samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Chart 16: Okun’s Law Annual change in unemployment rate (percentage points)  4 1972-2009  3  2010-2018  2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -6  -4  -2  0  2  4  6  8  Calendar year GDP growth (per cent) Sources: ONS and Bank of England calculations. Notes: Chart shows calendar year GDP growth plotted against annual percentage point change in calendar year average unemployment rate. A different way still of illustrating, and explaining, these developments comes from looking at job moves. As the crisis struck, job-to-job movements fell. Instead of moving between jobs, workers instead transitioned into unemployment. But these transition rates into unemployment rose by less than in previous recessions. Workers and their employers bargained to remain on the jobs ladder rather than jumping-off. Remaining on the ladder did, however, come at a cost in terms of pay. For workers staying in the same job this meant accepting pay freezes, with the fraction of workers accepting these rising sharply during the crisis (Chart 17a). For workers moving, this meant moving down the jobs ladder by accepting lower-paying jobs at lower-productivity firms: the fraction of switchers taking pay cuts spiked during the crisis (Chart 17b). Median wage growth for switchers fell from over 9% in 2007 to 4 ½% by 2010 (Chart 18).

A decade ago, central banks were the only game in town and monetary medicine was the right prescription. A decade on, the game has changed and so too might the policy prescription needed in dealing with any downturn. When the challenges, as well as the huge opportunities, lie on the supply-side of the economy, the right medical prescription is fiscal and structural policies. Super-charging the supply-side of the economy is what is now needed. That is every bit as true here in Scunthorpe as it is elsewhere across the UK. 32 33  See https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/ and Bloom et al (2017) for information about the DMP dataset. Economically active individuals aged 16-30 as a share of economically active population. 33  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  33  References Abel, W, Tenreyro, S and Thwaites, G (2018), ‘Monopsony in the UK’, 10 October 2018, available online. Allen, F and Gale, D (2000), “Financial Contagion”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 108, No. 1, pp. 1- 33. Autor, D (2014), ‘Education, and the Rise of Earnings Inequality Among the “Other 99 Percent”, Science, 23 May 2014, pp. 843-851. Autor, D (2017), ‘Economic and political consequences of China’s rise for the United States: lessons from the China shock’, IFS Annual Lecture 2017, 22 June 2017. Baldwin, R (2016), The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization, Harvard University Press. Bernard, A, Van Beveren, I and Vandenbussche, H (2014), ‘Multi-product exporters and the margins of trade’, The Japanese Economic Review, Vol. 65, No. 2, pp. 142-157.
The government has a direct interest in an efficient insolvency and resolution framework So the stakes are still high for the government in a banking crisis. While owners have little to lose when capital is low, and many creditors are protected by the deposit insurance, the state – and the whole economy in the end - may at worse suffer enormous losses. Therefore, unlike the situation in ordinary companies, the lack of an efficient insolvency regime will not primarily be a creditor problem only, but a problem which will fall right into the government’s lap. And if the insolvency framework is not efficient and cost effective, it may be rational for the government to intervene beyond the ordinary regulatory framework. If there is no other way to deal with the problem, it may even be rational to contribute capital directly. This may be the case even if such an investment cannot be justified on the basis of a corporate capital investment appraisal. The alternative of not intervening may simply be very much more expensive. Now, if this intervention by the government makes the owners and creditors better off than they would have been otherwise, the rules of the game change completely. If owners and creditors can speculate on a bail-out, market discipline will be eroded. Clearly, this needs to be avoided. And the conclusion is that, if anything, it is even more necessary to have effective and efficient insolvency and resolution frameworks for banks than for companies in general.

Although the size of the market may seem modest by global standards, the sukuk market has been registering an impressive average growth of 40 per cent per annum. The phenomenal demand has been spurred by the high levels of surplus savings and reserves in Asia and Gulf regions. Asia has a savings rate which is higher than any other region in the world and is expected to remain between 30 and 40 per cent of GDP for many years to come. The sukuk market brings with it many benefits to both issuers and investors. Issuers can benefit from the huge increase in liquidity in the Islamic world, and can tap on these new sources of funds. Raising funding from the Islamic bond market in the current environment has been 10 to 20 basis points lower than mainstream bonds. An increased number of multilateral agencies are issuing sukuks to finance development projects. In addition, both government agencies and the corporate sector have considered the sukuk market as an attractive source of financing. From the investor perspective, there are the benefits of diversification. In a sukuk issue in 2005, 48 per cent of the issuance were subscribed by conventional-based investors. This increased appetite for sukuk reinforced by excess liquidity in the global financial system is part of the reasons sukuks are attractively priced for issuers. Extending the linkages to other parts of the world The emergence of Islamic financial products, in particular, in the capital market has also promoted greater global financial integration.
Higher interest rates should help shift priority to the investment projects that are the most profitable and economical. This is the best way to foster increased productivity. The aftereffects of the 1970s - when inflation had finally been subdued - provide a good object lesson as well. Many companies had grown accustomed to negative real rates;  5/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  too many investments had been undertaken on the assumption that real rates were negative and would remain so. This led to a painful adjustment when inflation subsided and real rates turned positive, and many firms - even some large ones - folded as a result. All of this points in the same direction: it is of paramount importance to take the reins firmly and bring inflation down before it starts to distort the economy. Honoured guests: The Central Bank's interest rate hikes have caused a marked increase in monthly debt service on non-indexed, variable-rate loans. Furthermore, fixed-rate clauses on many borrowers' loan agreements will expire this coming winter. A decisive response is needed, but first we must diagnose the problem. To start with, it is clear that there are few casualties in the real estate market - as yet. Those who have financed home purchases with nominal-rate loans in the past three years have profited on higher property prices and negative real rates. At the same time, wages have risen significantly overall.

5  See The Nation’s Report Card, http://nationsreportcard.gov. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  I would argue that an additional factor favors Texas: We have a Legislature that under both Democratic and Republican governors has over time deliberately crafted laws and regulations, and tax and spending regimes, encouraging business formation and job creation. Just last month, Fairfield, Calif.-based vehicle reseller Copart Inc. announced that it will move its headquarters to Texas, citing “greater operational efficiencies.”6 The CEO for the owner of Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr. restaurants, Andy Puzder, claims it takes six months to two years to secure permits in California to build a new Carl’s Jr., whereas in Texas, it takes six weeks. These two anecdotes from California alone clearly illustrate that firms and jobs will go to where it is easiest to do business – not where it is less convenient and more costly. Both state and federal authorities need to bear this in mind as they plot changes in the fiscal and regulatory policy needed to restore the job-creating engine of America. As an official of the Federal Reserve charged with making monetary policy for the country as a whole, I am constantly mindful that investment and job-creating capital is free to roam not only within the United States, but to any place on earth where it will earn the best risk-adjusted return.
The officers responsible for supervision will naturally be more conservative than those promoting the financial sector. Managed well, this tension is constructive. Officers must continue to speak up and express their views, even though they may sometimes be overruled. With this approach to regulation, it is imperative for MAS to foster closer cooperation with the industry. We have made a serious effort to build a constructive exchange and dialogue with the private sector. We must continue to strengthen this culture of openness. Central bankers must treat some matters with the utmost discretion, to be discussed only in hushed tones among a select priesthood. But we cannot do all our business this way. In our day-to-day dealings with the financial institutions, we have to be constantly willing to explain the rationale for decisions and policies. At the same time, we must listen to proposals and ideas from the industry and feedback. As we continue to liberalise, we will need inputs from industry participants on many issues. We have to understand the industry’s point of view, and yet not be captured by the industry we are regulating. This mindset must permeate the whole of MAS, to every staff member. 5. Industry specific issues  Banks The first priority for banks is to upgrade their capabilities and strengthen their management teams. This is the only way for them to hold their own in the new environment, either by themselves or linked up with others in a strategic alliance or merger.

To step back, the Federal Reserve’s set of unconventional monetary policies has consisted of three major components: •  Forward guidance with respect to the path of the federal funds rate target. •  Large-scale asset purchases of longer-term Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). 1  However, it is important to note that some of those interventions did indeed result in tighter limits on the central bank’s authority as a lender of last resort. For example, the Fed’s scope to provide liquidity to troubled firms in unusual and exigent circumstances – under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Ac – was curtailed somewhat by the Dodd-Frank Act. This underscores the fact that central bank actions can have consequences with respect to independence. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  •  A maturity extension program in which shorter-dated Treasuries were sold and the proceeds used to purchase longer-dated Treasuries. With respect to forward guidance, it is important to distinguish between two specific forms that this guidance may take. In the first form the central bank provides its forecast for the future path of the policy rate and, possibly, some sense of the degree of uncertainty around this path. In the second, the central bank pre-commits to a specific future path for its policy rate.
FEN leverages its members’ expertise and resources to coordinate, co-operate, and collectively drive efforts to promote effective delivery of financial education initiatives to Malaysians under the National Strategy for Financial Literacy (2019 – 2023). 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

The ability to make retail payments reliable is crucial for the effectiveness of the financial system. As discussed earlier, we have come a long way in developing a reliable way of transacting electronically – through solutions such as credit cards, mobile transfers and prepaid balances. Central banks are now carefully monitoring newer developments, particularly digital currencies based on the use of a distributed ledger. Digital currencies have tended to be volatile and subject to speculative hoarding. This raises the potential for runs on the digital currency, triggered for instance by a loss of confidence in the currency itself or a third party provider like an exchange. This risk is likely to be augmented where the digital currency is not backed by an issuer, and where there is no lender of last resort function. If digital currencies are widely used, such a shock could have systemic repercussions. At the same time, some of these concerns may be addressed if the digital currencies used are issued by a central bank. Many policymakers are studying this option. In addition to facilitating payments, cash has been a powerful instrument for central banks to build trust and credibility with the public. The notes issued by central banks provide us with a direct and tangible link to the people – making it a key branding tool. Trust and confidence in the central bank are crucial for us to effectively deliver our mandate.
Case study 7: Judicious use of fiscal policies, based on inflation behavior and other macro-economic factors Mr. Chairman, I have so far discussed 6 case studies that confirm the co-operation and harmonization between the MoF and CB. The co-ordination however, went even further and was applied in several other situations as well. Now, I am going to describe one general  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  example out of several similar instances which took place from time to time, over the past few years. Let us take our minds back to October/November 2011. At that time, the global oil prices had soared to dizzy heights, and the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation was incurring rather heavy losses. As a natural response therefore, an increase in the administrated prices in petroleum products seemed like a sensible action. However, at that time, inflation in the country was around the 7% level. Inflation projections for the next 2 months too, were around the 7% to 8% levels. In that background, our view was that, if the petroleum prices were to be adjusted upwards significantly, the inflation figures would have risen above 10%, and had that happened, the favourable sentiments that had been built up carefully over the previous 33 months would have been badly damaged. Then, we would have had to start our inflation control efforts all over again, and inflation expectations too would have suffered considerably.

What perhaps is most relevant for today’s discussion is how the MLA has defined the Central Bank’s relationship with the Government. Towards that end, a careful examination of the MLA as well as John Exter’s “Report on the establishment of the Central Bank of Ceylon” in November 1949, (popularly called the Exter Report), will provide some useful insights as to the objectives and background of one of the most important pieces of legislation in our country. At this stage, a quick introduction of John Exter may also be relevant. John Exter was a senior official of the Federal Reserve System who was seconded for service in late 1948, to the Government of Ceylon by the US Government, to advise the Government of Ceylon about the organization and the functions of a Reserve Bank for Ceylon, and to frame proposals for a draft constitution for the Reserve Bank of Ceylon. Exter who was a brilliant banker and scholar, fulfilled his mission and was thereafter appointed as the first Governor of the Central Bank of Ceylon in 1950. John Exter’s Report, now serves as the most important  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  and authoritative reference for Central Bankers in Sri Lanka, and is referred to often by academics and practitioners of Central Banking, whenever a clarification is required on any issue relating to central banking in Sri Lanka. Getting back to our topic, what does this analysis of the MLA reveal?
In addition, the strong Swiss franc continues to weigh on some industries. Momentum in the labour market reflects this mixed picture. Although the situation continues to improve, the pace is only moderate. Seasonally adjusted unemployment has again receded slightly in the past three months. Companies are nevertheless still cautious about taking on new staff. For 2017, we continue to expect growth of roughly 1.5%. Exchange rates, interest rates and inflation expectations  I will now review changes to monetary conditions since the beginning of the year. The trade-weighted nominal exchange rate for the Swiss franc has remained stable overall in the last six months. In the run-up to the French presidential election, there were episodes of increased upward pressure. After the decision in France, the franc again weakened somewhat against the euro. By contrast, it appreciated slightly against the dollar. In real terms, the franc has virtually remained unchanged on a trade-weighted basis over the last half-year and is still significantly overvalued. Interest rates in Switzerland have remained virtually unchanged in recent months. The interest rate differential to the euro area has remained stable as well. Short-term rates in the US, on the other hand, have risen slightly, reflecting the tightening of monetary policy there. Inflation expectations for Switzerland have increased somewhat over the past half-year. Households, companies and financial analysts are now expecting an inflation rate of just above zero, also for the short term. In the longer term, meanwhile, expectations are around 1%.

Or (as in the MPC’s May 2022 monetary policy summary) entertain dissenting views not just on votes on Bank Rate but also on the communication reflected in the summary. 16. For a discussion of these risks and their potential consequences in a previous interest rate cycle, see Pill (2019). Page 13 17. See Bank Rate increased to 1.25%, Bank of England, 16 June 2022. 18. The views expressed in this speech are not necessarily those of the Bank of England or the Monetary Policy Committee. I would particularly like to thank Saba Alam and Nick Bate for their help in preparing the speech. I have also received helpful comments from Andrew Bailey, Tom Belsham, Ben Broadbent, Fabrizio Cadamagnani, Alan Castle, Andrew Hauser, Neil Kisserli, Catherine L Mann, Nick McLaren, Dave Ramsden, Michael Saunders, Fergal Shortall and Silvana Tenreyro, for which I am most grateful. The responsibility for all remaining errors is my own. Returning inflation to target - slides
Prudential measures applied since the 1990s have been successful in containing the build up of such financial imbalances, thus reducing the risk to financial stability. The world going forward is likely to continue to be affected by financial crisis. History has shown that there have been more than a hundred distinct banking crises in these two recent decades. The prospect of surviving such a crisis is not only about building resilience but also having the capacity to manage it. The institutional arrangements for financial stability continue to be a key area of debate. The main issues have tended to centre on the role of the central bank in financial stability, and whether there should be a single or multiple supervisory authorities. Given that the central bank is the lender-of-last-resort, the central bank is invariably in the frontline of the actions to restore stability. While there is no general agreement on the optimal structure for the supervision function, it is recognised that financial systems have become increasingly complex and interconnected. Whether a country adopts an integrated model or a model that is organized along sectoral lines, effective coordination is critical to effectively safeguard financial stability. As the entity responsible for monetary policy, the Central Bank undertakes surveillance on macroeconomic conditions and in undertaking open money market operations and the management of international reserves, the Central Bank has direct contact with the financial markets.

BIS Review 18/2006  1  The other surprising feature of the current economic environment is the pattern of global imbalances, and the size and persistence of the U.S. current account deficit. As Alan Greenspan has explained, the greater dispersion in external imbalances can be seen as the inevitable result of fundamentally healthy changes in the world economy. As the world progresses toward increasingly integrated financial and goods markets, other things being equal, one might expect to see an increase in the number of countries with surpluses or deficits, and potentially larger surpluses and deficits, as flows of both financial assets and goods work to equalize desired saving and investment around the world. If one were confident that observed imbalances simply reflected a more efficient allocation of the world’s stock of saving to its most productive uses, that relative prices adjust freely in response to changing fundamentals and that economies are flexible and agile in adapting to those changes, then we might also reasonably expect these imbalances to resolve themselves through smooth and gradual adjustments in relative prices and flows of goods and services. These conditions do not fully exist today. We do not yet live in a world of perfect capital mobility, one in which savings move across borders to their most productive use without constraint in the form of capital controls or without distortions affecting the behavior of private actors.
Interest rates are changed more gradually with less impact on output than under a strict inflation target, and inflation is allowed to deviate from the target over a somewhat longer period. This is called flexible inflation targeting. (See for example Svensson (2000).) Flexible inflation targeting both provides the economy with a nominal anchor and contributes to smoothing fluctuations in output and employment. In the countries that normally figure in our comparisons, the responsibility for monetary policy has now been delegated to a central bank. The first and most widely known examples of independent central banks are the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve. The delegation of monetary policy decisions to an independent central bank also finds support in economic theory. It contributes to securing credibility, confidence and consistency because an independent central bank must adhere to its mandate. This increases the scope for monetary policy to contribute to stability. For a discussion of central bank independence, see Hylland (2000). The benefits of autonomy are related to the way in which it induces economic agents to look ahead when making decisions. They take into account economic policy as they expect it will be tomorrow and the day after. It is thus important that the authorities do not sow doubt, but on the contrary act in a predictable manner within a long-term framework. The authorities must be credible and inspire confidence. There must be consistency between the stated objectives of economic policy and what is actually done to achieve them.

Retail sales in November and December posted a slight decline compared with the corresponding period of 1995. Activity in the construction sector fell back in the fourth quarter and posted a sharp twelve-month drop. Employment levels varied little in industry, with the exception of the automobile sector, where they posted a further substantial decline. They remained stable in the market services and retail sectors, but fell sharply in the building industry. BIS Review 4/1997