samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Firstly, in order to unlock the long-run potential growth, well-established infrastructure will be one of the crucial pillars that will sow a seed of a healthy investment climate conducive for growth. Such that, infrastructure upgrade requires time, yet necessary. Investment in logistic areas including increasing road density, better railway system, modernized airports and seaports will all lead to the enhancement of both production and distribution processes whereby strengthening connectivity among members. Preeminently, concrete long-term plans on infrastructure projects are vital in order to attract large pool of regional savings to meet investment needs. A set-up of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank or AIIB comes at a right juncture to raise potential for infrastructure financing for the whole region. Also, governments’ clear focus on infrastructure upgrading will facilitate the growing cross-border trading activities. I am glad to see the continued cooperation between Thailand and other GMS members in linking our rail networks and roads in order to foster trade and investment interconnectedness among us. 12. Secondly, despite physical infrastructures in place, lack of innovative ideas to leverage on existing knowledge and technology could undermine the potential of the region. With this bottleneck, the economies may face limitation in sustaining their competitive advantage, which currently rely heavily on the exploitation of natural  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  endowments and support from the government.

I don't know whether or not this is a good comparison, but it is certainly a huge project. Starting on 1 January next year, almost 15 billion banknotes and 50 billion coins will be put into circulation. Up until 28 February the euro banknotes and coins and the old national ones can be used parallel to one another, but with effect from 1 March the euro, and only the euro, will be legal tender throughout the euro area. The changeover is not merely a question of replacing old banknotes and coins with new ones in euro; it also involves all manner of changes from parking meters and new values on stamps to converting prices and wages. The fact that the euro will soon make the transition from the electronic world to the more tangible world of physical notes and coins has a strong symbolic value for the political endeavour to bring the countries of Europe closer together. It will also make it easier to compare prices of goods and services across the entire spectrum throughout the euro area. It will be interesting to see how this contributes to reduced price differentials. Firms will need to consider their price-setting strategies and costs in the production and distribution chain. At the same time, it is important to emphasise that the major step in the economic integration process was taken back on 1 January 1999, when eleven countries irrevocably fixed their exchange rates and the euro began to be their currency.
The philosophy of prevention: assist banks to govern themselves In developing regulations and practices that help to prevent financial crisis, supervisors must not lose sight of the inherent self-interest that banks have to retain the public’s confidence by maintaining safe and sound operations. No responsible firm seeks to fail, and no responsible bank would willingly engage in practices that would cause the market to doubt its long-term viability. Consequently, our role as regulators is not to limit banks’ opportunities for growth and profit. Instead, it is to help banks to improve continuously their abilities to manage their businesses and their risks, thereby ensuring that, across the financial system, banks can maintain their financial health. At the same time, if we are to encourage responsible behavior, we must not create the illusion that we will rescue every institution that does not succeed. In this regard, you will recall Goethe’s view: "What government is the best? That which teaches us to govern ourselves." Similarly, one of the best ways for supervisors to carry out the duty of prevention is by developing regulatory structures that encourage banks and their managers to govern themselves and control their risks. I believe that three important elements in a supervisory structure can help to create such incentives and thereby promote stability. The first consists of the relatively new "risk-focused" approach to bank supervision that is being adopted in financial centers around the world. It embodies a forward-looking perspective focusing most heavily on the risks that each individual bank faces.

William J McDonough: The role of financial stability An address by Mr William J McDonough, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, at the XIII International Frankfurt Banking Evening, Frankfurt, Germany, 3 May 2001. *  *  *  Mayor Roth, President Duisenberg, and distinguished guests… It is an honor to address the thirteenth International Frankfurt Banking Evening in a setting so rich in history and tradition. I have been told that this stately building is more than just the busy town hall for a major European city, it is also an ever-present witness to culture and history, having hosted banquets and celebrations for almost six hundred years honoring coronations and the visits of Presidents and Prime Ministers. Indeed, it seems highly appropriate that our dinner this evening, which recognizes the importance of banking and finance to this distinguished city’s heritage, is being held here, so close to one of Europe’s most historic marketplaces. Since medieval times, merchants have traveled great distances to participate in Frankfurt’s many fairs and markets. The wealth that those markets produced no doubt assisted in the development of increasingly sophisticated financial institutions and a stock market as early as the 16th century, plus several of the most storied banking houses in history. Those institutions, in turn, contributed to Frankfurt’s ascent to prominence by financing additional trade and commerce here and abroad.
Fortunately, here we are not starting from scratch: a major step forward has been made thanks to the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU) programme, which was designed as a means of emerging from the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic with a dual objective of recovery and long-term strategic investment. At the moment, our priority is of course to ensure the complete success of the NGEU programme, and even to adjust it to the consequences of the Ukrainian shock. But it would be wise to think in two directions for the future:  We should not aim to turn one-off into recurrent, but into an available instrument. Not a new annual budget, but the capacity of a tool “at hand” that could be activated in the event of shocks, including asymmetric ones,  Page 7 of 9 affecting the EU: we would avoid the spectre of a "European Transfer Union" so feared in Germany, in favour of a capacity that could benefit all.  In terms of objectives, our first economic need is that of economic stabilisation, and therefore of an instrument to be activated at the low point of the cycle. But political consensus could probably only be reached around strategic investments in climate transition, innovation or defence. For the moment, Europe is betting, as NGEU has done, on a form of constructive ambiguity between these two goals: it seems advisable, as we move forward, to better clarify the way in which they are articulated .

This would make it possible to bring the debt ratio down by about fifteen points over ten years. The point here is not to call for a general cut in spending, but rather a slower increase in spending: this is far from the famous "austerity" that we French people are so keen to criticise without ever having experienced it. This would be fully compatible with the functioning of automatic stabilisers, to take account of the economic situation. Of course,this implies no further tax cuts, which we can hardly afford to finance. Page 4 of 9 The Cour des Comptes stated it loud and clear, and rightly so:ii we must therefore stop indefinitely postponing fiscal consolidation. It is not an arbitrary question of threshold or narrow-minded ideology. Our solidarity with future generations is at stake: we do not have the moral right to leave them, in addition to a climate debt that so rightly worries them, a financial debt whose share of GDP has already almost doubled in 20 years. And our political credibility in Europe is also at stake, as well as our ability to inspire lasting confidence in investors. If any doubts as to the sustainability of the French debt were to arise, we could always borrow, but the financial conditions would be different: take a look around, including at several of our European neighbours. And this brings me to the second illusion, that of cost-free debt. 2.
Since inflation targeting was introduced in Norway, inflation has been close to, but on average somewhat below, the target of 2.5 percent. Inflation has consistently remained within a band where the deviations from the target cannot be said to have entailed significant economic costs. Norges Bank Economic perspectives 15 february 2018  As mentioned, the importance of financial markets and financial stability was underestimated before the crisis – also by central banks. The financial crisis revealed how harmful financial imbalances can be. Monetary policy can in given situations take account of the risk of a build-up of financial imbalances. But monetary policy cannot take primary responsibility for heading off a gathering storm. This has been of little concern among the major central banks. Their focus has been on counteracting a deeper and more prolonged downturn and on preventing deflation. In countries that were less affected by the crisis, more attention has been devoted to financial stability considerations. In high-tech, global financial markets, capital moves rapidly between different currencies. At trading desks in the City of London geographical distances vanish. A wide interest rate differential could have a substantial impact on the exchange rate, with repercussions on inflation, output and employment. This is why low interest rates in large economies that were severely hit by the financial crisis quickly led to lower rates in countries where the cyclical situation, in isolation, would have implied higher rates. This was the case in Norway until oil prices fell. Other small open economies have been in the same situation.

Economic perspectives Address by Governor Øystein Olsen to the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank and invited guests on Thursday 15 February 2018  Analyses and charts are based on information up to and including 9 February 2018  Thursday 15 february 2018  Economic perspectives 2017  Norges Bank Economic perspectives 15 february 2018  Introduction “All things will pass, even a crisis. After the darkness comes the dawn.”1 With these words, former central bank governor Nicolai Rygg summarised the turning point in the 1930s. The advanced economies have emerged from another challenging period. Ten years ago the world economy was hit by a shock and thrown into the deepest recession since the 1930s (Chart 1). Chart 1 Economic growth following the financial crisis. GDP per capita. Index. Value in year recession started = 100 120  120  Euro area (2007=100) US (2007=100) Previous recessions 1)  110  110  100  100  90  90  80  80 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1  0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  Number of years before and after recession 1) The first year of a recession is defined as a year where per capita GDP growth turns negative. Previous recessions are defined as the median of all recessions in the period 1920 – 2002, based on the Jordà−Schularick−Taylor Macrohistory Database. The database covers 17 countries.
Four factors seem to have been especially significant: •  At the beginning of the period with an inflation target, particularly in 1996, the CPI was affected considerably by the dramatic decline in interest rates that ensued when the credibility of the new regime was established. •  On a couple of occasions in the past years, rapid rises in energy prices in particular, but also in food prices, have pushed up inflation. The rises were essentially related to supply factors, such as water shortages in hydroelectric power companies’ reservoirs. The effects were judged to be temporary, which also proved to be the case. •  During certain periods, not least recently but also in the latter part of the 1990s, imported inflation has been unexpectedly low. •  At the end of the 1990s and the beginning of this decade, productivity growth has been unexpectedly robust. It is interesting to note that during several periods when inflation was below target, monetary policy was clearly loose at the same time as GDP growth was high. But in spite of this, inflation has been too low. What has happened above all is that unexpected supply changes have dampened inflation. This has been a global phenomenon to a large extent; in other words, a situation that we have shared with other countries.

Cloud computing and the use of third party services also have the potential to undermine firewalls. Putting a balance to the needs of various parties would be a challenging task. As information technology grows, so do the capabilities of cyber criminals. These criminals have a wide range of tools to execute cyber attacks, many of which are easily obtainable and relatively inexpensive to procure. For example, cyber criminals can now control networks of compromised computers through “botnets” that enable anonymity. This access can be bought or rented online. In the hands of criminal or organisations that are determined to  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  disrupt national stability, botnets could be used to steal sensitive data or disrupt access to critical national infrastructure. Industry players, security firms and financial supervisors may easily find themselves in a cat and mouse game, where the ability to attack constantly outpaces the ability to defend. These challenges demand a stronger and forceful response by all parties. Recent global regulatory reforms, such as the Basel III capital adequacy and liquidity rules, have tended to focus on financial risks. There has been much less focus on technology and cyber security risks despite the real systemic threats that they pose. So far, no financial institutions in this region have encountered an attack, severe enough to disrupt its critical services or cause material losses, but we cannot leave this to chance.
It slopes downwards because – all else equal – the willingness of the private sector to hold reserves is meant to decline as the yield on competing assets like bonds goes up. And when the central bank buys bonds, paying for them with newly-created reserves (shifting the Ms line to the right), their yields therefore decline. In “equilibrium”, for those extra reserves to be willingly held, the competing assets have to become relatively less attractive – hence the decline in yields. Another, perhaps more intuitive, way to think about the effect is that purchasing government bonds directly raises their price (this is the same as a decline in yields). Monetary expansions of this sort therefore raise the supply of central bank reserves, simultaneously lower the level of interest rates and bond yields and, depending on the slope of the “IS” curve, boost demand and subsequently inflation[6]. Page 12  Chart 7: Open-market asset purchases by the central bank raise the supply of reserves and push down interest rates  ‘M’ is real money balances and ‘r’ the real interest rate. This model describes the equilibrium in the money market between supply of and demand for money balances, according to Keynes’ theory of liquidity preference. It underpins the LM curve. The IS-LM model can be a useful way of thinking about monetary policy, and in particular QE. Chart 7 does have its drawbacks, however, or at least some important oversimplifications.

The External Consultative Committee includes representatives from international payment and settlement mechanisms (such as S.W.I.F.T., Euroclear, Cedel, and VISA), from international financial market associations (such as the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, the International Institute of Finance, and the Global 2000 Coordinating Group), from multilateral organizations (such as the IMF, OECD, and World Bank), from the financial rating agencies (such as Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s), and from a number of other international organizations (such as the International Telecommunications Union, Reuters, the International Federation of Accountants, and the International Chamber of Commerce). This diversity of perspectives led to an extremely valuable discussion with the Joint Year 2000 Council and stimulated work on several projects to be taken forward with input from both the public and private sectors, for example, the initiatives on Y2K testing and self-assessment that I will describe shortly. Further sessions with the External Consultative Committee are planned on a quarterly basis. It is important at the outset for me to be clear that the Joint Year 2000 Council is not intended to become a global Y2K regulatory authority, with sweeping powers to coordinate international action or to take responsibility for ensuring Y2K readiness in every financial market worldwide. Through our ability to serve as a clearinghouse for Y2K information, however, I believe that the Joint Year 2000 Council will play a positive role in three areas: (1) raising awareness, (2) improving preparedness, and (3) contingency planning.
It was, of course, difficult for the authorities in Thailand and elsewhere in the region to recognize, after so many years of outstanding macroeconomic performance, that serious underlying deficiencies could seriously jeopardize their track record. This certainly contributed to the delay in taking the necessary corrective action. And at last, in the absence of convincing policy action, the storm broke. We all have been troubled by developments in the Thai economy, both because they have been so costly for Thailand and its neighbors and because they were so preventable. But at least their origins are by and large clear. What is less evident, and therefore more unsettling to all who are trying to make sense of broader regional developments, is how the crisis spread as it did to economies such as Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, where current account deficits were generally smaller and foreign direct investment more substantial. Although it may be some time yet before we have the complete answer to this question, some elements of the explanation are becoming clear. Part of the explanation lies in the extent to which developments in Thailand have affected conditions in neighboring countries. For example, in expectation that the depreciation of the baht would erode the competitiveness of Thailand’s trade competitors, their currencies also weakened. And as these currency slides acquired an almost self-perpetuating character, the debt service costs of the domestic private sector increased.

Øystein Olsen: Ensuring financial stability in turbulent times Speech by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the Finance Norway conference, Oslo, 12 April 2011. The text below may differ from the actual presentation. This speech does not contain assessments of the economic situation or current interest rate setting. *  *  *  Introduction The experience of the past few years has clearly shown the cost of financial instability. The near seizure of the financial system in autumn 2008 gave rise to the most severe economic downturn of our time. There was a dramatic decline in international trade and in 2009 world GDP decreased for the first time in generations. Economic policy was used actively in most countries to curb the economic downturn. Substantial resources were deployed in the form of stimulus packages and measures to prevent financial market collapse. Nonetheless, unemployment in the OECD area rose by 15 million in the first year after the outbreak of the crisis. The downturn also led to a sharp fall in tax revenues. Budget deficits ballooned and government debt rose rapidly. Global economic growth has recovered, but the effects of the financial crisis are still evident and will continue to be for some time yet. Unemployment is still high and the current situation and prospects for several countries bear evidence of strained government finances.
Chart 7: MMF outflows and assets  Chart 8: Sterling money market spreads Overnight reverse repo - Bank rate spread 3-month reverse repo-OIS spread 3-month £ spread Basis points  Daily flow (RHS) Assets under management (LHS)  £ bn 270  Per cent  ‘Dash for cash’  4  24 Mar: CTRF announced  100 19 Mar: Further BoE package  3  260  2 250  24 Mar: CTRF announced 31 Mar: Quarter-end  80 60  1 240  40  0 230  220  210 Mar 20  -1  20  -2  0  -3 Apr 20  May 20  Sources: Crane Data LLC and Bank calculations  -20 Jan 20  Feb 20  Mar 20  Apr 20  May 20  Source: Bank of England Sterling Money Market data collection and Bank calculations. Overnight rate for cleared Delivery by Value transactions; 3-month repo rate uses only transactions estimated to be non-nettable under leverage ratio rules. Both rates volume-weighted and stated from perspective of dealers. Two key sets of policy actions helped to ease pressure on money market rates. First, the MPC’s decision on 19 March to buy gilts in large size – coupled with similar policy actions by other central banks – helped stabilise broader markets, reducing the incidence of margin calls, and triggering renewed inflows into MMFs and the money markets more generally.

John C Williams: The economic recovery - are we there yet? Remarks (via videoconference) by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Women in Housing and Finance 2021 Annual Symposium, 4 May 2021. * * * As prepared for delivery Hello, everyone. I’m pleased to join you today. While virtual meetings like these do have some benefits—I haven’t gotten stuck in Midtown Manhattan traffic or experienced a flight delay in over a year—I know we are all looking forward to meeting again in person when it’s safe to do so. During this pandemic, we have now made an entire trip around the sun, and then some. The events since March of last year have been devastating on many levels. The ongoing human toll is a tragedy we will never forget. The shutdown of a wide range of everyday economic and social interactions posed tremendous challenges to families, businesses, and communities. And this extraordinary public health crisis has also had profound economic consequences across the globe. Of course, we continue to be affected by the pandemic in so many ways. But if you look out your window today, the view is very different than it was a year ago. Now, more than half of American adults have received at least one vaccine dose, and millions more are receiving vaccines every week.