samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The balance between exports and imports of goods and services has been consistently negative over the past decade, averaging 8% of GDP. While in past these deficits have been made good through inflows of capital from abroad, there is no guarantee that external imbalances on this scale can persist without posing a serious threat to the country’s external reserves and, ultimately, to the Maltese lira. And may I at this point remind you that the low and predictable inflation we have experienced in recent years is largely attributable to the pegged exchange rate regime. This has also significantly reduced pricing risks for exporters and investors. It should, therefore, be clear that undue and sustained pressure on the reserves would evoke a monetary policy response which would have pervasive repercussions. There is no doubt that a primary factor behind these macroeconomic imbalances is the state of public finances. Malta’s fiscal performance over the past decade has not been rigorously consistent with its intended objectives. Fiscal consolidation efforts based mainly on increasing taxation brought the deficit down from around 11% of GDP in 1998 to between 6% and 7% of GDP in the past three years. It is, however, clear that further attempts at consolidation, particularly in a weak growth environment, will have to focus on expenditure cutting. The Irish experience during the 1980s is most telling. The first half of the decade was characterised by increasing taxation, which often had to be followed by higher expenditure to satisfy economic, political and social demands.

In any event, you need to be rather confident that the potential tensions are indeed likely to be minor, or at least short-lived, because, if they do turn out to be serious, then you could be stuck either with a weak Euro - and more rather than less inflation, higher rather than lower interest rates over the medium-term, and exchange rate instability against outside currencies - or, if the European central bank is allowed to do its job in accordance with its statutes, you could be stuck with persistent stagnation and unemployment across the economically weaker parts of the Euro-area. It’s not enough, it seems to me, to shrug one’s shoulders and say “well, that’s what happens now anyway within individual countries”; at least within individual countries there are alternative adjustment mechanisms, in the form of labour mobility and fiscal redistribution, to moderate the tensions, which will be much less effective within the Euro-area. The architects of the Maastricht Treaty clearly knew all about the Beast, and they evidently shared my scepticism about it turning naturally into Prince Charming. The famous convergence criteria are there precisely in order to reduce the risks of tensions emerging after the start of the Euro. One can argue about how far they do in fact reduce the risks. But it would be a reckless gamble to charge ahead if even those criteria were not met - sustainably, and in substance rather than just in form. So there needs to be a serious debate.
·  Second, the New Accord will recognise that some banks treat their smallest business credits as retail exposures. In these cases, banks group and administer their small business loans on a “pooled basis,” similar to the way they manage most small personal loans. The New Accord will permit aggregate exposures to a single business borrower of up to € million to be treated as retail exposures. Because retail exposures enjoy a preferential treatment under both the standardised (reduction of risk weights by 25 percentage points, from 100% to 75%) and IRB (a different risk-weight curve) approaches to credit risk, banks making such loans may face lower capital requirements than are currently applicable. Moreover, for those who have monitored our work closely, the Committee recently eliminated a controversial requirement governing the “granularity” of such loans. In plain language, the rules will no longer require that retail portfolios contain exposures to a minimum number of unrelated parties. Instead, national supervisors will determine whether such portfolios qualify for retail treatment. Although the media has not reported on this change widely, it is quite important because it will help more banks to enjoy the preferential retail treatment for their smallest business credits. 2  BIS Review 32/2003  ·  Finally, the New Accord will recognise a far wider range of collateral and guarantees than the current rules do.

From the very moment that a loan is granted, and before any impairment on this specific loan appears, there is a positive default probability (no matter how low it might be) following a statistical distribution with an expected loss. The expected loss is known in a statistical sense but not yet identified in a specific loan operation or borrower. As the risk appears at the beginning of the operation, so does the statistical provision requirement. With this system, provisions run in parallel to revenues and are therefore distributed through the cycle allowing for a better mapping between income and costs in the profit and loss account. The statistical provision that we have established works in practice as an addition to the “old” existing provisions: when “old” provisions are well below expected losses, the “new” dynamic provision is added. In good years the net “specific” provisions are very low (or even negative, if there are substantial recoveries), so the new provision accumulates. But in bad years the “specific” provisions increase sharply, eventually exceeding the gross burden of the statistical provision. The net result is that with this system provisions are distributed over the cycle, providing a better recognition of expected losses. More specifically, the amount of the statistical provision is the difference between the measure of latent risk (i.e. expected losses) and the specific provision (that covering impaired assets). In good times the specific provision is low and the statistical provision is positive.
BIS Review 51/2010  5  If we take this new scenario as given, we then have to look at how, under those new conditions, entrepreneurs can get sufficient financing to see their projects through. This challenge is even more crucial in countries like Spain, where bank financing has much more weight than the alternative sources provided by the stock market, today only accessible to a small number of large companies. Our efforts are now concentrated on how to exit the crisis and on avoiding a repeat experience, but we should also be thinking of how to stimulate economic growth under the new regulatory framework. The global agenda of structural reform should include this challenge of how to encourage high-risk business financing by banks which will inevitably be much more risk-averse than in the past and will find it difficult to hold large sums of risky investments on their balance sheets. Hence the new financial system which emerges from the crisis should also offer alternative non-bank financing to new entrepreneurs and mediumsized firms. Such alternatives sources of financing scarcely exist today, so all of us (credit institutions, governments, regulators and non-financial corporations) will have to contribute our intellectual and other efforts to address a problem which is not significant today but will undoubtedly be so in the future. Thank you. 6  BIS Review 51/2010

They have no connection at all to money. They may have extrinsic value – you may like to collect them for instance, and as such they are a highly risky investment opportunity. Their value can fluctuate quite wildly, unsurprisingly. They strike me as unsuited to the world of payments, where certainty of value matters. The next innovation is alternative payments such as e-money, which in Europe has grown under the auspices of the Second Electronic Money Directive (EMD2) and the Second Payment Services Directive (PSD2). To be clear, this has been translated into the UK as part of the on-shoring of EU law in the context of Brexit. This regime creates something which is more money-like in the sense of commercial bank money, but doesn’t have the same direct link to fiat money, and the safeguarding regime does not have all the features of deposit protection. It is therefore a hybrid. We must ensure that users fully understand the difference in protection, and I suspect at the moment that is not widely the case. The standards are less developed than those for banks, there is no depositor protection scheme, and firms are subject to only limited capital and liquidity requirements. Finally, there is no resolution or administration regime. This means that if firm failed, holders of its ‘money’ would be forced to pursue any recovery through a corporate insolvency procedure, which would neither be quick nor guarantee their funds back. The third innovation, and the one on which I will focus more, is so-called stablecoins.
Christian Noyer: Is the euro a success story? Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, at the First French-Indian Financial Forum, Paris EUROPLACE, Mumbai, 16 May 2007. *  *  *  It is a great pleasure for me to be here today and to have the opportunity to address such a distinguished audience. I want to talk to you about a success story: the euro. As you well know, there have been difficult times for the European integration. The Treaty creating a Constitution for Europe was not ratified in 2005 and the future of political integration is still fraught with uncertainties. Also, much remains to be done, in terms of structural reform, if the European countries want to achieve the same level of long term growth as other developed economies. Nevertheless, I feel very optimistic. And the reason for this optimism is the euro. The single currency has demonstrated its potential to bring enormous benefits to European nations, which they can use to achieve a high degree of stability and prosperity. 1)  What are those benefits? The first, and most obvious, is price stability. Over the last years, inflation has stayed broadly in line with the price stability objective set by the European Central Bank, i.e. inflation below but close to 2% over the medium-term. Gone are the days when European citizens had to worry about the purchasing power of their savings. This stability goes beyond the behaviour of prices.

But, as a French and European citizen, I cannot help and feel proud of having one the two main currencies in the world. In sum, benefits of the euro include a high degree of credibility of monetary policy reflected in the level of long-term interest rates; diminished exchange rate volatility; completion of the single market and encouragement to cross-border trade. None of this, of course, can be taken for granted. Benign conditions currently prevailing on financial markets can be reversed. Shocks may be coming, which would impact negatively European economies. Despite some signs of cooling, imbalances are still building up, especially in the housing sector, fuelled by a dynamic expansion of credit, although in no way comparable to those in some other developed economies. But I have the strong conviction that we are fully equipped to deal with any contingency, and, provided the necessary structural reforms are undertaken, keep the economy on a path of growth and stability. BIS Review 51/2007  1  2)  How have those successes been achieved? A lot comes, in my view, from the institutional and operational framework in which monetary policy is developed and implemented. The independence of the ECB and of the 13 participating NCBs is enshrined in the Treaty. They are institutionally, operationally and financially independent from European Community institutions and national governments. We have a clear and transparent definition of price stability: inflation below but close to 2% over the medium-term. The monetary policy framework of the Eurosystem is “medium-term” oriented.
For these assessments, we augment input from our research departments with critical information about local economic conditions supplied by our boards of directors, regional advisory councils and conversations with local stakeholders. You may know that one of my councils, the Upstate New York Regional Advisory Board, is designed specifically to provide me with timely information from this area. In this way, decisions by the FOMC are continually informed by views gathered from all parts of the country, including Upstate New York. One thing that makes my job even more interesting is that New York has some roles unique within the Fed. Let me tell you about some of them. We, alone, implement monetary policy. At the direction of the FOMC, we buy and sell Treasury securities. We are also the eyes and ears of the Fed on Wall Street, and we supervise many of the largest financial institutions in  BIS Review 141/2010  1  the country. We operate Fedwire® – the conduit for large money transfers between banks. And, we provide banking services to the U.S. Treasury, and central banks and governments from around the world. Finally, I must mention that the New York Fed’s district could be the most diverse in the System: ranging from the urban density of Manhattan to the forested sparseness of the northern Adirondacks, to the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. All in all, there is a lot to keep my colleagues and me quite busy – even in normal times.

Along with two other agencies, the Fed is reviewing the foreclosure practices at the major bank mortgage servicers. We are also keeping an eye on banks’ potential liabilities where they made representations about mortgages bought by investors that may not have been correct in all cases. We want to ensure that the housing finance business is supported by robust back-office operations – for processing of new mortgages as well as foreclosures – so that homebuyers and investors have full confidence in the process. We are monitoring developments closely in order to evaluate any potential impact on housing or financial markets and the overall economy. Economic conditions in Upstate New York Now let me turn to economic conditions in Upstate New York. It is no secret that this region has struggled with weak economic growth and population loss in recent decades. The region has experienced some very painful economic restructuring, particularly as it lost so many of its high-paying manufacturing jobs. Yet the process has yielded a productive and more diversified economy, with a larger service sector. For this and other reasons I will discuss, the Upstate New York economy has weathered the Great Recession relatively well. While the Upstate economy generally underperformed the nation during the 1980s and 1990s, its recent experience has been quite different. During the Great Recession, Upstate New York’s job losses began later than they did for the United States as a whole, and those losses were generally less severe.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  7. Here, it is worth noting that the three prerequisites for sustainable and equitable growth should be properly addressed. They are (1) social inclusion, (2) ecology and, (3) the stability of financial system. Any kind of disruption in any of these fundamentals can jeopardize sustainable and equitable growth. Thus, today, lessons that will be drawn from the development experiences of Thailand shall be focused on these three fundamentals. 8. Firstly, with regard to social inclusion, one obvious consideration is how to create opportunities for everyone to contribute to and benefit from economic growth. Therefore, we need to take into account the principle of equality of opportunity when planning and implementing the process of economic development. 9. To follow the principle of equality of opportunity, we need to ensure unbiased governance and regulatory environment for businesses and people. This is to remove or reduce arbitrary restrictions and to create “competitive neutrality”. A level playing field is the first and foremost step for the prevention of income inequality. 10. Although a fair playing field is important, it is, in itself, not enough to uphold the principle of equality of opportunity. By realizing that everyone is endowed with different capacity as well as is in different social and economic contexts, supportive policy adapted for each social group is needed. For instance, as in the case of Thailand, researches indicate that broadening financial access and promoting financial literacy has significantly raised the country’s growth rate.

Paul Fisher: Developments in financial markets, monetary and macroprudential policy Speech by Mr Paul Fisher, Executive Director for Markets of the Bank of England, at Richmond University, London, 25 September 2012. *  *  *  When I gave a speech about the state of financial markets in June 2011, I talked about a process of healing as markets recovered from the Great Recession.1 But since then the patient has not regained anything like a full state of health. In this lecture today, I want to offer a second opinion on the condition of financial markets. But also, as a member of both the Monetary Policy Committee and the Financial Policy Committee, I want to talk about aspects of the monetary and macroprudential policies which are part of the medicine. In particular I want to give some background to a recent initiative by the Bank of England and HM Treasury to revive the economy, the Funding for Lending Scheme. Financial markets have continued to be buffeted by global events over the past year. In particular, the sovereign crisis in the euro area became more acute. It suffered a serious lurch in mid-July 2011 when confidence in Italian politics evaporated and Italian and Spanish sovereign yields rocketed to record euro-era highs (Chart 1). What followed was alarming – a growing fragmentation of euro zone markets as participants positioned themselves to minimise risk in the event of euro break-up. And the story has become more focussed on Spain than Italy.
1  Daníel Svavarsson: International investment position: market valuation and the effects of external changes. Central Bank of Iceland: Monetary Bulletin 2008/1. BIS Review 52/2008  3  Focusing again on developments this year, the attention of the outside observer is easily arrested by the depreciation of the króna. I mentioned earlier that it was overvalued for a rather extended period to the extent that the Central Bank warned that it would at some stage have to depreciate. The depreciation came earlier and faster than we would have hoped, partly and perhaps most importantly because of the radical changes in global financial markets after the middle of last year and the associated reassessment of risk. These changes meant that the access of Icelandic banks to foreign financing was seriously curtailed. Additionally, questions were raised about the viability of the Icelandic economy in light of the large imbalances and all of this led to an erosion of confidence. Subsequently, the exchange rate depreciated significantly. By the end of March it had fallen to a historically low level in real terms, a level that was clearly below its long-term equilibrium value. The Central Bank responded to the developments in March by raising its policy rate by 125 basis points on Tuesday morning after Easter, followed by a further 50 basis points increase on April 10, bringing the policy rate to the 15.5% which I have already mentioned.

The liberalisation of the economy did not reduce its characteristic fluctuations. We are now coming to the end of a period of very rapid expansion. It started back in 2003 when construction commenced of a large aluminium smelter in the eastern part of the country and an associated power plant. The overall size of this investment was equivalent to over 30% of GDP in 2003, the year that construction started. It therefore gave a very large boost to the Icelandic economy. In the latter half of 2004, the Icelandic banks began to compete head on with the State Housing Finance Fund (HFF) which had traditionally been the main provider of mortgage loans to households. The banks’ entry into the market was no doubt the result of the HFF’s ambition to increase its market share in the provision of mortgage finance. The banks had normally provided only a limited share of mortgage finance. They were in that respect different from banks in many neighbouring countries which have traditionally provided mortgage loans and thus have a stable portfolio of such loans on their balance sheet. The entry of the banks into the market led to significant changes. Households could now borrow against collateral in their existing real estate, that is, they could take equity out of their investment. This they did with vigour. The overall result was that credit grew briskly, real estate prices rose rapidly and private consumption expanded sharply, leading to inflationary pressures and a widening current account deficit.
[12] Ernst & Young, 2019, “The Impact of Wider Integration of Data Analytics and Automation on  Manpower in the Singapore Financial Services Sector, commissioned by the Institute of Banking and Finance Singapore (IBF) and MAS” [13] Global Climate Risk Index 2020 (data from 1999 to 2018). [14] Median of 2.2% to 2.4% -2020 – Preqin Global Infrastructure Report 2020 [15] Swissre, 2010-2019, Protection Gap Tracker Map [16] Reuters, January 2020, “Green Bond Issuance Hit Record $ billion Last Year [17] OCED, April 2017, “Mobilising Bond Markets for a Low-Carbon Transition” [18] HSBC, November 2020, Asia’s Green Finance Booms  Related News Media Releases https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2021/riding-the-growth-momentum-in-asia  10/11  12/02/2021  "Riding the Growth Momentum in Asia" – Keynote Speech by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director (Markets & Development), …  Published Date: 10 December 2020  MAS Announces Winners of the 2020 Global FinTech Innovation Challenge Under the theme of “Building Resilience, Seizing Opportunities, Emerging Stronger”, three winners for the Global FinTech Hackcelerator and twelve winners for the FinTech Awards have been selected for their solutions that address the challenges faced by the financial industry due to the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change. Media Releases Published Date: 09 December 2020  Singapore and Hungary Strengthen Cooperation in FinTech MAS and the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) have signed a Co-operation Agreement to strengthen cooperation in FinTech innovation between Singapore and Hungary.

First, in reporting my views to the committee, I noted my concern for the fragility of the U.S. economy and weak job creation. It might be noted by the press here today that although I am constantly preoccupied with price stability – in the aviary of central bankers, I am known as a “hawk” on inflation – I did not voice concern for the prospect of inflationary pressures in the foreseeable future. Indeed, the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean analysis of the inflationary  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  developments in June indicated that the trimmed mean PCE turned in its softest reading of the year. The trimmed mean analysis we do at the Dallas Fed focuses on the price movements of personal consumption expenditures. It is an analysis that tracks the price movements of 178 items that people actually buy, such as beer, haircuts, shoe repair, food and energy prices. In June, the trimmed mean came in at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent, versus 2.1 percent for the first five months of the year. The 12-month rate was 1.5 percent. My concern is not with immediate inflationary pressures. Core producer prices are still increasing at a higher than desirable rate.