samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But as I mentioned earlier, my view is that given the down-turn in economic activity that is now becoming apparent it is difficult to see how the companies would be able to pass on increased costs. At our latest meeting, the price of oil had fallen from its peak level in July, and it has fallen further since then. Let me say a few words about developments on the financial markets. We are now seeing a new wave of unrest sweep across the international financial markets. This is nothing new but something we have had to live with for over a year now. From time to time it has appeared that things may have calmed down somewhat, only for the unrest to return in other forms. Over the last few days, major American investment banks and a number of other players have experienced acute problems. It is difficult to say at the moment where all this will end. We are of course following developments closely. So far, we can note that financial stability in Sweden is satisfactory. Swedish banks are only marginally involved as their exposure to the US market is limited. Nevertheless, the Swedish market is significantly affected by events on the international stage. The costs of borrowing are increasing and some financial markets are working less efficiently than normal. Yesterday, the National Debt Office, in consultation with the Riksbank, took steps to facilitate the functioning of the market. The National Debt Office will now issue short-term treasury bills in a number of extra auctions.

12 The General Bank Clearance Centre was established by the PBoC in December 1997 to help prevent financial risks and  maintain a stable payment order. The PBoC has also abolished credit quotas for working capital loans for all state-owned commercial banks since January 1998. Besides, in a banking conference held at that time, PBoC Governor Dai Xianglong highlighted four major banking reform directions, namely reorganizing the PBoC’s branch network, streamlining commercial bank operations, converting co-op banks into commercial banks and cleaning up non-performing loans. 13 Based on Goldman Sachs and World Bank’s studies, the estimated total worker compensation (i.e. wages plus social  security benefits) per week in the manufacturing sector in 1998 is $ for China, $ for Indonesia, $ for Malaysia, $ for the Philippines, $ for Thailand, $ for Korea and $ for Taiwan. BIS Review 19/1998  -5likely to be offset by higher inflation, higher costs of imports and higher interest rates. China has also established market leadership in a variety of products in world markets. It is difficult to see this dominant position being significantly eroded, particularly with the existence of international trade barriers which limit the extent of the possible shift of export orders from China to other Asian economies. 16. Fifth, the economic fundamentals of the Mainland of China are strong. Economic growth in 1998, forecasted to be 8% in real terms, is only a shade below the growth rate of 8.8% achieved in 1997. Furthermore, inflation is expected to be below 3%.
Maja Kadievska-Vojnovik: Prospects of the Macedonian economy in 2015 Address by Ms Maja Kadievska-Vojnovik, Vice-Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the panel discussion on the “Prospects of the Macedonian economy in 2015”, organized by “Finance Think”, Skopje, 22 December 2014. *  *  *  Many thanks to Ana Mitreska, Manager of the Monetary Policy and Research Department, who participated in the preparation for the panel discussion on the “Prospects of the Macedonian economy in 2015”. Macedonian economy is small and open, as evident from the high and growing share of exports and imports in GDP (in the last four years the openness increased by almost 20 percentage points, reaching high 105% of GDP in 2013). Given this feature, it is undoubtedly exposed to global developments, especially developments in Europe, which is our key trading partner to which we export over 70% of the Macedonian products. Economies of this kind, by definition, are economies that absorb the shocks from external environment, with relatively limited opportunities for influence. In fact, the decrease of economic activity in 2009 and in 2012 (about 0.5% in both years) showed that the real sector of the economy cannot remain immune to the adverse demand shocks arising from Europe. Also, an important structural feature of our economy is its high import dependence of the export sector and its high energy dependence.

Since 2010, the cumulative positive effect of these companies on the trade balance is about Euro 200 million, or 2.6% of GDP. This reduces the external vulnerability and improves the risk profile of the country and its foundations. The raised technological level, the increase in manpower, the improved access to capital, the spillover effects on domestic companies (which is already visible in our country), the absorption of the workforce, are also significant favorable effects. In the medium term more positive effects should be expected. The second key factor that significantly contributes to achieving solid rates of economic growth is the fiscal stimulus, through the increased number of investments in infrastructure projects. Large investments in road, rail and energy infrastructure are, on the one hand, an important impetus for growth in the short run, while on the other, they improve the competitiveness of the economy and contribute to the increase in the potential growth. The public sector share in the investments during the crisis has increased (from 20% in 2007 to 34% in 2010), offsetting the smaller investments from the private sector and providing positive stimulus for the economy. It is expected that Government’s announcements of infrastructure projects will continue to provide significant support for the growth in the medium term. What is also important is that the growth in recent years has created preconditions for improving the conditions in the labor market.
QUESTION from Reuters: Your press release allows for a gradual downgrade in the key rate. Is this to say that a 25 basis point reduction in future is the new normalcy? ELVIRA NABIULLINA: Thank you very much. It is true that we have decided on this magnitude of reduction – 25 percentage points after long time. A short while ago, I floated the idea of a smaller step as we transition progressively to a single-digit rate. This is understood to be standard practice when the key rate is below 10%. Yet, this is not to say that each policy meeting will decide in favour of a 25 bp reduction. I leave open the possibility of a further 0.5 bp reduction provided that the right conditions are in place; however, I envisage that a 0.25 reduction is likely to be more acceptable in the near future. QUESTION from Interfax: Two questions, please. First. Last autumn, the Central Bank issued a public statement that it was crafting guidance for civil servants, in an effort to mitigate the volatility of the exchange rate. Can you please update us on the status of this guidance? For which civil servants is this intended? Does this initiative remain current in light of recent statements that suggest a general over-strengthening in the ruble and that they weigh in on the exchange rate? And another question, if I may. Recently, we have heard heavy criticism against Rosstat. What is the Bank of Russia’s view of Rosstat statistics?

Nevertheless, given the contingencies, we decided that for their convenience they will be allowed a three-year deferral in the creation of provisions on Ukrainian assets. 9 / 14  BIS central bankers' speeches  RIA Novosti’s QUESTION: I wanted to ask, you said that the Central Bank was developing an action plan to reduce inflation volatility through non-monetary measures, among others. What kind of instruments have you already developed? This is the first question. And question two. Have you revised your risk and optimistic scenarios for the next three-years? Thank you. ELVIRA NABIULLINA: Inflation volatility may in fact be determined by non-monetary factors which we are also taking into account. We think it is important to tackle these factors in cooperation with the Government and regional authorities to reduce inflation volatility. In fact, the regional analysis mentioned today also demonstrates that inflation dynamics depend primarily on a competitive environment. For example, inflationary pressure is lower in those regions where local authorities are pushing for agricultural fairs to bring produce to the market. There are also factors related to natural monopolies, and so on. We have already held an expert discussion. Our Monetary Policy Department is onto it. We invite experts to map out such non-monetary risks and specify measures to tackle them. However, these efforts are still underway – we are at present actively engaged in this process. Your second question was about the risk and optimistic scenarios. We have left the baseline parameters largely unchanged, i.e.
And the state has underwritten any losing streak. Clearer practical examples of a policy timeconsistency problem are unlikely to exist. 4. Resolving the time-inconsistency problem  In addressing this time-consistency problem, two broad approaches are possible: redesign of the financial system to reduce the scale of insurable risks; and redesign of the social safety net to make it less susceptible to gaming. (a)  Redesigning the financial system  What options best tackle excessive risk-taking incentives? A number suggest themselves, some modest, others more radical. •  Introducing leverage limits: One simple means of altering the rules of the asymmetric game between banks and the state is to place heavier restrictions on leverage. European banks were not subject to a regulatory leverage ratio in the runup to crisis. They exploited that loophole. Closing it would bring about a clockwise rotation in banks’ payoff schedule, lowering the beta of banks’ equity returns and reducing risk-taking incentives. This is an easy win. Simple leverage ratios already operate in countries such as the US and Canada. They appear to have helped slow debt-fuelled balance sheet inflation. The Basel Committee is now seeking to introduce leverage ratios internationally. To be effective, it is important that leverage rules bite. They need to be robust to the seductive, but ultimately siren, voices claiming this time is different. That suggests they should operate as a regulatory rule (Pillar I), rather than being left to supervisory discretion (Pillar II). It is important, too, that leverage limits are set at the right level.

In recent years, this tendency has been amplified by high immigration and hence strong population growth. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  In spite of vigorous building activity, the number of completed dwellings is still low in relation to population growth. This housing gap has developed over several years and is pushing up house prices. A tight labour market and low interest rates are pushing in the same direction. The rise in house prices and the rate of debt accumulation are closely linked. Since the mid1990s household debt in Norway has risen appreciably faster than income. On average, household debt is now twice as high as disposable income. A rising share of households are facing a debt burden that makes them vulnerable when the interest rate again moves up to a normal level or if economic developments in Norway should take a turn for the worse. In such a situation, many households might find it challenging to service their debt and may reduce household spending. A pronounced fall in household demand will have a negative impact on corporate earnings and enterprises’ capacity to service loans from Norwegian banks. The key policy rate influences a number of variables, including the krone exchange rate, debt and house prices. In its interest rate setting, the Bank seeks to take into account all the key relationships in the economy, those that influence the real economy and inflation. But there is a limit to the tasks that can be given to monetary policy.
Ravi Menon: Monetary Authority of Singapore's Annual Report 2017/18 Remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at MAS' Annual Report 2017/18 Media Conference, Singapore, 4 July 2018. * * * Good morning. Welcome to MAS’ Annual Report media conference. GLOBAL ECONOMY Let me begin with three broad statements about the global economy. One, the current expansion in the global economy is likely to be sustained this year. Two, the global growth cycle has matured and is probably past its peak. Three, tail risks to growth have grown significantly over the last six months. The current expansion in the global economy is likely to be sustained through this year. Last year, global GDP growth was at its strongest since 2011, at 3.8%. This momentum has carried into this year and is expected to persist. The strength of the global economy is anchored on three mutually reinforcing upturns – in manufacturing, in trade, and in investment. Global manufacturing is still expanding. Industrial production rose by 3.4% in 2017 and leading indicators like new orders for capital goods remain healthy. World trade has kept pace with GDP growth. Emerging Asia in particular is experiencing healthy expansion in trade, on the back of stronger demand in the G3 economies. Investment growth has picked up. Business capital expenditure in the G3 and Asia increased by 3.6% in 2017. Capex spending in the US is expected to be sustained, on the back of corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and positive business sentiment.

To the extent there is greater recognition of risks of all kinds and consequent demand for effective risk management solutions, the financial sector will have an important role to play in the years ahead. It is hard to tell at this point what the specific growth opportunities will be. We just have to watch very closely how these trends unfold. But overall, MAS is undiminished in its optimism and confidence in the prospects for the financial industry in Singapore. 1 The circuit breaker refers to the tightened restrictions on movements and gatherings of people imposed from 7  April to 1 June 2020, aimed at slowing the spread of the Covid-19 virus in Singapore. 2 BNY Mellon and Deutsche Bank are the two new players. The existing seven are Citibank, Standard Chartered  Bank, UBS, JP Morgan, BNP Paribas, XTX, and Jump Trading. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
The reason is the combination of a higher risk premia and lower interest rates in industrial countries, as a result of flight to quality and expectations of lower monetary policy rates than previously expected so much for the US as for the Euro Zone. In this external setting, commodity prices have remained high and, particularly, crude oil prices are reaching record nominal levels in dollars. Besides, international prices of food are showing a rising trend. Accordingly, emerging economies have been more dynamic than previously expected, contributing to worldwide GDP growth. Thus, China, India and Russia as a group explain more than a half of the world GDP growth during the first semester of this year. The Chilean economy Chile’s current framework of macroeconomic and financial policies and institutions has insulated the economy from the turbulences in international financial markets. In particular, the fiscal solvency and the conduction of an inflation-targeting monetary policy under a floating exchange rate regime have increased the economy’s resilience to external shocks. Between July 19 and August 16 – the day before the Fed reduced its discounted rate in 50 basis points and authorized the use of bonds supported by mortgages and collaterals – the Chilean peso depreciated slightly, the 10-year bond rates decreased and the stock exchange experienced one of the lowest falls among industrial and emerging economies. The Chilean economy started a period of above-trend-growth in the third quarter of 2006. This growth has been supported by expansive domestic macroeconomic policies and favorable external conditions.

Although the turmoils in global financial markets that started in July have been reduced by the determined actions taken by the central banks of industrial countries, especially the Fed, risk aversion is still high, credit maturity has been reduced considerably and, except for prime firms, financial conditions have narrowed around the world. It is foreseen that turbulences in global financial markets will have effects on the perspectives of the world economic growth. In any case, this adjustment comes at a time in which most firms and the banking sector around the world are on solid footing, perhaps with the sole exception of some economies in Eastern Europe. The epicenter of this trembling is in the United States, which economy already was experiencing an important adjustment in its housing market, now expected to be more intense and extended as a result of the deterioration in the credit conditions that experiences its mortgage market. At the same time, the drop in US housing prices and the less favorable financial conditions faced by US consumers will affect the dynamism of private consumption. Although the deterioration of financial conditions has no direct effect on prime firms, their economic perspectives have been negatively affected by lower dynamism expected for consumption and by more restrictive financial conditions faced by their consumers and suppliers. Nevertheless, it is important to emphasize that the indicators of real activity of the third quarter have shown a surprising strength of the labor markets and consumption.
It is true that, to the extent that the present imbalance within the economy reflects sterling’s appreciation against the euro, we would have been protected against that. But, with accelerating inflation in the economy as a whole, the price of such protection of the suffering sectors would have been tantamount to real exchange rate appreciation, which would in any event have damaged their competitive position. And, it would not in that case be possible to reverse that effect through exchange rate adjustment. Joining EMU from the start would in fact, as things have turned out, have been a strong form of relaxing our objective for consistently low inflation in the economy as a whole to ease the pressures on the internationally-exposed sectors which I argued against a few moments ago. There are no easy answers so long as our economies continue to diverge. Coping with such tensions as may emerge within the Eurozone - with or without the UK - is likely to be easier in a context of structural, supply-side flexibility and adaptability - which also, as I say, essentially determines the underlying rate at which the economy can expand in the medium and longer-term. The Eurozone started with chronically high unemployment. Some countries still have very high ratios of public debt to GDP. And most face the prospect of an increasing burden on their public finances with ageing populations.

The point is that there has been increasing recognition that it is the complex interaction of policies across the board - often involving difficult political judgements as to how best to reconcile economic and other social objectives - that influences the supply-side capacity of the economy. And it is that which determines the underlying rate of growth that can be sustained and sets the limits to what can be achieved through macroeconomic demand management. Against that background our recent economic performance has improved. In fact, since the broad monetary policy framework of inflation targeting was adopted in the UK some seven years ago, the United Kingdom as a whole has in fact achieved the longest period of sustained low inflation we’ve BIS Review 33/20009  2  known for a generation. Retail price inflation, on the Government’s target measure, has averaged around 2.7%. But alongside low inflation we’ve had the lowest nominal interest rates that most of us can remember. Short-term rates have averaged some 6¼% compared with some 11¼% over the preceding decade. And 10-year government bond yields have fallen, with inflationary expectations, to around 5¼% which apart from a brief period last year is the lowest they’ve been for nearly 40 years. Much more fundamentally we’ve enjoyed the longest period of uninterrupted, quarter by quarter, economic growth since records began some 45 years ago - with annual growth averaging 2.8% between ¼ and ½% above most estimates of our underlying trend rate. The number of people in employment is the highest on record.
That requires putting in place effective regimes to deal with remaining gaps such as those I have set out: liquidity in resolution, treatment of smaller institutions, unlevelled playing fields in an incomplete Banking Union and appropriate policies for dealing with systemic crisis. Of course, the adoption of such an ambitious reform may require difficult political compromises. But in the current Covid-stricken economies and societies, European citizens deserve a more robust crisis management framework commensurate with the risks threatening us. A consistent and comprehensive bank failure management framework will require that we work together and that every effort be made to safeguard and reinforce financial stability within a framework of cooperation and coordination between authorities at the European and international level. Thank you. 3

So we have seen financial firms outsourcing functions like IT support, systems development and HR both within the UK and Europe and to India. That too seems likely to continue so further growth of trading and management in London may well not lead to proportionate growth in jobs. On current trends we might expect a greater concentration of high value, high skill jobs in London. Conclusion So back to my question: wave or persistent stream? The answer is, as you will have spotted, both. Readers of the Bank’s Financial Stability Report (next edition due next month) – or those that have read the financial news – will know that the financial markets have been buoyant recently; in particular the premia for risks in the credit market are very low and profit growth and bonuses have been spectacular. Some of this may well be the crest of a wave. However, for the reasons I have set out this afternoon, London is also benefiting from a longer lasting and a strong current. We may expect that cycle to turn at some stage – and London will be affected because of its international position. But there are good reasons to expect London to further enhance its position as a global financial centre in the long term. And that will have implications for the rest of the economy and the risks it faces. It will continue to affect the labour market, the housing market, and the distribution of wealth and income.