samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
William C Dudley: Fostering economic growth in the Bronx Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the 17th Annual Bronx Bankers Breakfast, Bronx, New York City, 8 May 2015. *  *  *  I am very pleased to have the opportunity to join you today at the 17th Annual Bronx Bankers Breakfast. I would like to thank Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz, Jr., the Business Initiative Corporation of New York and the Bronx Overall Economic Development Corporation for the opportunity to speak about the economic outlook for the Bronx. This is my second visit to the Bronx in the past five months. When I was here last December, I had the opportunity to hear from various community and business leaders about what they were seeing and the issues they were facing. Such visits are an important part of the New York Fed’s outreach efforts to keep apprised of key developments in the Second District, and to identify areas where we should be directing our attention. In my remarks today, I will focus on the outlook for the Bronx, the important role that community banks play in the local economy, as well as specific challenges facing local small businesses. It is important to recognize that small businesses play a vital role in any economy, so fostering economic and financial conditions that allow these businesses to flourish is important to the health of the local economy.

As the member responsible for monetary policy preparations, I am in a position to influence discussions and decisions, apart from those at Board meetings, mainly as chairman of the internal monetary policy group that is made up of leading members of the Bank’s competent departments. Matters on the monetary policy agenda are discussed by this group on a continuous basis. In the light of that discussion, at Board meetings I also present proposals about the direction of policy. However, all the members of the group attend Board meetings and are able to present their own views. The arrangements we have chosen for internal discussions and preparations build on experiences at other central banks. A proposal for the approach we have used since autumn 1999 was drafted by some of us after talks with colleagues at the Bank of England, the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve. There are some important differences, however. The officials who prepare the Board’s material are in a stronger position compared with other central banks. We ask them to produce a comprehensive assessment of inflation independently, whereas in the Bank of England, for instance, the counterpart to our Executive Board is involved in this work. And at neither the Bank of England nor the ECB are staff present at policy meetings. In other central banks, moreover, before the preparatory material is presented to the counterpart to our Executive Board, it has to be approved by the competent board member. So in all these respects our internal process is very open.
What Exter repeatedly maintained was that the Central Bank was only a necessary condition for future prosperity. That necessary condition was to be created by maintaining price stability so that the economic agents could make economic decisions based on long run prospects. Since the central bank does not produce goods and services, it cannot directly get involved in economic activities. It is therefore the task of the government and the private sector to take appropriate measures to create wealth in the society. The Central Bank’s only weapon is to print money and such money, by changing the price levels, acts only as an illusion. Hence, Exter thought it necessary to warn those who had been harboring the Keynesian type of ideology to raise governmental expenditure through printed money. In the Exter Report, he argued that higher income created through money creation would simply stimulate consumption of imported goods and precipitate serious balance of payments difficulties. Given the underlying domestic production capacity, deficit financing may be an efficacious policy in developed countries that are largely dependent on foreign trade. But, it would not be the case with a developing economy. Hence, the Exter Report highlighted that, “this should serve as a warning to those who might hope that some of the policies growing out of Keynesian economics can be uncritically adapted to Ceylon”. As a safeguard, a provision was included in the Monetary Law prohibiting the Central Bank to engage in trade or otherwise have a direct interest in any commercial, industrial or other undertaking.

He belonged to the old guard of economists who believed that economic prosperity cannot be attained by printing money. This was indeed going against the popular tides of the late 1930s and 1940s. At that time, Keynesianism had been accepted by the mainstream economists on both sides of the Atlantic as a new religion. It explicitly advocated the desirability of deficit financing as a strategy for attaining full employment. Exter doubted the validity of this claim both in his public speeches and writings. At one stage, even Paul Samuelson had teased him that ‘though Exter may be right, he was lonely in his opinion’. The fact that there were no supporters for his view did not prevent Exter from making public what he believed to be true. On the very first day of the establishment of the Central Bank of Ceylon, in a press interview he gave as the first Governor of the Bank, he warned against the use of the Bank for things which it cannot fulfill. “Today, we can only be filled with high hopes for the future. It would be a mistake to expect startling results immediately from the establishment of the Central Bank. There is no financial wizardry by which the Bank can suddenly pull out of a hat a higher standard of living for everybody. The Bank’s contribution must necessarily be a long-run contribution. The Bank does not itself produce goods and services, but it should, by creating the right monetary conditions enable the country…” to do so.
The e-krona must also be designed with consideration for the fact that there are certain groups who risk a type of financial exclusion when cash disappears, as for various reasons, they find it difficult to use digital solutions. This is a different type of financial exclusion than is often discussed internationally. In Sweden, all adults have the right to a payment account with basic functions so we have no problems with what is normally called financial inclusion. The elderly, those with disabilities and people who find it difficult to manage digital solutions risk encountering problems when cash disappears, despite having access to a bank account, because they are not able to manage digital technology. It is the state's job to ensure that 12 This argument has been highlighted by Kumhof and Noone (2018). 13  This reasoning has been developed, for instance, in Engert and Fung (2017). 14 This is also one of the conclusions in the Icelandic central bank Sedlabanki’s report, see Sedlabanki (2018). 6 [9]  these people can manage their day-to-day payments. We cannot expect the private market to take full responsibility for this on its own initiative. The future payment market is already here In today’s digitalised world, rapid and digital payments are in great demand. In a world where we can send information around the world in real time, it may appear strange that it takes such a long time and is so difficult to move digital money.

More recently, the EU has responded collectively by, inter alia, imposing severe economic sanctions on Russia. The growing significance of European policies renders all the more important continuing to push on with the development of the European institutional framework. The response to the war in Ukraine must, once again, be more Europe. In this regard, the EU’s recent proposals to increase its autonomy of decision and action in such important areas as energy, technology and the digital arena stand out. It is essential that, in these fields, the policies be designed and implemented so as to minimise the risk of fragmentation within the EU and of undesired distortions emerging. The war in Ukraine will also exert upward pressure on government expenditure, both to mitigate the effects on the most vulnerable households and firms and to cover the reception of refugees and military spending. The current shocks could be tackled more appropriately by strengthening the coordination between countries. The severity of the EU-wide supply shock (amplified after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine), its exogenous nature and the strong cross-border impact of domestic fiscal policies all warrant this coordination. Specifically, a common fiscal response to the challenges posed by the war in Ukraine would be desirable, including pooling the government spending needed to address its effects on the Member States’ economies. Moreover, the European Commission is currently reviewing the European fiscal rule framework.
Financial policymakers will not drive the transition to a low-carbon economy. Only Governments can solve the Tragedy of the Horizon. 9 Financial policymakers can amplify the impacts of those decisions, while ensuring the financial system remains resilient during the transition. With respect to climate, our role is to develop the frameworks for markets to adjust efficiently. Financing the de-carbonisation of our economy is a major opportunity for investors. It implies a sweeping reallocation of resources and a technological revolution, with investment in  6  The FSB brings together national authorities responsible for financial stability from the G20 and other major financial centres, international financial institutions and standard-setters. The FSB also conducts outreach with 65 other jurisdictions through its six regional consultative groups. 7  As summarised in the “FSB Chair’s letter to G20 Ministers and Governors on Financial Reforms – Progress on the Work Plan for the Hangzhou Summit” (February 2016), the FSB is working on reducing misconduct risk, including exchanging best practices on governance frameworks and potentially developing a supervisory toolkit or guidance; examining the effectiveness of post crisis reforms to compensation and whether disincentives to misconduct should be strengthened; and sharing national experiences on bank regulators’ enforcement powers.

(iii)  Inclusive  Inclusiveness is at the heart of the SDGs, and it must be at the heart of financial reform. However, recent years have seen a worrying decline in correspondent banking services, with local banks and money service businesses in numerous regions losing access to the global banking system. 12 The impact, in terms of unfulfilled economic potential, lost access to finance, and the break on sustainable development, is more than financial. Financial abandonment also has social, economic and security consequences. Communities that become financially excluded become vulnerable, particularly where lost banking services cut off income flows from remittances. Our shared challenge is to combat money laundering and terrorist financing while reversing financial abandonment. These aims are entirely compatible. Keeping flows inside the financial system, and subject to stringent due diligence against clearly articulated standards, rather than forcing them underground is the way to ensure that the financial sector continues to serve real economies around the world. To this end, the FSB, the World Bank and the IMF are implementing the four-point action plan endorsed by G20 Leaders. It is: (1)  Assessing the dimensions and implications of the issue;  (2)  Clarifying regulatory expectations by working with the FATF and relevant countries;  (3)  Expanding capacity through technical assistance in those jurisdictions whose firms have lost correspondent banking services; and  (4)  Strengthening tools for due diligence by correspondent banks.
During his tenure at the IMF he pushed the research department to focus on financial-sector issues and explore ways of integrating them into the IMF’s macroeconomic models. This was long before modelling the financial sector more effectively became a high priority both in academia and central banking. After his three-year term at the IMF, Raghu returned to the University of Chicago. In 2012, he went back to India to serve briefly as Chief Economic Advisor to the Finance Minister. In 2013, he was appointed as Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and in 2015 as ViceChairman of the Board of Directors at the Bank for International Settlements. With hindsight, Raghu himself acknowledged that putting an academic in the Governor’s job at the RBI was ‘like letting a kid loose in a candy shop!’. Which is not to say that the job was always easy or enjoyable. When he joined the RBI, inflation was at double-digit levels, the rupee was in free fall, capital was fleeing, and growth was weak. Raghu did not waste any time. In September 2013, on his very first day in office, he gave a press conference outlining a number of planned reforms. Investors and markets were soon convinced that the RBI would follow a stability-oriented monetary policy. However, there were also occasions when Raghu’s comments had surprising consequences.

The end users will provide a steady stream of long-term demands for bonds which will complement the dealers’ more traditional short-term horizon. In addition, the portfolio structure of end-users also acts as a countercyclical force to the one-way market of financial intermediaries which is common to an emerging market, and help preempt a massive panic or withdrawal of funds. How are we doing on all these, then? In the primary market, fiscal prudence in the past decades before the crisis had resulted in a very limited supply of government bonds. All this has changed as a result of the crisis. The amount of public sector bond has increased substantially during the past 2 years. Much of this was created by the government taking on the responsibility of fiscalizing the costs of financial sector restructuring incurred by the Bank of Thailand in our cleaning up of the financial institution system. Currently, there is close to one trillion baht in public sector bonds outstanding, amounting to about one fourth of the country’s GDP and the banking system’s deposit base. With even further losses to fiscalize, the supply of government bond is not going to be a constraint for future development. Attempts have also been made to introduce a quarter-ahead calendar of regular issuance. Thus, Mondays were typically reserved for treasury bills, Tuesdays for state-enterprise bonds and Wednesdays for government bonds. This has worked well for a brief period, but now we are back temporarily to waiting for new supplies of bonds.
Risk assessment We see the risks to the economic outlook as broadly balanced. Economic activity could outperform our expectations if consumers become more confident and save less than currently expected. A faster improvement in the pandemic situation could also lead to a stronger expansion than currently envisaged. If supply bottlenecks last longer and feed through into higher than anticipated wage rises, price pressures could be more persistent. At the same time, the economic outlook could deteriorate if the pandemic worsens, which could delay the further reopening of the economy, or if supply shortages turn out to be more persistent than currently expected and hold back production. Financial and monetary conditions The recovery of growth and inflation still depends on favourable financing conditions for all sectors of the economy. Market interest rates have eased over the summer, but reversed recently. Overall, financing conditions for the economy remain favourable. 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Bank lending rates for firms and households are at historically low levels. Lending to households is holding up, especially for house purchases. The somewhat slower growth of lending to firms is mainly due to the fact that firms are still well funded, because they borrowed heavily in the first wave of the pandemic. They have high cash holdings and are increasingly retaining earnings, which reduces the need for external funding. For larger firms, issuing bonds is an attractive alternative to bank loans. Solid bank balance sheets continue to ensure that sufficient credit is available.

The spread of the Delta variant has so far not required lockdown measures to be reimposed. But it could slow the recovery in global trade and the full reopening of the economy. Consumer spending is increasing, although consumers remain somewhat cautious in the light of the pandemic developments. The labour market is also improving rapidly, which holds out the prospect of higher incomes and greater spending. Unemployment is declining and the number of people in job retention schemes has fallen by about 28 million from the peak last year. The 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  recovery in domestic and global demand is further boosting optimism among firms, which is supporting business investment. At the same time, there remains some way to go before the damage to the economy caused by the pandemic is overcome. There are still more than two million fewer people employed than before the pandemic, especially among the younger and lower skilled. The number of workers in job retention schemes also remains substantial. To support the recovery, ambitious, targeted and coordinated fiscal policy should continue to complement monetary policy. In particular, the Next Generation EU programme will help ensure a stronger and uniform recovery across euro area countries. It will also accelerate the green and digital transitions, support structural reforms and lift long-term growth. We expect the economy to rebound firmly over the medium term. Our new staff projections foresee annual real GDP growth at 5.0 per cent in 2021, 4.6 per cent in 2022 and 2.1 per cent in 2023.
That guidance should help to give confidence to businesses and households and help to support demand growth. By reducing uncertainty about our reaction function, guidance should also have helped to counteract the pressure in financial markets to price in the chance of a rapid increase in Bank Rate. We chose unemployment as the threshold indicator not because it was ideal – far from it – but because other indicators were all less attractive. Of course, no sooner had we announced a policy linked to the unemployment rate than it began to fall unusually precipitously. But what is there not to like about sharply falling unemployment? After all, getting the economy back to a medium-term path quickly, allowing policy to normalise, would be a good thing? Right? Well, falling unemployment is undoubtedly a good thing for the individuals who are back in work and on many other social counts. It could only be a purveyor of the dismal science who found rapidly falling unemployment disappointing! Yet, in order to see rising living standards on average, it is crucial to see rising output per head (i.e. rising productivity) – which ultimately drives real national income per head and hence how well off we are as a country. So we need to see rising employment accompanied by even faster growth in output.

François Villeroy de Galhau: Support for Fintechs and the digital revolution in payments Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution (ACPR), at the Fintech Forum, Paris, 12 October 2020. * * * Mr Minister, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am very happy to welcome you here to the Banque de France’s premises this morning. I would also like to welcome those joining us remotely. We are all aware of just how important new technologies are in ensuring continuity and stability in this crisis. My dear Cédric, you’d clearly be the first to say so. I would also like to welcome Alain Clot, President of France Fintech, and of course Robert Ophèle, Chairman of the AMF, with which we have organised this Forum. Your presence among us, Mr Minister, is proof of public authorities’ commitment to Fintechs. And that is my first message this morning: the Banque de France and the ACPR are also fully committed to supporting Fintechs. I shall then go on to tell you how we intend to act in the digital payment revolution. **  I. The Banque de France and ACPR’s support for Fintechs Let’s start with a question I consider particularly important, and on which there should be no shred of ambiguity between us: why do the Banque de France and ACPR regard Fintechs as important?
David Carse: The Hong Kong banking sector - performance and outlook Speech by Mr David Carse, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Asia Pacific Loan Markets Association, Hong Kong, 9 July 2003. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen: I have had the privilege of speaking to the Association on two previous occasions, beginning at its inaugural lunch five years ago. I am pleased to have the opportunity to do so again, particularly since the fifth anniversary of the Association marks another milestone in its presence in Hong Kong. During this time, the Association has done much to promote the development of the syndicated loan market in Hong Kong and in the region more generally. As I noted in my speech to the Association last year, its work in establishing common standards for documentation has been particularly commendable. I want to use this occasion to talk about the current state of the Hong Kong banking sector and about its prospects. This is something whose significance extends beyond the interests of those, such as yourselves, who are directly involved with the industry. The banking sector plays a vital role in the service-based economy of Hong Kong, and its profitability is something in which all of us have a stake. A profitable banking sector is better able to withstand negative shocks, and this helps to preserve the stability of the financial system.

But income diversification has become more important, with banks increasingly having to develop their fee-generating businesses to be more profitable. We are seeing this particularly in the move by a number of banks into wealth management, such as securities, unit trusts, insurance, pensions and private banking. A further opportunity for business diversification for the medium-size banks will come from the ability to branch into Mainland following the relaxation of the asset size criterion under CEPA. The eight banks that will benefit from this would, according to our calculations, have the scope to open a total of as many as 20 branches in the Mainland over the next three years. This would be a significant addition to the 40 or so branches that banks from Hong Kong already have on the Mainland. We should certainly not regard Mainland access as a panacea, and the benefits will take time to come through. But the important point is that the medium-size banks now have an alternative avenue to grow their business outside the Hong Kong market. Indeed, more generally, banks in Hong Kong will benefit from the increasing financial and economic integration with the Mainland. In the syndicated loan market, we can see this in the growing trend towards Mainland-linked borrowers. One development of this trend is likely to be the growth of the syndicated loan market in RMB. This should create opportunities for foreign as well as domestic banks within the Mainland. Let me summarise the argument I have been making.