samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Since 2013, in fact, investment in equipment and in intangible assets has gained weight relative to total investment (more than 4 pp) to the detriment of investment in real estate assets. Beyond the changes in the supply of credit, this pattern will also have been influenced by certain far-reaching changes in the demand for real estate assets in recent years. In particular, there have been some housing-related fiscal and regulatory measures that have sought to reduce the traditional bias towards home ownership, such as the elimination of the house-purchase allowance under personal income tax. It should also be borne in mind that Spain has been no exception regarding the overall tendency to increase the weight of investment in intangible assets derived largely from the expansion of digitalisation and technological development. This change causes difficulties when it comes to using the asset to be financed as collateral, which may lead to the disintermediation of business financing, in particular of large corporations. While this is a global phenomenon, its intensity has been somewhat more marked here, with Spain having traditionally been more highly banked than other developed economies. Small and medium-sized enterprises cannot avoid this change, and they must be prepared to undertake the search for alternative means of financing. That will require headway in making their management more professional and in enhancing their transparency with a view to resorting to the financing offered on the capital markets. 8  See Chapter 2 “Financing and investment decisions of Spanish non-financial corporations”, Annual Report 2016, Banco de España.

Ravi Menon: Securing good jobs in a growing financial industry Remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Inauguration of BNP Paribas’ Asia Pacific Campus, Singapore, 7 March 2014. *  *  *  Alain Papiasse, Deputy Chief Operating Officer and Head of Corporate and Investment Banking, BNP Paribas Group, Eric Raynaud, Chief Executive Officer of BNP Paribas Asia Pacific, Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. I am delighted to join you today to celebrate the opening of BNP Paribas’ new Asia Pacific Campus here in Singapore. It is a truly impressive campus, skilfully combining the charms of a colonial heritage building with state-of-the-art facilities and technologies. A significant move The opening of this Campus in Singapore is significant for a few reasons. •  First, it demonstrates BNP Paribas’ firm commitment to strengthening the capabilities of its staff in Asia. This is BNP Paribas’ first corporate training centre outside of France. •  Second, it shows strategic foresight. BNP Paribas took the decision to invest in this Campus three years ago, when it was facing a very challenging economic environment with the Eurozone gripped by crisis. •  Third, it reflects in a way a broader story of the continued importance of Asia to European banks. After almost two years of stagnation, European bank lending to Asia has started to rise again.
This is again to be expected as one of the main objectives of the RBC2 review is to improve risk sensitivity of the capital framework so as to more accurately reflect the different risk profiles of insurers. 25. MAS will continue to review and study the QIS results and take on board many of your feedback and suggestions. 26. As examples, we are going through comments from some industry participants relating to widening the eligibility criteria for the matching adjustment feature of RBC2, the possibility of giving some credit to the illiquid nature of some other liabilities that do not qualify for the matching adjustment, the calibration of risk charges for equities and long-dated corporate bonds, and the calibration of the operational risk charge, which has also been discussed with the industry. 27. Let me emphasize that we will implement RBC2 only after we have done a thorough calibration and assessment. We want the new capital framework to be more risk-sensitive and robust, but it should also be fit-for-purpose and not hamper well managed insurance businesses unduly. At individual firm level, the new framework does not seek to make it  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  better or worse for you compared to the current RBC, but only that how much capital that you will hold in future be more sensitive to your risk profile. 28. The MAS will embark on another stage of consultation and we are also targeting an additional QIS in Q2 2015.

Chart 6 shows that ground rent loans, student accommodation and equity release mortgages have the highest MA benefit relative to their market values. Chart 7 shows that, at industry level, there's no apparent over-reliance on any single illiquid asset class, but at the individual firm level we are closely monitoring exposures to any group of assets with similar risk characteristics. Given the growing concentration to private assets and the associated material MA benefit, we see a risk of insurers becoming over-reliant on models to drive investment and capital decisions, models that are inherently reliant on public market performance as proxies and limited history. Page 7  Supervisory expectations and the Prudent Person Principle Both trends I have outlined demand strong governance and risk management in insurers to evaluate why they are undertaking particular transactions, and how they align with their business purpose and risk appetite. For example, a fundamental consideration for the PRA is whether asset origination activities are suitably aligned with the Restrictions on Business rules. Following the question on the business purpose, boards also need to evaluate the capabilities in the firm to assess the complex interaction of risks where concentrations may arise. They also need to ensure that the right combination of skills and expertise are available and utilised. One of the most powerful and flexible tools that firms and the regulator have to mitigate these concentration risks is the Prudent Person Principle or the ‘PPP’.
This has been a decisive factor in contributing to the fall in public expenditure as a percentage of GDP from 56 per cent in 1998 to 50 per cent in 2007. It is important to continue using a surplus target for public finances over the next ten years. There are two main reasons for this. Firstly, it will strengthen Sweden’s ability to manage crises and recessions. If there is a public-finance surplus when a crisis begins, there is little risk that the deficit will exceed the 3 per cent of GDP limit of the growth and stability pact when the crisis is most severe. Secondly, averaging a surplus over an economic cycle means that the indebtedness and interest expenditure of the public sector will decrease over time. In a review of the lessons that can be learned from this crisis, Olivier Blanchard, Chief Economist at the IMF, points to the value of “fiscal space" in the form of strong public finances in the initial position and mentions that fiscal policy rules may be helpful in this respect. 4 The surplus target is thus a valuable component of the Swedish fiscal policy framework. It anchors expectations regarding public finances in such a way that those who are interested in investing in Swedish government securities can be relatively certain about how public sector finances will develop in the longer term. It reduces uncertainty regarding the preconditions for saving and investment.

Within the scope of this platform, the CBT became one of the fifteen members of the National Strategy on Financial Education subgroup, which was established in 2009. Similarly, the CBT applied to join the studies of the Financial Inclusion subgroup under this platform (established in February 2011) and also for membership in the Task Force on Financial Consumer Protection that was established at the OECD. The Central Bank of Turkey also contributes, via data collection and surveys, to international studies on financial access. Within this framework, the CBT supports studies carried out by the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP) conducted in collaboration with the World Bank. Moreover, the CBT – along with other related public institutions – contributes to the efforts of the Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion (GPFI) initiated by the G-20 to enhance the exchange of information and cooperation regarding financial access. Having said these, I believe that the CBT study entitled “Access to Financial Services and Financial Education in Turkey and Around the World” will become an important reference regarding this issue. The booklet is now accessible on the CBT website as well as in the Conference CD and is will be in print soon. In the last part of my speech, I would like to mention some specific points regarding financial education within the framework of this Conference. In the first session, we will discuss the relationship between financial education and financial stability and contribution of financial education to the functioning of the financial system.
Wider exchange rate band The attempt to shift from the mini band to the wider band lasted for 48 hours. We knew that it had limited chances of success. Within four days we had lost almost $ 6 billion in international reserves. And the free floating exchange rate regime, supported by a solid fiscal stance, has become our new objective. The idea of widening the band under the model designed and issued as of January 13th was good, but unfortunately it came too late. Centralisation of Foreign Exchange Transactions Suggestions about centralising exchange market operations shock me. Because centralising exchange market transactions in the central bank amounts to having no foreign exchange regime, it leads the country to the moratorium, with the re-negotiation of debts. Credit lines to Brazil would be cut. It means violating the rules of the game. It would be a completely arbitrary act which would have terrible consequences. Economic Growth The first semester of this year will be hard. But I believe that from next year we will achieve high rates of growth - maybe spectacular rates of growth. Interest rates Interest rates will be kept high at first, but not for a long time. Dollarisation I do not see any case for dollarisation in Brazil. It is a little bit strange for a country to be without its own currency. There will come the day when the adoption of a single currency within the MERCOSUR will be taken into account by its member countries.

But then a common currency  BIS Review /1998  –2–  of the region, not the dollar, will be agreed upon and the first step in this direction is to have a strong real. Responsibility I have been in the government since the beginning of 1995. I feel myself responsible for what has been done during this whole period. Pedro Malan has a key role in the government. Few Brazilians have his international credentials. He has good relations with men that make this world of international finance. His continued presence is essential to consolidate this transition period. But we should care about policies rather than names. Malan and I are carrying out a mission. Devaluation of the real No economy in the world could sustain a devaluation in real terms of 40%. The difficulty in maintaining a devaluation of that magnitude is that inflation would resume. The exchange rate has overshot, but it will come back, appreciating as time elapses. Currency Board I would like to stress my opposition to the idea of adopting a currency board in Brazil. This subject has already been examined and the government has decided against it. The Brazilian economy is not dollarised and I believe it would be a disastrous policy option. Brazil tried a similar regime in 1906. Nowadays, money supply in the expanded concept (M4) comes to $ billion, while international reserves reach $ 36 billion. To implement this regime we would have to dollarise and lengthen the maturity of these deposits.
Firms whose credit conditions have tightened face a profits squeeze and cut their production of (red and blue) cars. Households facing the same tightening in credit conditions face an income squeeze and cut their consumption of (red and blue) cars. As a result, aggregate activity or GDP in the economy – the sum of red and blue car production – falls in this hypothetical economy. There is a recession. While both regions are affected, the impact of this recession is not felt equally. Red firms might borrow more than Blue ones and Red consumers more than Blue ones. This means the tightening of credit conditions  2  In practice borrowing behaviour is likely to be driven by several other factors, such as expectations of future earnings, access to finance and the amount of collateral with which to borrow against. 3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  3  has a larger impact on Red Car than Blue Car region - its recession deeper, the impact on unemployment greater. This further widens the income gap between Red Car and Blue Car regions. What can be done? Enter a central bank with a mandate to support the whole economy. They can do so in two ways. First, they can cut the interest rate at which they lend to banks which, in turn, is reflected in banks’ lower cost of lending to companies and households.

Still, overall we are scored about 59% for digital preconditions and 48% for the actual use of digital technologies, which is close to the regional score, but still far from the frontier of 100. I think that the scores are useful guidelines on where the policies should be focused on. In our case, it is clear that efforts should be concerted in setting a more adequate digital infrastructure, but even more in raising digital skills. On the latter, as noted in the report, significant efforts should be employed in enhancing digital training by employers and limiting digital brain drain. The more limited digital skills are, the more difficult it is to use new technologies and more limited are the growth prospects, in the world of rising digital intensive sectors. In this overall context, as a central bank we have our eyes laid on the financial sector. Obviously, advancement in technology opens the door to innovative financial services, but to unlock its true value for businesses and consumers, we as regulators have a role to play. Against this background, we have embarked on many activities in this area, including setting up an Innovation Hub in 2019, which interacts and supports companies that are willing to pursue innovative business. Last year we conducted a broad based survey, with an aim to map the ecosystem, as a base for policy calibration.
The MPC’s current view, as expressed in the latest Inflation Report, is that import price inflation will moderate over the coming period, but that it will not prove as much of a downward force on inflation as in the late 1990s and early 2000s. We have, for example, seen signs of costs rising in China and the Far East. Looking further ahead, there must be a risk that this begins to spillover into higher import price inflation. And while globalisation has helped to hold down prices of most goods, the demand for energy and other raw materials coming from the newly emerging economies has contributed to higher prices of energy and some commodities. The direct effect on the CPI of higher petrol prices has been much more limited here than in the US for example because so much of the price of our petrol is accounted for by duty. Nonetheless since the beginning of 2004, petrol prices have gone up by over 25% and gas prices by more still. The prices of petrol, utilities and transport services added about 1 percentage point to CPI inflation in May. And this does not include the effect on other goods and services where oil or gas is a component cost. In the past we have seen wages pick up in response to hikes in the oil price and all central banks have been – and remain – watchful for those “second round effects” now. So far we have seen few signs of them.

In the face of these risks, and with monetary policies in the main areas closer to a neutral stance (which also entails greater uncertainty about their future course), central banks must persevere with those decisions that bolster the credibility of these policies, since price stability is the best contribution we can make to economic growth. A second main factor of risk is that continuing world growth might be jeopardised by the presence of growing global imbalances. These could trigger or amplify significant adjustments on international financial markets, such as sharp increases in interest rates and in risk premia. Correcting the imbalances requires the adoption of appropriate economic policies in each of the main economic zones, policies which will, fortunately, also shore up the foundations for growth in each of these areas in the long run. A clear instance of this complementarity can be found in US fiscal policy, whose moderation would contribute to reducing its external imbalance and would improve its mediumterm growth prospects. As to the emerging Asian economies, further steps towards making their  2  BIS Review 60/2006  exchange-rate regimes more flexible will be needed, especially in China. This will not only contribute to more harmonious and sustainable world growth, but will be an essential ingredient for entrenching progress in China towards higher levels of well-being.
14  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  14  Over the past two months, markets have placed a growing weight on the possibility of No Deal, with the betting odds doubling to almost one in three (Chart 11).13 Financial market participants have marked down UK-focused equity prices, sterling and their expectations for MPC policy accordingly.14 Chart 11: Perceived probability of No Deal Brexit up again Meaningful Vote 2  Cross-party talks collapse  PM requests extension of Art. 50  7 Labour MPs resign 3 Tory MPs resign  Withdrawal Agreement voted down  Per cent 40  Theresa May announces resignation  35 30  Further extension of Art. 50 requested EC confirm flexible extension  25 20 15 10 5 0  18 Jan. 19  15 Feb. 19  15 Mar. 19  12 Apr. 19  10 May. 19  07 Jun. 19  Sources: Betfair odds that the UK leaves the EU in 2019 without a Withdrawal Agreement in place and Bank calculations. While the MPC would do what it could to support the economy in the event of No Deal, I would underscore the MPC’s caution that the response of monetary policy to Brexit will not be automatic. As the MPC has repeatedly emphasised, the appropriate monetary response to Brexit will depend on the balance of its effects on demand, supply and the exchange rate.

The intensification of trade tensions has increased the downside risks to global and UK growth. In this regard, the news at the weekend that the US and China agreed to restart trade talks is welcome – though as we have learnt, progress today is no guarantee of progress tomorrow. To recap, the direct effect of the measures announced thus far would have only a marginal impact on the UK, of -0.1% of GDP. That would rise to -0.4% if all measures, including auto tariffs, were implemented. If there were a Brexit-style business confidence shock in the US and China, the total impact on the UK would start to be material, rising above -1% of GDP (Table 3). Since the middle of last year, expectations of UK rates three years ahead have fallen by around half a percentage point and 10-year gilt yields are similarly lower. That would roughly offset the hit to UK GDP in the downside scenario of a significant, Brexit-like hit to US and Chinese business investment. But global trade tensions are not the only factors influencing UK financial conditions. They also remain highly sensitive to the perceived probabilities of different Brexit outcomes. That’s because asset prices are mean expectations, reflecting the weights that market participants place on every possible outcome. 12  As the MPC noted in the minutes to its June meeting, several major car manufacturers had brought forward their regular annual shutdowns from the summer to April, as part of their Brexit contingency plans.
In addition, there are about 130 Islamic unit trusts issued in Malaysia. Thirdly, there are two Shariah-compliant real estate investment trust (REIT) listed on the stock exchange – a hospital REIT and an oil palm  2  BIS Review 57/2008  plantation REIT. Finally, Asia's first Islamic exchange traded fund (ETF) was issued in January 2008 valued at the equivalent of USD262.5 million. A second foreign currency tranche is expected to be launched later in the year which is open for participation of international investors. In relation to this, Malaysia maintains a liberal foreign exchange administration regime where investors are freely able to obtain ringgit and foreign currencies to fund their investments. There continues to be free mobility of inward and outward movement of funds relating to both foreign direct investment and portfolio investments. Having developed a comprehensive Islamic financial system that is supported by the legal, Shariah and regulatory infrastructure, the Islamic financial landscape has been liberalised with the entry of new international players. In addition, the foreign equity ceiling in Islamic financial institutions has also been raised to a maximum of 49 percent as part of the effort to promote strategic alliances. New licences are also being offered for International Islamic Banks and International Takaful Operators to conduct the full range of Islamic banking business or takaful and retakaful business in international currencies. These institutions may be established as a branch or subsidiary and are accorded a tax holiday until 2016.

To the surprise of many institutions and experts, a great part of them of proven experience and repute, BNB’s gross international foreign exchange reserves increased from BGN 24.9 billion as at the end of 2008 to BGN 26.1 billion at the end of 2011. Presently the lev is more than 150% covered with BNB’s international foreign exchange reserves of the highest quality (not even taking into account the government’s deposit). In short, for fifteen years now businesses and citizens have benefited from the predictability and stability resulting from the fixed exchange  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  rate and the stable Bulgarian banking system. Not lastly, in the past year the current account turned positive after an impressive growth of Bulgaria’s exports for two years in a row (by over 30% annually in each year), and at a growing share in total EU imports. All this offers interesting matter for discussion at a forum like this one. How do adjustments and counteracting “imbalances” in a small and open economy with a currency board fit into orthodox economic theories and explanations from popular textbooks, which are as a rule written about economies quite different from that of Bulgaria, and by authors of a radically different economic background? I am curious as to what conclusion today’s scientific forum will reach.