samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
To convince you of how important learning about key economic relationships is to decisions on monetary policy, let me show you two charts which illustrate some of the challenges facing the Monetary Policy Committee. A basic proposition common to most models of the economy is that if demand exceeds the supply capacity of the economy then there will be upward pressure on wage and price inflation. In the labour market supply capacity is often equated, in the long run, with a particular rate of unemployment. Chart 2 plots the unemployment rate against the inflation rate in the UK over the period 1993-2004. It shows the trade off between unemployment and inflation in the short run, also known as the Phillips curve. Unemployment fell from nearly 10% in 1993 to less than 3% in 2004. But – in stark contrast to the earlier post-war period – inflation remained virtually unchanged. How can we explain this phenomenon? Was it because the natural rate of unemployment also fell – perhaps as a result of labour market reforms enacted in the 1980s and 1990s? Or did the Phillips curve become flatter – perhaps because inflation expectations were anchored on the target so that deviations of unemployment from the natural rate generated less pressure on wages and inflation than before? Or was the outcome the result of a chance sequence of shocks that held inflation down?

As a result, the discussion sometimes seems to resemble the discussions of “demand management” in the 1970s more than the monetarist debates of the 1980s. But, if anyone was in any doubt, monetarism was not dead but only resting. And it has recently taken wing again as persistent monetary growth and rising asset prices have given us food for thought. At times the discussion of money can seem detached from the rest of the policy debate. Having listed all the other aspects of the economy factors – like world growth, consumption, financial markets and the labour market – “money” emerges as though it was a separate determinant impacting directly on inflation or inflation expectations like Heineken “refreshing the parts other beers cannot reach”. 9 But money is very much part of the real world and we don’t need any hidden or ghostly mechanisms to see how it feeds through credit, asset prices and consumption in the wider economy. 8  The clearest example is the service offered by London Clearing House, where dealers effectively transact with each other (via gilt repo transactions) across the balance sheet of LCH, which results in an increase in both OFC’s deposits with and borrowing from banks. Similarly, in the case of a synthetic securitisation of corporate bonds, a special purpose vehicle (SPV) is set up to issue securities to investors and holds a cash deposit at a bank from which it makes payments if any of the securitised loans default.
In the end, though, in this financial eco-system as with any other, so much depends on its beating heart – the consumer. That’s why I believe one of the best things we in this room can do is to bend our efforts towards greater financial literacy. Through initiatives to better inform and empower consumers, they can be the judge of their own best interests. That way, the benefits accrue not only to individual consumers, but to the sector and society more widely. Education requires long term commitment and effort from us all, but the prize is also great. Ladies and gentlemen, over the next day or so, we have the opportunity to make a real and substantial contribution to this agenda. For that reason, I am most grateful to you for joining us, and I very much look forward to our discussion and exchange of views. Together, I am sure we can learn and develop further many good measures. Measures that will not only help consumers, but will also improve the health and strength of the financial sector and our economies more widely. Thank you. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Around the same time, Queen Elizabeth granted a monopoly on the writing of assurance policies to Richard Candeler, who led the newly-created Office of Assurances. The Office introduced a system of fees – with the Office receiving a fixed percentage per £ insured 8 – for the production of physical written policies. Both through the creation of the Office and Court of Assurances, and the receipt of customs duties from insurers, the Privy Council in the 16th century – as approved by the monarch – cemented the role of the state in exercising a judicial function and creating an environment of policy registration and anti-fraud conducive to commerce. So, as I see it, this first phase of engagement between the British state and the insurance sector was effectively a trade: dispute resolution services were provided by the state, and insurers contributed some revenue to it in return. Indeed, in the early stages this revenue went directly to Candeler himself. Despite the tight state controls around who could write insurance, the nature of risks being underwritten was granted little oversight – so much so that, for many, the practice of insurance became synonymous with gambling in the 18th century. Perhaps – and I say this with some trepidation here at Lloyd’s – some of the most egregious examples of such behaviour were evident in the marine market. By this point, London had emerged as a centre of excellence in marine risks, due partly to its strategic location on famous shipping routes.
As in the past, in this latest episode the structural deficiencies identified are partly linked to a deficit of cohesion among the national economies that can only be remedied through further relinquishing of sovereignty. Perhaps the relative novelty of the recent crisis in the monetary union is that it shows, with particular seriousness, that any delay or lack of resolve in adopting the necessary reforms would not only be harmful to European construction but would generate very pronounced risks to economic and financial stability in Europe and the rest of the world. Admittedly, major reforms to monetary union governance have been made to date. I refer, for instance, to the new requirements made of domestic policies to contain macroeconomic imbalances in several areas, to the surveillance mechanisms established for these requirements and to the setting in place of national crisis-management systems, with centralised financial support arrangements for those countries most affected. However, such progress is not sufficient to ensure the proper functioning of a common monetary area. One of the main manifestations of the shortcomings observed is the continuing market fragmentation within the euro area. This is, namely, the existence of a country-risk component that means that markets assign different valuations to similar financial assets on the basis of the issuer’s nationality. In particular, the perceived risk of financial institutions’ liabilities depends to some extent on their geographical location.

This fragmentation has quite considerable consequences in terms of differences in the borrowing costs for households and firms according to their geographical location, which reflects the deficient functioning of the common monetary policy transmission mechanism and leads to highly destabilising imbalances between countries. This is why the banking union – whose aim is none other than to ensure the disappearance of the country-risk component of banking liabilities – has been seen as essential to ensure the stability of the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  monetary union, radically altering the European authorities’ set of priorities. What is today a reasonably well-defined project was but a short time ago a mere concept in the minds only of the most visionary pro-Europeans. Single supervisory mechanism The first step towards creating the banking union is the start-up of a single supervisory mechanism, the Regulation for which has recently been approved. We cannot overstate the importance of this milestone: according to the Regulation, in less than one year the financial system of the euro area countries – and of the other EU countries that should decide to join – will come to be supervised by the single mechanism set up within the European Central Bank. In particular, significant banks – which account for 80% of the sector – will be directly overseen by the new European supervisory authority.
Nevertheless, the market has been incorporating some moderation into its vision of the US monetary policy and some more intensity in that of the Eurozone, which partly explains the global depreciation of the dollar. Emerging currencies have benefited from the weak dollar, the better prices of commodities and increased risk appetite. Comparing the statistical closures of this and the previous Reports, the peso has appreciated by around 4.5%, which, in real terms, translates into a decrease of approximately 3.5% of the real exchange rate. Thus, at the last cutoff date it was fluctuating around 90 in its 1986 = 100 measurement, lower than its averages of the last 15 or 20 years. Moreover, in the days following the statistical closure, the peso has continued to appreciate in both nominal and real terms. As a working assumption, the baseline scenario of this Report assumes a slight depreciation in real terms over the projection horizon (figure 7). 3  Turning to the performance of the emerging economies, in the first half of the year China grew 6.9% annually, exceeding expectations. These figures raise the baseline scenario estimate, although some moderation in activity is assumed for the second half, in line with the latest data on manufacturing output, retail sales and investment (figure 8). In Latin America, the recovery of activity has been slower, with poor performance of investment and sectors unrelated with natural resources.

This comprises the Shariah Advisory Council of Bank Negara Malaysia as the highest authority in the ascertainment of Islamic law for Islamic financial business; and a Shariah committee setup in each Islamic financial institution to advise the management and the board on all matters relating to Shariah issues that are specific to the institution. Currently, we are in the midst of revising the Shariah Governance Framework to further strengthen it by providing, among others, greater clarity on the roles, responsibilities and accountabilities of the board, Shariah committee and key organs involved in instituting a robust Shariah compliance risk culture. Through the governance, 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  application of Shariah will be more closely integrated with the business and risk strategies of Islamic financial institutions. These efforts, and many more, have culminated in an unparalleled growth in the Islamic banking market share which grew six fold over the last 20 years. Islamic banking system now comprises over 30% of the overall. Takaful has also grown in acceptance, registering double digit growth rates outpacing the conventional counterpart for the past few years. Ar-Rahnu, Islamic investment accounts are becoming more familiar products among Malaysians. We have also become and have maintained a position among the world’s largest sukuk issuers. Islamic finance is thriving and competitive. Islamic financial institutions should consider the wider impact of their activities Beyond this, Islamic finance is also spearheading initiatives in sustainable finance with Islamic banking institutions championing the implementation of Value-based Intermediation (VBI).
In that long history the highest ever ex ante yield was in 1974, when newly issued 10-year gilts promised a return of 14% a year in nominal terms. In real terms, the highest ever realised (“ex post”) return was the near-10% annual rate on debt sold in 1981. Some of these comparisons are set out in Charts 13a and b. I think that, even from this very cursory look at these particular episodes, a few conclusions can be drawn. One is that, if inflation is allowed to vary, one important influence on it is likely to be the scale of government demand – and aggregate demand more generally – for the economy’s resources. There is, of course, a huge body of evidence on the same (Phillips curve) point, but the fact that inflation was so much more rapid in WWI than in the Napoleonic wars surely owes something to the far greater levels of government demand for economic resources. Second, if the scale of government (and more fundamentally aggregate) demand matters for inflation, its existing debt seems less relevant, or at least is far from enough to tell you about subsequent inflation. Across these three episodes, the level of government debt was at its highest during the Napoleonic wars, when inflation was lowest. During the inflation of the 1970s, debt was significantly lower than during both wars.

Joseph Yam: ABF Pan Asia Bond Index Fund Opening remarks by Mr Joseph Yam, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the listing ceremony of the ABF Pan Asia Bond Index Fund, Hong Kong, 7 July 2005. *  *  *  Deputy Governors and representatives of the EMEAP Central Banks, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, 1. It gives me great pleasure to be present at the inauguration of trading of the ABF Pan Asia Bond Index Fund (PAIF) on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. It was barely two weeks ago that I attended the listing ceremony of another ABF fund. Up to now, two components of the Asian Bond Fund Initiative, the PAIF and the ABF Hong Kong Bond Index Fund, have been listed in Hong Kong. In the next few months, the other seven components of ABF2 will also be launched in other Asian markets. 2. All of this activity marks the culmination of one of the largest co-operative enterprises among central banks in the Asian-Pacific region in recent years. I am delighted to see that, after nearly two years of hard work by central banks and monetary authorities in the region, the PAIF has now been turned from a conceptual construct into a real product. The PAIF is an excellent demonstration of how the public and private sectors can work together to strengthen the regional bond market as an effective channel for turning savings into investments in Asia. 3.
Following are some of the strategic objectives of the Bank of Albania: -  maintaining price stability around 3%;  -  strengthening financial stability;  -  strengthening banking supervision;  -  enhancing financial market security and efficiency;  -  enhancing and approximating institutional capacities to the European model. To materialise the strategy, the medium-term budget has been prepared for the financial management of the institution in the upcoming three years. Approval of the new organisational structure of the Bank of Albania The new structure of the Bank of Albania adapts the activity of its units to the needs and new process imposed by economic developments and changes in the banking legislation. Moreover, it aims at improving the institution’s management and strengthening the internal control. The establishment of the specialised unit to monitor and manage the operational risk is a crucial step in this regard. Also, the new structure aims to strengthen the vertical and horizontal control in compliance with international best practices, models and standards. Strengthening cash security and management systems The Supervisory Council and other administrative structures have reviewed the entire regulatory framework for the security and protection of physical values and information at the Bank of Albania, enhancing both human and technology-related elements. A series of decisions have been made to strengthen the security measures and physical monitoring of the premises where cash is stored and processed, in the form of banknotes and coins.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Approval of the internal audit policy The approved internal audit policy, followed by the revision of the Regulation on the Functioning of the Control Department, defines clearly the position of the activity of the internal audit within the organisational structure of the Bank of Albania. This document provides for the implementation of the Standards for the Professional Practice of Internal Auditing and the Code of Ethics, and specifies the line of reporting of the Inspector General to the Audit Committee, Supervisory Council and Assembly of the Republic of Albania. Approval of the new Statute of the Bank of Albania The new Statute provides for the compliance of many of the provisions for the organisation and functioning of the Bank of Albania with the best practices of the European System of Central Banks. Among others, I would like to mention: -  specification of duties and responsibilities of the Administrators of the Bank of Albania;  -  specification of procedures for the replacement of the administrators, during their absence or when they are unable to act;  -  reformulation of provisions that stipulate the administrative and financial independence of the Bank of Albania by approximating them to the provisions stipulated in the Statute of the European Central Bank. Approval of the Medium-Term Development Strategy and Budget for 2016–18 The medium-term strategy summarises key objectives and major ambitions of the Bank of Albania for the next three years.
It is envisaged that Phase 1 of the Scheme will be launched a year after the finalisation of the Scheme’s operational details, followed by Phase 2 taking into account the implementation experience of the first Phase. Closing Remarks 28. So as you can see, we at the HKMA are still pushing hard on the various bank culture initiatives despite the pressure brought about by the pandemic. We believe that similarly, whilst banks have all been very busy adapting to the unprecedented Covid impacted environment, they must not lose sight of the need (and indeed the importance) of maintaining momentum in their bank culture efforts. I know that banking supervisors in other jurisdictions are equally committed in this regard. And therefore I hope very much that the industry would work closely with the supervisory community in continuing their investment in culture efforts so that we can safeguard a good and sustainable customer outcome. 29. I hope very much that my remarks above will set the stage for the audience to have a good and fruitful day ahead. Once again, I wish to express my gratitude to ASIFMA for organising this event, and for giving me the chance to share with the audience my perspective on bank culture here. Thank you very much. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches

You have to know that when the parts come together and act upon each other, the system as a whole is resilient. One part of the system may well think it has a good plan for offloading some of its risk in a period of stress. But the impact of that on other parts of the system may turn a stress into a crisis. And, given the cost when things go badly wrong, it is not only important to ensure the financial system can manage the known, likely risks it faces – the ones you can see and the ones that you think may well materialize. The system needs to be resilient to the risks of events that are improbable but possible. And, life being what it is, it must also have resilience to risks that simply cannot be foreseen – the “unknown unknowns”. To use a familiar but imperfect metaphor, the Monetary Policy Committee is like a driver steering a car down a winding road. It can dimly see the road behind but can only forecast what the road ahead looks like. The instruments usually give unclear or contradictory readings. For all that, the MPC tries to keep the car at the highest speed that can be achieved without risking having to jam on the brakes at the next bend or having to floor the accelerator to prevent stopping.
According to a 2018 global surveyxvi, trust in a better future was at 30% on average in Europe, compared with 45% in the United States and … 66% in India. But knowing where we come from – so many wars, and deep-rooted traumas – should not stop us from asserting the success of our European Union, and what we truly believe in. Just think of what Europeans have been able to accomplish in more than five centuries: from 1492 to the 19th century, from Amsterdam and Madrid to London and Paris, we, Europeans, were the inventors of the world. Yes, Europe also is “bound to leadxvii”, not out of fear but out of hope, not out of violence but out of exemplarity. In the current crisis of globalisation, Europe does not need to keep its head bowed; it should assert and propose a model – its own social, environmental and multilateral model… one that can fulfil the strong expectations of your generation worldwide: respect for our planet, desire for social justice and ethics. As young European leaders, this will be the opportunity and duty of your generation. In this quest, let me quote another illustrious European, Emperor Charles V, born in Gand, 40 km from Bruges. His motto can inspire us: “Plus oultre”… look beyond, take risks and strive for excellence. Good luck to you and thank you for your attention.

Inflation has reached decades-long records due to the significant increase in spending during 2021, world price hikes, and problems in global supply chains. The Central Bank of Chile started its monetary policy response early in 2021 and is taking every measure necessary to bring down inflation. Local authorities have continued to work towards the consolidation of a financial stability and macroprudential framework. On financial stability policy, the mandate of the BCCh includes ensuring the normal functioning of internal and external payments systems, including the role of lender of last resort to the banking system. This gives the BCCh a broad interest in the stability of the overall financial system. Through its semiannual Financial Stability Report, BCCh identifies, monitors and reports on risks and vulnerabilities within the financial system, from a macroprudential perspective. The BCCh took the very first steps into the financial stability territory back in the early 2000s. The first Financial Stability Review of the BCCh was released in 2004, a report that contains a systemic risk assessment and analysis that provides valuable information to all participants in the local financial market, including regulators and other authorities. Thus, during the last two decades, the BCCh has consolidated its financial stability role. In turn, the CMF mandate is to safeguard the proper functioning, development and stability of the financial market, supervising banks, their subsidiaries, the 3 large saving and credit cooperatives, credit card issuers, insurance companies, securities issuers; fund managers; brokers; and financial market infrastructures. Strong coordination is required among financial authorities to preserve financial stability.