samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In this way, all those who wish to closely follow our reasoning can do so and it creates a basis for assessing our evaluations and decisions. I can also mention that the Riksbank Governor appears before the Riksdag Committee on Finance twice a year to answer questions on monetary policy. On the first occasion every year we publish an Inflation Report that contains a special appendix with material for assessing monetary policy over the past 2-3 years. This contains, for instance, comparisons of our forecasts with other forecasts and with outcomes. In addition, we Executive Board members hold around forty published speeches every year, where we can describe our joint or our individual view of economic developments. We also publish information in our quarterly journal and other publications issued by the Riksbank. The Riksbank thus publishes a substantial amount of information that enables the general public to examine our analyses and to understand how monetary policy decisions are made. At the same time, it creates the conditions for a serious debate on monetary policy. This is a major change compared with central bank history. Monetary policy is assessed regularly in Sweden. In 1999, the Riksdag Committee on Finance made the assessment that the Riksbank’s increased independence meant that there was a greater need to examine and assess monetary policy. Since then, the Committee has annually examined the monetary policy conducted over the past three years in connection with a more in-depth review of our activities.

In Sweden our forecast, which we reported in the February Inflation Report, is that increasing capacity utilisation over the coming years will lead to inflation gradually rising. However, continued low inflation despite high growth is a development that requires consideration. As I see it, it is possible to take such a scenario into account, with low inflation over a long period of time, within the framework of flexible application of the inflation target. However, confidence in the inflation target is of central importance here, which makes considerable demands on us, to be clear that the policy we conduct is in line with our strategy  2  See, for instance, Borio, C. and A. Filardo, (2006), “Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation”, BIS, Work in progress. BIS Review 25/2006  5  to attain the inflation target in the best possible way. In a situation where, for example, there is reason to expect that inflation will be below target for a long period of time and we do not intend to bring it back on target until a couple of years from now, we should explain our intentions clearly. And this should then be taken into account when we are assessed. Once again, it is largely a question of openness and clarity.
Even in the USA after the FED lift-off, interest rates still qualify as historically low and the tightening cycle has been announced as “gradual”. Now why should we, as central bankers, care about ultra-low rates? For many reasons, notably because they can lead to a misallocation of resources or bubbles, and because they are currently associated with persistently low inflation or “lowflation” – shall I even say “noflation”? The latter is of particular concern given the costs resulting from price or wage rigidities and distortions, as well as the risk that we might fall into deflation. My role as “opening speaker” is modestly to stress some puzzles and challenges we face. You will then have the whole day to provide the best answers. To kick off, I’ll focus on where we stand, with two puzzles, and then on what monetary policy should/can do, with four challenges. I. Where do we stand? And to start with, what is ultra-low? A lot of what matters for CBs is low or ultra-low compared to history, notably in advanced economies (AEs): first, inflation, be it headline or core, realized or expected; second, interest rates on safe assets, whether short or long, nominal or real, ex post or ex ante; third, term premia in spite of measurement uncertainties. And all variables have been decreasing and are now low at the same time which is new.

On a larger scale, uncertainties pertaining to the post-crisis international monetary and reserve currency system – the one in which dominant currencies are likely to grow weaker and newly emerging currencies grow stronger – will also pose important challenges to monetary, exchange rate, and reserve management policies. Ladies and Gentlemen, To tackle some of these challenges, we are very fortunate to have with us today many distinguished speakers from both academia and central banks. In the morning sessions, we will hear from the academic point of view the implications of the changing financial and regulatory landscape. During lunch time, our keynote speaker will share his insights on the future of the international monetary system and what implications entail for policymakers. BIS Review 146/2010  1  Later in the afternoon, we hope to bridge academic thinking with practical policy considerations. Let me conclude by saying that it is impossible to have answers to all the big questions in a one-day conference like this. But I am sure we can contribute to the better understanding of many difficult issues and come up with useful policy recommendations. Most of all, I hope that this forum will be followed by continuing discussions and cooperation among all participants, which would be a true measure of success of the conference. I wish you all a fruitful meeting and memorable stay in Bangkok. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 146/2010
2 Biancotti C., Borin A., Cingano F., Tommasino P., Veronese G., "The case for a coordinated COVID-19 response: No country is an island", 18 March 2020 3 Prof. Dr FRAU-MEIGS D., "Societal Costs of Fake News in the Digital Single Market", University Sorbonne Nouvelle, Paris, France, European Parliament's Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection, January 2019 4 Nunes L.M, Colaço A., Marques R., Oliveira M., "When reaching is no longer enough: 8 tips to engage with Central Banks' data users", Banco de Portugal, ISI, 63 World Statistics Congress, 2021  3/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches

Dimitar Bogov: Creating an environment for sustainable economic growth in Macedonia Opening address by Mr Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the 13th Macedonian Stock Exchange Annual Conference, Skopje, 4 May 2012. *  *  *  Honorable Mr. Zoran Stavrevski, Deputy President of the Government of the Republic of Macedonia and Minister of Finance, Honorable Mr. Ivan Steriev, Manager of the Macedonian Stock Exchange, Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, During my last year’s address at this conference I announced that “the National Bank will create environment for sustainable economic growth through price stability, stable Denar exchange rate and stable, competitive banking sector which will produce sound credit growth. In order to achieve this, I will seek to conduct policy of optimal level of reference interest rate and optimal level of prudential banking regulation. In my view, optimal interest rate is the lowest interest rate that provides Denar exchange rate stability and price stability, and optimal prudent banking regulation is a regulation that provides necessary bank liquidity and solvency, without being a regulatory burden on the banks’ balance sheets”. Concerning the latter, in September last year, we integrated the Denar and foreign currency liquidity rate in a single liquidity rate. Simultaneously, we recognized a long-term character of twenty percent of time deposits that fall due, promising that this percent will increase in future. With these measures, we ensured larger liquidity management flexibility and higher income for the banks without deteriorating liquidity indicators.
Robotisation has put the brakes on offshoring production from high-cost countries. So far there are few signs that the pandemic will lead to more permanent changes in global trade. Despite some disruptions in global supply chains and goods transport, trade in goods has held up well. Following a temporary decline, trade picked up through 2020. Travel and tourism are among the industries profoundly affected by the pandemic. Much of the tourist traffic is likely to rebound once we can cross borders freely again, but many have discovered this past year that online meetings are also an effective alternative. This may result in less travel activity than before. Environmental considerations suggest the same. During the pandemic, national governments have had to focus primarily on giving their own population the best possible protection against serious health consequences. At the same time, this past year has clearly demonstrated the importance of crosscultural and cross-border cooperation. Thanks to an extensive international research effort, effective vaccines could be quickly rolled out. Let’s hope that it is this experience that we carry forward. In the long run, all countries benefit from open borders, common standards and international cooperation. 7  A MORE ACTIVE FISCAL POLICY ABROAD  NORGES BANK  During the pandemic, economic support measures have been massive. While both monetary policy and fiscal policy action was quickly taken, fiscal policy took the lead (Chart 6). This was the case everywhere the pandemic has raged, not only in Norway.

6  anticipates reducing the quantity of reserve balances to a level “appreciably below that seen in recent years but larger than before the financial crisis.” While the FOMC has articulated how the balance sheet will be reduced, there remains uncertainty about the long-run size and composition of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Importantly, the size and composition will depend on growth in the various non-reserve liabilities, demand for reserve balances, and the future monetary policy implementation framework. The FOMC has not made any decisions about the long-run monetary policy implementation framework; however, the minutes from the July/August FOMC meeting suggest that the Committee will likely resume a discussion of operating frameworks in the near future. 17 It is also not known how non-reserve and reserve liabilities will evolve going forward; however, our regular surveys give us a sense of how some market participants are viewing many of these components, which we show in Figure 7. In particular, the surveys ask respondents about their expectations for the size and composition of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, on average, in 2025, under the assumption of no return to the zero lower bound. The responses serve as a good proxy for expectations about the long-run size of the balance sheet. The median expectations are for the balance sheet to be $ trillion on average in 2025 and for reserve balances to be $ billion, or about $ trillion below their current level.
If necessary, it will therefore remain active in the foreign exchange market to influence monetary conditions. Thank you very much for your attention. I will now be happy to answer your questions. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1

Ardian Fullani: Overview of Albania’s latest monetary and economic developments and outlook Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, on the Monetary Policy Decision of the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council, Tirana, 30 April 2014. *  *  *  Today, on April 30, 2014, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania considered and approved the Quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Given Albania’s latest monetary and economic developments and discussions on their outlook, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania decided to keep the main interest rate unchanged, at 2.75%. The Council deems that inflationary pressures on the economy remain subdued. Under these circumstances, the monetary policy will continue to be stimulating in the period ahead, which will provide the necessary monetary conditions for compliance with our inflation target in the medium run. Let me now proceed with an overview of economic developments and key issues discussed at today’s meeting. Data for the first quarter of 2014 are generally in line with our previous assessments of the Albanian economy and financial situation. Weak aggregate demand continues to characterise the economy, further impacting almost all the economic and financial parameters in the country. In response to the weak aggregate demand, economic growth remains low and the Albanian economy continues to operate below its potential. The spare production capacities, both in the labour and capital markets, are reflected in low increase of employment and production costs, followed by weak inflationary pressures.
The first DSGE models were developed in the early 1980s, and were closely linked to real business cycle theory which Kydland and Prescott pioneered. These models included elements of classical theory such as perfect competition, flexible prices and market clearing. A main thesis of real business cycle theory is that not only is long-term economic growth, but also the business cycle, driven from the supply side, specifically by an uneven development in technology. Lags in the economy were linked to real variables in these models, for example that it takes time to install new capital. A result of this theory was that stabilisation policy is superfluous. The one-sided focus on technology shocks as a driving force of the business cycle drew criticism from many economists. The DSGE models have been further developed over the past decade and they have gained a more prominent role. Important additions are Keynesian elements such as monopolistic competition and nominal rigidities. Monopolistic competition means that firms have market power and set prices as a mark-up on their marginal costs. In the more recent DSGE models, prices and wages are also rigid in the short term, partly reflecting contracts and costs associated with price adjustments. These two assumptions imply that production is determined by demand in the short term and that monetary policy affects the real economy. Therefore, more recent DSGE models have features that combine elements of both Neoclassical and Keynesian models.

If the money you hold is losing its value, you have every incentive to get rid of it as quickly as possible. If, on the other hand, it is gaining value fast, you want to hoard it and store it. In any case, swift changes in purchasing power are the mortal enemy of any good currency. Some bitcoin enthusiasts put forward that this problem will moderate over time as more and more bitcoins are mined and the “velocity” of bitcoin money demand increases with more 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  universal acceptance of the cryptocurrency. I don’t think so, since there is no guarantee of purchasing power stability for any commodity-based money. Its key principle is exogenous “money supply”, which in my eyes invites inherent volatility in value. From this perspective, bitcoin is the antithesis of our elastic money system, which is based on the notion that to keep the value of money and purchasing power relatively constant and predictable, the amount of money has to change flexibly over time. This is the lesson of the late 19th and 20th century in monetary policy: price stability matters. People take this as such a self-evident statement that typically they do not even think about it and take it for granted. But this observation does nothing less than confirm the most beneficial feature of our money and the monetary policy behind it – people use the currency and don’t have to think about why, in fact, they trust it.
Based on our experience over this period, it is Norges Bank’s assessment that the monetary policy framework has worked well. Inflation has been predominantly low and stable since inflation targeting was introduced in 2001. Average annual consumer price inflation has been close to, albeit somewhat below, 2.5 percent. At the same time, employment has consistently been more stable since 2001 than in previous periods, in spite of the fact that the Norwegian economy has been exposed to substantial shocks. Chart: Inflation The inflation target has anchored inflation expectations. At the same time, there has been sufficient room for flexibility and the exercise of judgement to enable monetary policy to dampen the impact on output and employment when the economy has been exposed to shocks. Our experience has shown us the crucial importance of flexibility in inflation targeting to enable us to make the appropriate trade-offs in response to these shocks. The time horizon for achieving the target must be sufficiently long, and the balance of risks, including risks related to 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  financial stability, must be taken into account. We have also experienced the important role the exchange rate has played as shock absorber, particularly during the financial crisis and in periods of falling oil prices. At the same time, the interest rate level abroad places limitations on the room for manoeuvre in monetary policy in a small open economy such as Norway. Monetary policy’s main task is to provide the economy with a nominal anchor.

Oil revenue spending over time is required to correspond to the expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global, which has been revised down from four to three percent. In our analyses published in March this year, we have assumed that oil revenue spending as a share of the economy will remain approximately unchanged in the years ahead. This will entail lower growth in public demand than in recent years. At the same time, monetary policy continues to be expansionary. According to Norges Bank’s March 2017 forecast, the key policy rate will remain close to today’s level in the years ahead, followed by a gradual rise from 2019. Chart: Key policy rate and inflation ahead In 2016, the pace of consumer price inflation was at its highest for many years, driven to a great extent by the considerable depreciation of the krone up to the beginning of last year. Inflation has slowed since last summer and our projections in the March Monetary Policy Report indicate that inflation will slow further in the years ahead. At the same time, inflation expectations seem to be firmly anchored. The upturn in the real economy appears to have taken hold and unemployment has declined. With a key policy rate close to today’s level, there are prospects that inflation will pick up again further ahead. The Ministry of Finance is currently assessing the need to modernise the regulation on monetary policy. After more than fifteen years, this is a natural step.
The opportunities which enlargement would provide for investors should not be underestimated given that Europe is the region having the greatest concentration of regional trade agreements with third countries, and that it is also the region with the highest proportion of imports that is outsourced from partners covered by such agreements. The resultant increase in employment opportunities should compensate for any jobs lost through restructuring. The prospect of access to a large market will not, of course, alone guarantee larger inflows of FDI. Investment decisions are not based solely on considerations of market size. Unfortunately, Malta is at a disadvantage in terms of other relevant criteria such as resource endowments and transport costs. Such deficiencies, therefore, have to be made up for through other factors, including a sound  19  It could also be argued that the additional tax revenue from the application of the CET to imports from non-EU countries would make up at least partly for any losses arising from the removal of duties on intra-EU trade and trade with EU partners covered by reciprocal agreements. 20  The Cotonou Agreement additionally foresees that the number of developing countries that will continue to receive nonreciprocal access to EU markets under other agreements of this type is expected to decline, although there could remain a certain degree of asymmetry in timing to take into account the specific needs of developing countries.

BIS Review 90/1999  2  Public sector The financial position of the public sector has been strengthened appreciably in recent years, partly as a result of decreased unemployment, but also because interest expenditure on government debt has been reduced as a consequence of lower interest rates and debt repayment. This has been accompanied by comparatively high tax payments from households as well as the corporate sector. For 1998 the financial surplus – measured as public sector revenue less expenditure – was almost SEK 40 billion, which is equivalent to over 2% of GDP. In recent years the central government budget process has been changed with a view to tightening the control of government spending. The new budget process includes a spending ceiling that sets the maximum level for central government expenditures. In addition to the new budget process, the goal has been established of achieving a general government financial surplus equivalent to 2% of GDP over the business cycle. Thus, the goal is formulated in terms of the average over the business cycle, not as an annual target. These rules do not owe their existence to happenstance. Both the expenditure ceiling and the goal of a government financial surplus over the business cycle serve to promote greater confidence in economic policy. The direction of budget policy, like the monetary stance, is highly important for economic developments. The observance of these rules is important. Stable fundamental rules encourage economic agents to make long-term decisions.