samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the medium term, various elements suggest that investment will regain strength. For the time being, the lower basis for comparison that the adjustment will leave in its 2019 growth will help to raise the 2020 record, the year for which the baseline scenario estimates a 5.1% growth in GFCF. The capital-to-GDP ratio has remained low in recent years (under 22% in real terms), with productive investment—excluding mining and housing— that practically grew zero in the 2016-2018 period. Plus, that the strong immigration of recent years reduced the capital/labor ratio. Absorbing this greater workforce requires adjusting the capital stock, so that, absent a more significant change in the vision about productivity, and/or the various costs associated with the formalities of investment projects, it should resume its former dynamism. The domestic conditions to finance this greater investment are favorable: local interest rates have remained low (Figure 9), something that will be reinforced with the decision of the last Monetary Policy Meeting. In the same way, external financing conditions have remained favorable and, in fact, the interest rates of US Treasury bonds are also low. All this occurs in a context of no imbalances in the local financial system, no elements hindering the flow of financing, and a bounded fiscal deficit. All in all, the first-quarter evolution of investment puts a note of caution in case the slowdown proves more persistent, especially because of the higher uncertainty abroad. For now, this has reduced asset prices and, with it, the incentives to invest.

Large shares of the sizeable revenues from the petroleum sector over the past 20 years have been transferred to the oil fund. Norway’s sound public finances have been a great advantage to the economy, particularly through the financial crisis. But the management of the government’s large petroleum revenues through our 40 year-long oil history has not always been equally well planned. In the mid-1970s, the budget deficit – including petroleum revenues – reached a high level. And we could not know then that oil prices would more than double a few years later – with the second oil shock in 1979, known as OPEC II. But we learned from our mistakes. The oil fund mechanism in 1990 and the fiscal rule in 2001 were introduced to discipline fiscal policy in such a way that Norway’s petroleum wealth would also benefit future generations. Oil fund assets are now equivalent to more than twice the GDP of Norway’s mainland economy, and the oil fund, or the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), is today one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds. The GPFG represents the nation’s savings, to be managed for the benefit of both current and future generations. As an investor, the GPFG makes capital available to other countries for economic activity, and the return on that capital will depend on the economic performance of those countries. The GPFG is a long-term, responsible investor. The objective of investment management is to achieve the highest possible return at an acceptable level of risk.
We cannot answer all of these questions in a year – so an early priority, with your help, will be to identify the most pertinent areas to focus on. The third theme of the blueprint is access. Access to a settlement account in RTGS is currently open to any bank, building society, broker-dealer or CCP that holds a Bank of England reserves account or any financial market infrastructure whose participation is judged by the Bank to be enhancing to financial stability. 11 Compared with similar systems in other major jurisdictions, access to RTGS is relatively highly “tiered”: almost 90% of the roughly 400 licensed banks and smaller banks choose to settle indirectly through a correspondent bank. In order to enhance financial stability by reducing dependencies between large banks and smaller banks, the Bank of England and CHAPS Co undertook a de-tiering initiative which has resulted in a greater number of banks having direct access to RTGS. There is a question about whether we should go further and encourage or require a much larger number of banks to become direct members of major UK payment systems and have an RTGS settlement account, in order to spread the settlement risk benefits of RTGS more widely. The emergence of a new breed of on-bank payments service providers, regulated by the FCA, has extended that debate further, since it is currently a requirement of a number of retail systems – in particular FPS and Bacs – that direct participants should have a settlement account at the Bank.

Furthermore, a resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic cannot be ruled out. Monetary policy tightening Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to return to our monetary policy. I would like to set out the rationale behind the monetary policy move we have made today. My colleague Andréa Maechler will discuss the adjustment of the threshold factor later. We have decided to raise the SNB policy rate by half a percentage point because there are now signs of inflation also spreading to goods and services that are not directly affected by the war in Ukraine and the consequences of the pandemic. In the current environment, price increases are being passed on more quickly – and are also being more readily accepted – than was the case until recently. There is the threat of second-round effects becoming entrenched if inflation remains above 2% for a longer period. By raising the SNB policy rate today, we aim to counter the increased inflationary pressure. Since the last monetary policy assessment, the development of the Swiss franc exchange rate has also contributed to the rise in inflation. The Swiss franc has depreciated in trade-weighted terms, despite the higher inflation abroad. Thus the inflation imported from abroad into Switzerland has increased. Another consequence of this depreciation coupled with significantly higher inflation abroad is that the Swiss franc is no longer highly valued. What is the outlook for our monetary policy going forward?
14.1.2020  Informational breakfast “The European Banking Union” Club Diálogos para la Democracia Margarita Delgado Deputy Governor  Good morning. Many thanks, Miguel, for your kind introductory words. My appreciation, too, to Unicaja and the Club Diálogos para la Democracia, in particular their chairman, Antonio Gavilanes, for inviting me to take part in today’s colloquium. As you well know, Diálogos para la Democracia was founded in 1976 as a debate forum that sought to provide ideas and solutions to the numerous problems arising in a society which, at that time, was in transition towards democracy. Evidently, societies evolve, and new problems arise which we must address. This is why this type of forum remains as necessary today as ever. Undoubtedly, since our democratic transition, one of the key landmarks has been our accession to what was then known as the European Economic Community on 1 January 1986, over 34 years ago. The importance of this landmark in shaping our society and our economy has been enormous. Despite this importance, I believe that knowledge in Spanish society of Europe’s institutions and regulatory framework is, very often, scant. This is why I greatly appreciate this opportunity to discuss a European project I consider most important, namely the Banking Union. Allow me to begin by acknowledging that this is a topic I am somewhat biased about.

Since then, Norway has benefitted greatly from the opportunities that the petroleum sector has provided. The spillover effects from the oil sector to the wider Norwegian economy are substantial. Oil-related jobs can be found throughout the country. More than 10 percent of all employed persons in Norway either directly or indirectly work for the oil industry. Innovation and skills development in the industry have also benefitted other sectors. From where Norway stands today, one may get the impression that our history as an oil nation is only a story about success. This is not the case. Chart: Oil and gas revenues and government spending Policymakers’ handling of Norway’s newly discovered petroleum wealth got off to a rather bumpy start. During the first 25 years of oil production, Norway experienced two deep recessions. Both downturns were rooted in wildly optimistic income expectations. In the 1970s, public spending surged before oil export revenue started to kick in. Eventually the government had to tighten fiscal policy. In the 1980s, a credit-fuelled consumption boom in the private sector led to necessary cut-backs after the oil price plunge in 1986. The turbulence made clear how vulnerable a small economy is to terms of trade disturbances. Let that part of our history stand as a warning. But lessons were learned, and formed the basis for the framework that was put in place from 1990 and onwards. During the past 50 years, Norway has experienced how oil prices can change almost overnight in response to international politics, economic disturbances or disruptive technologies.
This is in addition to our other Government support schemes that FinTech players can benefit from: i) SPRING Singapore will provide Singaporean start-ups grants matching $ for every $ raised, up to a cap of $ ii) The National Research Foundation will co-invest, together with a technology incubator, up to 85% of an investment into a Singapore-based start-up. Deep skills and continuous learning 9 Not all of us can be entrepreneurs. But we all have to build the skills and expertise necessary to power the digital economy. The financial sector in particular has to build new capabilities. 10 We are often caught up in speculation as to which jobs technology will destroy and what kinds of new jobs it will create. The likelihood is that many jobs will remain but most jobs will be transformed, requiring new skills and capabilities to make the most of new technologies. 11 In the financial sector, there is already growing need for skills in data analytics, in digital and mobile user interfaces, and in application development, in addition to core finance skills. Take for example bank relationship managers who provide wealth management advisory services. They are unlikely to be completely replaced by robo-advisers. But relationship managers will increasingly use data analytics tools to analyse client profiles and offer better, customised financial solutions.

Yet the words “corrupt”, “self-serving” and “greedy” are hard to square with “trustworthiness”, as are opinion polls putting bankers at risk of relegation from the trust league table. Opinion polls of the public are not an objective truth and talk can sometimes be cheap. But it appears these concerns are not confined to financial outsiders: financial insiders appear to harbour serious doubts about their trustworthiness and culture too. As survey in 2013 of financial professionals found, rather remarkably, that over half believed their competitors engaged in illegal or unethical behaviour. 22 A smaller, but still high, fraction of 24% believed their own company engaged in such practices. Similar percentages believed their industry did not fulfil its fiduciary function of putting clients’ interests first. The significance of these findings is not the precise percentages, as striking as these are. More fundamentally, it is because of what they reveal about finance’s perception of itself, the mirror it holds to the social identity of finance. Psychologists and economists have, over recent years, begun to recognise the importance of social identities in explaining otherwise puzzlingly irrational behaviour. 23 A now-famous study examined the academic performance of Afro-Caribbean boys in US schools, which was systemically weak almost irrespective of ability. A large part of the explanation was found to lie in social identities. Specifically, the social identity of young black boys was defined by doing poorly in class.
However, when the maturity composition of borrowing, the level of interest rates and the depth of financial markets are taken into account, it is observed that the fiscal space is not broad enough for countercyclical fiscal policies. Therefore, backing up the short-term increase in budget deficit with a medium-term program ensuring the sustainability of debt dynamics is crucial for maintaining our risk premium at relatively low levels. Accordingly, domestic perceptions regarding public finance are very important for the monetary policy strategy to be implemented in the medium-term, especially after 2011. The global crisis has raised awareness as to the resilience of our financial system and helped risk indicators to perform better compared to other developing countries and enabled a fast ratecut cycle. Thus, single-digits were finally achieved in short-term interest rates after many years. Meanwhile, the level of medium and long-term market interest rates still remain elevated. The present conjuncture offers an important opportunity to achieve and maintain single digits in market interest rates throughout the forecast horizon of three years. Achieving and maintaining single digits in medium and long-term market interest rates will depend on establishing fiscal discipline. The introduction of a satisfactory perspective for fiscal discipline in the upcoming period would not only decrease the risk premium but would also help to  18  BIS Review 103/2009  keep policy rates at low levels for an extended period of time.

Public expenditures, as you can see on the slide, restricted the fall in domestic demand with a contribution of approximately 1.2 points to growth (Figure 23). Figure 22: Contribution to Growth from Figure 23: Contribution to Growth Production Expenditures (Percentage Points)  from  -4 -5 -6  -5.0  Source: TURKSTAT. BIS Review 103/2009  -5.6  -6.6 -8.3  -7.1 Net Exports  -1.9  -3  Change in Stocks  -1.1  -2  0.6  Public Investment  -0.1  0.5  Public Consumption  -1  7.0  Private Investment  0  8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10  Private Consumption  Net Vergi  Services  Construction  Industry  Agriculture  (Percentage Points)  Source: TURKSTAT. 13  Uncertainties in demand conditions driven by the global turmoil lead firms to adopt a cautious approach regarding production activities. In this context, the low capacity utilization rates and the weak course of propensity to invest continue to limit employment conditions. In the first quarter of 2009, with the accelerating slowdown in economic activity, the negative course of the labor market intensified in comparison with the previous quarter, and the increase in unemployment rates continued, also due to the increase in labor force participation rates (Figure 24).
Jarle Bergo: Will strong growth in the banking industry continue? Views on the balance of risks Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at a banking industry seminar on primary capital certificates, Oslo, 13 September 2007. The text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 15 August, Financial Stability Report 1/07 and on previous speeches. *  *  *  Thank you for inviting me to this seminar on primary capital certificates to give an introductory speech on developments in the banking industry and the balance of risks. As we all know, there is a strong global focus on financial institutions and financial markets at present, with frequent use of words such as "turbulence", "problem" and "crisis". I will spend some time on the background to these developments and try to assess the possibility of similar problems in Norway. I will also point to other risk elements that the industry should bear in mind. First, however, I will give a brief review of the economic situation in Norway and how this has affected the banking industry. The Norwegian economy and the financial sector The Norwegian economy is now in a cyclical upturn. Over the past three years, mainland GDP has grown by approximately 4½ per cent annually, and this high rate of growth has continued in 2007.

Combined with higher interest rates, this may reduce profitability in the commercial property market, increasing banks’ losses. Losses on loans to the property industry accounted for a large share of banks’ loan losses during the banking crisis. Outlook for the banking industry Banks in Norway have experienced extremely favourable developments over the past few years: strong lending growth, minimal loan losses, high returns in securities markets and firm cost control. Despite lower interest margins, banks’ net interest income in NOK is rising as a result of strong lending growth. Measured in relation to total assets, however, net interest income is  6  BIS Review 100/2007  falling. In recent years, this has been offset by a reduction in costs. Today’s high debt growth is not sustainable over time, and it is unlikely that the pressure on interest margins will abate. Given these developments, banks must reduce costs or increase income from other sources if they are to maintain their current profitability. To illustrate the effect of lower lending growth on banks’ income, we have carried out a simple calculation where the interest margin is held constant. If lending growth among banks had only been 3 per cent in 2006, banks’ net interest income and pre-tax results would both have been approximately 6 per cent lower this year. The composition of banks’ income has been fairly stable in the past ten years, even though net interest income has become less important since 2002.
As slide 1 suggests, the combination of macroprudential measures taken between 2012 and 2019, in particular the revisions in the self-regulation guidelines, had a dampening effect on both mortgage lending and real estate price growth in this period. The slowdown in mortgage lending growth was particularly strong at banks that were constrained by the SCCyB requirement. 7 Furthermore, macroprudential instruments have contributed to improve the average quality of banks’ assets. Both the SCCyB and the increase in capital cost for high-LTV mortgages have in fact led to a reduction in the share of newly granted mortgages characterised by high LTV ratios. 8 In recent years, as we will see later in more detail, growth in residential real estate prices and mortgage lending has however increased once again. Overall, evidence abroad and in Switzerland suggests that dedicated macroprudential measures, in particular borrower-based instruments, can help to slow down the build-up of vulnerabilities, but cannot fully prevent their increase. This is one of the reasons why it is so important to ensure adequate banking sector resilience. Let me now turn to this important aspect. Strengthening banking sector resilience  Banking sector capitalisation has increased in many countries since the GFC, thanks both to the capital-based instruments put in place after the GFC and to voluntary buffers held by  6  7 8  Cf., for example, Galati, G. and R. Moessner (2018), What Do We Know About the Effects of Macroprudential Policy?

The United States regained strength in the second quarter, thanks to the good performance of private consumption and investment, and better expectations. In Latin America, the growth forecast has been lowered for this year and next in most countries, although with some heterogeneity. In China, government policies have managed to stabilize growth. Our baseline scenario assumes that our trading partners will grow an average 3.6 percent in 2014 and 2015, two tenths of a point less than foreseen in June (table 1). The baseline scenario assumes that the slowdown in the domestic economy will be more persistent than previously expected. Thus, as anticipated, the GDP growth forecast for this  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  year is adjusted to between 1.75 and 2.25 percent, below the June estimate. In 2015, consistently with the low basis of comparison and limited economic dynamism, we expect GDP to grow between 3.0 and 4.0 percent annually. The recovery, though moderate, is based on a greater monetary stimulus and lower market interest rates; stronger fiscal stimulus; increased trading partners’ growth; a real depreciation of the peso; and improved private expectations. As already noted, for this projection, the Board assumes that the medium-term growth of the Chilean economy is between 4 and 4.5 percent. The domestic demand growth forecast for 2014 has also been corrected downward, particularly for investment. This change responds to actual second-quarter indicators that fell short of the forecast, and to the Capital Goods Corporation’s investment projects that were revised downward in the last survey.
[12] Ernst & Young, 2019, “The Impact of Wider Integration of Data Analytics and Automation on  Manpower in the Singapore Financial Services Sector, commissioned by the Institute of Banking and Finance Singapore (IBF) and MAS” [13] Global Climate Risk Index 2020 (data from 1999 to 2018). [14] Median of 2.2% to 2.4% -2020 – Preqin Global Infrastructure Report 2020 [15] Swissre, 2010-2019, Protection Gap Tracker Map [16] Reuters, January 2020, “Green Bond Issuance Hit Record $ billion Last Year [17] OCED, April 2017, “Mobilising Bond Markets for a Low-Carbon Transition” [18] HSBC, November 2020, Asia’s Green Finance Booms  Related News Media Releases https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2021/riding-the-growth-momentum-in-asia  10/11  12/02/2021  "Riding the Growth Momentum in Asia" – Keynote Speech by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director (Markets & Development), …  Published Date: 10 December 2020  MAS Announces Winners of the 2020 Global FinTech Innovation Challenge Under the theme of “Building Resilience, Seizing Opportunities, Emerging Stronger”, three winners for the Global FinTech Hackcelerator and twelve winners for the FinTech Awards have been selected for their solutions that address the challenges faced by the financial industry due to the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change. Media Releases Published Date: 09 December 2020  Singapore and Hungary Strengthen Cooperation in FinTech MAS and the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) have signed a Co-operation Agreement to strengthen cooperation in FinTech innovation between Singapore and Hungary.

One developing area is the need for common green financing language that can crowd in private financing required to green Asia’s economies. Concerns about green washing and the lack of clarity on what constitutes green or transition activities can impede financing flows to these activities. MAS is therefore working with the financial sector to assess the potential of a taxonomy for Singapore-based financial institutions, to facilitate the financial sector to channel capital more eﬀectively to support Asia’s green and transition needs. We are also a member of the International Platform on Sustainable Finance, and will contribute to global eﬀorts in establishing greater inter-operability between existing taxonomies. 23. I note that one of the three panels today will discuss sustainability issues. I believe that this will be the start of the many more useful sessions that the Asian Financial Markets Forum will put together, and this will provide us valuable insights as we continue to progress on the sustainability agenda. Conclusion 24. To conclude, Asian financial markets are in good stead to support the positive growth momentum in Asian economies in this new decade, and the building of a more sustainable world. 25. I thank ACI for organising this event, providing us a front seat and a chance to contribute to the meaningful conversations on important issues to the region. 26. I wish you a fruitful discussion ahead. Thank you. ***  [1] World Bank, January 2021, “Global Economic Prospects.” [2] IMF, October 2020, “World Economic Outlook.” [3] See footnote 1.