samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Whilst I recognise there is uncertainty, I urge firms to explore how different scenarios are relevant to their strategy, to test their specific vulnerabilities and to identify opportunities. Here at the Bank, we have helped create tools to support such analysis.5 And they continue to be enhanced. They include carbon prices consistent with different pathways to net zero to help you identify robust strategies. I encourage you to use them. 5/7  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  And the fourth challenge is that system wide change is complex as the actions of one are dependent on actions of others, so it is important to coordinate action throughout the supply chain. Each firm should be stretching its horizons – building capabilities now that enable action to drive long-term reductions in emissions through their value chain. That does not mean immediately ceasing to deal with high emission counterparties and suppliers. That does not necessarily remove emissions, perhaps chasing them into the shadows instead. Rather, economy-wide emissions reductions will come through proactive engagement with counterparties and suppliers, and decisions aligned to the transition over time. This means understanding the needs of firms up and down the supply chain and having difficult discussions about steps to reduce emissions. And smaller corporates will need help from larger corporates and their financiers to develop their climate expertise. The collaboration between GARP and Chapter Zero we see today shows how effective that can be in driving faster progress.

The time to push ahead on tackling climate change Speech given by Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England Corporation of London Green Horizon Summit, Mansion House 9 November 2020  1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  It is a great pleasure at least to have the opportunity to meet virtually. Today, I want to focus on how we ensure that we get back to the vital subject of tackling climate change and the role of the financial system. First, I want to say what a pleasure it is to be sharing a platform today – so to speak – with Mark Carney. As I have told Mark quite a few times, timing is everything, and midnight on March 15th was an interesting choice of date to hand over as Governor. But let me also say that in everything that has happened since at the Bank we have benefitted from the many things that Mark did during his term, and for that we owe him great thanks. Mark has gone on to push forward his deep commitment to tackling climate change, and the role of the financial system in doing that. There have been times since March when we have faced very stark decisions in the face of the Covid crisis. We decided in the spring to prioritise preserving people’s jobs and livelihoods in this emergency, and as far as possible the businesses that provide employment and the life blood of the economy.
So we also have to take a close interest in developments in overseas and international financial markets. The international bond market is of course a key example. We try to analyse the information in market prices and other data. But the real understanding of the latest developments comes from talking to market participants. Credit risk transfer markets This is particularly important when it comes to financial innovation. In recent years, instruments and markets for the transfer of credit risk have been a particular focus of change. New ways have been found to securitise cashflows which could not previously be traded, to unbundle the credit risk from loans and bonds, and to re-bundle credit exposures in different ways to create securities with different pay-offs. BIS Review 15/2001  1  The distinction between a loan and a bond is becoming increasingly blurred. Individual loans are sold into the secondary loan market, although some companies remain reluctant to see their debt traded in this way. And portfolios of loans and other cash flows, ranging from mortgage payments to recording royalties, are sold to special purpose vehicles for securitisation into tranches with different risk characteristics and maturities, from AAA to junk, and from commercial paper to long-term bonds. Portfolios of bonds are also repackaged, sliced and diced in a similar way to create collateralised bond obligations. The new area of growth at present, however, is not in these sales of assets to remove them from the balance sheet.

The employment protection and household income support measures already approved should contribute to lessening the vulnerability of the households most affected. Also, many of the structural measures aimed at improving productivity or reducing unemployment and job insecurity are also key to reducing inequalities. Pushing through the right design and application of the minimum living income The recently approved minimum living income could contribute, in coordination with regional schemes, to reducing the level of extreme poverty. It will be important in this connection to assess its practical application and, in particular, whether the eligibility requirements established are effective in supporting the most vulnerable groups. Its design must also provide sufficient incentives for beneficiaries to join the labour market and avoid any switching to informal sectors. Bolstering housing affordability policies A further question concerns rental housing affordability problems for certain groups. This is a global phenomenon which is particularly noticeable in the metropolitan areas of the advanced economies. 8  The international evidence shows that policies aimed at increasing the supply of rental housing are the most effective in tackling these problems. Many countries have opted in particular to combine public guarantees and tax incentives for the rental housing-promoting private sector. It is also crucial to ensure legal certainty for owners. 4.5. Steering the transition to a more sustainable economy Combating climate change and steering the transition to a more sustainable economy are other fundamental challenges our society faces.
At the aggregate level, most observers – including the Banque de France – would point to a prolonged period of excessive risk taking in credit markets fueled by liquidity expansion at the world level. This was most apparent in the strong developments of LBOs, mostly financed through leveraged (i.e. with weak covenants) loans. According to this interpretation, we may be witnessing the burst of a credit bubble. But there is also a deeper, more structural, element to the current turmoil. This crisis is the first in a disintermediated credit world. While, previously, loans were originated by banks, kept on their balance-sheet and monitored for the entire life of the loan, the process is to a large extent dissociated today: the loan is originated by a first entity, then bundled together with other loans as a structured product by another entity, then sold to final investors.

ASEAN regulators have taken on a number of initiatives to reduce costs of businesses through the support of greater connectivity, mutual recognition agreements and greater cohesiveness of rules and regulations. Additionally, usage of local currencies as a means of payment and settlement will facilitate our intra-region trade and investment. Common infrastructures for cross border payment and settlement such as through the Asian Payment Network are important to increasing efficiency of doing businesses and reducing costs of remittances and transfers. If we all work together in our various capacities we can together strengthen our region and improve ASEAN people’s standards of living. Ladies and Gentlemen, To sum up, I strongly believe that bankers play a critical role in the future of ASEAN economies and people’s lives. ASEAN banks, given their large scale and power of intellectual and capital resources, must be the force that drives our region forward and improve people’s quality of lives. During this period of VUCA world and changes in economic environment with technology disrupting business landscapes, we must focus on longer term goals. Working together, ASEAN banks must commit to strengthening our regional growth and to ensuring 5  sustainable development. Instilling proper behaviours and cultures into the organization and practicing sustainable banking will strengthen us from within. Looking at today’s agenda, I am delighted that ASEAN bankers will engage and work together to find ways to meaningfully impact our region on issues ranging from digital and fintech to sustainable finance.
The Federal Reserve responded to the slowing of the recovery in midyear 2010 by beginning a second round of large-scale asset purchase programs. Those purchases are resulting in a rough tripling of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (Chart 42).   U.S. economic conditions are currently quite far away from levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of the pursuit of the highest level of employment consistent with price stability. I’ve discussed the high unemployment and unused productive capacity in the United States. Let’s turn to inflation.   While trend inflation is quite low at the moment, we see it likely to be near the low point of this cycle. The rate of inflation for nonenergy services is beginning to increase, led by faster increases in apartment rents (Chart 36). A firming of demand along with a decline of the exchange value of the dollar should begin to put upward pressure on nonfood, nonenergy goods prices.   However, underlying inflation fundamentals suggest relatively low trend inflation for some time:      A substantial amount of slack in the economy, reflected in the sharp deceleration of core services prices – and the United States is a services economy (Chart 35).   Relatively wide profit margins, so that firms facing very competitive output markets are able to absorb changes in energy and commodity prices. Moreover, unit labor costs are still falling (Chart 37).   Inflation expectations remain well anchored (Chart 38).

  Commercial and industrial (business) loans on bank balance sheets and consumer credit (nonmortgage) have begun to expand (Chart 26). Fourth, the U.S. economy still faces painful structural adjustments in the housing and government sectors that pose significant downside risks.   The excess inventory of vacant homes, particularly single-family units, remains substantial (Chart 28). As a result, the number of housing starts has fallen to essentially frictional (replacement) levels and remain there (Chart 29). A large pipeline of loans in foreclosure and loans seriously delinquent still exists (Chart 31). The ratio of foreclosures to delinquencies over 90 days has fallen substantially, under the combined impacts of efforts to work out loan modifications with borrowers, decisions by lenders to slow foreclosures to avoid the deleterious impact of property vacancy, and the sheer volume of foreclosures relative to the legal and financial infrastructure designed to handle them. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches    Home prices have come under renewed downward pressure, a concern because of its impact on household net worth and spending (Chart 30). Some signs that the market for distressed housing (short sales and foreclosures) is separating from the main housing market may be a positive indication that market forces are starting to work through the housing oversupply in a process similar to that usually seen for distressed real and financial assets.   State and local governments have been cutting employment and will likely continue to do so over the year ahead (Chart 32).
It is essential that this cooperative approach should be maintained in the future. Otherwise, we would run the risk of seeing the degree of integration of financial systems slip backwards, and that, along with the trade protectionism we have so far managed to avoid, would be a most negative consequence of the crisis. Thank you for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5

Arthur Yuen: Promoting economic and social development in Asia Welcome remarks by Mr Arthur Yuen, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (on behalf of Mr Norman Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority), at the seminar on "President Jin Liqun on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s Operations and Projects", Hong Kong, 8 November 2016. * * * President Jin, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, Good morning. It is my pleasure to welcome you to this seminar on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)’s Operations and Projects, organised by the HKMA Infrastructure Financing Facilitation Office (IFFO). On behalf of the HKMA, I’m honoured to welcome President Jin to Hong Kong to meet with leaders from the financial and business sectors who have an interest in infrastructure project planning and management. I am delighted to see the strong level of interest and the diversity of business leaders represented in the field. AIIB is an important establishment in promoting economic and social development in Asia. Boasting an initial capital of $ billion and a founding membership of 57 countries, AIIB came into operation in January 2016 with a mandate in the development of infrastructure and other productive sectors in Asia, including energy and power, transportation and telecommunications, rural infrastructure and agriculture development, water supply and sanitation, environmental protection, urban development and logistics. As we are all aware, President Jin has played an instrumental role in shaping up the formation and the guiding principles of AIIB.
Third, if borrowers and investors did not embrace an orderly collateral liquidation mechanism, supervisory oversight could be brought to bear to limit the use of tri-party repo funding on the grounds that it is still an unstable source of funds. For example, the use of tri-party repo could be restricted unless borrowers demonstrated that there was an adequate means of orderly collateral liquidation upon the failure of a major dealer. Turning next to the issue of money market mutual funds, further reform to directly address the incentive for investors to run is essential for financial stability. In November, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) put out for comment three alternative paths forward:13 1. Moving to a floating net asset value (NAV). 2. Retaining a stable NAV, but adding a new NAV buffer and a minimum balance requirement. The minimum balance would be at risk for 30 days following withdrawals. If the fund subsequently “broke the buck” during this period by suffering losses greater than the size of its NAV buffer, the minimum balance would be first in line to absorb these losses. 3. A larger NAV buffer than in the second alternative, but without a minimum balance at risk buffer. I have stated my views on money fund reform before.14 Although any of these proposals – depending on the fine print of course – would likely be an improvement over the status quo, the first and third proposals don’t fully eliminate the incentives to run.

I don’t think we should be comfortable with a situation in which extensive maturity transformation continues to take place without the appropriate safeguards against runs and fire sales. Pretending the problem does not exist, or dealing with it only ex post through emergency facilities cannot be consistent with our financial stability objectives. The issue of the social value created by market-based financial intermediation and appropriate scope and terms associated with a lender of last resort function are complex ones that require further study and analysis. However, regardless of where we come out on these questions, we must make the basic structure of the wholesale funding market as sound as possible. Thus, we must push ahead with tri-party and money fund reform. Thank you for your attention. I would be happy to take a few questions. 10  BIS central bankers’ speeches
It is not surprising, therefore, that although unemployment has been broadly stable over the past two years at around 2½ million, a rate of about 8%, it has risen in recent months, especially among young people. And total output remains around 4½% below its peak three years ago. Despite depressed levels of activity, inflation has been well above our 2% target. This morning’s confirmation that CPI inflation rose to 5.2% in September was in line with the expectations of the MPC at the time of our August Inflation Report. That is likely to be at, or close to, the peak, and we expect inflation now to start to fall back, as it did in the months following the peak in inflation in September 2008. Nevertheless, it will seem odd to many that at a time of high and rising inflation, the MPC has eased policy further. So let me explain why the Committee considered it necessary two weeks ago to resume its programme of asset purchases. In contrast to headline inflation, domestically generated inflation remains subdued – and on some measures barely above zero. Increases in energy prices, import prices and VAT account for the current high level of inflation. Once the effect of these temporary factors begins to dissipate, inflation should fall back sharply early next year. A persistent margin of spare capacity in the economy, and the recent deterioration in demand prospects linked to the crisis in financial markets, will add to the downward pressure on inflation in the medium term.

And Norges Bank has been assigned a clear responsibility for ensuring price stability. We are well poised to tackle inflation while avoiding large costs in the form of high unemployment. The Storting has granted Norges Bank independence to set interest rates. With that independence comes substantial responsibility. The decisions we make have far-reaching consequences for a great many people. That is why it is important for us to be open about the basis for our assessments and the trade-offs we make. It is a sign of a healthy society that we engage in debate about different issues, including monetary policy. Transparency also involves acknowledging uncertainty. The past few years have reminded us that unexpected events can abruptly change the economic outlook. But there should never be any doubt that Norges Bank will do the job we have been given – to ensure low and stable inflation. Norges Bank  Economic perspectives 2023  12
It would be consistent with those studies which find a longer-term flattening of the Phillips Curve that predates the crisis. But it might have intensified with the “Uberisation” of, and other influences on, the UK labour market, which may have left workers more atomised. Greater contestability across international labour markets and the greater integration of the global labour pool would also fall into this category. 13  Finally, a third explanation would be that headline unemployment might be understating the amount of slack left in the labour market. At the same time as actual unemployment has been falling, there have been a number of structural changes in the labour market that are likely to have shifted the equilibrium  13  For more detail, see: Carney, M (2017), “[De]Globalisation and inflation”, 2017 IMF Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture, 18 September 2017. 11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  11  unemployment rate. For example, higher educational attainment, increased use of online job advertising, and increased flexibility in the labour market are likely to have increased matching efficiency and lowered job destruction rates. That would have been consistent with the fact that broader measures of domestically generated inflation also remained below levels that would be consistent with inflation at target in the medium term.

From an economic perspective it was also hard to find other factors that could have contributed to such a sharp slowdown: the world economy had continued to grow, and financial conditions had remained accommodative. Chart 10: Snow effects on GDP revisions Preliminary estimate  Latest estimate  2009 Q4  2010 Q1  2010 Q4  2013 Q1 -0.6  -0.4  -0.2  0.0  0.2  0.4  0.6  0.8  Percentage changes on a quarter earlier  At the same time, the labour market continued to perform robustly. Employment continued to rise, which – given its correlation with GDP, which if anything has become more contemporaneous in recent years – would  13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  13  suggest all else equal that GDP was also growing. Underlying regular pay growth continued to pick up in line with our forecasts. Given all this, it seemed to me and to the MPC that the most likely explanation for the apparent weak data in the run up to our May meeting was that it was a temporary, weather-related softening. And we continued to see the trade-off between slack and inflation as much diminished. In fact last month as part of our continuing efforts to make our thinking more transparent, we published our estimate of excess supply (or slack) in the economy for the first time.
Initiatives are already underway to resolve such weaknesses through mergers and recapitalisation of such finance companies through strategic investors. It should also be mentioned that in addition to the Board of Directors, the senior management of these institutions are also equally responsible for the operations of the institutions. The Central  19  Bank will consider implementing the legal provisions against the errant senior management, if warranted, in the interest of depositors. In mid-2017, we set up an ‘Enforcement Division’ within the Legal and Compliance Department of the Central Bank to carry out duties relating to enforcement and resolution issues pertaining to financial institutions, combating the pervasion of prohibited schemes and other unauthorised financial undertakings, while also curbing violations related to exchange management. This Division has been converted into a full-fledged Department as at 1 January 2018. We have also undertaken measures to enhance our surveillance mechanism. Improvements to the early warning systems are also being effected. During the last year, the system has helped provide proactive and timely guidance. In addition, the existing internal mechanism has also undergone a review process. As announced in the Road Map 2017, the capital levels of licensed finance companies (LFCs) and specialised leasing companies (SLCs) are expected to be strengthened further. The minimum core capital requirement has been revised upwards from Rs. 400 million to Rs. 1 billion by 01 January 2018, followed by Rs 1.5 billion in 2019 and Rs. 2 billion by 2020.

I always knew that I picked up a lot of information from the unscheduled time between meetings, when informal and sometimes chance conversations take place. Having now lived without them for 6 months, I now realise these informal non-meetings were often my main source of information. The informal chat in the 5 minute walk from the lift to my office often contained more useful knowledge than the subsequent one-hour meeting in my office. The other week I spoke to the Bank’s new crop of graduates. When I was in their shoes, almost all of my knowledge came from informal conversations in the pub with my graduate cohort on their jobs, bosses and experiences, rather than from listening to talking heads like me. This year all of that is lost and, with it, a significant down-payment of social capital. Those losses are being replicated among organisations right around the world. This social capital, once lost, will be difficult to reacquire. Whether it is creative sparks being dampened, existing social capital being depleted or new social capital being lost, these are real costs and costs which would be expected to grow, silently but steadily, over time. They weigh on the other side of the ledger when it comes to assessing the case for home-working. They cast doubt on whether it will lead to the promised land of improved productivity and greater happiness. If you asked me if I am happier working from home, I genuinely would not know. I do not miss the commute.