samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Central banks are playing an active role in digital innovation. To support innovation while safeguarding the vital anchoring role of central bank money, the Banque de France is exploring the question of issuing a central bank digital currency, or CBDC. We carried out nine trials 5/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  between September 2020 and December 2021 on the issuance of a “wholesale” or interbank CBDC, acting in partnership with a diverse line-up of participants, including commercial banks. These trials showed that a CBDC could significantly improve cross-border payments and interbank processes, such as securities settlement, more generally. On the question of a retail digital euro, the Banque de France is making a full contribution to efforts by the Eurosystem, which, following preliminary work, began an investigation phase on 14 July 2021 aimed at analysing the pros and cons of such a currency. A final decision on whether to launch a digital euro will be taken in the final quarter of 2023 [SLIDE 8]. To preserve the strong complementarity between central bank money and commercial bank money that lies at the heart of our monetary system, the intermediation role of banks must be maintained and banks must be fully involved in this project. A CBDC will be created with banks, not in opposition to or in spite of them. On the climate front, the ECB has adopted an ambitious actionplan [SLIDE 8] to which the Banque de France made a decisive contribution.

However, the European Union holds a trump card as it boasts the world’s largest pool of savings, with the annual surplus of domestic savings over investment regularly exceeding EUR 300 billion. For this reason, we see a critical need to foster equity financing, as it is ideally suited to innovative projects, which entail higher risk-taking. This is also why, on a broader note, we support implementation of the Capital Markets Union [SLIDE 5], which, through a series of technical reforms, will enable Europe’s plentiful savings reserves to be allocated efficiently to companies through market financing. Efforts to strengthen the Capital Markets Union must be conducted in concert with steps to deepen the Banking Union, which remains an absolute priority. These two initiatives are crucial to the continued financial integration of the EU and will ultimately pave the way for investment and innovation to be funded more effectively. That is the diagnosis that I wanted to share: the twin transition to a digital future and a sustainable economy has the potential to weaken not only banks, but also financial stability and the real economy. Yet this is merely a diagnosis, not a prognosis. This same risk could also be a source of beneficial changes. 2. The banking sector: a participant in the digital and green transition  3/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  And so I come to what could and should be done to turn these challenges into opportunities. I will talk about three courses of action.
Banks must also put in place a transparent whistleblowing policy that enables the escalation of concerns without the risk of reprisal. Good governance is ultimately driven by a workforce that is committed to the highest standards of knowledge, competence and conduct. Competition for talent in the financial industry has intensified greatly, in an environment where public opinion of banks globally is also at an all-time low following the last crisis. Recent trends among graduates of leading business schools worldwide indicate a shift towards other well-paying alternatives to careers in banking, notably to technology and consulting firms. According to the Financial Times, the popularity of banking as a career has dropped 41% since 2008. Globally, banks’ reputations have also been dented to varying degrees by poor quality of service, staggering control failures and misconduct. The professionalisation of the banking industry is therefore critical to strengthen the talent pipeline, while restoring and maintaining public trust in the banking industry. An important step in this direction is the transformation of Institut Bank-Bank Malaysia (IBBM) into the Asian Institute of Chartered Bankers (AICB) as the professional body for bankers and the Asian Banking School as the education service provider. The AICB plays a key role in spearheading the vision of professionalising bankers through the development of professional qualifications, a specialised certification track to support continuing professional development and a membership framework that subjects members to a strict code of conduct, professionalism and ethics.

The prestigious Chartered Banker qualification, for example, aims to provide comprehensive education on banking to support sound judgment and decision-making. The industry should therefore take full advantage of these opportunities to build a solid team of professional bankers that are able to perform effectively in a rapidly evolving landscape. Fundamental role of banks to support inclusive financial participation for all It is important to bear in mind that growth in financial services must also serve to enhance economic opportunity for all. Since the establishment of the Financial Inclusion Framework in 2011, major inroads have been made in widening the accessibility to financial services in Malaysia. Agent banking has been a key strategy to improve access, particularly in the rural areas. 92% of our population has some form of access to financing. Moving forward, expanding public access to financial services will remain important for the remaining 8% of the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  unbanked population in Malaysia. There will also be greater emphasis on the quality of services provided. The social impact of greater financial inclusion is significant as it helps improve people’s lives. In this respect, banks have a critical role to play to make it easier for people to save, make payments and obtain affordable loans to improve standards of living and build more resilient communities. It would be a remiss to talk about the future of banking without embracing this very fundamental role of banks.
Recent history has shown that the Thai economy has the resilience to withstand adverse events and has  4/9  been quick to recover. Over the past ten years the economy has had to endure a number of shocks—externally, from the global financial crisis of 2009 to the beginning of quantitative tightening; and internally, from the domestic political turmoil throughout the decade, big flood of 2011, to the passing of His late Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej in 2016. And yet, over the past decade the Thai economy grew on annual average of 3.3 percent; it registered positive current account surplus in eight of the last ten years; and the Thai Baht has been one of the most stable currencies in the region. The economy has been able to overcome these challenges, because it possesses a unique set of qualities, qualities that contribute to our resilience. These key qualities are macroeconomic stability, diversified growth engines, and ability to adapt to new challenges. Ladies and gentlemen, Having sound macroeconomic stability is important for an economy to ensure confidence and provide environment conducive to growth. It also acts as a critical buffer, especially for small open economy, against episodes of external shocks and capital flow volatility. The Thai economy possesses macroeconomic stability in at least four key areas: (1) Our external stability remains strong, with ample foreign reserves, covering 3.4 times short-term external debt.

This year also marks a significant transition for Thailand to return to democracy as the general election was just held over the weekend. Ladies and gentlemen, Undoubtedly, one of the most pressing questions many audiences here today are wondering will certainly be on the implications of the outcome of the election and how that will impact the Thai economy. Unfortunately, it is too early for us to make a call as we still await  1/9  ratification of the election result, formation of the new government, appointments of key members of the cabinet, and announcement of the economic policy. So instead, today I want to focus my talk on long-term perspective of the Thai economy and highlight key qualities of our economic resilience that have allowed the Thai economy to endure a number of domestic and external shocks—many of which in the past, I believe, were much more challenging compared to the impending political change post-election. But before speaking about long-term perspective, allow me to talk briefly on our short-term outlook as our Monetary Policy Committee has just recently revised our economic projections. Looking back the past few years, the recovery of the Thai economy had been largely driven by improvements on the external front from the recovery of global demand. Growth drivers were unbalanced; exports of goods and services acted as the main drivers of growth while domestic sectors were well-below historical average. Last year marked a turning point as growth became more balanced.
13  Swings of the pendulum are a frequently used metaphor in studies of financial crises. See, for example, Michael D. Bordo (2003), “Market Discipline and Financial Crisis Policy: a Historical Perspective”, in Market Discipline in Banking: Theory and Evidence. Research in Financial Services: Private and Public Policy, Volume 15, 157–182, Edited by George G. Kaufman, Elsevier Publishers. According to Bordo, the pendulum swings between measures to prevent crises, manage crises and resolve crises. Erik F. Gerding (2006), “The Next Epidemic: Bubbles and the Growth and Decay of Securities Regulation”, Connecticut Law Review, shows how economic upswings are often periods of deregulation and overoptimism in securities markets, while the downturns that follow are marked by austerity and calls for stricter regulation. Moreover, regulations become less effective as time passes, and market participants forget the previous crisis. Gerding provides examples of such cyclical pendulum movements going as far back as the 1600s. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  extremes. Keynesian policy is often appropriate in a contractionary period, but it also involves saving in times of growth – a component that had been widely forgotten.14 The economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have summarised the experience of financial crises all over the world over the past 800 years. They show that history repeats itself. The “truth” most often proclaimed in boom periods just before the bubble bursts is the belief that “this time is different”, which is also the ironic title of the book.

It is not only an attractive book, but is also a very valuable working tool. A special feature of this history of the Swiss currency is that it was not written by a historian, but from the perspective of a monetary theorist. Nevertheless, the author is not only an outstanding monetary theorist and academic teacher, he also has rich practical experience  1  Hans von Keler, *1925, German theologist. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  as an economic policy advisor. The SNB’s Governing Board would like to thank Ernst Baltensperger for having made such a significant contribution to the understanding of the Swiss franc. We would also like to thank the publishing house, NZZ Libro, and all the individuals participating in this project for their careful handling and publishing of this book. It is now my pleasure to give the floor to Hans-Peter Thür. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
In addition to the medium and long-term benefits of such a strategy, defining the plan early on would generate greater certainty and trust in public policies, which is particularly important against the backdrop of the monetary policy normalisation I have described. In any event, the course of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions and retaliatory measures have laid bare the EU’s vulnerabilities and dependencies in key sectors, such as energy, as well as the disparities between Member States in their exposure to such tensions. A challenge of this magnitude underlines the importance of a joint response to common risks. The response to the war in Ukraine must, once again, be more Europe. To address this common challenge, more emphasis has been placed on European “strategic autonomy”. This episode has shown that pan-European structural policies that foster the integration and interconnection of European markets – including energy markets – and strengthen the single market4 will not only generate greater resilience to shocks, but also drive competitiveness. In this respect, joint funding arrangements should be established to safeguard this common effort and avoid any excessive or highly unequal impact on national public finances. Common funding arrangements would allow European institutions to finance large-scale programmes based on shared quality standards and would provide for a uniform approach for assessing programme execution. Headway must also be made in the expansion of the public and private risk-sharing arrangements in the EU.

So, this must be good news – apart from the inconvenient questions one asks from time to time about “How long will it last?” or “Is it sustainable?” For Emerging Market Economies, we have all witnessed the inflow of capital at the initial stages of the QEs, which drove up asset prices and inflationary pressure. This is not surprising as investors have no choice but to take aggressive steps to search for yields globally. This results in a misallocation of resources, as the abnormally low interest rates distort investment decisions by allocating capital away from productive real investment into risky assets that yield higher returns. The lack of real investment in turn reduces medium-term potential growth. Indeed, business investment growth in the US has been lacklustre since the economy recovered from the global financial crisis. The misallocation of resources aside, the search for yield behaviour also leads to a mispricing of risks across a wide spectrum of asset classes. In the US, junk bond issuance has risen sharply in the past few years, accounting for about 24% of all bond issuances so far in 2013, while the average high-yield spread has fallen below 5%. While the buoyancy in the asset markets helps support the economy in the short term, imbalances could build up in the economy and the financial system that may pose a threat to systemic stability when the unconventional monetary policies begin to unwind. 13.
Svein Gjedrem: The economic outlook Address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), to invited foreign embassy representatives, Norges Bank, Oslo, 2 April 2009. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 25 March, Monetary Policy Report 1/09 and on previous speeches. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. *  *  *  Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen, Since our last meeting about a year ago, the international economic environment has changed dramatically. In my presentation today, I will focus on how the international downturn has influenced the Norwegian economy and the outlook for our economy. The crisis has its core in the financial system, and I will therefore discuss the need for a new international financial architecture. Finally, I will comment on the Government Pension Fund – Global and how the financial crisis has influenced its investments and returns. Sudden global downturn in the real economy In September 2008, the turbulence in financial markets erupted into a full-blown global crisis. On 15 September Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The next day, money markets seized up. Confidence between banks had been compromised. Liquidity dried up, interest rates rose sharply and equity prices fell. Exchange rate volatility – the daily fluctuations in the exchange rate – showed a marked rise. Bond markets in turn shut down.

Within the Eurosystem, the ECB has established a high-level task force to prepare a comprehensive analysis of the possible benefits and challenges related to retail CBDC, to be discussed in coming weeks within our Governing Council. • In this journey, we must set up appropriate synergies between public and private actors. Unequivocal support should be given to the European Payment Initiative (EPI): this project is essential for the safety, the rapidity and the European sovereignty of payments. Success of EPI is determined by (i) access to a large customer base, (ii) adherence of large merchants, and ultimately interoperability should EPI have ambitions to develop outside of Europe. • Let me stress there is no contradiction, as sometimes feared by commercial banks, between considering a euro-CBDC and supporting EPI. We may probably need both, and build complementarity. My preference would be to seek a renewed public / private partnership for the dissemination of central bank money in a retail form. Possible impacts on the banking sector could be reduced with different tools: for instance, limiting the quantity of digital euro in circulation would prevent excessive shifts of commercial bank money into digital euros. For the Eurosystem, this strategy would imply to clarify the interplay we would like to put in place between EPI and the CBDC, thus validating an intermediated model while providing enough customer proximity and value added to intermediaries (like front-end solutions).
The initiatives can also fit in with the broader agenda of ASEAN integration, to leverage on regional resources and promote regional economic integration simultaneously. Closing remarks Let me close my remark by thanking all of you once again for your invaluable contributions to the Thai economy. The Bank of Thailand will continue our work of ensuring a stable financial and economic environment, so that businesses can continue to thrive and individuals can enjoy better standards of living on a sustainable basis. I hope that Thailand will continue to be a destination of choice for your investment, and a country of shared opportunity and prosperity for us all. Thank you  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Nevertheless, statements related to the interest rate path can still be useful as they can provide  4  Arguments against the publication of an explicit interest rate forecast by the central bank are discussed in more detail in Goodhart, C. (2001): “Monetary Transmission Lags and the Formulation of the Policy Decision on Interest Rates”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2001 (http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/01/05/165182Goodhart.qxd.pdf) and Mishkin, F. S. (2004): “Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?”, NBER working paper no. 10829 (http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/fmishkin/PDFpapers/56959-w10829.pdf)  5  “In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period. ", see press release from the Federal Reserve, Board of Governors, 12 August 2003, www.federalreserve.gov. 4  BIS Review 6/2006  information about why a particular path has been chosen. In addition, such statements can provide some information about our response to conditions outside the Bank’s control. Second, when the central bank deviates from the original projection for future interest rates, an explanation has to be provided. The interest rate forecast is based on incomplete information about the current situation and the functioning of the economy. If the economy is exposed to disturbances, the central bank's assessment of these disturbances must be communicated. The same applies if the central bank should change its view of the functioning of the economy. Professional financial market participants and other economic agents will have little difficulty in understanding that the interest rate will occasionally have to deviate from the forecast.
With these guidelines, the different systems can be monitored consistently, while at the same time keeping the administrative effort of the operators at an acceptable level. Business Continuity Planning (BCP) Different experiences in the recent past – from the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States to minor local technical difficulties – suggest that measures to strengthen the operational resistance of the Swiss financial sector must be taken. During the past year and a half, the SNB has headed a sectoral working group in cooperation with the SFBC secretariat. The group consists of representatives from infrastructure providers, financial institutions and the authorities and has conducted an in-depth analysis of the business continuity plans of the major players in the financial markets. The Business Continuity Planning (BCP) project focuses on precautionary measures to prevent the likelihood of disruptions. In addition, measures are taken to help cope as efficiently as possible with disruptions, once they have occurred. In its analysis, the working group focused on the two business processes which were considered to be especially critical for system stability and which must be maintained without fail even in exceptional circumstances. Firstly, the supply of liquidity to the financial system with central bank money by means of repos and, secondly, large-value payment transactions between the commercial banks in Swiss Interbank Clearing (SIC). The analysis began with the following scenario: a severe disruption causing the failure of an important operational centre and incapacitating its staff.

In the context of the UK’s highly developed and increasingly integrated financial services industry, in which distinctions between banks, building societies, investment intermediaries, insurance companies and so on have been becoming increasingly blurred, the argument for moving away from a fragmented supervisory and regulatory structure, in which banks were separately regulated, was compelling - and Howard and his team have done a tremendous job in bringing all the different strands of financial services regulation together under the FSA umbrella seamlessly and in a relatively short space of time. A potential downside from the Bank of England’s perspective was the possible loss of information from, or contact with, the banking sector which might reduce our capacity to exercise our responsibility for the stability of the financial system as a whole. Now of course it is early days to begin to assess the new arrangements from this perspective. It is true that we have not had any serious threats to financial stability in this country over the past three years, but I suppose that putting that down to the new structure would be a bit like the man who claimed that the absence of pink elephants in Hyde Park was the direct result of his clicking his fingers there on his regular morning walks. We really haven’t been tested.