samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
For example, a country’s long-term growth is determined by developments in the quantity of labour and real capital and technological progress. The best that monetary policy can do is, as I have already observed, to indirectly contribute to favourable economic developments by ensuring that inflation is kept low and stable and that financial stability is good. Although it might be tempting, it is therefore meaningless – and often counter-productive or even damaging – to give the central bank the task of "creating" growth or employment. If one tries to affect growth and employment by systematically keeping interest rates low and increasing liquidity in the economy, or by allowing public sector projects to be financed directly by the central bank, the profits will be only short term. Inflation will rise in a way that will sooner or later become difficult to control – the nominal anchor will loosen – while developments in the real economy risk being poorer than they would have been otherwise. I believe that it is correct to claim that a lack of insight and excessive  5  See, for instance, Bernanke, B.S., (2006), ”The Benefits of Price Stability”, Remarks at The Center for Economic Policy Studies and on the occasion of the 75th Anniversary of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, February 24. 6  See, for instance, Bernanke, B.S., (2004), “The Great Moderation”, Remarks at the Meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, DC, February 20.

And since we will only purchase bonds with a remaining maturity of between one and three years, there will still be ample room for market discipline on governments at longer maturities. Second, our actions will not lead to inflation. The weak overall economic situation, combined with slow money growth, means that the risks of inflation are currently very low over the medium term. Our interventions will not change this outlook. In fact, for every euro we inject with our interventions, we will withdraw a euro. So they will not affect monetary conditions. Furthermore, we see no signs that our announcement has affected inflation expectations. They are firmly anchored because we have always delivered price stability. And citizens can trust that we will continue to do so: price stability remains our mandate and our sole objective. Third, our actions will not lead to greater risks for taxpayers in Germany. Taxpayers are protected by the fact that our interventions will take place only in countries with sound economic and fiscal policies. Their continued commitment to these policies will be ensured by the ESM programme. And the ECB will assess compliance with this programme in full independence. Moreover, by normalising conditions in financial markets, our actions will help reverse the capital flows into Germany that are creating some distortions here. This should ultimately support the savers, pension funds and insurance companies that depend on interest income. And it should reduce TARGET2 imbalances.
As a financial centre, Singapore provides a suitable platform for public-private-partnership financing frameworks to help channel private capital into infrastructure development in Asia. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Build expertise for investing capital 24. While pricing capital correctly and improving the channels to distribute it more efficiently are necessary, they will be insufficient if the human expertise to manage and allocate the capital is not well developed. Building a successful team of financial intermediaries hinges on identifying the right talent and building the right competencies. 25. In Singapore, MAS and the industry have worked together to develop the Financial Industry Competency Standards (or “FICS”), aimed at enhancing the professionalism of the financial sector workforce. The accredited programmes of FICS are readily accessible, with funding support of up to 90 per cent of the programme fees. MAS supports relevant training programmes under the Financial Training Scheme, which co-funds training costs for training courses. 26. Substantial investment has also been made in the area of financial research. The work of researchers here helps to increase the body of knowledge and understanding of risks unique to Asian markets. Many research institutes have been set up in Singapore to support these efforts. 26. Singapore has put much effort into attracting asset managers to bolster the buy-side of the investment equation. As at end-2010, assets managed out of Singapore stood at $ trillion, with a rolling 5-year average growth rate of 16 per cent per annum.

But falls in oil and commodity prices can have a more lasting impact on inflation – and hence become relevant for monetary policy – if they feed into core inflation. That can happen under two circumstances. The first is if price falls are symptomatic of weakening global demand, rather than a boost to global supply. Then, lower oil prices might be accompanied by declining net exports, which could in turn cause firms to cut back on investment and drag down core inflation. This blunts the growth-bolstering effect of lower commodity prices. Imported inflation might also be depressed as foreign producers cut prices in reaction to weakening global growth. The second circumstance is if there is a succession of supply shocks that keep inflation low for a long period and cause firms and households to revise down their inflation expectations. In that situation, low oil and commodity prices can have “second round effects” as lower expectations feed into wage bargaining and price setting, thereby affecting core inflation. Then, the effect of supply shocks becomes more similar to demand shocks. In both cases, central banks end up facing a situation not of a benign supply shock, but rather of an adverse demand shock that, if left unaddressed, could derail price stability over the medium-term. That would call for a more forceful monetary policy response. Importantly, there were signs in the past that such circumstances were present in the euro area.
So yes to the innovation brought by digital assets and DeFi - which is, let me repeat, very welcome in Paris - but not at the cost of less regulation, which would - as we have seen elsewhere - work against the interests of the players themselves. II. Digitalisation of currency and payments: illustration of innovation partnership approach This brings me to the more forward-looking recipe, which provides a second insight into the dynamic interdependence between regulation and innovation, and between the public and private sector. Private innovation is both crucial and irreplaceable but central banks also have creative DNA, and many innovations  Page 4 of 6 are deployed within a partnership framework. Money is a perfect illustration. For centuries, the coexistence of central bank and commercial bank money has structured the retail payment landscape. We can all physically pay with central bank money, using cash, or with commercial bank money, using non-cash payment instruments such as cards. However, the rapid digitalisation of payments is leading to a rethink: as we become fully digital societies, should central bank currency be the only thing to remain in paper format? I imagine that two centuries ago, certain people had major doubts about issuing banknotes - a major innovation at the time - alongside gold and silver coins. Essentially, the e-euro should be a digital banknote – in other words "Cash +". First, it should have the same properties as cash. In particular, it will guarantee respect for privacy,iii with offline functionality guaranteeing the utmost confidentiality.

Ardian Fullani: Cooling down the liquidity situation in Albania Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the 6th Vienna Economic Forum, Regional Cooperation – Challenges and Chances: "20 Years after the fall of the Iron Curtain", Vienna, 9-10 November 2009. *  *  *  The argument the organisers have found is very relevant, particularly when it comes to central banks of the Western Balkan. Actually, as far as I am informed from my colleagues, constrained liquidity (especially in foreign currency) and lending tightening are two fragile points, which may put us in a difficult position in the months to come. This set of two arguments carries over a dual problem: the short-term one, which puts banking system stability at risk, while providing its own implications even on the economic activity and on macro stability in a broader sense. The second problem is related to the financial support of the country’s economic activity in the future, given the recent years, when lending to the economy has constituted one of the main contributors in this regard. So far I deem that we have been effective in short-term management of these problems. Similarly to the European Central Bank and other central banks of the developed countries, we (the central banks of our region) have succeeded in supplying the market with ample liquidity, combining a variety of operational tactics and instruments.
For sums higher than this it was cheaper to use cards. If we now compare this with the choices that the consumers actually made, the conclusion is that in 2002 it would have been better from the point of view of the Swedish economy if the consumers had made more payments by card and fewer payments in cash. From society’s point of view, it was profitable to pay by card when the sums were higher than SEK 70, but, as was the investigation from 2006 made evident, the “average consumer” nevertheless chose to wait until the sums were higher than SEK 123. Eight years have now passed since the study was conducted and it is much more likely that the costs of using cash have increased rather than decreased. For example, the costs for increasing the security of transportation and ATMs have been substantial. On the other hand, available evidence suggests that a card payment costs somewhat less today. One reason for this is that the shops’ costs for getting a card payment redeemed seem to have fallen due to increased competition between the card acquirers. The level at which it becomes more advantageous to the economy to use cards rather than cash has therefore probably fallen below SEK 70. The survey we conducted last year shows that we use cards to an increasing extent and for smaller and smaller payments. It is not unlikely that today’s “average consumer” would choose to pay by card for an amount below SEK 123.

In Sweden’s case this means that we have really caught up since the beginning of the millennium when we used cards only half as much as these Nordic neighbours. 1 Cards are still used to a greater extent in Norway than in the other Nordic countries. All-in-all, this development means that the use of cards has now reached such a level throughout the Nordic region that a serious disruption that affects the entire card system, or large parts of the system, would have serious consequences for the ability of people to make  1  Speech by Lars Nyberg (2008): “Paying is expensive – are we using too much cash?”. BIS Review 7/2010  1  payments. Cash could no longer replace cards if the card systems were to break down. If card payments do not work, then the entire payment system will not work satisfactorily either. The Riksbank’s responsibility for a safe and efficient payment system therefore means that we also have an interest in ensuring that card payments work safely and efficiently. To get more up-to-date information and to learn more about how the Swedes pay, the Riksbank conducted a survey towards the end of last year. The aim of the survey was to determine how people choose between different means of payment and the factors that affect these choices. As similar surveys were conducted in 2006, we also wanted to see whether the payment patterns had changed over the three years between the surveys.
Monetary policy and asset bubbles In my opinion, this crisis should lead to a critical reevaluation of the view that central banks cannot identify or prevent asset bubbles, they can only clean up after asset bubbles burst. As I wrote in 2006, this orthodoxy can be summarized by three propositions: 1. Asset bubbles are hard to identify. 2. Monetary policy is not well-suited to respond to bubbles. 3. Thus, the cost/benefit tradeoff of “leaning against the wind” against asset bubbles is unfavorable. From these propositions, the two important policy implications directly follow: 1. The central bank should only take asset bubbles into consideration in the conduct of monetary policy to the extent that these asset bubbles affect the growth/inflation outlook. 2. The monetary authorities should be there to “clean-up” after bubbles burst, both to prevent systemic problems and undesired downward pressure on economic activity and/or inflation. Relative to this, I would argue that:  BIS Review 83/2009  3  1. Asset bubbles may not be that hard to identify – especially large ones. For example, the housing bubble in the United States had been identified by many by 2005, and the compressed nature of risk spreads and the increased leverage in the financial system was very well known going into 2007. 2. If one means by monetary policy the instrument of short-term interest rates, then I agree that monetary policy is not well-suited to deal with asset bubbles.

The ECB thus decided to develop a benchmark rate: a new daily euro short-term rate, also known as ESTER. This rate will complement existing rates by the private sector and serve as a backstop to them. The ECB will start publishing ESTER by October 2019. This project will entail significant challenges. Every working day, we will need to produce a reliable rate, based on individual transactions. This will need to happen within a very narrow time frame, while ensuring full quality control. Leadership Ladies and gentlemen, I have talked a lot about past achievements and future challenges. And I have talked about the need to work together as a team. But, of course, all good teams need good leaders. And speaking of good leaders brings me to Aurel Schubert. As Aurel is due to retire soon, I would like to take the opportunity tonight to say a few words about what he has done for this institution. For eight years now, he has steered the ECB statistics ship with great competence. Aurel has made invaluable contributions to some of our most ambitious projects: the granular Securities Holdings Statistics, the MMSR and Anacredit. Thanks to his leadership, supervisory statistics were available from the start of European banking supervision. He helped amend our statistical legal framework to align it with international standards. But, of course, his career started long before he became Director General of Statistics. He has worked in the field since 1997.
Muhammad bin Ibrahim: The money services business industry in Malaysia Keynote address by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Malaysian Association of Money Services Business (MSB) Annual Dinner 2015, Kuala Lumpur, 25 April 2015. *  *  *  Terima kasih kerana menjemput saya pada malam ini untuk bersama meraikan majlis makan malam Persatuan Perniagaan Perkhidmatan Wang Malaysia yang diadakan buat julung kalinya. Saya amat berbesar hati dengan kehadiran tuan-tuan dan puan-puan sekalian yang mewakili hampir keseluruhan penggiat industri pada malam yang bermakna ini. Ia jelas menunjukkan sokongan padu dan komitmen daripada saudara dan saudari untuk terus merealisasikan aspirasi untuk membina sebuah industri yang moden, progresif dan berdaya saing. I feel only a short time ago that I had officiated the official launch of the Association. Since then the industry has made significant progress on many fronts. Standards have been raised, business conduct modernised and the structure of the industry has changed significantly. In many ways the achievements by the industry had exceeded our expectations. I would like to believe that the regulatory reform instituted over the last few years was the catalyst that had transformed the money services business industry. We have seen very encouraging results. But these transformations would not be possible without the vision and shared commitments provided by the Association and the industry players.

Companies should think carefully where they wish to position themselves in the long term and have a clear plan on how to get there. There might be companies that may aspire to grow and be major providers in their own lines of business. There might also be companies that want to position themselves as a complete solution providers or becoming principals with large agent networks. And then, there are companies that have been very successful as agents, building strong partnerships with their principals while keeping operating costs low. In fact, our engagements with the industry reveal that many agents are doing better than before in terms of business flows and profits. The regulatory framework in Malaysia is specifically tailored to accommodate all these options, supported by operating guidelines that is efficient and proportionate to risk. A company that takes on more risk and business responsibility must be prepared to meet the higher requirements that reflect the scope and levels of complexity of the business, including  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  the kind of management team that needs to be in place, the board’s profile and level of engagement and their ability to provide strategic leadership to the company. Companies also need to consider changes to processes as well, as investments in critical systems is important to support operations over the long term. Most importantly, there must be a clear strategy of execution and an honest assessment of the company’s ability to implement such a plan.
Following the best practices among inflation targeters, the number of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings has been reduced to eight meetings per year in order to provide technical staff sufficient time for deeper macroeconomic analysis. Several other recent policy changes will also support the implementation of flexible inflation targeting in the medium-term. The Central Bank has implemented a more market based exchange rate policy during recent times, with limited intervention in the foreign exchange market. There has been a build-up of international reserves with minimal impact on the exchange rate. In tandem, the financial system has 20  continued to expand whilst exhibiting resilience amidst challenging market conditions both globally and domestically. The implementation of the Basel III framework will further enhance the resilience of the financial system. A deeper and more liquid government securities market is also a prerequisite for a smoother transmission of the Central Bank policy rate signals to market interest rates, as yields on government securities form benchmark medium to long-term interest rates. In this regard, the recently introduced system of rule based and more transparent Treasury bond auctions, has not only reduced sharp volatility in yields on government securities, but also corrected the distortion between Central Bank policy rates and market interest rates that existed earlier. This mechanism has also helped reduce monetisation of the fiscal deficit through purchasing Treasury bills by the Central Bank at primary auctions.

Christian Noyer: Monetary policy and banks, and the rise of global protectionism Introduction by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the GIC (Global Interdependence Center) central banking series “Monetary policy and banks, and the rise of global protectionism”, Paris, 10 March 2014. *  *  *  These are challenging times for economic policy making. As was apparent at the G20 meeting in Sydney, the performance of the world economy is contrasted and uncertain. A central question is whether monetary policy has a role to play to improve the situation. To me, the answer is unambiguously “yes”. Monetary policy should remain active because persistently low inflation threatens the achievement of price stability as commonly defined by all major central banks today. Not all central banks are the same and there is some diversity in their objectives, mandates and, of course, the situations they are facing. Remarkably, however, all advanced economies have converged – in recent years – towards the same definition of price stability, first adopted by the Eurosystem in 2003: an inflation rate “close to 2%” (and in our case: below but close to 2%). I will focus my introductory remarks on two issues related to this challenging objective: the low inflation level and the forward guidance strategies. I’ll start with low inflation. Inflation has been falling recently in all advanced (although not emerging) economies.
They were “self-similar”. Selfsimilarity appears to be present throughout the physical world, from coastlines to cauliflowers, from snowflakes to lightning bolts, from mountain ranges to river deltas. 16 One of Mandelbrot’s earliest applications of fractal geometry was to stock prices. In a 1967 paper, he argued that stock prices could best be understood by distinguishing between two measuring rods: clock time and volume time. 17 While empirical studies typically used the first measuring rod (days, hours, seconds, milli-seconds), stock prices were better understood by using the second. Mandelbrot’s explanation was relatively simple. If trading cannot occur within a given time window, price movements can only reflect random pieces of news – economic, financial, political. So, consistent with efficient market theory, price changes would be drawn from a normal distribution with a fat middle and thin tails when measured in clock time. They were a random walk. But as soon as trading is possible within a period, this game changes. Strategic, interactive behaviour among participants enters the equation. Volumes come and go. Traders enter and exit. Algorithms die or adapt. Behaviour within that time interval may then no longer be random noise. Rather trading volumes will exhibit persistence and fat tails. This will then be  15  Blackledge (2008). 16  Peters (1994). 17  Mandelbrot and Taylor (1967). See also Clark (1973). BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  mirrored in prices.

By that metric, the contribution of equity markets to economic growth in the US, Europe and Asia has been static, at best mildly positive, during the course of this century. Yet that picture of apparent stasis in equity markets conceals a maelstrom of activity beneath the surface. To see this, Chart 2 plots stock market turnover in the US, Europe and Asia over the same period. It shows a dramatic rise, especially in the world’s most mature equity market, the United States. Equity market turnover in the US has risen nearly fourfold in the space of a decade. Put differently, at the end of the second World War, the average US share was held by the average investor for around four years. By the start of this century, that had fallen to around eight months. And by 2008, it had fallen to around two months. What explains this story? Regulation is part of it. Two important, and almost simultaneous, regulatory developments on either side of the Atlantic changed fundamentally the trading landscape: in the US, Regulation NMS (National Market System) in 2005; and in Europe, MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments Directive) in 2004. Though different in detail, these regulatory initiatives had similar objectives: to boost competition and choice in financial market trading by attracting new entrants. Central exchanges for the trading of securities evolved from the coffee houses of Amsterdam, London, New York and Paris in the 17th century.