samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The background to this policy is that debt in the Swedish household sector has shown a rising trend over the past 15–20 years and now appears high, both from an historical and an international perspective (see Figure 2). Unlike many other countries, housing prices in Sweden have not shown any significant fall. In terms of Figure 1, it can be said that in many other countries, heavy falls in housing prices have led to a downturn in the credit cycle, which has then pulled down the economic cycle. This has not been the case in Sweden, where the slowdown we have experienced in connection with the crisis has so far largely stemmed from the weak developments abroad. If we were also to experience a severe fall in housing prices and a rapid decline in the credit cycle, the consequences would be much greater and probably about as difficult to manage as they have proved to be in other countries.

Aznan bin Abdul Aziz: Banking and ESG revolution – going beyond aspirations Closing remarks by Mr Aznan bin Abdul Aziz, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the AICB-ABM 2nd Malaysian Banking Conference, Kuala Lumpur, 27 June 2023. *** Y Bhg Tan Sri Azman Hashim, Chairman of the Asian Institute of Chartered Bankers; Y Bhg Dato Khairussaleh Ramli, Chairman of the Association of Banks Malaysia, Vice Chairman of AICB and Group President and CEO of Maybank Group; Esteemed guests, ladies and gentlemen Assalamualaikum and Salam Sejahtera It's past 5 pm. And I have the unenviable job of keeping you from leaving after a highly productive and packed day. It is simply incomplete to adjourn without the regulator relaying its thoughts and expectations . I understand that the day started with a focus on where we, as a country, are in the climate journey. We know that 2050 is THE Year – the earliest point by which Malaysia aspires to reach Net Zero GHG emissions. Many significant policies are now either in place or are due to be finalised soon to get us to 2050. These include key frameworks and roadmaps for Malaysia to transition such as the Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT- LEDS), Nationally Determined Contributions Roadmap (NDC Roadmap) and National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR). These policies will enable yourselves and your clients to better align your transition plans.
In this step, the fixed interest rate for one-week repo auctions will be determined by adding 50 basis points to the declared overnight borrowing interest rate of the Central Bank. Therefore, the fixed interest rate for one-week repo transactions will become the reference (policy) interest rate of monetary policy. In the second step, the difference between the one-week repo auction interest rate and the overnight borrowing interest rate may be increased. The CBT may aim to create the secondary market average overnight interest rate around the one-week repo auction rate. The difference between the one-week repo auction interest rate and the overnight borrowing interest rate may be increased either by raising the one-week repo auction interest rate if the Monetary Policy Committee (Committee) decides that monetary tightening is required, or by lowering the overnight borrowing and lending interest rates if the Committee decides not to make any change in the policy interest rate. In this period, the differences between the oneweek repo auction interest rate and the overnight borrowing and lending interest rates may not always be symmetrical and will be determined by the Committee as an element of the operational framework of monetary policy. As a result, some of the measures taken in the foreign exchange and Turkish lira markets during the crisis are planned to be withdrawn gradually.

Meanwhile, the rapid rise or high levels of unemployment rates in many countries affect the total demand adversely by reducing household expenditures. The persisting uncertainties about exit strategies from the extraordinary monetary and fiscal measures are another factor pose risk to the permanence of recovery. The ever-growing budget deficits and swelling public debt stocks driven by the expansionary fiscal policies adopted especially in developed countries became an important risk factor as they push long-term interest rates up and affect private demand adversely. Meanwhile, sharp rises are observed recently in the risk premia of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy with high debt stocks as concerns over the sustainability of their current budget deficit are elevated. After summarizing the stages that the crisis has gone through since mid-2007, I would like to talk about the reasons for the emergence of the crisis from the viewpoint of the main theme of this conference; i.e. “the issue of governance”. There is a consensus over the fact that in the pre-crisis period, markets developed, deepened and grew more complex at an astounding pace but the institutions responsible for inspection and supervision failed to keep up with this change. Moreover, Basel II regulations made credit rating institutions a part of the regulation process; and complex derivative products and risk assessment methods spurred over-borrowing. In the pre-crisis period, the accommodating monetary policies adopted by central banks of developed countries in the form of the low interest rate-high liquidity led to moral hazards in financial markets.
News conference  15 December 2022, 10.00 am  Introductory remarks by Martin Schlegel I am pleased to give you an assessment of current developments with regard to cash. Since June, after many years of strong growth, we have seen a significant decline in banknote circulation. To contextualise this decline of approximately 10%, let me first say a few words about the above-average growth in recent years. In the period since the 2008 financial crisis, the value of banknotes in circulation grew, on average, more than twice as fast as in the two preceding decades – by around 6% instead of 2.5% per year (cf. chart 1). Between mid-2008 and June 2022, the value of banknotes in circulation more than doubled overall, from around CHF 41 billion to CHF 91 billion. This sharp increase was driven in particular by the desire of companies and private individuals to hold cash as a store of value. There was particularly strong demand for the large denominations, such as the 1000-franc and 200-franc notes (cf. chart 2). We see two reasons for the increased demand for cash as a store of value over the last 15 years or so. First, there were multiple periods of high uncertainty, notably the financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic. Cash tends to be popular as a secure store of value during such times. Second, the general decline in interest rates – and negative interest rates in particular – also contributed to the increased demand for cash.

In those areas where decisions have already been taken by the international community, implementation is now key. The G20 yesterday committed to full implementation of Basel III along the agreed timelines. The EU has already started this process early with the European Commission putting its proposals on the table for the so-called Capital Requirements Directive IV, which will translate Basel III into the legal framework of the EU Member States. In terms of macro-prudential framework, the European Systemic Risk Board has started its operation this year. All jurisdictions must ensure timely implementation so that we can ensure that we have done everything to make a difference as regards the resilience of the global, regional and national financial systems. Let me briefly highlight three key areas on which we need to stay committed and where swift progress is of the essence. The first challenge may come from the shadow banking sector. The introduction of more stringent capital requirements may provide incentives for banks to shift part of their activities outside the regulatory realm. It is therefore decisive that we continue our work to improve our capacity to identify and assess the potential risks stemming from the shadow banking system. This includes regulatory reform of money market funds, securitisation and the interaction with the banking sector. The second challenge is how to keep pace with financial innovation.
Lars E O Svensson: Monetary policy, debt and unemployment Speech by Prof Lars E O Svensson, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a meeting at SNS – Centre for Business and Policy Studies, Stockholm, 14 November 2012. *  *  *  I would like to thank Karolina Ekholm, Kerstin Hallsten, Per Jansson, Christina Nyman, Ulf Söderström and Anders Vredin for valuable discussions and comments. Mikael Apel, Gabriela Guibourg and Staffan Viotti have contributed to this speech. The views expressed are my own, and are not necessarily shared by the other members of the Executive Board or by other employees of the Riksbank. It can scarcely have escaped the attention of those who follow monetary policy in Sweden that the members of the Executive Board have held differing opinions for some time now. Most people have probably also noted that a minority of the Executive Board members – consisting of my colleague Karolina Ekholm and myself, in case anyone was not aware of this – has advocated a more expansionary monetary policy than the one that has been conducted and that the Riksbank intends to conduct in accordance with the repo-rate path advocated by the majority during the coming period. However, I am not as convinced that everyone has a clear idea of exactly what the differences of opinion entail.

By contrast, in some other member states in the euro area there have been explicit calculations about how much additional capital would need to be infused into banking systems in order to meet those requirements. This is testament to the very strong capital position of our banking system. Regarding steps to limit exposure by any of our banks to any sovereign holdings in the euro area, as part of the supervisory process of the Central Bank of Cyprus we demand that all of our banks have good risk management systems in place. Of course, we do not control the specific decisions on portfolio holdings of banks. Whenever we determine that there is undue concentration of risks then we demand that additional capital be held in order to account for these risks. This way we manage risks to the system. Q. Do you agree with an assessment recently made by Cypriot officials and the finance minister to be precise, that his hands are actually tied in terms of future ratings of the Republic if rating agencies continue to make a linkage between the economic fortunes of Greece and the economic fortunes of Cyprus, and do you think that this linkage is appropriate? In my view, all authorities must live up to their responsibilities. What we are experiencing in Cyprus over the past many months is a very unfortunate cycle of downgrades of the sovereign.
This will require banks and supervisors to undergo extensive trainings to learn these new concepts and techniques;  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches    Fifthly, given the scarce availability of qualified human resources, banks and supervisors will face the challenge of attracting and retaining staff with appropriate skill sets;    Sixthly, meeting the additional regulatory requirements relating to Basel III implementation will require banks to reassess their existing regulatory reporting and compliance structure to ensure its adequacy. This is important given the extended transitional timeline for implementation, during which some banks are required to participate in quantitative impact studies while others will have to prepare for full implementation within specified timeline. We also have to keep in mind that new rules are still evolving in certain areas based on the results of quantitative impact studies and thus may require further adjustments in the current regulatory requirements;    Lastly, and the most important step to be taken by banks, is adopting the robust governance structure that best suits their business model and risk profile. The Board of Directors should have a clear understanding of their role in corporate governance and be able to exercise sound and objective judgment about the affairs of the bank. The senior management should ensure that the bank’s activities are consistent with the business strategy, risk tolerance/appetite and policies approved by the board. This is the cornerstone on which any effective risk management framework, sound incentive structure and robust governance arrangements must be built.

Let me now highlight some challenges to be globally faced by banks and supervisors in implementation of Basel III:   Firstly, Base III has substantially raised the quality, quantity and international consistency of capital and liquidity. The new rules are aimed at strengthening of capital and risk management in banks. This may require banks to inject high quality fresh capital, preserve existing capital by limiting the payout of dividends and bonuses, realize efficiency gains, and mobilize liquidity from new sources in certain jurisdictions to meet additional capital and liquidity requirements. This would be a major challenge for some internationally active banks, particularly under present market conditions;    Secondly, internationally active banks facing major capital shortfalls will have to revisit their business strategies on global presence and expansion plans. They might be required to take some tough decisions on exiting from certain locations or considering merger and consolidation of their affiliates and subsidiaries;    Thirdly, implementation of Basel III will require banks to assess their existing capacity on estimation of additional capital and liquidity requirements. This may also require some banks to make additional investment in systems and procedures to build-up their capacity;    Fourthly, new capital and liquidity rules are conceptually and technically very demanding.
Before I continue, I’ll give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee or anyone else in the Federal Reserve System. Has the Phillips Curve Changed, or Is it a Trick of the Data? Throughout the paper, HMS use a reduced-form Phillips curve regression as a basis for their analysis. For my remarks, I simplify the specification and assume the inflation rate depends on the unemployment gap (and variants thereof), four lags of inflation, and a constant (relative to HMS, I have dropped the import price and inflation expectations terms). 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Overall, the results for the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index inflation using this simplified specification are quite similar to those reported in HMS. The full-sample (1961-2017) estimated coefficients using the core PCE price inflation rate are reported in the first column of the upper part of Table 1. The second column reports results corresponding to the “spline” specification of HMS, where positive values of the unemployment gap are added to the equation to capture asymmetry in the response of inflation to labor market tightness versus slack. The third and fourth columns of Table 1 report the corresponding estimation results for the subsample of 1961-1987, and the final two columns report the results for the subsample 19882017. Like HMS, the latter sample shows far less intrinsic persistence in inflation and a severe flattening of the Phillips curve relative to the full-sample results.

I hope this represents a durable structural shift, and isn’t merely a reflection of the fact that this year’s paper has three authors rather than the usual four. The paper covers a lot of ground, so I will only summarize a few key takeaways. First, HMS find evidence of asymmetric effects of unemployment on both price and wage inflation, with very low rates of unemployment leading to disproportionately large movements in inflation. That is, the Phillips curve is very much alive in very tight labor markets. Second, they find that the dynamics of price inflation have changed in important ways; specifically, it has become less sensitive to the business cycle and less persistent. Finally, they draw the policy conclusion that Fed policymakers should not be complacent about the possibility of a resurgence of inflation in the context of a tight labor market. In my remarks, I will discuss two issues. First, that price inflation dynamics have changed significantly in recent decades. I will argue that a number of structural factors have contributed to the appearance of a flattening of the Phillips curve and that a modified formulation that accounts for these changes displays little sign of the Phillips curve flattening. Second, I will turn to the issue of anchoring of inflation expectations and the need for the Fed to be vigilant in maintaining the anchor in the right place.
** Tobacco and Gold: Alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and gold. Source: TURKSTAT, CBT. The annual rate of increase in services prices declined further in the first half of the year amid weakening cost pressures and also because of the lagged effects of the contraction in domestic demand. It is worth noting that annual inflation in services decelerated across all subcategories (Figure 6). Services prices are expected to edge further down in the coming months. BIS Review 103/2009  3  Figure 6: Services Prices (Percentage Change, First Six Months) 11 10 9 8  2006-07 average 2008 2009  7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Services  Other Services  Transport services  Rent  Restaurant services  Source: TURKSTAT, CBT. As I believe that it is essential to decouple movements of the core inflation indicators and the likely effects of tax cuts to better understand the underlying trend of inflation and to evaluate developments more effectively, I would like to further clarify these developments. By the end of the second quarter of 2009, annual inflation measured by the CPI excluding energy, unprocessed food, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold (H index) declined to 2.31 percent while annual inflation measured by the I index, which excludes processed food prices, dropped to 2.98 percent. Although tax cuts contributed significantly to the decline of the core inflation indicators, figures corrected for tax adjustments also confirm that the underlying trend of inflation is downwards, as illustrated in the slide (Figure 7).

Therefore, should a concrete medium-term fiscal program, which safeguards the sustainability of debt dynamics and budget discipline, be established, it is possible that market interest rates will remain at low levels permanently. Distinguished members of the press, To sum up, growing perceptions that recovery in the global economy will be slow and gradual, saving rates will remain high and global interest rates will remain low for quite some time; enabling monetary policy to provide a more concrete perspective for the future. Within this framework, forecasts are based on an outlook, which envisages that short-term interest rates will be somewhat further eased and not raised until the end of 2010. The monetary policy for 2011 and thereafter will be determined according to the course of variables affecting the inflation outlook. With the end of the crisis, should the fiscal discipline be reestablished in a gradual and forceful manner, short-term interest rates are projected to remain in single-digits throughout the forecast horizon of three years. Distinguished guests, Even if our primary objective is to achieve price stability, I would like to reiterate that we will continue to take all the necessary measures and use all policy instruments available in a timely and due manner should the likelihood arise that problems in international markets adversely affect domestic financial markets. Therefore, strengthening the commitment to fiscal discipline and the structural reform agenda is also critical to facilitate expectations management and to support the effectiveness of monetary policy decisions.
The depreciated global demand, reflected through several channels, with a decrease in the national economy and real decrease in the GDP in the first half of the year of 1.2%. BIS Review 127/2009  3  Also the pressures on the inflation caused by the import prices decreased, which together with the entering into the zone of a negative production gap, resulted in price stabilization. The average annual inflation rate in the first eight months of 2009 is negative and it equals – 0.3%, which is a significant downward movement, compared to the preceding year. Alike the pressures on the foreign exchange market caused by the indirect effect of the global crisis, transmitted through the movements in the balance of payments, no movements typical for the global money markets characteristic for the past two years on the Money Market in the Republic of Macedonia were registered. Namely, on the Money Market, in the segment of the non-collateralized borrowing, increase in the turnover and stable movements of the interest rate in the last two years were registered, proving that the mutual confidence in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia was not impaired. Thus in 2007 exactly, when the global financial crisis began in August, the turnover registered on the Money Market in the Republic of Macedonia started to increase, with the average monthly turnover reaching the level of Denar 1,712 million and it was higher by twice relative to the average monthly turnover registered in the preceding year.

What we're going to have to do, clearly, is relearn the lessons our grandfathers were taught by the Great Depression. I won't try to lay out the details of a new regulatory regime, but the basic principle should be clear: anything that has to be rescued during a financial crisis, because it plays an essential role in the financial mechanism, should be regulated when there isn't a crisis so that it doesn't take excessive risks. Since the 1930s commercial banks have been required to have adequate capital, hold reserves of liquid assets, that can be quickly converted into cash, and limit the types of investments they make, all in return for federal guarantees when things go wrong. Now that we've seen a wide range of non-bank institutions create what amounts to a banking crisis, comparable regulation has to be extended to a much larger part of the system. We're also going to have to think hard about how to deal with financial globalization." At this moment, the activities and the approach of the international financial institutions, governments and central banks are similar to such understanding of the response to the crisis. Financial regulations are being changed intensively. They are directed toward broadening of the perimeter of the regulations (toward everything that could produce significant risks for the financial system), but also toward declining of its procyclical character. In that respect, activities have already been undertaken towards actual solutions for: -  Increasing the quality, consistence and transparency of the core capital.