samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Instead, risk management is the art of distinguishing the risks you accept from the risks you deem unacceptable, and deciding how best to avoid, reduce, or eliminate those risks. Prudent risk management also includes plans for recovering from risks that materialize. Your characterization and assessment of risk—acceptable or unacceptable, large or small—and your strategy for dealing with risk will depend on your broader purpose and goals. This is what is called a “risk appetite.” How much risk is, for you, too much risk? Or, perhaps more important, what type of risks should you avoid? In this talk, I will share my own experience in helping to manage risks at the New York Fed. I will also offer some thoughts on the role lawyers should play in any financial institution’s risk management. I will focus on lawyers for two reasons—it’s what I know, and it’s what many of you are studying at the University of International Business and Economics. First, though, a caveat: I understand that the issues surrounding risk management in the financial system are of great interest in China today as well as in the United States. But I am not an expert on Chinese law, culture, or history. My experiences may not fully resemble your own, and the lessons I share today may have only partial relevance to your lives and careers. At the very least, I hope there may be value in learning about someone else’s experience and perspective.

We read and study and admire the great dissenters: John Marshall Harlan, Harry Blackmun, and Antonin Scalia, among others—even though we may not always agree with their views. This training is important because speaking up is not always easy. Every lawyer will likely encounter a situation in which you simply need to be courageous in stating a divergent or unpopular viewpoint. In these circumstances, remember that you are part of a profession, not just part of a firm or a company. Professional courage is expected of you by your fellow lawyers, 5/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  and you should count on their support. The New York City Bar has called professional courage “the indispensable element” of lawyering. “The essential need is for lawyers . . . not to waver when the advice is unwelcome, no matter how important the client or how powerful the officer or director resisting the advice.”5 Second, be on the lookout for what is not being considered. Ask yourself, “What are we missing?” This is a critical question in good risk management. In-house lawyers are often wellpositioned to spot problems that others might miss. These issues become apparent only with a certain perspective—one that looks across an organization with both independent judgment and inside knowledge. Lawyers can offer both. Third and finally, try to promote diversity and inclusiveness in the organizations where you work. I have seen too many examples of supervised banks that managed their risks poorly because they approached decisions with limited experience, insight, and perspective.
Switzerland is to be represented as an entirety, as a country open to the rest of the world and also as a meeting place for the world. The focus should not be on any individuals, inventions or achievements. Much rather, a basic attitude and its manifestations should be conveyed: Switzerland as a platform for dialogue, progress, humanitarian commitment, exciting experiences, creativity and the search for practical approaches to solutions within organisations. It is envisaged that these topics will be dealt with through the lens of economics, education, research and development, human rights, tourism and recreation, culture and, lastly, sports. Six topics have to be depicted, namely the activities of negotiating and exchanging, teaching and researching, helping and mediating, enjoying and relaxing, creating and designing, and deciding and implementing. Each of these topics will be assigned to one denomination of the new banknote series. The artistic representation must emphasise the topics rather than specific events or institutions. The traditional portrayal of personalities and the depiction of institutions and previous achievements should be dispensed with. The illustration of a university, for example, should not serve as a self-portrayal but could symbolise “progress”. As previously, the banknote series should form a “family” both with regard to content and design. In other words, although each banknote type must have its own characteristics, they must at the same time share sufficient features to be easily recognised as part of the new series.

James McAndrews: Credit growth and economic activity after the Great Recession Remarks by Mr James McAndrews, Executive Vice President and Director of Research of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Economic Press Briefing on Student Loans, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 16 February 2015. *  *  *  Accompanying tables and figures can be found at the end of the speech. Good morning and let me welcome you to our press briefing focusing on developments in the student loan market. My remarks will concentrate on the role of credit markets more generally during this economic expansion. As a reminder, these remarks reflect my own views, and not those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or of the Federal Reserve System. First, let me say a few words on the current economic outlook. Real GDP grew 2.4 percent over the course of 2014. As New York Fed President Dudley noted earlier this month, despite what appears to be a soft first quarter, we expect that real GDP growth will continue over the next couple of years at a similar rate, supported by solid underlying fundamentals and accommodative financial conditions. Unemployment should continue to decline and approach 5 percent by late this year. Because of the recent sharp fall in oil prices and the appreciation of the dollar, inflation will be very low over the coming months.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  19  Chart 13: Difference in maximum and minimum price of GE shares across different exchanges on 06 May 2010 Price difference $ 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 14:41  14:43  14:45 Time  14:47  14:49  Source: NANEX. Notes: Difference in bid prices across NASDAQ, NYSE and Pacific Exchange. Table 1: Round-trip latencies for selected exchanges, April 2010 Exchange  Average round-trip latency (microseconds)  Nasdaq OMX INET  250  Bats Europe  270  Chi-X Europe  400  NYSE Arca  900  LSE Tradelect  2000  TSE Assowhead  5000  Source: http://mondivisione.com via AFM 2010. 20  BIS central bankers’ speeches

In light of recent developments, I am optimistic about the economic prospects for the Bronx and local small businesses. I also believe that community banks and community development organizations have an important role to play in paving the way forward. As always, my comments today reflect my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System. 1 The economic outlook for the Bronx To appreciate where we are, we need to remember where we’ve been. Those of you who are long-time Bronxites know that starting in the 1950s, but especially during the 1970s, the Bronx endured a massive economic slump. In that one decade, the 1970s, the borough’s population fell by 20 percent – and by even more in many well-established neighborhoods. As people moved out in droves, buildings were abandoned, crime increased and jobs vanished – all in a vicious cycle, creating an atmosphere of despair. Yet, the borough persevered and conditions began to stabilize and then to even improve a bit in the 1980s. Today, while there is still much progress to be made, the Bronx is in dramatically better shape on many dimensions: its economy has been growing at a brisk pace, its population is on the rise, its housing stock is being rejuvenated and many businesses are thriving, creating strong job and income growth. This is particularly evident in neighborhoods like Hunts Point and the area around Yankee Stadium, down to the Bronx Terminal Market and beyond.
We have expected that the import pattern would gradually become more stable, but if the shift continues, the price-dampening effects of increased imports from low-cost countries in Asia and Central and Eastern Europe may persist longer than assumed. The change in China’s exchange rate regime in July, with a 2 per cent revaluation of the Chinese currency, may over time have an impact on price developments for imported consumer goods. The global economy Economic growth among trading partners appears to be somewhat lower this year than in 2004. In the years ahead, growth is expected to be relatively stable. The outlook for growth in different regions indicates that the imbalances in the global economy, with a large deficit in the US and large surpluses in a number of other countries, will persist. There are particularly large imbalances both in the US balance of trade and current account. Persistent trade deficits have pushed up US foreign debt to a high level. This is partly due to the federal budget deficit. Moreover, US households have a high level of consumption and a low level of saving. This may be related to a more rapid rise in the US population than in other OECD countries. This suggests in isolation that saving in the US is somewhat lower and investment somewhat higher, but the impact is now considerably greater than implied by demographic factors alone. The imbalances may persist, and may increase. International capital markets are deep and liquid with an ample supply of credit for US borrowers.

But as expected, there are also challenges that come with fintech expansion: cyber-attacks, phishing emails and other scams are reportedly on the rise, a trend that needs to be addressed before it becomes alarming. Banks must continue to stay ahead of fraudsters through constant building and rebuilding of defences, rigorous stress testing, and educating customers about cyber safety. The enhanced Cybersecurity Fortification Initiative, soon to be launched, should provide banks with a robust framework for managing the risks. 11. Growing reliance on data analytics raises questions about data ownership and privacy. As we have seen in some other jurisdictions, AI and machine learning also introduce the risk of discrimination, sometimes in hidden forms. Banks have to guard against this by ensuring ethical, fair and transparent treatment of customers, and by correcting model aberrations using human intuition. 12. We realise that banks are at different stages in their adoption of AI technologies. For this reason, our risk management approach as a regulator is based on high-level principles rather than on detailed prescriptions that might stifle innovation or be disproportionate to the risks involved. 13. Technology is not just about banks and their customers – it is also an important part of banks’ relationship with the HKMA. As we are a key part of the technology ecosystem, our aim is to add value by facilitating the industry’s technology adoption through a range of initiatives, such as the AML/CFT Regtech Forum and the Regtech Watch newsletter.
Muhammad Al-Jasser: “Assessment” project of small and medium size enterprises Opening speech by His Excellency Dr Muhammad Al-Jasser, Governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), at the inauguration ceremony of the “Assessment” project of small and medium size enterprises, Saudi Company for Credit Information (SIMAH), Riyadh, 8 October 2011. *  *  *  Your Excellencies and Dear audience, I am pleased to participate with you in celebrating the launching of the “Assessment” Project of Small and Medium Enterprises. First, I would like to express my thanks and appreciation to the colleagues at the Saudi Company for Credit Information (SIMAH) for the development of this important project, which I hope will be provided with all necessary means of support by all entities concerned for its success. Dear brothers and sisters, The national economy consists of a large and integral variety of public and private institutions that use available human and material resources to produce continuous flows of goods and services to meet the domestic community’s needs and a part of the external demand. Of course, domestic enterprises differ in size based on various criteria, the most important of which are: the number of workers, the amount of capital, sales and others. One of the misconceptions is that large enterprises are the main impetus of economic activity. This belief has arisen from the good news repeatedly published about those institutions in various mass media.

These advantages and disadvantages, however, represent an opportunity for the financial sector to further focus on financial support through financing these enterprises, commensurate with risk level that must be taken into consideration when financing SMEs, and to set appropriate finance prices commensurate with risk levels. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Ladies and Gentlemen, Business Enterprises have witnessed significant growth in recent years. The number of enterprises subscribing to the Social Insurance System went up from about 121.5 thousand in 1426H to approximately 218.4 thousand in 1430H, recording an annual average growth of 16 percent. Individual proprietorship firms represented 93.1 percent of the total of annual average growth, limited liability Enterprises 4.7 percent and holding Enterprises 0.6 percent. Economic activity of these enterprises was focused in three areas: commercial activity 34.3 percent, construction and building 32.3 percent and manufacturing industries 14.6 percent. Small Enterprises with less than 5 employees accounted for the largest share of 55.5 percent of the total number of enterprises at the end of 1430H, while the rest, enterprises with more than 60 employees represented 3.8 percent. These data show that most of the enterprises in the Kingdom are small, in terms of the number of workers. SMEs’ contribution to the Kingdom’s GDP is very low, accounting for 33 percent, while SMEs constituted 64.3 percent of Japan’s GDP, 43.3 percent of Spain’s GDP, 56 percent of France’s GDP, 44 percent of Austria’s GDP, 43 percent of Canada’s GDP and 33 percent of Australia’s GDP.
In case of a recovery in the liquidity conditions due to developments in the international markets; (i)  The Central Bank may, with prior notice, resume foreign exchange buying auctions in line with the general strategy of strengthening foreign exchange reserves at times when foreign exchange supply increases compared to the foreign exchange demand. (ii)  The Central Bank might cease to perform its intermediary function in the Foreign Exchange Deposit Market. However, even in such a case, banks will still be able to borrow foreign exchange deposits from the Foreign Exchange Deposit Markets within the predetermined borrowing limits. (iii)  The FX required reserves ratio might be increased. In view of the fact that financial stability is one of the prerequisites for price stability, the Central Bank took the necessary measures in order to ensure the efficient operation of Turkey’s foreign exchange market without facing any liquidity problems. The Central Bank also announced possible additional measures. Nevertheless, bearing in mind that under the current exchange rate regime economic agents operate in an environment of exchange rate risk, they should establish mechanisms that will ensure efficient risk management. Liquidity management While drawing up the general framework of liquidity management, the Central Bank took into consideration following objectives; (i) ensuring that short-term interest rates would remain at or revolve around the level set by the Committee, (ii) ensuring the efficient and stable operation of money markets by preventing excessive volatilities in short-term interest rates of the money market, (iii) ensuring smooth functioning of the payments system.

In Europe, the ECB’s deposit facility rate was already set at -0.5% before the COVID-19 crisis.6 In our statements, we have stressed that this rate could be further lowered in the future. Yet in any event, looking back it seems clear that conventional monetary policy — i.e. that based on controlling the short-term interest rate — has less scope for action than, for example, a few decades ago. The lower bound on interest rates generates asymmetry in monetary policy conduct. As I commented earlier, if inflation rises above its target, central banks may increase interest rates as much as necessary in order to “cool” the economy. However, in the face of deflationary shocks driving inflation below its target and leading the central bank to cut its interest rates, these may ultimately “collide” with their lower bound. This asymmetry makes monetary policy potentially very effective for combating inflation, but less so for combating deflation or even persistently low inflation. The latter may lead to a dangerous vicious circle. Against a backdrop where central banks’ hands are expected to be frequently tied by the lower bound on interest rates, economic agents will expect any inflation overshooting to be corrected swiftly. However, this is not the case for undershooting. Therefore, average expected inflation over a long period will tend to run below target.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  and consider “undeveloped” is now more fiscally responsible and is growing faster than the United States. What does that say about the fiscal rectitude of the U.S. Congress? Here is the point: As demonstrated by the relative and continued, inexorable outperformance by Texas – which is affected by the same monetary policy as are all of the other 49 states – the key to harnessing the monetary accommodation provided by the Fed lies in the hands of our fiscal and regulatory authorities, the Congress working with the executive branch. As demonstrated by the fiscal posture of Mexico, a nation can effect budgetary discipline and still have growth. One might draw two lessons here. The first comes from Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, who from my perspective was spot on when he said, “If you want more private demand, you have to take people’s angst away” by having responsible and disciplined fiscal and regulatory policy.7 Clearly, there is less angst involved in conducting business in Texas. The second is a broader, macroeconomic truism: that fiscal and regulatory policy either complements monetary policy or retards its utility as a propellant for job creation. Mexico is proof positive that good fiscal policy enhances the effectiveness of thoughtfully conducted monetary policy, which is what the Banco de México – whose independence, incidentally, was enshrined by a constitutional amendment in 1994 – has delivered under its single mandate of inflation control and by applying the tool of inflation targeting.

A copious amount is being harbored by nondepository financial institutions, and another $ trillion is sitting in the cash coffers of nonfinancial businesses. 1  Gasoline prices were not a major factor in January’s headline index, at least relative to the normally wild swings we see in the price of gasoline. On a seasonally adjusted basis, gasoline prices increased 0.9 percent in January (not annualized) and contributed roughly 0.3 annualized percentage points to the headline rate. Based on weekly data collected by the Department of Energy, the price of gasoline in February is on pace for an increase of 6.3 percent over January. Given that the typical seasonal pattern has gasoline’s price falling 1.1 percent in February, we should see a roughly 7.4 percent seasonally adjusted increase when personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for February come out at the end of March. Gasoline alone may end up contributing about 3 annualized percentage points to February’s headline PCE rate. A more thorough discussion can be found here: www.dallasfed.org/data/pce/2012/pce1201.cfm. 2  FOMC Greenbook forecast, December 1966. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Trillions of dollars are lying fallow, not being employed in the real economy. Yet financial market operators keep looking and hoping for more. Why? I think it may be because they have become hooked on the monetary morphine we provided when we performed massive reconstructive surgery, rescuing the economy from the Financial Panic of 2008–09, and then kept the medication in the financial bloodstream to ensure recovery.
The current account is not an indicator on which the SNB should base its monetary policy So what does this mean for monetary policy? As I mentioned at the outset, textbook economic theory would hold that Switzerland’s persistent current account surplus is a function of a rather weak Swiss franc. Such a view stands in direct contradiction to our assessment and, consequently, our current monetary policy. This is based, first, on the negative interest that banks and other financial market participants pay on their sight deposits at the SNB, and second, on our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary. The goal of these measures is to ease pressure on the Swiss franc and thus ensure price stability, as the exchange rate has a strong influence on monetary conditions in Switzerland and, hence, on price stability. Let me illustrate the correlation between exchange rate developments and price stability as shown in chart 8. The blue line in the chart shows the development of the Swiss franc exchange rate against all trading partners, adjusted for inflation differentials. Upward movement of the blue line means that the Swiss franc appreciated in real terms. As you can see from the chart, the Swiss franc has appreciated substantially since the onset of the financial crisis, at times reaching approximately 25% more than its long-term average. The Swiss franc has weakened slightly in recent months, but remains highly valued. The high value of the Swiss franc is critically important for the direction of monetary policy.

One of the most important and immediate consequences would be impact on trade finance which is a critical issue for emerging economies and Asia. This is because our economies and financial structure is more dependent on it, compared to some western economies. Let me elaborate. International trade is a major driver of GDP as our export is part of the global and increasingly integrated regional supply chain. However, many of our exporters are SMEs not large conglomerate. These local SMEs rely on bank financing, as our financial system remains more bank-based than market-based. Supplier of trade financing is still banks in western countries, especially European banks. The deleveraging of European banks can reduce the supply of trade financing and impact growth and development. To address this, it is important that Basel Committee recognizes that trade financing has relatively large impact on Asia, compared to the western economies for which Basel III is mainly geared. Treatment of trade financing in leverage ratio framework will create incentive for banks to shift away from trade financing towards other types of financial transactions, including derivatives which have lower impact on leverage ratio, but can earn higher return. This is because they are assigned lower credit conversion factor even though trade financing is less complex, more familiar, has low liquidity risk as they are self-liquidating, and most importantly, it clearly serves real sector. We believe these rationales argue for a more appropriate treatment of trade financing to ensure that the Basel III framework is appropriate for Asia.