samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Central banks consider it important to understand why the Phillips curve has become flatter as this has implications for monetary policy and its impact. If the flatter Phillips curve is due to exogenous changes in, for instance, productivity, this need not reflect a change in the behaviour of households and companies. The possibilities to steer inflation thus need not have deteriorated. Monetary policy affects demand and resource utilisation through many different channels. Unemployment is one channel, but labour force participation, employment, and job vacancies are some examples of other channels through which monetary policy can have an impact. However, if it were the case that the flatter Phillips curve is based on a change in the behaviour of households or companies, for instance, that companies set prices in a different way than before, this could mean that the impact of monetary policy also changes. 17 It is thus not sufficient to observe that the slope of the Phillips curve has changed to draw any conclusions for monetary policy, one must also have an idea of why the slope has changed. A lot of things work well in the labour market – but not everything Economic prospects in Sweden are currently bright. Growth is good, at the same time as employment and labour market participation are rising. The labour market appears to be functioning fairly well, with declining unemployment. Compared with the rest of Europe, things are looking good in several respects.

In this regard, we recently announced the Education and Industry Forum on Financial Services Culture to support these efforts. The Forum, which kicked off in April, brings together business schools and industry representatives. Participants will research and design case studies for business school students. This will mean that students planning to enter the industry will have the tools to handle the ethical challenges that can arise in real-life work situations. 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  “Convene” means bringing together stakeholders to share best practices. And that’s where our Supervisors Roundtable comes in. The Roundtable brings together supervisors from around the world to share their jurisdictions’ approach and what they’ve learned from it. Participants have developed a shared set of tools for supervisors that can be leveraged in cultural assessments. Finally, let me turn to this principle of “catalyze,” and how we can use our position in the heart of the Financial District, to create change. As well as talking the talk—we’re walking the walk. This year, for the first time, this Bank is taking the Banking Standards Board (BSB) Assessment. The BSB Assessment measures the extent to which nine characteristics are demonstrated by an organization, and it includes things like honesty, accountability, and respect. The assessment started in the UK, and the Irish Banking Culture Board now takes a similar approach. I would love to see firms in the United States adopt an industrywide survey that can measure culture and benchmark banks against their peers.
In 1949, the banks started bundling interbank transactions in various clearing houses categorised according to bank type. Thirty years later, in 1979, the data processing systems of these clearing houses were also centralised. This laid the groundwork for the current SIC system, launched in 1987, which has led to the centralisation and standardisation of all Swiss interbank payment transactions via SNB sight deposit accounts. Cf. Fritz Klein and Guido Palazzo, ‘Kulturgeschichte des Geldflusses. Die Entwicklung des Zahlungsverkehrs mit Fokus Schweiz’, 2003, Verlag SKV. The G20 countries committed to the principle of settling OTC derivatives via central counterparties at the Toronto Summit in 2010 before passing national legislation on the matter (art. 97 of the Financial Market Infrastructure Act [FMIA] in Switzerland, the European Market Infrastructure Regulation [EMIR] in the European Union, and the Dodd-Frank Act in the US). The terms ‘distributed ledger’ and ‘blockchain’ describe a concept that enables the operation of a distributed, synchronised database. Such a database allows participants to exchange digital assets without involving a centralised third party. Page 4/6  Such new technology is highly relevant for central banks, especially in the context of the ongoing debate about central bank money potentially being issued via a distributed ledger. This idea raises a host of central bank-specific questions that will need to be examined in more detail. The SNB is following and analysing developments in this arena closely and is actively involved in discussions with market participants, regulators and other central banks.

I would also like to thank representatives from Aflatoun and CentiQ in the Netherlands and all the policymakers who are participating as speakers and experts at this forum. On that note, I wish all of you a productive forum over the next two days. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Many countries, including Russia, have seen improvement in the index of attractiveness of carry trade (carry-to-risk). This index reflects the rate differential between sovereign obligations, with regard to risk measured against the volatility of the exchange rate. The recent growth of this index for Russia is associated not so much with change in the rate differential, but with the lower volatility of the ruble, which has already matched the level of a large number of emerging markets with successfully implemented inflation targeting policies, and that of some developed countries. In response to these changes, questions have arisen regarding the volume and potential sustainability of capital inflows to Russia. It should be noted that statistics do not confirm the hypothesis that carry traders have brought about a mass influx of funds on the Russian market. According to the latest balance of payments assessment published by the Bank of Russia, the main foreign exchange earnings in the first quarter of this year were related to the current account, and amounted to $ billion. Net private capital outflow in the first quarter of 2017 – amounting to $ billion – was actually a reflection of this influx, as the Russian banks, having received export revenue in their accounts, incorporated this revenue as foreign assets, primarily in the form of deposits in correspondent banks.

BIS Review 92/2001  3  Despite the generally positive impact of capital liberalisation on the growth prospects of the accession countries, one should bear in mind that the speed of capital account liberalisation may carry risks for countries with underdeveloped financial sectors, especially in a context of fixed or tightly managed exchange rate regimes. If not carefully sequenced and supported by consistent macroeconomic and structural policies, capital account liberalisation could pose some risks to macroeconomic or financial stability in the accession countries. It is therefore crucial that the right policies are put into place before EU accession. 5. Financial sector structure and functioning  The last issue I would like to elaborate on concerns the structure and functioning of the financial sector in the accession countries. Partly for historical reasons, the financial sector in the accession countries is largely dominated by the banking sector, whereas other financial sector intermediaries still need to be further developed. Over the past few years, significant progress has been made in restructuring and consolidating the banking sector. This progress has been accomplished through the large-scale privatisation of state-owned banks and through the extensive opening-up of the banking sector to foreign ownership. Undoubtedly, this process has contributed to greater integration with the EU and significant efficiency gains. It has also supported the strengthening of financial stability and provided the banking sector with know-how and capital. However, the degree of financial intermediation remains rather low and the challenges ahead are considerable.
One type of argument concerns the fact that many central banks cut their rates as far as possible in connection with the crisis and were forced to go on to more unorthodox and untried means of conducting monetary policy. When monetary policy was delegated to independent central banks, this was during a period when there was in principle only one instrument – the policy rate – at the central bank’s disposal. Unlike, for instance, taxes, the policy rate was regarded as something that could be delegated to “technocrats” who have not been popularly elected. But with the monetary policy conducted by a number of central banks after having cut their policy rates as far as possible, the situation has become much more complicated. Many of the measures implemented are considered to border on fiscal policy and then it is less evident that the central bank can act entirely independently of the political system. Some people say that the financial crisis led to a “creeping politicization” of monetary policy.3 Another type of argument focuses on the expanded role that many people assume central banks will gain in future, and in some areas have already gained, with regard to attempting to prevent future crises – in the new policy area known as macroprudential supervision. According to law, the Riksbank is to “promote an efficient payments system”, but this very general wording is not linked to any specific instrument that can be used for this purpose.

Major differences from when I last worked at the Riksbank I have worked at the Riksbank twice, during two entirely different regimes – or paradigms, if you wish. The first time was during a period of around fifteen years from the early 1970s to the mid-1980s. At that time, the credit and foreign exchange markets were regulated. The Riksbank determined both the price and size of the credit on offer and had access to tools such as liquidity ratios and lending caps. The Riksbank also had regular meetings with the commercial banks, to closely monitor that they were observing the regulations. The banks were told in no uncertain terms if they had failed on some point. The Riksbank was able to conduct a policy that stabilised economic activity to some extent, but monetary policy – to the extent that one can call it such – was largely subordinate to other economic policy. One important task for the Riksbank during this period was to secure the funding needs of the government and the housing sector. This was of course only possible because the markets  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  were so strictly regulated and separate from the surrounding world. In other words, the situation was completely different then – although some of the regulation tools used then have begun to come back into fashion, albeit in another form and context.
In addition, the government uses more of the petroleum revenues than before. Growth in public expenditure started to accelerate in 1997 after having been low in the mid-1990s. Spending growth has also been fairly strong in recent years, but perhaps somewhat slower than earlier. 6/7  The fiscal rule for the budget implies that the government can use 4 per cent of the Fund over time. This year, around 6 per cent is being used. The deviation partly reflects an unexpected shortfall in tax revenues in recent years. The government budget deficit is the difference between total revenues and total expenditure. They each account for about half of total GDP in Norway. Even small deviations from expenditure and revenue projections can have a major impact on the deficit. Exchange rate changes will also lead to fluctuations in the value of the Petroleum Fund. For these reasons alone, the use of petroleum revenues may in periods deviate from the 4 per cent rule. Spending was also increased in response to the economic downturn. We can, therefore, safely affirm that the fiscal rule has been normative for fiscal policy. Together with the fiscal rule, the monetary policy guidelines provide the framework for economic policy in Norway. The various components of economic policy have varying effects. This is why they have different functions: •  Monetary policy steers inflation in the medium and long term and can also contribute to smoothing swings in output and employment.

I would therefore like to comment briefly on our assessment for the next three years, based on the analyses in the most recent Inflation Report published in June (Inflation Report 2/05) and updates at the most recent monetary policy meetings. The economic situation The Norwegian economy is in an upturn and is now expanding at a brisk pace. Inflation remains low, but has edged up since last year. The risk of a fall in the level of prices and markedly lower inflation expectations has diminished. At the same time, there appears to be little risk that inflation will rapidly move up to a level that is too high. The interest rate reductions through 2003 and into 2004 have resulted in low real interest rates. For a period, the real interest rate has been considerably lower than normal. The low level of interest rates is supporting the high activity level in the Norwegian economy. The economic upturn is broad-based. At the beginning of the recovery, activity was primarily fuelled by private consumption, traditional exports and petroleum investment. In addition, growth in mainland fixed investment has gradually gained considerable momentum. Monetary policy easing and low inflation have resulted in strong growth in household real disposable income. Private consumption and housing investment have risen sharply. House prices have continued to rise. Debt growth remains high. The economic upturn has continued this year. High petroleum investment, the international upturn and higher commodity prices have boosted output and earnings in the manufacturing sector.
Given the Riksbank’s current mandate, it is difficult to accept large deviations from the inflation target over a long period of time. The more the inflation target is stretched, the more important the question of the general public’s confidence in the target will be and our principal’s attitude to the framework. This worries me, as the framework with a focus on price stability and an independent central bank has been successful as a nominal anchor in the economy. I therefore consider it important that we “stick to our last” and safeguard the inflation target. This does not mean that I oppose a further development of the framework that could lead to better attainment of the inflation target. However, this is a discussion to which I will have to return at a later point. References Bean, Charles (2009), The Great Moderation, the Great Panic and the Great Contraction. Schumpeter Lecture, Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Bank of England. Bernanke, Ben S. (2010), Monetary policy and the housing bubble. Speech at the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, Atlanta, Georgia on 3 January 2010, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Bäckström, Urban (1998), The present situation. Speech on 25 August 1998, Sveriges Riksbank. Bäckström, Urban (2003), “1990-talets väg till prisstabilitet” (the 1990s route to price stability). Chapter 6 in Jonung (ed.) På jakt efter ett nytt ankare. Från fast kronkurs till inflationsmål. (Hunting for a new anchor. From fixed exchange rate to inflation target) SNS Förlag.

14  Model estimates of the short-term relation between the repo rate and household indebtedness indicate that the average effects may be relatively small: a 1 per cent lower repo rate over a period of one year, and which gradually reverts, will give rise to an approximately 4 percentage points higher level of indebtedness as a percentage of disposable income. Similar estimates of the relation between housing prices and the repo rate also show small effects – see Sveriges Riksbank (2011) Chapter 2.1.However, estimates of short-term relations might underestimate the total effects of the repo rate on household indebtedness. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  and having a potentially better target attainment in the long run is thus very unclear. On the other hand, the costs in terms of poorer target attainment a couple of years ahead are very clear. Other tools than the repo rate could moreover influence household debt more effectively. Various types of tax tools are probably particularly potent, such as tax deduction regulations and property taxation, but at the same time these are the most politically sensitive. So-called macroprudential policy tools are probably more effective than monetary policy in influencing debt in the household sector. Finansinspektionen, which has been given the main responsibility for these tools, has already used several of them and has signalled that it will remain vigilant with regard to risks linked to household indebtedness. This should reasonably have an effect on the monetary policy trade-offs.
Forecasts for Annual Growth 2009  2010  Previous Forecast  New Forecast  Previous Forecast  New Forecast  World  -1,3  -1,4  1,9  2,5  Developed Countries  -3,8  -3,8  0,0  0,6  USA  -2,8  -2,6  0,0  0,8  Eurozone  -4,2  -4,8  -0,4  -0,3  Developing Countries 1,6  1,5  4,0  4,7  IMF  OECD All OECD Members  -4,3  -4,1  -0,1  0,7  USA  -4,0  -2,8  0,0  0,9  Eurozone  -4,1  -4,8  -0,3  0,0  World  -2,1  -2,6  1,9  2,1  USA  -2,7  -2,6  1,8  2,1  Eurozone  -3,4  -4,4  0,3  0,4  Consensus Forecasts *  Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April and IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July. OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March and OECD Economic Outlook, 2009/I, June. *Consensus Forecasts, April and Consensus Forecasts, July. In sum, assessing domestic and external demand developments together, revised forecasts for medium-term inflation are based on a framework where aggregate demand conditions would support disinflation for a long period of time. Distinguished Guests, Despite the realization that recovery in the global economy will be slow, increasing perceptions regarding the worst part of the crisis being over caused a rebound in commodity prices.

Nina Stoyanova: The future of money Speech by Ms Nina Stoyanova, Deputy Governor and Head of the Banking Department of the Bulgarian National Bank, at the Manager Magazine Fourth Banking and Finance Forum “The Future of Money”, Sofia, 20 October 2021. * * * Thank you for inviting me to open today’s fourth Banking and Finance Forum on the topic ofThe Future of Money. New technologies are changing the financial sector today and leading to the offering of increasingly diverse and convenient payment products in a highly competitive environment. The policies of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and national regulators are aimed at catalysing this process, to exploit more fully the potential offered by technology and to achieve cheaper, safer and more accessible payment solutions. The dynamics of the processes in Europe is also fully valid for our country. Data on payments processed by payment systems in our country show a significant growth. For the first six months of 2021, the value of payments made through the BNB-operated Real-time Gross Settlement System in BGN (RINGS) increased by 30% compared to the first half of 2020, while for the same period the value of payments in euro through the national component system of the large-value payment system in euro – TARGET2-BNB increased by 65.7%. I would like to touch briefly on some of the recent technological developments in the field of payment services in the European Union and in our country.
But, in my opinion, we are moving in the right direction. Were we to compare the snapshot of 10-12 years ago with what we can see today, I believe we could describe events as a revolution rather than evolution. Despite this revolution, what has not changed over this period is the type of relationship that we supervisors have with banks. The supervisor/supervisee relationship is not straightforward, and nor is it free from tensions and differences. These tensions and differences are inevitable and part of the so-called “supervisory dialogue”. I would go so far as to say that these differences in our relationship are not only inevitable but indeed positive. As Gonzalo said earlier, we should understand one another both in our agreements and disagreements, constantly maintaining a transparent and sincere dialogue. Despite these differences, supervisors and supervisees share a common goal. We both want banks to be sustainable and continue servicing their customers, both now and in the future. To achieve this goal society needs solvent banks, with a sufficient level of capital to withstand economic ups and downs, and profitable banks, with enough capacity to generate profits to remunerate capital. In my public appearances. I usually go on now to give an itemised list of “duties” for banks. It’s a familiar list and the duties are constantly referred to and published in the press. But for once I will sidestep this list of duties, something which both banks and, very possibly, all of you will appreciate.

Mark Carney: £ note character selection announcement Speech by Mr Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, Turner Contemporary Gallery, Margate, 22 April 2016. *  *  *  Though I’m surrounded by sublime art and architecture, typically for a Governor of the Bank of England, I want to begin by talking about money. Throughout history money has come in many forms – gold and silver coins; English “tally sticks” made of willow; even stone disks of up to twelve feet in diameter, pocket change on the Pacific island of Yap. It’s true; a Yap stone makes up part of the reserves of the Bank of Canada. Such variety has meant economists have struggled to define money. The Nobel Prizewinning economist, John Hicks, simply wrote “money is what money does.”1 Wisdom or sophistry? There’s a bit of Popeye or Forrest Gump in that.2 But what does money do? To some, banknotes are mere “barren tokens.”3 These meagre pieces of paper – soon to be polymer – of no intrinsic value, actually serve vital economic functions. They facilitate trade. They store value. They serve as a unit of account. As the soon-to-be replaced incumbent of our £ note, Adam Smith, wrote, they are the “universal instrument of commerce.”4 Most fundamentally, Money is Memory.5 Money supplants the need to keep track of promises to exchange goods and services across time; it is a simple, universal replacement for detailed record keeping. Money is memory in another sense.