samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But had we joined at the outset the presumption must be that over the past two years we would have lived with both a lower exchange rate and lower interest rates during a period when we have in any case been operating close to productive capacity and growing at above trend. The likelihood therefore is that we would then have experienced something of an inflationary boom - as they have, for example, in Ireland though I am not sure one can generalise from the Irish experience. The subsequent weakening of the euro since the beginning of last year has not made things any easier for us. Just as, I suggested earlier, the euro is substantially undervalued in terms of the medium-term “fundamentals”, so in the same terms sterling is on most calculations substantially overvalued against the euro. To lower sterling to a more sustainable level in present conditions would again require an easing of monetary policy which would destabilise our overall domestic economy; and this in turn would tend to set in train a process that would lock in a subsequent real UK exchange rate appreciation within the Eurozone (albeit from an initially less uncompetitive level). That might help reduce sectoral imbalances in the short term, only for them to re-emerge. And in the meantime the whole of the economy would have been exposed to accelerating inflation, which we would be powerless to address through national monetary policy.

Third, the authorities have ruled that banks may effectively use the capital buffers available to absorb unexpected losses. It has also been announced that banks will have a lengthy period for the subsequent reconstruction of these buffers, in the event they are used. Fourth, the European financial authorities, including the Banco de España, have recommended that banks temporarily eliminate dividend payouts and that they apply prudent criteria in the variable remuneration of their staff. The aim is to channel the resources generated towards strengthening their capital positions. These measures will be reviewed before the end of the year. In any event, however, banks’ dividend payout and staff remuneration policy should continue to be highly prudent until the current uncertainty clears and a sound economic recovery takes root. Fifth, there has been a regulatory reform of capital requirements (known as Quick Fix). The fix includes permanent measures, such as adapting the SME support factor in the calculation of risk-weighted assets, and temporary measures, such as the application of a prudential filter to changes in the value of sovereign debt instruments. As a result, banks’ shock-absorption capacity has been enhanced and, in turn, assistance has been given to financing to firms and to the investments that may be most affected.
It became increasingly obvious that the trade-off between inflation and unemployment that had previously been taken for granted did not apply, that each new attempt to raise employment by expanding demand only resulted eventually in increasingly higher inflation (see Chart 1). It is easy to understand why. When inflation rises, it affects the wage demands in the next round of wage negotiations. Wage-earners are interested in the actual purchasing power of their wage and structure their wage demands accordingly. Inflation thus increases without any effect on employment. The conclusion is that in the long run there is no trade-off between inflation and unemployment. But even though inflation does not have any long-term impact on employment, it does affect economic growth and welfare. High inflation disrupts the mechanism by which goods’ relative values are signalled via prices, and distorts the reasons to save. This problem is perhaps especially significant for investment when the return is expected to be yielded over a long period in the future. In such cases, uncertainty over price developments can have a curbing effect. Furthermore, there is an increase in uncertainty about future developments in wages and costs, making it more difficult for agents in an economy to make economic decisions. Lenders may decide to set a higher rate of interest to compensate for any rise in inflation, and firms may decide not to invest in new machinery or to hire employees.

Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to conclude my remarks by reminding commercial banks that they must become proactive in identifying new markets and developing appropriate new products and services, especially for the excluded population if they have to remain competitive and relevant in our fast growing banking sector. As has been echoed at various meetings, the Bank of Zambia has financial inclusion as one of its strategic objectives and initiatives by market players to make this vision a reality are always highly commended. The Bank of Zambia will play its own role and make every effort to create an environment that supports innovation and market developments by financial institutions. Managing Director, distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, It is therefore, the Bank of Zambia’s expectation that Zanaco and other banks will take advantage of opportunities arising from the general positive economic outlook on account of improving macroeconomic conditions and improvements so far recorded in various sectors of the economy and foster greater developments in the financial sector. Finally, let me extend my gratitude to the Board of Directors and the Managing Director of Zanaco inviting me on this occasion to mark the official launch the Ndola west Branch. It now my honour and privilege to declare the Ndola west Branch officially opened. I thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
•  The euro has boosted direct investment within the euro area. Mergers between companies in the euro area have risen noticeably. •  The euro has also led to a marked increase in cross-border security investments within the euro area. This is only one example of the contribution made by the single currency to the integration of the financial markets in Europe. It’s not over yet. The ECB and the Eurosystem strongly support a further integration of Europe’s financial markets. These developments show that the euro is an important catalyst for the completion of the single European market. The logic of “one market, one currency” was a substantial impetus for monetary integration in Europe. It has proved to be correct. The euro, monetary policy and employment Priority for price stability, which is a necessary precondition for sustainable growth and employment, in the euro area did not come by any means at the expense of employment. This is reflected in a number again: between the introduction of the euro in 1999 and 2008, the number of persons employed in the euro area increased by more than 16 million. In the years before, from 1990 to 1998, the increase in persons employed was less than 6 million. These new jobs in the euro area were not created by the euro. There is no direct relationship because the change in employment is affected by many factors. But it is a confirmation that a monetary policy oriented towards price stability is fully compatible with job creation.

If Sweden chooses to remain outside, it will ultimately be difficult to get the participating countries to understand our actions. The fact that the monetary union is a major component of a larger process of integration means that we cannot expect to get simple answers to our questions by adopting an attitude of wait-and-see. Assessing the project over a complete business cycle certainly has its advantages but the prevailing uncertainty is costly. Investments are postponed or shelved. Twin systems have to be maintained. I am convinced, moreover, that new questions will arise all the time. We shall never be able to tell just how EMU will develop. This is something that those who participate decide as they go along. In the event of turbulence in the world around us, participants in the euro area have extra protection. This was evident last autumn, when the financial market turbulence hit the Swedish krona more heavily than the Finnish markka. On the other hand, as euro participants we would be in the same boat as at least eleven other countries. That naturally implies greater dependence – we would be clearly involved in problems that arise in the euro area. The only way to counter that would be by actively influencing developments in the euro area in the right direction. An insurance argument can be put for remaining outside the euro area. If we continue to manage the economy properly, there should be freedom of action in our economic policy. But this is not a simple matter.
The decision is not very popular, but it is necessary to ensure the economic efficiency of OSAGO. At the same time, we are looking for new growth areas together with the market. In particular, this is about developing life and medical insurance. We also had to take supervisory measures. As a recent example licence of a major market participant was restricted for two weeks. Certainly, the licence restriction of such a large player was an outstanding event for the market. As a regulator we realised the importance of such a step, but we consider it necessary for the benefit of consumers to implement all the available measures to restore order and eliminate unlawful practices such as imposing services, non-applying bonus-malus ratio, etc. We have established a consumer right protection service, and we pay special attention to processing claims. We will try to make the process of lodging claims convenient for citizens and will try to respond to claims in an efficient manner. One of our important objectives is to work out a concept of financial literacy. We also consider accessibility of financial services to be an important condition for proper functioning of the financial market. Another field of our concern is the development of the national payment system. In less than a year after the decision was taken, a processing and clearing centre was created and interRussian transactions of international payment systems were transferred there. Currently, we are actively developing our own payment card.

It also has the ability to make Recommendations within the Bank, to HMT and to any other person, with a view to achieving its statutory objectives. 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  The post-crisis reforms embody the lesson of that: keep up… …with the risks the system faces. And with the shape of the system as it shifts. To keep the system capable of serving in the bad times as well as the good. Today – declaring my obvious conflict of interest – I want to look back to consider how, over five years, we’ve got the system to a place where it can serve the economy in bad times as well as good. And then I want to look ahead, to the macro trends of Brexit, borrowing and the unbundling of banking and the challenges they present to keeping up. Looking back, we have largely corrected the fault lines that underlay the crisis. In particular, the banking system has been strengthened. Not everyone agreed it should be strengthened so much. But it was obvious that it needed to happen. The economic costs of major banks getting into distress are vast. So they must be able to withstand – and keep lending through – even very severe and rare economic events. That’s why we stress test them to economic scenarios more severe than the financial crisis. It’s why the largest banks must fund themselves with 10 times more capital than they did before the crisis.
The opening of the first Chinese overseas university campus in Malaysia, Xiamen University, is a testimony of such close ties. Market development initiatives to support real economic activities Financial institutions, being the intermediaries to these trades and investment flows, need to 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  realise there are ample opportunities that lie within these developments. As an early pioneer of renminbi initiatives, Bank Negara has undertaken a number of initiatives to build the renminbi infrastructure, ranging from the currency swap and QFII (2009), direct trading of renminbi-ringgit (2010), Cross-Border Collateral Arrangement (CBCA) (2013), renminbi clearing bank (2014) and more recently RQFII (2015). At the same time, the Bank, through Myclear, had also worked to integrate renminbi into our domestic financial system through renminbi settlement in RENTAS and the RMB Liquidity Facility for our onshore banks to facilitate more effective renminbi liquidity management in Malaysia. To date, 22 banks have embarked on renminbi business, and renminbi trade settlement has gradually gained traction, accounting for 3.2% of total trade with China from 0.4% five years ago. However, the market remains concentrated to only few players with the top three banks representing 80% of the loans and deposits market, and more than 60% of FX market.

In switching to renminbi, corporations should review on the internal changes required, such as invoicing and trade documentation in renminbi, accounting and any other operational procedures, including engaging banks which are able to provide advice and facilitate trade financing in renminbi. Banks need to be ready in this area, to develop the system to support the trade financing and to be familiar and current with the rules and regulations of the Chinese authorities. Further improvement should be looked into to entice more participation, and efficient ways should be explored to ease trade facilitation in renminbi. In another aspect, this space can also capitalise on another work area of the Financial Market Committee in looking at the introduction of a more standardised documentation requirement across industry. Coupled with the broader and more flexible trade financing facilities and hedging tools, this will create a more business-friendly market which will in turn amplify participation. 5. Last but not least, is to develop investment products in renminbi. In the past, the efforts in promoting the use of renminbi has primarily emphasised transactions or trades in goods and services between the two countries. With the transformation and internationalisation of renminbi, we should accelerate our understanding of the renminbi financial markets and to see the renminbi as a viable choice of currency for financial investments. In November 2015, China granted RQFII country quota of RMB50 billion to Malaysia to enable financial institutions here to invest in China’s onshore financial markets. The renminbi financial market in Malaysia remains incomplete with limited investment avenues.
17  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  17  Whether in speeches such as this or in our collective communications we will continue to be as open and transparent as possible about our interpretation of the data and its implications for policy. And we will continue to respond as events evolve to bring inflation sustainably back to target, in line with our remit. 18  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  18

Tharman Shanmugaratnam: MoneySENSE launches new programmes to reach more Singaporeans Speech by Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the launch of the MoneySENSE 2006 Roadshow, Singapore, 31 March 2006. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests Friends from NTUC and various community organizations Ladies and Gentlemen Boys and Girls  Introduction 1. I am pleased to launch the inaugural MoneySENSE 2006 Roadshow, which seeks to bring financial education to Singaporeans from all walks of life. MoneySENSE has done well 2. MoneySENSE is on a roll. Since its launch in October 2003, it has seen over 140 talks, seminars and workshops on financial education, attracting over 15,000 participants. It has also published 16 consumer guides with a total circulation exceeding one million. 3. These achievements are results of collaboration between government, industry, community groups and our media partners. I encourage MoneySENSE to build on and expand these strong partnerships, and bring financial education to even more Singaporeans. 4. Let me now touch on a few new programmes that MoneySENSE has lined up this year. MoneySENSE launches new programmes to reach more Singaporeans MoneySENSE 2006 Roadshow 5. Today's MoneySENSE 2006 Roadshow presents simple financial education messages and tips to adults and children through fun activities. A simple game of shooting basketballs into nets from different distances is used to highlight risk-return tradeoffs.
They like to ask the question: “Does the Investment Banker know the difference between right and wrong?” To which the answer is: “Of course he does, provided he’s allowed two guesses!” Having arrived at the Bank over three years ago, I am often asked what I actually do there. And the answer is that I have three main roles. First, I am one of the nine members of the MPC; secondly, I have responsibility for the Bank’s work in financial stability; and thirdly, I have day-to-day responsibility for the management of the Bank. One way or another, wearing these three hats involves me in most of what the new Bank of England does - new in the sense that the 1997 changes, incorporated in the Bank of England 1998 Act, were fundamental to the Bank’s activities. Without providing a personalised “this is how I spend my day” account we occasionally read in the newspapers, perhaps I could say a little about each of these roles. Monetary Policy Committee Being a member of the Monetary Policy Committee is a hugely rewarding experience. The process we go through has been quite well documented elsewhere so let me be brief in my description. We are required by the 1998 Bank of England Act to meet at least monthly, although we have the right to meet as often as we wish.

However, as from last  BIS Review79/2009  7  autumn a second wave of shocks was unleashed, resulting in a real global crisis which, naturally, is impacting Spanish banks. The Spanish economy’s entry into recession has consequences for banking and bad debts. In particular, such repercussions include those arising from the high sensitivity of employment – and, therefore, of households’ ability to pay – to the deterioration in activity, and those from the adjustment of the real estate sector, the relative weight of which in bank balance sheets had become significant. The deterioration in the economic situation reduces the demand for credit of bank customers, whose spending plans and income expectations are normally revised downwards during economic downturns. Likewise, banks become more cautious about granting loans as a result of the subsequent upward revision of the risk profile of borrowers. In combination, these two factors translate, as we have actually seen, into a substantial slowdown in bank credit. Based on the past cyclical behaviour of this variable, the growth rate of bank credit will tend to stand below that of GDP. This cyclical component of credit is currently being reinforced by the difficulties still besetting wholesale funding markets and by the need both in Spain and in the rest of the international financial system to redress the high levels of leverage attained in the past. The behaviour of banks’ bad debts also follows certain cyclical patterns.
The empirical literature on the Chilean case provides evidence of a negative correlation between the pass-through coefficient of nominal depreciations to inflation and the credibility of the Central Bank. Said credibility is fundamental to allowing the real exchange rate to contribute in the adjustments of the economy. As for recent developments, the evidence shows that more autonomous central banks have implemented more aggressive monetary expansions (Figure 3). Conclusions Twenty years into the era of autonomy of the Central Bank of Chile, we can say that it has succeeded and it is consolidated. There remain challenges ahead. The evolution of the economy in the past few years has raised issues that need to be further analyzed to improve the policy framework. An objective look at reality – acknowledging the personal conflicts of interests I have in acting as an independent referee – shows that our country’s current monetary policy has succeeded as never before. The business cycle has been smoothed and low inflation has been consolidated. Inflationary expectations have stabilized and it is possible to implement a truly countercyclical monetary policy. Of great support has been the accountable and predictable fiscal policy. The successes in the conduct of monetary policy owe to the work of many people. Many from outside the Bank have stressed the importance of its autonomy and its macroeconomic achievements, and have also made strong contributions to improving the conduct of monetary policy. This enables the consolidation of the institution. Many from within the Central Bank have contributed decisively as well.

José De Gregorio: Autonomy of the Central Bank of Chile, 20 years on Presentation by Mr José De Gregorio, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, at the commemoration of the 20 years of autonomy of the Central Bank of Chile, organised by ICARE, Santiago, 29 October 2009. I thank Luis Felipe Céspedes and Jorge Restrepo for valuable comments and ideas in preparing this presentation. *  *  *  The autonomy of the Central Bank of Chile is enshrined in the Constitution, specifically in the Basic Constitutional Act of the Central Bank of Chile enacted in October 1989 that constituted a fundamental change for the functioning of the Chilean economy. The Law stipulates that the Central Bank is an autonomous entity, of a technical nature, created in accordance with constitutional provisions, with full legal capacity, the full owner of its assets and of indefinite duration.