samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Over time, the employment share has fluctuated around a stationary average. The same is true in other countries. •  The effects of technology have been felt, at least to some degree, in hours worked, as Keynes predicted back in the 1930s. In the UK, the average working week has fallen from 50 hours a century ago to around 30 hours today (Chart 11). Nonetheless, this fall-off has fallen well short of Keynes’ prediction of a 15-hour week. The “leisure classes” are no more numerous today than a century ago. •  Shifts in population – through changes in birth/death rates or through immigration – have also had no obvious impact on employment. The relationship between population growth and the employment share is, if anything, positive (Chart 12). This, too, is evidence of the compensation effects of population growth – higher output and demand – outweighing any displacement effects in the jobs market. •  As technology has boosted productivity and incomes, its fruits have been harvested by workers, typically in the form of higher wages. Since 1750, the upwards march of productivity has largely been matched by the upwards march of real wages (Chart 13). Since the Industrial Revolution, the former has risen on average by 1.1% per year, the latter by 0.9% per year. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  •  The same pattern was evident prior to the Industrial Revolution. Then, the absence of technological progress led to productivity flat-lining. The real incomes of workers similarly flat-lined (Chart 13).

For my family, it was real. For many communities and regions it was a blight, social every bit as much as economic. Across the country, it depressed the everyday lives of millions of adults, some of whose sons and daughters I knew as friends. And it was a blight that affected not one generation, but many. It was that experience as a teenager that led me to commit to economics, and to public service, as a way to understand, and perhaps try and correct, that economic and social blight. And more than thirty years on, those are the same reasons I remain committed to better understanding, and perhaps hoping to improve a fraction, the functioning of the economy to this day. Those wrenching developments in the UK labour market in the early 1980s have been repeated throughout history, since at least the Industrial Revolution. The cycles and shifts in  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  jobs and wages, and attempts to moderate them, are as old as civilisation itself. Today’s cycles and shifts in the labour market are, in some respects, an echo of that past. As in the past, technology is changing the quantum and nature of work, displacing some jobs while creating others. As I will discuss, through each of the Industrial Revolutions innovation has disrupted the number and nature of jobs. Often, it has led to a so-called “hollowing out” of mid-skilled workers and a widening wage gap across the economy. Yet, in other respects, this time may be different.
The first clear signs that these developments were not sustainable emerged in 2007 – in the US housing market, in the money market and in banks. BIS Review 16/2009  7  Few countries benefited more than Norway from the economic upturn, which drove up prices for oil, gas and other export commodities. At the same time, an increasing number of cheap consumer goods were imported from new EU countries and from Asia. In addition, EEA enlargement provided Norway with large inflows of labour, particularly from Poland. Moreover, Norwegian firms were also quick to make use of new technology and organise their activities effectively. Norway’s disposable income increased by more than 50 per cent from 2002 to 2007, more than that of any other western country. Not surprisingly, economic agents in Norway were optimistic about the future. Saving fell, and euphoria spread through the housing market. Household and corporate debt surged. Inflation slowed for a long period. Norges Bank reduced the key rate when inflation fell and approached zero in 2003 and 2004. Production capacity had increased markedly, providing scope for strong growth in demand for goods and services. Low interest rates underpinned the solid growth capacity of the economy. Well before inflation picked up, the Bank began to raise the key rate in 2005. The pace of the interest rate rise was gradually increased. 8  BIS Review 16/2009  The economic turnaround in Norway occurred just over a year ago. Growth in consumption came to a halt and house prices began to fall.

Indeed, the spirit of "acting for greater good" is clearly manifested by all those who are involved in the organisation of this conference. We are also very pleased in having participants as well as experts and resource persons of multilateral agencies from as many as 12 different countries. The attendance of so many participants and experts from the domestic and the international community for this conference speaks volumes for the importance of this subject and the universal relevance of the issues to be deliberated in this conference. I would like to extend my heartfelt appreciation to the speakers and moderators who had make their way to Kuala Lumpur from all around the globe; it is indeed an honour to have all of you here to speak at this important conference. Our thanks to those international multilateral institutions in working with longestablished domestic and regional organisations in participating or organising regional conferences on topical issues. On a few occasion, we have observed some multilateral institutions upstaging these regional bodies. This is not beneficial nor the right thing to do. It is better to collaborate and avoid duplicity so that, overall, it will be a win-win for all parties. I. Remaining vigilant in facing turbulence amid economic downturn regionally and globally  The current global financial crisis is centred in the advanced economies and the severe financial instability and the resultant economic downturns has affected and infected the developing world as well. This shows that we live in an increasingly interconnected world.
Against a backdrop of these global challenges, the Islamic financial sector has continued to advance. Value-based intermediation has become more entrenched in the corporate value intent and business strategies of Islamic financial institutions. According to AIBIM"s VBI report which will be launched later today, RM146.6 billion in financing, investments and deposits were intermediated by Islamic banks in VBI-related or VBIaligned initiatives between 2020 and 2021. Tools such as the VBIAF Sectoral Guides, implementation roadmaps and reporting frameworks are now widely used by the industry to drive positive value and impact on the economy, society and environment. The intermediation of capital is also more diverse, with innovative instruments mobilising "beyond deposits", adding risk-absorbent capital and social capital into the mix. Notwithstanding the progress, one might question whether Islamic finance has been living up to its promise and full potential. Let me highlight three challenges here. 1. One, it appears as if we are still in the early days of value-based finance. Many financial institutions – conventional and Islamic alike – have yet to make important changes to how they operate and do business to fully deliver on value-based finance. Five years since the launch of the VBI initiative in 2017, the majority of Community of Practitioners members are only at the "Emerging" phase of implementation. 1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  2. Meanwhile, the efforts to diversify value-based capital – such as to fund new ventures and other VBI-aligned outcomes – is far from full realisation.

Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus: Keynote address - Global Islamic Finance Forum 2022 Keynote address by Ms Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Global Islamic Finance Forum 2022, Kuala Lumpur, 5 October 2022. *** It is a pleasure to be here at the seventh Global Islamic Finance Forum today. At GIFF 2018, I made a call for us to "rethink value, risk and human capital" in charting a new path of Islamic finance beyond profits. And so, I thought that it would be fitting for my remarks today to reflect on the progress made, and how Islamic finance has measured to its promise, especially in the context of developments globally since 2018. Indeed, a lot has happened in these four years. The world also continues to face various challenges as we speak. We weathered an unprecedented pandemic, transitioned into the endemic phase and are now on the path to recovery. But the road continues to be rocky. Next year, global growth is expected to moderate. This challenging environment is further complicated by inflationary pressures which is leading major central banks to tighten monetary policy aggressively. We have also entered a period of strong US dollar, leading to almost all major and regional currencies – the ringgit included – depreciating. In addition, the heightened geopolitical tensions have also fuelled global food and energy security concerns. All these challenges are also complicating the green and climate transition.
A common approach to analysing the effect of the interest rate in models where it is endogenously determined is to apply an exogenous impulse or a shock to the interest rate. This means that the interest rate is raised in response to factors other than those that can be explained historically by the other variables in the model. The effect of such a rise in the interest rate will depend on the variables included in the model, the model’s structure and estimation period. On the one hand, the result can be more robust if we use a long time-series in the estimation. On the other hand, historical changes in monetary policy regimes can influence the results. It may therefore be of greater interest to confine the estimation period to, for instance, the period of inflation targeting – the past ten years. 8  Consumer price inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE)  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  The chart shows the effect of an interest rate increase on output and inflation over time in 11 VAR models. These models only differ in that they are estimated on data from slightly different time periods. In each estimation we use data up to the present, but start the estimation at different points in time between 1986 and 1996. In the analysis, the interest rate is raised by 1 percentage point, that is, an interest rate shock is applied.

King (2013) “Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply” Journal of Financial Economics Volume 108, Issue 2, Pages 425-448 for evidence associated with programmes conducted in the US and Joyce et al. (2010) in the UK. vii See speeches of August 2016 (Handelsblatt conference), September 2016 (annual CERS conference) and April 2017 (conference at Columbia University). viii Stefan Zweig, Visiting the billions (Besuch bei den Milliarden), 1932. ix Stefan Zweig, The World of Yesterday, Memories of a European, 1944.
The OECD’s Economic Outlook in May 2011 expected the robust growth to continue, with increases in real GDP of on average 3.3 per cent in 2010–2015. It was expected that the policy rate would need to be raised gradually as economic activity improved.6 A similar assessment was made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July 2011. GDP growth was assumed to gradually decline to 3 per cent in 2014, when inflation was expected to amount to 2 per cent (measured in terms of the HICP). It was assumed that the interest-rate increases that had begun would need to continue.7 One conclusion I draw from this is that many unexpected events have occurred in recent years. The situation today is rather different than all analysts – both on the Executive Board of the Riksbank and outside the bank – were expecting at this time. I shall return to this later. Another conclusion is that the general picture was that the Riksbank’s policy was on the whole well-motivated and essentially based on traditional monetary policy deliberations. Although there were different opinions on exactly how high the repo rate should be, as there always are, the policy was thus not perceived as odd or conspicuous.

Although foreigners, including non-EU nationals, are present in all sectors and at all levels, their employment has increased mainly in professional and administrative support services, and not as is sometimes claimed, in sectors characterised by lower skill levels. The increased employment of foreign nationals across occupations has enabled organisations to grow and venture in new areas. A sudden reversal of this pattern could stall activity in several sectors. Efforts to upgrade the country’s infrastructure should therefore be complemented by measures that prevent a disorderly depletion of foreign human resources and enhance the skills of Maltese nationals. *** Favourable economic developments, although easing somewhat, are expected to continue to buttress financial stability. Lending volumes remain supportive of interest income but pressures on margins persist due to the low interest rate environment. Notwithstanding, profitability remains a challenge for traditional banking models such as those of our banks. In fact, though still comparing favourably with their European peers, the profitability of domestic banks has been slimming. In addition to the limitations on their ability to generate more interest income, banks have to contend with ‘no-fee’ alternative products being developed by fintech players which operate with a lower cost base and hail from a less intrusive regulatory environment. Concurrently, banks are facing a more rigorous and intrusive supervisory approach coupled with more rigorous standards of Anti Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism. This is absolutely necessary and has our full and active support.
In parallel, the Bank of Albania has also paid attention to the strengthening of the financial stability of the country, throughout 2022. Let me now explain in greater detail. ***  2. Banking supervision and financial stability Geopolitical tensions and volatilities in international markets have found our financial system relatively prepared in general and the banking sector in particular. The improvement of risk management systems by banks themselves and the Bank of Albania's continuous monitoring and supervision have played a crucial role in this regard. In this context, I would like to make evident that the activity of the Bank of Albania throughout 2022 was focused in three directions:  First, at the outset of the war in Ukraine, we carried out a complete assessment of the risks jeopardising the banking system from exposures stemming from markets related to the war. Ultimately, these exposures were minor. Nevertheless, in collaboration with commercial banks we conducted some stress test exercises to determine the capacity of banks to face the possible financial costs from this shock. The results from these tests showed that the banking sector was liquid and well-capitalised, able to withstand the assumed shock. Second, the rising trend of interest rates in international markets spurred banks to frequently assess their balance sheets in a considerable manner, which had  4/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  potentially unfavourable affects on the intermediating activity of banks.

Currently, the Bank of Albania is working on the implementation of an instant payment infrastructure. This novelty in the field of payments aims at reaching those market segments which do not use electronic instruments. In the field of currency issue, in 2022 circulation of the new series of Albanian banknotes was completed with the denomination of 10.000 Lekë. The new series bears  6/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  contemporary and sophisticated security features. An educational campaign on the use of the national currency accompanied the entire process. The Bank of Albania has scrupulously managed the international reserve, by observing the main objectives of liquidity and security. Despite the problems faced by international markets in the last year, the level of our foreign reserves is in compliance with our adequacy criteria and with the best international practices. The Bank of Albania has fulfilled its institutional obligations in the framework of the National Plan for European Integration. Since the opening of negotiations in July 2022, the Bank of Albania has intensified its participation and contribution in bilateral meetings with the European Commission, while it has continued economic and financial dialogue through the participation in joint committees with the authorities of the euro area market. Enhancing transparency and accountability through open communication has guided our relationships with the general public and with interest groups. Though, our decisions cannot be adequately conveyed in an economic environment, which is characterized by a limited degree of financial education.
At the end of 2003 the foreign reserves of BoA reached $ covering 4.7 months of imports. BoA continues to maintain its view of a free exchange rate regime. This was reflected in the fewer episodes of BoA’s intervention in the foreign exchange market during the first half of 2003, when the purchase of foreign currency was almost four times that of the second half of the year. Nonetheless, this did not hold back the domestic currency from appreciating against the euro and the US dollar, with a stronger appreciating trend in place in the second half of the year. The appreciation of the domestic currency was one of the factors behind BoA’s 2.0% interest rate cut during year 2003. Monetary indicators have generally been performed in compliance with the forecasts set out in the Bank’s monetary programme. The annual growth rate of lek deposits was 19.1% by the end of the year, which is significantly higher than the annual rates of the pervious years. The credit balance rose by L11.9bn or 30.9%. The new credit increased by 50% meanwhile 76% is in foreign currency. The loans/GDP ratio is still low, at about 7%. The banking system experienced important developments during 2003 and in the beginning of 2004. The entry of two new banks of Albanian capital was soon followed by the successful privatisation of the Savings Bank from the Raiffeisen Zentralbank (RZB) Austria. Now, all in all there are 16 banks in the Albanian Banking system.

Tarisa Watanagase: Setting a balanced regulatory reform agenda – the global challenge and an emerging market perspective Keynote address by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Symposium of SEANZA Forum of Banking Supervisors 2009 "Global Crisis: Challenges for Risk Management and Regulatory Framework”, Phuket, 31 October 2009. *  *  *  Distinguished Colleagues, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure to join all of you here at the Symposium of SEANZA Forum of Banking Supervisors 2009. I am honoured to have the opportunity to share with you my thoughts on the global crisis, and challenges it poses for risk management and regulatory framework, particularly from emerging market perspectives. Despite the recent indication of increasing stabilisation of the global financial markets, the extent of the impact of this crisis and prospect of sustainable recovery still face many uncertainties. This financial crisis has been the most severe in modern time. Not only in terms of width and depth of its impact globally, but more importantly, it has brought into question the very tenet of modern capitalism, the trust in market mechanism, and the rationale for regulation. In short, it ushers in a new paradigm in global financial landscape and regulation. The forces unleashed by the crisis are very powerful, and will continue to drive fundamental changes going forward. We witnessed a widespread collapse of financial institutions worldwide, the apparent demise of certain business models, such as the investment bank, and retrenchment of critical markets such as mortgage securitisation market.
Yves Mersch: Advancing Monetary Union Speech by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Euro Exhibition, Osnabrück, 25 January 2015. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, Euro banknotes and coins are not just a means of payment. The bridges and arches on our banknotes are a symbol of European integration. They stand for the fact that there is a lot which connects us within the Monetary Union, and that our once so divided continent has succeeded in overcoming these deep divisions, as the crisis has recently shown. Our common currency also therefore stands for shared values. “Stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities” have been some of the accession criteria for membership of the EU since the European Council in Copenhagen in June 1993; “Membership presupposes the candidate’s ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.” 1 The recently published legal opinion of the Advocate General of the European Court of Justice in the case of Peter Gauweiler and the Die Linke party against the ECB on the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme also refers to these constitution-like shared legal values. This “constitutional compact” underlies European integration and includes the German constitutional principle of constitutional identity review – it does not exclude it.

In two reports 6, representatives of the private sector, the European Commission and the European Central Bank presented concrete recommendations on how, for example, regulatory barriers could be broken down. Almost 12 years have now passed since the second report was published and some of these proposals and recommendations have still not been implemented. For example, we still do not have an EU-wide framework for the treatment of interests in securities. Drawing once more on the comparison with the United States, a cross-border securities transaction costs at least ten times as much in Europe as it does in the United States. I think that makes it clear that Europe’s economy has a lot to gain from dismantling the relevant regulatory barriers as part of a capital markets union. 5  At that time with the caveat: “to the extent necessary for the proper functioning of the Common Market”. 6  http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/financial-markets/docs/clearing/first_giovannini_report_en.pdf. http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/financial-markets/docs/clearing/second_giovannini_report_en.pdf. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  In addition to harmonised regulation for securities, we should also seek to implement a harmonised legal framework for crisis management. The Council Regulation on cross-border insolvency proceedings has provided a common regulatory framework governing, for example, jurisdictions and the recognition of court judgements. But within this framework, there are substantial national differences, such as regarding the extent to which various stakeholders are protected in the event of an insolvency. In my view, a single resolution framework for non-banks, i.e.