samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The decline of labour market institutions includes lower trade union membership, which reduces the relative bargaining power of labour, and more flexible labour market institutions that can pose challenges See, for example, the effects of the monetary policy pursued by the Federal Reserve in connection with the financial crises in Bivens (2015), the effects of monetary policy in the USA since 1980 in Coiboin (2016), the effects in advanced economies since 1990 in panel data-analyses in Furceri et al. (2016) and effects of the monetary policy conducted by the ECB in connection with and after the financial crises, with a focus on Germany in Bundesbank (2016). 4 One example is that a decline in trade union membership (union rate) reduces the relative bargaining power of labour, exacerbating wage inequality (Frederiksen and Poulsen 2010). Another is that more flexible labour market institutions (although positive for reallocating resources to more productive firms and enabling firm restructuring) can pose challenges for workers, especially those with low skills, and hence play an important role in explaining inequality developments (Alvadero et al 2013). 3  3 [5]  for workers with low skills. Technological progress combined with globalization seems to have played at least some role in increasing inequality within countries. • The discussion of the effects of globalization is interesting. Globalization has for long been a natural part of the Nordic economies. Our dependency on foreign trade is much higher than the global average.

It is not part of our mandate. This is more effectively done by fiscal policy. I don’t believe any other central bank specifically takes this into account either. • But going forward, the Swedish parliamentary committee on finance has asked the Riksbank to evaluate the distributional effects of the expansionary monetary policy in recent years. So this is an area we are working on now and will continue to do so. • As the theme of this conference is “reshaping globalisation” I would like to end by adding some words about my views on the global perspective on equality and the possible explanations for increased inequality in many developed economies during recent decades. As I have said, the contribution from monetary policy to equality should in my view in general be minor. • I do not think you can talk about globalisation without also talking about technology. Some argue that increased inequality in many countries is due to the latest technological progress having been skills biased, resulting in a rise in the skill premium and the decline of some labour market institutions in advanced economies, emerging markets and developing countries 4.
This deviation gives an average unemployment rate of 7.3 per cent. The left-hand square corresponds to an average inflation that is on target, at 2 per cent, which gives an average unemployment rate of 6.5 per cent. The difference between these figures is thus 0.8 percentage points. For Sweden it thus appears that an average inflation rate 0.6 percentage points below the target has led to an 0.8 percentage points higher average unemployment rate over the past 15 years than would have been the case if average inflation has been on target. 16 This estimate appears fairly robust for various assumptions. If one, for example, uses CPIX and CPIF inflation (which on average have undershot the target by less than the CPI inflation) the estimated long-run Phillips curve becomes somewhat flatter and gives roughly the same increased average unemployment. The fact that average unemployment that is compatible with average inflation on target is so much lower than actual average unemployment also indicates that estimates of the long-run sustainable unemployment based on historical averages may have a significant upward bias. 16  A 95-per cent confidence interval for the increased average unemployment is limited by 0.8 ± 0.3 percentage points and thus lies between 0.5 and 1.1 percentage points. Alternative assumptions and sample periods give roughly the same or a larger increase in average unemployment. For details, see Svensson (2012).

In one breath they say that we should not adopt the euro – so that we can keep our own currency and hence retain the ability “to weaken the koruna in bad times” – and then criticise the Czech National Bank for doing exactly that in the bad times of 2013. They then happily add that Greece would have benefited from having its own currency and that Germany is profiting from the euro being weaker than the Deutschmark would have been. The same, however, doesn’t go for the Czech Republic after 2013. These endearing 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  inconsistencies are present throughout the population. Here again, however, the Eurozone and its satellites offer parallels. You in Copenhagen have a fixed exchange rate against the euro (and previously had a fixed rate against the mark) and thus in effect “buy in” monetary policy from Frankfurt. You have your own notes and coins but not your own monetary policy. Note this fine “Scandinavian paradox”: you have an opt-out from the euro following the 2000 referendum, yet you do not make your own monetary policy, nor did you before the euro was created, whereas the Swedes do not have an opt-out (although they have been trying not to fulfil the criteria and not to join ever since rejecting the euro in their 2003 referendum), yet they pursue autonomous monetary policy. I sometimes wonder whether the Czech sitting-on-the-fence approach is heading towards the Danish model. It wouldn’t be my choice, but it’s good to be prepared.
In this context, the idea of a global currency did not prosper in the academic debates – and even less so in policy discussions. One recent exception stands out, to which I would like to pay a special tribute. In 2010, Michel Camdessus launched the Palais Royal initiative. This initiative sheds light on the shortcomings of the International Financial System, in particular its global governance and an overreliance on a single central currency. The initiative suggested a greater role for SDRs and enhanced cooperation between the World Bank, the IMF and the G20. However, other major projects have in parallel been assigned higher priority for instance the successful creation and development of the euro - or have been dictated by necessity - for instance the strengthening of the global financial safety net (GFSN) induced by the great financial crisis and then the Covid crisis. That said, there have been significant progress such as the increase of IMF resources, the two special drawing rights (SDR) allocations (including the last one of 650 billion USD in 2021) and the creation of the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) on the 1st of May by the IMF, which will help deliver the G20 commitment to rechannelling at least 100 billion USD of this allocation to the countries in need. 2. The dangers of a fragmented financial system But there are dangers ahead. We have to avoid shifting from a dollar-dominated system to a confrontational non-system with, for instance, a dollar world opposed to a renminbi world.

Developing as an invoicing currency, for instance in energy markets or in the context of free trade agreements, would be important steps to gain a global role.viii Indeed, it would create the need to store euros for future trades, and consequently lead to the development of a full range of euro-based financial tools. 3. Safeguarding cross-border payments by technological advances in international financial infrastructures The euro area should remain on the frontier for cross-border payments, including the G20 agenda adopted in October 2021. The G20 roadmap for 2027 has indeed committed to bring profound improvements in this area including in setting ambitious targets on costs, speed, and accessibility of cross-border payments. But the challenge for all the stakeholders, central banks, regulators as well as the private sector, is to deliver and ultimately meet the expectations of end-users. This remains a strategic priority for the Banque de France, which in parallel has paved the way for a more prospective solution: namely a  Page 7 sur 7 wholesale CBDC that could be issued by the Eurosystem, deploying experiments such as the Jura project of cross border wholesale payments in coordination with the BIS and the Swiss National Bank. ** In the 1960s, US Secretary of Treasury Henry Fowler warned that "Providing reserves and exchanges for the whole world is too much for one country and one currency to bear." ix To Fowler, we answer: “We in the euro area are happy to help.” I thank you for your attention and I wish you a good forum.
So, what we seem to have observed so far is that the leverage ratio – contrary to much-voiced concerns – has not led to a reduction in repo volumes, but rather to a change in the way trades are settled. And to the extent that these trades are increasingly intermediated through CCPs, this is clearly a positive development. CCPs reduce counterparty and systemic risks and help 14 7 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  clearing members economise the use of scarce collateral.14 There is also empirical evidence that clearing increases market resilience in periods of stress.15 Resilience of trading volumes to regulatory reforms is also confirmed by empirical analysis conducted by ECB staff – the results of which will be published in the ECB’s financial stability review on 29 November. I will offer a short preview today. In this report, ECB staff assess the effects of recent regulatory reforms on repo market developments at quarter-end, based on supervisory data for a sample of more than 50 banks directly supervised by the euro area’s single supervisor. Micro data are important to ensure that aggregate repo market developments do not mask a significant impact of regulatory reforms at the individual bank level. The findings suggest that, although banks’ adjustments to higher leverage ratios seem to be somewhat correlated with a reduction in their repo volumes, the effects are not found to be economically meaningful relative to other exposures.

Easy money is bad for you Slide 1: Landes quote In his book The Wealth and Poverty of Nations the historian David Landes describes how the Spanish empire went into a long period of decline when the flow of Latin-American gold dried up in the mid-17th century. According to Landes, the moral of this story is that “easy money is bad for you. It represents short-run gain that will be paid for in immediate distortions and later regrets.” 1 As a country rich in natural resources, Norway has shared and tried to learn from this experience. Perhaps the quotation from Landes also rings true for all those who borrowed cheaply during the boom before 2008, and who now have to face the consequences. Windfall gains, like large and unsustainable capital flows from abroad, are double-edged. They provide short-term relief from hard choices, but may carry with them hardship in the longer term. Slide 2: Output gap: A boom-bust economy After the discovery of oil in the North Sea in 1969, government spending and social programs expanded rapidly in anticipation of future petroleum revenues. We sought to build a bridge across the post oil-shock recession in Europe. But it was a bridge to nowhere. Fiscal policy had fuelled a boom-bust economy. Inflation soared to double digits. A deep recession started in the late 1970s. Slide 3: Current account balance: Large external deficits The non-oil tradable sector struggled as costs had increased. By 1977, Norway’s current account surplus had turned into a deficit of 12 percent of GDP.
It has probably contributed more to financial crises, and associated output and job losses, than any other area of industry, outside of banking. This is all sobering context. Cycles of the future That naturally begs the question of what can be done to avert a next time? And what role, if any, the Forum might play? I think there are some positive developments to report. These hold out the prospect – no more than that – that next time could be different. But to be successful, these measures will need both industry and regulators to act decisively and in concert. Let’s start with industry. It is clear to me from the Forum’s deliberations that the industry itself understands the need for change. That was brought home when a group of Forum members came together earlier this year, under the chairmanship of Nick Scarles, to produce “A Vision for Real Estate Finance in the UK”. This was published in October. The recommendations in this report make eminent sense. For example, they include proposals to improve loan-level commercial real estate data. This would improve monitoring of aggregate exposures to the sector and modelling of real estate risk. The recommendation that caught my eye related to valuation. Valuation lies at the heart of the pro-cyclical spirals we have seen historically in the commercial property market. Peaky valuations can give the appearance of a safety margin for lenders, causing them to loosen their grip on credit conditions, thus driving valuations higher still. Chart 2 illustrates this spiral in the UK.

How the banking and financial system operates will clearly have an impact on the way in which climate risk is managed or reduced. The HKMA, in support of the mission to reduce climate risk and to achieve sustainable finance, would like to launch three sets of measures. Green and Sustainable Banking 3. In September 2017, I announced seven measures that the HKMA would undertake to bring Hong Kong into the new era of Smart Banking. The main objective of the Smart Banking Initiatives is to promote financial innovation, better customer experience and financial inclusion. What I am going to propose today is to enlarge the ambit of this exercise to “Smart and Sustainable Banking”. We all appreciate the damages and economic losses caused by increased frequency and ferocity of natural disasters arising from global warming and climate change. The increased risk of business disruption and adverse impact on collateral value of properties also pose real threat to the banking system. So it is now time for the HKMA and the banking industry to take a more proactive approach to manage climate risk by pursuing “Green and Sustainable Banking”. The HKMA will soon issue guidance to the banks in Hong Kong that a three-phased approach will be taken to promote Green and Sustainable Banking: Phase I – this will entail the development of a common framework to assess the existing baseline of individual banks in order to establish how “green” they are currently.
Billi, R. and A. Vredin (2014), “Monetary policy and financial stability – a simple story,” Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review, 2014:2. Bernanke, B. (2013), “The economic outlook”, Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2023), “Review of the Federal Reserve‘s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank”, 28 April 2023. Borio, C. and P. Lowe (2002), “Financial and monetary stability: Exploring the nexus”, BIS Working Paper No. 114. 25 [30]  Brandao-Marques, L., G. Gelos, M. Narita and E. Nier (2020), “Leaning against the wind: A cost-benefit analysis for an integrated policy framework”, IMF Working Paper, WP/20/123. Brunnermeier, M. (2023), “Rethinking monetary policy in a changing world”, Finance & Development, March 2023. Capie, F., S. Fischer, C. Goodhart, and N. Schnadt (eds) (1994), “The future of central banking: the tercentenary symposium of the Bank of England”, Cambridge University Press. Cochrane, J. (2023), “The fiscal theory of the price level”, Princeton University Press. Diamond, D. and P. Dybvig (1983), “Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91. Eichengreen, B., et al. (2011), Rethinking Central Banking, Report, Committee on International Economic Policy and Reform, Brookings institution, Washington, DC. European Commission (2023), “Reform of bank crisis management and deposit insurance (CMDI) framework”, 18 April 2023. FDIC (2023), “FDIC’S supervision of Signature Bank”, 28 April 2023. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2022), “The Shifting Tides of Global Trade”, Annual Report 2022.

9 [30]  The problems at Credit Suisse in March led to the takeover of the bank by UBS on the initiative of the authorities, with the help of a public guarantee and without using the resolution framework. In addition, the value of certain bonds – so-called AT1 instruments – was written down without shareholders having to bear all the losses first. This is the first time ever that a government has been forced to intervene in a bank defined as globally systemically important to avoid its failure. The measure taken by the Swiss authorities seems appropriate, but the fact that they chose not to use the resolution framework raises the question of whether the global standards for this framework need to be modified in some way. The handling of the AT1 instruments issued by Credit Suisse also raises the question of what role these instruments should play both in a bank failure and more generally in the capital adequacy framework. The resolution of banks in distress is a central part of the regulatory reform that came into place after the global financial crisis. But could it be that the framework is perceived as so complicated that it does not seem useful once the crisis occurs? Here there is every reason to have a continued global discussion about the present framework and how we can keep the benefits while making it more flexible and practical.
China was the first country to enter lockdown and the first to record a V-shaped growth rebound. In other Asian countries, more eﬀective virus containment meant that domestic economic activity was less severely aﬀected than in other parts of the world. https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2021/riding-the-growth-momentum-in-asia  1/11  12/02/2021  "Riding the Growth Momentum in Asia" – Keynote Speech by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director (Markets & Development), …  Quickly restoring production capacity played into Asia’s strong presence in global value chains. Asian merchandise exports held up well, as global consumers spent more on goods while access to services was restricted. Asian exports of medical supplies and electronics expanded. 3. While large swathes of the world are gripped by renewed waves of COVID-19 infections today, eﬀective vaccination programmes and unprecedented policy support are expected to support a strong recovery in the second half of 2021. The World Bank forecasts global growth at 4.0% this year; with growth in East Asia at 5.9%. ASEAN economies are expected to expand by 5.0% in 2021, also surpassing the performance of regions beyond Asia. [3] 4. There are however, still considerable uncertainties on the horizon. These include the course of the pandemic, progress on vaccination, the possibility of governments mistiming the withdrawal of policy support, and the evolution of US-China trade and investment relations. 5.

[4] IMF, October 2020, “World Economic Outlook.” [5] The World Bank [6] Dealogic  https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2021/riding-the-growth-momentum-in-asia  9/11  12/02/2021  "Riding the Growth Momentum in Asia" – Keynote Speech by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director (Markets & Development), …  [7] McKinsey & Company, June 2020, “Asia Wealth Management Post-COVID-19: Adapting and Thriving  in an Uncertain World” [8] They are Singapore (#3, $ Hong Kong (#4, $ Japan (#5, $ [9] MAS 2019 Asset Management Survey [10] The Asian Bond Grant Scheme, which ran from 2017 to 2019, has attracted a diverse pool of Asian  companies to issue bonds in Singapore, tapping multiple currencies including USD, IDR, INR, AUD and SGD etc. The ABG scheme has successful catalysed more first-time bond issuances in Singapore, with a more than doubling of our first-time issuance volume. Average annual volume from first-time issuers has doubled from $ billion (2014-2016) to more than $ billion (2017-2019). [11] The Global-Asia Bond Grant Scheme covers issuers that have (i) global headquarters in Asia; (ii)  business operations or are engaged in projects in Asia; or (iii) the intention to issue Asian local currency denominated bonds. The scheme supports up to 50% of issuance-related expenses for issuances of at least $ subject to a funding cap of $ for rated issuances and $ for unrated issuances. There is a higher funding tier for jumbo-sized bond issuances where they can receive up to $ or $ for rated or unrated issuances respectively.
My remarks today will focus on the vast potential of the Islamic bond market in the economic development process, in its role in ensuring financial stability and its role in promoting greater financial integration in the global financial system. I would also like to take this opportunity to share with you Malaysia's experience in the development of this market. The Malaysian sukuk market has now evolved into one of the world's largest Islamic bond market. Immense role of sukuk market in the economic development The financing requirements for economic development are immense. The bond market is key to meeting these funding needs for both the public and private sectors. This is particularly important for emerging market economies. In the Middle East and in Asia , two of the fastest growing regions in the global economy are taking place following privatisation and implementation of infrastructure projects. Asia alone will be spending an estimated USD1 trillion on infrastructure over the next five years, while infrastructure requirements in the Middle East are estimated to be USD500 billion over the same period. The challenge is to put in place an intermediation system that will channel the surplus savings in both these regions into productive investments. It is in this context that the Islamic capital market, in particular the sukuk market will serve as an important avenue to efficiently mobilise longer term funds to meet these funding requirements.

For a long time, our economy has been facing very important challenges in this area, such as increasing productivity, boosting savings and investment, working on the incorporation of new technologies and developing new productive poles, among others. These are all matters where it is very important for the country to make progress, but which lie beyond the instruments managed by the Central Bank. The Central Bank can only contribute to welfare and growth precisely by stabilizing prices and the cycle, which helps reduce uncertainty and favors a better allocation of resources. Let me note that the efforts to bring down inflation has a clear focus on the welfare of households. Families have seen their purchasing power eroded; with the same amount of money they buy an ever shrinking basket for consumption. It is important to control it, stabilize the economy and offer stable conditions to grow and increase employment while protecting wages from the effects of this phenomenon. 10  In the present circumstances, for inflation to converge to 3% also means boosting our capacity to deal with a more adverse external scenario. Again, we cannot rule out the occurrence of a more adverse external scenario. For the same reason, we must prepare ourselves to address it and mitigate its impacts. A sound economy with no significant imbalances is key to this, as it gives us more policy slack to address adverse scenarios.