samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
So it is reasonable to expect that once a significant minority of firms has offered a return to pay growth that is more normal by historical standards, we can expect the majority to follow. 3. The balance of savings and investment intentions  Let me turn to the balance of savings and investment. Although many believe that the MPC sets interest rates, that is only strictly true for short term rates, and even then only the rates applicable in our monetary and liquidity insurance operations. Long term interest rates are set by the economy, and must ultimately equilibrate the desire to save and the desire to invest. Much of the decline in interest rates over the 30 years prior to the crisis represented large global forces – as evidenced by the tendency of international bond yields to co-move. 4 Demographic effects, for example, saw the proportion of the global population in prime working age increase from 50% to 58%. 5 Those in the workforce tend to save more than those outside it, particularly over a period of increasing life expectancy. The rise of inequality has also had an impact through its tendency to skew income toward those more likely to save. 6 Needless to say, the development of these trends over the coming decades will continue to play an important role in the determination of long term interest rates.

The Stability and Growth Pact and all the efforts of the Eurogroup over the years to maintain a coordinated and disciplined fiscal policy have been vital and should be continued in the future. But in addition to continuing along these lines in the coming decade, efforts should focus on designing and adopting the necessary structural policies. If we observe how these divergences are perceived in the different countries, we can gain insight into the importance of efforts to push through structural reforms. Many in Spain believe that the divergence problems witnessed in the Spanish economy in recent years are to do with the fact that certain euro area countries are lacking in dynamism and therefore have much lower growth potential than we do. And it's true. Spain has a higher degree of privatisation that makes its economy much more dynamic. Also, the weight of public spending in the economy is much lower. Advances in competition in many industries affords higher growth potential for Spain than for other euro area countries. The problem of being in an area with countries with lower growth potential is that when the ECB set its interest rates in the 2000-2004 period, it did so at a level which, though arguably high for these other countries, was very low for Spain. And that entailed higher debt, higher inflation and, therefore, a loss in competitiveness for our country. But look now how such divergences are seen from the other countries.
Therefore, it is not surprising that the systemic problems that emerged in the US sub-prime housing loans in the second half of 2007 and gradually spilled over to other credit markets have given enormous anxiety to policy makers. In this context, central banks have engaged in closer cooperation and information sharing with each other to address these challenges. The recent crisis in financial markets is likely to have significant repercussions over the real economy and the most obvious victim is the economic growth. A marked slowdown in  BIS Review 82/2008  1  developed countries is expected. Part of the current debate is whether developing countries could escape from a sharp slowdown in the industrialized world. Some argue that they can, thanks to progress in macroeconomic stability and structural reforms in recent years. We still do not know whether they are right. Another aspect of globalization is the huge volume of international trade, which has led to considerable convergence in business cycles across countries. Integration of previouslyclosed economies, like China, India and Eastern European, to international markets has led to an economic boom in the world economy, which was mostly anti-inflationary – until most recently. Needless to say, record increases in commodity prices in the last two years have created doubts in our minds about the sustainability of this anti-inflationist growth process in the near future. Dear Guests, We are currently facing significant inflationary pressures on a global scale due to record high increases in commodity prices.

“Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants,” Journal of International Economics, vol. 108(S1), pages 59–75. Rachel, Lukasz & Smith, Thomas D., 2017. “Are Low Real Interest Rates Here to Stay?” International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 1-42. World Bank, 2016. “Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2016: Taking on Inequality”. World Bank Group report. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
The Bank of Albania was given the conventional functions of central banks, such as: monetary policy, currency issuing, foreign exchange market; while the National Commercial Bank, together with other banks, were given the conventional banking functions, such as accepting deposits, extending loans and other banking services. The Laws “On the Bank of Albania” and “On the Albanian banking system” adopted in 1992 constituted the grounds needed for this transformation. It is worth mentioning that one of the fundamental elements of the Law “On the Bank of Albania” of 1992 was the granting of a relatively high degree of independence to the central bank, as a legal, institutional, financial and personal independence. This independence has been increasing constantly throughout these years, not only as a legal and institutional independence, by amendments made to the Law in 1996 -1997 and after the approval of the Constitution, but also as an independence in the real aspect. Under the Law of 1992, the dependence of the Central Bank passed from the Government to the Parliament, being given simultaneously the functions of determining the volume of credit, issuing, banking interest rate, the payment system, etc. At that time, the reform in second-tier banks was focused on three main directions: 1. Introduction of a new regulatory and supervisory framework;  2. Institutional policies in treating the non-performing loans;  3. Plans related to the privatization of state-owned banks.

It comes out of the analysis that the short-term credit has maintained the same growth rate, while a shifting of the mid-term credit to long-term credit is noticed, particularly when the comparison is made with year-end 2004. Banking system assets of the nine-month period of 2006 increased by ALL 71 billion or 14% more than at year-end 2005, maintaining almost the same growth rate with the previous year. The downward trend of the large banks’ contribution to the growth of the system indicates a reduction of the overall banking activity concentration. Meanwhile, the banking system assets performance in years, but particularly in 2005, expressed as a share of GDP, shows increased depth of the banking system intermediation. The ratio under discussion is estimated at about 59.3% for year-end 2005, versus around 52% at end of 2004 and 60.4 % at end of the nine-month period of 2006. Though in 2000, the National Commercial Bank was privatized, the increased weight of the domestic government capital in comparison to 1999 is explained with the growth of the size of the shareholders’ equity of the Savings Bank to ALL 5 billion, from ALL –9.3 billion at end of ’99 (it is evidenced with a negative value because of the accumulated losses of the SB).
Thomas Jordan: The rationale for discontinuing the minimum exchange rate and lowering interest rates Introductory remarks by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the press conference of the Swiss National Bank, Zurich, 15 January 2015. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen Thank you for once again accepting our invitation to this press conference at such short notice. Let me begin by explaining the rationale for discontinuing the minimum exchange rate and lowering interest rates. Afterwards, I shall be happy to answer your questions. Discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has decided to discontinue the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro with immediate effect and to cease foreign currency purchases associated with enforcing it. The minimum exchange rate was introduced during a period of exceptional overvaluation of the Swiss franc and an extremely high level of uncertainty on the financial markets. This exceptional and temporary measure protected the Swiss economy from serious harm. While the Swiss franc is still high, the overvaluation has decreased as a whole since the introduction of the minimum exchange rate. The economy was able to take advantage of this phase to adjust to the new situation. Recently, divergences between the monetary policies of the major currency areas have increased significantly – a trend that is likely to become even more pronounced.

Even if Finansinspektionen’s justification for the mortgage ceiling was to protect consumers, the measure can also be used for macroprudential supervision. From a stability perspective, the credit risks in the banks’ credit portfolios could be reduced if the rule contributes towards reducing the economic vulnerability of households. The loan ceiling may also contribute towards more stable price formation on the housing market, as the rules influence how much money households are willing to put into purchasing housing. If this counteracts excessive price variations on the housing market and the unsustainable accumulation of debt among households, it will also likewise contribute towards reducing the risk of loan losses in the banking system. 12  See, for example Lim, C., et al., (2011), “Macroprudential Policy: What Instruments and How to Use Them? Lessons from Country Experiences”, IMF Working Paper, 11/238. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  A loan ceiling based on income would have largely the same characteristics as one based on the value of housing, but may have certain advantages. If debts are not linked to price movements on the housing markets, this avoids the problem of price increases and indebtedness reciprocally being pushed upwards in a rising spiral. Effectively combating future financial crises will require flexibility An efficient financial system is a prerequisite for a modern economy. A shock leading to the breakdown of any of the financial system’s functions can have major economic costs in the form of sharp falls in GDP and high unemployment.
This effect was expectable but proved to be stronger. The contribution of exchange rate fluctuations and heavy crop to inflation slowdown may decline in future. We took this into account when choosing the scale of key rate reduction. The Bank of Russia maintains a focus on the analysis of inflation trends in the regions. Although most regions are enjoying slower inflation, it still varies considerably. February data suggest that annual inflation in the regions ranged between 1.9 and 6.4%. Differing readings for price growth across regions are explained by a number of factors including households’ capacity to pay, the level of competition, industrial specialisation and the policy of local authorities. Monetary policy 1 / 14  BIS central bankers' speeches  checks overall inflationary pressure; yet, regional differences will persist, albeit, as we foresee, will diminish progressively. Inflation may also vary across households with different incomes. Early last year, these differences became stronger. This year we are witnessing lower inflation almost in all income groups, except for highest income households. Inflation in medium and low income households is approaching the 4% target, which is certainly a positive trend. This lays the groundwork for soundness of households’ savings and incomes. Second, a more sustainable economic recovery does not trigger inflationary pressure. The updated Rosstat data suggest that the downturn in the Russian economy was not so deep in 2015–2016 and the economy saw a recovery earlier than expected.

Under such uncertain circumstances and present risks of inflation we are unable to state with certainty that this move constitutes the start of a recurrent easing cycle, to be continued upon decision at each forthcoming Board meeting. However, we are not ruling this out as a likely possibility, conditional on a sufficiently positive outlook. RIA Novosti’s QUESTION: According to a recent statement issued by the Ministry of Finance, inflation is expected to decrease to 4% as early as in the first half of the year. In any case the Bank of Russia predicts that the target for inflation will be hit by the end of the year. Could you please comment on any risks the Central Bank sees in this potential over-performance? Can the Central Bank have estimated a divergence, of critical importance, from the target in this case? If so, what is the extent of this deviation? Is there any risk that inflation will get stuck above 4%? And are there any risks associated with a rate of inflation of around 3%? Have you made any critical calculations of a twofold estimate? And if not, when do you intend to do so? Thank you. ELVIRA NABIULLINA: Our goal is to ensure that inflation remains around 4%, a target we have always spoken of. In other words, it is impossible to expect that the rate of inflation will work out to be precisely 4% every single day.
There is a solution to these three elements, and this consists in: first, ensuring sound fiscal policies in each and every member state; second, setting responsible macroeconomic policies; and, third, designing and adhering to a far more effective system of surveillance. The ECB stands alongside the citizens of Europe. We understand their concerns about the governance of the euro area because, just like them, we are focused on the medium term. That is why we call for a very ambitious reform of euro area governance – a reform that will address the root causes of the current situation and make it simply impossible to happen again. I also have good news. This good news is that all the efforts to strengthen the economic attribute of our union will be supported by a monetary policy that will ensure price stability or, as you say in German, Geldwertstabilität. As I mentioned, the “Monetary” attribute of EMU refers to the ECB, its mandate and its independence. By now, after almost 12 years, we also have a track record. As you know, the most important issue for a currency is to keep its value. There is one single measure for this, which is the average inflation rate over a medium or long-term horizon. This is how we measure price stability. I will be very precise. The average annual inflation rate in the euro area since the inception of the euro almost 12 years ago has been 1.97%.

Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve issued guidance for the largest firms that outlined five “capabilities” that should be at the top of the list of “to dos”: •  Collateral management: firms should have effective processes for managing, identifying and valuing collateral it receives;  •  Effective management information systems (MIS) around payment, clearing and settlement activities: firms should have a comprehensive understanding of obligations and exposures associated with payment, clearing and settlement activities;  •  Stronger analytics around funding: firms should have the ability to analyze funding sources, uses and risks of each material entity and critical operation, including under stress;  •  MIS by legal entity: firms should have demonstrated MIS capabilities for producing key data on a legal entity basis; and,  •  Arrangements for shared or outsourced services: firms should have robust arrangements in place for the continued provision of shared or outsourced services needed to maintain critical operations. While there are many other areas that supervisors/regulators and legislators need to continue to work on to make cross-border resolution a reality, these five areas are ones that we have highlighted for near-term focus by firms. Another important element to preventing the failure of a firm is ensuring that firms can respond to any weakness by having recovery plans that are implemented well before resolution becomes necessary.
We need to ensure that no financial institution is “too big to fail.” This means we need Congress to enact a resolution mechanism that allows large, complex financial firms to be wound down smoothly, without the need for extraordinary interventions. In addition, we need to take steps to make the financial system as a whole more resilient and robust. This requires many steps – some already in train – including higher capital requirements for large banks, bigger liquidity buffers, and changes to ensure that compensation practices are consistent with safety and soundness and financial stability. It’s a long list – there is no single silver bullet – and it will take time, but the regulatory community and the political leadership will fail to meet our shared responsibility as stewards if we do not implement the necessary reforms in a timely and effective manner. Outlook for the recovery and risks from the financial sector The U.S. economy has begun to recover. Growth in the second half of 2009 was a bit stronger than expected and the pace of layoffs has diminished. We currently expect that the economy will keep expanding, but at a somewhat slower growth rate than during the second half of 2009 as the temporary boost from the inventory cycle fades and the effects of the stimulus bill gradually weaken. With modest growth, we expect price pressures to remain well contained. Nonetheless, it’s far too early to pop the champagne corks.

Then I will look at monetary and financial conditions and the SNB’s monetary policy. In the third quarter of 2012, global economic growth remained weak, while the volume of international foreign trade actually declined. A mild recession persisted in the euro area, and Japan recorded strongly negative growth figures. In the US, growth was supported by private consumption as well as the improvement in residential construction investment. The situation varied in the emerging economies. In some countries, there was scarcely any improvement in economic momentum, while in others – such as China – a supportive economic policy led to some consolidation. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  We still expect that the global economy as a whole will gradually recover. However, we have adjusted our forecast for 2013 slightly down from the last monetary policy assessment. This revision mainly affects the short-term outlook for the euro area. We expect that the euro area will only emerge from the recession during the course of 2013. In the US, the moderate recovery is likely to continue, partly as a result of the favourable developments in residential construction. In the emerging economies, growth should continue to gain momentum. The downside risks for the global economy remain high. The crisis in the euro area continues to weigh on the economic outlook. In September, the ECB initiated a new securities purchasing programme, Outright Monetary Transactions.
These include increasing the public awareness on the importance of financial inclusion, assisting governments in the design of regulatory systems that facilitate the creation of financial services for the poor, encouraging the of use of holistic measures to gauge the progress of financial inclusion, collecting and disseminating best practices, collaborating with the private sector to leverage on the talent and technology to further advance financial inclusion and to promote research that will galvanise new initiatives. In Malaysia, financial inclusion is a high priority in our national agenda. Since the establishment of the Central Bank, there has been a conscious policy to have an extensive commercial banking branch network across the country, to ensure the outreach, in particular, to cover the non-urban areas. Malaysia now has 10.2 branches for every 100,000 individuals as opposed to the global median of 8.4 branches for every 100,000 individuals. In Malaysia, more than 80% of the population also have some form of savings account. This has also contributed to the financialisation of savings in the country. Deposits as a percentage of gross domestic product is 180%. This means that savings is mobilised including from small savers into the formal financial system. This allows the savings to be channelled to productive economic activity. To further drive the provision of basic financial services to the underserved, the National Savings Bank in Malaysia has been mandated to enhance the outreach of deposit services and micro-financing.

Central banks have an additional stake in this game. Cash is one of our main products and an increased supply of services from non-banks is likely to reduce its usage. On the one hand, central bank should embrace the development from an efficiency point of view. On the other, a rapid decrease in the use of cash is not without problems. This is only a few of the aspects that may be debated in the second session. The third topic is the future and we all want to know what it will look like. Will the banks be reduced to mere suppliers of infrastructure and account holding services while other actors, the non-banks, have most of the end-user relation-ship? Or will the banks win by knock-out? Will the non-banks become banks over time as their activity expands? Will payment services be delivered to us by Apple? Google? Facebook? Alibaba? What about Bitcoin and its peers? Will we simply have payment services provided by an anonymous network? In addition to having all these kinds of issue debated among representatives for market actors and authorities, we will also have the pleasure of listening to the academic perspective of Professor Charles M. Kahn from the University of Illinois. I’m really looking forward to learning more about all these topics today. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3