samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Turning to the external sector, which remains our main source of growth, the adjustment of relative costs and prices under way in the Spanish economy, and the subsequent improvements in competitiveness, is allowing sales abroad to grow at a higher rate than that of the markets to which we export. Even if there is a rise in imports in the remainder of the year, this will provide for a strong correction of the current account balance, which will run a significant surplus this year of around 2% of GDP. In addition to achieving this improvement in competitiveness, households, firms and financial institutions are deleveraging and the Spanish economy is undertaking major reforms, furthering the fiscal consolidation drive, which must in any case continue through to 2015 but which will evidently prove easier if the recovery firms. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Before moving to the second part of my address, and to conclude my comments on developments in activity, I should like to refer to the 2012 results of our Central Balance Sheet Data Office, and its preliminary results for 2013, which have been published this morning. The 2012 figures illustrate the severity of the crisis that year. In 2012, Gross Value Added fell 4.5%, 3 pp more than in 2011, and the Net Profit for the year was practically zero. For 2013, however, the estimate provided by the quarterly information from the Central Balance Sheet Data Office points to a turnaround in activity and in business profits.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Impact of the global crisis on Switzerland Introductory remarks by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Schweizerisch-Deutscher Wirtschaftsclub, Frankfurt am Main, 2 March 2009. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  What started as a financial crisis has now become a global economic crisis. Although the Swiss economy was in a very sound state before the crisis set in, Switzerland’s standing as a financial centre, its real economy and its public finances have all been strongly affected by the global turmoil. Recovery will depend largely on the development of the US economy. Despite having reached worldwide proportions by now, the crisis was not triggered by globalisation itself. Rather, it is the result of a lack of discipline in the industrialised nations. Monetary policy today must contribute to the stabilisation of the financial system and the real economy without losing sight of its principal task, which is to maintain price stability. BIS Review 24/2009  1
14.10.2020  Risks and vulnerabilities in the corporate sector as a result of the COVID-19 crisis: the experience of Spain 5th annual EU and US Perspectives: How to Spend it/ SUERF (The European Money and Finance Forum) Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Ladies and gentlemen, I wish you a good morning or good afternoon, depending on your time zone. First of all, let me thank the organisers for their kind invitation to participate in this conference. My presentation will focus on the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the risks and vulnerabilities of non-financial corporate sector, the role played by policies in tackling these risks and the main challenges ahead. I will illustrate these vulnerabilities and challenges focusing on the Spanish case. This discussion is very relevant since the activity of the corporate sector has been particularly hit by the crisis and indeed many of the policy measures applied have focused on supporting the viability of firms which, despite being solvent, have seen their liquidity position deteriorate as a consequence of the crisis. The swift implementation of these policies is being and will continue to be crucial to prevent the temporary shock of the pandemic turning into the closure of many firms and therefore into a permanent loss of productive capacity. However, these policies have not been able to avoid an increase in the indebtedness of many firms since the beginning of the crisis.

7  Stein (2013) discusses liquidity regulation through price vs. quantities as a problem of social choice à la Ronald Coase, drawing on the classical analysis by Weitzman (1974). Along these lines, if HQLA-eligible assets are scarce, then the HQLA premium is likely to be both high and volatile and a price-based mechanism can be more relevant than regulating quantities through the LCR. See J. Stein (2013), “Liquidity Regulation and Central Banking”, speech at the “Finding the Right Balance” 2013 Credit Markets Symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Charlotte, North Carolina, April 19, and M. Weitzman (1974), “Prices vs. Quantities”, Review of Economic Studies, vol. 41 (October), pp. 477–91. 8  Recent papers considering effects of government bail-outs on banks’ maturity mismatch and financial stability include E. Farhi and J. Tirole, “Collective moral hazard, maturity mismatch, and systemic bailouts”, American Economic Review 102, 2012, and T. Keister, “Bailouts and Financial Fragility”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 473, 2010. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Liquidity regulation and monetary policy implementation Incentives on the asset side of banks’ balance sheet How will liquidity regulations and monetary policy implementation interact in normal times? In my view, the interaction is expected to be complex and liquidity regulation may require adjustments to central banks’ operational frameworks. Although the central bank collateral framework received more limited attention in the recent academic literature than collateral used in private transactions,9 it is one of the most complex and economically significant elements of monetary policy implementation.
At conferences like these, we tend to focus on the cost of misconduct. But, getting rid of scandals should not be the sole reason for changing culture.3 The public expects more from the financial sector than a lack of another financial crisis or scandal. The industry would do well to listen to Baroness Onora O’Neill: Think about your purpose.4 What are you for? Surely, no one would answer that question by saying, “We’re for a lack of misconduct.” Rather, the financial services industry should support a well-functioning, growing economy, reflecting the interests of all its stakeholders. Banking in particular should provide critical intermediation services—the economic infrastructure that allows businesses to grow, families to save and invest, and standards of living to improve over generations for as broad a cross section of people as possible. When society prospers, the financial services industry prospers, too. Creating a culture that encourages and rewards diversity of thought, perspective, and experience is one means by which the industry can both do good and do well at the same time. Thank you for your kind attention. 1 See Preet Bharara, Criminal Accountability and Culture, Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s  Conference: Reforming Culture and Behavior in the Financial Services Industry: Expanding the Dialogue, Oct. 20, 2016. 2 In re Wells Fargo, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Administrative Proceeding 2016-CFPB-0015 (Sept. 8,  2016) (Consent Order) ¶¶ 8-9.

Before we make any decisions in this regard, we will continue implementing monetary policy in line with our current goals and approaches covered in the draft Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2022–2024. 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  The results of the Review will be taken into account when preparing the Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2023–2025. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
This reform agenda is very ambitious and time-wise rather tight, but before describing the measures under discussion, let me first briefly introduce the main actors in this area. The G20 provides the political and strategic impetus for the reforms, with the Financial Stability Board (FSB) playing an important role in the policy coordination. Various committees and working groups, of which the most prominent is the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, are charged with reviewing specific international standards. As regards the reform agenda, the most important issues are the following:   the adoption of high-quality capital and liquidity standards for banks,    measures to reduce the financial system’s procyclicality,    the introduction of a regulatory framework for systemically important financial institutions,    the regulation of credit rating agencies and hedge funds, improving OTC derivatives markets, and    finally, sound compensation practices that support financial stability. These issues are comprehensively addressed by the Basel Committee’s reform package that aims to strengthening the banking sector’s resilience and represents a cornerstone of the response to the crisis. The package, which was released at the end of last year for consultation, aims at improving the quality and consistency of bank capital. It also considers the introduction of a non-risk-based leverage ratio as a supplementary capital measure. This leverage ratio is expected to curb excessive balance sheet growth and to set a floor for the Basel II capital requirements.

This hybrid model for payments has lasted for many decades and it is the current  payment system we are all used to. And now ... what led central banks to reconsider this model is to get on the other side of your digital wallet, become your counterparty and offer you a new venue to access your money and a new form of public money – the CBDC. The motives are crucial here. But the motives differ from one country to another. MOTIVES Some central banks do it for inclusion, to attract people to the financial system, and to allow them to reap the benefits of legal protection - being protected and having access to financial services for everyone and from different places. Examples are developing economies like India or Nigeria. The others do it because of geographical reasons, or better to say, where geography is an obstacle for physical banking, such is the case for dispersed islands in the Bahamas and its cash-management problems. Transferring cash from one island to another is too expensive, and the common digital payment platform for citizens seemed like a viable solution. There are other reasons, such as serving as a backup option in case other payment solutions fail. For example, it is the case with Eastern Caribbean CBDC, which purports to support payments in the areas struck by volcanic eruptions in 2021. The others, like China, did it because of dominant technological platforms which exploited the network effects to stifle competition.
Rather, as with the other issues I have discussed, I view this development as limiting the upside risk to that forecast. Despite the limiting factors discussed above, the pace of growth envisioned in the consensus forecast implies that overall labor market conditions will continue to improve. But there is a great deal of uncertainty about the resulting path of the unemployment rate, with some forecasters expecting a fairly steep decline to around 5 percent by the end of 2015, while others anticipate a much more gradual decline. In addition to how strong output grows, the ultimate path of the unemployment rate will also depend on the behavior of productivity growth and the labor force participation rate. The labor force participation rate has declined a great deal since 2007, the previous cyclical peak, due to a combination of demographic factors and protracted cyclical weakness in labor demand. The behavior of the participation rate and its likely future path is an issue we continue to monitor and study intently. While I still believe that the participation rate could move back up again as the demand for labor strengthens, I am less confident about this than earlier as the downward trend in participation rates has persisted even as the labor market has improved. What I can say with greater certainty is that there still is a significant underutilization of labor market resources. I come to this conclusion after assessing many labor market indicators, not just the level of the unemployment rate.

Of course, RPI has a long history of developing cutting edge technologies and fostering startup companies. RPI’s Emerging Ventures Ecosystem initiative provides an excellent example 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  of how a leading university can help local firms access the knowledge and intellectual property provided by its faculty and students. These types of collaborations are a key ingredient to improving the competitiveness of local businesses and increasing the relevance of the universities to the communities they serve. We should take every opportunity to exploit these partnerships as much as possible to unleash their full potential. The strong foundation that has already been built has clearly been successful, and I expect these partnerships will support the region’s economic vitality going forward. College graduates finding jobs Finally, I know that many of you here today are students, and you may be concerned about your ability to find a good job upon graduation. There is no doubt that this is a difficult time to be graduating from college and starting your career. While finding a job has gotten a bit easier over the past few years, finding a good job can still be a challenge. Indeed, research we’ve conducted at the New York Fed finds that underemployment among recent college graduates has continued to climb even as the unemployment rate has fallen. This is a troubling trend, and one we are actively trying to better understand.
Since 1997, however, inflation expectations having shifted back inwards, restoring the Phillips curve to something closer to its position prior to 1970.5 Chart 11: The wage Phillips curve under different policy regimes in the UK  Chart 10: A long run estimate of the wage Phillips curve in the UK  1856-2014  1856-1970 1970-1997 1997-2014  Wage inflation 30  Wage inflation 30  20  20  10  10  0 0 -10 -10 -20 0  5 10 15 20 Unemployment rate (lagged 1yr)  Sources: Crafts and Mills (1994), Feinstein (1972) and ONS. Notes: Unemployment is measured here by the claimant count, and is lagged by one year. For more information on the long-run data used to construct this index, see Hills et al (2010, 2015). -20 0  5 10 15 Unemployment rate (lagged 1yr)  20  Sources: See footnote to Chart 10. If we look more closely at the most recent period, a second feature stands out (Chart 12). UK wage growth has been puzzlingly weak over the past few years, lying below the Phillips curve estimated since 1997. While UK unemployment has fallen more than 2 percentage points since 2013, wage growth has remained in the range 1–2% per year. This is, to a degree, a global phenomenon. For example, the US Phillips curve also shifted inward after the Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s (Chart 13).

If deregulation is to improve competition and efficiency, banks must be free to adjust their pricing not just on interest rates but  BIS Review 3/2001  1  also on fees and charges. I have absolutely no argument with this. However, I very much hope that banks will display some sensitivity on this, and will bear in mind the public interest. They should also ensure that their pricing is transparent, and that customers have good notice of any changes. 7. In addition to interest rate deregulation, there are a number of other market reform measures originating from the consultancy report published a year or so ago which are still being progressed. For example, later this year we will consider whether there should be some further relaxation of the restriction on the opening of branches by foreign banks which have entered the market since 1978. We also plan to review whether the three-tier system of authorisation might be reduced to two tiers, although we do not plan to visit this issue until next year – i.e. 2002 - and have quite an open mind on this. This is rather later than we originally intended. But it reflects the fact that we believe that the present system is working reasonably well and that there is no pressing need to change.
The trigger for the correction can vary – in the early 89–92 episode it was a sharp rise in interest rates as the UK sought to remain in the Exchange Rate Mechanism; in 2007–9 it was a sharp tightening in credit conditions amid a collapse in confidence in an over-levered banking system – but, unfortunately, there are more precedents in UK for periods of a rapidly growing housing market to end in this way. The question for the Financial Policy Committee, therefore, is whether the sustained momentum we are seeing in the housing market will continue and will lead to unsustainable growth in household indebtedness, undermining the resilience of the system. Our first thought must be to the direct exposure of the financial system to the housing market and its resilience to a major housing shock. Mortgage lending amounts to two-thirds of UK bank and building societies’ UK lending. Financial institutions are better placed now than they were before the financial crisis. The reinforcement of underwriting standards that I mentioned earlier, protects both borrowers from taking on unaffordable mortgages and lenders from bad debts. Since 2008, the amount of capital in the system has increased by £ with capital requirements against UK residential mortgages broadly trebling. We now have, for the first time, a new international liquidity standard, which should help to prevent long-term mortgage debt being funded from unstable short-term wholesale sources; since 2008, banks’ liquid assets have broadly trebled.

And these are all important elements in achieving our objectives. 3. And talking about objectives, this is definitely something worth reiterating and reinforcing at the start of this conference. This is because there’s always a danger, when we’re up to our neck in discussions around compliance, policy developments and technology, so much so that we may tend to forget what AML is all about basically. So let’s be clear about this upfront. ML and TF are crimes. And they facilitate other crimes - fraud, tax evasion, trafficking in drugs and people, and of course, terrorism. These crimes have economic and social effects that are far-reaching and often very nasty ones. They also generate financial flows – in fact significant financial flows - that divert resources away from economically and socially-productive uses. But more importantly, people get hurt. Victims, who are often from the more vulnerable segments in our societies, have their life savings stolen by fraudsters, our youth are damaged by drugs, or, in the case of terrorism, we see terrible acts of violence which kill and injure indiscriminately. Of course, investigating and prosecuting these crimes is the job of law enforcement agencies. But financial institutions do have a key role to play in helping to stop bad people doing bad things, and getting away with the proceeds from doing such bad things. This is the BASIC OBJECTIVE that one should remember next time when you are working on the details of CDD policy or calibrating the settings on your transaction monitoring and sanctions screening systems.
(2) Percentage of respondents who believe that inflation will rise "much" in the next twelve months. (3) Number above (below) 50 points denotes higher (lower) costs three month ahead. Fuentes: Adimark, Banco Central de Chile y Universidad Adolfo Ibañez/Icare. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Table 1 Economic growth and current account (annual change, percent) 2009  2010  2011 ( f )  GDP National income  -1.7 -1.9  5.2 15.7  6.0 - 7.0 6.9  Domestic demand Domestic demand (w/o inventory change) Gross fixed capital formation T otal consumption Goods and services exports Goods and services imports  -5.9 -2.9 -15.9 1.9 -6.4 -14.6  16.4 11.5 18.8 9.3 1.9 29.5  8.5 9.2 11.9 8.3 7.1 11.0  1.6  1.9  0.0  2012 (f) IPoM IPoM jun. mar. 11 11  CF may. 11  Current account (percent of GDP) (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile. Table 2  World growth  (annual change, percent) Average 00-08  2009  2010 (e)  2011 (f) IPoM IPoM jun. mar. 11 11  CF may.

At present, there are few indications of any unusually pronounced imbalances between the real exchange rates of the currencies of the large economic blocs. Looking at their development, it becomes apparent that they are all close to their long-term averages (cf. Graph 1). This suggests that the US current account deficit is not primarily a product of exchange rate distortions. It is mainly due to a comparatively high growth momentum and a low savings rate in the US. Yields in the capital markets continued to fall. While this decline was weakest in the US, yields in continental Europe hit historical lows. In Switzerland, for instance, the yields on ten-year Swiss Confederation bonds reached an all-time low of less than 2%. The extraordinarily low capital market yields reflect the market’s low inflation expectations. During recent months, certain concerns about economic growth have triggered a further decline in yields. Both strong demand for long-term debt securities in industrialised countries (driven by demographic factors) and high savings rates in the emerging markets – particularly in China – have probably also contributed to the generally low level of interest rates. While 2004 was characterised by a steady and uniform decline in credit risk premiums in the different debtor categories, the past six months saw a less even trend in the credit risk premiums of individual bonds. In the corporate bonds area, the market’s attention focused on the two major US automakers.