samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  Figure 4 Real annual contribution to GFCF (*) (percentage points) 16 16  1616  Mining  12 12  1212  88  88  Other  44  Non-mining 4 4  00  00  -4-4  -4-4  Housing  -8-8  -8-8  -12 -12  -12 -12  -16 -16  -16 -16  09 09  10 10  1111  1212  13 13  14 14  15 16 (f) 15 (e) (e) 16 (f)  17 17(f)(f)  (*) 2015 mining investment is etimated using information from listed companies (FECU). Housing investment uses data from the Chilean Chamber of Construction and National Accounts by institutional sector. Other investment calculated residually. For 2016, forecasting models of the Central Bank and other sectoral sources are used, such as the Capital Goods Corporation's surveys and investment plans. (e) Estimate. (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

Beyond this, also banks’ management bodies – both in their managerial and supervisory function – have an impact on banks’ governance, performance and sustainability. I will now first focus on this  other dimension of governance: the role and composition of banks’ boards. Role and composition of banks’ boards Banks’ management bodies have an array of important responsibilities. They set the bank’s risk appetite and ensure that it is adhered to at every level of the institution. They ensure that any material risks to which the bank is, or could be, exposed are identified, monitored and mitigated. And they are responsible for communicating the bank’s strategic objectives, risk appetite and values, not only to external stakeholders through transparent disclosures, but also internally within the bank. In particular, management bodies play a key role in steering the strategic course of a bank and setting it on the path towards sustainable long-term objectives. Especially in times of crisis, a well-governed bank, with a clear understanding of its main risks and core revenue sources, is likely to adapt more quickly and perform better. First with the pandemic and now with the war in Ukraine, but also in the face of the climate and environmental crises, it is important that banks and their boards have an active strategy to tackle the challenges arising from events that can have a significant economic impact. As for the composition of banks’ boards, and given their importance, the ECB pays particular attention to assessing their collective suitability, diversity and effective functioning.
Monetary policy cannot respond to temporary upswings in inflation that can be expected to subside quickly, as monetary policy acts with a time lag. Raising the interest rate to counteract temporary inflationary impulses could cause unnecessary costs. And here I mean costs in the form of production and employment falling too much. However, monetary policy should react to price impulses that would otherwise risk having lasting effects on inflation. As I have mentioned earlier, monetary policy both in Sweden and abroad is facing a severe challenge. On the one hand, the fact that oil and food prices have recently shown a rapid upturn, both in the world market and in Sweden, means that inflationary pressures have increased substantially. This implies that the interest rate should be raised. On the other hand, our most recent growth forecasts indicate that international growth will be weaker, or at least in the United States and the euro area. There is a risk that this will also subdue growth in the rest of the world. In addition, the upswing in oil and food prices risks further dampening world growth. Domestic demand is a strong driving force for growth in many developing countries and it may be weakened by the large rises in food prices. But US growth is also highly dependent on domestic consumption, which can be negatively affected by the high oil price. All of these factors would instead indicate that the interest rate should be cut. 2  International perspective, no. 15 2008, LRF, the Federation of Swedish Farmers.

Their view of the Swedish economy has continued to deteriorate and they have also become gloomier with regard to their own economy. At the same time, households’ inflation expectations one year ahead have risen significantly. However, it can also be noted that households perceive the current inflation rate to be much higher than it actually is. Prior to our next monetary policy meeting we will receive measures of inflation expectations among other groups which must also be analysed (Prospera). The new National Accounts for the first quarter that were published earlier today show that growth in the first quarter was weaker than we had expected. They also show that labour productivity increased slightly in the first quarter of this year, after having fallen for most of 2007. We will be closely analysing what the new GDP statistics otherwise entail for our assessments prior to our next meeting in July. Preliminary statistics indicate a lower rate of wage increase than we had estimated – both for blue-collar and white-collar workers – during the first months of this year. One possible reason for this is the composition effects in the wage statistics. If, for example, new groups are being employed at low entry wages to a greater extent than before, then the average rate of wage increase will be lower. But so far there have not been any signs that the rate of wage increase has accelerated. Of course, this is something we are monitoring closely. Inflation is still high, just as I said before.
This was judged to be especially important at a time when we wanted to quickly generate public confidence in the new monetary policy regime. It was also considered reasonable to attempt to stabilise the value of money in terms of a basket of goods that had great significance for the average person. Additional advantages that are usually put forward are that the CPI is published regularly and comparatively often, and that CPI inflation is normally not revised. Looking back on the ten years or so that have passed since the introduction of inflation targeting, we can conclude that the CPI has worked relatively well as a target variable. When the target was adopted it was probably considered by many to be unrealistic. But during these years inflation has averaged close to 2 per cent. The credibility of the target is also high today, judging by the inflation expectations of households and other economic agents. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that we, through the new policy with a target for the rate of increase in the CPI as an anchor, coupled with a successful consolidation of the government finances, have essentially succeeded in achieving what we had hoped for. Sweden has gone from being a high-inflation economy, characterised by recurring cost crises and unstable economic developments, to being an economy with low, relatively stable rises in prices and wages, where the risk of periods of overheating and subsequent recessions has been reduced considerably.

The HKMA has now decided that Participating AIs can include two more types of RMB assets, namely “RMB sovereign bonds issued in Hong Kong by the Ministry of Finance of China” and “RMB bond investment through the Mainland interbank bond market”, in the calculation of this limit. The above two relaxations take effect today. I believe they will help expand the scope of development for offshore RMB business in Hong Kong and provide banks with a greater flexibility in RMB asset management, which will be conducive to further development of the market. Third, the HKMA has imposed some restrictive arrangements on the inclusion of RMB assets as liquid assets in calculating the statutory liquidity ratio of AIs. As the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong becomes more mature, I believe there is room for suitably relaxing these restrictions. Since the adjustments to be made in the calculation are more complicated and technical, we shall announce the details later. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1
***  10  Figure 1 GDP growth (real annual change, percent)  6  6  4  4 Total  2  2  Non-mining  0  0  -2  -2 14  15  16  17  18  Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 2 Manufacturing output index  Private salaried hours worked (*)  (annual change, percent)  (seasonally-adjusted levels, weekly average)  12  12  43  45  8  8  42  44  4  4  41  0  0  40  Habitual (right axis)  43 42  Effectivas -4  -4  39  41  -8  -8  38  40  14  15  16  17  18  10  12  (*) Black dashed lines show annual centered moving average of respective series. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE).

The final decision on the design concept to be implemented was made on the basis of the revised concepts and the criteria laid down in the Competition Rules. In the Revision Phase each of the three teams has gone into depth of research and development, reaching a level of design for a new premises which would be suitable for the ECB and could be realistically constructed. I would like to thank them for their work and have great respect for what they have created. Each design proposal is unique in its own way. As we will, of course, only build one design, we, my colleagues from the Governing Council and myself, had then the difficult/challenging task to choose one of the revised design proposals. BIS Review 5/2005  1  We had then great pleasure to confirm the Jury’s proposal and to announce Coop Himmelb(l)au as the winning architect of the international urban planning and architectural design competition for the new ECB premises. I would like to ask now Mr. Papademos, as he was also the Chairperson of the international jury of the competition, to present the main elements of the Governing Council decision for the chosen design of Coop Himmelb(l)au.. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, The Governing Council’s decision on the winning design concluded the international urban planning and architectural design competition for the ECB’s new premises. This means that a major step towards building a new, permanent home for the ECB here in Frankfurt has been completed.
European governments have begun to take steps towards fiscal consolidation, and must convince markets that these steps are credible. Unfortunately, the private sector is not ready to take over the slack in public demand. Private sector debt-to-GDP ratios exceed 250% in the G3 economies. In the United States, where the household debt-to-disposable income ratio reached an unprecedented 135% in 2008, deleveraging is already underway with the recovery in private consumption well below historical rebounds. While Eurozone households are less leveraged than US households, disposable income is likely to grow more slowly in the Eurozone and hence be a bigger drag on consumption. A third source of deleveraging is the banking system. Banks in the Eurozone have to strengthen their capital adequacy position to meet new regulatory requirements as well as buffer against potential losses on their sovereign debt holdings. With uncertain prospects for raising fresh capital in equity markets and facing funding shortages in wholesale markets, some of them are looking to scale back their risk-weighted assets. The resultant crunch in credit could further exacerbate the slowdown in the economy. With governments, households, and banks all having to deleverage at the same time, we are looking at a prolonged period of sub-par growth in the advanced economies. In many advanced countries, debt-to-GDP ratios are not expected to stabilise until 2015 to 2020. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Asia: neither decoupled nor derailed What does deleveraging in the G3 mean for Asia? Asia is not immune to developments in America or Europe.

Ravi Menon: Asia – no room for complacency Keynote address by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Paris Europlace Financial Forum, Singapore, 30 November 2011. *  *  *  Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of Banque de France, Distinguished guests, Ladies and gentlemen, Good morning. For those of you who are coming from abroad, a warm welcome to Singapore. Deleveraging out of a debt overhang Molière, a French playwright considered to be one of the greatest masters of comedy, once offered this sobering thought: “Debts are like children; begot with pleasure and brought forth in pain”. Today, the pain he described is palpitating throughout the world and keeping many leaders in government, business, and finance awake at night. The advanced economies are awash in debt. Governments, households, and banks must reduce leverage to restore economic and financial sustainability. But history tells us that deleveraging, while necessary, leads to a prolonged period of slower growth punctuated by increased financial market volatility. The gross government debt-to-GDP ratio is 80% in the UK and in the Eurozone, 100% in the United States, and 230% in Japan. Sovereign debt in aggregate is today at levels not seen since the Second World War. Financial markets, which had hitherto tolerated the build-up in debt, have turned merciless against the Eurozone economies, driving up sovereign spreads and dragging down the ratings of those who hold sovereign paper.
In recent months, Malta’s HICP inflation may have been biased upwards because of methodological changes related to the measurement of tourist accommodation. Meanwhile the RPI, which is unaffected by accommodation prices, stood at 2.9%. It is the RPI that determines with a lag the COLA increase. The core RPI inflation rate, which is a good gauge of persistent inflation, stood at 2.0%. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  On the other hand, a number of labour market indicators remain positive. As seen in Chart 8, the most recent LFS unemployment rate is 6.5%, the same as it was on average in 2007, prior to the euro area crisis. In fact, Malta’s unemployment rate is at the lower end of national unemployment rates across the euro area. Meanwhile the latest registered unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, in June. Malta has avoided the two essential sources of the Euro area crisis: the deficit ratio has been moving in the right direction while the banking model followed by the core domestic banks remained prudent. In Malta, the core banks generally rely on traditional, domestic sources of funds, specifically retail deposits. Malta’s banks remained largely unaffected by the euro area crisis, averting the need for any government assistance and avoided what in other countries became a major source of fiscal overruns and distress. Malta must position itself in a way that builds on the strengths of the economy and minimises its vulnerabilities.

David Bailey: Operational resilience - next steps on the Prudential Regulation Authority‘s supervisory roadmap Speech (virtual) by Mr David Bailey, Executive Director for International Banks Supervision of the Bank of England, at the UK Finance Webinar “Operational Resilience: Beyond", 28 April 2022. * * *  Introduction Good morning everyone and I’d like to thank my colleagues at UK Finance for inviting me to speak today, the first opportunity I have had to speak at a UK Finance event since I took up my post as Executive Director for UK Deposit Takers Supervision at the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) last September. Given that, I’m going to focus on one of our highest supervisory priorities at the moment, Operational Resilience (Op Res). It is a particularly timely moment to be discussing the topic as it has been just over 12 months since our Op Res policy was published. Since then firms have been on a journey towards the end of March deadline that recently passed to identify their Important Business Services (IBS), set impact tolerances, and start mapping and testing to ensure they can remain within those impact tolerances. From our initial Discussion Paper in July 2018, through the follow up to our Consultation Paper in December 20191, and the close and collaborative work on implementation last year, I’d like to thank UK Finance and its members for their open engagement on this policy.
Instead, it appears that the consensus on wage differentials has been weakened at the same time that opening of the labour market vis-à-vis abroad has put pressure on wage differentials – in some cases, in the direction opposite to that demanded by labour market organisations. As Monetary Policy Committee member Gylfi Zoëga pointed out recently, the greater the sense of cohesion about wage distribution in society, the lower the unemployment rate that is consistent with low and stable inflation. Conversely, the weaker that sense of cohesion, the less individual worker groups will be willing to participate in creating the public good that is price stability, and the higher the equilibrium unemployment rate will have to be. This theory is based partly on the work of Ezio Tarantelli, one of Italy’s leading economists in the second half of the twentieth century, which shows us that our experience is far from unique. If the theory applies to the current situation in Iceland – and a number of factors indicate that it does – increased cohesion in this sense could create the conditions for lower unemployment and lower interest rates, but without losing control of inflation. Whatever the reason, this situation gives rise to the risk of an outcome that is worse for society as a whole, although some groups may gain at others’ expense. In other words, in this situation as in so many others, a cooperative solution is usually better for the whole than a conflict solution.

Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Pilot platform for cross-border investment and settlement of debt securities Remarks by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the press conference for the launch of the pilot platform for cross-border investment and settlement of debt securities, jointly with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Euroclear Bank, Hong Kong, 13 March 2012. *  *  *  The world as we know is changing. Many aspects of how the global financial landscape will change have been discussed. One key area of focus has been the uneven growth momentum across the world, which is expected to persist for some time, and this development will have an impact on the trends and direction of the flows of trade and capital across the world. In essence, the nature of trade and capital flows will be significantly different from what we have experienced in the past decades; gross capital flows from across the globe between the east and the west, the north and the south, will be larger in size and more robust, going forward. These developments may pose risk in particular, to open economies like Malaysia and Hong Kong. A key safeguard to manage the risks that may arise from this transformation would be by strengthening our financial systems, to further develop the capital markets and to strengthen the regulatory and supervisory frameworks. In the Asian region, accentuating this global transformation are the rapid regional economic and financial integration and the expansion of domestic demand.
As a compromise, the legal status of the new central bank was situated somewhere between that of a public and a private sector institution and it was given two head offices, one in Berne and one in Zurich. From the beginning, it thus occupied a special place in Switzerland’s political landscape. This special status has hardly changed over the years. In the 1930s, when devaluations and the abandonment of the gold standard often resulted in tighter government controls over central banks, the National Bank Act remained unchanged. Likewise, at the end of the Second World War, when many central banks were nationalised, the SNB remained a stock company open to private shareholders, and it has maintained this status to this day. Since 1973, following the abolition of fixed exchange rates and the introduction of an autonomous monetary policy, the circumstances under which this principle of independence is implemented have changed progressively. A growing need for transparency vis-à-vis the public and the authorities has emerged. This is why we have developed a strategy of active communication, and our relationship with the federal authorities has been gradually institutionalised. Nowadays, transparency and accountability have become principles of good governance for all independent central banks. In Switzerland, the revised National Bank Act of 2004 obliges the SNB to present an annual accountability report on the execution of its mandate to parliament. Application of rules Independence is not merely a theoretical concept, it must be lived constantly.

The global economic recovery might also be delayed reaching the region, increasing the likelihood that the crisis may cause more persistent economic effects. Despite this difficult situation, remittances have proven pandemic-proof1 and have behaved countercyclically in most of the region’s countries, assuming a more important role as a source of external financing. This subject is crucial to Spain, since it is the second-ranked issuer country of remittances to Latin America. Some of the topics we will address today (such as the growing importance of digital money remittances, the role of fiscal stimulus measures in the resilience of remittances and the function of the informal economy) are key to understanding the behaviour of the flow of remittances in this crisis. Undoubtedly, today’s event will allow us to better understand these developments and – I hope – 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  to draw some useful conclusions on how to tackle them from the central bank standpoint. Thank you for your attention. Remittances barely fell by 1.6% in 2020, compared with their 4.8% decline during the 2008 financial crisis. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Still as a student at the Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Sciences at the Warsaw University, back in the late 1980s, I assisted in the works on a model of the Polish economy carried out at the Faculty of Economic Sciences. Soon afterwards, as a result of the fundamental changes in the structure of the Polish economy, consisting in liberalisation of prices and opening to foreign trade, the model became useless as a tool of macroeconomic analysis. Nowadays, the changes observed in the Polish economy are neither so rapid nor radical any more. However, intensification of changes in the global economy, reported in the recent years, must have brought in many economic relations other than those known so far. There have been many structural changes whose force, permanence and significance cannot be assessed on an ongoing basis with the use of econometric models. In principle, such an assessment is feasible only after a few years, which - from 1 the point of view of pursuing an effective monetary policy - is too long a period . This is why in such periods the so-called soft data and information, obtained directly from entrepreneurs, gain particular significance. There are numerous examples of such changes taking place in many countries.

Caleb M Fundanga: Developing Zambia’s Stock Exchange Remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the official launch of the BancABC Central African Stock Exchange Handbook, Lusaka, 26 July 2011. *  *  *    The Chief Executive Officer of ABC Holdings - Mr Douglas Munatsi    The Managing Director of BancABC Zambia Limited - Mr Dana Botha    The Managing Director of Lusaka Stock Exchange - Mrs Beatrice Nkanza    Management and Staff of BancABC    Chief Executive Officers and Representatives of various Institutions present;    Distinguished Invited Guests;    Members of the Press;    Ladies and Gentlemen. Let me begin by thanking the management of BancABC for inviting me to this occasion, which marks the official launch of the “Central African Stock Exchange (CASE) Handbook”. I also wish to thank the Managing Director of BancABC, Mr Dana Botha, for sending me a copy of the CASE handbook. The handbook provides a snapshot of various company financial results, share price performance and volumes traded in 2010. The handbook also highlights basic information on investment and borrowing options, which will not only assist investors diversify their portfolios but also assist in reducing transaction costs in our stock market. Ladies and Gentlemen, The stock market is an important avenue for harnessing resources for the financing of development in our country.