samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the context of rapid liquidity expansion, asset prices may overshoot, leading to potentially costly boom bust cycles, the misallocation of resources and pressures on price developments. In this respect, ECB research has also shown that monetary liquidity shocks have played a role in driving asset prices during the boom phase of asset price cycles. However, the issue of empirical causality between asset prices and portfolio allocation, on the one hand, and money and credit developments, on the other, remains a subject of ongoing research. A full understanding of the dynamics and forces behind global monetary liquidity is important for providing insights into the various transmission channels through which liquidity can affect the global business cycle, asset prices and global inflation. In the current context, if global economic growth and global liquidity are likely explanations for the recent increase in commodity prices, the resulting inflationary pressures should not necessarily be dismissed as “non-core”. The long-run impact of global commodity price pressures on inflation will depend on whether they reflect a temporary shock or a more persistent nominal trend, driven partly by ample global liquidity. Overall, when looking at the major OECD economies, consumer price inflation has been successfully contained for quite some time now. However, for the euro area at least, the information available at the current juncture – not least the monetary data at both the areawide and global levels – points to upside risks to price stability. Let me now address the second issue I raised earlier.

Apart from the internal push, ASEAN exchange linkage under the vision of AEC is taking place this year to allow global investors to trade ASEAN blue chip stocks at lower costs through a single platform. This initiative will ultimately raise the visibility of ASEAN capital market and continue to attract more capital flow. To sum up, as economic integration and upgrade of efficiency and competitiveness is key to our development, Thailand’s financial system is geared to facilitate this process. To do so, financial liberalisation will play a key role, with contribution by ASEAN banks as well as foreign banks operating in this region. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to reiterate that with solid economic strengths and a wide-ranging development in Thailand’s financial system, the Thai economy will continue to be resilient in the face of the dismal global outlook. The BOT is fully committed to sound monetary policy conduct and financial-sector development via the Financial Sector Master Plan as well as play a supporting role in Capital Market Development Master Plan. Let me end my remark by thanking the British business community for substantial contribution to our economy. Your contribution will not only strengthen our long history of economic partnership but also bring economic prosperity to both Britain and Thailand. I very much hope that the mutually beneficial ties between British and Thailand will blossom into the future. Thank you  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
The very low inflation is prompting some to argue that policy normalization may have to wait still, but perverse effects need not be underplayed. But it is likely that policy normalization – understood as a return to positive real policy rates, will be quite a time consuming process, particularly in Europe. Major risks persist, or even grow, in the global economy; they are due to interconnectedness and synchronicity of business cycles, the search for yield that has stimulated big bubbles again, a propensity to resort to protectionism measures (which adds to fragmentation tendencies), the accumulation of systemic risks in non-banking markets. When it comes to monetary policy let me mention a few challenges. The models central banks use have baffled in quite a few instances; we still do not have clear answers as to why inflation is persistently so low in most of the Union, in spite of economic recovery. Financial stability concerns are increasingly on our radars. There are other puzzles, like the flattening of the Philips Curve and I would range here the fall of financial intermediation in some Non-member Sates –in Romania and Hungary in particular. This seems to be a clear case of credit-less recovery, but that may also be the outcome of financial integration – for international companies prefer to source credit on external markets (where these may be cheaper). The global financial cycle poses a major challenge.

As the economic recovery took hold, the deflationary risks diminished, notwithstanding the appreciation of the Swiss franc. Over the past few years, my Governing Board colleagues and I have repeatedly emphasised that the SNB does not pursue an exchange rate target, but consistently bases its monetary policy on its legal mandate. This mandate stipulates that the Swiss National Bank is required to ensure price stability, while taking due account of economic developments. The dreaded scenario of a deflationary dynamic could thus be avoided so far. Nonetheless, the appreciation of the Swiss franc that ensued obviously impaired the price competitiveness of Swiss exporters. However, the exchange rate is only one factor to affect exports. This raises the question as to which other factors were potentially beneficial for the development of Swiss goods exports in the most recent crisis. 3 To answer this question, I would now like to take a closer look at the structure and developments of Swiss goods exports in the last 20 years. I will concentrate on three factors in particular, namely the geographical, the sectoral and the qualitative dimensions of the Swiss export industry. 2. Swiss exports: developments and an international comparison  2.1  The geographical dimension  Geographically speaking, Switzerland’s export structure has become increasingly diversified over the last two decades.
A somewhat higher cost for the provision of market liquidity during the more benign stages of a financial cycle might be worthwhile if it were accompanied by less volatility and stress when the cycle inevitably turned down. In fact, even if market liquidity costs are now going to be higher on average, this might be a small price to pay for a much more stable financial sector. Also, it is important to recognize that market liquidity conditions a few years from now may be very different from the situation today. If the cost of providing liquidity services has increased, this creates strong incentives for innovators to find better ways to match buyers and sellers. In my view, this innovative response is already underway. For example, in both the Treasury and corporate bond markets, firms are being established to more efficiently match buyers and sellers of less liquid bonds in order to reduce search costs and the need to carry inventory. Furthermore, execution algorithms have been developed that divide large trades into smaller sizes, thus reducing the costs of moving large blocks of securities. Market liquidity conditions could very well improve over time as innovation occurs in response to this new regime. Let me now turn to the topic of funding liquidity. I think this issue deserves as much attention as market liquidity. After all, during the financial crisis the demise of several major financial institutions resulted from their inability to finance their long-dated illiquid assets. The  5  Mizrach, B. (2015).

More generally, I am happy to report that the Committee on the Global Financial System – one of the Bank for International Settlements’ central bank groups – is engaged in a project to determine what lender-of-last-resort gaps currently exist, focusing, in particular, on those that may create vulnerability in terms of financial stability. One area that I anticipate will receive considerable attention is whether there are any gaps with respect to the activities of globally systemic firms that operate on a cross-border basis. Another issue that still needs greater attention is the appropriate role for the home- versus host-country supervisor. The regulatory and supervisory responses for large, systemicallyimportant firms that operate on a cross-border basis need to be closely coordinated, especially during times of stress. In particular, expectations about who will be the lender-oflast-resort need to be well understood in both the home and host countries. We have made considerable progress in recent years in enhancing the safety and soundness of the U.S. financial system. But there is more that we need to do. In particular, we need to study and understand how market liquidity and funding liquidity conditions are changing and what factors are driving that evolution. Conferences like this one go a long way in that regard. They serve as an important forum for discussing ideas and improving our knowledge and understanding. This will provide a solid foundation for any policy actions. Thank you for your kind attention. I would be happy to take a few questions. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Looking back at the financial crisis and more recent scandals, there must have been people who recognized early that what was happening was wrong, but remained silent.16 As the first line of defense develops and convenes in gatherings like this, it is important to remember one other professional value: courage. Professional courage is key to the appropriate functioning of lawyers inside corporations.17 In what has been called the “partner/guardian” dilemma—a bit of a misnomer since the “dilemma” is really a good thing—lawyers are supposed to assist the firm in its mission and protect its longterm reputation, its good name as a store of value.18 That takes courage, especially when an action is technically legal but otherwise wrong or just plain stupid. Your roles in the first line of defense also require professional courage. You are partners in your business. You are also guardians of your firm, the investment of its shareholder owners, the trust of its customers, and the expectations of public authorities. That is not an easy task. You have my sympathy. And you have my thanks—not just for being an attentive audience, but also for all of your good work. 1 Pinchas Becker, Thomas Noone, and Angela Sun assisted in preparing these remarks. 2 See generally Gillian Tett, The Silo Effect (2015).

Chances are, not really. I certainly do not, but then I’m just a lawyer. There may be a tendency to believe 4/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  that brilliant people built and tested the product. Surely they know better than you or I about how it works. We should therefore just trust the experts. I have seen this movie before. Similar assumptions existed a decade ago about CDOs and other complex securitizations and hedges. It has been said that the financial crisis occurred because of a failure of imagination—of not anticipating risk.13 There was also a more basic failure. Not enough people understood how complex financial products actually worked. It is critical that all three lines of defense—and, especially, the first line of defense—understand technology. I urge you to question your current technology, and to think ahead to further changes. For example, how will artificial intelligence challenge traditional methods of testing and assurance, which address static coding rather than dynamic learning? How will machine choices about access to financial services, or the cost of those services, avoid perpetuating or exacerbating historical disparities of race, gender, age, or zip code? These questions do not have easy answers, and they will likely lead to more questions. So don’t rest. Keep learning so that you can better anticipate risks. Professionalism and the first line of defense Finally, I encourage you to continue to develop a sense of your field as a profession. Now, I do not mean to imply that anyone in this room is unprofessional.
3 Official Norwegian Reports NOU 2017:13 New central bank act. Organisation of Norges Bank and the  Government Pension Fund Global (Summary in English). 4 Lie, E., J. T. Kobberrød, E. Thomassen and G. F. Rongved (2016): Norges Bank 1816–2016. Fagbokforlaget (in  Norwegian only). 5 Between 31 December 2007 and 31 December 2009, the average stake in listed companies worldwide  doubled. 7/7  BIS central bankers' speeches

Security of payments The rapid development of e-commerce in recent years and the increased use of electronic channels to initiate payments pose new challenges related to ensuring the security and customers’ data. As of September 2019, it has become mandatory in Europe to implement strong customer authentication. This means that when an electronic payment is initiated, at least two independent elements from different categories – knowledge, possession and inherence – must be used in the process. In the case of remote payment transactions, e.g. via internet, an additional requirement is introduced to perform so-called dynamic linking – linking the code for each transaction to a specific amount and a specific payee. These requirements are implemented by the payment service providers in our country. For the practical implementation of these regulatory requirements, new technologies are again coming to the rescue. Recently, biometric authentication has shown great potential by providing verification of elements characterising the user: fingerprint, iris scanning, facial recognition, etc. Many payment service providers in Bulgaria have already introduced similar customer identification methods using mobile banking applications. Apart from convenience, this leads to a significant increase in the security of the payment process, allowing the use of biometric data for customer identification. On the occasion of the forthcoming review of the Second Payment Services Directive, a comprehensive assessment of the impact of strong customer authentication on the level of payment fraud is to be carried out.
First, moral and ethical foundation provides the critical pillar for long-term business continuity and financial soundness of the institution, as well as its ability to play a contributing role in society. Therefore, bank directors must champion this principle, by becoming a role model in the bank, for example, by not providing undue favour to related parties. In so doing, you will help discourage management and staff from doing so. Second, banking and finance are businesses that are subject to regulation in order to ensure fair conduct of their fiduciary duty to the depositors and protection of the public at large by ensuring  2  BIS Review 25/2006  transparency and proper disclosure of information necessary for investors, society, and to ensure proper market conduct. Moreover, the regulatory framework also aims to ensure that the operation of the banking and financial system contributes positively to the national interest. Thus, it is in the interests of financial institutions to aim to play a positive role in conformity to this framework and regulation. And, in this way, the Board of directors has an important role to oversee that the institution is operating within the laws, regulations, and policy guidelines. The Board of directors should also ensure that the bank meets a high standard of transparency in its operation by ensuring proper information disclosure. This will help ensure that in terms of integrity, the bank can stand high in society, and not being seen as villains of society.

Asides from these efforts, the HKSAR Government has issued two rounds of institutional green bonds since 2019, with the 30-year green bond to be the longest tenor green bond issued by a government in Asia. As part of our continued commitment in promoting sustainable development, Hong Kong has also set up the world’s first government Global Medium Term Note Programme dedicated to green bond issuances. We believe this could not only create a strong demonstrative effect, but also help establish a benchmark yield curve, which is critical in supporting the further development of the green bond market in Hong Kong. Other Initiatives 16. Indeed, Hong Kong is already one of the major green finance hubs globally, with a strong presence of finance and legal professionals, global institutional investors and asset managers committed to green and sustainability. As the manager of the Exchange Fund (EF), the HKMA is also integrating sustainability into our investment strategy. We are not only supportive of responsible investment at the EF level, but also seek to collaborate with like-minded investors and international organisations to promote ESG standards in investment process. 17. Looking ahead, we believe that green and sustainable bonds will continue to be the key growth driver. In May, Hong Kong launched the Green and Sustainable Finance Grant Scheme to support green and sustainable bond issuance and lending. The scheme, which will last for three years, provides subsidy for eligible bond issuers and loan borrowers to cover their expenses on bond issuance and external review services.
Here again, the argument does not hold up in the face of the facts since the financial crisis unfolded in an environment of low interest rates and contained inflationary pressures in spite of soaring property and commodity prices, in short, in a context where price stability seemed well secured. The same was true for the previous bubble that formed on stock markets. A low  BIS Review 78/2008  1  interest rate environment, which often makes agents less vigilant about risk or makes them less able to gauge it, combined with very strong central bank credibility, is in no way a guarantee of financial stability. This is one of the manifestations of what some economists have termed the paradox of credibility. -  The third argument relates to the extraordinary transformation that our financial systems have undergone over the past few years, with a growing, if not predominant, role for market financing at the expense of bank intermediation. Yet the operational framework of central banks, by means of which they perform their role of lender of last resort, is mainly focused on banks, and retail banks in particular. Here again, the facts prove the opposite. The crisis has shown that banks remain at the heart of the financial system and that, as a consequence, the operational framework of central banks remains entirely effective. In addition, this framework makes it possible to reach other market participants, such as brokerdealers and investment banks. 2)  What have central banks done since the start of the financial turmoil?

More recently, the Government announced its Growth Plan a few weeks ago. As with any fiscal package, this plan embodies a variety of demand, supply and market impacts that are relevant for the macroeconomic outlook. We will need to assess all these elements and the interactions among them within our November forecast. At this stage, I would simply make two preliminary observations. On my reading, these fiscal announcements will, on balance, provide a further stimulus to demand relative to supply over the medium-term, monetary policy relevant horizon. This will add to the inflationary pressure coming from the EPG. And, the volatile market dynamics that followed the announcement of the Growth Plan underline the need to bolster the credibility of the wider institutional framework, in line with my earlier remarks. Second (and fittingly), second-round effects. As I have already mentioned, it is crucial that we prevent higher current headline inflation from becoming embedded in inflation expectations and price and wage setting behaviour, a risk intensified by the current tightness of the labour market. Heading off this risk will prevent the current energy pricedriven overshoot of the inflation target from becoming more persistent and requiring a more painful monetary policy response down the road. 6/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  As I have already said, the EPG helps somewhat in this regard. But, at least in my view, it remains too early to declare victory on this front.
Typically we obtain intelligence about what is going on from a number of sources, including a group of experienced staff who are operationally active in financial markets. We then evaluate and assess the threats from this intelligence. This needs people who are motivated to think through and identify new aspects of risk and threats, who can move with intellectual agility and flexibility between risks as they arise. This enables in turn high level management to judge the risk and allocate resources accordingly for risk reduction – as well as stopping work if threats no longer seem relevant. A key challenge here is distinguishing between slow burn issues (such as a gradual shift towards more exotic financial instruments) and the more immediate issues relating to, say, the prospect of a major market default. In each case it is important to understand the potential threats to financial stability: but the timescales and tools are different. The matrix helps to start the process. Above all we have to clarify the types of threats we are looking for. An issue here is the risk of “missing something”. Not acting on something seemingly minor may have significant consequences for financial stability and costs compared to the resource saved by ignoring it. So the stakes are high in getting this right – though we need here to be realistic as particularly in the early stages the significance of developments can be hard to read. b)  Risk Reduction  Secondly, risk reduction or mitigation.

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Third, price stability provides markets with an indispensable nominal anchor for adjusting changes in wages consistently with productivity growth, thereby contributing to preserve competitiveness. And fourth and not the least, price stability prevents the economically and politically undesirable arbitrary redistribution of wealth and income that arises in inflationary as well as deflationary environments. Ensuring price stability and ensuring the credibility of price stability over the long term is the most important contribution of the ECB and the Eurosystem to growth and job creation in Europe. The ECB makes also an important contribution to safeguarding financial stability in the euro area. This should not be underestimated, given that a well-developed and stable financial system improves the efficiency of financing decisions and ultimately fosters economic growth. Over the last five years, the ECB’s stability-oriented monetary policy has resulted in low and stable inflation and has ensured that medium and long-run inflation expectations have been well anchored. Furthermore, the euro area has enjoyed a high degree of financial stability. However, a monetary authority such as the ECB and the Eurosystem provides a necessary condition for growth but is not responsible for the other conditions that are equally necessary to ensure higher long-term growth and prosperity. This requires in particular sound fiscal policy and bold structural reforms. 2. The need for sound public finances  Sound public finances support a stable macroeconomic framework.

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