samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
However, taking into account the stronger-than-expected effects of the monetary tightening implemented in the first quarter, the output gap is expected to close at a slower pace compared to the previous period. In sum, due to developments beyond the monetary policy control such as the significant surge in oil and other imports prices as well as the renewed tariffs, we have revised our inflation expectations upwards (Chart 17). In addition, I would like to remind you that we will not respond to first round effects of rising oil and other commodity prices, but second round effects will be closely monitored and deterioration in the pricing behavior will not be tolerated. It should be emphasized that any new data or information regarding the inflation outlook may lead to a change in the monetary policy stance. Therefore, assumptions regarding the monetary policy outlook underlying our inflation forecasts should not be perceived as a commitment on behalf of the CBRT. 3. Risks and monetary policy  In the last part of my speech, I would like to mention risks regarding inflation outlook in the upcoming period and prospective monetary policy strategies to be implemented should these risks materialize. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  We envision that the impact of the ongoing monetary tightening on loans and domestic demand will be more apparent starting from the second quarter. However, the extent and the timing of the impact may vary depending on developments beyond the control of monetary policy.

Accordingly, the policy rate has been kept constant since February, while the weighted average of reserve requirement ratios for Turkish lira liabilities was hiked by 410 basis points in March and April  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  (Table 1). Meanwhile, in April, FX reserve requirement ratios were differentiated by maturity where short-term FX reserve requirement ratios were increased slightly. Thus, the policy mix composed of policy rates and reserve requirement ratios has been adjusted to deliver a monetary tightening, implying a more cautious monetary stance (Chart 2). Table 1. Weighted Average of TL and FX Required Reserve Ratios (Percent) Decision Date  TL Weighted Average  FX Weighted Average  January 24, 2011  9.4  11  March 23, 2011  13.2  11  April 21, 2011  13.5  12  Source: CBRT. Although credit growth slowed quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, the rate of increase in loans has yet to fall to levels compatible with financial stability (Chart 3). The upward trend in loans is driven by both supply and demand side factors. While intense competition is effective on the supply side; the favorable economic outlook and the improvement in employment conditions help to keep demand for loans robust. However, we expect that credit utilization will continue to lose pace in the second quarter due to the lagged effects of the current monetary tightening. 2. Chart 3. Chart 4. Loans  TL Business Loan and Deposit Rates  (Nominal, January 2007=100)  (Annual, Percent, 4-week Average)  Source: CBRT.
Nor is the softer version of this idea – converting this debt into perpetual bonds. Let us be clear on this: the public debt pile – which has risen sharply – will need to be paid back eventually… To do so, three combined levers will have to support the necessary debt reduction strategy: 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  1 / We will first need time in order not to phase out fiscal accommodation too early, and create cliff effects like in 2011–12. We should resume the debt-ratio reduction after growth returns to its pre-crisis level probably around 2022. But fiscal policy cannot simply be countercyclical in bad times; the same thinking needs to be applied in better times as well. 2/ Growth is indeed a key determinant in financing the debt inherited from the crisis. This leads me to the debate initiated early last year by O. Blanchard. First, the best way to ensure that the differential between the interest rate and the growth rate (r-g) remains negative – which is not granted forever, nor everywhere – is to increase g. And hence, let us listen to the balanced message of Blanchard: “public debt is bad, but not catastrophic. It can be used, but it should be used right.” Unfortunately, the quality and the content of public spending is too often the “blind spot” in the fiscal debate. In August, M. Draghi quietly coined the telling expression of “good debt”.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  Nominal Income Targets: an Old Wine in a New Bottle The State of the Economy The Institute of Economic Affairs’ 30th Conference  Charlie Bean, Deputy Governor Monetary Policy 27 February 2013  Chart 1: Nominal GDP growth Percentage changes on a year earlier 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Nominal GDP (a)  Nominal GDP expected 1 year earlier  -4  (a)  Nominal GDP expected 2 years earlier  -6 1999  2001  2003  2005  2007  2009  2011  (a) Sums the Monetary Policy Committee’s mean forecasts for real GDP and inflation. The Committee’s forecast for RPIX inflation is used prior to February 2004, adjusted for the difference in the inflation target.
High spending of public funds and the persistence of mediocrity will go hand-in-hand if no one is likely to be held accountable for failure to achieve outcomes. Therefore, good financial governance must be measured in the achievement of specific and measurable outcomes. If the outcomes fall short, then tax-payer money cannot be considered to have been well spent. When there is a lack of financial governance in the public sector, it means that government contracts are awarded based on who you know rather than who can give the best value for the money. As a result, government projects often become costly, poorly delivered and fail to provide the incentives for increased proficiency and productivity. Not only that, a pool of vested interest develops to feed on the lack of financial governance, and any threats to their privileged livelihood are met with great hostility. It is the privileged position of this vested  3  4  Source: IMF’s Fiscal Monitor Database. BIS central bankers’ speeches  interest that makes government reform so difficult. The end result is that the intention to have an economy that is driven by efficiency and increasing productivity remains unattainable. There are countries that have gotten it right when it comes to good public financial governance. For resource rich economies, Norway is one example, where since 1990, the government has put aside its oil income in a fund that at the end of 2014 was worth almost $ trillion 4.

Ravi Menon: Securing good jobs in a growing financial industry Remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Inauguration of BNP Paribas’ Asia Pacific Campus, Singapore, 7 March 2014. *  *  *  Alain Papiasse, Deputy Chief Operating Officer and Head of Corporate and Investment Banking, BNP Paribas Group, Eric Raynaud, Chief Executive Officer of BNP Paribas Asia Pacific, Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. I am delighted to join you today to celebrate the opening of BNP Paribas’ new Asia Pacific Campus here in Singapore. It is a truly impressive campus, skilfully combining the charms of a colonial heritage building with state-of-the-art facilities and technologies. A significant move The opening of this Campus in Singapore is significant for a few reasons. •  First, it demonstrates BNP Paribas’ firm commitment to strengthening the capabilities of its staff in Asia. This is BNP Paribas’ first corporate training centre outside of France. •  Second, it shows strategic foresight. BNP Paribas took the decision to invest in this Campus three years ago, when it was facing a very challenging economic environment with the Eurozone gripped by crisis. •  Third, it reflects in a way a broader story of the continued importance of Asia to European banks. After almost two years of stagnation, European bank lending to Asia has started to rise again.
This would certainly lead to distortions. Nor would I condone the practice of  BIS Review 104/2006  1  requiring licenses for opening a branch in another area of the country. The banks must decide this for themselves. The content of the license application procedure is very important. Here the authorities have an opportunity to prevent bad apples from entering the barrel. The authorities must check that both owners and managers are “fit and proper”, which means competent and not criminal. The requirement regarding skills is of course higher if they want to run complex banking activities. It is not necessary that each Board member knows every bank activity himself but between them the Board should be competent on all issues. Remember that Nick Leeson at Barings Bank easily convinced his Board that he could run a highly profitable derivatives trading operation without any risk to the bank! The license application also includes the organisation and structure of the bank group. You should demand that this does not hinder the effective supervision of the group. Do you remember the BCCI bank which collapsed in the early 1990s? The bank’s owners had created a structure for their group with the clear intention of making full insight by the supervisors more difficult. For instance, the main activities and risk-taking did not take place where the main office and thus the main supervisor was located.

Second, the development of pan-European individual retirement savings products to increase workers’ mobility and offer a new source of long-term financing for European companies. Third, the reinforcement of ESMA which is necessary to supervise capital markets in a harmonised way, while duly involving national authorities when appropriate. Completing the Banking Union and accelerating the Capital Markets Union will therefore be essential in order to lay the basis for a sound, diversified and integrated financial intermediation. Yet, we should go even further and achieve a real “financial Eurosystem”, made up of stronger and pan-European financial institutions and shared market infrastructures. Brexit, in this sense, represents an opportunity. Let’s be clear: there will not be a single City for the continent, but rather an integrated polycentric network of financial centres, with specialisations based on areas of expertise. Our ability to adequately regulate and supervise these changes in financial intermediation will be determinant for growth and innovation. Europe must effectively transform its own savings, in order to enhance its ability to finance the real economy. This is what Governor Villeroy de Galhau calls the Financing Union for Investment and Innovation. This involves better steering the euro area’s abundant savings to absorb shocks within the euro area more effectively and 8/9  to meet investment and innovation needs in fields such as digital technology, energy transition and the equity financing of SMEs.
Risks in the euro area – focus on Greece and Spain The concern on the financial markets stemmed of course from the public finance situation and problems in the banking sector in the euro area. Concerns increased during the spring, mainly due to developments in Greece and Spain. The situation following the parliamentary election in Greece in May fuelled speculations of an EMU exit. After a new election in mid-June, the political parties that support the savings programme managed to form a new government. However, it was still uncertain whether the new government would be able to implement adequate measures. At the same time, Spain continued to have problems with its public finances and yields on their government bonds rose. The problems in the Spanish banking sector also became more acute. In June, the Eurogroup promised to provide loans of up to EUR 100 billion to enable the Spanish banks to increase their capital adequacy, and the Spanish government formally applied for  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  assistance. Increased concern over the situation in Spain also meant that Italy and the country’s large sovereign debt attracted greater attention. At the end of June, just before our monetary policy meeting, the European Council decided on a number of measures to stabilise the situation in the euro area in the short term. The focus was on how the EFSF funding programme and later the ESM can be used.

Gent Sejko: Statement - press conference with IMF Mission Chief Statement by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the joint press conference with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Mission Chief for Albania Minister of Finance and Economy, Tirana, 10 October 2022. *** Dear media representatives, In the last two weeks, the Bank of Albania and the Albanian government have been engaged in intensive discussions with the IMF Mission, which visited Albania in the framework of the regular Article IV consultations. Discussion focused on current challenges for the Albanian economy, as well as structural reforms that would enable a faster and more sustainable development of the country in the long term. Allow me - first and foremost - to extend my thanks to the IMF Mission for the open share of views in addition to the fruitful and transparent discussions. Overall, the Bank of Albania and the IMF share similar opinions on the developmental challenges that lie ahead. The swift upsurge of prices in the global markets following the unprovoked military aggression of Russia over Ukraine, have triggered serious economic and social challenges for the economies and citizens of all countries around the world, including Albania. Inflation hit 8% in August, increasing at a rapid pace and having a broad base. Based on our judgement, we have previously stressed out that the high inflation is the main threat on the macroeconomic stability and both the stable and long-term growth of Albania.
The efforts are in progress at the international level to build the institutional, legal and humanitarian infrastructures of the globalization that we are de-facto living during the last 20 years. The Muslim World had the experience of building and maintaining a global order that embraced diversity and harmony over the regions spreading from Atlantic to Pacific and Central Asia to Central Africa from early 9th century till the end of 17th century where not only Muslims but also all members of the humanity experienced economic, social and political integration at a global scale and, unlike the turmoil and turbulence in the rest of the world, free trade and free movement of people prevailed without any discrimination against ethnic and religious identities. As member countries of the Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (COMCEC), our goal is to make a meaningful contribution to the idea of building a sustainable and stable global order to reach peace and prosperity that embraces differences between the civilizations as a source of richness and not a reason for clash, on the principles of justice, equity, participation and freedom for the humanity. The agreements we reach today will constitute the building blocks of our inspiration. Distinguished Guests, Since the last quarter of 2008, the impact of the global financial crisis on the world economies surfaced quite rapidly and destructively. The deterioration in risk perceptions destroyed banks’ appetite to extend credit to the real sector.

Durmuş Yılmaz: The impacts of the current crisis on OIC member countries Opening speech by Mr Durmuş Yilmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, in the Meeting of the Governors of the Central Banks and the Financial Authorities of the Organization of the Islamic Conference Member Countries, Istanbul, 3 October 2009. *  *  *  Governors of Central Banks and Financial Authorities of the Member Countries of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), Dear Guests, I would like to express our pleasure to host this event and such distinguished participants here in Istanbul. Welcome to the meeting of the Governors of the Central Banks and the Financial Authorities of OIC member countries, which is the only organization that gathers Islamic world under one roof. What makes this meeting more meaningful is that we are also celebrating the 40th anniversary of the Organization of the Islamic Conference and 25th anniversary of the Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (COMCEC) this year. As the cradle of civilizations for centuries and the European capital of culture in 2010, Istanbul is an ideal venue for this meeting. Dear Guests, The current global financial and economic crisis, we have been experiencing since last year, has profound negative impacts on the economies of many countries in all parts of the world, reinforcing inspiration and need for restructuring the current order of the global community based on the principles of justice, equity, participation and peace.
The combination of a lot of money to be invested and low risk-free interest rates contributed to an increase in the demand for assets that were profitable to invest in and led to an intensified hunt for high yield. This type of environment often inspires great inventiveness in the financial markets and many new financial instruments were also created. These were often complex and difficult to valuate correctly. But in the optimistic climate prevailing then – everything had gone so well for so long – it was nevertheless easy to sell them. Those who invested in the new instruments disregarded, or failed to sufficiently understand, the risks that were “inbuilt” in them. The financial supervisory authorities and regulations also lagged behind this development. The problems in the international financial markets began to become more apparent as early as summer 2007. But the Swedish economy and the Swedish financial markets long appeared able to manage fairly well, despite the fact that the turbulence was having more and more effects on the world around us. Of course, economic activity in Sweden began to weaken as international economic activity declined, but this did not initially seem to entail any very serious downturn. However, when Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September  BIS Review 73/2009  1  2008 the situation worsened dramatically. The confidence that had existed between financial institutions was shaken to its foundations when no one was certain who might be next in line to default on their payments.

We know from experience that the inflation outlook can change rapidly. During the late spring and summer of last year we were concerned over inflation being too high, even though this was mainly due to rising oil and food prices. Rising unit labour costs were also taken into consideration. Fears that high inflation expectations would become entrenched also formed part of the picture. We then raised the interest rate despite beginning to see signs of weaker economic activity in the future. The assessment was that this was necessary to attain the inflation target a couple of years ahead. When developments turned out differently, we had to quickly change our course. We are of course always prepared for situations like that. We are ready to act as quickly and as forcefully as is necessary, both to attain the inflation target and to carry out our financial stability responsibilities. Unconventional measures There have been many discussions on what the Riksbank could be expected to do if developments turn out weaker than we are now assuming. And our toolbox is not empty because the repo rate is so close to its lower limit. Put simply, the way the repo rate tool works is that the banks either borrow or buy Riksbank Certificates with a maturity of one week from the Riksbank at the price of the repo rate. In addition, there are what is known as daily fine-tuning operations between the Riksbank and the banks at an interest rate very close to the repo rate.
It has a direct impact on financing conditions; and in doing so it indirectly keeps demand in line with the economy’s supply capacity, at a time when this capacity has been squeezed by external shocks. We need to banish one false suspicion that tends to arise in this context: the idea that monetary policy aims to create a recession, and that a choice has to be made between growth and controlling inflation. This is wrong, first because persistent inflation would mean higher risk premiums and price distortions which, in the longer term, would curtail growth. Second, from a more cyclical viewpoint, euro area activity and employment have proved resilient over recent quarters. There is therefore room to act and I want to make this clear: our achieving of disinflation will not lead to a recession. The goal now is to avoid a faster re-acceleration of demand than supply in the expected 2024-25 recovery. To achieve this, financing conditions obviously cannot remain the same today as they were when there was a demand shortfall, as in the past decade when inflation was too low for too long. Technically, we are talking about monetary tightening or “restrictive” financing conditions: these words obviously sound less appealing, but what do they mean in reality? We are first aiming, through monetary tightening, for an increase in real interest rates at different maturities.

Ida Wolden Bache: Norges Bank’s management of the Government Pension Fund Global Introductory statement by Ms Ida Wolden Bache, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the hearing of the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs of the Storting (Norwegian parliament), 3 May 2022. * * * I would like to thank the Committee for its invitation. Norges Bank manages the GPFG with the objective of achieving the highest possible return over time within the limits of the investment mandate defined by the Ministry of Finance. The objective of the highest possible return is to be achieved within an adequate control and risk management framework, in a responsible and cost-efficient manner with a high degree of transparency. The investment mandate is extensive. Around 70 percent of the over NOK 11 000 billion in the GPFG is invested in equities, which means we are one of the world’s largest shareholders. We a minority shareholder in around 9000 companies in 70 countries. In addition, we have a broad portfolio of fixed income investments. Some of the GPFG is invested in unlisted real estate, and in 2021, we also invested for the first time in unlisted renewable energy infrastructure. The GPFG is managed to track the benchmark index fairly closely, so that the return largely tracks the return on the benchmark index. The benchmark index is defined by the Ministry of Finance and endorsed by the Storting.