samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
To be an international currency does not take much. You just need to lower the barriers and allow for it to be traded outside your borders. The Malaysian ringgit was an international currency before we de-internationalised it during the Asian Financial Crisis. At its peak, the ringgit accounted for about 18% of Malaysia’s trade settlements, which was significant given the high trade orientation of the Malaysian economy. However, what we learnt from the crisis in 1997 was that for our small open economy, the internationalisation of the ringgit was inconsistent with maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability, and the benefits were not commensurate with the risks. China is not a small economy but like Malaysia it is a developing economy. Therefore, it is not immune to the types of vulnerabilities an international currency and the accompanying open capital account can create in its immature economy with its immature financial system. The rapid momentum of the current RMB internationalisation reflects China’s strong position in global trade. However, it also reflects a safe phase of RMB internationalisation. It is comparable to wading in shallow water, where you can see the bottom of the sea, anticipate what hazards may lie on the sea floor, and therefore are able to walk rapidly. The real difficult part is when you get into deeper waters, where the risks are less visible, the waves are higher, the resistance of the water stronger. Progress can then be expected to be slower and more cautious.

Such new businesses are also more demanding in terms of managerial skills and smaller banks may find it difficult to attract the right talent. Consolidation by means of M&A is not the only way of grappling with these issues, as the Bank Consortium Trust has shown, but it is an option that the local banks in Hong Kong should keep very much in mind. This should be done as part of an ongoing process of strategic planning that looks ahead to the medium-term rather than simply the next year. The outcome of this process may be that the bank opts to stay as a stand-alone entity. This is a valid commercial decision if taken in a conscious and considered manner rather than by default. However, it should be kept under regular review in the light of the changing financial landscape. BIS Review 49/2001  3  Against this background, the position of the HKMA on bank consolidation can be summarised as follows: -  We continue to believe that we cannot, and should not try to, force healthy banks to merge or be acquired against their will. As noted above, this has to be a matter of commercial judgement by the banks concerned. It would be difficult for the HKMA to form a better view than market participants of how they should partner themselves, particularly since the success of individual mergers is by no means assured. Forced marriages between banks are even more unlikely to be successful.
A few years ago Japanese bankers used to tease me by asking what I thought of the “Wimbledonisation” of the City - meaning that this country organised the best competition in the world but the visitors carried off the prizes. I used to explain to them that it was activity - rather than nationality of ownership or even control - that mattered in terms of the City’s contribution to the wider economy, and in terms of its direct contribution to growth or employment, or BIS Review 134/1999  2  of income or tax base in this country; I even suggested that Tokyo would benefit as a financial centre if it became more open to overseas players. I don’t think that they were convinced at the time. But now that has begun to happen, and some of my Japanese banker friends tell me they finally see the point. It is in fact of course more generally a lot harder to see the benefits of increasing global competition if you are an existing producer, whether an individual business or the national representatives of businesses directly in the firing line than if you are looking at it in terms of the health of the macro-economy. But there is no doubt that it is this characteristic of openness to competition perhaps above all that explains the uniquely international nature of the City (with more foreign banks represented here than in any other centre) and accounts for much of the City’s continuing success.

And it is supported by a very strong tradition of technical training and education through the various financial institutes, a tradition which I hope may soon be bolstered by the development of a coherent set of professional qualifications across the different financial market sectors. But how far we remain successful will depend importantly, too, on how far we are able to maintain what I have described as the ethos of the competitive market place in a rapidly changing environment and that will represent a considerable challenge to public policy. Given market self-discipline, I have every confidence, Mr Chairman, that the various competent authorities will remain constructive and impartial in their approach to defining and applying the rules of the game, and open to innovation and wide participation, so that the City retains its position as an attractive location for the provision of financial and business services. So, Mr Chairman, I look to the future of the City with very considerable confidence. On recent form it has little to fear and great opportunities to look forward to. But I don’t say that it will be easy. BIS Review 134/1999  4
13  Unlike methods based on the exclusion of individual items, the PCCI is constructed by filtering out the transient component of inflation using econometric techniques in order to retain the persistent component(s) that is(are) common to all items. 14 The PCCI is calculated using the monthly changes in each item. 16  Page 17 of 19  The inflation expectations of euro area households rose at the start of 2022; they have since stabilised but have not fallen to any significant extent: in December, the median three-year ahead expectation was 3% according to the ECB’s CES 15 survey. The survey also shows that households’ responses on future price changes continue to be more widely dispersed. Regarding businesses’ inflation expectations, the Banque de France – after Banca d’Italia – is a pioneer in this field, having launched its own dedicated survey two years ago. As in the case of households, this survey shows a rise in the median three to five-year ahead expectation, which reached 3% by mid-2022 and has merely stabilised since then. 15  Consumer Expectations Survey. 17  Page 18 of 19  We have thus avoided a significant “unanchoring” of households’ and businesses’ medium-term expectations; but we still need to ensure they become lastingly “reanchored” towards the 2% target. Conclusion Today I have given no dates or figures: doing so would be meaningless and would equate to coming back to unconditional and excessively binding guidance.

The paper notably shows how monetary policy affects banks’ lending policies by making their liabilities more expensive. 8  Page 9 of 19  9  Page 10 of 19  This slowdown in credit supply is justified after the sharp rise in private debt ratios in recent years. Interest rates also influence the foreign exchange channel. The past depreciation of the euro has amplified the rise in imported prices, particularly those of commodities which are global and set in dollars. The 16% fall in the euro against the dollar between mid-2021 and mid-2022 would, if it had stayed at this level, have had an estimated impact of roughly +0.6 percentage points on the level of consumer prices over the long term. The monetary policy conducted since then by the Eurosystem has contributed to the recent re-appreciation of around 8% in the euro, which should gradually have the opposite effect. Do I need to say it again? We do not have an exchange rate target, but we closely monitor the effects of the exchange rate on inflation; it is good to see that they have become more favourable again since last summer. 10  Page 11 of 19  II. A few pointers: from the “sprint” to monetary normalisation in 2022 to the “long-distance race” towards monetary stabilisation As of the end of 2021, we responded to the inflationary shock with a rapid and clear shift in monetary policy stance.
For example, the newly liberated Eastern Province has potential for new opportunities for growth. Crop agriculture, the dairy industry, fishing industry and livestock are three key areas, which can make a significant contribution to growth. Women’s participation in each of these activities is estimated to be high and there are clear opportunities for women, seeking banking and financial services. It is time to prepare a comprehensive plan and that should have new entry points to accommodate women’s financial requirements. Some of the new entry points include the following: •  Information technology application and usage: The phenomenal growth in the telecommunication industry, particularly in the mobile telephone sector, could serve as the main platform to enhance the delivery of credit to women and girls. Sri Lanka is fast moving towards a technology savvy population. However, many women and girls still do not use computers and newer payment modes available through mobile phones and cards. In India and Bangladesh, many disadvantaged and vulnerable groups, women and children in particular, have benefited immensely from information technology, which has enabled such groups to have better understanding of prices in the market and business processes. The Government’s Information, Communication and Technology (ICT) Program should ensure that more and more women are included so that women can use the ICT entry point to enhance financial inclusion.

In EU Member States, between 2002 and November 2005, 202 cases of the restructuring of companies related to offshoring were publicly announced, which resulted in the transfer of nearly one hundred thousand jobs. Over that period, offshoring stood behind nearly six per cent of all cases of publicly announced restructurings of companies in the EU. So far, the scale of the phenomenon has not been large. However, offshoring as a strategy of increasing competitiveness is becoming more and more common and includes not only the manufacturing of products but also - increasingly - services. Table 2. Offshoring in EU member states Countries to which job transfer took place  Number of jobs liquidated in the EU between 2002 and 2003 due to transfer of jobs  Number of jobs liquidated in the EU between January and November 2005 due to transfer of jobs  China  3361  3077  India  9458  5470  Asian countries  3786  3271  Czech Republic  780  3890  Hungary  1110  772  Poland  120  2676  33151  31942  8  Source: European Restructuring Monitor , own calculations  Numerous analyses show that the process of offshoring is bound to grow and increasingly affect services 9 . For example, between 1980 and 2002 the trade in goods and services grew at 6.9%.
Mohd Adhari Belal Din: Cybersecurity – safeguarding the future for innovative financial inclusion Remarks by Mr Mohd Adhari Belal Din, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the "Cybersecurity: Safeguarding the Future for Innovative Financial Inclusion", Kuala Lumpur, 1 August 2017. * * * It is my privilege to welcome you to this landmark event – A very important policy forum for policymakers and regulators to discuss on the significance of cybersecurity in safeguarding the future for innovative financial inclusion. Intersection of financial inclusion and cybersecurity As digital financial services expands in reach, scope and scale, cybersecurity matters a great deal for policymakers and regulators with financial inclusion mandates. The fast-changing digital landscape has brought the financially excluded and underserved populations into the formal financial system, bringing about a positive impact on economic growth and stability. However the rapid paced innovation of digital financial services also opens up opportunities and incentives for cyber-attacks, which challenges the fundamental principles of information risk and cybersecurity management. Leaders must understand the risks associated with digital innovation, and balance the imperative to protect their organisations and consumers with the need to adopt innovative technology approaches. The likelihood for cyber-attacks and fraud is exacerbated by those who are inexperienced with formal financial services and unfamiliar with consumer rights. Low financial and technology literacy amongst consumers could translate to greater vulnerabilities and exposures.

These forces of change present equal measure of challenges and opportunities but are exciting. I would like to share some open questions for everyone to ponder upon. What is the top cyber security concern for innovation in financial inclusion which we face today? Have we allocated enough resources to properly address the most significant cyber security threats? What specifically have we done? What is our plan for identifying and addressing cyber threats? Is it current? And what does your organization need to do to ensure continuous cybersecurity vigilance moving forward? May we keep these questions in our mind as we have fruitful discussions and take home great lessons in order to keep pushing the boundary of what we could achieve. With that, I hope you will have an engaging, successful and fruitful discussion in the next 2 days. I strongly believe this forum would be a valuable platform for members to learn and share their knowledge and experiences as well as generate new ideas, approaches and innovations as takeaways that could be emulated in your respective countries. Thank you. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
271-301 6 See, for example, the discussion in Feldstein M. (1995), “The effect of marginal tax rates on taxable income: A panel study of the 1986 Tax Reform Act.”, Journal of Political Economy 103 (3), pp. 551-572. 5  3  top earners, while the reaction of the labour supply is modest. 7  For policymaking, it is crucial to know the direction and extent of these behavioural reactions. On one hand, because they inform the need for policy evaluation frameworks that go beyond the simple estimation of morning-after effects. On the other, because behavioural responses are at the root of the optimal design of the tax and transfer system. As a consequence, accounting for them is central to addressing a host of current policy debates, such as the optimal level of progressivity. Second, one influential avenue of research has documented a consistent trend of income concentration at the top of the distribution in some OECD countries in the last few decades. One explanation behind this pattern points to the concurrent fall in top marginal rates, whereby some authors have established a causal link. For example, it has been documented that the top 1% income share in the US has increased from around 8% in the early 1960s to 18% in recent years, this trend having been accompanied by a dramatic fall in the top marginal tax rate from 85% to 35%.

Why are all these questions relevant for central banks? In my view, there are sound reasons to argue that the research effort of a central bank need not necessarily be confined to the traditional fields of macro and monetary policy. On the contrary, the deeper and broader our understanding of the 11  See Gabriel Zucman (2014), “Taxing across Borders: Tracking Personal Wealth and Corporate Profits”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, volume 28 (4), pp. 121-148. 12 See http://www.oecd.org/tax/beps/. See also the Chapter 2 of the April 2018 Fiscal Monitor of the IMF. 6  economy is, the better we will be able to fulfil our task of producing good analyses in monetary and financial matters. In the particular case of tax and benefit systems, they have sizable effects on investment, labour-force participation and productivity, and hence on potential output growth and the level of the natural rate of interest. In addition, apart from potential discretionary decisions, tax and benefit systems are the main ingredient of automatic fiscal stabilisers in advanced economies. A deep understanding of tax and benefit systems is therefore crucial to anticipate aggregate demand and inflation dynamics and to assess the appropriate stance of monetary policy and, more generally, of the overall policy mix. From the standpoint of Banco de España, the foregoing arguments in favour of a wide view on our research activities are even more compelling since our responsibilities include providing advice to the Spanish government on economic policies.
Stefan Ingves: Basel III – regulations for safer banking Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, to the the Swedish Bankers’ Association, Stockholm, 10 November 2011. *  *  *  I would like to begin by expressing my gratitude for the invitation to speak at this bank meeting on the theme of “Basel III – regulations for safer banking”. In this presentation, I will briefly describe the Basel III regulations and the underlying reasons for them. Following that, I shall discuss the characteristics of the Swedish bank market that are significant for how we in Sweden shall implement Basel III. Before I finish, I would also like to illustrate how the authorities of a few other countries with large banking industries see the need for regulation. Briefly, however, I intend to start by describing the background of bank regulation – why advanced economies need a financial system, and the risks this entails. Banks are important to the economy The banks are of fundamental importance to the national economy. The banks are the single most important participants in the financial system, and their basic functions are often considered to be three. The system converts savers’ money into productive investments, ensures that we can pay each other when we exchange goods and services, and allocates risk among those who are willing to take risks and those who are not.

The question is how well the last 20–30 years of history reflect the risks we may face in the future. History warns us of low resilience in the financial sector Even before the last crisis, we in Sweden had already seen warnings of insufficient capital levels. The credit deregulation of the mid-1980s coincided with the highest leverage ratios in Swedish banking history. As some of us remember, lending increased almost explosively during the second half of the 1980s. The low solvency of the 1980s created strong financial leverage that facilitated the excessively rapid growth of credit. As most of us remember, this ended in disaster. The low level of solvency also made the banks far too vulnerable when growth slowed down. The crash at the start of the 1990s led to a banking crisis with three years of negative growth and steeply rising unemployment and public debt. As we all know, leverage can work both ways. Resilience is needed in uncertain times Only a few years ago, we came close to seeing history repeat itself. In late 2008 and early 2009, Sweden stood on the brink of a new banking crisis. The low level of confidence on the financial market and great uncertainty over developments in the Baltic countries made it difficult or impossible for Swedish banks to obtain funding on the market. The measures adopted by the Riksbank, the Ministry of Finance, Finansinspektionen and the Swedish National Debt Office were decisive for saving the situation.
Finally, emerging/developing economies have been subject to wide swings in financing from abrupt withdrawal of funds in 2008 to significant inflows recently, and as a result they are starting to implement capital controls. The risk is that these may spread unless financial flows become less erratic and more long-term and stable. 7. Concern about commodity bubble and high-yielding products  Over the past several decades, the world financial system has produced a seemingly endless series of bubbles (e.g. the dotcom bubble, the housing bubble and the Yen carry trade). Each bubble had its apologists before it burst, who argued that it was rational and that “this time is different.” Historically, commodities (apart from oil) were in a downward trend for over 100 years until 2002. Since then the entire decline has been reversed and commentators are talking about a “Paradigm Shift.” Compared to historical trends, commodities are as over-priced as the US stock market during the “tech bubble” of 2000. The parabolic rise in commodity prices has serious consequences and it is open to question whether the world economy is strong enough to support their continued gains. It is particularly damaging to inflation and growth in emerging market economies which are relatively heavy users of commodities. With interest rates at current low levels, investors are looking for high-yield products; but high yield brings high risks as well.

The infrastructure of the market is at a high level in terms of listing requirements, ongoing supervision, as well as settlement and custody arrangements. IPOs and capital raisings by local companies have been gaining pace, and this augurs well for corporate governance and operational efficiency. Government specialized credit institutions (such as the Public Investment Fund, the Real Estate Development Fund, the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, the Saudi Credit & Saving Bank and the Saudi Agricultural Development Fund) play an important role in providing long-term credit to productive sectors of the economy. Their outstanding loans as at the end of 2010 totalled SAR 178 billion. Moreover, government partnership in investments is an important factor in Saudi Arabia. For instance, the Saudi Electricity Company has a programme of public-private partnership projects in the power industry. The third source of local funds for businesses after banks and equity market should be corporate bonds. The corporate debt market is in the process of emerging, with outstanding corporate bonds to GDP at about 3%. The first corporate bond issue in Saudi Arabia took place in 2003 and in 2009 a corporate bond trading platform was launched. A number of bond issues have taken place, but so far no active secondary trading in debt has developed. Nevertheless, I am confident that this will develop in due course, both in conventional and sukuk form, as it has done in other markets. 4. Sources of finance: external  Businesses in Saudi Arabia also have access to external capital markets.