samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The chart illustrates developments in the labour force and the number of pensioners in the period up to 2050. The blue line shows that the labour force is projected to increase by about 150 000 from 2000 to 2030. Old-age and disability pensioners will increase by some 500 000, shown by the grey line. This means that the number of persons in the labour force relative to the number of pensioners will fall from 2.6 to 1.8. These rough estimates are among other things based on the assumption that labour immigration remains at the present level. The increase in the number of pensioners will result in a sharp increase in the obligations of old-age and disability pension funds. Expenditure on old-age and disability pensions is expected to more than double as a share of total GDP in the course of the next 30 years. The increase in the number of elderly, especially those over the age of 80, will in time require an increase in resources for nursing and care services. Welfare reforms that have been adopted will also contribute to increasing the need for resources in the public service sector in the years ahead. BIS Review 13/2003  1  With an ageing population and strong growth in expenditure on pensions and nursing and care services, our petroleum wealth will be a welcome source of revenues. This is why it is particularly important that it is managed in a sound manner. Petroleum activities are a substantial component of the Norwegian economy.

A clear monetary policy target is a necessary complement to the fiscal guideline with a view to ensuring reasonable macroeconomic stability. The operational target of monetary policy as defined by the Government is inflation of close to 2.5 per cent over time. The inflation target provides economic agents with an anchor for their decisions concerning saving, investment, budgets and wages. Households, businesses, public entities, employees and employers can base decisions on the assumption that inflation in Norway will be 2½ per cent over time. The rise in labour costs is an important factor underlying Norges Bank’s assessment of the inflation outlook and interest rate decisions. If wage growth is too high - both in manufacturing industry and other industries - the internationally exposed sector will be affected in two ways. First, high wage  BIS Review 13/2003  3  growth will itself reduce earnings and employment. Second, the interest rate will be raised. Normally, this will lead to an appreciation of the krone, with a further reduction in earnings and employment. This will amplify the impact of high wage growth on manufacturing industry. Since the new guidelines on the use of petroleum revenues were introduced in a period when the labour market was tight, the krone was expected to be strong in periods. The interest rate differential between Norway and trading partners has resulted in a strong krone. The wide interest rate differential is due to the historically low level of interest rates abroad.
Inflation expectations in the euro area must remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make its contribution towards supporting economic growth and job creation in the euro area. We will continue to monitor very closely all developments. The provision of liquidity and the allotment modes for refinancing operations will continue to ensure that euro area banks are not constrained on the liquidity side. All the non-standard measures taken during the period of acute financial market tensions are, by construction, temporary in nature. Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP growth decelerated to 0.2% quarter on quarter in the second quarter of 2011, after 0.8% in the first quarter. As expected, temporary factors which had boosted growth in the early part of the year ceased, and adverse effects resulted from the Japanese earthquake and the lagged impact of past oil price increases. Looking ahead, a number of developments seem to be dampening the underlying momentum in the euro area, including a moderation in the pace of global growth, related declines in equity prices and in business confidence, and unfavourable effects resulting from ongoing tensions in a number of euro area sovereign debt markets. As a consequence, real GDP growth is expected to increase very moderately in the second half of this year.

Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB press conference – introductory statement Introductory statement by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, and Mr Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, 8 September 2011. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by Commissioner Rehn. Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Inflation has remained elevated and is likely to stay above 2% over the months ahead before declining next year. At the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be moderate, while monetary liquidity remains ample. As expected, the pace of economic growth in the euro area decelerated in the second quarter, following strong growth in the first quarter. Looking ahead, we expect the euro area economy to grow moderately, subject to particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks. At the same time, short-term interest rates are low. While our monetary policy stance remains accommodative, some financing conditions have tightened. It remains essential for monetary policy to focus on its mandate of maintaining price stability over the medium term, thereby ensuring that recent price developments do not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures. A very thorough analysis of all incoming data and developments over the period ahead is warranted.
But this did entail making a decision - on the basis of insufficient information about the causes and depth of the crisis - that could have burdened the government budget with at least a hundred billion kronor. That is an experience we do not wish to repeat. Sweden recovered from the crisis on that occasion and in many instances our way of resolving it has served as a model for other countries. The crisis also focused attention on the work for financial stability. With the growing complexity of payment systems and the financial sector’s expansion, financial stability has become an increasingly important issue for the Riksbank, as it has for other central banks around the world. A review The bank crisis spawned a certain amount of self-criticism, not least in the Riksbank. In practice, the Bank had not backed up its function of promoting a safe and efficient payment system with any systematic analytical work. The problems that arose had taken the Riksbank, along with many others, by surprise. So we started to build up knowledge and an analytical capability in the field of stability. The work was initiated on a modest scale with just a handful of staff. It had a narrow focus on the early detection of weaknesses in the banking system that might lead to another bank crisis. The Riksbank also decided to publish a report that would discuss the situation for bank sector stability. Internal reports had been produced earlier.

In this context, I know that I can count on French banks to strictly comply with their commitments made to the President of the Republic on 11 December regarding the capping of bank charges at EUR 25 a month for 3.5 million vulnerable customers. These measures apply now – at the latest in February – and they will be controlled throughout the year. The ACPR has made honouring this commitment a priority for its on-site and off-site inspections in 2019. The French Observatory for Banking Inclusion (OIB), which I chair, with the participation of consumer and social integration associations, will monitor the figures and take any necessary action. The OIB will also ensure that banks meet their commitments regarding the diffusion among these vulnerable customers of the “specific offer”, and its lower cap on bank charges (EUR 20/month 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  and EUR 200/year). 2019 will also mark the 30th anniversary of the Neiertz Act : we welcome the decrease in the flow of newly overindebted persons whose number has finally returned to its 1989 level, since it stood at 90,000 “first-time applicants” in 2018, against 140,000 five years ago! A more recent yet very promising development is our mobilisation in favour of green finance. In the first quarter of 2019, the ACPR will publish the results of its survey on climate risk management by banks and insurance companies.
The international community is now intensifying its efforts to strengthen the international financial system, with the aim to build the foundations for a stronger and more inclusive global economy. In this post-crisis era, the role and relevance of Islamic finance have gained increasing attention. Islamic finance emphasises on achieving socio-economic goals in congruence with the Shariah objectives, thus reinforcing the fundamental disciplines that are essential to preserve financial stability. BIS Review 129/2010  1  Overview of Islamic finance and linkages between Islamic finance and conventional financial system In this last decade, Islamic finance has evolved to become a complete and competitive form of financial intermediation that serves both Muslim and non-Muslims consumers and businesses. The Islamic finance industry is currently worth more than $ trillion and growing at a rate of 15–20 percent annually, with anticipation of further growth to reach $ trillion in the next 3 to 5 years, as more countries around the world seek to further develop Islamic finance within their jurisdictions. Its appeal as a competitive and innovative form of intermediation has led a number of established conventional players to enter the Islamic finance industry, thus widening the diversity of Islamic financial institutions and its product range. Exceptional growth in Islamic finance is registered not solely in the Muslim world, but now spans across the western world and the Asia Pacific region where the growth is driven by commercial and business considerations.

Innovation of competitive Shariah compliant products is exemplified by the sukuk or Islamic bonds which is a significant and vibrant component of the international Islamic financial system. The sukuk are structured based on the specific contract of exchange of Shariahcompliant assets with a risk sharing mechanism between issuers and investors. The sukuk instrument is seen by issuers as an attractive alternative method to raise capital and investors are enthusiastically embracing it as a new asset class in their investment universe. Dynamism of the sukuk in the Islamic capital market is evident with the large variety of sukuk being structured and issued, including exchangeable, convertible and hybrid sukuk. The sukuk market stands at almost $ billion today and is growing at a rate of 40 percent annually. New issuance of sukuk in the global sukuk market has remained robust despite the challenging economic environment, with an increase of 43 percent to $ billion in 2009 while linkages with Europe have resulted in a more cautious market in the first half of 2010 which saw decline by about 20 percent in the global sukuk issuance, the trend is expected to reverse with initiatives by the Governments in Asia and the Middle East to raise funds for the implementation of infrastructure development and investment projects. In Malaysia, the Islamic financial system operates in parallel with the conventional financial system.
If confidence in economic policy deteriorates, for example because Norges Bank sets interest rates so low that inflation and unstable exchange rates are expected, long-term interest rates will rise. The cost of low confidence is thus high risk  5  http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/cpi0501.pdf  BIS Review51/2001  5  premiums and unnecessarily high long-term interest rates. Transparency in our intentions, strategies and implementation of monetary policy may contribute to reducing uncertainty among economic agents. If monetary policy is predictable, an important source of risk is diminished. Thus, all else being equal, the interest rate that is necessary to achieve the inflation target will be lower. There will then be a better chance of achieving the inflation target without frequent and abrupt changes in the key rate. Predictability may contribute to ensuring more stable developments in demand and output. Thus, a predictable monetary policy may contribute to improving the efficiency and impact of monetary policy. Predictability and transparency are often equated. However, increased transparency does not necessarily imply a higher degree of predictability. Many cite the Bank of England as a very transparent central bank, because it presents its assessments of the economic outlook in its inflation 6 reports and publishes the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meetings.

Low interest rates and household indebtedness I would like to conclude by saying something about my view of household indebtedness. However, before I discuss the last of the three risks that I associate with a low real repo rate I would like to clarify a matter of principle. I am one of those who believe that a long period with low interest rates can lead to various imbalances. Such imbalances can arise, for example, if credit growth is too rapid, if asset prices increase too much or if the price of financial risk is set too low.8 Unbalanced development is characterised by the fact that, for one reason or another, an excessive level of indebtedness arises in the economy. If the economy has fallen into a recession following such a period, the recovery may be very slow as households and companies will spend a larger part of their incomes on amortization payments rather than on consumption and investment. The financial crisis of 2008–2009 is the latest example that clearly demonstrates  8  For a similar discussion see, for example http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/speeches/2012/annualaddress/ or 80th Annual Report, June 2010. BIS. BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  how important it is to avoid such a situation. The US economy fell into recession in early 2008 as a result of problems on the housing market and an excessive expansion of credit in the household sector.
To be clear, such house price growth relative to earnings would not be at all unusual for the UK – over the five years leading up to the crisis, house prices grew at three times the rate of income growth and there were about 70% more mortgage approvals per month than we have seen since 2014. And in the late 1980s, house prices again grew at well over twice the rate of earnings. 11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  11  Chart 6. LTI distribution of new mortgage lending(a)(b)  Sources: FCA Product Sales Database and Bank calculations. (a) The Product Sales Database includes regulated mortgages only. (b) LTI distribution of new mortgage lending in 2016 Q4 and at the end of an ‘upside’ 7-year scenario, with or without FPC Recommendations in place. There is a separate but related question about the extent to which the relatively subdued evolution of house prices and transactions between 2014 and 2019 was due to the FPC’s policy, including a general signalling effect on indebtedness. But general economic developments (for example, weaker than forecast economic growth, the post referendum inflation squeeze on incomes, and general Brexit uncertainty) and housing policies beyond the central bank (such as changes to Buy-to-Let tax treatment) have probably played the bigger role. And the flow limit of 15% has never ‘bitten’ in aggregate – since the policy was introduced flows of new mortgages at or above four and a half times income have not exceeded 11%.

9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  9  The results show that the highly indebted tail has become a little smaller over since 2015. At the same time, the average debt level of the mass of the distribution has increased (Chart 3). If we draw on the literature on the links between debt and consumption cuts I mentioned earlier, and apply those coefficients to these stock distributions, we find that the two effects broadly offset each other. We can therefore I think conclude that the vulnerability from indebtedness has not changed markedly since 2014 – the increase in vulnerability that the FPC sought to prevent happening has not happened. Chart 3. Estimated LTI distribution of the outstanding owner-occupier mortgages  (a)  Chart 4. Estimated LTI distribution of the outstanding owner-occupier mortgages – with and without FPC policy(a)  Sources: FCA Product Sales Database, British Household Panel Survey (1991-2008)/ Understanding Society (2009-13) and Bank calculations. (a) The 2015 H1 distribution of stock LTI ratios is based on loan-level data containing outstanding loan values and borrower income at origination. Incomes are updated to 2015 H1 using panel data quantile regressions. The 2018 H2 distribution combines the 2015 H1 data on the stock of mortgages with loan-level data on the subsequent flow of new lending, also updated to 2018 H2. See Levina et al (2019) for methodology  Sources: FCA Product Sales Database, British Household Panel Survey (1991-2008)/ Understanding Society (2009-13) and Bank calculations.
We believe that these efforts will help maintain and booster public confidence in mcommerce and provide a conducive environment to attract important industry players to extend their m-commerce services in Hong Kong. 32. It takes only 20 years to make the world’s first smart-phone look like something out of the Stone Age. So, I won’t be surprised if today’s latest models would also end up in some exhibition cases, to be surveyed with great amusement, in a not-so-distant future. In the history of the human race, mobile commerce will certainly form one of those exciting chapters which are about how we innovate to make our lives simpler yet merrier. With our concerted efforts, I believe that we will be able to contribute to this new chapter, and people who have read it will come to the conclusion that, for mobile payment in Hong Kong, innovation and safety always move one way – forward. 33. Thank you. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Ladies and gentlemen, Despite our progress, we should not settle for what we have achieved thus far. Much more can be done and need to be done to improve the sustainability of the Thai society as a number of challenges remain. Some of which leave us to question our collective actions as a society on how we allow these challenges to get out of hand. Allow me to highlight four challenges in particular: First, despite a more broad-based economic growth and a number of government policies targeting low income households, 2/6  Thailand remains among the world’s most unequal countries in terms of wealth, with the richest one percent owning more than half of total household wealth2. Meanwhile, low financial literacy and high household debt level continue to hamper the ability of individuals to pursue new opportunities and secure long-term financial security. These have curbed individual’s chance to improve her socio-economic status in the long-run. Essentially, widening wealth and income inequality is a major contributor to the fragility of the Thai society and is frequently used as an excuse to draw public support for a number of costly and unsustainable populist policies. Second, our labor productivity growth is moderating and should be emphasized. As an aging society with declining labor force, enhancing productivity is critical for the Thai economy to maintain growth. And yet a number of public policies have focused on creating short-term stimulus rather than on encouraging the necessary adjustments to address long-term productivity issue.
Maximum stability in output could, on the other hand, result in sharp fluctuations in the rate of inflation and erode the credibility of the monetary regime. A point somewhere midway between the two extremes must therefore be found. Consequently we cannot be called "inflation nutters" as Mervyn King, deputy governor of the Bank of England, once said. Let me also stress the importance of central bank independence. In order to be successful with the implementation of an inflation target approach, the central bank needs to be able to act independently of day-to-day party politics and to set interest rates continuously according to the specified inflation target. Otherwise a credibility problem may arise because it would be hard for policymakers to convince the general public of monetary policy's long-term nature. Following the changeover to a flexible exchange rate in 1992, monetary policy in Sweden was directed towards an explicit and quantified inflation target. The decision rule by which our monetary policy is usually guided is in fact quite simple. It states that if the forecast rate of inflation 1-2 years ahead is above 2 per cent, then normally the repo rate should be raised and vice versa. The reason why we chose this target horizon is that an adjustment of the monetary stance takes time to exert its full impact on inflation and the macro economy in general.

Andres Sutt: Macroeconomic co-ordination and fiscal policy in the expanding Eurozone Statement by Mr Andres Sutt, Deputy Governor of Eesti Pank (Bank of Estonia), at the conference “thinking EUconomy - Wirtschaftspolitik europäisch denken”, Berlin, 3 May 2006. *  *  *  The enlargement of the European Union with the clear message that all countries without an opt-out clause will, in the future, be also members of the EMU, is a most welcome and forward-looking approach in view of an ongoing globalisation and integration processes in the world. Eventually, the adoption of the single currency by all Member States provides clear benefits for the Union as a whole. From the macroeconomic point of view it would support further economic integration and higher growth rates by fostering trade and investments. Therefore, euro area enlargement will provide tangible benefits for all European citizens over time. The main policy challenge for both the current and prospective euro area members is to ensure that the best use is made of the monetary stability provided by the framework of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). From the perspective of the new Member States, the issue at stake is how to maintain the economic structure supportive for sustained growth and rapid real convergence. Strong fiscal stance is instrumental in this regard.