samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Personally, I am encouraged that we have not seen a tidal wave of public announcements declaring large-scale affiliations among banking, brokerage and insurance firms. Passage of the Act may well lead to a few more mergers among larger firms specializing in different financial service sectors and aiming to take advantage of perceived synergies and cost advantages. But we shouldn’t be surprised if the Act has only limited immediate structural impact. This view is based on several observations:  3  BIS Review 32/2000  •  On the commercial bank/securities side, the Act to a great extent reflects structural reality. Following the liberalization of the rules governing so-called Section 20 subsidiaries in 1996, several dozen securities firms were acquired by bank holding companies over the 1998-99 period. There are now 51 active securities affiliates, most of them in this district. I think that most bank holding companies that want to engage in securities dealing are doing so already. •  On the insurance side, many banks have been engaged in agent activities for some time, particularly following the Supreme Court’s 1996 Barnett Bank decision. However, it remains unclear whether more than just a few banks have real interest in underwriting insurance. Moreover, many insurance firms are mutual companies, which would prevent mergers and acquisitions, at least until they became stock companies.

Thomas Jordan: Current challenges for the Swiss National Bank in the area of monetary policy Summary of a speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Money Market Event of the Swiss National Bank, Zurich, 27 March 2008. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  With its forecast that GDP will grow by 1.5%-2.0% and the average inflation rate will amount to 2%, the National Bank is cautiously optimistic for the Swiss economy in 2008. However, since the summer of 2007, the international environment has taken a clear turn for the worse: Financial markets are in a serious crisis, the major economies are weakening and inflation rates are rising worldwide. This means that the SNB’s monetary policy is facing challenges on several fronts simultaneously. With regard to economic growth, the SNB is called upon to assess the consequences of the international financial crisis for the Swiss economy as precisely as possible and to analyse their implications for monetary policy correctly and at an early stage. On the inflation front, it must ensure that the measures taken in connection with the financial market crisis do not jeopardise the credibility of a monetary policy geared to long-term price stability or shake established inflation expectations. Finally, the challenge in the money market is two-fold.
North Macedonia stands out as an outlier, as the share of investments continued to increase, and it is one of the rare economies with investment level currently well above the pre-crisis one. This reflects stable and resilient domestic financial system, and rising inflows of FDIs, mostly in the tradable sector, that persisted despite the global crisis. This process was driven by the investment supportive policies and reforms, that significantly improved the business environment, as visible through the high ranking on the WB’s Doing business - improvement of 22 positions in ten years, currently ranked tenth. It diversified the structure of the economy, making it more resilient to external shocks, and leading to positive shifts in the export base towards higher value added products. The outcome of this process was visible improvement of the external position of the economy, and further increase of official reserves, thus creating room for accommodative monetary policy, given the de facto fixed exchange rate. Clearly, we are a good example that reforms pay off and we remain committed to their implementation. The best contribution that we as central bank can and do make is to maintain price stability and assure and strengthen the soundness of the financial system. Macroeconomic and financial stability is the basis of the investment climate that when in place significantly reduces the country risk premium and attracts foreign investors, but also boost domestic savings. In this light, in recent period, we have undertaken a number of measures to assure for the soundness and resilience of the banking system.

The former exchange rate peg policy, as well as our current membership of the euro area, are not ends in themselves, but are a means to ensure the economic well-being of our citizens. 5
Following the monetary policy meeting on 21 September, the Executive Board stated that developments in output, demand and underlying inflation had been consistent with the projections in the June Inflation Report. The Executive Board also stated that its monetary policy strategy and assessments indicate that the interest rate should be gradually increased in the period ahead. One option was to increase the interest rate at this meeting, but the Executive Board found it appropriate to leave the interest rate unchanged. Household credit growth Monetary policy easing through 2003 and into 2004 has resulted in low real interest rates. Short-term real interest rates may now be considerably lower than the level that implies long-term balance in the economy – the neutral real interest rate. A low real interest rate, and expectations of a continued low real interest rate, will contribute to stimulating activity even after the effects of the interest rate fall unwind. Although the projections are based on rising real interest rates, the real interest rate will be lower than the neutral rate during the entire period. The monetary policy stance is therefore expansionary. So far, the effects do not appear to be stronger than expected, but we have little experience of such low interest rates. How quickly prices and wages will react when growth in output and employment picks up is uncertain. There is also a risk that an interest rate that is kept low for a longer period may lead to expectations of a persistently low interest rate.

Thomas Jordan: Monetary policy under the spell of the financial crisis Summary of a speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the State Street Global Advisors (SSgA) Prima Talk, Zurich, 6 May 2009. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The crisis in global financial markets has led to a sharp downturn in the world economy. Unavoidably, the Swiss economy has been pulled down too. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has reacted by considerably relaxing its monetary policy, moving – in effect – to a zero interest rate policy. The SNB is maintaining its ability to act at times of zero interest rates by making use of three unconventional measures: increasing the number of long-term repo transactions, purchasing Swiss franc bonds issued by private sector borrowers and buying foreign currency on the open market. The initial impact of these measures has been positive. Risk premiums in the money and capital markets have fallen slightly. The tendency of the Swiss franc to appreciate against the euro has been checked and volatility is declining. Curbing the upward pressure on the Swiss franc helps to protect against deflation risks in Switzerland. The Swiss economy is currently experiencing the most severe economic crisis since the midseventies.
Stefan Ingves: Banking reforms Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a seminar arranged by the Bank of Spain together with the IMF for ministers of finance and central bank governors from North Africa and the Middle East, Toledo, Spain, 3 November 2006. *  *  *  Thank you for inviting me to speak at this seminar. The topic for this session reflects that the ever ongoing changing circumstances, such as globalisation and integration of markets, make old structures and approaches obsolete and call for reforms. The title of today’s seminar is “Reform strategies for central banks and banking systems in North African and Middle East countries”. Since I do not believe in a top down approach where the authorities dictate the structure and details of a banking system, I would prefer to approach the issue by discussing how the authorities should establish a framework which promotes the growth of a modern banking system. Such a framework includes several components such as modern legislation and regulation, supervision, a financial safety net – in addition to the obvious centrepieces, namely the banks themselves and a central bank that conducts market-based monetary policy. I will discuss a number of components which are necessary in a modern banking system to make it efficient, while at the same time flexible to accommodate developments and resilient to promote financial stability.

This means that a financial instrument or activity is regulated in the same way, whether it is linked to a bank or another type of financial institution. Such treatment ensures fair competition and facilitates the development of an open financial system. An institutional approach implies that there is different legislation for different categories of financial institutions, also in the cases where they perform similar services. This may sometimes be necessary, but should be avoided since it may limit market competition and development. Another divide goes between principles-based and rules-based regulation. In the first category, general principles are provided such as “banks shall be managed in a safe and sound manner”. The authorities may then interpret this and take measures against a bank when they see fit. Rules-based regulation is more precise and says, for instance what a bank must do in order to ensure that it is managed in a safe and sound manner. I do not have a one-way view on this issue. The choice depends to some extent on your country’s legal traditions. Recent financial regulation in my own country mixes the two approaches, setting the broad principles in the legislation and delegating to the authorities to formulate the more precise and detailed rules. This approach also fits well with the fact that the financial sector is developing fast. It is quicker to change secondary regulations than the legislation itself. When regulating financial activities, it is useful to apply an analysis of the costs and benefits to society.
The potential for banks in the U.S. to share SARs data with certain affiliates around the globe in order to better identify malfeasance. The clear statements of support for the use of new technologies to make anti-money laundering systems more efficient. It is encouraging to see how the United States and its global partners have worked together to stem the tide of financial crimes. The Federal Reserve is happy to partner with the U.S. Treasury to collaborate with the Union of Arab Banks and your organizations in the effort to enhance detection methodologies and to unravel crime syndicates. I thank you for engaging in this valuable conference and I hope that we can learn from each other to continue fighting international financial crime. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

The yield on long-term bonds in Swiss francs is also around two percentage points below that on corresponding euro paper. This has lowered the attractiveness of the Swiss franc somewhat compared with the euro. The stabilisation of the euro/Swiss franc relationship – albeit at a relatively high rate for the Swiss franc – is a positive development. Experience has shown that the exchange rate development has a significant influence on business activity in Switzerland. We are still determined to counteract any additional upward trend of the Swiss franc that might jeopardise the economic recovery. BIS Review 73/2002  1  Bonds In the capital markets around the world, nominal yields dropped considerably (see graph). However, borrowers with medium and low credit ratings did not benefit much from this development as credit risk premiums rose during the year. This also limits the macroeconomic stimulus effect of the yield decline. In addition, real interest rates did not decrease to the same extent because simultaneously inflation expectations again subsided markedly. Particularly in the euro's core countries – first and foremost in Germany – real interest rates are high. They depress the economic outlook and increase the growth differences between the member countries. Shares Stock markets were characterised by extraordinarily sharp fluctuations and hefty price losses. This was due to risk aversion increasing in the course of the year and the effectively higher risk level, which both depressed share prices. The sharp price swings mirror the difficulty of assessing the risks and opportunities in this environment.
The Treaty was ratified by the parliaments and governments of all Member States of the European Union and in some cases endorsed by referendum. Thus the delegation of European monetary policy to the ECB is endowed with full democratic legitimacy. This bond of legitimacy is a crucial aspect of sound institutional foundations for monetary policy. There is no doubt that in order to be successful over the longer term, the ECB as the guardian of price stability - like any institution in a democracy will have to win and maintain the trust and support of the European public. It can and should be held accountable for fulfilling its mandate. This mandate is clear, but it is also limited. It needs to be understood what monetary policy can be expected to deliver, but also what it cannot be expected to achieve. This is particular important in the case of the European Monetary Union, which not only delegates the authority for monetary policy to an independent central bank but which also severs the traditionally close link between the currency and the nation state. Historically, currency jurisdictions and national borders have tended to coincide, at least in more recent times. This reflects the fact that the right to issue money has been seen as a key attribute of national sovereignty. Thus monetary union cannot be regarded as just a small and innocuous step of a primarily technical nature.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Ten years’ experience in steering interest rates – taking stock of the Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy strategy Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the University of Fribourg, Fribourg, 20 November 2009. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy strategy has proved successful over the ten years since its introduction. Throughout this period, the SNB fulfilled its mandate of ensuring price stability while taking into account economic developments. The inflation forecasts, produced quarterly on the basis of various indicators, have proved especially useful. It has always been possible to successfully manage the Libor – the operational objective of the SNB’s monetary policy – despite an international environment which, at times, has been extremely turbulent. The Libor was maintained within a range intended to provide the bestpossible conditions for a favourable development of the Swiss economy.
At the same time the system will strengthen Turkey’s links with the European member countries and will enable it to trade in the same currency as other members, a requirement for participation in the EMU. As far as the technical infrastructure is concerned, Turkey is ready to integrate itself into the EU. I would like to remind you that Turkey has been pursuing a series of liberalization policies since 1980 which are broadly in line with economic tendencies in the world. A wide range of policy measures were put into effect to achieve the restructuring of the economy. Changes in exchange rate and trade policies were the main instruments in this process. This program has brought a radical change in Turkey’s development strategy by increasing its dependence on market forces. In this context, the fixed exchange rate policy was replaced by the flexible one, restrictive control measures on imports were abolished and protection was reduced gradually. Similarly, foreign exchange transactions were thoroughly liberalized, free trade zones were established, foreign investment was further encouraged along with the privatization of public enterprises. As a result of these newly adopted policies, there have been spectacular changes in the Turkish economy, with exports and foreign investments having proved to be responsive to the structural adjustment process; within this process, the Turkish lira has become fully convertible and restrictions on capital movements have been effectively removed.

BIS Review 105/1997  -2For a currency union to function “smoothly and in a sustainable way, it is absolutely necessary that all participants agree on either a single common policy or closely coordinated policies”. All costs and benefits of the union must be shared equally. Any member acting with the “free-rider” mentality, and benefiting from the system at the expense of the others, will eventually cause the system to disintegrate. Therefore, a single common currency requires a single monetary policy with a clearly defined target, which is price stability. This basic principle of monetary policy has already been embedded in the Maastricht Treaty. And the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) has been made responsible for achieving it. In order for the ESCB to fulfil the task assigned to it, it must act in full independence from national governments or from European institutions. The ESCB Governing Council, which is composed of the Board of Management of the ESCB and the governors of the participating central banks, will not be representing respective national interests. Although there are some differences between the two systems, the ESCB is like the Federal Reserve System of the US. For the ESCB to act independently, individual national central banks must already be acting independently of their governments, because the ESCB will be built on individual national central banks. That is why the Maastricht Treaty made it obligatory for the national governments to grant independence to their central banks in the period leading to the formation of the ESCB.
In order to provide some evidence on this question, we employ the vector auto-regressions estimated in Section 2 to assess how effective a relatively aggressive LATW policy would have been in moderating the credit/asset-price boom. Specifically, we inject a series of interest rate surprises calculated to leave policy rates roughly 200 basis points higher over the pre-crisis period 2003–2006, implying a substantially tighter policy than was actually followed. As most advocates of LATW seem to have in mind a relatively modest increase in policy rates, this seems to be at the upper bound of what might be considered appropriate. Conducting the counterfactual policy experiment by inputting a different sequence of monetary policy shocks without changing the policy rate reaction function is potentially subject to the Lucas Critique, but seems reasonable as it is likely that private agents would have taken time to alter their beliefs about that reaction function. Charts 7a and 7b show the implications of this policy, for the United States and United Kingdom respectively, together with one standard deviation confidence bands; 11 Table 3 presents some associated statistics for the median paths. The Federal Funds rate would have started rising in 2003, rather than mid-2004 and peaks at around 7.5 per cent in late 2006. The policy is quite effective at dampening real house price inflation, though the impact on real credit growth is more muted. Real house prices would have peaked around 7.5 per cent lower.

Finally, Shiratsuka  6  10  The European Central Bank has also bought € billion (0.6% of GDP) of covered bonds and the same quantity of distressed euro-area sovereign debt, though the objective of these interventions has been to underpin prices and improve liquidity in the selected markets rather than alter monetary conditions. BIS Review 111/2010  (2009) finds that credit premia across a range of assets fell during the period of quantitative easing. From an empirical perspective, the recent US and UK asset purchases offer a particular advantage – they are vastly bigger in size and took place relatively quickly. 7 Hence, greater precision can be expected. For the United Kingdom, an early event study by Meier (2009) suggests that the Bank of England’s initial £ billion of gilt purchases reduced longer-term gilt yields by between 40 and 100 basis points. A more recent and fuller study is provided by Joyce et al. (2010). They examine the reaction of market prices immediately after each asset-purchase announcement and find that the total impact on gilt yields was to lower them by an average of about 100 basis points. 8 Moreover, as the expected path of Bank Rate (from overnight indexed swaps) was broadly unaffected by the announcements, they conclude that the primary impact must be through a portfolio re-balancing channel rather than through any information that asset-purchase announcements reveal about the likely future path of Bank Rate.
All in all, public expenditure on pensions, nursing and geriatric care is forecast to rise from about 18 per cent to around 23 per cent of GDP around 2030. Furthermore, a smaller labour supply and thereby lower production implies lower central-government receipts from employer contributions and income tax, for instance. A relevant example from Sweden is the costs of sick leave. If the Government's target of halving the number of sick days up to 2008 were to be attained, estimates from the National Institute for Economic Research show that the number of hours worked could be 0.4 percentage points higher per year up to 2008. If productivity were to remain unchanged, this could result in higher GDP growth of just over 0.4 percentage points per year over the period 2003-2008, thus enabling an improvement in the public finances of SEK 45 billion during the period. These resources could be used to enhance care and education - or to reduce the central government debt and thereby create greater scope for borrowing in the future when we are more likely to need it. When our requirements grow in relation to our resources, it naturally brings questions about the organisation and financing of welfare to the fore. The Nordic countries have a long tradition of dealing with welfare issues and a comparatively large public sector that provides, for instance, healthcare and nursing, education and geriatric care.

So, from having experienced a rise of almost one million people between 1950 and 2000, this group will increase by half as much, or by half a million people, over the next 50 years. BIS Review 46/2003  3  This trend means, according to Statistics Sweden's forecasts, that the economically active population in Sweden will have to support an increasingly large percentage of the young and old. Today, each person of working age supports 0.7 people that do not work. By 2050, it is forecast that each worker will have to support 0.84 people. If we only look at the elderly, there are 0.29 people that are 65 years or older for every worker. By 2050 this ratio is forecast to have risen to 0.42. These developments will entail ever increasing demands on higher labour force participation among the elderly. According to a study by Statistics Sweden, the percentage of Sweden's retirement pensioners that have to work to support themselves is forecast to rise by 50 per cent by 2035. One part solution to the problem comes from the immigrant population. It is people with a foreign background that are forecast to account for the net contribution to the economically active population. By 2015 it is forecast that approximately every fifth person in Sweden between 20 and 64 years will have been born outside Sweden or have foreign-born parents. Meanwhile, the number of Swedes with Swedish-born parents will be fewer in 2015 than in 2000.