samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Against this background, we emphasise that the firm anchoring of medium to longer-term inflation expectations is of the highest priority to the Governing Council. We believe that the current monetary policy stance will contribute to achieving this objective. The Governing Council remains strongly committed to preventing second-round effects and the materialisation of upside risks to price stability over the medium term. We will continue to monitor very closely all developments over the coming weeks. Regarding fiscal policies, the latest forecast by the European Commission points to a rise in the euro area general government deficit ratio in 2008, followed by a further small increase in 2009. This deterioration in part reflects a less favourable economic environment and a likely reversal of windfall revenues accrued in past years. However, it also reflects a standstill in fiscal consolidation and new deficit-increasing measures in a number of countries with fiscal imbalances, including some with high deficits. For several countries, the attainment of the country-specific medium-term objectives by 2010 at the latest, which is the commitment made by euro area governments in Berlin in April 2007, is clearly at risk. In these countries, much more ambitious policies are imperative. For all countries, prudent fiscal policies would also help to counteract current inflationary pressures. At the current juncture, it is also important to reinforce the structural reform agenda, in particular with a view to fostering market integration and to reducing rigidities in product and labour markets.

Bank Rate has been reduced by 4½ percentage points in the past six months. And this month the Bank began a series of asset purchases aimed at boosting the supply of money in the economy directly. In due course, this will act to expand money spending. In its entire 300 year history, the Bank of England has never acted so swiftly or extensively in response to an economic downturn. The second aspect of the required policy response is effective stabilisation of the banking system. The experience of those countries that have most successfully resolved banking problems, such as Sweden in the early 1990s, suggests that that will require uncertainty about the values of some of the more opaque assets on bank balance sheets to be dispelled. It will take many months to audit forensically the true state of those balance sheets and for some of the underlying macroeconomic uncertainty to dissipate. In the meantime governments have to stabilise the banking system by reassuring creditors in order to prevent the risk of either retail or wholesale runs of the kind we saw in the Panic of 2008. They have to subscribe sufficient equity capital – plain ordinary equity – in order to underpin the capital position of banks in the event of future losses.
BIS Review 23/2006  5  our ability to effect settlements with tax offices (submit tax returns and effect payments), obtain a driving license or register a vehicle online. We have been assigned the last position among the EU Member States due to the lack of possibility to register a company online — we cannot even download the forms from the website. For a contrast, in seven EU Member States there is already a possibility to register a company online, without any additional paper-based procedures. The only area in which Poland meets all the criteria to catch up with the leaders, is the ability to submit customs declarations online. This service is available at top quality in a decisive majority of the EU Member States and only six countries provide it at a level lower than maximum. 20 It is worth noting that the purpose of e-administration expansion is not to rank high but to bring measurable and specific benefits to citizens, companies, the public administration itself and the entire economy. The research conducted by the European Commission shows that EU citizens save approx. seven million hours yearly given their ability to settle the income tax (submit tax returns or effect payments) online. If such a service were commonly available and exploited, the amount of time saved by EU citizens in connection with the income tax settlement could hit 100 million hours yearly. It has been estimated that each transaction online reduces the amount of time spent for its execution by more than an hour.

16 It is a tool of both access authorization and control. Taking a closer look at the development of public services in various parts of the world, one can get an impression that e-administration is well-present in everyday life, has been wellorganized, thoroughly analyzed, and in a conscious and consistent way improves the quality of public services in highly  10  IVR – Interactive Voice Response – a phone technology that provides the user with an ability to contact a database over the phone with tone dialing function. Thus, the user can obtain requested information from the database or enter relevant data to the database. 11  “Leasership In Customer Service: New Expectations, New Experiences”, op. cit., Ain Järv presentation entitled “e-Economy and e-Government in Estonia” held on January 5, 2006 at the National Bank of Poland. 12  The system was launched in mid 2005 for the customers of the second biggest mobile telephony operator in Finland – Elis. More information can be found at www.pstm.net/article/index.php?articleid=707  13  http://My.eCitizen.gov.sg. 14  “eGovernment In the Member States of the European Union”, IDABC, November 2005. 15  “RFID tracks fever cases in Singapore hospital”, www.pstm.net/article/index.php?articleid=788. 16  “You will not enter without Chip. ID under the Skin,” Gazeta Wyborcza, February 16, 2006. 4  BIS Review 23/2006  developed countries in Europe and North America, whereas in the developing countries of Asia, a higher growth momentum and courage in implementing innovative solutions can be observed.
Caleb M Fundanga: The Financial Sector Development Plan Welcome remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the Financial Sector Development Plan (FSDP) National Financial Education Strategy Consultative Workshop, Lusaka, 20 October 2010. *  *  *  The Guest of Honour, Honourable Situmbeko Musokotwane, Minister of Finance and National Planning M.P. ; The FSDP Steering Committee Chairman & Secretary to the Treasury, Mr. Likolo Ndalamei; Distinguished Excellencies; Co-operating partners; Chief Executive Officers and Representatives from Banks and Non-bank Financial Institutions; FSDP Working Group Chairpersons and Vice Chairpersons; Distinguished Invited Guests; Members of the Press; Ladies and Gentlemen. It gives me great pleasure, on behalf of the Bank of Zambia, to welcome you all to the Financial Sector Development Plan (FSDP) National Financial Education Stakeholders’ Consultative Workshop. Honourable Minister, this very important workshop comes at the time when the FSDP is gearing up to implement many of its activities under phase II which the Government approved earlier this year. As you are aware, one of the activities identified under the FSDP II is the development of a national financial education strategy for Zambia. Let me hasten to say, financial education needs in Zambia are many and varied. They stem from inadequate understanding, by a good proportion of the population, of basic financial terms and concepts on the one hand, and a lack of knowledge of financial products and services that are increasingly available, on the other.

Having a look at all the statistical indicators, it results that the banking system at that time it was sound and growing continuously. But, all this was insufficient since the memories of year 1997 (the collapse of fraudulent schemes) were still present and households sensitivity to them was very high. Inspite of the recent significant achievements I would like to stress that still there is a high potential of fragility in our economy and the entire region as well. As a consequence, I think that we have to be much more prudent and much more diligent when speaking about the financial stability of the country. This episode suggests, inter alia, the necessity to associate the reforms with concrete preparatory steps and, certainly, combined with back-up plans in the case of failure. For this purpose the market needs to be intensively prepared and elaborated since in early stages of the implementation of reforms. It is imperative that the decisionmakers should themselves know in advance the market behavior and sentiments. Last spring, a joint assessment of the Albanian financial sector conducted from both the International Monetary Fund and World Bank (FSAP) concluded that: the financial sector consists mainly of a regulated and supervised banking system. The Stress-Test indicated that the level of different risk exposure to the banking system is rather low, an argument that supports this conclusion. The banking system has experienced remarkable developments over 2004.
For purposes of comparison, the (dash-dotted) green curve shows the conditional inflation forecast published in March, which was also based on the assumption of a three-month Libor of 0.25%. Until the beginning of 2012, the path of the SNB’s new conditional inflation forecast lies above that of the previous quarter’s forecast. This is attributable to the assumption of higher oil prices compared to the previous quarter and somewhat higher import prices. The significant increase in the third quarter of 2011 is due to a base effect, because inflation in the corresponding quarter of 2010 was comparatively low. In addition, a one-off statistical effect can be expected in the third quarter of 2011. This is attributable to more frequent data collection in the case of prices for clothing and shoes; it also accounted for an increase in inflation in the first quarter. During the course of 2012, the path of the new forecast falls below that of March, due to the slowdown in inflation attributable to the latest appreciation in the Swiss franc. Towards the end of the forecast period, inflation rises briskly and exceeds the upper bound of 2%. This shows that the current expansionary monetary policy cannot be maintained over the entire forecast horizon without compromising price stability in the long term. Due to the risks mentioned previously, the conditional inflation forecast is, however, associated with a high level of uncertainty.

The theme of this Conference, Financial integration and inclusive development, is particularly timely at this current juncture of the world economy. Global economic growth is at its lowest level since the global financial crisis, partly as a consequence of the high level of uncertainty surrounding trade and international relations. This weakness of the global economic landscape is adding to the new challenges that have emerged over the last decades: population aging, migration, security threats, the emergence of new economic and political powers, and climate change, to mention only some. And this evolution has taken place in an era of increasing globalization, that is being threatened by the emergence 2/3  of protectionist measures, and of digitalization and rapid development of new technologies. Together, these developments constitute a new frontier for policies that make it necessary to promote mutual understanding and make extensive coordinated efforts in the field of policies. In order to preserve the benefits derived from financial interconnectedness and technological innovation, it is now of the essence to put in place an internationally agreed response that allows to achieve the benefits of innovation while ensuring the mitigation of its potential risks. Policy-makers have the responsibility to support the research and analysis to base to foster growth and fight inequalities. In this Conference we are going to debate on a number of challenges that our countries are currently facing: from technological innovations in finance to migration flows in search for better opportunities, going through increasing financial interdependences or the need of boosting financial education.
PB16–4, April 2016; Saroj Bhattarai and Christopher Neely, “ A Survey of the Empirical Literature on U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper, no. 2016–021A, October 2016; and John C. Williams, “Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Putting Theory into Practice,” Brookings Institution Hutchins Center Working Papers, January 2014. 22 Studies show a lower median effect for Japan. Gagnon hypothesizes this may be associated with Japan’s  much larger government bond market relative to GDP than the other countries studied, perhaps suggesting that asset purchase effects operate in proportion to the size of the targeted bond market rather than the size of the economy. 23 See Ben S. Bernanke, “Monetary Policy in a New Era,” presented at the Peterson Institute for International  Economics conference, Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy, Washington, D.C., October 12, 2017. Bernanke argues, however, that deploying unconventional tools may not be sufficient in addressing a sharp downturn, and that changes in a central bank’s monetary policy framework may improve a central bank’s effectiveness in defeating the zero lower bound. 24 In addition, asset purchase programs may actively promote liquidity and improve market functioning during  periods of financial market stress, as was the case with the Fed’s first LSAP program, initiated at the height of 11 / 13  BIS central bankers' speeches  the crisis. In turbulent market conditions, the central bank’s willingness to purchase particular classes of assets can boost confidence and lower liquidity premiums that investors would require to hold otherwise illiquid securities.

1, Spring 2003. 34 Such communications are a form of Odyssean forward guidance about the balance sheet. See Jeffrey R.  Campbell et al, “Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance, ” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2012. The authors distinguish between central bank forward guidance that simply forecasts macroeconomic performance and likely monetary policy actions (Delphic guidance), and guidance that publicly commits the central bank to a set of future actions (Odyssean guidance). 35 Because market prices are forward-looking, an announcement that affects expectations about the stock of  assets held by the Fed should have an immediate impact on market prices. However, the overall size of the market impact will depend on the expected path of portfolio holdings over time. In addition, completion of purchases may be perceived as strengthening the central bank’s commitment by making it more difficult to deviate from announced plans. 36 However, since term premium effects decay as securities age, selling securities with relatively short remaining  times to maturity may not be materially different than redeeming those securities. 37 The Fed’s first two purchase programs were launched with pre-announced sizes and time frames (although the  first program was later expanded). In contrast, the third program was open-ended and state-contingent.
All of this leads me to conclude that macroprudential policies – as currently designed – can be used to mitigate risks from abroad. By building domestic resilience, the countercyclical capital buffer can ensure spillovers from abroad are not amplified. The use of existing agreements around reciprocity can improve the available set of outcomes for everyone and can also help reduce imbalances in capital flows. Moreover, given the tendency for global credit growth to affect the probability of domestic crises, any macroprudential policy which tames the financial cycle in one country will have positive externalities for the world. 11  Details of the modelling and assumptions used are set out in Technical Appendix 3: Model of international policy reciprocity. As coined by IMF-FSB-BIS (2016). 13 In both cases, if an authority sets a countercyclical buffer greater than 2.5% of risk weighted assets, reciprocity becomes discretionary. 12  5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  5  The changing nature of global capital flows  However, the focus of existing macroprudential tools on banks and banking flows means their ability to mitigate risks from abroad has its limitations. This is particularly true given the changing composition of global capital flows. While cross-border banking flows have declined, international marketable debt flows have increased (Charts 4 and 5).

And were we to further integrate the consideration of the international financial cycle into the setting of domestic macroprudential policies, it would likely improve the available set of outcomes further still. However, the body of evidence required to justify including the interests of other nations in the setting of domestic policy is understandably large, even when the long run benefits would be to all. This is more true now than ever, as the unequal distribution of benefits from globalisation has increased scepticism about international co-operation. The analysis I have outlined today shows that even without consensus around a fully articulated global framework for macroprudential policy, we can make quite a bit of progress by countries pursuing their local national interests. 8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  8  TECHNICAL APPENDICES  1. Foreign credit growth and domestic financial stability Cesa-Bianchi, Eguren Martin and Thwaites (forthcoming) explore the effect of ‘foreign’ credit growth (that is, domestic credit growth in the rest of world) on domestic financial stability. In particular, they look at the effect of foreign credit growth on the probability of experiencing a banking crisis at home. In order to do so, they extend the baseline regression in Schularick and Taylor (2012), which only looks at the effect of domestic credit growth, by also considering its foreign counterpart.
However, excessive reliance on credit cards to finance personal spending leads to problems. We see this internationally, and in Asia too. The credit card crises in Korea in 2003 and Taiwan in 2006, where we saw significant increases in card delinquencies, as well as debt-related crimes and strained family ties, are reminders. 11. We have so far avoided most of these problems in Singapore, despite growing usage of credit cards. We were an early adopter of safeguards to discourage excessive borrowing on credit cards and unsecured credit,1 and cardholders have generally been prudent. •  Credit card outstanding balances are not high by international standards, and the majority of users pay off their credit card bills in full. Compared to 10 years ago, a larger share of total credit card balances is now paid off in full. And bad debts written off from credit cards have remained stable at 4–5% of average rollover balances. 12 Nevertheless, there is a small group of borrowers who have incurred unsustainable credit card and unsecured debts. MAS estimates that about 3% of unsecured credit borrowers have accumulated unsecured debts that exceed their annual incomes. They are mainly not from the lower income group. Close to 65% of these individuals earn incomes above the median, and more than half hold tertiary education qualifications. 13 As CCS has found, people fall into debt problems for various reasons. Over-spending such as on travel and cars, and job-related changes, are the two most common reasons.

(a)  About 1% of total consumer credit is obtained from moneylenders. Although this is a small segment, there is a risk that some borrowers may turn to multiple moneylenders out of desperation. They may take on more debt than they can afford, or be faced with extraordinarily high rates and fees. The Ministry of Law has thus formed an Advisory Committee on Moneylending in June to review the moneylending regulatory regime. Measures being considered include limiting the aggregate amount of loans that a borrower can obtain across multiple moneylenders, restricting the fees charged by moneylenders, and capping the interest rates of loans from moneylenders. (b)  The Ministry of Home Affairs has also stepped up efforts to arrest unlicensed moneylending activities. The number of reported unlicensed moneylending and related harassment cases has declined2 following the enhanced police enforcement and the punitive legal measures introduced in the Moneylenders Act in 2010. Thrust two: help the indebted reduce their debts 17 The second thrust is to help borrowers who are already over-extended, to reduce their debts in an orderly manner. We have to address the legacy debt problems, and help the borrowers who got into this over-extended situation before the recently tightened standards. 18 Many individuals who have been helped by CCS can testify that with resolve and determination, it is possible to overcome serious debt problems. Since CCS’ setup, about 870 individuals counselled by CCS have already fully settled their debts. Many others, aided by CCS, are on their road to recovery.
This has entailed a turnaround in our balance of payment on current account, and will lead in 2013 to a positive contribution of the external sector to GDP of around 2%, the best performance by this variable in recent decades. Competitiveness and export capacity also depend on how productive resources are distributed across sectors and across companies within a single sector. One fundamental challenge the Spanish economy faces is to reallocate the surplus productive resources in non-tradeable sectors to others with higher growth and export potential. At the aggregate level, 8% of the firms existing in 2007 have been destroyed in the 2007–2012 period, while in the construction sector this figure exceeds 30%. In the industrial and services sectors, and having due regard to their high heterogeneity, positive signs are discernible. The sectoral reallocation is only just beginning and still has a long way to run. Economic policy has to contribute to completing this process by removing the obstacles associated with barriers to competition and the red tape hindering business start-ups. Some recent legislative initiatives which pursue these objectives are the law on business support measures, the law to ensure market unity and the future law on professional services and colleges. Market unity and legal certainty are absolutely necessary for sustained growth and job creation, and can and should be objectives shared by government at all levels. Another task is that of completing the adjustment of Spanish corporate and household debt.

But it should be acknowledged that they have undertaken what are, in many cases, politically difficult and technically complex reforms. Irrespective of the identifiable aspects of these reforms that could be improved, they have prevented the situation from worsening considerably and have laid the foundations for the incipient recovery we are witnessing today. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  In this respect, let me begin by mentioning the role of the European Central Bank which, in my opinion, has successfully lived up to its responsibilities. From the onset of the crisis, the ECB applied a series of measures with a three-pronged aim: to relax the monetary policy stance in order to accommodate it to the cyclical circumstances of the economy; to prevent liquidity tensions from triggering bouts of instability that would have compounded the loss of output and employment; and, at the height of the tensions, to dispel the risk of the euro area potentially breaking up, a risk that was very real in 2012. The monetary policy measures adopted involved both conventional actions and exceptional measures, tailored to the circumstances experienced over the course of the crisis. As regards conventional measures, the ECB has progressively cut official interest rates, placing them at an all-time low 400 bp below the September 2008 levels. As you know, the latest cut was just a week ago.