samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It could possibly be helpful in such situations to also show expected CPI inflation in a time perspective that is long enough to allow all temporary effects to have dissipated fully. It would then be clearer that the analysis of inflationary developments in terms of different adjusted measures was being done for instructive reasons. In that way it should be possible to avoid the risk of interpretations that we had “changed target variable.” Such an approach would also be consistent with the clarification from 1999, which says that the Riksbank should explain in advance how large a deviation from the inflation target defined in terms of the CPI that can be justified one to two years ahead. It would be possible to illustrate clearly both the size of the target deviation during the normal forecast horizon and the fact that inflation was expected to be back on target in the not too distant future. Allow me to elucidate my train of thought with an example. Suppose that as a result of some shock the inflation rate after 1.5 years is forecast to rise from 2 to 3 per cent. The shock is assumed to be such that it, after its occurrence, affects inflation for only one year. One example of a shock with such a time profile is an expected rise in VAT, which raises the price level permanently but only affects the 12-month change in the CPI one year ahead. Another example is an increase in an excise duty, for example tobacco tax.

Mandated with this role, the Bank of Albania has approved several regulations focusing on microfinance institutions and development. This regulatory framework, comprises the supervisory requirements to start and operate a Saving and Loan association, the indicators that enable their reporting and their financial analysis, and the principles based on which the on-site examination of such institutions occurs. The regulation of the Bank of Albania “On licensing the Savings and Loans Associations and their Unions”, is the first document issued by the Bank of Albania in this area, representing a big step forward into the formalization of these institutions. It defines the documentation requirements for the license application, the deadlines and the authority that should grant the license. These requirements are directed to the single associations, to the Union, and to the Union member association. It has been recognized the role of representing Union proposed member associations in the licensing process, meant also as an important tool to induce single SLA to become Union members. The number of the Unions is certainly not limited. The other important regulation is that of “The Supervision of Savings and Loan Associations and their Unions”. In this regulation, the Bank of Albania has defined supervisory indicators for certain typologies of risk that are characteristic of current stage of development of the microfinance institutions in Albania. Counterparty risk is assessed through the requirements for a consistent process of loan portfolio analysis.
Of course, there are alternative measures of inflation, such as the widely reported Consumer Price Index (CPI). The FOMC has set its inflation target in terms of the PCE Price index because relative to the CPI it covers a wider range of items that households consume and because it better adjusts for changes in the spending patterns of households. CPI inflation is currently around 2 percent. But CPI inflation generally runs three to five tenths of a percentage point higher than PCE inflation, and so the CPI’s performance should be measured against a higher inflation objective, such as 2-1/2 percent. So, an inflation gap remains for the CPI as well. Looking ahead, I am concerned about the possibility that inflation will not return to our 2 percent target within a reasonable period of time. First, recent monthly inflation numbers have been low, so there is not much upward momentum. Second, as I mentioned earlier, wage growth has been relatively low for some time. While wages don’t predict future inflation, the two often move together. So the subpar growth in wages we see today is consistent with continued subdued inflation. And, third, it does not appear as if inflationary expectations are exerting much of an upward pull on actual inflation at the moment. That said, I expect inflation to rise slowly over the next three years toward the FOMC’s 2 percent target.

And as I mentioned earlier, I am expecting further improvements in economic activity, with real GDP growing at around 3 percent over the next 18 months and the unemployment rate declining further to a little over 5 percent by the end of 2016 – in line with what I think is its long-run neutral level. So I do see us getting back close to our policy goals over the next two to three years. A balanced approach to monetary policy It is important for me to say that this forecast is predicated on the assumption that the FOMC takes a very patient approach to reducing policy accommodation. Let me elaborate on why I think this is appropriate. I see two important and divergent ways my forecast could go wrong. One is that I may be overestimating the underlying strength in the real economy, so that a successful and sustained exit from the ZLB may be more difficult than I currently believe. Guarding against this risk calls for a more patient removal of accommodation. The second is that I may be  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  wrong about the inflation outlook, and we could be poised for a much larger rise in inflation than I am forecasting. This risk calls for more aggressive rate hikes. How do I think policy should balance these divergent risks? How should they affect the FOMC’s strategy of pursuing a balanced approach to achieving our policy goals?
But the growth of financial firms active across different business lines and national boundaries does make designing policies to address systemic risks more challenging. Let me conclude by highlighting some actions we can take to guard against such risk. First, there is scope for more private and public sector cooperation on stress-testing. There is room to develop further our analysis of the combined effects of market and credit risk on the balance sheets of financial firms and at a system-wide level. And it is important that macroeconomic stress scenarios do not blindly extrapolate from the robust economic performance of recent years. The FSA is reviewing stress-testing practices of UK firms as part of a campaign to identify and encourage best practices. Of course each firm needs to tailor its tests to its own business, but I believe that there may also be merit in looking at a common set of plausible scenarios. This would help compare risk profiles and publishing these results could potentially strengthen market discipline. Second, efforts are underway to improve further liquidity risk management. The fundamental reforms to the sterling money market introduced in May should make for greater flexibility in the day-to-day management of sterling liquidity, and help ease potential liquidity bottlenecks in times of stress. 7 These changes build on the lessons of the Federal Reserve’s discount window in US dollars and the ECB’s marginal lending facility in euros. Handling potential liquidity pressures faced by LCFIs operating in multiple countries and currencies continues to be a focus of policy attention.

What about the funds earmarked under the second plan to support the Greek banks? That money, € billion, disappears with the stopping of the programme, on Tuesday evening, as does all assistance for Greece which was still available but conditional on the implementation of the programme. The ECB has maintained its emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to the banks. Did the question of its withdrawal come up last weekend? The ECB acts within its regulatory framework. We can offer emergency liquidity assistance to the banks provided that they are solvent, the collateral submitted is of good quality, and that the ELA doesn’t interfere with the ECB’s monetary policy. Until Sunday these conditions were met. It was found at the same time that the creditworthiness of the Greek government was seriously degraded, particularly after the Eurogroup’s decision to withdraw the safety net granted to Greece. That led to us not authorising new drawdowns from the central bank, while maintaining the current level of liquidity. I regard this as a measured decision as it does not create an irreversible situation. Are you going to continue providing support to the banks until Sunday evening? We are going to continue the support until further notice. The situation is being constantly monitored by the Governing Council. What is the ECB’s exposure to Greece? On the one hand, there are the loans extended to Greek banks by the Eurosystem, with a total value of more than € billion.
The second risk is that the United States will not rise to its fiscal policy challenges, which could hamper the continued strengthening of the global economy. Let me discuss these risks in more detail. A third risk that is often discussed concerns the slowdown on the Chinese property market. I shall not go into this in any great depth here; I shall merely note that if property prices were to fall uncontrollably, China has the scope to implement fiscal and monetary policy stimulation, in that they have a low national debt of around 25 per cent of GDP and a high policy rate of almost 7 per cent. 1 The debate on the Chinese economy is otherwise often fairly categorical. It concerns either overheating or an imminent crash. If we look back at earlier developments, we can see that they have successfully managed to avoid both of these extremes. My assessment is that there is good scope for them to do so this time, too. The euro area – prolonged deleveraging In the euro area, it is mainly the Greek debt that has received attention. But, as well all know, other euro area countries have also suffered debt problems; for instance, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Italy also has a high national debt, but this is a problem it has had for a long time. The following figure shows how public debt as a percentage of GDP has developed in these countries and the IMF’s forecast until the end of 2017.

The relatively low participation of takaful operators in international business, is however set to change with the recently announced MIFC initiatives, to allow qualified local and foreign financial institutions to conduct the full range of Islamic banking and takaful businesses in foreign currencies. It was also announced in the recent budget that attractive tax packages in terms of 10 year tax holiday are given to all takaful operators on their international currencies takaful business. In addition, MIFC accords greater operational flexibility for the Islamic financial institutions to conduct Islamic financial services in foreign currencies from anywhere in Malaysia. To ensure effective delivery system under MIFC initiatives, the MIFC Executive Committee, with Bank Negara Malaysia as secretariat, has been set up to provide directions and drive implementation of policies and strategies to foster effectiveness and efficiency of the MIFC. Well capitalised and reputable financial institutions that possess sound track record are encouraged to set up international takaful operation in Malaysia to conduct out-out takaful and retakaful businesses. The Malaysian takaful operators should seize the opportunity to venture into out-out takaful business establishing an international currency business unit to offer takaful business in international currencies. Ladies and gentlemen, In tandem with the rapid changes and expansion of the Islamic financial sector, it is vital for us to have a strong, continuous support in talent management and development. Towards this end, several initiatives in regards to sustaining and improving the level of expertise in the industry have been put in place.
But if they are not adequately addressed - whether within the system as a whole or at the level of the individual market or individual firm - they could - like purely financial failures - weaken public confidence or attract public responses, which would have a damaging effect on overall activity. Mr Chairman, I can’t imagine that anyone working in the City will become bored as we move into the new millennium in the face of these challenges. How successful we are in confronting them will depend, as in the past, upon the interaction of the technical and professional skills and self-discipline of the market and the structure, substance and application of the rules of the game as they are reflected in public policy. We have unique experience within the City on which to build. The market has repeatedly demonstrated its capacity to respond successfully to new challenges and currently attracts representatives of the strongest participants from all parts of the world. It is supported by very highly qualified professionals and professional bodies which play an important role in setting and maintaining standards. It is supported, too, by an extraordinary range of specialist professional and technical organisations, which help to ensure that the rules of the game are sensibly formulated and clearly understood.

And, whatever the periodic outcry whenever something goes wrong - as it will from time to time - the demand for these services does not of course exist in a vacuum; it exists because of the very positive contribution that the business services sectors, including financial services, make to growth and employment and rising living standards in the wider economy. That is true nationally, but it is equally true in a global context. Indeed the unique characteristic of the City is its role as the predominant international financial centre. It accounts for a fifth of all international cross-border lending, for example; for a third of global turnover in foreign exchange and OTC derivatives, and as much as two-thirds of issuance and secondary trading in eurobonds, or of global turnover in international equities, with more foreign firms listed on the LSE than on any other exchange. And London has a near-monopoly in exchange-traded short-term euro interest rate derivatives. I will not labour the point further, Mr Chairman. Despite - or perhaps driven by - a continuous stream of shocks and competitive challenges, the City has in fact gone from strength to strength, most recently coming through the global financial turbulence of the last couple of years as well as the advent of the euro at least as strong as before. It is perhaps worth asking why the City is as strong as it is. Certainly it does have to do partly with history.
That, of course, is why the respective supervisors need to take an interest in all parts of a financial group and in intra-group exposures. But none of this, it seems to me, means that long-term savings institutions have taken on the distinctive special characteristics of banks. So far, I would hope, so good in the sense that perhaps most of you would agree that this particular distinction remains. But have I chosen this extreme example as an Aunt Sally? Well perhaps to a degree I have. So let me take some less obvious cases. What about money-market mutual funds, for example? Surely they at least have some of the characteristics of banks? They, too, act as a repository for liquidity and it is possible to make payments from some of them, which looks very like a banking arrangement? And so it does.

Therefore, we envisage no significant pressure on unit labor costs in the upcoming period. In light of these assessments, our revised inflation forecasts are based on a framework in which domestic demand is stronger compared to the previous period, external demand continues to restrain domestic economic activity, and thus aggregate demand conditions continue to support disinflation, albeit to a lesser degree. 10  BIS Review 159/2010  As for fiscal policy, MTP (Medium-Term Program) projections revised in October constitute the basis of our forecasts. In this respect, we envisage a temporary acceleration in public expenditures for the rest of the year, to be followed by a gradual decline in the ratio of primary expenditures to national income starting from 2011. We also assume that any fiscal space that may arise due to stronger-than-expected economic activity would partially be used to reduce government debt stock, congruent to the counter-cyclical fiscal policy approach. It was envisaged that the ratio of debt stock to GDP would continue to decline and no significant change would be observed in the risk premium throughout the forecast horizon. Moreover, our forecasts are based on the assumption that tax adjustments would be consistent with the inflation targets and automatic pricing mechanisms. Distinguished members of the press, Important developments since the July Inflation Report warranted a revision of the assumptions, which our forecasts are based on. I would like to provide some detailed information on these factors to ensure that our forecasts are better understood.
Indsutry  Construction  Services  Net Tax  GDP  Private Consumption  Private Public Public Stock Investment Consumption Investment Change  Net Export  Source: TURKSTAT. Turkey’s export performance has become more vulnerable to global cyclical changes in recent years as the share of durables and capital goods in our exports has increased over time. In fact, the significant slowdown in our major trading partners and the consequent contraction in exports were among the determinants of the sharp downturn in aggregate demand. Therefore, the assumptions on the global economy with respect to the inflation and monetary policy outlook presented in the Inflation Report that will be posted on our Website shortly are very important. The impact of the global financial turmoil in the corporate sector has become more evident and global growth has significantly contracted. The credit crunch in international credit markets still persists and there is yet to be a notable improvement in global economic indicators. Our baseline scenario in the January Inflation Report envisaged a gradual recovery in the global economy as of early 2010. On the back of the deepening global financial turmoil in the past period, many international institutions revised their growth forecasts for 2009 and 2010 downwards by a significant margin (Table 3). The forecasts for global economic activity, which were revised in the last three months, indicate a sharper contraction for 2009 compared to our forecasts presented in the January Inflation Report and a slower and more gradual recovery throughout 2010.

In spite of a limited rebound in credits recently, we believe there is little chance for this move to become a permanent recovery as long as the global economy is not stabilized (Figure 19). Figure 19: Commercial and Consumer Loans (4 Week Moving Average, Percent) 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 Commercial Credits -1.5  01 08  02 08  03 08  04 08  05 08  06 08  07 08  Consumer Credits 08 08  09 08  10 08  11 08  12 08  01 09  02 09  03 09  Source: CBT. Distinguished Members of the Press, In the first quarter of 2009, the sharp contraction in global economic activity and its larger than anticipated impact on domestic activity called for a downward revision of the outlook for aggregate demand developments from the previous reporting period. In the January Inflation Report, economic activity was expected to display a significant decline in the last quarter of 2008, while it was anticipated that the speed of contraction would start to lose pace during the first quarter of 2009. In line with expectations, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) displayed a sizeable drop in the last quarter of 2008 on a quarterly and on an annual basis (Figures 20 and 21). Recent readings suggest that economic activity will display a sharperthan-envisaged slowdown and that the contraction in the economy in the first quarter of the year will register double-digit figures.
François Villeroy de Galhau: Franco-German experiences and challenges in the euro era  relations  -  Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Europadialog, organized by the Investitions- und Strukturbank Rheinland-Pfalz (ISB), Mainz, 21 March 2017. * * * Madam Minister-President [Ms Dreyer], Madam Finance Minister [Ms Ahnen], Mr Spokesperson [M. Dexheimer], Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted to be here with you today in Mainz, and I sincerely thank you for inviting me. On a more personal note, I am here as a committed European and a friend of Germany. I am particularly attached to the Franco-German friendship: I am French and live in Paris, but my family’s roots are in a neighbouring Land, Saarland, where my family has lived since the end of the 18th century and where its porcelain manufacturing company Villeroy & Boch forms part of the German “Mittelstand”. When I spend my holidays in Saarland and I go north, I admire Trier; or east, Neustadt an der Weinstraße. And when I come fortnightly to participate in the ECB Governing Council, I am very close to your beautiful town of Mainz. There is no doubt in my mind that “we, the citizens of the European Union, have united for the better”, as stated in the Berlin declaration of 25 March 2007. This was for the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, and this is still just as true four days before we celebrate its 60th anniversary.

Encik Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour: Revolutionising Microfinance Welcoming remarks by Mr Encik Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Global Symposium on Microfinance, Kuala Lumpur, 22 May 2017. * * * In biology, the transformation of a species is said to happen in rapid bursts. Imagine an ecosystem of marine life along a shoreline. For millions of years, it can remain relatively unchanged. But an extraordinary event – such as a sudden move in sea levels – can alter everything quickly. Within decades, fishes, mollusks and plants alike can dramatically change in size and shape. Ultimately, those that adapt emerge as the stronger species in the ecosystem. We are gathered here today in the very different context of microfinance. Nonetheless, parallels can be drawn with the theme of this event, ”Revolutionising Microfinance”. Think of the incredible pace of technological change in recent years. In 2016 alone, machine prevailed over man in the world’s hardest board game. Reusable rockets became a reality. Twitter helped a nation elect their president. For microfinance, that rapid burst of change is already upon us. It is therefore a great honour for Bank Negara Malaysia to partner with the World Bank in hosting this Global Symposium on Microfinance. We are privileged to have so many learned speakers here with us to share their invaluable insights.