Rates are considerably lower in Sweden (4.25), Denmark (3.50) and Finland (3.25). Wage developments over the last few years can contribute to explaining the differences. In Norway wage growth has been high over the last five years, reflecting a tight labour market. Looking at data for wage growth from the OECD, the ranking of interest rate levels in the Nordic region corresponds to the ranking of average wage growth since 1998. The Norwegian krone has appreciated by around 15 per cent since mid-2000. Seen over a longer period, the krone has been rather stable. The present level is only around 6 per cent stronger than in 1990. Over this longer period, other Nordic currencies have shown larger fluctuations. Over the last two years, the appreciation of the Norwegian krone has been driven by the wide and increased interest rate differential between Norway and other countries. The interest rate differential reflects high growth in wages and aggregate demand in Norway. There is thus a clear link between cost pressures in the Norwegian economy and the exchange rate. The link works through interest rate expectations driving the krone upwards. The appreciation of the krone has a dampening effect on inflation. At the same time, profitability in the internationally exposed sector is under pressure both due to higher wage costs and the appreciation of the krone. But the krone can move in both directions. It will not appreciate indefinitely. If the krone follows the path of the forward rate, it will depreciate in the years ahead.

And if the advanced countries’ consumption stops growing, what will happen to global economic growth and particularly that of emerging countries with entirely export-oriented economies? Which brings me to my third remark: we need the emerging countries to continue investing their savings in advanced countries. We therefore need properly functioning international financial markets. In a world where the savings and financing needs are so geographically dislocated, properly functioning financial markets are a prerequisite for economic growth. But, today the capital markets appear very unsettled and full of anomalies, and not just in Europe. •  For example, certain sovereigns (the USA and UK for example) borrow today at historically very low nominal interest rates and at negative real interest rates despite the fact that their deficits are around 10% of GNP and that doubts exist regarding the future evolution of their debt levels. •  Another anomaly: large corporations have accumulated unprecedented cash reserves (several trillions of dollars) despite numerous highly profitable and unexploited investment opportunities around the world, unsatisfied infrastructure needs and investment bottlenecks in commodities production. Fourth remark. We can identify two reasons for this situation: •  The first is the general and exceptional uncertainty weighing on the global economy. Uncertainty makes liquid and safe assets more attractive. It makes investment less attractive. It can therefore partly explain the phenomena that I have mentioned. •  The second reason is more structural: a malfunctioning of our financial intermediation mechanisms. There are doubts about the solidity of banks in numerous countries.