samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Several factors suggest that these developments are not purely cyclical. On the demand side, estimates by the ECB, as well as the IMF and the European Commission, suggest that – with the exception of Greece – the majority of current account adjustment in deficit countries has been “non-cyclical”.3 “Non-cyclical”, however, does not mean “structural”. What it means is simply that, though falling demand did depress imports during the crisis, potential growth has fallen as well. Thus, when the output gap closes, current account positions should not substantially worsen. “Non-cyclical”, however, does not mean “structural”. What it means is simply that, though falling demand did depress imports during the crisis, potential growth has fallen as well. Thus, when the output gap closes, current account positions should not substantially worsen. On the supply side, there is also evidence of structural shifts in deficit countries that should help sustain their export performance. Cost competitiveness – measured in terms of real effective exchange rates deflated by unit labour costs (ULCs) – has improved strongly since the start of the crisis. In most cases real effective exchange rates now stand close to 1999 levels or even below. That suggests much of the pre-crisis “excesses” have been reversed. To give some examples, in Ireland the improvement in cost competitiveness from peak to trough is close to 50 percentage points. In Greece and Latvia the figure is around 30 percentage points.

Emerging market economies in Asia, Europe and Latin America have accounted for an increasing share of global output. Several hundred million people have been lifted out of poverty. So what went wrong? Or in the words of Rimbereid: “And the cause of the depression? Theories conflict, as if surrounding a virus not yet discovered. Was it due to the far too unrestricted life of share trading? Or was it because the hand of the state constantly interfered with its unnatural contagion? Or did the virus worm its way into the calculating machine itself?” 4  4  6  Øyvind Rimbereid (2008): Herbarium, p.56. (Unofficial translation by Norges Bank’s translators). BIS Review 16/2009  Substantial trade imbalances developed between industrialised countries, particularly the US, on the one hand and emerging market economies, particularly China, on the other. This is partly due to government budget deficits and low private saving in the US since the 1990s, and partly due to export-led growth in China, particularly over the past few years, combined with strong competitiveness and a managed exchange rate. In short, rich countries borrowed and developing countries saved. The imbalances grew when oil and other commodity prices rose markedly. Financial market participants found it too difficult to channel capital. Longterm interest rates were too low, the search for yield too aggressive and compensation for risk-taking too meagre. With long-term loans in ample supply, demand for residential and other property became excessive in almost the entire western world.
At the same time, the long-standing challenges to promote access to basic financial services and improve financial literacy of the people at large remain our priorities. For this reason, we need to redouble our efforts to enhance our banking, finance and technological know-how. We also need to make sure that a wealth of knowledge and experiences is effectively shared among members of the CLMVT. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  The last one is to leverage on specialized financial services that some of our members are ready to offer. For Thailand, progress has been made to create financial ecosystem to meet growing regional demand for specialized financial services. In the capital market, Thailand allows entities from CLMV countries to raise funds from the Thai capital market with the introduction of more accommodative rules on capital account and taxation. Since 2013, the Lao government and firms from Lao PDR have issued baht-denominated bonds, worth 28 billion baht in total, to support large-scale infrastructure projects. In addition, the Bank of Thailand supports multinational corporations operating in the region to establish regional treasury centers in Thailand. As of now, there are 13 companies holding Treasury Center licenses, of which 4 have been granted in the past 3 months. Ladies and Gentlemen, The work to develop domestic financial sectors and strengthen financial connectivity will always be a work in progress. The Bank of Thailand is committed to working with our counterparts in CLMV countries to develop the financial industry and enhance regional financial integration.

The higher productivity growth is instead due to an unusually large rise in total factor productivity, which is usually ascribed to technological and organisational improvements. Historically, the broader impact of technological changes has lagged since it takes time to adapt an organisation and technology to each other in order to fully take advantage of the innovations. It is therefore possible that the large-scale investment in ICT at the end of the 1990s is only now beginning to make a clear impact in the form of organisational improvements, cost cutting and higher productivity growth. In addition, ICT developments have led, by enabling more efficient production in networks and at a distance, to new sectors in the service industries being opened to trade and international competition. Another important factor in this process is the increasingly strong interaction between ICT, trade and product markets, which enables outsourcing of labour-intensive stages of goods and services production to low-wage countries. 3. Globalisation and the structural changes in the world economy  The access to new information technology is thus one of the conditions for the new trade and production patterns that are emerging.
The underlying picture now appears to be one of gently rising household spending. This is being supported by highly accommodative credit conditions and now-positive growth in inflation-adjusted wages. And then, of course, there is the World Cup. Without wishing to tempt fate, England’s recent sporting success on the football field (and cricket pitch) has probably added to that feel-good factor among Englandsupporting consumers. The “smile count” on my recent visits to Wales and Scotland was also as high as I can remember, although I suspect that may have been the weather rather than the football. Of course, there are always some data – and, indeed, some football teams – which disappoint to the downside. That is what data does. But waiting for something to turn up is not a prudent strategy in life. And 19  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  19  waiting for everything to turn up is certainly not a prudent strategy for monetary policy. That is why the MPC has signalled, and I have voted for, a modest reduction in monetary stimulus provided the economy evolves as expected. Monetary policy guidance like this is not unconditional; it depends, as it should, on how the economy performs. From my conversations with household and businesses, such guidance is both understood and helpful to them when planning their spending and borrowing.

Therefore, it was opted to establish this conditionality and to promote an integration process designed to bring about sizes that would enable the institutions to be more efficient and to more readily obtain funding from the markets; to implement capacity-reduction plans; to introduce management changes; to write down balance sheets with a charge to private funds; to convert savings banks into banks, and to raise capital on the markets. True, a plan of this scale and complexity does not enable difficulties to be overcome overnight. Yet it is not an overstatement to say that, once the process has been concluded, it will have brought about a reform that should be valid for many years. Let’s now look at our economy’s biggest problem: the difficulties our legal and institutional framework poses for job creation and which mean that, even in good times, Spain is one of the countries with the highest unemployment rates in the world. Earlier I referred to the importance of identifying and acknowledging problems. It suffices to look at the figures available and, in particular, at our very high unemployment rate – at 21.3% – to see that we have a serious home-grown problem, stemming from the shortcomings of our legal and institutional framework. Pick up a copy of The Economist and go to the final pages, where there is a table with the economic data for the 40 biggest economies in the world.
3  See inter alia Report No. 29 (2000–2001) to the Storting, Guidelines for economic policy, Ministry of Finance, and the Regulation on Monetary Policy of 29 March 2001. BIS Review 147/2010  1  That it is tempting, but dangerous, for a government to focus on short-term gains was a lesson Greek politicians learned this spring. Government spending exceeded revenues over a long period. Accounts and official statistics were fudged. Politicians may have hoped to secure a quick admission for Greece into the euro area, with the advantages this would bring. They may have also believed that high government spending and low taxes might help their re-election prospects. Instead, they now have to steer the country through harsh reforms and substantial cuts. 4 The Norwegian economist Finn Kydland received the Nobel Prize for economics in 2004 for having shown that on the whole, monetary policy decisions are better if policymakers delegate interest rate setting to an independent central bank under a clear mandate. 5 As a central bank we must adhere to the mandate we have been given and be able to set the key rate based on a professional assessment. 6 This is a system that lays a solid foundation for making good decisions. 3. We make decisions under uncertainty  Independence alone does not guarantee good decisions. Even if an independent central bank is better positioned to avoid having short-term expediency and changing preferences dictate interest rate policy, its decisions must be made under considerable uncertainty.

In other areas of society, it is not always the case that those who are qualified to make good decisions also have the power to implement them. In the interest of democratic governance there may be good reasons why this is so, but the decision-making process will then require considerable attention. We can concentrate on promoting an understanding of the decisions we make. We must be transparent about what we do, and explain premises, economic relationships and results. Our decisions must be well communicated and understood. If we are unsuccessful in this respect, our reputation may be impaired. Independence, transparency and good decisions are intertwined. Independence is a precondition for keeping promises. Keeping promises was the topic of my lecture here two years ago. 38 We must also communicate and explain interest rate decisions to the public so that they have confidence that we are discharging our duties properly. Transparency is a precondition for accountability and that was the topic of my lecture here last year. 39 Today I have been speaking about how we can arrive at decisions that are good ones. Adequate institutional arrangements, high-quality professionals and appropriate routines are important elements for doing just that. Hans Rasmus Astrup died in 1898, twelve years after this building was completed. Astrup’s two daughters sold the house to the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters a few years after their father’s passing. They gave the Academy a gift of 106,000 kroner to go towards buying the house. The remaining funds were raised from donations.
Calibrating PEPP This brings me to the second question – the calibration of the PEPP. By removing duration risk from the market, PEPP reduces the bond free-float ratio –the share of bonds that need to be held by private price-sensitive investors relative to total bond supply (see left chart on Slide 8). In the absence of our new measures, this ratio would have gradually increased on the back of the large coronavirus-induced increase in debt issuance, thereby putting upward pressure on bond yields. The PEPP envelope has been calibrated with a view to restoring and preserving financial conditions that are consistent with bringing inflation back to the pre-COVID-19 inflation path. The evidence speaks for itself. Upon the announcement of the PEPP, and again in response to our actions last week, the euro area GDP-weighted yield curve has shifted downward measurably, and today it is not far from the level we observed before the outbreak of the crisis (see right chart on Slide 8). In view of the historically weak inflation outlook and the already accommodative stance, the question arises whether our actions are sufficient and proportionate. In answering this question, the Governing Council assesses whether the benefits of achieving a faster return of inflation to levels closer to 2% outweigh the potentially adverse side effects. In other words, it assesses how long the “medium term” should be, given current circumstances.

Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus: Launch of the Joint Report on naturerelated financial risks in Malaysia Speech by Ms Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the launch of the joint report with the World Bank “Exploring nature-related financial risks in Malaysia”, Kuala Lumpur, 15 March 2022. * * * Good morning and welcome to today’s launch of our joint report with the World Bank, Exploring Nature-related Financial Risks in Malaysia. Over the last three years, the Malaysian financial sector has stepped up its response to the urgent and existential threat posed by climate and environment-related risks. Joint efforts by regulators and the industry to better understand, assess and manage climaterelated risks have made substantial progress. In the Financial Sector Blueprint 2022–2026 recently released by Bank Negara Malaysia, we further reiterated our vision, and expectations, for the financial system to facilitate an orderly transition, towards a greener economy. The financial sector has a crucial role to play in this. To that end, key tools and frameworks are being put in place to: (i) channel financial flows and increase funding solutions towards a greener economy; (ii) strengthen supervisory oversight and address the appropriate treatment of climate and environment-related risks in prudential frameworks; and (iii) address knowledge and data gaps around these risks. Even as we continue to move these priorities forward, we are aware that climate change is not a standalone environmental threat.
The Committee has also indicated that it will take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of its purchases when adjusting their size, pace, and composition. While noting that purchase activity will depend on these factors, the  1  The FOMC also directed the Desk to reinstate its previous policy of rolling over maturing Treasury holdings into new issues. See the Desk’s Frequently Asked Questions for more information. In practice, the amount of maturing proceeds will be quite small, since securities maturing within the next three years were sold as part of the MEP  2  This excludes about $ billion of MBS trades scheduled to settle in the future. 3  I would like to thank members of the Markets Group Staff, including Katherine Femia, Lorie Logan, Linsey Molloy, Roman Shimonov, and Nathaniel Wuerffel, who contributed to the preparation of these remarks. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Committee has not specified the time at which purchases will be complete or the total expected size of the purchases. Instead, under this conditional, outcome-based approach, the Committee has enacted a policy that will adjust to incoming information about labor market conditions and the broader economy, as well as its ongoing assessment of the efficacy and costs of purchases. Retaining the flexibility to adjust purchases is an important feature of the program, given our relatively limited experience with the use of the balance sheet as a monetary policy tool and the uncertainty about the policy’s effects.

BANK Of ZAMBIA  CYBER SECURITY IN THE FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR WORKSHOP  SPEECH BY DR. DENNY H. KALYALYA GOVERNOR – BANK OF ZAMBIA  MONDAY, 6th MAY 2019 INTERCONTINENTAL HOTEL, LUSAKA, ZAMBIA  CYBER SECURITY IN THE FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR WORKSHOP, SPEECH BY DR. DENNY H. KALYALYA, GOVERNOR – BANK OF ZAMBIA – 6 MAY 2019  Chief Executives of Financial Institutions in Zambia, Representatives from MEFMI, Members of staff from Bank of Zambia and other Financial Institutions Distinguished Resource Persons, Dear Participants, Ladies and Gentlemen. I am honoured to welcome you all to this important workshop on “Cyber Security in the Financial Services Sector”, which is being jointly conducted by the Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa (MEFMI) and the Bank of Zambia. This workshop aims to discuss financial sector vulnerabilities arising from cyber threats and risks and to develop the necessary skills and tools to make the sector resilient. Let me take this opportunity to extend a special welcome to our facilitator Dr. Rukanda. I am sure the delegates will greatly benefit from your experience and vast knowledge on the subject. Ladies and gentlemen, as you are all aware, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) have over the years permeated all aspects of our lives and in particular, have become the mainstay of the world’s financial sector infrastructure.
In this regard, the UK starts from a vulnerable position with household debt at 140% of disposable income.6 There are some signs that underwriting standards are becoming more lax, with the proportion of new mortgages at high loan-to-income ratios now at an all-time high.7 The increase in house prices in the past year means we can expect the proportion of high loan-toincome mortgages to grow further in the coming year even if the housing market begins to slow. This is concerning because a durable expansion requires mortgages to be serviceable over their lifetime not just when interest rates are at record lows. The vulnerabilities associated with debt build up over longer periods than the ups and downs with which monetary policy is usually concerned. In that sense, the credit and business cycles are distinct. Using monetary policy now to target indebtedness would risk undershooting the inflation target and damaging growth. For all of these reasons, monetary policy is the last line of defence against financial instability. Raising interest rates today would be the wrong response to this potential vulnerability tomorrow. Fortunately, we are not up the proverbial creek without a paddle. We have many of them which we can use to steer towards two objectives. The first is to ensure that the banking system is resilient. To that end, the Bank is conducting a stress test to assess how well major banks and building societies can withstand a sharp housing market correction during a prolonged and painful recession.

Rather than appeal to the stately Duchess of York on which my predecessor sailed, I will look to the trusty canoe – a craft that can navigate the most rapid and treacherous waters…provided its paddlers work in sync. Those economic currents are flowing swiftly, with the economy expanding at an annualised rate of 4% and jobs growing at a record pace.2 But there are rapids ahead, with old imbalances persisting and new ones emerging. The economy is still over-levered. The housing market is showing the potential to overheat. And the current account deficit is now at a record level. Navigating these hazards requires close coordination between all those in the boat; that is, between fiscal, monetary and prudential authorities. Tonight I want to explain the Bank’s contribution to delivering a durable expansion characterised by balance in the macroeconomy, the housing market, and the financial sector. Before doing so, I would like to join the Chancellor in paying tribute to two individuals. The first is Sir David Lees, who as Chairman of Court has overseen the transformation of the governance and responsibilities of the Bank. David, I am extremely grateful for your support during my first year as Governor. I’m also enormously grateful for the wise counsel of Charlie Bean during the past year. Always working, Charlie is tonight discharging his duties as President of the Royal Economic Society. Throughout his career, at the Treasury, in academia and at the Bank, Charlie has been a leading thinker and practitioner in the pursuit of macroeconomic balance.
In this connection, it should be emphasized that, because of the inherently partisan nature of politics, and for other reasons as well, the government or state is not well-equipped to make credit decisions. Recent experience here in Asia, and before that in the former command economies of Eastern Europe, makes clear just how dangerous “policy lending” can be. Decisions as to who gets credit and who does not must be left to private initiative within a context where those making the decisions have a major stake - their own capital and economic livelihood. If the system is working properly, those receiving credit will be the most efficient, competitive, and profitable - those most capable of producing the stream of goods and services that will enable the economy to grow and, as a result, for living standards to rise. The purpose of supervision - preserving financial stability This, then, is the fundamental tension of commercial banking - how to meet the credit needs of a healthy and expanding market economy, which necessarily entails the taking of calculated risks, and yet preserve the confidence of depositors whose savings are the raw material that enable banks to perform their essential functions. Negotiating that tension, helping banks meet that challenge, is the critical task of supervision. And so what is the purpose of supervision in the 21st century? What are the objectives? How can those objectives be best pursued? Let me say first of all that there is no quick-fix or single answer.

In turn, this means that a country-specific shock will be harder to handle for stabilisation policy. However, large asymmetric shocks occur fairly seldom, no more than a handful of times in the course of a century and as long as the shock – be it of internal or external origin – affects all countries within the monetary union, this poses less of a problem since the common monetary policy can respond to such a shock. If the monetary union also has a floating exchange rate, it will act as an automatic stabiliser. The principal gains to be anticipated from joining a monetary union come from an improved functioning of the economy and an increase in foreign trade. A common currency means greater price transparency and therefore stiffer competition in, primarily, markets for tradables. In a country with a floating exchange rate, small- and medium-sized companies often find it too costly to hedge against currency risk when exporting or importing. When joining a monetary union, the absence of currency risk provides a greater incentive to trade, an incentive that will grow with the size of the union. Also, a common currency means that transaction costs for currency trading disappear. 1  Already Mundell (1961) noted that “[e]xcept in areas where national sovereignty is being given up it is not feasible to suggest that currencies should be reorganized…” (p.664). BIS Review 73/2006  1  However, when a country is weighing loss against gain, both are difficult to quantify.