samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Ravi Menon: Economic and financial developments in Singapore Opening remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), at the MAS’ Annual Report 2010/11 Press Conference, Singapore, 21 July 2011. *  *  *  Good morning. Welcome to MAS’ Annual Report press conference. I want to focus on four key themes with a forward looking orientation: first, prospects for GDP growth, second, the outlook for inflation, third, MAS’ financial accounts, and fourth, maintaining high standards of financial regulation. Let me begin with the economy. Singapore’s GDP growth forecast range remains at 5–7% for now, but uncertainties have clearly increased. As you know, economic growth took a sharp step-down in Q2 following the strong performance in Q1. First, disruption to regional supply chains in the aftermath of the Japan earthquake was much more severe than expected. Second, the rise in oil prices due to the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa has put a dampener on global demand. Singapore’s trade-related sectors bore the brunt of impact. Both manufacturing output and re-exports saw sequential declines in Q2. In year-on-year terms, GDP growth averaged 4.7% in the first half of this year. Looking at the second half of this year, the prognosis for global economy has taken on a more cautious tone. There is more uncertainty in US and Europe compared to three months ago. But we expect growth in our external markets to continue, albeit at a slow and uneven pace.

Core inflation remains slightly above the historical average of 1.7%. Inflationary pressures in the economy, while not acute, bear very close watching. First, there is tightness in the domestic labour market. The unemployment rate has dipped below 2%. Second, domestic spending remains firm, supported by strong income growth and generally favourable sentiments. Third, global commodities prices remain elevated, reflecting short-term supply constraints. MAS will continue to keep a close watch on inflationary pressures and developments in our key export markets. At this juncture, the current monetary policy stance of appreciating the $ policy band set in April this year remains appropriate. The next Monetary Policy Statement is scheduled for October. I will now go on to MAS’ accounts. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  MAS made investment gains of $ billion but recorded overall loss of $ billion due to a strong exchange rate. Excluding exchange rate effects, MAS achieved income and net capital gains totaling $ billion during the financial year (FY) ended March 2011. Stronger global growth led to an upturn across many asset classes; MAS’ diversified investments posted valuation gains. With the recovery in asset markets over the past two years, MAS’ portfolio, excluding exchange rate effects, has more than recovered from effects of the global financial crisis. However, the strength of the Sing Dollar has had a bearing on the valuation of MAS’ foreign assets. Over the FY, the Sing Dollar strengthened considerably against most currencies: 10% against the US dollar and 5.5% against the Euro.
Durmuş Yılmaz: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Durmuş Yılmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the Inflation Report, Ankara, 25 January 2011. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests and Members of the Press, Welcome to the press conference held to convey the main messages of the January 2011 Inflation Report. The report typically summarizes the economic framework addressed in monetary policy decisions, elaborates global and domestic macroeconomic developments and presents the medium-term inflation forecasts, which have been revised in view of previous quarter developments, along with the monetary policy stance. The report contains eight boxes written in the light of completed and continuing research projects conducted under the aegis of the Central Bank. These boxes include detailed analyses on issues affecting our policies. Considering the extraordinary significance of developments in the global economy for our policies, one of the boxes where the developments in the euro area and the USA are analyzed explains the sensitivities of the peripheral economies of the euro area against the debt crisis. On the other hand, in the second box the reasons for the increase in long-term nominal bond yields in the USA following the second round of quantitative easing is discussed. Besides, two more boxes were prepared aiming to elucidate domestic inflation dynamics. While the first of these examines the reasons for volatility in unprocessed food prices, the second box offers an assessment of Core inflation indicators.

Although the size of the market may seem modest by global standards, the sukuk market has been registering an impressive average growth of 40 per cent per annum. The phenomenal demand has been spurred by the high levels of surplus savings and reserves in Asia and Gulf regions. Asia has a savings rate which is higher than any other region in the world and is expected to remain between 30 and 40 per cent of GDP for many years to come. The sukuk market brings with it many benefits to both issuers and investors. Issuers can benefit from the huge increase in liquidity in the Islamic world, and can tap on these new sources of funds. Raising funding from the Islamic bond market in the current environment has been 10 to 20 basis points lower than mainstream bonds. An increased number of multilateral agencies are issuing sukuks to finance development projects. In addition, both government agencies and the corporate sector have considered the sukuk market as an attractive source of financing. From the investor perspective, there are the benefits of diversification. In a sukuk issue in 2005, 48 per cent of the issuance were subscribed by conventional-based investors. This increased appetite for sukuk reinforced by excess liquidity in the global financial system is part of the reasons sukuks are attractively priced for issuers. Extending the linkages to other parts of the world The emergence of Islamic financial products, in particular, in the capital market has also promoted greater global financial integration.
The countercyclical capital buffer is held to lean against the financial cycle, which is longer than a normal business cycle. Economists at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) find that the average length of the financial cycle in advanced economies is around 16 years.5 The length of the business cycle, on the other hand, is 8 years at most. The difference is illustrated in the chart. Twenty years passed from the start of the banking crisis in 1988 to the financial crisis. Capital adequacy requirements are only one of several factors influencing bank lending margins and rates. And bank lending rates are only one of many factors that are given weight when the key policy rate is set. Our knowledge and experience of macroprudential regulation is at an early stage. Financial market participants can find ways to circumvent regulation. Taking into account the risk of a build-up of financial imbalances will therefore continue to be one of the criteria for an appropriate interest rate path and an important element of a robust monetary policy framework. Payment system Norges Bank’s role in monetary policy is laid down in the Norges Bank Act. The Act also assigns responsibility to Norges Bank for promoting an efficient payment system.6 The payment system and the systems for settlement of securities and foreign exchange  5  Drehmann et al. “Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term”, BIS WP 380, June 2012. 6  Section 1 of the Norges Bank Act.

The G20, the Financial Stability Board and its Standing Committees, and the Standard Setting Bodies are all working hard and there is no lack of specific subjects to address – the Basel capital framework, the accounting standards for valuation and for off-balance sheet activities, capital requirements for trading activities, compensation practices, central counterparties, principles for the oversight of hedge funds, supervisory colleges, cross-border cooperation on crisis management, oversight regimes for the rating agencies, etc, etc. Some of you may already be suffering from meeting fatigue and, like me, somewhat sick of these subjects already; so I do not want to add to your agony. I am fortunate to have had the privilege of setting up and heading a central banking institution over a relatively long and exciting period in a significant international financial centre that is free and open. And as the time for retirement draws near, after sixteen and a half years, I do have a few reflections, from a rather different perspective than those of present pre-occupations, which I would like to share with others. They are nothing profound or technical; just a few issues that I have found particularly challenging over the years. The first concerns a conflict. This is the conflict between the private, particularly short term, interest of financial intermediaries in maximising profits, and the public interest of effective financial intermediation that provides crucial support to the economy.
I know I will fall short in fully acknowledging all the hardship that our fellow citizens have endured – including devastating losses of loved ones, homes, communities and livelihoods – as well as widespread misery caused by flooding and disruptions to power, fuel, food, transportation and other services across the region. Nor will I be able to fully commend the ways in which family members, neighbors, co-workers and strangers have helped those in need. I am deeply moved by the evidence of people reaching out and pulling together across the region. At the New York Fed we are committed to supporting the recovery process. In addition to our economic analysis, we are convening our advisory groups and other regional contacts to receive first-hand accounts of the impact on communities, families and businesses and to assess other ways in which we may help. For example, we are holding a clinic in Staten Island to help people obtain information about different types of financial support that is available. We’re also encouraging banks to show appropriate flexibility when dealing with small business and other borrowers impacted by the storm. After my remarks, I’ll be happy to answer any questions you have about what the Fed does and why, and about the economic outlook. But I won’t comment specifically on the upcoming FOMC meeting next month. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee, also known as the FOMC.

We would do well to remember, however, that people’s perceptions of the future are often shaped not so much by words as by actions. So, after a series of purposeful decisions by the Government, the Riksdag (Sweden’s parliament) and the Riksbank, economic policy’s general commitment to macroeconomic stability began to inspire confidence. Economic policy’s credibility gave the Riksbank greater freedom to act The growing confidence accordingly meant in turn that, without jeopardising the objective of price stability, the Riksbank was able to lower the repo rate relatively markedly, from almost 9% to just over 4%. Interest rates for longer maturities also fell. This led, as we have all seen in recent years, not just to higher GDP growth but also to a more uniform development of demand in different sectors. When the cyclical upswing began towards the end of 1993, most of the growth came from the export sector. However, lower levels of interest rates benefited Swedish households and firms by easing the heavily restrictive effect of the high level previously. This contributed to an increase in domestic demand as well and broadened the economic upswing. That can be said to have instigated the considerable reduction of unemployment we have seen in recent years. Neither the Asian crisis in 1997 nor the turbulence in international financial markets in the autumn of 1998 had much of an impact, thanks not least to a monetary policy realignment in many countries. The Swedish repo rate was also cut, to a low of 2.90%.
BIS Review 23/2009    Although there are factors that look worse than in the 1990s  International economic activity  Uncertainty over global financial crisis    There are many more that look better now…  17  So why will things go better this time?   Not a ” home-made” crisis    Surplus on current account    Sound public finances    Better conditions for both fiscal and monetary policy    Lower interest rates to start with    Updated regulations, focus on borrowing and capital  Comparison of recoveries after different recessions, GDP Sweden Level, index=100 final quarter before recession begins 115  115 2008 Q1 2000 Q3 1996 Q1 1990 Q2  110  110  105  105  100  100  95  95  90  90 -4  -2  0  2  Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts. Legends refer to quarter when recession begins.

We are expecting that the measures taken by us and other authorities, both in Sweden and abroad, will contribute to the Swedish economy  BIS Review 23/2009  3  beginning a recovery next year. We are therefore expecting to begin raising the interest rate again towards the end of 2010, and fairly quickly, to just over 3 per cent at the end of our forecast period. Sharp deterioration in world economic activity… The main reason why we cut the repo rate and adjusted the interest rate forecast in this way is that economic activity has weakened both in Sweden and abroad – much more than we had expected in the assessment we made in December. To return to my ice skating metaphor – we were once again in a situation where conditions had changed so quickly that it was also necessary to change course significantly and at once. Households’ and companies’ expectations of future economic prospects are now as low as they were during the crisis in the 1990s. And since last autumn in principle all types of confidence indicators around the world have fallen substantially. Almost all statistics on economic activity published since our December assessment have been worse than expected. The situation looks particularly gloomy in the United States and the euro area, but prospects have deteriorated more or less around the world.
In our recently published Financial Sector Blueprint, we stressed the need for strengthened cyber security readiness and responsiveness – not just within the financial sector, but across the whole chain of financial services. This includes third party service providers like telcos and cloud providers. After all, the defences against cyber threats are only as strong as the weakest link in that chain. An ongoing, critical priority for Bank Negara Malaysia and financial industry is to ensure our banking and payment channels remain secure and are equipped with the latest security controls and fraud risk management capabilities. Bank Negara Malaysia has issued multiple security advisories to the industry on modus operandi of latest frauds and additional countermeasures, and will continue to update regulatory requirements to take into account new risks. For example, to further strengthen security measures for online transactions, banks will be required to migrate from SMS-based “one-time passwords” to more secure, multi-factor authentication methods, for certain transactions. By their very nature, frauds and scams will continually seek to find ways to circumvent efforts to eradicate them. Bagai cendawan tumbuh selepas hujan. This means that in our efforts to combat scams, we continue to navigate the need to ensure the strong security measures against potential threats, without excessively increasing frictions that would affect the convenience of, and access to online financial services. For us to achieve this outcome, we also need customers to take steps to protect themselves against evolving threats.

Bank Negara Malaysia also continues to use the tools at our disposal to ensure movements in the ringgit are orderly, in an environment of aggressive monetary policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve. The US dollar index is up 11.5% this year, its highest in two decades. Relative to the dollar, most major and regional currencies – including the ringgit – have depreciated. However, the ringgit has remained broadly stable when compared against currencies of our major trade partners. In fact, Malaysia's nominal effective exchange rate registered only a marginal depreciation of around 0.1%. In short, Malaysia’s economic recovery is well underway. That said, it is important to ensure - more than ever - that we secure our fundamentals, to strengthen our resilience against future crises and to enable the country to maximise its full potential. We need measures to address long-term vulnerabilities and boost our resilience against future shocks. We need to attract more quality investments that increase our economic complexity and create quality jobs for Malaysians. We need to embrace the sustainability agenda. We must also reform our subsidy system to be more targeted, and strengthen our social protection framework. Indeed, it goes without saying we need inclusive growth to bring about shared prosperity for all Malaysians. While targeted assistance remains in place to help segments of society that continue to deal with the lingering effects of the crisis, the economic and social costs of financial crime are especially harsh on these groups.
In view of the far reaching implications of any reform agenda, it is an important global responsibility to ensure that the reforms achieve their intended results and that this new phase of globalisation will result in a more inclusive international financial system that will allow for the effective participation in the global economy and international financial system regardless of size or stage of developments. On the specific regulatory reforms to address the issues and problems that caused the crisis, of importance, is that the goal of such regulatory reform should not be overlooked – promoting financial stability is a means to an end and the ultimate goal is to achieve sustainable growth and development. Many have already highlighted the potential increased regulatory costs on intermediation and hence on economic activity. This is even more relevant in Asia where there is greater reliance on the banking sector for financing. The efforts undertaken to comprehensively assess the macroeconomic impact including by the IIF is highly relevant and will be important to the reform process. A further concern and one that is less discussed is on the implementation of the regulatory reform. With greater capital mobility across borders, the stricter regulations could result in the migration of financial business to less regulated market segments, institutions or financial centres. Important to this is the need for the development of the framework for cross border policy coordination and resolution.

In Asia, efforts are underway to address these specific issues recognising that in this interconnected environment, the execution of remedial and containment measures will be highly complex and challenging. Focus is also being given to having enhanced surveillance and oversight that is complemented by a robust framework for governance, transparency and accountability. Given the strong presence of international institutions in the Asian region, we have strong interest in the establishment of an effective cross border resolution mechanism so that any failure of such large and systemically important institutions with cross border representations can be dealt with effectively in an orderly manner. This will require cooperation and coordination across countries, taking into consideration their differing regulatory and legal systems. A further priority in emerging Asia is the promotion of responsible market practices and consumer protection given the stage of development and level of financial literacy. There is significant scope for creating greater global momentum for improvements in regulatory standards on market practices. Much work still remains ahead and would require resolve and commitment in this reform agenda. The more inclusive global process is critical to this effort and should be further deepened to truly reflect the global dimension of the financial system in this 21st century. On the recent increasingly intense debate on the role of the exchange rate as the solution to the global imbalances, it needs to be recognised that the foreign exchange market is not like any other markets.
As a component of trust, fairness involves being aware of such differences and to find ways to prevent, mitigate or compensate redistributive effects that are particularly undesired. Within an institution, fairness also involves the creation of a working environment that fosters productive exchange of ideas, free of harassment and discrimination. Fostering trust in a Central Bank The OECD taxonomy may be useful in providing a conceptual basis to go beyond generalizations on public trust and to take a more proactive approach to nurture it. In particular, it provides a good framework to develop ways to assess trust and to identify concrete levers that an institution can use to foster trust. However, can this framework be applied to a central bank? In my view, this is not only possible, but necessary as well. Assessing trust on a central bank by inserting a question in an opinion survey suffers from the same limitations as with government institutions and a few more. Answers to a broad question may be more reflective of prejudice than of attitudes that may shape the response to future policy decisions or incoming information and may come too late in a process of social or market change to make any difference. In addition,  Page 5 of 8  Central Bank of Chile July 2019  experience with opinion surveys in different countries has shown that no more than half of respondents have some basic knowledge of central banks.

In light of the poor consumption and investment levels, which have reflected in the decline of imports by 8.1% during this period, this tendency has improved the external position of the Albanian economy further. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Albania’s trade deficit shrank 32.5% in January. The developments in the external sector of the Albanian economy reflected in improved foreign currency demand and supply ratios, contributing, in turn, to a stable exchange rate. The Albanian government pursued an accommodating fiscal policy in the first two months of 2013, expressed in the increase of public expenditure and widening budget deficit. Budget expenditure increased at an annualised rate of 1.3% in January and February. This increase was reflected in both current and capital expenditure. Amidst the sluggish economy, budget revenues continued to contract, registering an annualised fall of 0.8% over the months under review. This performance of public expenditure and revenues increased the fiscal deficit by about 5.1%. Reflecting upon the expected economic and financial developments, the Bank of Albania has been pursuing a stimulating monetary policy. Through the constant key rate cuts and liquidity injections into the banking market, the Bank of Albania has aimed at ensuring more appropriate monetary conditions to meet its inflation target in the medium-term period. The financial market evidences low liquidity and inflation pressures, which, in turn, have enabled the pass-through of monetary easing into the money and primary market.