samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Consider that the Bank monitors risks that threaten the operational resilience of the UK financial system. At the Financial Policy Committee’s instigation, we have been working with other authorities to encourage firms to improve their cyber defences. Over the past two years, twenty-three firms have undergone CBEST penetration tests, with all core banks expected to have completed tests by the end of this year. To complement these efforts, the Bank has begun examining how public data could be used to assess firms’ cyber resilience, including looking for malware on a firm’s systems, software vulnerabilities, or weak encryption that could be exploited by hackers. 12 As a proof of concept and good cyber hygiene, we are using data publically available on the web to assess our own resilience. Early results indicate these techniques could complement existing tests in our regular assessments of firms’ operational resilience. We are also exploring how we - and others - could use the data the Bank collects more effectively. Big Data has the potential to help the Bank’s policy committees identify trends in systemic risk and the economy. Much of the data we collect is rightly subject to strict limits on confidentiality and sharing. For example, our regulatory mortgage contract data comes under strict control to guarantee personal data protection. We can’t just share the private data to which we have access with external researchers, foreign authorities or even across the Bank.

This will also promote a better understanding by SMEs of their financial conditions, drawn from the analysis provided through the Bureau reports. Initiatives have been taken to continuously develop new financing products that meet the evolving needs of SMEs in various segments and stages of growth. This includes the introduction of the new CGC guarantee scheme to assist start-up SMEs that have insufficient collateral and insufficient financial track record to obtain bank financing. Finally, to complement the financial infrastructure, initiatives have been taken to develop comprehensive financial advisory services. Bank Negara Malaysia's Laman Informasi Nasihat dan Khidmat or BNMLINK, and BNMTELELINK, which is a dedicated Contact Centre, provide financial advisory services to the SMEs. In addition, Bank Negara has also  BIS Review 90/2008  3  established the Small Debt Resolution Scheme where viable SMEs that are constrained by non-performing loans are assisted through loan restructuring and the provision of additional funding. Today, SME financing has become robust with financial institutions being the main provider of SME financing. In 2007, banking institutions approved RM55 billion in new financing to more than 109,000 SME accounts. For the first five months of 2008 alone, a total of RM22.7 billion in new financing was approved to more than 55,800 SME accounts. As at end-May 2008, outstanding SME financing by banking institutions amounted to RM120.3 billion. In 2008, banking institutions are projected to approve RM61 billion of financing to more than 115,000 SME accounts, increasing at an annual growth rate of 10%.
Nevertheless, a recovering tourism industry, decreasing unemployment, and EU funding payments all help to boost activity and limit, to some extent, output loss. More specifically the Euro area quarterly economic growth reached 0.8 percent in the second quarter, following a 0.7 percent rise in the first quarter. Even though these growth rates are below the rates expected before the start of the war, the 0.8%, growth is still the strongest performance in three quarters, prompted by the easing of Covid restrictions and the good summer tourism season in southern countries. The impact from war developments is expected to be shown in the data of the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first half of 2023. This outlook is reflected in the latest ECB projections for economic growth, which have been revised down markedly for the remainder of the current year and throughout 2023. The euro area economy is now expected to grow by 3.1 percent in 2022, 0.9 percent in 2023 and 1.9 percent in 2024, compared to the December 2021 projections of 4,2 percent, 2,9 percent and 1,6 percent respectively. Harmonized inflation rose to a high of 9.1 percent in August, up from 8.9 percent in July. For the period January-August as a whole, inflation stood at 7,6  1/6  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  percent.

Going forward, and despite an impact from the war on the sectors previously mentioned, a continued downward trend in the overall unemployment rate is projected over the following years, converging closer towards full-time employment conditions in 2024, owing to the projected ongoing economic expansion and the expected manageable impact from the war. The latter is supported by survey data from the European Commission, where employment expectations by businesses across services and industry remained broadly unchanged since the outbreak of war. Turning now to inflation, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 7,7% during the period January-July 2022 compared with 0,9% in the corresponding period of 2021. During the period under review, the surge in the domestic HICP, is mainly attributed to the sizeable adverse consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and also due to the ongoing consequences of the pandemic. More specifically, the energy component of HICP is the largest contributor to the surging trend of domestic headline inflation (with around 45% share on HICP) during the period under review mainly due to the developments related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine which resulted to the exceptional soaring in the prices of oil and gas in international markets. Food prices also registered sizeable yearly increases (7,1% during Jan-July 2022 Vs -1,3% in the corresponding period of 2021) in the aftermath of the latest ongoing geopolitical tensions. At the same time, the remaining components of the HICP such as services, non-energy industrial goods also recorded significant yearly price increases.
It is important to introduce regulations for risks related to activities of this type so that they can be limited. In a globalised world this is also important to Sweden. In addition, the Basel Committee is also  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  working with a regulatory framework to limit large exposures and a number of frameworks relating to the derivatives market. All of these are included in the reform package that the Basel Committee hopes to be able to finalise this year. New focus: application of the regulatory frameworks and the calculation of risk weights By now it is probably obvious to most of you that the Basel Committee and other standard setters have had a lot to do: the list of regulations is long. However, important as it is to design effective regulatory frameworks, it is just as important to ensure that they introduced in a consistent way around the globe. Only then will they be effective and credible. During my chairmanship, I have therefore considered it to be an important task for the Basel Committee to extend its efforts to monitor how various frameworks are implemented. Today, the Basel Committee conducts this work at several levels. For example, the Committee is currently assessing how the capital adequacy regulations in Basel III have been incorporated into national regulatory frameworks. Six assessments have been carried out so far and three are in progress, including the assessment of the EU.

The Riksbank has long pointed out that the Swedish banks should reduce their funding risks by extending the maturity of their funding so that it corresponds more closely to the maturity of the banks’ assets. The aim of the NSFR is to get the banks to do just this. •  Finally, we have the so-called countercyclical buffer, which is one of the new buffers introduced through the capital adequacy regulations in Basel III. This is intended to ensure that the banks build up extra shock absorbers in times when credit growth is particularly high so that they really take into account the risks that such an expansion entails for the financial system as a whole. This may also help to slow down an excessive growth in credit. Once this framework is in place it is in my opinion reasonable, given the course developments have taken in Sweden, that the countercyclical buffer is implemented and activated at a high level. 1  Having 12 per cent CET 1 capital here entails, according to the regulations, a primary capital requirement of at least 13.5 per cent of risk-weighted assets. As 13.5 per cent of 22 per cent equals 3 per cent, the leverage ratio requirement, put simply, corresponds to a risk weight of 22 per cent for mortgages. The calculation is based on a leverage ratio defined with primary capital in the numerator.
It therefore has a vital interest in strongly opposing protectionist tendencies. The best way it can do so is to set a good example and to be prepared to be even more open to trade. The international community of states can counter protectionism by advocating that weaknesses in the current trading system be remedied. On the one hand, the countries involved must make sure that those losing out on account of free trade are better integrated, thus increasing acceptance for economic openness and international trade. This can be achieved by promoting labour mobility and expanding the opportunities for training and continued professional development. Countries that cushion the blow of the adjustment costs of structural change arising from international trade in this manner tend to have a more positive attitude towards free trade. On the other hand, it must also be ensured that, within the international trading system, the same rules apply to all participants and are globally adhered to. The rules-based multilateral system represented by the World Trade Organization (WTO) must therefore continue to form the backbone of international trade. The system must be rules-based since only clear rules can ensure a stable, predictable environment and thus institutional security. Hence a multilateral approach is important because this is the only way to ensure all countries play by the same rules, irrespective of their size or economic strength. A trading system such as this creates a level playing field for all participants, which is essential in particular for small countries like Switzerland.

Protectionism is the polar opposite of free trade, the negative impact of the former mirroring the positive effects of the latter. Tariffs make imports more expensive, thereby increasing domestic production costs and reducing consumers’ purchasing power. Tariffs imposed by trading partners restrict exports. Trade barriers impact on the division of labour worldwide, productivity declines, growth and progress are curbed. Although it is difficult to estimate the negative impact of a worldwide trade dispute on global GDP, there can be no question that a full-scale trade war would weigh heavily on the world economy. Not least because it would be likely to entail a slump in confidence among economic actors and upheaval on the financial markets. 5 All countries would feel the detrimental effect of a global trade war, but small open economies such as Switzerland would be among those hardest hit. 5  A range of authors have recently published estimates of the effects of a global trade war on the real economy. In their study, Berthou et al. (2018) simulate a 10 percentage point increase in tariffs worldwide, and found that this could reduce global GDP by around 1% after two years, taking only the direct trading effects into account. Other studies, such as that published by the OECD (2016), show similar results. If the indirect effects on confidence and the financial markets are considered in addition to the direct impact, the decrease in global GDP could be three times greater (Berthou et al., 2018).
4  BIS Review 29/2006  course, if the forecast indicates that inflation is below target. However, the exact rate at which the interest rate should be adjusted will be affected by the entire inflation path and by developments in the real economy. Let me tie in this reasoning to the situation at our most recent monetary policy meeting. The fact that inflation was low and was expected to remain low over a fairly long period of time could have indicated slightly more expansionary monetary policy than the market was expecting, even though inflation was expected to be close to target two years ahead. However, at the same time we needed to consider that growth in the economy was expected to be robust and that a continued expansionary monetary policy risked leading to overheating in the economy. The overall assessment was that the best alternative was to raise the interest rate. Some current monetary policy issues I now intend to take up a couple of current issues that have recently arisen in the debate on monetary policy. The purpose of this is to discuss how they can be regarded in the light of the general reasoning on monetary policy that I have just explained. Problems in determining the level of capacity utilisation The first issue concerns how monetary policy’s endeavour to contribute to stable real economic growth can be explained in more concrete terms.

Our way of thinking has developed both as we and other central banks have gained greater experience and as further progress is made in economic research. From this perspective it is also reasonable to make a fresh start, so to speak, from time to time and to report in a collected manner on how we Executive Board members reason when formulating monetary policy. I would like to emphasise that this involves describing the principles for how we currently reason. It is not a question of a fundamentally new method of conducting monetary policy. My main message is: •  The inflation-targeting policy is conducted with consideration to the real economy. •  There has been a gradual development in our reasoning on monetary policy. •  We have abandoned the policy rule that was based on the assumption of a constant repo rate in our forecasts. •  The forecasts of inflation are now based on an assumption that the repo rate will follow market expectations. •  Large fluctuations in asset prices entail risks that we must take into account. Inflation target and consideration of the real economy The monetary policy objective laid down by Parliament is to maintain price stability. The Riksbank has chosen to define the target as keeping the annual rate of increase in the consumer price index, CPI, at 2 per cent, but it does not mean that the development of this index is the only factor on which monetary policy is based.
Evidently, though, the possibilities of further using these types of policies have become notably constrained, both at home and abroad. It should also be borne in mind that, once the economic and financial fragility beleaguering the world economy has been resolved, demand-side policies should adopt a more neutral stance. All these considerations on the diagnosis of the Spanish economy in the current international crisis and on the limited leeway available to demand-side policies mean, rather, that  6  BIS Review 79/2009  economic policy has a central role to play in implementing the reforms that help improve productivity and the behaviour of the factor and product markets. It is in this area that the authorities undoubtedly have effective room for manoeuvre, and also considerable responsibility. Let me begin with the labour market, which is where the most pressing problems are to be found. The scale of job destruction has once more highlighted the existence of distortions that emerge with force in recessions and compound contractionary trends. And there is a risk that, as in the past, the surge and change in level in unemployment may stick and that this will delay subsequent recovery. Labour market dysfunctions are also closely linked to the discouraging behaviour of the economy in respect of gains in economic efficiency and in productivity, hampering the possibility of attaining genuine improvements in competitiveness and of raising growth potential.

Indeed, at last year’s presentation of the Annual Report to the Council, I referred to budgetary policy as one of the main underpinnings of the Spanish economy in this phase of the cycle and I pointed out that the favourable fiscal position would allow the automatic stabilisers to operate to their full extent without jeopardising budgetary stability. One year on, the fiscal results for 2008 and the projections available – which point to a budget deficit approaching 10% of GDP in 2010 and to a public debt ratio that might exceed the threshold of 60% of GDP – augur a drastic change in outlook, with the possibilities of fiscal policy boosting spending having been exhausted. Fiscal measures that call into question the commitment to budgetary stability in the medium term should be categorically avoided, since that would adversely affect the cost of raising funds and confidence in the Spanish economy, and it could also generate expectations of future tax rises that might ultimately sterilise the expansionary effects of the measures adopted. Public-sector debt must be prevented from becoming an obstacle once the Spanish economy is better placed to grow. Accordingly, priority must be given to promptly defining a credible strategy to reduce the deficit to levels compatible with budgetary stability, once the exceptional circumstances that led to the rise in the deficit have disappeared. The demand-side expansionary fiscal and monetary impulses are proving very powerful and are contributing to the alleviation of the contractionary forces at play.
In the rest of my remarks I should like to comment briefly on the evolving international consensus on the approach to maintaining financial stability. The 1994 Madrid Declaration, to which I referred earlier, had already welcomed "the growing trend towards currency convertibility and encouraged IMF member countries to remove impediments to the free flow of capital." One might have supposed that the subsequent eruption of the Asian financial crisis – which was certainly aggravated, if not provoked, by volatile international capital flows – might have resulted in something of a reaction to further evolution in that direction. In fact, in the midst of the turmoil, in September 1997, the IMF's Interim Committee confirmed the consensus view that: "Private capital flows have become much more important to the international monetary system, and an increasingly open and liberal system has proved to be highly beneficial to the world economy. By facilitating the flow of savings to their most productive uses, capital movements increase investment, growth, and prosperity." In other words, while markets may not be perfect, they are in general the best means we have of allocating financial resources efficiently. The impact of the crisis was instead to give fresh impetus to defining and establishing the conditions that are necessary for financial markets to function more efficiently, and that would help to reduce the risks of and limit the damage from, volatile  4  BIS Review 36/2001  shifts in market sentiment, with their potentially disruptive effect on both economic and financial stability.

The Rt Hon Sir Edward George: International efforts to improve the global economy Speech by The Rt Hon Sir Edward George, Governor of the Bank of England, to the Swiss Institute of International Studies at the University of Zurich, 7 May 2001. *  *  *  A week ago I returned from the annual Spring Meeting of the IMF in Washington, and I thought that I might discuss with you this evening where we are in our collective international efforts to improve the functioning of the global economy. In particular I will touch upon two broad areas: first, the approach to overall economic management; secondly, the approach to strengthening the international financial system. But I should like to begin with a few words about the process of international monetary and financial co-operation. Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, as well as their Deputies, spend a good deal of time at meetings in various different international fora. I am often asked after one or other of these meetings "what exactly did you decide?" And more often than not, the answer is that we did not actually take any specific decisions. We exchanged opinions, and often agreed that we needed to do more work on this or that issue which we could review and debate at a subsequent meeting. You could be forgiven for thinking that the process of reaching international agreement on anything moves at a snail's pace. To a degree that is true.
All stakeholders stand to benefit from a rich database as credit providers will have a good basis to adequately assess the credit worthiness of their existing and potential customers with a view to providing properly priced products and services. Chairperson, the Government has also created the Citizens Economic Empowerment Commission (CEEC) in order to enable small businesses with viable investment projects have access to finance. I would personally like to see an increased flow of credit to our SMEs which, as many of you know, have been routinely found to be a major source of growth in any market economy. This is more so as the larger part of our productive population, particularly those in the informal sector, is in fact employed in one way or the other in these SMEs. It is therefore strategic for us in the financial advisory arena to support our brothers and sisters who run these SMEs. By ensuring that credit flows in that direction, we can then be assured that more and more of our people who are engaged in SMEs will certainly have access to financial services like everybody else. In the process, growth generated from the SMEs can sustainably offer the much needed respite from mineral dependency. Ladies and Gentlemen, for Government initiatives to be effective there is need to integrate them into the mainstream financial system. In this regard, financial reforms must continue to evolve and be dynamic in order to address the main challenges still facing the Zambian financial markets.

In the non-bank financial subsector, growth of nonbank financial institutions offering bank-like products has also tremendously increased. As at end June 2010 there were 24 registered microfinance institutions while the number of leasing firms also increased to 12 over the years. Ladies and Gentlemen, apart from increasing the number of financial service providers, we have also scored some successes in the availability of credit to Zambians. In the period prior  BIS Review 105/2010  1  to the 2008 global financial crisis, the economy was experiencing not only phenomenal growth in credit availability but also a changing pattern in the distribution of credit. Annual growth in credit peaked and averaged 131% between 2000 and 2008 before succumbing to the adverse effects of the global economic crisis. With regard to the direction of credit, it is heartening to note that bank loans, which have been largely a preserve of corporate businesses for a long time, are finally within reach of our many working Zambian individuals. Ladies and Gentlemen, the flow of credit to individual workers has literally exploded in recent years. You may wish to know that personal loans, which stood at a paltry 6% of total bank loans at the turn of this decade now account for 26%. You may also remember the aggressive manner in which commercial banks rolled out their loan products in the period prior to the 2008 global financial crisis.