samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It is notable that this explanation is consistent with evidence from business surveys of spare capacity which suggest that underlying productivity growth in the manufacturing and services sector has essentially stagnated since the start of the recession (Charts 5 and 6).9 What might account for this flat lining in potential productivity? Impact of financial crisis In an accounting sense, this stalling in productivity growth must be attributable to one of two factors. A slowing in the rate at which companies have added to the physical capital used by each member of their workforce. Or a slowing in the pace of efficiency gains associated with the way in which companies combine capital and labour to produce output, known in the jargon as total factor productivity. In reality, it is unlikely that a slowing in the pace of capital accumulation contributed significantly to the weakness of productivity. This is largely a matter of arithmetic. Annual business investment flows are small relative to the size of the capital stock. So even though business investment fell by around a quarter in the year following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and remains 20% below its pre-crisis level, it is unlikely to have had a significant impact on the stock of capital available per worker.10  8  Evidence from business surveys (eg BCC, CBI) and the Bank’s Agents suggest that capacity utilisation was above normal in both manufacturing and services sectors.

As such, it is often natural for the main focus of policy to be concentrated on the prospects for demand. But judgements about supply also matter, particularly so in the aftermath of a deep recession. In recessions, demand typically falls by more than supply. An output gap opens up – the economy can supply more than is currently demanded. And unless that gap is closed, it will push down on costs and prices. The job of monetary policymakers is to loosen policy, so that demand is brought back into balance with supply and inflation remains close to target. Exactly how expansionary policy should be depends critically on the size of the output gap. But assessing the size of the output gap is very difficult, for exactly the reasons we have been discussing today. Early estimates of economic activity can be revised substantially, so it is hard to know just how weak demand and output really are. And it is equally difficult to know the extent to which the supply potential of the economy has been affected by the recession.13 This difficultly greatly complicates the setting of monetary policy. Indeed, in a series of influential papers, Athanasios Orphanides (eg Orphanides 2003) has argued that over-estimates of the size of the output gap played an important role in the policy mistakes that led to the period of persistently high inflation in the US in the 1970s and 80s. 13  6  Or indeed, if shocks to supply were instrumental in causing the recession.
ECB governance On 3 February 2003, the Governing Council of the ECB unanimously approved a Recommendation for a European Council decision, which is aimed at adjusting the voting modalities in the Governing Council in an enlarged euro area, in accordance with article 10.6 of the Statutes introduced by the Treaty of Nice. This adjustment became necessary so as to maintain the efficiency and timeliness of the Governing Council’s decision-making process. The Recommendation has been submitted to the EU Council. We hope that it will eventually be endorsed by the Heads of State and Government after both the European Parliament and the European Commission, which has already delivered its opinion, have been consulted. BIS Review 11/2003  1  As soon as the number of members of the Governing Council will reach 22, the total number of voting rights will be limited to 21. The six executive board members will have a permanent voting right and the NCB Governors will share the remaining 15 voting rights which will rotate among them according to pre-established rules. To ensure that all decisions taken by the Governing Council are representative of the euro area economy as a whole, Governors will be allocated to groups which differ with respect to the frequency with which their members will have voting rights. The allocation of Governors to groups will therefore be done in accordance with a ranking of their respective NCB’s, reflecting mainly the size of economies and of financial sectors.

Jean-Claude Trichet: The European Monetary Union and the euro Speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Financial Forum 2003, organised by The Wall Street Journal Europe and The New Economy Forum, Madrid, 25 February 2003. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure and an honour to be with you today, on the occasion of the “Financial Forum 2003”, organised by the New Economy Forum and the Wall Street Journal Europe. I would like to present my views on the successful set-up of the euro, on the economic and financial integration of Europe and on the challenges that the euro-zone will confront going forward. The Euro: built on a successful set up Set-up of the Eurosystem The single monetary policy is formulated and implemented within a sound institutional framework, the Eurosystem, comprising the European Central Bank and the twelve national central banks of the euro area. Three principles underpin the Eurosystem: independence, transparency and decentralisation. The independence of both the European Central Bank and national central banks is enshrined in the Treaty. When exercising their powers and carrying out their tasks and duties, neither the central banks of the Eurosystem nor any member of its decision making bodies shall seek or take instructions from Community institutions, from any government of a Member State or from any other body. Independence refers to institutional, operational and financial independence.
Under such an approach, individual countries will have the necessary degree of flexibility to tailor national implementation approaches to reflect the specific characteristics of their respective economies, while committing to uphold the essential regulatory and supervisory principles that underpin financial stability. With Asia’s varied experience in weathering financial crises, in developing our financial systems and in implementing the various regulatory reforms, valuable lessons can be drawn from the region to advance the progress and development of our respective financial systems and of the region as a whole. SEACEN has had an instrumental role for more than 30 years in the efforts to share this knowledge and experience widely among its members through providing a platform for such information sharing and through its research, training and capacity building initiatives. Today, SEACEN takes yet another important step forward in advancing this agenda with the launch of the SEACEN Financial Stability Journal. We live in a world in which the management of financial stability is a highly complex undertaking, and its dimensions have continued to evolve in an environment that is rapidly changing. It is hoped that the Journal will contribute ideas, perspectives and insights and thus generate the intellectual dialogue and discourse on financial stability issues. As a region, Asia has many unique perspectives and experiences to share with others facing similar challenges in managing financial stability. I congratulate the SEACEN Centre on this important initiative. I wish it every success and look forward to contributions from SEACEN members and from the other parts of the world.

The average annual real rate of GDP growth in Bulgaria in the period 1998–2011 stood at 4% and the real cumulative growth in the same period was 63.5%. At the same time, the added value posted by the sector, classified by the national statistics as “finance and insurance”, boasted an average annual real growth of 13.3%, and cumulatively for the same period – a notable 384.9%. All that time, around 1/6 of the country’s GDP growth was contributed by this sector, which is largely dominated and represented by the banks. Besides being a factor of economic growth, the banking system has played a significant role for attracting foreign direct investments to Bulgaria. A total of BGN 76.6 billion in foreign  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  direct investments inflow was registered over the period from 1998 to 2011, of which over 1/6 (BGN 11.9 billion) were direct investments in the banking sector in particular. Not lastly, the banking sector accounts for a large part of the “brightest” share in Bulgaria’s economy. The role of banks in Bulgaria should not be considered in isolation from the fact that they are among the biggest and most immaculate employers. In 2011 the number of full-time employees in the banking system reached 33 677 at year-end. With the BGN 77.6 million in tax costs and BGN 722.8 million in personnel costs paid in 2011 only, for example, the banking sector ranks among the largest taxpayers and contributors to the social security system in Bulgaria.
The risk premium in the interbank market has generally driven up the 3-month LIBOR which serves as the reference rate for the pricing of  15  Georgios Chortareas, David Stasavage, and Gabriel Sterne, 2002, “Does it pay to be transparent? International Evidence from Central Bank Forecasts”, Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July/August, 99-117. 16  Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004, “Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?”, NBER Working Paper No. 10829, p. 25. 17  In fact, the Bank of England would have preferred to act covertly, but the market abuses directive prevented this (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/sep/21/14). BIS Review 141/2007  5  credit. At the same time, interest rates on risk-free securities such as Government notes have declined. The result is a significant increase in the TED spread (the difference between an uncollateralized interbank loan and the risk free rate of the same maturity). With the 3-month LIBOR rising, central banks faced an important monetary policy decision. In countries where the official target rate is a central bank rate, for instance, the euro zone, the 3-month LIBOR became increasingly disconnected from the official target rate (typically a repo rate of two weeks or less). As you can see from Graph 1a, the ECB held its official target rate (the two-week repo rate) constant and therefore tolerated an increase in the 3month LIBOR.

Across Upstate New York, the cycle of recession and recovery has been much less pronounced than in the nation, which means that the region has been more stable in recent years than many other places around the country. This has been particularly true in Buffalo, which experienced an employment decline of about 3½ percent during the downturn – a significant loss, to be sure – but well below the over 6 percent decline that occurred nationally. One reason why Upstate New York weathered the storm better than the nation as a whole is the resiliency of its housing markets. Like much of Upstate New York, Buffalo’s housing market has proven to be more stable than many other parts of the country. In fact, since the peak of the national housing market in early 2006, home prices in the Buffalo area have increased by about 10 percent, compared with a decline of more than 30 percent nationally. As a result, the drop-off in economic activity that is connected, directly and indirectly, to the performance of the housing sector has not been as severe here as in many other places around the country. 1  As measured by the 12-month change in core PCE deflator. 2  See for instance, the behavior of the three- and six-month changes in the core PCE deflator.
That certainly implies a wide spectrum of actions: from generating online the account statement to transfers and payments via electronic platforms from various institutions, which are different from banks, digital money or virtual currency. Physical and digital worlds are intertwining rapidly. What do we imply with financial innovation, while speaking about financial technology ( Fin Tech)? An expert of this field says than Fin Tech should not indispensably be a rather complicated or sophisticated technical concept. Fin Tech supports business to be more effective and the systems to function better and faster, or simply to make life easier to individuals/businesses through the use of efficient financial services. Authorities have a decisive role in being committed to and supporting innovation. Advanced countries, such as Great Britain, are a good example of this approach. In the United Kingdom, the volume of transactions has grown by 74% since 2008, compared to 27% growth for the whole world or 13% for Silicon Valley. The British success is driven by the large support of government strategies and programs, from the regime of the points of sales, initiative to encourage investments and the establishment of the regulatory framework that provide grounds for the success of new initiatives, the possibility to access credit data for small-size enterprises, in the payment system and equal participation in the free competition. What can a Central Bank do?

Accordingly, since 2004, the Government has been implementing the Financial Sector Development Plan (FSDP) with a view to improving the functioning of financial markets and increasing accessibility to financial services. During the initial phase of the FSDP, numerous structural impediments to financial inclusiveness were identified and some measures have been instituted to correct them. The second phase of the FSDP is currently underway and focuses on enhancing the competitiveness of the financial services industry. It also focuses on establishing secondary trading of Government securities in an effort to enhance liquidity and price formation in the debt market. Without the liquidity provided by the secondary market, the primary or new issues market would be seriously hampered in its function of helping productive entities acquire new capital at affordable price. These measures are expected to stimulate development of the capital and money markets necessary for attracting long-term financing in the economy. Ladies and Gentlemen, in order to improve risk assessment of the credit worthiness of Zambian borrowers, the Government also came up with relevant legal provisions for establishing the Credit Reference Bureau (CRB). I am pleased to report that the CRB is now operational and compilation of the database on borrowers has commenced. However, the progress of collating credit information on the state of the clients’ financial status has been rather slow. I wish to take this opportunity to once again appeal to commercial banks and other financial service providers to expedite the process of building the data base on the borrowers’ credit profile.
Bank of Albania will take all necessary actions to ensure an inflation rate of 3 per cent with a tolerance band of ± 1 percent, in the short and long run. Interest rates During the recent years interest rates have dropped reflecting the ease of monetary policy. This has been a general trend for all financial assets either in Lek or foreign currency. On average banking system applies 9.7 percent for loans in domestic currency. The yield of 12 month Government securities dropped at a minimum of 5.74 percent in June 2006. However, following the last decision of the Bank of Albania and latest trends in global markets, a modest increase in interest rates has been observed during the last three months for both domestic and foreign financial instruments. We expect this trend to persist within the next 6-12 months. Banking system The Albanian banking system continues to expand. It is solid, consolidated and fully capitalized. The system consists of 17 banks, of which only 3 are entirely domestically owned. Banking network has been extended continuously including remote areas. Banking products increased in number and improved in quality. Entrance in the market of important European financial groups created a better competitive environment and further enhanced efficiency. The expansion of lending portfolio and more competitive lending rates has deepened financial intermediation. Latest data show that in June 2006, the assets of the banking sector reached 60 per cent of the Albanian Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Monetary policy has been designed and implemented in line with midterm country’s macroeconomic program: with specific focus on price and financial stability Let me now briefly summarize what I believe are the latest most important developments, and outline our economic outlook. Economic growth After the significant electricity shortages at the end of 2005, it appears that traditional growth promoting industries like services (tourism) and construction are growing at a stable pace, contributing at a sustainable economic growth. Building upon these developments as well as other positive indicators, we expect the economy will grow at a solid rate of 5-5.5 percent. The main challenge remains ensuring sustainability of these growth rates, even higher in the long run. I believe that respective Albanian authorities have already identified the major priorities of these challenges which fully converge with Bank of Albania views. Just to remind you I would briefly summaries some of these priorities. Building new, preferably alternative, energy sources and improving the efficiency is top priority. In our view, sufficient and reliable energy supply remains a main concern to achieving economic growth. Providing a solution to this problem is a priority in the verge of increasing global demand and energy prices. Speeding up the privatization process of the remaining state assets is another important step forward. Special attention should be paid to structural reforms, particularly property rights and legal framework. In our opinion services, construction and in particular agriculture will remain driving forces of the GDP growth in the coming years.
Although monetary policy cannot be used to steer competitiveness, changes in the krone exchange rate may provide an early warning of a weakening - or strengthening - of the exposed sector in the tug of war for real resources. A successful fiscal policy and a well-functioning wage formation process provide a sound basis for a stable krone exchange rate. The main difference between Norway and countries that have adopted an inflation target for monetary policy lies in the interaction between monetary policy and fiscal policy. The oil economy and capital exports through the Government Petroleum Fund are also features that are specific to the Norwegian economy. The most important factor that influences the krone exchange rate is confidence in nominal stability. If such confidence exists, short-term fluctuations in the krone exchange rate may vary without consequences for the exchange rate level over time. However, confidence depends on a number of factors, such as the authorities’ will to pursue nominal stability. Under the fixed exchange rate regime, we tied ourselves to the mast by stipulating an exchange rate band for the krone. With a floating exchange rate regime and wider scope for discretion, transparency concerning analyses and policy response pattern can contribute to bolstering confidence in the nominal anchor. However, this presupposed that the announced policy response pattern is actually followed. Fluctuations in domestic activity may induce changes in the exchange rate. For instance, strong demand for labour could push up wages and weaken competitiveness.

High tax rates promote tax planning and hamper the growth capacity of an economy. Low, broad-based tax rates are preferable to high tax rates with a narrow base. Norway made headway with the tax reform of 1992. There is still room for considerable improvement in the Norwegian system. Many public services are of considerable economic importance. Infrastructure, education, sound legislation and a solid judicial system are necessary for the economy to function and grow. Public services may be important in order to secure equality and security. At the same time, the public sector is so large that it affects the economy at large. This means that requirements concerning efficiency and adaptability must also apply to the public sector. Chart 18  Over a twenty year period, the number of employed in the health, care and education sectors increased by 240,000, which account for about 60% of the increase in overall employment in Norway. The number of employed in the health and care sector has more than doubled in 20 years. More people are now working in this sector than in the whole of manufacturing. Nevertheless, every day we receive reports of personnel shortages at hospitals, in elderly care or at schools. The authorities constantly signal increases in appropriations in order to remedy these problems. Norway imports labour from other countries to cover its resource shortages. What are the reasons behind this situation? BIS Review 14/2000  16  Chart 19  Demand for health and care services rises sharply when incomes increase.
And if developments turn out as we expect, inflation will return to target with little rise in unemployment. We project some rise in unemployment, but from a very low level, and a slightly smaller rise than we anticipated in December. Wage growth is expected to slow from next year, but lower inflation will probably result in firm growth in purchasing power in the years ahead. Let me emphasise that the forecasts are precisely that – forecasts – and not a promise. If the krone proves weaker than projected, or pressures in the economy persist, a higher policy rate than currently projected may be needed to bring inflation down to target. If inflation falls faster or unemployment rises more than projected, the policy rate may be lower than projected. 3/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches

As you remember, around this period of last year, one of the issues that had attracted a lot of public attention was the continued influx of fund flows into the emerging markets including Thailand. But this theme has suddenly changed when the US Federal Reserve signaled in May its intention to scale down, and eventually terminate, its asset purchasing program. The signaling immediately sparked turbulence in capital and currency markets in emerging economies and certainly serves as a recurring reminder that the linkages in the international economy are as psychological as they are mechanical. From June to August, Thailand, like other economies in the region, continued to witness further episodes of outflows as investors continued to reform their expectations towards the exact tapering timeline. 4. In the recent months, turbulence in the markets seems to have somewhat been moderated. This possibly reflects the fact that much has been priced in during the earlier outflow episodes, as well as the fact that it has been clearer to the markets now that any further tapering by the Fed will likely be done in an incremental manner. This is, however, not to say that short-term volatilities are no longer with us. The challenges going forward for policymakers are, therefore, not only to have the right set of policy responses in place to deal with these short-term volatilities, but also to make sure that all the market participants are well prepared for the scenarios that could be expected. 5.