samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Loans to the private sector have stabilised at growth rates somewhat above 5%, a rate of expansion which, in real terms, is broadly in line with the long-term average. Considering all the evidence relating to the first pillar, from a medium-term perspective, more liquidity is available than would be needed to finance sustainable, non-inflationary growth. However, given the current economic environment, we do not see the risk of this translating into inflationary pressure in the near future. Concerning the second pillar, recent short-term conjunctural indicators and survey data suggest that real GDP in the euro area has continued to grow only moderately in the third quarter of this year. This is in contrast to earlier expectations that a more pronounced upswing would occur in the course of this year. Obviously, the hesitant pace of economic expansion and current, lacklustre confidence reflect the significant degree of uncertainty that has been building up over recent months. This uncertainty is associated with geopolitical tensions, the evolution of oil prices and developments in stock markets. However, for the time being, the main scenario for the euro area remains that economic growth is expected to return to rates close to potential in the course of 2003. In fact, this expectation is consistent with all forecasts published by international organisations. Private forecasters, on the whole, also seem to share the same view. Moreover, financial markets have shown signs of stabilisation in recent weeks following a period of considerable turbulence.

It is now two and a half years since the Great Recession ended and the recovery began. Yet, despite both accommodative monetary policy and fiscal stimulus, the pace of improvement has been painstakingly slow. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is only just  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  back to where it stood at its pre-recession peak. Employment growth is barely enough to keep pace with the natural growth in the labor force and the unemployment rate remains extraordinarily high. However, recent news about the performance of the economy has been more promising. Motor vehicle sales have returned to their upward trend following supply disruptions caused by last spring’s horrible Japanese tsunami. U.S. manufacturing is expanding – boosted by the recovery in the automotive sector, as well as growing worldwide demand for materials and equipment in the energy, mining and agricultural sectors. Consumer spending outside of autos appears to be rising at a moderate rate, and employment growth, although still tepid, is showing signs of improvement. Initial unemployment insurance claims are down and layoffs have fallen, contributing to a decline in the unemployment rate of 0.5 percent over the past quarter. So, the economy is looking somewhat better than it did a few months ago. But this does not mean we are seeing a massive surge in economic activity. The data shows only modest improvement in growth to rates that are near or just somewhat above the economy’s longer-run potential. Moreover, the pace of economic activity needs to accelerate further to boost confidence.
Honourable Minister, over the past two years, we have noted with delight that financial institutions in Zambia are beginning to rise up to the challenge by beginning to broaden the scope of their financial services and extending their services beyond the traditional customers to include previously unbanked communities. In addition, the Zambian financial sector has in recent years experienced growth in numbers of both registered commercial banks and non – bank financial institutions. We in Zambia, therefore, see this Forum as being timely and providing a unique opportunity for African financial institutions to share knowledge and experiences on how best to promote financial inclusiveness, particularly among our rural and peri-urban communities who have since not been fully integrated in the financial systems of most of our countries. This entails that they are not effectively participating in the economic growth that is being experienced in these countries. This Forum also comes at a time that we in Zambia have just lost a statesman who was passionate about rural development and empowerment of all citizens. The conference theme therefore, is appropriate for us as we carry on the vision of our beloved late President, Dr. Levy Patrick Mwanawasa, SC (M.H.S.R.I.P). In this respect, we would also like to acknowledge the many expressions of sympathy extended to us during our time of mourning. 2  BIS Review 118/2008  Distinguished delegates, on behalf of AFRACA, I would like to thank our various presenters and panelists for accepting to facilitate our deliberations over the next two days.

I would therefore, like to implore all delegates to engage fully in these discussions and make the most of the wealth of knowledge and experience represented in the house. Ladies and Gentlemen, it is my pleasure and privilege once again to welcome you to the second AFRACA Central Banks’ Forum. I now wish to invite our distinguished Guest of Honour, the Minister of Finance and National Planning, Honourable Ng’andu P. Magande MP, to officially open this Forum. Honourable Minister! BIS Review 118/2008  3
In addition, it has become far too difficult to monitor the financial sector with its large, complex institutions that have operations and commitments all over the world. And even if monitoring had been simpler and better, there are still no effective mechanisms for counteracting bubbles. The regulation and supervision that has existed has proved inadequate to prevent either exaggerated risk taking in upturns or destructive herd behaviour in downturns. The global extent of the current crisis points to the need to further develop inter-national cooperation regarding financial regulation, supervision and crisis management. A number of proposals are accordingly being put forward at the international level concerning how regulation and supervision can be developed to reduce the risk of similar crises occurring in the future. 6  BIS Review 135/2009  The measures that are now being discussed by authorities around the world largely stem from the fact that in many areas supervision has focused far too much on the state of health of individual institutions and far too little on broader development trends, for example the expansion of credit in the economy, and on the links between institutions in the financial system. Above all, financial supervision has not sufficiently taken into account the risk of financial problems becoming highly contagious. It is, after all, the contagion effects that may have the most serious repercussions for the financial system and, ultimately, the real economy.

At the same time, faith in the ability of the financial markets to work effectively in all situations has been undermined. An effective financial sector contributes to growth and prosperity in the economy, and it is indisputable that more effective regulation and supervision are now required. In my opinion, however, it is important that the changes in the regulatory structures that are now being implemented are balanced and well considered. Above all, I believe that it is important to avoid the sum total of all the regulations that are introduced restricting growth or, in the worst case, giving rise to new crises. It would be a mistake to underestimate the inventiveness of the financial sector and its ability to circumvent regulations of different kinds. Producing a regulatory framework that makes the financial system safer and more secure without losing important welfare gains is really the major challenge that the authorities now face. Thank you! BIS Review 135/2009  9
Let me sketch some of the initiatives we have embarked on: •  a Financial Sector Technology & Innovation scheme to provide financial support;  •  a multi-agency effort to guide the development of efficient digital payments systems;  •  a technology-enabled regulatory reporting system and smart surveillance;  •  supporting a FinTech ecosystem; and  •  building skills and competencies in technology. First, the Financial Sector Technology & Innovation or “FSTI” scheme. I am happy to announce that MAS will commit $ million over the next five years under the “FSTI” scheme to provide support for the creation of a vibrant ecosystem for innovation. FSTI funds can be used for three purposes: •  innovation centres: to attract FIs to set up their R&D and innovation labs in Singapore. •  institution-level projects: to catalyse the development by FIs of innovative solutions that have the potential to promote growth, efficiency, or competitiveness. •  industry-wide projects: to support the building of industry-wide technology infrastructure that is required for the delivery of new, integrated services. Several FIs have already set up their innovation centres or labs in Singapore, some under the FSTI: •  DBS, Citibank, Credit Suisse, Metlife, UBS,  •  as well as a couple of others that are in the pipeline.

As more stores and restaurants introduce self-checkout facilities to improve productivity, we need a unified POS – a single terminal, preferably mobile – that will: –  allow merchants to enhance efficiency by simplifying front-to-back integration; and  –  enhance the shopping or dining experience of customers. Second, reduce the use of cash and cheques. •  It costs as much as $ to process each cheque. •  The cost of cash is less obvious but just as real: in transportation, collection, delivery and protection. •  We need to promote greater adoption of new payments technologies, including: –  electronic Direct Debit Authorisation; and  –  fund transfers using mobile numbers or social networks  MAS and the Ministry of Finance have been co-leading a multi-agency effort to address these issues and guide the development of efficient digital and mobile payment systems. •  The aim is to make payments swift, simple and secure. •  The vision is less cash, less cheques, fewer cards. Third, regulatory reporting and surveillance. As the financial system becomes increasingly complex and inter-connected, MAS needs to sharpen its surveillance of the system with more timely, comprehensive and accurate information to identify and mitigate emerging risks. The vision is an interactive, technology-enabled regulatory reporting framework which will: •  reduce ongoing reporting costs through the use of common data standards and automation;  •  enable the dissemination of anonymised information to industry analysts and academics for deeper analysis of the financial system and its risks.
Maja Kadievska-Vojnovik: Foreign investment’s importance to the Republic of Macedonia’s economy Speech by Ms Maja Kadievska-Vojnovik, Vice-Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the presentation of the Business Climate Survey in Macedonia, Macedonian-German Economic Association, Skopje, 10 April 2014. *  *  *  Dear Mr. Martin Knapp, Dear guests, It is an honor and pleasure to have this opportunity today to attend the presentation of the Business Climate Survey in the Republic of Macedonia, which is part of a regional survey of the representative offices of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce in Central and Southeast European countries. Namely, the Survey provides significant information on the companies’ perceptions about the Macedonian economy, and I would like to keep to some of its important aspects. It is more than clear that there are tight connections between Macedonian and German economy, which are being realized through several channels, such as: •  trade channels  •  capital flows and  •  through the remittance channel. First, Germany is and it raises its importance as the largest trade partner of the Republic of Macedonia. The share of the trade of goods with the EU member states in the total trade of RM of 52% before the crisis, in 2008, reached 67% in 2013.

4  BIS Review 121/2008  unease has also more tangibly spread to European banks and government agencies in several countries have felt obliged to intervene. We have tried to take into account the effects of the financial crisis in our forecasts. But it is of course difficult to know to what extent we could have captured all the effects the crisis may have had so far on the real economy. Moreover, we cannot know how the financial crisis will develop in future and how long it will last. Falling house prices have affected not just the United States, but many other countries. We have not been affected by this, although there appears to be a cooling in the housing market here, too. Another shock that has occurred during this downturn is that energy and commodity prices have risen substantially. Last summer the oil price reached new top levels and inflation rose around the world. However, since then prices have fallen. Seen in a longer-term perspective, rising commodity prices are not an uncommon feature prior to a turnaround in the economic cycle. This was the case, for instance, in the 1970s. As a consequence of the rising inflation, central banks around the world have been faced with a difficult situation, where the risk of contagion effects on other prices and wages must be assessed in an uncertain economic situation with receding growth. Another common cyclical pattern that is now repeating itself is that labour productivity is low, which is significant for cost pressures.
The key policy rate influences interest rates on interbank loans. Banks’ deposit and lending rates and bond yields depend on the current key policy rate and expectations as to future changes in this rate. Lending rates in state banks are also linked to the interest rate on interbank loans and bond yields. The aim of preventing inflation expectations from becoming entrenched below the operational target of 2.5 per cent was one of the main reasons the interest rate was lowered to a very low level in 2003 and 2004, when inflation receded and approached zero. Low interest rates have stimulated demand and output and gradually led to the prospect of higher inflation, which we are addressing by increasing the interest rate. The labour market is an important factor in how the interest rate functions. A rise in the interest rate curbs aggregate demand for goods, services and labour, and eases the pressure on wages and prices. These effects are amplified by the impact of the interest rate on the krone exchange rate. Higher interest rates contribute in isolation to krone appreciation and to lower profitability in the internationally exposed sector. This can result in lower employment and wage growth in this sector. Expectations with regard to price developments  2  BIS Review 139/2007  also influence wage demands and have an effect when companies adjust their prices. The inflation target can provide an anchor for these expectations.

Managing a crisis also requires laws and regulations that enable a problem institution to be closed down quickly or managed in some other way. Sometimes it is necessary to take measures very quickly, perhaps even the same day. It is not possible to wait for the usual court process to be completed. To avoid this leading to any form of malpractice, the injured party should have the opportunity to obtain redress and damages afterwards. We had this kind of a law in Sweden during our financial crisis. Another question is when a court should be allowed to stop important authority decisions intended to deal with acute bank problems, such as closing a problem bank. When a bank needs to be closed, a difficult balance arises, between the owners' interests and the savers' interest, which are both safeguarded in law. One very current example of this dilemma in Sweden is the case of Custodia. Both the country administrative court and Finansinspektionen (the Swedish financial supervisory  2  BIS Review 83/2006  authority) have made their assessments on the basis of what they should take into account, that is to say the customers' interests and the company and owners' interests respectively. However, I feel that it is very unsatisfactory that we in Sweden do not have a clear legal framework that can manage this type of situation and I assume that these difficulties will quickly be repaired. Crisis prevention also includes creating sufficiently strong public authorities.
There are two essential requirements: the ability to initiate an effective resolution strategy over the weekend, and a government entity—be it the Federal Reserve or the FDIC—that can provide a credible liquidity backstop to the recapitalized entity when it opens for business on Monday morning. If resolution cannot be accomplished in this timeframe, confidence would suffer and there would be contagion. Without a credible liquidity backstop, clients and counterparties would run, making it much more difficult for the recapitalized firm to conduct its business. I would also preserve the authority of the FSOC to designate non-banking firms as systemically important and subject to supervision by the Federal Reserve. As I see it, the designations of GE Capital and AIG were successful in two important respects. First, Federal Reserve supervision resulted in improved corporate governance and risk management. Second, it created incentives for the firms to alter their operations to become less systemically important in order to be dedesignated. We should also retain this designation tool because we cannot predict which firms and activities may emerge and become systemically important in the future. After all, I do not think many were focused on or worried about the activities of AIG’s Financial Products Group several years before the financial crisis, though in retrospect those activities proved to be systemically important. That part of the firm should have been better supervised and regulated.

Against the backdrop of fear and uncertainty, banks have tightened their lending and consumers have become more cautious in their spending. This will act as a drag on the euroarea economy going forward. A key constraint for both the US and euro-area, as well as many other advanced economies, is the limited policy space available to authorities. In these countries, monetary policy and fiscal stimulus have been pushed to their limits. Limited capacity to respond to new shocks thus represents a real risk for these economies, and for the global economy, that we must be weary of. In this setting, and given the deep-seated nature of the problems being faced, meaningful remedies rest just as much on political factors as on economic ones. How governments respond and how their electorates receive these responses will be an important source of uncertainty. In contrast, the rising economies in Asia offer a more positive outlook. Despite the slowdown in exports of many Asian countries, reflecting the softer global economic backdrop, domestic demand remains robust. More fundamentally, the continued rise of China and the formation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) will generate enormous economic opportunities for the region. As will be discussed later, the key challenge for Thailand will be how to optimally position ourselves to reap the full benefits of this trend. This brings me to the internal challenges.
Of course, I realize that most of you are already fully convinced of the need to seriously address the Year 2000 issue and are more interested in advice on how to tackle the problem. In this regard, I will focus on approaches that supervisors can take in five areas: (1) encouraging cooperation and coordination; (2) encouraging information sharing and disclosure; (3) developing assessment plans; (4) encouraging testing programs; and (5) developing and supporting contingency plans. Cooperation and Coordination The single most important piece of advice that can be given on the Year 2000 problem is to work cooperatively with others. This applies at a number of levels. First, every organization should develop an internal Year 2000 plan that encourages cooperation between different parts of the organization. For example, a successful Year 2000 program for an organization will encompass not only the software programs that are maintained by the information technology department, but will also address the Year 2000 risks that may be posed by the embedded chips in the firm’s buildings, including heating and cooling, building security and safety systems. The benefits of cooperation include the sharing of information, so that the resources required to obtain valuable information can be reduced. Cooperation across organizations is also essential to the development of joint industry initiatives, including testing programs. For example, we have seen industry associations play a very valuable role in raising industry awareness and providing a focal point for the sharing of information and the development of joint Year 2000 initiatives.

Critical infrastructure such as transport, water, power and telecommunications systems are also likely to be affected. Nearly all aspects of the economy in every country are therefore potentially at risk because of the widespread dependence on a country’s core infrastructure. The unprecedented scope of the Year 2000 problem means that a critical aspect of the issue is the management challenge. Substantial management resources are needed to coordinate the efforts to assess, repair, and test affected systems prior to the fixed deadline of BIS Review 85/1998  -2-  January 1, 2000. At the Federal Reserve, for example, we have created a number of management positions within our organization that are focused exclusively on different aspects of our Year 2000 preparations. A final point that underscores the need for urgent and sustained action is the increasing focus on the issue by the media, by the public and by market observers such as the rating agencies. Over the course of 1999, the extent of Year 2000 preparations by financial organizations will become the subject of ever more intensive scrutiny. As supervisors, therefore, we must do all we can to support the efforts of market participants to address the problem effectively, and to build confidence among others that this is being accomplished. While we must make it clear that supervisors cannot solve the problem, we can help mobilize others to take the necessary steps.