samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The financial sector will have to push ahead with regulatory adjustments and manage the transition to new business models, while in manufacturing, digitalisation is going to be a particular focus of attention. Our country’s future welfare depends critically on how well we master these challenges. Page 3/5  Berne, 15 December 2016 Thomas Jordan  News conference  Exchange rates, interest rates and inflation expectations  I will now review changes to monetary conditions since the middle of the year. The last half year has been shaped by the surprising outcomes of a number of political events. The Brexit decision led to a significant devaluation of the pound sterling and generated upward pressure on safe-haven currencies. Thanks to our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market, we were able to cushion the effect of the additional pressure on the Swiss franc, which can often build up in such phases of increased market volatility. Equally, neither the US elections nor the Italian constitutional referendum caused any significant changes in the value of the franc overall. On a trade-weighted basis, the real external value of the franc hardly changed over the course of the year. An analysis of nominal exchange rates since our last assessment in June shows that the franc has appreciated slightly against the euro. Against the dollar, meanwhile, it has depreciated somewhat.

One reason for the appreciation of the US dollar against the Swiss franc and most other currencies is the substantial increase in long-term interest rates in the US, particularly following the presidential election. Long-term yields on Swiss Confederation bonds have also risen, but yield increases have been less pronounced here than in the US. The interest rate differential with the US has thus widened. Short-term rates in Switzerland are virtually unchanged, with the yield curve steepening as a result. Inflation expectations in Switzerland remain stable. Most households, companies and financial analysts anticipate that inflation will be slightly positive in the short to medium term. This view is substantiated in the surveys conducted by the SNB’s delegates for regional economic relations. Despite weak inflation in recent years, long-term inflation expectations have changed very little and remain firmly anchored in the range which we equate with price stability. Monetary policy outlook  Ladies and gentlemen, let me summarise my key points. Even in times of turbulence such as those witnessed in the last six months, our monetary policy has proved its worth. The negative interest rate has partially restored the traditional interest rate differential with other currencies and has thus made Swiss franc investments less attractive. During periods of high volatility, our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has a stabilising effect on the exchange rate.
Lastly, private bankers must also bear in mind that there is a very wide range of sophistication and investment experience among private banking clients from Mainland China. So private banks must ensure that their account managers take extra care in offering investment advice and marketing investment products to the less sophisticated clients. Ladies and gentlemen, private banking is just a special type of banking: it is all about trust and service. It takes a private bank many, many decades to build up trust, but such trust can be destroyed overnight. My vision, which I am sure is shared by many of you, is that Hong Kong will become the most competitive and dynamic private banking hub in the region in the years to come. This is a highly achievable aspiration if both the industry and the regulators work closely together to develop, nurture and protect the reputation of the private banking industry as well as the professionalism and ethical standards of its practitioners. Thank you very much. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5

The first implication should not be of excessive concern as long as the unemployment rate remains low, which is the case for Thailand. This is because the market mechanism will allow efficient adjustment as uncompetitive firms have to either upgrade themselves, or close down and free up labor resources to more competitive firms. This reallocation process implies that the country makes a better use of labor resources and should therefore yield higher productivity. At present, Thailand’s unemployment rate hovers steadily around 1 percent despite strong baht appreciation in recent years. In the meantime, export growth has remained robust with a swift recovery from the global crisis. These developments possibly indicate that our export sectors have adjusted themselves well and labor resources are being allocated more efficiently. In line with this view, the baht appreciation has somewhat catalyzed the adjustment of Thai economy to a more efficient use of labor resources. In fact, Thailand has continued to face a shortage of labor supply and has to employ immigrant workers from neighboring countries. This tight labor market phenomenon creates incentive for firms to shift factor of production from labor to capital. This shortage of labor will then accentuate my second implication of a strong baht, since the shortage of labor, in addition to cheaper capital goods in baht term, gives incentive for investors to make imported-capital investments. This is the part where the private sector role is essential, especially as Thailand has benefited from immense foreign direct investment in which Japan played the top role.
On the demand side, the relative importance of China and the US in powering the world economy may help to explain why world oil demand grew quite so strongly relative to world GDP last year. This year, however, the sharp rise in prices owes at least as much to supply factors. Allowing for these caveats, this is still a much stronger world economic background than, say, 2001. But there are several important risks to this outlook. The first concerns oil prices. So far the world economy has apparently taken a tripling in oil prices in its stride, thanks to the much lower oil intensity of output, and the greater flexibility in labour markets, in most advanced economies compared with a generation ago. It is also true that the short term capacity of oil producing countries to spend their increased revenues is now much greater than it was in the 70s. This helps to explain why consensus forecasts for world GDP growth next year have remained remarkably steady. But there is a very high level of uncertainty about future oil prices. Judging by the oil futures curve, the central view is that prices are likely to remain high, at around $ per barrel for the next few years at least. This is in contrast to 2000, when the oil futures curve was downward sloping. But the range of current Consensus forecasts is very wide – from around $ and $ per barrel.

Oil supply is traditionally slow to respond to changing prices – lead times for developing new fields are often around 3-7 years; and there are constraints on refinery capacity which may influence petrol prices. This is bound to have implications for the UK and for our European markets. Over the past decade, we have benefited from the downward pressure on imported goods prices exerted directly and indirectly by low cost production in Asia. Even if these trends continue, as in principle they could for some time, it is becoming increasingly clear that consumers may also need to contend with upward price pressures as world energy markets adapt to meet the needs of emerging Asia. The second key area of risk is global imbalances. These pose risks to foreign exchange markets and to world activity. Higher oil prices have intensified the scale of the problem. Yet we seem no closer to a denouement – indeed, as the US current deficit topped 6% of GDP, the dollar has tended to strengthen. What does this mean for the UK? I find it extremely hard to predict how sterling’s effective rate would be affected, were there to be a major re rating of the dollar. But a resolution of global imbalances which was accompanied by global recession would represent a major challenge for us – one to which, I suspect, we are now less well placed to respond than we were in 2001.
And the culprits would be the handful of hedge funds having little or no interest in Hong Kong, not to mention in our well being, other than it being a free market which they can manipulate and from which they can take money, somewhat like an ATM machine, as others have put it. The HKSAR administration is run by people who have put Hong Kong on the map as the freest economy in the world. It is clear to us that there are, again quoting my great teacher Sir Philip, “imperfections in the operation of the market mechanism”, possibly leading to “economic inefficiency” and “social distress”. So the administration decided to intervene to deter currency manipulation, to get rid of the unnecessary and unfair pain that has been inflicted on the community as reflected in the currency manipulation interest rate premium, and to avoid market adjustments overshooting in panic into an uncontrollable tailspin. Consistent with Sir Philip’s view that interventionism should be “relevant to the maintenance of economic stability in Hong Kong”, and with Exchange Fund Advisory Committee backing, Financial Secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen made the order to intervene in the free play of market forces. There has been no departure from the long established policy of positive non-interventionism that has served Hong Kong so well in the past. Those who think that we have so departed should try and refresh themselves of what this policy really means. And no one needs to take my word for it.

And the reforms do pay off: the remarkable labour productivity growth performance in some network industries in Europe over the last ten years provides a perfect example of the positive impact on labour productivity growth of easing regulations and fostering competition. For example, in the telecommunication sector which was largely liberated in the course of the 1990s, hourly labour productivity grew on average by 8.5% in the euro area over the period 1996-2003 compared to 6.9% in the US. The euro area HICP index for telecommunications fell by 35% relative to the overall euro area HICP index in the period 1998-2005. The third prerequisite for higher growth in the euro area is the unlocking of business potential by creating an entrepreneurial-friendly economic environment. This includes lowering costs imposed by public sector administrations for existing firms and business start-ups. Let me illustrate this with some figures. According to the World Bank, in 2004, the average cost of starting a business with up to 50 employees in the euro area (excluding Luxembourg) is estimated to have been around ten times larger than in the US 12 . The policy implication of lowering business regulation is that EU countries can help to raise economic growth by avoiding an excessively restrictive regulatory environment for firms. The immense importance of this issue is increasingly appreciated by European governments and several initiatives at national or EU level have started to implement actions for a “better regulation”.
I believe that we can enhance our levels of productivity by maximizing knowledge, especially in the subject of finance. Over these three days, a total of 100 booths will be featured during this carnival, each offering a variety of finance-related activities and opportunities. This includes facilities to open a bank account, assistance in loan applications, CCRIS checks, debt management advice (by AKPK and the Small Debt Resolution Scheme), platforms that allow consumers to seek redress solutions, opportunities for innovative SMEs to submit business proposals as well as group lecture sessions. On behalf of the Bank and other related stakeholders, I sincerely hope that you may fully utilise the wealth of opportunities available in this Finance Carnival by visiting the exhibition booths and participating in dedicated activities designed for fellow visitors. Our aspiration is for this event to be a powerful enabler to increase knowledge and awareness on the importance of financial management, which, if done wisely, possesses the distinct potential of uplifting lives. Finally, allow me to take this opportunity to express my gratitude and appreciation to the committee, the ministry of finance, relevant government agencies and financial institutions, whose efforts have all contributed towards realising the success of this Carnival. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches

Even if Finansinspektionen’s justification for the mortgage ceiling was to protect consumers, the measure can also be used for macroprudential supervision. From a stability perspective, the credit risks in the banks’ credit portfolios could be reduced if the rule contributes towards reducing the economic vulnerability of households. The loan ceiling may also contribute towards more stable price formation on the housing market, as the rules influence how much money households are willing to put into purchasing housing. If this counteracts excessive price variations on the housing market and the unsustainable accumulation of debt among households, it will also likewise contribute towards reducing the risk of loan losses in the banking system. 12  See, for example Lim, C., et al., (2011), “Macroprudential Policy: What Instruments and How to Use Them? Lessons from Country Experiences”, IMF Working Paper, 11/238. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  A loan ceiling based on income would have largely the same characteristics as one based on the value of housing, but may have certain advantages. If debts are not linked to price movements on the housing markets, this avoids the problem of price increases and indebtedness reciprocally being pushed upwards in a rising spiral. Effectively combating future financial crises will require flexibility An efficient financial system is a prerequisite for a modern economy. A shock leading to the breakdown of any of the financial system’s functions can have major economic costs in the form of sharp falls in GDP and high unemployment.
Setting the table Classic and modern crises In the financial crisis that initiated the Great Depression, we saw a classic banking panic. At the peak of an economic expansion, a stock market crash signaled a revision to growth expectations, or possibly a change in the willingness of people to assume risk. Around the country many banks (whose deposits were not insured) experienced difficulty in meeting depositors’ withdrawal demands, and bank runs began to occur, at first sporadically. In these runs, depositors formed lines stretching from teller windows to outside the bank, clearly indicating to the public that the bank was in distress. Bank runs waxed and waned for a few years prior to the generalized runs that preceded F.D.R.’s declaration of a bank holiday. F.D.R. explained well the consequences of a bank run: the banks that were run could only close their doors, or sell their assets at panic prices. Either of those actions conferred negative externalities on the economy more broadly. With the closure of a bank, the community lost access to credit and to a safe place into which it could deposit its paychecks and savings. The knowledge about borrowers and their creditworthiness was lost, and even if other banks would expand their business, that loss of information was costly to the efficiency of the economy, and in notable research Ben Bernanke (1983) measured the very negative effect that bank closures had on economic performance.

The complication is that while most financial crises have been preceded by a credit boom, not all credit booms have been followed by a financial crisis. In fact, a credit boom has been followed by a financial crisis in only about 30 percent of the cases.6 Consequently, there are good booms, which don’t end in a crisis, and bad booms, or “booms gone wrong” that do end in a crisis. Given that credit booms often accommodate the real and pressing needs of a growing economy, simply preventing credit booms, if that were even possible, could have the effect of choking off desirable growth and thus be more costly for society over the longer run. Nevertheless, it is difficult a priori to distinguish good and bad booms, and, furthermore, to determine the mechanisms that generate crises when the economy has become vulnerable to one, that is, when the economy has high debt, a weakening macroeconomy, and other such elements. Even so, as previous studies have indicated, debt growth shifts the conditional distribution of economic outcomes to put more weight on events in which debtors must  5  See Borio, Drehmann, and Tstsaronis (2011), Schularick and Taylor (2012), and Reinhart and Rogoff (2011). 6  See Dell’Ariccia, Igan, Laeven, and Tong (2015), and Gorton and Ordonez (2015). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  unexpectedly cut back their spending plans to repay debt, a vulnerability that is not present in the absence of debt.
Exports are growing, and stock markets are up. As a regional grouping, we have continued to integrate our economies while individually pursuing restructuring. ASEAN is now back on its feet, up and running again. The necessity of deeper integration The need to broaden and deepen economic co-operation is a necessity recognised by ASEAN more than ten years ago. In 1992, ASEAN started the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) to boost intra-ASEAN trade and establish the region as a common area for manufacturing operations. At that time, the catalyst for greater integration was globalisation. Competition was getting tougher. Europe was consolidating and integrating itself to form the Single European Market. In North America, the US, Canada and Mexico were preparing to form the North America Free Trade Area (NAFTA). NAFTA provided US manufacturers an attractive, low cost manufacturing base in Mexico. Mexico too expected to benefit from new investments from the US, which would create jobs and bring growth and prosperity to the country. Both the Single European Market and NAFTA strengthened the competitiveness of the continents, and threatened to divert investments away from Asia. Determined not to lose out, ASEAN responded with AFTA. In retrospect, AFTA is perhaps the most important decision on economic cooperation that ASEAN members have taken together. Today, the world is even more globalised than compared to 1992. Competition is once again at our door step. This time however, the competition comes not from Europe or Mexico, but from much closer to home. China and India are growing very rapidly.

Lee Hsien Loong: ASEAN - the way ahead Speech by Mr Lee Hsien Loong, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore and Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the opening ceremony of the ASEAN Finance Ministers meeting (AFMM), Singapore, 7 April 2004. *  *  *  Finance Ministers of ASEAN member states The ASEAN Secretary-General Ladies and Gentlemen Let me first welcome all of you to Singapore for the 8th ASEAN Finance Ministers Meeting. Introduction In 1997, ASEAN was hit by its worst-ever economic crisis. The Asian Financial Crisis dealt a severe blow to all of us. One after another, our countries succumbed to the flight of capital and investors. Several economies were on the verge of collapse. Before we could fully recover from the Crisis, we were confronted again with yet another shock, this time a global economic downturn. The September 11 attacks in America followed shortly. More recently, ASEAN was hit by SARS and the avian flu. ASEAN has taken quite a few hard punches in the last few years. Although we might have been bruised, we are far from being knocked out. ASEAN countries strived to repair the damage, to recapitalise banking systems, to restructure companies in difficulties, and most importantly to restore confidence. Despite the setbacks, ASEAN countries continued to embrace globalization. We continued to look outwards, do our best to attract FDI, liberalise trade, and broaden our linkages with the outside world. Now most ASEAN economies are on the mend. Economic growth has been strong in many countries.
This is in fact going to be a growing challenge in much of Asia too. Finally, creating good jobs. In Singapore, the financial industry employs close to 200,000 people, most of them in relatively well-paying jobs. Technology will replace many tasks and even whole jobs in finance. But with proactive upgrading of skills to keep pace with new technologies, and with the continuing growth of our financial centre, we must and will provide good jobs in finance for many years into the future. How finance is being transformed 14. The digitalisation of finance is picking up pace, and will transform banking. 15. There are essentially three key forces driving this transformation: pervasive mobile internet access, the rise of big data, and the growth of platform ecosystems as a major new business 2/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  model in finance. The three forces are also reinforcing each other, and together transforming banking in more fundamental ways than we have seen before. 16. Smartphones and tablets are ubiquitous. Pervasive broadband access has coupled mobility with connectivity – so interaction is real-time and unconstrained by where you are. The smartphone is now our grocery store, our restaurant, our bank, and much more. 17. Second, big data. We have unprecedented computing power, coupled with cloud technologies that allows us to store and retrieve large volumes of information at low cost and ondemand. Firms are also gathering a lot more data from a wide variety of sources, including social media and e-commerce platforms.

There is therefore little time to spare, in the run up to a revival of the sukuk market and the lead time it takes to promulgate tax exemption rules for Islamic finance transactions; financial market players in Hong Kong must gear themselves up to embrace the change coming your way. Secondly, there is in general a greater awareness of Islamic finance within the local financial community, particularly among banks. Banks in Hong Kong are in the position of being both investors in, and suppliers of Islamic finance products. Instruments, ranging from retail  BIS Review 19/2009  3  Islamic investment funds and Islamic treasury placements at the interbank and corporate level, to Islamic loan syndication, have started to emerge in Hong Kong within the past year. Financial market participants have also set up Islamic banking windows here to signal their readiness to cater for these types of activities. But even with all the significant developments achieved here in such a short period of time, more still needs to be done. While the recognition of Islamic finance as a viable fund-raising and investment alternative is gradually making its way to the corporate sector in Hong Kong, the pace of development is still rather slow. Furthermore, this market awareness should also be promoted beyond banks and other types of financial institutions to all related service industries, such as investment managers, asset managers, securities and brokerage houses, exchanges and commodity firms, pension funds, insurance agencies, solicitors, accountants, and trustees.