samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
On the basis of current oil futures prices, which are well below the level observed a few weeks ago, the expected path of annual HICP inflation in 2016 is now significantly lower compared with the outlook in early December. Inflation rates are currently expected to remain at very low or negative levels in the coming months and to pick up only later in 2016. Thereafter, supported by our monetary policy measures and the expected economic recovery, inflation rates should continue to recover, but risks of second-round effects should be monitored closely. A more comprehensive picture of the impact of oil prices and other external and domestic factors on the outlook for HICP inflation will become available in the March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, which will also cover the year 2018. Turning to the monetary analysis, recent data confirm solid growth in broad money (M3), with the annual rate of growth of M3 standing at 5.1% in November 2015, after 5.3% in October. Annual growth in M3 continues to be mainly supported by its most liquid components, with the narrow monetary aggregate M1 growing at an annual rate of 11.2% in November, after 11.8% in October. Loan dynamics continued the path of gradual recovery observed since the beginning of 2014. The annual rate of change of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) increased to 0.9% in November 2015, up from 0.6% in October.

Developments in loans to enterprises continue to reflect the lagged relationship with the business cycle, credit risk and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets. The annual growth rate of loans to households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) increased to 1.4% in November, compared with 1.2% in October. The bank lending survey for the euro area for the fourth quarter of 2015 points to further improvements in demand for bank loans, supported by the low level of interest rates, financing needs for investment purposes and housing market prospects. Credit standards eased further on loans to enterprises, notably owing to increasing competitive pressures in retail banking, and reverted to a net easing on loans to households for house purchase. Overall, the monetary policy measures in place since June 2014 have clearly improved borrowing conditions for both firms and households, as well as credit flows across the euro area. To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed the effectiveness of the monetary policy measures in place and the need to review and possibly reconsider our monetary policy stance at our next meeting in early March in order to secure a return of inflation rates towards levels below, but close to, 2%. Monetary policy is focused on maintaining price stability over the medium term and its accommodative stance supports economic activity. However, in order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute decisively.
See Chapter 9, Article 13 of the Instrument of Government. The preliminary works show that the Riksbank's independence pursuant to Chapter 9, Article 13 of the Instrument of Government covers all monetary policy decisions and also tasks outside the area of monetary policy, which according to the Treaty are incumbent on the European System of Central Banks (ESBC), as the Riksbank is a part of the ESCB (see Bill 1997/98:40 p. 76). 11 When the very first Executive Board, which took up office in 1999, was appointed, a transitional provision allowed the members to be appointed for different lengths of time, ranging from 1 to 6 years, so that only one member’s period of office would expire each year. However, with effect from the second mandate period, all of the members were appointed for a term of office of 6 years. A legal amendment in 2008 meant that a member could be appointed for a period of 5 or 6 years. For a history of the members’ periods of office, see Sveriges Riksbank (2020a). 10  4 [20]  In international measurements of central bank independence, the Riksbank is usually placed among the top 10. 12 I think that the main benefit with the new act was that monetary policy could be conducted on a more long-term basis, which becomes clear when one compares with the 1970s and 1980s, when the problems of excessively high inflation were managed with the aid of repeated devaluations.

His concern “that the variety and difficulty of administrative problems have so increased, and the tools and techniques for solving them have so developed, as to render administration more than ever a science” resulted in the creation of the Institute of Public Administration in 1957. To this day, the Institute continues to provide education, training and research to the public sector, enabling better policy making through a better understanding of the Irish economy. In addition, Whitaker was instrumental in setting up the Economic and Social Research Institute – the first institution to provide independent research and analysis of the Irish economy. 3 For example, nine Regional Technical Colleges were established during the 1970s to provide vocational tertiary level training. The Industrial Development Authority ensured that government funding of higher education adapted to meet businesses’ increasing demands for skilled labour in areas such as engineering and computer sciences, helping to ensure people could develop the skills necessary to work in the expanding sectors. 4 Whitaker, TK (1955/1956) 'Capital formation, saving and economic progress', Dublin: Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, Vol. XVIX, pp. 184-209. 2  2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  The Irish experience over the past half century reinforces the lessons learnt in the UK from the three profound technological revolutions – institutions are essential to smooth the major transitions and to ensure their promise is realised by as many as possible.
In the context of the economic recovery in 2021, the insurance sector saw a return to growth in all its activities: net inflows increased by 18% compared with the previous year. This allowed insurers to consolidate their solvency, with the average Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) coverage ratio rising to 253% after the slight decline seen during the Covid crisis. Page 2 of 8  French banks in turn saw a “return to normal” in 2021 in terms of dividend payouts, which was completely justified. Their solvency ratio, which was already solid, increased even further over the year, reaching 16% for the top six French banking groups. Their profitability also improved (their RoE stood at 7.1% at end-2021 compared with 4.6% a year earlier and 6.4% in 2019): it is close to the European average but still structurally too low. Page 3 of 8  Banks continued to play their full role in financing the economy, providing a robust supply of credit: 4% growth in loans to SMEs and even 6% growth in residential housing loans, which is a particularly high rate. Credit in France is continuing to grow faster than the economy, so private debt – that of corporations and households – is still rising. With regard to corporate loans, I said here last year that the gradual winding down of the government aid measures posed a manageable risk to the financial sector. Indeed, the wave of business failures feared by some has not in fact materialised.

At the end of April 2022, the total number of failures over the  Page 4 of 8 previous 12 months was 43% lower than the figure for April 2019.i And even more importantly, according to our estimates, more than 95% of stateguaranteed loans (SGLs) should be repaid on time. Half the SGLs granted in 2020 started to be repaid in 2021; repayments on the other half began as of April this year. True, the shock of the war in Ukraine is slowing our rate of growth, and I shall come back to this. But the soundness of our banks and businesses at the end of 2021, with the emergence from the Covid crisis, gives strong grounds for confidence. There is nothing today that justifies, in the face of certain warnings or excessive demands, a return to the exceptional measures that we saw in 2020: either in bank prudential regulations or in terms of general, untargeted support for businesses. The Credit Mediation service, which is attached to the Banque de France has received very few requests for the restructuring of SGLs (fewer than 200 cases out of a total of 700,000 SGLs granted). France has the strongest banking and insurance sector in the euro area: this is a major asset for our economy, and one that our country is not always sufficiently aware of or positive about. This justifies us paying close attention to a healthy regulatory framework. II.
But in the nest step, the Asian Bond Fund will extend the investment into the various local bond markets in local currencies. The Fund will be calling on Asian countries. It will be ready to invest, but only if the market builds up the right conditions, and removes all the impediments. And you know that until the last impediment is removed, the market will not be attractive to foreign investors. And since these impediments often extend across many government departments and functions, as well as the judicial system, so only the strongest political commitment can remove all of them. So will the political commitment come forward? With money waiting at the door, and with peer pressure and available assistance within Asia, I think there is a good chance that it will. Someone asked me earlier how much of the Asian international reserves will have to go into these Asian Bond Funds. Well, I hope not a lot. It is not the job of the authorities to replace the market. What the authorities try to do is simply to act as a catalyst. In the long run, private money in Asia should find its own way to invest in Asia, whether it is savings from insurance companies in Japan, mutual funds in Hong Kong or pension funds in Singapore investing in corporate bonds all over Asia. Will there be enough opportunity for investing in Asia? Certainly! Many Asian countries still have very young populations. Half of Thais are under the age of 30.

Harmonization of standards and codes to international best practice must be done. Hedging markets must be available for both currency risk and interest rate risk, and this may mean a rethink on capital controls. Perhaps a gradual step-by-step relaxation in needed. 2  BIS Review 28/2003  Transparency is also required both in price discovery and the management of both the macroeconomy and the individual corporates. The legal system must respect creditors’ rights, and for investment products to be available for sale across Asian countries, a uniform single passport of consumer production by the SEC’s must be made. Now comes the final question. What is the purpose of the Asian Bond Fund? You may recall that the Asian Bond Fund was announced on 2 June 2003 at US $ billion by 11 central banks in East Asia and Pacific countries. Initially it will invest in sovereign and quasi-sovereign bonds issued by Asian governments in the international markets. This by itself already sparked a keen interest in Asian bonds. I know of at least one Asian central bank that had not invested in Asian bonds before, other than in JGB’s, but has now started buying directly in addition to investment in the Asian Bond Fund. Thailand is now looking at doing this also. I am sure there will be more central banks both in Asia and outside looking at Asian bonds at the international level because of this initiative.
Norway had a plentiful supply of labour from new EU member countries and experienced several years of high output growth. At the same time, the inflation target for monetary policy adopted in 2001 provided a sound anchor for inflation expectations. BIS Review 44/2010  3  Autumn 2008 In 2008, the expansionary period was drawing to a close. Costs had risen sharply, credit growth had been strong, the key policy rate had been raised and house prices had started to fall. Petroleum revenue spending over the central government budget had increased, but employment in traditional industries was still high. Despite Norway’s high cost level, merchandise exports and supplies of goods and services to the oil industry held up well due to strong demand. Instead of a gradual slowdown, economic growth came to an abrupt halt in autumn 2008 when the global financial crisis peaked. Demand for Norway’s exports fell markedly. Norwegian banks proved to be sensitive to the credit freeze in global money markets and stopped providing new loans. 1 However, Norwegian banks were not as exposed to loan losses – at home and abroad – as banks in other countries. The economic downturn proved to be milder in Norway than elsewhere, but the banking sector seems also to have performed its craft fairly well. Moreover, government and central bank liquidity provision measures were effective. The liquidity crisis passed quickly and a solvency crisis did not occur in Norway’s banking system.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Current challenges confronting central banks Opening and keynote address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the SEACEN-BNM Banking and Financial Law School 2009 "Current Challenges in Central Banking – Legal Perspective", Lanai Kijang, 24 September 2009. *  *  *  It is my great pleasure to speak at the 5th Banking and Financial Law School 2009, jointly organized by the South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, the Institute of Bankers Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia. The theme for this year's Banking and Financial Law School on "the legal perspective of the current challenges in Central Banking" has particular relevance in the present environment. Indeed, global attention is now focussed on an overhaul of the financial architecture in the efforts to address the fundamental weaknesses that have surfaced in this recent global financial crisis. The current policy debates cover a wide ranging set of issues that include far-reaching regulatory reforms to strengthen the foundations for financial stability, institutional arrangements to achieve more efficient functioning of financial markets, effective coordination of financial stability measures and greater clarity of central bank mandates in promoting monetary and financial stability. The theme of this conference also has special relevance to us at Bank Negara Malaysia, as our new Central Bank of Malaysia Act 2009 will come into force later this year.
Fintech, as it is known, seems to be the next big thing. It’s true that, in continental Europe, fintechs still account for just a small share of the markets for banking, payment services and asset management. Still, over the past years, they have received a lot of attention and a lot of funds. Fintechs are on the rise. They have entered the markets, and they are competing with banks – at least in some parts of the value chain. The question is: where will this innovation take us? Is it the end of banking as we know it? Will it create new risks? As I said before, it is hard to guess how innovations will evolve and easy to get it wrong. That said, let us take a very brief look at some potential futures. Scenario one: banks might embrace the digital trend and team up with fintechs. For banks this would be one of the more benign outcomes. And it seems to be happening right now. Scenario two: fintechs might break up the value chain of banking. Banks would end up losing revenue, market share and direct contact with clients. The result might be a more fragmented market where some players operate outside the scope of regulation and supervision. Scenario three: banks might still end up being crowded out. At the same time, however, the fintechs could be swallowed up by big tech companies, such as Google, Amazon and Facebook. The market would become more concentrated, less competitive and less diversified.

Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the January 2016 Inflation Report, Ankara, 26 January 2016. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests, Welcome to the briefing held to convey the main messages of the Inflation Report of January 2016. The report typically summarizes the economic outlook underlying monetary policy decisions, shares our evaluations on macroeconomic developments and presents our medium-term inflation forecasts, which were revised in view of the developments in the last quarter, along with our monetary policy stance. In addition to the main text, the report includes seven boxes entailing up-to-date and interesting analyses on various topics. The boxes in this Report look into the sources of the changes in end-2015 inflation forecasts, offer projections about the repercussions of base effects on inflation in 2016, and analyze the dynamics of inflation in Turkey. Moreover, there are boxes that elaborate on Turkey’s changing export market share, study the relationship between consumer confidence indices and financial volatilities, analyze the effects of minimum wage hikes on overall wages, and scrutinize the relationship between loans and growth by sectors. The titles of the boxes are shown on the slide. All of these analyses shed light on noteworthy issues in the Turkish economy. I strongly recommend that you read these boxes, which will soon be published on our website.
Several studies and decades of experience in the industrial countries have shown that a stable, low, and easily predictable inflation rate leads to the most favourable conditions for long-term economic growth. •  The notion of a monetary union is based on the optimum currency area theory formulated by Robert Mundell in the early 1960s. Multilateral fixing of currency rates and joining of monetary policies offers several benefits: •  excessive fluctuations in exchange rates, i.e. in the price of money will disappear; it will be easier to predict the price of money in the future and therefore, easier to plan the future;  •  improved certainty will reduce the cost of hedging currency risks and will avoid such undesirable developments like the ones in Estonia that accompanied the Russian crisis in mid-1990s; the costs related to currency exchange can, of course, only be eliminated by a common currency;  •  most importantly, pegging the currencies should lead to faster economic and financial integration, boost the flow of goods between countries, and enable convergence of market interest rates and improved price comparison. •  An additional advantage of a large currency area is greater seigniorage income earned on issuing bank notes, since the money can be used outside its own economic zone. The role of the euro as an international financing, settlement, and reserve currency has been consistently growing.

•  In conclusion we can say that Estonia has been quite successful so far. For a successful future, we should first realise how far Estonia has progressed. Then we can decide where Estonia wants to be headed. When we know what we want to achieve in the future, we have to answer another, often an unpleasant question: how, through which measures, and at what price can we achieve the desired result? And then there is nothing more to it but to embark on taking purposeful action... It is as easy as that. Or is it? •  It is a fact that as Estonia is evolving into a ‘boring and stable European country’, our society is supporting change for the sake of itself less and less. Stability, keeping one's word, and honouring contracts concluded either directy or indirectly is becoming an increasingly highly regarded value in the Estonian society. •  As Governor of Eesti Pank I would hereby like to recall that if anyone in Estonia has the right - and obligation - to stress the importance of stability, it is the central bank. Some very successful examples illustrating the fact that stability is held in high regard are the Estonian kroon that has held out splendidly for twelve years and the Estonian monetary system that has not been ‘copied from Europe’ but has been structured bearing in mind our specific situation.
Although the latest news on the U.S. economy is somewhat more encouraging than that from earlier in the year, we should not take much solace from that. After a very weak first half, when GDP growth was less than 1 percent, economic activity has strengthened somewhat and inflation pressures are starting to ease. Growth in the third quarter is currently estimated to be 2.5 percent, and recent indicators suggest growth in the fourth quarter could be somewhat higher. This modest rebound reflects in part the passing of transitory factors such as the damping effect on household and business spending power from rises in energy and food prices as well as the supply disruptions related to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. However, as we look toward 2012, the U.S. economy continues to face several obstacles to a robust recovery. Accordingly I expect growth of about 2.75 percent for 2012. Consumer price inflation has begun to moderate. This moderation is just starting to become evident on a 12-month time horizon – in which consumer price inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is rising at about a 3.5 percent annual rate. Given current expectations for the path of energy prices – taken from futures markets – consumer price inflation on a year-over-year basis should continue to fall over the next few months. We cannot be satisfied with the current state of the economy or the outlook for the next few years.

For example, if you look at my preferred measure of underlying inflation, called trimmed-mean inflation—which removes the most volatile price movements—it’s been running at 2 percent. This measure of inflation hasn’t shown any signs of trending up or down. That said, I will be watching developments closely for signs of a persistent shift away from our 2 percent long-run goal. As I mentioned, the economy started the year with a lot of momentum. But there are reasons to believe that the surge in growth won’t persist through the remainder of the year. Taking into account of all the indicators we follow, I anticipate a step-down of economic growth, from the 3 percent growth recorded last year to a still-solid pace of about 2-1/4 percent in 2019. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  This is good news. It’s above the economy’s underlying potential, but not unsustainably so. Healthy economic growth should in turn fuel solid job gains, higher wages for workers, and some further declines in unemployment. The strong economy and labor market should also support inflation returning to 2 percent, the Federal Reserve’s long-run goal. The Global Picture In addition to the positive data we’ve been getting for the U.S., we’ve also seen encouraging signs that risks from global economic and financial markets are abating. Last year there were worries that the global growth slowdown centered in China and Europe would spill over onto our shores. This was one factor contributing to a more downbeat assessment of U.S. growth and the stock market sell-off.