samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I am often asked what we on the official side, or more particularly in the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, plan to do in order to ensure that our financial sector remains competitive and growthorientated. I find myself torn between replying "Nothing at all" and "Everything possible". In fact both would be correct in their own way. "Nothing at all" seems appropriate if one is content to allow market forces and the inexorable working of comparative advantage to fashion economic development. It is also consistent with Hong Kong's style of non-intervention. Picking winners is not easy. The offer of sweeteners, first to one sector then another, now to one class of customer then another, may, unless it can be very convincingly justified by thorough cost-benefit analysis, be at best a zero-sum game and at worst a recipe for eventual higher taxation, the burden of which ultimately falls on those least able to shift it away from themselves - typically employees and consumers. "Everything possible" seems appropriate in the context of our role in encouraging and catalysing innovation, spearheading collective initiatives in cases where there is insufficient incentive for any single entity to launch them, building infrastructure, and so on. In this latter regard I think that Hong Kong can take a certain amount of pride in some of the achievements in the financial sphere in recent years.

In the interests of time let me mention only some of the developments in systems infrastructure with which we in the HKMA have been involved: •  first, the establishment of the Central Moneymarkets Unit as an electronic clearing and custodial system for debt instruments; although this dates back to 1990, the service has been progressively enhanced and extended since then, including, most recently, the building of linkages with similar systems in other centres in order to facilitate cross-border trading in bonds and other debt securities;  •  second, the introduction of real-time gross settlement into the Hong Kong dollar inter-bank payments system in 1996 – we were one of the first economies in the world to adopt this procedure, which is nowadays regarded as the global standard;  •  third, the launch last year of our US dollar payment system, which replicates in Hong Kong for US dollars all the existing payment facilities available for HK dollars, with the addition of real-time payment-versus-payment settlement of foreign exchange deals between HKD and USD – itself a world first for any currency pair. You may reasonably ask what is the point of such projects as these. Broadly speaking, they have been directed at enhancing the efficiency of financial intermediation and reducing the associated risks. This in turn should both contribute to the soundness of the banks and other financial institutions, and benefit, even if only indirectly, all users of the financial system.
They reinforce the case for preserving the flexibility to adjust policy in response to changing conditions. And they underscore the importance of being open about the greater level of uncertainty we face in understanding the forces at work on the trajectory of demand and inflation. Central banks, of course, need to be careful not to convey more certainty about what we know than we reasonably can know. Let me conclude by observing that a constellation of factors has aligned to produce the current combination of low world interest rates, low risk premia and large global imbalances. Most of these factors are outside the control of U.S. monetary policy, and we do not fully understand their implications for our economy and for policy. The process of global economic integration makes it ever more important that we work to improve our understanding of how this complex of global monetary arrangements affects our objectives. Thank you. 4  BIS Review 18/2006

They provide confidence for financial institutions and customers to do business here. MAS pays close attention to the design of financial regulation to ensure that they are risk-based and not more burdensome than necessary to meet regulatory objectives. •  An example is the Financial Holding Companies (FHCs) Bill that is currently before Parliament. •  MAS will not regulate all FHCs. The Bill will give MAS the flexibility on whether or not to regulate a particular FHC, taking into consideration, for instance, whether the FHC’s subsidiaries are important to Singapore’s financial system. MAS consults the industry and other stakeholders when introducing significant new regulation. The exception of course is where the issue is market sensitive. We consult at an early stage on the broad policy proposals as well as in the later stages of detailed rule-making. We carefully consider all feedback on the impact of new regulation and implementation issues, and adjust the proposals where appropriate. This helps MAS to calibrate the rules in a way that is appropriate for our market. •  Take for example, the recent proposed changes to the regulatory capital framework for holders of capital markets services licenses. MAS briefed the industry, consulted extensively, and conducted quantitative impact studies. •  In response to feedback, MAS has decided to provide a longer transition period of two years for industry to comply with the new rules. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  •  MAS will also revise its calibration of the operational risk capital charge.
Monetary policy decision Before commenting our decision today, I would like to point out the changes that are shaping our current environment. In December 2005, when the present cycle of interest rate hikes began, we were concerned with the normalisation of the interest rate level – at the time the Libor was at 0.75% – while allowing the economy to reduce its level of unused resources. Our concern now is to ensure that monetary conditions are such that the healthy state of the economy does not jeopardise price stability in the medium term. We are still observing that the competitive pressure in the market is high, the labour market very flexible and that movement in the monetary aggregates is moderate. However, my analysis of the current situation has demonstrated that the inflation outlook has deteriorated in different respects since our last assessment: higher oil prices will have an impact on the consumer price index; economic performance, which is better than expected, will result in an improved utilisation rate and increase pressure on prices and, finally, a renewed weakening of the Swiss franc has neutralised the intended tightening in monetary conditions. Today's decision to raise the target range for the three-month Libor by 25 basis points takes into account this deterioration in the outlook for price stability. Inflation forecast graph I will now turn to the last part of my remarks. What is our inflation forecast?

Jean-Pierre Roth: Recent economic and financial developments in Switzerland Introductory remarks by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the half-yearly media news conference, Berne, 14 June 2007. *  *  *  The Swiss National Bank is raising the target range for the three-month Libor with immediate effect by 0.25 percentage points to 2.00–3.00%. With this move, the National Bank is ensuring that inflation prospects remain favourable. The SNB intends to hold the rate in the middle of the target range for the time being. Switzerland's economy is in excellent shape. Indeed, the economy is developing even better than expected back in March. For 2007, the National Bank now expects real GDP to grow at a rate of close to 2.5%. The healthy economy in the neighbouring countries and exchange rate developments have been contributing factors. Together with a renewed rise in oil prices, this has led to a slight deterioration in inflation prospects – even after today's increase in the interest rate. Assuming that the three-month Libor remains unchanged at 2.50%, the National Bank expects an average annual inflation rate of 0.8% in 2007, 1.5% in 2008, and 1.7% in 2009. Consequently, forecast inflation continues to rise. However, at present there is considerable uncertainty with regard to the assessment of the inflation outlook. On the one hand, structural changes in the economy still have a dampening effect on prices.
However, there is pressure in the markets for banks to comply ahead of schedule with the requirements laid down in Basel III. In many countries, moreover, a weak macroeconomic scenario contributes to increasing bad debts, making a case for sufficient buffers being in place to absorb the losses that may materialise. Bank should therefore use the room for manoeuvre they have to strengthen their capital, dispelling any existing doubts about their ability to comply with the new requirements on schedule. But it should also be said that the early full application of the new requirements in the short term, in an economic environment such as the present one, would prove excessively procyclical. The regulation of systemic banks The second key aspect of the regulatory reform promoted by the FSB has been the creation of a new framework for the treatment of “systemically important” banks. Systemically important banks are those whose bankruptcy might trigger serious problems in the global financial system owing to their size, complexity and interconnectedness. The problem they pose arises from the fact that, in the absence of an appropriate legislative framework, the threat of their bankruptcy often leaves no other option to the authorities than to bail them out, which may involve major costs for taxpayers. In response to this problem, the FSB designed a framework for the treatment of these banks. Its starting point was the definition of a methodology to identify them and the publication in November 2011 of a list drawn up in accordance with this methodology.

With a common monetary policy and (micro)supervisory policies, and a fiscal policy with almost no room for manoeuvre, the macroprudential policy becomes a much-needed ‘degree of freedom’ to deal with the lending cycle, a task that traditionally has been allocated to central banks too. As the recent article IV visit of the IMF made clear, Spain is one of the few countries in Europe still not to have a macroprudential authority. Given the role that macroprudential policy will play in the future, it is probably high time that we all reflect on the optimal design of this authority in order to enhance financial stability. 2  See J. Saurina and C. Trucharte: “The countercyclical provisions of the Banco de España 2000-2016”. Banco de España, 2017, for an account of dynamic provisions in Spain, why they were introduced, their impact and lessons drawn for prudential policy. 3  See G. Jiménez, S. Ongena, J.L. Peydró and J. Saurina: “Macroprudential Policy, Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffers, and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Spanish Dynamic Provisioning Experiments”, Journal of Political Economy, 2017, for a thorough quantitative analysis of the countercyclical impact of dynamic provisions in Spain. For a broader discussion of the interaction of dynamic provisions with monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy, see A. Estrada and J. Saurina “Spanish BoomBust and Macroprudential Policy”, Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, May, 2016. 6/7  Let me conclude by stressing the relevance of the conference, given the importance of the correct measurement of credit risk.
2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Only two other states can claim they surpassed previous peak employment levels: Alaska and North Dakota. Readers of this speech abroad – say, in Washington or New York – might think our growth last year came only from the burgeoning oil and gas patch. They would be right to describe it as burgeoning: 30,000 jobs were added in oil and gas and the related support sector last year. Texas now produces 2.1 million barrels of oil per day, the same amount as Norway; we produce 6.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas a year, only slightly less than Canada.4 With 25 percent of U.S. refinery capacity and 60 percent of the nation’s petrochemical production located in Texas, we most definitely benefit from both upstream and downstream energy production. 4  Texas compares with some international producers of oil and gas as follows: Natural gas Crude + natural gas liquids (trillion cu ft, annual) (mb/d) World  84.60  119.39  United States  8.58  22.47  Canada  3.38  6.91  Texas  2.13  6.71  Norway  2.13  3.85  Mexico  2.95  1.72  SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  And yet other sectors gained more jobs than the oil and gas sector and its support functions in 2011: 58,000 jobs were added in professional and business services, nearly 46,000 in education and health services and more than 41,000 in leisure and hospitality.

These two countries have much in common, yet some things (and not only the Danube!) still separate us. As I have already mentioned on previous occasions, to a certain extent, the speed of convergence was, in the case of Romania, fuelled by the flexibility of our exchange rate regime. By contrast, adopting a currency board more than two decades ago, during a crisis, Bulgaria shifted to a fixed exchange rate regime, out of which the only exit strategy is joining the euro area. What we need in order to move forward on the convergence path towards euro adoption is, first of all, to understand there is no substitute for a coherent economic policy mix, which should remain so even in election years. We need economic convergence, but the process should be a balanced one, so as to preserve macroeconomic equilibria and safeguard competitiveness. It is important that Europe remains united. Therefore, I want to pay homage to Baron Snoy, who has been instrumental in promoting Romania’s and Bulgaria’s further integration into the Economic and Monetary Union. I have known him since the first event we hosted in June 2011, and have always found in him not only a wise man, dedicated to the European Project, but also a friend of Romania, with a vast knowledge of our history and culture. He has also played an important role in bringing together Europhile experts that are trying to find solutions to the daunting issues facing Europe nowadays.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Policy prescription Given the economic scenario and inflation outlook I have discussed, if it were possible, I would favor cutting the federal funds rate by several percentage points. But since the federal funds rate is already near zero now, that’s not an option. To date, the Fed’s policymaking committee, the FOMC, has used a number of nontraditional policy tools to impart greater financial accommodation. I have fully supported these policies. However, I would argue for further policy actions based on our dual mandate responsibilities and the strong impediments of the financial crisis. In a recent Financial Times commentary, Michael Woodford of Columbia University discussed how greater clarity in policy communications would help.6 I agree. As I see it, current financial conditions are more restrictive than I favor, in part because households, businesses and markets place too much weight on the possibility that Fed policy will turn restrictive in the near to medium term. The FOMC’s announcement in August that it anticipates short-term rates remaining low through mid-2013 was certainly a step in the right direction because it significantly raised the hurdle for early policy tightening. But I think we could go even further. One way would be to make a simple statement about our policy plans that clearly lays out our conditionality in terms of our dual mandate responsibilities and observable economic data.

We are doing more work to isolate the impact of these factors as part of the ongoing cost-benefits analysis underlying these tools. Putting all of this together, I would conclude that the rationale for the FPC’s action remains sound in the light of subsequent evidence and that the action itself was effective at preventing further build up in the tail of more indebted households, and more importantly that it continues to function as an insurance policy. More work is in train to assess whether the FPC’s actions may have affected the evolution of house prices and transactions but even if we assume there was no broader impact of this kind, the work published by the Bank today suggests strongly that the policies have functioned as intended. They have restrained the buildup of more highly indebted households that would otherwise leave the economy and subsequently the financial system more vulnerable in a downturn. There are two interesting postscripts to the FPC’s 2014 actions. 12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  12  First, the Committee when it took its decisions left open the possibility that these tools – LTI flow limit and affordability test – might be part of the time varying macro-prudential toolkit. Subsequent consideration by the Committee in 2017, concluded that while the calibration might need to be varied over time, the limits themselves functioned as necessary insurance and should be seen as part of the regulatory system rather than as temporary measures.
Remember that the portfolios selected for the review amount to 58% of the risk-weighted assets of the 128 institutions, i.e. some € trillion, which will involve reviewing in detail an average of 1,250 credit records per bank. In Spain, we calculate that the review will affect assets valued at € billion, and will require the analysis of more than 21,000 loan records. The second part of the assessment will consist of the stress test. The aim of this exercise is to analyse the ability of banks to maintain appropriate solvency levels in two different scenarios: a baseline or more likely scenario, and another alternative, highly adverse scenario, with less likelihood of occurrence. The stress test is being developed in collaboration with the European Banking Authority (EBA). The methodology of the exercise is currently at the review stage following the finalisation some days back of the public consultation process. The final version of the methodology and details of the macroeconomic scenarios are expected to be published towards the end of this month. The implementation and quality control stages of the stress test will commence from next month, meaning there will be some overlap with the asset review exercise. The outcome of the comprehensive assessment will be made known in late October, and will include both the results of the asset quality analysis and of the stress test.

These elements resulted in a swelling of inventories, durable goods purchases and investments in machinery & equipment. Among the more persistent phenomena that are driving demand and output are the stimulative effect of monetary policy, in an environment where the agents’ balance sheets suffered no permanent damages from either the crisis or 27-F.  2  BIS Review 126/2010  Furthermore, different measures show that financial conditions have advanced toward normalization in recent months, with a more favorable scenario in terms of both interest rates and banks’ lending standards. According to the banking credit survey of the second quarter, credit access conditions were relaxed at the same time that a strengthening of demand was observed. Loans have continued to grow, and interest rates are still low (figure 4). This combines with the good performance of the labor market and expectations of consumers and firms in the optimistic or near-neutral levels. Reconstruction works in the aftermath of 27-F have affected domestic expenditures, albeit with a different composition than was foreseen immediately after the disaster. At first, everyone expected that public and private efforts would focus primarily on infrastructure and construction, but capital goods imports and inventory replacement ended up being much more significant. Still, the baseline scenario assumes that building investment will pick up substantially towards the end of this year and in 2011, with some moderation of investment in machinery & equipment, which is already visible.
Specifically, in the case of the 2022 revision, on Banco de España estimates, higher commodity prices, increased uncertainty and the lower growth of world markets will reduce growth by 0.7 pp, 0.6 pp and 0.5 pp, respectively. These factors by far outweigh others operating in the opposite direction. These include the fact that, on the latest Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) figures published,2 GDP grew more vigorously in the second half of 2021 than anticipated in the December projection exercise. Likewise operating in favour of output growth is the stimulus provided by the measures included in the National Plan to respond to the economic and social consequences of the war in Ukraine, approved on 29 March by the Spanish Cabinet,3 to which I will refer briefly later on. In any event, assuming that the war will not extend over a long time horizon, activity will continue to be underpinned by the foreseeable improvement in the epidemiological  1  See “Macroeconomic projections for the Spanish economy (2022-2024)”, Box 1, “Quarterly report on the Spanish economy”, Economic Bulletin, 1/2022, Banco de España. 2 Specifically, the new QNA figures revise the GDP growth rate in 2022 upwards by 0.8 pp. 3  The projections do not incorporate estimates relating to the proposal submitted to the European Commission by the Spanish and Portuguese Governments to reduce the impact of higher gas prices on wholesale electricity prices, because it is not yet clear how this measure will ultimately materialise.

Museums and various activities organised in light of promoting national values and raising the public awareness help to better transmit the message embedded in banknotes, and educate the public through the art in banknotes, featuring elements of our national identity. For this particular reason, numismatists take delight in the subtleties of colours and images of the banknotes. In the apparently just pieces of paper, they are able to distinguish and recognise different ages, and the degree of social freedom. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  In addition, banknotes may also depict concerns of a society, of course, when the artist was able to properly read this concern. Hence, the green of US dollar was chosen as a symbol to express the need of the stability in the period of civil war. The 2017 series of Norwegian currency reflects the concern on the return to the human basic needs, which are taken away by digitalisation. In reflection to this concern, the portraits of distinguished people of art and science are replaced with the symbols of natural resources, strongly related with the identity of the Norwegian people, such as the Viking ship, fish or the lighthouse. All these facts show that nothing has threatened the educational and national mission of the banknote. Owing to this reason also, it continues to carry it out by resisting even the virtual forms of the currency. In addition, as a Harvard researcher states, the paper may disappear earlier than the banknote.