samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Moreover, because a small number of individuals have dogmatically equated markets with the unbounded pursuit of short-term profits, faith in the benefits of a marketbased economic system has been undermined. Finally, the extraordinary public policy response to the crisis has potentially prepared the ground for even more moral hazard in the future. The third reason is that this financial crisis will not be the last one. Between 1973 and 1997 alone, there were 139 documented financial crises in various parts of the world. 2 Some suggest that we should redesign the global financial system in such a way that there will never be a financial crisis again. This is neither desirable nor realistic. As long as we want a financial system that performs a meaningful and useful function for the real economy, we will have to live with financial cycles. Moreover, the current crisis has clearly demonstrated the limitations of complex regulations and models. Even the most complex models will never be infallible. What we can and should do is to limit the likelihood of and the fallout from future crises. It would be an inexcusable mistake to miss this opportunity to see through fundamental regulatory reform. We have to address the vulnerabilities that were at the root of this crisis and are likely to be at the root of those in the future. For this purpose, we need simple, effective measures that can be implemented rapidly once the crisis is over. There are intensive efforts under way to increase the resilience of the financial system.

In case of Estonia, our earlier policy choices have resulted in an environment characterized by the openness of the economy - export and import reaching 179-180% of the GDP, by a stable fixedexchange-rate, by a long tradition of balanced fiscal stance and rapid integration with the European markets - all of them features favourable to a relatively rapid real convergence. We could even say that the convergence that presently takes place in our real economy takes place in a de facto EMU environment. 2  BIS Review 42/2003  According to an analysis recently conducted by the ECB, the correlation of manufacturing industries' business cycles between Estonia and the five larger EMU member countries is even higher than that for some of the present member countries, the correlation of overall economic cycles is slightly lower but that is due to the more rapid economic growth in Estonia compared to the euro area. But there is one more important aspect I would like to stress in this context - and that is the crucial role of the financial system in real convergence under a currency board based fixed exchange rate regime. It is fair to say that Estonian banking system is presently strong, well capitalized and liquid. The banks' forced reliance on their own capital and liquidity has had a direct impact on the market structure. Strategic foreign ownership - mostly by Scandinavian financial groups - has provided Estonian banks with both strong capitalization and transfer of international best practices.
Ardian Fullani: Recent economic developments in Albania Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the Joint Press Conference of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Albania, Tirana, 9 March 2010. *  *  *  Honourable Mr. Minister of Finance, Honourable Mr. Bell, Honourable participants, During the last two weeks we have had an intensive dialogue with the IMF Mission, which visited Tirana in the framework of periodic consultations in terms of the observance of Article IV. During these discussions there is appraised the good performance of the Albanian economy during the past year and there is also emphasized the need for pursuing prudent economic policies, designed and implemented in the context of strengthening the macroeconomic and financial stability. Also, special attention has been paid to the need for ongoing structural reform that will support our long-term economic growth. The Albanian economy has recorded a positive economic growth during the past year and has successfully tackled the direct and indirect shudders of the global economic crisis. Moreover, the Albanian economy has passed the test, by maintaining the domestic economic and financial balances, which serve as a prerequisite for a sustainable and long-term growth. Thus, inflation rate fluctuated around 2 to 3 percent during 2009; the country’s external balances have shown correction signs, while the Albanian banking system remains robust and well-capitalized. However, the economic growth rate slowed down significantly during 2009.

Even if the Riksbank had conducted an even more expansionary monetary policy one to two years ago, it is not certain that this extra stimulation and the possibly even stronger lending that would have ensued would have affected the labour market in the way some critics believe. The situation today is quite simply a different one from the classical shortage of domestic demand, where lending and liquidity are weak and an interest rate stimulus would have a considerable effect on demand and thereby employment. Inflation outlook and future monetary policy This brings us to the other question – namely what monetary policy can do today to ensure inflation reaches the target level one to two years from now. What we have seen in the United States, which is considered to be slightly ahead of Sweden in the economic cycle, is that productivity growth is gradually subsiding. When the stimulus from monetary policy and fiscal policy has been maintained sufficiently long, companies are unable to respond with more efficient organisation and outsourcing alone, they have to begin recruiting. Productivity growth is dampened, employment rises and in the United States we have recently seen that inflation also rises. This is also the kind of development we can expect to see in Sweden. The most likely scenario is that over the coming years we will see a more subdued growth in productivity, rising employment and an increase in resource utilisation, despite the pressure for change in the economy.
In response, banks managed to optimise their operational costs and improve their capital ratios. In this regard, the Bank of Albania has emphasised the accurate identification of the credit portfolio situation, asking the banks to take firm action and recover their non-performing loans value. This may be realised through support to qualitative borrowers in temporary difficult situations as well as through execution of collateral in the case of hopeless borrowers. Execution of collateral and the need to improve the relevant legal and operational framework are considered as a priority by the Bank of Albania. Following recommendations from an earlier  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  forum organised on this topic, the Bank of Albania is fully committed so that other public authorities address the issue with priority. Furthermore, in cooperation with the banking sector, the Bank of Albania has identified and undertaken a number of other supervisory and regulatory actions, aiming at improving operational capitalisation situation and minimum liquidity requirement both in the national and foreign currencies. Next, some amendments to the Law “On banks in the Republic of Albania” were drafted and approved, which, in essence, complete and improve banking activity supervisory framework. These actions were pivotal for addressing an added risk perception due to international and regional financial developments. I take this opportunity to thank you for your cooperation and concrete actions with regard to the implementation of these new requirements, confident that you will fully accomplish them within the required timeframe.

This means that energy prices are included but they have considerably less weight than in the CPI. Of the measures that we use for underlying inflation, the CPI-ATE has tended to be lowest. All four measures indicate that inflation has been moderate in recent years and have implied an expansionary monetary policy. The rise in prices we have recently observed could affect inflation in the period ahead through compensation for earlier inflation, the pass through of costs to selling prices and through expectations of future price inflation. By using various measures of underlying inflation, we seek to capture the portion of the rise in prices that may influence future inflation. It is always difficult in real time to determine which price movements will persist and which will only have a short-term effect on the CPI. An assessment of underlying inflationary pressures should probably be based on several different indicators and developments in these should be followed up by discussion and interpretation of the underlying causes. Allow me to conclude. Developments over the past 40 years have illustrated that the most important contribution monetary policy can make to sound economic developments in the long term is low and stable inflation. This provides the economy with a nominal anchor. In its conduct of monetary policy, Norges Bank operates a flexible inflation targeting regime, so that weight is given to both variability in inflation and variability in output and employment.
Central Bank of Chile’s Twenty-first Annual Conference “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications” Opening remarks by Governor Mario Marcel  Good morning and welcome to the Twenty-first Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile. It is a pleasure to host this event that every year gives us an opportunity to reflect and discuss about issues that have direct implications on our work as central bankers from a broader perspective. I am looking forward to active discussions through the rest of the week on this year’s conference theme: monetary policy and financial stability. Ten years have passed since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis and we are still dealing with its economic consequences. But we have learnt a lot, and a decade of hindsight about the causes and long-lasting effects has led us to rethink the way we conduct monetary policy, how to ensure financial stability, and how these two elements are, or should be, interconnected. One of the most important policy lessons from the crisis concerns the relevance of actively seeking financial stability in a context of ever-increasing financial complexity. And central banks worldwide have been increasingly involved in assuring this, since it has become clear that financial stability is a pre-condition for price stability.

Our assessment in May was that economic activity in Sweden would continue to strengthen in the period ahead owing to both relatively loose monetary and fiscal policy and an expected economic upswing abroad. GDP growth was forecast to average almost 3 per cent from 2004 to 2006. One reason that there now is cause to revise up the growth forecast is that exports once again have increased unexpectedly fast. Export growth has been robust because international demand in general has grown more rapidly than anticipated and because the relative price of Swedish exports has been unexpectedly low. As I pointed out earlier, some 20 per cent of Swedish exports go to countries outside the OECD area where economic growth has been vigorous. During the first half of this year exports of goods, measured in current prices, rose 9 per cent compared with the same period in 2003. Swedish exports have also benefited in part from the revival in the IT and telecommunications sectors. However, robust growth in exports is not unique to Sweden; average export growth in the EU has been roughly as strong during the first half of this year. Another positive signal is that a pickup in investment, which the Riksbank and other forecasters have been waiting a long time for, seems to have begun. This was a major contributory factor to our more positive outlook for the Swedish economy at the latest monetary policy meeting in August.
In the United States, for example, the 2010 deficit ratio stood at more than 10% of GDP and the latest IMF projections suggest only a relatively limited decline to around 8% of GDP in 2012. US debt reached around 95% of GDP in 2010 and would further increase to around 105% of GDP in 2012. Japan and the UK ran similarly high deficits. In the case of Japan, the deficit ratio amounted to around 9% of GDP in 2010 and, after an increase in 2011, would return to around this level in 2012. In the UK, according to the latest European Commission forecast the deficit ratio would decline from 10.3% in 2010 to around 8 % in 2012. Against this background, what are the reasons for the particularly severe disruptions in some euro area sovereign debt markets and the related contagion effects, which are undermining financial stability in the euro area as a whole? To approach this question it is helpful to take a closer look at the specificities of the euro area institutional setup. The combination of a single monetary policy and strongly decentralised fiscal policies constitutes a specific feature of the euro area. The weak European governance has not been able to remove incentives for national fiscal policymakers to allow the emergence of fiscal imbalances in the form of running excessive deficits at the cost of other participating Member States. The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) was established to address such coordination problems.

So, exporters to the euro area are now able to recoup part of the margins they compressed during the downturn. The extent to which they are able to do so also depends on the degree of competition, a point made by Rudi Dornbusch back in 1987. The more concentrated market power is, and the less substitutable products are, the more likely firms are to increase their margins following exchange rate appreciations. This also means that the pass-through may well differ across industries.9 These examples demonstrate that it is by and large the state of the economy that will determine the strength of the pass-through. Monetary policy, for its part, is likely to influence the passthrough predominantly through its impact on the economy itself. And at the moment this support from monetary policy may be even more powerful than in the past. The reason is that, in the class of models used here, positive demand shocks are normally identified by assuming that short-term interest rates rise in response to higher growth and inflation. At the current juncture, however, the policy-relevant horizon – the “medium term” concept in our monetary policy strategy – is likely to be longer given the persistence of subdued inflationary pressures. Our forward guidance on both policy rates and the APP, as reiterated by the 6 / 14  BIS central bankers' speeches  Governing Council last Thursday, reflects this assessment.
2 William C. Dudley, The Importance of Financial Conditions in the Conduct of Monetary Policy, March 30, 2017. 3 See Addendum to the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans, adopted June 13, 2017. 4 See Projections for the SOMA Portfolio and Net Income, July 2017. 5 For related discussions, see Lorie Logan, Implementing Monetary Policy: Perspective from the Open Market  Trading Desk, May 18, 2017, and Simon Potter, Money Markets at a Crossroads: Policy Implementation at a Time of Structural Change, April 5, 2017. 6 The New York Fed’s portfolio projections report and accompanying data files illustrate some projected paths for  the size of the Fed’s securities portfolio under alternative scenarios for the long-run level of liabilities. For midyear 2017 update and report archive, see www.newyorkfed.org/markets/annual_reports.html. 7 See, for example, Eric M. Engen, Thomas Laubach, and David Reifschneider (2015), The Macroeconomic  Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Unconventional Monetary Policies, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015–005 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February); Brian Bonis, Jane Ihrig, and Min Wei (2017), The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Securities Holdings on Longer-Term Interest Rates, FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, April 20); and Troy Davig and A. Lee Smith (2017), Forecasting the Stance of Monetary Policy under Balance Sheet Adjustments, Macro Bulletin (Kansas City, Mo. : Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, May 10). 8 See David Harrison (2017), “Economists See Modest Impact from a Fed Balance-Sheet Reduction,” Wall Street  Journal, May 11.

More people could be put to work on a sustainable basis, enabling them to gain opportunities not just to earn greater income, but also to develop their skills and grow their human capital. Before I go further, let me say a few words about the impact of Hurricane Harvey. The massive flooding in Texas has been a tragedy for countless people. My heart goes out to all who have suffered and face a long and difficult recovery. While the human toll of such a storm is immense, past disasters such as Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy have shown that the impact on the national economy tends to be modest and transitory. At first, activity dips as normal commerce is disrupted. But later, when rebuilding gets underway in earnest, economic activity receives a modest boost. Although I expect that the Texas floods will make it more difficult to assess the economic data in the months ahead, I do not expect it to fundamentally alter the underlying trajectory of the national economy. Of course, for parts of Texas, sadly, the consequences will be immeasurably greater. Monetary Policy Outlook As I noted earlier, I still anticipate that above-trend growth will lead to higher utilization of the economy’s resources, and that, over time, this will help push inflation higher. Thus, even though inflation is currently somewhat below our longer-run objective, I judge that it is still appropriate to continue to remove monetary policy accommodation gradually.
Mr. Erçel considers the European financial markets and their implications for Turkish institutions Speech given by the Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Mr. Gazi Erçel, in Istanbul on 23/10/97. The EMU will be the most important change in the international monetary system since the creation of the IMF at Bretton Woods. The creation of a new currency, the Euro, is in fact a historical event for the European Union (EU). It marks a new quality in the process of European unification because it is the final point and coronation of efforts since 1958 to create one big market in Europe. The success of the Euro area will, of course, depend on the future development of the value of the Euro. The Euro, as we all know, has to compete with two strong international currencies: the US dollar and the Japanese yen. According to one school of thought, the Euro will have a stable value. That is because the high stock of assets in Euro, held by official or private foreign holders and which were converted from national currencies, in particular from Deutsche Mark, will not be switched into other currencies. Besides, once the Euro is introduced, there could be a significant switch of foreign exchange reserves out of US dollars and into Euro. This could give a boost to the exchange rate of the Euro against the US dollar over time.

This is important because in future while computer knowledge will perhaps not immediately get you a job, it will ensure that you are one step closer to being employed. Ladies and Gentlemen, I also recognize the efforts of the former Students Association who have been soliciting for donations from various organizations. As former students we all have the responsibility of helping the school that has played a key part to what you are today. Let us continue to support our beloved school. I thank you. BIS Review 14/2010  2
Employment has also risen somewhat since the start of the year, and if economic activity strengthens as we are expecting, the demand for labour will rise. Then unemployment will fall and the employment rate, that is, employed as a percentage of the population, will attain roughly the same level as before the financial crisis. When the labour market situation improves, we will also see gradually higher wage increases. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Even if the situation is currently uncertain, we thus see signs that economic activity will gradually strengthen, both in Sweden and abroad, and thus companies will have greater scope to raise their prices. However, we believe that one condition for growth, employment and inflation to rise in accordance with the forecasts is that we continue to hold the repo rate at a very low level. This forecast for the repo rate – what we call the repo-rate path – is, however, a highly uncertain forecast, at least with regard to the end of the forecast period. This relates to something as self-evident as the fact that we live in a world full of uncertainty, not least with regard to the preconditions for monetary policy – for example, developments abroad, inflationary pressures, the level of unutilised resources in the economy and coming measures in the field of economic policy. Here there are many factors contributing to making our forecasts uncertain and our repo-rate decisions difficult, and I shall touch on some of these problems.

This is partly because of the conflict in Ukraine and the remaining questions regarding European banks’ balance sheets. The public finance situation is not entirely clear in all of the countries either. But once this uncertainty has calmed, developments in the euro area may also pick up, as we are expecting that monetary policy will remain very expansionary, fiscal policy will ease and credit granting will function better. The currently weak development in the euro area is of course also leaving its mark on the Swedish economy. The development of exports is weak, which is in turn holding back investment. Exports will not pick up again until economic activity abroad strengthens and it may take a year or so before export growth returns to a normal rate. But then investment is also likely to pick up as interest rates are low and the funding opportunities are good. Demand from our most important trading partners is currently fairly weak, therefore, and this has contributed to dampening growth in Sweden. On the other hand, demand from Swedish households has developed positively. In recent years, household incomes have increased at a good pace and consumption and housing investment have shown strong development. Since our previous forecast at the beginning of September, new revised GDP statistics for the second quarter showed a somewhat higher GDP and a somewhat stronger development in consumption and investment than we had reason to expect, given the preliminary statistics.