samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Capital is much higher than it was fifteen years ago before the global financial crisis with a  1  The ESRB is responsible for the macroprudential oversight of the EU financial system in order to contribute to the prevention or mitigation of risks to financial stability. 2 3  See Warning of the European Systemic Risk Board of 22 September 2022 on vulnerabilities in the Union financial system (ESRB/2022/7). Speech by ESRB Chair Christine Lagarde, Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, Brussels, 20 March 2023. Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 15.5% at the end of December. The liquidity position of the European banks is also robust, with an LCR ratio of 164.7% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2022, clearly above the minimum requirements and even the pre-pandemic levels, and with a large part of these liquidity buffers in cash and deposits with the central banks. This has been the result of regulatory reforms agreed internationally over the last decade. In the EU, these reforms have been applied to all banks, irrespective of their size. The role of banking supervision is worth noting. In the Banking Union, certain supervisory priorities of the Single Supervisory Mechanism were wisely set to mitigate and anticipate the adverse effects of the current macroeconomic situation.

It is key in formulating socio-economic programs including the Government Transformation Plan, the New Economic Model and the 10th Malaysia Plan. This commitment towards financial inclusion is reflected in the Central Bank Act 2009, where financial inclusion is legislated as an objective of Bank Negara Malaysia. The efforts to develop a more inclusive financial system have been fruitful. More than 80% of the Malaysian population currently has some form of savings account. Compared to the global median of 8.4 bank branches per 100,000 individuals, Malaysia has 15.5 branches per 100,000 individuals (31 March 2010) with the number of ATM cards in circulation increasing from 19.8 million (Dec 2006) to 28 million (April 2010), with an average annual growth rate of 11% in the last four years. Another important indicator is the total microfinance loans outstanding, which has increased from USD 45 million (RM 151 million) as at end-2000 to USD 757 million (RM 2.5 billion) as at end-March 2010, a compounded annual growth rate of 35.5%. While such positive trends are encouraging, we are also mindful of the associated risks, such as non-performing loans, over-indebtedness and consumption of financial products and services that are not suitable for the user. In this regard, efforts towards financial inclusion are always conducted within the framework of sound banking practices, risk management and adequate consumer protection. Importance of financial inclusion data in the growth and development of an inclusive economic system Policy formulation for financial inclusion is complex for a number of reasons.
But, don’t get me wrong. We welcome the normalisation of monetary policy in the US. A timely and orderly exit from zero interest rate policy by the Fed should facilitate adjustments of macroeconomic imbalances and help deflate asset bubbles in the EMEs which have been fuelled by excessive global liquidity since 2008. As the Fed’s balance sheet is expected to stay elevated for some time while the ECB and the BoJ carry on with QE, global liquidity should remain abundant in the near term, which should help cushion the impact of a Fed rate hike to some extent. 4. That said, no one should safely assume that monetary policy normalisation in the US would be a smooth, painless process for the global economy. Even though the Fed has repeatedly signalled that its future rate hike path will be slow and gradual, its impact on global fund flows and financial stability is highly uncertain. This is particularly the case as many EMEs have built up varying extents of macroeconomic imbalances amid the exceptionally low interest rate environment in recent years. 5. To consider what may lie ahead for EMEs, it is perhaps useful to look back at past episodes of US monetary tightening. On the positive effects, Fed rate hikes were mostly associated with a pick-up in US growth momentum which could benefit EMEs’ exports, although we have observed that the strength of this support has weakened considerably after the Global Financial Crisis.

Our economies and our societies have suffered heavily – indeed, on all available forecasts, this year will see the biggest declines in GDP recorded in peacetime – and we will have to endure a period of painful reconstruction for which sound knowledge and also good judgment will be essential. 1/1  BIS central bankers' speeches
10 (d)  Leakage  From the outset of this debate, I have stressed the hazards in trying to steer credit growth in a world in which capital can flow freely across borders. Think of a case where the domestic authorities increased the risk weight on mortgage lending. The measure would apply only to banks headquartered here or operating out of a subsidiary. It would not apply to branches of foreign-headquartered banks, still less to pure cross border activity. But it is easy to imagine that, rather than borrowing from UK-domiciled banks, mortgage brokers could arrange for households to borrow from a lender based overseas, or at least with the loan booked overseas. In terms of the accumulation of debt in the sector concerned – in this hypothetical case, housing – there might, after a time, be little or no effect. That would obviously not be great for the risk of default by the borrowing sector concerned. But UK-based banks would have been required to build their defences. That might mean that, other things being equal, if and when the borrowing sector got into difficulty, UK-based banks would be less likely to collapse under the strain of losses. If so, the damage to financial stability would be reduced, and the eventual economic costs might plausibly be lower than otherwise; especially if those UK banks were able to take up some of the slack created by withdrawal of credit supply by foreign banks to sound UK borrowers. It might, though, just be possible to go further.

Speaking as chair of the Financial Stability Board’s working group on the resolution of crossborder firms, I can update you on the work already in train. Basically for the top roughly 25 banks and dealers, the authorities will work with them over the next 6-9 months to produce recovery and resolution plans. The effort will build on the existing supervisory colleges, but typically at a more senior level, and involving resolution authorities and central banks as well as line supervisors. After official level exchanges, there will be engagement with those firms, also at a senior level (say group CFO). The desired outputs will cover two things. First, recovery plans for “de-risking” a group where it can and should be maintained as a going concern. Second, a resolution plan when a firm needs to be wound down and put to rest, but with essential economic functions maintained somehow. The FSA has explained their contribution to the exercise. No one should think that this will be easy; or that anyone in the official sector is naïve about that. It will, in fact, be formidably difficult. The process is, for that very reason, designed to flush out the issues, so that they can be properly debated and reviewed.
The arguments for establishing a committee for monetary policy and financial stability are weaker, in Norges Bank’s view, if the GPFG is separated from Norges Bank. Without responsibility for the GPFG, the Board’s range of responsibilities will be substantially reduced. In addition, dividing responsibility for central banking matters between the two bodies will pose challenges, particularly with regard to the division of work and reporting. The central bank’s core functions are closely intertwined and must be viewed as a whole, as experienced during the financial crisis. A solution where responsibility must be transferred from the board to the committee in critical situations, as proposed by the Commission, could give rise to a lack of clarity and conflicts of competence. An important point in this context is that in the implementation of the committee’s tasks, the Governor will not be responsible to the board, but will report directly to the Ministry of Finance on central banking matters. If the management of the GPFG is removed from the aegis of Norges Bank, the Bank’s function will be to exercise authority with regard to monetary policy, financial stability and the payment system. A board with broadly the same composition as at present would then function well. Combining responsibility for central banking matters and administrative matters in this board will place responsibility with the same body in both normal and crisis times. The consideration of central bank independence also points towards this solution.

Over the last three decades in our journey to develop Islamic finance, a holistic infrastructural ecosystem devoted towards talent development has been conceptualised. To move forward, we need to continuously create distinct value propositions for Islamic finance to chart into new areas of growth. In the case of Malaysia, the need for a new breed of talent is pressing, as we embark on an ambitious target of 40 percent market share for Islamic finance by 2020. The need is also evident at the global level, as many jurisdictions aspire to develop an Islamic finance centre of their own. It is from this perspective that it becomes even more critical for us to nurture the right talents with the best minds to propel the industry into the future, that is estimated to grow its financial assets to USD3.2 trillion by 20201. There is much we can derive from the lessons of history. Historical evidence showed that Islamic civilisation was driven by visionary thinkers and their propensity and ability to engage in vigorous intellectual discourses. Indeed, many of the breakthrough thinking, concept and ideas were only possible because of the conducive environment that emphasised intellectual rigour. Their contributions were immeasurable. Their wisdom and foresight were unsurpassed and far superior to others. In many cases they were a few hundred years ahead of their time.
The report will provide a helpful basis for each individual jurisdiction to analyse whether and how to extend domestic operating hours. It will indeed feed into the Bank’s own analysis of extended operating hours. I would encourage central banks to undertake self-assessments against both frameworks. If more firms can use payment systems and for longer, it could simplify payment processing, expand the global settlement window and increase opportunities for new entrants to stimulate innovation for the benefit of consumers and businesses around the world. The Road Ahead There are three key ingredients that if mixed together could help the global payments ecosystem move the dial on payments. First, an innovative and forward-looking fintech and financial sector. Second, resilient, accessible and functional public infrastructure creating a platform for coordinated innovation. Finally, international collaboration across the public and the private sectors to promote harmonisation and interoperability. The combination of the three can speed up our journey to a world where any customer wherever they are and whatever the size of 5/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  payment can transact quickly, cheaply and securely. I would like to thank Andrei Pustelnikov for his help in preparing these remarks. I would like to thank John Jackson, Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Megan Solomon, Paige Benattar, Jurin Ohyama, Sam Leighton, Anna Koch, Michaela Costello, Paul Bedford and Dovile Naktinyte for their helpful contributions and comments.

Exchanges with colleagues from market operations, payment systems and economic analysis will help the supervisors to develop a different viewpoint on current market developments, the importance of a specific institution for payments and the economic environment. One area in which cooperation will be particularly intensive is macro-prudential supervision. Our aim here is to bring together insights from both the macro-prudential and the micro-prudential areas, and to address undesirable developments in a targeted way. Conclusion Ladies and gentlemen, the European supervisory landscape is facing a major change. With the SSM, we have created a strong, new supervisor at the European level. The SSM will be able, and have the responsibility, not to do everything differently, but to do some things better. With the conclusion of the comprehensive assessment, and the publication of the results in the second half of October, and the start of our supervisory activity on 4 November, we have a few stressful months ahead of us. But we must also remember to occasionally pause for a moment and to reflect beyond the immediate tasks at hand. The SSM may have been created as a consequence of, and as a solution to, certain problems in Europe. But it is  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  destined to be able to achieve much more and – at least that is my hope – to have an effect over and beyond Europe. Thank you for your attention. I am now at your disposal for questions. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  With domestic demand growing at around 3% in 2014, the fastest for ten years, all these factors will underpin the momentum needed to bring domestic cost growth back to up to a rate consistent with the inflation target. The fall in inflation we’ve experienced is in large part down to falling energy prices. It is not generalised “deflation” proper. The proportion of prices that are falling is consistent with the average over the past decade. The Bank will be vigilant in monitoring inflation expectations. Declining headline inflation seems likely to have cooled households’ inflation expectations as the prices of the goods they buy frequently – like fuel and food – have declined markedly. On balance, however, inflation expectations remain broadly consistent with the 2% inflation target. As the MPC noted in our February Inflation Report, we retain considerable policy options in the event that downside risks materialise. 6. Conclusion  The Bank of England’s inflation target is symmetric. We care as much about inflation below target as above. With inflation below target and unemployment above its long-run sustainable rate, we are aiming to return inflation to target as quickly as possible. In our most recent forecast, The Bank expects to return inflation to target within two years and to make limited and gradual increases in Bank Rate over the next three years in order to achieve that in a sustainable manner.

In this regard, the ECB’s recent moves to reduce its main refinancing rate to 0.05%, its deposit facility rate to –0.2%, and to commence large-scale asset purchases are both timely and welcome. In an environment of low rates everywhere, even Bank Rate of ½% might look high-yielding. And the fear of a bad outcome abroad could trigger safe-haven capital flows into the UK that push the value of sterling higher, making exporting more challenging, with knock-on implications for wages and prices here. That would come against the backdrop of a 5 ½ per cent sterling appreciation on a tradeweighted basis in the last year (Chart 9), which has extended the currency’s appreciation to around 17 per cent since its trough two years ago. These moves are reinforcing the disinflationary impulse from abroad, which could take a while to pass through to the sterling prices in the shops.14 5. Getting back to target in the UK  All of this puts a premium on generating the domestic inflation necessary to return inflation to the target. We are on track to do that. The UK economy is performing well. UK growth is solid, unemployment is coming down, and jobs have risen by 600,000 in the past year. Wage growth is showing signs of picking up, rising to 3% for the economy as a whole at the end of last year, and to 3.3% in the private sector.15 Average hours worked continue to recover on a strong upward trend.
I am strongly in favor of the UK remaining within the EU; yet, irrespective of the outcome of the British referendum, the Eurozone can and should pursue further integration. The euro crisis has revealed how unprepared we were. The expected dynamics between peer pressure and market discipline did not work, as markets did not believe in the no-bailout principle, and as national authorities did not really accept peer pressure, nor the implementation of the rules. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The absence of coordination has a genuine economic cost. It includes the cost of crises and assistance programmes, as well as the impact on growth due to uneven compliance with budgetary rules before the crisis and rigidity of the rules during the crisis. Several studies point to a significant cost of non-coordination, in the order of 2 to 5 % of GDP since the crisis. To take the debate forward, three principled choices have to be made: First: making parallel progress on both domestic reforms and European coordination. This is the cornerstone of any French-German agreement: to be fair, the French call for Germany to support coordination, and the German doubt about French reforms, have been and are still well-founded. This requires overcoming distrust between countries and putting both aspects under the same umbrella, namely a common institution. Second, we must recognize that institutions with a mandate are superior to rules without institutions. To bolster policy consistency and coordination, we admittedly need simpler rules.

François Villeroy de Galhau: The challenge of an efficient European economic governance as a contribution to a prosperous global community Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Emerging Markets Forum, Paris, 11 April 2016. *  *  *  Dear friends and distinguished guests, Let us take the long view. This forum, thanks to Michel Camdessus and Harinder Kohli, is a rare opportunity to discuss what the global economy and its governance might look like two generations from now. In a moment, we will argue about global megatrends and alternative scenarios. With so many distinguished participants from emerging market economies and specialists of the international monetary system in the room, I would like to speak today as a European. As I see it, the European perspective is relevant in this Forum for at least three main reasons: •  Regional integration may be one of the megatrends: how it will affect the delicate balance between sovereignty and international cooperation is a question that the EU has been mulling over since its inception. •  Many of the global and coordination challenges we are facing have been confronted over the course of European integration, and are still at the core of the debate: economic spillovers and externalities, monetary stability, and effective governance.
The Central Bank followed an effective liquidity management strategy and started to hold New Turkish lira deposit purchase auctions with the aim of withdrawing the TL-denominated excess liquidity gradually. At this point, the excess liquidity has been brought down to such an extent that it does not require daily auctions. As a result of these measures, the fluctuation in the markets was restrained. From end-June onwards, the Turkish lira appreciated by 16.7 percent while the indicative GS (government securities) interest rates and the average interest rate that is formed in CBRT deposit purchase auctions dropped by 3 points and 3.1 points, respectively. The volatility in both exchange rates and interest rates decreased significantly. In this regard, I should say that frankly the impacts of such shocks would have been much more severe under a fixed exchange rate regime. At present, the floating exchange rate regime is performing its shock-absorbing function. This process has shown once more how important it is for economic agents to manage the risks on their balance sheets under the floating exchange rate regime. As similar volatilities may be observed in the future under the floating exchange rate regime, all economic agents should protect themselves in the framework of modern risk management principles, against interest rate or exchange rate risk on their balance sheets. The Izmir Derivatives Exchange provides an important opportunity in this respect.

*** To sum up, the global economy is on the recovery path although there is still a long way to go towards sound and sustainable growth. Reshaping of the banking and financial sector will definitely contribute in this regard and the contribution in the same direction is expected from the fiscal sector, too. The central banks worldwide have proven their flexibility, but the monetary policy must not be overburdened in the long run and should get back to its primary function. A sustainable growth needs sound policies and accelerating reforms towards building more competitive and more flexible economies. Ladies and gentlemen,  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  I hope I have already triggered many issues to be discussed in details later on, during this conference. Considering the eminent keynote speakers that we have in the first session and the high quality research papers to be presented in the next sessions, I have no doubt that all together we will enlighten this complex “package” of issues related to the recovery in the aftermath of the crisis. Thank you so much for attending our conference and thank you for your attention! BIS central bankers’ speeches  3