samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
How could the US car manufacturers expect to compete in the motor car market in Hong Kong if the US cars were oversized and, more importantly, had virtually no post-sale service in Hong Kong, which is so crucial in the motor car market? Of course, since then the US manufacturers have gone a long way in improving the product types and quality, and have now become much more competitive than they used to be. BIS Review 116/1997  -3-  7. For Hong Kong to remain competitive under the linked exchange rate system, prices, including land costs and wages, will need to adjust. This adjustment process is already taking place, as we have seen in the correction in property prices and, in due course, rentals. With the slowdown in consumer spending and easing of the demand for labour, the pressure on wage increases for next year should also reduce. I am confident that the flexibility of Hong Kong’s economy will enable us to cope with external shocks effectively and to regain competitiveness. In the last 13 years, Hong Kong’s manufacturers have managed to keep the unit value rise of Hong Kong’s exports to 3% per annum, which is marginally much lower than the inflation rate of 3.5% in industrial countries, and well below the domestic inflation rate in terms of CPI of 8%.

The expertise has proven rather useful for many of our staff and, at times, was provided as on-  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  the-job training, for example, FSVC experts joined the Bank of Albania’s Supervision Department inspectors in their on-site examinations. I am confident that these qualities of FSVC’s assistance will be maintained in the future. A result of this fruitful cooperation is our shared commitment to extend it to the medium run. The parties have been in constant contact to identify the fields for future cooperation and I reckon that this process is being finalized in terms of project design and relevant details on development methodology and expected results. A preliminary assessment reveals that the scope of our future cooperation has expanded. Projects will continue to serve the objective for ongoing supervision capacity building in the fields of improvement of contingency plans, implementation of latest amendments to international banking supervision standards, risk assessment and improvement of regulatory requirements for responsible management by banking and financial institutions. The assistance may be expanded to include underlying standards for payment systems and use of e-money, thus laying the grounds for the adoption of relevant requirements arising from EU directives. The cooperation of the FSVC with ADIA will focus on the implementation of the Strategic Development Plan 2012–14 and will address, more concretely, the modernization of the IT infrastructure and reporting system as well as other ancillary processes.
At this point, let us make it clear that this work is not intended as a declaration of the SNB’s intent to issue wholesale CBDC, or indeed to offer another settlement model. Rather, the point is to act prudently and proactively so that we can continue to fulfil our mandate in the future. Integration of token money and book money Let me now turn to the integration of token money and book money. We do not yet know what role DLT and tokenisation will play in the financial system of the future (cf. slide 14). There are three possible scenarios. In the first scenario, both remain niche products. A second, hybrid scenario, in which assets can be transferred and paid for in both tokenised and traditional form, is also conceivable. In the third scenario, infrastructures would be based primarily on DLT, and assets would only be available in tokenised form. For the second and third scenarios, a seamless integration of different forms of money as well as a high degree of interoperability between existing and new payment and settlement systems are essential. A lack of interoperability may lead to segmentation of the financial market infrastructure. A lack of integration may lead to fragmentation of the monetary system and threaten the singleness of the Swiss franc. The SNB will pay particular attention to this issue. Conclusion This evening we have looked at how we can harness the potential of digitalisation and new technologies while at the same time maintaining security and confidence in the payment system.

The real interest rate is expected to be very negative throughout the forecast period. This entails a powerful stimulus of the Swedish economy. The discussion is currently dominated by the question of how we should manage monetary policy in the prevailing recession. As monetary policy is forward-looking, it is important not to overlook the potential inflationary impulses now being built in for the future. Price impulses from a weak krona and from high unit labour costs are two such factors. If the global economy recovers more quickly than we are predicting, this will also contribute to making monetary policy less expansionary. Before further measures are taken, there are thus many reasons to evaluate the effects of all of the measures taken so far, and to evaluate the new information on economic activity and the financial market situation that is received.
Indeed, it was Carlos Diaz-Alejandro, by the mideighties, who eloquently said “good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash” (DiazAlejandro, 1985). Some recent research also points in the same direction, as reviewed in Dr. Reddy’s lecture – beyond a certain level, financial depth has marginal contributions to growth (Arcand et al., 2012; Cecchetti and Kharroubi, 2012). In Chile we had a great financial crisis in the early eighties which led to an overhaul of financial regulation. The country followed the prudent route, allowing only activities that could be handled appropriately by financial intermediaries, but above all that could be understood  1  and monitored well by market participants and financial regulators. Since the country was emerging from a deep financial crisis, the macro view of the financial system and its regulation were a central part of the design. But this seems not to have been the case in advanced economies. The global financial crisis has revealed the perils of financial deepening. It has shown that advanced economies are not different. This is not new in emerging markets, but is something less common and more dramatic in advanced economies. Long ago we learned that when an economic downturn comes with a financial crisis the costs are extremely high. What went wrong? It is important to recall that the crisis had its origins in a noble cause: providing housing to low-income families.

Consumer protection also has a high risk of being captured by the political cycle. This could be specially damaging in the financial system – and therefore every effort should be made to make the institutions safeguarding financial consumers autonomous and technical. For macroeconomists and financial economists, today it is difficult to focus on something other than the European crisis. The health of the global economy depends on a good resolution to this crisis. However, we cannot forget the duty of building a safer and fairer financial system. Today we have the opportunity to tackle this task, but we also have to avoid shortcuts that may end up rebuilding a weaker financial system. 3  References Arcand, Jean-Louis, Enrico Berkes and Ugo Panizza (2012), “Too Much Finance?,” International Monetary Fund Working Paper, WP/12/161. Cecchetti, Stephen and Enisse Kharroubi (2012), “Reassessing the Impact of Finance on Growth,” mimeo, BIS. De Gregorio, José and Pablo Guidotti (1995), “Financial Development and Economic Growth,” World Development, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 433–448. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos (1985), “Good-bye Financial Repression, Hello Financial Crash,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 19, Issues 1–2, pp. 1–24. Dooley, Michael P. and Michael M. Hutchison (2009), “Transmission of the U.S. Subprime Crisis to Emerging Markets: Evidence on the Decoupling-Recoupling Hypothesis,” NBER Working Paper 15120. Korinek, Anton, Agustin Roitman and Carlos A. Vegh (2010), “Decoupling and Recoupling,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, pp. 393–397. Levine, Ross (2006), “Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence,” in Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf (eds.) Handbook of Economic Growth, pp.
To illustrate this point: Lowering the policy rate is not the only thing a central bank can do to ensure financial stability in the short run; a central bank has other efficient instruments at hand, which, depending on the situation, may be equally or even better suited to safeguarding financial stability. Also, these instruments do not affect the stance of monetary policy and thus the economic stability and price stability objective, or only do so to a lesser degree. The difference between liquidity management operations and changes in the stance of monetary policy has been poorly understood by many observers. Liquidity injections, as large as they may have appeared, have in general not resulted in significantly higher levels of reserve money, because they were only of a temporary nature. The liquidity management operations have thus not resulted, as is sometimes claimed by analysts, in huge amounts of excess liquidity, nor can they necessarily be equated with a more expansionary monetary policy stance. Many of the recent central bank liquidity management operations have not affected the monetary policy stance. However, there have of course been changes in the monetary policy stance during the financial market crisis: the Federal Reserve has significantly lowered interest rates, and in some other countries, the path of the (partly realised, partly expected) monetary policy rate is lower now than last August, which is equivalent to an expansion in the monetary policy stance.

So, we should gradually pay back our debt, but when an old debt falls due it is common to take a new loan to repay the old one, and if it can be reduced, it will be even better. What will we do when in 2015 an installment of 500 million euros falls due? The amount that will fall due in the public sector is around Euro 380 million. The rest is in the private sector. We have in mind those payments maturing in the next period. We have the potential, in both the foreign reserves and the economy, and certainly we expect that there will be new loans from abroad, which will repay part of the liabilities that will mature. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
These were the factors behind the MPC’s decision at the last meeting to raise rates: but it may well be that there is now an opportunity to wait and see for a period how the economy develops; and this need not damage our prospects of meeting the inflation target; and it might improve the chances of continued sustainable growth in output and employment, and, perhaps, of a return of sterling to a more realistic level. I would like to finish by thanking the Cardiff Business Club and Sue Camper for providing me with the opportunity to speak to you tonight. I believe most of you know Sue and the work she does as the Bank’s Agent in Wales. The Agents play a vital role as a channel of communication not only for the  BIS Review 19/2000  4  Bank to explain more widely the monetary policy framework and the reasoning behind MPC decisions; but also to hear the views of others on the economic conditions they are facing. And I am grateful, on behalf of the MPC, for the support you give her. 5  BIS Review 19/2000

Once inflation has been brought under control, and once this control has been confirmed, monetary policy can guide short-term interest rates to a level which contributes to balanced growth. Quite a number of EU countries are in such a situation already, with short-term interest rates at around 3%. In others, where inflation has been brought under control more recently, rates have not yet reached this level but are approaching it gradually. The confirmation that inflation has been brought under control does, unfortunately, take time. Finally, in one major country which has seen rapid growth for several years now and in which unemployment has fallen remarkably, short-term interest rates have been raised - applying the principle of preventive medicine. 3. Now, what can we say about long-term interest rates, which also have an important role to play in stimulating growth - perhaps an even more important one than short-term rates? Monetary policy does have an influence on the level of these rates, but its influence is not exclusive and we cannot even predict the direction of its influence with certainty. At this particular point in time, in the first group of countries to which I referred a moment ago, nominal long-term interest rates are at a historically low level - they are well below 6% - but real long-term interest rates can be regarded, perhaps, as still being too high to put continental Europe on the road to more vigorous growth.
Less than 150 thousand private dwellings, on average, were built in the UK between 2005 and 2014 – compared to estimates that 200-250 thousand that would be needed to keep up with growing demand (Barker 2004). 7 The FCA carried out its Mortgage Market Review over 2011 to 2012. The recommendations were implemented in early 2014 and required lenders to test the affordability of new loans. The test was not prescribed by the FCA but rather for each lender to implement their own. 8 In 2017 the FPC clarified that the 3pp stress should apply to the reversion rate at the moment of origination. 5  5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  5  The stress test on the major banks then in train indicated that they had sufficient capital to absorb very major losses from their mortgage portfolios.9 The risks did not seem to lie primarily on the lender side. And the experience in the UK, with full recourse mortgages was that households would do everything possible to pay their mortgages, cutting consumption to do so.10  But even though, as a result, mortgage defaults were relatively low in the crisis, high mortgage debt did appear to have had an impact more generally. Evidence from the crisis supported the view that more debt is associated with deeper downturns.

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This would mean that their income would for some time to come be used for amortisation rather than consumption and investment – we would experience a fall in demand in the economy.6 One important reason for the recovery from the crisis being so slow in a number of countries is probably that households have a large ”debt overhang” they are trying to get rid of.7 If one were to have this type of development, it would most probably mean that unemployment rose sharply and it would probably also be difficult to attain the inflation target for quite a long time to come. In the countries where housing prices have fallen in connection with the crisis, unemployment has increased quite substantially (see Figure 6). Excessive debt thus constitutes a threat to macroeconomic stability and price stability, and counteracting risks in this area is therefore entirely in line with the Riksbank's mandate and objectives.8 The idea behind the Riksbank's policy The idea behind the Riksbank's policy can be illustrated with the aid of two stylised scenarios (see Figure 7). Either one conducts a more expansionary monetary policy, as represented by the blue line, which endeavours to bring inflation up to the target within a relatively short time and to quickly reduce unemployment. However, this policy means that lending to households will increase and prices in the housing market will rise, ultimately to untenable levels.

Jeremy Stein at the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors has expressed it as the advantage of monetary policy being that it "gets in all of the cracks”.27 It is also worth pointing out that in countries such as Norway and Canada they are fairly explicit in saying that the policy rate has a role to play in this context – and this is despite the fact that they have come further in the macroprudential field than we have.28 It remains to be seen where we eventually will end up when it comes to this issue. My own opinion is that we will probably not be able to have a completely strict division of labour between monetary policy and macroprudential policy and that the policy rate cannot be ruled out as a tool for counteracting financial imbalances. There will probably always be situations where macroprudential policy needs the support of a monetary policy that at least to some extent “leans against the wind”. But we still do not have any certain answers and I believe it is wise to keep all doors open. A formative stage Let me round off. There is no doubt that we are internationally in what one might call a formative stage with regard to macroeconomic policy in general and monetary policy in particular.
12 We are working to build up the skills and competencies in needed in the new world of finance, starting with the curriculum in our tertiary educational institutions, work placement programmes, and extending through to mid-career retraining and life-long learning. 13 First, getting our students to be ready for FinTech. 14 MAS is working with the five local polytechnics to review and enhance their curricula, for example to develop skillsets in agile software development, mobile application development, cloud application deployment, and data analytics. 15 We are also working with the polytechnics to increase the number of FinTech internships and joint projects with the FinTech community so that students can apply their skills and gain hands-on experience. In October, we embarked on the “PolyFinTech 100” initiative to secure 100 FinTech mentors and 100 FinTech internships for 2017. I am pleased to announce that we have secured these targets in the short span of a month. More than 2,500 students in the banking and IT-related courses in the polytechnics each year are expected to benefit from these initiatives. 16 MAS is also partnering with the universities and polytechnics to expose students to perspectives from industry practitioners 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Next year, we will launch the MAS Tech Talks, a series of talks by FinTech professionals to share about their experiences in the industry. This will give students to better understand job opportunities available in FinTech and define their career aspirations.

Today, he is a UX designer at the Decision Science Agency and is also developing an app to help youths discover their talents and passions by picking up new skills through their peers. As Vernon puts it: “Always be open to learning something new. You never know where it might take you.”  Conclusion 22 I would like to offer once again my heartfelt congratulations to tonight’s winners, and my best wishes to all participants of both the Awards and the Hackcelerator. Let’s continue our journey together. 1 CSAT provides co-funding to organisations who wish to send their staff for specialised cyber security training in  areas such as threat intelligence analysis and digital forensics investigation. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
Slower growth of world activity is bound to prolong the restraining external effect on growth and inflation in the UK, even though the exchange rate has now started to weaken. At the same time there are also now clearer signs of overall slowdown in our own economy. The evidence for this is less obvious in the backwards-looking economic and monetary data than it is in the forward-looking surveys, but even so the data suggest that we are beginning to see an easing of pressure, including an easing of pressure in the labour market. And the surveys themselves now point to a slowdown in service sector growth, including retail distribution, as well as a sharper decline in manufacturing output. This prospect is consistent with the reports which we receive directly from the Bank’s network of regional agents and their 7000-odd industrial and commercial contacts around the country. Of course we pay very careful attention to this forward-looking evidence of developments in the economy alongside the data, and, like others, we have revised down our forecasts for output growth and inflation. And we have eased monetary policy quite sharply in the past two months, in the light of that evidence. Our current best guess - published in last week’s Inflation Report is that, after the interest rate cuts, the growth of overall output next year will be around 1%, picking up through the Millennium to around trend in the second half of the year 2000.

The facts are that for the past 6½ years the British economy as a whole has grown at an average annual rate of over 3% - which is well above its long term trend rate of some 2% - or, if you are optimistic, some 2½%. And we were still growing, at an annual rate of some 2% in each of the last two quarters, on the latest published data. At the time these headlines were written a month or so ago not one of the 28 independent professional forecasting organisations surveyed by Consensus Forecasts was expecting output to fall in 1999; and their average expectation was for 1% growth next year. That is broadly in line with our own latest best guess in the MPC. Your own most recent IOD forecast in September suggested slightly stronger growth next year. It is true that Consensus Forecasts have since revised down their mean expectation - to just over ¾% growth; but even now only one of the 28 contributors expects output to fall. On unemployment in the UK the headlines read: * Jobs gloom deepens as layoffs soar. * More jobs go as recession looms. * Jobless up as world pain hits Britain. BIS Review 98/1998  -2-  And the facts? At the time these headlines were written, the unemployment rate, both nationally and in virtually every region of the UK, apart from the South East and East Anglia, was the lowest it has been since at least the early 1980s. I could go on.