samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
8 But that does not mean that equity-financed booms and busts cannot have sizeable macroeconomic consequences via other channels, such as misallocating resources, wealth effects and their impact on confidence. In the 5 years  4  King (2010). See also Tucker (2009) and Haldane (2009). 5  Bean (2010). 6  IMF (2010). 7  See Tucker (2009). 8  See Mishkin (2008). BIS Review 161/2010  5  following the dotcom bust, GDP growth in the US averaged almost two percentage points lower than in the preceding 5 years; this despite a very aggressive easing in monetary policy. Third, as Claudio Borio of the Bank for International Settlements and others have stressed, actions necessary to preserve the resilience of the banking system may not be sufficient to prevent credit cycles altogether. 9 A much-studied example of this comes from Spain. Since 2000, Spain has had a system of dynamic provisioning whereby banks had to put aside more capital as they increased lending. This increased the resilience of the Spanish banks, but it did not prevent a large run-up and subsequent crash in house prices in the Spanish property market. If – and it is a big if – macroprudential policy could be used to prevent such credit cycles it could potentially have even greater benefits for our economy.

Spencer Dale: 2010 – a progress report Speech by Mr Spencer Dale, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, at the Kent Business School 21st anniversary dinner, Canterbury, 1 December 2010. *  *  *  I would like to thank Ryan Banerjee, Rohan Churm, and Geoff Coppins for their considerable help in preparing this speech. The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of other members of the Monetary Policy Committee. Introduction It is an honour to be invited here this evening to help you and the Business School celebrate its 21st anniversary. Birthdays are a natural time to pause and reflect – especially those that mark a coming of age. Reflecting on your first 21 years, much has changed since the Business School was founded. Some of you may remember that 1989 was the year in which Nigel Lawson resigned as Chancellor and the Berlin Wall fell. You may remember less well that it was also the year that Kylie and Jason enjoyed four Number 1 hits and Coronation Street attracted its largest ever audience to watch Alan Bradley meet his grisly end under a Blackpool tram. How time flies. The economy has also had its fair share of ups and downs since then. After the 1990s recession, we enjoyed 63 quarters of consecutive growth, withstanding en route the effects of Black Wednesday and the dotcom bubble.
2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  A robust counterparty framework, specifically one that provides reliable execution capacity of sufficient scale and is facilitated by a liquid and smoothly functioning secondary market for Treasury securities, aids the Desk in pursuing our objectives with respect to the implementation of monetary policy and the activities we undertake in support of the Treasury. But these benefits must be balanced against the cost of maintaining counterparty relationships. Staff time and resources are required to monitor and manage these relationships to ensure that we are getting good value not only in terms of trade execution, but also in terms of market monitoring, an important function that the Desk provides for the benefit of the Federal Reserve System and the Treasury. A large, diverse set of counterparties can contribute to competitive trade execution and richer sources of market intelligence, as well as the increased operational coverage and resiliency that support adaptation to changes in market structure or operating directives. But diversity also entails complexity and requires initial and ongoing investment in infrastructure to support a wider range of firm types. Evaluating and onboarding firms, setting up transactional systems and account arrangements, and monitoring and evaluating counterparty performance and risk all take time and resources that must be balanced against the potential benefits of a larger list.7 One final consideration that bears mention is the concept of an imprimatur that some market participants associate with status as a New York Fed counterparty.

Managing huge volumes of data, carrying out machine or deep learning requires investing in human and automatic data technology, in training and hiring data analysts and scientists. Indeed, Big Data requires novel and significant human resources, and this has to be anticipated and properly managed. d)  The appetite for real time intelligence, the “short-termism” that can be inflated  by the Big Data Revolution, entails risks that “bad data chase good ones”, thereby impeding the understanding of economic and financial developments by the general public and the media. We must do our best to kill fake news, and there is also economic fake news. But, in a society of communication more than of information, delivering data of good quality, which will always be a trademark of central banks, can hardly be the only answer. Central banks need to make their publications clearer, more readable, and more visible. In particular, if we want sound data to be shared and used, we should speak to each and every one and not just to experts. We should be more “B to C” and not only “B to B”: this is a cultural shift beyond mere technology change. e)  Central banks and I would say public authorities in general can no more work  in silos. Data sharing is a must. In France, we have an excellent cooperation with the national statistical institute and we do share on a day-to day basis many data between supervisors and central bankers but the issue is deeper and wider.
Inflation has turned up 4  4 CPIF CPIF excluding energy  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1 07  09  11  13  15  Note. Annual percentage change. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Source: Statistics Sweden  12  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Third parties like the media and research analysts also have a role to play. They can shine the spotlight on exemplary companies as well as highlight questionable practices. Let me cite two commendable initiatives. •  The National University of Singapore and the Business Times have developed and publish regularly a Governance and Transparency Index, which assesses and ranks companies based on their corporate governance practices and the transparency of their financial results. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  •  The Securities Investors Association (Singapore) will introduce a new corporate governance page on its website to provide investors with more information on the corporate governance practices of the top 100 companies selected through the use of a corporate governance scorecard. 15. It is also encouraging to see an increase in local media coverage of corporate governance issues. But there is one area where I believe the media can do better. Media reports following a company’s AGM tend to focus excessively on the remuneration of the CEO and the directors, with precious little commentary on the company’s performance, business strategies, or risk management. I am not suggesting that remuneration issues are not appropriate areas for scrutiny – they very much are – but we need a more holistic assessment of our companies, and the media plays an important educational role in this regard, especially for retail investors. Building board competencies 16. A second area where we need to go beyond the rules is in raising the competency levels of our Boards.
I’ll argue that this is an encouraging development, although we should be cautious both in predicting future borrowing and in recognizing that the aggregate increase in borrowing may mask the fact that many individual households remain constrained by prior borrowing and/or a reduction of income. These households are still engaged in attempting to reduce their debt burden by pay-downs in debt. Furthermore, I’ll explain how the type of borrowing by households has changed over time. Here too there is a reason for some caution, because borrowing for education has become more common for U.S. households. It appears that heavy student debt can restrain the consumption activity of those individuals who are burdened with it. If this is the “new normal” for the economy, it might result in delayed purchases of homes and autos for those graduates who finance their education by taking on large amounts of debt. This is a potential development that bears close monitoring. Why do I suggest that an increase in household borrowing is an encouraging development? While in recent years we have certainly seen that household debt can carry serious negative consequences, overall an increasing level of borrowing indicates that the economy is returning to normal patterns. After all, with rising GDP and an expanding population, we should not be surprised to see debt increasing, if only modestly.

Other key developments that took place during the last five years included: yearly state expenditure rising up to Rls 2.6 trillion; decline in public debt to Rls 167 billion (10.2 percent of GDP); annual current account surplus averaging $ billion and increase of more than Rls 550 billion in bank assets. According to the World Bank Group report, the Kingdom has been ranked eleventh in the world and first in the East region in terms of doing business and provision of competitive environment in 2010. The development witnessed by the Kingdom during previous years has been comprehensive and broad-based. Vast number of development projects to modernize infrastructure, and improve facilities to provide water, electricity, health and educational services have been approved. Therefore, it is expected that strong growth of the Saudi economy will continue unabated and this will expand the financial sector in general and the insurance sector in particular. Dear Audience, Insurance companies play a key role for the development and stability of public and private sectors by providing opportunities to individuals and firms to improve their risk profiles and obtain compensation for losses incurred. It is for this reason that SAMA has been keen in regulating the insurance sector in accordance with the national and international standards and practices. SAMA ensures that all companies operating in the insurance industry comply with such standards and practices and work according to prescribed rules and regulations.
For risks that private financial institutions cannot self-solve, the UK Government is taking forward legislation that will allow UK households and businesses to access financial services provided by EU companies. Where joint action is required, we have been working with the European Central Bank. There has been considerable progress in the UK to address these risks, but only limited progress in the EU. Timely action by EU authorities is needed to mitigate risks to financial stability, particularly those associated with derivative contracts and the transfer of personal data. Throughout the Bank’s preparations for Brexit, we have been clear that we will maintain the traditions that have underpinned the UK position as a leading international financial centre. In particular, we will maintain current levels of resilience and our commitment to openness. V. CONCLUSION 800 years of economic history teaches us that financial crises occur roughly once a decade. A frequency that reflects in part the short institutional memories in finance. Our citizens have not forgotten the last crisis. Certainly not in the UK where average real incomes are still below pre-crisis levels. Or here in the US where confidence in banks remains near historic lows. The reforms of the past decade have put in place a new financial system that could, with time, regain people’s confidence. However, the challenge for policymakers is that, when it comes to financial stability, success is an orphan. As memories fade, complacency sets in and pressure to compromise re-emerges. We all bear heavy responsibilities to safeguard recent progress and address emerging vulnerabilities.

15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  15  Annex 1: Charts Chart 1: The Great Moderation in the United Kingdom  Chart 2: G7 debt increased before the financial crisis  Source: IMF data and Bank calculations  16  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  16  Chart 3: Risk of holding mortgage-backed securities perceived to be low; until it wasn’t  Source: UK AAA-rated residential mortgage-backed securities – 5 years spread to swap  Chart 4: Shadow banking has transformed into resilient market-based finance  Source: FSB Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report * FSB asset management recommendations and MMF reforms (notably EU, US) ** Securitisation reforms, Market intermediation reforms  17  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  17  Chart 5: China’s credit boom in a historical context  Source: BIS data and Bank of England calculations  Chart 6: Markets no longer rely on government support  Source: Moodys and Bank calculations  18  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  18  Chart 7: Our 2017 stress test showed that UK banks could withstand severe UK and world recessions and a market crash  19  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  19
With today’s integrated capital markets, we will have a global trend with lower real interest rates. An individual country with a floating exchange rate may deviate from this trend in the short term, partly for cyclical reasons and partly  5  Ingves (2019), and Frohm and Ingves (2020). 6 See Lundvall (2020). 5 [25]  because global investors may demand a time-varying risk premium to invest there, but in the longer run the real interest rate in a small open economy will follow the global trend downwards. The challenge for monetary policy is that the low real interest rate limits the monetary policy scope to manage a severe recession by cutting the repo rate. The nominal interest rate cannot continue to be cut indefinitely – a negative repo rate makes it increasingly attractive to hold cash. Even if frictions in the banking system make it possible to have a weakly negative repo rate, it is not possible in practice to cut the repo rate indefinitely. The average repo rate is the total of the average real interest rate and the inflation target – the lower the real interest rate is, the lower the average repo rate is and thus there is less scope for interest rate cuts in a recession. Figure 3: Global real interest rates have fallen in the past 25 years  Note. Per cent. Source: Lundvall (2020). Increased indebtedness Parallel with the fall in real interest rates, indebtedness has increased in Sweden and in many other countries (see Figure 4).

24.11.2020  The impact of the pandemic on the Spanish business sector’s financial situation 1st International Management Congress. APD. Purposeful Business Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  *English translation of the original speech in Spanish  Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. First, let me begin by thanking the organisers for kindly inviting me to take part in this Congress. My presentation today will focus on the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Spanish business sector’s financial situation and on the role that economic policy is currently playing and should continue to play to mitigate that impact. Business activity has been particularly affected by the crisis. Many of the economic policy measures adopted have been designed precisely to minimise that effect. These measures are and will continue to be crucial, to prevent the temporary shock caused by the pandemic from resulting in the closure of many businesses and, ultimately, in persistent damage to our productive capacity. However, despite the policy measures taken, many businesses have seen their financial situation deteriorate since the start of the crisis, and how we address this deterioration will have important repercussions for the macroeconomic outlook in the short and medium term. Firms that are most financially vulnerable generally invest less and hire fewer employees than those that are financially sound.1 At the same time, there are now signs that the pandemic may give rise to some structural changes in consumer demand.
We identify common control profiles for process types and assess their effectiveness based on risk ratings and past risk events. That informs the second line’s recommendations to business areas on control protocols. We also use the common control profiles to assess where we are over-controlled and have the opportunity to shift resources to other priorities. The risk information collected and the risk analysis performed by the second line is the basis for operational risk reporting in the Bank’s risk profile report that is presented to the Risk Subcommittee, the Management Committee, and the Audit and Risk Subcommittee. The risk profile report shows the Bank’s most significant risks (including operational risks) along with a risk rating and the status of mitigating actions and mitigation plans. In addition, the report highlights significant and notable risk events along with the event’s impact, root causes, and remediation activities. We have found that the risk profile report provides the necessary flow of information to create meaningful committee dialogue around risk issues, feedback to business areas, coordination across Groups and lines of defense, and when necessary, additional escalation. Past, present, and future As the theory and practice of operational risk management and the complexity of our operations have evolved, so has our approach. In the mid-2000’s, the Bank formalized its operational risk program.

Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid: Leaders setting the direction for change Opening remarks by Mr Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Sustainability Leadership Programme for Financial Institutions, 14 July 2021. * * *  Introduction Good afternoon and a very warm welcome to all. Thank you to IBFIM and the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL) for this invitation to deliver the opening remarks. At the recent Joint Committee on Climate Change (JC3) Conference held last month, in his address, Sir David Attenborough somewhat laid down the gauntlet, in particular for us in the financial industry. “All of us, no matter who we are, have the responsibility to care for the planet. The future of all humanity now depends on us and on none more than you in the world of finance. You have the fate of the whole world in your hands.” With this in mind, it is quite apt that we are here, senior leaders in the industry, participating in this Sustainability Leadership Programme over the next two days. Over the past 18 months, many have felt the economic and social impact caused by the global health crisis. At the same time, the world has not been spared from natural catastrophes due to climate change. The latest being the mudslide in Atami, Japan. In Malaysia, more than 25,000 people were displaced from their homes due to severe flooding in several states between November 2020 and January 2021.
If the national economy goes into recession, if budget deficits soar and public debt rises, this has immediate repercussions for the banks. European banking is not yet sufficiently diversified geographically. More consolidation, more cross-border holdings between banks from different countries, is needed. There is a need for more geographical diversification within the European Union. Smaller, local banks are also necessary to provide financial services to households and firms in a diversified banking landscape. ITALY We have seen very large market movements, following political declarations that unsettled market confidence. After political campaigns, it is normal that more precise government programmes are set out, and we now have to wait for more information about the fiscal plans of the new government. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches

We are also seeking to develop a renewed service that will be message network agnostic: capable of sending and receiving payment messages from multiple sources and interfacing with multiple messaging networks without compromising on levels of security or proof. And we will continue to support the resilience of the renewed RTGS by diversifying operations across two sites with a third stand-by settlement platform which is geographically remote. As I stressed at the start, the Bank needs to reflect the diversity of the people it serves and so increasing the diversity of the Bank’s workforce is at the top of our agenda. We have set ourselves stretching but 12  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/payments/rtgs-renewal-proof-of-concept.pdf 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  6  achievable targets in respect of increasing the representation of women and BAME colleagues at all levels of the business.13 And we have implemented a wide range of initiatives designed to improve diversity in our recruitment, development and retention of talent across a range of protected characteristics. As a member of the Bank’s senior leadership team, I have personal accountability for delivering a step change in the Bank’s diversity. This is crucial in my own Directorate but also for the Bank as a whole.