samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Beyond these demand and supply driven factors in support of a price level shift hypothesis, the growing importance of oil as a financial asset class is an additional factor to consider. Beginning around the time of the bursting of the technology bubble in the spring of 2000, the futures market for oil became a relatively sought after financial asset class. Increasingly accommodating global monetary conditions throughout much of the world economy may well have facilitated this process. This asset allocation shift is reflected in a marked increase in the liquidity of oil futures contracts together with upward trending prices (see Figure 6). There is some evidence that hedge funds have been particularly active in the oil futures market. In a recent study, the BIS notes a high correlation (0.8) between the weekly oil price changes and changes in long positions of non-commercial traders of oil futures.1 Market estimates suggest there could be a single digit dollar per barrel speculative premium on the oil price.2  3. What does market tell us? Oil price development in the past decade has been characterized by short-term spikes in the spot price ranging from 11 to 40 USD per barrel for WTI crude. Meanwhile, futures prices remained well anchored around 20 USD per barrel. The recent run-up in oil spot prices however was part of a shift of the entire curve. Market estimates of the long-run marginal cost of oil nearly doubled and now stands  1  BIS Quarterly Review, September 2004, p 6.

Prasarn Trairatvorakul: Managing emerging market challenges – Thailand’s and Asian perspectives Remarks by Dr Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the reception of the 2011 Emerging Markets Central Bank Governor of the Year Award for Asia, Emerging Markets, Washington DC, 24 September 2011. *  *  *  Distinguished Ministers and Governors, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is my great honor to receive this prestigious award, and I would like to thank the Emerging Markets for your kind recognition. In fact, such recognition is unexpected as I simply fulfill my obligations as central bank governor. To be awarded for doing your job, I guess the job must be quite difficult or challenging. More importantly, I consider this award a recognition of the dedication of the staff of the Bank of Thailand, who have worked hard to ensure Thailand’s sustainable economic and financial stability over the years. As the Bank of Thailand enters its seventieth anniversary next year, our institution is faced with a great challenge to maintain price stability while sustaining growth in the midst of heightened global economic and financial risks. We have no luxury of taking a wait-and-see approach but to continue our best efforts to better manage the external spillovers on our economy and financial system. With continued volatile global capital movements, central banks in emerging markets need to ensure that our financial institutions and markets remain robust; that they can safely and efficiently manage foreign capital inflows as well as outflows, without disrupting the real economy.
Embedded in this arrangement are also good governance and ethics, together with the upholding of the universal values of justice and fairness provide implicit checks and balances in the system. These very elements of Islamic finance, which are essential features as required by the principles of Shariah, provide an in-built mechanism that enhances the prospects for its soundness and stability. These explicit elements address several of the issues that have surfaced in the conventional financial system during the current crisis, including in particular the breakdown in governance that led to indiscriminate lending, excessive risk taking and irresponsible financial innovations that were motivated by greed and short-term gains. In Islamic finance, the process of innovation and formulation of Islamic financial products and services must also be done carefully and in accordance with Shariah. As it is recognised that unfettered financial innovation can become a major source of instability in the financial system, financial innovation in Islamic finance must have the primary objective of realising benefits to its users, thus incorporating ethical value propositions. The explicit risk sharing element between the financier and customer further ensures that these mutual benefits are well-supported through requirements for necessary information to be provided to the market on the risks borne by Islamic financial institutions. There is also the governance structure in  2  BIS Review 129/2010  place, for example, the need for the establishment of Shariah committees at Islamic financial institutions and Shariah audit.

Their firms are devoting more resources to marketing abroad – particularly in Asia – and expect their export sales to be higher in the next 12 months than in the past 12 months. BIS Review 100/2010  3  In sum, the region is showing signs of a moderate recovery, and the manufacturing sector is playing a key role in that recovery in parts of the region. Thank you for your kind attention. I will now ask Jaison Abel to provide more details on current regional economic conditions. 4  BIS Review 100/2010
BIS Review 136/2008  9  higher inflation without lower unemployment in the long term. Credibility hinges on the active use of the interest rate to attain the target. The lawyer and economist Michael Woodford has pointed out that in order to keep your word it is not enough to make a promise today and keep your word tomorrow. 37 When making interest rate forecasts, we must also take into consideration the promises made yesterday. Only then can we fully use expectations to stabilise the economy optimally. This is referred to as monetary policy from a timeless perspective. 38 My understanding is that a person will likewise both look backward and forward when interpreting the laws of a society. It is Norwegian court practice for judges to consider precedent effects and case law when interpreting legislation. Today there is general consensus that price stability is not only the best contribution that monetary policy can make to economic stability over time, but perhaps also the only promise the central bank can actually deliver. 6. Today’s financial crisis  These days the world is in the throes of a severe financial crisis – the deepest crisis since the 1930s. Many foreign banks have suffered large losses and a sense of fear is prevailing. We are entering a global economic recession. The authorities are taking action to restore confidence in the financial industry. Macroeconomic policy measures are aimed at limiting the crisis-related effects on the real economy.

The promise made under an inflation targeting regime is easier to keep when the economy is exposed to major shocks than the promise made under a parity system. 33 From 1986 to the beginning of the 1990s, Norway pursued a fixed exchange rate against European currencies without devaluations. In practice, this meant that Norway also had to pursue the same inflation goal as those countries. In autumn 1992, the fixed exchange rate regime collapsed. Even if we no longer operated a formal fixed exchange rate system, in the following years monetary policy was still oriented towards maintaining a stable exchange rate at all times. 34 However, the currency turbulence in the latter part of summer 1998 demonstrated that like other central banks, Norges Bank could not make good on the promise to maintain a stable exchange rate from hour to hour, day to day or week to week. Domestic economic considerations indicated that there were limits to how high the interest rate could be set in support of the krone exchange rate. An excessively high interest rate would not have been credible since it would have resulted in an excessively sharp downswing in domestic economic activity. In August 1998, Norges Bank shifted policy to setting the interest rate with a view to keeping inflation low and stable over time. 35 The shift in monetary policy was explained in articles and statements in early winter 1999.
What are the repercussions that banks are exposed to? The weak economy results in a deterioration in the quality of loan portfolios, and the collapse of stock prices has an adverse effect on profits. Banks not only suffer losses on their own securities portfolios. The stock market slump also has an impact on earnings from commissions and services. Lucrative services in investment banking, such as those in connection with IPOs or mergers, are less and less in demand, and the reluctance on the part of many investors – with the resultant lower turnover – cuts into the income from commission business. In the wake of falling stock prices, profits in asset management are declining as well. This is because a part of the fees and commissions levied on the assets under management is value- or performance-based. This year, the big banks recorded profit setbacks in most areas compared with year-earlier quarters, in some cases even considerable losses. This was especially due to the poorer results from trading for own account and to a decrease in investment banking business (new issues, mergers and acquisitions). Particularly insurance business accounted for these losses. In traditional banking business, notably in retail banking, the big banks recorded satisfactory results, however. The BIS equity ratios disclosed by the big banks clearly exceed the required minimum.

In the summer of 2001, in the run-up to the launch of euro cash, the National Bank held talks with over 100 Swiss companies and associations querying them on their expectations in connection with euro coins and banknotes as well as their experiences so far with the euro as deposit money. Last summer, i.e. well over half a year after the introduction of euro cash, the National Bank conducted another similar survey. The purpose of this second survey was to gather information on the first experiences made with the new euro cash in Switzerland. The questions focused on the euro as a means of payment in tourism and in retail trade. In addition, export companies were again questioned as to their handling of the euro as deposit money. In this connection, the National Bank was particularly interested in the prevalence of the euro as a billing currency as well as the treatment of the foreign exchange risk. As had been expected, the introduction of euro cash did not lead to a sharp increase in payments made in foreign currencies. In the majority of the businesses we visited in the tourism sector and in retail trade, payments currently made in euros are approximately on a par with the ones formerly made in the original European currencies. Guests who stay for a very short period (overnight) pay in euros most frequently. The same applies to some tourists from the United States and Asia who make only a short visit to Switzerland during a tour of Europe.
These include, among others, the delivery of new statistical products, improved management of the cash cycle, modernization of the technological platform that supports the investment cycle of the International Reserves and the Sovereign Funds, and the incorporation of computer security measures based on high international standards. Particularly noteworthy is the progress we have made in implementing Basel III regulations, mainly in terms of liquidity standards for the banking system and support for the discussion of the new General Banking Act. The latter will pose additional demands, particularly concerning the implementation of regulatory measures and macroprudential policies, such as the countercyclical capital reserve and the charge to systemic banks, for which the CBC has been preparing in recent months, reviewing international experiences and their applicability to Chile. 11  We intend to continue informing the Senate and the general public about the progress of our Strategic Plan and the operational agenda in the coming years. This is an expression of a broader will to increase the transparency of the operation and performance of the CBC, as an essential ground for the confidence in our institution that we wish to maintain and reinforce. Let me stress here that the CBC’s commitment with transparency involves not only compliance with the obligations mandated us by the Constitution and laws but has expanded further by way of agreements adopted by the Board throughout the years.

At the statistical close of this Report (28 August), the peso/dollar parity was somewhat above CLP660, 5.5% higher than at the close of the previous Report. In the days that followed the peso has depreciated further vis-à-vis the dollar. However, in multilateral terms the depreciation has been milder, even with an appreciation against other emerging and commodity exporters' currencies, reflecting the greater relative strength of the Chilean economy. The real depreciation of the peso has been lower (near 1% since the previous Report). As a working assumption, the baseline scenario of this Report continues to assume that, in the course of the policy horizon, the real exchange rate will go back to its averages of the last fifteen to twenty years (Figure 7). As for domestic credit, local financial conditions are still good, in line with the ongoing expansionary stance of monetary policy. Accordingly, the interest rates of many segments stayed low and credit growth remained limited. However, it is worth mentioning that commercial rates increased again, in a context where qualitative indicators report increased demand and more accommodating supply (Figure 8). For the moment, the higher risk perception has translated into a limited revision to global growth prospects, with decelerating growth rates in 2019 and 2020. By blocs, the outlook for developed countries does not differ from that in the June Monetary Policy Report. Instead, in the emerging countries the downward adjustment in Latin America stands out, especially Argentina and Brazil. Add the expected slowdown in China (Table 2).
The larger this unemployment gap, the weaker the upward pressures on pay growth, as A W Phillips had first postulated 60 years ago. In econometric wage equations, the unemployment gap is a (statistically and economically) significant determinant of pay (Table 1). A 1 percentage point unemployment gap drags on wage growth by around 0.8 percentage points. That means the 2 percentage point narrowing in the UK unemployment gap since 2012 would be expected to have raised wage growth by 1.6 percentage points, a significant tailwind. The NAIRU itself is unobservable. It is also moveable, depending on structural features of the labour market. This means the NAIRU needs to be estimated and these estimates are apt to shift over time. Over recent years, the Bank has revised down its estimate of the NAIRU in the UK, by just under a percentage point, to around 4 ¼%. These downwards surprises to the NAIRU (upwards revisions to the unemployment gap) help account for the persistent overshoot in the Bank’s wage forecasts. There are a variety of alternative, complementary measures of slack in the jobs market. For example, the number of hours a person works, relative to their desired hours, is also relevant to gauging the degree of spare capacity in the labour market. A number of research papers, theoretical and empirical, have found that such “under-employment” may also have a significant bearing on the setting of pay.

As Krueger (2018) discusses, there are other types of “implicit contract” which might dilute workers’ bargaining power. See also Manning (2003). 25 Autor et al (2017b). 26 Autor et al (2017b). 27 Autor et al (2017b). 28 Benmelech, Bergman and Kim (2018). 29 Mueller, Ouimet and Simintzi (2017). 30 Abel, Tenreyro and Thwaites (forthcoming). 24  12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  12  Implications for Monetary Policy  Let me conclude with some reflections on current and prospective pay developments. A year ago, prospects for pay were cloudy. Average weekly earnings growth – excluding the volatile bonus component – was running at a 2% annual rate, in line with its growth over the preceding three years. Average pay settlements were running at just over 2%. Signs of a pay pick-up had, to that point, proved to be false dawns. A year on, I think there is more compelling evidence of a new dawn breaking for pay growth, albeit with the light filtering through only slowly. Average weekly earnings growth (excluding bonuses) has risen to 2.9% – a clear rise and a little stronger than the MPC had expected at the time of its Inflation Report in August. Pay settlements have risen to 2.8% in a similar pattern (Chart 23). Measures of labour market tightness have increased to their highest levels since before the crisis and, in some cases, ever. Looking beneath the headline figures, evidence of an up-tick in pay is clearer still.
But early on, it’s as important to look at investment surveys as it is the official estimates. These too bear out the broad shape of the MPC’s August forecast (Chart 14). And as I’ve explained today, that shape has nothing to do with the longer-term consequences of EU exit, depending much more on the uncertainty about those consequences. All that said, there’s little doubt that the economy has performed better than surveys suggested immediately after the referendum and, although we aimed off those significantly, somewhat more strongly than our nearterm forecasts as well. The central projection in the August Inflation Report didn’t involve a recession, simply a slowing in the economy’s rate of growth. But that slowing looks so far to have been more moderate than we feared. Why might that be? Well, again, one shouldn’t rush to judgement here. Even within the quarter, the average forecast error on near-term GDP growth is around ¼% point. And even after the event, it may not be clear why a particular out-turn has differed from the central prediction, in one direction or the other. 11  I gave a talk about this in 2013, highlighting the pioneering work of Daniel Kahnemann (Broadbent (2013)).

Migration path, five years after In 2011 Bank Negara Malaysia had developed a comprehensive roadmap in its Financial Sector Blueprint to drive the migration to e-payments with measurable targets to be achieved by 2020. Over the last 5 years, Bank Negara has worked with the payments industry to put in place conducive regulatory frameworks, agree on market incentive structures and build enhancements to e-payment infrastructure and services. Our aim is to provide an enabling environment for individuals and businesses to migrate away from paper based payment methods and adopt e-payments instruments. The results have been encouraging. Since the implementation of the Pricing Reform Framework in May 2013 and the e-Payment Incentive Fund (ePIF) Framework in January 2015, cheques which had only declined at a marginal rate of 2% on average from 2011 to 2013, had declined at a higher rate of 10% in 2014. The decline in cheque usage had accelerated to 16% for the first 9 months of this year. Consequently, the number of cheques cleared is projected to fall from about 207 million in 2010 to 149 million by the end of 2015. If such decline rate is sustained, the target of reducing cheques to 100 million per year by 2020 would be achieved. The reduction of about 100 million cheques above saves a minimum of RM300m not taking into account other savings in terms of efficiency and security. Similar trend was observed in the number of electronic fund transfer transactions.
Our own research at the New York Fed has shown that higher-education institutions can help to build their local area’s skilled workforce, which is critical to the long-run economic success of any region. These institutions produce highly skilled labor and help their regions innovate by creating new knowledge and inventions through academic research and development. It can be especially beneficial for local businesses to take advantage of the research facilities available at local colleges and universities. Partnerships between private industry and higher-education institutions are an important ingredient in this regard. Going forward, I believe these partnerships will become more important than ever – particularly for places like Syracuse that continue to experience economic restructuring. Fortunately, this region already has a strong higher education industry in place. Conclusion To sum up, the incoming data on the U.S. economy has been a bit more upbeat of late, suggesting that the recovery may be getting better established. But, while these developments are certainly encouraging, it is far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods in terms of generating a strong, sustainable recovery. On the inflation front, the year-over-year rate of consumer price inflation has slowed in recent months, and despite the recent rise of gasoline prices, we expect inflation to moderate further in 2012. Here in Syracuse, while the recovery to date has not been as strong as we would like, the region’s vibrant health and education sector provides a solid base for longer-term growth. Thank you for your kind attention.

Svein Gjedrem: The outlook for the Norwegian economy and monetary policy assessments Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at a presentation of the Monetary Policy Report 1/09 at Goldman Sachs, London, 26 March 2009. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 25 March, Monetary Policy Report 1/09 and on previous speeches. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. *  *  *  Introduction Norges Bank’s Executive Board decided yesterday to reduce its key policy rate by 0.50 percentage point to 2.00 per cent. The Monetary Policy Report, published yesterday, indicates that the key policy rate should be gradually reduced further to a level of around 1 per cent in the second half of 2009. Financial crisis but active public measures In September 2008, the turbulence in financial markets erupted into a full-blown global crisis. Global economic growth was already slowing, but the situation has deteriorated in the past few months of 2008. The turnaround hit hard, with synchronised effects on virtually all financial and goods and services markets, not only in the US but also in Europe, Asia, Latin America and Oceania. We are now in the deepest downturn in OECD countries in the postwar period. GDP in the OECD area as a whole is expected to fall in 2009 for the first time since the Second World War.