samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The unemployment rate fell by around 2 percentage points in the post-independence period. Its standard deviation was cut in half. And fifteen years of sustained economic growth followed. Table 1: Inflation lower and less volatile since MPC independence Annual CPI inflation  Inflation volatility  Four-quarter GDP growth  Four-quarter GDP growth volatility  Unemployment rate  Real wage growth  Pre-inflation targeting (1972-1992)  9.0  5.4  2.2  2.9  7.8  0.8  Start of inflation targeting to MPC independence (1993- 1997Q2)  2.3  0.4  2.9  0.7  9.0  0.3  MPC independence to crisis (1997Q3 - 2007)  1.6  0.5  3.0  0.9  5.4  0.7  2008 - end 2012  3.3  1.0  0.0  2.7  7.4  -0.3  2013 - present  1.7  1.0  2.0  0.5  5.2  0.2  However, with time, the initially healthy focus on price stability became a dangerous distraction. Against this serene backdrop of “the Great Moderation”, a storm was brewing. 3 This is the time-consistent optimal policy in the textbook New-Keynesian model with purely forward-looking IS and  Phillips curves. See Clarida, R, Gali, J and Gertler, M (1999), “The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective”, Journal of Economic Literature, December.

31 The model assumes a linear relationship between bank capital and GDP-at-risk. This assumption should be treated as a local approximation and is unlikely to be realistic over wide ranges of capital ratios. In particular, increases in systemwide capital levels from current high levels will ameliorate tail risk by less than similarly-sized increases when capital levels are relatively low, as they were in the immediate aftermath of the crisis. 27  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  27  𝑇  min ℒ𝑡 ≡ 𝐸𝑡 {∑ 𝛽 𝑖 [𝑓(𝐺@𝑅𝒕+𝒊 ) − 𝜙𝑦𝑡+𝑖 ]} 𝜌𝑡  𝑖=0  However, globally more than $ trillion of assets are now held in open-ended funds that offer short-term redemptions while investing in longer-dated and potentially illiquid assets.32 And funds with these structural mismatches are growing rapidly. This liquidity mismatch creates an advantage to investors who redeem ahead of others, particularly in stress. This “first mover advantage” could prompt a destabilising rush for the exits, not only in the market where problems first occur, but also across markets with analogous risks. Fund suspensions, a widely available tool, exacerbate the issue. Charts 19 and 20 illustrate that outflows from open-ended funds are indeed more sensitive to fund performance when funds hold more illiquid assets, and when market conditions are worse. Although risks have, so far, only crystallised within some niche managers and smaller markets, and their impact has been contained, these risks have the potential to become systemic if funds’ holdings of less liquid assets continue to grow.
Household debt has increased sharply since the mid-1990s. At the same time, house prices have shown a marked increase. Debt developments in the 1990s can probably be viewed to some extent as a delayed adaptation to the deregulation of the housing and credit markets in the 1980s, after many households burned their fingers immediately after deregulation. In recent years, household income growth has been solid, household confidence regarding the future has been strong and households probably perceive higher income levels as permanent. This may have resulted in a further rise in house prices and debt. In addition, low real interest rates are now making a contribution. In countries that have had liberalised credit markets for a long time, Denmark for example, where credit markets were liberalised over a hundred years ago, the household debt-to-income ratio is higher than in other countries. Norwegian households have a high level of debt, but there are examples of countries where household debt is even higher when we compare Norway with some of our trading partners. Developments in growth in credit to households in Norway nevertheless give cause for concern. We have examples showing that the subsequent effects of a period of unusually high house prices can persist for a very long time. At the end of the 1800s, house prices rose sharply in Christiania (now Oslo). The effects of the very high level of housing construction that resulted from the rise in prices are still perceptible in parts of Oslo. At that time, the housing market collapsed.

Norges Bank has not set a specific target for the level of the krone exchange rate. With open trade with other countries and free capital movements, we do not have the instruments to fine-tune the krone exchange rate. The task of monetary policy is to provide a nominal anchor. The inflation target is such an anchor. Stable inflation expectations can contribute to more stable expectations concerning the krone, but the rise in public expenditure and in prices for internationally traded goods also affect economic agents’ expectations as to the krone exchange rate. Our interpretation of the mandate is included in the Inflation Report. An account is also given of how different developments, including movements in the exchange rate, will affect the monetary policy outlook. Over time, the real exchange rate will be determined by conditions other than monetary policy. The real exchange rate may be measured in a number of ways: for example, by relative consumer prices and relative labour costs between Norway and its trading partners, measured in a common currency. The real exchange rate has fluctuated considerably and has at times deviated substantially from the  BIS Review 17/2006  1  average level since 1970. Nevertheless, there has been a tendency for the real exchange rate to revert to this level. The cost level in the Norwegian economy compared with our trading partners rose sharply when the oil age began. Since then, the level has fluctuated to a certain extent without showing a clear upward or downward tendency.
We should all accept that in a situation like the present one in which the economy is facing a slowdown, in an adverse international setting and surrounded by risk factors, it is more important than ever that economic policies be firmly geared in two directions: first, towards safeguarding macroeconomic stability; and further, to promoting the adoption of structural measures and reforms in product and factor markets, to enhance the degree of competition in the environment in which agents take their decisions, the mobility of factors of production and the flexibility of price and wage-setting mechanisms. I believe that both strategies generate substantial synergies if they are pursued simultaneously. And in Spain we have the experience of the key role they have played in the real convergence of the Spanish economy over the last decade. And this is so because it is essential that the response of supply and demand to the changes required to rebalance the various sources of spending and the various sectors of activity should be flexible, so as to ensure that the slowdown is mild and leads promptly to a new path of high growth, in line with the economy’s potential, that is more balanced and sustainable.

The full potential of FinTech can only be realised if our systems are inter-connected across borders, and there is active public-private collaboration to drive innovation. Let me give two examples. One, cross-border payments connectivity. It is not enough that we can pay one another digitally within our countries. Be it for migrant workers or students or small and medium enterprises, it is the ability to send money across borders cheaper, faster, and more securely that really matters for efficiency and productivity. Singapore has successfully connected its instant payment infrastructure PayNow to Thailand's PromptPay and to India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI). We hope one day we can also connect with countries here in Africa, including Rwanda. Two, platforms for human collaboration. For all the benefits of digital connectivity, face-to-face engagements remain key for innovation. Take for example, the Singapore FinTech Festival - a knowledge platform catering to the global FinTech community, where participants come to learn and do things together. Last year's festival attracted more than 62,000 participants from over 115 countries. I am very happy this collaboration is now expanding its reach in Africa and in Europe – through this inaugural Inclusive FinTech Forum in Kigali, and next week, the second edition of the Point Zero Forum in Zurich. Let me conclude with where I started – everything we do in FinTech must serve a larger purpose. It must help to solve real world problems, so that people are better off.
Climate change is comparable to globalisation as seen several decades ago: we knew that it would have significant effects, inevitably and everywhere, while not knowing their magnitude ex ante. This means we should organise our transition to make it as early, predictable and orderly as possible; this is not always an easy task in our democracies, but disorderliness  Page 6 sur 8 would be costly [slide 6]. According to NGFS scenarios, for the same Parisaligned emission reduction, a disorderly transition would imply a carbon price more than three times higher by 2050 compared to an orderly transition with a commensurate negative impact on global GDP. And for sure, the cost of inaction would exceed the cost of transition. As another consequence of this universal shock, we need to enhance international coordination: as not all countries made the same commitments, and face the same consequences and responsibilities, some could be tempted by free-rider or “beggar my neighbour” behaviour. Hence climate change must be the number one priority of the “focused multilateralism” I am calling for vii, be it in the G20 or in the IMF and the World Bank. 2. Higher volatility >>> strong commitment of Central Banks - Second, higher volatility is likely, which means shocks on both activity and inflation. This is where we central banks have to do our job in order to maintain a solid anchoring of long term inflation expectations despite higher volatility. We cannot just look through it, since it is not an unexpected and transitory shock [slide 7].

The cost of the 2022/23 drought already amounts to more than $ 14.14 billion for soybean, wheat and corn producers, Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario, 10 March 2023 ii World Bank, Flood damages and economic losses over USD 30 billion and reconstruction needs over USD 16 billion, October 2022 iii NGFS scenarios portal iv The English version of a recent publication will be available within the next few days; in the meantime, you can refer to the French version of the Bulletin de la Banque de France n°243, Transition vers la neutralité carbone : quels effets sur la stabilité des prix ?, 5 April 2023 v Capital expenditure vi ECB Climate Agenda, 4 July 2022 vii Villeroy de Galhau, F., How central banks should face instability and fragmentation, speech, 12 April 2023 viii European Commission, « Fit for 55 impact assessment », Commission Staff Working Document, no SWD(2020) 176 final, September 2020 i  ix  Pisani-Ferry (J.) and Mahfouz (S.), « L’action climatique : un enjeu macroéconomique », La note d’analyse, no 114, France Stratégie, November 2022 Villeroy de Galhau, F., and Nagel, J., Fostering European unity: time for a genuine Capital Markets Union, published in French in Les Echos and in German in Handelsblatt on 14 November 2022 x
The pandemic has further highlighted the value of high-frequency data for real-time decision-making. However, the statistical response to the pandemic has also demonstrated that the statistical system can respond in an agile and effective manner through cooperation and mutual assistance. A key lesson here is that access to privately held data can advance official statistics in a relevant way. As reflected in the ongoing initiatives to address measurement challenges at both the European and the global level, substantial further efforts are needed to improve the analytical value of key macroeconomic statistics. Facilitating the sharing of confidential data for statistical purposes across borders and exploring avenues to collect data on large internationally active institutions in a centralised way at the European level are high priorities. As a long-standing user of macroeconomic statistics, I look forward to today’s discussion and will closely follow the joint efforts to further enhance the availability and quality of European statistics. 1. I am grateful to Martin Schmitz and Gabor Vincze for their contributions to this speech. 2. See Lane, P.R. (2019), “The international transmission of monetary policy”, Keynote speech at the CEPR International Macroeconomics and Finance Programme Meeting, 14 November; and Lane, P.R. (2020), “The analytical contribution of external statistics: addressing the challenges”, Keynote speech at the Joint European Central Bank, Irving Fisher Committee and Banco de Portugal conference on “Bridging measurement challenges and analytical needs of external statistics: evolution or revolution?”, 17 February. 3. See Lane, P.R.

The minimum standards were developed to help ensure that global competition in banking markets will be driven by each bank’s strengths, rather than by differences in each country’s rules. Moreover, Pillars Two and Three were largely created to promote a more level playing field for banks. For example, incorporating supervisory review – or Pillar Two – into the international guidelines represents a seminal achievement for all of us. By developing guidelines for supervisors’ evaluation of a bank’s internal capital allocation process, the Committee believes that supervisors and banks will engage in more focused, more consistent, and less burdensome discussions of the risks that banks face and the responses they adopt. National laws and regulations provide different avenues through which supervisors may conduct such reviews, and consequently Pillar 2 affords each jurisdiction the flexibility to accommodate those differences. 4  BIS Review 46/2003  To advocate more consistent standards, the Committee created the Accord Implementation Group, or “AIG,” precisely to share experiences and encourage shared approaches. This group, which is chaired by Nick Le Pan, the Canadian Superintendent of Financial Institutions, has already been long at work comparing notes on practical matters. We expect these discussions to help supervisors apply the New Accord more consistently at home, thereby providing a more level playing field across countries as well.
The Principles’ provisions for an FMI’s recovery and orderly wind down will inform upcoming work by CPSS-IOSCO on the potential role and attributes of official regimes for the resolution of FMIs. This work is underway and should be completed later this year. I’m pleased to see what has already been accomplished. But let’s be clear, when the Principles are published that won’t be the end. To quote Winston Churchill, it will only be “the end of the beginning”. Thereafter, the resolution, disclosure and assessment frameworks will need to be finalized later this year. The CPSS and IOSCO members will have to adopt the new Principles into their regulatory and legal frameworks, with a target date of year-end. The new Principles will then be put into effect next year, with FMIs expected to observe the new Principles as shortly thereafter as is feasible. This is obviously an ambitious schedule, but one that is fully consistent with the G20 leaders’ mandate. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Finally, we should recognize that the global financial system is a complex one that is continuously evolving and that we are introducing many significant changes into that system. We have to recognize that there may be trade-offs between some of our objectives, and that the system may evolve in ways that we do not expect. There may be unintended consequences.

As always, what I have to say here reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System. Also, I speak for myself rather than for CPSS and IOSCO. Turning to my first topic, the financial crisis exposed many shortcomings with respect to the OTC derivatives market. For example, the use of OTC derivatives referencing private-label mortgage-backed securities that held poor quality subprime and alt-A mortgages multiplied the amount of gains and losses in the financial system. There were not only the losses on the actual mortgages, but also on the CDS that were linked to these mortgages through the OTC derivatives market. This increased the stress on the system when the referenced subprime and alt-A mortgages began to perform poorly. Moreover, the structural characteristics of the over-the-counter derivatives market itself amplified the shocks created by the housing bust in several ways. First, the collateral calls generated by sharp movements in the mark-to-market value of the OTC derivative trades drained liquidity buffers and provoked the fire sales of assets. These fire sales increased volatility and provoked still greater margin calls. This dynamic was one reason why the market prices of these assets overshot to the downside – that is they fell more than needed simply to reflect the increase in expected credit losses. In other words, the illiquidity risk premiums embedded into the prices of these assets became very large.
Public expenditures, as you can see on the slide, restricted the fall in domestic demand with a contribution of approximately 1.2 points to growth (Figure 23). Figure 22: Contribution to Growth from Figure 23: Contribution to Growth Production Expenditures (Percentage Points)  from  -4 -5 -6  -5.0  Source: TURKSTAT. BIS Review 103/2009  -5.6  -6.6 -8.3  -7.1 Net Exports  -1.9  -3  Change in Stocks  -1.1  -2  0.6  Public Investment  -0.1  0.5  Public Consumption  -1  7.0  Private Investment  0  8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10  Private Consumption  Net Vergi  Services  Construction  Industry  Agriculture  (Percentage Points)  Source: TURKSTAT. 13  Uncertainties in demand conditions driven by the global turmoil lead firms to adopt a cautious approach regarding production activities. In this context, the low capacity utilization rates and the weak course of propensity to invest continue to limit employment conditions. In the first quarter of 2009, with the accelerating slowdown in economic activity, the negative course of the labor market intensified in comparison with the previous quarter, and the increase in unemployment rates continued, also due to the increase in labor force participation rates (Figure 24).

French banks were affected through several channels: •  First, through their direct exposures to American households in the subprime category or through indirect exposures in portfolios of structured financial instruments, such as residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) and collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) that are in turn exposed to subprime risks. As was the case for the rest of the banking system in Europe, indirect exposures accounted for much greater amounts than direct exposures and therefore for the  BIS Review 82/2008  1  bulk of the losses; the lessons that this situation holds for more refined risk management need to be learned quickly. •  Secondly, through exposures to securitisation vehicles (conduits or structured investment vehicles) and particularly through liquidity lines, which need to be managed more rigorously going forward. •  Thirdly, through exposures to assets taken back from securitisation vehicles, or even collective investment schemes, that ran into liquidity problems; this type of reintermediation needs to be given more consideration in terms of capital requirements. •  Fourthly, through their exposures to monoline insurers, which insured some products and were themselves hard-hit by the crisis and thus epitomise “wrong-way” counterparty risks, which need to be assessed more carefully. •  Finally, though exposures to leveraged buy-outs, or more generally by credit-riskrelated costs on the most vulnerable companies, which are starting to rise. Consequently, French banks have not escaped the overall slowdown in net banking income growth affecting major international banking groups.
Veerathai Santiprabhob: Financial connectivity in CLMVT (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand) Keynote address by Dr Veerathai Santiprabhob, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the CLMVT Forum 2016 “Towards a Shared Prosperity”, Bangkok, 17 June 2016. *  *  *  Your Excellencies, Honorable Speakers, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, A very good morning to you all, It is my great pleasure to be here with you this morning. I would like to start by thanking the Thai Ministry of Commerce for inviting me to give a keynote address at this important forum. Let me take this opportunity to once again welcome all our guests, especially friends from CLMV countries, to Thailand. I am very delighted to have this opportunity to meet with many ministers, senior government officials, and business leaders participating in the first CLMVT forum. This forum provides a meaningful platform for all of us to share perspectives on how to sustainably enhance regional connectivity and unlock great potentials of our region. Over the past decade, economic integration in our region has strengthened impressively. Driven by international trade, direct investment and production networks, the share of intra-regional trade within the CLMVT to total trade volumes has nearly doubled. Amid a slowdown in global trade due to gradual and fragile recovery of major industrial economies and China’s economic transformation, cross-border trade and investment activities within the region continue to grow at a fast pace.

The questions I would like to focus on today is what could we learn from the success of the airline industry? And, how will we make this happen in other areas of the service sector that have potentials to serve the region? BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  For the first question, the fast development of the airline industry can be mainly attributed to two factors: the right business model for our market and the enabling infrastructure and eco-system. On the private sector’s part, the low-cost airlines know the region’s untapped market and come to serve the large unmet demand with the right business model. Needless to say, they offer customers with simple products, including no-frills service with a single cabin class. Their business model is successful at minimizing operating costs by using a single aircraft model and by choosing the most fuel efficient plane type to reduce fuel and maintenance costs. The airlines also revolutionized the ticketing system by first offering internet booking, paperless tickets and mobile check-ins for greater convenience and lower costs. Apart from the right entrepreneurial spirit of the private sector, policymakers are to be credited with the creation of the airline network in our region. There are at least five factors policymakers have contributed to the success of the regional airline industry.