samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the current exceptional circumstances, the imposition of a minimum exchange rate is a measure that has received strong support from economic and political actors in Switzerland and abroad. Both the IMF and the OECD recently confirmed that this was an appropriate response 3 to the risk of economic contraction and deflation in our country. 4 Given the perfect  3  OECD (2012). 4  IMF (2012). 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  alignment of this exceptional monetary policy measure with the pursuit of the SNB’s price stability mandate, one would imagine that, in the future, the National Bank’s independent status will remain as strongly anchored as in the past. Finally, it is important to consider the risks associated with the SNB’s inflated balance sheet. Our balance sheet has become more volatile, principally because it has grown in size − it is four to five times larger than it was in 2007 – but also because of the volatility of the overall environment. In the course of the last two years, risks have manifested themselves both positively and negatively. In 2010, for example, the SNB experienced its biggest ever loss, but in 2011, it also experienced one of its largest gains. The much increased size of our balance sheet, the unavoidable exchange rate risks associated with our foreign exchange reserves and a dependence on developments in the gold and capital markets, mean that the high volatility of the SNB’s annual results will be a standard feature of the near future.

Nevertheless, it is not desirable, even for a central bank, to experience a long period of negative equity as this could generate doubts about its credibility. 2 Switzerland: a very special case Although the recent crises have been global in nature, every country has had to define policy in response to the specific circumstances that affect it. The Swiss case is very special as our country still has the leeway to undertake fiscal manoeuvres. Instead, we are confronted by another major challenge, the exceptional power of our currency. As we all know, the increased uncertainty and extreme risk aversion, which arose as a result, drove the Swiss  2  Cf. Jordan (2011) for more details on this topic. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  franc to an all-time high in early August of 2011, posing a threat to the economy and carrying the risk of severe deflationary developments. As I already mentioned, fiscal policy remained a conceivable means of addressing this problem as our country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 40% and its public sector budget has been in surplus for the last six years. It was not, however, as the massively overvalued Swiss franc first threatened demand for Swiss exports and Switzerland is, of course, not in a position to stimulate the entire world economy. In this particular case, it was inappropriate to resort to fiscal policy. It was therefore up to the SNB to take action. It implemented measures aimed at a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc.
1 This means that we have to take the lead and prepare for the new situation faster than other countries. If this development continues without the Riksbank taking action, we risk finding ourselves in a situation in which the payment market is completely dominated by private players with no public alternative. Incorrectly handled, this could lead to monopoly situations, which are difficult to manage, and socio-economic inefficiency. When we talk about money, it can be helpful to bear in mind that it was our need for a well-functioning payment system that led, once upon a time, to the formation of the Riksbank and other central banks and that explains why we still have the tasks we do, namely safeguarding price stability and promoting an efficient and safe payment system. Today, I shall explain why I think it is important 1 Our Nordic neighbours, South Africa and possibly a few other countries in northern Europe also have low levels  of cash usage. For the euro area as a whole, however, the value of cash in circulation as a proportion of GDP is just over 10 per cent. The equivalent figure for Sweden is 1.1 per cent (source: BIS and the Riksbank). 1 [15]  that central government – in the form of the central bank – also continues to play an active role on the payment market in the future. What is money and what is required for it to function?

Although the international money markets have now calmed somewhat, we have not yet seen the end of the turmoil on the financial markets – neither for the financial institutions involved nor for the international economy. After four years of strong growth and low inflation, this means more difficult times ahead for the Swiss economy. Due to the turbulence on the financial markets, the economic outlook has become more uncertain while, at the same time, inflationary pressure has heightened over the past few months – not such a comfortable position for a central bank. A positive element remains the achievements of the past few years, which have laid the foundations for a higher long-term growth trend. These need to be further improved in order to retain Switzerland as a dynamic business location. BIS Review 21/2008  1
11  For a detailed analysis see Aymo Brunetti (2003): „Hat die Schweiz ein langfristiges Wachstumsproblem?” Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 31.5./1.6.2003, p.29. 4  BIS Review 44/2003  effective but also more flexible in its ability to focus its efforts beyond the primary mandate of maintaining price stability. 6. Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook  Let me now turn to a brief assessment of current economic conditions in the United States as well as here in Switzerland and conclude with a few comments regarding the outlook for Swiss monetary policy. Recent U.S. economic data confirms that GDP growth has accelerated rapidly in the second half of 2003. Third quarter U.S. GDP growth will be close to 6%. For the fourth quarter, most market participants expect GDP growth to slow to a still robust 4%. This would imply a U.S. growth rate of approximately 3.5% for 2003. Substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus as well as strengthening financial conditions has supported the growth dynamic in the second half of 2003 in the United States. Expectations of moderating growth going forward are linked to the fact that stimulus from fiscal policy is set to shrink. The contribution to consumer spending from this year’s tax cuts is set to decline gradually during 2004. In addition, further substantial increases in the defence budget are unlikely in the coming year, thus dampening the relative contribution to GDP from defence spending during 2004.

There is also a self-evident need for political decisions concerning the legal system and other matters to do with the necessary foundation or infrastructure both of markets and of society in general. Finally, there is a place for political decisions  BIS Review 2/2002  1  when it comes to basic welfare issues and matters to do with the distribution of the assets that economic activities generate. It is clearly essential that political decisions are reached in such a way that they reflect the interests of a majority. A democratic system presumably provides the best assurance of this. But that does not mean that decision-making by political assemblies is an end in itself. On the contrary, a prudent division of responsibilities between the political system and markets is essential. A great deal of the political debate is, in fact, about this dividing line between political and market decisions. Economists have quite a lot to say about this; they can elucidate the pros and cons of alternative solutions. But it is also a question of value judgements. Moreover, the political system needs to be sufficiently robust to stand up to pressure when special interest groups and other lobbyists try to secure preferential treatment, not to mention outright corruption. Another important matter is to ensure that market systems work properly as regards competition. There are certainly problems in all these respects, not least in developing countries but by no means only there.
But the second is likely to be variable and sociological. In other words, agents’ responses to infection, or indeed the fear of infection, are often crucial in determining its rate of transmission. In practice, these behavioural responses typically take one of two forms: “hide” or “flight”. For example, the response to the SARS epidemic in the 21st century was a “hide” response, with people self-quarantining by staying at home and with flight, in this case literally, prohibited. But the response to yellow fever in North America in the 19th century was “flight”, with half the population of Memphis fleeing in 1878. 15 Either response is rational from an individual perspective. Both responses have the aim of removing that individual from circulation with other, potentially infectious, agents. But the implications of these responses for infection rates across the system are potentially very different. Hide responses tend to contain infection locally, thus protecting the system globally. This was the SARS experience. Flight, by contrast, tends to propagate infection globally. This was the yellow fever experience, as incidence of the disease followed the railroad line out of Memphis. 16 During this financial crisis, faced with fears about infection, similar sets of behavioural responses by financial institutions have occurred. Only the names are different. The “hiding” has taken the form of hoarding, typically of liquidity. And the “flight” from infected cities has taken the form of flight from infected assets, as institutions have sold toxic assets.

One response to labour shortages was to bring in workers from abroad, which together with longer working hours has prevented wage drift from being felt on any great scale. Labour market surveys, however, show contrasting pictures in the Greater Reykjavík Area and regional Iceland. There is an obvious shortage of labour in various fields in the urban southwest, while availability of employment declined in the regions. Great pressure built up in the real estate market, largely reflected in a rise in real estate prices in the Greater Reykjavík Area. Prices peaked at the beginning of 2000 after increasing by almost 24% over a twelve-month period. This rate of increase has now begun to slow down, and by the end of December real estate prices had risen by 13.3% over the preceding twelve months. Credit expansion In the course of the growth period, generous wage agreements were made which boosted real disposable income. The greatest increase in real disposable income was in 1998, or 7.2%. Otherwise it rose by 4-5% annually until last year, when the figure was close to 2%. Over this period, Iceland Stock Exchange has gone from strength to strength. An important equities market has evolved in Iceland, and share prices followed an upward trend until last year. Greater real disposable income and rising share prices, which at least for a while increased shareholders' confidence in their own prosperity, fuelled growing optimism among consumers and investors.
To incorporate fiscal stability through the highest act in the country, the constitution. V. As usual, the establishment of a new action framework is one thing, while whether this framework will become operational, functional, and to what extent, is another thing. It is obvious that the bunch of new ideas, new tools we talk about forced by the crisis, are focused on establishing a concept for managing systemic risk. Therefore, the questions whether it will function, on what the result depends most, are logical. 1) First, the systemic risk is not too hard to define. It is harder to provide operative contents, because of its different dimensions: procyclicality; contagion risk; the spillover effects of a single institution’s distress to the rest of the financial system; correlation risk; concentration risk; then, due to the fact that the risk can originate from several sources, etc. 2) Even when the source is identified, the history shows that there is no action at all, or the action is delayed, or the seriousness of the threat is underestimated. For example, the false reports of the Greek government for the real fiscal deficits were not unknown. And not only for theirs. It is not untrue that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have proposed to the Congress a gradual reduction or possible extinction of the GSEs portfolio (Fannie Mac и Freddy Mac), quite before 2004 when their assets were several times smaller than US Dollar 3.2 trillion at the end of 2007.

Your government has made strenuous efforts to develop the Saudi Capital Market by utilizing state-of-the-art dealing technologies; increasing the number of financial firms operating in the market and continued floating of joint-stock companies on the market for public subscription. These steps call for optimism as they would further stabilize and deepen the market and enhance investors' confidence and investment awareness. However, the need for boosting more awareness efforts of all categories of market participants on the market is still a challenge that has to be dealt with. Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, In pursuance of mobilizing all efforts to accelerate the pace of economic development, You have issued Your wise directives requiring timely dissemination of economic and other information and data with further transparency so as to be available to everyone seeking them as dissemination of accurate information reinforces creditability and helps in thoroughly identification of the economic situation. We are all confident that Your continuous efforts in the restructuring process to improve and develop the structure of the domestic economy and continue expanding the private sector's activities will boost economic developments witnessed in the domestic economy. May Allah guide your steps to greater success. 2  BIS Review 111/2006
Population mobility has thus increased throughout the world. In Sweden, the percentage of people born in countries outside the EU, many from low income countries, has increased steadily since the beginning of the 1980s. The rate of increase after 2010 is particularly tangible, see Figure 10b. The figure also shows an increase in immigration from EU/EFTA and a decline in Nordic immigration. 18 See “Tables on the Swedish population in 2009”, Statistics Sweden Örebro, June 2010. 14 [24]  Figure 10. Flow between original and recipient country for migrants around the world and per cent of those in Sweden born abroad according to birth region (a) Flows of international migrants (b) Percentage of those in Sweden born abroad by birth region 100  100 15  Low-low High-low Low-high High-high  80  15  Nordic countries EU/EFTA The rest of the world  80  12  60  60  9  9  40  40  6  6  20  20  3  3  0  0  0  90  95  00  05  10  15  80  85  90  95  12  00  05  10  15  0  Note. Millions. “High” refers to high income countries and “low” refers to low income countries. High income countries refers to Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan, countries that are also usually classed as “developed”. Low income countries refers to the rest of the world.

Inflation is predicted to fall back to the target around the middle of next year, although this will depend on exchange rate developments. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The second relates to deleveraging, or reduction of debt levels. Public and private debt levels are on a declining path, as can be seen from Figure 8. In the case of businesses in particular, a significant part of this takes the form of debt restructuring and write-downs. That, along with the resolution process of the failed banks, will reduce Iceland’s net external debt to a sustainable level over time (see Figure 9). This is a good thing, of course, but the deleveraging process has two short- to medium-term side effects that must be managed. The first one relates the negative effect of deleveraging on domestic demand. The second relates to its negative effect on the exchange rate, as economic entities with foreign debt, little or no foreign-currency income, and no access to foreign credit are forced to repay foreign debt faster than is optimal for them and the economy. This is part of our balance of payments problem. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  That brings me to the third challenge, which is to break out of Iceland’s balance of payments crisis and lift the capital controls. Through fiscal consolidation and reinforcement of its FX reserves (see Figure 10a), Iceland has seen a steep drop in the perceived risk of the sovereign as reflected in CDS spreads.
Employment has also risen somewhat since the start of the year, and if economic activity strengthens as we are expecting, the demand for labour will rise. Then unemployment will fall and the employment rate, that is, employed as a percentage of the population, will attain roughly the same level as before the financial crisis. When the labour market situation improves, we will also see gradually higher wage increases. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Even if the situation is currently uncertain, we thus see signs that economic activity will gradually strengthen, both in Sweden and abroad, and thus companies will have greater scope to raise their prices. However, we believe that one condition for growth, employment and inflation to rise in accordance with the forecasts is that we continue to hold the repo rate at a very low level. This forecast for the repo rate – what we call the repo-rate path – is, however, a highly uncertain forecast, at least with regard to the end of the forecast period. This relates to something as self-evident as the fact that we live in a world full of uncertainty, not least with regard to the preconditions for monetary policy – for example, developments abroad, inflationary pressures, the level of unutilised resources in the economy and coming measures in the field of economic policy. Here there are many factors contributing to making our forecasts uncertain and our repo-rate decisions difficult, and I shall touch on some of these problems.

The long stretch of history points to clear episodes or epochs during which there were great leaps forward in innovation and well-being: from Ancient Greece to Ancient Rome, from Elizabethan Britain to post-Revolutionary France. By studying these episodes, historians have been able to pinpoint the source of these transformative episodes. The common denominator was the coming together of different cultures, disciplines, religions and experiences in one place at one time. In short, these great historical leaps forward had diversity at their heart. Historians even have a name for this – the “Medici effect”. From the past to the present. What explains why some cities today are thriving, fast-growing creative hubs: from San Francisco to Seattle to Sydney, from London to Dublin to Edinburgh. On this the economic geographers are also crystal clear. The common denominator is diversity - ethnic, cultural, sexual, educational. And if we turn finally from countries and cities to organisations and ask ourselves what hallmarks the most creative, fast-growing, productive and successful companies, what do you think academics find to be the common denominator? You don’t need an economist to tell you the answer to that; it too is diversity. Here’s a quiz question for you. At what age were you at your creative peak? 40, 30, 20 perhaps? In fact, the psychologists tell us it is around five years old. Next time someone tells you to grow up, just remind them of that.
President Dudley: Well, if I said it was politically-driven, that would be an unbelievable news story. Because we try to stay as apolitical as possible and set monetary policy, not based on the political winds and fortunes of the different political parties, but what we think is appropriate to keep the economy on an even-keel and to achieve our goals of maximum sustainable employment in the context of price stability. So, we’re basically trying to set the level of interest rates in a way that will keep the economy close to our objective of full employment, with relatively stable price. It’s 2% inflation. That’s sort of where we are right now. So, why are we raising interest rates a little bit? First of all, I would point out that the interest rate rise that we’ve had in place has been extraordinarily gradual. The short-term interest rates that the Federal Reserve sets, the federal funds rate, that range is three-quarters of a percent to 1%. If you lived like I did through the 1970s and ‘80s, you realize that that’s an extraordinarily low level of interest rates. Monetary policy over the last few years has been what we think is accommodative. In other words, it’s been supporting economic activity. As we get closer to full employment, we want to make monetary policy a little bit less accommodative because if monetary policy were too accommodative, we would actually get an inflation problem over time.

Banks, as you know, are reluctant to lend to start up businesses because the firms don’t have collateral to pledge against the loans, and they don’t have a track record of experience. So CDFIs are really the group that can provide that lifeblood to small business enterprises at the start-up stage. It’s also very resource-intensive to lend to small businesses, so the economics don’t work very well for a for-profit company. So, I’m a big fan of CDFIs. We think it’s really an important avenue, especially in less developed areas where getting a small business well-established can create local jobs which can create a virtuous circle in terms of economic development. So, this is something that we definitely want to encourage over time, and anything that we can do to be helpful – we try to partner with the CFI community to be helpful, in terms of providing data, information. We have a lot of very detailed information about the local economies and we can be, I think, helpful in actually providing some information and support to the CDFIs. Audience Member: Good morning. I want to thank you for coming here and sharing some information with us. I have two specific questions I wanted to ask. A lot of us, we’ve already talked about access to capital, which is a huge thing. For those who don’t know, Sen. Sanders is the ranking Democrat on the Banking Committee for New York State.
2  BIS Review 26/2010  The exhibition gives us an opportunity to identify women’s potential and encourage them to stand up and be counted and, contribute to the development of this country. The workshop and exhibition also gives us an opportunity to make the “marginalized woman” aware of the various financial services and products that are available to them. Distinguished Participants, I am glad to note that many products on exhibit here include those targeted at the ordinary citizen and more specifically women, as opposed to large corporates and men. This is a very welcome development as one of the challenges to women accessing finance is the stringent requirements, which most women are unable to meet. Furthermore, despite the recent marked improvements in macroeconomic indicators, alluded to earlier, interest rates and bank charges continue to be unaffordable to the majority of our people especially women. It is for this reason that I reiterate my appeal to all financial service providers especially those who are present here today, to make some meaningful efforts in addressing the high cost of financial services in the country. There is a need for financial service providers to think outside the box and design financial products that are affordable and can easily be accessed by women for various projects at all levels of society including the community.

This evening I have tried to present a general account of my preliminary view of some aspects of assessments of the future path of inflation. I look forward to the continued discussion of these matters with my Riksbank colleagues. Our decision about interest rate policy is due at the meeting next Tuesday, 4 December. The result of our discussions will be published the following day, 5 December, as will the fourth Inflation Report of 2001. 4  BIS Review 98/2001