samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A termination or reversal of this trend would tend to raise the NIRU, at least temporarily.” It is ironic that two of the most prominent economists of countries synonymous with art and beauty – Italy and Greece – (one a future Nobel prize winner and the other a future central bank governor) should have given birth to an unattractive acronym that has spawned so many even more unappealing cousins. The first, and most feted, offspring – the NAIRU – was introduced by James Tobin five years later. NIRU, NIIRU, NAIRU – tongue twisters for the Financial Times Christmas quiz, or measures of the Inflationary Trigger Point? Take your choice. For the sake of simplicity I shall adopt the conventional term, NAIRU, to represent the entire family. So what is the relationship between the natural rate of unemployment and the NAIRU? The natural rate of unemployment and the NAIRU are quite different concepts. The former describes a real equilibrium determined by the structural characteristics of the labour and product markets – the grinding out of Friedman’s Walrasian general equilibrium system (modified, if necessary, by non-Walrasian features of labour markets such as imperfect competition, search behaviour and efficiency wages). It exists independently of the inflation rate. In contrast, the latter, as well as being affected by these structural characteristics, is also affected by the gradual adjustment of the economy to past economic shocks that determine the path of inflation.

The enthusiasm and momentum for them is apparent both from what the market tells us and from recent surveys. A clear message from our wide range of property contacts is that greater liquidity is essential if commercial property is to remain attractive as an asset class. There is equally a clear message that successful development of securitisation and derivatives will not on its own be the saviour of commercial property. But without it property will not turn in a performance which can stand comparison with competing assets. We need a mature, liquid cash market in property with a healthy derivative market to permit successful management of risk. These are essential characteristics of efficient markets which are necessary for efficient use of property by users as a factor of production. Without such a development there is a risk that the costs of doing business in the UK will be uncompetitively high. I do not know how, or indeed whether, the obstacles to the development of such markets can be easily found. But I regard these issues as nationally important. Conclusion 22 So, what is likely to happen in the next eight years? Let me sum up my vision. 23 The current strong commitment to keeping inflation in check will create conditions more conducive to rational long-term decisions. Commercial property is still to a large extent a longer-term asset and should benefit from this environment.
In the bond markets, Singapore’s strong ecosystem of buy-side and sell-side institutions, alongside professional service providers, provides a robust gateway for international capital to be channelled to Asian borrowers. To strengthen our value proposition as Asia’s leading bond centre and building on the success of the Asian Bond Grant Scheme [10] , we launched the Global-Asia Bond Grant Scheme [11] in 2020, which defrays issuance-related expenses for companies with an Asian nexus. In particular, a new funding tier for jumbosized issuances was introduced, with a doubling of the maximum grant amount from $ to $ per issuance for these issuances. In insurance, we aim to be a global capital for Asian risk transfer, oﬀering a wide spectrum of risk financing solutions that goes beyond traditional insurance and reinsurance, to alternative risk financing solutions such as insurance linked securities. Last but not least, we also seek to help Asia transit to a greener and more sustainable future, through the mainstreaming of sustainable financing. 12. In sum, Asia is riding a good growth momentum, with Asian financial markets expected to continue on a path of strong expansion. I will oﬀer some perspectives on trends and opportunities, which I hope will complement your subsequent discussions at this Forum on the Asian outlook, and risks and opportunities in Asian financial markets. Key Trends and Opportunities https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2021/riding-the-growth-momentum-in-asia  4/11  12/02/2021  "Riding the Growth Momentum in Asia" – Keynote Speech by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director (Markets & Development), …  Harnessing technology and transforming workforce 13.

This is explained in the Riksbank’s clarification of monetary policy, published in 1999. It is important that we communicate clearly when we intend to deviate from the ordinary time horizon. This type of flexible application of monetary policy assumes that there is considerable confidence in the policy and that it does not decline. If this were to happen, we would be forced to act more forcefully without having the same opportunity to take into account, for instance, growth and employment. It does not appear likely that such a situation would arise in the present climate. Inflation expectations are securely anchored around our target and everyone knows we take our objective of price stability very seriously. 4  BIS Review 8/2006  There has recently been a debate on the objective of monetary policy. Some have said that we should have several objectives, while others have considered that we already strive to achieve too many. This indicates that we have not quite succeeded in explaining how we work, despite the fact that we are considered one of the most open central banks in the world. Let me therefore now be extra clear – there is one objective for monetary policy and that is to maintain price stability. However, this objective does not rule out taking into account the real stability of the economy. This possibility is allowed by the legislation on the Riksbank’s activities and is something we always bear in mind.
Only last November, the Monetary Policy Committee concluded that it was very unlikely that business confidence would bounce back as it did in 1998. But the quarterly survey of the British Chambers of Commerce, published last Thursday, showed that manufacturing confidence had returned to levels last seen in 2000, and there were further  BIS Review 26/2002  1  improvements in the services sector. And the CBI survey, published this morning, showed the highest level of business optimism for eight years. So the recent news has been encouraging. It is still too soon though to be confident that recovery is entrenched. The sharp inventory run down of last year appears to have come to an end, but investment has not yet picked up, either in the UK or the US. And consumption, which has remained strong, may well decelerate. So, as the G7 Ministers and Governors noted in their communiqué on Saturday, downside risks to the world economy remain. These risks, and the current account imbalances I referred to before, mean that we need to be prepared for the possibility of large changes in exchange rates, although no one can predict the magnitude or timing of those changes. The second price I want to consider is the oil price. Yesterday the spot price of Brent crude closed at $ a barrel, up 34% from the level at the time of the Bank's February Inflation Report. Volatility of oil prices has been a feature of the past few years.

At the start of 1999 the price was $ by the autumn of 2000 it was $ six months ago $ and today $ Uncertainty about oil prices is likely to persist for some time. The recent jump in the oil price reflects uncertainty in the Middle East, rather than expectations of a sharp recovery in the world economy, as can be seen from the fact that the price of oil to be delivered at future dates, in two years time for example, is much closer to $ Nevertheless, higher oil prices raise inflation in the short run, and depress consumption and activity further ahead. The third price that matters for domestic demand is the average real wage rate. Real wages from the employers' perspective -your perspective- the cost of employing an additional person, have been growing at an annual rate of under 2% over the last couple of years, which is approximately equal to the underlying rate of productivity growth and so appear sustainable. But real wages from the employees' perspective, the real value of take home pay, have been rising at a much higher rate, around 4½% over the past year or so, partly as a result of the more favourable terms of trade, which seems unsustainable. This difference in growth rates is likely to reverse. The terms of trade will not, in all likelihood, continue to rise. And last week's Budget raised National Insurance contributions.
Paul Tucker: The Turner Review Conference – comments occasioned by the Turner Review Remarks by Mr Paul Tucker, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, at The Turner Review Conference, London, 27 March 2009. *  *  *  The dreadful crisis affecting the international economy and financial system will rightly prompt a thorough re-examination of principles and structures: the “rules of the game” for global finance. There will be many reports. As after the 1987 stock market crash and after the 1990s’ EME crises, they will be rich in analysis, proposals and plans. The Turner Report is an early distinguished intervention, taking its place alongside, for example, the reports from Paul Volker’s G30 Committee and Jacques Larosière’s European group. We would be foolhardy not to start thinking about the shape of the system we want, and we should take the quick wins. But it might well be a mistake to reach early conclusions on the truly big issues. Before this crisis is over, we could well learn quite a lot more about which business models and risk management practices worked best; and about how effectively the current efforts to stabilise banking systems and stimulate nominal demand work to revive our economies. We will then be in a better position to make judgments about just how much we need to constrain financial activity in the future in the interests of stability. My own working definition of “financial stability” has long been as follows. It is to do with money.

Subordinated debt may well help to protect depositors in the event of liquidation, but it cannot absorb losses on a going-concern basis and so does little to avoid the incentive to run or, therefore, the slide into resolution. Nor does subordinated debt alter the position of retail depositors, who can look to the deposit-protection scheme, especially now that it provides 100% cover up to £ Subordinated debt can enhance recoveries made by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. But it is not directly stability-enhancing. The composition of regulatory capital was allowed to become too complicated. Including debt instruments is effectively to allow double leverage. The Basel Committee is itself returning to this question. As with liquidity, I do not want to say much today about how to measure the risks that capital should cover. I applaud the Turner Report’s analysis of “trading book” risks; as discussed in the Bank’s Financial Stability Review a few years ago, making Value at Risk the bedrock of market risk requirements allows capital to fall, or leverage to rise, during periods of unusually low volatility. The Basel Committee are addressing this. More generally, the degree of stress that capital should enable banks to withstand, whether against default risk or market risk, should be decided by the authorities not by individual banks, precisely because of the systemic significance of banks to the payments and credit system.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Monetary and financial policies in the Asian network economy Introductory remarks by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Tun Ismail Ali Chair Public Lecture by Datuk Seri Panglima Andrew Sheng on “Monetary and Financial Policies in the Asian Network Economy”, Kuala Lumpur, 18 April 2006. *  *  *  Introduction Let me first of all welcome you to the Tun Ismail Ali Public Lecture for 2006. This Public Lecture is part of a series of events organised in conjunction with the Tun Ismail Ali Chair in Monetary and Financial Economics at the University of Malaya. The Chair was established by Bank Negara Malaysia in August 2000 to commemorate the contributions of the late Tun Ismail Mohamed Ali, the first Malaysian Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia . It is our hope that this Chair would contribute to the advancement of new ideas and knowledge in the area of monetary and financial economics. Today, we are indeed honoured to have Datuk Seri Panglima Andrew Sheng, holder of the Tun Ismail Ali Chair for 2006, to speak to us on "Monetary and Financial Policies in the Asian Network Economy". This occasion is particularly meaningful because Andrew was with Bank Negara Malaysia for many years, from 1976 € 89, and during that period, he had worked closely with the late Tun Ismail Ali.

Moreover, while these feedback loops were important in setting into motion self-reinforcing losses and deleveraging, it was also the interactions amongst them, through joint exposure to common risk drivers and network linkages, that contributed to the multiplication of losses. Let me now turn to the second part of my talk which I will focus on the policy approach to deal with procyclicality. 2  BIS Review 160/2009  A good starting point to discuss policy is to recognize that business cycles are a normal feature of market economies and their existence – especially the interaction of the three cycles – can not be eliminated. The best we can do is to recognize the cycles and find ways to manage them in a way that markets continue to function without risking systemic instability. Reflecting this, it is clear that the objective of policy is to reduce the amplification of the cycles and their interactions by limiting the build-up of excesses. A common wisdom at this time is that policy should aim to limit the build-up of excess in the good time and ensure that the system has adequate capacity or buffers to manage the downturn in the bad time. But because the build-up of financial excess tends to be a result of many factors, some of which are not related to financial institutions, therefore, a broader approach to policy is needed so that many measures, both macro and micro, are used to help solve the problem.
But Maastricht and the euro are naturally part of a broader history: the history of Europe, and its singular achievement of making the transition from war to peace. The euro has indeed provided us with a strong symbol of unity among European nations. It is true that there is currently some euro-scepticism and a surge of populism, but, a clear majority of euro area citizens support the euro today (73% according to the latest Eurobarometer) ii [slide]. From 12 at the start, the number of participating countries has risen to 19 today. Seven additional countries have decided to join the euro since 1999 –most recently Lithuania in 2015 –, and none has wanted to leave it. The euro is not a technocratic utopia: it is a political and democratic decision, supported 25 years on, with hindsight, by a clear majority of citizens. The fact is the euro has already delivered material benefits. In line with our mandate, inflation has been kept under control. This directly benefits household purchasing power and helps build confidence in the value of the currency. Let us take a historical perspective. In the 18 years preceding the introduction of the euro (1981-1998), inflation gradually declined but remained at 4.6% on average, with major disparities across countries. In the 18 years since the euro (1999-2016), inflation has been much more stable, averaging 1.7% [slide], and the disparities across countries have narrowed. Besides, better controlled inflation means lower financing costs, because it reduces risk premia [slide].

This could be part of a European Monetary Fund, provided that its scope of action is extended beyond the current European Stability Mechanism. -  A micro accelerator: i.e. a Financing Union for Investment and Innovation. The aim is to mobilise the EUR 350 billion savings surplus of the euro area, notably to shore up equity which is the key to an innovation economy, and also to foster synergies, thanks to an integrated steering mechanism, between the Juncker investment Plan, the Capital Markets Union and Banking Union. -  A fiscal accelerator, once we have increased trust between Member States and made headway towards greater economic convergence: the euro area budget could be used to  Page 6 sur 6 finance, for the benefit of all countries, certain “European common goods” such as digital technology, energy transition, security, and migration controls. -  An institutional accelerator: The fourth is not an accelerator in substance, but rather a “facilitator” for the first three. In terms of institutions, we would need first and foremost a euro area Finance Minister, President of the Eurogroup and member of the Commission, backed by a European Treasury; but also a euro area Parliament group, in order to ensure the democratic legitimacy of the institutions and decisions. But it only makes sense if we make progress on the substance: if not, it would be little more than mere window dressing. The latter two accelerators, fiscal and institutional, would require Treaty changes, unless they were to be very limited.
For the euro area, only a few additional data for economic indicators have become available, and the assessment of forthcoming GDP developments is currently complicated by the fact that the next release will be based on revised data in accordance with the new concept of the European System of Accounts (ESA 95). Industrial production declined at the beginning of this year, and data on retail sales volumes suggest that the pace of growth slowed down somewhat around the turn of the year, but recently there are preliminary indications of some improvement. Recent developments in the labour market show a somewhat decelerating  1  BIS Review 51/1999  employment growth towards the end of last year. The rate of unemployment remained unchanged in March 1999, following two consecutive declines in January and February. Industrial confidence declined further in the first quarter of 1999, but preliminary April figures from the European Commission point to a slight improvement. Given the latest developments up to April, it would appear that consumer confidence reached a peak at the beginning of this year since when it has moderated slightly. As expected, the trend towards decreasing inflation rates appears to have been reversed in March. In March the annual rate of increase of consumer prices as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) was 1.0%, compared with 0.8% in the previous four months. This was essentially a consequence of the substantial rise in oil prices which began in mid-February feeding through to energy prices in the HICP.

Pablo Hernández de Cos: Close of the 2019/20 academic year Speech by Mr Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, at the Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros (CEMFI), Madrid, 10 July 2020. * * * Good afternoon class of 2020. Good afternoon dear colleagues, friends and families. It is a pleasure for me to participate in this virtual graduation ceremony together with Mari Luz Morán, Rector of Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo, Susanna Esteban, Director of the Master Program, and Rafael Repullo, Director of CEMFI. I would especially like to thank the Rector for being here today. The partnership with Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo dating back to 2006 has been instrumental in improving our ability to attract excellent students and the quality of our graduate program, and I am very grateful for this. Before I begin, let me acknowledge everyone whose hard work has made this online celebration possible, especially the CEMFI administrative and IT staff. The world into which this class of 2020 is graduating is a fundamentally different one from what we expected just a few months back. The coronavirus pandemic has caused the loss of many lives and affected the livelihood of millions of people worldwide.
And the Lloyd’s market underlines London’s status as a world centre for insurance excellence and innovation. But the economic contribution of insurance goes much deeper. By spreading and managing risks, it increases the resilience of corporations, investors and financial institutions. It makes entrepreneurship and trade more viable. And it safeguards companies and individuals from perils they could not otherwise shoulder. From a financial system perspective, insurance companies play a vital role in the efficient allocation of capital. By matching long-term savings and investment, it finances the infrastructure essential to build our economy. The long-term perspective of insurance companies diversifies the financial system and reinforces its resilience. The contribution of the UK insurance industry can’t be taken for granted – especially in a macro-financial environment that challenges traditional business models. Challenges from the macro-financial environment Of course, relative to the recent past, the economic outlook is much improved. The UK has experienced the strongest growth in the G7 over the past year. Job creation has been the quickest on record. Inflation has fallen below target having been above for most of the past five years. With many of the conditions for the economy to normalise now met, the point at which interest rates also begin to normalise is getting closer. In recent months the judgement about precisely when to raise Bank Rate has become more balanced. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  While there is always uncertainty about the future, you can expect interest rates to begin to increase.

In developing a regime tailored to insurance we will also have to consider the particular skills and roles that matter. This includes the central role of actuaries, which is one of the important  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  functions specifically recognised by Solvency II. In 18th century London, the title “actuary” was often interchangeable with that of Chief Executive. It’s your role in backing entrepreneurship with science; in ensuring premiums, reserves and capital are prudent; and in scanning the horizon for new risks and opportunities, that means we are minded to include both life and general insurance actuaries within the scope of our updated fit and proper regime for individuals in insurance. By including your profession in the new regime, we recognise the importance of your skills, the range of your contributions, and your personal propriety. Later this year we will consult on a regime that includes the most senior actuaries – alongside CEOs, Chairmen and Chief Financial and Risk Officers – in our senior managers regime, making them directly accountable for how a firm is run, for their decisions, and for their actions. These senior persons will be expected to prove their fitness to regulators before they take up a role, and the onus will be on them to ensure risks are understood, measured and properly considered.