samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Nurturing a sophisticated, technologically advanced workforce that is capable of contributing to the competitiveness of our society has to be one of our highest goals and most rewarding objectives. These are achievable ambitions. They would not guarantee that the future will look as good as the recent past, but they will improve the probability it will. The hardest of these are those where the politics are hard. And this is why it’s so important that we work to strengthen the constituency in the United States for good fiscal choices and good trade policy choices. Education is an important part of this. And the work of the Economic and Financial Education Alliance of Puerto Rico can play a valuable part in creating a stronger foundation for future economic growth in Puerto Rico and in the country. Thank you. BIS Review 25/2005  3

•  And we need to better understand the interactions of monetary, microprudential and macroprudential policies, and how they influence price and financial stability. Henry Kissinger once asked Zhou Enlai – the late Premier of China – what he thought of the implications of the French Revolution. Zhou replied, “It is too early to tell.” We are living in interesting times. •  It has been a period of bold experimentation in both monetary and regulatory policies. •  It is too early to tell what the implications of these experiments are. •  We need much more research, experience, and the passage of time before we can draw firm conclusions on some of the issues that I have raised. •  In the meantime, let us pray for the wisdom to do the best we can. And be humble. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9
Despite this less-than-ideal starting position, the Bank ultimately embraced the provision of liquidity to the system over the course of the crisis, with the expressed aim of reducing the costs of disruption to critical financial services. This came about via an alphabet soup of schemes, including DWF, ECTR, ELTR, FLS, ILTR, and SLS. 3 Common to all was a  2  See Plenderleith (2012) for details of episodes of lender of last resort since 1973. 3  More information about these schemes is available on the Bank’s website: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  recognition that to achieve its aim, the Bank needed to provide liquidity against a wider range of collateral, to a wider range of counterparties, for a longer term. Two other innovations are noteworthy. •  First, in some circumstances the Bank lent in a currency other than sterling – a first for our liquidity insurance operations. 4  •  Second, the Bank acted as a market maker of last resort in the sterling corporate funding markets – making small targeted purchases and sales of commercial paper and corporate bonds. 5  Many of these changes were made in the heat of the crisis. And since the 2012 Winters and Plenderleith Reviews 6 much effort has been exerted in hardwiring them into our operating framework to make it clear to market participants how we would act in future.

By 1873 Bagehot had seen enough to declare that the correct policy for the Bank to pursue in order to head off an incipient panic would be to lend “freely and vigorously…on all good banking securities”, but to do so only “at a very high rate of interest...that no one may borrow out of idle precaution.” 1 Bagehot had two other pieces of advice for the Bank that are relevant today. First, he advised that there should be a “clear understanding between the Bank and the Public that, since the Bank holds [the] ultimate banking reserve [it] will recognise and act on its obligations”. Second he advised that the Deputy Governor must be “a man of fair position” who “must not have to say ‘Sir’ to the Governor”. This is a slightly old-fashioned way of saying that the Deputy Governor should be independent minded, that the Bank should empower its staff and must always remain credible with the public. (Even though Bagehot foresaw many things, even his liberal mind hadn’t foreseen the day when the Bank would have more than one Deputy Governor, and among them a woman!) 3. A balance sheet that has evolved to meet the needs of monetary policy  From a £ million loan to the government in 1694, the Bank’s balance sheet has grown a long way to its current size of £ billion.
Third, is the existence of overlapping jurisdictions affecting economic performance in the UK and elsewhere - in areas such as tax, competition policy, the regulation of mergers, patents, insolvency law, and recent changes to corporate governance? And can “economic cooperation” overcome some of these problems, and, if so, how? With those questions in mind, let me now introduce our four speakers this afternoon. First, Niall Fitzgerald, Chairman and CEO of Unilever, who has been instrumental in the recent relaunch of the Transatlantic Business Dialogue. Second, Donald Johnston, the Secretary-General of the OECD since 1996, who served in the Canadian Cabinet during the 1990s. The OECD is conducting a study to quantify the potential benefits of closer economic cooperation between the EU and US. Third, John Snow, the US Treasury Secretary, who will be joining us on a video link later in the session. Fourth, Gerrit Zalm, the vice Prime Minister of the Netherlands and Finance Minister since 1994. So, without further ado, let me turn to Niall Fitzgerald. BIS Review 6/2004  1

But one will have to bear the consequences of having selected the “pursuit of the unknowable”. BIS Review 62/2004  1  Looking at the subjects list according to which in the Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) publications are classified, you get an idea of the scope of today’s economics. It ranges from A. General Economics and Teaching to Z. Other Special Topics with Z1 Cultural Economics as a last one-digit subclass. The total number of one-digit subclasses is well over 600. In fact, there are no subject limits for economists for applying their methods. This attracts many of the best minds. For success at a university, articles published in refereed journals are all-important. The well-known rule, not exclusive to economics, is: publish or perish! When applying for a university position, the applicant knows that the selection committee bases its choice on the list of publications submitted. Who decides what papers are to be accepted for publication? In refereed journals the selection of articles is largely delegated to anonymous referees. These are academic economists of good reputation. The editors of the journals apply the principle of peer review. Nevertheless, Bruno Frey (University of Zurich) recently attacked this system in an article - itself published in a refereed journal under the heading “Publishing as Prostitution”. He argues that in the current system authors might unduly trim their own original ideas in order to enhance their academic success.1 To research and to publish is one thing. But professors also have to teach.
In the first half of 1973, the global economy is in full expansion. The preceding few years have been marked by mounting inflationary pressures (Chart 1). Norges Bank  Economic perspectives 2023  2  Chart 1 High and variable inflation in the 1970s Consumer prices. Four-quarter change. Percent 16 OECD Norway  14 12 10 8 6 4 1973  2 0 1966  1971  1976  1981  1986  Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank  In Norway, too, prices are rising quickly. “Price problems”, as they are called, are a source of political concern. In summer 1973, the Price Problems Commission, headed by Deputy Governor Hermod Skånland, presents its report. The commission recommends closer cooperation between the authorities and the social partners to bring inflation under control. But the recommendation is not immediately followed.1 The price problems prove to be much worse than feared. On 6 October, war breaks out in the Middle East. The war is not only fought with military weapons, but also with economic weapons. The Arab OPEC countries impose an oil embargo on the major industrial economies in response to their backing Israel. Oil prices nearly quadruple. Petrol prices not only soar, but there are petrol shortages. Those of you a few years older than I am may remember the Norwegian ban on weekend driving. The following year, consumer prices in Norway rise by more than 10 percent, triggering a price wage spiral.

Compared with in the 1970s and 1980s, the social partners today take greater account of competitiveness and employment. This process enables wages to adjust more quickly to cyclical shifts and contributes to keeping unemployment low. Norges Bank analyses have found that real wage flexibility, measured as the correlation between real wage growth and unemployment, has been stronger in Norway than in most other countries, as shown in the chart (Chart 4).5  Chart 4 Real wages are flexible Fall in real wages in response to higher unemployment Norway New Zealand  UK  Denmark  Germany  France  US  Sweden  Average of Canada 23 countries  0  Source: Norges Bank  5. The results are based on an estimated real wage relation for a sample of OECD countries, inspired by the earlier analysis of Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence F. Katz (1999). "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence." American Economic Review, 89 (2). In the estimated relation, real wages depend on inflation surprises, productivity changes, unemployment and the labour share of income. The latter captures the fact that real wages often rise (fall) whenever real wages are low (high) relative to productivity. The result that shows a high degree of real wage flexibility in Norway is in line with other earlier studies. See, eg, Miquel Clar, Christian Dreger and Raúl Ramos (2007). “Wage Flexibility and Labour Market Institutions: A Meta-Analysis”. Discussion Paper No. 2582, The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
While there were no big surprises for the CPIEFE regarding expectations in March, headline inflation figures were below projections, affected by some temporary factors which are expected to reverse in the coming months. On one hand, the decline in international fuel prices, along with an appreciation of the peso in the first four months of the year, reflected in lower energy inflation. The recent depreciation of the peso will help to reverse this situation soon. Electric power has also helped to keep inflation low, but this effect is reversible once the impact of refunds implemented in April and May fades away and the forthcoming entry into force of new price regulation. In addition, the low basis for comparison of June 2012 will mean that CPI inflation will enter the tolerance range in the coming months. With respect to the CPI measurement, and as I pointed out on when I presented the last Monetary Policy Report to this Commission, I want to reiterate that the measurement of this index and other statistics, poses many methodological and practical challenges that must be dealt with in a continuous and transparent fashion. The improvements announced by the National Statistics Institute to the measurement methodology of certain specific products in the basket, as well as other improvements to be made on the occasion of the regular review of the household basket, are most welcome.

This is why the current focus on enhancing banking regulation is right and progress on key reforms to strengthen bank capital and liquidity standards remains a top priority. The recent reform package of the Basel Committee will lead to a much more robust and resilient banking system in the future, with both a stronger capital and liquidity base than before the crisis. The challenge, now, is to calibrate and phase in the new framework in a way that does not impede the recovery and does not contradict our macroeconomic objectives. The macroeconomic assessment of the reforms underway will help us strike the optimal balance. We must also reduce procyclicality. Some of the procyclicality can be trimmed through prudential regulation but I strongly believe that our first line of defense against procyclicality should be the accounting framework. I therefore support the current focus on reducing the scope of the mark-to-market approach and moving from an incurred loss model to a forward-looking model for provisioning. Conclusions To conclude, the main challenge ahead of us is to find the right balance between all these measures and the short-run effects of the rebalancing. If the rebalancing process happens too fast, it might weaken the recovery; but if reforms are delayed too much, the longer-run growth prospects will be affected negatively. One very important issue to focus on while analyzing this trade-off is that policy decisions need to be perfectly coordinated across countries. The crisis has demonstrated that it was necessary, and that it was possible.
Sabine Lautenschläger: Interview in Der Standard Interview with Ms Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, in Der Standard, conducted by Mr András Szigètvari on 27 March 2019 and published on 1 April 2019. * * *  Can you enlighten us: is the ECB stealing interest income from savers, are savers being dispossessed? Many German economists and politicians are convinced of exactly that, leading them to harshly criticise the ECB leadership under Mario Draghi. I appreciate that people are concerned, it’s true that putting money into a savings account these days will earn you very little interest. But it’s also true to say that people can only save if they have a job and earn enough money to put some savings aside. Our monetary policy has made an important contribution to boosting employment and wage growth. And people are not only savers, but also entrepreneurs and home buyers, who benefit from low interest rates. So the question we need to ask ourselves is: if the ECB had not taken certain measures in the past, what state would the economy be in today? And how would you answer that? There was a high risk of deflation in the euro area. Deflation would have meant falling prices, with people therefore postponing their purchasing decisions in anticipation of prices falling even further. At the same time, firms would have reined in investment and there would have been job cuts. That is a vicious circle.

As Securities & Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt Jr said recently, “No government agency can protect you from your own foolishness”. Our dot-com mania is much milder, but Singaporeans too are carried along by the general enthusiasm for tech stocks. MPs have already expressed concern about SGX’s more liberal listing rules, because they fear the public does not understand the risks, and may even believe that the government approves of the companies, or else it would not have allowed Singaporeans to invest in them. Much as we hope to prevent the dot-com enthusiasm from getting out of hand, we cannot go back to merit regulation, judging the business merits of IPO candidates. The surest form of investor education is to get burnt. But we hope the lesson, if it comes, will not be too painful. MAS As the regulator, MAS must continue to build up its expertise and new skills, to better understand and recognise the different types and magnitudes of risk faced by financial institutions. This will equip us to assess the adequacy of systems and capabilities set up by financial institutions to manage risk, and to craft appropriate supervisory responses. We seek to regulate with a lighter touch, but a lighter touch does not mean doing less. Risk-focused supervision is more difficult to do than taking a one-size-fits-all approach. It demands much greater understanding of the business and risk profile of the institution and the exercise of judgement as to where dangers may possibly arise.
This would help to bring about a wider share ownership structure in the country, empower its people and extend the distribution of the wealth of our nation. The establishment of the stock exchange will spurn a new set of financial activities such as rating agencies, investment advisers, registrars and brokers, thereby creating new avenues for employment and professional development. Thus, in addition to the usual benefits of a stock exchange, including the pooling of risk, mobilisation of savings, the fostering of specialisation through the reduction of financial cost, improved allocation of investment engendered by reduction of the costs of information, and the collective impact of all of these on growth and development, the establishment of the stock exchange will open avenues for other ventures, with immense multiplier potentials. We are therefore today, through the launching of the Sierra Leone Stock Exchange, unleashing a process that is pregnant with possibilities, and we should count ourselves fortunate to be the midwives of such a promising birth. Your Excellency, Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, I thank you for your attention. 2  BIS Review 107/2007

Due to the past few years’ wage settlements, households have strengthened their financial position at the expense of private and public enterprises. House prices have edged up after stagnating earlier this year. Household borrowing has moderated somewhat, but is still high. Against this background, growth in private consumption is expected to be fairly high in the period ahead. Consumer spending on goods is rising, pointing towards growth in private consumption this year on a par with our projections in the June Inflation Report. 1  Mainland GDP is projected to rise less than trend growth this year and to reach trend levels in 2004. In 2005, GDP growth is projected to be higher than trend growth. Investment activity in mainland Norway is low. Investment in the petroleum sector is rising, but a large share of the increase in demand is being met by imports. Public consumption increased sharply in 2002, but there will be little stimulus to the economy from the public sector this year. Growth will mainly be fuelled by private  1  Projection in Inflation Report 2/03 based on assumptions concerning forward rates and a gradually declining krone exchange rate. BIS Review 38/2003  3  consumption in the second half of this year and into 2004. We expect that investment in mainland enterprises will gradually pick up from a low level. In order to set an appropriate interest rate, it is important to be be able to form a reasonably accurate picture of the economic situation.
The new information leads us to estimate that global growth will fall short of expectations, because of both downward corrections to projected activity in the developed world and a major adjustment in Latin America, which is headed to a contraction in 2016. At the same time, the external financial conditions relevant for Chile are estimated to be tighter, while the terms of trade will be lower (figure 2 and table 1). BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The downscaling in output projections for 2016 is consistent with the lower base at the end of 2015, and with spot indicators suggesting that consumption and investment have remained weak this year to date. On the consumption side, in the last two years the real wage bill has been outgrowing private consumption, leading us to expect a somewhat stronger recovery of the latter during this year. This has not happened, however, which together with the sharper deterioration of the labor market in recent months, plus consumers’ expectations remaining pessimistic and low levels of imports of consumer goods in the first months of the year, mean that this component of growth has to be revised downward. However, by 2017 some recovery of this variable is expected, thanks to a gradual improvement in its fundamentals, particularly, moderate growth in the wage bill and a slight improvement in consumer expectations. Investment, on the other hand, has seen a significant adjustment in recent years, due primarily to the end of the mining investment cycle (figure 3).

6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 1 GDP: Total, natural resources and other  Domestic demand by components  (annual change, percent)  (annual change, percent)  8  8  15 GFCF  NR 6  6 4  10  2  -2  -2 14  15  5 0  -5  -5  -10  -10  Total 0  Domestic demand  0 2  0  10  Private consumption  5  4  Other  13  15  -15  -15 13  14  15  Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 2 Trading partners' GDP (*)  Terms of trade (*)  (annual change, percent)  (index, 2008 = 100)  8  8 140  140  6  6 130  130  4  4 120  120  2  2 110  110  0  0 100  100  -2  -2 00  04  08  12  Sep.15 Report  16  90  90 09  Dec. 15 Report  11  13  15  17  Mar.16 Report  (*) Dashed lines show the forecast included in respective Monetary Policy Report. Source: Central Bank of Chile.
More than 70% of the total trade is with EU countries, the foreign owned banks are mostly of EU origin, and the bulk of financial flows comes from EU. Very importantly, these financial flows went in export–oriented and more productive segments, that fortified the fundaments of the economy, provided impetus to growth and did not add to inflationary pressures, or pressures on foreign reserves. And, this model should actually be the proper way to proceed after the EU entrance, as well. Less reliance on short-term volatile financial flows, and import of longer term capital is the only way to enhance the productivity of the economy and improve its competitiveness. Very often, the entrance on the large EU common market of goods, services, capital and labor, not only is connected to faster growth and real convergence, but also to convergence in price levels. As wages start to increase, and gradual shift towards consumption of more expensive services occurs, the price level might elevate as well, thus posing challenges for monetary policy. These price pressures can be avoided by boosting the 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  productivity, thus creating more favorable environment for the monetary policy, without pressures on the interest rates. The second angle that should be pinpointed is the implication that EU entrance does have on the further monetary integration, the adoption of the Euro as a single currency and the role that the national central bank would have in this context.

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