samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the century ahead, those skill-shifts may be about to go into reverse. To see why, we need to ask ourselves what sets of humans skills robots are likely to find it hardest to reproduce and replace in the period ahead. My reading of the runes is that there are three areas where humans are likely to preserve some comparative (if not always absolute) advantage over robots for the foreseeable future. The first is cognitive tasks requiring creativity and intuition (“heads”). These might be tasks or problems whose solutions require great logical leaps of imagination rather than step-by-step hill-climbing. Existing machine learning algorithms allow huge numbers of solution permutations can be tried quickly and costlessly. This allows these hill-climbing algorithms to scale local peaks in record time. Whether they scale global peaks is altogether another matter. It is harder for machines to solve problems where it is difficult to define the solution steps in a logical sequence in advance. Humans call solutions arrived at in this way “intuition”. Despite rapid progress in deep learning techniques, it remains far-harder to devise search algorithms which solve problems requiring a leap into the unknown. 58  Even in a world of super-intelligent machine learning, a demand is still likely to exist for people with the skills to programme, test and oversee these machines. Some human oversight and judgemental overlay of these automated processes is still likely to be needed. Machine design, improvement and oversight require, at least for the moment, humans and machines to operate in partnership.

GDP growth per head of population averaged less than 0.1% per year. Just try and imagine those rates of growth. They meant it took more than a millennium for living standards to double. 1  Stiglitz, Sen and Fitoussi (2009). For example, Coyle (2014). 3 Two recent excellent books (Pinker (2018), Rosling (2018)) chart this and other dramatic improvements in societal well-being over time. 4 De Long (1998). 2  2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  This growth experience is likely to have had an important psychological, as well as financial, impact. The average person would not see any improvement in living standards over their lifetime. Their lived experience was imperceptibly different than their parents, grandparents or indeed great, great grandparents. People’s lives were lived on a travellator. Rising living standards was not a social norm. Secular stagnation was. You could argue, with some justification, that measures of GDP at this time might have been missing a trick. We did not have any formal, statistical means of measuring incomes and outputs in the economy until well th  into the 20 century, with the development of the National Accounts. And GDP anyway underplays important factors shaping people’s well-being, such as levels of nutrition, infant mortality and longevity. 5  6  Yet, as best we can tell, alternative well-being metrics tell broadly the same story. Rates of infant mortality were unchanged over this period. Life expectancy flat-lined at 30 to 40 years. Levels of calorific intake stood still.
The way forward Becoming a member of the euro area does not represent the end of a process, but rather the beginning of a new era in which the burden of adjustment will have to be carried entirely by the real economy and in which the harmful effects of inefficient institutions and practices on costs and final prices will become more visible. The policy challenge, therefore, is to maximize the benefits of participation in monetary union and so bridge the remaining income gap with the euro area. Malta’s per capita income level is still around 70% of the euro area average. Among other things, this means that further fiscal consolidation is necessary in order to achieve a balanced budget by the set date of 2010. There must also be more emphasis on expenditure-based adjustment, particularly in view of rising pressures caused by ageing-  BIS Review 14/2008  5  related factors such as pension and health care costs. It will be equally important, in both the private and public sectors, for wage growth to be compatible with productivity growth, labour market conditions and cost developments in competitor countries. The further strengthening of competition in both product and resource markets and the creation of more incentives to work are also necessary in order to raise the participation rate. These ambitious objectives clearly allow no room for complacency. In this regard, it is a positive sign that the Budget for 2008 promises policy continuity.

In fact, capital controls were only fully lifted on the eve of EU membership in 2004. During the experimental phase, the liberalisation of direct investment and other long-term flows preceded that of flows with a shorter maturity. At this time in particular the Bank ensured that its policy interest rate contained a sufficient premium over euro rates so as to make Maltese lira assets relatively more attractive. As a result, and despite the persistence of a relatively high current account deficit, the Maltese lira did not experience undue selling pressures. This was reassuring, but it was not enough. When it was time to decide on the strategy to pursue in ERM II, therefore, the Bank only put forward its proposal to eschew the use of the 15% fluctuation bands after it had carried out the necessary studies to assess the level of the equilibrium exchange rate. These studies, based on different methodologies, showed that the Maltese lira exchange rate was not significantly out of line with its estimated equilibrium level, and so promised to be broadly sustainable. The ECB and the EU Commission reached a similar conclusion. Hence the decision to enter ERM II at the market rate prevailing the previous day and the commitment not to allow the lira to move from its central parity rate in ERM II. Such a commitment, of course, could only be made against the background of a strong external reserves position.
•  First, we intended to develop a framework that encompasses the "three pillars" necessary to support an effective system of regulatory capital: the appropriate measurement and minimum requirements, supervisory review, and market discipline. •  Second, we wanted to align the minimum requirements more closely with the actual underlying economic risks to which banks are exposed, which should help allocate capital resources effectively. •  A third goal was to encourage banks to refine their measurement and management of risk over time. By creating incentives in the New Accord for banks to re-evaluate and enhance their tools constantly, we expect that banks themselves will adopt a forward-looking perspective on risk. I’m pleased to say that, through the Committee’s efforts and the cooperation and support of other supervisors and the industry, it appears that the proposed framework will attain each goal. We can now count them among the milestones we've achieved. 1. Encompass the "three pillars" of capital adequacy  With regard to the first goal, the new framework will recognize the important roles that supervisors and markets can play in motivating the prudent management of risk and capital. Indeed, it is the Committee’s view that it would be insufficient for any country to simply adopt the new minimum capital requirements and ignore the remaining two pillars.

This spread is influenced by a number of elements, such as the valuation attached to the right to service the mortgages underlying the security, and the annual guarantee fee that is paid to cover the credit guarantee provided by the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). The observed widening of the primary-secondary spread likely reflects many factors. Part of this widening is due to higher annual agency guarantee fees which are a necessary and overdue re-pricing of the credit guarantee provided to investors. While these guarantee fees differ by mortgage and by seller, the average effective guarantee fee has increased from 20 to 25 basis points to around 50 basis points today. But this still leaves a significant part of the spread left to be explained by other factors such as changes in originators’ costs and profits. As you all know, the primary-secondary spread is a technically imperfect measure of the pass-through from primary rates to secondary rates. A new study1, by authors including New York Fed staff, adjusts for these factors to come up with a measure of originator2 profits and unmeasured costs, or OPUCs. The basic picture remains the same, with OPUCs at historically elevated levels. The paper evaluates a number of potential factors that could help explain this increase. These include the decline in the value of mortgage servicing rights, credit losses and other costs associated with put-back risk, possible changes in pipeline hedging costs and other loan production expenses.
Determinants of GDP dynamics 8  contributions, percentage points  percent 8  6  6  4  4  60  percent  50  40 2  2 30  -4  10  actual final consumption net exports of goods and services change in inventories gross fixed capital formation real GDP, annual change (rhs) Source: NIS  2017 H1  -4 2016  20  2015  -2  2014  -2  2013  0  2012  0  0 Intermediate Primary commodities goods January-July 2016  Capital goods  Consumption goods  January-July 2017  Source: NBR 16  Figure 23.

Penger og Kreditt 3/05, Norges Bank. 12  In a world of free capital movements, the fixed exchange rate policy came under pressure as the 1990s wore on. For Norway, the development of the oil industry and strong growth in oil revenues also played a decisive role when formulating the new economic policy guidelines adopted in 2001: the fiscal rule for fiscal policy and an inflation target for monetary policy. NORGES BANK ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 17 FEBRUARY 2022  This system has served us well for more than 20 years, during a period when the economy has also been buffeted by severe shocks. But we have learned lessons along the way. One lesson is that strictly rule-bound economic policy is not fit for purpose. For interest rate setting, this means that the conduct of monetary policy must be flexible and manage trade-offs between the outlook for inflation and developments in output and employment. And the fiscal rule can no longer serve as a strict budget guideline from one year to the next. Norges Bank has faced different challenges in its 206-year history. A lot has changed since Nicolai Rygg’s day. But economic cycles will continue to shift, and we need to be prepared for new, unforeseen crises. The central bank’s primary mission remains the same: to promote economic stability and ensure confidence in the monetary system. Thank you all for your kind attention during my time as Governor of Norges Bank. Central bank governors come and go, But not the central bank, as you well know.
The strategy also provides for further enhancements to e-government services, and sets new targets aimed at raising the broadband connectivity ratio and computer literacy rate among households. Malta’s investment promotion efforts meanwhile have been refocused to exploit the island’s strategic location as a bridge between two continents, as well as its potential to serve as a hub for international business in areas such as health care, software development and education. Conclusion The next phase in Malta’s economic history, therefore, promises to be a challenging one, but it should also be an exciting time. For a country with a population of 400,000 and a GDP of under five billion euro, having a major reserve unit as its domestic currency is indeed a significant advantage. We thus have good reason to feel encouraged and, as a people that has suffered repeatedly as a consequence of divisions on the European mainland, also reassured that we are about to reinforce our integration in Europe with full economic and monetary union. For, while the EU has for fifty years brought peace and stability to the peoples of Europe, the Single Market and Economic and Monetary Union have created a congenial environment in which economies can grow and people prosper. 6  BIS Review 14/2008

This is associated with oil price trends and external demand. The financial account balance of the private sector will shrink to about 1% of GDP in 2020–2022. As usual, making our decisions, we also factored in risks. We are currently talking a lot about disinflationary factors, and they do prevail for the moment. However, there are also proinflationary risks over the forecast horizon. First, such risks are associated with external factors, which include the world economy and global financial markets. Second, it is hard to exactly assess the extent to which the inflation slowdown in the food market is caused by temporary factors, the timing and the likelihood of the turnaround in their dynamics and the intensity of balancing changes in food prices given the current low base. Third, as we have noted, the aggregate effect of five earlier key rate cuts will be gradual and its estimation will take time. As for the fiscal policy, the situation seems more balanced in terms of its effect on inflation in 2020, given that budget spending, including into the national projects, will be distributed over time. Let me remind you that the next policy meeting of the Board of Directors will also be a core one, same as today. This is associated with the changes in the schedule of the Board of Directors’ policy meetings. We are going to sum up the results of 2019 at our next meeting.
Elvira Nabiullina: Speech - Federation Council’s Financial Market Development Board meeting Speech by Ms Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Bank of Russia, at the Federation Council’s Financial Market Development Board meeting, Moscow, 8 December 2020. * * * Good afternoon, dear Speaker and fellow colleagues, There is no denying the fact that the financial sector plays a critical part in the context of our efforts to deliver on the national development agenda. Financial intermediaries and the stock market work to ensure that savings transform into investment, businesses obtain the resources they need for development, and consumers gain the tools to grow their wealth. It is within our regulator’s mandate to oil the gears of all these mechanisms and make sure the financial sector provides excellent performance. This means that the costs of businesses and consumers related to their financial objectives should go down. And this means, as the Speaker has mentioned, that we should secure the emergence of long-term money. My deputy, Sergey Shvetsov, is here today to tell you more on our financial market agenda. In my opening remarks, I would like to expand on a number of key points in our operations as a regulator, which have, in my view, major implications. It would be fair to say that this year has spurred transformation in the financial sector. Among key developments are accelerated digitalisation, the Bank of Russia’s switch to soft monetary policy, falling interest rates in the economy, pandemic-induced borrowers’ problems and a large volume of restructured loans.

Now, the last point I would like to comment on in a little more detail is an issue the Speaker 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  has already raised, and one we are very concerned about. This is the issue of stock market development. This market is undergoing drastic and rapid changes. Retail investment is becoming a mass phenomenon, with the numbers of retail investors growing very rapidly. In two years alone, the number of individuals who opened brokerage accounts rose more than fourfold to 8.5 million people (equalling the number of accounts). This is a positive development, which we all acknowledge, and the real sector is poised to benefit from it. Still, our concern is about people. Do they really understand the risks of the stock market? Is there enough transparency in the operations of financial institutions and their offerings? It was only deposits that consumers dealt with until recently. The deposit is a fairly simple and reliable product with up to 1.4m insurance coverage. At this juncture, however, deposit interest rates are in decline, as are other interest rates in the economy, including loan rates, which makes people try their hand at the stock market. With many of them being inexperienced, we can ill afford a stock market that has deceived their expectations. We have passed a non-qualified investor protection law, which we previously had a thorough discussion about at the Federation Council.
The crisis has clearly shown how inadequate regulation and excessive risk taking in the financial sector in developed economies can lead to unpredictable consequences in the real sector, both nationally and globally, stressing the need for a better understanding of the links between the financial and the real sector, such as and cross-border ties in the context of rising globalization. The fact that the roots of the global crisis were precisely in the financial sector suggests that most of the post-crisis needs for statistical changes touch exactly the central banks. Although the outbreak of the global crisis can not be attributed to the lack of statistical data, however, significant statistical gaps became evident and they are best reflected through the G-20 Data Gaps initiative for identifying recommendations to fill in these statistical gaps. The recommendations are mainly located in the following key segments: The first segment is better recognition of the increase in the financial sector risks. It was found that timely detection is extremely important for protection against crises. In this domain, emphasis is placed on developing a broader base of financial stability indicators, which we prepare on a regular basis. In fact, in the post-crisis period, this recommendation led to a dramatically increased number of central banks that prepare these indicators. Also, in the context of financial systems and markets, a focus was placed on detailed data on securities, in order to obtain a better analytical infrastructure to detect the risks of individual exposures and cross-sectoral spillover.

The third segment is better detection of economy sensitivity to shocks, which is achieved by establishing sector accounts, and in their frames financial accounts, which will disclose the links between all sectors in an economy, and therefore, the possibilities for shock spillover from one sector to another. In 2017, for the first time, the National Bank prepared financial accounts for all sectors of the economy, which were submitted to Eurostat in an experimental format. The fourth segment is the improvement of the statistical communication process. In this context, on a regular basis, we are making efforts to improve communication with the public, also by conducting surveys for the satisfaction of the reporters and users, creating the possibility for direct electronic communication on all issues related to statistics and undertaking financial education activities. In 2016, we started with a regular publication of press releases on statistics, as well as a project, which is in the final phase, for establishing a statistical internet portal for external data users. In doing so, in the basis of all these new statistical requirements, lies the need for providing granular, rather than aggregate data. The crisis has not called into question the traditional aggregate economic statistics, but has shown that it is not enough.
The annual overall inflation at 16.8% was also 6.1 percentage points below the end-February 2003 inflation outturn of 22.9%. Broad money •  Preliminary data indicate that broad money (M3)1 growth slowed down to 1.4% (8.4% in December 2003) to K4,530.7 billion in January 2004 from K4,467.9 billion in December 2003. This growth was 1.0 percentage points lower than the 2.4% recorded during the corresponding period in 2003, but was 0.4 percentage points above the programmed money supply growth of 1.0% for the month. •  The growth in broad money during the period under review was largely on account of the increase in net foreign assets of the banking system, which increased by 2.9% to K2,364.9 billion. •  Year-on-year broad money growth on the other hand declined by 1.2 percentage points to 22.2% in January 2004 from 23.4% in December 2003. Domestic credit •  1  Preliminary data show that growth in domestic credit slowed down to 2.3% (3.1% in December 2003) to K4,310.9 billion in January 2004 from K4,215.1 billion in December  Broad money is here defined to include currency outside banks, demand deposits at Bank of Zambia and commercial banks, local currency savings and time deposits, and foreign currency deposits. BIS Review 27/2004  1  2003. This was mainly attributed to the decline in borrowing by the public sector to negative 4.0% from 22.5%.

Finally, I would like to discuss the importance of Islamic finance as an important mode for financing economic transformation. Islamic finance requires financial transactions to be supported by an underlying productive economic activity that will generate legitimate income and wealth. This gives rise to a close link between financial transactions and productive flows. Therefore, the growth in Islamic financial assets is generally in line with the growth of underlying economic activities, thereby ensuring that the financial system is always grounded to the real economy. Other inherent features arising from risk sharing also contribute to the stability and integrity of Islamic finance. Thus, Islamic finance, embraced in its entirety, is supportive of sustainable economic growth. Islamic finance offers an extensive range of innovative financial products and services from consumer financing, asset and wealth management to Islamic insurance and capital markets. The sukuk market has become a highly competitive fundraising option for large scale projects and infrastructure development. With an annual growth rate of 40 percent, sukuk instruments are fast emerging as an attractive new asset class for investors, while evolving to become a preferred financing and capital raising option for issuers. In Malaysia, the sukuk market now accounts for more than fifty percent of our bond market, drawing the participation of not only our own corporates but also a wide range of international corporations and multilateral agencies. In Malaysia, a comprehensive Islamic financial system operates in parallel to the conventional financial system. This is now internationalized to enhance our interlinkages with other emerging economies and traditional markets.