samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Take the naval reference and the gender bias out, and you have the ultimate guide for all of you who depart Bryant today aspiring to lead: You must be more than smart and have more than a mighty intellect; you must develop the whole woman, the whole man to be a leader in whatever field you chose. A smattering of Latin Which brings me to the last requirement for most all commencement orations – a smattering of Latin. Commencement speakers at great schools seem to delight in showing off their command of an ancient tongue. Many a commencement speaker might have concluded this afternoon’s remarks with labor omnia vincit – a stern reminder that labor conquers all things. It is true, indeed, that you can’t rest on your laurels or your good family name or a Bryant education or just plain good luck. You have to work hard and sweat to succeed. And in doing so, you have to remember mens sana in corpore sano – a sound mind resides best in a sound body. But that is way too ponderous. This is, after all, a festive day!

2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Babe Fisher and John Paul Jones Preparing to speak to you today, I asked: How might I, a central banker whose musings are given to the arcana of economic and monetary policy, possibly improve upon the wisdom of the ultimate sources? Not easily. So I dug deep into my memory bank and called upon a source more erudite than the lessons of the Bible or the Quran, Confucius or Shakespeare, and even more insightful than Diana Sorensen – Mike’s and my mother, Magnhild Andersen Fisher, whom everybody called “Babe”. Babe Fisher never enjoyed the benefit of the type of education you have received. Yet she was a wise woman. She was a kind of female Nordic Yogi Berra who dispensed exquisite pearls of wisdom to her boys. One is especially germane for this ceremony. Our mother would say: “Never let your brains go to your head”. The pun is horrific but the message is profound: To achieve success, you will need to keep your superb education and your considerable talent in perspective. Brains and the gift of talent are necessary, but they are insufficient for success in life. Time and again, in business and universities and government we see instances in which women and men of towering intellect get far at first but ultimately snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They do so because they have forgotten to develop their emotional quotient with the same devotion they applied to developing their intelligence quotient.
In practice people may take time to react to real income shocks; it’s also possible they expect some of the recent declines in energy prices to be reversed 10. But, in the data, there’s no correlation between household saving rates and changes in real energy prices, either here or elsewhere in the OECD 11. This suggests their effects on income are in general matched by equivalent shifts in real spending. Note that the UK is not the only place where consumer confidence has risen in recent months (Chart 10). 9  This point was made in a recent speech by the Governor (Carney (2015)) and, in an article, by Kristin Forbes (2015). 10  Forward markets discount an oil price of $ at the end of next year, quite a bit higher than the current spot price though still well below where it was in mid-2014 $ and $ respectively). 11  In regressions of changes in saving rates on the contribution to real income growth of energy and food prices, the estimated coefficient is close to zero and statistically insignificant in all 17 OECD countries for which we have data. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Nor is it unusual to see stronger demand at a time when these survey measures of household inflation expectations are falling. Typically, these near-term expectations surveys track actual inflation 12.

Net of interest payments, growth of nominal incomes has been little different over the past six years than it was in the pre-crisis decade (Chart 7). But balance sheets and gross debts are clearly far larger now than in the late 19th century. Productivity and real income growth have been significantly lower and, partly for that reason, the neutral real interest rate fell steeply after the crisis and almost certainly into appreciably negative territory. So even without deflation, central banks have found themselves up against the zero lower bound and compelled to employ unconventional policy tools. As a result, there is now less room to deal with any entrenched and protracted deflation, in prices and wages alike, should that occur. Chart 6 Spread between nominal interest rates, income growth broadly stable  Source: ONS. Chart 7 Net of interest payments, nominal income growth little changed since crisis  Source: ONS. A good disinflation so far… What are the chances of such a thing? Certainly what we’ve had in the past few months doesn’t qualify. In fact, it’s been a largely positive story, because the fall in inflation has been  8  6  Recall that the evolution of debt:income ratios depends on the gap between interest rates and income growth (footnote 3), i.e. the two lines in Chart 6. The fact this gap failed to widen didn’t prevent a significant impact of the credit crunch on spending: that’s effectively because, during such episodes, the maximum allowable debt:income ratio declines.
At the Riksbank, we communicate our view on financial stability through different publications. A Financial Stability Report is published twice a year and we also publish articles on issues of financial stability in our journal, Economic Review. A new regulatory framework governing the way in which  2  BIS Review 24/2003  banking crises are to be managed and resolved has been proposed by a government inquiry that was set up after the Swedish banking crisis. The Riksbank strongly supports the implementation of such a framework as it would increase transparency and thereby the efficiency of crisis management even further. We have also sought to have these principles applied internationally. Transparency is also important in the sense that it facilitates external evaluation of the operations of a central bank on the basis of relevant information. This type of evaluation will normally enhance efficiency, and it is especially important in cases where the central bank determines its own budget. The monetary policy of Sveriges Riksbank is reported to the Swedish parliament twice a year and the bank's overall activities are subjected to regular evaluation by the Parliamentary Auditors. They recently performed a comprehensive audit of the operations of the Riksbank in which they highlighted a number of areas where costs appear to have increased more than expected. We welcome this evaluation, which has given us fresh inspiration in our search for increased efficiency. Finally, transparency stimulates improvement of a central bank's internal analysis and decision-making processes.

Lars Heikensten: How to promote and measure central bank efficiency Speech by Mr Lars Heikensten, Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, at the Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, 23 May 2003. *  *  *  Let me begin by welcoming you all to Stockholm and Sveriges Riksbank. We have more or less made it a practice to organise an academic conference or workshop at least every second year on a topic which we think is relevant for central bankers. Last year the theme of the conference was Monetary Policy and Financial Markets in an Enlarged European Union. This time we have chosen the topic of Central Bank Efficiency. To attain legitimacy - and keep it - central banks have to use taxpayers' money in an efficient way, not least in countries like Sweden where the central bank is now an independent institution. This is an issue of great importance to the bank, and it has occupied much of our time in recent years. We want to continue this work and develop our thinking in the area. Efficiency is also a very important issue from a European perspective and will be as important should we become a member of the Eurosystem. Central bank efficiency is a fairly abstract concept that encapsulates several areas ranging from the roles that are appropriate for central banks to perform, to cost efficiency in a narrower sense. An investigation of the relevant literature shows that there has not been much research conducted on any of these issues.
Each of us inside the 18-member Governing Council has to take into account the superior interests of the whole euro area. My colleagues and I are convinced that our present real time detailed communication is, in our case which is unique, superior to mentioning individual votes which could wrongly suggest in the eyes of some that the Governing Council is a place where we are confronting national interests which is not the case and should never be the case. BIS Review 5/2005  3  As the “porte parole” of the ECB and its Governing Council, I think it is remarkable that we act as a team with high team spirit as regards the handling of a complex communication network dealing with 306 million European fellow citizens speaking their languages. The “single voice” principle in monetary policy was introduced from the very beginning and has been efficiently applied in my judgement. As regards non-monetary policy decisions by the Governing Council we have adopted a new procedure in December by placing a communication on our website one day after the second meeting of the month. Previously we communicated these decisions in various ways, for example by press releases or by inserting information under other matters into the introductory statement. I hope that the new procedure will contribute to easier access to non-monetary policy decisions. The document refers to “Decisions” which means that, as a rule, it will cover those issues for which the Governing Council has concluded its deliberations, i.e. decisions have been taken.

What is important is that at the moment of the decision, after having had the possibility of analysing all pertinent information and data, market participants can correctly predict our decision thanks to their intimate knowledge of our policy. 2  BIS Review 5/2005  ECB’s communication in practice Some features of the ECB are bringing about major additional challenges for external communications. In particular, the ECB operates in a multicultural environment with 12 different cultures and 10 different languages in the euro area and 25 cultures and 20 languages within the scope of the European System of Central Banks. And, the ECB was given the very ambitious challenge to be fully credible from day one, without track record and to issue a currency which would be immediately as credible as the most credible legacy currencies. In the practical implementation of the communication policy we make use of a wide range of communication tools. I will mention only a few of them here: First, the monthly press conferences after the first Governing Council meeting in each month. The introductory statement at the press conference is a key element in our communication as it conveys the collective view of the ECB’s Governing Council on the monetary policy stance in real time. In fact, the decision to hold a press conference after each policy meeting was unheard of among major central banks prior to the euro.
The interest rate reductions and the fall in the krone exchange rate imply that inflation will gradually increase and will be considerably higher than the current level as early as next spring. After such a period of very low inflation as we have now witnessed, it is appropriate to be particularly vigilant in monetary policy in the event that inflation does not increase as projected. We have little experience concerning the effects of such considerable monetary policy easing as that seen over the past year. It is uncertain how economic agents will adapt to a real interest rate that is as low as it is now. Activity in the Norwegian economy may pick up more swiftly than expected. Excess capacity may be reduced more rapidly and unemployment may fall to a greater extent than we have projected. If new pressures arise in the Norwegian economy, inflation may be higher than projected. Growth in household borrowing, which has slowed since spring 2002, may accelerate again. A renewed rise in house prices and the debt burden may provide the basis for new imbalances in the economy. On the other hand, growth in corporate borrowing has remained very low. The projections are based on the assumption that wage growth is primarily determined by overall conditions in the labour market. It cannot be ruled out, however, that profitability in internationally exposed industries will again play a more prominent role in wage formation than has been the case in recent years.

This has resulted in more independent directors being appointed to the boards in most of the financial institutions. The environment confronting financial institutions will continue to be immensely challenging, particularly in the coming years as global financial conditions remain highly volatile and uncertain, and as regulatory reforms start to take effect. In this environment, a number of areas will become more important to reinforce the effectiveness of boards and sound governance. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  First, board-level engagements on risk issues will need to be strengthened further. This can only be achieved if boards have a sound understanding of the institution’s business model, and a strong grasp of the changing complexion of risks in which the institution is exposed. Committed resources should therefore be available to the board to support their understanding of material developments affecting the institution, and to hone their judgement on matters concerning risk strategy. This should include relevant and meaningful management of information flows and risk analysis to the board, the ability to retain talent including external expertise where required, the ability to attract individuals with relevant competencies and experience to serve on boards, and the budget for board development and education. Second, with the growing expansion of financial institutions in scale and complexity, there is a need to inject greater diversity into boards to enable the board collectively to deal with the broader range of issues across the institution’s activities. This needs to be embedded within the framework for board renewal and succession.
Rajan, Raghuram (2005), “Has financial development made the world riskier?”, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium at Jackson Hole. Rogoff, Ken (2020), “The case for deeply negative interest rates”, available at https://think.ing.com/opinions/the-case-for-deeply-negative-interest-rates. Sveriges Riksbank (2020), “Consultation response, SOU 2019:46”. 13 [13]

However, we assessed that this was largely due to temporary factors and that growth would in future be good, see Figure 1. There are several factors that point to a favourable development in the global economy going forward. One factor is the oil price, which has fallen substantially over the past year. This can be expected to have a positive effect on growth in the countries that do not produce oil. For instance, it provides scope for increased consumption in these countries, which could favour global growth. Another factor is that the relatively large fiscal policy restraint in the large developed economies in recent years appears to be over. During 2015 and 2016, the restraints will be  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  relatively small. Fiscal policy will not therefore have the same restrictive effect on GDP growth in the years ahead as before. A further factor that affects developments in the global economy is the expansionary monetary policy around the world. The policy gives continued support to credit granting and helps to push up inflation expectations, which benefits both consumption and investment. This is particularly true of the euro area, where inflation expectations have now started to rise and lending has begun to show a more positive trend. Many countries also have an unmet need to invest, following the financial crisis, and this can be met as the credit supply improves.
As I have already mentioned, our baseline scenario estimates that the Chilean economy will expand 4.2 percent in 2013, and between 3.75 and 4.75 percent in 2014, slightly less than forecast in September. In 2014, gross fixed capital formation will grow near the rate of this year. As for consumption, the baseline scenario foresees a slight deceleration from 2013. This forecast combines, on one hand, a moderation in private income growth, inflation converging to 3 percent and an exchange rate depreciation that will affect durable consumption. On the other, still optimistic consumer expectations and a strong labor market – although not as tight as this year – that will continue to underpin consumption. This scenario assumes an external impulse similar to September’s. Furthermore, it considers that part of the inventory depletion of recent quarters is an unwanted development, so it will be reversed in the coming months. Taking into account the weaker imports and stronger exports, this scenario also foresees a narrowing of the current account deficit compared with the September estimate: 3.2 percent of GDP this year and 3.7 percent in 2014. The surprise here – a positive one indeed – is that some of the trends that were anticipated in previous reports, have come sooner and stronger. In particular, the maturation of the mining investment cycle, which has been one of the main sources of the higher deficit due to its import component, has allowed copper exports to grow beyond expectations, while capital imports have begun to decline.

It provides lessons on channels of transmission, basic tradeoffs across objectives, and the effectiveness of policy responses.3 The channels of macroeconomic and financial transmission among open and interdependent economies occur through the current account of the balance of payments, the capital account, or both. From the vantage point of the domestic economy, there are three main channels of transmission: the exchange rate; the external demand; and the interest rate or risk-premia channel. The last can be more broadly defined as the financial conditions channel. The intensity of transmission of spillovers will depend on the monetary policy, currency policy and the real and financial openness of the economy being affected by external developments. Other relevant characteristics include the flexibility of labor and product markets; the depth, safety and soundness of the financial system; and the economy’s position as an international creditor or debtor. The Mundell-Fleming framework suggests that a country with a high degree of capital mobility and a flexible currency will be in a favorable position to use monetary policy to attain its internal growth and inflation objectives. When foreign interest rates increase and financial conditions tighten, changes in relative prices brought about by currency fluctuations can help to absorb the external shocks. The positive expenditure switching effect from currency depreciation improves the trade balance and supports demand.
It must be recognised that many individual companies would have neither the resources nor the inclination to pursue these actions on their own. Yet such actions can shape policy, be a force for change, and build reputational capital and credibility with long lasting payoffs for the industry at large. As the broking and insurance community come together today, the questions that are being asked will almost certainly include: What lies ahead for the insurance broking industry? What are the key challenges that will face the industry? How will the landscape continue to change? Where will new opportunities lie? Where will new threats come from? And ultimately, how confident is the industry of its future? I am sure these questions will all be addressed in some way over the course of this Summit. A sampling of what has already been said and published on this subject would indicate that insurance broking is at a crossroad of critical strategic business decisions that will have a significant impact on its future prospects. We often hear this at different periods in time, and each time there is a sense that this will be the defining moment for the industry. I would like to suggest however, that this sense is more palpable in the current environment for a number of reasons that I would like to explore this morning. Let me begin with the Global Financial Crisis. While it is largely associated with a banking crisis, its implications have spread far beyond the banking sector.

Forging ahead Bilaterally, individual ASEAN countries are already increasing their economic links with China and India. But we should complement these individual efforts with combined ones, either several ASEAN countries which are ready proceeding first, or the whole of ASEAN working together as a group. We are negotiating an FTA with China, and targeting to conclude the goods chapter by middle of this year. By 2010, we should have an FTA between China and the original six ASEAN countries. By 2015, all ten ASEAN members will be included. India is also negotiating to establish an FTA with ASEAN by 2011. Japan, which has been a key investor in ASEAN, has also proposed a Japan-ASEAN Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which both sides are now working on. The US, too, has announced the Enterprise ASEAN Initiative, under which it will pursue various agreements with ASEAN countries, taking into account their respective progress in economic liberalization. So we are strengthening our linkages with all our key trading partners. Last October, the Leaders committed to an ASEAN Economic Community by 2020. This is an ambitious vision which will see the creation a single market for goods, services, capital and talent in ASEAN. But 2020 is a long time from now, and we must make progress long before this deadline. Beyond trade in goods, ASEAN needs to step up its integration in other areas. For example, much work remains to be done in forging common investment rules, and in liberalising and integrating the services sectors.