samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the second quarter, sickness absence stood at 6.5 per cent of contractual person-days, although there are substantial occupational and geographical variations. In Rogaland, sickness absence is 1.4 percentage points lower than the national average. If sickness absence in the rest of the country falls as low as in Rogaland, nearly 30 000 additional person-years would be available for productive activity. Reduced sickness absence and reduced outflows into social security schemes – particularly among young people – would result in substantial economic gains. Economic developments The Norwegian economy is in a period of strong expansion after a marked upturn since summer 2003. The upturn followed a period of slow growth since 1998 and a mild slowdown in 2002 and into 2003. Growth in the mainland economy has been high since then, and higher than expected. When the key policy rate was reduced in 2003, demand and output picked up quickly. The upturn was supported by strong productivity growth, reflected in exports, petroleum investment and, after a period, public demand. So far in the cyclical upturn, the mainland economy has grown by an average of just over 4 per cent annually. The upturn is now in a mature phase. Even though output increased rapidly, it took a long time for employment to edge up. The increase in employment was for a long period slower than in the upturns in the 1980s and 1990s. Employment only began to pick up towards the end of 2005, and has since risen sharply.

With a predictable monetary policy, market participants can react to new information in a way that contributes to stabilising developments in output and inflation. Norges Bank’s interest rate forecast satisfies two main criteria. First, the interest rate is set with a view to stabilising inflation close to the target in the medium term. The horizon will depend on disturbances to which the economy is exposed and the effects on the path for inflation and the real economy ahead. Second, the interest rate path provides a reasonable balance between the path for inflation and the path for capacity utilisation. In the assessment, it is taken into account that asset prices, such as property prices, equity prices and the krone exchange rate, can also influence the prospects for output, employment and inflation. The results of this trade-off are presented in the Monetary Policy Report in the form of a chart that presents central projections for the interest rate, inflation and capacity utilisation in the economy. Even though Norges Bank publishes an interest rate forecast, this does not mean that the interest rate will follow this precise path throughout the projection period. Forecasts of inflation, output, the interest rate and other variables are based on an assessment of the current situation and a perception of how the economy functions. Disturbances to the economy may result in changes in the forecasts. Data revisions imply that the current economic situation is not fully known. Our ambition must be to reduce uncertainty with regard to our own response pattern.
But our objective and our assessment are crystal clear: Basel III is for all French banks compatible with normal allocations of profits to reserves in the coming years, after distribution; in no case will it require a dedicated capital increase. II. Taking the digital turn with lucidity We obviously all need to make the digital leap. Digitalisation is shaking up the way we live and consume, opening up a world of possibilities for corporates and customers alike. Worldwide, it clearly represents both an opportunity and a challenge for banks, as well as for supervisors. The ACPR is working actively on these issues. Last year, it published a discussion paper on the implications of AI in the financial sector. And this year, we are working with financial industry participants on the implications of AI algorithms in three topics: AML/CTF, internal models and customer protection. Beyond incumbents, new players are now becoming increasingly important. Fintechs are competing on niche markets. Yet they do not have the capital resources to disrupt incumbent banks and can even be acquired by them. On the contrary, Bigtechs do have the potential to fundamentally redefine financial intermediation: they have strong brand recognition, a worldwide customer base and privileged access to cutting-edge technologies. This new situation is a major challenge for regulators and supervisors. Of course, financial regulation should remain technologically neutral: the basic principle “same activity, same rules” still applies. This is a good thing for the level playing field.

Rather, the SACs support the courts – by providing predictability and uniformity in the interpretation of Shariah rulings that are applicable to Islamic financial business. Unlike a scientific question, a Shariah question can be answered by reference to at least four different schools of thoughts, all of which provide valid answers from a Shariah perspective. Having the SACs as central authorities for providing finality of Shariah rulings – helps the court apply the rulings to the specific circumstances of a particular case with full certainty. This will then inform the final judgment by the courts. A clear process has been set out to facilitate judges, arbitrators and Islamic financial institutions to refer matters which require the ascertainment of Islamic law to the SACs for their ruling or advice. Matters beyond the ambit of the SACs’ authority will be left for the courts to adjudicate. The composition of the SACs, which includes former judges, ensures it functions well within the boundaries of its purview. To promote procedural legitimacy, efforts have been also directed towards ensuring that the reasoning of the SACs are well-documented and accessible to the public. Other than the courts and the SACs, another important institutional arrangement for our path forward will be the financial regulators. In particular, Bank Negara Malaysia and the Securities Commission will continue to play a proactive role in identifying pertinent Shariah issues that need to be clarified for the domestic market.
Figure 13: Crude Oil (Brent) (USD/Barrel) 150  Crude Oil  130  110  90  70  07.08  05.08  03.08  01.08  11.07  09.07  07.07  05.07  03.07  01.07  50  Source: Bloomberg. 10  BIS Review 100/2008  Members of the Press and Dear Guests, Our revised forecasts envisage slightly higher food inflation in 2008 and 2009 compared to the April Inflation Report. Although unprocessed food prices followed a relatively favorable course, processed food inflation is likely to stay at high levels for while, given the elevated course of agricultural commodity prices. Against this backdrop, we have raised the assumptions for food inflation from 13 percent to 14 percent for the year 2008, and from 8 percent to 9 percent for the year 2009. These changes have led to an upward revision in our inflation forecasts by about 30 basis points, for both 2008 and 2009. The projections envisage gradually moderating food inflation throughout the forecast horizon. In this context, assumption for 2010 food inflation is 7 percent. According to the framework drawn so far, we now forecast inflation to be around 10.6 percent at the end of 2008. Under the assumption of a limited tightening towards the end of 2008, our medium term forecasts suggest that, with 70 percent probability, inflation will be between 5.9 and 9.3 percent (mid-point 7.6) at the end of 2009, and between 4 percent and 7.8 percent (mid-point 5.9) at the end of 2010 (Figure 14).

And a strong and stable European economy is probably of greater importance to the world at large than is any particular level for the euro’s exchange rate. So, the euro has arrived. It has already made an impact on financial markets and trade, and that impact is likely to expand over time. We disregard it at our cost. And we should focus on the longer-term implications of the euro rather than dwell too much on its short-term vicissitudes. Finally, in Hong Kong we should perhaps be watching with special interest the evolution of the euro and the way in which the associated macroeconomic challenges within Euroland are tackled, to see what lessons might be put in store for a future generation of central bankers in this region, who might at some stage decide that the time had come to launch a similar initiative. BIS Review 53/1999  4
This assumption can be inferred from the premium that rating agencies attribute to large banks. All else equal, large banks get a better credit rating than small banks. 13 The emergence of very large and highly complex banking institutions therefore undoubtedly poses a new challenge for central banks. It is therefore not surprising that central banks have become more active in the area of financial stability. As a side note, let me also mention that the need for central banks and supervisors to intensify their cooperation – both nationally and internationally – is another consequence of the growing importance of large and complex internationally active financial institutions. 2. Observations about tentative lessons from market turmoil  2.1. Issues regarding transparency  Let me now turn to an attempt to draw some tentative lessons from the current market strains. The first regards transparency. A substantial body of academic research has contributed to making central banks much more transparent in recent years. 14 Transparency has become a hallmark of modern central banking and rightly so. Transparency is an integral part of how an independent and potentially powerful institution like a central bank guarantees  11  Ernst Baltensperger, Philipp Hildebrand, Thomas Jordan, 2007, "The Swiss National Bank's monetary policy concept – an example of a 'principles-based' policy framework", Swiss National Bank Economic Studies No. 3. 12  This argument is closely related to the discussion about the role of monetary policy in the presence of asset price bubbles.

Finally, Iceland’s current account deficit relative to GDP is presently the widest in the world. And while it is forecast to shrink next year, the deficit will remain large and eventually have to be settled. Funding the accumulated deficit will leave the economy highly dependent on investors and creditors in the markets, with precious little scope for manoeuvre. Thus the Icelandic economy is exposed to potential shocks which may prove tough to tackle. The Treasury is in a strong position and has achieved much in recent years. But according to a familiar pattern, the Treasury may be less willing than usual to proceed cautiously at this stage of the  electoral term, and it too is showing signs of easing which may drive demand and stoke the flames of inflation. Such criticism must of course be qualified by the Treasury’s impressive record in paying down its debt in recent years to establish a completely new and favourable balance of interest flows from which Iceland will benefit for a very long time. Recently the Treasury’s deposit in the Central Bank has amounted to around 100 b.kr., earning it handsome interest revenues. The Government has announced that it has agreed to Central Bank proposals for almost doubling the foreign reserves, which will be followed by talks on strengthening the Bank’s capital position. There were no specific reasons for these measures, which are merely aimed to adjust the Central Bank’s position to reflect Iceland’s rapidly expanding economy and financial sector.
Singapore is in a good financial position to provide this guarantee because of the fiscal discipline of successive governments. We are in a strong fiscal position, having accumulated surpluses during good times for exigencies like this. In contemplating making this guarantee, the Government has carefully assessed that it is well within our means, does not impair our ability to meet all government obligations and will not jeopardise Singapore’s financial standing. We are using our reserves to back this guarantee. In the event of a payout, past reserves may be drawn upon. The Minister for Finance has sought and obtained the President’s concurrence to issue the guarantee, as required by the Constitution because of the President’s role in safeguarding our reserves. I should also make clear that this guarantee does not impact at all on MAS’ ability to defend the Singapore dollar. That is because even after giving this guarantee, the government still has ample means, with the full backing of our not insignificant reserves, to safeguard our currency if this should prove necessary. To prevent financial institutions abusing the guarantee by expanding aggressively and taking on excessive risks, MAS has emphasised to financial institutions in Singapore the need to remain prudent in this current operating environment. MAS will continue to supervise financial institutions in Singapore closely. It will take the necessary actions to see to it that  2  BIS Review 127/2008  they operate in a sound manner, and do not put at risk the stability of our financial system or the Government’s reserves.

Carmen’s influence on the profession is also reflected by the fact that she has coined a number of terms that have since become part of economists’ vocabulary. Every student of international macroeconomics learns about ‘twin crises’ – situations in which banking and  Page 2/4  currency crises occur simultaneously. The term goes back to a paper written by Carmen and Graciela Kaminsky, which demonstrated that these two types of crises often go hand-in-hand and reinforce each other. Another well-known term coined in Carmen’s work is ‘debt intolerance’, which refers to the tendency of emerging market governments to default at relatively low levels of debt. Carmen’s research is distinguished by her extensive efforts in collecting and compiling historical datasets. This is best exemplified by her famous book ‘This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly’, co-authored with Ken Rogoff, who by the way gave the Karl Brunner Lecture in 2016. Based on a vast dataset covering several centuries, the book documents the way in which financial crises have repeated themselves over and over again in history, often following similar patterns. Even when the signs of an impending crisis are there for anyone to see, people usually find good reasons why ‘this time is different’. Such a failure to learn from history often turns out to be the breeding ground for the next crisis. With their book, Carmen and Ken accomplished the seemingly impossible task of writing an international bestseller consisting mostly of economic data and analysis.
Writing to Morcom’s mother, he declared, “I know I must put as much energy if not as much interest into my work as if he were alive, because that is what he would like me to do.”  3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  3  To many, Turing is renowned for his “indispensable”3 codebreaking contributions at Bletchley Park during the Second World War.4 The advances Turing made in cryptanalysis then – including co-inventing the Bombe computer for solving ciphers and applying statistical techniques to speed up rates of decryption – were pivotal in cracking the hitherto unbreakable German Enigma code. Turing’s work gave the Allies a crucial advantage in the battle for the Atlantic and is widely credited with hastening the end of the war by at least two years, potentially saving millions of lives in the process. That alone would be more than enough for one lifetime, but Turing’s contributions range far more broadly than those that have been rightly celebrated in print and on screen. One of Turing’s lesser-known interests was biology. In later life, Turing pioneered morphogenesis by applying his knowledge of mathematics and computer science to understand how plants and microorganisms develop their shapes and patterns. Turing used computers to simulate the results of hypothetical chemical reactions to develop truly original insights in this field.

The table taken from his seminal paper On Computable Numbers in the foreground is a succinct representation of a Turing Machine, and the ticker tape records Turing’s birth date in binary code. In the background are images of the ACE pilot machine and a section from the technical drawings of the Bombe. The portrait is by Elliott and Fry, and the quote is from an interview published in The Times, dated 11 June 1949. ******** The characters on our banknotes celebrate those who have advanced British thought, spurred innovation, shown exceptional leadership, shaped this diverse society and forged our common values. Alan Turing will join Winston Churchill on the £ note and Jane Austen on the £ and JMW Turner who will make his appearance on the new £ next year. Although we look to history when we chose a new character, Turing’s work inspires us to look to the future and imagine what is still to come as a result of his genius. If anyone can see the future, it’s the next speaker. It is my pleasure to welcome Demis Hassabis – artificial intelligence researcher, neuroscientist, video game designer, chess champion, co-founder of DeepMind and one of the 225,000 who submitted a recommendation to this process – to celebrate Turing’s past contributions to science and venture where they might take us tomorrow. 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  6
The total non-government sector deposits (including the demand deposits) are planned to increase by Denar 5,139 million or by 13.6% in 2001. The deposits growth should result from the increased confidence of the economic agents in the banking system, as a result of: •  Stable macroeconomic environment  •  Increased income of the economic agents resulting from the projected acceleration of the economic activity  •  Initiation of bond repayment process of so-called “old foreign exchange savings”  •  Modification in the legal framework regarding the operations of the Insurance Deposit Fund, which has been transformed into a state fund. Moreover, the amount of the insured deposit, and the indemnfication percentage in case of risky event have been increased, as well  •  Increased presence of foreign investors in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia. Analyzed by currency denomination, in 2001, Denar and foreign currency deposits are projected to increase by Denar 3,139 million, or by 12.0%, and by Denar 2,000 million, or 17.5%, respectively. Namely, following its introduction in the first half of 2002, the Euro will replace the currencies of the EMU member countries. This will result in enhanced Euro conversion of the households' foreign currency deposits currently denominated in these currencies and not deposited in the banking system. Hence, part of the converted savings are expected to remain within the banking system, increasing the foreign currency deposits.

In 2000, relative price stability was achieved and the inflation rate on annual basis (December 2000 / December 1999), measured through the retail prices index equals 10.8%. Measured through the costs of living index, as agreed with the IMF arrangement, the inflation in 2000 equaled 6.1%. In 2000, compared to the previous several years, the inflation is higher, however it should be underlined that the reason for that is not the monetary policy, but the impact of the non-monetary factors. These factors are the following: •  one-time effect of the introduction of the value-added tax on prices;  •  increase in the price of oil on the world markets, accompanied with the appreciation of the US Dollar;  •  increase in the price of electricity and maintaining higher tariff for calculation of the price of the electricity;  •  increase in the prices of particular services which are under direct control of the government  However, it is crucial that the potential fundamental generators of inflation such as the monetary policy, the fiscal policy, the exchange rate and the wages remained under control and coordination. Therefore, the Central Bank considers that the impact of the non-monetary factors that gave rise to the inflation in 2000 are of temporary character and that in 2001 the inflation will get back to the level from the previous several years.
The recent developments of inflation have reflected the statistical impact of the comparison to a relatively low prices base in 2009, the more full transmission of exchange rate depreciation on consumer prices and the administrative increase of energy, since January 2010. The later factor provided an effect of about 0.5 percentage points on inflation level, being the main reason of exceeding the level of 4%. On the other side, the increasing tendency of food goods inflation is owed to the global conjuncture of goods prices, which is revealing a gradual monthly increase since the half of 2009. Our analysis recommends that the increasing trend of inflation owes mainly to supplying factors, which are estimated to manifest an uneven nature and a short-term action in time. The Bank of Albania expected these developments, being factorised on our projections regarding inflation and communicated timely and in terms of transparency to the public. In medium term period, the growth under potential of the Albanian economy owing to the slowdown of the domestic and external demand, shall establish an environment of low inflationary pressures, which are expected to balance the pressures deriving from the supply direction. This assessment is also supported by the sustained developments and at low historic rates of the long-term component of non-tradable goods inflation, as the most directed transmission of inflationary pressures generated from the internal demand in economy. The rates of both key inflation and of the non-tradable goods in February pointed to 1.1 and 2.3%, respectively.

Throughout the discussions on the current and expected economic developments, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania concluded that the inflationary pressures balance in medium term horizon is in line with the Bank of Albania inflation target, notwithstanding the latest tendencies of consumer prices’ inflation. The assessments regarding the demand slowdown and the increase of negative production gap, the more controlled development of exchange rate and, the equilibrated expectations of economic agents about inflation, are  2  BIS Review 50/2010  factors which shall condition the development of inflation within the target of the Bank of Albania. At the conclusion of discussions, the Supervisory Council decided to leave the key interest rate unchanged, at 5.25 percent. This decision guarantees the appropriate monetary conditions on the preservation of the medium term inflation target. Bank of Albania, regarding the future, remains ready to operate in line with the real and expected performance of the economic indicators. In particular, its decision shall factorise the maintaining of inflationary expectations being anchored around the objective of the Bank of Albania regarding inflation, stability of financial system at home, in terms of maintaining and further consolidating the macroeconomic balances. In this view, Bank of Albania assesses that the recent correcting tendencies of the balance of payment indicators are encouraging developments for the long-terms sustainability of the country financial indicators.