samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
First, and most obviously, the need to pay for constant military protection for the Normandy estates created what modern-day macroeconomists would think of as an enormous structural deficit. If John had let his expulsion from the continent be the end of the matter this financial burden would have extinguished itself. But he did not. His folly was a series of vain attempts to re-conquer Normandy, efforts which finally ended on the eve of Magna Carta. 2 Second, the monarchic finances had taken a colossal hit in 1193 because of the need to fund a gigantic public sector bailout. Richard I had managed to get himself caught in Germany on his way back from the Holy Land and was held to ransom for £ in silver. Being “Too Big To Jail”, the equivalent of two to three times annual crown income was needed to bail him out. In comparison, the government’s peak cash support to UK banks in 2007–2010 amounted to a trifling one-quarter of annual UK government revenues. 3 Third, the need to raise additional cash for the public finances was made much more problematic by the strain of inflation, which accelerated in the early years of the 13th century. 4 The problem was that a large proportion of regular crown income came in the form of “farms”, which were fixed rental payments for leases to use the King’s land for agriculture. These farms were fixed by custom in nominal terms, whereas the King’s expenditures were not. The King’s finances were unhedged.

And once we cut through the legend, what is its significance for economic governance today? The revisionist interpretation of Magna Carta as a timeless statement of natural rights and liberties became imprinted onto the minds of the English-speaking world only in the 17th century. In large part, this was due to the work of Edward Coke. As well as being an enormously influential jurist, Coke was also the author of popular English legal textbooks that exported his views around the world. Coke resurrected the long-forgotten Magna Carta from 400 years of obscurity by appealing to its spirit in order to resist the absolutist tendencies of the Stuart Kings James I and his son Charles I – themselves inspired by the continental European model of monarchic divine-right. The Charter, Coke argued, could trace its lineage from an ancient constitution that harked back not just to the time of pre-Norman King Edward the Confessor, but to King Arthur himself (! ): an ancient constitution that was now being imperilled – and with it the Englishman’s rightful way of life – by the tyrannical behaviour of the Stuarts. 16  John had restored himself to favour from excommunication and placed himself under the protection of Innocent by pronouncing himself a papal vassal, and England a papal fief, in 1213 and subsequently by “taking the cross” in March 1215 – i.e., declaring himself a crusader.
A central bank cannot do anything about the increases in the cost of living, since it does not produce goods and services. That is why John Exter, the founder Governor of the Central Bank, remarked in his very first press interview that “…the Bank does not itself produce goods and services. It will facilitate it by creating right monetary conditions ” Implicit in these “right monetary conditions” is the need for attaining economic and price stability in its totality. Inflation is a much wider phenomenon than the cost of living. It entails the absence of stability in the macro economy leading to an increase in all the prices at the same time. A consumer price index measures the price impact on a consumption basket consisting of only consumer goods. In contrast, inflation occurs when the prices of all goods, consumption, intermediate, investment and inputs, rise at the same time. It elevates the general price level to a higher level, including those of the consumer goods. The above misunderstanding may lead to the pitfall of a central banker trying to stabilize the value of a cost of living index through artificial means. It can be attained by fixing price ceilings or granting price subsidies. But, it does not cure the malady of generally rising prices generated by rising nominal aggregate demand over the real aggregate supply. A subsidy could ease the burden on the cost of living of a given consumer or a group of consumers.

In this context, I find the recent initiative of the European Banking Federation for a self-imposed calendar for reducing the level of such fees extremely promising. 4  BIS Review 91/2001  Steps are also being taken in the field of consumer protection legislation. The aim of the recently launched revision of the Consumer Credit Directive is to promote transparency and to ensure that cross-border credit can flow in harmonised conditions for both consumers and lenders. Also, a report on the regulation of e-commerce in financial services has just been launched by the Commission. It draws attention to the problems that arise from the interplay between different legal systems and makes proposals to overcome them. At the supervisory level, the Economic and Financial Committee has stressed the need to work on the convergence of diverging national supervisory practices. The main motivation is to enhance the efficiency of the national supervisory authorities involved in monitoring cross-border financial institutions and thereby to improve financial stability. This is also linked to the new framework for capital adequacy rules being developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision that will significantly increase the scope for supervisory discretion, leaving broad room for diverging implementation across Member States. Thus, demand for supervisory convergence is going to increase. To the extent that this is accomplished, the costs of banks with multi-country operations will also become lower.
The Bank of Albania remains heedful to future developments and new information, ready to respond in the appropriate time and extent in order to comply with its legal mission. At the conclusion of discussions, the Supervisory Council decided to decrease the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage point, at 4.0%. This decision aims to establish the appropriate monetary conditions to comply with the inflation target in the medium run. The monetary policy, also, provides the necessary support to simulate the aggregate demand. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

As discussed in this report, a depreciation of the króna coinciding with a fall in asset prices – possibly originating in tighter global financial conditions – could amplify the forecast contraction. The necessary reduction of pressures in the economy will squeeze businesses and households, many of which are vulnerable due to heavy debt. They could withstand a short-lived reversal, but a lasting contraction would be difficult to weather. In late autumn 2005, after a surge in borrowing by Icelandic banks in international bond markets, investors revised their risk assessments of the banks. CDS spreads and secondary market yields on their issues increased. The banks deferred further borrowing in the European bond markets, which had been their main source of funding. Foreign analysts and agencies published negative reports about the banks and the state of the Icelandic economy. The climate turned most adverse at the end of February 2006 after Fitch Ratings changed Iceland’s sovereign outlook from stable to negative, claiming inter alia that the banks’ tight financing could have implications for the Treasury. This situation and its aftermath squeezed the banks for a while, forcing them to respond firmly to the uncomfortable position that had arisen. They made efforts to explain the structure and organisation of the Icelandic banks. The banks adjusted certain aspects of their operations and cross-ownership in response to relevant criticisms, and refuted what was less relevant with both communication and successful business performance. Temporarily they needed to look beyond their traditional markets for funding, with issuance in the US and Japan.
For example, a country’s long-term growth is determined by developments in the quantity of labour and real capital and technological progress. The best that monetary policy can do is, as I have already observed, to indirectly contribute to favourable economic developments by ensuring that inflation is kept low and stable and that financial stability is good. Although it might be tempting, it is therefore meaningless – and often counter-productive or even damaging – to give the central bank the task of "creating" growth or employment. If one tries to affect growth and employment by systematically keeping interest rates low and increasing liquidity in the economy, or by allowing public sector projects to be financed directly by the central bank, the profits will be only short term. Inflation will rise in a way that will sooner or later become difficult to control – the nominal anchor will loosen – while developments in the real economy risk being poorer than they would have been otherwise. I believe that it is correct to claim that a lack of insight and excessive  5  See, for instance, Bernanke, B.S., (2006), ”The Benefits of Price Stability”, Remarks at The Center for Economic Policy Studies and on the occasion of the 75th Anniversary of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, February 24. 6  See, for instance, Bernanke, B.S., (2004), “The Great Moderation”, Remarks at the Meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, DC, February 20.

Should this trend continue, Thailand will not be able to maintain its competitiveness and output level. Fortunately, many technological advancements available at much lower costs today hold huge promises for raising productivity. Cloud computing, robotics and automation have allowed businesses to save significant costs. Big data, artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities can now offer insights that enable more targeted services. I urge you all to seize this opportunity and leverage on new technologies to improve the productivity of your firms, your industries, and eventually our country. Second, on immunity: for growth to be sustainable we must have sufficient immunity to withstand unexpected shocks. We are living in a time of great changes, where outcomes can be sudden, unpredictable, and volatile, bringing 3  with them new forms of risks. Not only will firms face risks related to strategy, finance, and operation, but they will also face risks associated with driving digital transformations. Managing the transformation process in the digital environment requires fostering an organizational culture that is agile and nimble—to gain flexibility and speed that drives productivity and innovation. But, at the same time, a strong culture on risk management must also be instilled to safeguard firms’ resilience. As industries increasingly rely on data and data-driven technologies, cyber security must be considered a top priority. Globally, the number of threat incidents have been rising, with increased frequency, sophistication and scale of their impacts.
But new holders of such risk may not have the same understandings of what the risks consist of, as those who generate them. And accordingly they may behave in unexpected ways when shocks arise. For example in banking, confidence in the liquidity of the system and expected behaviour is underpinned by the presumption that, in the absence of a credit event, obligations will be honoured at a known time and date. This would typically beon the expiry of a loan contract - the crystallising event if you like. In general insurance on the other hand, the industry is used to handling crystallising events differently. Rather than acting as the trigger for immediate payment of due amounts, it may instead lead to discussion - even dispute - the results of which will determine how much is eventually paid and when. So risk transfer contracts straddling the two areas may engender expectations that in practice may harbour surprises; with unexpected outcomes and adverse behaviour. 8. Implications of the new environment: new types of financial player  A key ingredient of life in today’s financial world of course is the new players, or the increased significance of previously smaller players - encouraged as they have been by liberalisation and new risk transfer techniques. Firstly there is the advent of globally active Large Complex Financial Institutions - LCFIs. These create a particular challenge for public policy. They are built on highly sophisticated understandings of the global market place. Their deployment of intellectual capital has been dramatic.

We will be able to take a deeper insight into the economic growth slowdown after detailed GDP statistics are released. However, the 2018 data released in April and preliminary Q1 2019 estimates allow us to update our GDP forecast for this year. In particular, the revision is associated with lower export growth rates and a tempered outlook for growth in the global 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  economy and external demand. We have left the forecast for consumer and investment demand unchanged in view of the expected rise in public expenses in the second half of the year. As a result, we have updated the 2019 economic growth forecast from 1.2-1.7% to 1-1.5%. Third. Proinflationary risks have declined over a one-year horizon. First, we no longer expect any deferred effects of the VAT hike. Second, the US Fed consistently eased it rhetoric since the year start amid the expected slowdown of global economic growth. All else being equal, this constrains the risks of considerable capital outflow from emerging markets. In March-April, we noticed that the risks of accelerated growth in prices of certain food products diminished. Overall, they remain moderate, though current food inflation was somewhat higher in May than in the previous three months, seasonally adjusted. Moving forward, we expect that record crop areas, early spring, and overall favourable weather will bring a good harvest of vegetables, grains and other crops. Domestic and global grain prices have been down since the beginning of the year. This contains proinflationary risks for food products.
Forward guidance on the path is today less important than commitment on our end objective First, in the current normalization phase, there is much less need and space for detailed forward guidance: we are no longer at the effective lower bound and  Page 5 sur 8 are coming back to our more normal reaction function—all the more so in the current uncertain environment. Accordingly, in our ECB July statement President Christine Lagarde emphasized optionality dependent on economic data, and taking decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. More importantly still, we strongly reiterated our commitment to our end objective of bringing inflation back to 2% in the medium-term, i.e. 2024 in our present forecasts. The more open we are about the path, the more committed we must be about the destination of the journey. Don’t get me wrong: market expectations of future policy rates remain a key driver of long-term interest rates, which are what matters most for investment and spending decisions. But forward-guidance—at least in the form of a commitment to an unconditional and/or prolonged path for the policy rate—is today an unadvisable way of steering market expectations. If you go to the hospital, it is certainly unpleasant not knowing how long you will stay there. But you certainly do not want a doctor who decides to keep you 7 days regardless of how your health evolves. Without question, you would rather have a firm commitment that he will cure you of your ailment! II.B.

In such cases, we could not avoid reacting by surprising markets rather than being behind the curve. This is what a sound risk-management approach calls for: weighting seriously the long-term risks to price stability in the case of persistently higher inflation. xi We rightly had to give priority to risk management on inflation, over expectations management on interest rates. It is paramount, nevertheless, that financial markets and economic actors understand our reaction function in order to avoid unwarranted volatility: if inflation—and especially core inflation—is higher than what we expected, we are likely to raise rates more quickly, although never following a mechanical rule. And we should preserve some short-term signaling—or guidance—in our new “meeting-by- meeting” approach: this is somewhat new territory for us, where as much as possible (i) guidance if any should come from explicit statements from the top rather than from unsourced leaks, (ii) multiple and somewhat disorderly expressions of personal wishes should be more restrained, and the silent period should obviously be respected. II.D. R* remains useful to delineate normalization and tightening To be sure, R* is unobservable and its estimation remains surrounded by uncertainty. But I believe it remains a helpful concept in the current normalization. Page 7 sur 8 According to me, for the euro area, until we are around R*, the neutral rate— which possibly lies between 1 and 2% in nominal terms—the road ahead is clear and we can go in a sustained and determined way, including through some guidance.
They include rising petrol prices, ruble depreciation on the back of both capital outflow from emerging markets and a tougher geopolitical environment, and the decision to raise VAT. Our monetary policy was aimed at anticipating and preventing these risks. Our key rate influences future rather than current inflation. As a result, we raised the key rate by 0.5 percentage points. This was sufficient for inflation to deviate slightly from the target at the lower bound of our forecast and to promptly resume its movement towards the target. Moreover, it was the prompt response that allowed us to avoid a significant rise in the key rate. This showed, in particular, that our monetary policy tools have the effect we planned to achieve, address challenges, and allow us preserve a stable environment that favours economic development. The May and April data suggest that monthly price growth (seasonally adjusted) across all core groups of goods and services has already declined to our target level. Annual inflation is set to return to target in the first half of 2020. Now that the proinflationary factors we needed to address have largely faded, we believe it is possible to resume rate cuts in the second or third quarter. Financial stability As you know, both internal and external risks may emerge. One of the tools the Central Bank has at its disposal to control external risks to financial stability is foreign currency reserves.

Currently, it is coming into effect and should raise consumer protection. For the public, this will mean a simpler short procedure of dispute settlement with financial organisations. We realise that customers are often weak in disputes with financial organisations, but we are offering them protection. We continue to develop financial literacy programmes, which has also raised many questions. The regulator will not be able to effectively protect customers without providing information and education to the public. We are working together with the Ministry of Education. The financial literacy module has been included in the school curriculum (29,000 schools or roughly 70% of all secondary schools already have this module in their curriculum). We conduct online and offline workshops and lectures for the public, and we also offer special programmes for orphans and elderly people. We post advertising materials, including on public transport. Our regional branches are making a large contribution, which we find extremely important. I would like to conclude by saying a few words about financial inclusion. Many deputies are concerned about this issue and raise it at almost every parliamentary group meeting, because voters are concerned about it. The overall level of financial inclusion in the country is adequate and new technologies are developing faster in Russia than in many other countries. Certainly, they offer new opportunities to households and businesses. This is, certainly, an average indicator typical of big cities. In some regions, where there are many remote and thinly populated towns and rural areas, financial inclusion is low.
Villy Bergström: The role of the Riksbank in Swedish society  Speech by Mr Villy Bergström, Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, at Fristående Sparbankers Förbundsstömma, held in Stenungssund, on 22 May 2000. *  *  *  In my speech today I would like to concentrate on the role of the Riksbank in Swedish society. I am going to begin by trying to clarify the sometimes exaggerated idea about the meaning of the Riksbank having an independent position in relation to our democratically elected representatives. Later in my speech, I will take up issues relating to the Riksbank’s role in reducing the risk for financial crises and the important function of the bank system. The duties of the Riksbank The Riksbank is an authority subject to the Riksdag. The areas of responsibility that have been delegated to us in one way or another involve ensuring that our money plays its part well in society. In order for a modern economy to function efficiently, there must be access to money that is accepted by everyone as a means of payment. It must also be possible to make payments for the enormous flows of goods and services in a developed economy in a secure and efficient way. Last but not least, it is important that the country’s currency functions as a store of value, a demand that is met if inflation is low and predictable. Stable prices reduce uncertainty when agreements about future payments are to be concluded, for instance pay agreements.

As this meeting has been arranged by the National Association of Independent Savings Banks, I think it is appropriate to highlight some development tendencies that entail major challenges for the banks and the Riksbank. Globalisation, deregulation and technical development have changed and will change the conditions for traditional bank activities. The role of the banks has primarily been to act as an intermediary between savers and borrowers and to make available payment services linked to liquid deposit accounts. Characteristic for a traditional bank portfolio is that lending is long or medium-term while the bank’s deposits are quite liquid. This has, of course, meant that the banks have assumed a credit and term risk. Developments in recent decades have meant that competing alternatives have arisen to banks for both lenders and depositors. The base that has made up the foundation for the growth in profits of the banks has therefore tended to shrink. There have, for instance, been increased opportunities for big companies with credit risks that can easily be valued to use the security market to finance their investments. At the same time, households have obtained considerably more alternatives to invest their savings in and during recent years an increasing number of Swedish households have opted to invest their savings in shares and share funds. Deregulated financial markets have also entailed that price fluctuations in various financial assets and also in properties seem to have increased.