samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Pongpen Ruengvirayudh: Challenges in the rotating world Keynote address by Ms Pongpen Ruengvirayudh, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Thomson Reuters FX Awards Ceremony 2013, Bangkok, 27 March 2013. *  *  *  Distinguished guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, 1. It is an honour for me to join the Thomson Reuters 2013 FX Awards Ceremony today. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate the winners of the FX awards this year and to thank all market participants, as well as Thomson Reuters, for your contribution to the development of the Thai foreign exchange market. For the winners of the awards this year, one is reminded that the awards are given not only for the outstanding achievement on business grounds, but also as recognition of the notable efforts in enhancing market efficiency. So a hearty congratulation for a job well done! 2. As you know, much has happened over the past few years, both at the global level and within the Thai economy. The global economy has shown signs of improvements, although in a measured pace, but reactions from the financial markets seem to run ahead of developments on the grounds. For many of us who have seen the global economy and financial markets over many business cycles, such euphoria and exuberance can be expected whenever global risk sentiments improve and investment strategy shifts toward more risk- taking. Today, a new theme or the so-called “The Great Rotation”, has taken the center stage.

However, such turnaround may lead to new concerns and challenges going forward. Today’s event thus provides an opportune occasion for us to deliberate and exchange views on this topical issue. 3. Although latest economic data point to stronger growth momentum and smaller tail risks, uncertainty and short-term threats still remain. For example, the situation in Europe can easily come back to take centre stage thus providing a reality check and a pointed reminder that structural problems take time to resolve. Besides, anti-austerity pressure could delay ongoing reform efforts. This may, from time to time, raise uncertainty and spark volatility in the market. Meanwhile, improving economic outlook in the US needs to be tempered with reality of the fiscal drag and the near-term risk from spending cuts which can come back to hit market sentiment. Thus, we should proceed with care since the market has somewhat overly priced in the global recovery story. 4. The challenges from the great rotation can be viewed in two dimensions. First, risk preference has shifted from safety to riskier assets with the improved global sentiment. Particularly, global stock markets have rallied far beyond the modest global recovery. This can be seen in the MSCI World Index which surged by almost 25% during the last 9 months while global growth remains at low level. 5. Rallies in stock prices on the back of over optimistic sentiment may sow the seeds of potential bubble.
The drop in the real exchange rate by 45% from the pre-crisis peak played a role in this adjustment, although it overshot, initially causing severe side effects because of the large stock of foreign-denominated debt owed by resident borrowers without any natural hedging in the form of foreign income or assets. As a result, strong emphasis was placed on halting the collapse of the króna. This was achieved in H2/2009. Closing loopholes for capital outflows and adopting measures that allowed the capital controls to work as intended made a big difference in this regard. The economic recovery began once the exchange rate had been stabilised and the inevitable adjustment of domestic demand to a new economic reality was more or less complete. The economy gained resilience through the underlying strength of the sectors that had not been part of the bubble economy — conventional export sectors in particular. Firms in the tradable sector took advantage of the low real exchange rate. The economic upswing began in Q2/2010, when GDP began to grow once again. GDP has grown more or less without interruption since, and in terms of GDP per capita this is Iceland’s longest economic upswing since the end of World War 2  II. Early on, growth was weak in comparison with previous upswings, as it was driven mainly by closing the slack in the economy, as investment was relatively weak at the outset. That changed in 2015, when tourism began to grow at an unprecedented pace, terms of trade improved, and investment picked up.

The experience of the financial crisis has taught us that this is important. In closing, I would like to thank the Supervisory Board and the Monetary Policy Committee for their collaboration, and I wish to thank the Central Bank’s many colleagues and collaborators for their cooperation – not least the Prime Minister’s Office, the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs, and the Financial Supervisory Authority. I would also like to thank the financial institutions with which the Bank interacts for their cooperation. Furthermore, I would like to thank the Parliament of Iceland, particularly the Economics and Commerce Committee, for their collaboration. And last but certainly not least, I want to thank the staff of the Central Bank for their tirelessness, dedication, and outstanding work in the past ten years. And at this turning point, I would like to extend my sincerest thanks to all of you who have come here today and have attended the Bank’s annual meetings in the past. Central banks can be a force for change, but history and tradition are also strong, and they contribute to strength and steadfastness in the work they do at any given time. It means a great deal to me that here today are two former Governors and other former Central Bank employees have attended the Annual Meeting every year during my term as Governor. Thank you for that. 8
However, for reasons not very clear, this assistance was sought from USA and not from the UK, the traditional advisor of the country. Thus, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was approached by the then Minister of Finance, J. R. Jayawardene, to obtain the services of a suitable consultant. The Bank, in turn, informed the government that it could not release its best consultant, namely, David L Gosse, for this purpose, because he had been occupied in some other assignment at that time. Gosse was considered the ideal expert for the job, because he already possessed the required experience for the job at hand by pioneering the work relating to the establishment of the Central Bank of the Philippines. However, Gosse was kind enough to recommend his assistant, John Exter, for the job. Hence, Exter was not the first choice, but an engagement done by default. Yet, the wisdom, erudition and professionalism shown by Exter in both making the recommendations and subsequent running of the Bank, is a testimony that he was the correct choice for the job at hand. John Exter had an illustrious academic as well as professional career. After graduating from the College of Wooster, he completed post graduate work at both the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and Harvard University. After a brief stint at MIT during World War II, he joined the Federal Reserve System as an economist. Then, in 1948, he was on release to serve the Government of the Philippines as advisor to its Secretary of Finance.

A growing body of research is also dedicated to other aspects of nature-related risks through case studies, such as the work conducted by DNB on water  Page 10 sur 13 stress,xii or studies at the Banque de France to focus on transition risks in the fields of imported deforestation and domestic land use. But obviously, we still have to progress on macroeconomics and macrofinance of biodiversity. C. What we have to do as central banks and supervisors First of all, we must remain humble in the face of the scale of the task. Despite our determined commitment, nothing will replace government action, be it at the national, European, or hopefully international level. Europe has already set ambitious targets in the context of its Green Deal (30% of land and seas turned into protected areas, 50% reduction in the use of pesticides, etc. ), and so has France. I can only wish for a fruitful outcome for the forthcoming COP15 on Biodiversity in Montreal. However, rest assured that we will do everything in our power – and within our mandate – to manage biodiversity and nature-related risks. Our scope of action can be summed up in three “C”:   Cooperate through the NGFS. Our common child – Banque de France  and DNB being among the founding fathers – will be 5 years old in December. It has proven incredibly successful in raising awareness, building knowledge and spreading ideas for action among central banks and supervisors, and I have great confidence in Ravi Menon’s leadership.
M R Pridiyathorn Devakula: The changing value of Thai society Keynote speech by Mr M R Pridiyathorn Devakula, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the ‘Horizon’s Night’, Bangkok, 19 May 2006. *  *  *  Mr. President, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentleman, On the occasion of the 21st anniversary of the Graduate School of Business of Assumption University, I would like to express my warmest congratulations to the Assumption University for the long years of services in producing many qualified graduates for the country, thus contributing to our continued development in this very competitive global environment. When Brother Bancha invited me to deliver an address on any subject I see fit, I had to ponder long and hard on what would be an appropriate topic for the celebration of the Business School. Your organizing committee proposed that I talk about my concern on the recent development in the Thai society that I have voiced publicly during the New Year, and that is on the Changing Value of the Thai society. I am not sure whether the subject will suit tonight’s celebration, but I promise that I will do my best not to spoil your festive mood. As our economy grows, we have become influenced more and more by Western values and ways of thinking. This has inevitably led to various changes in our behaviour and day-to-day life. One such example is the recent rapid expansion in credit card businesses which could be potentially harmful to the Thai society, if not supervised appropriately.

Finally, regarding fiscal policy, it is assumed that the consistent framework outlined in the Medium Term Program (MTP) will be implemented and further enhanced by institutional and structural measures. In other words, it is assumed that no public price/tax adjustments would  14  BIS Review 31/2010  be made to lead to unpredictable volatilities in inflation and administered prices would be set in line with inflation targets over the next three years. Moreover, it is assumed that the fiscal stance will remain expansionary – but less so than in 2009 – throughout 2010, and subsequently fiscal tightening would be gradually adopted starting from 2011. In this respect, it is envisaged that the rising debt-to-GDP ratios would reverse their course steadily starting from 2011, and hence the risk premium would not display any significant changes throughout the forecast horizon. Distinguished Guests and Members of the Press, Against this background, assuming policy rates are kept constant for a long period followed by limited rises thereafter, with policy rates staying at single digits throughout the three-year forecast horizon, the medium-term forecasts suggest that, with 70 percent probability, inflation will be between 5.5 and 8.3 percent with a mid-point of 6.9 percent at end-2010; and between 3.4 and 7.0 percent with a mid-point of 5.2 percent by the end of 2011. Furthermore, inflation is expected to decline to 4.9 percent by the end of 2012 (Figure 34).
The fall in prices for imported consumer goods was unexpectedly sharp. It is uncertain whether this price fall was due to abnormal seasonal patterns or a decline in underlying inflation. The fall in prices may be related to an unusually warm winter, which has made it more difficult to sell winter clothing and sports equipment at ordinary prices. On the other hand, there are indications that prices for imported consumer goods in foreign currency may have fallen somewhat more than previously assumed. The wide variations in prices for some imported consumer goods, especially clothing and footwear, may lead to wide monthly variations in consumer price figures. Excluding changes in prices for clothing and footwear, the year-on-year rise in the CPI-ATE in March was 1.2 per cent, down from 1.3 per cent in February. Changes in indirect taxes, and particularly in VAT rates, have made it more difficult to interpret the price figures for the beginning of the year. The low level of inflation may be partly due to a lag in price adjustments following the indirect tax changes. Among the companies in our regional network, the share expecting a sharper rise in selling prices in the coming year is larger than the share expecting a slower rise in prices. TNS Gallup’s business sentiment survey conveys a more neutral impression. Nevertheless, both surveys indicate expectations of a sharper rise in prices in the service sector. The other Nordic countries have also experienced falling inflation.

Bottlenecks may arise in some sectors of the economy, and the sharp rise in property prices and borrowing may persist for a longer period. This could be a source of instability in demand, output and inflation in the somewhat longer run. This implies, in isolation, a higher interest rate. At the same time, the current rate of inflation is low, and there are prospects of low inflation for a period ahead. The objective of bringing inflation back to the target of 2½ per cent and anchoring inflation expectations imply a continued expansionary monetary policy. The monetary policy assessments presented by Norges Bank in March indicated that the interest rate will rise after a period and at a gradual pace. Economic developments since then have been broadly in line with expectations. International key rates are rising, albeit slowly and from a low level. Although a gradual rise in the interest rate seems to provide a good balance between the different objectives, the Executive Board concluded that it is too early to increase the interest rate at this monetary policy meeting. The Executive Board decided yesterday, 20 April, to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. The Executive Board weighed the objective of bringing inflation back to target and stable inflation expectations against the risk that output growth may eventually be too high. BIS Review 27/2005  7
Benoît Cœuré: What yield curves are telling us Speech by Mr Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Financial Times European Financial Forum "Building a New Future for International Financial Services", Dublin, 31 January 2018. * * * Accompanying slides. The US Treasury yield curve flattened considerably last year, reducing the spread between tenyear and two-year US Treasury yields to less than 60 basis points. When Alan Greenspan first referred to a bond market “conundrum” in 2005, the spread was around 80 basis points.1 In the euro area, by contrast, the term spread remained broadly unchanged last year. At face value, a simple reconciling factor of recent international bond price developments is the tightening cycle that has gained traction in the United States. It is well known that a rise in policy rates typically leads to a flattening of the sovereign yield curve as long-term rates tend to increase by less than short-term rates. In my remarks this morning I will try to shed some more light on the potential factors currently affecting long-term rates. I will argue that, in and of itself, policy normalisation in the US cannot fully explain the pronounced flattening of the US Treasury curve.

The fifth focus area is more exploratory and covers emerging payment infrastructures and arrangements including Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). In October 2021, following a public consultation, the FSB announced clear quantitative global targets to address the 4 challenges of cross-border payments - cost, speed, access and transparency across 3 market segments – wholesale, retail and remittances – the majority of which will come into effect in 2027. [8] Work is underway to assess how to measure progress against the targets. And crucially work is underway to enable the targets to be met. To achieve the magnitude of change needed at pace will require collaborative effort. Given the conference is in Athens, I wanted to bring collaboration to life with an example from Greece – the Trireme. This famous ship – the fastest in the ancient world[9] - derives its name from its three tiers of oars, and its success has been attributed to the collaborative efforts of these three tiers working together. This ship and its ethos of teamwork provide a key metaphor for how we can successfully bring about change in how cross-border payments work. In the world of cross-border payments the three key groups are: central banks, industry and public authorities. There is a saying “If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.” We need to go far together to reach the FSB targets on cost, speed, access and transparency.
French banks, for their part, are continuing to display solid fundamentals, thanks to a high level of own funds, which has stabilised at around 15 %i:  In this respect, the main euro area banks have fortunately defied certain – fairly pessimistic – predictions, which forecast that CET1 ratios would have deteriorated significantly by the end of 2020.ii This better than expected resilience among financial institutions, particularly in France, has played a decisive role in determining our economy’s capacity to weather the crisis. Banks already financed three quarters of the European economy, and more than 60 % of the French economy. Fortunately, they have increased their volume of financing since the start of the health crisis, especially in France:  Corporate lending, which was already rising at a rate of around 6 % per year between 2016 and 2019, accelerated markedly in 2020 (+ 13.3 %), especially lending to SMEs (+ 20.3 %), helped by the unrivalled success of the government’s distribution of state-guaranteed loans, which totalled nearly EUR 140 billion at the end of April 2021. Let us also make one thing clear, in the face of the doubts that have been raised, which are completely unfounded: French banks are in no way underprovisioned. The cost of risk is traditionally lower in our country than the European average, and certainly than the level in the US:  And the recent reduction in this cost reflects the improvement in the economic outlook, as well as the efficiency of the public support measures for households and businesses.

It is important to stress this: tiering and the particularly attractive pricing – now up to - 1 % – of our TLTROs more than make up, in 2021, for the annual charge  generated by negative interest rates. The path to profitability is now through the continuing modernisation of financial institutions themselves, but also through the emergence of a genuine “single banking market”. We need to take advantage of the size effect and encourage the formation of pan-European banking groups: we must never give up on the goal of a genuine Banking Union, despite protectionist resistance from “host” countries. This integration also requires efficient methods of crisis management. Europe needs to strengthen its resolution framework, to ensure the effective exit of non-viable banks in Europe, without burdening solid banking systems with additional financing – which would mean adjusting the financing of the SRF (Single Resolution Fund). The impact of low interest rates is different, however, for insurers. The integration of PSRs into own funds has already allowed them to offer sufficiently attractive revaluation rates in a low interest rate environment. It should also give insurers valuable time to rethink their offering and shift it towards longer term, more equity-based products that make better use of savings to strengthen our economy. Innovation will be at the heart of the transformation that financial institutions need to make over the next decade. Europe is clearly losing momentum here, just as the crisis is accelerating the adoption of digital technologies, with Bigtechs poised potentially to redefine financial intermediation.
Developments in price level and inflation with a price level target and inflation target Price level  114  Price level target Price level with price level target  114  114  Price level  114  Price level target Price level with inflation target  112  112  112  110  110  110  110  108  108  108  108  106  106  106  106  104  104  104  104  102  102  102  102  100  100  4  4  3  3  3  3  2  2  2  2  1  1  112  100  0  12  24  36  48  60  Inflation  4  1  0  Inflation target Inflation with price level target 0  12  24  36  48  60  0  0  0  12  24  36  48  60  Inflation  100  4  1 Inflation target Inflation with inflation target 0  12  24  36  48  60  0  Note. Constructed example. Vertical axis measures index value (price level) and per cent (inflation). Horizontal axis measures number of months. Source: Andersson, B. and C. A. Claussen (2017), “Alternatives to inflation targeting”, Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review, 2017:1  Figure 8.

We believe that the launch of the bulletin will help to raise product awareness and improve price transparency, thereby helping to promote the development of the retail bond market in Hong Kong. The bulletin is developed by the Central Moneymarkets Unit of the HKMA. We are delighted to have eight major banks, which are present here today, to be the price providers. Thanks to their support, indicative bid/offer prices of over 200 bonds of different currencies issued by both public and private sector entities will be available on bulletin. Investors may access the bulletin later today for bond information. The website address is https://www.cmu.org.hk. The bulletin also provides direct hyperlinks to the price providers’ websites to facilitate investors to approach the price providers for trading. Relevant transaction charges imposed by individual price providers are also posted on the bulletin. Retail investors can easily gain access to, and conclude trades with, the price providers in a convenient, secure and efficient manner. We are thankful to banks and potential users for their valuable comments during the development of the bulletin. We will monitor the usage and feedback to gauge whether there is scope for future expansion. We would welcome feedback from users and would endeavour to improve the bulletin on a continuous basis. Other banks interested to join as price providers are welcome to approach the HKMA for further information.