samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Payment of interest on reserves allows us to control short-term rates with even a large amount of excess reserves outstanding. In addition, we can drain excess reserves in several ways. We have developed term deposit accounts and the ability to conduct reverse repurchase operations with a large number of counterparties that would allow us to drain a large volume of reserves. Also, when the time is right, the Fed can always sell assets. Such asset sales would lead to a rise in longer-term rates and this would have a contractionary effect on the demand for credit. I am very mindful of concerns here and abroad that balance sheet expansion could be interpreted as a policy of monetizing the federal debt. However, I regard this view to be fundamentally mistaken. It misses the point of what would be motivating the Federal Reserve. The FOMC would only engage in large-scale asset purchases in order to push the economy more rapidly toward the dual mandate goals of full employment and price stability. Once these goals were accomplished, there would be no basis for further purchases regardless of the government’s fiscal position because additional purchases would not be consistent with this mandate. The second constraint is that further balance sheet expansion would increase the Federal Reserve’s interest rate risk by raising the maturity mismatch between its assets and liabilities. Recall that the bulk of the Fed’s liabilities are overnight reserves and the bulk of its assets are longer-term Treasuries, agency and agency MBS securities.

In addition, lower long-term rates would reduce the cost of capital for businesses, thereby fostering higher levels of capital spending for any given economic outlook. In considering the limits to balance sheet expansion, there are two constraints – one major and one more minor. The first constraint is the risk that the balance sheet expansion might cause inflation expectations to become unanchored, leading to higher risk premia. This risk is presumably greater in a period in which budget deficits are high, as they are today. 6  BIS Review 127/2010  If exit concerns were to rise as purchases increased, then a rise in inflation risk premia would offset at least some of the expected fall in interest rates. In contrast, the more credible the ultimate exit strategy, the less likely it is that inflation risk premia would go up and the more effective purchases would be in lowering long-term rates. Also, the more credible the ultimate exit plan, the more confident investors would be about the Fed’s willingness to do what is needed to accomplish its objectives. This is important because it would help stabilize longerrun inflation expectations at levels consistent with the dual mandate. The FOMC should be able to assure investors that it has both the means and the will to exit when – but not before – the time is right. That is because the Federal Reserve has the tools to control financial conditions and credit creation even with an expanded balance sheet.
The study also revealed bias towards highlighting the benefits of a product in explanation given by sales agents, while risks and costs were not adequately explained. The Bank is concerned with these findings as they undermined informed decision and judgements by consumers. We shall act on this findings. Insights drawn from the study will serve as input to the Bank’s comprehensive planned review of the mandatory disclosure regime, next year. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The Bank will also work with key stakeholders including industry’s representatives to undertake targeted financial education strategies to elevate public awareness on the importance of reading and understanding product disclosure materials and financial agreements. Offer customised solutions that meet the needs of consumers It is no great secret that truly great businesses have one thing in common; they cultivate customer trust, every step of the way. Cultivating trust requires a systematic process, first, traditional distribution models of products and services must adapt with targeted solutions that meet individual needs and risk appetites. Second, marketing strategies must adopt a paradigm shift from product-push to an advisory model and provide better service orientation. Third, the industry must reflect to ask if it has done enough for its customers to meet their needs and demands. On many occasions, the industry has been reminded that in transitioning into the new landscape, it can no longer afford to rely solely on traditional business models and delivery channels.

This rate is in compliance with the provided demand of the economy for money, coming from its real growth by 6 percent. The Bank of Albania monetary program is designed in line with other policies of the economy, where its harmonisation with the government fiscal policy is highlighted. The Bank of Albania estimates that like in the past years, even in 2005, the country's economic development will be in conformity with the overall development program objectives. The last developments of the banking system consolidate the optimism that it will fulfil to the best of its knowledge the role of financial intermediation in the economy. We deem that its consolidation will continue with accelerated rhythms throughout this year, providing to the large public more credits, more services and more security in the savings conduct. 2/2
Hence, effective and sustainable longterm policy measures have to be implemented for accessing foreign markets through exploiting trade and investment opportunities. We also observe that frequent natural calamities hamper economic activity resulting in a moderation of economic expansion. This highlights the need for diversification of growth drivers in the economy as well as putting the necessary measures in place to strengthen the economy’s resilience through mainstreaming sustainability into the planning and budgeting processes and improving disaster preparedness. In the global context, after having a series of economic distortions and negative shocks after the Global Financial Crisis, now the global economy is gradually recovering. Investment conditions have improved and global trade also rebounded in 2017. So, we need to exploit opportunities created by the revival of global growth supported by synchronized economic expansion in Europe, Japan and the US for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. Better prospects in Europe and the US, which are our two largest markets, are clearly tailwinds. This is growth positive for Sri Lanka. However, we should also be mindful that gradual normalisation of monetary policies in the advanced countries could pose some challenges to the economy on both external and fiscal fronts. Sri Lanka is gradually transforming to upper middle income economy status. Sustained progress will inevitably involve greater integration with the world economy. While creating opportunities, this will also expose the economy to greater uncertainties and risks.

Road Map: Monetary and Financial Sector Policies for 2018 and Beyond  Delivered by  Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy Governor Central Bank of Sri Lanka 3 January 2018  1. Introduction Your Excellencies, Members of the Monetary Board, Senior Deputy Governor, Deputy Governors and Officials of the Central Bank, Distinguished Invitees, Ladies and Gentlemen, First, let me warmly welcome you to the presentation of this year’s Road Map. Continuing our tradition that was initiated in 2007, today we are pleased to present the eleventh Road Map of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. It is our belief that sharing our future policy direction and actions would help you to plan your business trajectory with more certainty. I hope this Road Map will enhance the transparency and clarity of our policies, which would help you to achieve your targets more effectively. The successful outcomes in your businesses would ultimately help us to implement our policies more effectively for the benefit of both the economy and people of Sri Lanka. The year 2017 was challenging. We have seen economy-wide effects due to inclement weather conditions. The drought and floods disturbed agriculture activities and agro based industrial activities. Spillover effects of these adverse weather conditions impacted the other sectors of the economy as well. As a result, economic growth is expected to be subdued and lower than we projected at the beginning of the year.
5) to be an employer of excellence, offering valuable proposals that inspire people and teams to deploy and develop their maximum potential, in a collaborative environment, with continuous learning, professionally and personally challenging; managing to attract and engage the best talents, aligned with the strategic objectives and principles of the Bank. These five strategic focuses are translated into 21 lines of action that the Bank team will develop over the next five-year period. Of these, I would like to single out some that are especially relevant for the Bank's relationship with its environment. In regards the two issues that bring us together today —monetary policy and financial stability— the Bank will begin to apply the new framework adopted recently for the formulation, adoption and communication of its decisions. In the case of monetary policy, beginning on January 1st, the new calendar and structure of the Monetary Policy Meetings will take effect, improving the instances of communication. The same is true of the calendar and structure of the MP Report and the FSR. This will couple with a deepening of the analytical work in the macroeconomic and financial fields that will be reflected in both Reports. It will involve developing a new stage of the economic modeling agenda, applying microdata bases and developing new methodologies for financial risk identification.

Interest rates on local sovereign instruments have also remained below their historical averages. However, compared with the previous FSR, there has been an increase owing, to a large extent, to lower demand for local sovereign bonds by pension funds, as a consequence of affiliates migrating to higher-risk funds. Meanwhile, in the course of this year, non-resident investors doubled their share in the local market, although within relatively low ranges compared to other emerging economies. As I have just pointed out, steep rises in external interest rates are still a risk worth monitoring. In this sense, increases in the benchmark rate and the reduction in developed central banks' balance sheets would push up the term premiums, triggering a rise in local long-term rates. According to our estimates, this increase could amount to as much as 80% of the change observed in the external benchmark. In this context, potential changes in the assets managed by medium- and long-term debt mutual funds —the FM3s— are one vulnerability to be watched closely. This could become more complex if other market players —such as pension funds and non-resident investors— also liquidate their fixed-income positions, which could imply temporary disruptions in local debt markets, amplifying interest rate movements. A normalization of risk aversion levels would have an impact on the cost of foreign credit to emerging countries, including Chile, above the possible increases in the base rate. In the face of such normalization, Chile's risk premium would tend to increase, affecting entities needing to refinance their short-term liabilities.
And as inflation has been low, real wages have increased by 2.1 per cent a year. Let me summarise: the period with an inflation target and the Industrial Agreement have meant lower nominal wage increases, but at the same time higher real wage increases as inflation was much lower than before. Have the wage increases varied substantially between the three-year periods since 1997? Figure 4 shows how nominal and real wages have increased during the six three-year periods since 1997. 3 Nominal wages have increased at their lowest by an average of 2.8 per cent a year. This is the case during the two most recent three-year periods, that is, the time since the financial crisis in 2008-2009. The three-year period 2001-2003 is the one with the highest nominal wage increases; 4 per cent a year on average. Looking at real wages, on the other hand, recent years have seen the highest increases since 1998-2000, the first agreement period following the signing of the Industrial Agreement. If we summarise, there is no doubt that the years with a combination of inflation target and Industrial Agreement have led to much higher real wage increases than the previous years without an inflation target or the Industrial Agreement. Where are we now? That is what has happened so far, but where are we now? I think there are three important things so study when looking at the current situation and which have significance for the smooth functioning of price-setting and wage formation.

The first concerns the low inflation rate, the second the significance of inflation expectations and the third the expansionary monetary policy. Inflation below target – several reasons for this Let’s start with inflation: Why is it so low now and therefore also far below the target? What are the reasons for this? 2  The Figure shows the period 2010–2012 as a whole, although there were several wage bargaining rounds during this period. 3  For natural reasons, there are no wage data available for 2015 yet. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  On an overall level, one can say that the low inflation is explained by the weak international demand in recent years and the weak domestic activity. This development reflects the fact that the recovery following the financial crisis has been unexpectedly sluggish – perhaps less so in Sweden than in many other countries. The low inflation is not just a Swedish phenomenon. It has also fallen or developed surprisingly weakly in many other countries in recent years, and other central banks have also found it difficult to attain their inflation targets. In Sweden, companies appear to have found it unusually difficult to pass on their cost increases to prices. There are also signs that inflation may have been held back by increased competition and uncertainty over the development of the economy. Furthermore, electricity prices have been unexpectedly weak over the past year. In addition, the oil price fell heavily during the second half of 2014.
7  BIS Review 121/1999  Chart 8  Norges Bank’s key rates  12  12  10  10  8  8  Overnight lending rate  6  6  1-week rate  4  4  Deposit rate  2  2 0  0 1996  1997  1998  1999  Source: Norges Bank Legg inn filadresse her  6. The mandate  Let us turn to the mandate for monetary policy and how Norges Bank interprets its role and responsibilities. The political authorities formulate Norges Bank’s mandate for the conduct of monetary policy. The mandate is laid down in the Exchange Rate Regulation, adopted by Royal Decree of 6 May 1994. Section 2 of the Regulation states:  Chart 9  The Regulation of May 6, 1994  • “The monetary policy to be conducted by Norges Bank shall be aimed at stable exchange rates against European currencies, based on the exchange rate maintained since the krone was floated 10 December 1992.” • “In the event of significant changes in the exchange rate, policy instruments will be oriented with a view to returning the exchange rate over time to its initial range.

It is more likely that the next change will involve a reduction rather than an increase. If developments are in line with expectations, any further reduction will, however, be smaller than the reductions implemented so far. 13  BIS Review 121/1999  Chart 14 Technical assumptions  • Oil price gradually falls to 120 kroner per barrel • 2 per cent real growth in public expenditure this year • Krone exchange rate 8.30 kroner per euro • Short term interest rates follow market expectations  Legg inn filadresse her  Chart 15 Technical assumption concerning money market rates  IR 99/3  6 4  IR 99/2  4  2  2  0  0  1999  2000  2001  Source: Norges Bank Legg inn filadresse her  BIS Review 121/1999  6  14  Norges Bank has changed its procedures this year. The goal is to achieve predictability and transparency. Each month the Executive Board of the Bank discusses monetary policy. The dates for the monthly meetings are announced ahead of time. Changes in interest rates will normally be decided at these meetings. After each meeting there is a press release at 2 p.m. and a press conference at 4 p.m. The quarterly Inflation Report presents analyses that provide a basis for the Bank’s conduct of monetary policy. Additional information from Norges Bank in English, such as articles and speeches, is available on Norges Bank’s website www.norges-bank.no. 11.
Since the power spectrum is a where function of the auto-covariances (including the variance , it can be viewed as a decomposition of the variance of the time-series in terms of frequency. When the power spectrum is normalised by the variance , the resulting standardised function is known as the spectral density. The filter then isolates ‘bands’ in the frequency domain of the spectral density and returns the resulting series. 10  BIS Review 168/2010  Chart 4 Ratio of loans to GDP and assets to GDP (UK)  Sources: Shularick and Taylor (2009) and Bank calculations. Chart 5 Ratio of loans to GDP and assets to GDP (US)  Sources: Shularick and Taylor (2009) and Bank calculations. The credit cycle is distinct from the business cycle in amplitude as well as frequency. To show this, Charts 6–7 plot the medium-term cycles in real GDP for the UK and US alongside the credit cycle. The amplitude of the credit cycle is twice that of fluctuations in GDP over the medium term. It is roughly five times that of fluctuations in GDP at conventional business cycle frequencies. The peak-to-trough variation in the typical credit cycle has been around 20 percentage points in the UK. For real GDP, it is around 10 percentage points. As a result,  BIS Review 168/2010  11  ratios of credit to GDP themselves exhibit a distinct cyclical pattern in the UK and US (Charts 4–5). Chart 6 Medium-term cycle in real GDP and credit (UK)  Source: Bank calculations.

Relative to the baseline, there is an additional large and persistent boom in the middle of the simulation, followed by a period of below counterfactual fundamentals. The path of the economy is more volatile, with deviations from trend larger and more persistent. In other words, the credit cycle has real and adverse consequences. Chart 2 Model simulation with low reputational weight  Source: Bank calculations. Chart 3 Model simulation with high reputational weight  Source: Bank calculations. 8  BIS Review 168/2010  2.4  Empirical implications  Several empirical implications follow from the model. First, strategic complementarities incentivise banks to adopt risky strategies in a coordinated fashion during the boom. So the dynamics of the model predict that we should observe cycles in financial activity at a macroeconomic level. Initial productivity improvements are amplified into lending booms, which are followed by credit busts and, potentially, crises. Second, at a micro-economic level, the coordination of risky strategies during the boom should compress the dispersion of bank earnings, as low ability banks masquerade as high ability banks during good times. But during the bust, when the macro state turns bad, the dispersion of banks’ earnings should increase as low ability types crystallise losses while high ability types do not. We turn next to the macro and micro evidence. 3.  Credit cycle dynamics  To what extent are the macroeconomic credit cycle dynamics predicted by the model present in the real world? To assess that, we draw on a dataset recently developed by Schularick and Taylor (2009).
In order to work on these issues, central banks and financial supervisory authorities have formed the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). Norway is represented by Norges Bank and Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway). The aims of the network include building knowledge and sharing best practices on climate risk management within the financial system. Climate change, the macroeconomy and monetary policy Natural disasters and extreme weather have an adverse impact on the production of goods and services. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable. But extreme weather events have also disrupted infrastructure and production chains. In the years ahead, climate change will lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of weather events that have a negative impact on output. In Norway, monetary policy is the first line of defence against economic shocks. When Norges Bank sets the policy rate, most weight is usually given to the outlook for the Norwegian economy over the next few years. Thus, there could be implications for monetary policy if extreme weather events occur that affect inflation and output prospects within this horizon. Economists refer to events that unexpectedly reduce output as negative supply shocks. Such shocks typically push up the price of the affected goods. There are many examples worldwide of spikes in food prices following extreme weather events or long periods of drought. Electricity prices vary considerably in Norway depending on the amount of precipitation.

Since imbalances persist on the Swiss mortgage and real estate markets, it is important that banks take adequate account of risks when granting mortgages. We are confident that the banks are aware of these risks. We are also confident that they will not use the latitude afforded by this access to capital to pay dividends or buy back shares, but rather to fulfil their economic function. In addition to facilitating lending, the SNB is helping to stabilise the economic situation through its expansionary monetary policy. To ensure appropriate monetary conditions, we must counteract increased upward pressure on the Swiss franc. We have therefore decided to scale up our foreign exchange market inventions – a tried-and-tested instrument – to shield the Swiss economy. Ladies and gentlemen, within the scope of its mandate, the SNB is doing everything it can, in cooperation with the Federal Council and the authorities, to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis on the population and on companies. Page 2/2