The most prominent is wage adjustment – after a negative shock falling wages can help reduce the cost of production and as a consequence prices. This will increase demand and help the economy return to equilibrium. A crucial prerequisite for this channel to operate smoothly is a flexible labor market – only if wages adjust immediately can increasing unemployment and an economic slowdown be avoided. We know, however, that this downward wage flexibility is rarely seen in real life. Regarding asymmetric shocks one thing seems certain. We are not able to foresee if serious asymmetric shocks are going to affect the Polish economy after joining the euro or not. We can only speak in terms of probabilities, and given the data, it seems that the probability of huge shocks seems limited. The Polish economy is strongly integrated with the eurozone, with a majority of exports going to the common currency area. Moreover, most studies (e.g. Fidrmuc, Korhonen 2003, Eickmeier, Breitung 2005) show a relatively high correlation of business cycles between Poland and the eurozone. This substantially reduces, but does not eliminate, the risk of asymmetric shocks. Looking ahead one can see potential risk factors. One of them is production clustering. If the recently observed trend for country specialization (e.g. Slovakia specializes in producing cars, India in business process outsourcing) holds on, it may increase the risk of asymmetric shocks in the future (De Grauwe 2003). Another example of a possibly distant future asymmetric “shock” is global warming.

Ardian Fullani: Overview of Albania’s latest economic and financial developments Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, on the Monetary Policy Decision-Making of the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council, Tirana, 31 October 2012 *  *  *  Today, on 31 October 2012, the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council reviewed and approved the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Based on the analysis of Albania’s latest economic and monetary developments, and following discussions on their performance outlook, the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged, at 4.0%. The Supervisory Council deems that the current monetary conditions are adequate to meet Bank of Albania’s inflation target in the medium term. Keeping the key interest rate at its minimum historical level ensures the necessary monetary incentive to promote Albania’s domestic demand and economic growth. Let me now proceed with an overview of the economic and monetary developments and key issues discussed at today’s meeting. *** The Albanian economy was faces with a challenging global environment over the first three quarters of 2012 due to difficult situation of the world economy, and particularly of the euro area. Domestically and externally generated supply shocks determined the economic growth profile and continued to test Albania’s macroeconomic and financial foundations. Over this period, the Albanian economy was faced with slow foreign demand growth, increased financial risk premia and tendencies of several financial market agents to reduce exposure to Albanian economy. These developments were also reflected in low consumption and investment levels.