samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Available at: http://www.fsb.org/wpcontent/uploads/r_130829c.pdf 9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  9  Diagram B: Financial Services Value Chain with Potential Issues for Financial Stability  Conduct regulators are in the lead in addressing regulatory issues posed by payment services innovations. 16  This is both because, at least in advanced economies, FinTech payment service providers  have not chosen to undertake banking activities and individual providers have not yet reached the scale that might be considered systemic. Looking ahead, it is possible that virtual currencies and FinTech-based providers, particularly where they gain direct membership to central bank payment systems, could begin to displace traditional bank-based payment services and systems. Such diversification could be positive for stability; after all the existing tiered and highly concentrated system has created single point of failure risks. At the same time, regulators would need to monitor such changes for any new concentrations. In this regard, with a view to such future proofing, the Digital Economy Bill in the UK proposes to extend the definition of a payment system beyond those that are inter-bank, to include any that become systemically important. If these are so designated by HMT, they would be supervised by the Bank. 17  This would be akin  18  to the recent recognition by HMT of Visa Europe and Link. 16  In the UK under eMoney regulations, providers must hold customer funds separately.

2  BIS Review 13/2005
In other words, we are facing a gap between food demand and food supply. Prices have to adjust to restore equilibrium. Since the price elasticity of food demand is low as compared to,  2  BIS Review 109/2008  say, durable goods, there needs to be a drastic rise in food prices, which is what we are facing today. Dear Guests, Until recently, the common view among central banks of developed countries was to give priority to problems in financial markets, ignoring the signs of inflationary pressures. Certainly, there are structural reasons behind the recent run-up in food and energy prices, as I have just briefly discussed. However, it is also undeniable that there are significant demand-driven pressures over commodities. Loose monetary policies adopted at the turn of the century certainly played a key role, together with excess liquidity in the financial system. Fast-forwarding to the recent period, the central banks of developed countries still keep real interest rates negative in the face of financial risks may hamper a correction in commodity prices. The commonly accepted practice in inflation targeting regime is that monetary policy should not react to supply-driven shocks that are temporary in nature and should allow temporary increases in inflation in the short-term, unless they create deterioration in inflation expectations. Otherwise, undesired fluctuations might arise in economic activity and relative prices. The increase in commodity prices would trigger a self-correcting mechanism. By changing the relative prices, it would provide valuable information on how the resources of the economy should be distributed.

Durmuş Yılmaz: Food prices and inflation Speech by Mr Durmuş Yılmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the Central Bank of Argentina 2008 Money and Banking Conference “Financial turbulence – impact on developed and emerging economies”, Buenos Aires, 1 September 2008. *  *  *  Dear Guests, It is a great pleasure and honor for me to address such a distinguished audience on the issue of “Food Prices and Inflation”. The current level of food prices constitutes a major risk to households, in particular those living in developing countries. I’d like to thank the Central Bank of Argentina to organize this conference and dedicate a special session on this issue at this juncture. Dear Guests, The second half of 2007 was not an easy period for central bankers – and so far 2008 has been even more challenging. We are currently facing significant inflationary pressures on a global scale due to record high increases in commodity prices. The surge in inflation rates has become a major challenge that threatens price stability in many countries. Average inflation throughout the world has been rising rapidly. Inflation in developed countries has reached its highest level of the last eighteen years. For the first time in many years, inflation figures of the developing countries are in two digit levels. Moreover, the financial turbulence that has started in the second half of 2007 and the subsequent credit crunch are adversely affecting economic activities. Growth rates have been slowed in many countries.
Thomas Jordan: What are the consequences of the war in Ukraine for the SNB's monetary policy? Speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the 114th Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 29 April 2022. * * * Madam President of the Bank Council Dear Shareholders Dear Guests I would like to warmly welcome you all to our Annual General Meeting, and I am delighted that this year we are able to meet in person again. The geopolitical situation has changed fundamentally in the past few months. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has shaken us all. Our thoughts are with the victims of this terrible war. Considerations of the economic consequences pale by comparison with this suffering. Nevertheless, such deliberations are also important for the citizens of Switzerland, and the Swiss National Bank is therefore working intensively on addressing the impact the war will have. On the one hand, we have to properly contextualise the immediate economic effects. On the other hand, we also have to address questions pertaining to the longer term. I will begin my speech by looking at the closely interconnected global economy as we knew it until just recently, the gains in prosperity it brought, and what it meant for monetary policy. I will go on to explain how the consequences of the war that can already be felt are influencing our current monetary policy.

A number of banks, for instance in China, have already started testing digital currencies. We may talk of a global technological revolution in central banks which will create a new form of money. What are the differences between a digital ruble and the currently existing cash and non-cash money forms? Firstly, a digital ruble is an obligation of the Central Bank, and not of commercial banks, which makes it similar to cash rubles. For those holding digital rubles, this implies that they will preserve this money, whatever happens to their banks. Secondly, a digital ruble enables faster and more reliable payments and settlements. We are currently exploring several models to design a digital ruble which organise the interaction between customers, the Central Bank and commercial banks differently, but all the models have these advantages. These are faster, reliable and secure payments. To a certain extent, a digital ruble also blurs the distinction between cash and non-cash payments. We are studying the option of launching offline payments with digital rubles via special-purpose wallets, but this is a challenging issue. This will enable people to pay with digital rubles even where there is no internet connection and they do not have cash. For companies operating in such localities, in remote areas, this option will reduce cash turnover costs. Of course, a digital ruble may also create new risks, and we are closely exploring them.
Mr Svensson examines the period 1997-2011 and calculates that if inflation during this period had on average been 2 per cent instead of 1.4 per cent, unemployment would have been 0.8 percentage points lower. If the labour force is held constant, this corresponds to around 38,000 fewer unemployed. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  been unemployed if the repo rate had been kept at the rate of 0.25 per cent, to which it was cut during the financial crisis, until today.4 I will return to this particular calculation later on. As I mentioned in my introduction, it is important to assess monetary policy and to analyse potential consequences of deviations from the inflation target. But one must also be aware of the impact of such analyses and that there is a clear risk that apparently exact figures will be regarded as concrete truths in the debate. All calculations of this nature are based on strong assumptions and are very uncertain, something that is easily forgotten or just ignored. Take the calculations that I mentioned earlier. Without going into detail, one can note that they only focus on what CPI inflation has been on average – the costs in terms of unnecessary unemployment have arisen solely because the average CPI inflation rate has been below 2 per cent. Supposedly, the idea is that this could have been avoided if the Riksbank had cut the repo rate more and brought inflation up to 2 per cent. But is this all there is to it?

You are all familiar with the challenges we face. But alone, none of you, none of us, would be able to find the perfect solution for regulating and supervising the financial system. No single person, no single institution and no single country has the perfect solution. We can and must learn from each other. And we can and must work together. 6/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  The banking union now allows us to do so – effectively and efficiently. Thank you for your attention. 1 Article 1 of the SSM Regulation (Council Regulation (EU) No 1024/2013). 7/7  BIS central bankers' speeches
Even for the natural sciences, dealing with physical constants and fixed laws of motion, the voyage of discovery can sometimes be a lengthy one. It took a century before estimates of the speed of light had converged to its true value. For much of this period, not only were best-estimates biased but the estimated confidence intervals around them often did not encompass the true value.6 Modelling complex, adaptive, socio-economic systems would make these estimation problems pale by significance. It is for these reasons that the Bank is also investing in its research capacity. For example, in our quarterly Inflation Report the Bank now shows alternative scenarios for inflation and output under different assumptions about how the world works. Alongside this, the Bank is putting greater effort into developing a pluralist set of approaches to model-building, drawing on other disciplines. Operating in the corridor In time, these investments in data and research will narrow the corridor of uncertainty. But for now, the key public policy question is what to do when operating in it? Rocket-scientists, of the real rather than metaphorical kind, have a clear answer to this question: avoid really bad outcomes.7 This is sometimes called a “minimax” strategy – the aim being to minimise the chances of the maximum possible loss. It is the policymakers’ equivalent of the Hippocratic oath – “do no harm”. So what, then, are these avoidable-at-all-cost scenarios? Let me consider three from a potentially long list.

Chart 7: Key strands of FSF work Supervisory framework and oversight −  Capital arrangements  −  Liquidity buffers  −  Risk management practices  −  Off balance sheet activities Underpinnings of the originate and distribute model  •  Uses and role of credit ratings  •  Market transparency  •  Supervisory and regulatory responsiveness to risks  •  Authorities’ ability to respond to crises  6  BIS Review 24/2008
Aside from cyclical factors, where there are elements beyond our control, attaining higher stages of development in a broad sense, depends upon us. Among the many challenges noted by numerous studies are to reduce energy costs, improve infrastructure and provide quality education. Our objective is not only to boost growth; it must also guarantee that the benefits are felt by every individual. We, as the Central Bank, have reiterated our commitment with price stability, stating that we will take every step necessary for the inflation forecast over the policy horizon to be aligned with the 3 percent target. As we have said time and again, that is the main contribution that monetary policy can make to the country’s development and welfare. Without a good macroeconomic framework, development in other areas becomes elusive. Of course, in macroeconomic stability, the Central Bank plays an essential role. Thank you very much. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 1 Business and consumer perception (*) (index, pivot=50) 70  70  60  60  50  50  40  40  30  30 04  05  06  07  08  09  10  IMCE  11  12  13  14  IPEC  (*) Value above (below) 50 points indicates optimism (pessimism). Sources: Adimark and Icare/Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez.

We must not forget that copper, our main export, traded at nearly 4 dollars per pound for an extended period, and now it is closer to 3 dollars and may fall further in the long term. Moreover, during the last decade, coincidentally with higher prices and supply shortages, investments in mining have increased significantly around the world. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Chile was no exception. During the 1990s and early 2000s, mining investment averaged 2 to 3 points of the country’s GDP. Between 2006 and 2013, this figure rose to 5 points of GDP, peaking in 2012 at 6.5 percent of GDP. This phenomenon not only allowed the country to enlarge its mining capacity, but also created major productive linkages toward other sectors, including construction, trade, and manufacturing industries. The north of our country, especially cities such as Iquique, Antofagasta, and La Serena, has seen strong development and growth thanks to the positive impact of this phenomenon. However, this investment cycle, as has been noted on numerous occasions, has entered a matured stage, resulting in a decline in the number of projects under way. This is also true of other metal-exporting economies like Australia and Peru, although differing in intensity and timing, and is symptomatic of this phenomenon. However, the aforementioned maturation of the global cycle of copper investment is not the only reason behind the slowdown in mining investment.
These indications show that businesses are seeing the economic and business merit of Shariah-compliant products and services and that its appeal extend beyond the traditional captive market. However, growth of the magnitude that Islamic finance experienced over the last decade would increasingly become more difficult if the industry does not continue to be nimble and agile in its approach. Innovation is therefore a key priority for Islamic finance players to keep expanding and gain market share. As indicated by the results of the retail consumer banking and insurance survey in the country report, the demand for Islamic banking by survey respondents far exceeds that for its conventional counterpart. This should be an encouragement for Islamic banks to boost its innovativeness in meeting customers’ needs. The Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 is already paving the way for the development of Islamic banking solutions that are differentiated from conventional products by allowing funds to be mobilised either through deposits or investment accounts. This classification brings greater options for the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  public and reflects an enhanced risk-sharing approach to Islamic banking. It also gives the industry additional options to create creative solutions for its customers. Greater engagement and collaboration between industry and academia would also ensure mutually-reinforcing efforts in driving innovation through the development and implementation of new research findings and breakthroughs.

These steps include the necessity to accelerate the potential GDP growth in the European Union and Japan through reforms of the labour market and the product market, increasing savings in the US by curbing the budget deficit, and reforms of the financial sector in China and subsequent gradual floating of the renminbi exchange rate. The central bank must consider possible scenarios of developments in the global economy and possible adjustments of global imbalances, as they significantly impact the perspectives of a national economy, and so the monetary policy pursued. Moreover, the central bank, as an institution that manages foreign exchange reserves, must monitor changes on the global financial market, as these changes and investment decisions made by the central bank influence the return on foreign exchange reserves. 5  This thesis was advanced, among others, in the frequently quoted work: M.Dooley, D.Folkerts-Landau, P.Garber “An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System“, NBER Working Paper 9971, September 2003. 2  BIS Review 32/2006  Re 2) Globalisation changes the wage and price setting mechanisms in a domestic economy. This ensues from the increased international competition and the growing role of outsourcing and offshoring. Offshoring consists in transferring of manufacturing, services or orders abroad, where such transfer may be made within a single company or to another company. Outsourcing consists in renouncing manufacturing or services in a given company and obtaining such goods or services from another company that may be located in the same or another country.
The risks I spoke of earlier are ones that monetary policy normally faces and has to relate to. Forecasts change over time and monetary policy has to be adjusted accordingly. We would have a completely different situation, however, if the euro crisis were to worsen dramatically, and there was substantial turmoil on the financial markets and economic activity suddenly dived. In these situations monetary policy needs to adjust to a crisis situation, and we are prepared for this. As a central bank, we need to be prepared to deal with many unexpected events. And we must make an assessment in our forecasts of the probability of these events occurring. A central assumption in our forecasts is that the financial market turbulence will gradually decline and that confidence will gradually improve in the corporate and household sectors. This does not mean that we believe that the road ahead will be straight and narrow. We have to assume that confidence in the countries’ ability to resolve their problems will vary over time, and during the process different countries will come under focus. When we summarise the measures taken since the worst phase of the crisis last autumn, the European Central Bank’s two three-year loans to European banks were one measure that provided immediate relief. An acute liquidity crisis was avoided and the loans have also prevented a tighter credit crunch than would otherwise have been the case. However, they do not solve the long-term problems faced by many euro area countries, which was not really their aim, either.

I have on many occasions, at monetary policy meetings and in speeches, put forward the view that policy rate adjustments should normally be made gradually as a result of the uncertainty connected to forecasts and economic statistics. The well-known economists Orphanides and Williams say in an essay that this uncertainty indicates that one should not allow monetary policy to be influenced by contradictory information and statistics that are constantly revised. 10 Instead, one should normally allow monetary policy to change gradually. This limits the impact of contradictory information and statistics that are often revised. Former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, said “Uncertainty is not just an important feature of the monetary landscape; it is the defining characteristic of that landscape.” I can only agree with him. 10  Orphanides, Athanasios and John C. Williams, “Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity (2002), pp. 63–118. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9
The positive “animal spirits” – which Keynes believed drove economies forward through their impact on business and consumer confidence – do have a natural tendency to reassert themselves after major shocks. The big worries about the future stability of the financial system in late 2008 and the first half of 2009 seem to have been replaced by an underlying structural nervousness in financial markets. So, as we have seen over the last few months, we are bound to experience setbacks in financial sentiment from time to time. This is entirely understandable given the shocks we have seen in recent years. We may need to be prepared to live with this nervousness for some time to come – and it should not be the dominant influence on the policy and judgements of the MPC, which should be based on the performance of the real economy and the outlook for inflation. The MPC has a clear remit, which is to keep inflation on target at 2% over the medium term. Our framework recognises this will not always be possible, but what we need to do is to maintain confidence that inflation will still be anchored around this target in the future. A year ago, the predominant worry was that inflation could be significantly depressed by the impact of the recession. That risk did not materialise.

Andrew Sentance: UK monetary policy – how long should “The song remain the same”? Speech by Mr Andrew Sentance, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, to the Thames Valley Chamber of Commerce Group, Reading, 13 July 2010. *  *  *  I would like to thank Michael Hume, Tomasz Wieladek and Abi Hughes for research assistance and I am also grateful for helpful comments from other colleagues. The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of England or other members of the Monetary Policy Committee. It is a great pleasure to be speaking to a business audience here in Reading, in the heart of the Thames Valley. This is an extremely successful economic region – with the highest GDP per head in the United Kingdom outside central London and the 14th most prosperous region in the whole of the European Union. 1 This track record of economic success reflects a concentration of high-tech and knowledge-based industries, particularly in the information and communications technologies sector. The Thames Valley economy also benefits from good transport links to London, other parts of the UK and international connections via Heathrow Airport, which is still Europe’s biggest aviation hub in terms of passenger numbers. It is not surprising, therefore, that a number of recent reports have highlighted the growth potential of this region in the current recovery.
BIS Review 5/2000  4

First, the main effect of technology is to transform jobs rather than create or destroy them. Go to any conference on technology and the future of jobs, and the most frequently asked question is: will technology create jobs or destroy jobs? The question misses the main point – which is that technology affects tasks within jobs rather than entire jobs. Many of the jobs we have been doing all these years have not disappeared, but the tasks we do within jobs have changed substantially because of technology. And these new tasks require new skills. And this is what the E&Y study also finds. Data analytics and automation will augment one out of two job roles in the financial sector. In other words, workers will be able to deliver over and beyond what would traditionally be expected. While some rules-based tasks will be automated, data analytics and automation will amplify the importance of tasks requiring human judgement. The study also finds that one out of three job roles will be heavily transformed. This means that a proportion of tasks within these jobs will be substituted using data analytics and automation, and the remaining tasks will converge into new job roles that require more judgement, customisation and creativity. In some other cases, most of the tasks could become automated and these job roles could be displaced. The key take-away from all this: focus on tasks that will be affected by data analytics and identify the skills necessary to perform these new tasks.