samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
8  Faster recovery in house prices  6  4  2  0 25 30 Initial house price fall (per cent)  35  40  45  50  9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  9

Norges Bank has not set a specific target for the level of the krone exchange rate. With open trade with other countries and free capital movements, we do not have the instruments to fine-tune the krone exchange rate. The task of monetary policy is to provide a nominal anchor. The inflation target is such an anchor. Stable inflation expectations can contribute to more stable expectations concerning the krone, but the rise in public expenditure and in prices for internationally traded goods also affect economic agents’ expectations as to the krone exchange rate. Our interpretation of the mandate is included in the Inflation Report. An account is also given of how different developments, including movements in the exchange rate, will affect the monetary policy outlook. Over time, the real exchange rate will be determined by conditions other than monetary policy. The real exchange rate may be measured in a number of ways: for example, by relative consumer prices and relative labour costs between Norway and its trading partners, measured in a common currency. The real exchange rate has fluctuated considerably and has at times deviated substantially from the  BIS Review 17/2006  1  average level since 1970. Nevertheless, there has been a tendency for the real exchange rate to revert to this level. The cost level in the Norwegian economy compared with our trading partners rose sharply when the oil age began. Since then, the level has fluctuated to a certain extent without showing a clear upward or downward tendency.
And finally, what lessons should we draw for the future? How did we get here? The path that led from losses in the US sub prime housing market to a collapse of confidence in the Western banking system and a savage credit squeeze has been described many times, most recently in the Bank’s Financial Stability and Inflation Reports. I don’t need to repeat that here but I would highlight two features: first this is a global story; second, the nature of the crisis has changed over the past 15 months and has called for a changing policy response. A global crisis You cannot explain recent developments on a national basis, even in the US. The roots of the crisis lay in global imbalances in trade and capital flows between advanced and emerging economies. The rapid growth of exports from Asia, and latterly the Gulf, was reflected in a substantial build up of savings. In China the national saving rate peaked in exceeded 50% of GDP. Those funds flowed back to the developed world and to the US in particular. That kept interest rates low and allowed a rapid growth of credit. Following the dotcom bubble, there was a particular appetite for fixed income investments which led to an increasingly risky search for yield. That was the platform for the excesses of lending to the sub-prime housing market in the US and a sharp rise in house prices more generally. The impact was not confined to the US.

However, if we do not tackle this we will see the growth of national restrictions on the terms on which cross-border operations are permitted – in terms of capital, liquidity and legal structure – and that could have great economic costs. 3. Strengthening banks’ resilience  The financial crisis has revealed a number of gaps and flaws in the regulatory and accounting conventions especially for banks. We need to put those right quickly and on an international basis. The G20 Summit has asked the Financial Stability Forum to take that forward. For example the events have shown up the lack of any agreement on liquidity requirements on banks. The FSA is developing proposals for UK which will deliver tougher standards. But  4  BIS Review 145/2008  we are pressing also for international agreement in the Basel Committee. Events also brought home the need for a fundamental review of both the amount and the definition of capital requirements. 4. And developing macro-prudential tools  The last lesson I have drawn is that we need to bridge the gap between macroeconomic policy and the regulation of individual firms. We need a third club in our bag which can directly dampen the financial cycle. This is needed both for financial stability and for wider economic management. As we have been reminded over the past 15 months, it is primarily in the “bad times” that banks need to demonstrate that they have adequate financial resources.
Jean-Pierre Roth: The challenges of an international financial centre: the Swiss case Speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, to the British-Swiss Chamber of Commerce, London, 26 February 2002. *  *  *  It gives me great pleasure to have the opportunity to address your distinguished assembly today. Like all the Swiss I know, I always enjoy coming to London. Even though there are considerable differences between our two countries, we have many things in common. We are both proud of our history and of our colourful traditions, we cherish our freedom and our independence. What’s more, in both our countries, the financial industry has been a pillar of our economic strength in recent times. But these days, the most striking parallelism between the United Kingdom and Switzerland can be seen in monetary affairs. Both countries are “outs”: they do not belong to the Euro-zone. In Britain, the currency is still the pound sterling and, in Switzerland, we still have a preference for our franc. We thus both face the same challenge: living next to a large currency area which absorbs most of our foreign trade. This situation is new for both of us. It is of course not up to the Swiss central bank governor to speculate how long this situation will last in the United Kingdom.

1 PS6/21 | CP29/19 | DP1/18 Operational Resilience: Impact tolerances for important business services 2 SS2/21 Outsourcing and third party risk management 3 Operational resilience – outcomes in practice - speech by Lyndon Nelson | Bank of England 4 Examples of frameworks and tools include but are not limited to: • OCIR catalogues (); • Operational Risk  Management Framework (ORMF) assessment triggers; • ICAAPs ()); • Firms’ incident management; and • Risk and Control Self-Assessments (RCSAs). 5 Prudential Regulation Authority statement on the 2022 cyber stress test: Retail payment system 6 Financial Policy Summary and Record of the Financial Policy Committee meetings on 9 and 18 March  2022Opens in a new window (bankofengland.co.uk)  6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches
Recognising the potency of marketing, I set up in 2010 within the HKMA a new team dedicated to reaching out to promote Hong Kong as the premier international financial centre (IFC) in Asia. One of the priority areas that our team has sought to promote, which is highly relevant to our treasury practitioners, is clearly the use of Hong Kong as the corporate treasury management hub for multinational companies as well as Mainland corporates with increasingly larger business footprint offshore. Our team has in the past year alone reached out to nearly 300 companies. 3. Many corporates that we have approached recognise the attractiveness of Hong Kong as an IFC. Hong Kong is a major banking centre with mature and sophisticated capital markets. Our financial system is resilient and is underpinned by a robust regulatory regime. We have first class transport and communications infrastructure. There is a large cluster of finance and legal professionals and talents etc. Yes, we do have a long list of advantages that we can deploy to lobby corporates to come to Hong Kong to set up corporate treasury centres (CTCs) to manage their cash, FX, credit, hedging, interest rates transactions. However, the HKMA outreaching team soon realised that they had run into a major problem. The problem had to do with the tax asymmetry that treated CTCs’ overseas interest expenses and income differently.

More than 30 Mainland and multinational conglomerates have told us that they are actively considering establishing or expanding their CTC operations in Hong Kong. These include many household names in energy, electricity generation and power grids, infrastructure operators, consumer goods and financiers. This is exciting news for Hong Kong’s treasury sector and its practitioners. We should expect increased treasury activities taking place here, bigger demand for a wide array of financial products, and importantly more promising career prospects for the treasury practitioners including our younger, aspiring professionals. If we succeed in attracting big corporates to use Hong Kong for their CTC functions, which I am confident that they will, it should also make it easier to convince them to locate their regional headquarters’ management activities in Hong Kong too. 7. Ladies and gentlemen, IFC is a brutally competitive business because moneys are highly mobile, and asset owners and managers will only congregate in places which provide the best services. For Hong Kong to maintain its competitive edge, we must take a two pronged approach. On the one hand, we must continue to strive to improve and excel in the underlying product, i.e. to be able to deliver the safest and most efficient services in banking and finance. On the other hand, we must continue to promote and market Hong Kong as the most sought after brand in financial services.
of rooms  2.5  2.0  1.5  1.0  0.5  0.0 BE IE LU UK MT DK ES FR CY FI DE SE NL AT EE PT CZ LT SI IT BG EL LV HU SK HR PL RO  Source: Eurostat  6  Figure 6. Population living in poor conditions percent 30  25  Total population having neither a bath, nor a shower, nor indoor flushing toilet in their household - 2015  20  15  10  5  0 RO LV BG LT EE HU PL HR PT CY SK DK EL UK FR AT SI FI BE CZ ES IE IT LU MT NL  Source: Eurostat  Figure 7. People at risk of poverty or social exclusion, % total population percent  Bulgaria  70  Czech Republic Hungary  60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  Source: Eurostat  7  Figure 8.

Chairperson, there can be no true development in our Bank without good and effective leadership. Leadership is required for us to achieve our objectives. We live in a dynamic world which calls for good leadership dedicated to hardwork, daily learning , fast thinking and acting swiftly and prudently at all times. Ladies and gentlemen, you will recall that not too long ago, we were all involved in the review of the Bank’s strategic plan and came up with the 2009–2012 Strategic Plan. In order to fully implement the goals and objectives of our strategic plan we need to enhance our leadership skills. It is against this background that this workshop was organised. Our desire is to constantly upgrade our leadership skills for the attainment of our goals and objectives even in the face of daunting challenges. In conclusion, I wish to urge you to actively participate and take a keen interest in the deliberations of this workshop. It is our expectation that you will have an opportunity to carry out an appraisal of your individual leadership style and refine it in order to impact positively on policy and the way the Bank operates. With these few remarks, it is my pleasure to declare the workshop officially open and to wish you all fruitful deliberations. I thank you! 2  BIS Review 107/2010
James McAndrews: The economy and the household debt and credit report Remarks by Mr James McAndrews, Executive Vice President and Director of Research of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the household debt and credit press briefing, New York City, 28 February 2013. *  *  *  Good morning and welcome to the New York Fed. I am pleased to have this opportunity to talk with you about some of the exciting research we are doing here at the Bank. This morning my remarks will focus on national economic conditions and then I will introduce our special presentation today on household debt and credit conditions. What I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. National economic conditions It has been three and one half years since the end of the “Great Recession.” But, the pace of this expansion so far remains very sluggish compared with previous post-World War II business cycles: the level of real gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2012 was only around 2½ percent above its previous peak in the fourth quarter of 2007. To put this into perspective, at this point in time following recessions in 1973, 1981, 1990 and 2001, the level of real GDP ranged from 14 percent to 18 percent above the previous cyclical peak.

Along with these positive economic developments, there has been a notable increase in risk appetite among financial market participants over recent months, although there was some pull-back and volatility this week following the election results in Italy. From their recent lows in mid-November, equity prices in the United States are up around 10 percent. Credit spreads also have narrowed. Clearly, a perceived decline of downside risks has contributed to the improved tone in financial markets. Notably, in the United States the full fiscal cliff was avoided and the risk of a debt ceiling crisis has been taken off the table at least for the next  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  few months. In addition, the market showed greater confidence in the policy responses to the Euro area fiscal and banking crisis, although policy challenges remain. Overall, while still tentative, I see signs of reduced headwinds and possibly greater monetary policy traction. However, several factors lead us to remain cautious about the outlook. First, in the past three years enthusiasm at the beginning of the year has given way to gloom by midyear. Second, households are still adjusting to increased tax burdens that began on January 1, which reduces disposable incomes significantly for many households. It remains to be seen what the split between lower household spending and lower saving will be, but we currently anticipate that consumer spending will weaken some in this quarter.
In principle, the three-pillar structure of the New Accord provides more precise directions to regulators to strengthen bank supervision and incentives to banks to become more sophisticated in risk management. Implementation of Basel II eliminates “one size fits all” methodology to assess risks and offers instead a wide range of methods to evaluate risks based more on failure likelihood. But the supervisory authorities in several emerging markets and many developing economies are concerned that Basel II puts a challenge they cannot meet. Probably our greatest concern relates to the need of the standardized approach to rely on external rating agencies for calculating minimum capital requirements. Currently domestic rating agencies are totally absent in Albania and not well developed as in many other non-OECD countries. On the other hand, in most of our economies many small enterprises cannot afford to be clients of international rating agencies. Since borrowers unrated from rating agencies will be assigned a 100% risk according to Basel II, initially most domestic credits may end up under this 100% category. This could reduce risk sensitivity of the new system brining it close or similar to that of Basel I. On the other hand, Albanian banks hold a significant share of government treasury bills and notes. Actually, under Basel I to this exposure of the banking system denominated in local currency is assigned 0% risk independently whether credit risk of the sovereign debt is rated or not.

Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Banknotes exhibition in Malaysia Opening remarks by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the launching of “Works on Paper: Art Inside the Wallet”, Kuala Lumpur, 4 August 2016. *  *  *  If you consider yourself to be a typical person , chances are you would never take the trouble to look at your banknotes closely unless you are in a situation where your banknote are rejected by the cash deposit machine. A typical response in a situation like this is to check your money more thoroughly to see if it is a genuine, fit and useable. Otherwise, the interest of typical person in banknotes does not go beyond their wallet. This attitude towards banknotes is not surprising and even understandable, but I hope this exhibition of World Banknotes at Bank Negara Museum and Art Gallery today will spur some interest among members of the public on the intricacies of banknotes of our country and the world over. Today we are presenting, what we thought, the 30 most innovative banknotes from around the world, printed in the past two centuries, to show why there is more to banknotes than meets the eyes. Banknotes of any nations are unique and represent the identity of the issuing country - and not surprisingly, to most people banknotes are only second to the national flag as the most identifiable and recognisable icon of the country.
This deterioration of financial conditions owes not only to increased funding costs, but also to capitals outflows towards the developed world (figure 7). In Chile, the markets’ first reaction to the American election outcome mirrored that of the rest of the world, with a significant increase in nominal and indexed long-term interest rates and a depreciation of the currency. Most recently, however, these trends have been reversed. The 10-year BCP rate, which rose about 60 bp in the wake of the election, stood at 4.4% at the Monetary Policy Report’s statistical cutoff date, that is, 20 bp above its pre-election level (figure 8). Meanwhile, at this Report’s closing, the nominal exchange rate was near 650 pesos per dollar, after trading around 680 CLP/USD on some days in November. Thus, considering the average of the ten days prior to this and the last Report’s statistical closing, the peso-dollar parity has almost stayed the same, but in multilateral terms it has appreciated close to 3.5% (figure 9). Immediately after the statistical cutoff, and after the decision of the Fed, the dollar appreciated again globally, and the peso followed suit. Thus, in recent days the nominal exchange rate has traded above 670 pesos per dollar. The evolution of the multilateral parity, combined with the behavior of inflation, domestic and external, and the copper price, have resulted in a lower real exchange rate (RER) compared with a few months back.

The normally more persistent services inflation will also fall, although considering the basis of comparison effect, the impact of lower inflation on indexed prices and its own inertia. All this in a context where, despite some widening, the output gaps are still bounded and the expected external impulse facing the Chilean economy over the next two years shows no big change from September. Still, beyond these changed projections, what merits the most attention is that the range of risks has increased. In this context, in our latest monetary policy meetings we have held the monetary policy interest rate (MPR) unchanged at 3.5%. At the same time, while acknowledging the effects that the changes in the macroeconomic scenario are having on the medium-term inflation outlook, in our last meeting we noted that, for us to meet our objective of placing inflation at 3% in two years, a higher monetary impulse might be necessary. Let me now present to you the details of our vision of the macroeconomic scenario and the projections contained in our Monetary Policy Report. The Monetary Policy Report As I said, in November the CPI posted an annual variation of 2.9%, almost half of a percentage point less than we had estimated in September. This sharper decline in inflation is mainly related to those goods most closely related with the exchange rate and some foodstuffs.
The picture of employment is nevertheless rather divided. The number of jobs in the manufacturing industry has declined markedly, while jobs in the public sector and the service industries have increased. Given this, the situation on the labour market is of particular interest. It appears to be relatively constrained, considering that we are at the end of an economic downturn and wage increases have also been slightly higher than expected, particularly in the construction sector and the service industries. As the level of employment has been retained, despite the decline in demand, productivity has shown a weak development, particularly in the services sector. To some extent, the effect of companies' higher costs has not had an impact on prices, but instead led to falling profit shares. However, it now appears that the demand situation has enabled companies to shift a larger part of the cost increases onto consumers. So, how come wage increases have been higher than expected? One possible explanation may be that the resource utilisation in the economy has been higher in recent years than we had earlier believed. A strained resource utilisation means quite simply that the total demand is high in relation to the production capacity of the economy. This is usually revealed, for instance, in rising wage increases and higher underlying inflation. In the Inflation Report presented on 19 March 2002, we have made a slight upward revision for resource utilisation.

This is also due to the operations of major central banks, to their unconventional policies; policy reversals can cause major pains, especially where there is much external indebtedness, public and/or private. As Hélène Rey says, the trilemma (free capital flows, exchange rate stability and autonomous monetary policy) may have turned into a dilemma; and that the power of monetary policy rests with the ability to control capital flows – which is a huge tall order. The resort increasingly to macro-prudential tools shows that, de facto, some kind of capital controls revival is under way, for the sake of both monetary policy effectiveness and financial stability reasons. I would argue that exchange rate flexibility has been quite helpful for undertaking macroeconomic adjustment, in Romania, too. Under-development creates additional challenges for monetary policy since catching up is accompanied by higher inflation (the Balassa Samuelson effect). This may not be a problem right now in view of the overall context, but it will likely turn out to bother us in the not too distant future. Migration of human capital (which is a very intense in some of our countries, including Romania) 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  also puts a lot of pressure on wages and fuels inflation. Let me turn now to a few regulatory issues. It is widely accepted among professionals, among us, central bankers, that the European banking sector has cleaned up much of its balancesheets, that it is better capitalized.