samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Future price developments While we have been able to see some slowdown in the rate of increase in house prices over the past year, the rate is still high; the average price of a single-family dwelling rose by 8 per cent between the first quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year. I believe that we will have to assume that property prices and indebtedness will continue to increase relatively substantially over the coming period. This belief also appears to be shared by the households in SEB’s house price indicator and SBAB’s estate agents barometer. The probability of this happening also seems to have increased recently. For instance, we have seen a rapid increase in the number of persons employed over the past year, which means that more people have the opportunity to be able to buy a house. In addition, it now appears that the property tax will be abolished completely with effect from January 2008. This tax will instead be replaced by a municipal charge of a maximum of SEK 4,500. At the same time, tax on capital gains on housing will probably be raised from 20 to 30 per cent. It is no easy task to quantify the potential effects this tax reform may have on house prices. Even if the abolished tax is financed through the housing sector, I believe that it will push up property prices to  BIS Review 56/2007  5  some extent.

Changes in the Swedish mortgage market Although no large-scale market for lending to the subprime sector has developed in Sweden, there have been a number of other changes in the Swedish housing market – changes that have affected and may continue to affect developments in household indebtedness and property prices. This year new rules were introduced regarding how much capital the banks must hold in relation to the assets linked to risks, which includes lending. These rules are called Basel II. The new capital adequacy rules will take into consideration the actual risk in lending to a better extent than the older version. As lending is considered to have a fairly low risk, it will enable the banks to hold less capital in relation to their lending. This entails a lower cost for the banks. Lower costs will enable the banks to cut their margins on lending rates and compete for loan volumes. The fact that the banks have been aware that this rule would be introduced has probably contributed to the institutions cutting their lending rates in advance. It is probably in turn the increased competition that has led to banks and mortgage institutions now allowing higher loan-to-value ratios. If one can borrow a larger amount with the same collateral, the need for a down payment declines. This makes it easier for households with good incomes but little wealth to enter the housing market. Typically, this often applies to younger households who do not already own their accommodation.
Whether it concerns developing a European system of financial supervision or setting up a Systemic Risk Council under the auspices of the ECB and the ESCB, these ideas are truly conducive to greatly strengthening the surveillance of risks both at individual institution level and for the European financial system as a whole. The reforms that I have just described should make it possible for the incentives of financial system players to be compatible with the stability of this system. The crisis has highlighted two types if not of incompatibility, at least of divergence that need to be corrected. First, within the financial industry itself. Financial innovation and developments in the business models of financial intermediaries have weakened credit discipline in favour of a strict return-oriented discipline. Regulators are working on correcting the regulatory sources of these incentives, which are dangerous for financial stability. I am thinking notably of the work aimed at reducing regulatory arbitrage and at countering the short-termism encouraged by certain prudential and accounting provisions. Second, we need to reconverge the incentives of private- and public-sector players. Their divergence is a natural phenomenon in periods of economic and financial boom. In these periods, regulators and supervisors find it harder to limit risk-taking when the risks to financial stability are unclear and competition is fierce. Maximising profit and competition considerations stand in the way of prudence and the prevention of financial imbalances. Countering these forces requires in particular the implementation of an independent macroprudential policy.

Christian Noyer: Economic and financial crisis – the post-G20 outlook Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, at a luncheon organised by the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce, Hong Kong, 11 June 2009. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure for me to speak to you today. At a time when the regulation of the financial and banking sectors is being discussed in-depth, this meeting is a unique opportunity for exchanging our ideas and thoughts on the most topical issues. I would like to raise three questions that seem absolutely essential today, a couple of weeks after the G20 summit and the Spring meetings of the IMF. These three questions are the following: •  What is the economic and financial outlook? •  What type of financial regulatory framework are we moving towards? •  How can we strengthen financial stability at the international level? What is the economic and financial outlook? After the recession that has been affecting the world economy since September 2008, the first signs of a recovery are being examined very closely. While in the first quarter output data confirmed a further decline at a similar or stronger pace than by end-2008, survey indicators point to deceleration of the slowdown in the second quarter, which justifies cautious optimism. Indeed, I see several reasons for hoping that “the worst is behind us”.
Stefan Ingves: Evaluation of the Riksbank’s monetary policy and work on financial stability 2005–2010 Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, to the Riksdag Committee on Finance, Stockholm, 31 August 2011. *  *  *  The Riksdag (the Swedish parliament) and the people of Sweden must be able to see that the Riksbank is doing its job well. It is therefore necessary for them to have good insight into our work and for the Riksdag to be able to make regular evaluations of this work. The evaluations are also important for the Riksbank to be able to develop and improve its analyses. We have already said on several occasions that we consider it an excellent initiative by the Committee on Finance to regularly commission highly-qualified external experts to evaluate our work. Today, when we are to discuss the second evaluation of this type, I would therefore like to begin by thanking Professors Goodhart and Rochet for carrying out this work on behalf of the Riksdag Committee on Finance. We also welcome the Committee on Finance’s decision to give the evaluators the task not only of assessing how we conduct monetary policy, but also how we manage the task of promoting a safe and efficient payment system, that is, what we have interpreted as our responsibility for financial stability in Sweden.

15.01.2019  The Spanish economy: transformation and challenges Spain Investors Day Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Let me thank the Governing Board of Spain Investors Day and its chairman, Benito Berceruelo, for their kind invitation to speak here today, together with the Minister of Foreign Affairs, at the gala dinner of this 9th edition of Spain Investors Day. I am convinced that, as on previous occasions, the meeting will be a success. I will be focusing on the situation of the Spanish economy and on its banking sector. Along with a brief description of the current conjunctural setting, marked by a more complex and uncertain international economic environment, I would like to summarise some of the improvements observed in the Spanish economy in recent years, in the wake of the latest and acute crisis we experienced. I shall, moreover set out various challenges and vulnerabilities which, in my opinion, need to be properly and resolutely addressed. The aim thereby would be, first, to shore up the potential growth of our economy in the long term and, further, to adapt our financial system to the new regulatory demands and to the new competitive and technological setting. Let us take the economic situation first.
We are now entering a new phase in the development of Islamic financial system in Malaysia with initiatives to position Malaysia as International Islamic financial hub. The initiative is aimed at strengthening our international economic and financial inter-linkages and thus promoting greater regional and international trade and investment activities. As part of the wide ranging liberalisation measures, we have seen the entrance of new foreign Islamic financial groups into our financial system. New licences have been issued and greater foreign interest in the domestic Islamic financial institutions have also been permitted. In addition, the listing rules were liberalised to facilitate foreign and cross-border listings. New licences are also being issued for International Islamic Bank and International Takaful Operator to conduct Islamic banking and takaful and retakaful business in international currencies. The most significant progress that has been achieved is in the development of the Malaysian sukuk or Islamic bond market. The Malaysian sukuk market is now the largest Islamic bond market in the world with more than 62% (or USD60 billion) of the global outstanding sukuk having been originated from Malaysia. Supported by a comprehensive infrastructure including the settlement and bond information system, Malaysia has an active primary sukuk market with an average annual growth of 17% over the period 2001-2006. It also has one of the most active secondary markets with a turnover of sukuk trading registering of more than USD40 billion annually.

The outcome of your academic development will obviously have a positive impact on your family, society, culture and country at large. MAKE SURE YOU TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS OPPORTUNITY. It sets the stage for the rest of your future. If you graduate from here with poor grades will mean you have limited your access to top notch institutions, should you, for example, wish to get an advanced qualification. You are limited even to apply for scholarships. And in situations of competition, the best will be selected. ZCAS is one of the renowned institutions in Zambia. One thing you must realise is that not everyone has the opportunity to be enrolled in an institution of higher learning to obtain an academic or professional qualification. Therefore, you must make the best of this opportunity to be here at ZCAS and indeed, be thankful to God. Many of your friends are not able to have this opportunity. I am also aware that for quite a good number, it is a great sacrifice by your parents to send you here. You should ensure that this investment pays off by putting in your best. DISCIPLINE For many of you, this may be the first time that you have experienced so much freedom in your lives. It is the beginning of taking responsibility for your own lives. The importance of being disciplined in both your academic and social life cannot be overstated. I believe there are no capitaos at ZCAS. You must be your own capitao.
Recommendations can be addressed to the EU as a whole, to one or more individual Member States, European Supervisory Authorities, national supervisory authorities, and to the Commission. As I  |2  mentioned, the General Board makes decisions by voting. And several of the votes that have taken place these almost six years have concerned issuing ESRB recommendations. The ESRB recommendations have contributed to reducing risks in different fields The very first ESRB recommendation targeted risks generated by lending to EU households in foreign currency, proposing measures to mitigate those risks. Although it is always hard to assess something against a counterfactual, I think it is fair to say that the recommendation in question is likely to have been both timely and important. Mitigating policy actions undertaken by national authorities reduced the risks at hand. If this had not happened, events such as the sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc in 2015 – the Swiss franc being one of the currencies in which the relevant loans were denominated – could have generated severe problems for many EU households. This would in turn have affected other financial and economic developments negatively, with the potential to spread beyond the countries directly affected. Other recommendations have, much in line with the ESRB’s macroprudential mandate, targeted a wide range of issues in different areas such as money market funds; funding of credit institutions; national macroprudential mandates; intermediate objectives and instruments of macroprudential policy; and the assessment of cross-border effects of, and voluntary reciprocity for macroprudential policy measures.

In this context, a high enough level of real convergence (in addition to the compliance with the nominal convergence criteria) is needed when joining the euro area, to limit the costs associated with losing monetary policy independence. A high enough level does not mean that we are so ambitious as to aim for a convergence level of 90% of the Eurozone average or a level equal to that of Germany (as is the case with certain approaches put forward in Hungary or Poland). However, we need to achieve a real convergence level of at least 70–75 percent of the Eurozone average. Otherwise we would be insufficiently developed and, therefore, vulnerable to asymmetric shocks and unable to synchronise our business cycle with that of other euro area economies. However, we must take care that the level of convergence increases in a sustainable manner. We should be able to preserve the pace of this process, and once steps forward have been made, we may not stop or go backwards. Past achievements in nominal and real convergence, while significant, do not guarantee future success. To this end, allow me to bring up an old, but reliable principle. The Latin saying festina lente is perfectly suitable in this case: hurrying in a slow manner, if I can say so, on the convergence path means achieving a sustainable pace in the medium and long term. In other words, we need to be a marathoner, and not a sprinter.
If it cannot be helped, he shares part of his riches with his students. - You might find this type of economist too, but only very, very rarely! 3. Economists in government  “Give me a one-handed economist! All my economists say, ‘on the one hand … on the other’.” - You surely know this quote which goes back to the late Harry S. Truman (1884-1972), when he was President of the USA. It is an expression of the impatience that befalls politicians when they call on economists for advice. Another quote by the same man is: “If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.” The two quotes describe better than almost anything the challenges an economist has to face when he chooses to work for the government. Politicians are usually confronted with sensitive questions. The replies are decisive for a politician’s success. Frequently time is short and straightforward answers are preferred - as long as they fit the preferences. Politicians have a natural predisposition to seek advice that is compatible with their political needs. Economists acting as civil servants or as government advisers are therefore quite naturally tempted to behave opportunistically. This will not pay since in the long term a serious loss of professional reputation is inevitable. Economists must not let themselves be carried away by a desire to please. Their added value lies in an objective application of their analytical and empirical tools. Economics is, not without justification, sometimes called the “dismal science” (Thomas Carlyle, 18201905). Economics is about tradeoffs.

This is an area where students exercise their own judgment. But let me tell you what my own experience is. Whether a teacher belongs to the economists driven by “social enthusiasm” (Pigou), by the wish to find out “how society functions” (Marshall) or by the “pursuit of the unknowable” (Solow), to teach is not only challenging but also most rewarding. First, one has to define the contents of a course and then how to present it. Then, one has to find out how to stimulate curiosity because this is the best motivation for learning. One has to understand how students react to complexity, and one has to be prepared to answer their questions as they arise. Ideally, a professor is able to take his students on a journey of learning that never ends. Once the course is over, a student should know more than before, have an interest in applying what he or she has learned and never forget the most important lesson: what she or he was taught is never a recipe, but only a first step in an ongoing sequence of learning, collecting experience and further learning. If you think this sounds too good to be true you may have a point. So let me end this section by painting a bleaker type of university economist: the university economist is a master of his profession who prefers not to apply his knowledge to the resolution of real-life problems, but to improve his knowledge further in order to impress his peers.
The rather good economic performance in the euro area on average still conceals individual heterogeneities. [slide] And so, first and foremost, some countries, like France and Italy, need to accelerate domestic structural reforms to improve the functioning and flexibility of their economies. And let me be clear, it is in our national interest: we currently have lower economic growth and employment than some of our neighbours, such as Germany, Spain and the Netherlands, which have succeeded in carrying out the necessary reforms. In order to achieve a “better Europe”, we need to complete these domestic reforms with what I call the “growth triangle” [slide]. It calls, at European level, for two concrete projects, in addition to domestic reforms: a “Financing Union for Investment and Innovation” (FUII) and a collective economic strategy. The first project, to be started immediately, is a “Financing Union for Investment and Innovation”, because the financial crisis has led to a persistent “investment crunch” at the European level. And yet it is not for lack of resources: the euro area has a savings surplus of more than EUR 350 billion, equivalent to more than 3% of GDP. That is huge. Several initiatives are already in place: the investment Plan of the European Commission (“Juncker plan”), the Capital Markets Union and the Banking Union which is now underway; but they do no deliver sufficient results. It is now necessary to make these initiatives converge into the FUII.

The Eurosystem has been a very efficient firefighter during the crisis and is doing its best to contribute, within its mandate, to building a more dynamic growth path for the euro area, through its monetary policy. However, the success of monetary policy still needs to be complemented with a genuine economic union to achieve the European project. This is now the responsibility of the architects, including the next governments in France and Germany. 1 business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/robert-mundell-euro-is-here... 2 If we take the rule of thumb once used by John Williams, the President of the SF Fed. 6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches
An increasing number of countries have put in place or are developing solutions like these. Even in large economies with large payment volumes, round-the-clock settlement of all kinds of payments directly at the central banks is being facilitated. In 2018, the Eurosystem launched TARGET Instant Payment Settlement (TIPS). In autumn, the Federal Reserve announced that a similar system called FedNow! would be established for settlement of real-time payments in US dollars. Iceland already has a similar system The Riksbank is planning a transition to settlement of real-time payments directly at the central bank by linking to the European TIPS system. Settling real-time payments individually and directly at the central bank automatically eliminates the credit risk between system participants. The system is simplified because banks no longer need to take a detour via a clearing house. With fewer steps, the operational risk in the payment system may also be reduced. 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  The EU Payment Services Directive 2 (PSD2) was implemented in Norwegian law with effect from April 2019. One of the purposes of PSD2 is to facilitate greater competition and innovation. Similar regulations are being implemented elsewhere in the world and may help enable new entrants to gain a foothold in the payments market, whether they are global tech giants like Apple, Google and Facebook or smaller, more local operators. New services and service providers will require adjustments to underlying infrastructure and rules. Equal and transparent competitive terms are crucial.

The Commission made no specific recommendations for how the challenges related to supervision and regulation of critical ICT service providers and data centres should be followed up. In its consultation response, Norges Bank wrote that the following points deserve particular attention: The significance and management of concentration risk because many critical functions 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  rely on a small number of ICT service providers and data centres. The supervisory frameworks for ICT service providers and data centres that are important for key public functions, including the payment system. Whether the contingency arrangements of key ICT service providers and data centres are sufficient. ICT service providers, FMI owners and financial institutions need to address cyber risks. Finanstilsynet and Norges Bank have recently taken the initiative to engage in a dialogue with the industry on whether to introduce a framework for testing cybersecurity in the banking and payment system in Norway. This framework, called TIBER-EU, has been developed by the European Central Bank (ECB). A number of Norway’s neighbours, including Denmark and Sweden, have introduced or are about to introduce the ECB testing framework, ie TIBER-DK and TIBER-SE, respectively. Finanstilsynet and Norges Bank are planning to invite the industry to a dialogue on this testing framework. It can also be used to bolster security linked to key ICT service providers in the banking and payment system.