samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Slide 20  FX derivatives market FX derivatives market depth, 1998-2016 (annual amounts as percent of GDP) 30  26.6  28.4  25 20 15 10  6.5  5  2.4 2.5  2.3 2.3  4.5  0 Advanced Economies  Emerging Economies 1998  2001  2004  Latin American Economies 2007  2010  2013  Chile  2016  Sources: Salinas, J. M. and J. M. Villena (2014), “Mercado Cambiario Chileno, Una Comparación Internacional: 1998 a 2013,” Studies in Economic Statistics 104, Central Bank of Chile, Bank of International Settlements, and IMF. [SLIDE 21] In addition to the above, it should be noted that Chile has reached almost universal coverage of basic services through the so-called Cuenta RUT (ID bank account), managed by the state bank (BancoEstado). This is a sight account that can be opened only with a legally issued ID. At present, there are some 9 million of these accounts under operation (for a total population of 17 million), allowing its bearers access to electronic transfers, debit cards and ATM cash withdrawals. 16  Central Bank of Chile 29 June, 2017  Cuenta RUT is a hybrid financial product that provides a good example of the factors that facilitate technologically-enabled financial products in Chile. These include: universal and secure identity registration; universal online invoicing; internet penetration, and regulations that foster cash-flow services, like factoring and leasing.

2  BIS Review 60/2008  Climate change and environmental sustainability Another longer term issue that the world has to deal with is climate change. This is a topic of increasing importance and it is timely that Merrill Lynch has introduced the environmental theme in this year’s conference. Many countries have come to realize that economic development without taking into account the environmental cost presents a classic case of the Tragedy of the Commons. Problems caused by climate change and global warming affect all of us. As a country lacking in natural resources, Singapore sees a critical need to promote sustainable development. Singapore’s National Research Foundation has dedicated significant resources to facilitate research efforts and encourage commercial spin-offs. R&D initiatives have been complemented by both domestic and foreign investment in the areas of sustainable water and solar energy projects. Some of you would have read about Renewable Energy Corp from Norway, which is building a Euro 3 billion plant in Singapore for the manufacturing of solar modules. By 2010, NEWater, our very own water recycling industry, will be able to meet 30% of Singapore’s water demand. Singapore has also adopted a model to promote sustainable urban design for housing development, environmental management and transportation. For example, Singapore is working with China on a project to help develop environmentally friendly townships via the Singapore-Tianjin Eco-city project. Access to funding for such projects is the key to the success of developing a sustainable model of urbanization and production of renewable energy.
BIS Review 61/2008  3  was characterised not only by its deepness but also by the policy mistakes committed at the time, which introduced protectionist barriers with the aim of protecting national economies from international competition in the hope that this would succeed in better coping with the crisis. Many countries adopted measures to restrict trade with the aim of favouring local production at the cost of imports and trying to protect jobs. In June 1930 the United States introduced the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which imposed disproportionately high duties on imported goods. Other countries took retaliatory measures. International trade declined (some say it contracted sharply), deepening the depression and delaying the recovery. 2 At the current juncture one the few factors supporting growth is international trade, driven in particular by emerging economies. Without this contribution, growth would be stalling completely in advanced economies. Under these conditions, thinking of curbing international trade would be a mistake in the same way as in 1929. To isolate a country from globalisation means weakening it economically. The empirical evidence shows that there is a clear relationship between a country’s degree of integration in the global economy and its economic performance over a relatively long period of time. It is the more integrated countries that compete better and develop, not those which shut themselves off from competition. The microeconomic evidence confirms the macroeconomic trends.

While it may still be too early to understand the long-term impact of a fully-remote staffing model on trust, it is interesting to note that over the last few years, a number of large firms that had favored a highly remote workforce, including Yahoo and IBM, had begun to reverse course, asking employees to return to the office to increase personal interaction and collaboration.9 We can perhaps learn by comparing firms that intentionally transitioned to a virtual work environment with limited personal interactions, to those that relied heavily on personal interactions and were forced into a fully remote posture. Indeed, we will explore how proximity impacts trust as part of a panel on trust and decision-making that I’m moderating on December 2 for the New York Fed. 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  Severed networks. The second dynamic is severed personal networks. Beyond formal networks and hierarchy within an organization, the value of informal networks should not be underestimated. As I mentioned, the financial sector has been quite effective in maintaining core services and operations during the pandemic so far. One hypothesis is that this success reflects, in part, the development of personal relationships, teams, and networks over years, and possibly decades. As people came together during the initial months on the pandemic, it is likely that they relied on their existing networks and leveraged the strength of existing relationships.
Since 2010, it has run a programme to purchase government securities of countries in difficulty in order to support the market, ease pressure on interest rates and thus improve the efficiency of the transmission of its monetary policy to the real economy. In addition, cooperation between the world’s major central banks was stepped up, in particular for the provision of foreign currency liquidity. The rescue packages put in place for Portugal and Ireland are working well. Ireland in particular has considerably reduced its deficit, and implemented very extensive economic structural reforms approved by a broad political and social consensus. It is ahead on the execution of the programme and has even already returned to a path of growth. In Greece, unfortunately, the situation is less rosy. For several months, it has appeared that Greece would not manage to meet its targets for reforms and deficit reduction. This has exacerbated market concerns. To resolve this situation, the Heads of State or Government of the euro area and the IMF worked towards an agreement that was reached on 21 July 2011. This agreement allowed for major progress: –  First, it agreed to support a new rescue programme for Greece, better suited to its situation, with lower interest rates and extended maturities;  –  Second, it included, on an exceptional basis and solely for Greece, a voluntary contribution of the private sector to write down the country’s debt and enable it to recover;  –  Lastly, it considerably bolstered the EFSF’s scope of action.

It is important to realise that this constitutes major progress, in particular from the point of view of European integration. No one would have imagined that this would have been possible a few years ago. However, it was not enough to contain the crisis. As of last August, against the backdrop of expectations of slower growth, financial market tensions increased again. A vicious circle developed between the risk of a Greek default, uncertainties surrounding the debt of other euro area countries and their banking sectors. In other words, as sovereign debt had previously been considered a risk-free asset, banks purchased massive amounts of government bonds. This was especially the case in Europe due to the interdependence of the economies and the free movement of capital. For instance, German and French banks have a relatively large exposure to Greek, Italian and Spanish debt. The fear of a credit default by these countries therefore constitutes a risk of very heavy losses for banks. Since this would ultimately affect the public finances of the States if it materialised, it in turn increases concerns about the fiscal soundness of these countries, creating a vicious circle. So you can see that much of this mechanism is not entirely rational. Only the Greek debt situation is truly critical, while all the other countries have solemnly undertaken to repay their debts in full and they are in a position to do so.
Spiegel online on 26th September 2007 described a research led by the Nobel-price winning chemist Paul Crutzen which had found that biofuels emit even 70 percent more greenhouse gases than fossil fuels. In effect, global warming may accelerate and lead to further increase in frequency of disasters such as floods, droughts, and unexpected weather changes that may have negative  1  Views presented today are my own and do not necessarily represent the official position of the National Bank of Poland and the Polish Financial Supervision Authority. 2  Rybinski K. (2007) “The Role of the EURO for the Future of Poland”, speech by Krzysztof Rybinski, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Poland, 15 June 2007, http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/wyklady/rybinskiadesti.pdf  BIS Review 138/2007  1  effects on crops. Secondly, food prices will be lifted up by an increasing demand for agriculture products in the emerging markets, especially in Asia, as the catching-up process progresses. It is worth keeping in mind that the share of food in the CPI basket is some 10 pp. higher in Poland than in the eurozone, so agflation, if it materializes, will lead to inflation divergence. 2. One cannot exclude a possibility that other commodities prices may continue to rise as well. Demand for commodities has already substantially risen in recent years. The “problem” lies again in the emerging markets. Fast growing economies create still growing demand for all sorts of commodities, especially metals and fuels (for example: oil consumption in China has doubled within last 10 years).

If, on the contrary, central banks treat agflation as a typical negative supply shock, then meeting inflation criterion will be challenging. Finally, if strong exchange rate appreciation continues, we may just make it will both fiscal and inflation criteria, but we will enter eurozone with heavily overvalued exchange rate, which may harm growth for many years if not decades. This is a real “Gordian knot” to be solved by CEE central banks, financial market regulators and governments. The “Alexandrian solution” would be massive acceleration of productivity enhancing reforms, especially in the area of knowledge economy, where the CEE countries are badly lagging behind other regions. If we don’t accelerate reforms we may still be lucky, there could be few years in a row with good global crops, or someone will finally produce cheap hydrogen-powered car to replace gasoline, resulting in a collapse of oil prices. But I would not bet the country future on the assumption of being lucky. Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 138/2007  3
Ravi Menon: Emerging Asia - short-term outlook and risks Pointers for panel remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the 5th Milken Institute Asia Summit, Singapore, 13 September 2018. * * *  Global growth has shown remarkable resilience despite mounting uncertainties. Growth this year is likely to be as strong as last year’s. And last year’s growth was the strongest since the global financial crisis. And Emerging Asian economies have been doing well. But the going will get tougher in the months ahead and going into 2019. Some slowdown in momentum is to be expected, following 12–18 months of strong growth What bears close watching are two headwinds emanating from the US and sweeping across the world, including Emerging Asia. The first headwind is rising trade tensions. The second is tightening global financial conditions. First, growing trade disputes. The impact of the trade tariffs announced to-date has been limited. If the threats of further tariffs are carried out, trade volumes will come down and some reduction in growth is to be expected – the US by about 0.5% points and China by about the same amount. This will have implications down the supply chain and production networks across Emerging Asia, shaving off growth in most economies. 2019 will most likely not be as good a year as 2018. But the effects will not be devastating – we are not looking at a recession. This is not a global trade conflict. This is centred on the US.

It must be right in the longer term that lenders should get back to fundamentals of creditworthiness and apply conventional lending standards; indeed this is one of the themes of this speech. Implicit parental guarantees have enabled companies such as GITIC to borrow more than they should have done and the lending has not been sensibly used. However, the adjustment process cannot happen overnight. The transparency is not there in many Chinese companies; and even if it was there, it would not in many cases support the present levels of borrowing if the companies were looked at on a stand-alone basis. The banks will therefore need to be patient and allow borrowers sufficient time to manage their debts down to more sustainable levels. The banks will also need to cooperate in assisting distressed Mainland BIS Review 53/1999  4  companies to work out their problems over time and to restructure their debts. The other side of the coin is that the companies and their shareholders must be prepared to be open and transparent with their creditors. Dealing with the financial problems of companies in general has become a major preoccupation of banks in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the region. There is still not much new lending going on - in Hong Kong domestic lending has fallen for ten months in a row. The main priority for many banks is therefore to limit the damage from loans already on the balance sheet.
It is also important that we incorporate policy issues arising from this seminar in our domestic policy processes and thereby enrich such processes by taking into consideration regional perspectives. 2  BIS Review 44/2009  The challenge going forward is how to maintain and sustain the economic gains and macroeconomic stability in our countries. There is need to encourage diversification and enhance competitiveness by increasing expenditure on infrastructure and social services. We need to continue to encourage investment in our economies that will lead to a diversified export base and a greater local value addition. For monetary authorities, there is need to continue to closely monitor global developments and always stand ready to take appropriate measures in the local financial markets to ensure that confidence in the financial systems is maintained and any systemic risk is avoided. Such actions will facilitate maintenance of the macroeconomic gains achieved thus far. This is a necessary ingredient for economic growth and poverty alleviation, even against the unfolding adverse effects of the global financial crisis. Ladies and Gentlemen, let me end by urging all of us present here today to deliberate on issues that will help us face the future in a much more confident way. Let us use this unique opportunity to have a discourse on how to protect and sustain the recent achievements of higher income levels and reduced poverty. African countries need to find ways and means of coming up with a response framework to reverse the effects of the crisis.

Caleb M Fundanga: The effects of the crisis on Africa Remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the African Economic Research Consortium Senior Policy Seminar (SPS XI), Lusaka, 6 April 2009. *  *  *  The Executive Director, African Economic Research Consortium; Government and Central Bank Officials present; Distinguished Participants; Members of the Africa Economic Research Consortium; Ladies and Gentlemen. It is with great joy and gratitude that I welcome you all to Zambia and to this seminar. I wish to extend a warm welcome to all the international participants. I hope you will have a good stay in our beautiful and friendly city of Lusaka. I feel particularly honoured and grateful to officiate at this important seminar organized by the Institution I am proud to be associated with, the Africa Economic Research Consortium (AERC). Chairperson, let me begin by thanking you and AERC for choosing Zambia to host this important seminar. I am aware that since its establishment in 1988, the AERC has played a pivotal role in developing and harnessing resources in Africa both informational and human capital. Research, workshops and seminars such as this one have helped to strengthen the capacity of undertaking policy–relevant research into the problems facing the management of economies in sub-Saharan Africa. It has, through these interventions, undoubtedly contributed to the positive strides African economies have scored in the last decade with regard to economic governance and development.
The average rate of change in the last three years is still negative in countries like Slovenia, Hungary, Latvia, Croatia, Bulgaria, indicating that some structural obstacles, such as high NPLS, new regulatory requirements, deleveraging of the private sector, still act as drag for a stronger credit revival. Also, cleaning up of the balance sheet of the banks may to some extent distort the data on the credit support. In order to make a qualitative dynamic review of the main forces behind the lending behavior of the banks in the region, we do a recap of the main findings of the CESEE Bank Lending Survey from 2013 until present day4. The recap points to several important conclusions. First, credit supply from being tight in the second half of 2013, was gradually eased until the first half of 2015. Afterwards it stabilized, and no major changes were observed. In all of the surveys, including the last one for the first half of 2016, the new regulatory environment and capital constraints, as well as the NPL ratio are pointed as key factors which adversely impact supply conditions. Second, demand for credits was improving throughout the whole period, since the second half of 2014 in particular. Furthermore, since 2015 credit demand for investments purposes is also visible, signaling positive structural shifts. Third, access to funding of the banks, in general was not signaled as problem even at the beginning of the survey, indicating that funding problems that emerged at the beginning of the global crisis were alleviated.

Chart 5: Deposit interest rates and profitability indicators 8  3.0  2013  2014  2015  POL  ROM  SRB  2016  SLO  2012  MKD  LAT  HUN  BIH  2011  SLO  SRB  ROM  POL  0 MKD  1  0 LIT  2  1 LAT  3  2  HUN  4  3  EST  5  4  CZR  5  CRO  6  BUL  6  BIH  Interest rates on enterprise deposits, in %  7  2016  EST  2015  CZR  2014  POL  2013  CRO  2012  MKD  2011  LIT  Interest rates on household deposits, in %  7  BUL  8  ROA, %  2.0 1.0 0.0 average 2004-2008  -1.0  average 2009-2012  average 2013-2015  -2.0  SLO  SRB  ROM  LIT  LAT  EST  HUN  CZR  CRO  BUL  BIH  ALB  -3.0  Source: Central Banks’ internet pages. The data on the average annual growth of households’ deposits in the region show a sharp deceleration, compared to the pre-crisis period. Yet in the last three years the growth rate was rather stable and gravitated around 5%. On a country by country basis, there are some examples where the data do reveal need for cautiousness.
Recall that FOMC statements around the time of the taper tantrum stated that asset purchases would continue “until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in the context of price stability,” and it is possible that many market participants took the signal from an impending taper that the FOMC was less committed to the goal of a substantial improvement in the labor market than they had thought. Not only could this have affected some investors’ expectations for the balance sheet going forward, but it could have also affected views on the FOMC’s other policy tool: the overnight interest rate.23 A related possibility is that in the current situation expectations for a very gradual program of increases in the federal funds rate are relatively well entrenched, with liftoff more than a year and a half behind us. In 2013 market participants were focused on policies that would add more 9 / 15  BIS central bankers' speeches  accommodation. Under the “recruitment effect” proposed by former Governor Jeremy Stein and Sam Hanson of Harvard Business School, yield-oriented investors react to lower short-term rates by “reaching for yield” into longer-dated maturities, and reverse this effect when short-term rates rise. These effects can be even larger when balance sheet policies are in active use.24 As a result, a shock to expectations of the central bank’s reaction function can lead to outsized movements in longer-term rates.

23 In his book, Bernanke describes it as follows: after the June FOMC meeting, investors’ “conclusion, despite the  plain meaning of what I had said at the press conference, was that we were signaling an earlier increase in our federal funds rate target. They sold their Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, driving up longerterm interest rates.” 24 Stein, Yield-Oriented Investors and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism, September 26, 2013. 25 This description is drawn from Soros, Fallibility, Reflexivity, and the Human Uncertainty Principle , Journal of  Economic Methodology, January 2014. 15 / 15  BIS central bankers' speeches