samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I would like to conclude by quoting Ben Bernanke, Professor of Economics and former Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Board of Governors: “The more guidance a central bank can provide the public about how policy is likely to evolve the greater the chance that market participants will make appropriate inferences” I believe that policies and plans unveiled in relation to the monetary and financial sector would be instrumental in ensuring continued stability in our economy. The effectiveness and the success of those policies cannot be realised without your support as stakeholders, and I am sure, as in the last year and in the past, you would continue to extend your maximum support going forward. Thank you and I wish you all a Happy and Prosperous New year 2019. 43

Although CDS premia for European banks have been going down in the last few months, their level is still considerably above previous years as well as that of Swiss and US banks. Finally, as my colleague Thomas Jordan has explained, the global economic outlook remains modest. For Europe, in particular, we have revised our short-term forecast downwards again slightly. For Switzerland, the National Bank is expecting moderate growth. Economic conditions remain comparatively good, which – in conjunction with the low level of interest rates – is boosting the continued strong momentum in the mortgage and real estate markets. I will speak about developments in this market in more detail later on. To sum up, the risks in the banking environment remain considerable. First, the risk of an escalation of the European debt crisis is not insignificant. Second, imbalances are building up in the Swiss real estate market. This goes hand in hand with an increased risk of significant price corrections in the medium term. Greater resilience of the big banks The situation of the big banks has improved since the last news conference, as both institutions have further increased their resilience. This increase was particularly pronounced at Credit Suisse. According to the bank’s most recently published data, it increased its holdings of loss-absorbing capital by roughly three-quarters in the second half of 2012. In addition to retaining profits, this increase is mainly attributable to the capital measures announced in July, which have already been implemented to a large extent.
Both the central bank and the central government can default on their payments in two ways: by not repaying the debt, or by inflating away the debt. It does happen that countries fail to repay their debts. If the debt lies with the central bank, it is more likely that it will be inflated away. Based on this reasoning, are there situations where the central bank should step into areas similar to fiscal policy? Yes, there could be such situations. One might be if an acute shortage of liquidity arises, for instance, during a financial crisis. 4 In a speech given in 2013, Larry Summers talked about “secular stagnation”. See Rachel and Summers (2019). See, for instance, Bartsch et al. (2019), Bernanke (2016), Bernanke (2019), Eichenbaum (2019), Reichlin et al. (2019) and Shirai (2019). 5  3 [7]  Central banks are better than government at creating liquidity quickly. 6 Another situation is if the market begins pricing a higher credit risk in government bonds than in central bank money. If one wants the credit risk to be transformed into an inflation risk, it may be desirable for the central bank to step in and support the government's funding, for instance by buying government bonds or through direct transfers to the treasury. A similar situation may arise in a monetary union if there is no fiscal policy at union level. But we are not close to one of these situations in Sweden today. Our public finances are in good shape. National debt is low.

Figure 8  BCS: causes behind changes in lending standards (1)  (index, moving four-quarter average)  Big enterprises' demand  30  Substitution of funding sources  15 0  Households' supply (2)  30  10  15  0  0  -10  10 Competition other entities  0 -10  Other  -15  Working capital  -15  -20  -30  Mergers/acquisitions  -30  -30  -45  -40  -40  -60  -50  -50  -75  -60  -45 -60  Fixed asset investment  -75 14  15  16  17  -20 Regulatory changes  -30  Risk (npl, default, other) 14  15  16  -60 17  (1) Index measures net relative importance attributed by banks to credit demand and supply determinants, respectively. For more detail, see Banking Banking Credit Survey. (2) Average between housing and consumer Source: Central Bank of Chile.
But, as I emphasised earlier, it is not only these indicators that we will be considering. All incoming statistics that contribute to the picture of future inflationary pressure will be followed closely. It should also be underscored that the outcome is not inevitable. An influence can be exerted with economic policy. I spoke earlier of how budget measures in the form of taxes as well as expenditures can modify the workings of the labour market and the economy in general. As regards the labour market and wage formation, there are many other things to do, for instance in labour market policy, the rules and implementation of unemployment support, the rules that influence wage formation and so on. Concluding remarks In many respects, economic policy has produced good results in recent years. This applies not least to the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy. Government debt has been reduced, interest rates have fallen and economic growth has been good, and all this has been combined with low inflation. Employment has been a problem; there are now clear signs of an improvement here, too. One important explanation for the successful combination of high growth and low inflation in recent years is that the crisis in the early 1990s brought capacity utilisation down to a low level. If economic  7  BIS Review 77/1999  activity strengthens as expected, the situation may gradually change. Capacity utilisation is rising. This presents policy with new challenges, with an increased risk of higher inflation.

The stock of Swedish covered bonds (housing bonds) issued in Swedish kronor (SEK) is just under SEK 2,000 billion. This is more than double the size of the outstanding volume of government bonds in the same currency. The stock of corporate bonds issued in SEK corresponds to almost 700 billion, while the stock of municipal bonds issued in SEK by municipalities and Kommuninvest is just over 400 billion. All in all, this means that the Riksbank has the possibility to increase its bond purchases. However, the fact that the possibility exists does not make it an appropriate measure. There are several aspects to consider; for example, how it affects resource distribution in the economy and the risks for to the Riksbank’s balance sheet. Another issue is whether the Riksbank should consider sustainability aspects in its bond purchases. I will come back to this at the end of my speech. Allow me to summarise what I have discussed so far. I feel confident that the Riksbank can act with strength and security if a crisis threatens to destabilise the Swedish economy. However, we should be humble when it comes to the difficult considerations that may then be required in monetary policy. The scope for combatting a severe downturn in the Swedish economy is improved substantially if other policy areas also contribute, in particular fiscal policy.13 The remaining issue is the most difficult – should central banks just try to combat the potential negative effects of climate change or should they also act to combat climate change itself?
As a result, the economic growth of 2019 resulted in the level of 2.2%, down from the level of 4.1% recorded in the previous year. The shocks we suffered slowed down the growth rate, but did not divert the Albanian economy from the positive development trend. This performance was reflected in the reduction of the unemployment rate, in the increase of employment and wages, as well as in the reduction of the foreign debt and the public debt of the country. In parallel, the main indicators of the health of the banking sector remained at satisfactory levels. The average inflation of 2019 resulted in the level of 1.4%. The performance still below the inflation target, required the maintenance of the stimulative direction of monetary policy during 2019. For this reason, the Bank of Albania kept the key interest rate unchanged at 1.0%, oriented the market on maintaining the easing direction of monetary policy in medium-term horizon, as well as supplied banks with the necessary liquidity. In response to our monetary policy, financial conditions were stimulating to increase aggregate demand and appropriate for returning inflation to target. The monetary stimulus brought about the reduction of the credit price and stimulated the growth of lending. Under these circumstances, private sector lending experienced a relatively rapid growth and showed a better distribution. Also, the monetary stimulus reduced the cost of debt service for businesses and households, as well as created the premises for a more stable exchange rate.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Benchmark market indices - milestones in financial market progress Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the launch of Citigroup Malaysian Government Bond Index & Dow Jones-RHB Islamic Malaysia Index, “Benchmark Market Indices - Milestones in Financial Market Progress”, Kuala Lumpur, 23 June 2005. *  *  *  Yang Berbahagia Dato' Sri Sulaiman Abdul Rahman Taib, Executive Chairman, RHB Capital, Dr. Zaha Rina Zahari, Chief Executive Officer, RHB Securities, Mr. Piyush Gupta, Country Officer and Chief Executive of Citibank Berhad, Distinguished Guests, Members of the media and Ladies and Gentlemen, "The use of benchmark market indices emerged on the financial scene as early as in the 1880's. In 1884, Charles Dow, journalist and founder of Dow Jones & Company produced the first Dow Jones Index, published in the company's 'Customer Afternoon Letter' which was later to become the Wall Street Journal. Of what we know, Charles Dow had always been a keen market observer. The haphazard idiosyncratic price movements of shares of individual or group of companies indeed did not lend itself to a coherent assessment of the performance of the market nor enable any meaningful analysis of market direction and investors' inclinations. This gave rise to the need for an index that reflects the broad market performance and investors' interest. This first market index was simple. Prices of 11 stocks, the most actively traded on the New York Stock Exchange, were averaged.
The crisis originated in the US housing market, and in other areas, such as Ireland and Spain, collapsing housing markets also played a major role in the course of events. As you know, the financial crisis was followed by a debt crisis in Europe. Thanks to the lessons learned from the 1990s crisis, the Swedish economy was in a better state than many others to manage the weak economic developments after the financial and debt crises. For instance, Sweden’s public finances were in good shape before the crisis broke out. Unlike the 1990s crisis, here one can say that “things were not OK abroad, but Sweden was OK”. This does not mean that the Swedish economy has been spared the repercussions of the financial and debt crises – far from it. Sweden is a small, open economy. We are strongly affected by developments abroad. The euro area is our largest export market, and the problems there consequently have a very negative effect on demand for Swedish exports. The developments in inflation reflect in many ways the repercussions from the weak global demand in the wake of the financial and debt crises, something I will return to later. Nor were the Swedish banks spared problems during the most recent global financial crisis. But in some ways, this was also an entirely different course of events compared with the 1990s crisis.

BIS Review 72/2004  5
Given the Bank of England’s general concern for systemic risk, we would tend to evaluate this question in terms of whether the existing cushion of capital has given the right level of protection to the system, ie have we established the right level of tolerance towards banking crises. Individual bank failures do not prove inadequacy of the framework - although a complete absence of bank failures would suggest severe overprotectionism. It is very difficult to answer this question definitively, given that bank failures and banking crises tend to have their roots in a number of different causes, not just inadequate capital. It is difficult to say therefore how much difference extra capital would have made, or how many more crises would have resulted had the regulatory capital demand been lower. Nevertheless the frequency of crises, even in developed countries since the Basel Accord was implemented, is not so low as to make us feel that the regulatory demand for capital is overstated. Using IMF data on banking crises, we find that during the BIS Review 70/2000  4  1990s four out of 11 G10 countries have suffered a banking crisis - a statistic which I do not find particularly comforting. And, although developed countries tend to escape the twin plague of a banking crisis combined with a currency crisis, we should not suppose that this rather high incidence of crisis in developed countries is mitigated by the costs of the so called crises being noticeably low.

One way of thinking about the 1988 Accord is that, aimed principally at internationally active G10 banks, and using crude measures of risk that assumed some sort of average portfolio and profile of risk for such banks, it set a “confidence level” for the soundness of individual banks and hence the system. Looked at in this light, the Committee’s statement means that the authorities do not intend to tolerate a different - ie lower - level of confidence following the introduction of the new Accord. In other words,  3  BIS Review 70/2000  under the new regime, the average internationally-active G10 bank will not be more likely to fail than it would be under the old regime. This seems a fairly sensible way to view the relationship of the old Accord with the new version. It leaves plenty of scope to see redistribution of required capital, from less-than-averagely risky banks to more risky ones. It also leaves scope for overall capital to reduce over time, if better risk measurement or other techniques lead to a reduction in the risk taken. That said, looking at the appropriate level of capital in this way still means that we have to be able to measure the current confidence level for G10 bank insolvency which is established by the existing Accord. This is not an entirely straightforward task. One starting point could be the ratings of G10 banks.
Let me share with you some relevant statistics; a full time agent (which we understand makes up less than 40% of the total number of agency force) brings home an income of more than three times the national average income. What is clear is that part time work doesn’t cut it if we want to earn a decent income. Full commitment and dedication is required of an insurance or takaful agent if it is to become a viable career. Therefore, there is a strong case for part-time agents to significantly enhance their productivity in taking the profession more seriously by becoming full time agents. The Bank, through the LIFE framework, has set clear expectations, that going forward, we envisage that at least half of the insurance agents ought to comprise full time agents. Under the proposed framework, the Bank will take stern actions and heavier penalties against unfair business practices including mis-selling of insurance and takaful products through its market conduct supervision. We hope that the industry would study the concept paper thoroughly, before the Framework is finalised. As part of the reform in the general insurance industry, in particular the motor insurance industry, various measures have been introduced to improve the efficiency in motor claims assessments. The insurance and takaful industry has established a 24-hour nationwide toll-free call centre known as Accident Assist Call Centre which provides immediate roadside assistance to road accident victims as well as answers basic enquiries on motor insurance claims.

We had recently issued a concept paper on Life Insurance and Family Takaful Framework. This Framework is set to transition the life insurance and family takaful industry into a new operating environment, characterised by changing market dynamics including demand for greater transparency, and driven by advancement in technology and changing consumer behaviour. The Framework’s main aim is to increase insurance and takaful penetration, and ensuring a fair deal to consumers. The framework is supported by three main pillars; the liberalisation of operating limits, diversification of delivery channels and strengthening of market conduct practices. The Framework will be implemented in two phases to allow the industry and the public sufficient time to adjust to the new operating environment before further liberalisation is  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  considered. Under the first phase, greater operational flexibility is given to life insurers and family takaful operators to operate in a more competitive environment and allow greater product innovation to be delivered through a wider range of delivery channels. The Framework proposes for the current commission and other operating cost limits for investment-linked products to be removed. In addition, the commission limit for pure protection products, namely pure term, critical illness and medical and health is also proposed to be removed subject to certain preconditions. While allowing greater operational flexibility, the Bank will ensure consumers’ interest remains protected.
Many who have been critical of the policy conducted by the Riksbank claim they support the monetary policy framework and the inflation target. But bearing in mind the aim of monetary policy having been to keep inflation around the target and to maintain confidence in it, and that the Riksbank has had to work quite hard to achieve this, it does not seem far-fetched to conclude that the criticism is implicitly nevertheless that the target itself should have been different. This is true at least if one believes that monetary policy could have been very different to what it has been. And this is exactly the opinion many critics must be perceived to have; otherwise it is difficult to understand at all why the discussion is so lively. In this context, it can be worth emphasising that the expansionary policy conducted by the Riksbank has been just enough to bring up inflation to 2 per cent. Inflation has never been excessively high in recent years, but on the contrary has recently fallen back somewhat and is now once again below the target. It is therefore difficult to see how we, so to speak, have gone too far in view of our target. I think it is reasonable that those who claim they support the monetary policy framework and the inflation target, but nevertheless have been critical of the policy conducted, take this into consideration.

I have been informed that this Gateway will also include in its content, the Shariah resolutions database of the International Shariah Research Academy (ISRA) following the signing of the memorandum of understanding between Thomson Reuters and ISRA that is scheduled today. ISRA was established in 2008 to provide a platform for greater engagement amongst practitioners, scholars, regulators, academicians in the area of Shariah and to promote applied research contemporary issues in Islamic finance. Their efforts have contributed to the harmonisation of Shariah interpretations and thus the standardisation of Shariah applications and practices is Islamic finance. ISRA has now become an important repository of knowledge for Shariah views or fatwas. The Reuters Islamic Finance Gateway thus has the potential to become an important vehicle for worldwide dissemination of high quality information on Islamic finance. In performing the function as an aggregator of information on Islamic finance, the Gateway will showcase the dynamic pulse of the global Islamic financial services industry. This increased information flow across borders in real time will also reinforce the trend of the internationalisation of Islamic finance. There is already an increasing level of foreign participation in the Islamic financial markets resulting in the increase of cross border flows in the international Islamic financial system. The increased information flow would allow for the raising of funds in different jurisdictions and for the investor base to be broadened further. Liberalisation has also brought greater foreign institutional presence in national jurisdictions resulting in diversity of players in the Islamic financial systems.
But in Sweden, the political majority chose in 2013 to give responsibility for macroprudential policy to Finansinspektionen, which meant that the Riksbank’s mandate remained unchanged. After the financial crisis a discussion arose regarding central bank independence and what tasks they are best suited for. 22 Had the central banks been overloaded with new tasks in some cases, causing a threat to their independence? 23 Immediately prior to the appointment of the inquiry into the Sveriges Riksbank Act in 2016, I gave a presentation which discussed these issues, among others. 24 The discussion started from Figure 6, which shows how the mandate of the central bank is related to the degree of independence. As I mentioned earlier, one motive for making central banks independent was the desire to attain low and stable inflation. In this way, independence was linked to a clear and limited mandate. The broader the mandate a central bank has, the greater the number of general policy issues that tend to crop up on the agenda, which could be a reason to limit central bank independence. Although my focus today is on monetary policy, I would like to take up an interesting question that Andy Haldane at the Bank of England has brought up. 25 The Bank of England has been given a very broad mandate through its responsibility for both microprudential supervision and macroprudential policy.

Two features of the current situation strike me as most relevant in explaining this development: first, lower levels of public confidence in the banking system; and second, very low interest rates which thereby reduce the opportunity cost of holding banknotes (as a noninterest bearing asset). 2  BIS Review 162/2009  I should add two important points at this stage. First, my understanding is that this pattern over the last two years is reflected in other major currencies. Second, as I will come back to later, banknotes are central-bank money in a form that can be held by the public, in other words the retail equivalent of reserve accounts at the central bank, the latter being wholesale central-bank money. Banknotes are therefore a non-interest bearing store of value. In the current recession, the demand for banknotes has risen, and it is likely that this reflects demand for central-bank money as a store of value. We can add some further evidence to support this story by looking at the pattern of behaviour of the various denominations of Bank of England notes. We issue four denominations – £ £ £ and £ Chart 4 shows the growth rate of each denomination over the last nearly four years. The striking feature of this chart is the growth rate of the highest denomination note, the £ which had picked up from the onset of the financial crisis in the summer of 2007, and then rose further from last autumn, in the wake of the failure of Lehman.