samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Denis Beau: Navigating a changing weather Speech by Mr Denis Beau, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of France, at a Meeting with Observatory Group, New York City, 10 June 2019. * * * Accompanying slides of the speech. I would like to discuss with you today a few issues that come to mind when watching over global financial developments. I do not know whether a storm is coming but the weather has certainly changed over the past quarters and we need to make sure that we are ready to withstand harder times. Indeed, the two points I would like to make in my initial remarks are 1/ risk to financial stability are on the rise 2/ against that backdrop, it would be prudent to strengthen further the resilience of the global financial system. Macroprudential policy has a critical role to play in this respect, alongside a strong focus on filling knowledge and policy gaps while maintaining a steady (regulatory and supervisory) hand at the helm. (1) Risk to financial stability are on the rise [Slide 1] The macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain: the global slowdown, which was initially exacerbated last year by idiosyncratic factors, is deeper and more persistent than initially foreseen. Since last summer, the IMF has revised its assessment of the global economic outlook downwards. The cyclical upswing it expected back in the spring of 2018 became a less even expansion with increased downside risks over the summer. Last autumn and late last year, the IMF insisted on the weakening of the expansion.

First, because financial markets are so highly integrated, central banks need to cooperate closely in order to master the problems. Second, incentive schemes in banks that have given particular priority to rewards for risky behaviour should be changed, and the instruments for measuring risks need to be reassessed. The way in which the Swiss National Bank steers the Swiss franc money market, however, has proved its worth, with the three-month Libor being successfully held inside the target range. In this way, the real economy has been protected from the upheaval on the interbank market. BIS Review 31/2008  1
Its government finances were in fact in better shape than in many other advanced countries. But troubles had been accumulating in its banking system, caused especially by small and medium sized banks having made excessive loans to a property sector that has now crashed – a familiar problem repeated almost in cycles, across a range of countries. The result is a cutback in credit, a deeper recession, greater strain on government finances both as revenues decline and the government is forced to bail out banks, and worsening bank balance sheets as banking assets lose further value and borrowing costs increase. We are therefore seeing a vicious cycle of economic decline and a loss of confidence. The situation is not unique to Spain. The specifics of the balance sheet problems vary from country to country, but a self-reinforcing cycle of feedbacks between falling economic activity and weak bank and sovereign balance sheets is now taking place in several countries in Europe. It is complicated by an increasing fragmentation in politics, which makes the journey to a credible and lasting solution in the Eurozone all the more complex and challenging in the years to come. The problems in the Eurozone and the US underline the absolute necessity for consistently sound banking practices and governance by banks. The crisis also provides lessons for regulators and the supervision of banks. The IMF has found that regulatory intervention in Spain lacked timeliness and effectiveness, even though the problems in banking had been identified early on.

Regulators must be prepared to take early and decisive corrective actions to forestall a build-up of risks in individual banks and the banking system as a whole. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Further, contagion amongst banks is a fact of life. Financial systems can be severely stressed by their weakest points, even if it involves a single bank or a group of small banks. The Northern Rock episode in the UK was an example in the earlier phase of this crisis. The Spanish cajas or regional savings banks are now another. The largest Spanish banks are widely acknowledged to be well capitalised, to have lower exposure to the property sector and to have well diversified earnings internationally. But until the troubles in the cajas are resolved, even sound Spanish banks are being penalised by higher funding costs, and citizens and tax payers too are exposed. Confidence is therefore about banking systems, not just about individual banks. This is all the more why regulators have to be vigilant in spotting weaknesses and requiring corrective actions, both across a system and in individual banks. The weakest point matters. International regulatory reforms The global financial crisis has prompted a major review of international regulatory standards. We have achieved much, with the new rules developed through the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the Financial Stability Board – new rules on the quantity and quality of capital and liquidity and the ongoing work to strengthen cross-border supervision and resolution frameworks for global banks.
The takaful industry continues to exhibit good financial results each year, as reflected in the three-fold increase in total assets to RM6.5 billion in June 2006, as compared to RM1.9 billion five years ago. More significantly, average doubledigit growth rate of 18.9% for net contributions of combined family and general takaful in the past three years, demonstrated the high potential of the industry. Whilst sustaining the current pace of development, there still exists high growth prospect for the takaful sector, in view of the large untapped potential, with the market penetration rate recorded at merely 6.1% in June 2006. Ladies and gentlemen, Bank Negara Malaysia has laid down a number of initiatives to further enhance the competitiveness and growth momentum in the development of the takaful industry. These initiatives emphasised on enhancing operational efficiency, strengthening corporate governance and risk management as well as improving the market practices and consumer awareness. All players need to capitalize on these initiatives for the takaful industry to achieve sustainable success and unleash the potential gains of the Islamic finance in Malaysia and abroad. Allow me to share some significant developments that may shape the future direction of the takaful industry moving forward. Firstly, as the prudential framework evolves towards a predominantly principle-based and riskbased regulatory approach, there will be a greater emphasis on risk management, corporate governance and transparency so as to maintain investor confidence and public trust.

Mohd Razif bin Abd Kadir: Further development of the Islamic financial services industry in Malaysia Speech by Mr Mohd Razif bin Abd Kadir, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the official launch of HSBC Amanah Takaful (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd., Kuala Lumpur, 12 September 2006. *  *  *  Bismillahir Rahmanir Rahim It is indeed an honour to be here this morning to commemorate the launching of HSBC Amanah Takaful (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. This occasion chalks up another accomplishment in the takaful industry in Malaysia, as we position ourselves towards achieving a dynamic, competitive and efficient Islamic financial system that is able to contribute to the overall development of our economy, and to enhance the integration of our Islamic financial system with the global market. The launching of HSBC Amanah Takaful (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. marks another significant milestone in terms of our strategy towards developing a progressive takaful industry, that is able to adapt to the increasingly challenging and competitive environment as well as adjust to the forces of change that has redefined the domestic and international financial landscape. Ladies and gentlemen, Over the past two decades, the takaful industry in Malaysia has grown progressively, underpinned by the holistic and pragmatic approach in the development of the Islamic financial industry. Indeed, we have witnessed an orderly development of the takaful industry.
Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell: Beyond the turmoil – rules, supervision and infrastructures Speech by Ms Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the opening panel at the SPIN 2009 Conference, Rome, 15 June 2009. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure for me to participate in the opening discussion at this conference. The organisers, in choosing the title of the panel, have given us the challenging task to look beyond the current turmoil surrounding rules, supervision and infrastructures. This is certainly not easy as we cannot yet speak of an end to the difficult period facing both the financial and real sectors of the economy. However, looking beyond the turmoil and start implementing the lessons we have learned is exactly what is needed at this point in time. Against the background of the crisis up until now, we have to draw the right conclusions and begin designing the future of the financial architecture, including new rules and improved supervision and oversight. This needs to be done now before the window of opportunity – which will not remain open forever – closes. However, before looking beyond the turmoil let me take the opportunity first to examine the performance of market infrastructures in the current crisis. Developments in the financial markets and the fate of specific institutions have been at the heart of the public debate.

Therefore, as infrastructures are becoming increasingly interlinked, more coordination in the implementation of the default rules is vital for further mitigating risks at the systemic level. Finally, the default of Lehman Brothers was a major showcase for the severe implications of “institution-based interdependencies” between two or more infrastructures resulting from the exposures of major financial institutions participating in each of these infrastructures. Therefore, it is crucial for us to continue closely monitoring the interdependencies between individual institutions in order to assess their impact on the stability of the infrastructure. Infrastructures for OTC derivatives Let me now turn to the need to strengthen the infrastructure for OTC derivatives. OTC derivative markets have been very dynamic with a veritable explosion in outstanding contract volumes primarily over the past decade. The basic problem, however, is that this very dynamic evolution of OTC derivatives markets has outstripped development of the underlying clearing and settlement arrangements. Indeed, as the post-trading of OTC derivatives remained predominantly bilateral and non-standardised, the respective arrangements have become increasingly inadequate for coping with the growing volumes and complexity of OTC derivatives trades. This was highlighted in particular during the financial market turmoil, when higher trading activity and market volatility further aggravated the existing tensions. [The resulting processing backlogs and uncertainties about counterparty risk raised strong concerns among policymakers, as highlighted in the Financial Stability Forum’s April 2008 report 1 on the lessons from the financial turmoil.]
[…] a fund mechanism […] makes it easier to decouple annual spending of petroleum revenues from current revenues.”3 7/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  Returns in financial markets also vary more over time than other revenues. With the current size of the oil fund, fluctuations in the value of the fund may be considerable from one year to the next. Fiscal policy and the Norwegian economy must be shielded from these fluctuations in the years ahead. The needed decoupling that was highlighted in the Revised National Budget for 1995 has taken on a new form. Chart: Fiscal spending of petroleum revenues Combined with high oil prices and healthy returns, the fiscal rule has brought considerable fiscal leeway. This year around a fifth of government spending will be financed by transfers from the oil fund. The level of oil revenue spending has reached 8 percent of mainland GDP. There will be less leeway further ahead. Last year was the first time money was transferred out of the oil fund to finance the non-oil deficit. We can no longer assume that the oil fund will continue to grow as a share of the economy. With a high level of oil revenue spending, there is a risk of a sharp reduction in the fund’s capital. This could, for example, happen if a global recession triggers both a decline in oil revenues and low or negative returns on the fund’s capital.

Finally, and crucially, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, we are working with Fed colleagues and other agencies to help put the nation’s financial system on a firmer footing. Yet, much remains to be done and we are determined to keep at it. I recognize fully that there can be no return to pre-crisis business as usual – whether on the part of the financial sector or on the part of regulators like ourselves. All in all, there is a lot to keep my colleagues busy. National economic conditions Now, let me update you on national economic conditions. Put simply, growth in 2011 has been disappointing. We entered the year with some momentum, spurred by fiscal and monetary policy stimulus. U.S. economic output grew at a 3 percent annual rate from mid-2009 through 2010. While hardly a blistering pace, it was sufficient to reduce the unemployment rate by a half percentage point during 2010. Then, during the first half of 2011, growth slowed so much that the unemployment rate rose back up to 9.1 percent. Growth slowed partly because of temporary factors. As these factors have subsided, growth has picked up. But the consensus expectation for 2.4 percent annualized growth in the third quarter is still disappointing. Looking forward, I regard continued modest growth as the most likely outcome. This sluggishness convinces me that other, more persistent factors must also be holding back growth.
Dimitar Bogov: Economic and financial cycle spillovers – reconsidering domestic and cross border channels and policy responses Address by Mr Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the 5th Annual Research Conference “Economic and financial cycle spillovers – reconsidering domestic and cross border channels and policy responses”, Skopje, 7–8 April 2016. *  *  *  Dear Governors, Your Excellences, Ladies and Gentlemen, Dear guests, Let me wish you a warm welcome to our fifth Annual Research Conference that we usually host to mark the anniversary of the country’s monetary independence. This year’s Conference is a kind of a small jubilee considering the fact that for five consecutive years we have been inviting policy makers and researchers from the region and wider to discuss main policy issues and research questions, creating useful interaction and mutual knowledge increment, on which we are very proud. In addition, this year’s Conference coincides with yet another great anniversary – celebration of 70 years of central banking activities in the Republic of Macedonia and the conference is among the events that mark this immense anniversary throughout the year. As you probably noticed, this year we have chosen quite comprehensive and challenging Conference topic: Economic and Financial Cycle Spillovers: Reconsidering Domestic and Cross Border Channels and Policy Responses. Although not a new issue, it has been fully indorsed in the last global crisis and considered to be one of its main lessons that is still widely explored in the central banking and academic community.

Savings Bonds, corporate bonds, and ETFs complement existing investment options in the market. •  Individual investors now better able to form a diversified and balanced portfolio at low cost. Introducing Savings Bonds 41. Singapore Savings Bonds are a special type of Singapore Government Securities (SGS) for the individual investor. •  Like regular SGS, Savings Bonds offer same long-term risk-free returns. •  Unlike regular SGS, holders of Saving Bonds not exposed to price risks when they redeem them early. •  Savings Bonds provide flexibility for investors to get their money back to meet unexpected needs for cash. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  42. Pleased to announce that first Savings Bond will be issued on 1 Oct 2015. Interested investors will be able to apply for this issue from 1 Sep. •  Details of first issue such as amount of bonds available and bond’s interest rates will be released when applications open. •  A new Savings Bond will be issued every month for at least next 5 years, so there is no need to rush for first issuance. 43. To help investors understand features of Savings Bonds and learn how to apply for them, MAS has set up dedicated Savings Bonds website and Savings Bonds hotline. Details will be made available later today. Facilitating retail access to $ corporate bonds 44. Bonds are relatively easy to understand, offer stable returns that are typically higher than fixed deposit rates, and are less susceptible to extreme price movements.
In Spain, banks have had to provision for potential losses through the cycle. They were required to provision using non-tax deductible amounts for future losses at the time the loan was extended. Such dynamic provisioning has probably functioned effectively also because this system did not require that the supervisory authorities or the banks themselves had to decide that capital should be increased. 12  BIS Review 131/2009  Nordic cooperation  Equal competition considerations require that banking rules are practiced as evenly as possible across countries. For Norway, there are limits to how effectively regulations specific to Norway will be because we are part of the Nordic banking market. The Nordic region, however, is a well-suited region for an active use of regulatory measures. Nordic banks engage in cross-border operations. At the same time, they have little activity outside of the Nordic region. Nor are foreign banks from other regions large in this region. The conditions are therefore in place for effective cooperation in the area of banking regulation and crisis management between the political authorities, supervisory authorities and central banks. In the growth period from 2004 to 2008, foreign banks expanded rapidly in the Nordic market, but during and after the crisis they curbed their activity. I am afraid it can be said that they have amplified fluctuations in Norwegian markets. However, we assume the decline in their market share over the past year is attributable to their being harder hit by the international crisis than Norwegian banks.

Concluding remarks  Let me conclude with a few reflections on the general issue of this talk, namely monetary policy and Basel II. I have tried to highlight those distinctive features of the revised capital framework which, in my opinion, are more likely to exert some influence on the terrain in which central bankers design and implement their monetary policies. Only the passage of time will reveal the consequences of the most ambitious bank-capital regulatory framework ever envisaged at a multinational level for the conduct of monetary policy. Still, I feel we can lay hands on some basic, but valuable, equipment for performing this jump into the future by looking at the past. So far, I have drawn on some important lessons imparted by past monetary and financial episodes and experiences. Let me now draw on one further lesson. The enormous success of monetary policy in bringing us the benefits of low and stable inflation could have hardly been possible without a preliminary diagnosis of the causes of high inflation and its effects on welfare, including an assessment of what the objectives of monetary policy should be, their relative importance over different horizons, and a comprehensive analysis of the best institutional framework and the instruments required.
Our currency, the ringgit, has been subjected of market volatility throughout this episode of global economic uncertainty. While most emerging markets currencies depreciated following the reversal of capital flows, the extent of ringgit weakness has gone beyond fundamentals and rational thinking. While market liquidity remains sufficient, on certain days, FX spreads have widened to 100 pips in the interbank market, and led to spikes in the movements of the ringgit exchange rate. Market volatility has almost doubled from around 8% to 14–15%. I believe that the recent adverse market conditions with thin liquidity in the FX market have been exacerbated by irrational market behavior and risk aversion. In the current market environment, our own analysis has revealed that the higher interbank volume and the higher market volatility were due to this risk aversion. A small client’s order gets passed around among interbank players like a “hot potato”, and the exchange rates move each time it changes hand. These irrational behaviors have significant repercussions on the real sector of the economy. Banks, fearing rapid movement in the ringgit, quoted widen spreads to corporates and this gets amplified when corporates themselves get increasingly nervous and rush to fulfill their foreign currency requirements. As a result, trades in small volume can lead to a disproportionate impact on the exchange rate. This is in contrast to Malaysia’s strong economic fundamentals, steady and sustained growth, high level of international reserves, low unemployment and a resilient and diversified financial system, etc.

Of the remaining 773 billion baht of NPL in the banking system at end-June 2003, over 400 billion are either in the court process or have completed the court process and in the legal execution process with assets awaiting to be liquidated. To speed up the process of asset sales and liquidation, we have proposed to the Ministry of Finance to carve out this portion of the NPLs from the banks by an independent body that would be assigned the task of asset sales and liquidation. This proposal could become effective by early next year and the approach would greatly assist a speedy resolution of NPL problems. The remaining NPL of approximately 350 billion baht would not be a difficult problem for banks to handle, given the current low interest rate environment, the ongoing economic recovery, and improving bank profitability. As for the longer term, it is important that the banking system diversifies its services and reaches out to meet the needs of the rural population currently considered under-serviced by the industry. This will ensure that financial constraints will not remain as an obstruction to a broad-based economic prosperity of Thailand. The Financial Sector Master Plan, which has been drafted by the Bank of Thailand and is currently under the Ministry of Finance’s review, has looked closely at this important issue. And last but certainly not least, even when the Thai economy can manage to sustain growth, we are not immune from new challenges and risks brought about by globalization.