samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Our forecast is that economic activity will strengthen in the near future, a development which is supported by the fact that economic policy remains expansionary. There are some causes for concern; primarily the high oil price and global imbalances, which contribute to the uncertainty over international economic developments. Our assessment in the October Inflation Report was that the risks for inflation were balanced, that is, the risks of weaker price development were balanced by the risks of higher inflation. As before, there is also reason to take into account the fact that household borrowing and house prices are continuing to rise at a rapid rate. I agree with the analysis in the Inflation Report and with the decision to hold the repo rate unchanged. At the same time, in my opinion there is reason for some concern with regard to the sustainability of the current economic trend. There are already signs of a slowdown in the United States, which are probably linked to the severe storms the country has suffered, as well as to the fact that inflation appears to be accelerating and to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases. It has long been clear that a slowdown in domestic demand is necessary in the United States in order to correct global imbalances. However, there is a risk that the adjustment of the imbalances will occur too rapidly and will be combined with a rapid fall in property prices. This type of development could in turn lead to a rapid braking of consumption.

The new comprehensive package of measures that we adopted on 10 March 2016 reflects two main objectives: first, to return to inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. This is not the case at present since inflation stood at –0.2% in the euro area in February, taking account of the sharp decline in oil prices, but it should return to positive territory in the second half of 2016. The other objective is to bolster the financing of the real economy and to protect it from the pressures related to market volatility. The new series of targeted refinancing operations extension of the asset purchase programme, for its part, will be of particular benefit to large French corporations. We are convinced that these additional measures will deliver concrete results, as did the successive measures we have implemented since June 2014. The latter have indeed boosted lending to businesses, while lowering the cost of credit, and made a 0.3% contribution to French growth in 2015, or even 0.4% according to INSEE. This represents about 80,000 additional jobs for the economy. We are therefore consistent in our objective, and ready to act using the right instruments. But we also remain vigilant as to the possible risks that our monetary policy could generate.
And, at the end of these remarks, I hope you will share your perspectives with me. After all, the primary purpose of my visit to China is to listen. Background on the Federal Reserve System Some of you may be familiar already with the Federal Reserve System and the New York Fed. For those of you who are not, I would like to provide some background. The central bank of the United States is known as the Federal Reserve System. There is, however, no single entity that goes by that name. The central bank comprises, instead, three key components: the Board of Governors, which is an independent government agency; twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks, which operate under the supervision of the Board of Governors; and the Federal Open Market Committee. The United States Congress ultimately oversees the 1/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  Federal Reserve System and its entities. You may be familiar with the names Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan. Dr. Yellen is the chair of the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee. Her predecessors in those roles were Dr. Bernanke and Dr. Greenspan. You may also be familiar with the name Bill Dudley. He is the president and chief executive officer of the New York Fed—in other words, my boss. He visited China earlier this month.

We read and study and admire the great dissenters: John Marshall Harlan, Harry Blackmun, and Antonin Scalia, among others—even though we may not always agree with their views. This training is important because speaking up is not always easy. Every lawyer will likely encounter a situation in which you simply need to be courageous in stating a divergent or unpopular viewpoint. In these circumstances, remember that you are part of a profession, not just part of a firm or a company. Professional courage is expected of you by your fellow lawyers, 5/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  and you should count on their support. The New York City Bar has called professional courage “the indispensable element” of lawyering. “The essential need is for lawyers . . . not to waver when the advice is unwelcome, no matter how important the client or how powerful the officer or director resisting the advice.”5 Second, be on the lookout for what is not being considered. Ask yourself, “What are we missing?” This is a critical question in good risk management. In-house lawyers are often wellpositioned to spot problems that others might miss. These issues become apparent only with a certain perspective—one that looks across an organization with both independent judgment and inside knowledge. Lawyers can offer both. Third and finally, try to promote diversity and inclusiveness in the organizations where you work. I have seen too many examples of supervised banks that managed their risks poorly because they approached decisions with limited experience, insight, and perspective.
And, it should encompass key regulators and central banks, for information sharing and elimination of regulatory arbitrage, which has been one of the underlying causes of this crisis. While the crisis management may lead to rapid changes in regulatory framework, such as the much discussed mark-to-market rule, it is important to remember two things. First, investors would form their own opinion of valuation. Second, differences in such treatment could, if not carefully managed, cause regulatory arbitrage, moral hazard, deterioration in risk management culture, and difficulty in exit-policy. There is of course no simple rulebook on how to deal with a crisis. Each country has to take into account its own institutional context. But, the mantra of a good and sensible risk management, especially at its core principle level, should not be violated. Again, I cannot overemphasize that the internal risk management system of banks should match its risk profile, as deemed appropriate by the Board. Simply observing minimum regulatory standards or international standards may not be adequate. Should the nature of its underlying risk indicate otherwise, attempts to ignore it would likely be tested by markets, and with real consequences. For this reason, the key principle of Basel II makes a very good sense, and even more so with the dynamic changes in risk emerging from the current crisis. On the issue of cooperation, I am pleased to say that central banks and regulators of the Asia Pacific region have forged a very close cooperation over the years, under fora including ASEAN, EMEAP, SEACEN, and SEANZA.

Banks with CDO exposure have already made full provisioning and recognized losses in line with IAS 39, and presently all sub-prime related CDOs have been unwound. Thai banks also have very low exposure to investment banks like Lehman Brothers and have no investment in US GSE securities. In all, total exposure of Thai banks to foreign investment is about 1.2 percent of total assets, about half of which are sovereign assets. Having said this, we are very mindful of the risk from second round effect of slowdown in global growth and domestic growth, which can affect credit, market, as well as liquidity risk. To handle this, the Bank of Thailand has been holding dialogue with top managements of banks to discuss financial stability outlook, and have conducted stress-test to ensure that banks are alert to these risks and are able to manage them to ensure adequate capital and liquidity. We will continue to hold candid and two-ways dialogues with all the banks operating here to ensure that we can manage these challenges and dynamics of the global turmoil. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to conclude with some lessons learned so far to increase our immune system going forward. First, growth must be based on strong macroeconomic foundation, with prudent fiscal and monetary policy, flexible policy options, and strong external positions.
Ardo Hansson: Availability of banking services in Estonia Answer by Mr Ardo Hansson, Governor of the Bank of Estonia (Eesti Pank), before the Riigikogu (the unicameral Parliament of Estonia), Tallinn, 22 September 2014. *  *  *  Interpellations raised by members of the Riigikogu concerning the accessibility of banking services 1. Why has Eesti Pank not set minimum requirements for the provision of cash and payment services in a decree alongside the technical requirements, in the context of the Emergency Act? 2. What solutions has Eesti Pank discussed for ensuring the equal accessibility of cash and payment services across Estonia? The principal position of Eesti Pank Banking services are important and they need to be accessible to people and companies across Estonia. It is reasonable for services to be provided efficiently and flexibly. I understand that people are worried about the accessibility of banking services across Estonia. Eesti Pank does not prefer any one means of payment over any other. Cash is an official means of payment and so Eesti Pank believes that it should be available through flexible solutions everywhere in Estonia. Eesti Pank works every day to supply Estonian companies and people with cash. We provide a flexible cash service to the commercial banks, giving cash out and taking it in every working day, and in exceptional circumstances we can be even more flexible.

The commercial banks distribute the cash among the people and companies of Estonia, in the same way that it is done around the world. Eesti Pank is not aware of any country anywhere where the central bank is responsible for operating the cash network serving people and companies directly. It would require massive investment and fixed costs for Eesti Pank and the outcome would most likely be unwieldy and unclear for the public in their use of money. The commercial banks are much better able to do this and do it more efficiently. However, Eesti Pank is responsible for managing cash circulation, and we consider it important to engage in looking for ways of making sure services can be accessed across Estonia. Access to banking services is a problem globally, this is not an issue that is unique to Estonia. A parliamentary commission in Australia looked into the matter ten years ago, and similar questions have been discussed in Canada and Sweden and other countries. The trend is for the number of bank branch offices and cash machines to be cut, and this is happening everywhere in the world in response to advances in technology, trends in demography and changes in consumer preferences. To some degree this is a natural evolution against which it would be pointless to stand. Equally it creates problems of access to banking services, and such problems need to be resolved.
Such framework needs to be accompanied by adequate accounting, auditing and disclosure standards, to improve market transparency and enhance supervisory effectiveness. Turning to Mainland China's experience, the liberalisation of capital account has been selective. Inflows of foreign direct investment have long been encouraged, which has contributed significantly to China's robust economic growth. In more recent years, steps have been taken by the authorities to allow greater portfolio flows. In particular, the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) schemes have enabled foreign investors to access the domestic financial market, while under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) schemes, financial institutions can, upon approval, invest overseas on behalf of domestic investors. Reflecting the limited channels of outward investment and market conditions, however, capital flows have been overwhelmingly inward bound in recent years, and China has experienced a rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. This had fed into pressures on the exchange rate and inflation which were only eased somewhat by the global economic slowdown in more recent months. The People's Bank of China has employed sterilisation through open market operations, reserve requirements and credit quota in order to offset the impact of capital inflows on domestic monetary conditions. Such measures, however, have incurred costs to the central bank and the banking sector. Thus it would be useful to consider ways in which outflows of capital can be liberalised in an orderly and regulated manner to alleviate the BOP pressures in the near term.

While there is no doubt that unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) have helped stabilise the financial system and supported economic recovery after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), many have argued that the economic or financial benefits created by UMPs have not been shared evenly. Some studies have highlighted that UMPs disproportionately enrich the “haves”, as they tend to hold more assets such as stocks and properties that benefited most from UMPs.3 Hong Kong has been experiencing this trend, especially in the housing market. With a prolonged period of close-to-zero nominal interest rates and negative real mortgage rates, Hong Kong’s housing prices have been rising for over 10 years. This has eroded housing affordability and widened significantly the wealth gap between home owners and those who have yet to buy a home. How should central bankers and policymakers think about this important issue and what can be done about it? We have lined up a couple of presentations focusing on housing today and tomorrow, which I hope will shed some light on 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  policymaking in this area. 6. Having looked at UMPs’ implications on asset prices, let’s now turn our attention for a moment to labour income. To the extent that UMPs have driven aggregate improvements in the labour market in terms of job creation, they have nonetheless failed to benefit some segments of the workforce that are the most in need. For example, many of the jobs created are low-paying and/or part-time in nature.
(Figure 7) and (Figure 8) show the behavior of the Treasury General Account—the Treasury’s “checking account” at the New York Fed—and balances in the New York Fed’s foreign repo pool, which is an overnight investment opportunity made available at market rates as a service to eligible foreign official and international account holders.23 Large shifts in these cash management practices can impact monetary transmission in a couple of ways. First, although we are not now conducting monetary policy via a reserves-scarcity framework, in the assessment of some analysts, changes in the stock of reserve balances still matter to pricing in money markets over a medium-term horizon.24 Largely as a result of fluctuations in these balances and in ON RRP take-up, reserves have ranged widely since the start of 2016: from as low as $ trillion on January 4, 2017, to as high as $ trillion on March 9, 2016.25 If the shifts in reserves are large enough, they can affect money market rates. In addition, changes in Federal Reserve balances of the Treasury and of foreign official accounts are often associated with offsetting shifts in other components of their cash management 5 / 13  BIS central bankers' speeches  programs. For example, recent shifts in the Treasury’s cash holdings have coincided with efforts to expand the issuance of Treasury bills, and foreign reserve holders might in some cases use the foreign repo pool as a substitute for Treasury bills.

(2009), “Back from the Brink”, http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/cea/BackFromTheBrink, speech given at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 24 September 2009. BIS Review 159/2009  5
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Islamic finance – new frontiers in financing the economy Keynote address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the EU-Malaysia Chambers of Commerce and Industry’s (EUMCCI) Quarterly Financial Panel Discussion 2012 “Islamic finance – new frontiers in financing the economy”, Kuala Lumpur, 8 March 2012. *  *  *  In this new phase of globalisation in which economies and financial systems are increasingly becoming more interconnected, we are seeing the emergence of several new trends in trade and investment flows. While there has been a slower expansion in world trade and investment flows in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, cross-border trade and investment activities among emerging economies have been increasing significantly. Asia is very much part of this changing pattern in world trade and investment activity. In Asia, strong domestic demand, supported by resilient financial systems and well developed financial markets have well intermediated these international flows. The most pressing challenge confronting the current global economy is to generate growth and employment. It is particularly important for the crisis-affected economies that growth resumes and is sustained, while addressing fiscal imbalances, public and private sector overindebtedness and the financial sector impairment, the solutions to which will most likely result in slower growth. While supportive domestic policies will thus be necessary to support the growth, also important is the potential growth that can be gained from trade and investment with other parts of the world.

Consequently, Switzerland – unlike other countries – was able to avoid introducing state-guaranteed bonds. With the drastic reduction in key rates and the subsequent decline in mortgage rates, the burden on households and companies was eased. In this way, the severity of the recession was somewhat alleviated and the risks of deflation reduced. However, the interest rate is now at a historic low and this means medium-term risks for the Swiss real estate market and financial stability. Experience shows that periods of low interest rates provide scope for excesses on the mortgage and real estate market. Consequently, in the current environment in particular, attention should be given to ensuring that past mistakes are not repeated. Caution must remain the watchword when granting loans. BIS Review 140/2009  1
There should be a clear division of labour between supervision and resolution. The fourth and last big open issue is how to finance the backstop for the single resolution fund as long as it is not sufficiently funded via levies from the banking sector. As mentioned before, I think the ESM including any non euro-area member states could provide a credit line to the resolution fund. That would guarantee a clear control over the resolution fund by the participating member states and their parliaments. A functioning banking union is in the best interest of Europe and it is in the best interest of Germany. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7

Rising trade tensions and the growing use of sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy have meant that the laws of the United States are increasingly being applied outside its jurisdiction. This takes the form of penalties for societies outside the United States and the prevention of access to the US payment system and is based on the central role played by the US financial system and the US dollar in global trade. Several European governments believe that this situation could be mitigated by increasing the international role of the euro. But if markets are to entertain the possibility of an enhanced role for the euro, we need to consider what the conditions are that underpin the dollar’s dominance. The list is long, but the fact that the dollar is an expression of an integrated capital market is certainly one of those conditions. [34] For the EU to meet that condition – which, at this stage of its development, is more achievable than others – would require a complex programme of legislative and institutional harmonisation, which however could be put in place in short order. 6 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  The second reason why an institutional approach can help produce better outcomes is that institutions and their actions can be subject to more clearly defined democratic control. Precisely because those institutions are invested with a mandate and defined powers, it is possible to make a more direct link between decisions and responsibility.
Following the dramatic 1990s in the USA (and Sweden), with soaring prices on shares and property, many people began to think that perhaps the central banks should keep an eye on asset prices and react to these, even if there were no sign of rising inflation. Overrated share prices and/or property prices lead sooner or later to an adjustment in asset prices. If this adjustment is dramatic, the effect could be an economic downturn, with rising unemployment and a slowdown in prices. The extreme valuing of certain shares in the IT and telecom sectors on the  2  BIS Review 39/2001  American stock exchange, Nasdaq, should perhaps have warranted more stringent monetary policy a few years ago, according to the international debate on monetary policy. One argument put forward as to why the central banks should not merely look to forecasts regarding consumer prices when making decisions on monetary policy, but should also monitor the development of asset prices, is that ownership of shares is much more widespread now. Thus, changes in asset prices probably have much greater significance for household expenditure now than they did before. Deregulation, liberalisation and globalisation have increased the importance of the capital markets for economic developments and made them more volatile. Assets with market prices now comprise a much greater share of households' balance sheets than before. This is thus claimed to be a good reason for monetary policy to take into account developments in asset prices.

This means that we are often forced to raise the rate, despite the fact that the inflation rate is below the target at the point in time when the decision is made. Conversely, interest rate reductions may be motivated even when the inflation rate is above the target level. As we all know, since the end of last year, the unexpectedly severe slowdown in the US economy has led to a downward revision in the assessment of Swedish production growth over the next two years. However, according to the assessment published by the Riksbank earlier, the most serious consequence of the slowdown will be that almost all of the resources within the Swedish economy will be occupied. If this is realised, one could say that the USA-led economic slowdown is, in a way, a welcome development in Sweden. The information on the Swedish and international economies that has been received in recent months does not give reason to change the assessment of the economic slowdown in Sweden. However, the signals are rather mixed and there is still considerable uncertainty. The downside risks with regard to international growth still remain. Despite the fact that growth has so far developed largely in line with our earlier assessments, price increases have been slightly greater than we had estimated. The krona has also continued to develop weakly. However, the wage agreements that have been signed so far appear to be in line with the earlier assessments.