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Rose’s (2009) more recent meta-analysis also finds a significant effect of trade on the synchronisation of business cycles. De Grauwe (2000) provides a discussion of how closer integration may affect the likelihood that countries experience asymmetric shocks. On the one hand closer trade links could result in greater specialisation, leaving currency union members more prone to asymmetric shocks. On the other, it could result in more intra-industry trade, increasing the likelihood that countries will experience similar shocks, and thereby helping to align business cycles. 17  4  A high degree of openness also means that the adjustment required to boost net exports is somewhat lower. A much weaker adjustment in prices and wages is necessary to raise net exports by a given share of GDP if both exports and imports are a large share of GDP than if they are a small share, Krugman (1992). However Adrian and Gros (2004) observe that open economies are correspondingly more vulnerable to external shocks. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Scotland and the rest of the UK are highly integrated. 70% of Scottish exports are destined for, and 74% of imports into Scotland come from, the rest of the UK (table 3). A word of caution applies here. There is a body of evidence that national borders can influence trade flows, even between otherwise highly integrated economies.18 The high degree of integration between Scotland and the rest of the UK may in part depend on their being part of the same sovereign nation.