samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
If the level of debt is high in the initial position and confidence in the economy is weak, it may be difficult for monetary policy to affect demand and inflation in this situation, which has been the case in Japan in recent years. Some analysts consider that both prices and production would develop in a more stable way over time if monetary policy counteracted exaggerated price increases in shares and other financial assets. It is said that it is not much more difficult to determine when share prices indicate unrealistic future increases in profit than it is to determine how quickly production in an economy can grow in the long term. And such assessments are of key importance to all monetary policy decision-makers. Others think that besides it being difficult to determine when asset prices are exaggerated, it is doubtful how large an effect an increase in interest prices would have. This is particularly the case with regard to share prices in small countries since the stock markets are so internationalised. Clarity and flexibility What I have discussed here shows that monetary policy decisions cannot be made on the basis of mechanical rules of action. The transmission mechanism is complicated and probably not stable over time either. Regardless of the monetary policy strategy adopted, monetary policy decisions must rest on uncertain assessments. This may relate to assessments of the output gap and the correlation between growth and production, the rate of circulation of the quantity of money and the effects of large increases in asset prices.

The emphasis here is not on the effect of the interest rate changes on demand for money, for instance, to be able to make payments for investments and consumption, but directly on the effect that the interest rate has on the real demand. The channels that enable the steering interest rate to have an effect on the output gap can be categorised in different ways: The most important channel is probably the interest rate channel. A change in the steering interest rate directly affects the shortest market rate. The banks can normally finance a deficit and invest a surplus at that rate. The shortest market rate and market expectations on future changes in the instrumental rate therefore constitute the alternative cost of the banks' financing or the alternative 1  The quantity theory: ,m*=y+p-v shows a demand function for money in the logarithmic form of M/P=1 (Y,i) where M is the volume of money, Y is the real GDP, i is the interest rate and V=Y(M/P) is the rate of circulation, i.e. the velocity. 2  BIS Review 40/2001  return on the bank's loans and holdings of securities. The banks' lending rate and the interest rate on securities are therefore affected by the actual and expected instrumental rate. Monetary policy thus also has a direct effect on the interest rates encountered by the general public. i. Investment and consumption decisions are affected directly by the interest channel.
Tarisa Watanagase: The global economy, policy challenges, and the role of the IMF Statement by Mrs Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Seventeenth Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), Washington DC, 12 April 2008. Mrs Watanagase is representing the constituency of Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Fiji, Indonesia, Lao P.D.R., Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Singapore, Thailand, Tonga, and Vietnam. *  *  *  1. We are meeting at a time of unprecedented challenges and risks. The financial turbulence that started last summer has gathered steam and spread across markets and economies. Global growth prospects for this year have indeed deteriorated markedly since the last IMFC meeting in October, owing to tightening credit conditions and continued deleveraging. The US growth outlook has been revised down sharply and growth in the other advanced economies is also much weaker. So far emerging markets have remained relatively resilient, but going forward, this will depend on the severity and length of the US slowdown. Much will also depend on the depth of the shock to the financial system, the breadth of spillovers across countries and markets, and the effectiveness of policy responses. 2. We note that while growth forecasts have been marked down significantly, there is no sense yet that a global recession is the most likely scenario.

Another crisis is inevitable – it is just a matter of time – and the Fund must stand ready to support its members when that happen. In this regard, the review of access limits and the development of crisis prevention instrument, such as the Rapid Access Line (RAL) and the Financial Stability Line (FSL), are critical and should be given priority. •  The third is in facilitating a global dialogue such as the IMFC meetings. It is probably wishful thinking to expect a large diverse group such as this to agree on policy coordination strategies. Nevertheless, even the more modest goal of learning from one another has great value by serving to deepen our understanding of the issues, which should not be underestimated. The Fund’s governance reform 9. In an increasingly integrated global economy, the distribution power within the Fund must adapt to reflect the growing weight of developing and emerging market economies in order to make the Fund more effective as an institution. Giving voice and ownership to member countries will increase the legitimacy and efficacy of the IMF. In this regard, we have indeed come a long way from where we started two years ago. We thus would like to thank the IMF Executive Board, management, and the staff for their dedication and hard work in delivering the current quota and voice reform package before us. 10. We welcome the flexibility and compromise shown by the members of the Executive Board in agreeing to the package we have at these Spring Meetings.
Jaime Caruana: Words of welcome - ECB Governing Council Dinner Speech by Mr Jaime Caruana, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, at the Governing Council Dinner on the occasion of the meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council, Madrid, 7 June 2006. *  *  *  It is a source of great satisfaction for me to welcome you to this dinner on the occasion of the meeting of the ECB Governing Council in Madrid. We are particularly honoured by the presence of the President of the Government and by that of the other authorities and personalities accompanying us today. As many of you are aware, this is the second time the Governing Council of the European Central Bank has met here. The first was in March 2000, a little more than one year after the start of Monetary Union, unquestionably the most visible feature of European construction. On that occasion, the euro area economy appeared set on a notably dynamic path with year-on-year growth exceeding 3% and the Spanish economy, in turn, was maintaining a sustained pace of expansion, benefiting from the favourable monetary and financial conditions and strong job creation. Against this backdrop, Spanish citizens could already perceive the favourable effects of our participation in the euro area and, therefore, the success of the economic policies applied during the convergence process.

In my remarks of a year ago, I mentioned that we are at a period of historic transition with regard to the development of the offshore RMB market. Looking at the development of the Eurodollar and offshore RMB markets side-by-side, as we just did, gives us a unique perspective on how things might play out in the long run. Indeed, as the offshore RMB market reaches maturity, there will no doubt be volumes of literature written by financial historians that compare the birth and development of these two markets. While developments so far have been encouraging, we are still at the initial phase of RMB offshore market development. The policy headroom to develop RMB business is already present, and we at the HKMA will continue to provide a safe and efficient financial infrastructure for the conduct of RMB offshore activities. But the most important of all, I would encourage businesses and financial institutions to make full use of such opportunities already available and promote the development of a wide range of RMB services and financial products. Forums like this one help us prepare for the future by examining what has transpired, making comparisons and exploring business opportunities and collaborative initiatives. I am eager to work together with all of you in shaping what is to come. Thank you. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
the Basel III finalisation package and the reforms contained in CRD V and CRR Il;    Making adjustments to the framework in response to new risks;    Making adjustments to the framework in response to unintended consequences. 13  For instance, a leverage ratio buffer for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) that is based on the level of the risk-weighted GSIB buffer. There are some differences between the Basel leverage ratio regime and the UK regime but the amounts of Tier 1 capital major UK banks need under each are broadly similar – see Box 3 in the June 2018 Financial Stability Report, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/financial-stability-report/2018/june2018.pdf?la=en&hash=9D057C7302B80EF57D634020F50C6F46D782904C. 14 See https://www.bis.org/press/p171207.htm. 15 See the letter from the Financial Stability Board chair to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, 18 March 2018, http://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P180318.pdf. 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  6  Remaining policy development  As mentioned, you should not expect a lot more reform. But there will be some further policy development to finish the job we started 10 years ago. For example, having implemented the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) back in 2015, we are polishing our Pillar 2 liquidity framework. This has not been adapted since the FSA introduced a new liquidity regime in 2010. Pillar 2 liquidity is intended to capture liquidity risks faced by banks that are not captured by the Pillar 1 LCR. Earlier this year we published a Statement of Policy on Pillar 2 liquidity.

Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus: Innovation in a disruptive era Remarks by Ms Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Malaysian Insurance Institute (MII) Summit "Innovation in a Disruptive Era", Kuala Lumpur, 28 September 2018. * * * I would like to congratulate the Malaysian Insurance Institute for organising this summit. This is my inaugural engagement with the industry and it gives me great pleasure to be able to address all of you today. In line with the theme of this conference, my remarks today will cover three things: 1. Firstly, the role of insurance within the context of key developments that are shaping our economy; 2. Secondly, how the Bank views and is responding to innovation in the insurance sector; and 3. Finally, some perspectives on our regulatory and supervisory focus moving forward. Role of insurance in an economy Insurance plays a core function in the modern economy and the financial system. There is a positive relationship between economic growth and insurance development. This is borne out by studies which have shown that more developed markets have a higher share of insurance in the economy. The role of insurance in the economy is worth restating, particularly given the economic and social challenges that we face today. A core purpose of insurance is providing protection against individual and business risks through risk transfer and pooling. This improves individual welfare, and supports consumption and investment activities.
Unfortunately, the final negotiations in the Doha round have once again been postponed, and a final agreement will probably not be signed until 2006 or 2007 at the earliest. Although the 147 member countries of the WTO took an important decision in principle regarding goals and rules for negotiations in the field of agriculture last summer, the contents are still incomplete. In other important areas, such as trade in services, the results were even less substantial. Europe and the United States can contribute in a very concrete way in the trade negotiations by reducing their own tariffs and subsidies, particularly in the industries where developing countries have their largest competitive advantages, such as agriculture, textiles and the steel industry. An example of the potential significance of the reforms is that a European cow receives an average of USD 2.50 a day in subsidies, while 75 per cent of Africa’s population are living on less than USD 2 a day.2 More free trade within these areas would lead to more poor people being integrated into the world economy, and would thus enable one of the major problems with the current system to be remedied. In addition, it would contribute to making the global distribution of labour more efficient, which would also benefit the industrialised world. However, when wealth reaches our levels, mobility in the labour market has tended to decline, at least in Western Europe.

So we need policies and principles that stand in the way of its weakening the resilience of the system, while allowing enterprise and our capital markets to flourish. 15  See the Bank’s recently published paper: “The role of macroprudential policy: A discussion paper” and Tucker P M W (2009e), “The debate on financial system resilience: Macroprudential instruments” at the Barclays Annual Lecture in London. 8  BIS Review 6/2010
*  *  *  The banking system supervision function is another important aspect of central bank duties. 3. Banking supervision and financial stability  Year 2010 was characterised by increases banking system activity, improved banking soundness and profitability indicators, as well as a good capitalisation of the system. On the other hand, the banking system was characterised by increase in non-performing loan portfolio, reflecting also the active policy of the Bank of Albania in terms of enhancing the transparency of bank balance sheets. Banking system development The banking sector continues to remain the main actor of financial intermediation in Albania. At end-2010, banking system assets doubled compared to a year earlier, accounting for about 81% of GDP. The banking system continued to be financed mainly by public deposits and focused on lending to the private sector. On the other hand, the economy’s below-potential growth and the depreciated exchange rate contributed to increasing non-performing loans, to 14% of total loans. However, this indicator’s growth rates decelerated in 2010. Capital adequacy ratio remained at satisfactory levels, to 15.4%, obviously higher than the 12% benchmark set forth under the regulatory framework. The system’s shareholder equity increased by 10% in 2010. Credit risk remains the main risk to the banking sector. In response to this risk, the banking sector has created adequate provisions to weather big shocks to borrowers’ solvency and market equilibria.

We definitely have a lot to learn from Malaysia in respect of product development and market operation. As I see it, Hong Kong and Malaysia each has different edges in the financial services industry, and the potential synergy between the two places in developing the Islamic financial markets is tremendous. 10. Malaysia is undoubtedly an important leading centre in the global Islamic finance industry that has accumulated vast experiences and invaluable expertise over the past three decades. It has developed a well-diversified Islamic financial market, offering a full suite of products covering sukuk, Islamic equities, Islamic funds, Islamic ETFs, etc. Its sukuk market is by far the largest in the world, accounting for more than 70% of global sukuk issuances last year.4 It has also put in place well-developed financial infrastructure which can facilitate local and overseas market players alike in conducting Islamic financial transactions. 11. On the other hand, Hong Kong as an international financial centre has developed a deep and highly liquid capital market with a diverse base of investors coming from all around the world. More importantly, with Hong Kong’s unique role as a gateway to Mainland China and a leading hub for offshore RMB business, Hong Kong can offer an ideal platform to link Islamic and RMB financing together by developing financial products that are Shariah-  4  2  Zawya. BIS central bankers’ speeches  compliant and, at the same time, denominated in RMB.
In 2006, the name was changed to the Government Pension Fund – Global. In spite of the name change, the Fund is more similar to an endowment than to a pension fund. Since the first transfer of some USD 400 million was made in 1996, the Fund has grown rapidly in size. Its assets are currently valued at around USD 400 billion. One third of the portfolio, about USD 130 billion is invested here in North America. The Fund is expected to grow rapidly in coming years, and may double in 5-10 years. The Fund was established as a tool to support prudent management of Norway’s petroleum wealth. One purpose is to shield the non-oil economy from price fluctuations (see Chart 3). The Fund is also a long-term savings instrument. It will help to cope with future financial commitments linked to an ageing population. Accumulation of capital in the Fund reflects the depletion of a non-renewable resource, which is exchanged for financial assets through the Fund’s investments. By setting up the Fund, it became possible to establish a path for production of oil and gas that is independent of the profile for petroleum revenue spending. Furthermore, to effectively shield the non-oil economy, and to make sure that private sector investment decisions could be made independently of the public sector’s saving of petroleum wealth, the Fund is only invested abroad. This also enhances the expected return on government wealth and reduces the risk.

The simplification will contribute to the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism by enabling a more reliable assessment of the monetary policy stance. In this context, we mostly achieved our targeted gains. We are planning to finalize the monetary policy simplification within a reasonable schedule. I also would like to add that the direction and timing of the next step towards simplification will depend on the developments affecting the inflation outlook and financial stability. As CBRT, our main funding has continued to be provided via one-week repo auctions, while the 2 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  share of our marginal funding decreased (Chart 4). Our weighted average funding rate dropped to around 7.8 percent in October. Interbank overnight repo rates remained on the decline in line with the reductions in the upper band of the interest rate corridor. I would like to underline that our monetary policy stance will continue to depend on the inflation outlook in the upcoming period. As CBRT, we will maintain our cautious monetary policy stance by taking into account the developments regarding inflation expectations, the pricing behavior and other factors affecting inflation. Amid continued expectations for a prolonged low interest rate environment across advanced economies as well as the favorable course of domestic macroeconomic indicators and monetary policy simplification, the yield curve shifted downwards in all maturities from the previous reporting period, as shown on the slide (Chart 5). The fall was more pronounced in short-term interest rates due to the decline in our funding rate.
I do not have the answers for all of them but I believe these questions are important and relevant for us to address today and in days ahead. What I can tell you definitively is that the work on the integrated policy framework (IPF) is highly important as the environment that ASEAN policymakers are navigating through becomes increasingly challenging. On this note, I look forward to an engaging and fruitful discussion today. To my ASEAN colleagues, let us use this opportunity to share our views and experiences with the IMF. To our IMF colleagues, it is my hope that you will consider these views and continue to engage with regional policymakers as you work towards finalising the work on the IPF. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

Their take is that independent central banks are merely a troublesome relict and that monetary policy should largely be determined by the government’s financing needs. But experience from throughout history shows that this would, sooner or later, end in an economic policy fiasco. As you can see, the positions are far apart, with diametrically opposed interpretations of facts. The aim of my speech is to provide some clarity from the perspective of Switzerland’s central bank. To this end, I will set out some fundamental thoughts on the properties of sound money and the various types of money. I will then address the question as to whether, against the backdrop of our current monetary policy, the Swiss franc can still be described as sound money. Page 2/8  Sound money is stable money But let us first take a step back and look at money as a concept. Money is a generally accepted medium of exchange, and performs two other important functions, namely as a unit of account and as a store of value. As a unit of account, money serves to make economic transactions comparable. In this function, it is also used for representing the nominal value of all kinds of claims and liabilities. As a unit of account for determining value, money plays a prominent role in virtually all walks of life – from the workplace to healthcare and pension provision.