samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But in the current crisis, which has no precedents in many decades, to look at simple correlations based on normal periods can be very misleading. From my standpoint, it is more important to conceptualize what is happening today, in order to analyze the prospects of the economy and draw policy conclusions. To address this subject I will use some basic economics that will allow us to understand the synchrony and severity of the current crisis. These arguments have been present for many years in the profession and have gained enormous importance today. The first refers to the existence of multiple equilibria and the effect of failed coordination. The second deals with the effect of uncertainty on economic decision making. These two elements help us understand how the confidence crisis that swept the world aggravated the output contraction, hitting hardest the demand for industrial goods. In the next section I will describe the main  BIS Review 76/2009  1  ideas that clarify the impact of the confidence crisis, and then analyze the international scenario in the following section. Some basic ideas The objective here is to account for the basic ideas behind the coordination failures, multiple equilibria and how uncertainty affects aggregate demand. Coordination failures Let us assume a very simple economy 1 with a large number of consumers. Each consumer demands D units of a manufactured good, which we can think of as a durable good (e.g., car, house, appliance, electronic device).

The second example relates to senior individuals in firms. Earlier this month we introduced the new Senior Managers Regime. The aim of this regime is to establish clear responsibilities for senior managers, including chairs of Board Committees. This is not to create new responsibilities, but rather to be clear on what those responsibilities are, and then to supervise to hold individuals to those responsibilities. In the previous regime, we had too many examples of individuals shirking their responsibilities. My strong view is that senior figures cannot delegate responsibilities. We will then direct our supervision to support this new regime operating effectively. The third example concerns the supervision of governance, executive and Board level. We are in the process of revamping our approach here, recognising that too many problems of the past have had their roots in ineffective governance. This is probably the prime area where supervision is distinct from regulation, because there is very little regulation, rightly so. Supervising governance is inherently a matter of judgement based on evidence. So, to conclude, we should devote more time to discussing the skill of supervision. It has at its heart the understanding of risk. And, we should devote more time to developing supervisors and value then for the skill that they need to do the job well. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Mr. Clementi explains how London’s banks and markets will help to forge links between the euro area and the rest of the world Speech by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Mr. David Clementi, before international bankers and members of international organisations in New York on 10/2/98. Despite all the uncertainties of the last few years, I think that it is now well understood that the euro is going to be introduced on 1 January 1999. As you all know, the United Kingdom is not going to adopt the euro as its domestic currency from the start. But the euro is likely to become the core currency for the European wholesale markets in London. The City of London is Europe’s leading financial centre; and the introduction of a major new currency on the Continent of Europe means that London must have all the necessary trading, payment and settlement infrastructure, and be fully part of the conversion. London will be ready for the euro. What I want to do today is to explain - with my colleague, John Townend, and Sir David Walker, head of Morgan Stanley in Europe - how London’s banks and markets will help to forge links between the euro area and the rest of the world. And we also want to discuss the broader question of how the euro will affect the European financial landscape. We hope that EMU will be a success. The British Government is in favour of joining EMU in principle.

It has made it clear that it sees no constitutional bar to British membership. There are advantages. For example, the introduction of the single European currency will help to complete the Single European Market. And the uncertainty associated with investment decisions within the euro area will be reduced. Europe will continue its consolidation as a major trading bloc. And financial benefits should flow from the introduction of the euro as a major currency for financing. The tradeable government debt of the EU as a bloc, for example, amounts to around 2.6 trillion dollars equivalent, compared to 2.1 trillion here in the US. This will give the euro debt markets a broadly similar size and liquidity as hitherto has been the preserve of the dollar markets. But there are also risks. For example, will the UK economy be able to live comfortably with euro interest rates on a permanent basis? And if problems emerge after EMU begins, will a ‘one-size-fits-all’ monetary policy be adequate to deal with them, particularly if there is insufficient flexibility in product markets and labour markets? A particular concern is the high rates of unemployment in some Continental European countries, and the differing rates between them. The British Government has set a number of economic tests to ensure that, before the UK joins EMU, there will be sustainable convergence between the UK economy and the euro area.
The USA's increase in growth in the 1990s was partly due to the US economy being internationalised more rapidly than before, with a larger percentage of GDP exposed to international competition than the EU. If eastern Europe is now integrated more closely with western Europe, this could create a more efficient division of labour and raise productivity in western Europe. The challenge of EU enlargement eastwards could rouse decision-makers in western Europe to a more intensive reform effort so they can fully take advantage of what will, in total, be the world's single largest market. There are parallels here to Japan's success story in the 1970s and 1980s, when Japanese industry, which had not yet subsided into its own structural problems, benefited from the interplay with the dynamic Asian economies that complemented the Japanese companies. Just as the dynamic Asian economies additionally formed a bridge to China, the candidate countries comprise a bridge to Russia (particularly the St Petersburg  2  BIS Review 9/2002  region where Sweden is concerned), the Ukraine and the other CIS countries – areas that should also become a growing part of the EU's trading sphere. Moreover, unlike many dynamic Asian economies, the candidate countries' populations have always had a very high level of education; in science and technology it is fully comparable with the level in the current EU member countries.

So to round off: Norway and Sweden have followed one another through the centuries, in war and peace, through crises and growth. And we can be thankful that we have succeeded in moving from poverty to wealth and becoming two of the world’s wealthiest nations. Often the central banks have been able to contribute to higher welfare, but sometimes monetary policy has unfortunately been destabilizing. Our joint history is continuing, we have common challenges to face going for-ward. Higher capital and labour mobility throughout the world opens new possibilities to raise welfare even further, but globalisation also require that we try to find common strategies across countries. We can also enjoy our similarities and continue teasing one another when we meet on the sports field. As Sweden now follows its team in Euro 2016, we can’t help but ask, oh where’s Norway? But on the other hand we can expect a lot of teasing from you in the next world cup ski event! BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
But on this, we need to be clear that the strength of the dollar is a global phenomenon – not just a Malaysian one. In fact, the US dollar is now at a two decade high[1] due to aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve which increased its policy rate by 300 bps this year. Risk-off sentiments arising from geopolitical conflict and a moderating global growth outlook have further increased demand for dollar assets. 14. Like most countries in the world and around this region, the ringgit has not been spared. The currencies of other major economies have also depreciated against the US dollar. If we also look at how the ringgit has fared against the currencies of our trading partners, it has appreciated against some and depreciated against others. In fact, the performance of the ringgit, if weighed against the currencies of Malaysia’s trading partners have been relatively stable. This underlines the point that we are in an environment of US dollar strength. 15. It is also important to emphasise that the ringgit’s performance against the US dollar alone is not a reflection of the state of the economy. The exchange rate is only one indicator among many. Like I said at the start, it is important to consider the strength and positive performance of the Malaysian economy. Growth is robust, the labour market is healthy and the financial system is resilient and continues to perform its role effectively.

d. Fourth, to position the financial system to facilitate an orderly transition to a greener economy. e. Fifth, to advance value-based finance through Islamic finance leadership. 31. These aspirations paint a picture of a dynamic and vibrant future. That is indeed what we hope and strive for. We ought to be excited about the prospects and possibilities of the future – but we must ensure it is built upon a bedrock of resilience, so that whatever progress we secure is not short-lived. 32. For the financial sector, decades of continuous effort to strengthen the financial system – be it to build buffers or to implement measures to deepen and develop our financial sector – has been crucial to ensure that it can support economic growth. In the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis, the comprehensive reforms of the banking sector resulted in more robust and well managed institutions. This in turn supported a more resilient banking sector and enabled banks to achieve greater scale to serve the broadening needs of a diversifying economy and expansion in the region. We also advanced strategies to deepen our bond markets, to be a stable and alternative source of funding for the economy. 33. I can remember how tough it was to push those reforms though, and to get them done but those efforts meant that when the GFC happened, Malaysia’s financial sector was in a strong position to withstand the shock.
Thomas Jordan: Swiss National Bank’s assessment of the economic situation Introductory remarks by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the media news conference of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 19 June 2014. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen Welcome to the Swiss National Bank’s six-monthly news conference. As usual, I will begin by explaining the monetary policy decision and outlining our assessment of the economic situation. Afterwards, Jean-Pierre Danthine will present our latest Financial Stability Report, before Fritz Zurbrügg comments on current developments in the financial markets. Following our introductory remarks, we will be pleased to answer any questions you might have. Monetary policy decision I will begin with the monetary policy decision. The SNB is maintaining its minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro. The target range for the three-month Libor will remain unchanged at 0.0–0.25%. The Swiss franc is still high. We will therefore continue to enforce the minimum exchange rate with the utmost determination. If necessary, we are prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities for this purpose. With interest rates close to zero, the minimum exchange rate is the right tool to avoid an undesirable tightening of monetary conditions. This applies especially if the upward pressure on the Swiss franc were to intensify once again. And, if required, we are also willing to take further measures. Our new conditional inflation forecast shows that inflationary pressure has receded once more in the medium term.

In recent years, in the developed countries, but also in a number of developing countries, the financial regulators have established and implemented various initiatives (innovation facilitators) aimed at promoting the use of financial innovation in different segments of the financial system. Given the importance of the issue and responding to the rising challenges, our central bank has recently established an Innovation Hub – a small expert group of the central bank, dedicated to closely monitoring and supporting fintech developments. The scope of work of the Hub is directly related to the mandate of modern central banks in the field of maintaining financial stability and monitoring systemic risks. This body will support National Bank’s efforts to deepen the financial inclusion, contribute to consumer protection and to providing operational and legal certainty in the financial markets infrastructure. We strongly believe that the Hub will be a central point of contact with the industry, including the fintech firms, and will enable building internal capacities for adequate implementation of the new technologies and monitoring of the associated risks, as well as serve as a platform for sharing information and discussing best practices. Finally, the Innovation Hub will also bring the prospect of using digitalization for supervisory purposes, as a complement to our current supervisory methods, principles, and judgement. Suptech is becoming synonym for exploring new technologies, especially in the area of supervisory data collection and analysis.
And we are therefore particularly active in this regard through a variety of initiatives that have been made possible by innovative tools that the Bank decided to set up in the recent years: - Le Lab, our innovation centre opened in June 2017, which gives Banque de France teams a support for thinking “out of the box” and imagining their business; - The ACPR Fintech-Innovation Unit, which facilitates the relationship between Fintechs and the Authority, especially with respect to the authorisation process, and studies in particular new challenges to financial regulators and supervisors that arise from innovations; A recently appointed start-up contact person [Maurice Oms], and in the coming weeks, a network of start-up correspondents in the regional French Tech capitals, which will help liaise with the start-up ecosystem. Lastly, I wish to mention the creation of the BIS Innovation Hub, with a triple mission of studying critical trends in financial technology, exploring the development of solutions that could enhance the functioning of the financial system, and mobilising central banks on innovation issues. The Eurosystem has decided to be part of this journey, with two innovation centres in Paris and Frankfurt. All these new and innovative tools enable the Banque de France to actively experiment new 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  technologies, with a view to identifying both the opportunities and the risks they may bring. It would take too much time for me to elaborate on all our experiments in the fields of Datascience and AI, blockchain, cyber security, etc.

With regard to these risks, I think it is appropriate for the Commission to address the complex but currently unavoidable issue of the oversight framework to be applied to critical IT service providers, including cloud service providers, and the equally important matter of the supervision of issuers and distributors of stablecoins, whether they be single or multicurrency coins. The pilote regime, which is intended to allow market trading facilities and central securities depositories to be exempted, for a period up to six years, from specific existing rules listed in the regulation, in order to trade, settle and register crypto-assets on distributed ledger technology might also invite central  banks to examine the conditions under which they could make available their own settlement asset, central bank money, beyond the inner circle of banks. 2- Adapting the regulatory framework will not be enough to keep up with the pace of innovation. At  the Banque de France, we consider it necessary to be a useful player in the innovation ecosystem, in pursuing two objectives: facilitate and experiment.
The timing and severity of these enforcement steps will not be easy to gauge, and I hope that the Basle Committee’s Year 2000 efforts will provide some guidance for supervisors on the issues involved in making these choices. A key concern that I would have today about an organization is whether its senior management truly understands the scope of the Year 2000 problem and the need to tackle it as a critical management challenge and not simply as a technical issue. If appreciation of the problem is lacking at the upper levels of an organization, experience suggests that the lack of concern will filter through to the entire organization, with potentially devastating results. Testing Of the many different elements of a sound Year 2000 project plan, perhaps none is more crucial than testing. In that regard, I will now turn to some of the most important issues related to Year 2000 testing. As a first step, it is important to distinguish the different types of testing and test programs that are in place or being developed. The Joint Year 2000 Council’s recently published paper, “Testing for Year 2000 Readiness” contains a valuable discussion of these different types of tests. Internal tests are those over which the testing institution has full control and in which external parties are not directly involved. Firms that have engaged in multiple types of tests have reported that the internal future date testing phase was the most important in terms of uncovering remaining Year 2000 problems.

Some information can in fact be downright misleading. For example, a firm may engage in internal testing and locate a number of Year 2000-related problems in its systems. Of course, it is the process of this testing that will enable the firm to locate and overcome these problems. Thus, disclosing its internal test results in isolation could give a false impression of its readiness. In general, comprehensive self-disclosure in written form, supplemented by a willingness to answer specific questions, is proving to be the most effective way of sharing information. Another issue that often comes up in this context is the question of certification. External parties, whether auditors or examiners, cannot realistically certify Year 2000 compliance. The best that they can do is focus on the effectiveness of the process that the organization has established. Oversight by these third parties should not be seen as a substitute for an organization’s own due diligence, an area in which internal audit departments have traditionally played a leading role. Internal auditors also could be useful in helping firms develop their Year 2000 disclosures. Another concern is the existence of possible legal obstacles that may stand in the way of Year 2000 information sharing. In the United States, several efforts have been made to limit or remove these obstacles, and such efforts may be needed in other countries as well. For example, a ruling was issued by our Justice Department limiting the extent to which Year 2000 information sharing could be viewed as a violation of antitrust laws.
Lawrence Williams: Leveraging central banks’ IT investments for strategic advantage Opening remarks by Mr Lawrence Williams, Governor of the Bank of Guyana, at the conference of regional central banks’ information systems specialists, Bank of Guyana, Georgetown, 4 June 2012. *  *  *  Chairman Deputy Governor Banking Manager Deputy Programme Manager, Information and Communication Technology, CARICOM Secretariat Conference Delegates Directors and other Staff members of the Bank of Guyana Invitees I wish to join with the Chairman in welcoming you to this opening session of the Conference of Regional Central Banks’ Information Systems Specialists. A warm welcome is extended to those of you visiting Guyana and more so to those of you visiting for the first time. A special welcome is also extended to Ms. Jennifer Britton who has taken time off her demanding schedule to present the Conference Keynote Address. The Bank of Guyana deems it a privilege to be hosting the Conference of Regional Central Banks’ Information Systems Specialists for the second time in the history of the Group. We are grateful for the fact that nine central banks accepted our invitation to participate in this conference. I thank you for graciously accepting our invitation. It is my fervent hope that the activities over the next five days will provide a good opportunity to engage in the sharing of ideas and experiences, as well as to gain new insights that would be beneficial to the wellbeing of your respective information technology functions in particular and, by extension, the institutions you represent.

This includes regular press conferences by the Fed chair following FOMC meetings; the publishing of growth, inflation and short-term rate forecasts of FOMC participants; and a concerted attempt to lay out the guideposts that the FOMC will look at to assess progress toward our mandate. We are, though, still learning how to more effectively communicate, especially given our new and expanded set of policy instruments. A second area in which we can and must collectively do better is safeguarding global financial stability. Simply put, we failed to act both early enough and decisively enough to stem the credit excesses that spawned the financial crisis and the Great Recession. While the U.S. was not alone in this shortcoming, given our position in the global financial system we especially should have done a better job. We’ve taken important steps through new legislative mandates and a broader effort to rethink our regulatory and supervisory framework. In particular, systemically important banking organizations must now hold higher amounts of capital and liquidity that are better aligned with their risk profiles and the official sector is making progress in ensuring no financial firm will be too-big-to-fail. Although this remains very much a work in progress, these efforts should help us to avoid repeating the mistakes of the recent past, and enable us to be more proactive in mitigating potential future vulnerabilities. Of course, we at the Fed are not alone here.