samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Then consumers would have nowhere to hide from negative rates, if they do not want to leave their local currency entirely If the central bank guaranteed the anonymity of transactions conducted in the new digital currency (Nobody knows if this is possible), it would behave much like cash – with the significant possibility of a non-zero interest rate charged on balances deposited in it. By the way, I do not think it is a good idea to push forward the concept of central bank digital currency just as a response to the fall in the use of cash in society. As I noted earlier, households already have access to a digital currency: they can deposit their cash on accounts at commercial banks. If a central bank starts to compete with commercial banks in this arena, it may stop the fall in seigniorage revenues, but of course at the expense of the profitability or even the very stability of the banking sector. Even worse, such “safe haven” digital currency accounts at the central bank available to all citizens would probably guarantee a “digital bank run” in any crisis – although deposits at commercial banks are fully insured, accounts at central banks, if no cap is set, will always be seen as safer.

Indeed, in our current system, bank deposits are essentially an existing “digital currency” that we all use. What some central bankers have in mind, however, is a more substantive change. But it seems to me that the need for this change is often expressed quite vaguely. What problems of the current monetary system, and especially what challenges to monetary policy, should central bank digital currencies address? And how should these digital currencies be designed if they are to be useful in practice? These are other topics of my talk today. The big problem of the current monetary policy framework is the effective lower bound on interest rates. The underlying neutral rate of interest has probably started to rise recently, but it will hardly reach the levels we were used to in the 1980s and 1990s anytime soon. In other words, during the next recession all major central banks will hit the effective lower bound again. How could a digital currency help? One thing a digital currency can enable is the possibility of deeply negative interest rates. I am not a fan of negative rates at all, but of course one can imagine a scenario in which some central banks replace cash with a digital currency.
By the same token, none of this means that, over the medium term, economic risk won’t continue to affect consumers’ appetite for spending, as it’s always tended to in the past. If rates of unemployment were to remain relatively high even two or three years from now, it’s likely the saving rate will also be above average. But I do think it’s these more conventional factors – economic risk rather than pandemic risk – that we should have in mind when thinking about what might happen to saving and consumption over the medium term. 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  10  Indeed I think this would be true even without taking into account the likely improvements in health treatments (the new vaccines, for example). The consequences for supply and costs  A market economy is a dynamic place. Adapting to economic conditions, meeting changes in consumer tastes and adopting new production methods – this is what it’s meant to do. And underneath the macroeconomic surface, there is always a significant degree of churn of this sort. Even in normal times jobs are destroyed and created all the time, buildings re-purposed and new techniques learned. Most of the time, as macro-economists, we can safely ignore these things (we certainly tend to). We assume that aggregate quantities are determined only by other aggregates – potential output depends only on total capital and labour, for example, and inflation only on some whole-economy version of spare capacity.

With these elements in place, comparability should be greatly enhanced. Moreover, unlike Basel I, the new Accord allows for the evolution of bank practice over time by building on the core elements of a bank’s internal methodologies - methodologies that are expected to continue to improve, particularly with supervisory and market encouragement. Basel II: Risk management improvements The second, and perhaps more significant, benefit I mentioned is the encouragement to improvements in bank risk management practices. Basel II has always had this objective in mind in addition to creating a stronger, more risk sensitive measure of bank capital. We are clearly already seeing this objective being realized. Basel II builds on risk measurement concepts that have emerged in the industry, although clearly the application of these leading practices varies within and across firms. There has been enormous progress as banks commit to programs that will bring their systems and practices into alignment with the standards articulated in Basel II. 2  BIS Review 35/2005  As I have emphasized, a major focus of our supervisory activities has been on ensuring that banks are actively engaged in advancing the linkage of quantified risk-taking to capital, as this is at the heart of both sound banking and Basel II. Let me offer some specific examples, beginning with credit risk and then turning to operational risk. An example can certainly be seen in the management of retail exposures.
The analyses made of why inflation has been so low in recent years indicate that it is primarily unexpectedly high and lasting growth in productivity that is the explanation and not contractionary monetary policy. 2 One factor that supports this conclusion is that inflation has been low despite demand and growth in the economy being relatively high. But the higher labour productivity has meant that companies have been able to increase their production without needing to raise their prices so much. It would also appear that it has contributed to companies being able to increase production without needing to recruit new staff to a great extent. This may be an explanation to what is referred to in the debate as “jobless growth”. The high productivity growth has also contributed to the Riksbank being able to cut the interest rate to a historically low level. My conclusion is therefore that we have first and foremost overestimated inflation because we have underestimated the strength of productivity growth. Giavazzi and Mishkin observed in their evaluation of monetary policy that this has also applied to most other forecasters. We have therefore not overestimated inflation because we have failed to take into account developments in the labour market. Nor is it because our monetary policy decisions have been unreasonable. This was also noted by Giavazzi and Mishkin in their evaluation. Nevertheless, there is of course reason for the Riksbank to be self-critical. We must become better at understanding the driving forces behind productivity growth.

Both of these will mean healthy demand for a range of financial services. Financial regulation has become tougher across the board. And as a regulator I say this for good reason. But from a competitive position, our financial institutions are well-placed because of their larger buffers they built up and more prudent risk management practices they adopted. Technology will disrupt existing value chains in financial services. But it will also open up new avenues of growth. It will intensify competition from non-bank players and non-financial institutions, but also create new pathways for our financial institutions to access markets that were previously difficult to reach. While the prospects for the financial sector are good, the outcome is by no means certain. There is much that we need to do – together – to realise the potential and secure a good outcome. Next month, MAS will announce details of the Industry Transformation Map for financial services. I will not give away the details here, but I can say that building up skills, competencies, and deep expertise is a critical part of the effort. If we want to transform the industry, we must start by transforming our human capital. Setting competency standards and certifying the programmes to achieve these standards are IBF’s raison d’etre. Empowering our finance professionals with the requisite skills and preparing them to take on the jobs of the future is at the heart of everything that IBF does. I am therefore pleased to announce the launch of the IBF Standards for Future-Enabled Skills.
Evolution of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Sri Lanka and the Way Forward by  Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe1 Senior Deputy Governor Central Bank of Sri Lanka  I am deeply honoured to have been invited to deliver the Olcott Oration 2017 and to join a list of great Anandians who have delivered this Oration before. I cannot think of a greater honour that my school could confer on me. I accepted this invitation with humbleness, with gratitude and respect, and with great pride. Let me also take this opportunity to appreciate the support and guidance I received during my school career at Ananda College. The guidance our teachers gave us laid the foundation for any success later on in our lives. My oration today, is on the rather technical topic of monetary and exchange rate policy. The biggest challenge that I have to face is to present such a topic to an audience with a majority who might not be familiar with the technical jargon involved. However, I will attempt to keep the discussion as simple as possible. Central Banking and Price Stability The prime responsibility of any central bank around the world is to maintain price stability by way of maintaining low and stable inflation on a sustainable basis. At the outset, I would like to discuss why low and stable inflation is important for growth and stability of the economy. Based on experiences of many countries and different time periods, we have seen varying levels of inflation.

Since inflation is well understood by the public, the inflation forecast will serve as an ideal anchor and, with improved communication, will help bridge the information gap between the central bank and the public. Reference to such a straightforward target, rather than to an elusive monetary target, will ensure increased transparency and accountability while enabling the public to understand policy shortcomings. Global experience has also shown that in adopting inflation targeting, a country needs to fulfill several prerequisites, particularly in terms of the legal and institutional framework. These include central bank independence and strong mandate for price stability, strong fiscal position with freedom from fiscal dominance, a flexible exchange rate regime, a well-developed financial system, a sound technical infrastructure for inflation forecasting, and transparent policies to build accountability and credibility of the central bank. In particular, with regard to fiscal dominance, other countries had developed mechanisms to stop monetary financing of fiscal deficits, particularly through subscribing to government securities auctions and the provision of interest free funds to the government through an advance account as observed in Sri Lanka. Instead, other central banks would purchase government securities from the secondary market to influence monetary conditions as and when necessary. Road to Flexible Inflation Targeting: Where We Stand Considering the success of flexible inflation targeting in advanced and emerging markets, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka also considered this as the best framework to be adopted in the medium-term.
Chart 14 Strong growth in public demand. Public consumption and investment. Share of mainland GDP. Four-quarter moving average. Percent 36  36  35  35  34  34  33  33  32  32  31  31  30  30  29  29  28 1990  1995  2000  2005  2010  2015  28 2020  Source: Statistics Norway  14  The main responsibility for restructuring rests with the business sector. The recent years’ improvement in cost competiveness is a good starting point for stimulating growth in new activities (Chart 15). In combination with moderate wage settlements, the krone depreciation has made it cheaper for foreigners to buy goods and services from Norway. At the same time, higher import prices have given Norwegian customers an incentive to shift demand towards domestic producers. Thanks to inflation targeting and a floating exchange rate, cost adjustment took place much faster than would otherwise have been the case. NORGES BANK ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 13 FEBRUARY 2020  Chart 15 Is Norway competitive enough? Labour costs.1) Index. 2013=100. Trade deficit. Share of mainland GDP. Percent 120 13 12  Trade deficit excluding oil and gas (l.h.s.) Labour costs in a common currency (r.h.s.)

9  STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND NEW CHALLENGES  NORGES BANK  We have always know that activity on the Norwegian shelf would eventually decline. After a half-century of oil production, about half of estimated total reserves have been extracted.3 About half of what remains has not yet been discovered. In recent years, known oil resources have shown little increase (Chart 10). There is also the question of how much of what remains would be profitable to extract. ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 13 FEBRUARY 2020  Chart 10 Fewer large discoveries. Reserve growth. In millions of scm of oil equivalents 1800  1800  1600  1600  1400  1400  1200  1200  1000  1000  800  800  600  600  400  400  200  200 0  0 1967  1974  1981  1988  1995  2002  2009  2016  Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate  The offshore oil industry features investments that generate income for a long time ahead. For many fields, the exploratory, development and production phases span several decades. The Johan Sverdrup field, where production recently started, will according to plan remain in production for at least 40 years. Exploration and field development decisions have always been based on estimated futures prices for oil and gas. Uncertainty linked to future profitability has also been a key factor. Today, global climate challenges add to that uncertainty. More and more people are waking up to the gravity of climate change.
Adjustment of the imbalances in the economy is vital in order to soundly underpin medium and long-term growth, although in the short run, balance-sheet write-downs in the general government sector, at credit institutions and in households and firms may check any take-off in spending. Fortunately, the sluggishness of domestic demand is being offset by the buoyancy of external demand. The thrust of exports has been substantial and should continue to be so, whereby attaining further gains in competitiveness will be vital. This is the key variable for making the adjustment of the imbalances compatible with the firming of a more dynamic recovery. If this combination of adjustment and growth were to successfully take root, the Spanish economy could see private-sector deleveraging, the stabilising of public finances and the restructuring of the banking system lead to an increase in confidence, softer financial conditions and, in sum, an improved economic outlook that would boost investment and employment. The role of economic policy remains pivotal for steering the adjustment process. In the case of fiscal policy, the measures adopted last spring marked the starting point. But substantial challenges lie ahead and determination will be required to define and specify the measures that allow public finances to resume a stable path. In the short run, the deficit target for 2011 is ambitious, as it entails a reduction of more than 3 pp of GDP to 6%. But, at the same time, compliance is crucial in view of the financial markets’ extreme sensitivity to the course of public finances.

I am further informed that ATI has so far this year supported Zambian companies and businesses by offering insurance cover to some very large and essential projects primarily in the energy, mining, manufacturing and agriculture sectors valued at over $ million. The Agency has also continued to assist many African countries by facilitating foreign direct investments with its political risk insurance that protects investors. Ladies and Gentlemen, the role that trade plays in the economic growth and development of a Country cannot be emphasised. There are many regions and countries of the world that have been able to lift their peoples from poverty to prosperity through trade. However, although Africa in general and Zambia in particular has an economy which is characterized by a relatively high degree of openness, trade has not been utilized to an extent of achieving rapid and sustainable economic development necessary to eliminate poverty. This failure for trade to serve as a catalyst for sustainable economic development could be attributed in part to the nature of Africa’s export trade which is heavily concentrated on primary commodities that are characterized by relatively slow growth, price instability and long‐term deterioration of terms of trade. The need for African countries and Zambia in particular to participate in the dynamic sectors of global trade such as manufactures and services cannot be over-emphasised.
A good guess seems to be that the shorter the interval before participation, the quicker will be the changeover to euro. The world will not be the same The creation of a monetary union just outside Sweden's borders will change the world as we know it. Individuals and firms will both be affected by the euro's introduction whether we participate or not. In our efforts to keep the financial sector informed about EMU we can see that good progress has been made with the preparations. Among those concerned we also experience a strong desire to participate as early as possible so as not to get left behind. Swedish banks and other companies want to have a chance of competing on equal terms and do not wish to risk losing business opportunities. Finally I therefore wish to underscore that saying no to the single currency is not the same as status quo. As I said, the euro's introduction will affect us all, whether or not we participate. EMU will probably accelerate the globalisation, concentration and integration of the world's financial markets. It is therefore of the utmost importance that we all do what we can to find out more about these complex matters. BIS Review 41/1997

The banks’ Denar credits increased by Denar 7,463 million, or by 27.8%. The increase was primarily due to the abolishment of the credit limits of the banks’ Denar placements at the end of March 2000, which was a period of significant credit expansion. It should be underlined that according to the supervisory examinations of the NBRM, the newly extended credits are granted to good clients. In December 2000, compared to the same month of 1999, the banks’ foreign currency placements to the nongovernment sector decreased by Denar 1,421 million, or by 17.2%. The fall was primarily due to the higher attractiveness of the banks’ Denar credits due to the higher interest rates. At the end of March 2000, the NBRM continued with further reforms of the monetary policy instruments, where the abolishment of the credit ceilings being the most significant one. Hence, the transition to indirect market-oriented instruments for monetary regulation has entirely been completed. Moreover, the existing monetary instruments have been improved in order to be modern and closer to those used in developed market economies. Within the framework of continuous and intensive efforts to lower the banks’ interest rates, the NBRM, in April 2000, decreased the discount rate and the Lombard credit interest rate by one percentage points, thus reducing them to 7.9% and 17.5% p.a. respectively. 1  On December 30, 2000, according to the new methodology, the NBRM gross foreign exchange reserves equaled USD 478.1 million.
BIS Review 117/2006  3  Conclusion Let me conclude my comments on the report. It is an important document that the authors have produced. I have put some time into arguing against a couple of the proposals, but I once again would like to emphasise that I agree with the authors on most of what they have written. We will of course closely examine the criticism that has been raised. However, I hope that the fact that the report is critical on a few points will not overshadow the overall message – namely that Swedish monetary policy has worked well. Thank you! 4  BIS Review 117/2006

Incidents of the Libor being manipulated, whether already admitted or suspected, are problematic for the reputation of the banks involved, and for the financial sector as a whole. This discussion  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  on the Libor is also significant for us, because we use the three-month Libor in the implementation of monetary policy. No Swiss franc Libor distortions relevant to monetary policy have thus far been ascertained. Furthermore, an SNB survey conducted among banks this year confirmed that the Libor remains an important variable for credit transactions, namely for mortgages. Of the banks surveyed, 80% indicated that they use the Libor as a benchmark for pricing loans. It also continues to play a key role in the pricing of financial products and derivatives. Neither the sharp decline in unsecured loans on the interbank market nor the incidents of manipulation have so far changed this. In July 2012, the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in the UK was commissioned to undertake a review on reforming the Libor. At the end of September, the working group convened for this purpose presented its findings in the Wheatley Review, which included a series of proposed measures. These aim to prevent further attempts at manipulation, and to restore confidence in the Libor. The report recommends, inter alia, that rate-setting processes and their oversight be improved, and that certain maturities and currencies be withdrawn. Under the proposals, the three-month Swiss franc Libor will continue to be determined.