The first two stages – preliminary inquiries conducted through phone and Internet surveys – gauged how individuals interpreted the Michigan Survey questions and how they would respond to alternative questions about future inflation. The Internet survey also “piloted” questions on wage expectations and inflation uncertainty to expand the information currently elicited by the Michigan Survey. These preliminary inquiries guided the final formulation of the questions for the third stage – the actual implementation of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  an alternative experimental Internet survey of inflation expectations using a sample panel of households drawn from previous respondents to the Michigan survey. Reliable measurement requires that respondents agree with one another – and with economic modelers – on what the survey questions mean. For the questions asked in professional surveys, there is little room for differing interpretations of the inflation concept since forecasts for a specific price index are requested. For questions asked of households, specific price indexes are not used so respondents vary in their interpretation of the inflation concept. Thus, their responses may display disagreement not about expectations but the concept of inflation being used. Indeed, one feature that the Michigan Survey’s question about “prices in general” shares with other surveys is a high dispersion of responses around the median. This evidence of disagreement is in part related to observable characteristics of respondents such as age, gender, education and income. However, the differences in responses across demographic groups far exceed the variations in inflation experienced by the groups.

The BNB Governor also outlined the second work block in this direction, on which the BNB is currently working, i.e., the overall framework of determining the amount of funds to be contributed by banks to the Single Resolution Fund and the amount and way of transferring funds from the Bank Resolution Fund in Bulgaria, which was set up in 2015, to the Single Resolution Fund. The third work block covers the overall activity of planning and conducting resolution activities, including the distribution of responsibilities and tasks between the Single Resolution Board and the BNB after our country joins the Banking Union. With regard to the expected effects on the economy and the business, the BNB Governor highlighted that it was positive to reaffirm Bulgaria’s strategic course, and that the process is already being filled with content and specific timeframe. The whole process stands as a positive counterbalance against the more general uncertainty from the global and European economic environment. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  Among the more direct positive effects from this first stage on the path to the euro area is the anticipated improvement of the country’s credit rating, as announced by the credit agencies, should the process run successfully in the short-term. That would improve the funding conditions in the country. At the same time, the effects of joining ERM II will not be tangible in regard to the macroeconomic policy and neither will our monetary regime change.