samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Initially motivated by concerns over bilateral trade imbalances, trade measures are now being taken in response to issues ranging from immigration to Intellectual Property protection to control of the technologies underpinning the Fourth Industrial Revolution.2 It has even become fashionable for some to speak of a new Cold War. That bears a moment’s reflection for a lot has changed. At the height of the Cold War, US-USSR trade was worth $ billion a year; today, US-Chinese trade clocks $ billion a day. More broadly trade in intermediate goods and services has doubled since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and production has become increasingly integrated across borders.3 The longer current tensions persist, the greater the risk that protectionism becomes the norm. Once raised, tariffs are usually slow to be lowered. Consider that half a century ago the US imposed tariffs on light trucks due to a dispute over chicken exports to Europe. While the chickens were soon forgotten, the truck tariffs remain in place. Reflecting the more febrile atmosphere, a trade war has shot to the top of the risks most worrying investors (Chart 3) and measures of global economic policy uncertainty have reached record highs (Chart 4). Such concerns are contributing to sharp reductions in corporate earnings expectations (Chart 5), though for the time being the falls in expected policy rates have cushioned the impact on equity prices. The markets’ faith in the power of monetary policy is notable.

It is this cost-benefit calculus that both motivates a role for macro-prudential policy, and helps us define precisely what we mean by it. In short, macro-prudential policy aims to improve the trade-off between the financial system’s contribution to the rewards expected in a growing economy and the degree of risk that we will face in the bad times. To return to my analogy, we might liken it to the NHS and to health insurance where we pay a bit in the good times to protect ourselves should our health take a turn for the worse. Principles of good policy making Macro-prudential authorities, like the UK’s FPC, work to ensure that financial systems are resilient to, and prepared for, the wide range of possible shocks they could face. Their aim is to ensure that when shocks occur, the financial system is able to absorb those shocks, rather than to amplify their impact on the economy. We ground what we do in two elements of good macro-prudential policymaking:  Macro-prudential policy should be targeted to provide a net benefit to the overall 3/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  economy. Where interventions incur costs, these should only be imposed when they are outweighed by the benefits over the full cycle. This is perhaps equivalent to starting a course of new medication, where a good doctor must be aware of potential side effects as well as intended benefits.
Taking account of this uncertainty is particularly important in the case of the euro area, whose “deep structural parameters” are somewhat uncertain to the extent that the inception of the euro may have been associated with a “regime shift”. More prosaically, this medium-term orientation of the single monetary policy recognises that it is impossible for a central bank to control price developments with accuracy over the short-term. The second implication is that the relevant indicators for monetary policy must reflect, almost exhaustively, the main sources of both short and long-term inflation. In the light of this, the monetary policy strategy seeks, as far as possible, to rely on a “full information approach”. This is what the concepts economic analysis and monetary analysis – also known as the two-pillar approach – used notably at the press conferences given by the ECB President following monetary policy decisions, reflect: -  the economic analysis examines cyclical, economic and financial indicators related to the main determinants of short-term inflation;  -  the monetary analysis, is based on a monetary explanation of the low frequency movement of inflation. -  The medium-term orientation of the single monetary policy makes necessary the crosschecking of these two complementary approaches. From this point of view, the ECB’s monetary policy strategy is more comprehensive than pure inflation or monetary targeting strategies.

The Albanian banking sector bore a considerable part of the financial bill of the pandemic and provided a continuous financial support to enterprises and households. In addition, the banking system carried out its function without jeopardising the main parameters of its financial soundness: the level of liquidity; profitability and capitalisation. Nowadays, the public considers our banking system a safe destination to hold their savings; enterprises find a source of funds, services and consultancy, while the economy finds a promoter of development and absorber of shocks. In parallel with these main directions, the Bank of Albania has worked and has achieved successful results in other fields as well, among which I find it appropriate to highlight: The payment system, which is already operating within a legal and regulatory framework in full compliance with the EU standards and with a payment infrastructure in an ongoing modernisation process. Here, I mention the approval of the new Law on the Payment System, which transposes the relevant directive of the European Union and paves the way for increasing the number of actors and strengthening the market effectiveness. Also, in 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  January 2022, the Bank of Albania has started operating the complete infrastructure for the processing and settlement of euro denominated payments within Albania. This development will result in lower costs and considerable reduction of the time for the realisation of payments, with a considerable benefit to both the Albanian enterprises and households.
William C Dudley: Opening remarks at the Evolution of Work Conference Opening remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Evolution of Work Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 17 November 2016. * * * Nora Fitzpatrick, Laura Pilossoph, Anika Pratt and Aysegul Sahin assisted in preparing these remarks. Good morning. I would like to welcome you to this conference on the Evolution of Work. Today, we will explore how the nature of work is evolving, including the role of technology, shifts in employee work arrangements and employer-employee relationships, and the effects of these changes on workforce development strategies. We are pleased to host this conference with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Freelancers Union. We welcome all the leaders from across academia, government, industry, labor and the nonprofit sector assembled here to explore the transformation of the workforce, and the impact this has had on communities and the economy more broadly. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System. As you know, the Federal Reserve monitors the labor market closely, given that maximum sustainable employment is one goal of the Fed’s dual mandate. The evolving nature of the workplace—and the speed with which it is changing—are therefore important developments that we must continue to monitor.

Today, we will also focus on what this evolution means for low- and moderate-income households. One session will explore on-the-ground community development and labor models, with a focus on the implications for low- and moderate-income earners. This will be an important discussion on how to help workers build the skills necessary to adapt to change—a conversation that should ultimately include workers, their employers, their communities and the public sector, working together. We all need to share in the responsibility of helping people increase and maintain the skills relevant to contributing valued work. Again, I wish you a fruitful dialogue, and I commend you for coming together to discuss such important issues and the trends affecting the U.S. workforce. 1  BIS central bankers' speeches
Calibrating PEPP This brings me to the second question – the calibration of the PEPP. By removing duration risk from the market, PEPP reduces the bond free-float ratio –the share of bonds that need to be held by private price-sensitive investors relative to total bond supply (see left chart on Slide 8). In the absence of our new measures, this ratio would have gradually increased on the back of the large coronavirus-induced increase in debt issuance, thereby putting upward pressure on bond yields. The PEPP envelope has been calibrated with a view to restoring and preserving financial conditions that are consistent with bringing inflation back to the pre-COVID-19 inflation path. The evidence speaks for itself. Upon the announcement of the PEPP, and again in response to our actions last week, the euro area GDP-weighted yield curve has shifted downward measurably, and today it is not far from the level we observed before the outbreak of the crisis (see right chart on Slide 8). In view of the historically weak inflation outlook and the already accommodative stance, the question arises whether our actions are sufficient and proportionate. In answering this question, the Governing Council assesses whether the benefits of achieving a faster return of inflation to levels closer to 2% outweigh the potentially adverse side effects. In other words, it assesses how long the “medium term” should be, given current circumstances.

Asset purchases are the second type of support in current stressed market conditions. They increase the risk-absorption capacity of market participants at a time when it is most needed and when limits to arbitrage prevent markets from operating efficiently.3 Empirical evidence corroborates this view. Findings in the literature suggest that the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchases during the global financial crisis have had a stronger impact on both financial conditions and the economy than during less stressed periods (see Slide 6). In recent months, we have witnessed similar effects in the euro area. The evidence around the PEPP announcement suggests that the normalised impact of a € 500 billion purchase envelope may be almost twice as large as under our regular asset purchase programme (APP) (see left chart on Slide 7).4 In the euro area, however, there is a second dimension that is crucial for the effectiveness of asset purchases in periods of market stress: geographical fragmentation. At the beginning of the crisis, perceptions of differences in fiscal policy space have widened the wedge between the financing costs of euro area sovereigns, and hence of firms, banks and households in the single currency area. In such periods of acute market segmentation, asset purchases tend to operate differently: as portfolio rebalancing is weakened, their effects are mostly “local” – that is, specific to the market segment where purchases are conducted. In other words, monetary policy needs to act in a more targeted and flexible way to reduce risks of fragmentation.
With these few words, Mr Chairman, I would like to urge you, the participants, to be interactive in your discussions as this is one of the ways the workshop would add value to your knowledge and skills. I wish you fruitful discussions as you share your valuable experiences in macroeconomic analysis and modelling in support of Millennium Development Goals. I thank you for your attention. BIS Review 123/2007  3

Allow me to express our utmost gratitude to His Majesty Seri Paduka Baginda Yang di-Pertuan Agong and Her Majesty, and His Royal Highness Sultan of Perak Darul Ridzuan, the Royal Patron of Malaysia International Islamic Financial Centre (MIFC) and Her Royal Highness, for gracing tonight’s Gala Dinner. Our sincere appreciation to Securities Commission Malaysia, for jointly hosting this dinner with Bank Negara Malaysia, under the Malaysia International Islamic Financial Centre (MIFC) initiative. Since the introduction of the Royal Award for Islamic Finance (RAIF) in 2010 as a biennial event, it has given due recognition to three individuals. Tonight, another individual will be awarded the 2016 RAIF, for outstanding contributions in the development of Islamic finance. The Islamic finance industry has continued to gain strength and stature, recording robust global growth of between 10 to 12 percent annually over the past decade. Amidst a highly challenging global economic environment, the growth reflects the steady advancement and maturity of the industry in meeting the needs of the economy. As we progress into the new era of growth, our endeavour to enhance the vibrancy of the industry warrants a new way of thinking in the face of increasing competition and profound changes brought about by technological advancements. In facing these challenges successfully, one of the prerequisites is a pool of talent that is dynamic, adaptable and visionary. 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  In Malaysia, we have invested substantially in cultivating talents equipped with the required skill sets and knowledge needed to compete, to think and to innovate.
Typically, what we would like to have is a balance between the two so that the system will have its own stabilizing mechanism when the shocks hit. But in this crisis, apparently the positive feedbacks had been overwhelming. Let me cite a few examples of the positive feedback loops that were in play. BIS Review 130/2009  1  The first, example A, is the originate-to-distribute model, which was prominent at the formative period of the crisis. Here, we see that with the housing sector booming, investment funds were eager to seek entries into the credit business, despite the fact that they had no expertise in evaluating credit risks of mortgage loans, or the complex risk exposures when mortgage loans were packaged, first into CDO, then into commercial papers backed by CDO, and so on. So, with a ready market for securitsation or structured products, banks, who were assured that credit risks would be transferred off their balance sheets, enlarged their lending activities. This is a classic moral hazard problem that helped fuel the already booming housing market. Example B is a positive feedback loop linked to the stress on the SIV. Once subprime mortgages began to default, investors in the junior tranches of cash CDO started losing money. What happened was that not only the ex post rate of defaults increased, but the senior tranches were also hit by a rise in ex ante default correlation, causing losses in the senior cash CDO tranches.

Through the themes and art embodied in its design, the national currency remains a faithful herald of the development, culture and history of a country. Thanks to these attributes, the currency is in itself a significant element of the national identity. The theme of the current series of Albanian banknotes, created more than 20 years ago, features important historical periods of the Albanian nation, and prominent personalities of Albania. These themes, embodied in each banknote through the portraits of some of the most illustrious national figures, evoke notable episodes in the history of Albania in its endeavours for freedom and prosperity. The themes lead us on a journey through historical eras, starting from Antiquity, moving through the Middle Ages, the National Awakening, the Independence of Albania, and concluding with the symbols of the national flag and anthem on the latest and largest denomination, the 10.000 lek banknote. These symbols have been chosen as representative and unifying elements for every Albanian. While the new series that we are presenting today retains the same themes of the already existing series, its design is reconfigured and restyled, through the application of modern technologies in banknote production. Thanks to cutting-edge technology, the Albanian banknote is now more secure. Its security features – a key priority of the Bank of Albania – are enhanced. In addition, innovative printing techniques and materials have been used to increase durability and the banknotes’ dimensions have been optimised. The design now boasts a fresher look.
We assess the models banks use to measure risk and the scenarios used to stress test exposures, but the banks have the responsibility for designing and running the risk management infrastructure. By looking across a broad range of world class financial institutions, we have a good sense of the evolving frontier of best practice in risk management which we can then use to help benchmark other institutions and pull common practice closer to that frontier. For a number of reasons, this can’t be the model for the Fund’s relationships with its members. But it provides an interesting prism in thinking about surveillance. The Fund has explored a number of ideas to strengthen the surveillance framework. One of the most promising is to establish a process with more frequent, published staff assessments of performance against a medium-term framework designed by the member country. That assessment could convey a  4  BIS Review 37/2004  clear judgement about the degree of progress being made in reducing vulnerabilities, improving resilience, and strengthening the structural underpinnings of growth. Analysis of public and external debt trends, benchmarked against sustainability and vulnerability thresholds, and stress tests for relevant shocks could play a key role in this process. There are compelling arguments for combining such a framework with contingent access to Fund resources. Surveillance today does not provide a meaningful check on ex ante policies, and resources are only made available when the financial need is acute.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Once a student, always a student Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the University of Bern, Switzerland, 9 February 2006. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  Like all decisions relating to the future, monetary policy decisions involve numerous uncertainties. Economic researchers are divided as regards both the effects of monetary policy and the form that this policy should take. There are a number of competing models in economic theory, and their policy recommendations often vary. Relationships that have been stable in the past may change at any time, due to the fact that the structural equations used in economic models are not based on the laws of nature. The Swiss National Bank's monetary policy concept takes account of these uncertainties. Our inflation forecast is a key element in this concept and combines the results obtained by a variety of different models. Research is extremely important in our changing world. We can only be sure of identifying new developments as early as possible and basing our monetary policy decisions on a solid foundation if we engage in constant research. BIS Review 9/2006  1
Kristina Persson: Sweden, EMU and the krona Speech by Ms Kristina Persson, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a seminar at Svensk Handel, Stockholm, 16 November 2001. *  *  *  Thank you for the invitation to come here. The theme is an important one, even if we do not yet know when a referendum will be held and whether a decision on EMU membership will be taken in Sweden. There is now just over one month left until 1 January 2002, when 307 million inhabitants of 12 European countries will have the same new banknotes and coins. 15 billion banknotes and 50 billion coins will come into circulation. In the course of a couple of months the national banknotes and coins in the eurozone will cease to be legal tender. The distribution and exchange will involve enormous challenges in terms of practical implementation, logistics and security. Yet I should imagine that many people will soon see it as a positive experience to be able to use the same means of payment throughout almost the whole of western Europe. Seeing the banknotes and shopping in euro prices across the continent brings home the existence of the monetary union in a more tangible way for the citizens of Europe. For us Swedes the euro will enforce our sense of being outside the euro. In addition, we have behind us a period during which the krona has weakened without this being apparent entirely motivated by fundamental factors.

Luis M Linde: International financial integration and fragmentation. Drivers and policy responses Opening remarks by Mr Luis M Linde, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the Conference on “International financial integration and fragmentation. Drivers and policy responses”, organized by the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee and the Bank of Spain, Madrid, 12 March 2013. *  *  *  Good morning to all. Buenos dias a todos y bienvenidos a Madrid: It is for me a pleasure to welcome you to Banco de España and to this Seminar on international financial integration. I would like to start by thanking Marc Uzan and the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee for their fruitful cooperation in organizing an agenda that is indeed very promising. More than five years into the crisis, it is still hard to grasp the real magnitude of the changes that our financial systems are undergoing. In fact, we are still trying to restore the financial channels to support the growth of internal and external demand. While we perform such, so to say, “fire-fighter task”, it is not easy to take a step back and look at how the contours of our economic and financial landscape are evolving. But we can already distinguish some of the characteristics of the new scenario that is taking shape, and that will be our habitat as central bankers, regulators, financial intermediaries or analysts in the years to come.