samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A number of banks have therefore frozen headcount and some have BIS Review 48/1998  -4-  felt obliged to lay off staff. Some branches have been closed. This is an unfortunate aspect of the adjustment process that Hong Kong is currently undergoing. However, not all the moves are purely defensive. Banks are also trying to find ways of delivering products and services to customers more cheaply and efficiently, for example through telephone call centres, electronic banking and segmentation of the branch network. There is also more emphasis on using the branch networks to cross-sell other products such as unit trusts and insurance so as to build up non-interest income. Geographically, ambitions to expand in the region have obviously been dampened by the financial crisis. But there is a wide recognition that the Mainland of China offers substantial opportunities for banks in Hong Kong both to develop new business and to expand their relationship with existing customers. Underlying all the banks’ strategies at present must be the recognition that the Year 2000 issue has to be tackled successfully. This is an issue of basic business survival. I believe that banks in Hong Kong are aware of this and are working actively to meet the HKMA’s deadline of end-December 1998 to achieve Year 2000 compliance. How is Hong Kong’s position as an international financial centre going to be affected by what is happening in the region? It is clear that the number of foreign institutions in Hong Kong will shrink to some extent.

What, for example, the Bank and the Miyazawa Plan have achieved in the provision of credit guarantees to several sovereign bond issues after the outbreak of the financial crisis could also be achieved and expanded through market based arrangements. Credit enhancement is quite common in the developed markets. In the US, the credit guarantee companies were insuring around $ 278.5 billion of debt securities at the end of 1998. The availability and use of credit enhancement facilities have become a basic ingredient of mature bond markets. It will be useful to examine how this could be promoted in the region. This promises to give a much-needed boost to the development of the bond market in the region. Mr President, let me end by expressing confidence that the Bank, under your leadership, will be able to play a more pivotal role in the development of Asia as it steps into a new era in which technology presents an abundance of opportunities as well as risks. BIS Review 38/2000  2
The goal is a situation in which economic slack has disappeared, economic growth is in line with growth in potential output, inflation is at the target, and the external position of the economy is sustainable. Second, we must establish a financial system that serves Icelandic households and domestic business activities and is both efficient and relatively secure. The third challenge is that of re-establishing confidence abroad in Iceland’s institutional framework, economy, and financial system; repairing the connections with foreign financial markets; and ensuring that the Icelandic Government and Icelandic companies have access to foreign credit markets once again. The economic recovery was just about to begin when the 2010 meeting was held. It then gained enough momentum that, in five years’ time, we have returned to pre-crisis GDP levels and have eliminated virtually all of the spare capacity in the economy. At the same time, the unemployment rate has fallen sharply and is now close to its equilibrium value. Structural reforms could reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate still further in the future, however. Inflation is below the inflation target at present, and inflation expectations had subsided to target by the turn of the year. Treasury debt has declined steadily since 2011, and the outlook is for this trend to continue in the years to come. Household and corporate debt levels have also declined markedly. The ratio of household debt to disposable income is now roughly at 2005 levels, and the ratio of corporate debt to GDP is at its lowest since mid-2004.

A certain increase in lending is normal in an economic upswing, when companies need to borrow in order to invest, while households borrow, for example, in order to meet rising house prices. In an economic boom, loan losses are also generally low, while they tend to be higher during a recession. The increased level of indebtedness has also come under discussion. The question has been raised of whether households and companies today borrow to such an extent that this could lead to problems in the banking sector when the economic cycle turns downward. History shows us that the factor which has triggered banking crises in modern times has often been extensive loan losses caused by changes in the macroeconomic environment. This was also the case during the Swedish banking crisis at the beginning of the 1990s. Is the growth in credit worrying? So what is the situation at present? Figures for April show that total lending to the general public is up 7.3% compared with April 1999. The main growth is in household lending, which has risen by 8.8%, while corporate lending has increased by 4.1%.1 A perspective on these figures can be obtained if we consider them in relation to GDP. This gives a measure of whether lending is growing at a faster rate than the economy as a whole, which provides us with an indication of whether imbalances are being built up.
The last decade has seen strong global economic growth, while, at the same time, output volatility have dropped. In practice, two paths have emerged for achieving price stability. One way is through a fixed exchange rate regime, such as a currency board. Under such an arrangement, a country simply imports the monetary policy of a country with a highly credible low-inflation regime. This path has emerged as the weapon of choice of many emerging economies. These countries want to achieve price stability, while avoiding the costly deflations which otherwise might be necessary to anchor inflation expectations. The other way is through an independent central bank with a mandate to maintain price stability. This mandate is often formulated in terms of an inflation target. The inflation target operated by the Swedish Riksbank stipulates that consumer price inflation should be 2 per cent per year, with a tolerance interval of plus/minus 1 percentage point. For all practical purposes this arrangement is close to what is found in, for example, the UK, Australia, Norway and the Eurozone. It should also be said that there is a general consensus that the inflation target in Sweden has been a successful one. Financial stability As I mentioned earlier, many central banks today also have an objective to promote financial stability. While there is close to universal agreement on what price stability means, there has yet to emerge, some attempts none withstanding, a consensus on a working definition of  BIS Review 101/2007  1  financial stability.

The ECB and the National Central Banks of the Eurosystem are finalising a new projection exercise, whose results will be published in early June. That will be the time to assess the effects that this first-quarter figure and all the new information compiled since the last exercise may have exerted on the baseline scenario for GDP growth in the coming quarters. As you know, in any event, the procedural rules for the ECB Governing Council set a brief period immediately before each of the monetary policy meetings in which the members, myself among them, must not make any statement that may be interpreted as pre-judging in any way the outcome of the meeting. You will therefore understand if I abstain from making any further assessment in relation to this scenario. In terms of employment, last year also saw a turnaround and the job destruction phase in the euro area touched bottom in the second quarter. But the still-moderate recovery has not yet provided for significant improvements in employment levels, meaning that hours worked in the labour market remain far below the historical average and unemployment rates are at a high. On the prices front, sluggish demand and labour market slack are strongly influencing areawide inflation developments. The growth rate of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices has stood at a level below 1% since October 2013, with figures that have generally tended to surprise on the downside.
Svein Gjedrem: Making use of the central bank Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at Norges Bank’s Symposium “What is a useful central bank?”, Oslo, 17 November 2010. *  *  *  The text below may differ from the actual presentation. In his first year as governor of Norges Bank in 1985, Hermod Skånland gave a speech entitled: “Making use of the central bank”. 1 Skånland compared the independence of the Bundesbank with Norges Bank’s position in the government administration under the credit rationing policy of the time here in Norway. He said: “In Norway, where no great degree of power has been given to the central bank, it must develop other qualities.” The Bank was to be efficient in its operations and function as a sound adviser for the government authorities. But in the course of Skånland’s years as governor, Norges Bank’s role changed – the interest rate once again became an active monetary policy instrument. The Norges Bank of today is a result of its own and the country’s economic history. Although the Bank’s role is influenced by central bank developments in other countries, we also have our own legal traditions and our own way of organising government administration. The tasks assigned to the Bank are also supported by modern economic theory. A central bank is different from other public bodies in that it has its own balance sheet, independent budgetary authority and its own accounts.

In 1986, Norges Bank provided substantial loans to the banks – at the highest around NOK 80 billion – to prevent a rise in money market rates after large-scale NOK purchases had been made in support of the krone. 44 The loans, which were unsecured, were kept on Norges Bank’s balance sheet when solvency problems at the banks began in 1987. Norges Bank was later criticised for providing these loans. Although the criticism was misdirected, the loans did make it more difficult for the government to manage the banking crisis. 45 Today the Bank no longer provides unsecured loans and we have gradually tightened collateral requirements. Many banks rely heavily on short-term funding in international and domestic money markets. The lesson from the most recent financial crisis is that a shortfall in foreign funding can weaken stability in the financial system in Norway, even if the banks’ financial position is not in jeopardy at the outset. The next step will therefore be not only to require collateral, but also impose requirements on our clients – the banks – to improve their funding strategies. Banks must not be given the scope to take on substantial liquidity risk in the belief or with the certainty that Norges Bank will intervene should foreign funding seize up. A market functions poorly in the long term with such hidden support. With large unsecured loans, Norges Bank ended up providing income support in one instance in the 1980s when a savings bank experienced solvency problems.
Let me attempt to illustrate the gains of committing to a response pattern rather than pursuing a purely discretionary policy. We have developed tools that allows us to find interest rate paths that minimise the loss function, given a model of the economy’s functioning and given economic shocks. Within the framework of a small macroeconomic model, we have estimated the magnitude of the shocks to which the Norwegian economy has been exposed over the past 10-15 years. Under the two assumptions about monetary policy, discretion and commitment, we have estimated how large the variance of output and inflation will be over time. We have assumed that the economy is exposed to the same shocks as in history. Let me emphasise that this exercise is only meant as an illustration based on a stylised economic model. 10  BIS Review 10/2007  The chart shows the variance of inflation on the vertical axis and variance of the output gap on the horizontal axis. By minimising the loss function that I presented above under discretion and commitment respectively, we obtain different combinations of the variance of inflation and the variance of the output gap. By varying the weight on the output gap, lambda, in the loss function, we obtain a line for each strategy. The lines represent the minimum loss that can be achieved under commitment and under discretion.

These are questions regarding technology, legal issues and the effects of the ekrona on the economy and financial agents. 2 The Executive Board of the Riksbank will soon take a stance on how to continue the work on these questions next year. We will continue to be as open as possible and I would like to emphasise that what we are doing is examining the possibility of introducing an e-krona. No decisions have yet been taken. I would like to conclude my speech by reminding you that it was in Stockholm that the first modern banknote was created more than 350 years ago, and that it is here, in Sweden, that cash is currently taking its last breaths. Perhaps the Riksbank will be writing history again. 2 See, for instance, James Tobin (1987), ”The Case for Preserving Regulatory Distinctions”, Challenge, vol. 30, No. 5, pp. 10-17. There are also clear points of contact with the investigation that preceded the creation of Postgirot (Statement and proposal regarding the introduction of a postal cheque business. Sthm 1919. Marcus. 4:0)  6 [6]
Central banks after the crisis – increased differences and country-specific solutions Let me conclude by returning to the question I asked at the beginning – whether the central banks will conduct their operations differently after the crisis than they did before. The answer to that question is that it all depends. It is quite clear that a general conclusion from the crisis is that greater effort must be made to stabilise the credit cycle by preventing overly rapid upturns. However, the role given to the central bank in this regard varies from country to country. In some countries, the task has been more or less entirely allocated to the central bank, while in other countries the central bank has a less prominent role. One consequence of this is that, while there was a trend prior to the crisis for central banks’ policy to look increasingly similar – with flexible inflation-targeting as a basic model – it appears as though the trend is towards greater differences after the crisis. Flexible inflation targeting is still the linchpin, but as management of the credit cycle differs between the  16  See, for example, Blanchard, Dell’Ariccia and Mauro (2013), Carney (2013) and Stein (2013). 17  Jeremy Stein at the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors has expressed it as the advantage of monetary policy being that it “gets in all of the cracks” (Stein, 2013, p. 17). The Riksbank has also raised this argument in various contexts, see for instance, Ingves (2010) and Nyberg (2011).

The products we are getting ready to launch soon, that means the confidence indices, have to justify their designation. Stated differently, the public must believe the product of the Bank of Albania is reliable, that product is the object and the real indicator of the public’s expectations. In the meantime, we expect to have back the echo of the public’s trust. Wishing you all a fruitful working-day, Thank you! 2  BIS Review 118/2006
Global growth will also influence oil prices and developments in prices for other commodities. Oil prices are high and futures prices indicate that they will remain so. The price of Brent Blend has averaged close to USD 70 per barrel so far this year. In recent months, the price has been well above this level. Gas prices have also increased in recent years, reflecting the rise in oil prices and gas shortages in Europe. Gas prices fell somewhat in the first half of 2007, partly as a result of the decline in UK gas prices and the fall in oil prices in the first half of 2007. Both UK gas prices and oil prices have risen again this autumn. Gas prices are expected to remain at a high level, and the price of Norwegian gas may rise in the period ahead. A long period of high oil prices has boosted investment in oil and gas activities, leading to a strong increase in domestic activity in recent years. The level of petroleum investment is historically high and the outlook is favourable. The discovery rate on the Norwegian continental shelf appears to be high this year. The number of applicants for new exploration activities is unusually high. Coupled with high oil prices, these factors will contribute to increased activity on the Norwegian continental shelf in coming years. At the same time, the composition of production is changing. Oil production is on the decline and has not been lower since 1994.

Svein Gjedrem: Interest rates, the exchange rate and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), to the Mid-Norway Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Trondheim, 28 November 2007. The text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 31 October and in Monetary Policy Report 3/07. *  *  *  Introduction Monetary policy in Norway is oriented towards low and stable inflation with annual consumer price inflation of close to 2.5 per cent over time. The objective of low and stable inflation provides the economy with a nominal anchor. This means that all economic agents – households and enterprises, whether large or small – can plan ahead on the assumption that inflation will be low and stable. In a small, open and decentralised market economy like Norway, and with our particular industry structure, there will be cyclical fluctuations. When economic agents have confidence that inflation is low and stable over time, the interest rate can also be set with a view to dampening the fluctuations somewhat. Low inflation and solid growth in the Norwegian economy Inflation in Norway decelerated markedly from the late-1980s to the mid-1990s and has since been low and stable, and fairly close to, but somewhat lower than the target of 2.5 per cent, with considerably lower variability than earlier.
These are just a few examples of the important work accomplished by the international financial institutions and various experts. Your presence here at this Conference is the best testament to how the solutions and ways for crisis prevention are still evolving, situations being reassessed, and tools being refined. Ladies and Gentlemen, There has been a saying that “every crisis is a new crisis” - we don't have the same kind of crisis twice - and this indeed is a scary thought. We can come up with a how - to book on solving banking problems and crisis resolution, but the challenges are still enormous. I would like to reiterate the point made earlier that prevention is key because once a weak bank explodes into a full-blown crisis, the depth and complexity of problems could be of the magnitude that is unimaginable. It is with these thoughts in mind that I would have to sum up with this simple message: a supervisor can never be complacent. Ladies and Gentlemen, The Asian crisis started from Thailand slightly over six years ago, and it induced a train of international coordination programs and discussions to prevent a recurrence and means to manage it. I hope this conference will add to our knowledge of supervisory tools that can aid participating supervisors to better meet the challenges of weak bank resolution and systemic crisis regardless of the stages of economic development and forms of financial system.

I am happy that Thailand is the venue of, and is host to, this conference - a commendable international effort to bring us all closer to our aspiration of a sound and stable financial system. May I take this opportunity to thank the FSI and BIS for allowing us to take part in this event and for the excellent cooperation over the years. Our compliments to Mr. Jason George and his team for their very efficient organization of this event. I wish you all a successful conference. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 14/2004
Based on OECD Labour Force Statistics, UK rates of female participation are second only to Canada across the G7, having recently overtaken the US. Chart 1: G7 female participation rates Per cent  70  60  50  40  30  20 1976  1980  1984 Canada  1988 France  1992  1996  2000  Germany  Italy  2004  2008  Japan  2012 UK  2016 US  Sources: ONS Labour Force Survey, OECD Labour Force Statistics and Bank of England calculations. 7 This paper does not aim to produce better estimates of the gender and ethnicity pay gaps than the official ones published by the ONS. ASHE data is the best source for estimating the overall gaps, but the LFS has a rich set of individual and job characteristics allowing the type of analysis showcased here. 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  The increase in female participation has been accompanied by an opposite trend among the male population, which has fallen from 70% to 65% over the sample. In other words, the gender “participation gap” between males and females in the UK has fallen by around 10 percentage points over the past 25 years, though it remains positive at around 8 percentage points. The participation of ethnic minorities in the UK labour force has also been on an upward trend since the 1990s, reaching around 64% in 2019.

From April they should be able to start buying assets from banks, including foreclosed assets and NPLs which have completed court process and awaiting receivership. This should help to further speed up NPL reduction. Ladies and gentlemen, Let me now turn to the main topic of my talk today, the role and responsibility of bank directors. First of all, I would like to emphasize that bank directors play a crucial role not only to the individual institution, but the directorship carries with it accountability and responsibility for the stability of the economic and financial system of the country. This broad accountability arises from the central role played by banks in the process of financial intermediation and payments system of the country. Therefore, financial institution soundness and efficiency are of utmost importance, as financial system stability depends crucially on the public confidence. Financial weakness or improper business conduct in one bank could affect the general confidence and stability of the entire financial system, thus causing systemic risk. In light of this, bank directors must carry out their duty in overseeing that sound, proper, efficient, and progressive business practices develop in their individual banks. They must at the same time uphold their accountability for the preservation of the public interest through contributing to safeguarding economic and financial stability. Thus, bank directorship carries with it accountability not only to shareholders, but also to depositors, clients, and other stakeholders in society at large.