samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Thus, in countries like Albania, Croatia, and Macedonia as well, the growth of household’s deposits is tepid. In the first two countries, the average growth rate is around zero in the last four years, while in Macedonia, although the growth rate is positive, a slowdown is observed in 2015 and 2016. In the Macedonian case, a comparison of household’s savings and its fundamentals was conducted, and the analysis revealed that the slowdown cannot be explained by the change in the disposable income, nor by other savings alternatives. Hence, some country-specific factors – political instability, and the drop in the interest rates were detected as possible causes for the slowdown. Chart 6: Annual growth in % 100  Deposits of households  75 50 25 0  average -2005-2007  average -2008-2012  average - 2013-2016  region avg  SLO  SRB  ROM  POL  MKD  LIT  LAT  HUN  EST  CZR  CRO  BUL  BIH  AlB  -25  2016  Source: Central Banks’ internet pages. Apart from the interest rate channel, quantitative easing is another possible spillover channel of ECB policy that so far has not been subject to a wide research. The expected outcome of the ECB assets purchase programs for the region would be allocation of part of the liquidity on the CESEE financial markets, enabling increase of the cross–border capital flows, compression of the longer term yields, of the government in particular and possible increase of the stock market indices.

This year, we received 39 studies, ranging from monetary policy and economic and financial development of the country to topics related to aspects of management of production and financial activities, European integration, and technology innovations applied in the fields of virtual money and finance. These works are characterised by the use of contemporary research methodologies and make use of ample statistical information, to research, through theoretical arguments and cause-effect practical relations, various economic phenomena and the rules governing them. Despite the objective difficulties in selecting the most interesting studies, we have eventually come to a decision on the “Governor’s Award for the Best Diploma Theses” for 2019. Having said that, while limited to selecting only three winners, I take this opportunity to congratulate all the participants for their serious commitment and the ideas, methods and conclusions in their laudable research. I would encourage you to continue in your career, after this first step in scientific research, with many more ambitious ones. Let us now present the winning candidates. Thank you and happy holidays! 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
This includes the following main elements: BIS Review 28/1998  ˝  -4-  • Clear responsibilities and objectives for the supervisor set out in a suitable legal framework • Operational independence for the supervisor and the necessary resources to do the job • A proper licensing regime for banks • Sound prudential regulations and requirements that address the main types of risk faced by banks • The means to enforce supervisory requirements and gather information through on-site examination and off-site review • The power to take action against problem banks, including closure • The ability to conduct consolidated supervision and to cooperate and exchange information with other supervisors at home and abroad 15. These may seem like statements of the obvious. But the necessary measures were evidently not fully in place in a number of countries in the region. Reforms are now being implemented, in some cases with the help of the IMF and the World Bank. These include tighter limits on loan growth and on lending to sectors such as property; tightening of the loan classification framework and provisioning requirements; more disclosure of non-performing loans; strengthening of on-site examination to introduce a more risk-based approach; and enhanced legal powers for the supervisors to take prompt action to deal with problem banks. In a number of countries, problem banks and finance companies have been closed down or are being merged and efforts are being made to realize as much value as possible from their bad assets.

'19  20 12  12  15  15 9  9  10  10 6  6  5  5  3  3  0  0  0  0  2019  2020  2021  2017  2022  2018  2019  2020  2021  (*) The bars of the 2018 surveys correspond to the months of September to December in consecutive order. The same applies to 2019, for the months of January to May. Sources: Ministry of Economy's Sustainable project management bureau (OGPS), and Capital Goods Corporation (CBC). Page 14 of 18  Figure 9 Interest rates on bonds and commercial loans (percent)  11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2  11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2  Commercial loans (*)  BCP-5 BCP-10 BCP-2 10  13  16  19  (*) Weighted average rates on all operations performed in each month. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and SBIF. Figure 10 Terms of trade (index, 2013=100)  108  Mar. '19 Report  104  108  104 Jun. '19 Report  100  100  96  96  92  92 13  14  15  16  17  Source: Central Bank of Chile. Page 15 of 18  18  19  20  21  Table 4 International baseline scenario assumptions Avg. Avg.
Mark Carney: The European Union, monetary and financial stability, and the Bank of England Text of the Cairncross Lecture by Mr Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, St Peter’s College, Oxford, 21 October 2015. *  *  *  I would like to thank Ben Nelson and Iain de Weymarn for their assistance in preparing these remarks, and Aaron Clements-Partridge, Rashmi Harimohan, David Ronicle, Thomas Smith, James Talbot, Ryland Thomas, Nicola Anderson, Phil Evans, Richard Blows, George Murphy, Mike Flood, Peter Nagle, Nicola Shadbolt, Sinead Meany, Jumana Saleheen, Dennis Reinhardt, Bob Hills and Siobhan Clark for their work preparing EU Membership and the Bank of England. 1. Introduction  It is a great honour to give this Cairncross Lecture in Wren’s exquisite Sheldonian Theatre. Sir Alec Cairncross was a celebrated economist whose career bestrode public service and academia. Born to a Lanarkshire ironmonger in 1911, he rose, via Glasgow University and Cambridge, to serve as the first head of the Government Economic Service and later, much more illustriously of course, as Master of St Peter’s College. His work serves as a reminder of how enduring are the most trying economic questions we face. His PhD thesis, eventually published after great anticipation in 1953, concerned British investment at home and abroad during the last great wave of globalisation – a Golden Era for global commerce that stretched from Canadian Confederation to the eve of the Great War.

On this visit I will also meet with a wide range of people to talk about what we do and to hear first-hand the economic and financial issues important to you in the Hudson Valley so that I can best represent all my constituents in my work at the Fed. I also look forward to walking across that magnificent old railroad bridge, the Walkway Over the Hudson, for the spectacular view that I’m told awaits me. I thank the Center for Research, Regional Education and Outreach for inviting me to speak at SUNY New Paltz today. This morning I will talk about economic conditions in the nation and the region, paying particular attention to how the recession has affected the labor market here. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee (that is, the committee that sets interest rates – also known by its initials as the FOMC). Introduction to the New York Fed By way of introduction, let me start with a synopsis of what the New York Fed is, what we do and what makes my job so interesting. The New York Fed is part of the Federal Reserve System, America’s central bank, which was created by Congress in 1913. With this act, Congress delegated to the Fed System its constitutional authority to manage the supply of money in the nation’s economy.
In the opinion of the Banco de España, the standardised operational risk approach that the Basel Committee has submitted to public consultation should be improved in various respects The review of the standardised approach seeks to provide greater sensitivity to credit risk in the calculation of RWAs and, in turn, to prevent the approach from residing excessively and automatically on the ratings given by external rating agencies. The Basel Committee is striving to design a standardised approach that redresses these shortcomings, and is adjusting certain elements and deciding on their calibration. The position of the Banco de España, like that of other national supervisors, is that this review should not give rise to capital increases, or in any event increases that may prove significant for the banking sector. The use of internal models is also under review, with the internal credit and operational risk models pending finalisation this year. The aim is to reduce the excessive variability of RWAs, and in this connection work is under way in several directions, which may be summarised as follows. First, not all risks are deemed subject to modelling. Such is the case of operational risk. The current proposal is to cease to model this risk. Second, under credit risk, not all portfolios will be equally subject to modelling. Specifically, “low-default portfolios” would be a case in point, as would, for instance, that of banks, or certain segments of that of corporations.

This condition is currently difficult to comply with, since banks are still in the process of setting up their MREL and, for some, it will not be easy to attain these thresholds as their access to the capital markets is limited, or there may be an adverse impact on their income statement. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  To date, the Single Resolution Board (SRB), the European resolution authority, has not taken a final, firm decision on the MREL, but everything suggests it will be demanding. At the Banco de España we advocate that the requirements should take into account the resolution strategy and should be prudent and adapted to banks’ economic and financial reality. In any event, cooperatives should build the concept of resolution into their planning and management, and continue working on the formation of voluntary and private mutual support mechanisms. Conclusion In sum, let me say that all the banking supervisors and regulators participating in this process are mindful of how important it is to finalise the Basel III review as soon as possible and of the significance of providing banks and market participants with certainty. I would not wish to conclude without reiterating the importance of a healthy and efficient cooperative sector, as it faces today’s challenges: the pressure exerted by the low interest rate environment on results, as is the case for other banks; the new regulatory demands; enhanced governance; the management and commercialisation of resources; and deeper association initiatives. Thank you for your attention.
0  100  200  300  10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10  400  Household debt to income in 2007, per cent Sources: Flodén, M (2014) and OECD National Accounts. (a) Change in consumption is adjusted for the pre-crisis change in total debt, the level of total debt and the current account balance. See Flodén, M (2014), ‘Did household debt matter in the Great Recession?’ available at www.martinfloden.net/files/hhdebt_supplement_2014.pdf. Our aim was to guard against an upside risk. In 2014 the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee’s central forecast was that in the medium term house price inflation would fall back and rise broadly in line with  9  The 2014 stress test was based on a scenario, in which house prices fell by 35% and unemployment increased to 12%. Cumulative losses on mortgages over 2009 to 2013 were very small, at around 0.3% of outstanding balances – compared to around 25% for consumer credit. They were somewhat higher in the early 1990s, when unemployment rose higher than in the crisis. 11 Bunn and Rostom (2014). 10  6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  6  nominal incomes. If that were to happen, we expected the impact of the FPC’s borrower-based policies to be small. But while this was the central case, the FPC judged that there was a material upside risk of mortgage borrowing growing more rapidly and house prices increasing faster relative to earnings.

The reforms of the past 10 years have also strengthened the resilience of the core banking system to liquidity shocks. 3  The illustrative scenario features a peak to trough fall in GDP of nearly 30%. Unemployment peaks at nearly 10%, house prices fall by 16% and Bank Rate is held at 0.1% over the three years of the scenario horizon. 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  5  The major UK banks went into the COVID crisis holding around £ trillion in high quality liquid assets, over 4 times what they had going into the global financial crisis. Their aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio is now below 100%, compared to over 130% in 2007. And they have pre-positioned assets at the Bank of England against which they could draw down around £ of liquidity.4  A simple thought experiment is perhaps the best illustration of this point. A similar pandemic could well have struck in the years before the financial crisis. Had it done so, the overall impact of the FPC stress test would have wiped out nearly all of the aggregate capital in the system and taken banks below their minimum regulatory requirements.5  We would now be dealing with illiquid banks in life preservation mode, cutting back all credit to hoard capital and to remain solvent – in other words a credit crunch and possible bank failures that would make the current economic crisis deeper and the recovery more painful and protracted.
25/29  The evidence available also reveals that households cease to meet their financial obligations when they have to forgo a portion of the regular income they receive or when they lose their jobs. But lending standards and price-setting policies play a key role in mitigating these impacts. Hence, a key factor in the monitoring of bank mortgage lending standards is the extent to which interest rates charged vary in step with the risk borne. Prudent behaviour would advise charging a higher interest rate the greater the risk assumed. In this respect we can see that, set against pre-crisis behaviour, where there was scarcely any relationship between certain risk characteristics of mortgage loans and the interest rate charged, the relationship is now positive and statistically significant. Nonetheless, we should also note that this relationship has gradually diminished in intensity in recent years, in a trend that banks should strive to reverse so as to have prices properly reflect all the costs and risks assumed. Generally, then, the main conclusion that may be drawn from the foregoing analysis is that Spanish banks do not, for the moment, appear to be significantly increasing their risk profile. That said, some factors do require close monitoring. 26/29  3. Resilience of banks to shocks  One way of analysing banks’ resilience to shocks is to subject them to stress tests. The Banco de España conducts stress test exercises annually for all Spanish banks.

As I touched upon initially, financial innovation and financial integration have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. These flows serve as an important catalyst for domestic financial market development, as reflected both in the size of the banking sector and equity markets, as well as the quality of institutions for supervision and regulation. In recent years, attention has been given on how macroeconomic policies should respond to the unexpectedly big wave of capital flows to many emerging market economies. Regardless of the form or way of these inflows, they create important challenges for policymakers due to their potential to cause overheating of economies. Emerging market countries have responded to address these concerns in a variety of ways, such as exchange rate alignments, efforts to neutralize the monetary impact of interventions through sterilization, and controls on capital flows. At this point, I should note that coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are necessary to attract high quality capital flows  BIS Review 21/2008  3  and to manage flows efficiently regardless of their type. Low inflation and prudent fiscal polices signal to investors the extent of government’s commitment to achieve macroeconomic stability and adds to the credibility of the government. On the other hand, efforts in the field of financial supervision and regulation, together with policies such as labor and product market reforms are important for the stability and soundness of financial systems in handling capital inflows.
However, it should not be assumed that this fall can be attributed solely to the crisis. Many other events have also affected the assessment. (Figure 3. GDP, hours worked and productivity). How large is potential GDP and how high is resource utilisation? I now intend to discuss what different methods have to say about the levels of potential GDP, the GDP gap and resource utilisation, and I will start by comparing the GDP gaps based on HP trends (HP gap) that the Riksbank usually presents with the GDP gaps used by the National Institute of Economic Research and the Ministry of Finance. The pre-crisis GDP gaps reported by the latter two are less positive than the GDP gap we publish, namely around 2 and 3 per cent respectively, as opposed to approximately 4 per cent. The fall up to 2009 is roughly the same according to all three, with the negative gap in 2009 thus being greater for them than it is according to our HP gap. (Figure 4. The GDP gap according to the Riksbank, the National Institute of Economic Research and the Ministry of Finance). The OECD, the IMF and the European Commission also report GDP gaps for Sweden. According to the OECD and the European Commission, the GDP gap for 2007 is on approximately the same level as the Riksbank’s HP gap, approximately + 4 per cent.

It can be argued that index funds distort the price of the targeted indices and that, as a result, the indices end up creating rather than measuring performance. ·  Last but not least, the impact of risk management techniques on market dynamics is particularly enlightening with regard to the question of asset price overshooting. Value-at-risk calculations have become a crucial element of the standard approach used by market participants to evaluate the risk inherent in their market activities and to set up exposure limits. Of course, central banks and financial institutions should continue to encourage the use of these instruments. But, in times of financial turmoil, the growing use of sophisticated risk management techniques by financial intermediaries might have had the paradoxical effect of amplifying the initial shock, exhausting liquidity and contributing to contagion  3  M. BORDO, B. EICHENGREEN, D. KLINGEBIEL and M. S. MARTINEZ-PERIA: “Is the Crisis Problem Growing More Severe?”, CEPR, September 2000. 4  BIS Review 28/2001  phenomena. Regardless of the intrinsic qualities of these risk management tools, we see that their growing use in the same fashion by all market participants may have produced pernicious effects. When market players rely on converging risk evaluations, they tend to take the same decisions at the same time, thus amplifying the initial shock to prices and trading volumes. All those factors have one consequence in common: they encourage homogenous behaviour and reactions to the detriment of the diversity that is indispensable to the smooth functioning of financial markets.
The spillovers from these projects are also benefiting the real estate market. Demand for properties continues to expand as we see mortgage loans growing at around 10 percent year on year in recent months. Financing conditions have also been favorable. Monetary policy stance remains accommodative and in full support of economic recovery. And, despite the slow economic growth, the overall credit and corporate bond issuance to the private sector continues to grow at around 7 percent. The Bank of Thailand would ensure that the cost of funds is conducive to the ongoing recovery, while also keeping a cautious eye on risks to financial stability. On the fiscal front, the government has become more effective in disbursing and implementing investment projects. Government relief and stimulus measures are also essential at difficult times, especially for those severely affected by adverse economic situations, such as from the current drought. But while taking care of the short-term issues, we must not forget to reckon longer term challenges facing the Thai economy. Thailand is in need of serious initiatives to upgrade and unlock our economic potential in the long term. In this context, we welcome many new initiatives by the government to push ahead with structural reforms. This brings me to the last part of my talk tonight on the way forward for the Thai economy, and how we and our partners like Japanese businesses may ride together toward sustainable prosperity.

During the bust phase of the asset price cycle, the associated credit crunch might lead to an economic downturn and a negative deviation from the objective of consumer price stability, and possibly even to deflation, which would exacerbate a financial crisis. An environment of abundant monetary liquidity can affect the risk-taking behaviour of investors and financial intermediaries. Ample monetary liquidity and financial market liquidity 23 could be indicators of the ongoing execution of arbitrage strategies, such as carry trades, and short-termist or myopic “search-for-yield” behaviour, which can temporarily distort the pricing of risk. 24 It is not low inflation itself but rather low rates of return, which could trigger “searching-for-yield” investment strategies, providing financial market liquidity to previously much less liquid markets and affecting relative asset prices. In fact, ECB research shows that there is evidence that monetary liquidity shocks have played a role in driving asset prices, particularly housing prices across OECD countries, during the boom phase of asset price cycles, and that these shocks have also to explain the negative effects on economic activity during the subsequent bust phase. 25 The intriguing aspect of this hypothesis, and of the associated empirical findings, is that the monetary policy stance might be perfectly appropriate for and consistent with the preservation of price stability over the medium term. Nevertheless, the potential implications for asset price boomand-bust-cycles could signal that the monetary policy stance could prove accommodative for maintaining price stability in the long run.