samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The Executive Board discusses the forecast at the second large meeting The Monetary Policy Department then presents its forecast for the main scenario to the Executive Board at the second large monetary policy group meeting. This takes place in week five, that is, approximately three weeks prior to the monetary policy meeting. The organisation of this meeting differs from the first one. The meeting is divided into two parts. The first part of the meeting is open to the majority of the employees of the Monetary Policy Department. The civil servants then report their outlook on the economy over the coming years. They present the results from any in-depth reports ordered by the Executive Board. There is now an opportunity for us Executive Board members to ask questions about and express opinions on the forecasts to the different sector experts. The second part of the meeting is held in a smaller circle consisting of the Executive Board, senior staff at the Monetary Policy Department, a couple of advisers and representatives of the Communications Secretariat. It is now that the Executive Board discusses and expresses opinions on the main scenario on the basis of its assessments. This may sometimes mean giving different weight to alternative macroeconomic scenarios, that is, the risks. The main scenario is then adjusted in accordance with the views of the Executive Board.

And monetary policy was well positioned to support the economic expansion and the achievement of the Fed’s goals of maximum employment and price stability. Risks to the Economy However, during the past month the outbreak and subsequent spread of the coronavirus has brought with it new risks to the economic outlook. This is first and foremost a human tragedy, and my deepest sympathies are with those who have lost loved ones. The virus and the necessary scale of the response to address the public health challenge will have near-term effects on the global economy. These repercussions have been especially strong in the hardest-hit countries, including China, South Korea, Japan, Italy, and Iran. We are now also hearing reports that some businesses here in the United States are being affected by supply disruptions and weakening demand. As people take precautions, we’re seeing concerns around the tourism and travel sectors, in particular. Disease outbreaks require a multifaceted approach, and the coronavirus is no different. This is primarily a public health issue, which will be fought on the front lines by doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals. Governments will also need to step in to support the healthcare response, and, if needed, to provide targeted relief to affected industries and workers through fiscal measures. Monetary Policy Central banks like the Federal Reserve also have an important role to play in addressing the economic effects of the coronavirus, ensuring that financial markets function effectively and providing support to the economy.
In other words, over the past decade the equity market no longer appears to have been a source of net new financing to the UK corporate sector. These patterns are, if anything, even more acute among US companies. Total buybacks by US S&P 500 companies totalled over $ billion in 2014, taking them back to their peak levels in 2007. Total payouts to shareholders, both dividends and buy-backs, are also back to their pre-crisis peaks, totalling almost $ trillion in the US, and £ billion in the UK, in 2014 (Chart 4). More generally, total payouts by companies have been on a steadily rising trend since the 1970s, from around 10% of total internal cashflow in 1970 to around 60% today (Chart 5). The macro-economic consequences of this behaviour are likely to be far from benign. The other side of the coin to high pay-out ratios from internal funds is low investment. There is both direct and indirect evidence of investment having been adversely affected by shorttermism on the part of either investors or managers or both. The indirect evidence comes from looking at the discount rates used in, for example, equity markets to assess investment projects. My own work has found evidence that these discount rates appear to be around 5–10% higher than would rationally be expected at the one year horizon (Davies and Haldane (2011)). And while that may sound modest, accumulated and compounded that would act as a significant barrier to longer-horizon investment projects. Moreover, this “excess” discounting has increased over time.

The aim here is to align managerial incentives with those of wider stakeholders, specifically creditors, so mitigating risk-shifting incentives. This is not a new idea. In their original paper on risk-shifting, Jensen and Meckling (1976) proposed structuring a CEO’s compensation such that it was aligned with the firms’ debt-toequity ratio. In practice, companies in general, and financial firms in particular, have fallen well short of that objective. Fewer than 1% of bank CEOs have been found to have remuneration packages with debt-to-equity ratios greater than their firms. 22 The new EU bonus cap rules also arguably weaken the link between performance and compensation as they shrink the proportion of variable pay and make it harder to cut back total remuneration. 23 Since the crisis, consideration has been given by both academics and policymakers to switching remuneration practices towards debt-like instruments (for example, Becht, Bolton and Roell (2011), PCBS (2013)). This appears to have had some policy impact. For example in Europe, payment in debt instruments is now permitted under the new Capital Requirements Directive IV (CRD IV). To date, however, there are only limited signs of remuneration practices having shifted significantly towards debt. UK banks provide one case study. Their structures remain heavily skewed towards equity, at around 50–75% of total pay, compared with around 5–15% in debt (Chart 10). Among non-financial firms, the balance of pay appears, if anything, to be even more heavily skewed towards equity. A second strand of the policy debate involves lengthening the horizon of remuneration contracts.
Recently, Thai universities have offered international courses, aiming to attract students from GMS countries, who express greater interest to study in Thailand. Health is another important dimension of people connectivity. An increasing number of citizens from the GMS have chosen to receive medical services from Thai hospitals. I am certain that this trend will continue to rise in the future. Ladies and gentlemen, Let me now turn to the fourth aspect of regional integration, financial connectivity, which is a principle area of policy that the Bank of Thailand, in collaboration with other agencies, will continue to drive going forward. Better connected financial systems support and underpin all other aspects of connectivity. Infrastructure development, trade and investment activities, and people mobility need wellfunctioned financial infrastructure and proper eco-system in order to thrive. In the past decade, financial regulators of GMS countries have made noticeable progress to promote financial connectivity. Examples include introducing a more accommodative regulatory regime to allow Lao entities to raise funds from the Thai capital market. As a result, since 2013, the Lao government and firms have issued baht-denominated bonds, worth 28 billion baht in total, to 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  support infrastructure projects in Laos. For the banking sector, the Bank of Thailand has encouraged banks to expand their regional presence to support growing trade and investment. As of now, there are 30 branches and subsidiaries of Thai commercial banks, set up in GMS countries.

Barbro Wickman-Parak: Economic analysis requires a cool head – my view of developments in Sweden and abroad Speech by Ms Barbro Wickman-Parak, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a meeting, Luleå, 15 May 2012. *  *  *  I would like to thank Magnus Wiberg at the Monetary Policy Department of the Riksbank for help with writing this speech. When we at the Riksbank decided on the repo rate almost exactly one month ago, I was one of the majority who wanted to hold the repo rate unchanged at 1.5 per cent and to keep the repo-rate path set at the February meeting. With regard to developments abroad, I pointed out that there was every reason to express caution with regard to international economic activity in the coming period. I also pointed out that we should continue to expect fairly sudden and dramatic changes on the financial markets. At the time of the April meeting we had seen the financial unease accelerate after a period of stabilisation at the beginning of the year. The focus was on concerns regarding Spain. Now the outcome of the elections in Greece has sent even larger shockwaves through the global financial markets, and this leads to other debt-ridden countries, such as Spain, being hit by greater unease. Let me say right now that neither I nor anyone else can know with any degree of certainty what this will entail.
The Bank has high 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  expectations for the association to play a key educational role to promote greater industry understanding on regulatory compliance and the latest industry trends, through holistic education and training program such as requirements under the relevant laws and best practices, risk management and consumer protection. Properly structured, the training and development program would result in higher professional standards of conduct and should strengthened safeguards against possible abuses and contravention of the law. Thirdly, as the collective voice of the industry, the association will provide the bridge for constructive engagement between the Bank and the industry. Through regular engagement, the association can play an effective facilitative role in addressing issues concerning developments in the industry, by providing meaningful feedback and input to the Bank or other relevant authorities. We have found over the years that industry associations can add tremendous value in consolidating fragmented views of the industry on important issues and could assist in formulating public policy. There are many benchmarks that the association can draw on, both in Malaysia and globally, in organising itself as an effective association. But of paramount, the players must be united in supporting the Association. Last but not least, the association is expected to undertake an active role in educating consumers on the services that the industry provides and in addressing consumer issues and complaints.

This was a resource that truly helped maintain lending volumes. A survey by OPORA RUSSIA — we are closely monitoring your survey findings — shows that businesses generally record a higher accessibility of loans in recent months. We appreciate this view. Nonetheless, we can see that currently loans are mostly concentrated with large banks, but we are confident that both banks with a basic licence and regional banks will be capable to significantly contribute to the small business development and become more flexible since they better understand clients’ interests and regional specifics. We are going to advance this segment of the banking system. Not only large banks have had access to our special-purpose instrument: 55 banks have used it, including regional banks and those banks that received corporate sureties. As regards loan restructuring, as you know, an important aspect is that we have been improving the financial system through resolution measures for many years, in order to make it resilient and capable to support its clients in challenging periods. We can see that the banking sector has really demonstrated its readiness to provide support to a considerable portion of its borrowers during this hard period. More than 80% of the restructured loans were under banks’ in-house programmes, and not because this was required by law. Since the beginning of the year, the amount of restructured SME loans has reached 819 billion rubles, which is over 15% of the SME portfolio.
The purpose of the HKMA intraday liquidity facility is to promote more efficient RMB payment flows between banks; and  (b)  The HKMA will also designate a number of banks active in the CNH market as Primary Liquidity Providers (PLPs). Banks that are designated as PLPs are committed to using and developing Hong Kong as the global platform for supporting their offshore RMB businesses. They are also committed to expanding their market-making activities in CNH market. In return, the HKMA will offer a repo line to each of the PLPs so as to facilitate more efficient liquidity management when they carry out market-making and other business activities in the CNH market. This bilateral repo line can be used by the PLPs as intraday or overnight liquidity management purposes. The HKMA is now finalising the list of PLPs and the necessary documentation. We hope to be able to announce the list of PLPs very shortly. Ladies and gentlemen, let me conclude by saying that the competitive edge of a successful financial centre depends crucially on its soft powers, not just on hard infrastructure. Hong Kong is uniquely well positioned to take advantage and play a pivotal role in the new era of China’s growth story and in the internationalisation of RMB. Hong Kong enjoys both first-mover advantages as well as many irreplaceable structural advantages, given Hong Kong’s very close links with the Mainland in trade, investment and finance under the “One Country, Two Systems” principle. However, there is absolutely no room for complacency.

As this new era of RMB internationalisation has just begun, we still have a long, long way to go as the offshore RMB markets continue to grow and mature, while the capital account controls in Mainland China are being gradually relaxed or lifted. In the early stages of this new era, the primary task of Hong Kong is to develop the CNH market and at the same time work with other financial centres such as Sydney, London or Paris to grow the pie, leading to win-win outcomes. As we move into the more mature stages of the internationalisation of RMB, the available policy headroom should be quite ample for the markets to flourish. At that time, the 2nd and 3rd elements of PIPs, i.e. Infrastructure and People/Products, would matter a great deal more if Hong Kong wishes to retain its competitive edge over the others. It will be up to our industry, financial firms and market practitioners to out compete the other centres in terms of product innovation and distribution of various financial products and services that best serve the needs of their clients. I am sure that the TMA, with the support of its members and the financial industry, will continue to play a leading role in developing the professionalism of the practitioners and in facilitating product innovation. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches
June and the first half of July showed the first signs of weakening inflationary pressure, this is still not enough to speak of a steady decline in the inflation rate. In July, households’ inflation expectations continued to rise. In these conditions, even one-off factors might have a longerlasting impact due to their secondary effects. To prevent this, it is essential to create conditions that would encourage the propensity to save. For this, we need higher interest rates. We should not tolerate high inflation expectations in order to prevent their anchoring at this high level and avoid a more significant increase in the key rate that would be needed further on in this case. The second topic is the economy. According to our estimates, economic growth sped 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  up considerably in the second quarter. High-frequency indicators show that Russia’s economy has bounced back to its pre-crisis levels. Output in two-thirds of the major industrial sectors already exceeds pre-crisis levels, and this upward trend continues. Oil production has not restored yet. Output has also not recovered in international air transportation and hotel and restaurant business. However, this was due to remaining anti-pandemic restrictions, rather than insufficient demand. Moreover, the pandemic drastically affected the structure of demand and supply. In my previous statement, I mentioned the changes caused by the transfer of a significant portion of employees to work from home, as well as the elevated level of inventories now formed by companies.

I would now like to discuss three questions in particular. The first is whether CSR is a stable concept or one that is still evolving? This concept broadly stems from that of sustainable development, which is defined as development that meets present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own. Its blueprint was set out at the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro (the first Earth Summit). It is based on the principle of development that is economically efficient, socially equitable and ecologically sustainable. CSR, whose initial objective was accountability, still largely appears to be an evolving paradigm closely linked to the current transition towards a new economic model. BIS Review 132/2008  1  In this respect, Rio brought to the fore the need for an ISO standard at the company level in order for companies themselves to take account of their impact and change their processes as part of a preventive approach. The UN addressed this dimension and brings together, under its aegis, the initiatives of the major companies that adhere to a relatively general charter. The Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development (also known as Rio Plus 10 or the Second Earth Summit), largely focused on companies wishing to take centre stage in the protection of the planet and adopt a proactive role. The ethical dimension of CSR lends strength to the questions of stakeholders and employees as to how their funds are used.
Consequently, the current overall situation of the Swiss economy remains difficult despite the many rays of hope with regard to the economic cycle. Also, the danger of deflation does not yet seem to have been entirely averted. We have not yet reached the moment for a change of direction in monetary policy in Switzerland. After analysing the available economic data and forecasts and taking various risk considerations into account, there is no need for the SNB to take monetary policy action at present. The SNB can afford to adopt a holding stance. However, this holding stance should not be mistaken for inactivity. The SNB continues its firm implementation of an extremely expansionary monetary policy and the unconventional measures launched on 12 March 2009. The Swiss franc money market is still being provided with a generous and flexible supply of liquidity, interest rates remain low, Swiss franc bonds are still being purchased to dampen the level of risk premiums on the Swiss franc bond market as and when needed and the appreciation of the Swiss franc will continue to be prevented. BIS Review 27/2009  1

Meanwhile, our economy requires more lending for companies’ operations and investment. Moving forward, we must understand which issues can be solved through regulation and for which it would be the way. This should never, under any circumstances, be pursued by reducing risk protection. We need to strike a balance between limiting risk in some sectors and stimulating others. This is a major conceptual challenge with no unambiguous answer. We will be discussing it here at the congress. Before addressing the objectives we set ourselves in individual sectors, I would like to say a few words about the most fundamental prerequisite for development – healthy competition. Encouraging competition is our unequivocal priority. What are we doing to promote competition? 4 / 11  BIS central bankers' speeches  First. Thorough market cleansing. In our opinion, low-quality competition is just as bad as none at all. Honest business should not have to compete with fraudulent market players. Our duty as the financial market’s supervisory body is providing an environment where effective and stable financial institutions reap the benefit. This means ridding the market of dishonest players. Second. Proportional regulation. It levels out the competitive playing field for players of different sizes, and helps the market cultivate niches where different types of financial institutions tie in with different types of clients and their needs. A year ago, in this hall we announced that we were planning to transition to proportional regulation in the banking sector.
Petroleum-related exports from mainland Norway are also included. 3  Share of home-owning households. Debt is here defined as gross debt less bank deposits. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Even though the price decline is putting a brake on exploration activity and the development of new fields, we can expect further advances in the new technology and its wider use. Looking ahead, we must prepare ourselves for an environment of lower oil prices compared with the levels seen in recent years. It would be unwise to act on the assumption that oil prices will again settle around USD 100 per barrel. It has long been clear that activity on the Norwegian continental shelf would decline. The fall in oil prices in recent months has accelerated and amplified an announced decline in activity. Norwegian exporters of oil-related goods and services to other oil-producing nations may also face a decline. This does not mean that the oil age is nearing an end. Nearly half of known oil and gas reserves on the Norwegian continental shelf have not yet been extracted.4 Over the past few years, large new discoveries have been made. One of them – Johan Sverdrup – will soon be ready for development. The Norwegian oil service industry can expect new orders. Nonetheless, the Norwegian economy must adapt to considerably lower demand from the oil sector. From being in a unique economic position, Norway is now headed for a period of restructuring.

BIS Review 11/2007  1  Ladies and Gentlemen, On the regulatory front, allow me to share with you what the future holds for the regulatory developments that would predominantly shape the future direction of the life insurance industry. The Bank's future regulatory orientation will be characterized by a heightened focus on, and alignment, with risk; anticipatory, rather than reactionary interventions; a clear goal to promote efficiency, innovation and competition by ensuring that regulation is proportionate in relation to its costs and benefits; greater use of incentive approaches to achieve desired institutional behaviours and outcomes; an expanded regulatory toolkit that leverages more extensively on the inherent checks and balances built into the system; and an increased focus on market conduct and harnessing active consumerism to reinforce prudential regulation and supervision. In this regard, I wish to emphasise that in the course of designing any regulatory framework, the Bank will continue to involve all stakeholders particularly the industry for better appreciation of new policies introduced. The insurance industry is expected to continue its positive growth momentum in the near term. Growth in the life sector should continue to receive support from the encouraging demand for savings and investment-driven products such as endowment and investment-linked insurance. The increasing awareness among the consumers of the importance of risk protection, relatively low penetration level and large mortality protection gap also underpin strong future growth opportunities for life insurers in the more traditional risk product lines such as term (including credit-related term) insurance.