samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
On 8 October, six of the world’s major central banks, including the ECB, cut official interest rates by half a percentage point in a coordinated move. Later in the month, the Eurosystem shifted the conduct of its monetary operations toward the injection of liquidity at fixed rates, with full allotment at the minimum bid rate, to ease funding concerns and to drive money market rates closer to official ones. A further half-point interest rate cut by the ECB followed in November, and yesterday we reduced rates by a further 75 basis points amid growing evidence that inflationary pressures are diminishing further. The crisis has so far had a limited impact on the domestic financial system and on the Maltese economy. While the latest data point to continued, if slower economic expansion in the third quarter, Maltese banks continue to benefit from an approach based on traditional intermediation between retail depositors and borrowers. Their funding model, therefore, eschews reliance on wholesale markets; they have substantial liquidity, adequate capital and prudent lending policies. Exposures to asset-backed securities or failed institutions are small, while lending in foreign currency to residents is limited. It would be naïve, indeed dangerous, however, to expect that the turmoil abroad will leave the Maltese economy and its financial system unscathed. First, Malta has a small open economy, highly dependent on trade. As the recession grips our major markets, Maltese exporters will be increasingly affected.

In my time today I will focus on my Bank responsibilities for payments and give a real-life example of why having real-time data matters and also point to how we could make payments data even more useful through the message that communicates the data. I will conclude with a brief recap on UK financial market developments this week and highlight the use we are making of real-time data to respond to those developments to meet our objective for financial stability. Use of real-time payments data The Covid-19 pandemic continues to impact on us in many ways and to change how we do things. In the context of today’s panel the pandemic acted as a catalyst for extending use of the Bank’s payments data. Right from its start in March 2020 we knew that the pandemic and the necessary response to it would have very serious but also very different impacts on different sectors of the economy. But it was much less easy to be confident of the scale of those differential impacts and over what time frame. Extracting a signal from an understandably very noisy and very uncertain situation was complicated by the fact that many of the sources we traditionally rely on were not that high frequency or were only available with a lag. To get a clearer and faster real-time snapshot of the economy, the Bank, like many other institutions, turned to new sources of more timely information.
The Ministry submits an annual White Paper to the Norwegian parliament where the management of the Fund, both strategic allocations as well as active management, is reviewed. The Office of the Auditor General performs independent reviews of the management. There is a clear division of responsibilities between the Ministry and the Bank. The owner decides on the long-term strategic allocation, represented by a benchmark portfolio, and this choice of strategic allocation for the Fund is the main determinant of the expected absolute return of the Fund. The Bank's main responsibility is to maximise expected return relative to the benchmark – within risk limits formulated in the mandate. Hence, Norges Bank has a mandate to engage in active portfolio management in addition to providing a cost-effective conversion of incoming petroleum wealth into financial assets. The Bank’s mandate has increasingly been adapted to the "future generations"-objective of the Fund with a stronger focus on tracking error as the sole risk limit. Some earlier restrictions on credit quality have been lifted, in light of the increased investment horizon of the Fund. Important decisions are presented to the Norwegian parliament in a White Paper before decisions are implemented. A recent example of such a decision is a proposal to increase the share allocated to equities from 40 per cent to 60 per cent, again reflecting the transition to an endowment fund with a very long horizon. Note that the absence of a formal liability side has an impact on how we go about constructing the strategic allocation.

The difficulties monetary policy is faced with when markets cease functioning normally has also been underestimated, despite previous experiences from, for instance, Japan. Monetary policy and financial stability overlap in several areas. Following the past year’s dramatic economic developments, it should be evident that insufficient financial stability leading to a major financial crisis seriously impairs the preconditions for monetary policy. Strategically important markets must be made to function in order to avoid a total collapse. Central banks have thus been compelled to undertake a series of unconventional measures, partly aimed at maintaining a functioning payments system and partly aimed at improving the functioning of the financial markets, thereby contributing towards the desired effect of the expansionary monetary policy. At the same time, there exists greater awareness of the fact that a monetary policy that does not adequately consider financial factors can lead to the accumulation of serious financial imbalances. Financial stability has been demonstrated to form an important restriction to the manner in which monetary policy can be applied in crisis situations. 3 Monetary policy models must become better at capturing the functioning of financial markets. In my opinion, the present monetary policy framework, in which monetary policy is aimed at stabilising both inflation and real development, still works well. However, monetary policy analysis needs to be developed, in certain respects, to enable us to make better forecasts within this framework.
This is partly because the after-effects of the financial bubble that burst appear to be more substantial and more protracted than previously assumed. It is expected that a number of countries will reduce their interest rates again, and that the level of interest rates in other countries will remain low for some time. In Norway, price inflation is lower than implied by the inflation target and will remain low in the period ahead. The krone has remained strong, partly due to the fall in international interest rates, weakening the impact of our interest rate reductions. Growth in the Norwegian economy is now likely to be weak. Although private consumption continues to show strong growth and oil investment is providing an impetus to the Norwegian business sector, labour market developments have been weaker than expected in our previous Inflation Report. Employment has fallen and unemployment is on the rise. House prices are falling and many commercial properties are vacant. It now appears that fiscal policy will have a more neutral impact on overall demand, and growth in public consumption and employment is no longer rising. Fiscal policy as drawn up in the Revised National Budget will therefore not contribute to locking in the strong krone. One encouraging development is that wage growth appears to have moderated more quickly than expected. This may partly be explained by the interim wage settlement this year, as in 1999.

2  BIS Review 25/2003  Kielland’s description of a financial crisis and the consequences were realistic. There was speculation then and there is speculation today, but in other kinds of financial instruments than at that time. The 1899 banking crisis in Kristiania was the most serious of the regional crises. The crisis was particular to Norway, following in the wake of the strong property boom and the subsequent crash in summer 1899. The next two banking crises, in 1920-1928 and 1988-1992, were far more severe than the earlier crises. There were particular reasons for each of the last three crises, but they also have much in common: 2 Asset prices rose quickly prior to crises. Each cyclical upswing had its speculation objects. Property prices and share prices for property companies rose to a very high level in the last half of the 1890s. Share prices, particularly in shipping and whaling, rose dramatically during the First World War, then fell markedly afterwards. In the 1980s, prices for dwellings and commercial property increased rapidly. Households and enterprises increased their debt more than their nominal income in the periods of expansion before the crises. High debt made them more vulnerable to loss of income or increases in real interest rates. The debt burden increased less in the 1890s and during the First World War due to a strong increase in nominal income. Under the gold standard, however, periods of growth in nominal income were normally followed by periods with a fall in nominal income.
But in typical Singapore fashion, we kept our cool to battle the crises and, at the same time, strategise to meet the larger challenges posed by globalisation. We formed the Economic Review Committee (ERC). The ERC came up with a comprehensive strategy to restructure, upgrade and transform our economy. The government accepted most of the ERC’s recommendations. We have since cut corporate and personal income taxes, reduced business costs, made wages more flexible, restructured the manufacturing sector, invested more in R & D (Research and Development) and revamped our education system. Our economy is now stronger and more broad-based than ever before. In 2006, our GDP was $ billion, 55% bigger than in 1998. Annual growth rate over the past 3 years averaged 8%, double the figure for the period between 1997 and 2002. This year, jobs are chasing after people. Two weeks ago, I attended the Gala Dinner for Merrill Lynch’s inaugural “Pan Asia Rising Stars Conference”. Several foreign bankers and business executives I met – some had not visited Singapore for many years and a few were here for the first time – told me that they were surprised and excited by the “buzz” in Singapore. It is not just the business buzz of the financial industry, the Integrated Resorts, the sizzling property market, and so on. It is also the glitz of our nightlife and our arts, culture and restaurant scene. How have we managed this quick and dramatic rebound?

For this very reason, the award ceremony for the best diploma thesis has become a consolidated activity of the Bank of Albania geared toward supporting promising students in the field of scientific research within the scope of central banking. This year, students also showed a high interest in presenting their diploma theses. We received 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  27 studies on a wide range of economic, financial, and legal topics focused mostly on the Albanian economy. It is a delight to see how these studies use contemporary research methodologies and valuable information intelligently to analyse economic phenomena, employing theoretical and empirical arguments. In spite of the challenge of choosing the most interesting studies, we now have our verdict on the “Governor’s Award for the Best Diploma Thesis 2018”. The selection has not been easy. Each year, we receive increasingly more qualitative studies in terms of research methodology, topic originality and methods applied in research. I take this opportunity to congratulate all the contestants for the high quality of the presented studies. I hope and encourage you to further enrich your theoretical and empirical capacities as you advance in your careers, wherever that may lead, in academia or as experts in specific fields. I hope you will be unremittingly engaged in scientific research, in a relationship of which only the starting date is known. Thank you and happy holidays! 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
After hitting an all-time high at the end of 2011, the current account deficit saw a major correction in 2012. Although there has been some deterioration in the 12-month cumulative current account deficit since early 2013, this is largely due to the gold market dynamics, which is a temporary factor. In terms of the current account balance excluding gold, the correction that started in 2012 has continued into 2013, albeit more slowly (Chart 11). 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  We expect real exchange rate and credit developments to support the economic rebalancing over the upcoming period. The real effective exchange rate depreciated after the recent nominal exchange rate developments and largely retreated from the levels that can be called excessively overvalued (Chart 12). We expect the current account balance to correct further in the forthcoming period amid expectations for a more acceptable rate of loan growth, a moderate final domestic demand growth and developments in the real exchange rate. This will cushion the Turkish economy against the potentially high levels of global uncertainty in the upcoming period by strengthening its financial stability and supporting the re-balancing process. In sum, uncertainty continued to reign over financial markets in the third quarter of 2013 and financial conditions tightened (Chart 13). The tightening of the index is mostly due to weak capital inflows, rising loan rates and higher market rates. 2. Macroeconomic developments and assumptions  Now, I will talk about the macroeconomic outlook and our assumptions on which our forecasts are based.

•  Financing new investment through state bonds could well prove inefficient and harmful for the Estonian economy as a whole, even if the investments are in good projects. The low unemployment and rapid wage rises that we see at the moment  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  would cause a large part of the extra money gained from the emission of state bonds to be lost, as infrastructure projects would cost much more than before. Large state construction projects that can only be temporary in nature would also cause economic and social problems in Estonia, because once the large projects finish, a great number of those working on them would find themselves unemployed, having left jobs in other sectors. •  It must be understood that Estonia already profits from the purchases of bonds by the central banks of the euro area. Financial markets act as a series of communicating vessels, so that when interest rates in one area fall, the effect is passed on to other areas. The lower interest rates in the euro area mean that Estonian companies and households can borrow more cheaply, and were it necessary the Estonian state could also borrow more cheaply. If easier financing conditions spur on the European economy, Estonian exporters will be among the winners, and this is the goal towards which the bond purchase programme is striving.
For example, in the case of an event with a binary outcome (where the event either occurs or not), the modal outcome can be assigned a probability that ranges from 50 percent to 100 percent. Finally, a problem with questions asking for a point forecast – “what do you think will be” or “by how much do you expect” – is that it is not clear whether the estimate individuals provide represents a mean, mode, median, or something else. Research also suggests that some respondents provide a point estimate that reflects varying degrees of loss aversion rather than just a pure forecast. Among the advantages of questions asking directly for the likelihood or “percent chance” of different outcomes are ease of interpretation, comparability across respondents, and the ability to measure subjective uncertainty. The consistency of a respondent’s answers can be checked using the laws of probability, and importantly, probabilistic questions permit elicitation of the quantitative measures of belief and uncertainty typically required in estimating economic models. Researchers can use a variety of methods to check the validity and information content of probabilistic subjective expectations data. First, one can look at response rates, reported ease and clarity of the questions used to elicit expectations, the use of focal points in responses, and the internal consistency of responses.

For example, there are five FOMC meetings remaining this year, so the “most likely” meeting could be one with 21 percent probability. In the SPD and SMP, we are careful to elicit the probabilities of the full range of possible outcomes. For example, the current mean probability that the next change in the fed funds target will be an increase is around two-thirds. BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  Probability versus point forecasts For many policy relevant variables, both the SPD and the SMP elicit respondents’ views on the entire distribution of future outcomes, and not only on their modal projections.42 Slide 10 provides a striking example of why this is important. The figure shows the projections for the federal funds rate at the end of 2017 (top panels) and 2018 (bottom panels) at three different times: December 2015, January 2016, and March 2016. For each panel, we show the point forecast (red vertical line) averaged across respondents in both the SPD and SMP. This point forecast likely corresponds to the modal path for the federal funds rate at the end of each year.43 The green lines depict the density forecasts, averaged across respondents, and the blue vertical lines show the mean projections implied by these density forecasts, which I will refer to as the “pdf-implied mean” in the remainder of this talk.44 Note that the average modal path is usually close to, but does not match, the average mode of the marginal distributions for the policy rate.
We trained them to deliver talks to the migrants in their native language on various aspects of using formal remittance channels. This helped not only to address communication barriers, but also encouraged confidence as the migrant workers could better connect and identify with the ambassadors. In our education efforts, bringing our programs to the locations where the migrant community live, work and congregate also had a significantly positive impact on narrowing a perceived power distance between formal MSB providers and workers. It also had the effect of creating a positive impression on the quality of services offered by MSB providers. This was also true for SMEs, with a positive effect observed between higher levels of proactive engagements with SMEs and businesses’ perception of MSBs. 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  In short, there are many factors that influence an individual or business decision to use MSB services, beyond cost and access considerations. The combined impact of even simple actions taken to address all factors is significantly amplified. Third, while greater transparency and competition have played a key role in driving down remittance costs, an excessive focus on price competition on the part of MSB companies would be misplaced. Our work under this project, including field studies that were conducted, affirmed that users of remittance services basically want safe, easy and fast, and affordable services. For some customers, safety, speed and convenience are often as, if not more, important than cost, with customers willing to pay a reasonable price for these benefits.

This is an impressive outcome, made possible only by commitment, enthusiasm and exceptional cooperation that has been shown by the project team and all our partners who are here today throughout these last two years. I am well aware of the numerous logistical and communication challenges that had to be overcome by the team and the industry, and the persistence that it took to break long-held perceptions before we were able to build momentum in our outreach efforts to deliver these results. So let me on behalf of Bank Negara Malaysia, join Faris in extending my congratulations to all who contributed to this important initiative. We are especially grateful to the World Bank for working with us to bring the Greenback Project to Johor Bahru – the first champion city in Asia, and for providing technical support in the project’s design and implementation strategies. It goes without saying that we could not have done this without the exceptional support of Yang Berhormat Datuk Bandar and your team at Majlis Bandaraya Johor Bahru. The city of Johor Bahru has been an exemplary host for the first Greenback Project in Malaysia. Johor Bahru can be proud of serving as a role model for promoting transparent, efficient and affordable remittance services that are contributing to more inclusive financial services for all individuals and businesses.
Ladies and gentlemen, The economic crisis, which occurred in 1997, caused the Bank of Thailand to review its role and task as the central bank of the country. This review pointed to a number of weaknesses in the Bank of Thailand's work in the past. As a result, the Bank has embarked on a comprehensive restructuring and modernisation programme aimed at improving the works of the Bank of Thailand to best serve the roles and responsibilities as a central bank. The strategy focused on 4 aspects, namely organisational structure and work process, human resource management, decision marking process, and database and information technology. The Bank of Thailand started the restructuring programme at the beginning of 1999 with the revamping of the management levels. Emphasis was placed on shorter lines of command, which facilitate fast and effective problem solving. The organisation is divided into five main business groups; namely, monetary stability, financial institution stability, corporate support services, financial institution rehabilitation and strategic capabilities. Objectives, roles, and responsibilities of each group are clearly stipulated. In 1999, the modernisation programme put the main emphasis on improving the work process.

This can reduce the supply-side flexibility of the world economy. Combined, these shifts can make the job of keeping inflation low more demanding. How this will play out is highly uncertain. But there is one thing I am certain about. The global economy must make an absolutely necessary transition to a low-carbon economy. There are evermore signals of the urgency to achieve that transition. The number and intensity of heat waves, floods and droughts are on the rise. The transition is fraught with uncertainty and proceeding too slowly. For each year the transition is too slow, the more likely it becomes that stronger and more costly measures will be needed later on. To reach the targets, governments have a range of instruments at their disposal. Carbon pricing is particulary effective in that it sends a clear message as to what we should do less of and what we need more of. The rising costs of emissions is one of the main drivers behind today’s investments in renewable energy and more energy efficiency solutions (Chart 9). We can see that price mechanisms work. Chart 9 Transition to a low-carbon economy Carbon price in the EU Emission Trading System. EUR per tonne of CO2e 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010  2013  2016  2019  2022  Source: Refinitiv Datastream  Norges Bank  Economic perspectives 2023  11  The transition will not be seamless.