samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Support for using macroprudential tools in the United States has also been bolstered by our experience during the financial crisis. The U.S. housing boom and subsequent bust might have been less severe had a set of macroprudential measures been in place at the time to limit the degree of leverage and speculative activity in the housing sector. The housing boom was fueled by optimistic expectations for house price appreciation, combined with lax underwriting standards embodied in such practices as no-doc mortgages and widespread speculative activity by investors. I remember, for example, the website, Condoflip.com, which says it all in terms of the degree of speculative fervor that was evident at the time. If underwriting practices had been held to high standards (e.g., strict mortgage service-toincome ratio limits had been honored) and speculative activity had been constrained (e.g., by lower loan-to-value ceilings for investors with multiple mortgage liens outstanding), this might have limited the size of the boom and subsequent bust. My own view is that while the use of macroprudential tools holds promise, we are a long way from being able to successfully use such tools in the United States. There are two major sets of difficulties. First, unlike monetary policy and microprudential regulation, there is not a welldefined framework for identifying emerging imbalances and applying macroprudential tools in response. A recent tabletop exercise conducted by a number of Federal Reserve Bank presidents, which I will discuss a bit later, indicates some of the difficulties here.

The emerging Asian economies again provided a particularly vigorous growth hub, and the rise in manufacturing production in China stimulated international trade. Consequently, all of Asia – and especially Japan – benefited from the strength of the Chinese economy. The European economy, meanwhile, lacked vigour in the first part of the year. This was due, in particular, to chronic weakness in domestic demand. In early 2005, Germany, France and Italy even experienced a situation of near-stagnation. Although the economic climate recovered subsequently, this improvement was often hesitant. To a large extent, the Swiss economy escaped the European lethargy due to its relatively diversified export markets. Our foreign trade sagged in the first quarter of 2005 but returned to a strongly expansionary course thereafter. Consumption was relatively firm even if the rate of growth remained extremely modest. Investments failed to show the strength exhibited in 2004 because of the hesitations about the soundness of the recovery. Even construction had a difficult start to the year because of the adverse weather conditions – despite the strong support provided by low interest rates. Although this industry subsequently rallied, it was unable to recover the strength it had enjoyed in 2004. For the year as a whole, the Swiss economy grew 1.9%, which was slightly below the figure reached in 2004. In the uncertain economic environment that prevailed in 2005, the Swiss National Bank did not continue with the normalisation of interest rates which it had embarked on in spring 2004.
Similarly, the bank’s profitability has steadily increased over the years. The Bank has been a good supporter of a number of economic activities in Zambia, especially in the mining, textile, construction, banking and agriculture sectors. However, going forward, we wish to encourage the Bank to invest more in loans and advances, which have remained low at 4% of total assets as at end of October 2008 compared to the industry average of 45%. Ladies and Gentlemen The new offices being commissioned today should enhance the Bank’s service delivery to its customers. We therefore wish to encourage the Bank to continue playing an active and effective role in stimulating economic activity through the provision of well structured financial products and services. Thus, boost growth in key sectors of the economy as well as enhancing access to finance and encourage more indigenous Zambians to establish relationships with the Bank. It is our expectation also that the Bank will expand beyond one branch and broaden its customer base and operations swiftly in order to consolidate the gains that have been achieved over the last 11 years. I thank you for your attention. BIS Review 162/2008  1

Government securities are used by central banks as collateral in managing market liquidity and implementing monetary policy through money market operations. Furthermore, given their low risks, they are used by banks and pension funds as investment instruments. These aspects need to be borne in mind when designing prudential treatment of banks’ sovereign exposures. This is particularly true of emerging and developing countries, as their financial markets are shallow and low-risk equivalents to government securities and central bank papers are hard to find. As I have already mentioned at the beginning of my speech, the CNB hosted the BCG workshop on the impacts of Basel III implementation on emerging markets and smaller economies three years ago. The workshop was efficient and successful, resulting in a memo highlighting the effects of the reforms on these economies for the BCBS and supervisors. I am happy that we are meeting here again to discuss regulation of sovereign exposures and other topical issues related to Basel III regulatory reform. I hope that this workshop will reach similar success. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you and I wish you success in your work. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Instead, discussion should be focused on how to make the use of leverage less procyclical, to identify those sources of leverage that are most productive and to better monitor the vulnerabilities that can result from excessive leverage. Conclusion The crisis offered a rare view into how our capital markets function under extreme stress. Those circumstances revealed vastly different degrees of robustness across alternative segments of our financial system. At one end of the spectrum, markets for certain dollar assets demonstrated considerable resilience to financial stress and were extremely appealing to investors in stress circumstances. At the other end, the crisis highlighted that segments of U.S. credit markets had structural shortcomings that must be addressed to ensure the viability of these markets going forward. Those shortcomings have necessitated two waves of policy response. The first wave was aimed at putting out the fire. To that end, the crisis demonstrated that U.S. and global authorities have the ability and willingness to respond in a manner that meets dollar funding needs in a time of crisis and that promotes broader market stability. The second wave is aimed at building a sounder financial system for the future. Those efforts are still underway, and the reform process may be long and involved. However, I am hopeful that many of the shortcomings are likely to be addressed, and that we will emerge from this episode with a more robust and efficient financial system. BIS Review 40/2010  7

Similarly, in our case, the Bank of Thailand recently launched the Financial Sector Master Plan 2, in which we outline the key principles and guidelines for further strengthening of the financial sector over the next five years. Chief among the agenda are our commitments to bring down financial transaction costs through further deregulation and promotion of more competition in the banking industry. The second element of financial soundness is the integrity aspect. That is, financial institutions must be sufficiently immune to “runs”, which I define loosely as correlated and large-scale withdrawals of deposits, triggered by sudden loss of confidence in the solvency of banks concerned. On this, a key lesson for emerging markets from the global financial crisis is that the push for financial market development must be accompanied by constant efforts to review and bolster as necessary the supervisory framework and standards, so that financial soundness can be ensured without compromising the financial system’s integrity. The third and last element of financial soundness is the stability aspect. The financial sector, while playing an important role in supporting the real economy, can at the same time be the source of risk and instability to the real sector. As we know, the spillover effects from financial to real sector can take many forms. For example, the tendency for financial institutions to extend more credit during economic upswings, and scale back lending precisely during downturns, can contribute to the amplitude of the business cycles.
Specifically, the central scenario of the UN assumes that, in net terms, around 25 million people will come to Europe over the 2020-2050 period. Therefore, a back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that holding the working age population constant would require at least three times the net migration flow assumed in the baseline scenario. Put another way, if Europe were to offset the projected decrease in the working-age population by receiving more migrants, it would need a net influx of around 2.6 million people each year over the next 3 decades, roughly twice the net migration flow Europe has received in the recent past. We cannot overstate the challenges these magnitudes pose from an economic, social and political perspective. 3  It is worth stressing that population ageing has become a global phenomenon. A closer look at the cross-country evolution of the old-age dependency ratio, that is, the ratio of the over65s to the working-age population, is illustrative of this trend. While in 1950 no country in the world featured an old-age dependency ratio above 20%, nowadays 59 countries surpass this level, including all but one European country. In 2050, according to the UN Population Projections, the group of countries with an old-age dependency ratio above 20% will double to 118, comprising most nations in Europe, North America and Asia.

By contrast, the role of non-banks such as investment funds, pension funds and insurance companies may increase since they are in a better position to offer the products that are in higher demand. As a matter of fact, in recent years non-banks have been increasing their share in the financial system as a result of different factors and not only due to demographic changes. In any case, the financial sector will need to adapt to these changes, offering new products that cater for the needs of the population. It is worth mentioning that these developments are taking place against a background of low profitability in the banking sectors in many jurisdictions including the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. In many cases, the ROE of the banking sector is not only well below levels seen before the crisis but it is also lower than banks’ cost of equity. 14  Ageing can also have consequences for the stability of financial systems. A permanent lower level of risk-free interest rates might foster a search for yield by financial intermediaries. On the one hand, this process would leave financial intermediaries and the final investors more exposed to shocks. On the other hand, the valuation of some assets might become too stretched, increasing the risk of sharp adjustments in the future. Against a background of ultra-low interest rates, in recent years some financial intermediaries, such as investment funds, have increased the average maturity of their bond portfolios and their exposure to exchange rate risks.
•  We will introduce by next year a new corporate structure for investment funds – the Singapore Variable Capital Company (S-VACC) • The S-VACC structure will allow asset managers to achieve greater synergies through co-locating their management and domiciliation activities. •  We have simplified regulations to facilitate the activities of VC and PE managers. • The increased availability of alternative investments like VC, PE, and infrastructure has helped to attract sovereign wealth funds and pension funds. •  We are strengthening the ecosystem for family offices. • The quality and capability of service providers of family offices – like lawyers, consultants and tax advisors – has deepened. By welcoming a broader range of institutional investors to set up base in Singapore, we aim to build a deeper and more diverse pool of capital for Asia. As global players invest in Asia, they will need solutions to manage their risks in the Asian time zone. As a global FX and derivatives centre, Singapore provides a wide range of risk management options for investors  http://www.imas.gov.sg/News-and-Publications/Speeches-and-Monetary-Policy-Statem... 21-07-18  Connecting Global Markets Supporting Asias Growth  •  Page 5 of 7  Singapore is the third largest FX centre globally after London and New York, and the largest in Asia. • Every day, over half a trillion US dollars of FX is traded here. • All top 5 global banks have their regional FX trading desks here. •  Singapore has the most diverse range of futures and options traded in its three exchanges.

• In FX alone, there are more than 30 futures and options. The next stage in our growth as a risk management centre is to become an electronic trading hub in Asia. •  As Asian FX flows grow, Asia will become an increasingly important FX market where price discovery takes place. •  We are working with key partners to build up the e-trading infrastructure in Singapore. •  This will improve trade execution and reduce latency in pricing, thereby lowering transaction costs for investors. Besides connecting global investors to Asia, Singapore is well placed to facilitate financing opportunities for Asia. We are building platforms to facilitate bond issuance and infrastructure financing in Asia. •  This will in turn broaden the suite and depth of Asian investable assets for global investors. Singapore is among the choice destinations for Asian bonds issuance. •  Singapore’s bond market has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of around 9% over last five years to reach $ billion. •  The bond market ecosystem remains a big draw, with several companies issuing in Singapore repeatedly. • For instance, Hitachi International Ltd has tapped Singapore’s debt market frequently for more than a decade, raising over $ billion in total. Investors are able to access in Singapore a variety of bonds, denominated in G3 as well as Asian currencies.
7  This was due, in part, to the fact that the effective federal funds rate was a volume-weighted mean. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently changed the calculation of the effective federal funds rate from a weighted-average mean to a weighted-average median to make it more robust. In addition, it started publishing a broader measure of bank funding costs, the overnight bank funding rate. 8  The list of counterparties can be found at this link: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/expanded_ counterparties. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  been one of our stated purposes since the Federal Reserve Act became law more than a century ago. Until a few months ago, many conversations about the long-run framework for monetary policy implementation considered at least two options; on the one hand, we had the old system based on reserve scarcity inducing competition for reserves, and, on the other hand, we had a theory about how competition in a range of money markets would pull market rates up in line with the interest rates administered by the Federal Reserve. The old system certainly had flaws, many of which were exposed during the crisis, but it had worked reasonably well. And a system that works reasonably well is often more appealing than one that exists only in theory. The successful liftoff has brought theory into practice, and the results have been good so far.

Following their pre-university programmes, Imran aspires to be a Mechanical Engineer, Hajar is keen to read Chemistry while both Ying Xin and Nur Shazlin aspire to be Doctors. I am confident that all of you will do your best and will contribute for the future of the nation. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  In addition to the Kijang Emas Scholarship award, every year the Bank also awards scholarships to 50 high achieving SPM students for them to pursue their undergraduate studies abroad with the objective of them being part of the Bank’s future talent pool. The Bank has put in place a structured, holistic and collaborative Scholar’s Development Programme to support all of our scholars throughout their studies. The programme aims to develop high-quality and well-rounded scholars with leadership qualities as the next generation of young talent who will be the leaders of tomorrow for the Bank and our nation. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
It must be borne in mind that models are no more than a highly simplified and limited image of the real world. While their simplicity does make them very useful in the work of identifying risks, it is also perhaps their chief disadvantage. Models fail to catch a great deal of what is happening in a dynamic and complex environment. Events in the autumn of 1998 and the problems at that time in connection with the American hedge fund LTCM are a telling example of the limitations of risk models, or perhaps rather of errors in the ways they are used. Firstly, there was the evident difficulty in separating the management of market risks from credit risks. As a result of major shifts in market prices, the credit risks, which had seemed to be negligible initially, suddenly became considerable. Loans are often provided against collateral in the form of securities; the securities are not pledged for their full value, which leaves a margin for unforeseen events. This buffer, however, is often relatively small. Additional collateral, it is said, can always be called for if market prices make this necessary. Alternatively, the existing collateral can be realised. There has been a tendency to disregard both the potential credit risk in arrangements of this type and the possible refinancing and liquidity risks. What happened with LTCM in the autumn of 1998 showed that market value can deteriorate so rapidly that there is not enough time for calling in and receiving additional collateral.

Today, all the Swedish banks have voluntarily strengthened their capital bases by more than the Basel regulations require. Banks in many other countries have done the same. At the same time, the concept of bank sector solvency has been increasingly undermined. Many risks are not on the balance sheet. It is therefore more relevant to consider the ratio between total risk exposure and the capital base. With the expansion and growing complexity of financial market operations, it has become increasingly important that banks are capable of managing the risks in their business. The financial turbulence in recent years has underscored this and banks are also more determined to have such a capability. The  BIS Review 9/2000  2  capacity to understand, monitor and control internal risks is thus featuring more and more prominently in the organisation of financial enterprises. A major aspect of this work has been the development of more advanced methods for the quantitative measurement of risks. As one might expect, most progress has been made in the measurement of market risk; the extensive trading in financial instruments provides a good supply of price statistics and this is a considerable help when it comes to estimating market risks. Much work is now being done in many places to construct models for a better management of credit risks, which are still by far the largest risk category for banks. The difficulties here, however, are far greater than in the case of market risks.
Fostering a customer-centric culture encompasses fair and equitable dealings with customers to engender greater trust and loyalty among customers and serving customers in good faith by extending products and services that are appropriate to their financial requirements and circumstances. Greater innovation must therefore be complemented by higher levels of service quality. Greater attention on excellence in customer service requires continuous investment in staff development, which will be a vital part of the process. Harnessing the technology to deliver distinctive customer experience that combines the right mix of convenience and value is also an essential part of the process. In addition,  BIS Review 55/2006  5  adequate emphasis and resources need to be accorded to protecting customers' privacy and safeguarding their interests. In order to make a quantum leap forward, it is vital to continuously invest in human intellectual capital so as to create a pool of talent, skill and expertise that will drive the performance of the financial system. Skilled individuals are needed to be able to deliver high value-added products and services, adopt advanced business practices and have the necessary competence to build confidence in the financial market and trust of the consumer. Initiatives have been taken for putting in place specialised training organisations as part of the infrastructure for the development of highly skilled workforce for the financial sector.

Elvira Nabiullina: Current economic environment and monetary policy in Russia Statement by Ms Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Bank of Russia, at the State Duma of the Russian Federation on the Bank of Russia Annual Report for 2014, Moscow, 16 June 2015. *  *  *  Good afternoon, distinguished colleagues! While introducing the Bank of Russia Annual Report, I will give a brief overview of our activities such as monetary policy, banking and financial market regulation and supervision, and the national payment system. Before passing on to the report, I would like to briefly describe the current economic situation, the environment, in which we implement our policy. The last year was a troubled one, oil price fall and financial sanctions emerged as serious challenges to the Russian economy. The economy has slowed while decline in investments became manifest in the period of high oil prices and rather low interests rates. This determined the specifics of the current situation – unfavourable developments in external conditions overlapped structural economic slowdown. The situation was especially challenging as the economic downturn coincided with high inflation. Currently, we have managed to curb inflation. According to our forecast, an economic growth (quarter-on-quarter) is expected to resume later this year. Certainly, a lot will depend on the efficiency of the joint efforts of the Government and the Central Bank. The observed improvement and financial stabilisation must be supported by structural changes. They are indispensable for a sustainable economic growth. These include a better business climate and higher labour productivity.