samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Transparency because enhanced public information on institutions as well as on financial instruments is the only way we have to avoid contagion and herd behaviour in times of difficulty. Holism because, technology and globalisation helping, we have progressively built global finance on the basis of the very close interconnections of all markets, all institutions, all economies. We must continue to improve our full understanding of the functioning of the financial system as a whole. The Financial Stability Forum gathering banking, insurance and market surveillance authorities, central banks, international financial institutions, treasuries etc., was the first major illustration of this necessity to address the global financial system as a whole. We have to reinforce considerably this holistic approach. And Anticyclicality because a number of rules and regulations, on the one hand, and of behaviours of public and private institutions as well as of markets, on the other hand, have a tendency to be largely procyclical, amplifying the booms as well as the busts in the cycle. We must look at all parts and parcels of global finance with a view to diminishing progressively their procyclical components which implies, in particular but certainly not exclusively, eliminating as much as possible asymmetry in the treatment of booms and busts and extending as much as possible, where needed, the time horizon adopted by all the institutions concerned. Many thanks for your kind attention. BIS Review 17/2008  7

Fadilj Bajrami: ECB regional cooperation programme with central banks in the Western Balkans Address by Mr Fadilj Bajrami, Vice Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, on the occasion of the third Programme Steering Committee Meeting of the ECB Regional Cooperation Programme with central banks in the Western Balkans, Pristina, 27 March 2015. *  *  *  Dear Governor Hamza, Dear Deputy Governor Gjoni, Dear Mr. Fehlker, Dear Mr. Chlad, Representatives from central banks, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am glad to be here, in Pristina, with you today, on the occasion of the third and final meeting of the Steering Committee, to officially mark the successful completion of the joint cooperation programme between the ECB and the national central banks of the Eurosystem, on the one hand, and the central banks of the Western Balkans, on the other. The inclusion of the three central banks in this programme, which aims to strengthen their institutional capacity and align their operations with the central banking standards of the EU, is of enormous importance for the region, given the role of central banks in the EU accession process. Namely, this regional approach of the ECB allows raising the level of compliance with the EU standards and policies, but also creates an opportunity to advance the cooperation between the central banks in the region and the central banks of the EU.
Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput: Central banking amidst shifting ground Welcome remarks by Dr Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the BIS-BOT conference on "Central banking amidst shifting ground", Bangkok, 2 December 2022. *** Governors, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. It is a pleasure and great honor for me to be welcoming so many distinguished members of the central bank community to Thailand. Thank you for making the journey here from near and afar. Let me also extend a warm welcome to speakers and panelists joining us on-line today. We truly appreciate your participation in the conference. I would like to also express my sincere appreciation to the BIS for helping usorganize and host this event. During a period where the world is grappling with challenges that threaten to pull us apart, the BIS has continued to serve as a cornerstone of central bank and regulatory cooperation acting to pull us together. Indeed we are all here together in large part due to the convening powers of the BIS. This year marks the 80th anniversary of the Bank of Thailand. This conference is an opportune moment for us to take stock and reflect on how far we have come and chart the way forward. In light of the rapid and seismic changes we have experienced, such reflection is needed more so now than ever.

To see through the noise of rapidly changing circumstances and distill the essence that policy should respond to. It will require humility in our understanding of the world so that we can adapt to incoming information and seek broad input from all stakeholders. And it will require staying focused on achieving our core mandates, ensuring that expectations for our policy goals are commensurate with the tools we have while recognizing the potential unintended side-effects of those tools. For 80 years, the Bank of Thailand's commitment to growth, stability and prosperity of the Thai economy has been unwavering. We will remain steadfast to this commitment in  3/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  navigating through the uncertain terrain ahead. Thank you all again for being part of this conference and I look forward to learning from your insights. 4/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
Today this is the case in just a few countries, of which Sweden is one. Monetary policy’s interaction with fiscal policy will be important, at both national and EMU level, for the perceived credibility and consistency of economic policy in general. A constructive dialogue is therefore needed between the ECB and the governments of the euro countries. The arrangements are not yet clear but an intense discussion of this and other matters is now under way in Europe. The Treaty provides a number of opportunities for contacts between the two spheres. Functional economic structures must also be in place so that the single monetary policy can establish low inflation without eliciting unnecessary economic tensions. A matter of particular importance in this context is the workings of the labour market. A labour market that functions properly reduces the risk of regional unemployment and thereby of political problems that could ultimately pose a threat to the monetary union. Temporary factors  BIS Review 68/1998  -5-  The discussion of the euro’s development has included the point that the introduction of the single currency will trigger widespread portfolio rearrangements, mainly by private investors but also in public reserves. The euro will alter the composition of exchange risks in investors’ portfolios and this could result in flows to restore the degree of diversification. Investors who achieved diversification previously with holdings in German marks and Italian lire, for example, will have to adjust their portfolios when both these currencies are replaced by euro.

Philipp M Hildebrand: Ten theories on the economic relationship Switzerland Europe Summary of a speech by Dr Philipp M Hildebrand, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, to the Arbeitgeberverband Basel, Basel, 8 September 2004. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The relationship between Switzerland and the EU is close in so many ways that it appears almost stronger than that among many member states themselves. The debate on a possible integration into the EU as a logical consequence should be as broad-based as possible. Economically speaking, the issue has become more pressing since the introduction of the euro, as Switzerland is now surrounded by a single-currency area. Switzerland’s weaker economic growth is also frequently quoted as an argument in favour of integration, since the necessary domestic structural reforms would then be easier to realise. However, one tends to overlook the fact that the national authorities would continue to be responsible for implementing reforms and that, moreover, the absorption potential of autonomous monetary and fiscal policies would be forfeited. Even with an independent policy, Switzerland is in a position to outperform if it again focuses on its strengths of flexibility and openness. The independent monetary policy has helped to keep inflation in Switzerland at a low level for decades. This and the diversification properties of the Swiss franc make capital cheaper in Switzerland by approximately 1.5 percentage points (interest premium).
Ardian Fullani: Overview of Albania’s latest economic and financial developments Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, on the Monetary Policy Decision-Making of the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council, Tirana, 27 March 2013. *  *  *  Today, on 27 March 2013, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania reviewed and approved the monthly Monetary Policy Report. Based on the most recent monetary and economic developments in Albania, and following the discussions on their outlook, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged, at 3.75%. The Council notes that there are appropriate monetary conditions to ensure the achievement of the inflation target in the medium-term period, providing, at the same time, the required monetary stimulus to boost economic activity. Let me now proceed with an overview of the economic developments and key issues discussed at today’s meeting. *** Annual inflation was 2.5% in February, down by 0.2 percentage points from January. The lower inflation was primarily driven by the falling oil price, due to the base effect of the environmental tax rise in 2012 and the falling global prices. Overall, inflation continues to be determined by the rise in food prices. Their inflation accounted for about 90% of February’s headline inflation. Other basket prices have generally been stable and making low contribution to headline inflation. In the macroeconomic aspect, the general economic and monetary conditions have contributed to keeping inflation low.

In light of the poor consumption and investment levels, which have reflected in the decline of imports by 8.1% during this period, this tendency has improved the external position of the Albanian economy further. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Albania’s trade deficit shrank 32.5% in January. The developments in the external sector of the Albanian economy reflected in improved foreign currency demand and supply ratios, contributing, in turn, to a stable exchange rate. The Albanian government pursued an accommodating fiscal policy in the first two months of 2013, expressed in the increase of public expenditure and widening budget deficit. Budget expenditure increased at an annualised rate of 1.3% in January and February. This increase was reflected in both current and capital expenditure. Amidst the sluggish economy, budget revenues continued to contract, registering an annualised fall of 0.8% over the months under review. This performance of public expenditure and revenues increased the fiscal deficit by about 5.1%. Reflecting upon the expected economic and financial developments, the Bank of Albania has been pursuing a stimulating monetary policy. Through the constant key rate cuts and liquidity injections into the banking market, the Bank of Albania has aimed at ensuring more appropriate monetary conditions to meet its inflation target in the medium-term period. The financial market evidences low liquidity and inflation pressures, which, in turn, have enabled the pass-through of monetary easing into the money and primary market.
The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements showed that $ trillion of FX products were traded daily in 2016 – and the London market, the largest single centre, has grown by a third since then. That suggests that global FX turnover may now be more than 20 times the equivalent measure of global economic output, across an exceptionally wide range of products, participants and financial centres (Chart 1). For analysts, investors and policymakers, movements in floating FX rates provide a fast and comprehensive synthesis of market perceptions of economic news. And a huge empirical literature finds little evidence that excess returns are systematically predictable: a formal definition of ‘efficiency’. Even a harsh examiner would score FX markets ‘very good’ on this heading. Chart 1: The global FX market at a glance  Sources: London Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee April 2019 survey, Bank for International Settlements triennial surveys, Bloomberg LP, International Monetary Fund and Bank calculations. 3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  3  A resilient market is one in which markets continue to function in good times and bad, ensuring that prices give a consistently accurate signal about the balance of demand and supply. Again, the experience here is positive. FX markets have rarely ‘closed’.

At the same time, however, this situation is sub-optimal in terms of market-wide functioning: pricing may be inefficient, perhaps materially so, and other elements of the service offering fall short of best practice. Collective, market-wide action to improve competition and standards would benefit this firm and many others – raising all ships. But the firm itself feels powerless to drive that change by itself. It’s that missed opportunity that is ‘bad’, or perhaps better put, ‘sad’. The third and final stylised storyline is definitely ‘ugly’. It involves a large and regular buyside user of FX markets which chooses to operate through a single relationship bank, which also provides custodian services. It places all of its FX business with the bank to work through over an extended period. It has no 8  See for instance https://newsroom.nex.com/news/04092018/nex-markets-experiences-a-reduction-in-hold-times-and-reject-rates-as-aresult-of-the-fx-code-of-conduct, which shows that, for one of the platforms in Chart 4, hold times have fallen from 93 to 37 milliseconds since introduction of the Code, with 97% of trades with the top 10 liquidity providers now being filled at the original quote price. 9 https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/65002 8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  8  connections to other venues, does no material TCA, and receives no specific timestamping on its trades. Although it believes it makes no economic sense to vary its FX practices, in fact its trades are of a size, regularity and complexity that it would pay the client materially to shop around.
Figure 2  Monetary policy interest rates (1)  U.S. Multilateral nominal exchange rate (2)  (percent)  (index, March 1973=100)  4,5  4,5  160  160  3,5  3,5  140  140  2,5  2,5  120  120  100  100  80  80  60  60  4,0  4,0 3,0  3,0 2,0  2,0  1,0  1,0  1,5  1,5  0,5  0,5  0,0  0,0  08 U.S.A.  09  10 Japan  11  73 78 83 88 93 98 03 08  Eurozone  (1) Gray area shows forward curve. Dotted line shows forecasts in September's IPoM. (2) Increase denotes a depreciation of the dollar against main trading partners. Last figure corresponds to November. Sources: Bloomberg and U.S. Federal Reserve. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 3 Net investment flows towards emerging economies (*) (billions of dollars, accumulated in 12 months) 140  140  105  105  70  70  35  35  0  0  -35  -35  -70  -70  Stocks  Bonds  Total  (*) From investment funds investing in emerging economies. Source: Emerging Portfolio Fund Research.

Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the January 2013 Inflation Report, Ankara, 29 January 2013. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests, Welcome to the press conference held to convey the main messages of the first Inflation Report of the year. Today I will talk about recent global and domestic developments besides the CBRT’s inflation forecasts that are accordingly updated. I will now present an overview of the report, which will be published on our web-site shortly. The Report typically summarizes the economic outlook underlying monetary policy decisions, shares our evaluations on macroeconomic developments and presents our medium-term inflation forecasts which were revised in view of the developments in the last quarter, along with our monetary policy stance. In addition to the main text, the Report includes nine boxes entailing significant and up-to-date analyses on various topics. For instance, one of these boxes presents an analysis on the level of credit growth rate which will prove reasonable and healthy for Turkey in the period ahead. Moreover, there is a summary of two papers examining the effects of the CBRT’s latest policies on the expectations and volatility of the foreign exchange rate. In the Report, there are also analyses on the current account balance, global risks, accounting of inflation forecasts, tax adjustments on the tobacco products and the sensitivity of tax revenues on the economic circumstances.
Movements in the demand for broad money, relative to spending in the economy, reflecting changes in the way different assets and liabilities are used in transactions or shifts in portfolio preferences, have no implications for spending in the economy or the path of inflation. They make the relationship between money growth and inflation unpredictable. That contributed to the poor outcomes when explicit money supply targets were used to guide monetary policy in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Changes in the supply of broad money, however, will lead to an imbalance in the relationship between money and prices. Either spending and the price level will adjust or the central bank will have to alter its policy rate to eliminate the change in the supply of money. The practical problem facing all central banks is how to distinguish between shocks to the demand for money and shocks to its supply. After a period of rapid financial innovation during which shocks are predominantly to the demand for money, it is understandable, though unfortunate, if monetary developments are given insufficient attention in the analysis of the inflation outlook. How should a policymaker respond to developments in money and credit? One approach is to ignore them on the grounds that they contain no incremental information about the outlook for inflation. This approach – which is compatible with many modern models of inflation – may well appear appropriate when money growth is associated with shocks to the demand for money that have few, if any, implications for spending and inflation.

Challenges for the next decade  I want to devote the remainder of this lecture to the challenges facing the Monetary Policy Committee over the next ten years. That is not because I see major fault lines in the present arrangements. On the contrary, the careful institutional design that lay behind the construction of the MPC has proved its worth. Nor is it because I share some commentators’ boredom with a system that has remained largely unchanged for a decade. After all, in the area of macroeconomic policy, boredom is a good thing. Rather, it is a conviction that to remain successful the MPC must always be engaged in a process of continuous improvement. The anchoring of inflation expectations has been central to the stability enjoyed by the UK economy over the past decade. The key lesson from economic theory is not to take those expectations for granted – they depend on the actions of the MPC. Inflation expectations have been anchored because the MPC has responded to events that have pushed the outlook for inflation away from target, and households, businesses and financial markets have understood and anticipated our responses. So the main challenge facing the MPC is to keep doing whatever is necessary to keep inflation on track to meet the target. In modern models of inflation, monetary policy is represented by a “reaction function” that is sufficient, in that model, to pin down inflation and, therefore, inflation expectations. But that just assumes away the challenge facing us.
The first of these factors, namely trade tensions, have already been reflected in the lower growth of global trade in 2018 (4%, compared with 5.3% in 2017), which does not prevent them from continuing to pose a significant downside risk, subject to the future of the international negotiations currently under way. 1 See Macroeconomic projections for the Spanish economy (2018-2021): the Banco de España’s contribution to the Eurosystem’s December 2018 joint forecasting exercise.

The latest estimates point to a significant increase in public expenditure on pensions, healthcare and long-term care deriving from the surge in the dependency ratio, which even in the most optimistic demographic projections is set to rise from 25% at present to over 50% by 2050. In the case of the pensions system, the 2011 and 2013 reforms included some adjustments that managed to significantly offset the effect of the expected increase in the dependency ratio in the long term. However, the 2018 Budget and the Budget for 2019 being discussed here today, mark an easing of the entry into force of those mechanisms, as they delay the application of the sustainability factor until 2023 and, in particular, they entail a return to the system of annual revaluation of pensions in accordance with the CPI. According to Banco de España calculations, the permanent reinstatement of this indexation system would entail an additional increase in expenditure of more than 3 pp of GDP in 2050. In consequence, in order to ensure the financial sustainability of the public pensions system, additional measures will be required on the revenue or the expenditure side, or on both sides, to offset that extra burden.