samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Second: It is important for the growth potential in the economy that we maintain a broad sector in the mainland economy that works under intense competition so that we maintain and strengthen the incentive to acquire knowledge and to be innovative. Third: It is important that we bear in mind the issue of distribution across generations and that we manage the wealth as an asset. BIS Review 13/2003  5  1. From petroleum to financial wealth Per cent of total wealth  8  Petroleum wealth  7  Financial wealth  6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1999  2030  Source: Long-term programme 2002-2005  2. A Demographic Challenge 1000 persons 3000  Ratio 4 Number of persons in labour force (left-hand axis)  2500  3 labour force / pensioners (left-hand axis)  2000 1500  2  1000 1 500  Number of pensioners (left-hand axis)  0 1970  0 1980  1990  2000  2010  2020  2030  2040  2050  Source: National Budget 2003  6  BIS Review 13/2003  3.

The slowdown in global growth has been more pronounced and spanned a longer period than we had expected. The Norwegian economy has also felt the effects of this. Norges Bank has therefore lowered the sight deposit rate from 7 to 5.5 per cent since 11 December, most recently on 5 March. The interest rate differential has narrowed. Since mid-January, the krone has depreciated, partly reflecting expectations of lower interest rates. Monetary policy has been relaxed. There is uncertainty associated with developments in many of the factors that will influence inflation ahead, among others the exchange rate. This implies a gradual approach to the conduct of monetary policy. Increased spending of petroleum revenues will have implications for Norway’s industry structure. High demand for goods and services that require domestic resources, necessitates higher employment in the sheltered sector. This labour has to be recruited from the exposed sector, or through the natural increase in the labour force finding its way to the sheltered sector. Even if employment and output in Norwegian manufacturing industry fall, developments for Norwegian enterprises may not necessarily be only negative. Some enterprises may be at the cutting edge of technology, and increase their efficiency in pace with the rise in costs in Norway. Others may relocate labour-intensive activities abroad. The scaling back of manufacturing still involves a risk. It makes the economy more vulnerable; the foundation for learning, innovation and development may be undermined when a smaller share of the business sector is exposed to intense international competition.
Iceland’s sovereign credit rating soared during the years before the crisis, and Icelandic banks’ credit ratings followed in its wake. In fact, perhaps they rose higher than was warranted and was good for us. In spite of the ensuing nosedive, we managed to keep the sovereign rating on the bottom rung of investment grade, apart from two years in Fitch Ratings’ speculative category after the first Icesave referendum. Keeping Iceland’s ratings in the investment-grade category cost an incredible amount of effort, and other countries that have gone on an IMF programme in recent years have seen their ratings from Moody’s and S&P fall to speculative grade. Some of them have managed to rise up faster than Iceland has, however. Studying the rating agencies’ reports shows which factors will be most important in order to improve Iceland’s sovereign rating and thereby pave the way for the banks to follow suit. Among them are continued reduction of public debt levels and sound, focused economic policy that provides stability throughout the ongoing upswing. The liberalisation of the capital controls is an extremely important factor, but it could work both ways. Successful moves towards liberalisation without jeopardising stability will have a positive effect, but disturbance of economic and financial stability will do the opposite. My assessment of this, and of conversations with the rating agencies, is that it is probably not realistic to expect an improvement in our sovereign rating in the very near term.

More importantly, it is to avert a sharp slowdown in economic activities. Financial liberalisation Bank Negara Malaysia has also remained committed to the objectives of the Financial Sector Master Plan (FSMP) issued in 2001. The recently announced liberalization measures, for example, forms part of the concluding phase of the FSMP which is to liberalise the banking sector by allowing for the increase in operational flexibilities, product offering and, the issuance of new licenses by 2011. But, as capacity and institutional building efforts continue to be pursued, it must be complemented by enhancements in regulatory, supervisory and surveillance framework to preserve the integrity and resilience of the financial system. Clearly this is the distinction which must be made with de-regularisation per se. Islamic banking Islamic banking also remains as one of the key agendas under the FSMP. Also in the recently announced liberalisation measures, we will issue up to two new licenses given the growing demand and the need to give further boost to the MIFC initiative. As we have more than two decades of experience in this area, Bank Negara Malaysia will continue to build on this competitive advantage to ensure Malaysia remains at the forefront of global Islamic banking. It is therefore encouraging to note that Islamic finance has continued to demonstrate its evolution and strong growth as assets have expanded by 22% to RM192 billion in 2008 alone and now accounts for 15.0% of the total assets in the industry.
BIS Review 5/2010  1  In addition, it is common knowledge that Zambians prefer to be in formal employment rather than engage in entrepreneurial activities on a full time basis. The small number of educated Zambians engaging in entrepreneurial activities limits the scale of indigenous businesses as evidenced by the non participation of Zambians in major sectors of the economy like mining or manufacturing. It is however, important to realise that individual entrepreneurs as well as small and medium sized enterprises form the engine of economic and social development as they generate the much needed employment for our people. Hence the need to encourage all efforts aimed at stimulating entrepreneurship. Distinguished Invited Guests, our institutions of higher learning play an important role by molding and developing innovative and creative mindsets amongst our young people. With this belief in themselves, young people can be productive, take responsibility in their respective communities and ultimately drive our economy forward. We need to remind ourselves that Google was founded by students; Facebook was founded by a student; and even Microsoft was formed by Bill Gates as a student. Ladies and Gentlemen, let me assure you that the Bank of Zambia is committed to ensuring the availability of finance to viable entrepreneurs including small and medium sized businesses.

Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, the contribution of financial services to individual entrepreneurs as well as small and medium sized businesses cannot be over-emphasised. As you are no doubt aware, following the liberalization of the financial sector in the early 1990’s, the financial sector in Zambia has evolved rapidly spurred by increasing competition. Similarly, policies and the legal and regulatory frameworks have been developed to take into account the fast changing liberalised environment. These developments have resulted in a considerable increase in the number of banks and other financial service providers. Therefore, the banking sector has over the last few years, witnessed significant growth in consumer lending. As a matter of fact, on a sectoral basis the “personal loan” category has been the largest recipient of total credit in the recent years and accounted for 22% in November 2009. Small and Medium Enterprises have also significantly benefited from credit expansion. The resultant credit expansion has no doubt brought significant benefits to the economy as resources are increasingly channeled through to the lower end of the market. However, most of the credit extended by banks and microfinance institutions is targeted at individuals in formal employment or already established enterprises. Only an insignificant amount is extended to start-up initiatives or the informal sector. This has been exacerbated by the inability of entrepreneurs to articulate and sell bankable projects through robust business plans.
The Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency (SAMA) encourages banks operating in Saudi Arabia to meet market demands and provide those services. Currently, all banks operating in Saudi Arabia provide Shari’ah-compliant services, and this activity is rapidly growing. The size of this activity differs from one bank to another. Some banks only provide Shari’ah-compliant products and services, and others provide such services and products through some specific branches or units. We, at SAMA, supervise and regulate Shar’iah-compliant activities in accordance with the same practices applied to conventional commercial banking businesses. Hence, standards of capital adequacy, liquidity, and other supervisory and monitoring requirements apply on Shari’ah-compliant institutions and banks. SAMA, in cooperation with Saudi banks and  2  BIS Review 53/2010  financial institutions, has deep-rooted international standards (such as those set forth in Basel II and those prescribed by the IFSB) for risk management, corporate governance and internal controls. Dear audience, There are many challenges posed to Islamic banking such as finding new and various opportunities for development, innovation of new tools, boosting its human resources in all fields including in risk and liquidity management, promoting costumer service level, improving skills and expertise for promoting the understanding of Shari’ah teachings and applying them in new banking and finance areas. In addition, it is appropriate for Islamic Financial Institutions to increase efforts to train human resources scientifically to enhance their capabilities and to conduct further studies to update Islamic services and products and improve Islamic banking in the long run.

Moreover, it is necessary to use uniform accounting and auditing standards to ensure safety and stability of Islamic banking. It is also encouraged that Islamic financial institutions merge to increase their capital and have more liquidity to finance their investments. Finally, Islamic financial institutions need to steer efforts towards good corporate governance, good risk management, transparency, and financial disclosure. I hope that the Islamic banking industry will achieve further prosperity and success in the future. Thanks again to the Central Bank of Syria for hosting this conference and for the interest in Islamic banking, and I think it is timely and wise to choose this topic for the conference. I wish all success for this conference and the participants and I thank you all for your kind attention. Wassalmu Alikum Warahmatu Allah Wabarakatuhu. BIS Review 53/2010  3
Just to give you an example, we do not have enough accountants in the government service. When I talk to the police, the CID, the Attorney General’s Department, all these departments they do not have accountants. They cannot analyze when they see a balance sheet in any corporate case, they do not know how to handle it. There is a desperate shortage of manpower, partly because the accountants in this country can get much better salaries when they work for the private sector. Now how do we bridge this gap? I think given that the Central Bank is a very secure service – maybe we do not pay as much as the private sector but we do give security of tenure, you all get EPF and pensions – these sort of long-term prospects will attract good people to this institution on continued basis. I have tried in my own way to fight with the government to get increases in wages for all of us and also reinstating the pension and I hope that will make it much more attractive for people to work for this institution and keep you from moving away into the private sector. But in the process we also have to develop our skill sets and really organize and prepare ourselves for the challenges of the future. The future I think is going to look very different from the past in this country. We are now reaching a level of normalcy which most of us have never experienced in our lifetimes.

So we can provide that real leading edge. Our people are all over the world. Wherever you go, if you look at expatriates, Sri Lankans in any country, anywhere in the world – I have been to the Caribbean, places like Barbados, even there you find Sri Lankans. And they are doing very well in their professional endeavours. So we have to reach out to this diaspora, as I call it, and ensure that they also come and help us but already within the country, we have a sufficient pool of people who really can lead the charge, not just in-terms of raising Sri Lanka’s profile but also attracting foreign investment and other resources which will help this country provide leadership in this region in the decades ahead. So remember that it is a great challenge for all of us, this institution is going to be at the epicenter of this country’s efforts to develop itself. President Maithripala Sirisena who visited us, a few weeks ago, made it very clear that his main objective is to see that people’s incomes increase. That is his objective. He has spelt out his objective. How do we achieve that? That is where we have to sit now and brainstorm. To me the key challenge is how to raise productivity. Productivity is very important, output per capita. This is the key element that we have to utilize.
The impact of monetary policy occurs with long and variable lags. Our analyses indicate that a substantial share of the effects occurs within two years. A time horizon of two years when setting interest rates allows monetary policy to contribute to stabilising production. This horizon prevents monetary policy in itself from causing unnecessary fluctuations in the economy. The sharp rise in labour costs in recent years carries with it a potential for higher unemployment. The interest rate is an effective instrument for countering lower demand and growing unemployment when measures to stimulate demand do not translate into higher wage growth or unstable financial markets. However, there is little monetary policy can do to prevent an increase in unemployment that is driven by high cost inflation. A pre-condition for an effective interplay between wage settlements and monetary policy is that the response pattern in monetary policy is known and consistent. When the response pattern in monetary policy is known and consistent over time, the social partners can take into account monetary policy responses when negotiating wages. In 2002, wage growth was higher than we had expected up to the wage settlement in the spring of 2002. In spite of the rise in unemployment, the wage settlement in 2002 indicated that the social partners still perceived the labour market as tight. Preliminary figures indicate annual wage growth between 5½ og 6% in 2002, which is substantially higher than projected.

Just as a pebble dropped into a lake disturbs the water not just at the point of impact but ripples outward far from the origin, changes in the federal funds rate influence the prices of financial assets more broadly and this, in turn, affects the broader economy. An important insight of modern monetary theory is that this transmission of monetary policy to the broader economy through its many channels works best when the central bank is transparent about its goals, policy strategy and approach to implementing its strategy. In this case, market participants and households both understand and can anticipate actions by the central bank. By doing so, the transmission channels of monetary policy are enhanced. This places considerable importance on effective central bank communication. Recognizing this, the FOMC has undertaken many initiatives over the years to improve its communications with the public. These include providing clarification in terms of the goals of monetary policy, discussions of the FOMC’s broad policy strategy, as well as FOMC participants’ ongoing explanations of their views on monetary policy. As part of this effort, I provide a comprehensive update on my outlook for the economy and monetary policy several times during the year. Once a year we publish our staff’s judgmental economic forecast. We have also provided in the Liberty Street Economics blog discussions of an internal staff modelbased economic forecast. In addition, we now regularly release our real-time forecast of “current quarter” real GDP growth.
For fiscal policies, which continue to be largely a national responsibility, the Treaty sets out a framework of surveillance and disciplining mechanisms in order to maintain sound public finances. These indispensable cornerstones of the institutional framework agreed in Maastricht have been confirmed by the Constitution recently signed by the Heads of State and Government in Rome. The Stability and Growth Pact, which was agreed by all governments in 1997 after the signing of the Maastricht Treaty but before the launch of the single currency, sought to provide additional incentives for maintaining fiscal discipline at the national level by operationalising the excessive deficit procedure of the Treaty. It also specifies a commitment to achieving medium-term budgetary positions “close to balance or in surplus” and incorporates multilateral surveillance procedures and the exchange of information in conjunction with medium-term stability programmes submitted by national governments. Assigning the overriding objective of price stability to the single monetary policy is an example of the benefits of a clear division of responsibilities between different policy actors. The delegation of the single monetary policy to an independent central bank enhances credibility, increases transparency and also facilitates accountability. Similarly, the Stability and Growth Pact provides a basic set of rules for the conduct of sound and disciplined fiscal policies by national governments, while in principle preserving sufficient room for manoeuvre for the operation of automatic stabilisers without infringing the 3% ceiling for the deficit-to-GDP ratio.

They are our investment returns from past economic restructuring and reforms that were put in place, and they are the qualities that we need to preserve and to further expand upon by continuing with economic restructuring and reform. I probably have used up my allotted time. I hope the talk has been useful, and again I want to thank the Rotary Club of Bangkok South for the invitation. Thank you.
It is part and parcel of an optimal allocation of resources – including capital – and of a financial system that enhances growth and welfare. But there can  1  Schumpeter, J. (1934), The Theory of Economic Development, Duncker & Humblot,Leipzig. Trans. R. Opie (1934), Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 2  King R, Levine R. (1993), Finance and Growth: Schumpeter might be right, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, No. 3. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  be such a thing as excessive indebtedness. And indeed, the indebtedness of banks, sovereigns and households was growing exceptionally strongly. For instance, on a global scale, the ratio of domestic credit to GDP increased from 74% in 1980 to around 138% in 2009.3 This very high level of indebtedness is considered to have been a key feature of the crisis. This raises two major questions in my mind. First, what is the reason for the disconnect between our initial perception of financial development as being something positive, and the observed dismal outcomes? And, second, what lessons can we draw from our diagnosis? Market failures, behavioural biases and regulatory design failures When our economic system malfunctions, it is natural to try and identify sources of what we generically refer to as “market failures”. Typical market failures include market power, information asymmetries, external effects and public goods. Uncorrected, these traditional market failures give raise to sub-optimal outcomes. To analyse the case at hand it is useful to extend the list of these usual suspects.

This bias is prevalent in complex and opaque situations which are surely predominant in the modern financial system. Turning to the indebtedness of sovereigns, we cannot put the blame for excessive indebtedness on financial incentives. But the overweighting of current benefits and the overdiscounting of future costs can easily be attributed to electoral considerations and the finite career of elected politicians, careers which become shorter when they cannot “seduce” their electorates. At a cognitive level, I would also put the blame on another factor that could be called a “Keynesian bias”. Here, I refer to the conviction that countercyclical policies should be activated in downturns to mitigate the social cost of output and employment losses, but that they need not be reversed in upturns. This conviction is based on the view that there is no natural, theoretical or even apparent practical limit to state indebtedness, at least for developed economies. This cognitive bias is, in my view, a major explanation for the observed structural deficits in government accounts leading to an ever-rising debt to GDP ratio. In the OECD as a whole, for instance, the public debt to GDP ratio has increased from 70% in 2000 to 103% today! While we can dispute the precise diagnosis, we cannot disagree with the fact that the present crisis should and will serve as a wake-up call. Sovereigns, like banks, need to build up a buffer ahead of potential unfavourable economic developments.
Demand-side factor are especially important for companies, which attribute their low demand for credit to the shortage of investment projects (figure 8). Considering the usual revision to the growth projection range for the current year that we must do in this MP Report, the Board estimates that GDP will expand between 1% and 1.75% in 2017, while for 2018 it foresees a range between 2.5% and 3.5%. The changes owe mainly to the fact that mining activity fell more than expected in the first months of this year and that its subsequent recovery has been slower, as the growth prospects for the rest of the sectors have not changed much. Thus, it is still believed that the return to growth rates in line with potential growth and closing gaps, is consistent with an economy that shows no major imbalances, a gradual dissipation of some of the factors that have hindered a better performance in the past few years— such as the sharp drop in mining investment in the last three years—and the recovery of confidence indicators. Plus a more expansionary monetary policy and a greater external impulse than in recent years. As for fiscal policy, it is assumed that the consolidation announced by the Government will continue (table 1). On the external front, the data of recent months do not show great divergences with respect to forecasts. Developed economies continue to show signs of recovery in a context in which their inflation indicators have stabilized and their monetary policies remain highly expansionary.

Figure 9 Latin America (*) 2017 growth outlook  Headline inflation  (annual change, percent)  (annual change, percent)  5  5  11  11  4  4  9  9  3  3  7  7  2  2  5  5  1  1  3  3  0 mar.15 Mar.15  0  1  1  mar.16 Mar.16 Argentina  mar.17 Mar.17 Brazil Chile  14 Colombia  15  16 Mexico  17 Peru  (*) As per responses to Bloomberg survey. Source: Central Bank of Chile. 17  Table 2 International scenario 2015  2016 Mar'17 Report  Terms of trade Trading partners' GDP World GDP at PPP World GDP at market ex change rates United States China Eurozone Latin America (excl.