samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
However, these averages hide relatively strong fluctuations over the course of the year. At the beginning of 2003 inflation rose rapidly and during a couple of months it actually exceeded the upper tolerance limit of 3 per cent. However, it had fallen back by May and was once again in line with the 2 per cent target. The downturn continued throughout the remainder of the year, particularly for CPI inflation. The fact that CPI inflation fell more than UND1X inflation was due to the interest rate cuts made earlier in the year. In December, CPI inflation was 1.4 per cent, while UND1X was 1.7 per cent. The upturn at the beginning of the year was mainly due to rising electricity prices caused by supply problems in the hydroelectric power companies’ reservoirs and by unusually high demand resulting from a cold winter. Oil prices also rose and contributed to the higher inflation rate. The high energy prices had an impact on several sub-components of the CPI. For instance, housing costs and various prices linked to transportation activities rose unusually quickly during the spring. When adjusted for energy prices, the path of inflation in 2003 was much more stable and remained within the interval of 1.2-1.9 per cent. Small deviations from target Despite the fact that inflation fluctuated substantially over the year, we can conclude that the average CPI deviation from target level was relatively small in an historical perspective; around half a percentage point, compared with approximately one percentage point during the period 1995-2002.

We can now see that the economic upswing is continuing to strengthen gradually. Industrial activity has made some progress; export demand is accelerating and firms are relatively optimistic about the future. Capacity utilisation is also continuing to increase. Households’ expectations regarding their own finances and the Swedish economy are once again more optimistic, after a decline at the end of last year. Retail trade sales indicate a good level of consumption. A slightly stronger development in real disposable incomes, partly due to lower inflation, continuing low interest rates and rising asset prices, is expected to benefit consumption in the near future. Given this background, we have found no reason to make more than a few marginal changes to the overall picture of growth we have been outlining since last autumn. We now believe that economic growth will amount to just over 2½ per cent on average over the coming two years, which is a tenth of a percentage point more than our previous estimates. However, the annual outcomes differ slightly more because of the fact that the figures for the current and coming years are affected by changes between the years in the number of working days. This has no major significance for our view of resource utilisation, as both production and demand are affected. The conclusion of our assessment of economic activity is that the economy will approach full resource utilisation at the end of the forecast period.
The aim of the setting-up of a one-stop consumer education centre is to address information gaps that may exist. The programme also aims to broaden the consumers' horizon by enhancing their knowledge on the new and more innovative ways of conducting banking. Internet banking, for example, is a fast and convenient mode of conducting banking transactions that has yet to gain widespread acceptance amongst banking consumers. With greater access to information on this, consumers can be better informed on the advantages of this form of banking. Any fears or apprehension on this mode of banking may be removed thus allowing for greater convenience derived from banking via desktops in the comfort of the home or office. BIS Review 4/2003  1  Increased access by the public to information will also increase the level of awareness not only of the rights of consumers but also on the responsibilities of both the consumers and financial institutions with regard to the financial products and services being offered. Consumers should be aware of their rights and how best to seek redress if there is dissatisfaction with the products or services purchased. Through active consumerism, banking products and services will need to keep up with the expectations of consumers and this will inherently contribute towards improved banking products and services.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I believe that a balanced and judicious use of monetary policy tool has and will continue to play a critical role for ensuring long-term macroeconomic and financial stability. As always, the Bank of Thailand will strive to create a stable economic environment in which businesses can prosper on a sustainable basis, so that Thailand will continue to be the destination of choice by long-term investors. Let me close my remark by thanking the Netherlands business community for the substantial contribution to the Thai economy. I hope that the relationship between our two nations will continue to flourish. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Investors probably bore in mind Iceland’s high sovereign rating in their decisions but ignored the risk that the króna might still depreciate, given that the real exchange rate was far above the average for the past quarter-century. At least, this risk was obscured by high interest rates. In the turmoil in early 2006, various investors in glacier bonds, institutional investors in particular, are likely to have closed their positions from autumn 2005 and thereby contributed to the depreciation of the króna, losing sizeable funds in the process. Glacier bond issuance has gone in waves, largely in line with global movements in carry trades. It was substantial in autumn 2005, dropped sharply in the first half of 2006, then picked up in the autumn and has been fairly large since then. Currently the outstanding amount of glacier bonds is equivalent to roughly a third of GDP. The first issues matured in autumn 2006 and several others since then. Maturities have not sent tremors through the FX market, even when relatively large issues mature. This is consistent with the experience of countries such as New Zealand, where “kiwi bonds” denominated in the New Zealand dollar have been issued for much longer than glacier bonds. Large issues of glacier bonds will mature shortly and it cannot be ruled out that they will cause some unease. There have been a number of effects from the glacier bond issuance.

The Bank’s capital was also boosted. The main rationale for increasing the reserves and capital was to strengthen the Bank in performing its functions in a much expanded financial sector, and to address comments from rating agencies and others about the Bank’s inadequate foreign liquidity relative to Iceland’s large foreign debts, which are overwhelmingly in the private sector. There was no other motive behind boosting the reserves and the Central Bank has underlined the importance of not creating moral hazard. Unease in the markets lasted until mid-2006, when it calmed down significantly. By then, the króna had depreciated by one-quarter and around mid-year the real exchange rate was close to the twentyfive-year average. In historical terms it was much more normal than in the second half of 2005, i.e. before the depreciation in the first half of last year. This is an important fact to bear in mind, i.e. that the króna depreciated from an unsustainable and far higher real exchange rate than was compatible with external balance of the economy. The change was actually normal and necessary, and formed part of the pressing external adjustment of the economy. Since the middle of last year, the króna has been fairly stable. It has fluctuated within a relatively narrow corridor which it has only moved beyond in a few exceptional cases. So far this year it has strengthened. Since the beginning of 2007 the nominal exchange rate has on average been 14% weaker than the average for the last quarter of 2005.
As we don’t have a crystal ball, we can only wait and see what will happen in the re-pricing of assets across the globe as and when interest rates begin to normalise. In the meantime, it is crucial we are well-prepared for possible turbulence and shockwaves. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  17. But, I believe Hong Kong is on the right track. While we have been at the receiving end of massive international capital flows for several years, prompting a rise in inflationary pressure and overheating in the property market, we have acted swiftly to contain the adverse impact of such unprecedented monetary easing policies. Since 2009, the HKMA has undertaken six rounds of countercyclical prudential measures on mortgage lending, coupled with other supervisory action on bank capital and liquidity, to enhance the resilience of the banking system so it is better equipped to cope with future shocks. We have also launched a series of measures to contain credit growth, and recently we have further required banks with relatively fast credit growth to ensure they have stable funding sources to support that growth. 18. The prospect of a tapering in quantitative easing in the US has already caused jitters on global financial markets, including fund flows and exchange rates in some regional economies. Such volatility may continue, if not magnify, in the next couple of years. Therefore, we must remain vigilant against the possible spillover effects from other economies, as well as any other emerging risks.

Norman T L Chan: Can central banks save the world? Keynote address by Mr Norman T L Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the 19th Annual Hong Kong Business Summit Luncheon, Hong Kong, 25 November 2013. *  *  *  C K (Chow), Stephen (Yiu), distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. 1. It has been five years since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. The Crisis – followed three years later by the European Sovereign Debt Crisis – exposed the weaknesses of the global financial system and the vulnerabilities of the global economy. Today, peripheral countries in Europe are suffering a sharp contraction in their economies, and major advanced economies are experiencing very weak growth, if any at all. The economic output of several European countries, including the UK and France, is still below the levels prior to the Global Financial Crisis. The US, which seems to be the only bright spot among the advanced economies, still hasn’t recovered in full the 8.7 million jobs it lost following the Crisis. 2. Confronted by this extremely difficult environment, it was not surprising that central banks in the advanced economies began taking unprecedented steps to lower interest rates as far as possible. And, once the rates hit rock bottom, they began introducing different forms of very aggressive quantitative or credit easing.
This contraction in fiscal space represents a grave challenge to the implementation of critical investment expenditures in the education and health sectors and in building infrastructure that supports the proper functioning of the market economy and expands its reach, particularly into the rural areas, where the majority of the poor live. With deteriorating fiscal positions in the donor Government, there also remains a real risk of cuts in donor flows to  2  The MDGs are to: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger; achieve universal primary education; promote gender equality and empower women; reduce child mortality; improve maternal health; combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; ensure environmental sustainability; and develop a global partnership for development. 2  BIS Review 128/2009  developing countries. In Zambia for example, Government revenues during the first half of 2009 were 25% below the projections in the 2009 Budget, largely reflecting lower trade taxes as well as lower donor inflows. For Africa, as a whole, recent estimates by the IMF are that budget deficits will drop from a surplus of 2.8% of GDP in 2008 to a deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2009 – with fiscal outturns deteriorating across both oil and non-oil commodity exporters. The global financial and economic crisis has also impacted Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and credit flows in Africa, with serious consequences on the ability of African economies to build their productive capacities.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Launch of the consumer education programme Opening remarks by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the launch of the consumer education programme at the Central Bank of Malaysia, 30 January 2003. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, The consumer education programme being launched today is a further development that represents an important step forward in the modernisation of our financial system. We have already seen the significant progress that has been achieved by the banking sector in the restructuring and reform process, in the capacity enhancement of the banking institutions and in the overall development of our financial infrastructure. The ultimate objective of this progress is to contribute towards enhancing the growth and development prospects of our nation. The strengthening of the banking sector needs to be translated into enhanced effectiveness and efficiency of the banking institutions in meeting the changing requirements of our economy. How consumers can expect to benefit from this progress will depend on how well informed they are on matters relating to financial services being provided. The consumer education programme being launched today represents an important element in the overall strategy of enhancing the consumer protection infrastructure. Consumer education and awareness is essential in an environment that is becoming increasingly more complex and sophisticated.
However, the quality management for this database, which is provided by  BIS Review 50/2008  5  Secondly, the ECB could support ongoing market initiatives to improve transparency by offering its expertise in the international standardisation of definitions and classifications (looking, for instance, at how to define a covered bond, a mortgage prepayment rate or the residency of a bond issuer or holder, or considering ways of consistently classifying counterparties). This could include dialogue with the financial industry in the context of the possible enhancement – under consideration by the European Commission – of the supervisory disclosure requirements under the so-called Pillar 3 of the Capital Requirements Directive so that the information to be disclosed is based on clear definitions and reported in a standard format and with sufficient frequency and timeliness. Thirdly, as regards the Short-Term European Paper market, the ECB is also involved in the actual compilation and publication of relevant statistics, and such transparency may come at a premium in the current circumstances. In general, more statistical data may be collected by NCBs on an ad hoc basis, from selected key players, for instance in relation to particular types of financial innovation. I also invite the STC to contribute to the enhancement of the financial literacy of euro area citizens and to further improve the accessibility of its statistics for specific target groups. Conclusions European policy-makers need to have at their disposal a wide array of timely, high-quality statistics on which to base their decisions.

Jean-Claude Trichet: A strategic vision on euro area statistics – the ECB’s view Speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the 4th ECB Conference on Statistics “A strategic vision for statistics – challenges for the next 10 years”, Frankfurt am Main, 24-25 April 2008. *  *  *  Colleagues, fellow central bankers, ladies and gentlemen, I would like to welcome all of you most warmly to the Fourth ECB Conference on Statistics. This conference continues our tradition of regular high-level dialogue between the compilers and users of statistics, including policy-makers, analysts, academics, the media and the financial industry. At the same time, this provides us with an excellent opportunity to take stock of the progress achieved concerning the availability and quality of euro area statistics and exchange views on the strategic vision for their further development. While much has been achieved over the past ten years and ECB statistics are widely used, euro area statistics should keep pace with the rapidly changing economic and financial landscape in Europe, to meet new needs, for instance in relation to the ongoing financial turmoil, and to be produced by means of a highly efficient production network, so that costs and response burdens are kept to a minimum. A particularly successful feature of the recent rapid enhancement of euro area statistics is the very close collaboration between the ECB, notably its Directorate-General Statistics, and the European Commission, notably Eurostat.
It is important to introduce regulations for risks related to activities of this type so that they can be limited. In a globalised world this is also important to Sweden. In addition, the Basel Committee is also  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  working with a regulatory framework to limit large exposures and a number of frameworks relating to the derivatives market. All of these are included in the reform package that the Basel Committee hopes to be able to finalise this year. New focus: application of the regulatory frameworks and the calculation of risk weights By now it is probably obvious to most of you that the Basel Committee and other standard setters have had a lot to do: the list of regulations is long. However, important as it is to design effective regulatory frameworks, it is just as important to ensure that they introduced in a consistent way around the globe. Only then will they be effective and credible. During my chairmanship, I have therefore considered it to be an important task for the Basel Committee to extend its efforts to monitor how various frameworks are implemented. Today, the Basel Committee conducts this work at several levels. For example, the Committee is currently assessing how the capital adequacy regulations in Basel III have been incorporated into national regulatory frameworks. Six assessments have been carried out so far and three are in progress, including the assessment of the EU.

As a reaction to the crisis during the 1920s, the difficulties of the 1930s with the Kreuger crash and in particular the outbreak of the Second World War, the central government tightened its grip on the financial sector. Many of the regulations introduced at that time still remained towards the end of the 1980s. During this period of regulation, the financial sector looked very different. It is probable that the regulations then curbed the development of economic activity. The regulations covered, for instance, the central government guaranteeing financing of housing construction and the central government borrowing requirement. Interest rates were kept lower than the equilibrium level with the hope that this would stimulate investment and growth. This of course resulted in a large demand for loans, which was managed by means of rationing. A necessary condition for this regulatory system was that the country was screened off with the aid of currency regulation that prevented savers from taking advantage of higher interest abroad. One might think it self-evident that an individual should be able to decide where in the world he or she invests his or her savings, but for a long time we lacked this freedom. In other words, one of the financial markets’ fundamental tasks was eliminated - allocating capital to the most profitable investments. During this long period of regulation we as a country forgot our own experiences from the 19th century on the value of free movement of capital and the importance of the price mechanism in efficient allocation of resources.
16.09.2019  The EMU at 20: from divergence to resilience Welcome address. Third Annual Research Conference of the Banco de España Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Ladies and gentlemen, Let me start by welcoming you to the Banco de España for the Third Annual Research Conference. We began organising this conference three years ago, with the aim of bringing together leading scholars and policymakers to discuss frontier research on relevant topics. This year, the chosen topic is “The EMU at 20: current status and the way forward”, which I think ranks highly in the current policy debate. It would be hard to imagine a more eminent group of researchers to discuss this topic. I would like to thank all of you for your attendance here today. 2019 marks the 20th anniversary of the creation of the euro. We reach this milestone in the context of a global macroeconomic deterioration, while still facing the legacy of the crisis, in terms of high unemployment rates and persistent levels of indebtedness. Part of this worsening of economic conditions is linked to trade tensions, against a background in which the multilateral financial and trade system in place since the end of the Second World War is being put into question. At the same time we are confronted with global trends, such as digitalisation and climate change, which pose significant challenges, of a different nature, for the European economy. But I am optimistic about our common future.

It is assumed that overall activity will decline somewhat when Snøhvit and Ormen Lange are completed, but that the high oil price will contribute to maintaining investment at a relatively high level throughout the projection period. The fiscal rule implies a gradual phasing-in of petroleum revenues into the economy, approximately in pace with the expected real return on the Government Pension Fund – Global, formerly known as the Petroleum Fund. The Government Pension Fund – Global is likely to expand sharply in the years ahead. On the basis of our assumptions for developments in oil prices ahead (oil futures prices), a mechanical application of the 4 per cent rule implies that the use of petroleum revenues will increase by more than NOK 31 billion from 2006 to 2009. This is somewhat higher than expected in the Government’s supplement to the budget for 2006. The difference can partly be explained by the fact that at end-2005 the Fund’s capital was higher than that estimated by the Government, and partly that the Government assumed that oil prices ahead would be lower than current oil futures. For 2007, we assume an approximately unchanged structural non-oil deficit. With continued solid growth in the Norwegian economy, it would be in line with the fiscal rule if the use of petroleum revenues is lower than the expected real return on the Government Pension Fund – Global over a few years.