samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Commodity and Crude Oil Prices S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Price Indices* 300  He adline M etal Ag ricu lture  En ergy P recio us M eta l  Crude Oil (Brent) Prices (US dollar/bbl) 150  250  110  200  150  70 100  50  30 0  *January 2007 average is taken as 100. Source: Goldman Sachs. Source: Bloomberg. 7. Global inflation that had plummeted due to downward pressures arising from demand and cost conditions since the second half of 2008, maintained its course in 2009 as well, and the annual rate of change in consumer prices in advanced economies turned negative in May and June. However, it started to trend up in  2  BIS Review 68/2010  August 2009, particularly due to the low base in 2008 and the surge in commodity prices. The upward trend in global inflation, being more pronounced in emerging economies, also continued into early 2010. Meanwhile, core inflation continued to decline in advanced economies, while it trended upward in emerging economies. CPI and Core CPI in Advanced and Emerging Economies CPI in Advanced and Emerging Economies (Annual Percentage Change)  Core CPI in Advanced and Emerging Economies (Annual Percentage Change)  5  8  4  7 6  3  5  2  5  4 3  4 1 3 0  2  2  Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. 8.

Banks have a total market share of over 50 per cent, while mortgage companies and finance companies have a combined share of 14 per cent. Growth in financial markets makes it easier to channel savings surpluses to customers with sound investment plans. It also makes it easier to diversify risk. Both enhance the economy’s growth potential. At the same time, a larger financial sector may increase the consequences of financial instability for the real economy. 1/6  As a result of globalisation, debt and financial assets are now more widely distributed across countries. Home bias has declined. This has reduced the risk in the financial system and improved the relationship between risk and return. The Government Petroleum Fund has contributed to a sharp decline in home bias in Norway. In recent years, Norwegian life insurance companies have also invested more of their capital abroad. Tendency towards larger entities and increased concentration National consolidation In the past few years, domestic mergers and acquisitions have been a central feature of the European banking industry. Concentration, which can for example be measured by the size of the five largest credit institutions, varies considerably across countries. However, concentration generally appears to be higher in small countries than in large ones. It is not particularly high in Norway, and is lower than in Denmark, Finland and Sweden. Developments in the number of credit institutions are another measure of market consolidation. The total number of credit institutions in the euro area has been sharply reduced over the past eight years.
Tukiya Kankasa-Mabula: Stimulating academic development in Zambia Speech by Dr Tukiya Kankasa-Mabula, Deputy Governor (Administration) of the Bank of Zambia, to the Zambia Centre for Accountancy Studies Students, Lusaka, 17 October 2012. *  *  •  Management Staff  •  Lecturers  •  Students,  •  Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen  *  Good afternoon to you all, I feel greatly privileged to be here with you this afternoon to share with you the background to my career progression and to also give you an inspirational message that may stimulate you to greater heights. I take this opportunity to thank the management of the Zambia Centre for Accountancy Studies for extending an invitation to me. I always get a satisfying feeling to speak to students, particularly given that I am coming from a background of lecturing. As has been said earlier, I am currently the Deputy Governor Administration at the Central Bank of Zambia. For those of you that may not be too familiar with what the role of the central bank is; the primary role of the Bank of Zambia is, and I quote: “to formulate and implement monetary and supervisory policies that will ensure the maintenance of price and financial system stability so as to promote balanced macroeconomic development”. The functions of the Bank are stipulated in the Bank of Zambia Act and these are as follows: 1.

Going back to what I said earlier about maintaining high morals, keep away from abusing alcohol, drugs and sex as these are the ingredients that are likely to lead you into high risk behavior  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  such as unprotected sex and cause you to contract the HIV/AIDS. Abstinence is the only 100% effective way to avoid getting infected. WHAT EMPLOYERS WANT Employers want to see in you potential to be a high flyer and willingness to learn new things. Employers want a demonstration of productivity. Employers want to receive a good reference, a transcript that reflects goods results and a qualification from an institution of repute, a qualification that is relevant to their needs. You therefore need to be forward looking even as you select your subject. PLAN YOUR LIVES. Do not have the attitude of FIKAISOLVA. Have a recipe for a successful life. It is never too early. I had decided when I began to study law that I wanted to specialize in commercial law. That path has brought me to where I am today. I must make mention that you are fortunate in that the environment of the college is ideal for learning. I had the opportunity to be taken around the college and I observed that you have modern facilities and equipment that support your learning. Your classrooms have the necessary furniture, the computer laboratory has access to internet and the physical building conditions are solid.
Then I made the remark that a separated responsibility for monetary and macroprudential policy, without any coordination, could result in a game between authorities, which could lead to an outcome not desired by any of the authorities. In the United Kingdom, sole responsibility has been given to the central bank. A Financial Policy Committee is to be set up alongside the existing Monetary Policy Committee. Such a solution of course means that the coordination between these two almost parallel committees, although each with a different focus, becomes an important issue. In the EU, the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) has been set up at the ECB in Frankfurt. Central banks and supervisory authorities are represented on the ESRB, but the central banks have the majority of the votes when decisions are made. In Sweden, Finansinspektionen and we at the Riksbank set up the Council for Cooperation on Macroprudential Policy in January this year. This council will discuss the assessment of risks in the financial system as a whole and discuss appropriate risk-prevention measures. The Council will also discuss analyses and the development of tools and methods in the area of macroprudential policy. The Council is a temporary solution while awaiting a more permanent distribution of the responsibility for macroprudential policy. At present, the Financial Crisis Commission is working with this issue. The recently appointed inquiry on capital adequacy regulations will focus specifically on responsibility for the future counter-cyclical capital buffer.

Stefan Ingves: Financial crises and financial regulation – thoughts after five turbulent years Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, to the Swedish Economics Association, Stockholm, 13 June 2012. *  *  *  Palmstruch and the Bank of the Estates of the Realm In 1656, Johan Palmstruch founded Sweden’s first bank, Stockholms Banco. In 1661, to facilitate the handling of money, Palmstruch launched the first banknotes. They were initially successful. But it all ended in a bank failure after Palmstruch became tempted to issue too many banknotes in relation to the underlying value that was deposited in the bank. In response to this failure, the Riksdag resolved to form the Bank of the Estates of the Realm in 1668. This bank was later renamed the Riksbank and is today the world’s oldest central bank. Palmstruch’s story illustrates the importance of price stability – and also the risks of financial instability. Today, I would like to discuss financial crises and financial regulation from the perspective of the national economy. I want to explain the value of orderly and well-reasoned financial regulations for the prevention of financial crises. Banks are not normal companies. For one thing, banks in crisis can result in very large costs for the entire economy. The public sector thus has an obligation towards the citizens to attempt to prevent and manage financial crises to the best of its ability.
On a domestic-level, financial stability will have to play a more prominent role in monetary policy decisions. This is especially true in the current environment where inflationary pressure is subdued. For EMs that still have a lot of ground to cover in regulating non-bank financial activities,  3  financial stability cannot be addressed by macroprudential measures alone. EMs also need to equip themselves with policy tools to deal with rapidly changing capital flows; these tools encompass macroprudential measures, microprudential measures, capital flow management measures, and at times foreign exchange intervention. On an international level, we need to recognize the changing landscape and the impact of the financial spillovers on small open economies, advanced economies and EMs alike. First, the burden of adjustment needs to be proportionately shared by both the source and recipient countries of capital flows. At present, EMs as recipients of flows are often restricted and reproached in their response to capital flows, while source countries have full flexibility in their conduct of monetary policy. In this regard, we very much welcome IMFs’ work on the Integrated Policy Framework which will allow small open countries to respond to spillovers more effectively taking into account each country’s specific context and circumstances. We would very much hope that source countries of capital flows take into account spillover and spillback effects in their policy deliberation.

I think it is more crucial than ever for small nations—emerging nations and advanced economies alike—to work closer together and make sure that our voices from the periphery are heard and that we make progress on macroeconomic policy frameworks fit for the new global environment. Thank you very much for your kind attention. 6
Caleb M Fundanga: Monetary policy issues and the process of foreign payments Presentation by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the Zambian Heads of Missions Briefing Seminar, Lusaka, 19 July 2005. *  *  *  The Hon. Minister of Foreign Affairs, Lt. Gen. Ronnie Shikapwasha, MP Hon. Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Permanent Secretaries Your Excellencies, High Commissioners and Ambassadors Senior Government Officials Distinguished Invited Guests Ladies and Gentlemen It is an honour for me to be here this morning to talk to you on the topic of “Monetary Policy Issues and the Process of Foreign Payments”. This topic provides me with an opportunity to explain the role of the Bank of Zambia in the economy and the process of foreign payments which has been a topical issue. As you may be aware, the Bank of Zambia’s mission is to formulate and implement monetary and supervisory policies that will ensure price and financial system stability. However, in line with the topic above, my presentation this morning will focus on the first aspect of the mission of the Bank, namely, price stability. There are generally three prices of major concern to the Bank of Zambia. These are general prices of goods and services, interest rates and the exchange rate of the kwacha against major foreign currencies. I will now deal with each of these in turn. The central bank deals with general prices of goods and services in the context of inflation.

While still low by historic standards, it is 100 basis points above its previous level. And we must add to this rise in the Treasury bond rate the increase in the foreign credit premiums facing the emerging economies. Emerging markets’ currencies have depreciated substantially against the US dollar, and their market capitalization is lagging behind the advanced economies’ stock markets. The external financial conditions facing our economies are entering a normalization stage, but they are still favorable from a historic perspective. In short, after six years since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, international conditions are returning to normal. This scenario implies that most Latin American countries, including Chile, will be getting a weaker impulse from abroad at least in the short run, due to  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  the drop in the terms of trade and the more stringent external credit standards. Still, over the medium term, a recovery of developed economies’ growth is certainly good news. And much more so, if we consider that a persistent “easy money” era may create economic and financial imbalances which, the longer they last the higher the price that has to be paid in terms of economic and balance sheet adjustments down the road. The question is, where do the emerging economies stand to deal with this transition? There is no simple answer to this. Some have used the boom years to consolidate their fiscal accounts, balance sheets and macroeconomic policies.
Expected inflation Per cent 4  4 5 years ahead 2 years ahead 1 year ahead  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 96  00  04  08  12  Note. Average for all survey respondents. Source: TNS SIFO Prospera  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Resource utilisation remains lower than normal Resource utilisation has been lower than normal for in principle the entire period since the end of 2008, when demand for Swedish exports fell heavily in connection with the global financial crisis. At the same time, developments on the labour market have been better than expected in some aspects. Although unemployment has remained around 8 per cent since the middle of 2012, employment has increased and the employment rate has risen around half a percentage point since then. One question that sometimes arises is whether it is actually possible to bring down the current unemployment rate of 8 per cent with the aid of monetary policy. Matching on the labour market appears to have deteriorated and a larger percentage of the unemployed consist of groups that are on the periphery of the labour market. This could mean that structural unemployment is higher than before, and structural unemployment cannot be affected by monetary policy. However, my impression is that one can at least partly determine how much of unemployment is structural by looking at wage increases.

The Risk-Based Capital Framework and Risk-Based Supervisory approach give room for institutions to innovate and take more risks as long as adequate controls and risk management practices are in place. BIS Review 103/2006  1  Liberalisation of the general insurance industry MAS will also continue to encourage greater participation from a wide range of global insurance players in our market. In 2000, we lifted the moratorium on admission of new direct general insurers and removed the 49% limit on foreign shareholding in locally-owned direct insurers. Since then, the industry landscape has evolved considerably. Today, we have a diverse network of 58 direct insurers, many of whom are specialist insurers, 27 professional reinsurers and 60 captives. Most of the top international insurance and reinsurance brokers are also here. We continue to see interest from more players seeking to establish a presence here. We will consider all applicants that are well-capitalised, have an acceptable rating, and are managed by experienced professionals with a good track record even if the company is newly established. Singapore as an insurance hub Singapore has achieved a critical mass of insurance players and activities, becoming an insurance hub. This critical mass means a wide range of insurance products and services are available. Singapore is a logical choice for those seeking to purchase insurance because they know that there are capacity and expertise here. Indeed, Singapore serves as an important regional reinsurance centre as well as the largest captive domicile in Asia. Asia holds many opportunities for insurance.
What is clear to me is that there is – at the very least – the potential for misuse of this specific feature, as various ongoing misconduct cases bear testament to. The Code already provides guidance that is designed to minimise the risks of that misconduct occurring. The underlying debate, which our consultative process seeks to resolve, is whether there are ways of reducing those risks even further. If we can identify specific, legitimate, uses of this type of trading activity, as well as the already well-known illegitimate uses, we can then cater for both within the Code. But if the evidence suggests that trading in the last look window is simply inconsistent with good conduct, this section of the Code will need to be updated accordingly. It’s impossible for me at this stage to presuppose the outcome. What I want to emphasise is the GFXC’s commitment to acting on the evidence we receive. We are fully aware that the Committee’s eventual conclusion has the potential impact on some firms’ current business models, and that is why we are committed to establishing the broadest possible evidence base on which to take our decision. There are nine days remaining before the feedback window closes, and I encourage all of you – both price makers and takers – to provide us with your views. While the last look debate is the current centre of attention it is important to recognise that over time the Committee will need to update other areas of the Code.

In some cases these might amount to tweaks to avoid unintended consequences; in other cases they will be in response to further evolution in the market itself. And although crystal ball gazing is always a perilous exercise, if you take the agenda for this conference as a guide, then one area likely to remain in focus in coming years is transparency. 5  http://www.globalfxc.org/consultative_process.htm 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  On the one hand the demand for market data will only continue to rise – for example, as end users demand transaction cost analysis tools and analytics to measure the quality of their execution and to predict the optimal time to execute trades. But on the other hand, growing market complexity and greater internalisation of flows tend naturally to reduce the ease with which such data can be accessed. So it’s not hard to imagine that post-trade transparency as one of the areas where further guidance may eventually be needed. Securing success  So far I have focussed on activities: encouraging firms to commit to the Code, investing to ensure it continues to provide up-to-date guidance. Ultimately though, the success of the Code will be judged on outcomes. The aim is to improve market practice and rebuild trust in the FX market – that is what the BIS Governors will be looking at when they come to review progress in three years’ time. Those outcomes are difficult to measure.
In fact, Newton has left us with more than one insight. Newton surmised that once inertia is overcome, an object achieves momentum and acceleration, but not without force being applied first. In a similar way, the same areas of corporate inertia today can be harnessed to drive the momentum of tomorrow. But only through a combined force of action and leadership can we truly achieve this. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

All these factors might be the reason for a slower exhaustion of temporary factors and a slower reduction in inflation than assumed in the baseline scenario. Speaking of demand, accommodative monetary conditions existing in the global economy since the outbreak of the pandemic might remain for a longer period, despite the growing trend towards monetary policy normalisation in advanced economies. In the long run, monetary policy tightening in advanced economies will certainly have disinflationary impact. However, in the short run, global inflation may stay high longer, given the time lags of monetary policy. A faster monetary policy normalisation in advanced economies might provoke additional shortterm proinflationary effects for emerging market economies. Thus, a reversal of capital flows might increase exchange rate fluctuations and overall volatility in the financial markets of emerging market economies. For Russia, rising geopolitical tension is another risk of a temporary intensification of volatility. As regards disinflationary risks, we believe that they have a weaker effect and are primarily associated with supply-side factors. As I have already said, our forecast assumes that some disinflationary factors will materialise next year. These include a partial restoration of production and logistics chains, an expansion of food supply in global markets, and generally a certain adjustment of prices in global commodity markets down from the currently high levels. If this adjustment is more significant, the disinflationary effect will be stronger than predicted in the baseline scenario. I will now speak about our future decisions.
Evidently, the spread of fiscal difficulties in one specific country to other Member States can run through many channels, which may include the exposure of financial institutions to sovereign debt, the correlation between risk premia on markets and the effects associated with changes in trade flows. The importance of these mechanisms is unquestionable. But the speed at which tensions have spread in this case and their initial and sharp impact on those Member States whose public finances have most deteriorated suggest that the weaknesses  4  BIS Review 86/2010  perceived in the institutional arrangements for governance of the euro area may have played a central role. As has been brought home to us in these months, the rapid spread of tensions has meant difficult and far-reaching decisions have had to be adopted on two fronts: the common European front and the domestic front of each Member State. On the European front, the Heads of State and of Government and the Ecofin outlined a powerful programme of financial support for the Greek authorities. Implementation of the programme was conditional upon Greek economic policies being redressed with regard to their fiscal consolidation strategy, which had to be strengthened and accelerated, and to the need to undertake ambitious structural reforms to move back onto a path of sustained growth. Subsequently, the agreement to create a European stabilisation mechanism strengthened this firm commitment of the Member States to maintaining the stability of the euro area.

To understand the implications, the starting point must be a sufficiently broad-sighted diagnosis of the current situation of the Spanish economy. An idea central to the Annual Report I present to you today is that exiting the recession in Spain involves the need to absorb and overcome the imbalances that built up during the long expansionary phase. That is a prerequisite if the new growth path is to be underpinned by a model capable of generating employment and by a more efficient use of productive resources than in the past. This process can only be successful if economic policies adopt an active and ambitious role removing the obstacles that have emerged and restoring confidence in the Spanish economy’s capacity to negotiate this critical juncture. This message, which I have attempted to convey in recent years, is now a matter of the utmost urgency. Indeed, the government’s latest fiscal, labour market and pensions measures are in keeping with this urgency. Let me begin by summarising those aspects of the recession in Spain that are key to understanding the scale of the challenges we face. In 2009, there was an abrupt decline in Spanish economic activity, the biggest in recent decades. Furthering the fall in activity that had begun in the second half of 2008, this placed the level of GDP in the opening months of 2010 at 4.6% below its peak in the second quarter of 2008.