samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But when there’s a high degree of uncertainty about forecasts, it could be best to tend toward the more cautious end of the spectrum - because a somewhat delayed action could be preferable to running the risk of tightening when it’s not warranted. Therefore, since most forecasts of output and inflation have been off the mark for several years, it has made sense to place less weight on the forecasts than we normally have in the past. It’s true that we began tightening policy before we saw any upward inflationary trend, and in that sense we were pre-emptive, in part because we knew interest rates would have to go up to some extent regardless of whether a demand shock or a supply shock was dominating. But the tightening phase started only a little more than a year ago, even though many forecasts have predicted rising inflation for several years. Moreover, we’ve been fairly cautious in raising rates by a total of only 175 basis points. I’d like to conclude by touching briefly on the issue of central bank credibility because I believe it’s been an enabling factor in our taking a cautious approach. Over the last twenty years, the Fed has built a reasonably good reputation for containing inflation. This credibility has allowed us some flexibility to delay raising interest rates - despite many forecasts that inflation would soon rise. Without this leeway, we might have faced a jump in inflation expectations with adverse reactions in financial markets.

19 To assist more borrowers, CCS is working on expanding its services. It will offer a centralised repayment solution to those who have accumulated substantial unsecured debts above their annual incomes. Under this new repayment solution, borrowers will not have to approach multiple creditor banks to negotiate how to reduce their debts. Instead, CCS will coordinate across all of a borrower’s creditor banks, and work out a centralised repayment plan. This centralised repayment plan will take holistic account of the borrower’s income, expenditure needs, and loan obligations. All the leading retail banks have agreed to come on-board CCS’ centralised repayment solution by the first quarter of next year. Thrust three: empower individuals to take charge through financial education 20 The third thrust is to reach out to more Singaporeans to empower them with the knowledge and skills to better manage their finances, and especially to avoid excessive borrowing. (a)  2  An integrated consumer education campaign, that explains the problems that result when debts get too high, will be launched by MoneySENSE next year. The  The number of reported unlicensed moneylending and related harassment cases has declined 23% from 10,840 cases in 2012 to 8,306 in 2013. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  campaign will use multiple media channels to reach out to different segments of Singaporeans. (b)  We will reach out to Singaporeans where they work and live.
The purpose of the Operational Risk Management is to manage properly the uncertainties, and to inform the decision-makers on the risks that may hamper the accomplishment of the Bank’s objectives, or to have adverse financial and/or reputational effects. The maturity level of operational risk management activity assessed by the international experts, increased at ‘managed’, thus crossing the ‘basic’ level. This maturity level shows that the operational risk management policy is guided by a risk matrix and a definite governing structure. The application on the automated management of audits and operational risk management process was implemented over 2017. During 2018, the major part of internal audit activity is expected to be realised and documented in the new system. The risk assessment automation for audit purposes provides the planning of audits fully based on risks, in line with the international practice. ***  Honourable Chairman, Honourable Members of the Committee, At the end of my presentation, I want to assure you that the Bank of Albania will continue to be committed to following its legal objectives, and to implementing the institutional tasks and commitments. I am confident that the Albanian economy and financial system will continue to see in the Bank of Albania a reliable, professional and transparent partner. Thank you for your attention! 9/9  BIS central bankers' speeches

Thus, how much one pushes on the short-term interest rate lever depends, in part, on how financial market conditions respond to such adjustments. Imagine driving a car where the connection between the gas pedal and the engine speed was variable and uncertain. The driver would have to constantly monitor and adjust the pressure on the gas pedal to achieve the desired speed. Similarly, we will have to monitor and adjust short-term interest rates to achieve financial market conditions consistent with achieving our labor market and inflation objectives. All else equal, less responsiveness implies larger interest rate adjustments and vice versa. Quickly, let me give two examples that illustrate how variable this linkage can be. First, during the 2004–07 period, the FOMC tightened monetary policy nearly continuously, raising the federal funds rate from 1 percent to 5.25 percent in 17 steps. However, during this period, 10-year Treasury note yields did not rise much, credit spreads generally narrowed and U.S. equity price indices moved higher. Moreover, the availability of mortgage credit eased, rather than tightened. As a result, financial market conditions did not tighten. As a result, financial conditions remained quite loose, despite the large increase in the federal funds rate. With the benefit of hindsight, it seems that either monetary policy should have been tightened more aggressively or macroprudential measures should have been implemented in order to tighten credit conditions in the overheated housing sector.
Some concerns that I have about the outlook, however, are the possibility of continued sluggishness in private demand, and the possibility that supply-side constraints – both in the labor market and the production sector – could hold back the future potential of investment and exports. Through this turbulent time, the Bank of Thailand has been steering its monetary and financial policies with prudence. The flexible inflation-targeting framework succeeds in anchoring inflation expectation, thus fostering continued growth and stability. The managedfloat regime accommodates baht movements that are in alignment with fundamentals, with policy instruments ready to curb excessive speculation and overshooting if needed. The strong international reserves position, at the same time, helps cushion against sharp flow reversals. Efforts have also been expended on financial liberalization and regulatory reforms under the Financial Sector Master Plan. And for the banking sector, banks’ capital bases have been strengthened well above international standard, while granting new subsidiary licenses for foreign banks will ensure that the future banking system stays competitive and vibrant. C.  Lifting barriers to sustainable growth  Distinguished audience, Sound macroeconomic and financial practices have been instrumental in safeguarding economic stability and helping the country weather through numerous shocks that have come its way. Sufficient policy spaces in monetary and fiscal policies provided buffers amid intense headwinds and supports in the times of need – notably in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the flood devastation in late 2011.

Eva Srejber: New economy - or blend of new and old? Speech by Eva Srejber, Second Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a meeting arranged by WM-Data ub Tylösand on 23 October 2000. *  *  *  Major technological changes have occurred before. Then as now, many people talked about a new age that would involve better communications, new economic relations and a very promising future. It is therefore important to keep a level head amidst the technological enthusiasm over future opportunities. The fact that I am today emphasising the risks more than the advantages, is not because I consider the risks to be more important than the advantages, but because the risks appear to have been largely forgotten in the general debate on the economy. Let us make a sober analysis of what is happening, and maybe we can avoid repeating the mistakes made during previous technological leaps. Moreover, I will touch on the uncertainty and lack of information regarding the structural changes currently taking place in the economy. In conclusion, I will also indicate to what extent these phenomena have already affected and can be expected to affect monetary policy. It has happened before A nation’s economy is constantly subject to changes that lead to reappraisals or to the development of old economic relations and theories. This is nothing new.
There is a much broader agenda to ensure that the availability of payments data can meet the demands of the modern financial system. Payment systems were originally developed in different jurisdictions to meet the needs of the users at the time, with little focus on interoperability or future-proofing. In the UK, as in many countries, the data standards developed piecemeal as the payment and underlying technology systems developed. The historical challenge of transmitting a file of a certain size with the computing power available a quarter of a century ago has left many of us, including the UK, with a legacy of only being able to gather and hold a very limited amount of information in a payment message. In the most widely used current payment message, Swift MT, the remittance field is just 4 unstructured lines of 35 characters. Without a structure to the payment message or even the possibility of including the full information, the additional information often included in a message, cannot be easily signposted or transmitted. To give one very important illustration, the critical activity of AML checks become trickier to achieve and more false positives are flagged, increasing global payment costs and delays for end-users like corporates and small businesses that they have to pass on. It is often difficult if not impossible to quickly ascertain the ‘purpose’ of a payment.

In addition to supporting price stability, the Bank of Albania has also paid attention to the promotion of financial stability, through the supervision and careful regulation of the banking 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  sector, as well as through the coordination of work with other supervisory authorities of the financial sector. 2. Banking supervision and financial stability The Albanian banking sector continues to remain financially sound and has shown increasing dynamism. This sector has been profitable during 2019, while its liquidity and capitalization indicators are above our regulatory requirements. Also, resistance testing exercises show that the banking sector exposure to systemic risks is controlled and that the banking sector’s ability to withstand risks is strong. Below I will briefly list some of the main directions of our work to strengthen banking supervision and to support financial stability. First, the Bank of Albania successfully administered the banking sector consolidation process. This process reshaped the domestic banking market, bringing in new and motivated actors, as well as increasing domestic capital. Second, the Bank of Albania fulfilled all its obligations under the national plan for the reduction of non-performing loans. Thanks to measures taken over the years, the nonperforming loan ratio fell from a maximum of almost 25% in 2014 to 8.4% at the end of 2019. Third, the Bank of Albania worked to meet the recommendations of the CoE Committee of Experts on the Evaluation of Measures against Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing (MONEYVAL).
Lars Heikensten: Some topical monetary policy issues Speech by Mr Lars Heikensten, First Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, at a seminar of the SNS - Center for Business and Policy Studies, Stockholm, 23 October 2001. *  *  *  Thank you for inviting me to talk here about monetary policy and the economic situation. The economic seminars arranged by the Centre for Business and Policy Studies are an established tradition that is well worth maintaining. This is my sixth appearance here as Deputy Governor of the Riksbank and for me, these have been good occasions both for looking back and reflecting on all that has happened in the field of monetary policy during the past year and for considering what the future may have in store. My talk today is arranged along similar lines. From the viewpoint of economic policy and in keeping with the latter part of the 1990s, last year’s economic developments gave relatively little cause for concern. GDP growth had provided a series of pleasant surprises at the same time as inflation had been lower than expected. This had been accompanied by a rapid improvement in the public finances. Signs of poorer tendencies were, however, beginning to appear. Stock markets were already starting to fall in the early part of 2000 and in the late autumn a number of indicators pointed to an economic slowdown, first in the United States and then, early this year, in other parts of the world.

Its main elements now include: The Financial Stability Advisory Council (FSAC): a consultative body comprising the minister of finance, the governor of the Central Bank, and the chairman of the Financial Supervision Commission; The Central Bank as the designated resolution authority for banks; the resolution function of the BNB is outlined in the Law on Recovery and Resolution of Credit Institutions and Investment Firms, adopted in mid-2015, which transposed the BRRD in the Bulgarian legislation; A mechanism to fund resolution measures by the newly established Bank Resolution Fund (BRF) which is funded by contributions from the banks; the target level of the resources collected in the BRF is 2% of the amount of covered deposits of all banks licensed in Bulgaria and must be achieved by end-2024; A comprehensive resolution toolkit directly transposed from the BRRD comprising: (1) the resolution tools (sale of business; bridge institution, asset separation, and bail-in), and (2) the government stabilization tools (public equity support and temporary public ownership). Progress has been already made in operationalizing the crisis management framework in Bulgaria.
Or, to take changes in my own job as members of the Executive Board of the Riksbank, when a combination of algorithms, machine learning and Big Data become better than human analysts at making forecasts, or even designing well-balanced monetary policy. Such changeovers can create gaps between different sections of the population. Those with the right skills to make use of the technological developments will find it easy to get jobs and can see their salaries rise because of higher productivity. In economist speak this is called being a complement to technology. Routine and less complicated work tasks can be replaced by automatic processes, which leads to lower demand for these jobs and thus lower wages. Such jobs are substitutes for technology. Then there are also jobs which are not tangibly affected by technological developments. These are jobs with a high service content and many human elements. Psychologists, preschool teachers, health and medical care specialists and hairdressers are the examples usually put forward as difficult to replace with automatic processes and AI. I am fairly convinced that we in Sweden can use today's technology as complement to the strengths we already have. Smart automated solutions give us more time and resources to invest in other important issues. They also give us new tools to manage new challenges. What is obvious is that we cannot stand still in terms of competence. We must embrace life-long learning as a motto.

It also emphasized the need to collectively think how, as a supervisor and a central bank, we should deal with risks and avoid the build-up of new vulnerabilities (e.g. helping to enhance the financing shift towards low-carbon sectors). Those reflections gave birth to the Network for Greening the Financial System in December 2017. As a continuation of this work and also in the spirit of bringing our contribution to the reflections of the NGFS, the ACPR surveyed both main French banking and insurance  companies in 2018 to take stock of progress they have achieved in dealing with climate change-related financial risks. The main takeaways from both surveys have been published last April 10th 2018 in two reports1. The report dedicated to the banking sector2 includes three main observations:  There is a shift in the governance of climate change-related risks from a “Coporate and Social Responsability-only” perspective towards a two-pronged approach which integrates traditional risk departments. This trend is nevertheless mainly observable in the biggest and most internationally active institutions and the operational implementation could be improved significantly (lack of metrics, specification of strategic orientations at the business-line level…).
Pay pressures in the labour market are muted, reflecting in part the need of employers to adopt a tough stance in wage bargaining when faced by such large increases in other input costs. Companies facing higher costs for energy, raw materials and other inputs, have been willing to offer only moderate wage increases in  BIS Review 52/2006  3  order to minimise the squeeze on their profit margins. The rapid rise in input prices and the muted degree of pay pressures are not independent of each other. Inflation expectations – whether measured by household surveys or implicit in government bond yields – have moved up during the course of this year. Although not of serious concern as yet, the MPC will monitor inflation expectations carefully. Inflation itself remains volatile as increases in oil and natural gas prices pass through to household bills. Those increases will dampen the growth of real household disposable incomes and moderate consumer spending. So the economic outlook is far from certain. In these circumstances the Monetary Policy Committee must examine carefully all information, learn and, if necessary, revise its judgements, and question all received wisdom. In other words, it must be enlightened. The Scottish Enlightenment, it is generally agreed, began and ended in the 18th century. Our present framework for monetary policy is of more recent vintage.

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After all, the central rate can be re-aligned if necessary, although such a move would require the agreement of the ECB and the other national central banks participating in the euro area. In practice, however, the initial central rate chosen is important because it conveys a signal to the market about what the ECB and the national authorities consider to be the equilibrium exchange rate. The determination of the central rate is also crucial because if the selected rate turns out to be incompatible with economic fundamentals, market intervention by the ECB and the Central Bank of Malta could become too frequent in relation to the resources available. Determining the appropriate central rate, however, is not an easy task. Nevertheless, though the available evidence suggests that in the current economic climate the Maltese lira exchange rate is sustainable at prevailing levels, work is being undertaken in order to estimate an equilibrium rate. The second choice concerns the fluctuation band. It is a matter of choosing between the lower degree of uncertainty and volatility associated with a narrow fluctuation band and the flexibility inherent in a wider fluctuation band. On the one hand, the flexibility necessitated by the absence of capital controls would strengthen the case for a wider band. On the other hand, Malta’s dependence on foreign trade and investment, the country’s track record with a fixed peg as well as the Central Bank’s commitment to price stability would seem to justify the adoption of a narrow band.

From there, I strongly urge banks to work with your customers to take advantage of the good liquidity in both SOR and SORA markets in the next 6-12 months to proactively transition legacy contracts. 26 If we manage to front load this work early and transition the substantive bulk of legacy books by early 2022, this will leave ample time for us to deal with any residual tough legacy transactions. That would be a good place to be in, when we meet again this time next year. 27  Thank you very much, I wish you all fruitful discussions for the rest of this webinar. ***  [1] The Association of Banks in Singapore (ABS) is a non-profit organisation that represents the interests  of the commercial and investment banking community. The Singapore Foreign Exchange Market Committee (SFEMC) aims to foster the growth and development of Singapore as a leading global financial centre in Asia, with a specific focus on foreign exchange, money markets, fixed income and derivative markets. https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2021/pushing-ahead-with-sor-sora-transition-in-2021  6/7  12/02/2021  "Pushing Ahead with SOR-SORA Transition in 2021" - Keynote Speech by Mr Leong Sing Chiong, Deputy Managing Director (Markets …  [2] The Steering Committee for SOR & SIBOR Transition to SORA or SC-STS is an industry-led Steering  Committee tasked with overseeing the transition from SOR to SORA. The SC-STS is chaired by Mr Samuel Tsien, Group CEO of OCBC Bank and ABS Chairman. [3] See relevant announcements here .