samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But this reliance on the demand from the developed markets is likely to decrease over time, as rapid economic growth within the region promises to provide a sustainable impetus, helped by the dismantling of trade barriers and the establishment of free trade agreements within the region. This high and increasing degree of trade integration and regional interdependence has clearly not been matched by a corresponding degree of financial and monetary integration. It is, of course, arguable whether there is a need for such correlation or causal relationship, and if so, whether the market can be relied upon to produce the optimum arrangements in due course without official sector involvement. My view is that monetary integration is desirable and, given the role of the state in the monetary system, cannot be achieved by market forces. I hope that, looking at the matter from a European perspective, you agree with me. The fact of the matter is that diversity or fragmentation leads to individual vulnerability, and interdependence is synonymous with contagion, particularly financial contagion. This is notwithstanding the low degree of financial integration and varying degrees of financial openness. The ingenuity of the financial community can be relied upon to establish financial linkages, where there is none officially allowed, through which what appears to be unmanageable financial risks can be managed and, consequently, financial contagion can be readily transmitted. The emerging markets of Asia provide fertile ground for financial innovation.

BIS Review 66/2004  5  •  The first is the APEC Initiative on the Development of Securitisation and Credit Guarantee Markets, which is spearheaded by three APEC member economies, namely, Hong Kong, Thailand and Korea, and sponsored by the World Bank;  •  The second is the Asian Bond Market Initiative (ABMI) of the ASEAN+3 forum; and  •  The third is the Asian Bond Fund initiative of EMEAP, comprising eleven central banks in the region, which has successfully launched ABF1, denominated in US dollars and has been working hard on ABF2 to be denominated in domestic currencies. There is inevitably competition among these forums, some overlap on the issues being addressed and use of different strategies. In Asia there is no political or institutional framework comparable to the one in Europe for taking a more focussed approach and for co-ordinating efforts. But all the initiatives have the common aim of addressing the structural impediments to the development of bond markets, including for example harmonising standards and practices, and creating the necessary regional financial infrastructure to facilitate this much needed development. There is momentum built up and I am hopeful that we should see significant progress made in the years to come. But I think the long-term solution to the problems of Asian finance lies in co-operation in respect of currency arrangements.
The recent economic deceleration from 6.9% in 2017 to 4.2% y-o-y in first half 2018 is a double edged sword. On the one hand, it represents a slowdown compared to last year. On the other hand, it brings growth towards its potential, therefore reducing the output gap and making growth more sustainable. But, as former US President Harry Truman said, “All my economists say on the one hand…on the other hand…Give me a one-handed economist!”. The current account deficit, although much lower than prior to the crisis and below its long time trend of 4% of GDP, remains a concern because our peers are recording current account surpluses in these years (Figure 15). However, it remains fully financed from autonomous flows (FDI and European funds) (Figure 16). Let me make two remarks here. The FDI flows, although lower than prior to the crisis, are much more stable, as they only comprise of equity and reinvested profits (especially after mid-2014), while short-term intra-company loans have practically vanished. As for the European funds, in the last 10 years, more than 40 billion euros entered the country, representing a factor of the increase in the monetary aggregates. This brings me to the issue of inflation. Price stability is our main task and I think we did a good job, given the circumstances. Last year the inflation target was met.

Structural reforms are incomplete and a possible roadmap for euro-accession or just for further convergence cannot be done without a detailed program of these reforms which should cover governance issues (both in the public and private sectors), investment prioritization, better tax collection, broader reporting, centralized procurement, addressing the issue of companies with negative capital, and much more. In the financial sector, the recent Financial Sector Assessment Program undertaken by the IMF and WB has issued a number of recommendations for structural reforms, including a series of macroprudential policies which the National Bank has already started to implement. Agustin Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlement, said at the presentation of the 2018 Annual Report in Basel: “We must seize the day. Addressing vulnerabilities is key to keeping the growth momentum on track. The stronger performance gives us a window to pursue necessary reforms and recalibrate policies. Let’s not miss this opportunity”. On this note, let me conclude here and wish you all not to miss the opportunities. 7  Figure 1. Real and potential GDP* 1060 1055 1050 1045 1040 1035  GDP  Potential GDP  Source: NBR Note: *logarithmic scale = computed as 100*log(GDP at constant prices)  2018Q1  2017Q3  2017Q1  2016Q3  2016Q1  2015Q3  2015Q1  2014Q3  2014Q1  2013Q3  2013Q1  2012Q3  2012Q1  2011Q3  2011Q1  2010Q3  2010Q1  2009Q3  2009Q1  2008Q3  2008Q1  1030  Figure 2.
18  Ulrich Bindseil, Monetary Policy Operations and the Financial System (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014). 19  Central bank assets include securities held outright or under repurchase agreements, as well as credit extensions and foreign currency-denominated assets. Central bank liabilities include currency, reserve balances, term deposits held by depository institutions, and reverse repos. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  sheet policies away from very low interest rates in supporting the macroeconomic and macroprudential objectives of central banks.20 That said, a large central bank balance sheet relative to currency in circulation raises a number of questions about the monetary authority’s footprint in money markets, which some policymakers say presents potential risks to central bank independence.21 A large footprint may also increase the central bank’s role in money markets in ways that are difficult to anticipate and that may prove to be undesirable.22 One simple principle for monetary policy implementation regimes is to avoid structures where central bank intermediation crowds out activity that private participants can do more effectively and efficiently. Applying this principle is not simple, since expectations of central bank interventions affect private incentives and can produce changes in the structure of markets.23 So central banks need to be mindful of potential unintended consequences of their implementation regimes.

Simon M Potter: Money markets and monetary policy implementation Dinner address by Mr Simon M Potter, Executive Vice President of the Markets Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, for the Bank of England-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Conference on Money Markets and Monetary Policy Implementation, London, 16 November 2015. *  *  *  I would like to thank Deborah Leonard and Antoine Martin for their excellent assistance in the preparation of these remarks and colleagues in the Federal Reserve System and global central bank community for their insightful comments and suggestions. Introduction It is a pleasure to have the opportunity to give the address at tonight’s dinner. I would like to start by thanking the Bank of England for hosting this conference on money markets and monetary policy implementation. It’s hard to think of a better place to discuss these topics than just steps away from the historic Lombard Street, described in Bagehot’s classic book on money markets.1 I also want to thank all of you for actively participating in today’s discussions. One thing I particularly enjoyed about the event was the interaction among market practitioners, central bankers, and researchers. I think the diversity of perspectives that these groups bring contributes to a fruitful dialogue that can help lead to more informed choices and decisions. I will come back to this point.
•  Many of them were also banking supervisors. They saw financial stability as the preserve of prudential regulation and supervision. Those were the good ‘ole days. •  Keep monetary policy focused on macroeconomic stability and regulatory policy on financial stability and all will be well. •  In short, consistency between instrument and objective: Tinbergen would have been proud. Financial stability: what we know, what we don’t The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 changed all that. •  Its devastation and virulence, but most of all, its suddenness, shook conventional macroeconomic thinking. •  HM Queen Elizabeth II asked: “Why did no one see it coming?”  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  •  That question illustrated vividly how little we knew about financial stability, let alone the interactions between the financial sector and the macroeconomy, between monetary policy and financial stability. But there are two things we did learn from the crisis about financial stability. First, macroeconomic stability does not guarantee financial stability. •  Beneath the still waters of macroeconomic stability during the 2000s, deadly whirlpools of financial imbalances were forming. •  The “Goldilocks” or “NICE” economy sharply reduced risk premiums, stoked a credit boom alongside speculative activities that ultimately undermined financial stability. Second, effective regulation of individual institutions does not deliver stability of the financial system as a whole. •  Risks may be reasonably well managed in individual institutions but the system as a whole could be pro-cyclical and hence more risky.

As we complete the final miles of our marathon journey, I am confident that the New Accord will be worthy of our efforts. Thank you. BIS Review 52/2002  7
Jiří Rusnok: The changing world of central banking Keynote speech by Mr Jiří Rusnok, Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the conference of the Czech Economic Society, Prague, 17 May 2021. * * * Ladies and gentlemen, members of the Czech Economic Society, esteemed guests from the Czech Republic and around the world: Let me start by thanking the organisers for inviting me to this conference. It is an honour and a pleasure to be here today to communicate some thoughts about central banks. I will split my address into two thematic parts. In the first, I will talk about central bank independence, about the central banking paradigm from the historical perspective, and about some of the challenges that central banks face today. In the second, I will try to shed some light on the humdrum reality of our monetary policy decision-making during the Covid crisis. I say that with tongue in cheek, because, as you know, real-life decision-making is fortunately never humdrum. Let’s turn the clock back a few decades and briefly remind ourselves how central banks gained their independence and what consequences it had. This will help us understand the framework in which central banks have long been operating and the it is now facing. How did central banks gain their independence? Central bank independence stands on theoretical and empirical foundations.

We are therefore pleased that we have evidently been able to meet the expectations of the banknote users – the Swiss population: - The new designs have been almost universally well received and have also been lauded by banknote experts internationally. - The new notes are technologically state-of-the-art and are also easy to handle, robust and distinctive. - All the logistical processes, including the modification of ATMS to accommodate the new notes, also ran largely smoothly. The substantial media and public interest and the feedback on social media have also been gratifying. When it comes to rapidly informing the public about the security features and the design of the new banknotes, the media naturally play a pivotal role. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of the SNB, thank you for all the work you do. We broke new ground with respect to informing the public as well, introducing ‘Swiss Banknotes’ – an augmented reality app with which users can explore the new series. We are Page 3/4  Berne, 3 September 2019 Thomas Jordan  News conference on new banknotes  convinced that this innovation has helped to make the design and security features of the banknotes more accessible, especially to younger generations. So what happens to the eighth-series notes now? The old banknotes remain legal tender until further notice and can thus continue to be used for making payments. The SNB plans to announce the recall date for the eighth-series notes in the course of 2020.
The North-West and Sogn og Fjordane: In the North-West, there are still only a few contacts that report an increase in employment. Most companies can increase activity by 10-15 per cent without altering their workforce. Retail trade and construction are the only sectors that report an increase in employment. Construction companies  4  BIS Review 61/2004  report some signs of labour market tightness, due in part to the start-up of work on the Ormen Lange project. The use of foreign contract labour in connection with seasonal work in the fish processing industry, the hotel sector, tourism and the engineering industry is increasing. Growth in household demand, petroleum investment and increased activity in the business sector are paving the way for a rise in employment in the period ahead. On the other hand, intensified competition and continued rationalisation in the business sector may have a dampening impact on labour demand. Developments in real economic variables are mirrored in credit markets. In recent years, household income has shown solid growth, and household confidence has been high. Corporate earnings, however, have been low, and until recently companies have primarily focused on enhancing efficiency. Total credit growth is rising approximately on a par with GDP growth. The composition of credit growth in the past year, however, has given ambiguous signals to our interest-rate setting. Growth in household borrowing is high, while growth in corporate borrowing is low. Developments in corporate borrowing shadow developments in corporate investment. Household debt has increased sharply since 1994.

One explanation for this, common to all these countries, appears to be keener competition, which has led to high productivity growth. In the first round, heightened competition affects companies’ profit margins. But enterprises respond by reducing their costs. This occurs in part in the individual business, but subcontractors also come under pressure to reduce their prices and enhance efficiency. Increased competition therefore triggers higher productivity growth in the economy. Low inflation may thus be matched by higher productivity. Economic developments External cyclical developments and events are of considerable importance to developments in the Norwegian economy. In autumn 2003, activity in the global economy picked up from a very low level. After rising sharply for several quarters, economic growth in the US slowed in the second quarter of 2004. Economic growth has picked up from a low level in the euro area. Growth has also gained momentum in Sweden and the UK. Strong growth in the US and China exerted upward pressure on commodity prices in 2003 and into 2004. A number of central banks have increased interest rates. Interest rate increases are expected in a number of countries. Oil prices have also risen considerably during the summer. High oil prices constitute a risk factor with regard to developments in the global economy. In Norway, output growth has picked up after a growth pause in 2003.
The takaful industry continues to exhibit good financial results each year, as reflected in the three-fold increase in total assets to RM6.5 billion in June 2006, as compared to RM1.9 billion five years ago. More significantly, average doubledigit growth rate of 18.9% for net contributions of combined family and general takaful in the past three years, demonstrated the high potential of the industry. Whilst sustaining the current pace of development, there still exists high growth prospect for the takaful sector, in view of the large untapped potential, with the market penetration rate recorded at merely 6.1% in June 2006. Ladies and gentlemen, Bank Negara Malaysia has laid down a number of initiatives to further enhance the competitiveness and growth momentum in the development of the takaful industry. These initiatives emphasised on enhancing operational efficiency, strengthening corporate governance and risk management as well as improving the market practices and consumer awareness. All players need to capitalize on these initiatives for the takaful industry to achieve sustainable success and unleash the potential gains of the Islamic finance in Malaysia and abroad. Allow me to share some significant developments that may shape the future direction of the takaful industry moving forward. Firstly, as the prudential framework evolves towards a predominantly principle-based and riskbased regulatory approach, there will be a greater emphasis on risk management, corporate governance and transparency so as to maintain investor confidence and public trust.

In addition, foreign direct investors have placed more importance on factors other than just the exchange rate alone. In managing exchange rate policy, no amount of exchange rate manipulation would satisfy the interests of all parties at all times. Indeed, it is a stable and fundamentally sound exchange rate system that will best serve the overall economic interests of the country. This will continue to be the objective of our exchange rate policy. Ladies and Gentlemen, Dr. Yilmaz Akyüz’s lecture today would provide an international perspective on managing financial instability and shocks in a more globalised world and touches on some of the issues I have mentioned. Although the regional financial crisis occurred more than six years ago, the issues it raises are not history. They are still very relevant and important. Emerging economies need to continue to evolve approaches and solutions on how best to manage the vulnerabilities and to promote and preserve stability. In this endeavour, there is potential to not only consider what individual economies can do but also the opportunities for regional arrangements or regional solutions. As the region becomes increasingly more integrated in terms of trade and investment flows, the potential for this will be  2  BIS Review 8/2004  greater. The desired outcome is to achieve stability, which in turn, will contribute to the overall stability of the international monetary system and thus, enhance the prospects for shared global prosperity. BIS Review 8/2004  3
As we build our efforts to advance financial literacy, I would like to suggest three areas in which research will be particularly useful in the period ahead: (i) First, factors affecting the financial literacy and capability of consumers. This may include elements that correlate with consumer behaviours in financial management and how they choose and decide on financial products and services. (ii) Second, factors affecting consumers' financial resilience. This may include vulnerabilities and emerging risks from the changing in the financial landscape, for example, digitisation of financial products and services, or economic shocks. The research could also identify the challenges to make sure that the delivery of financial literacy is effective in supporting financial resilience. (iii) And third, intervention gaps and innovative ways to bridge the gaps. Findings from this area of research could add value to how we design and develop evidence-based interventions. One suggestion is to find out how we can take advantage of behaviourally-inspired features that can be easily embedded in digital tools such as reminders or apps for micro-savings or micro-investments, and potentially use these features for monitoring and evaluation of the financial literacy initiatives. I believe, that with the right digital tools and applications, we can amplify the impact of financial education by increasing reach and scaling up interventions in a cost-effective way. All of these should seek to help us better understand how we can help consumers make good choices and avoid bad ones.

I trust that the topics today help us consider the state of play of financial literacy in Malaysia, what works and how to improve our financial education interventions. I also look forward to the debate on the implications of digitalisation on financial literacy and consumer protection – this can sharpen our appreciation for the difficult trade-offs between the benefits and risks of digitalisation to financial consumers, and consider the role of digital financial literacy in promoting financial well-being in the digital age. Distinguished guests, Neil Armstrong once said that "research is creating new knowledge". As policymakers and practitioners, the research of the sort we will be deliberating today is exciting because it introduces valuable insights into designing and evaluating effective interventions, tailored to the needs of those in our population. There are many ideas out there on promoting better education outcomes – be it by refreshing traditional delivery approaches (like competitions, classes or webinars) or deploying new tools such as edutainment games or those driven by artificial intelligence. However, what matters most is not the novelty of new approaches, but whether or not our efforts work well – and yield a high return in terms of financial literacy and financial well-being. Insights from the research are important to develop targeted interventions that address the financial education needs in our population. It can also give answers to what are the challenges faced by consumers to access or obtain financial education.
Overview of the main developments since December 2006  Let me start by recalling some of the key developments since our previous assessment in December 2006. Overall, the macroeconomic environment has continued to be favourable. Global growth has remained robust and some rebalancing of activity among the main economic areas has occurred. In the euro area, economic growth has exceeded expectations, leading to upwards revisions to our own growth projections and to the Consensus GDP forecasts (as shown in the chart on the left of slide 3). In both the banking and insurance sectors, profitability continued improving. Moreover, global financial markets have, for the most part, been characterised by unusually subdued volatility, while credit spreads have remained low. Notwithstanding this favourable background, between late February and early March 2007, the shockabsorbing capacity of the global and euro area financial systems was again tested by the third significant burst of market volatility in the past two years. This was comfortably weathered and the stock market recovered quickly (seen on the right chart of slide 3). Improvements in the risk management practices of financial firms appear to have contributed to ensuring that higher financial market volatility did not prevent capital markets from facilitating the intermediation of capital. The fact that the global and euro area financial systems have so far proved resilient to a series of adverse disturbances is comforting, but it does not provide any ground for complacency.

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