samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In addition, the external imbalances have moderated and the fiscal accounts continue to consolidate. Still, there is only weak support for a more robust expansion in the region. In this context, there has been a widespread increase in risk appetite, raising stock prices, reducing sovereign premiums and boosting capital flows into the emerging world (figure 11). The terms of trade also show a significant improvement, largely due to a combination of higher prices for copper and lower for oil than assumed in December. The prices of other export products have also risen. Copper has remained at its highest price in two years. This responds partly to the aforementioned better performance of the manufacturing sectors and the better world growth outlook. Another part is explained by supply disruptions in some important producers and the lack of new investments. Thus, we have risen our projections of its price to $ and $ per pound for 2017 and 2018, respectively. The oil price, after some rise after the agreement between OPEC and other producers to reduce output, has fallen in recent weeks. Our baseline scenario foresees it close to 50 dollars per barrel in the projection horizon. With this, in 2017 and 2018 the terms of trade should not only outperform 2016, but should also be higher than was anticipated in December (table 2). 6  In the baseline scenario, monetary policy is providing a somewhat stronger impulse than estimated in December.

In any case, one must always keep in mind whether a persistent drop in activity is the result of a cyclical problem in the economy or responds to a more permanent phenomenon, such as lower potential growth. In the latter case, it is not evident that the output gap is much wider in the face of a slowdown and, therefore, it is not evident that medium-term inflationary pressures are lower. Again, the conduct of monetary policy of the past few years is a good example of how it implicitly ensures economic stability, as its stance remained expansionary even with annual inflation rates above 4%, understanding that they obeyed to an exceptional episode of exchange rate depreciation. The prolonged period of low growth that Chile has endured in recent years has put downward pressures on medium-term inflation. Therefore, within this framework that I have described, monetary policy has been and will continue to be expansionary. Measuring how expansionary monetary policy is, is no easy task. Typically, the so-called neutral rate is used as a benchmark. Our most recent estimates, which we reported in a box in our Monetary Policy Report of last September, place it between 1% and 1.5% in real terms. With a real MPR that is now at zero and with the prospect of a further reduction in the near future, which we use as a working assumption for the baseline 10  scenario of this Report, there is no doubt that we are providing a considerable boost to the economy.
On the other hand, the financial sector acts as an intermediary between monetary policy decisions and the overall economy. It contributes to an efficient economic system and to the prosperity of our country. The SNB thus needs a competitive and stable banking system to fulfil its mandate. The long-term goals of the SNB and the banking sector usually go hand-in-hand. Monetary stability and a strong financial sector are in our common interest. They represent long-term assets for the whole economy and for Switzerland as a country. Ladies and Gentlemen, thank you very much for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Charts Chart 1  Source: SNB  Chart 2  8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 3  Chart 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  Chart 5  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches

For example, asset fire sales dynamics that negatively impact market prices or a loss of confidence in the industry during periods of uncertainty or distress are examples of “externalities” with far-reaching effects on the financial system.7 Moreover, those costs and benefits will be realized in the future and thus need to be assessed ex ante from a probabilistic perspective. The official sector includes all of these costs and benefits to society in assessments of policy efficacy. This makes evaluating trade-offs and assessing effectiveness difficult, and suggests that simple assessments are likely to be incomplete. Policy assessment requires a rigorous evaluation of a broad range of outcomes, and an important part of the ongoing dialogue in conferences like this one is to continue to develop the conceptual frameworks and to study the data in order to make the most meaningful assessments of policy effectiveness. A Look at Bank Performance I will now discuss two perspectives on bank performance since the financial crisis that serve as rough proxies for the resilience of the industry and the provision of financial services. This is clearly not a rigorous test of whether specific regulations are optimal, but provides some indicative results about trends in resiliency and financial services. I will focus on accounting metrics from the balance sheet and income statement, but one could also turn to market data to assess resiliency.
Since the absorbed liquidity is tied up in the form of securities, the banks cannot use it either as a means of payment (like cash or sight deposits) or to satisfy their minimum reserve requirements. To the extent that SNB Bills are purchased by non-banks, customer deposits in the banking system decrease, thereby directly reducing the broader monetary aggregates. The decisive factor in determining the degree of monetary policy restrictiveness remains the level of interest rates on the money market. And we are able to control this level by tailoring the scope and conditions of our liquidity-absorbing operations accordingly. The shift in the liquidity regime has brought about a certain number of changes in SNB central bank operations with banks. For instance, we now normally only conduct operations with banks that need to place excess liquidity. The group of these banks is fairly large, consisting of 80 mainly domestic banks. Something that we no longer offer, by contrast, is regular refinancing. Banks now have to cover their refinancing needs via the money market. Refinancing through the SNB is available only in exceptional circumstances via the liquidityshortage financing facility, at a higher rate of interest. Access to this facility should thus be part of domestic banks’ own liquidity arrangements. A further effect of the regime shift on the money market is that the SNB pays the banks interest for liquidity-absorbing operations, whereas previously it received interest payments for providing liquidity.

These will require a more delicate and effective monetary policy action. 2. New forms of protectionism Another reason that makes monetary policy decisions more difficult is the rising trend of new forms of protectionism. When Russia invaded Ukraine, businesses throughout the world attempted to untangle their supply chains from the warring countries, and governments were hard-pressed to act as gas and food constraints became a reality. Many nations selected 'protectionism' measures to shore up their trade and economy, prioritizing domestic resources to meet domestic requirements, frequently through export restrictions. Temporary protectionism provides security during a crisis, but its widespread adoption, with no clear end point, can distort trade and shut off important suppliers from the global supply chain. As a trend, it is a cause for concern: Because, while food and oil are popular targets for protection programs, this list is expanding. As the pace of global economic integration slows, the downward pressure that globalisation has had on inflation diminishes. We can therefore expect higher inflationary pressures and volatility in the medium term and this situation will make the objectives of Monetary Policy even more complex to be achieved. Developments in the Cyprus economy and the Cyprus banking sector Let me now turn on the developments in Cyprus. Domestic economy  3/6  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  The Cyprus economy, continued to record noteworthy GDP growth despite the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
During the year, the ACP thus developed a more cross-functional mode of operating, thereby responding to the intention that led the Government to merge the former authorities in 2010. The ACP’s College has set out priorities for the supervision of each of the two sectors in a coordinated manner, and the ACP has set up an autonomous and cross-functional research directorate. On the other hand, in line with international and European initiatives, the ACP’s supervisory methods are complemented by the “stress test” approach to ever more complex scenarios and by the monitoring of the systemic nature of certain institutions. Organised by the European authorities (the EBA for banks and the EIOPA for insurance companies) and the Basel Committee respectively and implemented concretely in France by the ACP, these approaches supplement the individual supervision of banks and facilitate the macroprudential supervision of the financial system. The ACP’s supervision methods have also fully taken on board its remit with respect to consumer protection, which is an essential condition for maintaining consumer confidence in the French financial sector. The ACP’s mandate is to promote, in coordination with the AMF – the report of our joint unit will be presented to you shortly – the sound conduct of market players’ commercial practices  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  without hampering responsible financial innovation that is suited to each category of customers. In 2011, the ACP thus took a whole range of measures, of which I will only mention the main ones.

This confirms their capacity to meet the targets set for 30 June 2012 by the European Banking Authority (EBA), thereby contributing to their adaptation to the future Basel III regulatory framework and the fulfilment of the objectives announced to the market. Lastly, the ACP has resolutely placed its individual supervision within a macro-prudential perspective. Our Authority has been particularly attentive to the way banks fulfil their role in financing the economy via the extension of loans to non-financial companies and to households, in a context in which both regulatory changes and liquidity constraints, particularly in dollars, have prompted certain groups to deleverage. It has undertaken an in-depth analysis and published studies on developments in household credit as well as the reallocation of households’ financial investments, particularly between bank savings products and insurance savings products. II)  2011 – and this is my second point – was a year that saw the reinforcement of the methods used in prudential supervision. It was above all the year in which the process of merging banking and insurance supervision was completed. Having been set up in the midst of the crisis that we are going through, the ACP continually reviews the methods it uses to deal with new challenges. On the one hand, the traditional activities of on- and off-site inspections have been enhanced by taking the best procedures and practices from each of the two sectors, leading to improved quality and comparability in the assessment of the situation of the different institutions being inspected.
The benefit is not limited only to enhancing credit evaluation, but also provides the foundation for more effective portfolio analysis and management on an ongoing basis that are the hallmarks of any effective risk management system. For example, the overall quality of the SME portfolio can be monitored based on information available from the Bureau to  BIS Review 67/2008  3  support analyses on the distribution of financing by rating, migration analysis and stress tests. The findings from portfolio analysis supported by the bureau information would assist SME financiers to better price their SME financing and facilitate more effective allocations of capital. Moving forward, one of the roles that the SME Credit Bureau can effectively play is to provide market research and reports on the SME industry. This will expand its user base beyond SME financiers and creditors to include policy makers, economic and investment analysts, and even academic scholars. The credit information infrastructure in Malaysia is advance, relative to other countries in a similar stage of economic development. Our main credit information database currently is the CCRIS that captures information on all credit facilities extended by licensed banking institutions in Malaysia , as well as other institutions regulated by Bank Negara. While access to CCRIS is limited for the time being mostly to regulated financial institutions, we are encouraged by the progress made by private bureaus, such as the SME Credit Bureau, in providing access to credit information to a wider user base, as well as developing new value added products and services.

The information provided by the SME Credit Bureau can further support efforts by banks to strengthen risk management for their SME portfolios, regardless of the level of sophistication and size of the institutions. Banks with an SME credit model already in place can benefit from the Bureau information in various ways. For example, as the Bureau rating is determined based on diverse information obtained from various sources including CCRIS, trade credit data and the Companies Commission of Malaysia, banks can use such information to bridge any information gaps and address the limited pool of internal data available for their internal models. Such gaps currently exist, as banks in general are highly dependent on borrower information alone. In addition, given the diversity of information available within the SME Credit Bureau, banks would now have access to information on various economic sectors that may not be available within existing credit portfolios. At the same time, Bureau ratings could be used by the banks to validate the robustness of their own internal models by comparing the ratings produced between their internal ratings and that by the SME Credit Bureau. For smaller and less sophisticated banks, the Bureau information will supplement the current SME credit assessment methodology that is traditionally qualitative in nature. Such banks will be able to obtain quantitative information from the Bureau database to enhance the overall credit evaluation process, thereby supporting more informed and objective credit decisions.
Our growth forecast entails that resource utilisation is still expected to rise only weakly and thereby remain relatively moderate during 2004 and 2005. Signs of lower domestic cost pressure Last year employment growth in the business sector was weaker than expected, while economic growth was approximately in line with expectations. This means that productivity growth exceeded our expectations. The most recent National Accounts figures also indicate stronger productivity growth last year than was assumed in December. It is likely that this has contributed to lower inflationary pressure during 2003. However, of greater interest for monetary policy is what this says about the future; is what we’re seeing an indication of permanently higher productivity growth? We don’t know this yet of course. There are many problems associated with the data in this area and even if this were not the case, it would be difficult to determine what had caused the developments we have seen recently. But this uncertainty is no reason to completely disregard the new information we have received. Just like the latter part of the 1990s, when productivity was also unexpectedly positive, there is now perhaps cause for a somewhat more optimistic view of supply conditions in the Swedish economy. One important, perhaps decisive question is what consequences the weak labour demand and the strong productivity growth will have for the outcomes of wage negotiations. It is clear that labour market conditions suggest moderate wage rises.

This must be taken in the light of all the information that is available at the time. For my part, I will also look forward with great interest to what my colleagues have to say. Thank you. BIS Review 6/2004  5
For 2012, the inflation rate will amount to –0.7%. For 2013, we expect inflation of –0.1% and for 2014, 0.4%. In the foreseeable future, therefore, there is no risk of inflation in Switzerland. The third quarter of 2012 saw weak growth and a decline in trading activity worldwide. Although growth in the US economy and some of the emerging economies picked up, a mild recession persisted in the euro area. In Switzerland, real GDP in the third quarter increased again following a temporary downturn. For the fourth quarter, however, we expect significant weakening in growth. Consequently, economic growth in Switzerland for the year 2012 is likely to remain unchanged at around 1.0%. For 2013, we expect growth of 1.0–1.5%. The downside risks for the Swiss economy remain considerable. Although the measures announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) have significantly reduced the probability of extreme developments in the monetary union, there is still substantial uncertainty in connection with the management of the debt crisis in the euro area. It also remains to be seen how far the upcoming budget consolidation in the US will hamper growth. This question is weighing on the sentiment in the financial markets and the real economy. Moreover, momentum in the Swiss residential mortgage and real estate markets remains strong, and has led to a further increase in risks for financial stability. Global economic outlook I would now like to outline the outlook for the global economy and Switzerland in more detail.

Also, we cannot exclude the possibility that we will have to intervene substantially again. From the beginning we made it clear that enforcement of the minimum exchange rate was associated with risks. We are endeavouring to reduce the balance sheet risks through suitable diversification of our foreign currency investment. However, the exchange rate risk on the foreign exchange reserves is based on monetary policy considerations and the SNB is therefore obliged to bear it. My colleague, Fritz Zurbrügg, will talk about the management of the foreign exchange reserves in his remarks. Through its monetary policy, the SNB serves as a buffer for the Swiss economy and cushions the effect of severe shocks. Because it has a long-term focus, it is in a position to carry substantial risks. This means we can react flexibly in exceptional situations in order to fulfil our mandate, which is to ensure price stability while taking due account of economic developments. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Jaime Caruana: Coordinating regulation and supervision of banks - Basel II and beyond Remarks by Mr Jaime Caruana, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, at the Global Operational Risk Forum of the Risk Management Association, Paris, 24 October 2003. *  *  *  I would like to thank the organizers for inviting me to this forum on operational risk. As the new Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, it is a pleasure for me to join you, the members of the Risk Management Association, in a discussion about the latest trends in capital and risk management. Overview Many of you have travelled great distances to join us here. Perhaps part of the attraction was the chance to enjoy the charms of autumn in Paris. But the main reason is that you believe risk management matters. Indeed, from their first meetings in Philadelphia almost 90 years ago, the members of the Risk Management Association have long helped to promote sound risk management, offering training, educational resources, and forums such as today’s event to financial professionals. Moreover, for more than 80 years the RMA has emphasised the analysis of quantitative data in helping to evaluate risk through its collection and annual publication of financial data and benchmarks. Through your efforts, and the efforts of associations similar to the RMA, you are helping to advance the state of the art in the management of credit, market, and operational risk and to encourage responsible banking practices.

The Fund should be a forum in which countries can discuss these risks. It should also hold countries to account. In these ways, it can indirectly support global monetary stability. With countries naturally reluctant to cede any control over their own monetary and fiscal policies, it is likely that the IMF will have as instruments only the powers of analysis, persuasion, and, in Keynes’ own favourite words, “ruthless truth-telling”. That phrase does not conjure up many memories of any of the many international meetings I have attended. But unless the IMF has the self-confidence to play  4  BIS Review 11/2006  that role, its deliberations and statements will carry little weight. The Fund requires an independent, respected and clear voice. The Fund should focus its work on the international monetary system around three tasks. First, it should provide and share information about the balance sheets of all major countries, their composition and size, and the links between them. The Fund has been in the forefront of the analysis of balance sheets for emerging market economies, and it needs to extend this approach to its surveillance of the industrialised world. In conducting this analysis, the Fund must look at countries’ exchange rate choices. But no one price is a sufficient statistic for the effect of one country’s policies on the rest of the world - even one as important as the exchange rate. Balance sheet analysis should be at the heart of the surveillance process.