Public savings will remain around 2% of GDP over the projection horizon, in line with compliance with the structural balance target. It is estimated that the current-account deficit will close this year at 3.7% of GDP, to stand at around 4% in 2024 and 2025. In the central scenario, Gross Fixed Capital Formation will maintain a low profile. This projection continues to incorporate a complex external scenario, with high uncertainty and still restrictive financial conditions. Survey information also shows low levels of investment for the coming quarters, and entrepreneurial expectations continue to be pessimistic, mostly so in the construction sector (table 1). The external impulse relevant to Chile will remain moderate. Although first-quarter figures exceeded expectations in some economies, such as China, several factors suggest that this will be transitory. In fact, bank credit to companies has tightened in the U.S. and the Eurozone, pointing to a weak performance of activity and investment ahead. In Latin America, the outlook remains unfavorable, as it combines deteriorating financial conditions with stress factors in several economies. In this context, fiscal spending is not expected to be a major source of external momentum, given the fiscal consolidation process and the weak global scenario. Thus, and heavily influenced by China's improved performance earlier in the year, our trading partners' projected growth for 2023 rises to 3%, up from the 2.4% estimated in March. For 2024 and 2025, there is no change, with projected increases of 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively (figure 18).

Going forward, tight external financial conditions linked to inflation control and low fiscal policy space are expected to impact the global economy negatively. In this sense, credit dynamics in the developed economies anticipate a weak performance of activity and investment. Global financial conditions remain tight, although the volatility associated with the recent banking tensions has decreased. Compared with the March Report, long-term interest rates have shown mixed movements, as they have risen in developed countries and declined in the emerging world. Currencies also performed unevenly, while stock markets have generally traded higher. Nevertheless, developments in the U.S. banking system continue to be a source of uncertainty. Market sentiment  3  remains fragile, with doubts about the extent and magnitude of the latent vulnerabilities in the financial sector (figure 13). In Chile, the financial market has aligned itself with a scenario where inflation will converge to the 3% target and the MPR will begin a downward process in the second half of the year. Thus, both expert surveys and financial prices point to inflation converging to 3% within the two-year monetary policy horizon (figure 14). All this has taken place while the economy has continued to adjust and local uncertainty has diminished (figure 15). Worth noting is the local forex market, whose proper functioning has allowed the Central Bank to dismantle the position of the non-delivery forwards (NDF) program and begin a program of rebuilding international reserves to strengthen our country's international liquidity position.