samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The Congressional Budget Office currently projects such additional borrowing to average $ billion annually over the next ten years. 5  Interestingly, Treasury bonds were traded on the New York Stock Exchange during the late 1910s and early 1920s, as the market grew with wartime financing needs. However, trading migrated to an over-the-counter market in the first half of the 1920s, in part because institutional investors, who were becoming an increasingly important part of the Treasury’s investor base, found it a more efficient means of transferring risk. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The interdealer Treasury market has undergone significant changes over its life and looks very different now than it did in recent decades. One obvious change is technological. As early as the mid-1970s, dealers would use brokerage screens as sources of aggregated information on the best bids and offers, but through the 1990s they continued to conduct transactions through voice channels. This practice began to change around the turn of the twenty-first century, when electronic means of transacting began to grow. Now, of course, nearly all trades are conducted electronically in the interdealer market, with transactions occurring via computer systems Another important change in the interdealer Treasury market relates to the issue of access.

We cannot justify having a banking system that depends on the use of public money to douse the fire when the crisis comes. And we also cannot allow conditions to exist where risks are taken on the basis that this backstop exists. “Too big” or “Too important to fail” are shorthand for institutions that exist in their chosen form as a result of underwriting with public money. I don’t believe that there is anything controversial about a statement that no industry can take on a form which is a consequence of such a massive potential, and of course recently actual, call on public money. The big issue is therefore what to do to correct the situation. There are three elements to the debate: regulation, structure and resolution. We can re-design and re-build the fire prevention systems in the existing landscape. This is the regulation element. At the heart of this is action on capital requirements, including a role for contingent capital and larger liquidity buffers. But we may also conclude that we want to prevent fires by having a different landscape of buildings – a town planning solution in which the structure of the industry is re-drawn. And in the past, cities were rebuilt with that objective in mind. This is the structure element. But, whichever combination of these courses we choose to take, we cannot guarantee that there will be no fires in the future, and we would be extremely foolish if we made that promise.
Svensson, “Inflation targeting”, in B. M. Friedman and M. Woodford, (eds. ), Handbook of Monetary Economics, vol. 3, pp. 1237–1302, Elsevier, 2010. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  account the mean value for the forecast: the uncertainty over future shocks does not affect the optimal monetary policy (in technical terms one says that certainty equivalence holds). The uncertainty then does not affect the decision on the repo rate, but it does affect target fulfilment. However, there are several aspects that mean that one cannot rely on the results obtained in this type of model. The Riksbank reports a main forecast that is not merely a model forecast; it is based on both models and judgement. It is not easy to explicitly report all of the assessments and deliberations behind the overall results. However, it is possible to do this within the framework of a formalised model like the Riksbank’s macro model Ramses.11 But of course, this is not a perfect description of reality. There is uncertainty over both the structure of the model and its parameters. Other models would probably reach other results with regard to the most appropriate monetary policy. Another question concerns the nature of the forecasts. The forecasts the Riksbank now reports are in principle intended to be unbiased forecasts. But as Goodhart and Rochet pointed out in their evaluation of the Riksbank’s work, these assumptions do not hold in reality.12 In practice, longer-term forecasts are rarely unbiased. They can rather be regarded as possible scenarios contingent on certain external conditions.

It is quite simply impossible to make any reliable forecasts for two and three years ahead. My opinion is that it is normally fairly meaningless to have a firm opinion of what will happen in two and three years’ time. But there are exceptions, particularly in situations where resource utilisation is very low. During 2008–2009 we assessed that the repo rate would be at an exceptionally low level for one year and we backed this up by lending around SEK 300 billion to the banks at this low interest rate for one year. We should continue to report a main scenario for economic developments and the repo rate over the coming three years, a scenario where inflation approaches 2 per cent and resource utilisation approaches a normal level. But we should regard this merely as a potential scenario. It is important that monetary policy follows a predictable pattern. We endeavour to avoid surprising the market. This means that we normally change the repo rate and the reporate path in gradual small steps, where the steps are due to new information received since the most recent monetary policy meeting, and that we react in roughly the same way to the same type of changes in the new information. Such stability means that we can avoid causing problems on the financial markets, and that we can have a greater impact on the markets when an unexpected event occurs. We should also continue to analyse the consequences of various sequences of events.
The main characteristics proposed by the European Commission are: - Taxonomy alignment: meaning that the funds raised by the bond should be allocated to projects that are aligned with the EU taxonomy. - Transparency as to how bond proceeds are allocated, through detailed reporting requirements. - External review: all European green bonds must be checked by an external reviewer to ensure compliance with regulations and taxonomy alignment of the funded projects, and,  2  See ECB (2023). Towards climate-related statistical indicators. Statistics Committee of the European System of Central Banks. January. 3  - Supervision by the European Securities Markets Authority (ESMA) of the reviewers. This means that external reviewers providing services to issuers of European green bonds must be registered with and supervised by ESMA. The European Council and the European Parliament have this year reached a provisional agreement on the creation of this European Green Bonds Standard. Pending the final text, a very important element of the proposal is that the standard will be voluntary. The European Central Bank issued an opinion in 2021 on the proposal for a regulation on European green bonds,3 which it welcomed. Regarding its voluntary nature, the ECB considered that, in the short term, a strictly mandatory standard might lead to divestment from non-taxonomy-aligned green bonds and a sudden drop in Union-based green bond issuance.

Atchana Waiquamdee: Brief look at financial market indicators Opening remarks by Dr Atchana Waiquamdee, Deputy Governor for Monetary Stability, Bank of Thailand, at the Workshop on Financial Market Indicators, Bangkok, 7 June 2007. *  *  *  Good morning, and allow me to welcome you to Bangkok, and to this morning’s Workshop on Financial Market Indicators. The issue we are about to discuss today, namely the use financial indicators, itself is not a new topic. Especially in more developed financial markets, the use of financial indicators has been integral to the well-functioning of markets. In those cases, utilizing financial market indicators in the policy-making process is nothing new. In many of the emerging markets of Asia, however, this has not been the case. Financial indicators in the emerging markets have been more difficult to come by, and even much more difficult to interpret – due largely to gaps in market development. Yet, as the financial markets of Asian economies began to gather both depth and breadth, more and more financial market indicators are becoming readily available for policy use. Since the availability of the indicators in emerging markets is rather recent and the fundamental conditions in these markets are still very dissimilar to those of the more matured ones, the use of financial market indicators in emerging markets for policy purposes merits much thought and attention. So what exactly are we talking about when referring to financial market indicators?
According to the Consumer Finances and Socio-economic Survey of the Central Bank 6 , the underemployment in the agriculture sector in 1996/97 stood at 31 percent of the employed. This rose to 36 percent by 2003/04. In contrast, the underemployment in the services sector fell from 20 percent to 18 percent between the two reference periods, while that in the industry remained unchanged at 20 percent. The message conveyed by this unfavorable development is clear: remove a greater part of those employed in the agriculture sector in order to raise its efficiency and future sustainability. Hence, the appropriate policy strategy should be to raise productivity in agriculture through intensification of farming with high-yielding varieties by employing a lesser number of work-force. Agriculture has a further limitation in the form of low productivity and low contribution to GDP. Since about a one third of the labor force is engaged in agriculture, its total output is distributed among a large number of workers. According to the World Bank data 7 , the agricultural value added per agricultural worker in Sri Lanka, measured in 2000 dollars, has been $ 696 for 1989 – 91. This rose marginally to $ 737 in 2001 – 03. The comparable figures for other countries have been much higher than this: USA $ 26,105 and $ 47,566; Australia $ 26,601 and 26,957; Sweden $ 20,416 and $ 30,469; Malaysia $ 3694 and $ As a result, the income of agricultural workers in Sri Lanka has been very low, keeping them below the poverty line.

The importance of the services sector for both industry and agriculture can be identified by examining the full-range of modern production flows. In fact, this is something which many have tended to disregard and therefore assign a lower value to services than real productions like agriculture and industry. Such a flow which should come one stage after the other in the order given, is presented in the following tabular exposition:  Modern production flows Stage  Process  Identity  1  Basic Research  Service  2  Applied Research  Service  3  Incubation and Testing  Service  4  Commercial Development  Service  5  Planning and Financing  Service  6  Manufacturing  Industry  7  Warehousing, Transporting and Marketing  Service  8  Financing  Service  9  After-sale services and maintenance  Service  10  Continued Research and Development for Next Generation Products  Service  It is apparent that only one out of the 10 different production stages constitutes industry (or agriculture) and all others are services. If one is concerned about developing agriculture or industry, he cannot ignore all the essential service ingredients that should precede and follow the actual act of production. Since people see only the visible output, they fail to observe the full range of other services that have contributed to its creation as well as subsequent continuation.
At the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided that the amount of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) we have been purchasing should each be pared back by $ billion, so that we would be purchasing a total of $ billion a month (in addition to reinvesting the proceeds of maturing issues we hold) rather than $ billion per month. In addition, it was noted that “if incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation(s) … the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings.” And it was made clear that the FOMC expects it will hold the base rate that anchors the yield curve – the federal funds rate, or the rate on overnight money – to its present near-zero rate well past the time when unemployment is reduced to 6½ percent. I was pleased with the decision to finally begin tapering our bond purchases, though I would have preferred to pull back our purchases by double the announced amount. But the important thing for me is that the committee began the process of slowing down the ballooning of our balance sheet, which at year-end exceeded $ trillion. And we began – and I use that word deliberately, for we have more to do on this front – to clarify our intentions for managing the overnight money rate. As an economist would say, “on net” I was rather pleased with the decision taken at the December FOMC meeting.

The exhibition was previously on display to the public in Bratislava to mark the cash changeover in Slovakia. It was also shown in Barcelona until last week. Other locations on its journey throughout Europe will follow. BIS Review 44/2009  1  The primary objective of the Euro Exhibition is to give the public at large the opportunity to gain a thorough overview of the euro banknotes and coins and to raise its awareness of their security features. It features, inter alia, modules on the history of money, the design elements of euro banknotes and coins and the functioning of banknote security features. It also includes a range of interactive elements to raise the visitors’ attention via touch screen applications such as games, films or security feature showcases displaying counterfeit banknotes. You are cordially invited to make use of all the elements which will contribute to make your visit a learning, interesting and amusing experience at the same time. You will certainly notice that the Euro Exhibition features a common design: the “Ages and styles of Europe”. As you know, there are windows and doorways depicted on the front of each euro banknote and bridges on the back. These architectural elements symbolise communication and connection between the people of Europe and between Europe and the rest of the world. Furthermore, bridges are regarded as a means to connect the past with the future, symbolising thus the way to a common European future. A children’s corner has been established to meet children’s special expectations.
The immediate impact of the war in Ukraine on financial stability has so far been adequately absorbed as the direct exposures of the financial sector to Russia were low. However, risks to banks and financial stability may materialise through second-round effects and indirect channels from pre-existing vulnerabilities, notably those associated with (i) sectors most dependent on energy commodities, (ii) the development of leveraged finance and (iii) exposure to cyber-attacks. In this respect, particular attention should be paid to potentially sharp revaluations of high risk asset prices. The same holds true for rising prices and volatility in commodity markets and the considerable increase in margin calls on derivatives, in particular for energy and agricultural products. These have already put pressure on the liquidity of commodity market participants. Very careful monitoring of credit and liquidity risks in the energy commodities sector is therefore required, in particular to ensure that any potential default (e.g. by a trader) remains contained and does not lead to systemic contagion. Our second instrument for maintaining and strengthening banks' shock absorption capacity, after supervision, is regulation. I would like once again to stress the importance of an effective, fair and final implementation of the Basel III Accord, in its final 2017 version. As I said it last year, quoting the Governor, and it is even more the case today in the light of the crises we are facing: the Basel III rules represent the best possible agreement to promote financial stability at the international level.

Challenges associated with climate change and the digitalisation of finance To conclude these remarks, I would like to say a few words about the role we can play as supervisors and central bankers to help banks on the path towards a sustainable economy and the digitalisation of finance. On the first point, the recent publication of the latest contribution to the IPCC’s1 6th Assessment Report reminds us of the urgent need for a transition to carbon neutrality. Supervisors have already started to assess the exposure of financial institutions to the resulting transition risks, in order to encourage them to identify, assess and manage these risks in the  1  Contribution of Working Group III of the IPCC published on 4 April 2022  4  same way as traditional risks - and the ACPR has played a pioneering role with the first stress test on climate risks. Climate risks will be gradually integrated into the prudential framework, starting with requirements under Pillars 2 and 3. Banks need to prepare for these future regulatory requirements, including those relating to climate risk stress tests and to transition plans. The latter are part of the CRD6 proposal, which is currently under negotiation. As regards Pillar 1, the integration of climate risks continues to be the subject of intense debate and I hope that the publication of an EBA consultation paper will enable us to move forward. However, the many methodological and data limitations will need to be addressed before new requirements are implemented.
It has never been the intention of the MPC to retain indefinitely the stock of assets purchased as part of QE. 9 Were it to do so, there is a risk that maintaining such a large stock of government debt as a monetary policy tool might blur some external perceptions of the distinction between monetary and fiscal policy. That could lead to doubts over the independence with which we were pursuing our objective of price stability, which would represent a significant step backward. Decisions on the stock of gilts held in the APF have always been made solely by the MPC in the sole pursuit of its monetary policy objectives mandated by Parliament and that should always remain the case. Central bank independence has been shown to bring great economic benefit in the form of lower and more stable inflation – a result that has stood the test of the financial crisis and is something we should treasure. 10  8  Joyce, M, Tong, M and Woods, R (2011), “The United Kingdom’s quantitative easing policy: design, operation and impact”, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Vol. 51, No. 3, pages 200–12.

It may be useful to distinguish between three channels through which monetary policy operates: •  The demand channel  •  The exchange rate channel  •  The expectations channel  The effect on inflation of changes in interest rates occurs with a lag and may vary in intensity. In the time it takes for a change in interest rates to feed through, other factors will also have an impact resulting in changes in inflation and output. We cannot assume that the various relationships are entirely stable. As interest rates fall, household and municipal consumption and investment will tend to accelerate. This is because they have more money left over after servicing their debt and because borrowing is less expensive. Corporate finances are strengthened and investment may become more attractive. Higher demand leads to higher output and employment. Wage growth may pick up. Higher wage growth combined with higher profit margins will result in higher inflation. The effect of interest rate changes may be amplified because the interest rate also affects the krone exchange rate. When interest rates are lower, more people will borrow money and fewer will invest in NOK. Lower interest rates will thus normally lead to a depreciation of the krone. Imported goods will then become more expensive and inflation will accelerate. A weaker krone also boosts exports and improves profitability in Norwegian business and industry. The effect on the exchange rate of a change in interest rates will vary as themes and sentiments shift in the foreign exchange market.
If current rates of machine advance were to continue, it is simply a matter of time before humans lose pole position. And, once passed, what hope of humans ever catching up? As the evolutionary arc of humans split from animals thousands of years ago, the upwards arc of machines may be about to detach from humans. Some of the writing is already on the wall. In 1997, a significant milestone was passed when the IBM supercomputer Deep Blue beat the world chess champion, Gary Kasporov. A generation later in 2016, another milestone was passed when an algorithm called AlphaGo, developed by AI company DeepMind, for the first time beat the world champion at Go (a game considerably more complex than chess), Lee Sedol. These are just board games and two-person board games at that. The game of life is infinitely more complex, involving many-more moves among many-more combinations of players. Nonetheless it is worth asking how machines compare when it comes to the everyday, but complex, tasks humans perform. Looked at function by function, some of that paranoia about the rise of the robots begins to look justified. The processing capacity of super-computers already exceeds the human brain by an order of magnitude. Courtesy of Moore’s Law, that gap will widen at an ever-increasing rate over time. For some critical faculties - seeing, hearing, learning - machines are already well ahead of humans. The sensors in a self-driving car have far-better vision than any human. Alexa already does a much better job of hearing than Andy.

Armed with Big Data on someone’s genome and health history, an algorithm could diagnose many ailments, and prescribe treatments, as well as humans if not better. Would doing so sound the death knell for doctors and surgeons? I suspect not. Medical professionals are likely to draw increasingly on data and algorithmic insights. But there will be an accompanying, increasingly important, role for human judgement, explanation and empathy. Indeed, it is already the case that these human skills are often among the most highly-valued by patients. In a world of robo-medical advice, the balance of doctors’ skills will shift further in this interpersonal direction. As with much of human history, this will be a case not so much of humans versus machines as humans with machines. The evolutionary arc of humankind will not switch, discretely, from one defined by neurology to one defined by technology. What we could see instead is a co-evolutionary arc with minds and machines, neurology and technology, co-mingled and complementary.34 In a number of tasks they already are. 31  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34066941 Bughin et al (2018) Bakhshl et al (2015). 34 Tegmark (2017). 32 33  14  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  14  Take chess. A generation on from Deep Blue beating Gary Kasparov, you might expect machines to have taken an unassailable lead. In fact, they have not. The world chess championship is not waged between mainframes.