samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The dual objective of PEPP  5/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  To enhance the effectiveness of our asset purchases, the PEPP has to be operationalised in a way that it meets the described dual objective. The PEPP is not an interventionist programme where we stand on the sidelines when conditions are calm and enter the market only in times of market disturbances. It rather resembles a two-staged pyramid. At the basis, there is a constant flow of purchases that reaches out to all eligible market segments. In the sovereign space, these purchases are guided by the ECB’s capital key. This is the “stance” element of PEPP. It seeks to create financial conditions that are consistent with our inflation aim. The upper part of the pyramid is its flexibility. This element responds to the challenges posed by the pandemic to market functioning and the smooth transmission of our policy to all parts of the euro area. The first granular breakdown of our PEPP purchases, published last week, highlights this particular aspect of our reaction function. It stresses the three dimensions of flexibility in the PEPP. First, in the sovereign space, monthly purchases in all jurisdictions will exceed the “basis” flow if we observe a general tightening of financial conditions across countries, unusually high volatility or poor liquidity. In this case, we frontload purchases, following the ECB’s capital key. Second, we raise the share of purchases above the capital key in countries facing severe risks of fragmentation.

In the baseline scenario, ECB staff projections predict notable downward pressure on inflation arising from the much larger shortfall in aggregate demand than 1/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  supply. As a result, headline inflation is not anticipated to be back on its pre-COVID-19 path by 2022 in that scenario, and underlying inflation is also expected to remain subdued in the medium term (see right chart on Slide 2). Given the unprecedented impact of the crisis on income and consumption, such disinflationary effects are not surprising. But uncertainty around these forecasts is exceptionally large: while measuring economic slack is already a challenge in normal times, it is currently exacerbated by the highly uncertain effects of the crisis on potential output, both in the short and in the medium to long run. In the short run, potential output is severely affected by disruptions in global value chains and social distancing measures, which constrain the full use of capital. Think of the hairdresser who may only be able to use half of his or her physical capacity. Such effects may partly offset the negative effects of weakening demand on inflation even in the short run. In the medium to long run, the impact of the crisis on potential output, and hence on inflation, will crucially depend on the response of firms and policymakers to the challenges we are currently facing. First, some sectors of the economy may never return to their previous size, requiring a large reallocation of capital and labour, also across borders.
Electronic techniques were used in the 1970s to produce electronic components and equipment. In the 1980s, computer hardware and programmes were developed, along with various services that made it possible to incorporate computers in many fields. The pressure for change has shifted to software and know-how. In the 1990s software became more standardised and attention focused on attempts to create new infrastructure, for instance by extending the internet. The new infrastructure has enabled globalisation to take a large step forward. A good example of a field where the new technology has been utilised for strong growth is the financial sector. No one now dwells on the fact that the financial sector largely stands or falls with the new technology; it has become commonplace. TV satellites and the internet have paved the way for new and better means of communication. That in turn has provided a base for the growth of many new types of services. Many people now use the internet for bank transactions. Buying and selling goods on the internet is still fairly limited but is growing. Today, most people in Sweden have access to news and entertainment from all parts of the world. Firms have had to adapt to new markets and new conditions for distribution. New enterprises and new rules follow in their wake. As the new technology becomes cheaper, it also becomes available for more and more applications. One example is biotechnology, where the conditions for research and product development have changed completely. New companies are now being established.

Some observers draw parallels with earlier revolutions in economic history, for example the introduction of steam-engines in manufacturing in the 18th century and the breakthrough for the combustion engine and electric motors in the late 19th century. A closer look at these two earlier industrial revolutions shows that in Sweden the impact of the steamengine was delayed. Developments here had more to do with the transformation and commercialisation of farming in connection with land reforms. It simply took time to build up the institutional arrangements that made a widespread use of steam-engines possible. Sweden did not begin to participate in the first industrial revolution until the middle of the 19th century, when the construction of railways gave steam locomotives a crucial part to play in the new form of communication. At the time of the second industrial revolution, however, when the conditions for production were changed again by the petrol engine and the electric motor, Sweden was in a better position to reap the benefits. In that the social structure was more suited to adopting and utilising the new technology, the pace of modernisation was faster. Production became increasingly efficient as the industrialised society took shape. Electrification, motor vehicles and aviation all left their mark on developments in much of the 20th century. At the same time, it was probably not the new inventions as such that provided the conditions for the rapid economic growth in the 19th and 20th centuries.
Timescales In preparation for the QIS, we will shortly be releasing an information request to firms which use the MA. We are asking for granular asset data, and asset and liability cashflow data, relating to 4/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  the relevant firms’ Matching Adjustment Portfolios under the existing regime. I’d strongly encourage firms that use the MA to engage with this at an early stage. We intend to release the QIS over the summer and it will be relevant for a broader set of firms – including both life and non-life. It will cover the MA and risk margin as well as elements of the Transitional Measure on Technical Provisions (TMTP). Whilst at the moment we are not expecting to test changes to the Standard Formula, we still encourage Standard Formula firms to participate as they may be impacted by the other changes. Participation is voluntary, but we will be writing to a variety of firms in each sector strongly encouraging them to participate. In addition we will publish the QIS templates on our website so that any firm is able and indeed welcome to participate. We would like a wide range of participation so that we and the government can understand the impact of reforms not just on the industry as a whole, but importantly on sub-sectors. The PRA will set out plans shortly on overall timelines, and how we intend to engage with firms during the QIS.

We do not pursue a zero failure regime and we don’t have aspirations to further strengthen this protection as part of the Solvency II review. To the extent that there might be some wider benefits to reduced levels of protection, we would need to weigh these carefully against the costs to policyholders and the wider economy – especially when considered over the long terms for which many insurance promises persist. In coming to this view, we are particularly mindful of just how important the UK insurance market is, and how large the sector is relative to our economy3. The London Market is competitive, in 2/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  part, precisely because policyholders are confident their claims will be met. And as discussed, the life sector is responsible for paying retirement income to millions. This retirement income underpins a significant amount of spending, and much of it is provided in a way – via annuities – in which the investment and longevity risks are borne by insurers – so the security of that source of income and spending depends on the soundness of the life insurance sector. There is a growing degree of consensus around the world, exemplified by the work of the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS), over the financial standards to which insurance should be held.
The reason for this is that adjustments to the policy rate have large and direct effects on the CPI which are not connected to underlying inflationary pressures and which are also counter-productive. This means, for example, that interest rate cuts, which are intended to bring inflation up, instead further lower CPI inflation over the short term as the costs for mortgages fall. For this reason, the CPIF, i.e. the CPI with a fixed interest rate, has increasingly acted as guidance for monetary policy. But large variations in the CPI in recent years, due to adjustments to the policy rate, have sometimes led to problems in communication. By switching to the CPIF, we are making monetary policy clearer. The target is that the annual change in the CPIF shall be 2 per cent. However, it is not possible for the Riksbank to achieve this target every single month, so, for  * I would like to thank Magnus Jonsson for his help with writing the speech and Goran Katinic for his help with  data and figures. I would also like to thank Carl Andreas Claussen, Charlotta Edler, Cecilia Roos-Isaksson, Martin W. Johansson, Ann-Leena Mikiver, Marianne Nessén, Marianne Sterner, Ingvar Strid, Ulf Söderström, Anders Vredin and Daniel Wallemo for valuable comments and Calum McDonald and Gary Watson for helping to translate the speech into English. 1 [23]  various reasons, inflation will vary around 2 per cent.

The outreach has also been targeted at small and medium sized businesses. This process will also prompt the financial industry to increase innovation to strengthen their competitive position. This can be reinforced by market research to enhance the understanding of customers’ distinct financial needs and their risk tolerance and therefore enable the design of Islamic financial instruments that offer tangible benefits and value to customers. In addition, with increased disclosure and transparency on the manner in which Islamic financial transactions are being conducted and on how Islamic financial contracts are being executed as well as on the risk and return profiles of financial products, this will further strengthen the role of competition. In conclusion, the investment in the future needs to be undertaken by all the relevant entities in the Islamic financial sector - the industry, the regulators, the market participants, the academia and the international community. As a co-ordinated and concerted effort it will be mutually reinforcing in elevating the performance of Islamic finance. While the increasingly more competitive prevailing environment raises the pressures to produce immediate-term results, it is the investment in human capital and in research and development that will secure the long-term sustainability of the industry. It is these investments that will be the defining element of the future development of Islamic finance and its long-term success. BIS Review 47/2005  3
I think that a comparative analysis of some key macroeconomic variables may help us better evaluate Turkey’s current performance. Considered alongside OECD countries and China, Turkey has become one of the two economies that recorded positive growth in 2020. Data on the first half of 2021 showed that growth remained positive. The positive performance of vaccination in Europe has been reflecting on our economy through the tourism and external demand channels. In this context, net exports also continue to contribute positively to growth. High-frequency data also signal a recovery in the labor market on the back of the reopening. While employment in the services sector was on a slower recovery track amid pandemic restrictions, the losses of the pandemic period have been fully compensated for with the recent surge in services employment. Besides, on the back of strong exports, industrial employment has been following a more positive course compared to other subcategories in the recent period. All in all, we see that non-farm employment started to recover first with the help of the industrial sector, and reached pre-pandemic levels in early 2021 despite the limited contribution from the services sector. Finally, we can say that the labor market has largely overcome the effects of the pandemic on the back of the services sector and tourism. Distinguished guests, During the post-pandemic recovery, economic activity started to normalize at a global level.

Both regimes may be prone to fluctuations in interest rates in response to shocks, but with inflation targeting, which requires a flexible exchange rate even if managed to a degree, the central bank has a measure of discretion in the magnitude and timing of its response, whereas, with a fixed rate, defensive reactions must be more immediate and may hence be potentially sharper. Hong Kong context Recent criticisms of Hong Kong's currency board have focused mainly on two aspects - the implications for the competitiveness of Hong Kong vis-a-vis other economies and the problems of living with falling price levels. The remainder of this paper is directed mostly at these issues. Competitiveness Changes in competitiveness are typically measured by comparing movements in some appropriate measure of costs or prices at home and abroad, and adjusting for shifts in exchange rates. The  BIS Review 17/2002  1  1  measure of competitiveness thus produced is commonly referred to as the real exchange rate. A 2 stronger real rate means higher relative prices and therefore implies weaker competitiveness. I detect two common misconceptions about the real exchange rate. Influencing the real rate The first is the belief that the real rate is amenable to control by the central bank or government and that the chosen regime for the nominal exchange rate is therefore an important determinant of the real rate. Let me explain what I believe to be some flaws in this view.
The conclusion of the discussion on risks in the Inflation Report, and which I have only briefly touched on here, is that we saw reason to make an upward adjustment in the main scenario inflation forecast of around a tenth of a percentage point. This does not alter the conclusion that inflation in terms of both CPI and UND1X will be below the target level during the coming two years. During the first year we believe that inflation will be significantly below two per cent. We have also assessed that inflation will be marginally below the target at the end of the two-year period. This is the background to the decision we made yesterday to cut the repo rate by 0.5 percentage points. BIS Review 20/2004  3  Inflation in line with target in 2003 That covers the discussion in the Inflation Report and our interest rate decision. Let me now move on to discuss monetary policy from a retrospective view. We have as usual in connection with the publication of the first Inflation Report of the year produced a background report to facilitate the assessment of monetary policy over the past three years. This report is included in a special box in the report. Measured as an annual average, the inflation rate was very close to the 2 per cent target in 2003. The CPI increased by exactly 2 per cent, while UND1X inflation, which is adjusted for the direct effects of indirect taxes and interest rates, amounted to 2.3 percent.

As yet, there are few signs of a turnaround in the labour market and business tendency surveys indicate that the upturn in the private sector will be relatively weak this year. However, some improvement may be on the way, although it is difficult to determine exactly when the trend will turn. Recently, the number of new job vacancies registered has increased somewhat and the number of redundancy notices has declined. At the same time, the strained local government finances indicate a weak upturn in employment in this sector in the near future. The situation in the labour market has caused us to revise down our assessments of future wage cost increases. This was also included in the picture in February. The central wage agreements signed in the manufacturing and retail trade sectors have confirmed this development. Our new forecasts indicate wage cost increases of 3.5 per cent over the coming two years, which is slightly lower than in December. Last year there were increasing signs of more rapid productivity growth. While employment, measured as the number of hours worked in the business sector, developed weaker than anticipated, growth was largely as expected. This is reflected in more rapid productivity growth. We drew attention to this picture already in December. Since then, these developments have become clearer and been reinforced.
Thus both the fiscal stimulus and the accommodative monetary environment are expected to improve demand conditions in the second half of the year. Malaysia also has diverse trading partners which contributes towards mitigating the full impact of the global slowdown on our domestic economy. Businesses in Malaysia have over the years continued to build trade and investment linkages with other emerging countries especially in Asia . Adequate access to financing is therefore vital not only for supporting domestic demand but also to ensure that Malaysian businesses are able to take advantage of the opportunities in the regional and global economy. BIS Review 47/2009  1  The strong domestic banking system, with its ample liquidity, has the potential capacity to provide the access to financing. Some SMEs however are experiencing stress from the current more difficult environment. Several preemptive measures have therefore been introduced to enhance the prospect for access to financing. The SME Assistance Guarantee Scheme that was launched on 3 February 2009 to provide SMEs with an 80% guarantee cover will enhance access to financing in addition to keeping the cost of financing low. As at 5 April 2009, more than 880 applicants have successfully obtained financing through this scheme and more than 790 applicants are still being evaluated. Two additional schemes, the Working Capital Guarantee Scheme and the Industry Restructuring Financing Guarantee Scheme, has been recently launched to enhance access to financing for working capital and to support long-term investments that will increase productivity and that will generate high value-added activities.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Developing a strong and dynamic SME sector Keynote address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Launch of SME Credit Bureau, Kuala Lumpur, 16 April 2009. *  *  *  Introduction It is my pleasure to be here this morning to speak at the launch of the SME Credit Bureau. The development of a strong and dynamic SME sector is a priority on our national agenda to promote a vibrant and active SME sector that will contribute towards generating a sustainable and balanced economic growth. Malaysia has therefore adopted an aggressive SME development programme to strengthen the viability and capacity of the SMEs to increase their contribution to high quality growth of the economy. Over the recent five years, the SMEs contribution to economic growth has increased. Indeed, the SME contribution to economic growth in the manufacturing sector has increased from 6% of real gross domestic product in 2001 to 8.4% in 2005. The overall SME contribution to the gross domestic product has increased to 32% while 19% of total exports are by SMEs. Experience has shown in several of the developed countries, that SMEs contribute to at least half of the gross domestic product. Benchmarked against this, there is clearly a significant potential for SMEs in Malaysia to increase their contribution to the economy. Economic outlook and policy response The year 2009 is likely to be a difficult year for businesses.
This difference may explain why, especially in cyclical slowdown phases, monetary policy action in the euro area tends to be less aggressive than it is in the United States. In the United States, on the other hand, analysis seems to show that demand shocks tend to prevail, which puts pressure on inflation and on economic activity simultaneously. Supply shocks like those related to productivity tend to have a considerable impact on demand if agents expect them to have an impact on permanent income, affecting consumption. For example, the increase in productivity in the second half of the 1990s led to strong growth in consumption in the United States, financed by debt. In this context, the monetary policy reaction can be more decisive, and transmitted through relatively more marked and more frequent official rate adjustments. This is true in phases both of economic growth and of economic slowdown. In conclusion, if Europe’s economy and the US economy suffer shocks of a different nature, it is only natural that the responses should be partly different. Some studies suggest that the role of shocks is the predominant factor in explaining the differences in conduct between the 3 ECB and the Federal Reserve. 2.2. Economic structure: the propagation of shocks  Now let us move on to the possible differences in the two economies’ structures.

William C Dudley: Panel remarks at the Bank for International Settlements' Annual General Meeting Panel remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Bank for International Settlements' Annual General Meeting, Basel, 25 June 2017. * * * John Clark, Gerard Dages, Linda Goldberg, Eric LeSueur, Jonathan McCarthy, and Joseph Tracy assisted in preparing these remarks. Let me start by thanking Jens Weidmann and the Bank for International Settlements for the opportunity to respond and comment on Professor Hélène Rey’s thoughtful remarks and on the issue of international spillovers associated with U.S. monetary policy. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System.1 As is characteristic of her work, what Hélène has to say is well-argued and provocative. It is also very relevant to the conduct of monetary policy and the functioning of the international monetary system. I mostly agree with the major points she makes. First, I wholeheartedly agree with her on the hazards of financial booms. Rapid increases in credit and capital flows, asset prices, and leverage can lead to potentially severe corrections that can impose great stress on financial systems. As we have seen repeatedly, this stress can impair the ability of the financial system to perform well in intermediating credit between savers and borrowers, and in helping households and businesses manage their financial risks.