samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Chart 6: UK self-employment Per cent of total employment 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1855  1870  1885  1900  1915  1930  1945  1960  1975  1990  2005  Sources: ONS, Thomas and Dimsdale (2017) and Bank of England calculations. 19  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  19  Chart 7: ‘Zero hours’ contracts  Per cent of employment  3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0  2000 Q4 2002 Q4 2004 Q4 2006 Q4 2008 Q4 2010 Q4 2012 Q4 2014 Q4 2016 Q4 Sources: ONS Labour Force Survey and Bank of England calculations. Chart 8: Frequency of terms in job postings  Sources: Reed and Bank of England calculations. Notes: Chart shows the share of job postings in a data set of job vacancies posted online in the UK which include the terms ‘self-employed’, ‘flexible hours’ and ‘contractor’. 20  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  20  Chart 9: Distribution of offered wage by occupation, with and without the term ‘self-employment’ in the job advert  Sources: Reed and Bank of England calculations. Notes: ‘SOC code’ refers to standard occupational classification code. The area labelled ‘True’ shows the distribution of offered wages for job adverts which include the term ‘self-employment’, and the area labelled ‘False’ shows the distribution for adverts which do not. The data are drawn from a cross-section of online job vacancies. Distributions are constructed using data covering the period 2008-2016.

If so, that could herald the beginning of the end of the protracted post-crisis super-cycle of weak investment. At a regional level, the global recovery appears to have a broad base across the world. Most regions of the world have seen growth upgrades over the past six months. Currently, countries representing around 80% 12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  12  of global output are expected to be growing above-trend, meaning the global output gap is shrinking. The simultaneity of that uptick in regional growth should give it greater momentum, given the increased importance these days of cross-border spillovers, in trade and finance, and integrated global supply chains. A second reason for greater resilience in world growth since the start of the year is reduced political and policy uncertainty. For anyone who has lived through the UK’s political undulations of the past few weeks, or who is consuming a daily diet of world news, blogs and tweets, that may sound like an odd statement. But, viewed in the round, political and policy risks in a number of countries have eased significantly since the start of the year. At the start of the year, there was widespread media and market concern about changes to economic, trade and foreign policy in the US. By and large, the worst of these fears have failed to materialise. At the start of the year, there were fears of a populist surge through Europe.
We expect the recovery of domestic demand to gain more traction going forward, especially in the second half of this year. In light of these recent events, our latest growth projection for this year has been revised upward to 1.5 percent. While this figure may be much lower than long-term potential growth of around 4 to 5 percent, it is chiefly dragged down by the first-quarter contraction – bygones if you like. From this quarter onwards, we anticipate a clear pickup in growth and a V-shaped recovery. Many independent forecasters are currently holding a similar view, and most have revised up their growth projections after the political turning point in May. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  This brighter economic outlook is not without risks, however. Exports of goods in particular have underperformed thus far this year, despite their insulation from domestic political turmoil. A number of factors are at play, some temporary, others more secular. Weaker economic growth in regional trading partners, including China and ASEAN, has been one cyclical hindrance. Global trade also appears to be lagging global growth, limiting scope for emerging economies like Thailand to leverage on advanced economies’ recovery. More deep-rooted structural issues at home may also be responsible, as segments of the manufacturing sector are not integrated into the modern global supply chain. For these reasons, exports may play a less active role in its contribution to growth this year. On the financial stability front, we remain cautious but optimistic.

Domestically, the prolonged period of economic slowdown has subjected indebted households and smaller businesses to financial strains. Loan quality for weaker borrowers has deteriorated somewhat as a result. The good news is that these risks have been confined to specific sectors, and the banking system remains strong and has weathered the slowdown very well, owing to their prudent risk management policies. Externally, we also cannot rule out further episodes of volatile capital flows owing to shifts in monetary policy abroad. Our economy has proven resilient to such shocks in the recent past, thanks to strong macroeconomic fundamentals and robust policy framework. We will closely monitor the adjustment process to ensure that risks to financial stability continue to be contained. To summarize, the economy seems to be at an inflection point. The outlook for growth has improved following the political event in May. But a new set of challenges has also emerged. Now that political uncertainties have waned, what should be the priorities for public policy? What are key areas of needed “economic reform”, and what should such agenda entail? This brings me to the second topic of my talk, that of challenges to public policy management during the current period of transition. Challenges to public policy management The agenda for economic reform under discussion today is wide-ranging and may at times seem confusing to the public. To organize one’s thoughts, it might be helpful to revisit the basic role of government in a modern economy.
I would not deny that this is a convenient short-term solution. But since Fintech and Green Finance are longer term trends, I firmly believe that the most effective solution is to nurture more home-grown talent. That’s why the HKMA is currently working on two fronts. On the one hand, we are working hard to upskill existing practitioners to ensure that they keep pace with developments of the industry. On the other hand, we are actively reaching out to universities and secondary schools, seeking to attract more new blood for the industry and better prepare those interested young talent for a long-term banking career. 18. So let’s talk about existing practitioners. Our Enhanced Competency Framework (in short, ECF) comes in handy here. The ECF has been playing a key role in enhancing the competency level of our banking practitioners, through providing systematic training as well as industry-recognised qualifications. To date, more than 16,000 practitioners have obtained certifications in various professional areas under the ECF. At the end of last year, we added a new “Fintech” module into the ECF family. And we are now working hard on other new modules covering “Compliance” and “Green and Sustainable Finance”. I’m sure the speakers in the last panel today will share more insights about the changing roles and skills required of compliance officers in the face of the fast changing operating environment. 19. Now, making available systematic training programmes for practitioners is one thing. But getting them to actually take those training will depend on many factors.

The third segment is better detection of economy sensitivity to shocks, which is achieved by establishing sector accounts, and in their frames financial accounts, which will disclose the links between all sectors in an economy, and therefore, the possibilities for shock spillover from one sector to another. In 2017, for the first time, the National Bank prepared financial accounts for all sectors of the economy, which were submitted to Eurostat in an experimental format. The fourth segment is the improvement of the statistical communication process. In this context, on a regular basis, we are making efforts to improve communication with the public, also by conducting surveys for the satisfaction of the reporters and users, creating the possibility for direct electronic communication on all issues related to statistics and undertaking financial education activities. In 2016, we started with a regular publication of press releases on statistics, as well as a project, which is in the final phase, for establishing a statistical internet portal for external data users. In doing so, in the basis of all these new statistical requirements, lies the need for providing granular, rather than aggregate data. The crisis has not called into question the traditional aggregate economic statistics, but has shown that it is not enough.
[8] See Monetary Policy Report 3/22 [9] The model is a smaller version of our macroeconomic model NEMO. [10] The increase in the real interest rate follows from the Taylor principle, where the nominal interest rate should rise more over time than the rise in inflation. In most standard monetary policy models, the Taylor principle must be satisfied to keep inflation stable. [11] TANK is an acronym for “Two-Agent New Keynesian”. See, eg, Galí et al (2007). [12] This condition is entered as a residual term in our macroeconomic model NEMO to correct for variables that are not covered in the model. [13] Sims (2003). For an overview of the literature on rational inattention, see Maćkowiak et al (2021), “Rational Inattention: A Review”, ECB Working Paper 2570. [14] The response in the chart is comparable to the response in earlier model exercises even if we here look at a somewhat different, simple model. For example, this is a model for a closed economy, while the mini-NEMO model in the previous exercise is a model for a small open economy. [15] The model solves this by a Markovian switching mechanism where inflation expectations switch between two regimes: one with anchored inflation expectations and the other with backward-looking expectations. The probability of switching between the two is endogenous and depends on the level of inflation.

in  ad Abro  Sources : Statistics Norway and the Norwegian Central Securities Deposit SG Kommunalbanken, 30.august 2002  The largest holders of Norwegian bonds are insurance companies, but the government, private companies and foreign investors also account for a large share of bond holdings. The largest issuers are the government and financial institutions. Kommunalbanken is also a fairly large issuer in the Norwegian bond market. At the end of 2001, the Bank’s total bond and commercial paper debt came to about NOK 26 billion. This accounted for a good 6 per cent of total outstanding bond and short-term debt issues in Norway at the end of last year. There are historical reasons for the thin securities market in Norway. From the post-war period and up to the beginning of the 1980s, the Norwegian bond market was subject to direct regulation. It was only in the late 1980s that the market for bonds and short-term debt was liberalised and it is now part of the international market. BIS Review 48/2002  5  Outstanding holdings of domestic debt securities issued by non-financial enterprises.
In fact, the zero lower bound that was once a theoretical constraint has now been the norm for the last 8 years. Unconventional policy measures, such as quantitative easing were adopted. Next came the introduction of the negative interest rate policy, particularly in the advanced economies. First adopted by the Danish National Bank in 2012, five other central banks have now lowered their key policy rates to negative territory. The outcomes of these unprecedented policy measures remain uncertain, with possibility of unintended consequences and the emergence of yet more risks. Fiscal and monetary policy, two of the most important macroeconomic policy tools, are reaching a point where they have very limited room to influence the desired growth and employment outcomes. This raises a few questions – have we reached a point where macro economy becomes a dismal science? Have we reached a macro-policy trap? What have we missed in the design of these policy tools? These are very important questions. They warrant a deep rethinking of the underlying basis of the discipline, and a re-examination of the many principles that we have been relying on all these while. To apply the same solution over and over again is certainly not a viable option. The international monetary system fosters imbalances and volatility of capital flows and exchange rates Since the departure from the Bretton Woods system, the international monetary system has evolved to reflect on-going changes in global economic developments and economic thoughts.

But beneath this sense of calmness is a tense undercurrent. There is an underlying anxiety that prevails beyond the realm of economics, for example in relation to issues of international security, environmental change, and the global spread of disease. Despite the tremendous progress that has been achieved in many of these areas through international treaties and institutional efforts globally, anxieties remain. Extreme views are becoming more prevalent in both side of the aisle, and manifests in the form of backlash against conventional wisdom, and the establishments. We ought to be circumspect in expressing our views. As individuals and institutions that have influence to mould public thought and perception, we have the added 4/8  BIS Central Banker's Speeches  responsibility to be balanced. We should not be too eager to discard all wisdom that have been carefully amassed over many years but at the same willing to adapt to new thinking, new circumstances and new possibilities. As policy-makers and economists, these contemporary issues confronting the field of economics are indeed reinvigorating. New rules are being made. Old rules revisited. The contradictory forces that I mentioned earlier, are causing great policy tensions. The policies that have been implemented and experimented in recent years by policy-makers across the world might themselves appear in contradictions. And the fact that the performance so far has been mixed does not invoke confidence in some of the policy prescriptions.
The return of HICP inflation to moderate positive rates is expected within the coming months. At the same time, the latest information supports our view that there are increasing signs of stabilisation in economic activity in the euro area and elsewhere. This is consistent with the expectation that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end and is now followed by a period of stabilisation and very gradual recovery. Available indicators of inflation expectations over the medium to longer term remain firmly anchored in line with the Governing Council’s aim of keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. The outcome of the monetary analysis confirms the assessment of low inflationary pressure over the medium term, as money and credit expansion continues to decelerate. Against this background, we expect price stability to be maintained over the medium term, thereby continuing to support the purchasing power of euro area households. Let me now explain our assessment in further detail, starting with the economic analysis. Following the strong negative growth rates observed around the turn of the year, according to Eurostat’s first estimate, economic activity in the euro area declined only slightly in the second quarter of 2009, contracting by 0.1% compared with the previous quarter. Survey indicators for the third quarter of 2009 support the view that the euro area economy is stabilising further.

There are those who claim that natural resources are bad for a country’s development. They find that the abundance of natural resources has been associated with a poor growth performance. This finding leads them to the conclusion – a wrong one in my view – that natural resources are hazardous to a country’s development. As I will be asserting over this presentation, natural resources are a blessing, but their abundance in a scenario of institutional and economic weakness may turn it into a curse. I will also comment that, in the case of Chile, solid bases have been in place to take advantage of the copper industry, very different from what occurred with nitrate in the early twentieth century. I will begin with a review of the international evidence on the relationship between natural resources and growth, to then focus on Chile’s specific case and the relationship between abundance in our mining resources and our development. Then I will talk briefly about the current economic scenario and how copper price fluctuations are no longer a source of instability, as used to be the case in the past or still is in some large commodity exporters. This is attributed to the significant advances we have made in our foreign exchange, fiscal, and monetary policies. The importance of this cannot be overemphasized, because said progress in macroeconomic policies has allowed us to implement unprecedented expansionary policies that should help Chile to overcome successfully the international crisis that hit the world at large in recent months.
Previously the uncertainty in the credit markets around the world in particular has appeared to be an obstacle to economic recovery. But now there are many indications that we are approaching a more normal situation and that the widespread uncertainty and mistrust during the crisis has declined. Many measures taken by central banks and other authorities to restore confidence in the financial markets and to stimulate the economy are still in place. Naturally, this makes it difficult to say how the situation would look without this support. But some measures have already disappeared. This is in itself a sign of greater stability. In Sweden, for instance, measures such as the loans to the banks in US dollars and the loans with a maturity of 12 months at a variable interest rate have more or less phased themselves out. The demand for the measures, and in other words the need for them, has quite simply faded. We can also note that the price of risk has fallen, for instance, on the interbank market where the banks are lending to and borrowing from one another, and on other credit markets. This can also be seen in a measure called the TED spread, which I have also shown earlier to the Committee on Finance (Figure 2). The TED spread is the difference between an interest rate in the interbank market and a government bond rate, both with three-month maturities. The measure provides an indication of the confidence between the banks.

This is mainly because households’ interest expenditure will stop falling and then rise as the repo rate is raised. BIS Review 25/2010  9  Figure 9 Inflation measured as the CPI and the CPIF Annual percentage change  Source: Statistics Sweden  From crisis interest rate to monetary policy in an economic downturn The Executive Board of the Riksbank decided at the latest monetary policy meeting to hold the repo rate unchanged at 0.25 per cent to attain the inflation target of 2 per cent and to give sufficient support to the economic recovery. We are expecting to begin raising the repo rate again in the summer or in early autumn 2010 (Figure 10). This is slightly earlier than in our last forecast, which is because of the two components I mentioned. The financial markets have become increasingly stable and statistics on economic activity – such as slightly higher growth abroad, stronger employment and higher inflation – have gradually confirmed the picture of the recovery being on firmer ground. Figure 10 From crisis interest rate to monetary policy in a recession Per cent  Source: The Riksbank  10  BIS Review 25/2010  At the same time, we are now assuming that the increases in the repo rate can be made more gradually. This means that the forecast for the repo rate in the longer term is marginally lower than before, just under 4 per cent at the beginning of 2013. But, of course, forecasts so far ahead are very uncertain.
Inflation expectations themselves have been remarkably stable, including during the recent period when oil prices jumped to levels no one could have expected only a year ago. This, by itself, illustrates the credibility achieved by the Eurosystem, after only six years of existence. Second, European households and companies are reaping the benefits of that credibility. Long term interest rates stand at an historically low level, around 100 basis points below the level in the United States. So, even after the recent increases in short term rates, monetary and financial conditions remain extremely favourable for investment and growth. And indeed, we might be witnessing in Europe the start of period of sustained and stable growth, at least if current projections and surveys prove to be right in the coming months. A third benefit of the Euro is the boost it gives to financial integration in Europe. In many segments, European financial markets have reached the depth and liquidity which, up to now, were the preserve of dollar markets. This stimulates productive investment, helps in restructuring (as witnessed by the current wave of M&As) and, more generally, allows a better allocation of savings and sharing of risks. As a consequence, the euro is becoming extremely attractive, as a vehicle, a transaction, an investment and a reserve currency. As you may know, as central bankers, we remain neutral as far as the internationalisation of the euro is concerned. We are neither encouraging, nor discouraging the process.

On the other side, Bank of Albania will encourage and support without any hesitation the further development and consolidation of the banking system in particular, and of the financial sector in general. We are deeply committed to undertake the necessary steps to implement all the recommendations given by FSAP. For this purpose, we are ready to offer all our human capacities to contribute in this direction. I use this opportunity to appeal on taking immediate actions towards redesigning the licensing and supervisory process of the other parts of the financial sector. Bank of Albania will continue to pursue a prudential policy in performing its function as a licensing authority of financial entities that are involved in the crediting activities. In the spirit of what I have stated above, I use the opportunity to express our commitment to involve in our supervisory structure all those credit companies or institutions, which one way or another mobilise the population’s funds or manage public funds in the crediting process. Assessing the information issue as a critical element in facilitating the lending activity, I would like to point out that Bank of Albania has already included the project of establishing the credit register in its immediate plans and we are strongly committed to implement it as soon as possible. This register shall be under administration of Bank of Albania and the participation of other member banks of the system will be compulsory.