samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The HKMA will continue to explore ways of expanding its application in two areas, namely:  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  I.  Cross-border transactions – we will explore with the Guangzhou and Shenzhen branches of The People’s Bank of China, and the Monetary Authority of Macao with a view to promoting the use and clearing of cross-border e-Cheques. II. Development of e-commerce – we will explore with the banking industry the use of eCheques in supporting e-commerce portals. While offering an additional option of payment for online shoppers, e-Cheques can also increase the efficiency of ecommerce operations. Acknowledgments 5. The launch of the e-Cheque reflects the continuous effort of banks in Hong Kong to provide a wide range of payment services. It also signifies the HKMA’s commitment in promoting the efficiency and modernisation of Hong Kong's financial infrastructure. Besides, the smooth development and launch of the e-Cheque has benefited immensely from the great support of relevant government departments. I.  Firstly, amendments to the Electronic Transactions Ordinance were finalised by the Office of the Government Chief Information Officer in early 2015, giving electronic cheques the same legal status as physical cheques. The Pay e-Cheque portal was also launched on 7 December, which allows the public to make payments of government bills and fees with e-Cheques. II.

Just one year after the company started operating its direct cargo trains linking China and Europe, it made the bold decision to allow other producers on-board, giving up what was seen as a significant competitive advantage at the time. But the results were astonishing. By doing so, it was able to increase the frequency of departures which allowed it to move its products more quickly to Europe. Today, HP’s Europe-bound trains depart daily from China, with the higher frequency working to its own advantage. The notion of co-opetition is not entirely foreign to the world of insurance. Insurance marketplaces such as Lloyd’s of London have long operated arrangements that deliver advantages from pooling risks and information. In Malaysia, market mechanisms exist to move reinsurance documentation more efficiently between market participants, and to share information on fraud. The emergence of new technologies will take this further. Open application programming interfaces, or APIs, enable insurers to provide and obtain access to information that will significantly alter the operational process of insurers. But access to information would require a network of service providers who are willing to share data and information, without giving away one’s competitive edge. Investments in infrastructure, especially in ICT is very expensive. By pooling funds to build shared infrastructure, the burden becomes more manageable. More investments in IT will enable new possibilities to expand insurance reach, improve efficiency and increase effectiveness. Not long ago, the natural instinct would be to resist these forces of change.
During the spring this year, however, there were signals indicating that a slowdown was on the way. Moreover, in June growth data were released for the first quarter, which were weaker than expected by all economic forecasters. That prompted the Riksbank to revise down its growth forecast for 2005, as well as our outlook for future cost pressures. But we nevertheless stuck to our assessment that most factors – not least the expansionary economic policy – pointed to comparatively firm growth in the period ahead. 5/7  That now seems to have been a correct assessment. The statistics for the first quarter were revised up over the summer and thus were not quite as weak as they first appeared. During the second quarter GDP growth also rose, according to the data we now have. The performance is positive as regards both domestic demand – consumption and investment – and exports. Looking ahead, we expect that domestic demand will be a more important driving force than it has been so far in the cyclical upswing. However, demand is likely to begin to slacken by degrees as a result of ordinary mechanisms that dampen economic activity. One such mechanism is that interest rates rise as resource utilisation and cost pressures pick up. Previously, the forecasts in our main scenario have been produced on the basis of the assumption that the repo rate is constant during the forecast period.

But nothing is certain when it comes to economic activity. One obvious source of uncertainty is the oil price, which has turned out much higher than we anticipated as late as in June. Forward prices, which reflect expectations of future oil prices, have also risen and judging by these, expectations in general seem to be set on a slowly falling, but nevertheless still high, oil price. Even though the oil price has dropped back recently we have revised up our forecast for the coming years. It is hard to judge what effects the high oil price will have on growth and inflation. Among other things, this depends on whether the high price reflects mounting demand or whether it has been caused by supply shocks. Pointing to the first explanation is the fact that the price rise in recent years has gone hand in hand with an increase in output. A dampening factor is that most industrialised countries are considerably less dependent on oil than they were a couple of decades ago. Against that background, we estimate in our assessment that the high oil prices will have limited effects on economic activity. But, of course, it is not possible to rule out either higher inflation or a more negative impact on demand. Signs of the former can be seen in the United States. Another source of uncertainty is the large savings imbalances around the world and how a correction might come about. Strong domestic demand in Sweden In Sweden, too, economic growth was strong last year.
I will conclude my speech by addressing the thorny question of the choice of a monetary policy regime. After all, is it worthwhile for a country in the vicinity of a large monetary zone the euro zone or the dollar zone - to try to conduct an autonomous monetary policy? Switzerland’s tradition of financial stability Many people outside Switzerland think that financial stability should be added to the list of Swiss specialties like chocolate, watches and banks. Indeed, the fact that Switzerland is the only country that has been able to keep unchanged its set of coins in circulation since the franc was created in 1850 speaks for itself. Even more spectacular is the position of the Swiss franc, which has retained its international purchasing power over time. The Swiss franc has been devalued only once, in 1936, during the Great Depression, following the devaluation of all major currencies. Financial stability has contributed to shape Switzerland’s business environment and, to a certain extent, explains some of the typical features of the Swiss economy. For example, with about 32% of GDP, the Swiss saving rate is among the highest in the world. Some of these savings are channelled abroad via our banking system, and their proceeds guarantee us a very strong balance of payments position. As a matter of fact, Switzerland’s current account is almost endemically positive.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: New opportunities for growth and development in Islamic financial markets Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the official ceremony for the completion of the Share Subscription Agreement between BIMB Holdings Berhad, Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad, Dubai Financial LLC & Lembaga Tabung Haji, Kuala Lumpur, 16 October 2006. *  *  *  This occasion marks the successful completion of the share subscription agreement between BIMB Holdings Berhad, Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad, Dubai Financial Limited Liability Company (LLC) and Lembaga Tabung Haji. It also sets a new chapter in Bank Islam's drive to chart its future direction in meeting new challenges and in exploiting the new opportunities for growth and development in the Islamic financial markets, both in the domestic and global market place. The participation of such key foreign and local institutions in the new share issuance by Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad signifies an important turning point in the history of Bank Islam which has been the pioneer Islamic bank in Malaysia. The partnership between BIMB Holdings Berhad, Dubai Financial LLC and Lembaga Tabung Haji is significant in several important ways. Firstly, it reflects the confidence and trust that international and domestic investors have in the investment and business climate in Malaysia, and in the Malaysian Islamic financial sector in particular.
The-not-so-distant past has taught us that structural overreliance on real estate poses considerable economic pain in a downturn. Indeed, despite a turnaround in the real estate market since 2014, some banks have not yet fully recovered from past overexposure to this sector. While households’ balance sheets remained broadly sound, one also cannot overlook their increasing exposure to this sector. This, in turn, is being reflected in growing concentration in the banks’ loan portfolios. The Central Bank of Malta, in consultation with the MFSA through the Joint Financial Stability Board, is taking pro-active steps by introducing borrower-based measures to increase the resilience of both banks and borrowers to such potential threats. Undoubtedly, from a supervisory perspective, the past two years have been very challenging. Two banks had their licence withdrawn, while another was put under the administration of a competent person. Despite the negativity of such developments, these are in themselves indicative of the fact that Maltese Authorities are actively taking the right measures to protect the sector from inappropriate behaviour. We must constantly bear in mind that from a reputational point of view we are only as strong as our weakest link and that the externalities that each institution transmits to the system, be it big or small, in the periphery or at the core, is always material in a small financial centre such as Malta. Furthermore, such negative externalities may also impact the use of  infrastructural gateways that service the industry, without which, the entire financial sector would be isolated.

The Government’s efforts need to be complemented with a better utilisation of savings accumulated by the private sector. The Malta Development Bank can help in this regard, by identifying gaps in the financing of viable projects and partnering with financial intermediaries and other stakeholders to develop financial instruments that can finance them. Apart from infrastructure bottlenecks, international institutions that monitor the business environment flag other areas that warrant immediate attention. While we have significant  reservations on a number of methodological aspects underlying such surveys, we also share the view that in some areas we do need to step up our efforts very considerably. This is notably the case as regards the efficiency of court proceedings. Although the time it takes to resolve court cases has more or less halved since 2010, it is still among the longest in the European Union. Other challenges we need to address concern the length of procedures to set up a business, the low educational attainment level relative to our peers and a limited capacity to innovate. These are essential elements that support investment and productivity. The development of an intelligent online business portal which ties all Government business-related services into a one solid platform should put businesses in a better position to do business. The new legislation in the area of digital innovation provides the legal framework for business to embrace disruptive technologies.
Nevertheless, it is not desirable, even for a central bank, to experience a long period of negative equity as this could generate doubts about its credibility. 2 Switzerland: a very special case Although the recent crises have been global in nature, every country has had to define policy in response to the specific circumstances that affect it. The Swiss case is very special as our country still has the leeway to undertake fiscal manoeuvres. Instead, we are confronted by another major challenge, the exceptional power of our currency. As we all know, the increased uncertainty and extreme risk aversion, which arose as a result, drove the Swiss  2  Cf. Jordan (2011) for more details on this topic. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  franc to an all-time high in early August of 2011, posing a threat to the economy and carrying the risk of severe deflationary developments. As I already mentioned, fiscal policy remained a conceivable means of addressing this problem as our country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 40% and its public sector budget has been in surplus for the last six years. It was not, however, as the massively overvalued Swiss franc first threatened demand for Swiss exports and Switzerland is, of course, not in a position to stimulate the entire world economy. In this particular case, it was inappropriate to resort to fiscal policy. It was therefore up to the SNB to take action. It implemented measures aimed at a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc.

After provoking an exceptional increase in liquidity in August, on 6 September 2011 the SNB announced that it would no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below CHF 1.20. This measure remains the focal point of Swiss monetary policy. In the current global context, Switzerland’s economic situation does not justify any strengthening of monetary conditions and this should remain the case for the foreseeable future. The SNB continues to enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and remains prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities for this purpose. From a conceptual perspective, the minimum exchange rate is not a quantitative easing measure and most of my generic comments do not strictly apply to the Swiss case. Nevertheless, the risks associated with this measure do, to a certain extent, resemble those I just described. The first of these risks is that the minimum exchange rate may superficially seem like a simple or straight-forward measure, which may in turn give the impression that monetary policy is a catch-all problem-solver, i.e. that it is almighty. This is clearly not the case. Monetary policy has neither the capacity nor the mandate to protect the Swiss economy from all the shocks to which it is subjected. The aim of the minimum exchange rate is to avert the worst possible developments in zero interest rate environment. It is not a response to each and every challenge with which the Swiss economy is faced, nor can it be implemented at any desired level, free of any risk.
On the other hand, the slow decline in domestic consumption could result in a more complex inflationary dynamic. 2  As we noted in our statement after yesterday's Meeting, we believe that the MPR will need to be maintained at 11.25 percent until the state of the macroeconomy signals that the process of inflation convergence to the 3% target has been consolidated. According to the central scenario of the MP Report, which I will present to you shortly, this will take longer than we anticipated in December. Inflation has been high for a long time now, which increases the risks of scenarios where it continues to push its decline back. The Central Bank will not relent in its effort to bring it to target and we will act flexibly in case any of the internal or external risks materializes and macroeconomic conditions so require. Let me now walk you through the contents of the Report. Macroeconomic scenario and projections As I just said, annual inflation is stuck at very high levels. Last February, the annual variation of the CPI stood at 11.9 percent, a figure that, while down from its peak in the third quarter of 2022, is still well above the target defined by the Bank. February’s monthly variation was negative —at 0.1 percent— for the first time in several quarters. However, it responded mainly to a drop in volatile prices. As a matter of fact, the core component of the CPI posted a considerable rise in that month (+0.7 percent) (figure 1).

For 2024, the growth range is reduced by an equivalent magnitude, between 1 and 2% (between 2 and 3% in December). By 2025, the economy is projected to grow between 2 and 3% annually (table 2). We project that private consumption will continue to adjust in the coming period. Compared to December, this part of spending will fall less sharply in 2023 and rise more moderately in 2024. This projection assumes greater slack in the labor market, consistent with the expected 6  performance of the economy. It also considers greater uncertainty due to the external situation and that the local monetary policy will remain contractionary for a longer period of time. Access to credit will imply a more restricted consumption than in previous quarters, in line with the financial burden and delinquency of households that have increased rapidly in recent quarters, especially among lower-income households. All in a context of tighter international financial conditions. Our March 2023 Bank Lending Survey already reports a perception of lower demand for consumer credit and tighter lending standards (figure 13). Investment will continue to perform poorly this year and next. This assessment assumes a more deteriorated external scenario, greater global uncertainty and financial conditions that will remain constrained. Survey information —prior to the turmoil in the external banking sector— showed low levels of investment planned for the coming quarters (figure 14). The current account deficit will continue to tighten, to values in the order of 4% of GDP by the end of this year.
5  Bloom (2009) presents evidence where the use of this indicator helps to understand the US economic cycle, precisely because firms temporarily put their decisions on hold regarding investment and new hirings. BIS Review 76/2009  5  At the world level, the situation wasn’t so different. Expectations of both individuals and firms suffered a severe decline (Figure 10). Stock prices around the world dropped dramatically, reflecting the worsened expectations (Figure 11). The prices of commodities also fell because of the reduction in demand expected for the future. The exception was gold, commonly used as a store of value at times when perceived risks increase (Figure 12). The drop in demand was particularly steep in the manufacturing sector. This explains the severity of the corrections to growth forecasts in countries that export manufactured products such as Japan and Germany and the recently industrialized Asian economies, among others. These countries are expected to experience an average fall in GDP of around 5 percent during this year. The main effect of the reduction in world demand on the Chilean economy has been the drop in the prices of our exports, and those of many other countries. This pulled down the terms of trade and debilitated the national income prospects. However, as I have said a number of times before, the impact of reduced demand is milder in countries that export natural resource related goods, like Chile.

.” and affording “the means of discounting commercial paper.” Decision-making authority was vested in an institution structured to bring a diversity of largely independent perspectives to the table, for many of the same reasons that most governments vest monetary policy authority today with committees rather than individuals. The Federal Reserve was set up with a balance of public and private perspectives, drawn from across the country – a structure designed to avoid concentrating too much power in Washington, and also to provide a counterweight to New York. This body was comprised of a group of seven governors appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate – five governors and the Secretary of the Treasury, the Comptroller of the Currency – and the heads (then called Governors) of 12 reserve banks. The terms of the Washington-based “Board of Governors” were long and staggered, giving them an extended horizon for policy making more  consistent with the time frame in which monetary policy works and with the long-term interests of the nation than might be shaped by the electoral calendar. Reserve Bank presidents were appointed by their boards of directors. The Reserve Banks, spread across the country, were established as individual corporate entities, owned by banks, with individual boards of directors, a majority of which were elected by the bank shareholders.
It ceased publication of Monthly Statistics, which had appeared since 1974, and launched the quarterly Monetary Bulletin which provides a much better forum than earlier publications for presenting in-depth explanations of the Bank’s assessment of the economic and monetary situation and outlook, its measures in domestic markets and its policies. Furthermore, the new bulletin created an opportunity to present other material which directly or indirectly concerns the Bank’s policy. It was also decided that the bank’s quarterly inflation forecast would be published in Monetary Bulletin. Thus Monetary Bulletin can be described as the main platform today for the Central Bank’s accountability towards the Government and general public. 2  BIS Review 95/2001  New Central Bank Act The most important milestone in the changes affecting the Central Bank, however, was reached this year with new legislation passed by parliament. A committee appointed by the Prime Minister at the end of last year submitted its proposals for a draft Central Bank Act in March. The bill was presented to parliament in the beginning of April and such a broad consensus was reached that it was passed with the unanimous votes of all 56 members of parliament who attended the final vote. The new Central Bank Act is closely modelled on the legislative framework that had been created for central banks in other countries in recent years, including the EMU. A simple target was set for the Central Bank of Iceland, i.e.

To link back to a part of the reasoning above, it could be said that the new analysis has its starting point in the financial markets not being as ‘frictionless’ as the earlier models assumed. 11  New and old tools can be combined, depending on the situation The general level of interest rates in the world has fallen in recent decades, policy rates have fallen to zero or thereabout and new versions of old tools such as asset purchases have had to be used to provide monetary policy stimulation. But shocks in the transmission mechanism have also justified the emergence of new monetary policy tools. To an increased extent, companies are obtaining funding directly on the market, and not just via loans from the banks. This is the reason that central banks have gone in and purchased corporate bonds to thereby support lending in the economy and maintain a functioning transmission mechanism. The policy rate will probably be in focus again, once times and the financial conditions have normalised. The level of the policy rate specifies a kind of foundation for short-term risk-free interest rates, as well as other interest rates in the economy. But how policy rate changes spread to interest rates with longer maturities, non risk-free interest rates and the interest rates faced by companies and households can vary, depending on the situation in the economy, conditions on the financial markets and the structure of the financial sector.