samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
To this effect, Europe-wide measures are crucial, even if they do not take the most appropriate form for optimal efficiency, as would have been the case, for example, of a permanent macroeconomic stabilisation instrument depending on the common budget. That said, in the absence of such an instrument, the European recovery fund may fulfil this function in a reasonably adequate manner in the coming years. However, harnessing the maximum potential of these funds poses a huge challenge. The first difficulty lies in the need to develop the capacity to set in place a number of new high value-added projects that do not supplant those that would have been carried out had the European funds not been available. In addition, these projects require prompt execution, to permit a more robust economic recovery once the pandemic has been overcome. Indeed, this is the Government’s declared intention: to use these European funds as promptly as possible as a catalyst for structural transformation. Nevertheless, it is fair to acknowledge the huge challenge that the swift implementation of a potentially very large number of projects will entail for the existing structures. The projects executed under these programmes must be concentrated on areas such as digitalisation, the fight against climate change or improving human capital. Their effects on economic growth potential will depend, above all, on the projects to be executed being selected in accordance with a carefully designed structural reform plan.

However, these are not always straightforward, given the difficulties in agreeing how to apply the fairness principle and because economic theory and empirical evidence are not always capable of reaching irrefutable conclusions regarding the effects of the various taxes on economic growth. 31  A first approximation that may be useful is to compare the composition of tax receipts in Spain with their composition in other European countries. In this respect, Spain stands out for its low level of indirect taxation, which includes VAT, excise duties and, as a particular case of the latter, environmental taxes. Specifically, almost half of the difference between total tax revenues in Spain and the arithmetic mean for the euro area, as a percentage of GDP, is explained by the higher proportion of goods and services taxed at the reduced and super-reduced rates of VAT. A very significant part of this gap is also explained by the lower level of environmental taxation, which is primarily the result of low taxation of hydrocarbons. As regards direct taxation, corporate income tax receipts are also low in Spain. In contrast, when taxes on personal income are considered together with social contributions, their contribution to the revenue gap with the euro area is roughly zero. As highlighted by the second phase of the public spending review undertaken by the AIReF, there is considerable scope to reconsider a characteristic feature of the Spanish tax system, namely the particularly high level of tax benefits.
Sabine Lautenschläger: Fostering global growth Speech by Ms Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the panel during the G30 International Banking Seminar, Lima, 11 October 2015. *  *  *  I would like to thank Jacob and Jean-Claude for inviting me to participate in this panel. You will not be surprised that I will focus on the growth challenge faced by the euro area countries in my intervention. Let me stress from the outset that I believe that the euro area can make a much stronger contribution to global growth than it has done so far. But for this to happen, we need a stronger reform impetus in many euro area countries. To substantiate this claim, I would like to address two questions: first, where do we stand on growth and reforms in the euro area? And second, which structural reforms are still needed to support stronger and sustainable growth? Where do we stand on growth and reforms in the euro area? Growth has been recovering in the euro area, albeit at a modest pace. Output growth has been gathering pace throughout 2014 and in the first half of 2015 and employment has been increasing. However, developments are still uneven across member countries and it is not clear that the recovery can be sustained in the medium term.

In the past few years insolvency laws have been amended, in particular in Spain, Italy and Portugal, to better support early rescue of viable firms, to help the deleveraging process and to free up resources for further investment and thus productivity growth. I believe that these reforms, if the effort to implement them continues, will help us to grow out of the current high private sector debt problem. Of course, there are other possibilities and the list of potential reforms is long. I could elaborate further, but my time here is unfortunately limited so I chose to constrain myself to this crucial area of structural reforms. Conclusions Let me now conclude. As I said at the beginning, the euro area can make a much stronger contribution to global growth than it has done so far. The conditions are very favourable for a strong push for reforms; in particular, our monetary policy stance is supportive. Reforms should now focus on boosting productivity and reducing the burden of the high debt stock. Work in this direction has started and is ongoing, but the euro area governments need to continue on this track with more determination and impetus. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Norwegian covered bonds are very different from US CDOs backed by subprime mortgages. The regulations ensure that Norwegian covered bonds are a more transparent and substantially more secure investment alternative. The cover pool in the mortgage credit institutions consists of mortgages with a maximum loan to value ratio of 75 per cent. The loan to value ratio of the cover pool in Norwegian mortgage credit institutions that have so far issued covered bonds is well below this. All holders of covered bonds have the same right to the mortgage credit institution’s cover pool. In other words, there is no tranching as is the case for CDOs backed subprime mortgages. Investors will also have an overview of the risk parameters for mortgages that are part of the cover pool. This means that Norwegian covered bonds are far more transparent with respect to the assets that are the bondholders’ cover than CDOs backed by US subprime mortgages. Another difference between subprime mortgages in the US and Norwegian mortgages is that the regulations relating to the provision of credit are stricter in Norway. Subprime mortgages in the US have been sold through agents and mortgage brokers that have not been subject to federal supervision. In a number of cases, mortgages have been extended to persons with no income. Before Norwegian banks extend a loan, they assess a customer’s debt-servicing capacity. Norwegian banks are also required to advise a customer against taking out a mortgage if they feel that the customer will find it difficult to service the loan.

Like China, income disparity is a major problem. Reforms will be uneven and politically complex. The Indian system, with its decentralisation of power, makes change more difficult. Navigating the bureaucracy and its regulations requires connections, skill and lots of patience. However, while the pace may fluctuate, reforms are irreversible. Whichever party is in power will have to deliver the economic goods. This, together with the desire not to be left behind by China, will ensure that India stays on the path of reform. 22. India has many strengths, not least of which is its deep source of human capital, including a large pool of well-educated English-speaking professionals and workers. India has a young population, much younger than Japan's and China's. 55 percent of Indians are under 25 years old and 40 percent under 15. 23. India has carved a niche for itself as the world's back office and a global software centre. India is also working hard to change its investment outlook. In 2004, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India was $ billion, less than 10 percent of China's $ billion. Under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, fiscal consolidation has shown progress. Customs duties have been slashed. Another significant initiative is the development of Special Economic Zones, where superior infrastructure, flexible investment laws and special incentives are designed to draw in foreign investments. 24. There is strong competition among Indian states and cities for investments and to outperform each other. Recently, the Chief Minister of West Bengal called on me.
The current uncertain macroeconomic and market environments underscore the importance of staying vigilant to new or growing risk areas and vulnerabilities. 3. But it is also important not to lose sight of the long-term positives. Our capital markets continue to attract a diverse range of players and activities. Besides SGX, international exchange groups such as the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) and EUREX, have or will establish exchanges and clearing houses in Singapore. These will add to the vibrancy of our exchange landscape in parallel with the continued growth in our asset management industry. The last asset management survey done for 2014 showed robust growth in total assets under management, with assets under management increasing by 30% to $ trillion. There is clearly a role for our capital markets to help match savers and users of capital and in the management of financial risks. 4. The SGX Equities Dialogue this afternoon is a good occasion for sharing, discussion and reflection on developments affecting our securities market. Allow me to use this address to share some thoughts on our market regulatory structure, and MAS’ roles in market surveillance and enforcement; and I will conclude by sharing some shorter remarks on new trends and on skills development. A sound regulatory system 5. As an international centre, Singapore’s financial market is influenced by many external factors.

Such cross-border investigations present additional challenges, as crucial evidence may be situated beyond the jurisdictional reach of enforcement agencies and require coordination by multiple agencies globally. 37. I am pleased to note that the joint investigations arrangement between MAS and the Commercial Affairs Department (CAD) which commenced last year for all potential market misconduct offences has facilitated greater efficiency in the enforcement process and enabled both agencies to pursue more effective enforcement outcomes. There have been queries on the status of the investigations by MAS and CAD in the penny stocks debacle; it is still premature for me to comment but I just want to note that this is a complex exercise that is ongoing and involves reviewing vast amounts of trade data from more than 500 trading accounts (both local and overseas), requiring our investigators to obtain and comb through more than 20,000 communication messages, many witnesses and other pieces of potential  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  evidence. Investigations are at an advanced stage and charges are likely to be filed against the responsible parties in the course of this year. 38. Notwithstanding the complexity of current or future investigations, our enforcement agencies will be relentless in our pursuit of persons who break our securities laws. We will also seek criminal actions or higher civil penalties in appropriate cases to send the right deterrent message. I encourage you to read our Capital Markets Enforcement monograph which outlines our philosophy and approach to enforcement. 39.
Singapore is now third largest FX centre globally after London and New York. Two trends augur well for Singapore as FX and derivatives centre. •  One, regulatory reforms to promote greater transparency in markets will spur growth of exchange-traded instruments globally. This “futurisation” trend plays to SGX’s strength in derivatives and it has seen strong growth in equity index futures trading. •  Two, investors in Asian time zone will need a comprehensive suite of pan-Asian risk management products. SGX is well-placed to fill this need. SGX launched six Asian FX futures contracts in 2013 and plans to launch RMB futures in H2 this year alongside other currencies. 52 Insurance. Singapore is Asia’s leading insurance centre. Offshore insurance business in both direct and reinsurance markets is growing strongly. The offshore non-life insurance business has grown by average 11% per annum in the last 3 years. Singapore has also built up significant capacity and expertise for large, complex and specialty risks. Most large reinsurance and specialty Asian risks can now be fully placed in Singapore. 53 RMB business. There has been strong growth in RMB activities since the launch of RMB clearing services in Singapore in 2013. Growth is broad-based across various activities – deposits, trade finance, cash management and FX trading. Banks have expanded their RMB capabilities to serve needs of corporates based in Singapore and region. Based on SWIFT’s recent data, Singapore is currently the top RMB offshore clearing centre outside China/HK.

Take the mobile application Swish that was introduced in 2012 as an example. In the beginning, few of us had Swish, and it did not provide much value. However, as more people adopted Swish, its value increased since the number of connections increased. Swish is also good example of the benefits of banks working together. By launching a joint service, the Swedish banks managed to benefit from network and scale effects. Moreover, sharing infrastructure and development costs is cost-effective and makes it easier to reach the critical mass needed to take advantage of economies of scale. It is also important to point out that the uniformity of money is closely related to network effects. In a situation with multiple currencies present, we would not be sure if the merchant or payee would accept the money held. That would mean  9 [15]  having to carry different kinds in our wallets, establishing exchange rates and so on, all very inefficient. It is then likely that some would limit themselves to a subset of currencies. It is then undoubtedly harder to achieve the benefits from network effects. While network and scale effects generate efficiency gains, they also create barriers to entry. Or put differently, together network and scale effects often result in a ‘winner takes all’ situation. These entry barriers, thus, manifest themselves in possible concerns about the level of competition. Therefore, the public sector needs to balance the perils of what is often called a natural monopoly with the gains from joint services or sole providers.
Governor Jayawardena, there are many aspects of our new regime that I have not touched upon - including questions relating to our capital, our revenues, expenditure and allocation of profits and how they are reported and accounted for - which can also affect the degree of independence we enjoy. Perhaps we might explore these together with the other issues in our discussion. But I hope I have said enough to draw a few conclusions. My starting point had been that central bank independence in the extreme sense of exemption from democratic control is unrealistic and inappropriate. Yet wise governments in many countries around the world have recognised that they can gain advantage - in terms of public and market credibility from detached and unbiased advice in its field of competence from the central bank. The value that they put on the central bank’s role depends very much on the quality of that advice - the central bank’s objectivity and its technical expertise and professional competence. That is largely down to us. But the benefit a government derives from it depends too upon the advice being seen to be detached and unbiased, as well as technically expert and professionally competent. And that depends also upon the government.

The activities will be largely focused on drafting of the new law and the new bylaws on payment services and payment systems – in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance. The new regulation will entail transposing the latest European legislation in this area and setting grounds for significant changes to our payment landscape. Opening the door to fintech companies will provide opportunities to strengthen competition in the payment services market, and thus to enrich the offer of new, innovative and easily accessible products at a competitive price. Reflecting on the scope of this project, we have had in mind that, inter alia, the recent global economic crisis has clearly demonstrated that macroeconomic stability does not necessarily 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  ensure financial stability. It acknowledged though that financial instability has long-term adverse effects on economic growth and macroeconomic stability. This explains the large step taken by the EU - a banking union set up on two pillars: the single supervisory mechanism and the single resolution mechanism. Undeniably, countries heading towards the EU and the European Monetary Union will have to work hard to harmonize the supervisory setup as well as other institutional and structural elements relevant for the smooth financial sector functioning. Therefore, the second component addresses the banking regulation and supervision and aims to improve our supervisory capacities.
I will first discuss recent developments in jobs and pay, before providing an account of them centred on movements up and down the jobs ladder. I will then turn to recent developments in the world and UK economies and their potential implications for monetary policy. The Jobs Boom The past few years have been a jobs bonanza in the UK. Since 2012, 3.4 million net new jobs have been created. Table 1 compares job creation across previous periods of UK economic recovery. No economic recovery since the Second World War has seen as many new jobs created. This leaves the UK employment rate at its highest (61.5%) and the unemployment rate at its lowest (3.8%) in half a century (Charts 1 and 2). 1  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48365241 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  Table 1: Job creation in different UK recoveries Recovery dates  Job creation (millions) 3.4 2.9 2.7 0.3 0.5 0.7  2011 Q4 - present 1993 Q1 – 2003 Q2 1984 Q2 – 1990 Q1 1977 Q4 – 1979 Q2 1972 Q1 – 1973 Q4 1952 – 1955  Sources: ONS and Bank of England Millennium of Data. Notes: Data taken at quarterly frequency from 1970s and measure change in whole economy employment period during periods of sustained falling unemployment. Other definitions of recovery would of course suggest different amounts/periods of job creation, but it remains true that the current phase of job creation is high by historical standards.

Chart 11: “Alternative work” arrangements  Number of people on different employment contracts , millions  5 4 3 2 1 0 2001  2003 Self employed  2005  2007  2009  Agency workers  2011  2013  2015  2017  2019  In employment on a zero-hours contract  Sources: ONS and Bank of England calculations. Notes: Agency workers calculated on a quarterly basis using LFS data on those reporting to work for, or receive payment from, an employment agency in their main or second job. Data on zero hour contracts is published annually up to 2012, and then bi-annually from 2013. Zero hour contract and agency data are not seasonally adjusted. Some of the increase in the agency work and zero hours lines may reflect increased awareness and reporting. These structural shifts in the workplace are often called the “gig economy”. Their common denominator is greater working time flexibility in the jobs contract. For some, this increased flexibility has been welcome. In  10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  10  surveys, around 30% of workers says they have benefitted from this flexibility, particularly female workers (re-)entering the workforce and older workers tapering into retirement.5 For others, though, these shifts in working arrangements have been a cause for concern. In surveys, around half to two-thirds of workers say they would prefer either to be working more hours or to have greater certainty around their hours.6 For them, AWA are not welcome flexibility but unwelcome insecurity.
5  See The Nation’s Report Card, http://nationsreportcard.gov. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  I would argue that an additional factor favors Texas: We have a Legislature that under both Democratic and Republican governors has over time deliberately crafted laws and regulations, and tax and spending regimes, encouraging business formation and job creation. Just last month, Fairfield, Calif.-based vehicle reseller Copart Inc. announced that it will move its headquarters to Texas, citing “greater operational efficiencies.”6 The CEO for the owner of Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr. restaurants, Andy Puzder, claims it takes six months to two years to secure permits in California to build a new Carl’s Jr., whereas in Texas, it takes six weeks. These two anecdotes from California alone clearly illustrate that firms and jobs will go to where it is easiest to do business – not where it is less convenient and more costly. Both state and federal authorities need to bear this in mind as they plot changes in the fiscal and regulatory policy needed to restore the job-creating engine of America. As an official of the Federal Reserve charged with making monetary policy for the country as a whole, I am constantly mindful that investment and job-creating capital is free to roam not only within the United States, but to any place on earth where it will earn the best risk-adjusted return.

Technological progress, innovation, and new models of competition are changing the financial industry and there will undoubtedly be winners and losers. Understanding all of the factors that drive successful transformations will be a critical insight for both risk managers and supervisors. Conclusions 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  The financial sector is large, complex and constantly evolving due to a wide range of technological, business, and macro factors. Your job, and ours, is to be vigilant and open-minded in our thinking, constantly questioning our traditional assumptions and scanning the horizon to understand how the risk landscape is changing. The topics covered at today’s conference are some of the most important risks that the industry faces. Climate change and digital transformation are two powerful trends with the potential to fundamentally change financial services. We all need to be forward-looking and proactive in order to promote our ultimate goal of a safe and sound financial system that supports the sustainable provision of financial services and economic growth. Thank you for your attention. 1 NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters  (2019), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2 The Impact of Higher Temperature on Economic Growth, Riccardo Colacito, Bridget Hoffmann, Toan Phan and  Tim Sablik, Economic Brief, August 2018, No. 18–08; Climate Change and the Federal Reserve, Glenn Rudebusch, FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019–19, March 25 2019; Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II: Impacts, Risks and Adaptation in the United States, U.S. Global Change Research Program.