samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Firstly, we need to consider the sovereign level. Both in the developed and emerging worlds, government debt levels have risen to unusual heights. Second at the corporate level, where current levels of borrowing both to banks and through securities are high. And thirdly we need to consider household debt. You have only got to read the newspapers to know that in the UK the level of debt to income has risen significantly. In the USA it is even higher and other countries such as Australia and Holland, which are subject to a similar low interest rate environment, are seeing similar trends. The question is just what are the vulnerabilities? We are now at historically low rates of interest. Servicing high levels of debt seems quite realistic. But a variety of things could get people to behave differently. To save more, or to repay debt. This could come if they felt that interest rates might rise and we did raise them modestly earlier this month. But it could also come for other reasons: a wish to save more for retirement for example. If a substantial change occurred it would, in the first instance, impact on monetary policy and our ability to meet our inflation targets. From a financial stability perspective too however we would clearly need to follow the evolution of any reactions and their  BIS Review 49/2003  3  consequences very closely.

Internationally, we have contributed expertise and advice to the standard setting process via bodies such as the Basle Committee and the International Accounting Standards Board. And we contribute actively in the work of official international bodies like the Financial Stability Forum, the Group of Twenty and the G10 central banks’ Committee on the Global Financial System. On a separate tack, we have also increased our focus on insurance, where the FSA is developing a prudential approach along the lines of Basel II for insurance companies. We recently led work in the CGFS to better understand techniques of credit risk transfer and their implications - particularly important for reinsurance. We also wanted to obtain better data on who was shedding and who was taking on what risk. This should in due course allow more effective monitoring of the transfer and accumulation of risk. And earlier this year, I was myself heavily involved in drawing up the Group of Thirty study “Global Clearing and Settlement: A Plan of Action”. It detailed 20 recommendations in relation to interoperability, risk management and governance that once implemented should improve efficiency and reduce risk in securities clearing and settlement. The task now is to get them implemented: and we are involved in that process too. So in these areas we try to help to influence standards that are being set at a global level. Standards which of course also bear directly on much UK-based activity.
To do this, ASEAN has advanced the target date of establishing an ASEAN Economic Community from 2020 to 2015. ASEAN Leaders will, at their Summit in Singapore in November, issue a legallybinding blueprint to implement the ASEAN Economic Community by 2015. You may think that the time-frame is not ambitious enough but remember that ASEAN is like a centipede in its movement where all legs must move in unison. Also, the 10 countries are at very different stages of development, with per capita ranging from a low of $ for Myanmar to a high of $ for Brunei. With the ASEAN Economic Community, ASEAN will eventually evolve into a single market with free flow of goods, services, investment and talent. An integrated ASEAN is expected to boost the region’s GDP by 10%. For businesses, an integrated ASEAN means greater market access and more harmonized rules and standards. For investors, an integrated market of half a billion people will be an attractive investment destination. ASEAN’s combined GDP of $ trillion is not insignificant. It is, in fact, bigger than India’s $ billion and more than a third of China’s $ trillion. ASEAN Finance Ministers have identified capital markets as a key area to fast-track integration. ASEAN bond markets have tripled, from $ billion in 1997 to $ billion in 2007. From 2001 to 2006, ASEAN market capitalization has grown by more than 120%. ASEAN has in place further initiatives to harmonise and integrate financial markets and boost liquidity.

So, with the recovery momentum remaining firm but the risks to economic stability rising, the Monetary Policy Committee saw less need for maintaining low interest rates and felt that the monetary policy stance should be adjusted to give priority to economic stability, with the adjustment being gradually paced. This is essentially the rationale behind the decision on Wednesday by the Monetary Policy Committee to raise the policy interest rate by 25 basis points. At this juncture, many of you may wonder whether higher oil prices together with higher domestic interest rates might be too punitive to the health of the domestic economy. Let me say that we have looked carefully at this issue and are of the opinion that the growth momentum at this time is quite firm. Although the adverse effects an growth from higher domestic interest rates will be there, the effects will not be large to the extent that they will derail the ongoing momentum of recovery. This is because the fundamentals of the economy at present are quite good, and with a strong fiscal position, these two factors should allow the economy to flexibly adjust to the negative shocks without interrupting the momentum of growth. On the contrary, the early rise in domestic interest rates will help maintain macroeconomic stability which is cruial for sustaining economic growth in the medium term. Ladies and Gentlemen, A few weeks ago, I had the good fortune of visiting both Melbourne and Sydney and came across this concept of a cleanskin wine.
In Malaysia, the payment system has significantly transformed over the last 25 years. The journey started many years ago in 1997, major changes to the payment landscape occurred with the consolidation of the three ATM networks in the country into MEPS. This initiative removed duplication and enhanced the network multiplier effects. In fact, Malaysia was among the first in the world to complete the migration to the more secure chip-based payment cards in 2005. To provide a roadmap for the development, in 2011, Bank Negara Malaysia developed a 10-year Financial Sector Blueprint which amongst others, outlined the initiative to displace paperbased payment instruments, namely cheques and cash, in favour of the more convenient and cost effective e-payment methods. We now have PayNet, the domestic shared infrastructure at the heart of the country’s payment systems. We envision PayNet to be a catalyst, one that challenges the status quo to drive its diverse members to foster competition and innovation, develop cost effective solutions and advance financial inclusion through digital payments. We should expect PayNet to ensure that the payment infrastructure of this country will always be at the cutting edge of technology. This will enable the economy to innovate, be competitive and productive. The results speak for themselves; we have made great strides. Payment card spending has increased by more than threefold since 2006 to RM176.9 billion in 2017. From 2011 to 2017, epayments per capita have more than doubled to 111 transactions.

Only ambitious policies will deliver concrete benefits for the people of Europe. This is also what our common history tells us. This year marks the 25th anniversary of the Single Market and of the Maastricht Treaty’s entry into force. Those were bold decisions and we continue to benefit from them today: goods, people, services and capital can move freely and EU legislation ensures that commensurate rights and obligations apply throughout our Union. With the creation of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) we went further by adopting the single currency. It is in this spirit that I look forward to the coming months and the pivotal discussions we will have on reforming EMU governance. Thank you for your attention. I am at your disposal for questions. 1 www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2018/html/ecb.sp180205.en.html 2 See “Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences”, ECB Occasional Paper Series, No 181,  January 2017. 3 See “Domestic and global drivers of inflation in the euro area”, ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 4 /2017. 4 General Court’s judgment in Case T-496/11 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland v European  Central Bank. ECLI: EU:T:2015:133. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
As one example, it is estimated that annual investment in sustainable infrastructure could top £ billion for decades. 27 Firms that align their business models to the transition to a carbon-neutral world will be rewarded handsomely; those that fail to adapt will cease to exist. The new finance can smooth the transition to a carbon-neutral economy. The City has been leading the way. UK underwriters, led by the former Lord Mayor Sir Roger Gifford, helped create the green bond market which has doubled every year since 2012 to reach $ outstanding.28 UKbased banks, like Barclays and HSBC, insurers, like Aviva, and asset managers, like Generation, helped develop climate financial disclosure standards and were amongst the TCFD’s first adopters. Now a range of firms at the heart of the City are beginning to reshape the management of climate-related risks and opportunities. But we must go much further if the UK is to reach net zero carbon emissions. Disclosure must become comprehensive. Risk management must be transformed. Sustainable investing must go mainstream. 26  See: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/790626/2018-provisionalemissions-statistics-report.pdf. 27 See: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/703816/green-financetaskforce-accelerating-green-finance-report.pdf. 28 Source: Climate Bonds Initiative Data. 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  10  Fortunately, the momentum is growing.

19 20 21  7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  7  also act as the unique identifier for a digital ID, which could help the two-step verification process required for a secure system. The Bank will submit a formal response on how to develop an open platform for competitive SME finance to the Smart Data Review referenced by the Chancellor this evening. Strengthen resilience in the face of new risks The City of London has maintained its pre-eminence by innovating. This was as true in the First Industrial Revolution when finance oiled the pistons of the steam engines, as it is today at the dawn of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, with the advent of cloud computing and the robosapien fund manager. Today the key competitive advantage in financial services is how firms – and supervisors—collect, store and analyse the explosion of data. Just as the steam engine transformed manufacturing, AI, ML and cloudbased technologies are transforming services. Accordingly, the second focus of the Bank’s initial response is how new general purpose technologies, like the Cloud and AI, can be used to strengthen the resilience of the system. Embracing these technologies could herald leaner, faster and more tailored financial services.
In recent years, with the financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis, the real return has been lower, averaging about 2½ percent since 1998. 1  Source: Lie, E. and C. Venneslan: Over evne. Finansdepartementet 1965–1992 [Beyond our power. Ministry of Finance 1965–1992]. Pax forlag, 2010. 2  See Report no. 25 to the Storting (1973-74): “Petroleumsvirksomhetens plass i det norske samfunn” [The role of petroleum activity in Norwegian society]. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  We should be careful about taking a rear-view mirror approach to forming expectations about the future. Equity prices fluctuate considerably and there is a possibility that the results of the past few years will be counterbalanced by good years ahead. But changes in the global economy affect the growth outlook and the balance of risks, and hence financial market returns as well. (Chart 9: Real return on 10-year government bonds) The yield on the presumably safest long-term government bonds can provide a basis for estimating the return on the Fund. Returns exceeding this will reflect the risk we are willing to take. In 2001, real interest rates on long-term government bonds averaged around 3 percent internationally. Real interest rates have since fallen and long-term real interest rates are now at a historical low of between 0 and 1 percent. At the moment, it would seem that economic growth ahead will be more modest than in the favourable pre-crisis years.

We must therefore be prepared for an extended period of lower returns, even though growth and financial market returns do not always go hand in hand. Over time, we expect equities to yield a higher return than bonds. Over the past few years, the Fund has increased its allocation to equities, compensating to some extent for low bond yields. However, the excess return on equities must be considerable to keep up the overall return on the Fund. This is not impossible, but perhaps more than we can expect. A bolder investment strategy could compensate for low interest rates, although the risk of substantial losses would also increase. This is hardly a tempting path. (Table: Estimated real return) Today’s situation is different from when the fiscal rule was drawn up in 2001. At that time, a real return on the Fund of 4 percent, or a little higher, based on the then prevailing distribution between equities and bonds, was a reasonable assumption. Today, calculations yield a lower figure for expected real return3. The real return on bonds in the Fund’s portfolio can now be estimated at 1 percent. With a normal risk premium on equities, the real return on the whole Fund can be quantified at 3 percent. There is a possibility that the real return will be higher, but it may also be lower. If we spend more than the annual return on the Fund, we will be eating into the savings portion.
This would facilitate more active trading of SGS and $ bonds and deepen bond market liquidity. Repo transactions with non-residents are presently subject to a $ million consultation limit. Banks have told us that this requirement to consult is a psychological hurdle, even though MAS has assured them that the decisions will be liberal and quick. A non-resident borrowing $ through a repo must first obtain the equivalent amount in SGS, which is a $ asset. Given that MAS Notice 757 already limits a non-resident to no more than $ million of Singapore dollar credit for such investments, allowing banks to transact $ repos freely with non-residents will not lead to a significant net increase in $ credit facilities to non-residents. MAS has therefore decided to lift the $ million consultation limit. Banks in Singapore may now, without prior consultation with MAS, enter into repo transactions in Singapore government securities  BIS Review 130/1999  3  and $ denominated bonds listed on SES with any party, and for any amount, on condition that there is full delivery of collateral. OTC interest rate derivatives OTC interest rate products would open more avenues for non-resident investors to manage their $ interest rate risks arising from investing in the $ debt market. But hitherto MAS has restricted OTC interest rate derivatives, because they could facilitate speculative volatility in the $ In September this year, SIMEX introduced the $ three-month interest rate futures contract.

Conclusion Beyond the immediate Y2K issue, it is clear that Asian bankers face many serious challenges. They need to keep abreast of changing developments, and anticipate new trends. They must significantly improve their corporate governance. Technological innovations will continue. Policymakers have a full agenda to liberalise prudently, while tightening standards of supervision and enforcement. As financial liberalisation proceeds, new market opportunities will emerge and there will be a demand for more differentiated products and services. Capital markets should grow in Asia, providing an alternative means of intermediation for regional economies. If Asian financial systems can do these things and respond to new opportunities, they will be a source of strength, and not weakness, to their countries as the new millennium dawns. BIS Review 130/1999  5
The PTIS, which was announced in Budget 2023 and will go live on 1 January 2024, will allow qualifying donors in Singapore to claim 100% tax deduction, capped at 40% of the donor's statutory income, for overseas donations made through qualifying local intermediaries. 1 We hope the introduction of PTIS will encourage philanthropic giving to become a regular, professional feature of family offices here. HOW IS MAS SAFEGUARDING THE OFFICIAL FOREIGN RESERVES AGAINST CLIMATE RISKS? Let me say a few quick words about our 2023 Sustainability Report which we are releasing today alongside our Annual Report. The Report gives a good account of how sustainability is integrated across MAS' various functions: as a central bank safeguarding Singapore's OFR against climate risk; as a financial regulator ensuring a climate-resilient financial sector;  13/16  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  as a promoter of the financial sector developing a vibrant sustainable finance ecosystem; and as an organisation trying to reduce its own carbon footprint. Today, I will focus on an area we have not spoken about much - how MAS is safeguarding the OFR against climate risk. It is probably the least news-worthy of the issues I have covered today but likely to be the most critical for the future. In 2021, MAS developed and published a climate risk management strategy to enhance the climate resilience of our investment portfolio. We conducted a climate scenario analysis for the whole portfolio.

However, the very fact of sharing and the multiple parties involved can give rise to risks of their own - particularly of a legal nature - which means that the documentation in syndicated loans needs to be as watertight as possible. The benefits of standardised documentation This is why the Association’s initiative in producing a suite of standard loan documents is so important, and is probably the Association’s major achievement to date. Good documentation is not glamorous and is generally not fascinating reading, but it plays a vital role in underpinning the growth and liquidity of markets in financial products. This is not a theoretical proposition. The explosive growth in the derivatives market is to a large extent due to the role played by the International Swaps & Derivatives Association (ISDA) in the development and maintenance of its derivatives documentation. The most recent testimony to this is the emergence within the space of the last few years of a $ 1 trillion credit derivatives market, built on the platform provided by the Standardised ISDA Default Swap Documentation. Why is standardised documentation such a powerful driver of market growth? The answer is that it creates more predictability and certainty about the characteristics of the financial contract in question. BIS Review 33/2002  1  People are better able to understand what their rights and obligations are under the contract, and this gives them more confidence to enter the market and transact.
Regrettably, however, the then Deputy Governor’s only comment on the book appeared to be that he was grateful to Keynes for writing in a style which an educated man could read with pleasure, and for having the book printed in a particularly attractive style. This Deputy Governor has learned a great deal from Keynes’ book. I refer to it in almost every lecture I give. In this lecture I shall discuss three aspects of the significance of the labour market for monetary policy. The first of these concerns the link between unemployment and inflation in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The second issue is how the Monetary Policy Committee uses the available empirical information about the UK labour market when deciding on interest rates. How do unemployment figures and earnings data enter the MPC’s decisions? The third issue is the way in which unemployment enters the objectives of monetary policy. With an explicit inflation target, is it true that the MPC neither cares about unemployment nor takes it into consideration when setting interest rates? The labour market and the monetary transmission mechanism The theory of unemployment has spawned more concepts, and – without doubt – more acronyms, than almost any other field of economics (apart, perhaps, from measures of price inflation). I shall return to the language of unemployment later. But I want first to discuss the two concepts which are at the heart of any discussion of monetary policy and the labour market.

Second, the temporary improvement in the terms of trade that followed the rise in sterling in 1996 reduced the wedge between the real consumption wage – which is of relevance to employees and which reflects a mix of both domestic and imported inflation components – and the real product wage – which is of relevance to employers and which reflects the prices only of domestically produced goods. That reduction in the wedge is likely to have reduced the pressure on nominal wage growth for any given level of unemployment. So it is quite possible to believe that the NAIRU has fallen even if the natural rate has not. But this is likely to be temporary. As the impact of sterling’s appreciation on wages and prices wears off, the NAIRU will, other things being equal, rise towards the natural rate. But other more BIS Review 103/1998  –5–  lasting changes may reduce the natural rate (and hence the NAIRU). For example, a range of government policies, including changes to the Jobseekers Allowance, the New Deal and the new Working Families Tax Credit, have increased incentives to work. The National Minimum Wage works in the opposite direction. Assessing the impact of these structural factors on the natural rate is no easier than calculating the effect of macroeconomic shocks on the NAIRU. But it is useful to distinguish the two concepts, not least because they can move quite differently in the short run. Enough of this theory, some of which may appear largely semantic.
7  Bank of England: Quarterly Bulletin 1, 2011, Chart 13: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/quarterlybulletin/qb1101.pdf  BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  14  BIS central bankers’ speeches

The recession after the credit bubble burst and oil prices fell in 1986 was deep. The recession was deeper than would have been the case if we had maintained a larger and competitive manufacturing sector. Norwegian industry lost export market shares in the late 1980s in spite of the booming conditions abroad and substantial capacity slack at home. It was recognised that a substantial revision of economic policy would be necessary and that the problems created by inflation had to be taken seriously. The exchange rate was chosen as the nominal anchor in 1986. A fixed exchange rate was an intermediate target for achieving low and stable inflation. Inflation fell gradually to 2-3 per cent in 1991-1992. We had to abandon the fixed exchange rate policy in 1992. An important reason was the weakness inherent in the fixed exchange rate regime in a world with free capital flows and deep financial markets. The krone exchange rate showed, however, little change to begin with and rapidly found a new range. A formal inflation target for monetary policy was introduced in the spring of 2001. The operational target of monetary policy as defined by the government is inflation of close to 2.5 per cent over time. Many countries had already gained many years’ experience in operating such a system. New Zealand was the first in line towards the end of the 1980s. Canada followed shortly thereafter.