samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The Swiss Market Index (SMI) has gained almost 5% since mid-year, recently surpassing the 2007 peak by over 12% (cf. chart 2). In this environment, interest rates recovered slightly from their lows and yield curves also steepened again. However, yields on government bonds issued by countries considered safe by investors have mostly been below mid-year levels of late; around 28% of government debt  Page 1/6  Berne, 12 December 2019 Andréa M. Maechler  News conference  worldwide is still trading at negative yields. In Switzerland, the yield on 10-year Confederation bonds recently stood at −0.5%, approximately the same level as in mid-2019. Overall, uncertainty dominated the financial markets – a fact that was also reflected in foreign exchange market prices. Weaker economic data weighed particularly heavily on the euro, which has depreciated by some 2.5% in trade-weighted terms since the end of June. On the other hand, currencies considered safe havens by the markets were able to appreciate in this environment. The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc have gained slightly since mid-year; the franc thus remains highly valued. The situation on the foreign exchange markets is still fragile (cf. chart 3). Money market developments  Let me now turn to developments in the Swiss franc money market. Thomas Jordan has already mentioned the adjustments we have made to the way we calculate exemption thresholds for the negative interest rate. These changes came into effect on 1 November.

As such, there is no dearth of hypotheses which scientists could make and a dearth of theories which they can formulate. That is good news for prospective scientists. However, one theory which is valid today could be disproved by another theory to be formulated tomorrow. Hence, all theories are subject to the same property: the property of refutability. In fact, Karl Popper’s argument was that if a theory cannot be refuted, then it does not become a theory. Hence, any scientific research will discover only a truth and not the truth. This means that all scientific research studies undertaken in all the disciplines would produce only a relative truth and not the absolute truth. With all the scientific apparatuses, techniques and computing capacity available today, science still cannot reach out to the absolute truth. As such, the task of finding the absolute truth has been relegated to religion and mystics. This may be discouraging news for those who are engaged in scientific research. But, that has been the way of science throughout its history and such discovery of relative truth has been adequate for the purpose of building the human knowledge base and putting it to practical use by mankind. In the modern world, the discovery of absolute truth may therefore be irrelevant. Conclusions A researcher is not a propagandist or a dictator. His task is to follow an accepted set of principles, guidelines and an ethical and moral code to discover a truth, and not the truth, and add it to the extant knowledge base.
For instance, in the mining sector, the supply of goods and services has been taken up by private companies including those that can be classified as SMEs. Similarly, the transport sector, which was dominated by Government through the United Bus Company of Zambia (UBZ), Zambia Railways and Zambia Airways, etc, is now largely run by the private sector, consisting mostly of small and medium entrepreneurs. One can go on to mention the tourism, manufacturing, real estate, construction and others. This development is of great benefit to the economy in general and individual entrepreneurs in particular. Therefore, small- and medium-scale enterprises have the potential to make a significant contribution to the growth of the economy, thereby improving the economic welfare of the population. As you may know, SMEs in Zambia often have a direct impact on community development. Since they are usually based in places where the owners live, they draw upon the community for their workforce and rely on it to do business. They provide employment, particularly for low-skilled workers, as well as women and the youth, who usually make up the greatest proportion of the unemployed. However, this sector has faced difficulties in accessing credit for working capital and expansion of their investments. Mr Chairman, even if more SMEs wished to modernise their plant and equipment, they would find it hard to do so because of the difficulty of obtaining financing. Many banks choose not to provide credit to SMEs as they are perceived to be more risky and yet less profitable.

We are also pleased to witness the unique partnership between Banks and MFIs and SMEs on sharing skills and experiences in areas of common interest. This is key to creation of common understanding. I wish to conclude by urging participants, to actively participate in the deliberations of this conference. I am certain that this conference will benefit both the local institutions and our visitors from abroad. BIS Review 79/2008  3  Once again, I would like to thank Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, for organising such an important workshop for MFIs and SMEs. Honourable Minister, distinguished ladies and gentlemen, I thank you. 4  BIS Review 79/2008
I would, for example, underline the development of asset-backed securities markets in different countries, among which France, to take advantage of demand from global investors for this type of securities. Let me also mention, as regards the short end of the yield curve, the very rapid development of the market for commercial paper in euro and, in particular, the success of the Paris-based market, which has attracted large foreign issuers, thanks to its security, an appropriate regulatory framework and the efficient functioning of DVP procedures. The euro’s market share as an issuance currency reflects, to a large extent, the ability of intermediaries to promote the deep and liquid markets that issuers and investors need. Hence, as was predicted by observers, since the start of Stage Three the euro has become the second most important currency in all segments of international capital markets. •  At the shortest end of the market, the integration of the interbank market took place last year right from the start of EMU, thanks to the installation of the TARGET system, which enabled large-value payment systems to move money efficiently and safely in real time from one location to another. An important feature to have in mind is that this efficiency has been achieved not through the centralization of payment systems, but through a decentralized network in which national RTGS systems managed by NCBs are linked together. Such a structure is working well.

Mervyn King: How international cooperation can raise Britain’s economic performance Opening remarks by Mr Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, at the Panel on EU/US cooperation at the Advancing Enterprise Conference, London, 26 January 2004. *  *  *  Chancellor, Ladies and Gentlemen, In this session we shall examine how international cooperation can raise Britain’s economic performance. Before introducing our speakers this afternoon, I would like to present a few facts about productivity in this country, and then pose three questions. You might ask why a central bank governor is chairing a panel on enterprise. Well, some believe in prudence for a purpose; we believe in stability as a spring-board, a springboard for enterprise. Since the start of the Railway Age in the 1830s, output per person has increased ten-fold in Britain; it has increased twenty-fold in the United States. That is because over that period output per person rose on average by 1 ½% a year in the UK and by 2% in the US. The result is that the level of output per person is now around 25% lower in Britain than the US. In part this reflects shorter working hours, but it also reflects a lower level of productivity. From around 1980, however, the productivity gap between Britain and United States started to close, and for the following 15 years or so labour productivity actually rose significantly faster in the UK than the US, at an annual rate of 2.1% compared with 1.4%.
The relatively better growth prospects have meant that many investors have chosen to invest their capital in the United States, where the expected return is higher than in, for example, Europe. This has led to a capital flow that has strengthened the dollar, which has contributed to reducing net exports and thereby increasing the current account deficit. Expectations of increased income have also contributed to subduing saving by US households. Another explanation is that the deficit is a result of the domestic policy in the United States. The expansionary economic policy has contributed to reducing saving both among households and in the public sector, which has stimulated consumption and growth. A third explanation points out Asia’s structural saving surplus as the driving force behind the imbalances. Private saving is generally at a high level in Asia. This applies in particular to the emerging economies, but Japan also has substantial private saving. Following the financial crisis in Asia in 1997, there was a correction of the earlier investment bubble, and the investment ratio fell from very high levels. The exception is China, where both saving and investment have increased substantially. The increased saving has to a great extent been invested in US bonds, which has pushed down longterm interest rates in the United States an further stimulated US household consumption. Approximately two thirds of saving in the world is currently channelled to the United States.

This means that 100 million people have moved to "stage 3”, that is, marginally above the poverty line. There have also been major geographical changes in the spread of poverty. The number of poor people has declined in Asia, but increased in other developing countries. Africa South of the Sahara has fared the worst, with the number of poor people there doubling over the past 20 years. Over the past two years, Africa has enjoyed the highest GDP growth in more than 30 years. 2 So even there, globalisation may begin to have a positive impact. China – an important force in the change process China’s entry into the global market economy has been one of the driving forces in the change process that the world economy is currently undergoing. The country’s significance in the global world economy has increased at a rate and in a scope that few people considered possible a few decades ago. Since the reform policy began at the end of the 1970s, average growth has been 9 per cent a year. China has accounted for one third of the world’s real growth in recent years. The country has rapidly transformed into the second largest economy in the world, become the third largest trading nation and one of the largest recipients of foreign direct investment. 3 The strong growth in China has been driven by investment and exports. Investment comprises just over half of GDP, which is much higher than the shares in OECD countries or in other rapidly-growing economies.
As Professor Lin said we had the great recession of 2008 and its immediate aftermath what you found was that three strands of relatively new economic activism manifested themselves. In the first instance you saw a huge pump-priming effort by the People’s Republic of China, which in its wake created perhaps the strongest commodity price boom that we have seen in recent history. That I think was a key take away from that period and China to some extent prevented the world from falling into a depression by stimulating its economy, and as Professor Lin has now elaborated to us, it falls in line with his perception that in times of recession developing countries are well-advised to go ahead and really stimulate domestic infrastructure construction etc. to take on the slack caused by international events. Secondly we saw the major central banks of the world, that includes the United States, the Europe, the United Kingdom, Japan and Switzerland, creating money on an unparallel basis which for my calculations to date add up to about 8 trillion dollars worth of new money created in the last 5 to 6 years. That is significant. That’s the second strand that emanated from this crisis period. And thirdly what we have seen is that the so called developing economies in a curious twist of their economy fate, actually became the biggest creditors in the world and the so called rich countries, the developed countries, were actually the biggest debtors.

Have we got to then look at a different model and that’s where I think one key element of the international economics situation is very important to understand and that has to do with the emergence of information and communication technology as a principal driver of growth, specifically in the services sector of our economies and what have we used in that space to stimulate the growth impetus that previously resided in manufacturing. Now we have to also understand that the manufacturing space has largely converged in China. The Chinese have built an international value chain over the last 30 to 40 years which is unparalleled in terms of its complexity and its far reaching nature and unless small countries like Sri Lanka participate in that value chain we in a sense are losing out on a tremendous opportunity. I put it to you that Sri Lanka still has not integrated itself adequately in that international value chain which the Chinese has built up in the last 30 to 40 years effectively, and that is why we have effectively not fulfilled our growth potential in the last 5 years since the cessation of the internal civil conflict in this country. The second point I like to make is that we rely a lot on foreign savings for the growth of our economy.
Rogoff (2017), as well as Agrawal and Kimball (2015), have pointed out that if the central bank were to abolish cash entirely, or introduce an exchange rate between cash and central bank reserves, and allow this exchange rate to reflect negative interest rates, the lower bound could be eliminated entirely. But this is not an easy matter – part of the Riksbank's social contract with Sweden’s citizens is to offer the means of payment demanded and many citizens wish to continue to use cash. Accept low inflation One interesting question is that of which measure of inflation a small, open economy should actually have. The Riksbank measures inflation using the CPIF, and this basket includes quite a large element of imported goods, as Sweden is a small, open economy. The question is whether Sweden can have inflation on target if the rest of the world has very low inflation. Or must we accept that inflation is too low? Is it reasonable that the price of domestically produced goods and services is to increase by more than 2 per cent to compensate for imports being cheap? Yes, I consider such compensation is possible, as the variable exchange rate, in principle, can capture the difference between Swedish inflation and inflation abroad. The real economic conditions determine which relative prices prevail for Swedish and foreign goods. For example, a deterioration of the relative price of Swedish goods could arise through either a fall in Swedish prices or an increase in foreign prices or a combination of these.

Part of this discussion has been marked by a desire or hope for a return to the situation before the financial crisis. But another part focuses on the insight that we may  9 The Riksbank does not normally buy this type of asset, but as early as the 1897 Sveriges Riksbank Act it was  proposed that the bank have the power of authority to buy any Swedish bonds at all, in addition to certain foreign government securities. This power of authority has since passed from the 1897 act via the 1934 act to the one from 1988 that currently applies. Along the road, this power of authority has undergone some changes in wording but the essence of it still remains. The Riksbank has the right, for monetary policy purposes, to buy, sell and mediate securities (including corporate bonds), foreign currency and the rights and obligations linked to these assets. 11 [25]  have to change how we work in the longer term too. The current situation strengthens this already great need. Below, there follow a number of the proposals raised. Some of them are intended to institutionalise the usage we have already come across in my description of the crisis measures. One key theme of the discussion is the need to have tools able to counteract future recessions in a credible manner. It is also important to be systematic and to describe clearly the conditions under which these tools may be used.
These decisions interact appreciably with the solvency requirements set by the prudential supervisor and they give shape to a series of regulatory demands that may affect the viability of institutions and the structure of the industry. A fruitful framework of collaboration between the SRB and the SSM is thus needed and, specifically, the criteria the SRB develops to exercise the discretion afforded it by the regulations should be properly discussed with the prudential authority. 5 Final remarks  In conclusion, I have referred in my address to the intense work in all jurisdictions to amend the bank crisis management framework so that it strengthens the capacity available to maintain financial stability without this requiring the massive use of public funds, as occurred in the recent financial crisis. The progress made in Europe has been considerable, having incorporated the most demanding international standards into the regulations. The new resolution regulations pose most considerable constraints, which are in many cases weightier determining factors than solvency requirements themselves for financial institutions. It is thus necessary to harness the ongoing revision of European legislation and the subsequent re-definition of the policies to be pursued by the resolution authorities so as to fine-tune demands in a way that provides for the orderly adjustment of the industry to the new regime. As earlier discussed, adding flexibility to some requirements and setting transitional arrangements for others may be of help here, while also reinforcing the authorities’ ability to manage crises in the short and medium term.

There is hardly any good reason for different risk weightings on similar loans given by a domestic bank and a branch of a foreign bank. With these thoughts on central banks and macroprudential policies, I would remind you that we organize this conference hoping that we shall be able to take something useful away for our further work on financial stability. I would like to thank the program committee for putting together what looks like an engaging program. I wish all of you good luck and hope you shall have fruitful discussions in the next two days. 2  BIS Review 112/2010
Chart 7 Manufacturing output in UK, Euro-Area and Sweden Rebased to 100 in 2007 105 100 95 90 85  UK Euro-Area  80  Sweden 75 70 2007  2008  2009  2010  Source: Eurostat and Thompson Datastream  Chart 8 Goods exports from UK, Euro-Area and Sweden Rebased to 100 in 2007 115 110 105 100 95 90 UK 85  Euro-Area  80  Sweden  75 70 2007  2008  2009  2010  Source: Eurostat and Thompson Datastream  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  The performance of UK manufacturing output and exports relative to other regions and countries which have maintained stronger currencies – such as the euro area and Sweden – supports this view. Chart 7 shows that there is very little difference in the current level of output relative to its pre-recession level in the UK, Sweden and the euro area – though the depreciation in the pound may have helped shield manufacturers from a bigger decline in output during the recession. Chart 8 shows broadly the same picture for the exports of goods, which are dominated by trade in manufactured products. This picture is perhaps not that surprising when we think about the characteristics of the modern UK manufacturing base. Many UK manufacturers are niche producers linked into highly integrated global supply chains.

It had an impact on the UK through a number of different channels – global financial markets, the financial health of our banks and other financial institutions, world trade and economic activity, and through business and consumer confidence. Because the shock was much bigger than earlier shocks the MPC had faced, the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  policy response was more dramatic, featuring deep cuts in interest rates and direct injections of money into the economy through Quantitative Easing. In my view, this was entirely right and appropriate given the risks of a deepening recession and deflationary pressures. Chart 4 Strong emerging market growth to continue Annual percentage growth rates of real GDP 10  Advanced Economies *  8  Emerging & Developing Economies *  6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1990  1992  1994  1996  1998  2000  2002  2004  2006  2008  2010  2012  *: 2011 and 2012 growth rates are IMF forecasts. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook  However, the trends in the global economy have now turned around. As Chart 4 shows, global growth in both the advanced economies and emerging and developing market economies – dominated by Asia – has recovered to rates very similar to our experience before the recession. And the upward pressure on global energy and commodity prices we saw before the recession have resumed.
Inflation is expected to further edge up in the short term before gradually coming down to 8 percent at the end of the year (Figure 11). Tighter monetary policy along with more coordinated fiscal policy conduct should contain the second round effects of the cost-push developments. Accordingly, we see inflation at 6 percent at the end of 2018 as the pass-through effect diminishes over time. Figure 11. Inflation and Output Gap Forecasts* (Percent)  Forecast Range*  Uncertainty Band  Year-End Inflation Targets  11  Output Gap  11  Control Horizon  1219  0919  0619  0319  -3 1218  -3 0918  -1  0618  -1  0318  1  1217  1  0917  3  0617  3  0317  5  1216  5  0916  7  0616  7  0316  9  1215  9  * Shaded area denotes the 70 percent confidence interval for the forecast. Source: CBRT. 7  2. Monetary Policy Dear Participants, I will devote the final section of my speech to the policy response to recent developments. The main focus will be on the CBRT policies, but at the end I will also try to elaborate briefly on how the other policies on the macroprudential and fiscal side are coordinated to address the associated trade-offs. Central Bank of Turkey has taken a series of steps in 2016 to simplify the monetary policy framework.

Main drivers of the improvement in the current account balance will be the recovery in exports and the weaker imports due to real exchange rate. Figure 5. Current Account Balance (CAB) (12-Month Cumulative, % of GDP) 0 -1  CAB/GDP  CAB/GDP (excl. gold)  -2 -3 -3,9 -4 -4,1  -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10  1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  Source: CBRT. We think that exports will be one of the main drivers of growth in 2017. The main contribution to exports is expected from the European demand. Turkish exports are highly sensitive to the demand from Europe which constitute more than half of our total exports. Latest projections suggest that EU demand will continue to support Turkish exports in the forthcoming period (Figure 6). Moreover, recently improved relations with our neighbors have also started contributing to the export growth again after a long stagnation period. Recently, there is some slight recovery in exports to our main major trading partners such as Iraq and Russia. The recovery process is expected to continue throughout 2017. Overall, we anticipate a sizeable contribution from exports to growth in 2017. Figure 6.