samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This past year, many countries in Latin America - other than the major oil exporters - faced the further shock of a worsening in their terms of trade, as commodity prices declined in the wake of the crises in Asia and Russia. However, a number of countries in Latin America have begun to see a resurgence of growth, following sharp falloffs in 1998. As we look ahead to the next decade, I am convinced that many of the developments we have witnessed over this past decade have greatly widened the opportunities for strong growth in the years ahead. Inflation in the global economy appears subdued, fiscal deficits have been widely reduced - and we have gained a much better understanding of how solid, non-inflationary growth can be achieved. The economic and financial crises of the 1990s, while having very adverse macroeconomic implications for the countries involved, nonetheless have reinforced the importance of sound monetary and fiscal policies for all countries and the desirability of market reforms. In addition, these crises have laid the foundation for renewed attention to structural reforms for the banking and corporate sectors as well as to the need for strengthened regulatory and supervisory measures. The challenge going forward will be to execute the necessary strategies to realize these goals. When economic times are reasonably favorable, as they are now, the risk is that complacency sets in and the  BIS Review 29/2000  6  steps needed to address the more deeply rooted structural problems are harder to take.

On the other hand, Norway, like many other countries, is facing substantial fiscal challenges. Financing the large pension payments that will have to be disbursed in the coming years will be very demanding. Final remarks To sum up, Norway has a market economy and a large government sector. The way in which economic policy is oriented today reflects the knowledge gained and the lessons learned. We know from experience that fiscal policy alone cannot ensure a high level of employment. The structure of the labour market and wage formation are probably of greater importance. The direct regulation of credit, interest rates and capital movements collapsed and was phased out in the 1980s. Price regulation no longer plays a role as a macroeconomic instrument. The scope of business policy has become more general. 4  BIS Review 22/2006  The most important contribution monetary policy can make to sound economic developments in the long term is low and stable inflation. Low and stable inflation has contributed to solid growth in the global economy in recent years. Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 22/2006  5
It is therefore, critical that improvements are made in the quality of real estate sector data to enhance analysis and policy response to developments in this sector. There is no doubt that the rate of inflation is still too high in Zambia compared to some of our neighbours, like Tanzania, Botswana, and Mozambique. However, I wish to assure you that lower rates of inflation are within reach given Government commitment to fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability. It is a well established that high inflation (that is, above ten percent) is a cost to economic activities. This happens through: 1. Increased investment costs. High and persistent inflation adversely affects savings mobilization in the economy because savers would opt to hedge against inflation. Ultimately, this leads to a reduction in the availability of loanable funds and investments. In addition, high inflation is normally associated with high interest rates and high interest rates inhibit borrowing for investment purposes, thereby slowing down economic growth and the development process;  2. Rising prices erode the public and investors’ confidence in the economy and contribute to rapid exchange rate depreciation. This leads to currency substitution or dollarisation, which in turn, reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy;  3. Rising prices also undermine the country’s external competitiveness, which may lead to a decline in export earnings, thus, worsening the balance of payments position of the country; and  4. Rising prices entrench poverty through the erosion of peoples’ incomes, particularly those on fixed incomes.

My discussion therefore, is structured as follows: i. First, I will look at the contribution of the Zambian real estate sector to gross domestic product (GDP) in Zambia. During the discussion of this issue, I will also look at the characteristics of the Zambian real estate finance sector; and  ii. Secondly, I will explain the role of the Bank of Zambia in the real estate sector. Ladies and Gentlemen In Zambia, the share of the real estate sector has increased from an average of 6.8% between 1995 and 1999 to 9.4% between 2000 and 2004. This is a welcome development, as it shows that real estate business has been contributing positively to real GDP growth over the last six years. However, I strongly believe that the sector can perform even better than this, especially that most of our people have no good and affordable accommodation, as evidenced by emergence of large unplanned residential areas. This is a challenge for you experts in the real estate business to facilitate the building of more houses and office accommodation to reduce rentals for these facilities to affordable levels and stem the expansion of unplanned residential areas. In spite of the growth in the share of real estate to GDP, the Zambian real estate finance sector is still characterized by inadequate long-term finance. Prior to 1990, the sector was dominated by the Zambia National Building Society (ZNBS), which following the liberalisation of the economy in the 1990s, is unable to meet the demand for real estate finance.
I am also convinced due to the successful cooperation between the two institutions so far, which was proved as very effective in preventing the occurrence and spreading of counterfeit money in the territory of our country, and because of our readiness to continue to tackle the challenges in this segment of our work in future, as well. The commitment of the National Bank to move safely along the way to the European System of Central Banks, constantly following European standards and practices and promoting all segments of its operations, is one of the main strategic goals. That’s why I assure you that with the same level of professionalism and commitment that we approach other challenges, we approach also to the implementation of this Project, giving our maximum contribution in the implementation of the activities that will have to follow after it is finalized. We sincerely hope that soon after the country’s admission to the EU, the integrity of the euro will be protected along with the integrity of the domestic currency. Actually, that is the reason that the Law on the National Bank already incorporates provisions that regulate the tasks and powers of our institution from the date of our country’s accession to the European Union, as well as the tasks and powers that we will have after the introduction of the euro as a national currency. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  Hence, this project and its success are perceived as a long-term key investment in a significant segment of our operations.

In the long run, this project will simultaneously be an investment for improving the operations not only of the National Bank and the Ministry of Interior, but indirectly also of other institutions that are actively involved in the system for fighting counterfeiting money: the Customs Administration, the Financial Police Office of the Ministry of Finance, the Public Prosecution Office and the judicial authorities. I believe that after the implementation of this Project, our interinstitutional cooperation in the field of monitoring and prevention of counterfeiting banknotes and coins will be further developed. I believe that very soon after the completion of the project activities, we will jointly state and announce that our national system for fighting counterfeit is at a higher level, compatible with the systems of the EU member states. At the end of my speech, I would like to emphasize that I am pleased that our twinning partners in this Project are two older EU member states – Germany and Austria. Having in mind that they are direct participants in policy making, overcoming all the challenges associated with the euro since its introduction twenty years ago, I believe that in communication and cooperation with their experts we will gain knowledge that will be of great benefit for us in the process of strengthening our capacities.
30  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  30  Chart 9: Model simulations of the housing market  Chart 10: The distribution of house prices Percent year on year  30 25  Real house price growth  20 15  Simulation  10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -20  30  80  130  180  Number of years Source: Baptista et al (2016). Notes: Blue is the list price index, red the house price index and green the number of years a house is on the market. Please see the speech website for the animation. Source: Baptista et al (2016); Hills, Thomas and Dimsdale (2016); Bank calculations. Notes: The blue diamonds show the distribution of simulated house price growth for over 160 years from the model. The red diamonds show the distribution of real house price growth between 1847 and 2015. This same approach can also be used to examine the impact of various macro-prudential policy measures, whether hard limits (such as an LTV limit of 80% for all mortgage contracts) or soft limits (such as an LTI cap for some fraction of mortgages). These policies could also be state-contingent (such as an LTV limit if credit growth rises above a certain threshold). As an example, we can simulate the effects of introducing a loan-to-income (LTI) limit of 3.5, where 15% of mortgages are not bound by this limit.

[4] IMF, October 2020, “World Economic Outlook.” [5] The World Bank [6] Dealogic  https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2021/riding-the-growth-momentum-in-asia  9/11  12/02/2021  "Riding the Growth Momentum in Asia" – Keynote Speech by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director (Markets & Development), …  [7] McKinsey & Company, June 2020, “Asia Wealth Management Post-COVID-19: Adapting and Thriving  in an Uncertain World” [8] They are Singapore (#3, $ Hong Kong (#4, $ Japan (#5, $ [9] MAS 2019 Asset Management Survey [10] The Asian Bond Grant Scheme, which ran from 2017 to 2019, has attracted a diverse pool of Asian  companies to issue bonds in Singapore, tapping multiple currencies including USD, IDR, INR, AUD and SGD etc. The ABG scheme has successful catalysed more first-time bond issuances in Singapore, with a more than doubling of our first-time issuance volume. Average annual volume from first-time issuers has doubled from $ billion (2014-2016) to more than $ billion (2017-2019). [11] The Global-Asia Bond Grant Scheme covers issuers that have (i) global headquarters in Asia; (ii)  business operations or are engaged in projects in Asia; or (iii) the intention to issue Asian local currency denominated bonds. The scheme supports up to 50% of issuance-related expenses for issuances of at least $ subject to a funding cap of $ for rated issuances and $ for unrated issuances. There is a higher funding tier for jumbo-sized bond issuances where they can receive up to $ or $ for rated or unrated issuances respectively.
Exchange rate certainty within Europe - even though it is nominal certainty rather than real exchange rate certainty - would potentially enhance the benefits to be derived from the European Single Market. The euro’s second very powerful advantage is the possibility it opens up for much broader and more liquid financial markets. It will mean a progressive narrowing of spreads between borrowers and lenders - and that will be good news too for financial intermediaries as a group, because it will lead to higher volumes of financial activity - though not every individual intermediary will benefit, of course, in the more competitive environment. The City of London is already making an important contribution to this process of financial euro-market integration. So there are potentially powerful advantages. What then are the risks - the possible arguments against our joining the euro? Essentially the potential downside can be summed up as the risk that the single - one-size-fits-all – short-term interest rate within the Eurozone - which is the inevitable consequence of a single currency - will not in the event prove to be appropriate to the domestic monetary policy needs of all the participating countries. Countries may have divergent cyclical positions. They may face divergent fiscal positions which would affect their appropriate fiscal/monetary policy mix in different directions - though this should be contained by the Growth and Stability pact.

But we also learned to pay more attention to the structural, supply-side capacity of the economy and in particular to the role of reform - and deregulation, subject to appropriate safeguards, of goods, capital and labour markets, as the means of increasing the economy’s flexibility and the underlying rate of growth that can be sustained. We learned finally that these twin approaches - of macroeconomic stability and supply-side reform reinforce each other. It is these understandings that lie at the heart of our present economic policy framework. On the macroeconomic side, the Government has enacted legislation which requires it to set out transparent rules for fiscal policy. For the current Parliament it has chosen to adopt two specific rules. First, over the economic cycle, Government borrowing will be restricted to borrowing for investment, and not to fund current spending; and Secondly, net public debt as a proportion of GDP will be kept at a prudent and stable level over the economic cycle. These rules taken together are designed to ensure financial stability in the medium-term, but also allow for automatic stabilisation in response to fluctuations in output growth in the short-term. On the monetary side, the Government has set a low, symmetrical target for underlying retail price inflation as the objective of monetary policy; and it has devolved technical responsibility for setting short-term interest rates to achieve that objective - on average over time - to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England.
‘Climbing the property ladder’ has become a concept in metropolitan areas The property market contributes to substantial distributional effects in society. 14 Those people who own or have owned their home, the insiders, have benefited from the rapid rise in prices on the housing market. In step with these price rises, they have been able to realise gains upon the sale of their homes, which has allowed them to purchase increasingly expensive homes. This, in turn, has pushed up prices further. In addition, households that own their homes have benefited from the taxation system. The home can be seen as a low tax capital investment and, ultimately, also as a kind of pension saving. Similarly, the conversion of rental properties to tenant-owned properties has brought major profits for tenants able to buy their own homes. It is said that people can ‘climb the property ladder’, which is to say earn money on owning their home – a concept that has become common, particularly in metropolitan areas. Thus, there have always been major economic gains to be made by people who have owned their homes and been able to take advantage of price increases. For a large proportion of households, housing has contributed towards an increase of their capital assets, which is reflected in the distribution of wealth.

Out of the total, only a small part of the SDR allocation  BIS Review 120/2010  5  will benefit countries which may effectively need to use them. More may be needed to substitute for national foreign exchange reserves as a permanent insurance mechanism. Contingent liquidity The search for new liquidity sources meets with an inescapable moral hazard problem. On the one hand, to be equivalent to reserves going forward, multilateral liquidity must be available ex ante and without condition. On the other, there is a danger that fully unconditional liquidity be used to deal with fundamental “solvency” imbalances. In real life, this is not an easy distinction to make. The dilemma is solved, at the domestic level, by the provision of eligible collateral. This may prove very uneasy for international liquidity: transferring ownership of substantial amounts of sovereign assets between countries or to international institutions would meet with huge legal and political difficulties. This is the rationale for conditionality. But, of course, conditionality creates an uncertainty which is incompatible with the purpose of instant supply of liquidity. A conditional facility will never be a perfect substitute for reserves. Many countries fully eligible to the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) have used foreign swaps instead. Anecdotal evidence suggests that swaps are often perceived as carrying less of a stigma effect.
The evidence suggests that, so far, borrowing has not risen above its long-term trend, and the average debt-to-income and debt-to-financial burden ratios are stable. Along the same line, households’ past-due portfolio indicators have tended to stabilize in relatively low levels during the past year (figure 11). In the present scenario, however, we need to continue to closely monitor the evolution of household debt. If it continues to grow at the current pace, it is possible that households’ debt and financial burden will increase significantly in the face of a more severe risk scenario. Finally, and considering the deterioration of the financial indicators of the lowerincome households in the period 2007–2009, they could find themselves in a situation of greater financial vulnerability. Although the volume of debt of these households is fairly limited, it could prove substantial for some credit providers focusing on lower-income segments. Problems in international financial markets have caused a widespread rise in the banks’ external financial cost. Meanwhile, no reduction in volume or maturity of external credit for this sector is observed. (figure 12). The banking system has maintained a looser liquidity position since late 2008 – thanks to increases in longer-term liabilities and greater liquid assets. As stated in our Financial Stability Report, our banking system has the capital levels needed to absorb the materialization of a severe risk scenario.

You probably remember that last year, when we completed the asset quality review, this was a topical issue. No problems were found in this sphere, but we did know that some issues needed to be resolved. The new legal amendments help us make a step forward in this direction. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  A global development that we should mention and that will affect every one of you is the beginning normalisation of the leading central banks’ monetary policies. This coincides with a period of economic recovery both nationally and internationally. We will enter a new cycle of increasing interest rates. This is not going to happen overnight. The process is expected to run smoothly and to become more ostensible in 2019. This immediately raises the question of the actions that we all have to take to manage credit risk and regarding expense policies. Let me briefly outline what we are doing with regard to non-performing loans. Over the last two years the improvement in this area is considerable indeed. At the end of 2014 the portion of these loans was around 17%, now it is around 11%. Only a couple of days ago we sent the banking association a draft of guidelines on the continuation of this trend. We expect to receive your views on these guidelines so that we can finalise them as soon as possible.
We should respond with a “better” Europe, less distracted by details, more focused on its priorities and more efficient. There is no point in just talking about it, we must take the necessary measures to achieve concrete results. There are, of course, non economic areas such as defence, border security, climate change and youth education and training, to mention just a few. But in economic matters, there is also a lot that remains to be done. We in Europe have three major assets: our single currency, our single market and our common European social model. I wish to stress the extent to which this “soziale Marktwirtschaft” is a response to the questions raised in the Anglo-Saxon world. Germany, like many other European countries, proves that economic success can go hand in hand with social welfare and less inequality. Now is not the moment to haul down the European flag: it is time to build on our assets more actively, including by achieving a better economic union, which I spoke of earlier. I wish to add a few words about Brexit. It is not something we wanted and it is obviously bad news, first and foremost for the United Kingdom and its economy. I note that the victory of Brexit 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  has brought the official growth forecast for Britain down to below that of the euro area, at only 1.4% in 2017. Our priority is to manage the consequences as smoothly as possible and reduce uncertainty as much as we can.

François Villeroy de Galhau: Euro area monetary policy and businesses Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft, Munich, 26 January 2017. * * * I am very pleased to be here with you and wish to thank you for inviting me. It is the second time in recent months that I have had the pleasure of visiting Bavaria. In September, here in Munich, I had the great honour of receiving the Montgelas prize, presented by Minister Erwin Huber, in remembrance of one of your great statesmen. If I may add a personal note, I am here as a committed European and a friend of Germany. I am French but my roots are in Saarland where my family has lived since the end of the 18th century and where its porcelain manufacturing company Villeroy & Boch forms part of the German “Mittelstand”. I feel close to your country and admire its success, particularly that of its business enterprises. Bavaria illustrates this success. It is currently one of Europe’s major economic centres. I will also have the pleasure later of meeting Dr Theo Waigel, who, alongside other German political leaders, has played such a key role in the construction of our solid common currency, the euro. Our growth forecasts for the euro area are for growth of 1.7% in 2017, the same as in 2016. This confirms the economic recovery, which is good news, but the situation is not yet satisfactory.