samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
3/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  Supporting adherence While the above reasons provide a strong foundation for the Code to succeed, the success of the Code will depend on widespread adherence by market participants. Hence, we should each ask ourselves what we can do to support adherence. There are three key elements in the adherence framework developed by the FXWG, which can support adherence at both the individual firm and industry levels. First, the Code has to be embedded into your practices. Training and education of staff will be particularly important to effectively embed the Code. There are ongoing initiatives at the firm level, and the industry should consider if there are system-level initiatives that could make sense. For example, industry associations could consider developing relevant training content that caters to specific segments of the FX market e.g. buy-side players or corporate treasuries. Second, there should be effective monitoring on how successfully the Code has been embedded. To this end, a number of adherence mechanisms have been developed to facilitate effective monitoring. For example, at the system level, the GFXC will use a broad survey of market participants to monitor adherence and adoption. The survey will take place annually and the first survey will be conducted in 4Q this year, to form the baseline for monitoring progress. At the firm level, we expect that mechanisms will be put in place to monitor how the Code has been embedded within internal practices.

With the introduction of the Stock and Bond Connects, the cross-boundary infrastructure linkages between the clearing houses of the two markets have become the critical foundation on which cross-boundary transactions can be efficiently cleared and settled. The Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) operated by the HKMA is now linked to the Mainland central securities depositories (CSDs) on the one hand and the international CSDs (ICSDs) on the other. We have embarked on a multi-year enhancement programme to modernise the system to enable CMU to perform all functions required of an ICSD. Operating window will be expanded; a wider spectrum of corporate action services will be offered; and the system will enable the CMU to directly provide collateralised lending and FX services to nonbank participants. 19. Apart from these three factors, i.e. liquidity, product and infrastructure, which are essential to building a vibrant RMB offshore market in Hong Kong, I should add that supervisory collaboration is also important in this gradual opening-up process. Many of the initiatives to promote the international use of RMB will involve the opening up of the Mainland’s capital accounts. This must be done in a gradual and risk-controlled manner, which is why you often see quota and eligibility criteria in the initial stage of the Connect schemes. This kind of risk-control features requires the close collaboration between the HKMA and our Mainland counterparts. Through such collaboration, we seek to ensure that Hong Kong is a safe and reliable platform to take forward these new cross-boundary initiatives. 20.
& food Other service Arts & recreation Construction Education Transp. & storage Admin. & support Distribution Manufacturing Extraction Health Professional, etc Info. & comms Electricity Agriculture Water Financial Real estate Public admin. & def. 0  -20  -40  -60  -80  -100  Sources: ONS and Bank calculations. Note: Data to April 2020. This sharp contraction in economic activity has been accompanied, unsurprisingly, by a sharp fall in working hours. Globally, it is estimated that hours worked in Q2 were almost 11% lower than prior to the crisis, equivalent to over 300 million full-time workers.5 The IMF forecast that the advanced economy unemployment rate will double this year to over 8%. And the ILO estimate that the crisis could increase unemployment globally by anywhere between 5.3 and 24.7 million people.6  In the UK, employment data to April from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) does not point to a sharp contraction so far. But other, more timely, labour market indicators suggest a sharp fall in employment. Claims for Universal Credit have risen by 2½ million since mid-March and administrative data from HMRC point to a large rise in joblessness. Claimant count measures of unemployment have risen by around 1½ million since the start of the year. In addition, over 9 million jobs are estimated to have been furloughed as part of the Government’s Job Retention Scheme.7 A further more than 2.5 million self-employed workers are claiming income support.

GDP over 2020 held fixed at end-2019 level to prevent fall in output leading to denominator effect. Dotted line extends series to mid-2020, assuming completion of current asset purchase programme and further TFSME drawings. These figures reflect the June MPC minutes, which noted that lending under TFSME “was likely to exceed £ billion over the coming year.” For simplicity we assume the TFSME reaches £ at end-2020. 20  19  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  19  Chart 17: Bank of England balance sheet relative to government net debt Per cent 60 Banknote convertibility to gold reinstated Banknote convertibility to gold suspended  South Sea bubble  Amalgamation of Treasury and Bank note issues  Covid-19 crisis  50 Failure of Lehman Brothers  40 WW1  WW2  30  20  10  0 1700  1750  1800  1850  1900  1950  2000  Sources: Bank of England (available here), OBR, ONS and Bank calculations. Note: Debt figures calculated on a fiscal year end basis. Red diamond shows end-2020 Bank of England balance sheet (consistent with Chart 14), relative to OBR projection for government net debt (excluding public sector banks) for FY 2020/21. These balance sheet actions by central banks globally have had their intended effect, improving financial and credit conditions to support households and businesses (Chart 18). Despite being tighter than at the start of the year, financial conditions have loosened significantly since mid-March.
My point is that the Fed needs to examine and perfect the transmission mechanism under its purview just as intensely as it looks at monetary policy per se. And we must be ever-mindful that the central bank cannot carry the load alone, as Chairman Bernanke and others of us have often said. Indeed, there is great danger in any temptation to do so. A recent Economist article aptly summarized my perspective on this as follows: “Above all, there is a moral hazard in central-bank activism. It risks encouraging governments to sit back and let others do the work that they find too difficult themselves.”2 If I believe further accommodation or some jujitsu with the yield curve will do the trick and ignite sustainable aggregate demand, I will support it. But the bar for such action remains very high for me until the fiscal authorities do their job, just as we have done ours. And if they do, further monetary accommodation may not even be necessary. With that, I’ll stop. And in the best tradition of central banking, I’d be happy to avoid answering any questions you might have. 2  6  “The World Economy: Central Bankers to the Rescue?” The Economist, Aug. 13, 2011. BIS central bankers’ speeches

So it is very helpful that the EMI Council decided with our encouragement in September to ‘welcome and support’ harmonised market conventions on the basis proposed by the market associations. We also welcome the EMI Council’s decision in September to prepare for the computation by the ESCB of an effective overnight reference rate for the euro area. There remains however a good deal to be done everywhere -- in co-ordinating price sources, for example, as methods of redenomination. But in all of these respects London is well up with the game. Conclusion Mr. Chairman, it is sometimes suggested that a perceived threat to its activity if we were “out” will cause the City to press for early UK membership of EMU, and that this will be an important factor in the Government’s decision. I am bound to say that I see very little sign of this. Certainly there are those in the City who advocate our early participation, but there are equally those who are more hesitant -- just as opinions are divided elsewhere within the country. But for the most part, my impression is that City attitudes to EMU, whether for or against, reflect a broader assessment of the respective pros and cons for the country as a whole rather than strong views about the implications for the City in particular. On the whole I find that City opinion is relatively optimistic about its future prospects, “in” or “out”.
Global systemically important financial institutions have been identified and are being subject to higher capital requirements, more intensive supervision, and resolution planning. Evaluating the impact With the rule-making largely done and implementation generally making good progress, it is time to evaluate the impact of the regulatory reforms. The FSB is developing a framework to do this, focusing on two key questions: effectiveness – are the reforms achieving their intended outcomes? effects – what are their broader social benefits and costs of the reforms? This work is especially important in the current context. First, the regulatory changes of the last eight years are substantial, especially when taken cumulatively. It is incumbent on us as regulators to be accountable for these changes, to evaluate objectively their intended outcomes as well as any unintended consequences. Second, with memories of the crisis fading and the compliance burden of new regulation continuing to grow, pressures have begun to mount to unwind some of the reforms. Any adjustments to be made should be grounded in an objective assessment of the impact of the reforms. How effective have the reforms been? The preliminary assessment is encouraging. Large banks are now stronger, more liquid, less leveraged, less complex. Derivatives markets are safer, with central clearing covering more than 90% of OTC derivatives trades in 14 major jurisdictions. The financial system as a whole seems more robust and more resilient.

Tharman Shanmugaratnam: Taking charge of your financial wellbeing Opening address by Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the MoneySENSE 10th Anniversary Roadshow, Singapore, 19 October 2013. *  *  *  Good afternoon Members of the Financial Education Steering Committee, and everyone who has come to Toa Payoh hub for one reason or another. Please enjoy the shows and exhibitions which we have planned, that are all aimed at helping Singaporeans to manage their money better. 2. We all know that managing money is important, regardless of your income level. You may be low, middle or high income, but managing your money is very important for your quality of life. Research supports this, but we all know from our own family members, friends, and colleagues at work – that it is not just how much money we make but how we manage, spend or share our money that determines how satisfied we are. Financial Literacy Survey 3. MoneySENSE commissioned a Financial Literacy Survey earlier this year, which shows that Singaporeans are generally quite careful with their finances.1 80% of Singaporeans save some money each month and 86% of people do not like taking on debt. Many people take on loans because of housing, but they don’t like to borrow more than they can comfortably service with their income. 4. But there are some people who over-spend and over-borrow, which we find in every society, and Singapore as well.
Page 3/5  Our country has one of the most solid currencies in the world, namely the Swiss franc. No other currency has retained its value so well since the outbreak of the First World War. Nor has any other country kept average inflation lower than Switzerland. But there is another side to this coin. In times of high uncertainty, the Swiss franc tends to appreciate strongly, putting the economy under pressure and jeopardising price stability. We have witnessed this again recently. As a result, the SNB has been faced with the challenge of using its monetary policy to guarantee price stability in Switzerland. With the negative interest rate and our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, we are able to counteract the attractiveness of Swiss franc investments. Our goal here is always to ensure appropriate monetary conditions in Switzerland. In general, an overvalued Swiss franc can pose a problem for the financial industry too. This is especially true for the important business of wealth management, where returns mainly accrue in foreign currencies, while costs are generally incurred in Swiss francs. We are, of course, also aware of the challenge that the negative interest rate poses to the financial sector. We have therefore reduced the burden it places on the Swiss banking system to the level necessary for the implementation of monetary policy. Once again, I must also stress that the low interest rate environment is a global phenomenon with structural causes. This is unfortunately not something that Switzerland can escape.

For example, the price of hand soap in a pump dispenser is lower than the equivalent quantity in a refill package: http://www.nettavisen.no/okonomi/privat/article373382.ece. 23  According to the economist Stephen Quinn, secure central bank money triggered a spate of financial sector innovations. The central bank could offer notes with little risk regarding liquidity and public acceptance. On the other hand, notes were costly to use – an example is the considerable interest payments forgone when large amounts are held in cash. With the monetary system firmly anchored, private participants could offer more cost-effective payment solutions: deposit accounts, giro transfers, clearing and cheques. This system rested on confidence in central bank money. (Quinn, Stephen F., and William Roberds. 2005. “The Big Problem of Large Bills, the Bank of Amsterdam and the Origins of Central Banking.” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper 2005–16). 24  Large-value payments between banks are settled continuously in Norges Bank. See also Lerbak, Marie N. (2013): “Om pengemengden” [On the money supply], Norges Bank Staff Memo no. 14. 25  A characteristic of money as a means of payment is its anonymous nature. Before the use of money became common among ordinary people, payments usually took place in connection with commercial transactions, whether for goods or services, via networks from which it might be difficult to extricate oneself. The farmer was usually indebted to a town merchant, which resulted in dependency and an obligation to deliver a portion of his produce.
Your thoughts and comments will reflect the unique valueadded of the ESRB: to bring policymakers together to exchange expertise and coordinate policy action, with the common aim of reducing the risk of financial crisis. On that note, I am pleased to open this first annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board. 1 Pagano, M., S. Langfield, V. Acharya, A. Boot, M. Brunnermeier, C. Buch, M. Hellwig, A. Sapir, I. van den Burg  (2014), “Is Europe overbanked?” ESRB Advisory Scientific Committee Report no.4. 2 Becker, B. and V. Ivashina (2014), “Cyclicality of credit supply: firm level evidence”, Journal of Monetary  Economics, 62: 76–93. 3 Langfield, S. and M. Pagano (2016), “Bank bias in Europe: Effects on systemic risk and growth”, Economic  Policy, 31(85): 51–106. 4 Levine, R., C. Lin and W. Xie (2016), “Spare tire? Stock markets, banking crises, and economic recoveries”,  Journal of Financial Economics, 120(1): 81–101. 5 European Central Bank (2015), “Report on financial structures”, October. 6 Summers, L., “US economic prospects: Secular stagnation, hysteresis, and the zero lower bound”, Business 3/4  BIS Central Banker's Speeches  Economics, 49(2). 7 For an analysis of the sensitivity of US banks’ pre-provision income over one year to changes in short-term  interest rates, see M. Gomez, A. Landier, D. Sraer and D. Thesmar (2016), “Banks’ exposure to interest rate risk and the transmission of monetary policy”, ESRB Working Paper no.13. 8 Cœuré, B.

Jessica Chew Cheng Lian: Evolving governance, risk and control in the digital age Welcoming remarks by Jessica Chew Cheng Lian, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Conference on “Governance, Risk and Control in the Era of Disruption”, Kuala Lumpur, 9 December 2019. * * * Dr. Firas Raad, World Bank’s Country Manager for Malaysia, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen. Good morning and welcome to Sasana Kijang. Bank Negara Malaysia is delighted to host this Conference on Governance, Risk and Controls in the Era of Disruption. Let me begin by sincerely thanking our joint host, the World Bank Group for working with us to put together a rich programme that speaks directly to issues that I am sure are keeping at least some of us awake at night. In the year 2000, the English author and academic, Sir Malcolm Bradbury wrote this: “We no longer live in the Age of Reason. We don’t have reason, we have computation. We don’t have a tree of knowledge, we have an information superhighway. We don’t have real intelligence, we have artificial intelligence. We no longer pursue truth, we seek data and signals. We no longer have philosophers, we have thinking pragmatists. We no longer have morals, we have lifestyles.” This rather grim view of the world was written almost two decades ago. Since then, the extent of technological change and disruption that has come to define our world gives these words a significance that few could have imagined.
It is the responsibility of the editors of journals to verify the black box and assure quality on behalf the general public who consumes the outcome of research studies. It is, therefore, disheartening that learned journals have published such papers without due reference and consideration of the methodology adopted in conducting the research under reference. Today, of course, with advanced statistical packages available, it is possible for the editors of the journals to check on the appropriateness of the statistical calculations made by the paper writers. Since the ordinary readers of scientific papers are unable to gauge the wrongful way of handling econometrics by researchers, such studies by editors before papers are published become all the more important. In view of the gullibility of general readers, the misuse of econometrics in learned papers is akin to “misselling” that one finds in the market place when a seller has not fully apprised a buyer of the risks of buying a product. This type of mis-selling by researchers could be termed “econometric dishonesty” which they are not supposed to practise. Researchers find a truth and not the truth The real world is vast and complex. Hence, it cannot be mapped out by scientific research adequately, just like neurologists are unable to map out the human brain completely. What  4  BIS Review 161/2008  the science does is to discover only a flint of the truth in the vast real world.

BIS Review 161/2008  3  The use of techniques and technology It has been fashionable for scientists to make use of scientific techniques and technology to facilitate the decision making process, when undertaking scientific inquiries. Extreme care should be exercised by scientists in this instance. Every technique has its own methodology and limitations and the scientist should be fully aware of same when such techniques are used. Inappropriate use of the techniques or wrong conclusions made on the basis of the results derived amount to misuse of science by the researchers. It also paves way for crafty individuals to use the results to their advantage and gullible individuals to get victimised. The use of econometrics has been one of the techniques employed by scientists to prove or disprove their hypotheses. This has also been one of the sources of misuse of science, either because wrong calculations are made or wrong conclusions are arrived at, due to the failure of the researcher to analyse the error term appropriately. Wikipedia, the cyberencyclopaedia, is full of the instances of such misuse of econometric methods in research. It is noteworthy to refer to two studies done by Deirdre N McCloskey and Stephen T Ziliak of the University of Iowa on the status of econometric studies in research articles published in the reputed journal American Economic Review in 1980s. They have found fault with authors for not analysing the error term properly and using the statistical term “significance” inappropriately.
While pursuing our primary objectives of safety and soundness and policyholder protection, we also have regard to a number of important considerations, including the competitiveness of the sector and the contribution it can make to long-term economic growth. We are also mindful that as part of its review of the Future Regulatory Framework, the Government has proposed to give the PRA a new secondary objective to promote long-term economic growth and international competitiveness, alongside our existing secondary competition objective. With all of those factors in mind, we think we can deal with the risks we are worried about while also supporting the government’s wider objectives. Specifically, some in the insurance industry have the impression that we are opposed to any release of capital requirements for insurers. I want to be very clear that that is not the PRA’s position – indeed, following a lot of work and examination of the evidence over the last year or so we think that a substantial capital release should be possible while continuing to protect policyholders adequately.

The word “expect” is doing more work in this sentence than you might have appreciated. In working out what returns firms should expect to receive from their assets, it is necessary to make assumptions about how many of those assets will go bad – for instance, how likely is it that a company in whose bonds an insurer has invested will go bust and stop paying interest? Or how likely is it that an insurer will get into trouble, be forced to sell its asset for less than it originally paid and recognise a loss? Due to these possibilities it would obviously be wrong to recognise all the returns on assets upfront, because some of them will not materialise – at the very least these need to be deducted. Under the MA this is done in a mechanical way, based on returns and losses experienced in the past. The problem with this approach is simply that expected losses based on averaging the past may or may not be a good guide to the future. [4] There are plenty of examples in finance and elsewhere where the past has not proved a good guide to the future – recent moves in some commodity markets is a topical example, and the performance of subprime US mortgages in the financial crisis is another which illustrates the serious costs that can be incurred when we get this wrong.