samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
That is well above the trend rate for the past 20 years, of just over 2%. Employment has increased by 1.2 million over this period, while unemployment has fallen almost month by month, on the familiar claimant count measure, from a peak of over 10% in 1993, to some 4.7% now. That is the lowest rate for 18 years. Meanwhile retail price inflation (on the Government’s target measure) has averaged around 2¾% - that’s the lowest for a generation. There’s not much evidence here that low inflation inevitably means low growth and employment. But, of course, we started this period with demand below capacity - with a fair amount of slack in the economy which we were gradually taking up. By last year it had become clear, in the evidence of rising capacity utilisation and of growing tightness in the labour market, that unless we acted to moderate the growth of demand we were at risk of overheating. That’s why we tightened policy over last summer - to slow things down before inflation took off - and to head off a subsequent recession. And although, as I say, you can never be sure - economic forecasting is a very uncertain business - a necessary slowdown rather than a more serious recession is what we think we’re seeing, and, as I understand it, that is what your own General Council thinks too. Our problem in slowing the economy down has been enormously complicated by the increasing imbalance between the domestic and the internationally-exposed sectors of the economy.

We need to avoid a repeat of the 1997 Russian default, where Russia received a programme of aid, everyone expected it to work, but the needs turned out to be much bigger two months later. There is also a very rapidly increasing risk of citizens running on Greek banks as well as a rocketing risk of some other EU/eurozone country’s voters producing an outcome that will, in addition to other more likely and more profound consequences, further complicate finding a solution to the technical issues, i.e. how to structure the debt restructuring. To conclude, this is a crisis whose causes lie in eurozone institutions, which we were assured were created – together with the eurozone itself – to prevent crises. Without further close involvement of eurozone institutions, including the ECB and eurozone member states, it will most probably result in a disorderly meltdown of at least some European economies. On many levels, including the level of European institutions, the crisis was caused by incoherent and/or insincere communication, which increased the uncertainty of market participants in the broad sense. Our country’s history tells us that a generally predicted loss of a currency fix has much lower costs (including political ones) than an unexpected one. If eurozone countries and EU institutions opt for “safe” Greek membership in the eurozone, they must present a solution that is broad, generous and general enough to convince the markets of its credibility. This solution had better come fast, though, as muddling through has significant economic costs and increases the risks dramatically.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Strengthening economic structures and fundamentals Statement by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Joint Annual Discussion of the Boards of Governors at the 2005 World Bank-IMF Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 26 September 2005. *  *  *  As we strengthen our global relationships, there needs to be greater engagement with the entire spectrum of member countries. If we are to achieve a more balanced global growth, greater stability in the global financial system and significant progress in the fight against poverty, there needs to be greater appreciation and understanding of the global issues from the perspective of the emerging and developing economies. In the current environment, the risks to global growth have increased, presenting us with an even more challenging environment to achieve these goals. Should the trend of higher oil and asset prices, and rising interest rates continue, their combined effect could diminish the near-term global growth prospects. In this environment, appropriate policies are vital to ensure that any moderation in growth does not evolve into a fundamental economic slowdown. While countries have strengthened their resilience, international cooperation becomes important in addressing these issues. At the national level, widespread reform efforts have intensified. These have been reinforced by regional initiatives. Of equal importance are reforms at the international level.

Development of education and health is an important part of the Millennium Development Goals. The IFIs also need to assume a greater role in encouraging the developed nations to invest and create job opportunities in the Heavily-Indebted Poor Countries and other poor nations as a long-term plan to assist lowincome countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Finally, we share the view that the legitimacy, credibility and effectiveness of the Fund and the Bank hinges on the degree to which its representation reflects the relative significance of its respective membership. The 13 th General Review of Quotas represents an important opportunity to ensure that all members, especially the developing and emerging economies, have an adequate representation in the institutions that is consistent with their relative positions in the world economy. It is important for voices from this constituency of the emerging and developing world to not only be heard but to be listened to. We look forward to the commitment of the international community in preserving the fundamental, core principle of equality in the governance structure of the Bretton Woods Institutions. This greater engagement within the international community will contribute to increasing the prospects for a greater shared global economic prosperity. 2/2
(b) LCF survey data scaled to match National Accounts (excluding imputed rental income, income received by pension funds on behalf of households and FISIM). LTI ratio is calculated using secured debt only as a proportion of gross income. (c) Repeat cross-section methodology used, with no controls for other factors, or how households may have moved between LTI categories between 2007 and 2009. Chart 3. UK banks’ sterling write-offs on (a) lending to individuals  Chart 4. Household debt to income ratio and (a) consumption growth over 2007-12 Adjusted consumption growth 2007-12, Per cent  10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6  United Kingdom  -8 -10  0  Sources: Bank of England and Bank calculations. (a) Write-offs of sterling lending by UK MFIs to UK individuals. Write-offs are net of recoveries. Non seasonally adjusted. (b) Consumer credit consists of credit card lending and other unsecured lending (other loans and advances) and excludes student loans. (c) Lending secured on dwellings. 100 200 300 Household debt to income in 2007, per cent  400  Sources: Flodén (2014) and OECD National Accounts. (a) Change in consumption is adjusted for the pre-crisis change in total debt, the level of total debt and the current account balance. See Flodén, M. (2014), ‘Did household debt matter in the Great Recession?’, available at http://martinfloden.net/files/hhdebt_supplement_2014.pdf. 17  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  17  Chart 5. GDP distributions through time, conditional on composite indicators of indebtedness and asset prices  Chart 6.

Public and private partners are involved in this undertaking — they formed a consortium composed of the Rzeszow University of Technology, other technical universities, a group of aviation industry enterprises called “The Aviation Valley” and the Polish Aviation Institute”. Globalisation influences the perspectives of the world’s major economies. In the USA, the discussion on relocation of jobs to the Asian countries became a lively element of political debate during the last presidential elections. Similarly, in Europe a debate is underway concerning the future of the single services market. There is no doubt, however, that any solutions of regulatory or protectionist nature may hinder all these changes only temporarily, as they are inevitable. The countries, whose politicians will understand the mechanisms of the global economy and will implement necessary reforms to improve the investment climate, will benefit the most from the globalisation processes. Entrepreneurs should also keep a sharp lookout on the globalisation processes currently underway, in order to respond to the emerging threats in a timely manner, but - first of all - in order to benefit from the great opportunities that they create. Thank you very much for your attention. 8  BIS Review 19/2006
Let me share a few thoughts on some of the current issues which have a bearing on Asia’s growth and the global environment ahead. Rising global food prices The first, and perhaps most pressing issue that the world faces, is spiraling inflation. Global food prices have spiked in the recent months due to a confluence of factors. Demand has increased to feed a growing global population with a rapidly expanding middle class in the developing Asian countries. This demand is compounded by competing uses for food sources to generate biofuel and feed. Meanwhile, sources of supply have been hit by rising energy costs, increased competition for arable land, and the erratic weather. As a result, prices of many food commodities including wheat, corn, and rice, a staple for all Asians, have soared. The United Nations has declared the drastic increase in food prices “an unprecedented challenge of global proportions” and established a task force to tackle the food crisis. This is indeed a global issue and cannot be resolved overnight. Many of these factors are structural and will take time for the demand-supply equilibrium to be established. On the Asia Pacific front, the Asian Development Bank has recently announced $ million of immediate budgetary support to help countries that have been worst hit by rising food prices. With increasing food prices and high oil prices, mitigating the impact of strong inflationary pressures will remain a key priority for many Asian governments.

If EU regulation and internationally agreed standards diverge materially, it will both create barriers to that activity and opportunities for regulatory arbitrage making it more difficult to ensure UK financial stability. My third example is the European Supervisory Authorities – the European Banking Authority (EBA), European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) and European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA). These were established to provide more detailed common rule making so that the EU Single Market in financial services could be supported by a common rule-book underneath the framework of high-level legislation. This search for more detailed alignment of regulation and standards has I think been a general feature of the post crisis reforms in the EU and more widely. The ESAs are governed by their boards, comprising national supervisory authorities, which are also responsible for the majority of their financing. They set and advise the Commission on the rules and standards – they do not engage directly in the prudential supervision of firms. The European Supervisory Authorities perform another important function. I have talked about common rules, commonly applied. There are of course enforcement mechanisms in the Treaties to ensure member States properly observe the EU legislation. But the need for this in financial services has been especially recognised with the ESAs having the capability to conduct peer reviews and for binding arbitration when one national authority believes another has not properly implemented or applied the rules. This is a powerful mechanism to prevent regulatory arbitrage and the risk of adverse spillovers between member states.
These projections, which do not appear to be overly optimistic given the figures – published on Monday – for the decline in unemployment and the rise in Social Security registrations in March, highlight the need to continue pursuing policies geared to boosting competitiveness, investment and exports, the only foundations suitable for sustainable job creation. Price developments in 2015 and 2016 will be greatly influenced by oil prices. Consumer prices might fall by 0.2% on average in 2015, and rise by slightly more than 1% in 2016. Stripping out the energy component, consumer prices are expected to rise modestly, in line with the scenario of growing household expenditure, the lessening of surplus capacity in the economy and the depreciation of the euro. The risk of deflation appears to have been clearly averted in the Monetary Union and, consequently, in Spain. Recent monetary policy conduct Let me turn now to recent monetary policy conduct. Monetary policy in the euro area has been progressively adapted to medium- and long-term inflation expectations, in a setting marked by the weakness of economic growth in the area. The armoury of instruments used by the ECB includes conventional or standard measures – such as interest rate movements and the provision of liquidity in its ordinary refinancing operations – together with non-standard or extraordinary measures, among which the setting of negative interest rates on the discount facility, and long-term liquidity-provision and assetpurchase programmes. The need to keep the deflationary risk at bay, i.e.

Lucas Papademos: Presentation of the ECB’s Annual Report 2008 to the European Parliament Introductory statement by Mr Lucas Papademos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, to the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs Strasbourg, 21 April 2009. *  *  *  Madam Chair, Honourable members of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, It is a privilege for me to present to you the Annual Report of the European Central Bank (ECB) for 2008. This presentation is an essential element of the ECB’s democratic accountability and is therefore of the greatest value for us. In my introductory remarks, I will first briefly review the economic and monetary developments over the past year, present our current assessment of the macroeconomic outlook and explain our monetary policy decisions. I will then focus on a number of topical policy issues, in particular those pertaining to financial stability and supervision. But before doing so, I would like to highlight some important events that have taken place over the previous 12 months. Last year the ECB, and at the beginning of this year the euro, celebrated their tenth anniversaries. We can look back at the past ten years with pride, and we can justifiably say that the euro has been a success. We have delivered a stable and credible currency that enjoys the confidence of now 329 million fellow citizens in 16 EU countries.
The rate of inflation decrease will depend on further developments and changes in the economic situation. The attempt to reduce the inflation at any cost would obviously be a short-sighted strategy. When taking a decision on the key rate we always consider the balance of risks of inflation acceleration and slowdown in economic growth. This balance changed considerably at the turn of 2014–2015. For most of 2014 the balance of risks was shifted towards inflation acceleration. Economic slowdown was primarily of structural nature and did not have considerable impact on prices. Meanwhile, inflation expectations were growing. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The situation aggravated in 2014 Q4, because the fall in oil prices and the need to make large external debt payments amid almost inaccessible international capital markets led to considerable ruble depreciation. This in its turn resulted in higher inflation expectations. Demand of households and businesses for cash and non-cash foreign currency surged up. It threatened to heavily accelerate inflation and destabilise financial sector. It was important to bring these processes to a halt and we decided to raise the key rate dramatically to 17% p.a. The rise of the key rate was followed by the increase in bank deposit rates that managed to stop the outflow of funds from ruble deposits and pegged down their dollarisation. Our foreign currency REPO and lending operations also helped normalise the situation in the foreign exchange market.

Elvira Nabiullina: Recent Russian economic developments and Bank of Russia’s forecast Statement by Ms Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Bank of Russia, in follow-up of Board of Directors meeting, Moscow, 13 March 2015. *  *  *  Good afternoon! Today the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to reduce the key rate from 15.00% to 14% per annum. This decision takes into account the following main factors. First, the latest data on the economic situation show that the balance of risks remains shifted towards the weakening of the economy rather than acceleration of inflation. January data and February leading indicators, primarily business sentiment indices, indicate that the economic situation continues to deteriorate and this trend may persist until 2016 Q1. Seasonally adjusted unemployment fell to 5.0%. It should be taken into consideration that the Russian labour market traditionally adjusts, at least at the first stage, through wage rates and part-time employment, whose dynamics is indicative of lower demand for labour. At the same time, shrinkage of consumer demand will have a downward pressure on inflation. Second, monthly inflation slowed down considerably in February following the surge in late December-January. And weekly March data indicate that this process continues. The current high level of annual price growth is explained by the supply-side factors – decline in the ruble exchange rate and imposed trade restrictions. These are one-time factors, and in case there are no new considerable shocks their impact on monthly and quarterly inflation will decrease over the next months.
16  Figure 9  Currencies (1)(2)(3)  Nominal 10-year rates (1)(2)  Stock markets (1)(2)  102  35  110  98  0  105  94  -35  100  90  -70  95  (index, 2.Jan.23=100) U.S. Eurozone 106 Latin America Chile  (diff. w/respect to 2.Jan.23, basis points) (index, 2.Jan.23=100) U.S. U.S. Eurozone Eurozone 70 115 Latin America Latin America Chile Chile  Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 (1) Dotted vertical line marks 7 March 2023. (2) For Latin America, considers simple average for Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and Peru. (3) An increase (decrease) indicates a depreciation (appreciation) of respective currency. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Bloomberg. Figure 10  Growth forecasts for selected economies (annual change, percent)  6  2022 (e)  2023 (f)  2024 (f)  5 4 3 2 1 0  United States  Eurozone  China  Trading partners (*)  (e) Estimate. (f) Forecast. (*) For definition, see Glossary. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

However, the lower growth of our trading partners will gradually reduce the external demand faced by Chile, which will be more noticeable from the second half of this year onwards (table 1). The Chilean financial market has followed the global market trends. Particularly, the local fixed-income market showed important drops in the rates of sovereign bonds, in addition to allowing the placement of bank and corporate debt. While these developments are positive, it is important to note that the depth of the Chilean capital market has been significantly reduced in recent years. For the same reason, a relevant 5  factor for the resilience of the Chilean economy is to ensure that this market is not affected again. Projections In the central scenario, headline inflation is projected to continue to decline in the coming quarters and to converge to the 3% target in the latter part of 2024. Inflation will end 2023 at 4.6% annually, that is, one percentage point higher than we estimated in the previous MP Report. This correction originates in the higher levels of inflation of recent months —particularly its core component—, the slower adjustment of consumption, and the output gap taking longer to close. In this scenario, core inflation outpaces the previous estimate and will reach annual variations in the order of 3% only by the end of the projection horizon (figure 11). For 2023 and 2024, our projections considers a real exchange rate that, on average, is lower than estimated in December.
Svante Öberg: The Swedish economy and monetary policy Speech by Mr Svante Öberg, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Öhman Fondkommission, Stockholm, 30 May 2006. * * * “On 27 April, I and my colleagues on the Executive Board of the Riksbank decided to hold the policy rate unchanged at 2 per cent, on 11 May the minutes of the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting were published and on 19 May we published a description of the monetary policy framework. These events provide the basis for the speech I will give today," began Mr Öberg. “At the meeting on 27 April we agreed to hold the policy rate unchanged. This decision was based on the inflation assessments presented in the Riksbank’s Inflation Report in February and the new information on economic developments received since then. Underlying inflation was expected to approach 2 per cent, but to be below this figure during the forecast period. The forecast is based on the assumption of gradual increases in the policy rate,” said Mr Öberg. “However, the decision to hold the interest rate unchanged was not self-evident. Some of us expressed the opinion at the meeting that there was reason to consider an increase as early as April. I was one. I would like to take this opportunity to elaborate on my reasoning. This is in the light of the document we published on 19 May regarding the monetary policy framework,” continued Mr Öberg. “The Riksbank conducts what is known as flexible inflation targeting.

While the financial aspects are important, we should inspire our young recruits on the underlying values of the industry and capitalise on the noble objective of providing protection and managing risk for our people. Takaful for example, is built upon the spirit of brotherhood, solidarity and mutual assistance which provides for mutual financial aid and assistance to the participants. Drawing talent that shares the same values will ensure commitment and support talent retention in the industry. When the general public interact with the industry, with highly motivated staff, it will sow confidence and consequently trust. Refrain from making false promises, make clear the terms and conditions up front In building trust, a huge responsibility lies now on intermediaries playing their role, as intermediaries’ behaviour mirrors the image of the insurance and takaful industry. Many consumers are not well versed with insurance and takaful terminology and will rely on the advice rendered and the full disclosure of the policy terms and conditions. This low degree of familiarity with insurance and takaful terms makes it even more crucial for the full disclosure of the terms and conditions governing a policy. An important consideration is the role of intermediaries being the ‘first point of contact’ with the public. Intermediaries create an impression, powerful enough to influence a customer’s decision whether or not to engage in an insurance contract.