samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
While the US is more advanced in the de-leveraging process, the debt-overhang will be a drag on growth in both regions well into 2012. Dealing with such deep-rooted problems require tough, unpopular, actions at the fundamental level. A critical challenge is in justifying these actions to an increasingly skeptical public. Thus the implementation of the required policies is just as hard, if not harder, than coming up with the solution. The political risks involved in all this is a key source of uncertainty that we must be mindful of. While global financial markets in recent months appear to be coping better with this nagging uncertainty, we are definitely not out of the woods. And the risks are much compounded  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  given the limited room for additional monetary and fiscal stimulus remaining in the advanced economies. Looking closer to home, the rising contribution of Asia to the global economy is reassuring. Despite the slowdown in exports on the back of a softer global economy, domestic demand in many Asian economies remains robust. The expanding role of China and ASEAN’s commitment towards economic integration will offer vast economic opportunities for the region. However, as will be discussed later, taking advantage of such opportunities will neither be automatic nor easy. The key challenge for Thailand is to make sure that we harness the opportunities and incentives generated by this process to achieve fundamental restructuring of our economy and raise our potential growth. On that note, let me turn to the domestic challenges.

Threats to the global outlook began to intensify, driven primarily by the euro sovereign debt crisis and signs of continued fragility in the US economic recovery. Domestically, the devastating floods in the fourth quarter of last year caused severe disruptions to our agricultural and manufacturing industries in affected areas. With upside risks to inflation deemed to be contained, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed that there was room to address the heightened risk to growth and the policy rate was reduced by a total of 50 basis points over two meetings. The current rate of 3.00 percent was judged to be accommodative for domestic recovery as well as supportive of long-term economic stability. This is the story up to now. While the overall environment is improving, one cannot afford to be complacent. The events over the past few years has reminded us that things that seem under control can get out of hand very quickly. So, let me take you farther down the road of 2012–2013. I would like to focus on two key issues. The first concerns future challenges facing Thailand. The second then addresses the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s policy focus, going forward. First, on the challenges. On the external front, uncertainties surrounding the global recovery remain substantial. Major advanced economies are still grappling with structural weaknesses in their economies. Most prominent is the substantial debt-overhang. In the euro area, this is mainly in the form of sovereign debt. In the US, the problem lies primarily with private sector debt.
In the second phase, conventional banks with the appropriate firewalls in place were permitted to offer Islamic financial products and services. As this window operations achieved a critical mass, the option to transform these operations into Islamic subsidiaries represents the third phase of development. And finally as capacities were enhanced, liberalisation allowed for the international integration of our domestic Islamic banking system in the fourth phase of the development. The first phase of development of Islamic finance in Malaysia started in 1969 with the establishment of an Islamic savings institution known as the Pilgrim Fund Board, or Tabung Haji, as the first Islamic financial institution in Malaysia. Its objective is to mobilise savings of Muslims intending to perform the pilgrimage and to channel the funds to permissible investments according to the Shariah principles. As awareness of Islamic finance increased, a full-fledged Islamic bank was established in 1983 when Bank Islam, the first Islamic bank was established under the Islamic Banking Act. The Government Investment Act was also enacted in 1983 to allow for government investment certificates to be issued to facilitate the Bank's liquidity operations. As part of the long term objective of developing a comprehensive Islamic financial system operating side-by-side with the conventional banking system, a year after the establishment of Bank Islam, a takaful or Islamic insurance company was established under the Takaful Act to provide the coverage for Islamic financing.

Given these responsibilities, the banking institutions therefore need to play their role effectively and efficiently to contribute to the overall stability of the financial system, and the growth and development of the economy. Visioning for the Islamic banking system In charting the future development of the Islamic banking system, due consideration would therefore need to be given to the role of the banking system in the economy. The ultimate goal is to enhance wealth creation, and promote sustainable and balanced economic growth. The vision is, therefore, to develop a progressive and robust Islamic banking and financial system, rooted in the Islamic core values and principles, that best serves the needs of our economies. By indicating the destination in the journey, to developing the Islamic banking industry, the Master Plan would provide a road map to drive convergence towards the common vision among countries in the development of an Islamic financial system. While collective efforts can be directed to achieve this common vision, consideration needs to be given to the stage of development of the respective economies. In particular, the expected role that the banking system needs to fulfill can be identified accordingly. This could range from the development of an Islamic banking system to efficiently intermediate funds in the economy, to having in place a sophisticated Islamic banking and financial system that is internationally integrated and that is in itself, an engine of growth.
I would like to conclude my speech by quoting Bill Gates: “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction”.3 The Banque de France tries to heed this warning. Although we do belong to the (very) “old world” – the Banque de France was created more than 200 years ago by Napoléon –, as any incumbent, we need to adjust and adapt to the “new world”. In order to do so:   we have adapted our organisation and governance with the creation of a Fintech hub within our supervisory function (which has supported more than 300 Fintechs), the appointments of a Chief Digital Officer and a Chief Data Officer, and the launch of a Lab to foster innovation within the Banque.   We experiment with new technologies: the Banque de France was the first central bank to implement a full-scale project based on DLT which is fully operational 4 and we successfully run eight artificial intelligence projects.   We also host discussions between regulators, academics and the industry: the latest working group on artificial intelligence will deliver its conclusion by end of this year. But this call for action is addressed to everyone, and especially to you, the next generation.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Enhancing financial integration in the new Nusantara Luncheon address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Malaysia-Indonesia Investment & Finance Summit, Jakarta, 18 June 2007. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen: There has been a long history that transcends several centuries in which international trade flourished in the Malay archipelago . The South East Asia region contained the important maritime routes for the trade between the East and West. This had brought with it, robust economic growth and regional prosperity. Today, the South East Asian region – the Nusantara region continues to be one of the world's most dynamic regions. Since the turn of this century, our economies have re-emerged to be amongst the fastest growing in the global economy, amidst new challenges and fundamental economic and financial developments. Our steadfast reform and restructuring efforts have rewarded us with strengthened macroeconomic fundamentals and sound and stable financial systems. These efforts continue to be augmented by the strong the foundations that the region possesses, namely abundant natural and human resources, high savings rates and the ingrained aptitude to persevere and rise to the challenge. The ASEAN 5 group of economies that includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore have now for an extended period of time been on a steady growth path. A more recent phenomenon in this decade, has been the increased economic and financial linkages within the region spurring further regional economic and regional financial integration.
Figure 17 Real exchange rate (*) (index, 1986=100) 120  120  110  110  100  100  90  90  80  80  70  70  88  92 RER  96  00  Average, 1991-2010  04  08  Average, 1996-2010  (*) Information at 28 March 2011. Source: Central Bank of Chile. BIS central bankers’ speeches  15

In line with Malaysia’s aspiration to be a leading international Islamic financial hub, flexibility is granted for nonresidents to raise ringgit through issuance of sukuk in Malaysia as part efforts to attract higher level of foreign participation and promote diversity of market players and products in the Malaysian Islamic financial markets. The sukuk market now accounts for more than fifty percent of our bond market and has drawn participation from a wide range of international corporations and multilateral agencies in raising funds and investing in sukuk issuances out of Malaysia. BIS Review 151/2010  3  Myth 5: FEA rules are restrictive on accessibility to ringgit offshore by foreign investors for settlement of their investments in Malaysia Many may not have realised that since 2007, non-residents have been allowed to access ringgit offshore through any appointed overseas branches within the same banking group of the onshore banks to purchase or sell ringgit on a spot or forward basis based on firm underlying commitment for investments in ringgit assets. This was to maximise the potential and seamless opportunities through the widening of international investors’ participation into the Malaysian capital market. As onshore banks, you should capitalise on these opportunities to reap the benefits and at the same time, contribute to the enhancement in the development of the domestic financial market. These FEA rules were also designed to facilitate investment by foreign companies into the real sector. It is our intention that the FEA rules will facilitate and ease foreign investment into the country.
They do not, for example, cover how the supervisors of the large EU banks active in London will cooperate with the UK supervisory authorities to  8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  8  provide assurance about the risk being imported into the UK. Or how the EU authorities – at European and at member state level – will manage the pooling of EU risk in the global markets of London. We have a good basis on which to build. Most obviously we leave the EU with the same legislation and regulation – ‘equivalence’ at the starting point of this new relationship should not take the regulatory authorities on either side very long to establish. The Financial Policy Committee of the Bank of England has made clear that it is committed to maintain a level of financial sector resilience that is at least as great as that currently planned, which itself exceeds that required by international standards. On the supervisory side, the Bank of England has over the last 18 months signed 30 MoUs with EU and EU member state authorities covering pretty much all aspects of financial sector activity. The Financial Conduct Authority has done likewise. The issue therefore is not the starting point but how our regulatory frameworks and supervisory practices and cooperation will develop over the future. The UK has been very heavily involved and instrumental in the development of the EU regulatory framework. That will no longer be possible.

Governance of EU-UK Financial Interconnectedness And that brings me back to the subject of the governance of international finance – the way in which jurisdictions can gain the assurance about the import and export of financial sector risk necessary for their economies to benefit from the efficiency, opportunity and risk management offered by financial globalisation. For the last 30 years or so the governance for cross border financial activity within the EU has been increasingly provided by the legislation, regulation and institutions of the single market in financial services. For the UK, this will continue for another 11 months. But after that we will need new ways to provide the governance for the deep financial connections that will continue between us. The progress in stronger international governance frameworks that I have described provides the basis for that. The development of international standards, of the norms for cooperation, the machinery for scanning and assessing risks and for generating common approaches, provide for mutual assurance in a way that was not possible in the past. We will be able and will need to build on that basis. Some of this may come through the ‘equivalence’ regimes present in some EU legislation, regimes that will initially at any rate be mirrored in UK legislation as we start with the EU acquis on-shored into national law. But those regimes cover only a part of the cross border connections.
This monetary policy stance has meant that long-term interest rates in the advanced economies have held at very low levels, while very generous pricing in certain financial markets has been the case. Indeed, some prices are at all-time highs, in a setting in which  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  investor yield search appears to be playing a predominant role compared with other considerations based more on the fundamentals of these assets. This scenario on international money and financial markets poses risks, as it is likely to undergo abrupt changes in the face of expectations emerging over the withdrawal of monetary stimuli or, what comes down to the same, of expectations over sustainable improvements in growth rates that advise less expansionary monetary policies. Developments in and outlook for the Spanish economy In the course of 2013 the Spanish economy showed a degree of dynamism and, from the third quarter onwards, positive GDP growth rates. This trajectory has continued into 2014, meaning that the year might finalise on a path in line with the forecast forwarded in the Spanish Economic Projections Report published by the Banco de España in March, that is to say, with annual average growth of 1.2%. This recovery has also been discernible in the labour market. The pace of job destruction slackened in 2013, until showing slight job creation in the closing months of the year. The improvement has progressively strengthened to date in 2014.

The fiscal adjustment drive has been most significant, as shown by the structural primary balance (the cyclically adjusted balance, excluding interest payments), which posted a correction of 1.2 pp of GDP. 2013 was the first full year of application of the mechanisms of the Budgetary Stability and Financial Sustainability Law approved in 2012. Moreover, measures were taken to improve the sustainability of public pensions (the sustainability factor and revaluation index). Private-sector deleveraging and bank lending To conclude this section, I will refer to the correction of private-sector overindebtedness. The Spanish economy’s cyclical position suggests, along with past experience, that several quarters of economic growth will still be necessary before lending at the aggregate level resumes positive growth rates. However, there were actually signs of an improvement in this connection in 2013. Since mid-year, lending to companies has been shrinking at increasingly lower rates, a change which has begun to be discernible also in the case of households since early 2014. The more disaggregated analyses conducted by the Banco de España support the idea that the contraction in debt at the aggregate level is proving compatible with a shift in the mix of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  debt towards those companies in a sound position which are, therefore, better placed to channel funds to new investments that translate into more growth and more employment. Spanish banking sector I will now refer to the position of and outlook for our banking sector.
It is this aspect which has become the focal point of recent attention for Hong Kong. Hong Kong's flexibility In fact, Hong Kong exhibits very considerable flexibility of the sort required. This is not a characteristic shared to such a degree by many other economies. Comparisons have often been drawn with Argentina because of, until recently, its currency peg. The charts below compare various indicators for Hong Kong and Argentina. The timescales are set to align the sudden loss of competitiveness by Hong Kong in late 1997 because of the Asian crisis, with the sudden loss of competitiveness by Argentina in early 1999 as a result of the Brazilian crisis and devaluation of the real. Attention is drawn in particular to the comparison of developments over the subsequent months (to the right of the vertical divide). The first chart shows the levels of consumer prices. Hong Kong experienced much more significant price deflation, with the absolute price level falling almost 10% from its peak in the first two years after the shock, while in Argentina prices fell only 3-4%, even looking at a somewhat longer period. A more appropriate measure of internal costs and prices is the GDP deflator. This fell by some 10% for Hong Kong but was roughly static in Argentina.

The strained financial situation in the public sector would seem to indicate weak employment growth for at least the coming year, while the economic upturn will probably only lead to a relatively small increase in employment in the private sector. There is, of course, a risk that the weak labour market will affect households' expectations and consumption propensity; a risk that we pointed out already in December and which may have been reinforced. The higher the rate of unemployment, the more caution households will probably show when purchasing and consuming. This could in turn lead to a risk of lower growth during 2004. All in all, the view of the demand situation in Sweden remains essentially the same as in December; demand will increase and approach the economy's long-term sustainable level. Lower domestic cost pressure The relationship between unit labour costs and inflation is usually fairly clear. Thus, when we made a downward revision to the figures for unit labour costs in December, it was not entirely insignificant for the inflation forecast. The background was primarily the signs we saw of an improvement in productivity growth, combined with a weaker labour market. I shall return to the subject of productivity in more detail in a moment. With regard to wage developments, the wage bargaining rounds are currently a central issue. Their outcome will have great significance for the rate of wage increase and thereby also to a large extent for inflation in coming years.
While the number of foreign banking organizations operating in the US has contracted over the last decade, the overall importance has grown. Foreign banking organizations now account for 45 percent of total banking assets in the United States, up from around 40 percent a decade ago, and they account for a substantial share of total securities underwriting in this market. Our framework for supervision and regulation is supportive of innovation. Much of the most transforming innovations in finance started in our markets or were adopted more quickly and more broadly here than in many other financial systems. The U.S. system, relative to the model in many other countries, has involved a continuous, risk-focused process of supervision and a strong enforcement mechanism working alongside the supervisory community. In addition, we have traditionally assigned a more important role to market discipline, importantly through a strong disclosure regime, in reinforcing the supervisory regime, than has been the case in other markets. Our system is successful in matching capital with ideas, in allocating savings to where returns are highest, in creating opportunities for households to better withstand the costs of change and dislocation that are inevitable offshoot of an open and dynamic market economy, and in spreading risk to where it can be best absorbed. The high degree of competition and flexibility that characterize our approach helps drive the pace of innovation, both in new forms of financial instruments and in new ways to manage risks. No financial system, of course, is without vulnerability.

Timothy F Geithner: The changing face of risk management Remarks by Mr Timothy F Geithner, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, before the Institute of International Bankers, New York, 9 June 2004 *  *  *  It is a pleasure to join you today for this meeting of the Institute of International Bankers. The financial institutions you represent play a major role in our financial system. The IIB has played an important part in shaping financial policy in the United States, by reminding us with force and persistence of the impact of our actions on the standards of fairness and equality of opportunity that we strive to maintain. The U.S. financial system has a number of features that help to make it attractive to participants from all around the world. The structure of our financial system is characterized by a diversity of channels for financial intermediation, with a relatively larger role for the capital markets and a smaller role for banks, than is true in most other major economies. And we have preserved, despite substantial consolidation, a system that comfortably accommodates the largest globally-active financial institutions side by side with a competitive and diverse array of regional and community banking organizations. We are very open to the presence of foreign financial institutions, and perhaps as important, have traditionally been very open to attracting non-U.S. financial talent to work in our markets.