samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Whether this consensus is a result of the role played by Spanish economists, as Enrique Fuentes set out to demonstrate in his major work published by the Real Academia de Ciencias Morales y Políticas, will be something for historians to decide. I would, however, venture to say that in the economic debate in Spain heterodox positions, or those furthest removed from the central strand of current economic thought, are relatively marginal. Concerning qualitative aspects, I have no doubt that another of the factors behind Spain's dynamism is the improved management of Spanish firms. And behind this lies a process in whose beginnings Barcelona was a driving force. I refer here to the expansion and quality of our business schools, which enjoy great prestige internationally. In the business school rankings of recent years, three Spanish institutions have systematically been in the top 30 worldwide. I would not wish to conclude this review of the factors contributing to the momentum of the Spanish economy in the past 20 years without referring to the important role decentralisation has played. Decentralisation is not free from risks - and I shall in fact deal with some that are most relevant to us but it has acted in Spain as a powerful economic, social and cultural dynamo, in a similar way to what happened in post-war Germany with the creation of the Länders. ***** Let us look now to the future.

Some infamous examples include the Bangladesh Bank incident, the hacking of ATMs in Taiwan and various other countries, Target’s credit card data breach which resulted in data of  1  over 70 million credit cards stolen, Equifax’s data leakage in which the company was fined 700 million USD, and more recently the case of Capital One Bank in which over 100 million customers’ data were leaked. Thailand is also not immune to these cyber threats. A state bank’s ATMs were hacked, customers’ data from 2 large banks were leaked on the Dark Web, and the WannaCry ransomware outbreak. In addition to attacks on financial institutions, customers’ behavior and lack of cyber threat awareness also pose significant cyber risks as well. Social media scams through LINE or Facebook Messenger in which attackers pretend to be the victim’s acquaintance, asking for a favor to transfer money; or users’ submitting their bank account information to questionable, illegal gambling website from which their data eventually got leaked a few weeks prior are some examples of cyber-attacks that hinge on the user’s inexperience or lack of awareness of online threats. As such, I don’t think it is an over exaggeration to say that cyber threats have kept many bank executives and regulators awake at night given the nature of these threats that can occur anytime and anywhere without warning, and the significant damage they could cause.
Luis de Guindos: Interview in La Vanguardia Interview with Mr Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, and La Vanguardia, conducted by Mr Manel Pérez and published on 12 April 2020. * * *  What is your assessment of the global economic situation in the midst of this coronavirus crisis? The global economy will enter recession and so will the European economy, albeit an even more severe one. The ultimate fall in GDP will depend on how long the lockdown lasts. International bodies have calculated that the economy will shrink by 2% to 3% for each month of lockdown. So one and a half months would be around 5%. Three months would be double that. Do these calculations also apply to the Spanish economy? Spain had an advantage at the start of this crisis – it was seeing growth that was higher than the average of its euro area peers. But it also had a problem – its economy is more exposed to the crisis as it is more dependent on services like tourism, which are heavily affected by the pandemic. This makes it very likely that Spain will experience a deeper recession. And coming out the other side of the crisis, what do you think the economic recovery will look like? In the euro area, the most likely scenario is that we will see some signs of growth starting in the third quarter, but we will have to wait until 2021 to see a genuine recovery in economic activity.

It’s also crucial because it complements, on the one hand, the fiscal stimuli launched by national governments, and on the other, the rapid and powerful intervention by the ECB since the start of this crisis. With all these measures now in 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  play, Europe is better equipped to respond to this unprecedented crisis. The agreement includes a generic reference to a future recovery fund that is yet to be defined. What criteria do you think it should meet? The ECB has always stressed the need for our Economic and Monetary Union to be completed in order for the euro area to become more resilient. On the one hand, we need a European deposit insurance scheme so that savings have the same protections in every country. We’ve also called for progress in capital markets so that euro area firms have access to more sources of funding. And in the fiscal sphere, we need a shared budgetary instrument that completes the monetary union. The fund that has been proposed could go in that direction, but its size and how it is funded remain open to discussion and will depend on future decisions by governments. In any case, the determination to present a shared response is very significant, because it is a strong political signal, and also a strong signal to the markets. Spain started the debate when it too voiced its opposition to the use of the ESM.
GDP in the USA and in the euro area Index 2007 Q4 = 100 115  115 USA  110  110 105  105  Euro area  100  100  95  95  90  90  85  85  80  80 75  75 00  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  4. Inflation Annual percentage change 6  6  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  USA  -2  -2  Euro area  -3  -3 00  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  Note. Data are updated with new outcomes after publication of the July Monetary Policy Report. Sources: National sources  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  5. GDP growth in Sweden Annual percentage change 6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4  -6  -6 80  85  90  95  00  05  10  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  6.

As more instruments that transfer risk are added to the balance sheets of financial institutions, so leverage and connectivity  2  BIS Review 70/2006  grow. While some of these connections might constitute a "perfect hedge", they can leave the system more vulnerable to both counterparty risk and the liquidity of these markets. The precise extent to which market participants are now connected through interlocking obligations is difficult to gauge, but the UK interbank market provides some clues. Over 70% of the total lending in the market is accounted for by 15 institutions. And the major UK banks’ large exposures to the main foreign-owned LCFIs are almost two-thirds of Tier 1 capital. The rising correlation between the share prices of major UK banks and foreign-owned LCFIs also provides a hint of the growing interconnections (Chart 4). At the same time, rapid innovation in new financial instruments poses challenges within the financial system. As I have already discussed, these developments are likely to be positive in the long run, allowing market participants greater scope to diversify and manage risk. But in the short run, newer products, such as structured credit derivatives, do pose challenges. We simply do not have experience of how they behave in the full range of market conditions. The models that have been built by banks and other players in the market to value and hedge positions in these instruments are more sophisticated than ever before, but they are not proven in adversity.
The upward inflation reflected the improvement of economic activity, but its undershooting continues to reflect the operation of the economy below the potential, the low level of inflation in trading partner countries, as well as the strong exchange rate. I would like to focus on the last item – the exchange rate. The appreciation of the Albanian lek over the last two years has been at the focus of the Bank of Albania, as a result of a comprehensive impact of this factor on the overall economic and financial indicators, including inflation. Our analyses show that the appreciation trend of the exchange rate reflects the improvement of fundamental factors, such as narrowing of the trade deficit and of the current account deficit, high levels of foreign currency inflows in the form of foreign direct investments, and the improved confidence in the national currency in the domestic financial market. For as long as such appreciation reflects the effect of stable economic and financial factors, it does not lead to harmful consequences for the Albanian economy. However, its effects appear in the form of reduced inflationary pressures in the domestic market. The appreciation of the Albanian lek is estimated to have reduced the inflation rate for 2017 by 0.2-0.3 percentage point. In the context of the not-yet-complete utilisation of production capacities and of low inflationary pressures, the Bank of Albania maintained the direction and intensity of the monetary stimulus unchanged over 2017.

In the summer of 2001, in the run-up to the launch of euro cash, the National Bank held talks with over 100 Swiss companies and associations querying them on their expectations in connection with euro coins and banknotes as well as their experiences so far with the euro as deposit money. Last summer, i.e. well over half a year after the introduction of euro cash, the National Bank conducted another similar survey. The purpose of this second survey was to gather information on the first experiences made with the new euro cash in Switzerland. The questions focused on the euro as a means of payment in tourism and in retail trade. In addition, export companies were again questioned as to their handling of the euro as deposit money. In this connection, the National Bank was particularly interested in the prevalence of the euro as a billing currency as well as the treatment of the foreign exchange risk. As had been expected, the introduction of euro cash did not lead to a sharp increase in payments made in foreign currencies. In the majority of the businesses we visited in the tourism sector and in retail trade, payments currently made in euros are approximately on a par with the ones formerly made in the original European currencies. Guests who stay for a very short period (overnight) pay in euros most frequently. The same applies to some tourists from the United States and Asia who make only a short visit to Switzerland during a tour of Europe.
And this process is very much an automatic one which does not require the exercise of discretion on the part of the HKMA. There is no active foreign exchange market intervention as such, and certainly no money market operations for recycling Hong Kong dollars sold to the HKMA when there is capital outflow; or sterilization of Hong Kong dollars passively provided to the market by the HKMA when there is capital inflow. Even until now, after we have been operating such a system successfully for over fourteen years, this technical strength of our exchange rate system and the important technical distinction from other fixed exchange rate systems are still not very widely appreciated. But I cannot really blame the uninformed. Perhaps we have not done enough to keep them informed on these admittedly rather esoteric monetary issues. 20. And the situation is not helped by ourselves also armed with the usual central banking armoury of being in a position to exercise discretion to influence monetary conditions in the interbank market by virtue of the fact that we run the interbank clearing system and therefore also serve as the lender of last resort in facilitating day to day interbank clearing. There has been some concern that the HKMA might then be subject to political influence to exercise discretion and use the central banking armoury to create money in order to relieve the interest rate pain and in the process undermine the credibility of the currency board arrangement itself.

The total value of our external trade in goods and services in a year is equivalent to well over 250% of our gross domestic product (GDP). 4. Businessmen engaged in these externally oriented economic activities would I am sure be acutely conscious of the currency risk arising from the many international transactions that they enter into. They would obviously prefer clarity and predictability in the exchange rates of the domestic currency against those currencies to which their business is exposed. They would, I am sure, prefer fixed exchange rates over floating exchange rates, unless they are in the foreign exchange business in which case it is understandable that they would prefer the greater volatility that comes with floating exchange rates. It is of course an uneasy feeling that profits might be eroded, or for that matter enhanced, by volatile exchange rates. One simply cannot plan one’s business ahead properly with such volatility. Under the circumstances, prudent businessmen have no alternative but to hedge their currency exposures at considerable costs. It would clearly be beneficial for those conducting externally oriented business if currency risks could be eliminated by a fixed exchange rate system that has credibility. I believe this is why Europe has largely been operating with fixed exchange rates, the benefits of which are so clear that we shall soon see the unification of European currencies as the Euro comes into being. And I would be surprised if some of the Asian economies which floated their currencies recently are not regretting it.
The sea and the coastal landscape are still a resource that generates jobs – albeit of a different kind today. Chart: The 500-krone banknote (reverse) The sea proved to have even more to offer the Norwegian nation. A new turning-point in our history was reached when the first barrel of oil was pumped up in 1971. In the years that have followed, the oil and gas industry has been a fundamental mainstay of the economy. Chart: From shipbuilding to platform construction For Norwegian manufacturing, the discovery of North Sea oil came at a convenient time. The shipping industry was being hard hit by the international tanker crisis. At one point, a quarter of the Norwegian tanker fleet in terms of tonnage was laid up. New shipbuilding orders ground to a halt, and workers were laid off. But shipping industry labour and real capital in the form of docks, machinery and equipment were easily adapted to the production of oil platforms and other goods and services needed in the offshore oil sector. The Norwegian business sector has made good use of the opportunities provided by the discovery of oil. The extraction of oil at extreme ocean depths required the development of new technology. The specialised expertise that has been built up has secured contracts – and not just off the shores of Norway. Offshore activity has had substantial spillover effects on other industries. An advanced oil service industry has emerged, and small local communities have been able to broaden their economic base.

Chart: From fishing to fish farming The nature of the fishing industry has also changed. The fish farming industry is one of our newest growth industries, and more than two-thirds of the supply of seafood now comes from fish farming. Through collaborative efforts in research and product development, fish farming methods have been developed to supply consumers with good-quality farmed salmon, available straight from the supermarket. But fortunately, many Norwegian consumers would say, the traditional tinned fish produced by the factory here in Lofoten for the past 100 years, is only a couple of shelves away. With rich fishing banks right outside the factory door, there is an ample supply of fresh fish. Historically, fishing in Lofoten has been an important source of income for the coastal population. The traditional fishing season at the beginning of the year still attracts fishermen from all over the country, but in numbers far lower than the up to 30 000 who used to take part. For three hectic months from mid-January each year, a variety of visitors, from fishermen and traders to watchmakers, travelling musicians and the odd snake oil salesman used to make their mark on this island community. Lofoten continues to attract visitors today – but now the fishermen’s cabins are filled with tourists. In just a few years, the number of tourist overnight stays in Nordland county has increased by 25 percent, with many visitors making the journey from faraway countries, tempted by the prospect of deep-sea fishing, sea kayaking and hiking.
Tourist arrivals declined by 8.4% in 2009 while the manufacturing industry’s gross value added fell by more than 18%. On the upside, several service activities that have expanded thanks to access to the Single Market have proved quite resilient to the global recession and their performance helped the external balance on goods and services to move into surplus for the first time since 2002. As a result, the domestic recession was less severe and shorter than elsewhere. Malta’s GDP fell by 1.9% in 2009, compared to 4.1% in the euro area, while the peak-to-trough drop in GDP is estimated to have been similarly less pronounced, 3% against 4.7%. A sharp decline in investment acted as a major drag on demand in 2009, but private consumption held up. The reduction in exports was less marked than might have been expected given the severe contraction in world trade such that, together with a steeper drop in imports, net exports contributed positively to GDP. This limited slowdown in economic activity was in turn reflected in labour market trends. The unemployment rate rose moderately in the first half of the year from 6% at the end of 2008 and has stabilized at around 7% since then. On the inflation front, consumer price trends in 2009 again did not fully mirror those in the euro area, converging only during the second half of the year when energy and food prices, which had risen sharply in the early part of the year, decelerated substantially.

While the deficit had been reduced from almost 10% of GDP in 2003 to 2.2% in 2007, it widened in the following two years and the latest projections, those of the EC, suggest that the shortfall will increase further to 4.3% this year, before declining to 3.6% in 2011. 9 These projections imply that the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2011 will stand at roughly the same level as in 2004, around 72%. These ratios are higher than those contained in the Government’s Stability Programme since the EC follows the “no policy change” rule and also because of differing macroeconomic assumptions. A credible fiscal consolidation strategy involves achieving a primary surplus that is sufficiently large to place the public debt on a stable, and eventually declining, path. For this purpose, additional measures beyond those announced in the latest Stability Programme would be required in order to comply with the recommendation under the Excessive Deficit Procedure to bring the deficit below 3% by next year. This accelerated consolidation is also necessary in view of the anticipated increase in spending on health care and pensions associated with an ageing population. Life expectancy in Malta in 2008 was 76 years and 81.1 years for men and women, respectively, and the population aged 65 or over as a proportion of the working age population is expected to rise progressively from 21.2% today to 59.1% in 2060. 10 Looking ahead, the ability of the economy to benefit from the incipient recovery in external demand through export growth hinges on its competitiveness.
575/2013 on prudential requirements for credit institutions and investment firms, which is directly applicable throughout the EU, and Directive 2013/36/EU on access to the activity of credit institutions and their prudential supervision. This latter Directive requires, in turn, national transposition. The three major avenues of regulatory reform under Basel III and their transposition to the European legislative framework, with consequences for foreign trade-related transactions, are the treatment of credit risk for solvency purposes, the leverage ratio (the ratio of topquality capital to total assets) and liquidity ratios. The discussions on solvency have been concluded, while certain aspects of the leverage and liquidity ratios remain subject to review. As regards the treatment of credit risk, Basel III recognises a lower foreign trade financing risk than Basel II. As a result, the consumption of capital in these transactions is lower than in other analogous short-term financing transactions. These changes have been transposed into European prudential regulations. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Lastly, in connection with liquidity management and supervision, the Basel Committee (and, to a greater extent, European legislation) has incorporated into the determination of the short-term liquidity ratio a specific treatment for foreign trade-related transactions with a residual maturity of 30 days or less. The potential adverse effect on the availability of financing for foreign trade derived from the obligation to maintain sufficient, quality liquid assets is thereby mitigated.

This trajectory is all the more significant when compared with events in other developed economies and, in general, in the euro area as a whole, where export shares fell during the crisis. Our sound export performance has been underpinned both by gains in competitiveness and the pick-up in external demand, as well as by more structural factors, allowing us to expect this potential to continue and become more entrenched in the long run. The structural factors include the geographical diversification of exports of Spanish goods and services to emerging markets and the more export-oriented gearing of our companies, which is reflected in the increase over recent years in the number of Spanish companies competing on international markets. The re-directing of exports towards emerging markets has contributed significantly to these developments, thanks to the substantial dynamism of the demand for imports in those BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  countries. Indeed, their dynamism has compensated for the cyclical weakness in the developed countries, particularly in the euro area. The relative weight of goods exports to emerging countries has increased since 2007, coming to account for 30% of the total. The increases have been across the board, although particular mention may be made of Latin America, China and North Africa. However, the share of the developed countries has fallen on the same scale, owing to the loss in the weight of sales to the euro area, which at end-2013 stood slightly below 50%.