In a context of more contractionary monetary policies in the developed world, the prospects for world growth have fallen again. The central scenario foresees that the U.S. and the Eurozone will enter a recession in 2023. Our trading partners will thus grow 2.1% next year (2.6% in September). Commodity prices are still expected to take a downward path from their current levels. Copper will trade at average prices of $ and 3.45 in the next two years, while oil will trade around $ in the same period (figure 14). 6  Monetary policy At our monetary policy meeting yesterday, we decided to keep the benchmark rate flat at 11.25%. We also communicated that the policy rate will remain unchanged until the state of the macroeconomy gives signs that the process of inflation convergence to the 3% has been consolidated. Monetary policy has made a significant adjustment and is favoring the resolution of the imbalances still present in our economy. Nonetheless, inflation is still very high and its convergence to the target is still subject to risks. Regarding future movements of the MPR, the boundaries of the MPR corridor that we present in this Report reflect some scenarios where the pace of the process of inflationary convergence gives way to either earlier or later adjustments of the rate compared with the assumptions in the central scenario. One important factor is the assessment of inflationary persistence, which owes to either the magnitude and sign of new inflationary surprises, or to the degree of adjustment of expectations.

A corroborative effort involving both public and private sectors, through a public-private partnership, is key, especially in Asia. This is in light of the large size of risks to be insured, the substantive size of population which needs insurance cover but remains unreachable, and the lack of natural incentives for the private sector to offer sufficient coverage for certain risks. A PPP approach recognizes the different roles as well as limitations of governments and private insurers, and can enable innovative solutions collectively. Public-private financing solutions, such as natural catastrophe insurance pools, micro insurance, and alternative risk transfer solutions such as catastrophe bonds, have the potential to enlarge the financial capacity of insurance solutions, by providing affordable cover to a wider pool. With the expertise and capital  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  support from international and regional organisations, the public and private sectors can work together in developing purposeful risk transfer solutions for the region. 12. It is encouraging that governments, regulators, industry, academia and international organisations in Asia have already taken initial steps to develop effective PPPs to enhance natural catastrophe risks management. In October last year, for example, the International Finance Cooperation (“IFC”), a member of the World Bank Group, announced a partnership agreement with MAIPARK Indonesia, a specialised catastrophe reinsurer formed by the government and industry, to develop an earthquake-index insurance product to help protect banks that provide loans to individuals and micro, small and medium enterprises from losses due to natural disasters such as earthquakes6.