samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Paul Tucker: A perspective on recent monetary and financial system developments Speech by Mr Paul Tucker, Executive Director and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, at Merrill Lynch Conference “A perspective on recent monetary and financial system developments”, London, 26 April 2007. *  *  *  Global monetary and financial stability The past year or so has been marked by resilience in both the global economy and the international financial system. World growth has been robust. On average, headline inflation across the industrialised world has remained contained. Capital markets have, so far, weathered the gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in much of the G7, and also a series of specific disturbances, without destabilising spillovers. In short, the world has enjoyed a further period of monetary and financial stability. Against that background, banks and dealers have posted fairly remarkable profits, accumulating more capital resources; and the (risk-unadjusted) returns of the fund sector – and so probably for most of you here today – have been healthy. There are, for sure, wrinkles in this picture, including here in the UK. But overall it is probably not what most commentators would have expected given that oil prices have more than doubled over recent years. For financial markets, it has surely been important that such a large cost shock has not led to a pronounced rise in global inflation, dislodging medium-term inflation expectations, and so prompting industrialised country monetary authorities to slam on the brakes.

But we have to see how this continues and develops, and whether there are some market segments that do not improve sufficiently or remain impaired. FT: But that means it will be weeks or months before you took such steps… CN: We are working on that. We will see what we feel might be necessary. FT: But if there were measures taken, they would be “credit easing” targeted a specific problems, not blanket quantitative easing in the way that the Bank of England is doing it? CN: Well the Bank of England is apparently concerned about the monetary base. But we don’t have the same problems for the time being with the monetary base in the euro area. I don’t know if it has something to do with the fact that banking intermediation in the euro area as a whole plays a bigger role than in the US or even in the UK. FT: Some of your colleagues on the governing council want to make a very clear distinction between fiscal policy and monetary policy – whereas in the UK and US they have become blurred. Does that prevent the ECB from doing QE? Would you have to go to governments first? CN: No, we have the ability to decide on the instruments that we feel we need to use to implement our monetary policy. The only thing is that of course we are attentive to the level of risks that we are taking as a central bank.
This is no easy task considering that the stakeholders often pursue differing interests. In addition, there are various potential conflicts, for example between the objective of exploiting economies of scale as much as possible – which might only be possible through cross-border cooperation – and the objective of maintaining independence. BIS Review 123/2006  3

At the international level, the IAIS work on systemic insurers and the international capital standard (or ICS) has recently made significant strides. As you know, as part of its post-crisis action plan, the IAIS developed in 2013 an identification method for systemic risks, reviewed in 2016. This led to the identification of nine global systemically important insurers, to which specific measures are applied (increased supervision, specific management plans, chiefly for liquidity, recovery and resolution, and a capital add-on measure, currently postponed to 2022). Given the recognised shortcomings of the methodology, including weak factual basis, the FSB asked the IAIS to review it with three key focuses: developing an activities-based approach supplementing the entitybased approach, which itself will be reviewed in order to correct deficiencies. A new framework is hence being developed which will make it possible to reconcile an activitiesbased and an entities-based approach, to better capture relevant risks and systemic undertakings. In the meantime, the list of global systemic insurers will remain frozen for 2019 and could be suspended beyond and until 2022, so that enough experience is gained with the new approach.
As with the other denominations, we are once again providing information in print and online, and we have of course updated our ‘Swiss Banknotes’ app. The new 100-franc note will be issued starting next Thursday, 12 September 2019, at our counters in Berne and Zurich and at the SNB’s agencies. For logistical reasons, it will take a few days before the new notes are available country-wide. And now, having unveiled the new 100-franc note, I’d like to show you the entire set. Here it is: the complete ninth series, inspired by ‘The many facets of Switzerland’. The vibrant colours and the aesthetically pleasing and intricate design of the series are particularly striking. Switzerland’s many facets are showcased using core design elements such as the hand, the globe, a Swiss location and an object, which are easily recognisable and recur throughout the banknote series. The theme of each note is illustrated via a hand gesture. On the 50-franc note, the hand is holding a dandelion, whose seeds are carried away on the wind. On the 10-franc note, a conductor’s hand sets the tempo for the orchestra. The shimmering globe reflects how Switzerland sees itself as part of an interconnected world. In the sequence of notes from 1000 francs to 10 francs, the earth rotates once on its axis and passes through one full day. The places depicted on the back of the notes are emblematic of various locations in Switzerland. Together, the six notes illustrate the diversity of our country.

And, as with all the other denominations in the new series, it is narrower and shorter than the previous note. The theme of the 100-franc note is Switzerland’s humanitarian tradition, and the key motif is water. Both are reflected in the note’s core design elements. The hand and the globe are the main images on the front of the note. The hands are scooping up water, and isobars are depicted over the globe. Page 1/3  Berne, 3 September 2019 Fritz Zurbrügg  News conference on new banknotes  The back of the note shows an irrigation channel, or ‘suone’, feeding glacial meltwater down a cliff face to the fields below. A suone is a method of transporting water from high altitudes to lower-lying areas for irrigation purposes. In the past, such irrigation channels were used for land cultivation, especially in the Valais region. The image of a suone symbolises the treatment and distribution of water – a major component of Switzerland’s humanitarian and development aid effort. The key motif also plays an important role on the security strip, which features a network of waterways over the map of Switzerland, together with a list of the country’s longest rivers. The remaining security features, such as the transparent Swiss cross or the shimmering globe, are the same as those on all denominations of the new series – you will already be familiar with these.
The modules of the programmes have been developed with extensive consultation with the industry. The framework also offers flexibility in learning, as participants can complete the modules at their own pace. Important in the offering of these programs is that there needs to be clarity in the qualification that is earned so that it avoids confusion with other qualifications offered by other centres of learning to those practitioners aspiring to gain qualifications in Islamic finance. Our resources for investment in human capital development for the industry must be optimised. This would enhance Malaysia’s potential to become a centre of excellence for education in Islamic finance. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

Zdeněk Tůma: The interrelationship between monetary policy, price stability and financial stability Speech by Mr Zdeněk Tůma, Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the European banking and financial forum 2005, Prague, 22 March 2005. *  *  *  Mr. President, Excellencies, Governors, distinguished guests, It is an honour to be opening the central bankers' forum. As the main part of the conference program concerns the financial sector challenges and opportunities in the “New Europe”, the central bankers' panel has to necessarily reflect the close, particularly topical, issue of the financial stability and its relationship to a reasonable monetary policy conduct. While my colleagues will discuss mainly the particular issues of financial stability, I, having the privilege to be the chairman of the panel, would like to frame the discussion using a more general and historical context. Bearing this perspective in mind, I would like to point to the interrelation between the ultimate goal of monetary policy, the price stability, and the financial stability. First of all, let me start with the definition of financial stability, simply assuming that price stability does not need any further explanation. To be as brief as possible, financial stability can be defined as the soundness of the financial system, that is, its resilience against various shocks.
We have always been diverse, yet connected. I recall how amazed I was when, during my first visit to Portugal, two decades ago, I realised that in two countries located at the two ends of the European Union – Portugal and Romania (which were also the extremities of the Roman Empire) – a saying about the bare necessities of life sounds almost the same in the two languages. The sentence that really shocked me was the following: “In this house with a litre of wine and a kilo of beef, one cannot be dying of hunger or thirst”. This is not an exception, though. In Spanish and Italian, a lot of words are close to the 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Romanian ones. A proof in this respect is that many Romanians have chosen to work or to live in those countries as they find it easy to adapt to the local culture and language. It’s like a home away from home. In the very heart of Rome, anybody can see Trajan’s Column, the monument commissioned by the Roman Emperor Trajan, born in Spain. It was completed in the year 113 AD and features a remarkable spiralling, sculpted bas-relief depicting the wars between the Dacians and the Romans. Trajan solved a budgetary crisis by crossing the Danube and entering Transylvania – the land beyond the forests in Latin (trans silvae) – to seize the gold of the Dacians. I wouldn’t say this would qualify as model behaviour nowadays.

And if I add that beautiful and sunny Malta became an increasingly popular holiday destination among Romanian tourists, I think I have touched on each of the 27 current EU Member States besides Romania. Let me conclude by saying that Romania is fully committed to the united Europe and to European values, but this is nothing new and is also the case with the other Member States. The need for unity of Europe is better perceived from its Eastern border, on the Black Sea coast, as we are so close to Crimea. And I want to make a call for unity in Europe and to stress that it is us who, through our decisions, shape its future. As Abraham Lincoln once said, “The best way to predict your future is to create it”. With this in mind, allow me to make a toast for a strong and united Europe. Thank you for your attention! 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
For example, FOMC minutes have a reading grade score of around 17, compared to around 14-15 for MPC minutes. Nonetheless, in common with the Bank, there is a material reading grade gap between central bank and external publications, of around 5 years with mainstream newspapers, 8 years for political speeches generally and 13 years for election campaign speeches by President Trump. They are 11 years ahead of the average Elvis song. If we look at a selection of other central banks’ English language publications, we see the same pattern. Reading scores are around 14, well above the levels of external publications (Chart 16). Taken at face value these scores are interesting, if perhaps not altogether surprising. After all, central banks occupy a technocratic space with its own technical language. Nonetheless, it is worth reflecting on the costs at which this complexity comes. For example, what fraction of the general public are central bank publications excluding because of their language? Given data on the distribution of literacy rates across the population, linguistic complexity metrics allow an estimate of that fraction. Using data from the US national adult literacy survey, we can estimate the penetration rate of various publications, central bank and external (Chart 17). 61  This suggests that a campaign speech by President  Trump is accessible to around 70% of the US adult population, an Elvis song around 60%, political speeches a little less than half and the mainstream US press when discussing monetary policy around 20%.

Yet at the moment, rates of inflation in advanced economies are trending downwards. As the recent reduction in the ECB reference rate shows, concerns about deflationary trends are more predominant in the euro area at present. Neither can any inflationary threats be identified for Switzerland. The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast from September (cf. chart 10) shows a very small increase in inflation to 2015, despite the assumption that the three-month Libor remains at zero over the entire period. Explanations for this low level of inflation include the fact that the output gap is still negative in Switzerland, the Swiss franc is strong, and commodity prices are stable or even declining. We are keeping a very close watch on price developments, and we have the necessary instruments to correctly assess any inflation or deflation risks and counter them with appropriate measures. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Concluding remarks Is a return to normal on the horizon? Yes, but much more slowly than expected. Overall, financial markets have calmed and risk markets have strengthened considerably. The exceptional measures taken by the central banks made a major contribution to these developments, and in most cases, these measures are still in place. Thus it is clear that monetary policy is still far from returning to normal. The fact that international monetary policy is still very expansionary is not surprising, in view of the slow recovery of the global economy. As far as Switzerland is concerned, the minimum exchange rate will remain a necessary instrument for the foreseeable future.
The combination of a strong exchange rate (still about 25% above its level of August 1996), a 20% fall in dollar oil prices over the past year, and an average fall of 9.5% in other commodity prices, is holding down retail price inflation. Domestically generated inflation is significantly higher than RPIX inflation. As the one-off effects of the rise in sterling wear off over the course of the next year or so - as indeed they will unless sterling appreciates further - inflation will start to rise above the target unless domestically generated inflation declines. In the long run, domestically generated inflation is likely to be close to the rate of increase of unit labour costs. At present unit labour costs are rising at about 3½% a year. The earnings figures released earlier this month - which showed that average earnings in the economy grew by 4.9% and in the private sector by no less than 5.6% - were undoubtedly disappointing. It is too soon to judge how far they reflect the impact of higher bonuses this year than last. In any event, to hit the inflation target those rates of earnings growth will have to fall back. These high levels of earnings growth are not the underlying cause of inflationary pressure; they are a symptom of a tight labour market. Equally, the prospects for earnings growth depend critically on the future path of output and on inflation expectations.

On the other hand, due to its high share in the expenditures of especially low-income households and corresponding purchasing power effects, food prices are given a great importance by policy makers. Meanwhile, the metals, such as iron ore, copper and aluminum, are among the most important raw materials for the industry and construction sector. The reason why commodity prices have been frequently attracting attention is the current fluctuations in commodity prices of a magnitude that has not been seen since 2007. Price of brent crude oil, which was USD 50 per barrel in early 2007, climbed to USD 145 within one and a half year. Then, parallel to the deepening global crisis in late 2008, crude oil prices went back to USD 35; and now it is hovering around USD 125. And the uncertainties about oil prices, resulting from demand and supply-side developments, and their potential effects keep the policymakers interest in commodity prices alive in the current economic outlook. As they are among the risk factors that affect the inflation outlook, we directly referred to commodity prices, mostly to those of crude oil and food, in our latest inflation reports. As a matter of fact, nearly half of the revisions about official inflation forecasts published in our inflation reports in the last couple of years originated from the changes in our assumptions about food and commodity prices. This suggests that the rise in commodity prices may bring about challenges for central banks not only in terms of direct pressures on inflation.
The preparatory work is well on track and will allow the ESCB to perform its tasks right from the start of Stage Three in January 1999; moreover, the EMI is often consulted by other European authorities, who pay careful attention to the advice it provides; this was notably the case for the changeover scenario adopted by the Heads of State and of Government in Madrid in December 1995, and for the elaboration of draft regulations concerning the legal framework for the use of the euro. Here again, France and Germany are playing a very active role in these preparations, and as early as tomorrow I will meet President Tietmeyer in Frankfurt, together with our colleagues, to attend the monthly EMI Council meeting. FRANCO-GERMAN MONETARY COOPERATION WILL ULTIMATELY BE CROWNED BY THE CREATION OF A EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION IN 1999 I am personally convinced that the creation of monetary union in 1999 is the logical consequence of economic, monetary and financial developments that have been taking place during the past years. The increasing integration of the European economies - and in particular those of France and Germany - called for a single monetary policy and a single currency. I am also convinced that monetary union will successfully go through, right from 1999 since: - it is a credible process; - it will create an environment of stability. EMU is a credible process Indeed, the case for a European monetary union is based on solid economic grounds, and it will be implemented in a realistic way.

Firms should use the design of the CBES and the underlying NGFS scenarios to inform their own scenario analysis, build their understanding of the climate risks they face, and enhance their climate risk management capabilities. I hope it will act as a catalyst, increasing firms’ knowledge of the risks they face, and incentivising them to take steps to address these risks. In turn, this will require firms’ clients in the real economy to improve their understanding of how climate change and the transition to a net-zero economy could impact their businesses and operations. Lessons learned from the CBES will also be shared with the NGFS as part of the collaborative approach taken by central banks, and on that note, I want to commend the ACPR’s recent publication of its own ambitious scenario exercise for the French financial system. 3  Through both its scenario work in the NGFS, and its internal analysis, the Bank has developed a clearer understanding of where climate knowledge gaps persist and what these might mean for our objectives. For example, there is particular value in the deepening of our understanding of the macroeconomic implications of climate change and the pathways to net-zero. It is for governments to set out a pathway to net-zero and the policy levers that will be used to deliver it. But as central banks, we will need to understand any implications of the transition for the economic outlook and our potential policy responses.
In sum, on Eurostat's current population projections, prepared in 2008, the dependency ratio (the over65s as a proportion of the working-age population) might more than double between 2008 and 2050 from 24% to almost 59%. Everybody is aware of the consequences of these population developments for the sustainability of our pay-as-you-go pension system. Growing pressure would build up on pension spending, meaning that the models currently available, including those devised by the Economy and Finance and Labour and Social Security Ministries which incorporate all the legislative amendments approved in recent years, show that this public spending item would double over the time period referred to above. As a result, the system could run a rising deficit as from 2025. It should also be highlighted that the latest demographic developments, in particular the heightened migrant inflows into Spain, do not resolve the problem. At best, the inflow of working-age immigrants holds back the increase in the dependency ratio derived from population ageing and, therefore, delays the emergence of the problems. But the full scale of these problems will persist. How can we tackle the challenge that demographics pose for our pension system? The scale of the problem calls for a three-pronged strategy. First, the strategy should be far-reaching, i.e. blending measures on different fronts. Specifically, the measures should pursue healthy public finances, implement structural reforms in the economy and seek to reform the pension system, as I shall now expand upon. Second, discussion of these measures should not stretch out over time.

Analysis of the Social Security system should not, however, be based on its results in the short term. The signing of the Toledo Pact was but an acknowledgement that the viability of a pay-as-you-go pension system should be analysed from a long-term perspective. Taking this perspective, I should stress that, according to analyses conducted by national and international analysts and institutions, neither the Social Security surpluses of the past decade nor the foreseeable worsening of the financial situation in the coming years will essentially alter the diagnosis. Accordingly, we may assert that the problems relating to the financial sustainability of the current Social Security system were the same ones that led at the time, among other reasons, to the signing of the Pact. BIS Review 51/2009  1  There are essentially two factors at the root of these problems: the sharp reduction in the birth rate and the progressive rise in life expectancy, both of which bear on the current and future structure of the Spanish population pyramid. On one hand, the outcome of the increase in life expectancy will see the over-65 segment progressively gain weight in the population total, while the pyramid base will narrow as a result of the birth rate falling below replacement levels. Consequently, the shape of the population age structure is changing from its current pyramid form to look more like a pillar. This will be so even assuming some pick-up in the birth rate and continuing positive migrant inflows into Spain.