samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Parallel to this development, the upward trend in unemployment rates reversed. In the mentioned period, unemployment rates increased in annual terms while they decreased compared to the second quarter in seasonally adjusted terms (Figure 30). Indicators such as capacity utilization rates and per capita hours worked suggest that resource utilization remains low throughout the economy. Given that ample slack would continue to be an obstacle to investment and employment, recent signs of improvement in employment data is not expected to turn into a significant recovery, suggesting that unemployment is likely to remain elevated for an extended period of time. Therefore, unit labor costs and domestic demand would continue to support disinflation. Figure 30: Unemployment Rates (Seasonally Adjusted, Percent) 19 Nonfarm Unemployment Rate 17  Unemployment Rate  15 13 11  0709  0509  0309  0109  1108  0908  0708  0508  0308  0108  1107  0907  0707  0507  0307  0107  9  Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. BIS Review 143/2009  13  As I have mentioned before, the tightness in credit conditions has been on an easing trend. Accordingly, developments in the credit market would begin to support domestic economic activity as of the fourth quarter of the year and the impact of monetary policy is expected to be more visible in the medium term. However, the rising domestic borrowing requirement of the government, ongoing problems in the global economy, and elevated levels of unemployment would continue restraining credit expansion.

In the third quarter, the disinflation process lost pace due to the tax measures to restore fiscal balances. 2  BIS Review 143/2009  In addition, phased-out tax cuts on durable consumption goods were one of the featured developments with regard to consumer prices in the third quarter. All in all, the decline in prices of core goods remained below previous levels (Figure 4). In the third quarter of the year, the rate of increase in services prices continued to slow down in the face of weakening domestic demand and the fading of high base effect caused by supply shocks in the previous year. Seasonally adjusted data suggest that the main trend of services inflation is at historically low levels, this prevailing across all sub-groups. It is especially noteworthy that monthly rent inflation continued smoothly along a downward path (Figure 5 and Figure 6). Nevertheless, we expect that the services sector will enter a gradual recovery trend, however prices will continue to increase at a moderate pace in the last quarter of the year. Figure 5: Services Prices  Figure 6: Services Prices  (Seasonally Adjusted, 2-Month Averages)  (Percentage Months)  2.0  16  1.8  Services  1.6  Rent  14  Change,  First  Nine  2006-2007 average 2008 2009  12  1.4  10  1.2 1.0  8  0.8  6  0.6 0.4  4  0.2  2  Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
The questions about trend productivity and other matters that may have altered the relationship between growth and inflation are one of several elements of uncertainty in the Riksbank’s forecasting  3  BIS Review 28/2000  work. When constructing assessments and material for decisions it is therefore important to check what is happening and be alert to any signs of changes that should be taken into account. The current assessment The Inflation Report we are publishing today presents a picture of the Swedish economy that remains bright, with good growth and moderate, though rising inflation. External economic prospects have gone on improving. It is above all GDP growth in the US economy that continues to be remarkably positive but it also looks as though growth in the euro area and the United Kingdom could be higher than assumed earlier. International consumer prices, however, are not expected to move up to the same extent. Less relaxed monetary policies among a number of central banks and growing pressure from international competition are judged to hold external prices back. But partly because the krona is not expected to appreciate quite as rapidly as we counted on earlier, import prices to producers are now assumed to be somewhat higher. On account of strong competition, however, we do not foresee a full pass-through to consumer prices. Domestic demand is also expected to be stronger than we foresaw in the December Report, notwithstanding the subsequent repo rate increase of 0.5 percentage points.

Rising asset prices and increased household wealth are also contributing to the growth of private consumption. Moreover, the strong economic activity and good stock market trend should contribute to a favourable development of investment. Diagram 2. GDP growth between 1994 and 2002  2. GDP growth 1994 - 2002  5 4  Average 1994-2002  3 2 1 0 1994  1995  1995  1997  1998  1999  2000p 2001p 2002p  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank’s forecast for 2000-2002  The Riksbank foresees GDP growth rates of 4.0% this year, 3.5% in 2001 and 2.6% in 2002. These are high rates compared with the 1970s and 1980s. By itself, the upward revision of GDP growth implies that unutilised resources in the economy are brought into production more quickly. The strong economic activity points to a higher rate of wage increases in the coming years. At the same time, it is possible that changes in the labour market will hold wage increases down. A growing proportion of wage increases is being allocated locally, for example. Moreover, inflation expectations among labour market organisations are still in line with the target. This means that, as we have seen in recent years, a real wage increase can be secured without such a large increase in nominal wages. BIS Review 28/2000  4  Historically high real wage increases in recent years should likewise contribute to a moderate development of wages.
Monetary policy is a matter of trade-offs Last year, we cut the repo rate to zero in Sweden, and we have continued to lower it below zero at the same time as we have purchased government bonds (see Figure 4). We did this  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  to safeguard confidence in the inflation target. If we can get inflation to rise, this will reduce the risk of the inflation target’s role as nominal anchor being undermined. Figure 4 The Riksbank’s purchases of government bonds and the repo rate SEK billion and per cent  Source: The Riksbank. According to our analysis, the purchases of government bonds have contributed to interest rates in Sweden being lower and the krona being weaker than would otherwise have been the case without the purchases. 4 We are now also seeing that inflation is moving in the right direction (see Figure 5). Figure 5 Inflation in Sweden Annual percentage change  Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Source: Statistics Sweden. 4  4  See De Rezende, R.B., Kjellberg, D and Tysklind, O., ”Effects of the Riksbank’s purchases of government bonds on financial prices”, Economic Commentary no. 13, 2015, Sveriges Riksbank. BIS central bankers’ speeches  However, we are very much aware that the low interest rate level is also increasing the risks linked to households’ already-high indebtedness.

I am referring to the development of FinTechs and the growing role of Big-Techs in the financial scape as they ride the digital revolution underway, and to the fight against climate change. On the former, regulators have become far more active in order to understand the risks and concerns associated with this ever expanding industry. At this stage, we need to consider consistent regulation across the board, with an extension of the coordination  perimeter beyond financial authorities to competition authorities, AML-CFT ones, data and cybersecurity agencies. This would be useful to ensure adequate surveillance, an even level playing field and to limit the potential risks for financial stability including the ones stemming from cyber-incidents and crypto-assets with network effects of potentially international magnitude. On the latter, the fight against climate change, disclosure and standardization are key elements to close the data gaps and ensure adequate incentives for corporates. I therefore consider that disclosure should become mandatory, at least as a first step for financial institutions, as it is already in France, and for large corporates. Ensuring consistency and comparability of disclosure around the world is essential, and relevant authorities, including sometimes the ones we are not so used to talk to as central bankers or supervisors, need to converge on these new challenges.
That is not so obvious in the figures for quarterly GDP growth (see left-hand panel of Chart 1), which have been buffeted by a variety of special factors, such as: the bad weather late last year; the impact of the Tōhoku disaster on global supply chains; and the extra bank holiday for the royal wedding. These last two, in particular, provided a temporary boost to the third-quarter growth rate of 0.5 per cent released on Tuesday. But business surveys and other indicators suggest that the underlying rate of expansion has probably eased (see right-hand panel of Chart 1). Those same surveys point to only very moderate growth at best in the final quarter of this year. This slowing in growth is not confined to the United Kingdom. Growth has eased in the euro area and the business surveys are consistent with contraction in the second half of this year (see Chart 2). Though output growth has picked up in the United States according to the latest official data, the business surveys suggest this may prove ephemeral (also see Chart 2). And there are signs that China and some other emerging economies have slowed too, though in their case the slowing was partly policy-induced in order to alleviate inflationary pressures. I would highlight two primary drivers of this slowing. The first is the heightened tension in financial and bank funding markets associated with the twin euro-area banking and sovereign debt crises.

However, this increase was exceeded by far by the wage hikes, which explains the sizeable widening of the external deficit, as well as the increasing inflationary pressures over the past year and a half. So, we embark upon this path, carrying a serious burden on our shoulders. I wonder what will happen the moment the increase in labour productivity slows down. Such a trend is closely connected to economic rigidities, the infrastructure-related issues, the slowdown in economic restructuring. In view of all these issues, the NBR does not embrace the idea of slowing down wage increases, but rather it advocates the creation of conditions likely to render this hike sustainable and maintain its actual nature. After all, from a nominal point of view, there is no limit to increasing wages. However, the market will admit only pay rises matched by labour productivity gains. The rest fuels inflation and the depreciation of domestic currency, taking the real level of wage rises to where it is matched by output and labour productivity. Next, I would like to make reference to the factors that establish the direct connection between the NBR’s legal tasks concerning wage increases, on the one hand, and the rise in labour productivity, on the other.
Adherence to this requirement will inject transparency, accountability and ensure the integrity of the financial system. It will prevent criminals from hiding their ownership of companies and assets through complex methods and vehicles. I last spoke at this conference in 2011. The theme of the 2011 conference was “Raising the bar in enforcement and compliance”. Looking back and taking stock of the present state, I am glad to see that the whole industry has matured and progressed in such a significant way. This is validated by the NCC report that the sector’s control measures for both money laundering and terrorism financing are strong. Further, fines imposed by the Bank on financial institutions has decreased over the past few years, reflecting the progress made by institutions in ensuring adequate controls. I hope the industry continues to strengthen its capability to fight crime. Another area in which progress has been made is the priority accorded within each institution to compliance. The focus of the compliance function has developed to become more comprehensive as financial institutions have a better understanding of the threats and risks involved. With increasing awareness of the direct and indirect costs of non-compliance, the compliance function is no longer viewed only as adherence to rules set by regulators, but is instead, an integral part of the organisation’s culture. The very fact that the theme of this 4/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  conference is on reshaping the future, governance and transparency is a testament to this.

Conclusion I spoke at length today about the responsibility that we have to combat crime and the ways to do so. Let me end by saying that eradicating financial crime makes good business sense. Financial crime is a cost and burden to all of society. Robust governance and greater transparency is good for business. It creates an environment of trust and a level-playing field for businesses to flourish. This is important as we seek to ensure longevity and continuity of businesses and the health of the economy as a whole. Therefore, let us be united in working for a better and brighter future for Malaysia. Greater governance and transparency will get us there. Thank you. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches
Survey responses show the mean value for the repo-rate expectations of money market participants in February 2015. “MPR” refers to the Riksbank’s forecast for the repo rate in its monetary policy reports. Sources: Statistics Sweden and TNS Sifo Prospera  But Chart 4 also shows that the repo rate has so far turned out to be much lower than the interest rate forecasts. The bonds have therefore risen in value and the funding of the bond purchases seems to become cheaper than expected, something which, at least in the short term, has led to higher profits than expected for the Riksbank. This is 11 An alternative measure of the future repo rate is provided by the market’s pricing of certain derivatives. This  pricing suggested that the repo rate would increase more slowly than in the Riksbank’s forecast, but the bond purchases would realise losses also according to these market-based expectations. 6 [12]  reflected in, for example, the forecast for the Riksbank’s dividend-qualifying profit in 2015 and 2016. 12 At the end of 2014, a total loss of just over SEK 10 billion was expected for those two years. 13 In March 2015, when bond purchases had begun on a small scale, the expected loss had risen to almost SEK 14 billion. The latest forecast, from October this year, has the benefit of hindsight and indicates that the outcome will instead be a profit of almost SEK 13 billion.

The Riksbank’s balance sheet SEK billion 900  900  Assets 800  Liabilities Equity  700  800 700  Other Foreign exchange reserve  600 500  600  Foreign exchange loans  400  400  300  Assets 200  100 Gold  500  Foreign exchange reserve  Liabilities Equity Banknotes and coins  0  August 2008  Government bonds  Certificates and fine tuning  300 200  100  Gold  Banknotes and coins  0  September 2016  Source: The Riksbank  The Riksbank purchases government bonds to support the upturn in inflation ... To begin with, I would like to remind you that the aim of the Riksbank’s operations is not to make a profit and deliver dividends to the government. Our task is to maintain price stability, and bond purchases are one component of the expansionary monetary policy we are conducting in order to safeguard the credibility of the inflation target. The Riksbank started purchasing government bonds in February 2015. At that time, inflation had been low for a long time, long-term inflation expectations had fallen to a record-low level and a period of falling oil prices risked pushing down inflation expectations even further (see Chart 2). In this situation, the Riksbank needed to safeguard continued confidence in its ability and willingness to stabilise inflation around the inflation target. As we know, a credible inflation target lays the foundation for efficient price-setting and wage formation and hence promotes good growth in the economy.
A dynamic growth of the derivatives market is the result of an increase in the cross-border flows in the financial markets. Between 1995 and 2004, the turnover on the global derivatives market grew nearly two-fold, whereas during the same period the activity on all exchange-traded derivatives grew almost three-fold (Chart 7). Chart 7: Average daily net turnover in global derivatives market, 1995-2004  USD billion 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 382 1 221 1 500 959 688 1 000 265 500 151 0 1995 1998 OTC FX derivatives market Exchange-traded derivatives  4 657  2 180 1 292 853  1025  489  2001 2004 OTC interest rate derivatives market  Source: BIS. BIS Review 60/2006  5  Reasons for globalization of financial markets The key factors that brought about the aforementioned changes in capital flows and in the structure of the global financial market comprise the following: •  liberalization of national financial markets and the related growing competition among financial institutions,  •  technological progress in IT and telecommunications,  •  faster flow of information and its standardisation,  •  globalization of national economies in their various aspects (commerce, institutions, ownership structure, capital and knowledge). The liberalization of national financial markets has eliminated restrictions in the operations of both domestic and foreign financial entities. Regulations regarding the range of services performed by the banks and other financial institutions have been changed.

The franc did not really begin to appreciate until after the events of 11 September. Within a very short space of time it had appreciated by 5% against the euro. Later on, the way the Swiss franc was moving caused us concern on numerous occasions. This led us to ease monetary policy further last year as well. It is only recently that the franc corrected itself against the euro. The stabilisation of the geopolitical situation is likely to have played a major role in this. All in all, the Swiss franc has appreciated by 4% against the euro since its introduction - much less than had originally been feared. If one also takes into account the inflation differential between Switzerland and the euro area, the appreciation has been even more modest. 4  BIS Review 27/2003  Our monetary policy concept enables us to take greater account of developments on the foreign exchange markets and to communicate our intentions openly. We do not, however, actually seek to manage the exchange rate. Only on rare exceptional occasions - such as the extreme appreciation of the franc in the late 1970s - does an explicit exchange rate target make sense for Switzerland. The frequently expressed concern that the introduction of the euro would mean the disappearance of the interest rate differential between Swiss franc and euro investments has also proved groundless.
Our collaboration has most recently been demonstrated through the establishment of the regulator-industry steering group and working group on regulatory reporting reform, which I am pleased to note the AFM is a member of. We are currently running a Quantitative Impact Study to gather data that will allow us, with government, to formulate effective 4/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  policy proposals. I should emphasise that the scenarios used in the QIS are not policy proposals. The QIS is complemented by a qualitative questionnaire to support our policy thinking, and our future cost-benefit analysis. High quality submissions from a range of respondents, including mutuals, will be key to the PRA’s ability to help develop well-evidenced reform. We welcome participation from all firms who are able to submit responses to the parts of the QIS and questionnaire that are relevant to your business, by the deadline of 20 October 2021. I am pleased that the AFM and some individual mutuals responded to the HM Treasury’s call for evidence on Solvency II. Having mutuals input at this early stage will help inform our policy development. In the deposit-taking sector, a lot of work in relation to mutual deposit takers has been undertaken and benefitted from good engagement between industry and regulator. I am thinking in particular of our simplification of the regime for credit unions. This approach to the removal of unnessary/burdensome regulation is part of the overall work being undertaken by the PRA.

When I addressed the invitation to Madame Lagarde to visit Cyprus a few months ago, I could not have imagined how much more complicated the situation would be today. At the beginning of the year, the economic confidence was improving and the GDP growth rate was recovering fast. The war in Ukraine however changed everything. It has first and foremost caused a humanitarian tragedy, which we, as Cypriots, can relate to since we have gone through a similar situation with the Turkish invasion back in 1974. It has also shaped an economic landscape of higher risks and uncertainties. The situation calls for a strategy that goes far beyond the financial technical sphere, reaching to the core of our European values. I am confident that once again, as we did recently with the pandemic, the Eurozone will manage to address the challenges and come stronger out of this crisis. The most recent ECB policies have successfully guided the euro area economies out of the pandemic shock with the minimum possible scarring. Both the euro area as well as Cyprus have reached the pre-pandemic real GDP level within 2021, while a similar path has been recorded in the labour dynamics with the labour force participation having reached pre-pandemic levels. This has been achieved by the formulation of ample policy support. The ECB took a series of policy decisions aimed at achieving favourable financing conditions and alleviating the economic hit on households and businesses.