samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In transportation systems, ABMs have been used for traffic management, taxi dispatch, traffic signal control 6  and combined rail and road transport planning. Long before the age of Uber, ABMs were being used to 4 5 6  For example, Pelechano, Allbeck, and Badler (2007). For example, Rauh, Schenk and Schrödl (2012). For the review see Chen and Cheng (2010) 15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  15  7  maximise the efficiency of taxi pick-ups. They have been used as a means of undertaking air traffic control on a decentralised basis, including by the US Federal Aviation Authority. As well as increasing the efficiency of routing, this decentralised approach can improve aircraft safety by serving as a backstop when communication with a central air traffic controller is lost. 8  A more recent application of the same technology is autonomous vehicles, such as driverless cars. As with aircraft, these too need to solve a complex co-ordination problem, taking account not just of the environment but the behaviour of other agents. As with aircraft, these models can be used to demonstrate the scope for both efficiency savings (it is estimated each autonomous vehicle can replicate the performance of 11 conventional ones) and safety improvements (it is estimated an autonomous vehicle network might reduce road accidents by over 90%). 9  Figure 8: Air traffic and transport control  Figure 9: Electricity grids  Source: United States Air Force (public domain). Military air traffic controllers in a control tower (image available here).

Rather, she is impressively balanced and fully aware, at least in my opinion, that her legacy will be whether she can successfully complete Act V by realizing the Fed’s mandate to maintain price stability while providing the monetary means to achieve full employment. All of which means that despite the mighty efforts of Captains Bernanke and Yellen and their officers and crew, present company included, we do not know how “The Grand Experiment” drama will end. We certainly all hope it proves an inspiring history, not a tragedy. But, we will not know for some time. We will not know until the curtain drops on Act V. R.I.P? Betsy Duke had it right: Only when we have normalized monetary policy – only when the play is done – will we know if QE3 rests in peace or comes back to haunt us. Only when it is done will we know if “The Grand Experiment in Modern Monetarism” is a smash hit or a bomb or something in between. As Yogi Berra said and Lenny Kravitz sang: “It ain’t over till it’s over.” But one thing I know for sure: This speech is over. Thank you for listening. And now, Mickey, time and patience permitting, I would be happy to avoid answering any questions you and your colleagues might have.
Taking a euro area perspective, these results are interesting in at least two respects. First, the level of US interest rates are an essential feature of the world economy and the economic and financial environment of the euro area. Second, the experience of other major central banks is a natural benchmark for the design and the monitoring of our own policies, on which I would like to share with you a few thoughts. The predominant objective of our first wave of unconventional measures, which we have labelled the “fixed rate full allotment” supply of liquidity, was to ensure that liquidity shortages do not escalate into defaults, especially in the financial sector. This has mainly consisted in ensuring the correct provision of liquidity to the banking sector against the backdrop of a major confidence crisis. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Yet, by the end of 2010 the crisis had taken on a new form. The fiscal constraint became binding in a number of periphery countries. Investors started to price in sovereign credit risks. By 2011, it appeared clear that investors were also factoring in the risk of a euro area break-up. This, in turn, entailed an increased degree of market fragmentation within the euro area, with borrowers facing different credit conditions depending on their country of origin. Our Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme was specifically designed to reaffirm the irreversibility of the euro. The OMT allowed investors to discard a specific form of systemic risk.

In the case of the euro area, characterised by a high degree of financial integration, ignoring this risk exposed us to major disruptions. This analysis echoes Maurice Obstfeld’s keynote address and I believe that our response to these risks is fully in line with his recommendations. Indeed, we have learned a great deal from the past five years and have made progress at an unprecedented pace. EMU is now firmly on the road to a banking union. To a large extent, this is the very institutional mechanism that was lacking in the first place. Our OMTs have limited the scale of financial fragmentation and have greatly reduced the risk that increasing spreads might end in sovereign defaults. But the euro area needs an institutional framework capable of preventing the recurrence of such crises, essentially by decoupling financial risk from sovereign risk. The banking union thus consists of three major pillars: a Single Supervisory Mechanism, a supranational resolution mechanism, and a unified system of deposit insurance. For now, the first pillar of the banking union is the most advanced, but the other two are also in the pipeline and need to be pursued. Let me now conclude. Euro area macroeconomic governance is now stronger than it was before the outbreak of the crisis since it has been put on a sounder institutional footing. Our institutional architecture is about to be completed, which will help to prevent the resurgence of a new sovereign debt crisis.
While we have seen some easing in the past couple of months as the impact of past energy price rises starts to recede, UK CPI inflation is still in double digits. That is unacceptably high. In line with its mandate, the MPC has taken action to bring inflation back to the 2% target on a sustainable basis. Over the past 18 months since I joined the MPC: we have raised Bank Rate by almost 400 basis points; we have halted asset purchases and started to run down the portfolio of assets held as a result of quantitative easing (QE); and we have changed the character of our communication about the economic outlook and its implications for policy. Taken all together, this represents a significant tightening of the monetary policy stance, commensurate to the significant challenges to price stability we have been and are facing. These challenges come from recent rises in European wholesale energy prices; from disruptions to global supply chains; from the strength of corporate pricing power; and from tightness in the UK labour market. All of these challenges continue to threaten or linger. The MPC has done a lot to address these challenges. But has it done enough? Famously, monetary policy works with ‘long and variable lags’. [1] As a result, much of the policy  Page 3  tightening announced by the MPC over the past year still has to work its way through to the economy in general, and to price developments in particular.

Durmuş Yilmaz: Dollarization – consequences and policy options Speech by Mr Durmuş Yilmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at a Conference on “Dollarization”, Istanbul, 14 December 2006. *  *  *  Distinguished Governors, Academicians and Guests, I would like to welcome you all to the conference entitled “Dollarization: Consequences and Policy Options”. I would also like to thank you for sharing your precious knowledge and experiences with us. As this conference is one of the activities organized in the context of the 75th anniversary of the Central Bank of Turkey, it gives me an honor to give the start for it. Before continuing with my speech, I would like to comment on the motives that lie behind the topic of this conference. Although we have never had hyperinflation, we, in Turkey, experienced high and chronic inflation for the past almost 30 years before 2001. Living long years with chronic inflation led to huge losses in the credibility of our national currency, which is important for us as an institution responsible for issuing banknotes and maintaining stability of the money. In this sense, it will be appropriate indeed to discuss dollarization in depth, I believe. Given the wide range of issues related to dollarization and the limited time available, I will make some brief remarks on the concept of dollarization in general and touch upon the Turkish experience in particular. Dear Guests, Dollarization has evolved as one of the noteworthy features of globalization during the last two decades.
Although the risk controls seem to have done a pretty good job of capturing the economic terms of the trades, the assignment problems create uncertainty about the actual size of exposures to individual counterparties that could exacerbate market liquidity problems in the event of stress. What can be done to mitigate these risks? The two general areas that offer the highest potential return in reducing systemic risk are improvements (1) in the sophistication of the risk management process used to generate adequate capital and liquidity cushions against a severe economic or market disruption and (2) in the post trade processing and settlement infrastructure. The frontier of challenges in the risk management process lies principally in the discipline of stress testing and scenario analysis to capture potential losses in adverse conditions in the "tail" of the distribution. This has been and will continue to be a principal focus of our supervisory efforts.

Hence, for the whole of 2008 the reduction of foreign reserves was moderate and mostly a reflection of developments in q4, (at worsened export performance, increased psychological influence due to world crisis and more significant outflow of dividend payout abroad). However, the projections for the reduced external demand and the uncertainties about the volume of 2009 capital inflows, announce widenning of the gap between the demand and supply of foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market. Figure 2 Foreign Reserves (change compared to previous quarter, in millions of euros)*  BIS Review 60/2009  3  *The change in q4, 2008 includes the dividend payout of one large company to its foreign shareholder. Figure 3  4)  Developments in q1, 2009 show higher then expected worsening of the trends in the external sector. This corresponds to the continuous revisions of the projections of global developments, and is showing up through the further reduction of the gross foreign reserves. What exactly do the available data for the external sector show? First, in the domain of foreign trade, during the first two months of the current year exports and imports registered significant annual reduction of 36.8 percent and 16.6 percent, respectively. The reduction of the pressure on the trade deficit with the reduction of oil prices was offset through the drop in external demand, so although the deficit is within the expected range, so far still there is a risk of a higher then estimated trade deficit.
On the macroeconomic side, the news for the United States is mostly favorable. Labor market conditions have significantly improved over the past few years and unemployment is now around 5 percent. The household sector is much less leveraged, the housing sector is recovering, the banking system is much healthier, and the corporate sector is highly profitable, even as business fixed investment spending remains quite weak. Although inflation has fallen short of our objective, I am confident that inflation will return to our 2 percent objective over the next few years as the labor market tightens further and the transitory factors that have held inflation down dissipate. After years at the effective lower  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  bound for short-term interest rates, economic conditions have finally warranted the start of U.S. monetary policy normalization. But these monetary policy adjustments are likely to be gradual and cautious, as we continue to face significant uncertainties and the headwinds to growth from the financial crisis have not fully abated. For Europe, the economic outlook has started to improve. The European Union is experiencing a cyclical recovery and the unemployment rate has been steadily declining over the past two years. The end of fiscal tightening appears to be a key factor in this recovery. Risks of low inflation, however, remain a concern for the European Central Bank and have motivated their aggressive use of unconventional monetary policy instruments.

William C Dudley: Opening remarks at the Transatlantic Economy – Convergence or Divergence Conference Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 18 April 2016. *  *  *  It is my pleasure to welcome you to today’s conference. Over the past decade, the New York Fed has been working together with the European Commission and the Centre for Economic Policy Research in sponsoring a number of conferences on interdependencies and policy challenges on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. Today, as in the past, we have a great program with many distinguished speakers from academia, and the private and public sectors. In particular, I would highlight the keynote speech following lunch by Pierre Moscovici, European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs. As the two largest economies in the world, the United States and the European Union have a shared stake in the vitality of the global economy. Without growth in both our regions, the global economy will not prosper and we will not be able to provide the conditions to enable our citizens to fulfill their aspirations. Both the United States and Europe suffered large social and economic costs from the financial crisis and the deep recession that followed. We continue to take steps to minimize the risks that we will ever find ourselves in that situation again.
Dimitar Bogov: Payment systems and market infrastructures Speech by Mr Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the 10th jubilee edition of the NBRM's Conference on Payments and Market Infrastructures: Drivers of European Payment Integration - Innovations and Cooperation, Ohrid, 5-7 July 2017. * * * Distinguished guests, Ladies and gentlemen, It is a great pleasure for me to address you on the 10th jubilee edition of the Conference on Payments and Market Infrastructures. Organizing this Conference has become a valuable tradition of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia. We take great pride for being able to host it all these years. This notable anniversary is an opportunity to look back and reflect on the beginnings, to honor the achievements we have made so far and set the road for future growth and development. The history of the Conference dates back to 2008 set as a joint project with De Nederlandsche Bank who is our partner in this journey from its very beginning. I feel the need to credit for it the enthusiasm of Toni Mircheski, Deputy Head of the Payment Systems Department within the NBRM, Mr Michiel van Doeveren and Mr Paul Osse from De Nederlandsche Bank for initiating and organizing the very first conference.

Yet in 2015, fewer than 5% of French companies and 6% of individuals had some form of cyber-insurance.3 Insurers can and should take inspiration from their own experiences in tackling cyber-risk, and use it to develop a more mature 1  Sources: Fédération Bancaire Française; Observatoire 2016 de l’image des banques, published by BVA and based on a survey conducted in May 2016, and Observatoire 2015. 2 Source: European Commission’s Digital Economy and Society Index. 3 Source: Le marché de la cyber-assurance : la révolution commence maintenant, PwC, January 2016. 3  French and European cyber-insurance offering. Second subject: data and big data, with the spread of connected objects that is triggering an exponential rise in the amount of data available on insurance policyholders. Naturally this represents an opportunity: the traditional business of insurance consists precisely in collecting and exploiting data in order to quantify and put a price on risk. Nonetheless, I would urge insurers to take a responsible approach: we need to strike the right balance between segmentation and the sharing of risk between policyholders – the basic principles of solidarity and risk-pooling that are intrinsic to insurance are at stake. And we must not lose sight of our collective values regarding individuals’ right to privacy. 3. What are the challenges for the French and European economy? Let me just remind you of two basic economic facts: there can be no lasting growth without a rise in productivity; and there can be no productivity without innovation and its diffusion.
Given the array of tools at our disposal, I am confident that the FOMC can adjust and control short-term interest rates as needed to foster its objectives of maximum employment and price stability. The configuration of rates during normalization The Committee’s normalization principles and plans do not detail the manner in which IOER as a primary tool would be combined with supplementary tools such as ON RRPs to move the fed funds rate into the target range. However, as reflected in the minutes to the July FOMC meeting, most Committee participants anticipate that, at least initially, the IOER rate could be set at the top of the target range for the funds rate, and the ON RRP rate could be set at the bottom of that range. This is also consistent with the views of many market participants as reflected in surveys conducted by the Desk. 12 I’d like to take a moment to explain why I believe such a regime would be a sensible way to implement policy during the first stages of normalization, when reserve balances will be in such ample supply. Most importantly, it’s a regime in which the Desk should achieve the target for the fed funds rate set by the FOMC. As IOER is raised, its magnetic force will pull the fed funds rate higher. At the same time, the high level of reserve balances in the system should lead the effective rate to print below the IOER rate, at least initially during normalization.

As a case in point, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi recently acquired a microfinance bank in Cambodia, using the Bank of Ayudhya in Thailand as a base for the acquisition. Such financial linkages will serve Japanese enterprises and tap opportunities in one of the region’s exciting emerging markets. The strong presence of Japanese financial institutions in the region will surely be an important conduit for non-financial companies in Japan to leverage on the promising prospect of the GMS region. Ladies and gentlemen, We have indeed come a long way and have gone through several tests of external disturbances. Let me assure you that the Bank of Thailand will continue to strengthen our macroeconomic resilience and stay firmly committed to financial stability as one of our principle mandates. We also embrace continuing reforms and upgrades in the financial sector to remove obstacles to the development of regional trade and investments. We are confident that Japan, Thailand and the region can mutually benefit from broader and deeper linkages, both economically and financially. With stronger economic and financial ties, I am excited to see how we, together, will move the region forward and continue to work closely in the global arena. Again, it is my great honor to be here tonight with our close and longtime friends who have supported Thailand’s economic and financial development. Thank you very much for your friendship, your commitment, and your contribution to the Thai economy. I look forward to further cooperation between our countries for many years to come. Thank you very much.
The EU's institutions There was a discussion at the European Council meeting in Nice in December 2000 on the shaping of the EU's decision-making processes when the union is enlarged to include many more members than it has today. With regard to the ECB, the current regulations would lead to a situation where 34 persons would have the right to vote on monetary policy in the ECB Council, if all of the candidate countries were also to take part in the monetary union. The Council of Europe therefore decided to introduce a clause into the regulations enabling the rules in the ESCB charter for participation in the Governing Council to be changed without having to call an intergovernmental conference. However, a change would still require unanimous support from all member countries and ratification by each of them. A proposal for a change in the voting right could be put forward by the ECB or the European Commission. The new clause will come into force together with the Treaty of Nice when it is ratified by all of the current member countries. There is no given method of organising decision-making in a monetary union with many participants. An attempt to analyse the decision-making process in an enlarged ECB Governing Council has been made by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in a report published in October 2001.

To begin with, the economic data looked brighter at this point in 2010 and again in 2011, only to fade as we got into the second and third quarters of those years.1 Moreover, the United States has experienced unusually mild weather over the past few months, with the number of heating degree days in January and February about 17 percent below the average of the preceding five years. While this reduces the amount that households and businesses must spend for heating, I suspect that it temporarily boosts economic activity overall. For example, the mild weather is certainly conducive to higher than normal levels of construction activity, and we did see a surge in hours worked in that sector over the past few months. More importantly, real economic activity has yet to be strong enough on a sustained basis to make a big dent in the overall amount of slack in the U.S. economy. While it is true that growth was stronger in the fourth quarter, most of that growth was due to inventory accumulation. Growth of final sales was actually quite weak. Historically, a quarter in which inventory investment makes a significant growth contribution is typically followed by a quarter in which that growth contribution is modest or even negative. That appears to be what is shaping up for the first quarter of this year. Based on available data, current expectations are that real GDP will expand at around a 2 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2012.
As long as oil prices are high, the Norwegian economy is fairly sheltered. Many central banks are now reducing their key rates. As our economy is affected to a lesser extent, the differential between short rates in Norway and abroad may widen. Thank you for your attention. 10  BIS Review 19/2001

Philipp M Hildebrand: Current monetary policy situation and economic prospects Speech by Dr Philipp M Hildebrand, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at “Finanzinstitute Thurgau bei der Universität Konstanz”, Kreuzlingen, 26 April 2004. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  Due to the vigorous monetary and fiscal policy stimuli from the US, the global economy is expanding again. In Switzerland, too, the upswing has become a reality. In the current year, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expecting growth of 1.5% - 2%, which slightly exceeds the present growth potential. Since capacity utilisation is still fairly modest, such economic growth does not bring an immediate threat of inflation for Switzerland at the moment. The downward risks still existing therefore justify a cautious monetary policy. In order to be able to ensure price stability in the medium term, the SNB must, however, bring its expansionary monetary policy back on normal course again as soon as the economic recovery sets in and capacity utilisation improves markedly. BIS Review 24/2004  1