samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
According to the principle of risk-spreading, it would still be better to support research and development activities on quite a broad basis. •  The economic analyses by the central bank consistently emphasise that in order to obtain financial capital required for development, Estonia must remain attractive in the eyes of foreign investors also in the future. However, in order to boost the country's competitiveness it would be a good idea to adopt a more carefully planned system of investments into human capital and set up a framework for financing innovation. •  There are many possibilities to do that. Firstly, large companies could train their own staff. This would require strong public secondary education, diploma studies, and postgraduate studies, and not necessarily public vocational education. (There are examples of such an approach primarily in the IT and telecommunications areas.) •  The second possibility is state-commissioned education. Since investments into human capital promote innovation and bring about other positive effects, state investments into the area are justified as the private sector invests less than is socially optimal. Estonia is quite progressive in that field - we spend 6-7% of the GDP on education, which is more than in other transition countries and similar to the respective levels in Finland and Sweden. •  Even though state-controlled development of human capital requires increased spendings from the national budget, it is relevant that some of the expenditure will be later recovered through additional receipts since rising productivity and employment boost tax revenues.

2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Net income for the cooperative sector as a whole in 2015 exceeded € million, entailing an increase of close to 15% on 2014. The return on equity was 4.8%, having increased by somewhat more than 0.5 pp in 2015. This improvement in profitability is due to the almost 60% reduction in asset impairment losses over the past year (practically € million), the result of the reduction in NPLs I mentioned earlier. Net interest income held relatively stable, with both revenue and financial costs having fallen, while the efficiency ratio improved by several percentage points. As regards the sector’s solvency, the highest quality capital ratio, namely CET1, for Spanish cooperatives as a whole was 13.7% in December 2015, almost 70 bp up on the related December 2014 level. This gives a level of CET1 almost 1 pp higher than the aggregate for the Spanish banking sector. In conclusion, the cooperative sector in Spain is holding up with figures and ratios in line with those of the rest of the banking sector, and is currently evidencing solvency levels somewhat higher than those of the rest of the sector. Regulatory agenda: recent developments in the Basel III capital framework I would now like to review the reforms outstanding. But I shall first offer you a brief reminder of the key elements of the new regulatory framework we know as Basel III.
Abstracting from the scope for other policies to boost demand, Williams puts the cost to the United States of this constraint on policy rates at around $ trillion of foregone output over 2009–2012. 12  BIS Review 111/2010  Some might be tempted, therefore, to argue that a modest increase in target inflation rates from the current norm of around 2 per cent is called for. There are, however, potential costs associated with accepting higher average inflation. First, while the costs from perfectly anticipated inflation might seem likely to be modest, the academic literature suggests that may not be the case. Moreover, there is a well documented empirical relationship between the level and the volatility of inflation, and unexpected movements in inflation are more likely to generate resource misallocation and the capricious redistribution of income and wealth. There is, therefore, a risk that even a modest increase in the target of a few percentage points could lead to a corresponding increase in inflation volatility and associated welfare losses. Second, unlike in most macroeconomic models, expectations formation is not costless. A bonus from low and stable inflation is that economic agents do not have to expend much effort in predicting inflation; the simple heuristic that inflation is a constant – or even that prices are stable – will suffice (Brazier et al., 2008). That is particularly valuable for households, who are likely to be relatively less informed.

But keeping interest rates low in the future will boost future inflation, thus raising expected inflation and boosting activity today. The problem is that the central bank lacks the incentive to stick to this strategy once economic conditions have improved and the ZLB episode is past, i.e. the policy is time inconsistent. So the central bank needs to have some way of making credible a commitment to what will subsequently seem like future irresponsibility; words alone will not suffice, unless reneging on those words carries a significant reputational cost. It is important to distinguish this policy strategy from simply communicating that policy rates are likely to stay low because output and inflation are expected to stay low. That may help to align expectations with the views of the policy maker and be valuable in aiding transparency, but does not represent the pursuit of a policy strategy under commitment. As noted above, the earlier deflation scare, following the collapse of the dot-com bubble, had already persuaded the FOMC not only to keep the target Federal Funds rate at an especially low level, but also first to indicate that it would remain low for an “extended period” and then to indicate that the monetary stimulus would be withdrawn at only a “measured” pace. This has something of the character of attempting to reap the benefits of being able to commit in the future by sticking to past promises.
The term “globalisation” has become one of the most fashionable buzzwords in contemporary political and economic debate. In an economic context, globalisation is associated with the growing economic linkages among countries through trade in goods and services, free cross-border capital flows, and more rapid and widespread diffusion of technology. 2 From a historical point of view, this is hardly a new phenomenon, 3 but over the past few decades this process has accelerated, as the time and costs necessary to connect distinct geographical locations have been drastically reduced. Indeed, geographical distance and national borders are much less important than previously, allowing firms to operate easily across national and geographical barriers. Multinational corporations, for example, typically manufacture their products in a wide variety of countries and sell to consumers around the world. And investment in financial markets can now be carried out directly on an international basis rather than through intermediaries, owing to economic deregulation and financial liberalisation, which have been underpinned by rapid advances in information and communication technology. We can therefore safely conclude that globalisation has radically transformed our economic and financial landscapes. What I would like to do today is to discuss the inter-linkages between globalisation, EMU and the euro. Before looking into this challenging issue, let me briefly talk about the creation of EMU in the context of globalisation. The creation of EMU in the context of globalisation EMU is the end-point of a long process towards monetary union, which started only a few years after the end of the Second World War.

8 In such an ideal scenario, each economy would be perfectly positioned to withstand economic shocks. This portfolio theory provides a benchmark for assessing the degree of financial integration in a given country. Over the last decade many countries have indeed been reducing their risk positions in equity markets through this mechanism, and in several developed countries the tendency to invest in domestic equity assets has decreased. However, the latter are still far from having a theoretically optimal portfolio, i.e. one with a zero home bias. In 2003, equity home bias amounted to 70% in the euro area and the US, and almost 90% in Japan (see Chart 1). 9 The degree of home bias in the fixed income market is also high, and has only decreased over time in the euro area (see Chart 2). Chart 1. Home bias in the equity market for the Chart 2. Home bias in the debt instruments market euro area, the US and Japan (annual data) for the euro area, the US and Japan (annual data)  Sources: IMF, Thomson Financial DataStream, Sources: BIS, IMF, ECB calculations. ECB calculations. Note: The home bias of the euro area is Note: The home bias of the euro area is computed computed excluding intra-euro area asset trade excluding intra-euro area asset trade allocation. allocation. We can, therefore, say that the global tendency to invest in the home market has been declining, albeit possibly more slowly than one would have expected, and only in the equity market.
In the case of such a lambda, the point of contact will be lower down to the left, for example at point C, where the Taylor curve is flatter. The inflation forecast will then be further from the target while the forecast for resource utilisation will be closer to a normal level. It is of course not so easy to determine what a reasonably large lambda should be for a central bank. Neither the Riksbank nor other central banks have yet announced whether they apply a specific lambda and if so what this lambda is. In those cases where the decisions are made by a committee made up of several members, as at the Riksbank, it is also possible that different members attach different degrees of importance to the stability of the real economy. A question that then arises is how these different views should be aggregated. Nor is it entirely certain that monetary policy decision-makers are even clearly aware of the importance they attach to stability compared with the stability of inflation. If the central bank's forecasts are only based on a known model, like the Riksbank's main model Ramses, it is possible to determine the position of the modified Taylor curve and which point the Riksbank's main scenario in each Monetary Policy report corresponds to. 8 In practice, the Riksbank's forecasts and those of other central banks are based on several different models and a great deal of judgement.

Lars E O Svensson: Evaluating monetary policy Speech by Mr Lars E O Svensson, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Uppsala University, Uppsala, 13 March 2009. The original speech, which contains various links to the documents mentioned, can be found on the Sveriges Riksbank’s website. *  *  *  Ten years ago – on 1 January 1999 – a number of legislative changes came into force that made the Riksbank more independent. As a result, the monetary policy decisions since then have been made by an Executive Board consisting of six members who are not permitted to seek or take instructions in the course of their work. These legislative changes can be seen as part of an international trend that has now been underway for a couple of decades – a trend towards an institutional framework for monetary policy with the aim of making monetary policy more effective and more able to promote monetary stability and stability in the real economy. This institutional framework for monetary policy rests on three pillars: 1. A government or parliamentary mandate for monetary policy, which is normally to maintain price stability. 2. Independence for the central bank to conduct monetary policy and fulfil the mandate. 3. Mechanisms for accountability and supervision. The central bank's independence gives its governors a lot of power. In a democratic society, it is natural that the activities of the central bank are monitored and evaluated and that its independent management can be called to account.
No, it applies of course to all parts of our activities – everything from our way of making forecasts to how the organisation looks and how we can improve the opportunities to assess how well we are doing. And an important part of this is discussions like the one we are having today. Thank you! 1. Driving forces behind increased openness and clarity   Monetary policy works better  Efficiency reasons  Independence requires openness  Democratic reasons  8  BIS Review 132/2007  2. Increased credibility 5  5 Inflation expectations CPI  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2 1994  -2 1996  1998  2000  2002  2004  2006  2008  2010  2012  Sources: Prospera Research AB and Statistics  3. Changes in our communication 2007 February  M ay  September  BIS Review 132/2007  • Forecast for the repo rate • M onetary Policy Report  • Press conference after each monetary policy meeting • No signalling in normal cases • Names in the minutes of the monetary policy meetings  • Repo rate forecast at each monetary policy meeting • 6 times a year  9  4. Other changes…   Time lag between the Monetary  Policy Report and the hearing  UND1X has become CPIX  5. Swedish economy is strong GDP growth. Annual percentage change.

Our critics, both at home and abroad, have accused us of intervening with the aim simply of propping up the stock market; of being too afraid to face the pain from the necessary interest rate volatility under a strict currency board system operating in difficult conditions; even of trying to introduce a novel form of state ownership by acquiring a substantial interest in Hong Kong’s major corporations. The essence of these charges is that what we did in August marked the end of our long-standing and hugely successful philosophy of non-intervention in the markets. I think it is now increasingly recognized throughout the world that what we did was both necessary and effective. But let me emphasize this: our actions in August were not the end of non-interventionism, not an abandonment of our free market principles, but a measure taken to ensure that those principles prevailed. Free markets cannot mean markets that can be freely manipulated, particularly by large players operating in small markets. We did the minimum that BIS Review 98/1998  -4-  was necessary to preserve the integrity of our linked exchange rate system and allow our financial markets properly to perform the role of financial intermediation. Our responsibility was to keep the markets free and fair for all investors. Not to have acted would, in my view, have been the very height of irresponsibility, and would have seriously damaged Hong Kong’s credibility as an international, and freely accessible, financial centre. We now have a substantial shares portfolio.
8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Price stability, banking system solidity, credit recovery, market supply with liquidity, reducing non-performing loans, implementation of best practices of supervision, strengthening of governance and enhancing communication with the Assembly, the state institutions and our strategic partners will be major objectives for our work in 2016 and beyond. Thank you for your attention! BIS central bankers’ speeches  9

It fell from an unsustainable peak, of course, but the drop was spectacular nonetheless. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Where are we now, almost five years later? First, there is hardly any talk of a potential sovereign default any more: the public sector has a primary surplus, the overall deficit is estimated to have been around 2% of GDP last year, government debt as a share of GDP is on a downward trajectory, and Iceland has investment-grade ratings from all three major rating agencies. Second, we are far advanced in rebuilding a domestically oriented financial sector. The new domestic banks, which were built on the ashes of the three failing cross-border banks, are profitable, well capitalised, liquid, and with nonperforming loan ratios that, although still high due the crisis, are falling to normal levels as private sector debt restructuring progresses and the economy recovers. Third, the economy has indeed recovered, as can been seen on Figure 1a. The economy has been growing since the second quarter of 2010, and unemployment has fallen from a peak of over 9% to around 5½%. And as Figure 1b shows, this year Iceland is projected to be among the world’s five fastest-growing advanced economies, with growth estimated at 2.1%, although that is due in part to the recent slowdown in many other advanced countries.
We have very limited ability to predict the sources of stress to the financial system, but if the cushions at the core of the system are robust, the risk of a systemic crisis will be diminished, and central banks will have greater ability to mitigate the risk of broader damage to the economy. The pace and extent of the changes in financial markets requires supervisors to work harder to understand the consequences of changing market practice for the incentives and constraints we impose on financial institutions. Let me give two examples of evolving market practices that may help alleviate one concern only to exacerbate another. Collateral plays an increasingly important role in counterparty credit risk management, particularly for highly leveraged counterparties. The increased importance of variation margining plays a critical role in counterparty credit risk management. These changes help limit the exposure of the core financial institution to losses among their leveraged counterparties, but they also act to exacerbate volatility, with asset price declines forcing further margin calls, adding for further market declines. Where initial margin is thin in relation to potential exposure, counterparties are more exposed to adverse movements in asset prices, and in a situation of stress the actions they take to reduce their exposure to further losses are likely to have a greater negative impact on market dynamics.

Christine Lagarde: IMFC statement Statement by Ms Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, at the forty-seventh meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, IMF Spring Meetings, Washington DC, 14 April 2023. ***  Introduction Since the October meeting, the global economic outlook has improved on the back of a gradual easing of global supply bottlenecks, declining energy prices, and the recovery of the Chinese economy following the lifting of pandemic-related containment measures. Global inflation has also been declining since it peaked in summer 2022, supported by easing supply constraints, as well as by the tightening of monetary policy among advanced economies. However, the recovery prospects for the global economy remain fragile amid continued uncertainty, fuelled by Russia's unjustified war against Ukraine, and the possibility that pressures in global energy and food markets may reappear, leading to renewed price spikes and higher inflation. Resilient labour markets and strong wage growth, especially in advanced economies, suggest that underlying inflationary pressures remain strong. At the same time, other factors that may accelerate disinflation include: persistently elevated financial market tensions, falling energy prices, and a weakening of demand, owing also in part to a stronger deceleration of bank credit or a stronger than projected transmission of monetary policy. As inflation is projected to remain too high for too long, the Governing Council of the ECB decided in March to raise the key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing the total increase since July 2022 to 350 basis points.
2  BIS Review 63/2002  fluctuated between 1.5 and 2.7 per cent) but also to the fact that the demand for labour declined in 4 connection with the economic recession at the beginning of the 1990s. A high level of credibility for the inflation target has pushed down inflation expectations. Stable inflation expectations make it easier for the social partners to negotiate new wage agreements. They do not need to worry that pay packets will contain mostly air and they have no need to safeguard by demanding high nominal wage increases, as was often the case before. The institutional changes in wage bargaining may also have contributed to more subdued wage increases. The coordination of wage bargaining rounds with centrally-established agreement levels, but a local distribution of wages, mean that the cost to society of excessive agreements is accounted 5 for and that market forces exercise a restraining influence on wage demands at local level. The tendency towards a greater element of local wage formation has made the wage process more flexible during the 1990s. Other important explanations are that new compensation methods, such as bonus wages and profit-sharing have been introduced in many areas of the labour market, which has probably increased flexibility. Companies are then able to reduce their payroll expense to some extent during downturns in the economy. During the 1990s, there has also been a development towards limited period employments, which should lead to greater flexibility in the labour market.

The total recruitment needs in health and welfare professions are estimated by the Swedish National Labour Market Administration (AMS) to be approximately 527 000 persons up to the year 2015, of which 180 000 are professions requiring university level training and 347 000 are professions requiring upper secondary school level 7 training, such as care personnel. Given the present training dimensions, this entails a deficit of around 22 000 persons a year up to the year 2015. The low wages make new recruitment difficult and the number of applicants with the upper secondary school care programmes as their first choice has  7  Swedish National Labour Market Administration (AMS), Den framtida personalförsörjningen inom vård och omsorg - Tillgång och rekryteringsbehov fram till år 2015 (Future personnel supply in health and welfare - Supply and recruitment needs up to the year 2015), Ura 2002:3. BIS Review 63/2002  5  8  declined nationwide from approximately 12 000 persons in 1990 to around 3000 in 2001. Prior to the present academic year, there were only 11 people who had the care programme as their first choice here in Stockholm county. These groups have market forces behind them. Nurses and teachers are examples of professional groups that have received support from market forces to raise their wages in recent years. The large demand in relation to supply has meant that 9 nurses have increased their wages by an average of 25 per cent over the past five years.