samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In such a scenario the Swedish economy could experience a more pronounced slow-down. Focus on the U.S. economy… During the 1990s the United States experienced its longest economic upswing ever without any serious signs of accelerating price inflation. A more productive economy, with strong competition and more efficient product and labour markets, accompanied by advances in computer and telecom technology, are said to have contributed to a higher rate of potential growth. Even so – or perhaps as a consequence of this – the euphoria led to growing imbalances. The rapidly rising stock markets in the late 1990s seem to have stemmed from unduly high expectations of future profits and incomes. Partly in view of the booming stock market, households stepped up their expenditure on consumption in excess of current income. Corporate investment expanded rapidly to meet the growing demand. High share prices stimulated the procurement of venture capital and generated a plentiful supply. The growth of demand in relation to the expansion of the U.S. economy's supply side was proceeding at a rate that was based on expectations that simply could not be fulfilled. American households pledged future incomes for current consumption to such an extent that their savings no longer sufficed to finance corporate investment. The saving deficit in the private sector grew, as could be seen from the rising deficits on the current account, and large amounts of capital had to be imported.

For many banks, perhaps the ideal situation would be one in which they could adopt the same approach in every jurisdiction in which it operates. The widest possible adoption of Basel II would certainly have the benefit of reducing supervisory burden for banks, but it would have benefits for supervisors as well. Because Basel II fosters enhanced risk management, more effective supervision, greater transparency and financial stability, I believe that it is in many countries’ best interest to adopt the new Framework. Having said that, however, we also have to recognise that countries are in varying states of preparedness to adopt Basel II. When I talk with my fellow supervisors, I therefore emphasise the benefits of Basel II, but I also encourage them to get the basics right and not jump into Basel II implementation before they are ready. Even so, I believe that it can be extremely useful for countries to start implementing already some of the principles behind pillars 2 and 3 of the framework as preparation for the formal transition. This dialogue takes many forms. In addition to the informal discussions that I and my fellow Committee members have with our non-Committee member colleagues, we also have several formal mechanisms in place. For example, the Committee has a long-standing working group that includes representatives from sixteen non-member countries, and we have increased our interaction with this working group.
It is said that a central bank must have foresight, so that it can take action in time and contribute to the stability of the economy. Foresight on a different level was demonstrated by Nicolai Rygg long before the invasion of Norway. Two years earlier, in 1938, Rygg had assigned a secret mission to the 21-year old Ivar Borg. Every morning for several months, the young man was locked into the Bank’s vault to pack up the gold reserves. When German troops were approaching Oslo, the gold was ready to be quickly loaded onto pre-requisitioned lorries and, after a dramatic escape, was safely shipped out of the country. The gold reserves gave the government-in-exile in London the financial freedom to pursue its activities. A central bank safeguards value. Norges Bank no longer guards the nation’s gold. The gold was sold long ago. Today, the Bank manages the nation’s income from the black gold beneath our seas. This will provide financial freedom of action for future generations. A well-functioning monetary system with stability in the value of money is still at the core of Norges Bank’s public mission, as it has been for the past two hundred years. Inadequate access to reliable means of payment affects trade in goods and services and can cause the economy to stall – now, as then. At the same time, the role of the central bank has evolved over time, requiring it to adapt to a constantly changing stage.

Since the Bank was established in 1816, its position has been regulated through specific legislation. But confidence will always be essential for true central bank independence. That confidence is only on loan. Changing circumstances require the ability to adapt and think differently, and the same applies to central banks. What matters is results, and how they are achieved. Norges Bank’s first demanding objective – to restore confidence in the monetary system – was achieved and made an important contribution to the success of the nation building process of the 19th century. The Chair of the Bank’s first board of directors, Jacob Fredrik Oxholm, also enjoyed success in other arenas. He was an acclaimed amateur actor – right here in Trondheim. The institution he directed – Norges Bank – is not looking for acclaim and enthusiastic cheering. The Bank has a more sober objective – to be a useful public institution and a dependable guardian of Norway’s monetary system. But just tonight, we would not say no to a little applause. And let me wish Norges Bank many happy returns! BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
When we look at successful examples of technology adoption, it’s not just about state-of-the-art technology. It’s about how you manage the change – especially changes to mindsets. It takes time and effort to convince people that a new technology is worth the cost, the effort or the potential risk. 16. This is often the case with larger organisations, especially official institutions like the HKMA. We set up the FFO in early 2016 precisely to serve as a dedicated agent to drive changes and take practical steps to turn ideas into reality. 17. The FFO has contributed to a number of Fintech initiatives in the past three years – from cybersecurity to supervisory sandbox, open API, the FPS, and the rest of the seven Smart Banking initiatives. But I must stress that the FFO is not working in isolation. Other parts of the HKMA must work alongside it, and of course it must work with the banking, technology and even legal sectors. 18. The FFO has essentially served as the coordination point of this collective effort. This has enabled a “change” mindset to spread throughout our organisation and among our partners. And the result is the impressive Fintech developments we have seen in the last few years. 19. A change agent does not have to come from within. Sometimes, competition is an effective driver for innovation. One good example is the imminent entry of virtual banks in Hong Kong.

To this end, the functions of the Asian office have evolved and expanded over time – from organisation of meetings and seminars to conducting research, to providing dealing and banking services. And the office has grown from a start-up staff of six to its current 33. We are celebrating this occasion in this lovely restaurant above the Star Ferry – which is an icon in Hong Kong and a symbol of quality and value-for-money service. The BIS Asian office is also a "STAR" entity. The word "STAR" has been chosen carefully and with good reason – each letter of the word symbolises and embodies the excellence of BIS' activities: S:  Surveillance – The Asian office is clearly a star performer in its surveillance work on regional economic and financial developments. This is self-evident from reading the background notes prepared on the region for various BIS and regional central bank meetings. T:  Topical studies and research – The Asian office, with its pool of economists and financial experts, is well placed to conduct research. Under the auspices of the Asian research programme initiated in 2006, many topics that are of interest and relevance to Asian central banks have been, and continue to be, explored and developed. The BIS has made important contributions in this area, with its research providing useful information and insight for policymakers in the region.
P/E ratios with different combinations of earnings growth & expected return  Earning Earnin s growth % gs  Expected return %  4.5  4.0 ---  5.0 100  6.0 33  3.5  100  33  20  2.5  33  20  14 Trend  In order to justify an upward shift in the P/E ratio from just under 15 to between 30 and 35, the expected real return has to be lower and/or expected earnings growth needs to be higher. A P/E ratio at the current level can be explained if, for example:  2  3  The picture in Sweden is somewhat different, with signs of a strengthening of the earnings trend in the period 1982-99, though this is not visible in the figure. The krona’s depreciation after 1992 seems to have been the main factor here. Earnings per share showed little, if any, improvement from 1982 to 1990. However, cyclical fluctuations and changes connected with the krona’s marked depreciation should not be central issues for our discussion here. As the stock market trend in both the shorter and the longer term has been largely the same in the United States and Sweden and the P/E ratio in both cases is between 30 and 35, there are grounds for assuming that the earnings trend has also been at least approximately the same. See Gordon, M J (1962), The Investment, Financing and Valuation of the Corporation, Homewood (Irwin).

Progressive economic growth will continue in this case. Any delay would require us to raise the key rate more significantly in the future, or even to pursue tight monetary policy. After today’s increase in the key rate, we have approached the threshold between accommodative and neutral policy. Taking into account the time lag effects of policy, monetary conditions will generally stay accommodative for a while longer. We will be closely monitoring how the market will be adjusting to our decisions. I would now dwell on the factors of our today’s decision. I will start out with inflation. Today, the acceleration of price growth is absolutely obvious across a wide range of products and services. This is caused not only by one-off factors and the pass-through of higher production costs, but also by the stronger impact of the steady component of price dynamics to an increasingly greater extent. In our opinion, this growth reflects the monetary nature of inflation. It is the fast rebound of aggregate demand exceeding the capacity to expand supply that has sped up price growth. As demand is high, this enables producers to pass through their increased costs to end-user prices. Production costs have really risen. Specifically, the growth of world prices for raw products (primarily, for wheat, steel, oil, and timber) has boosted production costs of many goods and services in the consumer basket. For instance, global steel prices have surged by 50–70% over six months.
Svein Gjedrem: The conduct of monetary policy Introductory statement by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the hearing before the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs of the Storting (Norwegian parliament), Oslo, 28 September 2004. The text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The statement is based, among other things, on the assessments in Norges Bank’s Annual Report for 2003 and Inflation Report 2/2004. The  Charts in pdf-format can be found on the Norges Bank’s website. *  *  *  I would like to take this opportunity to thank the Storting for again inviting Norges Bank to appear before this Committee to report and answer questions on monetary policy in connection with the Storting’s deliberations on the Government’s credit report. Inflation-targeting countries Price stability, in the sense of low and stable inflation, is the objective of monetary policy in a number of countries. Historical experience from Norway and other countries has shown that high inflation has resulted in unstable output and employment. In addition, a fall in the price level will often accompany a period of decline. The first inflation target was introduced in New Zealand in 1990. Canada followed in 1991, the UK in 1992, and Sweden and Australia in 1993. In Norway, the government issued a regulation introducing an inflation target in 2001. Monetary policy in euro area countries and Switzerland is also aimed at price stability, even though this is not referred to as inflation targeting in these countries.

Mr. Yam talks about the implementation of financial policies in the HKSAR. Address by the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Mr. Joseph Yam, at a symposium in commemoration of the 9th anniversary of the promulgation of the Basic Law of the HKSAR in Hong Kong on 10 April 1999. __________________________________________________________________________________ Ms Ko, Ladies and Gentlemen, 1. I am very honoured to be invited today to address this Seminar. The Basic Law is the constitutional instrument of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The legal protection offered by the Basic Law has, to a very great extent, contributed to Hong Kong’s monetary stability during the political transition and has enabled Hong Kong to withstand the severe challenges brought about by the unprecedented financial crisis. I would like to take this opportunity to examine the implementation of financial policies in the HKSAR. I shall discuss with you the two main areas relating to financial policies under the concepts of “one country, two systems” and “Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong” as well as the legal protection offered by the Basic Law. The first of these is the monetary autonomy enjoyed by the HKSAR. The second is the monetary relationship between Hong Kong and the Mainland.
It is a system centred on overnight and term credit to banks. So our system was tailor-made to be used as an instrument to resist a banking crisis. In the event, it was flexible enough to be activated – with only limited adjustments – in emergency conditions. The need to tackle the collapse of private arbitrage motivated two features of our enhanced credit support: first, the full, unlimited accommodation of banks’ demands for central bank credit at our policy interest rate contributed to repair the collapse of interbank lending; second, the extension of central bank credit provision to longer maturities, up to one year, was a substitute for market intertemporal trading. 5  For example, in late 2006 a new synthetic index became available for the first time which could be used to price sub-prime related tranches of credit derivatives. This new market price probably aggregated information about the quality of the underlying contracts, which was too dispersed or inaccessible before. This might have brought awareness of the precarious bases of the financial structures that were being traded. 4  BIS Review 29/2010  Our actions would not have been effective if they had not been enshrined in our mediumterm monetary policy framework. Our definition of price stability steered expectations in a sufficiently firm manner. So the ECB can dispense with making promises about the future path of the monetary policy stance. The ECB’s approach to steering market expectations is based on comparing inflation outcomes and projections with our quantitative definition of price stability.

Ardian Fullani: Central banking in the time of integration Conclusions by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the Fifth Conference of the Bank of Albania on “Central Banking in the Time of Integration”, Tirana, 25 March 2005. *  *  *  Dear friends! During two days of the Fifth Conference of the Bank of Albania on “Central Banking in time of integration”, having guests from the country and international institutions, personalities of academic and banking area, too many important ideas and suggestions emerged. The tight agenda did not allow detailed discussion on them; however, I hope that they will serve as starting points for further debates and analyses to sort out central bank challenges in the time of integration. It is somewhat difficult to make a concise summary of numerous papers presented in this conference. I would categorize the main conclusion into two large groups according to the main pillars of the central bank, that is the price stability and the financial sector stability. Concerning the first pillar, that of price stability, the discussions were focused mainly on the monetary policy effectiveness and central bank independence. To maintain stability is more difficult than to achieve it. Prof. Bolle indicated in a very excellent way that current price stability should be considered as fragile, which requires constant efforts, either by the BoA or by other institutions.
Inflation in the recreation, hospitality and tourism sub-index recorded stood at 6,9% in February, the same rate as in December. For more details on these sub-indices, see Pacce, M., A. del Río and I. Sánchez-García (2022), “The recent performance of underlying inflation in the euro area and in Spain”, Analytical Articles, Economic Bulletin 3/2022, Banco de España. 12  This sub-index includes “Clothing and footwear”, “Housing” excluding energy and home maintenance expenditure, “Health”, “Communications”, “Education” and “Miscellaneous goods and services”. It includes rental of households’ main residence. 5  increases13. This is an open question and hence a dimension that should be carefully monitored. Our attention is now also turning to the possible emergence of second round effects on inflation. In 2022, compensation per employee increased by 4.6%, which implies a significant fall in real wages, with some heterogeneity across countries. In parallel, firms’ profit margins have expanded in many sectors since the beginning of 2021 (after falling significantly in 2020), indicating a high rate of pass-through of cost increases to selling prices. The baseline projection scenario assumes that workers will gradually recover their pre-shock purchasing power at the end of the forecast horizon,14 while the increase in firms' unit labour costs is expected to be lower than the increase in wage payments – taking into account projected productivity gains so that firms’ profit margins could remain steady over the forecasting period as a whole.

As we emphasised in our monetary strategy review approved in July 2021, financial stability should be seen as a prerequisite for price stability.1 In addition, we took a further step in the process of tightening our monetary policy stance in response to the outlook for euro area inflation, which is projected to remain too high for too long. In line with our intentions already anticipated at our February meeting, we increased interest rates by 50 basis points (bp), bringing the deposit facility rate (DFR) to 3%. This represents a cumulative increase of 350 bp since July last year. As to our future monetary policy path, the financial tensions that broke out before our meeting imply an additional element of uncertainty around the growth and inflation baseline scenario. This extra uncertainty makes the data-dependent approach for our decisions even more important. Our future monetary policy will depend on how the different sources of risks, including those witnessed on the financial markets in the last few weeks, materialise. We also provided more detail on what will guide our assessment of the inflation outlook and, therefore, our monetary policy decisions. In particular, we announced that this assessment will depend on three main factors. First, incoming economic and financial data. Second, the of underlying inflation dynamics. And lastly, the strength of monetary policy transmission. I will now elaborate on these three factors. The first is our assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data.
Combined, these developments point towards low wage growth in the coming years. We now expect wage growth to be below 2 percent in 2020 and even slightly lower in 2021. Chart: Temporarily higher inflation The sharp krone depreciation will likely lead to a temporary pronounced rise in inflation. Higher energy prices and increased costs owing to the coronavirus outbreak may also push up inflation ahead. On the other hand, we believe that high unemployment and low wage growth will restrain inflation in the somewhat longer term. Inflation is therefore likely to rise in the year ahead, moderating thereafter. Let me conclude. The Norwegian economy is in a historically deep downturn. There is substantial uncertainty. The situation is most serious for those who become more permanently unemployed. Many firms will not recover. At the same time, it should be emphasised that the Norwegian economy is well equipped to meet the challenges facing us. We have a business sector that has already proved its adaptability. New firms will emerge, and existing firms will adapt. We also have room for manoeuvre in economic policy. 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  In recent weeks, the authorities have implemented powerful fiscal policy measures. At the same time, the policy rate has been reduced to zero percent. We also have strong banks that can withstand losses and that have the capacity to provide credit. We note that banks have now followed up our policy rate cuts and are offering households and firms record-low lending rates.

Low interest rates reduce borrowing costs, making it easier for indebted Norwegian firms and households to weather a demanding period. As the situation normalises, low interest rates will support a faster rebound in activity. This may reduce the risk of unemployment becoming entrenched at a high level. Chart: Activity will pick up gradually This chart shows the projections from the monetary policy meeting on 6 May and the projections published in early March. As we can see, the outlook for the Norwegian economy changed markedly in the course of a few weeks. Uncertainty about the economic outlook is unusually high. We have assumed that the containment measures will be gradually scaled back and that activity in the Norwegian economy picks up ahead. But it will nonetheless take time for activity to return to its pre-pandemic level. Chart: Unemployment is expected to decline Unemployment has risen to a very high level. Many of those now out of work have been furloughed temporarily. As containment measures are scaled back, many of these employees are likely to return to their jobs. Nevertheless, there is reason to expect that a number of businesses will have to close, with furloughed employees made redundant. Our assessment is therefore that it will take time for unemployment to fall back. Chart: Prospects for low wage growth High unemployment affects the prospects for wage growth. Unemployment is at a historically high level, profitability has declined substantially in much of the business sector and oil prices have fallen.