samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Without firm guidance on the goals of monetary policy, market participants could lose their point of reference which could result in them adjusting their longer-term inflation expectations as a mere reflection of current circumstances rather than taking into account the ability of the central bank to achieve its goal over the medium term. By contrast, in an economy in which inflation expectations are solidly anchored, each person can make well-informed financial decisions. A genuine understanding of monetary policy and its goal – price stability, and therefore the preservation of the purchasing power of the euro – also creates the best conditions for correct price and wage formation in markets, whereby all parties concerned meet their obligations and second-round effects on wage and price setting stemming from transitory price increases (e.g. oil, commodities, food) are thus avoided. Second, effective communication also enhances short-term predictability. 3 Through their actions, central banks can directly control very short-term interest rates. However, given that for consumption and investment decisions the longer-term interest rates are more relevant, the whole yield curve is relevant for the effectiveness of monetary policy. Medium- and longterm interest rates largely depend on private expectations regarding future central bank decisions. Lack of effective central bank communication would eventually lead to higher, more volatile, levels of long-term interest rates, which could be detrimental to economic activity.

As expected, the very diverse European national media are playing a key role in the transmission of the information to the various audiences of the ECB. Experience so far shows that the approach works well and that the media have contributed to a homogeneous understanding of the role and tasks of the ECB. 4 As the “porte-parole” of the ECB and its Governing Council, I think we have shown our capacity to communicate in unison with a high level of team spirit in interaction with a highly sophisticated and complex media network dealing with 320 million European citizens speaking 13 languages. It must be underlined that the European Central Bank decided from the very beginning to embark on a bold concept of transparency. On 1st January 1999, at the moment of the start of the euro, the state of the art of central banking was, not to say anything immediately after each decision on monetary policy, let observers and markets guess what had been the reasoning of the central bank and publish five or six weeks afterwards, the reasons why the decision was made in the form of “minutes of the decision-making college”. We decided from the first day of the euro that we would have a significantly higher level of transparency. First, we thought it was necessary to give to the public the economic and monetary diagnosis of the Governing Council, and the reasons why the monetary policy decision was taken, immediately after the meeting.
Overall, our monetary policy measures are effective, and are gradually bringing inflation back to a path that is consistent with price stability over the medium term. This takes time, and it requires determination and patience. 1 I would like to thank Sören Radde and Fédéric Holm-Hadulla for their contributions to this speech. 2 See Ciccarelli, M. and Osbat, C. (eds. ), “Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences”, Occasional  Paper Series, No 181, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, January 2017, and the references cited therein. 3 At the level of individual euro area countries, a large proportion of specifications also displays a significant  Phillips curve slope, albeit with the exception of some euro area countries, probably on account of confounding factors related to global exposures and persistent structural changes. However, the finding that domestic cyclical conditions were an important driver of the disinflationary period from 2012 to 2014 is common to all countries. 4 Theoretically, the impact of population ageing on inflation may go both ways, but the bulk of the literature points  to a negative effect. See e.g. Bullard, J., Garriga, C., and Waller, C.J., “Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 94, No 6, 2012; Shirakawa, M., “Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance: Japanese Experiences”, Opening Remark at BOJ-IMES Conference, Bank of Japan, 2012; Carvalho, C., Ferrero, A. and Nechio, F., “Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism”, European Economic Review, North-Holland, April 2016.

India started introducing Islamic financial products and services last year. It has launched its first Islamic stock market index on the Mumbai stock exchange and also licenced a non-bank financing company to operate on Shariah principles. As more countries cater for Islamic finance, the scope for cross-border Islamic finance increases. We are beginning to see more cross-border sukuk issuance within Asia as well as between the Middle East and Asia. Singapore has benefitted from this favourable global environment for Islamic finance. •  Singapore is the only non-Muslim majority country among the top 15 countries for Islamic finance. •  Islamic assets under management have surged nearly fourfold over the last five years. More than 40% of the Islamic assets in Singapore are managed by our asset management industry. •  15 banks are involved in Islamic banking, double the number five years ago. They hold about a third of the Islamic assets in Singapore. •  The rest of the Islamic assets are in outstanding sukuk and takaful. Singapore has had nearly 30 sukuk issuances to-date, with seven in 2013 alone. The prospects for Islamic finance in Singapore look bright. •  More funds continue to be established here, to meet demand from clients in Asia as well as from the Middle East. •  Several corporations have established sukuk programmes in Singapore to tap the market over the next few years. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  We can grow faster when we grow together.
One-way intervention has potentially significant costs as well as benefits – costs which go well beyond the risk of substantial capital loss in the event of future exchange rate realignment. These include growing implementation problems, which are likely to be particularly acute in very open economies, and a potentially serious misallocation of domestic resources. It will not be in the interests of the Asian countries concerned to ignore these issues. That is why I find the so called Bretton Woods II hypothesis – or at least the proposition that Asian central banks will have a more or less open ended commitment to financing ever increasing US deficits – rather implausible, at least as a prediction of what is likely to happen in the medium term, rather than as a description of the past few years. It assumes the continuation of unsustainable policies, which are not in the interests of the countries concerned. I concede however, that it is hard to make a precise forecast about the timing of a policy shift in Asia. And it is worth bearing in mind that this may depend on global and regional political considerations as much as on economic and financial pressures. So given these uncertainties over the evolution of global imbalances, what should we do about them? There is clearly no case for turning the clock back and re-introducing the constraints that characterised the genuine Bretton Woods system.

The continued growth in the global economy as well as the experience of recent years has shown us how fast the oil market can spiral out of control, given the shortage of surplus production and refining capacity. Consequently, we cannot fully exclude the possibility that the current period of calm is only transitory. We are currently observing an unusual situation of weak volatility on financial markets and low risk premiums on investments. These two variables can change direction very quickly. Consequently, we must remain on our guard since abrupt movements in financial variables – in stock prices as well as in exchange rates – have an immediate impact on our economy due to its considerable openness to foreign transactions and its relative specialisation in the production of financial services. A comfortable position, in historical terms With the Swiss economy close to full employment, the stability of prices secured over a period of several years now and a liberal and open economy making it possible to make full use of monetary policy instruments, the Swiss National Bank currently operates in a comfortable environment. In this year – the year that marks the hundredth anniversary of the establishment of our bank – we should not lose sight of the fact that our predecessors often faced situations that were far more difficult than those we face today.
The Bank of Albania became also an important institution for the development of the financial and economic systems in Albania. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The challenges of the past 20 years have transformed the central Bank into a modern, responsible and credible institution; a centre of professionalism; an institution that applies the most modern methods of monetary management; the heart of the financial system. Aware of the decisive role that modern theories on economic growth assign to institutions for the prosperity of a nation, and taking advantage of the support from the political class and the trust of the Albanian society during these 20 years, the Bank of Albania has undertaken to transform itself into a modern institution and a dignified public entity across the institutional, moral, professional, ethical and intellectual dimensions. The Bank of Albania considers this as a highly significant task and contribution to state formation and prosperity in the future. Its efforts for the infrastructural and conceptual modernisation of the institution, including the Bank’s construction projects during the last three years, are a requisite to guarantee contemporary standards for the management of the activities of the institution. In other words, this literally implies rapid approximation with homologous institutions in Europe. Upon the completion of these projects, the Bank of Albania will be more opened to the public that will benefit from financial education policies, scientific research, library services, and legislative, history, museum, and numismatic-related activities.

These actions all add to the firm’s stock of cultural capital. Like other forms of tangible and intangible capital, cultural capital grows and shrinks over time – purposeful investments and managerial focus can add to it, while neglect or misconduct can reduce it. Depletion of cultural capital can adversely impact the firm’s productive capacity and value. This reflects, for example, changes to employees’ attitudes and practices (“how we do things”), as well as their beliefs and values (“the way things should be done”). In the Whitepaper, mthey need to recognize the importance of this critical asset, be able to measure it, and understand the types of investment needed to sustain it and the forces that may cause it to depreciate. Since the New York Fed began to highlight the need for a focus on culture reform in financial services, measurement has consistently been raised as a challenge. While measuring culture may not be as straightforward as measurement approaches for more traditional assets and risks, it is possible to gain valuable insights through a multi-layered and patient approach. Through the use of surveys, interviews, focus groups, behavioral analytics, network analyses, and board effectiveness assessments, firms can triangulate from multiple inputs and develop a view of how high or low their cultural capital is, both in an absolute and relative sense.
In H1 2022, growth has continued and broadened across sectors, coming in at 4.4% on a year-on-year basis. The economy is currently 6% above its pre-pandemic levels. The output gap is positive at 0.6% of potential GDP, meaning the economy is operating slightly above its underlying capacity. The external-oriented sectors such as manufacturing and financial services are facing some headwinds in light of weaker growth prospects in the global economy. But the domestic-oriented and travel-related sectors are performing strongly, benefitting from the easing of mobility and travel restrictions here and in the region. The labour market has tightened and wage growth is running ahead of productivity gains. The seasonally adjusted resident unemployment rate has declined to 3.0%, the lowest rate since end-2018. Yet, total employment is still 2.5% below the pre-pandemic level – mainly because Singapore lost 15% of its non-resident workforce since December 2019. Job vacancies are at record high levels with broad based increases across sectors. The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is at its highest level since 1998. Resident wages have risen by an average 6.2% year-on-year over the past three quarters, running slightly ahead of real productivity growth of 5.5%. Imported inflation reflecting supply disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly added to price pressures. Import prices facing Singapore have surged by 27% in May this year, compared to the same period last year. About 80% of this was contributed by higher oil and food prices.

W A Wijewardena: The role of statistics and challenges for statisticians Keynote address by Mr W A Wijewardena, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at the Stat Day, organized by University of Colombo, Colombo, 26 March 2009. *  *  *  Consciously or unconsciously, we use statistics in everything we do in our day to day life. When we say that it rained yesterday, we simply pronounce a fact we have observed as having happened. When we say that it is raining now, we again mention something that we have observed as happening. When we say that it will rain tomorrow, we are predicting a future event. Our life is full of such statements: facts that have been experienced by us in the past, facts that are happening now and being experienced in the present and facts that we feel would happen in the future. What has happened and is happening now are our personal experiences. What will happen are our learned judgements based on our experiences. If we keep these experiences and learned judgments to ourselves, then, it would not form the subject matter of statistics. It becomes statistics only when we share them with others. Hence, statistics is basically, observing, analysing, learning and sharing facts about the real world. That sharing of facts need not necessarily be in quantitative or measurable form. They can be simple expressions in verbal form so that others could form opinions on the happenings in the real world.
The ambitions to limit the build-up of debt in the public sector has led to rapidly increasingly indebtedness in the private sector instead. This can create new risks in the longer run. The debt problem is something governments, central banks and other authorities must tackle jointly. The financial crisis has also led to major changes in central bank balance sheets. For example, the Federal Reserve bought 90 per cent of all newly issued mortgage-based securities for a period. 32 Similar actions in several countries have significantly increased the risk exposure of central banks. 33 From 2009 and onwards, the ECB purchased large volumes of government securities issued by European governments. The Riksbank has made monetary policy more expansionary by buying Swedish government bonds once the policy rate had already been cut substantially and the scope for further rate cuts was not sufficient. Today, the Riksbank owns about one third of the outstanding stock of nominal government securities. The increased balance sheet totals of central banks poses risks for future economic losses, which may have consequences for monetary policy, or for the autonomy of central banks. Theoretically, a central bank’s losses can be so large that it is either forced to create more money, with the potential risks to price stability this entails, or request funding from the public treasury, something which could affect the degree of autonomy. In addition, the reduction in  31  See Leeper (2011). 32  See Mehrling (2014). 33  See Archer and Moser-Boehm (2013).

11 As a result of this arrangement and by pledging its foreign currency reserve, the Riksbank could lend a total of approximately SEK 200 billion in US dollars. Conversely, swap agreements were also established between the Riksbank and two of the Baltic central banks. 12 These experiences indicate that, in the future, even tougher requirements will be placed on international cooperation between central banks. How should we organise this in the best way? Can we expect other countries’ central banks to always be able to assist with currency in a crisis situation or must special agreements be drawn up? The development also raises the issue of whether an international ‘lender of last resort’ is needed. 13 These questions are particularly important for Sweden, which has its own small currency. And they will become even more relevant if the major Swedish bank Nordea carries out its plan to change from a subsidiary to a branch structure. With the current subsidiary structure, the central banks in the countries where Nordea has subsidiaries are responsible for providing ELA to them. After the transformation into a branch structure, the Riksbank will take on the main responsibility for providing ELA, should it be needed. This means that the Riksbank will have a greater need of being able to obtain foreign currency in a crisis situation.
The rapid growth of the domestic economy inevitably raises the question of whether this is consistent in the long run with the economic stability that has been achieved in recent years. The growing current account deficit clearly preaches caution and underscores the need for sufficiently tight monetary and fiscal conditions. Growth in 1997 was primarily driven by growing private consumption and fixed investment. Private consumption rose by 6 percent and fixed investment by 9.9 percent. Over the last two years fixed investment has increased sharply following many years of contraction. Investment in power-intensive industry has played an important role, as has investment in commercial buildings. Housing investment has also begun to recover during the last two years but not sufficiently to offset the decline in the previous year. Current Account Deficit The current account deficit turned out smaller in 1997 than had been expected, or just in excess of 8 billion kronur. Merchandise imports grew by 5.9 percent in volume terms, with consumer goods accounting for three-fifths of the increase and investment goods for less than a third. Here it needs to be borne in mind that it may have been mere coincidence whether imports for power-intensive industrial projects were recorded in 1997 or 1998. More appear to have been recorded in 1998 than expected. Merchandise exports grew by less than 2 percent in volume terms, which is not a particularly good performance. The growth of exports is in fact too slow in relation to, for example, the expansion of world trade.

It is a matter of concern that the budgeted improvement in the Treasury’s finances in 1998 is less than warranted by the automatic stabilizers alone and that, all other things equal, the degree of fiscal restraint on domestic demand in 1998 will be less than last year. In preparations for the 1999 budget it is therefore of paramount importance, in light of economic conditions, to aim for a substantial Treasury surplus. The same considerations, of course, apply to the implementation of the 1998 budget, and any excess revenue should be used to improve the financial balance rather then end up as extra spending. I say this because there are limits on what monetary policy can accomplish to restrain domestic demand in the current circumstances. Local government finances deteriorated somewhat in 1997. The combined revenue deficit of the 14 largest municipalities was 2.9 billion kronur. It is estimated that local government debt increased from 36 billion kronur to 42 billion kronur in 1997. General government debt in relation to GDP declined from 56 percent in 1996 to 52.7 percent in 1997, which, in light of the Maastricht limit on government debt of 60 percent of GDP, is a fairly good debt position. Monetary Developments BIS Review 42/1998  -3-  The Central Bank’s principal target remains price stability. The Bank’s monetary instruments primarily influence inflation in the long run, and it is generally accepted that price stability is an important precondition for economic growth and improved living standards.
The new legislation retains some of the internal flexibility mechanisms (such as opt-outs and unilateral changes by the employer to working conditions) that were conceived for ailing firms and were widely used during the last recession in the Spanish economy and, to a lesser extent, in the recent crisis. However, the reform automatically extends the term of agreements following their end until a new agreement is signed and prevents firm-level agreements from setting lower salaries than those established in the corresponding sectoral agreement. The extent to which these changes may affect the collective bargaining process, negotiated wage increases and employment in the medium term, especially in those firms with productivity levels below the sector average, will need to be analysed. Moreover, following the intensive and effective use made of furlough schemes during the COVID-19 pandemic, the reform has introduced some changes to the definition and  17  In this respect, various Banco de España reports consider different contractual alternatives that would allow for a more equitable distribution of job protection for workers, based on their work experience, while retaining some flexibility in firms’ hiring. 15  procedures associated with these schemes to streamline their use in the future. The socalled RED mechanism has also been established, consisting of two forms: a cyclical form, which is designed for macroeconomic downturns, and a sectoral form, which envisages situations where permanent changes arise that create a need for vocational reskilling in an industry.

All stakeholders, including the financial institutions, payment system providers, the authorities, the corporate sector, and the consumers, have their respective roles to play to support this national agenda to reduce the use of paper-based payment instruments, particularly cheques, in Malaysia. In this regard, the Government had recently announced in the 2006 Budget its intent to increase the acceptance of electronic means of payment with the Government and to promote the use of epayments nationwide. This should provide a catalyst for the adoption of e-payments on a national scale, as most individuals and businesses have payment transactions with the Government. Key to making this a success is the need to review the business and operating practices and address any impediments that may hinder the use of e-payments. These practices ranges from the inability to store and collect bank account numbers, acknowledging electronic payment and receipt notices, instructing payments electronically, and many more that may be identified during the discussions at this forum. All corporations and institutions that are present at this forum should consider undertaking a business process reengineering in your own organisation to fully use the e-payment channels that are being offered by the service providers and the financial institutions.