samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But the period was not free of crisis. •  The Global Cyber Crisis of 2034 triggered the deepest recession in Singapore’s history, with the economy contracting by 8.5% that year. •  The resurgence of smallpox and resultant pandemic in 2039 plunged the global economy into a recession that lasted two years, not to mention the tragic toll on human lives. It remains till today the darkest period in our nation’s history. 2041–2065: Climate change mitigation and adaptation By 2040, climate change had become the defining issue facing the global economy, including Singapore. It has been the key driver of the transformation of our economy over the last 25 years. As recently as 50 years ago, climate change was still a matter of debate internationally, although it was known that global surface temperatures had been rising since 1850. •  But by 2020, it had been established firmly that man-made emissions of greenhouse gases were the dominant cause of global warming and that climate change on an existential scale was inevitable if urgent actions were not taken. •  It took the global community another 10 years to reach an agreement on carbon emission reductions. The Global Climate Change Compact of 2030 – with subsequent reviews every ten years – was probably the most important international agreement in history. •  By committing countries to significant absolute reductions in carbon emissions, it helped slow down and eventually arrest global warming, thereby forestalling calamitous changes in the climate.

In 2005, the government decided to allow two casinos to operate within integrated resorts that also included leisure facilities, business and convention zones, and high-end retail outlets. This sparked the growth of a thriving entertainment services industry over the next few decades, attracting the burgeoning Asian middle class. This second phase of our economic development essentially saw the transition of Singapore from Third World to First World. By 2010, Singapore was an affluent society and a global city, at the cross-roads of international flows of trade, investment, finance and talent. Real GDP grew an average 6.7% per annum during this period. It was also a period in which the economy was buffeted by one crisis after another: •  the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998;  •  the collapse of the global IT industry in 2001;  •  the spread of the deadly SARS virus in 2003; and  •  the Global Financial Crisis in 2008  But the economy grew in resilience, rebounding sharply and emerging stronger after each economic shock. 2011–2025: Demographic slowdown and economic restructuring The dominant theme in the third phase of Singapore’s economic history was the overcoming of resource constraints through a significant restructuring of the economy. While Singapore had always been short of land and labour, these constraints came to a head in the 2010s. By 2011, annual growth in the total working age population had declined to less than 3%, and continued to fall steadily over the decade.
The associated shifts in market power, too, might plausibly have altered some of the key macro-economic relationships in the economy (De Loecker and Eeckhout (2017)). They may have influenced the pricing and provision of goods and services in the economy and hence the Phillips curve. And they may have influenced the amount of investment and innovation undertaken by firms and hence the aggregate demand curve (Aghion et al (2005)). They, too, might thus have a bearing on the setting of monetary policy. These structural shifts in product and labour markets may, in some cases, have had common cause. For example, network economies of scale and scope could potentially have increased some companies’ market power both over their labour inputs (through monopsony effects) and product outputs (through monopoly effects). This could show up in both a falling labour and a rising profit share, with potential macro-economic implications for activity, costs and prices (Autor et al (2017), Barkai (2017)). 1  As Blanchard (2008) said, “How mark-ups move, in response to what, and why, is however nearly terra incognita for macro.” Some notable papers that discuss the impact of product market developments on the macro-economy include Cacciatore and Fiori (2016) and Eggertsson, Ferrero and Raffo (2014). 3 Unlike many other advanced economies, it is worth noting that the UK labour share has not been on a downward trend.

The optimal targeting rule for monetary policy is: 𝜆 𝜋𝑡 = − 𝑥𝑡 𝜅  (12)  This “Golden Rule” of monetary policy strategy simply states that the policymaker should let inflation absorb more of the adjustment, after a trade-off inducing shock, either when the relative weight on output in the loss function is high (𝜆) or when the sacrifice ratio is low (𝜅). If 𝜆 is set to its welfare-optimising level, this gives a refinement of the “Golden Rule”: 1 𝜋𝑡 = − 𝑥𝑡 𝜖  (13)  15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  15  This tells us that, once the dust has settled, the degree of market power in steady state is all that matters for monetary policymakers in our simple framework when choosing the optimal trade-off between inflation and the output gap. Specifically, the greater this degree of market power, the steeper the slope of the optimal targeting rule: the policymaker should let inflation absorb more, and the output gap less, of a trade-off inducing shock. The intuition here is simply that market power increases the degree of price flexibility in the model and lowers the sacrifice ratio. This makes it optimal to do a greater amount of (now less costly) output-smoothing in the face of trade-off inducing shocks in the optimal policy rule. It is possible to calibrate this parameter in the optimal targeting rule. Chart 18 plots the relationship between it and mark-ups.
All Saudi Banks are on target to implement all 3 Pillars of the Basle II Capital Adequacy by January 2008, using the standardized approach. During the past decade, Saudi banks have made tremendous progress in terms of offering innovative products and services, introducing sophisticated technological delivery channels including ATMs, Internet and Phone Banking. In cooperation with SAMA, banks have set up advanced payment and settlement systems, including Automated Clearing Houses and real time gross value electronic funds transfer systems such as SPAN and SARIE. The introduction of technologically advanced systems has resulted in significantly improving the level and quality of customer service, a reduction in transactional costs and increase in efficiencies and strengthening controls. Regarding the capital market, a number of measures have been taken by the Capital Market Authority to deepen and broaden the market which will enhance its role in the development of the economy. The Capital Market Authority has been issuing licenses for setting up specialized companies devoted exclusively to conducting securities business in the Kingdom. So far, it has issued 70 licenses for the purpose. Our financial system is continuing to develop and grow in strength and sophistication. The insurance sector is being reorganized under the Cooperative Insurance Law of 2003, which has entrusted SAMA with the responsibility of supervising insurance business in the country. At the time of the enactment of the Law, there was only one licensed company namely National Cooperative Company for Insurance (NCCI) operating in the country. Other companies were unlicensed.

Countries with a ceiling for inflation have the ceiling as a mark. The broken column for Sweden refers to the CPIF (the CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate). Sources: The OECD and each country’s central bank  Figure 5. KIX-weighted nominal exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100  Note. Outcomes are daily rates and forecasts refer to quarterly averages. KIX is an aggregate of the countries that are important to Sweden’s international transactions. Source: The Riksbank  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  Figure 6. The Riksbank’s and markets’ short-term forecasts for inflation Annual percentage change 1,4  1,4  1,2  1,2  1,0  1,0  0,8  0,8  0,6  0,6  0,4  0,4 Outcome  0,2  0,2  Market expectations (mean excluding the Riksbank) The Riksbank  0,0  0,0  -0,2 Jan-13  -0,2 Apr-13  Jul-13  Jan-14  Oct-13  Apr-14  Note. The Riksbank’s forecasts according to the most recently-published assessment and market expectations, compared with outcomes. The Riksbank’s figures are not entirely comparable with market participants’ expectations, as the Riksbank’s forecasts are often older. Sources: Bloomberg, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Figure 7.
However, this increase was exceeded by far by the wage hikes, which explains the sizeable widening of the external deficit, as well as the increasing inflationary pressures over the past year and a half. So, we embark upon this path, carrying a serious burden on our shoulders. I wonder what will happen the moment the increase in labour productivity slows down. Such a trend is closely connected to economic rigidities, the infrastructure-related issues, the slowdown in economic restructuring. In view of all these issues, the NBR does not embrace the idea of slowing down wage increases, but rather it advocates the creation of conditions likely to render this hike sustainable and maintain its actual nature. After all, from a nominal point of view, there is no limit to increasing wages. However, the market will admit only pay rises matched by labour productivity gains. The rest fuels inflation and the depreciation of domestic currency, taking the real level of wage rises to where it is matched by output and labour productivity. Next, I would like to make reference to the factors that establish the direct connection between the NBR’s legal tasks concerning wage increases, on the one hand, and the rise in labour productivity, on the other.

Since then, long-term rates in the US as well as in Switzerland and the euro area have continued to decline, as they have been doing since autumn 2018. The yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds currently stands at –0.45%, around 35 basis points lower than in December. The global decline in long-term interest rates reflects the heightened risks. Finally, inflation expectations have declined slightly in Switzerland by comparison with December. However, they remain within the range of 0% to 2% that we equate with price stability. Monetary policy outlook  Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to summarise the key messages with regard to our monetary policy. Inflation and inflation expectations in Switzerland are consistent with our definition of price stability. The conditional inflation forecast for the current year is slightly higher than in March, but it remains essentially unchanged looking at the medium term. Our economy is likely to grow by around 1.5% this year. However, the risks are to the downside. The Swiss franc remains highly valued, and the situation on the foreign exchange market is still fragile. Against this backdrop, our expansionary monetary policy remains necessary. With the negative interest rate and our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, we support economic activity and ensure price stability. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention. It is my pleasure to give the floor to Fritz Zurbrügg. Page 5/5
For these highly leveraged households, reducing the level of leverage will take time. They need to work with their banks and commit to debt repayment plans. 30 Hence on the whole, MAS’ assessment is that it is premature to ease property cooling measures now. It is important that we secure the gains we have made in stabilising the market and restoring financial prudence. Comprehensive measures to safeguard interests of consumers of financial products 31 On the financial regulatory and supervisory front, I will focus on measures being taken to safeguard the interests of consumers of financial products. 32 Several measures were announced recently and some will be announced soon. Let me set the context for these measures – motivating factors, overall approach, and how the various pieces fit together. 33 Three trends are shaping market for financial products. •  Low interest rates globally have spurred investors to seek better returns. •  Growing affluence and financial awareness have generated greater demand for a broader range of retail investment products. •  There has been an increased sophistication and variety in financial products offered to retail public. 34 Against this backdrop, MAS is taking a multi-pronged approach to safeguard consumer interests. First, we are enhancing regulatory safeguards for retail investors in unconventional investment schemes. Second, we will facilitate retail access to simple, lower cost products. Third, MAS will help to empower consumers with enhanced disclosure and information access. Fourth, we are raising standards of financial advice to consumers.

I now give the floor to Director Jannecke Ebbesen, who will chair the morning session. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 27/2008
Cecilia Skingsley: Experience with macroprudential policies Summary of a speech by Ms Cecilia Skingsley, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a workshop arranged by the Committee on the Global Financial System, BIS, held at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong, 10 August 2015. *  *  *  Since the global financial crisis, several countries have started implementing macroprudential policies. This workshop has provided us with the opportunity to deepen our knowledge regarding how different countries choose, calibrate and implement different kinds of macroprudential instrument. We have also gained a greater understanding of the efficiency of these instruments, as well as of how different countries incorporate macroprudential settings in the calibration of monetary policy. Although we have come a long way the past few years as regards setting up institutional frameworks and developing tools, macroprudential policy is still a relatively new policy field in many countries and there are many important issues that need to be addressed. I would like to elaborate on three of these issues. The first is the challenge of determining the proper mix of policy instruments and the right balance between them, and deciding how fast and resolute our actions should be when imbalances are building up. For example, on the one hand, we know from international experience that credit growth can be difficult to curb once it starts accelerating. This would speak in favour of prompt and strong measures.

Given the trade and financial linkages of this region with the European economy, it is of interest to also shed some light on the Europe’s growth prospects. It is encouraging that the economic recovery is expected to proceed in the monetary union, at a growth rate of slightly below 2%. It is to be supported by the ECB’s monetary policy measures, by the earlier progress made with fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, and low oil prices as well. However, similar to the global outlook, the economic recovery in the euro area is moderate and downside risks prevail. They pertain to the global uncertainties that were mentioned previously, as well as to broader geopolitical risks. It seems that the possibility of prolonged slow growth is high, and this could affect the potential to grow, as well. This asks for policies of supporting long-term economic growth, which typically calls for structural measures – more innovation; technology sharing; support to the global regulatory reforms in order to improve the resilience of the financial system; investments in human capital, education, health and infrastructure. At the end, let me once more wish you a pleasant stay in Macedonia and a successful meeting. I hope that you will have a chance to see Skopje and that you will enjoy it. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Once the joint banking supervision facility in the euro area has been established, the idea is that the ESM will take over from the EFSF and the loan can be channelled directly to the Spanish banks. This will break the links between the crisis banks’ finances and the Spanish government’s finances. The European Commission has signalled that a proposal regarding banking supervision will be announced in early September. One condition for the ESM to be able to take over the loan is, of course, that the mechanism is actually activated. This requires approval from countries that together account for 90 per cent of the capital paid into the mechanism. At present, approval is yet  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  to be given by Germany – which is awaiting a verdict from its constitutional court in mid-September. The Memorandum of Understanding regarding support to the Spanish banks makes it clear that the Spanish government is expected to carry on with its work on reducing its budget deficit to just below 3 per cent. The time limit they have been given to reach this has been extended by one year to 2014. Spain has given an account of its budget plans and the savings to be implemented to reach the target. During the summer the IMF has also given strong support to Spain’s efforts. Concern over the situation in Spain and Italy The market’s reactions to the agreement on banking support to Spain can be described as cautiously positive.

For instance, the possibility was created to use the mechanism to recapitalise a banking system directly, without burdening the country’s national debt. In this way, the link between the banks’ and the country’s credit rating can be broken. When we met to decide on the repo rate on 3 July, it was uncertain what effect the measures would have and whether they were sufficient. Crisis management but persisting concern Personally, I found it difficult to evaluate the European Council’s agreement and the other decisions taken during the spring to improve the situation in the euro area. As I noted at the monetary policy meeting, it is necessary to assess what is going on from both a short-term and a long-term perspective. In the short term, we need measures that will quickly lift the euro area out of the acute crisis, so that credible solutions can be implemented to deal with the problems in Greece and Spain and to limit the contagion effects. Long-term measures are also needed to make the countries less vulnerable to future crises. Confidence in the euro and in the monetary union also needs to be boosted. This probably requires greater collaboration within the euro area on fiscal policy as well as banking supervision and the management of banks in distress, and such solutions take time.
To achieve greater and more sustainable SME financing, it is necessary to develop market-based approaches which are commercially viable to mobilise private sector investment into the SME sector. I encourage the ADB to further work on this front, including exploring possible mechanisms such as credit enhancement and securitisation. Scaling up private sector lending would require a change in the skill mix of the ADB, in particular in strengthening its market expertise and risk management. Partnering with domestic agencies and private sector financial institutions, other international financial institutions and developed members in the region that have relevant experience would be useful in utilising their expertise, building the capacity of the Bank, and sharing credit risk. There are, of course, other important areas concerning the development of the region where the ADB could play a meaningful role as identified in the new Long-Term Strategic  BIS Review 55/2008  1  Framework. As a member of the Bank and the region, we stand ready to provide support and look forward to strengthening our cooperation with the ADB in furthering the development agenda of the region. And lastly, to successfully implement Strategy 2020, further enhancing the organisational effectiveness of the ADB will be of critical importance. We welcome the Bank’s commitment to develop a more robust results framework and to continue its institutional reforms, and we look forward to ongoing efforts by the Bank in this regard. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 55/2008

I have no doubt about the parties’ insight into the importance of the inflation target for wage formation in general. However, most agreements expire next year. It has proven during the autumn that the majority of the teacher training places in the sciences and mathematics are vacant. This is not so strange since a person who can successfully study mathematics and physics at university can also become a graduate engineer or industrialist scientist. Initial salaries between a graduate engineer and a science teacher differ by SEK3-4,000. Salaries for a competent engineer have no ceiling while for a teacher the top salary is not much above SEK20,000. Teachers have not been slow to make use of the scarcity of certain categories of teachers to demand 15% more than all other groups over a 5-year period, despite there not being a shortage of all categories of teachers. This has naturally led to protest from the Swedish Trade Union Confederation. 3  BIS Review 126/1999  If this type of imbalance cannot be dealt with by the union organisations and employers without a general scramble for pay increases, the Riksbank will be confronted by the unpleasant task of constraining the economy in order to prevent excessively high wage increases having an impact on inflation. The low inflation policy may therefore be said to be confronted by a test: the labour market is improving with falling unemployment and increasing capacity use otherwise.