samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
23  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  23  Chart 26: Asset price responsiveness to trade news Per cent  2018 - Positive news 2019 - Positive news 2018 - Negative news 2019 - Negative news  0.2  2018 - Positive news 2019 - Positive news 2018 - Negative news 2019 - Negative news  Per cent, pp for VIX 1.2 1 0.8  0.1  0.6 0  0.4 0.2  -0.1  0 -0.2  -0.2  -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 US Dollar ERI  2018 - Positive news 2019 - Positive news 2018 - Negative news 2019 - Negative news  CNY bps  -0.6 -0.8 S&P 500  Shanghai Composite  VIX  8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8  10-year US Treasury yields  High-Yield US corporate credit spreads Sources: Bloomberg LP and Bank of England calculations. Trade tensions are also taking their toll on companies’ sentiment and activity. Global goods trade has slowed (Chart 27). But the weakening has been even more striking in business surveys of sentiment, manufacturing and export orders. This weakening has been broadly-based across the world’s major trading economies, with simultaneous falls in sentiment across the United States, Asia, Europe and China.

If one were to use SARON in such cases, interest payments would theoretically have to be made daily, which is impractical. The NWG has recommended using average SARON values (‘compounding approach’), and has proposed several possible options. Market participants are currently working on implementing this recommendation. Let me conclude this section by emphasising that SARON is establishing itself as the leading reference rate for financial products. It is the responsibility of market participants to systematically complete the remaining transition work and prepare themselves for the postLibor era. As they do so, they can draw on the recommendations of the NWG, whose activities the SNB supports. The faster SARON is integrated into financial products, the smoother the replacement of Libor will be. The creation of a liquid, SARON-based yield curve is fundamental as it will enable our money and capital markets to continue running efficiently. This is very important not only for our country’s financial system but also for the transmission of the SNB’s monetary policy. SNB joins network dedicated to ‘greening the financial system’  To conclude, I would like to say a few words about our decision to join the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). As climate change is a global phenomenon, institutional and technical knowledge must be analysed and exchanged globally. The SNB joined the NGFS, which now comprises 36 central banks and supervisors, in April 2019. The network provides a forum in which members can conduct in-depth analysis and seek answers to some key questions.
Solow, R (2015), ‘The Future Of Work: Why Wages Aren’t Keeping Up’, article in the Pacific Standard. Thomas, R and Dimsdale, N (2017), ‘A millennium of macroeconomic data’, Bank of England OBRA dataset, http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/datasets/default.aspx  27  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  27

Fernando Restoy: Europe in the aftermath of the crisis Closing address by Mr Fernando Restoy, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the seminar “Europe in the aftermath of the crisis”, organised by the Association of Economic Information Journalists (APIE), at the Menéndez Pelayo International University (UIMP), Santander, 20 June 2014. *  *  *  Introduction Thank you very much, Miguel Ángel, for your introduction. And thanks again for inviting me to close the course organised by APIE at the UIMP. As in previous years, it is a real pleasure to be among you. I will take the opportunity to offer some thoughts on the situation of the Spanish banking system and the challenges it has ahead, two years after the approval of the financial assistance programme for Spain, and five months after the conclusion of this programme once its objectives were met. In particular, after discussing the macroeconomic environment and reviewing the transformation of the banking sector over the past two years, I shall focus on the public cost the process has entailed and highlight the main challenges facing both the financial industry and the financial authorities. 1.
Although the international money markets have now calmed somewhat, we have not yet seen the end of the turmoil on the financial markets – neither for the financial institutions involved nor for the international economy. After four years of strong growth and low inflation, this means more difficult times ahead for the Swiss economy. Due to the turbulence on the financial markets, the economic outlook has become more uncertain while, at the same time, inflationary pressure has heightened over the past few months – not such a comfortable position for a central bank. A positive element remains the achievements of the past few years, which have laid the foundations for a higher long-term growth trend. These need to be further improved in order to retain Switzerland as a dynamic business location. BIS Review 21/2008  1

i) Long-term sovereign bond yields have fallen sharply for several countries – in Spain for example, the 10-year yield has shed around 200 basis points since July – and have remained at very low levels for the “core” countries (slightly above 2% for France for instance);  •  ii) We are seeing US money market funds coming back to invest in the euro area; iii) We are seeing more unsecured issues and issues of corporate bonds. These are all positive signs – among others – that point to a gradual return of confidence in the euro area. I think I can say that the fundamental causes of the euro area crisis have now been fully taken on board by all of the players, so that everyone has a clear and fair view of their own responsibilities. Three causes for the crisis can be identified: •  A lack of fiscal discipline;  •  A loss of competitiveness;  •  Incomplete European integration. I would like to show you that the euro area is now moving decisively in the right direction to address each of these causes. Governments are consolidating their public finances and competitiveness and European integration is moving forward. First, the efforts already made on the fiscal front by euro area countries are already bearing fruit: the primary position of the euro area should be close to balance by the end of 2012, which is a remarkable achievement compared to the other major economic areas.
Green technology is a fledgling industry in this country and the banks require the knowledge and expertise to conduct thorough evaluation of the projects. Training institutions such as IBFIM can play a role in developing talents beyond the needs of traditional business and create experts in the assessment and evaluation of green projects. This would assist the development of new skills for the credit officers and risk management personnel to effectively undertake competitive analysis of the prospects presented by green projects. Islamic banks could, in phases, consider to adopt the Equator Principles, a pledge given by 78 of its international conventional peers to enhance their capability to provide financing to ventures which are both economically viable and environmentally friendly. Conclusion The growth potential of green technology in Malaysia is boundless with the strong prospects to contribute significantly to the country’s transformation into a high value-added economy. There are large untapped opportunities in this sector and Islamic financial institutions can allocate its resources into this segment to carve a niche market for Islamic finance. On that note, I hope for this conference to become an impetus to spark greater interest from Islamic financial institutions to further explore financing for green ventures and to generate new innovative Islamic financial solutions for this viable and promising new growth area. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5

To prevent these problems from getting out of hand, our country’s development should be undertaken in a way that does not place importance on GDP growth at the expense of all else, but aims to strike a balance between GDP growth and the preservation and conservation of natural resources and the environment. Rapid development should not be undertaken unless the environment and natural resources are able to sustain and support such development. The public needs to have greater interest in resource management, particularly water management, in order to allow sustainable use, alongside the growing needs from agriculture and industry. We need to restore nature and the natural balance of the environment, which can thrive in parallel with the growing economy, increased tourism demands, as well as improved living standards for all Thais in general. Hence, in order for economic development to continue in the right direction, development should not be measured solely by GDP growth, but by other development indicators as well. There has been increasing discussion on the concept of Green GDP, although this has not yet been put into practice. [In Bhutan, instead of adopting traditional GDP measures, the Bhutanese have adopted “Gross National Happiness”, or GNH as their development philosophy. In recognition that human happiness is a composite of both the material and non-material needs, GNH is meant to address this. GNH is a more comprehensive measure that incorporates economic development, environmental preservation, cultural promotion, and good governance.]
Bilateral Meetings  Remarks on the Chilean Economy since September Monetary Policy Report Rosanna COSTA, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile 2022 IMF/WB Annual Meetings Thursday 13 to Saturday 15, October 2022  Recent Inflation Developments  Currently, inflation is a major concern for most economies and Chile is no exception. In Chile, although with a slight moderation in the last figure —September 2022—, total inflation reached 13.7% yoy, while core inflation —measured by the CPI excluding volatiles— continued to rise to 11.1% yoy. The sum of the August and September data — both figures known after the release of the last Monetary Policy Report (IPoM)— reveals somewhat higher inflation than expected with the surprise coming from food prices, both volatile and non-volatile. •  Inflationary factors  Behind the evolution of inflation there are some common elements to the rest of the world and some others more idiosyncratic. Among the former, there is the increase in external costs since the end of 2021, explained by the increase in the price of raw materials and food due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the disruption of supply chains. Among the internal factors, one of the main elements identified is the domestic spending imbalances accumulated during 2021 —as a result of fiscal aid and pension fund withdrawals, that reached almost 33% of GDP—, and which is especially evident in the still high level of private consumption. Added to this is the increase in wage costs associated with the tight of labor market.

This raises the expected inflation in the short term with respect to what we estimated in the IPoM. In this context, the BCCh Board raised the Monetary Policy rate (MPR) to 11.25%, and estimates it has reached its maximum level of the cycle that began in July 2021, and that it will remain there for as long as necessary to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target over the two-year policy horizon. The macroeconomic scenario presents high risks whose short- and medium-term implications must be evaluated carefully. The Board will monitor closely the unfolding of these events, and hereby reaffirms its commitment to conduct monetary policy with flexibility, in order for projected inflation to stand at 3% annually in the policy horizon. The corridor for the MPR delivered in the September IPoM considered scenarios that might require a somewhat different monetary policy action. The ceiling of the corridor corresponds to a scenario where foreign financial conditions tighten more following a need of greater monetary adjustment in the U.S. Events after the September IPoM were published are consistent with that scenario although the magnitude of the changes have been smaller. And with last Wednesday's move, the MPR remains in the corridor. It should be noted that, the real monetary policy rate is around 4.5 pp above neutral, if we consider its current level minus expected one-year inflation according to market expectations. This is one of the most contractionary rates in the region 1.
This does not mean, however, that the situation will remain stable in the future. Were the general level of interest rates to rise, these funds could quickly flow elsewhere. Banks should therefore include these assumptions in their assessment and management of their interest rate risk. Furthermore, domestically focused banks should exercise greater caution in residential mortgage lending. When determining and applying their lending criteria with respect to loanto-value ratios, banks should bear in mind that the risks in the real estate market have increased. Moreover, when assessing the affordability for their borrowers, banks should be aware that mortgage rates can rise rapidly. The application of conservative lending criteria is important, on the one hand, as a precautionary measure for the banks themselves, in view of the prevailing risks in the market. On the other, a more prudent lending policy would help to counter a further build-up of imbalances. From a financial stability perspective, in the event of a further build-up of risks in the Swiss mortgage and real estate markets, it might prove necessary to take further regulatory measures. The SNB, for its part, will regularly assess whether an adjustment of the countercyclical capital buffer is necessary. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

27 For example, in the First Industrial Revolution, with no welfare state and only the (dire) prospect of a Victorian workhouse, employees set up Friendly Societies and Co-operatives to support colleagues falling on hard times. With trade unions outlawed until the end of the period, it fell to the will of charitable industrialists, the likes of Robert Owen and Sir Titus Salt to improve conditions inside mills. By the end of the Second Industrial Revolution, spurred by a more organised labour force, the Government provided welfare for its population through workplace injury compensations, basic pensions and unemployment provisions. The interwar years ushered in universal healthcare, unemployment insurance and pensions. By the dawn of the 3rd Revolution, individual enterprise and privatisation were ascendant. Reform of social services – to help create a society of equal opportunity – followed, supported by increased public spending for maternity and child benefits, early years education, and provisions for pensioners. 28 The number of Friendly Societies rose to 27,000 by the end of the 1800s and Trade Union membership quadrupled from 2 million in 1889 to 8.3 million by 1920. Spurred by industrial unrest, the state introduced the precursor to the minimum wage in the first decade of the 1900s. Unionism has been in decline since the 1970s, with membership dipping below six million in 2012 for the first time since the 1940s.
At the time, the real exchange rate was more appreciated than today, and it was only a few weeks before the financial crisis took a turn for the worse after the collapse of Bear Stearns, which warranted strengthening our international reserves position in the face of a very volatile global economic and financial scenario. The exchange rate depreciated in the first weeks after we announced the intervention, but the subsequent depreciation in the following months coincided with a widespread weakening of emerging currencies, increased risk aversion in global financial markets, a strengthened dollar and a fall in Treasury bonds’ interest rates. But it is also helpful to learn from other episodes, and an interesting one happened in 1997, when the real exchange rate hit its lowest since the crisis of the peg in 1982. That intervention amounted to around 4% of GDP, there were capital controls, net capital inflows were at 8.1% of GDP, the copper price was at $ per pound in dollars of today, and the net international position was more to the debt side, at 50% of GDP. Certainly, the floating regime, a monetary policy more aligned with international interest rates, and reduced capital inflows have been key in limiting the amplitude of exchange rate fluctuations. I want to highlight that net capital inflows to Chile are now less than the peaks we saw in the 1990s. Currently, capital inflows to the emerging world – particularly Latin America – have resumed pre-crisis levels but are still below those of the 1990s (figure 9).

Such a policy has sought to save the transitory income from copper, cushioning the impact of terms of trade cycles on fiscal expenditure, demand, and the real exchange rate. When confronted with the worst international recession since the Great Depression, this fiscal prudence allowed putting in place countercyclical measures that had no precedent in our economic history. In the present circumstances where the economy has already gained momentum, it is adequate to withdraw part of the fiscal stimulus. The plan of gradual reduction of the structural fiscal deficit announced by the government will contribute to moderate demand and remove some pressure from the real exchange rate, although its effects will become apparent gradually over time. Beyond the business cycle, it is also worth mentioning that the persistence of high copper prices in the world markets has been translating into better expectations for its long-term price. In the first five years of the fiscal rule of structural balance, the average reference price for copper was, in real terms as of today, $ per pound; now it is more than twice, at $ per pound. The higher earnings from copper have allowed financing an important increase in public spending as a percentage of GDP and greater transfers over the past few years. This situation has consequences also on the real exchange rate.
2  Examples of these stronger and pro-business rules are: (i) The procedures for investors to register their investment in order to benefit from protection under the agreement, are outlined clearly so that the procedures are transparent to investors; (ii) Policy-makers can more easily consider the views and feedback of the business community, as the ACIA has a consultations mechanism giving ASEAN countries an official platform to stay engaged on ACIA matters and its implementation; and (iii) The ACIA has a robust Investor-to-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism which will give investors additional recourse to seek redress or compensation if they have been treated unfairly by a government. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The appointment of a Renminbi clearing bank in Singapore brings new functionality to the Singapore financial system. The build-up of Renminbi liquidity in Singapore will encourage financial institutions in Singapore to develop and offer a wider range of Renminbi products and services. This will help meet the financing, investment, and risk management needs of the market. It will also strengthen the role of Singapore as a leading global financial centre that serves Asia and beyond. Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Besides the RCEP, Singapore is also actively engaged in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or the TPP. The TPP negotiations currently involve 11 countries: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam and the United States. It aims to bring comprehensive duty-free market access as well as reduced restrictions on services, investment and government procurement.

We will participate actively to propagate free and open trading alliances as Asia grows and becomes more economically integrated. In this way, we help to unlock the value, spin off new opportunities and create good jobs for Singaporeans. ASEAN and AEC 2015 One key market for Singapore is ASEAN. ASEAN is a growing region and has a combined population of 600 million people. ASEAN also has a GDP that is the third largest in Asia, after China and Japan. In recent years, ASEAN has embarked on an enterprise to integrate our economies into a regional bloc. ASEAN today, through initiatives like the ASEAN Free Trade Area, has resulted in virtually no tariffs for flows of goods between our countries. Going forward, ASEAN is making good progress towards becoming the single market and product base envisioned in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The realisation of the AEC by 2015 will result in an even more tightly integrated region, and this has opened up more opportunities for corporates as well as investors. A key principle underpinning the AEC 2015 is the free flow of goods, services and investment within the region by 2015. Let me update you on the progress so far. •  1  On trade in goods, virtually all goods in ASEAN already move throughout the region tariff-free1. We are now working on reducing non-tariff barriers. ASEAN-6 countries have eliminated tariffs on 99.65% of tariff lines effective 1 Jan 2010.
For example, the regional house price indices used to calculate changes in housing wealth may be capturing wider regional variation in labour demand. 13  Eggertson and Krugman (2012) illustrate how increased labour supply is one margin through which households that need to de-lever can do so. Eggertson, G and Krugman, P, (2012), “Debt, deleveraging and the liquidity trap: a Fisher-Minsky-Koo approach”, Quarterly Journal of Economics. 14  See Bunn, P and Rostom, M (2013), “The financial position of British households: evidence from the 2013 NMG Consulting survey”, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Q4. 15  Based on the relationship between average earnings adjusted for inflation expectations and unemployment between 1993 and 2012. See Broadbent (2014), “Unemployment and the conduct of monetary policy in the UK”, Speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 38th Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. 16  See eg Broadbent (2012), “Productivity and the allocation of resources”, Speech at Durham Business School, September. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  This substitution of labour for capital across the economy has continued to lower productivity per hour worked. That weak productivity growth is not the result of laziness on anyone’s part. It is a natural consequence of so many people wanting to work and companies employing them in place of capital.

These movements can be explained by several factors: risk aversion, preference for liquidity, tightening of remuneration spreads, tax-regime uncertainty, “re-intermediation” of savings ahead of the new prudential rules (Basel III and Solvency II). I would like to emphasise just how complementary the approaches that will be presented to you in this first session can be. While the topic of savings touches upon a wide range of well-known macroeconomic issues, it is the individual decisions of households and their financial services providers that ultimately generate the fundamentals. II. Following on from this, what challenges do movements of household savings pose for the marketing of financial products? The rules framing the marketing of financial products play a fundamental role in modern economies because they contribute so much to consumer confidence, particularly when the consumer wishes to make long-term investments. In a highly complex economic environment, the advisory duty is an essential link in the chain between household satisfaction and the economic efficacy of their investments. The numerous questions concerning life-insurance received by the legal specialists on the ACP information platform bear witness to this reality. The marketing of financial products also raises questions of consumer protection. The financial services provider must take into account the client’s profile including his/her age, assets, investment horizon and degree of risk aversion, and adapt the investment opportunities offered accordingly so that the recommended investments are tailored to the client’s wishes and needs. Guaranteeing that savers receive the right information is therefore indispensable.