samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
For monetary policy, it means what we call IT+, where IT is coupled with a managed float, supported by macroprudential policies and possibly on-and-off capital flow management tools to deal with excessive inflows related to carry trade that greatly complicate the conduct of monetary policy, as indeed happened in Iceland last summer and autumn. For financial stability, it means putting the finishing touches on the implementation of prudential rules on FX liquidity and financing of banks that would greatly curtail their ability to build oversized FX balance sheets with rollover risk. This would be part of our current policy to have predominantly domestic-oriented banks as long as global and regional frameworks make cross-border banking in small countries with their own currency unsafe. Let me finally and very briefly mention some of the lessons learned. We can expand on those and other topics during the Q&A session if you wish. It is too risky to headquarter big international banks in small countries unless a credible multilateral financial safety net is available. The framework for cross-border banking in the EU was and is deeply flawed. A full banking union will take care of that, but not for EEA countries outside the Eurozone, due to potential FX risks on bank’s balance sheets. A flexible exchange rate can be both part of the problem and the solution. Capital controls in some form are here to stay as part of the toolbox, but comprehensive capital controls should not be imposed lightly.

2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  To conclude, Islamic financial institutions have developed into matured institutions that are now offering a wide range of financial solutions to meet the varied needs of customers. Therefore, halal businesses should seize these opportunities to better position themselves and embrace sustainability, as well as digitalisation that aim to provide stronger platforms to rebound as the economy recovers. In closing, I would like to share with you an inspiring verse from the Quran, that serves as the foundation to the key points I have intended to raise earlier. In Surah Al-Baqarah verse 195, Allah s.w.t mentioned, “And do good, indeed Allah loves the doers of good”. So, let us embrace this message together and put more effort in propagating good, particularly in the way we conduct businesses, by not just being halal, but also beneficial to the environment and society at large in line with the commandment of Allah s.w.t. Let us begin this today, here at the World Halal Business Conference 2021. Thank you and I wish everyone a pleasant and productive conference. 1 Source: Dinar Standard, The State of Global Islamic Economy 2020/2021 2 Halal food, Islamic finance, Muslim-friendly travel, pharma and cosmetics 3 Source: HDC HIMP 2030 4 BNM internal survey 5 Source: HDC Vibes issue 06/2021  3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
I thought that it is worth talking about the role of captives in the shifting sands of business in the 21st century. I would like to share some thoughts on what the future holds for captives as we contemplate the changes taking place around us. Responding to risk in the 21st century – the role of captives Major risk events often strike without prejudice. Typhoons do not discriminate in the havoc that they wreak. Terrorist attacks affect innocent bystanders who happen to be at the wrong place at the wrong time. Organizations across the globe, no matter what their purpose, have been targeted by cyber-attacks. From the National Health Service in the UK, to schools in China, to chocolate factories in Australia, organizations large and small, for-profit or non-profit, have borne the brunt of ransomware attacks. Thanks to globalization and advancements in technology, the impact on businesses is also more far-reaching and larger in scale than ever before. The malware WannaCry hit 200,000 computers in 150 countries. Attacks on multinational transport companies based in Europe stranded cargo at ports in India. The losses from these events are large. Cyber theft cost the global economy more than $ billion in 2016. Lloyd’s of London estimates that a global-scale cyber-attack could rack up losses of $ billion, similar to a catastrophic natural disaster such as U.S. Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Unsurprisingly, risk awareness is now growing across the entire spectrum of businesses.

11.07.2022  Welcoming remarks to the conference on econometric methods and empirical analysis of microdata in honour of Manuel Arellano Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Good morning, and welcome to this conference on econometric methods and empirical analysis of microdata in honour of Manuel Arellano, one of our country’s leading economists and a key figure in the field of econometrics at international level. Let me take this opportunity to, once again, congratulate professor Arellano on all his important achievements. We are indeed very honoured at the Banco the España to have Manuel with us at the CEMFI. In his recent acceptance speech at the award ceremony of the King of Spain’s Prize for Economics, Manuel Arellano argued that a nation without good administrative data is like a hospital system without access to advanced magnetic resonance equipment. I couldn’t agree more with this comparison. To have an accurate diagnosis of the problems of an economy it is crucial to be able to observe economic reality in sufficient detail. And, the analysis of an economy in high resolution is possible thanks to the empirical analysis of data, of microdata in particular, using, of course, the appropriate econometric methods. Indeed, in recent decades, the analysis of microdata has revolutionised research in the social sciences1 and policy evaluation. The availability of granular data, together with the development of innovative econometric methods, has radically changed the way researchers approach and understand social issues.
Since inflation is at the same time lower, the differences in the real interest rate are less, however. An important reason for inflation being so low is the broad agreement on the price stability target that now seems to exist. An expression of this is that inflationary expectations remain at a stable level despite expectations on a continued very strong upswing. The Riksbank’s most important duty in future is to ensure that expectations remain at around 2% inflation. The very low inflation which is now registered has, however, surprised many people, including us at the Riksbank. An important explanation as to why GDP growth has now been able to exceed the growth in output that is possible in the long term for many years without threatening the inflation target is, of course, that the upswing started from a level of output that was greatly depressed after the years of crisis, where a lot of resources had been made redundant. When unemployment was at its peak, there were many who feared that it would persist permanently at a considerably higher level than we were previously used to. There was also opposition to the inflation target policy just for that reason. Examples were pointed to in Europe where unemployment had been over the Swedish for a long time, but where there had been greater success in combating inflation. The labour market is performing better than expected It is difficult to determine the rate at which GDP can increase in the long term.

When the Executive Board met for the first time, it clarified the approach to be adopted in monetary policy. It was already the case that inflation measured by CPI was to amount to 2% with a tolerance interval of plus/minus 1 percentage point. The Riksbank had also previously announced that the target horizon would be 1-2 years in normal cases. We clarified that we can decide to disregard certain factors affecting prices which are not related to resource use in the economy and which only have a temporary effect on inflation. However, the prerequisite is that the effect on prices is temporary and should thus not affect inflation expectations. Subsequently, we have also said that there may be reasons for taking into account developments before and after the target horizon. When  3  BIS Review 98/2000  we depart from the main rule, we have undertaken to say that we are doing so and give reasons for why we are departing from the rule. The monetary policy decisions are based on forward-looking assessments of inflation measured as CPI. This assessment is based on the interest rate being unchanged during the forecast period. An important factor for determining inflation is the degree of resource use in the economy, the output gap. The thinking underlying this is that inflation will be stabilised if the increase in output is in accord with the long-term growth track.
In stress test parlance: this year’s test is “topdown”, whereas next year’s is “bottom-up”. As banks become better prepared to face the risks posed by climate change, they need to be led by people who are also better prepared to deal with these topics. When assessing the suitability of prospective members of the management body of banks, knowledge and experience of climate-related and environmental risks will be among the areas of general banking experience against which suitability will be assessed. Finally, we will seek to include an understanding of climate-related and environmental risks as a specific area of expertise within the collective suitability of a bank board. An environmental risk that is intimately connected to climate change, but also constitutes a risk in itself, is the loss of biodiversity. In our Guide on climate-related and environmental risks we single out biodiversity loss as one of the drivers of both physical and transition risk. It is becoming ever clearer that beyond climate-related risks, biodiversity loss could also be a source of material financial risks.9 More research needs to be done.10 At the ECB, we will follow these developments closely – and we encourage banks to do the same. Integrating international networks and European initiatives Much like the EBRD, the ECB is also part of global initiatives which promote international cooperation on joint solutions for climate change. Most prominently, the ECB is a member of the NGFS.

All these developments contributed to the growth of the Kingdom’s economy and enhanced the stability of its financial sector. Domestic banks’ capital adequacy ratio (Basel Standard) stood at 17.8 percent at the end of the second quarter of 2014, exceeding the prescribed rate of 8 percent. In addition, stress tests conducted periodically by SAMA on commercial banks showed good results. Banking services witnessed further expansion throughout the Kingdom. Commercial banks’ branches increased by 53.8 percent to 1,862 at the end of July 2014, compared to 1,211 at the end of July 2004. In recognition of the importance of using latest technological developments in the banking field, SAMA worked with domestic banks on the introduction of the latest secure banking technology. In this regard, the value of transactions carried out through SARIE system picked up to SAR 54.6 trillion in 2013 from SAR 8.1 trillion in 2004. Moreover, the total number of transactions executed through ATMs went up to 1,335.5 million in 2013 from 412.1 million in 2004. During the same period, the total number of transactions carried out through POS terminals increased to 294.1 million with a total value of SAR 144.3 billion from 52.1 million with a total value of SAR 23.9 billion. The number of bills paid through SADAD system increased to 160.8 million with a value of SAR 176.6 billion in 2013 from 43.5 million with a value of SAR 22.0 billion in 2007.
As the President of the Bank Council pointed out just now, our annual disposable profit averages about CHF 1 billion. As this year's negative result shows, it is subject to sharp fluctuations. The fact that we are now distributing more than this amount is because we are gradually releasing the provision for future profit distributions. This provision amounted to CHF 13.4 billion in 2001, but had dropped to CHF 6.9 billion by the close of our 2004 accounts. This development does not come as a complete surprise. A progressive fall in the provision had been predicted, though the speed of the decline – a result of the current low interest rates – had not been expected. Our profit distribution may already have to be reduced in 2007, when the agreement we concluded in 2002 with the Federal Department of Finance on the distribution of profits is revised. Our profit distributions will gradually decrease towards the CHF 1 billion level. Ladies and gentlemen, dear shareholders, dear guests, 2004 was a relatively favourable year for the Swiss economy. A few clouds have recently appeared on the horizon. The recovery has unfortunately weakened, so a fall in unemployment is not imminent. We will continue to pursue a monetary policy aimed at maintaining the level of economic activity, though we will keep a careful watch on the general level of prices.

John C Williams: The “new normal” for growth Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Community Bankers Conference, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 4 April 2019. * * * As prepared for delivery Note: These remarks are based on those delivered at the Economic Club of New York on March 6, 2019. Introduction Good morning, everyone. It’s a pleasure to be hosting this conference, and I’d like to start by welcoming you all to the New York Fed. I know there’s an opportunity to tour the gold vault later, and I definitely recommend it. There’s something very exciting about our more traditional approach to storing money… even though the gold bars pose certain logistical and practical challenges. If you drop one on your foot you’ll definitely know about it. Community Banks I’m going to start today by talking a bit about community banks. Aside from a short period running a pizza restaurant, I’ve spent all of my career in the Federal Reserve System. And I’ve had the opportunity to travel extensively throughout the United States. When you visit communities in more rural or remote parts of the country, away from big urban centers like New York and San Francisco, you really see the value of community banks. In many places you’re the only game in town when it comes to banking services and credit.
Inflation developments  Distinguished Members of the Press, The second quarter of 2009 was marked by persistence of the adverse effects of the global financial crisis that erupted in developed markets and then spread across the world during the last quarter of 2008. In this period, economic activity maintained its weak course despite the counter-cyclical effects of fiscal and monetary policies implemented extensively in a coordinated manner at global level so as to remedy the excessive shortage of liquidity in markets. While recent data releases on the global financial system and economic activity indicate that the worst may be over, improvements in leading indicators have been slow, problems in credit markets linger, and employment remains in a precarious state, suggesting that the recovery will be anemic and protracted. The sharp contraction in aggregate demand and the fall in commodity prices since the last quarter of 2008 has led to plummeting inflation rates all over the world. In Turkey, a similar trend has also been observed in the said period and CPI inflation has edged down to 5.73 percent over the last three quarters. Thus, as of June, inflation remained at 6.8 percent, well below the lower limit of the uncertainty band set around the target path (Figure1).

Meksika Polonya G.Afrika G.Kore Y.Zelanda Şili Macaristan Türkiye  1207  1.9  0.04  0907  2  900  0607  TL/Kur Sepeti (0,5 Euro+0,5 ABD Doları)  0308  2.1  Source: Bloomberg and CBRT. On the other hand, the currencies of emerging markets that implemented policy rate cuts of larger amounts also performed better in the second quarter of the year, as was the case during the entire process of the crisis. This owes its existence to the fact that changes in the risk premia of countries during the crisis are determinants of not only exchange rate performance but also monetary policy decisions of the said countries. As of the second quarter of the year, policy rate reductions have become partially influential on domestic credit markets. The marked decline in interest rates on loans extended to firms is particularly striking (Figure 18). This has reduced the cost of credits of firms with faltering cash flow, which they utilize to restructure their debts. Thereby, the deterioration in the  BIS Review 103/2009  11  financial structures of such firms was limited and a permanent damage to the production capacity of the economy was averted. Against the rapid decline in interest rates on loans extended to the corporate sector, fixed and long term loan interest rates still remain high. As a matter of fact, term premia in consumer loans are at relatively high levels and particularly the fall in interest rates on long term loans remains relatively limited (Figure 19).
The common theme in all of this research is the importance of the public’s “narratives” in shaping their behaviour. That is true individually but especially collectively – hence “popular narratives” – with shifts in collective expectations helping account for the width and depth of macro-economic fluctuations. As well as contributing to this research, the Bank has begun using these “narrative” approaches itself to help understand behaviour. Let me give you a topical example. The Bank’s Agents around the UK have a wide network of company contacts who they visit regularly to discuss the economy. These visits are then written up. These write-ups enable a semantic search to be carried out to identify the key themes or narratives emerging in companies’ conversations. You will be unsurprised to hear that a key theme among companies over recent quarters has been uncertainty surrounding Brexit. 19  Shiller (2017). Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), Bloom (2009) and Bloom, Bond and Van Reenen (2007). 21 For example, Tuckett (2011) and Tuckett and Nikolic (2017). 22 Bailey et al (2016). 23 Akerlof and Shiller (2009) and Shiller (2017). 20  9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  9  Figure 1 plots a word cloud extracted from those company write-ups. The size of each word connotes the frequency of its use in relation to mentions of “uncertainty”. For a word that did not exist as recently as five years ago, it is striking how Brexit is now dominating companies’ conversations.

Layer 1 is the single sentence/single graphic version, pitched at a level which is accessible to around two-thirds of the population. Layer 2 is the single page/simple graphics version, accessible to over 40%. Measured in web hits and downloads, these layered communications appear to have broadened notably the reach of the MPC’s monetary policy messages, in particular among a non-expert audience. A couple of recent research studies have used experimental methods to look more closely at the impact of the Bank’s simpler communications on public understanding and trust. 48  For example, in a randomised  control trial of over 2,000 members of the general public, a recent study found that use of the visual summaries increased the public’s understanding of the Inflation Report’s messages by around 25%. This is a very substantial gain in public understanding for a fairly modest change in format. This study went, however, one step further and asked whether further improvements in understanding were possible. The format they considered personalised the language, making it more relatable to people’s everyday lives – for example, by greater use of the first and second person (us/you), greater use of commonly-used words (“rising prices” rather than “inflation”) and with more engaging, interactive graphics. Doing so increased the gain in public understanding by 40%. There are limits to what simplification, personalisation and visualisation can achieve. The same study assessed how these changes in format affected the general public’s trust in the Bank of England’s policies. These gains were modest. Perhaps that should come as no surprise.
At the initial stage of the financial crisis the importance of the macro prudential policies in the overall policy mix was highlighted and therefore, a lot of attention has been put on the monetary and macro prudential policy nexus, conveying the main message that the price stability and financial stability are interconnected. With the appearance of the sovereign debt and banking crisis in the last couple of years in the euro area, it was quite obvious that the poor public finances management could also impose threats to the financial system. The financial instability and weak public finances can potentially have adverse effects on the financial markets, imposing distortions in the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and resulting in serious macroeconomic imbalances. The required policy nexus is becoming a necessary precondition for designing and implementing a sound macroeconomic management. Under situation that was more specific than usual, when the role of traditional instruments was limited, the monetary policy turned to unconventional policy measures. Although the monetary policy in the region has not been constrained by zero lower bound on interest rates, the central banks also turned towards unconventional monetary policy tools, having in mind the potential risks of repeated deterioration of the external imbalances and inflationary pressures or aiming at supporting other objectives (including credit growth).

Dimitar Bogov: Policy nexus and the global environment – a new consensus emerging from the crisis? Address by Mr Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the 2nd Research Conference “Policy nexus and the global environment – a new consensus emerging from the crisis?”, Skopje, 26 April 2013. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, Dear guests, Let me wish you welcome on our second Research Conference that we usually organize on the day of the monetary independence anniversary of the Republic of Macedonia. The subject of this year’s conference we believe is highly topical, in line with the ongoing lively discussions among central bankers, research and academic institutions worldwide. The global economy in the last couple of years undergone remarkable changes, both from institutional and policy design setup. We witnessed financial market turbulences, banks failures and sovereign debt crisis with strong contagion around the world economy that was almost unique by its size, and the global economy is still struggling to recover. After five years of global crisis we could say that we experienced a lot, and hopefully, we learnt a lot. One of the main lessons of the crisis was exactly related to the topic of the conference – the need of policy nexus as a kind of a consensus emerging from the crisis. What is the policy nexus about?