samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
oil prices in the risk scenario stand at $ a barrel in 2018–2019, and fall to this level by the end of 2017. We have updated some internal parameters. They will be published today in the Monetary Policy Report. We have kept those predictions in the scenario with growing oil prices, at $ there have also been some minor revisions but general trends remain unchanged. In essence our estimates have not changed since last December. RBC Media Holding’s QUESTION: Two questions, please. First. You have cited many factors which favour the rate cut, but the significance of constraining factors remains relatively unclear. Do they include uncertain fiscal policy and reshuffles in the Ministry of Economic Development? Could you please repeat what prevents you from reducing the rate more rapidly and why the rate of reduction is 0.25 pp – is this a new norm? And question two. Economists say that the key rate is losing significance in terms of the economy, i.e. businesses are watching it less closely. Do you see any considerable difference between 9.75% and 9.5%? How important is the key rate at this time? ELVIRA NABIULLINA: Indeed, we took into account many positive factors as we made the decision to cut the rate, however inflation risks still persist. We consider them more likely to be medium-term than shortterm risks. Monetary policy takes effect with a lag of six to nine months, therefore when in making a decision we have to bear in mind its effects not only this year, but also in 2018.

The current effort of FSB to survey unintended consequences of reforms on emerging market is welcomed. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Before ending this note on Basel III, let me touch on Thailand’s own take on these developments. For Thailand, we aim to adopt the Basel III framework in accordance with Basel Committee timeline. After industry consultation, we believe that Thai banks will be well placed to implement the Basel III framework as their capital positions are well above the minimum requirements of 8.5%. The Basel III framework will help strengthen the bank’s capital and risk management. One of the major improvements of Basel III from Basel II is consideration on cyclicality, with requirement for conservation and countercyclical buffer. However, we believe that prudential measures, such as conservative provisioning designed to be countercyclical, should also be given due credit for achieving the same aim when implementing Basel III buffers. This would help avoid the double requirement on capital maintenance. Of course, we strongly support a better treatment of trade financing, to ensure that Basel III is supportive of stable economic growth. On the last note, let me turn to a key trend in Asia, “regional economic and financial integration”. Asia faces a challenge of steering a balance between liberalization and strengthening regulation. ASEAN Economic Integration under AEC, which sets the landmark date of 2015, has progressed substantially on the free flow of goods and services, as well as direct investment. Financial sector integration is also set to speed up.
Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: Efforts for further development of the financial education and improving the financial literacy among the population Address by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, at the Meeting with the Teaching Staff on the Occasion of the European Money Quiz, Skopje, 22 February 2019. * * * Dear Deputy Minister of Education and Science, dear President of the Macedonian Banking Association, dear teachers, dear guests, First of all, please allow me to greet and welcome all of you here in the National Bank. This is the first such meeting, which I hope will become a regular practice in the future, within our efforts for further development of the financial education and improving the financial literacy among the population in our country. The global financial crisis that arouse from the deficient regulation of the financial system, as well as from the poor financial knowledge of the population, clearly emphasized the necessity for additional efforts in the financial education segment. Therefore, in the global context of the postcrisis period, the policy-makers, including central banks, undertake numerous activities, making financial education an integral part of central banking operations. Being aware of the importance of financial literacy, both for each individual and for the society as a whole, the National Bank has been undertaking activities in the field of financial education for the younger population for many years, and many students from primary and secondary schools, of course, together with their teachers, have already visited our bank.

The fan chart is constructed so that outturns of inflation are also expected to lie within each pair of the lighter red areas on 30 occasions. In any particular quarter of the forecast period, inflation is therefore expected to lie somewhere within the fan on 90 out of 100 occasions. And on the remaining 10 out of 100 occasions inflation can fall anywhere outside the red area of the fan chart. Over the forecast period, this has been depicted by the light grey background. See the box on pages 48–49 of the May 2002 Inflation Report for a fuller description of the fan chart and what it represents. BIS central bankers’ speeches  21  Chart 11: The uncertainty parameter in the one year ahead inflation and GDP fan charts Inflation  Standard deviation  GDP  2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2  1998Q1  2001Q1  2004Q1  2007Q1  2010Q1  0.0  2013Q1  Source: Bank calculations. Notes: The chart shows the standard deviation implicit in the one year ahead probability distribution published in the MPC Inflation Reports since 1998. See the box on pages 48–49 of the May 2002 Inflation Report for a fuller description of the fan chart.
How should we structure the decision-making process in order to take account of the nexus between monetary policy and financial stability? It seems clear that the central bank should have some role in setting macro-prudential policy but that precise role may differ depending on the regulatory structure preferred by different countries. For example, responsibility for macro-prudential policy could be given to a committee in which a representative from the central bank would sit (like in the United States) or it could be given to the central bank (like in the UK). And central banks can adopt different internal governance approaches: some have a separate board for monetary policy; others also have a separate board for financial stability. Most central banks have the same board for both, but may have separate Deputy Governors responsible for each of the two strands. What matters, as I see it, is that “the buck stops somewhere”. There must be a decision at some high managerial level which balances the interests of monetary policy and financial stability as well as other central bank responsibilities. The organisation and processes of the central bank must also be structured so that there are analytical tools and resources available to help policy makers take a balanced view in their decisions concerning both monetary and financial stability policy objectives. For instance, there should be interdepartmental working groups. It is also important to remember that systemic risks can quickly spread between countries and reducing the build-up or impact of such risks will require coordinated international actions.

Christian Noyer: Fostering economic growth in Europe Introduction by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, for the Round Table 3: Bank of France Financial Stability Review “Financing the Economy: New Avenues for Growth”, at the Paris Europlace International Financial Forum, Paris, 20 April 2015. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, The purpose of this third round table is to launch the latest issue of the Banque de France Financial Stability Review entitled “Financing the economy: new avenues for growth” and which basically discusses the need for more market–based financing. I am thrilled to exchange views over this particularly topical issue today in a country that shifted towards market-financing a long time ago and which has a lot to tell us. In the United States, 80% of debt financing takes place in capital markets whereas this proportion is only 20% in the Eurozone. This new edition of our FSR, just like previous ones, brings together contributions from prominent academics, practitioners and policy-makers from all over the world. I warmly thank all the contributors. I cannot mention all of them but Sheila Bair and Barbara Novick among others are with us today. These contributions are very diverse, or even divergent, in their analysis and proposals. This is precisely how we want it to be. It is clear that we don’t necessarily share the views expressed in the articles but we believe in exchanging ideas.
(X)  Bank behaviour  It can be expected that the following trends, observed in the previous part of the current year, will continue into 2010: (1)  stagnation in high foreign sources of financing (standing at EUR 10 billion, of which about EUR 2 billion represents short-term inflows from parent banks in late 2008, which remained in the country throughout the year) and a very slight increase in domestic deposits (by 3.2%, suggesting that there is no potential for any significant strengthening of banks’ credit activity;  (2)  gradual extension of the maturity structure of both foreign sources (62%– 68%) and domestic ones (73%–77.4%), which is good in terms of safety, and facilitates longer maturity placements, but these sources are more expensive;  (3)  an increase in the foreign-currency portion of reserve requirements (71%– 76%), which also magnifies the currency risk, both on the assets and liabilities sides;  (4)  banks trying to reduce credit risk, which also leads to changes in the credit structure: an increase in the share of credit to government (from 8.7% to 13.1%) at the expense of consumer credit (declining from 27.5% to 25.0%);  (5)  an increase in bad placements (to 6%), but still a relatively strong resistance to shocks (provided that the currency shock is prevented);  Conclusion: Banks’ policies are expected to be very cautious in 2010, without any significant changes, with regard to both the growth and purpose of placements.

The policy strategies pursued need not be identical across countries and regions and the required size of the economic stimulus and the nature of the other measures taken need not – and should not – be the same, as structural and conjunctural conditions differ. Nevertheless, a similar orientation and consistency is warranted. 1  See International Monetary Fund, Global Financial Stability Report Market Update, 28 January 2009, p.2. 2  Based on data available up for January 2009. BIS Review 38/2009  1  Since the intensification of the financial crisis in September 2008, central banks and governments globally have acted in a decisive and concerted manner to contain the adverse effect of the financial crisis on the real economy and promote its recovery. In the euro area, the actions taken by the ECB and the Eurosystem are unprecedented in size and scope. Government support for financial institutions in the form of recapitalisations, guarantees on bank debt and, more recently, asset relief schemes, have been significant and the pertinent measures are progressively being implemented. And the fiscal stimulus packages of euro area governments are substantial, amounting to a total of about 2% of euro area GDP over this year and the next. The immediate priority of macroeconomic policies and bank support schemes is to promote the economy’s recovery and preserve price and financial stability.
We can certainly tackle the smallness, in terms of building bigger markets and effective shock absorbers, but I would be really loath to see openness tackled, for this would imply restrictions and controls that undermine the efficiency of international financial intermediation and hamper the potential for economic growth and development. Elsewhere, I have addressed a few times the question of how we can build bigger markets through regional cooperative efforts. The idea of an Asian Monetary Union is far-fetched. I would be the first to admit that, even though I also claim to be the first to draw attention to the idea publicly. So I will not go into that now, or the subject of regional monetary cooperation, except to say that we shall continue, for the time being, to urge the building of a more robust financial infrastructure for the region, and the improvement and harmonisation of regulatory and supervisory standards. These need not be pursued or be seen as preludes to further steps in a particular direction in the context of any wider regional initiative, but purely as things desirable in their own right, managing risks and reducing the probability of systemic problems occurring. We have a number of regional initiatives in this area, and have made some, but slow, progress. There are the liquidity assistance arrangements in the form of the bilateral repurchase agreements we initiated and put in place in 1995.

But global finance, however measured, has grown much, much faster. Stock market capitalisation and turnover surged by 153% and 282% respectively. Foreign exchange turnover more than doubled during this period, and has now grown to roughly 70 times of merchandise trade. You have seen the consequences of this disproportionate growth of international finance in many parts of the world, in Latin America, in Asia, in Russia, in Central Europe, and in South Africa, where the associated volatility of capital flows posed serious problems. Even in the US, where the largest markets in the world operate in what must be the most favourable economic environment seen for many decades, the destabilising potential of international finance was brought home by LTCM. Let me hasten to point out here that the rapid development of international finance is not necessarily a bad thing. Indeed, the phenomenon has been one important factor contributing to increasing global prosperity. Much of the Asian miracle as we know it, during the long period of prosperity before the financial turmoil broke out in July 1997, was brought about by financial liberalisation. The crucially important process of financial intermediation, in which savings are channelled into productive investment, has been made a lot more efficient. Money is no longer stored under mattresses, but is, through placements with banks, and investments in debt and equity and their ever-proliferating derivatives, put to productive use farming land, building homes, manufacturing goods and providing services.
The emphasis is on self-regulation, where stronger corporate governance, integrity and transparency are critical for banking institutions to achieve investor confidence and public trust. Moving forward, as market discipline improves and both banking institutions and insurance companies are better positioned to undergo self-regulation, further deregulation can be expected. A differentiated regulatory approach will increasingly be adopted, where banking institutions and insurance companies that exhibit strong corporate governance and risk management practices will be given greater regulatory flexibility. Whilst it is recognised that the regulatory framework should foster efficiency and competition, this has to be balanced with the objective of attaining soundness and preserving the stability of the financial system through the promotion of sound risk management practices. Commensurate with the diversity and complexity of products and services, the financial landscape of the future will require the continuous upgrade of the risk management practices with improvements in the governance standards and enhancing of information management systems. The rationalisation exercises aimed at maximising cost efficiency and reaping benefits of group synergies has led to the emergence of more complex group structures of more diversified financial conglomerates. In relation to this, a holistic and integrated regulatory approach is being adopted to ensure that the activities of these financial conglomerates do not introduce excessive risks to the financial system. Risk management standards are applied across the group and safeguards have been introduced to ensure risks are efficiently managed with necessary infrastructure for an overall view of the risk exposures within the group.

I want employees to speak up. That’s why, at the start of my tenure as president, I made it clear that I wanted the “best idea to win,” regardless of where it originated or whether it contradicted something that I thought. In some instances, that will require people to admit mistakes. In that regard, I have to set the example that we all make mistakes, and that recognizing and addressing them head on—and, importantly, learning from them—is the best approach. A few years ago we created a new group at the New York Fed called Integrated Policy Analysis. Its purpose was to consolidate teams from many parts of the organization to develop a more integrated view of the economic and financial environment to help inform our policy responsibilities. I was a strong advocate for the idea. But, after two years of effort, it became clear to me and others that it was not working as well as we had hoped. There were a lot of reasons for that, and in the end we dissolved the group and reassigned the work and staff. I let our employees know that I took a calculated risk and it didn’t work out. By doing this, I aimed to show that when things do not go as planned, the best approach is to address it, not to be silent. I hope that, when our people are confronted with disappointing results in their work, they will do the same.
Eight, the active use of technology in economic transformation, so that backward societies or groups could “leap-frog” rather than drift along at “snail’s pace”. At the same time, we also have to keep in mind that the sustainability for growth in developing countries will be greatly enhanced by political stability. Therefore, care must be taken to ensure that any political crisis which threatens to undermine economic progress needs to be resolved quickly and satisfactorily, so that the growth momentum will not be hampered in the short to medium terms. Mr. Chairman, we should all be glad that we are today here in Karachi, deliberating on the topic of “Harnessing Sustainable Growth”, because it is a topic that will touch our lives very closely, today as well as tomorrow. In doing so, we will naturally have to closely study the worldwide conditions, trends, needs, challenges, future strategies and the many issues connected to the realization of this outcome. It is certainly a complex topic, and it will not have cut and dried answers; nor will it have an easy path, free of obstacles. At the same time there is one fact that we must all be very clear about. i.e., harnessing growth will only be the beginning. If so, we must all realize that while the beginning would be vital, we would need to methodically build capacity to sustain the growth and to keep going, amidst whatever challenges we may encounter. Implementation of policies would therefore be the key to sustainable growth.

Ajith Nivard Cabraal: Harnessing sustainable growth in emerging markets Keynote address by Mr Ajith Nivard Cabraal, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at the 2nd World Management Summit 2008, Karachi, Pakistan, 11 March 2008. *  *  *  As salaam Aleikum, Ayubowan, Good Morning. Mr. Chairman, Distinguished Delegates, Ladies and Gentlemen, At the outset, I wish to thank the organizers of this World Management Summit for inviting me to deliver the keynote address. I am also greatly touched by the wonderful hospitality accorded to me in this very interesting and historic city of Karachi. Mr. Chairman, I consider it a privilege and honour to share my thoughts and views on a very timely topic, “Harnessing Sustainable Growth in Emerging Markets” at this important forum. I hope I would be able to plant a few seeds in your distinguished minds so that such seeds may be nurtured by you in your deliberations to follow. As a first step, let us examine the current global and regional trends in relation to World Economic Growth, so that we could deal with this topic in a wider perspective. As we know, over the past few years, the global economy has been experiencing one of its’ strongest sustained periods of growth, since the early 1970s. This expansion is projected to be very strong even after accounting for the impact of the recent financial market turbulence. Significantly, this growth has, as its foundation, the strong results of the emerging markets which have been leading the way.
For example we are not certain that any leading bank today consistently adjusts the value of all of its assets based on each asset’s contribution to diversification. Consequently, for the time being we have decided instead to establish standard estimates of diversification that banks would apply. I know that many members of the industry have accepted that choice as prudent for now, but you have also stressed the need to move forward with an approach that is more consistent with the existing treatment of market risk and the emerging practices in operational risk management. We are ready to start this work as soon as it is possible. Still, portfolio theory suggests that an obvious next step to further enhance the risk-sensitivity of the capital framework would be to incorporate calculations of diversification benefits into  BIS Review 42/2003  5  the framework. In the coming years, and we can start very soon, we look forward to working with banks, with banking associations such as the BBA, and with academics and researchers to find ways to move Basel in the direction of full credit risk models. Likewise, the Committee must continue to monitor developments in the industry to be prepared to harness other improvements in risk measurement and management practices. It is at once exciting and perhaps a bit daunting to think about the work ahead for all of us, whether on a national, regional, or global level.

As we near completion of the New Accord, I am frequently asked the same question that you proposed as the title of my presentation: “what next for Basel?” Rest assured that we will not rest once we’ve introduced the New Accord. Indeed, some hints of topics that the Committee may wish to tackle next emerge even in the comment letters sent by the industry. One good example might be to consider the incorporation of full credit risk models in the calculation of minimal capital requirements. In theory, a bank’s capital requirements would then reflect to a greater degree the economic benefits of diversification in its balance sheet. Some respondents have long asked the Committee to climb this mountain now in the New Accord. As you may know, the Committee early in the process evaluated proposals that would have allowed advanced banks to estimate the degree to which their assets might behave similarly or default together. We know that some banks are making commendable progress in thinking about ways to estimate the value of diversification. Nonetheless, we remain concerned about the degree of confidence one might have in those estimates, given the relative lack of data available on which to base them. Furthermore, we are concerned that it would be difficult for third parties to validate any estimates at this time. Finally, we are not convinced about the consistency of application of these diversification effects.