samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Following on from this, the higher the potential growth rate, the faster the Swedish GDP can grow without putting the inflation target at risk. A natural starting point for calculating potential growth in the economy is the growth trend for productivity and the labour supply. Productivity growth has shown tendencies towards improvement during the 1990s. It is probable that factors such as the new low-inflation rate regime and greater openness with stiffer competition have played an important role in this development. However, it is far from certain that the high rates of increase at the end of the 1990s will continue. They mirrored both a rapid growth in the private sector relative to the public sector and a strong growth in the IT/telecom sector. Nevertheless, it is probable that the long-term increase in productivity is higher now than it was during the 1970s and 1980s. The number of hours worked has also developed relatively favourably since the mid-1990s. However, this development has largely depended on demand, influenced by the fact that there were considerable unutilised resources in the economy after the crisis at the beginning of the 1990s. With regard to the labour supply, there is less reason for optimism, partly because the demographic situation will be adverse in a few years' time, with more departures from the labour force relative to entries. Nor are there clear signs that economic policy has been organised to contributed to an increase in the labour supply in future.

The assessment made by the Riksbank so far is that average working hours will show a tentative rise when economic activity improves. To summarise, there is reason for considerable concern regarding the future labour supply. If there is reason to be slightly more optimistic over productivity growth, the opposite applies to the labour supply. A number of factors, such as demographic developments, absence due to illness and the proposal for shorter working hours all indicate a decline in the labour supply over the coming decade, unless there is a change in policy. 4  BIS Review 16/2003  Future potential growth What does all this mean for the assessment of the economy's potential growth capacity right now and in the coming years? If we uncritically assume the simple model I outlined earlier, we could calculate an estimate of potential growth by simply adding together the trend values I showed in the diagram on productivity growth and the number of hours worked. I have done this in my next diagram (Figure 9). Measured in this way, potential growth was just over 1.5 per cent up to around 1992. Since then it has risen gradually to approximately 3 per cent in 2001. However, my discussion of the causes of the decline in actual growth in recent years showed that there are good reasons to believe that 3 per cent is an overestimate of the growth potential in the Swedish economy today.
Sabine Lautenschläger: European banking union - the place to be? Speech by Ms Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank, at the Biannual high-level networking seminar on economic and financial issues, organised by Danmarks Nationalbank, Copenhagen, 14 May 2018. * * * “Getting to Denmark” has become a catchphrase among those who study how societies and economies develop. And indeed, for many countries around the world, Denmark is the place to be – or rather the place to become. After all, Denmark stands for a stable democracy, sound institutions and a strong economy. And that’s not all. Denmark also stands for happiness. The United Nation’s world happiness index shows that, on top of all this, Denmark is also home to a very happy people. This has not gone unnoticed; indeed, there are many who strive to follow your example. Your idea of hygge has become a huge trend in countries as close by as Germany and as far away as the United States. So on many counts, Denmark is the place to be. And I for one am very happy to be here today. But I’m not here to talk about Denmark. I am here to talk about Europe, or rather the European banking union. In my remarks, I will argue that the banking union is also the place to be. Its beginnings, though, were not exactly hyggelig. In 2012, things were not going well in the euro area.

To summarise, European banking supervision allows us to take a broader view, which gives us deeper insights and improves our analysis. At the same time, there are more views around the table, which helps to counter biases, including national ones, and leads to better decisions. Banking supervision improves. And if a bank should fail, European resolution helps to deal with this in a way that preserves financial stability and saves taxpayers money. 2/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  So, the banking union stands for more stability. It might thus enhance the trust markets have in banks, which in turn might lower funding costs. But there is more to it than that. The banking union also stands for consistency. We have harmonised many of the tools that we supervisors use, most notably our main tool, the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process. So when we supervise banks, we apply the same high standards across the entire euro area. And when systemic banks need to be resolved, this too is done in a consistent manner. In other words, the banking union helps to level the playing field for banks in the euro area in terms of supervisory practices and approaches. When banks operate across borders, they do not need to adapt to 19 totally different forms of supervision, for instance. At the same time, they can engage in fair competition. They need not fear that their competitors have an edge just because supervisors in another country are more relaxed.
These facts also indicate that the income generating activities in the fisheries sector too could be developed substantially in the coastal areas with the provision of appropriate banking facilities, particularly for multi-day boats, fishing gear and other ancillary needs such as ice plants, and storage facilities. Over the past several years, the Central Bank has also initiated several credit schemes applicable throughout the country, aimed at promoting regional development and poverty alleviation. In particular, work has commenced on a new Poverty Alleviation Micro Finance Project to cover conflict-affected districts. Approximately 3,000 beneficiary groups with more than 12,000 low-income families have already been organized within the Jaffna peninsula under this project. We have also fast-tracked the Agro-Livestock Development Loan scheme, which is another scheme that could provide increased benefits to this Province. My dear friends, during the several recent visits that I made to Jaffna, I always made it a point to meet with the Chambers of Commerce officials, bankers, Teachers, students, villagers, fishermen and many others. We received many valuable suggestions from them. In particular, we received too very useful ideas to open a Central Bank’s Provincial Office and to arrange for a Special Northern Regional Development Fund for the Northern Province. I am glad to announce today that we will implement both such initiatives in the coming months. My dear friends, I thought it may also be appropriate to use this opportunity to make a special appeal to the Sri Lankan Tamil Diaspora, living in all parts of the world.

The HSBC Bank with its global connections could now facilitate financial transactions in the North with all parts of the world, while HSBC’s presence in the Jaffna Peninsula from today onwards, would convey an important signal to the world that tangible progress is being made in post conflict Sri Lanka. I wish Mr Nick A Nicolaou, his team in Sri Lanka the HSBC and all their customers, especially the ones in this area, all success. Thank you. BIS Review 16/2010  3  Lars E O Svensson: Inflation targeting after the financial crisis Speech by Prof Lars E O Svensson, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the International Research Conference “Challenges to Central Banking in the Context of Financial Crisis”, Mumbai, 12 February 2010. *  *  *  I thank Charles Bean, Claes Berg, Alan Blinder, Stephen Cecchetti, Chuck Freedman, Charles Goodhart, Lars Nyberg, Irma Rosenberg, Hyun Shin, Frank Smets and Staffan Viotti for discussions of these issues. The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of other members of the Riksbank’s executive board or of the Riksbank’s staff. Hanna Armelius and Hans Dellmo of the Riksbank’s staff contributed to this speech. As the world economy begins to recover from the financial crisis and the resulting deep recession of the global economy, there is a lively debate about what caused the crisis and how the risks of future crises can be reduced.
Several reports have made the case for rethinking local economic policies, including Michael Jacobs’ work as part of the IPPR Commission on Economic Justice.1 The Government has put “place” centre-stage in its own policy agenda.2 I discuss ways in which analytical techniques and data might help in shaping those policy choices. Some areas of public policy can only operate at the national rather than local level, such as monetary policy. Even then, however, a local perspective can be important for better understanding the economic issues people face and for building understanding and trust among those people. That is why the Bank of England has recently augmented its own local initiatives, as I will discuss. Other central banks are following suit. 1 2  IPPR Commission on Economic Justice (2018). See also Collier (2018). Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (2017). 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  In his recent book, Raghu Rajan blames neglect of the Third Pillar of society – community – relative to the market and the state (the first two pillars) for rising societal disconnection and mistrust.3 Rajan is right. Economic policymakers, including central banks, have a pivotal role to play in resurrecting that Third Pillar, in making economic policy local, to better support our economies and societies. Here is how. Mapping the Economy  Let me begin with some simple mapping of the economy. The most widely-used metric of economic success is Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

26.06.2018  Taking up of office by the Governor of the Banco de España  Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Honourable Ministers and Authorities, ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues and friends, I believe today calls, above all, for a round of gratitude. First, I wish to thank Ministers Calviño and Montero for their presence here today. May they rest assured I am firmly committed to maintaining the close and loyal collaboration traditionally offered by the Banco de España to the Ministries for the Economy and Finance. I also wish to thank the previous minister, Román Escolano, for his presence at this ceremony, and for his proposal and defence of my appointment before the Parliamentary Committee for the Economy and Competitiveness. And my gratitude extends to the representatives of the Committee accompanying us today. I undertake to make every effort to improve the capacity of the Banco de España to face the challenges addressed during the Parliamentary Committee hearing. Ministers, as I am surrounded above all by colleagues, I trust you will allow me to continue in a more informal tone. As you know, including a three-year tour at the European Central Bank, I now have two decades behind me at the Banco de España. Professionally speaking, this is, then, my home. It is a real honour for me to have been appointed governor.
If clearing houses are not themselves to become a new manifestation of the too-big-to-fail problem, clearing house risk management will need to be transformed. For example, the setting of margin to cover risks to the clearing house relies on real-time information on aggregate exposures to counterparties and products. Common standards for data, LEIs and PIs, make that a more realistic prospect. A fourth dimension of the reform agenda is to make the resolution of the world’s largest financial firms easier and speedier. The resolution of complex firms is rarely either. Reconciling competing claims on Lehman Brothers’ asset pool has already taken insolvency practitioners three and a half years and thousands of man hours. It will take many more years before it is complete. Homogenised information systems, which can be aggregated across business line and counterparty, could transform this resolution process. This relies on effective and timely information systems on the key counterparties and the key risk exposures. Counterparty traceability, like counterfeit drug traceability, is central to containing the panic once failure occurs. For both, a common language is key. (c)  Mapping the network  The maps of the financial world being used and developed by regulators today broadly resemble those used and developed by cartographers in the 15th century. Large parts of the geographic globe were at that point uncharted territory, a source of fear and foreboding. Today, large parts of the financial globe are similarly uncharted or cast in shadows. They too are a source of regulatory fear and foreboding.

The result in many cases has been substantial changes in retail banking services: for example, the selling off of business units, the closing down of branches, the expansion into fee-based business, such as MPF and insurance services, the development of more cost-effective modes of service delivery, such as the ATM network and the Internet, and the imposition of specific fees and charges on services that did not incur fees and charges in the past. Consumers also need to react to the changing environment – for example, through making use of delivery channels such as ATMs, telephone banking or the internet that reduce the cost of using banking services. Cost minimisation also provides the incentive for consumers to shop around, and new technology in the form of the Internet enhances the means of doing so. With the shopping around comes awareness of what else is on offer, and greater expectations on the part of the consumer. Less positively, there has been disruption and anxiety, which has been reflected in the steadily growing number of complaints and protests, and in the greater political attention being paid to this subject. What is the stance of the HKMA? We do not, as I have already said, regulate fees and charges. But we seek to ensure that there is transparency in the provision of services, particularly in the setting out of fees and charges.
Interest rates were assessed by the Executive Board of Norges Bank yesterday. Interest rates were left unchanged. Norges Bank’s key interest rate, the sight deposit rate, therefore remains at 7 per cent. According to Norges Bank’s assessment, with an unchanged interest rate, the probability that inflation two years ahead will be higher than 2½ per cent is the same as the probability that it will be lower. A sharp rise in labour costs is contributing to a relatively high rise in prices for goods and services produced in Norway. A persistently strong krone will contribute to keeping down prices for imported goods. The strong krone will have consequences for activity in the internationally exposed sector. Together with prospects for low inflation internationally, the strong krone is the most important force acting as a counterweight to the sharp rise in domestic costs. 4  BIS Review 51/2002

The amendments made in the Law of the Central Bank of Turkey in 2001 have been a turning point and instrumental for the efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability. With these amendments, achieving and maintaining price stability is stated as the primary objective of the Central Bank and the Bank acquired its instrumental independence. In fact, the independency has given the Bank the opportunity to set its policies for longer terms, free of political cycles and pressures. As an assurance given to the public to ensure the long term price stability objective, the independence of the Central Bank of Turkey together with its transparent and effective communication policy have increased the credibility of the monetary policy. Besides, the new monetary policy framework implemented first as implicit and then as full-fledged inflation targeting regime together with the floating exchange rate regime have contributed a lot to the decline in dollarization since 2002, as the literature 10 suggests. In this respect, we can observe the findings of the portfolio approach in Turkey very clearly. To be more specific, the volatility of exchange rates has increased due to floating exchange rate regime on the one hand and inflation and its volatility have declined significantly on the other.
But this task has also become a pressing one since, as euro area membership precludes using the devaluation tool, reform of the employment institutional framework is vital for increasing productivity, and thus for restoring competitiveness and raising our growth rate. Lately, those convinced of the importance of this reform have grown in number. But among those showing reluctance, a new argument has now arisen which seeks to play down the need for reform because, they say, it will take time to bear fruit. I have two counter-arguments here. First, Spain has moved so far away from the various employment institutional framework models in the developed countries that a rapid approximation to them could have more immediate effects than in other countries. Admittedly, a reform of this type would not swiftly lower our unemployment rate to the average European level, which is below 10%; but a reduction in the unemployment rate, no matter how modest at first, would have most favourable consequences for domestic and external confidence in the Spanish economy. What’s more, even if it is thought that results will only emerge gradually, slowness in taking effect is no argument for delaying this reform a minute longer; rather, it is an excellent reason to adopt it immediately so as to be able to enjoy its effects as soon as possible. Regarding fiscal consolidation, there is little to say and much to do.

The government is expected to rein in local government spending, tighten curbs on residential property purchases, and seek to reduce excess industrial capacity. But the slowdown is likely to be measured and the risk of a “hard landing” has narrowed. A Goldilocks economy but three grumpy bears may not be far away A striking feature of the global economy is how subdued inflation has been despite broad-based economic expansion and highly accommodative monetary policies. This benign inflation environment provides the runway for very gradual monetary policy tightening and credit conditions remaining accommodative for longer. Many analysts have characterised the current configuration of healthy growth, low inflation, and easy financial conditions as a Goldilocks scenario: a global economy that is chugging along, not too hot, not too cold. And financial markets see this happy scenario as self-reinforcing, sustained, and accommodated over multiple years. This has supported high equity valuations, low bond yields and narrow credit spreads. But as David Skilling reminded us recently, the Goldilocks story is not complete without the three bears. The absence of the bears does not mean they do not exist. They could return any time. There are unseen risks out there – that we ignore at our peril. Each of us will have our own list of three bears. Let me share with you what I see as the three bears that might return to spoil Goldilocks’ happy stupor. My “papa bear” is inflation; “mama bear” protectionism; and “baby bear” financial instability.
As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the FOMC or the Federal Reserve System.1 In terms of the economic outlook, the situation does not appear to have changed much since the last FOMC meeting. Some recent activity indicators have been on the softer side, pointing to a relatively weak fourth quarter for real GDP growth. But this needs to be weighed against the strength evident in the U.S. labor market. I continue to expect that the economy will expand at a pace slightly above its long-term trend in 2016. In other words, I anticipate sufficient economic strength to push the unemployment rate down a bit further and to more fully utilize the nation’s labor resources. 1  Antoine Martin, Jamie McAndrews, Jonathan McCarthy, Paolo Pesenti and Joseph Tracy assisted in preparing these remarks. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Turning to inflation, we continue to fall short of our 2 percent objective for the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. But I take it as a positive sign that the core PCE inflation rate – that is, excluding food and energy – has been quite stable despite the downward pressure being exerted by lower energy prices on the prices of non-energy goods and services, as well as the drop in non-energy import prices from a firmer dollar. Going into more detail, U.S. economic activity has areas of both strength and weakness. On the stronger side of the ledger, domestic demand is doing reasonably well.

Looking at the post-war period, whenever the unemployment rate has increased by more than 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, the economy has always ended up in a full-blown recession with the unemployment rate rising by at least 1.9 percentage points. This is an outcome to avoid, especially given that in an economic downturn the last to be hired are often the first to be fired. The goal is the maximum sustainable level of employment – in other words, the most job opportunities for the most people over the long run. Some of you may be wondering whether the risk of a recession isn’t already quite high? And, if so, doesn’t this imply a need for special care in adjusting monetary policy? After all, the current economic expansion is more than six years old – a bit long in the tooth by post-war standards. Even so, recession risk did not play a major factor in my thinking. Economic expansions don’t simply die of old age. They primarily end either because monetary policy is kept too loose for too long, thereby necessitating a subsequent sharp tightening in monetary policy to prevent a significant inflation overshoot, or because some large adverse shock hits the economy that the central bank cannot easily offset. Mitigating the first risk of being forced to choke off the expansion argues for getting started with policy normalization now rather than holding off. With respect to the second risk of unanticipated shocks, this is obviously very difficult for the central bank to insulate the economy from.