samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
They also have dropped steadily relative to those of simpler manufactured products – by 30 per cent over the last two decades – reflecting superior productivity growth.1 Your customers and society as a whole are the beneficiaries of your doing much more with less. The strong recovery of UK manufacturing over the past year – with growth stronger than at any point in the decade prior to the crisis – is a testament to the sector’s focus on continual improvement. Manufacturing punches well above its weight in spending on research and development. Manufactured products R&D has grown by a quarter since the mid-1980s and currently accounts for well over two-thirds of total UK spending on innovation. Advanced manufacturing sectors, including pharmaceutical, aerospace and automotive, represents well over half of this amount. Such contributions are crucial for the UK’s prosperity because our long-run economic performance hinges on productivity growth. Productivity is the ultimate determinant of people’s incomes, and with it the capacity of our economy to support health, wealth and happiness. The best contribution the Bank of England can make to these goals is to maintain monetary and financial stability. Our remit for monetary stability is simple: achieve 2% CPI inflation by setting Bank Rate, the fulcrum around which all other interest rates in the economy pivot, and, as necessary, conducting large-scale asset purchases to affect overall financial conditions. Our monetary policy framework is known as Inflation Targeting. 1  Based on ONS producer price indices.

Christian Noyer: Monetary and financial research – its impact on policies and society Opening and closing speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Conference for the 20th anniversary of the Bank of France Foundation, Paris, 14 September 2015. *  *  *  Opening speech Ladies and Gentlemen, I will now switch to English, given the international audience and speakers that we are quite lucky to have today. I would first of all like to express the great pleasure I have to open this conference for the twentieth anniversary of the Banque de France Foundation for Monetary, banking and financial economic research. I welcome the prominent speakers who made us the honor of joining us today – Yann Algan from Sciences Po in Paris and Luigi Zingales from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business – and all our chairs and discussants who also are renowned economists in their respective fields. A few words about the topic of this conference now. The idea of this conference is to take a step back and some time to reflect on monetary and financial research in general, and its impact on policies and society. We will thus evoke the role of economics and economists within our society. The two provocative papers discussed today provide a very nice opportunity for such a discussion. They both point out several concerns about economic research and finance.
Page 1  Who’s concentrating? Trends in the life insurance sector and the need for strong reinsurance and investment risk management − speech by Charlotte Gerken Given at the Bank of America 27th Annual Financials CEO Conference  Page 2  Published on 20 September 2022  Charlotte Gerken speaks about concentration risks in Life Insurance, coming from: increasing longevity reinsurance; use of funded reinsurance; and growth of illiquid assets. Charlotte says the Prudent Person Principle (PPP) is important to address these risks. But regulatory requirements need to support good risk management. The PRA is thinking about how to address concentration risk. This includes how to manage risk from reinsurance, and the matching adjustment (MA) review. Speech Good afternoon and thank you to Bank of America for inviting me today. The role of insurance is to protect individuals and businesses from uncertainty: to diversify and manage risks that participants in the wider economy cannot diversify and manage themselves. The subject of risk diversification and concentration will be well-understood by this institutional investor audience. I will take a prudential regulatory lens to this subject, focussing on developments in the UK life insurance sector and our supervisory response. Core to every insurer’s business model are the ideas of risk pooling from a large population, leveraging their specialist expertise as long-term investors, making insurance safe and affordable for policyholders and returns attractive to capital providers.

Its main elements now include: The Financial Stability Advisory Council (FSAC): a consultative body comprising the minister of finance, the governor of the Central Bank, and the chairman of the Financial Supervision Commission; The Central Bank as the designated resolution authority for banks; the resolution function of the BNB is outlined in the Law on Recovery and Resolution of Credit Institutions and Investment Firms, adopted in mid-2015, which transposed the BRRD in the Bulgarian legislation; A mechanism to fund resolution measures by the newly established Bank Resolution Fund (BRF) which is funded by contributions from the banks; the target level of the resources collected in the BRF is 2% of the amount of covered deposits of all banks licensed in Bulgaria and must be achieved by end-2024; A comprehensive resolution toolkit directly transposed from the BRRD comprising: (1) the resolution tools (sale of business; bridge institution, asset separation, and bail-in), and (2) the government stabilization tools (public equity support and temporary public ownership). Progress has been already made in operationalizing the crisis management framework in Bulgaria.
Since the beginning of the crisis, its communication includes more the so-called “Forward guidance", i.e. pointing to the future monetary policy setup. Mario Draghi’s statement from 2012, when the future of the euro was in jeopardy, is well known, a statement that has stabilized financial markets and confidence – “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough”. Moreover, the scope and the volume of our functions significantly enlarged. Macro-prudential function, banking solution, consumer protection in the financial services sector – all of these are new dimensions for us, which also mean change in the context and improvement of the way we communicate. The changes in the last decade have been particularly pronounced in terms of 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  information and statistics requests from central banks. As the uncertainty grows, so does the “impatience” for faster access to data and information on the economy and financial sector condition. At today’s workshop, the accent was put particularly on this part of our communication – statistics, which is pivotal for our decision-making, and equally important when properly communicating and explaining them to the public. For the first time, we decided that this event should be fully devoted to this topic, taking into consideration your interests expressed in the survey conducted last year, as well as the interests you most often addressed this year.

It is no longer a complement to our regular tasks, but it is one of them – a separate and important task. Thank you. 1 Dincer/Eichengreen/Geraats revised Central Bank Transparency Data Set for 1998–2015, April 2019. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
We even managed to do so, in certain issues, ahead of time rather than catching up in a crisis induced situation. Yes, there were still business failures - indeed this is an inevitable feature of free markets - but there is little moral hazard for the public sector. Yes, there were still cracks showing up in unregulated areas that require mending, for example recently in equity margin financing, but nothing of a systemic nature or of any threat to the stability of our currency. 10. These strong economic fundamentals of Hong Kong also do not require Hong Kong to get involved in the process of competitive devaluation of currencies recently seen in the Asian region. In the second half of 1997, the Thai baht depreciated by 49%, the Indonesian rupiah by 56%, the Korean won by 48%, the Malaysian ringgit and the Philippine peso both by 35%. Even the relatively strong economies of Taiwan and Singapore had allowed their currencies both to depreciate by 15%. Notwithstanding this, the Hong Kong economy is still expected to grow in 1998 by 3.5% in real terms. Although this is somewhat below the growth rate of 5.2% recorded in 1997, it is a highly respectable growth rate in the light of the circumstances that we face in the Asian region and is higher than most of the economies in the region that have devalued their currencies. Most developed economies would be delighted to achieve such a growth rate in 1998.

Interestingly, the higher interest rates have been attracting some inflow of funds into the Hong Kong dollar, as investors took advantage of the higher return and as borrowers chose to finance their activities by raising US dollars and switching them into Hong Kong dollars, being comfortable about a little currency mismatch given our strong commitment to the link with the US dollar. As a result, Hong Kong’s foreign reserves have continued to 19 Foreign currency assets as at end of: $ billion  June 1997 July 1997 August 1997 September 1997 October 1997 November 1997 December 1997 January 1998  82.9 81.7 85.3 88.1 91.4 96.5 92.8 98.1  BIS Review 19/1998  -8grow, contributing further to the easing of Hong Kong dollar interest rates at the longer end of the yield curve. Pain of Adjustment 26. There is no doubt, however, that the discipline of the currency board system requiring rather harsh adjustments through interest rate changes means that there are innocent parties who may rather unfortunately be affected. I am conscious of the plight of, for example, the businessmen who happened to have interbank rate related loans due for interest rate fixing on 23 October 1997, or the home mortgage payers who have now to live with a mortgage rate, after two increases, which is 150 basis points higher than before, or those who have been investing their life long savings in the stock market, the property market and other asset markets, seeing these markets fall under the influence of higher interest rates.
Even with an agreement in place that might reduce the probability of a default by Bear, we decided that independent of that outcome, it was important to get assured liquidity to primary dealers by Monday morning, to address the accelerating process of deleveraging and tightening liquidity seen in the financial system. On Sunday morning, executives at JPMorgan Chase informed us that they had become significantly more concerned about the scale of the risk that Bear and its many affiliates had assumed. They were also concerned about the ability of JPMorgan Chase to absorb some of Bear’s trading portfolio, particularly given the uncertainty ahead about the ultimate scale of losses facing the financial system. In this context, we began to explore ways in which we could help facilitate a more orderly solution to the Bear situation. We did not have the authority to acquire an equity interest in either Bear or JPMorgan Chase, nor were we prepared to guarantee Bear’s very substantial obligations. And the only feasible option for buying time would have required open ended financing by the Fed to Bear into an accelerating withdrawal by Bear’s customers and counterparties. We did, however, have the ability to lend against collateral, as in the back-to-back nonrecourse arrangement that carried Bear into the weekend. After extensive discussion with my colleagues at the New York Fed, Chairman Bernanke, and Secretary Paulson, and with their full support, the New York Fed and JPMorgan Chase reached an agreement in principle that the New York Fed would assist with non-recourse financing.

The actions that we took were intended to protect the economy from the consequences of risks to the financial system that could have decreased the availability of home mortgage and other credit, put further downward pressure on home values, eroded retirement savings and ultimately led to a loss of jobs and incomes as businesses faced added difficulties in financing expanded operations and job creation. Policymakers – both in the Federal Reserve and in the federal government – must continue to be proactive in their response to rapidly changing circumstances. Finally, I want to express my admiration and appreciation to members of my staff who have performed with great skill and care under extreme pressure. And I would like to also thank Chairman Bernanke, Secretary Paulson, Chairman Cox and my many other colleagues in the Fed and the supervisory community. Thank you again for giving me the opportunity to appear before you today. BIS Review 39/2008  9
Page 1  Bringing inflation back to the 2% target, no ifs no buts − speech by Andrew Bailey Given at the Mansion House Financial and Professional Services Dinner  Page 2  Published on 19 July 2022  Andrew Bailey talks about the impact of four recent shocks on our economy. These shocks have pushed inflation up, he says, but we will set monetary policy to bring it back down to our target. Speech Lord Mayor, it is a great pleasure to be here at Mansion House this evening. The return to more normal times allows those of us from the Bank to pop round to our neighbour for an informal light dinner. It is also pleasing that you have been able to resume travelling in pursuit of your important role of promoting the UK and in particular the services of the City. We thank you for that important work. Quite appropriately you have also been keen to ensure that there is a suitable number of events to mark your Irish roots, the strong connections between the City and Ireland, and the rich vein of form of the Irish rugby team. I would like to join you [and the Chancellor] in welcoming Paschal Donohoe. It’s always good to see you Paschal. Chancellor, congratulations on taking up the office. I know from a lot of experience that you will find a warm welcome in the City. In my experience, you will find that people in the City want to get things done.

In 2001, we expect the US economy to expand by less than half the rate recorded last year. Growth in the Japanese economy is also sluggish, but the downturn in Japan has continued for ten years. 4  BIS Review 19/2001  At the beginning of the 1990s the financial bubble burst, following a sharp increase in stock and property values in the preceding years. The banking industry faced serious problems, which have still not be solved. In addition, government debt has increased sharply in recent years, but neither strong growth in public spending nor near-zero interest rate levels has sufficed to boost growth in the Japanese economy. BIS Review 19/2001  5  Growth in Europe was weak in the mid-1990s. The situation has shown a substantial improvement, particularly from 1997. Growth has picked up and unemployment has declined in an environment of moderate price and wage inflation. The US and Japan account for close to a third of the world economy. When their economies deteriorate, the question is whether the upturn in Europe is sufficiently robust to maintain its momentum. Historically, there has been a close correlation between developments in the US and Europe. Slow growth in the US economy will also now have an effect on demand for European goods, but the effects via financial markets are likely to be more important. A turnaround in the US could feed through to European stock markets and may also trigger financial unrest.
The economic situation Growth in the Norwegian economy has been strong since summer 2003. The reduction in Norges Bank’s key rate through 2003 and into 2004 resulted in low interest rates. Low interest rates have contributed to a relatively sharp rise in household demand throughout this upturn. At the same time, solid growth globally has generated increased demand for many Norwegian export goods and thereby high prices. Fixed investment in the petroleum sector has increased strongly, resulting in growing demand for goods and services supplied by mainland enterprises. Mainland fixed investment has also picked up gradually. The mainland economy expanded by 3.7 per cent in 2005. Growth in private services, construction and electricity production was strong. So far, a substantial share of output growth has been attributable to strong growth in person-hours worked. The fall in sickness absence in 2004 provided an additional supply of labour to enterprises, but sickness absence increased through 2005. Wage developments reflect and influence business cycles. Strong employment growth in the 1990s resulted in a rise in labour costs, which in turn had a dampening impact on growth. Moderate wage growth in recent years is being accompanied by a strong cyclical upturn. The increase in the number of employed has been relatively moderate throughout the upturn. Employment has shown a smaller rise than in previous cyclical upturns in the 1980s and 1990s, but this is now changing. The labour market continues to tighten at a rapid pace.

A further interest rate increase will stabilise growth in output and employment. Capacity utilisation may in time be brought down somewhat and stabilise. This will curb the rise in inflation, so that it stabilises close to target. Developments in inflation and capacity utilisation seem to provide a reasonable balance between the various objectives of monetary policy. The interest rate is sufficiently low for inflation to approach the target of 2.5 per cent while avoiding a capacity utilisation level that is too high. Projections are uncertain. We have illustrated this uncertainty in the projections for the interest rate, the krone exchange rate, inflation and capacity utilisation using fan charts. The width of the fan is based on historical disturbances. However, there is no certainty that future disturbances will be of the same character or scale. The wider the fans, the more uncertain the forecasts are. In other words, uncertainty with regard to the interest rate reflects the monetary policy response to unexpected disturbances in inflation, output and the exchange rate. BIS Review 35/2006  5  When the interest rate, as forecast in the baseline scenario, is raised to a more normal level, Norges Bank will be able to assess the effects of interest rate changes and other new information about economic developments. According to our projections, inflation will be close to target three years ahead.
-  The cyclical component pertains to the way we can combine agility and  predictability in a very uncertain environment. We should be careful not to return to secrecy, or to unnecessarily add to financial and economic volatility. Otherwise, as research at the Banque de France shows, economic agents may begin to question our ability and commitment to fulfil our objectives, which could translate into dis-anchored long-term inflation expectationsiv. I suggest in my recent Jackson Hole speech some principles for this “new predictability”v. Not having a forward guidance does not mean, cannot mean, not having a narrative and a monetary strategy. -  The structural component is that our communication must not only resist  the risk of “political dominance” or “market dominance” that would run counter to our independence, but two additional risks that appear more specific to the current period. The first risk is the dictatorship of short-termism, imposed on us by the recent series of crises. Of course, we have to deal with them, but we must not become a prisoner of emergencies. We must continue to focus on the longer-term, in keeping with our role of advanced sentinels: central banks rely on their close monitoring of all financial and economic indicators, and also on their anticipation of how they may evolve in the future. The second risk is that of corporatist fragmentation. It is the other disease of the century. Of course, we are not responsible for it, and we are not corporatists.

International meetings in Basel at the Bank for International Settlements –which I have the honour to chair–, or here in Washington at the IMF, are not places for mundane agreement, but forums for true dialogue, by building on a common diagnosis, and sharing openly our concerns: we know that we won’t be leaked, instrumentalised or distorted. This is the only way for trust to prosper, and this is how we will progress together. Michel Camdessus himself has symbolised this value of humanity like none other in his behaviour and relationships. I thank you for your attention. i  Aristotle, Nicomachean Ethics, 4th century B.C. Nicholas Oresme, Treatise on the Origin, Nature, Law, and Alterations of Money, circa 1355 iii BIS, Inequality hysteresis and the effects of macroeconomic stabilisation policies, Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, Enisse Kharroubi, Emanuel Kohlscheen, Marco Lombardi and Benoît Mojon, May 2022 iv Istrefi, K. and Piloiu, A., 2014. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations, Banque de France Working papers 511; Istrefi, K. and Piloiu, A., 2020, Public opinion on central banks when economic policy is uncertain, Revue d’Economie Politique v François Villeroy de Galhau, Monetary policy post-pandemic : balancing between science and art, predictability and reactivity, speech, Jackson Hole, 27 August 2022 ii
This is facilitated partly by a more adaptive and proportionate regulatory response. ... Ending in Malaysian... 1 Population of Muslims expected to grow by 70% to reach 3 billion Muslims by 2060 from current 1.8 billion  Muslims. Source: Thomson Reuters report, “The State of the Islamic Economy 2018–2019”. 2 Source: Halal Industry Development Corporation 3 Bank Negara Malaysia survey  3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

Stable inflation expectations can also have a stabilising effect on exchange rate expectations, but growth in public expenditure and prices for Norwegian exports goods also have an influence on exchange rate expectations. Surveys conducted by TNS Gallup show that inflation expectations two and five years ahead have remained virtually unchanged over the past year. A selection of economists expect annual inflation to be about 2½ per cent five years ahead and somewhat lower two years ahead. Norges Bank has sought to counter a fall in inflation expectations. Through the first half of 2004, we stated: “With the current low level of inflation, it is appropriate to be particularly vigilant as regards developments in consumer prices.”1 At the monetary policy meetings between September and November, the Executive Board stated that “particular weight must be given to factors that may delay an increase in inflation.”2 Inflation picked up towards the end of the last year. When we became more confident that inflation would not continue to fall, but appeared instead to be picking up, we refrained from repeating this statement. 1  See Norges Bank press releases of 21 April and 26 May. The press releases following the monetary policy meeting of 17 December 2003, 28 January, 11 March and 1 July 2004 included similar formulations. 2  See Norges Bank press releases of 22 September and 3 November. 2  BIS Review 38/2005  Output and employment After slowing around the beginning of 2003, growth in the Norwegian economy picked up markedly through 2004.