samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Huge progress has been made towards implementation of the Good Friday agreement since I was last here in Belfast - the Referendum, the elections and the introduction of devolved government. It is an immense tribute to the extraordinary efforts of the many people involved in keeping an inevitably difficult process on track. The economic prize of permanent peace and political stability is potentially very substantial. It will make Northern Ireland more attractive as a place in which to invest and in which to live and work; it will make it more attractive, too, as a place to visit. And devolved government will allow the fundamental supply-side issues, which are what determine the underlying sustainable growth rate of the economy, to be addressed within the local community. That process has already begun with the report last year of the Economic Development Strategy Review Steering Group - Strategy 2010. And, I agree with their conclusion - that if you play to your considerable strengths and tackle the structural weaknesses which they identify, then Northern Ireland can have a prosperous future. We all have a part to play in this. The Bank of England’s primary role is to help to maintain the stable macro-economic environment - in the interests of the UK economy as a whole but in the interests also of Northern Ireland. The specific purpose of my present visit is in fact to open, officially, our Northern Ireland Agency, which is a direct result of my earlier visit.

In many instances, depending on the particular international profile of the business, they are continuing to suffer, as a result of the global economic developments that I have already described. The resulting agony continues in many cases notwithstanding the present pick-up in world demand, and is particularly acute for those businesses and sectors most exposed to the continuing weakness of the euro. They no doubt include some of your own businesses. I realise that to say that I sympathise with those of you in this situation - and I really do sympathise with you - is scant consolation. But I want to assure you that we do not ignore the exchange rate in either our inflation forecasts or in our monetary policy judgements. The strong exchange rate in itself has both a direct dampening effect on our domestic price level and an indirect effect through lowering net external demand - and both of these effects we take into account as best we can. Absent those effects of the strong exchange rate - other things equal - policy would have needed to be correspondingly tighter. But while we do - and will continue to - try to make full allowance for the strength of the exchange rate there are limits to just how far we can sensibly go.
Global GDP growth has averaged between 3.0 and 3.5% – a sub-trend outcome that we have not been able to break out of since 2011. This is significantly lower than the average of 3.8% that we witnessed before the global financial crisis, between 1990 and 2007. There are some broad themes that have shaped economic outcomes during the last five years. In the advanced economies, there are accommodative monetary policies, fiscal consolidation, and deleveraging. In the emerging economies – a shift toward domestic demand, credit expansion, and a buildup in debt. In both advanced and emerging economies, we have seen slower growth in the key drivers of long-term prosperity – namely trade, investment, and productivity. Everywhere, the pace of structural reforms has been slow. Outlook for 2017 – renewed optimism, higher uncertainty What does 2017 hold for the global economy? Let us consider first what financial markets are saying. Since late last year, the markets have been pricing in higher growth, higher inflation, and higher interest rates. 1/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  Long-term bond yields have risen sharply in the advanced economies. Equity prices have surged. This reflation story has been particularly accentuated in US stock and fixed income markets. Reflecting this, the US Dollar has appreciated sharply, rising to its strongest level against the major currencies since 2003. The market narrative goes something like this: The new Administration in the US will inject a substantial fiscal stimulus – based on reduced corporate taxes and higher infrastructure spending.

5/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  Trade has been facing a combination of structural and cyclical headwinds since the global financial crisis: The global merchandise trade-to-income ratio has stagnated since 2010. China’s imports of intermediate goods is growing at below 10%, compared to more than 20% in the early 2000s, creating a drag along supply chains across Asia. This is partly cyclical, reflecting slower growth in China. But it is also structural – reflecting a reconfiguration of supply chains and China’s increasing insourcing of intermediate inputs. As if these cyclical and structural headwinds are not enough, we are now facing the uncertain prospect of policy measures against free trade, especially in the US. There is talk of: rejecting TPP and re-negotiating or even repealing NAFTA and other FTAs; imposing a border tax adjustment that would in effect impose the corporate tax rate on imports; and labelling major trade partners as currency manipulators and imposing hefty tariffs on them. Some of these actions may well attract retaliatory measures, leading to trade conflicts with disastrous consequences for the global economy. In all likelihood, it may not be that bad. The contours of the incoming US Administration’s trade policies are highly uncertain. There remains within various arms of the US establishment a strong belief in the benefits of an open global trading system and the risks of punitive trade restrictions. But there could be some limited anti-trade measures such as targeted tariffs on selected products or industries.
On one side of this line is the self-improving cycle of increased saving, investment and growth – the patience path. On the other is the self-destructive path of increased volatility and consumption – the impatient path. China today is an intriguing mix of the two paths. Patience is the dominant gene in the high savings rates of households and corporations. Yet the impatience gene is dominant in the behaviour of frothy equity and property markets. Finance in China is being buffeted by opposing winds – the mild east and the wild west. Dynastically, it is part Ming, part Yuan. China today is proof that financial innovation can be a double-edged sword. It is important to keep on the right side of that sword. That calls for careful sequencing of financial reform, in China and elsewhere. (b)  If excess volatility in market prices is a distortionary tax on long-duration investments, policy measures may be needed to offset this distortion. Pigou’s defective telescope may need to be repaired, perhaps reversed. One way of doing so is to provide incentives for longer-duration asset holdings. Another would be to introduce disincentive devices for short-termist behaviour: holding period-related levies on financial investments is one such example. 42 A third potential instrument is governance – for example, some have proposed that voting rights and the appointment of board members could be made conditional on the duration of equity holdings. 43  (c)  Impatient preferences can be constrained by pre-commitment devices – diets, exercise regimes, tattoos of your partner’s name.

The region as a whole is an active hive of experimentation in digital financial services, supported by favourable consumer demographics, particularly the digitally savvy youth. In Southeast Asia, digital financial services is estimated to contribute about 5% of the total revenue for the financial sector this year. This share is expected to more than double to 11% within the next five years, driven among others by digital lending, investment, remittance and insurance products. Here in Malaysia, the most recent demand side survey on financial capability and inclusion indicated that four in ten Malaysians utilise internet banking services, up from just one in ten as recently as three years before. This trend is expected to intensify, with the expansion in digital product offerings and growing acceptance of online financial services. 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Building trust and confidence Digitalisation can also be a powerful force for sustainable financial inclusion. By lowering costs and increasing scale and reach, it has become a means for providing access to essential financial services such as e-payments, micro-insurance and online remittance to previously underserved segments. Other innovations such as banking and insurance aggregators are also helping consumers make better financial decisions, in turn, increasing their confidence in using financial services.
Clarity and openness were guiding principles for the inflation-targeting regime right from the start, and I believe that this has played an important part in building up confidence in the inflation target. This culture has therefore continued to permeate the Riksbank’s activities. It is also important so that the Riksdag, which is our principal, can evaluate the Bank and require accountability from us. This motive became particularly important when the new wording of the Sveriges Riksbank Act gave the Riksbank an Executive Board with an independent position in 1999. Why 2 per cent? The new wording of the Sveriges Riksbank Act applying from 1999 changed the objective for the Riksbank’s activities to maintaining price stability. The previous Act contained a more general formulation that the Riksbank was responsible for “foreign exchange and credit policies”. When the new wording was produced, it was pointed out in the preliminary work that in principle the Act could be very detailed with regard to the target for inflation and so on. But the legislators judged that this type of precision would not be sufficiently flexible and allow the Riksbank enough scope to adjust the target to different circumstances. This raises the question of what price stability actually is and of whether 2 per cent inflation is the best target for the Riksbank. If one turns to academic literature on this subject, one will not find any clear answers. Everyone agrees that high inflation is detrimental to the economy.

Barbro Wickman-Parak: Inflation targeting and the financial crisis Speech by Ms Barbro Wickman-Parak, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at LO (the Swedish Trade Union Confederation), Stockholm, 9 January 2009. *  *  *  It is usual at the beginning of a new year to look back over the past year. If we look back at economic developments during 2008, it would be an understatement to say that it was an eventful year. First we had soaring oil and other commodity prices, combined with rising cost pressures and ever declining economic activity abroad. At this point concern was expressed in the international debate that the economies could suffer stagflation, that is, a combination of rising inflation and an economic downturn. The anxiety about stagflation soon faded. When the crisis in the financial markets suddenly intensified in the wake of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and economic activity deteriorated substantially in most parts of the world, a new theme for the debate arose; deflation. It is no surprise that situations like the present one cause people to wonder whether the monetary policy system is really strong enough to withstand these conditions, too. Let me first say that it is important to discuss this; new experiences and knowledge change the conditions for monetary policy. These things are not carved in stone!
We want to continue to work together with all of you here on this agenda. We look forward to hearing your ideas, suggestions and questions through the panel discussion coming up shortly, and in our networking session with our market intelligence teams later on today. We want to use 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  that as a starting point to build stronger links with a wider, more diverse group of colleagues, and also deepen those over time, as they progress through their careers. There is a very important further issue in all of this, which is sadly highly topical, namely to ask what is the antidote to the problem of lobbying? The answer is not to speak to no-one. That is not likely to lead to good decision making. The answer is to be rigorous about speaking to a diverse range of people to get their views. We look forward to engaging with you in the future, working together to understand financial market developments from a diverse and varied range of perspectives to inform our policy committee decisions. Thank you I am grateful to Christine Boykiw, Sumita Ghosh, Sam Juthani, Ankita Mehta and Arjun Popat for their assistance in helping me prepare these remarks.​ 1 See Carney (2017) – link in References section. Gender, ethnicity, age, disability, sexual orientation and  education are types of ‘identity’ diversity. ‘Cognitive’ diversity is about our perspectives and how we think about and solve problems.

Andrew Bailey: Meeting varied people Speech by Mr Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, at Diversity in Market Intelligence: Launching our Meeting Varied People Initiative, 21 April 2021. * * * Thank you Andrea for that introduction, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. People often talk about diversity in terms of the makeup of their own workforces – and for a public institution like the Bank, it is vital we reflect the whole society we serve. This includes both identity and cognitive diversity, which are equally important. 1 I often say I don’t want to work in a place that is full of people like me.2 I want the Bank to have an inclusive and open culture where people speak up, ensuring we make better decisions by mitigating the risks of groupthink and myopia. Over recent years, a number of my colleagues at the Bank have also emphasised the importance of diversity and inclusion, both for us as an employer, and as a wider public good for the financial sector. 3 We have made significant progress internally: for example, launched our Out & Proud Action Plan in September 2020, and continue to sponsor the ‘Women in Finance’ Charter. 4 But there is always more to be done, which is why for example we recently initiated a review, led by our Court of Directors, on ethnic diversity and inclusion. I know that many of you are doing similar work within your firms.
On this subject of the “Eckert Act", the insurance companies monitored by the ACPR paid out EUR 2 billion to the beneficiaries of unclaimed policies in 2015; banks, for their part, transferred 5.5 million inactive bank accounts to the Caisse des dépôts et consignations in 2016, representing a total amount of EUR 1.9 billion to be claimed by the account holders or their beneficiaries. The fourth challenge is the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism, which in 2016 was a higher priority for action. We carried out 30 missions among banks and insurance companies on this subject in 2016, as against 22 in 2015. These missions complement the substantive action of the ongoing supervision, which resulted last year in close to 700 follow-up letters. In total, we initiated and published six disciplinary sanctions against institutions. The year 2016 was therefore an active year in this field, raising to 22 the number of sanctions taken since 2010 for noncompliance with the regulations. * * * In conclusion, it is with pride that I look at what was achieved in 2016, but without any let-up or complacency: many projects await us in 2017, both nationally and internationally. A strong ACPR must have the necessary means to accomplish its missions: I would like to emphasise this imperative. I will now give the floor to Bernard Delas, who will present the prudential developments in the insurance sector. Rémi Bouchez will then discuss the work of the Sanctions Committee. Thank you for your attention.

François Villeroy de Galhau: Presentation of the 2016 Annual Report of the ACPR Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution (ACPR), at the press conference, Paris, 29 May 2017. * * * I am pleased to welcome you today for the presentation of the 7th activity report of the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (ACPR), with Bernard Delas, Vice-President of the ACPR, Rémi Bouchez, President of the Sanctions Committee, and Edouard Fernandez-Bollo, Secretary General of the ACPR. As you know, the ACPR and its 1,046 staff members have a broad field of action. The ACPR guarantees the stability of our financial system, through the supervision of banks and insurance companies, but it also guarantees the protection of French customers and savers. First of all, I would like to mention our essential involvement both at the European and the international level. I will then present the results of the main French banking and insurance groups, before addressing four major challenges that strongly shape the ACPR’s action: low interest rates, digital finance, customer protection, the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism. * * *  I. The ACPR’s action at the European and international level At the European level, the ACPR has taken an active part in furthering the deployment of the Banking Union.
Clearly, many people would now question the validity of this mindset. But have we learnt our lessons? Unfortunately, I’m not so sure we have. While most people would agree with the view that excessive debt and leveraging was a major factor leading to the crises in the US and Europe, many would still think it is possible to overcome the problems without having to deleverage or somehow avoid the pain arising from the deleveraging process. 8. On the subject of pain, most of us understand what happens when we live beyond our means through borrowings at the individual, household or corporate level. Without any increase in productivity or income, excessive levels of debt can lead to insolvency or bankruptcy, which entails very serious and unpleasant consequences. However, the situation is a lot less clear when it comes to a country incurring excessive debt because the usual bankruptcy rules do not apply. Indeed, when compared to households or corporates, there are two significant problems relating to governments spending beyond their means. First, there is the temptation for governments to continue to incur deficits as the market seems to be quite willing, at least for a while, to finance such deficits. In this context, Greece is a good recent example. Secondly, there is the usual political pressure for governments to spend and borrow now, and worry about repayment later.

However, when Chairman Bernanke talked about a possible timeline for tapering in May and June, the US and global asset markets reacted strongly with both bond and stock prices taking a beating. It is particularly noteworthy that Chairman Bernanke’s remarks triggered selling off in many emerging market economies, especially those with weak current account positions. As a result, it took the Chairman and his FOMC members considerable time and effort to clarify that tapering was not “tightening” and there was still a long way to go before US interest rates would rise. Lately, there has also been some rather strange market behaviour, with the markets going down when the economic or employment data showed some improvement, which in theory should have been good news; and markets rising when jobs or employment data showed signs of softening. This pattern is quite different to what conventional wisdom would suggest. It also highlights the uncertainty and risk that when asset markets have been supported by low interest rates and high liquidity for a prolonged period, the normalisation of the interest rate and liquidity conditions could create the kind of market dynamics that may destabilise the financial system and dislocate the recovery path of the real economy. 16. Nevertheless, we don’t know how long these perverse market dynamics will persist and how they may impact on the Fed’s exit. We certainly hope the world will benefit from an orderly exit from the QE and zero interest rate policies.
Expressed in USD, the average selling price was USD 351,40 per ounce, which was 17.2 USD higher than the average London fixing price between Mai 2000 and March 2005 (334,2 USD). The bulk of this excess  BIS Review 31/2005  3  performance (13.4 USD) resulted from the currency hedge of the expected USD proceeds (CHF 829mio). In the context of increasing gold prices, the profile of the yearly quotas, with their overweight at the end of period, contributed with 3.1 USD to the excess performance. The residual performance (0.7 USD) was related to the combined effects of the option programs, the spot sales and the sales through the BIS. SNB spot sales were realized at a price corresponding to the fixing plus 22 cents, whereas the average premium over the fixing for the cap sales was USD 1.9. IV. Lessons and conclusions  Last week, the SNB’s General Assembly approved the 2004 accounts of the SNB, thereby formalizing the disbursement of the CHF 21.1bn proceeds of the 1300 tonnes of gold. One third of that amount will go to the federal government and two thirds to the 26 cantons. Beginning on May 12, the SNB will disburse the money in ten weekly tranches. The disbursements will have no impact on the Swiss yield curve or the exchange rate as the necessary portfolio adjustments were made in the run up to the pay out.

Matters such as the privacy of personal information, security, the risk of cyberattacks or even the risk of exclusion, must 6/8  be monitored and, where appropriate, duly regulated. Regulation has to achieve a balance, protecting financial stability and confidence in the system, without unjustifiably hindering the exploitation of these technological innovations by industry and society in general. It is still too soon to gauge the impact of the technological revolution on the traditional banking sector. I believe that technological innovations will complement traditional banking activities, but to achieve this banks must be sufficiently flexible and dynamic to reap the benefits of technological innovation. There is no question that innovation is also favouring the proliferation of new fintech firms, of highly varying profiles and business models, which may conceivably compete with traditional banks in a specific part of the banking value chain, but are more likely to engage in new ancillary services. One example is joint financing through online platforms, known as “crowdfunding”. It is an alternative source of financing which may offer certain improvements over traditional banking in terms of convenience, speed and cost. But risks have also been identified, such as a potential increase in fraud or greater weaknesses in terms of investor confidence. There is a well-known case of a Swedish P2P platform which went bankrupt late last year after the detection of malpractices in credit extension, prompting a fall in the activity of the sector and closer regulatory attention.