samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This is particularly evident in foreign exchange and financial markets, where exchange and interest rates are influenced when participants shift large amounts partly on the basis of their expectations concerning economic policy and economic developments. The issues that receive attention, and that govern movements in exchange and interest rates, change. Financial and foreign exchange markets also have an inherent tendency to exaggerate - to be too optimistic or too pessimistic. When Norwegian households, perhaps with exuberant expectations of future income growth, encounter eager sales and marketing departments in banks, the result may easily be excessive borrowing. Equity markets have developed bubbles that burst. The exchange rate can be affected by short-term shifts in investments. At these times, it is important that the authorities conduct a policy that does not amplify this tendency, but rather tames the financial market. The authorities must not sow doubt; on the contrary, they must act in a long-term and predictable manner. The authorities must be credible and inspire confidence. There must be consistency between the stated objectives of economic policy and what is actually done to achieve them. This is the most important reason why the implementation of monetary policy is delegated to the central bank. In Norway, it was decided to delegate the responsibility for decisions to Norges Bank in 1986. In all the countries that normally figure in our comparisons, monetary policy has now been delegated to the central bank.

The Government has indicated in the National Budget that monetary policy should be the first to react when the outlook for the economy changes. A situation may nevertheless arise where an active use of fiscal policy is required, either because capacity utilisation is particularly low, or because pressures in the economy are very strong. Under certain conditions, the interplay between monetary and fiscal policy may fail to function. Interplay functions well when the decision-making bodies recognise that one body's decisions  4  BIS Review 65/2002  influence the decisions of the other. In the absence of such recognition, a decision will not produce the intended result. The economy might move in a highly unfavourable direction, with high interest rates, sluggish economic growth and a deterioration in the state’s financial position. The best contribution Norges Bank can make is to clarify our response pattern within the framework of our mandate. When the response pattern in monetary policy is known and remains unchanged over time, the social partners can also take any monetary policy response into account when wages are being determined. The outcome of this year’s wage settlements, which resulted in average wage growth between 5½ and 6 per cent, may indicate that there is not an adequate anchor for wage formation in Norway. Under the traditional wage formation model, manufacturing industry negotiated first. Wage growth in Norway was to be on a par with wage growth among our trading partners in order to maintain competitiveness.
As an illustration, investigations discovered that one “Senior Yen Trader” directly or indirectly made at least 800 requests in writing on UBS’s email and chat systems to their submitter.5 Requests often had a casual matter of fact nature to them. To illustrate, an exchange in September 2007 from a trader at UBS to the submitter went as follows.6 “Hi … could really do with a low 1M [one month] over the next few days as have 17.5m [million] fixings if ok with you?” Submitting banks often facilitated this type of behavior – in some cases derivatives traders and submitters sat on the same desk, while in others the submitters were themselves traders, both circumstances obviously representing conflicts of interest. Other investigations documented that traders at one bank would often shout across the trading desk to fellow traders to confirm that there were no conflicting requests before they sent their requests to their submitter.7 The investigations also found that not only were there conflicts within the submitting banks, but there were also active efforts by traders to collude across banks to affect the posted rates. At times, the traders at the different banks might have similar positions and therefore a common interest to push the posted rate in particular direction. In other times, cooperation could be incentivized through the use of “wash” trades that generated no profit or loss, but allowed the trader to generate commissions. Why did this go so wrong? As I discussed earlier, LIBOR setting involves a group of banks answering a hypothetical question.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Fifteen months of financial crisis – a status report Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Associazione Bancaria Ticinese, Centro di Studi Bancari, Vezia, 3 December 2008. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The financial crisis broke out a little over fifteen months ago. The magnitude of the turmoil experienced by the financial industry has been greater than all the forecasts. So far, our entire attention has been focused on the problems of the financial industry, while the real economy appeared to be passing through this difficult period without too many problems. We now realise that this view was deceptive: the situation in the non-financial sector is deteriorating substantially. This could lead to new challenges in 2009. After having benefitted extensively from the international expansion of the past few years, we are currently experiencing the consequences of a widespread recession. This situation is difficult for our country, but we may be better placed than others for coping with it. BIS Review 150/2008  1
Our own exchange rate against the euro today, for example, is stronger than it was before our reductions in interest rates this year; and the dollar, too, is substantially stronger against the euro than it was before the much larger cuts in US interest rates. So, in setting interest rates, we can – and do – make allowance in our projections for what has happened, and, on a best guess, for what is likely to happen, to the exchange rate, and that may cause the exchange rate to soften or it may cause domestic demand growth to strengthen, thereby offsetting the exchange rate's dampening effect on the economy. But what we cannot do – any more than the ECB – is to target the exchange rate, without putting the stability of the economy as a whole at risk of re-emerging inflation. That would not be in the interests even of the internationally-exposed sectors of the economy except possibly in the short term. They operate in the same labour market as more domestically-oriented businesses; and what matters to them is the real, rather than the nominal exchange rate, and it is not at all clear how that would be affected. Mr Chairman, given the uncertainties, I am reluctant to speculate as to how, precisely, the present imbalances within and between the major industrial economies will work themselves out, as they necessarily will over time.

When the couple passes away, and if their children choose not to redeem the property, the bank will recover the outstanding loan with accrued interests by selling the property in the open market. Any surplus will be returned to the children of the borrowers or their designated estate. If there is any shortfall, the HKMC will take care of the difference because the borrowers, when taking out the Reverse Mortgage, have already bought insurance from the HKMC to cover the shortfall risk. This scheme would not have been commercially viable for the banks without the insurance provided by the HKMC to cover the potential shortfall risk due to either falling property prices, rising interest rates or increasing longevity of the borrowers. So far, over 2,500 households have joined the Reverse Mortgage Programme. The initial take-up rate was not fast but is picking up steadily. It has taken some time for Hong Kong people to get to understand and appreciate this new product. Also, it is quite common amongst Chinese parents wishing to pass their properties to their children without encumbrances, which will not be the case if they have joined the Reverse Mortgage Programme. However, there is increasing awareness amongst retirees that they do need to take care of themselves rather than suffering from a steady drop in living standards due to insufficient recurrent cash flows. Life Annuity Scheme 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  6.
Mokyr, J (2011), The Enlightened Economy: Britain and the Industrial Revolution, 1700-1850, Penguin. North, D (1990), Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, Cambridge University Press. North, D (1991), ‘Institutions’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 97-112. Pinker, S (2018), Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, Allen Lane. Romer, P (1990), ‘Endogenous Technological Change’, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, No. 5, Part 2, pp. S71-S102. Productivity Leadership Growth (2017), ‘How good is your business really? Raising our ambitions for business performance’, available at bethebusiness.com Rachel, L and Smith, T (2015), ‘Secular drivers of the global real interest rate’, Bank of England Staff Working Paper, No. 571. Rosling, H (2018), Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World and Why Things Are Better Than You Think, Sceptre. Schneider, P (2018), ‘The UK’s productivity puzzle is in the top tail of the distribution’, Bank Underground. 25  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  25  Schumpeter, J (1942), Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Harper & Brothers. Schwab, K (2017), The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Portfolio Penguin. Solow, R (1956), ‘A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 65-94. Standing, G (2017), Basic Income: And How We Can Make It Happen, Pelican. Stiglitz, J, Sen, A and Fitoussi, J-P (2009), Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress. Smith, A (1776), The Wealth of Nations, W. Strahan and T. Cadell.

35  Beyond age 18, there was in parallel a rise in both numbers and attendance at universities. For over six hundred years from 1209, England had only two universities – this one (Oxford) and the other one (Cambridge). It was not until the formation of University College London in 1829 that their duopoly was th  broken. And it was not until the 20 century that some of the other main cities – Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Bristol, Birmingham and Sheffield – established their own universities. 36  Today, there are around 130  universities in the UK as a whole. Participation rates in higher education have also undergone a secular rise and, latterly, a revolution. The share of young people attending university has increased from just over 3% in 1950 to over 8% in 1970, over 19% in 1990, 33% in 2000 and 49% by 2016. 37  Having been less than 5,000 in 1920, the number of first  degrees obtained at UK universities had increased to over 365,000 by 2016. 38  Through the rapid rise in school and university attendance, there was a revolution in cognitive skills in the workforce. That provided the human capital necessary to turn new technologies and machines into higher levels of productivity among companies, higher wages among workers and, ultimately, higher living standards among societies. Put differently, higher cognitive skills reduced the odds of a lengthy recessionary period of technological unemployment for many individuals and societies.
By contrast, the emerging economies presented a mixed picture. Some countries registered a decline in growth, and uncertainty regarding economic developments in China has increased. Consequently, growth was not broad-based internationally, which was also reflected in the lack of momentum in global trade (cf. chart 2). We nevertheless expect the moderate pace of global economic recovery to continue. Expansionary monetary policy and low commodity prices are supporting economic activity in the advanced economies. This is a positive development for the outlook in Switzerland. If global economic growth continues at the same moderate pace, this will help mitigate the negative effects of the strong Swiss franc. Export activity should thus become a growth driver again. Domestic demand will also support the economy. For these reasons, we anticipate that economic conditions will improve somewhat in the second half of the year. However, uncertainty remains high. For 2015 we expect real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by just under 1%. The difference is in the differential Let us now turn to the interest rate environment. Did our decision of 15 January cause a fundamental shift in parameters in this area? No. I am, of course, aware that, since the introduction of negative interest on banks’ and other financial market participants’ sight deposits at the SNB, many money and capital market interest rates start with a minus sign rather than a plus. For instance, yields on Confederation bonds with terms of up to ten years are currently negative. So, mathematically speaking, the parameters have indeed shifted.

Nevertheless, these strong links could import credibility into these countries, so long as they pursue appropriate policies at the same time. Conclusion •  In contrast to the domestic role of a currency, which is strongly determined by institutions, the international role of a currency is market driven. This explains why the different uses of money proceed at different speeds. •  The fact that many countries outside the euro area have rapidly decided to link their exchange rate regimes to the euro illustrates the fact that they consider the euro to be an international factor of stability due to the stabilizing role it has played and still plays in the euro area.
Instead, risk management is the art of distinguishing the risks you accept from the risks you deem unacceptable, and deciding how best to avoid, reduce, or eliminate those risks. Prudent risk management also includes plans for recovering from risks that materialize. Your characterization and assessment of risk—acceptable or unacceptable, large or small—and your strategy for dealing with risk will depend on your broader purpose and goals. This is what is called a “risk appetite.” How much risk is, for you, too much risk? Or, perhaps more important, what type of risks should you avoid? In this talk, I will share my own experience in helping to manage risks at the New York Fed. I will also offer some thoughts on the role lawyers should play in any financial institution’s risk management. I will focus on lawyers for two reasons—it’s what I know, and it’s what many of you are studying at the University of International Business and Economics. First, though, a caveat: I understand that the issues surrounding risk management in the financial system are of great interest in China today as well as in the United States. But I am not an expert on Chinese law, culture, or history. My experiences may not fully resemble your own, and the lessons I share today may have only partial relevance to your lives and careers. At the very least, I hope there may be value in learning about someone else’s experience and perspective.

Similar to the American Depository Receipts or Global Depository Receipts offered in many other American or European exchanges, the Global Depository Receipts to be offered by SGX will allow foreign companies greater exposure in the Singapore market and provide them with a wider international shareholder base. It will help to boost the company's prestige in its local market, in being traded internationally, while also encouraging greater liquidity for the company's shares. We believe that this new product will provide investment bankers in Singapore with a wider range of solutions when advising companies keen on tapping Singapore's capital markets for fund raising. MAS is also considering how best we can treat corporate bonds as regulatory liquid assets of banks. This is in response to market feedback from SIBA, and is expected to increase demand from banks in Singapore for corporate bonds. This will eventually attract more corporate debt issuance in Singapore and further the development of our debt markets. MAS will be consulting the industry on this initiative in due course. To help generate further buzz in the Singapore market, SIBA can make use of its extensive network of experts to organize seminars and conferences to bring investors, bankers and other market practitioners to discuss new areas of interest and to gain wider understanding of the developments in the Singapore capital markets. SIBA and its members can also help to identify investment instruments that will better service clients' needs, and facilitate the development of such instruments in Singapore.
When a longer period is used for the comparison (e.g. the last ten or fifteen years) the conclusions are the same. In this context, some economies have implemented foreign exchange measures, including interventions to mitigate the appreciation of their currencies. While these actions may be desirable in certain situations – Chile has actually used them in the past and they are part of its policy toolkit – implementing them requires a careful evaluation of both the benefits and costs to the country. These measures are appropriate to correct an over-reaction in the value of the currency against its medium- and long-term fundamentals or as a way to build an international reserve position, providing greater safety in the event of a sharp contraction of external financing. These benefits are difficult to quantify objectively, but it is reasonable to think that the lower the availability of reserves or the further away the real exchange rate is from its long-term trend, the greater the benefits. At the same time, we must always bear the costs associated with these interventions in mind. First, there is the direct financial cost, because the reserves are invested in highly liquid and safe instruments, but whose interest rates are lower than that of the local instruments financing their acquisition. This generates a significant cost that eats into the  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Central Bank’s net worth. Moreover, it is important to preserve the flexibility of the exchange rate in the Chilean economy because it facilitates accommodating external shocks.

Importantly, unlike  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  previous cycles, this time consumer loans have not been an important catalyst for personal spending, since such loans have been growing at a slower pace. This is important information, because it reduces the probabilities of a strong deceleration or contraction in the near future due to households’ need to reduce their debt, a factor that has been behind the weakness of developed economies for years already (figure 2). The dynamism of domestic demand has manifested in increased imports, so its impact on the use of internal resources and inflation has been limited. The fastest-growing components of expenditure, namely investment in machinery & equipment and durable consumption, have been favored by the drop in relative import prices. The deficit of the current account of the balance of payments moved from 1.3% of GDP in 2011 to 3.5% in 2012, slightly less than projected last December. As has been noted before, the bigger deficit is a matter of concern, but its risks are mitigated by the greater investment flows to the tradable sector – related to major mining projects – as well as by the weight of FDI flows in its funding. Portfolio inflows and debt levels have remained at similar levels than previous years. Inflation has continued to follow a downward trend. In February, the annual change in CPI stood at 1.3% and core inflation – in its CPIEFE measure, which excludes food and energy – reached 0.8% annually (figure 3).
5  The current account mainly consists of the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. Net capital income and various charges paid to and received from abroad are also included, but these components usually account for a much smaller part of the total than net exports. 6  For a more detailed discussion, see Lane, 2010. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 1 Current accounts, private net capital and GDP in eastern and central Europe Percentage of GDP and annual percentage change 15  15 GDP Current account Private capital  10  10  5  5  0  0  -5  -5  -10  -10 80  82  84  86  89  91  93  95  97  99  01  04  06  08  10  Note. Private capital is made up of direct private investment (net), private portfolio flows (net) and other private capital (net flows), expressed here as a share of GDP. Source: The IMF  Global imbalances have increased since the deregulation of the capital markets at the end of the 1980s. One of the reasons for this is that countries with surpluses, such as China, have grown more rapidly than other countries. The higher rate of growth means that China’s savings surplus (the difference between saving and investment) has increased as a percentage of global GDP.

The current account on the other hand, which constitutes a flow that adds to or subtracts from these stocks, is less important. 22 Changes in the valuation of the assets and liabilities are affected to a great extent by changes in the exchange rate. 23 There are, however, considerable shortcomings in the statistics in this area. The values of some types of asset are definitely underestimated, as there is a lack of statistics on the Swedish households’ direct investments abroad. The net position can also be measured in different ways depending on whether direct investments are accounted at market value or at book or nominal value. However, both methods give a net position that is much lower than that given by the accumulated current account surplus (see Figure 8). 21  The nominal external position was –22 per cent of GDP in 2010, while the market-value net position was +4 per cent of GDP according to statistics from Statistics Sweden. 22  This is also found by Lane (2006) in an analysis of the Swedish exchange rate. 23  For a more detailed analysis of the external position see Blomberg and Falk, 2006.