samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the particular case of the EU, and with a view to at least partially offsetting the costs of deglobalisation and to ensure a more robust and resilient EU economy, in my view strategic autonomy policies should be accompanied by a substantial deepening of EU integration, particularly in those areas where integration is less advanced. In this regard, structural policies are needed at EU level to promote the integration and interconnection of EU markets - particularly energy markets - and to strengthen the single market, which will not only make it more resilient to shocks but will also increase competitiveness. Not only in the energy market, but also by promoting a genuine single market for services. Moreover, joint financing mechanisms must be put in place to safeguard this common effort without weighing too heavily or too unevenly on national public finances. Joint financing arrangements would enable EU institutions to finance large-scale programmes subject to a common quality standard and to evaluate their compliance in a homogeneous manner. Finally, it is essential to make progress in extending risk-sharing mechanisms - public and private - in the EU. This should be done in three ways. First, the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) needs to equip itself with a permanent macroeconomic stabilisation capacity. Second, it is essential that the Banking Union be completed with the construction of an EU deposit guarantee system.

Those completed included: Data Management Group - a centralisation of data collection that were originally performed by many departments within the Bank; introduction of the use of information technology for the dissemination of information for public use through the Bank of Thailand's web site; Financial  4  BIS Review 6/2001  Markets Operations Group - to develop working efficiency by increasing skills in risk management and the modernisation of the trading room; another group which has been completed under the programme was the Supervision Group. On personnel development, most of the Bank of Thailand's staff lacked systematic development. In the past year, therefore, heavy investment was put on staff training by doubling the budget for this purpose. Moreover, staffs with high potential were assigned job training in outstanding private sector companies in order to increase their vision and experience and to understand how the private sector works. A job evaluation system has been applied to each position in order to put the right man on the right job. Most importantly, we have introduced performance evaluation and individual development plans in accordance with international standards. Next year, the Bank of Thailand will start a new salary structure to be consistent with job evaluation, and to set out a clear work target and plan for each group. The most important change that occurs has been the improvement in the decision- making process. Today, all Bank of Thailand policies have been made on the basis of sound principles and reasoning that can be explained clearly to the public.
Two questions in particular tend to arise: Do we only take into account inflation, or do we also care about the real economy, for instance, the employment situation? And what do we think of the rapid increase in household indebtedness and in property prices? The aims of monetary policy To understand the monetary policy decisions, it is of course essential that there is no uncertainty regarding the objective of monetary policy. There is only one statutory objective for monetary policy and that is to maintain price stability. We at the Riksbank have then chosen to specify this objective in terms of an explicit inflation target. This entails an annual change in the consumer price index (CPI) of 2 per cent with a tolerance interval of ± 1 percentage point. One might ask why we allow a certain measure of inflation when Parliament has given us the task of maintaining price stability. One reason why we have chosen not to set the inflation target at zero is that an inflation target that is too low can under certain circumstances create adverse conditions for employment. There is an inbuilt resistance within the economy to nominal reductions in prices and  1  See “Monetary policy in Sweden", Sveriges Riksbank (this document can be downloaded from the Riksbank’s website, www.riksbank.com, or ordered as a booklet). BIS Review 84/2006  1  wages and a certain measure of inflation can therefore make it easier to implement necessary changes in relative prices and wages.

One reason was that the assumption of a constant repo rate often resulted in our forecasts for inflation differing from those of other forecasters; being higher when inflation was rising and lower when inflation was declining. This caused confusion in the discussions on monetary policy. Since October last year, our forecasts are instead based on the technical assumption that the repo rate will develop in line with market expectations regarding the future repo rate, as expressed in the implied forward rates. This has made it easier to compare ourselves with other inflation forecasters and also to assess our monetary policy. 2 The new interest rate assumption we now apply means that we can no longer use our old policy rule. If the forecast with a constant repo rate was close to two per cent, the repo rate would be held unchanged according to the old policy rule. If the forecast according to the new outlook shows inflation close to two per cent, the repo rate will normally develop in the way reflected by market expectations. This could mean that the repo rate, given the underlying inflation forecast, should be raised or lowered in a number of stages over the coming two-year period. The new outlook thus means that the monetary policy discussion is based on an interest rate path throughout the entire forecast period, while the old policy rule only took into account what should be done at the time the decision was made.
Retain flexibility  Of course one can never know exactly what the future holds. So when the time does come to raise Bank Rate, it will be important to retain the flexibility to change course if needs be, either by tightening policy more quickly than originally envisaged or by being prepared to loosen again. Were it required to respond to unforeseen events, the MPC would have two tools at its immediate disposal: Bank Rate and QE. Past experience gives us a good dataset from which to gain an understanding of how changes in policy rates transmit to the economy. Based on a rich literature of international estimates over the period since inflation targeting began, the peak impact on inflation is generally estimated to occur with a lag of between 18 and 24 months, although it begins to  5  See Shafik (2015) and Broadbent (2015) for more on this issue. 6  Though should proposed legislation pass, the number of MPC meetings per year will reduce from 12 to 8, in line with the recommendations of the Warsh Review (Warsh, 2014)  7  The market curve represents the mean of the priced distribution of interest rates. Consideration of risks can cause this whole distribution to move relative to true expectations. Risks can also affect the shape of the distribution, though Dison and Elliot (2015) found that the shape of the distribution is currently being heavily influenced by the proximity of Bank Rate to the effective lower bound.

For a beneficiary who has an account within the same bank with the payer, which is known as Intrabank, the funds will be credited instantaneously. The program for today includes the showing of three video clips on online banking and IBG, which can be downloaded through YouTube and ABM and AIBIM’s website, including presentations by two banks. In addition, 17 banks and MyClear (the national payment system operator) have also set up exhibition booths to showcase their respective electronic payments and funds transfer solutions. This is indeed an opportunity not to be missed as you will be able to learn and ask questions about online banking solutions and sign up for the special offers such as free security tokens or waiver of monthly subscription fee for business Internet banking as provided by some of the exhibitors today. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  In conjunction with today’s roadshow, I am pleased to announce that 2 banks namely, Bank Simpanan Nasional and OCBC Bank, together with 8 banks in Temerloh1 in Kuantan will hold their “Open Day” from today, 2 December until this Friday, 6 December. During the weeklong “Open Day”, visitors can enquire and learn more about e-payment solutions from the branch staff. The “Open Day” event is open to all businesses and the general public to complement the efforts of the roadshow to reach out to smaller towns and I encourage all participants to take this opportunity to visit the bank branches in Kuantan and Temerloh.
Much of the adjustment in real terms is still to come, and there is still some way to go before we will be able to say that the global economy is on safe ground. The full consequences of inadequate regulation of financial institutions became visible only after the crisis was a fact. However, macroeconomic imbalances were widely recognised beforehand. In the mid-2000s, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan raised the key rate to reduce the US savings deficit. But long-term interest rates were kept low by the Asian savings surplus that found its haven in the US. International organisations such as the IMF and the OECD pointed out what needed to be done, but the solution required measures to be implemented by a number of countries with differing interests and finding a good solution for the global community proved to be too difficult.23 The global community is nonetheless sometimes able to make decisions that benefit all countries. I witnessed this myself in Washington at the IMF’s meeting in October 2008 following the Lehman Brothers collapse. The alternative then was a black hole. In that kind of situation, it is easier to reach agreement. Commission the role of monitoring member states’ implementation of their own plans. Other countries, such as Denmark and Sweden, have fiscal policy boards, but in many cases they have taken on duties beyond those strictly related to remedying the time inconsistency problem. They also comment on how fiscal policy ought to be formulated.

Allow me to venture to select three lessons on the basis of what I have said so far. First: the simplest solution is often the best. Simple rules, whether for fiscal policy or banking regulation, will often prevent the worst errors. And when the yellow warning light starts flashing, action must be taken. Second: confidence is essential, also for economic policy. Confidence is easily eroded and difficult – and costly – to restore. Confidence must be earned. The resolution of today’s crisis will also follow a smoother path if there is confidence in institutions – banks, central banks and governments. Borrowing costs will then decrease more quickly, the need for government cuts will diminish accordingly, and the good times will return sooner. Third: we have no magic wand. If a country has real economic problems, real adjustments must be made to solve them.25 Central banks cannot solve the problems, but what they can do is lend money when there is none available elsewhere, giving countries more time to implement necessary reforms. Deficits must be reduced. Unrestrained printing of money has led to problems on many occasions through history. If printing money is not followed up by action – in euro area countries, in the UK and in the US – Mario Draghi, Mervyn King and Ben Bernanke run the risk of being recorded in history in the same chapter as the Scotsman John Law. The full title of my speech today is “Learning from history: truths and eternal truths”.
The share of the external debt in GDP accounts for 42.0%, which ranks the Republic of Macedonia in the countries with moderate to medium degree of indebtedness. Sound and stable banking system in the Republic of Macedonia In 2000, the banking sector of the Republic of Macedonia continued to recover from the adverse effects caused by the external shock in 1999. The share of high-risk credits in the total credit exposure of the banks in the first nine months of 2000 reduced by 4.1 percentage points, however, still remaining high at the level of 37.3%. Nevertheless, the high average capital adequacy ratio of 33.8% at the end of September 2000, positively affects the banking system stability, by far exceeding the required minimum of 8%. Significant investments of foreign capital in the Macedonian banks was registered in the first six months of 2000, increasing the share of the foreign capital in the total banking capital from 19% to 33.3%. In 2000, the legal framework regulating the banks’ operations was subject to fundamental improvement. In that context, the newly adopted Banking Law in July 2000 is of great importance, in which preparation the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia had a considerable contribution. This Law represents a step towards the harmonization with the European legislative and the European Union Directives and achieves greater degree of compliance with the so-called Core Basle Principles for Effective Banking Supervision. In November 2000, certain changes were made in the regulation on banks’ foreign exchange operations, as well.

By mandating more OTC derivatives to be centrally cleared on CCPs (Central Counterparties), market participants benefit from netting of exposures and reduction of credit risks, ultimately reducing systemic risks. However, without ensuring sufficient access to CCPs before implementing such a mandate, some market participants may find themselves scrambling to sign up with the fewer clearing members who have access to the CCPs. Some may even find the new economics of clearing prohibitive. Such factors should therefore be carefully considered so that in the desire to address possible vulnerabilities, and to cover all bases, perfection does not become the enemy of the good. 11. I have mentioned the important work around coherence. Taken individually, each set of reforms have been well-considered and for good reasons. For instance, the banking capital and liquidity reforms strengthen the ability of banks to better withstand future shocks; OTC derivative reforms seek to improve transparency, prevent market abuse and reduce systemic risks. The two sets of reforms aimed at achieving a safer financial system, albeit from different angles. However, to ensure that they complement each other without creating unintended consequences, we also need to carefully examine how the different elements will interact. 12. Take the example of the impact from the leverage ratio on the capacity of clearing members to offer client clearing services. The leverage ratio is intended to be a non-risk-based backstop to supplement the capital reforms and does not factor in risk offsets.
A number of countries had to abandon a fixed exchange rate. The exchange rate target in Norway became more flexible. Monetary policy was oriented towards maintaining a stable exchange rate in relation to European currencies, without defining a central exchange rate with fluctuation margins. At the same time, fiscal policy was to stabilise the domestic economy. With rising petroleum revenues, it proved demanding to use the government budget to curb growth in domestic demand and costs. The krone exchange rate began to fluctuate increasingly from 1997, and interest rate setting had to increasingly be oriented towards maintaining low and stable inflation. 1  See Qvigstad, Jan (2005), “500 års prishistorie – Prisstabilitet er det normale. Hva kjennetegner det unormale?” (500 years of inflation history - Price stability is the norm. What distinguishes the abnormal?) Lecture at Norges Bank’s conference on Historical monetary statistics for Norway, Bogstad Gård, 7 June. BIS Review 43/2005  1  Through the 1990s, inflation targeting had emerged as an attractive alternative. This monetary policy regime was based on experiences from the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. One important lesson was that it was not possible to reduce unemployment in the medium and long term by merely accepting somewhat higher inflation. Faced with the question of whether an increase in inflation from say 10 to 12 per cent was acceptable if stimulating the economy could at the same time reduce unemployment from say 2 to 1½ per cent, the decision-making authorities would most likely have been inclined to answer yes.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  same subject, we should welcome the changes made to EU and global banking regulations and supervision, both micro and macro-based: for example, the Basel III package of regulations (level and quality of capital, countercyclical buffers of capital, liquidity ratio. etc) and the developments in macroprudential supervision with the establishment of the ESRB in the EU. Concluding remarks Changes in the banking sector after the current crisis – at national, EU and global level – can make the Spanish banking sector stronger and provide a durable support for the real economy, as happened after the 1970–80 crisis. To be specific, changes in the business models and the restructuring of some banks, more and higher-quality bank capital, better risk management, improved transparency and corporate governance, as well as changes in banking regulations and supervision – all these factors will contribute towards sustainable economic growth. However, as necessary as these changes are, they are not enough to bring about a strong and robust improvement in Spain’s economy, and particularly to create jobs and boost productivity. To achieve these objectives, further progress must be made:   in consolidating public finances, also to reduce the possible negative spillovers of the sovereign debt crisis to the banking sector;    in liberalising product and factor markets, especially now the labour market with respect to “negociación colectiva” (collective bargaining).
4  BIS Review 23/2003  However, this does not mean that developments in financial markets, and especially asset price bubbles, are not important for central bank behaviour. On the contrary, we clearly need to monitor movements in asset prices, as they reflect expectations about future economic developments and are important for the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Furthermore, central banks should always be aware of strong movements in asset prices because of their possible repercussions for financial stability. In this sense, asset price developments play a role in our monetary policy decisions to the extent that they reveal relevant information for the state of the economy and the outlook for price stability. In this respect, our monetary policy strategy, which gives money and credit a very prominent indicator role, is a great aid. Economic history has shown that in many instances strong money and credit growth has accompanied financial bubbles, whose subsequent bursting then endangered financial stability. To summarise, the best contribution a central bank can make to prevent financial bubbles from forming and bursting is to continue pursuing a monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability, thereby contributing to a stable macro-economic environment. Conclusions I would now like to conclude. The famous English economist and essayist Walter Bagehot once said that “No real English gentleman, in his secret soul, was ever sorry for the death of a political 9 economist”.

WSJ: When you spoke of a quantum leap last year, you referred to quasi-automatic sanctions on excessive deficits. Governments so far haven’t come along. What makes you optimistic that you can still get your point of view adopted by governments? TRICHET: There are a number of elements that are important: the reinforcement of sanctions; the reinforcement of the independent diagnosis that would be made by Commission. It’s a set of quantum leaps, including the quasi-automaticity of the start of the corrective procedures and of the sanctions, which in our view is extremely important. Governance is now discussed by the European Council and the European Parliament. The Parliament has in the past always demonstrated a remarkable capacity to capture what is essential for Europe. So, the involvement of the Parliament is very important. WSJ: Last year, governments made a watery compromise on sanctions, weaker than the European Commission’s proposals. Should governments rethink that compromise? TRICHET: Even the initial proposals from the Commission seemed to us too timid. Our position has not changed. WSJ: You have called for maximum flexibility for the European Financial Stability Facility. There is discussion whether EFSF should take over all or part of the bond buying program from the ECB. If that were to happen, would you be relieved? 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  TRICHET: As I said, they have to improve the stabilization fund in both quality and quantity. By quality I mean having a tool that is as flexible as possible.
It has a history stretching back at least a century. The fortunes of this debate have been shaped importantly by financial crises. Indeed, a clear historical pattern has emerged: fair value accounting principles have waxed when asset prices and banks are rising and waned when both are falling.2 Consider experience in the United States either side of the Great Depression. Fair value principles were rolled-out progressively during the early part of the 20th century. This move was led by the banks who held marketable securities as assets. As these securities rose in value ahead of the Great Crash, marking them to market allowed profits to be booked. Rising asset prices and bank profits went hand in hand, with fair values playing the role of matchmaker. That was one reason why the “roaring ‘20s” roared. The stock market crash of 1929 put paid to this happy marriage. Falling asset prices, marked to market, crushed bank profits and balance sheets. In the United States, around 10,000 banks went bust between 1929 and 1938. Fair values were now seen as more troublemaker than matchmaker. Pressures to suspend fair values, from banks, regulators and politicians, began to mount. By 1938, after an initial recovery from the Great Crash, the United States was bracing itself for a double-dip recession. In response, under pressure from the Federal Reserve, President Roosevelt suspended fair valuation of investment bank assets.

In response, and echoing Roosevelt in 1938, President Bush granted the SEC authority to suspend fair value rules. Although this authority was not invoked, it demonstrated a willingness to provide system-wide forbearance through fair value accounting rules. Today, the self-same cycle is in motion. During the long pre-crisis boom, fair value principles gained ground, in particular in the valuation of debt, equity and derivatives: in the US, through Statement of Financial Accounting Standard 157 (SFAS 157); internationally, through International Accounting Standard 39 (IAS 39). As in the roaring ‘20s, rising asset prices, marked to market, inflated bank profits and balance sheets. Between 2000 and 2007, major international banks recorded accumulated gains in their trading book totalling over £ billion. But as the crisis tide has turned, with falling asset prices and failing banks, so too has the fair value debate. In 2008, under intense pressure from an ailing banking community, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) eased back on fair value accounting rules. For example, banks were allowed to switch financial instruments from trading to holding to avoid mark-to market requirements. So, historically, fair value accounting principles have gained ground when the going has been good, and lost it when it has got tough. From a financial stability perspective, this is a cause for concern. To see why, consider how banks’ balance sheets then appear to investors. During the asset upswing, fair value gains ground. Mark-to-market gains are booked as profits.