samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This year's conference will feature a very important topic, given the current economic context marked by a sharp increase in energy prices and the uncertainty regarding the war in Ukraine and the related sanctions. As a sad digression, I recall that last year's NBR-EIB conference was on the Eve of the war, on February 23rd. Coming back to the effects that can already be seen in the households' and investors' confidence, there is a deterioration of the economic climate expectations, there are pressures in the economies of our major trading partners and the risk perception towards economies in the region, with impact on the financing costs. 1/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  As we know, this event centers on the EIB's Investment Survey, an excellent country analysis conducted by the Bank. The conclusions of this survey are relevant for both companies and authorities, including the National Bank of Romania, as they capture appropriately the opinions of the real sector on some key issues, such as: (i) the most pressing problems that firms are facing in their activity; (ii) the investment needs and priorities; (iii) challenges raised by climate change and energy efficiency. The survey shows that firms in Romania have become less optimistic regarding investment conditions for the year ahead. While this is a worrying trend, we are rather positive that Romania will be able to overcome the main problem identified, the energy costs, in the near future.

However, the next monetary policy step depends, as always, on what happens and the analyses we make. There is always uncertainty and we have now tightened up monetary policy by 0.5 percentage points.
Thailand is transitioning to a new era of digital payment system and financial technology in which the Bank of Thailand is fully committed to foster. First and foremost, electronic payment infrastructures must be put in place to realize the full potential of digital economy. Under the National e-Payment Masterplan, last year the Bank of Thailand together with the Ministry of Finance and 6/10  the Thai Bankers’ Association launched our new faster payment system – PromptPay – which propelled the wider adoption of e-payment in Thailand. PromptPay is an instant payment platform that links bank accounts to various forms of identification including national ID numbers and mobile phone numbers. With PromptPay, funds can be transferred to a recipient’s preferred bank account in real time and at virtually no cost. This new technology has significantly boosted the usage of mobile banking, and has potential to lead to significant growth in e-commerce in Thailand as well as to radically change the way government welfare payments are distributed. In just over a year since the launch of PromptPay, there are over 40 million IDs registered on the platform and more than 2.7 million transactions a day. The increasing usage of PromptPay also served as a catalyst that eventually led to the announcements of most commercial banks two months ago, to eliminate transfer fees for all transfers through mobile and online banking. All in all, PromptPay provides a crucial payment infrastructure which opens the door to many other digital payment services.

The robust recovery momentum on the global scale has resulted in a strong expansion of Thai exports across product categories and export destinations. In addition, the Thai tourism sector has grown consistently with steady increases in the number and quality of tourists. Therefore, it is not surprising to see businesses associated with exports of goods and services enjoying the benefits from the improved external demand. Domestic demand growth, however, is still proceeding at a gradual pace. Despite a continuous recovery, private consumption growth remains well below that of GDP, registering within the 3 percent range. And until recently, private investment growth had concentrated mainly in the export sector. Overall, the large current account surplus of 10.5 percent to GDP last year summarizes the pattern of economic recovery and reflects the imbalance between the external and domestic demand. Second, the rural economy has been exposed to more adverse shocks than its urban counterpart. Specifically, several populist measures including the controversial rice pledging scheme were withdrawn, together with adverse weather conditions such as severe droughts in 2016 and floods in 2017 as well as declines in global prices of key export crops especially rubber and rice, all constituted negative income shocks to farmers. In addition, rural entrepreneurs, which are mostly SMEs, tend to be less 2/10  productive and might not be able to compete with larger firms who are better equipped with capital and technologies.
Luis M Linde: Exiting the economic crisis Speech by Mr Luis M Linde, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at a conference at the Colegio de Ingenieros de Caminos, Canales y Puertos, (School of Civil Engineers), Madrid, 18 February 2014. *  *  *  Let me first thank the School of Civil Engineers, their Governing Board and its President for inviting me to participate in this conference. Civil engineers are one of the most prestigious professional groups in our country, and their contribution over many years to the development of our economy and society has been most important. Currently, they are moreover participating decisively in the expansion abroad of our construction and engineering companies, raising them to the ranks of the international first division. In my address today I shall discuss our view at the Banco de España of recent developments in the Spanish economy and the prospects open to us to emerge from the crisis that began seven years back. I shall begin by recalling the severity of this crisis, moving next to discussing the discernible signs of recovery. Finally, I shall refer to the complexity of the current situation and the challenges ahead for us. The crisis has been of a depth and seriousness unprecedented in our economic history.

For example, I refer to matters related to data portability and the removal of potential impediments to banks and their customers accessing the information provided to or generated on digital platforms. The report describes how FinTech’s relationship with banks has evolved over time. Thus, they appear to have shifted from outright competing and defensive positions to others 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  more conducive to collaboration through various channels, albeit without putting competition entirely to one side. Therefore, according to the report a “competitive collaboration” framework, from which both sides gain, seems to have emerged. FinTech firms tend to be characterised, in both the report and public opinion, as small, agile and adaptable firms. Therefore, the idea of allegiances with banks is presented as “synergistic”. Thus, FinTech firms would gain access to a much broader customer base and provide in exchange innovative technology solutions. This image of FinTech is mostly correct, in particular if we look at the situation in Spain and the collaboration frameworks observed to date. However, recent crises involving specialist digital payment and factoring companies serve as a counterpoint to this image. Indeed, their corporate structures featured tail credit institutions. Naturally, banks have been impacted by the crisis. This shows that sometimes the bank, rather than FinTech, is the small fish. FinTech firms are fast-growing, high-tech groups that have a theoretically simple business model, but one shrouded in layers of operational and technological complexity, an opaque and complex corporate structure spread across several jurisdictions and no clear supervisor.
Sharp declines in asset prices and households’ expectations led to a swift rise in precautionary savings. Conditions worsened rapidly in labor market and job losses have reached levels never seen since the Great Depression. Unprecedented policy reactions to crisis taken by government and central banks worldwide have managed in stabilizing the financial conditions of banks and reduced funding pressures. BIS Review 121/2009  1  Thanks to the decline in counter-party and liquidity risks and the ease of tension in international markets, emerging market equities have rapidly gained ground, bond spreads have narrowed, and volatility in exchange rates came down. Commodity prices have rebounded from their recent low levels. Capacity utilization ratios and industrial production have globally recovered compared to the first quarter of 2009. However, taking into account the loss of confidence and the size of the damage financial institutions and households have suffered, the fragility in the financial sector and reluctance in consumption and investment is likely to continue in the near future. Despite recent signs of revival in global economy, the pace of economic activities remains weak. Problems prevail in the credit markets. Unemployment rates keep rising. In summary, all indicators point to a recovery, which is slow, gradual and painful. Distinguished Guests, Global problems require global solutions. Quite often, changing an existing system is more difficult and expensive than forming a new one. It is obvious that this ongoing crisis is going to end sooner or later as did previous crisis.

Durmuş Yılmaz: The impacts of the current crisis on OIC member countries Opening speech by Mr Durmuş Yilmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, in the Meeting of the Governors of the Central Banks and the Financial Authorities of the Organization of the Islamic Conference Member Countries, Istanbul, 3 October 2009. *  *  *  Governors of Central Banks and Financial Authorities of the Member Countries of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), Dear Guests, I would like to express our pleasure to host this event and such distinguished participants here in Istanbul. Welcome to the meeting of the Governors of the Central Banks and the Financial Authorities of OIC member countries, which is the only organization that gathers Islamic world under one roof. What makes this meeting more meaningful is that we are also celebrating the 40th anniversary of the Organization of the Islamic Conference and 25th anniversary of the Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (COMCEC) this year. As the cradle of civilizations for centuries and the European capital of culture in 2010, Istanbul is an ideal venue for this meeting. Dear Guests, The current global financial and economic crisis, we have been experiencing since last year, has profound negative impacts on the economies of many countries in all parts of the world, reinforcing inspiration and need for restructuring the current order of the global community based on the principles of justice, equity, participation and peace.
Weak external demand is a significant constraint on economic growth. Moreover, the momentum for the recovery in the global economy may be waning now. As a result of this heterogeneity, there may be significant differences in price dynamics in different industries and regions, both now and in future. This trend is clearly demonstrated by data on consumer inflation in summer. The return to potential in different product markets may occur at a different pace. For instance, in industries focused on domestic demand, this may be a faster process than in export industries; the recovery of the consumer-facing sector may be quicker than in the production of investment goods. Therefore, it is essential to consider not only the general output gap in the economy, that is, the deviation of output from its potential, but also the situation 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  in individual sectors. If output in industries focused on domestic demand returns to its potential faster than generally across the economy, this will amplify overall inflationary pressure. We take this into account when analysing the economic situation and making key rate decisions. At present, the effects of deferred domestic demand have been considerably implemented and the overall recovery of the Russian economy is likely to continue at a more moderate pace. This year, both fiscal and monetary policies are contributing to the economic recovery.

Elvira Nabiullina: Review of recent inflation developments in Russia and economic outlook Statement by Ms Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Bank of Russia, in the follow-up to the Board of Directors meeting, Moscow, 18 September 2020. * * * Today, the Bank of Russia has decided to maintain the key rate at 4.25% per annum. Why have we made this decision, although we do see room to further ease monetary policy under the baseline scenario? Firstly, in recent months inflation has been slightly higher than expected. This trend has been driven by both a rapid revival of consumer demand after the lockdown period and the weakening of the ruble in July — August. We estimate that short-term proinflationary risks have slightly risen again, while disinflationary risks somewhat decreased. However, disinflationary risks still prevail in the medium run. Secondly, the external environment has become more volatile. There are rising concerns about the pace and sustainability of the recovery in the global economy, especially considering that in recent weeks the pandemic situation has worsened to a certain extent in a number of countries. Geopolitical risks have intensified. Moreover, we also considered the following factors when making our decisions. Inflation expectations remain elevated, affected by price and exchange rate movements and the persistent uncertainty over further developments. The companies we survey are reporting rises in costs due to higher input prices. Moreover, they incur extra costs since they need to comply with the sanitary and epidemiological requirements. Concurrently, businesses assess demand for their products as weak.
Since the turmoil of 1998, financial firms have made significant strides in the sophistication with which they assess and manage counterparty credit exposures arising from OTC derivative transactions. Rather than using the broad “rule of thumb” methods that were once the industry norm, OTC derivatives dealers now commonly assess counterparty exposures on a portfolio basis using more sophisticated approaches to capture both current mark-to-market exposures and the potential future exposure that could arise from changes in the contracts’ underlying rates and prices. These models make possible - but they cannot of course guarantee - an appropriately conservative assessment of the potential reduction in future exposure provided by netting agreements and collateral arrangements. Dealers have also made significant strides in developing and employing more sophisticated and exacting ways to stress test their exposures. Taken together, these approaches have resulted in more realistic measures of counterparty exposures and to better management of counterparty risk. Beyond these improved exposure assessments, the use of collateral is much more prevalent than in the past. For instance, surveys by ISDA suggest that the share of fixed income derivatives exposures covered by collateral has increased from 40 percent to 55 percent just since 2002. Collateral is almost universally posted by all counterparties except those with the very highest credit ratings. There have also been significant improvements in the legal certainty surrounding these collateral arrangements.

Given the growth in this market, credit exposure by banks and securities firms to the overall hedge fund sector may be higher than in 1998, but is likely spread more widely across funds. While there may well be more diversity in the types of strategies hedge funds follow, there is also considerable clustering, which raises the prospect of larger moves in some markets if conditions lead to a general withdrawal from these “crowded” trades. Overall, hedge funds can play a beneficial role in the U.S. financial system. They contribute to one of the defining strengths of our financial markets: the ease with which we match capital to ideas and innovation. They represent one aspect of a broader, quite favorable, trend toward a greater diversity of participants in U.S. financial markets and in that respect, they contribute to a broader spreading of risk. But they also present risks to the financial system. The extent of the risk they present to the system as a whole depends significantly on the prudence of the institutions that enable them to increase leverage. The improvement in market practice in managing counterparty credit risk since 1998 is encouraging, but it is important that firms continue to strengthen those disciplines. At the most fundamental level, intermediaries providing credit to hedge funds need to ensure that the terms and conditions of their provision of credit - including the contingent credit that is an increasing feature of prime brokerage arrangements - appropriately reflects the risks involved.
Mr Bäckström reports on the Swedish economy and monetary policy  Speech given by Mr Urban Bäckström, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Board of Directors and President of the Bank for International Settlements, to the FöreningsSparbanken, in Malmö on 16 February 2000. *  *  *  The repo rate increases In order to understand why the Riksbank has raised the repo rate in two steps from 2.90% last November to 3.75% less than a fortnight ago, it is necessary to consider the situation in 1998. The mood at that time, in the global economy as well as in Sweden, was coloured by the Asian crisis, the suspension of Russian payments, the problems with the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management and falling stock-market prices. It was considered that in addition to direct problems, the financial crisis in the autumn of 1998 would have negative effects on real economic activity. Forecasters altered their assessments and the prospects for global output and inflation were revised downwards. Central banks around the world did likewise and the Riksbank was no exception. Instrumental rates were reduced in many countries. Between the early summer of 1998 and the spring of 1999 the Riksbank cut the repo rate by a total of 150 basis points, bringing it down from 4.40 to 2.90%. The actions of central banks probably mitigated effects of the various shocks.

These rates are not only modest, but are also subject to certain risks, which, on balance, point to even lower increases in economic activity. Turning to prices, for some months now inflation has been well short of the 2% benchmark, which is the ECB’s medium-term monetary policy target. The forecasts available continue to point to the risk of inflation remaining too low for too long. The ECB’s latest projections entail a further downward revision, with inflation expected to stand at 0.7% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016. In recent months, against a background in which, given the weakness of demand and fierce competition, firms have limited price-setting power, the slump in the price of oil has exacerbated the drop in inflation. At the end of 2014, the annual rate of inflation stood at –0.2% (the average rate in 2014 was +0.4%) and it is expected to remain at very low or negative levels in the early months of 2015. This heightens the risk of second-round effects on wages and prices that could have an adverse impact on inflation expectations in the medium term. Indeed, the latest private sector forecasts have seen substantial downward revisions for all terms. Thus, for example, according to the January edition of Consensus Forecasts, the leading private sector economic forecast publication, the average rate of inflation forecast for 2015 is just 0.1%, compared with 0.6% forecast for the same period a month earlier.
The challenges come from the cost and effort of putting in place the necessary systems and personnel to handle what is a complex business and which carries a high degree of reputation risk if something goes wrong. Success in the MPF business also requires an established customer base, good distribution networks and strong brand image. All this means that the MPF is not a business where small players can hope to be successful on a stand-alone basis. Even for the large companies that have captured the lion's share of the business, the start-up costs and the ongoing expenses mean that it will probably take a few years for them to break even and still longer to achieve a reasonable return of capital. However, this should not blind us to the strategic importance of the MPF for the banking and financial services industry in Hong Kong. This is why it was vital for the smaller banks to pool their resources in the Bank Consortium Trust. This has enabled them to establish a credible vehicle and win a market share that is probably larger than the shareholders could have achieved if they had acted independently. The strategic appeal of the MPF lies not simply in the long-term profit opportunities that it offers directly. It is also that it will help to build a relationship with both employers and their employees that can be used to generate cross-selling opportunities.

It was a time when there was an absence of speculators. It was only in 1997-98 when the ringgit and other regional currencies came under speculative attack. The volume of foreign exchange transactions had become massive, far exceeding volume of trade and the normal financial flows. This resulted in exchange rate volatility during the Asian crisis that occurred wave after wave. Regional currencies continued to plummet during this period. After more than a year of this turmoil and uncertainty in the foreign exchange market, Malaysia implemented selective capital controls and de-internationalised the ringgit. This was instrumental in restoring stability in the market. It acted very much like a circuit breaker. Offshore trading of the ringgit, the major source for financing the speculative attacks, was effectively eliminated. Within a year, all the controls that were imposed were removed. More than 10 years later, the ringgit, however, still remains non-internationalised. An important precondition for the internationalisation is the development of a robust foreign exchange market in our financial system. Financial stability The events surrounding the current financial crisis has brought into sharp focus the role of central banks in financial stability. As these events continue to unfold with great uncertainty on the financial markets and broader economy, allow me to reflect on Bank Negara Malaysia's own role in financial stability. In addition to its functions as the lender of last resort, Bank Negara Malaysia has also had the responsibility for the regulation of banking institutions.