samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Average MPC vote includes both decisions on Bank Rate and QE, with every extra £ of asset purchases (gilts and corporate bonds) treated as equivalent to a 25bp cut in Bank Rate (see Joyce, Tong and Woods, 2011). With uncertainty about supply now overwhelming uncertainty about demand, and with the strong desire to secure a recovery in an economy that had – reportedly at least – only narrowly missed a triple dip recession, the MPC provided forward guidance in August 2013 that explicitly linked any potential change in interest rates to the unemployment rate. By using a clear and widely understood indicator of the degree of spare capacity,6 the Committee sought to secure the nascent recovery while learning more about the supply capacity of the economy. Recall that at the time fiscal consolidation continued to weigh on domestic demand, making monetary policy the “only game in town.”  6  For the full text of the guidance, see the minutes of the August 2013 MPC meeting, available at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/minutes/2013/monetary-policy-committee-august-2013. 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  7  The message the Committee gave UK households and businesses was simple: the MPC would not even think about tightening policy at least until the unemployment rate had fallen below 7%, consistent with the creation of around three quarter of a million jobs. We reassured households and businesses that, after five difficult years, the recovery would not be choked off prematurely.

The upturn was originally well balanced being led by foreign direct investment and exports. But eventually it turned into overheating and a surge in private consumption, which was fuelled, among other things, by rapid credit expansion in an increasingly liberalised financial environment. In due course, the imbalances began to have a negative effect on expectations, partly because of a sharply deteriorating current account. The currency began to slide and fell by a third in trade-weighted terms over a period of a year and a half until late 2001. This development affected inflation as rising import prices fed into domestic prices. When the inflation targeting framework was adopted, the most recent measure of the twelve month rise of the CPI was about 4%. The króna continued to depreciate for some time after the adoption of the target and inflation rose significantly above the upper tolerance limit of the inflation target. The Central Bank pursued a restrictive monetary policy, repeatedly raising its policy interest rate which reached a historically high level. This ultimately led to a rapid fall in inflation after January 2002 and by late that year it had fallen under the inflation target, where it has remained more or less since until the most recent measure. BIS Review 34/2004  1  We have now pursued an inflation targeting policy for more than three years. Our view is that it has been successful. Inflation was brought under control relatively quickly after the adoption of the inflation target in very unbalanced economic circumstances.
Next, I’ll review recent developments in the national and regional economy, and at the end of my talk will be happy to answer any questions you have about the economic outlook. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee. National economic conditions Let me begin by taking stock of where we are at the moment. Then I will address my expectations for the performance of the economy over the remainder of 2013 and into 2014. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which determines the timing of economic recessions and expansions, the current expansion began in mid-2009, more than four years ago. However, the expansion has been subdued so far, as the average annual growth rate of real GDP has been just 2.2 percent over the past four years. While that growth BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  rate is near most FOMC participants’ estimates of the U.S. economy’s longer-run growth rate as well as those of many outside analysts, a more rapid pace of growth likely is necessary to reduce meaningfully the significant economic slack that developed during the Great Recession. Consistent with the modest pace of economic growth, improvement in labor market conditions has been slow.

Against this background, we judge that the level of nominal wages can move up at an annual rate of just over 4%. This is marginally less than foreseen in the December Report. In the longer run, however, wages cannot go on rising at this rate because they would then exceed the room that now looks like being provided by the probable trend for productivity growth. One illustration of this is that in the coming one to two years, underlying domestic inflation will be somewhat above 2%, though this is countered by downward effects from import prices. In our main scenario we judge that overall inflation prospects are in line with the target one to two years ahead but that UND1X inflation will be marginally above the target at the end of the period. With an unchanged repo rate, UND1X inflation is expected to be 1.6% one year ahead and 2.1% after two years. Diagram 3. UND1X forecast with uncertainty intervals  3. UND1X with uncertainty intervals Percentage 12-month change  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 95  96  97  98  99  00  01  02  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  The transitory factors that the Riksbank should disregard in the formation of monetary policy are judged to be small in the coming one to two years. Moreover, the Riksbank considers that the risk spectrum for inflation is balanced.
It was exacerbated by classic moral hazard – the result of past government  BIS Review 69/2007  1  interventions to limit corporate and bank failures. And it was made worse by poor disclosure, which masked the scale of the increase in external liabilities and the deterioration in the level of official reserves. The scale of the buildup of foreign currency debt was fundamental to the dynamics of the crises. Once confidence weakened, and fixed exchange rate commitments became unsustainable, the economies experienced a sharp reversal in capital flows as both residents and nonresidents sought to limit their exposure to domestic institutions and assets. This broad flight from domestic assets created conditions similar to a classic bank run. The exchange rate decline magnified concern about potential losses in the corporate sector and banking system, which led to a further shift in assets out of the country, which exacerbated the exchange rate decline. These balance sheet vulnerabilities led to a vicious cycle in which the exchange rate and financial weaknesses reinforced each other. As economies slipped toward the edge of the cliff, policymakers were left with alarmingly few options to try to contain the crisis and mitigate the damage inflicted on the real economy. Given that real interest rates were already negative, relaxing monetary policy further risked accentuating the exchange rate decline, which would, in turn, have exacerbated the problems of the banking system. But with demand already in free fall, policymakers were equally reluctant to tighten policy and risk further damage to growth.

For this reason, the SNB welcomes the Federal Department of Finance’s decision to set up a commission of experts to draw up proposals on macroprudential oversight and to determine the associated institutional responsibilities. 1  SNB’s comment on the recommendations made by the business audit commission of the National Council and the Council of States. 2  IMF Country Report No. 11/115 within the framework of the Article IV Consultation of May 2011. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
But, like many others, I see a role for professionalism in finance. The Banking Standards Board in the United Kingdom is a thought leader in this field. According to its most recent annual review, which I recommend to you all, “[P]rofessionalism comprises the attitudes, judgement and high standards of behaviour, knowledge and skill expected of individuals working in banking. . . . [G]reater professionalism in banking would help create a sector that, now and in the future, better met the needs and expectations of its customers, clients, members, employees, the economy and wider society.”14 In my view, various aspects of professions have a lot to offer. The eligibility requirements for many professions improve the likelihood that a practitioner will meet standards of competence and behavior in her professional conduct. These requirements cover character, prior record, and reputation—not only skill or education. Members of professions also benefit from codes of conduct that transcend specialized practices. These principles offer an ethical framework within which to tackle problems that are not easily resolved by narrow rules or processes. They make it easier to make and stick with good decisions. Gatherings in which members of a profession can come together and exchange ideas and opinions are crucial. They help members of a professional community keep up to date on important industry-wide developments and raise issues that present the need for collaboration. They also help to instill a shared sense of purpose and responsibility for carrying out the goals of the profession. A profession can also provide personal accountability.

Caleb M Fundanga: Overview of Zambia’s banking sector Remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, on the occasion of the 10th Anniversary of Bank of China (Zambia) Limited, Lusaka, 13 April 2007. *  *  *  • His Excellency – the Chinese Ambassador to Zambia; • Vice-President of the Bank of China – Head Office; • Chairman of the Board of the Bank of China (Zambia) Limited; • Managing Director of the Bank of China (Zambia) Limited; • Distinguished invited guests; and • Ladies and gentlemen Let me first express my sincere gratitude for having been invited to speak on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the Bank of China (Zambia) Limited. Ladies and Gentlemen, during the last ten years, the performance of Bank of China has been satisfactory with total assets steadily increasing to K391.4 billion in December 2006from K6.4 billion in December 1997 and total deposits increasing to K294.2 billion in December 2006 from K2 billion in December 1997. On this basis, Bank of China had grown to become the eighth largest bank in Zambia albeit operating with only one branch. Bank of China (Zambia) is a 100% subsidiary of Bank of China which went through a successful initial public offer (IPO) and has resulted in Bank of China being a top tier globally listed bank. Over the same period in Zambia, the overall financial performance and condition of the banking sector has been satisfactory.
I don’t think any of us want to return to the Great Inflation of the 1970s. Inflation also tends to become more variable at high levels, making it more difficult for both businesses and households to plan ahead and make financial decisions. By keeping inflation low and stable, we contribute to maintaining economic activity and employment at a high level. 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  High and variable inflation rates also have distributional implications. As an unexpected rise in prices will not automatically be followed by an increase in wages and benefits, the result will be a reduction in purchasing power, particularly for those with low incomes and small margins. Norges Bank cannot influence international commodity prices or water reservoir levels. Inflation caused by these factors is beyond our control. But we can take steps to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. Higher interest rates have the effect of reducing demand for both labour and goods and services, thereby pushing down wage and price inflation. In addition, higher interest rates can contribute to strengthening the krone, which can in turn curb the rise in prices for imported goods. Chart: Household debt has increased As the policy rate is raised, residential mortgage rates will rise. Norwegian households are highly leveraged. Over the past 30 years, household debt as a percentage of disposable income has doubled. With higher debt, increased interest rates will have a stronger impact on household budgets and, combined with the high level of inflation, will curb growth in household consumption ahead.

Limited spare capacity in the Norwegian economy and persistent external inflationary pressures may lead to inflation accelerating further. On the other hand, the rise in interest rates and high inflation may cool down the housing market and curb household consumption faster than currently envisaged. There is also a risk of a sharper slowdown in global growth. The future path of the policy rate will depend on how the economy evolves. We cannot make any promises about the policy rate. The promise we can make is that we will continue our efforts to fulfil the mandate of keeping inflation low and stable and to promote economic stability. 1 A new set of forecasts was not prepared for the monetary policy meeting on 17 August. Updated forecasts will  be presented when Monetary Policy Report 3/22 is published on 22 September. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
Meanwhile inflation on our inflation target measure has also averaged some 2¾% over the past seven or eight years. Helped by the dampening effect on UK inflation of the weakness of the euro against sterling, we have been below the 2½% target now for the past year and a half, and currently - on the standard HICP measure - we have the lowest rate of inflation in Europe at around 1%. Our problem in the UK is the imbalance within the overall economy between those sectors that are competing with producers in the Eurozone, who are under considerable pressure, and the rest of the economy, which is doing relatively well. Believe me, we are very conscious of the desirability of BIS Review 92/2000  2  exchange rate stability with our partners in the single market - even though we recognise that membership of the euro provides only nominal, rather than real, exchange rate certainty, and is, of course, limited to the Eurozone. Why then do we hesitate? The answer - in terms of the economics of the euro - it seems to me - and here I differ from Jean-Claude - is quite straightforward - not a bit paradoxical or bizarre! It is because to join the euro we would have to live with the single monetary policy. It may be that in time we could expect to do so relatively comfortably.

For instance, the simple approach of Basel II ties the amount of required capital to ratings by External Credit Assessment Institutions (ECAIs) because they have the strength in both the wealth of data and expertise in credit risk assessment. Unfortunately, only a few large companies in emerging countries are rated. Therefore, a challenge for regulators lies in the process of ECAI recognitions and risk-weight mapping processes as they must ensure stability of the banking system while at the same time foster the development of local ECAIs and the bond market. These efforts will undoubtedly take considerable time and patience, but it is a road that has to be taken. 6  BIS Review 89/2007  The challenge of implementing structural reforms The two facets of monetary and financial stability that I discussed are present in all economies. But in the emerging market context, the interaction between them and the tensions that arise in terms of where the policy emphasis is placed are arguably more complex with greater welfare implications. Let me end by touching on some of the complexities that arise in this regard and highlight some of the challenges in implementing structural reform in emerging markets. The first problem is that the gains from reform are hard to quantify because they are often indirect and thus rarely fully appreciated by the wider public. Also the fact that many structural reforms entail short run costs compounds the problem.
Opening up the market to competition and authorizing a second credit bureau in 2016 was a further step towards improving the quality of services provided to credit institutions and consumers. The range of products offered has expanded to include new decision-aiding tools, such as “behavior scoring”, “portfolio monitoring” and “alerting”. In close coordination with the Ministry of Economy and Finance, Bank Al-Maghrib is currently working to rapidly develop the legal and regulatory framework of “credit bureaus” in order to expand its scope to other nonfinancial data providers, including telecom operators and water/electricity suppliers. This will help the unbanked population to have access to financing, as demonstrated by the experience of pioneering countries in this area. 2  As regards the implementation of the second pillar, the Bank has undertaken since 2016, in collaboration with the IFC, an appraisal of the existing system and has identified the characteristics of the future credit registry. In this connection, today’s seminar is a real opportunity for us to learn about the experiences of forerunners in this field, with a view to finalizing our own roadmap. Ladies and gentlemen, Six regulators, well known for their optimal use of credit registries, will present to us today how they use credit reporting data to achieve their core missions, particularly micro and macro prudential regulation, systemic risk control and monetary policy, and strengthen off-site supervision.

These topics are of particular importance in the current context in which our economies are undergoing significant changes in the credit market as well as in the behavior of consumers and borrowers. Therefore, it is essential to upgrade financial infrastructures, which constitute a central element in the credit risk management system, in order to accompany these changes and help us to meet the challenges we face. Before concluding, I would like to emphasize the invaluable opportunities that the new information technologies can offer us in terms of data sharing, collection and storage. But they also involve major challenges, particularly in terms of cyber security and personal data protection. I wish you a successful and fruitful meeting, and hope that you can combine business with pleasure and allow yourself some time to discover the millennial richness of Rabat, this imperial city which was listed by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site on June 29, 2012. Thank you for your attention. 3
Süreyya Serdengeçti: Basic changes in the Turkish economy - problems and solutions Opening speech by Mr Süreyya Serdengeçti, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, on the occasion of the 73rd Shareholders’ Ordinary General Meeting of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Ankara, 12 April 2005. *  *  *  Esteemed Shareholders, Distinguished Guests and Dear Members of the Press; Welcome to the 73rd Shareholders’ Ordinary General Meeting of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Before I begin my speech, I would like to share with you the happiness that we have this year been able to achieve the single digit inflation figures that we have wished for many years and the Turkish lira has once again gained credibility. The main framework of my speech will cover the process that has brought us up to this point and what we need to do in order to achieve and maintain price stability. In other words, leaving aside the shallow evaluations stuck in the triangle of FX rates-exchange ratesinterest rates-stock market rates; the core of my speech today will focus on apart the basic changes in the economy, deep-rooted problems and the ways out of these problems. The Turkish economy has faced a problem of almost 30-years of high and chronic inflation. During this period, many programs have been implemented to push down inflation.

SMEs can enjoy lower financing costs offered by this scheme with a 2% reduction in financing rate. Sukuk issuers also benefit from the three year extension of the double tax deduction for additional expenditure incurred for sukuk issued under Ijarah and Wakalah principles. Other cost savings for sukuk issuers include reduction in professional fees relating to due diligence, drafting and preparation of prospectus; and various fees charged by Securities Commission Malaysia and Bursa Malaysia. Islamic finance is anchored on sustainable values beyond profit The unique propositions of Islamic finance are drawn from its underlying Shariah principles that have universal applications, which fundamentally advocate the prevention of harm or attainment of benefits. All Islamic finance transactions must reflect Islamic values which are ethical and fair. Any financial conduct or transaction relating to goods or services that are contrary to Islamic principles are prohibited, thus promoting fairness, equality and justice. As such, Islamic finance practitioners are duty-bound to observe the norms of high ethical conduct to uphold the values and the sanctity of Shariah. Businesses can therefore take assurance that their financial needs are well served, managed and protected. For the halal industry, players could benefit greatly from appropriately raised funding and protection, which ultimately nurture an end-to-end halal ecosystem. Beyond this, the Islamic financial system also promotes Value-based Intermediation (VBI). Through VBI, Islamic financial institutions are encouraged to adopt more structured frameworks to assess how they create value and impact, particularly in response to changing economic, social and environmental conditions.
Jarle Bergo: The outlook for the Norwegian economy and the challenges ahead Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at Norges Bank, Bodø, 25 August 2005. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 11 August, Inflation Report 2/05 and on previous speeches. The references and the  Charts in pdf-format can also be found on the website of the Norges Bank. *  *  *  The economic situation The Norwegian economy is in an upturn and is now expanding at a brisk pace. Inflation remains low, but has edged up since last year. The risk of a fall in the level of prices and markedly lower inflation expectations has diminished. At the same time, there appears to be little risk that inflation will rapidly move up to a level that is too high. The reduction in the interest rate through 2003 and into 2004 has resulted in low real interest rates. For a period, the real interest rate has been considerably lower than normal. The low level of interest rates is supporting the high activity level in the Norwegian economy. The economic upturn is broad-based. At the beginning of the recovery, activity was primarily fuelled by private consumption, traditional exports and petroleum investment. In addition, growth in mainland fixed investment has gradually gained considerable momentum.

It is not too far-fetched – to envisage the generation of breakthrough thinking for future research collaboration that is solution-driven; practical; and innovative in future meetings of this forum. Ibnu Taymiyyah once said: “Surely among the main thrusts in a religion is the union of hearts, the unison of views and easing of disputes conducted in good way.” I implore all of us to begin today’s dialogue with an open mind and candid sharing of experiences that can benefit us all. It is through collaboration and cooperation that the intended values and impact of Islamic finance can be realised for the betterment of the ummah. On that note, I wish you a productive and engaging discussion. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches