samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
19  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  19  labour that result from Brexit – both effective and actual – should steepen the wage Phillips curve, increasing the sensitivity of domestic wages to domestic labour market slack (moving in the opposite direction to the rotation shown by (3) in Figure 1 above). UK potential supply capacity itself is also likely to be lower as some capacity tied to Europe becomes obsolete. The reduction and reorientation of trade is likely to weigh on productivity for some time through a loss of comparative advantage and the disruption of supply chains as companies in the UK shift from supplying customers in the EU to customers in the rest of the world. Empirical estimates suggest a 20% reduction in trade tends to drag on productivity by around 5% in the long run. 53  The actual impact will  depend on how quickly any lost access to European and third country markets (via European trade deals) can be replaced. In this regard, the UK Prime Minister’s discussions in Canada today are potentially significant. With respect to the exchange rate, the effects of imported inflation are particularly important to UK inflation dynamics, given both the openness of its economy, the low degree of home currency invoicing  54  and the  relatively slow but significant pass through of large, persistent exchange rate moves.

Each of these banks has had to structure their business models to ensure that they are independently viable, and have adequate and stable funding sources. The PRA has examined the banks’ financial projections, and these assessments fed into the approvals that formed part of the ring-fencing process. But banks should, as a matter of course, continue to examine carefully their viability and funding risks. For example, as part of their contingency funding planning, banks will need to consider what options are available to them to meet any unexpected outflows. These banks are able to access the full range of the Bank of England’s liquidity  5 6  See Independent Commission on Banking (2011), Final Report, para 3.91. See Bank of England (2018), Financial Stability Report, June, page 31. 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  6  facilities, including the Discount Window Facility, and they should consider the extent to which they have collateral that can be used to obtain liquidity should they need it. How will we supervise the ring-fence? The PRA’s work on ring-fencing does not end with the implementation of the new regime on 1 January. From this date the PRA’s focus moves from putting up fences to ensuring they remain fit for purpose. From 2019 the PRA has a statutory objective to ensure that ring-fenced banks do not threaten the continuous provision of core retail banking services.
However, technological developments on markets may have gradually reinforced this type of behaviour. The spread of benchmarking, which allows fund managers and clients to measure performance against that of other funds, together with the growing competition within the sector, appear to have increased such mimetic behaviour. Some operators have come to the conclusion that it is better to be wrong along with everybody else, rather than take the risk of being wrong alone. -  The spread of certain fund management techniques, in particular index management, which has proven very popular on equity markets, may have contributed to amplifying movements in financial asset prices. This technique endeavours to match as accurately as possible developments in stock market benchmark indices. It therefore mechanistically leads managers to accentuate current price trends by buying stocks that are on the rise and selling those that are falling. -  The impact of risk management techniques on market dynamics is particularly enlightening with regard to the question of asset price overshooting. Of course, central banks and financial institutions should continue to encourage the use of these instruments. But, in times of financial turmoil, the growing use of sophisticated risk management techniques by financial intermediaries has had the paradoxical effect of amplifying the initial shock and the spill-over effect. Regardless of the intrinsic qualities of these risk management tools, their growing use may have produced pernicious effects.

Jean-Claude Trichet: Views on recent economic developments in the euro area and international financial architecture Address by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, Governor of the Banque de France, at the Institute of International Finance Spring Membership Meeting held in Hong Kong on 1 June 2001. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It’s a great pleasure for me to share some views with such a distinguished audience on two topics of great importance: the first one deals with recent economic developments in the euro area and the motivations of the last 25bps rate cut by the ECB on its 10 May’s meeting. The second point deals with the very important question of international financial architecture. Let me start with the first topic. The global outlook for 2001 continues to be characterised by sizeable uncertainties, amid the readjustments taking place in the American and Japanese economies, and their impact on the rest of the world. In the United States, however, while the GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2001 indicates that the slowdown has been substantial, the economy is still driven so far by firm consumer expenditure. Economic activity in the euro area in 2000 expanded at an annualised rate of 3.4%, the strongest growth since 1990, driven by buoyant domestic and foreign demand. The general outlook for this year and next one remains positive, even if, clearly, some impact of the American slowdown is already visible.
Aggregate demand continues to be negatively affected by the difficulties of our main trading partners, low confidence of Albanian businesses and households, tightened financing conditions. However, the domestic private demand increased in the fourth quarter, after decreasing a quarter earlier. Indirect indicators suggest that developments in private investments were positive in the fourth quarter, while final consumption by the population continued to be weak. As previously stated, the Bank of Albania maintains that developments in both components of the aggregate demand will dictate the economy’s performance in the short and medium term. In this regard, we deem that the expected improvement in financing conditions and balance sheets, due to the payment of fiscal arrears, and the reduction of uncertainties will provide the needed incentives for a better performance in the forthcoming quarters. Nonetheless, the recovery of consumption and private investments will require a more courageous behaviour and higher risk taking willingness by economic agents. Developments in the external sector signal a negative contribution from net exports during the last quarter of the year. Net exports deficit expanded, as imports increased in the fourth quarter. In January and February, the trade deficit marked an annual increase of 6.7% due to the increase in import of goods and the growth rate moderation in exports. The ability of the Albanian economy to maintain the stable pace of growth for exports and diversify the base of exported goods will be a primary factor for providing medium and long-term economic growth in Albania.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Chart 1  © Globe Cartoon  Chart 2 Switzerland’s foreign trade, 2000−2015  Source: Swiss Customs Administration  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 3 Interest and exchange rates, 2008−2011  Chart 4 Monetary base from 2008 to the present day  BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Chart 5 Interest and exchange rates from 2012 to the present day  8  BIS central bankers’ speeches
The model used for monetary policy of decisions being made by a committee made up of both Bank of England executives and independent experts has been expanded to financial stability with the creation of both a Financial Policy Committee and a Board of Prudential Regulation. As I have argued, those policy committees will be more effective if they have access to the broadest range of the Bank’s analysis and information and are as well informed as possible about each other’s reaction function. The now very wide range of the Bank’s responsibilities also creates a need to strengthen the oversight arrangements for the Bank as a whole. For delivery of our statutory objectives, the Bank is accountable to the public, through Parliament’s Treasury Committee. That accountability is being reinforced. Parliament has created an Oversight Committee of 8 non-executives who are in the Bank but not of the Bank. The Government has today announced the appointment of Anthony Habgood to lead the Bank’s Court of Directors and the Oversight Committee. I welcome the appointment of someone of his depth and breadth of corporate experience. Independent oversight by the committee he will chair can strengthen the Bank’s legitimacy and effectiveness. The Oversight Committee has access to internal papers, is able to observe meetings of policy committees, and is responsible for reviewing all aspects of the conduct of the Executive of the Bank, including the delivery of policy, the design of and adherence to rigorous processes and procedures, and the monitoring of our transparency and openness.

BIS Review 124/2007  1
At this point we see an improvement in the global growth outlook and an increase in international commodity prices on the back of positive developments in the vaccination process, in addition to expansionary policies. However, despite the ongoing vaccination efforts, the ongoing uncertainties regarding the vaccination process and the course of the pandemic keep the risks to the global economy alive. Distinguished Guests, At my first General Assembly meeting, let me briefly share with you some important issues regarding the monetary policy. Under the duties and powers set forth by law and in line with its main objective of achieving a permanent fall in inflation, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will continue to use the monetary policy tools effectively. We are strictly committed to the medium-term inflation target of 5%, defined as price stability and set jointly with the Government. We are going to use the monetary policy tools appropriately to achieve this target. I would like to underline that we are determined to bring inflation down to 5% in 2023 and keep it there permanently, consistent with the medium-term framework we set out in the January Inflation Report. I am aware that the low inflation environment that we target is a prerequisite for sustainable economic growth as well as employment growth. We will remain determined and resolute to reach this target with our corporate capacity, strong analytical capability and sense of responsibility. The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments independently and effectively in pursuit of its primary objective.

Such a step would only be taken in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity, and all the sums borrowed would  Page 5 of 6 be gradually repaid by the banking sector. Rather, it is about building confidence in bank resolution in Europe by showing that it will always be able to intervene effectively in the event of a crisis. Such a system will also encourage the lifting of the constraints imposed by certain national authorities on capital and liquidity flows. I regard the European Commission's proposal to set up a backstop through a credit line provided by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) as a top priority. We also need a common scheme for providing liquidity to financially sound banks after resolution which is in line with euro area monetary policy rules. Of course, a compromise will have to be found in order to make headway on the third pillar of the Banking Union, deposit insurance. Once we have completed the resolution framework, we will be less in need of a shared European scheme. A pragmatic approach could be to introduce a system of loans between national deposit guarantee schemes (DGS), with guarantee mechanisms to ensure that liquidity advances do not lead to losses for the lending DGS. This would lead to a sharing of liquidity without sharing risks, which would be a first step towards shoring up financial sector confidence and strengthening depositor protection.
Percentage points 0 .2 0 .1 -0  Year 1  Year 2  -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .6 Source: Norges Bank JB 7. februar 2003  Sub-index model  RIMINI  RIMINI  Year 3  Isolated effect on consumer price inflation of a persistent rise in labour costs of 1 percentage point 0 .8  Year 4  Year 3  0 .6 Year 2  0 .4 Year 1  0 .2  0 Source: Norges Bank JB 7. februar 2003  Annual wage growth1) and unemployment2) Per cent  1 0 .0 8 .2 7 .7  8 .0  10  Unemployment 6 .2  5 .8  6 .0  5 .1 4 .4  4 .0 2 .9  2 .7  8  Annual wage growth  6 .7  3 .0  5 .3  5 .5  5.83)  6  4 .3 3 .1  2 .9  3 .2  3 .6 3 .1  2 .0  4 2  0 .0  0 1 9 93 1 9 94 1 99 5 1 99 6 1 99 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2  1) Average for all groups. Including costs of additional vacation days 2) Registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes.

Change in consumer price inflation in percentage points 0 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .5 År  -0 .6 1  2  3  4  Source: Norges Bank JB 7. februar 2003  Effects on consumer price inflation of a persistent appreciation of 5 per cent of the import-weighted krone exchange rate.
In the area of infrastructure development in Asia, the overall investment requirements for the next ten years are estimated to be about USD8 trillion. To support these developments, the regional financial integration process in Asia needs to be accelerated and deepened. Significant progress has already been achieved in strengthening cooperation and collaboration efforts amongst regional policymakers within the Asian region to ensure that financial stability in the region is preserved. Efforts have also been taken to develop the financial markets in Asia. In addition, after a decade of financial reforms, the financial systems in Asia have emerged resilient. While the financial systems in several of the advanced economies continue to be confronted by unresolved challenges, financial systems in the region have continued to function and perform well to support private sector economic activity. Financial institutions in Asia, have in fact, continued to expand their reach within the region during this period to support and facilitate the regional financial and economic integration. As regional financial integration accelerates moving forward, this would contribute towards sustaining the future prospects of the region as it increasingly becomes an important growth centre in the world economy. With China now becoming Malaysia’s largest trading partner, Bank Negara Malaysia and the People’s Bank of China have entered into a bilateral currency swap arrangement in 2009. This swap arrangement serves as a key platform to promote trade and investment linkages between both countries.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Economic ties between China and Malaysia Address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Launch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Malaysia) Berhad, Kuala Lumpur, 28 April 2010. *  *  *  It gives me great pleasure to be here today on the official launch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Malaysia) Berhad (ICBC). The establishment of ICBC in Malaysia, the largest commercial bank in the world today, represents an important development in forging stronger economic and financial ties between the People’s Republic of China and Malaysia. This licence is issued pursuant to the arrangement entered into between the Government of Malaysia and the People’s Republic of China in 2009, reinforcing a long-term relationship that has been strengthened over the years. The presence of ICBC, in our financial system will pave the way for increased business and investment opportunities between our two countries. As Asia leads the global recovery and with the progressive liberalisation in the region, the economic integration of the Asian region can be expected to strengthen further. Today, intraregional trade in Asia has increased to an average of 50% of the total exports of the region as compared to 32% in 1995. The underlying structural and demographic changes in Asia are expected to reinforce this trend. In addition, as domestic demand in the regional economies increases, it will provide further impetus to intra-regional trade and to the overall prospects for Asia.
It is not clear that before the late 19 century a single dominant financial centre existed in Europe as the economies of scale were not sufficiently developed. 5  There is perhaps another puzzle in the way financial services have developed, one that is closer to home. The resurgence of London. According to the Global Financial Centres Index, London is the world’s leading 6  financial centre, just as it was in the days of Cunliffe Bros. But as we know, London did not enjoy uninterrupted status as a premier financial centre over the intervening period. As I have noted, international financial activity dried up materially after the First World War. But even accounting for the overall decline, London’s relative importance as a financial centre declined further as the global footprint and importance of the UK economy decreased along with sterling’s reserve currency role. It was only with return to financial globalisation, some 50 years ago, that this process was reversed – leading to the concentration we now see. The puzzle here is that historically, the clustering of financial activity has tended to follow trade and commerce. It was commerce that led to the rise of Venice and then Amsterdam as financial centres in the th  th  16 and 17 centuries.

Transparency requires me to record, in this genealogy, that one of the founding Houses of the Accepting Houses Committee back in 1914 was Cunliffe Bros, whose founder was actually Governor of the Bank of England at the time. Transparency however also requires me to make clear that he was no relation. I do, however, feel a little sense of eponymous history in speaking here tonight. Financial markets of course have changed greatly since Cunliffe Bros, with half a million pounds of capital, was a force in the City. I want to look today briefly at how financial markets have grown worldwide, why they are subject to strong pressures to cluster activities in key centres and how this has affected the concentration of financial services in the UK – or as it is often, and misleadingly described, in London. 2  I also want to touch on two of the fundamental challenges faced by financial markets and the institutions that support them – maintaining, or some would say, restoring their ‘social license’ and managing systemic risk. And finally, given that this is the Association for Financial Markets in Europe, I will touch briefly on one or two possible implications for European capital markets of the UK’s exit from the European Union. In passing, I will say a little about how the Bank sees these issues. Our role and responsibilities have evolved as markets have evolved.
structured investment vehicles and conduits), so no further capital requirements were necessary for the banks. Credits were issued on the basis of ever-increasing housing prices, so the mortgage was backing enough to relax the lending standards. As often occurs when the storm hits, the situation reversed and a credit contraction followed (figure 8). Also, the real-estate bubble created a demand for homes as financial assets. These loans were sold to agents that neglected the risk evaluation process, hence the contamination to the whole financial system. The "originate and distribute" model crashed, risk-rating institutions were unable to properly rate complex securities, while the executive compensation structure also encouraged the search for returns. Lending to risky borrowers that fail to repay is certainly costly, but it can hardly unleash a crisis of the magnitude we are seeing today. The problem is aggravated by the way the  3  This point has been made more intensively in Buiter (2008). For a vision involving other mechanisms, see Muellbauer (2007). 4  According to Barajas et al. (2008) only 20% of the booms en in crisis. BIS Review 124/2008  3  banks got rid of these loans, how they were rated, the derivatives that were created to reduce the risk and pretend they had been transferred away. There are also doubts whether the derivatives markets' operation was as transparent as it should have been or if it was manipulated.

Inexpensive goods can still be produced, if capacity expands without generating price pressures. But the demand for oil, steel, minerals, etc., recorded strong increases, which pushed prices up. The supply has not responded to demand with the same vigor. 5  The empirical literature has been critical in this point, but a recent work by Auer and Fischer (2008) shows that the producer price index of the United States was two percentage points less due to cheap imports from developing economies. 4  BIS Review 124/2008  A case worth highlighting is foods. Some of them absorbed the demand increase due to economic growth with supply increases, but then a new source of demand appeared: bio fuels, which have further strained the prices of grains. Another factor that, according to some analysts, has been important in price hikes has been investor involvement, demanding commodities as another asset in their portfolios. But if investors were buying to resell with a margin, this would translate into an increase in inventories, which it has not. Accordingly, the purchases of futures by some agents go hand in hand with the sale of futures by others, and are normally the counterpart of hedging operations. On the other hand, while investors’ positions have risen substantially in the commodities markets, they still share but a small fraction of the market.