samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This increase comes on the back of a decline in lending by Euro-area banks – over the same period, their share decreased from around a third to less than 15% as they pulled back from the region. Second, Asian banks have been acquiring the Asian business lines from global banks, especially in wealth management. In 2013, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation bought over SocGen’s Japanese private banking arm. And just late last year, OCBC Bank acquired Barclays’ wealth and investment management business in Singapore and Hong Kong. Even as Asian banks push for growth, they continue to maintain high prudential standards. The average Tier 1 capital ratio of Asian banks was 13.4% as of last year, up from 10.6% in 2008 and comfortably above the Basel minimum requirement of 6%. Key Asian jurisdictions who are members of the Financial Stability Board – including China, Japan, Indonesia, Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore – have been assessed to be compliant or largely compliant with the Basel Committee’s capital and liquidity standards. Several other Asian countries – Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand – have also implemented the Basel III rules. Asian banks are dealing with cyclical headwinds The major Asian banks’ sound prudential standards position them well to face the challenges in the current environment – ranging from geopolitical risks to heightened policy uncertainty in the advanced economies. The post-crisis operating environment has been difficult for banks around the world. European bank profitability remains depressed seven years after the global financial crisis, with return on equity or RoE averaging below 3%.

In return, the p2p lenders will refer borrowers who have completed two successful rounds of fund raising to DBS for larger commercial loans and other financial solutions such as cash management. The road to financial inclusion is neither short nor easy. But it is an important one. Broadening access to financial services will offer Asian banks – and FinTechs – the opportunity to grow their business while serving a social purpose. Financial inclusion will be a key priority in the economic co-operation agenda when Singapore assumes the chairmanship of ASEAN next year. Conclusion You will be discussing many of these issues in the days ahead. I look forward to hearing your insights. It leaves me now to hand over to John Williams for his keynote address. He will speak on US monetary policy – a subject of evergreen interest to the financial industry and central banks around the world. I look out for John’s speeches not so much for clues to what the Fed might do next – though that is of course of great interest too – but for the original insights John provides on some of the deep, conceptual issues in monetary policy. John has made thought-provoking contributions in areas such as the natural rate of interest, or r*, and nominal GDP or price level targeting for monetary policy. It is my pleasure now to invite John to share with us his insights on how we should view monetary policy in a changing world.
One step in this direction is to harness the ample immovable property of the government which presently may not be rendering an adequate return. It appears that the setting up of special purpose vehicles may be addressing in part this issue. Perhaps, however, we should go a step further by considering the establishment of a development bank which would utilise various assets of government that are presently underutilised as well as other sources of funding, on similar lines that exist in many EU countries, particularly Germany, where development banks at the regional level undertake very successfully a role in promoting the economy and assisting the government in social and environmental projects. Let me turn now to the domestic banking system. On taking on my responsibilities as Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, I actively involved myself in financial stability issues given my concern with financial markets overseas that were characterised by volatile trading conditions and the contagion effects of the sovereign debt crisis. There is no doubt that the impact of the sovereign debt crisis highlights the importance of ensuring a stable domestic financial system. In fact the case of Ireland shows us that imprudent bank policies can have devastating effects on the economy. In contrast, the domestic banking system played a crucial role in preventing a more severe downturn in economic activity after 2008, and in averting a sharper deterioration in public finances, because of prudent behaviour on the part of the banks in both asset and liability management.

For financial institutions, it can reduce the need for manual intervention and help detect fraud. Our transition to ISO20002 will also pave the way for consistent adoption of enhanced data in payment messages, including Legal Entity Identifiers (LEIs) and Purpose Codes. We will then introduce in spring 2024 a new RTGS core settlement platform, offering greater resilience and enhanced user functionality. The new core platform will be modular, flexible and based on open standards. It has been designed to enable continuous evolution of our platform, which will keep it resilient to new threats and flexible to evolve in line with industry innovation. We are working closely with the payments industry to develop these exciting changes, and to ensure they are ready to implement them on time. But with the payments world continuing to evolve, we are not going to stop with the launch of the new platform. We are planning how to make the most out of the possibilities of the new platform and how best to meet the needs of industry in the future. In the next few weeks we will consult the industry – not just the current users of RTGS – on proposals for continued evolution of the new platform beyond 2024. The proposals can offer a menu of options each designed to maintain and enhance the resilience of the platform; and create new opportunities for the industry to innovate.
BIS Review 99/2008  5  The BoZ also recognizes that financial stability is essential for strong macroeconomic performance and execution of monetary policy. This is clearly reflected in the Bank’s mission statement, referred to earlier. To ensure stability, our supervisory processes are based on a robust regulatory framework, underpinned by on-site inspections and off-site surveillance, which places emphasis on banks proactively managing the risks inherent in their products and services. Financial stability can only exist when all financial system risks are adequately identified, allocated, priced and managed. FSPs face a significant number of risks, which include credit risk, operational risk, market risk and liquidity risk. As a result, a minimum regulatory capital charge is defined to cover these. In responding to the challenge, in 2006, the Capital Adequacy Regulations of 1995 were amended to provide for a tiered capital structure to encourage entrants into the financial sector (see Table 4) The review was aimed at ensuring that banks are adequately capitalised at commencement, and as they operate. In 2005 amendments were made to the Buildings Societies Act, Development Bank of Zambia Act, National Savings and Credit Bank Act and the Banking and Financial Services Act, to ensure harmonisation of these pieces of legislation under this sector. The amendments have enhanced the supervisory oversight of the BoZ on the financial sector. The Bank of Zambia Act is also being reviewed with a view to enhancing operational independence of BoZ.

-  On the policy side, it is striving to maintain monetary conditions in line with the Maastricht Criteria. In this respect, Bank of Albania is carefully considering all available alternatives of monetary policy regimes, among which priority is given to fully fledged inflation targeting strategy. This framework will provide a more sophisticated approach to decision-making and will create a better platform for communicating our commitment to price stability, ultimately leading to a better anchoring of inflation expectations. However, the choice of the new regime will be a conditional decision based upon results of current ongoing research, evaluation of the preconditions and building up of capacities. To this end, we are carefully refining our technical capacities and decision-making processes, following the necessary preconditions, working to achieve real independence for the monetary policy, upgrading our analytical capacities and designing appropriate internal processes. -  On the structural side, the Bank of Albania is also pushing the reform agenda in the financial sector. The reform agenda in the Albanian financial sector aims at gradual implementation of the Acquis Communnautaire standards in banking legislation. We are revising the legal infrastructure. In this regard, a new Draft Banking Law is prepared by the Bank of Albania; likewise a new Law on Securities will be introduced shortly. In addition, efforts are underway to revise legislation on Pension and Investment Funds, and draft a Law on the Payments Systems, which will substitute several sublegal acts issued by the Bank of Albania until now.
The uncertainty bands are constructed so they are symmetrical around our main scenario and for GDP growth and the inflation rate the breadth of the bands is calculated with the aid of our earlier forecasting errors. This gives an incentive to make good forecasts, as large forecasting errors bear the penalty of broad uncertainty bands and the risk of reduced credibility in the forecasts. The uncertainty band for the repo rate cannot be calculated in the same way, as we have only begun to make our own forecasts for the repo rate this year. There are quite simply insufficient historical forecasts to use as a base. The uncertainty band for the repo rate has instead been constructed with the aid of forecasting errors among the so-called implied forward rates (Figure 14). The implied forward rates reflect market expectations of the repo rate. One problem with this method is that the implied forward rates have systematically over-estimated the future repo rate path for a number of years. However, the over-estimation has been removed from the forecasting errors, with reference to the fact that the forward rates also consist of a risk premium that should not be included when using them for forecasts. Different central banks have chosen different methods of illustrating the uncertainty in the forecasts and we regularly compare notes with one another. We are continuing to develop our forecasts The conclusion from this review is that the Riksbank’s forecasts on the whole are rather good, particularly one year ahead.

Second, in the U.S., the banking system was recapitalized and deleveraging occurred quite quickly following the financial crisis. Capital from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, was put into the large banks and soon many of them replaced this TARP capital by raising new equity. The SCAP stress test in 2009, and the annual CCAR stress tests that followed, worked to constrain the rate of bank capital distributions and, thereby, helped to build up bank capital ratios. And, U.S. banks worked hard to clean up their balance sheets. Poor assets were managed down or run off, and underwriting standards were tightened. Third, the Federal Reserve was particularly aggressive early on in its pursuit of monetary policy accommodation in order to keep inflation expectations well-anchored. This is a necessary condition, in my view, to maintain the efficacy of monetary policy. If inflation expectations were to get unmoored to the downside, then it becomes more difficult to pursue a stimulative monetary policy. Could things have been done differently in the U.S. in such a way that would have led to better outcomes? Absolutely. With the benefit of hindsight, we could have and should have been even more aggressive on the monetary policy side. While we made progress with some of the innovations on monetary policy that we eventually introduced – such as the openended purchase of $ billion of Treasury and MBS securities per month – it would have been better if we had done this sooner.
BIS Review 68/2010  10 0  20 0  1209  0609  12 08  80 0608  0 1207  0110  0109  0108  0107  0106  0105  0104  0103  0 0102  -6 0101  0.5  0100  -4  06 07  -2  *Average of the values that emerging market currencies take against the currency basket of 1 US dollar and 1 Euro. Equals 100 on June 2007 and an upward movement denotes depreciation of emerging market currencies. Source: Bloomberg. 3  9. The rate cut cycle that was initiated by the central banks of both advanced and the emerging countries at the height of the global crisis during the final quarter of 2008, continued in the first quarter of 2009, albeit with less pace. Monetary easing cycle in advanced economies, which significantly slowed down in the second quarter of 2009, ceased completely in the third quarter. Emerging market central banks, on the other hand, continued to cut policy rates at a reduced pace to contain the impact of the global crisis on economic activity. 10. As of year-end, most central banks kept policy rates at low levels and continued to implement expansionary monetary policy to stimulate economic activity by using unconventional monetary policy tools. In the first quarter of 2010, a limited number of central banks tightened their monetary policy stance by increasing policy rates, while most of them kept their rates unchanged at low levels.

These reforms, by promoting registered employment, will also help us overcome problems in our social security system. Unemployment Rates (Percent) 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 2004  2005 Unemployment Rat e  2006  2007  2008  2009  Non-Farm Unemployment Rate  Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Distinguished Guests, 22. The impact of the global economic crisis on Turkey’s foreign trade has been evident, and the contraction in domestic and foreign demand and the slumps in commodity prices, especially in crude oil as well as iron and steel led imports and exports to shrink rapidly as of the last quarter of 2008. Significant declines have been observed throughout the year in imports and exports, which tended to recover as of the second quarter of 2009 as signs of revival in global economic activity appeared. Total exports of goods fell by 22.1 percent to 109.7 billion USD, while total imports of goods fell by 30.7 percent year-on-year to 134.4 billion USD in 2009. Consequently, the foreign trade deficit, which was 53 billion USD in 2008, dropped to 24.7 billion USD in 2009. 23. The adverse impact of the global crisis on tourism revenues was translated as a decrease in expenditures. In 2009, tourism revenues decreased by 3.2 percent. The said decline is mainly attributable to the fall in average tourism revenues. In fact, the number of visitors increased by 3.3 percent in 2009. Due to the recovery in other services items, the slowdown in the services surplus remained limited at 5.3 percent.
But when market participants can claim, as David Viniar, the Chief Financial Officer of Goldman Sachs, did in August 2007 that they “were seeing things that were 25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row” it is a sign that something must be badly wrong 4 . Wrong, that is, not with the world, but rather with market participants’ estimation of risk. A particular feature of this underestimation of risk lay in the prevalent assumption that bad shocks were likely to be uncorrelated with each other. Thus the management of Northern Rock probably believed that if they were unable to roll over their short-term wholesale funding in the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper market, then they would always be able to find an alternative source of funds in the inter-bank market. But as it transpired, the same forces that led to a shutting down of the former in August 2007 also led to the closure of the latter at all but very short maturities. By the same token, many investors thought they had purchased relatively safe securities because there were insured against default by the monolines or through the purchase of CDS contracts. But that insurance proved worthless when large correlated losses occurred and the insurers proved to have insufficiently deep pockets. A systemic financial crisis is apt to generate dysfunctions in multiple markets simultaneously, making bad tail outcomes much more likely to occur than they appear when risks are treated as largely independent.

It was maintained due to the continuation of positive values in net financial result. Addressing the non-performing loans issue has been one of the major engagements of the Bank of Albania throughout 2015. For the first time, after a four-year period, the level of nonperforming loans fell below 20%. Decisions taken by the Bank of Albania have constantly increased the pressure on the banking system, which, in turn, has added the efforts for managing non-performing loans through restructuring, execution, provisioning and their write off from the balance sheet, accordingly. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The inter-institutional initiative materialised in the Plan of Measures for Reducing NonPerforming Loans, which consists in a multidimensional action of legal, fiscal and regulatory improvements, contributed to lowering the stock of non-performing loans to 18.2 % at the end of 2015. This plan includes other steps over the course of 2016, which will render the positive result even more visible in the system. Moreover, in 2015 the banking system was tested by the psychological pressure arising from the Greek crisis; however, it passed the test successfully. On the other hand, the situation served to test the effectiveness of prudential measures that the Bank of Albania had taken in due time. 4. Banking supervision  During 2015, we have worked on further bolstering banking supervision.
It is also known that the financial system undergoes a relative expansion during such periods. Resources which have accumulated in the financial system cannot be rechannelled by the financial system to more productive sectors. BIS Review 47/1997  -3-  A stable financial system and stable prices therefore represent the normal environment that central banks are committed to pursue and maintain. A central bank that stabilizes prices increases its credibility. A central bank that protects the value of the currency also helps increase the credibility of the country. The success of the monetary policy implemented to stabilize prices depends on whether or not the financial system is stable. And the price stability and financial system stability that are the primary responsibilities of the central bank are necessary for achieving economic growth in the medium term. Let me mention some qualities that a central bank should have: · It should have continuity. Central banks should not be diverted from their permanent goal of price stability by short-term political pressures. · It should be competent. A central bank should be completely professional. It should be technically dedicated in its structure, thorough and clear in its expression, and transparent in its actions. · It should be a responsible institution. In other words, it should be an institution that is reliable and able to justify its monetary manoeuvres. These are the characteristics of a modern central bank. Central banks that have these qualities will unquestionably occupy a distinguished place in the international environment of the 21st century.

The elimination of Central Bank credit to the public sector will go far to create the confidence needed to launch the crucial struggle with inflation. Central banks are responsible for keeping prices stable as well as for ensuring that the financial system runs smoothly. A stabilized financial system and stable prices are essential conditions for steady economic growth in the medium term because only a stable financial system can provide the necessary link between savings and investments. Price stability is needed to reduce uncertainties for investors and encourage investments. In the long run, stabilizing prices is likely to increase both living standards and productivity. For this reason, the price stability that is the main goal of central banks is valid and urgent not only in the short run, but also in the long run. And once countries like ours have achieved price stability after long effort, they must continue the effort to maintain it. For central banks, price stability is a permanent goal. Inflation inflicts several burdens on a society: · Overall, it introduces uncertainty into economic decisions and profit seeking. · It reduces the discipline of price and market systems. · It has negative effects on the cost of capital. · It directs resources to unproductive activities. In periods of high inflation, investments in real estate and financial investments become more desirable. · Growth declines as inflation rises. In countries with high inflation, it has been observed that most resources are directed to the financial system.
(2) Percentage of respondents who believe that inflation will rise "much" in the next twelve months. (3) Number above (below) 50 points denotes higher (lower) costs three month ahead. Fuentes: Adimark, Banco Central de Chile y Universidad Adolfo Ibañez/Icare. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Table 1 Economic growth and current account (annual change, percent) 2009  2010  2011 ( f )  GDP National income  -1.7 -1.9  5.2 15.7  6.0 - 7.0 6.9  Domestic demand Domestic demand (w/o inventory change) Gross fixed capital formation T otal consumption Goods and services exports Goods and services imports  -5.9 -2.9 -15.9 1.9 -6.4 -14.6  16.4 11.5 18.8 9.3 1.9 29.5  8.5 9.2 11.9 8.3 7.1 11.0  1.6  1.9  0.0  2012 (f) IPoM IPoM jun. mar. 11 11  CF may. 11  Current account (percent of GDP) (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile. Table 2  World growth  (annual change, percent) Average 00-08  2009  2010 (e)  2011 (f) IPoM IPoM jun. mar. 11 11  CF may.

In addition, inflation figures have increased further in several countries, but, the same as in Chile, the widespread concerns we saw early this year over the future of the inflation scenario have eased. In the external scenario, unlike previous Monetary Policy Reports, this time projections match market consensus, because the latter were revised downward. On aggregate, world growth forecasts for the next two years are unchanged from March. However, there are significant changes in its breakdown. World GDP will grow slightly more than 4% in the two-year period 2011–2012, with a milder expansion of the United States and Japan, which will be offset by somewhat faster growth in emerging economies (table 2). Perceived weakness in the developed world has affected commodity prices, which stopped increasing as fast as they had since mid 2010, and there have been some revisions in the margin. They are still in record highs, however, mainly obeying to strong demand in emerging economies and some supply-side problems (figure 3). The WTI oil barrel hit a high of $ in late April, then it fell, and at the closing of this Report it is somewhat below $ Food prices, according to the FAO aggregate index, peaked in February, and have  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  fluctuated around that level since. The baseline scenario assumes that commodity prices will remain fairly constant over the next two years. The interest rate differential between developed and emerging economies has continued to widen at all maturities (figure 4).