samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Accordingly, the behavior of the labor market must be closely monitored in order to prevent the incubation of inflationary pressures. The evolution of output and demand is also important in this setting. If they keep on growing as strongly as they did in the first quarter, an over-utilization of installed capacity may result, generating inflationary pressures. We have paid particular attention to consumption; however, it is unlikely that the current dynamism can be sustained very long. From a longer perspective, the recent increase in consumption may be responding to a recovery from the crisis of 2008–2009 and the earthquake and tsunami of 2010. Estimates of the ratios between consumption, income and their trend levels show no significant differences (figure 11). In addition, a substantial part of the consumption components that show the larger increases – durables and clothing – is generally of imported origin, so a lower exchange rate favors consumption and replacement, especially considering that their rate of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  depreciation may have accelerated in tandem with technological change. This is compounded by the low prices of these goods in dollars. Meanwhile, growth in consumer credit, although showing a higher velocity in the margin, has not posted any increases like the ones observed in previous expansion phases or in other emerging economies (figure 12). About the implications of credit behavior, the IEF states that, so far, indebtedness has not risen above its long-term trend.

The most outstanding development of the past several months has been the attenuation of some of the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  inflationary risks then identified. International commodity prices ceased to increase and the propagation of specific price shocks has been limited. This and monetary policy decisions have collaborated to ease fears of a further inflationary acceleration that we felt in March. Accordingly, private inflation expectations show a decline in the last two months, although some remain above the target (figure 2). First-quarter data showed a fast expansion of domestic output and demand, exceeding March’s expectations. Partial indicators for the second quarter reflect an economy that continues to grow strongly but shows some recent moderation. Worth noting is the strong dynamism of private consumption and, to a lesser extent, the machinery and equipment component of investment. Consumption evolves in line with fundamentals, particularly the increase in household income, given that both employment and wages continue on the rise. Financial conditions are still favorable. The baseline scenario assumes that GDP will grow this year between 6 percent and 7 percent. This range is higher than foreseen in March, consistently with the upward bias then identified. This higher growth forecast is based on actual first-quarter figures that exceeded estimates. For the rest of the year, the pace of expansion of demand will moderate as forecast in March. In particular, the speed of growth in the GDP of sectors other than natural resources will quickly approach the trend rate, which is still estimated at five percent.
Beyond that our major banks will need to strengthen their capital base further. For example, large international banks will be subject to new internationally-agreed requirements for systemically-important firms. Other UK-focussed retail banks will need to meet the requirements set by the Vickers commission for “ringfenced” banks. Our task will be to manage the transition from the threshold to the end point in a gradual way that supports continued confidence in growth. Using all the Bank of England’s tools to secure a sustainable recovery A recovering banking sector, coupled with persistently low interest rates and new government programmes, may lead to concern that the seeds are being sown for a new cycle in the housing market. The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase is up by 20% on a year ago, while house prices have risen by 5% over the same period – and by more than that in some parts of the country. That must be kept in perspective, however. Mortgage approvals are currently running at only a little more than half, and transactions a little more than two-thirds, of pre-crisis levels. Households’ debt servicing costs relative to income are below their 20-year average, and houses cost the same relative to earnings as they did in 2003. Nevertheless, the Bank of England is acutely aware of the risk of unsustainable credit and house price growth and will be monitoring it closely.

Dear Audience, SAMA undertakes annual supervisory visits to insurance companies to make sure that they operate efficiently and professionally and that they fulfill technical and regulatory requirements to ensure better profitability and customers’ satisfaction. SAMA also regularly monitors soundness of insurance companies’ financial positions to ensure that they are able to meet their contractual obligations. SAMA will continue to exert supervisory and control efforts using all means to ensure the optimality of insurance operations. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Dear Audience, Insurance industry has progressed well in recent years as its contribution has grown equivalent to one percent of GDP in 2010. Total estimated written premiums have increased by 12.4 percent to Rls 16.41 in 2010 from Rls 14.6 percent in 2009. This clearly indicates growing awareness about various insurance products including public insurance products, health insurance and protection and savings insurance by individuals and various organizations operating in the Kingdom. Insurance claims are projected to have reached Rls 4.7 billion in 2010 compared to Rls 5.8 billion in 2009. Insurance claims that are made against damages are integral part of insurance activities. They contribute to reassuring, stabilizing, and securing individuals and organizations. Recent rainfalls that had caused substantial losses in the city of Jeddah have proved the importance of insurance and its benefits and compensations for property losses. SAMA has directed all insurance entities to promptly compensate customers according to their insurance policies, and facilitate procedures for receiving claims and processing them.
5 In the end, the rescue failed because we had no willing and capable merger partner able to provide the necessary commitments to stabilize Lehman. And, lest there is confusion on the point, this would be true no matter who was financing the acquisition of Lehman’s illiquid assets, the counterparties or the New York Fed. As of that Friday, there were two prospective Lehman acquirers: Bank of America and Barclays. On Saturday, September 13, Bank of America abandoned the potential acquisition of Lehman and reached an agreement to acquire Merrill Lynch. Barclays was the only remaining suitor. On Sunday, September 14, with the consortium financing committed, we learned for the first time that Barclays would not be able to deliver a key document to carry the merger to conclusion: a guarantee of Lehman’s trading obligations between the signing of the merger agreement and its closing. The Bear Stearns transaction taught us the importance of the guarantee to a successful rescue. A guarantee maintains the ability of the troubled company to operate as a going concern and, thus, preserves value. It does this by providing protection to counterparties during an especially vulnerable period – the period between merger contract and merger closing. Without such a guarantee, the creditors and counterparties of the firm would be at risk in the event that the merger fell apart because of a failed shareholder vote or some other contingency. Consequently, as a market matter, the guarantee is an indispensable part of any such rescue operation.

There is no option for financial institutions but to be able to deliver and ensure the integrity of their services – banking, payments, insurance or takaful, in dealing with customers – digitally or online during these times. The road is thus wide open for fintech. In a not so distant future, we can expect that fintech will be part of the mainstream, perhaps even becoming the primary mode of delivery for financial services, no longer requiring strategising and planning on how we could fully embrace it in conferences and dialogues like we will be doing today. Before I conclude I would like to congratulate ISRA for their development of the I-FIKR App, which 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  will be launched during the event. The App certainly fits well with the digitalisation of the Islamic finance knowledge of the Islamic finance industry. We hope to see it as another home-grown product that will contribute further toward the advancement of the Islamic finance Industry. Finally, once again I would like to thank and commend ISRA for organising the Islamic Fintech Dialogue 2020. Events such as this provide us an opportunity to take a step away, allowing us the space to focus on key issues and challenges which I hope will inspire us to improve on our vision and strategies for innovative transformation in Islamic finance. Over the course of this 2day event, with the array of speakers and moderators, I am confident this will be achieved.
In addition to a favourable environment for Norwegian exports, Norwegian importers have gained access to new markets in central Europe and Asia which offer substantially cheaper consumer goods. As a result, Norway’s terms of trade have improved appreciably over the last few years. 6  BIS Review 37/2008  A second characteristic of this upturn is that productivity growth has been unusually high, resulting in lower production costs. The business sector has been quick to adapt and change, and to make use of new technology that is available in an international market. Banks and other service sectors, in particular, have outperformed other countries in this respect. This is probably due to the modernisation of the economy through the 1980s and 1990s, which resulted in more efficient markets. A third characteristic has been an ample supply of labour, which has boosted output growth. Over the past two years, an increase in labour force participation and high inward labour migration has provided room for continued high growth. In both 2006 and 2007, the number  BIS Review 37/2008  7  of employed increased by over 3 per cent. The number employed increased by 93 000 persons between 2006 and 2007, the highest increase over the past few decades. The sharp growth in employment has partly been reflected in a decline in unemployment and an increase in the labour supply. This is due to inflows of foreign labour and increased labour participation among the existing population. Labour force participation in the age group 15-74 has never been higher.

By setting up the Pension Fund, we have separated the extraction of oil and gas from the actual spending of the petroleum revenues. This has probably resulted in higher production of oil and gas over the past two decades. 14  BIS Review 37/2008  The Pension Fund was formally established in 1990, but it was not until 1996 that the first allocation – NOK 2 billion – was made to the Fund. Since then, it has grown to around NOK 2 trillion (well above USD 350 billion). The Fund is fully integrated with the government budget, and the same priorities are imposed on spending from the Fund as on any other government spending. This means that the entire petroleum revenues, as well as the return, go into the Fund. Then, as part of the budget resolution, the Storting decides on an annual transfer from the Fund to cover the government budget deficit. This procedure effectively prohibits use of the capital in the Fund for purposes not considered sufficiently important to be prioritised in the regular budget process. BIS Review 37/2008  15  The fiscal rule states that the Government is to spend – as an annual average through the business cycle – the expected real return on the Fund, estimated at 4 per cent. This cyclically adjusted transfer is estimated at a good NOK 80 billion this year – that is around 10 per cent of public expenditure. It is estimated that the transfer will increase in the years ahead.
Credit as a burden for an entire economy  The examples show that an actual or impending default on a loan can represent a serious burden for the party concerned or even a personal tragedy. To a certain extent, this explains the negative connotations associated with debt. However, from a macroeconomic perspective, default by a single borrower does not usually pose a problem. Unless the single borrower happens to be a massively indebted state or big bank. An impending default by such a player has a far-reaching impact on the economy as a whole, as witnessed in the recent financial crisis. Debt also becomes a macroeconomic problem when a large number of economic agents help themselves too generously at the credit buffet table. Such phases of excess on the credit market usually end with a large number of borrowers encountering payment difficulties. For the rest of my presentation, I would like to concentrate on this type of debt crisis and on the costs involved. Empirical literature indicates that recessions run particularly deep when they are connected with just such a debt crisis (cf. slide 9). Moreover, the subsequent economic recovery tends to be sluggish. This applies all the more when the debt crisis also hits the banking sector. 9 Why is this so? In a debt crisis following a credit boom, not just a few, but a large number of households and companies face payment difficulties and have less income and assets at their disposal.

(2016), Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: are costs larger also with less effective macroprudential policy?, IMF Working Paper, 16/3, January. Taylor, A. (2015), Credit, financial stability, and the macroeconomy, NBER Working Paper, 21039, March. Tinbergen, J. (1956), Economic policy: principles and design, North-Holland. Page 16/16  Credit, debt and growth  Fritz Zurbrügg Vice Chairman of the Governing Board Swiss National Bank Collegium generale Berne, 1 November 2017  Debt vs. credit  Debt:  debere = to owe  Credit:  credere = to believe, trust creditum = that which is entrusted in good faith  2  1 November 2017  Collegium generale | Fritz Zurbrügg | © Swiss National Bank  Contents  Part 1: Why are loans useful from an economic perspective? Part 2: Under what circumstances is lending detrimental to an economy? Part 3: What role do central banks play in the credit cycle? 3  1 November 2017  Collegium generale | Fritz Zurbrügg | © Swiss National Bank  Part 1: Why are loans useful from an economic perspective?
Third, there is also an urgent need to improve the functioning of the current fiscal policy framework, so that it delivers an aggregate stance that is consistent with national constraints and the needs of the euro area as a whole. On the one hand, the current fiscal policy coordination device, the Stability and Growth Pact, has not stood the test of time very well. Our fiscal rules have proven to be hard to enforce in a timely manner, not least because of their complexity, and have also been unable to avoid procyclical fiscal policies at the national level. On the other hand, and more importantly, the past decade has shown us that lacking a centralised fiscal tool to target an appropriate euro area macroeconomic policy stance is a serious limitation for the functioning of our monetary area. I strongly believe that a central fiscal capacity at euro area level could contribute, in particular, not only to tackling asymmetric, country specific shocks, but also to macroeconomic stabilisation. In this respect, monetary policy would not become overburdened, as it might be in the current economic juncture. Finally, let me advocate the need to explore the introduction of a common safe asset for the euro area. In my view, a well-designed safe asset would contribute significantly to addressing some of the root causes of the euro area’s institutional weaknesses. In particular, it could increase the effectiveness of monetary policy, improve financial integration and complete the Banking and Capital Markets Union, by breaking the banksovereign doom loop and facilitating diversification.

4  BIS Review 124/2006  So while there are some good reasons for the reduction in financial risk premia significant risks do remain. The question is how well are they priced? Are there any reasons for thinking that markets may be underpricing risk? I think there may be. Low risk premia and low volatility Sustained low economic and financial market volatility is bound to have implications for the level of compensation for risk that investors require in asset prices. In theory if assets become fundamentally less risky, then investors should receive a capital gain but should accept a lower future rate of return. If there have been signs of the capital gains, it is less clear that investors have revised down their expectations of rates of return on their portfolios. Indeed the pressure is to go beyond performing relatively well against your peers and to produce absolute returns. This has been fuelling a fierce search for yield and for ‘excess returns’ by asset managers who have to respond to this demand. Delivering on such a commitment in a world of low volatility takes impressive stock picking skills; buying or selling mis-priced assets and spotting emerging trends before the rest of the market. Clearly not everyone can beat the market. Some asset managers will be able to do so for a while either through luck or good judgement and their challenge is to keep ahead – often with the extra funds that their performance has attracted. Their competitors face added pressure to catch up.
In times of uncertainty investors often prefer to buy safe assets and sell those that are higher risk, even if the latter have a higher return. So when the situation becomes uncertain the demand for government securities with a short duration, such as treasury bills, usually increases. At the same time the demand for less liquid securities considered to have a higher risk declines. As an example, in the United States they have been selling off mortgage bonds, as these have been regarded as particularly high-risk investments as a result of the US mortgage crisis. But even in Sweden there has been a strong demand for treasury bills with a short duration, at the same time as the supply of mortgage bonds has increased. This has occurred despite the Swedish mortgage bonds having a very high credit rating. Normally these have an interest rate just marginally higher than the rate for treasury bonds with a corresponding duration. However, recently the interest rate differentials between these securities have been much higher. Measures to improve the functioning of the markets The Swedish National Debt Office and the Riksbank have maintained a regular dialogue regarding the money and bond markets and the need to counteract the effects of the US financial crisis.

But that is the reality of development – we will continuously be called upon to respond to new and unfamiliar challenges and to effectuate changes wherever we can. I am optimistic that we can all contribute to do our part to make the change that is required. Global awareness on climate change and its risks being showcased today and during this Climate Week is reflective of a world that is determined to rise to the immense challenges before us. Thank you again to the organiser of this event and to all participants. I look forward to more meaningful engagements on this issue as we continue this onward march for a better life and a better future for our children and for mankind. Thank you. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
In compliance with the strategy for targeting of the nominal exchange rate of the Denar against the Deutsche Mark, the NBRM plans to purchase foreign currency on the foreign exchange market in the net amount of USD 29.0 million in 2001 in order to preserve the exchange rate of the Denar at the targeted level. The reserve money issuance based on foreign exchange transactions of the Central Bank will be supported through further increment of the government deposits with the NBRM. The support of the monetary policy by the fiscal policy, through the increase in the government deposits with the NBRM, will enable the reserve money increase to be aimed at acceleration of the banks’ credit activities. Monetary regulation instruments In 2001, it is projected NBRM to continue using indirect, market - orientated instruments for monetary regulation. The most utilized instrument will be the CB bills auction, which will serve for dynamic regulation of the liquidity of the banking sector. Regarding the changes in the monetary regulation instruments, it should be pointed out that the fulfillment of some criteria incorporated in the IMF arrangement will be carried out in a qualitatively different environment. Namely, the absence of direct instruments, as credit ceilings for the banks, will make things more difficult for the Central Bank, nevertheless it remains firmly determined to use indirect monetary regulation instruments, exclusively. Non-Government sector deposits It is projected that the upward trend in bank deposits will continue in 2001.

Another important piece of our bank culture efforts is the Mandatory Reference Checking Scheme (or in short, MRC Scheme). We and the industry both realise that no matter how hard one tries to encourage desirable staff behaviour through a proper incentive system, and as much as we hope that bank staff will always behave with integrity, we cannot naively assume that this will always happen. And we all know that there have been cases where staff, having engaged in misconduct at one bank, may move to another one without disclosing the earlier episode to the new employer. And in that manner, the risk of misconduct is transmitted within the system. Many banking supervisors around the world want to tackle this “rolling bad apples” phenomenon. But this matter can hardly be dealt with by individual banks working alone. Instead, the banking community needs to work together. 11. For this, the banking industry has been working closely with the HKMA over the past two years. And it is encouraging to see that the MRC Scheme was finalised in May this year. 12. Since there is a panel session to talk about this Scheme later today, I won’t go into details here. Just briefly, under the MRC Scheme, all banks will share and obtain conduct-specific reference information about prospective employees using a common protocol. The protocol will cover seven years prior to the application for the position, so that the recruiting institution can make a more informed employment decision. 13.