samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Table 1 Domestic scenario (annual change, percent)  2014  GDP National income Domestic demand Domestic demand (w/o inventory change) Gross fixed capital formation Total consumption Goods and services exports Goods and services imports Current account (% of GDP) Gross national savings (% of GDP) Nominal gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)  2015  1.9 2.1 -0.3 1.1 -4.2 2.8 1.1 -5.7 -1.3 20.9 23.0  2.1 1.1 1.8 1.3 -1.5 2.2 -1.9 -2.8 -2.1 20.4 22.7  2016 (f) Mar'16 Report  Jun'16 Report  2017 (f) Mar'16 Report  1.25-2.25 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.8 0.6 -0.6 -2.5 19.9 22.6  1.25-2.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 -2.4 2.1 1.3 -1.6 -2.2 19.5 22.0  2.0-3.0 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 -2.0 20.2 22.1  Jun'16 Report 2.0-3.0 2.2 2.4 2.1 0.9 2.4 2.1 2.2 -2.1 19.5 21.6  (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile. 10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 5 Labor market (percent)  8  8  6  6 Unemployment rate  4  4 Salaried employment (y/y)  2  2  0  0 11  12  13  14  15  16  Source: National Statistics Institute (INE).

Cambodia is considered a small open economy, one which realized average GDP growth of about 10% from 2005 to 2008 and gradually increased the level of international reserves to a level which can ensure 3.8 months of imports. The financial system in Cambodia, which is dominated by the banking sector, is considered strong. This is reflected in figures from the end of 2007 which show that total banking assets increased by 53.6%, bank deposits rose by 59.4%, and loans to the private sector went up by 52%. However, with the global financial crisis that has affected most of the continents, Cambodia’s total banking assets declined a bit in the last quarter of 2008 and the economy is expected to have very little growth in 2009. The National Bank of Cambodia still manages its reserves in a conservative manner, with principle strategies prioritized by: first, safety; second, liquidity; and third, returns. This conservative strategy is appropriate in light of the current financial turmoil. But with gradual increases of reserves, one’s portfolio should be well diversified and reserve managers should have a solid risk management and analytical skills. Therefore, capacity building needs to be continuously strengthened. BIS is the best counterpart in capacity building for central banks, especially for the National Bank of Cambodia. Every year BIS provides on-site training to our reserve managers and I hope the BIS continue providing this kind of training and cooperation in the future.
The future of the Spanish economy hinges greatly on these policies, not only in the long run but also in the more immediate term. The priority of these reforms should be to generate a rapid and deep-seated change in the prevailing labour market trends. That requires altering a good number of the institutions that currently regulate this market. In particular, innovative hiring arrangements are needed to facilitate job creation and to overcome the marked segmentation currently in place which has adverse consequences for employee training, job stability and for efficiency and equality in the economy. In turn, collective bargaining should be reformed so that internal organisation and labour costs are better tailored to the specific situation of each company and to cyclical developments, but also so as to equip firms with the flexibility they need to increase productivity. But there are other measures we should not rule out, even though their effects may take longer to materialise. This is the case, firstly, with education. Undoubtedly, improving education is the most important issue pending for economic growth in Spain. True, we have made progress in some areas; but it is no less true that there are incipient signs that the increase in the level of educational attainment of the workforce observed in the second half of the 20th century is slowing. The reform of the education system, moreover, would complement that of the labour market.

Monetary policy will, therefore, need to be alert to the information contained in a wide range of asset prices, to be forward-looking in its aim of maintaining low and stable inflation, and to be ready to respond to changes in the signposts. The remarkable degree of stability that the UK economy has enjoyed over the past decade has been less evident over the past twelve months. Growth slowed and inflation rose above target. But after a period driving along a smooth new highway, a change to a more challenging road surface does not, as I said recently to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, mean that the wheels are coming off the economy; rather, it tells us that there are somewhat more and somewhat larger bumps on the road. Monetary policy can try to avoid some of the worst bumps, but it cannot ensure a flat road surface. Nevertheless, growth has picked up and inflation has fallen back close to its 2% target. Our central view remains one of steady growth and low inflation. But there are risks to that central view emanating from the rest of the world and we shall watch developments in world capital markets carefully. By keeping inflation close to the target, and so doing what it can to maintain economic stability, the Monetary Policy Committee aims to allow you and other businesses to follow the signposts which guide a market economy.
For another, backstop support from the CCFs has been restricted to investment-grade issuers and fallen angels, thus limiting the incentive to overleverage.17 Connecting the Dots To conclude, I’d like to turn from the execution details of these programs to the bigger picture of outcomes in the economy. As I noted at the outset of my remarks, the linkages between capital markets and employment are critical to understanding the purpose of the CCFs. Large companies rely on capital markets to secure ongoing financing to maintain their businesses and meet payrolls. By supporting companies’ access to funding, firms employing millions of Americans are in a better position to keep workers on payrolls and to hire them back as the economy continues to recover. https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2020/sin201020  3/5  20/10/2020  The Federal Reserve’s Corporate Credit Facilities: Why, How, and For Whom - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK  Let me make three observations in this regard. First, companies that issue public bonds tend to be large employers. U.S. companies with bonds that were due to mature this year and next employ more than 21 million people. Those that have accessed corporate bond markets since March employ more than 16 million people. Without seeking to minimize the stress on those households that have experienced unemployment, I want to highlight that the vast majority of jobs at large corporations have been maintained. Second, companies that issue public bonds tend to generate large investments.

In revising the existing framework on corporate governance, we intend to take the opportunity to address this issue by improving how we capture board roles and responsibilities at the organisational level,  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  taking into account all the things that we currently ask boards to do. This will reduce the need for the Bank to direct matters that boards must approve in specific business areas. It does not however, obviate the need for boards to be fully engaged in approving core policies such as risk and capital management strategies. In other areas, the board should determine matters that are reserved for its decision, and the Bank will look to the quality of engagement with management, escalation of issues to the board and the means by which boards obtain assurance on matters that it does not specifically approve. This will be reflected in our assessment of the quality of oversight and risk control functions of the insurer. I hope that these insights to some of the Bank’s current policy considerations will provoke reflections of your own on how your organisations are currently organised and positioned to cope with an environment that will only become more challenging on various fronts. We have much work still to do and over the course of the coming months, we will be seeking industry feedback on these issues. We also have our own expectations of the industry.
On behalf of the Hong Kong SAR Government, I extend a warm welcome to all of you who are visiting Hong Kong from overseas, particularly those who are here for the first time: I hope that this will be an enjoyable and memorable stay. The broad implications of China’s accession to the WTO What will China’s accession to the WTO mean for China and the rest of the world? For China - which is already the world’s ninth largest trading entity - it will mean more external trade, and external trade of a better quality. There will be substantial tariff reductions among China’s existing trading partners and there will be access to more trading partners for China. At the same time, China will be cutting its tariffs on a broad range of products, from agricultural to industrial. Tariff reductions allow comparative advantage greater play. They will help eliminate trade distortions and facilitate more efficient allocation of resources among the trading partners, thus further promoting economic growth globally. The World Bank’s estimates give an indication of the growth potential of China’s trade on its accession to the WTO. China’s share in world exports will double in the space of five years: from the present 3.7% to around 7.3% by 2005. China’s share in world imports is expected to rise marginally faster than its share in exports: from the present 3.4% to 7.2% in five years’ time.

The renminbi exchange rate should also be able to respond more to the underlying trends in external trade. Greater flexibility may also permit exchange rate adjustments in pursuit of other macroeconomic objectives. Should greater flexibility in renminbi be pursued, I believe that there would be advantages, in the interests of transparency and market confidence, for the mainland to set out clearly what it expects to achieve by the measure, especially in the absence of any move towards fuller convertibility. If the benefits are in doubt, or if the underlying motivation is misunderstood, 5  BIS Review 68/2000  there could be an adverse impact on general sentiment, which would be manifested in the financial markets. We all know how sensitive financial markets can be, and this sensitivity somewhat blurs the Hong Kong response to the prospect of greater flexibility in the renminbi’s exchange rate, in particular its impact on the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate. Together with the confusion between the convertibility of a currency and the flexibility in an exchange rate, this sensitivity perhaps explains the rather excited off-the-cuff response given earlier this year by the group of Hong Kong businessmen to Premier Zhu Rongji when the subject was raised in a meeting among them. As a result, there was this message to me that we in the HKMA should examine the matter carefully. We have since done so and I have, in July, provided Premier Zhu with a response, through Governor Dai Xianglong of the People’s Bank of China.
At the same time, the implementation of ambitious and far-reaching structural reforms is urgently required in the euro area to strengthen substantially its competitiveness, flexibility and longer-term growth potential. In particular, countries which have high fiscal and external deficits or which are suffering from a loss of competitiveness should rapidly carry out comprehensive economic reforms. In the case of product markets, policies that enhance competition and innovation should be vigorously pursued to facilitate productivity growth. Regarding the labour market, the priority must be to enhance wage flexibility and incentives to work, and to remove labour market rigidities. We are now at your disposal for questions. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

In some cases, the extreme private sector solution – winding-down of the troubled institution – would probably be the preferred approach. The Law on Credit Institutions together with the Bankruptcy Act provides central bank and other authorities with all necessary powers for closing down the business and letting trustees to take care of the practical aspects. The Deposit Insurance Fund will immediately reimburse all depositors within legal limits. BIS Review 63/2001  3  Of course, in other situation, different approach must be taken and a strict adherence to the former rule is not feasible. Nevertheless, the initial response would still be the private solution. One option would be the central bank to take the lead as an honest broker and bring together all private and official parties concerned. Ideally, that would result in design of ad hoc private solution in a form of merger, acquisition or emergency support. The role of central bank would effectively be the application of moral suasion, without committing public funds. However, one can and should not wholly dismiss the need for direct public intervention should it become necessary. What will be different in our case is that in case of serious trouble, the dividing line between liquidity support and capital injection would be rather blurred or these operations may even take place simultaneously, after writing down capital of the troubled institution. The need for very close coordination between the central bank, the government and supervisors is characteristic feature of this approach.
4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  •  The Code of Consumer Banking Practice commits member banks to treat their customers “fairly and reasonably”. •  A separate Private Banking Code of Conduct sets out standards for financial advisors, not only for professional competency but ethical conduct as well. The Singapore Foreign Exchange Market Committee (SFEMC), an industry association of major foreign exchange market participants, has published a guide to conduct and market practices for treasury activities. More commonly known as the Blue Book, the guide has recently been updated with instructions on the governance, requirements on professional conduct and best practices for participants in benchmark rate settings. The industry could consider going further in promoting and reinforcing ethical standards and good practices: •  Industry may want to consider a mechanism or process by which firms could be benchmarked against and held accountable to industry standards on ethical behaviour and professional conduct. •  Industry may also want to conduct periodic surveys on stakeholders’ views on risk culture, governance, and market conduct, to help identify potential blind spots and emerging areas of risk. What can firms do? But ultimately it is the financial institution that must bear responsibility for getting the culture right. This requires setting the right moral tone from the top. Many financial firms have issued values statements and codes of conduct espousing principles, norms and behaviours that apply universally across the firm.

•  We read of traders in banks circumventing internal rules to make outsized market bets that subsequently resulted in large losses for these banks. •  And in financial centres across the world, including Singapore, regulators have uncovered attempts by traders at several major global banks to manipulate key financial benchmarks used to set rates for loans and foreign exchange contracts. Little wonder that global surveys show that levels of trust in the financial industry are lower than ever. •  According to Edelman, a public relations firm, banking and financial services ranked last among 15 industries that the public trusted “to do what is right”. 1  •  In countries most affected by the financial crisis and its aftermath, levels of trust are lower still – barely 30% of the public in Europe trust their banks. 1  Edelman Trust Barometer, 2013 and 2014. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Why trust is critical to finance Financial products and transactions can be quite complex and information asymmetries often place financial institutions in a more advantageous position compared to their customers. •  Trust that the bank is sound is critical for savers to keep their monies in bank accounts and for borrowers to make long term investment decisions. •  Trust that financial advisers and insurance agents are dealing fairly is important for consumers committing large portions of their savings for a long period of time.
Policy autonomy It is now widely accepted that a broad policy toolkit and pragmatic policymaking are paramount in dealing with multiple challenges. Unconventional and unprecedented policies are no more heresy. This shift in mindset is a very welcome change. If only this mindset had persisted during the AFC, our experience in the region would have been much more positive. Experience also suggests that policy autonomy is critical in deploying measures in an environment with no precedent. Especially when the essence of the problems is domestic in nature, compounded by the specificity of each economy’s operating and legal environment, political and social structures. 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  Policy prescriptions will be least effective when it is not ‘owned’ by the domestic policy maker or when it is not independent of external influence and coercion or when policy being administered is more a reflection of ‘consensus economic’ thinking. External influence can be viewed from two aspects. External developments that transcend national boundaries; and external players that may directly or indirectly suppress domestic autonomy. The former has been greatly discussed, where financial liberalisation and globalisation have worsened the trade-offs for monetary policy to achieve its multiple domestic objectives. Some consensus has also been reached on the ways to regain autonomy, in the form of broad policy toolkit to prevent overburdening of any single policy instrument, the buildingup of buffers and instituting the necessary structural reforms that serve to fortify the economy.

Today, we are well into our ninth consecutive year our thirty-third consecutive quarter of relatively steady growth (despite having to absorb the global emerging markets financial shock of a couple of years ago) at an annual average rate of 2.8%; the number of people in employment has risen to an all-time high; the rate of unemployment, on a claimant count basis, has fallen to 3.6%, which is the lowest rate for 25 years for the UK as a whole and the lowest rate for 20 years in every individual region of the UK; and retail price inflation on the target RPIX measure has now averaged 2.7% over the past eight years, and on the standardised HICP measure is currently the lowest rate in Europe. And if you ask me today the same question - can we keep up that performance, my answer is still a cautious yes - on the same three conditions - low and stable inflation, fiscal prudence and supply-side flexibility. Now I am very well aware that some of you - perhaps many of you - thinking of your own businesses may conclude that I’m living on a different planet.
Take a simple example of an investment that provides a long, regular stream of profits interspersed with occasional large losses, such that on average you would expect it to have the same return as a safe investment – not an unreasonable characterisation it would now appear of many of the investment strategies of recent years. Over short time periods, where it is unlikely that disaster will strike, it is more likely than not that investors will come out ahead, with a high return. But over long periods, where the risk that disaster will strike at some point is higher, it is likely that the overall return will be worse than the safe investment. And, because charges are often structured so that investment managers receive more of the upside from risky behaviour than they share in the downside, they have an incentive to promote the risky investment strategy. That, allied to a massive increase in the complexity of financial products and instruments in recent years, has meant that investors have, perhaps unwittingly, aided an enormous increase in the risks being run in the financial system. Given these problems, it seems to me that regulation should aim to be simple and robust. Overly complex measures of risk and capital adequacy are rarely robust to developments that are easy neither to anticipate nor calibrate. And robust rules for regulation will of necessity need to be simple or supervisors will be lost in a morass of unnecessary detail. For the same reasons we should not expect too much of regulation.

We live in a small open economy and are forced to import inflation through our purchases of necessities from abroad. Because of this, we must trust that our trading partners will take decisive action to bring inflation down within their own borders. Iceland is now reaping the rewards of the ironbound policy formulated during its reconstruction following the 2008 financial crisis - a policy that insisted on a secure financial system with strong lines of defence against external instability. Icelandic banks have extraordinarily strong capital in historical and international context, and they are under close financial supervision. Moreover, the news from abroad confirms that merging the Central Bank and the Financial Supervisory Authority back together at the beginning of 2020 was the right decision. The merger and, in particular, the increased power the Bank has been granted in the area of financial stability have been of vital importance in ensuring that the current fluctuations in demand, interest rates, and financial conditions do not give rise to a credit bubble or excessive risk-taking in the financial sector. Iceland carries very little household, corporate, or government debt in comparison with other countries. It is clear that these conditions provide monetary policy with full flexibility to act. There are no handcuffs here. Honoured guests: I don't know whether any of you have gotten lost in the fog, found yourselves going around in circles, and been convinced that water flows upstream. I have never gotten lost in the Icelandic outback, but I have often done so in foreign megacities.