samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Projections for these repayments, drawn from the July 2017 update to our annual report that I discussed earlier, are shown in lefthand side of Panel 3. 6 / 15  BIS central bankers' speeches  The benefit of the cap, even though it is unlikely to bind, is that it limits the amount of variation in the pace at which securities, and particularly mortgages, will flow back into private hands. Recall that the left-hand figure in Panel 3 is based on rising interest rates over an ongoing economic expansion. For comparison, the right-hand figure in Panel 3 shows the projected MBS principal repayments for a scenario in which interest rates come in two percentage points below market participants’ expectations. In this scenario, the cap operates to constrain the flow of securities into the market. While such a lower-rate outcome is not a central expectation, it is certainly possible. By providing market participants some certainty that the pace of balance sheet decline will be gradual across economic scenarios, this plan should help mitigate the risk of unexpectedly sharp shifts in asset prices, liquidity, or market functioning should markets begin to put greater weight on lower interest rate scenarios. Indeed, by promoting greater confidence in the stability and liquidity of the Treasury and agency MBS markets across economic outcomes, the FOMC’s plan should result in lower risk and liquidity premia on these assets relative to normalization plans that do not promote such confidence.

4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
The mandate of the euro area’s central banks is clear on this subject and there is no reason to think that some other stray thoughts would let us deviate from our key goal. It should be stressed that the Governing Council of the European Central Bank is monitoring the economic situation very carefully and will not commit to future decisions in a form that would render the Council a prisoner of their own words. Public discussions include two extraneous arguments, based on which it has been claimed that the hands of the euro area’s central banks are tied and therefore they cannot fulfil their primary goal properly. Firstly, it has been presumed that banks’ situation in Europe is so weak that we cannot abandon the extraordinary monetary policy measures that made money supply easier for banks during the crisis. Secondly, it is claimed that until the fiscal situation of some euro area countries is not firmly under control and the new financial control mechanisms have not been implemented, central banks do not dare to focus on the threat of inflation. I do not wish to underestimate either argument. The situation in global money markets, including Europe, is not entirely risk-free yet and the leaders of Europe’s public financing are struggling to ensure that the amended fiscal framework would help avoid crises in the future. However, upon fulfilling their main goal, the euro area’s central banks are not limited by these concerns to the extent that they could or should ignore the price stability goal.

Andres Lipstok: Monetary policy will not become a prisoner Article by Mr Andres Lipstok, Governor of Bank of Estonia, published in the newspaper Postimees on 24 March 2011. *  *  *  Governor of Eesti Pank and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank Andres Lipstok says that avoidance of excessive inflation in the euro area and alleviation of inflation expectations are the best measures that the Eurosystem’s central banks can take to support the economy. Estonia has been a full member of the euro area for almost three months now. The adoption of the euro in Estonia was technically smooth and the society’s approval of the changeover has increased. The smooth changeover created suitable grounds for paying attention to what really matters – how to help ensure the stability of the euro in the future. In other words, the focus is now on the key issue – maintaining price stability in the euro area. Euro-area price stability is not an abstract and foreign concern for us. We were aware of how the reference interest rate on housing loans or the euro’s exchange rate against the dollar influence our daily lives already before the changeover. However, what people have not realised is how much the general inflation developments in the euro area affect the society’s behaviour on the whole. Surveys indicate that general developments in the euro area have a greater impact on the inflation expectations of people who live in the single currency area than one might assume.
I would also like to thank representatives from Aflatoun and CentiQ in the Netherlands and all the policymakers who are participating as speakers and experts at this forum. On that note, I wish all of you a productive forum over the next two days. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

Luis de Guindos: Interview with El Mundo Interview with Mr Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, and El Mundo, conducted by Mr Pablo Rodríguez Suanzes on 25 November 2019 and published on 2 December 2019. * * *  How are you finding life in Frankfurt? Frankfurt is a nice city, I like it. The ECB is the most important institution in the framework of the EU, and of the euro area in particular. Exposure to the public is very different to when you’re in government. Here, the relationship is mainly with the European Parliament, through hearings, and with the public, through speeches. Is my life better? It’s different. How do you feel about not being able to speak as freely as before? I can keep speaking normally. I still attend the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN); each week, we have discussions in various forums on issues around monetary and economic policy and financial stability. So I have something to offer, but my contributions aren’t political. Do you miss it? I don’t miss anything. That was my job for six years. I’m not at all bored here. When and why did you decide you wanted to try to become the Vice-President of the ECB? I wanted to leave the government at the end of its first term. I spoke to President Rajoy and we said it could be a possibility, and it was very attractive to me. It’s the most important institution in the euro area, very prestigious.
Under these circumstances, public authorities undertook a series of actions to support the banking sector, in particular the following:   Approval of a law which increased the insured amount of public deposits;    Decisions of the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania to limit bank exposure against their foreign bank owner groups and suspend the distribution of dividend for banks during 2008 and 2009;    Implementation of a number of other decisions taken by the Bank of Albania in relation to the establishment of more easing conditions to provide liquidity in the inter-bank market; and    Further improvement of the regulatory supervisory framework, aiming at maintaining banking activity stability. Overall, during this stage, the Bank of Albania has played an essential role for the identification of short-term problems of the banking sector and their immediate addressing. This process was necessary to identify later longer-term implications on the banking activity performance and further alignment of the supervisory framework. Banking activity performance over the past two years, has shown that these measures proved to be effective and the Albanian banking system overcame with success the global crisis effects. The withdrawal of publics deposits from the banking sector was staunched at the end of 2009 Q1 and, from that moment, their return to the banks continues consistently. The current financial situation continues to be stable, overall, compared with previous periods, with a firm public confidence and satisfactory condition of liquidity and capitalisation.

The stress tests of the banking sector against unfavourable potential developments – economic and financial ones – indicate that the banking system is capable of coping with them. Banking activity performance during this period has reflected the overall performance of the economy. During the last two years, albeit a negative output gap, the country’s economy has continued its positive growth in the range of 3.5–4.5 per cent. Other macroeconomic indicators have ranged within admissible and expectable values. We believe that this financial and macroeconomic stability reflects the commitment and coordination of core economic policies, the monetary and fiscal policies, over the time. They will continue to support the solid economic growth further on, in light of the world’s economy resurgence. Dear participants, ladies and gentlemen, The world’s financial system faced an extraordinary crisis. Equally extraordinary were the measures that were taken. Naturally, its effects will continue to be present in the global economy, while decisionmakers, experts and scholars will continue to analyse the causes and lessons that may be drawn from it. Taking advantage of being present in this panel of supervisors, I would like to list some of our conclusions:   Macroprudential supervision policies constitute an essential argument of recent discussions. The role of the central bank is a part of them, especially in terms of its  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  preventive role.
When the financial crisis hit Europe, GDP in the Baltic region fell sharply as foreign investors withdrew and demand for exports fell. And even if the global financial crisis had not arrived when it did, a combination of lax fiscal policies and rapid growth in wages and lending in the Baltics meant that the economies were overheating and were not on a sustainable path. In addition, global financial inter-linkages produced serious negative externalities for Sweden and many other countries. This was a situation we had not encountered before. To some extent, the reliance on international funding markets and exposure to the rapidlyexpanding Baltic region were vulnerabilities that could have been identified before the crisis. It is now clear that in the past financial regulation and supervision did not function satisfactorily in Sweden and in many other countries. Macro-prudential policy is needed Prior to the crisis, financial regulation focused excessively on individual institutions under the erroneous assumption that the system would remain stable as long as the individual institutions were stable. Consequently, processes that create risks on the system-wide level were ignored. One important lesson from the global crisis is that we need to include more explicit systemic-risk preventive regulations, or macro-prudential regulation, in the regulatory framework. The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) and the Financial Stability Oversight Council in the United States are leading the development of formalized macro-prudential policy arrangements. Many other countries, Sweden included, are thinking seriously about how to implement and conduct macro-prudential policy in their jurisdictions.

Mexico’s transformation from a nation racked by repeated financial crises to one enjoying healthy economic growth, low inflation, and remarkable financial stability owes in no small part to tireless efforts of Dr Carstens and his colleagues in central bank and Mexican government. 7. I have had the privilege of interacting with Agustin at many international meetings over the last two years, at the BIS, IMF, FSB, and others. When Agustin speaks, people listen. His interventions at meetings are always insightful – balanced, thoughtful, and reasonable. He is an articulate spokesperson for the challenges and concerns of emerging market economies. And occasionally a well-meaning and constructive critic of policies in the advanced economies. And Agustin does all this with an abundance of grace, courtesy, and respect for everyone around him – a gentleman even by the high standards of central bankers. 8. Ladies and gentlemen, please join me in warmly welcoming Dr Agustin Carstens. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1
This enabled a fast transmission of monetary policy signals to the interbank and deposit markets. Also, the increase in deficit and public debt was absorbed by the liquidity generated in the domestic financial market. Against the backdrop of a high demand for investment in government securities, their yields dropped significantly for all maturities. All these developments created premises for credit interest rates to decline in 2013. Monetary indicators were largely in line with the real-economy developments. The annual money supply growth slowed down during the year. This slowdown reflected the weak demand for borrowing by the private sector, especially businesses. Lending to the private sector started to contract in the second half of the year. At the end of the year, the loan portfolio stood 1.4% lower than a year earlier. Similar to developments in the other countries in the region, this performance was influenced by economic agents’ reluctance to spend and invest, and banks’ more conservative lending policies. I will dwell on lending issues and measures taken by the Bank of Albania to boost lending in the following. Summing up the performance of the economy for 2013, aggregate demand remained weak and economic growth was low but below potential. This economic slowdown had serious implications for the economy’s health and balances. It affected public finances, which saw increase in budget deficit and public debt. Albanian businesses faced financial constraints and banks’ balance sheets suffered from worsened non-performing loan portfolios. It also led to a higher unemployment rate and slower rise in wages and prices.

The normal functioning of the banking system relies on a safe and effective payment infrastructure, which, in Albania, is operated by the central bank. Over 2013, the Bank of Albania focused its efforts on improving AIPS and AECH systems. Moreover, in order to render the financial markets infrastructure complete, we are working to establish the Central System for the Settlement and Registration of Securities. This system will provide possibilities for the further development of the secondary market and will guarantee the settlement of transactions in this market, conform to international standards. In 2013, the approval of the law “On Payment System” was finalised. This law provides a special legal framework for regulating, licencing and overseeing payment systems by the Bank of Albania. It aims at minimising the systemic risk, which is related to the participation in payment and security settlement systems, and risks related to the insolvency of participants in the system. The passing of this Law implies the liberalisation of the payment systems market through the establishment of private payment systems. Furthermore, to encourage the use of electronic payment instruments and reduce the use of cash in the economy, the Bank of Albania has adopted the regulatory framework for using these instruments, by reflecting the principles of the relevant EU directive.
For a start, the adoption of the euro should not involve any major regime shift. In fact, since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the Maltese lira has been pegged to a basket of major currencies. Since then the lira was only devalued once, in the wake of the ERM crisis in 1992. Apart from that episode, the currency has enjoyed relative stability. In each of the past five years, for example, fluctuations in the euro/lira rate have moved within a band of between 1.4% and 3.3% around the average rate for the year. The fact that the currency peg has been successfully maintained for so long - as testified by the underlying upward trend in the external reserves, which today represent nine months of imports suggests that this is a viable exchange rate regime for Malta. The choice of a fixed exchange rate as the intermediate target of monetary policy is dictated by the key characteristics of the economy. First, Malta’s size implies that it is a price taker and cannot hope to influence its terms of trade through nominal exchange rate movements. In addition, because of the economy’s openness, the conduct of monetary policy must take the exchange rate into account.

BIS Review 16/2004  3  Simultaneously with the need to contribute to the promotion of economic convergence within the EMU parameters, our central banks are engaged in the task of integrating themselves into the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). The challenge here is multifaceted in that it involves infrastructural and organisational changes that profoundly affect not only the central bank and the financial markets, but also the players in those markets. The technical aspects of ESCB membership represent a special challenge for small acceding countries like Malta. The domestic financial markets in most of our countries are small and less liquid that those of existing EU members, and typically less sophisticated. And yet, upon membership we will be expected to function on the same level as the long-standing and, in most cases, larger members of the System. Ensuring that the transition takes place with the least possible disruption has entailed a comprehensive reform of institutions and operating systems. For example, a real time gross settlement payment system (RTGS) has been put in place instead of the existing payment infrastructure. The standards of the securities settlement system have been upgraded to a fully ESCB-compliant ‘delivery versus payment’ system, which ensures the risk-free transfer of collateral and, where necessary, of securities. Cross-border payment systems have been adapted to ensure that they meet today’s ‘straight through processing’ standards. Similarly, with regard to statistics there has been an overhaul of methodologies and databases.
Ravi Menon: MAS’ Annual Report 2015/16 Remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at MAS’ Annual Report 2015/16 Media Conference, Singapore, 25 July 2016. *  *  *  Good morning. Welcome to MAS’ annual report media conference. Economic growth The global economy is headed for another year of lacklustre growth. Recovery in the advanced economies is hesitant and uneven. Economic activity is slowing in the emerging market economies. The IMF has just released its latest projection for global GDP growth in 2016 – at 3.1%. This is the same as last year. MAS is closely watching these developments, especially three factors that are key to the growth outcomes this year: one, Brexit and its implications; two, the shape of the recovery in the US economy; and three, slowdown in the Chinese economy. The UK referendum vote to exit the EU will have an impact along several dimensions: first, on financial markets and possible consequences for financial stability; two, on investment and GDP growth in the UK, with potential spill-overs to the EU and beyond; and three, on political and social developments, and what they mean for globalisation. Brexit’s impact has been most keenly felt so far in the financial markets. This is to be expected as prices need to adjust to reflect the new reality of a UK that is outside the EU. So, exchange rates, bond yields, and equity prices have all seen sharp movements as markets search for a new equilibrium.

MAS, MOF, and Ministry of National Development will continue to keep a close watch over developments in the property market. Mas’ financial performance MAS’ profit and loss position in the financial year 2015–16 (FY2015/16) showed a profit of $ In the financial year 2014–15 (FY2014/15), MAS recorded a profit of $ billion. Holding the $ exchange rate constant to strip out currency translation effects, foreign investment gains amounted to $ billion in FY2015/16, compared to $ billion in FY2014/15. The lower foreign investment gains reflected the decline in global equity markets in FY2015/16. The financial centre: robust and resilient Singapore’s financial centre has grown handsomely in recent years and is today regarded as one of the top five centres in the world. MAS’ role is to work closely with the industry to ensure that Singapore’s financial centre is robust and resilient; clean and trusted; and dynamic and purposeful. Let me speak briefly on each of these dimensions. Our banks and the financial sector remain robust and resilient despite the challenging global economic conditions. The banking system’s ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) was 1.7% in the first quarter,, up from 1.3% a year ago. Exposures to regional economies and the oil and gas industries, which are experiencing slowdowns, have contributed to this rise in NPLs. This is to be expected: when economic conditions weaken, it is only natural that NPLs will rise. What is important is that the NPL ratio remains low and banks are resilient against any rise in NPLs.
Zdeněk Tůma: The forecasting process from the perspective of a new EU member Speech by Mr Zdeněk Tůma, Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the Bundesbank's Eighth Spring conference - New developments in Economic Forecasting, Eltville, 5 May 2006. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues, It is my pleasure to be here tonight to share with you some thoughts on the forecasting process at central banks, and in particular at the Czech National Bank as an example of a new EU member state. It is generally recognised that central bank policies must be forward-looking. As emphasised by Milton Friedman, for example, there are long lags between monetary policy actions and their impact on the economy. This means that policies responding only to the current state of the economy might miss turning points and be pro-cyclical rather than stabilising. Therefore, central banks have always been among the leaders in the macroeconomic forecasting field. David Hendry in his recent book on forecasting aptly remarks that whereas a failure in the stochastic part of the forecast is still something you can live with, a failure in forecasting the trend can cause enormous inaccuracy of the forecast. Consequently, forecasting techniques do not necessarily have to match for any short-run movement; however, they must not fail when break points in the economy are under consideration.

Similarly, the forecasting system will have to be adjusted once the Czech Republic enters the euro area and policy is set by the ECB Governing Council. It is worth mentioning that the development of our forecasting system has been part of the wider evolutionary process that the Czech inflation targeting regime has gone through. The first years of the new regime were not easy, and included frequent numerical target misses. Nevertheless, the Czech Republic enjoys low inflation, and inflation expectations seem to be firmly anchored at low levels at present. Monetary policy decision-making is rule-based and transparent, thereby enhancing the credibility of the CNB. Let me conclude with the statement that a “forecast based” monetary policy framework seems to fully allow an independent central bank to commit credibly to its long-term goal of price stability. Therefore, any new developments in economic forecasting are highly appreciated and welcomed by monetary policy practitioners. BIS Review 40/2006  3