samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I agree that this would be the case if all property buyers used their savings and did not need to borrow from banks. However, I do not believe that none of the purchasers of luxury properties borrow from banks. Some buyers do not approach banks for mortgages because they still have time before completing the transactions, or because they do not intend to hold the flats for a long time. I also do not believe that the markets for small and medium-sized residential flats could have become so active without abundant credit from banks. I therefore believe that the prudential measures that we have taken and good risk management by banks will help stop asset-price bubbles from forming. 10. While banks will help to control the risks, members of the public and corporations in Hong Kong also need to be more alert. They should consider what they can afford and not borrow too much at a time when interest rates are so low to avoid getting into financial difficulties when interest rates rise again. But I can see that this is not easy. As hot money continues to flow into Hong Kong, it pushes the market higher. If this continues, people may get into a mistaken mindset that the market can only go up and overlook the risk that capital and hot would might one day reverse course without warning. 11. Finally, I would like to share with you an article I read last week.

For those who take the view that asset bubbles cannot be identified with certainty, it is neither appropriate nor necessary for the government to take action to burst them. Support for this view comes from the stock market crash in 1987 and the collapse of the IT bubble in 2000. In both cases, central banks were able to stabilise the financial market rapidly by aggressively cutting interest rates and injecting large amounts of liquidity into the market, and the economy and employment quickly resumed their upward paths. But the situation may be very different this time. Because the property and financial markets were closely inter-locked, risks were dispersed by the bundling of sub-prime securities and other financial derivatives, and a large bubble formed. The bursting of this bubble caused great damage to the European and US economies and people in Europe and America have had to pay an unprecedented price. The US government used $ billion to bail out banks and car manufacturers, and the UK government spent GBP 76 billion on rescuing the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Bank alone. Many European governments have also bailed out their banking systems, including the injection of capital into large banks by the Dutch and Belgian governments. 6. Based on experience in Asia in the past two decades, I believe asset-price bubbles, rather than inflation, pose the greatest risk to financial stability. My reasons for thinking this are many and complex, and we may discuss them on another occasion.
ensuring price stability. Three main arguments are generally put forward to support this view: -  The first is that central banks have only one instrument at their disposal, i.e. the interest rate, and that this instrument, by virtue of Tinbergen’s Principle, can only be assigned to a single objective, that of price stability. Other means – particularly regulatory or prudential measures – would be better suited to and more effective in ensuring financial stability. But the current crisis demonstrates that central banks actually have several instruments at their disposal. Indeed, liquidity management in periods of financial turmoil needs to be separated from the issue of the monetary policy stance. To put it more clearly, the monetary policy stance simply consists in setting key interest rates at a level consistent with the central bank’s macroeconomic objectives, whilst liquidity management aims to enable the money market, and financial markets in general, to function “normally” so that monetary policy impulses may be efficiently transmitted to the rest of the economy. -  The second argument is policy-based in nature and postulates that monetary stability is a necessary and sufficient prerequisite for ensuring financial stability. The latter would then be a welcome consequence of the implementation of an inflation targeting strategy, which consists in only responding to shocks that have a lasting impact on medium-term price stability.

Howard Lee: Benchmark regulation and migration Closing keynote by Mr Howard Lee, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Bloomberg-ISDA Benchmark Conference "Benchmark Regulation and Migration", Hong Kong, 30 May 2019. * * * Taran [Khera], ladies and gentlemen, 1. First of all, I would like to thank Bloomberg and ISDA for organising this Benchmark Conference and for gathering so many speakers and participants to exchange views on the important subject of benchmark reform. The subject of benchmark reform is always very close to my heart, as I have been involved in the review of interest rate benchmarks both in Hong Kong and in the context of the Financial Stability Board’s Official Sector Steering Group (FSB OSSG) deliberations for many years. LIBOR discontinuation: A turning point 2. If we look back to 2013 when the OSSG started to operate, there was a general agreement that given the changes in the interbank market, the interbank offer rates, or IBORs in short must be reformed. But given the long history of IBORs and the huge value of financial contracts referencing them, moving to new IBORs with fundamentally different determination methodologies, or switching to alternative reference rates is a very complex task, as we heard from many speakers just now. Understandably market participants generally took a ‘wait-and-see’ approach when dealing with benchmark transition issues. But now – with a growing recognition that LIBOR may discontinue after end-2021 – the situation is changing.
GDP fell about 5 per cent and unemployment rocketed from levels around 2–3 per cent to two-digit figures. After a series of heavy attacks, the Swedish krona was left to float in 1992. The fixed exchange rate regime was replaced by a return to price stability as the policy objective, now in the form of a 2 per cent inflation target. Since 1999, price stability is enshrined in law and the Riksbank is more independent in the pursuit of this goal. While low inflation is admittedly not an ultimate goal for economic policy in general, it is an important prerequisite for generating growth that is stable and high. History clearly demonstrates that a high and fluctuating rate of inflation is incompatible with a permanent improvement in standards of living. A commitment to price stability is therefore one of the foundation stones of any economic policy that aims for rising prosperity and high employment. BIS Review 81/2001  3  The years since the policy realignment have been successful. But this is not only because stabilisation policy is now being conducted differently, with a clear focus on price stability and a balanced budget. It is also a result of all the measures that were introduced around the turn of the 1980s to improve the workings of the economy. These included the deregulation of capital markets, “the tax reform of the century”, a realignment of housing policy and so on.

Most important will be to ensure the continued economic flexibility of the region to adjust to the rapidly changing global and regional conditions, the strengthening of the connectivity among the emerging economies in general and within the Asian region, and to boost further the resilience of the region to withstand any destabilising developments. The ASEAN economies have a distinct advantage. In terms of their economic flexibility, their size and stage of development provides the prospects of having greater agility to adjust to the rapidly changing conditions. In terms of the connectivity, the ASEAN region is a highly cohesive region. Historically, it goes a long way back to the 1950s. Cooperation and collaboration are evident in most areas of economic activity and in the financial sector, in both the public and private sectors. Policy-makers participate in several regional agreements and arrangements. The large economies have the opportunity to leverage on the potential synergies from a greater interface with the ASEAN grouping. To realise the Asian potential, continuing the transformative momentum and enhancing the cohesiveness of the region would not be complete without ensuring that the benefits of development is widely shared. Experience has shown, even in the advanced economies, that when inequality is high and significant, instability follows. Greater inclusiveness within economies and across the region is important to ensure the sustainability of our growth and development. An important part of this transformative momentum and greater inclusion will be the transformation involving education, health care and the social security system.
That is why I am also fundamentally optimistic about what computer and telecom technology can achieve in time for our country’s economic growth and prosperity. Technological breakthroughs, corporate profits and share prices Now let me consider the other question, namely the part that technological breakthroughs play for corporate profits and thereby for share prices. In the latter part of 1999 and early in 2000 shares were a feverish topic in Sweden — everyone talked about them and how much you could make by speculating in the stock market. The media were full of articles about “How to find the winners” and “How to become a day-trader”. Advisors at banks and stockbrokers waxed lyrical about share investment’s possibilities. Many people who had never owned a share or never even dreamed they would do so were tempted to speculate. Perhaps they needed a little extra money for the summer holiday, a new car or simply more cash for everyday things — why not make a little money easily and quickly, everyone was doing it, to judge from what people were telling each other at work and elsewhere. As though to confirm all this, share prices on the Stockholm bourse rose continuously to new all-time highs, as they did on many stock markets around the world. Shares did best for companies that were  BIS Review 90/2001  3  running at a loss and even needed to issue new shares to cover current operations.

The technological breakthrough, based on the microchip and the computer, that together with the new information techniques has come to be known as the “new economy” is something that is very much alive and will leave its mark on many countries, including Sweden, for a long time to come. The present economic downturn, which to some extent is a hangover after excessively optimistic expectations, will give way to another upswing. That will impart renewed vigour to the technological breakthrough that the global economy is experiencing. However, we do not know either just how deep the ongoing slowdown will be or just when it will bottom out. But it would be hard to argue that this will not happen. The underlying cyclical rhythm with upward and downward phases in economic activity has always been there. Economic history also contains periods of what I would call “growing pains”. Things do not always turn out as well as people often hope, or at least they do not happen as quickly, but neither are they ever quite as bad as we sometimes fear. My conclusion about the technological breakthrough’s impact on corporate profits is maybe not quite as optimistic, at least for share investors. Roughly speaking, historical experience indicates that the true winners are consumers, not shareholders. That conclusion is perhaps even more valid today since the breakthrough is very much a question of information. Better informed consumers tend to lead to stronger competition and depressed profit margins rather than the opposite.
As you can see, we have great expectations for Project Greenback Kota Kinabalu. But we are also equally confident of meeting, if not exceeding, those expectations. This is in no small part due to the tremendous cooperation that has already been extended to the project by the city of Kota Kinabalu, including its police force. I also know for a fact that the MSB industry here in Kota Kinabalu has thrown its full support behind the project, working closely and tirelessly with the Malaysian Association of Money Services Business, to identify and plan activities for the coming year. And we will leverage on an expanded network of partners, including non-government organisations, other financial service providers and our counterparts in the Philippines, to increase the financial inclusion impact of Project Greenback. With that, let me once again thank YB Datuk Hajah Jainab and the city of Kota Kinabalu for the opportunity to collaborate on this very important initiative to build inclusive communities where no one is left to suffer in abject poverty. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

According to the Bank’s forecast, the near-term outlook is positive. GDP growth is projected to measure just under 3% this year and then rise to about 3½% in 2015 before tapering off again to 3% in 2016. This level of growth is expected to exceed that of potential output with the effect that a positive output gap might emerge, particularly in 2015. Other things being equal, this will contribute to higher inflation. GDP growth in 2014–2016 will be driven by domestic demand, both private consumption and investment, and the contribution from net trade will be negative for the entire period. As a consequence, the sizeable current account surplus we have seen in the recent term will shrink rapidly next year and give way to a small deficit in 2016. This is cause for concern in and of itself, and we hope that the forecast will not materialise, as Iceland needs to maintain a current account surplus in the next several years as it focuses on putting its external debt onto a stronger footing and building up domestically financed foreign reserves. Economic policy and economic incentives would then have to take into account the task of of improving the outlook for the current account balance. Inflation has been below the inflation target for nine consecutive months. This is the secondlongest such period since the inflation target was adopted in March 2001, the longest being a twelve-month period from November 2002 through October 2003.
Indeed, many new areas of growth in Malaysia would benefit from higher investment, such as in niche growth segments in the services sector, as well as in the development of enabling infrastructure such as in broadband and green technology. Investment in green technology has the potential to not only increase the efficiency of the economy, but also to open up new sources of growth. As Malaysia moves from a cost-competitive economy to one that is more knowledge and innovation-driven, it is not just the quantity of investment that matters, but the quality of investment that would dictate our ability to move up the value-chain. An important consideration in ensuring high quality investment is the availability of complementary factors. Here, I would like to highlight three of these factors, namely a private sector-led competitive environment, high quality workforce and the availability of enabling infrastructures. A business friendly environment with minimal market distortions is critical to ensure that the private sector can direct its investment activities efficiently and to areas of the greatest growth and return potentials. Similarly, the availability of skilled workforce and modern infrastructures such as high-speed broadband is key in ensuring that high value-added and high knowledge-content investments take place. Much is currently being discussed and debated on the issues of high quality workforce and information age enabling infrastructures, especially given the Government’s renewed emphasis on them in the recent efforts to transform the Malaysian economy.

BIS Review 158/2009  3  As economic revival gathers pace, the immediate policy priority is to ensure that the domestic foundations for recovery are more firmly entrenched and the medium and longer term growth potential is established. The private sector will need to resume its primary role in driving economic activity. Of particular importance is the growth of private investment. Towards this end, the Central Bank will continue to ensure that access to financing across all segments remains in place. While it is critical for the public sector to play a counter-cyclical role, sustained fiscal stimulus that leads to excessive fiscal burden would be detrimental to longer-term economic prospects. Thus, the Government’s current commitment to fiscal consolidation and enhancing efficiency in public spending reflects a measured and sound approach in budgetary management. As for monetary policy, it is recognised that a prolonged period of low interest rate globally could lead to potential market distortions, particularly in an environment of ample liquidity. While consumer inflation is expected to remain low in the international environment, there is a need to be watchful of developments in asset markets and asset prices. Promoting monetary and financial stability is complicated by the frequency of very large short-term capital flows. Better prospects for recovery and expectation of a head start in the unwinding of policies in the Asian region compared to the rest of the world could lead to strong capital inflows.
While significant progress has been made in recent years, it unfortunately remains the case that disclosure practices have not kept pace with the rapid changes in banks’ business activities and risk exposures, and with how these exposures are measured and managed. For this situation to be fully remedied, notions of what is proprietary information and what should be in the public domain need to change. Knowing a company’s appetite for risk and its approach to, and methodologies for, managing risk is essential to understanding the risks of being a shareholder, a creditor or a counterparty. I strongly encourage all financial market participants to approach the issue of disclosure as users of financial statements rather than as issuers. What we all need to know about each other to be comfortable and secure in making our credit decisions should drive the debate, rather than concerns about proprietary information. There is little question about the urgency of achieving dramatic progress in this area. Clearly, a full appreciation of risk cannot be achieved without sufficient information. All of us know that there is no greater enemy to a stable financial marketplace than a loss of confidence - and nothing undermines confidence more than a lack of reliable information. Discipline imposed by markets might not always be pleasant, but more, higher quality information - in a word, transparency - bolsters the confidence of depositors and other creditors and therefore makes doing business easier and more secure.

At this critical juncture in the Asian recovery process, I think it is worth reviewing just how important a stable banking and financial system is to the health and vitality of any market economy - and particularly emerging market economies - and the crucial role that supervision plays in achieving and preserving financial stability. Indeed, effective supervision represents a crucial cornerstone of financial stability, both locally and globally. It is also clear that, given the accelerating pace of change and innovation in the financial services industry, our notion of supervision must encompass discipline applied by the marketplace, as well as official supervision. With these thoughts in mind, and noting the critical role banks play in a market economy, in my remarks today I will discuss the nature and form of an effective supervisory framework for the 21st century, addressing the role to be played by banks themselves, the broader marketplace and official supervisors. On the subject of official supervision, I will address the Basel Committee’s Core Principles for Effective Supervision, and then conclude with a discussion of the Committee’s major initiative to revise and refine the 1988 Capital Accord. Banks’ role in a market economy Let me first discuss the crucial role banks play in a market economy. While specific arrangements may vary from country to country reflecting differences in history, custom and culture, the basic principles are common to nearly all market economies.
BIS Review 32/2003  3

Svein Gjedrem: Government intervention and moral hazard in the financial sector Opening address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the conference “Government intervention and moral hazard in the financial sector”, Oslo, 2 September 2010. *  *  *  It is my pleasure to wish the participants of this research conference welcome to Oslo and Norges Bank. I also welcome participants to our annual financial industry day. This year we have chosen to make that event an integrated part of the research conference. We believe the topic of this research conference should be of particular interest to practitioners. We have also put together the program for this first day of the conference with practitioners in mind. The topic that you will be discussing during the conference is very important for our work at the Norges Bank. Moral hazard in the financial sector is a main concern for the design of government regulation and for the planning of government intervention in periods of financial distress. Norges Bank is not the bank supervisor in this country. The Financial Supervisory Authority is a separate institution. But Norges Bank does have a general responsibility for the smooth functioning of the financial system: We have what are now being termed macroprudential responsibilities. We have been doing macroprudential supervision and published our findings in our Financial Stability Reports since 1997. We were thus one of the first central banks to publish such reports. Our semi-annual reports have been gradually improved over time.