samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
One important reform was the so-called Industrial Agreement in 1997, which has meant that the manufacturing industry sets the benchmark for wage negotiations and ultimately steers wage costs in the entire economy. This functions as a brake in the system and reduces the risk of price-wage spirals. At the international level, the world’s central banks have also reacted in a different way than in the 1970s. This is also largely due to changes in the monetary policy framework, which place more focus on keeping inflation low and stable. There have been discussions that policy rate increases have been too slow in some economies, and monetary policy has therefore fallen ‘behind the curve’. However, the reaction has been relatively swift and, perhaps more importantly, relatively simultaneous (Figure 5). The fact that central banks have acted both relatively early and in unison should mean that there are good prospects for dampening global inflation. Risk of central banks going too far? However, there are those who argue that this more or less simultaneous and powerful response from the world’s central banks is not necessarily a good thing, but that synchronisation could comprise a problem.7 The idea is this: Each individual central bank tends to focus on inflation in its own country and raise the policy rate to curb it. But inflation in each individual country is also affected by how high inflation is abroad, for example via import prices.

It is certainly reasonable to assume that inflationary impulses from, for example, rising energy prices will more easily take hold if demand in the economy has been kept up by an expansionary policy than if it has not. But I find it difficult to push the argument further than that. Apart from the fact that there are already convincing explanations for the high inflation, it would require that a monetary policy that has had difficulty for years in bringing inflation up to the target would suddenly result in some kind of all-at-once effect, making inflation instead severely overshoot the target. Even though monetary policy works with long and variable lags, this would be an extreme example, with a very odd monetary policy transmission mechanism.4 In the Swedish debate there is also an almost opposite argument. This states that the high inflation is entirely due to the fact that the supply of commodities and production inputs has been affected by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and that it is therefore pointless and counterproductive for the Riksbank to try to bring inflation down again by raising the interest rate. If you only wait for a while, the effects on inflation will subside, and then it will fall back to the target by itself. But that is also a questionable argument. Inflation is not only due to supply-driven price rises, but has spread more widely in the economy. This has been partly due  cent. This outcome was published by Statistics Sweden on 18 February.
To this purpose, alongside the banking system, we are considering the required measures that may lead to the growth of lending in line with the cyclical and structural needs of the economy. Economic and monetary developments elaborated above yielded an environment of contained inflationary pressures. Average annual inflation marked 3.4% in the third quarter. Against a background of below-potential economic growth, and given the absence of monetary-related inflationary pressures, inflation was largely affected by the rise in administered prices. The contribution of the latter’s rise to headline inflation is 1 p.p. In the absence of second-round effects, the effect of the rise in administered prices is expected to be transitory, while the inflationary pressures arising from domestic demand remain well contained. On the other hand, the depreciation of the national currency has been declining, hence offsetting the rise of primary commodity prices in the world markets and the increase of inflation in Albania’s main trading partners. The absence of inflationary pressures in the medium run and the contained fiscal policy provided room for pursuing a stimulating monetary policy that sustains economic activity. In July, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania cut the key interest rate by 0.25 p.p. bringing it to the historical low of 5.00%. In addition, the Bank of Albania continued to supply the banking system with the required liquidity in order to ensure the smooth operation of the money markets and to enhance financial intermediation in economy.

Eddie Yue: Connecting the digital islands - next steps in trade finance Opening remarks by Mr Eddie Yue, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the roundtable on “The Future of Trade Finance: Opportunities for Hong Kong, Asia and the World”, co-organised by the University of Hong Kong (HKU) Asia Global Institute & International Chamber of Commerce, Hong Kong, 26 January 2022. * * * 1. Good afternoon everyone. Thank you, Dr Fung, for inviting me to speak, and the HKMA is very pleased to support today’s event. It would have been a pleasure to meet you all in person, but I am thankful that this event could go ahead as planned. 2. Today’s topic is the future of trade finance, and I believe we all agree that, to elevate global trade finance to the next level, the recurring pain points of the existing trade finance system need to be fixed. The issues—including a paper-based system that is inefficient, prone to fraud and human error—have been discussed many times; so I believe by now, we all have a basic understanding of the problems. Indeed, various stakeholders, including the HKMA, have been attempting to solve the pain points by using emerging technologies. 3. For example, in 2018, the HKMA facilitated the launch of eTradeConnect, which is a blockchain-based platform that aims to digitise paper based documents and automate the trade finance process. The platform was subsequently connected to a similar platform built by the People’s Bank of China to facilitate cross-boundary trade finance processes.
Our government has repeatedly over the past year stated that the current state of our pension system is, I quote, “a ticking time bomb which could destroy the Republic.” This is something that can be fixed by changing the parameters of the pension system going forward. Everybody recognises that these changes need to be made in order to ensure the sustainability of the system and the longer our country delays making these changes the more costly it will be to solve the problem. This is one example that is recognised. I do not think we have to look very far. In my view, it is not the most responsible policy not to defuse what has been recognised as a ticking time bomb. Q. How worried are you at the unfolding fiscal situation on the island and the inaction on the part of the authorities? I am indeed worried about our government’s delay in implementing the necessary fiscal consolidation measures because, as I mentioned earlier, any further delay raises the cost to the economy. The unemployment rate is already at historic highs. We do not help the economy generate additional growth and new jobs by not correcting the fiscal imbalances  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  that we face. The fiscal imbalances push up the cost of financing on businesses and discourage investment. I am quite worried about this. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Jean-Pierre Roth: Prospects and limitations of Switzerland as a business location Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Annual General Meeting of the Swiss Marketing Association, Zurich, 24 October 2006. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  In the economy and in politics, there is optimism in the air again. In addition to the favourable economic conditions, the performance of Swiss companies on the global markets has also been a driving force. Working from their Swiss business base, companies have taken advantage of the opportunities afforded by globalisation and are expanding all over the world. Ensuring price stability is the most important contribution a central bank can make to a business location and thus to the growth potential of a country. Significant progress has been made globally in this area in recent years. A number of factors suggest that increased competition has had an impact on this development in that it has changed the political environment for central banks. Competition has become stiffer in recent years, also in Switzerland. Not only market forces, but also economic policy reforms have played a role. There continues to be a need for action here, however.
Among steps already taken are the recent overhaul of the civil service workforce, fiscal decentralization, and privatization of state-owned enterprises. If executed in a proper manner, these efforts will go a long way towards good public sector governance. However, there are still some other areas in public governance that need attention from the government. These areas are of great interest to the public and are therefore currently under public scrutiny. On transparency, progress has also been made in terms of public data disclosure. Having adopted already the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), Thailand is considering moving up one step further to publish the more stringent Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSCs), which disclose in more details the country’s economic and financial management. In an attempt to restore the public confidence in the financial system, the Bank of Thailand itself has undergone major reforms in its organization structure, data management, and work processes. Inflation targeting has been adopted as a framework for the conduct of monetary policy. And despite the crisis turmoil, we have been able to maintain and better define our independence. The final area of the new growth paradigm is the urgent need for a comprehensive macroeconomic strategy. Policies must be conducted under good discipline, with the right policy mix and stance. Here, the keyword is the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. The Bank of Thailand’s role in promoting sustainable growth is to conduct responsible monetary policy to ensure price stability.

I would like to highlight the initiative undertaken in cooperation with the World Bank, and funded by the SECO, for the implementation of Project Greenback 2.0 in Berat. This project consists in enhancing financial inclusion and financial education for emigrants and their families, who receive these funds, as well as in establishing effective channels in terms of costs for the delivery of these funds. In addition, to expand the market knowledge regarding remittances, in June, the Bank of Albania published “Remittances: A support for development". This publication is entirely dedicated to remittances and adopts a comprehensive approach to various aspects in the domestic market. Some of these aspects are the macro-level analysis of remittances and their impact on development in general and on the receiving families; the analysis of the infrastructure of the remittances market in Albania, and the need for intervention, as well as providing adequate statistics on remittances. An important step in the framework of financial education was also undertaken by the Albanian Association of Banks. In June, a memorandum of cooperation was signed on establishing the Albanian Network for Financial Education and fostering inter-institutional cooperation and coordination in the field of financial education. However, there is still much to be done, despite the developments I mentioned earlier. In this context, I would like to invite you all to continue with the efforts made so far, with the same intensity, in order to modernize the domestic payment market.
Dear colleagues, No monetary policy regime per se is universally superior, however. This is where the need for an optimal policy mix, which relates to the topic of this conference, can be illustrated by the case of Bulgaria again. Fiscal policy must play a vital buffer and corrective role in a small open economy. The same is valid for an economy with a fixed exchange rate. While the importance of fiscal discipline is only now being acknowledged in some parts of the euro area, the philosophy of constant fiscal vigilance has been guiding the policymakers in Bulgaria since 1997. But even fiscal discipline is not enough for the overall macroeconomic stability. The reason for this is the fact that there has always been, and there will always be, a strong interconnection between the state of the public finances and the quality of the banks’ balance sheets. Because of that, following a deep financial and banking crisis in the mid-1990s, Bulgaria adopted one of the most conservative supervisory standards and practices in Europe. What is more, they have been persistently implemented in a countercyclical fashion, both before and during the crisis. As deputy governor Simeonov will detail later at this conference, the BNB has mastered and tested successfully a long list of both “macro” and “micro” bank supervision instruments. In the “good” times, the BNB insisted on the build-up of capital and liquidity buffers, discouraging banks from excessive asset growth and risk-taking.

For its part, the Banco de España, in keeping with its remit, considers that this review must not succumb to the temptation of indiscriminately stepping up the level of regulation of the sector. The initiatives along these lines have to be thought out in depth and have to be justified by the existence of a market failure the resolution of which, through public intervention, gives rise to greater benefits than costs. Lastly, in regard to the direct powers of the Banco de España, I would remind you of something that often seems to be overlooked: the institution I represent is part of the Eurosystem. In view of that fact it will continue working to ensure that monetary policy implementation is compatible with holding inflation within the bounds set by the central bank and, at the same time, will help guarantee that adequate liquidity is provided so that money markets function properly. The social partners also have an important task: to co-operate so that, while the inevitable adjustment is taking place in the residential construction sector and in related activities, the rest of the economy, i.e. industry and services, becomes more dynamic. And for this to happen a moderation in private sector margins and in unit labour costs through wage moderation and/or productivity increases is fundamental. It should be quite clear for all that if the inevitable rise in unemployment in construction is not offset by greater dynamism in the rest of the private sector of the economy, employment may perform more negatively than expected.
John C Williams: A tale of many economies Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at University at Albany-SUNY, Albany, New York, 11 July 2019. * * * As prepared for delivery Thank you for that kind introduction and for having me to speak today. I’m an economist, so I naturally have a fascination with data, statistics, and what we can learn from them. But the reason I find economics so interesting isn’t the numbers or the charts—it’s how they shape the everyday lives of people. And that’s the reason running a Federal Reserve Bank is such a privilege. The work we do—our public mission—plays a big role in helping people get jobs, take out mortgages, or grow their businesses. Today I’m going to talk a bit about that work and the health of the economy—both at the national level and for this region, the Federal Reserve’s Second District. Before I go any further I need to give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee or others in the Federal Reserve System. I’ve just referred to the Federal Open Market Committee and the Federal Reserve System, but I know it’s not always entirely clear to people what they are, or what they do.

Growth is concentrated in the largest cities like New York and San Francisco, and those who benefit the most are those who already have high incomes.2 A large part of this is because current economic conditions favor highly skilled workers who tend to flock to cities. These big metropolitan areas are successful, but they also suffer from some of the starkest wage inequality in the country. By contrast, upstate New York is less unequal, but the disappearance of manufacturing jobs has held back growth. More equal wage growth is only good news if people have jobs. But many have found themselves in the position of leaving the area in which they grew up to look for work. The Albany area has bucked this trend. The mix of colleges and universities specializing in innovative subjects like nanotechnology, and high-tech businesses, alongside its position as a state capital, has created a real economic success story. I know there are a lot of students in the room, and choosing SUNY was a wise move. Investing in an education that equips you for the future will pay off over the long term. The Tale of Many Economies So what can the Fed do about this complex picture—the tale of many economies I’ve talked about today? 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Monetary policy is an important tool, but it alone cannot address all the economic issues that we face.
BIS Review 16/2009  1  A glance at the inflation rates in the euro’s first decade makes this clear: the average annual inflation rate in the euro area in the ten years since the introduction of the currency was 2.2%. By comparison, the average annual rate of inflation in Germany in the 1990s, before the euro was introduced, was also 2.2%. In the 1980s, the rate was 2.9%, in the 1970s 4.9%. In other words, in terms of stability, the euro does not need to shy away from any comparison with the Deutsche Mark and other legacy currencies. At 2.2% per year since 1999 average inflation was somewhat above the level that the ECB’s Governing Council has defined as price stability: an inflation rate of below, but close to, 2% in the euro area, over the medium term. Nevertheless, the result remains good, for the first ten years were anything but calm. In particular, we had an oil price shock, which was certainly comparable with that of the 1970s. Between early 2002 and mid-2008, crude oil prices in dollar terms rose by nearly 600%. In the case of food prices as well, we faced price pressures: at the beginning of the decade, and in particular in 2007 and 2008 by the global rise in food prices. Despite these shocks and short-lived erratic price movements, inflation rates remained generally low. Above all, inflation expectations were and are firmly anchored at a level in line with our definition of price stability.

6 I shall not go further into this, but merely wish to point out once again how important it is to analyse the driving forces behind inflation to be able to explain the monetary policy conducted. This means that we from time to time highlight different measures of inflation. In the current stage it is thus important to distinguish the effects of our own measures which we have implemented to alleviate the effects of the financial crisis on international growth and thus on growth in Sweden. 5  For a detailed discussion of this, see “Should monetary policy stabilise resource utilisation?” Economic Commentary No. 1 2008, Sveriges Riksbank. 6  Inflation measured in terms of the CPIF, which disregards changes in mortgage rates, is around 1.6 per cent on average in 2009. If one also excludes energy costs, the average for 2009 is 2.2 per cent. BIS Review 38/2009  5  Monetary policy is dependent on a functioning transmission mechanism Inflation is affected by the Riksbank’s changes in the repo rate through what is usually known as the transmission mechanism. This influence goes through several different channels, such as short and long real interest rates, the exchange rate and the supply of credit. The impact occurs with different degrees of delay. The repo rate is the interest rate the banks pay when they borrow from or deposit money in the Riksbank for one week against collateral.
Indeed, their continuation would have entailed an increase in the vulnerability of the Spanish economy and the eventual correction would have been even more severe. Cyclical upswings followed by downswings are a normal feature of all economies, although the fact that Spain has recorded high growth rates without interruption for fourteen years may have led agents to forget the existence of this type of cyclical disturbance. Before addressing the central theme of my speech, it would be useful to answer the question why the industrialised countries have suddenly found themselves in such a complicated situation. Part of the answer (the other part being the regulation and supervision failures in many countries) relates to the strong increase in corporate and household debt in numerous countries in recent years, which led, in the presence of highly favourable financial conditions,  BIS Review 117/2008  1  to a significant appreciation in the value of financial and real assets. Some economists and institutions have argued that monetary policy was too lax and that central banks should in future pay attention not only to inflation, but also to other financial developments, such as credit, when taking their decisions. In some cases, these favourable financial conditions were harnessed to expand residential and productive investment (as in Spain), while in others consumption was also boosted by the ready availability of financing, leading to a spectacular reduction in household saving ratios, as in the United States.

Moreover, this good starting point has, for example, avoided the need to react to the current losses of revenue by raising taxes, which would have certainly magnified the intensity of the adjustment. That said, the slowdown in spending is having a significant impact on tax revenue, reducing the budget balance very rapidly, so that utmost prudence must be exercised in fiscal and budgetary decisions. The need to provide the appropriate incentives means that it is advisable not to adopt widespread and permanent discretionary budgetary measures that attempt to counter the effects on households and firms of the inevitable reduction in national spending required by the adjustment process. Measures to increase spending would, at best, enable activity to be sustained only temporarily and would not help to improve the prospects for expansion in the  BIS Review 117/2008  3  medium term. And I say at best because, without an improvement in external competitiveness, a large part of the increase in public spending would leak abroad and have only a minimal impact on domestic activity. Likewise, strengthening control over current general government spending is an essential measure in response to a low-growth phase, since it limits the deterioration in the budget balance, signals stability and rigour to the private sector, and provides greater leeway to undertake public investment projects that enable the Spanish economy’s productive base and competitiveness to be enhanced.