samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
–  We must review our framework for extending ELA;  –  Our analysis needs to focus more than before on liquidity developments in major cross-border bank groups. Where such groups exist, the home country of the parent bank is vulnerable to threats to financial stability in other countries, both where the funding markets are located and those where the group has subsidiaries or branches. For Sweden, this situation is accentuated since our banking system is four times larger than our GDP, and since our major banking groups depend on  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  funding in international markets to a high degree. The financial stability analysis will have to expand to identify threats early on and to deal with them. We must be alert to potential contagion between unsustainable monetary and fiscal policies in other countries and their potential repercussions on the stability of our own country’s financial groups. –  The crisis showed the need for clear roles and mandates for the authorities involved in crisis management, in particular for resolving problem banks. The Riksbank, the Financial Supervisory Authority, the National Debt Office and the Ministry of Finance had frequent contacts throughout the crisis and coordinated their actions. That said, the division of responsibilities is not clear in all situations and the Riksbank has asked Parliament to clarify the legislation on this and a number of other crisisrelated issues. Matching goals with tools The Riksbank has a fairly well-developed structure for macro-prudential analysis.

It is also well-known that, despite their social challenges, many with autism have powerful intellectual skills – for example, in pattern recognition. That it is why it has been estimated that as many as 50% of Silicon Valley innovators may have Asperger’s Syndrome, a type of 8  autism. Yet how easy would it be for those with autism to thrive in our organisations? The facts rather speak for themselves. Only around 12% of high-functioning individuals with autism are in work. Another aspect to recruitment which inhibits diversity-building is that it tends to be judged with individual, rather than the organisational, attributes in mind. Let’s take a simple example to illustrate. Consider two candidates for a job sitting a test. The first scores 8 out of 10, the second 4 out of 10. The first person is clearly the best person for the job. But are they the right person for the organisation? 8  See The Economist (2016) ‘Beautiful minds, wasted: how not to squander the potential of autistic people’. 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  5  That is not so clear. What if the second person answers correctly the two questions the first candidate gets wrong. And what if the same is true of most of the existing employees in the company – likely, as they will have probably helped set the test. In this situation, the second candidate may well be the better one for the organisation because they bring organisational strength through diversity, despite being individually weaker.
On the other hand, continued relatively low unemployment in Norway will contribute to pushing up wage growth. Wage growth is projected to increase to 4¼ per cent in 2010, rising further to 4¾ per cent towards the end of the projection period. The severe cyclical downturn and the decline in commodity prices have resulted in very low consumer price inflation in many countries. The year-on-year change in consumer prices is negative in the US, the euro area, Sweden, Japan and China. Core inflation is more stable, but has also edged down recently. Moderate growth prospects and lower-than-normal capacity utilisation in most advanced economies will lead to low consumer price inflation among our main trading partners throughout the projection period. The key policy rate was reduced to prevent inflation from falling too far below target and to mitigate the impact of the global downturn on the Norwegian economy. Underlying consumer price inflation in Norway has slowed in recent months to an estimated rate of just below 2½ per cent, reflecting the effects of lower wage growth, reduced capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy and low inflation abroad. Although the krone depreciation last autumn has pushed up import prices, the effect of the depreciation is probably now waning. BIS Review 139/2009  13  After a period of falling productivity, unit labour costs are high. The projections are based on an increase in firms’ margins ahead through an increase in prices.

While we have begun to address other areas of systemic risk, I feel the industry as a whole is just beginning to scratch the surface of the potential system-wide impact of a significant cyber-attack. This risk can be referred to as “single point of failure.” What is this? These are areas that, despite all of the work that has already been carried out, are significantly more vulnerable than others. We need to identify where they are and focus our combined efforts on understanding their systemic impact and addressing them. I want to be very clear here. I don’t think that this isn’t a regular topic of conversation among directors, executives and managers – in fact, based on discussions I’ve had with many of you, I know that it’s quite the opposite. There is a lot of discussion within firms about the topic – and there’s quite a bit of activity more broadly that suggests that many different people are talking about cyber. There are conferences on cybersecurity every week. Consultancy firms are working with the industry on how to protect against attacks. Law enforcement agencies are investigating and cracking down on attacks and those behind them. Everyone is talking about this! And, I think that’s appropriate and necessary – this is everyone’s issue. As we engage in discussions on the subject and flesh out our plans to address this risk, there are a number of topics that are key to keep in mind.
The ratio of vacancies to unemployment – which we consider one of the more reliable summary indicators of labour market tightness in recent years – fell to 0.9, from a peak of 1.1 back in August. That chimes with recent intelligence from our network of Agents and their corporate contacts across the country, which points to some easing in recruitment difficulties. Nonetheless, while pointing to some easing in recent months, these indicators suggest the labour market remains tight in an absolute sense relative to historical experience. In turn, this is consistent with continued strength in UK wage growth. Annual private sector regular pay growth[6] was 7.3% in the latest report, 0.1pp higher than expected in the MPR, even if the momentum of wage growth may now be slowing. Turning to yesterday’s CPI data, inflation fell to 10.1% in January, from 10.5% in December. On the month, this mainly owed to an easing in services and fuel price inflation, although developments in historically very volatile components such as airfares counted for a large part of the former. Both the March and May MPC meetings represent points at which the Committee can again assess the implications of incoming data for the monetary policy stance, with the latter having the advantage of an updated comprehensive assessment in the form of the MPC forecasts.

Binghamton, on the other hand, has really been struggling with no signs yet of any meaningful recovery. Meanwhile, Northern New Jersey’s economy had been growing fairly steadily until this past winter when activity softened, probably due at least in part to the unusually harsh weather. Now that spring is finally upon us, we hope to see economic conditions improve more significantly. What kinds of jobs have been created during the recovery? Let me turn to the topic of today’s press briefing: how the types of jobs in the region have changed over the last business cycle. Firms often change the way they utilize workers and the mix of skills they employ during recessions and recoveries. The weakening demand during recessions forces firms to look for new ways to be more efficient to cope with hard times. These adjustments do not affect all workers equally. Indeed, it’s what we typically think of as middle-skilled workers – for example, construction workers, machine operators and administrative support personnel – that are hardest hit during recessions. Further, a feature of the Great Recession and indeed the prior two recessions, is that the middle-skill jobs that were lost don’t all come back during the recoveries that follow. Instead, job opportunities have tended to shift toward higher- and lower-skilled workers. As we’ll show, these same trends have played out in our region. While there’s been a good number of both higher-skill and lower-skill jobs created in the region during the recovery, opportunities for middle-skilled workers have continued to shrink.
Of course, there is no reason to ban books, but the unrest caused by this book is actually a positive thing. It is a sign of changing times, enhanced understanding, and diminishing prejudice. When that book was published in the mid-20th century, hardly anyone thought of it as being hurtful or offensive in any way. But now we see that it can indeed be those things, and this is why the publication of the book and the ensuing discussion are a positive indication of new times and changed perspective. Actually, recent decades have seen a fervent effort to recast well-known terms and names for all sorts of phenomena so as to avoid injuring those who, either temporarily or for the long term, might be vulnerable. This is also positive, though some of these philanthropic efforts have gone a bit too far in their enthusiasm. Another phenomenon we see is that newly coined terms soon become cloaked in a sort of semi-divinity in Iceland – like the term “international expansion,” which no one dares oppose lest he be accused of being an anachronism, devoid of a sense of “vision,” as it is now called, and of not knowing when the time is ripe for action. Upon closer scrutiny, the term “international expansion” seems to be nothing more than investment abroad – together with utilisation of knowledge and talent, of course.

The characters that made it through to the final shortlist were:   Mary Anning    Charles Babbage and Ada Lovelace    Paul Dirac    Rosalind Franklin    Stephen Hawking    Caroline Herschel and William Herschel    Dorothy Hodgkin    James Clerk Maxwell    Srinivasa Ramanujan    Ernest Rutherford    Frederick Sanger    Alan Turing  The shortlist epitomises the breadth and depth of scientific achievement in the UK. Their work covers both the theoretical and the practical, and spans from the smallest building blocks of the universe to the nature of life itself. 1  Characters must be non-fictional and deceased. We also need to ensure that a suitable, easy to recognise, portrait of the person is available. 2 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/people/banknote-character-advisory-committee. 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  2  Rosalind Franklin’s and Frederik Sanger’s revelations about DNA, for example, furthered our understanding of the biology of life, and Dorothy Hodgkin’s discoveries about the structure of insulin and vitamins better enabled us to preserve it. Mary Anning’s palaeontological discoveries helped us understand the history of life on earth, while Caroline and William Herschel and Stephen Hawking opened up the heavens. Srinivasa Ramanujan’s pioneering research transformed modern theoretical mathematics. More practicably, the ground-breaking work of James Clerk Maxwell, Ernest Rutherford and Paul Dirac on electromagnetism, radiation and quantum mechanics laid the foundations for telecommunications and nuclear physics.
Both the “standardised” and the more sophisticated “internal ratings-based” approaches will help to align capital requirements more closely with a bank’s actual risks. Both will also help us realise two key goals: to make our capital rules more sensitive to the potential for loss, and to encourage ongoing improvements in banks’ risk management. Understandably, aligning a bank’s capital requirements more closely with its borrowers’ creditworthiness has generated discussion among small business and others who want to ensure that the new rules do not encumber lending to that sector. The Basel Committee has worked hard to avoid creating such burdens. In fact, our studies have identified those characteristics of SME lending that reduce the risk to banks and hence the need for additional capital. In that vein, I’d like to turn now to the rules that will apply to SME lending, which is my second topic. The treatment of SMEs under the New Accord If you’ve followed our work over the years, you’ll know that our proposals have evolved considerably. For instance, after the Committee published drafts of the rules in 1999 and 2001, we heard the message loud and clear from small business that the rules did not fully distinguish between exposures to very large corporations as opposed to SMEs. Likewise, bankers themselves indicated that they typically view lending to large corporations and to smaller enterprises as very different businesses. We have investigated thoroughly the economics of SME lending.

Even though probabilities of default may be higher for individual SMEs, our research identified persuasive empirical evidence that most banks’ holdings of loans to SMEs benefit from a greater degree of diversification than their holdings of loans to larger corporations do. Diversification helps to reduce both a bank’s exposure to the credit risk posed by SME lending and the commensurate need for capital. Moreover, we’ve taken a closer look at the precautions banks take when lending to smaller businesses, such as asking for guarantees or collateral. These measures help to lower further the potential losses a bank might incur in lending to a small business and can similarly reduce the need for capital. Our findings motivated revisions to the proposals that will prevent an across-the-board increase in capital requirements for SME lending. What’s more, our “quantitative impact studies” have generated solid proof showing that, on average, many banks’ requirements will actually decrease. Three changes to the New Accord are especially relevant. ·  First, in addition to an overall flattening of the risk-weight curve for corporate credits, we have reduced directly the capital charges for loans to smaller businesses. For example, banks on the IRB approach will be permitted to adjust downward the capital requirements on exposures to small businesses with up to € million in annual sales. This adjustment will reduce the capital charges on a loan to an SME by as much as 20% compared to the new requirements for larger companies and may in many cases be lower than the current requirements.
In devising these reforms the broadest possible consensus would be desirable, as that would increase their soundness and effectiveness. But clearly conveying to society that the seriousness of the situation requires far-reaching reforms will be of paramount importance. We would thus be taking a decisive step in leaving this crisis behind us, and the foundations would be laid so that Spain may take up a new phase of vigorous growth and high job creation  6  BIS Review 151/2009

In particular, due to the still exceptionally low interest rates, there is, however, a considerable risk that these imbalances continue to build up, and the risk of an abrupt correction over the medium term keeps increasing. Under these circumstances, the SNB is carefully monitoring the developments in mortgage and real estate markets. It periodically assesses the necessity to activate the countercyclical capital buffer. Issuance of the new banknote series in 2015 at the earliest In February 2012, the National Bank informed the public that the new banknote series would be postponed. Today, I would like to provide some background information on our decision. The National Bank is committed to putting banknotes into circulation that are state of the art in terms of both their design and their technological aspects. In order to meet this standard, such a project must be launched at an early stage. Integrating and combining security features involving new technologies that have not previously been used for banknotes presents a special challenge. Since the development phase for new security features is very long, launching a new series is likely to take several years for the technical feasibility assessment alone. Certain insights can only be gained during the actual serial production. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The development of the new banknote series began in 2005 with a design competition.
Further decisive steps towards establishing a genuine banking union are needed so as to further reduce financial fragmentation, enhance the resilience of the banking sector and strengthen the institutional framework of the euro area. The ECB welcomes the approval of the legal framework of the single supervisory mechanism (SSM) by the European Parliament on 12 September and we look forward to its urgent adoption by the EU Council in the course of October. The entry into force of the SSM legal framework will allow us to further speed up the preparation process, which is well under way. We are committed to delivering on our new supervisory responsibilities by November 2014. We also strongly support the envisaged timeline for the establishment by the end of 2014 of the single resolution mechanism (SRM), which is a necessary complement to the SSM. The Commission’s proposal for the SRM contains three essential elements for the effective resolution of banks, namely: a single system, a single authority and a single fund. The ECB’s forthcoming comprehensive assessment of banks’ balance sheets, which will take place before the ECB assumes its supervisory responsibilities, will be an important confidence-building tool, and we are committed to ensuring its consistency and transparency. The effectiveness of this exercise will also depend on the availability of necessary arrangements for recapitalising banks, if and when needed, including through the provision of a public backstop, if private funds cannot be acquired.

Mario Draghi: Euro area economic outlook, the ECB’s monetary policy and current policy challenges Statement by Mr Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, prepared for the Twenty-Eighth Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, Washington DC, 12 October 2013. *  *  *  I would like to focus on the euro area economic outlook, the ECB’s monetary policy and current policy challenges. Economic activity in the euro area bottomed out in the first half of the year and is expected to strengthen gradually in the period ahead. Recent economic indicators, which have been predominantly positive, support expectations of a modest and gradual recovery. Output is expected to recover at a slow pace, driven by a gradual improvement in domestic demand supported by the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy stance and a gradual strengthening of external demand. Furthermore, the improvements in financial markets seen since August 2012 appear to be gradually working their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation. The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. Developments in global money and financial market conditions and related uncertainties may have the potential to negatively affect the economic outlook. Other downside risks include higher commodity prices in the context of renewed geopolitical tensions, weaker than expected global demand and slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries.
One can certainly say that in normal times that could be resolved at group level. However, this didn’t necessarily prove to be the case in the recent experience. Because our financial systems are inter-connected, I think this issue deserves more attention in the future.   A crucial step in alleviating the financial crisis in CEE countries was the Vienna initiative, which stabilized both the balance sheets of the big banking groups operating in the region and the trust of our public in them. I think such a facility needs to be permanent, at least in the case of global or European potential financial  4  BIS Review 173/2010    Financial regulation and regulatory arbitrage was a serious issue before and throughout the crisis. Before the crisis, banking groups would play regulatory regime and policies against each other and try to reach some kind of lowest common denominator throughout the region. Countless times we have heard the complaint “Why are you not allowing this, your neighbors do!”, and I’m sure others people in this room have heard it too. During the crisis, we experienced several cases of countries trying to seek individual solutions to common problems. While fully respecting the idiosyncrasies and different timing priorities of each country, I think we would all benefit from a more collegial approach to regulation.   On a national level, I believe the stress should be on supervision of Systemically Important Financial Institutions, with the right care not to create wrong perceptions related with moral hazard.

If we compare this situation with the overall economic crunch of 2008–2009, we can see that GDP dropped over 10% at the time, while in 2015–2016 it contracted by slightly more than 3%, given that the oil price drops were similar. We will be able to revise our estimates in April, when Rosstat publishes its updated statistics for 2016. Preliminary estimates suggest that GDP started showing quarterly growth as soon as 2016 Q2 (Q3 according to previous estimates). Annual industrial production growth entered positive territory in the first quarter of last year. Estimates of industrial production statistics for the beginning of this year need calendar adjustment. This February is two working days shorter than last year, which results in different volumes. If adjusted for this factor, industrial production continued to expand, adding more than 1% YoY in February. This calendar effect will also manifest itself in overall Q1 readings. After a long period of instability, we can see clearer signs of investment recovery. Production and imports of investment goods are growing. Surveys confirm that investment demand is on the rise. Businesses are building up stockpiles as they expect demand to recover. These expectations may soon prove right. We predict consumption to increase in annual terms as soon as the second quarter. It will come after expansion in production and will not create inflation risks. Third, the short-term risks stemming from Finance Ministry operations have not materialised.