samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
At the outset, the fan charts published in the Inflation Report showed that the odds on writing such a letter during the following two years were 3 to 1 on. In the event, no letter was required. Although the probability of writing such a letter has diminished, it remains high. The latest Inflation Report published last Wednesday implies that the odds on our having to write a letter over the next two years are 2 to 1 against, or one in three. Thirty years ago the UK embarked on an inflationary journey, and what a roller coaster ride it turned out to be. During the 1970s inflation averaged no less than 13% a year, with a peak of over 27% in August 1975. During the 1980s inflation averaged 7% a year, and it has fallen to 4% during the 1990s. That period also contained two of the deepest recessions experienced by any major industrial country in the post-war period. Since the inflation target was adopted in October 1992 inflation has averaged 2.8%. The improvement in inflation performance during the 1990s can be seen in Chart 1.1 Inflation has been remarkably stable during the six years since an inflation target was introduced. Indeed, it has been more stable than in any period since monthly RPI figures were first collected in 1947. 1  Charts not included in this Review. BIS Review 63/1999  2  Moreover, the adoption of a monetary regime which produced low and stable inflation has not damaged growth in output and employment.

Other initiatives such as the harmonization of the regulatory framework in the region will also help foster an investment-friendly environment that encourage issuers to tap funds across the region using procedures, prospectus, and disclosure requirements they are familiar at home. Savers will also have a greater choice of diversification of their savings. As finance people, we are always conscious that finance always follows trade and production. Today, our region trades more with one another and invest more in each other’s market, which is confirmed by the ranking of Asian trading partners as top export destination  1  From 950 USD billion as of December 2001 to 5,700 USD billion at end 2011. 2  From 2,800 USD billion at end 2001 to 14,000 USD billion at end 2011. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  for most of our countries. It is therefore only natural that our financial markets become more integrated to enable our firms and enterprises to allocate resources where they most benefit themselves and the region. Notwithstanding these progress and ongoing works, there are challenges that come with a maturing and more integrated market. Some Asian bond markets experience, from time to time, market turbulence as foreign investors leave the market during the recent crisis period. These point to the limited ability of the market to manage large amount of foreign capital flows.
Therefore, although it may seem obvious, when we talk about default rates, we are not referring to household mortgages, but primarily to real estate development exposures and to financing for land purchases and other real estate business activities. To use an English expression, we are referring to what is known as “pipeline risk”. However, despite the relatively favourable behaviour of residential mortgages, the financial crisis has clearly exposed certain weaknesses in the mortgage market which need to be addressed and which have had a painful social impact and financial consequences that still linger on. We must also recognise that there were highly questionable banking practices before and during the crisis. In many cases, bank managers introduced perverse incentives for mortgage sales, which led to the outcome that is all too familiar. 4/15  In recent years, in addition to the dramatic social and economic situation, we have witnessed a period of unprecedented litigiousness and legal uncertainty. Much of this litigiousness has notably centred on the mortgage market, according to the complaints data of the Banco de España. A case in point here are floor clauses. The number of complaints filed through the ad hoc system established by RDL 1/2017 has come to almost 1.2 million, with refunds amounting to more than € million to date. This high level of litigiousness is also apparent in the courts of justice. 5/15  It is worth remembering that litigiousness and the attendant uncertainty is not only very detrimental to banks, but also negative for the customer.

Finally, we must remember that the application of strict standards, as required by the law, will, at least in the short term, limit the access to owner-occupied housing of certain low income groups. I sincerely believe that in the medium and long-term the effect will be more positive, by fostering greater price stability over the business cycle. We should remember that runaway growth of prices is the main factor that ultimately restricts access to owneroccupied housing. In any event, it is up to public authorities to shape the social measures that aim to guarantee decent homes for the less well off. It should be noted that construction of subsidised housing is currently at low levels, despite the economic recovery. Certain initiatives in our neighbouring countries are of interest, such as the role played by the deposits and consignments fund in France or the state guarantee arrangements in the Netherlands for housing up to a certain value. It is true that banks must not forget to apply strict economic criteria in their business, but it is just as true that a fair and responsible society should not be guided by economic criteria alone. 11/15  Use of the new macroprudential tools. In the last part of my speech I would like to depart a little from the real estate credit law to discuss the new macroprudential tools recently introduced by Royal Decree-Law 22/2018. As I have already mentioned, the crisis highlighted the insufficiency of microprudential supervision to identify, prevent and mitigate the materialisation of systemic risk.
Monetary policy Let me now devote the last few minutes of my talk to discuss how the current monetary policy fits into the overall public policy directions. Monetary policy’s legal mandate is to preserve price and financial stability. Throughout the last couple of years, the Monetary Policy Committee has maintained an accommodative policy stance to support the economy. Weighing risks to financial stability against downside risks to growth, the Committee carefully adjusted the degree of policy accommodation to ensure sufficient support to domestic demand. The last policy rate cut took place in March this year, as lower risks to domestic financial stability and subdued price pressure opened room for monetary easing in light of higher risks to growth. In our latest meeting in June, the Committee voted unanimously to maintain policy rate at 2 percent. The Committee was encouraged by reduced political uncertainties and a  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  resumption of functioning government. We also deemed recent fiscal actions and prevailing monetary policy accommodation as lending adequate support to recovery. The Committee will continue to monitor the situation, and ensure that the ongoing recovery gains traction, in the context of price and financial stability consistent with our mandate. The Committee has been able to maintain policy credibility and adhere to our mandate thanks to our operational independence. The institutional setup must continue to protect this independence, so that monetary policy can remain a cornerstone of Thailand’s macroeconomic stability.

Domestically, the prolonged period of economic slowdown has subjected indebted households and smaller businesses to financial strains. Loan quality for weaker borrowers has deteriorated somewhat as a result. The good news is that these risks have been confined to specific sectors, and the banking system remains strong and has weathered the slowdown very well, owing to their prudent risk management policies. Externally, we also cannot rule out further episodes of volatile capital flows owing to shifts in monetary policy abroad. Our economy has proven resilient to such shocks in the recent past, thanks to strong macroeconomic fundamentals and robust policy framework. We will closely monitor the adjustment process to ensure that risks to financial stability continue to be contained. To summarize, the economy seems to be at an inflection point. The outlook for growth has improved following the political event in May. But a new set of challenges has also emerged. Now that political uncertainties have waned, what should be the priorities for public policy? What are key areas of needed “economic reform”, and what should such agenda entail? This brings me to the second topic of my talk, that of challenges to public policy management during the current period of transition. Challenges to public policy management The agenda for economic reform under discussion today is wide-ranging and may at times seem confusing to the public. To organize one’s thoughts, it might be helpful to revisit the basic role of government in a modern economy.
For instance, the Bank supports the initiative of Branchless Banking as an innovative way of growing the banking industry. Mr Chairperson, another important facet in the development of the mobile payments industry shall be the ability of the individual payments systems to interoperate and settle real time across different payment systems through shared infrastructure. This should be one of the objectives of the Zambia Payments Systems Association, and therefore urge that the Association adopts this objective as part of their medium term plan. The Bank of Zambia welcomes initiative that will bring down costs and ultimately make mobile payments services affordable to the people. Ladies and Gentlemen, the conference theme looks to the next decade in mobile banking and talks about universal mobile services, I am glad that this theme is being explored here. Our understanding of this theme is twofold: firstly, that in the next decade all adult Zambians will have access to financial services and secondly that financial services shall be available to the majority of our people through this delivery mechanism. This is indeed an ambitious target and can only be achieved through forums like this one where industry experts come together to share ideas and chart the way forward. As the regulator the Bank shall continue to provide policy guidance and regulations that are clear and unambiguous in support of the  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  growth of this industry. Further, our obligations extend to ensuring that as these technological advancements occur: 1. The consumer remains protected;  2.

Michael Gondwe: Mobile payments and mobile banking in Zambia Opening address by Dr Michael Gondwe, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the 4th Annual Celpay Mobile Payments Conference, Lusaka, 12 September 2012. *  *  *  •  The Chairman of the Board of Celpay Zambia, Dr. Jacob Mwanza  •  The Chief Executive of Celpay International, Mr. Lazarus Muchenje  •  Senior Government officials  •  Representatives of Embassies  •  Chief Executives Officers of Commercial banks and Financial Institutions  •  Representatives of International Business Organisations  •  Representatives of Zambian Business Organisations  •  Distinguished participants  •  Members of the press  •  Ladies and Gentlemen  It is an honour and privilege to officiate at the 4th Mobile Payments Conference being hosted by Celpay Zambia Limited under the theme “1st Decade Mobile Payments, 2nd Decade Universal Mobile Banking services”. The Theme for this conference is appropriate and timely as it provides an opportunity for participants, and especially stakeholders, to not only reflect on what has been a decade of tremendous achievement and growth, where major changes have occurred in banking due to the introduction of mobile payments and mobile banking, but also an opportunity to gaze into the future and take a pioneering role in charting out how mobile payments can ultimately provide more banking services remotely, and away from traditional banking.
Consequently, there is a wide variety of institutional solutions and regulatory arrangements across countries and sectors. I nevertheless consider that such a decentralised approach should be considered as an opportunity, rather than a disadvantage. It encourages "cross fertilisation" of best practices through increased co-ordination of Member States’ structural policies. My second remark concerns the changeover to the euro. This event is a major structural reform in itself, a powerful drive towards restructuring the European economy. It constitutes a strong lever to facilitate the comparison of prices, taxes and incomes. An important objective consists in raising the potential output growth of the European economy If France and Europe want to secure sustainable growth at levels that are as high as possible, the key variable is potential output growth. There are three ways of raising the level of potential output growth: First, boost investment: business leaders are completely free to invest wherever they want in France, Europe or elsewhere in the world. It is thus important that we create economic, legal and fiscal conditions that are as favourable as possible to investment in Europe. The investment appeal of Europe is crucial in this respect: the more we invest, the fewer inflationary pressures we will have, and the stronger potential output growth will be. The second way of raising potential output growth is to increase the quantity of available labour: The European Council of Lisbon fixed as a central objective increasing the employment rate of our populations from 60 to 70 % in 10 years.

What role do you think currencies, including the yuan, should play in the global rebalancing? Noyer: It is up to [China] to assess exactly what part the exchange rate can play in the rebalancing. But appreciation of the yuan can help [China] enhance domestic consumption and dampen some of the effects of the rise in commodity prices. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  WSJ: In order to address currency misalignments, shouldn’t the G-20 call more strongly for increased currency flexibility across the board? Noyer: The G-7 has been monitoring excessive currency fluctuations. But the world having changed and G-7 economies no longer being the dominant ones, should we adopt the same rules as we did during the ‘70s? We need to find out how to manage the system. How can we monitor capital flows, and how can we avoid the risk of capital controls hampering global trade? We need to give a clear mandate to the IMF to monitor the capital account. It would be useful to have a clear set of rules. The IMF can be an independent assessor of policies and give advice on the best course of action. WSJ: What lessons have you learned from the crisis?
When each use case is finished, and value has been delivered, lessons learnt can be applied to the next use case. To give a concrete example, an early use case we identified in last year’s review was data on lending for commercial real estate. Commercial real estate lending, or CRE, is an important sector for any central bank charged with guarding financial stability. Following the great financial crisis, Andy Haldane (then the Bank of England’s Executive Director for Financial Stability, now our Chief Economist), suggested that commercial property has contributed more to financial crises than any other area of industry outside of banking6. As Alex Brazier, his successor as Financial Stability ED subsequently put it, when commercial real estate catches a cold, the whole economy starts to shiver7. So we need good data on CRE lending. But the sector has a tradition of negotiated, paper contracts, and a lack of automation in how loans were agreed and managed. This has meant that accessing good quality data on the CRE market is difficult, both for regulators and for market participants. To help address this, industry participants are working on creating a central utility for accessing granular CRE data8. But creating this utility will mean firms need to share the data used to run their CRE businesses. And they will need a common way to identify and label core CRE data – for example a consistent way of labelling the ‘Loan amount’ of a CRE loan, or the loan’s ‘arrangement fees’.

The first reform is to improve how we write our reporting instructions. We think we can make our instructions clearer and easier for recipients to work with, meaning smoother and quicker processing and less variability in how they are interpreted. The second reform is integrating various reporting processes – breaking down barriers between external and internal reporting, between different steps of the reporting process, and between different levels of data within the process. But third and most foundational is the wider development of common data standards. This underpins the other two reforms. And we believe it can help firms and other users make the best use of data, well beyond our collection processes. Common data standards  Let me first explain what I mean by common data standards. These are simply collectively adopted rules and methods for describing and recording data. They mean standardising the format and labelling used to identify and organise data.
As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System. U.S. economic outlook Despite the swings we have seen in financial markets over the past few months and the recent divergences across different economic and financial market indicators, recent developments have not led me to make a fundamental change in my outlook for the U.S. economy. I continue to expect that the economy will expand over the course of this year at a pace slightly above its long-term trend – sufficient to push the unemployment rate down a bit further and to more fully utilize the nation’s labor resources. On inflation, although recent data have been somewhat firmer, it still appears that inflation for this year will fall short of our  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  2 percent objective for the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. However, I anticipate an eventual return to our objective as the transitory factors that have held down inflation dissipate over time. In assessing the current state of the U.S. economy, recent news has generated divergent signals. Several sectors have been showing signs of softness. Real consumer spending growth appears to have moderated somewhat from the relatively robust pace of the second half of 2015. Both new and existing home sales have flattened since the middle of last year. Finally, indicators of real business investment spending point to continued softness.

William C Dudley: The national and local economic outlook – an update Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the University of Bridgeport, Bridgeport, Connecticut, 8 April 2016. *  *  *  Jaison Abel, Jason Bram, Tony Davis, Richard Deitz, Jonathan McCarthy and Joseph Tracy assisted in preparing these remarks. Good morning. I am very pleased to be in Bridgeport and to speak with you today. I would like to give a special thanks to the University of Bridgeport for their part in making this event possible. My visit today is part of our ongoing efforts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to better understand the regional economy. We plan trips like this so that we can meet with a diverse array of stakeholders in the region to gain insights and perspectives on the local economy. These trips also allow us to hear from Main Street about the major issues and concerns affecting people and businesses in the area. Fairfield County is our first destination in 2016, and this is the second time we have visited the area in the past three years. I am looking forward to meeting with a number of different groups today. After starting our day here at the University of Bridgeport, we will meet with an organization called The WorkPlace to hear about some of the nationally-recognized programs they have successfully developed to help the long-term unemployed find jobs.
It is quite different in another country where the problems are confined to small institutions, where the ultimate aim should not be their survival in order to avoid a serious interruption in the flow of credit, but rather their removal as soon as possible at as little cost as possible. Indeed, some of the biggest developed economies witnessed, at the onset of the financial crisis, how several of their leading banks were collapsing. This was because, in addition to  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  the sudden downturn in the value of their assets, they saw the short-term funding channels on which they relied so heavily disappear. Given this scenario, the logical and no doubt inevitable reaction was to swiftly inject huge amounts of public money. Yet in Spain’s case, there was overall excess capacity in the sector and the problems were at a group of small or medium-sized institutions with a reasonably long-term financing structure. All told, the advisability of earmarking public funds to these institutions immediately was much less evident. On one hand, it is not surprising that ailing institutions should apply for public aid, if possible without conditions. But the mission of the authorities is to look out for the general interest, setting conditions for this aid that ensure the adjustment and restructuring of the sector and the creation of new, stronger and better managed institutions, of a sufficient size to gain access to wholesale funding, thus enabling them to channel funds appropriately to the economy as a whole.

The second response to the crisis drives us to equip ourselves with new tools that mitigate the effects of future crises, because experience tells us that, even assuming that all the preventive measures conceivable today are adopted, it will never be possible to do away once and for all with economic crises. The third response to a crisis does not involve preventing or adopting tools to manage future crises, but looking for the right way to manage the current crisis from which, need I remind you, we have not yet emerged. I make this distinction between the three types of response that an economic crisis always elicits so that my following remarks may be better understood. Firstly, I think that most of the huge efforts deployed to date at the global and European level in response to the crisis have focused on avoiding or mitigating future crises. Yet much less time and imagination has been used in designing and agreeing on measures to emerge from where we are. I am certain that we are now much better prepared to prevent the recurrence of a crisis such as the present one, but the problem is that we still do not know how to exit from it.