samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Analysis of Corporate Bond Liquidity. FINRA Office of the Chief Economist. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  deterioration in funding liquidity also increased the degree of systemic stress as firms were forced to sell assets, which depressed their prices, undermining the solvency of firms throughout the financial system. As I noted earlier, while funding liquidity can be considered as its own distinct subject, it does have a direct link back to market liquidity. If firms that trade and invest in securities cannot obtain funding liquidity, this will likely lead to less transactions volume, thinner markets and less overall market liquidity. It is also likely to lead to less pricing efficiency resulting in wider and more persistent disparities in the prices of similar assets. Without access to funding, leveraged players, such as hedge funds, will find it more difficult to react to transient dislocations in market prices by engaging in arbitrage – that is, buying the cheaper and selling the more expensive asset. Without a reliable source of short-term funding, market functioning can become impaired, which can further disrupt funding and market liquidity. This can be seen by looking at the relationship between the volume of dealer-funded repo backed by U.S. Treasury securities versus the size of Treasury bid-ask spreads (Exhibit 11). 6 During times of financial crisis – such as in 2008 – sharp deleveraging of dealers’ repo books coincides with an increase in Treasury bid-ask spreads. However, during non-crisis periods, this correlation is quite low.

Compared with the June projections, the ranges projected for real GDP growth have been adjusted slightly downwards. For 2005, this mainly reflects slight downward revisions of past data, while for 2006 this reflects the projected effects on disposable income of increases in oil prices. This outlook for economic activity is subject to a number of downward risks, relating mainly to higher oil prices, low consumer confidence and concerns about global imbalances. In particular, the potential further dampening impact of oil prices on the outlook for growth is being monitored very closely. Oil prices have continued to rise, increasing considerably since the beginning of the year, and developments in futures prices suggest that market participants expect the current tightness in oil markets to persist. Obviously, the situation has been further complicated by the tragic effects of Hurricane Katrina. All our thoughts are with the people of the city of New Orleans and all affected neighbouring areas and we are touched by the wave of global solidarity helping them to cope with  1/3  their immediate needs. At the same time, it remains difficult to assess the full extent of the damage and the period of time necessary for its repair. Normally, despite the significant wealth destruction resulting from such storms, the economic impact at the national level is limited to the short term and is increasingly offset by the positive impacts of rebuilding activity.
Moreover, as the use of public funds can never be completely ruled out, governments will have to agree on how to share any such potential burdens. This may require a set of binding burdensharing agreements or at least some principles that can be used in case of interventions using public funds. While I think this is doable, I do not think it is realistic to expect that the political commitment required to create such arrangements will arise anytime soon. Does this mean then that we are stuck with the trilemma? Not necessarily. One possible way forward in the short to medium run is to improve the current frameworks so that they better  19  Schoenmaker (2010). 20  A number of non-EU countries with a bank sector that has a high level of foreign ownership, including New Zeeland and Canada, have chosen such an approach. In New Zealand, branches are in principle prohibited. Every systemically important bank has to be registered as a New Zealand company. Canada used to have a similar ban on branches. In 1999, however, the law was amended to admit foreign bank branches, albeit with substantial restrictions. For instance, branches of foreign banks are not allowed to accept deposits of less than $ 000. The purpose of this restriction is to discourage retail banking operations. BIS Review 82/2010  21  match the international landscape of financial markets.

The lessons from the development history of many economies are compelling: financial liberalisation is integral to the development process but this liberalisation must be carefully sequenced if crises are to be avoided and the benefits of liberalisation maximised. In general, domestic financial reform should precede full capital account liberalisation. Let me conclude. Myanmar has embarked on a momentous journey to strengthen and develop its financial sector. Liberalising the financial sector is not a question of whether but how. MAS, through its growing partnership with the Central Bank of Myanmar, is happy to contribute to this effort where it can. We have been deeply engaged in many training programmes and stand ready to share our experiences where relevant. Singapore wants Myanmar to succeed and prosper, and realise its huge potential. I wish you fruitful discussions. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
At the same time, the financing of this process required huge flows of funds which, given the insufficiency of domestic saving, had to be met by turning to foreign saving, channelled to Spanish households and firms by credit institutions. Behind this whole process lay a real estate sector growing at an excessive pace in terms of both houses built and house prices. The excessive surge in construction was unquestionably fuelled by low interest rates and the practically unlimited supply of financing provided by foreign saving. The sound fiscal performance by the Spanish economy before the crisis, between 2005 and 2007, masked the actual situation of public finances which were distorted by extraordinary revenue of a strictly temporary nature, linked to the exuberant real estate sector. These abundant inflows discouraged the adoption of the necessary public expenditure rationalisation and control measures needed in both central and regional government. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  In short, the path followed by the Spanish economy in those years brought about substantial macroeconomic imbalances which crystallised in, among other things, a large external deficit and a sudden sharp rise in total external debt, both of which reached highs in 2007–2008. Finally and inevitably a far-reaching adjustment took place, unfortunately amid the turmoil of the international financial crisis.

Yet that should not mask the fact that belonging to a monetary union entails a series of constraints or commitments which, among other things, involve the necessary adaptation of economic agents’ behaviour and of the means of pursuing economic policy. In a monetary union, the control of two essential instruments usually at hand to combat crises passes to a supranational level and, therefore, they cease to be available to meet the specific needs of the member countries: both very short-term interest rates – the key tool used by a central bank when setting its monetary policy – and the exchange rate have been set in the European Monetary Union, since 1 January 1999, on the basis of the aggregate  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  situation of the area as a whole. They cannot be managed to serve the specific needs of any national economy. It is the national economies that have to be in a position to live with the standards set for the whole. National authorities retain control of the other economic policies, which remain under their responsibility; however, the proper functioning of the area evidently requires that their handling should observe specific common principles, preventing misalignments in one country from prompting imbalances in the rest, or from destabilising the monetary union as a whole. The way in which these common principles have been implemented has differed depending on the specific economic policy tool in question.
3  3  There are two differences compared with a Treasury Bill: first, only banks with reserve accounts can hold bank reserves, whereas a Treasury Bill is a marketable instrument; second, if a bank needs cash, say to meet withdrawals, it can convert its reserve holdings directly into cash, whereas it would need either to sell or repo its Treasury Bill holdings in the market. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The aim of quantitative easing is to drive down longer-term yields, when short-term interest rates are already at or near their floor. It does this by encouraging those who have sold assets to us to rebalance their portfolios into assets that are substitutes. That includes corporate bonds and equities, as well as a variety of other assets. There is a line of academic thinking that this mechanism will not be effective if private agents “pierce the public sector veil” and internalise the tax implications of the change in the composition of the consolidated public sector balance sheet (Eggertsson and Woodford, 2003). However, event studies of quantitative easing here (see Joyce et al., 2011) and in the United States (see Gagnon et al., 2011) do suggest that yields on a range of assets have fallen as a result of the purchases. That can be seen in the downward pressure on corporate bond yields (Chart 7) and the upward pressure on equity prices (Chart 8) during the two rounds of asset purchases (marked in grey).

This leads naturally to a related question which has been the object of recent press commentary, namely should the Bank’s holdings of gilts just be cancelled? The idea is that this would relieve the Government of having to levy the taxes to pay both the coupons on the gilts and the principal when it falls due. Government debt would fall at a stroke of the pen, apparently relieving the future burden on the taxpayer. Unfortunately this is not as good an idea as it sounds. Cancelling the gilts would deprive the Bank of the assets it needs to sell back to the market in order to suck the bank reserves out  BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  when the time comes to unwind the policy. It would also deprive the Bank of the wherewithal to pay the interest on the reserves in the meantime, so we would need either to keep Bank Rate perpetually at zero or else be willing to continue issuing additional reserves indefinitely in order to meet our obligations. One can easily see how this would eventually lead to inflation taking off. 4 In any case, it is not really clear why one would want to go down the route of cancelling the gilts. In undertaking quantitative easing, we are, for a period, replacing part of the government gilt stock with a monetary liability paying Bank Rate; cancelling the gilts is tantamount to making that period indefinite.
Mr Bäckström discusses international financial stability Speech given by the Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, Mr Urban Bäckström1, at a seminar at the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria on 9 August 1999. *  *  *  Introduction Financial stability is a topical subject in the light of events in the past decade – years that saw financial problems in a number of European countries as well as in Mexico and Asia, the devaluation of the rouble and suspended payments in Russia, considerable turbulence in western financial markets and financial unrest in Brazil. The crisis in the international financial system developed, to cite President Clinton, from being “just a few small glitches in the road” into “the worst financial crisis in fifty years”. The problem is that crises will always be intrinsically difficult to forecast. Recall that the scale of the Mexican crisis in 1994 was foreseen by very few. In South-East Asia the onset, duration and scope of the recession were all missed by the forecasting community. In the last spring, no one had anticipated the extent of the turmoil in financial markets that would be generated by the Russian devaluation and moratorium. The ways in which rising credit spreads led to losses by highly leveraged investors, liquidity shortages and the virtual drying-up of some markets were generally not foreseen. The track record shows that there are many things we do not understand and cannot predict.

Internal risk assessment procedures must recognise the interrelationships that exist between categories of risk before, not when, markets are under strain.
As a result, some people began to orient more towards the MKD. Traditionally our country, like most former Yugoslavian countries are highly Euro-rized, which means people save and use credits in Euros, with a 65% Euro to 35% MKD ratio. During the crisis and continuing today, the ratio of households and their propensity to save in MKD has elevated to 50%. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  You have been in your post for 2 years with 5 more remaining. How do you view the future development of the economy based on the government’s FDI promotional campaigns that are taking place currently across the globe? We have witnessed in the past 4–5 years several very important foreign direct investments. Some of them are so large that they already equate to roughly 17% of our exports, with the majority of the companies focused on component manufacturing for the automotive industry. There are also several large firms that are in the pipeline which have shortlisted Macedonia for their capacities. Importantly, these incoming large-scale investments are also bringing diversification to our exports, which are traditionally based in textiles, agriculture and metals. It is worth noting that several of these firms not only made the decision to enter Macedonia but are currently in expansion mode based off their operational successes here, to the degree that I predict in 3 years the current and pending FDIs can equate to 30% of our exports.

So, although growth will not be very strong I do not see them entering a recession again. Even the hardest hit Southern European and Mediterranean countries have the potential to see growth as early as next year. Which is a positive indicator for our more traditional export firms; as several of these countries act as their largest trading partners. Our confidence is building. If this year we will see a 2.2% increase in overall growth we predict next year can yield 3.5% and it can certainly grow from there to over 4% in ensuing years. First-movers entering this market will be the ones benefiting from the immediate and privileged market access Do you see Macedonia’s current inability to enter the EU due to the naming dispute with Greece as a component that is putting a relative cap on the growth figures you just mentioned? If we look from an economic point of view, judging from rating agency criteria that takes into consideration political uncertainties such as the ongoing naming issue, it is safe to assume that our rating is lower than what it could be. The resolution of this dispute and the resulting  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  increase in rating will certainly lead to greater investor confidence as well as better terms on financing in the international markets. There would also be access to more EU funds that could be used for critical infrastructure developments.
Is All Economics Local? Speech given by  Andrew G Haldane Chief Economist Bank of England  Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute (SPERI) Annual Lecture University of Sheffield 7 May 2019  The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the Bank of England or the Monetary Policy Committee. I would like to thank Shiv Chowla, Fergus Cumming, Alastair Firrell, Ryan Lovelock, Rebecca Mari, Georgina Parker and Doug Rendle for their help in preparing the text. I would like to thank Arjun Ahluwalia, Mike Anson, Kate Barker, Paul Clarke, Diane Coyle, Tom Forth, Clare Macallan and Rachael Muir for their comments and contributions. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  It is wonderful to be here at the University of Sheffield, my alma mater, to give the SPERI Annual Lecture. I have been a great admirer of SPERI’s work over the years. It has played an important role in shaping the conversation about public policy, economically and socially, locally and nationally. My topic today echoes many of the themes SPERI has championed – the role of local perspectives and policies in better understanding the economy and in shaping a better society. Tip O’Neill, the former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, famously said “all politics is local”. Those words probably apply to politics everywhere. They have also probably been true at every point in history.

These economic characteristics include: the cultural and political preferences of citizens; economic fluctuations over the business cycle; and structural features of the economy, such as industrial composition and policy transmission.46  A related aspect is the degree of specialisation or comparative advantage in an economic area. The greater this degree of specialism or comparative advantage, the stronger the case for having it recognised and supported in the setting of economic policy. Specialisation is one of the ways in which an economic area can harvest the benefits of economies of scale and scope through the agglomeration multiplier.47  On the face of it, there is a considerable degree of heterogeneity across the UK, including in terms of income, wealth, health and happiness. Other things equal, this would support locally-targeted policy  interventions. At the same time, those differences are often as large locally as they are regionally. That suggests a very decentralised setting of policy would be needed, which may come with costs. (b)  Diversity and Risk-Sharing  One of the most important of those costs is the loss of risk-sharing. A diverse economic area allows aggregate fluctuations to be smoothed-out, in the same way a diverse portfolio of assets smooths out returns to an investor. And by smoothing-out aggregate fluctuations, diverse economic areas can help smooth out local fluctuations by transferring resources between regions to insure against region-specific shocks. Another set of factors weighing in the same direction are economies of scale and scope.
In addition, the ECB and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York negotiated a US dollar/euro swap agreement on 12 September. The purpose of the agreement was to channel US dollar funds to European banks, which are not counterparties of the Federal Reserve for its discount window operations. European banks faced difficulties in raising short-term US dollar funds due to the disruption in the US financial system. Second, as to the co-operation between central banks and banking supervisors, the ECB, the national central banks and the banking supervisory authorities of all EU countries have recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding. It establishes arrangements for co-operation and sharing information with respect to risks in large-value payment systems. Third, as regards banking supervisors, the EU Economic and Financial Committee has recently reached the conclusion – also endorsed by the finance ministers – that, while the existing institutional arrangements for supervision and crisis management are adequate, cross-border co-operation needs to be fostered. The co-operative bodies of banking supervisors in the European Union – the Banking Supervision Committee of the ESCB and the Groupe de Contact – are currently addressing this recommendation. The opinion of the ECB is also that the existing arrangements can provide an adequate and flexible basis for safeguarding financial stability at the European level. We have also stressed that co-operation needs to be enhanced in order to ensure the effective execution of prudential supervision and corrective action in crises. For the single monetary policy, it is important that financial stability is effectively maintained.

Conclusion In conclusion, I should like to stress that when talking about the requirements of the euro area banking system, we are not concerned with ordinary co-operation across Member States, as is necessary on account of the internationalisation of financial firms' activities. We talk about a single banking sector. This means that only substantially reinforced co-operation, combined with convergence in supervisory policies and practices, can deliver the conditions for a continued integration of banking activities. This will mitigate the potential risks to financial stability that stem from the new channels of contagion and will, in turn, benefit euro area economic activity. BIS Review 91/2001  5
BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Table 1 International baseline scenario assumptions 2014  2015 (e) Dec.15 Report  2016 (f) Dec.15 Report  Mar.16 Report  2017 (f) Dec.15 Report  Mar.16 Report  Mar.16 Report  Terms of trade Trading partners' GDP World GDP at PPP World GDP at market exchange rates Developed ec's GDP at PPP Emerging markets' GDP at PPP External prices (in $  -1.8 3.4 3.4 2.7 1.7 4.8 -0.9  -4.2 3.0 3.1 2.5 1.9 4.0 -9.3  -4.5 2.9 3.1 2.4 1.9 4.0 -9.7  -3.8 3.2 3.4 2.8 2.1 4.4 -2.8  -4.2 2.9 3.1 2.4 1.8 4.0 -5.8  1.7 3.3 3.5 2.9 2.2 4.6 1.5  0.7 3.1 3.3 2.7 1.9 4.5 1.0  LME copper price $ WTI oil price $ Brent oil price $ Gasoline parity price $ Libor $ (nominal, 90 days)  311 93 99 731 0.2  249 49 53 466 0.3  249 49 52 467 0.3  220 43 45 373 1.0  220 40 41 398 0.7  230 49 52 384 1.6  230 45 46 420 1.5  (e) Estimate. (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

Towards this end, Bank Negara Malaysia stands ready to extend our assistance in accessing the necessary statistics on broad market trends and developments, where appropriate, to support such research and development. The emergence of new delivery channels such as the internet and mobile phones have significantly altered the traditional banking-customer relationship. Technological development has also transformed the payment systems industry, with the introduction of new payment instruments and entry of nonbanks into payment services, thus facilitating the migration to e-payments. Additionally, we are among the first in the world to migrate, on a national basis, towards the use of chip-based ATM, payment and identity cards. Through greater research and development in understanding the customer's behavior and preferences, financial players can further capitalize on these insights to develop new and more innovative products and services as well as distribution channels to meet customer demand. BIS Review 63/2006  1  In Malaysia , the changing economic and financial landscape brings about many opportunities for new products and services. With the accelerating pace of financial integration, financial institutions are presented with opportunities to broaden beyond domestic borders to capture opportunities from regional markets. Infact, we are acknowledged as being in the forefront globally in Islamic banking and finance. But these opportunities cannot be fully seized without sound research and development work. Successful financial services players must leverage on technological expertise to deliver superior products and services.