samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
36  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  36  Chart 16: Mark-ups and the slope of the Phillips curve Slope of Phillips curve  0.3  0.2  0.1 Estimated increase in global mark-ups 0.0 1.0  1.2  1.4  1.6  1.8  2.0  Mark-up level Sources: De Loecker and Eeckhout (2018), Galí (2008) model and Bank calculations. Notes: Parametrisation such that 𝛽 = 0.99, 𝜃 = 2/3, 𝛼 = 1/3, 𝜑 = 𝜎 =1. Chart 17: Global mark-ups and real interest rates Mark up  Per cent 3.5  1  3 1.2  2.5 2  1.4 1.5 1  1.6  0.5 0  1.8 1980  1984  1988  1992  1996  2000  2004  2008  2012  2016  Laubach & Williams estimate of US natural rate of interest (LHS) Global mark-up (inverted, RHS) Sources: Updated estimates from Laubach and Williams (2003) (available online), De Loecker and Eeckhout (2018) and Bank calculations. Notes: Estimate of US natural rate of interest shown here uses annual averages of quarterly Laubach and Williams estimates. We would like to thank Jan De Loecker and Jan Eeckhout for kindly sharing their series of global mark-ups.

The qualitative implications would be little changed if other mark-up shocks were used instead. 𝜃𝜋 and 𝜃𝑦 show the weights placed on the deviation of inflation from target and the output gap in the Taylor rule, respectively. The Taylor rule also contains a lagged interest rate parameter to allow for interest rate smoothing. Charts here show the deviation of annual CPI inflation, output gap and the policy rate relative to a baseline where no shock occurred. 35  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  35  Chart 14: Variability of inflation and output gap with and without mark-up shocks  Sources: Bank calculations. Notes: Chart shows the model-based variance of the inflation and the output gap for different calibrations of the Taylor rule, which alter the weight placed by the policymaker on deviations of inflation from target and output from potential. When moving from the baseline to the red markers, the various price mark-up shocks in the model are turned off. Chart 15: Variability of inflation and policy rate with and without mark-up shocks  Sources: Bank calculations. Notes: Chart shows the model-based variance of the inflation and the output gap for different calibrations of the Taylor rule, which alter the weight placed by the policymaker on deviations of inflation from target and output from potential. When moving from the baseline to the red markers, the various price mark-up shocks in the model are turned off.
Central banks probably invest greater resources than any individual agent into studying the economy, assessing the economic situation and making forecasts. Reasonably, central banks should also know more about their own intentions than any other agent. It is therefore possible to construct theoretical cases where a lower degree of transparency is preferable to a higher degree. But on the whole the research appears to indicate quite clearly that a high degree of transparency is something the central banks should aim at. It is easy to agree with this conclusion. Here I think that the demands on a public authority in a democracy have great importance. Then I believe that in practice there are limits as to how transparent a central bank can be. In some respects it is quite simply difficult to be open and clear. This applies, for example, to how much emphasis the central bank places on stabilising the real economy relative to stabilising inflation. In theoretical models this is usually represented by a special parameter in the central bank’s so-called goal function. However, placing a value on this parameter which is then published would probably be  2  Morris, S. and H.S. Shin, (2002), "The Social Value of Public Information”, American Economic Review 92, 1521-1534. 3  Svensson, L.E.O., (2006), “Social Value of Public Information: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro Transparency, Not Con,” American Economic Review 96, 448-451. BIS Review 40/2007  3  very difficult in practice.

The public authority role means that we are at the end of a delegation chain. The people have elected a parliament which has legislated on the Riksbank’s objective and appointed the General Council of the Riksbank. The General Council in turn appoints the Executive Board with six members who are to make the monetary policy decisions. This type of delegation may be appropriate when political decisions risk leading to time horizons that are too short. This problem is dealt with in monetary policy by the Riksbank having a high degree of independence and a clear statutory task. Delegation may also be appropriate if there is a question of technically complicated activities. Monetary policy is such an activity. There are also many other authorities, for example, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Civil Aviation Authority, who are responsible for technical issues that have considerable importance to society. Most people probably think that, for instance, the length of a runway at an airport or the design of the cooling system in a nuclear power station should be determined by experts and not through political voting. Some of the demands made of us on the basis of our role as authority are fairly obvious. We must, for instance, to the best of our ability try to meet the price stability target we have been allocated. We must also be able to explain in a good way to the general public why we act in the way we do.
Inflation targeting is softer around the edges than the exchange rate regimes Norway and many other countries operated earlier. The system has proved fairly robust to disturbances. Nevertheless, the soft landing of the Norwegian economy after several years of high domestic cost inflation and a low level of activity abroad must not lead us to believe that output and employment cannot show pronounced fluctuations in the future. We cannot expect the interest rate to have the same impact from one period to the next. The economy is exposed to unexpected disturbances. As a result, we cannot fine-tune economic developments, but we can avoid the largest effects when the economy is exposed to disturbances. Monetary policy’s most important contribution is to anchor inflation expectations. Experience indicates that inflation expectations remain stable even if inflation varies somewhat as long as the interest rate is used actively to moderate the variations in inflation. Given our highly open economy, we may have to accept somewhat wider variations in inflation than some other countries. Exchange rate expectations are influenced by growth in public expenditure and developments in terms of trade, although stable inflation expectations can also have a stabilising effect on exchange rate expectations. Just over a year ago, the interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage point to 1.75 per cent. Since then, the key rate has remained at this historically low level. Real interest rates are also low. Between December 2002 and March 2004, the key rate was reduced by a total of 5.25 percentage points.

Charles Bean: Sustaining the recovery Speech by Mr Charles Bean, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy of the Bank of England, at the North East Chamber of Commerce President’s Club Talk, Darlington, 10 March 2014. *  *  *  Good afternoon! The past six years have been a difficult time for businesses across the country. But at last there are unmistakable signs that a robust recovery is under way. According to the present vintage of official data, output has risen in each of the past four quarters, taking the four-quarter growth rate to a healthy 2.7%, the highest since early 2008. The message from business surveys, such as those produced by the Chambers of Commerce, is that growth has, if anything, been even stronger. Over the same period, around 400 thousand more people have found work. And consumer price inflation has fallen back to just below our 2% target. So more growth, more jobs, and stable prices – a conjunction we haven’t seen since before the financial crisis. But though the economic climate has certainly improved, it is still early days. So today I want to discuss what needs to happen if that recovery is to be sustained and what the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will be doing to support it. To date, much of the recovery has been on the back of higher consumer spending and housing investment, stimulated by a revival in confidence and improved access to secured credit.
We depend on our ability to access it, analyse it, and draw conclusions from it to set policies. Effective management and use of data is how we meet our goals. 1  A foot as we now know it is 304.8mm 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  2  Of course, we are far from alone here – many organisations rely heavily on their use of data. But we are, perhaps, different to many in that the vast majority of the data we want is generated by others rather than ourselves. The data we care about is the sum of millions of financial and economic interactions, taking place every second. And much of that data2 is captured and stored by financial institutions, as they go about serving their customers. We need to get our hands on that data. We need data on the financial system in aggregate and also on specific markets within it, to help us understand where risks are emerging and to help us calibrate policies to maintain stability. And we need data about individual regulated firms, for our work as supervisor and as resolution authority. So we have built data collection processes to give us that data. We publish reporting instructions. Firms then go through various steps: they interpret our instructions, identify the right data within their systems, put in place processes to integrate, cleanse and check the data, and then sign it off and deliver it to us.

139 of the 199 authorized institutions in Hong Kong are either branches or subsidiaries of banking groups incorporated outside of the territory. An important function of the new service is to enable financial institutions to make use of securities held in one of the partner systems as collateral to conduct secured borrowing in the Hong Kong dollar or renminbi in Hong Kong. As an example, a bank in Europe can make use of its securities held with Euroclear Bank or J.P. Morgan to borrow Hong Kong dollar to meet the liquidity needs of its Hong Kong subsidiary. The enhanced capability of authorized institutions to manage the liquidity needs in the local currency, no doubt, will help to maintain financial stability in Hong Kong. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The facility will also substantially strengthen Hong Kong’s role as the global hub for offshore renminbi business. Being the first mover in developing offshore renminbi business, Hong Kong has the largest offshore renminbi liquidity pool, amounting to RMB 674 billion at the end of April 2012, and has developed a vibrant CNH market and the largest offshore RMB bond market. More foreign banks are either choosing to have a base in Hong Kong or are using RMB correspondent banking services provided by banks in Hong Kong. As at the end of May 2012, there were 196 banks participating in Hong Kong’s renminbi clearing platform. Of these, 170 are foreign-owned or located overseas.
These include: •  Stable macroeconomic environment as reflected in single digit inflation, reduction in lending interest rates and a stable exchange rates  •  Amendments/Harmonisation of financial sector legislation such as the Development Bank of Zambia (DBZ) Act, the National Savings and Credit Act (NSCA), the Pensions and Insurance Act, the Building Societies Act (BSA) and the Banking and Financial Services Act (BFSA) in 2005. •  Establishment of a credit reference bureau in 2006; and Promulgation of microfinance regulations in 2006. Honourable Minster – The production of market knowledge on the supply and demand for financial services in Zambia was identified as one of the priority areas under the FSDP. In this regard, FinMark Trust of South Africa was contracted by our cooperating partners the Swedish International Development Agency (Sida) and the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) to undertake this important activity and subsequently, the FinScope Zambia 2005 Survey, a comprehensive demand-side survey of consumer interactions with financial markets in Zambia, was conducted in November 2005. The main objective of the survey was to measure access to and use of financial services, along with how people manage their finances and what drives their financial behaviour. Honourable Minister and Invited Guests - This morning we are here to share with you, the findings of the FinScope Zambia 2005 Survey. These findings are expected to play an important role in profiling demand for financial services in Zambia.

It is my hope that policy makers and financial service providers will utilise this information to develop strategies that will lead to the expansion and improvement of financial access for our people. BIS Review 115/2006  1  In Conclusion – May I emphasise that the nation is looking forward to the findings of the FinScope Zambia 2005 Survey which will help us fully understand the financial landscape in Zambia and therefore open up new market segments and allow us expand accessibility to financial services in Zambia necessary for reducing poverty. The report of the FinScope Zambia 2005 Survey will be posted to the Bank of Zambia website, www.boz.zm, for public information. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 115/2006
1 Article 3.3 of the Treaty on the European Union. 2 Article 127.5 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 3 The monetary policy strategy review: some preliminary considerations, Speech by Christine Lagarde, President  of the ECB, at the “ECB and Its Watchers XXI”conference, 30 September 2020 4 www.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/2020.05.25_sep_en_cl.pdf 5  See Blanchard & Summers (2020), Automatic Stabilizers in a Low-Rate Environment, AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol 110, May. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches

This assessment has to be seen outside the narrow context of the banking sector. First, it shows that Bulgaria can be a successful and full participant in euro area institutions, given that the Banking Union is the first such institution in which the country has participated; and second, it is a good example of institutional development to be followed in an environment of still serious institutional deficits. In 2021, we also marked one year since the Bulgarian Lev joined the EU Exchange Rate Mechanism. This participation confirms and further proves the currency stability of the country. Another important strategic aspect is the consolidation process continuing in our banking sector. This process follows global trends of seeking to streamline the structure and efficiency of the banking sector in the light of increasing competition and the pressure by new providers of 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  financial services, as well as rising costs of complying with regulatory and legal norms. In spite of the difficult and complicated environment created by the pandemic, in 2021 we saw the biggest acquisition, in terms of size and price, in the Bulgarian banking sector. A deal like this i s the most accurate market evaluation of the condition of the banking sector and its attractiveness to strategic investors. Therefore, the sector stayed in very good shape and so far succeeded through the pandemic.
Sabine Lautenschläger: Digital na(t)ive? Fintechs and the future of banking Statement by Ms Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, at an ECB Fintech Workshop, Frankfurt am Main, 27 March 2017. * * * We will never know who did it and when exactly it was done – all of that is lost in the mists of time. But about 4,000 years ago, one of our ancestors invented the wheel. It was one of the most important inventions in the entire history of humanity. Ever since, our lives have been shaped by innovations. Some of these innovations have made our life better – just think of vaccines or the telephone. Others have had more ambivalent impact – think of nuclear power. In any case, it is always hard to guess where an innovation will take us. And it is all too easy to get it wrong. As the President of IBM said in 1943: “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” He got it wrong, it seems. And so did Robert Metcalfe in 1995. As the founder of a tech company, he predicted that “the internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” The internet did not collapse. Instead, it has changed our lives. Could you live without the internet? Could you live without a mobile phone? Our entire life has become digital, and this includes the way we do banking.

Overall, factors that affect inflation showed low activity intensity and prices of other goods of the basket do not signal for inflationary pressures on the economy. From the macroeconomic perspective, the downtrend of annual inflation is dictated primarily by rapid decline of pressures on the supply side, notably: slowdown of commodities price rise in international markets and low inflation in our main trade partner countries; cancelling out of the administered price rise effect; and stability of the national currency. Although these developments had been factorised by our analyses and projections, their influence was higher than expected. On the other hand, inflationary pressures originating from the aggregate demand continued to be low, in the context of below-potential economic growth and anchored expectations on inflation. Figures on real economy developments in early 2012 are scarce. Indirect statistical data, available for the monetary, fiscal and trade sectors of the economy, signal for slow economic growth in the first quarter of the year. As expected, aggregate demand was sustained less by the fiscal stimulus, in response to the prudent fiscal behaviour for 2012. Similarly, the contribution of foreign demand, during this period, is assessed as low, owing to economic activity slowdown in our partner countries. Moreover, despite signals for its recovery, the domestic private demand remains slow, given the consumers and private business hesitation to spend and invest. Fiscal sector data for January reveal positive budget balance for this year, about ALL 1.6 billion.
And, simultaneously, the role of customer service departments needs to be bolstered, with the focus not only on improving the treatment of complaints, but also on ensuring that they serve as an alert mechanism for conduct risks, so that managers are promptly aware of the areas of customer relations giving rise to conflict or dissatisfaction. Thus, a comprehensive approach to customer relations is required. A satisfied customer is one of the main assets of any bank and the basis for sustained profitability (see Chart 6). Adapting to the new regulatory framework and strengthening solvency I shall now turn to the fourth important challenge facing the Spanish banking industry: adapting to the new regulatory framework. I will start with one of the elements introduced in the context of Basel III: the inclusion of macro-prudential tools to supplement microprudential regulation and supervision. 6/11  From a financial stability perspective, providing supervisors with macro-prudential tools would allow them to better adjust financial expansions, on the one hand cushioning the impact of contractions and, on the other, helping financial institutions to continue to perform their function of financing the real economy in times of tension. The arsenal of macro-prudential tools has indeed been expanded significantly since the financial crisis. Apart from the countercyclical capital buffer, we have the systemic risk buffer, the buffers for global and local systemically important banks, the possibility to limit excessive risk concentrations, to increase capital requirements and to review the risk weighted assets for real estate exposures.

These tools will allow us supervisors to develop macro-prudential policies that interact with micro-prudential policies and monetary policy. However, creating macro-prudential tools is not sufficient. To ensure their effectiveness, they must be appropriately assigned from an institutional point of view to avoid so-called inaction bias. In this respect, the Spanish Government has announced that a macroprudential authority is to be set up, composed of representatives of the Ministry of the Economy and Enterprise, the Banco de España and the National Securities Market Commission. Spain was one of the few European countries still without a national macro-prudential authority. By setting up this new authority, Spain is complying with the recommendation of the European systemic risk board, which urged EU Member States to establish such an authority. The aim of this authority will be to carry out the macro-prudential supervision of the Spanish financial system, in order to contribute to the prevention or mitigation of systemic risk. For this purpose, the Banco de España is due to be given new powers in this area. These include, notably, the possibility of activating tools, such as the sectoral countercyclical capital buffer, limiting sectoral credit concentration and others relating to credit standards. Giving the Banco de España these new macro-prudential tools clearly strengthens the Spanish supervisory system and brings it into line with best international practice.