samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
And, perhaps most importantly, we should continue to engage in discussions like this one, so we work together to identify lessons learned and best practices as we pursue our common goals of a safe, sound, and stable banking system. I think we should be optimistic that with the right tools and technology, the right level of commitment, and the right people at the table, we can build cultural capital and mitigate misconduct risk. We all have a role to play in mobilizing our organizations to advance this critical work. Thank you for your attention. 1 5/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  1 I would like to thank Stephanie Chaly, Robert Fitchette, Jim Hennessy, and Jackie McCormack for help preparing  these remarks. 2 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Reforming Culture and Behavior in the Financial Services Industry:  Progress, Challenges, and the Next Generation of Leaders, June 18, 2018 and Workshop on Culture Measurement and Assessment, June 21, 2017. 3 See SR 16–11: Supervisory Guidance for Assessing Risk Management at Supervised Institutions with Total  Consolidated Assets Less than $ Billion, June 8, 2016 and SR 12–17 / CA 12–14: Consolidated Supervision Framework for Large Financial Institutions, December 17, 2012 for details for small and large banks, respectively. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Board requests comment on proposed guidance that would clarify Board’s supervisory expectations related to risk management for large financial institutions, January 4, 2018.

15 Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Board issues joint statement encouraging depository institutions to  explore innovative approaches to meet BSA/anti-money laundering compliance obligations and to further strengthen the financial system against illicit financial activity, December 3, 2018. 16 Rob Gruppetta, AI and Financial Crime: Silver Bullet or Red Herring?, November 11, 2018. 6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches
In this scenario, the combination of slower growth, smaller surpluses in Asia and higher risk premia could move global interest rates higher, increasing the burden of corporate and household debts and challenging the creditworthiness of some sovereigns. Contrary to what you might have heard, it isn’t easy to win a trade war. If the UK has been somewhat more inwardly focused of late, it has been for good reason. In many respects, Brexit is the first test of a new global order and could prove the acid test of whether a way can be found to broaden the benefits of openness while enhancing democratic accountability. Brexit can lead to a new form of international cooperation and cross-border commerce built on a better balance of local and supranational authorities. In these respects, Brexit could affect both the short and long-term global outlooks. It is in the interests of everyone, arguably everywhere – from Frobisher’s grave to Frobisher’s Bay - that a Brexit solution that works for all is found in the weeks ahead. 30  While economic, policy and geopolitical uncertainties are very high, several market-based risk metrics are not. Credit spreads, the VIX and equity implied volatilities are below the 50th percentile of their historic distributions, as is equity risk premium in the US. Despite recent volatility, high-yield corporate bond spreads also remain below pre-crisis averages.

A harder landing would have significantly larger effects, as these channels would likely be accompanied by negative spillovers to global confidence. The final caution concerns the future of globalisation. Trade tensions abroad and Brexit debates at home are manifestations of fundamental pressures to reorder globalisation. It is possible that new rules of the road will be developed for a more inclusive and resilient global economy. At the same time, there is a risk that countries turn inwards, undercutting growth and prosperity for all. Concerns over this possibility are already impairing investment, jobs and growth, creating a dynamic that could become self-fulfilling. While the current cycle of globalisation has brought widespread prosperity—lifting a billion people out of poverty and raising output per capita up 40% in both the UK and globally since the mid-1990s—it has also given rise to three imbalances that threaten its sustainability. First, external imbalances, with large trade surpluses emerging in some regions and big deficits in others. Though somewhat smaller than on the eve of the crisis, the sum of current account surpluses remains significant at 2% of global GDP. The sustainability of these imbalances is made more challenging by the asymmetry at the heart of the international monetary system. As the world economy has been reordered with the weight of emerging market economies rising from 40% to 60% of activity in the past quarter century, the US dollar is as dominant today as it ever was.23 This contributes economically to higher risks of sudden stops and politically to greater mercantilist pressures.
I have already applauded the debate in Basel, and at the FSA, on developing a regime for supplementary capital requirements for firms that are especially interwoven into the system. I would add only two points this evening. First, just as top-down stress testing could be a useful input to utilising the “time series” instruments I have been outlining, so the “cross-sectional” add-ons would need to draw upon judgments about how distress at a particular firm would ripple through the system. Stress testing could be one useful part of that. But it would also require a deep knowledge of the plumbing of the financial system – the way payments, settlements and collateral transfers operate. And so my second point is that the debate about how best to regulate the banking system must not distract policymakers or practitioners from improving the plumbing, the infrastructure of our markets. This crisis would have been unimaginably worse without effectively collateralised payment systems, many over-the-counter derivative contracts and central-counterparty clearing houses. Although progress in those areas proceed below the radar of many, we must renew our emphasis on effective financial market infrastructure. Conclusions The current crisis has reminded everyone that our primary interest in regulating the banking sector is the preservation of systemic stability and so of the vital services banks perform in our economy and financial markets. There are two great lessons from the crisis. One is that important banks can fail and so we would be wise to have robust resolution regimes and plans.

And they will fail in circumstances that, at least with – and possibly without – hindsight, could have been prevented. So it has been a mistake, over recent decades and in a number of countries, to claim to have a regulatory framework that is not premised on zero failures when we lacked a resolution regime that could cope with failures of even quite simple banks. In the UK, this was cruelly exposed in August 2007 when Northern Rock failed, denting confidence in UK mortgage banks generally. That is the backdrop to the suggestion, stressed by the Governor earlier this week, that the market should explore whether banks can raise contingent capital from private sector investors. Beyond that, we need an effective resolution regime. The UK does now have a decent resolution regime for small and medium-sized banks, which we used directly for the Dunfermline Building Society and indirectly in getting a few cases satisfactorily worked through. More important for today, it is the origin of the Bank pushing the “Living Wills” idea, which dovetailed with international conclusions about the horrendous problems of managing cross-border crises. The G20 heads of government have made it clear that something must be done about this. It is being pursued by the Financial Stability Board, a grouping of regulators, central bankers and finance ministry officials drawn from the G20 countries and a few other key centres.
BIS Review 65/2009  9

Thus, the more open and aggressive equity market environment of the anglo-saxon model seems to have delivered ultimately the fitter economy. But we should remember that the stock market doesn’t serve everyone who is looking for equity finance. There is a large population of smaller and mediumsized businesses which cannot aspire to access the market. Nevertheless they are important contributors to the economy and need equity funding. Few, if any, economies have been able to match the USA when it comes to enterprise culture and the relatively abundant sources of funding available to SMEs. Even in Hong Kong, where we pride ourselves as being highly market-oriented and enterprising, we cannot claim that life is a bed of roses for SMEs. But I am encouraged by the launch of the Growth Enterprise Market - the stock exchange’s second board – which fills a particular gap, albeit only one, in the needs of smaller or younger companies. The final years of this century have also seen inflation largely conquered across much of the world economy. Low inflation should provide a propitious climate for the issuance of medium and long-term debt instruments. In Hong Kong the debt market has been growing, although more at the short end than the long, and the secondary market is not greatly active, except for Exchange Fund bills. There is of course nothing wrong in investors wanting to hold instruments to maturity; indeed, in one sense it may be interpreted as a sign of confidence.
Thanks to the promotional efforts of various payment service providers, people in Hong Kong are very used to making contactless payment. Some statistics show that among non-  2  2  Sources: PayPal Consumer Online and Mobile Shopping Insights 2012. BIS central bankers’ speeches  cash transactions, the portion of contact-less transactions amounts to about 85%. 3 With such a technology-savvy population, there is a huge market that m-commerce merchants can tap into. (b)  Policy support  18. Now, let me turn to “policy support”. Development of the policy framework for mobile payment services started a few years back. In 2012, the HKMA commissioned a consultant to examine how our city should best embrace the m-payment technology, and promote creativity through competition, while ensuring sufficient protection of the users in terms of prepaid stored value and data security. The consultant made two recommendations. “Soft” infrastructure – best practices 19. The first one focused on building the critical “soft” infrastructure. The consultant suggested that the HKMA should work with the industry to develop a set of standards to ensure inter-operability and system security. We agreed on this point, and worked proactively with the banking industry to produce the Best Practices for the NFC Mobile Payment, which was released in 2013. 20. This common set of technical standards has laid the foundation for achieving security and interoperability among different m-payment services.

Peter Pang: Promoting the prudent development of m-payment in Hong Kong Speech by Mr Peter Pang, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the “Tapping the potential of mobile commerce with innovation” Conference, Hong Kong, 18 September 2014. *  *  *  Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, 1. I would like to thank the South China Morning Post for inviting me to talk about the exciting topic of mobile commerce. I. (a)  Prelude – a quick recap of the technology evolution The past  2. Mobile technology has come a long way over the past two decades. I recently came across an article that indicates that in an upcoming technology exhibition in London, a futuristic smartphone will be put on show. It offers a wide range of computing features, and has a stylish screen. If you carry it on the street today, I am quite sure it will have a “wow effect” no less than any other new model that is on offer right now. 3. Don’t get me wrong – I am not talking about any latest phone models. I am talking about the first “smart-phone” in the world, the IBM Simon, which went on sale in the summer of 1994, and would be put on display in London’s Science Museum in October this year. 1 4. The model disappeared from the market around two years after its launch.
Phase IV (from 1 January to 31 March 2015) In the fourth phase of the consolidation programme, we expect to complete the mergers and acquisitions by addressing post-merger issues. Further, we will assist and facilitate the parties to resolve any concerns that have emerged during the merger process. The modified regulatory framework too is expected to be issued at the beginning of 2015, and awareness programmes will be conducted to educate the key management personnel and staff of the financial institutions on the same. Overall progress of the consolidation programme From the inception of the financial sector consolidation programme in January 2014, the progress made so far by the banks and NBFIs is commendable. As of mid-September 2014, 8 Banks and 29 NBFIs have confirmed their merger and acquisition transactions under the consolidation programme while a few cash-strapped NBFIs are progressing under the restructuring process. In addition, 4 banks and 4 NBFIs are in the process of finalising their consolidation plans. The Consolidation Unit strongly believes that the Central Bank is in a position to meet the original time plan set for end 2014 for the completion of the consolidation process. Conclusion Ladies and gentlemen, let me now conclude my oration by emphasising on a few points. We all know that consolidating a diverse group of financial institutions is a very complex process and a challenging task. Sri Lanka has followed a very novel model in reforming the financial sector in a non-crisis environment, which gives us the comfort to resolve these complex issues smoothly.

The credit for this clear paradigm shift, elevating our economy into new heights, goes to our development strategy articulated under the “Mahinda Chintana: Vision for the Future”, which was first introduced in 2005 and then redesigned in 2010, aligning strategies to overcome the challenges in the post-conflict economy. Our dream of transforming Sri Lanka into the “Wonder of Asia” is an important topic that is being broadly discussed among the academia, international agencies and many Heads of Governments. Ladies and gentlemen, I hope most of you can remember our 60th Anniversary Oration Series held in 2010. There, one of the eminent speakers was Dr. Ngozi Okongo-Iweala, then Managing Director of the World Bank and former Finance Minister of Nigeria. She spoke on the topic “Becoming the Wonder of Asia: Accelerating the Inclusive Growth in Sri Lanka”. She had carefully studied the development plan of the Government, the “Mahinda Chintana: Vision for the Future” released in 2010, prepared just one year after the ending of the civil conflict. She was highly impressed about our development plan and explained the actions needed to make our vision a reality. She said, I quote, “It’s bold and ambitious. It’s good to be ambitious. It is the right time for Sri Lanka to think big”. She further said, “The vision is very clear and reminds us of a Japanese proverb ‘A vision without action is a day dream; action without a vision is a nightmare’”.
Annual spending from the Fund is subject to a spending rule, whereby the government commits to limit spending. Over time spending should not exceed the estimated expected real return on the Fund’s investments, set at 4 per cent per year. This implies that the Fund is expected to become a permanent savings account. 4. At the outset, there was already an investment management operation in the Bank, for the foreign reserves. But when it became clear in 1997 that the Pension Fund would be growing fast, we decided to set up a separate management unit, now called Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM). Our challenge was to build a business organisation within a traditional civil service culture. The new unit recruited investment professionals from outside the Bank as well as people from the existing reserve management operations. NBIM was explicitly defined as a business unit, which should be different from the rest of the central bank in many respects. To avoid any suspicion that NBIM would benefit from proprietary central bank information, the new unit was placed completely outside the decision-making processes in the monetary policy and financial stability area, with no access to confidential information. The fact that the Pension Fund does not invest in Norwegian markets is also important to avoid conflicts of interest: There is no direct link to our monetary policy operations. 5.

Figure 2 Trading partners' growth  Copper price $  (annual change, percent)  4.5  4.0  4.5  Report Mar.18 Report Jun.17 Report Sep.17 Report Dec.17  4.0  3.5  3.5  3.0  3.5  Report Mar.18 Report  3.5  Dec.17  2.5 3.0  2.5  Avg. Avg. 00-07 10-15  3.0  16  17  18  19  20  2.5  2.5 Report Sep.17  2.0  2.0 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20  Source: Central Bank of Chile. 7  3.0  Figure 3 Real monetary policy rate (*) (percent)  4  4  Mexico  3  3  Brazil  2  2  South Africa Indonesia  1  Colombia  1  Peru N. Zealand  0  0  Chile  -1 Australia (*) Estimated as the current MPR minus inflation expected one year ahead. Source: the central bank of respective country. -1  Figure 4 Gross fixed capital formation  Consumption  (real annual change, percent)  (real annual change, percent)  20  20  10  10  15  15  8  8  10  10  6  6  5  5  0  0  4  4  -5  -5  2  2  -10  -10  0  0  10  12  14  16  18(f)  20(f)  10  (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile.
And that expectation is factored into their own behaviour, whether it is negotiating wages, setting prices, or deciding how much to borrow and consume. All of that goes a long way towards ensuring that inflation is well anchored to the target. Of course, from month to month, inflation will still vary somewhat around 2½%. In recent months, RPIX has been a little below target, and there has even been some interest in whether it might reach 1.5%, the point at which the Governor would have to write a formal letter to the Chancellor explaining what was going on. The pick up of inflation to 2.6% in January has silenced this discussion, at least for the time being. We pore over the reasons for such developments in enormous detail at the Bank. But in the bigger scheme of things these month-to-month movements are quite small, and are I hope likely to play very little - if any - role in the key decisions of your businesses, or those you represent. People often ask if our relative success at targeting inflation has come at a cost in terms of lost output or employment. It is increasingly accepted, I think, that there is no such trade-off in the long run. And, looking at recent data, it is hard to see a trade-off even in the short run. Unemployment remains close to its lowest level for a quarter of a century - a trend seen in Northern Ireland just as much as in the UK as a whole.

But not all of the sectoral differences that have emerged are necessarily unwelcome. Indeed, for those seeking to ensure stability in the economy as a whole, it is really just as well that consumption growth has remained robust at a time when the net trade position of the economy has worsened so markedly. And, as recent MPC minutes show, that has been our intention. So long as the world economy recovers quickly enough to pick up the slack as consumption slows, it may be that we in the UK will avoid the sharp recessions of previous cycles. Of course, this is a big 'if', and I do not want to imply that I am excessively confident that this will occur. Rapid consumption growth brings with it considerable risks, not least when it is financed by a large build up in consumer debt. But it is the MPC's central expectation that we will escape a serious slowdown at current interest rates. In the last few weeks, we have seen some tentative signs of an unwinding of some of the more severe sectoral gaps in the economy, with the slowdown in retail sales growth since the start of the year, and an encouraging pickup in a number of surveys of business confidence and investment intentions. 2  BIS Review 18/2002  Overall, it seems to me that the risks around the outlook for UK inflation are fairly evenly balanced.
Svein Gjedrem: Economic perspectives Annual address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of the Norges Bank, at the meeting of the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank, Gausdal, 15 February 2001. *  *  *  Introduction Norway’s economy is today characterised by substantial petroleum revenues, sharp growth in government expenditure, a tight labour market and high cost inflation. High oil prices and sizeable petroleum production are contributing to surpluses on the current account and the central government budget. This has also resulted in a vigorous rise in Norway’s disposable income. The current account surplus in 2000, which was equivalent to about 14 per cent of GDP, is among the highest surpluses recorded by an OECD country in the post-war period. The total general government budget surplus also rose sharply, reaching 14½ per cent of GDP. Surplus as a percentage of GDP and income growth for Norway 16  16  Current account balance Public sector Disposable income (growth rates)  12 8  12 8  4  4  0  0  -4  -4 1998  1999  2000  With the exception of a brief pause in growth from the summer of 1998, the Norwegian economy has been expanding since 1993. Employment has risen and unemployment has fallen to just over 3 per cent. A shortage of labour in many sectors has resulted in a relatively sharp growth in labour costs in Norway.

Creating the right incentives, consistent with good market practices and sound risk management, appears to be an important way of promoting the safety and soundness of the financial system and therefore a good way of sustaining both the stability and growth of the economy. This is not only relevant for prudential regulation; other areas such as accounting should also be consistent with this broad perspective. This consideration underlines the importance of taking seriously certain concerns such as procyclicality. In my view Basel II goes in the right direction. I am convinced that when banking systems are adequately capitalised, well-managed and risks are correctly assessed within the appropriate time horizon and the financial system becomes more stable, less procyclical, better able to promote sustainable growth, and more resilient during periods of distress. My second reflection is that one of the most significant conclusions of the analysis of the recent economic and financial evolution of the world economy has been the resilience of banking systems in most countries. In my view, this resilience has been the result not just of the presence of sufficient capital in the system, but also of improvements in banks’ risk management systems. I think we owe the industry a special vote of congratulations with respect to the latter, but we also owe it a commitment on the part of supervisors to continue to support such developments. This is exactly what we are all trying to do with the proposals for a new Capital Accord, which I would like to address now.