samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In this case, the additional revenues will not influence the economy, but be invested abroad via the Government Petroleum Fund. On the other hand, if the additional revenues are absorbed in the domestic economy through increased government budget expenditure, total domestic demand is influenced. Increased expenditure requires an increase in the public sector’s use of resources, primarily labour. In this case, 1% of GDP is substantial. If such an increase in oil revenues is used domestically, it corresponds, for example, to around half of average annual growth in the economy. If the private sector of the economy also expands while the economy is nearing capacity limits, such a policy will heighten the pressures on resources in the economy, which in turn fuels inflationary pressures. Unfortunately there was a clear tendency of such a policy in 1996, 1997 and 1998. The non-oil government budget deficit was indeed reduced, but the division of responsibility in economic policy required a more active tightening. Rather than conducting a tight policy and countering the higher  9  BIS Review 20/1999  growth in the business sector, the increase in budget expenditure entailed that the public sector also contributed to fuelling pressures in the labour market. As a result, a small change in oil prices had the effect it was not intended to have: it was accompanied by an increase in public sector demand. Foreign exchange market participants observed that economic policy was not oriented towards containing pressures in the labour market.

It would not be easy to reduce the central government deficit in a situation with declining oil revenues. We might, of course, be fortunate enough to experience a rise in oil prices again, so that we do not have to deal with this problem. Perhaps the oil price is abnormally low at present. But it is important to be aware that the government, in expanding welfare programmes and public sector activities, has not taken due account of the possibility that oil prices will remain low over a longer period. 15  BIS Review 20/1999  We have already witnessed a depreciation of the krone in response to the deterioration in Norway’s terms of trade. This may reflect expectations of continued low oil prices and lower revenues in the long term. This also compromises confidence in the government’s long-term financial position. It is risky to increase expenditure and reduce taxes when there is doubt regarding the long-term balance of the economy. An expansionary fiscal policy could increase uncertainty and the fluctuations in the exchange rate, and reduce Norges Bank’s freedom of manoeuvre. On the contrary, fiscal policy should be oriented to provide room for lower interest rates that can counter a cyclical downturn in an environment of stable wage and price inflation. The authorities must be very cautious about further embedding fixed long-term priorities in the central government budget.
Of course, this evolution is closely connected to the introduction of the euro and the creation of a single capital market. Some major players are emerging in each country of the EEC. Clearly, we have new and exciting challenges ahead of us on the way to European banking consolidation. The bodies in charge of banking regulations, along with those responsible for the supervision of credit and financial institutions, keep a close eye on these developments. The stance of national regulators in Europe is based on the strong and efficient coordination of banking and financial supervision, with ongoing flows of information and, where necessary, coordinated actions which may lead to the designation of a lead regulator. Recently, several examples of such coordinated supervision between European banking authorities, such as that between the Belgian and French authorities for the DEXIA group, have shown that national supervisors are well prepared to cope with large cross-border groups. 2.3  Finally, let me say a few words on the situation of the euro in the foreign exchange market. BIS Review 52/2000  4  We have heard quite frequently during the recent months, and especially when the euro weakened against the dollar, that the cause for this situation was to be found in the supposed absence of structural reforms that disadvantaged the euro zone vis-à-vis its main competitors. In the same vein, it is often said that the poor performance of the euro reflects the growth differential between the euro zone economy and the US economy.

Over this twoday period, we have lined up a panel of distinguished speakers, including the Honourable Prime Minister of Malaysia himself as well as Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia. The invited speakers are from various prestigious institutions, domestic and international with unique expertise and experiences. You can be rest assured that the speakers we are bringing to you are renowned in their own field and their views are well sought after by global investors and the financial fraternity. The major highlight of this conference is the keynote address by the Honourable Dato' Seri Abdullah bin Haji Ahmad Badawi, the Prime Minister of Malaysia who is also the Finance Minister. His address will offer invaluable insights into Malaysia's policy and strategies to sustain its strong growth performance. The next significant highlight of this conference is a speech by Tan Sri Dato' Seri Dr. Zeti Akhtar Aziz, the Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia, who will touch on investment opportunities in Malaysia in an evolving global environment. This speech is timely given so much interest shown by both domestic and international investors in the Malaysian economy. Both the Prime Minister and Governor will offer invaluable insights into strategic orientation of important policies that will chart the Malaysian economy going forward. Therefore, these are the main events not to be missed. Of course you should not miss other speakers too! They will touch on various topics according to their areas of expertise.
As a central banker, I would date the outbreak of the financial market crisis to the beginning of August, when overnight interbank rates increased sharply. The first central banks to react were the ECB and the SNB on 9 August, when both banks conducted extraordinary finetuning operations. Soon afterwards, other central banks followed suit, also injecting additional liquidity. 4  For a discussion of the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets see Ph. Hildebrand (2006), “Monetary Policy and Financial Markets”, speech given to the Annual Conference of the Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, 7 April 2006, or Th. J. Jordan (2007), “Globalisierung und Finanzmärkte: Herausforderungen und Chancen”, speech given at the ETH Zurich, 13 November 2007. 5  Of course, to retain credibility, the central bank must refrain from deceiving the markets, i.e. from announcing future action without actually intending to act. 6  As measured by the Case Shiller Composite Index. BIS Review 71/2008  3  So far, there have been three waves of money market strains. After subsiding somewhat in late September, the strains increased again in November, exacerbated by year-end pressures. The third wave started in March. The worst peak of the financial market crisis so far was attained in mid-March, when Bear Stearns was taken over by JPMorgan. The takeover, which was facilitated by the Federal Reserve, resulted in a calming of markets. Since mid-March, financial markets have improved somewhat, with the exception of money markets, which are still rather tense. 4.

Action by central banks  I would now like to discuss in more detail the ways in which central banks reacted to the financial market crisis. Given that operational frameworks differ from one central bank to another, and given the highly technical nature of the subject, I will restrict myself to some stylised facts relating to the actions taken by central banks in general and those taken by the Swiss National Bank in particular. Central banks responded to the financial market turmoil gradually, by progressively shaping and expanding their instruments. At the outset, central banks tried to counter rising shortterm money market rates by applying their existing instruments in a more flexible way, by adjusting the size, frequency, and the conditions of their discretionary open market operations. For example, in order to react to the fluctuations in the demand for reserves, the SNB now conducts more frequent fine-tuning operations than in the past. Although the enhanced use of fine-tuning operations managed to stabilize overnight rates, term spreads remained high. Central banks felt that it was necessary to address this situation, because it not only reflected an increase in credit risk but was also a sign of a lack of liquidity in these markets. Central banks therefore introduced new facilities with longer maturities and offered exceptional long-term financing operations. For example, in September, the SNB carried out a CHF 5 billion repo auction with a three-month maturity. Until then, the maturity of its daily repo auctions had usually been one week.
Results of the survey show that more than half of interviewees (54%), in terms of a 500 Lekë banknote, in an instinctive manner either wrongly identify or read its value, by adding a “0” to turn its value into “old lek”. The situations or sets where the interviewees, more than 80%, responded that habitually speak with the outdated term “old lek”, are mainly informal or family ones: small shops or fruit and vegetables markets; conversations with family members, friends and colleagues; followed by means of public transport. On the other side, data show that the wrong communication of Lek value occurs very rarely across financial institutions (banks, non-banks, etc. ), only 28.1%, or in the offices of public administration (39.4%), although it might be expected 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  these figures would have been even lower In addition to public and financial institutions, another strongminded factor affecting the communication of public is media, the written and audio -visual media. According to 20% of public perception, media always or frequently communicate prices and monetary values in “old lek”. This percentage, though a low one, sheds light on the need for a higher inclusion of media in the efforts to completely eliminate this phenomenon, particularly by bearing into mind its mission to transmit the information truly and accurately to the public, coupled with its educational role.

Gent Sejko: Address at the “Neither old nor new, I am simply Lek!” awareness campaign launch Address by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the launching of awareness campaign: “Neither old nor new, I am simply Lek!”, 17 November 2021. * * * Honourable Professor Civici, Honourable Dr. Treska, Dear participants, colleagues, and media representatives, I have the pleasure to welcome you in this very important day for the Bank of Albania on the occasion of launching the awareness campaign: “Neither old nor new, I am simply Lek!”. This new initiative of our institution in the field of financial education is part of a broad corpus of programmes and projects in the framework of comprehending and taking care of the national currency and banknote. It is the materialisation of the Bank of Albania’s efforts to fulfil the recommendations of the Albanian Parliament embodied in the resolution on the assessment of our institution activity, for eliminating the use of outdated terms “new lek” -“old lek”. We are conscious, that unfortunately, this happens perpetually, not only in day-to-day communication amid citizen, also in their economic and financial interactions, thus becoming either intentionally or not a source of misunderstandings. Before presenting this campaign, allow me to briefly address this phenomenon on the historical perspective, how it has arisen.
The Fund has invested considerable efforts in promoting transparency and developing standards and codes in cooperation with the World Bank, the Bank for International Settlements and other organizations. Remarkable progress has been made in this area but we realize that broad implementation of these standards will take time, although this is time well spent as improved practices and comparability will increase the stability of the international financial system. We believe that the next steps should be to harmonize accounting standards at world level. The Nordic-Baltic Constituency encourages all member countries to support the efforts of the International Accounting Standards Board to reach a consensus on accounting standards and principles. Furthermore, we welcome the new steps taken to increase the Fund’s transparency, especially the policy of moving to presumptive publication of all Article IV reports and the required publication of documents in exceptional access cases. Promoting Economic Progress among Low-Income Countries One of the greatest challenges of our time is to win ground in the battle against poverty. All parties must be fully engaged in this campaign. Many initiatives in recent years have borne fruit but there is still a long way to go and the international community must do better in order to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Here, I would like to focus on trade and its importance for development.

The Governing Council fully supports all steps to avoid the occurrence of excessive deficits and all efforts to reduce the public debt and bring the fiscal stance into line with the stability programmes in individual member countries in order to ensure the credibility of the commitments made under the Stability and Growth Pact. In the same vein, we very much support the continued initiatives to foster structural reform. We welcome the focus placed on these issues in the context of the forthcoming Barcelona summit and we are looking forward to swift and determined delivery of essential structural reforms in the goods, services and labour markets to promote the euro area's growth potential. 2  BIS Review 9/2002
The French financial sector entered the crisis in a solid financial position... French banks have continued to strengthen their financial structure and are today better placed to withstand the economic downturn than they were before the 2008 financial crisis. At the end of 2019, they had a strong liquidity position: the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) of the six largest French banking groups stood at 131.8%. This means that they had a comfortable surplus of average liquid assets to fund their potential net outflows in a situation of stress. They have also significantly reinforced their solvency, thanks notably to the Basel III regulations: these have frequently drawn criticism, but today we can all appreciate how useful they have been. Common Equity Tier 1 ratios (CET1) have increased by nearly 9 percentage points in the space of 12 years, from 5.8% in 2008 to 14.4% in 2019, with a rise of half a percentage point in 2019 alone. However, profitability levels in the industry remained relatively low in 2019, with the average ROE coming out at 6.5%. I highlighted this last year as a point we needed to watch, and it is weighing on the stock market valuations of European banks. The central bank takes this into account in its decisions, in order to guarantee the effective transmission of monetary policy. The collective image that we still have from banks must evolve: compared with US banks in particular, the European banking industry’s profitability is neither excessive nor invulnerable.

The Bank of Zambia has continued to encourage local banks and other financial institutions to partner with international financial institutions and other banks in Africa, Europe and Asia. In this regard, in December 2007, the Bank organised a forum to exchange information on sources of finance in Lusaka. The forum was well attended and the international institutions showcased their products to their local counterparts. I am happy to note that institutions present here today such as Zambia National Commercial Bank, AFREXIM Bank, PTA Bank, ALS Capital and Loita Capital were all represented at the forum. I imagine that such fora are  2  BIS Review 77/2008  instrumental in structuring tangible financing agreements like the ones we are witnessing today. Finally, I would, like to request all parties involved in the management of these facilities to ensure that the funds reach the intended beneficiaries and that controls are put in place to avoid abuse. The beneficiaries should also ensure that their projects are implemented effectively and expeditiously without any delay. In this regard, may I request the Zambian Mining Services Companies and the Export Fund of Zambia to take necessary measures in a timely manner to fulfill the requirements for declaring these loans effective and for starting implementation. I would like to wish all those involved success in their management of the funds and implementation of the projects so that we can ensure that the development impacts expected from these important initiatives become a reality for the intended beneficiaries and the country at large.
We will return with this information on 4 September, when we present our next repo-rate decision. Concluding thoughts The Riksbank has two main tasks: price stability and financial stability. On this basis, it is worrying that inflation is too low and below our target, at the same time as household indebtedness is very high, which creates risks for developments in the long run. In my speech today I have discussed how we can manage this challenge. It was necessary to cut the repo rate in July to attain the inflation target, but at the same time it is even more essential to take macroprudential policy measures to deal with household indebtedness. So far the new framework for macroprudential policy has mainly resulted in sharper capital adequacy requirements for the banks, which increase the resilience of the banking system. As I see it, one important piece of the puzzle still remains, however; namely measures aimed at directly limiting household indebtedness. However, to create a development that is sustainable in the long run, it may also be necessary to take measure in other policy areas, such as a review of tax deductions for interest paid and measures to increase housing construction. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figures Figure 1. Inflation in various countries and regions Annual percentage change  Note. KIX is an aggregate of the countries that are important to Sweden’s international transactions. When calculating KIX-weighted inflation, the HICP is used for the euro area and the CPI for other countries.

Intermediation among non-residents The third set of characteristics involves the provision of intermediation among non-residents. The Eurodollar market provides efficient intermediation among non-residents. For example, it allows for Eurodollar bonds to be issued by non-US entities and bought by non-US investors. To an increasing extent, the offshore RMB market is functioning as a platform for RMB financial activities conducted by non-residents. The pool of RMB deposits in Hong Kong, being deposits of mainly non-Mainland individuals and corporates, is exceeding RMB 800 billion. Adding to that is the dim sum bond market, which has a size of RMB 260 billion at present. Offshore RMB bonds are being issued by Mainland Chinese entities as well as multinationals, and they are being bought by offshore investors. At the same time, banks in Hong Kong are extending RMB loans to customers, with the outstanding amount of such RMB loans currently stands at close to RMB90 billion. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  As the market deepens and a greater variety of RMB products become available offshore, we will eventually see more RMB intermediation within the offshore markets, especially as non-Chinese residents become willing borrowers of RMB. However, for that to happen, work on different fronts needs to be pursued and market efficiency furthered through innovative solutions and active participation by different market players.
For reasons of credibility, central banks often feel they need to convey a strong sense of certainty about the impact of their words and actions. My own sense is that this needs to change. Experimentation and trialling, adaptation and learning are likely to be crucial when dealing with central banks’ new, wider audience: more diffuse than ever in their actions and reactions, increasingly silo-ed and self-reinforcing in their behaviours, shaped by social norms and popular narratives that propagate faster than ever. The response of this complex, adaptive social system to central bank interventions is likely, often, to be unknown. 74 75  For example, Halpern (2016). Consumers in the trial were presented with hypothetical choices. See Smart (2016) for details. 23  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  23  Experimental trials, which solicit and respond to feedback, are one way of reducing somewhat that uncertainty through learning and adaptation. These are used extensively by companies when trialling new games, new films and new apps, among other things. Although the bar is higher, and the trial would need careful stage-management, there is no reason these experimental methods could not be used to trial new communications and policies by central banks. A more sophisticated, and dynamic, approach to eliciting feedback is by “gamifying” the policy problem. A number of central banks and government departments have already made steps in this direction. The San Francisco Fed has a game called “Chair the Fed”. This is not a campaign rally by John.

And incredulity is Kryptonite for central banking Supermen (and the odd Superwoman), rendering ineffective their policies and unaccountable their actions. Building trust and legitimacy is among the most pressing issues facing central banks today. Tonight, I want to explore one avenue for doing so – rethinking how and with whom central banks engage. There has been a revolution in central bank communications over recent years, with much wider and deeper 6  engagement with society. That has been essential in building central bank trust and credibility during good times and protecting central bank legitimacy and independence during bad. But two recent developments mean that central banks’ engagement strategies may need to be widened and deepened. First, the global financial crisis has dealt a trust-busting blow to many institutions, including 1  The title of the Elvis song is, of course, A Little Less Conversation, A Little More Action (Please). Elvis was not a central banker. Mandelbrot and Hudson (2004). For example, Sentance (2015) and El-Erian (2015). See also Carney (2016). 4 In a recent CFM-CEPR survey of Europe-based macroeconomists, only 45% disagreed with the statement that “central bank independence in the Eurozone and the UK will decline over the next 48 months” (den Haan et al, 2017). 5 See House Bill 3189 (2015). 6 See Warsh (2014) and Blinder et al (2017). 2 3  2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  central banks. Second, the way trust is built has been fundamentally reconfigured.