samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
We believe that our approach has proved its worth and do not see any need for radical change. It is clear, though, that the separation of responsibilities and powers can only function on a basis of close cooperation and trust. I should like to touch upon two areas in which fundamental changes are needed. First, the financial systems have obviously been becoming more complex with regard to the roles played by their major participants. The traditional approach of focusing supervisory activities on the banks thus seems less and less appropriate. A more comprehensive supervisory system, covering the financial markets as a whole, would be preferable, with particular attention being paid to the transparency of market activities. Moreover, bank supervision should take account of the increasingly international nature of the financial markets. There would appear to be good reason to call for a globalisation of the supervisory system. But globalisation is one of those “in” words that has to be treated with caution. As a matter of fact, individual financial markets are still embedded in a national economic and social environment. What we need is for cooperation between the national supervisory bodies to be gradually intensified - which is in fact happening. True supranational supervision is still a long way off, as the necessary economic and social framework is lacking. For this reason, I should now like to focus on the role that an individual central bank has to play in helping to safeguard the stability of the financial system.

James D Rogers: Inauguration of the Sierra Leone Stock Exchange – a significant milestone Welcome address by Dr James D Rogers, Governor of the Bank of Sierra Leone, at the inauguration of the Sierra Leone Stock Exchange, Freetown, 27 July 2007. *  *  *  Mr Chairman Your Excellency The President Honourable Vice President Honourable Minister of Finance Honourable Ministers Honourable Members of Parliament Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen I am extremely delighted to welcome all of you, and in particular His Excellency The President and the Honourable Vice President to this inauguration ceremony the Sierra Leone Stock Exchange, a project pioneered by His Excellency The President and into which much time and resources have been invested by the Bank of Sierra Leone over the past several years. In 2002 the first step was taken with the establishment of the Stock Exchange Technical Committee (SETC) under the Chairmanship of the Deputy Governor of the Bank. I wish to note that the present Deputy Governor is the second Chairman of the Committee, and has professionally steered us to this point. I want to particularly thank His Excellency The President for accepting our invitation to launch this project. During his administration, His Excellency has given support, encouragement and advice to the Bank in every sphere of its activities, and I wish on behalf of the Board and Management to express my thanks and appreciation to him.
It’s the rate expected to prevail when interest rates are neither giving the economy a boost, nor slowing it down. That’s why it’s called the “neutral” rate. The evidence of a sizable decline in r-star across economies is compelling. The weighted average of estimates for five major economic areas—Canada, the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—has declined to half a percent.3 That’s about 2 percentage points below the average natural rate that prevailed in the two decades before the financial crisis. A striking aspect of these estimates is that they show no signs of moving back to previously normal levels, even though many advanced economies have fully recovered from the crisis. This poses significant challenges for monetary policy. When interest rates are low, central banks don’t have much room to maneuver to deal with a crisis. They will only be able to cut interest rates by a small amount before they hit zero—or as economists call it, the “zero lower bound.” Of course, central banks can, and have, used negative rates to stimulate growth, but they bring with them a separate set of challenges. The result is that future recoveries will be slow, and slow growth is usually characterized by low inflation. Persistently low inflation creates a vicious circle, where expectations of low inflation drag down current inflation.

The quantitative measurement of these risks over time represents a major challenge. Whereas standards of supervision have traditionally been based on statistical analyses of historical, backward-looking data, there are few, if any, past climate risk events that resemble what scientists are predicting for the 21st century. This is why, to borrow an image from Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, the snapshot of risks that I just provided is being supplemented by a video, as it were, of the long-term risks, created through forward-looking climate stress tests. In 2020, France’s Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority, the ACPR, conducted a pilot climate exercise to measure losses by 2050 connected with the climate transition to net zero by that date. The assessment found that French banks are “moderately” exposed to climate risk. However, our analysis points to a greater probability of default for business loans in the event of a disorderly transition, albeit with variations across sectors, calling for us to work together to organise the financial system’s climate transition [SLIDE 3]. The ECB, meanwhile, is assessing banks’ resilience to climate-related risk at the level of the euro area for the first time through a climate stress test that kicked off in late January. The findings are to be published in July. The ECB also recently conducted supplementary work. After assessing reporting requirements, it found that, overall, European banks have significant room for improvement if they are to meet in full its expectations on climate and environmental risk disclosures.
We cannot – as in the 1970s – allow the interest rate to remain low over a long period of time in an attempt to achieve permanently higher output. This would lead to wide fluctuations and high inflation. Seldom are the considerations underlying interest rate setting pulling in such different directions as today. In many quarters, it is now argued that the interest rate should be raised rapidly to restrain house price inflation. This is understandable in the light of the severe effects that house price inflation and high debt have had on many countries. In other quarters, it is argued that the interest rate should be lowered to keep down the krone exchange rate. This also seems well founded in view of the substantial challenges facing Norwegian enterprises. However, we cannot raise the interest rate and lower it at the same time. The interest rate is set to secure low and stable inflation. With strong growth in spending on goods and services or with falling demand, the interest rate can at the same time stabilise developments in output and employment. In this case, there are no conflicting objectives. BIS Review 15/2010  13  When inflation expectations are firmly anchored, we can give weight to the path for output and employment when we set the interest rate. In the assessment of the outlook for inflation and output, we also look at house prices, total credit and the krone exchange rate. In this respect, these variables are taken into account when we set the interest rate.

A businessman who owes more than he owns should be honest about it, she says. “… But what do you want [the businessman] to do?” asks Tjælde. “ To lay all his cards on the table, and so ruin both himself and the others? … In that case we should see a thousand failures every year, and fortunes lost one after the other everywhere! No, you have a level head, Valborg, but your ideas are narrow.” And this play by Bjørnson was written in 1875. Three imbalances in the world economy The financial crisis triggered the largest decline in output in advanced economies since the Second World War. The financial crisis erupted after a period of substantial debt accumulation among households and banks, combined with a real estate boom in the US and in some European countries. There were numerous examples of creative accounting as practised by Bjørnson’s businessman, Tjælde. The bubble burst, but extensive government measures helped put banking systems more or less back on their feet. Interest rates are close to zero in advanced economies, and governments have increased purchases of goods and services and reduced taxes. Many emerging market economies are exhibiting vigorous growth. But imbalances are building up, making the recovery fragile. 1  Bjørnstjerne Bjørnson, Three Dramas. The Editor – The Bankrupt – The King. 2009. This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever.
Complex language is these days more likely to breed mistrust than mystique. Expert opinion has become a source of scepticism rather than reassurance. The well-directed Tweet has displaced the well-argued speech, the Facebook “like” the approving newspaper review, the smiley-faced emoji the hand-written thank-you note. 58  That change in the nature of public language – shorter, simpler, shriller - puts an even greater premium on institutions making themselves understood, despite (indeed, because) of the technocratic task with which they are charged. That means speaking in words and sentences that land rather than levitate with the public, that connect rather than divide public opinion, that illuminate rather than darken public debate. So how well do central banks fare on that front? Earlier this year, the Campaign for Plain English, a militant band of grammarians, turned its attention to the Bank of England MPC’s Monetary Policy Statement. This statement is intended to be a simplified and sanitised account of the MPC’s judgements. The Campaign for Plain English described it as “worthless, impenetrable waffle” and “gobbledygook”. Reading between the lines, I am not sure they liked it. These views are instructive, but subjective. More objective measures have been developed, however, that enable us to measure the linguistic complexity of written and spoken material. For example, some of the more widely-used of these metrics are based on word and sentence length, the use of different word types etc. 57 58 59  59  These metrics can be applied to central bank publications.

But its potential has not escaped the notice of central banks or the financial services industry. Both are exploring DLT as a means of reconfiguring financial infrastructures. And some believe this new technology of distributed trust could bring about a genuine transformation of money and finance. One reason to think this possible is because a similar model of distributed trust has already fundamentally reshaped a number of other products, services and businesses. We have seen the rapid emergence of businesses built on peer-to-peer interactions and transactions. These business models are underpinned by trust between buyer and seller, producer and consumer, trust which is distributed and personalised. Take the market for accommodation. This has been transformed by the emergence of AirBnB. This peer-to-peer or distributed model of accommodation among strangers is underpinned by feedback ratings which endow participants with personalised trust. AirBnB is only 9 years old but already has over three million listings. Its estimated valuation is well above the market capitalisation of established, centralised, hotel chains such as the Hilton and Hyatt. Or consider travel. Everyone has heard of Uber – itself a distributed trust model. Fewer people have heard of BlaBlaCar. This is a distributed model of riding-sharing among strangers, also underpinned by feedback ratings and personalised trust. BlaBlaCar is only 11 years old but already transports more than four million people per month, well above Eurostar or JetBlue airlines.
In the medium-term, our overall aim is to ensure the stability in the financial sector through identifying emerging vulnerabilities in this sector; adopting  Financial system stability is founded on  early corrective actions; and  the confidence of the public in the  implementing a series of measures to  financial system and depends on the  further strengthen financial institutions,  soundness and resilience of principal  markets, infrastructure and safety nets. components of the financial system to collectively withstand risks emanating  Our medium-term plan is to have a financial system, which offers the full range of financial products and services  Central Bank of Sri Lanka – ROAD MAP 2017  18  to all economic sectors, including  change, both nationally and  agriculture, infrastructure,  internationally. Considering the need for  manufacturing, particularly small and  upgrading of statutes in line with these  medium enterprises (SMEs), and trade  developments, we expect to initiate  to achieve broader economic objectives  amendments to the existing Banking  of our country. We need to have a well-  Act. Accordingly, steps will be initiated  planned and an ambitious agenda for  to streamline and strengthen the  financial sector development and  regulatory and supervisory framework  reforms ranging across financial sector  through the proposed Banking Act  policies with a vision of innovative,  amendments. We will consider  robust and competitive financial  provisions for reinforcing the Central  systems.

2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Before I address the benefits of EMU and the stability-oriented policies that have to be implemented to ensure that these benefits are achieved, let me briefly mention the main institutional bodies involved in the formulation and implementation of the single monetary policy. Monetary policy is determined by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), which consists of the eleven governors of the national central banks (NCBs) of the participating Member States and the six members of the Executive Board of the ECB. The implementation of the single monetary policy is the responsibility of the Eurosystem, which is comprised of the ECB and the eleven NCBs of the participating Member States. The Executive Board of the ECB is a separate decision-making body. Its role is to ensure that the tasks conferred upon the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) are implemented, either through its own activities or through the NCBs. Economic growth - the benefits of EMU I should now like to address the benefits of EMU and why I believe that the introduction of the euro and the single monetary policy can result in higher economic growth in the euro area and thereby contribute positively to the development of the world economy. Of course, the degree to which these benefits are achieved depends not only on the monetary policy of the Eurosystem but even more so on accompanying stability-oriented fiscal policies and appropriate labour market policies.

In particular, downside risks to the achievement of our employment and inflation goals amid very low interest rates were compelling arguments for a relatively cautious and predictable approach to policy. This proved its worth: The U.S. economy continued to expand at a healthy pace even as the Fed raised rates numerous times. For those who follow the Fed closely, you’ve noticed that the FOMC has been slimming down its statements of late and using less forward guidance about the future path of policy. In this vein, the FOMC in its recent statement removed language indicating that monetary policy remains accommodative.3 Let me make clear, these more concise statements do not signify a shift in our monetary policy approach. Instead, they represent the natural evolution of the language describing the factors influencing our policy decisions in the context of the strength of the economic outlook and inflation being near our 2 percent longer-run goal. These changes in our communication of policy views are a sign that we are nearing the end of the process of normalizing monetary policy and are inching closer to conducting normal monetary policy. Arguably, it’s been a long time since monetary policy was normal, so it’s worth describing what “normal” looks like in some detail. At its most basic level, monetary policy-making will remain the same: The path of interest rates will continue to be guided strategically by our dual mandate objectives and shaped tactically by the data and their implications for the economic outlook.
Perhaps the most pertinent question, however, is whether these historical “forecasting errors” would have had any decisive consequences for monetary policy if they had been anticipated well in advance. The answer in my opinion is: probably not. Even if we had allowed for the interest expenditure item’s downward effect on CPI inflation in 1996–97, we would still have lowered the repo rate. Neither would it be realistic to suppose that the Riksbank would have, as it were, chased its own tail and lowered the interest rate appreciably more on the grounds that CPI inflation was below the target. In the period in the late 1990s, resource utilisation was already rising rapidly and an even more expansionary monetary policy would hardly have been justified. The instrumental rate in Sweden was a good bit lower than in the United States in these years and also lower at times than in the euro area, at the same time as the Swedish krona was comparatively weak. Concerning the past year’s increase in inflation, it was not the supply shocks that prompted the decision in March to raise the repo rate but the picture that was beginning to emerge of the Swedish economy being rather close to or even somewhat above full resource utilisation. This may be a major problem, not for current inflation but rather for future inflation as activity continues to strengthen.

Your personal commitment Nick to support these causes in times of great financial difficulty is a tribute to you and also to the charitable instincts of the City of London. We thank you for that work, and I am sure that everyone here tonight thanks both you and the Lady Mayoress for the splendid hospitality which you have extended to us all this evening. So I invite you all to rise and join me in the traditional toast of good health and prosperity to “The Lord Mayor and the Lady Mayoress”, Nick and Claire Anstee. 4  BIS Review 84/2010
Employees shall usually work in the best interests of the company, but can in some contexts have interests of their own that are in conflict with the company’s best. Divisional managers within a corporate group may have an interest in promoting their own division rather than the group as a whole. Company management does not always have the same aims as the shareholders. Many of these conflicts of interest are common and quite natural elements of real life, and rarely cause problems. It is important to bear this in mind when discussing methods of dealing with them. This does not mean that conflicts of interest in financial operations are irrelevant, quite the reverse. The relevant question here, however, is which conflicts of interest are real problems and which are not. The conflicts without problems are those where there is little incentive to improperly favour one interest over another. For instance, most employees are usually loyal to their employer - otherwise they risk losing their jobs. A company that does not take into account the interests of its employees and its customers risks gaining a bad reputation and losing its competitiveness. Other conflicts of interest are more problematic. When an agent has a considerable incentive to favour one party at the cost of another, there could be scope for some form of regulations. Many companies also have ethical guidelines and rules for dealing with the cases where there is most incentive to take other interests into account.

For inflation, the reference point is not in the past – but it is rather a normative value, commonly agreed to be desirable for a given society at a given point in time. Please bear with me for a short presentation of the cumulative wage gap model (please see the attached slides). We start by defining the wage gap: 𝑊𝑔𝑎𝑝 𝑇𝑛 = 𝑊𝑇𝑛 − 𝑊𝑇0 3  where 𝑊𝑔𝑎𝑝 𝑇𝑛 is the real wage gap at time Tn, 𝑊𝑇𝑛 is the real wage at time Tn, and 𝑊𝑇0 is the real wage at time T0, the peak value of real wage in the reference period. The cumulative real wage gap at time Tn is defined as: 𝑁 𝑐𝑊𝑔𝑎𝑝 𝑇𝑁 = ∑𝑁 𝑛=1 𝑊𝑔𝑎𝑝 𝑇𝑛 = ∑𝑛=1(𝑊𝑇𝑛 − 𝑊𝑇0 ) A theoretical graphical representation of the real wage and the cumulative real wage gap for a six-period model can be observed in the attached figures. At time T0 real wage is at peak. Of course, wage earners are not aware of this peak until the next year, when real wage drops. Area A is the cumulative real wage gap between T1 and T0, area B is the cumulative real wage gap between T2 and T1, area C is the cumulative real wage gap between T3 and T2, area D is the cumulative real wage gap between T4 and T3, area E is the cumulative real wage gap between T5 and T4 and area F is the cumulative real wage gap between T6 and T5.
The central banks became independent during a period that one might be able to call the “golden age” of inflation targeting, when everything looked relatively straightforward – when the policy rate was in principle set to attain price stability and when one took financial stability more or less for granted. The world that now appears to be emerging is more complicated. It is necessary to reconsider where the boundary lines should be drawn between what should be delegated to independent central banks and what should be managed by the political system. Finding the best way of doing this is one of the major challenges ahead of us. 17  See Gerlach (2013). Results from a study by Bech, Gambacorta and Kharroubi (2012) indicate that monetary policy is less efficient when it comes to counteracting a recession and contributing to a recovery after a financial crisis. Posen (2013) says that more powerful quantitative easing would have facilitated the recovery in the United Kingdom, but that the fact that this was not implemented has nothing to do with inflation targeting and it would not have been easier with a different type of monetary policy. 18  See, for example, Banerjee, Cecchetti and Hofmann (2013). Whelan (2013) says that inflation targeting should actually be abandoned in favour of a solution where the central banks are given a broader mandate and more instruments at their disposal.

Public authorities and industry professionals need to combine forces and continue looking for ways to redirect French savings. Without necessarily making it an issue in the upcoming electoral debate, the solution could aim to be compatible on three levels: with the low interest rate environment, with the need to better channel resources towards productive investment – and therefore corporate equity – and with the expectations of savers. Prompted by the increase in life expectancies and the need to prepare for retirement, savers are adopting increasingly long-term investment horizons: they are more 2 ACPR, 2015 Annual Report, October 2016. Page 4 sur 7  concerned with the security of their investments than with liquidity. Taking inspiration from the new Euro-croissance policies, it makes sense to offer savers new, complementary forms of saving products that are less liquid and include some form of long-term capital guarantee, and that allow them to take advantage of the higher returns offered by equities over the long run. We also need, at the very least, to avoid any tax distortions that might penalise these products more than liquid and risk-free investments. Given the current low rate environment, the ACPR is taking care to ensure that insurers remain alert to the risks of adverse developments and take appropriate measures to counter them.