samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
2 See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement, March 15,  2020. 3 See Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations, March 17, 2020. 4 See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Announces Extensive New Measures  to Support the Economy, March 23, 2020. 5 According to the Open Market Desk at the New York Fed, between March 16 and April 14, the Desk has  purchased over $ trillion of Treasury securities, over $ billion in agency MBS, and $ billion in agency CMBS. For comparison, over the course of the 2012 – 14 asset purchase program, the Desk added about $ billion of Treasury securities and $ billion of agency MBS to the System Open Market Account portfolio. 6 For the discount window, see Federal Reserve Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and  Businesses, March 15, 2020. For the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, see Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Board Announces Establishment of a Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) to Support the Credit Needs of Households and Businesses, March 17, 2020; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Board Broadens Program of Support for the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses by Establishing a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF), March 18, 2020.

7 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  7 For announcements of the various programs, see Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal  Reserve Board Announces Establishment of a Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses, March 17, 2020; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Board Announces Establishment of a Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) to Support the Credit Needs of Households and Businesses, March 17, 2020; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Board Broadens Program of Support for the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses by Establishing a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF), March 18, 2020; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Announces Extensive New Measures to Support the Economy, March 23, 2020; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Will Establish a Facility to Facilitate Lending to Small Businesses via the Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) By Providing Term Financing Backed by PPP Loans, April 6, 2020; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Takes Additional Actions to Provide Up to $ Trillion in Loans to Support the Economy, April 9, 2020. 8 See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Takes Additional Actions to Provide  Up to $ Trillion in Loans to Support the Economy, April 9, 2020.
What is important is that at the moment of the decision, after having had the possibility of analysing all pertinent information and data, market participants can correctly predict our decision thanks to their intimate knowledge of our policy. 2  BIS Review 5/2005  ECB’s communication in practice Some features of the ECB are bringing about major additional challenges for external communications. In particular, the ECB operates in a multicultural environment with 12 different cultures and 10 different languages in the euro area and 25 cultures and 20 languages within the scope of the European System of Central Banks. And, the ECB was given the very ambitious challenge to be fully credible from day one, without track record and to issue a currency which would be immediately as credible as the most credible legacy currencies. In the practical implementation of the communication policy we make use of a wide range of communication tools. I will mention only a few of them here: First, the monthly press conferences after the first Governing Council meeting in each month. The introductory statement at the press conference is a key element in our communication as it conveys the collective view of the ECB’s Governing Council on the monetary policy stance in real time. In fact, the decision to hold a press conference after each policy meeting was unheard of among major central banks prior to the euro.

This encourages banks to grant loans to SMEs and refinance them by borrowing from the ECB. In parallel, our supervisory arm ensured that there were no prudential barriers to banks acting quickly, which freed up € billion in bank capital for new lending. And fiscal authorities complemented our efforts, making available wide-ranging loan guarantees and other liquidity support measures – equalling close to 20% of euro area GDP. This was crucial to mitigate the higher credit risk banks face when lending to SMEs during a recession. As a result, from March to May last year, bank lending to euro area firms rose by the largest amount on record. And it was SMEs that benefited the most from both cheap and abundant credit. 4/8  Lending rates on very small loans – which are a proxy for lending to SMEs – declined substantially, with firms able to borrow at the lowest rates ever recorded – below 2%. [10] And, since March, € billion in new small loans have been granted to SMEs in the euro area, including € billion to SMEs in Germany. Our policies were key to achieving that outcome. Banks taking part in our TLTROs saw a considerable increase in their credit growth, with loans rising by over € billion in the year up to September. And this dovetailed with government loan guarantees to funnel credit to SMEs, which received more than 70% of all the guaranteed loans granted.
However, by maintaining price stability, the ECB almost automatically fosters the attractiveness of the euro as an international currency. Third, the international use of a currency is a complex phenomenon that does not lend itself to ad hoc promotion measures. A currency can be used not only for different functions, but also by different groups of economic agents. In this context, the use of the euro by private agents as an investment and financing currency, as well as a payment and vehicle currency, plays a prominent role. Although the euro is also used by the public sector as a nominal peg and reserve currency, the behaviour of the private sector dominates the internationalisation of the euro. The amount of financial assets managed by the private sector is many times larger than official reserve holdings. In addition, private agents usually adjust their asset management strategies more rapidly than most public sector institutions. But what are the factors behind the internationalisation of a currency? In principle, two basic factors might eventually determine the international role of the euro - size and risk. With regard to the size factor, a broad, deep and liquid euro area capital market may lead to a greater use of the euro through lower transaction costs. This may, in turn, facilitate the development of the euro as a vehicle currency for trade and commodity pricing. Already at this early stage, the introduction of the euro has brought about fundamental structural changes in euro area capital markets.

Accounting for 33% of all announced international bonds and notes issues in 1999, compared with 37% for the US dollar, the euro nearly matched the dollar in that year. In the second half of 1999 euro-denominated bond issues even exceeded those in the US dollar. As far as the euro’s share in overall official reserves is concerned, the euro also represents the second most widely used currency behind the US dollar. According to the latest available data, at the end of 1999 the euro accounted for around 13% of the official foreign currency holdings of the world. Apart from some technical corrections on account of the conversion of the Eurosystem’s reserves into euro, which led to a slight decline in the euro’s share in overall reserves, there is no evidence of any reallocation of foreign reserves at this stage. It should also be noted that more than 50 countries in the world are currently using the euro as a nominal anchor. International cooperation Let me now turn to the institutional side. The introduction of the euro has brought about a major change to the institutional framework in which international cooperation takes place. In view of the rapid process of globalisation and episodes of crises in a number of systemically important emerging market economies, international cooperation should play a role in strengthening the international financial architecture. In this respect, the new institutional setting in Europe is to be taken into account.
For instance, the simple approach of Basel II ties the amount of required capital to ratings by External Credit Assessment Institutions (ECAIs) because they have the strength in both the wealth of data and expertise in credit risk assessment. Unfortunately, only a few large companies in emerging countries are rated. Therefore, a challenge for regulators lies in the process of ECAI recognitions and risk-weight mapping processes as they must ensure stability of the banking system while at the same time foster the development of local ECAIs and the bond market. These efforts will undoubtedly take considerable time and patience, but it is a road that has to be taken. 6  BIS Review 89/2007  The challenge of implementing structural reforms The two facets of monetary and financial stability that I discussed are present in all economies. But in the emerging market context, the interaction between them and the tensions that arise in terms of where the policy emphasis is placed are arguably more complex with greater welfare implications. Let me end by touching on some of the complexities that arise in this regard and highlight some of the challenges in implementing structural reform in emerging markets. The first problem is that the gains from reform are hard to quantify because they are often indirect and thus rarely fully appreciated by the wider public. Also the fact that many structural reforms entail short run costs compounds the problem.

Understanding these interactions is essential in assessing whether inflationary pressures are likely to prove persistent and thus calibrating the appropriate monetary policy response. On the basis of current futures prices, wholesale natural gas prices may stabilise or even fall somewhat in the coming months – indeed, that is precisely what we have seen in recent weeks. This will have a mechanical moderating effect on headline inflation from the middle of next year, as the MPC has anticipated in its latest forecasts. But, to the extent that the level of imported gas prices remains significantly higher than in the past – which is also foreseen in futures markets – then the threat of second round effects that sustain inflation at above target rates may well remain, as domestic firms and households try to resist the squeeze on their real incomes and spending power. That threat will be more acute to the extent that domestic firms and workers seek to protect the real value of their profits and earnings in the face of higher – even if no longer rising – imported energy prices. And – other things equal – the ability to firms and workers to protect their real incomes will be greater when corporate pricing power is stronger and labour markets are tighter.
It is often acknowledged that European construction has been forged through the overcoming of recurrent episodes of crisis, from which the project has always emerged strengthened. Let us hope this is true this time and that the European authorities’ decisions will rise to the challenge. The Spanish economy was particularly affected by the sovereign debt crisis when the Greek and Irish economies had to resort to adjustment programmes. Conversely, when the same happened with Portugal in April this year, the impact was less, despite our closer economic, trade and financial ties with this country. This was due to the set of measures that had been  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  adopted previously to speed the approval of some reforms and thus tackle confidence problems. In any event, the Spanish economy remains under the scrutiny of the markets, which continue to demand an unjustifiably high level of sovereign risk premia. In past weeks we have witnessed the effect caused by the recent discussions in Europe on the potential participation of the private sector in the bail-out of the Greek economy, while doubts resurfaced over the seriousness of Spain’s commitment to pushing through outstanding reforms. The spread of the sovereign debt crisis to Spain was ultimately due to the presence in our country of certain factors of vulnerability as a result of the imbalances that had built up during the previous upturn.

Adjustment of the imbalances in the economy is vital in order to soundly underpin medium and long-term growth, although in the short run, balance-sheet write-downs in the general government sector, at credit institutions and in households and firms may check any take-off in spending. Fortunately, the sluggishness of domestic demand is being offset by the buoyancy of external demand. The thrust of exports has been substantial and should continue to be so, whereby attaining further gains in competitiveness will be vital. This is the key variable for making the adjustment of the imbalances compatible with the firming of a more dynamic recovery. If this combination of adjustment and growth were to successfully take root, the Spanish economy could see private-sector deleveraging, the stabilising of public finances and the restructuring of the banking system lead to an increase in confidence, softer financial conditions and, in sum, an improved economic outlook that would boost investment and employment. The role of economic policy remains pivotal for steering the adjustment process. In the case of fiscal policy, the measures adopted last spring marked the starting point. But substantial challenges lie ahead and determination will be required to define and specify the measures that allow public finances to resume a stable path. In the short run, the deficit target for 2011 is ambitious, as it entails a reduction of more than 3 pp of GDP to 6%. But, at the same time, compliance is crucial in view of the financial markets’ extreme sensitivity to the course of public finances.
The country possesses all the necessary attributes for sustainable economic growth and development. Competitive production costs, incentives, and reforms have also enhanced the attractive investment climate for both local and foreign investors. Numerous investment opportunities exist in the agriculture, manufacturing, tourism and mining sectors across various regions of the country. Almost all provinces in Zambia remain potential areas of investment whose resources remain largely untapped. Its active participation in the SADC Trade protocol and the COMESA/FTA offers preferential tariff access to a market of nearly 380 million people. A key challenge in developing this economic potential and enhancing the wealth creation capability of Zambians to drive growth and development is the ability to access long term investment capital especially for economically viable projects at start-up level. Financial institutions are critical in this process of mobilising and channeling these investment resources. To do so successfully, the industry must identify the constraints to the provision of finance and credit and provide innovative solutions to address them. Such innovations may include venture capital funds, structured finance products, equity and other innovations that allow a more efficient management of risks during the initial stages of the business cycle. On its part, the Bank of Zambia needs to ensure that there is sustainable stable macroeconomic environment first. But we also need to have a good understanding of the financial innovations that may be needed to attract and disburse investment capital.

Like many other organisations facing major change in its core business, the Fund will need to be sure that everything it values and rewards is tuned to support its new priorities. Conclusion Over the past fifteen years, the Great Inflation that followed the end of the Bretton Woods system has been replaced by the Great Stability. Globalisation has brought great benefits, but it is creating major challenges for policy makers. How will such issues be handled in future? The Fund certainly has the potential to act as an authoritative medium for international monetary collaboration, providing its surveillance activities are re-focused on external stability and the big global issues. The Managing Director’s current reform agenda is on the right lines. But the Fund’s effectiveness in promoting international monetary stability will depend critically on the organisation’s stature as a trusted and respected source of dispassionate analysis and impartial advice. And it will rest above all on the willingness of its members – large as well as small - to use it as their instrument to improve the quality of their own policy making. BIS Review 103/2006  7  Equipping the Fund with its own version of Hawk-Eye will not be enough. In the end it will be down to them – or more accurately, us.
In fact price stability, in the sense of an inflation rate overall of around 2½% a year, is likely to mean that the prices of manufactured goods will, on average, not rise at all. Faster productivity growth in manufacturing than in services, averaging around 2% over the last twenty years, means that the prices of services will rise faster than those of manufactured goods. And the rise in sterling over the past five years increased the difference between inflation rates in the two sectors. Table 5 shows the inflation rates for goods and services in the major economies. Positive rates of inflation for services, which account for around half of consumer spending, show deflation in most of the world economy is still some way off. In all countries over the past decade the gap between goods and services price inflation reflects productivity differences. That gap has widened somewhat in recent years as increasing competition from new producers has driven down prices of tradable goods. But the striking feature of the table is the extent to which the difference has increased to no less than 5.7 percentage points in the UK, much more than in the US where in turn the gap is larger than elsewhere. Exchange rate movements are largely responsible for these differences. The extent to which services inflation has risen relative to goods inflation is another manifestation of the imbalance within the UK economy.

And if many firms make these mistakes at the same time then the result is an unnecessary fluctuation in aggregate output. Another decision affected by uncertainty about prices is investment. Many investments are specific to a particular model or product, and so they become sunk costs. For such irreversible investments it may pay to wait before investing since time will resolve some of the uncertainty. A Premiership football team may decide to postpone the construction of a new stadium until their survival in the League is assured. Or a car manufacturer may postpone a decision about opening a new plant to see if a rise in demand is temporary or appears likely to last. And that uncertainty could stem from a difficulty in disentangling relative from absolute prices. In the language of finance, there is an option value to waiting when there is uncertainty about the returns on an irreversible investment. So a project must offer a rate of return sufficient not only to cover the cost of financing of the project, but also the option value to waiting. That may explain why surveys of firms show that their hurdle rates of return are often well in excess of the cost of either equity or debt finance. For example a CBI survey last year found that the average real hurdle rate for UK firms was 11.3% - down from rates of around 15% in surveys conducted in 1994 - but still well above the cost of financial capital.
Mr. Kent examines the challenges facing the UK commercial property market as it moves towards the 21st century Speech by Mr. Pen Kent, an Executive Director of the Bank of England, to The Investment Property Forum Annual Lunch in London on 15/1/97. Introduction 1 The IPF has built up a significant and diverse membership in recent years and has deservedly become one of the most prominent and respected trade associations within your industry. I am delighted to have the opportunity to address you all this afternoon. 2 When Mark Burton suggested that I might look back at developments in the commercial property market during the eight years that I have been doing my present job, that appealed to me because I shall be retiring from the Bank next month. But I also like to look to the future and to identify coming issues and challenges. With that in mind, I will also pick out some of the factors relevant to the industry as it moves forward. The Past 3 My involvement with commercial property began in 1985, when plans for Canary Wharf were beginning to materialise. One of the questions put to the Bank by the developers was whether we would change our policy encouraging banks to have their offices close to the Bank. We recognised that our policy was distorting the market and we decided to make the change. I have followed the property story ever since.

Not all banks have done all of the work we would like them to do. Some are well under way, and some still need to do much more. Some observers are disappointed that a male candidate – Italy’s Andrea Enria – will take over as head of ECB Banking Supervision from Danièle Nouy next year, rather than Irishwoman Sharon Donnery. How did you feel about the news? I hope that our ratio of women in central banking, as well as in banking supervision, will increase. I’m convinced that diversity in management positions is an intelligent idea to pursue. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches