samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
If this labor market improvement continues and the FOMC is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to our 2 percent objective over the medium term, then it would be appropriate to begin to normalize interest rates. At their March meeting, the FOMC removed language from the statement that indicated that we would be patient in beginning the process of normalizing monetary policy. But, as Chair Yellen remarked in her most recent press conference, removal of the word “patient” from the statement does not indicate that we will now be “impatient” to begin to normalize monetary policy. Rather, the timing of normalization remains uncertain because how the economy evolves is also uncertain. When, hopefully, the data support a decision to lift off later this year, it does not mean that U.S. monetary policy will be tight. Rather, we will simply be moving from an extremely accommodative monetary policy to one that is only slightly less so. I would view this as a positive signal about the progress we have made in restoring the U.S. economy to health. It is important to remember that near zero short-term interest rates and the large expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet were designed to be a temporary extraordinary treatment to help the economy regain its vitality, and not a permanent palliative. I remain confident that when the FOMC decides to begin to remove policy accommodation that we have the requisite tools to support this decision.

While tightening cycles by the Fed can pose challenges for EMEs, these need not be disruptive. The combination of stronger U.S. growth, improved EME fundamentals and effective Fed communications can limit the stresses caused by the onset of tightening. The experience will vary across EMEs, but EMEs as a group are better equipped today to handle the challenge than they were in the past. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System. The U.S. economic outlook Since the end of the Great Recession more than five years ago, the U.S. economy has grown at a disappointing 2.3 percent annualized rate. Several times over that period, it appeared that growth was strengthening, but each time such hopes were subsequently unfulfilled. We appear again to be at a similar junction. Real GDP growth accelerated over the last two years, rising at a 2.7 percent annual rate. However, the first quarter of 2015 is expected to be quite weak with growth only at around a 1½ percent annualized rate. What does this portend for growth going forward? Despite the weak performance of the first quarter, I believe that the growth prospects for the U.S. economy over the remainder of 2015 will improve. I expect that the first quarter weakness will prove to be largely temporary.
Øystein Olsen: Macroprudential policy and financial stability Speech by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the meeting of the Norwegian Savings Banks Association, Oslo, 31 October 2013. *  *  *  Accompanying charts can be found at the end of the speech: Charts in pdf-format. Thank you for inviting me to this meeting of the Norwegian Savings Banks Association. It is a pleasure to meet representatives of Norway’s many savings banks. As a key element of the financial system, savings banks play an important role in the Norwegian economy. The financial crisis showed the importance of promoting financial stability. In the wake of the crisis, a number of reforms were introduced in many countries. These efforts have achieved results. Regulations have been tightened and have incorporated a clearer macroprudential perspective. Banks’ capital ratios have been raised. There are also initiatives aimed at bolstering the resilience of the financial infrastructure. I will devote most of my time today to the introduction of the new capital framework in Norway, including a countercyclical buffer requirement, and I will also touch upon the interaction of the buffer with monetary policy. I will conclude by saying a few words about Norges Bank’s settlement system, which plays an important role in promoting financial stability. Chart: Banks play a key role Why capital regulation? A well functioning financial market is essential for virtually all other economic activity in a market-based economy. Banks play a key role. Banks channel funds from savers to investors.

And you and I are sure of this. Therefore, of course, maintaining financial sector stability as a whole is a priority of our policy. Now about the longer term. Every year, the topic of financial technologies and digitalisation in general plays an increasing role in the conversation about the future of banking business. This was also mentioned by Mr Aksakov in his report. Yet, this year has clearly demonstrated to us in a very obvious way that digitalisation is not just a guarantee of resilience in the future, but it is already a key factor in business development right now. Russian banks are among the most advanced in the world in terms of financial technologies, we have implemented some of the most advanced digital technologies, and the quality of online services is also on the rise. It was thanks to this that our citizens and our companies were able to use all the usual services during the lockdown period, and were not cut off from these services. Also, the banks themselves were able to transfer their employees to remote working mode very rapidly and significantly reduce the amount of physical interaction with customers. And over the course of these few months, of course, people did not just get used to do without 4/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  visits to their bank branches, although these visits did also take place, they also had the chance to enjoy the advantages of remote services and non-cash settlements.
The picture they paint is a sobering one. Thompson (2016). The irony of making these points in a long speech is not lost on me. DuBay (2004). 15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  15  For example, Chart 14 takes a set of regular Bank of England publications (MPC minutes, MPC statements, excerpts from the quarterly Inflation Report, Governors’ speeches) and assesses their linguistic complexity over time. It uses one well-known measure of linguistic complexity, the Flesch-Kincaid reading grade score. 60  These central bank publications are compared with a set of external publications (broadsheet and  tabloid newspapers, the Economist magazine and political speeches). Bank of England publications have an average reading grade score of around 14 – that is to say, they would be expected to be understood, on average, by someone aged around 20. They have been steady around this level for a number of years. In linguistic complexity terms, that puts them around 2 years ahead of broadsheet newspapers, 4 years ahead of tabloid newspapers and around 6 years ahead of the average political speech. They are around 5 years ahead of the average Dickens novel. We can do the same exercise for a selection of Federal Reserve publications (FOMC minutes, speeches by the Chair, Beige Book summaries) and compare those with some external publications (the New York Times, Washington Post and Financial Times and US political speeches). Chart 15 suggests Fed publications tend to have a higher reading grade score than Bank of England ones.

With the arrival of the nine-person Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in 1997, the number of published speeches increased further from around 13 per year in the nineties to around 34 in the noughties. Accompanying these speeches were published minutes of MPC meetings. 14 15 16  See Brunner (1981) and Goodfriend (1986). As described by King (2000). Capie (2010). 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  In 2013, the Bank began issuing so-called “forward guidance” on its policy actions. 17  In 2014, following a  review by David Stockton, the Bank began publishing forecasts for a wider set of variables. 18  And from  2015, following a review by Kevin Warsh, the Bank agreed to publish full transcripts of MPC policy meetings (Table 1). 19  These publications do not capture the entirety of the Bank’s engagement strategy. In 2016 alone, the Bank appeared before Parliament on 22 separate occasions. Senior Bank officials made around 60 visits to the Bank’s regional agencies across the UK. Bank officials visited nearly 5,000 companies and charities. The Bank ran a schools competition, involving over 250 schools. And it hosted a Future Forum, at which it engaged openly with a broad cross-section of the public on a wide range of issues. These step changes in transparency have been broadly mirrored across a range of other central banks.
16  2005  2015  2025  2035  2045  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 12 Projection of country share of world equity market capitalisation (2000–2050) 2000  China  2010  India  Other emerging G20  China  India  Other emerging G20  US  Other advanced G20  Non-G20  US  Other advanced G20  Non-G20  2020  2030  China  India  Other emerging G20  US  Other advanced G20  China  India  Other emerging G20  US  Other advanced G20  Non-G20  Non-G20  2040  2050  China  India  US  Other emerging G20  US  Non-G20  Other advanced G20  Non-G20  China  India  Other emerging G20 Other advanced G20  Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, GDP projections from Chart 7 and Bank calculations. Notes: Same basis as Chart 6.

Between 1995 and 2010, the emerging G20 countries more than quadrupled their share of the world equity market portfolio, from 4% to 21% (Chart 6). Had advanced country portfolio allocations remained constant over this period, measured home bias would have risen rather than fallen. These trends in international portfolio allocation have been a key driver behind the emerging BFSP problem during the course of this century. Portfolio reallocation by the big fish has outpaced growth in the small pond of emerging capital markets. The upshot has been large and mounting financial ripples. These strengthening waves of capital inflows have, in turn, prompted some emerging countries to construct protective policy seawalls, such as capital flow restrictions and macro-prudential policies. Recently, these measures have included:   In Hong Kong, the authorities imposed a cap on loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and a maximum loan amount on certain properties, alongside an increase in stamp duty on sales in October 2009.   The Chinese authorities in 2010 increased taxes on properties resold within five years and offered greater administrative guidance on financing, including lower LTV ratios for second and third homes and a mandated increase in mortgage rates for second homes.   In Brazil, the authorities reintroduced in October 2009 a tax on non-resident portfolio equity and debt inflows, with a broader coverage and a higher rate. They also increased the tax on the margin payments required on foreign exchange futures and other derivatives. In early 2011, reserve requirements on short foreign exchange positions were introduced.
At present we worry that democracy is threatened by the ease at  34  The International Fact Checking Network’s code of principles includes a commitment to non-partisanship, transparency, openness about funding sources, methodology and honest corrections. See www.poynter.org/fact-checkers-code-of-principles. 35 See for example Copeland, P (2016) How to Make Media Literacy Popular, The Legatum Institute 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  10  which disinformation about civic issues is allowed to spread and flourish.”  36  In a world where information is  plentiful, the future of education will be about critical thinking and creating citizens with an ability to learn and make judgements. 4. Listen to the other side Humans are prone to “groupish righteousness” argues Jonathan Haidt in a thoughtful book about how 37  people come to moral judgments about important issues. Social media exacerbates this tendency by providing the ability to communicate exclusively among the like-minded and with the shrillness enabled by anonymity. But we can all make an effort to engage with views that are different from our own and resist 38  algorithmic channeling into an echo chamber . Perhaps there could even be algorithms that enable such bubble bursting? At the end of the day, even when all of the facts are truthfully established, differences of opinion can legitimately exist, even amongst experts.

Arthur Yuen: Regional approaches to global AML challenges Speech by Mr Arthur Yuen, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) 10th Annual AML &amp; Financial Crime Conference, Hong Kong, 23 April 2018. * * * Good Morning Ladies and gentlemen, 1. I am very honoured to be here today addressing such a distinguished audience. I would like to in particular thank ACAMS for your kind invitation, and for arranging this great event in Hong Kong. The topic for this event is very dear to my heart, since I have been closely involved in work that aims at enhancing the framework for countering money laundering and the financing of terrorism for almost 20 years as a banking supervisor. Indeed, tackling ML/TF is a core supervisory priority for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) in recent years, and so I am very delighted to have this opportunity to open the conference and meet so many professionals here to discuss how best to respond to some of the challenges posed to us by those who seek to abuse our highly efficient and international banking and payment systems. 2. From my perspective as a banking supervisor, everyone here - irrespective of your sector, experience and the jurisdiction that you work in - we all have an important role in combatting financial crime. Governments need your support in so many ways - in implementing relevant policies, in submitting suspicious transaction reports and sharing intelligence, to name just a few.
I am pleased to see that the objective of a return to fiscal equilibrium within five years is one of the new government’s priorities. The President of the Republic has undertaken to achieve balanced public accounts by the end of his mandate. This is a necessary target. So far, the tax increases have allowed the financing of additional spending and the reduction of the deficit. I am waiting to see the 2013 budget proposal to measure exactly by how much the State’s spending will be reduced. In concrete terms, what exactly would you like to see? The Cour des comptes (court of auditors) has compiled a list of the different potential savings that the government should examine. I agree with its analysis. It is indeed a colossal and ambitious project. Alongside the reduction of public expenditure, we must also encourage investment, entrepreneurship and restore confidence for those who wish to start a business. We therefore need structural reforms and a reform of our labour laws to allow greater flexibility with the objective of restoring and improving the competitiveness of our economy. We must change our social model because it is no longer coherent with global competition. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

Light is therefore Colour: Remarks at the launch of the new £ banknote Speech given by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England  Turner Contemporary Gallery, Margate 10 October 2019  I would like to thank Clare Macallan for her assistance in preparing these remarks and Lizzie Levett and Lisa Young for providing background information. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  It is a pleasure to be back at Turner Contemporary in Margate to unveil the new £ banknote featuring JMW Turner. Banknote character Turner was a frequent visitor to Margate, drawn by “the skies over Thanet”, which he held to be “the loveliest in all Europe”. The East Kent coast inspired more than 100 of his works and this gallery stands on the site of Mrs Booth’s seafront guesthouse, where Turner stayed whenever he visited. Turner’s contribution to art extends well beyond this stretch of shoreline. He was precocious – exhibiting at the Royal Academy at 15, and becoming an Academician at 24 – as well as prolific, producing more than 550 oil paintings, 2,000 watercolours, and 30,000 sketches and drawings. Turner is rightly celebrated for his unique ability to capture light and highly varied atmospheric effects through use of vibrant colour and flowing brushwork; he often went to extremes in pursuit of the visceral artistic experience. His paintings blaze with the heat of the sun, shimmer in moonshine, and rumble under the weight of gathering storm clouds. These works transformed the field of landscape art.
Their degree of vulnerability or resilience depends, amongst other things, on the leverage and the liquidity mismatch in the system as a whole. That entails thinking of the system in aggregate (effectively netting out intra-system exposures), in terms of its position vis a vis borrowers and savers in the rest of the economy. And it means thinking of the system distributionally (ie gross), meaning the network of exposures amongst firms and taking into account the weakest links in the chain. Pulling those various strands together, a definition of financial stability that has informed my own contributions to the reform debate is the following: “financial stability prevails where the financial system is sufficiently resilient that worries about bad states of the world do not affect confidence in the ability of the system to deliver its core services to the rest of the economy.” The key words are “confidence” and “resilience”. “Bad states of the world” obviously include recessions; and other jolts from the real economy, due to the accumulation of too much debt within or between countries. Macro imbalances do not invariably lead to instability in the financial system, but they do often extend the chain of intermediation between savers and investors, can unravel in ways that reduce asset values and increase volatility, and are often sustained by accumulating indebtedness. In the face of ultimately unsustainable macroeconomic imbalances, whether domestically or internationally, the financial system therefore needs to be more resilient than otherwise.

In the United States, the largest productivity gains were not realized in the high-tech sector or from the IT investments itself but from the widespread use of information and communication technologies in traditional sectors like wholesale trade, financial intermediation and construction. The new technologies led to a complete reorganization of the value chain thereby enhancing total factor productivity, albeit with a lag. One cannot entirely exclude that this leverage effect will simply occur with a lag in Europe. After all, productivity growth is one of the least well understood phenomena in economics. While I do not want to exclude a productivity lag effect in favour of Europe, I suspect the story is a more complicated and a more challenging one. Structural conditions must be in place in Europe to allow maximum flexibility so that the full potential of the new technologies can be unleashed throughout the real economy. Conclusions The question of why the EU recovery is so slow implies a cyclical answer. The European track record of the last ten years, however, strongly suggests that there is a crucial structural dimension to the problem of weak European growth. The real challenge for the EU is to boost productivity growth and augment its potential growth rate. In the words of Mervyn King: “Raising productivity growth is the key to improving the prosperity of future generations.”4 It is therefore not particularly meaningful to analyze the growth weakness in Europe in purely cyclical terms.
The materialisation of certain risks, the return of volatility on financial markets and uncertainty about the economic outlook have meant that major banks need to make a special effort in three key areas: i) maintaining adequate capital ratios to cushion them from further shocks, which may still occur, ii) strengthening their risk management systems and processes, and iii) pricing credit and liquidity risks appropriately. To explain these developments, I would like to speak to you briefly about the following points. 1. First of all, the French banking system provided proof of its resilience in the face of financial turmoil in 2007. 2. The current economic situation calls for vigilance nonetheless, since banks must be ready to cope with new risks that may occur at any time. 3. Finally, as crisis conditions persist, I should like to talk about the main thrusts of the supervisory authorities’ actions. 1. The French banking system provided proof of its resilience in the face of financial turmoil in 2007  After posting good performances since 2003, the French banking system was hit by the fall-out from the subprime crisis starting in mid 2007, as were the banking systems in the other leading developed countries. This led to an extended period of strong turbulence. The impact of the crisis on banks’ earnings first shows up in the third quarter financial statements and then more clearly in the fourth-quarter statements.

A review of how refinancing risk could arise across all of a bank’s business lines is a priority; as is an analysis of how refinancing risk interacts with market risk, credit risk and concentration risk. The Committee of European Banking Supervisors and the Basel Committee, at the global level, are currently reviewing the principles governing liquidity risk management. On a final note, I would like to add that the crisis has highlighted the need to enhance internal control systems and to improve the circulation of information about risks, especially for senior managers. The exceptional case of fraud affecting Société Générale has strengthened our resolve in this matter. In France, this should lead to the amendment of Regulation 97.02 on internal control, with provisions on managing operating risk, along with specific efforts to fight fraud. This reform is connected to moves to ensure greater involvement of banks’ highest governance bodies in monitoring their internal control systems. All these initiatives draw on the lessons learned from the past, but they are also forward-looking. Their purpose is to establish the principles of risk management. These principles do not eliminate all risks, but they enhance the resilience of the system when tensions do emerge. This is the objective of the reforms, which I am sure will contribute to greater financial stability in the long run.