samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
•  One major process that left its mark on the 1990s is the breakthrough in technology, above all for computers and telecommunications. This had been on the way for a number of decades and began to flourish in many parts of the world as it became increasingly clear what the microchip had to offer. It can be likened to the development of the steam engine in the late 18th century or the combustion engine and the electric motor a century later. As we know, those earlier technical breakthroughs had far-reaching consequences for the development and transformation of our society. The process is not - either then or today - a simple progression. But the setbacks are manageable and pave the way for new advances. Many of the setbacks originate in faulty expectations of the new technology’s impact. •  The other major process has to do with the financial system’s deregulation in recent decades. As a result, we now have a world where capital markets and capital flows are about as free as they were before the outbreak of World War One. With the Great Depression and World War Two, the idea of returning to a less restricted financial system failed to catch on. It was not until the 1980s that deregulation reached Sweden, after starting somewhat earlier in many other industrialised countries, including the United States. A free financial system is needed in order to promote the development of new technology and a genuine social transformation.

As a result of exaggerated euphoria, a basis for risks that may lead to future instability can be created even before the threat of inflation becomes more visible. In the event of rapidly rising asset prices, with the associated risk of financial instability, a central bank should therefore keep a watchful eye on credit expansion in the economy. Under such circumstances the central bank may need to intervene in the interests of financial stability. In my opinion, interest rate adjustments should certainly not be ruled out if they are judged to be effective. In other contexts I have mentioned the desirability of such a “flexible inflation targeting policy” and believe that support for action of this type is to be found in current legislation. The recent share price bubble was not accompanied by any undue expansion of credit. This was no doubt partly because the Swedish bank crisis is still so fresh in people’s minds and banks here have made the process of providing credit much more rigorous. The IT and telecom bubble in the 1990s So much for financial bubbles in general and what general economic policy can do. There is, however, more to learn from WorldCom, Enron and the whole of the IT and telecom bubble. American studies suggest that the new technology which enabled people to do their own share trading on the Internet attracted many people who were unfamiliar with saving in shares.
We managed to survive this strain by taking, on the one hand, unconventional and controversial measures to prevent market dislocation that could have been very destabilising, and, on the other hand, belt and brace measures to strengthen the defence mechanism of our financial system. I am pleased to say that these actions have been successful, as reflected in the marked change in sentiment in our markets and the sharp fall in the interest rate premium for our currency over the US dollar. Although we continue to endure what has become a very painful economic adjustment, we can now work through this adjustment without it being grossly exacerbated by the kind of extreme market overshooting brought about by the manipulative attacks we faced last summer. The adjustment taking place is rapid and pronounced: we saw a decline in asset values of some 50% at the peak of the crisis, a doubling of our unemployment rate to around 5.5% and a fall in our GDP last year of 5%. However, if this is the adjustment necessary to re-establish our competitiveness we have, and are prepared, to accept it. But we can do without the collateral damage and general trauma of overshooting experienced by so many other economies in the region. We believe that our fundamental strengths can help us through this adjustment, just as they have helped us through the many other transitions of the past few decades, whether economic or political.

This is a long-term possibility, but it would have the advantage of reflecting the strong trade linkages in the region. It would also create bigger and more liquid markets that are less susceptible to manipulation. It would also help address problems of intermediating financial resources within Asia. At present, Asia’s central banks invest massive amounts in foreign securities, particularly U.S. dollar assets, only to see volatile funds flow back to the region from overseas markets. By investing reserves directly in Asian financial assets, this type of costly and unstable recycling through developed markets could be reduced. There are, of course, many obstacles in the way of creating an Asian Currency Unit. The various economies of the region operate under widely differing economic regimes, and are at different stages of development. An institution would be necessary to administer the system, and the politics involved would doubtless be very complex. But I believe that now is a useful time to raise this topic for discussion, at least at an intellectual level: successful implementation in the longer term would go a long way towards addressing the currency instability we have seen in the region over the last year and a half. After all, it has taken the more homogeneous Europe fifty years to bring the euro into existence. A further long-term solution lies in the development of stable and transparent debt markets in the region.
Indeed, if inflation is more than 1% above or below target, the Governor is required to write an open letter to the Chancellor to explain why. But the accountability of the MPC is much wider than this. It has to answer to Court (the Bank’s board made up largely of non-executive directors) and to the Treasury Select Committee. But of equal importance, through publication of the Inflation Report and the minutes of its monthly meetings, the MPC answers to the public, setting out in some detail the decisions it has made. And this accountability is personal. The votes of each of the nine individual members are recorded in the minutes. As you might imagine, knowing that one’s voting record will be subject to public scrutiny helps wonderfully to concentrate the mind. But we think it is important that differences of view are properly reflected; and nor is it altogether surprising that differences of view exist given the uncertainties in economic forecasting. 1  BIS Review 19/2000  Transparency is another key ingredient of the new framework. Holding MPC meetings on a regular monthly cycle, with minutes published within two weeks, contrasts with the more ad hoc approach of the past, Chancellors announcing changes with little or no notice and with limited explanation. The minutes not only record the discussion within the MPC and explain the decision reached but also list the data that the Committee has considered. The Committee relies primarily on official statistics but these are often produced on aggregate basis and with a lag.

At the time there was evidence of a breakdown in communication and trust between small firms and their finance providers which threatened the effectiveness of the provision of finance to this sector of the economy. Since that time, the situation has improved, in part against a background of economic growth but also with a change in the structure of small business finance with a move away from overdrafts towards some element of fixed-term  3  BIS Review 19/2000  lending. A particular interest has been financing for high technology companies, focusing attention on the access that technology-based firms have to the equity they need in their early stages. The Bank produced its first report in this area in 1996 and has since held an annual forum with regular meetings with small business groups, venture capitalists and fund managers. Small business investment is especially relevant for Wales given the ongoing need to attract more knowledge-based industries to replace more traditional sources of investment. One final area where the Bank has taken an active role is worth mentioning; and that is in assisting the UK financial sector in its practical preparations for EMU. This was concentrated in the run-up to the introduction of the euro at the end of 1998 but the UK’s readiness at that time has meant that a large part of cross-border business in euro, whether in bonds or equities, is transacted with the UK, particularly in London.
Group of Thirty (2009), Financial Reform: A Framework for Financial Stability, available at http://www.group30.org/pubs/pub_1460.htm Haldane, A. G (2009), Rethinking the Financial Network, http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2009/speech386.pdf  available  at  Homer, S. and Sylla, R (2005), A History of Interest Rates: Fourth Edition, John Wiley & Sons. Kashyap, A. K., Raghuram, R. G. and Stein, J. C (2008), “Rethinking Capital Regulation”, Maintaining Stability in a Changing Financial System, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Kay, J (2009), Narrow Banking: The Reform of Banking Regulation. Keynes, J. M (1931), “The Consequences to the Banks of the Collapse of Money Values”, Essays in Persuasion, Macmillan Publishers. King, M (2009), Speech to Scottish business organisations, Edinburgh, available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2009/speech406.pdf Laeven, L. and Valencia, F. V (2009), “Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database”, IMF Working Paper No. 08/224. Logan, A (2000), “The Early 1990s Small Banks’ Crisis: Leading Indicators”, Bank of England Financial Stability Review Issue 09. NYU Stern School of Business (2008), Repairing the US Financial Architecture: An Independent View. Rajan, R (1998), “The Past and Future of Commercial Banking Viewed through an Incomplete Contract Lens”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Vol 30(3). Reinhart, C. M and Rogoff, K (2009), This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press. Sheppard, D. K (1971), The Growth and Role of U.K. Financial Institutions 1880-1962, Methuen. Thornton, H (1802), An Inquiry into the Nature and Effects of the Paper Credit of Great Britain, J. Hatchard.

The policy was expected to contribute to inflation being below the target during a relatively long period, to then be around 2 per cent, measured in terms of the CPI, during 2007. Underlying inflation, the CPIX, was expected to be around 1.5 per cent. The inflation outcome was close to these forecasts – at 2.2 and 1.2 per cent respectively. As I just observed, one cannot rely too heavily on individual forecasts. But I cannot deny that it, psychologically at least, feels far more satisfying than if we had been further away. But, naturally, the actual assessment of how well we have managed is the responsibility of the Committee on Finance. And the Committee’s initiative to the independent material for assessment that we have now published will hopefully make it easier to examine our work. I hope it will contribute to a good discussion on monetary policy. Thank you! 4  BIS Review 22/2008  The goal for monetary policy  2 per cent ±1 percentage point  Why?   Create the best possible conditions for sustainable economic development! Monetary policy at present…  The repo rate was raised by 0,25  percentage points to 4,25 per cent  Repo rate around 4,25 per cent over the  coming year  The view of the future repo rate largely the  same as in December  BIS Review 22/2008  5  Inflation above target Annual percentage change. Broken lines refer to the Riksbank’s forecasts.
On this front, we have seen increased diversity, both in terms of product offerings as well as in the issuers. In the area of product offerings, for example, we have seen an increase in the offering of commodity-related financial products. The Singapore Commodity Exchange launched a Robusta coffee futures contract in April last year. The Singapore Mercantile Exchange launched in August last year also provides a platform for trading a diversified basket of commodities including futures and options contracts on precious metals, agriculture commodities and energy. We have also replicated the success of the real estate investment trusts model for the infrastructure sector, further adding to the diversity of our capital markets. 14. On top of the increased diversity in product offerings, we are also encouraged by the increased diversity of issuers coming to tap into the depth and liquidity of our capital markets. Last year, we saw the first Russian debt issue in the Singapore market when VTB Bank launched its Sing Dollar Eurobond here. This paves the way for other highly rated Russian issuers to access our markets. In the area of Islamic finance, a number of international players have also tapped our markets for their shariah-compliant instruments. They include Saudi Arabia’s Al Rajhi Group1 and Malaysia’s Khazanah Nasional2. In November last year, Sabana also launched the first shariah-compliant Real Estate Investment Trust in Singapore, which is also the world’s largest shariah-compliant REIT. 15. Singapore plays a key role as a gateway to Asia, facilitating capital and investment flows.

The terms of trade will be somewhat lower than expected in March. This is explained by the weak global growth outlook, in a context where commodity prices have already declined since the beginning of the year. In the case of copper prices, averages of $ $ and $ per pound are forecast for 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively. For oil, the projection points to average Brent-WTI prices of $ in 2023, gradually declining to $ in 2025. Food prices have behaved in line with expectations, and a downward trajectory similar to the March Report is maintained for the near future (figure 19). Monetary policy The conduct of monetary policy has played an important part in the decline of inflation. This has called for a contractionary monetary policy, with the MPR being held constant for several quarters. Although risks to inflation persist, they have been balancing out. The Board believes that the most recent developments in the economy point in the required direction. If these trends continue, the MPR will begin a downward process in the near term. The magnitude and timing of this process will be reviewed on a meeting-to-meeting basis, taking into account the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario and its implications for the trajectory of inflation. As always, the most likely MPR trajectory is plotted through a corridor whose boundaries reflect sensitivity scenarios where the pace of inflationary convergence leads to rate adjustments different from those in the central scenario.
Caleb M Fundanga: Increasing access to financial services in Zambia Remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the official opening of National Savings and Credit Bank, Lukulu Branch, Lusaka, 27 May 2009. *  *  *  The Guest of Honour; the Honourable Minister of Finance and National Planning; Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane, MP The Honourable Minister for Western Province; The Deputy Permanent Secretary for Western Province; The Honourable Members of Parliament for Lukulu East and West; The Acting Ngambela Imbua Imwaka representing the Barotse Royal Establishment; The District Commissioners for Lukulu and Kaoma; The Board and Management of National Savings and Credit Bank; Distinguished invited guests; Ladies and gentlemen. 1. On behalf of the Bank of Zambia Governor, I would like to thank the Board of Directors and Management of National Savings and Credit Bank for inviting us to the occasion of the opening of another rural branch in Zambia, this time in Lukulu. 2. National Savings and Credit Bank (also commonly referred to as NATSAVE) was established on 1 April 1972 by the National Savings and Credit Bank Act of 1972 and it commenced business operations in March 1973. The amendments to the Banking and Financial Services Act of 2000 extended the supervisory authority of the Bank of Zambia to NATSAVE which was until then, supervised by the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP). 3.

(ii)  The BoZ took a step towards regulating microfinance institutions (MFIs) in 2006 because these institutions can help in narrowing the access gap in the delivery of financial services. So far, 21 MFIs have been licensed but most of these operate along the line of rail providing mainly salary-backed loans. More institutions are still needed to increase outreach and deliver financial services in a safe, sound and sustainable manner;  (iii)  Zambia is predominantly an agricultural country, but lending to agriculture has been limited. The challenge therefore is to devise financial products that meet the requirements of the rural and predominantly agricultural areas while at the same time devising means of protecting the financial institutions from risks associated with agricultural lending. 8. Allow me to conclude my remarks by highlighting the need for banks and non-bank financial institutions to consider their customers and potential customers when determining the pricing of their products and services. The public continues to decry the high level of charges and interest rates for banking services and products. 9. The BoZ has previously and will continue to appeal to the financial sector to review their charges and to explore ways of enhancing efficiency in service delivery. 10. The majority of Zambians cannot afford the current banking charges and are effectively shut out of the financial system. More affordable banking services will draw in a larger number of Zambians to the financial system, which will in turn be beneficial to the development of the banking system and the economy at large.
Euromoney Conferences: The Greater Mekong Investment Forum “Confidence in Connectivity of the GMS” Speech by Dr. Veerathai Santiprabhob, Governor of the Bank of Thailand Bangkok, June 1, 2017 Excellencies, Distinguished Speakers, Ladies and Gentlemen. A very good morning to you all. Let me first thank Mr. Tony Shale, the CEO of Euromoney Asia, for organizing this conference and inviting me to join you once again this year. It is always a great pleasure to speak at the GMS Investment Forum. Let me also extend a warm welcome to those of you who travelled from abroad. *** Ladies and gentlemen, Established way back in 1992, the GMS marks a quarter of a century milestone this year. To me, the GMS today is like a promising 25-year-old graduate from a prestigious university, full of energy and potential, on her way to making a mark in her career. The GMS is a dynamic region, linked by the richness of the great Mekong river, with abundant endowments and opportunities awaiting to be further explored. Last year, I expressed my confidence in the future of the GMS, as a result of synergy and connectivity that had been harnessed over the years. Today, I would like to once again reiterate the importance of regional connectivity, as prospects for trade and investment opportunities in the GMS have improved with a more positive global economic outlook.

The Thai government also uses PromptPay to deliver electronic welfare payments to individuals, with a 1  ADB and World Bank statistics, 2015 ADB, 2015: from $ billion in 1992 to $ billion in 2015 3 Greater Mekong Subregion Regional Investment Framework Implementation Plan 2020, 2016 4 World Bank Remittance Prices, 2017 2  2  view to minimizing costs, risks of fraud as well as financial leakage. Given PromptPay’s open architecture, we hope that the system will soon be integrated into the daily lives of the Thai public. Up to now, these payment platforms are mostly used for domestic transactions. What we need is to connect these platforms to facilitate larger cross-border financial activities in the GMS. Having an efficient cross-border payment platform in the GMS will yield tremendous benefits for economic activities in the region, especially for border trade. I believe that it will not take long before solutions for cross-border payments become widespread. As of now, a partnership between a Thai telecommunication company and Myanmar businesses offers a cross-border remittance solution that allows sending money directly to recipients, including those in rural areas of Myanmar. In Thailand, cooperation between a Thai bank and a Chinese FinTech firm will soon launch a low-cost baht-yuan cross-currency remittance platform based on blockchain technology. These initiatives are promising projects that will lower costs of financial transaction, and enhance closer financial connectivity and economic integration in the GMS region. *** On coverage of financial services: At present, financial services in the GMS are mainly provided by local players.
The Modigliani-Miller proposition is that the two effects offset exactly, leaving the overall cost of finance unchanged. The argument is simple: so long as the returns on a firm’s portfolio of assets – ie its business – do not vary as its financing structure changes, the total cost of its funding is invariant to how those returns and risks are divided up between shareholders and debt-holders. If that were true, there would be no cost to banks, or to the real economy, from ever higher equity requirements. Nor – and this point is rarely made – would there be an objection to the opposite: ever higher leverage in ever more thinly capitalised banks. In reality, a number of features of the real world break the Modigliani-Miller result. As for all firms, interest paid by banks on debt is deductible from corporation tax, which reduces the cost of debt relative to equity. Other things being equal, the average cost of funding can therefore be reduced by issuing debt. That cost advantage should be largely passed on to customers.4 In addition, banks are special in that they fund themselves with retail deposits, which provide monetary services: the nature of banks’ liabilities are central to their business, not just how their business is financed. Many of those deposits are protected by guarantee schemes. Interest rates on transactions deposits are, therefore, not especially sensitive to the risks a bank is running, making it cheaper for banks to fund themselves via this particular form of debt finance.

The funds diverted to those counterparties reduce the amount available to others, intensifying the scramble to get to the front of the line. For non-financial firms, an automatic stay mitigates a disorderly destruction of value. But banks are in the business of circulating funds and cannot function under a persistent payment freeze. There are also wider economic costs. Smaller firms without easy access to public debt markets face switching costs if they have to establish new banking relationships. While they are searching for new credit, they are likely to cut spending, adversely affecting the economy.6 Failure therefore brings substantial costs, for both the failed bank’s creditors and wider society. The equity owners need not internalize all these costs so debt finance should carry a risk premium, incentivising equity to be preferred over debt, ie lower leverage.7 Taken together, these various departures from Modigliani-Miller’s simple world mean that a bank’s overall funding costs do depend on its capital structure, but in a non-linear way. So long as a bank’s capital buffer is sufficient to make the perceived probability of bankruptcy remote, the bank will most likely want to economise on equity, if only for tax reasons. By contrast, if capital levels are too thin, bankruptcy will be a real possibility. Economising on equity capital is then likely to prove counter-productive as debt-holders, with an eye to the costs of resolution or liquidation, will demand ever higher rates of interest.