samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Likewise, the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator improved for the third consecutive month in January. However, the latest figures on industrial output in the euro area are a reminder that overcoming the manufacturing recession that has weighed on the euro area growth performance in the last couple of years is still challenging. We draw some comfort from the fact that, as yet, we do not see spillovers from the manufacturing weakness to the service sector. In the third quarter of 2019, euro area consumption increased by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, while resilient retail sales and broadly stable consumer confidence indicate robust consumer spending also in the following months. The services sector continues to be strong and survey indicators remain in expansionary territory. Consumption is supported by solid labour markets dynamics. According to Eurostat’s flash estimates, in the fourth quarter of 2019, employment expanded by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, while unemployment declined further to 7.4% in December, the lowest level since May 2008. The number of people employed has increased by more than 11 million since its trough in mid-2013. At the same time, while investment is supported by favourable financing conditions, it was curbed by the slowdown in the euro area growth momentum and by the elevated uncertainties over the past quarters. Looking ahead, the underlying fundamentals for a continued though moderate expansion of the euro area economy remain in place, as foreseen in the December 2019 Eurosystem staff projections, which entail annual real GDP increasing by 1.1% in 2020, 1.4% in 2021 and in 2022.

This is broadly reflected in the latest December 2019 Eurosystem staff projections, which foresee inflation at 1.1% in 2020, 1.4% in 2021 and 1.6% in 2022. At the same time, annual HICP inflation excluding energy and food is expected to be 1.3% in 2020, 1.4% in 2021 and 1.6% in 2022. The monetary policy stance Against a backdrop that remains clouded, the euro area economy still needs strong support from monetary policy. The policy stimulus that is in place is working its way through the economy and is expected to support growth and job creation, a key precondition for inflation to move towards our medium term inflation aim. Hence, at the last meeting, the Governing Council confirmed its forward guidance on the ECB’s policy interest rates, asset purchases and reinvestments. According to our guidance, we expect to maintain the key ECB interest rates “at their present or lower level until the inflation outlook robustly converges to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within the projection horizon.” While rate guidance has been effective in steering rate expectations along the short- to mediumterm portion of the term structure, our ongoing net purchases, at a monthly pace of € billion, act primarily on the longer end of it. We also continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme for an extended period of time “past the date when we start raising the key ECB interest rates”.
Barbro Wickman-Parak: Many dimensions to well-balanced monetary policy Speech by Ms Barbro Wickman-Parak, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Swedbank, Stockholm, 26 January 2011. *  *  *  Today, I will give an account of my stance at the latest monetary policy meeting in December. This will be a rather brief account, however, because I also want to find time to take up several important but difficult-to-assess factors in the recent monetary policy debate. For example, I would like to discuss different measures of monetary policy expectations and the risks that the development of household indebtedness and housing prices may entail in the long term. I will also say a few words about the concept of well-balanced monetary policy, and then conclude with some reflections on monetary policy decision-making. What I wish to illustrate is that no matter how well-prepared the material we base our decisions on, we are nevertheless confronted with important deliberations that are difficult to assess and which we must take a stand on. All aspects must be discussed from several different perspectives. I believe that this kind of all-round discussion leads to better monetary policy decisions. And it is only natural that this can mean we do not always agree on the repo rate decisions. Monetary policy is not an automatic reading exercise; our assessments are necessary parts of the decision-making process. Strong growth creates a need to gradually raise the repo rate Most analysts agree that the Swedish economy is growing strongly and at a surprising rate.

11  In the decade ahead, members of the G20 will be increasingly well-positioned to defer to each other’s comparable regulatory outcomes, supported by commitments to common minimum standards and open supervisory co-operation. These commitments could be reinforced by reliance on independent peer reviews and a new, independent dispute resolution mechanism. Brexit will be a litmus test of the future of international cooperation. The UK and the rest of the EU have exactly the same rules and the most highly developed frameworks of supervisory cooperation. Their capital and banking markets are already highly integrated. They have the potential to create the template for trade in financial services. Conclusion A decade on from the start of the crisis, the G20 is building an efficient and resilient financial system which serves our domestic economies and supports sustainable cross-border investment and economic activity. As the global recovery strengthens and broadens, now is the time to take full advantage of these hard won gains. That means completing the journey from fragility to resilience by ensuring that: -  shadow banking is fully transformed into resilient market-based finance,  -  durable market infrastructure is in place,  -  we complete the job of ending too big to fail, and  -  emerging vulnerabilities are addressed in a timely and consistent manner. That means adjusting the reform measures dynamically to maximise efficient resilience and avoid unintended consequences. 11  The UK was an early adopter.
Competition is a part of Hong Kong’s free market ethos. It is already strong in the banking sector here. We have witnessed it in particular – and occasionally with some concern – in the mortgage war and in the provision of credit card and other consumer services. Competition is being sharpened and stimulated by globalisation, which opens up hitherto restricted markets to businesses that are able to export their strengths, and by technological advance, which puts a premium on innovation and ingenuity. BIS Review 55/2001  1  For the economy as a whole, competition promotes efficiency in the allocation of resources and strength and flexibility in the face of change or crisis. In the banking sector, greater competition strengthens both individual banks, by forcing them to focus on their own core competence, and the banking system as a whole, by weeding out inefficiencies. For the consumer, competition promotes choice, quality and efficiency in products and services, and more reasonable costs. But competition, by its very nature, produces winners and losers. It also complicates the relationship between banks and customers, as services and fee structures become more complex and more sophisticated products proliferate. The general government policy on competition in Hong Kong is to adopt a sector-specific approach. We are not disposed to the idea of a general, overarching competition authority, since each sector of the economy has its own special needs and concerns.

Before I turn to that subject, I should like to address, very briefly, two broad interconnected subjects: first, the theme of competition, particularly in the context of the current programme of banking sector reform; and secondly, the question of consumer protection, in the light of increasing competition and other trends. Competition and banking sector reform We are now two years into our programme of extensive banking sector reform. In fact, the first measure under that programme was my clarification, at your dinner in June 1999, of the HKMA’s policy on the question of Lender of Last Resort. It was a pretty heavy-going speech for an after-dinner occasion, and I still recall the drooping eyelids and stifled yawns. But at least those of you who sat through it can take satisfaction in the fact that you were witnessing a minor historical event. Since then, the reform programme has made a great deal of progress. In 1999 we relaxed the “one building” condition on foreign banks licensed since 1978. Last year we expanded access to Real Time Gross Settlement and implemented the first phase in the deregulation of the remaining Interest Rate Rules. We also completed a study and a public consultation on the case for establishing a commercial credit reference agency. Earlier this year, a similar public consultation was completed on the case for a deposit insurance scheme. The general view in these consultations was that the two schemes should be pursued, although we fully recognise that there are dissenting opinions on the question of deposit insurance.
Lars Nyberg: The financial crisis Speech by Mr Lars Nyberg, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at HQ Bank, 15 October 2008. *  *  *  Over the past year my colleagues on the Executive Board and I have spoken on several occasions about the financial turbulence currently affecting the entire global economy. We have had reason to return to the topic because the turbulence is constantly taking new twists and turns. The turmoil has intensified during the autumn and once again we have reason to reflect on what is happening and what will happen. That is also what I intend to do in my speech here today. I would also like to take this opportunity to speak about the role of the Riksbank and other authorities in relation to this situation and about what needs to happen to calm the unrest. However, I would like to begin with a brief glance at the past. Run-up to the crisis The financial turmoil began over a year ago with the notorious subprime crisis. For a long time, US financial institutions had engaged in aggressive lending to borrowers with weak credit histories, after which the loans were repackaged and sold to investors all over the world. When the credit losses on these loans became unexpectedly large, it was clear that those who had invested had grossly underestimated the risks.

Together with the measures that the National Debt Office have taken, the Riksbank's lending of both Swedish krona and US dollars contribute to a general strengthening of liquidity primarily in the Swedish credit markets, thereby also creating conditions for the markets to return to more normal conditions and allowing financial stability to be maintained. Second of all the Riksbank has – as I just mentioned – also provided special liquidity assistance to Kaupthing Bank Sweden. This loan is against collateral and with an interest rate that is above normal lending costs. Even if this measure is aimed at an individual bank, it should also be viewed as an initiative to safeguard financial stability and to maintain confidence in Sweden's entire credit and payment system. The decision is based on the assessment that although the bank is solvent, it is unable to perform its obligations without  4  BIS Review 125/2008  liquidity assistance. What happens next with Kaupthing Sweden is mainly a question for the bank's owner, the Icelandic state. The liquidity support to Kaupthing differs in many regards from the Riksbank's other measures. In this case the support is aimed at an individual institution and not at money market participants in general. In Kaupthing's case the point was to enable the bank to obtain any funding whatsoever and thereby continue to exist.
And to find the means to counteract the build-up of large imbalances the authorities must begin to think along new lines. This is important but also difficult work. The financial sector is dynamic in the sense that new instruments, techniques and institutions are constantly appearing. This means that the risks are also constantly changing. Not least, the increase in the banks' cross-border operations and their increasing dependence on market funding pose new challenges to the authorities that are responsible for the stability of the financial system. This means that authorities like the Riksbank need to constantly reconsider and develop their methods. Ongoing and intensive everyday efforts are important, even when the crisis has receded and the spotlight is no longer aimed at the financial side of the economy. Since the bank crisis of the 1990s, the Riksbank has developed the tools it uses to promote financial stability. But these tools are largely "soft". They entail persuading and convincing those involved with good arguments, something that is usually referred to as "moral suasion". This distinguishes the Riksbank from, for ex-ample, Finansinspektionen, which has wider powers to intervene directly at individual institutions. When times are good, it may also be tempting to ignore the warnings of the authorities and it may be difficult to resist the opportunity to expand when all the indicators are positive.

A study by the Asian Institute of Finance in 2015 found a majority of youth to be living on high borrowing costs – 38% of youths rely on personal loans, while another 47% engage in expensive credit card borrowings. Often, they will soon find these debts to be burdensome and result in financial problems. From January to August this year, AKPK’s data indicated that above 3,400 borrowers between the ages of 20– 30 years have sought AKPK’s assistance, as compared to 3,450 borrowers for the entire of 2016. Third, majority of Malaysians do not practice long term financial planning. Only 40% of Malaysians consider themselves financially ready for retirement, despite the steadily increasing life expectancy of Malaysians. The poverty line in Malaysia is currently at RM950 per month, and based on the Employee Provident Fund (EPF), a retiree would need an estimate of RM228,000 upon retirement to generate sufficient investment income to live above the poverty line for the 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  next 20 years. However, according to Khazanah Research Institute, the average EPF savings of those in the 51–55 age group is only approximately RM160,000. Lack of awareness on the importance of having sufficient saving for retirement can lead to profound results, including the struggle to meet post-retirement standard of living. Fourth, Malaysians still lack understanding on risk and return and are not able to make rational financial decisions. We remain prone to financial fraud and abuse.
The Institute conducts research to measure, analyze, and make recommendations to improve the economic well-being of all Americans, with a particular focus on structural barriers that limit full participation in economic opportunity and advancement. Lagging Economic Mobility In a free market economy, some wage inequality is inevitable given variability in individuals’ endowments, skill sets, and education levels. These attributes influence the demand for their services and the wages they are paid. We don’t expect those just starting out to have the skills of more experienced workers. But, the access and opportunity needed to attain the attributes associated with higher wages may not be uniform—and that is concerning. Inequality reflects impediments to people reaching their potential. These include limits on access to education, credit, transportation, and housing. Such impediments may discourage workers from investing in themselves, and may lead some to drop out of the labor force. We should all work to ensure that people have opportunities to develop their skills, build human capital, and improve their job prospects. To me, inequality is especially problematic when it reflects and reinforces barriers to economic mobility. Too many parents are increasingly pessimistic about their children’s economic future. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, only 37 percent of American parents think their children will be better off financially than they are.3 This is a deeply troubling finding. I 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  believe that income inequality is generally less problematic when it does not impede economic mobility and when economic mobility is high.

The next step would be for the HKMA to work with the banking industry and the fintech community to turn the findings and advice in the second whitepaper into a set of practical guidelines for the use of DLT in the banking sector in the future. Given the rapidly evolving nature of DLT, this is no easy task to undertake. We welcome comments and input from the stakeholders and stand ready to share the findings of our research and practical experience with our international peers. Conclusion 19. Ladies and gentlemen, now is an exciting time for financial innovation. Technology is a game changer for the future of banking, payment and other financial services. It will differentiate winners from losers. I am very pleased to share with you today the important progress made by Hong Kong in cross-border collaboration and the use of DLT applications. As I said in my speech last month, the transformation of our banking system to a new and higher level of Smart Banking is not just something that is nice to a have, it is a must! To stay relevant and ahead of the game in this new era, I am sure you will agree that the collaborative efforts and research developments that I just mentioned are the essential building blocks to facilitate financial innovation and prepare Hong Kong to advance to the new Smart Banking Era. 20.
Notes: What happens after a shock to the expected loss rate; a sudden change in firms' expected loss rate on bonds causes both short-term fluctuations in yield, and a new, higher long-term yield. Results presented are the median of 100 individual simulations runs, individual model runs exhibit a range of outcomes. Source: Braun-Munzinger et al (2016). The outcomes for median yield over 100 trading days after a 0.36% loss rate shock. Percentiles indicate the distribution of results taken from 250 simulation runs. How can this model help in understanding the dynamics of real-world financial markets and the appropriate setting of policy in these markets? Chart 13 compares the actual distribution of corporate bond prices changes with the distribution which emerges from ABM simulations. There is a reasonable correspondence between the two, with fatter than normal tails. The model can be used counter-factually – for example, to assess the impact of a rise in the number of passive or momentum traders relative to value investors. This makes for larger and longer-lived oscillations. So too does a reduction in the market-making capacity – for example, lower market-maker inventories – as this amplifies the impact on prices of any shock to fund demand. One topical policy issue is whether constraints might be imposed on some funds to forestall investor redemptions in the face of falling prices and performance. For example, US money market mutual funds experienced such redemption runs during the course of the financial crisis.

For social systems, this does not sound too implausible. Humans are social animals. Indeed, the feature which set humans apart from other animals is their degree of social interaction  Chart 5: The most highly cited articles on agent-based  (Harari (2015)). modelling across disciplines  This, on the face of it, modest adaptation gives rise to some fundamental changes in model dynamics. Linear, proportional responses to shocks become the exception; complex, non-linear responses the rule. Single, stationary equilibria become the exception; multiple, evolutionary equilibria the rule. I discuss these differences in the next section. Before doing so, I want to bring to life some of the uses of ABMs. These models have found widespread application across a broad array of disciplines in both the natural and social sciences. They have been used to address a  Source: Google scholar; Bank calculations. Notes: This was found by performing a Google Scholar search of the relevant term for “agentbased modelling” in each field and then using the citation count of the most highly cited paper which could be fairly and solely attributed to each distinct field. When searching for “Monte Carlo” only papers modelling distinct subsystems were considered and not those using the technique of random number generation more generally. massive array of problems, big and small: from segregating nuts to segregating races, from simulating the fate of the universe to simulating the fate of a human cell, from military planning to family planning, from flocking birds to herding (fat) cats.
The links between exchange rate crises and banking crises - the so-called twin crises - and the feedback mechanisms between the two are, along with the propagation and contagion channels from one country to another, matters of particular importance here. National regulators and supervisors, in addition to their initial aim of safeguarding the solvency of individual institutions, have given increasing importance to combining the presence of flexible, efficient financial markets and intermediaries with the absence of excessive volatility on financial markets and to prevent the so-called systemic risks - which affect the whole of the financial system - from materialising. International financial institutions have also become increasingly oriented towards the need to ensure a proper functioning of international financial markets and to limit the transmission of shocks from one country to another in a world of ever deeper and swifter linkages. The relationship between national and international financial stability is obviously all the more important for countries, such as Spain, whose banking system has a significant presence abroad. The expansion of Spanish banks into Latin America explains why the Banco de España has, in recent years, promoted the monitoring and analysis of financial stability problems in this region in particular, and in the emerging market economies in general, an area in which the role of the International Monetary Fund has become increasingly important.

The task of the central banks was to provide the general public with money in the form of banknotes and coins that did not entail any credit risk and that inspired confidence – what was known as central bank money. This task included price stability, that is, that the central banks guaranteed the long-term value of the money. To begin with, the central banks had this task parallel to commercial banks, which issued their own banknotes. Then money from different issuers could have different values, depending on how much money had been issued, and exchange rates could arise between different types of money. Eventually, the central banks were also given the responsibility for creating a uniform standard. In Sweden, this took place in 1904, when the Riksbank was given a monopoly on issuing banknotes and commercial banks stopped issuing them. In time, the banks were able to develop payment channels that enabled the general public to use their account balances as money. In the beginning this involved cheques and gradually card payments were developed. In Sweden, there were also state initiatives to make payments more effective. In the 1920s, the Postgirot system was created, which enable efficient transfers of money to and from accounts in the system. Just over 20 years later, the banks emulated this and created their own joint system, Bankgirot. All of these systems are examples of account-based means of payment.