samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
We must not forget this, neither today nor at any time in the future, not only to valorize the past, but also to be able to make now our contribution to the future of our authentic story. What is more, we must never forget that we have an obligation to continue the story in this chapter, because as Stefanovski said, "identity is both work and responsibility." It is the work and the responsibility that have been the exact postulates of the National Bank over the past thirty years. A lot of work, with full commitment, independence and professionalism in overcoming challenges and achieving goals under various, not always easy circumstances, in historical turmoil and milestones. Not only as an occasion, but essentially we must keep reminding ourselves where we started off thirty years ago. At the beginning of this crucial monetary chapter of our story we started with almost zero foreign reserves, hyperinflation which in 1992 reached close to 1700%, recession, permanent depreciation of the domestic currency and general macroeconomic instability. The effect of all this was experienced by the citizens  1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  and all stakeholders in the economy, which was flagging until 1996. We must never forget it, because when the memory of historical events is lost, the potential for critical observation and making the right decisions in the present moment is lost as well. But we do remember!

In this respect, we should learn from the unsatisfactory outcomes that have emerged in some of the more developed markets where product disclosures can run into 60-page documents, which no one can reasonably expect an average consumer to read, let alone understand. Ultimately, the purpose of disclosures must be to help consumers understand the risks associated with different product options. In this context, more information is not necessarily better. The quality of information and financial capability of consumers must be enhanced in tandem with improved disclosures. Of course, increasing product innovations also need to be matched by strong risk and portfolio management capabilities critical to ensure the long-term sustainability and viability of the products offered in the market as well as the financial soundness of insurance companies. The operating landscape in which we operate has also changed significantly. Convergence in financial services has blurred the boundaries between insurance, banking and capital market activities. In this environment, financial sector regulation and supervision has become significantly more challenging. The increasing linkages between insurance and the banking systems as well as capital markets have increased the importance of achieving a harmonised regulatory approach and standard across sectors to minimise possibilities of regulatory arbitrage between different types of institutions. Under such environment, the approach towards regulatory and supervisory framework also has to evolve in tandem with the change in the environment. Recognising these dynamic changes, Bank Negara Malaysia took efforts to strengthen our regulatory and supervisory capabilities as well as sharpen our focus.
5 And in the next few years, these current account surpluses are likely to remain high and the build up of foreign assets by governments in oil exporting and Asian countries is likely to continue. According to the IMF’s forecasts, the combined current account surplus of China and oil-exporting countries will be around $ billion over the next 3 years. And the IMF estimates that sovereign wealth fund assets could grow to $ trillion within the next 5 years. The impact of SWFs on financial markets These are huge numbers and SWFs have become prominent and important players in many financial markets. But we should not exaggerate their impact on the global financial system. In aggregate, their assets under management are currently only less than one-twentieth of those held by private sector participants such as pension, insurance and mutual funds as well as hedge funds and private equity (Chart 4). And they account for about 2% of the total size of equity and bond markets globally. Even in five years time – and on some of the fastest growth projections – assets under management by sovereign wealth funds are projected to reach only about 6% of global financial assets. 6 Moreover, though they have more assets under management than hedge funds they have smaller investments since they are not leveraged. 7 It is not difficult to identify positive effects on the world’s capital markets. Sovereign wealth funds have long investment horizons and generally have no commercial liabilities.

Pension funds – reacting with moderation and flexibility Ladies and gentlemen, the pension funds have not been idle in the last few years with regard to the challenges mentioned. As pension fund managers, you have shown moderation and great flexibility in initiating various measures to bring your pension funds’ income and expenditure into equilibrium over the long term as well. On the investment side, the exposure to fixed-income instruments has been reduced – given the persistently low interest rates – in favour of equities and real estate (cf. chart 4). Furthermore, the pension funds have again become more active abroad, and are keeping their liquid assets to a minimum. Indeed, liquidity as a share of total investment assets is currently at a historic low (cf. chart 5). You have also had to take action on the benefits side in order to balance income and expenditure over the longer term. These cuts are painful and have been directly reflected in people’s insurance certificates. One example is the sharp reduction in the conversion rate for non-mandatory cover. 8 Moreover, the technical interest rate 9 has been lowered by 40% in the last ten years. This took account of the probability that income from the ‘third contributor’ would also be greatly limited in future.
You will find our detailed explanatory evaluations regarding the base effect and its effects on 2010 inflation outlook in a box under the third chapter of the Inflation Report to be posted on our website shortly. I strongly recommend that you read these evaluations carefully. The fact that inflation is expected to stay at elevated levels for some time due to tax adjustments and strong base effects highlights the importance of expectations management. In this respect, with the awareness of these temporary factors, it is critical that economic agents focus on the medium-term inflation trend, and therefore, take inflation targets as a benchmark for their pricing plans and contracts. I would like to emphasize once more that any new data or information regarding the inflation outlook may lead to a change in the monetary policy stance. Therefore, assumptions regarding future policy rates underlying the inflation forecast should not be perceived as a commitment on behalf of the CBT. 4. Risks  Distinguished Members of the Press, In the last part of my presentation, I would like to talk about the risks with respect to the inflation outlook in the upcoming period and provide some information pertaining to the probable monetary policy strategy should these risks materialize. The outlook for the domestic economy and the risks thereto has been largely shaped by global developments in line with the intensification of the global crisis as of the last quarter of 2008.

We have limited experience to indicate how the interest rate at the current low level will affect output and prices over time. If growth in household demand proves to be stronger than expected, the interest rate may be raised to a higher level and more rapidly than currently envisaged. BIS Review 139/2009  11  Fiscal policy is expansionary this year, and according to the National Budget for 2010, fiscal policy will provide further, albeit milder expansionary impulses to the economy next year. Under the fiscal rule, the government budget deficit should be reduced to about 4 per cent of the capital in the Government Pension Fund – Global when activity in the economy has resumed a normal level. Norges Bank’s projections are based on the technical assumption that the structural, non-oil budget deficit in 2011 and 2012 will remain unchanged from the level in 2010. If growth in the Government Pension Fund – Global is lower than in previous years, the deficit will still be more than 4 per cent of the Fund’s capital, even after capacity utilisation has risen to a normal level. If economic developments are broadly in line with projections, fiscal policy conducted in accordance with the fiscal rule could result in a lower interest rate and a weaker krone than projected. Unemployment is high in many countries. Unemployment in Norway has not risen as sharply as previously projected. The number of registered unemployed was 2.8 per cent of the labour force in October, unchanged from September.
During the period when the objective of monetary policy was a stable exchange rate against the euro, the difference between Norwegian and German long-term interest rates was about ½ percentage point less than it is today. The difference between Norwegian and Germany 10-year forward rates widened by about ½ percentage point after the introduction of the inflation target. This indicates that the market previously assumed that in the long term price inflation in Norway would be on a par with that in the euro area, i.e. around the ECB’s objective of less than 2 per cent rate of increase in prices. The members of Norges Bank’s Executive Board are collectively responsible for the Bank’s decisions. The Executive Board meets every three weeks. At every second meeting, the Executive Board discusses monetary policy in depth. Decisions regarding changes in the interest rate will normally be made at these monetary policy meetings. The Executive Board discusses the economic outlook at a separate meeting three weeks before the Inflation Report is presented. On the basis of preliminary projections for the report, the Executive Board assesses the outlook for inflation two years ahead and the uncertainty surrounding these projections. The following day, the Executive Board summarises its discussions and assesses the consequences for monetary policy for the next four months. This assessment constitutes an important internal reference when the Executive Board later makes a decision regarding the interest rate. It will also provide the basis for our external communication through speeches and the media.

It is rather a time when we should be having some fun, watching both our ladies’ football teams from the Ndola and Lusaka offices battling it out on the battle field. Thereafter, it will be the turn of the gentlemen to break a sweat in friendly combat. We naturally expect that when the opportune moment is presented, commercial banks and other invited entities will also produce teams comprising ladies and gentlemen – after all the Central Bank of the Republic of Zambia will soon be showing you precisely how it is done. It is now my honour and privilege to officially launch the commencement of 50th anniversary celebrations of central banking in Zambia. Please enjoy yourselves. I THANK YOU. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Without those prerequisites, there is a significant risk that innovative and valuable datasets would be underutilized because their availability is not widely known, their reliability is inadequately evaluated and documented, and their use proves too costly, requiring large time investments by each user. In my view, effective data utilization therefore cannot be achieved without adequate recognition, funding, and support of a data steward role. Subject matter experts serving as data stewards have a number of important data management responsibilities. A primary one is the production of detailed documentation of the data sources and content. Such documentation is vital for preserving institutional memory, which can be lost when key personnel leave, and it needs to be updated regularly. This documentation also includes the creation of higher-level metadata that can help potential users determine the applicability of the dataset to their specific needs. Data stewards play an important role not only in documenting the provenance of the data but also  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  in evaluating the quality of the data, to determine whether it can be trusted for different purposes. The availability of rich documentation on data lineage and usage, combined with high-quality user support, will reduce learning costs for users, lighten the question-and-answer workload for data providers, and promote the efficient allocation of resources.

Survey of Consumer Expectations So a second important example of data innovation at the New York Fed is the Survey of Consumer Expectations, which we introduced to the public just last month. Consumer expectations of future economic outcomes are crucial inputs to the policy process, but we felt that our standard measures of these expectations were quite limited. The primary goal of this new national survey is to collect timely, rich, and high-quality information on consumer expectations about a wide range of household-level and aggregate economic and financial conditions. The survey covers expectations about inflation, price changes for specific goods, home price changes, future wage growth, future quits and layoffs, and residential mobility, as well as expectations of household income, spending, taxes, and credit access. The SCE has two advantages over existing surveys of expectations: It collects information about consumers’ expectations and decisions on a broader range of economic and financial topics, and it does so in a way that captures respondents’ beliefs more fully. The objective is to measure an individual’s beliefs about the likelihood of future outcomes, thereby capturing how certain or uncertain the person is about future events. In some cases, we do this by eliciting a “density forecast,” where respondents are asked to assign a percent chance to  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  different values (or intervals) for the outcome of interest.
The inflation target for monetary policy, the fact that the Riksbank now has statutory independence and the fact that we now have sound public finances, a budget ceiling and balance targets for fiscal policy – all of this has contributed to much greater stability in the economy than we had in the 1970s and 1980s. The current regulations mean that economic policy as a whole can never seriously clash with the monetary policy target in the way it actually sometimes did during the period with a fixed exchange rate regime. Both public authorities and banks also learned a lot about financial stability during the crisis in the 1990s. The Riksbank now has an organisation that continuously analyses the stability of the financial system and maintains a preparedness to act in a potential crisis situation. This gives us the opportunity to detect and counteract at any early stage any changes and vulnerabilities that could lead to a serious crisis. It also makes it easier to manage the problems if a crisis were to occur. The experiences of both the Riksbank and others have definitely given us better resilience to the current global financial crisis than we would otherwise have had. There are several reasons why we now have greater credibility and better conditions to do our job efficiently. One is most probably that openness and clarity have long been, and still are, of central importance.

Pål Longva: Report from Norges Bank Watch Remarks by Mr Pål Longva, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), on the Centre for Monetary Economics' (CME) assessment of the Norges Bank's conduct of monetary policy, published in its Norges Bank Watch Report Series, Oslo, 1 March 2023. ***  In February/March each year, the Centre for Monetary Economics (CME) presents a report commissioned by the Ministry of Finance on Norges Bank's activities. A committee of independent economists assesses Norges Bank's conduct of monetary policy. The reports are published by the CME in its Norges Bank Watch Report Series. First, I would like to thank this year's committee for an excellent report. Such an annual assessment is highly useful. I would also like to thank the Centre for Monetary Economics for hosting the event and for the opportunity to comment on the report. The committee supports the monetary policy decisions taken in the course of 2022. Our communication is described as open and clear. At the same time, they would like for us to be clearer in communicating our views on the fiscal policy stance. In Norway, there is a clear division of roles in economic policy. The people's elected representatives are responsible for fiscal policy. Norges Bank sets monetary policy in order to best fulfil the mandate the people's elected representatives have assigned to it. Norges Bank Watch notes that in certain situations, fiscal policy could be more effective than monetary policy in lowering inflation.
The policy rate hikes already implemented are being transmitted forcefully to the euro area financing and monetary conditions. However, the lags and strength of transmission to the real economy remain more uncertain. I would draw from this three policy conclusions: a. In the usual alleged time lag of one to two years for monetary transmission, our economic situation makes it likely that we are presently closer to the upper range. And hence the commitment I reaffirm today to bring inflation back towards 2% by 2025, is consistent with the full transmission of the monetary tightening that will have been put in place by summer 2023. Page 13 sur 14 b. Against this backdrop of significant transmission “in the pipe“ and still to come, a deceleration in the size of the policy steps (from 50bp to 25 bp) was wise and cautious. We obviously keep our hands free, but we add the capacity of observing and monitoring the pass-through of our substantial and exceptionally rapid past hikes. Persistence is now more important than speed; the duration for which we will maintain rates is now more important than the precise terminal level we will reach. Or in other words, for interest rates as with ballistics, “longer” is becoming more significant than “higher”. c. Hence, our next rate decisions should not monopolise attention; we already have completed most of our rate-hiking journey, and we are clearly in restrictive territory.

I will let Mr. Rajeev Peshawaria give you a bit more flavour about the book later. You will find it both practical and inspiring. We are also pleased to have with us today Datuk Seri Tony Fernandes, the Group CEO and Director of AirAsia Berhad who is also the founder of Tune Group Sdn. Bhd. He is a corporate leader and a personality that needs no further introduction. He will today share his leadership experience in our inaugural LEADING VOICES session. And now, ladies and gentlemen, I am very pleased to officially release “Too Many Bosses, too Few Leaders”. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Stefan Ingves: Financial crises in an international perspective Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority, Copenhagen, 12 September 2006. *  *  *  Thank you for inviting me here today. It is easy to forget what a financial crisis entails, now that a number of years have passed since we last experienced one and it is therefore important that we remind ourselves. Although we cannot yet see any immediate threats, we must look ahead to prevent potential crises. During my twenty minutes or so today I intend to talk about the following: •  the fact that most of the various crises in different countries during the 1980s and 1990s have had a number of common causes,  •  the fact that it is important to invest in preventing and managing crises,  •  the fact that risks and potential vulnerabilities in the financial system are now changing rapidly as the differences between banks and other financial institutions decline and crossborder integration intensifies,  •  the fact that the cooperation between authorities within and between countries must be developed further, both with regard to regular monitoring and crisis management. In particular, it is necessary to discuss how the responsibilities and costs should be divided up in the event of a crisis. Many of the experiences I describe refer to crises and countries outside of Scandinavia, even outside of Europe, which does not prevent them from being relevant to our discussion.

Managing a crisis also requires laws and regulations that enable a problem institution to be closed down quickly or managed in some other way. Sometimes it is necessary to take measures very quickly, perhaps even the same day. It is not possible to wait for the usual court process to be completed. To avoid this leading to any form of malpractice, the injured party should have the opportunity to obtain redress and damages afterwards. We had this kind of a law in Sweden during our financial crisis. Another question is when a court should be allowed to stop important authority decisions intended to deal with acute bank problems, such as closing a problem bank. When a bank needs to be closed, a difficult balance arises, between the owners' interests and the savers' interest, which are both safeguarded in law. One very current example of this dilemma in Sweden is the case of Custodia. Both the country administrative court and Finansinspektionen (the Swedish financial supervisory  2  BIS Review 83/2006  authority) have made their assessments on the basis of what they should take into account, that is to say the customers' interests and the company and owners' interests respectively. However, I feel that it is very unsatisfactory that we in Sweden do not have a clear legal framework that can manage this type of situation and I assume that these difficulties will quickly be repaired. Crisis prevention also includes creating sufficiently strong public authorities.