samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
When expectations were lowered, equity prices fell. The decline was amplified after the downturn in the global economy deepened as a result of terror and fears of war. Investors sought to avert the risk in the stock market. Demand for bonds increased, resulting in low long-term interest rates. Chart 3. A war economy? Index. January 2001=100 110  150  Swiss franc (left-hand scale)  105  125  100  95  100  Oil price (right-hand scale)  Gold reserves (right-hand scale) 11 September  75  Resolution 1441  90 2001  50 2002  2003  Source: EcoWin  In response to heightened uncertainty and fears of war, traditional safe havens for capital, such as the Swiss franc and gold, have become increasingly attractive. The Swiss franc appreciated after the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001 and towards the end of last year. Gold prices moved up sharply after UN Security Council Resolution 1441 was adopted on 8 November last year. Oil prices fell markedly after 11 September 2001, but have since risen. Fears of war in Iraq have increased the uncertainty surrounding global oil supplies. Strategic oil reserves have risen, while private reserves are low. This has exerted upward pressure on oil prices. The strike in Venezuela has also had an impact. Major economies such as the US, Germany and France are struggling with stagnation and fears of recession. Substantial tax relief and low interest rates are holding up activity in the US.

The central government invests this amount abroad through the Petroleum Fund. This results in capital outflows and a balance-of-payments surplus. The central government builds up assets, but also obligations through the social security system. Even if a large share of oil revenues is set aside, it would appear that, in the long term, the level of direct and indirect taxes will have to be at least maintained in order to honour these obligations. Petroleum revenues would normally have resulted in substantial currency inflows into Norway. If we had used this capital domestically, we would have had to convert this currency into NOK. The attendant increase in demand for kroner would have resulted in an even sharper appreciation of the krone exchange rate. The capital outflow through the Petroleum Fund contributes to curbing the appreciation of the krone. With oil and gas production now reaching its peak, Norway has - and must have - a substantial balance-of-payments surplus. The return on the Petroleum Fund will to some extent make up for the fall in petroleum revenues in the period ahead. In about 15 years, the return on the Fund may exceed the cash flow from petroleum activities. Norway’s position as international investor may then overshadow its position as an oil and gas producer. Swings in capital markets may have a greater impact on central government finances than oil price fluctuations. We are now in a phase where petroleum wealth is being invested at home and abroad. Norway is and has to be - an international investor.
Commentators sometimes attribute a perceived asymmetry to our current definition of price stability “below, but close to, 2%”. The Governing Council has frequently re-affirmed its commitment to symmetry – as it stands in our Introductory Statement since Mario Draghi. Nevertheless, we should examine whether the current formulation casts doubt on this. o medium term means that we should judge our inflation performance over a long enough period. We shouldn’t forget what Jean-Claude Trichet often stressed as an optimal performance in the first years of the euro. “Over these 12 years, the average annual inflation rate in the euro area has been 1.97%. We have achieved price stability in the euro area over what has already been quite a long horizon.”vi As I said in previous occasionsvii, our medium-term target needs to be viewed in two ways: it has to be forward looking to guide inflation expectations, but it cannot ignore the past either. Page 6 sur 10  All this is not explicit average inflation targeting ex ante, but would achieve very similar outcomes ex post. We will have to discuss that.  We will also have to discuss the precise formulation of our inflation objective, in at least two respects: the “below but close to” as already mentioned and the measure of inflation we use. Continuity is a positive asset but the inclusion of “owner-occupied housing” in the HICP is frequently, and somewhat rightly, suggested by the general public.

TLTRO’s and the tiering system we use today for refinancing the Eurozone banks are two good examples in this respect. On climate change, the emphasis put by Christine Lagardeix herself is welcome and totally warranted. In my view, the fight against global warming is already an imperative for us under our price stability mandate: not only will the effects of climate change have significant repercussions on future inflation and growth, but they are already having an impact now. We could implement our climate decisions in no more than 3 to 5 years, which would make us pioneers among major Central banks. Page 8 sur 10  4. How to improve communication with the general public? My final remarks concern communication. Central banks have come a long way in being transparent about their decisions and explaining their reasoning. However, our communication is too often addressed to a narrow group of people – the media, the markets and economists. We need to do a better job of reaching the general public. And this means two changes of paradigm:  it is not only a question of democratic accountability – however essential this remains –, it is also key for our economic efficiency. Better-informed firms and households will also make better decisions and ones more aligned with our strategy, I will come back to it.  Secondly, we should evolve from a narrow objective of “transparency” to a wider objective of “clarity”.
The strained financial situation in the public sector would seem to indicate weak employment growth for at least the coming year, while the economic upturn will probably only lead to a relatively small increase in employment in the private sector. There is, of course, a risk that the weak labour market will affect households' expectations and consumption propensity; a risk that we pointed out already in December and which may have been reinforced. The higher the rate of unemployment, the more caution households will probably show when purchasing and consuming. This could in turn lead to a risk of lower growth during 2004. All in all, the view of the demand situation in Sweden remains essentially the same as in December; demand will increase and approach the economy's long-term sustainable level. Lower domestic cost pressure The relationship between unit labour costs and inflation is usually fairly clear. Thus, when we made a downward revision to the figures for unit labour costs in December, it was not entirely insignificant for the inflation forecast. The background was primarily the signs we saw of an improvement in productivity growth, combined with a weaker labour market. I shall return to the subject of productivity in more detail in a moment. With regard to wage developments, the wage bargaining rounds are currently a central issue. Their outcome will have great significance for the rate of wage increase and thereby also to a large extent for inflation in coming years.

John Gieve: Economic prospects and the policy challenge Speech by Sir John Gieve, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, at the Cityco Breakfast Meeting, Manchester, 16 January 2009. *  *  *  Introduction One of the things that strikes me most on coming back to Manchester is the pace at which the fabric of the city changes – and I was looking at this yesterday from up on the 23rd floor. It’s not much more than two years since I was last here but in that time the city centre has added about half a million square feet of retail space, more than 1½ million sq ft of new office space and nearly 8000 extra hotel beds (a 40% increase). All this development reflects the attractiveness of Manchester as a location for inward investment and even more importantly the strong growth in businesses indigenous to the city, many of which are represented today. But while I gather that nearly a million square feet of office space has been let again in 2008 it is clear that in Manchester, as elsewhere, the past year has been increasingly challenging for businesses of all types and the prospect is forbidding. The severity and nature of the challenges we face particularly in the banking sector makes it very difficult to predict where we will be in a year from now. And the pace of change means that it is even more true today than usual that we cannot rely for navigation on official statistics alone.
Legal considerations and possible challenges A digital euro would raise legal, technological and policy questions that we need to address. 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Let me start with the legal basis. Today, only euro banknotes and coins are legal tender under EU primary law. This means they can be used to pay anywhere in the euro area.12 Therefore, a key issue discussed in the report is the importance for a digital euro to have legal tender status. Indeed, central bank money is a public good. Euro banknotes fulfil the core function of providing people with risk-free central bank money. It is crucial to ensure that, as a form of public money, a digital euro enjoys universal reach and acceptance, as the legal tender status provides. The introduction of a digital euro also raises technical challenges. Some are related to information technology and cyber risks, which will need to be managed effectively. Others are related to design choices. In this respect, we can leverage the experience gained in past projects that have put us at the frontier of payments.13 Finally, the design of a digital euro would have to be consistent with key policy objectives. In particular, its design should address the possibility that investors could rapidly move significant amounts of bank deposits into a digital euro, with potential adverse effects on the banking sector and financial stability. We are exploring design strategies to address this and other challenges, and we will assess them in depth.

The GIC is a Philadelphia-based nonprofit think tank with the mission to "encourage the expansion of global dialogue and free trade in order to improve cooperation and understanding among nation states, with the goal of reducing international conflicts and improving worldwide living standards." This is indeed a noble goal in today's changing world full of new challenges and, unfortunately too often also conflict. Eesti Pank is honored to have been included in the GIC list of cooperating institutions for a number of years already. Our people have participated in GIC events both as speakers and members of the GIC delegation. We have first-hand experience in how dedicated the GIC is in fostering the cause of free markets, cooperation and liberty. BIS Review 104/2008  1  Ladies and gentlemen, thank you once again for coming here today. I am now most pleased to invite David to say a few words of welcome on the behalf of the GIC. 2  BIS Review 104/2008
2  BIS Review 21/2006  Perhaps the foremost advantage of having a fixed exchange rate regime as a means of keeping inflation under control is that it makes the task of monetary policy simple and straightforward: it shall set the key rate in a way that enables the exchange rate relationship to be maintained. This task is also easy for the general public to understand. At the same time, it may be a disadvantage that monetary policy is tied to this single task. It cannot then be used to subdue domestic disruptions that have no equivalent in the country to which the currency is tied – the anchor country. At the same time, disruptions in the anchor country will immediately affect the targeting country as interest rate adjustments in the anchor country will lead to corresponding interest rate adjustments in the targeting country. If, for instance, the interest rate in the anchor country is raised because demand in that country is increasing, the interest rate in the targeting country must also be increased in order to maintain the exchange rate relationship, even if the country is in a recession. A fixed exchange rate regime thus means that it is not possible to conduct an independent monetary policy. The task of keeping the economy in balance and of steering inflation more directly cannot thus rest with the central bank. A fixed exchange rate relationship can also be exposed to speculative attacks if it is not entirely credible.

Three short-term concrete measures Now, I would like to share three initiatives that the Banque de France is striving to encourage: 1) Promoting a homogeneous approach to conducting penetration tests among various players in the financial sector. From this perspective, the TIBER-EU framework that the ECB provided earlier this year is a tool that would be helpful to implement in order to test the resilience of the financial system and especially the capacity of cross-border companies. In this respect, TIBER-EU will have to be rolled out at the national level, especially for testing market infrastructures, while taking into account specific local aspects and respecting core requirements in terms of responsibilities, risk management and the conduct of the tests. Through “coordinated frameworks” it will therefore be possible to achieve the much-needed harmonisation of practices and a mutual recognition of tests across the European Union. 2) Carrying out simulation exercises in the particular context of extreme but plausible cyber-attack scenarios, possibly including cross-border exercises. Against the backdrop of the rising number of cyber-attacks in the financial sector, there is a need to supplement on-site and off-site supervision, beyond merely conducting response exercises at domestic level, and possibly even across many countries at the same time. The G-7 has given priority to the enhancement of cross-border coordination in the event of a significant cyber incident: the Banque de France chairs the sub-group in charge of preparing and performing this exercise in 2019.
Additionally, the globalization of financial markets led to difficulties in auditing cross-border transactions mainly due to lack of cooperation between supervisory authorities. However, in recent years, care has been given to overcome inter-country problems and increase cooperation. Success of countries in integrating into the global financial system and in fulfilling the requirements of globalization will depend on deeper international cooperation between national and international agencies. At present, there exist several countries and nations that are not yet benefiting from the globalization. Many obstacles stand in their way towards integration into the global economy. In an increasingly globalized world economy, financial sector stability is most likely to be achieved when prudent international standards are met and when markets operate competitively, professionally and transparently, according to sound principles and practices. Strengthening the supervisory and regulatory framework towards achieving a sound and efficient global banking system should be a universal goal. In this sense, the works that have been  5  BIS Review 79/2000  accomplished by the Basel Committee, FSI, Financial Forum, etc so far should be regarded as innovative and constructive in the process of harmonization of rules and standards internationally. In my opinion, effective supervision combined with a multi-dimensional study of past experiences and all the micro and macro level indicators, will help us to find ways to handle what globalization brings us. I certainly believe that studies on platforms like the one we have here will help us to develop new ideas and ways for responding promptly and correctly to the challenges of globalization.

There is a quiet revolution underway in the UK’s macro-economic policy framework. Conclusions On its 20th birthday, it is clear that the Commercial Property Forum has never been more important. The boom-bust cycle in the sector is simply too damaging to be left to free-wheel. It is high time to develop some properly functioning gears and brakes. That is now being done, as a shared effort between the industry and the authorities – in Pen’s words, “to bring all sides of the industry together”. If this is successful, the Forum could not ask for a better birthday present. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 1 Long-run UK commercial property capital values(a)  Sources: Scott (1996), Investment Property Database and Bank calculations. (a)  The vertical dotted lines indicate the discernable booms and busts. The attached labels indicate peak years. Chart 2 UK commercial property debt and valuations  Sources: Association of British Insurers, Bank of England, Investment Property Databank, ONS and Bank calculations. (a)  Based on end-year data  (b)  End-year stock of outstanding lending  (c)  in 2010, 2011 and 2012 this includes an adjustment to include CRE loans transferred to the Irish National Asset Management Agency  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
Derivatives, structured products, and so on are now centre stage in all  BIS Review 49/2003  1  areas of financial intermediation. We need to understand their implications and the threats they may pose as well as the benefits they can bring and we have accordingly increased our emphasis on market intelligence in this area. We also have to monitor the systems which underpin the functioning of markets, notably payment, clearing and settlement systems. CHAPS and BACS may be unknown acronyms to you. But they are the essential plumbing in handling UK cash payments. Without these systems the financial machinery as a whole could not operate. If any of them failed to perform this could rapidly lead to a liquidity crunch. So we need to understand how they operate; how robust they are; how good their risk management processes are; and how effective their corporate governance is. The Bank has a specific oversight responsibility for UK payment systems. And beyond the payment and settlement systems we need to understand the financial infrastructure more generally. I don’t just mean physical infrastructure such as stock exchanges and other trading platforms. I mean also the plethora of prudential, accounting and legal standards and conventions, such as the prudential capital rules as per the Basel II agenda; International Accounting Standards due to be implemented in Europe in 2005; standards of good audit practice. I could go on. We need to consider whether people have confidence in the standards themselves, and are they fit for their purpose?

Mohd Razif bin Abd Kadir: Unlocking opportunities Opening address by Mr Mohd Razif bin Abd Kadir, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the 10th ASEAN Insurance Regulators Meeting and 33rd ASEAN Insurance Council Meeting, Kuala Lumpur, 15 November 2007. *  *  *  It is my great pleasure to be here today at the 10th ASEAN Insurance Regulators meeting and the 33rd ASEAN Insurance Council Meeting in Kuala Lumpur. Let me first extend a warm welcome and "Selamat Datang" to all the delegates from abroad as well as to fellow Malaysians here today. During this “˜Visit Malaysia Year” which is also the year of Malaysia's 50th Anniversary celebrations of our independence, I do hope that our foreign delegates will make time to enjoy Malaysia's diverse culture and the many unique sights, sounds and flavours. I am indeed honoured to be officiating the opening of the 10th ASEAN Insurance Regulators Meeting and the 33rd ASEAN Insurance Council Meeting. I understand that several fruitful meetings and exchange of ideas have already taken place yesterday, and several meetings have been outlined over the next two days to discuss various matters, revolving around the theme towards moving the ASEAN insurance industry forward. The ASEAN region has recorded significant growth with member countries growing at an average rate of 6% in 2006. ASEAN countries have grown stronger and our trade and cooperation have expanded further.
In the Swedish banking crisis, the public interest was secured by special crisis legislation So, how do we fare in this respect? Well, let us take a look at some real crises. I will start with the case with which I am most familiar, the Swedish financial crisis in the early 1990s. I got involved in the management of the crisis in my capacity as an official at the Ministry of Finance. At the time, the country had severe macroeconomic and financial problems, with a number of banks reporting losses. Moreover, the banks were finding it increasingly difficult to obtain financing in the international capital markets, a source of funding they were heavily dependent on. The international counterparties reduced their exposures not only to those banks that were having fundamental problems, but to Swedish banks in general. In order to avoid a collapse of the banking system, it was necessary to take action. We tried several measures to contain the “silent run” on the banks. What proved effective was the declaration by the government that the banks would meet their debt obligations as they fell due. This general guarantee, as it has been called, did not take the form of a legally binding guarantee, but was merely a political commitment that the creditors would not suffer losses. At the same time it was necessary to deal with the banks in distress. And it was quite obvious that we could not do this within the normal court-based insolvency procedure.

Tourists have a habit of taking back home unused currency – both notes and coins. This represents a leakage from circulation and needs to be replaced. We don’t have good data on this. But take for example, Singapore. Last year, we received almost 12 million visitors. If everyone took 8 coins back with them, close to 100 million coins would have leaked out of the country. And it will cost MAS about $ million to replace them. That’s why we have been working with the Singapore Mint, Changi Airport Group, and charity organisations to increase the availability of boxes in various parts of Changi Airport, for tourists to donate their excess notes and coins before they leave the country. Physical cash commands a premium during times of uncertainty. We saw this during the 2008 global financial crisis. Within the first month of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there was an exceptionally large withdrawal of high denomination notes by banks in Singapore. Typically, 90 per cent or more of the high-denomination notes withdrawn from banks are redeposited within the month. During the initial months of the 2008 crisis, only 70 per cent of the $ $ and $ notes withdrawn were returned. This phenomenon is insightful. The safety and soundness of banks in Singapore was never in question, and the impact of the crisis on Singapore’s financial system was minimal. But there was a discernible effect on consumer behaviour – people preferred to keep more cash in a climate of heightened uncertainty. The bottom line?