samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
CGFS (2019), “Unconventional monetary policy tools: a cross-country analysis”, CGFS papers no. 63, Committee on the Global Financial System. Cœuré, B. (2018), “Monetary Policy and Climate Change”, speech at the conference “Scaling up Green Finance: The Role of Central Banks”, Berlin, 8 November 2018. Cœuré, B. (2019), “Inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy”, Speech, SAFE Policy Center, Frankfurt am Main, 11 July 2019 Danmarks National Bank (2019) “Climate change can have a spillover effect on financial stability”, Analysis Danmarks Nationalbank, 2 December 2019 – no. 26. Debelle, G. (2019), “Climate Change and the Economy”, speech, Public Forum hosted by the Centre for Policy Development, Sydney, 12 March 2019. Elderson, F. (2019), “Opening remarks by Frank Elderson at the NGFS Conference”, speech, Paris, 17 April 2019. Financial stability board (2017), “Recommendations of the Task Force on Climaterelated Financial Disclosures”, Final report, June 2017. Finansinspektionen (2020), “Increased transparency on carbon pricing can strengthen the financial system”, press release, 13 January 2020. Flodén, M. (2019), “Monetary policy in a changing world”, speech at Örebro University and Kommuninvest, 13 November 2019. Hassler J, P. Krusell, and C. Olovsson (2018), “The Consequences of Uncertainty: Climate Sensitivity and Economic Sensitivity to the Climate”, Annual Review of Economics, 10, pp. 189–205. Hassler J, P. Krusell, C. Olovsson, M. Reiter (2020), “On the effectiveness of climate policies”, Working paper, IIES Stockholm University. Honohan, P. (2019), “Should Monetary Policy Take Inequality and Climate Change into Account?”, Working Paper 19-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

In this spirit, once we have finished our presentation, we will be hearing the views of a panel of experts representing fintech, banking, infrastructure provision and the SNB. To run efficiently, an economy needs functioning payment systems Payment systems play an important part in enabling economies to function smoothly. Allow me to illustrate this point with a brief anecdote taken from a book entitled ‘Across Africa’ by British explorer Verney Lovett Cameron. Cameron crossed equatorial Africa in 1875, and was the first European to do so. At one stage on his travels, he needed some boats. He managed to  Page 2/9  find a boat owner, but the owner demanded to be paid in ivory, which Cameron did not have. However, word reached him that there was a person in the vicinity who sold ivory. There was just one hitch: this person would only accept cotton cloth as payment, which Cameron did not have either. Eventually, Cameron came across somebody who owned cotton cloth that he was happy to part with in exchange for wire. Mercifully, Cameron had brought some wire with him. So he gave this man the required quantity of wire, took the cotton cloth, used this to pay for the ivory, and – finally – bought the boats in exchange for said ivory. 1 This story brings home just how high the transaction costs of an exchange can be. If Cameron had not needed the boats so urgently, the transaction would presumably never have come to pass.
To that end, investments in human capital aimed at improving the quality of the labor force in our country should be intensified and competition should be enhanced through effective regulations and implementations, especially in the goods market. The Competition Authority is one of the main institutional building blocks of the “open economy growth model” implemented in the period after 1980 and is based on strengthening the market economy. Competition policies and price stability, which is the core objective of the Central Bank, are strongly related. In an environment where competition conditions are ensured, monopolistic market behaviors will not be possible. Simplifying the entry and exit of firms to the various  BIS Review 37/2008  1  sectors and increasing transparency are the main factors preventing pricing habits that are based on a high profit margin. Additionally, due to pressures from both domestic and foreign competition, firms choose to implement strategies with the aim of increasing productivity, which in turn triggers innovation and technological development and contributes to the acceleration of the potential growth rate of our country. If firms increase profitability through measures that decrease costs instead of increasing prices, our country can reach higher growth rates in an environment of low inflation. Various instruments can be utilized to establish an effective competition environment in an economy.

Naturally, the Turkish Competition Authority and the Central Bank are among these public institutions. Strong relations among public institutions including the last two are critical for the Central Bank to reach price stability and for Turkey to attain a higher level of prosperity. Before ending my speech, I would like to reiterate my belief that the Turkish Competition Authority will further contribute to the level of prosperity in Turkey in the upcoming years. I would like to thank everyone who had a hand in the organization of this conference and for your attention. BIS Review 37/2008  3
Nevertheless, although the positive signs of a recovery that we could already see in July have strengthened, there is still uncertainty about future developments. In the USA, which is suffering its most prolonged recession since the 1940s, there are signs of a light at the end of the tunnel. The housing market has improved and the statistics indicate that the fall in house prices has come to a halt (see Figure 4). After four quarters of falling GDP, growth in the third quarter is now expected to be positive (see Figure 5). The labour market is continuing to weaken, however, and unemployment has reached almost 10 per cent, which is an unusually high figure for the USA. Development in the euro area has been somewhat better than our assessment in early July. It appears that the fall in GDP has come to a halt. Several of the major economies have even reported positive GDP growth. However, the situation on the labour market has deteriorated further. Unemployment is almost at the same level as in the USA. The fall in Sweden's GDP is slowing down Development in a small open economy like Sweden is highly dependent on the development of economic activity abroad and Sweden has also been hit hard by the severe international downturn. GDP has fallen for five quarters in a row. However, since the beginning of the second quarter of this year this fall has slowed down and GDP even increased somewhat between the first and second quarters (see Figure 6).

This is the right time to be discussing this topic, as we are experiencing the aftermath of one of the largest macroeconomic disruptions of the century. In the last three years, we lived through one of the most challenging times for policymakers, where governments and central banks were pushed to deploy everything at their hands to content the health and economic consequences of the pandemic, and lately to contain inflationary pressures. During these years we have learned that the effects of the Pandemic differed significantly between economies but also within households and firms of heterogeneous characteristics. The different exposure that households and firms have to credit conditions, supply chains, and final demand, affected their reaction to the original shock and also to the different policies. Firm size and household income distribution were important sources of heterogeneity to consider as well. Having widespread access to information regarding these dimensions was critical to develop sound policies. In response to these very challenging times, academia also reacted. Since early 2020, we witnessed an explosion of applied research that incorporated the lessons learned in the last 35 years in terms of the importance of considering firm and household heterogeneity to better understand the transmission mechanisms of fiscal and monetary policies. 1/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  This process of knowledge spillover from academia to policymaking is not something new.
Luis M Linde: The Spanish banking system – situation and challenges Speech by Mr Luis M Linde, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the University of Almeria, Almeria, 18 July 2016. *  *  *  Let me first thank the Universidad de Almería and all the sponsors for their invitation to participate in the inauguration of this three-day conference on cooperative banks. In my address I shall first briefly review the current situation of the Spanish banking system, including the cooperative sector, and the main challenges it faces. Secondly, I shall tackle some of the current regulatory developments in the banking sector, with a reference to the European regulation on bank recovery and resolution. Situation of and main challenges to the Spanish banking sector During the first half of 2016 global financial markets were markedly volatile, as a result of various factors. Firstly, forecasts of global economic growth have been revised downwards since the last quarter of 2015; secondly, the weakness shown by the emerging economies, particularly those most dependent on commodities exports; and, thirdly, the unstable social and political setting, compounded by the decision by UK citizens on 23 June to back the exit from the European Union. These factors have prompted a correction in asset prices on different markets which, though it eased from mid-February, has regained momentum since 23 June as a result of the increase in uncertainty and greater volatility.

4  BIS Review 70/2001  The Bank of Thailand has announced new rules for the Internet banking – simply what can be done over the counter, will be allowed over the Internet. This should facilitate development of financial products in this area. ·  And for the alternate forms of financial intermediaries, capital market, bond market, and equity market will play a greater role in the future. They will help increase the efficiency of our banks’ operations by providing new instruments to help manage, mitigate and repackage risks. ·  The second agenda of the financial sector reform is enhancing our risk management capacity, particularly of the Thai regulatory bodies and financial institutions. On this front, our Supervision Group have moved from regulation and transaction-testing toward riskbased supervision early this year. ·  From our preliminary assessment, these changes have fostered corresponding and encouraging changes in the Thai financial institutions. Several have hired foreign consultants to transfer the know-how and adopted the best international practices on risk management, while many have imported several standard off-the-shelves risk management software to help improve their current practices. Of course, there remain several impediments to change; these include scarce and expensive human resource in this particular field, and it is even more difficult to re-engineer the business process to ensure that such resources are employed productively. ·  The New Accord is a major challenge and milestone in this area.
In addition, downside risks seem to have decreased for the advanced economies, and increased for emerging ones. Secondly, the prices of industrial metals (i.e. copper, iron and others) have dropped. News of a slowdown in China and the bond defaults by some Chinese companies are cause for increased concern among investors, pulling prices down. And after several years of very high metal prices and a strong increase in mining investment, the supply has begun to react and new projects are now starting production. Metal prices are approaching their long-term costs, and the global impulse of mining investment has declined compared to the levels observed in the previous years. This is very important for Chile as copper is our main export. The prices of other commodities, including energy, should also face similar trends as new supply sources are developed. A third point is that financial conditions facing emerging economies have tightened. After many years of abundant external liquidity, capital inflows to emerging economies, and especially to Latin America, have become scarcer in recent quarters. The Federal Reserve has begun to withdraw its massive monetary stimulus packages, and the focus has shifted to when and how fast will it begin raising the fed funds rate. Financial conditions began changing last May, when the talk about tampering of the asset purchasing program in the US began. Since then, the interest rate on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fluctuated within a range between 2.5% and 3%.

In Australia, for example, this adjustment had already begun at the end of 2012 with the postponement of investment projects in iron or coal. Peru and Chile saw their adjustments in the second half of 2013. On the financial side, the normalization of international financial conditions has resulted in greater market volatility in emerging economies, together with higher risk premiums and capital outflows, plus a depreciation of their currencies against the U.S. dollar. In Chile, unlike past episodes, the effects on domestic financial markets have been bounded. The long-term rates have fallen while the money market has operated smoothly, and the risk premium is close to or only marginally above its levels of a while back. The exchange rate has absorbed the shock to terms of trade and the tightening of international financial conditions. Actually, the depreciation of the Chilean peso is among the highest in emerging economies. From a year ago, the currency has depreciated around 17% against the U.S. dollar, and the real exchange rate (RER) did by about 15%. This depreciation of the currency, in any case, is a desired effect, since it means an adjustment of relative prices and thus contributes to rebalance the sources of growth across economic sectors. In fact this is consistent with the macroeconomic framework that Chile has in place. Short- and long-term interest rates have declined while the currency has depreciated. In this scenario, inflation in Chile has returned to near 3% and medium-term expectations are in line with the target.
I do not mean that in the trivial sense that we do not publish an intended path for rates, and so there is no promise to break. Rather, I do not believe that we have published  22  Bernanke, B. S., and F. S. Mishkin, 1997. ‘Inflation targeting: a new framework for monetary policy?’, Journal of Economic Perspectives vol. 11, no. 2; and King, M.A.K., 2004,’The institutions of monetary policy’, The Ely Lecture 2004, at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, San Francisco. 23  Woodford, M., 2003, ‘Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy’, Princeton University Press, Chapter 7; Dennis R.,‘Time-inconsistent monetary policies: recent research’, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, April 2003, number 2003-10; and Svensson, L.E.O. and M. Woodford, 2005, ‘Implementing optimal policy through inflation-forecast targeting’, in ‘The Inflation-Targeting Debate’ by Bernanke B. and Woodford, M. (eds. ), University of Chicago Press 2005. 24  Kyland, F. and E. Prescott, 1977, ‘Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans’, Journal of Political Economy, vol 85; Barro, R. and D. Gordon, 1983, ‘Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy’, Journal of Monetary Economics vol. 12; Fischer, S., 1994,‘Modern Central Banking’, in Capie F., C. Goodhart, S. Fischer and N. Schnadt (eds. ), ‘The Future of Central Banking, The Tercentenary Symposium of the Bank of England’. 25  For example Rogoff K., 1985, ‘The optimal degree of commitment to an intermediate monetary target’.

Putting these two features of the objective function together, the policymaker places some weight on the prospect of unusual volatility in inflation down the road. This is not just hypothetical. In 2002-03, some of us on the MPC voted to maintain an unchanged policy rate rather than cut partly on the grounds that, by stoking the embers under household debt and house prices, too great a risk would be taken with future output and, most important, inflation variability 28 . Speaking for myself, that was directed at avoiding policy settings that, on balance, could have increased uncertainty about demand conditions and inflation in the future, and complicated the operation of policy down the road, not on some spurious aspiration of steering asset prices along some (unknowable) equilibrium path. Maybe that would be one way, consistent with focussing on a single objective, to construe the thoughtprovoking papers that have come out of the Bank for International Settlements in recent years 29 . Certainly this is an area where policymakers still have lots to learn. 27  28  See Cecchetti, S., H. Genberg and S. Wadhwani, 2002, ‘Asset prices in a flexible inflation targeting framework, NBER Working Paper 8970.
A successful person is someone whose life is filled with purpose and joy, something that can be felt, shared and remembered not only by his family and loved ones but also by people around him. 9. Four decades ago, I was just like you: a young passenger, filled with hopes, curiosity and anxiety on what might lie ahead of me in this train journey. I have worked very hard in all these years. I have had a great ride and learned many things in this long and fascinating train journey, which by the way is still continuing. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  10. My fellow graduates, let me conclude by asking you this simple question: are you ready to embark on this fascinating train journey? If you are, hold on to your tickets and board the train, find yourself a good seat and fasten your seat belt. The train is about to depart now. Thank you very much. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

Due to domestic economic turmoil and financial crisis in the late 1980s and early 1990s, it took time before the idea of a fund was turned into actual savings. The first allocation – some USD 400 million – was not made until 1996. Since then, the Fund has grown rapidly in size. As you have already seen, the Fund’s assets are currently valued at around USD 350 billion. The Fund is expected to grow further in coming years, and may double in 5-10 years. The Fund was established as a tool to support prudent management of Norway’s petroleum wealth. One purpose is to shield the non-oil economy from price fluctuations. The Fund is also a long-term savings instrument. It will help to cope with future financial commitments linked to an ageing population. Accumulation of capital in the Fund reflects the depletion of a non-renewable resource, which is exchanged for financial assets through the Fund’s investments. By setting up the Fund, it became possible to establish a path for  2  BIS Review 58/2009  production of oil and gas that is independent of the profile for petroleum revenue spending. The alternative to a fund would have been to directly regulate production by putting a conservative upper limit on annual extraction. Furthermore, to effectively shield the non-oil economy, and to make sure that private sector investment decisions could be made independently of the public sector’s saving of petroleum wealth, the Fund is only invested abroad.
The effect of higher interest rates is to shift the distribution of companies’ interest cover ratios to the left, so that a number of them now lie below the solvency threshold. In the simulation, an extra 10% of companies go bankrupt. This would translate into an immediate loss of around 1½ million jobs – a very significant macro-economic cost. Nonetheless, there are also prospectively productivity benefits. The scale of these benefits depends on the productivity characteristics of those firms going bust and specifically on their levels of debt. As Chart 25 shows, there is a U-shaped relationship between firms’ productivity and debt, with both high-productivity (“gazelles”) and low-productivity (“zombie”) companies having high debt ratios. Higher interest rates hit both types of company and so the net effect on productivity is an empirical question. If we assume all firms have the same solvency threshold, more of the firms going bust are zombies than gazelles – there is more creative destruction than destructive destruction (Chart 24c). Nonetheless, the positive impact of higher interest rates on aggregate productivity is significantly tempered by the bankruptcy of some high-leverage, high-productivity companies. The overall effect of higher interest rates in the simulation is to boost the level of productivity by around 1 or 2% relative to the baseline. This is a significant productivity gain. At the same time, it does not account for the majority of the productivity shortfall since the crisis. Moreover, it comes at a hefty employment cost.

Some conclusions Now back to Lars Göran's question: Does globalisation have anything to do with the closing of the ATM? Yes and no. In a dynamic economy with rapid growth, the production of goods and services is constantly changing. There is cost cutting, restructuring, closures, innovations and new production starting up all the time. When an ATM gives rise to more costs than it brings in income, it is closed down and bank services have to be handled in a different way, sometimes at higher costs to the customers, but always at lower costs to the bank. These are the conditions in a market economy. Globalisation speeds up the process by increasing competitive pressure. The closing down of the ATM may occur sooner than it would have otherwise. But the tougher competitive pressure provides us with other services, e.g. we can sit at our desks at home and pay our bills via the Internet as well as making transfers between wages accounts and bank loans. And we can pay by card. The ATM becomes less important. Globalisation speeds up the process in the changes in production and consumption patterns in a competitive market economy. This probably cannot be avoided and if we are careful, it can be turned to our advantage, as has been demonstrated in recent years. And we Swedes have shown that we can quickly adopt technological innovations, such as computers, mobile phones and IT. Let me finish with a few reflections.