samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
To prevent these problems from getting out of hand, our country’s development should be undertaken in a way that does not place importance on GDP growth at the expense of all else, but aims to strike a balance between GDP growth and the preservation and conservation of natural resources and the environment. Rapid development should not be undertaken unless the environment and natural resources are able to sustain and support such development. The public needs to have greater interest in resource management, particularly water management, in order to allow sustainable use, alongside the growing needs from agriculture and industry. We need to restore nature and the natural balance of the environment, which can thrive in parallel with the growing economy, increased tourism demands, as well as improved living standards for all Thais in general. Hence, in order for economic development to continue in the right direction, development should not be measured solely by GDP growth, but by other development indicators as well. There has been increasing discussion on the concept of Green GDP, although this has not yet been put into practice. [In Bhutan, instead of adopting traditional GDP measures, the Bhutanese have adopted “Gross National Happiness”, or GNH as their development philosophy. In recognition that human happiness is a composite of both the material and non-material needs, GNH is meant to address this. GNH is a more comprehensive measure that incorporates economic development, environmental preservation, cultural promotion, and good governance.]

Radoslav Milenkov: Banking supervision priorities Publication of Mr Radoslav Milenkov, Deputy Governor (in charge of the Banking Supervision Department) of the Bulgarian National Bank, in the Quarterly Bulletin of the Association of Banks in Bulgaria, issue 57, April 2019. * * * A main priority of Banking Supervision is the participation in the process of effective accession to the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) within the three working blocks, on which work is done at the Bulgarian National Bank. The first one is the development of the required regulatory framework. Work in this area reached an advanced stage at the end of the last year with the adoption by the National Assembly of the necessary package of legislative amendments, allowing for the synchronisation of supervisory processes between the ECB and the BNB, including by expanding the macro-prudential supervision toolkit. A review and possibly an amendment of the applicable domestic regulatory framework – ordinances, guidelines – is pending with a view to achieving compliance with the ECB internal technical regulations and reflecting the ECB’s discretionally policy in key areas of prudential supervision and risk management. The second is to continue the process associated with the synchronization of the BNB’s supervisory and prudential practices with those of the European Central Bank, of the internal rules and processes and of the information flows between the two institutions.
I encourage any potential issuers to look at the 2  page on our website and speak to us at an early stage. More generally, jointly with FCA and consistent with our secondary competition objective, we recently launched a new insurer start-up unit as the sister of our new bank start-up unit, which has been around since 2016. It gives prospective UK insurers the information and support needed to apply for authorisation, covering the early stages of thinking about becoming an insurer, what you need to get an application started, the application process and life as a new insurer. Again, I point anyone interested to the pages on our 3  website, including our helpful new guide . We recognise that insurers can have very different business models and corporate forms. Our initiative is not just targeted at innovative Insurtech firms but equally at 2  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/prudential-regulation/authorisations/insurance-special-purpose-vehicles 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  prospective firms with more traditional business models. We see that many start-ups find it more efficient to operate as an agent and obtain capacity through an existing insurer or reinsurer, piggy backing on existing scale and diversification. But for those that do chose to be independent, our message is clear: our door is open and we welcome applications from new UK insurers.

Pricing, underwriting and reserving in wholesale general insurance and reinsurance markets  Our primary prudential concern about current market conditions is that pressure on pricing will lead to weakening of underwriting standards, under-reserving against risks and insurers being tempted to take short 4  cuts on capital. On underwriting and reserving, Anna Sweeney’s ‘Dear CEO’ letter , published a few months ago, set out nine areas where our supervisory review work had suggested weaknesses, including:   Formulating business plans based on loss ratio (and future reserving assumptions) which appear optimistic given current market conditions and historical performance. In particular, we have seen a number of examples of insurers expecting improvements in claims experience due to portfolios changes, leading them to exclude historical years of poor performance from reserving benchmarks without good supporting evidence.   Insufficient use of technical pricing models, even for lines of business where such models are generally considered to be more developed and reliable.   Slow reaction to emerging loss development, with insurers taking false comfort from reserving benchmarks which appear to show business as still profitable despite emerging underwriting results.   Diversifying into new lines of business (for example, casualty classes) despite insufficient underwriting expertise or oversight. Aggregate analysis for a sample of London Market insurers suggests that initial estimates of reserves were inadequate for more recent years of account, with insurers needing to strengthen reserves over the past couple of years.
The new substrate makes the notes more robust, and we expect them to have a longer life cycle; this, in turn, will have a positive effect on overall costs. Mass production of the notes, involving a new substrate, complex printing procedures and innovative security features, initially posed a few unexpected problems. This led to delays. The SNB had originally planned to issue the first denomination in autumn 2010, but it became clear that additional development work would be needed before the green light could be given for mass production. The issue date had to be postponed twice on account of these refinements. The decision to deploy a new substrate was a bold one – and turned out to be the right course of action, as it allowed us to incorporate unique security features. However, we were dependent on one supplier for the production of the Durasafe substrate, and this had consequences around two years ago. When the Durasafe manufacturer Landqart found itself facing a liquidity shortage in 2017, the SNB decided to take over the company in conjunction with Orell Füssli in order to safeguard banknote production using this unique substrate. Another key element of the new banknote series is the design. The core design elements on the notes were to be memorable and feel contemporary even years later. We wanted motifs that would not only be clear and vivid but would also have emotional appeal. Here too, we had to overcome some obstacles.

While the key motif ensures coherence within a given denomination, core design elements which appear in all denominations – a hand, a globe, a location and the security features – create continuity across all the notes and lend the series a sense of overall cohesion. The design thus sets new standards when it comes to combining security, functionality and aesthetics. Issuance successfully concluded Thanks to the close cooperation of all those involved, we were able to clear the numerous hurdles we encountered. We would like to take this opportunity to thank all of our partners sincerely for their contribution. Special thanks go to Manuela Pfrunder and her team for their designs. Their work has been consistently impressive – from the earliest drafts right through to the issuance of the final denomination. I would also like to thank our suppliers: Orell Füssli, Landqart, Sicpa and Kurz. Furthermore, allow me to thank our cash distribution partners, the banks and Swiss Post for their valuable cooperation and support in enabling a smooth issuance process. And finally, let me thank the many SNB staff who have managed this project so diligently over the years and have seen it through to a successful conclusion. In issuing modern and secure banknotes, the SNB is fulfilling its statutory task of ensuring the supply and distribution of cash in Switzerland.
Nominal annual dynamics of house prices in Bucharest and the rest of the country 15  percent  10 10  5 0  5 -5 -10  0  -15 -20  -5  Mar.12 Jun.12 Sep.12 Dec.12 Mar.13 Jun.13 Sep.13 Dec.13 Mar.14 Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14 Mar.15 Jun.15 Sep.15 Dec.15 Mar.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17  -10  RO CZ  PL BG  Source: Eurostat, NBR calculations  HU EC threshold  Mar.10 Jun.10 Sep.10 Dec.10 Mar.11 Jun.11 Sep.11 Dec.11 Mar.12 Jun.12 Sep.12 Dec.12 Mar.13 Jun.13 Sep.13 Dec.13 Mar.14 Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14 Mar.15 Jun.15 Sep.15 Dec.15 Mar.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17  -25  house prices – whole country house prices – Bucharest house prices – rest of the country Source: NIS 26  Figure 37. House price-to-income ratio no. of years  EUR/sqm  Figure 38.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Recent economic and financial developments in Switzerland Introductory remarks by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the end-of-year media news conference, Zurich, 11 December 2008. *  *  *  Our assessment of the economic and monetary situation has changed considerably since our last assessment of 18 September 2008. Already back then, we had emphasised that there were substantial risks attached to developments in the global economy, in financial markets and in energy prices. We had also stressed that our forecasts for economic activity and inflation in Switzerland involved considerable uncertainties. We had announced our intention to monitor developments closely, in order to react swiftly should the need arise. As you know, this eventuality did indeed materialise. This led us to relax monetary policy decisively as the uncertainties faded and the deterioration in the economic situation became more concrete. We first lowered the Libor target range on 8 October, by 25 basis points; then on 6 November, by 50 points; and a third time on 20 November, by 100 points. With the new cut announced today, the Libor target range now lies between 0% and 1%, reflecting a firmly expansionary monetary policy. Today’s press conference gives me the opportunity to explain in detail the rationale behind our actions. Since our assessment of 18 September, the situation has changed in three key areas.
The inflation forecast for the coming quarters is slightly higher than in March. This is because the departure point for the forecast has moved upwards, as inflation was somewhat higher in May than expected. However, from mid-2015 onwards, inflation will be lower than forecast in the previous quarter. The reason for this is that the global economic outlook has deteriorated slightly. Another factor is the unexpectedly weak inflation in the euro area. At 0.1%, the inflation forecast for the current year is 0.1 percentage points higher than in March. For 2015 and 2016, the new forecast – of 0.3% for 2015 and 0.9% for 2016 – is 0.1 percentage points lower, in each case, than at the previous monetary policy assessment. It is important to bear in mind that our forecast is conditional. It is based on the assumption that the three-month Libor remains at 0.0% over the next three years and the Swiss franc weakens over the forecast horizon. In our forecast, therefore, we assume that the SNB will pursue a very expansionary monetary policy. Even under such assumptions, there are still no signs of any inflation risks for Switzerland in the foreseeable future. Global economic outlook The SNB’s inflation forecast is embedded in a global economic scenario. I would therefore now like to give you our assessment of the global economy. The global recovery remains hesitant overall. Last quarter registered weaker growth than we had anticipated at our March monetary policy assessment.

All this generates a high level of uncertainty with regard to future developments in the global economy. Swiss economic outlook I will now look at economic developments in Switzerland. As expected, growth in Switzerland picked up somewhat in the first quarter, after having been relatively weak in the previous quarter. The rebound was mainly attributable to the upturn in business activity in manufacturing and the banking sector. On the demand side, exports of goods – which had still been declining in the previous quarter – and construction investment were the main growth drivers. Nevertheless, the capacity of the Swiss economy is still not fully utilised overall. Technical capacity utilisation in manufacturing remains considerably below its long-term average. Although employment was up in the first quarter, the unemployment rate remained unchanged. We expect the moderate recovery to continue in the coming quarters. For 2014, we anticipate that the growth rate will remain at around 2.0%. As we continue to see gradual improvement in the international environment, export demand is likely to rise. Over time, this should encourage corporate investment and stimulate demand for labour. The level of residential construction orders remains high. On the whole, however, we expect a considerable slowdown in the growth momentum of residential construction investment. In addition to global risks, the Swiss economy also faces uncertainty at home. In the past few weeks, the SNB’s delegates for regional economic relations asked companies to assess the impact of the popular initiative on curbing mass immigration on their business activity.
On the whole, the turnover in the retail trade appears to have increased prior to the changeover, which is connected with an increased use of cash during the same period. Many consumers have quite simply chosen to consume extra during the late autumn of 2001 to use up their national banknotes and coins. The rapidity of the changeover appears to have simplified it for the retailers, as the period of using two different currencies was relatively short. In Sweden, the retail trade is already represented in the SIFS group (Consultation and Information with the Financial Sector), which is led by the Riksbank and as the preparations for a cash changeover proceed, we will certainly have reason for closer contact. The rapid changeover to the euro has had the result that the need for transportation and storage of both euro and national currencies has increased and become more concentrated than estimated. It is above all the national currencies that have created storage problems for the retailers and banks, as return transport of these has had to wait until sufficient amounts of euro have been distributed in the market. Despite this type of problem, the speed with which the euro was introduced has meant that there have been calls in many countries to shorten the cash changeover period, which has lasted between one and two months.

This is partly because the after-effects of the financial bubble that burst appear to be more substantial and more protracted than previously assumed. It is expected that a number of countries will reduce their interest rates again, and that the level of interest rates in other countries will remain low for some time. In Norway, price inflation is lower than implied by the inflation target and will remain low in the period ahead. The krone has remained strong, partly due to the fall in international interest rates, weakening the impact of our interest rate reductions. Growth in the Norwegian economy is now likely to be weak. Although private consumption continues to show strong growth and oil investment is providing an impetus to the Norwegian business sector, labour market developments have been weaker than expected in our previous Inflation Report. Employment has fallen and unemployment is on the rise. House prices are falling and many commercial properties are vacant. It now appears that fiscal policy will have a more neutral impact on overall demand, and growth in public consumption and employment is no longer rising. Fiscal policy as drawn up in the Revised National Budget will therefore not contribute to locking in the strong krone. One encouraging development is that wage growth appears to have moderated more quickly than expected. This may partly be explained by the interim wage settlement this year, as in 1999.
It is as difficult to separate the institutions that support banking union from national fiscal arrangements as it is to separate the creditworthiness of banks and sovereigns. Let me explain. In recent years, doubts about the resilience of major financial institutions have created expectations of sovereign support. The scale of these potential liabilities can in turn generate doubts about public finances undermining the resilience of both banks and sovereigns. When such concerns emerge, the consequences can be dramatic. The banking systems of peripheral European countries experienced outflows of between 10% and 85% of total deposits from elsewhere in the euro area in the three years following June 2010 (chart 4). Bank funding spreads in those countries ballooned by 5 percentage points from the beginning of 2010 to the  18  Borders seem to matter. Trade between countries tends to be much more limited than trade within countries, as shown for Canada and the US by McCallum (1995). There is also evidence for a border effect for financial integration – there is more risk sharing through financial markets within countries than between countries (see e.g. Crucini 1999). Rose and van Wincoop (2001) assess to what extent national currencies are a barrier to trade, and find that trade barriers associated with national borders are halved when countries join a currency union. 19  Mundell (1973). Asdrubali et al (1996) estimate that for the US risk-sharing in private markets is quantitatively important in stabilising output at the state level.

In the UK the share of mortgage lending in Scotland has been essentially flat through the crisis period (chart 9), suggesting that there has been little if any divergence in credit conditions between the UK and Scotland. 21  This downward spiral of confidence can be most acute in countries with large banking sectors relative to their economies – Iceland, Ireland and Cyprus all had banking sectors exceeding 600% of GDP in 2007 (table 4). In the extreme, doubts about the sustainability of a nation’s membership of the currency union can only be relieved by massive external support. 22  In theory these could be pre-funded. For small countries with large, concentrated banking systems, pre-funded schemes are unlikely to be realistic in the short-term. Protected Scottish retail bank deposits are over 100% of GDP, compared to around 50% for the rest of the UK. New European rules mandate deposit guarantee funds to be built up only slowly over a decade and even then only to less than one per cent of insured deposits. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Fiscal arrangements While banking union requires common fiscal backing, there are two broader justifications for shared fiscal arrangements within a currency area.
This means providing credible assurance that the financial sector is in solid shape today and that the restructured financial system will be able to reliably supply credit across the business cycle – ensuring there is no 2008-style sudden sharp constriction in credit availability. For this reason, policies that increase financial stability, both ex ante by eliminating incentives for excessive risk-taking and making the system more robust to failure, and ex post, by ensuring the capacity to respond to a major shock, will help support growth today. The process of financial repair also matters greatly in terms of high debt households, since underwriting standards help define how much deleveraging must occur to regain access to credit. While we do not want a return to the easy credit standards of the bubble period, we also don’t what to overshoot in the opposite direction. Housing is another area where policy can support the recovery by helping to stabilize house prices and housing activity. Housing is the most important tangible asset for most American households, and housing debt the biggest liability. Obstacles to mortgage refinancing undermine the impact of monetary policy. Moreover, declines in house prices and the risk of future declines directly affect the degree of deleveraging that needs to take place among homeowners with high levels of debt, and the extent of precautionary saving by homeowners with low levels of debt. While home prices had to correct following the bubble, they no longer appear overvalued relative to historic multiples of cash flow, income and rents.

But before being discouraged by that, let’s reflect for a moment on what we already have achieved to date and some of the reasons why success is fully within our grasp. U.S. households have already undertaken considerable deleveraging. The U.S. financial system has made material progress toward better health. House prices are back at levels consistent with long-term affordability ratios. Banks have much more capital than they had on the eve of the financial crisis, the quality of that capital is much better and liquidity buffers are now much deeper. Credit availability is slowly improving. Though our challenges are large, we have come a good way already. And the policy challenges we face are not insurmountable. Even the long-term fiscal issues are not as intractable as some maintain; Social Security can be put on a sustainable trajectory with relatively moderate changes, and while Medicare and Medicaid are more complex, successful reform must be possible given that other industrialized economies spend a lot less on healthcare, often with better results across the population. Even with determined effort the road ahead will not be easy, and it will be several years before our economy once again operates at something close to its true potential and all who seek work have a good chance of finding employment. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  However, provided we secure the recovery, there is every reason to expect our nation will return in time to prosperity and solid growth.