samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The Maastricht Treaty, of course, recognised this risk, and the famous convergence criteria were designed precisely as a means of reducing the risk to manageable proportions by requiring that, before they join the euro club, countries should have achieved at least a minimum degree of macro-economic convergence - demonstrating their commitment to macro-economic BIS Review 29/1998  ˝  -3-  discipline through both fiscal consolidation and monetary policy directed at effective price, and exchange rate, stability. And there is no doubt that all European Union member states have made huge progress towards macro-economic stability over the past few years, which you will find documented in the two “convergence reports”. Although the EMI in particular emphasises the ongoing need in a number of countries to persist in determined fiscal consolidation, it is this progress towards nominal convergence that underlies the European Commission recommendation. The nagging doubt is whether this pursuit of macro-economic stability will in fact be maintained - whether the convergence that has certainly been achieved will, in the terms of the Treaty, prove to be sustainable. A particular worry is that macro-economic stability, on its own, has not been enough to prevent the emergence of very high, and very different, levels of unemployment in a number of the major Continental European economies. Unemployment has been for some considerable time, and it remains, much the most urgent and important economic issue confronting us in Europe.

There are a number of impediments: 1) Financial institutions – many of which still face balance sheet problems of their own – have tightened underwriting standards and, 2) a decline in property prices has cut collateral values and made the refinancing of many residential and commercial mortgages difficult. On the banking side, there is considerable differentiation across the industry in terms of health. The largest banks in the United States are generally in much improved health following the Supervisory Capital Assessment Process (SCAP) in 2008, which led to substantial additional equity raising. For smaller banks, the situation is more mixed. According to the FDIC, as of June 30, 2010, 829 of the nation’s 7,830 commercial banks and savings institutions remain on the FDIC’s problem institution list. But overall, the situation is one in which credit availability is slowly improving. According to the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officers Survey, the percentage of banks reporting that they were tightening credit standards across a wide range of lending categories peaked in  BIS Review 127/2010  3  late 2008. The most recent data indicate that virtually no banks are tightening standards, and a number of banks have begun to relax credit terms (Chart 12). In addition to households, the small-business sector is another area that has seen a contraction in credit.
The evolution of the IT sector is part of a wider process of sectoral shifts in the domestic economy, visible across several emerging markets: the services sector gaining ground to the detriment of agriculture and industry, whose roles have been diminishing. Likewise, industry has also shown structural shifts, i.e. the lower share of energy and labour-intensive sectors in favour of increasingly technology-intensive industries. With the risk of touching on a delicate topic these days, given the location of this conference, I have to mention that EU membership has played a major role in Romania’s development. And I am not saying that only because I was the head of the Government that started the EU accession talks back in 2000. Across the years, there were a lot of discussions with regard to Romania’s readiness for EU accession. Even Romano Prodi, the head of the European Commission at the time, warned me on several occasions that we were not ready for accession, not only from an economic and social point of view, but also in terms of people’s mentality, which was not fully aligned with European values after four decades of communism. I was well aware of that, but I also knew that it was imperative to have a target date, that would act as a catalyst for the much needed reforms. Indeed, much of the catching-up progress was obtained during the pre-accession years, as real GDP grew on average by more than 6 percent per year between 2000 and 2007.

Of course, that does not mean you are expected to build a new Romanian state as they did, but you can certainly act as a similar vector of change in the Romanian society, be it in social values, politics, economy or culture. Therefore, no pressure … Now, some of you must surely be wondering what a central banker like me and IT have in common. I could hardly be described as an IT expert, but I am following developments in the sector, not only because they matter in the global economy (explaining a good deal of the productivity wedge between the US and EU starting in the mid-nineties, for instance), but also because the IT&C sector is increasingly relevant for the Romanian economy – its share in GDP is now nearing that of construction and its contribution has become instrumental in building a surplus on the 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  international trade in services. Solid technical skills, good command of foreign languages and certain versatility are assets that continue to attract investment in this sector in Romania. Although infrastructure quality, in general, is not a strongpoint for Romania, communication infrastructure is – we are enjoying some of the best speed for broadband internet connection in the EU if not in the world, not to mention that access is comparatively much cheaper.
For many countries in SSA, FDI flows as well as commercial lines of credit have been an important source of finance for growth, particularly because of insufficient domestic savings and the shallowness of domestic capital markets. In Zambia, for example, over the past 5 years FDI flows have averaged over $ 900 million per annum, particularly in the mining, agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and tourism sectors. I believe this is an important part of the reason why Zambia’s real GDP growth in 2009 is estimated at 4.5%, well above the 1.5% forecast for SSA. As indicated earlier, FDI flows to Africa are projected to fall by 18% in 2009, relative to 2008 inflows of $ 30 million. In addition trade credits have been impaired as has the access of Government’s to the international capital markets. Efforts, for example, by several African countries to raise longterm financing in international markets through sovereign bond issues have either failed, been cancelled (for example the Ghana Telecom bond issue for $ 300 million) or have been delayed (for example the Eurobond issues for Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda). My fourth point is related to the actual, as well as imagined, failures of the market mechanism at the heart of the advanced economies, and the inevitable institutional reforms that need to be undertaken, as the relative boundaries of the public and private sector are reassessed.

In the intensely competitive environment you can’t afford to be left behind, but will, or can, everyone still make profits? I pose these as questions, but I’m afraid I don’t have any conclusive answers. Yet I suspect that we may continue to be pleasantly surprised by the fruits which this ongoing revolution can bear. While it is certainly clear that finance is by and large a hugely competitive business, we observe that many of the participant institutions are enormously successful and profitable. At the same time, however, those of us with responsibilities for regulation, whether for purposes of consumer protection or in order to ensure systemic stability, are surely justified in imposing capital and liquidity requirements designed BIS Review 15/2000  2  to make the institutions proof against the sort of setbacks which too intense competition may eventually bring to some. Of course, the scare story of impending diminishing returns and so on has been told many times before. What, if anything, is new, as we set off into the new millennium? I believe there are two new ingredients, both concerning the internet. They are access and speed. They are of course related. We can all now enjoy direct access to almost anyone and anything, anywhere, without having to go through intermediaries - other than electronic ones. We are all aware that a degree of caution is required here.
This builds up a knowledge profile of the area, and enables underwriting and pricing of risks. Insurers and governments are also able to detect droughts and floods, and their potential impact on harvests early, enabling a quicker response. And in the event of a disaster, the before and after images allow insurers to perform loss assessment and support quicker release of claims to the affected farmers. No need to send loss surveyors to inspect damages in-person, which can be costly and time consuming. Big data analytics is at the core of Singapore’s own Natural Catastrophe Data Analytics Exchange (Nat Cat DAX). Nat Cat DAX is led by ICRM, in partnership with MAS and the industry. It will aggregate a variety of data sources including economic loss and exposure data as well as drone and satellite data to create a comprehensive database of Asia Pacific natural catastrophe risk. The consortium has commenced industry data collection efforts in Taiwan and Jakarta, and is also using satellite imagery to extract information on building features. I understand a more detailed update of its preliminary findings will be shared later in this conference. Product innovation Second, product innovation. We are seeing new forms of insurance products and solutions, such as index-based and parametric insurance. Unlike traditional insurance which indemnifies actual losses, parametric insurance solutions make pay-outs based on catastrophe events hitting certain pre-defined parameters such as hurricane wind speed or earthquake magnitude. This removes the need for loss adjusters to survey the extent of losses.

Ravi Menon: Protecting Asia from natural catastrophes Opening address by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management Symposium, Singapore, 3 August 2017. * * * Professor Bertil Andersson, President of Nanyang Technological University, Professor Pan Tso-Chien, Executive Director, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. I am happy to join you at the 8th ICRM Symposium. A widening protection gap Asia has a serious problem. The frequency and severity of natural catastrophes hitting the region is increasing. According to UN data, the number of natural disasters in the Asia Pacific has increased from an annual average of 44 disasters in the 1970s to 146 in the 2000s. We don’t need much reminder of the tragic natural disasters that the people in Asia have suffered in recent years. the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004; the Tohoku Earthquake in 2011; the Thailand Floods also in 2011; and Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. As Asia continues to grow rapidly, more lives, wealth and assets in Asia are correspondingly at risk from natural catastrophes. Growing urbanisation also means that wealth in Asia is increasingly concentrated in small, overpopulated megacities. There are 22 mega cities in Asia, each with more than 10 million inhabitants and hosting important commercial, manufacturing, and logistics hubs. Many of these cities are located in the Philippines, China, Japan, India, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, which are highly exposed to natural perils.
For additional discussion, see “Domestic Open Market Operations During 2017,” a report prepared by the Markets Group of the New York Fed for the FOMC. 13  4  the FOMC’s future policy stance are properly incorporated into the term structure of interest rates, and thereby appropriately affect financial conditions and the broader economy. To address the rise, the Federal Reserve made a technical adjustment to the IOR rate at the June FOMC meeting, raising it by 20 basis points while increasing the target range by 25 basis points. 14 The technical adjustment worked exactly as we expected. As you can see back in Figure 2, all rates paid on federal funds borrowings, as well as in other money markets, rose by about 20 basis points. This made it less likely that the effective federal funds rate would be above the top of the target range. Let’s spend a few minutes exploring what drivers might have been most significant in bringing about the rise in money market rates relative to IOR. 15 Leading into the technical adjustment, a shift in flows in the Treasury market had the effect of pushing both Treasury bill yields and repo rates higher in February and March. Figure 6 shows cumulative net Treasury bill issuance since the beginning of last year, as well as projections through the third quarter of this year as reported by a private-sector forecaster.

The spread of the Delta variant has so far not required lockdown measures to be reimposed. But it could slow the recovery in global trade and the full reopening of the economy. Consumer spending is increasing, although consumers remain somewhat cautious in the light of the pandemic developments. The labour market is also improving rapidly, which holds out the prospect of higher incomes and greater spending. Unemployment is declining and the number of people in job retention schemes has fallen by about 28 million from the peak last year. The 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  recovery in domestic and global demand is further boosting optimism among firms, which is supporting business investment. At the same time, there remains some way to go before the damage to the economy caused by the pandemic is overcome. There are still more than two million fewer people employed than before the pandemic, especially among the younger and lower skilled. The number of workers in job retention schemes also remains substantial. To support the recovery, ambitious, targeted and coordinated fiscal policy should continue to complement monetary policy. In particular, the Next Generation EU programme will help ensure a stronger and uniform recovery across euro area countries. It will also accelerate the green and digital transitions, support structural reforms and lift long-term growth. We expect the economy to rebound firmly over the medium term. Our new staff projections foresee annual real GDP growth at 5.0 per cent in 2021, 4.6 per cent in 2022 and 2.1 per cent in 2023.
But I want to flag some reasons for caution in how to interpret our published inflation forecasts as guides to the validity of the interest rate profiles on which they are conditioned. Interpreting scenarios The sensitivity of the MPC projections to the conditioning assumptions is currently very high. And the uncertainties surrounding those assumptions are significant. For example, the outlook for international commodity prices remains very uncertain. In recent forecasts, the MPC has attempted to illustrate the sensitivity of the forecast to the commodity price assumptions by publishing alternative scenarios based on the path of prices implied by futures curves. This practice was maintained in the May report. As the drivers of commodity prices shift from the epidemiological to the geopolitical, they are unlikely to prove easier to forecast. It is all too easy to envisage outturns – such as the introduction of an oil or gas embargo if the conflict in Ukraine were to persist or widen – that would imply commodity prices quite different from those embodied in the MPC forecast, with very different  Page 13  implications for the economy, for the inflation outlook and ultimately for monetary policy. As members of the MPC have emphasised many times in the past, the outlook for monetary policy therefore cannot be read simply from the MPC’s published forecast. Rather it is conditional on how events evolve. [12] That conditionality is ever present. But in current circumstances it is further complicated by the importance of the joint interaction among the assumptions underpinning the MPC forecast.

Miguel Fernández Ordóñez: Presentation of the 2011 Annual Report Address by Mr Miguel Fernández Ordóñez, Governor of the Bank of Spain, to the Governing Council of the Bank of Spain on the presentation of the 2011 Annual Report, Madrid, 8 June 2012. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, The presentation of the Annual Report for 2011 is taking place in an extremely difficult setting for Europe in general, and for Spain in particular, marked by the acute euro area sovereign debt crisis and the double-dip recession in the Spanish economy. The year 2011 was characterised by the worsening of the euro area sovereign debt crisis. Initially affecting a small number of countries in a situation of relative vulnerability, it spread to others with sounder economic fundamentals, duly turning systemic. The fresh downturn in the euro zone not only detracted from the area’s recovery but was also one of the main determinants of the halt in the ongoing pick-up in world growth begun a year earlier. Two main factors lay behind the crisis. First, the insufficient adaptation of domestic economic policies to the demands of monetary union membership, which translated into a build-up of major imbalances that placed some economies in a position of vulnerability. And second, the lack of political consensus at the European level to tackle the weaknesses of the euro’s institutional design, which largely explains the spread of the tensions to countries whose misalignments were on a lesser scale.
Therein lies an important lesson I would like to share with colleagues and friends in the process of developing their bond markets. Industrialized countries have been in a position to promote and sustain the development of their bond markets because of the continuity and predictability of supply. In our case, due to restrictions on management and investment of the government’s treasury balance, the government understandably has been unwilling to issue securities when the treasury balance is high. This causes discontinuity in the supply of bonds. At the same time, because the treasury balance could not be invested to earn a return, there is a cost in terms of interest expense on those bonds issued against no revenue proceeds. Bond issuance has to be done on a regular basis, irrespective of the size of the treasury balance. But it may be difficult to explain politically why it should become necessary to maintain a higher-than-necessary treasury balance with borrowed money. Proposals are on the way to fine-tune the current legal framework, to permit greater flexibility in the management of treasury balance, while not compromising the discipline of budget finance. BIS Review 30/2000  2  Turning now to the secondary market. This is an area where a central bank can become more active and can make a more significant contribution than in the primary market. To date, substantial progress has been made with regard to the basic rules and regulations to govern both market participants and trading practices.

Conclusion Innovations in digital assets have the potential to impact financial markets in many fundamental ways; it is essential to understand these developments and the impact they may have on the mission of the Federal Reserve. Through ongoing investment in research, experimentation, and collaboration, leveraging the full potential of digital assets is possible. I look forward to building on the successes of Project Cedar and similar efforts. 1 The White House, Fact Sheet: White House Releases First-Ever Comprehensive  Framework for Responsible Development of Digital Assets, September 16, 2022 2 CNBC, "Terra backers vote to revive luna - but not UST - after $ billion crypto  collapse," May 25, 2022 3 Vice Chair Lael Brainard, "Crypto-Assets and Decentralized Finance through a  Financial Stability Lens," remarks at the Bank of England Conference, July 8, 2022 4 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, "Money and Payments: The U.S.  Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation," January 2022  4/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  5 Chicago Fed Letter, "Understanding the Demand for Currency at Home and Abroad,"  No.
In the particular case of micro and macro-prudential policies, as reiterated by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, banks should make use of the Basel III capital and liquidity buffers during this crisis to absorb financial shocks and to support the real economy by lending to creditworthy households and businesses. In this regard, supervisors will allow banks sufficient time to restore buffers, taking account of economic and market conditions as well as the circumstances of individual banks. And institutions’ dividend distribution and compensation policies should remain highly prudent until the current uncertainty abates and a solid economic recovery takes root. In parallel, it is necessary to ensure that the different flexibility measures applied do not lead to delayed recognition of actual quality impairment of credit exposures and provide institutions with the incentives necessary to maintain the appropriate standards. On the monetary policy front, the fragility and heterogeneity of the recovery in the euro area, projected medium-term inflation far below our objective and a nominal effective exchange rate that has, in recent months, offset a large part of the ECB stimulus measures lead us to conclude that there is no room for complacency. Significant monetary stimulus will have to be maintained until we achieve a solid recovery. Moreover, we cannot rule out the possibility  13  that the measures described above may have to be recalibrated, or new measures introduced, in order to fulfil our price stability mandate, understood always in a symmetrical manner.

Malaysia is also a leader in the development of sukuks and its pioneering efforts have seen the introduction of innovative structures such as the exchangeable sukuk musharakah, exchangeable sukuk as well as sukuk based on istisna' and ijarah. This is reinforced by the diversified tenures of the issues. Malaysia's strong financial links to the traditional and nontraditional markets such as in the Middle East also allows issuers to diversify their investor base. Malaysia therefore continues to remain an important destination for international financial flows that are traded on the New Silk Road. In concluding my remarks, I wish to congratulate all those involved in crystallizing the Electronic Trading Platform that is being launched today. This is a further step to create a more vibrant bond market. The growing role of the bond market in mobilizing and allocating funds not only in the domestic financial system but also across borders, to and from other parts of the world, has demonstrated the maturity of the Malaysian bond market. This has not only strengthened international financial inter-linkages but has increased the potential for greater economic integration and shared prosperity. 2  BIS Review 53/2008