samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I want to try to cast more light on the issues here. But, I would note that, in the history of monetary policy, regime changes have had to deal with the challenge of crafting communication that avoids creating more uncertainty. We have two, hierarchical, objectives: simply put, the resilience of the financial system, and the objective of encouraging growth (the counter-cyclical objective). These two can point in opposite directions, for instance in terms of banks’ ratios of capital to assets. The FPC has recommended that banks should strengthen their buffers of capital. What is meant by this? Let me tell you what we have concluded, and what we have not yet concluded. We are in a quite extended transitional phase, whereby the capital buffers of the banks are being increased to the Basel III levels. This process has around six years to run on the transition timetable. The FPC has recently said that it thinks banks should take steps to build up those buffers more rapidly than most firms have done recently under the Basel transition policy. (I say “most” because some firms have already made the transition.) But, we are not defining this objective as requiring banks to reach a level such as a 10% Core Tier One ratio in the next year or so on the new Basel III measure. Why not?

Philipp Hildebrand: The global financial crisis – analysis and outlook Summary of a speech by Mr Philipp Hildebrand, Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the NZZ-Podium, Zurich, 5 February 2009. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  We are currently experiencing the most severe and most complex financial crisis in several decades. It has affected many people around the globe, and finger-pointing and casting blame happen all too easily. Yet only a careful investigation of the responsibilities is likely to point to ways in which our financial system, and ultimately our economy, can be made more resilient once this crisis has been overcome. Financial markets react to incentives, and these incentives were misplaced in the past. It is in our power to start lobbying for clearly defined and risk-limiting conditions. If the responsible authorities wish to enact more stringent regulation, we ought to give them our unconditional support. The National Bank is determined to employ all the means at its disposal to ward off an economic contraction. BIS Review 12/2009  1
This is a collaboration among the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the ASEAN Bankers Association, and the MAS. AFIN is a platform that offers two functions: One, it is a marketplace where financial institutions in ASEAN seeking solutions to specific problems can connect with relevant FinTech firms across the region and beyond. Two, it is a sandbox where the financial institutions and FinTech firms can test potential solutions and achieve scale in a cost-efficient manner. Second, deepening the enterprise financing ecosystem. We want to make Singapore an Asian hub for enterprise financing, to support the next generation of Asian growth companies. We are enhancing the private markets infrastructure. Last year, MAS simplified the regulatory regime for venture capital managers, shortening the authorisation process from 16 to 4 weeks. We are working with the industry to establish private market platforms to enable Asian growth companies to connect with investors for capital and expertise. We are strengthening the public markets ecosystem. We are working with the industry to develop an information aggregation utility for SMEs to demonstrate credit worthiness in the pre-IPO phase. We are deepening the research ecosystem for both private and public markets. In the private markets, we are curating ASEAN venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) research with industry partners to raise awareness of investment opportunities in the region. In the public markets, we are funding research to support market liquidity in the post-IPO 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  phase.

And why, at least across these two periods, does neither measure of money growth seem to have much to do with inflation? What follows is not remotely a full and comprehensive answer to these questions. Nor are the points made here remotely novel. Over the years, reams have been written about all of them, including in some very good articles by Bank economists. But they’re certainly relevant in interpreting these data and therefore worth touching on. One I mentioned in the introduction: commercial banks can create and withdraw deposits – principally in the act of extending or reducing the quantity of their lending – independently of their reserve holdings at the central bank. Suppose you borrow £ from a bank. What the bank actually does, in granting the loan, is to put an extra £ into your deposit account. This is newly created (broad) money, matched, on the asset side of its balance sheet, by the debt you now owe the bank. This process doesn’t require any matching increase in reserves[9]. It has its limits, not least because banks are obliged to fund a proportion of their lending with equity (rather than deposits). They can’t (and don’t) expand or reduce the quantity of money  Page 17  indefinitely. And monetary policy, via its effects on the wider economic environment, will also influence these decisions.
But, the relative contribution of these factors is uncertain. Despite the uncertainty that exists about the sources and durability of this apparent moderation in some types of risks, financial market prices now reflect a very benign view of economic and credit fundamentals. Credit spreads generally and risk premia in many asset classes are at levels that are very low even in relation to previous periods of relative optimism. The U.S. financial system, when judged by many conventional measures, looks reasonably healthy as well. Bank profitability is at the highest levels we have seen, depending on which measure you choose, in two to three decades. Capital positions for U.S. banks, which have been around 13 percent of assets over the past two years, are very strong, significantly above the regulatory standards required to be considered well capitalized. Asset quality also remains robust. Nonperforming loan ratios are now only 1.2 percent across the commercial banking industry. The financial markets are pricing financial institution risk at very favorable levels, with bank equity prices, subordinated debt spreads, and credit default swap spreads suggesting a high degree of investor and counterparty confidence in the financial health of the major banks and other financial institutions. As these numbers suggest, the U.S. financial system came through the recent recession, the spate of corporate bankruptcies, the sharp adjustment in some asset prices, and the difficulties in some  BIS Review 18/2004  1  emerging market economies in reasonably strong financial shape.

Timothy F Geithner: Change and challenges facing the US financial system Remarks by Mr Timothy F Geithner, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, before the New York Bankers Association’s Annual Financial Services Forum, New York, 25 March 2004. *  *  *  It is a pleasure to join you at the New York Bankers Association Financial Services Forum. The institutions represented in this room, together with the rest of the New York financial community, remain at the center of the U.S. and global financial systems. Your meeting today takes place against the backdrop of a relatively favorable national and global economic outlook. The U.S. financial system is in reasonably strong shape. Financial innovation has enabled substantial improvements in the quality of risk management and in the capacity of the system to handle shocks. But the benefits of innovation have come with significant challenges to the people who run financial institutions and to those responsible for supervision and oversight. How effective we are in responding to these challenges will determine whether the U.S. financial system is as successful in the future as it has been in the past. The consensus forecast for the U.S. economy expects solid growth this year and next, somewhat above the upper bound of the range of most estimates of U.S. potential growth. Confidence in the sustainability of the U.S. expansion, as measured by changes in these forecasts, for example, seems to be increasing.
Since your organization establishes the business stance on broad issues of trade and investment policy as well as on vital technical or sectoral subjects including financial services, information technology, telecommunication, marketing, environment, transportation and etc., a vital role can be played in articulating the need for improving productivity. Do it now. This will be a major contribution that you make to our country. BIS Review 116/2008  5

The overnight rate has remained stable around the repo rate. However, as in many other countries, Swedish interbank rates have risen. On the interbank market for loans from tomorrow until the day after, the interest rate has been higher than normal, and movements have been more volatile. But higher and more volatile interbank rates do not automatically mean that the banks will experience problems. Swedish banks have had good opportunities to obtain financing during the entire financial crisis, solvency is good and loan losses are currently small. The fact that we have not seen any major problems in Sweden is of course linked to the fact that Swedish banks have not been exposed to any great extent to the US subprime market. Nor has there been any “distrust” of Swedish banks. Ultimately, it is a question of a broad view that Swedish banks do not have problems. The fact that the overnight rate has been stable around the repo rate may also be linked to the way in which our monetary policy steering system is constructed. An increased demand for deposits with the Riksbank would have been visible in that banks with surpluses would have put their money in their deposit accounts. The return on this is 75 basis points lower than the repo rate, and thus poorer than the overnight market. It would thus be expensive from day one. This differs from systems with an average minimum reserve requirement.
As explained in detail in the Annual Report, set against the significant slowdown in exports and the fall-off in capital investment, household consumption grew at a rate of close to 2% in 2002. This growth was underpinned by the increase in disposable income, contributing to which, in turn, were the interplay of net general government transfers to households and higher employment. Moreover, the rise in households’ property assets, to which I shall refer later, also helped sustain consumption, offsetting the losses in financial wealth brought about by the heavy stock market declines. House purchases, the other component of household spending, have grown over the past two years at a lower rate than that observed in the period to 2000. More recently, this spending component has been subject to opposite-moving influences: on one hand, house-price rises may have dampened the demand for habitual dwellings; but on the other, the fact that the return on residential investment has held far above that provided by other forms of investment (financial assets in particular) has encouraged house purchases. In any event, investment in housing has continued to sustain the increase in construction. And further contributing factors here have been the forceful investment in  4  BIS Review 31/2003  infrastructure, carried out both by general government and by non-financial corporations related to this sector. Although this consumption- and construction-led growth pattern has provided suitable support for progress in real convergence, some of the elements on which it is based are likely not to continue in the future.

There are also reasons for closer study of the potential threats to the stability of the financial system arising from such developments. Finansinspektionen and the Riksbank play important roles here. If the infrastructure is instead mainly owned and run by the users, the problems may not primarily concern pricing, but rather how the conditions for changing established structures are affected. Here I am thinking of the incentives for new developments and the possibilities for new participants to become established in the market. This is extremely important to avoid rigid structures in the financial markets. The conclusion is that it must be possible to adapt the rules and supervision governing the companies working in the financial infrastructure to the organisational form chosen by the companies. In a changing world, our task is to ensure we employ the best methods for carrying out our supervision and oversight work. The picture is further complicated by the fact that the authorities in different countries become involved when consolidation work crosses national boundaries. EU regulations Another important driving force for change is the new regulations being produced within the EU, arising from the Financial Services Action Plan of 1999. One of the purposes of these plans was to harmonise regulations for securities trading between the different European countries. The EU has decided to introduce what is known as the Lamfalussy Process to achieve the target of implementing all parts of the plan prior to 2005.
As I said, although in the medium-term immigration should have an expansionary effect on GDP and a limited one on inflation, it is unclear how the supply and demand channels will interact, and which one will dominate as the economy absorbs the population inflow. Second, on the activity side, it is possible for investment to be even more dynamic if larger-scale projects keep coming, but it can also happen that the greater external risks induce a more conservative behavior by entrepreneurs and consumers. Third, the expected evolution of inflation could also be affected if the pass-through of the peso depreciation returns to near average magnitudes earlier than expected and pushes up inflation of CPIEFE goods. Finally, we cannot rule out a faster depletion of the oneoff effects of sectoral supply shocks, particularly the heavier competition in some areas. V.  Final remarks  The global economic scenario poses important challenges to our country. For two years now, events have been unfolding that have added uncertainty to the global growth Outlook, such as the trade conflict between  7  the US and China or the Brexit resolution. Thus, we have seen several episodes in which global markets have been stressed, generating less favorable conditions for the emerging world. The most recent of these events is still underway, putting pressure on economies that are perceived to have weaker macroeconomic fundamentals. Chile, being a small economy, commercially and financially integrated in the world, has not been spared these tensions.

The navigation team at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory mistook this data as being in the required metric units of Newton-seconds. This led to errors in the spacecraft’s trajectory calculations. One of the root causes was NASA’s adoption of a ‘faster, better cheaper’ philosophy that had not given sufficient prominence to risk management. It had also not carried out an independent, end-to-end validation. Finally, developers had had an insufficient sense of ownership of the whole project as opposed to their bit of it. The second source of model risk is misuse of models. This can arise when management take decisions based on the outputs of a model without sufficiently understanding the uncertainty around those outputs. Complicated, dynamic problems are more difficult to model than simple, stable problems. Model outputs are therefore more uncertain for problems that are more complex and where the underlying process in the real world is changing. Calculating the capital requirements of an insurer is surely a prime example. The IFoA Model Risk Working Party has an interesting typology of corporate cultures according to their concern for model uncertainty and the legitimacy of modelling. Although they explain that all are valid viewpoints, I would feel more comfortable if insurers fell into the category of conscientious modellers, with modelling having high legitimacy but management also having a high concern for model uncertainty. (see Chart 3)  The Solvency II use test requires models to play an important role in risk management, decision-making and capital allocation. Management should therefore have confidence in their models.
Central Bank of Chile September 2019 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD Forum on Blockchain, September 2019  High-level Policy Panel Discussion on Central Bank Digital Currencies Remarks by Mario Marcel, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile Disruptive technologies in Finance or “FinTech” are transforming the financial industry landscape, challenging traditional business models. These technologies have been able to address some gaps in the traditional financial industry that can be grouped into five categories: Access, Speed, Cost, Transparency, and Security. Leveraging on open-source technologies and Smartphone penetration, FinTech has seen fast adoption, disrupting all areas of the financial services such as payments, investments, savings & lending, insurance and risk management. One example of the innovation across different financial services is this research framework from the World Economic Forum. Fintech innovations are identified and grouped into clusters, which in turn are a result of innovation triggered by common themes that cut across financial services. These themes are enabled by different technologies. The main takeaway here is to understand the potential of these technologies to innovate across all financial services and have a visual image of how this is reshaping the financial services. As this reshaping is taking place, the policy makers, regulators, and supervisors need to understand the forces driving this innovation wave, in order to assess the risks and opportunities of these new business models.

With that in mind, we started a Project in collaboration with our local Central Securities Depository (CSD). This project explores the feasibility of issuing bonds in a blockchain platform, and managing the whole life cycle of the bonds in this platform. Hence, settlement of primary auctions and corporate actions are done in blockchain. First, we discussed a conceptual model that would be a better fit to our regulatory framework. Secondly, two use cases were selected and implemented as a proof of concept (PoC). Dummy versions of our real systems simulated interaction with the DLT platform. Finally, a report with our conclusions will be released in November, once the PoC is completed and possible corrections of the conceptual models are included. Having several other use cases that we could have implemented, why did we choose this one? The most important reasons are: (i) duplicity of ledgers in current systems needing reconciliation periodically; (ii) more than one entity access and write on the ledger, even though this conceptual model only had the Central Bank issuing, this model was conceived to be used by other primary issuers (this is where the business model makes more sense! ); (iii) Page 4 of 11  Central Bank of Chile September 2019  opportunities in optimization of settlement processes for issuance and corporate actions; and (iv) to study the feasibility of this technology (as an alternative) for the renewal of the current systems that manage our issuance and the lifecycle of our bonds.
In economic terms these new  2  BIS Review 21/2003  investments will amount to over 30 per cent of one year’s GDP and increase Iceland’s annual production capacity of aluminium from 270 to 740 thousand tons. The economy appears to have already begun adapting to the coming projects as reflected in exchange rate movements. As can be seen in chart 2. the króna was quite stable from the spring of 2002 until late in the year. It then began to appreciate and continued to do so steadily until early February 2003. It seems that the recent rice of the exchange rate is primarily due to the effect of the proposed construction projects on expectations. The current assessment indicates that economic growth could easily end up in the range 2-2½ per cent this year and well over 3 per cent next year. The outlook is for inflation to remain close to the inflation target during 2003 but it could rise in 2004. As these are the most extensive construction projects in Icelandic history, sound economic management will be required to prevent overheating in the economy, inflation and instability. Although their scope will be considerable, the Central Bank’s analysis of the prospective development indicates that, given appropriate economic policy and some strengthening of the króna, significant part of which might already have taken place, economic stability could be maintained and inflation kept under control. While monetary policy will probably play the major role, fiscal policy will have to assist.

With respect to bank capitalisation, the situation remained largely unchanged in 2014. First, the domestically focused commercial banks’ leverage ratios remained stable at high levels by historical standards. Second, these banks’ risk-weighted capital ratios increased slightly and are significantly above regulatory minimum requirements overall. Furthermore, stress test results suggest that most domestically focused banks should be able to absorb estimated losses without seeing their capitalisation fall below the regulatory minimum. Nevertheless, under the most relevant adverse scenarios for these banks, the losses would deplete a large proportion of their surplus capital. Experience in Switzerland in the 1990s, as in other countries, suggests that this would lead to a general weakening of the banking sector and significantly affect banks’ ability to lend, with negative and lasting repercussions for the real economy. The stress test results highlight the importance of banks holding significant capital surpluses relative to the regulatory minimum requirements. The activation of the countercyclical capital buffer in 2013 and its increase in 2014 has made a significant contribution in this respect. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Risk of renewed increase in imbalances on mortgage and real estate markets Overall, imbalances on the mortgage and residential real estate markets have remained broadly unchanged since the last Financial Stability Report. From a financial stability perspective, this is a positive development. However, it is still too early to give the all-clear. On the one hand, imbalances remain at a high level and have not yet started to decline.