samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Our definition of price stability is that, in the medium term, prices have to grow less than but close to 2%. Inflationary expectations seen by various panels tell us that, over the next five years, inflation is seen at around 1.9%. I believe it is essential that citizens, savers and investors can trust in the fact that we will take all decisions necessary to ensure that inflation remains at these levels in the medium term. For three reasons: because it is our primary mandate; it is what citizens are asking us to do, and because it is a major contribution to sustainable growth and job creation in Europe. Where do you see risks of price increases? Further increases in oil and commodity prices and in goods and services prices due to past oil price increases. Also additional unexpected increases in administrative prices and indirect taxes. Then, more fundamentally, there are the so-called second-round effects, that is the risk of increases in wages and salaries that would derive from a loss of credibility regarding our capability in countering price increases. It is essential to intervene before these effects materialise. Do your concerns include the increase in VAT to be implemented in Germany in January? The increase in VAT in Germany, which was decided upon some time ago by the government, had already been incorporated in our analysis. BIS Review 87/2006  1  You were in Cernobbio, Italy, in early September. What was the mood among Italian entrepreneurs, politicians and economists?

However, changes in the stance of monetary policy must not be viewed as an immediate reaction of monetary policy to the financial market crisis, but rather as a reaction to the expected effects of that crisis on economic growth and on inflation. This view also explains the apparent hesitation of some central banks to lower rates, in spite of the serious financial market turmoil. The precise way in which the financial market crisis will affect economic growth and inflation has not been obvious – and is still not obvious. Operational target and the stance of monetary policy The second lesson concerns the setting of the stance of monetary policy in times of financial turbulence. The financial market crisis led to a tightening of credit conditions and to higher risk premia, which is tantamount to a more restrictive monetary policy stance. In order to offset tighter credit conditions and higher risk premia, an adjustment of the policy rate may be appropriate. Such an adjustment is not necessarily synonymous with a more expansionary monetary policy and does not necessarily increase inflation risks. The concept of the Swiss National Bank implicitly takes into account changes in certain risk premia: by steering and stabilising the 3-month Libor, which includes a risk premium, the SNB is constantly adjusting the repo rate in order to offset changes in the risk premium. 8  The report on “Enhancing Market and Institutional Resilience” by the Financial Stability Forum (2008) presents an extensive list of lessons from the financial crisis.
Conclusion: The suit is not suitable, or better, the suit is not (yet) suitable. For this reason we have to try the tailored suit regularly. All preconditions for Inflation Targeting need to be checked and re-assessed on a regular basis. 2  BIS Review 121/2006  At this Round Table we discussed econometric modeling, statistics and communication, also the legal framework, the internal governance at the Bank of Albania and the arranged agreements with the Ministry of Finance and INSTAT. During this year we drafted the new Banking Law. This law increases customer protection, sets the legal grounds for credit information registry, introduces new rules for risk administration, bringing more confidence in the banking system as well. With the assistance of the IMF legal department we revised the agreement with the Ministry of Finance. These agreements were standardized to emphasize the role of the Bank of Albania as fiscal agent. Moreover this agreements aim at creating a cooperative and partnership environment. We remain committed to further increase cooperation with major governmental agencies to ease their proper understanding of monetary policy process, its implications and the need for harmonized and coordinated policies. Concluding I would like to underline that we are carefully evaluating the degree to which these preconditions are met before shifting to fully fledged inflation targeting in the medium run. Such strategy will further increase the effectiveness of the monetary policy in Albania further consolidating the price stability and contributing to sustainable economic growth.

The materialisation of certain risks, the return of volatility on financial markets and uncertainty about the economic outlook have meant that major banks need to make a special effort in three key areas: i) maintaining adequate capital ratios to cushion them from further shocks, which may still occur, ii) strengthening their risk management systems and processes, and iii) pricing credit and liquidity risks appropriately. To explain these developments, I would like to speak to you briefly about the following points. 1. First of all, the French banking system provided proof of its resilience in the face of financial turmoil in 2007. 2. The current economic situation calls for vigilance nonetheless, since banks must be ready to cope with new risks that may occur at any time. 3. Finally, as crisis conditions persist, I should like to talk about the main thrusts of the supervisory authorities’ actions. 1. The French banking system provided proof of its resilience in the face of financial turmoil in 2007  After posting good performances since 2003, the French banking system was hit by the fall-out from the subprime crisis starting in mid 2007, as were the banking systems in the other leading developed countries. This led to an extended period of strong turbulence. The impact of the crisis on banks’ earnings first shows up in the third quarter financial statements and then more clearly in the fourth-quarter statements.
It would appear, therefore, that as the economy responds to a gradual improvement in external demand, it may still be constrained by its own rigidities. Removing these obstacles and correcting the resultant imbalances is, therefore, a precondition for achieving more rapid growth, which in turn is the key to accelerating convergence with euro area income levels. 2  BIS Review 154/2009  Faster growth is achievable but depends on … The Roman writer Ovid said that times change and we change with them. That may be so, but what really matters in today’s circumstances is how rapidly we read the signs of the times and adapt to them. I will focus on three directions of necessary change. The first is towards greater competitiveness. The second, and related thrust, would be to promote higher productivity. The third focuses on fiscal consolidation and the pursuit of sound public finances. Before proceeding, however, I should stress that none of these objectives is attainable without further structural reforms, debunking the popular notion that the State has an unlimited capacity to satisfy demands for free goods and services and an end to inefficient practices that involve subsidies. … greater cost competitiveness … First of all, in Malta’s case sustained economic growth depends largely on our ability to attract export-oriented foreign direct investment. Given the past increases in unit labour costs, the only way of maintaining a competitive edge is by ensuring that these costs rise by less than those of our competitors.

In this regard, the Budget for 2010 provides several incentives that are conducive to a stronger productivity performance, particularly concerning SMEs and research and development. Beyond capital deepening, improved prospects for productivity growth also require a heightened awareness that inefficient work practices, including over manning, slow down output growth and threaten the sustainability of employment and income levels. The concept of value for money that is increasingly determining consumer behaviour should be given equal importance in the workplace. There also exists potential for creating a more congenial business climate to reinforce Malta Enterprise’s investment promotion strategy. In a recent survey of corporations, a reduction in bureaucracy topped the list of measures that were considered necessary to further enhance Malta’s attractiveness as a location for foreign direct investment. 3 Education policies, too, can play a role by strengthening the country’s human capital, particularly by promoting greater synergies between educational institutions and industry. In assessing the role of productivity, it is well to reflect on the words of the Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, who said “productivity is not everything, but in the long run it is almost everything. A country’s ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker”. 4 … and sound public finances The third policy priority is to achieve sustainable public finances. The process of fiscal consolidation must resume in earnest once the recovery materialises.
The increase in availability of data and information is not without risks. While the wealth of new data has indeed made markets more efficient and has supported better decision making by the private and public sectors, it has also brought about new risks of fraud, theft and invasion of privacy. Therefore, existing confidentiality policies, regulation and data governance need to be reviewed and updated to account for these new risks, so that innovative activities can thrive without threats to individual safety and interests. Additionally, in managing the increase in global interconnectedness, greater international collaboration and coordination in the field of statistics is needed to enhance cross-country data coverage, promote greater standardisation of data and, more importantly, to create a shared understanding of cross-border risks and transmission of shocks. The dynamic nature of the global economy and financial system implies that the relevant set of data needed is a constantly moving target. Therefore, continuous and concerted efforts by both the users and compilers of statistics to close data and information gaps are indeed crucial. Finally is the need for the continued emphasis on capacity building of human capital. From researchers and academicians, to statistical compilers and policymakers, there is an urgent need to ensure that further enhancements in the field of statistical science continue to advance. Policymakers and statisticians today need to be at the forefront of the advances in statistics to identify new linkages and risks in order to calibrate effective policy responses.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Ten years’ experience in steering interest rates – taking stock of the Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy strategy Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the University of Fribourg, Fribourg, 20 November 2009. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy strategy has proved successful over the ten years since its introduction. Throughout this period, the SNB fulfilled its mandate of ensuring price stability while taking into account economic developments. The inflation forecasts, produced quarterly on the basis of various indicators, have proved especially useful. It has always been possible to successfully manage the Libor – the operational objective of the SNB’s monetary policy – despite an international environment which, at times, has been extremely turbulent. The Libor was maintained within a range intended to provide the bestpossible conditions for a favourable development of the Swiss economy.
Despite the significant distance covered in the fight against inflation, price stability has not been achieved yet and there is still a long way to go. Recent inflation developments also confirm this fact. At this point, I would like to summarize the inflation and monetary policy developments of the recent period. The increase in inflation in the first quarter of the year was an expected development, which has been stated in the Bank’s reports since January. In April and May, the increase in inflation was above the expected level due to unforeseen developments in seasonal pricing behaviors. Compared to March, consumer prices increased by 1.34 percent and 1.88 percent in April and May, respectively. As of May, annual inflation became 9.86 percent, which is obviously above the target path. In May, the direct effects of exchange rate movements on inflation started to be observed through the channels of fuel oil, gold and durable goods. During this period, the upward pressure exerted by the  2  BIS Review 68/2006  depreciation in the New Turkish lira on inflation reached 0.5 points. Adding the exogenous movements in gold and oil prices, the total impact amounts to 0.65 point. In other words, some of the direct effects of exchange rate movements on prices became evident in May. However, these effects are expected to be high in June, too.

However, it can be said that this period of time is much shorter in case of the expectations channel, which is a part of the transmission mechanism and operates in a very effective manner in our economy. At this point, I would like to emphasize that the Turkish economy has entered a normalization process. As a matter of fact, in comparison with previous periods, the banking sector has a more robust structure and fiscal dominance has decreased considerably. As a result of this structure, any measures to be taken regarding the policy instrument should be evaluated in terms of the impacts of the monetary policy on inflation, rather than in view of the likely effects of these measures’ consequences on the above-mentioned areas. In other words, the increase in short-term interest rates, which are the policy instrument, should be evaluated merely as a necessary reaction of monetary policy for achieving the medium-term inflation targets. When the sub-indicators demonstrating the main trends in inflation are analyzed, it is observed that the targets for 2007 and 2008 seem achievable in light of the medium-term outlook as of the present date, as long as the cautious stance in monetary policy is maintained. Certainly, for the course of inflation to follow a path in line with the forecasts of the Bank, certain conditions need to be satisfied. In other words, there are some risks to the sustainability of the disinflation process in the medium-term.
Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus: Shifting tides - future of finance Opening remarks by Ms Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the MyFintech Week 2019 "Shifting Tides: Future of Finance", Kuala Lumpur, 17 June 2019. * * * I would like to welcome all of you to the inaugural MyFintech Week and Financial Industry Conference hosted by Bank Negara Malaysia. This event is being held at a time that brings together two important mileposts for the Malaysian financial services industry - the beginnings of an exciting era of digitalisation and a new chapter in the development of the financial sector as the current Financial Sector Blueprint approaches the end of its horizon in 2020. "Shifting tides: Future of finance" was deliberately chosen as the theme of the event for a reason. For much of history, human civilisation could not reasonably explain how ocean tides occurred. It was only through the discovery by Sir Issac Newton and the dedication of scientists over many centuries that we are able to understand it today. Like ocean tides, the future of finance may be hard to fathom at the beginning. Yet it offers many opportunities and risks. Perhaps most importantly, it also underscores the heavy responsibility and ownership that we collectively bear to build a financial system that is safe, reliable and truly serves the needs of the people. In my remarks today, I will discuss what this entails in order to develop a financial system for all Malaysians.

Second, further differentiating our regulatory and supervisory approach to capture new sources and transmission of risks while allowing room for experimentation and for firms to develop economies of scale. An important objective will be minimising regulatory arbitrage, which can lead to risks building up in parts of the financial system that may be subject to differentiated regulations. We anticipate that this will call for a much more dynamic approach to regulation and supervision as well as better communication of regulatory developments going forward. Third, strengthening platforms for collaboration. In this regard, the Bank, together with the financial industry, is in the process of establishing a Financial Threat Intelligence Platform. The platform will collate, analyse and disseminate real time information on cyber threats and trends to strengthen the detective capabilities of the industry against such threats. We expect to operationalise the platform before the year end. I am also pleased to announce the establishment of a dedicated innovation lab, right here in Sasana Kijang. The lab will provide a collaborative environment for the purpose of creating, elaborating, and prototyping innovative solutions to clearly defined problem statements. Recall that ocean tides present us with both opportunities and risks. The fact that humanity today is better able to understand, predict and master ocean tides should give us encouragement for the future of finance. The goal of a relevant, safe and socially responsible financial system can be attained by focusing our energies toward this shared goal in which we all have a critical stake.
Foreign currency deposits are expected to have a considerable annual increase, of about 18.2 percent, or Lek 17.7 billion, by the end of 2004. Table 4. Money supply growth as to trimesters (in Lek billion) T1  T2  T3  T4  2004  Money supply  10.9  11.0  11.5  14.0  47.4  Money outside banks  1.7  3.1  3.2  6.9  14.9  Lek deposits  4.1  3.6  3.7  3.4  14.8  Foreign currency deposits  5.1  4.3  4.5  3.7  17.7  Generally, the M2 aggregate growth will follow the performance of the economy demand for monetary assets. This demand is expected to higher in the first trimester of the next year. BIS Review 8/2004  5  Table 5. M2 and monetary assets demand growth (in Lek billion).

In March, the annual broad money expansion was supported by increased private sector credit, which rebounded in line with its seasonal trend path. The upward contribution of private sector’s demand for money has offset the gradual decline in net foreign assets. Public sector’s demand for money has been upward, supportive to the government’s more active stance over the first quarter of the year. In annual terms, the private sector loan portfolio grew by 11.5% from 10.3% in February. Business loan remains the main contributor to expanding the private sector lending. In the meantime, in March, household loans also showed positive signs. Overall, financial markets performed positively during the first four months of 2011. The information transmitted from financial markets shows agents’ anchored inflation expectations. Key interest rate rise at end-March is passed-through to short-term money market interest rates, leading to a slight flattening of T-bill yield slope. In deposit market, interest rates continued to fall, reflecting also the correction of their high rates having been marked after 2008. The foreign exchange market has operated smoothly and the exchange rate has continued to depreciate at low annual paces. The Bank of Albania has supplied the interbank market with the necessary liquidity for their normal functioning. To sum up, the Bank of Albania judges that the relatively high inflationary pressures over the first quarter of the year generally resemble transitory shocks.
We would not charge negative interest if we did not regard this as being absolutely crucial for us in fulfilling our mandate. It is of great importance to us for the Swiss people to understand why our current monetary policy is appropriate in its full context, and what impact it has for Switzerland as a whole. Page 2/8  Protracted decline in global interest rates To explain to you why the negative interest rate is necessary, I need to take a broader perspective and look back at the past quarter of a century. The level of interest rates has fallen markedly worldwide over this period. Chart 1 shows that the nominal yields on 10-year government bonds in Switzerland, Germany and the US have been declining since the 1990s. There are various factors behind this downward movement. The first of these is the success central banks have had in their efforts to combat inflation. After the negative experiences with high inflation rates in the 1970s and 1980s, at the beginning of the 1990s many central banks started striving to achieve price stability. Inflation subsequently fell, and so too did the rates of interest on savings accounts and financial market yields. After all, if the money on a savings account retains its value thanks to inflation being lower, the interest no longer needs to compensate for any erosion in value. Lower inflation and the attendant decline in the level of nominal interest rates are essentially a positive development for households and companies alike.

Sweden – a small, open economy The situation in Sweden in recent years reflects our great dependence on the outside world; exports make up approximately 50 per cent of our GDP.2 The global financial crisis of 2008–2009 thus had a dramatic impact on us and contributed to the largest fall in GDP in Sweden since World War II. When global economic activity recovered in 2010, growth was instead the highest for 40 years (see slide 2). But this is history now. Over the last 12 months in particular, the European debt crisis has had a considerable impact on economic development. And Sweden is a part of Europe – not just geographically but economically too. A majority of our goods exports go to Europe and over 35 per cent to the euro area (see slide 3). The weak development of the Swedish economy during the fourth quarter of last year also reflects a dramatic fall in exports. Let me therefore comment on the situation in Europe, as it has such a significant impact on the Swedish economy and, by extension, monetary policy. The debt crisis in Europe – a lot of work remains to be done but things are moving in the right direction One of the most important pieces of the puzzle with regard to economic development in the period ahead is how the debt problems in Europe are managed (see slide 4).