samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As in the euro area as a whole, inflation rose notably at the beginning of the year to levels of 3% in January and February, according to the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI, and declined to rates of close to 2% in March. Its quickening in January and February responded, in particular, to the strong increase in electricity prices and the base effects of oil prices. Consequently, this increase is expected to be temporary and will begin to fade as the impact of the acceleration of the energy component dissipates. Thus, after an average 4/9  increase of 2.2% in 2017, the CPI will foreseeably slow to 1.4% and 1.6%, in 2018 and 2019, respectively. The risks The scenario which I have just outlined is not without both external and internal risks. Noteworthy on the external front is the higher degree of uncertainty concerning global economic policies and their possible impact on world trade and the capital markets. In particular, the current buoyancy on financial markets reflects, at least partly, the expectation that the new US Administration will apply economic policies favouring higher growth and inflation in the short term – such as a possible fiscal expansion – perhaps underestimating the effect of such policies on the pace of the monetary normalisation in the United States, as well as other less favourable aspects, such as the shift towards the lower international mobility of goods and people. A trend towards consideration of the introduction of protectionist barriers in certain developed economies has been observed recently.

This document should enable a complete analysis of budgetary projections to be performed and is, in fact, that used by the European Commission as a basis for its assessment of Spanish fiscal policy. 7/9  The importance of budgetary consolidation Before concluding my address, I should like to offer some reflections on the importance of completing the budgetary consolidation process. Spain’s public debt-to-GDP ratio remains very high. Despite its recent stabilisation, it is close to 100% and more than 60 percentage points above its pre-crisis level. Moreover, the budget deficit (both the total deficit and the structural deficit) is also very high and exceeds that of most of our European partners. The outstanding adjustment is still significant, despite the current context of a high pace of growth and low interest rates, that is relatively conducive to reducing the structural budget deficit and the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Reducing fiscal imbalances is important in order to moderate the future financial costs associated with public debt, and also to reduce the vulnerability of the economy to a possible tightening of financial conditions, without forgetting the need to restore scope for a fiscal policy response in the event of possible adverse growth scenarios. For all these reasons, it is crucial to adopt a time perspective that goes beyond the annual budgetary exercise, with a detailed and credible deficit correction plan geared towards gradually reducing public debt.
Nevertheless, this is not a case of “set and forget”. The Committee is mindful of two potential consequences from the programme of reforms. While a degree of deleveraging and increased risk premia are intended consequences of the reforms, there is always a danger that some unintended consequences may arise. The Committee needs to continue to undertake monitoring exercises to ensure that it responds when truly unintended consequences materialise; we understand fully that, if left unattended, they will serve to undermine support for the reform agenda. However, we also need to avoid using this as an excuse to delay necessary reforms; to the extent there are unintended consequences, we need to see how they can be addressed without losing the reform benefits. A second potential consequence relates to the incentives that may arise as the banking sector adapts to the reforms by moving into those businesses where risk-adjusted (regulatory) returns are greatest. This reshaping of banking (either within bank balance sheets or outside the regulated banking system) needs to be monitored on an ongoing basis for the Committee to maintain a robust regulatory framework in light of the evolving nature of the banking industry. That does not mean that the regulatory framework should be in a constant state of flux, as there are considerable benefits for financial firms being able to plan in a stable environment. But, equally, we cannot have a regulatory regime that is set in stone, and completely unresponsive to changes in the environment that it is tasked with regulating.

In the run-up to my second visit, in June 1998 in Birmingham, we had again put up interest rates in successive steps, by 1¾% - with no one else to blame. But once more, following the conference - and again I imply no direct cause and effect - our next move, in October 1998, was to begin cutting rates. And here I am, my third attempt, only to find we’ve done it yet again - in the run-up to this conference we have once more raised interest rates in successive steps - by 1%. I make no prediction as to what might happen following this conference - one way or the other! Despite this unfortunate timing I’m very happy to be with you again this morning. My earlier experiences mean that I’m quite used to entering this particular lion’s den - even on this occasion Roger Lyons’ den! Good morning, Roger. I well understand that some of you - perhaps many of you - would like interest rates to be lower, in the hope particularly that this would also lower sterling’s exchange rate especially against the euro. And to be perfectly honest, if I were a farmer, or a steel maker, a motor manufacturer or even a hotel operator, indeed anyone competing primarily with Continental European producers right now, from my own, microeconomic, standpoint, I’d find that tempting too.
In 2018, the Bank of Albania and the banking sector paid particular attention to financial inclusion and financial education. It is a proven fact now that improvement in financial inclusion contributes to the improvement of the welfare of the population in a harmonised way. In this regard, we have designed and implemented, among others, a series of educational projects that are adapted to various segments of the population. Financial education, tailored publications with information on bank products and services, as well as developments in the payment infrastructure and payment services are concrete steps for providing more opportunities for access to finance by all segments of the population. *** Dear representatives of the banking sector, The outlook for Albania’s development remains positive. This means that Albania offers the banking sector solid premises for business and growth. But, growth and development do not materialise out of nothing. They reflect the commitment, the hard work and the dedication of all actors. Let me now identify three challenges that we need to tackle together. First, the pace of economic growth needs to be supported by the dynamics of banking credit. We have discussed relevant reasons and factors in many forums and analyses. Today, I would like to emphasise that the economy may not grow sustainably without bank credit recovery. Your role becomes crucial in this regard. The banking sector safe-keeps the savings of Albanian citizens. It is its duty, however, to make such savings available to the growth and development of Albania.

I understand that this phenomenon entails a number of problems arising from sluggish demand as well as from supply, which is conditioned by tight credit standards. Nonetheless, beyond 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  structural factors, I reckon that we should react so as to prevent a stagnant credit situation in the economy. For an economy that needs to develop rapidly, in order to converge with European Union levels, the situation should be changed and the levels of crediting should be higher, though still showing continual prudence concerning credit health. Moreover, it is in your financial interest to address this phenomenon with determination, in order to put it on track for a sustainable solution. The financial resources you have and the considerable space that exists for financing the economy show that financial efficiency in the banking activity could improve significantly. The financial infrastructure of the banking sector was enhanced further in 2018. The Bank of Albania and the National Payment System Committee have implemented the national strategy for enhancing the small value payment market and increasing the financial inclusion of the population. The first results are promising and they will be followed by other steps by the Bank of Albania and the banking sector, aimed at achieving a quantitative objective, that is, to see the number of bank account holders doubled by 2022. The financial inclusion of the population is one of the most important current priorities.
So we have a big responsibility, and I look to all of you for assistance and cooperation in doing this. As the Deputy Governor mentioned, I did play a little bit of sport in my youth and one of the lessons  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  that I learnt, the key lesson probably, from playing sport, is that a captain is only as good as his team. You know, however smart or clever the captain is, unless his team has talent and there is teamwork, it’s not going to work. Having been through the process myself, I know how the Central Bank recruits its people. It is able to draw on the best people in the country. So in front of me I know there is enormous talent. And the important thing though, is that talent alone is not enough. We need to be absolutely together for that talent to bear fruit. To contribute to the development of this country, we need to work as one. We need to have common objectives. Not all of us are going to be fond of each other. That is human nature. But we need to be professional enough to put those things aside and to achieve our common objectives.

We have a representative democracy. The people elected by the people – the Government – of course have sovereignty reposed in them. However, the Monetary Law Act sets about some very specific responsibilities for the Central Bank. And it is up to us to fulfill those responsibilities in a very technocratic, objective and free way. That is not to say that we should be criticizing the Government of the day. That is not our business. But there are channels through which we can give independent advice to the Government discretely. I am very keen and I have spoken to our leaders too about this, that the Central Bank does its work independently and in a technical way and discretely advices the Government about what we think is the best way forward for those segments of policy and practice for which the Central Bank has responsibility. So, I need your cooperation. Thank you, thank you very much. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
As I just mentioned, the impulse we will be getting from abroad in the next two years will be milder than the one of the last two. And as we have said in a number of Reports, we believe that the external risk balance is biased downward. However, we must also be clear that this external scenario finds the Chilean economy on the right foot. Our growth rates have substantially outperformed those of previous years, investment is the most dynamic component of expenditure and our country has been absorbing a significant increase in the workforce without a corresponding increase in unemployment, while wages continue to grow. Today’s lower level of inflation and its implications for the two-year convergence, not only allows adjusting the pace of monetary policy normalization, but also provides room to monitor and analyze the evolution of external conditions without the pressure of an imminent adjustment to the policy rate. Plus, there the traditional cushioning effect of the exchange rate float and a deep local capital market. Summing up, monetary policy is now in an expansionary position, with the policy rate that has remained low for quite a while. Although in our baseline scenario we believe that it will still be necessary to raise it in the next two years, we have also been clear about the convenience of taking a break in the coming months.

For the medium term, our projections are consistent with the MPR reaching its neutral level towards the end of the policy horizon. The Board has estimated for some time that the neutral MPR is between 4% and 4.5%. This parameter that will also be revised in the June Report. V.4. Risk scenarios  The base scenario that I have just presented reflects the events most likely to occur with the information at hand at the close of this Report. There are risks, however, that, if materialized, may reshape the macroeconomic outlook and the course of monetary policy. On the external front, despite having steadily input lower growth prospects, the risk balance continues to be biased downward. The main risk remains that of an abrupt reversal of financial conditions facing emerging economies, which could be triggered by various reasons, including a more abrupt and widespread slowdown in world growth or the negative evolution of the various geopolitical tensions that have persisted in the recent past. Although in such a scenario the main central banks would probably expand their monetary policies, a lower appetite for risk and declines in commodity prices are also possible, more than offsetting these lower interest rates. At home, it is estimated that the risk balance for both activity and inflation is unbiased. First, the massive immigration of recent years may have a greater impact on growth and inflation.
The main driver of growth in 2016 has been the consumer, as real personal consumption expenditures have increased at a 2.9 percent annual rate during the first three quarters. This solid consumption growth has been supported by sturdy job gains and rising nominal wages. Payroll gains have averaged about 180,000 per month this year. While this is down somewhat from 2015’s monthly pace of nearly 230,000, it is still considerably higher than the 75,000–110,000 monthly pace consistent with the likely long-term growth in the labor force. And wage gains, while still relatively muted, have begun to rise more rapidly as the labor market has continued to 1/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  tighten. Another positive factor for the economy is that household finances generally are in good shape. The household saving rate is 5.9 percent, which is a bit higher than one would expect based on historical relationships between household net worth and disposable income. And, after a long period of deleveraging, household debt has been growing, but very slowly. Over the last four quarters, household debt has risen by 2.4 percent. This slow pace, combined with low borrowing rates and an improving labor market, has pushed down the ratio of household debt service to income close to its lowest level since at least 1980. This suggests that households have the financial capacity to sustain their spending. In contrast to consumer spending, many other areas of the economy have been considerably softer.

I suspect that all of these factors play a role. What public policy can do to address this issue is to ensure that the economy operates closer to the frontier of what is achievable. For example, more efforts to improve job skills would prove beneficial—through retraining and apprentice programs, and better alignment of education and training with business needs. Also, encouraging small business start-ups would help—by removing barriers for entrepreneurs to establish new businesses, and by creating more start-up incubator programs. I also suspect that well-targeted infrastructure spending would be advantageous if it addresses logistical bottlenecks and enables people to commute to areas with good job opportunities. For example, in the New York City metropolitan region, mass transit is old, slow and crowded. As a New Jersey resident, I’m still waiting for that second set of rail tunnels into New York City that should have been built years ago. While higher productivity growth could support better living standards, the benefits for low- and middle-income households depend, in part, on how those gains are distributed between business and labor, and on how labor income is distributed across the workforce. Moreover, income distribution shouldn’t be viewed as a static concept. It is important that people are able to move upward in income through their careers, regardless of their starting point. Over the past several decades, three developments have been discouraging. First, the share of labor income relative to business income has fallen.
More transparency and better communication also improve MP effectiveness, contributing to a better understanding of MP by the private sector. MP affects spending decisions, output, and prices more through its effects on market expectations on the future course of monetary policy, rather than through the direct effects of a change in the short-term MPR. BIS Review 68/2007  3  Since 2000 the CBC has made a large effort to deliver more and better information to the markets and to explain how its IT regime operates. A series of communication devices were developed, including disclosure of relevant data with a minimum time lag and making information available on the CBC website, a significant number of technical publications, including the Monetary Policy Report (with a four-monthly frequency, since May 2000); the Financial Stability Report (semi-annual, since 2004); the Monetary Policy Framework document (updated in January 2007, previous in May 2000), and Projection Models book (since 2003). The CBC publishes monthly MP meeting dates six months in advance (since 2000), the summary of MP minutes with the Board members’ voting decisions (since 2000), and background information on MP minutes (since July 2005). The time lag for the release of the minutes was lowered first from 90 to 45 days, and then to five days before the next monthly MP meeting. 3.

4  BIS Review 68/2007  The figure also depicts the estimated average efficiency frontier of MP for emerging economies after IT adoption, for the period of stationary inflation targets (blue line) and the observed pair of output and inflation volatilities (green dot). On one hand, the shift of the efficiency frontier toward the origin reflects the smaller shocks faced by emerging economies since they have had stationary IT in place. On the other hand, the observed combination of output and inflation volatilities has moved closer to the efficiency frontier, revealing the corresponding improvement in monetary policy efficiency. In this case, the smaller shocks explain 58% of the current performance, while the improvements in monetary policy explain 42% of the decline in volatilities. Chile also records massive improvements in monetary policy management. Not only does Chile face smaller shocks, as reflected by the inward shift of the MP efficiency frontier, but also MP efficiency has improved significantly, as reflected by the closer position of observed volatilities to the efficiency frontier (see figure 12). Contribution of central bank policy to macroeconomic stability Emerging economies have improved MP practices. However, the contribution of monetary policy to macroeconomic performance still is low. The annual Report on Competitiveness prepared by the Institute for Management Development (IMD) shows that the positions of emerging economies in the country ranking of the contribution of central bank policy to development has not changed significantly since 1998. However, Chile has recorded major improvements during the past decade.
Also, and in particular, we must determine whether the eligibility requirements are effective for supporting the most vulnerable groups, and whether its design offers sufficient incentives for beneficiaries to join the labour market. An additional matter is the problem of the affordability of rental housing. International evidence shows that policies aimed at increasing supply are the most effective. Some countries have opted to combine the introduction of public guarantees with tax incentives for the private-sector development of rental housing. It is also crucial to ensure legal security for owners. Turning to European economic policies, despite the response during the crisis, there are structural shortcomings in euro area governance that need resolving. From the standpoint of crisis management, resolving these shortcomings would also be important, given that we cannot rule out the fact that the impact of the pandemic on the economy, and its persistence, may be greater than expected. We must persevere with a European response to this crisis. Completing the Banking Union with the approval of a fully mutualised European deposit guarantee scheme would contribute decisively to ensuring financial stability in the euro area, both in the coming months and in the medium term. Deepening the Capital Markets Union project would likewise be crucial. And a further priority is to analyse the suitability of European bank resolution and winding-up regulations to a hypothetical systemic crisis, and to set in place a common procedure for the administrative winding-up of credit institutions.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The other is the Executives’ Meeting of East Asia-Pacific Central Banks or EMEAP, which have helped develop the capital market in the region through the establishment of the Asian Bond Fund and many other initiatives. The increasingly important role of China to the Thai economy and financial system has brought about the need for broader and deeper understanding of the Chinese economy and a more proactive response from public agencies, including the Bank of Thailand, to seek a presence in China. Your Royal Highness, Ladies and Gentlemen, Following the initial foothold in the form of two representative offices in New York and London twenty years ago, the Bank of Thailand recently established a representative office here in Beijing. The Beijing office is our first representative office in Asia. I also believe that we are the first central bank from the ASEAN region to have its representative office in China. But, being the first is not the only measure of success for our journey here. Since its establishment last year, our Beijing representative office has fulfilled its objectives to further promote closer ties between the Bank of Thailand and the People’s Bank of China, as well as other Chinese government agencies. The office also aims to sharpen its focus and first-hand understanding of the economic and financial developments in China. This achievement is well-illustrated by the deepening financial cooperation between China and Thailand.