samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
And indeed, business surveys around the world do suggest that the rate of contraction in activity has been moderating over the past few months and that business confidence has started to improve. So the bottom in economic activity may not be too far off. Unfortunately these encouraging signs – I hesitate to identify them as “green shoots” – do not tell us much about the strength and durability of the subsequent recovery. Here there are reasons for both caution and optimism. The main reason for caution lies in the nature of this downturn. Previous UK recessions were associated with the need to reduce inflation after a period of excess demand growth. But the period preceding the present crisis was not associated with excessively rapid growth in the demand for goods and services. Instead, it was characterised by excessive growth in the demand for financial and real assets, and in the prices of those assets. All of that went into  BIS Review 62/2009  1  reverse after August 2007, with a sharp reversal in perceptions of risk, falls in asset prices, a deterioration in banks’ balance sheets, and a drying up of credit. The Senior Warden, in his introduction, drew attention to the harm that the reduction in the availability of credit is having on otherwise viable businesses in this part of the country. We hear the same message repeatedly across the nation through the business contacts of our network of regional Agents. The issue is very much at the forefront of our concerns.

But that is not the end of the matter, as investors need to do something with the proceeds from their asset sales. They could just sit on the proceeds, but it is more likely that in due course they will buy other assets, including those that offer a higher return. So, in the course of time, the whole range of equity and bond prices are driven up, lowering the cost of finance to companies and increasing its availability. Our purchases of corporate assets are intended to have the additional effect of improving the functioning of those markets. By standing ready to buy commercial paper and corporate bonds, we hope to improve their liquidity, lowering the spread above safe assets of equivalent maturity, and with it the cost of finance to business. 2  BIS Review 62/2009  There are signs that these measures are having a beneficial impact too. Spreads on commercial paper eligible for purchase have fallen by around ½ percentage point and the size of the market has increased by around 10%. Similarly, average spreads on sterling investment grade corporate bonds for industrial companies have declined by some 60 basis points and gross issuance of bonds by UK companies has been strong. These developments may reflect a range of influences, but feedback from market participants suggests that our purchases have indeed played a helpful role. In addition to these channels, the banks, finding themselves flush with extra reserves, may choose to lend them on, providing a further kick by boosting the supply of credit.
The main differences to back then being the decisive way in which monetary and fiscal policy reacted and the far-reaching government intervention aimed at bolstering the financial system. As a result, the financial markets have been able to continue functioning, albeit to a much lesser extent. Yet the extraordinary circumstances pose a huge challenge to all market participants, not least to central banks. Both the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) monetary policy strategy and its instruments have been thoroughly put to the test. Over the past few months, several observers have remarked that the SNB’s monetary policy had occasionally slipped from its control. We do not share this view. While it cannot be ruled out that we will be faced with new challenges, our strategy and instruments have so far proved very flexible and well suited in this crisis. Implementation of monetary policy The SNB implements its monetary policy by defining a target range for the three-month Libor; an interest rate for an unsecured transaction. We cannot influence the three-month Libor directly, but rather indirectly through secured money market trades, such as repo transactions and swaps. Before the onset of the crisis, there was very little difference between the interest rates for secured and unsecured transactions. Rising risk premia have since widened the gap between the two rates, however. The high and volatile risk premia have made steering the three-month Libor increasingly challenging. Tensions resulting from demand for the Swiss franc abroad have recently made steering the Libor even more difficult.

Source: MPF, NBR, NBR calculations  23  Figure 32. Distribution of companies with equity below the regulatory threshold in 2016 by year of establishment 25,000  no. of firms  20,000  15,000  10,000  5,000  2016  2015  2014  2013  2012  2011  2010  2009  2008  2007  2006  2005  2004  2003  2002  2001  2000  1999  1998  1997  1996  1995  1994  1993  1992  1991  1990  0  Source: NTRO, MPF, NBR 24  Figure 34. Share of overdue payments* generated by undercapitalised companies  Figure 33. Breakdown of overdue payments* across the economy by company ownership 80  lei bn.
Emergence of faster-pay infrastructures and mobile financial services within our region like the FAST payment and Wing in Cambodia, Wave Money in Myanmar, or PromptPay here in Thailand have helped reduce the cost of financial services for financial institutions and the public at large. For Thailand, the PromptPay infrastructure has helped cut down cost of retail fund transfer so much so that most financial institutions now offer online transfers free-of-charge. These infrastructures are critical foundations for which new add-on services can be built upon to support growing e-commerce activities in our region. b. In addition, we have seen firms experimenting with using alternative online data and machine learning for credit scoring model. A credit 2/5  scoring model created from data of payment receipts should help financial institutions better assess credit risks while ensure that borrowers, especially small enterprises, gain funding at a fair price. c. Another initiative undergoing testing here in Thailand is the use of blockchain for cross-border financial transactions. This technology should make cross-border payments more secure, more efficient, and more affordable to businesses and a larger population in the near future. Ladies and gentlemen, All of these are just some examples of the developments happening in our financial landscape. What is more important is that we must recognize that financial technology is a powerful tool for us to improve on productivity, immunity, and inclusivity. Efficiency in financial services is enhanced, as new payment ecosystem can enable more efficient transfer of funds and significantly lower transactions costs for consumers.

1/5  Ladies and gentlemen, Policymakers must take on the challenges of developing our financial systems with a great sense of urgency. Thus far we have seen integration of the ACMECS economies on various fronts—through economic connectivity in trade and investment and through people-to-people connectivity in migration of labor and tourism. Yet, financial connectivity in our region lags behind developments in other sectors and should be prioritized so that it does not hinder further economic integration. Fortunately, today we have the opportunity to leapfrog development in our financial systems and regional financial connectivity because of rapid advancement in technology. Not at any point in history have powerful technologies been so affordable and accessible. For instance, the costs of industrial robots and smartphones are now 30 times and 50 times cheaper than those with similar features just ten years ago. Moreover, there are a diverse and extensive number of software applications as well as know-hows available to satisfy businesses and consumers; many of which can be accessed online and obtained free-of-charge. All of these have allowed for greater adoption of mobile devices as well as emergence of new financial technology platforms. Looking around our region, there are many exciting developments taking place that can enhance our financial systems and strengthen their productivity, inclusivity, and immunity. For instance: a.
Banks, like other companies, need to discover what will or will not work in the internet world. They are thus exposed to their own mistakes. But they are also exposed to the potential mistakes of their customers. For example, if the telecom companies in Europe really have taken too big a gamble on 3G, this would have repercussions for the banks that have financed them. These challenges are also confronting banks in Asia as they recover from the hangover of the Asian crisis. I do not think that bankers anywhere would ever claim that they have an easy life. But certainly the existence for banks in Asia before the crisis was easier than it is now. If I take Hong Kong as an example, the banks here have always competed actively. But that competition was taking place in a buoyant market, whereas business is currently much harder to find. A few simple statistics illustrate the point: in the six years from 1992 to 1997, domestic lending by the locally incorporated banks grew at an average rate of 21% per annum, and pre-tax profits rose at an annual rate of 15% during the same period. In contrast, the equivalent annual figures for the three years to mid-2000 were 1¼% and 4½% respectively. It is true that bank profits staged a sharp recovery in the first half of this year. But growth in bank lending has remained sluggish.

Telecom stocks have fallen seriously out of favour, particularly in Europe as the companies embark upon what the Economist has just described as perhaps the “biggest gamble in business history”. This is the $ billion investment in 3G licenses and networks - a lot of money to spend when the return on the investment is uncertain to say the least. It remains to be seen – outside Japan at least - how consumers will take to the mobile internet concept. The lukewarm response to WAP phones is not a good omen, although admittedly the technology in this case is much cruder than what is being claimed for 3G. Let us just hope that 3G will live up to the expectations. Even with the traditional pc-based internet, the signals are mixed. Everyone can see the ability of the internet to transform communication, flows of information and business processes. But the means to turn this into revenues and more especially into profits have proved to be somewhat elusive, as the closure or consolidation of a number of e-tailers has shown. In a period of radical transformation such as we are going through at present there are bound to be a number of false starts and failures before the business models that can successfully exploit the new technology emerge. This period of uncertainty poses important strategic challenges and increased risks for the banks in their role both as major users of the technology and as providers of funds to the companies which are putting that technology in place.
Purely practically, we do this by allocating parts or the whole of the result for the year, meaning that the dividend-qualifying result becomes lower than would otherwise have been the case. The dividend to the state is thus affected. However, the dividend model used by the General Council of the Riksbank spreads this effect out over five years and, due to last year’s high profit, the dividend for this year will be relatively high, even if we make a large risk provision. ... and requirements for our foreign exchange reserves The Riksbank, like most central banks, has foreign exchange reserves. Today, these amount to almost SEK 400 billion. Almost half of the foreign exchange reserves, SEK 181 billion, are funded through loans of foreign currency on the international capital market via the Swedish National Debt Office. This currency borrowing arose when the Riksbank, on a couple of occasions, needed rapidly to strengthen the foreign exchange reserves. This first happened in 2009, during the financial crisis, after which the Riksbank decided to do it again in 2012. How large the foreign exchange reserves need to be is basically based on an assessment of how much foreign currency we need to retain to be able to fulfil our commitments. The Riksbank regularly reviews this assessment. It is unusual for central banks to fund the foreign exchange reserves by borrowing foreign currency and it is also unusual for central banks to borrow from their countries’ debt offices, such as the Swedish National Debt Office.

Preparedness to act rapidly and in several different ways has now become part of ordinary monetary policy in Sweden and other countries. During the financial crisis, the Riksbank did not carry out asset purchases. Monetary policy was instead primarily broadened by new forms of, and conditions for lending to the banks. But in 2012, the Riksbank purchased government bonds for SEK 10 billion, a relatively small amount in the context, to create operational preparedness in the event that large-scale asset purchases would later become necessary. And in 2015, when inflation had been too low for too long and the ECB was initiating large-scale purchases of bonds, the Riksbank was able, in a relatively simple way, to make monetary policy more expansionary - that is, to hold down the general level of interest rates in Sweden - via large purchases of government bonds. Correspondingly, this year, we have decided on the purchase of corporate bonds to a value of SEK 10 billion to strengthen monetary policy preparedness. We are thus building up an operational capacity in the event a highly unfavourable scenario arises and more comprehensive purchases, for example of corporate bonds, become necessary to ensure that lending and the financial conditions do not deteriorate too much. In this context, I need to address the Riksbank Inquiry. Previously, in its consultation response, the Riksbank has questioned the actual starting point for the Inquiry's way of looking at monetary policy.
I will now turn to another aspect that is key to understanding the correct configuration of an independent authority: good governance. This is understood not only in terms of observing certain basic principles of public action (such as efficacy and effectiveness) or of impartiality and due diligence, but also of implementing procedures and collegiate decisions to ensure that the primary institutional course of action is to uphold the public interest. As I have already said, the Banco de España has collegiate bodies, such as the Governing Council and the Executive Board. These, along with the Governor and the Deputy Governor, make up its governing bodies. The fact that these collegiate bodies have broad powers in relation to the functions of the Bank and that a majority (six) of the members of the Governing Council are elected and have recognised competence in the field of economics, the financial system or the legal arena, reinforces the independence of our institution. 17  https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:52019XB0308(01)&from=EN  12  A further good governance practice is having a structure of committees to support the governing bodies. These are able to appropriately assess and address the various matters that fall within the organisation’s remit, ensuring an overall view and that all the relevant areas of the institution participate in the analysis of the issue concerned.

7    Approve, at the proposal of the Executive Commission, the Banco de España’s Annual Report and, where appropriate, any other reports that it may be required to submit to Parliament, the Government or the Minister for Economy and Finance14.   Approve Monetary Circulars and Banco de España Circulars.   Submit to the Government the proposals for removal from office referred to in Article 25(4)(d) of the Law of Autonomy of the Banco de España.   Approve, at the proposal of the Executive Commission, the Internal Rules of the Banco de España.   Approve the Banco de España’s budget proposal, authorise the annual accounts for issue and approve the proposal for distribution of profit.   Approve the staff policy guidelines and ratify the appointment of Directors General.   Impose penalties the adoption of which falls within the powers of the Banco de España.   Approve penalty proposals to be submitted by the Banco de España to the Minister for Economy and Finance.   Settle appeals or claims against decisions of the Banco de España where it is within its powers to do so.   Adopt any other resolutions necessary to perform the functions entrusted to the Banco de España under the Law of Autonomy that are not the exclusive competence of the Executive Commission.   Designate, at the proposal of the Governor, the two Council members of the Executive Commission and the members of the Audit Committee.
I’m looking forward to his insights and I know they will be the catalyst for some rich discussion. Please join me in welcoming John Dugan. 1 The information in this speech on the history of the New York Fed’s headquarters building comes from About  the Building on the New York Fed’s website. 2 Citigroup, Third Quarter 2019 Results and Key Metrics, October 15, 2019. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches

2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  The Bank is also seeking to increase our cognitive diversity, which shapes our perspectives – how we think about problems and solve them  iii  Cognitive diversity doesn’t lend itself to targets. But it’s no less important. iv  Research shows that while older  colleagues often view diversity as an issue of representation and fairness, millennials tend to view cognitive v  diversity as essential for a diverse and inclusive organisation. This younger generation is interested in connecting with each other, collaborating across teams and exploring a variety of ideas to solve problems. That’s not just interesting, it’s necessary. The spirit of the millennial is better suited to the complex challenges that central bankers face in a risky and uncertain world. So our commitment to diversity cannot only be about meeting targets. It must promote an environment that brings cognitive differences to the fore, and it must create a culture where everyone can maximise their potential. We need a richness of ideas and perspectives that are exchanged in the pursuit of clear goals under an overarching mission. This is the crux of inclusion: an organisation where people feel empowered, enabled and engaged in pursuit of a common goal. The why  Increased trust  As a central bank, we need to be understood, credible and trusted for our policies to be most effective. The Bank’s work often requires deep technical skill and knowledge.
3  BIS Review 39/2000  The Bank has taken a particular interest in the financing of technology-based firms. In October 1996 we published a report, ‘The Financing of Technology-Based Small Firms’. The report acknowledged that these firms often face a number of challenges distinct from those facing the general small business population, particularly at start-up. The complexity of the technology, the intangibility of assets and the unpredictability of cashflows, mean that they are perceived as being especially risky. The banking sector in the United Kingdom is developing ways of better servicing the high technology sector, but debt finance is not usually the answer, at start-up and early stages. Risk capital is often a more suitable option. The report identified the need for more assistance for early stage technology-based firms, particularly in developing financial and other management skills. As we have heard today, the newly launched Small Business Service will hopefully contribute to delivering this. Other important recommendations included, first, encouraging the venture capital industry to review the opportunities as well as the risks of investment in early stage-technology based firms, secondly, developing closer relationships between science and technology departments of universities and business schools; and, thirdly, technology-based small firms taking responsibility for improving their human capital skills, including presentational skills, to instil confidence in potential investors. The Bank hopes to produce, before the end of the year, a follow up to the 1996 report.

We should then gradually move towards compulsory transparency based on a “comply or explain” principle. Article 173 of the French Energy Transition Law – as it sets the Environmental Social Governance (ESG)-Climate approach as a new market standard – could usefully serve as a reference studied at the European level. 2/ Beyond the "snapshot of risks", the NGFS is working on a "video of risks", with long-term forward-looking stress tests to assess the dynamic effects of climate change on the economy and financial stability. The NGFS is currently developing economic scenarios based on climate change that could be used to conduct stress tests. Meanwhile, the ACPR has conducted a survey on banks and insurance companies to evaluate how they integrate physical and transition risks in their risk management. The results will be published by early 2019. They will be a good point to assess the progress made so far by the industry towards taking both risk factors into account. I would at this stage suggest caution on some NGOs’ analyses concluding that French banks have a “fossil energy bias”. Their large exposures to the oil and gas sector have indeed decreased between 2015 and 2017. This survey will also be valuable as inputs in designing the new framework needed to perform stress-test exercises and assess climate risk across the French financial system as a whole. III. Financing transition opportunities Like any good pilot, we want our plane to “gain some altitude”.