samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I do not think it is an exaggeration to say there has been a revolution in how the Bank goes about securing monetary and financial stability and how it communicates about both. The catalyst for this revolution has been crisis. Having discussed this historical evolution-cum-revolution, I discuss some of the key issues facing central banks today. This is the “dreaming” bit - looking around corners to judge not only what is coming but how to reshape it, seeking out the biggest issues not just of today but tomorrow. It is the Wayne Gretsky approach  For those who don’t follow football, the title of this speech is a line from the England football team song “Three Lions” released ahead of the 1996 European Championship tournament, 30 years after England’s last international triumph at the World Cup in 1966. 1  2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  2  to public policy - skating to where the puck is going, not where it is.2 That can be unconventional and sometimes misunderstood. But it is, for me, the essence of effective policymaking. Imagining a different future is not sufficient for policy success. It is the imagined made real that matters. The Bank is blessed with having the capacity to both think and do, both brain and hands. When former Governor Cobbold said “the Bank is a bank and not a study group” he was wrong. The Bank is both.

Alexey Zabotkin: Plan of analytical work and events for the Bank of Russia’s Monetary Policy Review Speech by Mr Alexey Zabotkin, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia, on releasing a plan of analytical work and events for the Bank of Russia’s Monetary Policy Review, Moscow, 6 October 2021. * * * Good afternoon, As Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina announced making a speech at the International Financial Congress at the end of June, the Bank of Russia plans to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy, its objectives and instruments — the Monetary Policy Review — over the period of inflation targeting in Russia. Today, we have launched a special web page covering the plan of analytical work and key events within this Review. I will provide a brief summary of this announcement and then answer additional questions. Why is this important and why are we doing this right now? First. The Bank of Russia switched to the inflation targeting regime in 2015. Annual inflation decreased to 4% in 2017. It has been seven years since we started to implement this policy and nearly five years since inflation reached the target. This is a sufficient period for us to be able to make conclusions about our achievements. The Review is intended to assess the effectiveness of the monetary policy implemented and take a look at past events.
All of these forces are in flux. For the majority of the period since the UK joined the EU, the first factor – greater openness and deeper integration afforded by EU membership – very likely increased the UK’s dynamism. To be clear, by dynamism I mean the ability of an economy to grow and progress. Dynamism is reflected in the rate of productivity growth, the degree of labour engagement, the pace of new business creation and the rate of new innovation. In the period since joining the EU, the 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  UK has had among the fastest per capita growth rates in the G73 has consistently been one of the top destinations for foreign capital amongst advanced economies as well as the top destination for Foreign Direct Investment in the EU. Today, the UK economy stands as one of the most flexible not just in the EU but across the advanced world. Since the crisis began, the second factor – shocks arising from our biggest and closest trading partner – has challenged UK dynamism and made it more volatile. In the aftermath of the crisis, it is essential that the third factor – EU rules, directives and regulation – continues to support the UK’s ability to address risks to financial stability in the future. 2. Openness, dynamism and stability  The UK is an open economy par excellence. In fact, the UK has bet on openness for almost two centuries. A bet that has paid off handsomely.

This is now commensurate with the scale and nature of the risks that the UK’s high degree of financial openness can pose. And it provides the foundations for the UK to remain the world’s leading international financial centre, one which can safely be home to the largest global, systemically important banks and insurers. The effectiveness of our reformed domestic framework for financial stability depends in part on the quality of financial regulation set at the EU level as well as the flexibility we have to apply that regulation to meet the UK’s specific financial stability challenges. In the main this combination has been achieved thus far. However, there have been some limits on flexibility in certain areas, including:   a bonus cap restricting the proportion of pay that can be clawed back in the event of excessive risk taking or poor conduct, thereby weakening discipline from remuneration;    trigger thresholds for contingent convertible capital instruments that some may judge too low; and    a reduced role for national discretion in insurance supervision. While common international standards and effective EU rules should continue to support the operation of the single market, it is imperative that UK authorities, including the Bank of England, continue to retain the flexibility to impose the high standards necessary to manage the world’s leading global financial centre. This flexibility may be challenged by how EU financial regulation evolves.
4  BIS Review 50/2002  Functional institutions are crucial for economic development Today as well as earlier, the financial turbulence is an additional inducement to create better conditions in many parts of the economy for the institutions involved in the financial system and corporate management. It would be wrong to suppose, however, that regulations and other measures are capable of eliminating financial turbulence altogether. Like the business cycle in the real economy, cyclical movements in the financial world cannot be excluded as long as a market oriented distribution of saving and investment is considered desirable. The learning process in which we are all involved does at least help us to understand the mistakes that have been made and what they can teach us. The focus at present is very much on the roles and actions of the owners, boards and managements of listed companies. Self-preservation alone will no doubt lead to much being done to restore investor confidence in these corporations. Auditors around the world are presumably also devoting a good deal of thought to their various functions. Accounting issues are very much on the agenda. Many banks are also considering ways of providing clients with better analytical advice about share investment. A one-sided producer oriented approach, with the emphasis on getting clients to buy the bank’s products, is unlikely to work in the longer run. Bank managements are tending to look instead at how to make their approach more consumer oriented.

Going forward, the strategic location of Thailand and regional trend towards more economic integration provides an opportunity for Thailand in terms of market reach. We are located in the centre of ASEAN, with a combined population of more than 600 million, a large proportion who are of middle income and have potential to spend on goods and services. We are also to enter the ASEAN economic community, a regional agreement to liberalize and integrate trade in 2015 which would further develop trade prospects. Economic integration with CLMV countries will open up the opportunity to tap into a rapidly-growing consumer market as well as the regional workforce. Thailand is well known as a high performance production base in the region, especially for automobiles, food and petrochemicals. Meanwhile, the CLMV countries have a young and abundant labor force. Thus Thailand can benefit from a production supply chain that makes use of the CLMV resources for more efficient production to support businesses at home. Seeing these chances, the government has given priority to infrastructure by endorsing investment plans, especially in railways and roads, to reduce transportation costs, and setting up Special Economic Zones at five locations along our border to reap the benefit from our strategic location as a gateway to other ASEAN countries. On the side of the Bank of Thailand, we facilitate the ease of doing business through the Capital Account Liberalization Master Plan so that businesses can benefit from this opportunity.
Timothy F Geithner: Risk management challenges in the US financial system Remarks by Mr Timothy F Geithner, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) 7th Annual Risk Management Convention & Exhibition, New York City, 28 February 2006. *  *  *  Thank you for giving me the opportunity to speak to you today. We have seen dramatic changes in the U.S. and global financial system over the past 25 years, and we are now in the midst of another wave of innovation in finance. The changes now underway are most dramatic in the rapid growth in instruments for risk transfer and risk management, the increased role played by nonbank financial institutions in capital markets around the world, and the much greater integration of national financial systems. These developments provide substantial benefits to the financial system. Financial institutions are able to measure and manage risk much more effectively. Risks are spread more widely, across a more diverse group of financial intermediaries, within and across countries. These changes have contributed to a substantial improvement in the financial strength of the core financial intermediaries and in the overall flexibility and resilience of the financial system in the United States.

This "credit equivalent amount" is approximately 175 percent of tier-one capital, about 15 percent higher relative to capital than five years ago. This measure of the underlying credit exposure in OTC derivatives positions is roughly a fifth of the aggregate total credit exposure of the largest bank holding companies. This is a relatively conservative measure of the credit risk in total derivatives positions, but, for credit derivatives and some other instruments, it still may not adequately capture the scale of losses in the event of default in the underlying credits or the consequences of a prolonged disruption to market liquidity. The complexity of many new instruments and the relative immaturity of the various approaches used to measure the risks in those exposures magnify the uncertainty involved. •  Internal risk management systems have improved substantially since the mid-1990s, but most firms still face considerable challenges in aggregating exposures across the firm, capturing concentrations in exposures to credit and other risks, and producing stress testing and scenario analysis on a fully integrated picture of exposures generated across their increasingly diverse array of activities. The greater diversity of institutions that now provide demand for credit risk, or are willing to hold credit risk, should make credit markets more liquid and resilient than would be the case if credit risk was still held predominantly by banks or by a smaller number of more uniform institutions, with less capacity to hedge those exposures.
These enduring traits are embedded into our geography and culture, and will serve us well for many years. India since the early 90’s India too has been opening up since the early 1990s, although not at a uniform pace. Since independence, India had adopted an economic model that emphasised self-sufficiency, strong central planning, and the state controlling the commanding heights of the economy. By the late 1980s this model had run into difficulties. In 1991 Prime Minister Narasimha Rao started to deregulate and open up the Indian economy. Countries in Asia watched with close interest successive budgets of Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, as decisions that had hitherto been made centrally were devolved to the private sector, the Rupee was devalued, subsidies were reduced, state-owned enterprises were privatized, and industries opened up to competition and foreign participation. They looked forward to a dynamic, prosperous India, participating fully in the regional economy. But the political situation in India changed after several years, and the pace of reform slowed down, or so it seemed to those watching India from afar. However, in the last few years under the BJP government led by Prime Minister Vajpayee, not only have the reforms resumed, but a new spirit and vigour have manifested themselves across the country. Last week’s mini-budget announcements show the resolve of the government to press on with the reforms. 2  BIS Review 3/2004  India is now a fast growing economy.

Singapore as a launchpad From the business point of view, a CECA is the ideal platform for both countries to broaden and deepen bilateral co-operation, and advance our shared interests. Singapore makes an excellent partner for Indian companies embarking on a strategy of regionalisation or globalisation. Because of our historical and cultural ties, Indians are very comfortable in Singapore’s social and corporate culture. Singapore is a good base for Indian companies to engage Southeast and East Asia. They can take full advantage of Singapore’s trade and business networks in these growth markets, in particular China. Singapore is also a major transportation, logistics and financial centre in Asia. We welcome Indian companies to make use of our international network of air, sea and telecommunications linkages, and tap the network and resources of 6,000 MNCs in Singapore. Already over 1,000 Indian companies are in Singapore. In the last 3 years alone, over 150 Indian companies have set up substantial presence. Several large companies that are globalising are using Singapore as a marketing and operations centre for their regional businesses. For start-ups, Singapore serves as an ideal incubator to prototype innovative ideas and technologies. This is a promising way of marrying India’s large talent pool with Singapore’s emphasis on such industries and with our framework of intellectual property protection. Numerous start-ups are now incubating in the Indian Centre and several have secured funding, penetrated markets and grown into mature companies. Building on these, a second centre is being planned with the Confederation of Indian Industry.
To bring back the discipline of the market and end reliance on public funds, FSB members agreed standards to ensure that globally systemic banks (G-SIBs) can fail safely in the future.39 These banks have had to make themselves easier to resolve. They must now hold sufficient debt such that, in the event one fails, its successor can be recapitalised to support the continued operation of its most important activities. The powers and tools authorities need to deal with failing banks have been fully implemented in the UK. Our major banks have ring-fenced their domestic activities. They already hold total loss-absorbing resources (or TLAC) of 25% of their risk-weighted assets, well within sight of their 2022 requirement of 28%.40 As a consequence, market discipline is back, with the public subsidy enjoyed by the UK’s largest banks having fallen by 90% (Chart 6). 38  Both as a proportion of the exposures of the 30 banks identified by the FSB as being G-SIBs. FSB Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions. Across the G20 as a whole more than 80% of all G-SIBs already hold TLAC which meets the 2019 requirement of 16% and 60% already meet the 2022 requirement of 18% of risk-weighted assets (excluding capital buffers).

Jean-Pierre Roth: Prospects and limitations of Switzerland as a business location Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Annual General Meeting of the Swiss Marketing Association, Zurich, 24 October 2006. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  In the economy and in politics, there is optimism in the air again. In addition to the favourable economic conditions, the performance of Swiss companies on the global markets has also been a driving force. Working from their Swiss business base, companies have taken advantage of the opportunities afforded by globalisation and are expanding all over the world. Ensuring price stability is the most important contribution a central bank can make to a business location and thus to the growth potential of a country. Significant progress has been made globally in this area in recent years. A number of factors suggest that increased competition has had an impact on this development in that it has changed the political environment for central banks. Competition has become stiffer in recent years, also in Switzerland. Not only market forces, but also economic policy reforms have played a role. There continues to be a need for action here, however.
Figure 1 Countries experiencing drops in real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2008 (*) (percentage of sample) 100  100  90  90  80  80  70  70  60  60  50  50  40  40  30  30  20  20  10  10  0  71  74  77  80  83  86  89  92  95  98  01  04  0  07  (*) Using the annualized quarterly GDP for a sample of 29 developed or emerging economies. Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 2 Monetary Policy Rate (MPR)  Change in MPR  MPR level  (basis points)  (percent)  Japan U.S. Canada Switzerland Israel Hong Kong U.K. Sweden Eurozone Chile Czech Rep. Norway South Korea Malaysia N. Zealand Australia Poland Peru Philippines India China Colombia Mexico Indonesia South Africa Hungary Turkey Brazil Argentina Russia Iceland  Chile Turkey N. Zealand U.K. India Norway Colombia Australia Sweden Israel South Africa South Korea Eurozone Hong Kong Brazil Canada Switzerland Iceland Poland Mexico Peru China Czech Rep. Indonesia U.S. Philippines Malaysia Japan Hungary Russia Argentina -800  -600  -400  -200  From 4 Sep. 2008 to 8 May 2009  0  200  0  2  4  6  8  10  12  14  At 8 May 2009  Source: Bloomberg.

Furthermore, challenges in ensuring that the appropriate statistical basis is available for macro-prudential oversight cannot, by definition, be addressed in full as data sets are dynamic, in the same way that the risks they capture evolve over time. Agility in the collection of statistics will therefore continue to be essential so as to accompany innovation in the financial industry and the associated vulnerabilities. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7
[7] Whose Problem Is It? In setting monetary policies, should advanced economies take into account the spillover eﬀects on EMEs through capital flows? It is neither feasible nor desirable for advanced economies’ monetary policies to be constrained by considerations of the cross-border spillovers they generate. Advanced economy central banks have their own domestic macro stability goals they need to meet and cannot be expected to sub-optimise their policy outcomes. Moreover, accommodative monetary policies in the advanced economies have generated positive spillovers to EMEs, through strengthening export demand and enabling conducive financing conditions. At the same time, it must be recognised that monetary policy latitude in EMEs is to some extent compromised by large capital flows. Empirical studies have found that EMEs’ monetary policy responds to movements in US interest rates and exchange rates, besides their own domestic macroeconomic conditions. [8]  EMEs should therefore have the flexibility to use the policy tools at their disposal to protect their domestic economies from risks arising from large capital flows. Some Questions for an Integrated Policy Framework What are some of the questions that an integrated policy framework should seek to address? The existence of diﬀerent policy objectives and multiple sources of disequilibria necessitates the use of a range of policy instruments. These can be grouped under three broad buckets: foreign exchange interventions (FXIs), macroprudential measures (MPMs) and capital flow management measures (CFMs).

331; Eichengreen and Gupta (2014), “Tapering Talk: The Impact of Expectations of Reduced Federal Reserve Security Purchases on EMEs”, World Bank Working Paper, No. 6754. [3] Volatility of capital flows in EMEs rose from an average USD 1.2 billion in 2006-2008 to USD 2.1 billion  in 2009-2011 based on a 12-month rolling standard deviation of GDP-weighted capital flows. [4] While economies tend to experience additional capital inflows in response to exchange rate  appreciation, these inflows could create additional appreciation pressures on the exchange rate. Ehlers and Takats (2013), “Capital flow dynamics and FX Intervention”, BIS Papers No. 73. [5] Exchange rates are sensitive to imbalances in financial markets and seldom perform the shock  absorption role that is central to traditional macroeconomic analysis. Gabaix and Maggiori (2015). “International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1369-140. [6] “Implications of USD Dominance on Capital Flows and Financial Stability in EMEs”, Special Feature 1,  MAS’ Financial Stability Review, Dec 2020. [7] Williams J, (2016), “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants”,  Journal of International Economics 108, S59-S75 [8] Finger et al (2019), “Facing the Tides: Managing Capital Flows in Asia”, IMF Asia and Pacific  Department Paper Series No. 19/17. Other studies find that some central banks’ monetary policy space has been eroded by capital flows even under floating rate regimes.