samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But there was not a wider market reaction at that point. It was Bernanke’s comments on May 22nd that the FOMC could begin tapering its asset purchases “in the next few meetings” which caused a widespread reassessment of risk positions. What followed was a good illustration of what can happen when there is a general sell-off. Initially asset price correlation increased and liquidity became poor across markets. Because the news related to a prospective policy tightening, risk-free yields generally rose (Chart 3), although at least some of this was a change in term premia rather than rate expectations. Equity markets fell. Some contacts described conditions as highly volatile. EME assets in particular were badly affected as leveraged investors cut their risk positions quickly in those markets (Chart 4). Eventually, as conditions settled, there was more discrimination between and within asset classes. For example, there has been much more distinction between those EMEs whose fundamentals were seen to be relatively sound and those who were seen to have challenges – in this latter group were especially those with both a large external deficit and high inflation.

4 The Report is celebrating its 10th anniversary and also contains an article on how central banks need to adapt their analysis and find new approaches to meet the challenges of operating in a constantly changing financial landscape. This is a task that is as exciting as it is important. Thank you. 4  6  Financial Stability Report 2007:2 will be published on 4 December 2007. BIS Review 136/2007
As long as house prices rise faster than wages, as they have during the course of this year, this upward creep in households’ debt burden will continue. And the higher this debt burden, the more sensitive will household spending be to any eventual upwards adjustment in mortgage rates. In some ways more important from a financial stability perspective is the distribution of mortgage debt. Households representing almost 20% of this debt have a debt-to-income multiple above 5 – that is, around 1 million households. Around a third of debt, or around 1.6 million households, is owed by those with a debt-to-income multiple above 4. Just over a quarter of this debt is owed by households with £ or less in monthly disposable income after essential expenditure is taken into account. And just over a half of all UK households say they would need to take corrective action (cutting spending, working longer hours etc) if mortgage rates were to rise by as little as 2.5 percentage points, if income were unchanged. None of this is to suggest an immediate problem, especially with interest rates so low. But financial stability is about protecting against future tail risks. It was against this backdrop that the authorities recently decided to reduce some of the stimulus being provided to mortgage lending – for example, stimulus provided by regulatory capital relief and the Bank’s Funding for Lending Scheme.

Valuations lead lending by around a year, with a correlation coefficient of around 0.75. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  One way of slowing that pro-cyclical spiral would be to base lending decisions not on spot, but on medium-term or sustainable valuations. Any ramping-up of property prices above their sustainable value would not then automatically give the appearance of safety and thereby encourage looser credit conditions. That, in a nutshell, is the aim of the recommendation in the “Vision” document. Needless to say, there is further work to be done by the industry to make these proposals operational. The very first minutes of the Forum highlighted property statistics and valuations as two areas where greatest improvement was needed. Twenty years on, that remains the case today. A continued effort will be needed by the industry to complete the job. Next, regulators. For much of the period prior to the financial crisis, credit and asset price cycles were only of interest to policymakers to the extent they posed a direct risk to inflation targets or to the solvency of individual firms. Were a bubble to blow, then the most likely response was a combination of benign neglect on the upswing and lower interest rates in the downswing. The role of policy was to “mop” after the flood. That orthodoxy has been sunk by the crisis. After perhaps the largest credit boom in human history, central banks globally are still frantically mopping with unprecedented degrees of monetary stimulus.
(iii)  Launch of the National Strategy on Financial Education – this strategy which was launched in July 2012 will centre on increasing financial literacy levels in the country with education programmes targeted at children (in schools); youth, male and female adults and MSMEs as well as teachable moments. The Bank intends to partner with Women‟s organisations to ensure proper coverage of women. (iv)  Development of awareness campaigns – related to the above, BoZ and other financial sector regulators are involved in awareness programmes through media briefs, trade and commercial shows, radio and TV programmes as well as road shows. The Bank of Zambia has also entered into a partnership with the ILO to implement the FAMOS Check Tool which should assist banks to better serve their FAMOS clients. The Bank has also embraced many stakeholders, including some women’s organisations, onto the FAMOS Implementation Task Force. The Bank has also licensed a credit reference bureau which will ultimately help to create credit histories for financial market participants that may serve as alternative to collateral. Message to women entrepreneurs and women’s organisations I am very pleased with your initiative to engage the central Bank. You should equally engage the financial service providers individually and through their associations to make them appreciate the needs of the women entrepreneurs. You should facilitate training in assertiveness for your members and to take advantage of all available financial literacy education. You should encourage a good credit culture (which is already embraced by many women).

In other literature, women have been credited with owning 48 per cent of MSMEs in Africa (NFNV). Therefore, women are increasingly being recognised as a powerful source of growth. Indeed, at the Second African Women’s Economic Summit held in Lagos in July 2012, women were recognised as the New Emerging Market. Chairperson, as you may be aware, the Zambian economy has been growing at an average rate of above 5% in the recent past. Most of this growth has been broad based with economic sectors, such as, agriculture, mining, manufacturing and tourism recording impressive growth rates. However, there is potential for further economic growth across all sub sectors if the potential of women entrepreneurs can be harnessed. Limited access to affordable financial services such as savings, loans, remittances and insurance services by the vast majority of the population, especially for women and the SME sector is acting as a constraint to the growth impetus. It is recognised that many women, together with the businesses they run are financially excluded. This is also acknowledged in a 2011 Report by the Gender and Development Division on the study tour to Tanzania and Rwanda, regarding women’s economic empowerment. The Report states that “there is evidence that gender disparities in national development still exist in Zambia and one of the areas of concern is access to finance by women entrepreneurs.
Acting through these channels, monetary policy helps to ensure that the downturn is not needlessly protracted and helps to reduce the risk that unemployment becomes entrenched at too high a level. Inflation is now above the inflation target, but we have always held the view that this has been a transitory consequence of the sharp krone depreciation in spring 2020. Low economic activity and high unemployment have a dampening effect on wage and price pressures, and we expect inflation to fall below the target in the coming year. An expansionary monetary policy stance contributes to normalising economic activity, which will in turn contribute to pushing up price and wage inflation further out. Last year we were concerned that a fall in house prices would amplify the economic downturn. The situation has since reversed. High house price inflation over the past year reflects low interest rates, but the Covid-19 pandemic itself has likely increased the willingness to spend money on housing. We are at home more and are less able to spend money at restaurants, on travel or on other experiences. A sharp rise in house prices tends to be followed by faster growth in household debt. This may lead to a build-up of financial imbalances, which in turn could amplify a future economic downturn. Weight is given to this consideration when making monetary policy trade-offs. As economic conditions normalise, it will be appropriate to raise the policy rate.

This is the first time we intervened in the foreign exchange market since 1999. Relatively quickly after the interventions, the market began to function more normally. 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Later in spring, the krone appreciated on the back of a rise in oil prices and reduced uncertainty in global financial markets. Recently, oil prices have been broadly at the same level as at the beginning of 2020, and the krone is somewhat stronger than prior to the Covid-19 outbreak. In spring 2020, risk premiums in the Norwegian money market rose considerably. Norges Bank took a range of measures to improve market liquidity and ensure pass-through of a lower policy rate to money market rates and bank lending rates. Among other things, Norges Bank offered banks extraordinary liquidity in both NOK and USD. In advance of the monetary policy meeting in May, financial market stress subsided and premiums in both the money and bond markets fell. The normalisation of liquidity policy is well underway. By the end of August 2021, all extraordinary loans from Norges Bank to banks will have been repaid, and the relaxation of collateral requirements for loans from Norges Bank will be reversed. Downturn in the Norwegian economy Activity in the Norwegian economy fell abruptly in 2020 Q2. The Covid-19 outbreak and extensive containment measures led to production halts and lower activity across a range of businesses. Mainland GDP was around 11 percent lower in April 2020 than in February the same year. Many employees were furloughed or made redundant.
This trajectory is all the more significant when compared with events in other developed economies and, in general, in the euro area as a whole, where export shares fell during the crisis. Our sound export performance has been underpinned both by gains in competitiveness and the pick-up in external demand, as well as by more structural factors, allowing us to expect this potential to continue and become more entrenched in the long run. The structural factors include the geographical diversification of exports of Spanish goods and services to emerging markets and the more export-oriented gearing of our companies, which is reflected in the increase over recent years in the number of Spanish companies competing on international markets. The re-directing of exports towards emerging markets has contributed significantly to these developments, thanks to the substantial dynamism of the demand for imports in those BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  countries. Indeed, their dynamism has compensated for the cyclical weakness in the developed countries, particularly in the euro area. The relative weight of goods exports to emerging countries has increased since 2007, coming to account for 30% of the total. The increases have been across the board, although particular mention may be made of Latin America, China and North Africa. However, the share of the developed countries has fallen on the same scale, owing to the loss in the weight of sales to the euro area, which at end-2013 stood slightly below 50%.

4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The tensions eased through various channels, among which the activity of CESCE, which bolstered the extension of guarantees and bonds to Spanish companies to participate in international tender procedures and projects. Regulation by the Banco de España The Banco de España, in the performance of its functions, lays down a series of accounting and prudential rules that determine the requirements made of banks in the pursuit of their activity. These rules comprise the regulatory implementation of Spanish legislation which, in turn, is determined by European regulations and by the agreements reached on the Basel Banking Supervision Committee. Let me begin with accounting regulations and, in particular, with the rules on country risk provisions, which are particularly significant in international trade transactions. In these financing operations there is, alongside the risk of commercial insolvency, so-called country risk, which includes, by way of sovereign risk, transfer risk (i.e. that it is not possible to meet debts abroad owing to a lack of currency or the legal impossibility of transferring currency) and other risks arising from international financial activity, such as expropriation and natural disasters. As what is involved is a risk other than habitual commercial risk, it requires a differentiated treatment under default provisioning rules.
We must avoid a self-reinforcing decline in output and employment and hence a decline that is more pronounced than necessary. But an increase in the spending of petroleum revenues should primarily be used to finance temporary measures that are easy to reverse. Fiscal policy must also take into consideration that lower oil prices will reduce the government’s spending capacity in the longer term. In recent years, we have sold large volumes of oil and gas at good prices. The transfers to the government’s savings account have been substantial. The picture is now quite different. If oil prices remain at today’s level, government revenues will fall sharply. The present value of future income can in that case be estimated at a fourth of today’s oil fund, the Government  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  Pension Fund Global (GPFG). 6 That means that most of the government’s petroleum wealth may already have been deposited in the GPFG. The year 2015 may stand as the last year of net transfers to the GPFG. Already when the budget for 2016 was presented, there were prospects that the spending of oil revenues would exceed actual income from petroleum activities. 6  10  The estimate is based on impact calculations in the National Budget for 2016 (page 31) based on a long-term oil price of NOK 400 per barrel at constant 2016 NOK.

The analysis of economic growth factors suggests that foreign demand for Albanian products and services provided the major contribution, while domestic demand remains dampened and continues to suffer the heightened uncertainty about the future outlook and the tighter lending conditions. Monetary and fiscal policies have been prudent aiming at creating appropriate conditions for a stable economic development. In practical terms, this has materialized in greater orientation of fiscal policy towards the preservation of long-term public debt sustainability. In the meantime, monetary policy has been more stimulating. As I noted in the presentation of conclusions on the quarterly monetary policy report, this performance is expected to persist in the coming period as well. Macroeconomic stability and the improved banking system’s balance sheets have created the proper preconditions for inducing consumption and investment in economy further. However, it has to be acknowledged that several important challenges lie ahead for the country’s development. In the short run, the correction of fiscal behaviour requires greater private sector’s contribution to economic growth. This implies a more realistic consumer and business behaviour in their consumption and investment-related decisions, and greater financial support from the banking system. This need becomes even more critical considering the expected performance of foreign demand. The positive tendency of Albanian exports is expected to persist in 2011, but their contribution to economic growth will be more moderate. This performance will call for the generation of domestic forms of aggregate demand, along the same lines as described above.
The French Governor himself entertained Strong at the Ritz, and begged him to start his scheme as soon as possible. Before Strong left France, the Governor presented him with more medals, a copy of correspondence between Talleyrand and Louis XVIII, and an advance printing of the new ten franc note. The British proved a little harder to read. Lord Cunliffe, the Bank of England’s Governor, had a certain reputation. As the Bank’s own official history puts it, ‘Cunliffe in his prime was an aggressive character, who enjoyed a game of bluff, even when he lost it. He evidently had the advantage of knowing his own mind, 4  perhaps not a very difficult mind to know’. Strong had been warned by private bankers that Cunliffe was ‘mentally very slow to act’. And in their first meeting, Cunliffe – no doubt deliberately – left Strong unclear whether he was annoyed with him (for failing to forewarn him of his visit and ‘stirring up’ the local bankers with his speech about business moving to New York), or merely ‘joshing’. Despite this typically ambivalent British welcome, Strong rapidly developed a good understanding with Cunliffe. His bond with Montagu Norman, then an Assistant to the Deputy Governor Sir Brien Cokayne and later its longest-serving Governor, proved closer still. Both sides quickly concluded that providing each other with access to their domestic markets would help ensure the orderly recycling of the other’s foreign reserves. Such arrangements had three key advantages.

Caleb M Fundanga: Campaign to keep Zambia clean and healthy Opening remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the review walk of the “Keep Lusaka clean, green and healthy campaign project”, Lusaka, 17 September 2009. *  *  *  The Acting Minister of Local Government and Housing, Hon Bradford Machila His Worship the Mayor of Lusaka, His Worship Robert Chikwelete The Chairman of the BAZ, Mr Saviour Chibiya Chief Executive Officers of Commercial Banks Distinguished Invited Guests Members of the Press Ladies and Gentlemen I am honored to officiate at this important occasion at which banks have undertaken to conduct a review of the “Keep Lusaka Clean, Green and Healthy Campaign”. Hon Minister, as you are aware, the “Make Zambia Clean and Healthy” campaign was launched by the Government in 2007 and was aimed at keeping our surroundings clean and green in order to improve the health standards throughout the country. You may wish to know that the banking sector through the Bankers Association of Zambia and the Bank of Zambia commenced work immediately after the national launch. A project committee was formed and each bank including the BoZ embarked on implementing the campaign by making financial contributions. To ensure a uniform landscape on all islands along Cairo Road, a single company was employed to carry out landscaping and maintenance works including maintaining and keeping the pavements and gardens clean and green.
At the same time, a number of new, more structural risks are also emerging, brought about by digitalisation and global warming Digitisation first gives a systemic dimension to cyber risk. The expansion of digital practices contributes to the propagation of cyber risk and amplifies it, through the interconnections between financial institutions, but also between them and their service providers. The fact that some of these providers are Fintechs and Bigtechs, which are unregulated and not easily substitutable, is an additional vulnerability factor. To cope with these risks, we must resist the temptation to set up a bunker-style security system, which is a dead end, but rather imagine a system which combines openness and innovation. This is why we, at the Banque de France and the ACPR, are working with the other supervisors of the Eurosystem to ensure that the entities we supervise take cyber risk into account and to set up a broad programme for protecting the infrastructures that we operate. Cyber security is one of the key priorities of the French Presidency of the G7 in 2019. The Banque de France also contributes to the work conducted in this wider framework by coordinating the preparation and implementation of a cyber resilience test for the global financial sector. As regards the risks associated with climate change, they can no longer be ignored. Physical risks – which correspond to the rise in the frequency and severity of extreme weather phenomena – are obviously the most visible and immediate for the financial sector.

Eventually, a draft European regulation currently under discussion could partially replace the French framework with a harmonised European statute and thus promote the development of cross-border transactions. As regards Initial Coin Offerings (ICO), which enable start-ups to raise crypto asset funds very rapidly, their flows in France are still small (EUR 71.7 million during the first three quarters of 2018, 0.5% of the world total) but are booming (4 times higher than in 2017)4. The legislative framework, in preparation, will provide valuable benchmarks for investors, and is likely to increase their confidence in the mechanisms associated with crypto assets and thus promote their development. B. In the longer term, the objective should be to strengthen capital to finance innovation In an economy close to the “technological frontier", as is the case in France, the key to growth lies in business innovation, and therefore in equity financing in the long term: as innovation is more risky, financing it must yield greater rewards. However, in France, household savings are only modestly invested in equity products, and this is reflected in corporate financing. [Slide 2] There is a significant contrast between the United States and France, where corporate equity accounts for 122% and 77% of GDP respectively. From this point of view, France is not different from the rest of the euro area with the exception of Germany (80%). What are the solutions?