samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Let me return to the Triffin Dilemma discussion mentioned earlier. As the issuer of an international currency can take advantage of its special status to overly stimulating domestic demand, this leads to excess liquidity in global market and can undermine the stability of the international monetary system in the end. However, whether the current vulnerability in the international financial system lies in the Triffin Dilemma or policy blunder is an on-going debate. Regardless of the nature of the vulnerabilities, it is clear that there have not been enough high quality financial assets in relation to financial investors’ demand. This is a factor that no doubt has contributed to the underpricing of risk and more importantly, a high degree of concentration in US financial assets, which have the most liquidity. This point is especially important because when the global economy resumes its normal path and when emerging market economies further accelerate their growth and development, it is without doubt that wealth will once again accumulate. This will result in greater global resources searching for investment in global financial markets. Therefore, I believe that there is a need to have more financial and capital markets that are deep and broad enough to have the acceptance of investors to help absorb the increased wealth and provide alternatives for quality investment globally. Looking around, some emerging market economies are certainly in a good position to further develop their financial markets in that direction. This is consistent with the concept of risk diversification.

In the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting held last month, the committee also shared the view that the global economy is returning to growth with the main impetus being the policy stimulus and a turn in the inventory cycle. Looking ahead, prospect for the recovery to continue into next year appears strong given the policy room that exists in the advanced economies to support growth. Nonetheless, it also needs to be said that downside risks to recovery remain, as uncertainty that can hold back the recovery momentum remains large. In the case of the advanced economies, the key uncertainties include: first, the high rates of unemployment which could stifle the momentum of consumer spending and private demand – the US unemployment rate in October was 10.2 percent; second, the large fiscal debt positions which could heighten investor’s concern on fiscal sustainability and put upward  pressure on long-term interest rates; and third, problems in the advanced economies’ banking systems that could act as a drag on growth because of limited credit availability. These are the uncertainties in the advanced economies that could mark down the pace of global recovery going forward. Moreover, high and rising oil prices could also act as a deterrent to economic recovery worldwide. Therefore, notwithstanding the consensus on the next year’s return to growth, there remains a risk that global economic recovery going forward could be choppy and sluggish.
Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy in Turkey Remarks by Murat Çetinkaya Governor Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey at J.P. Morgan Turkey Macro and Credit Conference London  9 February 2017  Dear Participants, My speech will try to elaborate on the recent macroeconomic outlook, monetary policy framework and the coordinated policy actions to support the fundamentals of the Turkish economy. 1. Macroeconomic Outlook Turkish economy was hit by concurrent shocks in recent years. Geopolitical tensions, global shocks, security related issues and a failed coup attempt have created significant policy challenges. Despite the intensity and size of the shocks in recent years, the growth rate has been quite robust until recently, outpacing emerging market average by a large margin (Figure 1). The resilience of growth in recent years can be attributed to factors such as prudent macroprudential policies reducing the sensitivity of economic activity to capital flow volatility, dynamic domestic market, market flexibility of exports, and the fall in energy prices. Figure 1. Growth Rates in Turkey and Emerging Economies (Percentage Change, Annual) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Developing Countries excluding China and India Turkey*  -2  12.16  09.16  06.16  03.16  12.15  09.15  06.15  03.15  12.14  09.14  06.14  03.14  12.13  09.13  06.13  03.13  12.12  09.12  06.12  03.12  -4  * Forecast for 2016 Q4.

Main drivers of the improvement in the current account balance will be the recovery in exports and the weaker imports due to real exchange rate. Figure 5. Current Account Balance (CAB) (12-Month Cumulative, % of GDP) 0 -1  CAB/GDP  CAB/GDP (excl. gold)  -2 -3 -3,9 -4 -4,1  -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10  1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  Source: CBRT. We think that exports will be one of the main drivers of growth in 2017. The main contribution to exports is expected from the European demand. Turkish exports are highly sensitive to the demand from Europe which constitute more than half of our total exports. Latest projections suggest that EU demand will continue to support Turkish exports in the forthcoming period (Figure 6). Moreover, recently improved relations with our neighbors have also started contributing to the export growth again after a long stagnation period. Recently, there is some slight recovery in exports to our main major trading partners such as Iraq and Russia. The recovery process is expected to continue throughout 2017. Overall, we anticipate a sizeable contribution from exports to growth in 2017. Figure 6.
The SNB will continue to enforce the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro with the utmost determination. It is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities for this purpose. The target range for the three-month Libor remains unchanged at 0.00–0.25% and the SNB will continue to maintain liquidity on the money market at an exceptionally high level. The SNB has taken these decisions in a context of mixed developments in the global economy. While growth in the United States was surprisingly positive in the fourth quarter, GDP fell in the euro area and in Japan. In Switzerland, growth has slowed significantly in the past year. Added value declined in the fourth quarter in those sectors most affected by exchange rate movements. While the high value of the Swiss franc continues to present enormous challenges to the economy, the minimum exchange rate is having an impact. It has reduced exchange rate volatility and given business leaders a better basis for planning. There are growing indications that the Swiss economy is stabilising. For 2012, the SNB is now forecasting moderate growth, at close to 1%. The situation on the financial markets has also eased a little of late. It remains very uncertain, however, whether the advances made in solving the European sovereign debt crisis will succeed in defusing the situation permanently. Moreover, there is a risk that geopolitical tensions will lead to a further rise in the price of oil.

As for my part this morning, given the limitations of time, I want to share with you my thoughts on a few issues that I think will be important for the global economy and for Thailand this year. These are my own views on the global outlook and the implications for Thailand. First, the global economy. Conventional market view at this time is for the global economy to slow somewhat from last year, growing at about 4.9 percent compared to a growth of 5.1 percent last year. So, as the numbers suggest, the current view is for a moderate slowdown, reflecting for the most part a slower pace of expansion in the US. This is essentially a soft-landing scenario in the sense that the US will experience only a moderation in growth without major adverse impact on asset prices. From Thailand's point of view, the slowing of global growth will have important implications for our export sector. Exports, particularly last year, have been the key driver of Thailand's performance. Therefore, for the economy to continue to maintain its momentum, it is important that we see in Thailand this year a stronger turnaround in domestic demand, especially in private sector investment. For the global financial markets, I think three important implications are likely to emerge from this year's slower growth. First, inflation is likely to be less of a policy concern across the major economies compared to last year.
Responses by European authorities As noted, banks with international operations have to develop local products, also to comply with different legal systems, which implies significant costs. Important steps are being taken by EU authorities to overcome the obstacles of segmentation. However, legal aspects are only one element hindering the integration of the retail markets, since proximity to the customer is still an important factor. Even though it is likely that the retail markets will maintain local features at least for some time to come, any unnecessary burden on the cross-border expansion of activities should be lifted to the maximum extent possible. At the regulatory level, the European Commission is generally striving to finalise the Single Market programme via the so-called Financial Services Action Plan. The higher cost of cross-border retail payments, as compared with domestic ones, has been a very topical issue, and it has been taken as a sign of a lack of integration. In July 2001, the European Commission proposed a draft Regulation to close the gap between domestic and cross-border payments. In the draft now being examined by the Council and the Parliament, banks would be obliged to equalise prices for cross-border and domestic payments. The ECB has stated that the Eurosystem shares the general objective of the Regulation. However, the Eurosystem has expressed reservations about the chosen method, because it gives too little time to the banking industry to adjust in a rational way.

I am not going to comment on the merits of the precise measures that the banks are taking, except to say that they are in line with what we anticipated at the time the decision to proceed with deregulation was taken. They should be seen not as something that is peculiar to Hong Kong, but as part of a global trend. This global trend is being driven partly by an increased focus by banks on the bottom line and on the creation of shareholder value. This seems the right thing to do in the interests of long-term survival. There are plenty of examples of companies around the world that lost track of what they were actually in business for and as a result are no longer in business. Banks, like other companies in a free market economy, have a responsibility to make profits for their shareholders. It is in the interests of society as a whole that they do so, otherwise we could end up with the banking sector in a mess. But any company maximises shareholder value subject to constraints. These may be imposed by laws and regulations, such as those relating to environmental protection, or by the expectations of society. This means that if banks wish to preserve their reputation and the confidence of their customers, on which ultimately the strength of their franchise depends, they should act in a way that is seen to be fair and reasonable.
On the other hand, the second pattern is consisted of huge trade deficits, which are covered much more by remittances from abroad than by foreign investments (e.g. Macedonia, Albania). However, the dilemma appears whether these high current account deficits are sustainable. Regarding the economic history, despite the fact that in certain areas Macedonia was a pioneer in the implementation of reforms in South Eastern Europe, under the influence of negative external and domestic shocks it had relatively low rate of economic growth of averagely 2.7% in the 1997-2007 period. This resulted in a relatively low level of real convergence of 25.7% of GDP per capita in the euro-zone (23.6% in 1996). The use of the exchange rate as an anchor for inflation expectations has been effective until now, producing low and stable inflation rates. In circumstances of high import dependence and relatively slow implementation of structural reforms aimed at increasing the export potential, contributed to the maintenance of high trade deficit, which was mainly financed by high private transfers. However, the transition process in Macedonia is specific because of the relatively slower process of real convergence and the continuous real depreciation of the Macedonian Denar. Namely, according to some research, 14 there has been an absence of the BalassaSamuelson effect in Macedonia, that is the productivity in the tradable sector compared to foreign partners rises with relatively lower rates. This was a result of the absence of big foreign companies and the loss of important foreign markets, particularly after the independence.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Raising standards in Malaysia’s financial services industry Remarks by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Centre of Excellence (ACE) Ground Breaking Ceremony, Kuala Lumpur, 22 February 2016. *  *  *  It is my very great pleasure to be here on the occasion of the ground breaking ceremony to the ACE – A Centre of Excellence. ACE is a very much welcomed industry led initiative to raise the level of capability and professionalism for the work force in the Malaysian financial services industry. Our financial services industry continues to be reshaped and transformed by several major forces of change that range from the new demands of consumers and businesses to the rapid advancement in technology, the global regulatory reforms and the continued globalisation of finance. On the domestic front we are also seeing the continued rapid expansion of the domestic financial services industry, and the deepening of regional economic and financial integration. Given the paramount role of the financial system in supporting our real economy we require a financial system that will best serve our economy. It not only needs to be effective and efficient and thus competitive but also robust and resilient. Going forward, operating in this highly dynamic environment will become increasingly more challenging. Today the Malaysian financial industry employs more than 150,000 people, and requires approximately 73,000 new hires over the next 10 years.
Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus: Re-envisioning financial stability - the path forward Opening remarks by Ms Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Central Bank of Malaysia’s Financial Stability Conference "Reenvisioning Financial Stability – The Path Forward", Kuala Lumpur, 23 October 2018. * * * Let me begin by extending a very warm welcome to the distinguished speakers, policymakers and participants who have joined us this morning at Bank Negara Malaysia’s Financial Stability Conference. This is the first time that the Bank is organising this conference and we are honoured to have among us individuals with deep experience and insights to share their perspectives on the important topic of financial stability. Over the next one and a half days, we will take a closer look at financial stability in a post-crisis world – how far we have come, what we have learned and the considerations moving forward. In my remarks, I hope to set out what I see as priorities for financial stability authorities, anchored on what we have learned from the crisis and our own experiences in implementing financial stability reforms. Many of these ideas are not new. But in order for us to move forward, it is also important to take stock of what we’ve achieved so far, while critically re-examining the lessons that we have drawn in recent years. For this, it is useful to start from the global financial crisis. Ten years have passed since the global financial crisis of 2008.

Modeling socalled pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) was one of the innovations introduced in the SCAP and represented one of the key challenges in that exercise – and, I will argue, is a continuing challenge today. Given the choice to model net income and regulatory capital ratios, another set of design choices concerns the horizon over which net income is calculated and how cumulative changes in net income over this horizon are incorporated into regulatory capital ratios. The SCAP assumed a two-year forward horizon, while the subsequent CCAR and DFAST stress tests have assumed a 9-quarter forward horizon.6 Other supervisory stress test regimes have made different assumptions – for instance, the European stress tests use a three-year forward horizon.7 An 2/8  BIS central bankers' speeches  alternative choice would be to project losses and income over the full lifetime of a bank’s loans and other assets. Estimating lifetime losses on particular fixed portfolios of loans and securities was arguably the prevalent approach during the financial crisis period.8 But in a stress testing context, the lifetime loss approach presents practical difficulties given the varying maturities of different types of assets, as well as the greater uncertainty inherent in more distant future points. At the time of the SCAP, we judged that a two-year horizon was long enough to capture significant losses while remaining within what could reasonably be projected conditional on the macroeconomic scenario.9 Closely related to the scenario horizon question is how cumulative losses and revenues are incorporated to calculate post-stress capital ratios.
2  See Rogoff K. (1985), "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to a Monetary Target", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100, 1169-1190. 3  Cukierman A. (2007), “Central Bank Independence and Monetary Policymaking Institutions - Past Present and Future”, CEPR Discussion Paper 6441, September. 4  See C. Berg (2005): “Experience of inflation-targeting in 20 countries”. Economic Review, 1. Sveriges Riksbank. 2  BIS Review 132/2007  state-of-the-art economic research and on other central banks’ successes (including the best European monetary tradition), it was also crucial to recognise that the available strategies had been tried and tested in completely different contexts. The Eurosystem’s monetary policy strategy consists of two main elements. First, the core feature is a quantitative definition of its Treaty mandate of price stability, to be maintained over the medium term. Price stability is defined as a year-on-year increase of below 2% in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area. In May 2003, after a thorough public evaluation of the strategy, the Governing Council of the ECB confirmed this definition and clarified that it will aim to maintain inflation rates below but close to 2% over the medium term. The clarification of May 2003 underlined the need to provide a safety margin against the risks of deflation as a result of monetary policy becoming ineffective due to the zero bound constraint on nominal interest rates, should the economy be hit by adverse shocks.

The second element of the strategy is a comprehensive analysis of the risks to the outlook for price stability, according to two perspectives: economic analysis and monetary analysis. These two perspectives offer complementary analytical frameworks to support the Governing Council’s overall assessment of risks to price stability. The economic analysis aims at identifying those factors that have a bearing on risks at short- to medium-term horizons. It includes, inter alia, projections of key macroeconomic variables and an analysis of shocks hitting the euro area economy. In turn, the monetary analysis – which has been broadened and deepened over time – draws on a wide range of tools, techniques, models and frameworks, complemented by the use of informed judgment, in order to identify risks at longer horizons. After the evaluation of the strategy in 2003, the Governing Council of the ECB explained that the monetary analysis mainly serves as a means of cross-checking the short to medium-term indications coming from the economic analysis. When compared to the strategy of inflation targeting, the Eurosystem’s Monetary Policy Strategy shares the essentials: that is, the importance of price stability and the need for monetary policy to act pre-emptively and make comprehensive use of all available information. The strong belief that institutional independence must necessarily be supplemented by high standards of accountability and transparency is also shared by both camps. This is reflected in the growing weight that central banks, in industrial countries and beyond, place on the importance of communication.
The government’ commitment to carry out a full program of structural reforms in banking sector served as an instrument for re-establishing the public confidence in financial institutions and services. The program of that period was focussed on four main objectives: •  Improving the legal and regulatory infrastructure;  •  Building sound and reliable institutions;  •  Strengthening the financial infrastructure; and  •  Liquidating or privatising the state-owned banks. Besides the adoption of new laws on the Bank of Albania, on the banking system, on bankruptcy, and on safe transactions, of importance was the program for a rapid change of the state-owned banks’ ownership, which led to the liquidation of the ANB and the establishment of the Bad Assets Resolution Trust. The NCB was recapitalised and privatised in 2000. During 2004, the privatization process of the Savings Bank was finalized, being purchased by the Raiffeisen International Bank Holding, thus recording the transfer of 94% of the banking capital to private ownership. Currently the Albanian banking system is composed of 17 banks, 14 of which are of foreign capital. The capital source is from different places, such as Greece, Italy, Austria, Germany, United States of America, etc.

Hamad Al-Sayari: Review of the Saudi Arabian economy Speech by His Excellency Hamad Al-Sayari, Governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, on the occasion of the presentation of SAMA's Forty-Second Annual Report, Riyadh, 14 November 2006. *  *  *  Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, It is a great pleasure for me to present to You the Forty-Second Annual Report of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency which reviews the most salient domestic developments of fiscal year 1425/26 H corresponding to 2005G and latest developments during the current year 2006. Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, Your government continued during 2005 and the preceding period of this year to make a number of important decisions and achievements in the area of updating regulations, restructuring the national economy, approving a number of great development projects, accession to the World Trade Organization which is a significant step towards further integration into the world economy, attracting foreign investments, opening and expanding markets and reinforcing the competitive capacity of the national economy. Therefore, an observer may say that the national economy is moving in confident and rapid steps on the right path towards more strength, diversification and employment of national man power. All these efforts would boost achieving sustainable growth. Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, In pursuance of Your efforts aimed at regulating, streamlining and enhancing institutional work, You have recently approved the Homage System (Nidham Al-Bai'a).