samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
According to Statistics Norway’s business tendency survey, the shortage of labour and intermediate goods is now at a higher level than during the booms in the 1980s and 1990s. The strong rate of growth has only to a limited extent fed through to a higher rise in prices for consumer goods and services. Consumer price inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) has admittedly picked up gradually since late summer 2006, but in relation to the economic situation, underlying inflation remains low. The year-onyear rise in the CPI-ATE was 1.4 per cent in July. Other measures of underlying inflation show approximately the same rise in prices. According to our assessment, underlying inflation is between 1 and 1½ per cent, as it has been for a longer period. The year-on-year rise in the total consumer price index (CPI) has been just under ½ per cent in recent months. This is because electricity prices have been substantially lower this year than in 2006, when unusually high electricity prices due to low precipitation levels pushed up the year-on-year rise in the CPI close to the inflation target. In recent months, electricity prices have been at their lowest level since 2002. There are probably a number of reasons why inflation has been low in an environment of high economic growth. First, Norway’s terms of trade have improved. Prices for oil and gas, freight, fish, industrial commodities and engineering products have increased considerably. In addition, market growth abroad has provided market opportunities for Norwegian export goods.

China and Singapore have strong and comprehensive bilateral ties 5 Singapore-China relations too are growing and evolving, in step with the development of our economies and societies. The relations between our two countries began a new era after the first official visit to Singapore by late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in 1978. He and Mr Lee Kuan Yew paved the way for stronger diplomatic and economic ties between Singapore and China. 6 With regard to merchandise trade, China was Singapore’s 3rd largest trading partner last year. In services, China has been also our 5th largest export destination. Singapore was China’s 13th largest trading partner in terms of merchandise trade in 2012. Singapore was also the third largest source of FDI into China last year, after Hong Kong and Japan. 7 Bilateral trade was further boosted with the signing of the China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (CSFTA) in September 2008 in Beijing. This was the first comprehensive bilateral FTA that China signed with another Asian country. It has led to greater cross-border economic links between our two countries. 8 Multiple Sino-Singapore economic projects are also evidence of our deep relationship, including the Suzhou Industrial Park which would be celebrating its 20th Anniversary in 2014 and the Tianjin Eco-City which would be celebrating its  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  5th Anniversary this year.
The global takaful market, in particular, has also undergone positive developments at the international level. From only a single takaful company being in existence more than twenty years ago in Sudan, the takaful industry has now expanded with the establishment of more than 50 takaful companies worldwide with a total contribution estimated at about USD3 billion for the year 2005. The takaful industry is expected to grow at about 20% per annum to reach USD7.4 billion in global annual contributions over the next ten years. 5 It is also encouraging to note that the number of retakaful companies have also grown in tandem with the increased number of takaful companies. 6 The need for strong and credible retakaful operators globally is important to complement the growth and expansion of the takaful industry. Let me turn to Japan's potential participation in Islamic finance. We welcome the participation of Japanese financial institutions, authorities and corporations in Islamic finance, particularly, in the Islamic capital markets. Japan thus far has for several decades had a significant economic role in the Asian region in terms of trade and investment. Japan's investment in the region is estimated to be USD45 billion over the period of 2004-2006. 7 Japan has also been consistently ranked among the top five investing nations in Malaysia, with investment flows amounting to 25.7% of the total flows for the period of 2000 to 2006. In 2006 alone, Japan foreign direct investment inflow into Malaysia was at USD6.1 billion.

As for the gains, most estimates point to rather modest gains in transaction costs. Nevertheless, recent research points to an increase in trade. The estimated effect ranges from “modest” to “very sizeable”, with the respective best estimates at 9 per cent and 40 per cent (Baldwin, 2006 and Persson, 2001, respectively). 2 It is my belief that as the current customs union in EAC evolves into a common market and later a monetary union, intra-trade flows will continue to grow at a rapid pace. Expressed as a percentage of their total exports, between 1991 and 2004, Kenya and Tanzania tripled their exports to EAC, while Uganda’s has gone from 1.3 to 14 per cent of GDP. Hopefully, the continued expansion of trade also will entail a diversification and therefore a more broad based expansion. Assuming that the above-mentioned gains increase the growth rate by a moderate two tenths of a percentage point per year, this would nonetheless over the course of just one decade translate into an approximate increase in disposable income of 2 per cent. For the average household, this would amount to almost thirty thousand shillings in Uganda. It should be noted that gains from increased competition could be accrued also by those countries which are from the outset relatively more efficient than the other countries in the monetary union. However, further complicating the analysis is the fact that the above-mentioned gains and losses vary with the country and area at hand.
His remedy was for the state to compete directly with these companies in the mass market in a bid to raise standards or drive them out of business 19. The insurance sector today is no doubt relieved that such a strategy is not being adopted by the PRA. And, in fact, the scheme was not very successful in the end, largely because it abandoned the collection of weekly premia by doorstop agents which ultimately increased lapse risk. The state would later dabble in annuities once more but motivated by a different set of reasons this time – the funding of war. During the early part of the 20th century, I am told the Government extended annuity provision as a way to access funding for World War. Indeed, there is evidence that states have used the provision of insurance as a way to self-fund going as far back as the 15th Century; in 1425, the city-state of Florence introduced a specialised social insurance system, the so-called ‘Dowry Fund’, which enabled fathers to make regular deposits on behalf of their daughters to accumulate a dowry that would be payable upon their marriage 20 – all for the purpose of financing the state purse. Over the course of the 20th century, regulation evolved further but the concept of supervision had not yet surfaced, at least not in the UK; the UK Board of Investment appointed its first actuary in 1917, but by this point the New York State Insurance Department was already employing 179 (supervision) staff.

Marine insurance had become a necessity for trade – without protection, a bad storm could overturn the entire fortunes of merchants. But a lack of safeguards paved the way for abuse. One particularly spectacular example involved John McDougall, a Glaswegian merchant, who arranged to have a ship called Friends (whose cargo was valued at £ deliberately shipwrecked off the coast of Denmark – but not before insuring his own stake in the voyage in five separate policies for £ and insuring the ship and other goods for £ in a further three policies. In total, he obtained eight policies on the same risk – spreading the deceit between unsuspecting underwriters across Glasgow, Dundee, Hull and London. In doing so, McDougall (and others like him), introduced a speculative spirit that threatened the more sober motives crucial to indemnification contracts 9. 7  4 Statutes of the Realm 978 (1547-1624). 8  Lewin (2003). 9  Clark (2004). 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Practices such as those described above ultimately led Parliament to take action. This first took the form of the Marine Insurance Act 1745, which rendered void marine policies made without an insurable interest. A similar provision was subsequently applied in relation to life insurance under the Life Assurance Act 1774. These Acts did leave a gap – namely, nonmarine indemnity policies. However this was filled when gambling contracts were rendered void by the Gambling Act 1845, as the existence of an insurable interest served to distinguish insurance contracts from gambling contracts.
In any jurisdiction, this is a matter of national interest and its importance surpasses that of the vested, private interests of whoever is involved in the financial system, and in whatever capacity. This basic principle of the financial system has recently been articulated in the form of policy statements in the eleventh five-year plan of China, notably in Chapter 33 and in a most encouraging paragraph towards the end on Hong Kong, reiterating, among other things, the determination to maintain the status of Hong Kong as an international financial centre. These policy statements, read together, suggest to me that there is, at the policy making level on the Mainland, recognition of the utility of the financial system of Hong Kong to the country’s development. I also believe that this is an open invitation to us to build a working relationship between the financial systems in Hong Kong and on Mainland for achieving the objectives underlying those policy statements. Indeed, our Chief Executive has seized the opportunity presented by the eleventh fiveyear plan to launch an extensive and intensive work programme, starting with the Economic Summit held on 11 September and following through with the continuing work of four Focus Groups that will, by the turn of the year, result in a response to be put to the Central People’s Government. One of the four Focus Groups, chaired by my knowledgeable friend Dr the Hon. David Li, deals exclusively with financial services.

The high liquidity helps price discovery, and attracts fund raisers and investors to our market. This is shown by the listing of the large state-owned banks this year, including what is expected to be the largest IPO ever in the world - the listing of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. The efficiency of our equity market is underpinned by a combination of fundamental strengths, including a sound legal and regulatory framework and an advanced financial infrastructure. In particular, the high standard of disclosure required in Hong Kong promotes market transparency and good corporate governance. The size of Hong Kong’s debt market is equal to 24% of that of the Mainland, and liquidity is a lot higher. Despite the significant progress made in recent years, the development of the Mainland bond market has been constrained by over-regulation (partly reflecting concerns about corporate governance and credit culture), a narrow investor base, and lack of instruments for pricing and risk management. Hong Kong has built up an efficient financial infrastructure for debt market development over the years. The Exchange Fund Bills and Notes (EFBN) programme has created a yield curve for the Hong Kong dollar of up to 10 years, providing a benchmark for debt issuance by other entities. A multi-currency and multi-product payment and settlement platform serves local and overseas investors to facilitate their fund transfers and delivery versus payments when they buy and sell debt instruments.
Actually, I would like to point out that the Albanian banking system left the crisis in healthy condition and that it guarantees growing stability. Our banking system, during this period, has carried out a considerable amount of work, which has served to consolidate each bank’s position prior, during and after the crisis. Hence, the banks are now able to use again their full lending potential. For the truth’s sake, it must be underlined that the latest figures speak of growth in the order of 10 per cent in annual terms, a figure which should not go unnoticed or be considered as inadequate. I would suggest the same philosophy to the business community. For objective reasons, the concept of free money belongs to the past. By that I mean that a bank loan should be earned, which means unconditional and honest cooperation within the legal and regulatory framework approved by the country’s authorities. Of course, banks are established to lend money, but first and foremost we need to bear in mind that the public deposits’ stability is more important than an individual business loan or bank portfolio. Moreover, the business community needs to recalibrate its position in relation to recent developments both in the national and global economy context. It must aim a higher productivity, primarily through identifying comparative advantages in the framework of global changes. In that regard, it is necessary to adopt new business administration philosophies on capacity building and investment in human resources, governance, internal control, financial and legal expertise, and risk management.

The efforts are in progress at the international level to build the institutional, legal and humanitarian infrastructures of the globalization that we are de-facto living during the last 20 years. The Muslim World had the experience of building and maintaining a global order that embraced diversity and harmony over the regions spreading from Atlantic to Pacific and Central Asia to Central Africa from early 9th century till the end of 17th century where not only Muslims but also all members of the humanity experienced economic, social and political integration at a global scale and, unlike the turmoil and turbulence in the rest of the world, free trade and free movement of people prevailed without any discrimination against ethnic and religious identities. As member countries of the Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (COMCEC), our goal is to make a meaningful contribution to the idea of building a sustainable and stable global order to reach peace and prosperity that embraces differences between the civilizations as a source of richness and not a reason for clash, on the principles of justice, equity, participation and freedom for the humanity. The agreements we reach today will constitute the building blocks of our inspiration. Distinguished Guests, Since the last quarter of 2008, the impact of the global financial crisis on the world economies surfaced quite rapidly and destructively. The deterioration in risk perceptions destroyed banks’ appetite to extend credit to the real sector.
It is the impact of falling asset prices on an over-levered and liquidity-stretched financial system that imperils the provision of essential financial services. A necessary condition for a pervasive financial system problem is weakness amongst financial firms. The late-90s tech bubble is arguably instructive in this respect. The collapse of dot.com shares obviously caused a lot of volatility, but it was the wave of defaults on telecom debt that threatened banking stability. 9 Why not then cast the objective solely in terms of credit growth? Essentially for three reasons. First, a macroprudential instrument will alter the terms on which credit is supplied by the banking sector, but the resulting growth of credit will depend on demand conditions, which lie beyond the direct reach of the macroprudential instruments I shall go on to discuss. pursue their own domestic monetary objectives. But in a world in which capital flows freely, local attempts to control the pace of credit creation, particularly within the financial system, may not work. All of that will need to be thought through. But first we need to concentrate on the immediate challenges”. The four questions are sketched out in more detail on pages 7-9 of my remarks at the Turner Review Conference. 8  Chairman Martin’s testimony before the US Senate Committee on Banking and Currency, 84th Congress, 1955, discussed by Paul H Kupiec of the FRB, April 1997, “Margin Requirements, Volatility, and Market Integrity”, quoting from Moore, Thomas (1966) “Stock Market Margin Requirements”, Journal of Political Economy, vol 74, No 2, pp 158-167.

Paul Tucker: The debate on financial system resilience – macroprudential instruments Speech by Mr Paul Tucker, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability at the Bank of England, at Barclays Annual Lecture, London, 22 October 2009. *  *  *  What stage have we reached in the current financial and economic crisis? The stage where the most hideous macroeconomic nightmare – a second Great Depression revisited – is now probably remote but where the outlook remains highly uncertain by any normal standard. Where the banking system is recovering, but where some big UK (and overseas) banks have a lot left to fix. And where there has been real progress with many policy initiatives to make the international financial system more resilient in future, but where perhaps some of the biggest issues remain unresolved, even incompletely articulated. After some scene setting, I will address one of those issues this evening: whether there might be macroprudential instruments that could lean against and preserve banking system resilience in the face of credit boom and bust. I will also provide an update on international plans for banks to produce recovery and resolution plans, known here as Living Wills. The macrobackdrop and the credit system At the beginning of this year, 1 I thought it would take until the autumn at least to tell whether the economy was going to lurch downwards into a spiral of falling prices, rising real debt burdens, generally enfeebled banks and falling output.
Decisive and effective action in boosting the knowledge economy should contribute to substantially increasing technological capital and to bridge the gap blighting the Spanish economy in this area. And improving the competitive environment in which businesses take their decisions is crucial if all these steps are to result in overall gains in efficiency and competitiveness. One key area for progress along these lines is liberalisation in the services sector, which encompasses some of the most dynamic activities with the greatest employment-generating capacity and where new forms of labour relations may be more successful. Further, the growing interaction between industry and services has increased the influence of the latter in determining international competitiveness. It is likewise necessary to continue pushing through liberalisation and competition in the network industries, so that the conditions in which inputs are provided to other productive activities allow Spanish companies to compete on an equal footing with other developed countries. The liberalising impulse must be regained, in particular, in the energy, telecommunications and rail transport sectors. I shall devote the final part of my address to analysing the situation of the Spanish banking system in greater detail. An economic environment marked by a real and financial global crisis poses a first-order challenge to the normal pursuit of banking activity. As stated, the first wave of shocks, confined essentially to the financial arena, did not have appreciable direct effects on our banks, and the indirect effects were absorbed in an orderly fashion.

3  But we won’t get there through compliance and risk management alone. We also need businesses – your businesses – to grab the opportunities presented by a post-LIBOR world to meet customer needs in better, safer ways. In the rest of my remarks I want to cover three main topics. First, I want to summarise the business problem LIBOR was originally designed to solve – and how the world has changed since then. Second, I want to sketch some of the opportunities that a post-LIBOR world may bring – and thus why there is a business, as well as a risk, imperative to shift. And, third, I want to explain some steps we at the Bank of England are taking to de-risk our own LIBOR-related business. Why LIBOR once made business sense – and what’s changed LIBOR’s origins date back to the syndicated loan market of the late 1960s. Risky borrowers from developing or emerging markets were looking to raise large sums, in dollars, at term. But the most plausible lenders – US banks – faced two problems. First, rapidly-rising inflation and short term interest rates made it risky to fix the interest rate on such loans for the full term. And, second, caps on deposit rates under ‘Regulation Q’ made it hard for US-domiciled banks to raise the necessary funding. In their place, banks in London – often US-owned, but unencumbered by onshore borrowing limits – formed themselves into ‘syndicates’ to take slices of floating rate, dollar-denominated loans, funded by short-term, offshore dollar deposits.
The answer to the first question - what accounts for the divergence? - remains largely a mystery. The Bank’s preferred explanation, reached I have to admit via a process of elimination of other plausible explanations rather than by the existence of incontrovertible evidence, is that the divergence reflects the way in which house prices are “mix adjusted” to take account of the different characteristics of the houses bought and sold in any one month. Changes in the relative composition of the loan portfolios of the Halifax and the Nationwide over the last year or so are likely to have magnified this effect. To answer the second question - what is really happening to house prices? - the Bank has developed an alternative measure of house price inflation using data from the Land Registry. These data have the advantage that they cover nearly all housing transactions in England and Wales and so are more comprehensive than the data used by either the Halifax or the Nationwide. However, the Bank estimate is far from ideal. The published Land Registry data are not ‘mix adjusted’. And, although the Bank staff do apply a simple mix adjustment to take account of the basic type of property brought and sold and the county in which the property is located, it is less sophisticated than that used by either the Halifax or Nationwide. So I would not want to claim in any way that we at the Bank have found the true measure of house price inflation.

Our forecasts, taking into account the potential risk of high and volatile oil prices, show that the Thai economy could grow by 3.8-4.8 percent in 2007 and accelerating to 4.3-5.8 percent in 2008. The growth is expected to come mainly from exports, given healthy global demand, additional government spending and investment in public infrastructure, as well as lower oil prices. Core inflation, or inflation excluding raw foods and energy, is forecast to remain within a comfortable range of 1-2 percent in both 2007 and 2008. Fundamentals remain strong with low inflation, a current account surplus, and manageable levels of public and external debt. But a positive outlook by no means allows for complacency. Political risk remains substantial. The threat of a disorderly unwinding of global financial imbalances remains imminent; and by this I mean a surge in capital inflows still looms. And oil prices continue to be difficult to predict. We must constantly work to manage current challenges and prepare for those in the future. BIS Review 64/2007  1  Undoubtedly, many of you here are concerned about Thailand’s recent economic and policy developments and the considerable challenges ahead. Some among the international community have voiced concerns that Thailand is withdrawing from the global economy. I have therefore chosen to focus the rest of my talk today on coping with the challenges of economic and financial globalization. In particular, I hope to address any lingering fears and concerns by concentrating on three key issues.