samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Such an outcome could be a serious setback to the timely attainment of our dual mandate policy objectives. This risk consideration means that the decision to lift the funds rate from zero should be made only when we have a great deal of confidence that growth has enough momentum to reach full employment and that inflation will return sustainably to 2 percent. We should also proceed cautiously and keep the path of rate increases relatively shallow for some time after we begin to raise rates. This approach will allow us time to assess how the economy is performing under less accommodative financial conditions and reduce the odds of overaggressive rate hikes choking off progress toward our policy goals. History shows that premature exit is a risk Great Depression Past experience with the zero lower bound also counsels patience. History has not looked kindly on attempts to prematurely remove monetary accommodation from economies that are in or near a liquidity trap. The U.S. experience during the Great Depression – in particular, in 1937 – is a classic example for monetary historians: In response to the positive growth and reinflation that occurred after devaluation and suspension of gold convertibility, the Fed raised reserve requirements, the Treasury sterilized gold inflows, and there was a fiscal contraction. Subsequently, the economy dropped back into recession and deflation. During this time, interest rates remained very low. The discount rate was lower after 1937 than before, and Treasury bill rates were less than 1 percent.

And the inability of the money supply to vary in response to demand would likely cause greater volatility in prices and real activity. 17 As the Italian philosopher George Santayana famously observed. 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7  In the short run, the fixed supply of Bitcoin has fed a global speculative mania that has encouraged a proliferation of new cryptocurrencies. As my colleague Agustin Carstens has argued, this surge of competitors and the “forking” of Bitcoin echoes the debasement of private monies in the past. 18  Inefficient Media of Exchange The most fundamental reason to be sceptical about the longer term value of cryptocurrencies is that it is not clear the extent to which they will ever become effective media of exchange. Currently, no major high street or online retailer accepts Bitcoin as payment in the UK, and only a handful of the top 500 US online retailers do. For those who can find someone willing to accept payment for goods and services in cryptocurrencies, the speed and cost of the transaction varies but it is generally slower and more expensive than payments in sterling. That’s because the more heavily used cryptocurrencies face severe capacity constraints compared with other payment systems. For example, Visa can process up to 65,000 transactions per second globally against just 7 per second for Bitcoin. And if you use a debit or credit card in the UK, the transaction is completed in seconds and without exchange rate risk.
For that reason, they became relevant for our monetary policy. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The role of domestic inflation These global factors, however, have by no means been the only force driving disinflation in the euro area. If we decompose inflation in the euro area and the United States, a striking difference is that, at least until the start of this year, domestic factors explain a much more important part of our disinflationary trend (Figure 3). This stronger role for domestic forces in the euro area has contributed to core inflation diverging from some other advanced economies. It has hovered consistently around 1% since mid-2013 (Figure 4). The ECB’s objective is headline inflation, and there are good reasons for this, not least to keep purchasing power stable. Headline inflation is also a better predictor of short-term inflation developments. But core inflation has to be taken into account because it is more closely linked to medium-term inflation trends. In fact, ECB staff analysis shows that core inflation is a better predictor of medium-term headline inflation than headline itself. Persistently low core inflation is therefore a risk to our mandate. So why have domestic factors affected inflation more in the euro area? The main reason is that, from 2011 onwards, the euro area experienced a sovereign debt crisis and a double-dip recession, while other advanced economies recovered (Figure 5). That led to a very prolonged downturn, which was associated with a decline in employment, depressed wage growth, and low business and consumer confidence.

Developments towards the end of last year were marked by lower demand for oil. In December, the OPEC countries together with Russia, Mexico and Norway decided to limit oil production. This may have contributed to increasing the oil price during the last months. The risk of war in the Middle East and the decline in commercial oil stocks in the US may also have contributed to increasing the oil price. Oil prices plunged by around 40 per cent between autumn 2000 and the end of 2001. Developments towards the end of last year were marked by lower demand for oil. In December, the OPEC countries together with Russia, Mexico and Norway decided to limit oil production. This may have contributed to increasing the oil price during the last months. The risk of war in the Middle East and the decline in commercial oil stocks in the US may also have contributed to increasing the oil price. BIS Review 20/2002  1  2  BIS Review 20/2002  The global slowdown started to have ripple effects on the Norwegian economy during autumn and winter. Prices for important Norwegian export products fell, and markets for many export industries have weakened. Salmon prices dropped by close to 20 per cent in 2001, after reaching record levels the previous year. The trade policy in the EU stipulates a minimum price for salmon exports, to the benefit of ineffective and high cost producers. The volume of traditional exports fell in autumn last year.
On recommendation of the IMF, World Bank and EBA, the  1  James Riddle (“Jimmy”) Hoffa (1913–1975), a famous American labour union leader who in the 1960s was charged with and then convicted of ties with organised crime, corruption and financial fraud. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Banking Supervision Department is now already working to assess the compliance of the supervisory practices in Bulgaria with the “Basel Core Principles”2 for effective banking supervision as a first stage of the FSAP. In addition, the BNB has already drawn up and proposed to the Members of Parliament a draft of amendments to the Law on the BNB and the Law on Credit Institutions, designed to rectify some weaknesses in the legal framework and to allow the BNB Governing Council to have more control over the banking supervision functions. Because all of you here are well aware of the facts, but they were cunningly ignored and avoided by those who were attacking the BNB. Since June 1997 by law the BNB Governing Council has been the body that adopts all banking regulations (i.e. the ordinances defining the norms and requirements for banks’ activities). However, supervision is exclusively entrusted to the deputy governor in charge of the Banking Supervision Department (no matter what his or her name is), who acts separately and independently. The crisis with KTB, and not only that one, clearly demonstrated that such immense concentration of power and responsibility in one official is a mistake of legislation. And we want to change this.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  roubles, and instead the BNB was obliged to pay out to the Soviet armed forces passing through our country “the amounts they needed at their request” and those amounts were to be accounted for as a debt of the country.3 We do hope such times would never again return in Bulgaria. Bolshevik enthusiasm and decisions made under street pressure are the most dangerous approach when it comes to public policies regarding the monetary regime, banking supervision or financial stability. Today, once again we are called to stand up for the professionalism and independence of the central bank – with responsibility and concrete actions. The public interest requires that the reputation of the central bank be respected and its institutional independence and continuity in its work be safeguarded. The strength of institutions in a country is a pre-condition for stability and economic growth, while the weakness of institutions is the first sign of forthcoming economic or financial failure of a country. It is not a coincidence that in the countries which usually serve us as an example of democracy and prosperity, the strong public institutions by rule outlive the individuals and the political parties too. Dear Colleagues, Finally, please allow me to convey the best wishes on behalf of the BNB Governing Council and me for success of the banks run by you and for professional and personal achievements of all of you in the coming year of 2015. Happy Banker’s Day, dear colleagues! Thank you for your attention!
All of this serves, I think, to demonstrate the wisdom of the Open University's approach, which is to provide formal education at the time in life when people are getting the most out of their practical, reallife experience. Alumni Link - and, I believe, occasions such as this - will help to further this approach. I thank the Open University for having invited me to give this talk, and I look forward very much to your questions and comments. 6  BIS Review 44/2003

Continued growth at a rate around 3 to 4 per cent was not reasonable. Observers usually consider that the Swedish economy is capable of long-term growth at an annual rate of about 2 to 2.5 per cent. A similar situation had been faced for a time by other central banks around the world. In the United States, for example, the Federal Reserve had raised its instrumental rate successively during 1999 and 2000 to 6.5 per cent. In Europe, the ECB tightened its rate last year to 4.75 per cent, while the Bank of England’s rate was raised to 6.0 per cent. The same type of reaction was also evident in other countries. I recall that in the course of last year many observers counted on relatively large interest rate hikes in Sweden, too. They thought they saw clear signs that the Swedish economy was on the way to becoming overheated and argued fairly strongly that the Riksbank should therefore act quickly to increase its instrumental rate in keeping with other central banks around the world. But the Riksbank arrived at a different assessment and chose instead to proceed more cautiously with interest rate increases. In our opinion, the relatively favourable inflation prospects last year simply did not warrant a tighter monetary stance. We kept to the level of 3.75 per cent for practically the whole of 2000. In December, however, we did raise the repo rate 0.25 per cent points, from 3.75 to 4.0 per cent.
Conclusion This Summit is a measure of how far we have come, and an aspiration to how much more we can do together. Let us continue to scale new heights and explore new frontiers of collaboration, for a more connected and prosperous Asia. Thank you. 1  China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong; and Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Cambodia, Singapore. 2 Insurance cover against equipment/goods in transit  5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches

Fiscal domination remains a constant risk to price stability, as it came out of the experience presented here by Mr. Baschi (Turkey). We hope that the commitment of the government for developing a better coordination of monetary and fiscal policies will continue in the future, as the Minister of Finance, Mr. Malaj stated in his speech. This idea was further elaborated on in the presentation authored by Mr. Hida and Mr. Haderi. Dollarisation or FX may constitute another obstacle that places financial stability and monetary policy independence at risk, as argued by Mr. Driessen. Therefore, it is a problem that needs attention. What inflation rate should be targeted remains a subject of debate. This concern was presented by Mr. Olters. The Bank of Albania is closely addressing this issue in a very prudential manner, so that it does not become an obstacle for economic growth. In light of the above difficulties for passing to a new regime, as stressed by Mr. Mayes, it is important to implement a robust strategy so as to avoid large mistakes. Price stability, as stressed some times during the conference, helps economic growth. On the other hand, the second pillar of the Bank of Albania, the financial stability, is likely to play a more important role for economic extension. But, as Mr. Blejer stressed in his speech, stability should not be turned into an end in itself. A good regulated but undeveloped financial sector may be as ineffective as a deregulated sector.
Several years of debilitating external debt, regional political instability, and doubtful macroeconomic management have all played a role in keeping private capital flows away from our economies. However, with endurance, progress in the region generally and Zambia in particularly is certainly being recorded. A glimmer of hope is finally showing that we are once again being welcomed in the international capital market arena. As you are aware, the Government has over the years set out programs to reform the country’s political and economic platforms. Politically, Zambia has been one of the most stable democracies in Africa boasting peace since independence in 1964. On the economic front, Zambia has made respectable progress in the area of macroeconomic management. Over the recent past, the Zambian economy has performed relatively well. This is reflected in positive growth rates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), low inflation, relatively stable exchange rate, stable financial sector and improved banking services. In addition, Zambia’s access to the Highly Indebted Poor Country Initiative and the Multi-lateral Debt Relief Initiative resources drastically reduced the country’s onerous debt burden from around US $ 7 billion to below US $ 1 billion. The removal of the debt burden also made Zambia more attractive to foreign direct investment and capital flows, that have been an important source of investment financing. Furthermore, over the recent past, the growth in the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has remained positive and above 5% for the last six years.

Ladies and Gentlemen, with these few remarks I hereby declare this workshop officially open. I thank you for your attention. 2  BIS Review 51/2010
Aside from the risks inherent to the short-run performance of the economy, there are doubts regarding the medium-term effectiveness of the measures adopted to try to resolve the international crisis, the potential protectionist actions by governments and a possible deflation in developed economies that may delay decisions to consume and invest. Global imbalances are still present, and there is also the risk of high global inflationary pressures in the medium term if the large fiscal and monetary stimulus packages in the developed world are not properly managed. Domestically, we cannot rule out that, facing a relief in global uncertainty, the magnitude of the macroeconomic impulse under way, deriving from the combination of clearly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, translates into a strong push to domestic output and demand. Nor can we rule out that the measures taken by the government to smoothen the functioning of credit markets, to stimulate investment and to cushion the impact on the labor market of the cyclical situation, facilitate a faster response of the economy to said macroeconomic stimulus and a rapid recovery of expectations. Final considerations I would like to end this presentation with some reflections about the economic situation we are going through and the prospects for our economy. The worsening of expectations and the higher uncertainty at the global level are grounded on the change in macroeconomic conditions.

The global upturn, higher oil prices and low interest rates have contributed to pushing up growth. After falling sharply for several years, investment on the Norwegian shelf and oil service exports expanded last year. A number of signs indicate that capacity utilisation has continued to rise in recent months. The number of employed persons as share of the working-age population has increased, and unemployment has drifted down further. There is also an increase in the number of enterprises reporting capacity constraints. Chart: Inflation has risen Consumer price inflation has increased over the past year, partly reflecting higher wage growth. Tighter labour market conditions suggest that wage growth will increase further. The risk outlook is dominated in particular by the global developments mentioned. Over the past 5/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  year, rising protectionism and political uncertainty have weighted on global growth. The UK’s relations with the EU have yet to be clarified. If trade tensions deepen, growth among trading partners may be lower than projected. At the same time, the krone may remain weak, if global uncertainty persist. The target for monetary policy is annual consumer price inflation of close to 2 percent over time. Inflation targeting shall be forward-looking and flexible, so that it can contribute to high and stable output and employment and to countering the build-up of financial imbalances. At its meeting in March, the Executive Board noted that the monetary stance in Norway is accommodative. Underlying inflation is a little higher than the inflation target.
139 of the 199 authorized institutions in Hong Kong are either branches or subsidiaries of banking groups incorporated outside of the territory. An important function of the new service is to enable financial institutions to make use of securities held in one of the partner systems as collateral to conduct secured borrowing in the Hong Kong dollar or renminbi in Hong Kong. As an example, a bank in Europe can make use of its securities held with Euroclear Bank or J.P. Morgan to borrow Hong Kong dollar to meet the liquidity needs of its Hong Kong subsidiary. The enhanced capability of authorized institutions to manage the liquidity needs in the local currency, no doubt, will help to maintain financial stability in Hong Kong. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The facility will also substantially strengthen Hong Kong’s role as the global hub for offshore renminbi business. Being the first mover in developing offshore renminbi business, Hong Kong has the largest offshore renminbi liquidity pool, amounting to RMB 674 billion at the end of April 2012, and has developed a vibrant CNH market and the largest offshore RMB bond market. More foreign banks are either choosing to have a base in Hong Kong or are using RMB correspondent banking services provided by banks in Hong Kong. As at the end of May 2012, there were 196 banks participating in Hong Kong’s renminbi clearing platform. Of these, 170 are foreign-owned or located overseas.

The HKMA is delighted to work with Euroclear Bank and J.P.Morgan, the two premier global tripartite repo system operators, to bring this concept to fruition. With security pools valued at EUR 10.8 trillion and $ 17.9 trillion respectively, both institutions provide a huge reservoir and a highly sophisticated platform to support cross-border cross currency lending with ample choices of securities as collateral. Linked up by the HKMA’s Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) as an agent, CMU members will be able to enjoy the collateral management service of the global repo operators which include functions like auto-selection and auto-substitution of collateral, collateral eligibility filters, daily mark-to-market and prudent haircut execution, all of which will help financial institutions in their collateral management processes. As a further development, we are working with our two partners to expand the repo service to allow financial institutions in Hong Kong to use their securities kept with the CMU, Euroclear and J.P. Morgan as collateral to obtain foreign currency liquidity such as US dollars from the global broker dealers in the second half of 2012. This will help local companies and financial institutions to obtain foreign currency liquidity as they expand their business overseas. Finally, the HKMA has a long term vision for repo financing to become a more important source of funding for companies and banks in Hong Kong.
Ardian Fullani: Albania’s economic and financial developments in 2011 Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the presentation of the Bank of Albania’s Annual Report 2011 to the Parliamentary Committee on Economy and Finance, Tirana, 30 April 2012. *  *  *  Honourable Chair, Distinguished Members of the Committee, Ladies and Gentlemen, *** Before starting my speech, I would appreciate your kind understanding about the fact that the period after the submission of the Report has enriched the 2011’s economic data inventory with new information. It is understandable why this information is not incorporated into the submitted material. In the following, I will address overall economic developments based on the latest information, trying to also identify the differences between the latest data and the version available to you. *** Our annual meeting on introducing Bank of Albania’s Annual Report remains a special pleasure for me. More than a legal obligation, the Bank of Albania considers this Report as an important step to enhance institutional transparency, foster accountability and intensify the dialogue with all economic policy-makers and stakeholders. Let me now start with an overview of main conclusions of the Report. The economic activity recorded positive growth rates, while the macroeconomic balances remained stable or were further strengthened. It should be emphasized that this activity was conducted against the backdrop of deteriorating global economic and financial situation in 2011.

Bank of Albania’s international reserve remained almost unchanged at EUR 1.9 billion, sufficient to cover 4.4 months of imports of goods and services. In line with the economic activity performance, employment figures showed gradual signs of recovery in 2011. According to INSTAT’s data, the average number of employed people increased by 1.7%, mainly as a result of higher employment in the private non-agricultural sector, while the number of people employed in the public sector maintained the downtrend that had begun in the last quarter of 2010. The number of unemployed people remained almost unchanged from the previous year. Despite the higher employment in the economy, unemployment rate dropped slightly by only 0.2 percentage points to 13.3% at end-2011. The presence of the negative output gap and the incomplete utilization of capacities kept the unemployment rate above 13% over 2011, thereby conditioning the dynamics of nominal wage increase in economy. Monetary indicators in 2011 were in line with the real-economy developments, featured by a moderate monetary supply growth, low demand of the economy for funding and steadily high propensity of consumers to save. The broad money increased by 9.2%, y-o-y. Stimulating measures taken by the Bank of Albania, along with good liquidity condition and well capitalisation of the banking system, supported the increase of lending to the economy in 2011. Private sector credit was up by 11.7% on average, improving from a year earlier. Nonetheless, the increase in bank lending remains contained due to supply and demand factors.