samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
From the beginning of this year, business surveys have improved, broad money growth has stabilised at around 5% a year, and the housing market is picking up. Despite this encouraging picture, growth is not yet strong enough to reduce the considerable margin of spare capacity in the economy. Nor is recovery at an adequate rate fully assured. The weakness of the euro area and the problems of the UK banking system continue to act as a drag on growth. So the need to support the recovery remains. Of course we must be mindful of the risks from injecting more money into the economy. We cannot afford to return to the inflationary episodes of the past. In the two decades before inflation targeting was introduced in 1992, inflation averaged almost 10% a year. The purpose of inflation targeting was to change the way in which interest rate decisions were made and to build credibility in the UK’s commitment to price stability. Over the following two decades, CPI inflation averaged only a fraction above 2%. Today, inflation is above the 2% target – as it has been for most of the past five years. But our economy has had to absorb an BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  oil price shock on a par with that of the 1970s, as well as a sharp depreciation of sterling.

Secondly, comprehensive preparations needed to better counter shocks. This includes multilateral surveillance that provides better insights on the increasing interconnectedness, through exposures of banks and corporates. For the East Asian region, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) serves as a regional surveillance unit to enhance its members’ macro-monitoring systems. And to the global extent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has introduced the early warning exercise and cluster surveillance aiming at strengthening a country’s capability to monitor tail-risks at a more systemic and regional level. And thirdly, swift and effective resolution including multi-layered liquidity provision. The deepest layer within starts from the ASEAN Swap Arrangement (ASA), followed by the Chiang Mai Initiative’s Multilateralization (CMIM), and the liquidity provision from the IMF. Not only will it provide safeguard for members, coordination under these collective actions will also offer good will for global investors and enable them to quickly revive confidence, should any shock occurs in the financial markets. Final thoughts Ladies and gentlemen, keeping our houses in order is the policymakers’ usual business. While economic and financial interconnectedness has become more sophisticated, strengthening international coordination would be pivotal to success. This requires  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  extra effort in building stronger fences for global economic community to effectively handle any unwanted shocks and new generation of crisis in the periods ahead. Last but not least, I am confident that with knowledge and experiences sharing among us, we will be a step closer to improve our role in promoting economic and financial stability.
As regards monetary policy, the Bank of Russia set itself the task of reducing inflation from the level at that time of 7% to 3-4%. But, as you will see, we also noted that the rate of decline must be dictated by the economic situation. Therefore, due to external shocks, achieving this target took longer than expected. However we are already very close to the target level. The second objective in terms of monetary policy which we set ourselves four years ago was to increase the flexibility of the exchange rate. We have moved to a floating exchange rate and consider this to have been the right decision, as the negative experiences of other exporting countries that did not switch to a floating exchange rate prove to us that this needed to be done. Within the banking sector, we set ourselves the tasks of strengthening supervision and withdrawing from the market of weak players. Unfortunately, accumulated problems in the banking sector turned out to be more serious than was assumed four years ago. And this situation has only been aggravated by crisis. The process of cleaning up the banking sector is not yet complete and, according to our estimates, will take another 2-3 years. Strengthening supervision will require us to restructure internal organisation significantly – a process we are currently undergoing. Four years ago we decided to establish a mega-regulator. We were handed responsibility for the regulation and supervision across all sectors of the financial market, numbering 20 thousand supervised units.

This will come to the fore over the course of the next five years. Creating conditions for development involves: introducing a system of individual pension capital – essentially a voluntary system for individuals; developing non-bank financing and the bond market; developing the capital market – in essence, creating long-term money for the country. At the moment we don’t have long-term money, and so we must and will be doing everything we can to create it. Further development of the payment system will involve a smooth transfer of the salaries of public sector employees and social payments on to a card system called “Mir". To make this transfer smooth and orderly is our task for the near future. We will also be aiming to expand the acceptance of the Mir card outside of Russia. We have already begun plans and arrangements with other countries on this front. Finally, I will return to the topic of financial technology development – I have also spoken about 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  this previously. The development of financial technologies will in large part determine the specific actions to be taken by us in the coming years. This will involve active joint efforts with businesses. Legislative support is also important here, particularly in terms of remote authentication, which will make new technologies and digital technologies possible. This implies a transition to electronic document workflow in the financial market.
We have been working with DPs to ensure that they are ready both to deliver ISO 20022 in a way that promotes the benefits, and to transition smoothly and safely. Our approach includes a robust programme of assurance, consisting of: bilateral exchanges; detailed delivery readiness reporting; Senior Manager Regime (SMR) engagement and readiness attestations; testing at a participant and industry-wide level; dress rehearsals; working groups; a senior sponsors forum; and external assurance for the most significant firms. Responsibility lies with the DPs to manage and communicate with their thirdparty technology providers to ensure enhancement and testing of their systems, processes and 4/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  client facing materials. DPs are also responsible for communicating and explaining these changes to their customers and suppliers: be those other financial institutions that indirectly participate in CHAPS, corporate customers, retail customers and other third-parties. Ongoing dialogue between the DPs and their stakeholders is essential to enable the whole industry to be ready and to benefit from the changes. It is therefore crucial that there are open channels of communication between DPs (as CHAPS settlement banks) and the financial institutions, corporates and individuals to whom they provide payment services. We strongly encourage a close dialogue so that these customers understand how their CHAPS settlement bank is approaching the transitions; how the changes will impact the way they send and receive payments; and how they can provide the richer data which ISO 20022 messages can carry.

Our discussion this morning will provide information for participants to obtain guidance and have a closer look on the benefits of online banking services and IBG. In line with the development in technology and innovation, making payments electronically through online banking can reduce the cost of doing business by reducing or using resources previously used to handle cash and cheques, enabling businesses to optimize their business performance and profitability. This can be achieved through increased use of electronic payments where the cost of manual processing, including the postage fee or the cost to deposit cheques in the Cheque Deposit Machine (CDM) or at the counter of bank branch, can be saved. My point is, you can save on your petrol expenses, parking fees or even avoid being issued a ticket for illegal parking and most importantly, you will be able to save time that could be utilised to increase your business productivity. This is because online banking allows you to enjoy the convenience of banking at anytime and anywhere without the hassle of having to queue at the bank counter or hiring employees to perform daily banking activities. Among other benefits of online banking and IBG is that, it offers faster movement of funds compared to payment using cheques. For example, the transfer of funds through IBG performed before noon allows a person to receive the funds within the same day compared to cheques that will take a couple of days to three days.
Currencies of countries which, like Sweden, have a high foreign debt were most exposed. The currencies of Australia and Canada, which, like Sweden, target inflation with a flexible exchange rate, depreciated markedly last autumn; in the calmer situation since the turn of the year, these currencies have also strengthened and become more stable. Another factor in the krona’s case is that higher expectations of Sweden joining the euro area have helped push our currency closer to the value implied by economic fundamentals. In the run up to Stage Three there was also some apprehension about how the krona might be affected; after the event, this unrest tended to subside. The Riksbank’s forecast has thus proved to be on the cautious side to date. Nonetheless, I do not consider that developments warrant a revision of our long-term assessment last December, namely a gradual appreciation in terms of the TCW index to about 118 by the end of 2000. Since the publication of the December Inflation Report, interest rates in Sweden have fallen, by almost 0.15 percentage point in the case of the three-month rate and 0.4 percentage point for 10-year bonds. In that inflation expectations have not moved down as much as the nominal interest rates, the real level of interest rates has also fallen and is now historically low. The pronounced downward movement may turn out to have included some overshoot in the market, to be followed by an upward adjustment of market rates. Signs of this have been discernible in recent weeks.

Another contributory factor is probably the fall in interest expenditure. The mood among households will be crucial for private consumption’s future path. As I see it, however, there are certain grounds for fearing that even consumption will be somewhat weaker than we counted on in December, when our forecast included comparatively strong consumption activity in the coming years. While households are optimistic about their own economic situation, the view of Sweden’s economy and employment’s future development is more dismal. Poorer international economic prospects and the more pessimistic expectations of firms are liable to dampen the optimism of households and thereby private consumption. The statistics on industrial capacity utilisation continue to present a varied picture. At total level, however, we consider that in the coming two years the Swedish economy will still have some surplus capacity and this is expected to be somewhat larger than we envisaged in December. The crucial question here is the future development of households’ expectations. Continued optimism could result in sustained domestic demand that tends to offset the more subdued international trend and the weaker investment activity. Construction and property market For this Forum it may also be appropriate to say something about the situation in the construction sector. Construction activity shows a cyclical pattern, with strongly rising costs in upward phases. An upswing here may therefore entail risks of inflation. In a historical perspective, the level of construction activity in Sweden in recent years has been very low.
Prasarn Trairatvorakul: Current topics of the economy and monetary policy of the Kingdom Speech by Dr Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Japanese Chamber of Commerce Dinner Talk, Bangkok, 25 March 2013. *  *  *  Good evening, Distinguished guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, I would like to thank the Japanese Chamber of Commerce (JCC) for inviting me to give a keynote speech at this special annual event. It is my honor to be back here again for the prominent institution that has its presence in Thailand over half a century, contributing to the development in trade and investment, as well as promoting Japan-Thailand friendship through cultural exchanges and technical support. For this special evening, I would like to reflect on recent developments in the global and Thai economy, and the challenges for monetary policy going forward. First of all, let’s look back to what happened last year. In 2012, Thailand faced a series of challenges from both domestic and external fronts. The global economy was subject to the main drag from the Euro debt crisis, while uncertainties remained on the recovery process of the US and Japan. These advanced countries faced a number of structural problems which would, of course, take time to resolve. However, it was encouraging to see the overall global economy continue on a gradual recovery path, with improving outlook particularly in the US and Japan, while China and Asia remained robust.

Last year, the joint meeting between the Monetary Policy Committee and the Financial Institutions Policy Committee was first held with the purpose of sharing ideas from different perspectives. It set a stage for both committees to regularly monitor and exchange views on any systemic risk that might occur from the interconnectedness of economic and financial sectors and to form policy response, should further measures be necessary. For this year, the Bank of Thailand will continue to make sure that overall economic conditions stay safe and sound. Yet, balancing among different policy objectives to reach the ultimate goal of macroeconomic stability is even more challenging this year, given the possible risk on financial stability while the global environment is still surrounded with uncertainties. In closing, I would like to outline the key challenges faced by the Bank of Thailand this year: First, on monetary policy. Since the main goal of conducting monetary policy is to ensure sustainable economic growth, the MPC’s decision-making has always based on the risk to economic growth, inflation, as well as financial stability. This year, the challenge would be striking the right balance between economic growth and financial stability as inflationary pressure is well contained in the short run. Given buoyant domestic spending, keeping the policy interest rate too low for too long could give incentive to private sectors to borrow more. Furthermore, low interest rate will encourage depositors to switch to invest in riskier asset which could lead to the problem of asset price bubble in the future.
They have undertaken structural reforms to liberalize their economies, to increase their competitiveness and to coordinate their policies. EU efforts should concentrate in aiding and speeding the convergence process in the design of markets and institutional frameworks while minimizing the related short term costs. This would be to the mutual benefit of both the EU and the region. I would like to add that in realizing such an agenda, the policy-makers need to pay special attention to the time dimension. Reforms that need to be made should be made in time. Furthermore, such reforms have to be made with the whole of the EU project in mind. Individual countries have much work to do, but a lasting solution to the challenges will be a comprehensive reform that looks beyond specific borders and aims at raising the competitiveness and sustainability of the EU as a whole. Europe in the future Ladies and gentleman, to conclude my address allow me to restate my belief in the future of Europe. A brief glimpse at some figures would illustrate this point. EU comprises roughly 7% of world population but accounts for a quarter of global GDP. It has a mature social and economic model, which in spite of long-term challenges remains a viable paradigm of economic development. The external position of both EU and Eurozone is broadly balanced, with current account deficits of less than 1% of GDP.

It would also shift the composition of intra-regional trade from intermediate inputs for the production of goods for final demand to the traditional markets, to a more balanced composition with increased share to meet final demand within Asia. First, as the emerging economies, in particular Asia, gain importance as growth centres, the cumulative markets of Asia as export destinations will expand over time. The rapidly rising Asian middle income class will increase final demand for goods and services. Second, Asia can leverage on its immense diversity as a source of economic complementarities. The “Flying Geese Model” illustrates how Asia had, in the past, harness the diversity of the. Going forward, similar emphasis can be adapted beyond merely for the production of goods for final demand outside Asia, and draw on the different comparative advantages of the Asian economies. Financial integration as a third strategy The third strategy is the promotion of deeper financial integration. This is important for further advancing the economic development of the region. Financial integration is generally associated with capital mobility and refers to the extent to which an economy's financial system is interconnected with other financial markets. A fully integrated financial system will be one in which potential market participants, both in the banking sector and financial markets, adopt a single set of rules, have equal access and are treated equally.
In Malaysia, both the Federal Government and the central bank 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  issued long and short term papers that formed the basis for the creation of a vibrant Islamic money market and a deep and sophisticated sukuk market. Another lesson that can be learnt is that central bank can play a catalytic role in promoting a new market. Central banks have the capacity to issue Shariah compliant money market instruments to enable investment in short term papers. It could assist in the liquidity management of Islamic banks. It also gives an opportunity for the public at large to invest in short term Shariah-compliant papers. At the same time, conventional investors have an opportunity to invest in a new asset class. Usage of Waqf. Another interesting area for Islamic finance and this applies, not only to new entrants but also established finance jurisdictions, is the innovative use of waqf in areas underserved by the present financial system. The endowment received from waqf, together with the revenue generated from the waqf properties can assist in the socio-economic uplift of the community. Utilisation of waqf by Islamic microfinance institutions can potentially create more options in offering interest-free financing in the economy. Islamic financial institutions and corporate organisations can also consider including waqf as part of their corporate social responsibility programmes for more suitable solutions that have profound impact over the long term, particularly in education.

15 Clerc, L., A. Giovannini, S. Langfield, T. Peltonen, R. Portes, and M. Scheicher (2016), “Indirect contagion: the  policy problem”, ESRB Occasional Paper no. 9. 16 European Systemic Risk Board (2014), “Flagship report on macroprudential policy in the banking sector”, March;  and European Systemic Risk Board (2014), “Handbook on operationalising macroprudential policy in the banking sector”, March. 4/4  BIS Central Banker's Speeches
But there are at last signs that a recovery may be gaining traction. In the United Kingdom, output rose by a little more than 1% in the first half of the year. And business surveys point to something closer to 2% for the second half of this year, somewhat faster than the economy’s historical average rate of expansion. That is good news. But can we expect it to be sustained? Or is there a danger that it will prove short-lived? That is the first issue I want to address this morning. A good place to start is by looking backwards, for if we understand the past, then there is surely a better chance of getting future prospects right. Why, then, was the growth performance shown in Chart 1 so disappointing? Back in the summer of 2010, our expectation was that demand growth would be supported by a steady improvement in credit conditions and a gradual decline in uncertainty. That would foster both an increase in consumer spending as the saving rate fell back from post-crisis highs and a recovery in business investment. Moreover, we expected net trade to provide a significant stimulus, as global activity continued to recover and the 25% depreciation in sterling since the beginning of the crisis worked its magic. That was not quite how it worked out, of course. Chart 2 shows the cumulative contributions of the main expenditure components to growth since the middle of 2010.

7 Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams, Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound  on Interest Rates, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series, May 2019. 8 Richard H. Clarida, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, The Federal Reserve’s 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools and Communications Practices , speech delivered at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, April 9, 2019. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches