This course reflects a significant reduction in the CPIEFE in 2017, owing to different elements. On one hand, the exchange rate trajectory will continue to contribute to reduce imported goods inflation. On the other hand, beyond the effects of comparison basis related to the stamp tax, services inflation is expected to continue to decrease gradually, especially because the reduced inflation at the end of 2016 will affect indexed prices during the early part of 2017. This, in a context where medium-term inflationary pressures are bounded, and where capacity gaps will continue to exist during the entire projection horizon. Meanwhile, energy and foods inflation is expected to rise, partly offsetting the effects of the aforementioned elements on headline inflation (figure 12). Beyond the presence of higher risks, this forecast assumes that the external impulse facing the Chilean economy will be as estimated in September. In particular, external financial conditions will be less favorable, but better terms of trade are expected. The baseline scenario projects a copper price of $ and $ per pound in 2017 and 2018, respectively, in line with forecasts by market analysts and with an environment marked by an appreciated dollar and higher interest rates. The oil price, in turn, is revised slightly upward 4 / 19  BIS central bankers' speeches  from September, to an average of 55 dollars per barrel in 2017–2018. Growth projections for the world and our trading partners show no changes on aggregate and point to some acceleration in 2017 and 2018 (table 2).

Moreover, the utilization of foodstuff in the bio-fuels production combined with the unfavorable weather conditions last year has led to further increases in commodity prices. Despite economic slowdown expectations in developed countries, the surge in commodity prices has continued in 2008 and the oil prices reached USD 140 per barrel. On the other hand, the sub-prime mortgage crisis that has started in the U.S. in mid 2007 has grown to a level that threatens the stability of financial system in many countries. The growth expectations were scaled back significantly. The turbulence might also have negative implications on the Turkish economy. Nevertheless, economic indicators show that the Turkish economy’s resistant to fluctuations in global markets has increased substantially, compared to the previous episodes of turbulences. The current relative resilience is an outcome of the successfully and decisively implemented macroeconomic policies since 2001 together with comprehensive structural reforms. Still, we are facing challenges now. The year-on-year consumer price inflation climbed to double-digit levels in May and it will probably remain high till the last quarter of this year and then decline gradually. Moreover, the growth rate of the GDP stood at 4.5% in 2007, as compared to 2001-2006 period, which was 7.2% on the average. Dear Guests, Turkey has several comparative advantages compared to many of its counterparts that can support high growth rates in the medium term. The first one is the demographic structure. Turkey has a young and skilled population that is one of the most important ingredients of economic growth.