samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
One consistent source of strength for the city has been immigration. Over this period, New York City benefited from a sizable influx of immigrants, which more than offset out-migration in many neighborhoods. To illustrate this, let’s take a look at one such neighborhood in Brooklyn, Sunset Park, that was losing residents to the suburbs in the 1960s and 1970s. As property values fell, new migrants from Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Central America moved in. By 1990, Hispanics comprised about half of all Sunset Park residents. These new residents developed a thriving community, which boosted property values. There was also an influx of Chinese residents, and part of Sunset Park has come to be known as Brooklyn’s Chinatown. There are many other examples where immigrants revitalized whole neighborhoods: Russian and Ukrainian immigrants in Brighton Beach; Chinese and Korean immigrants in Flushing; and Indian immigrants in Jackson Heights, just to name a few. So, has it been all good news for New York City in recent years? Certainly not. Many challenges remain. One by-product of a strong economy and real estate market has been a decline in housing affordability, and an increase in homelessness. It is estimated that there are over 60,000 homeless people in New York City today—almost double the number from 10 years ago and more than four times as high as in the early 1980s. Moreover, poverty rates remain high in many parts of the city, and the education system can certainly be improved.

Constantinos Herodotou: Speech - visit Ms Lagarde Speech by Mr Constantinos Herodotou, Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, during Ms Lagarde visit to Cyprus, Nicosia, 30 March 2022. *** It is such an honour for me to welcome to Cyprus a prominent European citizen. A reputable lawyer, a successful policy maker both during her term as a finance minister, as well as while being head of the IMF and the ECB. A great leader who during a turbulent time of serious and consecutive crises is steering us towards a better European Union, a more prosperous Eurozone and a more stable Eurosystem. We welcome today the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde. I would like to express to you, dear President my sincere gratitude for accepting my invitation to visit Cyprus. You visit our island as the head of the European Central Bank, is something that bears a twofold significance. Firstly, it emphasizes that in the effort to overcome the common challenges we face, all European countries stand together and united. We are working in a coordinated manner, in close collaboration and aware of the difficulties we encounter, both large and small countries, as one European family. Secondly, it is a recognition of the active role of Cyprus - and allow me to say the Central Bank of Cyprus in particular – in contributing to the shaping of the common European monetary strategy. And this is an acknowledgment that fills us with great satisfaction.
Figure 10 Oil price (*)  Terms of trade  (dollars per barrel)  (annual change, percent)  80  80 12  70  70  60  50  10  8  8  17  Mar'18 MP Report6  Jun'18 MP Report  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  40 -4  -4  50  40  12  10  6  60  Dec'17 MP Report  18  13  (*) Simple average of the prices per barrel of Brent and WTI oil. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Bloomberg. 12  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  Figure 11 Inflation indicators (*) (annual change, percent)  7  7  6  6  5  5  Services  4  4  3  CPI  2 1  CPIEFE  0  3 2 1 0  -1  Bienes  -2 -3  -1 -2 -3  13  14  15  16  17  18  (*) As from January 2014 the new indexes with annual base 2013=100 are used, so they are not strictly comparable with earlier figures. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE).

We have had examples of this in Sweden and it could also happen in some other countries. How can euro adopters prepare public finances for asymmetric shocks? This was a major issue in the Swedish debate ahead of the euro referendum. Despite the fact that there had been reforms in the public-finance framework in Sweden in the 1990s, the Riksbank and others argued that more should be done before joining the euro area. 2  BIS Review 53/2003  Essentially two things are required: First, there is a need for sufficient margins in the public finances. In practice, this means that debt levels should not be too high. If the economy enters a downturn that does not affect the rest of the euro area to the same extent, it is important that there is scope to conduct more expansionary policy. If the scope is there, one can be reasonably sure that it will be used. It is more difficult to handle the second, opposite situation - upturns and over-heating tendencies. What is then required is a framework that stimulates or even forces political decision-makers to act in time and to take decisions that might be difficult in the short run but that are correct in a longer perspective. Here we drew some inspiration from our monetary policy set-up. Fiscal policy could be guided by clear targets that are defined in terms of countries’ output gaps. Alternatively, national inflation targets could be introduced.
The above-stated situation served to test the efficiency of the measures on securing liquidity. On the other hand, they promoted the spirit of solidarity and fair competition among banks. Another important aspect of our work was the contribution in the framework of Albania’s approximation to the European Union. In 2015, we intensified the cooperation with the European Central Bank, ESCB central banks, and other European bodies dealing with financial regulations of the Union, notably the cooperation agreement with the European Supervisory Authority. We strengthened, at the same intensity, the cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Bank for International Settlements, and regional central banks. The Bank of Albania has also undertaken concrete steps about the development of payment systems. The National Committee on Payment Systems was established in October 2015. This is an inter-institutional committee that will contribute to enhancing the security, stability and efficiency of the national payment systems in Albania. The Law on Savings and Loan Associations (SLAs) has been drafted and is pending approval by the Parliament. This law regulates the licensing, supervision and activity of the SLAs in compliance with the best standards. In close collaboration with the Albanian Deposit Insurance Agency, amendments to the Law on Deposits Insurance have been drafted. These amendments consist in new norms addressing the SLAs and include legal persons in the insurance deposits scheme. The past year was successful also regarding the information technology. Although such projects are less visible to the public, they are of key importance.

7  The international reform effort following the crisis has of course been focused precisely on reinforcing resilience and enabling resolution of banks, particularly globally systemic firms, to ensure a much safer channel of cross border bank finance. 8 Coeure (2014) 9 The speed of growth can itself be a risk which is not covered here. For example, the FPC has highlighted that the speed of credit growth in China (both inside and outside the formal banking sector) as a risk to global financial stability. See also Adrian (2017). 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  However, outflow of markets based finance particularly in fixed income have played a role in crisis. 11  there is evidence that asset managers may now behave more pro-cyclically (Chart 3). 10  And  So there are  reasons, for those charged with thinking about ‘what might happen’, to question whether the past remains a good guide to the future. Funds now encompass a broader spectrum of investors and invest in a much broader range of markets and products. The bulk of flows into funds since the crisis have been into funds invested in less liquid debt instruments and, due to the search for yield, in the riskier parts of the market. In this respect, given market news in recent days, it is worth noting the selling of volatility by asset managers – including it would seem to retail investors. The liquidity risk is amplified by a number of factors.
To make these kind of situations more predictable, and also more easy to resolve, it would be desirable to strengthen the existing framework with a final objective to have comprehensive framework for the restructuring of sovereign debt. Technical assistance The IMF has unique competence through its ability to combine scientific knowledge and institutional skills with longstanding experience of work in individual countries. This competence often applies to 'narrow' areas that a particular country (normally) only seldom requires help with. This includes advice and support regarding how to build up a functioning supervisory authority or how to manage a banking crisis. It is crucial to make the utmost use of this competence. The IMF has untapped potential What I have said so far, that the Fund’s mandate and main instruments for achieving it are essentially appropriate, is hardly controversial. Most people agree on this in theory. In practice, however, it is  2  BIS Review 43/2005  more difficult. When it comes to the crunch, we member countries do not always allow the IMF to effectively carry out the functions that we have given it a mandate to perform. In my opinion, the IMF could play a more important role than it does today. But that is not principally due to its mandate and instruments as such but because we as members do not allow it to fulfil its potential. Wherein lies the untapped potential? In which of the IMF's main fields could the organisation play an even stronger part?

In a longer perspective, openness can also be vital to create a political pressure for change in individual countries. In the same way, openness with regard to current imbalances lends support to change in different countries and for considerations in the financial markets. I myself would very much like to see more transparent application and assignment procedures for posts at all levels within the IMF. The best candidate should get the job regardless of the applicant’s country of origin. 2. For the IMF to have enough weight, it is necessary that the key issues for the world economy really are discussed at the IMF’s table and not at others. Those who wishes to strengthen the IMF – and are serious about it – could therefore not create new forums outside the IMF with a view to discussing matters that fall within the IMF’s mandate. If this is done, the organisation will, in practice, be undermined. 3. One way of reducing the need for creating new fora, and, at the same time, in a pragmatic way approach issues of representation, would be to work more actively in the Executive Board with various (small) committees/subcommittees (similar to those in many national parliaments and in the Executive Board at the World Bank).
But we have seen time and again how quickly responsible can turn to reckless, creating risks that ultimately derail the economy. Allow me to explain why this matters to everyone from Land’s End to John O’Groats, even those who do not own homes. History shows that the British people do everything they can to pay their mortgages. That means cutting back deeply on expenditures when the unexpected happens. If a lot of people are highly indebted, that could tip the economy into recession. Recessions that follow periods of rapid credit growth tend to be deeper and longer lasting. Since we start from a vulnerable position, we need to be especially careful. To insure today against such risks in the future, the Bank has introduced both new affordability tests for borrowers and a cap on the proportion of any lender’s new residential mortgages at high multiples of borrowers’ incomes. By acting early, the Bank can reduce the need for more drastic action later on. And by acting as we have, we can encourage a broadening of the housing market recovery. We recognise that there are large differences in housing markets across the UK. Around one in five new London mortgages are extended at or above 4.5 times borrower income, compared to one in ten across the UK as a whole, and one in twenty in Scotland. Capping the riskiest borrowing means that for every high ratio mortgage six must be extended at lower ratios.

All in all, the introduction of the euro has been a very positive development for the international monetary system in general, and for Switzerland in particular. We benefit from the greater transparency offered by the euro and the lower transaction costs made possible by its creation. Perhaps for the first time in history, we are surrounded by an area that shares the same monetary policy objectives as we do, namely price stability. This explains to a large extent why the Swiss franc/euro exchange rate has been relatively stable over the past five years. But the presence of a single European currency has per se also shielded third currencies - like the Swiss franc - from too much volatility in the case of dollar turbulence. At the same time, we keep the trump card of an independent monetary policy that enables us to respond very rapidly to the specific needs of the Swiss economy. Between 2001 and 2003, we have thus lowered interest rates more quickly and more decisively than the ECB. Once economic activity showed signs of recovery, we were able to gradually shift to a less expansionary stance, again well  4  BIS Review 72/2004  before any similar move by the ECB. With inflation around the one percent mark, we enjoy price stability and our interest rates lie clearly below corresponding rates in the eurozone. Thanks to enhanced stability in Europe with the introduction of the euro, a two headed international monetary system is good news for small countries.
Uncertainties regarding the lagged effects of the strong monetary stimulus pose upside risks on both domestic and global economic activity. Given that the recovery in domestic demand has been relatively robust, a faster than envisaged recovery in external demand could lead to a rapid narrowing in the idle capacity, which, coupled with cost push pressures, may delay the attainment of the medium-term inflation targets. In this respect, should the recovery in economic activity turn out to be faster than expected, the monetary tightening implied in the baseline scenario may be implemented sooner than envisaged. Prospects regarding the pace of growth in developing economies, especially in China and India, have been posing upside risks regarding oil and other commodity prices. The increasing share of these economies in world demand has been creating additional pressures on commodity prices. I would like to emphasize that if commodity prices rise faster than expected in the forthcoming period and delay the disinflation, then we, as the Central Bank, may implement the monetary tightening described in the baseline scenario sooner than envisaged in order to eliminate the risks of deteriorating price setting behavior. The Central Bank will continue to monitor fiscal policy developments closely while formulating monetary policy strategy. Since the second half of 2009, economic activity has been stronger than envisaged in the Medium Term Program, leading to a better than expected performance in budget revenues.

The fall in the last quarter of 2010 would reflect the base effects caused by the indirect tax hikes and the sharp increases in food prices that occurred during the last quarter of 2009. Similarly, the impact of the tax hikes, which added around 1.9 percentage points to headline inflation in the first quarter of 2010, would largely disappear during January and February of 2011. Accordingly, inflation would fall to 8.4 percent at end-2010, and display a significant drop during the first quarter of 2011, converging to levels consistent with the targets (Table 3). Afterwards, with the transmission of the lagged impact of the envisaged monetary tightening, inflation is expected to further decline and stabilize at around 5 percent over the medium term. The projection that inflation would remain at elevated levels – albeit temporarily – over the forthcoming period, highlights the importance of expectations management. As of April, medium-term inflation expectations are significantly above the revised inflation forecasts (Table 3). In this respect, it is critical that economic agents, with an awareness of temporary factors, focus on medium-term inflation trends, and therefore, take the inflation targets as a benchmark for their pricing plans and contracts. At this point, I would like to emphasize once more that any new data or information regarding the inflation outlook may lead to a change in the monetary policy stance. Therefore, I would like to particularly highlight that assumptions regarding future policy rates underlying the inflation forecast should not be perceived as a commitment on behalf of the CBT. 4.
The application of artificial intelligence and the use of large databases with real-time information (Big Data) may also provide for significant efficiency gains in terms of both business activity and regulatory compliance. 9/11  Similarly, the use of new technologies in the financial sector may offer advantages to society in that it reduces intermediation costs, improves households’ and SMEs’ access to finance and facilitates financial inclusion (see Chart 8). Financial disintermediation Another factor making the environment in which credit institutions operate more competitive is the advance of financial disintermediation. In Spain, as in countries such as Germany and Italy, the bulk of non-financial corporations’ borrowing has traditionally come from bank loans. However, in other countries, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, capital markets play a much bigger role in corporate finance. There is no consensus as to the optimal financing structure to best ensure financial stability and economic growth. On the one hand, it is true that the interaction between companies and banks involves the handling of non-public information about companies that may facilitate their access to bank lending at lower cost. On the other hand, having liquid and efficient financial markets makes it possible to channel households’ savings into long-term projects with a larger share of finance in the form of capital. Also, although the experience of the recent international crisis has taught us that an appropriate diversification of companies’ sources of financing reduces their vulnerability to shocks affecting bank lending channels, there is also evidence that capital markets are more procyclical.

Furthermore, given the nature of the crisis, the restrictive measures and the movement limitation, part of the population faced a forced reduction of the consumption, primarily the consumption of different services, which is characteristic for persons with higher income and with greater capacity and propensity to save. Third, given that all future economic flows are determined by the extremely uncertain epidemiological curve, in such an environment, the precaution motive has a great role in the depositors' behavior. The European Commission surveys for both our country and for the countries of the Western Balkans also show that the respondents' perceptions in 2020 and in 2021 are in favor of the view that due to the economic situation in this period, savings are more favorable decision, compared to recent years. At the same time, the surveys of our Statistical Office show a decrease in the utilization of savings as a source of income during 2020. What has been happening to the savings in the banking system in our country from the beginning of the pandemic onwards? The deposit potential is increasing with a relatively solid intensity of over 8% on an annual basis, whereby the dynamics of increase is very similar to that of the period 2018 - 2019. Such dynamics does not resemble a bit the developments during the global financial crisis, when in a short time the deposit growth slowed down, which from around 20%, reduced to around 7% on an annual level.
In addition, it also includes the recommendations that, in the Banco de España's view, it would be desirable to implement, to tackle these challenges. Indeed, such an interaction of research and policy is even more pressing in the current juncture, characterised as it is by a highly uncertain context and the need to address important structural challenges, which I will elaborate on next. Let me now comment briefly on the main challenges that lie ahead for the Spanish economy, which are also the backbone of the programme of this conference. As we all know, the Spanish economy was one of those most severely hit by the effects of the pandemic. And the recovery after the most acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has been tempered by supply chain disruptions and, in the second half of 2021, by higher energy commodity prices, which were further exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February this year. Overall, in 2022 Q1, GDP in Spain was still 3.3 pp below its prepandemic level, while in the euro area it stood 0.5 pp above its pre-crisis mark. According to our latest projections, published last June, in the absence of any new shocks or an escalation of the war in Ukraine, the Spanish economy is projected to follow a gradual recovery path – one that could reach pre-pandemic GDP levels in the final stretch of 2023. That said, these projections are surrounded by extraordinarily high uncertainty, in particular related to developments in the war in Ukraine.

07.07.2022  1st Banco de España Conference on the Spanish Economy – welcome address Banco de España Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Good morning and welcome to the First Banco de España Conference on the Spanish Economy. Let me announce in advance that our intention is for this conference to take place on an annual basis and for it to be our flagship conference in relation to the Spanish economy. Let me first elaborate on the motivation behind the organisation of this conference and I will then focus briefly on the topics that have been chosen for discussion this year. The main aim of this conference is to bring together leading scholars and policymakers to discuss frontier research on the challenges facing our economy and the policy options to address them. The rationale for doing this is our understanding of the importance of the interaction between economic policy and applied research as a crucial tool to support the design and development of economic policies, as well as the evaluation of their effects. Indeed, high-quality research is an indispensable tool for advising on and adopting sound policymaking decisions. This is generally well understood in the central banking community, where research produced by central banks plays an important role in policymaking and the interaction with the academic community is usually very strong. At the Banco de España this is indeed the case, including first by promoting research within the institution. This is something we have tried to further enhance during the last years.