samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
News conference  Berne, 15 June 2017 Andréa M. Maechler  Introductory remarks by Andréa M. Maechler  I will begin by reviewing the situation on the international financial markets. I will then address some developments on the Swiss money and foreign exchange markets – specifically the establishment of SARON as the leading reference rate for interest rate derivatives and the adoption of a global code of conduct for foreign exchange market transactions. Situation on the financial markets  Let me start with developments on the international financial markets. Overall, positive sentiment has continued to prevail since the beginning of the year. Economic conditions have provided favourable momentum, with data pointing to ongoing recovery in both Europe and the US. Furthermore, companies on both sides of the Atlantic reported solid profits in the first quarter. The principal beneficiaries of these developments have been the equity markets, both in the advanced and the emerging economies (cf. chart 1). Various major equity indices have repeatedly recorded historical highs in the year-to-date period. While the SMI has not yet hit its historical high, it too made substantial gains and recently closed up 8% on the beginning of the year. Heightened political uncertainty has had no lasting effects on the equity markets. This assertion is borne out in risk perception metrics. Volatility derived from option prices (implied volatility) once again fell substantially. On the US equity market, volatility approached historical lows at times in May and June (cf. chart 2).

Heightened political uncertainty has, however, occasionally left its mark on the bond and foreign exchange markets. For instance, demand for highly rated government bonds has remained strong since the start of the year. In addition, despite largely positive economic data, the inflation outlook for the major advanced economies is still muted. As a result, yields on highly rated government bonds have changed only marginally since the beginning of 2017  Page 1/5  Berne, 15 June 2017 Andréa M. Maechler  News conference  and have remained low (cf. chart 3). In Switzerland, too, the yield on ten-year Confederation bonds has remained essentially unchanged. On the foreign exchange market, the Swiss franc experienced repeated episodes of upward pressure as a result of heightened political uncertainty in Europe. The elections in the Netherlands and France, as well as the UK’s upcoming Brexit negotiations with the EU, generated increased demand for currencies considered particularly safe by investors. After the presidential election in France, the euro strengthened and pressure on the Swiss franc subsided. Since the beginning of the year, the euro has gained around 3%. The Swiss franc is now trading close to where it was at the start of the year, and thus remains significantly overvalued. Despite ongoing normalisation of monetary policy in the US, the dollar has depreciated roughly 5%. Establishment of SARON as reference rate for interest rate derivatives  Let me now turn to innovations on the Swiss money market.
In order for the Riksbank’s legitimacy to be maintained, it is required that we show great openness on the grounds on which the monetary policy decisions are made. The conceptual framework and the decision-making rules that are guiding the monetary policy decisions make up the basic framework for our communications with the surrounding world. We describe how we conduct monetary policy in the inflation reports, minutes and speeches. However skilful we are, we cannot guarantee that we will always meet the target. The economic correlations change and unexpected events take place. We must therefore be evaluated on the basis of the quality of the assessments of growth and inflation that have served as the basis for the monetary policy decisions and the balance struck when we have arrived at decisions. It is therefore very important that we always state when we depart from the main rule I have described and the reasons for the departures. In this way, we will also avoid misunderstandings about our intentions. A high degree of transparency sharpens and improves the internal analysis as well since we are then exposed to continual review by experts outside the Riksbank in the academic world and in the financial markets at home and abroad. Clarity about the grounds on which we make our decisions creates good conditions for players in the financial markets to assess how the repo rate will develop in future.

Secondly, it is necessary that central government finances continue to be in surplus in the next 10-15 years, which can be used for amortisation. A lighter debt burden creates scope for future increases in costs. The government’s expenditure ceiling and balance targets aim at creating such space. At present, the prospects for growth in the economy are so good that the surplus in central government finances is expected to be sufficient to amortise central government debt at a rapid rate and to reduce income tax. The challenge lies in maintaining this ambition over a long period. It is therefore important that economic policy is focused on creating the conditions for growth. In this perspective, it would in my opinion be unfortunate to take decisions on a shortening of working hours since it would worsen the prospects for growth by reducing the supply of labour. By taking responsibility for stable prices and financial stability, the Riksbank can make a contribution to creating favourable conditions for long-term good and even growth. 1  BIS Review 98/2000  Stable inflationary prospects and free resources make possible low interest rates The strong upswing that we are now experiencing has been supported by the Riksbank being able to keep the interest rate at a relatively low level due to low inflationary pressure. Despite us being ahead of Europe in the cycle, we have an instrumental rate which is one per cent lower than in the euro area.
John C Williams: Shifting gears - rebalance and realignment in the economy Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Fixed Income Analysts Society, New York City, 19 January 2023. ***  As prepared for delivery Albert Einstein famously said, "Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving." While charming advice to live by, it is also particularly salient when it comes to the rebalancing and movement taking place in the U.S. economy today. In my remarks this evening, I'm going to discuss inflation, the continued imbalances between supply and demand, and the effects that monetary policy is having on different sectors of the economy. I'll share what this means for the economic outlook in the United States, and how the Federal Reserve's policy actions support our bedrock commitment to price stability. Before I do that, I want to thank the Fixed Income Analysts Society for putting together this wonderful program. It's great to stay local, even if it means dodging rush hour traffic in Midtown. Although times like these make me wonder if I should take Einstein's bike riding advice more literally! I should also give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System.

You can think of monetary policy as a large gear that is connected to smaller gears representing different sectors of the economy. But not all gears move at the same pace. Some turn more quickly, while others are slower, meaning they experience longer lags between policy actions and effects. These effects of monetary policy are showing up in prices at different speeds. For example, the prices of globally traded commodities have already declined and are now well below levels we saw earlier last year. This reflects in part the effects of lower demand resulting from tighter monetary policy here and abroad. Similarly, prices for many goods have started to plateau or even decline, reflecting weaker demand, lower import costs, and an easing of global supply disruptions that developed during the pandemic. For example, prices of used cars-a big driver of inflation during the first year of the pandemic-have been retreating toward more normal levels over the past few months. The combination of the general rotation of demand from goods to services and the effects of higher interest rates on demand for goods should contribute to further downward pressure on the prices of many goods this year. 2/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  One gear that is moving at a far slower pace is the price of non-energy services. The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand in this sector continues to contribute to inflationary pressures. But there is some good news on this front as well.
Each member has one vote10 (in the event of a tie, the Chair has the casting vote) and decisions are generally taken by simple majority, except for those relating to the adoption of regulations implementing the tasks conferred on the ECB, which are taken by qualified majority. All representatives on the Supervisory Board have a duty to act in the interests of the Union as a whole and not in those of the country or authority they represent. The Supervisory Board proposes draft supervisory decisions to the Governing Council of the ECB, which is ultimately responsible for adopting them.11 To this end, a “non-objection” procedure has been established, under which the Governing Council may approve or object to (within a maximum period of ten days) the proposals submitted by the Supervisory Board, but may under no circumstance modify them.12 Where the Governing Council objects to a 8  As noted in Recital 14 of the SSM Regulation, capital buffers to ensure that credit institutions accumulate, during periods of economic growth, a sufficient capital base to absorb losses in stressed periods, specific systemic institution buffers, and other measures aimed at addressing systemic or macroprudential risk are key prudential tools. 9  In both cases, the appointment requires the approval of the European Parliament. By contrast, the appointment of the Chair, the Vice-Chair or the other members of the ECB’s Executive Board only require the non-binding opinion of the European Parliament (Article 26(3) of the SSM Regulation).

In this connection, the Governing Council of the Banco de España currently comprises, aside from the Deputy Governor and myself, six elected members and two ex officio members. The latter sit on the council by virtue of their position, namely: the Vice-Chair of the CNMV and the General Secretary of the Treasury and International Financing.11 It has traditionally been argued that the ex officio members allow for enhanced coordination across the country’s various economic and financial authorities. However, such coordination was boosted recently via the creation in 2019 of AMCESFI, the new macroprudential authority, in which the three sectoral supervisors and the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation participate. Against this background, and in the interest of increasing the institution’s independence, it might be desirable for the ex officio members to attend the meetings of the Governing Council of the Banco de España in a non-voting capacity, and for the Banco de España representative at the CNMV to do likewise. 5 Financial supervision arrangements in Spain I would also like to underscore that, precisely after redressing a significant shortcoming detected in the Spanish financial supervisory system by creating a Spanish macroprudential authority, I believe that it is now time to start reflecting deeply on the financial supervisory model existing in Spain.12 This would serve to align it with international best practices and adapt it to the challenges we currently face.
We look to further concerted actions by deal parties to warrant smooth oil price dynamics over the forecast horizon. Based on their actual movements since the year start, we have upgraded the average annual Urals crude price in our baseline scenario from $ to $ per barrel in 2019 and from $ to $ per barrel in 2020. We retain our conservative assumptions for 2021 whereby the oil price is expected to reach $ per barrel. Key balance of payments figures in the baseline scenario have also been adjusted to oil price movements and the expected dynamics of the global economy. This year’s current account balance is estimated to total $ billion (approx. 6% of GDP) and drop subsequently to $ billion (approx. 3% of GDP) in 2021. This is attributed to downward oil price trends and expanding imports as economic growth accelerates. The private sector’s financial account balance in 2019 is set to amount to approx. $ billion (3% of GDP). Financial transactions of private sector balance already reached $ billion in the first five months of the year. We expect it to drop substantially in the second half of the year 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  compared to both the past year’s last six months and the first six months of this year. The main reasons behind this outlook are as follows. First, it comes as a reflection of the seasonality which is typical of balance of payments figures.

(2) Korean Rep. and Iceland with last available data for 2014. (3) Maximum means 90th percentile. Source: Central Bank of Chile based on SBIF and IMF data. Figure 17 Banks with CAR equal to or higher than 10% under stress scenario (*) (percent of system's assets)  100  100  80  80  60  60  40  40  20  20  0  0 11  12  13  14  15  16  (*) Six-month figures. Results of stress tests presented in Financial Stability Reports. Source: Central Bank of Chile based on SBIF data. BIS central bankers’ speeches  17
Their relationships with sponsor banks are sometimes very ambiguous. There may be a gap between the legal commitments taken by the banks through liquidity support and credit enhancements, and the “true” level of responsibility they felt obliged to take to protect their reputation. This conjunction of complexity and fragility may have been too much for the system to bear. So it is worth to pause and ask ourselves whether we can eliminate those vulnerabilities and still keep the benefits associated with securitization, especially in terms of financial innovation. One good starting point is to look at the economic and financial rationale for securitization. Securitization is meant to perform two functions: the first, and most "advertised" in recent years, is to allocate and distribute risks, hopefully to those agents and investors best equipped and most willing – to carry it. The "slicing and tranching" process allowed banks to offload credit risk from their balance sheets and transfer it to other financial investors. But, historically, securitization is borne out of the more simple desire to shortcut banking intermediation by using markets to directly match the needs of lenders and borrowers. Since both have different liquidity preferences, this usually involves the issuance of tradable – i.e. liquid-securities which can be sold to the ultimate investors. Thus, a well functioning securitized system would meet two characteristics: (1) allow for a permanent reallocation of risk between market participants according to their preferences, expectations and risk aversion; and (2) make liquidity (market liquidity) permanently available throughout the system.

We have now concluded that there is not normally reason to indicate prior to the monetary policy meetings in speeches and press releases how our views of the repo rate path have changed. Our assessment is that it is enough to signal our intentions clearly in connection with the seven monetary policy meetings held every year. In connection with three of these meetings we will publish our own forecast for the future repo rate, and our Monetary Policy Report will show clearly why we have chosen this particular path. On the other four occasions we will make a qualitative assessment of how the most recently published interest rate forecast relates to the new information received. Even if the interest rate path forecast is only a forecast and not a promise, a central bank can hardly be clearer than this with regard to its views on economic developments and the consequences for the interest rate. There may also in exceptional cases be justification for some signalling between two monetary policy meetings. If, for instance, something occurs to radically alter the economic situation, while there is a long time until the next meeting, it may be necessary to make a comment in order to avoid the risk of unnecessary uncertainty in the financial markets. It should then be clear whether the entire Executive Board supports this view or whether it is the opinion of an individual member.
Nevertheless, the FOMC is prepared to adjust the details of its approach to policy normalization in light of economic and financial developments and the Desk stands ready to innovate in order to efficiently and effectively implement policy consistent with the Committee’s directive. Thank you. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches

A rapid and pronounced change in the interest rate may be appropriate in cases where there is a risk that inflation may deviate considerably from the target over a longer period, or where heightening turbulence in financial markets or a cost- push shock resulting from wage negotiations indicates that confidence in monetary policy is in jeopardy. Financial market confidence in the inflation target provides Norges Bank with greater scope for promoting stability in output and employment through monetary policy. This scope will also increase as the inflation target is incorporated as an anchor for wage formation. We have also indicated that in the event of runaway overall credit growth and a sharp rise in property and house prices as well as equity prices, it may be necessary to reassess the time horizon. It would in general have been possible to achieve the inflation target at a horizon shorter than two years by changing the interest rate more rapidly and more markedly. This might, however, have a greater impact on output and employment. BIS Review 53/2003  1  Norges Bank has based its monetary policy on flexible inflation targeting, where variability in output, employment and inflation are given weight. How do changes in the interest rate affect the economy? Norges Bank’s monetary policy instrument is the key rate. Norges Bank’s key rate affects short-term money market rates, and expectations concerning future developments in the key rate are decisive for banks’ deposit and lending rates and bond yields.
I am still waiting for someone to offer a plausible analysis of how the change of the exchange rate regime will boost economic growth. Except naive statements in the media, so far no one has offered such an analysis. In the economic literature, it has long been concluded that the exchange rate regime does not affect economic growth. Do you think that Macedonia has an efficient economic model and exchange rate regime if it records economic growth rates which do not exceed 3–4 percent, and everybody agrees that it is necessary to have growth of over 8 percent? It is very naive to link economic growth only with the exchange rate regime. Economic growth is a very complex phenomenon that depends on about a hundred of factors. Competitiveness of an economy does not depend only on the exchange rate. Take the global competitiveness index of the World Economic Forum. It takes into account more than one hundred indicators for measuring the competitiveness of countries. If someone believes that Macedonia will realize an 8 percent growth rate only if the exchange rate regime is changed, I am left speechless. The change in the exchange rate is used as an instrument for improving the competitiveness only when the country has failed to improve other factors and there is no other choice.

EBRD’s involvement in two very important initiatives, namely the Local Currency and Local Capital Market Initiative and the Vienna Initiative, has been essential for Romania and the region. I am closely following the evolution of the EBRD. I believe that it finds itself at a cross-road, as the world has been changing rapidly due to the remarkable achievements of the past century: the IT revolution, artificial intelligence, the technological progress and so on. EBRD, as other financial institutions, ought to adapt itself to this new environment and try to respond wisely and appropriately. In this respect, I think that EBRD has to continue its work in the countries for which the Bank was initially created, as transition gaps still exist. We all need to share our experience with the new countries of operations, adjusting our knowledge to new challenging environments. We need to remain open minded and ready to tackle further challenges in this multidimensional environment. EBRD needsto be ready to share, when and if its help is required. Together with the other institutions of European Union, the European Commission, the EIB Group, as well as the national development agencies of the member states, we all have a duty to help/assist the less fortunate. However, as expansion is a “hot topic” today in the EBRD, should it be considered by the shareholders in the future, it needs to be calibrated with a strong and decisive intervention in the current countries of operations, to remove as much as possible the transition gaps.
Caleb M Fundanga: Developing Zambia’s Stock Exchange Remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the official launch of the BancABC Central African Stock Exchange Handbook, Lusaka, 26 July 2011. *  *  *    The Chief Executive Officer of ABC Holdings - Mr Douglas Munatsi    The Managing Director of BancABC Zambia Limited - Mr Dana Botha    The Managing Director of Lusaka Stock Exchange - Mrs Beatrice Nkanza    Management and Staff of BancABC    Chief Executive Officers and Representatives of various Institutions present;    Distinguished Invited Guests;    Members of the Press;    Ladies and Gentlemen. Let me begin by thanking the management of BancABC for inviting me to this occasion, which marks the official launch of the “Central African Stock Exchange (CASE) Handbook”. I also wish to thank the Managing Director of BancABC, Mr Dana Botha, for sending me a copy of the CASE handbook. The handbook provides a snapshot of various company financial results, share price performance and volumes traded in 2010. The handbook also highlights basic information on investment and borrowing options, which will not only assist investors diversify their portfolios but also assist in reducing transaction costs in our stock market. Ladies and Gentlemen, The stock market is an important avenue for harnessing resources for the financing of development in our country.

I wish therefore, to commend BancABC for sponsoring the CASE Handbook, which I am sure will provide valuable information to active and potential players on the Stock Market in Zambia. With these remarks, I wish to declare the CASE handbook officially launched. I thank you for your attention. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches