samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Derivatives instruments are beneficial for all firms and the decision to use these instruments is largely shaped by the goals of the firm rather than its size. Here, I would like to touch upon a point about the information transmission function of derivatives markets. Derivatives markets offer economic agents the chance to price their expectations of the future. Thus, thanks to derivatives markets, expectations become measurable and through prices, more information concerning the future is shared with other economic agents. This structure enables a more effective resource allocation mechanism through more effective financial markets in the economy as a whole. Besides their contribution to the effectiveness of the resource allocation mechanism, the development of derivatives markets helps the financial sector to grow. Hence, derivatives markets contribute to the increase in national income and employment by indirectly encouraging more effective resource allocation and by providing value added. Derivatives markets introduce new investment instruments to the financial intermediary system, or in a broader sense, to the financial system. This, in turn, increases the number of instruments investors can use in order to diversify their portfolios and thus deepens financial markets. If we analyze what the diversity in investment instruments means for our country, we see that thanks to the derivatives markets, both real sector and financial sector investors will be able to manage their risks in diversity in line with the world markets and this structure will help our country to integrate with world markets.

The third point regarding the changing process of the Turkish economy I would like to share with you is the increase in confidence, which is actually an outcome of the issues that I have just mentioned. To clarify this point, public confidence in the economic policies in implementation and favorable expectations of the results of these policies have improved and are continuing to improve. The most concrete indicator of this confidence is that the inflation target is becoming a more credible nominal anchor for most of the economic agents. In other words, it is more commonly used as a reference. The existence of a strong nominal anchor in an economy, which can be used as a reference, helps to shape other economic variables. Accordingly, volatility both in economic fundamentals and in other variables gradually decreases. As I have already emphasized at the beginning of my speech, this point is of great importance with respect to resolving the pricing difficulty arising from excessive volatility. Moreover, today we are happy to see that economic units are now able to foresee longer terms and they are now able to carry out longer-term transactions. These developments are drastic steps for determining benchmark interest rates for pricing derivatives operations. Thanks to the macroeconomic stability and structural transformation process, we have now reached the point where we can make risk management in a sound and healthy environment. The Turkish Derivatives Exchange is the most important pillar and complementary element of this process.
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Caleb M Fundanga: Financial sector development in Zambia Remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the farewell cocktail hosted in honour of the Barclays Bank Zamia Limited Managing Director, Lusaka, 4 February 2010. *  *  *  The Chairman – Barclays Bank Zambia Plc, Mr J J Sikazwe The Chairman – Bankers Association of Zambia, Mr Saviour Chibiya Chief Executive Officers of Commercial Banks Outgoing Barclays Southern Africa Regional Managing Director, Mr Zafar Masud Acting Barclays Bank Plc, Managing Director, Mr Bret Packard Management and Staff of Barclays Bank Zambia Plc Colleagues from Bank of Zambia Distinguished Guests Ladies and Gentlemen Ladies and gentlemen I am privileged to officiate at this farewell cocktail as we say goodbye to Mr. Zafar Masud who has been the Managing Director of Barclays Bank Zambia since January 2008. In the past few years, Barclays Bank Zambia Plc has contributed to making banking more accessible through its outreach programme which saw an increase in its ATM and branch network to over 150 ATMs and 55 distribution points comprising branches and agencies nationwide. Clearly the grass-root population in Zambia has continued to benefit from this initiative. As is the case with a number of other banks, Barclays Bank Zambia Plc has continued to innovate and positively contribute to financial sector development in Zambia.
In tandem with the SLDILSS, the Central Bank may direct the existing shareholders to infuse fresh capital, or invite a strategic investor to acquire a strategic stake in the financial institution through an infusion of new capital. Step 4: Implementing the financial sector consolidation plan Ladies and gentlemen, let me now take you through the implementation process of the consolidation plan. The implementation was structured under 4 phases, of which 2 phases have already been completed while the third phase is progressing now. Let me briefly explain to you the accomplishments made under the first 3 phases and our plans under the final phase of the programme. Phase I (from 17 January to 31 March 2014) Action 1: Unveiling of the master plan and meetings with the Boards of Directors As the starting point to the execution of the consolidation programme, the Master Plan on Consolidation of the Financial Sector was unveiled by the Governor on 17 January 2014, giving the necessary guidance to the banking and NBFI sectors on the way forward. This special forum was attended by the Chairpersons and the Chief Executive Officers of all  12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  banks and NBFIs, and all other stakeholders. The Central Bank requested all banks and NBFIs to continue a close dialogue with the Central Bank and obtain guidance if the need arises and also to submit their preliminary proposals regarding the consolidation plan by 31 March 2014.

The IMF estimates that it stands 10% to 15% below pre-crisis forecasts in the euro area.ii However, to fully understand the situation, we need to take a closer look at the nature of business investment. We must distinguish between investment in construction on the one hand – which in itself does not spur innovation – and investment in research and development and industrial machinery on the other, which I call “productive investment”.iii The matter of concern is that productive investment is insufficient: across the economy as a whole, the productive investment rate has long been lower than before 2007 in the euro area and is persistently weaker in France than in Germany. This brings us to the third important feature of this investment dearth: the behaviour of businesses (slide 6). Since mid-2009 it has dramatically changed: given the  weakness  of  business  investment,  non-financial  corporations have turned from net borrowers into net lenders. Thereby they  3 have fuelled the current account surplus in the euro area. In short, all of these realities converge: the root of the problem today in Europe is the investment deficit more than the savings glut. 2. Now, why has this investment dearth happened? Let me briefly elaborate on the key levers of investment. The first and most important one is expected demand (slide 7). The overall weakness in economic activity acts as a deterrent for most businesses.
The chart shows the planned use of the real return on the Petroleum Fund, measured by the government budget’s structural, non-oil deficit as a percentage of mainland GDP. We see that the plans call for a gradual increase in the use of petroleum revenues over the government budget. This can contribute to avoiding abrupt shifts in demand. BIS Review 7/2002  9  The chart shows that the expansionary impetus varies substantially and is greatest in the first few years. The value of the Petroleum Fund will vary over time as a result of variations in the transfer of capital due to fluctuations in the oil price, petroleum production and the return achieved by the Fund. How the guidelines are to be applied has been discussed thoroughly in various political documents. The expected real return shall be used as a basis for the phasing in of petroleum revenues. Hence, the use of these revenues does not fluctuate in step with the actual real return. Moreover, the calculations shall normally be based on an estimate of the Fund’s size at the time the budget documents are completed. This means that fluctuations in revenues affect the budget with a considerable lag. The budget for 2002, for example, is based on the size of the Fund at the beginning of 2001. Estimates for petroleum revenues and the return through 2001are then added. These estimates are provided in the National Budget presented in autumn 2001.

Immediately after the meeting, the Bank issues a press release and holds a press conference. The press conference is transmitted live on the Internet. The introduction to the press conference is also published on the Internet. Newspaper articles and speeches are published in both Norwegian and English on our web site. Once a year, Norges Bank evaluates the projections made in the Inflation Report. The results are published in an article in Economic Bulletin. The Annual Report contains an assessment of the monetary policy that has been conducted. If actual price inflation deviates significantly from the target, the Bank will account for this in the Annual Report. Norges Bank’s interest rate decisions are a consequence of the response pattern that has been communicated, our analyses and our assessments of the effects of monetary policy. If we have succeeded in communicating our response pattern and thus laid the foundation for a credible monetary policy, the market should not in general be surprised by the Executive Board’s interest rate decisions. A measure of market surprise may be the change in money market rates from the day before to the day after a monetary policy meeting. A small change will indicate that the decision was in line with market expectations. On the other hand, a large change indicates that the market had expected another decision. 6  BIS Review 7/2002  This chart shows the change in deposit rates (red bar) and in three-month money market rates (blue bar) in connection with monetary policy meetings since 1999.
; Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz (1963), A Monetary History of the United  States, 1867–1960, Princeton University Press; and Ben Bernanke (2004), Essays on the Great Depression, Princeton University Press. 4 Robert L. Hetzel (2008), The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve: A History, Cambridge University Press. 5 Milton Friedman (1963), Inflation: Causes and Consequences, Asian Publishing House. 6 Willem Buiter (2016), “Dysfunctional Central Banking; The End of Independent Central Banks or a Return to  ‘Narrow Central Banking’ – or Both?”, Global Economics View, Citi Research, 21 December; Otmar Issing (2016), “Central Banks – From Overburdening to Decline?”, SAFE White Paper Series, No 42. 7 Jakob de Haan and Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger (2017), “Central bank independence under threat?”, CEPR Policy  Insight, No 87. 8 Transparency International EU (2017), Two sides of the same coin – Independence and accountability of the  European Central Bank, transparency.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/TI-EU_ECB_Report_DIGITAL.pdf. 6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches

Inflationary pressures have been held down by greater competition in several segments of the economy, particularly in the supermarkets and telecommunications industry. Strong productivity growth has also helped neutralise the inflationary effects of increases in nominal earnings and the partial restoration of the employers’ CPF contribution rate. 1  BIS Review 62/2000  Looking ahead, we expect the growth momentum to be sustained for the rest of 2000 and to moderate only slightly next year. This is underpinned by the favourable outlook for the external economic environment. Economic activity will be led by steady growth in the manufacturing sector and a strong pick-up in the services sectors. Domestic spending is also expected to remain strong. We expect the remaining slack in the economy to be taken up within the next 12 months. As the labour market tightens further, wage pressures will begin to emerge. Imported CPI will also rise, as higher commodity prices filter through to higher import prices of consumption goods. We expect CPI inflation to edge up slightly, to about 1-2% in 2000 and 2001. MAS is, therefore, prepared to allow a gradual and modest appreciation of the Sing dollar on a trade weighted basis in the coming year, in line with the strengthening of economic fundamentals. This would contain any incipient inflationary tendencies without exerting undue pressure on our competitiveness, bearing in mind the tightening labour market and the progressive restoration of employer CPF contributions.
Naturally, these policy actions have been underpinned by assessments conducted by specialists with expertise in very different areas, this in cooperation with the broader membership. Inclusive working methods and broad expertise I think the ESRB has a good work process in the sense that it combines two features: First, all members are free to send participants to an ESRB workstream. This is an inclusive working method where different perspectives meet, where there is a “buy-in” for the members and where peer pressure is exerted. Second, there is the procedural aspect which I mentioned earlier, that the decision-making body eventually votes on what road to take. Notably, the ESRB has been able to publish a quite extensive amount of work and has contributed actively to the general debate. This is, in my view, very important for implementing a macroprudential culture in a broader sense, reaching outside the circle of the ESRB membership. Simply by shedding light on some of the macroprudential issues we are dealing with, and explaining why we see a need to tackle them, may contribute to managing expectations; making the job of safeguarding financial stability just a little easier. The ESRB’s contributions also cover very complex, and in some respects sensitive, issues where the parties involved may have started from views that are very far apart from one another. Being capable of getting results even when dealing with difficult tasks like that is an important quality of a body like the ESRB.

In the PF approach, the development of potential hours is based on assessments with no HP trend element. Figures 8 and 9 show the measures of resource utilisation based on GDP and potential GDP, in addition to hours worked and potential hours worked, that were the result of these calculations. They indicate that resource utilisation is largely normal this year. The GDP gap based on the HP filter is slightly higher than normal, while the GDP gap based on the PF approach is slightly lower than normal. The reason for the difference lies in the assessment of the potential number of hours worked. The hours gap based on the HP filter is slightly higher than normal, while the hours gap used in the PF approach is slightly lower than normal. Difficulties in calculations, but reasonable view of present situation There are several problems with the method of calculating potential GDP I have just described. Among others, these include the calculations of potential labour, capital stock and TFP. The difficulty of assessing potential GDP is also illustrated by the way that assessments of the GDP gap have changed over time. Attention has been drawn to this, not least by  10  4  Sveriges Riksbank, Monetary Policy Update, September 2011.
We have made substantial progress with respect to the labor market outlook since we began our current program of large scale asset  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  purchases in 2012. Because it looks very likely that the program will have fulfilled its objectives, I expect to support a decision to end the asset purchase program at the end of this month. At the same time, it still is premature to begin to raise interest rates – the labor market still has too much slack and the inflation rate is too low. The consensus view is that lift-off will take place around the middle of next year. That seems like a reasonable view to me. But, again, it is just a forecast. What we do will depend on the flow of economic news and how that affects the economic outlook. For example, firmer growth, higher inflation, and a more rapid tightening of the labor market could cause us to move earlier. Conversely, should economic growth disappoint, the timing of lift-off could be pushed later. I hope the economy cooperates. If it does and lift-off begins sometime next year, that will be something to be very excited about. It will signal that the economy is finally getting healthier and that the Fed is getting closer to achieving its dual mandate objectives of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. That would be very good news even if it were to cause a bump or two in financial markets.

We learnt this lesson the hard way in the wake of the GFC, and that is why the Committee's membership – comprising both central banks and supervisory authorities – is crucial to ensure that we benefit from both the system-wide and institution-specific perspectives. Moreover, given the increasingly cross-sectoral nature of many of today's financial stability issues – such as digitalisation and climate – I believe that more cooperation across different sectors – for example, on accounting, competition, anti-money laundering, data privacy, and taxation, to name a few issues – is also vital. In many instances, we are all working on similar issues from a slightly different angle, and so we would surely all benefit from sharing notes and ensuring that there are no unintended gaps or overlaps. Let me end by noting that cooperation need not mean full harmonisation. While having a single, uniform "global rule book" may be theoretically appealing, the fact is that we live in a heterogeneous world, with structural and cyclical differences across banking systems and jurisdictions. Moreover, many of our central bank and supervisory authority members are accountable to their national legislatures, so it is crucial that global standard setting bodies are perceived to be legitimate and transparent. This is why the Basel Committee has an extensive outreach programme with a wide range of stakeholders that go beyond market participants, to include academics, public sector bodies, legislatures and civil society. Indeed, there needs to be an appropriate balance between globally-agreed decisions and national measures.
The opposite  3  Alternative forecasts for the repo rate are published in the Monetary Policy Reports, three times per year. Alternative forecasts for the repo rate are also discussed ahead of the remaining monetary policy meetings, but these are not published in the Monetary Policy Updates. 4  The trend is estimated using a so-called Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP filter). This is a statistical method for dividing the movements of a variable into trend and cyclical components. The method can be described as a weighted double-sided moving average where greater weight is placed on observations close at hand and gradually decreasing weight on more distant observations. The output gap according to the HP method should not necessarily be interpreted as the Riksbank’s overall assessment of resource utilisation. 4  BIS Review 32/2010  applies when the gap is negative. Figure 2.d illustrates the output gap based on the two repo rate paths. Both paths resulted in negative output gaps during the forecast period, that is to say resource utilisation below the normal level. However, using the repo rate path in the main scenario gave a less negative output gap, using this measurement method, than using the repo rate path from December 2008. The lower repo-rate path thus stabilised both CPIF inflation and resource utilisation better than the higher repo rate path.

In the current circumstance, the Federal Reserve’s liquidity programs act on the asset side of the balance sheet as the Fed lends funds against less liquid collateral and expands its asset holdings via purchases of agency debt, agency MBS and Treasuries. The goals are to slow down the pace of deleveraging to reduce the risk of catastrophic failure, improve market function and ease financial market conditions. In contrast, the Bank of Japan worked on the liability side of the balance. Their goal was to expand the amount of excess reserves held by the banking system so that the banks would be more willing to expand their credit provisions. Although the Fed’s activities have led to a big jump in excess reserves, this increase is incidental – a byproduct rather than goal of the asset-oriented programs. Second, as a consequence of this my point, the size of the balance sheet, is not a good metric for measuring the impact of the Fed’s facilities or the amount of stimulus that the Fed is providing via these programs. For example, consider the impact of the Fed facilities on rollover risk. A Fed facility that eliminates rollover risk might not be used at all. There might be no balance sheet impact. Nevertheless, the facility could have an important impact on market function and financial market conditions. It is not possible to mechanically map the size of the balance sheet back onto the impact on financial market conditions.