samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The question is then how we can maintain the benefits of financial integration at the same time as we avoid ending up in another crisis such as this one. It is especially important to answer this question in our respective countries, that is, in Sweden as well as in Greece. Both you and I represent countries with domestic banks that are heavily engaged in cross-border banking activities. In Sweden, the domestic banks conduct roughly half of their lending in international markets, mainly in the other Nordic countries and in Germany. However, over the last five years we have also seen three of our largest banks (SEB, Swedbank and Nordea) capturing substantial market shares in the Baltic States. In some of these countries the Swedish banks account for up to 80 per cent of the domestic banking system. 1 Greek banks are also extensively involved in cross-border banking. National Bank of Greece, for instance, operates subsidiaries in over 20 countries in South-eastern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean. 2 I will devote most of this speech to a discussion about the main implications and challenges arising from this new banking structure. Before turning to that, however, I will say a few words about how cross-border banking has developed and describe briefly why we may have seen such a rapid globalisation of the banking sector to begin with. Then I will focus on the need to enhance cross-border cooperation between national authorities.

Whether for market counterparties, central banks or backstop providers, lending decisions are much easier to contemplate where solvency is assured in the operating entities that need funding. Work in FSB to date has concentrated on what is necessary to stabilise G-SIBs at the point of entry to resolution, whether changes to firms to make them resolvable - like TLAC and operational continuity requirements - or to market contracts and conventions - like the ISDA Protocol or access to FMIs. But bail-in is not the end of the task. It is a prelude to whatever reorganisation is necessary to restore a firm to viability or to wind it down. Importantly though bail-in buys the time for that process to be orderly. Post bail-in restructuring runs as a thread through some of the other initiatives I have mentioned. It is part of the operational continuity principles. And, as part of the access to FMI work we are keen to investigate how easy it would be in resolution to dismantle the quasiFMI functions – payment services, clearing and custody – provided by G-SIBs to clients, financial and non-financial. However easy or difficult it is to transfer or wind-down services provided by a G-SIB, clients may have contingency providers themselves or may want to rely on the portability of their positions to move. If they are to move we need to find a way for that to happen in an orderly way. Post bail-in restructuring is also where ring-fencing of UK banks fits in.
The enhancement of current investment initiatives, including the extension of the Juncker plan, progress on the capital markets union and reforms that will improve the resolution of nonperforming loans will also contribute positively to this objective. In an environment of accommodative monetary policy, the swift and effective implementation of structural reforms will not only lead to higher sustainable economic growth in the euro area but will also make the euro area more resilient to global shocks. Fiscal policies should also support the economic recovery, while remaining in compliance with the fiscal rules of the European Union. Full and consistent implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact over time and  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  across countries remains crucial to ensure confidence in the fiscal framework. At the same time, all countries should strive for a more growth-friendly composition of fiscal policies. We are now at your disposal for questions. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

The men of Eidsvoll needed a bank that could provide credit in Norway. Norges Bank quickly became an important lender. It was not until the latter half of the 1800s that a private banking system truly came into being. Norges Bank acquired its present-day role of the bankers’ bank and lender of last resort. With private banking came banking crises. The 1899 crash in Christiania triggered the first serious banking crisis in Norway. A real estate bubble in the capital burst and house prices  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  plummeted. It took more than 100 years for real house prices in Oslo to return to their precrash level.4 Banks play a key role in the payments system and channel credit from savers to investors. If the flow of credit seizes up, problems will rapidly spread through the entire economy, as witnessed during the latest financial crisis. A robust banking system is of benefit to us all. Banks are now adapting to new capital requirements. On top of the new capital requirements is a countercyclical capital buffer. The countercyclical capital buffer will vary over time. It will be increased when financial imbalances build up. In the event of economic stress and large bank losses, banks will be able to draw down the buffer. Chart 7: Key policy rate and bank lending rates Even if the key policy rate is low, interest rates on loans to households and enterprises are not particularly low.
“Experts,” who were regarded as the handmaiden of this system, were seen as responsible for many of these ills and skepticism about their credibility loomed large in the debate about Brexit. In addition to experts having been seen to have “got it wrong,” their monopoly on opinion has been weakened by technology. Social media and the internet have contributed to a disintermediation of experts as information has become more widely available, news has become more targeted to individual interests and preferences, and as people increasingly choose who to trust and follow. Who needs experts when you have Facebook, Google, Mumsnet and Twitter? Better to rely on oneself and one’s network of friends over a set of experts in the pockets of corporations, political parties and banks. I want to explore these developments because I think they speak to some of the most important issues of our time. They will determine the quality of politics and policy in the future, who is trusted and why. There are also some important lessons for policy makers as well as for universities which are the factories for producing experts and the place in which a great deal of expert debate occurs. What have the experts ever done for us? Recall the scene in the Monty Python skit, the Life of Brian, in which a group named the People’s Front of Judea is organizing a rebellion against the Roman empire.

Another important example of delegation to experts has been the creation of independent central banks to decide on monetary policy to deliver an inflation target set by government. Frustration with high inflation in the 1970s made many countries move towards de-politicizing decisions about monetary policy and interest rates. Research suggested that political pressure led to an ‘inflation bias’ in policymaking, which could be 8  solved by delegating responsibility for price stability to independent central banks. The following decades  1  Source: Ourworldindata.org Source: World Health Organisation 3 Source: The World Bank 4 Where poverty is defined as living on less than $ a day at 2011 prices. Source: World Bank (http://data.worldbank.org/topic/poverty) 5 Source: World Bank 6 Source The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations 7 Until 46 BC, the calendar used in the Roman Empire consisted of 12 months of a total of 355 days, with the intention that an additional month would be added in some years so as to keep the calendar in line with the solar year (of 365¼ days). The pontifices had some discretion over the calendar, meaning they could use it for political advantage by lengthening or shortening the terms of Roman magistrates who were supposed to serve for a calendar year. This led to considerable confusion for ordinary citizens as to what date it was. Moreover, by the 40s BC the Roman calendar was three months ahead of the solar calendar.
Cunliffe, J, (2015) “Macroprudential policy: from Tiberius to Crockett and beyond”, Bank of England, speech given at TheCityUK, London. Drehmann, M, Borio, C and Tsatsaronis, K (2012), “Characterising the financial cycle: don’t lose sight of the medium term”, BIS Working Paper No 380, June. Hills, S, Thomas, R and Dimsdale, N (2010) The UK Recession in Context – What Do Three Centuries of Data Tell Us?, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Q4. Jorda, Ò, Schularick, M., and Tayler, A, M., (2015) “Leveraged bubbles”, Federal Reserve Bank of San Fancisco Working Paper Series, 2015–10. Mcleay, M, and Thomas, R, (2016) “UK broad money growth in the long expansion 1992– 2007: what can it tell us about the role of money ?”, forthcoming in: in Chadha, J, Chrystal, A, Pearlman, J, Smith, P, and Wright S (2016) eds., The Long Expansion in the UK: causes and consequences”, Cambridge University Press. Mian, A, R., Sufi, A., and Verner, E., (2015) “Household debt and business cycles worldwide”, NBER Working Paper No.21581. Rachel, L, and Smith, T, D, (2015) “Secular drivers of the global real interest rate”, Bank of England Staff Working Paper No.571, December. Schularick, M and Taylor, A., M. (2012), “Credit booms gone bust: Monetary policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Cycles, 1870–2008”, American Economic Review 102(2): 1029–1061. Waldron, M, and Zampolli, F (2010), “Household debt, house prices and consumption in the United Kingdom: a quantitative theoretical analysis”, Bank of England Working Paper No 379.

So one very important lesson in this is that traditional indicators of the business cycle cannot be relied upon to flash warning lights about vulnerabilities building up in the financial system. Where did the money go? If the total amount of UK private credit in the economy rose sharply in the 10 years before the crisis without much impact on private sector demand or the economy as a whole, where did the money go? Some went to business – around a third, much of it to commercial real estate. But the bulk, around two-thirds of the credit, was to households (Chart 3). Bank lending to households made a particularly large contribution to credit growth in the first half of the 2000s. And while unsecured lending grew strongly over the period, it only comprised about 10–15% of lending to households. The much larger part was, of course, secured lending for housing. And it is fair to call it a boom. Secured household debt relative to annual household income was stable at around 70% for much of the 1990s, before rising rapidly to over 110% by 2007. The stock of household debt secured on housing went in real terms from around £ billion to £ billion. The main driver of course was the increase in house prices relative to earnings over the period – from about 2.5 times climbing to 5 times. Households have of course a house on their balance sheet – to set against the debt.
Going back to what I said earlier about maintaining high morals, keep away from abusing alcohol, drugs and sex as these are the ingredients that are likely to lead you into high risk behavior  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  such as unprotected sex and cause you to contract the HIV/AIDS. Abstinence is the only 100% effective way to avoid getting infected. WHAT EMPLOYERS WANT Employers want to see in you potential to be a high flyer and willingness to learn new things. Employers want a demonstration of productivity. Employers want to receive a good reference, a transcript that reflects goods results and a qualification from an institution of repute, a qualification that is relevant to their needs. You therefore need to be forward looking even as you select your subject. PLAN YOUR LIVES. Do not have the attitude of FIKAISOLVA. Have a recipe for a successful life. It is never too early. I had decided when I began to study law that I wanted to specialize in commercial law. That path has brought me to where I am today. I must make mention that you are fortunate in that the environment of the college is ideal for learning. I had the opportunity to be taken around the college and I observed that you have modern facilities and equipment that support your learning. Your classrooms have the necessary furniture, the computer laboratory has access to internet and the physical building conditions are solid.

Home prices have generally stabilized across upstate New York, with some parts, such as Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, even experiencing price increases over this period. However, home prices have continued to decline in the greater New York and New Jersey area. By contrast, the number of home sales have generally increased throughout the region over the past year. But the pattern has been erratic because of various policy changes. In particular, the introduction, initial expiration and subsequent extension of the home buyer tax credit introduced volatility as it boosted, slowed and then boosted sales again. With the final expiration of this tax credit, the recent rise in home sales across New York and northern New Jersey may well be short-lived. Regional housing trends: focus on New York City I’ll end with a few remarks about New York City’s housing market – a very large market that stands out as unique in many respects. Let me remind you of some of these key differences:   Compared with the rest of the region, and with the rest of the country, New York City has an exceptionally large share of rental housing: 67 percent of homes citywide versus 33 percent for the United States.   The market is dominated by multi-family structures, especially in Manhattan and the Bronx. When these units are owner-occupied, they are more likely to be co-ops than condominiums, and, thus, to have comparatively low leverage rates.   New York City has very high housing prices and long construction lags.
In Hong Kong, the Gini coefficient has risen steadily from 0.476 in 1991 to 0.539 in 2016, whereas in the US, it has increased from 0.449 in 1991 to 0.519 in 2015.2 Economic inequality causes social divisions, with the rise in populism especially in the US and Europe being one of the unwelcome symptoms, and it also affects development and growth in the longer run. Indeed, problems with income and wealth disparity have become so acute that it has recently triggered a debate on the “crisis of capitalism”. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, when presenting her Global Policy Agenda at the IMF Spring Meetings last month, also pointed out that the rewards of economic growth have not been shared, and called for a “new multilateralism” which will, among other things, foster inclusion. 4. With so much at stake, policymakers simply cannot brush aside the issue of the widening gap between the “haves” and the “have-nots”. Over the past two years, I have been talking about, on different occasions, how globalisation, technological innovation and monetary policy may have affected distribution of income and wealth. Today I wish to offer some further thoughts about the distributional consequences of monetary policies: what has happened so far, and the way forward for policymakers. The distributional effects of unconventional monetary policies 5.

Norman T L Chan: Monetary policy’s effect on wealth distribution and a way forward for policymakers Welcoming remarks by Mr Norman T L Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint Conference, Hong Kong, 23 May 2019. * * * 1. Good morning, President Bullard, Director Hirtle, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to this conference jointly organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. I would especially like to thank our overseas guests who have travelled a long way to be with us today. 2. Over the past 40 years, the global economy has undergone impressive growth and transformation. From 1980 to 2018, PPP-adjusted real per capita GDP in advanced economies and emerging market economies have increased by 94% and 205% respectively1, driven by globalisation, open markets, technological advancements, and the general trend of falling inflation. 3. But the news is not all good. While the world economy has done well on the whole, economic inequality has widened noticeably at the same time. Just take a look at the Gini coefficient, which is a commonly cited measure of income inequality.
Hence, the inflation target is now a more credible nominal anchor for economic agents. To sum it up, today, Turkey appears to be catching up with the Maastricht criterion on inflation. Secondly, the Turkish economy grew by a total of 28 percent between the end 2001 and the first half of 2005. This is the highest rate among the EU countries and the acceding countries such as Bulgaria and Romania, also one of the highest in the world. A closer look into the spectacular growth reveals the fact that the dynamics of growth have been changing as well. These high growth rates have been attained while inflation was coming down continuously, contrary to the widespread belief in Turkey up to 2002 that inflation made growth possible. During this new era, the productivity surge in the economy and the private sector have been the engine of the growth performance. Actually, in the last three years the cumulative increase in labour productivity is about 35 percent. Besides, it is essential to note that exports of goods are contributing to growth with an increasing share. As a matter of fact, the total foreign trade volume has gone up by 120 percent since 2001. This figure is the highest among acceding countries and all members. Turkey is now focusing on maintaining high growth rates on a sustainable path.

First of all, although the unemployment rate in the Turkish economy is quite high compared to the EU members, we observe that the total increase in employment throughout the year 2004 was much higher than that of the EU members and acceding countries. Another notable issue about the structure of our labour market is that Turkey s economy is moving from a labour intensive structure toward a capital intensive one. And it is a natural consequence that during this period some sectors are expanding while others are contracting. What this implies is that the structure of employment has also been changing. In fact, even though it is still  15  Under-Secretariat of State Planning Organization. 16  http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat. 17  International Labour Organization. 18  Böttcher, B. (2004). "Turkish Accession to the EU- The Way is the Goal". Deutche Bank Research. 19  International Labour Organization. 20  www.un.org. 6/8  high compared to the EU members, the share of the agricultural sector in total employment has been falling while that of services sector has been on the rise. And I believe that Turkey s young and dynamic demographic structure supports easier transfers between sectors and facilitates improvement in the sectoral dispersion of employment. Having mentioned all these demographic and labour market conditions of the EU and Turkey, I need to emphasize the importance of making further progress on educational reforms in Turkey.
The same type of test was conducted before a Swedish bank could receive a permit for opening branches within Sweden. Capital movements and certain current account transactions in and out of Sweden were restricted. Companies were only allowed to transfer funds abroad in order to finance their overseas investments if they could prove sound economic reasons for doing so, such as if the investments might eventually lead to increased exports from Sweden. Companies were allowed to borrow abroad, but only in foreign currency and there were also requirements from the Riksbank on the minimum maturity of the loan. Physical persons were only granted a small foreign currency allowance for travel, and had to apply to the central bank for any additional sums such as for acquiring a house or apartment abroad. Foreign companies were generally not allowed to issue securities in the Swedish markets. Foreign banks were not allowed to operate in Sweden and Swedish banks had to obtain permits when they wanted to establish subsidiaries abroad; branches were not allowed at all. These restrictions on capital movements had several aims. One was to ensure a stable Swedish currency, with a fixed exchange rate, insulated from any sudden capital flows. Originally, and in particular during and immediately after the Second World War the restrictions supported the rationing of the scarce foreign currency revenues available to the Swedish economy.

But neither the markets nor the public was comfortable with the degree of secrecy on these matters in the past. •  It does, though, pose the question of what happens when a firm ‘fails’ a stress test. And at this point, I need to broaden these remarks to the international scene and how that is affecting our relationships with business. Part 3: Policy in a global setting •  This country believes in free trade and open financial markets. Our financial system is highly integrated with the global system. •  That means that some firms domiciled or operating in the UK are global, and many are international. Creates a huge need for a level playing-field internationally. That is a common interest of business and the authorities:  •  Business: want to be able to compete more or less anywhere on equal terms with local, indigenous firms and with international firms from other countries. •  Authorities: want good standards on top of that. Not only because we need them at home. The UK/London needs good standards abroad too: problems in the international financial system almost anywhere in the world will blow through London and the UK to a greater or lesser extent. And vice versa. Financially, we’re the opposite of an island. •  Up to a point we can mitigate that by measures such as HMG’s planned ‘ring fencing’ of retail banks, which has the effect of separating domestic intermediation from the entrepôt. But the non-ring-fenced banks matter for stability too!