samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
At the same time, the Bank of Russia still lacks the mandate for supervision over bank holding companies and, in a wider sense, over financial groups made up of non-state pension funds, insurance companies, and the so-called parallel banks – which have the same owners. The lack of supervision over such associations, together with the lack of their responsibility to comply with prudential standards, is behind the current concealing of problems, which gives rise to an incentive for their owners to structure associations of finance companies, in an arrangement allowing them to escape compliance with required ratios, internal control or risk management requirements. The Bank of Russia believes it is time to do away with the unequal regulatory field that is subject to an association’s organisational structure. As a result, it would make no difference to owners of financial institutions, whether their financial institution’s parent company is under Bank of Russia supervision or whether a holding’s parent company is established by the owners. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  Our position is that financial groups should have regulatory standards and requirements to enable control of risk and capital management systems, as well as requirements for business reputation of a parent organisation’s Board members and executives. There are good reasons to enable the central bank to take corrective actions against a parent organisation or participants in financial groups if they violate regulations.

Increased public discontent being actively exploited by populists is mainly linked to the nondynamic development of the global economy over this decade. The reasons are different: ageing of the population and the reduction of the economically active population; low growth rates in countries used to be the powerful drivers of growth in previous years, such as China; the lack of new breakthrough technologies; accumulation of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  various structural imbalances; the on-going reduction of debt burden accumulated before the 2008 crisis (so-called deleveraging) and so on. The problem is that low growth rates affect the poor more adversely than the rich. Income disparity in the world has soared since the mid-1980s. The latest OECD report emphasises this fact. The Gini coefficient in OECD countries grew by almost 10% to 32. According to World Bank estimates, in 2000–2012 the Gini coefficient in Russia increased from 37 to 41.5. It would not be an exaggeration to say that a vicious circle is being shaped: low rates of economic growth strengthen centrifugal and disintegration forces and provoke events like Brexit, which downgrade the outlook for world economic growth even stronger. A growing demand for ‘easy’ economic decisions has also been observed in Russia. For example, giving promises that the printing of 1–2-3 trillion rubles and their issue as cheap loans will ensure sustained acceleration in economic growth rates without serious inflation implications. This is even based on pseudo-scientific foundation.
Also, there is a box that scrutinizes the steps taken to solve the debt problem in the euro area, which points out to the role of structural problems such as the marked divergence in member countries’ competitiveness in hindering stable growth in the euro area. There is also a box exploring the rebalancing process in domestic and external demand thanks to the policies implemented last year. Titles of the boxes are shown on the slide. All of these boxes include important analyses. They will be published on our web-site shortly and I strongly recommend that you read them. Considering the ongoing major role of the developments in the global economy on our policies, I would like to start with the global economic outlook. Since the publication of the October 2011 Inflation Report, concerns over sovereign debt sustainability across the euro area have continued to weigh on the global economic outlook despite the implementation of various policy measures. Growth forecasts were revised downwards at a global scale particularly in the euro area economies (Chart 1). Thus, perceptions for a further delay in the normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies grew stronger. Notwithstanding a relative improvement in the risk appetite as of the onset of 2012, uncertainties regarding the solution of euro area problems persist. Coupled with the increased risk of contagion, this feeds into the fragility in global financial markets, highlighting the significance of a flexible monetary policy framework. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Chart 1.

Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook  Now, I would like to present our inflation and output gap forecasts based on the outlook I have described so far. When forming our forecasts, we assumed that the tight monetary policy stance will be sustained for a while; and consequently, annualized loan growth rate will hover around 15 percent and the Turkish lira will display a mild appreciation trend. Accordingly, inflation is expected to be, with 70 percent probability, between 5.1 and 7.9 percent with a mid-point of 6.5 percent at the end of 2012, and between 3.3 and 6.9 percent with a mid-point of 5.1 percent at the end of 2013. We expect inflation to stabilize around 5 percent in the medium term (Chart 17). Chart 17. Inflation and Output Gap Forecasts  * Shaded region indicates the 70 percent confidence interval for the forecast. Overall, although demand and cost conditions have not changed notably since the publication of the October Report, we revised our inflation forecasts for end-2012 upwards due to higher initial point (the initial point referring to the latest inflation data before the forecast period) resulting from higher-than-expected inflation during the past three months. As elaborated on in the Report as well, cumulative increases in the exchange rate and commodity prices coupled with soaring unprocessed food prices and the developments in administered prices pushed inflation to high levels in 2011. We estimate that inflation will remain flat in the first quarter and exhibit a gradual downtrend starting from the second quarter (Chart 17).
As in other advanced economies, the expansion in global labour supply has forced a painful period of adjustment for the most 47  The share of UK intermediate exports to the EU for which the final product remains in the EU has fallen by 6% since 1995. Both these findings are reported in Miroudot, S, Lanz, R and Ragoussis, A (2009), ‘Trade in intermediate goods and services’, OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 93. 48  18  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  18  exposed workers in the UK (who are not always the lowest skilled) (Chart 14). 49  This reduces inflationary  pressures in the economy as a whole. Chart 14: Relative wages of workers exposed to global labour markets squeezed  Notes: The chart shows the estimated loss in earnings since 1991 for a worker at a company in the manufacturing sector with a high exposure to rising competition relative to a worker with a low exposure, expressed as a share of their annual earnings in 1991. Source: Professor David Autor, ‘Economic and political consequences of China’s rise for the United States: lessons from the China Shock’, IFS Annual Lecture 2017, 22 June 2017. Higher levels of migration in the UK have not, however, been associated with significant reductions in overall wage growth and therefore inflation. 50  Bank research suggests a 0.5% increase in labour supply (equivalent  to a rise of around 330,000 in net migration) typically reduces inflation by only around 0.1 percentage points.

I will approach the question from the point of view of central banks and ask: what influenced their ability to raise market awareness with respect to building vulnerabilities within the financial system? And can we rely on the ESRB to repair this problem in the future? The information at the disposal of central banks and other bodies with financial stability competencies enabled them to point to growing risks and vulnerabilities, but it did not allow a deeper understanding of the interconnections in the financial system and of the potential magnitude of the detected risks. As a result, the discussion of the risks in their public communications or publications tended to be mostly of a qualitative nature, and generally did not involve a clear risk prioritisation exercise, and therefore had a potentially smaller impact on market behaviour. Another important element was that risk assessments were generally not made with the specific aim of suggesting appropriate remedial policy actions in terms of prudential policies or regulation. Recommendations, mostly formulated in broad terms, tended to target market participants’ behaviour (e.g. proposing mitigating actions), but they were more muted regarding policy measures that could be taken in the prudential and regulatory area. One reason for this is, again, the information base. The formulation of concrete policy recommendations (e.g. with respect to capital buffers or funding-related issues) would need to be backed by rigorous quantitative assessments, for which publicly available information is generally not sufficient.
The decades long conflict which sapped our combined energies in various ways, is finally behind us. Therefore, it is now time for all of us to get together and rebuild our nation, in particular, the areas that have suffered. We, on our part, are keen to assist the people of the North to resume normal lives as soon as possible. Towards that outcome, we believe the Diaspora too could play an active role and become partners in the development process of the North. They can be an important influence to accelerate investments to these areas and thereby support the expansion of industrial activity and tourism. Needless to say economic opportunities in the North are expanding day by day, and I would like to urge overseas Sri Lankans to take an early look at emerging investment opportunities in these areas, particularly in the fields of IT, education and real estate development where they can surely and effectively contribute. 2  BIS Review 16/2010  I would also urge the Chambers of Commerce and Industries, and other similar Associations to consider establishing international institutional frameworks and links, which would pave the way for two-way interaction between the overseas Sri Lankan community and our local institutions and businesses. Such relationships could then act as focal points to promote remittances and investments into the domestic economy, as well. My dear friends, today, we meet in the midst of a significant change in our country’s economic and political landscape.

Woodford, Michael (2007b), “Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy: Policy Rules in Practice”, in Koenig, Evan, and Robert Leeson, eds., From the Great Moderation to the Great Deviation: A Round-Trip Journey Based on the Work of John B. Taylor, forthcoming. Daniel K Tarullo: Equipping financial regulators with the tools necessary to monitor systemic risk Testimony by Mr Daniel K Tarullo, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, before the Subcommittee on Security and International Trade and Finance, Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, US Senate, Washington DC, 12 February 2010. *  *  *  Chairman Bayh, Ranking Member Corker, and other members of the Committee, thank you for inviting me to testify today. I also want to thank all of you for taking the time to explore a subject that is easily overlooked in the public debate around financial reform, but that will be central to ensuring a more stable financial system in the future. The recent financial crisis revealed important gaps in data collection and systematic analysis of institutions and markets. Remedies to fill those gaps are critical for monitoring systemic risk and for enhanced supervision of systemically important financial institutions, which are in turn necessary to decrease the chances of such a serious crisis occurring in the future.
In the words I used when addressing Occupy in 2012, there is now a broader acceptance that “they were right” in their diagnosis (Haldane (2012)). Criticism of Occupy today tends to focus not on their diagnosis, but on their lack of prescription for curing the ills of inequality.   Bill de Blasio. He was elected Mayor of New York in November 2013 on a signature theme of tackling widening inequality in the city. His campaign slogan was “a tale of two cities”. And this was no ordinary victory. Bill de Blasio won with a remarkable 73% of the popular vote.   And finally, Thomas Piketty. Enough has already been said and written about a book bought by many, read by few and understood by even fewer (Piketty (2014)). I am guilty on all three charges. I suspect never, in the field of human endeavour, has so  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  simple a line chart done so much to fuel the debate among so many, not just in the salons of Paris but in the Starbucks of London and New York. Suffice to say, the inequality issue seems unlikely to be a French fashion. It is a global public policy trend and a rising one. Inequality is emerging after a half-century in the wilderness. The surprise may be that it has taken so long. It is well-known, from survey and experimental evidence, that a sense of “fairness” is a deeply-held and richly-valued psychological trait in humans (Bowles (2012)).

The proposed reduction in the corporate tax rate for companies seeking listing in the stock market as well as those already listed, and the postponement of the restoration of the VAT rate until September 2002 will further set the stage for more support in the revival of domestic demand. Additional stimulus will come from the 71.3 billion baht village fund designed to boost investment and facilitate job creation in rural areas. It is important to emphasize that the planed increase in fiscal spending does not compromise the Government’s commitment to fiscal discipline. Total public debt will remain below 60 percent of GDP while debt service (principle and interest) will account for less than 16 percent of the budget. In regards to monetary policy, the inflation targeting framework gives the Bank of Thailand sufficient flexibility to respond quickly to fast changing domestic and external developments. With inflation remaining subdued and likely to remain contained in the range of 1.5-2.5 percent for 2002, the emphasis in the near future will be to strike a proper balance between domestic growth and external stability. While the current stance of monetary policy under the inflation targeting framework with emphasis on external stability is accommodative and appropriate given current conditions, the Bank of Thailand is constantly monitoring developments and will move decisively should circumstances change.
Jarle Bergo: The economic outlook and household debt Address by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the annual meeting of the Association of Norwegian Finance Houses, Gardermoen, 27 May 2005. The discussion of the economic outlook is based on Inflation Report 1/05 and the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 25 May. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The references and the  Charts in pdf-format can also be found on the website of the Norges Bank. *  *  *  The economic outlook The Norwegian economy is growing at a solid pace and growth is likely to remain high. The recession was mild after the previous period of expansion culminated in 2002. The period of relatively high cost inflation in Norway came to an end without production being impacted to the same extent as during the recessions in the early 1980s and around 1990. One of the reasons for this is probably that low inflation in the 1990s and current monetary policy have anchored expectations of low and stable inflation among economic agents. Inflation has been low in recent years. Inflation measured by the CPI-ATE reached its lowest level in the first months of 2004. Inflation picked up through the autumn. The depreciation of the krone since the beginning of 2003 has contributed to these developments.

Think Global, Act local Speech given by Minouche Shafik, Deputy Governor, Markets and Banking  Joint Bank of England, IMF and Hong Kong Monetary Authority conference on Monetary, Financial and Prudential Policy Interactions in the Post-Crisis World, Hong Kong 24 October 2016  I would like to thank James Benford, Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Fernando Eguren Martin, Julia Giese, Sujit Kapadia, Grellan McGrath, Michael McLeay, Dennis Reinhardt, and Simon Whitaker for their assistance in preparing these remarks. I am grateful to other Bank colleagues for useful comments on an earlier draft. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  Introduction  The benefits of open capital markets are clear. They facilitate the flow of finance to where it would be most productive and help ensure global resources are allocated most efficiently. They allow savers and investors to diversify portfolios beyond national borders, and they provide a greater range of funding sources to fast growing economies and businesses. Motivated by these gains from openness, greater capital mobility has been one of the defining features of the global economy since the end of the Bretton Woods era, as first advanced and then emerging market economies liberalised their capital accounts (Chart 1). However, open capital markets also come with risks. Breaking the link between domestic saving and domestic investment allowed countries to accumulate ever larger stocks of external assets and liabilities. And that has contributed to another defining feature of the global economy since the breakdown of Bretton Woods: a significantly greater frequency of crises.
I would like to stress the fact that after integration of supervisory institutions in the central bank we also integrated data collection and data storage systems for both supervisory and statistical purposes. These systems enable collecting data only once, which saves the costs of all respondents, allowing the CNB to use a single set of data for different purposes. As I have already mentioned, these comprehensive data sets also served us well during the period of turbulence, allowing us to monitor the developments in the banking sector. The name of the conference “Statistics: Investment in the Future” means that the papers which will be presented in the next two days will be forward-looking ones. In recent years, we have witnessed a number of initiatives at the international and European level dealing with capturing new phenomena of economic developments in statistics such as wider use of mortgages, lending provided by non-bank financial institutions to households or securitisation of loans and other loan transfers. Recently, the European Central Bank Regulation on statistical reporting requirements as regards securitisation has entered into force. Securitisation of loans and their transfer to specialised institutions had been identified as an important phenomenon at least two years ago when the work on the Regulation started. There are also additional initiatives in the pipeline that attempt to capture new phenomena, such as more detailed statistics on insurance companies and pension funds. This financial sub-sector has become the second largest one at the European level.

[9] That gives us unique bargaining power to shape openness in a European direction and strengthen ties with key partners, such as those on whom we rely for critical resources. And where we see our interests being threatened, we can use our economic weight more strategically – something we have already started to see with the unprecedented sanctions placed upon Russia. But we must also be prepared for a future in which the global economy could fragment. And the best insurance against a more uncertain world is building more resilience at home. So, the second challenge for Europe is to develop more our own sources of growth. Here, the new global map presents Europe with an opportunity. As energy security becomes imperative, we can put climate-related investment needs – especially in clean energy – at the centre of our growth model, strengthening domestic demand. These investment needs will amount to almost half a trillion euro on average per year until 2030. [10] We can also use the green transition as a spur to digitalise the European economy, since digital technologies could reduce global emissions by one fifth by 2050. [11] That could increase productivity growth and help ensure that green investment does not put excessive pressure on prices. But the ambitions of this new growth model will require an enormous amount of financing. And here the financial sector can play a crucial role, if the enabling policies are put in place.
There is no shortage of awareness of this point, whether at the policy or the technical level within the government. At the practical and business level, the banks also have a role in making use of the channels that are opened up: it is gratifying to note that banks are playing their role effectively and with enthusiasm. BIS Review 116/2009  3  Ladies and gentlemen, Monetary Authorities and bankers come and go. But I have no doubt that HKAB and HKIB, and the spirit of co-operation that they embody, will go on for ever. I have no doubt that you will continue to promote the prosperity of Hong Kong and the wellbeing of all who live here for many years to come. I wish my successor, Norman Chan every success, and all of the happiness that I have enjoyed as Monetary Authority. As for myself, in two days' time I shall move from this very public role into the role of private citizen, with all of the pleasures and responsibilities that entails. This is an unfamiliar, possibly challenging position for me. But I have never been known to decline a challenge, and I look forward to the freedom to plan my own days and see more of family and friends, many of whom are here this evening. I wish all of you the very best of health, happiness and success. 4  BIS Review 116/2009

Jessica Chew Cheng Lian: Building back better together through a sustainable and future-ready workforce Keynote address by Ms Jessica Chew Cheng Lian, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 24th World Conference of Banking Institutes, Kuala Lumpur, 28 June 2023. ***  Introduction It is my delight and great pleasure to be a part of the 24th World Conference of Banking Institutes hosted in Malaysia this year. Let me start by congratulating the joint organisers, the Asian Institute of Chartered Bankers (AICB) and the Global Banking Education Standards Board (GBEStB) for putting together what promises to be great event, the first physical instalment since before the pandemic in 2019. Of the many challenges and equally, opportunities, that are facing the financial sector today, none in my view come close to the importance of understanding the implications of the profound change we are seeing in world of finance for its workforce. The latest Future of Jobs Report released by The World Economic Forum last month revealed that over 80% of organisations surveyed identify higher adoption of frontier technologies, broadening digital access and the application of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards as key trends most likely to drive workforce transformation. It might surprise some of you to know that early thinkers predicted similar trends on the future of work as far back as the 20th century.