samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
While that was fully justified in this instance by the unprecedented nature of the shock, the use of ad hoc tools risks embedding inappropriate expectations about how central banks might behave in future cases of market dysfunction. -  Finally, and perhaps most profoundly, the fact that the economic shock and the market dysfunction were both caused by the same exogenous event meant that a single tool – large scale, discretionary purchases of duration assets at market prices – could effectively restore both monetary and financial stability. In different circumstances, however, the optimal policy response for the two goals could diverge. III)  Central bank tools for market dysfunction: some design considerations  Drawing together the unfinished business of post-GFC thinking, the Covid experience, and the expectation of continued reliance on financial markets by households and companies, let me identify a number of tentative conclusions for the future design of central bank tools. The key points of this section are summarised in Table 1.

Are we done? Have we finished the journey? No, we're not at destination. Do we still have ground to cover? Yes, we have ground to cover. I can even go further than that: I can tell you that, barring a material change to our baseline, it is very likely the case that we will continue to increase rates in July, which probably doesn't come as a big surprise to you, but that's what I'm telling you. And this is so because we are determined to reach our target in a timely manner, and to continue to apply the principles that we have applied today: data dependency, the three elements of the reaction function, and moving meeting by meeting. Obviously, we are better informed at each projection meeting which happens, as you know, in June, in September and later. To your second question: I don't know what difference to make between a pause and a skip. I have not studied enough the press conference of my friend and colleague, Mr  4/10  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Powell. But as far as the ECB is concerned, I said what I said: we have hiked interest rates. Unless there was a material change to our baseline, we will continue to hike at our next meeting. So, we are not thinking about pausing, as you can tell. I have two questions.
The current upturn has lasted about two years. The fairly low level of growth in employment, as measured by the number of employed, must be seen in the light of the sharp decline in sickness absence through 2004. The decrease in sickness absence has reduced the need for new employees. Measured in terms of person-hours worked, employment growth was solid last year. 2  BIS Review 21/2005  Inflation was low in 2004. Underlying inflation rose by 0.3 per cent from 2003 to 2004. The unusually low rise in prices for imported consumer goods over the past few years is partly due to structural developments, primarily changes in Norwegian import patterns. It is difficult to estimate how long the effect of these changes will last. High capacity utilisation, a tighter labour market and higher wage growth imply that the rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services will move up in the years ahead. The projections for the years ahead are based on a gradual rise in the interest rate. This is in line with financial and foreign exchange market expectations. A gradual rise in the interest rate will after a period curb the strong growth in demand, and capacity utilisation in the economy will decline and then stabilise. Economic policy tasks The various components of economic policy have varying effects. This is why they have different functions: •  Monetary policy steers inflation in the medium and long term and can also contribute to smoothing swings in output and employment.

Norges Bank has voted most frequently on board-related matters. In November 2004, the Ministry of Finance approved new ethical guidelines for the Petroleum Fund’s investments. The ethical basis for the Petroleum Fund shall be promoted using the following three mechanisms: •  Corporate governance based on the UN Global Compact, the OECD Principles of Corporate Governance and the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises in order to promote long-term financial returns. •  Negative screening from the investment universe of companies that, either themselves or through entities they control, produce weapons whose normal use violates fundamental humanitarian principles. 3  Source: Kjell Gunnar Salvanes: “Omstilling og strukturelle endringer i det norske arbeidsmarkedet” (Adaptation and structural changes in the Norwegian labour market). Lecture at a conference arranged by the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association and the Foundation for Research in Economics and Business Administration in Oslo on 8 October 2004. BIS Review 21/2005  5  •  Exclusion of companies from the investment universe where there is an unacceptable risk of contributing, inter alia, to gross or systematic violations of human rights. The chart shows developments in both the average annual net real return and the real return without the contribution from active management. Returns have fluctuated considerably since the Petroleum Fund made its first investments in the equity markets in 1998. Since 1998, the first whole year the Petroleum Fund invested in equities, the annual excess return from active management has been 0.45 percentage point.
On this visit I will also meet with a wide range of people to talk about what we do and to hear first-hand the economic and financial issues important to you in the Hudson Valley so that I can best represent all my constituents in my work at the Fed. I also look forward to walking across that magnificent old railroad bridge, the Walkway Over the Hudson, for the spectacular view that I’m told awaits me. I thank the Center for Research, Regional Education and Outreach for inviting me to speak at SUNY New Paltz today. This morning I will talk about economic conditions in the nation and the region, paying particular attention to how the recession has affected the labor market here. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee (that is, the committee that sets interest rates – also known by its initials as the FOMC). Introduction to the New York Fed By way of introduction, let me start with a synopsis of what the New York Fed is, what we do and what makes my job so interesting. The New York Fed is part of the Federal Reserve System, America’s central bank, which was created by Congress in 1913. With this act, Congress delegated to the Fed System its constitutional authority to manage the supply of money in the nation’s economy.

The second issue concerning resolution I want to say something about is the allocation of losses to creditors and to the official sector from support operations. The formal position varies between support for insured deposits and for other creditors. Deposit insurance, and risk-based premia Insured deposits are, of course, insured. It is often assumed that governments stand behind such schemes. But governments do not have pick up the final tab. Such schemes are ultimately paid for by the banks themselves. Whether schemes are funded or not, governments have a legal right to make recoveries from the residual banking industry over the succeeding years. There is, still, a question of the basis of the levy. This arises most clearly in a system which guarantees 100% repayment up to some meaningful amount (now £ in the UK). While it has many merits, complete cover affects the dynamics of the market place in a potentially unhelpful way. It makes it easier for banks to pay up for deposits. The implied signal that a bank offering a high return would be taking greater risk than others, as it would have to, does not matter to the depositors. They are covered, and so are induced to place their money wherever they can achieve the best returns. That is a recipe for imprudent risk taking. One possible way of addressing it would be to make such risk-taking banks pay a higher levy into the insurance scheme.
Before dealing with the evidence of possible links between global liquidity, international portfolio flows and euro area monetary growth, it is worthwhile recalling the theoretical work by James Tobin and Harry Markowitz on macroeconomics and asset pricing. The bulk of Tobin’s work in the 1950s and 1960s was on the monetary side of macroeconomics. One of his main objectives was to establish a firm foundation for the sensitivity of money demand, or money velocity, to interest rates. He argued that people may prefer liquidity, and prefer it more the lower the interest rate on non-cash assets, because individuals are risk adverse. Over the same period, Harry Markowitz worked on portfolio choice problems, balancing risks against expected returns. Markowitz showed that under certain given conditions, an investor’s portfolio choice can be reduced to balancing two dimensions, i.e. the expected return on the portfolio and its variance. When the Nobel Prize was announced in 1981, Tobin was asked about his work at the press conference. He tried to explain for a lay audience the idea of why it is that people hold different proportions of different assets in their portfolios. 2  BIS Review 149/2007  He said, “Well, you know, diversification – don’t put all your eggs in one basket”. This explanation led to headlines around the world: “Yale Economist Receives Nobel Prize for ‘Don’t Put All Your Eggs in One Basket’”. A similar argument was made when the Nobel Prize was awarded to Markowitz in 1990.

Caleb M Fundanga: Campaign to keep Zambia clean and healthy Opening remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the review walk of the “Keep Lusaka clean, green and healthy campaign project”, Lusaka, 17 September 2009. *  *  *  The Acting Minister of Local Government and Housing, Hon Bradford Machila His Worship the Mayor of Lusaka, His Worship Robert Chikwelete The Chairman of the BAZ, Mr Saviour Chibiya Chief Executive Officers of Commercial Banks Distinguished Invited Guests Members of the Press Ladies and Gentlemen I am honored to officiate at this important occasion at which banks have undertaken to conduct a review of the “Keep Lusaka Clean, Green and Healthy Campaign”. Hon Minister, as you are aware, the “Make Zambia Clean and Healthy” campaign was launched by the Government in 2007 and was aimed at keeping our surroundings clean and green in order to improve the health standards throughout the country. You may wish to know that the banking sector through the Bankers Association of Zambia and the Bank of Zambia commenced work immediately after the national launch. A project committee was formed and each bank including the BoZ embarked on implementing the campaign by making financial contributions. To ensure a uniform landscape on all islands along Cairo Road, a single company was employed to carry out landscaping and maintenance works including maintaining and keeping the pavements and gardens clean and green.
And, as I am sure you know all too well, the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on energy and  Page 7  food prices has proved even more profound. This surge in commodity prices is incorporated into the MPC’s most recent forecasts. Given the workings of the OfGEM price cap, the full impact of recent sharp increases in European wholesale gas prices will only be felt in most British household utility bills – and thus in UK consumer price inflation – in October. The inflationary impact of the war is therefore likely to be more drawn out in the UK than elsewhere – but prove no less substantial. As a result of the direct impact of these external drivers on UK prices, headline inflation is set to be high well into 2023. Given the current tightness of the UK labour market and strength of corporate sentiment, at least over the coming year the potential for second round effects in domestic wage and price setting is obvious. Chart 4: Gas and oil prices have increased to historically high levels in recent monthsMonthly real crude oil and natural gas prices (a)  Sources: Bank of England, Bloomberg Finance L.P., World Bank Commodities Price Data and Bank calculations. (a) Monthly averages in 2021 prices. Before 1979, the oil price is for Saudi Arabian Light. From 1979 onwards, the oil price is for Brent crude. The gas price is the one-day forward price of UK natural gas.

Page 6  That remains my absolute priority – and influences how I see the prospect for both Bank Rate and the Bank’s balance sheet, as I will discuss in a moment. Drivers of the economic outlook But before doing so, allow me to review the three main drivers of the MPC’s economic outlook, as embodied in its recent forecast: international energy and good prices; domestic business and labour market conditions; and the outlook for monetary policy. International energy and goods prices The MPC’s most recent inflation forecast does not make for pretty reading. Inflation is projected to reach double digits towards the end of this year, a significant overshoot of the 2% inflation target. The bulk of this overshoot is accounted for by developments in international goods and energy prices. Bottlenecks in international markets, stemming from a pandemic-induced combination of changes in the global pattern of consumer spending and disruptions to global supply chains, have driven up the price of tradable goods, for which the UK is essentially a price taker. Belying tentative signs these bottlenecks were easing towards the end of last year, the new Covid wave in China and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have exacerbated supply disruptions, prolonging the inflationary impulse. Chart 3: CPI inflation and CPI inflation excluding energy (a)  (a)Energy prices include fuels and lubricants, electricity, gas and other fuels.
As said above, the banking sector represented the crucial part of the financial sector of the country. Therefore, it was also the one to be hit the most seriously in the course of the economic reform, especially on the credit allocation side. On the contrary, deposits continued to grow despite the negative real interest rate. BIS Review 53/2003  1  The economic transformation included deregulation of most prices, thorough foreign trade reorientation [after the collapse of the Soviet Union], enterprise privatization, tax system changes, and foreign exchange liberalization. Given the depth of the economic transformation, the transition countries achieved relatively quickly a generally stable environment after the initial shock.

Pavel Racocha: Joining the EU - Impact on the financial sector of new member states Speech by Mr Pavel Racocha, member of the Board of the Czech National Bank, delivered at the conference entitled "The Single Market for Financial Services in the EU and Its Impact on Globalization", Sydney, 3 November 2003. *  *  *  On May 1st, 2004, ten countries will join the European Union. Will the transition proceed smoothly? The main concern related to new countries joining the EU, from the point of view of the financial sector, is what impact the enlargement will have on the functioning of financial markets in new member states. Will competition in financial services increase and place a strain on institutions in accession countries or in the EU as well? Will there be visible impact at all? The new member states consist of eight former transition economies and of Malta and Cyprus. I will focus on developments in the transition countries, and especially in the Czech Republic, which I know best. I will also try to make reference to other accession countries to show that the results of developments over the last thirteen years, at least in the financial sector, are not so different. This brief presentation cannot do more than deliver only a basic description of the past development of financial markets in the transition countries and of their current standing. Hopefully the data from this presentation can serve as background information for those interested in further studies.
At the same time, as most would already try to work to the maximum extent possible immediately after arriving, each of them will have limited availability to further increase their working hours. The labour supply of each immigrant will then become rather insensitive to changes in wages. The result of this is that after a positive shock for economic activity, wages will have to increase substantially in order to convince a given set of foreign workers to satisfy the additional labour  BIS Review 59/2007  3  demanded by employers. This means that once immigration stabilises at more moderate levels than those we have recently seen in Spain, it could be more difficult for labour supply to respond to higher demand, and we’d have higher wage and price pressures. But I think the slowdown in immigration in Spain is still some way off, so we can expect new arrivals to continue having a favourable influence on output and inflation for some time to come. I am more worried about the risk that the beneficial effects of immigration could weaken the political will to reform the labour market. As we have seen, the arrival of workers with higher participation rates and lower reservation wages normally helps to increase employment and ease wage growth, at least for some types of workers. And that might leave us with a notion that the labour market is more flexible and efficient than it really is. There is a danger that policymakers become over-complacent.

To this end, the Bank of Albania will continue to work diligently for: the prudent regulation and supervision of the banking activity; the financial market and payment system development; the promotion of the financial stability of the country, as well as for bolstering the financial education and inclusion of the public. Although the challenges facing ahead are not few and far in between, I am convinced that the banking industry will continue to remain a trusted partner to Albanian enterprises and households. In conclusion, I would like to stress out that the Bank of Albania supports and encourages the structural reforms. This agenda of reforms has now found a stable anchor in the process of negotiations undertaken in the framework of the European Union membership. The continuous investment on reforms, which boost and encourage the macroeconomic stability of the country, the improvement of the business climate, the increase of efficiency and competitiveness, the improvement of human and institutional capacities, as well as the comprehensive development of infrastructure, is the one and only path toward a faster economic and social progress. 2/2  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
In fact I think we probably tend to err on the side of drawing too much, rather than too little, attention to differences of opinion within the Committee which are often largely a question of nuance. But it is better in my view to err on that side rather than to attempt to submerge the differences. We do not, however, attribute particular views to particular individuals. To do so would invite prepared statements and militate against the inter-active debate which is an outstanding and immensely valuable characteristic of our meetings. It would suppress the kind of “what if” discussion in which the same individual may explore alternative views. No attempt is made to concert the outcome of the policy decision; in fact I go out of my way to discourage any kind of collusion, whether between the internal or external members of the Committee - we are, and must remain, nine independent members, individually accountable for our decisions as to how we vote. This, of course, means that the Committee is divided as often as not; but although this initially led to public comment to the effect that the Committee did not know what it was doing and could not make up its mind, it is now generally accepted as the natural order of things and helps to underline to the public at large that monetary policy making cannot be a precise science - however much it needs to be informed by all the science available to us.

One can argue endlessly about the precise composition of the Committee, their term of appointment and so on. The key consideration for me is that all nine members need to be genuinely independent, technical experts in the field of monetary policy or a closely related field, not representatives of any particular social or industrial grouping. The objective of policy is appropriately determined by a democratic process; the Committee’s job is, as I say, a technical one, which requires relevant technical expertise. BIS Review 66/2000  4  The transparency of the Committee’s decision-making process is assured by continuation of the requirements that we should produce our quarterly Inflation Report and publish minutes of our monthly meetings, which we have now chosen to do with just a two week delay. Transparency is further enhanced by a requirement that the minutes should record how each individual member of the Committee voted on the interest rate decision. As before, it is vital for public confidence in these new arrangements that their intention is not subverted by the evolution of informal conventions - that the integrity of the procedures is respected. In this context we take great pains to ensure that the true nature of the policy debate is reflected in the minutes and that the range of views around our inflation forecast is properly reflected in the Inflation Report.