samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I will though:   update on progress towards a global Insurance Capital Standard;    talk about the fledgling UK market for Insurance-Linked Securities and our own new insurers unit;    reiterate the messages on underwriting and reserving in wholesale insurance and reinsurance markets from Anna Sweeney’s Dear CEO letter earlier this year;    discuss capital management, building on a Supervisory Statement we published in May;    share some data we collect on the sensitivity of the capital surpluses of UK life insurers to various market movements and    encourage greater consistency in disclosure of such sensitivities by insurers as well as of the drivers of changes in their capital positions over time. Update on progress towards an International Capital Standard  The International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) began work on an international capital 1  standard (ICS) for Internationally-Active Insurance Groups in 2014. A third consultation paper on ICS version 2.0 will close on 30 October. I encourage UK insurance groups to take part in this consultation and in the final round of field testing next year. The Standard will then be finalised ahead of a five-year monitoring period starting in 2020. During this period Internationally-Active Insurance Groups will report a reference ICS confidentially to their group-wide supervisors, including for discussion in regulatory colleges. But it will not be the basis of their regulatory capital requirements. Calculation of the reference ICS and the additional reporting is not meant to be burdensome.

Insurers can therefore partially reverse any deterioration in their capital position due to a higher risk margin if interest rates fall by applying to the PRA to recalculate their TMTP upwards. For example, TMTP recalculation would have reduced the decrease in aggregate capital surplus following a 100bps fall in interest rates by about two thirds as at end-2017. Conversely, if the risk margin falls because of an increase in interest rates, the PRA may require recalculation so that TMTP is not overstated. % change in surplus (excluding any TMTP recalculation  Chart 4: Aggregate market risk sensitivities for UK life insurers 50%  Aggregate market risk sensitivities for UK life insurers YE16  YE17  25%  0%  -25%  -50%  Source: Aggregated UK life insurers market risk sensitivity submissions  Some individual insurers have published many of these market risk sensitivities. But the pattern is inconsistent across firms. I held a roundtable with insurance analysts and investors on disclosure around a year ago. 9  I took away that they find Solvency II disclosures more useful than accounting disclosures, at  least in the current state of insurance accounting. And a consistent set of such sensitivities was near the top of their disclosure wish list. I hope insurers and industry groups will work towards an industry standard in this area, perhaps drawing on what they report to us.
One interesting question is whether contingent capital, i.e., debt that is converted to capital if a particular event is triggered, can be devised in such a way as to enhance capital standards. There may well be a role for contingent capital, in effect defining in advance a debt-to-equity swap. In order for such a contingent convertible capital structure to be effective, it will be  7  It will thereby be important to carefully assess the combined effect of these changes. To this end, the Basel Committee will conduct a quantitative impact study in 2010, before determining the final calibration of the improved requirements. 8  To reduce the procyclicality of capital regulation, promoting more forward-looking provisions is an additional promising avenue to pursue. In this area, progress will depend a great deal on the accounting standard setters. The Basel Committee is working closely with accounting standard setters on this issue. 9  In the case of Switzerland, several adjustments are made to total assets. Most importantly, the domestic lending business is excluded. BIS Review 145/2009  3  crucial that the converted capital be equivalent to true, loss-absorbing core capital and incorporate a precise definition of the event that triggers conversion. The Basel Committee and the FSB have committed themselves to examining this further. 10 More robust liquidity requirements The crisis has also provided a number of important lessons regarding liquidity. On the whole, banks’ liquidity holdings were clearly insufficient. This holds true for the quantity but, crucially, also for the quality of liquidity.

Nobody could tell, at the outset, to what extent the introduction of the single currency would affect the functioning of the single market of goods and services, or the very nature of financial markets or price and wage-setting behaviour across the euro area. Indeed, times of institutional change are arguably times in which private expectations may fail to converge on a focal point. The widely-held assumption has been that the statistical patterns emerging from an aggregation of pre-EMU data may not reveal much about the structure of the new economic entity, and any inference drawn on its basis may - in extreme cases - even be misleading. This is all the more likely when we consider the fact that, as far as monetary and financial convergence in the future euro area was concerned, it was based upon a concept of “benchmarking”, namely convergence towards the best performers, which suggests that aggregation of the EMS data might be even less predictive. Such a situation has called for a cautious interpretation of model results and, even more importantly, for a broad information basis in order to cross-check the interpretation of various pieces of information. This implies a need for detailed and high-quality statistics for the euro area. The construction of a comprehensive statistical support has confronted the ECB with a number of practical issues, to which I now turn. Statistics for the euro area: achievements and outlook Over the past ten years, major progress has been achieved in developing statistics for the euro area.
Crimes also reduce productivity and increase leakages in the economy as resources and manpower need to be channeled towards combating crimes instead of more productive utilization of resources. From the reputational perspective, Malaysia cannot afford to be seen as a weak link in the chain of international efforts to combat money laundering and terrorism financing. Although in the previous Mutual Evaluation in 2007, we received commendable ratings, the coming Mutual Evaluation in November this year will be based on a more holistic methodology where  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  greater focus will be on the effectiveness of our implementation. If we did not attain good rating, the consequences could be high. We do not want our country to be listed in the FATF Public Statement as country with significant deficiency in AML/CFT. As you are aware, compliance with FATF Standards helps maintain our country’s reputation and the reputation of our businesses, including financial institutions, on the world stage. Globally, a country’s rating on compliance with FATF Standards on AML/CFT is often considered as a key measure of the robustness of the country’s AML/CFT regime. Unfavourable rating would mean that Malaysian businesses, including financial institutions, would face greater scrutiny, higher costs of doing business, delays and other time consuming and unnecessary barriers when doing business with overseas counterparts. The impact of money laundering and terrorism financing risks to the financial institutions and financial system is no less severe. We all understand that financial institutions operate on the basic tenets of public confidence and integrity.

Encik Abu Hassan Alshari Yahaya: Continuing efforts to combat money laundering and terrorism financing in Malaysia Keynote address by Mr Encik Abu Hassan Alshari Yahaya, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Compliance Conference 2014, Sesana Kijang, Kuala Lumpur, 17 September 2014. *  *  *  It is my great pleasure and honour to welcome all of you today to our annual Anti-Money Laundering and Counter Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Conference. Today’s line up of programme and most importantly, your presence here today underscores our continuing efforts to combat money laundering and terrorism financing in Malaysia and the critical importance of the role that financial services industry contributes in supporting regulators, government and law enforcement to tackle and mitigate the threats. I am pleased to note that today we have close to 350 participants representing banking, insurance, takaful, investment and securities industries in Malaysia. I also would like to take this opportunity to express my appreciation to all the speakers and moderators for your willingness to share knowledge and views for the two concurrent sessions that we will be having later this morning. Money laundering is a serious global problem Money laundering is a serious global problem. At the global level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated the extent of money laundering to be at 2% to 5% of global GDP.
On the other, direct micro-level evidence on mark-up behaviour over recent years suggests a potential pick-up in their trend and variability. To the extent that the historical evidence is consistent with a sequence of larger mark-up shocks, it would be expected to have made the task of monetary policymakers somewhat harder. Both output and inflation will have deviated more significantly and persistently from their long-run values. And although interest rates will have been adjusted somewhat more often in response, the trade-off inducing nature of these shocks places constraints on the degree of stabilisation monetary policy can achieve. 20  Taylor (1979). The larger proportionate reduction in inflation than in output gap variability arises because mark-up shocks account for a larger proportion of the historical variance of inflation than output. 22 The interest rate smoothing term in the COMPASS Taylor rule will also have a role to play here in limiting the extent of the policy response to the mark-up shock. 21  10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  10  The limitations of this simulation approach need also to be borne in mind. First, the simulations consider only the effects of temporary mark-up shocks, whereas in practice shocks may have been repeated and persistent, as well as large. Second, more fundamentally, these simulations take the underlying model of the economy as given – a strong, and probably unrealistic, assumption. The competitive structure of the product market is one of the “deep parameters” in most standard macroeconomic models.

Policy is again assumed to follow a Taylor rule, with varying weights on output and inflation. Mark-up shocks have a material impact on output and especially inflation variability, even with monetary policy cushioning their effects. The variance of inflation is reduced by around a quarter, and variance of the output gap by around 10%, when mark-ups shocks are switched-off. The policy possibility frontier of 21  output/inflation variabilities is shifted outwards materially by the presence of mark-up shocks. The scope for monetary policy to cushion these shocks is relatively limited. Chart 15 plots the variability of interest rates alongside output variability, for the same set of policy rules. Mark-ups shocks affect interest rate variability relatively modestly. 22  And the variance of interest rates is reduced by only around 5% when  mark-up shocks are switched-off. This tells us that trade-off inducing shocks to mark-ups leave the (path and variability) of interest rates less affected than inflation. Clearly, this simulation places an upper bound on this shift as it effectively removes shocks to mark-ups. In practice, the evidence on how the variability of mark-ups may have evolved is mixed. On the one hand, macro evidence suggests a fall in the variability of both output and inflation in many countries recently, a finding that has been attributed by some to a lower incidence of mark-up shocks (for example, Smets and Wouters (2007) and Kapetanios et al (2017)).
Some other countries in Europe allowed costs to rise at broadly the same pace over a number of years. Now that these countries are in a downturn with a high level of spare capacity, they are improving competitiveness. If the Norwegian economy enters a downturn, the high level of costs in our country may become a hindrance in the competition for tenders and market shares. A floating exchange rate is a buffer against economic shocks. The experience of 1998 and 2008, for example, indicates that the krone will depreciate in the event of a sharp drop in oil prices. When inflation is firmly anchored, the rise in consumer prices will not accelerate even if the krone weakens. Norges Bank can then allow the krone to fall in value without having to implement a large degree of monetary policy tightening. This will dampen the downturn in the mainland economy, hence facilitating restructuring in the business sector. Should the outlook for the petroleum industry show a significant shift, Norway will have to start down the hard path of economic adjustment. What we need above all is a profitable and efficient business sector that can adapt to new times. In that respect, there are some aspects of the Norwegian economy that give cause for reflection. Chart 12: Mainland GDP – stable nominal growth On the surface, developments are positive. Nominal mainland GDP growth at current prices has been almost surprisingly stable.

At the same time, our increasing dependence on oil and gas increases the vulnerability of the Norwegian economy. We know that neither of these sources will spring eternal. The theme of my speech this evening is how to enhance the resilience of the Norwegian economy. Continued weak growth prospects, but less fear When the financial crisis washed over the Norwegian banking sector in autumn 2008, we were reminded of how dependent we are on the world around us. Nonetheless, the Norwegian economy weathered the crisis well. After about a year, the downturn in Norway was over. Chart 1: Emerging economies are driving oil demand One of the main reasons is that there is strong demand for Norwegian goods in countries where economic growth remains robust. The centre of gravity in the world economy is shifting. In the course of the next few decades, China will most likely be the largest economy in the world. Emerging economies – with China at the forefront – are the main driving force behind the increase in demand for crude oil and other commodities. As a result, prices for Norwegian export goods have remained high, even in the context of declining growth among our traditional trading partners. Chart 2: Strong improvement in terms of trade  1  From Johan Borgen’s novel “De mørke kilder” [The Dark Springs], first published in 1956, Gyldendal Norsk Forlag. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The emergence of newly industrialised economies has also led to lower import prices in Norway.
Given that objective, the determinants of aggregate demand, and a short-run trade off between output and inflation, the monetary policymaker is assumed to proceed by setting interest rates in the light of the outlook for demand relative to supply and for inflation. The central bank decides a nominal interest rate, which it establishes in the money markets 3 . As the prices of many goods and services are sticky, this has the effect of enabling the central bank to move  1  Some of the points made here were prefigured in my written submission to the House of Commons’ Treasury Select Committee ahead of a confirmation hearing on my reappointment to the MPC. See ‘Treasury Committee Questionnaire ahead of appointment hearing for Mr Paul Tucker’, The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England: appointment hearing, First Report of Session 2005-06, Volume II. 2  ‘Inflation targeting and the IMF’, International Monetary Fund, March 2006. 3  A completely new framework for doing so in the UK was introduced last week. See ‘The Framework for the Bank of England’s Operations in the Sterling Money Markets’ (the ‘Red Book’), May 2006. BIS Review 46/2006  1  around the actual short-term real rate of interest relative the ‘natural’ or ‘neutral’ real rate 4 that would prevail in the absence of those frictions. Broadly, another consequence of prices and wages being sticky, together with some inertia in inflation, is that when shocks hit the economy, the central bank cannot get inflation to return to target instantly.

The successes we have scored so far in this area will not have been possible without the support and contribution we have received from the Board of Trustees of this Charity. On behalf of the Board of Directors, Management and Staff of the Bank of Sierra Leone, I will like to thank them for their dedication and hard work. Within a short period of time the Board of Trustees comprising six members have worked tirelessly and assiduously to actualise the objectives of the Bank, and in the process attract  BIS Review 32/2008  1  the attention and admiration of the public. As a result, the Charity has started receiving contributions from individual members of the International Community. I therefore want to take the opportunity to single out the laudable gesture of Mr Paul Wilson and Mr Glyn Williams of De La Rue in England who in their personal capacities donated generously towards the Trust. As recent as this morning, the Trust has received contribution from Mrs Sheila Lee, mother of Mr Tom Lee. Their initiative is worthy of commendation. I therefore wish to thank them profusely through Mr Tom Lee who also is a member of the De La Rue family and who has been an effective Ambassador of the Trust, for their humanitarian gesture. This I believe should serve as an inspiration for our local collaborators to follow suit.
Ardian Fullani: Basel II, its implications, opportunities and challenges ahead for Albania and Southeastern Europe Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the Southeastern European Financial Forum, the Second Edition, Bucharest, Romania, 11 November 2005. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentleman, The topic to be discussed at this forum is certainly timely. You need not look any further than news headlines to understand why risk management matters so much. Several events remind us that when banks lack the commitment to manage their risk prudently, they will fail to uphold their responsibilities to their shareholders and public at large. Consequently, the cost to society can be high and the impact on the economy devastating. Sound corporate governance comes about only when there is a genuine commitment to do the right thing and to manage risks in whatever form they may arise. Risk managers must provide timely, objective and accurate information to their management. In turn, senior management and board of directors need to make sure that there is an atmosphere of transparency within the firm, one that promotes healthy and disciplined risk taking. In order to improve understanding and management of risk, the Basel Committee has been formulating regulatory approaches to foster a safe and sound banking system and greater stability within financial sector. It has become clear, though, that the 1988 Accord and many of its amendments have become outdated and overtaken by advances in the banking and the financial sector, and other economic developments.

Ultimately, the common theme in all our efforts is to further the aims of the European Union. These are to promote peace, its values and the well-being of its peoples. As the recent events in Ukraine demonstrate, these aims remain as attractive and compelling as ever. Thank you for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
Following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy last September, banks became ever more reluctant to lend to each other as a result of a sharp increase in the perceived risks of counterparty default and a continued lack of transparency about the health of banks’ balance sheets. 5 Since last October, the ECB has provided unlimited funding in euro at fixed interest rates over periods up to six months against an expanded list of eligible assets for use as collateral in Eurosystem refinancing operations. This extraordinary expansion of liquidity provided to euro area banks is reflected in the growth of the Eurosystem’s balance sheet. Between the end of June 2007 and the end of April 2009, the balance sheet of the Eurosystem increased by about EUR 600 billion, and had reached EUR 1.51 trillion which is equivalent to 16% of the nominal GDP of the euro area. By comparison, the size of the Federal Reserve System balance sheet had reached 14% of the US nominal GDP at the end of April 2009. III. The effectiveness of central bank policies  How effective have the ECB policies been in mitigating the impact of the crisis on the financial system and the economy? We can assess this by first examining the effects of the measures taken on the money and credit markets. The provision of unlimited amounts of liquidity (against adequate collateral) in the interbank money market and the sharp reduction in the ECB’s key policy rates to exceptionally low levels have resulted in a significant improvement in money market conditions.

Job losses in construction and government, however, continue to weigh down growth. Meanwhile, New York City’s unemployment rate has edged down steadily over the past year, though it remains unacceptably high at 8.9 percent. Unfortunately, as in the rest of the nation, much of the recent drop in the unemployment rate has come from people withdrawing from the labor force so that they are no longer counted as unemployed. Some of the unemployed have been able to find jobs, but not in large numbers thus far. Where do Queens’ residents find employment? While many of them commute to work in other boroughs (primarily Manhattan), Queens has a formidable industrial base of its own. As the home to the city’s two major airports, the volume of air traffic coming through Queens ranks third highest among U.S. counties. Not surprisingly, then, transportation is Queens’  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  largest industrial specialty; it accounts for 12 percent of total employment – four times the national average. Air transportation alone accounts for 6 percent of Queens’ jobs, or 15 times the nationwide share. But, of course, Queens has a diverse economy, with jobs in industries ranging from medical care to construction, not to mention printing and a number of other manufacturing industries that benefit from being in a large population center. During the recent recession, Queens’ dynamic economy was hard hit, yet it proved more resilient than Manhattan’s and much of the nation’s.