samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Compared with the June Report, only minor revisions have been made to GDP growth in Sweden up to 2002. Neither has the inflation forecast been altered more than marginally. That future inflation is not higher, even though the economic upswing is continuing and the forecast horizon has been shifted ahead, is partly a consequence of the amount of unutilised resources now being considered to be somewhat larger. Wage increases are judged to be somewhat lower, accompanied by marginally higher productivity growth. In the short run, however, inflation is expected to be somewhat higher than forecast in June, mainly because the oil price is higher and the exchange rate somewhat weaker. While the oil price and exchange rate assessments have been revised in the light of developments in the summer and early autumn, the forecast of inflation one to two years ahead still counts on a successive appreciation of the krona and a gradual fall in the price of oil. However, the uncertainty is considerable. A higher oil price and a weaker exchange rate could lead to inflation rising more rapidly than assumed in the main scenario. The assumption of a somewhat lower rate of wage increases is supported by, for example, wage outcomes to date this year as well as inflation expectations that are relatively low and stable. Still, there is considered to be some risk, albeit relatively small, of a development of wages that is considerably stronger, for example as a result of negotiators’ demands for parity and compensation.

Together with confidence in the low-inflation policy, the situation in the labour market and the coming wage negotiations will be of crucial importance for the future formation of monetary policy. The present decision to leave the repo rate unchanged for yet another while is to be seen in the light of the assessment that for virtually the whole of the time horizon the Riksbank currently appraises, inflation is calculated to be below 2%. When various alternative paths are incorporated in the assessment, however, inflation two years ahead is marginally above the target. The picture of a strong upswing in the Swedish economy still holds, with rising resource utilisation in the labour market, for example. That suggests that the repo rate may need to be raised in the future. 3  BIS Review 87/2000
As a matter of fact, the contribution of private consumption and investment spending to the recovery in advanced economies has not currently reached the desired level. The ongoing balancesheet restructuring across households and firms, and the consequent slow and protracted recovery in employment and credit conditions put a cap on private consumption and investment. Furthermore, persisting and mounting concerns over the sustainability of sovereign debt continue to pose downside risks on global economic activity, especially in the euro area. The growing discrepancy between advanced and emerging economies, which became more pronounced in the post-crisis period, is expected to continue for an extended period of time. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  5. The divergence in the pace of recovery between these two country groups has undoubtedly significant implications for inflation and monetary policy. Yet, before moving on to global inflation and the monetary policy outlook, I find it useful to mention the upward trend in commodity prices observed with the recovery process since this upsurge is becoming even more significant for both the global inflation outlook and the monetary policy. 6. The recovery in global economic activity has also been manifested in commodity prices, and the upward trend in commodity prices, which started following the peak of the crisis, continued throughout 2010. In this period, the strong course of economic activity in China and India, two countries that account for a significant share of global commodity demand, reinforced the upward trend in commodity prices.

Whatever happens, we have to achieve our primary mandate: price stability. DIE ZEIT: "Not all Germans believe in God, but all in the Bundesbank", Jacques Delors once said. The Mark was extremely popular. The euro isn't yet. What went wrong? Trichet: The euro is as stable, as credible, as a good store of value as the Mark was. And look at the figures: More than 12 million jobs have been created in the euro area since 1999 many more than in the eight years before. And around 2 million more than the US have created in the same period. Certainly, that has also a lot to do with the structural reforms that we have to continue implementing actively. But stable prices are a necessary condition for sustainable growth and job creation. DIE ZEIT: Beyond all political differences there was always an economic consensus in Europe: freedom for goods, services, labour and capital. Now the French President Nicolas Sarkozy attacks the European principle of free competition, and also European institutions, especially the ECB. What holds Europe together? 2  BIS Review 85/2007  Trichet: We live in a world of very rapid changes, thanks to science and technology, thanks to globalization. There are major changes in the division of labour. And there is a temptation in particular nations to turn the EU and the ECB into scapegoats. This is not fair. The European construction has helped us to create a level of prosperity, which has played an important role in reuniting Europe. Our values are clear.
But make no mistake – deleveraging is now a cold and hard fact of reality in many advanced countries. Let’s look more closely at the sectors involved: (1)  Households: Take the US as an example. We all know that the Americans are quite used to spending on credit. But we should note in particular that the growth in US household debts, which doubled between 2000 and 2007, had been driven mainly by more and more people looking to buy a house on mortgage. This trend has in turn caused house prices to double in a short period unseen before. Looking further back, the ratio of average debt to after-tax income of the US households had remained at 80% in the past 50 years. But it shot up to a peak of 130% in end-2007 and has been on a downward trend following the burst of the US property bubble, falling to the current level of 109%. Forced to cut debt but with rather subdued pay rises, many US households have no choice but to lessen their spending. It is still uncertain whether this process of deleveraging, i.e. increased savings and decreased spending combined, will continue. But the one thing we are certain about is that this will be a major factor affecting consumer demand in the US. Over in Europe, many countries are similarly beset with huge debts. Despite the prevailing low interest rates, efforts to cut debt have to be kept up, which can restrain consumption and impede short-term growth.

This is also in line with expectations in the money and foreign exchange markets. The interest rate was last raised in March. In line with the forecast in the March Inflation Report, there are prospects of another interest rate increase in the second quarter – at the monetary policy meeting in May or June – and a further increase thereafter. 2  BIS Review 39/2006  Conclusion Increased globalisation and the ensuing terms of trade improvements have exposed the Norwegian economy to a significant upward income shock. This has amplified the domestic upswing. So far, however, strong growth impulses have not led to major imbalances in the labour market or strong upward wage and price pressures. This may be seen as an indication that the macroeconomic framework, most notably the fiscal and monetary policy regimes, has been quite successful so far in shielding the Norwegian economy from excessive fluctuations. More importantly, as long as we adhere to the macroeconomic framework, it will shield the economy when oil prices eventually fall and our terms of trade are reversed. Thank you for your attention! BIS Review 39/2006  3
7 [13]  situation in recent years has probably made it more attractive to participate in the labour force. Monetary policy cannot solve structural challenges with greater labour supply Higher labour supply is basically positive as it should lead to higher employment in the long term – which is beneficial not least in light of the challenges we face as regards a greying population. Higher labour force participation in the long term raises the economy’s output potential, which means that the wheels can turn more quickly without the risk of overheating and rising prices, which monetary policy ultimately needs to subdue. But a prerequisite for this positive effect is that the increased labour supply also leads to higher employment. As it takes time for the labour market to adapt to rapidly increasing supply, it is likely that the increase will, in part, result in higher unemployment in the near term. High demand in the economy can facilitate the adjustment. But the extent to which greater labour supply leads to higher employment in the longer term is determined by how the labour market works and by the matching of job-seekers to vacancies. This is particularly true of groups with a vulnerable position on the labour market, for example persons born outside Europe. We have had a strong labour market in recent years and not only the labour force but also employment are now on a historically high level. The expansionary monetary policy has contributed to this development.

Migration and reforms behind labour force participation Various structural changes have meant that the Swedish labour market differs considerably from the structure in the mid-1990s, and in the ten years since the financial crisis alone, a great deal has happened. One such change is that the number of persons at the disposal of the labour market has grown significantly. Since 2006, the number of persons in the labour force aged 15–74 has increased by over half a million. 9 This means that the share of the working-age population participating in the labour force is now the highest for almost thirty years. Several factors lie behind this. The working-age population has increased, much as a result of Sweden’s substantial intake of refugees. Various reforms in recent decades have also increased the incentives to participate in the labour force by making it more profitable to work and to continue working to a more advanced age. Relatively better health and level of education also seem to have contributed to a rather large increase in the labour force participation rate among older people. 10 We should also remember that the increasingly strong economic 8 See Finocchiaro, D. et al (2016), “Macroeconomic effects of reducing household debt”, Economic Review 2016:2, Sveriges Riksbank. 9 See Flodberg, C. and Löf, M. (2017), “Labour supply has increased surprisingly rapidly”, Staff memo, Sveriges Riksbank. 10 Laun, L. and Palme, M. (2017), “The recent rise of labor force participation of older workers in Sweden,” Report 2017:18, Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
Thus at present, there are no consequences for the implementation of our monetary policy. Discussions are also currently underway at the international level on the meaning and structure of benchmark interest rates on money markets. The SNB, as member of a BIS working group, is also involved in these discussions. From the point of view of monetary policy and financial stability, the working group identifies core requirements for credible and robust reference rates. Central banks or banking oversight bodies could play a supportive role in reform efforts, inasmuch as the extensive use of benchmark rates affects the general public. However, since reference interest rates are primarily there to cover the needs of the financial markets, market participants are themselves ultimately under obligation. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

In addition, the sharp rise in stock prices led to a re-assessment of the appropriate equity risk premium. The higher that stock prices rose, the more people thought that equities had little risk. Everyone could become a millionaire with little risk or effort. 4 Similarly, in the subprime/structured finance boom, there were several important positive feedback mechanisms. In particular, the surge in credit availability drove up the demand for housing and pushed up housing prices. This increase in demand caused the default  4  In fact, one book, Dow 36,000, which was published in 1999 shortly before the stock market peaked, argued that “fair value” for the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be 36,000 because the appropriate risk premium for the equity market versus Treasury bonds should be zero. BIS Review 43/2010  3  experience associated with such lending to be very low, reinforcing the notion that subprime lending was not very risky. It also reinforced the demand for the complex CDOs secured by such assets. During the boom, the structured finance models appeared to be sound because losses on the underlying subprime mortgage loans were low and because the correlation rates in performance across different assets in the pools were low, just as the models had assumed. Fourth, the proportion of market participants who believe that a particular episode of asset price increases are justified by the innovation tends to rise as the boom persists.
Benoît Cœuré: Interview in Der Tagesspiegel Interview with Mr Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, in Der Tagesspiegel, conducted by Ms Carla Neuhaus on 19 September 2018 and published on 1 October 2018. * * *  Mr Cœuré, the financial crisis erupted 10 years ago. Is the eurozone now better prepared for a crisis? As central bankers we always need to be prepared for the next crisis. It is our job to make the financial system as resilient as possible. And a lot has been done on that front. The financial system is now much safer than it was 10 years ago. We have better regulation and higher capital and liquidity buffers in banks. Good progress has been made, but we are not there yet. Why not? There are still parts of the financial system that are not nearly as well regulated as we would like them to be. I’m thinking of the shadow banking sector, for example, meaning financial institutions that conduct activities similar to those of banks but don’t have a banking licence. Regulators still don’t have proper instruments to adequately monitor and control risks in these institutions. It would be up to politicians to change that. But are they still ready to do so, 10 years after the start of the crisis? There is indeed a risk of complacency. After all, the economy is doing well, memories of the crisis are fading, and bankers have been trying again and again to soften regulation.

But to acknowledge these complexities does not weaken the case for the importance of trying to make sensible judgments about how monetary policy should respond to asset price developments. Here are some considerations for how central banks should navigate through these challenges. 2  BIS Review 2/2006  First, in circumstances where the central bank observes a large realized movement in asset prices and is confident in its knowledge of the impact of those moves on the path of aggregate demand, monetary policy may need to follow a different path than might have seemed appropriate in the absence of those developments. In other words, when policymakers have already witnessed a significant move in asset values, and are confident in what that move means for the outlook, it should be prepared to adjust policy accordingly. Note that in order for this seemingly straightforward proposition to apply the central bank must be responding to its assessment of what an already observed movement in asset prices will mean for output and inflation. Of course central banks must always be prepared to respond when factors threaten to push aggregate demand away from aggregate supply and impact the inflation outlook. Movements in asset prices certainly have the potential to be one of those factors, and the implications of this approach apply in both directions.
Rather, they would be “frozen” and unblocked only in pre – specified circumstances (Landau, 2009). Criteria for use would not be defined on the basis of individual countries’ situations, but on consideration of the conditions prevailing in the global economy and international capital markets. If properly constructed, such a scheme may provide, for no cost, the kind of insurance that countries are currently seeking by building excess reserves. How would countries access to this new source of liquidity? The traditional approach would allocate contingent liquidity to countries according to their quota shares in the IMF. However, those are very imperfect representations of countries’ liquidity needs especially in times of crisis. Taking inspiration from the contingent capital literature, one could imagine that countries could “buy” the access to contingent liquidity in crisis times by paying, in normal times, a premium to the issuer (the IMF?). This could prove less costly than accumulating excess reserves. Going one step further, and transposing an idea from Caballero and Kurlat (2009), the IMF could issue tradable instruments giving access to contingent liquidity once it has been activated. If broadly traded between public entities, the price of such instruments would give a useful indication of underlying systemic tensions in international financial markets. Regional arrangements Another approach would privilege regional arrangements either for pooling reserves or redistributing them though permanent swap agreements. Asian countries, especially, are working on and implementing progressively such schemes through the Chiang Mai initiative.

  Finally, and most important, many oil and commodity producers face an intertemporal choice between extracting resources and keeping them on or under the ground. According to standard economic reasoning (the Hotelling rule), one important determinant is the return earned on financial assets, to be compared to the expected commodity price increase over the long run. The possibility of large valuation losses on financial assets makes it optimal to reduce the rate of extraction, which would durably lower the supply of oil and other commodities. However, there are also practical and conceptual difficulties:   A choice would have to be made as to the true nature of the “super reserve currency”. Would it be a basket of existing monies or a new “fiat” currency? If the “super reserve” is a basket of existing currencies (such as the SDR today) it would basically serve as an instrument for diversification of foreign exchange reserves (or private portfolios), and such a diversification can easily be achieved by using existing currencies. On the other hand, the “super sovereign” could be issued as such as a fiat currency. Then, the international community would have a basic choice. Either the new currency could be made “strong” and never depreciate against any other major existing currencies, which probably means that its supply would be severely restricted. Or, the “super sovereign” would be issued according to pre-specified rules, and depreciation against existing currencies could not be excluded.
Upon the emergence of the possibility of a permanent deterioration in expectations causing inflation to diverge from the targets in the medium term, the Monetary Policy Committee made effective use of the short-term interest rates as the basic policy instrument. Within this context, the Committee implemented a strong tightening policy and increased the policy rates by 425 bps to 17.5 percent in the June-July period in order to put an end to the deterioration in medium and long-term inflation expectations and also to render the inflation targets attainable in the medium term. Following this strong monetary tightening of the Monetary Policy Committee and the measures taken for financial stability, fluctuations in financial markets gradually decreased and medium and long-term inflation expectations partially improved. In this regard, inflation expectations of 12 and 24 months decreased to 7.1 percent and 5.6 percent respectively, as of the end-2006. The Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rates unchanged in the period between AugustDecember in 2006 due to this improvement observed in inflation expectations, mild progress in international liquidity conditions and a gradually favorable outlook of the future course of inflation compared to the first half of the year. 2  BIS Review 28/2007  Dear Guests, I would like to draw your attention to two rather important factors about our decisions regarding shortterm policy rates. Firstly, the decisions that the Central Bank took regarding the short-term policy rates affect the economic activities with a certain lag, as is the case with the other economies.

Mohamed S Fofana: Banking developments in Sierra Leone Statement by Mr Mohamed S Fofana, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Sierra Leone, at the launching ceremony of the new Guaranty Trust Bank logo, Freetown, 28 July 2006. *  *  *  Mr Chairman, Hon Vice President, Solomon E Berewa, Hon Ministers, Board of Directors, Management and Staff of the Guaranty Trust Bank (SL) Ltd, Distinguished Ladies & Gentlemen I am pleased to be here with you this morning at the launching ceremony of the new logo of Guaranty Trust Bank (SL) Limited. We are all aware that change is inevitable in a dynamic world. And that change itself is dynamic, which is why we are all gathered here today. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, a logo is a symbol or trademark designed for the clear and easy recognition of an institution by both its clients and its competitors. We in the Banking industry, as indeed the nation in general, have come to identify Guaranty Trust Bank with a particular logo in the recent past. The change from the old logo, which is two small squares flanking Guaranty Trust, to a new logo, which is a big orange square with a small white square at the top right side and GT Bank inscribed at the bottom of the orange square, is welcomed by the Bank of Sierra Leone.