Artificial intelligence experts are creating virtual environments to speed up the process of learning about system dynamics. “Reinforcement learning” allows algorithms to learn and update by drawing on 55  interactions among virtual players, rather than drawing on limited runs of historical experience. At least in  principle, a virtual economy would allow policymakers to engage in their own reinforcement learning, speeding up their process of discovery about the behaviour of the complex economic and financial system. Conclusion So will Big Data keep its promise? I am optimistic it will. Economics and finance needs to make an on-going investment in Big Data and data analytics if it is to rebalance the methodological scales. And early research, including at the Bank, suggests the returns to such activity could be high, deepening our understanding of the economy and financial system. These returns will best be harvested if there is strong collaboration between statistical authorities, policymakers, the commercial sector, research centres and academia. The Bank of England can play a  52  For example, Lehdonvirta and Castronova (2014). Levitt et al (2016). 54 Yanis Varoufakis has previously been involved with a similar idea: http://uk.businessinsider.com/yanis-varoufakis-valve-gameeconomy-greek-finance-2015-2 55 See https://deepmind.com/blog/deep-reinforcement-learning/ for a discussion. 53  13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  13  catalytic role in bringing this expertise together. So too can DAFM. I wish DAFM every success and look forward to working in partnership with you.

The current account surplus is comparable with our estimates of external debt payments in 2015. According to the data from transaction passports, the repayment value, including interest payments, is estimated at 120 billion US dollars this year. But, given the refinancing capacity of international markets, we estimate net external debt payments totaling 65 billion US dollars, that is twice as less as in last year. In effect, we have already passed the peak of external debt payments. Residents can make payments either buy drawing down the buffer of their accumulated foreign exchange liquid assets or from current revenues from foreign trade. The Bank of Russia foreign liquidity refinancing instruments will make it possible to fund both external debt payments and cumulative capital outflow estimated as 100–110 billion US dollars without considerable impact on the ruble exchange rate. I would like to note, that this year peak debt servicing payments are due in February and March, and payments already effected did not have any significant impact on the ruble exchange rate. Oil prices remain the main factor which can influence the ruble exchange rate dynamics. However, sustainable oil price reduction comparable to last year’s patterns does not seem feasible. The oil market will remain volatile, with oil prices changing in both directions. Oil price fluctuations are followed by fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. However, one-way change in the ruble exchange rate has stopped. This means that the exchange rate impact on the inflation will gradually wear out.