samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But this does not prevent us from exchanging information on issues relevant to monetary policy and its target fulfilment with, for instance the Riksdag Committee on Finance and the Ministry of Finance. This could, for example, involve how we view resource utilisation in Sweden and abroad. How savings and consumption develop and why. Which shocks to the macroeconomy are permanent or temporary, or how the effects of major shocks to the economy should be analysed, such as during the pandemic. The policy rate should be the main tool of monetary policy and asset purchases should be made with caution. Such purchases are particularly effective to counteract financial crises. Asset purchases in the form of government bonds may be justified in time when monetary policy needs to become more expansionary, but the threshold for extensive bond purchases to safeguard the inflation target should be high. Asset purchases can have negative side effects, which should be closely monitored. For example, markets may start to perform less well or private actors whose securities are bought by the central bank may become accustomed to the fact that there is always some form of government support when making bad deals. Moreover, the economic consequences of large asset purchases are still unclear. We therefore need more analysis and knowledge of the effects. Having said that, I would still like to emphasise that asset purchases should remain part of our toolbox. High inflation It cannot have escaped anyone's attention that inflation is currently very high.

The traditional role of central banks as the lender of last resort and keeping certain markets functioning may have the side effect of increasing risk-taking in the financial sector. If banks assume that central banks will always be there for them in a crisis, risk-taking may increase, as they will nevertheless be bailed out in a crisis situation. This needs to be borne in mind when formulating the terms and conditions for the purchases. But there is also a need for regulation and supervision  22 [30]  that can increase the resilience of the financial markets in various ways. This is important to reduce risk-taking and the likelihood that central banks will need to intervene. More analysis of the impact of asset purchases is needed Central banks' balance sheets have grown and become very large since the early 2000s, see figure 5. For example, the Riksbank's balance sheet has increased from just over 5 per cent as a share of GDP before the global financial crisis to just under 30 per cent today. Central banks have bought securities, primarily government bonds, to make monetary policy more expansionary when the policy rate has been close to the lower limit, and have also bought other securities to stabilise the financial markets. There are of course strong links between these two purposes. If there are problems on the financial markets, monetary policy has less impact on other interest rates and therefore also less impact on demand and inflation.
Using this transformation, the policy problem can be re-stated as: min(𝜋𝑡 − 𝜋 ∗ )2 + 𝜆𝑥𝑡2 𝑥𝑡  𝑠. 𝑡. 𝜋𝑡 − 𝜋 = 𝛽𝐸𝑡 (𝜋𝑡+1 − 𝜋 ∗ ) + 𝜅𝑥𝑡 + 𝜀𝑡𝜋 ∗  Because the policymaker cannot commit to future policy actions, she takes expectations as given (i.e. does not internalise the possibility that, by committing to future policy actions, expectations can be manipulated having an effect on outcomes today). The first-order condition in this case is: 2(𝜋𝑡 − 𝜋 ∗ ) Using  𝜕𝜋𝑡 𝜕𝑥𝑡  𝜕𝜋𝑡 + 2𝜆𝑥𝑡 = 0 𝜕𝑥𝑡  = 𝜅, this simplifies to: 𝜆 𝜋𝑡 − 𝜋 ∗ = − 𝑥𝑡 𝜅  giving equation (1) after using 𝑥𝑡 ≡ 𝑦𝑡 − 𝑦𝑡∗ . This optimality condition has three intuitive features. First, positive inflation gaps should be matched by negative output gaps, and vice versa. Given a quadratic loss function, it makes sense to “spread the cost” associated with shocks across both target variables, rather than loading all the cost on to one alone. Optimal policy therefore returns inflation and output back to their target  (1−𝛽𝜃)(1−𝜃)  In particular, if firms re-set their prices with probability 1 − 𝜃 each quarter, then one can show that 𝜅 ≡ , such that as 𝜃 rises 𝜃 (i.e. as prices become more sticky), the slope of the Phillips curve falls. The average duration of a price is (1 − 𝜃)−1 .

Collective financial assets as a proportion of total financial assets Per cent  60  60 All sectors Private sector  50  50  40  40  30  30  20  20  10  10  0  0  1810  1830  1850  1870  1890  1910  1930  1950  1970  1990  2010  Source: Hasselberg and Ohlsson (2016)  With regard to the funded pension savings, the period with low interest rates has been a strain. Yield has been low and this has put pressure on the pension funds to meet the guarantees in their insurance plans. This has sometimes been raised as a negative effect of the expansionary monetary policy, but the problem – to the extent that it is a problem – is rather connected to the global falling trend in longterm real interest rates. 10 In light of this, economic agents need to adjust to interest rates probably not returning to the levels we previously considered normal. But at the same time, it is important to remember that interest rates in the long term will nevertheless be much higher than they are now. Price stability creates good conditions for economic growth and high employment If I am to summarise my presentation today, let me first say that I think it is a good thing that distributional effects are once again being discussed with regard to monetary policy.
During this stage, the Fed’s monetary policy implementation regime worked in such a way that control over the size of its balance sheet, and more specifically over the level of excess reserves, was essential to ensure that the Open Market Desk could control the fed funds rate in a manner consistent with the FOMC’s monetary policy objectives. Had the Fed’s special liquidity facilities grown sufficiently large during that period, raising the level of the excess reserves in the banking system, the fed funds rate would likely have fallen far below the FOMC’s target rate. To keep the fed funds rate around the target, the only sure-fire option was to avoid a significant expansion in the balance sheet by funding the expansion of nontraditional assets, such as TAF loans, FX swaps, and PDCF loans with similarly sized liquidations of the Federal Reserve’s portfolio of Treasury securities. Thus, over the period from August 2007 up through the time of the Lehman Brothers failure in September 2008, the total size of the Fed’s balance sheet and the level of excess reserves in the banking system changed very little. The second stage began in October 2008 when the Federal Reserve gained the authority to pay interest on reserves, including excess reserves. The addition of interest on reserves to the Fed’s toolkit effectively broke the link between the size of the Fed’s balance sheet and the stance of monetary policy.

In the bank’s drive for excellence and customer satisfaction, the Bank of Sierra Leone has continued and will continue to create the enabling environment for safe and sound banking. For instance, in collaboration with other stakeholders, the Bank of Sierra Leone is putting in place measures to implement all provisions of the Anti-Money Laundering Act so as to prevent money launderers using our financial system for their criminal activities. A recently concluded workshop organised by UNODC/GIABA//Bank of Sierra Leone succeeded in drafting a National Anti-Money Laundering Strategy with the aim of providing a framework for an Anti-Money Laundering regime that will ensure effective crime prevention and detection, and at the same time avoid creating excessive burden on the financial system and its users. The workshop attracted various stakeholders, including the Association of Commercial Bankers in Sierra Leone to which GTB is an active member. The Bank of Sierra Leone shall continue to maintain the open door policy and encourage dialogue in the process of ensuring a sound and stable financial system. BIS Review 79/2006  1  Mr Chairman, Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to close this brief remarks by once again congratulating the Board, Management and staff of the Guaranty Trust Bank (SL) Limited for another step taken to enhance the public image of the bank. I thank you for your attention. 2  BIS Review 79/2006
At the same time, it must develop this policy framework, for which no template exists and for which the analytical background captures only parts of the tasks. In the medium term, the ESRB and the macroprudential authorities of the 27 EU countries will need operational policy frameworks with specific instruments. The ESRB is ready to support – at a technical level – the work that European institutions have started to design the implementation of countercyclical capital buffers. Other macroprudential instruments are also desirable. Work on these issues has been initiated. For example, new rules on margins and collateral should counteract the fluctuations of the cycle. The specific capital requirements for risk-weighted assets might also be adjusted over the cycle. When these macroprudential instruments are established, possibly around the middle of this decade, the authorities will finally have tools to mitigate the pro-cyclical behaviour of financial  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  players. Authorities will set part of the regulatory requirements not against the solvency or liquidity situations of single institutions, but taking a view of the macroprudential cycle. Other instruments will be needed to address interconnectedness, including the most complex and innovative elements of market functioning. One specific focus of authorities is to ensure that efficient and secure central counterparties are created to reduce risks in OTC markets. Concentration risks produced by increasingly large financial institutions in trading and posttrading will also need to be addressed.

Puerto Rico’s economy has, unfortunately, been in a deep economic slump that has lasted for nearly a decade. Over the past few years, public sector job losses have continued to weigh against modest job gains in the Island’s private sector. And ongoing difficulties in the Island’s labor market continue, with labor force participation still alarmingly low, and unemployment stubbornly high at a rate well above the mainland’s. The good news is that we are finally beginning to see some firming in economic conditions on the Island. At the other end of the spectrum, New York City has been experiencing a robust recovery. While the Great Recession was clearly the worst post-war downturn in U.S. history, New York City was not as badly affected as the rest of the country. As of April, almost five years since the end of the recession, the nation has recovered nearly all of the jobs that were lost. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  By contrast, New York City reached this milestone more than two years ago. And, as we’ve highlighted in previous press briefings, this rebound has occurred despite the lack of any significant recovery in employment on Wall Street. The recovery has generally progressed at a more moderate pace in the other parts of our region. Consistent with historical patterns, Upstate New York as a whole has been growing modestly, with Buffalo and Rochester doing a little bit better than their upstate peers.
Esteemed Press Members, Overall, we expect aggregate demand conditions to support the downward trend in the underlying inflation, i.e., inflation excluding items beyond the control of monetary policy such as energy, food and tobacco prices. Hence, barring new supply shocks, headline inflation should continue to move towards the target. The speed of the convergence to the target, however, will depend mainly on the course of food and energy prices. Distinguished Guests,  10  BIS Review 20/2008  Our forecast in the 2007 October Inflation Report incorporated two main assumptions: The assumption for oil price was set as 70 USD per barrel. Observing the high base created by the unusually elevated food prices in 2006, we assumed food inflation to correct towards the values consistent with medium term inflation in 2007. However, food and energy inflation turned out to be more persistent than we had envisaged, as the prices of oil and agricultural commodities continued to rise throughout 2007. These developments not only led to an undershooting of our inflation projections for end-year 2007, but also necessitated an upward revision in our medium term forecasts. In this framework, we revised our assumption for oil prices from USD 70 to USD 85 per barrel in 2008. Higher oil price assumption added about 0.5 percentage points to the end2008 inflation forecasts.

This observation shows that inflation target, to a significant extent, continue to serve as an anchor and that economic agents expect the disinflation process to continue in the medium term. Nevertheless, the fact that currently medium-term inflation expectations are significantly above our medium term target of 4 percent necessitates a cautious policy stance 1 . Figure 10: Medium-Term Inflation Expectations* 9 12-Month  24-Month  8  7  6  5  0108  1107  0907  0707  0507  0307  0107  1106  0906  0706  0506  0306  0106  1105  0905  0705  0505  0305  0105  4  Expectations regarding the period after 24 months have been published since May 2006. Source: CBRT. 1  As of January, one-year and two-year ahead inflation expectations are 6.01 percent and 5.17 percent, respectively. BIS Review 20/2008  7  3. Inflation and monetary policy outlook  Distinguished Guests and Press Members, After summarizing inflation and monetary policy developments in 2007, in this part of my speech, I would like to share our evaluations on inflation and the monetary policy outlook. First of all, I would like to summarize several factors that might enable the disinflation process to continue in the upcoming period: Annual percentage change in CPI excluding food, energy and tobacco imply an inflation trend of 4.8 percent (Figure 11) 2 . In other words, underlying inflation in the past year was not far away from the medium-term targets.
Core inflation is estimated to have stabilised in January, albeit tentatively, at the elevated rate of 5.2% year-on-year, according to the Eurostat Flash estimate. There are other “exclusion-based” indexes that better strip out the effects of transient shocks to items other than food and energy. These indexes are less volatile than the “core” HICP measure and can thus provide a better reflection of the fundamental trends in inflation.12 However, in the current phase, these indicators are not best suited for identifying real time shifts in the persistent component of inflation. 12  Trimmed mean HICP is a real time index that excludes those items hit by large, one-off shocks at that time. It thus gives a reliable reading of underlying inflation pressures. Fine core HICP eliminates most of the problems involved in analysing underlying trends. For a presentation of the fine core indicator developed by the Banque de France, see Lalliard (A.) and Robert (P.-A.) (2022): “A possible new indicator to measure core inflation in the euro area”, Banque de France Bulletin, No. 240/1. 15  Page 16 of 19  Compared with these exclusion-based indicators, the Persistent and Common Component of Inflation (PCCI)13 constructed by the ECB has the merit of including the impact of medium-term shocks to energy and food, to the extent that they have common effects. By construction,14 the PCCI can also potentially provide earlier signals of turning points in underlying inflation. For example, the PCCI was the first indicator to signal the rise in inflationary pressures in 2021.

Abu Hassan Alshari Yahaya: SMEs and financial inclusion Speech by Mr Abu Hassan Alshari Yahaya, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Credit Guarantee Corporation Malaysia Berhad (CGC) SME Awards 2018, Kuala Lumpur, 27 June 2018. * * * It is my pleasure to address you this evening at the SME Awards hosted by Credit Guarantee Corporation Malaysia Berhad (CGC). I would like to commend CGC for the continuous effort in championing the SME cause, and in recognising the banking and financial industry players that have made meaningful contribution in supporting the SMEs. As mentioned by Dato’ Agil, ‘Digital Disruption’ has become the new normal not only for the banking and financial industry, but also for other sectors and industries. We have seen the fortunes of traditional businesses changing overnight with technological disruption. In fact, the financial industry may at times need to play catch up to ensure products and services are relevant in a new digital economy. We believe CGC will continue in its efforts to be agile and dynamic in embracing the higher expectations of meeting the financing needs of SMEs moving into the future. SMEs and Financial Inclusion In broad terms, financial inclusion means access to affordable financial products and services that meet the needs of individuals and businesses and that are delivered in a responsible and sustainable manner. At Bank Negara Malaysia, we recognise the impact of financial inclusion on the broader economic performance of our country.
This is the immediate task ahead because we need to do all we can to clear up uncertainty here. Before going on, let me deal with two points that are related to this argument. First, it is said that this stance on capital is unnecessary because banks have stronger capital positions now than they did in the height of the crisis. This statement on the capital position now relative to the past is true but on its own that part does not tell us whether they have enough capital now. UK banks have made substantial progress over the last four years in building their resilience, but from a low base, it has to be said. There is further to go, but we should not forget the distance that has been travelled. The second point I want to deal with here concerns forbearance, namely the extension by banks of a variance in the terms of loans, which involves forgiveness of various forms. It is easy to imply that forgiveness is a bad thing, turning Japanese in the unfortunate sense of that term. Rather, we should deal with the consequences of forgiveness, not prevent it. The reason for that is because forgiveness has a very good side to it, namely that fewer jobs are lost and fewer homes re-possessed where it takes place. And we can see evidence of both of these in the latest recession relative to previous ones.

Affordability risks of new mortgages financing residential investment property are high and have risen further. These developments have taken place against a background of persistent imbalances in the mortgage and real estate markets. Both mortgage-lending volume and prices for single-family houses and apartments continued to rise at a moderate rate in 2019. Although prices of residential investment property have stagnated of late, there is still a risk of a price correction in this segment in particular. On the one hand, this is due to the sharp price increases in previous years. On the other, larger numbers of vacant dwellings suggest that brisk construction activity in rental apartments may have led to an oversupply. Despite banks’ high risk appetite and the persistent imbalances in the markets, SNB stress tests suggest that the resilience of the domestically focused banks remains adequate overall. Thanks to robust capitalisation, most of these banks would be able to absorb the losses incurred in adverse scenarios. Given the risks I just mentioned, this is positive. It is crucial for the stability of the financial system that banks continue to hold sufficient capital to be able to cover the risks on their books. Ongoing pressure on margins means that the incentive for domestically focused banks to take on risks remains high. This applies to mortgage lending in particular. The revised selfregulation rules for banks in the residential investment property segment, which come into force at the beginning of 2020, should help to prevent a further build-up of risks in this segment.
If a marketplace has a high level of liquidity in an asset, many people will probably trade there, as they will be able to trade at the best, that is to say, the most correct prices. If a marketplace has liquid trading in one asset, it will often attract trade in other assets, as other companies want their instruments to be traded on a marketplace with many participants. In other  BIS Review 66/2004  3  words, there are natural tendencies towards concentration in financial instruments trading. The same applies to settlement and registration of ownership. However, technological developments have enabled increasing integration of the various parts of the transaction chain. This has also created incentives to establish automated systems all along the line, from order placement to settlement. The result is a vertical integration, where different stages of the value chain are integrated. Integration requires cooperation between, or even a merger of, the various parts of the infrastructure. Even if this, as I have mentioned earlier, leads to lower transaction costs, it is not certain that these cost reductions will benefit the end customers. When all of the stages of the chain are implemented automatically and ownership of the various parts may even lie with the same organisation, everyone will be dependent on a single supplier. This creates a risk that pricing will follow monopoly principles, which rarely benefits the economy.

You have probably seen pictures of bank runs – when queues form outside banks in crisis as people want to withdraw their money in the form of (safe) cash. This is why central bank money is still the linchpin of the system, even if it is rarely used in normal circumstances. The fact that it is available as an alternative acts as a kind of guarantee for the private bank money. 4 It is also the case that some key systems for payments are increasingly concentrated to a few agents. See, for instance, the card payment market where two American companies are entirely dominant in Sweden. Unlike our neighbouring countries, we do not have any domestic card payment network. This means that we are dependent on foreign infrastructures to make the majority of households’ payments. Without cash, therefore, an important part of the Swedish infrastructure would be completely in private ownership and dependent on foreign infrastructures and foreign companies. So if the use of cash continues to decline, it is not enough to say that this works fine at present, because the future will look rather different, regardless of whether we produce an e-krona. Other functions that cash has performed include functioning as a back-up when there have been disruptions to other forms of payment. It has also helped ensure  3  See, for instance, Fung et.al. (2018) and Söderberg (2018). 4 See, for instance, Tobin (1985).