samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Fiscal sector developments   Fiscal prudence has improved over the past years, with domestic revenues performing well following higher collections of value added taxes, as well as income taxes from mining companies.   This in effect has also been seen in increased government expenditure on growthsupporting activities such as infrastructure and social sector spending. Over the last few years, Government has also reduced its borrowing from the banking sector, thereby avoiding the crowding out of the private sector and contributing to downward movements in interest rates. Financial sector developments   The overall financial condition and performance of the financial sector in 2010 was satisfactory, as reflected in adequate capitalisation and most financial institutions meeting their minimum regulatory requirements.   The banking sector was adequately capitalized and asset quality, liquidity and earnings performance remained satisfactory. The Bank granted a licence to International Commercial Bank (Z) Limited, bringing the number of commercial banks operating in the country to 18.   Similarly, the overall financial performance and condition of the Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) in 2010 was fair. On average, the leasing finance institutions and bureaux de change sub-sectors reported adequate capital, fair asset quality, liquidity position and earnings performance. Prospects for 2011   Several indicators point to continued strong economic performance in 2011.   Real GDP is projected to grow by at least 6.8 percent and will continue to be driven by strong performance in the agricultural, mining, construction and tourism sectors.

While this upturn in home prices is encouraging, it has been considerably weaker than in other parts of our region and also weaker than nationally. The New York Fed’s measures of regional credit conditions suggest continued financial challenges for families here. As of the first quarter of 2013, average debt per person was about $ in Connecticut and over $ in Fairfield County – little changed over several years. The county’s delinquency rate on that debt is now 5.7 percent, similar to the national average. And the mortgage crisis continues to take a toll on local homeowners. As of the first quarter, about 6 percent of mortgage debt in Fairfield County was 90-plus days delinquent, slightly higher than the national delinquency rate. It is also important to recognize the county’s strengths that will support recovery and the rise in household income over the longer term – over and above just being close to a thriving New York City. In particular, the above-average educational attainment of residents and the numerous educational institutions position the area well to move into the expanding knowledge-based economy. Also, its diverse industry mix has a good representation of jobs in high-paying sectors and the area maintains its attractiveness as a location for corporate headquarters. Thank you for your kind attention and I will now be happy to take a few questions. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches
To the extent that the real exchange rate also weakens, it contributes to an increase in net exports, as the relationship between export and import prices changes.3 Two of the three channels for monetary policy thus have an impact by affecting demand and supply with regard to credit in the economy. One sometimes also talks about a fourth channel; the risk-taking channel, which means that a lower interest rate contributes to the banks increasing their risk-taking when lending.4 All in all, it is clear that monetary policy has an effect on household debt and asset prices, although it can be difficult to determine exactly how large and how lasting this effect is. We have limited experience of low interest rates over longer periods of time. There is a clear risk that the current low interest rates will encourage greater indebtedness than is reasonable in a long-run perspective. But, at the same time, the interest rate is a blunt instrument to manage the risks linked to household debt and house prices. One reason for this is that an adjustment in the interest rate also affects the economy through the exchange rate channel, which has further effects on inflation and the real economy. But the impact of the interest rate can also be too broad in other ways, such as when one wishes to slow down household borrowing but not corporate investment.

The difference is that they are still not done and cannot hope for a rebound that might otherwise be there. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
2 In addition, a regime with common, harmonized standards helps to reduce compliance costs for U.S. firms that  operate internationally. 3 However, we should recognize that in the current setup large banks pay a price for being systemically important  in terms of higher capital requirements and the need to maintain a large cushion of TLAC. Combined with the requirement to develop living wills and to simplify their operating models and their business, this should eliminate any competitive advantages associated with potential availability of Title II. 6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches

As Mr Duisenberg stressed, this event was more than a mere technical presentation, but took on an historical and symbolic dimension. On 1 January 2002, we will have the honour of witnessing the largest currency changeover that the world has ever experienced. This will be the crowning achievement of a long economic and political process which led to the creation of Monetary Union on 1 January 1999. This unique event in European history will help to ensure lasting prosperity, which is not only in Europe’s interest but that of the rest of the world as well. Lastly, speaking in front of bankers, financial institutions, business executives and journalists, I would like to make the following remarks as regards the present situation: -first, the main message in the present exceptional circumstances, is that the first quality of all Institutions, all economic leaders, all enterprises as well as households is to keep one’s nerves. The best gift we could give the terrorists would be to change our plans, to cancel endeavours, to delay decisions, to reduce investment or consumption. We, Institutions, enterprises, individuals had and have projects : let us realize them, in time, and unchanged. -second, let us beware of fashion. It was still fashionable, a year ago, to embark on vibrant eloge of the new economy, to predict the end of the business cycle and to forecast for ever very high level of productivity progress and buoyant economic growth.
So it is not that we envisage problems for the financial system or the economy as a whole but rather that individuals and households could run into difficulties. That of course is unfortunate enough. That there does not appear to be any general overvaluation in the housing market does not in any way mean that prices cannot fall in the future either. At least from some media reports in conjunction with the Financial Stability Report the impression was that the Riksbank was almost guaranteeing that future price declines would not happen. That of course is something we cannot do. In our main scenario we do expect average house price inflation to moderate gradually – but still to remain positive – when interest rates normalise, but that does not mean that house prices cannot fall in parts of the country where they are highly elevated. Nor does it rule out a more general drop in prices in the period ahead, even though any such decline is likely to be less drastic than if prices had shot up in a way that could not be explained by developments in underlying factors. That could be the case if, for example,  2  BIS Review 88/2005  incomes were to fall in a way that we cannot foresee today. Of course, things can also happen beyond the forecast horizon that cause house prices to drop.

Allow me to come back to that in a moment and just say here that even in the event of such a more general price fall we do not deem there to be any immediate risk of problems for financial stability. The reasons again are those I gave earlier, chiefly that households on the whole can afford their homes and that experience shows that the household sector seldom causes any significant problems for the banks. So the Riksbank does not view the developments in house prices and household debt as a danger to the stability of the payment system. House prices, demand and inflation As I indicated in the beginning, developments in house prices are important to monitor also, and perhaps even mainly, because they have potential implications for the Riksbank’s second objective – price stability. If house prices fall, households’ willingness to consume goods and services – their demand– declines. If prices drop at a measured rate over a long period it does not have to be a problem. If the price decline occurs rapidly there is reason for greater vigilance. How then do house prices affect the activity level in the economy? This can happen through various channels. One such channel – which I only intend to mention in passing – is housing construction. The higher house prices are, the more profitable it is to build them, all other things being equal.
While there is a case for Asian regulators to perhaps concentrate their Basel II implementation efforts initially on the Standardised Approach, they would eventually like to see their banks, those large ones in particular, adopt the IRB Approach over time as adopting the IRB Approach can substantially enhance the quality of risk management of banks. Moreover, Asian regulators including the HKMA find ourselves in the position of playing host to many large and internationally active banking groups that propose to adopt the IRB Approach globally, including their operations in our jurisdictions. In consequence, we need to develop plans for the adoption of the IRB Approach in our domestic banking  BIS Review 120/2007  1  environment. In doing so, we need to balance the readiness of the industry and other supervisory priorities versus the desirability of implementation of the IRB Approach. On readiness of the industry, we believe that there are three key challenges facing banks in Hong Kong and probably other jurisdictions in Asia. First, the adoption of the IRB Approach by banks does not merely involve the use of sophisticated quantitative tools, but also corresponding advances in banks’ risk management practices, culture, internal control and corporate governance. This is essentially the underlying and overarching principle of the IRB and other advanced approaches provided under the Basel II framework.

As I said earlier, I believe that we must take the risks associated with financial imbalances into account in our monetary policy decisions as the level of household indebtedness is so high. Why not lower the repo rate more when unemployment is high? One of the arguments put forward for further repo-rate cuts is that unemployment is high (see Figure 14). I have a lot of understanding for this argument. So why not cut the repo rate more? Here I would like to point out once again that we have lowered the repo rate and the repo-rate path several times over the last 12 months, partly with particular reference to unemployment. However, our analysis shows that the relatively high rate of unemployment also reflects structural problems. For example, there are signs that the matching of job-seekers with job vacancies has deteriorated in recent years, which makes it difficult to reduce unemployment. Figure 15 clearly shows that while the number of unemployed in non-vulnerable groups has fallen in recent years, the number of unemployed in the more vulnerable groups has instead increased. 6 This illustrates the matching problems on the Swedish labour market. But even while focusing on unemployment, monetary policy must take a long-term view and strive to avoid problems further ahead. A low repo rate may provide short-term gains, but “if we go too far down that road” problems will be waiting for us, including problems regarding unemployment.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11

Our regular press conferences where we inform you and the general public about current economic and financial conditions, as well as about our expectations, as you know, are based entirely on data. It is not always possible to put a detailed analytical focus on everything that is available and which we produce as data. But that’s why we live in the “era of Internet statistics". Let’s take for example the interest rate statistics available on our website. If analyzed in details, its granularity is very high, offering a great deal of information on the amount of interest on different types of deposit and credit products, which can be helpful for all of us to make a 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  personal financial decision based on information. As one of the bearers of our statistical system, we also observe the public’s need for new categories of statistical data and within our competencies we try to respond to that need. Among other things, we have introduced new data on payment card transactions, the monitoring of which will be discussed today. Over the past years, aware that traditional forms of data display are no longer the most appropriate way of disseminating data, with the support of the European Union we have created a modern statistical web portal “NBStat". According to multiple analyzes conducted in the central banking community, advanced web-based statistical web portals are the most upto-date statistical tool that disseminates data in the simplest, fastest and most detailed way.
The current number of long-term unemployed is still higher than the prior cyclical peak in June 2003, and is more than a million above the prior cyclical low in October 2006. Further progress on transitioning these unemployed workers back into jobs requires sustained effort on many fronts. Essential to this effort are programs such as the Platform to Employment developed by The WorkPlace. I am looking forward to my visit there later today to hear more about this program. The Platform to Employment program has been replicated in nearly 20 communities across the country from Newark to San Diego. Helping the longterm unemployed regain employment needs to be a priority for all of us. The ongoing challenge in reducing the number of long-term unemployed is also a reminder of the importance of financial stability and sustainable economic growth. Recessions can quickly undo years’ worth of hard-earned progress in the labor market. Making the financial system and the economy more resilient so we can avoid such deep downturns in the future is a responsibility that I take very seriously. Local economic outlook Turning now to the region, while Fairfield County’s economy has recovered from the Great Recession, its job growth has lagged behind both New York City and the nation. Only recently has employment approached its pre-recession levels, and it is still well shy of where it was back in 2000. Other barometers of the Fairfield County economy, such as home prices, also indicate a slow recovery from the recession.

In contrast, manufacturing production – which had been a particular weak spot of the U.S. economy in 2015 – rose in the first two months of this year. Recent survey data, including our own Empire State Manufacturing Survey, indicate further improvement in conditions for the manufacturing sector in March. Through it all, the U.S. labor market has remained healthy. Payroll employment increased an average of about 229,000 per month over the course of 2015, and the gains in the first quarter of this year were nearly as high. Even though the unemployment rate ticked up in March to 5 percent, the amount of slack in the labor market still appears to be diminishing. Both the share of the population that is employed and the labor force participation rate have risen a bit over the past several months, with the employment-to-population ratio now at its highest level since the end of the recession. However, measures of aggregate wage growth have remained quite subdued, which suggests there is still some slack in the labor market. An important question is how to reconcile these cross-currents. I continue to anticipate that consumption and housing activity will expand at a moderate pace this year. Continued job and wage gains, combined with still-low energy prices, should sustain real disposable income growth and support consumer spending. The housing market should remain on a solid trajectory, supported by rising employment and low mortgage rates. In contrast to previous years, fiscal policy should also provide a moderate stimulus this year.
Andrew G Haldane: The corridor of uncertainty Speech by Mr Andrew G Haldane, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Monetary Analysis and Statistics, Bank of England, at the Scarborough Business Ambassadors’ Dinner, Scarborough, 18 June 2014. *  *  *  The views are not necessarily those of the Bank of England or the Monetary Policy Committee. I would like to thank Gareth Anderson, Andrew Bailey, Maria Barriel, Charlie Bean, Venetia Bell, Stephen Burgess, Matt Corder, Shiv Chowla, Jeremy Franklin, Jack Leslie, Bob Gilhooly, Varun Paul, Jon Relleen, Matt Roberts-Sklar, Jumana Salaheen, Matt Trott, Martin Weale and Tom Wise for comments and contributions. It is wonderful to be back in Scarborough. I say back because many of my earliest and fondest childhood memories were of summer holidays spent here. Being a cricket fan, the Scarborough Festival – the cricketing jamboree held at the end of August each year since 1876 – has always held a place in my imagination. Alas I have never been, but am hoping one day to break my duck. I want to discuss the economy and the role of monetary policy in supporting it. And with apologies to the non-cricketers in the audience, to do so I will borrow a cricketing metaphor – the “corridor of uncertainty”. The corridor of uncertainty is every bowler’s dream and every batter’s nightmare.

For the first 60 of those years, real pay growth grew steadily at over 2 ¼% on average each year. Over the past 10 years, real pay growth has averaged minus 0.4% – a “lost decade” for the average worker. Despite some recovery recently, that leaves the inflation-adjusted pay of the average UK worker still over 5% lower today than it was just prior to the crisis. You have to go back to the 19th century to find a similar period of stasis in UK living standards. The UK’s jobs bonanza has been accompanied by a pay disaster. Chart 7: Real pay Index, 2007 = 100 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Sources: ONS, Bank of England Millennium of Data and Bank of England calculations. Notes: Data at annual frequency using AWE deflated by CPI. Prior to AWE and CPI we use AEI and RPI, respectively, to extend the series backwards. 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7  These falls in real pay have been widely spread geographically. Chart 8 compares average real wage rises across UK regions in the ten years either side of the global financial crisis. In the ten years prior to the crisis, all regions experienced annual rises in real pay, averaging between 1.3% (Wales) and 2.2% (London). These pay rises were roughly in line with pre-crisis economic growth rates.
Significant credit is, of course, due to your part, especially your ability and willingness to uphold normal service for your clients here, as well as your cooperation with your supervisors in ensuring strong risk-management. Going forward, we look forward to this strong and beneficial relationship, to help us meet the challenges posed by the global economic and financial developments. Therefore, I would like to take this opportunity today to convey our appreciation, as well as to share with you the key challenges we see going forward, and to outline the reforms which in our views are key for Thailand and emerging markets in this context. My talk today will be divided into two parts. First, I will look at the current debate on regulatory reform, focusing on the measures being discussed at the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision. I will highlight the key proposals, the timeline, and the process being discussed. Secondly, I will share with you our input on the debate at global forums, and the reform that we consider to be our priority, going forward. I believe our reform agenda will be useful for you as practitioners, as the global reform covers a very expansive and comprehensive set of policy, and for banks operating in many jurisdictions, the required adjustment to ensure compliance can be significant. This process can be facilitated by setting a clear and transparent priority. Let me now turn to the first part of my talk, the update on global debate on regulatory reform.

Christian Noyer: France’s banking industry in 2006 – key trends Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the French Banking Commission, at the presentation of the 2006 Annual Report of the French Banking Commission, Paris, 29 June 2007. *  *  *  Welcome to this press breakfast, organised for the release today of the 2006 Annual Report of the Commission Bancaire. I would like to discuss the key trends that characterised France's banking industry in 2006, not just in terms of structure and performance but also the regulatory environment in which it operates. It is clear that the framework for financial activity and banking risk management has changed in recent months, confirming the ever more urgent need for new methods of risk assessment and for appropriate supervision that can react swiftly to these changes. In my view, several factors are important in this respect. First, in a highly international context, banks' performances are increasingly being judged from the outside, especially by shareholders. Those judgements are sometimes so harsh that they can have a direct structural impact. Consequently, banks can no longer afford simply to post excellent results – as again was the case in 2006 for most major international banks, especially French banks. They must also make sure that the underlying quality of those results is sound. To do this, they must pay special attention to the way they manage risks internally and plan their strategic expansion, and to their capital adequacy policy.
The Eurosystem has been a very efficient firefighter during the crisis and is doing its best to contribute, within its mandate, to building a more dynamic growth path for the euro area, through its monetary policy. However, the success of monetary policy still needs to be complemented with a genuine economic union to achieve the European project. This is now the responsibility of the architects, including the next governments in France and Germany. 1 business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/robert-mundell-euro-is-here... 2 If we take the rule of thumb once used by John Williams, the President of the SF Fed. 6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches

Ladies and Gentlemen, our country needs professionals with high levels of social and moral awareness so that all of us are aware of the moral obligations and potential impact of our thinking, decisions and actions. We need to be good role models for others in behaviour, attitude and relationships. Let us endeavour to act in a way that is professional and that retains the confidence of the public at all times. I thank you for your attention. 2  BIS Review 159/2009