samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Even if this has a negative effect on the unemployment figures in the short run, it is essentially positive and bodes for a future fall in unemployment. Countries with a floating exchange rate appear on the whole to have managed better. However, I would of course prefer to believe that the relatively favourable economic development has been due not only to the choice of exchange rate regime, but also at least partly to the economic policy we have conducted. Expansionary monetary policy, but with an eye on debt During the financial crisis, the Riksbank cut the repo rate rapidly and substantially. After the crisis we have continued to hold the repo rate low to support the recovery. But as we have  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  made the assessment that if the repo rate is too low it will entail a risk of exaggerated household debt and inflated housing prices, monetary policy has not been quite as expansionary as it might otherwise have been. We have thus held the repo rate slightly higher than we would have done otherwise, and have, so to speak, stepped on the accelerator just enough during the recovery phase to ensure that developments are not just reasonable in the short term, but also sustainable in the longer run.1 As I see it, there have been good reasons for this.

In a comparison of the profile in 2016 with the profile in 2005 and 2010, the most striking feature is that interest burdens rise in many age groups. The age profile itself is little changed. A similar chart showing the distribution of higher interest expenses across income deciles would have shown the same picture. Even though many households will feel the effects of higher interest expenses, the increase will be manageable for most people. The share of households with high debt relative to income, low debt-servicing capacity and a high loan-to-value ratio is small, and lower than just a few years ago (Norges Bank (2017)). Chart: Higher bank deposits dampen some of the effect of higher debt How quickly an interest rate increase will lead to lower growth in consumption also depends on the size of households’ financial buffers. Buffers in the form of bank savings can be drawn down if interest expenses rise, reducing the need to adjust consumption. Even though some households have little in the way of financial buffers, many households’ buffers are larger than just a few years ago. Despite the rise in debt ratios between 2010 and 2016, an interest rate increase will lay claim to a smaller share of bank deposits, particularly for the groups with the highest level of net debt. This will counteract some of the effect a higher level of debt has had on 6/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  the impact of an interest rate increase via the cash-flow channel.
The choice made was  2  BIS Review 100/2006  imposed by the circumstances: lack of developed financial instruments and institutional financial structure; absence of the interest rate transmission mechanism, and high interdependence between the aggregate demand and money supply. In October 1995, NBRM made a shift towards monetary strategy of targeting the nominal exchange rate against the German Mark, and later against the Euro, with the Denar exchange rate stability being the intermediate monetary policy objective. Such a strategy, applied in a small and open economy such as ours, has proved to be very successful for maintaining the price stability until present day. All reforms in the monetary policy instruments since the independence have been directed towards introducing indirect, market-oriented instruments for enabling efficient monetary policy conduct. Therefore, in 1993 deposit and credit auctions were introduced, and at the end of 1994 CB bills auctions were introduced. The initial development and strengthening of the financial system of the Republic of Macedonia, especially of the government securities market, enabled us to include new instruments, following the example of the modern central banks. In April 2005, we promoted the overthe-counter market for government securities. In the same year, we launched the general repo agreement and we started with repo operations when concluding lombard credits. In March this year, together with the Ministry of Finance we introduced Treasury bills for monetary policy purposes. The transition of the monetary strategy and of the monetary instruments would not have been successful without adequate banking reforms.

In the same way that the economy will not return easily to its pre-crisis state, banking will also face important changes. New business opportunities should gain further attention when banking is unlikely to go back to business-as-usual. Your decisions can make a difference for banking development in Chile, to the security of cross-border payments, and to financial stability overall. VIII. Acknowledgements  •  Let me finish by thanking those who have made this workshop possible. From the CLS side, I thank everyone involved through its Chief Regulatory Officer Dino Kos, as well as the Head of LATAM Sales of the Americas Manuel Benites. •  From the Central Bank of Chile side, I thank the Director of our Financial Policy Division Solange Berstein, the Manager of Infrastructure and Financial Regulation Gabriel Aparici, and Economists Álvaro González, Carmen López, and Cristian Santa Cruz. Finally, to those in charge of logistics Paloma Navarro, María José Reyes, and Francisco Rossi. Thank all of you for zooming in and I look forward to your active and fruitful participation in the program prepared for today. Thank you. ***  Page 4 of 4
For instance, the mission observed that in Mpongwe, in the 2011 farming season, the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) paid out a total of K52 billion (Kr 52 million) to small-scale maize farmers while an additional K7 billion (Kr 7 million) was paid to commercial farmers. Coupled with this, total sales from maize alone exceeded about K80 billion (K80 million) if total sales to agents other than the FRA was included. It was further observed that the district produces more maize than the other nine districts on the Copperbelt put together. In addition, it was noted that the payments made to the farmers were growing steadily as evidenced by the increase from K19 billion (Kr19 million) in 2010 to K58 billion (Kr 58 million) in 2011 while members of the Farmers Union had accessed about K2.4 billion (Kr2.4 million) in loans from banks outside the district for the 2010/2011 farming season alone. Furthermore, the Mission reported that 2,700 residents of Mpongwe, comprising Government/Civil Service employees and registered farmers use the financial services located either in Kitwe, Ndola or Luanshya. It must be noted that this number did not include other persons in the productive sector such as private businesses. Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, the report further observed that a total monthly wage bill of about K2.8 billion (Kr2.8 million) was paid out to the residents of Mpongwe in 2011. These funds did not include grants and other sources of funding utilized by various Government organs and private individual and businesses.

Given that Swedish banks also have a very strong position in terms of savings in funds and life insurance it therefore is difficult to dismiss the Swedish banking sector’s lower branch and employee numbers by saying that the range of products is stingier than elsewhere. 2/4  In one area, though, the Swedish banks are stingiest in Europe, and that is with regard to how easy they make it for their customers to access their bank funds through cash withdrawals – undeniably a fairly significant aspect for a bank customer. Interestingly, Sweden has the lowest number of ATMs per capita of all the EU15 countries – and some 20 per cent lower than Finland, which is second from bottom (see Figure 3). It could quite simply be that Swedish bank customers prefer to use charge cards instead of cash, but that is not the case. On the contrary, Swedes make far more ATM withdrawals than the average European. That leads to the common sight in Sweden of long queues winding their way up to ATMs, which in fact is very unusual is most other countries (if we disregard planned economies). Swedish banks simply ration their customers’ possibilities to make ATM withdrawals. It is perhaps not that strange that Swedish banks are not overly eager to provide an expensive service that is difficult to charge for. That does not necessarily have to be the consequence of weak competition but it results nonetheless in a poorer product for the customer.
As we have said time and again, the short-term evolution of the exchange rate is a very important determinant of the behavior of inflation, and therefore short-term inflation will be affected if some of the external risks we have identified in our Reports come true, namely: a trajectory for the fed funds rate well above what the market expects and a sharper deceleration of the Chinese economy which would hit the copper price. The medium-term impact of these events is harder to predict, and will depend on both the persistence of exchange rate movements and their effects on output. The medium-term effects are, no doubt about it, more important for monetary policy, because our policy framework defines short-term inflation deviations as tolerable, as long as projected inflation two years out does not depart from the 3-percent target. This approach is what allows us to keep inflation expectations well anchored while applying a counter-cyclical policy stance in situations like the present one. Not denying the importance of this, I must say that the greatest challenge facing our economy is growth. In our baseline scenario, 2017 will be the fourth year in a row with annual growth around 2 percent, which is far from satisfactory. However, our scenario also assumes that towards the end of next year the country will be approaching potential growth, which we estimate between 3 and 3.5 percent.

The real-estate sector is adjusting after being very dynamic in 2015. New house sales in Santiago fell sharply in the first quarter of 2016, largely due to advanced purchases last year (figure 13). A substantial part of the sales of last year were accounted for by promised purchases of unfinished units, scheduled for delivery mainly this and next year. In this sense, one risk for real-estate companies stems from such promises not being honored if the economic outlook worsens. Finally, the vacancy rate in the office-space sector is around 10 percent, while rental prices showed a slight reduction at the end of 2015. In this context, the new house price index for Santiago as estimated by the Chilean Chamber of Construction rose 6.8 percent in real annual terms in the first quarter of 2016, slightly less than the 7.2 percent it showed in the third quarter of 2015. Meanwhile, in the third quarter of last year, the house price index for both new and used units calculated at the Bank rose by 9.4 and 9.7 percent in real terms nationwide and in the Santiago Metropolitan Region, respectively (figure 14). About households, aggregate borrowing – the debt to income ratio, RDI – continues to rise, in a context of weaker output and employment. The RDI reached 63 percent at the close of 2015, largely explained by an increased share of mortgage debt, which continues to expand at a real annual rate of nearly 10 percent.
The gains are shared between owners and workers. Real wage growth in Norway has been considerably higher than productivity growth. But the economic picture for Norway may be changing. We cannot assume that Norway’s terms of trade will continue to improve. Investment in the petroleum sector is levelling off. Output growth in the mainland economy has slackened. When activity in the petroleum sector eventually declines, there will also be a need for economic restructuring in Norway. The business sector will have to seek new markets, where competition may be intense. Restructuring may prove particularly demanding given Norway’s high cost level. Although restructuring will be a gradual process and may lie some years ahead, Norway may find that sustaining growth and keeping unemployment low in the coming years may become a challenge more on a par with that facing other economies today. The economic policy framework matters. Fiscal policy follows the fiscal rule, which aims to ensure a sustainable level of petroleum revenue spending over the long term. In the event of  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  major aggregate demand shocks, fiscal policy, in line with the fiscal rule, can be used to alleviate the situation in the short term, as evidenced during the recent financial crisis. But an imbalance arising from a cost level that is too high and weak competitiveness cannot in the long term be addressed by means of an expansionary fiscal policy. This approach could, on the contrary, amplify the problem by crowding out businesses.

In this regard, I wish to make special mention of the Stock Exchange Technical Committee (SETC) First Initiative, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management, the Team of local Lawyers headed by Mr Eke Halloway, as well as market practitioners in neighbouring countries who have been unrelenting in sharing their experiences and expertise with us. Naming people in these situations can be invidious, but let me crave your indulgence to mention Mr Maroof Matin, the Resident Consultant provided by First Initiative, Mr Jacob Kanu of First Discount House, Mr Melvin Tucker, former Deputy Governor and other members of the Stock Exchange Technical Committee. To all of these, I say thank you very much and please let us continue to work together for a more prosperous Sierra Leone. Thank you for your attention. 2  BIS Review 107/2007
In fact, the spill-over effects transmitted from one region of the world to another via interest rates, exchange rates and equity prices, for instance, can be mitigated through closer regional integration. By reducing the relative degree of economic and financial openness of the regions concerned, such integration can be an effective instrument to shield them from external shocks, thereby obviating the need for trade or capital restrictions. The European experience shows that regional integration can be beneficial in this respect. The euro area weathered well the economic slowdown and financial market uncertainties arising from the series of balance of payments crises seen between 1997 and 1999. Likewise, provided that the current economic slowdown in the United States does not develop into a hard landing, the euro area is expected to record in 2001 above-potential growth for the second year in a row. To be sure, sheltering domestic economies from external shocks was not the primary consideration of European integration when it was initiated almost 50 years ago. Nor were the creation of the euro and the setting-up of the European Central Bank (ECB) objectives at that time. These are, in fact, only the latest developments in a long process of regional integration that started and is continuing with a strong political commitment.

At the same time, the European experience could serve as a reference point for assessing the policy requirements and operational aspects of a process of regional integration, possibly including exchange rate and monetary policy co-operation. Finally, the European experience shows that a process of regional integration can and should be without prejudice to the broader process of globalisation or to multilateral co-operation within the current institutional framework of the international monetary and financial system. 2  BIS Review 1/2001
The prolonged period of global low interest rate environment leads to another potential concern: search-for-yield that leads to underpricing of risks. It should be noted that search-for-yield is not uncommon and is all well and good if investors are wellinformed and manage their risks accordingly. However, we cannot deny that some investors are underpricing the associated risks. Debt accumulation among households;  3/5  large expansion of foreign investment funds with high concentration in some emerging economies; saving cooperatives’ growing asset base; maturity mismatch of corporate borrowers; and rapid growth of unrated bonds are some examples of the issues the Bank of Thailand has been monitoring over the years. More recently, we also notice an upward trend in mortgage loans to homebuyers who search for rental yield, driven partly by high LTV ratio for mortgage loans offered by fierce competition in the financial sector. Furthermore, mortgage NPLs, especially among second and third home buyers, have continued to rise. On the regulatory side, the Bank of Thailand continues to monitor warning signs of financial stability risks and address them accordingly. For example, last year, we tightened credit card regulations as well as uncollateralized personal loan limits to mitigate household debt problems. It is also our view that collaborations between various regulatory bodies and market participants are increasingly important for effective risk monitoring and assessment, together with appropriate measures to manage risks that might arise in the future.

In this light, most MPC members in the last meeting viewed that current growth momentum still warranted monitoring and monetary policy should continue to be accommodative for some time. However, we are mindful that ultra accommodative monetary policy stance could lead to unintended consequences. The prolonged period of very low interest rates has a side effect that it could undermine longterm financial stability. Therefore, we have been monitoring developments of search-foryield and underpricing of risk behaviors in various sectors. Let me emphasize once again that MPC’s decisions are data dependent. Economic and financial developments, their trends, and risk factors have been and will continue to be weighted carefully by the MPC. I am certain we will be able to navigate the Thai economy towards sustained growth in this increasingly volatile global landscape. Thank you very much for your attention. 5/5
Such collaboration will also lead to greater innovation and increased productivity that will contribute to the overall effectiveness and performance of the mobile payment system. In delivering products that the market demands, substantial investments would be required of participants in the mobile eco-system: the mobile operators, banking institutions, mobile device manufacturers, and payment service providers. Equally important therefore, is the need for all the stakeholders to ensure that investments are channeled judiciously into the areas of greatest impact. Strengthened collaboration in the key areas will minimise duplication and achieve greater resource efficiency. In this regard, there is a need to fully understand customer payment preferences. Product offerings need to meet the expectations of increasingly discerning and sophisticated consumers of payment services. Collaboration is also required in the area of education and outreach programmes to increase consumer awareness and public confidence in mobile payments. Thirdly, regulators and market players must also share a common vision on the future mobile payment landscape in order to align strategies and interests to achieve holistic mobile payment solutions that will widen access to the retail payment system and thus achieve a critical mass of consumers. The network externalities and the social benefits of the wide adoption of the mobile banking and payment system provides justification for Governmental intervention. The Bank together with Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission will work towards providing the appropriate environment for economic development and to catalyse the transformation of the mobile initiatives.

An area in which the quantum leap forward can be made, particularly by emerging economies, that will substantially increase the level of efficiency and thus reduce costs, is through the adoption of a more expedient and efficient means of payment. This will be the subject of my remarks today. While the Central Bank supplies currency notes and coins, we are also concerned with payments in its broader context. An important function and responsibility of the Central Bank is to promote the development of safe and efficient payment systems. Any inability to make payments in an economy would have a far reaching and widespread impact on society. Our task is therefore to ensure that the public and businesses can make payments in a safe and efficient manner. The task also involves taking advantage of the technology and innovation wave and to move towards more efficient payment modes. The economic benefits from this can be immense. Studies have shown that shifting from paper based to a more electronic based payment systems can generate an annual savings up to 1% of GDP. Further research has also shown that it becomes a catalyst that promotes increased consumption spending. Moreover, it can also enhance financial inclusion by extending financial services to the unbanked communities. In so doing, such communities would be brought into the formal financial system and into the economic mainstream.