samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The good news is that with the rise of big data and new technologies, authorities have the capacity to achieve what was not possible before to keep a pulse on developments affecting the financial system. Second, authorities must continue to develop and deepen their understanding of risk transmission. Approaches to quantify the immediate, direct impact on institutional resilience are now reasonably well developed. However, further work remains in mapping out the second and higher order effects on the broader financial system and economy. Authorities need to continue pushing the envelope to advance the development of more holistic approaches to systemic risk assessments. This needs to be able to capture propagation channels and feedback loops not just among entities within the financial system, but also across the domestic and global economy. An understanding of structural changes driving such interlinkages will become increasingly critical. Third, authorities must have a broad policy toolkit for responding to financial stability risks. In recent years, central banks and other authorities responsible for financial stability have had their mandates clarified and powers strengthened for this purpose. This is however by no means assured in many other countries where financial stability authorities continue to face significant limitations in their ability to act, in particular, during a crisis. In Malaysia, the enactment of new central bank legislation in 2009 accorded Bank Negara Malaysia with strengthened surveillance powers, along with broad powers to implement measures to avert risks to financial stability.

Jarle Bergo: The Norwegian economy - possibilities and challenges Address by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at a seminar hosted by Agder Research Foundation, Arendal, 12 May 2005. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 20 April, Inflation Report 1/05 and on previous speeches. The  Charts in pdf-format can also be found on the website of the Norges Bank. *  *  *  The Norwegian economy is growing at a solid pace and there are prospects that growth will remain high. The recession was mild after the previous expansion culminated in 2002. The period of relatively high cost inflation in Norway came to an end without production being impacted to the same extent as during the recessions in the early 1980s and around 1990. One of the main reasons for this is probably that low inflation in the 1990s and current monetary policy have anchored expectations of low and stable inflation among economic agents. Together with private consumption and fixed investment in the petroleum sector, traditional exports were an important factor underlying growth in the early stages of the recovery that started in the first half of 2003. Prices for many of our main export goods have risen as a result of strong growth in new markets.
Economic activity  1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  According to Eurostat's preliminary flash estimate, the euro area economy grew by 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022. While above the December Eurosystem staff projections, this outcome means that economic activity has slowed markedly since mid2022 and we expect it to stay weak in the near term. Subdued global activity and high geopolitical uncertainty, especially owing to Russia's unjustified war against Ukraine and its people, continue to act as headwinds to euro area growth. Together with high inflation and tighter financing conditions, these headwinds dampen spending and production, especially in the manufacturing sector. However, supply bottlenecks are gradually easing, the supply of gas has become more secure, firms are still working off large order backlogs and confidence is improving. Moreover, output in the services sector has been holding up, supported by continuing reopening effects and stronger demand for leisure activities. Rising wages and the recent decline in energy price inflation are also set to ease the loss of purchasing power that many people have experienced owing to high inflation. This, in turn, will support consumption. Overall, the economy has proved more resilient than expected and should recover over the coming quarters. The unemployment rate remained at its historical low of 6.6 per cent in December 2022. However, the rate at which jobs are being created may slow and unemployment could rise over the coming quarters.

It was for the first time when such a complete vision of the Danube was unveiled. All these facts constitute reasons that lead the European Commission to recognize the importance of Danube as being “the single most important non-oceanic body of water in Europe” and “a future central axis for the European Union”. But there still remains a major issue regarding this subject –the Danube basin is still not used to its full potential. Its remarkable business prospective is yet to be taken advantage of in terms of agriculture,  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  energy sources, wastewater disposal, industrial or even recreational purposes. This massive potential alone is not enough to implement a business plan; it certainly needs vision and funding. And financing is exactly the main issue upon which the today conference focuses. For instance, one could take inspiration in the Rhine basin management project which turned the Rhine into Europe’s most densely navigated shipping route. It connects world’s largest seaport, Rotterdam, with world’s largest inland port, Duisburg, although the Rhine’s length is less than a half of Danube’s. And while large sections of the Upper Danube in Germany and Austria have been regulated, the areas of the lower and middle Danube were not. I strongly believe that middle and lower Danube and the Danube Delta offer a great business potential for investment projects.
This task complements those performed by the Swiss Federal Banking Commission (SFBC), which oversees the individual banks (microprudential oversight). The Financial Stability Report takes account of this division of tasks. The National Bank limits its evaluation of the Swiss banking sector’s stability by focusing on trends observable at the levels of the banking system, the financial markets and the macroeconomic environment. It only focuses on individual banks when this is necessary in order to make an overall assessment. The main purpose of the Financial Stability Report is to allow the National Bank to highlight any stresses or imbalances that could pose an immediate or longer-term threat to system stability. We evaluate the stability of the banking sector in two steps. First we analyse the development of the risk factors in the macroeconomic environment and on the financial markets. Then we evaluate the banking system’s robustness in the face of these risk factors. To do this, we consider profitability, the risks entered into and the capital adequacy of the banking sector. To complete our analysis, we use newly developed models that quantify both the stress to which the banking sector is subjected and its correlation with the macroeconomic environment. The main characteristics and conclusions drawn from these models are published for the first time today. The models will be presented in detail in a series of SNB publications. The analysis presented in the Financial Stability Report indicates that the banking sector is stable.

In 2003 it was able to raise its profits substantially in spite of a mixed macroeconomic and financial environment. Thanks to these profits, banks were able to bolster their capital significantly, thus enhancing their capacity to absorb shocks. The resulting capital ratios in the banking sector are high both in historical terms and by international standards. This impression of pronounced robustness in the Swiss banking sector is corroborated by the relatively low level (in historical terms) of the stress indicator. This is a new indicator calculated as a synthesis of different stress symptoms. The indicator considers in particular the capital ratios, profits, share prices and risk premiums on bonds in the Swiss banking sector. As far as the outlook is concerned, we believe that the macroeconomic environment and the financial markets do not present any significant threat to the stability of the Swiss banking system. The forecasts for 2004 point to a rebound in economic growth in Switzerland and the European Union along with a continuing upswing in the United States. Moreover, the rise in prices on the Swiss real estate market has remained moderate by both historical and international standards. It is thus unlikely that this market will see any abrupt downward adjustment - traditionally a major stress factor for the banking sector. And finally, the available indicators suggest that the major global banking sectors are  BIS Review 39/2004  1  also relatively robust. At present, therefore, the risk of contagion - i.e. of a crisis having repercussions on Switzerland - is remote.
While the long-term objective should be to create conditions for achieving a more balanced and diverse financial system, the shorter times objectives should focus one having a stable financial system that provides adequate financial services to its customers, both savers and borrowers, thus maintaining its fair share of contribution to the economic developments of a particular country. The banking sector in Albania has felt the impact of the international financial crisis, as the weaker credit standards before the crisis and the weaker economic growth afterwards, have been translated into lower asset quality and difficulties to consistently maintain positive financial results. In front of higher credit risk, credit terms have been tightened and credit growth has been sluggish. In September 2013, credit growth turned negative driven by credit in foreign currency and to businesses. However, the banking sector remains well capitalized and liquid. Banks have been able to raise new capital and financial support from their mother banks. Especially, Greek banks operating in Albania have enjoyed strong support from their mother banks so far, and we expect this to continue in the future too, if needed. Overall, in September 2013 the risk  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  weighted capital of the banking sector stood at 17.8%, while the ratio of liquid assets to short term liabilities was 36.5%. The sector has shown strong preference for investments in Albanian government debt securities and placements abroad. Bank of Albania has been taking a number of measures to support credit growth and address the loan quality problems.

Ardian Fullani: The role of banks – bridges to development Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the 7th Hellenic – Albanian Business Forum “The role of banks – bridges to development”, Tirana, 13 November 2013. *  *  *  Good morning ladies and gentlemen! For me it’s a pleasure to participate in this economic forum that brings together representatives of Greek and Albanian entrepreneurs, and also of banks operating in our countries. I am particularly pleased to have with us today the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Mr. Provopoulos, whose participation in this forum shows the attention that him personally, and the Bank of Greece, is paying to support the business sector in general, and more specifically, the economic relationship between Greece and Albania. This approach is the right one. The private business sector is the main contributor in the GDP of the respective countries. The business sector is undergoing some severe difficulties in Greece currently, related with the need to deleverage and restructure in order to improve productivity and become competitive. These are fierce challenges that are associated with huge economic and social costs. I do believe though that these sacrifices of Greek people will pay off in the future, by giving way to a more vibrant and stronger economy, a more competitive business sector. In Albania, the business sector faces challenges too. Albanian businesses must restructure to become more competitive.
According to the forecast, business investment as a share of GDP will be below the historical average throughout the forecast horizon, but the most recent developments, which I mentioned a moment ago, and the process of channelling offshore krónur towards investment could change that somewhat. The outlook for output growth and employment would improve even more, however, if business investment proved stronger. The global economic outlook was very bleak towards the end of 2011, particularly in the euro area. The picture has changed, however, in the first months of 2012. International measures of risk aversion have declined more or less steadily since the winter began. Risk premia on debt-ridden euro area countries have fallen since the European Central Bank offered the banks three-year loans at low interest rates, action has been taken to address the debt problems facing individual countries, and moves have been made to improve the ground rules for the future. This does not mean that the flaws in the design of the eurozone have now been permanently fixed. Nonetheless, there are indications that the contraction in the euro area is easing, and other parts of the world are doing better than expected. In essence, the global economy is continuing to grow, and growth could begin anew in the euro area in the second half of this year. But the outlook is uncertain, and the global economic situation is fragile.

In the long run, however, inflation cannot be explained solely as a function of nominal exchange rate movements, as it reflects, on the one hand, rises in wages and prices in excess of those in other countries and, on the other, changes in the real exchange rate, which stem from developments in underlying economic conditions such as terms of trade. Inflation that remains above target levels for a protracted period can only be explained by weaknesses in economic structure and policy, particularly monetary policy. In the short run, however, under- or overshooting of the nominal exchange rate can cause swings in the inflation rate, particularly if inflation expectations are poorly anchored to the target and exchange rate movements are significant. In trade-weighted terms, the króna has fallen by 5.8% year-to-date and just over 7½% since November, when it last peaked. The depreciation seems to stem from several causes. It appears that net foreign currency inflows from trade in goods and services have been at a low ebb in recent months. While seasonal factors are at play here, it could also be that foreign currency subject to repatriation requirements is not being returned to Iceland in full. This situation is being investigated by the Bank’s Capital Controls Surveillance Unit. In addition, firms and municipalities have been paying down foreign debt. In many instances, they are forced to do so, as they have no access to refinancing from abroad and would otherwise default on these loans.
In these matters, however, most decisions have to be made at the national level. But the connection with conditions for monetary policy is evident: the better the economy can be made to work, the higher the growth that can be achieved without this generating increased inflation. Monetary union is likely to accelerate the process towards increased integration in Europe. In this way it will also contribute to new demands for structural adjustment. One of monetary union’s primary purposes is, in fact, to stimulate competition and structural changes, primarily to the benefit of consumers in the EU area. At the same time, such a development will probably entail a greater degree of joint action and harmonisation in the Union. 3. Interaction As I have outlined, monetary union involves a central direction of monetary policy and a broadly national direction of budget policy, though discretion in budget policy is demarcated by the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability Pact, for instance, and is being further curtailed by the gradual extension of international integration. At the same time, structural policy is to varying degrees a common EU concern. This raises the question of how a balanced policy can be constructed in such an environment. Bodies for decision-making and cooperation One approach to this question involves describing the EU institutions that have been set up for economic policy decision-making and cooperation. •  Ecofin, as the decision-making body for the ministers of finance and economy, is the principal forum in the field of economic policy.

How are the dialogue and decisions likely to develop in the next few years? These are some of the questions that I shall be considering today. 1. Convergence A natural starting-point for a discussion of the current economic situation in Europe is the convergence reports that the Commission and the European Monetary Institute (EMI) presented at the end of March. •  The price trend for the EU area in recent years is impressive. The disparities in the rate of price increases have diminished and in January this year inflation was below 2 per cent in all the Member States except Greece. This development is fundamentally a consequence of the monetary policy focus on price stability, backed up by economic policy in general. Other factors have been increased international competition and low oil prices. •  The picture of government finances in the EU countries has also brightened. Progress has been made in the process of financial consolidation. However, a number of countries are only just below or at 3 per cent and have qualified thanks to measures of a temporary nature. •  A high degree of exchange rate stability now prevails in most EU countries and tensions in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) have been moderate. •  The notable convergence of long-term interest rates is another indication of the stable situation and EMU expectations. BIS Review 50/1998  -2-  All in all, the reports from the Commission and the EMI show that convergence in the Maastricht sense has come a long way.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  At irregular intervals during the past 200 years, Norges Bank has faced defining moments – crossroads – that have defined the bank as an institution. At such defining moments, the central bank becomes what it is, both in its own awareness and in that of the general public. These are situations where it sometimes became bigger than itself or took on too much responsibility, or inversely became smaller than itself and did not fulfil its role. As is so often the case, it is only in retrospect that we can fully identify the defining moments and assess the wisdom of the choices made. Norges Bank faced its first defining moment early on. When it was first established, the Bank was unknown to the public at large. The new paper money, speciedaler notes, was linked by law to a specific amount of silver.29 Despite the fact that the silver tax had secured Norges Bank a considerable silver reserve, the authorities were afraid to permit free silver redemption. The fear was that the silver fund would be emptied quickly. The notes in circulation with the promise of silver redemption far exceeded the silver value of the silver forks and silver plates that had been collected. Confidence in the new notes waned, and in 1822 the Storting adopted a long-term strategy whereby the redemption rate in silver for the speciedaler would gradually be increased. The aim – the right to full silver redemption, i.e.

Moreover, these transfers have taken place, not only through OTC contracts, but also through securitised debt instruments, of various credit quality. In my view, this opacity is not conducive to long-term confidence in the strength of the industry. And, it certainly doesn’t contribute to overall systemic robustness. So this is the second area where gaining better understanding of the potential vulnerabilities before we face adverse outcomes could be of real value. Supervision and regulation Obviously, it’s pretty easy to make lists of risks and potential vulnerabilities. Central bankers are meant to be especially good at it! But I’ve already referred to the significant benefits of risk transfer. They include wider distribution of risk, and potentially at lower cost to buyers of protection from those risks. That’s got to be of real value. The question is: can these gains be achieved efficiently whilst at the same time mitigating the risks? My suggestion here relates to the environment in which the industries operate: the general infrastructure I talked about earlier. If we want to get the full benefits of risk transfer, but with the vulnerabilities contained at acceptable levels then it’s worth reflecting on the value of co-ordinating some major elements of that environment: supervision, regulation and accounting, as they relate to the worlds of banking and insurance. I can’t help feeling that a genuine effort and real engagement in this area will help develop a better understanding of where risk really resides. In turn, that would mean greater predictability, enhanced confidence and better business opportunities.