samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The problem lies with its quality and productivity, which is insufficient to  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  support growth: a large amount of construction, not enough machinery and equipment nor research and development. Boosting productive investment is not something that can be decided from above: it depends on the decisions of thousands of entrepreneurs. But all are above all sensitive to three levers. First, growth prospects, since order books, i.e. expected demand or GDP, are the main drivers of investment. To raise medium-term growth in France, structural reforms are essential. Today we know France’s handicaps: a highly indebted public sector, declining competitiveness, unwieldy procedures. We also know the solutions: they have worked in other European countries, Sweden in the 1990s, Germany in the 2000s, Spain in the 2010s. The second lever is confidence. Uncertainty is the enemy of investment. To reduce uncertainty, rules should be simplified, stabilised and made more visible. Finally, the third lever is profitability. This factor has a more direct effect for many SMEs which are sensitive to the volume of their selffinancing. II. However, while firms’ investment decisions are mainly influenced by economic levers, financial levers also have an important role to play. a) Today, companies need more appropriate financing: our challenge concerns equity financing more than debt financing. In order to steer investments increasingly towards innovation, making them de facto more and more risky, financing has to evolve. Innovative investments call for new modes of financing.

Ravi Menon: Monetary Authority of Singapore at forty Welcome address by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at MAS 40th Anniversary Dinner, Singapore, 28 November 2011. *  *  *  Prime Minister, Lee Hsien Loong Deputy Prime Minister and Chairman MAS, Tharman Shanmugaratnam Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, Staff and management of MAS are delighted to welcome you to our 40th anniversary celebrations. 1. one. An anniversary is a good time to thank all those who made the journey a successful  First, we thank the past leaders and staff of MAS 2. Economic and financial stability that Singapore has enjoyed over last 40 years is result of tireless efforts of generations of MAS officers. 3. The pioneers, led by our first Chairman, Mr Hon Sui Sen, and first Managing Director, Michael Wong Pak Shong, laid the foundations for an integrated central bank and financial regulator while navigating a turbulent global environment – the collapse of Bretton Woods, global recession, and double-digit inflation. 4. With Dr Goh Keng Swee as Chairman at the start of the 1980s and Mr Lim Kim San and Mr Yong Pung How as Managing Directors, MAS adopted the exchange rate as the principal tool of monetary policy, at a time when the conventional tools were monetary aggregates and interest rates. 5.
Increased awareness of the risks and early reaction to problems is likely to lead to a smoother adjustment to new conditions or to the correction of mistakes, making decisions less abrupt and time-lags perhaps shorter. This early reaction will be supported by the supervisory second pillar and again by the transparency of the third, which will also reduce the temptation of supervisory forbearance. Let me add a few words on transparency. History has also taught us that some of the worst financial crises were ultimately unleashed by sudden bank crises, during which an upsurge of collective panic led individuals to withdraw their funding to banks. A vast amount of analysis and research on these issues has underlined the role of information asymmetries in financial intermediation. Indeed, it is no overstatement to say that the presence of asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers in financial markets can explain much of their inherent instability. Higher transparency in the information provided by banks on their balance-sheet and risk position, along the lines of that set out in Pillar 3, must undoubtedly alleviate such asymmetries, thus reducing the likelihood of an episode of profound disintermediation and, by fostering the public’s confidence in the banking system, easing the recovery of the financial pulse in the event of a downturn.

My understanding of the present debates leads me to the following four pragmatic suggestions that I hope can stimulate your discussions: 1. Remain very clear about your objectives – uncertain times are not the right ones to create additional doubts about, say, your inflation target – and about your capacity and determination to use your tools in a predicable sequence. 2. But, whilst being consistent with your guidance, be very flexible in the precise calendar and calibration of your implementation. In short, be as predictable as possible, but never be precommitted. 3. Act to prevent the worst outcomes occurring but without supplying complete insurance, which would create moral hazard. 4. Never base policy on only one expected path for the economy. In conclusion, we cannot seek to control, or avoid, uncertainty; instead we must implement strategies that are the most robust to it. The French philosopher Edgar Morin put it nicely: “La connaissance progresse en intégrant l’incertitude, non en l’exorcisant” – “knowledge advances by integrating uncertainty, not by exorcising it”. With that in mind, let me wish you all a very productive symposium with lively and enlightening exchanges of views. Christine, the floor is yours. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
The goal is to enable banks to retain market access to capital and funding even when large losses occur or the banks are subject to other adverse shocks. The ability to retain access should enable banks to manage through their problems, avoiding the types of liquidity runs that led to the forced unwinding of positions and that pushed what might have been solvent institutions over the edge into insolvency. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  In addition to the Basel III standards for capital and liquidity, an international effort is underway to further reduce the probability of failure for systemically important financial institutions or SIFIs. The basic logic behind this effort is that the failure of a larger, more complex firm can have disproportionately large negative systemic consequences. As a result, such firms should be forced to hold additional capital in order to reduce their probability of failure below that of smaller firms. An additional capital requirement on such SIFIs would also help to level the playing field between larger and smaller firms by offsetting the funding advantage that accrues to the largest firms that stems from the perception that they are “too big to fail.” Although there are potentially other options, I believe that a SIFI surcharge could best be satisfied by requiring SIFIs to hold additional common equity above and beyond the Basel 7 percent Tier I common standard.

Norman T L Chan: The risk of asset-price bubbles Speech by Mr Norman TL Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Hong Kong Economic Summit, Hong Kong, 14 December 2009. *  *  *  Introduction 1. I am very honoured to have this opportunity to speak to you today at the Hong Kong Economic Summit. Potential risks of an asset bubble 2. Recently, many people in Hong Kong have become concerned about the emergence of an asset-price bubble. As we all know, interest rates are now very low due to the extremely loose monetary policies around the world. Attracted by a promising outlook for economic recovery, large amounts of funds have flowed into Asia, including Hong Kong. From October last year up to now, more than $ billion have flowed into the Hong Kong dollar. This will certainly exert an upward pressure on local asset markets. I am sure you are all aware that the Hong Kong asset markets have become very active again. In particular, the prices of residential properties rose for 10 consecutive months from the beginning of this year, and prices and turnover have returned to levels we saw before the financial crisis. Many people are asking whether there is already a bubble. 3. Bull markets normally occur in times of rapid economic growth, abundant liquidity and strong investment sentiment. However, as to how far a bull market can develop before it becomes a bubble, there is no easy answer.
In these horrific examples, we often witnessed that greed or short term profits were the main factor causing the management of the financial firms to lose their perspective and common sense. However, in the case of Wells Fargo, which survived unscathed amongst the US banks during the GFC, it revealed another shocking fact. Even though there could not have been any meaningful financial gains by the firm, the incentive system of the bank (i.e. by paying a cash reward for every new account opened) had prompted some of its employees to commit misdeeds that breached the trust of the customers and seriously harmed the reputation of the bank. The case is a powerful testimony that corporate culture, however good, must be aligned and reinforced by the appropriate incentive system across the entire firm at all levels. This is why the HKMA issued a circular earlier this year requiring the boards of locally incorporated banks to form a board level committee focusing on corporate culture as well as the compensation system. Many banks have told us that they have already started reviewing and enhancing their governance arrangements and policies and procedures in relation to corporate culture to drive the desired behavioural changes on the ground. I truly believe that only when good corporate culture and the incentive system aligns with each other will there be sustainable impact that helps reduce misconduct risks, a crucial element in gaining the trust of customers in the long run. 13.

John C Williams: Attaining and maintaining price stability Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City, 19 April 2023. ***  As prepared for delivery Thank you for that kind introduction. Good evening, everyone. It's great to be here with the Money Marketeers. One of the big issues facing the economy is inflation. Inflation is far too high, and high inflation is hardest on those who can least afford essentials like food, shelter, and transportation. So today, I'm going to talk about the actions the Federal Reserve is taking to restore price stability. I'll also give my views on the economic outlook. But before I go any further, I need to give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System. The Dual Mandate For a group like the Money Marketeers, the economic and financial events of the past few months-and even years-have provided a lot to talk about. In fact, the high inflation we see today stems from imbalances between demand and supply that started with the pandemic. A more recent issue has been the stresses that emerged last month in parts of the banking system. Conditions in the banking sector have stabilized, and the banking system is sound and resilient.
Measured as a share of the labour force, seasonally adjusted unemployment is now 4.4 per cent, including persons on labour market programmes. The number of unemployed persons not on labour market programmes has fallen by 8 per cent since October 2003 to about 15 500. The largest reduction has been in manufacturing and the building and construction industry. 4  BIS Review 67/2004  According to the Directorate of Labour, a sharp decrease in the number of lay-offs has contributed to lower unemployment in manufacturing. Since July, oil prices have varied between USD 34 and 52, the highest nominal levels recorded. Measured in real prices, oil prices are nonetheless clearly lower than the levels recorded in the beginning of the 1980s. In contrast to earlier periods of sharply rising oil prices, the main reason behind the current rise in oil prices is a surge in demand and limited excess production capacity. Growth in oil demand has been particularly strong in regions where production is relatively energy-intensive, such as China and other non-OECD countries. China alone accounts for about 1/3 of global growth in oil demand this year. Moreover, there has been a marked reduction in excess production capacity in OPEC countries. Small production problems have therefore affected prices more than would otherwise have been the case. In the short term, oil prices constitute the greatest risk to the outlook for the global economy. High oil prices may contribute to a sharper-than-expected slowdown in global economic growth.

There were reports of defaults on mortgage loans, but it was generally believed that the loans at risk were confined to a small segment of the market. The first warning of more severe problems came in winter last year. In the course of summer, it became clear that the losses had spread, and in the first instance to state-owned German banks. Other banks, funds and financial establishments in Europe, Asia and the US also felt the turbulence and gradually losses emerged where we perhaps least expected them. A European colleague compared the financial turbulence to a film production: It was shot in the US, premiered in Germany and is now playing all over the world. As you know, it also came to small-town cinemas in Norway last autumn. In addition to German banks, a small Danish bank and a fairly large British mortgage bank were faced with serious problems. At St James’ Park in Newcastle, advertisements for the crisis-hit British bank Northern Rock shine towards us. We are indeed witnessing crises at banks in neighbouring countries. 1  Yngvar Ustvedt (1994) “Henrik Wergeland – En Biografi”, Gyldendal Norsk Forlag A/S. 2  Source: www.dokpro.uio.no. Text from “Henrik Wergeland – Samlede skrifter”, ed. Herman Jæger, Didrik Arup Seip, Halvdan Koht and Einar Høigård, published by Steenske Publishers, 1918-1940. Poem translated by Anne Born, published in "The Army of Truth", The University of Wisconsin Press. BIS Review 18/2008  1  The turmoil spread to money and credit markets in August.
At a deeper level there are also some signs of a rotation away from goods demand and back towards services. Non-auto durables spending in the US has fallen back a little in the second half of this year. And although trends in the UK are less important in this respect (our share of global goods demand is small), you 6  See “Asian countries are at last abandoning zero-covid strategies”, The Economist Oct 9th 2021 edition. 9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  9  can see from Chart 11 that retail spending here has also declined since the spring. I mentioned a moment ago that some of the shifts in spending caused by the pandemic had persisted, even as pandemic itself receded. You can also see in Chart 11 that spending on transport is still a long way short of pre-pandemic levels, not least because many of us are still working from home (to some extent, at least). But total spending on services has nonetheless outgrown that on goods in the second half of this year. Finally, and more generally, we know that, in many instances, tradable goods prices exhibit a significant degree of mean reversion. More often than not, big  Chart 12. Shipping costs have fallen in recent months and forward contracts suggest further material declines Jan 2017 = 100 400  rises are followed not just by slower growth but  Latest  outright declines.

new autos  20  Other G7  16  Total G7 (%)  Level, end 2019 = 100 140 130  New autos  120  12  110  8  Dec 19  Jun 20  Dec 20  100  4  90  0  80  -4  70  -8  60  -12 Jun 21  Contributions to percentage change on 2019 Q4. Sources: OECD Quarterly National Accounts, Refinitiv Eikon from LSEG and Bank calculations. Apr 19  Oct 19  Apr 20  Oct 20  Apr 21  50 Oct 21  Sources: Refinitiv Eikon from LSEG, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bank calculations. In addition, and even if the pandemic itself has receded, some of the shifts in spending it produced have proved more enduring. Working from home is still much more prevalent than before the crisis, reducing spending on travel and some other local services as well. For the same reason some of the geographical shifts – away from city centres and towards the suburbs and countryside – have also lasted longer. Third, “zero-covid” policies in some Asian countries have meant that, even though vaccination rates have risen significantly, restrictions continue to be imposed in response to local outbreaks of the virus5. Coupled with the continuing strength in demand, these have contributed to significant congestion on shipping routes, 5  There were two major port closures in the summer in China, after some workers tested positive.
SNB Bills allow us to be more flexible in steering liquidity. Consequently, we are now in a position to offer more long-term transactions, which help calm the money markets and facilitate the steering of the threemonth Libor. The financial market crisis has also shown us that the liquidity-shortage financing facility can only contribute to calming the situation in the money markets if it is actually used when needed. However, even during the crisis, it was rarely called upon. The reason for this being that the direct costs of drawing on it were relatively high, as were the indirect costs ensuing from the stigma associated with using the facility. The SNB has thus decided to lower the direct and indirect costs of using the facility. To start with, we will reduce the special-rate interest premium from 200 basis points to 50 basis points. This will become effective from 1 January 2009. The SNB will also make some changes to its reporting methods. In order to protect the borrower’s reputation, claims from the liquidity-shortage financing facility will, in future, no longer be reported separately. These two measures should encourage banks to utilise the facility’s limits more frequently and therefore increase their liquidity provisioning. We have also found that, in periods of turbulence, some of the data reported in our weekly publication Important monetary policy data are misinterpreted, which can have a destabilising effect. To remedy this, we have decided to discontinue the real-time announcement of individual transactions and facilities.

Therefore, in addition to the other elements I mentioned earlier, such as risk controls and data quality, a clear and sound risk culture is also needed. This was an important element in the recent financial turmoil, particularly the episode triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, although many of the underlying factors in that case have yet to be properly analysed. Nevertheless, some aspects can be highlighted: shortcomings in banks’ risk management, ineffective governance and an inappropriate business model, including in terms of interest rate risk, asset/liability management profile, liquidity risk and NBFI2 exposures.3 Others have also pointed to the gaps in regulatory and supervisory frameworks and the long period of low interest rates and ample liquidity. While these latter factors are all true, this episode has shown that even today some banks still fail to comply with basic risk management and governance practices. But what are the fundamentals of risk management and oversight by banks? Beyond the Basel Committee’s 2015 corporate governance principles for banks,4 there is no single approach to good corporate governance. The clear objective is to achieve sound risk management and decision-making. Banks’ board of directors, senior management and risk management function should be able to ask the right questions in a timely manner and take credible decisions to strengthen operational and critical resilience. This seems to be the real challenge, even today.
We succeeded in avoiding deflation at the peak of the crisis. You can be sure that the needle in our compass will always point towards price stability. FOCUS: How quickly have you taken action during the crisis? Trichet: As I have said, alertness is of the essence. On 9 August 2007, for instance, ...  BIS Review 7/2010  1  FOCUS: ... just before the US real estate bubble burst ... Trichet: ... we were the first to diagnose that a major crisis was unfolding and supply additional liquidity to the money market. We did so because we had realised that something exceedingly dangerous was developing. FOCUS: Could the ECB really raise interest rates on its own – i.e. without the US Federal Reserve doing so as well? If the ECB were to take such action, the euro’s exchange rate vis-à-vis the dollar would be sure to shoot upwards, causing European exports to collapse. And that is something nobody in Europe would want ... Trichet: I am convinced that the US authorities – both the central bank and the Treasury – consider that a strong dollar vis-à-vis the other major floating currencies is in the interests of the United States. Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner have made this very clear. FOCUS: Do you believe what those responsible in the United States are saying? The US economy is currently benefiting immensely from the cheap dollar. Trichet: I believe in the sincerity of the people I have just mentioned.

You have in this city and this region a combination of excellent cultural opportunities – both in music and in the visual arts – and a cosmopolitan milieu which is very cultivated. FOCUS: You come from Paris. Is Frankfurt not too provincial? Trichet: You will not be surprised if I tell you that Paris is unique! FOCUS: And Frankfurt? Trichet: When I arrived, I found I had underestimated three things. First, the range of cultural opportunities in the area. There are five opera houses within just 45 minutes of my flat: in Wiesbaden, Mainz, Darmstadt and Frankfurt. There are very few places in the world that can compete in this respect – perhaps New York, London and Paris. Second, the quality of what’s on offer is very high indeed. I was very impressed, for example, by the sculptures in the Messerschmidt exhibition at the Liebieghaus or the Picasso theatre sets exhibited at the Schirn. I hope that I will find time over the next few weeks to see the much-praised Botticelli exhibition at the Städel. Third, as I have said, people here are impressively cultivated, as I saw for myself when the ECB launched its own Cultural Days. FOCUS: What are the highlights of your work as a central bank president so far? Trichet: When Economic and Monetary Union began, many were sceptical about whether it would be successful or even possible.