samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In this regard, I welcome the recent compromise as part of the trialogue process on the transposition of Basel III into EU law and I hope it will now be formally adopted as quickly as possible. Moreover, we await the next US package with great interest. An astute observer might object: why did Credit Suisse fail if it met the Basel requirements? The answer is simple: while good regulation is necessary, it is never sufficient. A Highway Code - regulations -, even the best one in the world, will only be effectively enforced if the traffic police - supervisors - are efficient. This proactive supervision is one of the great successes of our European Banking Union. As part of this proactive supervision, we will obviously continue to keep a close eye on the risks affecting the financial sector. We just published our Assessment of risks to the French financial system at the end of June ii and it reiterates our confidence in the solidity of French banks. Nevertheless, we will continue to be even more vigilant to the risk of a disorderly market correction which could affect non-bank players most exposed to leverage and liquidity risk. The second reminder came in the crypto-asset sphere with the "crypto winter" punctuated by a long series of shocks: the collapse of Terra-Luna, the failure of FTX, and the legal proceedings taken against Binance and CoinBase in the United States. Europe was a pioneer in this area by adopting MiCA regulation.

If we are to believe the cliché, 'regulation' and 'innovation' are incompatible. On the contrary! Regulation without innovation would just be sterile conservatism, while innovation without regulation and financial stability would be devoid of the trust that is the sine qua non of sustainability. So, to accompany you as you eat your lunch, I'm going to combine these two ingredients, first as part of a hearty main course on the lessons of the crises of 2023 (I), followed by a slightly newer and more forward-looking recipe for the digitalisation of currency and payments (II). I. 2023, illustration of the virtues of regulation The events of 2023 have served as a reminder of the fundamental need for a regulatory framework. Page 2 of 6 The first warning came in the banking sector. Despite the shock waves emanating from the United States and then Switzerland, the banking crisis has not affected the euro area or France in particular, even though we remain on our guard. There is a good reason for this solidity: more solid fundamentals, but above all two inseparable pillars - effective regulation, coupled with proactive supervision. Basel III regulations apply in full to all European banks, but only to 13 banks in the United States. Therefore, the priority is not to keep reworking Basel III requirements – and delaying their application – but to apply them everywhere and as quickly as possible. In a nutshell, more Basel III now, rather than some hypothetical delayed Basel IV.
Many worried that the prices of essentials would keep rising. And many people thought businesses were taking advantage of the inflationary environment to increase profits. People should not have to worry about inflation in this way. I am afraid monetary policy cannot make the shock to our national real income go away. But what monetary policy can – and must – do is to make sure that the inflation that has come to us from abroad does not become lasting inflation generated at home. Homemade inflation will not make us any better off as a country. Those with weak bargaining power will fall further behind. That is why we have increased Bank Rate. This works through the cost of living in a different way, of course: by increasing the cost of credit, including rates on many mortgages. As mortgagors gradually have to pay higher rates, say as exiting fixed-rate deals are replaced by new ones with higher rates, their money left over for spending on other things will fall. Page 10  Chart 4: Average-quoted rates on new mortgages have risen in 2022 Average-quoted rates on two-year fixed-rate mortgages  As this chart shows, new mortgage rates are materially higher than they were a year ago, though they have come down from the elevated levels we saw in the autumn. This means that about 1 in 10 households will see their mortgages go up this year.

But to calculate the annual inflation rate at that point, we have to compare with the April 2022 bill, which had already risen significantly. Because of this base effect, even if the bill itself goes up to a higher level, it goes up by less over a year than it did in October. The annual inflation rate therefore falls sharply from 96% to 52%. The contribution to consumer price inflation from the energy bill will nearly halve. Chart 2d: Typical household energy bill Smaller of Ofgem energy price cap and Energy Price Guarantee  Page 8  Looking further ahead, say to April 2024, the outlook is more uncertain. Wholesale energy prices have come down markedly over the past few months. If they develop as futures prices now suggest, it is likely that Ofgem’s energy price cap will fall below the Energy Price Guarantee. The numbers shown here are guesstimates, but they illustrate that we might expect household energy bills to start falling. This means that annual inflation in the typical bill will eventually turn negative as the bill drops below what it was a year earlier. Energy bills will start to drag directly on overall annual consumer price inflation. But as you can see, this does not mean that we should expect household energy bills to come down to previous levels any time soon. And from a cost-of living perspective, it is the level of what people have to pay that matters.
Regional and international policies on environmental management, governance, and conservation have an important role to play in this area, as environmental decisions of one economy may adversely affect other economies. The achievement of environmental goals will facilitate the achievement of other MDGs. Equally important are transfers of technology that is friendly to the environment as globalisation takes root. 8  BIS Review 74/2004

Japan is experiencing renewed vigour. Prospects for ASEAN on the whole are good, though there are occasional hiccups. Asia is integrating through trade, tourism, people-to-people exchanges, investment flows and production chains. If there are no mishaps, by 2050, half of humanity – the more than 3 billion people in Asia – will enjoy a standard of living which their grandparents did not even dream of. Naturally, Asia's growth trajectory will not be a straight line. Asia has its share of problems too – the North Korean nuclear issue, tensions across the Taiwan Straits, Kashmir and terrorism. But these issues can be and are being managed. Many countries in the Middle East are keen to engage Asia but I have been told that their businessmen are not so familiar with doing business in China and Southeast Asia. This is where Singapore can play a role. As a key financial and commercial hub, Singapore is well-positioned as a gateway for Middle East companies to expand in Asia. Middle Eastern investors can leverage on Singapore's networks and knowledge to venture into Asian markets. There is much that Asia and the Middle East can do together, as we embark on this journey of rediscovery. Although there are significant differences between Asia and the Middle East, we also share common interests and common challenges. We both want to reconcile tradition with modernity and change, to develop without losing our core values. Both Asia and the Middle East can profit by sharing experiences.
Admittedly, economic activity is rebounding in the third quarter, following an unprecedented decline in euro area GDP in the second quarter. This still-partial recovery is highly uneven across both regions and sectors of activity. It is moreover fragile, since the lockdown-easing measures are being accompanied by an increase in infections in some countries. That, in turn, has begun to require the re-introduction of measures in some countries that enable the speed of contagion to be curtailed at the cost of setting certain limits on activity. In fact, the latest economic indicators, such as the PMI and the European Commission’s business sentiment index, showed some slowing in activity in August following the rebound in July. As a result, the recovery is subject to enormous uncertainty. All told, activity in the third quarter is expected to recoup in part the heavy loss of output in the second quarter. Overall euro area growth could thus stand at around 8.4%. For the year as a whole, the ECB’s September macroeconomic projections show, in the baseline scenario, an 8% decline in GDP in 2020 (slightly less sharp than what was expected in June). The economy is expected to pick up as from the third quarter of this year, with increases of 5% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022, although the pre-crisis GDP level would not be attained until the end of the projection period.

The continued international price pressure, combined with an expected appreciation in the krona mean that import price increases will remain low throughout the forecast period. The high productivity growth will also contribute to keeping down companies’ labour costs and thereby inflation (Figure 13). However, these inflation-dampening forces are thus expected to lose strength further ahead. All in all, one can say that we see a favourable and not overly dramatic development of the economy before us. Essentially we see an economy where the wheels are turning at a good pace and things are generally going well. It is natural in such an economy for monetary policy to become less expansionary to ensure the good development continues for a long period. It is difficult to say how quickly the interest rate increases should be made. The inflation forecast we publish today shows that inflation is expected to be slightly below target two years ahead. This is partly due to the fact that energy prices are expected to fall slightly and thereby hold down inflation. When the restraining effect of the energy prices abates, inflation will rise. At the same time, the economy is expected to develop strongly during the forecast period. To ensure that inflation is close to the target and to contribute to a balanced development of the real economy, we decided yesterday to raise the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points. It may in conclusion be worth emphasising that forecasts are always uncertain and that many things may occur to change this picture.
7 Today’s economic models are unable to produce reliable inflation forecasts with a horizon beyond at most three years. I doubt this will change going forward. Nonetheless, developments in monetary aggregates can play a useful role in helping to identify potential imbalances in financial markets which could, in time, undermine economic and price stability. According to a recent study, since 1980, the value of global financial assets excluding real estate has grown from an amount roughly equaling the global GDP to more than three times its size. 8 In light of the growing importance of financial assets, central bankers have an incentive to consider longer-term price risks more thoroughly. In a global economy increasingly affected by the effects of rising and falling asset prices, it seems to me that the role of money and credit aggregates in signaling potential long-term financial imbalances will become more important. Here I would like to refer to Mervyn King who recently said: "Monetary policy will, therefore, need to be alert to the information contained in a wide range of asset prices, to be forward-looking in its aim of maintaining low and stable inflation, and to be ready to respond to changes in the signposts." 9 In practice, it is often difficult to consider money in the conduct of policy. Nonetheless, it allows us to address some of these important issues at least at first approximation.

The number of guarantees approved during the period amounted to 1,668 with a total value of Rls 644 million against loans to the tune of Rls1.6 billion granted by banks under the umbrella of the program, which benefited about 1,113 small and medium enterprises. This is in addition to loans provided by the Saudi Credit and Savings Bank, for financing young people and small enterprises, as well as the Centennial Fund, and Abdul Latif Jameel’s “Finance Program” that provides material support for youth’s projects and training courses. Dear audience, In conclusion, I wish to emphasize that the status of small and medium enterprises in the Kingdom still needs a lot of care and an appropriate environment to perform their required roles in the economy, especially in the field of Saudization of jobs. This important symposium may, hopefully, discuss this topic from its different aspects and provide the necessary recommendations to assist competent authorities in making appropriate decisions for this important sector. Thank you all for listening and wish you success. BIS Review 171/2010  3
The nub of the matter is that euro services will be called for whether or not we join the area. The use of euro will be directed by the market. Naturally the euro would not replace the BIS Review 41/1997  -3-  krona as Sweden's currency if we remained outside but we could probably expect a demand for euro from some agents. According to the Stockholm Stock Exchange, trading in the shares of major companies will gradually switch to euro because handling two currencies would be too costly. In time the money and bond market may be affected in that renewals and new issues are denominated in euro and account for a growing proportion of bond trading. According to the Securities Dealers Association, for instance, large companies and financial markets will also become less interested in kronor. It is too early to say how this transition from kronor to euro will occur in detail. Neither can we foresee how quickly it will proceed or how far. Probably it will be gradual and ultimately also affect private individuals. If the euro turns out to be stable and strong, households will also prefer to have pension savings, for example, in euro securities. Thus, this scenario points to a development where financial markets, companies and even individuals are active in euro, while the public sector continues to use kronor as declared, for instance, in the report from the Ministry of Finance on practical preparations for the euro.

During this period no one is to be compelled to use euro, though this will be encouraged. Kronor and euro will both have the status of legal tender, so we must be prepared to handle them both during this period. But the discussion of this question should continue. Responsibility for information The retail trade report considers that society must be responsible for information about the new currency system. At the same time the Ministry of Interior and others consider that information at points of sale, for example, is primarily a business responsibility. This makes me somewhat uneasy. I believe we must all be prepared to accept an additional responsibility for information about these matters. Otherwise there is a risk of people feeling they are getting insufficient guidance, with an increased risk of the changeover being arduous for everyone. At the Riksbank we will try to do our bit. Brochures about the new means of payments will be distributed, possibly accompanied by ready-reckoners for the conversion rates. Our Payment System Department is working on this. Price information Retailers will be obliged to work for a period with some form of double pricing. The practical arrangements for this are mainly a matter for the retail trade and consumer interests. Rounding In Sweden we have grown used to having the total sum rounded to the nearest 50 öre.
Mark Carney: Uncertainty, the economy and policy Speech by Mr Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, at the Bank of England, London, 30 June 2016. *  *  *  Today I want to discuss what uncertainty means for the UK’s economic performance, and how the Bank of England can best respond to it. The result of the referendum is clear. Its full implications for the economy are not. The UK can handle change. It has one of the most flexible economies in the world and benefits from a deep reservoir of human capital, world-class infrastructure and the rule of law. Its people are admired the world over for their strength under adversity. The question is not whether the UK will adjust but rather how quickly and how well. Nonetheless, the decision to leave the European Union marks a major regime shift. In the coming years, the UK will redefine its openness to the movement of goods, services, people and capital. In tandem, a potentially broad range of regulations might change. Uncertainty over the pace, breadth and scale of these changes could weigh on our economic prospects for some time. While some of the necessary adjustments may prove difficult and many will take time, the transition from the initial shock to the restructuring and then building of the UK economy will be much easier because of our solid policy frameworks. At times of great uncertainty, households, businesses and investors ask basic economic questions.

Figure 2 Long-term interest rates (percent) 4.5  4.5  4.0  4.0  3.5  3.5  3.0  3.0  2.5  2.5  2.0  2.0  1.5  1.5  1.0  1.0  Oct.08  10-year BCU  Jan.09  Apr.09  10-year U.S.A.  Jul.09  10-year Eurozone  Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Bloomberg. 4  BIS Review 105/2009  Figure 3 Deposit rates (percent) 12  12  10  10  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  02  03  04  30-89 days  05  06  90 days to 1 year  07  08  09  1 to 3 years  MPR  Source: Central Bank of Chile.
The inflation target is an anchor for inflation expectations in the foreign exchange market, for the social partners in connection with wage settlements and for those setting prices for goods and services. In recent years, average inflation has been fairly close to, but somewhat lower than, the target of 2.5 per cent. Consumer price inflation peaked in October 2008 and has since receded. In the year to August 2009, CPI inflation was 1.9 per cent. Inflation measured by the CPI varies somewhat from month to month, primarily reflecting wide fluctuations in energy prices. CPIXE inflation shows developments in the consumer price index adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. This indicator provides a more accurate picture of underlying inflation. By this measure, underlying inflation peaked at 3 per cent last autumn, but has since slowed somewhat and was 2.3 per cent in August. Underlying inflation is now below the inflation target. Inflation is slowing as a result of the decline in output and wage growth last year and the beginning of this year and is expected to fall to below 2 per cent in early 2010. Inflation ahead will depend on how quickly capacity utilisation picks up and by developments in the krone exchange rate. Activity in the Norwegian economy has held up better than expected just a few months ago. Higher capacity utilisation and low productivity growth may result in stronger-than-expected upward pressure on costs and point towards somewhat higher inflation in the medium term.

Fluctuations in equity markets are less pronounced but are still wider than before the market turbulence began. Expected corporate earnings have not changed substantially since March 2009. It is likely that the recovery in equity markets primarily reflects a reduction in uncertainty and lower risk premiums. Oil prices have doubled since the trough in December 2008, reflecting OPEC production cuts and concerns in non-OPEC countries about supply further ahead. In addition, a number of  BIS Review 115/2009  1  market participants expect that oil demand ahead will increase at a more rapid pace than assumed as global economic activity picks up. Expectations of future economic growth are pushing up oil futures prices. Oil consumption is now rising in China but has been very low in western economies. OPEC spare production capacity is still increasing and oil inventories in advanced economies are high. Oil prices have nonetheless held up. Keeping large inventories is profitable when oil futures prices are high. However, the scales are easily tipped. If expectations of higher demand deteriorate, futures prices will fall and, in turn, prices for immediate delivery. Large oil inventories may then push down prices even further. The krone is floating and fluctuates somewhat. The krone tends to appreciate in good times and depreciate when negative shocks occur in the Norwegian economy. Fiscal policy and the petroleum fund mechanism, however, contribute to maintaining the stability of the krone.
Reforms also are being considered for money market mutual funds, where the inherent run risk in the event that a money market mutual fund “breaks the buck” continues to be a significant vulnerability. Yet a third set of initiatives in the reform agenda seeks to strengthen the clearance and settlement infrastructure for over the counter derivatives. In addition to creating incentives to move derivative transactions into trade repositories and central counterparties, which provide the benefits of risk management mechanisms and encouragement of standardization of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  contract terms, the reform efforts extend to improving the international legal framework for derivatives transactions in the event of default and failure or resolution. Regulatory reform can create guardrails for the financial system, but in my view, those reforms are far more effective if accompanied by similar reform efforts in the private sector. Private sector reform can take the form of enhancing internal governance, re-evaluating strategy and business models, and strengthening risk management and internal controls within individual firms. It can also take the form of industry collective action to improve market structure and practice, to invest in financial infrastructure and to recommend best practices. In the U.S., the combination of public sector – and private sector – driven reform has historically played an important role in our financial system and should play a role today.

•  Concern that instrument complexity and transaction volume could overwhelm settlement systems. Post 2008, these issues sound all too familiar, of course. Of particular note, the report stated that: A major source of concern derives from the difficulties in pricing new instruments and the possibility that many new instruments appear to be, at least to some degree, underpriced, that is, that gross income from the transactions is insufficient, on average, to compensate fully for their inherent risks. Since it may be necessary to accumulate experience over a variety of circumstances and cyclical conditions in order for market participants fully to understand and assess all elements of risk, this problem may appear especially before the market for a new product has reached maturity. The recent financial crisis in many ways represented the realization of many of these concerns. Some observations: •  1  2  The crisis demonstrated how the combination of poor underwriting, financial engineering, and leverage could transform what had been viewed as relatively safe markets for US residential mortgages, magnify risks in those instruments through securitization and leverage, and transmit the risks around large parts of the globe. Recent innovations in international banking (Cross Report). BIS central bankers’ speeches  •  The speed at which liquidity deterioration, market dysfunction and financial institution distress set in was breathtaking – far faster than experienced in earlier crises.