samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The second reason is that transparency reduces the inevitable uncertainties related to monetary policy implementation. If markets know how we judge future inflationary pressures and how we may react to these, they can better predict our future monetary policy. Improved predictability of monetary policy leads to fewer painful surprises in the economy. Moreover, less uncertainty about monetary policy reduces both risk premiums in financial markets, and financing costs. The third rationale for central bank transparency is public and political accountability. Central banks are mandated to act in the interest of their country, usually by maintaining price stability. This can imply unpopular decisions, which is essentially the reason for central bank independence. . Central banks should thus be free from public and political pressure. But it is obvious that some mechanism must be set in place to ensure accountability of independent central banks. Transparency about monetary policy is essential to central bank ensure accountability. However, transparency in itself is  BIS Review 55/2006  1  not enough. The statements made by central bankers must be accessible to the public and must be subject to scrutiny. Here, a critical press has a very important role to play. 2. Communication of monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank  In order to improve monetary policy effectiveness and enable public accountability the Swiss National Bank started to regularly explain its monetary policy decisions to the public already in the 1970's.

Market predictions of monetary policy measures have been accurate, leading to lower volatility in financial markets and improving the effectiveness of our policy measures A prime example of this is the most recent increase in our operational target in March 2006. An analysis of interest rate movements shows that the increase of our operational target by 25 basis points was almost fully anticipated by financial markets prior to the announcement. Contrary to what many believe, a central bank does not lose any prestige in seeing its policy correctly anticipated by the markets. It is just proof of a well-understood monetary strategy. 3. Credibility - words are not enough  In Switzerland, the systematic communication of monetary policy has had the desired effect of getting market participants to adapt their expectations well before actual policy interventions are made. Does this mean that the Swiss National Bank now only has to indicate its intentions in order to influence interest rates? Or as some academics and practitioners have posed the question: can central bankers now replace open market operations with "open mouth" interventions? Considering the recent tightening of monetary policy in Switzerland, one might be tempted to agree that open mouth operations are sufficient to move interest rates. After all, short-term interest rates rose long before an increase in the operational target was announced or before we raised the actual interest rates on repo transactions. However, this interpretation of the data ignores one crucial issue.
At first blush, the most natural suspect might appear to be a continuation of the recent rapid increases in the prices of oil and other commodities. As I said, commodity prices have increased sharply over the past year and the strong demand from emerging economies, especially China, which has underpinned much of that rise, looks set to continue.8 But this ignores the fact that one of the reasons why commodity prices increased so much through 2010 was exactly because demand was expected to remain strong. Indeed, looking ahead, futures prices are broadly flat. Now there are many reasons why commodity prices may not be expected to follow exactly the path implied by futures prices. For example, if investors require a positive risk premium for holding commodities, or because some commodities cannot be easily stored. And further sharp movements in commodity prices are certainly possible. But I wouldn’t expect to see rapid increases in commodities prices of the like seen over the past year unless global demand turned out to be significantly stronger – or supply weaker – than currently anticipated. But inflation at home could also be affected by more general inflationary trends. Average inflation in the largest emerging economies increased from 2.8% to 5.3% last year.9 This in large part reflects rising local and global food prices. But overheating in many emerging  8  Events in Japan and the Middle East and North Africa have also had an important influence on commodity prices in recent weeks.

Finally, I am concerned about a potential interaction between the financial uncertainty associated with the tapering program and the political uncertainty about fiscal negotiations in the US in the coming months. To close our conference, tomorrow we will have a policy panel where three distinguished economists: Guillermo Calvo, Vittorio Corbo, and Maurice Obstfeld, will share their thoughts on the end of QE and its consequences for emerging markets. We have navigated through challenging times in recent years. The decisive action of policymakers worldwide has spared the global economy from further trouble. In many cases policy has had to go ahead of research. But we should take time to think hard about these events; their causes; their mechanisms; and the benefits and costs of the policies being implemented. This will allow us to finish the course and to derive important lessons for the future. I am confident that the discussion of the next two days will help us advance toward this goal. I would like to finish this presentation by thanking Claudio Raddatz, Diego Saravia, and Jaume Ventura for putting together an exciting program and all of you for coming to participate and share in the discussion. Thank you References Bianchi, J. (2011) “Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle,” American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pp. 3400–3426, December 2011. Dell’Ariccia, G., Laeven, L., and Suarez, G. (2013) “Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy’s Risk‐ Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States,” IMF Working Paper 13/143, International Monetary Fund.
Sources: ONS, IHS Markit/CIPS, CBI, Bank of England and Bank calculations. Chart 3c: Government balance also cyclical  Chart 4: When the monetary regime is stable policy rates are more responsive to economic growth and inflation is less volatile  Sources: ONS and Bank calculations. Based on GDP growth and inflation smoothed over 2-year periods, and Bank Rate changes over 2 years. Sources: Thomas and Dimsdale (2017), Feinstein (1991), O'Donoghue et al (2004), ONS and Bank calculations. In the interim, and especially during and between the two world wars, the correlation between interest rates and economic growth was lower and the volatility of inflation higher. This is as you’d expect. To stabilise  7  With the nominal price of the metal fixed, the effective target for the price of goods and services in a gold standard regime is the inverse of its real equilibrium price. A rise in the supply of metal, from new discoveries for example, leads to inflation in the CPI (allowing the real price of gold to fall). If demand for gold rises (for example because of strong economic growth more generally), without any increase in the supply, the CPI tends to fall. Subject to these variations, a gold standard amounts to a target for the level of the CPI. 8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  8  inflation the monetary authority needs to lean against the cycle, at least when it’s driven by swings in demand8.

When parliament decided in 1811 to delay the restoration of convertibility until after the war had ended Ricardo was withering: “I trust the day is not far distant when we shall look back with astonishment at the delusion to which we have so long been subject, in allowing a company of merchants [i.e. the Bank of England], notoriously ignorant of the most obvious principles of political economy, to regulate at their will, the value of the property of a great portion of the community”. In defence of the modern company, I feel bound to point out that it is now state-owned, employs no “merchants” but has plenty of well-trained economists. Ricardo would also be satisfied, one would hope, that “the value of the property of a great portion of the community”, which I will take to be the CPI, is no longer regulated “at will” but at the behest of parliament in the form of a 2% target for inflation. 22 Thanks to over-issue of the new “assignat” France had suffered from a hyperinflation in the years after the revolution. When the new government came back to the market, in the mid-1790s, it was charged over 60% for new debt. Determined efforts to restore the link credibly to gold allowed that yield to fall significantly but it remained well above the cost of British government debt throughout the war (for the contrast with the credibility of British policy see Bordo and White (1991), Bordo and Kydland (1995) and Chada and Newby (2013).
Their view of the Swedish economy has continued to deteriorate and they have also become gloomier with regard to their own economy. At the same time, households’ inflation expectations one year ahead have risen significantly. However, it can also be noted that households perceive the current inflation rate to be much higher than it actually is. Prior to our next monetary policy meeting we will receive measures of inflation expectations among other groups which must also be analysed (Prospera). The new National Accounts for the first quarter that were published earlier today show that growth in the first quarter was weaker than we had expected. They also show that labour productivity increased slightly in the first quarter of this year, after having fallen for most of 2007. We will be closely analysing what the new GDP statistics otherwise entail for our assessments prior to our next meeting in July. Preliminary statistics indicate a lower rate of wage increase than we had estimated – both for blue-collar and white-collar workers – during the first months of this year. One possible reason for this is the composition effects in the wage statistics. If, for example, new groups are being employed at low entry wages to a greater extent than before, then the average rate of wage increase will be lower. But so far there have not been any signs that the rate of wage increase has accelerated. Of course, this is something we are monitoring closely. Inflation is still high, just as I said before.

The analysis made in that scenario only takes into account an alternative outcome for the oil price. The analysis made in a monetary policy decision takes into account everything that has happened in the economy. How all these aspects should be weighed together is something I and my colleagues on the Executive Board will have to consider when we meet for a new monetary policy meeting in the first week of July. 6  BIS Review 68/2008
18 Since then, migration has increased steadily and at the end of 2017 the percentage of those born abroad was more than 18 per cent. The migration streams can vary substantially from year to year, but the trend has been rising and there has been a particularly substantial increase in recent decades, see Figure 9. Figure 9. Immigration and emigration as a proportion of population, 1900–2018 1.8  1.8 Immigration 1.5  Emigration  1.5  1.2  1.2  0.9  0.9  0.6  0.6  0.3  0.3  0 1900  1915  1930  1945  1960  1975  1990  2005  0  Note. Per cent of the population. To be counted as an emigrant, a person must have the intention of living abroad for at least one year. To be counted as an immigrant, a person must have the intention of staying in Sweden for at least one year. Source: Statistics Sweden  Immigration to Sweden follows an international trend with increasingly large migration streams. Between 2000 and 2017 the total number of migrants in the world increased by around 50 per cent. There are roughly around 260 million migrants at the moment, most of whom are from low-income countries. These migrants move at approximately the same extent to low income countries as to high income countries, see Figure 10a. Migration from high income countries is much less common, but there is a not insignificant amount of migration between high income countries.

To conclude this address that has already been rather too lengthy, I should just like to remove any ambiguity that may have arisen from the discussions that have intensified with the crisis. I do not think that it is in anyone's interest in the current period to weaken accounting conventions. Accurate, rigorous and fully transparent financial statements are the bedrock of financial activity. The aim of the work and discussions that have been actively pursued over the last few months and that will continue in the coming period is in fact both a modest and a difficult one. It is to ensure that accounting conventions fully reflect the reality of financial activities and are not overambitious. This undoubtedly means reviewing the role of fair value in the accounting treatment of financial instruments. Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 160/2008  3
The marked weakening in the economy would cast a pall over the earnings prospects of Swiss companies, and Swiss equities would come under pressure. Although short-term interest rates in Switzerland would no longer be negative, there would be little change in capital market interest rates owing to the deterioration in the economic outlook. All in all, the level of interest rates would thus remain low, and so too would the yields on long-term Swiss franc bonds. Ultimately, there would be scarcely any significant improvement for savers, pension funds, life insurers and banks. The same goes for the real estate market. Although its momentum would be curbed somewhat if we were to cease charging negative interest, there would be little change in the low level of interest rates and the impact would therefore be limited. In the current situation, the risks to financial stability must be addressed with focused macroprudential measures. This will then curb demand for mortgages and real estate and strengthen banks’ resilience. Ladies and Gentlemen, abandoning the negative interest rate in the current environment would weigh heavily on the Swiss economy. This would not help either savers or pension funds, nor would it be beneficial for financial stability. In other words, as things stand at present, removing the negative interest rate would not be in the interests of our country as a whole. Focusing on the big picture We introduced the negative interest rate after careful consideration of the advantages and disadvantages. We continually assess its effectiveness, and objectively analyse the costs and benefits.

From mid-2014 onwards, the international monetary policy environment began to change. On the one hand there were increasingly clearer signs that the US was about to adopt a tightening stance, whereas in the euro area a loosening of monetary policy was becoming more and more likely. The euro subsequently depreciated markedly against the major currencies. As a result, by the beginning of 2015 the minimum exchange rate was no longer sustainable. To retain control over our monetary policy, we therefore decided in January 2015 to change tack. In that exceptional situation, we had to weigh up the pros and cons of using alternative unconventional instruments. It became apparent that we would have to lower interest rates below zero given that various other central banks had already done so. This was the only way we could limit the appeal of the Swiss franc. When we discontinued the minimum exchange rate, we thus also imposed negative interest of –0.75% on banks’ sight deposits held at the SNB. This then brought the level of interest rates in Switzerland back down below that in other countries. Coupled with our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, the negative interest rate has taken the pressure off the Swiss franc and prevented a sharp drop in inflation.
Over this twoday period, we have lined up a panel of distinguished speakers, including the Honourable Prime Minister of Malaysia himself as well as Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia. The invited speakers are from various prestigious institutions, domestic and international with unique expertise and experiences. You can be rest assured that the speakers we are bringing to you are renowned in their own field and their views are well sought after by global investors and the financial fraternity. The major highlight of this conference is the keynote address by the Honourable Dato' Seri Abdullah bin Haji Ahmad Badawi, the Prime Minister of Malaysia who is also the Finance Minister. His address will offer invaluable insights into Malaysia's policy and strategies to sustain its strong growth performance. The next significant highlight of this conference is a speech by Tan Sri Dato' Seri Dr. Zeti Akhtar Aziz, the Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia, who will touch on investment opportunities in Malaysia in an evolving global environment. This speech is timely given so much interest shown by both domestic and international investors in the Malaysian economy. Both the Prime Minister and Governor will offer invaluable insights into strategic orientation of important policies that will chart the Malaysian economy going forward. Therefore, these are the main events not to be missed. Of course you should not miss other speakers too! They will touch on various topics according to their areas of expertise.

More importantly, you will get to hear investment opportunities in Malaysia with a special focus on conventional and Islamic financial institutions products. For selected topis, there will be workshops for in depth discussions with panel members who are prominent speakers from industries as well as regulatory bodies. It will be interesting to find out what will transpire in the workshops that await you. Ladies and gentlemen, This Investors Conference is also a gathering of investors, bankers, fund managers, regulators and industry leaders from Malaysia and the world over. This is an excellent opportunity for you to capitalize on their presence by networking with them. I am sure you have a lot to gain from their experiences and first-hand knowledge in their own fields. Furthermore, for information on investment opportunities in Malaysia, there are 15 exhibition booths from major financial institutions and regulators set up in this convention centre specifically for you. Please make a point to visit the exhibition booths, which showcase financial products and services in Malaysia. I am sure these booths have informative brochures to give out and are more than happy to answer any queries you may have. BIS Review 49/2005  1  There will be a very special event at the end of the second day. Tan Sri Dato' Seri Dr. Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia will launch two new indices - the Citigroup Malaysian Government Bond Index and Dow Jones - RHB Islamic Malaysia Index.
They have done so more acutely in certain particularly vulnerable emerging market economies, and relatively moderately – to date – in the advanced economies where share prices have fallen and corporate debt spreads have risen since mid-2018. Against this background, consumer price indices have tended to post significant slowdowns in the final stretch of 2018, which are mainly due to the notable recent decline in oil prices. In the euro area, the lesser pace of economic activity in the first three quarters of 2018 led the ECB, in December, to revise down its growth forecast for the year to 1.9%, 0.6 percentage points (pp) less than in 2017. Discounting the effect of certain transitory factors, such as strikes, bad weather and, more recently, the temporary difficulties in the automobile industry, especially in Germany, and the “yellow jackets” crisis in France, everything points to a significant slowdown in the pace of expansion of the euro area in 2018 compared with 2017. Of particular note is the sluggishness of exports, weighed down by the moderation of global trade and by the possible lagged effects of the appreciation of the euro. Conversely, domestic demand appears to have remained firmer, at least until the most recent period, underpinned by the favourable financial conditions and the growth of employment and of household and corporate income. According to the latest ECB forecasts, the expenditure of these agents will continue to allow GDP growth rates in the euro area to remain somewhat above their potential over the coming years.

However, when bank capital is measured relative to the risk of the activities it is intended to support, the resulting measures - while strong - are not significantly different from 1998 levels. The earnings capacity of the largest institutions has increased substantially and in some cases the volatility of those earnings has declined with the increased scope of their operations. •  The infrastructure of the financial system, meaning the clearing and settlement system, is stronger and seems better able to handle much larger volumes, which is an important source of resilience in periods of stress. Our overall judgement is that the U.S. financial system today is significantly stronger than it was in 1998. It has proven to be quite strong in the face of a number of fairly substantial recent adverse events. And there is some evidence that hedge funds have helped contribute to this resilience, not just in the general contribution they provide by taking on risk, but as a source of liquidity in periods of increased stress and risk aversion in the rest of the financial system. And yet, hedge funds – and financial leverage more generally - still present a source of potential risk to the financial system. The nature of these risks are worth reassessing, given the rapid growth in the hedge fund sector, the increased complexity of their interactions with major dealers, and concerns about unevenness in risk management practices and some recent possible erosion in the quality of counterparty discipline across the financial sector.