samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Too often, however, euro area countries are prevented from reaping the benefits of their position by the rigidities that have accumulated over time, during the periods of easy growth. Now, the international environment is more challenging: new and powerful competitors have emerged and comparative advantages are shifting. There is no alternative to adjustment. Already, the crisis has produced significant reforms in many countries, with the downsizing of the public sector, changes in labour regulation and more competition in goods markets. We have seen a significant improvement in cost competitiveness as measured by unit labor costs (ULC): between 2008 and 2012, in the three program countries (Greece, Portugal and Ireland) cumulated ULC growth stood about 12 percentage points below the euro area average, thanks either to wage cuts, to productivity gains, or to both. The current account balances as well clearly show a strong correction. In the three program countries the current account balances in percent of GDP improved by more than 9 percentage points between 2008 and 2012. In Spain the current account deficit improved by more than 7 percentage points over the same period. Part of the adjustment has been driven by a contraction in domestic demand. However, in Ireland, Spain and Portugal export performance has been very strong compared with the pre-crisis period. In total, the euro area generated a trade surplus of more than 1% of its GDP in 2012 compared with around zero in previous years. We expect this surplus to continue in the coming years.

This calls for increased innovation on the part of the financial sector in developing products to support a growing economy. Ladies and Gentlemen, in conclusion, may I simply state that as we consolidate macro-economic stability, we are committed to achieving the necessary economic growth that will have a bearing on poverty levels in the country. In this regard, we see the future of the Zambian economy as one which  BIS Review 72/2006  5  is highly diversified through resuscitating the industrial base to enable increased value addition and employment creation. We strongly believe that increased value addition is key to sustained development. I would like to urge you all and those in the private sector that are not with us to take advantage of the immense investment opportunities in our country. Let me once again thank you for inviting me to share my thoughts on this important topic. I thank you for your attention. 6  BIS Review 72/2006
Next January we will be 17, with Estonia joining. This highlights the challenge of permanently strengthening and deepening the governance of the euro area, with new economies coming in. Financial Times: Before we talk about governance, let me ask you some specific questions about the crisis management measures. How are you going to reduce the dependence of the likes of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland on extra liquidity provided by the ECB? Jean-Claude Trichet: As you know, the European economy relies very much in terms of financing on commercial banks. So it’s not surprising that our own “non-standard measures” concentrate much more on bank refinancing than on intervening in markets, in comparison with the Fed. As markets gradually stabilise, our non-standard measures, which are fully consistent with our mandate and, by construction, temporary in nature, will continue to be  BIS Review 115/2010  1  progressively phased out. So we are accompanying the market as it progressively goes back to normal. But, as I said already, it is a process which takes time. Financial Times: Do you have in mind, though, a need to phase out “non-standard” refinancing and do you have a sort of time horizon for this? Jean-Claude Trichet: We of course have to consider all those measures as transitory. They are there to cope with a situation which is abnormal – to help correct those markets that are dysfunctional and thereby help restore a more normal transmission mechanism for our monetary policy.

Financial Times: And what about temporary suspension of membership or even expulsion of a member that is systematically breaching this...? Jean-Claude Trichet: No, I don’t call for expelling members, but a temporary suspension of voting rights is something that should be explored. Financial Times: In retrospect, shouldn’t Europe have undertaken bank stress test earlier? Jean-Claude Trichet: I think so. The ECB and the Bank of England were very much in favour of this stress test. Of course, we have a very complex institutional environment, involving cooperation in real time among 27 EU capitals. It was really essential to have this exercise undertaken on a unified basis, simultaneously. You know that we particularly welcomed the detailed publication of the results for the 91 banks involved. Financial Times: Are you worried about deflation in Europe? Jean-Claude Trichet: No, I do not see the materialisation of a risk of deflation, or either of inflation, at present. We went through the heat of the crisis without any materialisation of deflationary risks. Our successful and solid anchoring of inflation expectations has protected us, I trust, very well against the materialisation of inflation risks – but also against the materialisation of deflation risks. Financial Times: And what about deflation in the United States, is that different? Jean-Claude Trichet: I fully rely upon the analysis of the Federal Reserve. Financial Times: But how serious do you think is the present weakness of the American economy?
Norman T L Chan: Remarks at the Hong Kong Academy of Finance Inauguration Ceremony and fellowship conferment Welcome remarks by Mr Norman T L Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Hong Kong Academy of Finance Inauguration Ceremony cum Fellowship Conferment, Hong Kong, 26 June 2019. * * * The Honourable Paul Chan, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, 1. A very warm welcome to all of you for joining us today to witness the Inauguration Ceremony cum Fellowship Conferment of the Hong Kong Academy of Finance (AoF). 2. I strongly believe that the most crucial factor that differentiates an international financial centre (IFC) from the other aspiring financial centres is its superior “soft infrastructure” or “soft power”. I am sure you will agree with me that the quality and professionalism of the people in the financial services industry are the building blocks for the “soft infrastructure” that determines the competitiveness of an IFC. The mission of the Academy is to serve as a centre of excellence for developing financial leadership as well as a repository of knowledge in monetary and financial research, including applied research. 3. The AoF will develop and run a Leadership Development Programme to nurture financial leaders in Hong Kong. The Academy will invite senior management and promising talents from financial institutions, regulators, professional firms and academia in the field of finance to join as Members.

That can mean a “second engine” for growth from abroad. But it can also mean a dragging anchor when things go awry across borders. 5  See for example Grossman, G and Helpman, E (1991), Innovation and growth in the global economy, MIT Press. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3. Role of the EU in UK dynamism and stability  How has the EU affected the UK’s dynamism and stability? Let me begin with the first. 3.1  Role of EU in UK dynamism  In some respects the UK is the leading beneficiary of the famous “Four Freedoms” first set out in the 1957 Treaty of Rome.6 These are the free movement of goods and services, capital and labour, enhanced over time through a range of measures to reduce impediments across the EU. So although the UK’s dynamism is the product of many factors including deep human capital, well-developed physical infrastructure, a competitive fiscal regime and the rule of law; the EU has arguably bolstered it by establishing the world’s largest single market with free movement of goods, services, capital and labour. The UK has further benefited from these dynamics by retaining relatively flexible labour and product markets. In product markets, home and foreign firms receive close to equal treatment; the administrative burden on start-ups is second lowest in the G7; incumbent firms receive the lowest regulatory protection in the G7; and product market regulation is light (Charts 5–8).
The current “crisis of trust” is often attributed to the Great Recession of 2008 and has been compounded by the adverse side effects of globalization and technology as well as numerous high profile examples of untrustworthy behavior by politicians, banks and various institutions. The response to this lack of trust in institutions has been to look elsewhere. “A person like yourself” is now as credible as an academic or technical expert, and far more credible than a CEO or a government official – reflecting a shift in trust toward family and friends that we have witnessed on social media. An agenda for rebuilding trustworthiness We need expertise more than ever to solve the world’s problems. But we are in a time where confidence in experts is at an all-time low. Many are trying to think of ways to restore trust in experts and institutions. In her very thoughtful Reith Lectures, Onora O’Neill was skeptical that requiring ever greater transparency (“it seems no information about an institution and profession is too boring or routine to remain unpublished”) and  22  Edelman Trust Barometer (2017). 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7  imposing ever more box ticking accountability would work. Transparency is not good enough if information is inaccessible and unassessible. Instead, we should focus more on increasing trustworthiness.

23  Societies  have two ways of doing this: (1) legislation, regulation or guidance that set standards often accompanied by requirements to check compliance and (2) providing information that empowers individuals to assess trustworthiness for themselves. 24  What could this look like? In this final section I will sketch out the elements of an agenda that could enhance the trustworthiness of experts. 1. Experts should embrace uncertainty As was once so eloquently put by Mervyn King, experts must resist the pressure for “an illusion of certainty”. 25  Bertrand Russell once said, “The whole problem of the world is that fools and fanatics are  always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.” So much of public debate today is painted in black and white when the reality is normally multicoloured. In most fields of scientific enquiry from economics, to medicine, to climate change - we make progress by making progressively better guesses. We are uncertain not only about whether our models are calibrated correctly, but even about whether our models are the right ones to be using at all. Rather than pretending to be certain and risk frequently getting it wrong, being candid about uncertainty will over the long term build the credibility of experts.
The country’s improved economic fundamentals and the resilient financial system have enabled the gradual pace of liberalisation of the FEA rules since 2003. A fact that is often over looked is that, during the recent crisis, contrary to actions undertaken by many, Malaysia had further liberalized the FEA rules to promote greater efficiency in the conduct of international trade, promote a conducive business environment and to allow the use of domestic currency in the settlement of trade with the country’s major trading partners. This is a timely measure, given the country’s strong linkages with the global and regional economies in particular, the Asian economies. The various measures put in place by the authorities have enabled Malaysia to be ranked as the Top 10 most competitive nation in the World Economic Report by IMD, Switzerland. On ease of doing business, FEA’s ranking had also improved significantly from 13th (which is one of the most problematic) in 2005/2006 to 2nd place (easiest for doing business) in 2009/2010 reflecting partly the stakeholders’ positive assessment on FEA to support the conduct of business in Malaysia. The country’s easy and facilitative regulatory environment including FEA rules, had also contributed to Malaysia’s recent upgrading from a “Secondary Emerging Market” to a “Advanced Emerging Market” status in the FTSE’s Country Classification Index, hence the potential increase in non-residents’ investments in Malaysia following the increase in Malaysia’s weightage in the index from the current level of 2.41% by June 2011.

This was mainly attributed to the seasonal inflationary pressures associated with food prices during this time of the year, as well as pass-through effects of the exchange rate depreciation. Distinguished Media Practitioners, you will also be interested to note that the Bank of Zambia has been refining its monetary and supervisory tools. The Bank recorded a shift in its Monetary Policy Framework in 2012 from the strict use of monetary aggregates to short-term interest rates, to better anchor inflation expectations. To this effect, the Bank of Zambia introduced a Policy Rate in April 2012 to, among other things, enhance communication of monetary policy direction to the public and introduce transparency in the way commercial banks and other financial institutions price their products. Ladies and Gentlemen, owing to the general decline in the rate of inflation over time, interest rates are expected to decline. However, commercial banks’ average lending rate rose to 16.4% in December 2013 from 16.1% in December 2012 largely reflecting upward adjustment in the Bank of Zambia Policy Rate. The adjustment in the Policy Rate was aimed as containing inflationary pressures attributed to removal of fuel and maize subsidies during the year. In 2013, the average lending rate increased to 17.0% at end-March. As the cost of borrowing is a key factor in facilitating sustainable economic growth and enhanced financial inclusion, it is one of Bank of Zambia’s objectives to see commercial banks’ lending rates eventually trending down significantly.
At the beginning of this year a common accord was reached on the principles to be implied in the case of bad loans if necessary. Up to now, the guarantees promised to the banking sector, primarily by older Member States, amount to some three billion euro, which is about 24% of GDP. In addition, countries such as Ireland, the Netherlands and Great Britain, have injected a lot of national capital into their banks. In Great Britain, for example, it has become necessary to segregate bad loans. Third of all, to maintain economic growth potential, Member States should implement the structural reforms set out in the Lisbon Strategy. The reforms help reinforce competitiveness, i.e., increase the flexibility of the economy and the labour market. The European economic policy must take into account that external demand and exports may not bounce back to the recent levels for several years. Therefore, the EU should start making even more use of the possibilities of its large domestic market. In Member States that have so far been focusing on exports this may mean an increase in the share of services, changes in employment, and more flexible forms of work. Thus, it can be said the principles agreed upon in the EU give the Member States all the possibilities for exiting the economic crisis. Fiscal policy in the EU as a whole is forecast to loosen around 5% of GDP in 2009 compared to "normal" times and the ECB has lowered the interest rate to 1.25%.

The British prime minister’s speech last week provided some clarifications but it is essential to bear one clear principle in mind: the single market is not divisible; access to the single market is inseparable from respecting its rules. This makes a simple free trade agreement such as that proposed by Theresa May very difficult and there can be no cherry picking with regard to Europe. The German Chancellor has quite rightly stressed that it is essential for all 27 Member States to be united on this matter. ** I will conclude by sharing my conviction with you. In the face of US and global uncertainties, I want the euro area to be an area of relative stability and growth. But now more than ever, France and Germany must act together. As a central banker, our duty is to implement the best possible monetary policy for the euro area, in keeping with our mandate. But this monetary policy neither can, nor should, do everything. It is also my responsibility to make proposals for more effective economic policies. I have outlined some ideas to you with my conviction as a European and I am now happy to answer your questions. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
First, the NPL ratio dropped from above 20 percent at end-2014 to almost 6 percent presently, making it the largest adjustment in the EU over a relatively short time period. At the core of this adjustment were conservative requirements for provisioning NPLs, our hands-on supervisory approach, and a fiscal facility that was conducive to the development of the secondary market for NPLs. Second, the share of leu-denominated loans in the total stock of loans has increased from one third prior to the crisis to two thirds nowadays, with the benefit of reducing contagion risk and improving the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy. However, it would be risky to press ahead too fast. In the case of the ECB, while the tapering of its QE has already started, an upward move in the interest rate is not likely to happen soon. As for peer countries such as Poland and Hungary, their macroeconomic conditions do not seem to 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  warrant a start of the tightening cycle this year either, with still below-target inflation. As long as real interest rates remain negative all over Europe, straying too far away from our regional peers in terms of policy rate would invite disproportionate appreciation pressures, which – while helpful in terms of inflation – would not be a welcome development, given Romania’s increasingly negative external imbalance.

Therefore, striking the right balance in terms of the interest rate differential is of the essence – after the substantial tightening undertaken so far, translating into money market rates increases by almost 200 bps (a normal development given the size of the inflation differential), it is probably wise to proceed more cautiously from now on. As such, the future action of the NBR is likely to depend on how the process of monetary policy normalisation will be unfolding in Europe. Policy normalisation is a question of “when”, not “if”. It will eventually gain momentum and the impact of major central banks’ policy reversals on emerging economies should not be underestimated. When the tide eventually hits, the extent of the damage depends on how vulnerable emerging economies are to external financing. A contained current account deficit, a long average maturity on public and private foreign currency debt and a proper policy mix will help limit the negative externalities. Summing up, keeping internal and external imbalances in check is the only way our economies will be able to cope with the strong volatility headwinds ahead of us. Indeed, it would be a shame if the necessary reforms were not undertaken now, while there is a window of opportunity. 14 May 2018, Bodrum, Turkey  3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
In this way uncertainty diminishes and therefore also the risk premiums in the fixed income market, thus leading to improved efficiency in the economy. Economists also say that the price mechanism works better when inflation is low. This means that changes in relative prices become more evident the more stable the general price level is. There has also been a marked stiffening of competition as many markets in a large number of countries have been deregulated or re-regulated with the express purpose of lowering barriers to entry and increasing price competition. Another contributory factor is the rise in productivity that increasingly appears to be a reverse in the trend. In the US and a number of European countries, including Sweden, labour productivity has increased considerably faster since the middle of the 1990s. In Sweden productivity growth in the business sector averaged 2.7 per cent during the period 1995-2001. It has risen further since then, although cyclical effects have presumably something to do with this. We will have better information regarding the durability of the rise in productivity when the business cycle matures and employment picks up. It is worth noting that low inflation in the world economy has not come at the cost of higher volatility in the real economy. Instead GDP growth has also stabilised during the 1990s and current decade, as indicated by the recent, mild downturn.

The increase in payroll tax rates, the rise in high income tax rates, the increase in taxes associated with the Affordable Care Act, and the sequester will result in fiscal drag of about 1¾ percentage points of GDP in 2013, an unusually large amount of fiscal restraint when the economy doesn’t have strong forward momentum and unemployment is still elevated. In terms of the labor market, we have seen only a moderate improvement in labor market conditions over the past six months or so. After an encouraging pick up in the pace of job creation around the turn of the year, the employment report for March showed a gain of only 88,000 jobs. While I don’t want to read too much into a single month’s data, this underscores the need to wait and see how the economy develops before declaring victory prematurely. I’d note that we saw similar slowdowns in job creation in 2011 and 2012 after pickups in the job creation rate and this, along with the large amount of fiscal restraint hitting the economy now, makes me more cautious. Since September, payroll employment has increased an average of 188,000 per month, compared with an average of 172,000 per month over the previous two years. The unemployment rate has declined from a peak of 10 percent in October 2009 to 7.6 percent in March; however, much of the decrease is due to a fall in the number of people actively looking for a job.