samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Forward guidance gave households and businesses confidence that Bank Rate would not be raised at least until jobs, incomes and spending were growing at sustainable rates. Guidance encouraged businesses to hire and spend, and helped keep expected interest rates low, even as the economy recovered strongly. In parallel, we encouraged banks to continue repairing their balance sheets. Changes to the Bank’s liquidity policy further supported lending. The core of the financial system is now on a sound footing and making an increasingly important contribution to the recovery. We are now faced with the challenge of turning that recovery, which has steadily gained momentum and breadth over the past year, into a durable expansion. To do so, we need balance. Its absence can have serious consequences. One has only to look back to 1931 when Britain’s economic prospects were strained by high unemployment, a large budget deficit and a deteriorating balance of payments. In the ensuing crisis sterling was forced off the gold standard and the government of the day resigned. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  And the Governor? With the uncanny foresight of a central banker, Montagu Norman had already left the scene “to get a bit of rest [in Quebec]”, he said, “for I have had a very hard time of it lately and I have not been so well as I would like to be.”1 However tempting, I will lean on Canada not for restoration but for a nautical analogy to describe how we can address the challenges we now face.

Internationally he has inspired countless policymakers, myself included. On behalf of all colleagues past and present, I would like to echo the Chancellor by thanking Charlie for his exceptional period of public service and the enormous contribution he has made to the economic well-being of this country. Macroeconomic balance The UK economy is currently unbalanced internally and externally. Internally, there is wasteful spare capacity – an output gap – concentrated in the labour market. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) currently estimates this gap to be around 1–1½% of GDP, though we caution against false precision as there are wide confidence bands around this central view. The MPC’s current guidance makes clear that we will set monetary policy to meet the inflation target while using up that spare capacity. This has implications for the timing, pace and degree of Bank Rate increases. There’s already great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike and this decision is becoming more balanced. It could happen sooner than markets currently expect. 1  As reported in the Montreal Gazette, August 17, 1931. The Financial Times of the same day reported Norman as saying “I feel I want a bit of a rest, because I have had a very hard time lately. I haven’t been quite as well as I would like, and I think the trip will do me good”. 2  Bank staff project annualised growth of 4% for the current quarter. That incorporates expected upward revisions to early official estimates.
At the very top end of the market, there are now over a hundred Michelin starred restaurants compared with less than thirty in my youth. The past decade has seen a huge investment in both hotels and visitor attractions. Three of the top five fee paying visitor attractions in the UK are less than five years old, with the wonderful London Eye now comfortably outstripping that doughty old trouper, the Tower of London. London doesn’t have it all its own way of course - the ground breaking Eden Project now comes in at a well deserved number three. Tourism has become more than good business. From the Welsh Valleys to the East end of London, it is increasingly seen as a catalyst for economic regeneration. With the success of the Manchester Commonwealth games, and Liverpool’s ambitious plans for 2008 as European City of Culture, not to mention London’s Olympic bid, there’s no shortage of high profile events and projects to provide inspiration for the future. Your industry is still a major employer, of course. You must provide more jobs than the NHS and the Armed Forces put together. I’d be the last person to underrate the importance of entry level and seasonal jobs; but you need highly skilled people too. So it’s good news that thousands of people are already on tourism and hospitality related FE and work based courses. Your new Sector Skills Council will provide an even sharper focus on defining and meeting your industry’s training needs.

Conclusions Global growth has been very strong in the last few years and global financial conditions have been very favorable for emerging markets. This prosperous period has been used in some countries to improve public finances, while certain countries have not made much of a progress. If some of the risks mentioned today materialize, global growth and global risk appetite may decline and many emerging markets will find it harder to maintain a high growth rate. It is therefore of utmost importance  15  Convergence Programme. 2005 Update, January 2006. 16  Council Opinion of 14 March 2006 on the updated convergence programme of Poland, 2005-2008 (2006/C 82/12). 4  BIS Review 61/2006  that necessary reforms are introduced as early as possible to get ready for a possible global headwind. Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 61/2006  5
Yves Mersch: Swedbank Economic Outlook Seminar Speech by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Swedbank Economic Outlook Seminar, Stockholm, 18 May 2015. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, There is an old saying that “with money, Latin and a good horse, you can get through all Europe”. These days a good command of Latin does not help you much outside of the Vatican City. Most of us prefer to travel by plane or train. But at least in the 19 countries of the euro area, the money a citizen holds in his or her pocket crosses all national borders. This only remains the case, however, if that money keeps its value – which is our responsibility at the ECB. So I would like this morning to talk about the measures we have taken to meet that responsibility over the last year, and to give you my view on how we should address the risks they can entail. Responding to low inflation From December 2011 onwards inflation in the euro area began a sustained downward drift, reaching its trough in January 2015. Responding to this situation would be challenging for monetary policy in any circumstances, but was made especially difficult because nominal interest rates were already very low. In this context we have taken what, at face value, may appear to be a series of very unconventional measures – negative deposit rates, ABS purchases, sovereign bond purchases, to name but a few.

My hope is that governments are recognising that accommodative monetary policy and low oil prices, rather than removing the need for reforms, creates the perfect environment to do them. Research suggests that reforms can be more costly in a weak macroeconomic environment and, in particular, when there are serious credit constraints. With our successful credit easing policy we are progressively removing each of those barriers. More generally, however, I would question how much monetary policy decisions should be based around reform incentives. Applying again the Tinbergen rule, this creates two objectives to be attained with one instrument – and just as for financial stability, in the current environment those objectives conflict. The ECB has to prioritise price stability rather than acting as the censor of governments. Euro area governments as a community must ensure that each economy meets the requirements of membership. And it is in this context that I and other ECB Executive Board members have recently called for a stronger Economic Union in the euro area with improved common governance of structural reforms. Conclusion Let me conclude. The diminishing price pressures over recent years have required the ECB to act forcefully and repeatedly to fulfil its mandate. This culminated in January 2015 with our decision to expand our asset purchase programme to stave off deflationary risks and stop the fall of inflation expectations. In doing so we have sent a strong signal that we will safeguard price stability no matter what. This is our mandate as enshrined in the Treaty.
Fatos Ibrahimi: The reduction of cash in the context of reducing the informal economy Speech by Mr Fatos Ibrahimi, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the Conference “Reducing the informal economy – a challenge of the Albanian Government”, Tirana, 16 October 2006. *  *  *  Since the inception of the programme undertaken by the Bank of Albania, in cooperation with the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Finance, on reducing cash, it came clear that the issue of cash in economy cannot be treated as separate from the issue of the informal economy. The companies, which try not to expose their activities to the third parties, will avoid banks and will find alternative sources of financing and payment, mainly in cash. Therefore, the Government initiative on reducing the informal economy is to be welcomed when bearing in mind the great impact it will have on reducing the cash economy. It needs to be said that the process of formalizing the economy has not been considered as an excuse for not undertaking a number of measures and initiatives, which may accelerate the progress of cash reduction. Among the actions undertaken in this context, I would mention:  1. The channelling of the state administration payrolls through the bank accounts  At this moment, the entire public administration payrolls are channelled through the accounts with the commercial banks.

For 2019, we now expect inflation of  Page 1/4  Berne, 15 June 2017 Thomas Jordan  News conference  1.0%, compared to 1.1% last quarter. The conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the three-month Libor remains at –0.75% over the entire forecast horizon. Global economic outlook  I would now like to turn to economic developments abroad, as these have a considerable bearing on the inflation and economic outlook in Switzerland. In line with our expectations, the global economy has strengthened further in recent months. Global GDP growth in the first quarter was more robust than in previous quarters. This is due in large part to an encouraging upturn in emerging economies. In the euro area, too, economic recovery has gained strength. Owing to the stronger economic growth, the labour market situation in advanced economies has improved further; with full employment now almost reached in the US, Japan, the UK and Germany. Across the euro area, unemployment has declined again. Despite these positive developments in the real economy, inflation remains modest in most advanced economies. Against this background, monetary policy in Japan and the euro area in particular is likely to remain very expansionary. In the US, monetary conditions are expected to gradually normalise. In our new baseline scenario for the global economy, we anticipate that economic developments will remain favourable. For 2017, economic growth looks set to be its strongest in six years.
Although controversial at the time, these rate hikes have proven their value in containing inflation without derailing the economic recovery. Second, the Monetary Policy Committee’s warning – that the same would happen this year if wage increases should prove excessive – appears to have been credible, which probably would not have happened without the previous rate increases. Third, the foreign exchange market intervention policy introduced by the Bank in mid-May has proven effective. The outlook is for inflation to stay close to target this year if the króna holds relatively stable. This positive outlook is due to a number of factors: favourable inflation developments during the first two months of the year, signs that wage cost increases have been smaller in the recent term than previously thought, the fact that the recent wage settlements – which provided for pay increases consistent with the inflation target – appear to have set the tone for subsequent wage negotiations, and the fact that global inflation looks set to be somewhat lower than previously forecast. Looking beyond this year, however, inflation could rise again when the slack in the economy disappears and the effects of increased investment and the Government’s debt relief measures on domestic demand come to the fore. The impact this has on inflation will depend on how inflation and inflation expectations develop this year, and on other factors that could affect demand in the near term.

Early on, the Monetary Policy Committee had to focus on stabilising the exchange rate in order to stop the collapse of asset prices and the automatic increase in private sector debt, most of which was either exchange rate-linked or indexed to the CPI. The scope to cut interest rates in order to stimulate demand was therefore limited, although it began to develop over the course of 2009. The capital controls that were introduced in late 2008 provided some room for manoeuvre and enabled the Central Bank to allow real interest rates to fall faster than would otherwise have been possible. Inflation, which had skyrocketed after the currency collapsed, began to subside gradually, but the inflation spike caused by contractual wage increases and excessively high inflation expectations cut into that room for manoeuvre from mid-2011 onwards. In order to understand the economic recovery in the face of these headwinds, two points are important. The first point centres on the nature of the recession. To some extent, the recession represented the inevitable adjustment of domestic demand to the fact that it was no longer possible to fund the country’s massive current account deficit and to the abrupt contraction of two sectors – financial services and construction – that had grown exponentially during the upswing. When the dust settled, the domestic economy still rested on other sturdy foundations, and the low real exchange rate stimulated some of Iceland’s tradable sectors.
I am sure the panellists later will discuss these further when they talk about the future of banking. Let me turn to this forum’s theme question on whether we will witness an evolution or revolution in banking. I believe it will be both. A lot of attention and excitement have been created by services going digital. This digitisation of services have transformed the customer experience say for on-boarding or transactional purposes; but frankly, are not ground-breaking in themselves. As one commentary noted, this is no different from reading an actual newspaper or reading the news online. But a revolution is also happening when new digital services or business models emerge that employ say, artificial intelligence (AI) or blockchain technologies. These can fundamentally change how we borrow, save, pay, invest or insure. As an example, there is a UK bank BABB that leverages totally on blockchain and biometrics to provide peer-topeer financial services with the slogan of “everyone is a bank”. Time will determine the winners and losers as this cycle of technology disruption takes it course. Open banking Open Banking broadly captures the concept that a consumer owns information about himself, and should be able to share that information with any third party if he chooses, for example through APIs, and to transfer his money to any third party seamlessly. The effect is to give consumers ownership over their financial data, to make that data portable, and therefore enables switching and choice among financial service providers. This should promote competition to improve pricing and service quality.

2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Lastly, I would like to underline that the Bank of Albania will make maximum efforts for the cooperation in the framework of this agreement to be concrete and have a direct impact. Concluding, on behalf of the Bank of Albania, allow me to thank once again the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey for the continuous fruitful cooperation; I would also like to thank, in particular, Governor Çetinkaya, who has honoured us today with his presence at the ceremony of signing the Common Memorandum. Thank You! 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
This is critical to ensure the benefits of regional integration are experienced by all in the region. Conclusion While the future for ASEAN looks promising, ASEAN businesses, including SMEs, need to consider and explore an ASEAN strategy and to view ASEAN as an increasingly integrated market. Having such regional or international perspectives may prove to be a game changer for SMEs, paving a path towards sustained growth, increased job creation, and higher innovation capacity. A crucial element in the ASEAN economic agenda is the development of the SME sector which will contribute to stronger and more equitable growth in the region. The next frontier for SMEs is to emerge as regional players that are not constrained by the domestic consumer base. SMEs possess the potential to participate in global production networks by riding on ASEAN’s intrinsic strengths and prospects, multiple SME-focused policy initiatives as well as the continued wave of regional financial integration. This will allow for the transition for SMEs to benefit immensely from the ongoing regional economic and financial integration and thus contribute towards a balanced and sustainable growth of our region. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Ladies and Gentlemen, another important safeguard relates to the requirement for financial institutions to have in place certain board committees such as the Audit, Risk Management and Loans Review Committees. This is intended to ensure independence, transparency and accountability to board oversight over management actions. All companies should strive to ensure that such safeguards are put in place for the effective oversight of management. Finally, allow me to congratulate the Institute of Directors for continually trying to improve professionalism and ethics in our corporate entities. This is commendable. I also wish to acknowledge the mutual cooperation that has always existed between the Bank of Zambia and the Institute of Directors. You will recall that the Institute of Directors conducted a number of seminars on core principles of corporate governance under the first phase of the Financial Sector Development Plan (FSDP). Similarly, it is our expectation that we will continue to work together under the second phase of the FSDP in the area of developing and introducing an ethics and corporate governance code for the financial sector. I Thank You For Your Attention  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
What the central banks of the world can do in this situation is to continue to pursue their policy consistently to avoid contributing to greater uncertainty and increasing pessimism. If participants in the financial markets of a few years ago could be said to show a strong willingness to take risks and perhaps a sometimes exaggerated optimism, there are today tendencies in the opposite direction, particularly if one looks at the headlines in the media or listens to market participants. The central banks can balance this by maintaining credibility in price stability and by safeguarding the functioning of the payment system. The Riksbank strives to conduct a clear, credible monetary policy that is generally accepted by both the Swedish people and participants in the financial markets. We have therefore specified an explicit target for the annual inflation rate and explained that we normally try to keep to a simple rule-of-thumb; if the forecasts of inflation one to two years ahead exceed the inflation target we raise the interest rate and vice versa if the forecasts show inflation below target level. This clear intellectual framework makes it easier to influence expectations in society of monetary policy and to evaluate the policy afterwards. Both we ourselves and external analysts can take a stand on whether the policy appears sensible, whether the forecasts we make are reasonable, and whether we follow the principles we have declared that we follow.

139 of the 199 authorized institutions in Hong Kong are either branches or subsidiaries of banking groups incorporated outside of the territory. An important function of the new service is to enable financial institutions to make use of securities held in one of the partner systems as collateral to conduct secured borrowing in the Hong Kong dollar or renminbi in Hong Kong. As an example, a bank in Europe can make use of its securities held with Euroclear Bank or J.P. Morgan to borrow Hong Kong dollar to meet the liquidity needs of its Hong Kong subsidiary. The enhanced capability of authorized institutions to manage the liquidity needs in the local currency, no doubt, will help to maintain financial stability in Hong Kong. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The facility will also substantially strengthen Hong Kong’s role as the global hub for offshore renminbi business. Being the first mover in developing offshore renminbi business, Hong Kong has the largest offshore renminbi liquidity pool, amounting to RMB 674 billion at the end of April 2012, and has developed a vibrant CNH market and the largest offshore RMB bond market. More foreign banks are either choosing to have a base in Hong Kong or are using RMB correspondent banking services provided by banks in Hong Kong. As at the end of May 2012, there were 196 banks participating in Hong Kong’s renminbi clearing platform. Of these, 170 are foreign-owned or located overseas.