The strain caused by developments in recent years appears to be comparatively limited. When inventions with a broad potential for application are introduced, it generally takes a long time before we learn the best way to use them. We tend to be fixed on the current system solutions and find it difficult to see new opportunities. The sobering process that has occurred since the exorbitant expectations at the end of the 1990s with regard to telecommunications and IT therefore does not rule out the possibility that this technology will stimulate future productivity growth. Following the electricity euphoria at the beginning of the 20th century, various applications gradually changed everyday life for industry and households. Sweden was not fully electric until a few decades later. Essentially, therefore, I am optimistic with regard to what future applications in telecommunications and IT can achieve for economic growth. The financial sector - the lubricant of the economy The financial sector has played a very central role in the development of the economy over the past 150 years. It still does, although the general public is sometimes critical of the financial sector - often without considering the services the sector has to offer and how daily life would look without this sector. The fundamental functions of the financial sector - financing, risk management and intermediation of payments - are indispensable to society. Financing entails bringing together the different wishes of savers and investors. Savers want their money to be available directly, while investors often require long-term loans.

Given the monetary policy pursued, inflation will return to the target at the end of 2021 and stay close to 4% further on. I will now speak on possible risks to the forecast. Disinflationary risks do not prevail any longer in 2021. Moreover, this is generally a balance between proinflationary and disinflationary risks over the forecast horizon. Proinflationary risks include, first and foremost, a possible rise in prices in global commodity markets. Second, the epidemic situation remains one of the least predictable factors. Its potential worsening will be the reason why companies’ costs will stay high, with goods transportation problems and production chain disruptions persisting. Third, inflation expectations may remain elevated for a long period of time. Fourth, it is worth emphasising that economic rebound may be uneven and involve local price spikes in individual segments. For instance, as restrictions are lifted in the service sector hardest hit by the pandemic, an increase in demand amid an insufficient rise in supply may become a temporary proinflationary factor. The scale and duration of its impact will depend on a new balance between demand and supply, households’ behaviour, changes in consumer preferences, and the pace of the cancellation of restrictions on foreign travels. Fifth, we still take into account persistent geopolitical risks as they may affect yield trends and inflation and exchange rate expectations. The second group of risks include disinflationary factors. First of all, the fiscal policy normalisation may have a more significant influence on final demand and, accordingly, price movements.