samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A new Client Advisor Competency Standards (CACS) assessment for the Private Banking industry is also slated to be introduced in September this year. These two examinations will allow Relationship Managers – those dealing with either corporate clients or high net-worth individuals – to be independently tested on their product knowledge. We also want to raise the competency levels of professionals dealing with the broader retail investor base. IBF will roll out in the third quarter of this year, new Modules under the MASregulated Capital Markets and Financial Advisory Services (CMFAS) Examination. These  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  new modules aim at raising the minimum competency standards for CMFAS representatives who wish to sell “structured products”. Despite these efforts, talent remains scarce in the industry. Bankers I speak to express concern about the sufficiency of skilled talent to sustain the growth of the financial industry. PwC’s 2011 Global CEO Survey conducted among 1,200 business leaders world-wide revealed that talent issues are topmost of CEO concerns. Every good CEO knows that it is not just business strategies, processes and technologies which drive new revenue streams. It is people with strong competencies and professional integrity, dedicated to serving the customer, who make the critical difference. Financial institutions must put in place policies and practices to ensure that their staff are well trained before they are allowed to deal with clients. Singapore’s financial sector headcount is expected to grow by 5 to 6 per cent this year.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Enhancing the soundness of the banking sector The New Capital Accord Keynote address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Risk Management Seminar on the New Capital Accord (Basel II), Kuala Lumpur, 15 April 2004. *  *  *  Distinguished guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is my pleasure to welcome you to the Risk Management seminar on Basel II organized for the directors and senior management of banking institutions. The objective of this seminar is to promote greater understanding of the impending changes to the international capital adequacy regulation. Given the importance of the subject and its implications on the banking industry, it is important for the industry to understand the intentions and the challenges arising from these changes so that the necessary action may be taken in a manner in which the benefits to be derived from it can be maximised. While there has been global acceptance of the broad principles of the new accord, differing implementation approaches are being adopted by different countries. I will take the opportunity to discuss the new Accord from our perspective and the approach that will be adopted for Malaysia. This seminar will provide you with the opportunity to engage in discussions on the issues concerning the new Accord. Philosophy and objective of capital regulation A well functioning and efficient banking sector is vital to the economic growth process. The banking institutions perform the important intermediation function of mobilizing funds to finance productive activities.
If the central bank is successful in pursuing, over a number of years, a constant rate of inflation, then unemployment BIS Review 103/1998  –9–  cannot remain above the natural rate indefinitely. Not only can central banks not bring unemployment down below the natural rate for long, neither can they be accused of keeping unemployment persistently above the natural rate. Monetary policy cannot influence levels of employment in the long run. There should be no surprise about this. A central bank can use its chosen instrument – interest rates – to hit a nominal target – such as an inflation target, or a target for the exchange rate or even the growth of nominal GDP – but it cannot use a nominal instrument to target some desired level of a real variable, such as the growth rate of output or the level of unemployment. None of the above means that monetary policy has no impact on unemployment. To the contrary, monetary policy does affect the movements of employment and unemployment over the business cycle. And the remit of the MPC makes clear how we should take this consideration into account – as I explained a year ago in a lecture at the LSE. By aiming consistently and symmetrically to hit the inflation target, the MPC should ensure that inflation is, on average over a number of years, close to the target of 22%.

Mr King explores lessons from the UK labour market Text of the Employment Policy Institute’s Fourth Annual Lecture delivered by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Mr Mervyn King, held in London on 1/12/98. It is both an honour and a challenge to deliver the fourth EPI lecture. It is an honour to follow in such distinguished footsteps, and it is a challenge to tackle the subject of the link between monetary policy and the labour market. Few subjects are as emotive. Wages, jobs and unemployment feature as frequently in the popular press as they do in academic articles. The Bank of England must learn from one in order to convey our message in the other. And we are fortunate in that labour economics is a field in which British economists have been – and continue to be – at the forefront of research. That I can say objectively because I am not myself a labour economist. So tonight I shall be exploring lessons from the labour market for the Monetary Policy Committee. The Employment Policy Institute has played an important role in bringing together those undertaking research on labour markets and those involved with policy decisions. In particular, its Employment Audit provides a valuable commentary on current developments. The labour market is unlike any other market. Indeed, for many people the very language of economists – equilibrium unemployment, market-clearing wages – seems incompatible with the human dimension of unemployment and deprivation.
Swedish firms that are dependent on exports have been hit in particular, along with their suppliers. At the same time it should be noted that Swedish households, who account for around 50 per cent of demand, have lowered their consumption. Like their counterparts in the United States, people in Sweden have reduced their expectations about future income and wealth. Infrequent purchases, such as cars and household appliances, have fallen in  4  BIS Review 72/2001  particular. Sweden has been hit by the global slowdown in technological sectors such as IT and telecom; firms are being compelled to undertake structural adjustments and close down some production capacity. But although Sweden is affected more than other countries, on account of the dominance of IT and telecom firms, compared with earlier downturns the situation still looks relatively favourable, at least so far. The important thing now is to look to the future. It is not the most recent economic figures that determine the course of events and it is not entirely clear what conclusions should be drawn with regard to developments in one to two years' time. One thing that is clear, however, is that resource utilisation this year will be slightly lower than economic analysts have been counting on. If it turns out to be true that GDP growth only reaches a figure of just under 2 per cent this year, this will nevertheless be a fairly creditable result for the Swedish economy.

In the near term, I think your experience from adjusting to the yen’s sharp appreciation should be particularly helpful to your local partners. Japanese companies are capable of lending a helping hand to your local suppliers as they try to upgrade their productive efficiency. That would help smooth their adjustment process during these rough and tumble times. Ladies and gentlemen, I hope I have contributed to your understanding of the economic conditions and outlook for Thailand. The Thai economy has shown that it is resilient to adverse shocks. I am confident that our fundamentals are strong. Public investment in basic infrastructure and the Bank of Thailand’s commitment to maintain economic and financial stability should translate into moderate long-term cost of investment financing. With the awareness of what’s in store for us and the right macroeconomic policy mix going forward, we should see the economy expand favorably and in a sustainable fashion. I need not mention how crucial it is to both Thailand and Japan in ensuring that our trade and investment partnership prosper in the years to come. Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 33/2008  5
For instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects a current account deficit in the United States of just under 3% of GDP this year, while the Chinese surplus is expected to have fallen to around 2½% of GDP. But, as with the euro area, the crucial question is how much of this narrowing is simply a reflection of the cyclical weakness in the deficit economies or whether it represents a more durable shift in the pattern of demand in both deficit and surplus economies. If it is down to the former, then the imbalances can be expected to reemerge as recovery proceeds. The answer to this question depends very much on the degree to which the substantial shortfall, relative to pre-crisis trends, of activity in the deficit economies represents a permanent impairment of supply potential as a result of the financial crisis and subsequent recession, or whether it will ultimately be reversed. Successive Inflation Reports and speeches by several MPC members 6 have addressed this issue in the context of the United Kingdom, and I think it is fair to say that the evidence is presently inconclusive.

The canonised version of the model does not allow for an understanding of how institutional strength and a track record affect credibility. Institutional strength requires central bank independence, for which, in turn, legal independence is a necessary, but by no means sufficient prerequisite. BIS Review 22/2010  1  Inflation targeting The reference model has been at the heart of inflation targeting approaches. In brief, inflation targeting can be summed up as follows: First, take inflation and output gap forecasts as summary statistics of the state of the economy. Second, ignore a host of variables, particularly money and credit. Assume that these adjust to the state of the economy, but do not influence it independently. Third, fine-tune the policy instrument so that inflation forecasts – whatever the nature of the shocks that might have caused them – are stabilised, and output volatility is minimised, at a pre-set horizon. It has long been known that it is misleading to limit the information set to output gap and inflation forecasts. Output gaps are ill-defined and cannot be accurately measured. Furthermore, inflation forecasts are not summary statistics of the state of the economy. Different underlying shocks – even though they might lead to the same inflation forecast – can have vastly different implications for policy. Risk management It has frequently been argued that central banks should act as risk managers by organising their framework around events with a high deflationary impact.
This cycle typically starts with a fundamentally positive development, such as new markets or a new technology of broad application. The ensuing period of prosperity and macroeconomic stability leads borrowers and lenders to make increasingly optimistic assumptions about the future such as “house prices can only go up” or “financial innovation has reduced risk.” Debt and asset prices build, reinforcing each other for a time. The resulting vulnerabilities are only exposed when economic conditions turn. When they do, lenders hastily revise their expectations for the future – the “Minksy moment” – and pull back on lending. Borrowers reduce spending, or in extremis, default. These responses make the economic downturn much deeper and more prolonged. Structural risks are systemic risks that do not vary with the cycle. They generally relate to interconnections and concentrations within the financial system but can also arise from the structure of financial contracts or regulations. For example, if financial institutions have a web of exposures to each other, an issue at one institution can set off a chain-reaction through the system. Or if several firms are exposed to the same market, problems in that market can be amplified because of how these firms react. Risks will also be higher if structurally weak investment vehicles, prone to fire sale their assets, play a meaningful role in important markets. And structurally deficient market infrastructure increases the complexity and opaqueness of markets, making risks harder to identify.

And then, when the European chapter of our story is completed and the denar remains our historical symbol of stability, I believe that it will be confirmed once again that as a central bank we have walked down the right path. Since the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis and the experiences of the COVID crisis, in a time of accelerated changes on the world stage as a result of globalization, digitalization and financial innovation, the mandate of central banks has been constantly changing and expanding with new functions. All current and new functions and activities  3/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  of modern central banks that protect the public interest are already part of our vision, but not as an activity that we forecast for the time future and distant, but as something we are already working on. Among other things, we are particularly dedicated to financial education and inclusion given the importance of increasing knowledge about financial services, especially at a time of rapid fintech development, which would eventually provide easier access to finance for citizens and companies. In support of the fintech development, we drafted the first version of the national strategy, with a view of making our story a regional leader in this area as well. Following the example of the European Central Bank, this year, when we celebrate thirty years of the introduction of the denar as our currency, we initiated activities to consider the introduction of a digital denar.
First, the efficiency of a credit institution introduces an additional condition; the issue is not only to maximise output by minimising costs, but also not to alter the institution’s risk profile. Here, then we have three elements output, costs and risk. This idea factors in significant constraints and makes it necessary to focus on improved efficiency as a balanced process in which attention must be paid to a series of management elements that cannot be run down in cost-cutting drives. For example, no clear efficiency gain is achieved if it is done at the expense of increasing operational risk. Second, in the financial sector efficiency can be analysed from a dual perspective: from that of the system as a whole, a macro perspective, and from that of the individual institutions, a micro perspective. The financial system and intermediation I shall refer firstly to the financial system as a whole, which enables saving to be channelled from agents wishing to lend funds, because they have a surplus of them, to others who wish to borrow funds, since they are lacking financing. Adding to this important function performed by the financial system is that of allowing the transmission of risks to those who have a greater wish or capacity to assume it. This is especially important in an environment of uncertainty. An efficient financial system will enable a greater volume of funds to be channeled towards productive investment and therefore will help to boost economic growth and to achieve greater levels of well-being.

In fact, investment in technology, in which process savings banks have played a notable part, is an additional and important mechanism for attaining greater efficiency. This is because technological development allows processes to be undertaken more easily, simultaneously eliminating certain timeand labour-intensive tasks so that operating cost cuts are achieved. In addition the capacity to process massive amounts of data efficiently in real time allows for better risk management and also for services better tailored to client needs. In line with the foregoing, appropriate human resources management will also be conducive to achieving greater efficiency. The importance of the role of human capital is beyond all doubt, and all the more so in the sector we are discussing today. BIS Review 31/2003  3  Business risk In terms of not changing the risk profile while trying to gain efficiency, business and operational risks deserve some attention. I have signalled before some of the specific features associated with savings banks. Ensuring the objective of efficiency also involves moderation to some extent in those activities and risks furthest removed from their nature and character. A latent danger arising when cutting costs to improve efficiency, is an increase in the level of operational risk. As I mentioned, efficiency improvements may only be understood as such when the risk profile remains unchanged. As you know, operational risk is increasingly under the scrutiny not only of supervisors but also of institutions.
so that no one expected a change in rate and this was what actually happened) then the statement that surprises are bigger in Inflation Report months is no different from the statement that rates are only expected to change in these months. The closer the distribution comes to being degenerate, the more weight should be attached to that interpretation. But both the average surprise and its variance are significant. BIS Review 17/2005  7  On closer inspection, this finding seems to relate to the decision in Inflation Report months – not the publication of the Report itself a week later, or the minutes the week after that (Panel E shows that the market reaction to the policy decision is, on average, significantly bigger than the reaction to the Report and the minutes). This might imply that it is the rethink during the preparation of the Inflation Report that counts. But, once announced, the decision itself (and the accompanying press notice, if rates have changed) provides most of the information the market needs to understand the Committee’s approach. This would be consistent with a fairly high degree of policy predictability. It is worth emphasising that the observed tendency for interest rate changes to coincide with the publication of an Inflation Report does not imply that interest rate changes are tied in any mechanical way to the central projection for inflation. The assessment of risks is always a material factor in determining policy, as well as an important aspect of the presentation of the forecast.

The fact that the new model makes them explicit can be intellectually helpful. But it doesn’t make it any easier to provide answers to questions about expectations and credibility. What if some agents base their decisions on simple rules of thumb? BEQM has features that allow us to accommodate such questions when we are forecasting – but in a more ad-hoc way that requires a substantial degree of judgement. We are still learning how to exploit all BEQM’s possibilities. But it clearly represents a move towards the ‘Pagan frontier’, offering a higher degree of theoretical coherence without losing empirical performance. A number of other central banks are working on similar models – the ECB, Bank of Canada, FRB, Norges Bank and Bank of Finland – as well as the IMF. The international modelling community is an exemplary forum for the exchange of ideas and experiences, and we have learnt – and will continue to learn – a lot from the experience of others. No model can do everything. All models oversimplify drastically. The trick is to identify an appropriate degree of simplification for the task in hand. So the Committee has never been prepared to rely on one model. This has led to attempts to develop a suite of models. 4  Harrison, R, Nikolov, K, Quinn, M, Ramsay, G, Scott, A and Thomas, R (2005) The Bank of England Quarterly Model. 5  For a description of the previous model, see Economic Models at the Bank of England (1999).
Percent 70  2)  70  60  60  50  50  40  40  30  30  20 1968  20 1974  1980  1986  1992  1998  2004  2010  2016  1) Trade is defined as the sum of exports and imports of goods and services. 2) Projections for 2017 and 2018. Sources: IMF, World Bank and Norges Bank  Global trade has generated substantial welfare gains. As consumers, we have gained access to cheaper and better products. More importantly, over one billion people have been lifted out of poverty.3 Many people would be negatively affected if the tendency is reversed towards higher trade barriers. 3 http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview. 3  For a long time, trade primarily consisted of finished goods. In recent decades, global value chains have grown rapidly. Lower transport costs and new technological solutions have fostered new ways of organising production and trade. Firms have ready access to information about contractors in other countries. Today, it is also possible to manage production processes in distant locations. This has made it easier to locate high-tech production in low-cost countries. Norges Bank Economic perspectives 15 february 2018  Society is being transformed by advances in information and communication technology. The capacity of computer devices has increased while their size has become smaller and smaller. Moving a 5 megabyte hard disk used to require substantial muscle. Today, a several hundred thousand megabyte memory stick is easily lost among pocket change.

Unemployment has fallen back, in Europe too. In parallel with this, longer-term structural developments have changed the economic landscape. A more closely integrated world economy and technological changes are transforming aspects of everyday life and also have consequences for economic policy. Trade and technology Trade and technology have been key driving forces of growth in Norway over the past two hundred years. Oil and gas resources have provided a substantial boost to our income level, but even more important is the efficient use of our labour and capital. Technological advances, increased education and better capital equipment have made us more productive. Contact with other countries has helped us get more out of our common resources. Many innovations have come from abroad, where we have also found markets for our own products. Over the past fifty years, global trade has more than doubled as a share of global GDP (Chart 2). The scaling back of trade barriers has been an important driving force. Since 2011, trade has expanded at a slower pace, primarily reflecting lower growth in the world economy. Private investment in particular has lagged, but growth has also slowed because trade barriers are being reduced more slowly than earlier. 1)  Chart 2 Global trade as a share of GDP.