Allow me to use the current situation in the UK to illustrate these points. UK output is now in sight of potential, and the capital overhang looks set to be eliminated over the next few years. In order to expand, companies will increasingly need to invest. A strengthening global economy should tempt UK companies to do so, particularly since UK companies are generally competitive given the recent fall in sterling. Indeed, the broad-based global recovery is creating the possibility of a self-reinforcing revival in investment. The Bank of England estimates that more than 80% of the world economy is now growing above potential. Global measures of industrial production and capital goods orders, as well as world trade, have strengthened markedly over the past year, suggesting some rotation in the composition of global demand towards investment. With that more favourable outlook, investment intentions are now rising around the world (Chart 11). If these intentions are realised, the global equilibrium interest rate could rise somewhat, making a given policy setting more accommodative. The extent to which it does will depend on other secular factors that have been holding it down, including demographics, debt overhangs and the capital intensity of production. 10  In this generally constructive environment, the main issues facing UK companies are uncertainties – about how consumers will adjust to a period of weaker real income growth; about market access post-Brexit; about the potential risks in the transition to new arrangements with the EU and the rest of the world.

Estimates from regression analysis by BIS show that the sensitivity of investment to investment opportunities (proxied by Tobin’s Q) is approximately three times more sensitive for physical investment than for intangible investment – a result that the BIS suggest could be explained by “the structural lumpiness of intangible investment”. In a similar vein, Ryan and Taylor (2017) also find that intangible capital responds more slowly to changes in investment opportunities. They conclude that, compared with physical capital, intangible capital’s convex adjustment costs are roughly twice as large. 9 See https://www.oecd.org/eco/growth/OECD-2015-The-future-of-productivity-book.pdf. 3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  3  Although these secular forces may likely persist, many of the conditions for a revival in business investment are now in place. II. The Contribution of Central Banks to Investment Recognising that the most important contributions will be from structural policies, how can central banks support that belated investment recovery? First, we must acknowledge that, while the cost and availability of finance matters; internal cash flows, the profit outlook and uncertainty are far more important determinants of investment. Monetary policy affects companies’ profits and cash flows through its effects on domestic demand and, via the exchange rate, external demand. Given the importance of internal finance for investment, and the high hurdle rates investment projects must clear, such indirect effects are more important for investment than the direct effects on the cost of capital. The biggest contributions of central banks are therefore improving the demand and profit outlooks and reducing uncertainty.