It is that brain-like wiring which has given rise to thinking, as well as doing, machines – the move from Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). In the words of Brynjolfsson and McAfee, we are entering a second machine age. 48 Moreover, Moore’s Law means that the processing power of the machine brain is ever-rising. That leads to the intriguing possibility that, at some point in the future, the processing power of the machine brain could exceed the human brain. Back in 1958, John von Neumann – perhaps the father of modern computing – called such an event the “singularity”. 49 There has since been considerable speculation about its likelihood. Computer processing speeds have reached around 10^16 calculations per  44  Syverson (2013). 45  McAfee and Brynjolfsson (2014). 46  For example, Chui et al (2010), Mokyr (2014). 47  Arthur (2011). 48  Brynjolfsson and McAfee (2014). 49  See Stanislaw (1958). 10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  second. 50 That still falls well short of the brain’s computational capacity. But if Moore’s Law continues, the machine brain could match the human brain within decades. 51 Were the singularity to be reached, the sky becomes the limit innovation-wise. Machine, rather than man, then becomes the mother of all invention. With exponential rises in processing power, the economy could become “super-intelligent”. And with close to zero marginal costs to expanding processing capacity, it may also become “super-efficient”. This would indeed be a fourth industrial revolution.

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