samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Going forward, these phenomena are expected to be reversed by a further adjustment of consumption and investment, under the assumption that the policies that spurred the sharp fall in national savings will not be repeated. As I will show you shortly, over the next two years today's current-account deficit will be substantially reduced. On the external front, global inflation continues to be high, although with some moderation in some countries. Inflationary pressures are mainly concentrated in the core part of inflation, which in several economies has been driven by the strength of the services sector (figure 9). As described in one of the boxes in the Report, the U.S. labor market remains tight and under high wage pressures. To varying degrees, this situation is also present in other developed economies and poses a risk to the decline in inflation in these countries. In fact, it is one of the factors behind the tighter global monetary policy outlook considered in the central scenario of this Report. Thus, the monetary policy implemented by central banks in the rest of the world has reinforced their contractionary stance. This has been particularly visible in developed economies, where monetary tightening processes began later. Both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, along with significant hikes in their benchmark rates, have signaled a more protracted tightening than was expected some time ago. In Latin America, most central banks have continued to raise their interest rates, with the exceptions of Chile and Brazil.

Hence, relevant stakeholders in the country formulate, implement, revise and re-implement economic and other policies to achieve such goals. Whatever the policy we formulate and pursue, the ultimate aim is to raise living standards of the nation. At the same time, we are all aware that it is compulsory to have higher economic growth and fair distribution of benefits of growth for achieving higher standards of living. The issue is, how can we achieve higher rates of economic growth? Theory will say savings, investments, diversification, technology, hard work, attitudes and perceptions. Yes. All these are important and they have certain importance in a country’s overall performance. However, in a highly competitive, globalized environment with a limited resource endowment all of these factors would be second to productivity. For sustained prosperity, productivity is the key. Why is the productivity so important? Economists agree that, in the long-run, productivity growth is the principal means of improving living standards. The rate of productivity growth influences the economy in important ways, even in the short run, by affecting key variables such as output growth, employment growth, and the rate of inflation. So, as a first step, let us examine the need of productivity improvements in the current global and domestic economic context and the lessons of success by emphasizing on productivity, so that we could deal with this topic in a wider perspective. In my view, our economy should focus on productivity due to two important reasons.
Although gaining a hearing for the policy of low inflation was an uphill struggle to start with, we can see that the idea enjoys growing support today. Studies show that more and more people back the Riksbank’s inflation target. The fact that the Riksbank now has an independent legal status is perhaps a sign that Swedes have come to accept the price stability regime. Results in recent years It may be interesting against this background to examine developments in the last few years. Are there any indications that the policy shift around 1990 has already had some effect? Obviously, the return to price stability is not the only change that has taken place. Economic policy has changed in other respects too. For example, budgetary policy has been tightened up, public expenditure has been cut and deregulation and other structural reforms have been implemented. One way to understand the impact of the policy shift is to compare developments in recent years with the preceding 20-year period with a high-inflation regime. Naturally, all such comparisons must be made with great caution, since the outcome depends very much on which periods you take as your starting-point. The argument for low, stable inflation is that it ensures a better environment for investment, improved productivity, economic growth and increases in real wages and, in the long run, higher employment too.

The Spring Budget Bill noted that in many households it is still not profitable for unemployed persons to seek a job or for those in employment to work longer hours because of the way the tax and benefit systems are designed. These marginal effects have, moreover, increased since 1991. The system of wage agreements also has a bearing on the possibility of combining price stability and satisfactory employment growth. The fact that several agreements concluded at the national level do not include any individual pay adjustment guarantees, or very low ones, should increase the possibility of determining wages locally and gearing them to productivity development in various sectors. The cross-sector agreements that have been concluded, including the Industry Agreement between about 20 labour market organisations, include rules that reduce the risk of periods without valid pay agreements and the risk of conflicts. This is also a change which should help to improve wage formation. Let me conclude with a classic quotation from a previous president of the US Federal Reserve, William McChesney Martin. He is supposed to have said that the role of the central bank was to “take away the punch bowl just when the party gets going”. That is one way of putting it. The central bank is always on its guard, always ready to pounce! But look at the story from another angle. It is in the guests’ own interests not to let things get out of hand.
We believe that citizens and businesses can only benefit fully from the fundamental principles of the free movement of goods, services, capital and people if they are also able to transfer money as rapidly, reliably and cheaply from one part of the European Union to another, as is now the case within each Member State. Despite the introduction of the euro, however, there is still a clear gap between the service levels of domestic and cross-border retail payment systems in terms of quality, efficiency and pricing. The substantial disparities between domestic and cross-border services ought now to be reduced, and should ultimately disappear. In order to encourage the development of cross-border payment systems enabling the public to benefit more fully from the single currency, the Eurosystem has drawn up a set of objectives for cross-border retail payments in the euro area. These will be detailed in a separate press release which will be issued in the coming days. The Eurosystem calls on the banking and payment service industry to fulfil these objectives by 1 January 2002 at the latest. Finally, I would like to inform you that we also discussed issues related to fraud prevention. I would like to emphasise that the ECB shares the concerns of the European Parliament, the EU Council and the Commission about the protection of the Communities’ financial interests against fraud and other detrimental activities.

In addition, we will use an efficient communication infrastructure between the ECB and the national central banks to monitor developments over the Year 2000 transition period. The ECB will also share information with the Joint Year 2000 Council and will thereby extend its monitoring capabilities beyond the Eurosystem to a global perspective. As far as our monetary policy framework is concerned, we are convinced that it is flexible enough and has built-in mechanisms designed to deal with any level of liquidity demand that might arise in the euro markets. Indeed, should any adaptation be advisable, this would be of limited importance and consistent with the overall set-up. We have analysed different scenarios and have come to the conclusion that the Eurosystem will be in a position to cope with any potential increase in the demand for liquidity. The stock of banknotes held by national central banks is sufficient to allow for a considerable additional demand for banknotes in circulation and the amount of collateral available in the Eurosystem will be sufficient to allow for the corresponding increase in refinancing needs of the banking system. We are therefore confident that the Eurosystem will continue its operations smoothly on 3 January 2000 after the Century Date Change. We also reviewed cross-border retail payment services which are essential for the smooth functioning of the Single Market.
Durant ces dix dernières années, les communiqués du G7 qui délivraient un message commun relatif aux taux de change ont toujours fait l’objet de la plus grande attention de la part des investisseurs et des marchés, et se sont révélés efficaces. Il s’agit là d’un atout inestimable que nous devons préserver avec le plus grand soin. *  *  * En conclusion permettez-moi de souligner trois points :  9  BIS Review 22/1999  D’abord, en ce qui concerne la Banque centrale européenne et le Système européen de banques centrales, j’aimerais proposer une métaphore qui pourrait éclairer mon propos. Il y a une équipe monétaire européenne composée de douze joueurs, la BCE et les 11 banques centrales nationales. C’est toute l’équipe monétaire des douze qui joue sur le terrain, avec un seul “ esprit d’équipe ”, qui constitue un des atouts inestimables de l’Europe. Deuxièmement, le GVII de samedi à Bonn nous a permis de faire de nouveaux progrès dans le renforcement de ce que l’on est convenu d’appeler l’architecture financière internationale. On a parfois un peu trop tendance, à mon avis, à insister sur les différences de sensibilité qui se manifestent ici et là. Ce qui est beaucoup plus important, c’est que la communauté internationale est en accord profond sur de très nombreux points.

William C Dudley: Impact of the Great Recession on public schools in the region Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City, 27 January 2012. *  *  *  Good morning and welcome once again to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing. I am pleased to have this opportunity to talk with the journalists covering our region – and through you, to the people in our District. This morning I will focus on regional economic conditions, with particular attention to how the recession has affected public school spending in New York and New Jersey – states that dominate the Second Federal Reserve District. Following my remarks, my colleagues will provide more details. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System. National economic conditions I will begin with a review of overall economic conditions. Recent data suggest that the U.S. economy ended 2011 on a somewhat stronger note – the best performance since the first half of 2010. Nonetheless, the amount of slack in the economy remains substantial. Moreover, I think it is unlikely that the pace of growth we saw in the fourth quarter will carry through to the first half of 2012. Growth of consumer spending strengthened in the fourth quarter, adding a needed boost to the economy.
This initiative has seen two six-month extensions and, more importantly, it has been complemented by the introduction of a “common framework” for restructuring the sovereign debt of countries with deep-seated debt problems. Despite the limited quantitative results of the DSSI and the uncertainty surrounding the level of success of the “common framework” for debt restructuring, both initiatives represent an unquestionable improvement on the part of multilateral coordination in sovereign debt resolution. Third, the main multilateral development banks (such as the World Bank, the European 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Investment Bank and the African Development Bank, among others) are also playing an important role in this crisis. Throughout the pandemic, these institutions have deployed a series of emergency measures in line with their mandates and spheres of influence. For instance, their fresh financial support to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region since the outset of the pandemic amounts to over USD 8 billion, adding to the USD 4.3 billion of IMF emergency financing and USD 7.2 billion of IMF financing provided through regular programmes. Finally, the recent G7 agreement to back a new global minimum tax rate for multinational companies is a step in the right direction to address the tax challenges arising from globalisation and the increasing digitalisation of economies. Undoubtedly, major steps have been taken in this crisis to strengthen international cooperation, but much ground has still to be covered.

Pablo Hernández de Cos: Central banks at the frontline of the COVID-19 crisis - weathering the storm, spurring the recovery Welcome address and introductory remarks by Mr Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, at session 1 of the VI Conference of Mediterranean Central Banks, jointly organised by the Central Bank of Tunisia, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and the Bank of Spain, 28 June 2021. * * * It is a great pleasure for me to welcome you all to this Conference on Central banks at the frontline of the COVID-19 crisis: weathering the storm, spurring the recovery, jointly organised by the Central Bank of Tunisia, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and the Banco de España. Let me start by thanking our colleagues from the Central Bank of Tunisia, the OECD and the IEMed and, in particular, Governor El Abassi, Ambassador Florensa and Luiz de Mello for their cooperation in organising this Conference. We could not have asked for better partners to help set up this event. Under the resolute impulse of the IEMed, this Conference is becoming a mainstay among the fora for dialogue and cooperation in economic and financial relationships in the Euro-Mediterranean region.
In time, however, the pace of developments in computerisation and telecommunications will probably also have a major impact on production and distribution systems in Sweden. Sweden is well to the fore in the use of the Internet. Still, it is not yet clear when these developments will exert a more general effect on growth. A point worth noting is that the upward shift in US productivity growth occurred fairly late in the business cycle. The Swedish economy has not reached that stage. Over a normal cycle, without any impulses from an improvement in potential growth, statistics show that productivity gains tend to slacken towards the end of the upward phase. That was the case in Sweden, for example, in the late 1980s. Now that low inflation has been established, it is conceivable that the Swedish economy functions differently, so that productivity growth might also be better here in the coming years. The example of the United Kingdom, however, suggests otherwise. Activity there has been relatively stronger than in most other European countries but clear signs of better productivity growth are still not discernible. If there is no direct evidence that it is appreciably higher productivity that lies behind the decreased inflation propensity in Sweden in the 1990’s, where should we look for an explanation? I want to discuss two possibilities: the inflation process as such and the level of unutilised resources. At the same time I shall consider their significance for future inflation. Has the inflation process changed?

The matching of job applicants and vacancies is still proceeding relatively smoothly and the wage statistics to date this year show increases that are a little lower, if anything, than expected. This may imply some respite for monetary policy. Conclusion Tomorrow the Riksbank’s Executive Board will be meeting to make three decisions. The first concerns the adoption of this year’s third Inflation Report. Then we are to agree on what I shall say to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance on Wednesday when I present the Board’s appraisal of monetary policy. Last but not least we will discuss the significance of the inflation analysis for the future repo rate. Our third decision is whether to raise the repo rate or still leave it unchanged for the time being. Today I have discussed some issues that I am sure will also be raised at the Board’s meeting tomorrow. It will be a matter, as always, of composing an overall picture out of all the indicators of inflationary pressure that the Riksbank studies. With the new Executive Board, this also involves combining how six individuals view this picture so that we arrive at a joint monetary policy decision. But I will not anticipate the outcome of those discussions and compositions – that is something that will have to wait until Wednesday. 5  BIS Review 106/1999
Table 1 Domestic scenario (annual change, percent)  2018  2019 (f) Dec.18 Report  GDP Mining GDP Non-mining GDP Domestic demand Domestic demand (w/o inventory change) Gross fixed capital formation Total consumption Goods and services exports Goods and services imports Current account (% of GDP) Gross national saving (% of GDP) Nominal gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)  4.0 5.2 3.9 4.7 3.9 4.7 3.7 5.0 7.6 -3.1 19.6 21.3  (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

For the medium term, our projections are consistent with the MPR reaching its neutral level towards the end of the policy horizon. The Board has estimated for some time that the neutral MPR is between 4% and 4.5%. This parameter that will also be revised in the June Report. V.4. Risk scenarios  The base scenario that I have just presented reflects the events most likely to occur with the information at hand at the close of this Report. There are risks, however, that, if materialized, may reshape the macroeconomic outlook and the course of monetary policy. On the external front, despite having steadily input lower growth prospects, the risk balance continues to be biased downward. The main risk remains that of an abrupt reversal of financial conditions facing emerging economies, which could be triggered by various reasons, including a more abrupt and widespread slowdown in world growth or the negative evolution of the various geopolitical tensions that have persisted in the recent past. Although in such a scenario the main central banks would probably expand their monetary policies, a lower appetite for risk and declines in commodity prices are also possible, more than offsetting these lower interest rates. At home, it is estimated that the risk balance for both activity and inflation is unbiased. First, the massive immigration of recent years may have a greater impact on growth and inflation.
Despite the ongoing revolution in online commerce, payments are often more expensive than they need be and still take too long to clear. UK card payments are convenient and they are now the most popular means of payment, but they can cost between 0.5% and 2% of the total transaction value, and it can take three days for the merchant to receive their money. The scope for improving cross border payments is bigger still. These can cost up to 10 times their domestic equivalent. Anti-money laundering checks that are rightly required can be cumbersome. Settlement is slow, with money taking up to a week to reach the recipient. During his time at the ECB, Benoît oversaw significant progress in building a pan-European payments system for the wholesale side. Nonetheless, developments in retail payments have lagged. Euro-area customers are now starting to turn to non-European cards when making non-cash payments. Last month, sensing the opportunity for another speech, Benoît announced that the ECB’s Governing Council was relaunching its retail payments strategy. The goal is to create a retail payments system that is as convenient, cost-effective, safe and secure when operating across borders as across the shop counter; and one that works as well for merchants outside the EU as it does for those within it. Delivering a better retail payments experience will require the ECB and the Bank of England to provide the best-in-class payment infrastructure that can enable private innovators to deliver the payment products and services our citizens need.

Sustainable investing must go mainstream. In short, every financial decision must take climate change into account. Achieving that requires improvements on three Rs: reporting, risk management and return.   On reporting, TCFD standards must be enhanced to be as comparable, efficient and decision-useful as possible. And we need to develop pathways to mandatory climate disclosures.   To manage risks, disclosures need to go beyond the static to the strategic. We must assess the resilience of the core of the financial system to transition risks, including through stress testing. The Bank will publish a discussion paper on our planned climate stress test tomorrow and we look forward to taking this forward internationally through the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS).   On returns, asset managers and asset owners will increasingly have to assess the transition paths of their investments and report their impact to their clients. Our citizens need to be able to see whether their investments are consistent with the path to net zero. Central banks cannot stand on the side lines of this revolution. And with Benoit’s research and Christine’s leadership, I am confident that the ECB will be at the vanguard. Conclusion 8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  8  Benoît, on behalf of everyone here tonight, I’d like to thank you for your tremendous work at the ECB and as Chair of the CPMI. The flood of acclaim you’ve received is rightly bestowed.