samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
And I’m sorry in this respect to be jumping ship at this particular point. But I’m convinced that calmer waters lie not too far ahead. And I’ve every confidence that Mervyn King - who has in effect been our Chief Navigating Officer for much of the past decade, and who will take over as skipper at the end of the month, with an outstanding MPC and Bank crew to support him - will find the way through. I certainly wish them safe passage! My Lord Mayor, if the harsh international climate made life difficult for us on the macro-economic front, the associated, sustained, fall, in global equity markets in particular, made it an unusually tough time for many financial institutions here in the City. Happily, here too, there are more recent signs of improvement. Perhaps the truly remarkable thing about that is that the financial system as a whole withstood the pressures as well as it did. But over a longer time horizon the City’s financial institutions have responded remarkably well to sustained market pressure for change, and we have been outstandingly successful in fulfilling the City’s vital economic, and social, function of promoting growth and employment both in this country and across the globe. One can think of lots of reasons for that success - I pick out two in particular. First, we have managed over time to maintain a reasonable balance between creative market dynamics on the one hand and official intervention and regulation on the other.

As a further gloss on that piece of history, I should perhaps disclose that, working to Eddie, Mervyn and the then DG , Howard Davies, I was the Bank official who “held the pen” during that work. 21  As stated in Balls, E and G. O’Donnell, 2002, Reforming Britain’s Economic and Financial Policy, “The role of the Chancellor in appointing the four outsiders was part of the delicate constitutional balance that was struck in a move towards a legitimate model of central bank independence consistent with British-style accountability to Parliament.” (page 99)  4  BIS Review 66/2007  This is what I have been leading up to: an “individualistic” committee was a necessary condition for operational independence in the UK. In terms of solving the time-consistency problem and establishing credibility, the UK system does not rely on handing monetary policy, lock, stock and barrel, to a group of “conservative central bankers”; in terms of the literature familiar to this conference, the system is as much Walsh as Rogoff. 22 The regime is based on combining an objective set by democratically elected politicians, with clear accountability mechanisms. One of those mechanisms was triggered for the first time recently when CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in March, requiring the Governor, on behalf of the Committee, to write an open letter to the Chancellor about what we thought was going on and what we planned to do to get inflation back to our target of 2%.
But Chart 6 also shows a gap opening up between expected mortgage demand and the mortgage lending we’ve actually seen since, shown in the purple line. This reflects factors including constraints on the availability of credit, and potentially an increase in uncertainty and risk aversion in the wake of the crisis. Alongside the increase in spreads immediately post-crisis, a similar pattern appears in non-price credit terms, which usually move over time in line with price terms as is shown in Chart 7. This includes the availability of higher loan to value mortgages, which can represent one of the largest credit constraints on first time buyers, particularly in high cost areas12. Access to credit was also affected from 2014 by the introduction of the FPC’s housing measures, which constrained the flow of high loan-to-income (LTI) mortgages and set the level of the stressed interest rate  12  Increased competition in the mortgage market may have played a role in this 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  10  affordability test applied to new borrowers13. These were set by the FPC to constrain the future growth of household indebtedness in aggregate and to limit the number of highly indebted households, given the evidence that high levels of household indebtedness had amplified the depth and duration of the post-GFC recession14. It is unclear what impact these regulatory constraints on credit may have played in house price formation.

Our analyses show that in the vast majority of instances the signals and complaints received at the BNB theoretically could have been resolved then and there, at the branches and divisions of your banks, as these did not need to get as far as the head offices and executive directors of the institutions. I would like to emphasize that the BNB had stated its position about the relations between commercial banks and their customers long before this became a hot topic in the media. Allow me to conclude my speech in literally the same words, which I used to speak to you here exactly 4 years ago (back then, in 2006, banking was on the upswing and nobody was talking about crises or difficulties in repaying loans): “…it is in the interest of both consumers and the banking industry to establish between the two sides of the process long-term relations based on transparency of financial services pricing, and on the strict observance of obligations by both parties.” In conclusion, allow me, on behalf of the BNB Governing Council and on my own behalf, to congratulate everyone of you on the occasion of our professional holiday, the Banker’s Day – 6 of December! I wish you a successful 2011 year and much health to your families as well as to the balance sheets of the banks you are running! Happy Banker’s Day, dear colleagues! BIS Review 169/2010  3
Governor Zhu suggested that the role and status of the SDR be enhanced, with the long term objective of creating a “super reserve” currency. However, the Triffin dilemma goes back to a period when international capital markets were poorly developed. By then, international liquidity was limited to instruments used to settle payments between official monetary authorities. It was represented by claims on such official  BIS Review 120/2010  3  entities. By contrast, in today’s world, most international liquidity is privately provided and represented by claims on private institutions. Interbank markets play a crucial role in this process. The more capital markets become integrated at the short end, the more international liquidity is provided by the private sector. As a consequence, there is a strong continuity and complementarities between domestic and international liquidity. Both depend on the willingness of counterparties to extend credit to each other. Both are subject to aggregate supply and demand shocks with sudden shifts in risk aversion or liquidity preference. Both result from leveraging and deleveraging by private institutions (Adrian and Shin, 2008). When markets seize, counterparty risk is perceived as excessive, uncertainty settles in, financial institutions deleverage their positions towards non residents, and then international liquidity dries up and disappears. When a shock occurs, public provision of liquidity has to substitute to private provision. In a domestic context, this is the function of the lender of last resort. But when the shortage is about foreign currency liquidity, this role has to be played by foreign exchange reserves.

Donald Joshua Jaganathan: Nailing down the winning strategies in bancassurance Keynote address by Mr Donald Joshua Jaganathan, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the 15th Asia Conference on Bancassurance & Alternative Distribution Channels: “Nailing Down the Winning Strategies in Bancassurance”, Kuala Lumpur, 6 May 2014. *  *  *  It gives me great pleasure to be here at the 15th Asia Conference on Bancassurance & Alternative Distribution Channels. This conference takes place at an exciting time for the insurance industry in Asia. After decades of strong growth and modernisation, Asia has achieved remarkable standards of living, with hundreds of millions lifted out of poverty and a middle-class population of over half a billion. Structural reforms following the Asian financial crisis have enabled the region to remain resilient throughout the global financial crisis of 2008/2009. Post-crisis, the vibrant economies in Asia have continued to be a pillar for global recovery, with this year’s GDP for developing Asia projected by the IMF to grow 6.7% 1. Insurance markets have also grown in tandem with the economy. Over the past decade, total premium in emerging Asia 2 increased by 10% per annum for life business and 13% per annum for non-life business on average 3 and is projected to grow 11% this year and 10% 4 in the next. The insurance industry, however, cannot be complacent and take this story for granted.
In a similar vein, economic and market participants must invest in the statistical systems and expertise required to generate the wealth of information inherent in their operations to allow for greater appreciation and understanding of their implications on the overall financial system and economy. Conclusion As we move forward, the changing contours of the global landscape will increase sharply the demand for higher quality and more comprehensive statistics from both the private and public sectors. This also needs to be accompanied by sound analysis in order to draw the implications. From the compilers of statistics, to the developers of statistical applications and the users of statistics, there will be many challenges, but also immense opportunities ahead. On this note, I wish you a productive and successful conference. By sharing your ideas, knowledge and insights in statistics, we will together contribute to drive the statistical science for a better future. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

The reasons for the modest forecast is partly that such a move is associated with costs, that the same rules apply for immigrants and domestic workers in the labour market, and last but not least that mobility is fairly low in the new member states, for cultural and housing reasons among others. A big problem in countries with very high regional unemployment, such as Poland, is that people are not even moving within the country, in spite of vacant jobs and wage differentials of over 50 per cent. Even though six months is undeniably too short a time for assessment, it has been recorded in Swedish media that not a single person from the new member states to date has applied for social welfare or other form of benefit for living in Sweden. Looking for work or applying for benefits in another EU country is both associated with more bureaucracy and rules and is more costly in terms of living and housing than what many people who have never been in that situation know. This is a problem because the labour in the new member states is needed in the old ones. The old countries in the EU have presently a highly unfavourable demographic situation, as previously broad age groups are retiring and the base of active people to support them is being reduced. In Sweden today, each person in the active population supports 0.29 people over 65; by 2030 this ratio is estimated to have risen to 0.42.
This is a complex issue, which MAS will study carefully, and discuss with the banks. Changes to existing rules can have major implications for the players, so MAS will take care to give them enough time in the implementation, to make the adjustments without disrupting the markets. BIS Review 30/2000  6  Insurance Insurance companies need to raise their standards of professionalism and proficiency. They must become more efficient and upgrade customer service. They must also become as competent as professional fund managers in managing their funds. I hope that the liberalisation of the industry will give them the competitive impetus to do so. Moving forward in a liberalised insurance market, MAS needs to promulgate a framework for capital adequacy that is risk-based and which enhances standards of corporate governance and market conduct. This will encourage innovation in the industry while at the same time guard the interests of policy holders. MAS will also work with the industry to raise disclosure standards to international best practice. We have formed a committee comprising leading industry representatives and MAS officials, to recommend changes to improve the efficiency, transparency and quality of distribution of insurance products. This will include the study of alternative distribution channels such as the internet, direct marketing and bancassurance. In developing the insurance industry, we aim to service emerging opportunities in the Asian market. We will also promote new insurance activities, such as specialised underwriting skills and Alternative Risk Transfer (ART) activities.

Lee Hsien Loong: Financial sector liberalisation - going global  Speech by Mr Lee Hsien Loong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of The Monetary Authority of Singapore and Deputy Prime Minister, at the Monetary Authority of Singapore Work Plan Seminar, held in Singapore on 3 April 2000. * 1. *  *  Introduction  Since 1997, while the Asian region was undergoing a traumatic crisis followed by a sharp recovery, the international financial scene has not stood still. Financial innovation has continued unabated, institutions are rationalising and consolidating, and transactions and services are rapidly going electronic and online. Singapore has been directly affected by these global trends. It is as well that we pressed on with our financial liberalisation programme despite the crisis. MAS and the industry have had a busy two years. It is timely now to take stock of what has been achieved, and map out the tasks ahead. Our objective has been to open up the financial sector, progressively but decisively. We have aimed to allow market forces greater free play, get investors to take full responsibility for their decisions along with the outcomes, and shift MAS’ emphasis to setting the framework and upholding standards of integrity and supervision. Ultimately, we aim to become a vibrant and dynamic global financial hub. How much of this vision have we so far realised? 2. Financial sector reform - concrete changes  We have made many concrete changes across the financial services industry.
Mojmír Hampl: Should non-euro area countries welcome the banking union? Speech by Mr Mojmír Hampl, Vice Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the Europolis Conference “Auf dem Weg zu mehr Stabilität”, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, 5 April 2013. *  *  *  My remarks today focus on non-euro area countries’ attitude to the SSM (Single Supervisory Mechanism), as it is the key part of what is called the banking union (BU) which is “almost” finalized. Let me start with a statement that the so-called BU is currently only an emerging concept. We are very far from the final version and it is difficult to guess what the final outcome might be. Nevertheless, what we get in the end will be critical for the position of non-euro area countries. So, what is it all about? The proposed BU is based on four/five pillars, or “legs”: a.  CRD IV – the Capital Requirements Directive, or single rules  b.  SSM, or the Single Supervisory Mechanism under the ECB  c.  Single resolution and recovery mechanisms a rules  d.  A single system of deposit guarantees  e.  Finally, a fiscal back-up through the ESM  Problems emerge immediately, because each pillar is at a different stage of negotiation and approval, involves different rules of approval and, more importantly, so far each applies to a different group of countries: a. The ESM already exists.

And this is exactly the opposite of what should have been happening if a functioning banking and contingent fiscal union had been emerging. So we are risking creating a half-baked BU which will not necessarily be ready for future bad times. And it is also a partial answer to the question of potential participation of some non-euro countries in the SSM. Simply, it is too premature to judge whether the BU is going to be a good project worth participating, or not. Only after the whole project with all it “legs” is created can one seriously answer this question. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Commercial banks operating in the eurozone are willing to borrow around 250 billions Euro from the European Central Bank paying the key policy rate and at the end of the same day to deposit the same money at the European Central Bank being paid the discount rate, which is 1 percentage point less, but the spread between the short-term money market rates and the key policy rate still persists. Magnitude of the commercial banks’ position compared with the European Central Bank shows how huge the uncertainty has been. Only restoration of confidence about solvency and financial stability among commercial banks can most probably solve this problem. The third frontier we are concerned about is connected to the emergency liquidity assistance. Under standard circumstances central banks provide liquidity to commercial banks only. In case of an urgent need a commercial bank may ask the central bank for an emergency credit. What we see in the United States today is an attempt to extend this emergency assistance beyond the banking system and provide liquidity against collateral to non-banking firms. On one hand, one understands the effort of the Federal Reserve to provide funding also to the non-banking sector of the economy when the traditional channels are freezing. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is effectively printing money against collateral with uncertain value and there are concerns when and how the Federal Reserve will close and null these operations to avoid potential inflationary consequences.

Henrique Meirelles: Brazil-Argentina Local Currency Payment System Speech by Mr Henrique Meirelles, Governor of the Central Bank of Brazil, at the Inauguration of the Brazil-Argentina Local Currency System, Buenos Aires, 2 October 2008. *  *  *  It is an honor to attend today the launching of the Brazil-Argentina Local Currency Payments System (SML). I am certain that this initiative will be a watershed in the bilateral relations between the two nations. Coincidentally, the new system kicks off in a period of financial turmoil and liquidity crunch in international trade, in which cooperation among central banks becomes fundamental to facilitate trade and to deepen economic ties. Central banks are responsible for ensuring adequate international payments systems. In processes of economic, financial and trade integration, the objective is to establish an efficient payments structure for intra-regional transactions. When flexible and unobstructed payments systems are available, trade transactions flow with greater ease and lower costs, and financial flows tend to intensify. This is what we expect from the new SML system. Initial obstacles have been overcome. The mechanism of the SML will trigger significant changes in the way in which companies export and import. In Brazil, exporters may now operate in real, while Argentine businesspeople may operate in pesos. Each one of our countries established a consistent framework for management of the system.
Table 1 Domestic Scenario (variación anual, porcentaje)  2017  2018 (f) Jun.18 Report  GDP Mining GDP Non-mining GDP Domestic demand Domestic demand (w/o inventory change) Gross fixed capital formation Total consumption Goods and services exports Goods and services imports Current account (% GDP) Ahorro nacional bruto (% del PIB) Gross fixed capital formation  1.5 -2.0 1.8 3.1 1.8 -1.1 2.7 -0.9 4.7 -1.5 20.6 21.6  2019 (f) Sep.18 Report  Jun.18 Report  2020 (f) Sep.18 Report  Jun.18 Report  Sep.18 Report  3.25-4.0  4.0-4.5  3.25-4.25  3.25-4.25  3.0-4.0  2.75-3.75  4.1 3.7 4.5 3.6 5.2 6.7 -2.1 20.3 21.6  4.6 4.1 5.0 3.8 4.9 6.2 -2.2 20.3 21.7  3.9 3.6 4.5 3.4 3.4 3.8 -2.5 20.6 21.9  3.7 3.7 4.5 3.4 4.2 4.4 -2.6 20.5 22.1  3.5 3.6 3.9 3.5 2.5 2.6 -2.6 20.7 22.2  3.3 3.7 3.9 3.6 2.8 2.8 -0.3 20.5 22.4  (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

16  Figure 6 US-China trade (percent of each country's GDP)  30  35 35 United States Other imports Chinese imports30 30  25  25 25  25  20  20 20  20  15  15 15  15  10  10 10  10  5  5  5  5  0  0  0  0  35  99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17  35  China Other imports  US imports 30  99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17  Source: Bloomberg. Figure 7 Nominal exchange rate and multilateral measures (1)  Real exchange rate (2)  (index, 2017-2018=100)  (index, 1986=100)  110  110  105  MER-5 OER 105  100  MER 100  120  120  2003-2017 average  110  110  100  TCR  90 95  MER-X 95  90  90  17  17 Jul. 18 18  18 Jul. (1) Dotted vertical line shows punteada corresponde al cierre estadístico del IPoM de marzo y junio del 2018. Source: Central Bank of Chile. 80  100 90  1998-2017 average  70  80 70  89 93 97 01 05 09 13 17 (2) August 2018 information covers up to the 28th. Source: Central Bank of Chile.
I note that even publicly traded companies that wrestle with the relatively easy task of providing forward guidance on revenue and earnings find that exercise especially vexing; most won’t venture beyond forecasting the upcoming quarter – and that is after they already have a month’s worth of the quarter’s data in hand! In this morning’s Financial Times, Charles Goodhart, professor emeritus at the London School of Economics and former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, claims to have examined the record of three central banks that have most prominently engaged in the practice of providing multiyear rate forecasts. He concludes: “The record for central banks in New Zealand, Sweden and Norway is not encouraging. In the short run, over the next three months and to a lesser extent over the subsequent quarter, these central banks do have additional (inside) information about their own future actions. Beyond this, however, the extra informational content of those central bank forecasts is zero. Moreover, the market knows that central bankers have no superhuman forecasting ability and will tend to view the supposed longerterm forecasts as a version of jawboning, attempts to persuade the market to change its mind for immediate policy purposes. Again, there is little empirical evidence that the market responds to such jawboning, and why should it when the central bank is as ignorant of the longer-term future as they are?”6 I don’t in any way consider my learned colleagues on the FOMC to be ignorant.

Herein lies the tale of the recent long-term policy and strategy statement issued by the FOMC at the conclusion of its meetings last week. The recent pronouncements of the FOMC Many of you may have read that the FOMC did three things after its two-day meeting Tuesday and Wednesday a week ago. First, the committee issued the usual policy statement, stating that it “currently anticipates that economic conditions … are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.”5 There are presently 17 participants in FOMC meetings: the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents and the five current governors. Ten out of the 17 people get to vote in any given year, with the governors and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York always having a vote. I voted last year, and you may recall that together with Mr. [Charles] Plosser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Mr. [Narayana] Kocherlakota of the Minneapolis Fed, I resisted the notion of a need for a statement indicating that monetary accommodation be tied to a specific date, be it in mid-2013, late 2014 or any other. Instead, I feel that the key should be to calibrate monetary policy according to the state or condition of the economy.