samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As a result, the downward spiral, which was triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September and which, for a short while, even threatened to bring the global financial system crashing down, has come to halt. After having climbed to unsustainable highs in recent years, the prices of many investments fell to extremely low levels during the turmoil this past winter. The rapid recovery in the financial markets since March must also be partly regarded as a correction of previous excesses. Furthermore, the extremely expansionary monetary policy being pursued worldwide is likely to have also contributed to calming the situation. However, the recovery in the financial markets should not conceal the fact that uncertainty is still high. How sustainable the shift in market sentiment really is remains to be seen. The risk of suffering a setback remains correspondingly high. The SNB’s unconventional monetary policy measures At our quarterly assessment in March, we were confronted by the need to once again significantly expand our monetary policy. Since the repo rates were already practically at zero, we had to resort to unconventional monetary policy measures. We decided to conclude longer-term repo transactions on the one hand, and to purchase foreign currencies and Swiss franc bonds on the other. By simultaneously intervening in the money, foreign exchange and capital markets when necessary, a strong and broad-based monetary policy impact can be generated, without leading to any major distortions in the markets concerned. Allow me here to add a few remarks on our foreign currency and bond purchases.

William C Dudley: Workforce development and reinvention in the Rochester economy Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, before the Rochester Business Alliance, Rochester, New York, 12 August 2015. *  *  *  Jaison Abel, Chelsea Cruz, Tony Davis, Richard Deitz, Eric Pajonk and Joseph Tracy assisted in preparing these remarks. Good morning. I am very pleased to be in Rochester and to have the opportunity to speak here today. I would like to give a special thanks to the Rochester Business Alliance for their part in making this event possible. My meeting with you today is part of our continuing efforts to understand what is going on at the grassroots level of our economy. During these trips I meet with a variety of stakeholders, which helps me develop a comprehensive view of local conditions and a fuller understanding of any major issues and concerns. This is my third visit to Rochester in the past five years. In my remarks, I will provide an overview of the regional economy and discuss the importance of workforce development, both for Rochester and the broader economy. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System. Reinvention in the Rochester economy Like Upstate New York more generally, the Rochester economy has lagged behind the nation for a number of decades.
Figure 10: CPI in Developed and Emerging Figure 11: Core CPI in Developed and Markets Emerging Markets (Annual Percentage Change)  (Annual Percentage Change)  5  8  4  Developed Countries  7  4  Developing Countries  6 3  5  2  4  1  3  Developed Countries  2  2  Developing Countries (rhs) 0  1  Source: Bloomberg, CBT. 0409  1208  0808  0408  1207  0807  0407  1206  0806  0406  1 1205  0409  1208  0808  0408  1207  0807  0407  1206  0806  0406  0 1205  -1  2. 3  Source: Bloomberg, CBT. Monetary policy response  After making brief remarks on inflation developments, I would now like to touch on the policies pursued by the Central Bank in this period. Anticipating that inflation would decrease sharply following the last quarter of 2008, when the global financial crisis deepened, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) has focused on alleviating the harsh impact of the global financial crisis on the domestic economy and financial stability. Throughout this process, the CBRT has delivered sizeable cuts in shortterm interest rates, while providing liquidity support to financial markets by following a countercyclical monetary policy.

In this respect, the utmost importance is attached to the commitment to the European Union accession process, and timely implementation of the structural reforms. I would like to underline that we will be closely monitoring developments pertaining to public finance while determining our medium-term monetary policy strategies. Thank you very much for your attention. BIS Review 103/2009  19
For example, reduction in fossil fuel use may lead to significant trade-offs with growth and poverty reduction objectives, particularly in the short to medium-term. Targetting sustainable growth and development amidst capacity and funding constraints can thus present significant challenges for political leadership, economic priorities and social outcomes. In this context, given the higher cost of transition, the country may need a longer time to transition towards more sustainable growth policies. This may however result in delayed actions which would heighten physical risks. For the Bank, given the importance of financial inclusion, this could also involve placing different priorities on the impact of climate change in different community segments and to tailor interventions that are appropriate and relevant to provide effective financial protection, particularly to vulnerable segments. A corollary of our pursuit towards a more sustainable, greener economy, would also be that some segments of the economy may face declining demand, big shifts in asset values or higher costs of doing business. “Brown assets” or non-sustainable assets such as fossil fuel reserves for example would potentially become “stranded assets”, which has implications on the value of investments in energy companies, particularly those dealing with oil, gas and coal. Globally, it is 4/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  estimated that more than 80% of the known coal deposits, 50% of gas, and one third of the oil reserves cannot be used for energy production if global warming is to be kept below 2°C .

Ultimately, in striving for sustainability, we are endearing into each and every one of us our role as custodians and stewards of this planet and its resources. We all have a role to play in achieving the 2030 SDGs, including the financial sector which can be a significant contributor in this journey. This will be among the key themes in the next Financial Sector Blueprint 2021–2025 that is currently being developed. For the Islamic finance industry, the larger aspiration is the adoption of VBI to bring about continued, sustained, sustainable positive impacts to the economy and society. A long view is required to value social and environmental gains, and to recognise returns beyond financial profits. Being cognisant of the limited window of time that we have at present, our actions from now would lessen the potential losses and enhance the prospects of our future. On that note, I wish you a productive forum ahead. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches
4  BIS Review 23/2003  However, this does not mean that developments in financial markets, and especially asset price bubbles, are not important for central bank behaviour. On the contrary, we clearly need to monitor movements in asset prices, as they reflect expectations about future economic developments and are important for the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Furthermore, central banks should always be aware of strong movements in asset prices because of their possible repercussions for financial stability. In this sense, asset price developments play a role in our monetary policy decisions to the extent that they reveal relevant information for the state of the economy and the outlook for price stability. In this respect, our monetary policy strategy, which gives money and credit a very prominent indicator role, is a great aid. Economic history has shown that in many instances strong money and credit growth has accompanied financial bubbles, whose subsequent bursting then endangered financial stability. To summarise, the best contribution a central bank can make to prevent financial bubbles from forming and bursting is to continue pursuing a monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability, thereby contributing to a stable macro-economic environment. Conclusions I would now like to conclude. The famous English economist and essayist Walter Bagehot once said that “No real English gentleman, in his secret soul, was ever sorry for the death of a political 9 economist”.

Furthermore, economic agents should not be given any cause to act on the basis of expectations that central banks would insure financial markets against considerable losses. Otherwise, there would be serious moral hazard problems and the public would hold the central banks accountable for specific developments in financial markets such as the performance of the stock market. This might seriously impair the central banks' goal of pursuing price stability, and thus their credibility. Central banks also face considerable problems in terms of identifying financial bubbles. After all, a bubble can only be confidently identified as such once it has burst. 5  J.E. Core, W.R. Guay and D.F. Larcker, “Executive Equity Compensation and Incentives: A Survey”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, April 2003, pp.27-45. 6  A. Greenspan in his Testimony before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, 16 July 2002; see also A. Greenspan, “Stock Options and Related Matters”, remarks at the 2002 Financial Markets Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 3 May 2002. 7  P. Maidment, “In Nothing We Trust”, Forbes Magazine, 7 January 2001; F. Fukuyama, “Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity”, Free Press, 1995. 8  F. Fukuyama, “Social Capital and Civil Society”, 1 October 1999, paper presented at the IMF Conference on Second Generation Reforms; J. Sobel, “Can We Trust Social Capital?”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XL, March 2002, pp.139-154.
Jean-Claude Trichet: Intervention at the Eurofi Financial Forum 2011 Speech by Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the Eurofi Financial Forum 2011, Wroclaw, 15 September 2011. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, It is a great pleasure for me to be back here at the Eurofi Financial Forum. These events always provide a very good opportunity to exchange views on issues that are central to the effective functioning of the financial sector and its key task of supporting sustainable growth in the real economy. As we are all well aware, this is a very challenging time for the advanced economies. We avoided a dramatic economic depression in the autumn of 2008 – following the collapse of Lehman Brothers three years ago to this very day. But we still have a long way to go to move beyond this crisis. At the Pittsburgh Summit two years ago, the G20 leaders reiterated their promise to do “everything necessary to ensure recovery, to repair our financial systems and to maintain the global flow of capital”. Now, more than ever, we need to make significant progress in delivering on those promises. Today, I would like to focus on what has been achieved so far by our collective efforts to repair our financial systems – in particular, the establishment of the new European supervisory structure, the agreement on Basel III and the global framework for systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs).

But I also want to look at the road ahead: we must not stop here and leave our task halffinished. There is still very important work to be done on a number of regulatory challenges. And with all our reforms and with all our new institutions of economic and financial governance, we must ensure timely implementation so that we can ensure that we have done everything to make a difference as regards the resilience of the global, regional and national financial systems. The ESRB Let me start with some of our accomplishments before moving on to highlight some key areas where we need to make progress. The first accomplishment is the establishment of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) earlier this year. As you know, the ESRB brings together the policy makers such as central banks, supervisors and the Commission, thus fostering a broad-based review of risks and vulnerabilities and a deeper understanding of interlinkages and spillovers between different parts of the financial system. This wide-ranging perspective, which encompasses both micro and macro elements, is an essential feature of the new European supervisory framework and it fills a gap identified at the global level. Although the ESRB does not have direct binding powers, the effectiveness of its “comply or explain” mechanism builds upon the high reputation of the ESRB’s members and the quality of its analysis.
Under the Bank of Thailand’s Payment Systems Roadmap, we will continue to work with regional regulators to advance payment systems connectivity to support trades, labor movements and tourisms. At present, we are building new electronic payment infrastructure under the National e-Payment Plan. GMS countries can leverage on this infrastructure to improve system capability and connectivity. Ladies and gentlemen,  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  The GMS is a subregion of opportunities. The ASEAN Economic community is now in full swing, and CLMV members have now eliminated the last set of tariffs since the beginning of this year. Economic transitions following the liberalization in GMS countries have unlocked opportunity for foreign investors. Higher purchasing power from growing and young middleclass translates into higher demand for goods, services and more sophisticated financial services to be met. Enhanced regional connectivity is a key to shared prosperity of the GMS. The Bank of Thailand is committed to promoting financial system connectivity to facilitate closer economic integration, and is ready to move forward with our partners both in Thailand and the GMS. Finally, I thank Euromoney once again for organizing this important conference. I wish you productive and engaging sessions throughout the conference. Kob Khun Krub. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Another is permanent, and like the first should be in the category of a given – namely, good conduct by banks. But the third – the dependence on public money – should not survive, hence the strong focus on developing bank resolution and ending too big to fail. President, we all have our work cut-out. You can take pride in the role of the Institute in supporting the establishment of the Professional Standards Board and their work on the Code of Professional Conduct and the Professional Standards initiative. As a start, I understand that at least 70,000 bank staff will go through the Foundation Standard by the beginning of July this year. This is a big achievement, for which those involved should be proud. There is a lot more to do I know, but let me congratulate Susan Rice, who has led the work, and everyone else involved. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
Maja Kadievska-Vojnovik: Fintech and digital transformation "Regulating an anonymous world" Platform for discussion by Ms Maja Kadievska-Vojnovik, Vice-Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the xCEEd Conference on Fintex, Belgrade, 22-23 May 2018. * * *  FinTech Sector – General trends, current state in Macedonia, main challenges and risks and impact on central banks’ activity FinTech is one of the fastest-growing sectors in the global financial services industry nowadays with total global venture investment in FinTech companies reaching high of $ billion in 2016(KPMG, 2016).The highest number of FinTech service providers is in the payments, clearing and settlement category, followed by credit, deposit and capital-raising services (Basel Committee on the Banking Supervision Survey, 2016). Research in the area (ATKearney & EFMA, 2013) points to several factors that define readiness for digitization in the banking sector such as: 1) the capacity of banks for innovation; 2) the stage of technological development where the country is located; 3) the level of competition in the sector; 4) culture of consumption; 5) demographic structure of the population; 6) degree of concentration in the banking sector; and 7) the existing regulation, which can promote or constrain emergence of new technological solutions.

Assessing the effective degree of leverage in an ever-changing financial system is far from straightforward, and the liquidity of the markets in complex instruments, especially in conditions when many players would be trying to reduce the leverage of their portfolios at the same time, is unpredictable. Excessive leverage is the common theme of many financial crises of the past. Are we really so much cleverer than the financiers of the past? Concerns about the rate at which credit is being created extend to monetary policy. As I said last week in Cardiff, it would be optimistic in the extreme to suppose that the rapid growth of money and credit could be dismissed solely as a positive shock to the demand for money. The spread between interest rates paid by households and businesses and interest rates available in the money market has fallen. This has been one of the factors behind the strength of demand in the UK economy over the past  2  BIS Review 69/2007  year. Despite greater availability of labour, businesses have not expanded employment sufficiently to prevent stronger demand from increasing capacity pressures. Such pressures encourage businesses to raise prices. And that is exactly what the business surveys suggest has been happening. That underlying upward pressure on inflation has in part been hidden by the volatility of domestic energy prices. But it is why we have raised interest rates four times and by 1 percentage point in all over the past year.
First there is the process of oversight itself - spotting risk concentrations and threats that could cause instability: and taking actions to mitigate these threats in a variety of ways. Second, however, there is as a last resort the mechanism for intervention: if things go wrong and crisis is threatened or actually occurs. And things will go wrong. A zero-risk environment would not only be impossible, but would be undesirable. The moral hazard which would ensue, together with unwelcome restriction of market processes could ultimately add to, rather than detract from, social cost. We need to be in a position to decide about, and where necessary to act, in occasional injections of liquidity and support for particular firms or markets. Breaking the chain of adverse behaviour may sometimes be necessary to restore confidence in the integrity of the system as a whole. Using financial stability oversight to reduce the costs to society requires sophisticated and up-to-date techniques. Despite today’s complexity the basic concepts in relation to oversight have not changed. Concentrations of risk have been with us since financial markets began and so have mechanisms for the transfer of risks. The concepts of guarantees, of options and of securities transfer date back into history - references to the use of derivatives can be traced back to the Sumerians in Mesopotamia 4000 years ago. And so too does the concept of speculative, or misconceived excess being deflated by a variety of possible macro or micro shocks. 4.

Without the need to focus on the regulatory responsibilities for the individual firms, we focus on what might disrupt the functioning of the financial system, and especially what might pose a threat to liquidity, and what can be done to mitigate it. We also need to be in a position to advise on the extent of possible financial support if major problems arise, and to provide that support if and as agreed. And the Treasury of course has to play a vital role in reflecting Government policy as a whole, with a particular scrutiny of developments which ultimately could bring into consideration the need for taxpayers’ money. On the global level things are very different. You could argue intellectually that, since national boundaries mean so little in relation to financial stability oversight, there is a case for creating a single global body. In reality of course we are nowhere near that, any more than we are to creating global Government itself. The difference in political and legal systems and culture, clearly make it  BIS Review 5/2004  7  impracticable. So for the time being, whether at a global or even an EU level, we have to rely on proxies and co-ordination. This proxy must be as effective as possible. This explains the activity to create and maintain robust international standards and practice in the institutions, and infrastructure of the global market.
χ2 statistic  Expected rate changes IR months non-IR months  4.41** 0.13 7.54***  Whole period 1997-2000 2001-present  8 5 3  9.09*** 2.23 7.68***  D. Are interest rate surprises larger in Inflation Report months? C. Are interest rate surprises getting smaller?

To be sure, there have been times when differences of view about the central projection have been too significant to be handled within the ambit of the fan chart and on those (few) occasions the Inflation Report has included material illustrating the minority view. But, as the MPC’s preface to the Inflation Report notes, the fan charts reflect the Committee’s best collective judgement about the most likely paths for output and inflation and the uncertainties surrounding the central projections, while recognising that members may have slightly different views about the underlying assumptions. Forecasts and interest rate decisions How influential is the forecasting process when it comes to the actual business of taking decisions about interest rates? One yardstick might be whether the MPC is more likely to change rates in Inflation Report months. There is no necessary reason why this should be so: information accrues relatively evenly over the year, and the Committee goes through the same decision taking process every month. On the other hand, the MPC might be more likely to change rates after a systematic and full review of the inflation outlook, rather than in response to the news on the month. On this argument, ready-reckoners may give a rough indication of what the impact of new data may be, but they are no substitute for a full analysis. So in non-Inflation Report months the MPC may sometimes decide to ‘wait-and-see’ – to postpone a possible interest rate change until more evidence has accumulated.