BIS Review 73/2004  1  coincidences are not evidence of guilt. Bookshops do not stock such titles as “I would have been a billionaire if only Lady Luck had been faithful”.3 In my lecture tonight I want to illustrate two propositions. First, in a wide range of collective decisions it is vital to think in terms of probabilities. We cannot avoid taking decisions, so we must accept the need to analyse the uncertainty that inevitably surrounds them. H.G. Wells is often reported as saying that, “Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write”. And that is even more true today when we are inundated with statistics from every quarter. Second, in order that public discussion can be framed in terms of risks, the public needs to receive accurate and objective information about the risks. Transparency and honesty about risks should be an essential part of both the decision-making process and the explanation of decisions. I want to illustrate those two propositions by considering as an example public policy about pensions an issue, you might think, of particular interest to many of us in the Academy. When the Pensions Commission reported in October, it highlighted the financing gap in our present system. But we must not lose sight of the equally important question of what are the risks incurred in pension provision and how should they be shared among us? It is not my intention to make any recommendations.

Our robust regulatory infrastructure, sound Shariah governance framework, wide international connectivity, diversified players and products, elevated by the Malaysia International Islamic Financial Centre (MIFC) agenda, provides a conducive landscape for the Islamic financial industry to tap into emerging opportunities in these areas of focus. To underpin this is the development of a vibrant Islamic Financial Market. As part of Financial Market Committee’s (FMC) effort to further develop the onshore financial markets, we have established two subcommittees: the Bond Market Subcommittee and the Islamic Financial Market Subcommittee to formulate specific market development initiatives to take us forward. The creation of these subcommittees underlines the importance of both of these markets in the context of overall development of the domestic financial markets. The Islamic Financial Market Subcommittee will review the current landscape to identify and address challenges to the continued growth and development of the Islamic financial market, particularly in light of the growing importance of Malaysia's Islamic Banking sector as well as the significance of Malaysia's Islamic capital market, both domestically and globally. Domestic Islamic banks account for about 42.5% of the overall commercial banking loan book and could reach 45% by the end of 2026[1]. In the Sukuk segment, Malaysia has maintained its leadership position in the global sukuk market in 2021 by commanding a market share of 37% of the global sukuk outstanding[2]. The industry has already developed an encouraging track record in the sustainable finance space, as evident from the sovereign and corporate sustainability sukuk issuances to finance green and social-related projects.