samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Apart from oil, food prices are expected to remain elevated, even as the rate of increase moderates. 6. These external developments – higher oil prices, continued high prices of food, and inflationary pressures in our trading partners – have affected Singapore because of our openness and heavy dependence on imports. We are thus revising our CPI inflation forecast for this year to 6-7%, compared to the earlier estimate of 5-6%. Given the outcome in the first  BIS Review 94/2008  1  half of the year, the new forecast range implies that headline CPI inflation is expected to come down over the rest of the year. There are several reasons for this: •  First, the one-off impact of the GST hike will cease to affect headline inflation in July. •  Second, although global commodity prices are likely to remain high, any further price increases are expected to be milder, compared to the first half of the year. •  Third, there are early signs of an easing of domestic cost pressures as the economy slows and asset markets consolidate. The rate of increase in commercial rentals, for example, appears to have peaked. Recent employment surveys have also shown that employers have become more cautious about hiring, suggesting that the pressures on the labour market could ease. •  Fourth, MAS had pursued a policy of targeting an appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate $ since 2004.

All these developments reflect Singapore’s ideal position for asset managers to deepen and broaden their activities in the Asian time-zone. Annual accounts 28. On our financial statements, MAS recorded a net profit of $ billion for the financial year. The profits comprised mainly interest income, as changes in the valuation of foreign assets and the foreign exchange effects of a stronger Singapore dollar largely offset each other. Total assets, including the Currency Fund, grew by $ billion during the year to $ billion at end-March 2008. 4  BIS Review 94/2008  Remaining vigilant 29. We need to remain vigilant in the face of a number of risks in the global economic and financial environment. We will continue to work closely with the industry to identify vulnerabilities and threats to financial stability through macro surveillance and stress testing. MAS’ work in the coming year will continue to be driven by our mission of supporting noninflationary economic growth, and fostering a sound and reputable financial centre. 30. Thank you. BIS Review 94/2008  5
Second, the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet expansion does have a consequence for the balance sheet of the banking system. The increase in the amount of excess reserves has to be held by banks. Excess reserves are a risk-free asset that they may not wish to hold. More important, to the extent that the banks worry about their overall leverage ratios, it is possible that a large increase in excess reserves could conceivably diminish the willingness of banks to lend. At present, these balance-sheet issues do not appear to be having a meaningful effect on bank behavior. In fact, the excess reserves serve as a liquidity buffer that many banks find attractive in the current environment. But that does not mean we can ignore this issue. We need to keep this issue in mind as we contemplate how much balance-sheet expansion might be appropriate. Third, the Federal Reserve is taking on some interest-rate risk in terms of its balance sheet. The excess reserves have an overnight maturity. These liabilities are being used to purchase longer-term assets. In principle, if short-term interest rates were to move up very sharply, the  6  BIS Review 94/2009  cost of funding could eventually exceed the return on the Fed’s assets. The bigger our balance sheet, the greater the amount of interest-rate risk we are assuming. We have examined this issue in detail.

The borrowers would then spend these monies, thereby boosting economic activity. The funds would not disappear, but instead would flow back into the banking system as they were deposited by those who had received the income generated by the increase in spending, thus replenishing the reserves that had been lent out in the first round of lending. This would result in a new stock of excess reserves that would then lead to a second round of credit creation and a further increase in economic activity. This cycling of excess reserves into credit creation, and the corresponding increase in economic activity, would continue until the excess reserves were fully absorbed by an increase in currency outstanding and/or an increase in required reserves associated with the rise in the amount of banking deposits. Inflation would rise as the excessive credit creation generated by the excess reserves led to an overheated economy and a rise in inflation expectations. But that is not the world in which we now live. Because the Federal Reserve now has the ability to pay interest on excess reserves (IOER), it also now has the ability to prevent excess reserves from leading to excessive credit creation. Because the Federal Reserve is the safest of counterparties, the IOER rate effectively becomes the risk-free rate. 3 By raising that rate, the Federal Reserve raises the cost of credit more generally because banks will not lend at rates below the IOER rate when they can instead hold their excess reserves on deposit with the Fed.
The following Wednesday afternoon, the MPC meets by itself to have a detailed discussion of all of the key issues raised by the data, plus any tactical considerations. Then, on Thursday morning, each member indicates the factors he or she considers relevant, and gives his or her vote. The decision is announced to the public at 12 noon, with the minutes of the meeting following two weeks later. The regularity and the rigour of this process are absolutely key to the continued success of the UK regime. We do not respond in an unreflective way to individual pieces of data. We do not choose the timing of meetings to suit the headlines or some special interest group. And we seek to avoid rush judgements. Wherever possible, we try to take decisions in the round, on the basis of as broad a data set as possible, and after detailed discussion of the alternative economic interpretations. Of course, the Bank of England Act provides for flexibility where it is needed. Highly unusual events - such as the terrible terrorist attacks - may demand a special meeting, such as the one we held on 18 September, outside the normal timetable. But it is this regular, comprehensive, systematic analysis which is the backbone of the process. Of course, agreement on process need not imply agreement on substance. Members of the MPC do not always agree precisely on the appropriate stance of policy, as those of you who read our minutes will know.

In particular, the manufacturing sector has been struggling under the effects of sterling's ongoing strength and the weakening in the world economy which I have already discussed. Manufacturing output today is little higher than it was in March 1998, and employment in the sector has fallen considerably over that period. The difficulties faced by the traded sector are reflected in the UK's relatively weak net trade position, which has reduced GDP growth in 14 of the last 17 quarters. Surprisingly, but encouragingly, manufacturing output rose by 1.4% in August - the largest monthly rise for two years. Whether this pickup will persist is, of course, unclear at the moment. In assessing whether some of these short-term movements are likely to last, the MPC is particularly reliant on intelligence from firms. Like others, we pay close attention to the major industrial surveys. But we are also able to call on our network of regional Agents, who talk each month to a wide variety of companies, including, I know, some of you. It is clear from the Agents' reports that the confidence of many of those they speak to has been hit in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks. Labour hiring and discretionary spending decisions may be deferred for a while, whilst the situation becomes clearer. And investment could be reduced if businesses look for a higher return to cover any increased risk. What does all of this mean for inflation? So-called 'upstream' prices - including raw material costs and factory gate prices - remain very subdued.
Since then, positive demand news has lifted the starting level of UK output. If this level was maintained along the same growth trajectory, the average output gap over the next three years would be 3 percentage points smaller than in May. With a Phillips curve slope of a third, inflation at years 2 and 3 would be around 1 percentage point higher than expected in May. Another significant piece of news since May has been in asset prices. Since then, shorter-term interest rates have fallen by around 25 basis points, risky asset prices such as equities have risen by almost 7% and the sterling exchange rate has fallen by around 2¼%. Taken together, these asset prices movements represent a material loosening in UK monetary conditions. On standard ready-reckoners, they would boost output by around ½%, and inflation by around 0.2 percentage points, at the policy horizon relative to the May scenario. Finally, imagine we plugged this news about the expected output gap and inflation into a standard Taylor Rule, in which interest rates are mechanically set in line with these two factors. Assuming weights on the 22  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  22  two terms of 0.5 and 1.5 respectively, the Taylor Rule implied path of interest rates would, on average, be around 1 percentage point higher over the policy horizon as a result of the news about asset prices and demand, relative to the May-implied scenario path.

I would like to move on now from regulation to a number of other developments and challenges that are currently on the horizon and to discuss the possible impacts these could have on insurers’ business models. The nature of insurance and the risk transfer role it provides means that insurance cuts across all aspects of society; whether providing at retirement solutions to pensioners to insuring the latest iPhone. It is for this reason that insurers find themselves innovating in step with wider society. As insurers are directly exposed to social changes, the changing world is the very stuff on which they should thrive. There are a number of such societal, regulatory or environmental changes currently at play such as global warming, globalisation, digitisation, demographic changes and cyber risk to name but a few. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Societal and environmental changes A topical environmental change that is quickly moving up the agenda for insurers is that of climate change. Climate change impacts insurers on both sides of their balance sheets. Insurers may be impacted by increased claims experience – particularly so given the London Market’s prominence in areas like catastrophe risk. But it appears that the asset side may also give rise to unexpected risks. Let’s take these in turn. We are seeing evermore frequent “record” weather events; storms; floods; hotter summers; intense rainfall; not to mention global concerns such as higher sea levels. Insurers are having to respond to these shifts.
Table IV Extent of microfinance outreach in South Asia Country  Population Poverty Ratio  (millions)  %  Poor Families  MF Clients  (millions) (millions)  MF MF Borrowing Poverty Coverage Clients, % Outreach of Poor of Families population %  %  Afghanistan  22  55  2  0.12  50  3  -  Bangladesh  143  50  13  16  50  62  13.1  India  1100  30  60  15  35  9  1.1  Nepal  26  35  1.6  0.5  45  14  1.5  Pakistan  155  33  8.5  0.58  35  2  -  Sri Lanka  20  25  1  2.5  25  63  4.3  Source: Getting Finance in South Asia Phase IV – 2008 World Bank Publication  Women still feature significantly in the vulnerable groups and it is imperative to include them in the facilities offered by the formal financial sector. However, in terms of micro finance coverage of poor families, Sri Lanka covers 63 families, which is the highest in South Asia. Similarly, women account for 4.3% of the borrowing clients. Sri Lanka at 4.3% is below Bangladesh, which is at 13%, but way above others. We, in Sri Lanka, had high hopes of enhancing financial inclusion of women through the Millennium Development Goals, which would have provided a smooth path for financial inclusion for women.

Insurance regulators around the world are adopting risk-based capital and Singapore has been a frontrunner with our current Insurance Risk-Based Capital (RBC) framework introduced in 2004. This risk framework has served us well, and our insurers have navigated largely unscathed through recent financial crises; while the framework allowed for regulatory 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  intervention in a timely and effective manner. Now, I know this begs the question – if it isn’t broken, why fix it? 17. The answer is that the operating environment for global finance including insurance, has and will become increasingly complex given the more connected global markets, the vulnerability of contagion, an overall low interest rate environment that pushes investors including insurers to target more risky higher-yielding products and potential new risk areas such as in some emerging markets or in technology risks. 18. It is important that our insurance capital framework remains relevant and effective and that insurers operating in Singapore are well-capitalised to weather different crises and risk forms. 19. At the global level, the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) has also embarked on the development of capital standards for internationally Active Insurance Groups (“IAIGs”); while the International Accounting Standards Board is expected to finalise its guidance on insurance contracts under IFRS4 sometime this year. Progress on RBC2 20. Last year, MAS published our second consultation paper, which outlined our key proposals for RBC2. We also conducted the first quantitative impact study (QIS1) to assess the potential impact of the proposed changes on the industry.
This has improved with the various initiatives that we have undertaken in creating awareness and working with the industry, government and agencies to expand the offerings and the use of Islamic trade finance facilitation with the share growing to 31.4% in 2020. However, we have to acknowledge that we may still have much to do and we look forward to the report which I have been informed also shares a host of ideas and recommendations for us to take forward. Before that, please allow me to share some thoughts on some of the important thrusts that we see for us to take into consideration as we continue our work in this. Firstly, we critically need trade-based solutions to ease liquidity constraints. The pandemic, which led to subdued domestic demand and stringent COVID-19 containment measures, has resulted in a liquidity squeeze among Malaysian businesses, particularly the SMEs. To stay afloat, some companies have had to resort to increased debt to meet their payment obligations. 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  While measures have been introduced to lessen the burden of SMEs in the form of wage assistance programmes, support grants and deferment of financing instalments, these are merely a temporary backstop akin to a band-aid. Prolonged assistance of this form may not be sustainable. The over dependence on debt-based instruments also reduces the financial flexibility of businesses in supporting their recovery. Trade-based solutions can offer a viable option where funding is tailored to the lifecycle of production.

“Carbon Dated: Multinational companies planning to cut suppliers by 2025 for failing to curb carbon emissions”. 5 Source: MITI (April 2021). “Investment Policy Reforms to be rooted in the National Investment Aspirations (NIA)”,  Media Release and MIDA (May, 2021). “Malaysia is shifting gears: National Investment Aspirations (NIA). eNewsletter. 6 Source: Musnad Ahmad, ar-Risalah issuance, page number: 502/ 28, hadith number 17265. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
Our forecast is that the surplus this year will correspond to around 7 per cent of GDP this year, despite exports being expected to fall by around 16 per cent. One reason for the large surplus in the current account is that exports have developed strongly since the early 1990s. At that time exports corresponded to around 30 per cent of GDP, but now the figure is around 50 per cent of GDP. This means at the same time that exports are very important to the Swedish economy and that the weak economic growth abroad therefore hits Sweden particularly hard. New information during the summer points to a slight improvement To summarise, the new information received during the summer tends to point to a slightly stronger economic activity than we had forecast at the beginning of July. GDP was three tenths of a percentage point better and employment fell two tenths of a percentage point less than we had forecast. A number of indicators have also exceeded market expectations. All in all, this supports the view we had that the deep economic recession has bottomed out. However, most indications are still that the recovery will be weak. Inflation fell slightly more than we had anticipated in July, but underlying inflation was in line with our forecasts. However, we will not make an overall assessment of economic developments until it is time for our next monetary policy decision on 2 September.

This is why the Fund is an integrated entity located in Norges Bank. Norges Bank works to preserve the Fund’s long-term financial value. Responsible investment is part of that task. As a long-term financial investor, the Fund stands to benefit from sound and sustainable growth in the companies and markets included in its investment universe. We use a variety of instruments to exercise our ownership rights. We engage in close dialogue with companies, investors and regulatory authorities. We vote at shareholder  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  meetings in line with pre-defined principles and publish our voting results on a regular basis. We also submit shareholder proposals and participate in consultations based on the fundamental principles that we apply in the exercise of ownership rights. Norges Bank integrates the considerations relating to corporate governance, the environment and social conditions into the investment process. Because the Fund is a longterm financial investor, we place considerable emphasis on our role as responsible investor. The overriding goal, which is the highest possible return at an acceptable level of risk, remains firmly established. If Norges Bank is assessed using criteria other than return and risk, its mission will become unclear. This might also impact return performance. There must be no doubt as to the objective of investment management. Norway’s enormous economic progress since 1814 has not been linear. Rapid population growth and food crises in the latter half of the 1800s led to the massive emigration of close to 1 million Norwegians to America.
The sole purpose of these actions has been to promote the dual mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability in the wake of the financial crisis. The FOMC has stated that it currently anticipates keeping short-term interest rates exceptionally low until late 2014 and this has contributed to the decline in long-term rates. In addition, large-scale asset purchases and the maturity extension program have pushed down longer-term interest rates by removing duration from the private market. As a result, both the U.S. government and private-sector borrowers have benefited from unusually low borrowing costs. Indeed, the net interest burden data shown in Figure 2 actually overstates the net cost to Treasury. That is because the interest payments from the Treasury to the Federal Reserve are included in the net interest cost shown in Figure 2, but no offsetting adjustment is made for the fact that the Fed remits almost all of the interest it receives from the Treasury and on  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  its other portfolio holdings right back to the Treasury. The Federal Reserve’s remittances to the Treasury are included in the budget separately in the miscellaneous receipts category. Thus, one should deduct these receipts from the debt service numbers to properly measure the Treasury’s net interest burden. Normally, this adjustment doesn’t change the picture much. However, it is relevant now because Federal Reserve remittances are unusually high.

Let me elaborate on these two themes: why liberalise the financial sector, and why liberalise at a measured pace. In doing so, I will draw partly from Singapore’s experience. Singapore and Myanmar are two very different economies and it would be unwise to apply Singapore’s experience directly to Myanmar. But I think the overall lesson is relevant: It is critical to open up, but open up at a measured pace. Why financial liberalisation is important A well-developed financial sector can be a catalyst to spur and sustain economic growth. It will lead to more effective mobilisation of domestic savings, help to harness foreign savings, and improve the efficiency of investment allocation. And opening up the financial sector to foreign participation can play a critical role in catalysing the sector’s growth and development. A basic purpose of banking is the provision of credit for economic and social development. Large segments of the Myanmese economy and population do not have access to affordable funding. Foreign financial institutions can complement the local banks in effective credit intermediation. It will deepen the financial sector, thereby helping to raise household savings and divert funds away from the shadow financial system. Foreign financial institutions can provide a channel for Myanmar to tap into foreign savings to drive its growth, even as the country ramps up the mobilisation of domestic savings. This is  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  particularly relevant for financing infrastructure development, which is critical to drive Myanmar’s economic growth.