samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Lending rates for small and medium-sized enterprises, which provide two-thirds of total private sector employment in the euro area, have declined by over 180 basis points. The sharp reduction in bank lending rates has been accompanied by easier access to funding, as recent ECB surveys on bank lending and access to finance have shown. But it is not just lending rates that are more favourable. Bank lending volumes have also been gradually recovering since early 2014. Annual growth in credit to euro area households increased in January to 2.2% and growth in credit to businesses remained at 2.3% – the highest growth rates in more than four years. Market-based funding conditions, too, have improved significantly in response to the corporate sector purchase programme launched in June 2016. While monetary policy has been the mainstay of the recovery, there are other potential sources of macroeconomic stabilisation. Given the heterogeneity of countries across the euro area, the lack of synchronisation of business cycles, and the absence of fiscal transfers between Member States, capital markets play an important role in mitigating the income effects of region-specific shocks. For example, evidence suggests that capital markets and credit markets together help smooth around two-thirds of a shock to regional GDP in the United States, dwarfing the 13% contribution of federal transfers. In comparison, the overall contribution of markets to risk sharing in the euro area has, on average, been limited.

Taking into account inflation expectations, the pricing behavior and the course of other factors affecting inflation, we will maintain our tight monetary policy stance as long as deemed necessary. Chart 3. Chart 4. (2-Week Moving Average, Billion TL)  (Percent)  CBRT Funding*  *Marginal funding is O/N funding quoted at the upper limit of the corridor. Source: CBRT. CBRT Rates and BIST Interbank O/N Repo Rates  Source: BIST, CBRT. The yield curve, which was nearly flat in the last quarter of 2015 as in the entire year, assumed a positive slope in January 2016 (Chart 5). This was mainly due to long-term rates that rose amid the uncertainty surrounding global markets, geopolitical risks and heightened inflation expectations, which also affected the spread between 5-year market rates and the BIST overnight interbank rates. After remaining negative across the fourth quarter of 2015, the spread turned slightly positive in the first weeks of January as a result of rising 5-year market rates (Chart 6). 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 5. Chart 6. Yield Curve Between October 28, 2015- January 22, 2016 (Percent)  (Percent, 5-Day MA)  Source: Bloomberg,  Maturity (Year)  Money Market Rates  Source: Bloomberg, BIST. Regarding our Turkish lira liquidity policy, there has been some decline in banks’ FX swap deals with the market for short-term funds owing partly to changes we made to the guidelines for the use of FX deposits as collateral following the announcement of our road map.
The criteria used by Norges Bank to assess the interest rate reflect policymakers’ general views and assessments. They are therefore not “carved in stone”, but can be changed and modified due to new insights. Currently, the Bank uses five criteria, which can be summarized as follows: 1. Achievement of the inflation target  The interest rate should be set with a view to stabilising inflation close to the target in the medium term. The horizon will depend on disturbances to which the economy is exposed and the effects on the prospects for the path for inflation and the real economy. 2. Reasonable balance between the inflation gap and the output gap  Norges Bank conducts flexible inflation targeting, which implies that stabilising inflation around the target should be weighted against stability in the real economy. The chosen interest rate path should therefore imply a reasonable balance between the objectives if there is a conflict in the short term between stabilizing inflation around the target and stabilizing the real economy. What is meant by a “reasonable” balance is obviously a matter of judgment and is an important element in Board discussions. 3  For example, the Swedish Riksbank communicates the criteria behind the forecasts as follows: “The Riksbank’s forecasts are based on the assumption that the repo rate will develop in such a way that monetary policy can be regarded as well-balanced.

We experienced, however, that having a forecasting round every quarter leaves very little time for the staff to digest new information and conduct thorough analyses before the next Report had to be written. This is why we  4  Geraats, P.M., 2002. Central bank transparency, Economic Journal 112 (483), F532–F565. 5  Eijffinger, Sylvester and Petra Geraats (2006) "How Transparent Are Central Banks?" European Journal of Political Economy 22(1), March, pp. 1-21. 6  Dincer, N. Nergiz and Barry Eichengreen (2007) "Central Bank Transparency: Where, Why, and with What Effects?," NBER Working Papers 13003, National Bureau of Economic Research. 7  I thank Negriz Dincer and Barry Eichengreen for providing the sub-indexes for Norway, which were not reported in their paper. BIS Review 132/2008  5  started publishing three Reports a year instead of four. The Riksbank has come to the same conclusion and reduced the number of reports from four to three per year in 2006. I do not regret that Norges Bank made this move, and if I have to choose between good analyses and a high score on the Eijffinger-Geraats index, I know what I will choose. The third reason why we lost points on the Eijffinger-Geraats index is that we do not publish minutes and voting records. It is true that we do not publish voting records. This is because we have a collegial, and not individualistic, monetary policy committee, where the members of the Executive Boards stand unified behind the decision.
BIS Review 46/2006  1  Consequently, economic fluctuations in the euro area are important for both Israel and Switzerland. But in the Swiss case – and this is a kind of paradox for a country that does not belong to the EU – the relations are especially close: Switzerland shows a higher degree of cyclical integration with the euro area than the individual euro members themselves! Indeed, over the last five years, Swiss GDP growth has shown a correlation of 86% with economic growth in the euro area, while within the euro area, growth rates have had a correlation of only 65%. Israel's growth has a correlation with euro area growth of 62%. The deep integration of Switzerland in the European markets is not a surprise, since we are located at the heart of the Union, next to its largest members, but also because we have signed several bilateral agreements with the EU giving us free access to the European goods and labour markets. Israel's situation is quite different in that respect, but it remains a fact that, in both countries, fluctuations on the real side are closely linked to those in the euro area. Regarding the level of growth, Israel, as a relatively young country with a growing population, has outperformed both the euro area and Switzerland, with an average growth over the last five years of 2% versus 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. Nevertheless, Israeli GDP per capita is still only roughly half of that in Switzerland.

This has contributed to a well-diversified economic structure and has increased the resilience of the economy to external developments. The financial sector has also seen significant transformation. The restructuring, consolidation, and internal rationalisation of the banking sector is now virtually completed. Governance and risk management practices have also been improved while structural enhancements have been made in the capital market, significantly enhancing its role in the financial system. A comprehensive and robust Islamic financial system now also operates in parallel with the domestic, conventional financial system. Against the background of strengthened economic fundamentals and financial system, Malaysia has taken the opportunity to sequentially deregulate and liberalise the financial system. This includes the introduction of a new interest rate framework that is market-driven,  1/2  the liberalisation of foreign exchange administration rules to promote greater efficiency and enhance risk management in foreign exchange transactions, and the introduction of new foreign players into our financial system. In July this year, Malaysia adopted a managed float for the Ringgit exchange rate to better position Malaysia to respond to structural changes in the global and regional environment. Under this arrangement, the Ringgit is monitored against a basket of currencies of Malaysia's major trading partners. In this world of greater uncertainty, there has been significant focus on the issue of surveillance and risks and vulnerabilities. Experience has shown that surveillance has improved policy performance as well as the ability to take pre-emptive action to contain the impact of disruptive and destabilising developments.
It seems likely that only a very small number of banks in Hong Kong will decide, on the basis of their assessment of the costs and benefits, to invest immediately in a fully-fledged IRB-compliant system. However, very many  2  BIS Review 31/2003  more, I am sure, will want to test the water by starting to make greater use in their credit risk management process of models to assess PD, and this is something that we in the HKMA will welcome and, indeed, encourage. Rather than build an elaborate in-house model, many banks may start by purchasing and adapting a system from an external vendor. Or they may join together with other banks to share the cost of building models and databases, or establish a relationship with the academic fraternity. With so many banks, we will probably see a variety of approaches, but I think the direction is clear. Models are here to stay. The second important area in which the use of quantitative techniques will, I believe, increase, is the area of stress-testing. One lesson we have all learned from the Asian Financial Crisis is that the level of economic activity, asset prices and currency values can fluctuate quite widely, and this can obviously have a big affect on banks’ profitability, capital position, and, ultimately, ongoing viability. One way of trying to ensure that banks can stand up to such stresses is to conduct regular stresstesting, in other words to assess how they would be affected in hypothetical stress scenarios.

And the Lloyd’s market underlines London’s status as a world centre for insurance excellence and innovation. But the economic contribution of insurance goes much deeper. By spreading and managing risks, it increases the resilience of corporations, investors and financial institutions. It makes entrepreneurship and trade more viable. And it safeguards companies and individuals from perils they could not otherwise shoulder. From a financial system perspective, insurance companies play a vital role in the efficient allocation of capital. By matching long-term savings and investment, it finances the infrastructure essential to build our economy. The long-term perspective of insurance companies diversifies the financial system and reinforces its resilience. The contribution of the UK insurance industry can’t be taken for granted – especially in a macro-financial environment that challenges traditional business models. Challenges from the macro-financial environment Of course, relative to the recent past, the economic outlook is much improved. The UK has experienced the strongest growth in the G7 over the past year. Job creation has been the quickest on record. Inflation has fallen below target having been above for most of the past five years. With many of the conditions for the economy to normalise now met, the point at which interest rates also begin to normalise is getting closer. In recent months the judgement about precisely when to raise Bank Rate has become more balanced. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  While there is always uncertainty about the future, you can expect interest rates to begin to increase.
The euro countries are marked by the debt crisis and growth prospects have deteriorated somewhat compared to the end of last year due to new consolidation measures and a tighter credit situation. There are, however, a number of bright spots in the US economy, where the labour market is improving and the housing market is showing early signs of a positive turnaround. With regard to the global economy as a whole, the Riksbank’s forecast is that growth will continue to increase at a relatively good rate in the years ahead, after having declined somewhat in 2012. This is shown in Figure 1. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Figure 1. GDP in various regions and countries Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data 6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2 The world  -4  -4  USA Euro area  -6  -6 00  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, the IMF and the Riksbank  For some time now, an important assumption in the Riksbank’s international forecast has been that the euro countries, by implementing various measures, will succeed in reducing the most acute anxiety about the debt problems in the euro area during the course of 2012.

Figure 7 shows that the real repo rate is expected to be negative in 2012–2013; that is for a substantial part of the forecast period. If this proves to be the case, won’t there then be a risk of monetary policy being too expansionary? Won’t we perhaps risk overheating, a too high rate of inflation or an unsustainable development of household debt? This is of course not impossible, but at present I do not think that it is very likely. To explain how I have reached this conclusion I would now like to briefly summarise how I view some of the risks associated with a very low real interest rate. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 7. Low real repo rate for some time to come Real repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values 3  3 December February  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2 06  08  10  12  14  Note. The real repo rate is calculated as a mean value of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecast for the year ahead minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. Source: The Riksbank  Overheating – not a risk at present The first risk thus relates to resource utilisation in the economy and the risk of overheating. As I have already said, weak economic development abroad is having a significant impact on the Swedish economy.
Elvira Nabiullina: Review of recent inflation developments in Russia and economic outlook Statement by Ms Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Bank of Russia, in the follow-up to the Board of Directors meeting, Moscow, 14 June 2019. * * * Today, the Bank of Russia has decided to cut its key rate to 7.50 % per annum. We also revised our end-2019 inflation forecast downwards by 0.5 pp, to 4.2-4.7%. Should our baseline forecast materialise, we hold open the possibility of a further rate cut at one of the upcoming Board meetings. We assume that we may shift to neutral monetary policy before mid-2020. I will now highlight the factors we considered while making today’s decision. First. There is a stable trend towards inflation slowdown. It is attributed to the Bank of Russia’s key rate decisions including the preemptive hike in the second half of last year. We passed the inflation peak of 5.3%, slightly lower than we expected, in March. Inflation slowing down from this lower peak is overall in line with our forecast. In the February-May period, prices rose by approximately 0.3-0.4% a month, seasonally adjusted. That means that the monthly growth pace has returned to the lowest readings since last August and stands near 4% in annual terms. Annual inflation fell to 5.1% in May, and came in at 5% precisely as at the beginning of this week. This dynamics is attributed to the following factors. The effect of the VAT increase on inflation has run its course.

I hope that this will be a successful conference and all of you will have a fruitful and productive discussion. 9. Thank you very much. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Simultaneously, in 1999-2000, the Central Bank formalized the conduct of its monetary policy into monthly meetings, it increased its capacity for analysis and projections and enhanced the transparency of its policies through the publication of a four-monthly monetary policy report (with forecasts for inflation and growth) and the dissemination of communications and minutes of its monthly monetary policy meetings. It also adopted a target range for annual inflation, of 2% to 4%, centered in 3%, that would be in force indefinitely since 2001. The formalization of this inflation targeting scheme has continued in recent years, along with advances in the transparency of monetary policy. During the period 2001-2004, average annual inflation was 2.2%, and for the twelve months to September 2005 it rose to 3.9%, largely influenced by the recent oil price shock. In fact, core inflation rates are still below 3% per year. Today Chile has an IT regime in place that is proven and credible, and that includes a floating exchange rate within an increasingly deep market to provide coverage against foreign exchange risks. Also, its fiscal accounts are in order, the financial system is robust and fully integrated into the world’s capital markets. As a result, our country is more prepared than ever before to deal with external or internal shocks, and has the capacity to use a countercyclical monetary policy, which it has reinforced since the beginning of this decade. Hot topics for monetary policy under inflation targeting – in Chile and elsewhere A central bank’s tasks never end.

In the face of this exceptional health crisis, financial institutions and supervisors alike are responding rapidly and powerfully 2.1 Rapid, powerful and unprecedented responses to support the real economy during the pandemic Unlike in 2008, banks are at the heart of the solutions this time round, and not at the centre of the crisis. With their staff, whom I would like to commend, they have gathered their forces to put in place strong measures to support the real economy. That includes the rapid implementation of state-guaranteed loans: to date, 559,000 requests have been received for a total of EUR 105 billion, of which EUR 85 billion have already been granted. In France, loans have therefore been rapidly channelled to VSEs and SMEs, in contrast with the difficulties seen in Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States. Bernard Delas will come back to the measures taken by insurers, but let me just highlight the ACPR’s work on the conditions for the payment of compensation for loss of earnings, in order to better identify the challenges faced by the industry. 2.2 A responsive monetary policy Since this morning we have been in the silent period, so I shall limit myself to some retrospective remarks on monetary policy. I have often stressed that monetary policy is not made for the banks, but rather for the entire economy. And the banks have often been overly critical of monetary policy, holding it responsible for all their ills.
The Phillips curve – central but controversial Allow me to begin with the correlation that is normally called “the Phillips curve”. The name comes from the New Zealand economist, William Phillips, who, in an article in 1958, showed that there was a negative correlation between unemployment and wage increases in British data for the period 1861–1957. High unemployment tended therefore to be associated with low wage increases and vice versa, as in Figure 1. When many people compete for jobs, demand for higher wage increases falls while a shortage of labour leads to greater wage increases. 2 [16]  Wage increase  Figure 1. The Phillips curve  Unemployment  Subsequently, the Phillips curve concept was broadened to accommodate slightly different, though similar, correlations. In 1960, two American economists, Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow, both awarded the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, reformulated the curve in terms of unemployment and inflation rather than unemployment and wage increases. As there is a close relationship between unemployment and output, the Phillips curve was also often formulated in terms of the correlation between inflation and output – or, as it is commonly expressed nowadays, resource utilisation. But it is basically the same thing we want to identify, namely a correlation between economic activity and the rate of increase in prices and wages. For a time, the Phillips curve was interpreted as economic policy-makers being able to choose a combination of inflation and unemployment.

Not unexpectedly, the findings vary somewhat, but a fairly common finding seems to be that wage increases are not particularly informative when it comes to forecasting inflation. 7 The fact that wage increases have been modest for a while need not therefore signify that inflation will fall in the period ahead. Personally, I believe that both inflation and long-term inflation expectations will remain close to 2 per cent going forward, even if monetary policy is made slightly less expansionary. 7 See for instance Peneva and Rudd (2017). 14 [16]  With inflation on target – new challenges So allow me to summarise. I think this survey presents three important economic policy challenges. An important starting-point is that inflation is on target. It has now been around the target of 2 per cent in outcomes and expectations for some time. Target attainment is good. Occasional monthly variations by the odd tenth of a percentage point around the 2 per cent mark must not determine monetary policy, as I see it. And given that inflation is on target, there is scope for considering other important macroeconomic variables. The first challenge is that for several years there has been no correlation between unemployment and vacancies on the one hand and wage increases on the other. Unemployment has fallen but wage increases have remained steady at around 2 per cent as an annual rate. Inflation has indeed climbed back to target without any help from wage increases, which shows that inflation does not necessarily have to be wage-driven.
We are already observing this in the areas of life and medical policies, where partnerships with food, fitness and medical providers are motivating healthier lifestyle choices by rewarding consumers with lower premiums. Today, I wish to focus my remarks on three areas where further innovation and the boundary spanning role of the industry are critical: One, to narrow the gap on insurance coverage and protection; Two, to redraw the frontiers for greater efficiency; and Three, to expand the horizons for the future of insurance beyond protection to prevention. Narrowing the gap on insurance coverage and protection In Malaysia, protection gaps remain among at-risk segments who may not have sufficient financial buffers in case of unexpected risk events. There is ample scope to provide protection in the form of life insurance and family takaful cover to working adults in the low-income segment, as well as business interruption cover beyond fire or property damage to SMEs. This is also partly due to the way traditional insurance models are structured which are usually less suitable or beyond the range of affordability for these groups. This is where digital innovations can play a critical role. Digital ecosystems and IoT leverage on richer data and automation that can significantly help to deepen accessibility to insurance. This opens the pathway to viability for more specialised, needs-based covers, particularly to serve at-risk segments. This vision is not just an aspiration, but a clear reality.

I want to conclude by repeating my warm welcome to you all. I hope that you enjoy both the conference and your stay in Istanbul. Thank you very much. BIS Review 19/2006  5