samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Finally, let me also address the risks of overheating in some parts of the financial markets. We do not currently see compelling evidence of overstretched asset valuations at the euro area level, but we do see that real estate dynamics or high household debt levels in some countries signal the risk of increasing imbalances. Such risks also exist in the Netherlands: they relate to the continued very high level of household indebtedness and the low level of mortgage collateralisation. For this reason, we share the concerns expressed in the warning issued by the European Systemic Risk Board in November 2016 and recognise that there is a case for mitigating measures. That being said, monetary policy is not the appropriate tool for addressing local and sectoral financial risks. Rather, targeted macroprudential policies, which can be tailored to local and sectoral conditions, are the right answer.1  The way forward Against the backdrop of a recovery that is becoming increasingly solid, the benefits of our policy clearly outweigh potential side effects. Also due to the pass-through of our monetary policy, there is now more and more evidence that economic growth is firming and broadening. Incoming data confirm that the cyclical recovery of the euro area economy is becoming increasingly solid and that downside risks have further diminished. Nevertheless, it is too early to declare success. Underlying inflation pressures continue to remain subdued and have yet to show a convincing upward trend.

In the interests of effective policy, the Committee as a whole therefore has an interest in setting up some centripetal influences, without making them a binding constraint on individual members. Thus, the publications on the transmission mechanism and on the economic outlook provide a broad, common platform for readers to use when making sense of our individual pronouncements. My hunch is that this gives us greater scope for articulating our individual views without creating misleading impressions. For example, a paper I delivered last year on Money and Credit 4 went into more detail on those parts of the transmission mechanism than any collective statement, or than my colleagues might wish to go. I have found that helpful in recent months, as a few comments on the current conjuncture might illustrate. My take at our recent July meeting was, broadly, that since the May Inflation Report, the near-term outlook for inflation had deteriorated, underlining the risk that the rise in commodity prices will feed through to wage and price setting. The outlook for demand and output had also deteriorated, which in degree should help to contain those upside risks to inflation. Going forward, a key judgment will be whether the prospective slowdown will be sufficient to bring inflation back to target with the current level of Bank Rate, taking into account the tightening in some broader measures of monetary conditions. The final point is what I want to highlight in the context of my remarks today.
The importance of the sector is evident in the balance of payments data where it ranks third in terms of its contribution to the total value of exports of services at 19% for 2021, after the financial services and ICT sectors, with contributions of 32% and 23%, respectively. Concluding remarks Let me conclude by underlining the challenges for policy makers: The global inflation dynamics are currently being addressed by central banks, but the fight is far from over. Monetary policy is being utilised at a different pace in different regions, due to the differences in economic fundamentals. However, we should not forget that other policies also play a role. For instance, state support should avoid horizontal measures and instead use targeted fiscal measures,  3/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  which focus on the economically vulnerable, in order to support social cohesion but avoid undermining monetary policy measures against inflation. Finally, regarding the shipping sector, it is and will continue to be the backbone of the global economy. In fact, when talking about the importance of shipping, I cannot avoid the temptation of referring to the British writer Arthur C. Clarke, who said and I quote: "How inappropriate to call this planet, Earth when it is quite clearly Ocean". Cyprus, a tiny spot on the planet, continues to strengthen its role in the shipping sector. As a hub for ship management, ship owning and vessel chartering services, it aims to maintain and enhance further the competitiveness and prospects of the sector.

As ever, we remain in the price stability business. The open question is how we will act in order to achieve the 2% inflation target sustainably, given the substantial challenges of the moment. That is the question on which I hope to shed some light this evening. Before developing this theme, let me start by recognising what a privilege it is to gather with the ‘Money Marketeers’ here in New York tonight. I would particularly like to thank Kris Dawsey for extending the invitation to speak. I understand that the objective of this longstanding group is ‘to foster greater understanding of finance and economics among senior practitioners and developing professionals [so as] to establish greater dialogue between the public and private sector on those substantive issues that move markets’. [1] Meeting that objective is a tall order. Today, I hope to make a modest contribution in support of this collective effort by exploring some of the similarities and differences between the outlook for monetary policy back home in the UK and the outlooks in other jurisdictions.
In the Asian financial crisis, it ran its full course with the rapid price adjustments in most asset markets taking place within a period of just over a year. In Asia , there was limited potential to reduce interest rates in an environment that was vulnerable to capital outflows. The focus of policy in Asia was therefore on the resolution of the banking sector and to restore the functioning of the intermediation process. In most of the crisis affected economies in Asia , this strategy produced positive results and growth resumed within twelve to eighteen months. Financial crisis and Islamic finance In the midst of the unfolding of the global financial crisis, it is useful to review the foundation and structures of the Islamic financial system to assess its resilience in withstanding the impact of the current and future crises. In taking into account the dynamics of the crisis and the potential implications for Islamic finance, two important dimensions are key in undertaking the assessment. The first key dimension highlights the inherent ability of Islamic financial system to deal with the test of such crisis. Islamic finance is well-supported by two essential features which serve as pillars to Islamic financial transactions. Firstly, Islamic finance encourages business and trade activities that generate legitimate profits, subject to an explicit requirement of materiality and validity of the transaction. This requirement ensures that the funds are channelled into real financial business activities, reinforcing a close link between financial  2  BIS Review 145/2008  and productive flows.

There is still uncertainty about the estimate of the pandemic impact on the Russian economy’s potential, especially amid the current worsening of the epidemiological situation. Given such highly uneven trends in the economy and price movements, we will need to carry out an additional analysis of how the situation will be changing and whether we still have some room for cutting the key rate when making our key rate decisions in the future. It is hard to affirm this now. If the impact of one-off factors wanes quickly and inflation expectations reverse, it is entirely possible that there may be grounds for a further reduction in the key rate, yet this will not necessarily be the case. I would also like to emphasise that it is now crucial to maintain the robustness of the monetary policy to various scenarios. Our policy is aimed at keeping inflation close to 4% under any scenario of future developments. We are ending this year with another important step in our communication. We are starting to release our regular report ‘Regional Economy: Commentaries by Bank of Russia Main Branches’ on the Bank of Russia website. This report is prepared by our regional branches for the Board of Directors’ key rate meetings and will contain the most up-to-date information on the situation in the Russian regions. When preparing for decision-making, we usually consider economic trends in Russia in general and across regions and assess both statistics and survey findings. This helps us better understand the economic situation and its specifics.
But at the same time our policy should be both proactive and pre-emptive, to sustain non-inflationary growth despite volatile market conditions. We therefore need good financial market intelligence to keep abreast of market dynamics, shifts in market sentiment as well as large-scale capital flows that are potentially destabilising. We have had a fairly easy ride managing our exchange rate so far. However, this does not mean that the markets will never try to attack the Singapore dollar, or that if they do it will not gravely harm our economy. Strengthen partnership with industry Second, we must strengthen our partnership with industry. The industry plays an important part in all of MAS’ initiatives. MAS needs a good understanding of how the market works, whether in supervising the financial sector or in managing the exchange rate. We must always be able to see our policies from the private sector’s point of view. What does it mean to them? Does it reflect how the market really works? How burdensome will our requirements be? Can players get around our policy intent? And how do we prevent that? But however hard we try, we will still be at one remove from the market practitioners themselves. The private sector will have the best knowledge of industry developments and emerging trends. MAS would continue to tap into this wealth of knowledge through systematic and constructive consultation with industry. For a start, MAS has introduced guidelines to formalise public consultation as a standard procedure whenever significant changes in our regulatory framework are planned.

Liberalisation has brought about major changes in the local banking scene. From six local bank groups (not counting 1 POSBank) in 1997, we are now down to three through mergers and acquisitions. More importantly, the local banks have rationalised their operations, upgraded their risk management systems, and introduced new products and services. The recent housing loan price war is an example of consumers benefiting from more banking competition. But fiercer competition has also inevitably meant that small accounts enjoy fewer cross-subsidies, and have to bear higher charges and tighter usage limits. The Basic Banking Account scheme will help reassure consumers that necessary reforms will not leave them without banking services. Overall, our banks face tougher challenges than before – fiercer domestic competition, greater uncertainties in the region, more complex operations, and stronger pressure to improve returns. Perhaps the local banks sometimes look back on the good old days with nostalgia. But we had no choice. The old dispensation was not sustainable. Even the present situation may not last. Certainly, the local banks have built up their size and regional footprints. They are now the three largest banks in Southeast Asia. But will this be enough for them to hold their own against bigger 2 players? Our largest bank, DBS, is only ranked 86th in the world in terms of assets . Australia has a “4-pillars” policy that discourages consolidation amongst its major banks. But Singapore has not established its own “3-pillars” policy, and most probably cannot afford one.
Expectations regarding the United States are that it will continue to recover at a slow pace, and that moderate adjustments to the fiscal policy will take place. The downgraded outlook for Japan needs mention, due to both its relation with the Eurozone and some fiscal adjustment measures foreseen for 2014. In the emerging world, incoming data from China suggest that the slowdown of most of 2012 may be reverting. Thus, again y-o-y growth rates around 8 percent are forecast for the Chinese economy for 2013 and 2014. Growth prospects for Latin America are revised downward for this and the next two years. In this scenario, commodity prices will not change much from forecasts a few months back. In the two-year period 2013–2014, the baseline scenario foresees average prices of $ per pound of copper and $ per Brent oil barrel. Accordingly, terms of trade estimates for Chile continue to be high, but lower than they were this year (table 2). External financial markets have shown some calm these months. However, as I noted at the beginning, there is still a long way ahead before the Eurozone crisis can be resolved. The commitment of various organizations to work out a solution seems to be bearing fruit in the market’s evaluation. Anyway, the baseline scenario again considers the possibility of new stress episodes in the world markets. Such greater calm has also reflected in stock markets and currency parities. In recent months, the U.S. dollar has depreciated slightly against the main currencies.

This is why we have launched a comprehensive disinflation program aimed at reaching single-digit inflation and eliminating macroeconomic imbalances by the end of 2002. Winning for Turkey the possibility of membership in the EU and EMU is one of the main goals of our program. The ideal of independent central banks is a core issue for the countries of the European Union. We are currently in the process of examining our Banking Law to determine what must be done to bring it up to the standards promulgated by the European System of Central Banks. New modifications are planned to make price stability the principal goal of monetary policy. Debt monetization will no longer be allowed. The new Law will also grant more independence to the Central Bank. Before ending these remarks, I want to point out that introducing a single currency and reaping the full benefits of doing so is a long-term endeavor. For the time being, Turkish monetary policy is directed towards a single transparent objective, that of price stability. Price stability will serve as a link between the initial expectations about the euro area and the potential economic benefits of a single currency system. The reforms and changes executed up to now will provide a base for ambitious future policies that will broaden the area of integration and encourage the faith of economic agents that the area offers additional benefits such as greater price transparency, improved efficiency, growing investments and economic activity, and a more competitive environment.
Second, this pricing indicates that government securities began to be valued higher than central bank money when the purchases started. Investors bought government securities with lower interest rates than the rate paid on Riksbank Certificates and deposits overnight at the Riksbank. Another common idea is that the central bank adds value by providing liquidity and reducing the term premium when purchasing government securities in exchange for more coveted central bank money. This does not seem to have been the case in Sweden. Both the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office judged that the term premium was close to zero, or negative, when the Riksbank's purchases began and that the overall term and liquidity premiums subsequently became negative.12  11 However, my assessment is that the effective lower bound for the Swedish policy rate is around −0.50 per cent  or possibly slightly higher, and that the banks had not further reduced their lending rates if we had cut the policy rate below −0.50 per cent. 12 See Figure 2-3 and Figure 3 in Flodén (2016). 6 [30]  Unclear whether lower long-term interest rates are a stimulus in the Swedish economy Third, it is doubtful whether lower interest rates on longer maturities stimulates demand in the Swedish economy. Unlike the US economy, for example, the Swedish financial market is dominated by short-term interest rates.

Andrew Bailey: The outlook for financial regulation in the UK Speech by Mr Andrew Bailey, Executive Director for Banking Services and Chief Cashier of the Bank of England, on a regional visit to Edinburgh, Edinburgh, 10 January 2011. *  *  *  Andrew Bailey will become the deputy chief executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) on its creation. Thank you to Linda Urquart for inviting me to speak today and Morton Fraser for allowing us to use your venue. I would also like to thank Will Dowson, the Bank’s Agent for Scotland for the assistance that he has given me, and for the work that he does to ensure that the Bank is well connected to the UK’s most important financial centre after London. Will worked for me when he first joined the Bank as a graduate entrant, and I can assure you, drawing on that experience, Will is an excellent person to ensure that the Bank and you as our contacts in Scotland are well informed and understand the relevant developments that affect each of us, and of course that we in the Bank understand the state of the economy in Scotland and the financial sector here. It is quite right that first and foremost our Agents support the needs of monetary policy and the MPC. The information that they gather from you, their contacts, makes a real difference to the monetary policy process. There is a parallel in our responsibilities for ensuring financial stability.
As a regulator, we are pleased to witness the progress made by the industry in using Regtech to combat longstanding issues – for instance, Natural Language Processing has been adopted to control conduct risk associated with the marketing of financial products, while Supervised Machine Learning can be deployed to more accurately help AML analysts flag suspicious transactions. 14. Understanding and facilitating the technology needs of the industry improves our own setting of supervisory priorities in a forward-looking manner. The HKMA’s three-year roadmap for Suptech adoption has identified, as key areas of focus, the need for a knowledge management system to handle structured and unstructured information, and the need for capabilities to analyse granular data. The aim is to make our supervisory work more effective without placing unnecessary burdens on banks. We have begun pilot projects to assess the suitability of various solutions. Cross-border banking 15. Technology has enhanced the use of our natural geographic advantage to participate in another major transformation: the growing interaction with the Mainland financial markets, particularly in relation to the Greater Bay Area. 16. As a leading international financial centre, Hong Kong has a long and successful history of serving as a gateway to the Mainland markets. We are the world’s largest offshore hub for renminbi business. Schemes launched in recent years, such as Stock Connect and Bond Connect, have expanded opportunities for investors.

This is correct, of course, to a point: the Bank’s policy influences exchange rate developments to a considerable degree, and the exchange rate is higher than Iceland can tolerate for the long term. But the Central Bank’s high policy rate is not the source of the problem. It is a response to the conditions reigning in our economy: strong excess demand no matter where one looks, large output growth, sharp increases in purchasing power, excess demand for labour, influx of capital … the list goes on. The Central Bank decided to raise the policy rate now because inflation has risen once again, and indicators suggest that it will be higher in 2007 and 2008 than earlier projected. Demand has grown more rapidly than was expected when the Bank  2  BIS Review 131/2007  announced its last interest rate decision. Output growth is greater than estimates allowed for. Private consumption is on the upswing, and indicators imply that consumption growth will accelerate even further. Gross capital formation was greater in 2006 and 2007 than previously estimated. Real estate prices continue to rise rapidly, pushing inflation upwards as well. A shortage of labour, wage drift, growing wage costs, and rapidly rising disposable income are also contributing factors. And it appears as though some people think that, under these circumstances, the best solution is to let an inflation episode flow through the economy, as it were. But inflation wouldn’t merely flow through; it would pass into the economy and settle there.
Finally, if a sufficiently far-reaching reform of the employment institutional framework is undertaken as to turn employment around, confidence will be restored in the capacity of our country to generate robust growth once again. The favourable assessment of these reforms along with the progressive improvement in economic figures as a result of headway in the adjustment of the imbalances (the reduction in net borrowing, the resumption of moderate inflation, the adjustment of the real estate sector, the lessening of the negative contribution of the construction sector to GDP growth, etc.) will prompt a positive change in the perception of the Spanish economy and in domestic and foreign investors’ confidence. That would lower the risk premium of the Kingdom of  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Spain, providing for better financing conditions for our companies and for the public sector, and giving an additional boost to growth which has in fact ceased in the first quarter of this year to bring up the rear among the major euro area countries. To conclude, I have focused today on discussing the most important and pressing tasks needed to improve our economy. Evidently, though, there are many more that will take time, not least of which is doing everything possible to raise the level of educational attainment of our labour force.

News conference  Berne, 15 June 2017 Thomas Jordan  Introductory remarks by Thomas Jordan  Ladies and gentlemen It is a pleasure for me to welcome you to the Swiss National Bank’s news conference. I will begin by explaining our monetary policy decision and our assessment of the economic situation. I will then hand over to Fritz Zurbrügg, who will present this year’s Financial Stability Report. After that, Andréa Maechler will review developments on the financial markets. Finally, we will – as ever – be pleased to take your questions. Monetary policy decision  Let me begin with our monetary policy decision and the inflation forecast. We are maintaining our expansionary monetary policy, with the aim of stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB is to remain at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. We will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration. The negative interest rate and our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market are intended to make Swiss franc investments less attractive, thereby easing pressure on the currency. The Swiss franc is still significantly overvalued. The new conditional inflation forecast differs little from that of March. We continue to anticipate an inflation rate of 0.3% for the current year. For 2018, the forecast has fallen slightly to 0.3%, from 0.4% in the previous quarter.