samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Moreover, the shape of the underwater part can be difficult to judge by looking at the section which is visible above the surface. This is in my view a useful metaphor, because as the crisis gradually unfolded, a chain of unexpected problems came to the surface and vulnerabilities that were previously underestimated became apparent. Let us consider first the tip of the iceberg, namely the liquidity crisis. Tensions in money markets erupted in August 2007 when the US mortgage market, which was at the epicentre of a complex network of financial derivative products held globally, started to un-ravel. Liquidity in interbank markets worldwide dried up as market participants became paralysed by uncertainty. The key problem was that counterparty risk – which had hitherto remained  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  limited – suddenly increased in great proportions because the distribution of risk exposures to US subprime mortgage markets was markedly opaque. This led some market segments to partially freeze and others to close completely. This is where the second layer of the iceberg comes onto the stage. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in the autumn of 2008 triggered an exceptionally abrupt re-pricing of risks globally. It led to a very significant intensification of the financial crisis; to a temporary freeze in trade financing and a global trade decline; to a curtailment of credit and domestic demand; and, ultimately, to a severe decline in global demand and output.

While the ECB will continue to play its part and maintain price stability in the euro area, as noted the role of the central bank is limited. Keeping up reforms at the national level is particularly important, as is providing a better foundation for a stronger monetary union and hence fully implement the institutional changes that have been agreed or are currently on the table. Among the latter, I would single out an ambitious and full realisation of a financial market union comprising three legs (single supervisory mechanism, single resolution mechanism and possibly common deposit insurance as decisive for the long term viability of the euro area. Also in this case, the ECB will play its part in full. Thank you very much for your attention! BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  14  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  15  16  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  17  18  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  19  20  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  21  22  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  23  24  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  25  26  BIS central bankers’ speeches
What structural changes will occur in the domestic economy if we increase petroleum revenue spending?   What were the causes of the financial crisis? How can we prevent history from repeating itself?   How can the authorities promote sound and stable economic growth and the efficient use of society’s resources? The last question has been the subject of debate for centuries. The prevailing view has shifted over time. Crises and recessions have often spurred new recognitions and new thoughts. Anton Martin Schweigaard, the lawyer and economist who has given this lecture its name, has been referred to as “the champion of 19th century economic liberalism in Norway”. 3 Schweigaard taught statistics and economics at the University of Oslo from 1836 and was a staunch advocate of free trade. The Scottish moral philosopher Adam Smith laid the conceptual foundation for economic liberalism in his book The Wealth of Nations. According to Adam Smith, economic decisions should be left to individuals. Market forces, or “the invisible hand”, should be allowed to function. Economic liberalism was a reaction to the prevailing mercantilist doctrine of the time, where state control by means of tariff protection, monopolies and other privileges was aimed at promoting certain industries. Schweigaard also strongly criticised government control:  2  In Agnar Sandmo (2006): “Samfunnsøkonomi – En idéhistorie (Economics – a history of ideas)”, Universitetsforlaget, p. 13. 3  Wilhelm Keilhau quoted in Halvor Mehlum (2008): “Samfunnsøkonomen Schweigaard (The economist Schweigaard), Memorandum No 20/2008”, Department of Economics, Oslo University, p. 5.

This development was due to the fact that the global real equilibrium interest rate had fallen for a couple of decades to a historically low level. This interest rate cannot be influenced by the central banks, but neither can it be ignored when setting policy rates – this is so as it is the distance between the policy rate and this normal interest rate that determines how expansionary or restrictive monetary policy is. As the real interest rate has fallen, the policy rate has had to be cut to ever-lower levels for each business cycle. When the policy rate has hit the lower bound, there are limited possibilities to use monetary policy to influence demand and inflation, and my point was that fiscal policy therefore needs to take on a more active role. The situation now is different, at least for the moment. Inflation is high and the lower bound for the policy rate is no longer a restriction on monetary policy. However, there may be other complications where fiscal policy can contribute to a better economic outcome. I shall return to this. It is also important to point out here that it is doubtful whether the global economic playing field has been substantially altered in the longer run by what has happened over the past year. In particular, it is difficult to see that the global real  3 [15]  equilibrium rate would have been significantly affected.
Ethics and compliance/values and rules  The nomenclature that is used in compliance to describe the company officer responsible for compliance has changed, and the change in nomenclature is a clue to revealing a material, substantive change. Twenty years ago, we called this officer the “compliance officer”, and I emphasize the singular. Over several years the title morphed, as compliance programs  1  In re Caremark International Inc. Derivative Litigation, 698 A.2d 959 (Del.Ch. 1996). BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  developed and compliance jobs multiplied, both with respect to subject matter expertise and the types of skill sets needed to make compliance programs “take”. Consequently, companies found that the compliance officer turned into the chief compliance officer, because in major companies, it took a village to get compliance done. Compliance, you see, turned from singular to plural. More recently the title has again changed. In many companies today, the title is chief ethics and compliance officer, or CECO, reflecting a salutary trend on the part of many companies to integrate ethics and compliance. Why is this happening? In my view, it is happening in recognition of the fact that it is easier to have an effective compliance program in a company that nurtures a strong ethical culture. In a recent speech, Daniel Tarullo, a governor of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, accurately observed that “culture” is a “somewhat contested academic concept”. Yet, the evidence is growing that an ethical culture produces tangible benefits, including making compliance more effective.

The natural rate of interest (R*)  The second concept of the interest rate I want to look at today is the natural interest rate. The natural rate of interest is quite an old concept, first posited by Knut Wicksell at the end of the 19  th  Century as the rate of interest at any given time that keeps the price level stable. Wicksell argued that if the market rate exceeded the natural rate, prices would fall; if it fell below, prices would rise. The economics discipline then went on an intellectual journey over the 20  th  Century, first largely abandoning the natural rate  concept in favour of Keynes’ advocacy of fiscal policy for demand management and then returning to monetary policy, albeit in the form of the famous quantity theory of money. By the start of the 1990s, however, the difficulties of targeting the growth in monetary aggregates were clear and central banks turned to interest rates as the principle instruments of policy. Nowadays, we tend to think of the natural rate not so much as the rate that would hold prices stable at any given time but, given frictions in the economy and lags in the impact of monetary policy, as the interest rate that will close the output gap over the monetary policy horizon. However, unlike the trend real rate, the natural rate is a shorter-term concept.
This would make it more difficult for monetary policy to counteract recessions in the future. If average inflation is low, the nominal average interest rate will also be low. And the lower the interest rate is in normal conditions, the less scope there is to lower it before it reaches its lower bound. A more general problem is that the inflation target acts as a benchmark for price and wage formation – it forms what is usually called a nominal anchor in the economy. When economic agents have a collective picture of how prices will develop in the future, it becomes easier to plan for the long term. The absence of a nominal anchor could also lead to not just inflation varying more, but also output and  16 See, for example, Duy (2017) and Summers (2017). 11 [20]  employment. Assume that a negative shock impacts demand in the economy, causing inflation to fall. If there is uncertainty about the inflation target, inflation expectations may also fall in the slightly longer term. This will cause a rise in the real interest rate, i.e. the interest rate corrected for inflation expectations, if the nominal interest rate remains unchanged. The higher real interest rate amplifies the effect of the original negative shock on demand and weakens the economy even more, as it is the real interest rate that affects companies’ and households’ investment and consumption decisions. In a corresponding way, a positive shock to demand can make inflation and inflation expectations rise.

We therefore explicitly look at many  2  BIS Review 40/2002  other indicators and analyses in the context of our two-pillar strategy, and we do not try to hide the complexity of monetary policy-making behind the production of a single Governing Council forecast. The projections reflect the expert judgement of Eurosystem staff and we prefer to keep this distinct from the judgement of the Governing Council regarding the overall assessment of the risks to price stability. Therefore, our decision to clearly separate the production of the projections from the analysis of the Governing Council is fully transparent as it honestly reflects the decision-making process within the ECB. As regards communication, we have always taken an approach that ensures a high level of transparency and clarity of our message. Our monthly press conferences are key in this respect. The timeliness and detail of our communication is without comparison. At the same time, we have not changed our view regarding the publication of minutes. We fear that, given the multi-country context in which the Governing Council works, published minutes - or a procedure in which dissenting views of Council members are published (even without mentioning names) - could lead to undue pressure on national central bank governors to deviate from a euro area perspective. This cannot be in the interest of the euro area, no more than if the Governing Council were to end its approach of speaking with one voice.
This will allow their tech-savvy customers’ systems to process payments without human intervention. •  BNY Mellon has built an internal online API catalogue for services such as pricing, calendars, market and reference data, etc. This has helped its developers to significantly reduce steps to build new innovative apps. More efficient data submission Another potential benefit from APIs will be a reduction in the cost of regulatory data submission. Currently, data submission to MAS is still partly manual. We will improve this process. Our vision is for data to flow seamlessly in both directions between systems in the financial institutions and MAS. This will reduce the ongoing cost of regulatory submissions. This is not a trivial exercise, given the volume and diversity of financial data. Well-crafted APIs are essential for this vision to work. MAS will closely engage the industry to ensure that these APIs are clear, simple to implement, and extensible. Conclusion I spoke earlier about the telegraph. Despite the breakthrough in world travel and communication enabled by the telegraph and other technologies, the globalisation of the late 19th century soon faltered and reversed. There is a lesson here. Technology alone does not make connections or create better understanding: it merely gives us the means to make those connections. •  What is more important is the spirit of openness and collaboration. •  Common standards and seamless data sharing are in this spirit.

•  They will enable us to maximise the benefits of digital and mobile technologies – reap enormous cost efficiencies and extend our reach and understanding. And it is this spirit of openness and collaboration in innovation that will help create a Smart Financial Centre. We have only just begun. Thank you. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches
And changes in the competitive structure of labour and product markets can influence the impact of slack on wage and price pressures, causing the Phillips curve to change slope over time. 2  See the Governor’s Open Letter to the Chancellor (Bank of England, 2015b). 3  Bank of England (2015b). 4  Google Scholar lists more than 3000 citations for Phillips’ original article (Phillips (1958)). BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Chart 10 plots the historical relationship between wage growth and unemployment in the UK over the period since 1856. Although noisy, it suggests a negative relationship between the two, with an average slope of just under ½. In others words, a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate has, on average in the past, lowered wage growth by around half a percentage point. A somewhat clearer window on this long-run Phillips curve relationship is provided by looking at distinct monetary regimes: exchange rate targeting regimes under the Gold and dollar standards (1856–1970); discretionary monetary policy regimes without central bank independence (1970–1997); and inflation-targeting regimes with independently-set monetary policies (1997 onwards). Chart 11 plots the Phillips curve relationship over these windows. The introduction of discretionary monetary policy regimes, without independence, caused an outward shift in the Phillips curve and a shift up in wage and inflation expectations. That is consistent with a loss of monetary credibility.

Let me also say that we are experiencing a period of market nervousness, a period where we see volatility in markets in general and re-appreciation of risks. We think that these developments in financial markets deserve attention. Shifts in market sentiment need careful monitoring. We will continue to pay great attention to the developments in the market over the period to come. I am now open to questions. BIS Review 89/2007  1
There are several reasons: HLIs are perceived as a highly risky industry which is not subject to supervision. HLIs are perceived as non-transparent and opaque. HLIs use complex financial instruments and employ non-traditional investment strategies, partially based on complex mathematical models. HLIs are active shareholders, as the recent example of ABN Amro showed. HLIs are part of the glamorous world of high-net-worth investors and high-salary investment managers. And, probably most important, in recent years, the importance of HLIs has grown tremendously. Why is the risk they pose to financial stability perceived as being so high? HLIs account not only for a significant share of trading volume in some market segments, especially complex ones, they are also important counterparties and clients which provide a significant source of revenue for large international banks. This raises the question of whether HLIs are indeed a threat to financial stability and, if so, whether there is a need for regulation. These are the two questions we will try to answer in this paper. To begin with, let me point out what central banks understand by financial stability and why we consider financial stability to be important. In our view, a financial system should be able to absorb shocks affecting financial institutions (e.g., banks) and/or links between institutions (e.g., payment systems) without jeopardising the system’s vital functions such as financial intermediation, i.e. the transfer of funds from savers to investors, monitoring debtors and transporting payments between economic agents.

During  BIS Review 1/2008  1  this “French period” of your career, you acquired an extraordinary knowledge of our country, its language and culture. Since then, you have always shown deep and unswerving friendship towards France. You have many French friends, some of whom are with us today. The French Government recognised your exceptional contribution to Franco-Japanese friendship by awarding you the “Commander of the Legion of Honour” – the highest of our national honours. Let me say how happy and moved I was to be present, in Tokyo on 25 November 2005, at the ceremony where you received this decoration from France’s Ambassador in Japan. I would add that I myself am fascinated by Japan and its culture. For over 25 years I have been to your country almost every year. I also have dear friends there, some of whom have been kind enough to join us today. This mutual attraction for one another’s cultures has helped us, Governor Fukui, to build a strong personal relationship over the course of our meetings at the international institutions, in Basel and Washington in particular. This doubtless explains why we agreed straightaway, when invited by the diplomatic authorities in our respective countries, to involve our institutions in the celebrations of this 150th anniversary. If you look, on the website of the Japanese Embassy in France, at the schedule of events celebrating this occasion – some of which will be quite exceptional – we see that the arts and culture have pride of place.
The Financial Stability Board is overseeing efforts to improve data, including on global banking interconnections, shadow banks and OTC transactions data.23  21  Jorgenson et al (2010), Reinsdorf and Yuskavage (2010). 22  Arthur (2011). 23  Financial Stability Board / International Monetary Fund (2011). 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Yet the full benefits of this deeper and richer array of financial network information will only be realised if these data can be simply aggregated within and across firms. That calls for common data describers and standards. Recent legislation recognises that. In the US, the Dodd-Frank Act created the US Treasury’s Office of Financial Research (OFR), which has as a core objective data standardisation.24 In Europe, the new European Markets Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) embeds common data standards across the EU.25 The roots of these legislative initiatives were grown during the September 2009 G20 summit.26 Out of this, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) initiated a programme which culminated in a report to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in October 2010. This set out a vision of common standards which would allow global financial data aggregation.27 Like Berners-Lee’s 1989 memo, it was vague but exciting. But in the reports that followed, two crucial ingredients were identified: a Legal Entity Identifier (or LEI) and a Product Identifier (or PI).28 Though these acronyms are new, the principles underpinning them are not. LEIs are effectively the nouns of a new financial vocabulary, naming the counterparties to each financial transaction.

A one standard deviation rise in a country’s “economic complexity” has been found to increase its long-term growth rate by a remarkable 1.6% per year. If these numbers are even roughly right, this product atlas is a fantastic navigation device. It could help guide countries towards investing in their most profitable industries. Because it also shows how closely product types are linked, both within and across countries, product and country complexity maps might also be used to help chart a course for industrial policy and international trade. The web is a higher-dimension network than the global supply chain. Navigating it is more complex still. Early in its life, that seemed likely to retard its progress. In the early 1990s, web  16  Chandran (2003). 17  Hausmann et al (2011). 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  search engines relied on the content of each page to determine its relevance. As the web grew, simple keyword search was being overwhelmed by the web’s size and complexity. By the mid-1990s, search engines were lost in navigation. In 1996, two Stanford students, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, devised a solution.18 You are all now familiar with its name. It was called “BackRub”. Page and Brin saw the links between websites, rather than the content within them, as the key to navigating the web. Using that basic intuition, they created a search algorithm which calculated a ranking of the relative importance of every web page in the global network. This ranking is known as PageRank.