samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Today, the ISM released its nonmanufacturing index, which registered the highest level in nine years. These reports echo a string of others – including the Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions released yesterday by the Federal Reserve – that underscore the healing that is taking place in the U.S. economy despite our having what is, in truth, a dysfunctional and counterproductive fiscal and regulatory environment. All we need now is for the fiscal and regulatory authorities – Congress and the executive branch – to unleash the animal spirit of business that is well nourished with the feed of cash and ready to roll. Wodehouse’s perspective I happen to share a common bond with Indians: I have long been a reader of P.G. Wodehouse.4 In his book, Big Money, published in 1931, he has a wonderful passage in which a young lad nicknamed Biscuit describes the woman he has fallen in love with: “… when I think that a girl can be such a ripper and at the same time so dashed rich, it restores my faith in the Providence which looks after good men.” Be it Providence or the Fed, the American business community is at present a “ripper” – it looks darned good – and is “dashed rich”. We are poised for a healthy, sustainable expansion. The men and women in this room see it in Texas. I trust they will see it in the whole of the United States.

Richard W Fisher: The Texas Jagannatha (with reference to Indian Prime Minister Modi, a Hindu Goddess and Wodehouse’s Big Money) Remarks by Mr Richard W Fisher, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, before the US-India Chamber of Commerce, Dallas, Texas, 4 September 2014. *  *  *  The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. Thank you, Ashok (Mago). I am so honored to have been invited to join Ambassador (S.) Jaishankar this evening to celebrate the U.S.-India Chamber of Commerce and its many distinguished awardees. Mr. Ambassador, I am delighted you are here in Texas tonight. I am going to give you a few statistics in a moment that I think will make readily apparent the reason for this large audience and why so many Indian entrepreneurs and professionals come to Texas. Then I am going to give you a snapshot of where the U.S. economy is at present and what we are grappling with at the Fed. But first, with your indulgence, I want to briefly speak of the relationship between our two great countries, India and the United States. Time to enhance the U.S.-India working relationship The logic of an enhanced strategic relationship between my country and yours is crystal clear, beginning with a harsh geopolitical reality: You live in a tough neighborhood and need us; we, in turn, need all the friends we can muster in your geographic sphere.
•  The risks to financial stability are nowhere near pre-Crisis levels, but they bear close watching. We must not repeat the mistakes of the past. 11 But there is as yet no consensus on how to secure financial stability and, in particular, what role, if any should be played by monetary policy. 12  There are three broad approaches to these questions. •  The first is to stick to the status quo. Monetary policy remains focused on price stability and no recourse is made to macroprudential policy beyond the use of capital buffers to pre-empt insolvencies. •  In the second approach, monetary policy explicitly takes account of financial stability in addition to price stability. •  Under the third approach, monetary policy remains focused on price stability, while financial stability is secured with the help of macroprudential policy. 13 I will keep my remarks on the first approach brief as it is well-known and is still the dominant practice in most central banks today, especially in the advanced economies. Under this inflation targeting approach, monetary policy will not try to respond to credit cycles or asset bubbles unless they have a demonstrable impact on inflation outcomes. •  As Lars Svensson puts it, flexible inflation targeting “remains the best-practice monetary policy before, during, and after the financial crisis”. •  John Taylor, who will address us this evening, provides a more rule-based characterisation of this approach through the Taylor rule.

•  He finds that if monetary policy in the US had been appropriately configured to macroeconomic outcomes in the 2000s, the housing boom would have ended in 2003 instead of 2006 and that mortgage debt levels would not have risen so high. 14  1  2  Let me now take up the second and third approaches in more detail. The phrase is taken from Eichengreen and Mitchener’s 2003 BIS working paper on “The Great Depression as a Credit Boom Gone Wrong”. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Monetary policy: getting in all the cracks 15 The intellectual underpinning for the second approach is based on the insight that monetary policy has the potential to affect financial stability through the “risk-taking channel”.2 •  Jeremy Stein puts it succinctly – “Monetary policy is fundamentally in the business of altering risk premiums”. 16 Loose monetary policy can heighten vulnerabilities in the financial system by altering both the perception of risk and the tolerance for risk. •  In conventional monetary policy, lower policy rates boost incomes and profits, and enhance asset and collateral values. This reduces banks’ estimated probability of defaults and losses, leading to greater leverage and risk-taking. •  In unconventional monetary policy, large scale asset purchases by central banks depress returns along the entire yield curve. This provides asset managers the incentive to take on more risk, often in a herd-like fashion.
A possible international slowdown in the coming two years could lead to growth failing to reach the level indicated in the main scenario of the Riksbank’s Inflation Report. Another question that affects the Riksbank’s monetary policy considerations is developments in the property market. Exaggerated increases in asset prices can lead to subsidence in the future. With a larger percentage of debt in relation to income and with shorter periods for fixing interest rates on loans, it is probable that monetary policy would have a stronger and faster impact on household consumption. Moreover, the Riksbank’s tasks include not only safeguarding price stability, but also financial stability. This is a further reason for closely following developments in indebtedness in the economy and price trends in the property market. In the event of economic shocks it might be necessary to weigh price stability, real economic stability and financial stability against one another; it might not be possible to achieve all of the objectives at the same time. 5/7  Future challenges for monetary policy Some factors that have monetary policy significance do not change according to the Swedish business cycle. This includes the effects of globalisation. As I mentioned earlier, globalisation and increased competition from low-cost countries like China and India have contributed to lower inflation by way of import prices, increased competition and greater pressure for structural change. This makes demands not only of monetary policy, but also structural and fiscal policy.

Long-term interest rates are also very low, companies in general have very good liquidity and good profitability. It can also be noted that in connection with the Riksbank cutting its repo rate in June as a result of weaker economic growth than expected at the beginning of the year, some voices were raised warning that the low interest rates could lead to an excessive credit boom and overly high house prices. The consideration that has to be made between growth in demand over the coming two years and the risks linked to high indebtedness, for instance, are still relevant and current, and I will return to this shortly. Monetary policy, productivity and jobs One consequence of the high level of productivity is that employment has not improved very much, despite several years of good growth. It is not likely that the link between economic activity and employment has disappeared but - and this has been clear during the current economic upturn – the relationship may very well vary from one economic cycle to the next. We have produced larger quantities but using fewer employees. One possible reason for the high productivity growth is earlier investment in IT, in particular. Another is that the stiffer competitive pressure, which among other things originates from the internationalisation of the economy, has forced companies to make their production more efficient. This is essentially positive, as productivity gains contribute to increased income, investment and growth, which should in the long term lead to new job opportunities.
Implementation of the investment policy  Our investment policy has not fundamentally changed with the new Act. The monetary reserves continue to constitute core assets for monetary policy. They allow the National Bank to exert an influence on the Swiss franc exchange rate in exceptional situations and are available as an internationally accepted means of payment in a crisis situation. This presupposes a minimum degree of liquidity of these assets. Moreover, monetary reserves enhance the credibility of monetary policy and foster confidence in the Swiss franc. The security of these investments and growth of the monetary reserves in step with the development of the Swiss economy is an important consideration in this context. This is why monetary reserves ought to provide an adequate return, while taking into account the monetary policy restrictions. It is the aim of our investment policy to strike an optimal balance between the criteria of liquidity, security, and return. We assess and regularly review the National Bank’s liquidity requirements - i.e. its need for easily realisable and hence easily accessible assets - on the basis of our experience and taking due account of the current situation. Given the Bank’s large portfolio holdings in US dollar and euro government bonds, the liquidity requirements are currently more than met. This creates a certain amount of leeway for investing in instruments that are less liquid but generate a higher return. The investment criterion “security” must be seen in the context of the monetary reserves as a whole.

Financial Integration and Inclusive Development: A view from the Mediterranean countries  Central banks, financial inclusion and digitization: Harnessing technology for inclusive growth  Intervention of Mr. Abdellatif Jouahri Governor of Bank Al-Maghrib  Madrid, December 13, 2019  Governor of the Banco de Espana, President of the European Institute of the Mediterranean, Deputy Secretary General of the Union for the Mediterranean, Dear friends and colleagues Ladies and Gentlemen,  First of all, I would like to thank the organizers, particularly the Governor of the Bank of Spain, Mr. Pablo Hernandez de Cos, and the President of the Executive Committee of the IEMed, Mr. Senén Florensa, for inviting me to participate in this conference. Taking part in the Mediterranean meetings organized by the Bank of Spain has become, for me, a tradition to be preserved, all the more since we are united by a cooperation agreement. It is also my pleasure to speak alongside panelists, both colleagues and friends, on a topic of particular interest to us from each side of the Mediterranean. Inclusive development issues have been one of the key concerns for Moroccan public authorities for several years now. With regard to financial inclusion in particular, which engages us as a central bank, we have, together with the Ministry of Finance and stakeholders, just finalized and started implementing a national financial inclusion strategy, whose preparation has progressed for a few years now.
The wall of money created in the advanced economies has led to extremely low interest rates globally. This, coupled with stronger economic conditions, has led the private credit-toGDP ratio in Emerging Asia to rise from 97% in 2008 to 122% in 2012 – this is higher than the level seen at the start of the Asian financial crisis. In short, the advanced economies are develeraging, and the Asian economies are releveraging. In and of itself, this is not a problem. In fact, the divergence in leverage is to be expected in the context of global rebalancing, with advanced economies restraining consumption and Asian economies boosting domestic demand. But it is the pace and composition of Asian releveraging that is cause for concern. While much of the rapid loan growth has supported productive economic activity, there have also been substantial flows to asset markets, especially real estate. Low interest rates and abundant liquidity have contributed to accelerations in property prices and sharp increases in household debt. •  Residential property prices in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore have increased by 52% on average since 2009, while nominal wages have risen by only 13%. •  Household debt as a percentage of GDP has trended up in these countries, with mortgages accounting for a significant 70–80% of consumer credit. Inflation in asset prices and build-up in leverage have important implications not just for macroeconomic stability but also financial stability. I will come back to this later. Domestic context: supply constraints and economic restructuring Next, the domestic context.

Second, the objective of the IMF should be to find ways of making the least costly fiscal adjustment in terms of growth, while strengthening its recommendations on the prevention of this type of shock. This brings me to focus on the second type of objectives: the objectives of prevention and better resilience to terms of trade shocks. The first priority to improve prevention and resilience is to create sufficient countercyclical fiscal leeway, by limiting public debt, or even by accumulating budgetary reserves. In this regard, controlling the public payroll, which is the most dynamic item of expenditure in times of growth in many poor and vulnerable countries, as well as improving the efficiency of public spending, are essential. Consideration should also be given to setting up fiscal rules on the basis of deficits excluding commodity-related receipts, adopting stricter debt ceilings for the public sector and creating an adequate savings buffer for countercyclical purposes, taking into account the scale and length of commodity price cycles. In countries exporting non-renewable commodities, in particular oil, this savings buffer must be even more substantial since it must aim to cover not only the decline in the value of receipts but also part of the decline in the value of reserves. The second priority concerns the diversification of the economy. Industrial policies based on sectoral subsidies or tax expenditures are not viable in the event of a fall in commodity prices and make the policy of diversification pro cyclical.
Urban Bäckström: Financial cycles Speech by Mr Urban Bäckström, Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, at the Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum on Crises, Contagion and Coordination: Issues for Policymakers in the Global Economy, Philadelphia, 22 November 2002. *  *  *  First I want to express my thanks to the organizers for inviting me to this very interesting conference. Let me especially thank Tony Santomero for everything he has done in his previous capacity in inspiring and assisting us at the Riksbank over the years as an academic adviser. I wish you, Tony, every success as president for the Philadelphia Fed and as an important policy maker here in the U.S. I think one can say that central bankers around the world have never before had such a central and well respected position as they have had during the past decade. Their task seemed to be well defined and the job to deliver price stability has worked rather well. Much of the mystique that typically surrounded central banks has gradually disappeared. Openness and transparency have become the key words of the day. Moreover, research concerning monetary policy has made good progress during the past decade. The world of central banking has indeed undergone positive changes. However, it would be most dangerous for us, central bankers, to just sit down and relax in the belief that all the important problems in the field of monetary policy have been resolved and need no further consideration.

In addition, unprocessed food prices have continued to exert some upward pressure on overall price increases in recent months. Excluding the more volatile HICP components of energy and food, the rate of increase in consumer prices in March remained at 1.1% - i.e. unchanged from the rate observed in February and marginally lower than that recorded at the turn of the year. In conclusion, at this point in time the general outlook for price stability remains favourable. Although the lower effective exchange rate of the euro and the rise in oil prices may lead to some upward pressure on headline HICP inflation in the coming months, the current economic situation is likely to contribute to containing this upward pressure. At the same time, current monetary developments and other available indicators do not point to inflationary risks over the medium term. On the basis of this assessment the Governing Council decided to keep the ECB’s interest rates at their current levels. In addition to reviewing the main monetary, financial and other economic indicators, the Governing Council considered a report prepared by the ECB’s Banking Supervision Committee on “The effects of technology on the EU banking systems”. The report assesses the extent to which technological developments have taken place and are expected to occur in the EU banking systems, the main categories of banking risks affected by these developments and the strategic responses that EU banks are devising. The Governing Council agreed to publish the report, which will be made available in due course.
The Advent of Cryptocurrencies In the depths of the global financial crisis, the coincidence of technological developments and collapsing confidence in some banking systems sparked the cryptocurrency revolution. Its advocates claim that a decentralised cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin, is more trustworthy than centralised fiat money because:  -  Its supply is fixed and therefore immune from the age-old temptations of debasement;  -  Its use is free from risky private banks; and  -  Those who hold it can remain anonymous and therefore free from the ravenous eyes of tax authorities or worse still law enforcement. Some also argue that cryptocurrencies could be more efficient than centralised fiat money because the underlying distributed ledger technology cuts out intermediaries like central banks and financial institutions and allows payments to be made directly between payer and payee. 14,15  13  The Bank operates the Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) service and infrastructure that holds accounts for banks, building societies and other institutions. The balances in these accounts can be used to move money in real time between these account holders. This delivers final and risk-free settlement. 14 Whereas banks hold records of most fiat money and are entrusted to ensure its validity, with digital currencies, the ledger containing all transactions by all users is publicly available.

The Foundation of Better Payments So while our research on a possible future CBDC will continue, we’re more excited by the opportunities to transform digital payments now. In particular, the combination of the Bank’s overhaul of RTGS and new technologies promises a world where payment systems can better meet societal demands for fully reliable, real-time, distributed peer-to-peer transactions. RTGS is already pretty awesome, settling over £ of payments in real time each day, while eliminating settlement risk and with an extremely high degree of resilience, all at a cost – to direct participants – of less than one ten millionth of the value of the average payment. But RTGS is also the same age as most of you and so we are renewing it. 30  What could this rather technical sounding development mean for you? More than you might think. 29  See Broadbent, B., (2016), “Central Banks and Digital Currencies”, a speech given at the LSE https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2016/central-banks-and-digital-currencies 30 See “A Blueprint for a new RTGS service for the United Kingdom”, May 2017. 13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  13  Currently when you pay for your burger and beer in the pub, or your books in Blackwell’s, you probably use a debit card, a credit card or digital wallet on your phone. These need to be routed through the card provider’s network.
Greater market access will be an essential instrument for improving the economic conditions of those living in poverty and I welcome the recent initiative taken by the Fund and the World Bank aimed at supporting the Doha round. At this stage, the global momentum towards trade liberalization must continue effectively, yet there is reason for concern over the way that the current international trade negotiations are proceeding. Progress has been slower than was previously hoped, especially in light of the disappointing result of the WTO meeting in Cancun. Another worrying aspect is the trend of bilateral trade agreements instead of multilateral agreements. To support low-income countries, the industrialized nations should reduce their overall levels of support for agriculture and textiles and direct the remaining subsidies away from trade-distorting price support towards income support. The advantages of trade liberalization are greater than the risks associated with it. Reforms in these areas will benefit both the industrial and the low-income countries. There might, however, be temporary or transitional difficulties as increased liberalization can entail a reallocation of labor between sectors. Governments should be ready to inform and educate their citizens and prepare safety nets to make the transformation more acceptable, both domestically and internationally. High-income countries ought to be prepared to assist developing countries in such undertakings. Low-income countries must also open up their markets in order to increase the volume of trade between each other as well as with industrialized countries. Bilateral and regional trade agreements have become increasingly common in recent years.

However, the multilateral route is a better channel for delivering the dynamic benefits of increased global economic integration. Bilateral agreements can fragment and complicate multilateral negotiations such as the present WTO round. Moreover, small and underdeveloped economies are more likely to be left out and their ability to participate in the global economy is therefore disadvantaged. We encourage the Fund to continue to use surveillance in promoting open world trade. 2  BIS Review 42/2003  Concluding remarks Ladies and gentlemen, improving the world economy is a task that demands the participation of every nation. We must press forward with structural reforms, promoting good governance, increasing transparency, and harmonizing standards. This task must also include efforts to integrate the lowincome countries into the global economy. The current circumstances provide good reasons for addressing these issues. The International Monetary Fund has been at the center of world economic cooperation since its establishment. The Fund should continue to play a crucial role in strengthening the areas I have emphasized through its surveillance and its lending activities. BIS Review 42/2003  3