samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In addition, lower long-term rates would reduce the cost of capital for businesses, thereby fostering higher levels of capital spending for any given economic outlook. In considering the limits to balance sheet expansion, there are two constraints – one major and one more minor. The first constraint is the risk that the balance sheet expansion might cause inflation expectations to become unanchored, leading to higher risk premia. This risk is presumably greater in a period in which budget deficits are high, as they are today. 6  BIS Review 127/2010  If exit concerns were to rise as purchases increased, then a rise in inflation risk premia would offset at least some of the expected fall in interest rates. In contrast, the more credible the ultimate exit strategy, the less likely it is that inflation risk premia would go up and the more effective purchases would be in lowering long-term rates. Also, the more credible the ultimate exit plan, the more confident investors would be about the Fed’s willingness to do what is needed to accomplish its objectives. This is important because it would help stabilize longerrun inflation expectations at levels consistent with the dual mandate. The FOMC should be able to assure investors that it has both the means and the will to exit when – but not before – the time is right. That is because the Federal Reserve has the tools to control financial conditions and credit creation even with an expanded balance sheet.

Wage growth last year was the highest since 2011, with a further rise expected this year. The outcome of this year's wage settlement so far suggests that annual wage growth will be slightly higher than we projected in March. Higher wage growth means higher business costs and could lead to higher prices for domestically produced goods. The krone depreciation will generate higher costs for imported goods ahead. Chart 6: Further rate rise likely in June The Committee assesses that a higher policy rate is needed to dampen inflation. Since the publication of our March projections, overall economic activity has been broadly as expected. Excluding energy prices, consumer price inflation has also moved as projected. Higher wage growth and the krone depreciation will contribute to keeping inflation elevated ahead. If the krone remains weaker than projected or pressures in the economy persist, a higher policy rate than envisaged earlier may be needed. The future policy rate path will depend on economic developments, but we will most likely raise the policy rate again in June, at which time we will also present updated forecasts for the Norwegian economy. 2/2  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
So it really is a pleasure for me to be here today, to have the chance to “get out” and yet still be close to home. Dual mandate The Federal Reserve is charged by Congress with fostering economic conditions consistent with maximum employment and price stability. These two objectives are commonly referred to as our “dual mandate.” The Fed is different from most other central banks in that it has an explicit dual mandate. Although many central banks are instructed to mitigate disturbances to the real economy, most have a mandate to achieve only one goal – maintaining price stability. Usually, this is not an important distinction, since monetary policies that promote price stability are generally consistent with those that support full employment. However, in the rare occasion when tension arises between these two goals, policy must be formulated with careful consideration of the relative performance of one objective against the other and of the risks to the outlooks for both policy goals. Keeping this in mind, I’ll turn now to a discussion of my outlook for the economy and then offer my views on how best to chart a course for monetary policy. Real output gap Four years ago the U.S. economy entered what developed into the deepest downturn since the Great Depression; indeed, many are now referring to 2008–09 as the “Great Recession.” During recoveries from severe recessions, we usually see solid job and output growth, with the improvements in one fostering gains in the other. We are not seeing this today.

An increasing number of households experienced problems meeting their payment obligations, which led to problems in the US mortgage market. The  2  BIS Review 162/2009  problems then spread quickly to other countries with banks that had invested in the new financial products. These banks were not able to estimate the contagion risks in full, as the risks in these products were difficult to assess and even the credit rating agencies underestimated them. Uncertainty over the size of the problems led the banks to tighten their lending, which in turn impaired consumption and investment. Inadequate supervision and regulation With regard to the supervision and regulation of the financial markets, there has clearly been a lot left to desire in several areas. Supervision in the United States in particular appears to have been inadequate. The trade in OTC derivatives 2 exploded and many new, complicated financial instruments were introduced onto the market. This made the banks’ counterparty risks larger and less transparent. Nor were the financial supervisory authorities fully aware of the contagion risks in these new instruments. The complex financial instruments created in the search for yield when interest rates were very low did not comprise a problem as long as the situation on the financial markets was stable, but when the turbulence increased, it became very difficult to understand and evaluate these new instruments.
Chairperson, some of the challenges faced by women entrepreneurs regarding access to finance have been specifically identified as follows: •  Lack of collateral/ discriminatory property rights;  •  Financial illiteracy;  •  Lack of awareness of development finance;  •  Lack of financial confidence;  •  Lack of appropriate products;  •  Uncertain business climate;  •  Inadequate financial skills;  •  Lack of banking facilities;  •  Cumbersome application procedures and complicated forms to complete;  1  2  A Report on the Study Tour to Tanzania and Rwanda, 20–26 June, 2011, Gender in Development Division. BIS central bankers’ speeches  •  High cost of finance. •  Poor gender disaggregated data which limits market information on what women want and need  •  Most businesses are informal and in lower value areas  Bank of Zambia response The Bank of Zambia has responded by putting in place measures to maintain a stable macroeconomic environment which have resulted in significant reduction in inflation; downward movement in interest rates; and a fairly stable exchange rate. The Bank of Zambia is also the lead implementer of the Financial Sector Development Plan on behalf of the Government of the Republic of Zambia. As you may be aware, the Zambian government formulated the FSDP as a comprehensive strategy for addressing challenges in the Zambia financial sector.

Can households pay for consumer goods with debit cards, cheques or credit cards, or do they have to carry significant amounts of cash with them? Can workers in urban areas transfer money to their rural families by simply sending an SMS, or do they have to carry it with them on a dangerous bus ride? Particularly in Africa, where distances are vast and security is often a concern, the availability of non-cash payment instruments can increase the returns to economic activity for businesses and households. Figure 3 shows that today, most economies in Africa are still strongly cash based. Both in sub-Saharan and northern Africa, more than one-third of funds available for immediate payments are in cash form. The notable exception is South Africa where the level of non-cash money is above 80%, and thus similar to that of Switzerland. Developments over the past 15 years show a promising picture for other countries on the continent as well. Since 1995, the share of non-cash money has increased from 50 to 60 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, and 55 to 65 percent in North Africa. This mirrors the increased availability of electronic payment instruments available to businesses, but also to households.
If one were to use SARON in such cases, interest payments would theoretically have to be made daily, which is impractical. The NWG has recommended using average SARON values (‘compounding approach’), and has proposed several possible options. Market participants are currently working on implementing this recommendation. Let me conclude this section by emphasising that SARON is establishing itself as the leading reference rate for financial products. It is the responsibility of market participants to systematically complete the remaining transition work and prepare themselves for the postLibor era. As they do so, they can draw on the recommendations of the NWG, whose activities the SNB supports. The faster SARON is integrated into financial products, the smoother the replacement of Libor will be. The creation of a liquid, SARON-based yield curve is fundamental as it will enable our money and capital markets to continue running efficiently. This is very important not only for our country’s financial system but also for the transmission of the SNB’s monetary policy. SNB joins network dedicated to ‘greening the financial system’  To conclude, I would like to say a few words about our decision to join the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). As climate change is a global phenomenon, institutional and technical knowledge must be analysed and exchanged globally. The SNB joined the NGFS, which now comprises 36 central banks and supervisors, in April 2019. The network provides a forum in which members can conduct in-depth analysis and seek answers to some key questions.

Moving on to the second aspect – the importance of using SARON more actively in financial products and developing a liquid, SARON-based yield curve: To date, Libor has been widely used in financial products, however market participants are now working hard on transitioning to new, SARON-based products. These include derivatives, especially interest rate swaps, which can be used to hedge against changes in interest rates. 1 A SARON-based interest rate swap market was set up back in 2017. Trading activity in this market remains low, however it is expected to pick up once SARON becomes more widely used in cash products (such as loans, mortgages and capital market instruments) and investment products. The SARON1  An interest rate swap allows a contractually agreed, fixed interest rate (e.g. for a period of five years) to be exchanged periodically for a floating interest rate. The floating interest rate portion of the contract is determined by a reference rate. Page 2/3  Berne, 13 June 2019 Andréa M. Maechler  News conference  based yield curve will then be able to take over the role of the current, Libor-based yield curve. Yield curves are important benchmarks for market participants and serve as the basis for pricing medium and long-term financial products. And, finally, the third aspect – how should interest payments be calculated for a period of three months, for example? Libor provided a three-month rate which could, among other things, be directly applied to the calculation of interest payments on money market mortgages.
Amongst the fundamental strengths are, first, our ample foreign currency reserves: at the moment they are the third largest in the world, after those of Japan and the mainland of China. These reserves enable us to tackle unexpected shocks. Second, we have a rule-based monetary system characterised by currency board arrangements that work effectively under modern day financial technology. Our linked exchange rate system has a high degree of credibility. Third, we are very BIS Review 2/1999  –4–  committed to maintaining open and liquid markets. Fourth, we pursue a prudent fiscal policy and have no external debt: the government sector, which is very small, is not a drag on the economy. Fifth, as a consequence, our economy, operating largely under free market discipline, is flexible and responsive to market forces. And, sixth, we have a sound banking system, which is strong, solvent, and able to cope with the tight discipline and interest rate movements necessary under our currency board arrangements: strengthened by some thoroughgoing reforms in the 1980s, the banking sector has weathered the current storms extremely well. Taken together, these fundamental strengths have enabled us to adjust to the new regional realities of the last eighteen months without the shock of a currency collapse: we have been able to maintain the external value of our currency while keeping it freely convertible, but we have also improved our competitiveness through the ability of the many other variables in our economy to respond quickly and flexibly.

Until now, the U.S. dollar has played a dominant role in world trade quite out of proportion to the size of U.S. trade flows. This is particularly the case in Asia, where, despite Japan’s strong commercial and financial influence, the yen has failed to play a major role as an anchor. While the Hong Kong dollar has been well served by its solid link to the U.S. dollar, less solid commitments to the dollar in other economies have proved to be expensive and disruptive. Thus, despite the pre-eminence of the U.S. dollar, the Asian region as a whole lacks a viable exchange rate anchor. This is a problem that has to be addressed, and we would do well to look into it, especially once the current crisis has subsided. We have benefited from our own peg to the U.S. dollar, and other countries could similarly benefit from links to key currencies when they are in a strong enough position to make such links fully credible. The introduction of the euro will challenge the supremacy of the dollar elsewhere in other hemispheres by introducing a second currency pole in the global currency system. It will also offer another solid investment option to Asian central banks. The time may come when we might want to consider the possibility of our own Asian currency - perhaps something along the lines of an Asian Currency Unit - that would form an anchor currency for our region.
Just as the press requires us to use clear language in a transparent, timely and fast communication, we must also stress the importance of the media in the economic agents behavior. We certainly do not ask you to restrict or limit the information, nothing could be further from the spirit of free speech we adhere to, but we do request you to be rigorous in your reporting. Overinterpretation of decisions made by the Bank or overemphasis of transient economic indicators that do not mark a trend are situations that regularly influence public sentiments and even behavior. It only remains to me to recommend professional rigor and an adequate appreciation of the evolution of the economy, which are the same demands we at the Bank make upon ourselves. Chile requires a specialized press that looks at economic events through the perspective of time and avoids being led away by sensations or climates. The economy progresses in long, slow cycles even though the day-to-day events may at times overwhelm us. We have seen tremendous progress in the Chilean economic press. The specialized journalists have played an outstanding role in contributing to a better informed society, better equipped for decision-making. As in all fields, there is always room for further improvement. From our side, we are always available to contribute to explaining or advising on complex phenomena.

1 Speech by Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Banking Seminar organized by De  Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam, 11 March 2019 2 16 supervisory agencies and 2 international financial organization were interviewed for the purpose of this  survey. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
In the past, the major part of the chain of manufacturing and services used to be located in a given country, which meant that, from the monetary policy perspective, the domestic demand was of great importance, and in particular — the size of output in relation to its potential level i.e. the so-called output gap. The impact of the global economy, on the other hand, was observed mainly due to changes in the terms-of-trade i.e. the ratio of export to import prices, which in turn was affected by, among others, commodity prices and changes in external demand. Nowadays, inter alia as a result of globalisation of production and services, the role of the domestic output gap in explaining inflation has decreased significantly, as shown by the BIS research 6 . As in the case of the model applied by the NBP in forecasting inflation, the role of the output gap as a factor that determines inflation is much smaller than it used to be. In old books on macroeconomics inflation is treated largely as a local development, i.e. dependent in a great measure on domestic factors (such as the domestic output gap and inflation expectations). Today, inflation is becoming increasingly less local, and in turn, becomes more and more dependent on global factors, i.e. the relationship between global demand to global supply. Research that analysed the course of inflation in 22 OECD countries between 1960 and 2003 has shown that 70% of inflation volatility may be explained by a common factor 7 .

Due to the expected significant number of applications for exemption from the contingency mechanism, a simplified procedure for consulting EBA is envisaged until the end of 2019. The Bulgarian National Bank has established a procedure for prompt handling and examination of applications for exemption. This will enable the account servicing payment service providers, which comply with the requirements of the Regulation, to be exempted from obligation prior to the 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  entry into force of the requirement for providing a fallback mechanism on 14 September, 2019. Strong Customer Authentication According to the provisions of Commission Delegation Regulation (EU) 2018/389 – by 14 September, 2019 the payment service providers in the country must fully implement the requirements for strong customer authentication in respect of all electronic payment transactions. The focus is on the use of at least two independent authentication elements from different categories. The two elements should refer to one of the categories of knowledge (e.g. static password), possession (SMS OTP or generated by token device) or inherence (e.g. fingerprint scanning). Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2018/389 exhaustedly stipulates the cases for which payment service providers are allowed not to supply strong customer authentication. Where a payment service provider wishes to benefit from any of the exemptions, it will have to notify BNB in advance, indicating the particular payment service to be exempted.
Many securities depositories chose to participate because they saw great potential in T2S in terms of cutting settlement costs, fostering competition and generating new business opportunities. But overall, T2S had the potential to bring about a more integrated financial market and thus to benefit all. Second, the governance structure of the project is special as national central banks, securities depositories and market participants formed a partnership with one objective – to launch T2S successfully. It is this unique collaborative effort, mentioned by some of you tonight, that has ensured the success of the T2S project, a project of such size and scale that it has changed the industry completely. Finally, the project is unparalleled in that it has led the industry to impose new rules and procedures on itself. And let’s be honest: this does not happen often. That is why many believe that the post-trade harmonisation agenda is the greatest benefit of T2S. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The launch of T2S is a great achievement. With T2S we have a big story, and I am confident that the story of its development will continue to be a winning one. Of course, there are many types of stories – some rooted in fantasy, some in fiction, and some in reality. The T2S story is a reality, and to symbolise this, a 3D printer is installed in the corridor that you will pass through several times tonight. I invite you to keep an eye on it and see how the T2S logo will materialise.

As we have seen, movements in the dollar/mark exchange rate were magnified as far as the Swiss franc is concerned in the past, but are much dampened since the birth of the euro. When the euro depreciated against the dollar at first, the Swiss franc did so too, but to a much lesser degree. And later, when the euro recovered against the dollar, the franc appreciated as well, but again to a lesser extent. In order words, our effective exchange rate has been less affected, the movement of the dollar being offset, at least to some extent, by a movement of the euro in the opposite direction. It seems to me that this phenomenon has benefited not just Switzerland, but also many other countries with their own independent currencies, such as the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Norway. I would be very curious to know what your experience has been in this respect. This evolution might not last. Perhaps it is the outcome of chance, but it has been sufficiently persistent over the past few years to be noticeable. Maybe one day some bright graduate student will write a thesis on this topic, and confirm or falsify my hypothesis, but in the meantime let me outline why I think that there are some good reasons to believe that the stability of the international monetary system has been enhanced by the creation of the euro.