Thus, in the third quarter, activity, employment, and income figures outperformed expectations in many countries, although there are still major differences across sectors, with trade in tradable goods contrasting with trade in services (Figure 2). China has driven the recovery, with several indicators already matching or exceeding their pre-pandemic levels. This has contributed to the dynamism of international trade in goods, which has been surprisingly resilient and has positively affected the prices of commodities, especially copper, which has consolidated above USD 3 per pound, and even going as high as USD 3.5 per pound, which had not been seen since early 2013. In any case, even if the worst of the economic crisis is behind us and the vaccine becomes a reality, fiscal and monetary support will still be necessary to ensure a less burdensome outcome for the productive system and ample sectors of the population. Chile has echoed the global trends in terms of the evolution of the pandemic and the performance of the economy. The reduction in infections has allowed a significant fraction of the country to exit the stricter confinement stages, giving way to increased mobility and the reopening of several economic activities (Figure 3). However, the remaining sanitary constraints, which escalated after last Monday’s announcement, mean that sectors such as services and construction continue to be badly affected, delaying recovery. In contrast, manufacturing has already reached its pre-pandemic activity levels and trade has even surpassed them (Figure 4).

In part, this is due to better prepared health systems and the adaptation of businesses and households, increased testing and tracking capabilities, and the ability to focus on those services more intensive in human interaction. Meanwhile, in the last few weeks, important progress has been made in the development and distribution of Covid-19 vaccines, with several of them in advanced stages and having reported a high degree of effectiveness. In the event of early clinical approval, which is already happening in some countries, laboratories would be able to produce and deliver doses to vaccinate about half of the world’s population by the end of 2021, with several countries achieving herd immunity over the next year. This process will occur at different speeds around the world, depending on laboratory production, government contracts, the effectiveness of international coordination, distribution and delivery capacity, and people’s willingness to be vaccinated. Consequently, the uncertainty regarding the magnitude and speed of the impact that vaccines will have on economic recovery is still significant. This depends on how soon restrictions will be lifted, whether people will adjust their behavior, and whether the confidence of economic agents will recover. Therefore, the impact of the vaccine on activity will be more significant only as from the second half of 2021. In any case, the international financial markets have reacted positively to the news about the vaccine, exhibiting higher asset prices and lower risk indicators. All this is occurring as global economic activity continues to recover from the pandemic’s shock.