samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This in turn will increase the demand for Turkish Lira, while decreasing the demand for foreign exchange. Provided there are no major exogenous shocks to the system during the program period, we expect the Central Bank’s net international reserves to remain at comfortable levels. The floors established for net international reserves for the four quarters of 2000 are $ 12 billion, $ 12.5 billion, $ 12.5 billion and $ 13 billion respectively. If for any reason net international reserves threaten to fall below these levels, the Central Bank will take measures needed to counter these trends. The exchange rate band mechanism will provide greater flexibility for net domestic assets after the second half of 2001. And as a result of this greater flexibility, the contribution of monetary policy to the attainment of the inflation target will grow as the influence of monetary policy on interest rates increases. Finally, I should explain the changes we are making in the reserve requirement system. We are beginning to implement reserve requirements more flexibly in order to make it easier to meet banks’ temporary liquidity needs and enable them to manage their liquidity more efficiently in the course of their operations. 3  BIS Review 9/2000  A sound banking system is an essential prerequisite for the efficient implementation of monetary policy. This is all the more true under a rule-based monetary policy regime. We announce the rules of the game clearly to the players in the expectation that they will follow them efficiently and fairly.

But central banks and, beyond, financial intermediaries cannot substitute for adequate – and sometimes difficult – public policies. The green transition does hold risks – including for inflation –, but it also offers economic and financial opportunities, as new technologies gradually reach scalability. The sooner we start, the more positive (or the less negative) the economic balance will be. 2/ Let me now turn to the second major transformation underway: the digital transformation. Here, Europe is still lagging behind the United States and China. It is of the utmost importance to remain at the technological frontier in order to reap the benefits of innovation in terms of productivity and growth, as the winner often takes all. Beyond the economic fallouts, it is also a matter of strategic autonomy.
This is unambiguously preferred to point A, with greater stability in both the financial system and, in particular, the wider economy. But could we do better still by having monetary policy assume explicit responsibility for safeguarding financial stability? If we augment this monetary policy rule to take account of financial stability factors, by having interest rates respond to credit spreads, we move to point C. This has the benefit of improving financial stability relative to the conventional monetary policy case. But this comes at the cost of destabilising somewhat the macro-economy. It is unclear whether point C dominates B in a welfare sense. In other words, having monetary policy meet both macroeconomic and macro-prudential objectives involves a trade-off. Once we add an explicit macro-prudential instrument to the equation, however, this trade-off disappears, or at least is lessened. In particular, let’s add a regulatory-set counter-cyclical capital buffer for banks, the like of which is now part of Basel III. Used in tandem with optimal monetary policy, this moves the economy to point D. This involves both greater macroeconomic and financial stability than the alternatives. On the face if it at least, it is welfareimproving. Although the model used is specific, the policy lesson appears to be a general one. Having two instruments (monetary and macro-prudential) leads to an improvement in macro-financial stability. Two policy hands beat one when there are two policy objectives.

The Basel II framework makes it clear that a bank should be allowed to provide its own estimates of the risk components for the calculation of its regulatory capital requirement only on the basis of a sound internal control and oversight framework. From our experience, this represents the primary challenge for some banks as they may focus only on the quantitative aspects of adopting the IRB Approach, without taking necessary account of the qualitative aspects. Without a sound internal control and oversight framework, these quantitative tools might be employed improperly and generate incorrect information for credit and management decisions. As such, the drawbacks brought by the use of sophisticated tools could outweigh the benefits. Thus, validation standards for the internal rating systems adopted by banks will need to place as much emphasis on the qualitative as on the quantitative aspects of validation. Data issues are another critical challenge facing banks and involve both quality and quantity aspects. On the quality side, it appears that the awareness of data integrity generally remains low on the management agenda. Some banks may still have the misconception that data management only requires an IT system to keep the numbers, and does not require senior management attention. In fact senior management need to take the lead in improving data quality. Apart from making available the necessary IT infrastructure and resources, this includes establishing an appropriate data management program as well as policies, standards and control mechanisms, and from time to time, emphasising the importance of data quality to the relevant personnel.
Support for new and growing firms One issue the Kalifa Review raised that we are working to address is the “scale up” challenge; that is, how successful start-ups can scale up into larger companies that play a more significant role in sectors of the UK financial system that still remain relatively concentrated. This is a challenge the PRA, along with the FCA, has been seeking to address for some time. We are working to actively improve how we tailor our supervisory approach to support growing firms.15  We provide support and proportionate supervision to start-up banks. This is a more resource-intensive supervisory approach than we deliver to larger, more established banks, and we provide a relationship manager and team that get to know each start-up bank and keep a close eye on emerging risks. We set out our expectations, and the sort of progress we expect firms to make, in the Supervisory Statement published on 15 April.16 Furthermore, at the same time we re-launched the New Banks’ website which provides a lot more information around the standards we expect at authorisation and beyond. The PRA is also looking at creating a ‘Strong and Simple’ regime for smaller banks as well as potential changes to Solvency II.17 This will help enable a dynamic and diverse banking sector while maintaining firms’ resilience. For example, as part of that we will look to simplify the way we approach certain rules such as the approach to capital.

And last but not least, GDP growth has been relatively robust and the margin of spare capacity in the economy has been disappearing at the same time as inflation has been trending towards target. Many observers would consider this to be evidence that monetary policy has hardly been on the wrong track. Yesterday’s announcement that future interest rate movements would depend on wage developments in the labour market seems to have drawn some attention. But there seems to be some misunderstanding about what this means. Over time – but not necessarily at every moment in time – wages in the labour market as a whole – but not necessarily for each group – should rise by an amount equal to the inflation target plus productivity growth. How much this is depends, then, on productivity growth. At present, productivity growth appears to be low – about 1%. This means that the scope for wage increases consistent with the inflation target is 3.5%. What that means for wage settlements depends on the degree to which wage drift can be contained. Some groups could receive larger pay rises than this, but then others would have to have smaller increases. Sometimes there are grounds for this. Then it is important to bear in mind that this is a long-term relationship.
Recession or instability at home is often quickly exported. Equally important, growth and stability abroad makes all our jobs easier. This means that there are externalities in the work we do, so that more effective fulfillment of our domestic mandates helps to bring us to a better place collectively. Ensuring global growth and stability is and will remain our joint and common endeavor. This is what Terry Checki has worked for over his distinguished career. We have been very fortunate for his service and must carry the mantle forward. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

The baseline assessment would include the environmental risk of a bank’s lending and other businesses. In this Phase, the HKMA will need to work with the industry to develop a ___ (a) common framework, drawing on the latest international standards and best practices. The HKMA will also, in collaboration with the relevant international bodies, such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC), provide capacity building and training programmes to banks in Hong Kong for better understanding of the green principles and methodology in undertaking the baseline assessment. Phase II – once we have completed the baseline assessment of banks in Hong Kong in Phase I, the HKMA will engage the industry and other relevant stakeholders in a 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  (b) consultation on the supervisory expectation or requirement on Green and Sustainable Banking going forward. The key objective of this Phase is to set tangible deliverables for Hong Kong’s banking industry to become “greener” and “more sustainable”. Phase III – once the deliverables have been set, the next Phase is Implementation, (c) Monitoring and Evaluation. The success of this Phase depends crucially on appropriate measurement of the “greenness” of the banks and the timely disclosure of progress or the lack of it. 4. With the support of the banking industry, I expect Phase I could be completed within around 12 months’ time from now. Responsible Investment 5. In the past few years, there has been a significant shift in mind-set amongst asset owners on Green and ESG investments.
Jeremy Stein at the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors has expressed it as the advantage of monetary policy being that it "gets in all of the cracks”.27 It is also worth pointing out that in countries such as Norway and Canada they are fairly explicit in saying that the policy rate has a role to play in this context – and this is despite the fact that they have come further in the macroprudential field than we have.28 It remains to be seen where we eventually will end up when it comes to this issue. My own opinion is that we will probably not be able to have a completely strict division of labour between monetary policy and macroprudential policy and that the policy rate cannot be ruled out as a tool for counteracting financial imbalances. There will probably always be situations where macroprudential policy needs the support of a monetary policy that at least to some extent “leans against the wind”. But we still do not have any certain answers and I believe it is wise to keep all doors open. A formative stage Let me round off. There is no doubt that we are internationally in what one might call a formative stage with regard to macroeconomic policy in general and monetary policy in particular.

Given the undeveloped nature of Zambia’s financial system, it is evident that the diversification and strengthening of financial institutions, instruments and markets must be regarded as a prerequisite to further economic development. In this regard, the  10  BIS Review 99/2008  Government approved the Financial Sector Development Plan provides a framework for focused development of the financial system. Bearing the foregoing, the BoZ continue to closely monitor the financial condition and performance of the financial sector. References 1. FinMark Trust (2005). Measuring Financial Access in Zambia: Summary of Topline Findings, FinScope™(2005) Survey. 2. GRZ (2004). Financial Sector Development Plan for Zambia. 3. Honohan P., and T. Beck (20070. Making Finance Work for Africa. World Bank, Washington DC. 4. Jefferies. K. Enhancing Access to Banking and Financial Services in Botswana. Appendix I containing contact details of banking and other institutions in Zambia can be found on Bank of Zambia’s website www.boz.zm. BIS Review 99/2008  11
This has started to feed through to domestic food inflation, which came down from 3.8% y-o-y in January to 2.3% in June. Recently, there has been spike in global corn and soya bean prices due to a drought in US. But we do not expect a broad-based surge in global food prices in coming months, and so domestic food inflation should remain relatively contained for rest of year. Third, domestic wages. The 6% increase in domestic wages last year passed through quite strongly into a variety of services costs earlier this year. We can expect some continued pass-through of wage costs for the rest of this year, but at a more restrained pace compared to early this year. Like Core Inflation, Headline Inflation – or inflation in CPI-All Items – is also expected to be lower on average in the second half of the year compared to the first half. But, unlike Core Inflation, CPI-All Items inflation will remain elevated at well above the historical average. As mentioned, MAS is narrowing its forecast for CPI-All Items inflation in 2012 from 3.5–4.5% to 4.0–4.5%. This largely reflects two factors. First, imputed rentals on owner-occupied homes are expected to remain high compared to a year ago. This essentially does not involve an actual increase in spending by households. Imputed rentals on owner-occupied homes are based on actual rentals but, as you know, only a small segment of the population rents their homes. We expect continued tightness in the housing rental market, especially in the HDB segment.

The figure we watch most closely is Core Inflation, which excludes the costs of accommodation and private road transport. We were concerned when Core Inflation came in at 3.1% in the first quarter of this year. This reflected high commodity prices and the pass-through of strong wage growth in 2011. In the second quarter, Core Inflation moderated to 2.7%. It is likely to ease further and approach 2% by the end of the year. This is not far from the historical average of 1.7%. There are several factors driving moderation in Core Inflation during the course of the year. First, oil prices. Global oil prices were at $ per barrel in the first quarter of the year. They are now around $ For the rest of the year, they should remain in the $ range on average, barring deterioration in the geo-political situation in Middle East. The easing of global oil prices is already passing through to prices of domestic oil-related items. Let me give a couple of examples. Electricity tariffs for households came down by 2.5% in July, the first reduction this year. Likewise, petrol pump prices have fallen for three consecutive months, by a cumulative 9% from March. Going into the second half of the year, domestic oil-related prices are expected to keep largely stable. Second, food prices. Global food commodity prices, as measured by the UN FAO Food Price Index, were 5.4% lower in June compared to beginning of the year.
So, one may suspect, if and when banks feel ready to charge for the use of cash, this is likely to give a big kick to the card market. On the supply side, costs are obviously important. Clearly, the technological development of IT and telecommunications has helped in cutting costs. Economies of scale and network effects are other important supply factors. Economies of scale imply that cost per transaction fall when the number of transactions increases. Network effects imply that the number of terminals that accept a particular card greatly affect the utility of the user. The larger the number of payment terminals that a bank can install, the happier will be the users and the larger the share of the card payment market the bank will have. Economies of scale and network effects both increase the incentives for co-operation between card issuers in establishing common standards and communication between systems. In Sweden and in the other Nordic countries as well, banks have a long tradition of cooperation in using common infrastructure and implementing common standards, perhaps more so than in many other regions. This is likely to have contributed to the rapid expansion of the card payment market in the Nordic countries. There are some country specific differences, though. As should be expected, the number of payments per capita increases with the number of terminals installed (fig 8). At least for Sweden, there seems to be remaining positive network effects that may further expand the market.

For the time being, there is no point speculating on when interest rates will be cut. On the contrary, as you know from the voting we published, some Bank Board members are still thinking about raising rates further – our monetary policy meeting is next Wednesday. A strong koruna played an important role in the turnaround in inflation. We adjusted the monetary policy strategy in July 2022. We stabilised interest rates and verbally supported a strong koruna. In a speech at Masaryk University in November 2022, I presented the conditions under which our koruna would be strong again (Michl, 2022). Although we did not raise the CNB's repo rate further to more than 7%, we managed to have a record-strong currency. The average monthly exchange rate of the koruna to the euro was the strongest ever in April 2023, reaching CZK 23.44 to the euro (for comparison, it was CZK 23.55 to the euro in July 2008). I will always be proud if we have a strong koruna during my mandate. In 2023 Q1, the strongest-ever koruna together with the highest interest rates since 1999 created the tightest monetary conditions in more than twenty years (a more detailed analysis is available in our blog post published on the CNB website, see Adam and Michl, 2023). The strong exchange rate made imports cheaper and tightened monetary conditions also for exporters. The large ones in particular had not been influenced by our monetary policy too much until then, since they were taking out loans in euros.
Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament Introductory statement by Mr Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, before the Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, Brussels, 23 February 2019. * * *  Introduction Madam Chair, Honourable members of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to start by congratulating all of you on your election, and you, Madam Chair, on your recent appointment as Chair of this Committee. It is a pleasure to appear before this Committee in this new legislative term and before my term as ECB President comes to an end. The legitimacy of the ECB’s independence, as enshrined in the EU Treaties, crucially relies on our accountability. And the Treaties have conferred this Parliament with a central role in holding the ECB accountable. Hearings before this Committee play an essential role here. In my time as President, I have found them to be extremely beneficial. When I appeared before the ECON Committee for the first time, in December 2011, the euro area was rife with financial instability; it was falling into a second recession, which eventually led to sustained disinflation and, at times, heightened risks of outright deflation.1 The euro area has come a long way since the crisis, in part thanks to the support provided by the ECB’s monetary policy.

On that day, all 57 outstanding issues of Exchange Fund Notes, with a total value of more than $ billion, will be so listed. I very much hope that this joint effort by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company and the HKMA will successfully stimulate retail interest in our Exchange Fund Notes and, more importantly, retail interest in debt instruments generally. Let me now take this opportunity to do a bit of advertising. The Exchange Fund Notes are, of course, issued for the account of the Exchange Fund. Furthermore, all issues of Exchange Fund paper are fully backed by foreign reserves. For every $ worth of Exchange Fund Notes there is $ held in the Exchange Fund. Investors therefore need have no concerns about the ability of the Exchange Fund to repay this debt. At this time, the Exchange Fund Notes also attract a yield higher than that for US dollar Treasury securities of corresponding maturity. Interest income from holding the Exchange Fund Notes will be exempt from profits tax and trading in the paper will be exempt from stamp duty. The Stock Exchange has also offered to lower the brokerage commission on these products. For a community that has always had a keen and very wide participation in the stock market, the convenience of being able to buy and sell the Notes on these terms, through the brokers on the Exchange, speaks for itself. So much for the advertisement.
In other words, there was a trade-off between inflation, on the one hand, and employment and output, on the other. There did seem to be something to this proposition in the short run. But in the 1970s, economists and governments alike came to recognise that higher inflation did not, in the long run, lead to higher output and employment; rather it led simply to even higher inflation. Inflation accelerated if economic activity was run at too high a level. In other words, if we plot a graph with inflation on the vertical axis and unemployment on the horizontal axis, we should expect to see a vertical line. In the jargon of economists this is known as a vertical Phillips curve, showing that there is no trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the long run (shown in Chart 1). This conventional wisdom has governed macroeconomic policy in almost all advanced – and indeed emerging market economies – ever since, and underlies our inflation targeting framework in the United Kingdom. That’s the theory. Does it work in practice? Well, if you plot a graph of inflation against unemployment in the UK since the adoption of inflation targeting at the end of 1992, you find that far from being vertical, the Phillips curve has in fact been completely horizontal (see Chart 2). The conventional wisdom appears to have been overturned. Chart 1.

We have witnessed a remarkable improvement in the functioning of short-term credit markets and an impressive recovery in the stability of large financial firms. While a whole range of government actions contributed to this recovery, giving financial institutions greater confidence about their access to funding, and that of their counterparties, was most likely a crucial step toward achieving stability. Moreover, the exit from these facilities has been quite smooth. At their peak, these facilities provided more than $ trillion of credit to the economy. Today, the remaining balance across them is around $ billion. It is impressive that the Fed was able to remove itself from such a large amount of credit extension without creating any significant problems for financial markets or institutions. That success largely reflects the effective design of those programs, as most were structured to provide credit under terms that would be less and less appealing as markets renormalized. This design worked incredibly well, as activity in most of the facilities gradually declined to near zero, allowing the Fed to simply turn them off with no market disruption. The success of these facilities should be judged by the outcomes they produced for financial market functioning, and not by the financial returns they generated on the Federal Reserve’s books. However, there are several reasons why the Fed might be expected to profit from this type of lending under most circumstances.