samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But a bank’s goal should be to provide service to its customers through financial intermediation, as Mark Carney has explained so eloquently. 6 Christine Lagarde sees this as a  4  Cf. E. Gerald Corrigan, Are Banks Special? Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Annual Report, January 1983, (“[T]he presence of the public safety net uniquely available to a particular class of institutions also implies that those institutions have unique public responsibilities and may therefore be subject to implicit codes of conduct or explicit regulations that do not fall on other institutions.”). 5  See Thomas C. Baxter, Jr., Reflections on the New Compliance Landscape, Remarks at “The New Compliance Landscape: Increasing Roles – Increasing Risks” Conference, July 24, 2014. 6  See Mark Carney, “Inclusive Capitalism: Creating a Sense of the Systemic,” Address to the Conference on Inclusive Capitalism, May 24, 2014. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  question of animating purpose – of “telos” – and I agree. 7 Similarly, the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, has called for financial institutions to reset to the first principle of service, playing a role in the world that contributes to “human flourishing.” 8 If you don’t believe me, listen to the Archbishop: It is possible to do good and do well at the same time. And remember one of attributes that attracts the best and the brightest to an organization is the prospect of quality work.

Jean-Claude Trichet: Structural reforms for the European economy Speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the Forum ABC, Madrid, 15 February 2008. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, I would first like to thank very warmly the organisers for inviting me to speak here today in the context of the series of conferences organised by the “Forum ABC”. In my intervention I would like to share with you my views on “Structural reforms for the European economy” and on the importance such reforms have for job creation and productivity growth. This is indeed a major policy issue and, I believe, a topic of great interest to everyone here too. After all, high employment and high productivity levels are the key preconditions for a high level of real income and living standards in our societies. If we look back over the last decade, employment growth has been strong in the euro area and even more so in Spain. However, over the same period, labour productivity growth decelerated significantly in the euro area and in Spain in particular. A key challenge therefore is how to simultaneously achieve solid employment and productivity growth. It is well-established in the economic literature that structural reforms and institutions are among the main factors that explain the different performance of per capita income growth across countries over the medium to long term.
European firms were lagging behind US firms in terms of foreign direct investment and they are now catching up. European firms have entered a “globalisation process” whereby they aim to reach a global size through acquisitions. BIS Review 61/2000  6  Conclusion Allow me to conclude. The euro area has adopted a sound macroeconomic policy and has embarked upon a fairly comprehensive programme of structural reforms. These reforms will still take time to be fully completed. But they are well underway and have already boosted economic growth, job creation and corporate restructuring. This move has been triggered by the creation of a monetary union and a vast unified financial market. I am impressed by what has been achieved during the past years and the National Central Banks as well as the ECB are strongly encouraging governments and businesses to foster structural reforms in the future. The euro exchange rate is clearly misaligned relative to euro area fundamentals (robust domestic growth, steady implementation of the single market, abundant domestic savings, healthy external accounts). This is the reason why we consider that the euro has a strong potential for appreciation. The Eurosystem, which is the guardian of the euro on behalf of the people of Europe, knows that our fellow citizens want the single currency to be at least as solid as their previous national currencies. In France, to give but one example, 96% of the population want the euro to be at least as solid as the franc.

I also have a number of specific remarks and views to make on the aspects of East Asian financial markets to be discussed in the next sessions. But for the benefit of time, I think I should leave them for later opportunity. For now, let me close by saying a little bit about the role of policy. Government policies, in my view, have played an important role in the current development of East Asian financial markets. The key policy, of course, has been the implementation of financial sector reform which has resulted in a much improved financial system, especially the banking sector. Policies have been directed at developing the region’s capital markets too, especially the bond market. Policy coordination has also been strengthened to increase regional financial integration and to develop a policy coordination framework that can help the region deal better with the likelihood of a crisis. I am referring here to the CMI or the Chiang Mai Initiative and its surveillance process. But while policies have been important, the process of financial market development in East Asia has essentially been left to the market, in the sense that the process is basically a market-driven one. But on account of what is perceived to be a slow progress, question arises whether policy should do more. My view is that the process should continue to be market-driven and not policy-driven. But there are areas that government policies can do more, especially on issues that involve efforts on a region-wide basis.
Included alongside the two already mentioned are failure of climate-change adaptation and biodiversity loss.1 Thus, the transition towards a carbon-neutral economy is necessary, calling for the mobilisation of financial resources to facilitate the process. Funding the fight against climate change is one of the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which set a target of $ billion a year to be mobilised by the developed countries starting in 2020, with a view to increasing this amount before 2025. In terms of public investment, the Sustainable Europe Investment Plan, which forms part of the European Green Deal, envisages the mobilisation of at least € trillion in sustainable investments through the EU budget over the coming decade, to advance towards the goal of ensuring a carbon-neutral economy by 2050. 1  See WEF (2023). The Global Risks Report 2023 18th Edition, January. In the EU's recovery plan Next Generation EU (NGEU), 37% of the € billion Recovery and Resilience Facility is being spent on climate-related objectives. Moreover, an overall climate target of 30% applies to the total amount of expenditure from the long-term EU budget for 2021-2027. The European Commission will issue green bonds to finance part of the NGEU funds. According to the first report on the allocation of funds,2 823 projects will be financed for almost € billion, around one-third of the total NGEU funds. Clean transport and infrastructure will be the biggest recipients of these funds (accounting for 55.6%), followed by energy efficiency (33.4%).

But to develop and manage such an app, a bank has to assemble a highly skilled and diverse technology team: product owners – who create the vision for the app and work with business and tech teams to deliver it; business analysts – who work with customers to understand their requirements; system and security architects – who design the app based on its security, data, and infrastructure requirements; API designers – who develop APIs that provide and pull data from various financial institutions onto the app, taking into consideration data security; UI/UX designers – who design the look and feel of the app to provide a good user experience, such as minimising the number of clicks to perform an action; so ware developers – who write the programmes that underpin the functionalities of the app and seamless integration across its diﬀerent components; testers – who ensure that the app performs according to the requirements; production supporters – who monitor the performance of the app, manage incidents, and ensure timely resolution of issues; and data analysts – who analyse app usage statistics and customer feedback, in order to recommend improvements to the app. Let me catch my breath here. The multitude of technology talent needed to develop and manage just this one single product is staggering. The technology workforce in our financial sector is an estimated 25,000; 30% more than in 2014. Singaporeans make up just over one-third of this workforce.
Employment has been under-estimated in both cases, that is, the outcomes have on average been higher than in the forecasts. Productivity has also been under-estimated both one and two years ahead. Productivity has a bias of around one tenth one year ahead and just under seven tenths two years ahead. We have thus made a relatively large under-estimation of productivity growth two years ahead.8 With regard to the annual change in inflation measured as the CPIX, the forecasts have on average been almost three tenths lower than the outcomes one year ahead. However, the forecasts two years ahead have on average been two tenths higher than the outcomes, which can be regarded as a minor deviation. What conclusions can we draw from this? The bias is relatively small for most of the variables. There are no clear signs of any systematic errors in the forecasts, with the possible exception of productivity. The rate of increase in productivity has been systematically under-estimated during the period. However, it should be added that none of the variables has any statistically significant bias. Comparison with other forecasters The study has also compared the Riksbank’s forecasting errors with the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) and Consensus Forecasts panel, a compilation of forecasts from a number of different forecasters. It is clear from the study that the Riksbank’s forecasts for GDP growth have been among the best compared with other participants in the Consensus panel (Figure 11).

[4] Faberman, R J, Mueller A I and Sahin, A (2022), “Has the Willingness to Work Fallen during the Covid  Pandemic?”, NBER Working Paper, 29784. [5] IMF (2023), “Staff Discussion Notes: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism”,  The International Monetary Fund, January 15. [6] Goes, Carlos., and Eddy Bekkers (2022), “The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Trade, Growth, and  Innovation”, World Trade Organisation, July 4. [7] Source: Bain and Temasek, with contributions from Microsoft, Southeast Asia’s Green Economy 2022  Report: Investing behind new realities
So for example, in the most recent fielding of our survey, the panel was asked:  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  In your view, what would you say is the percent chance that the following things may happen to the rate of inflation/deflation over the one-year period between February 2013 and February 2014? Chart 6 gives you the question in full. We have been fielding the forward inflation expectation question since spring 2008, and Chart 7 contains some time-series information from the responses. We use established statistical techniques to estimate continuous probability distributions from each individual set of responses. We then find the median of the medians of the individual distributions to represent the average forward expectation and the upper and lower quartiles of the individual medians to measure disagreement across respondents. For our measure of uncertainty we report the median of the individual inter-quartile ranges. As a complement to attempting to improve the measurement of household forward inflation expectations, we have also been investigating expectations about wage growth. Because firms and workers may negotiate changes in wages to be in line with their expected rate of inflation, data on wage expectations are an additional information source for analyzing inflation dynamics and the interaction between wage and price determination. Furthermore, discrepancies between expected changes in wages and expected inflation may affect households’ financial decisions. Despite the obvious importance of wage expectations, information on wage expectations is particularly scarce.

Simon M Potter: Improving survey measures of inflation expectations Speech by Mr Simon M Potter, Executive Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Forecasters Club of New York, New York City, 30 March 2011. Wilbert van der Klaauw, Giorgio Topa, Robert Rich, Olivier Armantier, Basit Zafar and Joseph Tracy. The results from the New York Fed–American Life Panel Survey I will discuss today reflect data collected through mid-March 2011. Papers containing more detail on the research I have summarized today can be found on the New York Fed website. *  *  *  Good afternoon. It is a pleasure to be here today to talk with you about some of the New York Fed’s ongoing research on the measurement of household inflation expectations. The views expressed are mine and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. That said, I want to acknowledge my colleagues in the Research Group who have pushed our research on inflation expectations forward. Expectations, and in particular inflation expectations, play a key role in the conduct of modern monetary policy. Expectations drive people’s behavior by influencing a wide range of economic decisions such as saving, investment, purchases of durable goods and wage negotiations. These decisions in turn affect real economic activity and actual inflation.
From the building of the foundation of legal, regulatory and shariah framework, the Islamic Banking Act (1983) to the formation of the first Islamic bank and Takaful Company to instituting Islamic windows concept for banking institutions and encouraging competition amongst the Islamic financial institutions in the nineties (1990s), to establishing key infrastructures and institutional arrangements such as the Shariah Advisory Council and the Islamic Money Market, we are on a mission to be the center for Islamic finance. Today we have a comprehensive system for Islamic finance but as you would expect, because of competition and the fast changing pace of the banking industry, we must continue to strive to maintain the lead in this industry. There are a few pre requisite to maintain this competitive edge. It is the ability of the industry to meet the evolving and discerning needs of the users of Islamic finance and the ability to meet those needs in a timely and comprehensive manner. The solutions to customer needs must be as innovative and competitive as any other alternatives offered by the financial market. The shariah aspect of the products must be recognized and accepted by the majority of players practicing Islamic finance. The supply and ability to attract and retain talent, not only in shariah area and Islamic finance, but also those who are conversant in IT, legal, accounting, risk management and communication. The next level of development will probably entail the enhancement of linkages between various centers, be it in the financial markets, credits or investment of funds.

When we embark into this journey during the early 1980s there was no precedent to follow. We did not wait until we were 100% sure or until we were sure we could tackle all the possible issues that might arise. Some might say that this is a “trial and error” method. But history has taught us that many break through ideas and solutions originated from this approach. The willingness to try new things and the ability to move on should an idea doesn’t work is an important attribute. It pays over the long run. The willingness to use existing resources that had served the financial system well is another contributing factor. Malaysia has already in place an efficient custodian, payment and settlement system, the principal dealership system, the real time gross settlement system and the process of tendering of government securities. All this has a proven track record of being effective and efficient. We avoid “reinventing the wheel” because it is costly, time consuming and risky if we create an entirely new approach. We adopt and adapt with the existing system so long it does not contravene any shariah principle or requirement. Willingness of shariah scholars to practice ijtihad is another contributing factor. The courage to set a precedent and the resolve to agree to a new concept never done before.
Growth is projected to stabilise in the second half of the year, and to remain stable in 2024 and 2025, underpinned by a recovery in real disposable income thanks to the anticipated easing of inflation, rising wages and resilient employment. Conversely, the tightening of monetary policy will exert increasing downside pressure on economic activity. All told, GDP is projected to grow by 0.9% in 2023 and by 1.5% in 2024, with both figures revised down by 0.1 percentage points (pp) compared with the March projections. The GDP growth forecast for 2025 is unchanged at 1.6%. Inflation declined further in May (to 6.1%), with a zero contribution from the energy component. Meanwhile, food and services prices have barely dropped from their recent alltime highs. Underlying inflation stood at 5.3% in May and has shown greater downward stickiness than expected a few months ago. The Eurosystem projections point to a gradual reduction in inflation as a result of base effects, the expected gradual moderation of energy and food prices and their progressive pass-through to underlying inflation. These factors should offset the mounting pressure from wages. Profit margins, which grew in recent quarters, are expected to moderate over the projection horizon. Overall, inflation is forecast to stand at 5.4% in 2023, to subsequently ease to 3% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. These inflation projections are similar to the March ones.

In fact, reflecting the complexity and  2/6  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  exhaustiveness of this text, it is now heading for a February slot before the European Parliament, which is expected to give its final endorsement. From then on the clock will start ticking on what will most likely be a profound game changer for this industry. Contributing to shaping the regulatory framework, as we have done with MiCA, is probably the most straightforward way to deal with new developments. Nevertheless, it may not be enough to avoid certain undesired effects, and crypo-assets are a good example in this regard. Let us imagine what would happen if stablecoins denominated in a currency other than the official one were extensively used. They may not pose risks to the financial system, if properly regulated and supervised, but this situation could introduce fragmentation, undermine the role of central bank money as monetary anchor, and, ultimately, bring instability and hinder monetary sovereignty. Therefore, central banks need to stand ready to take additional measures, if needed, which leads me to the second part of my address. The Eurosystem experience in developing and providing a digital euro One of the additional measures that could be adopted to respond to the challenges raised by financial innovation is the development of a retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
We live in a small open economy and are forced to import inflation through our purchases of necessities from abroad. Because of this, we must trust that our trading partners will take decisive action to bring inflation down within their own borders. Iceland is now reaping the rewards of the ironbound policy formulated during its reconstruction following the 2008 financial crisis - a policy that insisted on a secure financial system with strong lines of defence against external instability. Icelandic banks have extraordinarily strong capital in historical and international context, and they are under close financial supervision. Moreover, the news from abroad confirms that merging the Central Bank and the Financial Supervisory Authority back together at the beginning of 2020 was the right decision. The merger and, in particular, the increased power the Bank has been granted in the area of financial stability have been of vital importance in ensuring that the current fluctuations in demand, interest rates, and financial conditions do not give rise to a credit bubble or excessive risk-taking in the financial sector. Iceland carries very little household, corporate, or government debt in comparison with other countries. It is clear that these conditions provide monetary policy with full flexibility to act. There are no handcuffs here. Honoured guests: I don't know whether any of you have gotten lost in the fog, found yourselves going around in circles, and been convinced that water flows upstream. I have never gotten lost in the Icelandic outback, but I have often done so in foreign megacities.

This position is unique, at the very least for two reasons: The first reason is that Bulgaria is the only country in the European Union, which is a member of the European Banking Union, a key institution of the euro area, but it is not a member of the euro area itself. The second reason is that Bulgaria is one of the two countries in the European Union, together with Denmark, whose currency has joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, which many observers describe as the euro area "waiting room". The preparedness of the Central Bank and of the banking sector to operate under the conditions of the euro area, as well as the stability of the exchange rate are actually two of the most important requirements for a country to enter the euro area. These requirements, in the case of Bulgaria, have already been met. As you know, in 2020 Bulgaria become a full member of the European Banking Union. Ever since our currency has been part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. By virtue of our membership in the European Banking Union and in its key mechanisms, the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Mechanism, the Bulgarian National Bank takes part in making the most important decisions related to the supervision and resolution of the banks in the euro area, plus of course the banks in Bulgaria.