samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The banking crisis morphed into a sovereign debt crisis. In these countries credit contracted even further, aggravating the ongoing recession and further weakening the banking system in a vicious circle. Fears of potential sovereign default, with likely catastrophic impact on domestic banking sectors, caused interbank lending between countries to dry up and funding markets in the euro area became fragmented along national lines. This threatened the even transmission of monetary policy across the euro area. The interest rates faced by businesses and households – and indeed sovereigns – became increasingly divorced from movements in short-term central bank rates. The crisis that had started as a global crisis was now becoming the crisis of the euro. The financial sector played a significant role in not only propagating but also originating negative shocks to the economy. Financial frictions – largely absent from both the pre-crisis experience of developed economies and the canonical macroeconomic models – had become major drivers of the recession. The resulting crisis prompted academics to reassess existing economic paradigms and policymakers to adjust their frameworks. The rediscovery of the notion that policy may have a role in coordinating private expectations at times of severe uncertainty played a major part in the transition to today’s post-crisis world.

5 This includes recapitalisation measures, asset relief interventions, liquidity measures and guarantees. For  2009, the numbers as a percentage of GDP are around 12 % for Netherlands, 8 % for Germany, 5.4 % for Spain and 5 % for France. See Financial Crisis Aid amounts for a more detailed breakdown. 6 Laeven, L. and F. Valencia (2013), “Systematic banking crisis database”, IMF Economic Review, 61(2): 225–  270. 7 E.g. Diamond, D. and P. Dybvig (1983), Bank runs, deposit insurance and liquidity”, Journal of Political  Economy, 91(3): 401–419; Cooper, R. and A. John (1988), “Coordinating coordination failures in Keynesian models”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103(3): 441–463; Calvo, G. (1988), “Servicing the public debt: the role of expectations”, American Economic Review, 78(4):647–661. The search and matching literature also exhibits multiple equilibria, e.g. Diamond, P. (1982), “Aggregate demand management in search equilibrium”, Journal of Political Economy, 90(5): 881–894. 8 Gertler, M. and N. Kiyotaki (2015), “Banking, liquidity and bank runs in an infinite horizon economy,” American  Economic Review, 105(7): 2011–2043. 9 Eggertsson, G. and M. Woodford (2003), “The zero bound on interest rates and optimal monetary policy”,  Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 34(1): 139–235; Woodford (2012) “Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound,” presented at the Jackson Hole symposium, August. ; Nakov, A. (2008), “Optimal and simple monetary policy rules with zero floor on the nominal interest rate”, International Journal of Central Banking, 4(2): 73–127.
The less willing they are to do so – the greater their impatience – the higher the compensation they require. That compensation takes the form of a higher interest rate. So, for a given level of saving, an impatient society will have higher interest rates than a patient one. 31  See http://ourworldindata.org/data/political-regimes/democratisation/  32  Levine and Renelt (1992). 33  Acemoglu and Robinson (2013). 34  Clark (2009). 35  Comin, Easterly and Gong (2010). The same is found to be true of technological advances in 1000 BC and 1 AD, although the effects on subsequent patterns of growth are less strong. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Chart 12 plots a measure of short and long-term interest rates back to 3000 BC. Though the data are patchy, they suggest interest rates fell secularly in the run-up to the Industrial Revolution, from double-digits to around 3%. Alternative interest rates, such as the rate of return on physical assets such as land, show a similar pattern. 36 One interpretation of these trends is that they reflect society’s evolving time preferences. In the run-up to the Industrial Revolution, society became more willing to wait than in the past. That, in turn, enabled saving, investment and ultimately growth. Patience was a virtue. But if society’s time preferences were indeed shifting, that still begs the question why? Here, we can enlist some outside help.

The Bank of Albania is very heedful to external balances of the Albanian economy, regarding their correction as one of the main priorities of the country’s macroeconomic policies. This objective assumes more importance against the backdrop of recent developments in global financial markets. In the long run, its attainment requires ongoing structural reforms, which will enhance competitiveness of the Albanian economy and will generate higher revenues from the export of goods and services. Monetary inflationary pressures remain subdued in the medium run. Monetary expansion has maintained stable annual growth rates during the year, resulting 10.4% in September. Public sector demand for funding has been downward in recent months, making the private sector’s demand provide the largest contribution to money supply growth. Private sector credit grew 14.0% in September, marking a slight acceleration compared with the first half of the year. However, as we have constantly stated, the relatively sluggish performance of private sector credit reflects mostly its weak demand. The banking sector appears liquid and well capitalized to credit the Albanian economy, but it has increased its prudence in terms of lending, thus reflecting the new reality of the Albanian economy and global financial markets. The Bank of Albania assesses that, within the parameters of prudence, there is room for a more rapid growth of credit and for supporting sound investment projects by the banking sector. On our behalf, we will continue to support the financial system with liquidity and monetary stimuli in order to boost lending.
Kremer, M. and A. Popov, (2018), “Financial Development, Financial Structure, and Growth: Evidence from Europe”, Special Feature A, ECB Report on Financial Integration in Europe. Leandro A. and J. Zettelmeyer (2018), “The search for a Euro area safe asset”, Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper 18–3. Mokyr, J. (2014), “Secular Stagnation? Not in Your Life”, Geneva Report on the World Economy, pp. 83–89. Monti, M. (2010), “A New Strategy for the Single Market”, report to the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, May 2010. Tumpel-Gugerell, G. (2009), “The road less travelled – exploring the nexus of macro-prudential and monetary policy”, speech at the conference Learning from the financial crisis: financial stability, macroeconomic policy and international institutions, Rome, 12 November 2009. van Ark, B., M. O’Mahoney and M. Timmer, (2008), “The Productivity Gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and Causes”, Journal of Economic Perspectives 22:25–44. 1 Tumpel-Gugerell, G. (2009), “The road less travelled – exploring the nexus of macro-prudential and monetary  policy”, speech at the conference “Learning from the financial crisis: financial stability, macroeconomic policy and international institutions”, Rome, 12 November 2009. 2 Beck, R., L. Dedola, A. Giovannini and A. Popov (2016), “Financial integration and risk sharing in a monetary  union”, ECB Report Financial Integration in Europe, Special Feature A; see also Asdrubali, P., B. Sorensen and O. Yosha (1996), “Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963–1990”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 111(4): 1081–1110.

5/19/2020  Pandemic central banking: the monetary stance, market stabilisation and liquidity  SPEECH  Pandemic central banking: the monetary stance, market stabilisation and liquidity         Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability Policy Webinar, 19 May 2020 19 May 2020 In my recent blog post, I described the range of scenarios that have been developed by ECB staff to support the analysis of the near-term and medium-term macroeconomic dynamics in the context of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. [1],[2] I also explained the current monetary policy of the ECB and outlined our approach to setting the future course of monetary policy. My remarks today aim to reinforce these points by presenting some additional empirical evidence. Macroeconomic outlook Chart 1 shows the three scenarios developed by ECB staff that were published on 1 May. Since then, the Eurosystem staff have continued to track the incoming information (both the economic data and the public health data): the forthcoming June Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections will provide an updated assessment of the economic outlook. Still, the 1 May scenarios provide an excellent framework for understanding the environment facing policymakers. In all scenarios, the current quarter represents the trough of the crisis, with a cumulative decline in the range of 10 to 20 percent of GDP since the start of the year.
On its part, the Bank of Zambia, working with several stakeholders, including Bankers Association of Zambia, has over the years made progress in modernising the payment system. The information technology which serves as a major platform for modern payment systems to operate has also advanced. These developments have set the stage for the development of innovative payment systems capable of serving consumers in a cost effective way. Further, the growth of the number of players as well as the increasing number of initiatives require a robust supporting legal infrastructure to govern the payment system. To this end, the National Payment Systems Act No.1 (NPSA) was enacted in 2007. The NPSA empowered the Bank of Zambia to develop and implement the national payment systems policy so as to promote the efficiency, stability and safety of the Zambian financial system. The Bank of Zambia thus designates players wishing to provide payment services such as money transfer services, mobile banking and other payment services. This process has strengthened the capacity of the BoZ to monitor transactions and to ensure that only safe and efficient institutions are allowed to provide payment services. Distinguished Guests, allow me to conclude by congratulating Ecobank Zambia Limited for the innovative products that we are launching today. We hope that our people can send and receive money conveniently, safely, and at a reasonable cost. I also wish to call upon all banks and financial institutions to emulate Ecobank by introducing such products which contribute to increasing access to banking services for the Zambian people.

Another issue that should be considered in connection with the development of the mobile payment system is that of inter-operability. The ability of systems to work together makes further innovation possible, provides convenience for customers, allows for sharing of infrastructure and therefore greater use of facilities. We are therefore looking to you to ensure that your retail payment systems allow cross network acceptance of payments. Ultimately, we should work towards developing a single switching platform through which all payment systems are connected to each other for maximum efficiency. Chairperson, as you deliberate at this conference, I expect that you will challenge yourselves to the issues that I have outlined above. Accelerated growth and adoption of mobile payments are possible but we must in the process adequately address issues of cost of mobile payments, security of payments, ease of use of technological platforms and design of compatible and interoperable platforms. The Bank of Zambia looks forward to receiving the recommendations and outcomes of this conference. I thank you and wish you fruitful deliberations. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
He told me candidly he did not look at "the colour of investment - be it yellow, red or white". This reminded me of Deng Xiaoping's famous dictum: that the colour of a cat matters less than its ability to catch mice. The Indian communists had drawn lessons from the fate of other communist regimes - the fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of China. They know they have to perform or perish. I believe that reform in India is irreversible, even though the pace may fluctuate. No matter which party comes to power, the government of the day will have to perform or perish. The Indian voters have  BIS Review 86/2006  1  seen how China, which was once just as poor, has raised the standard of living of its people. And they want their government to do the same for them. Second, India has many strengths, not least of which is a large pool of talent, including well-educated English-speaking professionals and workers. India has 300 universities and 1,500 research institutions. It produces over 200,000 engineers and 9,000 PhDs each year. It also has a young population. What will drive India forward is sheer hunger - not the hunger that comes from poverty but the hunger for knowledge and success. The drive and desire of young Indians to succeed is palpable - in top institutions like the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) and Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), or the Infosys campus in Bangalore.

I hope that the next few days will provide all of you with fresh insights into Asia and Singapore. Thank you. 4  BIS Review 86/2006
For recent programs, this maturity distribution has been announced at the outset, and a schedule of upcoming operations is released at the end of each month.17 Such transparency is possible because, unlike the agency MBS market, the composition of Treasury coupon securities available for purchase is reasonably predictable. The current monthly pace of Treasury purchases is within the range seen during the Federal Reserve’s previous asset purchase programs, whether measured in par terms or when adjusted for duration risk. Current SOMA holdings are less than 20 percent of coupon Treasuries outstanding, and our purchases make up only about 25 percent of monthly gross  14  For example, in January, the Desk decreased its purchases of 30-year fixed-rate 3.5 percent coupon agency MBS relative to projected gross issuance as a result of concerns about the near-term availability of this coupon for settlement and increased its purchases of 3 percent coupon agency MBS. 15  The Desk could also purchase from the stock of securities that trade as specialized pools, although such purchases may involve different efficacy and cost considerations. 16  For example, the percentage of securities issued outside of the TBA market has recently been higher due to programs like the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). MBS backed by loans refinanced through HARP have lower prepayment risk than other MBS, because borrowers can only use the program once, and consequently are not typically issued in the TBA market.

First, in response to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 the Bank increased the supply of liquidity in pesos and dollars – through repos and swaps –, augmented the extensions of the swap program, and broadened the range of eligible collaterals. They were all measures designed to align market rates with the Monetary Policy Rate and to mitigate foreign currency liquidity tensions. Forward guidance was also an important tool. With the Monetary Policy Rate close to zero – we cut the interest rate from 8.25% to 0.5% in less than a year – , communicating that we planned to keep a very low short-term interest rate for an extended period of time. This was essential in keeping medium and long term interest rates low. These measures – as well as some other more exogenous developments such as the rapid recovery of commodity prices – allowed the economy to rebound quite fast from a mild recession in 2009. Actually, in the post-crisis years GDP growth was above 5% in a context of low inflation. Over time, these measures were eliminated, but certainly the lessons we learned from the crisis have been incorporated into our policy analysis and toolkit. Among the most significant I would mention two: First, the fact that the central bank must be rapid to respond and use all the available tools if necessary.
More than half of the industry today is made up of MSB companies with annual turnovers of at least RM50 million, compared to only a third of the industry operating at this level 6 years ago. The public can conduct money changing and remittance transactions at over 2,500 locations nationwide, more than double the number of access points in 2011. An increasing number of companies are also offering online options for customers to conduct remittance and money changing transactions. The Bank is also happy to note that the industry received a positive assessment under the most recent mutual evaluation exercise conducted on Malaysia by the Asia Pacific Group (APG) on Money Laundering. As you know, the APG is an international organisation committed to the implementation and enforcement of international standards against money laundering and the financing of terrorism, working closely with organisations like the Financial Action Task Force, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The assessment is a rigorous process, so a positive assessment is something that the industry can take great pride in. In its most recent 2015 report, the APG specifically noted that mitigation of money laundering and terrorist financing risks in the MSB sector has improved significantly in recent years, while acknowledging that there are challenges among smaller companies that we are collaborating together with the industry to address. One of the key steps that we are taking is to provide compliance officers with appropriate training, and then supporting them to be professionally accredited.

Jessica Chew Cheng Lian: Malaysian banking industry challenges and developments Speech by Ms Jessica Chew Cheng Lian, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Malaysian Association of Money Services Business Annual Dinner 2017, Kuala Lumpur, 29 April 2017. * * * It is my great pleasure to be here with you this evening at the annual dinner of the Malaysian Association of Money Services Business. I remember a time six or seven years ago when the Bank gathered the industry together at the auditorium in the headquarters of Bank Negara Malaysia to explain the new legislation that was being introduced for the industry. The industry then, and the industry today, is almost unrecognisable. You would have heard this said a few times now, and I think it keeps getting mentioned because the change has been so striking. Tonight, the industry will recognise companies that are leading the way in terms of exemplary customer service to the public, as judged independently by a global consulting firm. This is yet another reminder of how far the industry has come. In the last six years, the industry has almost doubled the value of money services transactions conducted through licensed MSB companies. We estimate that this included about 43% of worker remittances previously conducted through informal or illegal channels, that are now captured within the formal system. On average, MSB companies have increased their turnovers by more than 16%.
Inheritance, insurance or social payments, payments awarded by a court decision, proceeds from the sale of real estate, etc. are cases where we deem it possible to raise the insurance coverage to 10 million rubles. Another aspect of consumer protection is conduct supervision. This is a system that controls whether financial organisations conduct sales, conclude agreements and deliver on their obligations in a reliable manner. Do sellers disclose information about potential risks when they sell their products? Do they provide fair information about returns? Do they impose unnecessary services to customers? Last year, we had to pay attention to the practice of life insurance policy sales. We received a lot of complaints that customers had been lured by high returns, but as a result earned less than they could have earned if they had deposited their money with a bank. Investment life insurance grew at an outpacing rate and the collected insurance premiums reached large amounts. Currently, the market is on a downward trend, shrinking by 27% in the period from 2018 Q1 until 2019 Q1. It is an expected development. This is the result of both the public’s disappointment in the product and the regulator’s tighter requirements. We want the financial market to demonstrate healthy growth rather than to be driven by deception. Moderate growth rates are acceptable if the market develops in a healthy manner. Last year, we established the institute of financial ombudsman. A special law we had discussed for many years was adopted.

Consider this graph:  Over the past six years, the monetary base has increased 340 percent, 10 times the rate at which the economy would have expanded in nominal terms had we not suffered the recent recession. One is hard pressed to argue that there is much efficacy derived from additional expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. This is why I’ve been such a strong proponent of dialing back our large-scale asset purchases. It is my firm belief that the fault in our economy lies not in monetary policy but in a feckless federal government that simply cannot get its fiscal and regulatory policy geared so as to encourage business to take the copious amount of money we at the Fed have created and put it to work creating jobs and growing our economy. Fiscal policy is not only “not an ally of U.S. growth,” it is its enemy. If the fiscal and regulatory authorities that you elect and put into office to craft taxes, spending and regulations do not focus their efforts on providing incentives for businesses to expand job-creating capital investment rather than bicker with each other for partisan purposes, our economy will continue to fall short and the middleincome worker will continue being victimized, no matter how much money the Fed prints. I don’t want to ruin your evening after such a pleasant dinner.