samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
7 [24]  global value chains and an increasing amount of trade is online, both prices and wages are under pressure. But there can also be other factors involved. Figure 4. Inflation, nominal wages, labour shortages and the policy rate in a number of countries, before and after the financial crisis. (a) Inflation (b) Nominal wages 3  3  Average 2000-2007 Average 2010-2018  4  2  2  1  1  0  5  Average 2000-2007 Average 2010-2018  5 4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  20  5  16  4  12  12  3  3  8  8  2  2  4  4  1  1  0  0  Euro area  20 16  0  Germany  United Kingdom  Nordic countries  United States  (c) Labour shortages Average 2000-2007 Average 2010-2018  Euro area  Germany  United Kingdom  Nordic countries  United States  Euro area  Germany  United Kingdom  Nordic countries  United States  (d) Policy rate  5  Average 2000-2007 Average 2010-2018  Euro area  Germany  0  4  United Kingdom  Nordic countries  United States  0  Note. (a) Annual percentage change. For the euro area HICP is shown and for the remainder CPI (b) Annual percentage change. Wages refer to compensation per employee.

Physical distances have lost significance as a result of these developments, which promotes cross-border securities trading. However, cross-border transactions are still unnecessarily dear. As I said, there is reason to hope that transaction costs can be pushed down further as cross-border trading becomes smoother. 2  BIS Review 66/2004  Increased internationalisation Cross-border trade is part of an increasing internationalisation process in the financial markets. Over the past ten years, both non-resident ownership of Swedish securities and trading by non-resident investors in Swedish securities have increased. At the same time, Swedish investors have invested more of their capital abroad. The internationalisation of capital is a development welcomed by the Riksbank. It entails both improved risk spreads and the opportunity for higher earnings. In addition, it could lead to better competition and more efficient use of capital in the economy and thereby to greater welfare. This development also makes greater demands on the Swedish securities markets. If we diverge too much from international practice with regard to norms and regulations, particularly tax regulations, it will reduce the economic benefits we obtain from the internationalisation of the markets. However, it does not mean that we should stop thinking about designing regulations. I shall return to this later. Altered ownership structure Another trend that affects the securities markets is the increased institutional ownership. When an increasing share of financial savings in the economy is through mutual funds and large financial institutions, securities trading is also affected.
It enables us to create long-term stability. And this in turn is an asset for the whole economy and the financial sector in particular. 5  Cf. SNB annual Financial Stability Report, in which the SNB presents its yearly assessment of the Swiss banking sector’s stability: www.snb.ch/en/iabout/pub/oecpub/id/pub_oecpub_stabrep. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Due to Switzerland’s stability, domestic and foreign investors find it attractive to invest or have their wealth managed here. Of course, high-quality services provided by banks are an additional factor making Switzerland attractive for investors. Price stability is also an advantage. It makes the future more predictable and decreases the uncertainty of investments. Customers of Swiss banks are not investing exclusively in Swiss assets or Swiss francs. But part of the reason why they want to have their wealth managed here is because of the stable political, economic and monetary conditions. These stable conditions have supported the development of a strong and globally attractive financial sector. Swiss banks are global leaders in managing cross-border assets and wealth management. At the end of 2014, roughly half of the assets under management at banks in Switzerland were foreign customer assets. 6 The Swiss franc plays an important role in the international financial system. Measured by foreign exchange turnover, the Swiss franc was the sixth most important currency worldwide in 2013. 7 The banking sector is also an important part of the Swiss economy. The Swiss banking sector currently generates about 6% of GDP (cf. chart 3).

Spain chose to spend a large portion of the windfalls on luxury and war. More recently the expression “Dutch disease” reminds us that this issue is still relevant. It can certainly be argued that easy money is bad for a country. It is tempting to live comfortably on this income – which actually is not income but drawing on wealth – while it lasts, and forget about and be less concerned about safeguarding other revenue sources. The challenges with large income from natural resources and its negative impact on economic growth have also been pointed out by Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warren. 2  1  David Landes (1998): The Wealth and Poverty of Nations, W.W. Norton & Company, Inc., N.Y.  2  See e.g. J.D. Sachs and A.M. Warner (2001): ”The curse of natural resources”, European Economic Review 45, pp. 827 – 838. BIS Review 106/2006  1  Success in managing our petroleum wealth may be particularly dependent on four key factors. First, from a long-term perspective, oil and gas production will take place during a limited time period. When oil is extracted and sold, petroleum wealth is transformed into financial wealth. This wealth belongs not only to our generation, but also to future generations. We must therefore manage the wealth as an asset. Second, the size of the cash flow from petroleum activities varies considerably from year to year. If it were to be spent as it accrues, this would lead to strong cyclical fluctuations in the Norwegian economy.
Significantly, the recapitalisation process has been accompanied by the transformation of most savings banks into banks, a move that has gone outside and beyond the group of institutions that had to increase their capital to meet the new requirements. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The Banco de España considers that the capital requirements laid down by Royal DecreeLaw 2/2011 are sufficient to ensure the soundness of the Spanish banking system, not only under the most likely macroeconomic scenario, but also under harsher scenarios that are most unlikely to occur. As is known, some analysts estimated that the capital needs of our banking system may be greater in the future, under assumptions of a strong deterioration in the Spanish economy. In this respect, the stress tests being conducted at the European level will show to what extent banks need more capital to withstand the extreme scenarios envisaged in these tests. If, as a result of these tests, certain Spanish banks were to evidence additional capital needs that could not be covered by the banks themselves through resort to the markets or to other means, the FROB would provide the funds required, as envisaged in the Royal Decree. In any event, even under highly pessimistic scenarios about the Spanish economy, the use of public funds to recapitalise institutions would entail only a relatively moderate increase in the outstanding balance of Spanish public debt.

Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid: Islamic finance, e-payments and fintech Opening speech by Mr Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 3rd Islamic Fintech Dialogue (IFD2020), 1 December 2020. * * * It really is a pleasure for me to join you this afternoon to be part of what I am sure will be an illuminating and stimulating dialogue over the next two days. I would like to record Bank Negara Malaysia’s appreciation to ISRA for organising this, but also more broadly, its continued contribution to the development of Islamic finance not just in Malaysia but internationally. As a prestigious research academy, it needs to produce prestigious and breakthrough research, and it needs to have events like this dialogue to further advance the knowledge and exchange of ideas and the cause of Islamic Finance. In 2011, Bank Negara Malaysia issued a 10-year Financial Sector Blueprint. One of the key agendas we wanted to drive was to promote e-payments; at the time, greater use of payment cards, internet banking and online fund transfers. Little did we expect that ‘fintech’, which according to Google Trends was still a nascent term at the time, would grow at the pace and scale we are seeing today. It appears that interest in fintech only picked up rapidly from 2015. Today, many countries, including Malaysia, have adopted it as a key development theme for their financial sector.
None of these changes is obvious, to say the least, but none should be taboo. II. Supervision: lessons from an active euro area model Fair enough about implementing Basel III; but then comes the next suspicion: Credit Suisse failed despite being Basel III compliant. The answer is clear: good regulation is necessary; it's never sufficient. The risks generated by specific business models such as the asset-liability mismatch at SVB or the weak profitability and weak internal controls that dogged Credit Suisse should typically have led to higher supervisory requirements. Supervision should not be seen as a static business; it must be active and tailored to banks characteristics. This is precisely the spirit of the "Pillar 2" in the Basel framework, with the annual Supervisory Review Process. I sometimes hear doubts about supervision, which some believe should be treated as a legal dialogue, cautious in its form, and slow in its effects. No: supervision can and must be intrusive – including on-site –, exercised by highly skilled practitioners, quick in its reaction, strong in its powers. This is not wishful thinking: it has been our experience for decades in the French ACPR, and now for years in the European SSM. Active supervision is indeed one of the great successes of our European Banking Union. In light of the recent reality test, I believe there are two lessons to be learnt from our model.

But as the master of detective novels, Agatha Christie said: "The truth, however ugly, is always curious and beautiful to seekers after it". We will continue to investigate and learn. But this should not obscure the elephant in the room. One of the most important potential source of vulnerabilities nowadays remains non-bank financial intermediaries, which are not regulated appropriately. This is where the liquidity mismatch is the highest and this is why I strongly concur with Klaas' determined commitment to deliver on the FSB agenda there. I thank you for your attention. 1 Pablo Hernández de Cos, Banking starts with banks: initial reflections on recent  market stress episodes, Speech, 12 April 2023. 3/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
The bicentenary is a natural occasion for me to cover the scope of Norges Bank’s tasks, against the backdrop of the challenges facing us today. Low growth and structural changes In 1814, the great powers of Europe dominated world trade. The world’s economic centre of gravity has since shifted westward. Today, in the 21st century, the centre of gravity is moving across the Pacific to Asia. Chart 2: International trade for the US and China When China became a member of the World Trade Organization in 2001, its foreign trade was 30 percent of that of the US. The Chinese economy has since grown at an unprecedented pace. In 2013, China overtook the US as the world’s largest trading nation. An ample supply of labour and low cost levels have given China and the other growth economies of Asia strong competitive advantages in international markets. The global flow of credit over the past 15 years has taken an untraditional direction – from relatively poor countries with strong economic growth to more prosperous, mature economies experiencing lower growth. For a long period, this shift contributed to substantial imbalances in the global economy. An ample supply of credit in western economies pushed down borrowing rates. Facing competition from Asia, it became relatively less profitable for firms in the west to invest in new productive capacity in their home countries. Instead, cheap credit was used to debt-finance consumption and housing, particularly in the US and Europe. Banks and financial institutions had, in practice, free rein to fuel credit growth.

Andrew Bailey: Meeting varied people Speech by Mr Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, at Diversity in Market Intelligence: Launching our Meeting Varied People Initiative, 21 April 2021. * * * Thank you Andrea for that introduction, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. People often talk about diversity in terms of the makeup of their own workforces – and for a public institution like the Bank, it is vital we reflect the whole society we serve. This includes both identity and cognitive diversity, which are equally important. 1 I often say I don’t want to work in a place that is full of people like me.2 I want the Bank to have an inclusive and open culture where people speak up, ensuring we make better decisions by mitigating the risks of groupthink and myopia. Over recent years, a number of my colleagues at the Bank have also emphasised the importance of diversity and inclusion, both for us as an employer, and as a wider public good for the financial sector. 3 We have made significant progress internally: for example, launched our Out & Proud Action Plan in September 2020, and continue to sponsor the ‘Women in Finance’ Charter. 4 But there is always more to be done, which is why for example we recently initiated a review, led by our Court of Directors, on ethnic diversity and inclusion. I know that many of you are doing similar work within your firms.
Inflation targeting was therefore introduced in 2001. High and variable inflation usually accompanies instability in output and employment. But inflation should not be too low over time either. This is partly because the structure of the economy evolves over time. Demand for labour with different qualifications changes. Restructuring requires changes in real wages and relative wages. Nominal wages do not readily fall. With some measure of inflation, real wages and relative wages can be changed without reducing nominal wages. Some degree of inflation will oil the economic machinery. In periods, it will be appropriate to stimulate the economy with low, or even negative, real interest rates. If inflation becomes entrenched at a very low level, the interest rate will be less effective as an instrument because it cannot be set below zero. If the economy is again exposed to unexpected negative disturbances, we will have little scope for manoeuvre. Stability in output and employment In the long term, output and employment are determined by the supply of labour, capital and technology and by the ability to adapt. Monetary policy can contribute to smoothing fluctuations in output and employment. Norges Bank weighs stable inflation against stable output and employment. 2  BIS Review 53/2004  The output gap is a measure of the difference between the actual level of output and potential output. Potential output, which is the level of output that is consistent with inflation over time, is not directly observable and must be estimated.

The outlook for the Norwegian economy Last year, Norges Bank reported that inflation had declined to a low level, but we projected a gradual increase. We highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the inflation projection and indicated that inflation might remain low. Subsequently, inflation fell to an even lower level. Structural adjustments in goods and service markets may imply low inflation also for a period ahead. Growth is high in the Norwegian economy. Growth in the mainland economy primarily reflects higher activity in retail trade, the construction industry and the service sector. Imports are expanding at a brisk pace. There are prospects of continued strong growth in petroleum investment in 2005. Employment is rising, albeit still at a moderate pace. Monetary policy influences the economy with long and variable lags. There is always uncertainty surrounding inflation developments. A very high oil price may also have an impact on the krone exchange rate. Historical deviations between projected and actual developments in the CPI-ATE provide an illustration of the uncertainty surrounding the inflation projections. The fall in the value of the krone through 2003, low interest rates and solid growth in the real economy will gradually push up inflation. Price developments in recent months have, nevertheless, increased the risk that inflation will remain low for a longer period. Thank you for allowing me to make the introductory statement at this hearing. BIS Review 53/2004  5
Percentage of those born in Sweden and those born abroad in the labour force, aged 15-74 years. Sources: Eurostat and Statistics Sweden (AKU)  Increased migration in Sweden and abroad During the latter part of the 19th century there was widespread emigration from Sweden to the United States in particular. Around 1.2 million Swedes emigrated to the United States between 1851 and 1930, which at that time was around one fifth of the population. The reasons were in many cases financial, but religious freedom and increased equality were also attractive. There were several factors that enabled emigration. The emergence of the steam ship was one factor. Liberal ideas on economics, politics and freedom – which made a breakthrough around Europe in the 19th century – were other factors. At the beginning of the 20th century, Sweden was an established “emigration country” with more emigrants than immigrants, see Figure 9. This was primarily due to the large-scale emigration, but we also had very few immigrants. In the year 1900 the percentage of people born abroad in relation to the population as a whole was just 0.7 per cent, with most of them coming from other Nordic countries. An interesting fact here is that the immigrants from outside of Europe comprised 90 people from South America, 79 from Africa (56 of whom were from  13 [24]  South Africa) and 87 from Asia.

One way of doing it is to calculate the average expected future real interest rate, which provides a benchmark if nothing else. Figure 12 shows how an estimate of the Swedish long-term real interest rate has moved since the mid-1990s until now. 20 According to this estimate, it was around 1.5–2 per cent in the middle of the 1990s. Since then, it has shown a downward trend to around −1 per cent. This downturn is primarily due to a trend decline in international interest rates. Figure 12 also shows that the long-term real interest rate has fallen in large and important economies such as the euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Swedish long-term real interest rate followed the level of the euro area fairly closely until the financial crisis in 2008–2009, after which it has been a little higher. There are several reason why international real interest rates have shown a falling trend. At an overall level the willingness to save has increased more than the willingness to invest, which has meant that the long-term real interest rate has fallen. The former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pointed to the increasing saving in China and other Asian countries as one reason for the global increase in savings, partly because of deficiencies in the social insurances systems in the rapidly-growing countries.
But this appears to be an insight that not everyone reaches at the same time. The picture appears to be most clear to the countries that have come furthest in the question of the integration of the financial sector across national boundaries and which themselves have experience of financial crises. It appears to take other countries longer to realise what new demands arise from the changes in the financial landscape. To achieve this it is necessary to surmount ingrained opinions and other internal resistance. I hope that it will not require a financial crisis of catastrophic proportions before the political maturity and willingness to go further can be achieved on all fronts, both nationally and within the EU. As John F Kennedy said, “the time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.” When it starts to drizzle it is high time to speed up. With these words I conclude my talk here at the Swedish Economics Association. It has as always been a great pleasure to be able to share my thoughts with this prominent assembly of economists. I will happily answer any questions you may have now. BIS Review 30/2008  11

Jean-Pierre Roth: What to expect from monetary policy? Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB), Geneva, 25 November 2003. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  A number of current issues, such as the weakness of the economy and the new National Bank Law, raise the question as to what we can expect from monetary policy. With regard to the stability of consumer prices, the answer is relatively simple. The goal of price stability is at the very top of the Swiss National Bank’s priority list. Since both inflation and deflation are monetary phenomena over the long term, the SNB can and will guarantee price stability in future too. Expectations of monetary policy are considerably lower when it comes to regulating economic activity. Economic activity in Switzerland is strongly dependent on growth abroad. Inflation does not bring about long-term economic growth. Stable prices, however, are the best precondition for sustained growth. A goal of price stability automatically ensures a degree of stability in the economy. Because of uncertainty and time lags, however, fine-tuning the economy is an impossible task. Speculative bubbles in the real estate and equity markets have been an increasing source of macroeconomic instability during the past two decades.