samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In particular, the takeover of innovative start-ups should give rise to a revamping of the concepts used by the Commission. Money: To bridge the innovation gap and help our start-ups grow, we need to better mobilise our financial resources thanks to a genuine “Financing Union  Page 13 sur 14 for Investment and Innovation”. Europe is facing an unacceptable paradox : we have the world's largest pool of domestic savings – with the household saving rate hitting an all-time high in 2020 – but since the 2008 financial crisis, investment has been declining, especially in southern and eastern Europe xiv:  And the equity financing of non-financial firm’s is underdeveloped compared to the United States: it only represents 76% of euro area GDP, versus 176% in the United States:  Page 14 sur 14 In the current context of the Covid crisis, consolidating the Capital Markets Union is even more essential to complement public measures and support the economy. There is still too much fragmentation. Tangible solutions are in the pipeline such as new regulatory measures to help companies raise funds rapidly on markets in the context of Covid-19. Further efforts should also be made in the areas of pan-European venture capital, market supervision or companies’ data transparencyxv. ***  In conclusion, I would like to mention a more “cultural” cause of our European lag: let us call it a confidence gap.

x European Commission, 2030 Digital Compass: the European way for the Digital Decade, March 2021 xi For a discussion in the European context, see Andersen S., Petersen O., Moving from flexicurity to ‘mobication’, February 2012 xii Bloom N., Sadun R., Van Reenen J., “Can European firms close their ‘management gap’ with the US? ”, VOXEU, 2017 xiii For an illustration in the US case, see Gilbert R., Innovation Matters: Competition Policy for the High-Technology Economy, July 2020 xiv Gossé J-B., Hermet E., Mourjane A., Dufouleur M., “Developing the Capital Markets Union to mobilise savings and stimulate investment in Europe”, Banque de France Bulletin, September – October 2020 xv European Commission, Capital markets union 2020 action plan: A capital markets union for people and businesses. xvi BVA, Win, Le Point, International barometer of Trust in the future in 57 countries, February 2018 xvii Nye J., Bound To Lead: The Changing Nature Of American Power, August 1991
Permanent and transitory inflation – a schematic account1 Let us now use some simplified examples to analyse how different transitory effects on inflation may arise and what they may imply for monetary policy. Note that we are now studying the direct effects on inflation and disregarding, at least in the second and third examples, the indirect influences that act in the longer run. 1  To illustrate the effects of the various shocks on the picture of inflation as measured with the various indexes, rules of thumb have been used in each example. In practice, a monetary policy situation may also include aspects that prompt the Riksbank to take other effects of its policy measures into account. 5  BIS Review 61/1999  7. Permanent and transitory inflation A schematic account Initial position  4  International slowdown. With unchanged repo rate inflation 2 years ahead drops to 1%. CPI and UND1X then 3 coincide. Repo rate cut by 2 p.p. The economy picks up and UND1X inflation returns to 2%. UND1X  2  CPI  However, the repo rate cut means lower house mortgage 1 expenditure; approximate effects: -1.2 p.p. after one year, -0.4 p.p. after two years 0 and some tenths in the 0 following year. Forecast  1  2  3  Example 1: an economic slowdown Assume that international economic activity suddenly falters. This will affect the economic situation in Sweden.

But if surplus countries are perceived as resisting global adjustment, the political consensus in favor of an open global trading regime could begin to erode. Protectionism is a lose-lose proposition – for surplus and deficit countries alike – which would ultimately prove very harmful to global growth. Sustainably rebalancing global growth won’t be an easy task – and it will take time. A larger share of consumer spending (and lower saving) in the emerging economies requires the development of a stronger and more comprehensive safety net for households. Only with institutional support for health care and retirement are families likely to become more comfortable saving less of their income. It also requires the further development of financial systems so that households can more easily obtain credit and shift expenditures forward in time – for example, to finance spending on education or to purchase housing. The fact that progress will be gradual simply bolsters the case for getting started as soon as possible. Action on rebalancing would also bring short-term benefits. As I’ve noted, the positive fiscal impulse that has supported global growth over the past 18 months is set to unwind. Indeed, in some countries, the stance of fiscal policy will soon turn contractionary. This means that such fiscal consolidation could conceivably put the global recovery at risk. This suggests that moves to rebalance growth toward domestic demand in trade surplus countries would provide a useful offset. Such actions would generate stronger external demand for countries undergoing fiscal consolidation.
Marzunisham Omar: Financial advisers, trusted advisers Keynote address by Mr Marzunisham Omar, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 6th Annual Conference of the Association of Financial Advisers 2017 "Financial Advisers, Trusted Advisers", Kuala Lumpur, 9 October 2017. * * * It is indeed a great pleasure to be here this morning. I would like to thank the Association of Financial Advisers for inviting me to speak, and allow me first to congratulate the team on the successful organisation of this year’s conference. The future is as promising as it is unpredictable. As I reflect on the theme of the Conference, I am reminded of a quote from Confucius, the ancient Chinese philosopher – “I used to take on trust a man’s deeds, after having listened to his words. Now, having listened to a man’s words, I go on to observe his deeds.” This morning I would like to talk about trust – financial advisers as trusted advisers. Indeed, trust is at the heart of the financial advisory industry. While customer service and technology are increasingly the key differentiators, the most essential element has been, and will always be, trust. In an industry where the very foundations are dependent on the strength of personal relationships, trust is not only a necessary feature – it is its strongest advantage, its defining value proposition.

d. Finally, there are some additional risks to take into account: Reputational risk if CBDC is not widely adopted by the public, or if privately issued currencies gain more traction; Financial exclusion of the “nontech” persons? Even though many CBDC experiences are from developed economies such as Canada and Sweden, there are also some experiments in developing economies such as China, Colombia and Uruguay. For emerging economies, where persons tend to be financially underserved, is CBDC the most efficient way to solve this problem? Other alternatives, such as fast payments solutions, can be evaluated. Page 9 of 11  Central Bank of Chile September 2019  In conclusion: a. Blockchain technology implies opportunities and concerns that should be carefully addressed: Which is the goal of technology adoption? b. This is especially important in the case of CDBC: financial inclusion, response to new forms of e-money, facilitate wholesale payments, faster payments, cross-border payments? c. CDBC does not necessarily need blockchain. Our understanding is that DLT or Blockchain technologies are more useful when several participants of a given system need to have access to a ledger of information and/or when participants do not necessarily trust each other (and therefore proof of work requirements make the register almost immutable). However, when a Central Bank issues its currency -- either in physical or digital format -- trust should be a given. Also is far from obvious that all market participants should have access to sensitive information such as all transactions in which the CBDC was used.
You must continue to organize and support the necessary training and mentoring of supervisors so that a pool of capable and technically sound personnel is always available and that greater reliability may be placed on their output. During today and tomorrow several papers will be presented on a variety of sub themes and I anticipate that at the end of this conference some critical imperatives would have been identified to steer us through the current challenges and others looming on the horizon. Our confidence in the role of the CGBS has never been misplaced. I wish you all successful deliberations and trust that your stay here will afford you the opportunity to discover for yourself the beauty of our country and the warmth of the Guyanese people. Welcome once again to all. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

Operational systems and controls, including mechanism to protect consumers’ interest and prevent criminal activity, can vary considerably between entities and jurisdictions. With typically hundreds or more money services entities in most countries, such diversity presents a unique set of challenges for money services businesses and regulators seeking to put in place the necessary frameworks to manage and mitigate risks associated with the business. In the more recent period, money services businesses have been confronted with increased challenges from heightened global concerns with crimes committed cross-border and  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  transnational money laundering. The cash-based nature of MSB transactions, global reach of remittance networks, and customer verification processes, if not properly managed would render MSBs susceptible to money laundering threats. Heightened regulatory scrutiny over money laundering controls and heavy penalties meted out by regulators might prompt banks to review their relationships with MSB companies. Some banks have withdrawn banking facilities provided to MSB companies, creating significant difficulties for large numbers of MSB companies that are doing legitimate business. On the other hand, as the bar is raised for MSBs to strengthen AML procedures, there is a concern over the unintended consequences that this might exclude certain segments of society from access to the formal financial system. Worse, it pushes more transactions to the informal or illegal channels. I raise these observations to highlight two points which I thought are relevant to this Conference.
Given my role in the Markets Group at the New York Fed, I'd like to focus on what financial market participants' beliefs and market prices can tell us about this question and what we should do with the answers from them.8 Let's first consider asking market participants directly and then use observed asset prices to answer the question. Prior to the January 2019 FOMC meeting, as part of its routine policy expectations survey, the New York Fed asked market participants to report what percent chance they attach to the U.S. economy currently being in an NBER recession, and what percent chance they attach to the U.S. economy being in an NBER recession in six months.9 We have been asking survey recipients 2/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  these questions for over 10 years. As shown in Figure 1, the median respondent assigned a 2 percent probability to the U.S. currently being in a recession and a 12 percent probability to the U.S. being in a recession in six months, with a fairly small degree of dispersion around these predictions. Separately, we posed a newer and more complicated question, asking respondents to provide a probability distribution of the timing at which they believe the U.S. economy will first enter a recession. The bubble chart shown in Figure 2 illustrates the range of results, with the relative size of each bubble indicating the relative number of responses for each probability. Perhaps not surprisingly, responses were much more dispersed.

A small number of these participants quickly separated themselves from the pack and consistently maintained their exceptional performance. Tetlock dubbed these individuals "superforecasters" and subsequently focused his team on aggregating the forecasts of these standout performers—a strategy that draws from the "wisdom of the crowd." As you well know, this strategy relies on some degree of independence in the information, approaches, and insights producing the forecasts. We often think of independence in a very statistical sense, but Superforecasting conveys a useful framing of independence as how one assembles diverse teams and how team dynamics can be established to maintain this diversity. 4 This approach won the IARPA tournament by a substantial margin with the use of one subtle but important tweak. Tetlock extremized the aggregated prediction probabilities—so, for example, a probability of 70 percent became 85 percent. 1/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  So what can we learn from these non-technical superforecasters who outperformed the intelligence community? Tetlock lists a number of characteristics that generate individual diversity and maintain that diversity in a team dynamic. My quick summary of these lessons is to be humble, always question, listen to alternative views, and—very comfortingly for Bayesians like me—always express your forecast as a distribution rather than a point forecast, and crucially update that forecast when new information arrives. Further, constantly assess why forecasts worked and didn't work.
The Riksbank’s strategy has been to combine a marginally higher repo rate with communication that emphasises the fact that we perceive the development of high growth in credit and rising house prices to be worrying. The slightly higher repo rate does have some effect in itself, but perhaps its main function is as a concrete reminder of the risks, and it has thereby been an important part of the communication. In my opinion, this has had an impact, not least in increasing general awareness of the problems. The discussion of these questions now going on underlines that this has been the case. More extensive problem than just indebtedness After thus having responded to the first part of the first claim – that the Riksbank has leaned aggressively against the wind – I intend to move on to the second part, namely that the purpose of the policy of leaning against the wind has been to limit household debt. As I have pointed out, the element of leaning against the wind has not been particularly large, but has been there to some extent. However, it is too easy to say that this has only been aimed at getting households to borrow less, or as it is sometimes portrayed, that the Riksbank has a target as to how high debt may become in relation to income, for example. Even though developments in household debts are definitely an important part of the problem, the picture is much more complex.

Krugman, Paul (2014b), Apologizing to Japan. The Opinion Pages, The New York Times, October 30. Malmqvist, Peter (2014), Låg ränta bäddar för överhettning. (Low repo rate paves the way for overheating) Svenska Dagbladet Opinion, 19 July. Mian, Atif and Sufi, Amir (2014), House of Debt. University of Chicago Press. Mitelman, Henrik (2014), Nu blir Ingves börsens bästis. (Now Ingves is the stock market’s best friend) Dagens industri newspaper, 29 October. Münchau, Wolfgang (2014), What central banks should do to deal with bubbles. Column, Financial Times, July 13. OECD (2011), OECD Economic Outlook, No. 89, May 2011. Schularick, Moritz and Taylor Alan M. (2012), Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870–2008. American Economic Review 102(2). Smets, Frank (2013), Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: How Closely interlinked? Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2013:3. Jubilee issue. Stein, Jeremy C. (2013), Overheating in Credit Markets: Origins, Measurement, and Policy Responses. Speech at “Restoring Household Financial Stability after the Great Recession: Why Household Balance Sheets Matter”, research symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Summers, Lawrence (2014), Washington Must Not Settle for Secular Stagnation. Financial Times, 5 January. Svenska Dagbladet (2014a), Krugman har fel om svensk bubbla. (Krugman is wrong about a Swedish bubble) Interview with Lars Svensson, SvD Näringsliv (business section of Svenska Dagbladet newspaper), 14 January. Svenska Dagbladet (2014b), ”Nollränta är som att kasta bensin på en brasa”.
Thus, at this juncture, it is prudent to consider a wide range of indicators of labor market activity to better gauge the overall health of the labor market. In the press conference following the March FOMC meeting, Chair Janet Yellen indicated that, in addition to focusing on the official unemployment rate, the Committee considers a wide range of data in assessing labor market conditions. 4 These include quit rates, layoffs and a variety of wage measures, as well as broader measures of unemployment that include discouraged workers and those who would like to work more hours. 5 Generally, the evidence points to a still weak labor market. We still have some ways to go to reach our employment mandate. Below target on 2 percent inflation goal, too Let’s now turn to our price stability mandate. No one can doubt that we are undershooting our 2 percent target. Total PCE prices rose just 0.9 percent over the past 12 months; that is a substantial and serious miss. And, as the bull’s-eye chart shows, this undershooting has persisted for several years. Compounding these difficulties, below-target inflation is a  4  Federal Open Market Committee (2014b). 5  For example, the broadest measure of the unemployment rate, U-6, includes those workers who are marginally attached and those working part-time for economic reasons. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  worldwide phenomenon and it is difficult to be confident that all policymakers around the world have fully taken its challenge onboard.

Charles L Evans: Monetary goals and strategy Speech by Mr Charles L Evans, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, at the Annual Hyman P Minsky Conference on the State of the US and World Economies, Washington, DC, 9 April 2014. *  *  *  Accompanying charts can also be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s website. Introduction Thank you Dimitri. Before proceeding with my comments today, I need to remind you that the views I express are my own and are not necessarily shared by my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or within the Federal Reserve System. The U.S. Congress created the Federal Reserve System 100 years ago, largely as a way to provide an elastic currency that could mitigate the banking panics and other disruptions that impaired economic activity and contributed to deflations in the late 1800s and early 1900s. That mission has evolved into what is now known as our dual mandate – the Federal Reserve’s directive to help foster conditions that achieve both stable prices and maximum employment. Over the Fed’s 100 year history, three major historical episodes continue to provide lessons for today (chart 1). First, in the 1930s, the U.S. economy experienced a severe credit contraction and deflation during the Great Depression. Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz argued persuasively that inept monetary policy failed to combat these destructive deflationary forces.
The degree of sophistication in financial markets urge all market participants to increase their focus on risk management and policy makers to monitor closely the developments and identify risks in these markets. This shift in market participants’ perceptions is particularly important, considering the lessons derived from painful experiences of crises, which especially occurred during the last two decades all around the world. These lessons taught us how costly and disruptive financial instability can be and how effective risk management can be to avoid adverse conditions in advance. Even though there is no consensus on how to define financial stability, its importance is widely accepted. Due to the financial crises experienced on the road to globalization, along with financial liberalization and technological improvements, “financial stability” in line with the target of achieving price stability, has become one of the leading policy issues of central banks. However, I should point out that, although price stability has a commonly accepted and clear definition, I can say that it is much more difficult to define financial stability. The European Central Bank defines financial stability as the financial system capability to withstand shocks without impairing the transformation of savings to investment opportunities. Another definition draws attention to the absence of crises in the financial system and a robust financial sector. It is also defined as the efficient performance of the financial system in the event of shocks, stress situations and profound structural change.

For example, our collaboration with social enterprises has been focused on supporting the youth segment who are not in Employment, Education, and Training (also coined the "NEET Youth"). 9. COVID-19 has been a defining period for the world in many ways. While it has exacted a huge toll on society, it has also become a point of inflection for the adoption of digital financial services. The World Bank, in its Global Findex 2021 report released in June earlier this year, revealed that 79% of Malaysian adults use digital payments, of which 42% did so for the first time after the pandemic. This trend is evident in the strong adoption of e-payments recently, where e-payment usage in 2021 increased by 30% from 2020, a doubling of the long-term average growth rate prior to the pandemic. 10. To sustain this momentum, we will continue to work with the industry and key stakeholders to further promote e-payment adoption through a coordinated nationwide e-payment initiative under the banner of "e-Duit", with the tagline "Selamat, Senang dan Segera". 11. The evolution of digital financial services opens up enormous opportunities to deepen financial inclusion and expand access to previously excluded and underserved populations. But these opportunities can only be fully realised if our society is equipped to use digital financial services effectively, responsibly and confidently. Low awareness and trust, and limited digital and financial literacy, can become barriers to the adoption and effective use of digital financial products and services. 12.