samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Nevertheless, while the financial system is robust enough to navigate these troubled waters, prudence will once again guide banks to a safe harbour. This is not a financial crisis, but rather a mix of geopolitical, energy, trade and, above all else, humanitarian aspects that will require firm decisions in order to avoid greater evils. 6

A country that has joined the EU has the obligation to eventually join the euro area. However, it does not adopt the euro immediately upon its accession to the EU. Instead, it becomes what is called in EU-term a “Member State with a derogation”. Countries in the derogation phase have a number of obligations. •  Upon accession of the EU, new Member States are required to treat their exchange rate policy as a matter of common concern and to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy. The Treaty foresees that at some point following accession, new Member States will join the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II). •  Moreover, they have to regard their economic policies as a matter of common concern. The economic policies of these Member States become subject to coordination and surveillance at the EU level. This is an essential preparation for the monetary union. Members that once adopted the single currency have to put more emphasis on coordinating economic policies because monetary policy is no longer under national responsibility. III  But policy coordination is not sufficient. To join the euro area, Member States must fulfil a number of legal and economic convergence criteria. The legal convergence criteria oblige the euro area applicant countries to put in place the legal foundations for participation in the monetary union, of which central bank independence is a cornerstone.
But the plane, which is well built, will continue on its longhaul journey, with its flight path unchanged. There is consensus amongst leaders from the major political parties on the direction of India's economic reforms. Whichever party is in power will have to deliver the economic goods, which the Indian people deserve and demand. In June last year, India concluded its first comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Singapore. This is a strong signal that India intends to leverage on external economies and open itself  BIS Review 86/2006  3  further. The FTA will also act as the building block for India's comprehensive economic integration with Southeast Asia through the ASEAN-India FTA. Of course, India faces some serious challenges like inadequate infrastructure and rigid labour market. India must also find ways to make the bureaucracy more pro-business, especially towards foreign companies. In addition, India's growth in the last 10 years has been driven by its IT and services industry. But India cannot grow into a major economy on services alone. It will have to expand its manufacturing sector massively. Vietnam Next, Vietnam has grown strongly over the past decade. In the 1980s, there was a paradigm shift in the leadership's thinking. Vietnam implemented economic renovation, or doi moi, and the efforts are bearing fruit. Intel is building a chip plant in Ho Chi Minh city. Singapore, Taiwanese and Korean firms are among the biggest foreign investors in the country. The new generation Vietnamese leadership will press on with reform.

The subject of growth and development is complex and fascinating. There is no "one-size-fits-all" magic formula. But a country must have the necessary conditions of effective political leadership, sound institutions and social consensus on reforms, and the sharing of fruits. A country must also have the capacity to adapt as the world changes; otherwise, it will soon fall behind. I hope that your stay in Singapore over the next few days will be fruitful, enjoyable and memorable. Thank you for visiting us. BIS Review 86/2006  5
But we are not content with this and aim for a further improvement. The tasks as such, the proximity to economic policy and the international dimension should be sufficiently attractive. If, in addition, we can create an environment in which people can grow and feel they are an important part of the organisation, then I believe we can do still better. There are many connections between an open, clear relationship with the outside world on the one hand and our internal work on the other. Distinct goals have helped to focus internal operations and tighten the analysis. By making things less hush-hush we have also made it possible to include more people in a realistic discussion of monetary policy, for example. We are now open to criticism of a sharper and more specific nature and that has been good for us. The Riksbank's motto, Hinc robur et securitas (Hence strength and security), which used to allude to our earlier functions as the producer of notes and coins, for example, now refers at least as much to our analytical competence, the accuracy of our analyses and our efficiency as an authority. Management with an executive board One consequence of the new Riksbank Act, effective from the beginning of 1999, was that a new Executive Board, consisting of six members, is collectively responsible for all the Bank's operations.

However, this type of forecast has a relatively good accuracy in the short term (up to one year ahead). 6 The forecast produced by the now-casting is then entered into the large DSGE model and forms a basis for the model’s longer-term forecasts. The international forecast for all quarters is then also made outside of Ramses and entered as input into the model. As all models are simplifications of reality, however, the final analysis must always contain elements of assessment that correct the results from the model. In addition, some markets, for instance, the financial markets, are not entirely reflected in these models. 7 The latter play an important role in the current stage, which is affected substantially by the financial turbulence. General equilibrium models are an important analysis tool as they provide a consistent picture of the economy. They can therefore also be used for policy analysis and to analyse alternative scenarios. 4  F. E. Kydland and E. C. Prescott “Time to build and aggregate fluctuations”, Econometrica 50, 1982, 13451370. 5  O. J. Blanchard, “The state of macro”, NBER working paper series, August 2008. 6  See M. K. Andersson and M. Löf. Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2007:1. 7  C. E. Tovar. “DSGE models and central banks”. BIS Working Papers No 258. 2008. 2  BIS Review 121/2008  Some facts about economic cycles According to economic theory, fluctuations in growth thus arise as a result of various external shocks affecting the economy.
In another case, the supervisor could withdraw permission for whole types of models, as the FSA/PRA did for the commercial property models of UK Banks by requiring a substitute “simple slotting approach” to be used – which is still a model, but a very simple one. Then I think the debate becomes more around whether the relevant risks can be modelled, how easy it is for supervisors and firms to observe the performance of models, and the ability of supervisors to police the performance of models. None of this is easy. There is also a very good question around whether supervisors should supplement the use of firms’ models by developing their own models. In the US, the Federal Reserve has gone down this road, and in doing so advanced their use of stress testing. So far, we have gone down the road of pushing banks to improve their models, and to be more realistic about what the models can and cannot do. My guess is that we may eventually end up with greater international convergence of supervisory approaches on the use of models, and that would be a good thing in terms of more efficient supervision and use of our scarce resources. But I would note that today I have an open mind as to where that convergence will lead to in terms of the capital adequacy regime. Much of this speech has been about the incentives in the regime of capital adequacy for banks. I want to end with a few words on transparency.

The new standard was very much a response to the financial crisis, the first reform of the Accord to be backed by a remit from world leaders to effect real change on the global scale. It built on a number of more immediate domestic responses, including in the UK the FSA’s so-called 4–6–8 approach. The new standard requires more and better quality capital, and is a step change in capital adequacy. For the largest UK banks, and taking into account all of the changes brought in by Basel III, there is a seven-fold increase in the amount of Core Tier I capital, the highest quality of capital that must have the characteristics of equity which major banks are expected to hold. Under the Basel II regime, the Pillar I minimum requirement was £ of this highest quality capital for the largest five UK Banks. Compared to this, taking both capital minima and capital buffers together when Basel III is fully implemented the figure will be £ as measured in September 2013 (ie on a like-for-like basis in terms of the point in time). Breaking down this increase of £ in Core Tier I capital, the largest part £ is accounted for by the change in the definition of capital resources, a further £ relates to raising the minimum requirement from 2% to 4.5% of risk weighted assets (and changes to the risk weights), £ to the Basel III Capital Conservation Buffer, and £ to the Basel III Globally Significant Banks Buffer.
A platform creates value by connecting users—who could be consumers or suppliers—reduce search cost and make economic transactions that would have not happened otherwise possible. Businesses left and right are being disrupted by the platform movement: hotels by Airbnb, transportation services by the likes of Uber or Grab, and retail shops by e-commerce platforms. 7  Thais are especially keen on social media platforms, e-commerce, and social commerce. We are ranked among the top five countries with the highest share of ecommerce purchases, and this share is expected to keep increasing. For traditional businesses who do not adapt, this means more competition in a shrinking market. On the other hand, there are plenty of opportunities to be taken. By enabling their users to share assets, sharing platforms help eliminate the need for individual business to take on huge investment cost upfront. The direct connection and platform-based trust between buyers and sellers across the globe also provide opportunities for firms—especially SMEs—to design their own product flows, get direct customer feedbacks, and quickly expand their customer base like never before. 5. Excess global liquidity with historically high leverage The last trend I want to highlight this evening is excess global liquidity which has led to a historically high degree of leverage, along with the vulnerabilities that come with it. We have been living in the low-for-long interest rate environment since the Global Financial Crisis.

Now it becomes more and more clear that these trends will be the major forces that will shape the landscape and structure of our economy, and the pace and degree of changes will be faster and larger than before. On one hand, these changes could become big threats to your businesses and the economy as a whole if we don’t adapt. On the other hand, if we embrace these changes and recognize the many opportunities that come with them, we could ride this wave of changes forward. In doing this, business model transformation and large structural reform policies are needed in order to increase both the productivity and resiliency of the Thai economy. Let me end my talk by saying once again that we will not know with certainty what the Thai economy will look like in 2025. The structure, competitiveness, and resilience of our economy five years from now will depend critically on how we address the five major trends. Thank you very much for your kind attention. 10
), Fiscal policy Implementation in Oil-Producing Countries. IMF 2003 J. Wakeman-Linn, C. Aturupane, S. Danninger, K. Gvenetadze, N. Hobdari and E. Le Borgne, Managing Oil Wealth: The Case of Azerbaijan. IMF 2004 World Bank report No. 32700-TP: Country Assistance Strategy for Timor Leste. 2/8  was introduced in 2001. According to the rule, only the expected real return on the Fund is to be used. The rule has functioned as a budget guideline. Effects on the Norwegian economy The question may be asked as to which effects we can observe of petroleum revenue spending in the domestic economy. The risk of “Dutch disease”6 has been a common reference in the discussion on petroleum revenue spending. The Dutch disease occurs if spending is so high that the basis for internationally exposed industries is eroded and fluctuations in economic activity are amplified. As mentioned, in 1970s and 1980s there were clear symptoms of contamination. Norway’s fixed exchange rate policy in the years from 1986 to 1992 drove high inflation out of the economy, however. Our inflation targeting regime will achieve the same objective. It appears that the economy has again become more stable. And the fiscal rule has contributed to this. This is then a third positive result. Shifts in industry structure, with higher growth in sheltered industries, are a feature common to all developed countries. But, it may seem that this shift has occurred slightly faster in Norway than, for instance, among our Nordic neighbours. The changes have also been fairly considerable after 2002.

Let me develop the first point: The 2008 crisis illustrated that the so called « shadow banking sector » played an important role in propagating and amplifying financial instability throughout the financial system. Shedding some light on these entities and regulating them to prevent contagion and regulatory  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  arbitrage has been therefore a key milestone of the G20 Financial regulation agenda ever since. The Banque de France has been involved in this policy work from the outset. A first part of the work consisted in defining what the “shadow banking sector” is about. It does embody a wide variety of institutions worldwide which accomplish credit intermediation along with maturity transformation outside of the “traditional” banking sector. As an output, it transforms illiquid assets into liquid ones. The approach of shadow banking has progressively expanded to a variety of actors and activities: Money Markets Funds; Securitization, Repos and Securities Financing Transactions. The work dedicated to preventing the financial risks arising from the shadow banking system became intertwined with the work aiming at ending “too big to fail”. In the wake of the Globally Systemically Important Banks, the Financial Stability Board started working on identifying and defining a regulatory regime applicable to Globally Systemically Important Insurers (GSIIs), Non-Bank-Non Insurance SIFIs (NBNIs), Critical Market Infrastructures/CCPs. The focus of the work also shifted from monitoring/statistical reporting to rule making.
And so measures are taken by emerging markets in financial sector development to enhance and eventually liberalise the international mobility of investors and borrowers, and their funds, and the international mobility of financial instruments and financial institutions; in other words, they embrace financial globalisation. As we all know, there are risks to monetary and financial stability associated with such mobility, and events in the past two decades have indicated clearly that these risks are considerable. Many have pointed out that financial openness has to be supported by prudent  2  BIS Review 106/2009  macroeconomic policies and so financial openness serves also to impose needed discipline on policy making in emerging markets. I fear, however, that this is true only to a certain degree, in that the discipline imposed by capital mobility on emerging markets seems to be a lot tougher than that imposed on developed markets. The small size of emerging markets relative to the pool of international capital may be one reason behind this. The greater volatility of international capital relative to domestic capital is perhaps another. Also of concern is the willingness of some emerging market jurisdictions, in a perhaps doubtful attempt to attract the household names in international finance to set up shop as part of their strategies to develop their financial systems, to promulgate rules that may be unsuitable for their domestic circumstances.

My third issue is a reality. The reality here is that in finance, and perhaps in other areas, it is difficult if not impossible to find a textbook perfect market, where, for example, market participants are all price takers and not in a position – and therefore not having the incentive – to try and move markets in their favour. Fear or greed, fed by information or misinformation, stoked by manipulative or predatory behaviour by a few, often takes hold, to such an extent as to produce volatility well beyond prudent risk management parameters, threatening a complete meltdown of the financial system or other forms of systemic breakdown. As supervisors of financial institutions and regulators of financial markets, our duty is to do our best to prevent these situations from occurring, but we have to accept that we too are not perfect, particularly when supervision and regulation at the national level have their shortcomings in dealing with financial institutions and markets that are already global in nature. Whatever combination of market freedom and regulatory oversight one cares to design and try out, markets do fail, sometimes inflicting huge damage to the public interest, defined in terms of ensuring that the financial system operates effectively in support of the economy. The damage to the public interest could well be much greater than that arising from not allowing the free market to find its equilibrium on its own. We certainly hope that these situations do not occur too often.
I should note here that economic education has an important role to play in mitigating these challenges, which increasingly arise as debt becomes a more common part of the college experience. For example, financial literacy and the skills taught by educators have been demonstrated to better prepare young people for the management of their finances, enhancing their well-being. Financial literacy allows people to better understand the terms of student loans and the consequences of missed payments, and how to accumulate wealth.19 I strongly support the CEE’s efforts to bring economic knowledge to young people, as I believe that it is increasingly vital for everyone, and has an especially important role in fostering social and economic mobility. Other factors that can foster or inhibit social mobility are the practices of universities themselves. In some very recent work, Raj Chetty and his co-authors have documented the role that different universities play in fostering economic mobility. 20 From my perspective, the most important findings are that access to the best universities is very closely related to parent income—children from wealthier families are more likely to go to Ivy League schools, for example. Yet, those students from poorer families who actually are admitted to the best universities do just as well in their future earnings as those from more advantaged backgrounds. Part of the problem, aside from cost, is the legacy admission policies of elite schools—where children of alumni receive preferential access.

William C Dudley: The monetary policy outlook and the importance of higher education for economic mobility Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Council for Economic Education’s 56th Annual Financial Literacy &amp; Economic Education Conference, New York City, 6 October 2017. * * * Good afternoon. It is a pleasure to have the opportunity to speak at this Council for Economic Education (CEE) event, marking the CEE’s 56th Annual Financial Literacy and Economic Education Conference. Given the hard lessons of the financial crisis—and the economic challenges still facing many Americans—there are few goals more worthy than promoting greater financial and economic literacy. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System.1  Personal educational experience Before discussing the economic outlook and the role of education in income mobility, I will offer a few remarks on my own educational experience. While it may not be surprising that I have a Ph.D. in economics, the path that led me to the University of California, Berkeley, is a bit unusual. I started college in the 1970s at Columbia University. On the positive side, the professors were engaging, and I had the opportunity to read the great books of the university’s core contemporary civilization curriculum. But, I was troubled by the emphasis on grades and test taking. I wanted something that was more free-form.
If you, as a representative of a small business, would like to participate in our current poll, please pass your card to my colleagues, who are in the audience, or see me after the speech and we will be glad to add you as a respondent. Results from prior polls stressed the problem of access to capital. In response we held two workshops at the Bank last December. In the first workshop, senior officers from the Export-Import Bank, the Small Business Administration and the Department of Commerce described the various loan programs available to small businesses from their agencies, as well as programs to help identify markets. The second workshop reviewed the business plans of 40 small businesses and then matched them with potential lenders. We plan to hold a similar workshop in Upstate New York this year. As you know, even states that are wealthier, such as New York, have large pockets of poverty. So, we target some of our work specifically to low- and moderate-income groups. We have worked hard to help neighborhoods that face high foreclosure rates, although much remains to be done. We have provided housing advocates with the latest information on mortgage conditions, via mortgage briefs, roundtables, presentations and newsletters. We have now developed an interactive online tool that shows monthly delinquency and foreclosure conditions, which we believe will aid the work of housing counselors and other parties seeking to help these communities.

Singapore can offer a platform for Indian firms to build up their global exposure and branding. India is also a promising investment destination for Singapore firms. Under CECA, our domestic banks are allowed to open up to 15 branches in India, and they are in the process of preparing for expansion into this market. To deepen the linkage, MAS will allow Indian banks that meet our prudential standards to expand their presence in Singapore. We have approved the entry of two Indian banks which do not yet have a presence in Singapore. 18. The Japan-Singapore Economic Agreement for a New Age Partnership (JSEPA) has brought a new era of closer economic cooperation. Investments by Japan and Singapore in each other s markets have increased. Japanese companies which are looking to diversify some of their business operations into Southeast Asia can use Singapore as the gateway. Singapore-based companies can take advantage of not just the JSEPA but bilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) Singapore has signed with other countries to expand into the region and beyond. When I was in Tokyo, I suggested that the JSEPA should be reviewed to see where it could be further broadened and deepened. The Japanese leaders were receptive. 19. The Middle East is another promising region. Middle Eastern investors are looking for suitable investment destinations and products both in their own countries and outside. Singapore has a good brand name in the Middle East and awareness about us is increasing. There are many opportunities for our businesses there. 20.