samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The other are possibly more recent. 1. Is the financing of the economy still guaranteed? The answer is yes. For private individuals, housing loans in France are cheaper, more abundant, and safer than in all other major European economies. In a context of rising interest rates (estimated at an average of 1.84% excluding fees and insurance in November, compared with 1.12% in January), total outstanding housing loans were still 5.9% higher in October 2022 than a year earlier, and over 97% of these loans carry a fixed rate: this is a decisive advantage. For businesses, outstanding bank loans are rising sharply (up 8.6% in October): there has been a shift in the balance of corporate financing towards bank credit as the cost is more contained (rise of 85 basis points) than that of bond financing (up 350 basis points). Overall the real economy's financing needs remain largely covered, thanks to the work of the banks. 2. Are French banks and insurers solid? The answer again is yes, on several levels. French banks and insurers are in a solid financial and prudential position: the CET1 capital ratio of the six main banking groups is close to its all-time high (14.5% at endSeptember) and insurers'1 solvency capital requirement coverage ratio increased in the first half of 2022 to 263%. Bank profitability should also gradually be boosted by the orderly rise in interest rates. In addition, as highlighted in an ACPR study, French insurers make little use of the types of derivative products that UK pension funds use.

Yet the climate risks we face have not subsided, far from it: if the climate transition is put off and carried out in a disorderly manner, the associated costs to our economies will be all the greater. The current context of uncertainty and volatility means that we should increase our vigilance regarding all risks, including those related to the climate, by making progress on the disclosure of climate-related information – which will become compulsory for European banks in 2023 under ESG Pillar 3 – and on how to operationalise transition plans and stress tests. On this latter issue, three European supervisory bodies will carry out an essential stress test in 2024 to assess in particular the transition risks to the entire financial sector linked to the implementation of the "fitfor-55" package. The idea that we could make a short-term trade-off between climate risks and economic and financial risks is misleading: the two are unfortunately increasing in parallel, and, in the longer term, the Russian crisis is yet another reason for us to accelerate our energy diversification and sovereignty through the use of non-fossil sources. What we need then, over the next two to three years, is to chart a "path of compatibility": if we are to be consistent, any measures to support non-fossil fuels, on the supply or demand side – the famous "price shields" – must remain targeted and temporary.
We will also collate and present the information graphically to help highlight anomalies in testing schedules, and to facilitate the efforts of systems to coordinate test scheduling where feasible. 4  The relevant information can now be found on the pages of the Joint Year 2000 Council. BIS Review 56/1998  -9-  Primarily, I see this as an exercise in peer pressure. If we list every country in the world on our web site and the public can see that some countries have scheduled mandatory external tests of their major trading and settlement systems, while other countries do not provide any information, that second country may come under greater pressure to organize an external testing program. This is our stated goal. We will simply have blanks for those countries that do not respond to our requests for information. Of course, if the Joint Year 2000 Council is going to encourage testing to such an extent, then it is only appropriate that we also help provide some tools for those countries trying to get a serious testing effort underway in a short amount of time. This is another of our high-priority projects. We will be working with members of the External Consultative Committee -- including representatives of the Global 2000 Coordinating Group, S.W.I.F.T., and the World Bank -- to rapidly develop a series of documents that help countries set up testing programs and overcome common obstacles. We intend to issue these documents broadly by the end of the summer, and some parts well before that.

Over the time remaining until January 2000, we hope to use the Joint Year 2000 Council as a means of gathering a better picture of the state of global preparations, and to help direct resources and attention to those regions that appear to be faltering in their efforts. We will use the information provided for our web site and the discussions with members of our External Consultative Committee as our primary resources in seeking to identify “hot spots” where more urgent efforts are needed. If we identify regions where more needs to be done, our first step will be to work through the relevant national financial supervisors and regulators to increase the urgency of efforts in their jurisdiction. We may also involve multilateral institutions, such as the World Bank, to help increase national attention on the issue. I do not believe that calling public attention to problems in specific countries would be a constructive step for us to take at this stage as we are still trying to build cooperation and our current information is incomplete. In this context, I would also point out that the market itself will begin to bring strong pressures to bear on specific firms and markets that exhibit signs of being ill-prepared during the course of 1999. In conjunction with preparations for Y2K, the recent discussion of the Joint Year 2000 Council with the External Consultative Committee raised several important issues.
There are similarities between today’s financial turmoil and the Swedish bank crisis The current financial turmoil and the Swedish bank crisis actually have a number of common denominators. Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff together with Carmen Reinhart of Maryland University has pointed to a number of similarities between the US mortgage turmoil and a number of earlier financial crises, including the Swedish bank crisis at the beginning of the 1990s. Some common denominators for the period prior to the outbreak of the crisis include a rapid increase in property and share prices, the fact that the current account deficit was large and growing and that economic growth had declined from an earlier high level. One important difference is that the exchange rate regime has not played a prominent role in the US case. Too low risk premiums and abstruse risks But it is also possible to find more specific parallels to the Swedish bank crisis. In both cases lending has increased rapidly at the same time as the banks have underestimated and therefore not taken sufficient payment for the credit risks. In Sweden this was linked to the banks – after decades of credit regulation – lacking a developed strategy for managing and pricing credit risk. When deregulation came in the mid-1980s they were quite simply unused to loan losses. But such tendencies could also be seen prior to the recent market turmoil. For a long time, risk premiums for credit risk-related securities were remarkably low. The uncertainty has led to an increase.

The stability of the financial system was thus definitely never threatened. But it is regrettable that we still have not managed to create  BIS Review 30/2008  7  an adequate regulatory framework in this field, more than fifteen years after our own bank crisis. In countries where they have slightly more experience of bank failures, such as the United States and Canada, they have learn that special institutions and arrangements are required to manage institutions that are experiencing financial problems. One of the most important lessons is that the authorities must be able to intervene as quickly as possible when a bank faces problems. There are several reasons for this. The first is to put pressure on the management and owners of the bank to rectify the situation and hopefully to prevent the situation deteriorating further. The so-called Savings and Loans crisis in the United States in the 1980s become more costly when the authorities failed to take action in time. This meant that in the United States at the beginning of the 1990s they introduced a system with so-called prompt corrective action. This means that the authorities quite simply are obliged by law to intervene at certain specified thresholds. In my opinion it is desirable that Finansinspektionen (the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority) should also have a large toolbox of measures that can be taken at an early stage. It should be possible to intensify these measures gradually as problems worsen.
Attention at the highest management level is therefore vital to ensure the formulation of the most appropriate ICT strategies for banks to remain competitive. The new banking environment is about differentiating banking products and services that provide increased choices, control, security and accessibility. The ability of financial institutions to deliver products and services in the most efficient and effective manner will be key to determining performance and relevance. In this area, financial institutions in Malaysia have not been behind in embracing the rapidly evolving technologies and in taking initiatives to enhance the delivery channels. There are 12 banks offering Internet banking facilities while five have introduced mobile banking. The adoption of chip technology now also offers new forms of payment choices and higher security to the public. The introduction of the Bankcard to replace the magnetic stripe ATM cards and efforts towards migrating to EMV compliant credit cards before end-2004 is indeed an important step forward. A further development has been the introduction of the MEPS Cash, the national e-purse scheme as an alternative electronic payment mode to using cash for making retail payments. The ATM machines of the participating banks and terminals at retail outlets are being upgraded to facilitate MEPS Cash transactions. With these developments, specific programmes need to be implemented to promote the usage of MEPS Cash among the public and business entities. Indeed, this e-payment program is a good start to promote a wider use an acceptance of this means of payment.

These changes can be good or bad for those affected by them. Change therefore leads to risk, the prospect of gain or loss and the risk of loss is something that we must all be aware of. To be aware of risks does not mean eliminating them from our lives, which is certainly impossible, nor does it mean that we should do nothing about risks and accept consequences fatalistically. It means: we must manage risk. To manage risks we must decide what risks to avoid and how we can avoid them; what risks to accept and on what terms to accept them; what new risks to take on and so on. Both theory and practice of risk management have developed enormously in the last two and a half decades. The theory has developed to the point where the risk management is now regarded as a distinct sub-field of the theory of finance and risk management has become a separate subject in the master’s and MBA programs. The subject has attracted a huge amount of intellectual energy not just from finance specialists but also from specialists in physics. The most important factor contributed to this transformation of risk management was, as I mentioned at the beginning, the high level of instability in financial markets. The other factors were rapid developments in information technology, huge increase in trading activity and development of new financial instruments, namely, derivative instruments.
A new 2020 update, Maddison-Project Working Paper WP-15. 4  businesses. Working at the grassroots level, through consumer-oriented programmes, we managed over 110,000 overindebtedness cases in 2022, finding solutions to help households get out of challenging financial situations. We further ensure that all consumers can exercise their right to open a bank account and have access to associated means of payment. In 2022, we set up a one-stop consumer helpline, which can be reached by dialling 3414, to make it easier to access our services. For companies, we offer support to help very small, small and medium-sized enterprises get set up and run their business. In 2022, around 9,000 entrepreneurs benefited from this service. We support companies through credit mediation, which helped to save around 8,000 jobs in 2022. We also provide a rating system that scores businesses according to their financial health, on top of digital diagnostic tools for business leaders, designed to support the digital transformation of our economy. Finally, the war in Ukraine was a stark reminder of the urgent need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and therefore make a successful energy transition. To support the economy in this transformation, we are developing a climate indicator to measure the progress made by companies in the climate transition. Our work to support the regions extends to high schools and post-secondary institutions, as we execute France’s national economic and financial literacy strategy.

But with growth slowing, I anticipate the unemployment rate to increase from its current level of 3-1/2 percent to around 4-1/2 percent over the next year. Turning to inflation, I expect cooling global demand and supply improvements to result in declining inflation for goods. These factors should contribute to inflation slowing further from its current rate to around 3 percent this year. While services inflation is still a sticking point, I expect overall inflation to come back down to 2 percent in the next few years as further tightening of monetary policy realigns the balance between demand and supply. Conclusion I'll close by saying that the monetary policy gear is turning. But it will take time for supply and demand to come back into proper alignment and balance, so we must keep moving. While the route ahead is still uncertain, I am fully confident we will return to a sustained period of price stability. 1 John C. Williams, Peeling the Inflation Onion , remarks at the Economic Club of New  York, delivered via videoconference (November 28, 2022); John C. Williams, A Bedrock Commitment to Price Stability , remarks at the 2022 U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce National Conference, Phoenix, Arizona (October 3, 2022). 2 John C. Williams, A Steady Anchor in a Stormy Sea , remarks at SNB-FRB-BIS High-  Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility, Zurich, Switzerland (November 9, 2022).
2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Like the chart for employment in all 12 of the Fed’s districts, the three districts’ employment levels are indexed to 100 in 1990. You will see that, at the end of June, the index stands at 150 for the Eleventh District, 125 for the Twelfth and 103 for the Second. Nonagricultural employment growth in Texas has compounded at an annual rate of 1.95 percent over 21½ years; that of California at 0.57 percent; and New York’s at 0.19 percent. If you are interested in the output of their workers over this same period, the compound annual growth rate of Texas GDP is 3.6 percent; California’s is 2.59 percent; and New York’s 2.06 percent. Now, let’s look at job creation in Texas since June 2009, the date that the National Bureau of Economic Research (or NBER, the body that “officially” dates when a recession starts and ends) declared the recent economic recession to have ended. There are several ways to calculate Texas’ contribution to national job creation from June 2009 through the end of June 2011. One is to look at the number of jobs created by all 50 states, including those that have lost jobs since the nation’s anemic recovery began. Using this metric, through June of this year Texas has accounted for 49.9 percent of net new jobs created in the United States.

This is also in line with expectations in the money and foreign exchange markets. The interest rate was last raised in March. In line with the forecast in the March Inflation Report, there are prospects of another interest rate increase in the second quarter – at the monetary policy meeting in May or June – and a further increase thereafter. 2  BIS Review 39/2006  Conclusion Increased globalisation and the ensuing terms of trade improvements have exposed the Norwegian economy to a significant upward income shock. This has amplified the domestic upswing. So far, however, strong growth impulses have not led to major imbalances in the labour market or strong upward wage and price pressures. This may be seen as an indication that the macroeconomic framework, most notably the fiscal and monetary policy regimes, has been quite successful so far in shielding the Norwegian economy from excessive fluctuations. More importantly, as long as we adhere to the macroeconomic framework, it will shield the economy when oil prices eventually fall and our terms of trade are reversed. Thank you for your attention! BIS Review 39/2006  3
Exchange Rate Developments Real Effective Exchange Rate (CPI Based)  YTL/Basket (0.5 Euro-0.5 USD)  1.85  180  1.75  170  1.65  160 150  1.55  140  1.45  130 1.35  Jan-06  Jul-05  Jan-05  Jul-04  Jan-04  Jul-03  Jan-03  Jul-02  2-Jan-06  2-Sep-05  2-May-05  2-Jan-05  2-Sep-04  2-May-04  2-Jan-04  2-Sep-03  2-Jan-03  2-May-03  2-Sep-02  100 2-May-02  1.15 2-Jan-02  110 Jan-02  120  1.25  Source: CBRT. It is observed that the stability in YTL-denominated bond issues by foreign banks, an indicator of demand for YTL, has a tendency to continue. In the first quarter of 2006, there was no remarkable change in the maturity structure of current securities compared to the last quarter of the previous year (Graph 23). 14  BIS Review 67/2006  Graph 23. YTL-Denominated Bonds Issued by Foreign Banks 5,000  3500 3000  4,000  Amount (Million YTL)  Amount of Issue (Million YTL)  4,500 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500  2500 2000 1500 1000 500  Quarter of Issue  2020  2018  2016  2014  2012  2010  2008  0 2006  1.Quarter 2006  4.Quarter 2005  3.Quarter 2005  2.Quarter 2005  1.Quarter 2005  0  Year of Maturity  Source: CBRT.

Accordingly, the goods group inflation should be realized at about 3 percent in order to achieve the 2006 target. However, the acceleration in price increases in the items that is not under the control of the monetary policy, such as fresh fruits and vegetables, oil, basic metal and gold, reduces this possibility. At this point, it is meticulously emphasized that price increases in the said items are to a large extent temporary and that monetary policy will not react strongly as far as the secondary effects remain limited. Another basic risk relating to the upcoming period is the difficulty in foreseeing the global risk appetite and the course of international liquidity conditions. The improvement in the quality of current account financing and favorable developments in public finance in the recent period are considered to increase the endurance of the economy against likely shocks. However, it is a fact that any shock that may come from the said direction in the current situation carries with it the potential to affect our economy unfavorably. In case of such an event, our aim will be to ensure the consistency of inflation with the medium-term targets. In this context, by diffusing the policy reaction over time, the impact of exogenous shocks will be eased without any harm to price stability. Distinguished Guests, Price stability is a sine qua non precondition with respect to macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth. Significant steps have been taken in this direction. The CBRT will continue to fulfill its tasks in carrying these achievements forward.
The task of the central banks was to provide the general public with money in the form of banknotes and coins that did not entail any credit risk and that inspired confidence – what was known as central bank money. This task included price stability, that is, that the central banks guaranteed the long-term value of the money. To begin with, the central banks had this task parallel to commercial banks, which issued their own banknotes. Then money from different issuers could have different values, depending on how much money had been issued, and exchange rates could arise between different types of money. Eventually, the central banks were also given the responsibility for creating a uniform standard. In Sweden, this took place in 1904, when the Riksbank was given a monopoly on issuing banknotes and commercial banks stopped issuing them. In time, the banks were able to develop payment channels that enabled the general public to use their account balances as money. In the beginning this involved cheques and gradually card payments were developed. In Sweden, there were also state initiatives to make payments more effective. In the 1920s, the Postgirot system was created, which enable efficient transfers of money to and from accounts in the system. Just over 20 years later, the banks emulated this and created their own joint system, Bankgirot. All of these systems are examples of account-based means of payment.

Digitalisation driving development The rapid decline in the use of cash in Sweden is part of a broad digitalisation trend that affects society as a whole. Technological advances have given us, for instance, new more efficient payment solutions such as real-time payments with the Swish mobile application, which is used for transactions that used to be mostly cash-based. Similarly, mobile phones can function as card terminals, which gives small business owners increased opportunity to accept cards. Swedish banks also have a tradition of cooperating with one another when innovative payment solutions are introduced on the market. In this way, they can make better use of network effects and more quickly attain a critical mass of users. Moreover, Sweden has a highly-educated population that is willing to adopt innovations in the IT field. Technological advances that lead to more efficient payments, cooperation between producers of services who make it possible to fully utilise the network effects, changed consumption patterns and a technology-friendly population are a powerful combination when it comes to creating changes in payment habits! In an international perspective, Sweden and the other Nordic countries are way ahead in this change process. However, the trend is global – an increasing number of people want to use digital solutions to pay and fewer want to use paper-based payments, including banknotes and coins. In particular, the younger generations are quick to adopt digital technology. It is probably therefore only a question of time before more countries find themselves in the same situation as we have in Sweden today.