samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Globally, actual and expected demand have increased, output has been contained and inventories have seen some depletion. The baseline scenario of this Report adjusts the projection for the average price of Brent and WTI upwards, placing it at around USD 59 and USD 56 per barrel in 2018 and 2019. The combined effect of higher copper and oil prices and adjustments in the prices of other exports and imports have led to an improvement in the terms of trade, particularly this year. Thus, considering the period 2017-2019, the terms of trade will accumulate an increase of around 10%, which compares with the 7% estimate of last September. Turning to our activity and demand projections, the baseline scenario assumes no major changes from September. This year, the economy will grow 1.4%, inside the range expected in September. For 2018, the growth projection in the 2.5% to 3.5% range is maintained. Part of the improvement with respect to 2017, particularly during the first half of the year, owes to the low comparison base of the mining sector. This same scenario assumes that non-mining GDP will have a more paced recovery. The gradual return to higher GDP expansion rates leans on a favorable external scenario, the end of the adjustment of mining and housing investment, the absence of significant macroeconomic imbalances and a clearly expansionary monetary policy stance. A working assumption is that in 2018 the economy will receive a fiscal impulse in accordance with the approved budget.

While a given physical manifestation of climate change – a flood or storm – may not directly affect a corporate bond’s value, policy action to promote the transition towards a low-carbon economy could spark a fundamental reassessment. Take, for example, the IPCC’s estimate of a carbon budget that would likely limit global temperature rises to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. That budget amounts to between 1/5th and 1/3rd world’s proven reserves of oil, gas and coal. 24  20  See AM Best – Special Report: Asbestos Losses Fueled by Rising Number of Lung Cancer Cases (2013) www.ambest.com/ambv/bestnews/presscontent.aspx?altsrc=0&refnum=20451. 21  See Roe v Arch Coal Inc et al, Case: 4:15-cv-00910-NAB, United States District Court, Eastern District of Missouri, 9 June 2015 and Lynn v Peabody Energy Corporation et al, Case: 4:15-cv-00916-AGF, United States District Court, Eastern District of Missouri, 11 June 2015. Note that as at 1 September 2015 the defences to these claims were yet to be filed. 22  Loss and damage refers to impact of climate change not mitigated by reductions in emissions. The UNFCCC Warsaw agreement in 2013 discussed support for measures to address loss and damage. See http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2013/cop19/eng/10a01.pdf. 23  The largest UK insurers hold or manage in excess of £ of CRE and infrastructure assets, and have committed to further such investments in future. For instance, six major insurers pledged to invest £ into UK domestic infrastructure in 2013 as part of the Government’s national infrastructure plan (see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f74e176-5c41-11e3-b4f3-00144feabdc0.html).
By regions, it is worth noting the widening divergence between the United States – with a more consolidated recovery – and other developed economies, such as the Eurozone and Japan, which have made further downward revisions. In the emerging world, prospects are also weaker, with Latin America making the bigger downward corrections. In the baseline scenario, our trading partners are expected to grow 3.5 and 3.9 percent in 2015 and 2016, respectively (table 2). In the baseline scenario, external financial conditions and prospects will be less expansionary than they were this year, but will remain favorable from a historical perspective. In the United States, the Federal Reserve Board ended its asset purchase program and is expected to raise the federal funds rate in 2015, probably pushing US long-term rates up. The Eurozone and Japan have pursued a more expansionary monetary policy, because of weaker economies and deflationary risks, and further efforts in this direction are expected in the coming quarters. Thus, long-term interest rates in the main developed economies continued to recede or remained low. The better relative performance of the United States compared with the rest of the world has led to an overall strengthening of the dollar, affecting the other currencies, including the Chilean peso. In Chile, its trajectory has also been influenced by the adjustment of the local macroeconomic scenario, changes in monetary policy and the decline in copper prices (figure 8). The drop in commodity prices has triggered important changes in the world inflation outlook.

Besides, many people benefit from low interest rates as they are also homebuyers, taxpayers, entrepreneurs and workers whose companies are benefiting. BILD: In Germany the adverse effects are predominant. Making provision for retirement is becoming increasingly difficult… Draghi: Remember, what counts is what you earn on savings in real terms, i.e. interest minus inflation. This is higher today than it was on average in the 1990s. At that time you might have had a higher interest rate on your Sparbuch (savings account), but we often had an inflation rate that was higher still. So the interest looked good at first, but the real return was in fact much lower. Moreover, people can influence how much they get on their savings even in times of low interest rates. They don’t just have to keep the money in savings accounts but can invest in other ways. The Bundesbank has recently shown that the average return on all German household assets is close to 2%. BILD: So, are the German savers themselves to blame? Draghi: No. But there are alternatives when investing savings. In the United States savers had to face seven years of zero interest rates. The financial system – banks and insurers – nevertheless still worked. Money was invested in a variety of ways which in the end enabled a decent return. BILD: Of all people, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who has supported you for years, is now among your strongest critics, saying your policies are damaging savers and thereby strengthening populist parties.
I would like to say that, as we all know, the Spanish financial system has undergone intense restructuring and recapitalisation, as well as a significant consolidation process. I am confident that Spanish banks are prepared for this rigorous exercise. Setting up the Single Supervisory Mechanism and making it operational is not going to be a simple task. Both from the procedural and organisational standpoints, it will be a complex process, requiring great effort, and will be a major responsibility for those who take on the leadership of this new European Union-wide institution. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Ms Sabine Lautenschläger’s responsibilities as member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the SSM place her in a unique position. I have no doubt that her intervention will be extremely interesting and informative to us all. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Every single detail of micro line is visible, and it is the result of a meticulous and love of his work of a single artist, who worked with a view to attain the highest standard of perfection. Banknote printing of today, unlike in the early days of banknote history, uses sophisticated machinery for the highest degree of consistency. Millions of pieces are printed every day to the exact quality standard. If you take two pieces of banknotes of any denomination, chances are they are identical in every respect. But misprints do occur though very rare. Occasionally, members of the public get excited when they are in possession of irregular banknotes with some smudge of ink or more seriously incomplete portrait of certain icons. While we at Bank Negara will do everything we can to ensure every single banknote is fit for usage by removing any irregular ones from circulation, currency collectors are willing to pay a handsome premium to own imperfect banknotes. Dato’ Sharuddin, the President of the Malaysian Numismatic Heritage Club who is here with us today might have seen some of these irregular banknotes. But unfortunately, we at Bank Negara are never been able to get hold of such pieces so that we can exchange them. This despite all the effort made to retrieve such banknotes from circulation. I guess this gives credence to the economic axiom, scarcity enhances value. Banknotes are art masterpieces in their own right.
This will be an important piece of market infrastructure that helps demonstrate Hong Kong’s commitment not only to technological innovation but also to cross-border collaboration to promote more efficient trade and financial flows for the benefit of our businesses and peoples. UK and Others 6. I am also pleased to report that the HKMA has expanded and strengthened our ties with several other overseas authorities in the area of fintech collaboration in addition to Singapore. For example, we signed a Fintech Cooperation Agreement with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) of the UK in December last year. Later this morning, a colleague from Project Innovate of the UK FCA will share with us their experiences in fintech development. Moreover, the London-Hong Kong RMB Forum, which was first set up in 2012, has recently been expanded to become “London-Hong Kong Financial Services Forum” so as to cover wider areas such as fintech and the Belt and Road Initiative. This year’s annual meeting of the Forum will be held in Hong Kong in December, and is expected to be attended by high level government and private sector representatives from both sides to discuss a whole range of financial collaboration issues. 7. I should perhaps mention that we are also in active discussions with some other jurisdictions, including Switzerland, which share a common interest in mutual cooperation in promoting fintech. I hope to be able to report more news in the not too distant future. Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area 8.

There are two categories of awards, both of which are open to Shenzhen and Hong Kong-based regulated financial institutions. The first is for the use of fintech, while the second is for cross-border financial innovation. It is a prestigious award and I would encourage Hong Kong financial institutions to take part and showcase their achievements. The Director-General of OFDS will share with us more details about this exciting competition in the next session. Soft-landing scheme 11. The second initiative is a mutual referral system for fintech firms – this is sometimes called “soft-landing”. Under this programme, the OFDS will provide support to Hong Kong fintech firms that want to establish a presence in Shenzhen, perhaps with a view to using it as a springboard to tap into the enormous market of Mainland China. 12. To better utilise this valuable opportunity, we are working with our strategic partner, Cyberport, on the establishment of cross-border soft-landing facilities in Shenzhen. Such an arrangement would give qualified Hong Kong fintech firms access to the business support from OFDS, which would be helpful for these firms to expand their business to the Mainland. At the same time, Cyberport will leverage on this platform in Shenzhen to assist Mainland fintech companies to establish operations in Hong Kong. 13. Given the geographical proximity between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, I have no doubt that this collaboration will further enhance Hong Kong’s role as the springboard to help homegrown and overseas firms reaching out to the Mainland market. Talent development programme 14.
That is why we are so careful in our inflation forecasts and in monitoring inflation expectations two years out: if the current high levels of inflation do not signal a deviation away from convergence within two years, they can be tolerated. Otherwise, they simply cannot. In other words, if inflation expectations over that term were above the target, they would call for immediate action in the form of a contractionary monetary policy. As previously shown, in Chile this has never happened, which is a significant difference with other countries. However, it is important to emphasize that it has not happened because the market clearly understands that the Central Bank will do whatever is necessary for that not to occur. The messages we have delivered, including the moderate withdrawal of the monetary stimulus, point precisely in that direction. In this context, a string of more intense and persistent shocks ended up causing a depreciation of the peso that was also larger and longer lasting, which via second-round effects has put more pressure on medium-term inflation. Also, the labor market proved more resilient, a sign of smaller gaps in the economy. This limited the downward correction of nontradable inflation. Thus, the Board of the Central Bank decided to downplay the monetary stimulus, at a pace that has obviously accommodated incoming news, especially their effects on the inflation forecast two years ahead.

The fall in oil prices in 2014 led to a further reduction in the key policy rate in Norway. Chart: Gradual normalisation of monetary policy Last week, Norges Bank raised the key policy rate for the first time in seven years. If the economy evolves as currently envisaged, last week’s decision will be the beginning of a gradual normalisation of the interest rate level. This is good news. It means that the Norwegian economy is performing well. The effects of the fall in oil prices in 2014 have unwound. The economy has shown solid growth in recent years and the labour market has been improving. The upturn in trading partners’ economies, higher oil prices and low interest rates have lifted growth in Norway. The outlook for the Norwegian economy implies that the key policy rate will be raised in the years ahead. Capacity utilisation is close to a normal level. Underlying inflation is close to the 2% inflation target. The key policy rate is being raised to prevent pressures in the economy from intensifying and triggering a surge in prices and wages. Raising the rate also reduces the risk of a renewed rapid rise in property prices and debt. High price and wage inflation and a further buildup of financial imbalances would increase the risk of a sharp economic downturn further out. There are a number of factors to suggest that the key policy rate should be raised at a gradual and cautious pace. An environment of low global interest rates limits the room for manoeuvre.
So it should not come as a surprise to see continued outflows from low-yielding euro area bond markets. But not all investors are willing or able to assume large amounts of foreign exchange risk on their balance sheets, particularly when the direction of exchange rate movements might be less predictable than during the run-up to the launch of a major monetary policy measure, such as asset purchases. Returns on US Treasuries adjusted for foreign exchange risk, however, have fallen steadily as the government bond yield curve in the United States has flattened. You can see this on the righthand side. Since about mid-2017 the yield of a hedged ten-year US Treasury has been below that of its German equivalent. There are two factors, in my view, that might help explain the observed persistence of capital 4/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  flows. The first has to do with the “traditional” stock effect of asset purchases.5 Central bank asset purchase programmes effectively constrain the supply of bonds available to private price-sensitive investors. So, the share of outstanding central government bonds held by the private sector – the so-called “free float” – has declined measurably as a result of our cumulative purchases, also when taking into account the considerable amount of buy-and-hold investors. The implication is that some euro area fixed income securities are increasingly hard to come by, or come with a price tag unattractive for more short-term orientated investors. This may incentivise some market participants to roll over their international asset allocations instead.

For the euro area and for the confidence of its citizens, 2016– 2017 is the crucial time to act: I had the opportunity to discuss these proposals in greater depth a few days ago, and I hope that our exchange will further this debate. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  I will finish with a few words about the Banque de France itself. When you heard me in September, I presented my view of the three main tasks of the Banque de France: monetary strategy, financial stability, economic service, via its branch network. With the staff of the Banque de France, we firmly believe in these tasks and in their future, and that is why our ambition is to be an exemplary public service, even more efficient, more innovative, and more visible in France and Europe. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
For Africa, Islamic finance has tremendous opportunities to support the nation’s development and economic needs. I end my remarks with these words: “Actions Speak Louder Than Words” Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

Norman Chan: Self-made life pension Remarks by Mr Norman T L Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Philanthropy for Better Cities Forum, Hong Kong, 20 September 2018. * * * Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen 1. One of the biggest challenges in many societies in recent decades is how to ensure that the elderly have sufficient income or financial means to maintain a decent retirement life. Many governments have introduced different forms of pay-as-you-go retirement support schemes, which unfortunately have now proved to be hard to sustain fiscally in the longer run if the population is ageing rapidly. 2. The Hong Kong population is also ageing. While we celebrate having the longest life expectancy in the world, with women reaching 87 and men 81, this also creates tremendous challenges for retirement protection. In the context of retirement protection, I can divide the population into three groups: high income people who have accumulated significant amount of savings and (i) wealth during their working life. They have the financial means to take good care of themselves during retirement and we need not worry about them; the underprivileged, working poor or lifelong poor. This group of people depends crucially on the social safety net provided by the Government as they don’t have the ability or financial means to look after themselves. In Hong Kong, the Government (ii) support mainly takes the form of Comprehensive Social Security Assistance, highly subsidized housing, health care and education.
For example, the process of private sector balance sheet repair is nearing an end and the global stance of fiscal policy is shifting from contractionary to expansionary. Any rise in potential productivity growth would also boost the equilibrium rate. The scope for the equilibrium rate to rise will also be greater if spare capacity is larger than currently estimated. 11 See Carney, M (2018), ‘Guidance, Contingencies and Brexit’. 12 For example, as explained by Richard Clarida in his speech ‘Data Dependence and US Monetary Policy’, 27 November 2018. 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7  In the MPC’s projections published last week, the balance of headwinds to growth and more accommodative policies are expected to return global growth to around potential rates by the end of the year (Table 1). Table 1: MPC projects global growth likely to settle around potential rates Projections Average 1998-2007  2018  2019  2020  2021  Memo: potential  PPP-weighted  4  3½  3¼  3¼  3½  3½  UK-weighted  3  2½  2  2  2  2¼  Sources: Bank of England, Eurostat, IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), ONS, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bank calculations. Notes: 2018-21 figures show annual average growth rates. Potential growth is calculated as an average from 2019-2021. This is the most likely scenario unless there are shocks from the other two cycles.

That’s why the FPC has acted to limit the share of high loan-to-income mortgages UK banks can originate, the PRA has tightened standards on consumer credit and the Bank is monitoring closely the growth in leveraged lending. 13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  13  The second reason for caution is the possibility of a more material slowdown in China. China is the one major economy in which all major financial imbalances have materially worsened. It may be the exception that proves the rule that financial imbalances cause recessions. While China’s economic miracle over the past three decades has been extraordinary, its post-crisis performance has relied increasingly on one of the largest and longest running credit booms ever, with an associated explosion of shadow banking. Total Social Financing has increased from 120% to 223% of GDP since 2008. In parallel, the non-bank financial sector has increased from around 20% of GDP to over 70% today, with developments echoing those in the pre-crisis US including off-balance sheet vehicles with large maturity mismatches, sharp increases in repo financing, and large contingent liabilities of both borrowers and banks. Chinese authorities have begun taking measures to manage these risks. Growth in Total Social Financing is now in line with that of nominal GDP (Chart 10). The shadow banking sector is being restructured. But there is a tension between reducing the risks from high debt and supporting the economy.