samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Further, the banking system is concentrated to a few large banks and these are tightly interconnected. This means that financial unease can spread and problems in one major bank can affect not only the Swedish financial market, but our entire region. Several other countries with large banking systems have introduced or are planning to introduce leverage ratio requirements of around 5 per cent. So the introduction of a global leverage ratio requirement is a step in the right direction, but we on the Basel Committee have agreed that further measures are needed to reinforce global financial stability and reduce the risk of future financial crises. The internal models have caused confidence to decline... In recent years, confidence in the banks’ internal models and calculations of risk weights has declined. Regulators as well as banks and market participants have begun to doubt whether the capital requirements reflect the banks’ risks in a correct way and whether they enable comparable capital relations between different banks. In many countries the banks’ risk weights have fallen substantially over time. This has been evident with regard to the major Swedish banks over the past ten years. It is largely because the use of internal models has increased during this period.

The ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment has gone a long way towards ensuring adequate recognition and provisioning of NPLs, but there is still a legacy stock of NPLs on many  3  For a discussion of the “switching costs” created by relationship lending see Kim, M., D. Kliger, and B. Vale (2003), “Estimating Switching Costs: The Case of Banking”, Journal of Financial Intermediation Vol. 12, Issue 1. 4  Brunnermeier, M. (2009), “Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007–2008”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 23, No. 1. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  banks’ balance sheets. This affects incentives to lend because, although some tolerance by banks towards NPLs can act as a shock-absorber, when NPL ratios exceed a critical level slow and inefficient resolution becomes a major impediment to both banks and the economy at large. From the bank side, it undermines the payment culture, as it rewards strategic defaulters while discouraging performing debtors from continuing to repay their debt. The process of handling and supervising NPLs also often raises operating costs. 5 And in the wider economy, it prevents creative destruction in the form of resolving non-viable companies, as well as swift restructuring of viable but over-indebted firms. All this perpetuates the macroeconomic effects of the debt overhang and retards the economic recovery, which in turn slows down the recovery in credit demand. Critical to addressing this problem is a legal and operating environment that encourages both banks and firms to accelerate NPL resolution.
The fact that euro area is not witnessing a strong pickup in wages should not make us complacent: the risks to inflation are on the upside. The latest Eurostat data show that the bulk of inflation is due to the cost of energy (40.8%), but there are signs of it spreading to non-energy industrial goods and to services, whose prices grew by 5.5% and 4.3% respectively in the year up to September 2022. Price and financial stability are important drivers of foreign direct investments that foster international economic integration by creating long-lasting ties between countries, promoting economic development through access to foreign markets and technology dissemination. As such foreign direct investments bear particular significance in the catching up process of Emerging Market Developing Economies. The ECB Governing Council is well aware of the risks inherent in policy normalisation and for this purpose a sequencing approach has been adopted. Net asset purchases were halted first, then a series of rates hike began. At the same time, the proceeds of  3/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  matured securities are being fully reinvested. Interestrates are the marginal tool to alter the policy stance and the hiking cycle isintended to settle rates at a level consistent with inflation converging towards the target. Frontloading interest rate hikes has also been shown to lower the risk of the economy suffering a hard landing later on.

In addition, we must improve the inequality in Labuan as measured by the Gini Index. It has to improve to at least the national level. High inequality in income affects growth, productivity and opportunities for social mobility; and 2. Second, the average unemployment rate at 5.1% in the recent years continues to be above national average in Malaysia. While this might be cyclical because of the downturn in the global oil and gas industry, we need a diversification strategy so that over reliance over certain sectors is avoided. Further, the workforce participation rate, especially among women, is markedly lower than the national averag2. Both reflect a worrying trend where the labour market is not tailored to meet the needs of the local community. This state of affairs is disappointing and cannot persist. It reveals that an improvement in the current economic operating model is warranted. A new model must be designed that can benefit the local community in a more meaningful manner. Without doubt, it is our collective duty, as an industry whether as regulators or industry players, to advance the welfare of society through a more inclusive economic development. The success or failure to achieve this will reflect on us all as a collective. In this respect, Bank Negara Malaysia is proud to offer undergraduate scholarships to two deserving local students. This initiative to provide educational opportunities for deserving talents is very much needed and it exemplifies how one can contribute in a tangible manner to the local community.
Financing Asian infrastructure development The second area is in infrastructure finance. Asia’s infrastructure financing needs are vast, far beyond what government and bank financing will be able to provide. The 10. Asian Development Bank estimates that developing Asian countries will need to invest USD 1.7 trillion annually in infrastructure till 2030 to fulfil its medium- to long-term growth potential. Private 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  sector debt financing can play a significant role here. Singapore’s bond market is drawing in private capital for infrastructure projects. About 60% of ASEAN infrastructure projects have benefitted from project finance or 1 1 . advisory services of Singapore-based banks. Let me highlight three examples: a. Belt and Road Initiative bonds or BRI bonds. Chinese banks in Singapore have issued bonds to finance BRI projects. China Construction Bank Singapore branch issued RMB 1 billion (USD 145 million) of BRI bonds last year. Bank of China Singapore branch recently issued RMB 4 billion (USD 600 million) of BRI bonds in May this year. b. Asian project bonds. This year, we witnessed the successful return of project bonds into Asia’s bond market after more than a decade of absence. Indonesia’s second largest independent power producer, PT Paiton Energy, received more than USD 9 billion in orders for its USD 2 billion issue; a demonstration of increasing sophistication and growing demand of investors. Debt capital market teams in Singapore including DBS and HSBC lead arranged the deal. c. Offshore rupee denominated bonds.

Singapore’s strong ecosystem of buy-side and sell-side institutions, alongside professional services providers, makes us an excellent gateway to channel international capital to Asian borrowers. Today’s conference gives you a firsthand experience of being part of this ecosystem. 16. MAS is strengthening Singapore’s value proposition as Asia’s fixed income hub for bond issuers, and we would be glad for the opportunity to explore how we can serve your needs. 17. On this note, I wish you an enjoyable discussion ahead and many fruitful interactions. Thank you. 1 Standard & Poor’s 2 IMF WEO, April 2017, estimates for Emerging and Developing Asia (excluding Japan). 3 Advanced Economies are expected to grow at an average of 1.8% over 2017–2022. 4 The ASEAN-5 economies in the IMF’s forecast refers to Indonesian, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and the  Philippines. 5 HSBC Research, 2016. 6 SEB Research, 2017. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
Back to liquidity Given the unprecedented shocks facing the global economy it is more important than ever that there is a focus on ensuring the right frameworks and approaches are in place to bring about appropriate levels of risk management and resilience to safeguard financial stability. This is particularly true in terms of liquidity, where the experience of recent weeks reminds us of the range of vulnerabilities which exist, particularly in the NBFI sector, which is why it is an ongoing focus for the G20. Liquidity is an important and topical subject. But given our focus for today let me return to the Bank's Alternative Liquidity Facility (ALF) to illustrate my favoured approach of using the 4Cs. For many years Islamic banks have faced challenges in efficient liquidity management, unable to hold the same high-quality liquid assets as conventional banks, such as central bank reserves, sovereign debt and asset-backed securities. Further, while Basel liquidity rules gave national supervisors discretion to treat sukuk as high quality liquid assets, the amount of sukuk in issuance eligible for this treatment is modest relative to demand for it. To avoid being caught short, Islamic banks have historically needed to structure themselves in inefficient ways by, for example, holding large stocks of non-interest bearing cash, or having limited offerings of short-term deposits. The ALF – structured as a wakalah, or fund-based facility – provides a creative solution.

In some cases, we can achieve better terms by investing in new companies ahead of a planned listing. As the GPFG has grown so has Norges Bank’s experience in investment management. The investment universe has broadened. Every year new emerging economies are added to the list of countries in which we can invest. The aim is always to improve the trade-off between risk and return over time. The GPFG is subject to an extensive governance and control framework. The Ministry of Finance draws up the mandate for investment management. Norges Bank’s Executive Board has laid down, pursuant to the mandate, further detailed guidelines for the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. Pursuant to these guidelines, Norges Bank Investment management makes decisions concerning individual investments. Control and supervision of investment management follow the same lines as the delegation of investment decisions. Risk and return are routinely reported to the Executive Board and discussed at its meetings. Norges Bank reports on investment management to the GPFG’s owners on a quarterly basis. Norges Bank works to safeguard financial wealth over time. Responsible investment is a key component of that task. The Bank uses a number of instruments to promote active ownership, such as international principles and standards, expectations documents, voting at shareholder meetings and contact with companies. Corporate governance and environmental and social considerations are integrated into the investment process and risk management. In a number of cases, the Bank has sold off or refrained from buying securities as a result of concerns regarding longterm sustainability.
Otherwise, persistently high public debt/GDP ratios will leave us chronically vulnerable to the possibility of adverse macrofinancial shocks arising in the future. This programme should include a clear definition of the budgetary objectives and their timeframe, along with details of the measures needed to attain them. It should also be based on a prudent forecast of macroeconomic developments. Further, it should include an appropriate response to possible slippage, and be compatible with an improvement in the quality of public finances. In this respect, it will be a priority on the expenditure side to subject the various items to exhaustive review, with the aim of identifying the areas in which there is room to improve efficiency. It is important that the recommendations further to AIReF’s assessments be taken into account as soon as possible. We also need a comprehensive review of the tax system, in order to improve its revenueraising capacity and its efficiency. Comparison with the other European countries can guide us here. And, once again, the results of AIReF’s recently published review of tax benefits are a significant contribution in this connection. 11  Conclusions In sum, following an unprecedented recession, we face a gradual recovery in the economy, which is still incomplete and uneven, and subject to high uncertainty. Against this background, the ECB’s actions since the onset of this crisis and the recent approval of the European recovery plan are also an unprecedented common European response.

Likewise, the progressive re-opening of commercial establishments deemed non-essential since early May prompted a pick-up in retail sales that month, more markedly so in the case of products whose sales were more affected during the lockdown, such as personal equipment goods, home equipment and motor fuel. This improvement in consumer spending is expected to have run into June, according to the information available on payments made using cards. Throughout Q2, the labour market moved on a path of recovery similar to that described for economic activity. Consequently, the fall in Social Security registrations eased in May and, especially in June, following the heavy declines recorded in the second half of March and in April. In any event, registrations provide a partial picture of the scale of the labour market adjustment since the start of the crisis, insofar as the workers affected by furlough-like schemes (ERTEs) continue to be considered as registered, despite the fact they are not contributing to production. For a truer assessment of changes in the labour force since the onset of the crisis, regard is had to the series of registrations after having stripped out workers subject to ERTEs. This series, which might be dubbed “actual registrations”, is estimated to have shown a year-on-year decline of 22% at end-April, with much sharper reductions in some of the services segments most affected by the restrictions on movement 2  associated with the state of alert, such as the hospitality sector.
As I have mentioned earlier in my speech, reaching lasting stability in the global economy will take time and therefore, no notable recovery is expected in domestic economic activity in the short run. Within this framework, aggregate demand conditions are expected to continue to support disinflation for some time (Graph 26). In sum, compared to the January Inflation Report, the revised inflation forecasts are based on increased favorable contribution from aggregate demand conditions to disinflation. Graph 26: Output Gap (Percent) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10  00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Q1 Q3 Q1 Ç3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1  Source: CBRT. The problems in global economy and tighter credit conditions still persist. Following recent financial measures and policy rate cuts, domestic demand is expected to gain a relatively stable trend in the second quarter of 2009 and growth is expected to generate positive rates as of the final quarter of 2009. Meanwhile, considering the current global economic outlook, it  16  BIS Review 67/2009  is estimated that access to foreign financing facilities will remain limited for a while, economic agents will continue their cautious stance and no significant pick-up will be observed in aggregate demand in the short run.

While the said decline was mainly driven by the SCT (Special Consumption Tax) reduction on automobiles, white goods and electronic products to be effected for a limited period of three months from March onwards, automobile prices, by displaying sharp decline, were chief determinants in prices of this group. The favorable effect of these reductions started to be observed on the domestic sales of automobiles and household goods in March (Figure 6). Moreover, the temporary VAT cut on furniture and IT products for a three-month period will have a short-term restraining effect on annual inflation in durables. Nevertheless, the lagged effects of the exchange rate pass-through on the prices of durable goods are expected to be partially seen following the depletion of current inventories. Table 1. Prices of Durable Goods (Quarterly and Annual Percentage Change) 2008 I  2009 IV  Annual I  1.58 2.81 -1.80  0.61  3.19  -2.49  4.13 7.60 -1.27  -1.31  9.17  -3.17  Electric and nonelectric 1.16 0.68 0.12 appliances  6.04  8.13  Automobiles  1.04 2.44 -3.63  -2.30  -2.56  -1.36  Other  0.04 0.89 1.02  2.27  4.29  0.36  Durable Goods (excl. gold) Furniture  II  III  -4.26  Source: TURKSTAT. CBT.
SPEECH DATE:  7 December 2016 (Correction 12 Dec 2016, Figure 8 has been corrected in this version)  SPEAKER:  Deputy Governor Per Jansson  VENUE:  Swedbank, Stockholm  SVERIGES RIKSBANK SE-103 37 Stockholm (Brunkebergst org 11) Tel. +46 8 787 00 00 Fax +46 8 21 05 31 registratorn @ riks ban k.se www.riksb ank.s e  Time to scrap the inflation target? * To avoid keeping you on tenterhooks, I shall begin by answering the question in the title of my speech. No, it is not time to scrap the inflation target, in case any of you thought I wanted to. The question is of course rhetorical. The reason I ask the question is that I think it has been the focal point of the recent debate in Sweden, although it is not usually expressed so directly. Following the financial crisis the foundations of monetary policy certainly have been discussed and questioned around the world. But my feeling is that the debate has been driven further in Sweden than in most other countries. Monetary policy in Sweden has often attracted interest from other countries. One reason is that we have often been among the first to implement changes in the monetary policy framework and thus become an interesting object of study. As is well-known, Sweden was one of the very first countries to introduce inflation targeting in the early 1990s, and we have in many respects remained at the front edge since then.

These are often expressed simultaneously and are difficult to distinguish from one another, but I think there is a point in trying to keep the arguments separate. One sort of criticism is that a negative policy rate in itself is something unnatural and unhealthy. The other is that a negative policy rate is the wrong policy in the current economic situation. Let me discuss these arguments one at a time. Negative policy rate unnatural and unhealthy in itself? One can dispute whether a negative policy rate is unnatural and unhealthy, but it is certainly very unusual. This applies not only to policy rates but also to nominal interest rates in general. Prior to 2015 we had never had a negative nominal interest rate in Sweden. On the other hand, negative real interest rates, that is, nominal interest rates adjusted for inflation, have occurred now and then. The short-term real interest rate has been more or less constantly negative since 2009. If we look further back in time, negative real interest rates have not been so unusual either (see Figure 3). Of course one might think it rather unnatural to need to pay to lend money to someone, and to be paid for borrowing. But as it is usually our purchasing power that we are concerned with, it is not really clear, when one thinks about it, why it should be more unnatural to have a negative nominal interest rate than a negative real interest rate.
This ecosystem is selfreinforcing, creating a strong “clustering” effect that has been a key growth driver for Singapore’s insurance market. 25. As Singapore continues to develop itself as a global insurance market with the ability to write not just Asian risks but global risks, many insurers are also making plans to set-up their fund management arms to manage their growing investment portfolios in the region. In addition to honing investment skills, there is also a general consensus on the need to strengthen internal risk management expertise, as well as deepen data and modeling capabilities, so as to attain a strong understanding of local market risks. To better manage the risks of more complex products, as well as aggregate portfolio risks, many are also increasingly leveraging on the external expertise of the sell-side bank and capital market players, as well as fund managers in Singapore. 26. Singapore is also highly committed to research and development, and is establishing itself as an innovation centre of excellence. To respond to the challenges of an ageing Asia, it is imperative for Singapore to be at the forefront and lead the development of retirement financing solutions for individuals, businesses and governments in Asia. Research is an upstream activity preceding product development. To differentiate yourselves through innovation, we would strongly encourage the industry to continue to conduct Asian-focused retirement security research in collaboration with research institutes in Singapore, such as  9  2009 OECD and IMF estimates.

Firstly, financing Asia’s retirement funding gap. Asia is experiencing declining fertility rates, increasing life expectancy, and a rapidly aging population. Between 2011 and 2030, Asia’s share of population aged 60 and above will increase from 40% to almost 50%, compared to the global average of 20%7. At the same time, public retirement and pension systems remain inadequate, and the retirement funding gap is estimated to be up to 13 years of retirement savings8. Insurers can play a pivotal role in financing individuals’ retirement security through pension, annuity and saving products, complementing public pensions. 6  Source: Munich Re Study on Asia-Pacific Insurance Market 2020 (March 2012). 7  “Financing Social Protection in Developing Asia: Now and In the Future”, NUS, 27 May 2013. 8  2013 Manulife Investor Sentiment Survey. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  22. Insurers in Asia stand to benefit from robust premium growth on the one hand; but will also be subject to greater volatility from fluctuations in the economic and financial market cycles on the other. The low-interest rate environment is likely to magnify the present value of future increases in longevity, which will in turn, affect the solvency position of annuity providers and pension funds. While this can have unintended consequences on insurers’ role in supporting retirement adequacy, it can provide the impetus for product innovation and alignment with the new investment and regulatory climate.