samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Villy Bergström: Forecasts and business cycles Speech by Mr Villy Bergström; Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, to the Elmateriel Leverantörernas förening (Association of Swedish Electrical Installation Material), Stockholm, 15 May 2002. *  *  *  Monetary policy no exact science During the 1990s many central banks formulated explicit targets for their monetary policy. Sveriges Riksbank formulated its target in 1993 as an annual inflation rate, measured according to the consumer price index (CPI) of two per cent with a tolerated deviation interval of +/- 1 percentage points. Deviations from the target level are the rule rather than the exception. Monetary policy is not an exact science and society is not a machine; it would be neither possible nor desirable to keep inflation at a precise level, particularly not in the short term. In recent years the Swedish economy has been subjected to relatively large disturbances. On the international front, both the Asia crisis and the Russia crisis, as well as severe fluctuations on the stock markets and in oil prices, have had an effect on us. In Sweden, the rise and fall of the IT sector, as well as deregulation of the electricity and telecommunications markets with ensuing price falls, have affected both prices and production. Such crises and changes of policy can rarely be predicted. This means that the Riksbank will always make “mistakes”, with the benefit of hindsight. However, this is self-evident and not particularly valid when assessing monetary policy.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Ten years’ experience in steering interest rates – taking stock of the Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy strategy Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the University of Fribourg, Fribourg, 20 November 2009. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy strategy has proved successful over the ten years since its introduction. Throughout this period, the SNB fulfilled its mandate of ensuring price stability while taking into account economic developments. The inflation forecasts, produced quarterly on the basis of various indicators, have proved especially useful. It has always been possible to successfully manage the Libor – the operational objective of the SNB’s monetary policy – despite an international environment which, at times, has been extremely turbulent. The Libor was maintained within a range intended to provide the bestpossible conditions for a favourable development of the Swiss economy.
But finally, success will depend on the quality and passion of the people in the financial industry. Together we have to build the skills, develop the businesses, and enhance the regulatory framework to make Singapore the premier financial centre in Asia. BIS Review 61/2001  7

Their model has positive features: (slide 10) equity capital amounts to 121% of GDP in the United States, compared with only 52% in the euro area, which means that in the United States innovation finds appropriate financing more easily. But it also has limitations that we should be mindful of: excessive cost of equity can have harmful effects. To meet the financial challenge, savings have a central role to play. I will focus on two avenues for steering them into productive investment. First, savings should be reoriented towards the long-term, more easily than towards direct risk-taking. French and, more generally, European savers are more risk-averse than American ones – and this is probably not going to change. The first savings motive in the euro area is indeed insurance against unexpected events (mentioned by more than 50% of households).viii But at the same time, savers are more and more concerned by the increase in life  5 expectancies and the need to prepare for retirement: old age provision ranks as the second most important savings motive (nearly 40%).ix Therefore it makes sense to offer savers new, complementary forms of savings products, that are less liquid during the first years, but that include some form of longterm capital guarantee. These new products would provide financial intermediaries – in particular life insurers – with liabilities long enough to take pooled risks – in the form of equity investments essentially – and savers with the higher returns offered by equity over the long run.
I would like to reiterate: •  that all European banks now have unlimited access to short-term liquidity, denominated in both euro and dollars, at a fixed rate;  •  that in all countries there are guarantee mechanisms enabling banks to ensure their financing and therefore to maintain their credit activities;  •  that banking systems are all being recapitalised at equivalent or higher levels than those prevailing before the crisis;  •  and lastly, that macroeconomic policy instruments are still available and could be used if economic activity were to decline durably. Moreover, for the past two months we have witnessed a reversal of the oil and food shock which strongly penalised economic growth during the first half of the year. Prices are now falling. If this trend continues, or even if it just stabilises, we can expect a gradual but marked  4  BIS Review 130/2008  slowdown in inflation. This should spontaneously give households extra purchasing power, contributing to a possible pick up in consumption. Together, these developments could stabilise the economy and allow a recovery in economic growth during 2009. We cannot, of course, predict a precise date or forecast the extent of this recovery. However, in my opinion, the prospect of a significant recovery in economic growth in 2009 is not being sufficiently taken into account, either by analysts or markets.

introduction of the Central Banking Act to articulate the financial stability mandate; amendments to the Companies Act to codify directors’ duties).   Enhanced role by the training institute too develop talent and leaders of tomorrow (ICLIF,INCEIF, AIF).
Of course, one of the big problems facing a macroeconomic policy maker is the difficulty of setting out ex ante success criteria. We can’t perform controlled experiments on the macro economy. What matters is whether policy makes the outcome better than it would otherwise have been – but that alternative reality – the “counterfactual” in economic speak – is always a matter of conjecture and debate. Nevertheless I believe the scheme provides all the right incentives to increase the supply of credit. A second problem for macroeconomic policy is that we cannot rely on the usual “ceteris paribus” assumption of economic theory – when we make large changes in policy then everything else changes too, including the behaviour and expectations of those very people we are trying to influence. And policy effects which are relatively small can nevertheless be absolutely significant if the policy change is large enough. In fact, the FLS is designed to take advantage of the pressures to change behaviour. The FLS provides strong incentives to banks and building societies themselves – because the more they lend, the more they benefit. Either because of the price effect on those deleveraging and/or quantity effects on those expanding. And we have built in incentives that enhance competitive pressures between the lenders. They cannot afford to miss out on lending opportunities – or their competitors will take advantage. I think this will help answer the second question about whether lending will go to the people who are perceived as most need in need of it.

Turning to the future, the big question is what a world of digital currencies like stablecoins and CBDCs would mean for the implementation of monetary policy. How will central banks anticipate and adapt to the changing landscape brought on by the possibility of digital currencies? There is much more to discuss about these important considerations in a fast-changing world. As central bankers, it's critical that we remain focused on carrying out our responsibilities, while keeping pace with the world around us. And that's what brings us here today. This workshop is an important part of learning and understanding the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead so that we can be prepared for and successful in the future. Thank you all for participating in what will surely be thought-provoking and constructive discussions. 1  President's Working Group on Financial Markets, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Report on Stablecoins, November 2021. 2  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement Facility, January 3, 2018.
As you know, the Governing Board adopted the expert group's conclusions and indicated to the Federal Council that, based on the profit figure following revaluation, an amount corresponding to half the gold holdings could be earmarked for purposes other than monetary policy. The possible uses for the sales proceeds have been the subject of much political debate. None of the proposed solutions have succeeded in attracting a consensus among the population or in the Federal Parliament. On 16 December, the parliamentary debate was concluded without an agreement being reached. Thus, a sum of CHF 21.1 billion, corresponding to the proceeds of the gold sales, has been included in the usual profit distribution procedure. Some people fear that, following this transfer, the National Bank will no longer have sufficient currency reserves. I have a word of reassurance for them. This issue has been examined in depth and has been discussed by our Bank Council. Our currency reserves total CHF 60 billion – an amount which may be considered appropriate by comparison with other industrialised countries. BIS Review 30/2005  3  But nor are these reserves excessive. Furthermore, it is important that the currency reserves evolve over time, in tandem with the size of our economy. This is why, in accordance with Article 99 of the Constitution and Article 30 of the National Bank Act, the SNB has adopted a provisioning policy that provides for gradual growth in its currency reserves.

In my view no single area should be put aside from this review which should concentrate on the ways and means to foster financial stability, prevent propagation of disturbances and contagion, improve risk management at all levels, and diminish procyclicality, in particular, in the domains of accounting rules and accounting practices of rating agencies, of supervisory banking rules – the first duty being to implement globally Basel II which is largely superior to Basel I – including harmonisation of liquidity rules and requirements, of supervisory insurance rules, of market supervisory authorities regulations, of regulated and non regulated private institutions (whether highly leveraged institutions or so-called S.I.V. and conduits), and of market practices. This does not mean necessarily dramatic changes of rules and overloading of new regulations. I am of the firm opinion that voluntary code of best practices, the set up of voluntary “Principles” and the working out of voluntary benchmark best practices are most of the time preferable to the addition of new layers of rules and regulations. But we have, in any case, the duty to be effective in working out the lessons of the present market correction. This is no time for complacency in any respect. Thank you very much for your attention. BIS Review 137/2007  3
This evening, One Raffles Place continues this evolution with the addition of a second tower. How interesting too, that the new tower is designed by Mr Paul Noritaka Tange, son of the architect for the original Tower One. I am told that One Raffles Place Tower Two has two distinctive features which differentiate it from its predecessor. First, One Raffles Place Tower Two is a certified BCA Green Mark Platinum Development. Some of the building’s environmentally-friendly features include solar cells and tools to harvest rainwater. With these sustainable features, the new tower will achieve an overall energy savings of 32% each year. I applaud OUB Centre on this effort. Second, One Raffles Place Tower Two will not only provide an additional 360,000 square feet of grade A premium office space but has floor plates which are column-free. They grant offices the flexibility to apportion their office space efficiently. Singapore – charting history as a global financial centre While the outlook for US and European economies continues to be uncertain, Asia continues to offer growth opportunities. Asian banks, which are moderately leveraged, largely deposit-funded and generally conservative in lending, have in recent times, stepped-up their financing activities. As traditional European lenders continue to deleverage, there are opportunities in corporate funding, trade finance and infrastructure finance which Asian banks are well placed to take hold of. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Asia has also seen rising affluence amongst its population and increased interest from international investors as an investment destination.

This has presented greater investor demand, paving the way for the growth of Asia’s capital markets and asset management sectors. These developments will help drive a new chapter in Asian finance. We will continue to ensure that we have adequate supply of premium infrastructure to support the sustained growth of the business financial centre here. Our office rental rates in Singapore remain competitive. Based on CBRE’s Q1 2012 Singapore Market View, the average monthly rental for Grade A office space dipped by 4.7% quarter-on-quarter to $ per square feet (compared to the 3.6 % fall in Q1 2012). (This is well priced compared to premium office space in Hong Kong and Tokyo, at about 50% and 70% of their costs, respectively. Occupancy rates for Core CBD in Singapore remain healthy at about 92% (in Q2 2012). The increase in premium office space at competitive rental rates bodes well for Singapore, and will strengthen our role as a competitive business hub in Asia and globally. Conclusion I congratulate all those who have played a role in making this new development possible. I am optimistic that the two towers of One Raffles Place will remain as one of the most recognised business addresses in the historic Raffles Place and will continue to contribute to Singapore’s success story. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Although I hope that the analysis will eventually develop to the extent that it is possible in a reasonably reliable way to take account of this type of risk in our forecasts we are not there yet. My view is that it may sometimes be justified to consider this kind of unforecastable risk  8  According to the theory of uncovered interest rate parity, the market expects the krona to weaken against the euro in the period ahead if Swedish interest rates are higher than those in the euro area. Uncovered interest rate parity also explains why the krona strengthened at the same time (and not afterwards) as Swedish interest rates increased relative to those in the euro area in 2010. However, the empirical support for uncovered interest rate parity is weak and there are many examples of deviations from the theory. For example, the krona strengthened more against the euro in 2010 than implied by uncovered interest rate parity. I refer to my speech “Many dimensions to well-balanced monetary policy”, dated 26 January 2011, for a more detailed discussion of the development of interest rates and the krona exchange rate in 2010. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  in our monetary policy decision-making. Ignoring such risks completely is, in my view, the same as saying that they do not exist, and that is a position that I would not want to defend.

This proved not to be the case and these days we present the entire cohesive forecast for the inflation target, wages, GDP and its components, the repo rate and so on. I believe that by doing this we have increased the public’s understanding of monetary policy and reduced the drama surrounding the entire monetary policy process. Assessing economic activity entails reviewing material that is in a constant state of flux, and when we change our monetary policy these changes can be concretely related to changes in real-economic conditions. I would also like to add that the quantified forecasts are of course interesting, but the associated analyses of the driving forces behind different courses of development are at least as interesting. How do we make our forecasts? Developments abroad play an important role For a small open economy like the Swedish economy, the international outlook is the point of departure for the forecast. We cannot influence events abroad, but what happens there has a major impact on developments here at home. Here I would like to highlight some of the special aspects relating to the forecast of developments abroad. 1  Apart from the fact that it is considered desirable to stabilise resource utilisation, resource utilisation is also an important inflation indicator. Resource utilisation is thus an important factor that plays several roles in the monetary policy analysis and there is an almost constant discussion of what measures of resource utilisation are the most relevant.
If, on a firm-by-firm basis, workers and managers decide to adjust their conditions to the changes in demand, the highest possible number of firms and jobs can be preserved. Furthermore, by improving productivity in those firms which will perceive the favourable change in the economic environment, the labour reform would enable workers’ wages to be improved and thus increase domestic demand without impairing the competitiveness of the economy. The list of necessary reforms in Spanish labour institutions is very long. But two of them are vital in order to judge the extent of the reform finally undertaken. The one to which most media attention is devoted is the issue of a permanent employment contract that does not deter those businesses which wish to create jobs. Although hiring is important, at this point in time I feel that it is particularly urgent to address the change which has to be made in collective bargaining. At this juncture it is of paramount importance that the trade unions and employers’ associations – which in complicated situations in the past have made telling contributions to the Spanish economy – should now let the workers and entrepreneurs of Spanish firms decide how they can best save their businesses, preserve their jobs and even expand their workforce. Quite another thing is that they may give guidelines or advice to firms in the negotiation of wages and other working conditions.

But what does strike you is a broader point: that it is normal to have simpler requirements for the smallest banks. And as our early research indicates, the most sophisticated capital and liquidity requirements may not be as important, relative to sound governance, for small firms as they are for large ones. KISS  I am conscious that we are all at the moment very much focused on the Covid crisis. This is a hard time for the economy and for many of the firms that we oversee. There are also, as ever, many issues du jour for us to debate – dividends, the MREL Review and resolution topics, buffer usability, and mortgage risk-weight floors to name just a few. There is the small matter of coming to the end of the Brexit transition period and finalising our new relations with our neighbours. And further afield we face a world of heightened geopolitical and trade tensions. So this is not an easy time. But while doing everything we can to manage the risks we face, we also need to keep an eye to the future and to opportunities. With that in mind I hope that the short sketch I have provided today will trigger a debate about the merits or otherwise of introducing a simpler regime for small UK banks and building societies. If it does, we will progress to a discussion paper in the Spring and take it from there. In the meantime, a surprising new acronym has entered the PRA lexicon: KISS.
With a flexible exchange rate, a depreciation of the krone can also boost competitiveness. A flexible exchange rate can reduce fluctuations in employment and output. Empirical studies4 have also suggested that economic growth in industrialised countries with floating exchange rates has been as strong, and often stronger than in countries with a stable exchange rate. A precondition is that there is an economic policy framework so that inflation does not spin out of control. The real exchange rate The chart shows developments in two measures of the real krone exchange rate, i.e. consumer prices and relative labour costs in Norway relative to trading partners, measured in a common currency. The real exchange rate measured by relative wage costs in a common currency is an expression of the cost competitiveness of Norwegian companies. The real krone exchange rate as measured in terms of developments in relative prices is an expression of the Norwegian krone’s purchasing power. When the curves in the chart are above zero, the exchange rate is stronger and competitiveness weaker than the average level since 1970. The real exchange rate has fluctuated considerably over time and has deviated substantially from the average level over longer periods. Nevertheless, there has been a tendency for the real exchange rate to revert to this level. The points on the chart marked 2004 show the real exchange rate with wage and inflation projections for 2004 from Inflation Report 1/04. 1 2004.

In my view, however, the technical innovations are not the only explanation. The deregulations that began in the 1980s, as well as the consolidation of the federal budget during the 1990s, should also be mentioned as major factors. The deregulations have helped to strengthen America’s corporate sector and the improvement in the federal finances led to increased confidence among households and firms as well as somewhat lower long bond rates. Low interest rates and higher productivity growth then paved the way for the massive wave of investment. The U.S. economy’s growth rate shot up and unemployment dropped to levels that hardly anyone believed could be combined with low, stable inflation. As outcomes proved earlier forecasts wrong, assessments of how strong demand’s long-term growth could be without generating rising inflation were adjusted gradually upwards. Turning then to share prices in the United States, in the first place the Nasdaq exchange with its predominance of high-tech companies, we can see that expectations of corporate profits rose rapidly  BIS Review 20/2001  1  to levels that had not been seen since the 1930s. The trend peaked last year with share prices at record levels and a GDP growth rate above five per cent, in some quarters even higher. The reverse side of the medal lies in the imbalances that have built up during this period. The United States has been living on borrowed money; even though the federal budget was first consolidated and then generated a growing surplus, investment exceeded aggregate saving.