samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In contrast, between 1999 and 2008, the real effective exchange rate generally remained below its long-term average. It had started to increase around August 2007, then gaining over 30% between that time and the end of June 2011. With these numbers in mind, the additional changes registered this summer are quite extraordinary. Between early July and 9 August, when the Swiss franc reached its historic peak, its real value climbed another 17%. Estimates show that the currency was then almost 40% above its long-term average and more than 50% above its pre-crisis level.15 It can be argued that the Swiss franc is strong because the Swiss economy is faring well in absolute terms and, most importantly, in comparison with many of the country’s neighbours. Indeed, the Great Recession was less pronounced in Switzerland than in most other developed economies. The ensuing recovery was also relatively dynamic. The Swiss economy was one of the first advanced economies to return to the pre-crisis level of GDP and, in striking contrast with many other countries, Switzerland emerged from the crisis with solid public finances. Indeed, this explains why, in the crisis years, the country’s overall debtto-GDP level fell below 40%. Exchange rate movements, like those observed this summer, strongly suggest, however, that such explanations do not suffice. Slow-moving economic fundamentals or macroeconomic drivers can almost certainly not account for the sudden large movements of our exchange rate in July and August.

Lars Nyberg: Sweden and the world economy Speech by Mr Lars Nyberg, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Danske Securities, Stockholm, 24 September 2001. *  *  *  Exactly two weeks ago I landed courtesy of SAS at Newark airport, after circling around Manhattan. As always, I was fascinated by the skyline dominated by the twin towers of the World Trade Center. Less than 24 hours later, those towers were gone and thousands of people had lost their lives in an act of terrorism that shook the entire world. It is tragic, terrifying and in many respects still incomprehensible. You all work in the financial sector and I am sure many of you have business contacts or friends who have been affected, directly or indirectly. I myself will never forget the pictures of human despair reflected in the US media during the week I had to wait for a flight back to Sweden. Naturally, the events in New York and Washington will have both political and economic consequences. At the moment, everything appears to be very uncertain, for understandable reasons. However, it is necessary to take developments in the US economy as a starting point for any assessment of how the Swedish economy will develop over the next few years. This applied before the attack against the USA and it applies even more now.
These differences seem to last over long periods, indicating that the problems are partly due to low mobility in the labour market. In addition, the need for labour market mobility is growing as a result of structural change. The previously typical cyclical pattern, where jobs are shed during a slump and then are recreated when the economy turns around, no longer generally holds true in all industries. Jobs that are lost in a slowdown are being replaced, especially in manufacturing, by increased productivity and information technology. Growth is leading to new jobs but in different places than before. That means that more people have to change workplace or sector, and results in the need for considerable adaptability. More jobs have to be created in, for example, the services sector, perhaps in completely new companies. The structural change that occurred when farmers and forestry workers went into manufacturing was relatively easy. Now the change often entails manufacturing workers having to go into the services sector, a transition that may be more difficult. To the extent that the weak growth in employment is due to structural change in the Swedish economy, from manufacturing jobs to services, there is reason to discuss how the functioning of the labour market can be improved and how the driving forces for new business creation can be strengthened.

Since all other demand components were falling, the manufacturing sector was able to attract resources and expand. We have not had a current account deficit since 1993. Why 2 per cent inflation and a floating exchange rate? That two per cent is the optimal inflation target has no scientific basis. However, this level gives a reasonable trade-off between the negative consequences of high inflation and the problems entailed by deflation. Furthermore, two per cent is a common target internationally. It is necessary, you see, to have a certain margin from zero inflation if price and wage formation are to work well. Separate prices and wages have to be able to grow at different rates if it is to be possible to allocate resources such as labour to their correct use. Since it is difficult to cut nominal wages, some inflation creates the possibility for relative changes in wages without having to reduce the nominal level for any group. The scope for wage increases given the inflation target is around 4 per cent. (2 per cent + 2 per cent: Inflation plus productivity growth, at a given profit share. )1 This holds if we, like the National Institute of Economic Research, assume that average productivity growth is around 2 per cent for the whole economy in the long term. If one occupational group gets 5 per cent in order to attract labour, another group has to get less than the average increase.
Thomas Jordan: Switzerland at the heart of Europe – between independence and interdependence Speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, 17 January 2015. *  *  *  The speaker would like to thank Nicolas Stoffels and Attilio Zanetti for their valuable support in preparing this speech. He is also grateful to Rita Kobel and Alexander Perruchoud. Ladies and Gentlemen, I am very honoured to be with you today in Brussels, and I would like to thank the Swiss Mission to the European Union and the Institute of European Studies at the Université libre de Bruxelles for their kind invitation. When I arrived at Brussels airport, I couldn’t help noticing the range of delicious chocolate on offer. It seems to be as abundant as in Switzerland. So I can see immediately that Switzerland and Belgium have important things in common. This certainly makes me feel very comfortable here. Although I am unlikely to end up emulating Jean Neuhaus. As some of you may know, Belgium’s most famous chocolatier was actually a native of Switzerland. He came to Belgium in 1857, and decided to stay and set up shop in Brussels. As for me, I plan to return to Switzerland. 1. Introduction  Belgium and Switzerland have a lot of other things in common besides chocolate: Both are small, very open economies, which have successfully embarked on the road to globalisation.

Constantinos Herodotou: Sustainability, digitization, profitability Statement of Mr Constantinos Herodotou, Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, at fireplace chat "Challenges for banks in a new operating environment" at the 10th Banking Forum, Nicosia, 9 December 2022. *** I would first like to thank Andrea for accepting my invitation to participate at today's event and share his valuable insights with us. In the aftermath of the two consecutive crises, the first round adverse effects have been limited for the banking sector. Nevertheless, with the level of uncertainty still tilted to the upside, the full extent of the consequences has not yet materialised especially in the area of credit risk. If we were though to draw a lesson from both crises, this would be the significance that technology plays for the banking sector, not only for the conduct of the normal banking operations but also for the sustainability of its profitability. The banking sector has proven resilient and continued to provide credit to the economy. However, the legacy structural weaknesses of the sector remain. At the same time, competition from challenger banks has been increasing. Therefore, the banks need to move more decisively in the road to digital transformation. This is presumably the only way if they are to address their structural weaknesses while retaining their competitive advantage against new players in the market. Investing in technology can become the catalyst in their effort to strengthen efficiency and build sustainable profitability.
Sea change Speech given by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England  Local Government Association Annual Conference and Exhibition 2019, Bournemouth 2 July 2019  I am grateful to Clare Macallan and James Benford for their assistance in preparing these remarks, and to Charles Gundy, Emil Iordanov, David Glanville, George Rodger, Alison Schomberg, Anina Thiel, Mo Wazzi and Gabija Zemaityte for background research. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  It is a pleasure to join this Local Government Association (LGA) conference. The LGA supports councils across the country as they deliver local solutions to national problems, helping them to build the skills they need and ensuring the voice of local government is heard at the national level. My only regret is not being able to enjoy the beaches for which Bournemouth is rightly famous. The closest I will get is using a nautical analogy – a sea change. A sea change is a profound transformation. The term was originally coined by Shakespeare in The Tempest, of which there are five productions across Dorset this summer.1 These productions will mix tragedy and comedy in a play whose themes range from magic and creation to betrayal and revenge. My focus is more limited and prosaic – but also more immediately relevant to your work. In recent months, there has been a sea change in financial markets driven by growing concerns over the global economic outlook.

In some cases, we can achieve better terms by investing in new companies ahead of a planned listing. As the GPFG has grown so has Norges Bank’s experience in investment management. The investment universe has broadened. Every year new emerging economies are added to the list of countries in which we can invest. The aim is always to improve the trade-off between risk and return over time. The GPFG is subject to an extensive governance and control framework. The Ministry of Finance draws up the mandate for investment management. Norges Bank’s Executive Board has laid down, pursuant to the mandate, further detailed guidelines for the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. Pursuant to these guidelines, Norges Bank Investment management makes decisions concerning individual investments. Control and supervision of investment management follow the same lines as the delegation of investment decisions. Risk and return are routinely reported to the Executive Board and discussed at its meetings. Norges Bank reports on investment management to the GPFG’s owners on a quarterly basis. Norges Bank works to safeguard financial wealth over time. Responsible investment is a key component of that task. The Bank uses a number of instruments to promote active ownership, such as international principles and standards, expectations documents, voting at shareholder meetings and contact with companies. Corporate governance and environmental and social considerations are integrated into the investment process and risk management. In a number of cases, the Bank has sold off or refrained from buying securities as a result of concerns regarding longterm sustainability.
BIS Review 103/2009  9  Figure 15: Yield Curves* (Percent)  16  Yield  14  12  1 Apr 2009 16 July 2009  10  8 0.5  1  1.5  2 2.5 Term (Year)  3  3.5  4  * Estimated by using the compound returns on the bonds in the ISE Bonds and Bills Market, based on the Extended Nelson-Siegel (ENS) method. Source: CBRT. 3. Inflation and monetary policy outlook  Distinguished Guests, Having summarized inflation and monetary policy developments in the second quarter of 2009, in this part of my speech, I would like to share with you the evaluation of the inflation outlook and monetary policy of the Central Bank of Turkey in the upcoming period. In addition, I will also outline the Central Bank’s inflation forecasts presented in the Inflation Report, which is to be posted on our website shortly. Firstly, I will briefly touch on the economic framework underlying these forecasts. In spite of widespread views that the recovery in the global economy will be slow and gradual, perceptions that the worst of the crisis is over led to optimism in global financial markets in the second quarter of the year and an increase in risk appetite. Parallel to the recovery in global risk perceptions, the risk premia of emerging markets fell rapidly and reached almost pre-crisis levels (Figure 16). As was the case throughout the crisis, the risk premium of Turkey followed a relatively lower path compared to other emerging markets.

Rather, it affects the exposure to loss of the DGS and thus the share of the losses having to be covered by the surviving parts of the industry.11 Amongst uninsured creditors, the position of bond holders will depend on whether they are issued from a (pure) holding company, in which case they have a structurally subordinated claim on the underlying business assets, or by operating companies that also have lots of other unsecured creditors. The exposure to loss of bonds issued by operating companies are, therefore, affected by whether or not they incorporate subordination clauses. For every bank group, all of that will be clear. The big issue, therefore, is about uninsured deposits. Should they rank alongside senior unsecured bonds or should they be preferred? In the US, all deposits are preferred. There is now an active debate in the EU about whether or not it should introduce depositor preference and, if so, whether that should be for all or only some uninsured deposits? Whatever the conclusion reached by the political authorities, it is important that the creditor hierarchy is the same under bailin, other resolution tools, and liquidation. Otherwise, pricing each piece of debt would depend upon time-varying assessments of the probabilities of the various resolution tools being applied in the event of a firm’s bankruptcy. On the substance of the issue, I can see a case for both insured and some uninsured depositors being preferred.
In short, co-operation in supervisory matters in the EU has to observe the principles of pragmatism and flexibility. Pragmatism involves acknowledging the role that the competent national authorities must play in supervising a single market with very different levels of integration in the various areas of business and, furthermore, it advocates an increasingly important role for the authority in the home country of pan-European institutions. Flexibility is needed to adapt the levels of co-operation to the pace set by developments in the integration of the various segments of the single market. Finally, regarding the changes currently under way, a major source of such change is the intense regulatory process to which the banking sector is lately being subjected. The adaptation to the new accounting standards issued by the IASB, which in Spain are set out in the new accounting Circular, and the preparations for implementing the new capital accord are the two landmark projects which are undoubtedly calling for a major effort by European institutions. This effort is absorbing extensive resources and deserves our full support. In this respect, I consider that, after a process of intense regulatory change, we should focus on achieving proper implementation and allow ourselves to  12  BIS Review 45/2005  slacken the pace of regulatory developments in these areas. This will enable the far-reaching changes made recently to be digested and will ensure that the new standards are properly implemented.

[11]  The upshot is that more firms have been protected and more jobs have been saved. Without the ECB’s policies, we estimate that over one million more people would have lost their jobs. [12]  But we are not out of the woods yet. With the tremendous progress made on vaccine technology, we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel. But we still cannot see exactly how long that tunnel is. We will continue to face a period of high uncertainty until more people have been vaccinated against the virus. In this setting, it is crucial that the bridge for SMEs remains in place for as long as needed. The ECB will help ensure that firms and families can access the finance they need to weather this storm – and that they can do so in the confidence that financing conditions will not tighten prematurely. That commitment is the best way to provide certainty to all sectors of the economy and to bring stability back to the euro area swiftly. And this, in turn, is the best contribution we can make to delivering on our mandate of price stability. 5/8  As Goethe said, “Im Idealen kommt alles auf die élans, im Realen auf die Beharrlichkeit an.”[13] Reality is currently hard for many firms and the future remains uncertain. And so we will persist and persevere until the pandemic emergency has passed.
Moreover, while there is no long-run trade-off between unemployment, or output, and inflation, both formal evidence and common sense observation on wage and price rigidities attest to the existence of such a trade-off in the short run. In the long run, however, monetary policy’s impact is only on inflation; potential output primarily is determined by advances in technology, growth in human and physical capital and other real resources. Because of the uncertainty about the timing and significance of short-term monetary policy effects on economic activity, as well as all other uncertainties concerning the economy, there are always differences of view about the speed with which policy should be adjusted, and on the balance of risks in dealing with ongoing economic developments. These conflicts become more marked when an economy confronts supply shocks that drive up prices BIS Review 17/1997  -3-  sharply and suddenly -- such as the two oil shocks of the 1970s. In those circumstances, from my perspective, the appropriate course, consistent with maintaining longer term price stability, should be to bring inflation down somewhat gradually, as the economy adjusts to the shift in relative prices. As I see it, monetary policy must be formulated cautiously, and cannot ignore business cycle developments. In establishing price stability as the primary goal of monetary policy, therefore, it is best to recognize that monetary policy does affect output in the short run.

On the contrary, what is important to bear in mind is that by ensuring a stable price and financial environment, the central bank helps foster economic growth. I believe that no central bank can maintain price stability over the longer term without public support for the necessary policies. Only with the confidence of the public in their policies and their own lasting dedication to non-inflationary growth together with a well-functioning financial system can central banks succeed in achieving and maintaining price and financial stability. BIS Review 17/1997
I would also like to welcome Mr. Emil Stavrev, Deputy Division Chief, and Mr. Mariusz Jarmuzek, Senior Economist, both of them from the IMF European Department, who have contributed extensively to the report under debate today. Now, returning to the main topic: The National Bank of Romania has always valued the Regional Economic Outlook Report as it gave us a full and unbiased image of where we stand as compared to our peer countries. It has helped us to better understand the macroeconomic developments in our region and the interconnectedness/connections between our economies. The current report marks a turning point in our post-crisis economic history: We should take advantage of the improved economic context to focus on structural reforms needed to accelerate the real convergence and to raise Romania’s economic capacity in the long run. We need to preserve competitiveness and enhance the quality of public expenditure. We are all glad to see the global economy back on track and the European recovery strengthening. These results are even more encouraging, if we think back to 2010, in the aftermath of the crisis, when economists and policymakers started to really doubt our economies ever returning to business as usual. At that time it was believed that the new normal would come with secular stagnation, low interest rates and low inflation. Romania has secured a record growth of 8.6% in 2017/Q3. Nevertheless, we need to moderate our enthusiasm.

Mugur Isărescu: Regional economic outlook - Europe Opening speech by Mr Mugur Isărescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the conference "Regional Economic Outlook - Europe", Bucharest, 17 November 2017. * * * Your Excellences, Ambassadors, Members of the diplomatic corps, Ladies and gentlemen, Distinguished guests, It is my pleasure to welcome you to the National Bank of Romania. The Board and I are honored to host the presentation of an important IMF document, one of their flagship reports, namely “2017 Regional Economic Outlook Report”. It is a tradition for the National Bank of Romania to host this event and we are pleased to greet the presence of many foreign diplomats – this is a clear testimony of its importance. Allow me to extend a warm welcome to Mr. Jeffrey Franks, who has been a long-standing friend of Romania. Mr. Franks is a veteran of the Fund, who – over the last 25 years – has managed challenging assignments, including the resident offices in Ukraine and Ecuador, and has led teams in Pakistan, Romania, France, Belgium, and Paraguay. He was the IMF Mission Chief for Romania for almost 3 years, from 2009 till 2012. As many of you may remember, during his mandate as mission chief, Romania overcame a very difficult period, with the support of the IMF, WB and EC.
As part of the efforts to improve the standard of pen-testing in Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia facilitated the formation of a task force last October, to set up a Malaysia chapter of the UK-based Council of Registered Ethical Security Testers or CREST, which will serve as a certification body for ethical hackers. We believe that this is a good platform to grow domestic talent in this area and promote international best practices in penetration testing. c. The Bank has also launched the Operational Risk Integrated Online Network or commonly known in the industry as the ORION system, to enhance the standard of operational risk 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  management in the financial sector. ORION is a risk surveillance system that consolidates information on operational risk incidences, including cyber-attacks. The system will strengthen the Bank’s ability to perform system-wide monitoring and early detection of developing trends in cyber-attacks and frauds within the financial sector. Moving forward, Bank Negara Malaysia is looking to address identified gaps in technology risk management practices within the financial sector. As part of this effort, the Bank is in the midst of conducting a comprehensive review of existing technology risk guidelines, including enhancing the expectations for the board and senior management to play a more active role in managing technology risk, and enhancing the resilience of IT infrastructures such as data centres. In today’s world where there is increasing uncertainty of what the future may hold, it is no longer possible for risk managers to rely solely on historical trends.

There were few plans for large-scale investment, and they mainly concerned the renewal of modernization of existing equipment. Retail sales contracted in February, after posting a substantial rise in January. Employment levels remained stable in industry, except in the automobile sector, where they declined. The retail and market services sectors showed little change, but employment fell in the building industry. Increasing use was made of flexi-time, annualized working time and part-time working to respond to variations in demand. BIS Review 32/1997