samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Naturally, macroeconomic stability was and still is a necessary condition for the framework to operate properly. The crisis has led to a reexamination of some issues we thought were settled and to the emergence of some new questions. Even though Brazil was not at the epicenter of the crisis, we were affected by the crisis itself and by the policies that were put in place in its wake. Furthermore, we have been actively participating in the international central banking debate in order to offer our views and to learn from the experience of others. *  *  *  In my opening remarks, I will focus on three topics that have provoked particularly intense debate and that I believe will shape central banking for some time to come. In each of these topics, the global financial crisis prompted a rethinking that is still underway, although some initial conclusions can already be drawn. First, maintaining financial stability was reemphasized as a core function of central banks. Central banks have always been concerned with financial stability, particularly through their lender-of-last-resort role. But in many jurisdictions, central banks progressively downgraded the importance of the financial stability goal in the post-war period. The supervision of banks was progressively split off from central banking, and a gap emerged in that, in some jurisdictions, nobody was tasked with looking at the vulnerabilities in the system as a whole.

François Villeroy de Galhau: Present challenges for France’s central bank Hearing of Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, by the Senate Finance Committee, Paris, 30 March 2016. *  *  *  Madam President, General Rapporteur, Senators, Thank you for receiving me this morning, just a few months after your vote of confidence. I attach great importance to these regular exchanges in order to inform you of matters essential to the Banque de France. In 2016, the world in general, and Europe in particular, are experiencing a period of uncertainty: uncertainties relating to our security, with the threat of terrorist attacks still real; political uncertainties, with the risk of “Brexit” and the refugee crisis; as well as economic uncertainties, with lower economic growth in emerging economies, including China, and excess market volatility in January and February. Faced with this turmoil, the Eurosystem, of which the Banque de France is a member, is acting decisively. Its monetary policy is supporting the economy and creating a favourable environment for taking all the other actions necessary to return to strong, sustainable and job-creating growth: France, and Europe, must seize this opportunity to regain confidence. 1. Monetary policy, first of all, is doing its fair share of the work. The Eurosystem is determined to fight the low inflation that we are facing today and thus underpin economic activity. This is our mandate and we are striving vigorously to achieve it.
The banks managed to solve this problem for card payments, but just consider how long it took to achieve the volumes that we see today. Consider also the fact that the banks did not manage to solve this problem for an e-money product called Cash Card that was finally phased out a number of years ago. A natural consequence of network effects is that those who are already connected to a welldeveloped network, for example for card payments, will think carefully about whether it is worth connecting to a new network that is currently much smaller but might in the future be as large or larger than the existing network. There is a risk of not being able to reach as many payers and payees in the new network. It may thus be better for consumers or merchants to wait and perhaps join the network later when a critical mass of users has been achieved. Launching a service that is not based on an established network is therefore much more difficult and more costly than adding new services to an established network. Third, it is easier and less costly for established payment mediators to launch new products as they have the advantage of having already attracted a circle of customers that buy their services. These customers can easily be reached through the relationship that is already in place. The customers also already have an account with the mediator, usually a bank, which can be used as the basis for new payment services.

Cards and cash in Sweden Cards compete with cash when we pay directly at the point of sale, for example in supermarkets, petrol stations, restaurants or at cinemas. It is the customers who choose how they want to pay, and as we no longer use cheques in Sweden the choice is between cards and cash. A high level of card usage thus tends to go hand in hand with a low level of cash usage, and vice versa. In Sweden, the use of cards has increased rapidly in recent years. In 2009, the average Swede made 182 card payments but less than 30 cash withdrawals. This means that the value of the payments made by card has increased fivefold, and that the number of card payments has increased more than sevenfold, over the last 10 years. Unfortunately, there are no corresponding statistics for cash payments, but if we assume that the cash withdrawn  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  from ATMs is used to make purchases then the value of all the card payments is three times higher than the value of all the over-the-counter cash payments. Another way of measuring cash usage is to compare the value of the banknotes and coins in circulation, which is usually referred to as MO, with GDP. If we do this we can see that between 2001 and 2010, MO fell from 3.8 per cent to 2.9 per cent of GDP.
It is important that we divide the tasks related to non-performing loans into two – reducing the current level of nonperforming loans, and preventing new loans of this kind. As for the preparations for the entry into force of the new International Financial Reporting Standard No. 9, we have just aggregated the data received from you. I think, as a whole, the sector is ready for its implementation, but more work is to be done, especially in some banks. What I am trying to say is that this is not a one-off act; it is rather a process we are going to work on. And now a few words about the Law on Payment Services and Payment Systems, which will come into effect from the beginning of 2018. It sets higher standards and requirements for banks concerning the security of payment operations, including those made via Internet or through other IT devices. We expect that the new law would reduce the number of disputes between providers and users of payment services, as well as the number of cases where the BNB should get involved directly. Please allow me to thank you and to once again congratulate you on this year’s very good results. I wish you joyful celebrations, a happy Banker’s Day, and very happy Christmas and New Year, as well as good health and success in the New Year! Thank you for your attention. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches

He belonged to the old guard of economists who believed that economic prosperity cannot be attained by printing money. This was indeed going against the popular tides of the late 1930s and 1940s. At that time, Keynesianism had been accepted by the mainstream economists on both sides of the Atlantic as a new religion. It explicitly advocated the desirability of deficit financing as a strategy for attaining full employment. Exter doubted the validity of this claim both in his public speeches and writings. At one stage, even Paul Samuelson had teased him that ‘though Exter may be right, he was lonely in his opinion’. The fact that there were no supporters for his view did not prevent Exter from making public what he believed to be true. On the very first day of the establishment of the Central Bank of Ceylon, in a press interview he gave as the first Governor of the Bank, he warned against the use of the Bank for things which it cannot fulfill. “Today, we can only be filled with high hopes for the future. It would be a mistake to expect startling results immediately from the establishment of the Central Bank. There is no financial wizardry by which the Bank can suddenly pull out of a hat a higher standard of living for everybody. The Bank’s contribution must necessarily be a long-run contribution. The Bank does not itself produce goods and services, but it should, by creating the right monetary conditions enable the country…” to do so.
Credit institutions are now proceeding more cautiously in their lending to this sector and interest rate terms are changing. Oil prices seem to be stabilising, and in spite of mounting labour market pressures, wage drift has been contained. The Central Bank’s policy rate hike is beginning to spread through the economy; monetary policy is transmitted with an inherent lag in all cases, and this has even been exaggerated by Iceland’s unique economic conditions at present. The most important change in the wake of the September policy hike, however, was that indexed bond yields began to rise at last. It was vital for monetary policy to begin to have an effect in the parts of the economy which showed the clearest signs of overheating, i.e. soaring private consumption growth. Although all these points represent an interesting and positive development, on their own they do not justify changing the policy that the Central Bank has been pursuing. Substantial pressures still exist in the economy, demand is buoyant and there are undeniably sizeable imbalances. These factors must be seen in context. While recent information on the short-term outlook should obviously be observed, it is even more vital to look at indicators for longer-term developments. In effect the Central Bank has no other option – like God’s mills, the Bank’s instruments grind slowly, but grind exceedingly well, if patience and foresightedness guide the way. The Central Bank has made no secret that the current strength of the króna is not sustainable in the long run.

Davíð Oddsson: The Central Bank of Iceland’s commitment to price stability Speech by Mr Davíð Oddsson, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Central Bank of Iceland, at a seminar organised by the Iceland Chamber of Commerce, Reykjavik, 5 December 2005. *  *  *  On December 2, 2005 the Central Bank of Iceland raised its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points before last weekend. I do not expect that decision came as a surprise. Some people may well have read into what the Bank wrote in connection with the policy rate hike in September that the increase this time would be greater, by 0.50 or even 0.75 percentage points. No such decisions were embodied in those writings, although the Bank made a clear commitment that it takes its mandatory role seriously and would not flinch at following it with full force. Those declarations stand firm. Monetary Bulletin, which was published on the Central Bank’s website last Friday, includes a detailed account of the Bank’s assessment of economic and monetary developments and prospects, and the arguments underpinning its decision to raise the policy interest rate now. The scenario that we faced on September 27 has changed in several ways. Uncertainty about wage settlements has been dispelled, although admittedly at considerable cost. The consumer price index fell somewhat at the last measurement. House price inflation has slowed down and there are signs that a turning point has been reached.
If we are to perform, we need to build in ourselves, the ability and the courage to meet with obstructions and move forward, in the face of challenges. Otherwise, our performance would not be realized. Fourth, Thithi Dhathu. That is, stay firm in the intended path. Even in the midst of opposition or challenges, we have to develop the ability to be focused and move with a clear vision and determination. We should not be distracted. We should not dilute the impact of our performance. 2  BIS Review 10/2008  Fifth, is the Thawara Dhathu. That is, the action should convey a strong stable message of commitment and dedication. Such a strong signal is often infectious and when the leader shows such firm commitment, performance often improves. Sixth, Upakkama Dhathu. That is, being wise to cleverly steer the path and induce others to also support the performance of the particular action. That is not easy, but it is vital. Inducing all within the team to move towards a single goal is the best assurance of success. We are today living and working in an unforgiving world. In this unforgiving world, the business sector in which we operate is intolerant of failure. Failure or even suggestion of failure invokes harsh penalties and abrupt ends to promising careers. We show how many important heads rolled after the “sub-prime” issue hit the market. However high and mighty a person may be, failure or non-performance or sub-performance is not forgiven. All past victories are erased with a single failure.

If necessary, it will therefore remain active in the foreign exchange market to influence monetary conditions. Thank you very much for your attention. I will now be happy to answer your questions. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1
A sudden withdrawal of foreign investors’ confidence may cause the price of bonds to soften, making new issues temporarily unattractive, but it will not affect the business that had already obtained the funds. However, developing a well-functioning bond market is no easy task. The work done in Thailand is only half completed, with many important agendas still remaining. The ingredients that I have mentioned: adequate supply, good infrastructure, central bank’s active involvement in the market, and investors’ demand - these are all very important. But they alone will not ensure continued success. Success can be assured, and maintained, only if the market is able to win trust and confidence of all investors. This means good governance all round. This means not only a well-supervised and fair trading system, but also a clear and transparent information system. And this covers not only the information on macro economy, government actions and rules and regulations, but also information on the firms, the issuers of the papers, to name but a few. Asia, because of our younger population and our early stages of industrialization, will continue to need funds from outside the region to finance our growth for many years to come. The countries that can succeed in attracting the funds, and more importantly, can properly manage the inflow and outflow of such funds, will have to develop not only the tools, but the high standards to go with it as well. BIS Review 30/2000  4

Robert Ophèle: Micro economic analysis of companies Introductory speech by Mr Robert Ophèle, Second Deputy Governor of the Bank of France, at the Plenary Meeting of the European Committee of Central Balance Sheet Data Offices (ECCBSO), Paris, 18–19 October 2012. *  *  *  Mr President, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure for me to welcome you in our new conference center. I am delighted to receive so many distinguished participants to this meeting, coming from the same universe of statistical institutions or central banks – whether they are members of the Eurosystem or not – and sharing the same interest for micro economic analysis of companies. We are very happy indeed to organise this year’s ECCBSO regular meeting which will enable you to discuss in depth about the past achievements of your task forces and the prospects, drawing possibly some kind of action plans. Undoubtedly, we need to explore further a number of those issues where your Committee is fully and often very successfully involved. I am grateful that BDF can provide, in its turn, the opportunity to host this conference. As you know, Banque de France is one of the co-founders of the Committee and has always shown its commitment by actively contributing to these task forces.
Certainly, a decline in NPL ratios will also be facilitated by an environment of stronger economic growth. In the euro area, such conditions of strong and sustained growth will require the ongoing cyclical recovery to be supported by effective structural policies. In particular, reform efforts need to be stepped up to improve the business environment, which in turn will help increase productivity, employment and growth – and also make the euro area more resilient to shocks. Fiscal policies should support the economic recovery, while remaining in compliance with the European Union’s fiscal rules. The full and consistent implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact is crucial to maintaining confidence in the fiscal framework and ensuring the sustainability of public debt. At the same time, all euro area countries should strive for a more growth-friendly composition of fiscal policies, prioritising public investment and reducing the tax burden on labour. A clear policy focus on the growth agenda will contribute to enhancing confidence and reducing uncertainty about the future. In the case of the euro area, a stronger and more complete Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) will also help improve confidence. The socalled Five Presidents’ Report – “Completing Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union” –  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  provides a roadmap for how to improve the architecture of EMU.

At the same time, this will be the best contribution the euro area can make in terms of promoting strong, sustainable and balanced growth in the world. The cyclical recovery in the euro area is largely supported by developments in private consumption, and more recently also investment. Real GDP rose by 0.3%, quarter on quarter, in the second half of last year. Recent data provide some mixed signals as regards the near-term outlook. While hard data show some improvement in January and February, survey data for the first quarter are consistent with a somewhat weaker growth momentum. Nonetheless, the economic recovery in the euro area is projected to proceed at a moderate pace. Domestic demand should be further supported by the ECB’s monetary policy measures, continued employment gains, the low price of oil and a slightly expansionary fiscal stance. The risks to this growth outlook remain on the downside, however, and relate mainly to the heightened uncertainties regarding developments in the global economy. Headline inflation has remained low and its profile continues to be shaped by the path of energy inflation. In addition the recent partial unwinding of the past depreciation in the external value of the euro reduces the upward price pressure from the external side. Looking ahead, inflation in the euro area is likely to display slightly negative rates in the coming months before picking up later in 2016.
In two weeks’ time an in-depth assessment will be published of Swedish monetary policy during the period 1995-2005, that is, the ten-year period during which the inflation target has been the official anchor for Swedish monetary policy. This report, which is written by researchers Francesco Giavazzi and Frederic Mishkin, will deal with the formulation of the inflation target, to what degree the monetary  7  Chapter 1 in Blinder, A. S. (2004), The Quiet Revolution – Central Banking Goes Modern, Yale University Press, contains a discussion of political and economic cases for central bank transparency. 8  See, for example, Eijffinger, S., and P. Geraats, (2006), ”How transparent are central banks?”, European Journal of Political Economy, 22, 1-21. 9  See Leeper, E. (2003), ”An Inflation Reports Report”, Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review, 2003:3, 94-118, for an evaluation of the Riksbank’s Inflation Reports. 6  BIS Review 111/2006  policy conducted by the Riksbank has contributed to attaining the target during the period, and the bases and forms for monetary policy decisions. I and my colleagues on the Executive Board are very much looking forward to the analyses and debates this assessment will inspire. Thank you. BIS Review 111/2006  7

But how do we explain the episode of the sell-off this January when the market already knew in December that tapering would proceed? 3. Conceptually, it is not very difficult to understand the spillover effects of the UMP on EMEs in the five years after 2009. There was the first phase of spill-over, which entails a period of heavy capital inflows, through the banking and bond market channels, to the EMEs. This was a “happy” phase of the spill-over of UMP because the EMEs basically enjoyed apparently pleasant outcomes in investment, consumption, job creation and economic growth. At the same time, EME currencies appreciated and their foreign reserves increased. However, this period also saw the build up of vulnerabilities in the EMEs. The inflow of capital, including the carry trade in search of yields, created easy monetary conditions, which encouraged rapid credit expansion amongst the households and corporates. While domestic consumption and investment became buoyant, most EMEs experienced a significant deterioration of their current account positions. Needless to say, inflationary pressure and overheating in the asset markets also built up in most EMEs. This was why some EMEs, Hong Kong included, have introduced macroprudential measures to tackle the spill-over  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  effects of the UMP of advanced economies. While it is too early to tell whether these macroprudential measures were effective, the EMEs seem to be entering the second phase, which I would call the “unhappy” period, of the spill-over.