samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
On the basis of such considerations, we find that it is difficult to make a case for central bank lending and the regulatory and supervisory activities that support it.” See “Financial Deregulation, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking,” Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review, May-June 1988. 12  For example, the work prepared by Federal Reserve staff in 2008 to assess possible use of the authority to pay interest on reserves (IOR) did not deal with the fact that some institutions cannot earn IOR, so it did not contemplate that this rate may not serve as a firm floor; see http://www.federalreserve.gov/foia/files/ 20080411.IoR.FOMC.Options.paper.public.pdf. More recent work explicitly considers frictions that limit the effectiveness of IOR to serve as a floor and explores other tools that can support money market interest rates. See, for example, Antoine Martin, James McAndrews, Ali Palida, and David Skeie, “Federal Reserve Tools for Managing Rates and Reserves,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 642, September 2013. 13  In the case of the United States, more research on the relationship between the Eurodollar rate, the federal funds rate, and the repo rate could provide insights on the functioning of our money markets. 14  See Matthew Osborne, “Monetary Policy and Volatility in the Sterling Money Market,” paper presented at the Bank of England-Federal Reserve Bank of New York conference, “Money Markets and Monetary Policy Implementation,” November 16–17, 2015.

Taking care of the large Nordic-Baltic “home market” First of all, we should keep in mind that the Nordic-Baltic region is characterized by considerable diversity: diversity in monetary policy frameworks, models of economic development and financial structures. The second key word of the Nordic-Baltic region is integration – the region is characterized by tight trade and financial ties within the region as well as with Europe and global markets. Therefore, the region’s competitiveness and growth potential are important to each country in the region. The bank groups that finance growth in the region are largely the same in every country. All these groups are currently highly rated and well capitalized in comparison to others in Europe. As a result of mergers and natural growth, the total assets of the larger banks have risen to a high level compared to regional GDP, not to mention their very high level as a ratio to the GDP of their home countries. The combination of common economic interests and financial sector integration has fostered the emergence of a unique feature of the Nordic banking groups: they have extended the concept of the “home market” well beyond their home country’s borders. For example, Nordic parent banks continued to provide liquidity to their Baltic affiliates even during the years of the deepest crisis in the Baltic economies. In today’s slow growth environment, it remains important for competitiveness and growth that there should be an appropriate level of financing in the whole region.
Knowledge will not be enough. We already have a knowledge economy. In future we will need a creative one. That may call for a very different model of education and training. The Great Fire Let me illustrate some of these points with a very simple historical example. It is a particularly poignant one here at the GSA, which has suffered not one but two devastating losses over the past four and a half years. The example is fire. The domestication of fire is, by many people’s reckoning, one of the greatest-ever human discoveries. If you type “greatest ever discoveries” into a search engine, fire typically comes close to the top. It usually ranks alongside the wheel, gunpowder, the printing press, electricity and the internet in people’s all-time top ten. No-one of course knows quite when or where fire was first discovered or at least domesticated. But historians believe the domestication of fire may have occurred around one million years ago, when hunter-gatherer communities were first being formed. Indeed, it has been conjectured, plausibly, that fire was a key factor in allowing those communities to grow and develop. It is not difficult to see why. Fire would have been a truly transformative technology for these communities. It served as a source of heat as well as light. Equally vital then, if less so now, fire served as protection against marauding peoples and animals. Hunter-gatherer communities typically comprised around 150 people.1 This meant they faced existential threat on an almost daily basis.

The engine of societal progress would no longer be human ingenuity, imagination and intelligence. Instead it would be artificial ingenuity, imagination and intelligence. Scared yet? Co-Evolution Don’t be. I want to argue that loss of human jobs and control of their destinies is far from being the only possible, or even the most likely, ending to this story. Humans can remain in work and masters of their own destiny. As in the past, there are good grounds for optimism. This will, however, require some fundamental changes to human skills and human work and in the social institutions supporting them. 26  Manyika et al (2017). Lawrence (2017), and House of Parliament, Parliamentary Office of Science & Technology (2016). 28 Baweja (2016), Lawrence (2017), and Berriman (2018). 29 Kurzweil (2005). 30 Tegmark (2017). 27  13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  13  One reason for optimism is that, for the foreseeable future, humans are likely to retain their upper hand across a number of tasks. One such set of tasks are those requiring large doses of creativity involving leaps of imagination or bespoke design. Super-computers have designed and created international supply chains for nuts. But they are no more likely than squirrels to replace Roald Dahl or Tim Burton any time soon. A second set of tasks not easily machine-reproducible involve interpersonal or social skills. There are robots for childcare and social care. But I doubt they will become the norm. People are social animals and value social interaction above all else.
However, the condition for these welfare gains is that there has been considerable confidence in the Swedish state, Swedish banks and the Swedish housing and mortgage markets. Today a large percentage of the market agents investing in Swedish bonds are outside of Sweden. This means that the Swedish financial system is also dependent on how other countries assess the Swedish mortgage and housing markets. It is important that these markets function well so that we can continue to enjoy a high level of confidence on the financial markets. We therefore have a major responsibility to ensure that the vulnerabilities are limited and that confidence remains strong. This is particularly important given the weaknesses that have emerged as a result of the structure of the financial system. The good access to capital and the large increase in mortgages has also meant that the Swedish banking system has grown, and become one of the largest banking systems in Europe. Moreover, the Swedish banking system consists of a few large banks that are closely interlinked. This means that problems at one bank can easily spread to other banks. All this means that the costs to society could be substantial if we were to suffer a financial crisis. 7  See T, Jansson (2014), Households’ amortisation decisions, The analysis group’s memorandums on household indebtedness, No. 4, Sveriges Riksbank. www.riksbank.se. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  How do we attain a better balance?

6 See Donald Kohn and Brian Sack, Monetary Policy during the Financial Crisis, preliminary discussion draft  presented at the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at Brookings and Yale School of Management Program on Financial Stability event, Responding to the Global Financial Crisis: What We Did and Why We Did It, Washington, D.C., September 11–12, 2018. 7 Possible sources to which this lament has been attributed are catalogued here, although its actual provenance  is not known. 8 As part of our analysis of what went wrong in our forecasting before the Great Recession, researchers at the  Federal Reserve and European Central Bank jointly looked at various methods of more directly including highfrequency fluctuations in our forecasting models. The results from this research are reported in Luci Alessi, Eric Ghysels, Luca Onorante, Richard Peach, and Simon Potter, Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting during the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, number 680, July 2014. 9 See survey questions and results to the Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Markets Participants, Federal  Reserve Bank of New York. 10 Of course, the NBER didn’t actually declare the start of the recession until late November 2008, nearly a year  after it officially began. 11 Estrella and Mishkin’s original paper, updates, related research, and current recession probabilities implied by  the term spread are available on the New York Fed’s Research website.
We expect to implement the risk-based capital frameworks for life and general insurance companies in the third quarter of 2004. BIS Review 43/2004  1  III  Enhancing market discipline  On enhancing market discipline, we began inspection for compliance with the Financial Advisers Act (FAA) last year. We noted a number of best practices during these inspections and have published them in a paper. To alert investors here, we intend to publish a list of unlicensed entities based outside Singapore who are suspected of conducting activities regulated under the Securities and Futures Act and/or FAA. Details will be released by the end of the week. To help consumers become more self-reliant in their financial affairs, MAS has worked with other public sector agencies to launch MoneySENSE, a national financial education programme, in October 2003. In the next few months, MoneySENSE will conduct a national financial literacy survey to benchmark the current level of financial literacy among Singaporeans. We are also facilitating the development of an integrated dispute resolution scheme for the financial sector. IV  Developing the financial sector  On the developmental front, the wealth management industry grew considerably, both in institutional asset management and private banking. Financial institutions enjoyed fresh inflows of funds as well as substantial appreciation in the value of their assets under management. The alternative asset management industry also saw good growth, with the entry of hedge fund managers.

During the year, apart from enhancing the regulatory environment, MAS worked with other government agencies to improve the tax and legal environment for financial institutions involved in the wealth management business. The new Trustees Act is expected to come into force later this year. MAS will also be introducing a framework to regulate trust companies. The proposed framework will ensure high standards of business conduct, professionalism and competence in the trust services industry in Singapore. The Singapore dollar bond market has developed beyond serving the needs of just local borrowers and has attracted a diversified base of foreign issuers as an alternative venue for cost-effective funding. Large issuers, including Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Asian Development Bank have found cost-effective opportunities to tap our bond market. In five years, the market has grown significantly in breadth and depth. Product range has also increased significantly. Structured products now account for more than half of the Singapore dollar bond market. The asset securitisation market has also gained traction, recording a fivefold increase since 1999. To further enhance the attractiveness of Asian capital markets, MAS has, over the past year, worked with various governments in the region to encourage investor demand, and to address market access and market infrastructure issues. The Asian Bond Fund or ABF is one such initiative. After the successful launch of ABF 1, the Executives’ Meeting of East Asia-Pacific Central Bankers or EMEAP is making good progress on ABF2 to invest in local currency-denominated Asian bonds.
The “Large banks” panel shows results for all banks with total assets of £ or above, and separately calculated results for all banks with total assets of £ or above. For both of these definitions of “Large”, results are separately calculated using six definitions of distress: 1) Distress defined as receiving worst possible supervisory rating between July 2007 and December 2008; 2) receiving worst possible supervisory rating between July 2007 and December 2009; 3) any instance of default, receipt of state aid, or merger with or acquisition by another bank under stressed conditions between July 2007 and December 2008; 4) any instance of default, receipt of state aid, or merger with or acquisition by another bank under stressed conditions between July 2007 and December 2009; 5) meets definition 1 or 3; 6) meets definition 2 or 4. Similarly, the “Small banks” panel shows results for all banks with total assets of less than £ and results for all banks with total assets of less than £ in each case using all six definitions of distress. 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  10  Figure 2: Illustration of a graduated prudential framework Under a graduated prudential framework, the regulatory rules a firm faces would widen and become more complex as a firm grows larger and/or undertakes a wider range of activities that are more complex, converging eventually on the Basel standards, as illustrated by the following diagrams.

So boring in fact that when I gave an inordinately long speech on this topic I went all the way to Switzerland so that I could inflict it on their bankers rather than all of you – had I done otherwise I am sure the Lord Mayor would finally have banned me from speaking at this event. But this is a very, very important issue for financial services in the UK because it is the fundamental bedrock of increased dynamism in our  4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  4  regulation. I am delighted therefore that this is the approach the government has proposed in its consultation on the Future Regulatory Framework, and I hope that it will be taken forward as the wider regime develops. Graduation  At this point I fear that the chair whom I annoyed so much last year is becoming restive again, fearing a long lecture on regulatory plumbing. So let me stick with dynamism, but move us on to something a little more tasty that we have been cooking up in the PRA kitchen. We made changes to simplify the credit union regime last year both because it is a good idea and because we are not constrained by EU regulation in that area.
Broken lines refer to the Riksbank’s forecasts  18  07  08  09  10  11  12  Source: The Riksbank  BIS Review 138/2008  Uncertainty in the forecasts    Global economic activity and financial crisis worsen    Higher inflationary pressures    Weaker krona    Poorer impact initially  Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages 7  6  5  7 90% 75% 50% Repo rate Forecast  6  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0 jan-04  0 jan-05  jan-06  jan-07  Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. BIS Review 138/2008  jan-08  jan-09  jan-10  jan-11  Source: The Riksbank  19  A concluding reflection  In the early 1990s  Bank Support Authority and a crisis created mainly on home ground  This experience provides better resilience now    Shortcomings in the global financial system   M easures in both short and long term   Fix what is broken so it will work better in  the future! 20  BIS Review 138/2008

Market predictions of monetary policy measures have been accurate, leading to lower volatility in financial markets and improving the effectiveness of our policy measures A prime example of this is the most recent increase in our operational target in March 2006. An analysis of interest rate movements shows that the increase of our operational target by 25 basis points was almost fully anticipated by financial markets prior to the announcement. Contrary to what many believe, a central bank does not lose any prestige in seeing its policy correctly anticipated by the markets. It is just proof of a well-understood monetary strategy. 3. Credibility - words are not enough  In Switzerland, the systematic communication of monetary policy has had the desired effect of getting market participants to adapt their expectations well before actual policy interventions are made. Does this mean that the Swiss National Bank now only has to indicate its intentions in order to influence interest rates? Or as some academics and practitioners have posed the question: can central bankers now replace open market operations with "open mouth" interventions? Considering the recent tightening of monetary policy in Switzerland, one might be tempted to agree that open mouth operations are sufficient to move interest rates. After all, short-term interest rates rose long before an increase in the operational target was announced or before we raised the actual interest rates on repo transactions. However, this interpretation of the data ignores one crucial issue.
In Asia in particular, while new bond issuance fell more than 40% compared to 2021, syndicated lending saw modest growth. Quite remarkably, the green and sustainable segment grew by around 50% in 2022. 4. It's worth asking why we continued to see growth and innovation in Hong Kong during the challenging 2022: I believe it's because we benefit from some unique fundamental strengths, as well as some supportive policy measures. 5. So, what are these strengths? First, Hong Kong has a strong banking network. We are home to over three quarters of the world's top 100 banks. With a robust capital adequacy ratio of around 20%, a liquidity coverage ratio of over 160% and a low classified loan ratio of about 1.4%, our banks are always looking for new business. They give Hong Kong the liquidity and expertise needed to handle transactions of any size and complexity, and at highly competitive rates. 6. Our banking system operates within a vibrant financial ecosystem that offers plenty of opportunities for collaboration and cross-feritlisation. This is the most obvious with the bond market, which has a symbiotic relationship with the loan market in providing credit financing. Here again we are by far the number one in Asia. According to the International Capital Market Association, for six consecutive years to 2021, Hong Kong was the largest hub for arranging international bond issuance from Asia, capturing one-third of the market; we anticipate that Hong Kong will top the rankings again in 2022.

In time tighter credit conditions could mean weaker business investment, though so far forward indicators of investment intentions still point to fairly strong growth. And any marked increased in uncertainty about demand conditions could lead to investment plans being shelved. But it is still early days – too early to draw strong conclusions about the size of these effects. Even more uncertainty surrounds the possible impact of tighter credit conditions on household spending, which alone accounts for three fifths of total domestic demand. There is already some evidence that banks are tightening the price and non-price terms on which they lend, especially to borrowers with relatively poor credit histories. And quoted fixed rate mortgage rates have already risen relative to market expectations of Bank Rate – though since markets now expect Bank Rate to fall instead of rising, the pick up in actual mortgage rates remains quite small. Overall, households seem to be in a relatively strong position: debt has risen a lot relative to incomes, but so too have holdings of financial and real assets. Mortgage arrears and repossessions remain well below their peak levels in the early 1990s. But the share of income which needs to be devoted to interest rate payments was already set to rise sharply,  2  BIS Review 136/2007  largely as a result of rising debt levels. And there is a growing minority of households who are reporting difficulties with their debts.
SPEECH DATE:  06/11/2018  SPEAKER:  Stefan Ingves  VENUE:  Di Framtidens betalningar  SVERIGES RIKSBANK SE-103 37 Stockholm (Brunkebergstorg 11) Tel +46 8 787 00 00 Fax +46 8 21 05 31 registratorn@riksbank.se www.riksbank.se  The e-krona and the payments of the future When did you last pay with cash? I suspect it was rather a long time ago. In Sweden, the Riksbank's money has been used for 350 years, so it entails a historical shift if you and all of us, completely stop using central bank money to make payments. Today we can buy food, pay our bills and receive medical prescriptions without needing to leave our homes. The more goods and services we purchase digitally, the more we need rapid and simple payment services that are adapted to our new way of shopping. Is it a problem that cash is being used less and less? Yes, in a way it is. If the Riksbank is to fulfil its mandate, to ensure that Sweden has a payment system that is both safe and efficient, the means of payment we issue must also be used. I believe that the arguments that once led to the central banks being allowed to issue money are still relevant, it is only the technology that has changed. This is why we at the Riksbank have decided to build a pilot version of a new type of Riksbank money – a digital krona, or e-krona.

Thomas Jordan: Real estate, mortgages and monetary policy Speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the IAZI, Schweizer Immobilienkongress 2009, Zurich, 10 November 2009. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  There is a close interrelationship between real estate, mortgages and monetary policy. On the one hand, monetary policy impacts on the real estate and mortgage market. When the central bank reduces interest rates, this eases the burden on household and company budgets and fosters the demand for real estate. On the other hand, monetary policy also takes account of developments on the real estate market because these can affect economic growth, inflation and financial stability. Once again, the current financial crisis has thrown these interrelationships into sharp relief. Problems in a number of mortgage and real estate markets – in particular in the US and the UK – triggered the financial crisis and plunged the global financial system into a systemic crisis. This impacted on Switzerland’s financial stability and made it necessary to create the StabilisationFund for the transfer of illiquid UBS assets. The Swiss real estate and mortgage market played a positive role in various measures adopted by the SNB to handle the financial crisis. Swiss mortgages played a role in securing Swiss financial stability in the Limmat Pfandbrief transactions, whereby big banks improved their refinancing situation by issuing covered bonds.