samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
More than one banker and merchant in the City has said to me recently, “I cannot recall a time when credit was more easily available”. How worried should we be? Let me begin with the implications for the stability of markets and institutions before turning to monetary policy. Securitisation is transforming banking from the traditional model in which banks originate and retain credit risk on their balance sheets into a new model in which credit risk is distributed around a much wider range of investors. As a result, risks are no longer so concentrated in a small number of regulated institutions but are spread across the financial system. That is a positive development because it has reduced the market failure associated with traditional banking – the mismatch between illiquid assets and liquid liabilities – that led Henry Thornton and, later, Walter Bagehot to promote the role of the Bank of England as the “lender of last resort” in a financial crisis. But the historical model is only a partial description of banking today. New and ever more complex financial instruments create different risks. Exotic instruments are now issued for which the distribution of returns is considerably more complicated than that on the basic loans underlying them. A standard collateralised debt obligation divides the risk and return of a portfolio of bonds, or credit default swaps, into tranches. But what is known as a CDO-squared instrument invests in tranches of CDOs.

Assessing the effective degree of leverage in an ever-changing financial system is far from straightforward, and the liquidity of the markets in complex instruments, especially in conditions when many players would be trying to reduce the leverage of their portfolios at the same time, is unpredictable. Excessive leverage is the common theme of many financial crises of the past. Are we really so much cleverer than the financiers of the past? Concerns about the rate at which credit is being created extend to monetary policy. As I said last week in Cardiff, it would be optimistic in the extreme to suppose that the rapid growth of money and credit could be dismissed solely as a positive shock to the demand for money. The spread between interest rates paid by households and businesses and interest rates available in the money market has fallen. This has been one of the factors behind the strength of demand in the UK economy over the past  2  BIS Review 69/2007  year. Despite greater availability of labour, businesses have not expanded employment sufficiently to prevent stronger demand from increasing capacity pressures. Such pressures encourage businesses to raise prices. And that is exactly what the business surveys suggest has been happening. That underlying upward pressure on inflation has in part been hidden by the volatility of domestic energy prices. But it is why we have raised interest rates four times and by 1 percentage point in all over the past year.
Therefore, it is important for us to take care of financial system stability as well when we conduct  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  monetary policy. The Bank of Thailand has been closely monitoring the expansion of private sector’s loans and assessing ability of debt repayment of the private sectors, especially the middle and the low income groups. Second, on exchange rate policy, the main challenge is that the Thai baht has been on an appreciating trend due to various factors, including capital inflows surge into the region, structural change in the world economy, growth differential between advanced and emerging economies as well as accommodative monetary policy in advanced economies. Generally, allowing the exchange rate to be determined by the market can serve as an automatic stabilizer in the short-term and as an important price signal and catalyst for structural change in the long term. So, as the first line of defense, the exchange rate should be determined by market mechanism and from both the market and our own assessment, the Thai baht still remains broadly in line with economic fundamentals. However, the BOT stands ready to use policy instruments at our disposal to prevent and manage dysfunctional market conditions, excessive speculation or exchange rate overshooting. It should be noted also that, the baht appreciation at this juncture provides an opportunity for businesses to upgrade their technology and productivity.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Approval of the internal audit policy The approved internal audit policy, followed by the revision of the Regulation on the Functioning of the Control Department, defines clearly the position of the activity of the internal audit within the organisational structure of the Bank of Albania. This document provides for the implementation of the Standards for the Professional Practice of Internal Auditing and the Code of Ethics, and specifies the line of reporting of the Inspector General to the Audit Committee, Supervisory Council and Assembly of the Republic of Albania. Approval of the new Statute of the Bank of Albania The new Statute provides for the compliance of many of the provisions for the organisation and functioning of the Bank of Albania with the best practices of the European System of Central Banks. Among others, I would like to mention: -  specification of duties and responsibilities of the Administrators of the Bank of Albania;  -  specification of procedures for the replacement of the administrators, during their absence or when they are unable to act;  -  reformulation of provisions that stipulate the administrative and financial independence of the Bank of Albania by approximating them to the provisions stipulated in the Statute of the European Central Bank. Approval of the Medium-Term Development Strategy and Budget for 2016–18 The medium-term strategy summarises key objectives and major ambitions of the Bank of Albania for the next three years.
In addition to customer onboarding and account maintenance, Banking Made Easy would seek to facilitate the use of technology in the areas of online finance, online wealth management and robo advisers. (E)  Open API  The HKMA is currently consulting the banking industry to formulate a framework for facilitating the development of Open API. In the context of banks, Open API refers to a set of publicly available coding that enables recognised third-party service providers, with the consent of the customers 4/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  concerned where appropriate, to connect to, and conduct data exchange with, the IT systems of the banks. Open API can serve many purposes. For example, it may allow users of online discussion forums and social media platforms to obtain information about products and services of banks for comparison and analysis. Many lifestyle websites and mobile apps may make use of Open API to integrate banks’ foreign exchange and payment services to offer end-to-end holiday or health-care packages. A bank customer may benefit from Open API by using thirdparty applications to consolidate for analysis purposes his cash flow and investments kept in several bank accounts. However, the key benefits of Open API can be reaped only if it is widely adopted in the banking sector. And this is precisely the reason why some jurisdictions are taking steps to encourage or, in the case of the EU including the UK, even mandate through legislation financial institutions to subscribe to Open API.

The public commitment that the Committee will do whatever it takes to hit the inflation target is central to the conduct of monetary policy. It underpins the credibility of the inflation target. This commitment is more important than ever in the current environment of unprecedented shocks and unconventional policy measures. Recent events have raised the question of whether the Committee could provide even more information about its policy strategy by committing to keep interest rates low for a particular period of time or until the economic outlook evolves in some specified way. The difficulty is in designing such a commitment that would be both useful and that the Committee would be willing to adhere to. A commitment to keep interest rates low for a certain period of time runs the risk of being overtaken by events. The past eighteen months has demonstrated only too well how rapidly the state of the economy can change. I truly have little idea as to how long Bank Rate will need to be maintained at its current low level in order to meet the inflation target. As such, it would make little sense to commit to a rule that suggested I did! The potential benefit of a state contingent commitment – in which the MPC commits to maintaining Bank Rate at its current level until the economic outlook has evolved in a particular way – is that it may aid the public’s understanding of how the Committee is likely to react to economic developments.
Effects of EU accession The EU accession has led to even better market access for local producers and has given Estonia as well as the other new Member States a kind of "seal of quality" as an investment destination. Already the prospect of the EU accession enhanced these countries' credibility in the eyes of investors. But since the accession, the inflow of funds has been especially strong, as economic situation in the euro area was combined with higher global liquidity. Furthermore, the geography of investors has broadened. The prospect of adopting the euro in a relatively near future has lowered interest margins in several of the new Member States including Estonia and has given an additional boost to investments. The above factors, including convergence, as a background, one may speculate about the length of the current economic cycle, and where exactly we stand in that cycle at the moment. In short, there are some suggestions that we might have entered unusually long economic cycle and may be coming closer to the peak of the cycle. However, many of the current vulnerabilities of the Baltic economies are also tied in with these effects of the EU accession and rapid convergence. Understanding these risks requires careful analysis. Let me now turn to my second topic - challenges the strong economic and credit growth are offering.

More than ever, corporations’ fortunes and survival are now more closely linked. New realities require new paradigms. Co-opetition. How we cope with the new realities will depend on our ability to re-set our minds and leverage on networks to create value; at the customer, the firm, and at the system levels. There is enormous potential in re-defining strategies in competition and cooperation. Imagine the possibilities that could be achieved with strategic investments in shared infrastructure and the ability to share data securely across individuals and entities. We could significantly reduce costs, improve access, deliver superior customer experience which was previously not possible, with the network of shared information, better management and improved resilience against risks. 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  A new paradigm on stability It has been 10 years since the global financial crisis. The global insurance industry is now on stronger and more stable foundation. Industry leaders and supervisors may be satisfied with what was achieved since then, but there is certainly no room for complacency. Achieving stability objectives will become more challenging as the complexities of risk identification increase. We know that insurance companies can create systemic risks, even though we may differ in our views over the intensity of such risks. There is a ‘constructive tension’, arising from the need to significantly strengthen regulation and supervision while balancing the need for growth, development and innovation. In a world characterised by fierce competition, complex product offerings and evolving customers’ needs, there is always the risk of administering excessive and complicated regulations.
Switzerland’s neighbours saw an upswing in industrial output and exports, although domestic demand in these countries remained - and still remains - sluggish. In Switzerland, too, the long-awaited but oft-delayed upswing finally began to make itself felt. The first signs of the upturn became apparent in the summer. These were initially in isolated areas but then became increasingly widespread. The confidence indicators began rising, and order books swelled. The turnaround was facilitated by a marked weakening of the Swiss franc, which was itself triggered by a renewed easing of our monetary policy in March. This downward correction in the franc, which continued for the rest of the year, came as a welcome respite for Switzerland’s export industry, which had been buffeted by the weak global economy and the fall-off in international trade. The Swiss franc’s slide against the European currency was gradual, extending over almost a year. Our currency’s exchange rate dropped from CHF 1.46 against the euro in March 2003 to CHF 1.55 today, thus depreciating by about 6%. The franc’s fall is even greater in real terms owing to the higher inflation rate which prevailed - and still prevails - in the euro zone. Also in real terms, the Swiss franc is worth less in euros than when the single currency was launched five years ago. This development shows that, as the new European currency has gained in stature, the markets have taken a different view of the safe-haven role traditionally played by the franc.

Resulting from the structural optimisation held in 2014, the Bank of Russia cut 3,500 jobs or 5.3% and its workforce amounted to 61,800 employees as of early 2015. I would like to note that the number of employees was reduced, while the Bank of Russia obtained vast powers as a megaregulator. However, we will continue reducing the workforce. In conclusion I would like to say that the Bank of Russia faces challenging tasks in a challenging period in the country’s history. We completely assume our responsibility. I am convinced that there are all the prerequisites to put the economy on the track of sustainable growth while ensuring the necessary macroeconomic and financial stability in joining our efforts. Thank you very much for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
This document sets out the institutional objectives throughout a three-year period, 2016–2018, and identifies the measures and sources needed to accomplish these objectives. The fulfilment of these objectives depends, first of all, on how understandable we are to the public, how responsible we are in our policies and actions, and how trustworthy we are to the public. Hence, enhancing the Bank of Albania’s independence is always considered related to the strengthening of transparency and accountability. In terms of accountability, the Bank of Albania has regularly fulfilled the accountability obligations to the Parliament, the financial system and the public. Also, information on the activity and results of the Internal Audit Department is attached to the Annual Report 2016. Also, the financial statements and the opinion of the external independent auditor were an integral part of the Annual Report, in compliance with the International Audit Standards. The approval of the financial statements in compliance with the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS Standards) was among the most important priorities of the Bank of Albania for 2015. The implementation of this priority over 2016 met the legal requirements and observed the internal and external recommendations. Transparent communication is an important pillar in Bank of Albania’s activity for both fulfilling the responsibility for maximum transparency about decision-making and its effects, and raising public confidence in the central bank.

In order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute much more decisively to strengthening economic growth. The implementation of structural reforms needs to be substantially stepped up to increase resilience, reduce structural unemployment and boost productivity and potential output growth. Regarding fiscal policies, all countries should intensify efforts towards achieving a more growth-friendly composition of public finances. A full and consistent implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact and of the macroeconomic imbalances procedure over time and across countries remains crucial to enhance the resilience of the euro area economy. We are now at your disposal for questions. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Let me also touch upon a very important area of our statistical work – co-operation between statistical authorities, namely between the Czech Statistical Office and the Czech National Bank, not only in the preparation of this conference but on a regular basis. This co-operation is aimed at an effective arrangement of statistical processes in our country and minimizing the burden on respondents. Coordinated data collection and sharing of information are the key points in this respect. As we know, a formal arrangement is always a necessary but not sufficient condition for good results. It has become a standard between these two institutions to meet once a year at an annual summit devoted not only to the assessment of the past twelve months’ work and designing the tasks for the period ahead, but also to informal discussions in a friendly atmosphere. This is also an important feature of statistical work since statistics do not involve only figures, but also people who create and compile them. 2  BIS Review 107/2009  Having finished the description of our co-operation in this way, I would like to wish all participants of the conference the same friendly atmosphere at the conference and at the same time interesting presentations and fruitful discussions in addressing the above mentioned or other statistical issues. Thank you for your attention  BIS Review 107/2009  3

In the course of a decade unemployment has been virtually halved, from 12 to just over 6 per cent. Of course one cannot be certain that other countries’ solutions apply to Swedish conditions in every respect. But it is important to note that GDP growth in the Netherlands has been fairly close to the EU average even though employment has developed very differently. So it is not higher demand in the past decade that lies behind the creation of so many new jobs in the Netherlands. Most of the evidence suggests that traditional demand management is not capable of lowering unemployment appreciably. Instead it is the workings of the labour market and wage formation that are key factors for the possibility of turning the path of unemployment. That is where the efforts must be made. Such efforts might make it possible to combine low inflation with a better development of employment. They could then contribute to increased confidence in economic policy as a whole. At times there seems to be a tendency for the problem of unemployment to generate some uncertainty about economic policy’s long-term commitment. Reforms in the fields of wage formation and the labour market can mitigate the potential conflicts between economic policy’s goals. That would improve the conditions for a continued fall in the level of interest rates relative to the rest of the world, even in a situation where Sweden stays outside the euro area for the time being. BIS Review 68/1997  -7-  4.
I ran through my material – why the economy mattered to them, what the Bank did for a living, what I did for a living etc. It was going about as well as I could have expected. There were plenty of attentive eyes and alert expressions. No-one walked out. “This is working”, I told myself. 59 minutes into the one hour talk, I took a final question from a girl on the far-right in the front row. It is seared on my soul. “Two questions”, she said. “Who are you? And why are you here?” At that point, those questions seemed all too appropriate. Why exactly was I there? Several hours of introspection (and therapy) later, I now have an answer. The key comes in how you keep score. If in a classroom of 50 kids you reach only 1, what is your score? Have you lost 49-1? No. You have won 1-0. This is very important when it comes to judging the success of outreach initiatives, including the Bank’s. Not engaging everyone is no reason not to try to engage someone. One is a good start. It increases the chances of two tomorrow and three the day after. The power of social networks, popular narratives and epidemics in expectations means you may be only one click from critical mass. The Bank will not reach everyone, every day of their lives. Nor does it need to, given what we do for a living.

Gillian added a crucial qualifier: improved understanding of the public by those in finance was every bit as important as improved public understanding of finance. I think this is bang on and not just in the field of finance. Listening is every bit as important as talking when it comes to public policy. The most important reason for this is the most obvious – as policymakers, we stand to learn something. Indeed, because the voices of non-experts are rarely heard and are likely to convey different information than that available from experts, we potentially stand to learn a lot. This is not just conjecture. Statistical studies, drawn from a great many different environments and involving very different decisions, show it to be the case. Expert opinion is an essential starting point for good decision-making. But only a starting point. The judgements of experts can be improved materially by drawing on the views of non-experts. 46  Doing so is the key to what Philip Tetlock calls “super-forecasting.”  More fundamentally, non-experts are us. By numbers, if not salaries, they represent almost all of society. Non-experts do most of the spending and saving in the economy, shaping its growth. It is their wage and inflation expectations that determine whether central banks meet their inflation targets. And it is their trust that needs to be nurtured, and recaptured, if policy institutions are to maintain their legitimacy. Yet extracting views on the economy from non-experts is not easy.