samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It is worth explaining why the stability of the Hong Kong dollar is so important to our economy, and why it is that we have been able to maintain this stability at a time when the fixed exchange rates of so many other freely convertible currencies in the region have collapsed. We are a predominantly externally-oriented economy, and an economy that comes the closest of any in the world to running itself on pure free market principles. The annual value of our external trade is at least two and a half times that of our gross domestic product: most of it takes the form of re-exports. We import nearly all of our daily needs, including food and water. We export most of our manufactured products, together with a large range of financial and other services. We are an international financial centre with huge capital inflows and outflows, and no exchange controls. In such an economic environment, volatile exchange rates would introduce instability and unpredictability without bringing any corresponding advantages, except possibly to those in the foreign exchange industry. Businessmen would face greater currency risks in their international transactions and would be forced to hedge their considerable currency exposures at great cost. Sharp gyrations in the exchange rate, and the kind of overshooting that we have seen in the recent currency devaluations elsewhere would seriously undermine the stability of our financial system, and confidence in it.

Source: Ministry of Finance, Medium Term Program (2010-2012). 28. The determined implementation of fiscal discipline in Turkey since 2002 has helped cut the ratios of government budget deficit and debt to GDP, to a level well below the average of both advanced and emerging economies. Although Turkey’s budget deficit expanded at a faster pace than in many other emerging economies in 2009, according to the MTP projections, government debt stock is likely to remain below the average of other emerging economies in the upcoming years. 10  BIS Review 68/2010  General Government Budget Deficit and Debt Ratio Average Values in Advanced Countries and Turkey  Average Values in Emerging Countries and Turkey  (Percent of GDP)  (Percent of GDP)  100  Aver age of A dvan ced Cou ntrie s**  80 2 008 70 2 003  2003  60 50  20 12  40 2 008  2003  2 003  60 55 2012 50 2 008  45  2012  40  Tur key  Tu rkey  2008  30  35  -2  0  2  4  6  8  10  Budg et D eficit  *Dashed lines indicate forecasts. **Includes USA, UK, Germany, France, Spain, Ireland, Iceland, Japan, Portugal, Israel, Greece, Italy, Austria, New Zealand and South Korea. Source: IMF. Turkish data is taken from the Ministry of Finance, Undersecreteriat of Treasury, Medium Term Program (2010-2012) and Program for 2009. 29.
An assessment of which tools that might be useful will partly depend on the specific features of the Norwegian credit and financial markets and partly on the shocks that hit our economy. The tools we resort to in a crisis may be less suitable in a normal situation. Gains must be weighed against costs. This brings us to some key interrelated questions: what should the level of ambition for monetary policy be, and how far should the limits of monetary policy be stretched before other components of economic policy must take over? Conventional monetary policy – how much room for manoeuvre is there? Chart: The policy rate in Norway First, a few words on our most important monetary policy instrument – the policy rate. Since the trough at 0.5 percent, the policy rate has been gradually raised to 1.5 percent, reflecting favourable developments in the Norwegian economy. In our September interest rate forecast, the policy rate remains close to today’s level of 1.5 percent for the next couple of years. On the one hand, growth in the Norwegian economy is still solid, inflation is close to the target and capacity utilisation is somewhat above a normal level. On the other hand, there is considerable uncertainty about the global growth outlook. The policy rate path reflects a trade-off between these conditions. Chart: Low policy rates abroad A rate of 1.5 percent is considerably lower than the average level for the policy rate since inflation targeting was introduced in 2001.

I trust that in taking part in the competition you have been able to find out more about what we do at the ECB, why we do it, and how our monetary policy works. It seems obvious that you should know what we do at the ECB or what people do in their national central banks. But as a matter of fact, if you do polls, you would be surprised by the amount of confusion that people have. For example, lots of people, about one-third, think that central banks are like other banks, that they are by and large not very different from what other banks do. Now, you will be the selected category that will know that the ECB is a central bank and that central banks are different from banks. And even more importantly, through this exercise, you actually got to have, at a very young age, a European perspective. You understood what is still really missing from lots of people, who still think in terms of national borders. It is very important, of course, but it is not the only reality that we are living through. In fact, the European perspective becomes much more important as time passes. Why is that? Well, because there are many challenges that are in fact supranational by their very nature. That is to say, you can’t really respond to these challenges, and you can’t really address the problems at national level if they are supranational.
We are now reaping the benefits of the measures implemented then. 1  From Jon E. Dølvik, T. Fløtten, G. Hernes and J.M. Hippe (2007): “Hamskifte – Den norske modellen i endring (Fundamental shift – the Norwegian model in flux), p.15, Gyldendal Norsk Forlag A/S. Norwegian only. 6  BIS Review 65/2008  Third, prices for goods we import have fallen, while prices for goods we export have risen. Norway’s terms of trade have thus improved markedly. Sales of Norwegian exports have been high, and we can import more goods for the goods and services sold by the business sector. Lower import prices have led to low inflation and a substantial increase in employees’ real wages. High export prices have resulted in high corporate earnings. Strong economic growth has gradually resulted in high employment and shortages of labour, real capital and other resources. Information from contacts in Norges Bank’s regional network indicates that capacity utilisation has remained at a high level over the past year. Other indicators show that capacity utilisation continued to increase through 2007. Higher  BIS Review 65/1008  7  demand for goods and services combined with a shortage of real resources can easily lead to higher wage and price inflation. In assessing the inflation outlook, we must therefore have a view concerning the level of available resources in the economy. We attempt to smooth fluctuations in output and employment to some extent. In order to do so, we must also judge whether output and employment are high or low.

The output gap reflects our assessment of the level of capacity utilisation. In our projections, we use several methods, a broad range of information and professional judgment. We can never determine the exact level of available resources in the 2 economy. We illustrate the uncertainty by fan charts. Growth in the Norwegian economy has been higher than we assumed a year ago. This reflects a large supply of labour from other countries and high productivity growth, but also increased use of domestic labour and other resources. It is likely that capacity utilisation will have to decline to prevent inflation from becoming too high. 2  8  See Norges Bank Watch 2008 for a critical view on measures on capacity utilisation. BIS Review 65/2008  Unemployment has declined considerably and is now historically low. The increase in employment has been accompanied by a decrease in wage-earners’ share of corporate earnings. Developments must be viewed in the context of the many positive factors that have been at work in the business sector. The impact of a number of these factors may now be diminishing. It is not likely that the improvement in Norway’s terms of trade will simply continue. Productivity growth seems to be slowing and wage growth is picking up. Wage-earners’ share of value added is therefore rising again, and this will probably curb labour demand ahead. A number of other factors may also contribute to reducing capacity utilisation even though petroleum investment remains high and public expenditure is growing at a fast pace.
Victoria Cleland: The road to enhanced payments Speech (virtual) by Ms Victoria Cleland, Executive Director for Banking, Payments and Innovation of the Bank of England, at the Central Bank Spring Meetings, 31 March 2022. * * * It is a pleasure to be joining you today. And to have an opportunity to highlight the importance of a crucial, but in the past too frequently overlooked, element of central banking – payments. The ability to make payments safely and effectively is essential to each and every one of us. And has been for millennia – from the pre-historic communities exchanging seashells and grain to the vast number of electronic payment methods we have today. Effective payments are essential to both trade and commerce: research consistently finds that improved payment methods have a multiplier effect on economic growth.1 The Bank of England, in line with many central banks, plays many roles in the payments industry: as an operator, overseer, user (through our customer banking function) and catalyst. Today my focus is through the lens of the operator of the critical public infrastructure that underpins the functioning of all UK payment systems: the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) service. I will describe how RTGS can help us maintain stability and promote innovation in the context of rapidly changing user needs; and how collaboration between central banks and other public authorities, the industry and the international community can deliver far-reaching benefits.

For instance, Komgo – started by a consortium of banks – seeks to improve the operational processing of international trade and make it easier for buyers and sellers to trade. There are also initiatives aimed to streamline settlement across products and currencies. Fnality – another industry consortium – are seeking to build a network of 24/7 high-value payment systems in multiple currencies. There is also exploratory work led by the central banks. Some of you here today have collaborated with market participants to build prototypes of new platforms for wholesale settlement – so-called ‘wholesale CBDCs’. Many of these prototypes used Distributed Ledger Technology to enable interoperability between platforms and offer enhanced functionality. These experiments bring together a diverse range of stakeholders to build end-to-end solutions for use cases such as bond issuance or settling equity trades, extending beyond the pure payments market. I do wonder though whether the term “wholesale CBDC” is a misnomer. Electronic central bank money has been available to financial institutions for decades via RTGS systems. In the provision of central bank infrastructure the key is not the label, but who can access it and what functionality is provided. Here at the Bank of England we are in the process of renewing our RTGS infrastructure to offer a more accessible, functional and resilient platform for digital settlement in central bank money.
Insurance companies undertake an activity that matters, often critically – for the corporates that rely on protection of insurance for the day-to-day running of their businesses, and for individuals who invest a significant portion of their wealth in insurers over their lifetime, or who rely on insurers to protect them against financial disasters. It is for these very basic reasons that we are interested in insurance as a matter of public policy. However, we cannot justify regulation of an industry just because its activity is important. The aim of regulation is always to correct some sort of market failure. The insurance industry has many characteristics that could lead to the market producing a sub-optimal outcome, if left alone. First, the insurance business model is unusual in that it has an inverse production cycle – insurers typically receive premia upfront for a service that may or may not have to be  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  rendered in future (claims), the cost of which is difficult to calculate. Policyholders rely on the insurance company to set aside appropriate provisions to satisfy future claims, but the market may not always be a reliable mechanism for ensuring that insurance companies do not grow excessively by taking on too much risk. Insurance obligations are often long-term and so policyholders trust insurance companies with their money for considerable periods of time.

The Central Bank developed new tools and introduced new policies to facilitate a stable course in both exchange rates and credit growth and hence, helped the rapid recovery of our country from the deepening of the global financial crisis during 2008–2009; and enabled it to weather the European sovereign debt crisis of 2011–2012 with minimum damage. 1  Barro, Robert J. (1995). “Inflation and Economic Growth.” NBER Working Paper Series, No: 5326. 2  Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. (2009). This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Press. ; Taylor, A. (2012). “The Great Leveraging,” NBER Working Papers, No. 18290. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Loans and exchange rates are the two main variables, which are significant for not only price stability, but also financial stability. Therefore, decreasing excessive volatility in the credit growth rate and exchange rates underpins financial stability. Distinguished Participants, Now I would like to touch upon the contributions of Turkey to global financial stability. Turkey became a member of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) in 2009. It will take part in G20 Troika in 2014 and assume the Annual Presidency of the G20 in 2015. Moreover, Turkey’s representative from the Under secretariat of Treasury will be assigned to the FSB Steering Committee during the 2014–2016 period when Turkey will be in G20 Troika. Moreover, Turkey became a member of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS) in 2009.
At the same time, we recognize that it’s not just individual business lines or firms that are affected, but regulatory changes are having an impact on markets as well. We, collectively, need to spend more time identifying and understanding these impacts as well – and we need to work across jurisdictions to do that. Conclusion In conclusion – we all have a lot to do! First, though, firms need to focus on fixing what was so completely broken – firms were too complicated, MIS was weak, risk management was poor, compliance programs were ineffective and governance was questionable. Once that hard work is on track – and substantially in place – we need to engage in a productive two-way dialogue about the challenges that firms are facing. As I said earlier, rhetoric is fine (and I understand much of this), but without specifics, it’s difficult to know whether the outcomes were intended or not. Yes, we did intend for you to be less complicated and complex; yes, given the weaknesses, we did intend for capital and liquidity to provide assurances to home and host supervisors; and, yes, we do want to know more about your senior management and expect much more interaction with them. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  At times, our outcomes may appear to be in conflict: we want smooth efficient markets that support global growth AND we want a strong, resilient, safe financial system. Our challenge is how to balance those.

Second, the Fed, as the financial system’s lender of last resort, should play an important role in the consolidated supervision of those institutions that have access to central bank liquidity and play a critical role in market functioning. Our ability to directly oversee the risk profile of these institutions is essential to our capacity to make the judgments necessary for using our lender of last resort tools, including critical judgments about liquidity and solvency for individual institutions and for the system as a whole. Those judgments require the knowledge that can only come from a direct, established role in supervision. And replacing our ongoing role as consolidated supervisor with stand-by, contingent authority to intervene would risk exacerbating moral hazard and adding to uncertainty about the rules of the game. Third, the Federal Reserve should be granted explicit responsibility and clear authority over systemically important payment and settlement systems, and the ability to continue to encourage broader improvements in the over-the-counter derivatives markets. Fourth, the Federal Reserve Board should have an important consultative role in judgments about official intervention where there is potential for systemic risk, as is currently the case for bank resolutions under FDICIA. And, finally, the responsibilities for market and financial stability that are accorded the Fed in current and any future legislation will require that the Fed adopt a more comprehensive  4  BIS Review 95/2008  approach to financial supervision and market oversight.
Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid: Islamic finance, e-payments and fintech Opening speech by Mr Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 3rd Islamic Fintech Dialogue (IFD2020), 1 December 2020. * * * It really is a pleasure for me to join you this afternoon to be part of what I am sure will be an illuminating and stimulating dialogue over the next two days. I would like to record Bank Negara Malaysia’s appreciation to ISRA for organising this, but also more broadly, its continued contribution to the development of Islamic finance not just in Malaysia but internationally. As a prestigious research academy, it needs to produce prestigious and breakthrough research, and it needs to have events like this dialogue to further advance the knowledge and exchange of ideas and the cause of Islamic Finance. In 2011, Bank Negara Malaysia issued a 10-year Financial Sector Blueprint. One of the key agendas we wanted to drive was to promote e-payments; at the time, greater use of payment cards, internet banking and online fund transfers. Little did we expect that ‘fintech’, which according to Google Trends was still a nascent term at the time, would grow at the pace and scale we are seeing today. It appears that interest in fintech only picked up rapidly from 2015. Today, many countries, including Malaysia, have adopted it as a key development theme for their financial sector.

Indeed, fintech is to take us beyond payments – faster and cheaper delivery of a far wider range of financial services. Increasing outreach and inclusion. Injection of new competition and transformation of the industry. We see this materialising. There are well over 12,000 start-ups disrupting the financial market globally with fintech investments reaching a record high of $ billion in 2019. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that as of April 2019, there were around 200 fintech start-ups in Malaysia in the areas of payments, blockchain, and lending. CPA Australia apprised that over 75 per cent of Malaysian businesses have embraced at least one fintech product or service over the past 12 months, according to a regional survey. While the disruption continues, traditional financial institutions have been responding. Insights from PW C indicate 77% of traditional financial institutions are increasing internal efforts to innovate, 56% have put disruption at the heart of their strategy, and 31% are already purchasing the services of fintech companies. Many are also partnering with fintech companies. For Bank Negara Malaysia, we have also embraced the fintech agenda, setting up our internal Fintech Working Group in 2016, launching our Fintech Sandbox not long after that and finally, organising our very own industry conference – the MyFintech Week in 2019. To be future ready, we are highly committed to support the digital transformation of the financial sector. Earlier this year, we issued the e-KYC policy document to enable digital on-boarding of customers to occur anytime and anywhere.
There are connections to the fixed income market in both of these considerations. However, this does not mean that we have an opinion on which system solutions the market chooses as long as they fulfil reasonable requirements for security and efficiency. This area lies outside of our core objectives. This is why we also remained outside of the discussion on a fixed income future a few years ago. Given this, I would like to share a few, brief reflections with you. Firstly, I shall go through the advantages of electronic trading. My views on this are mainly a matter of principle. After that I intend to make some brief comments on a few aspects of the Swedish fixed income market today and in this context say a few words on the consequences that electronic trading may entail. Finally, I intend to take up a more specific question, settlement on the fixed income market. We do not consider that this functions sufficiently well from a financial stability perspective. Electronic trading, an opportunity Let me begin by pointing out that electronic trading systems are being used to an increasing extent around the world. It seems reasonable to assume that this means they have clear advantages, otherwise private players would not invest in them. However, a public authority naturally also wonders whether they involve some kind of risk. With this in mind, there has been a study on electronic trading 1 systems made within the framework of the G10 central bank co-operation.

The requirement normally made of a settlement system is that settlement can be achieved even if the largest party should fail. This requirement is not met in Sweden and the security in the Swedish payment system would not be regarded as satisfactory in an international evaluation. VPC's owners, i.e. the banks, undertook to remedy this problem when they purchased VPC from the government. That was in spring 1999, and as far as I know nothing has yet been done. Common to all methods, unfortunately, is that they cost a lot of money to implement and this money has to come from the market players in some way. However, it should be in the interests of the market players that something is done. In the long run, it is unlikely that the banks' international counterparties will accept that settlement in Sweden is done through systems that are inferior to those in the rest of Europe, and with questionable security. It is reasonable that we should live up to the international standards now being established. It would be a defeat for the market if the government had to enforce solutions in this field through legislation. Starting point for a renaissance These brief comments show that there are challenges awaiting those who work on the Swedish fixed income market.