samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Like in most other crisis-affected Asian countries, these relationships played a critical role in the evolution of the crisis in Thailand. The problem of weak governance is not limited to the private sector, however. Regarding monetary policy, a post-crisis survey of stakeholders, consisting of domestic and foreign institutions, government agencies, as well as the general public, revealed that the BOT was also perceived to be plagued with several weaknesses: lack of good leaders, lack of experiences, and lack of transparency. Finally, in the macroeconomic framework as a whole, it is probably obvious from the experiences leading up to the crisis that high growth cannot be reached and sustained in the absence of consistent government economic policies. The most striking example here is the combination of the fixed exchange rate and the financial liberalization policy, which inherently led to underestimation of exchange rate risks. In the end, market stability that the fixed exchange rate regime was intended to foster was undermined by market-driven foreign borrowings. The lesson for Thailand as well as for other emerging economies is that the authorities must regularly review their policy stances in the drive to keep up with changing financial environments. A move towards liberalization, for example, should be examined carefully in the light of the public sector’s capability in stabilization and whether there is sufficient infrastructure in place to support the regime shift. Finally, the crisis reminds us the importance of monetary and fiscal policy coordination.

Malaysia is well positioned to realise this growth potential in renminbi bond and sukuk, given our market size and supporting infrastructure. Malaysia not only has the largest debt securities market in Southeast Asia, but it is also a leading international centre for sukuk issuance. Both markets are evolving as a multi-currency bond and sukuk market. As the renminbi market expands, more information would be needed to provide awareness on market developments. As we transition to using other currencies for trade settlement it will also require businesses to gain new expertise, develop new arrangements and to build new networks. Let me now conclude my remarks. As Asia, and in particular, China’s greater prominence in the global economy, a dynamic response is required in this new operating environment that is now upon us. One of the changes that will shape the international financial system in the years to come is the wider role of the renminbi in trade and finance. While existing international reserve currencies will remain to be important, this will represent an additional currency in the international financial system. This is an expected development as the world economy becomes increasingly multi-polar. In a more complex and more challenging economic and financial environment that is prone to greater volatility and increased uncertainty, there will be a greater trend to diversify risks. This will also contribute to overall global stability in the international financial system.
The second part of my remarks will touch on the key imperatives to best prepare us for the new global landscape, so as to be better positioned to succeed and survive in this new environment. Policy-makers in the world economy have continued to be confronted with policy challenges since the onset of the global financial crisis. While the policy responses have focused on addressing the origins of the crisis – on the extensive build-up of excesses, the over-leverage and over-indebtedness of the private and public sectors, the breakdown in the functioning of financial markets, the loss of competitiveness, and the loss in confidence in the financial system and the economy, the concern now is on achieving a sustained economic recovery that is accompanied by job creation. Half a decade into the crisis, and this has yet to be achieved. In the recent months, the global economy has again experienced a broad-based moderation in growth from an already modest pace. This has stemmed largely from the renewed weakness of the economic recovery in several of the major advanced economies. In the United States, the significant monetary accommodation, reinforced by the large scale financial market interventions and the significant fiscal stimulus during the early stage of the crisis, has averted an economic depression, but it has not, however, brought about a sustained recovery. In Europe, an economic contraction is being experienced, resulting from the combination of fiscal austerity, tight credit conditions, and the continued uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets.

In the financial system, this involves putting in place more comprehensive regulatory frameworks, complemented by enhanced surveillance arrangements and relatively more intrusive supervisory oversight. It also involves having wide-ranging policy tools, including macro-prudential policies, to mitigate and manage the risks emanating from excesses in the financial system. As the experience in the advanced economies has shown, the source of imbalances can arise in a number in segments of the economy, including from the household, the financial and the public sectors. This underscores the importance of prudence; to ensure that growth is underpinned by sustainability and not excesses. A further lesson is to build buffers during the good times to better position us to withstand future shocks. Equally important for policy in the emerging economies is to put in place the necessary foundations for long-term growth. This involves few areas of significance. The first is to create a competitive environment that allows for greater economic flexibility. This includes reforms for a sequenced and gradual removal of distortions prevailing in the economy, lowering the costs of doing business, and to streamline the involvement of the public sector in businesses. The second is to accord importance to investments in modern infrastructure, and to enhance technological readiness that will enable the economy to prepare for the changing economic and financial landscape. Another area of significance is to ensure balanced and inclusive development.
But if employers take this approach for all job roles, where does that leave mid-career jobseekers who may not yet have all the skills required for these roles but may nonetheless have some past experience that is useful? We need to make a concerted eﬀort to give mid-career jobseekers the opportunity to be trained into these new job roles. Employers must be willing to take a calculated chance to hire and train mid-career jobseekers who have good experience but may not have all the requisite skills, but can be trained. Likewise, jobseekers must be willing to step out of their comfort zone, and take a stab at trying new roles and picking up new skills. https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2020/gearing-up-for-new-and-evolving-jobs-in-financial-services  10/18  04/12/2020  "Gearing up for New and Evolving Jobs in Financial Services" - Remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director, Monetary Authorit…  Next, let’s look at where financial institutions are oﬀering the 2,000 traineeships during July 2020 to June 2021. Technology again has the largest number of traineeships on oﬀer, albeit at a lower 23% share. The top traineeship roles are application developers and business analysts. These traineeship programmes oﬀer a good way to scale up capabilities in technology so that Singaporeans can take on such jobs in future. Beyond technology, financial institutions are oﬀering traineeships in insurance and banking, in areas such as compliance, risk management, and process excellence. The pilot employment outlook survey has provided a useful forward-looking view of hiring prospects in the financial sector.

Second, the forecast depends not only on future interest rates but lots of other conditioning assumptions as well, any of which can shift from one quarter to the next. So even to the extent you can infer anything from the forecast about the MPC’s view of the yield curve, this too can only ever be a highly conditional inference. Perhaps that’s why the two-year inflation is not actually a very good predictor of changes in interest rates (as we shall see). Empirically, what matters more is the subsequent evolution of the economy. Another difficulty is that the yield curve may not actually be giving us a pure read on the market’s interest-rate expectations to begin with. It’s long been recognised that forward yields, even on “risk-free” instruments like government bonds, can be affected by shifts in risk or term premia. The MPC’s forecasts are conditioned on the yield curve as it is, not what we believe the market’s true expectation to be. So, in and of itself, this doesn’t invalidate the sort of inferences we’re talking about. But it’s certainly a complicating factor. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Flexible inflation targeting Let me expand on the first point with the help of some simple simulations, performed using the Bank’s COMPASS model of the economy.
8  For example, in the minutes of its policy meetings since mid-2014, the FOMC has repeatedly stated that “a gradual approach to raising the target range for the federal funds rate” was judged to be appropriate, while the minutes of the ECB’s policy meetings have noted that “prudence, patience and persistence with regard to monetary policy remained warranted”. 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7  b) Median household Bank Rate expectations Per cent 2014 Q1  6  2015 Q1  Pre-crisis average level of Bank Rate (5.2%)  2016 Q1  5  2017 Q1  4  2018 Q1  3 2 1 0  0  1  2  3 Years ahead  4  5  6  Notes: Household expectations are from the Bank/TNS Inflation Attitudes survey and show how Bank Rate is expected to increase relative to the rate prevailing at the time. Pre-crisis average Bank Rate is calculated from 1997 to 2007 inclusive. c) Proportion of households and companies expecting an increase in Bank Rate within the next year Per cent 100  EU referendum  90 80 70 60 50 Households  40 30 20  Companies  10 0  Jan. 2016  July  Jan. 2017  July  Jan. 2018  Sources: Deloitte CFO survey and IHS Markit Household Finance Index (HFI).

Let us not forget the fact that the link has served Hong Kong well in the last 14 years by providing an anchor for monetary stability, without which it would not have been possible for Hong Kong to weather numerous shocks during this period and to develop into a leading financial, trade and services centre in the region, with a per capita income higher than many of the developed economies, including the United Kingdom. Even in the latest regional currency turmoil, the link has once again proved its resilience and the Hong Kong dollar has remained very stable against the US dollar. However, questions or doubts have emerged on whether the price for maintaining the link is too high for Hong Kong. 3. This leads me to my next point. Is the price for maintaining the link too high for Hong Kong? The higher interest rates resulting from the defence of the $ under the currency board arrangement are causing some pain, especially on the asset markets and on the finance costs for doing business generally. It is true that, under the currency board mechanism, when the $ is under speculative selling pressure, local interbank interest rates may go up sharply, as they did on 23 October. On 24 October, the major banks raised their best lending rate by 75 b.p. to 9.5% in view of the rising funding costs.
Another issue to consider is the extent to which resolution authorities should be able to impose a temporary stay on early termination rights for CCP participants, which may be normally triggered upon the entry of the CCP into resolution.17 This topic will surely feature prominently in the discussions on the implementation of CCP resolution regimes. In sum, debates regarding the appropriate level of CCP resources should not prevent us from addressing other crucial issues linked to resolvability. Keeping the systemic perspective in sight I have repeatedly made the point that increasing the level of financial resources available to CCPs requires careful consideration, in view of the potential costs for all relevant stakeholders. I believe it may also be necessary to examine the effects of any additional CCP requirements on the financial system as a whole. First and foremost, it will be important to ensure that incentives for central clearing are not negatively affected. Efforts by authorities to strengthen the robustness of the financial system would be compromised if additional funding costs were to push participants away from CCPs and back into the bilateral world. It will therefore be crucial to ensure consistency between new rules affecting CCP loss absorption and the collateral regime for bilateral trades, and the capital regime for banks’ exposures to CCPs. 17  The exercise of early termination rights by a large number of participants could place further strain on the failing CCP and prevent it from continuing critical operations and services.

This involved several key financial education initiatives for students and households in Malaysia, including the School Adoption Programme that was supported by the Ministry of Education and the financial industry. More recently, it has progressed to the integration of financial education into the school curriculum. This has been made possible through the successful collaboration between Bank Negara Malaysia and the Ministry of Education. Ladies and gentlemen The compilation of caricatures in Financial LATeracy is organised according to specific money management themes while the exhibition allows visitors to experience and appreciate the fine works of Datuk Lat while highlighting key money management messages. The timeless caricatures showcased in Financial LATeracy also embodies the true essence of a multicultural Malaysia, depicting the diversity of our people, cultures and traditions. Of significance is the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  influence that his works have had in promoting social harmony and benevolent values that bring the diverse people of Malaysia together. Most Malaysians have grown up with his drawings. His works have touched on so many aspects of the lives of Malaysians, providing us with powerful insights into the social and political scenes of this country. The power of story telling by Datuk Lat transcends beyond the drawing of cartoons. He is among the artists who have been observers that are the most honest and critical of developments in our society.
In such a case, the chances of achieving the best policy mix are higher when macroprudential and monetary policy tools are well coordinated, which is considerably easier if they are both managed by the central bank. Finally, analysing and monitoring systemic risk and the impact of macroprudential instruments requires competences akin to those that are traditionally assembled within central banks, where having a macro perspective on the economy and an understanding of financial markets is paramount for the fulfilment of the price stability mandate. In sum, then, there is a compelling rationale for giving central banks a prominent role in the fight against systemic risk, in the design of macroprudential policy and in the management of macroprudential instruments. Uniting the responsibilities for monetary and macroprudential policy within the same institution is sure to improve information sharing and policy coordination. For many central banks, and certainly for the SNB, the responsibility for macroprudential policy and the shift in focus from crisis management to a more active role in crisis prevention constitute a reinterpretation of our financial stability mandate. For the SNB, it brings new competences on two levels: first, the SNB is endowed both with the responsibility for identifying financial institutions that are systemically important and with the authority to designate them as such. And second, it is responsible for monitoring cyclical risks and, to that end, for proposing to the federal government the activation and the level of the countercyclical capital buffer.

In asset management, an industry report 7 estimates the number of high net worth individuals and their financial wealth in Asia combined to be about the same as those of Europe and America, but growing faster. The number of Asian middle class has also surged with economic growth. While growth momentum may moderate in the next few years as the global economy recovers, the underlying trend remains. The growing interest in Islamic funds will provide opportunities for asset managers who can provide the right products. In short, my second reflection is that nature of financial services in the coming years will change, with a focus on deepening the symbiotic relationship between financial services and economic growth. This will be favourable for various segments of Islamic finance. Nature of financial regulation Let me move on to my third reflection, on the nature of financial regulation. This crisis shows that proper regulation of financial activities is difficult – it’s unpopular to take away the punch bowl when the party is going. But it is necessary. Equally important is the need to focus on the economic substance and underlying risks of the activities, regardless of its form. Prof. Rifaat provided a very timely reminder when he said recently, “Every financial institution requires close supervision, regardless of whether it is conventional or Islamic.” While Islamic Finance has features that make it robust, there are also risks such as liquidity and concentration risks that demand special attention.
Targeted measures include: –  limits on high Loan-to-Income mortgages introduced last year, which contributed to the share of households with very high mortgage debt to income ratios falling back to levels last seen in the 1990s (Chart 4);2  –  requirements for banks to assess whether borrowers could still afford their mortgages at much higher levels of Bank Rate; and  –  the current review of underwriting standards for Buy-to-Let being conducted by the Bank’s prudential supervisors.3  Chart 4: FPC action capped share of new mortgages that can be originated at above 4 ½ times income  Risk scenario  0  1  Per cent of new loans  After FPC action  2  3  4  5  Loan to income (LTI) Sources: FCA Product Sales Data and Bank calculations. The risk scenario considered how the distribution of LTIs of new loans might have might evolved if momentum in the housing market had continued to build from mid2014 in a way that was similar to the patterns seen in the UK housing market in the early 2000s.After FPC action line pertains to 2014Q4 – 2015Q3. In addition, given the financial system has moved out of the post-crisis period of heightened risk aversion, the FPC has made clear its intention to set the Countercyclical Capital Buffer above zero before the level of risk becomes elevated. With active macroprudential policy, monetary policy can focus on its primary job of inflation control. It is that to which I will now turn.

11  Moreover, recent revisions, lowered the level of output by around 0.3% in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the previous data vintage. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Chart 5: Headline growth rate has moderated 3.5 3.0  2.0 1.5  Per cent  2.5  1.0 0.5  GDP growth (oya) Average within each calendar year Sep 15  Jun 15  Mar 15  Dec 14  Sep 14  Jun 14  Mar 14  Dec 13  Sep 13  Jun 13  Mar 13  Dec 12  Sep 12  Jun 12  Mar 12  Dec 11  Sep 11  Jun 11  Mar 11  Dec 10  Sep 10  Jun 10  Mar 10  0.0  Source: ONS and Bank calculations. Chart 6: Household consumption has accelerated despite slowing headline growth 3.5  GDP growth (oya)  3.0  Household consumption growth (oya)  2.5 2.0 1.0 0.5  Per cent  1.5  0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Sep 15  Jun 15  Mar 15  Dec 14  Sep 14  Jun 14  Mar 14  Dec 13  Sep 13  Jun 13  Mar 13  Dec 12  Sep 12  Jun 12  Mar 12  Dec 11  Sep 11  Jun 11  Mar 11  Dec 10  Sep 10  Jun 10  Mar 10  -2.0  Source: ONS and Bank calculations.
While such a timeinconsistent policy may be desirable in theory, in an individualistic committee like ours, with a regular turnover of members, it is not possible to implement a mechanism that would credibly bind future members in the manner required. Nevertheless, by reducing uncertainty about our behaviour, we are aiming to encourage households and businesses to spend and invest. The knowledge that monetary policy will not be tightened until the UK’s fledgling recovery is secured should boost confidence. Moreover, it should reduce the likelihood that the present expansionary monetary stance is withdrawn prematurely through an upward movement in market interest rates. Short-term yields have moved up since our announcement on a string of good news about the economy, but the unemployment threshold, by serving as a reminder of just how much growth is needed to regain lost ground, should temper the extent of any tightening. Indeed, for that reason, guidance is potentially more valuable during exit than during entry. Finally, given the uncertainty about the causes and durability of the recent exceptional weakness in UK productivity growth, it also provides a robust framework within which to test the scope for economic expansion without jeopardising price or financial stability. While guidance – and good central bank communication more generally – will be important during exit, I doubt very much that good central bank communications alone can ensure that it will be completely smooth. When a central bank’s reaction function is not well understood, market interest rates tend to respond to policymakers’ actions in response to economic data.

It is of paramount importance that the decision on ERM II entry be taken only when macroeconomic fundamentals provide for a realistic deadline for the entry into the euro system in, say, two or three years' time. Still, there are some really good arguments for as rapid a possible EMU accession... For an accession country, it is important that the experience of past enlargements has shown - high rates of real convergence can be achieved in connection with the EU accession. There are several explanations for this phenomenon, including full integration into the single market, reduction of various political and economic risks etc. Adopting the euro can support economic integration through a higher correlation in economic cycles - as well as lower transaction costs and lower risk premiums. It is also clear that EMU participation reduces monetary uncertainty. For instance, had it not been for the EMU, European financial markets could probably have been much more turbulent during the Asian and Russian crises and the recent slowdown of the global economy. For an accession country, a rapid ERM-EMU accession could mean a further rise in its international credibility - take, for example, the developments in Greece who clearly benefited from ERM2 credibility in 1999, after the Asian crisis.