samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Copper prices and terms of trade began to decline. Today the picture is quite different: the dollar is weaker than ever and the copper price has remained very high, and is forecast to stay near its present levels for some time (figure 8). Another issue regarding exchange rate’s discussion has to do with the effects of capital flows. Several emerging economies have seen their capital inflows increasing, which has added pressure on their currencies. It is worth noting, however, that this phenomenon is not generalized, because current-account deficits have remained fairly bounded. In the overall group of emerging economies, capital inflows are today close to where they were during mid1990s, and certainly below the levels of 2006–2008. However, outflows from these economies largely exceed those of the 1990s, resulting in a near-zero net balance (figure 9). Chile is not so different, with even negative net balances (figure 10). Besides, the structural conditions of our economy and the policy framework are not those of the 1990s. For instance, interest rates paid on indexed Central Bank instruments are now less than half (figure 11). The opportunity of high short-term returns, that are normally associated with massive flows of this kind of capital, is probably not so obvious anymore in our economy. The possibility that increased capital flows may stimulate unhealthy growth in lending is another cause for concern. The data do not show for the moment that credit is growing fast.

It is also suggested that the current level of the neutral MPR is probably lower than previous estimates, influenced by the low international interest rates. Thank you for inviting me to present at the Monetary Club of Universidad Finis Terrae. This is a good opportunity to review some recent developments in the Chilean economy, in particular the behavior of the exchange rate, the forex intervention under way, and our monetary policy decisions. But before diving into these issues, let me take a look at some important elements shaping the international scenario, which is where the main risks and tensions facing our economy originated. The international economy The global economy is leaving the Great Recession behind. Its recovery, however, has been heterogeneous and is subject to risks. The developed world still hasn’t fully overcome the negative effects of the crisis, while emerging markets are currently in a strong growth path. Despite they did not commit the excesses of their advanced counterparts; they suffered the effects of the crisis. Overall, the magnitude of the impact on growth in emerging economies was milder than it could have been expected based on recent history, and emerging economies were even able to recover quickly and strongly (figure 1). The good performance of emerging economies is grounded on their macroeconomic policy schemes. These have evolved and improved over time, partly because lessons have been learned from numerous previous shocks, which originated in macroeconomic and financial imbalances.
It is important to intervene upstream in the process well before retrenchments take place. MAS  is working with financial institutions to identify early on jobs that might be at risk in the future. We then work with these financial institutions to proactively up-skill these workers through professional conversion programmes. These are all early efforts still and will take time to bear fruit. On the positive side of the jobs equation, we continue to see good demand for professionals in several areas of finance. These include compliance, risk management, insurance underwriting, and asset and wealth 9 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  management. Within the technology area, there continues to be strong demand for expertise in cyber security, data analytics, network architecture, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. MAS is working closely with the industry to build the relevant skills and competencies at all levels within our financial institutions. To ensure graduates are job-ready, we are partnering with institutes of higher learning to develop curriculum in new growth areas, for example risk analytics for insurance. To support mid-career finance professionals deepen their specialist skills so that they stay relevant, we have launched the SkillsFuture Study Awards, with a total of 170 awards to be granted this year. To equip capable Singaporeans to take on regional or global leadership roles in financial institutions, we are co-funding leadership programmes at NUS and SMU focusing on international exposure, Asian market insights, and professional networks.

Needless to say, there is greater acceptance for these measures to be part of the toolkit of the authorities and central banks are continually monitoring the markets and ready to take actions in cooperation with regulators and market participants. 8. To respond to the surge in inflows, the BOT has chosen the route of capital account liberalization as the most natural counter to encourage the outward flows of capital. We believe that this measure will help lessen the pressure from the rotating fund flows as well as provide the opportunity for Thai enterprises to secure new markets in preparation for the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The roadmap includes relaxation in outward direct investment and portfolio investment. In addition, the BOT has allowed Thai corporates to issue foreign exchange denominated bonds domestically. There is no reason why a reputable Thai corporate should have to go oversea to secure funding if they are well known domestic household names that can mobilize funds at a more attractive rate domestically. Hence, the rotation in fund flow will be taken place at both ends; thereby balancing Out-In with In–Out flows. 9. Against the backdrop of a rotating world, the financial industry is confronted with tighter regulation. Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 the world has been thrown in a global recession for half a decade.
All this will make the next meeting of the MPC interesting, particularly since the February meeting will include our quarterly review of the two year MPC Inflation Forecast, in which we will try to calibrate the effects of the various changes I have mentioned. Proposed Revisions to the Basel Accord Compared to the last US recession in the early 1990s, a source of strength to the global financial system as the US economy slows is the much stronger capital position of most major international banks. The 1988 Basel Accord and its market risk amendment were intended both to set a floor to the capitalisation of the world's major banks, and to smooth out competitive inequalities between banks from different countries. Bank capital ratios have increased significantly in the last decade. Between 1988 and the end of the 1990s, the ratio of capital to risk-adjusted assets of major banks in the G-10 rose on average by around 3 percentage points. Of course, introduction of the Accord was not the only factor involved but studies agree it played a significant role in rising bank capital. However, by the second half of the 1990s, it became apparent that the Accord required a radical overhaul to take account of changes in the nature of banking business and risk management since 1988.

The way forward Structural changes and our experience over the last ten years will thus be of significance for monetary policy going forward. But what does this mean in more concrete terms? 12 See Financial Stability Report 2017:2, Sveriges Riksbank. 10 [13]  The main direction is determined by international developments To begin with, it is important to bear in mind that the Swedish economy is very dependent on developments abroad. Just as before, the main direction of the Swedish economy will follow international developments. I have already discussed how significant the global level of interest rates is for interest rates in Sweden and hence for monetary policy. In addition, the economic outlook and inflation prospects will, to a large extent, be influenced by what happens abroad, especially in the rest of Europe. One special circumstance is that economic activity and normalisation of economic policy will be in a different phase in the euro area than in the United States in the coming period. This is not so strange given developments over the last ten years. But as Swedish economic activity has been stronger than in the euro area, normalisation here at home looks as though it might start earlier than in the euro area, according to our forecast. In other words, we will probably be after the US central bank but slightly before the ECB. This is a special situation that can affect the impulses from abroad as regards economic activity and inflationary pressures. Inflation can rise in different ways.
Financial institutions which book prescribed OTC derivatives in Singapore are required to report such trades to a trade repository licensed by MAS. The reporting framework will be up and running next month, starting with interest rate and credit derivatives. The degree of standardisation of contracts in these asset classes is higher, so starting with these contracts will provide for a smoother phase-in. We have received feedback from the industry on operational difficulties in obtaining customer consent in order to report counterparty information to trade repositories. We are looking to amending legislation to address this issue. Ending too-big-to-fail The high-profile, public rescue of many large, systemically important financial institutions in the last crisis has galvanised a powerful resolve to end the “too-big-to-fail” problem. But this has proven to be one of the most challenging tasks facing global regulators. To be sure, the FSB and Basel Committee have made good progress on several fronts. •  First, they have identified a list of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). •  Second, they have set out additional loss absorbency requirements for G-SIBs to reduce the probability of these institutions failing. •  Third, there is ongoing work on a resolution framework to minimise the cross-border negative externalities that can be created by their failure. At the same time, major jurisdictions are embarking on plans to reform banking structures in a bid to end “too-big-to-fail”.

But the fundamental solution does not lie in diluting regulatory requirements. Policymakers should also focus on ways to develop sustainable alternative sources of long-term finance. At the same time, we must recognise that the immediate constraint on infrastructure development in Asia is not financing per se but the supply of bankable projects with an acceptable risk-return profile to attract banks or investors. We need integrated solutions that involve risk-sharing arrangements and bring together bank and non-bank capital. In Singapore, we are working in partnership with a diverse group of stakeholders, to help build such an ecosystem to support long-term financing and unlock the supply of bankable projects. •  Multilateral agencies and well-rated public sector entities could provide guarantees or credit wraps that would allow banks to reduce their risk exposures to such longterm projects, thereby encouraging them to originate such loans. •  Bank loans could be structured in ways that facilitate their seamless migration from banks to capital markets. •  Institutional investors such as pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds could invest in project bonds, infrastructure debt funds, and securitised project loans, taking the risks off banks’ balance sheets. Conclusion Let me conclude. We have made reasonable progress in making global finance safer. The regulatory reforms since the crisis have helped to strengthen the resilience of the financial system. But the work is far from complete. We must not forget that regulation must be complemented by rigorous supervision and sound risk management.
3  Individual Capital Adequacy Standards 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  4  Of course, there is important work to finish off in Basel, and constant evolution will be necessary as firms and financial markets themselves evolve. No regime is or ever will be perfect, but I think the one we are settling on is a massive improvement on the old one. Long live the revolution! But standards can’t just stand there. To bear down on risks to financial stability, they have to be implemented. Here there is still a lot of work to do, particularly on the banking side. Banks have already made big strides in building up their levels of going concern capital, and we are close to finalising the Basel III global standard. In some other areas, implementation is only very recent. For example, with respect to accountability, we now have a robust but proportionate framework to prevent the ‘recycling’ of individuals with poor conduct records across PRA-regulated firms. We are also making sure that buy-outs of variable remuneration do not allow bank employees to avoid the proper consequences of their actions. All that helps make sure that what was originally intended is efficiently and coherently implemented. Implementation will often pass the public by. That’s OK – so long as households and businesses get a resilient and reliable service from the financial system. Ring-fencing, however, will not go unnoticed.

20/10/2020  The Federal Reserve’s Corporate Credit Facilities: Why, How, and For Whom - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK  SPEECH  The Federal Reserve’s Corporate Credit Facilities: Why, How, and For Whom October 20, 2020 Daleep Singh, Executive Vice President Remarks at The U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness (delivered via videoconference) As prepared for delivery  Thank you, Tom, for the invitation to join this event. As all of you know, in March the Federal Reserve—with backing from the U.S. Treasury—created a set of facilities to purchase corporate credit for the first time in its history. Many observers have credited the facilities with repairing market functioning in the corporate bond market and restoring the ability of many businesses to finance themselves through the pandemic. But my focus today is not the corporate bond market, credit spreads, or Wall Street. Rather, I’d like to connect the dots by explaining why these facilities were necessary to support jobs and the economic recovery on Main Street, and why transparency, access, and accountability were so critical to their implementation. Before I review the initial success of these programs, I want to acknowledge the painful realities that many firms, employees, and households continue to face. For millions of Americans, it’s a long road back to normal. I should also make it clear that these remarks are my personal views and not necessarily those of the New York Fed or the Federal Reserve System.1 The Shock to U.S.
For example, physical risks could negatively affect consumption demand if there is an adverse climate event, while the transition could positively induce investment in climate adaptation technologies, thereby affecting aggregate supply. The NGFS is seeking to better understand how climate change can potentially affect the transmission of monetary policy. Climate change could put pressure on banks' balance sheets due to higher credit risk or an abrupt repricing of assets, and ultimately constrain central banks' ability to influence credit conditions in the economy. We need to assess how climate change may affect the neutral rate of interest. A decline in productive capacity could pull the neutral rate down, while large investment outlays for greening the economy could push rates up. The influence of monetary policy on inflation expectations may also weaken, as physical and transition risks intensify and raise underlying price pressures. The climate scenarios developed by the NGFS has allowed more robust assessments of financial stability. Given uncertainty around the severity and frequency of climate-related shocks, we need to augment traditional analysis with climate scenarios. More than 30 central banks have used or referenced the NGFS climate scenarios. The IMF has also begun to use them to assess the impact of climate change on banking sector stability risks under the Financial Sector Assessment Programme. 2/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  The NGFS aims to make three enhancements in the next iteration of its climate scenarios.

We will be hearing from leading voices in the field on: Macroeconomics of Climate Change Blended Finance Transition Planning Nature-Related Risks Let me briefly share what the NGFS is doing in each of these areas, to set the backdrop for today's Workshop. Macroeconomics of climate change Both the physical and transition dimensions of climate change will significantly impact output, inflation, labour markets, and the long-term growth potential of economies. 1/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  The NGFS is seeking to develop the tools necessary for central banks and regulators to make sense of how climate change will affect the macroeconomy and financial system. This includes work on: identifying relevant climate-related data; developing analytical frameworks and models; understanding the implications for monetary policy; and designing climate scenarios for stress testing. The NGFS has brought together an expert network of statisticians and data scientists on climate-related data. They will help member central banks and supervisors build up capacity on climaterelated data such as adverse climate events, carbon emissions, energy intensity, and so on. This will include building climate data directories and setting up green finance data hubs in central banks. The NGFS is developing theoretical frameworks and quantitative models to evaluate the impact of climate change on the macroeconomy. Policymakers need to better understand the channels by which physical risks and transition efforts can affect the economy.
Since the recent financial crisis, central banks worldwide have been engaged in a broad rethinking of how to better fulfill their mandates. Let me close with a final thought. The largest problems that countries create for others often emanate from getting policy wrong domestically. Economic recession or financial instability at home is often quickly exported abroad. Equally important, growth and stability abroad makes all our jobs at home easier. This illustrates the externalities in the work we do, with more effective fulfillment of our domestic mandates helping to bring us collectively to a better place. Thank you for your kind attention. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Mr. George discusses the problems in Asia and considers the risks they pose to the global economy Speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mr. E.A.J. George, at the British-American Chamber of Commerce Lunch in London on 22/1/98. The role of the Chamber is to promote Anglo-American trade and investment, and you’re doing a pretty good job. Two way trade in goods and services is running at around $ billion in each direction, and has grown at an annual average rate of about 8% over the past five years. Over the same period the US has accounted for just over half of all inward direct investment into this country and close to a third of all UK outward direct investment. These examples suggest that our commercial relationships are in good shape. Economic developments in our two countries have provided a favourable backdrop to British-American commercial relationships. In the US Goldilocks continues to tiptoe through the tulips. Total output has been growing for seven years - at an average annual rate of around 2¼%. Unemployment has fallen from a peak of 7.4% to 4.7%; and consumer price inflation has averaged 3%. In this country output has been growing for the best part of six years - at an average annual rate of close to 3%. Unemployment on a comparable basis has fallen from a peak of 10.7% to below 7% and underlying consumer price inflation has averaged around 2¾%. If that’s not Goldilocks exactly, it is surely her younger sister!
These measures are oriented toward promoting the activity, so that you will not wait for the client to ask for the government papers but search and find this client yourself. And the very first step you should make in this direction is: abandon the traditional pension fund security portfolio classification as “hold to maturity”. In other words, this implies the necessity for more flexibility, more diversification and for the existence of efficient risk management structures. A constant concern, which I want to pay particular attention and get your highest interest on it, is the professional development of human skills. I am not making any prejudice about the human resources that are currently working at the banking system, but I would like to point out that the mobilization of capable human resources, devoted to and shaped professionally is vital for the accomplishment of success. To be more competitive and bring new developments, we have to constantly upgrade the skills of each employee at all levels. It is true that the majority of the banks of our banking system represent international well experienced banking groups. However, I would like to emphasize that there is still room for more expertise and qualified human resources, so that the best practices of the international markets are infiltrated in our banking system. In addition, within the framework of this association, I would advocate that the Dealers Association must very soon come up with a Code of Conduct, agreed by all its members.

Ardian Fullani: The development of the financial market and money market in Albania Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the General Assembly of the Dealers Association, Tirana, 25 October 2007. *  *  *  Mr. Chairman Distinguished Guests, It is a great pleasure to be here amongst old and new friends and colleagues. I have dearly welcomed the reorganization and reactivation of the Albanian Association of Dealers, and the attempts made by its new board to affiliate ACI-Financial Market Association. I am confident that this reactivation will promote, above all, the market development, education and professional training of new members. I deem that the meetings of the Dealers Association is a good opportunity to share with you some thoughts and concerns regarding the development of the Albanian financial market in general and the money market in particular. I would like to emphasize that the interbank money market is the starting point to the transmission mechanism, driven by base interest rate change. Currently it is the most important channel of transmitting monetary policy decisions to the economy. I have to remind you that where you realize the profit, the Bank of Albania implements the monetary policy, whose efficiency depends directly on your capability to maximize profit in this market. This policy is based on the assumption that market participants are rational and their primary purpose is profit maximization under the conditions of a competitive environment.