samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
3  See for example this comment which appeared in the July 2005 edition of The Economist: “ […] The pursuit of price stability is a means to an end (to achieve maximum sustainable growth), not an end in itself. While the ECB's prime task is price stability, it is also legally charged with supporting growth. Last year it could have cut interest rates to offset the impact of the rising euro; today it should stand ready to ease monetary policy to cushion the impact of structural reform and fiscal discipline.”  4  See, for example, O. Blanchard e F. Giavazzi (2005), “Credibility does not require dogmatism - only clarity of purpose”, at www.voxru.org. 5  S. Cecchetti, H. Genberg and S. Wadhwani (2002), “Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework,” NBER Working Paper No. 8970, June, and N. Roubini (2006), “Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles”, International Finance 9, No 1. 2  BIS Review 66/2009  harder to interpret financial asset prices and to derive from them indicators regarding the risks of instability. And it is even more difficult to adjust the course of interest rates on the basis of these indicators. For this reason, the proposition of leaning against the wind remains an abstract concept for now. It would be important to develop economic models which give a more precise idea of the quantitative dimension of these phenomena, in particular of the correlation between monetary policy variables and financial asset prices.

They thus implemented economic policies aimed at returning economic activity to levels consistent with growth potential prior to the crisis. 11 This resulted in the Great Inflation of the second half of the 1970s, the correction of which required drastic policies which led to the global recession of 1981-82. The experience of the past decade should lead to reflection with regard to the motives which led certain societies, such as the United States, to overestimate their income growth potential. One must ask in particular what are the factors which in the past 20 years resulted in the progressive misalignment between potential economic growth and the target considered to be sustainable, but which clearly was not. It was not a drastic shock as experienced in the 1970s, but a more complex phenomenon, which operated gradually. One theory, which was suggested a few years ago, is that the growth sustained by emerging economies tends to suppress the potential of advanced economies. This theory was rejected, perhaps too hastily, because it is not in line with the neoclassical theory of international trade, based on comparative advantages, which holds that when a country grows at an elevated rate, it benefits not only the country in question but also others. Higher disposable income makes it possible to increase imports from other countries, thus fostering production and growth in those countries too. The theory of mutual benefit is based on certain specific assumptions, which are not always reflected in reality.
Two points are worth mentioning at this stage: - First, due to the scepticism I already mentioned and for credibility reasons, it would have been damaging for the euro not to build on the credibility of the most efficient and successful participating national central banks, that had previously chosen 2% as the ceiling for their definition of price stability; - second, this criticism has abated recently and it is interesting to note that the definition of price stability has converged towards a level close to, if not below, 2%: in December 2003, Gordon Brown announced a new inflation target for the Bank of England, based on the HICP, and set at a level of 2% for the 12-month increase; in the US, Ben Bernanke, recently appointed to take over A. Greenspan at the end of the month, advocated for a quantitative definition of the FED’s price objective comprised between 1 and 2% over the medium-term. 2.2. The Eurosystem’s monetary policy is “medium-term” oriented. What exactly are the implications of the medium-term orientation of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy strategy? The first is that the single monetary policy does not have a fixed horizon, defined once and for all ex ante, but aims, as far as possible, to take account of the “long and variable lags of monetary policy” dear to Milton Friedman.

Ardian Fullani: Strengthening the capacities of the Bank of Albania Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the Closing Ceremony of the IPA-funded Twinning Project on strengthening the capacities of the Bank of Albania, Tirana, 16 July 2012. *  *  *  Dear guests, Central banks, since their inception, have been vested with a “veil of mystery”. This relates to their exclusive right to issue money, set a loan interest rate and control liquidity in the market. Precisely, this important role of central banks and the recent global developments put these institutions on the spotlight. Responding to these developments, central banks worldwide, in perfect coordination with one another and in addition to traditional instruments, took extraordinary measures that had never been employed before. Through those measures, they intended to provide sufficient liquidity in the market, with a final goal, which has remained unchanged since ancient times, to restore public confidence in financial institutions. The Emperor Tiberius, dating to A.D. 33, had to inject one million gold pieces of public money into the financial system to keep it from collapsing. Today, cooperation and coordination among central banks have become an integral part of institutional management. Technological developments and the globalisation process have aroused the need for coordination among decision-making institutions all over the world.
Where they exist, that’s  2017-19 Average  consistent with the current pattern of forward prices,  350 300 250  as you can see from both Chart 1, for wholesale  200  gas, and Chart 12 for shipping costs. (For what it’s  150  worth, the spot price of shipping containers, plotted  100  as the red line in Chart 10, has actually declined in  50  recent weeks, down nearly 30% from its peak in mid-September.) It’s therefore quite possible that, in a couple of years, the contribution of some of these items to UK inflation will be not only smaller but negative. Sources: Baltic Exchange and Bank calculations. Panamax is a sub-index covering mid-sized vessels travelling on 5 of the 23 shipping routes of the full index. It co-moves closely with the overall Baltic Exchange Dry Index. Having said all that, there’s no doubt that the path of these global goods prices is highly uncertain. Even if it’s still the right judgement that recent inflation rates are “transitory”, in the sense I defined earlier, that doesn’t mean our central forecasts are an inevitability. In the last Monetary Policy Report the MPC produced two forecasts for inflation, one in which gas prices followed the full path priced into financial markets, and therefore fell steeply throughout the next three years, another in which they stabilised at a relatively high level.

7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  7  In the case of energy markets there are probably specific factors to blame. A prolonged period of cold weather last winter had reduced inventories of gas in Europe. Interruptions to the supply of renewables further increased the demand for gas, as did efforts to shift away from coal in Asia. And there have been supply problems too in Norway and Russia. More generally, there are several possible reasons why these trends have continued, despite the worldwide easing of Covid restrictions. The substantial fiscal easing in the United States gave a renewed and significant impetus to spending on consumer durables, both in that country and therefore the world as a whole. In some cases – notably cars – supply problems meant this demand couldn’t be met. But US spending on other durables nonetheless rose significantly further between the first and second quarters of this year, as fiscal transfers started to come through, and in 2021Q2 was almost 30% higher than immediately before the pandemic (Charts 8 and 9). Chart 8. US accounts for much of the growth in global demand for durable goods Percentage points  US  Chart 9. Large increase in durables consumption in the US, now partly easing back  24 Consumer durables excl.
A VAR model is a system of equations, which can be used for instance to capture the average variation in macro data. 9 In  5  In academic research these models are usually called models of reduced form. 6  For a review of the results from the models and their forecasting performance see Adolfson et al (2007a). 7  DSGE stands for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models. 8  RAMSES stands for the Riksbank’s Aggregated Macro model for Studies of the Economy in Sweden. For a more detailed description see Adolfson et al (2007b). 9  VAR stands for vector autoregressive model. BIS Review 77/2008  3  a Bayesian VAR model some form of subjective information prior to estimation is used, for instance how high the long-term sustainable growth rate is. In general, the further ahead we look, the more importance we give to economic theory and the assumptions of long-term equilibrium in Ramses and the Bayesian VAR models. To gain an impression of the current situation in the Swedish economy we instead use different time series models and indicator models. These are used to make forecasts 1-2 quarters ahead. The forecasts are then used as starting values in the large macro models. Of course there are also substantial elements of assessments of what comprises a probable development for the economy throughout the entire process.

In any case, there are several key questions that need answers to properly identify NPOs and their activities in a country. These questions include: i)  What is an NPOs sector ? ii)  How many NPOs are in operation? iii)  What types are they (religious, cultural, educational, sports). iv)  What activities do they perform? v)  Are there registration requirements and record keeping requirements for NPOs? vi)  Are there reporting requirements? vii)  Are there mechanisms to verify funds are spent as advertised and planned? So it is fair to say that there are major challenges and practical issues that need careful consideration when the issue of money laundering and terrorist financing is discussed from the perspective of NPOs. The global concern Let me now briefly highlight some of the concerns that have emerged globally in the area of money laundering and terrorist financing. The goal of a large number of criminal acts is to generate a profit for the individual or group that carry out these acts. Money laundering is the processing of these criminal proceeds to disguise their illegal origin. This process is of critical importance, as it enables the criminal to enjoy these profits without jeopardizing their source. Illegal arms sales, smuggling and the activities of organized crime, including, for example, drug trafficking, human trafficking and prostitution rings, can generate huge amounts of cash. Embezzlement, bribery and computer fraud schemes can also produce large profits and create the incentive to “legitimize” the ill-gotten gains through money laundering.
Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview in Bild Interview with Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, in Bild, Germany, conducted by Mr Oliver Santen and published on 15 January 2011. *  *  *  Mr Trichet, in one word, how would you describe the state of the euro today? If you allow me two words: credible and stable. Will the euro crisis get worse this year? Let me be very clear: this is not a crisis of the euro. Rather, what we have is a crisis related to the public finances of a number of euro area countries. All governments have to put their finances in order, and above all those governments and countries which have lived well beyond their means in the past. How are the euro area countries ever to reduce the debt, now totalling € trillion? This year, the budget deficit in the euro area will be half as high as that in the United States or Japan. Virtually all advanced economies face acute fiscal problems. This is something that is often forgotten. That being said, this is no time for any complacency. Let me repeat: the ECB expects the governments in the euro area to make enormous efforts to bring down their debt. Some countries have to get their debt under control again. Can you understand that many Germans are afraid of inflation? The Germans are right to be fiercely against inflation. Inflation hurts in particular the poorest. Price stability is a precondition for growth.

We have delivered and we will continue to deliver. And all members of the Executive Board of the ECB, all colleagues of the Governing Council of the ECB can be very proud of that. Let me add: peace and friendship between the European nations are essential for the stability and prosperity of our continent. I have devoted my life to bring the friendship between France and Germany to the benefit of Europe as a whole. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Households and businesses will be able to make better-informed decisions if they have a clearer notion of future policy rates; the potential for reduced uncertainty could also lower the risk premium embedded in longer-term interest rates. The second new communications initiative – a more explicit consensus framework for monetary policy – is still a work-in-progress. Thus I can only talk about it in generalities and give you my personal views about what it should say and why it would be very helpful. In my view, a framework statement should help clarify what the dual mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability mean in terms of measurable economic outcomes. It should also convey the extent to which monetary policy can be expected to deliver particular long-run outcomes. And it should better enable the public to form expectations about how policy will react to economic disturbances that move employment and inflation away from levels consistent with the dual mandate. As I noted earlier, our goals of maximum employment and price stability usually are not in conflict; but when they are, a more explicit framework can provide a better idea of how the Committee will weigh the relevant costs and benefits that enter this more difficult decision-making process. I have strongly supported the publication of our policy projections, and I strongly support the adoption of a more explicit consensus framework statement. In my opinion, my current policy views and prescriptions continue to be appropriate in light of these new communications vehicles.

Given the concentration of growth and development in emerging economies, going forward, the extent of underinsurance is a concern. In many of these economies, efforts are being aggressively pursued to increase awareness of the importance of insurance protection in helping one manage risks, and to develop an effective insurance market to meet these needs. The insurance industry in Malaysia currently stands at crossroads of implementing important reforms being introduced by Bank Negara Malaysia both in the general and life insurance sectors. The objective of the reforms is to further enhance the competitiveness of the industry, ensure its continued resilience, and encourage greater innovation in solutions offered for households and businesses to better manage risks. To this end, two aspects of the reforms are significant. The first is the progressive strengthening of prudential standards that aim to improve underwriting and risk assessment capabilities within insurance companies, while substantially strengthening incentives for insurers to differentiate themselves in the market. The second is the structural changes that are being introduced to reduce market distortions and drive efficiency improvements. Beyond domestic borders, the Bank also continues to pursue further liberalisation in the cross border provision of insurance in certain sectors, such as the Marine, Aviation and Goods in International Transit (MAT) sector, both to enhance capacity and reduce costs for businesses. This is primarily being advanced under regional integration plans, focusing in particular on ASEAN.
Here I am specifically referring to those with financial markets that are small relative to the amount of international portfolio capital that can be mobilised by foreign investors, and those acting for them, but big enough to whet their appetite for profit. Arguably, the market discipline imposed on macro-economic policies of emerging markets may de facto be more stringent than those imposed on developed markets. Indeed, what is acknowledged by many as an unsustainable, large current account deficit has been sustained in the United States for some time now, no doubt for a lot longer than if one of equivalent size relative to GDP were run by an emerging market. To be sure, there is consensus on the need for greater macro-economic discipline, robust institutions and market structures, as a defence against monetary and financial instability. There has been much progress, for example, on improving corporate governance, and I do not wish to belittle the serious efforts made at this important micro level, through the promotion, and the interaction, of individual, regulatory and market disciplines. There is also much greater discipline in pursuing prudent macro-economic policies, to the extent of attracting criticisms of excessive conservatism, particularly in respect of the running of substantial current account surpluses and the accumulation of large foreign reserves. I am sure these independent efforts of individual jurisdictions, reflecting their different pre-occupations, arising from different domestic circumstances, will, in the fullness of time, ease their tasks in the maintenance of monetary and financial stability.

It is the reason I went into public policy. The Bank is not the only body seeking to engage the wider public when discussing economic issues. The Royal Society for the Arts (RSA) has recently proposed setting up Citizen Economics Councils and Reference Panels designed to engage the public in economic policy debates. 50  I strongly support initiatives  of this type. The Bank’s own recent initiatives are seeking to achieve many of the same objectives. (c) Education When it comes to improving education on economics and finance, the public’s views could scarcely be clearer. In surveys, around 80% of UK citizens say they think economics should form a part of the educational curriculum. 51  In the US, it is a remarkable 97%. 52  My own work in schools, and recent research  by the Bank, has confirmed encouragingly high levels of interest and enthusiasm among children and young adults in better understanding the economy. This is a wonderful endowment. If you look more closely at the statistics, it is easy to see why both adults and children feel so strongly. It is also easy to see why we might, unless we are careful, squander that endowment of public enthusiasm about understanding the economy. The risk lies, to some significant degree, in the current structure of the educational system. In many subjects that have an important bearing on everyday decision-making, the educational system ensures broad capture during the early years. The aim is to give almost everyone the everyday essentials of the subject.
Denis Beau: What will the bank of the 21st century look like? Introduction by Mr Denis Beau, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of France, at the Crypto Finance Forum "The future of France is within your reach”, Roundtable "What will the bank of the 21st century look like? ", 19 July 2021. * * * To launch our discussion on 21st century banking, I would like to make three observations and offer a prognosis. 1. The universal banking model, which is particularly strong in France, in the form of large integrated bancassurance groups that combine the functions of deposit-taking and credit distribution and offer a wide range of financial services, showed its resilience during the two major crises we have experienced since the beginning of the century. Not only did our banking sector show its resilience, but during the Covid-19 crisis it was also able to meet companies’ financing and cash flow needs, and to contribute very actively to the roll-out of support measures decided by the French government and the European Central Bank. 2. The dynamism of non-bank financial intermediaries (insurance companies, funds, etc.) since the 2008 financial crisis. This has resulted in the development of non-bank financing, which has grown at an annual average rate of 7.5% in the euro area. Since 2002, the share of bank loans in euro area debt has been halved and it represented only 37% of euro area debt in 2019.

This implies reviewing the scope and content of certain regulations to ensure that the regulatory framework is favourable to innovation and neutral with respect to technologies, but also guarantees an appropriate and homogeneous treatment of risks throughout the financial system according to the “same activity, same risk, same rules” principle. (e.g. non-bank financial players, technology service providers, issuers and managers of crypto asset trading platforms) Thank you for your attention. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
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Lars Nyberg: Some Swedish experiences with financial stability surveillance Speech by Mr Lars Nyberg, Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, at the Bank Indonesia, Jakarta, 10 December 2003. *  *  *  Introduction First of all I want to express my thanks to the Bank of Indonesia for inviting me to this conference. Financial stability - or the lack of it - is a very topical subject in the light of events in the past decades. Furthermore, financial stability issues seem to be strikingly similar between countries, whether they are big or small. It makes good sense, therefore, to have different central banks talk about their experiences. And, as always, the best experience comes from mistakes made. With this in mind, I shall tell you a little of how we in Sweden look at stability surveillance today. First, some background. Systemic stability came under serious threat during the Swedish banking crisis at the beginning of the 1990s. As was later the case in Indonesia, the risk of severe financial instability led to government intervention. A decision at very short notice was required of Sweden’s government and parliament in the autumn of 1992: Should they choose to support Swedish banks financially without really knowing how expensive the support might have to be, or should they risk a financial crisis with unforeseeable consequences for the Swedish economy? The decision that was taken was the only reasonable option - to rescue the Swedish banks.