samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the short term, however, these adjustments can lead to greater volatility in the real economy and financial markets as investment portfolios are adjusted to new conditions and spending plans are reviewed. I can responsibly say that our economy is well prepared to accommodate these changes in the international arena, emphasizing the contribution of our inflation targeting with floating exchange rate scheme, the strength of the fiscal accounts and the financial system as well as our sound external financing structure. All these elements allow us to be reasonably confident in dealing with the ups and downs of the external environment and mitigating its impact on the Chilean economy and the welfare of our population. In the first quarter of 2013, output increased 4.1 percent annually, 1.6 percentage points less than it did in late 2012. On the expenditure side, the slowdown of investment stood out. Part of this adjustment was expected, considering that a number of wide-ranging mining and energy projects are entering their final phase. There are also transitory elements relating to one-time imports of capital goods that are more volatile. Another portion of the adjustment has to do with our external scenario, where the world economy is expected to slow down, manufacturing industries are decelerating across the board and where, moreover, the copper price has fallen around 20 percent from the $ per pound it averaged in 2011. These factors have introduced greater caution in assessing new investments, so some of them have been postponed pending further clarity in the international scene.

In addition, efforts to enhance transparency have not progressed as well as I myself and many market participants had hoped. 8 There have of course been some positive developments, such as the development by BZW of Property Investment Certificates, the growing importance of data produced by the Investment Property Databank, and the development by RICS of new valuation standards in the revised Red Book. Some of the trade associations, such as the IPF and the Association of Property Bankers, have also developed well and have begun to play a very important role. I believe the Bank of England’s Property Forum, set up in 1993 to bring all sides of the industry together, has also made a positive contribution. But these developments cannot obscure the fact that, on the whole, this period has been one of disappointment. Property’s poor performance in the past few years has undoubtedly caused some to consider very carefully whether or not they wish to remain in property. The Present 9 Are we turning a corner? The commercial property market is important to the UK economy in many ways. Property and related activities such as construction make a significant contribution to GDP. The availability of property of the right standards at the right price is very important to UK competitiveness. This puts some onus on landlords to provide what is wanted. It is equally important that the planning authorities should continue to provide a consistent and flexible planning framework in which developers and landlords can operate and earn a satisfactory return.
Until recently, heated discussions have been held about this matter and various views have been put forward both on the implementation of a tight fiscal policy and setting the primary surplus as the target, as well as its level. Some people even suggested that a tight fiscal policy could hamper growth. For this reason, let me briefly remind you of the effects of tight fiscal policy and, within this context, of the primary surplus target of the economy. As it is known, in countries like Turkey with a high ratio of public debt to national income, which possessed lax fiscal discipline in the past, expectations towards the ability of debt roll-over are the main determinants of economic developments, especially the dynamics of inflation and growth. For this reason, the main target of our fiscal policies has been to reduce the ratio of public debt stock to national income gradually and to equip public finance with a sustainable structure. Lowering the ratio of public debt stock to national income depends on mathematically higher growth rates, lower real interest rates, the stable course of the national currency and the primary budget surplus due to the effect of foreign currency borrowing on the debt stock. Primary surplus is the only one of these variables, which can be controlled by authorities under the current economic conditions.

These conditions are shaped by developments in the economic program as well as the public debt stock, risk premium, expectations, foreign developments and the behavior of market players in the short-term; while the determining factors in the long-term can be listed as structural reforms and their effects on productivity, net external debt position of the country,  2  18  Alesina, A. ve Perotti, R. (1996), “Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects”, NBER Working Paper, No. 5730. BIS Review 36/2005  cyclical movements in the economy and economic fundamentals such as inflation and growth. To recap, the exchange rate level is not a cause, but an outcome in the floating exchange rate regime. In this framework, the Central Bank operates in the foreign exchange market in two ways. Firstly, it holds foreign exchange buying auctions in order to carry out reserve accumulation. The external debt payment schedule of the public sector and plans for the liquidation of Foreign Exchange Deposit Accounts with Credit Letters in the long-term also increase the importance of the level of the Bank’s foreign exchange reserves under the floating exchange rate regime. Therefore, the Bank holds foreign exchange buying auctions in order to increase the reserves at their disposal at times when the foreign exchange supply gradually increases above foreign exchange demand due to the rise in reverse currency substitution tendency and capital inflow.
For example, there is a duty today on imported children’s clothing and on shirts, suits, jackets and trousers for men and boys. As the world economy recovers, import price inflation will edge up. A rise in labour costs of more than 5 per cent will then only be consistent with the inflation target if the krone continues to appreciate. In the long run, wages must be compatible with the value added that is generated by workers, i.e. labour productivity. Over time, the increase in real wages is therefore determined by developments in labour productivity. In Norway, productivity growth has averaged 1½-2 per cent over the last 20 years. If this continues to be the case, an increase in nominal labour costs of around 4-4½ per cent in the long term will be consistent with the inflation target. There is an important interaction between monetary policy and fiscal policy. According to the guidelines for fiscal policy, petroleum revenues are to be phased in approximately in pace with the expected real return on the Government Petroleum Fund. This guideline implies that fiscal policy will contribute to stimulating aggregate demand in the Norwegian economy every year for many years ahead. The guideline also implies that the use of petroleum revenues will increase as long as the Petroleum Fund is expanding. Variations in oil prices are accompanied by considerable fluctuations in government petroleum revenues from one year to the next. It is important to prevent these fluctuations from spilling over to the mainland economy.

The current evaluation of our public pension system must focus on the incentives to work and the effects on the average retirement age. A fund-based system may be an appropriate approach and at the same time make pension savings transparent for each individual. This may in itself provide an incentive to increase working hours. Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 20/2002  11
Unsurprisingly, a fifth of all trades failed to settle on time. If the case for change was clear, so too was the common purpose shown by the public authorities. As Pen Kent, the Bank’s Executive Director in charge of CREST said at the time, “TAURUS gave the Bank the legitimacy to step in and get on with the job: it needed a market failure to get everyone pointed in the right direction.” The Bank of England, called upon privately to act by the Chairman of the Stock Exchange, had two main goals: first, to reduce the material risks to financial stability posed by such an extended and uncertain settlement process; and, second, to ensure the UK had an efficient and internationally competitive market infrastructure. There is no doubt that the second of these goals weighed particularly heavily with the Bank’s Governors of the day. Not everyone agreed that the Bank should become closely involved, worrying that it could be a costly and reputationally risky distraction from the post-ERM project of repositioning the Bank as an organisation capable of taking on independent responsibility for setting monetary policy for the country as a whole. But the majority view won out, bolstered by the active support of the UK Government, notably HM Treasury, which took responsibility for ensuring that the complex and extensive legislative changes required were delivered in a timely and effective way.

But it is less clear what the changes on the other side will be: how banks will respond to the new regulatory and economic environment. There is much soul searching in the industry about what the future looks like. The reform programme and returns in banking The most marked change in this new landscape is the much greater amounts of capital in banks and as a consequence the much reduced level of leverage. Headline levels of required capital have increased. And the risk associated with many types of assets and business activities has been fundamentally re-appraised. For the largest firms, the equity levels required will be around 7 times higher than before the crisis on a risk weighted asset basis. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Moreover, international standards will determine not just the leverage firms can carry on a risk weighted basis but also, when an international leverage ratio is agreed in 2019, the absolute amount of assets they can carry for any given level of capital. A number of major jurisdictions such as the US have implemented leverage ratio rules in advance of that; the FPC will shortly issue proposals to do so in the UK. Lower leverage will reduce the returns that banks’ shareholders make, relative to pre-crisis. But it also means that banks will be safer investments which should also reduce the returns that investors require.
The final decision on the design concept to be implemented was made on the basis of the revised concepts and the criteria laid down in the Competition Rules. In the Revision Phase each of the three teams has gone into depth of research and development, reaching a level of design for a new premises which would be suitable for the ECB and could be realistically constructed. I would like to thank them for their work and have great respect for what they have created. Each design proposal is unique in its own way. As we will, of course, only build one design, we, my colleagues from the Governing Council and myself, had then the difficult/challenging task to choose one of the revised design proposals. BIS Review 5/2005  1  We had then great pleasure to confirm the Jury’s proposal and to announce Coop Himmelb(l)au as the winning architect of the international urban planning and architectural design competition for the new ECB premises. I would like to ask now Mr. Papademos, as he was also the Chairperson of the international jury of the competition, to present the main elements of the Governing Council decision for the chosen design of Coop Himmelb(l)au.. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, The Governing Council’s decision on the winning design concluded the international urban planning and architectural design competition for the ECB’s new premises. This means that a major step towards building a new, permanent home for the ECB here in Frankfurt has been completed.

I am delighted that the Governing Council’s decision has been very well received; not only by representatives of the City of Frankfurt, but also by the local and international media. Let me conclude by stressing that the Governing Council was very pleased indeed with the way the competition ran, with the quality of the designs and with the outcome of the competition. Of course, more challenges and many further decisions lie ahead. The successful completion of the competition is, however, an important milestone on the way towards building a new home for our institution. I am convinced that the winning design chosen by the Governing Council will become not only a Frankfurt landmark, but also a symbol of a united Europe and its single currency, the euro. I would now like to invite Prof. Prix to present his design proposal. BIS Review 5/2005  3
After two years of market stress and decline in economic activities, we can now cautiously look forward to a return to growth. Looking back, the last two years have also been an important testing time for Thailand as the impact from the global financial crisis has been large and quite unprecedented. As it turns out, the economy has been able to weather the impact of the global crisis quite adequately. This is to say, while the decline in output was unavoidable, economic and financial stability was maintained, the banking sector remained resilient, and the economy was able to adjust to the impact of the turmoil in an orderly manner, with output growth now recovering. In my view, these things were of no accidents. Instead, they manifest a number of inherent qualities embedded in the Thai economic system that have contributed to the relative resilience of the economy. Such qualities include: first, a strong and resilient banking sector resulted from good risk management practices by financial institutions and careful supervision by financial regulators at home; second, a disciplined conduct of macroeconomic policy that emphasizes prudent fiscal and monetary frameworks with a clear focus on maintaining growth with price and financial stabilities; and third, the promotion of economic flexibility as a mechanism for the economy and the private sector to adjust to macroeconomic shocks. To me, these qualities are of no accidents.

CPI inflation remains subdued at a rate of 0.4 percent year on year in October, reflecting the sizable output gap and well-anchored inflation expectations. On the financial stability front, the banking sector remains resilient with healthy balance sheets and the lending capacity largely preserved. And notwithstanding the strong resurgence of capital flows, the risk of asset price bubble, either in equity or in housing, for now remains low given the slow growth of bank credit and the more subdued initial conditions. The situation on asset prices, however, warrants a close monitoring as credit conditions can change quickly given the ample domestic liquidity. In sum, the Thai economy is now in a process of recovery. The economy is poised to return to positive growth next year. At this time, however, the momentum of private sector demand is still not robust with the momentum largely mirroring the support from policy. Economic and financial stability, on the other hand, is intact with subdued inflation and a resilient banking sector. Therefore, given weak private sector demand, the Monetary Policy Committee is of the view that policy support remains needed as a firm recovery is yet to be established. It was in this context that the policy interest rate was kept unchanged at 1.25 percent in the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting in October. Next, let me share with you our assessment of the outlook for the economy and policy.
There is a danger associated with this conviction, if the widening gap between what is expected of central banks and what they can realistically deliver end up undermining central bank credibility. To maintain public trust in the central banks, it is important to clearly lay out what monetary policy can and cannot achieve. I would like to highlight three areas where monetary policy limits in Thailand are particularly binding at present. Understanding these limits would also help explain our monetary policy actions. 1. Single instrument, multiple objectives  The first limitation has to do with the fact that multiple objectives cannot be targeted using one instrument, namely, the policy interest rate. This is a key reason why most central banks in the world today typically focus on a single primary objective of price stability, which is crucial to a well-functioning market economy and is what monetary policy has most control over. There are of course other equally important policy objectives, in particular financial stability, as recent global crisis clearly illustrated. The “flexible inflation targeting” is precisely designed to allow the central bank to stabilize not only inflation but also to mitigate the risk of a build-up of financial imbalances. Endowing central banks with more policy tools to achieve this additional objective has gathered a lot of support in international policy forums. The demand for monetary policy does not stop there, however.

However, given their distortive effects and collateral damage it brings upon the economy, any introduction of this type of measures will have to be carefully designed to minimize unintended consequences, especially on productive long-term capital inflows that we highly value. As for the case of preventing financial imbalances, it is sometimes proposed that for policy rate to have sufficient traction in addressing risks to financial stability, the adjustments may need to be so large as to have a significant adverse impact on economic activity, a price too dear to pay. Thus, with an additional objective of managing credit growth and asset prices in order to avoid financial instability, one really needs another instrument that acts more directly on the source of the problem. That is what “macro-prudential policy” is supposed to achieve. 2. Imperfect foresight  The second limitation of monetary policy lies with the notion that all policymakers have limited capacity to measure economic performance very precisely even in real time, not to mention to forecast the future. Monetary policy is always conducted in an uncertain environment. Unforeseen macroeconomic shocks, imprecisely estimated effects of policy on macroeconomic variables, and noisy measurement render monetary policy design and implementation a challenging task. Our state of knowledge is also far from a perfect understanding of people’s decision making that determine the future evolution of the economy.
However, there are some signs that the economy has stabilized in recent months. Regional employment trends Now, let me turn specifically to employment trends in the region, the focus of our briefing today. In particular, we want to describe our region’s experience during the recession and recovery. Nationally, the Great Recession, which began in December 2007, has been the deepest economic downturn since World War II. At the jobs trough in February 2010 – about 7 months after the official end of the recession – the country had lost almost 6.5 percent of its jobs and the unemployment rate had more than doubled. Many people lost their jobs or saw their hours or income cut, and the duration of unemployment for jobless workers reached a historical high. For many families, this distress was compounded by losses of wealth from declining home prices and stock market losses. Since the jobs trough, unemployment has retreated by a percentage point and jobs growth has resumed, albeit at a slow pace. Today, we will review questions about jobs in our region such as: How severe was the downturn? Where are jobs returning? And, what factors affect the employment outlook? As in other parts of the country, employment in our region declined substantially during the recession. But, New York and New Jersey and Puerto Rico had very different experiences. Employment in much of New York State, including New York City, declined less severely than the nation. Both the state and city lost about 3.8 percent of their jobs.

I will close my presentation with a practitioner's conviction: yes, transformation and management of public services are indeed possible! (III) ** I. Our public finances have steadily deteriorated over time The "strange defeat": getting left behind in Europe Our public finances have been steadily deteriorating for over forty years. In 1980, our public debt amounted to only 20% of GDP. It currently represents almost 112%, a figure that has barely come down since the Covid shock, and by less than our European neighbours. This steady increase can be explained  Page 2 of 19 by the government expenditure ratio, which has risen from 46% in 1980 to 58% at present, systematically generating annual deficits. For these two key ratios, France is currently well above the average for the euro area excluding France (i.e. government expenditure ratio of 49%, public debt ratio of 86% in 2022). Page 3 of 19 France joined the euro area with a public debt ratio equal to that of Germany (59% in 2001); since then, Germany's debt has increased by 8 points, while France's has risen by 53 points. This sets France apart from most of its European neighbours, who all share the same social model, in which I am a firm believer. Let us take two comparisons: Germany and Sweden. Between 1995 (beginning of the OECD statistical series) and 2021, Germany reduced its government expenditure ratio from 55% to 51%, and Sweden from 63% to 49%.