samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
These trends show that the propensity to save and retain the funds in the banking system remains high. Household savings are growing dynamically, within the historical trends. However, the unique character of the crisis has implications on its structure. Given the unpredictability, the propensity for long-term savings is decreasing, while the share of these deposits in the total household deposits from April last year until now reduced by five percentage points. On the other hand, in the corporate sector, the growth rates are significantly above the historical average, with restraint from investment activity and growth of assets. The past crisis episodes were characterized by a reduction in corporate deposits, which shows that the corona-crisis prompts different behavior. The pandemic increases the propensity to hold liquidity and save, in conditions of pronounced and prolonged unpredictability. Besides the growth of savings in banks, in conditions of a pandemic, there is an increasing propensity of households to invest in real estate. Actually, in conditions of low interest rates, relatively stable disposable income, reduced possibilities and needs for consumption, change in the models of work, globally there is an increase in the demand for real estate and in the real estate prices. Unlike most economic indicators, which collapsed during the pandemic, real estate prices are increasing. In the EU countries, in the first half of this year, real estate prices registered an average growth of nearly 7%, compared with the growth of around 4% in the past few years.

The preferences of both consumers and investors are changing globally and the "appetite" for the so-called green technologies and business models is growing. Amid such fundamental, global structural changes, our competitiveness as an economy will also depend on the ability for rapid transition to infrastructure that will provide "green stamp" products. On the contrary, the possibility to be competitive in both the product markets and in the access to financing will be small, and the costs high. The financial support from the banking system can significantly accelerate this transition and help in increasing the competitiveness of the domestic economy. Probably faster than expected, the world found itself at crossroads when it should accelerate the structural changes, accelerate the transition to a digital and green economy, enable sustainable, post-pandemic global recovery. The role of the financial sector in this respect is great, since the capacity of the entire economy to deal with the new challenges will largely depend on its stability and readiness for financial support. Finally, on behalf of the National Bank, allow me to congratulate the Savings Day, and to send special congratulations to this year's plaque winners - recognitions for achieved special results in the performance of the work tasks. Thank you! 3/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
Beyond this, we will probably continue to raise rates, but we may do so in a more flexible and possibly less rapid manner - "jumbo" rate hikes will not become a new habit. Since July, we have been making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. A favourable condition to interrupt rate hikes would be clear signs of a turnaround in the core inflation trend, i.e. excluding energy and food. One word about the comparison with the US: on both sides of the Atlantic, inflation is too high. But it doesn't have the same nature: the energy component is higher in Europe; the demand one higher in the US, where the labour market is also tighter. Hence we don't need to raise rates at the same pace, nor to the same level. That said, signs of peaking inflation – headline and core – in the US last Thursday are good news for everyone, as the US has been ahead of the global inflation cycle, and the US monetary tightening has had strong spill overs on the rest of the world through the high level of the dollar. Central banks are thus playing their part in the fight against inflation, but let us not forget structural economic measures. "Beefing up" our productive capacity also has the potential to help reduce inflation in the longer term, in addition to increasing potential growth. This holds especially true when it comes to our ecological transformation, in order to decrease our dependency on fossil fuels.

This allowed for a significant carry-over: according to Commission's forecasts published last Friday, euro area economy should grow by 3.2 % in 2022 as a whole(ii), more than the forecast for the United States. As for 2023, while slowing down, growth could remain positive at 0.3 %, and it should rebound to 1.5 % in 2024. All economic forecasts are nevertheless surrounded with high uncertainty at present times, in light in particular of the latest of an unprecedented series of shocks. By the way, this is why we need to regulate strongly and quickly crypto assets internationally: the last episodes show us that we cannot allow for a second "crypto winter" to still add to uncertainty and financial instability. The Russian war in Ukraine is feeding a further surge in energy prices and other commodities, hence a negative shock on terms of trade. This geopolitical and economic environment weighs on the confidence of businesses and consumers. In particular, inflation has become the prime concern of our European citizens. The rise in consumer prices has amplified in recent months, reaching 10.7% in October – France displays the lowest rate in the euro area with 7.1 %, thanks in particular to its "tariff  1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  shield" which protects households from increases in energy prices.
According to the draft amendment of the Bank of Thailand Act which is to be considered by the Parliament in the near future, some such important features are: 1.  a Selection Committee, comprising some outstanding Thai senior statesmen, to nominate appropriate candidates for governorship. 2.  a definite term of office for governorship (4-5 years is the norm and this can be extended for another term). 3.  clauses which spell out clearly causes for removal of governor. 4.  a Court of Directors which comprises of the Governor and Deputy Governors and at least five other members to oversee/manage/entrust the overall affairs of the Bank of Thailand. Question remains whether Governor should be chairman and CEO as well. There are pros and cons on this issue. 5.  a Monetary Policy Board chaired by the Governor and consists of internal and external directors. External directors will be appointed by the Government. Responsibility and accountability of the board will be spelled out clearly. It is important to have qualified external directors to provide wider perspective and perhaps a counter balance views. Since the draft Amendment of the Bank of Thailand Act will take time to be enacted because of a long legal and parliamentary processes (we expect it to be enacted in the middle of next year), we have decided to go ahead with the establishment of a Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The MPC consists of seven members with the Governor chairing the committee.

Our physical presence gives us the opportunity to better engage with and learn from our communities. Our mission is to make the U.S. economy stronger and the financial system more stable for all segments of society, and supporting local economies is a key part of that. The New York Fed is proud to be an anchor institution of New York City, and we want the city-and all of its people-to thrive. I'd like to share a bit more about why having these discussions is so important for the future of this city and for us here at the New York Fed. And with that, I must give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee or anyone else in the Federal Reserve System. The City's Present and Future Native New Yorker John Jay Chapman once said, "The present in New York is so powerful that the past is lost." You can feel that powerful reality when you walk the streets today. Indeed, this city was once an epicenter of the pandemic: we were hit early, and we were hit hard. The virus spread rapidly, leading to widespread hospitalizations and a devastating death toll. During the initial months of the pandemic, one out of five jobs in the city disappeared. In the restaurant industry in particular, 70 percent of jobs were lost. Other industries, such as retail and even health care, experienced outsized losses as well.
In July 2004, upon an assessment that the booming economy may result in the buildup of certain financial imbalances, the Monetary Policy Committee made the monitoring of “factors contributing to financial imbalances" a permanent part of its assessment and policy formulation process. As part of this macro-financial risk surveillance, signs of financial imbalances in seven key areas are regularly monitored: the property market, the stock market, the banking sector, the non-financial corporate sector, household-sector balance sheet, government finance and public debt, and the external sector, with the goal of establishing an early warning system for potential threats to financial stability, especially if the underlying imbalances are related to monetary policy actions. On the regulatory side, fully aware of the implications of systemic risk, we have incorporated macroprudential elements into our regulatory framework well before the concept became popular in the wake of the global financial crisis. Although we did not use the term, some of the prudential measures that we have deployed in the past few years were in the spirit of macroprudential policy of enhancing the resilience of the financial system over the cycle and of restraining the buildup of systemic risks. For example, in 2003, when we observed rising high-end real estate prices along with strong mortgage lending, we imposed a ceiling on the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for residential property with the transaction price exceeding 10 million baht. Later in 2004, observing a significant credit card loan growth, we placed limits on credit card borrowing by instituting a minimum income requirement, among others.

Tarisa Watanagase: The road ahead for central banks – meeting new challenges to financial stability Luncheon talk by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand, Bangkok, 20 July 2010. *  *  *  Distinguished FCCT Members and Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, First of all, I would like to thank the FCCT Board for inviting me to deliver this luncheon talk as part of the Club’s newly established Speaker’s Lunch Series. To this, I am honored as well as delighted to be back. It was exactly two years ago when I was here for the Club’s dinner program in July 2008, and let me tell you that I very much enjoyed our Q&A session then. I certainly look forward to participating in such a lively exchange again this afternoon. The topic of my talk today is “The Road Ahead for Central Banks: Meeting New Challenges to Financial Stability,” in which I will share with you my views on the roles of central banks regarding the maintenance of financial stability, with particular reference to those at the Bank of Thailand during the past few years and going forward. This talk will be divided into three parts. The first part will be about the changing global view on financial stability policies as a result of the recent global financial crisis. The second part will be a summary of what the Bank of Thailand has done with regard to the maintenance of Thailand’s financial stability.
This reveals something we pointed out emphatically during 2008: that the origin of our high inflation was mainly foreign, but that it was the duty of monetary policy to control it from propagating excessively into other prices and expectations (Figure 4). Thanks to that determination we have been able to aggressively cut the MPR, without compromising our commitment to price stability. A less credible policy would be incapable of being as expansionary as it is today, because it would not pass through to the interest rate structure or to market rates. In the past, monetary expansion was limited by fears of financial and macroeconomic instability. With the strong fundamentals of today’s Chilean economy, such limitations don’t exist. Although nobody escaped the impact of the financial collapse of the end of last year on the real economy, the ability of each economy to bounce back will be largely determined by its own strengths. That is demonstrated both by recent projections by international organizations and private agencies and by the evidence discussed in this Report. Chile should be one of the first economies to reap the benefits of expansionary policies and take steps forward in a faster, sustained recovery. Therefore, as soon as in the second half of this year our economy should be back to trend growth rates.

This is the fruitful paradox of recent years: the coexistence of “domestically focused” policies that results in a “globally-cooperative” monetary environment. And for this purpose, monetary policy must be conducted in full independence. That is, independently of political powers, of course, and we regret to have to say it again. But also 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  independently of short-term pressures or any particular economic interests. So we take account of market indications, but we must not be market dependent; this includes not relying too exclusively for inflation expectations on market-based measures. We are data dependent and I say this in particular for the ECB: in our coming Governing Council meetings, we will assess actual economic data and we will act accordingly if and when needed. II. Financial stability issues and crises On financial stability issues, the Bretton Woods system has undergone numerous disruptions and crises since its inception, including its quasi break-up in 1971. And a decade after the GFC, we still have to define the future of our current international monetary system, or “non-system” as many describe it. Today we will discuss financial stability risks caused by the growth of cross-border flows and financial assets. Over the past few years, international capital flows have been too abundant in good times, – potentially fueling domestic bubbles and destabilising national financial systems – but also prone to “sudden stops” in bad times.
The Rt Hon Sir Edward George: Challenges confronting central banks Speech by The Rt Hon Sir Edward George, Governor of the Bank of England, at the Centre for Financial Studies Seminar, Frankfurt, 13 September 2001. *  *  *  I thought that what I might do this evening is to talk about the challenges confronting central banks - in the US, Japan, the eurozone and the UK in particular - and what can and what can't realistically be expected of them in the face of those challenges. But I'd like to begin by discussing what it is that we are all trying to do. Let me start with our statutory mandates. The Federal Reserve's marching orders are to "maintain long-run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long-run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates". The Bank of Japan Law prescribes that "currency and monetary control shall be aimed, through the pursuit of price stability, at contributing to the sound development of the national economy". The primary objective of the ESCB "shall be to maintain price stability"; but, without prejudice to that objective, the ESCB shall support the general economic policies in the Community, which, in turn are designed (inter alia) "to promote … sustainable and non-inflationary growth … and a high level of employment".

And the Bank of England is similarly mandated to pursue "price stability as defined by the (symmetrical) inflation target, and without prejudice to that objective to support the Government's economic policy, including its objectives for growth and employment". Now the exact words of these mandates differ - to varying degrees. What's more we all have our own procedures and processes - in terms of the composition of our decision-making bodies for example, or the form and frequency of our policy meetings, or of our arrangements for public accountability. And our approaches to fulfilling our mandates vary from one central bank to another - some of us, for example, have a more precise target, or tolerance range, for inflation, or some provide a more explicit role for monetary aggregates within the analytical framework and so on. And much is sometimes made of these various differences. One can in fact spend many happy hours debating the finer pros and cons of one formulation as against another, and that can be a productive thing to do in pointing up the issues, though I think in the end my own conclusion is that circumstances alter cases - there's no unique best buy. But I think that we need in any event to be careful that in pointing up the differences between us we don't exaggerate them. Because I have to say that in my experience - at a more fundamental level we are all trying to do the same thing.
We have thererfore today decided to continue our expansionary monetary policy, maintaining all of the measures we implemented on 12 March. Inflation forecast chart How has our inflation forecast been revised? The dashed red curve on the chart represents the new forecast. It covers the period from the second quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2012, and maps the future development of inflation on the assumption that the three-month Libor remains unchanged at 0.25% over the forecasting period. For purposes of comparison, the dash-dotted green curve shows the inflation forecast of the March monetary assessment, which was also based on a three-month Libor of 0.25%. The new forecast still shows negative inflation for 2009, but with a very slight adjustment upwards. This is explained by the recent upturn in prices of fossil fuels and of commodities in general. However, as an average for the year, inflation will remain negative, at an unchanged rate of -0.5%. In 2010, inflation is likely to return to slightly positive rates and could be a little above the figure forecast in March. This is due to the fact that although domestic inflation is falling it will still amount to around 1% at the end of the year while imported deflation recedes more rapidly. Finally, for 2011, the new forecast shows that inflation will accelerate a little at the end of the forecast horizon if the Libor remains at a level as low as that being aimed for at present.

Ravi Menon: Down but not out: resilience in a post-COVID world Keynote speech by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Singapore Maritime Lecture, Singapore, 2 September 2020. * * * Good afternoon to everyone tuning in from Asia, and good morning to the rest watching from across the globe. Let me thank the Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) for the opportunity to deliver this Singapore Maritime Lecture virtually. The global economy is facing its worst crisis since the Second World War. The IMF has forecast that the global economy will shrink by 4.9% this year. According to the W TO, global merchandise trade volumes contracted by an estimated 14% in the first half of 2020. And the recovery will not be spectacular – even in its more optimistic scenario, the W TO forecasts merchandise trade this year to be 13% below 2019 levels. With over 80% of international merchandise trade seaborne, the maritime industry has not been spared. Down But Not Out One of the great lessons of the COVID-19 crisis is the importance of resilience. In one of the most popular movie quotes of all time, the boxer Rocky Balboa says “It ain’t about how hard you hit, it is about how hard you can get hit, and keep moving forward.” Resilience is not just about being strong, it is not even about staying on your feet all the time.
Ladies and Gentlemen, There is little disagreement about the pertinence of capital flows for macroeconomic outlook and stability. Where my view may depart from that of some critics, is in regards to appropriate policy response, and what objectives the Bank of Thailand can and should pursue. The MPC’s core objective, as instituted by law and in agreement with the government, is to achieve maximum sustainable growth, in the context of stable prices and sound financial system. Under this mandate, capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations are not the targets in and of themselves, but enter the policy calculations through their effects on the overall macroeconomic outlook. The MPC’s recent decisions to keep the policy interest rate unchanged can be rationalized in this light. While all members of the MPC may recognize the risks posed by volatile capital flows, the majority believed that the overall macroeconomic conditions are consistent with the mandate, and no change in policy was warranted. Thus, the current policy framework is sufficiently flexible to allow the Bank of Thailand to address the issue of capital flows. By contrast, if policy interest rate were employed to target capital flows and exchange rate per se, the outcome would likely prove counter-productive in my view. Uncertainty about the effectiveness of such policy use aside, the central bank’s commitment to safeguard the overall macroeconomic stability may also be called into question by the public, with potentially serious consequences.

When the FOMC eventually determines that the time to begin reducing policy accommodation has come, the critical tool will be the ability to pay interest on reserves. As has been discussed on many occasions, paying interest on reserves will allow the FOMC to control the cost of short-term credit even with an enlarged Federal Reserve balance sheet. In addition, we continue to make considerable progress increasing our capacity to drain reserves if necessary. At this time, more than 500 depository institutions have registered for the term deposit facility. Those firms, in aggregate, hold nearly $ billion of the reserve balances that are currently in the financial system. We also have added 58 money market funds as counterparties for reverse repurchase agreements, in addition to the 20 primary dealers that are our regular counterparties. Those money funds currently hold more than $ trillion of assets, with a good portion of those assets in the type of short-term repurchase agreements that we would be offering. In short, we have already established considerable capacity to drain reserves with these two tools, and we will continue to advance them in productive directions. Lastly, the FOMC could also remove policy accommodation by halting the reinvestment of maturing assets or by selling securities that are held in the SOMA portfolio, as noted by Chairman Bernanke at last week’s press conference.