samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The number used from then on has been about 85, based on a similar approach by Benjamin (1982) and Olshansky et.al. (1990). And the evidence on a limit to increases in the human lifespan is mixed; see for example, Kannisto et.a.l. (1994) and Wilmoth and Horiuchi (1999). BIS Review 73/2004  3  upward shifts over time both in the forecasts of expected life and in the rate at which it was expected to increase.7 That there are large and unavoidable uncertainties in forecasting longevity is clear. The key unknowns are evolutions in lifestyle, diseases and the ability of medical science to combat them. No amount of complex demographic modelling can substitute for good judgements about those unknowns. The danger of relying on computer modelling is well illustrated by the World Health Organisation’s early estimates of the future spread of AIDS, which, at the time, was a significant unknown in forecasting life expectancy even in developed countries. AIDS was first recognised in 1981. The virus responsible for AIDS, which we now call HIV, was identified in 1984. To date, around 20 million people are thought to have died from the disease worldwide. The proportion of those who are infected with HIV who go on to develop AIDS is now thought to be close to 100%. But the spread of HIV, and hence AIDS, has been very uneven.

But there is also significant uncertainty about the average length of life of a generation as a whole collective risk. Longevity has changed markedly over time. Chart 2 shows female mortality in England and Wales in both 1902 and 2002. It shows the remarkable reduction in infant mortality during the twentieth century as well as the fall in mortality in middle age. Of particular relevance to decisions on pensions is the expectation of life conditional on reaching retirement age. That is directly relevant to the purchase of an annuity on retirement. Over the past century the normal retirement age in public service in this country has been constant at age 60. Chart 3 shows the distribution of deaths by age conditional on having reached the age of 60 in England and Wales in both 1902 and 2002. A woman who was 60 in 1902, and subject to the mortality rates of that year, would have expected to live for another 14½ years. By 2002 that expectation had increased to 23½ years. Individual risk - that we die either earlier or later than the average for our cohort - can be insured by taking out life insurance against early death or by purchasing an annuity to insure against a later  3  Among recent discussions of misperceptions of probability are Gigerenzer (2002) and Taleb (2001). 4  There is a large literature on uncertainty about earnings and productivity growth; see, for example, MaCurdy (1982), Abowd and Card (1989) and Meghir and Pistaferri (2004).
There is much concern today about the rise of extreme views and the coarsening of political discourse. But displaying your characteristic sangfroid, you have reminded us to be confident in ourselves and in the resilience of our democratic institutions. As you have said, “our free, democratic system based on the rule of law is so strong that nobody can wreck it, neither from within nor from without. Anybody who tries will fail.”6 I believe this is a message all of Europe needs to hear today. A message of strength, resolve and courage. A call to remember our better selves and not to allow self-doubt to drag us down. This is the message that rings loud from your career, Wolfgang. For you, in the spirit of Max Weber, politics has always been more than a “Beruf”, it has been a “Berufung”. Not just a profession, but a calling. Germany and Europe have been blessed by this calling. Thank you. 1 Interview with the Tageszeitung. 21 January 2012. 2 According to the latest Eurobarometer survey, June 2019. 3 Schäuble-Lamers Paper, 1 September 1994. 4 Interview with the Financial Times, 6 October 2017. 5 Interview with the Financial Times, 22 March 2019. 6 Interview with Bild am Sonntag, 3 October 2017. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

Is the euro at risk of losing its backing in Europe’s largest economy? There are different opinion polls! In early September Die Welt published the results of a survey in which two thirds of respondents in Germany called for “more common policies in Europe”. The citizens of Germany know how important European unification is for their country; the fall of the iron curtain would not have been possible without a united western Europe. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  In that case, how do you explain the growing mistrust? I believe there is a problem of communication. Contrary to how things are often portrayed, we do not have a crisis of the euro as a currency. The euro is a credible, stable currency. In spite of the global crisis, its external value today is significantly higher than when it began. For 13 years the ECB has provided for stable prices. And observers and markets are anticipating the same stable prices for the next ten years. This achievement in particular is not valued highly enough by some commentators in Germany, and I do not understand why that is. Of course, there are shortcomings in the financial sector, in fiscal policies, and as regards financial stability: the financial markets are too unstable, some euro area countries are uncompetitive, and reliable fiscal policy is lacking in several countries. However, none of these problems have to do with the currency. They are the responsibility of the governments of the euro area.
The term premium ahead is assumed to be approximately zero. Based on our analyses, we consider that 0.25 percent is a reasonable estimate of the expected annual real return on bonds over the next ten years. As the GPFG is also invested in other bond markets, even this modest expectation is slightly higher than the yield on inflation-linked bonds in the largest markets. The prospect of low returns on bond investments is undoubtedly one of the reasons for the renewed discussion of the fund’s equity allocation. However, whether low bond returns warrant a change in the size of the equity share of the benchmark index depends on the return that can be achieved on alternative investments – namely the expected return on equities. The relevant factor for the composition of the fund’s benchmark portfolio is the spread between the expected return on equities and the expected return on bonds. Chart: Realised real yields on equity and fixed income The excess return that can be achieved in equity markets is usually measured in terms of the socalled equity risk premium (ERP). This is defined as the spread between the return on equities and the return on short-term government securities. Historically, the realised ERP has been high.

Chart: Growth and returns  3/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  In the long term, growth in dividends and firms’ cash flows will reflect underlying economic growth. In our analyses, this is clearly evident in global data: internationally, growth in firms’ cash flows and equity returns are correlated with growth in the global economy. Global economic growth in the coming years is expected to be below its historical level. This “pessimism” is partly related to the driving forces behind the low level of the real interest rate. If we use more conservative estimates of future dividend growth as inputs in our models, our estimate of the ERP falls to below 4 percentage points. There is considerable uncertainty around this estimate, and Norges Bank’s projections are based on a more cautious estimate of 3 percentage points. Chart: Equity allocation and expected return The Ministry of Finance has requested the Bank to provide estimates of the expected return on the fund ahead. Expected bond returns are considerably lower than in 2006, while the expected excess return on equities relative to bonds is somewhat higher as expected term premiums are lower. With an equity allocation of 60 percent, our best estimate of average real return is about 2 percent per year over the next ten years. If the equity allocation is increased to 75 percent, the expected real return rises to about 2½ percent.
Let me also thank Ms Linda Zuze (the International Consultant on the project) and Mr Shebo Nalishebo (the Local Consultant) and IPSOS Zambia for successfully conducting the Survey. 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  The Bank of Zambia and its collaborating institutions mentioned earlier are greatly indebted to the respondents who participated in the Survey for completing the questionnaires. We thank you most sincerely for your cooperation. In particular, we are aware that the survey got into the way of your work as you completed the questionnaires. We are pleased to note that the response rate was 90%. This points to the fact that you share in our resolve to bridge the financial inclusion gender gap and engender economic development. Ladies and Gentlemen, having launched the commencement of the project for the development and implementation of a framework for collection of supply-side sex-disaggregated data almost a year ago, I am pleased that today we can mark a significant milestone towards achieving the objective of the project as we disseminate the results of the baseline survey. The survey results not only give us the situation analysis regarding the availability of supply-side sexdisaggregated data, but also provides a synopsis of the magnitude of the financial inclusion gender gap, which we must all work hard to bridge.

Ladies and gentlemen, these findings must be an important ingredient in the design and implementation of the framework for collecting and analyzing sex –disaggregated data. As I conclude, I wish to thank you all for attending this workshop and hope that you will use this opportunity to delve into the survey findings, the reasons behind the findings, and recommend appropriate response measures that will shape the framework to facilitate information based policies for bridging the financial inclusion gender gap. It is now my honor and privilege to officially open the workshop and I wish you fruitful deliberations. I thank you and God bless! 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
Good progress has been made and we expect the new competency framework can be rolled out within the next few months. 5. I would like to thank the TMA and its committees for their tireless efforts in joining hands with the HKMA and others in the “platform building” work. Measures that make Hong Kong more competitive as a wealth and asset management centre 6. It is not easy to come up with an exhaustive list of factors that affect Hong Kong’s competitiveness as a wealth and asset management centre in Asia. There are some factors such as air quality, law and order, cost of doing business, international school places, etc that have a major effect on individual firms’ decision to locate or expand operations in Hong Kong and not elsewhere, but these factors apply across the board and are not confined to the financial services sector. What I propose to do now is to highlight a couple of key “soft” infrastructure that is uniquely important to Hong Kong’s future development as the wealth and asset management hub in Asia: (a) as we all know, the existence of an inheritance tax or estate duty, even at low rates, is a material impediment to the development of wealth and asset management businesses. Back in 1998, the HKMA started to lobby the HKSAR Government to abolish the estate duty in Hong Kong in order to foster Hong Kong’s development as a wealth management centre.

Therefore, professional status is an implied social contract to provide a service over and above normal duties. In this regard, a professional is viewed as one who carries additional moral responsibility and is honest, objective, impartial and with high integrity. Mr Chairman, the importance of a professional civil service in Zambia cannot be overemphasised. If we are to succeed economically as well as socially, we need to demonstrate appropriate levels of professionalism. A professional is open to views of others and are objective and their decisions are made in the best interest of the country. As professional in Zambia we need to evaluate our performance and aim to constantly improve. We need to see ourselves as part of the solution rather than the problem. Further, it is important to realise that civil service is a key component of Government as it supports the formulation and implementation of government policies and service delivery to the public. A professional civil service also ensures that government objectives and goals are achieved in an effective and efficient manner thus assuring confidence to the public. In order to carry out their duties, professionals need to be guided by a code of conduct which stipulates the core values and responsibilities of the profession. The code of conduct is usually developed by the profession to guide and to prevent exploitative behaviour and to preserve the integrity of the profession. The code sets a framework for meeting standards and provides disciplinary guidelines for unprofessional behaviour.
Continued good economic activity and an  BIS Review 17/2007  5  increase in employment will lead to inflation rising in the coming years. But we are nevertheless assuming that the inflation upturn will be modest. This is due to continued favourable supply conditions in the economy. Finally, I have pointed out that our forecast, as always, is uncertain. This applies equally to our interest rate forecast. Thank you! A comparison of forecast errors CPI 2006 The Riksbank Svenska Handelsbanken SEB Economist Intelligence Unit NIER SBAB Swedbank M organ Stanley M errill Lynch Nordea Hagströmer & Qviberg Öhman JP M organ UBS ING Financial M arkets Confederation of Swedish Enterprise Skandiabanken  0.0  0.1  0.2  0.3  0.4  0.5  0.6  0.7  Note.

Commensurate with the diversity and complexity of takaful operational framework, products and services, the continuous upgrading of risk management practices, with improvements in governance standards and enhancements of information management systems will be critical. Under this environment, it is envisaged that takaful operators, individually or collectively, will play a bigger role in enhancing risk management practices, developing market conduct standards, fostering fair market practices and improving financial literacy among consumers. This will be even more important with the implementation of the risk-based regulatory regime, whereby the responsibility for the implementation of sound risk management and market conduct governance, as well as assessment of risks and management of the financial condition of a takaful operator, will rest increasingly with the Board of Directors and Senior Management of the takaful operators. Moving forward, a differentiated regulatory approach will increasingly be adopted, where companies that exhibit strong corporate governance and risk management practices will be given greater regulatory flexibility and may enjoy greater capital savings. Secondly, it is vital to have in place an efficient and cost-effective delivery channel for the takaful business, strategically aligned to fulfil the participants' reasonable expectation. BIS Review 84/2006  1  Bancatakaful strikes as an attractive value proposition that enables takaful operators to tap into banking institutions' large customer base and attract the existing clientele of the latter to have access to integrated financial service offerings in the most cost effective manner. Strategic alliance in the bancatakaful arrangement has indeed shown a significant improvement in the takaful contributions over the past few years.
This led to the increase in international reserves from 52 billion US dollars at the end of 2005 to almost 67 billion US dollars by the end of last year. In addition, the forward obligation rose from 3.8 billion US dollars in 2005 to 6.9 billion US dollars in 2006. These FX interventions and exchange rate movements do have implications for our own balance sheet. First, the appreciation resulted in the unrealized loss from FX valuation of the international asset we hold when marked-to-market in baht. Simply put, the value of our international reserves in baht terms has fallen purely due to the falling US dollar and other major currencies vis-à-vis the baht. Second, FX interventions lead to increased domestic liquidity. As a result, monetary sterilization is required to remove the resultant liquidity and safeguard price stability. This is a necessary and justified cost to central banks for preserving price stability, and safeguarding the economy against excessive exchange rate movements. Such losses are an unavoidable consequence of central banking operations under a managed floating exchange rate regime. As regional currencies have sharply strengthened over the past year, most central banks in the region will also be facing a similar challenge. The key point here is that, our foreign assets, measured in foreign currency terms, have not fallen. More importantly, the goal of a central bank is to maintain monetary and financial stability.

Jon Cunliffe: Market liquidity and market-based financing Speech by Sir Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability of the Bank of England, at the British Bankers Association International Banking Conference, London, 22 October 2015. *  *  *  According to Oscar Wilde, there is only one thing in life worse than being talked about and that is not being talked about. Wilde of course was not a banker. And although he retained his notoriety until well after his tragic and unjust end, even he probably never experienced the sustained and hostile public attention which bankers and the banking system worldwide have experienced over the past eight years. So it will probably come as a relief to those of you here at the BBA International Banking Conference that I do not today intend to talk – in the main – about banks and bankers. Rather, I want to talk about market not bank-based finance and about market liquidity. I hope you will not find that worse than being talked about. I will, however, make some important points at the outset about the reform of the regulation of the banking system. That is not just for any of you that would otherwise have withdrawal symptoms.
MONETARY POLICY REPORT PRESENTATION BEFORE THE FINANCE COMMISSION OF THE HONORABLE SENATE OF THE REPUBLIC  Mario Marcel Governor Central Bank of Chile 9 December 2020    The December 2020 Monetary Policy Report can be visited at http://www.bcentral.cl. 0  I. Introduction  Mr President of the Senate’s Finance Commission, Senator Jorge Pizarro, Senators members of this Commission; ladies and gentlemen, I am grateful for your invitation to present the vision of the Board of the Central Bank of Chile (CBC) on recent macroeconomic developments, their prospects, and implications for monetary policy. This vision is contained in detail in the December 2020 Monetary Policy Report, published this morning. It also provides the background for the Board’s decision at last Monday’s Monetary Policy Meeting. As has been seen since the start of this year, the local and international economic scenario continues to be shaped by the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic, the measures that have been adopted to control it, and how these have affected the mobility of people and the functioning of the economy. In our country, economic activity has recovered part of the steep drop it suffered between March and May of this year. This has been accompanied by a drop in the number of cases—which has resulted in fewer mobility constraints than in midyear—, individuals and businesses adjusting to a new form of operation because of the pandemic, and the boost provided by monetary and fiscal policy, along with other support measures for households.

Figure 3 shows a broad selection of secured and unsecured overnight money market rates; it is clear that increases in the target range for the federal funds rate have passed through fully and immediately to the other rates, as expected and intended. Moreover, I have been very encouraged by the relative stability and high degree of comovement among short-maturity money market rates. And second: the balance sheet. 9 The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet grew markedly earlier this decade as a result of large-scale asset purchase programs, which were undertaken to support the economic recovery by easing financial conditions to a greater extent than could be achieved solely through reducing the federal funds rate. For many years, the FOMC has indicated its intention that the Federal Reserve will, in the longer run, hold no more securities than necessary to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively, and that it will hold primarily Treasury securities. 10 Starting late last year, the Federal Reserve began a program to reduce its securities holdings by reinvesting principal maturities only to the extent that they exceed gradually increasing caps. 11 This gradual and predictable approach is intended to reduce the balance sheet’s size at an appropriate pace while supporting good market functioning and mitigating the risk of sharp or outsized asset price reactions. The charts in Figure 4 show the evolution of the Federal Reserve’s securities portfolio.
It was conducted by FinMark Trust of South Africa. BIS Review 99/2008  3  been undertaken, namely, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa at 5%, 1% and 8%, respectively. An important point to note for policymakers is the fact that the majority of those who had no access to financial services are the rural poor, with women more disadvantaged than men. Importantly, these are the very areas and categories of people for whom support has been prioritized in the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP) and under the Citizens Empowerment Act (2006). The Government, working with the private sector and other key stakeholders, thus already has platform from which to address these challenges. During the first half of 2007, the Supply Side Study was undertaken as a follow up to the FinScope™2005 demand side survey. The Study revealed opportunities as well as challenges in addressing access to financial services and financial sector development in general. First, macroeconomic policy and financial sector regulation were no longer viewed as a problem, following the downward trend in inflation to single digits in 2006, the consolidation of the Government’s fiscal position, strong economic growth. Second, the enabling environment to facilitate the expansion in access to credit, i.e. developments in the payment system and the greater sharing of information in the financial markets through credit bureaux is also not yet a binding constraint.

Frank Elderson: All the way to zero - guiding banks towards a carbon-neutral Europe Keynote speech by Mr Frank Elderson, Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board and Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the conference on “The Role of Banks in Greening our Economies” organized by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and Hrvatska narodna banka, Frankfurt am Main, 29 April 2021. * * * It is a great honour for me to be with you today to discuss the role of banks in greening the economy. And I am very happy to delve into the topic of climate change at an event co-organised by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) – an institution whose own work remarkably exemplifies what international cooperation can achieve in supporting the greening of the economy. Your commitment to meeting the goals set under the Paris Agreement is outstanding. It offers great inspiration to all of us in European institutions who are just as adamant about doing the same. As many of you know, climate change considerations feature prominently in the ECB’s ongoing monetary policy strategy review. But today I will focus on how they will be taken into account by ECB Banking Supervision. The challenge of climate change is daunting. This is certainly true for the consequences if climate change continues unabated, such as increased natural disasters and the loss of habitats and biodiversity. And it is also true for the transformation necessary to avoid these dire consequences.