samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
We highly welcome local and overseas entities to make use of Hong Kong’s platform to issue sukuk. 12. To play a lead-off role for this market, we took another important step recently by putting in place a legal framework for the Government to issue sukuk under the Government Bond Programme. We are very pleased to see that the relevant bill was passed by the Legislative Council a few weeks ago, paving the way for the launch of the inaugural Government sukuk. 4  Source: Institute for International Finance  5  Source: SWF Institute  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Inaugural HKSAR Government sukuk 13. The Government sukuk is intended to meet two important objectives. 14. First, it aims to demonstrate to the global financial markets that the legal, regulatory and taxation frameworks in Hong Kong can well accommodate sukuk issuance. Leveraging on the HKSAR Government’s triple-A credit rating, the expected low funding cost of Government sukuk will provide a useful benchmark for other potential sukuk issuers in Hong Kong. Hopefully, this will in turn encourage more sukuk issuers to participate in our market, providing impetus to the sustainable development of the sukuk market here. 15. Second, we hope to attract more international investors to our financial market. Given the shortage of high-quality sukuk in the global market, the strong credit rating of the HKSAR Government is well-positioned to fill the gap by providing high-quality sukuk to meet the strong demand from investors.

Even in the predominantly agricultural areas, the trend has been the same. Consequently, it has become a nearly impossible task to keep the rural youth occupied in agricultural activities. This has made it necessary for opening new employment avenues for such youth. An additional factor has been the natural limitation for growth of agriculture due both to the slow growth in demand for agricultural products and the supply constraints of land for further extensive cultivation practices. Hence, in the beginning, agriculture may be the growth promoter, but later, its growth would slow down due to the above limitations. The global experience has been that the average rate of growth in agriculture has been less than 2 percent per annum during the last 100 years. With higher and higher numbers being added to the job market every year, agriculture has, therefore, a limitation for providing jobs for all. Sri Lanka’s agriculture sector has made its utmost contribution to create wealth and employment in the past. Its current ability to do so has been a matter for debate. With employment in agriculture being seasonal and the concentration of a large farm-based work-force on a limited extent of cultivable land, underemployment has been the natural corollary in Sri Lanka. The new evidence shows that the under-employment in agriculture in Sri Lanka is not only the highest but also on the increase.
BIS Review 23/2009  Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank  9  Almost two ”different worlds”   Dramatic change in circumstances after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September    From a situation where the Swedish financial markets are functioning fairly well, to one where some sub-markets were on hold    From expectations of a fairly smooth downturn in economic activity, to much poorer prospects  Changed conditions for our policy Financial crisis not yet over  M onetary policy and financial stability  -the tasks are always closely linked, but… -under conditions such as a financial crisis the dividing lines have been erased  M easures to safeguard financial stability are  significant for monetary policy and vice versa  10  BIS Review 23/2009  Uncertainty and lower wealth could lead to reduced consumption and ”precautionary saving”… Per cent of disposable income 500  14  Net assets (left) Financial saving (right)  450  12  400  10  350  8  300  6  250  4  200  2  150  0  100  -2  50  -4 -6  0 80  82  84  86  88  90  92  94  96  98  00  02  04  06  08  Source: Statistics Sweden  The Riksbank’s measures  BIS Review 23/2009    Loans (against collateral) in SEK and USD    Change in collateral requirements    Special liquidity support    Commercial paper    Further measures may be necessary  11  Expansionary monetary policy around the world Per cent 8  8 Sweden USA United Kingdom Norway Euro area  7 6  7 6  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1 0  0 00  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  Source: Reuters EcoWin  Repo rate decision and forecast in brief Severe deterioration in economic activity Ö    Repo rate cut to 1 per cent Repo rate forecast adjusted downwards  Necessary to:    reduce the fall in production and employment and… attain the inflation target of 2 per cent  Recovery will begin in 2010  12  BIS Review 23/2009  Repo rate path a forecast – not a promise Per cent, quarterly average 7  7 90% 75% 50% Repo rate  6  6  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 -1  -1 04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  Note.

BIS Review 23/2009    Although there are factors that look worse than in the 1990s  International economic activity  Uncertainty over global financial crisis    There are many more that look better now…  17  So why will things go better this time?   Not a ” home-made” crisis    Surplus on current account    Sound public finances    Better conditions for both fiscal and monetary policy    Lower interest rates to start with    Updated regulations, focus on borrowing and capital  Comparison of recoveries after different recessions, GDP Sweden Level, index=100 final quarter before recession begins 115  115 2008 Q1 2000 Q3 1996 Q1 1990 Q2  110  110  105  105  100  100  95  95  90  90 -4  -2  0  2  Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts. Legends refer to quarter when recession begins.
Stefan Ingves: The housing market and household indebtedness from a central bank perspective Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, at SNS (Centre for Business and Policy Studies), Stockholm, 19 November 2015. *  *  *  Why are the housing market and household indebtedness important to the Riksbank? As you have no doubt noticed, the Swedish housing market and Swedish household indebtedness are being widely discussed. In my speech today, I intend to discuss this matter from a central bank perspective. Why is it so important for us at the Riksbank? In this context, it is important to remind ourselves of our role in the Swedish economy. Under the law, the Riksbank has two main tasks: price stability and financial stability. 1 My opinion is that the housing market and household indebtedness may have great significance for our chances of performing both of these tasks. And consequently, as I see it, it is self-evident that the Riksbank should be interested in these issues. In my speech today, I would particularly like to point out two important conditions for Sweden regarding monetary policy, price stability and financial stability. As regards monetary policy, we need to take account of monetary policy abroad. If monetary policy abroad becomes more expansionary and Swedish monetary policy is passive, the exchange rate will strengthen and inflation in Sweden will fall.

Although the effects are minor, a raised risk-weight floor for mortgages has the advantage that it can contribute to higher mortgage rates for households, and that banks are forced to retain more capital in order to cover their mortgage lending. Direct loan limitations for households reduce the risks – but only affect new borrowers One alternative is to focus on households and limit the amount they are able to borrow. Examples of such measures include debt-to-income limits, loan-to-value limits, an amortisation requirement and minimum levels for banks’ discretionary income calculations. 15  12  See Financial Stability Report 2015:1, pp. 5–6. BIS central bankers’ speeches  This affects the flow of credit, or new loans in other words. The effect on the stock of debt therefore takes time. It is possible to understand the effects of different types of loan-limiting measures by using a simple equation which describes the development of the stock of debt over time: 𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 = (1 − 𝛼𝛼) ∗ 𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡−1 + 𝐿𝐿𝑡𝑡 ,  where 𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 is the level of debt stock on date t, 𝛼𝛼 is the rate of amortisation in the loan stock and 𝐿𝐿𝑡𝑡 are new loans on date t. The development of the debt stock is therefore determined by the rate of amortisation on existing loans and by how many new loans are taken out. All types of loan limitation discussed so far concern new loans.
In response to the changing landscape following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the HKMA expanded its efforts to protect and educate consumers, and this change resulted in the creation in April 2010 of our Banking Conduct Department. I will focus first on our work to strengthen consumer protection before going on to saying something about our work on consumer education. HKMA & consumer protection In terms of consumer protection, first, the HKMA has introduced new requirements on banks and issued guidelines on the selling of investment products. These include (a) requiring audio-recording the customer risk profile assessment and sales process to provide audit trails for reviews by banks and the regulators; (b) implementing a pre-investment cooling-off period in the sale of unlisted structured products to less sophisticated customers (such as the elderly or first-time buyer); and (c) requiring banks to carry out continuous reviews of product risk and inform investors of any upward changes to the risk ratings of the products they have purchased. These requirements were in addition to existing measures introduced by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) on the supervision of securities companies’ selling activities. Second, the HKMA is active in monitoring banks’ compliance with these and other regulatory requirements through thematic on-site examinations. Banks are expected to have control processes and procedures in place to ensure adherence to the conduct regulations. In addition, to monitor compliance levels among banking staff, the HKMA conducts mystery shopping trips. Third, the HKMA has strengthened consumer protection by working with partners.

Among these initiatives, we are joining with the Consumer Council in their consumer awareness campaigns. Another very important initiative I’d like to highlight, is our work with the Securities and Futures Commission to establish an Investor Education Centre (IEC). The HKMA will supplement this with additional consumer education independent of the IEC, focusing on areas such as banking products and services, as well as other investment products that may not be covered by the IEC. “The role of the consumer” So, as well as good practice among financial institutions, financial authorities also have an important role to play in enhancing consumer protection and education. But focusing on just those two groups leaves out possibly the most important group of all – the consumers themselves, to whom I will devote my remaining remarks. One of the things on which the global financial crisis cast a cold light was the implicit cost to households – and indeed to society and financial markets – of low levels of financial literacy. Financial literacy is increasingly recognised as an important individual life skill that people need to thrive in a modern economy like Hong Kong. Without it, consumers can be at risk of mis-buying and bank employees are themselves at a higher risk of mis-selling. For example, one of the hallmarks of our financial sector in this city is the universal banking regime that allows banks to offer basic services as well as a wide range of financial products.
However, I would like to underline once more that economic recovery is expected to be gradual and slow as opposed to the rapid recovery in economic activity after the 1994 and 2001 crises experienced in Turkey and that a significant vacceleration in aggregate demand is not expected anytime soon. Persistent tightness in external financing conditions, the lagged and gradual recovery in our primary export markets and the large share of durables and capital goods exports, which are sensitive to foreign demand, indicate that recovery in the Turkish economy will be different from what we have experienced so far. Distinguished Members of the World Economic Society, Esteemed Guests, It is a widely accepted fact that in modern economics, decision-makers act rationally and their decisions form a dynamic system in the field of economy. While measuring the efficiency of policies, their response to such policies over time is examined within a dynamic framework. As we can see in the conference program, almost every single topic in the economic literature is addressed from a dynamic perspective. We are on the brink of starting a two-day conference during which we will be listening to pioneer studies covering a wide range of topics from game theory to the labor market, from education economics to the functioning of the real estate market. There is no doubt that this is an invaluable experience for economists to catch up with the global economic agenda and to follow recent developments.

There needs to be a robust revival in consumer demand in order for the increases in the capacity utilization rate to be sustainable over the medium term. Uncertainties regarding aggregate demand and lower capacity utilization continue to suppress fixed capital investments. The current trend in investment demand is far from signaling a robust economic recovery. Subsequent to the recent rate cuts and fiscal measures, we anticipate that domestic demand in Turkey might gain relative stability in the second quarter of 2009 and growth will post positive figures from the last quarter onwards. In other words, the recovery in the Turkish economy might start earlier than that of the global economy. Our expectation is underpinned by two main factors. The first of these is the sound and stable structure of our financial system. The restructuring plans along with regulatory and supervisory reforms, which were put into effect in the aftermath of the 2001 financial crisis at the cost of imposing a heavy burden on the public budget, reinforced the Turkish banking system’s resilience to shocks compared to the banking systems of other countries. Another factor that will facilitate a relatively faster recovery for the Turkish economy is the household indebtedness ratio, which is lower than those of many other emerging economies. Households have been affected relatively less by exchange rate shocks owing to the significantly low share of FX loans in consumer loans.
Moreover, it would transpire that the actual pace of oil extraction – and oil-revenue spending – increased much faster than the committee had recommended. In the first 25 years, Skånland’s prediction was right on the mark. All the oil revenues were spent. But in the past 15 years, petroleum revenues have risen at such a fast pace that a portion has been set aside. If we look at the period of oil revenues in its entirety, close to half of the oil-based revenues have been spent. 9 In 1994, the economists Bye, Cappelen, Eika, Gjelsvik and Øystein Olsen of Statistics Norway estimated that government petroleum revenue spending came to about 10 per cent of overall public expenditure at that time. Tax income from the petroleum sector and petroleum sales revenue – current petroleum revenues – were spent over the government budget. The economists at Statistics Norway expressed concern regarding Norway’s oil dependence. 10 These economists can now rest assured knowing that around 10 per cent of public expenditure is still financed by oil money, but with one important difference from 1994: The source of these revenues is now the return earned on the oil fund – not current petroleum revenues. We have thus succeeded in replacing oil revenues with a permanent flow of income. We can draw on a perpetual source rather than from a well that is being depleted. 7  In 1977 the Canadian economist John Hartwick described the principles for the management of a natural resource in order to produce permanent income.

Financial intermediaries are provided with sufficient incentives to improve their risk-management techniques. Therefore, the financial system is better able to absorb shocks without increasing the effects of such shocks on the economy. Broadly speaking, this seems correct to me. The financial system has coped with remarkable success and with few signs of instability with the various episodes of financial turmoil and shocks in recent years. Market-functioning difficulties were short-lived. The impact of these episodes on the real economies of industrialised countries was generally limited. However, we want to make sure that financial institutions and markets help to absorb and redistribute the shocks occurring in the real economy. We don't want them, in general, to be an additional source of shocks. In this regard, two specific questions come to the mind of policy makers. The first relates very simply to our ability to understand what is going on in the financial system when innovations permanently introduce additional layers of sophistication and complexity. As is often the case with  BIS Review 64/2006  3  financial innovations, evaluating the risk they entail requires the use of complex techniques that are not always sufficiently tried and tested 6 .The second issue, singled out by Rajan himself, is about incentives, an issue made especially important by the shift from depository intermediation to professional asset management. The system of incentives under which managers operate should be closely and permanently aligned with the interests of investors.
Based on analysis on the location of impairments within the four-digit postcodes analysed. 13. And we know there are gaps. Since this was our and the firms’ first exercise we deliberately chose not to capture all possible sources of risk. 14. But this is something that the Bank will be exploring further, and where we have invited external analysis and research to inform our views. We will be holding a conference later in the year to discuss.

Moreover, all windfalls from the high copper price have been saved in sovereign funds deposited abroad. BIS Review 39/2008  5  International changes in terms of trade (cumulated growth between 2003 and 2007, percent)  Venezuela Russia Chile Peru Norway Australia Colombia Mexico Argentina Canada South Africa New Zealand Thailand Brazil Poland United Kingdom China Malaysia Switzerland Turkey Israel Hungary Sweden United States Singapore South Korea Japan Philippines  -40  -20  0  20  40  60  80  100  Source: Institute of International Finance, International Monetary Fund. The downside of commodity price increases is inflation. The rise in the prices of specific goods leads to an increase in measured inflation. The effects of these external shocks on inflation will depend on a number of factors. First, on the weight each commodity has in total CPI. In general, in poorer countries commodities in general (foodstuff and energy in particular) have more weight, while in richer countries, services are more important. Also important is the level of price protection (tariffs, price bands and other mechanisms to isolate internal prices from international fluctuations), price controls or subsidies. In Chile, the shock to food prices has been further aggravated by weather problems.
In Turkey, the ratio of direct foreign capital stocks to the GDP had not changed since 1990 and still stood at 9 percent as of end-2003, while this ratio rose as high as 50 percent for the Czech Republic and Hungary and 30 percent for Argentina and Brazil during the same period. Graph 13: FDCI/GDP: Turkey and Other Emerging Markets (2003) 236.5  100 90 80 70 (%)  60 50 40 30 20 10 Hong Kong  Hungary  Czech Rep.  China  Argentina  Mexico  Brazil  Poland  Russia  Turkey  India  0  Source: UNCTAD, WIR 2004. When the conditions for foreign direct investment are analyzed from the perspective of international investors, two factors come to the forefront as prerequisites: The first one is related an investment environment with a healthy functioning legal system with legal security. The latter includes the attainment of sustainable macroeconomic balances and administrative stability in basic policies on international investments achieved irrespectively of changing governments. In other words, what is essential is the stability of the policies that are being implemented. Turkey’s experiences show that partial improvements that are achieved without meeting these two prerequisites will not help to attract direct foreign investments to the country. Furthermore, other problems that should be noted include the unpredictability of legal arrangements, the amount of time wasted on administrative regulations, as well as the lack of transparency and consistency.

In retrospect, my first two terms on the MPC were periods which now look like the small change of monetary policy – small changes in Bank Rate aimed at adjusting for relatively small anticipated deviations of inflation from target. As I suggested at the start, it may however also have been the period in which a large error was made in allowing the belief to become established that policymakers had solved the issue of economic instability. As Jean-Claude Trichet recently commented: “...remedial action has often been triggered as soon as the financial firestorm has threatened the stability of the economic system. But such action risks raising expectations that macroeconomic policy will always insure against tail risks, no matter how large.” 13 Even when policymakers have added robust macroprudential instruments to their armoury, it will be important to be clear that there will still be sources of macroeconomic instability. This may not be easy during any prolonged period without such a shock, unless policymakers are prepared to be a little less assiduous about fine tuning. More recently policy has certainly not felt like fine tuning. In this talk, I have tried to suggest some ways in which policy might be approached a little differently, but without moving away from the month-by-month decision-taking which has served the UK well. There is presently much uncertainty about the size of the output gap, partly as it is not easy to reconcile a large negative output gap with recent upward surprises on inflation.