If we include retirement due to disability, the average retirement age is only 60.9 The number of persons on benefits in the working age population has shown a marked rise. Up to the beginning of the 1990s, there were small differences between Norway and its neighbours. Over the past decade, however, the increase has been clearly strongest in Norway. There are two sides to the conclusion as to the question of Dutch disease. On the positive side, we have avoided dramatic changes in industry structure, and we use our resources fairly efficiently. We have managed to insulate the Norwegian economy from oil market fluctuations and gradually managed to keep macroeconomic developments on a fairly steady course. On the negative side, there are signs that labour supply over a life-cycle is falling faster in Norway than in other countries. This may indicate that, with our current income level, we give high priority to increasing our leisure time. However, it may also indicate that we do not, as individuals, pay the true economic costs of leisure time and early retirement. Pension rules, benefits and taxes contribute to this. Similarly, enterprises are perhaps being offered the wrong incentives. On balance, the picture is still fairly positive: so far, petroleum wealth has not led to developments in the mainland economy that are negative in relation to other Nordic countries. However, it must be stressed that it is too early to draw a conclusion; there will probably be a substantial increase in petroleum revenue spending ahead.

This indicates that the system to keep cash flows from the petroleum sector outside the Norwegian economy functions effectively in that the system has won credibility in financial markets. This is another positive result. Since summer 2004, there has nevertheless been a somewhat stronger correlation between the krone and the oil price. A number of factors may have played a role here: There have been expectations that oil prices will remain high for several years. And considerable petroleum revenues have been circulating in the Norwegian economy, partly as a result of government spending and partly due to the high level of petroleum sector investment. In the elaboration of economic policy in the national budgets, long-term considerations are always discussed when making decisions about the spending of petroleum revenues. Two considerations are of particular importance: The aim of equitable distribution across generations and an industry structure that will in future provide us with solid revenue sources other than petroleum activities. The fiscal rule for the smooth phasing-in of petroleum revenues, which is designed to safeguard such considerations,  3  Thorvaldur Gylfason, Natural Resources and Economic Growth: From Dependence to Diversification. Discussion paper No. 4804, CEPR  4  See for example Terry Lynn Karl, The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. University of California Press 1997. 5  See for example:J.M. Davis, R. Ossowski, J. Daniel and S. Barnett, Stabilization and Savings Funds for Non-renewable Resources: Experience and Policy Implications. Occasional paper 205, IMF 2001. J.M. Davis, R. Ossowski and A. Fedelino (eds.