samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
During these initial conversations, the concept of macroprudential supervision was introduced as a means of mitigating systemic risk, but the discussion largely centered on defining what macroprudential supervision might entail, and how it differs from more traditional microprudential supervision. More recently, the systemic risk discussions have become increasingly technical and practical in nature—focusing on the details of the resolution regime, monitoring shadow banking and considering implications of shifting activity, and on actual approaches for conducting macroprudential supervision. 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Second, governance has been a frequent topic. Again, this is understandable given its central importance for private sector risk management and the official sector reform agenda. It is interesting that the assortment of discussion topics under the governance agenda item has been remarkably stable over the years. The agendas examined the appropriate roles of the board of directors and senior managers, the degree to which the official sector should prescribe risk management practices and principles, and the need to tailor such expectations depending on an institution’s business models and risk profiles. We should also think beyond the traditional governance topics to determine if other key risk types should be covered within these frameworks. I’ll return to this latter point. The third theme is the changing nature of the discussions around regulatory reform. In 2011 and 2012, much of the agenda focused on the “what” and the “how” of the reform package —what should be included in the reforms and how would these mechanisms work in practice.

Philipp M Hildebrand: Policy implications of the financial crisis Speech by Mr Philipp M Hildebrand, Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Conference, “From Fragility to Stability”, University of Geneva, 18 November 2009. I would like to thank Jürg Blum and Rita Kobel for their valuable support in drafting this speech. I also want to thank Nicole Allenspach, Philipp Haene, and Signe Krogstrup for helpful comments and discussions. *  *  *  Introduction It is an honour to speak at the University of Geneva this evening. I want to thank Rajna Gibson for her kind invitation. A year ago, we were in the midst of a perfect financial storm. Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in mid-September, the imminent collapse of the global financial system became a distinct possibility. Since those dark days, the situation has manifestly improved. A bold and unprecedented global policy response has had its intended short-term effect. While important questions remain as to the sustainability of the global recovery, we are no longer staring into the abyss of financial and – potentially – economic chaos. The worst financial crisis for at least 70 years has not resulted in a new Great Depression. On the other side of the ledger, the tangible and intangible costs of this crisis are enormous.
Rodrigo Vergara: Monetary policy through asset markets – lessons from unconventional measures and implications for an integrated world Opening remarks by Mr Rodrigo Vergara, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, at the Central Bank of Chile’s Nineteenth Annual Conference, Santiago, 19 November 2015. *  *  *  Monetary policy has mostly been about setting the appropriate interest rates to stir the economy towards a path coherent with its fundamentals. In this sense, the developments in most central banks in the last 6 years have not been out of the box, so to speak. But we can probably say, with little risk of overstating reality, that the ways of achieving changes in the cost of credit through monetary policy has changed significantly since the global financial crisis. To fully appreciate the extent of these changes, it’s useful to do a quick recap of what traditional monetary policy was prior to 2008. In the vast majority of countries, the name of the game was setting the stance of the short term rates –indeed, the overnight rate at which banks lend to each other. The hope was that, by influencing this very short-term rate, monetary policy actions would feed into the broader economy by affecting longer term rates, as well as spreads of riskier forms of credit which in the end are the channels by which the policy stance affects the cost of borrowing of households and firms.

The rate of return on the deposit (6) is based on the rate of return on the portfolio backing it, net of hedging and other operational costs; and on maturity the return from the fund is paid over to participating banks, and the principal amount is returned or rolled over. 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  10
This is because we understand that these implementations require that IT systems be developed because almost everything is now tied to IT. We want banks to be able to do this at the same time. There are exceptions when there are extraordinary situations or risks. Or when banks, due to the fact that this is an easing measure, a preferential regime, ask us to introduce these new changes faster. Sometimes we just let them choose: they can remain on the old system or migrate to the new system. This is more difficult for us, but we understand that it is easier for banks to work this way. In our opinion, this increases predictability of the implementation of all our changes in regulation. I would like to say that, together with you, we are trying to remove bottlenecks, to reduce costs where possible, so that banks of varying sizes have the opportunity to work and benefit their customers. For example, for a long time there have been discussions, on all the platforms and during meetings, of banks’ access to funds from the budget, state-owned companies, and today Mr. Aksakov spoke about this, about a draft law. We hope that it will indeed be adopted, and that this topic will no longer require constant discussion. We understand how serious it is from the point of view of ensuring an equal playing field regarding access to state and state companies’ funds. All the more so because they form a significant part of banks’ equities.

We are currently discussing introducing a new standard, which will differ from the current concentration standards (N6, N21) in that a banking group’s assets will be included in the calculation of N30 without risk weighting and will be correlated with the core capital rather than total capital. This, in our opinion, will make it possible to more accurately assess these risks and take into account risk transfer channels and the spread of risks across the group that forms banking groups. We have prepared a draft regulation and plan to discuss it with the banking community. In any case, the introduction of the standard will not take place earlier than 2022. There are, indeed, many topics that need to be discussed, and we are ready to discuss them. As you can see, I have already listed several of the consultation papers that we are publishing. And we will adhere to the practice that was and is in place and think is useful. All innovations that affect banks, will be discussed conceptually as advisory reports, then we will give everyone time to discuss the draft regulations themselves, and then give everyone time to implement these regulatory acts. At the request of the banking community, we have introduced the practice of a release approach. As you know, we are trying to package all changes to regulation in such a way that they come into force twice a year: on 1 April and 1 October.
Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: Payments in the digital era - inside out Speech by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, at the 13th Conference on Payments and Market Infrastructures, jointly organised by the National Bank of North Macedonia and the Netherlands Bank, Ohrid (digitally), 9 December 2021. * * * Dear Governor Knot, Minister Besimi, Dear speakers and participants It is my great pleasure to welcome you to our traditional conference on Payments in the Digital Era: Inside Out, hosted by our central bank together with the Dutch Central Bank, for which I express my deep gratitude to governor Knot and his colleagues. Our lives are becoming increasingly digital as a result of the proliferation of new technologies that transform public and private services making them more convenient and accessible to consumers. As our lives have gone digital, so have our payments. The digitalisation of consumer payment behaviour, which has been going on for years, has been accelerated by the pandemics that shifted it in a higher gear. Globally, last year cash payments declined by 16%, while the number of non-cash transactions increased by 6%. The pandemics has particularly accelerated the shift towards real time/instant payments that grew by 40%. In the euro area, according to the ECB survey on payment attitudes (2020)1, 40% of the respondents stated that since the onset of the pandemic they have used less cash and more cards (contactless in particular).

This is a normal ‘life cycle’ allocation of assets, where people entering retirement seek to reduce the risk in their investments, and aim for some stability in income. This coming shift in asset allocation towards bonds over the medium to long term is itself expected to add to the downward pressure on interest rates. 10. And low interest rates are themselves leading to increases in savings rates, particular among older people. It is debated between economists: whether low interest rates lead to  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  higher or lower savings. But we are seeing how in some countries, older people responding to low interest rates not by going out and spending more, but by saving more so as to be able to assure themselves of a the level of income that they desire in retirement. 11. So we are in a situation where there are self-reinforcing forces. People are getting older, they expect to live for longer, they are saving more and they are allocating more of their funds to bonds. Interest rates remaining low as a result. Older people saving more as a result of low interest rates. The structural gap between savings and investment remains, in turn keeping interest rates low. A self-reinforcing cycle that we are going to have to live with for some time to come. 12. There is a second major factor that adds to this, which is the slowdown in the underlying growth of economies around the world.
Prospects for both the euro area and the Japanese economy seem to have worsened, if anything, at least for the coming year. In the euro area it is manufacturing which has weakened in particular, while consumption still seems to be following a relatively favourable path. Developments in the United States are still fairly strong but some slowdown is still foreseen. The situation in Brazil in recent days has created some renewed unrest in international financial markets, with a limited flight to safe assets. This, too, may affect future international activity, though the turbulence in the wake of the falling real seems, if anything, to have been less than expected. The economic statistics for Sweden suggest that industrial activity may go on weakening. The picture of total resource utilisation is still difficult to assess but there is much to suggest that the proportion of unutilised resources is still comparatively large. Forward indicators, such as incoming orders, also point to a further deterioration. At the same time, households’ expectations of their own economic situation indicate that the development of private consumption will remain relatively good. Household optimism is supported by increased employment and a favourable development of disposable income. However, the sustainability of this development is uncertain, as it was last autumn, partly because households and firms differ in their assessments of the future. Negative news from the business community may make households more pessimistic, and so may renewed unrest in financial markets.

Pay pressures in the labour market are muted, reflecting in part the need of employers to adopt a tough stance in wage bargaining when faced by such large increases in other input costs. Companies facing higher costs for energy, raw materials and other inputs, have been willing to offer only moderate wage increases in  BIS Review 52/2006  3  order to minimise the squeeze on their profit margins. The rapid rise in input prices and the muted degree of pay pressures are not independent of each other. Inflation expectations – whether measured by household surveys or implicit in government bond yields – have moved up during the course of this year. Although not of serious concern as yet, the MPC will monitor inflation expectations carefully. Inflation itself remains volatile as increases in oil and natural gas prices pass through to household bills. Those increases will dampen the growth of real household disposable incomes and moderate consumer spending. So the economic outlook is far from certain. In these circumstances the Monetary Policy Committee must examine carefully all information, learn and, if necessary, revise its judgements, and question all received wisdom. In other words, it must be enlightened. The Scottish Enlightenment, it is generally agreed, began and ended in the 18th century. Our present framework for monetary policy is of more recent vintage.
That’s in part because, to a large extent, the thrifty saver and the rich asset holder are often one and the same. Just 2% of households have deposit holdings in excess of £ few other financial assets, and xxix  don’t own a home. So the vast majority of savers who might have lost some interest income from lower  policy rates have stood to gain from increases in asset prices, particularly the recovery in house prices. Alternatively, have low interest rates meant the rich get richer at the expense of everyone else? Again, no. The data show that the poorest 20% of households have actually seen the largest proportional increases in their net wealth since 2006 (Chart 14), though a large part of this is due to a painful deleveraging (via lower mortgage debt). The data do not support the idea that the period of low rates has benefitted the wealthiest at the expense of the least wealthy. In actual fact, all wealth quintiles have experienced wealth increases. What about the distribution of income? Similar to wealth, and although labour income has been exceptionally weak, the total incomes of all groups have risen since 2006 (Chart 15). In fact, between 2006 and 2014, the bottom 20% saw the largest proportional gains, in spite of a devastating recession. Moreover, all groups have gained since 2009, when extraordinary monetary measures began to be implemented.

There are some speculations about the Stock Exchange in Vienna wanting to be the market for the region [Vienna is the second smallest SE in the EU.]. However, individual countries would prefer to either remain independent, or to cooperate more closely with some bigger partners - such as the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. As shown above, the financial sector is generally in good shape. There are some differences among the individual parts of the financial sector, but the main part [the banking sector] is as sound and  BIS Review 53/2003  9  strong as never before. This is due to several reasons, such as the improving legal environment, improving management, or even outright government financial assistance in the past. However, the greatest difference is due to the privatization to foreign banking institutions. These institutions have brought all the necessary components for successful long-term banking. The legislative and regulatory framework has been harmonized with the acqui communautaire. The harmonization has been confirmed by EC Peer reviews and by the multinational financial institutions (such as the IMF and World Bank during their FSAP process). Of course, there is still a lot of work to be done. The legislation and regulation shall be more streamlined, the area of law enforcement needs to function more efficiently, changes in accounting standards must be made. But these tasks are not related purely to the EU accession. They would have to be done under any circumstances. The financial sectors in the new member states are functioning efficiently, and are stable and competitive.
That is why the Bank considers the course of inflation in the medium term rather than the current course while taking decisions about policy rates. The Bank also pays attention to the consistency of the course of inflation in the medium term with the targets. However, settlement of such a medium-term approach in the countries having experienced chronic inflation for a long time like ours takes time and this is an important handicap for the fight against inflation. Therefore, recognition and adoption of the mediumterm approach by all units within the economy bears great importance so that policy decisions can be interpreted accurately and implemented effectively. Thus, we put special emphasis on this subject in all reports and announcements made by the Bank. Secondly, the Bank makes use of a wide set of data in order to foresee the medium-term course of inflation. The Bank publishes an “Inflation Report” quarterly. This report announces to the public the numerical inflation forecasts with a medium-term approach together with the consistent policy response. However, all the new information we obtain and all the new developments can change our projections and numerical inflation forecasts regarding the course of inflation. The forecasts published by the Bank should be evaluated within this framework and it should be noted that they can change when the conditions regarding economic environment change. Distinguished Guests, Now I would like to briefly talk about the significant factors, which may affect the outlook of inflation.

The Iranian sanctions are designed to stifle the Iranian regime’s nuclear ambitions. The Cuban sanctions are intended to hinder the advancement of communism in the Americas and to change an oppressive regime through a trade embargo. For U.S. financial institutions, which operate on the basis of a public charter issued in the United States, the public purposes supporting economic sanctions and the detailed sanctions regulations are in harmony. With respect to rule compliance, the staff will follow those rules not simply because they are required to but also because they want to. While I am not here to speak for foreign institutions that have committed sanctions evasion, including BNPP, my sense from the evidence is that these institutions looked at economic sanctions very differently. They looked at economic sanctions as technical “American” rules that were not seen as consistent with the organization’s and the home country’s larger value system. In Europe, they found no similar sanctions, and there it was perfectly legal at the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  time to do business with these sanctioned jurisdictions. Some European bankers almost naturally adopted the view that there was no value system underlying the technical American legal rule. The foreign institutions saw the situation as providing financial services to just another country; not to a country committing genocide; not to a country building a nuclear weapon; and not to a country fostering a dehumanizing ideology. This failure to correlate the rule with the value is the root of real mischief.
As I mentioned at the outset, every act of misconduct starts with an individual’s decision – and that individual should be accountable for that decision. But that decision is also heavily shaped by the environment or “the barrel” that individual works in – by the standards or norms established by regulation, market practice and firm-level expectations; by the extent to which responsibilities are clearly allocated and governed; by the incentives that an individual is given, financial or otherwise;  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  by the perceived probability of being caught; and by the expected penalty if he or she is caught. The recent speeches by Bill Dudley 5 and Dan Tarullo 6 of the US Federal Reserve at a workshop on reforming culture and behaviour in the financial services industry set these issues out very nicely. 4. Standards of market practice  We start with standards or norms of market practice. On one view, the existing regulatory provisions and voluntary codes – and there are many of the latter – provide a sufficient guide to expectations of market practice. If that is the case, the main priority should be enforcement actions against those who are in breach, and a parallel process of ensuring that all FICC market participants understand the implications of those provisions. The Review explores a number of ideas for deepening that education process and encouraging more of Kahneman’s “System 2” type thinking.

And the European Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) will greatly extend the coverage of market abuse provisions over FICC markets. Internationally, the programme of derivatives reform led by the G20 will see large sections of the derivatives market moved onto organised venues for the first time. And foreign exchange committees have committed to developing a set of global high-level principles on FX trading. Closer to home, there have also been a number of initiatives aimed at improving culture and behaviour at a firm and individual level, including the UK Parliamentary Commission on  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Banking Standards, the Banking Standards Review Council (BSRC), and widespread efforts by individual firms to strengthen internal controls. The introduction of malus, bonus clawback and the Senior Managers and Certification regime in the UK will strengthen accountability as well. Is it enough? This range of initiatives should make markets more fair and effective. But we need to make sure that taken together they add up to a comprehensive solution to fix the barrel and to get rid of the bad apples. A primary aim of our Review is to take stock, and ask whether the extent of regulatory, organisational and technological change since the crisis will be sufficient to ensure FICC markets are fair and effective in the future. Over the next three months, we want to hear from those directly active in those markets, from the companies and households who rely on them, from academics, and from public authorities globally.