samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As a result, central banks tend to prefer a monetary policy strategy that lies somewhere between these two extremes, avoiding excessively large interest rate adjustments but not hesitating to adjust when this is called for. The Riksbank normally formulates monetary policy with a view to inflation one to two years ahead. This unfortunately means that the repo rate has to be set with the aid of forecasts and forecasts can err. Moreover, there is always the possibility of price shocks that are a-cyclical but still affect the rate of inflation. A forward-looking policy has the advantage, however, of permitting an implementation that is smoother yet firm. The Riksbank reacts to the inflation forecasts in a determined manner but as the forecasts include an assessment of the extent to which inflationary impulses are transient, over-reactions are avoided. The supply shocks I referred to earlier as having occurred during the past year are examples of price fluctuations that, with the monetary policy strategy the Riksbank has chosen, can occasion deviations from the inflation target. This is not the first time inflation has been affected by occasional factors. In the late 1990s, for example, successive deregulations of electricity and telecom markets resulted in deviations from the target, the difference being that at that time the gap was on the downside. What has happened now is the opposite. With our monetary policy strategy, this is a natural case of striking a reasonable balance between maintaining the fixed value of money and avoiding excessively large fluctuations in economic activity.

Four times a year the Riksbank presents a more comprehensive account; at present we are working on this year’s first Inflation Report. Let me remind you that for those who are interested, these reports are easily downloaded from our website: www.riksbank.se. Perhaps I should add that in addition to the text, the site provides the equally relevant statistics behind the charts. Two routes for a central bank Any central bank with an explicit target is faced with a choice that in its most extreme form looks something like this: either aim to keep inflation continuously on target or admit that there will be deviations that may last for quite some time. If inflation is to be kept close to the target all the time, there will be a constant need for sizeable repo rate adjustments, with the attendant marked fluctuations in market interest rates, output and employment. If temporary deviations from the central bank’s target are tolerated, on the other hand, monetary policy can be implemented more smoothly. A gradual adjustment of output and employment ultimately brings inflation back into line with the target. Both these routes have their drawbacks. Negative effects on employment and output from major changes in the repo rate are liable to erode public confidence in the central bank and the monetary policy regime. At the same time, undue acceptance of large deviations from the inflation target may weaken the target’s credibility and lead both to rising inflation expectations and to high costs for ultimately bringing inflation back on target.
We have already seen significant consolidation and increased efficiency of the banking sector as the first phase of FSMP ended. In addition to FSMP, the amendments and introduction of a number of legislations, such as the new Financial Institutions Act and the Deposit Insurance Act, will foster a more efficient financial sector. On the supervisory side, we have also continued our efforts to enhance financial sector's resiliency to unfavorable disturbances through an early adoption of IAS 39, currently underway, and the new Basel Capital Accord at the end of next year. FSMP and improved supervision will complement structural reforms in the real sector to bring about strong foundations for further economic growth and stability. Structural reforms in the real sector continue to need concerted efforts from both the private and public sectors as well as support from foreign investors like all of you here. The BoT is committed to doing all the necessary work for a strong financial sector that will provide a supportive environment and infrastructure for the private sector to prosper. Ladies and gentlemen, the essence of my talk today is to reassure you that the performance of the Thai economy has been satisfactory and that, despite the adverse environment and challenges facing the Thai economy, I strongly believe that the Thai economy will be able to continue to perform favorably while moving forward. We are strongly committed to implementing the most appropriate policies to help foster growth, stability and resiliency of the economy and to further strengthen its solid foundation.

Under inflation targeting, the emphasis is given to maintaining core inflation within the target range and, at the same time, achieving a balanced growth path. We use the 1-day repurchase rate as a policy instrument to keep the quarterly average of core inflation within the target range of 0-3.5 percent. If inflationary pressure heightens and thereby increases the possibility of core inflation breaching the target, interest rate has to be raised. Bearing in mind that a time lag of 4-8 quarters before a change in the policy rate can be fully transmitted to the rest of the economy, policy consideration needs to be forward-looking. Upward inflationary pressure over the past few years, due to higher oil prices, has been tamed by monetary tightening. We raised the policy rate 13 times between August 2004 and June 2006, bringing the policy rate to 5.00 percent from 1.25 percent per annum. Hikes in the policy rate have brought the money market and commercial bank interest rates higher over the past 2 years. Our policy response proved timely, with inflation and its second round effects well contained. Recently, domestic demand, particularly in private consumption and investment, showed signs of a slowdown, while economic momentum from exports was expected to moderate, given the prospects of the global economy in 2007. Since inflationary pressures have subsided in line with easing energy prices, monetary policy could be eased in support of a further expansion of the economy.
This position is unique, at the very least for two reasons: The first reason is that Bulgaria is the only country in the European Union, which is a member of the European Banking Union, a key institution of the euro area, but it is not a member of the euro area itself. The second reason is that Bulgaria is one of the two countries in the European Union, together with Denmark, whose currency has joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, which many observers describe as the euro area "waiting room". The preparedness of the Central Bank and of the banking sector to operate under the conditions of the euro area, as well as the stability of the exchange rate are actually two of the most important requirements for a country to enter the euro area. These requirements, in the case of Bulgaria, have already been met. As you know, in 2020 Bulgaria become a full member of the European Banking Union. Ever since our currency has been part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. By virtue of our membership in the European Banking Union and in its key mechanisms, the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Mechanism, the Bulgarian National Bank takes part in making the most important decisions related to the supervision and resolution of the banks in the euro area, plus of course the banks in Bulgaria.

Dimitar Radev: Bulgaria in the eurozone – what is next for the business Speech by Mr Dimitar Radev, Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, at the conference "Bulgaria in the eurozone – what is next for the business", organised by the American Chamber of Commerce in Bulgaria (AmCham), Sofia, 5 April 2023. *** Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you for the invitation. It is a real pleasure for me to be here at this Conference. Over the last few months, I have had the opportunity to attend several similar events. My personal impression is that the business is becoming more and more actively involved in Bulgaria's accession to the euro area and this is a very positive trend. I am going to dwell on three issues, trying not to repeat what Mr. Mihailov and Mr. Metodiev have said, which by the way I totally agree with. The three questions associated with the process of Bulgaria's accession to the euro area that I will focus on are: what is the starting position; what comes next; and what are the conditions needed for this process to finish successfully. Starting position Before we go into discussion on the next steps, we have to be very clear about what our starting position is.
We also completed our investigations into the sale and marketing of structured notes linked to Lehman Brothers by these financial institutions. Our investigation found that the nature and extent of failings identified and their potential impact on the sales process and customers differed for each institution. It is clear from our investigation findings that an across-the-board general settlement for all investors would not have been justifiable. We understand that not everyone agrees with the case-by-case approach. However, we believe it is the correct approach that is fair to all parties concerned. There are lessons from this episode for financial institutions, investors and MAS. Thus, in the third area of enhancing confidence in our financial system, we have to review the roles undertaken by all parties. MAS has reviewed the sale and marketing of structured products, and in March 2009 put out for consultation a set of proposals to further safeguard consumers’ interests and promote higher industry standards for the sale and marketing of unlisted investment products. For financial institutions, the Board and senior management must take immediate steps to win back the trust and confidence of their customers. MAS’ Fair Dealing guidelines reiterate that the Board and senior management of financial institutions are responsible for achieving fair dealing outcomes by their institutions. They will  4  BIS Review 91/2009  need to go beyond just addressing the failings identified in MAS’ investigations. One immediate area for attention is staff training.

We have therefore worked with the Government on two measures to enhance the resilience of the SGS market. MAS will be empowered to either adjust the issuance size or vary its subscription amount to stabilise an auction. This will mitigate the risk of disorderly trading in specific securities or further volatility in the secondary market. In the event of extreme market conditions or disruption, MAS will be empowered to cancel an auction. In ensuring stability and resilience of the financial sector, a key anchor is a central bank backed by a strong balance sheet. We have increased our total capital and reserves to $ billion, representing close to 11% of MAS’ total assets of $ billion. This will position us well to navigate through a potentially volatile financial market environment, and allow us to implement a broader range of measures to stabilize the Singapore financial system should the need ever arise. While local institutions withstood the crisis and remained sound, a large number of local investors were adversely affected when the credit-linked structured notes they bought defaulted or were redeemed early. Although the defaults were triggered by an unprecedented financial crisis, it has been a painful experience for affected investors. MAS has responded by taking prompt measures to require affected financial institutions to review complaints rigorously. MAS’ approach was for financial institutions to review complaints on a case-by-case basis. Settlement offers are made by the financial institutions taking into account the particular facts and circumstances of each transaction.
Indeed that is why we took it upon ourselves to reform SONIA. We started collecting daily data on money market transactions in February 2016 from over 50 banks, building societies and investment firms. These data give us a much clearer picture than we have previously had of what is going on in sterling money markets. A subset of the data will be used for reformed SONIA. The reformed rate will be much more robust, with daily transaction volumes three to four times greater than current SONIA. Any change in SONIA’s properties will be minimal – so far the reformed rate has been around one basis point lower than on the current methodology. Another key reform is that the Bank has consulted on and will implement a changed definition for SONIA. The new definition will allow the methodology and input data of SONIA to evolve if material changes to market structure or functioning threaten to undermine the integrity of the rate. This unique feature will ensure the robustness of SONIA over the long term, giving users confidence that their contracts will not be disrupted. Let me emphasise that, from the perspective of a user of SONIA, implementing these reforms should be seamless. However, one operational consequence that users should be aware of and prepare for is that the publication time for SONIA will move from the evening of the day in question to the morning of the following day. The Bank is working with ISDA, LCH and others to ensure this change is implemented smoothly.

And, where there are coordination issues we will stand ready to assist the market in solving them. What we are asking from you is to engage with the Working Group. As I’ve already said, we are under no illusions that transition will be easy. That is why it is so important that you help identify the challenges and opportunities of adopting SONIA more broadly. The Working Group has produced a paper which seeks your input on a number of specific questions. Please do respond. 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  6  It also invites participation in the work of the Group over coming months. Please do get involved in shaping the future of sterling markets – starting from now. I am looking forward to hearing your thoughts this morning. 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7
Thomas C Baxter, Jr: Financial stability – the role of the Federal Reserve System Remarks by Mr Thomas C Baxter, Jr, Executive Vice President and General Counsel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Future of Banking Regulation and Supervision in the EU Conference, Frankfurt am Main, 15 November 2013. *  *  *  Today we gather to celebrate the career of a great central bank lawyer, Antonio Sáinz de Vicuña, who is retiring from his position as general counsel of the European Central Bank. The accomplishments of the European Central Bank (ECB) in a short period of time are a huge credit to the people who built the organization. Antonio is one of those people. He was there even before the very beginning, given his position as general counsel of the European Monetary Institute back in 1994. Many here have heard Antonio talk about those seminal first days, when European monetary union was considered nothing more than a remarkable experiment that would never become a reality. Of course, monetary union within the Eurozone has become reality, and the success of the ECB has inspired the ECB’s latest challenge. As Antonio retires, the ECB is taking the first important steps toward becoming a pan-European banking supervisor. The fact that banking supervision is being entrusted to the ECB is perhaps the best evidence of its overwhelming success as a European institution. Of course, it is rare that great success comes without hardship.

None are perfect but all are independent of the internal model, and therefore can help provide us with a different view on the evolution of risk exposures and a safeguard against model drift. All risk measures have their limitations. So we plan to use a range of measures alongside other supervisory review process initiatives, such as the analysis of internal model outputs. Conclusion In conclusion, given today’s audience, I want to stress the critical professional role of actuaries in current soft market conditions, where there may be a greater tension between on the one hand underwriting discipline and appropriate reserving and on the other hand business growth and current-year profits. Actuaries are responsible for providing assurance on reserves and opinions on both the underwriting and reinsurance strategies of firms, implying strong engagement with the risk function, as well as independence and objectivity in their assessments. Events like today’s, where actuaries come together to share knowledge, with the aim of raising professional standards, are particularly important and welcome. Chart 1  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
This was an institutional attempt to avoid the temptation to stoke the economy in the short-term, and to anchor inflation expectations in the longer-term, thereby building policy credibility. With these new policy powers came, reasonably enough, new responsibilities for central banks. For the first time in their histories, central banks needed to be far more open and transparent about their policy targets and actions. Why? Because it was through greater transparency that policy suspicions among the public could be allayed, thereby helping anchor inflation expectations in the economy. As unelected technocrats acting on society’s behalf, operational independence also called for new means of ensuring central banks were sufficiently accountable to society. Holding central banks’ feet to the flames called for greater public transparency and greater public scrutiny than ever previously. Trust in central banks could not be endowed by statute. It needed instead to be earned through experience and societal scrutiny. These forces brought about a revolution in central bank practices regarding transparency and accountability. Over the course of the past century, the number of Bank of England appearances before Parliament has risen around 20-fold; the number of publications issued has risen around 600-fold; and the number of words uttered has risen around 1,000-fold. You don’t need Tracy Chapman to tell you I’m talkin’ ‘bout a revolution. Elsewhere around the world, the pattern has been much the same. We have seen a rising tide of speeches, publications and parliamentary appearances by central banks.

Diversity of thought simultaneously increases the chances of creative solutions being found, while reducing the chances of terrible solutions being adopted. It fattens the upper tail, and thins the lower tail, of the insight distribution. Diversity delivers higher return for lower risk. 28  These benefits arise, in part, from having a wider pool of ideas in which to fish and a deeper pool in which to dilute risks. But they also arise from the collective benefits of having these new ideas and risks challenged and filtered by a group. The benefits of diversity arise as much from interactions within the group, as from the new ideas each person brings. But both are important for good ideas to emerge and for bad ideas to submerge. And it is this which fattens returns and slims risks, whatever the decision. 27 28  Surowiecki (2004). Haldane (2016). 11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  11  These benefits have been demonstrated in a number of real-world settings. In his book The Difference, Scott Page goes a step further with a “Diversity Trumps Ability” theorem. 29  This states that the  highest-performing team is very unlikely to arise from bringing together the individually-best experts. Instead it comes from combining insights from diverse sources, expert and non-expert. It comes from a cocktail of experience, some specialist, some generalist. The returns to diversity are not limitless. When choosing the optimal asset portfolio, most of the benefits of diversification come from the first few assets.
The third cluster encompasses so-called utility tokens, which act as electronic coupons that can be exchanged for future services, products or benefits marketed through the issuer’s own platform. The very capital raised from the sale of these tokens will then be used to fund the development of the forthcoming products or services. In principle, provided their amount remains limited, these will be subject to regulations on consumer protection, online trading, data protection and business operations, but not financial ones. Another classification criteria of the crypto-asset ecosystem has to do with the primary nature of each token. Tokens are understood to be a specific unit of digital value, as assembled by an issuing organization, which further enables interactions between those agents that operate in the virtual space.6 In some cases these are dubbed native tokens since they are created from scratch with no underlying asset. They are further linked to a specific ledger. This is the case of bitcoin and its blockchain network. Given their singularities, the value of these tokens stems essentially from their users’ expectations as to how they may be used in future transactions, rather than, for example, as result of a potential cash flow or their issuer’s fundamentals. In other cases, these tokens are connected to actual real-world assets, be they financial or of another kind. This, for instance, allows real estate assets to be broken down into  3  According to information available at Coinmarketcap.com. 4  Bitcoin is the most notable example.

10  Chainalysis (2021), “The 2021 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report”. The Banco de España does not guarantee the accuracy of these figures as they depend, exclusively, on the data processing capacity of a private provider. 11  J. M. Carbó and S. Gorjón (2022), “Application of machine learning models and interpretability techniques to identify the determinants of the price of bitcoin”, Working Paper No 2215, Banco de España. 4  volatility is much more pronounced in the case of unbacked crypto-assets, but it also impacts others. Moreover, interconnections with the rest of the financial system have increased substantially. One such example is the sudden rise in the number of crypto-asset investors (both institutional and retail). In addition, the range of sophisticated products around cryptoassets has expanded, with a growing portfolio of exchange-traded funds (ETFs),12 investment funds and futures contracts referenced to crypto-assets. The latter was key to attracting new investor cohorts to the digital assets’ space.13 What’s more, some large private firms did publicly announce their interest in using cryptoassets for cash management purposes, while others were campaigning in favour of their wide acceptance as a means of payment.14 Some major financial players, such as global banks and international card service providers, have enlarged the selection of ancillary services around digital assets (including custody and trading services) which they offer or have allowed them to be used directly as a medium of exchange in their proprietary networks.