samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This move should curb growth in household debt: if customers take more loans than they can service, it is a threat to their personal well-being and the stability of banks. We believe that this move is well timed because the consumer lending market is expanding rapidly, outpacing growth in corporate lending, and we should keep retail lending under control. The average level of household debt burden for the country may seem low: it is currently roughly 10%, which means that on average, households use this share of their income to repay loans. However, when measured for borrowers only, the indicator suggests that they have to spend as much as 44% of their income on repaying loans. Therefore, we need to calculate the debt burden for each individual borrower. Development of the banking sector Last year, banks increased lending and cut interest rates on loans. Lending to the economy rose by 5.8% compared to 3.7% in 2017. In the first four months of this year, corporate lending expanded by 2.5%, whereas in the same period of the previous year this figure was 2.3%. Interest rates on loans went down most of the year until inflation risks turned to growth and the Bank of Russia raised its key rate. We are currently expecting interest rates to resume their downward trend on the back of falling inflation. Banks can further increase lending, as they have both capital and liquidity. We are introducing incentive-based regulation measures, which should encourage lending to the real sector.

Under the new rules and our strict supervisory practices, we are optimistic that the banking system will play a more meaningful role in the economy in the near future. Ladies and gentlemen, Much has transpired since 1997. Our economy has been under intense pressure to perform, and I am confident enough to say that we are in a better position today to manage future challenges. Although, the outlook for 2002 is brighter than that of last year, we do remain somewhat cautious. The reform process must continue so that the global pick-up does not pass us by and that our economy can secure the potential gains imbedded in our talented entrepreneurs and workforce. It has been an honor and thank you for your attention tonight. 4  BIS Review 16/2002
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Renminbi trade settlement and investment in Malaysia – future prospects Keynote address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Seminar on “Renminbi trade settlement and investment in Malaysia – future prospects”, Kuala Lumpur, 27 September 2012. *  *  *  This decade has seen significant change in the configuration of the global economy. In this evolving global landscape, Asia is emerging as an increasingly important component of the world economy. During this period, most of the Asian economies have experienced remarkable growth, despite a most challenging environment. With rising incomes in the region, Asia has also become a huge cumulative market. This trend has in turn prompted greater intra-regional trade and investment activities. A more recent trend in the Asian region is the greater regional financial integration that is facilitating greater cross-border financial flows in the region that is funding productive investment activities in the region. Following the recent global financial crisis, the most pressing challenge for the world economy is to achieve economic strength that is sustainable. While most national economies have implemented wide ranging policy measures to promote growth, equally important are the efforts to sustain world trade which will be mutually reinforcing to global growth. China’s economic journey in this global shift and the growing influence of renminbi ushers us into a new exciting era. China, by its sheer size and its economic performance has significant potential to contribute to world growth.

Repo rate forecasts, per cent, quarterly averages 7  7 90% 75% 50% Outcome Forecast  6 5  Greater effects of support measures Confidence strengthened more quickly  6 5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  Phasing out of support measures Higher productivity  -2  -2 04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  Source: The Riksbank  We are currently expecting to hold the repo rate unchanged at a low level for a further period to come, until autumn 2010. This is necessary to contribute to a stable recovery and to attain the inflation target of 2 per cent. Moreover, we Executive Board members decided at the most recent monetary policy meeting that further measures were necessary to contribute to interest rates on loans to companies and households remaining low. We therefore decided to offer the banks the opportunity to borrow from the Riksbank at a fixed interest rate and a maturity of around 11 months. The loan auction was held on Monday this week and the final amount lent was SEK 95.3 billion. We expect the loans to the banks to complement the repo rate tool in a way that enables monetary policy to have the desired effect. Once economic activity has recovered, we are intending to raise the repo rate to more normal levels.
What Indonesians have termed KKN – corruption, collusion and nepotism – is now generally recognised to be a serious problem to be combated and not just accepted as the way business is done. Strengthening domestic institutions will enable Asian countries to sustain long-term recovery and growth. Governments must restructure the financial and corporate sectors. Insolvent financial institutions need to be closed down or merged with stronger ones. In the corporate sector, unviable companies must go while weak, but viable companies must restructure their balance sheets and rationalise their operations. This calls for deft handling and sensitive political judgement as to how fast and far to go and how to trade off between social and political objectives on the one hand and economic efficiency on the other. A sound banking system is fundamental. This starts with the adoption of high standards of financial supervision and regulation supported by a sound legal system. More importantly, regulators and governments should not neglect the establishment of a strong credit culture. This is the “software” of good banking governance. Banks must lend in a disciplined way, based on commercial viability rather than “relationships”. A relationships-based system undermines competition and disclosure. It results at best in misallocation of resources and at worst in a collapse of the whole financial system. Banking governance must be complemented by strong corporate governance. Poor corporate governance practices have allowed massive unreported losses and hidden liabilities to develop.

In the post-crisis era, the conventional wisdom is that emerging markets should choose either a free-floating or fixed exchange rate system. But neither is a panacea. Fixed exchange rates are hard to sustain in a world of global capital mobility. Furthermore, they tend to be viable only when supported by large foreign reserves and strong institutional arrangements. Even then, the exchange rate can still become misaligned and vulnerable, as has happened in Argentina. In Hong Kong, strong foreign reserves and well-developed financial authorities and institutions made its currency board workable and credible. But even the Hong Kong dollar came under fierce attack in this crisis. In other countries a fixed exchange rate may be completely infeasible. Thus Professor Steve Hanke’s proposal to set up a currency board system to stabilise the rupiah was viewed with deep scepticism by policymakers both in Indonesia as well as the IMF and the World Bank. Neither does a free-floating exchange rate always work. Even developed countries do not remain impassive when capital flows overwhelm trade flows and threaten the competitiveness of the country’s exports. A prime example is Japan. And despite a free-float, the exchange rate may spiral downwards if there is a loss of confidence. This happened in Indonesia and Brazil after they abandoned their exchange rate pegs. Singapore operates a managed float. This policy has prevented the currency from getting too far out of line and rendering our exports uncompetitive as a fixed rate might have done.
Of course, since interest rates cannot fall below zero, we are running out of room for further cuts. But it must not be forgotten that even if Bank Rate remains where it is, the recent cuts in Bank Rate will continue to provide a building boost to demand through this year and beyond – we don’t have to keep on cutting rates in order to provide a stimulus. Second, in November, the Government announced a temporary cut in VAT and an acceleration of spending on public investment projects, which should help support demand in the near term. Third, and most importantly, to supplement the measures taken last October, the Government has launched a five-point plan to ensure an adequate supply of credit to households and business. This comprises measures: to reduce uncertainty about the adequacy of bank capital by capping the losses on their holdings of risky assets; to facilitate  2  BIS Review 19/2009  bank funding through the attachment of state guarantees; to boost the availability of funds to business through direct purchases of company debt; to raise the availability of mortgage finance to households by halting the running down of Northern Rock’s mortgage book; and, finally, to establish a concordat with the banks under which they will maintain an adequate flow of credit to the real economy.

Mugur Isrescu: nvestments in challenging times - how can Romanian firms thrive in the new context? Opening speech by Mr Mugur Isrescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the conference "Investments in challenging times: How can Romanian firms thrive in the new context? ", Bucharest, 16 March 2023. *** Vice-President Pavlova, Chief Economist Revoltella, Distinguished audience, Ladies and gentlemen, Welcome to this year's conference organized by the European Investment Bank in partnership with the National Bank of Romania, titled "Investments in challenging times: How can Romanian firms thrive in the new context?". I am glad that we are able to meet again at the National Bank of Romania, after 2 years in which we had to host this event exclusively on-line. Please allow me to extend a warm welcome to the EIB representatives that are joining us: Vice-President Pavlova, Chief Economist Revoltella and Ms. Tasan Zanin, Head of the EIB office in Bucharest, and to all our colleagues and guests that are with us today, in person or online. I commend EIB's continuous involvement and support in engaging with stakeholders in Romania through these valuable series of events. There is already a tradition, today's conference being the sixth we have co-organized and hosted. Romania and the European Investment Bank share a long and fruitful partnership that has resulted in projects in important sectors of our economy. I am certain we will be able to continue to build on this important partnership, tackling variable challenges and opportunities.
This would reduce the incentive for countries to conduct a whole set of policies such as:   generating current account surpluses through active exchange rate management    ring fencing pools of liquidity and capital in local subsidiaries, therefore creating a potential segmentation of international financial markets.   implementing “soft” capital controls to limit the impact of shocks and diminish the need for reserves  All countries, therefore have a common interest in finding ways to disconnect reserve accumulation from exchange rate management and, more generally, from balance of payment situations and monetary policies. The need for national reserves could be reduced if credible mechanisms exist to provide for the supply of official liquidity on a multilateral basis. Significant progress has been achieved in this direction during the recent period. A dense network of forex swaps has been put into place between major Central Banks in the midst of the crisis. Other recent official initiatives include: the creation by the IMF of a new facility – the Flexible Credit Line – aimed at easing liquidity pressures on countries with no fundamental balance of payments difficulties; a new SDR allocation, the biggest ever, for the equivalent of 250 bn USD, which has been enacted by the IMF Executive Board. These are, however, revocable and limited sources of liquidity provision. Swap agreements can be (and have been) terminated.

Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff (2004), “The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited”, NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Obstfeld M., Rogoff K. (2009), “Global imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes”. Obstfeld, M., J. C. Shambaugh and A. M. Taylor (2009), “Financial Stability, the Trilemma and International Reserves”, NBER Working Paper 14826. Ostry, J. D., A. R. Ghosh, K. Habermeier, M. Chamon, M. S. Qureshi and D. B. S. Reinhardt (2010) ”Capital Flows : The Role Of Controls“, IMF Staff Position Note SPN/10/04. Rodrik D. and A. Subramanian (2008): “Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint?”, http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/subramanian0308.pdf. BIS Review 120/2010  11
BIS Review 47/1997  -2-  A new direction in economic policy The 1970s and ’80s illustrate how a period of inflation creates an atmosphere of uncertainty and instability, with a speculative climate and “short-termism” in economic decisions. Slowly but surely, production’s long-term conditions deteriorate. It was partly in the light of such experiences that Swedish economic policy was realigned at the turn of the 1980s. Since then, the focus on price stability has gained broad support in our society, including the political parties. However, in view of the severe economic problems in the early 1990s, with inflation expectations based on our historical record and a massive budget deficit, it took time for the new direction of economic policy to acquire credibility. This has been evident, for instance, in the periods of interest and exchange rate unrest. Financial market trends particularly in the longer run can be regarded as an indicator of the prevailing degree of confidence in the determination and ability to conduct an economic policy that is consistent and oriented towards stability. With the free movement of capital and the globalisation of financial markets, economic policy decision-makers need to be highly disciplined. In the light of our experience since the policy realignment at the turn of the ’80s, this is a fact that is widely recognised today in Sweden. Turning the clock back would not be feasible.

Given the proven track record of the two existing links, I am confident that the new link with the Thai Baht RTGS system will similarly be able to deliver reliable service to the banks in Thailand. As always, the HKMA stands ready to explore with our Asian neighbours opportunities for further collaboration in the area of financial infrastructure to promote regional financial integration and to help our markets cope with the challenges posed by the rapidly changing landscape of the global financial system. The implementation of this new PvP link demonstrates that both the Bank of Thailand and the HKMA fully recognise the merits and importance of cross-border co-operation to the promotion and maintenance of financial stability in the region. I believe that the solid partnership developed out of this project will open up new horizons for further cooperation between the Bank of Thailand and the HKMA in the future. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Figure 2 Nominal loans by type of credit (annual change, percent) 30  30  25  25  20  20  15  15  10  10  5  5  0  0  -5  -5 03  04  05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Consumer Housing Commercial  12  13  Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Superintendence of Banks and Financial Institutions (SBIF). BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Figure 3 Inflation indicators (annual change, percent) 10  10  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4  -6  -6 06  07 CPI  08  09  CPIEFE  10  11  CPIEFE goods  13  12 CPIEFE services  Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE). Table 1 International baseline scenario assumptions 2011  Growth  Trading partners' GDP  2012 (e) Dec.12 Mar.13 Report Report 4.2  3.3  2013 (f) Dec.12 Mar.13 Report Report  2014 (f) Dec.12 Mar.13 Report Report  (annual change, percent)  3.4  3.5  3.6  4.0  4.2  World GDP at PPP  3.9  3.0  3.0  3.3  3.3  3.8  3.9  United States Eurozone Japan China India Rest of Asia (excl. Japan, China and India) Latin America (excl.

Figure 4  CPI inflation (*) (annual change, percent)  CPIEFE inflation (*) (annual change, percent)  10  10 10  10  8  8  8  8  6  6  6  6  4  4  4  4  2  2  2  2  0  0  0  0  -2  -2 -2  -2  -4  -4 -4  -4  07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15  Dec.2012 Report  07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Mar.2013 Report  (*) Gray area, as from the first quarter of 2013, shows forecast. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE). BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  Figure 5 MPR and expectations (percent) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0  9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 07  08  09  MPR  10  11  13  12  FBS, March 2013.Q2  14  15  EES, March 2013  Source: Central Bank of Chile.
And risks that may have been eclipsed by the pandemic remain live – whether geo-political, long term demographic trends, or climate change. While we know that climate change can create financial risks on both sides of insurers’ balance sheets, and that some combination of crystallization of physical and transition risk is inevitable, the timing and extent of specific impacts are highly uncertain, particularly on exposures to specific industries. What should firms and regulators be doing to prepare, in the face of these multiple and potentially interacting sources of risk and uncertainty? One significant response to unknown risks and uncertainty is stress testing and scenario analysis, and that is what I want to focus on today. Current firm-specific and sector-wide stress testing Stress testing is already a central feature of the Solvency II regulatory regime for insurers. Firm-specific stresses provide assurance that firms are highly likely to be able to meet their obligations to policyholders: the capital calculation can be thought of as a stylized, 1-in-200 severity stress test of the whole balance sheet. Firms are also required to undertake scenario analysis within their Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA).4 The ORSA process is designed for the firm to provide a narrative of the type of (bespoke) risks it is exposed to and to illustrate how resilient it is to those. To these firm-specific measures we have added periodic, regulator-led stress tests, whose purpose is to assess the sector’s ability to meet policyholder claims in a common scenario, which reflects micro- and macro-prudential concerns of the PRA.

And we expect firms to continue to do this and maintain high levels of prudence in the face of continuing high uncertainty.6 Stress testing: 2021 and beyond In the near future we have two more stress tests coming up using a common scenario: (1) The Bank of England will be using the 2021 biennial exploratory scenario (BES) to explore the financial risks posed by climate change. The exercise aims to test the resilience of the current business models of the  5 6  See Insurance Stress Test 2019: Feedback for general and life insurers (June 2020). See Letter from Sam Woods to insurers on distribution of profits (March 2020). 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  4  largest banks, insurers, and the financial system to climate related risks – as well as the scale of adjustment that will need to be undertaken in coming decades for the system to remain resilient. Conducting a climate stress test poses distinct challenges compared to conventional macro-financial or insurance stress tests. The Bank is using feedback from last year’s discussion paper to ensure it is effective and that the design is appropriate.7 We are having further engagement with financial firms, climate scientists, economists, other industry experts, and informed stakeholder groups to support this work. We will publish scenarios in June 2021, with initial submissions due by the end of September. Given this time frame we would encourage firms to start developing their capabilities sooner rather than later.
The Bank and the PRA will continue this year to support the Government’s negotiations on at least seven more, including by completing an assessment of the Swiss regulatory regime for a mutual recognition agreement which is currently under negotiation. 9. PRA Consultation Paper 15/22 and FCA Consultation Paper 22/28 – ‘Remuneration: Ratio between fixed and variable components of total remuneration (“bonus cap”)’, December 2022. 10. The latest version of the regulatory grid  is produced by the Regulatory Initiatives Forum which is made up of the  Bank (including the PRA), the FCA, the Payment Systems Regulator, the Competition and Markets Authority, the Financial Reporting Council, The Pensions Regulator, and the Information Commissioner’s Office. HM Treasury attends as an observer member. In addition to producing the regulatory grid, the Forum monitors the overall weight of regulation. This PRA uses this information to review and, when necessary, adjust its plans for regulatory activity. 11. See also the existing Policy Index that improves access to current materials. 12. PRA Discussion Paper 5/22 – ‘Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning’, October 2022. An updated approach to firms’ broader risk management will incorporate our latest thinking on these topics. 13. The BCBS published a standard on the prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures in December 2022: ‘Prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures ’. The PRA will be consulting on an implementation of this standard after Basel 3.1 rules have been finalised.

Ardian Fullani: Overview of Albania’s latest economic and financial developments Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, on the Monetary Policy Decision-Making of the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council, Tirana, 30 April 2013. *  *  *  Today, on 30 April 2013, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania reviewed and approved the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Based on the most recent monetary and economic developments in Albania, and following the discussions on their outlook, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged, at 3.75%. The Supervisory Council deems that the current monetary conditions are adequate to meet Bank of Albania's inflation target in the medium term. The present interest rates and liquidity situation in the economy provide simultaneously the necessary monetary stimulus to boost domestic demand. Let me now proceed with an overview of the economic developments and key issues discussed at today’s meeting. *** According to INSTAT data, economic activity in Albania increased 1.6% in 2012. The Albanian economy showed signs of weakness during the past year, reflecting an overall uncertainty in the internal and external environment. Nonetheless, against the backdrop of unfavourable developments, the main indicators of domestic and external balances remained within healthy parameters. During this period, inflation ranged within the Bank of Albania target band and indicators of banking system soundness improved. Maintaining these balances provides the right macroeconomic premises for sustainable and long-term growth.