Should such barriers actually be introduced, there would be a negative impact on world trade that could affect an economy, like Spain's, whose recovery has been largely export-led. In the same vein, uncertainty about the implications of the United Kingdom leaving the EU remains high, in a setting in which the Spanish economy has significant exposure to this country in terms of services exports and financial ties. This uncertainty is also affected by the context of low returns in Europe's financial system and of the fragility of certain institutions. On the domestic front, several factors of vulnerability persist. One of them arises from the level of public indebtedness (which I will refer to later) and that of certain segments of the household and corporate sectors, which entails high reliance on foreign saving and represents a source of weakness in the face of possible increases in the cost of borrowing. Also, despite efficiency improvements, our economy remains highly sensitive to potential increases in commodities prices, particularly, oil prices. From a medium-term perspective, the high structural component of the unemployment rate, an ageing population and low productivity are the main factors limiting the sustained growth of our economy. I shall now review the main features of the budget. Budgetary policy in 2017 The macroeconomic forecasts accompanying the draft State and Social Security Budgets for 2017 involve the prolongation of the current expansionary phase. Specifically, they estimate real GDP growth of 2.5%, accompanied by a recovery in prices, so that nominal GDP growth is slightly above 4%.

Preference of traditional channels of service provision over e-banking In terms of service distribution channel, brick banks still have competitive edge over click banks as consumers still prefer to conduct banking transaction with human contact at bank branches or sub-branches. E-banking is not yet well-accepted by consumers on account of: •  uncertainty surrounding accuracy of the services;  •  lack of transaction evidence that might be useful in case of dispute settlement; and  •  lack of knowledge among some retail customers. The use of automated teller machines is quite well-spread while the use of phone banking and Internet banking is still limited to a small fraction of customers. According to the survey, high-income retail customers tend to make use of phone banking and Internet banking more often than do low income customers. Usage of phone banking and Internet banking by corporate customers is still low, though  2  BIS Review 22/2004  large and medium corporate tend to use phone banking and Internet banking more often than do small corporate. Financial service needs expected in the next few years Due to the current low return on savings with commercial banks, both individual and corporate consumers revealed preference towards alternative saving instruments such as saving bonds and government bonds. As for financing, the needs expected by individual customers are those for the purposes of working capital, residential, education and business expansion, while those of corporate customers remain financing for long-term investment for business expansion and short-term working capital requirements.