On the other hand, employment in postal and telecommunications and the financial industry has fallen somewhat over the past ten years. According to national accounts figures, productivity growth in manufacturing in Norway was low in the 1990s, while it was high in the private service sector and the retail trade. Productivity growth in the private sector was higher in Norway than in the US through the 1990s, for example. High productivity growth in many service industries has contributed to this. The growth rates for the 1990s must to some extent be seen in connection with cyclical developments during this period which started with a recession and ended with a tendency towards overheating in the labour market at the end of the period. Productivity growth has been particularly strong in the retail sector, financial services and postal and telecommunications services. These are industries that have undergone extensive changes in structure, technology and market adaptation. It has not been as strong in transport and commercial services. These changes have been associated with productivity gains - and thereby higher wages and income growth - for larger groups. In addition, this has contributed to keeping inflation at a low level and spurring large new investment projects. This may also have amplified the strong expansion in the Norwegian economy at the end of the 1990s, which could imply that the sharp growth in services has contributed to the relatively high real rate of interest in Norway in recent years. We know that variations in productivity can influence the real exchange rate.

Unless there is a substantial nominal depreciation, the current high value of the Swiss franc will therefore continue. Growth in the M1, M2 and M3 monetary aggregates has been perceptibly weaker since summer; this is primarily attributable to the rise in long-term interest rates. Liquidity held by households and companies has nevertheless remained high. In the past, a sustained high level of liquidity generally pointed to inflation risks. As a result of the financial crisis, however, this correlation cannot currently be made. Thus, in recent years, the inflation rate has remained exceptionally low despite a high level of liquidity. At present, there are no signs of a rise in inflation in Switzerland. Our inflation forecast shows no risk of inflation whatsoever. In addition, surveys on inflation expectations reveal values that are consistent with our definition of price stability. This applies not only to short-term inflation expectations, but also to long-term horizons of up to ten years. Furthermore, production capacity in Switzerland is still underutilised, which also makes a rapid rise in inflation unlikely. SNB monetary policy In conclusion, I would like to look at the SNB’s monetary policy. Overall economic conditions have hardly changed since summer. Consequently, monetary policy remains a challenge for the SNB. Up to now, our economy has performed relatively well, considering the difficult international environment. And we have not had to enforce the minimum exchange rate with foreign currency purchases since September 2012. Financial markets expect short-term interest rates to stay very low worldwide for some time to come.