samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Core inflation indicators remained low and stable as unemployment rates and capacity utilization rates hovered below pre-crisis levels. Thus, inflation came down to 6.4 percent by the end of 2010, almost reaching the year-end inflation target of 6.5 percent. With the downward revision in food prices, the decline in inflation continued in the first quarter of 2011, and inflation rate was down to 3.99 percent in March 2011. BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  34. Core inflation indicator SCA-H (consumer price index excluding energy, unprocessed food, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold) increased 3.49 percent year-onyear while SCA-I (SCA-H excluding processed food) registered an all-time year-end low of 2.99 percent. In the first quarter of 2011, despite a slight upward movement, the annual rate of increase in core inflation indicators remained relatively low. 35. Although year-end inflation expectations fluctuated due to the volatile course of food prices throughout 2010, medium-term expectations remained basically unchanged. As of the first quarter of 2011, the 24-month ahead inflation expectation stands at 6.29 percent, hovering slightly above our medium-term target of 5 percent. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  36. Inflation may rise in the short term due to lagged effects of oil prices and base effect. I would hereby like to remind you that we will be more extensively providing the public with updated evaluations and forecasts on the medium-term inflation outlook along with possible risks and policy measures, in the Inflation Report to be published on April 28, 2011. Distinguished Guests, 37.

What do you think explains such divergence: the fiscal situation, growth rates or redenomination risk? First, I do not want make comparisons between Spain and Italy. But focusing on Italy, I think the main problem has been very low growth. You have not recovered the level of GDP that you had in 2008. What do you think is the reason for that? I think there are two elements. The first is the extremely high level of public debt, which is a sword of Damocles hanging over your head. Second, there is a problem with structural reforms. But there are pros and cons in the Italian economy. The cons are slow growth, public debt, a lack of structural reforms and so low productivity growth. But Italy also has some advantages that we have to acknowledge. The first is that it has a current account surplus. The net investment position is good, and that reduces the vulnerability of the economy. And when one looks at the country’s budgetary track record, it has not been bad because it has had a primary surplus almost every year. This is not something that is very easy to achieve, so it’s a very good track record, especially when compared with other countries. So we come back to the problem of slow growth, which immediately leads us on to structural reforms, barriers to market entry, labour 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  market efficiency… These are the kinds of things that are sometimes a little bit overlooked.
The decline in natural rates has shrunk the space for interest rate policy owing to the existence of a lower bound on nominal interest rates, thus making it harder for central banks to achieve our inflation aims. Climate change will likely affect the natural interest rate, but it is not obvious in which direction. On the one hand, it could (further) depress natural rates through negative effects on productivity, such as the impact of higher temperatures on labour supply and the destruction of capital stemming from natural disasters. However, the transition towards a more sustainable economy will require substantial investment in green technologies, which may push real rates up. Clearly, more analysis will be needed before we have better answers for the implications of climate change on the economy and on monetary policy. And, in this regard, we have to step up our efforts, at both the Banco de España and the Eurosystem, to develop the tools and models needed for such an analysis. In addition, climate change will affect the risks of the assets held on our balance sheets. Monetary policy implementation exposes us to such risks directly through holdings of assets and indirectly through collateral pledged by counterparties. In this regard, and very much related to my previous comments on the implications of climate change for the financial sector, central banks also have to step up their efforts to incorporate climate change into their risk management models and frameworks.

And, while we are working hard to improve available information, we lack sufficient historical depth to be able to use the past as a guide to estimate future developments. In addition, there is no previous experience of structural changes of this magnitude, which also require a very long-term perspective, and where the presence of non-linearities and irreversible tipping points are likely, conditioning the methodologies to be used. And there is limited research, and accompanying data, that explore how climate risks feed into the financial risks faced by banks. In this context, many supervisory and/or prudential authorities are opting to use stress tests and scenario analysis. 1  As a result, we should accept that efforts to translate climate-related risks into quantifiable financial risks are in their early stages. And we will have to step up our efforts to address these problems and limitations. It’s also crucial that these efforts are coordinated at the global level, given the global dimension of the risks and the potential spillovers that can arise through interconnections between the real and financial sectors. In this regard, in the case of banks, at the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) level we are planning to conduct a “gap analysis” to identify areas in the current Basel Framework where climate-related financial risks may not be adequately addressed or are not captured. This gap analysis will be comprehensive in nature, and will cover regulatory, supervisory and disclosure elements. Building on the analysis, we plan to explore practical solutions to address any identified gaps.
The Federal Reserve believes that the goals of agency action and legislative change should be (1) to ensure that supervisory agencies have access to high-quality and timely data that are organized and standardized so as to enhance their regulatory missions, and (2) to make such data available in appropriately usable form to other government agencies and private analysts so that they can conduct their own analyses and raise their own concerns about financial trends and developments. In my testimony this morning I will first review the data collection and analysis activities of the Federal Reserve that are relevant to systemic risk monitoring and explain why we believe additional data should be collected by regulatory authorities with responsibility for financial stability. Next I will set forth some principles that we believe should guide efforts to achieve the two goals I have just noted. Finally, I will describe current impediments to these goals and suggest some factors for the Congress to consider as it evaluates potential legislation to improve the monitoring and containment of systemic risk. 12  BIS Review 16/2010  The Federal Reserve and macro-prudential supervision The Federal Reserve has considerable experience in data collection and reporting in connection with its regulation and supervision of financial institutions, monetary policy deliberations, and lender-of-last-resort responsibilities. The Federal Reserve has made large investments in quantitative and qualitative analysis of the U.S. economy, financial markets, and financial institutions.

That is, data on particular markets and institutions should be collected whenever possible by the regulators who ultimately are responsible for the safety and soundness of the institutions or for the functioning of those markets. Regulators with supervisory responsibilities for particular financial firms and markets are more likely to understand the relevance of particular forms of standardized data for risk management and supervisory oversight. For example, supervisors regularly evaluate the ability of individual firms’ own risk measures, such as internal ratings for loans, and of liquidity and counterparty credit risks, to signal potential problems. As a result, these supervisors have the expertise needed to develop new reporting requirements that would be standardized across firms and could be aggregated. Third, greater standardization of data than exists today is required. Standardized reporting to regulators in a way that allows aggregation for effective monitoring and analysis is imperative. In addition, the data collection effort itself should encourage the use of common reporting systems across institutions, markets, and investors, which would generally enhance efficiency and transparency. Even seemingly simple changes, such as requiring the use of a standardized unique identifier for institutions (or instruments), would make surveillance and reporting substantially more efficient. Fourth, the data collected and the associated reporting standards and protocols should enable better risk management by the institutions themselves and foster greater market discipline by investors.
This occurs through a wide range of institutions including bank holding companies, banks, and other firms supervised by the Federal Reserve System.1 In that context, a healthy bank maintains a strong balance sheet, measured by conventional metrics like capital, liquidity and asset quality; has a durable business model that generates a sustainable stream of earnings commensurate with a properly-defined risk profile; and has the appropriate controls in place that include, among other things, a robust risk management framework, a strong audit function, and effective oversight by the board of directors. All of these factors make a financial institution stronger and lower the chance that a shock such as an unexpected deterioration of credit quality or operational loss would drive the firm into insolvency, result in a loss of confidence by the firm’s creditors, counterparties, investors or customers, or force the firm to curtail its core activities. That is, a healthy firm is more resilient. This is true for financial institutions of all sizes and represents a baseline supervisory goal. I should emphasize that resiliency is not the ultimate aim, but rather a means to broader policy objectives. A resilient firm, for example, is more likely to provide a sustainable flow of financial services—broadly defined to include credit intermediation, payments, and risk transfer—through the cycle and across a range of possible macroeconomic outcomes; a resilient firm is less likely to harm the economy or consumers through excessive risk-taking; and a resilient firm is less likely to put taxpayer funds at risk.

Other countries were later incorporated into the benchmark portfolio. In 2007, small companies were included in the benchmark portfolio. Today, the Fund has equity holdings in 8,000 companies in almost 50 different countries. The bond portfolio was expanded from 10 to 18 countries in 1998. Since 2002, the Fund has gradually moved into the corporate bond market and mortgage-backed securities. Chart: Fund returns In 1998, analyses indicated that returns would be higher than achieved to date. It should be noted that the Fund is nevertheless considerably larger than expected 10–12 years ago. High oil and gas prices have resulted in substantial transfers to the Fund. Sizeable returns on oil in the ground have more than offset low returns on securities. Since equity investment started in 1998, the annual average real return on the Fund has been a good 3 per cent after expenses 8 . This figure is partly a reflection of the financial crisis. The Fund’s short history includes a lost decade in the stock market, with two periods of sharp decline. During financial crises of the type we have recently experienced, the government as investor has no place to hide. Even though it is less visible, the return on government real investments in Norway is also lower during economic downturns. The estimated size of Norway’s offshore oil wealth naturally varies widely with oil and gas prices and frequent changes in petroleum reserve estimates.
19.07.2018  Address on taking up office as a member of the Council of State Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Madame Chair of the Council, Council Members, Lawyers, ladies and gentlemen, First I would like to thank Mr. Alberto Aza and Mr. Juan Velarde for having agreed to be my sponsors in the ceremony today. It is a real honour for me to take up office as an ex officio member of the Council of State, the highest-ranking advisory body of the Government and a time-honoured institution in Spain. According to the Spanish Royal Academy dictionary, an “adviser” is someone who gives an opinion on what they consider beneficial or necessary for the advisee. It is indeed an important aspect of the functions of the Banco de España, in accordance with its law on autonomy, to advise the Government on economic and financial matters. From this dual status as a member of the Council of State and as governor of the Banco de España, allow me to take the opportunity here to briefly reflect on what are the main challenges facing the Spanish economy. In the past five years our economy has seen sharp growth in activity and a marked reduction in the unemployment rate, enabling a gradual correction of the imbalances built up before and during the economic crisis.

Speeches 25 Aug 2022  Welcome Remarks at the HKIMR-ADB-BIS Joint Workshop on "Monetary Policy Spillovers" Edmond Lau, Deputy Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority 1. Good morning, Mr Park (Chief Economist and Director General of the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, Asian Development Bank (ADB)), Mr Zhang (Chief Representative for Asia and the Pacific, Bank for International Settlements (BIS)), ladies and gentlemen. It is my pleasure to welcome you to this Workshop on monetary policy spillovers, jointly organised by the ADB, the BIS and the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR). We are honoured by the impressive list of panellists, discussants and speakers today, who will share their expertise on this timely and important topic. 2. Since early this year, central banks around the world have tightened monetary policy to fight raging inflation, with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) being particularly assertive as it tries to cool down the unwelcome rise in inflation and avoid inflation expectations from getting de-anchored. As global financial conditions tightened, financial markets rattled and many emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced capital outflows given their narrowing interest rate differentials against the US. The crux of the latest situation is, will such gyrations in asset prices and capital flows pose a threat to EMEs’ financial stability? 3. As far as emerging Asia (EM Asia) is concerned, the latest situation does not seem too bad.
Comparability is key, because it allows policymakers to assess how different proportionate regulation approaches affect intended outcomes in different jurisdictions. The goal here is to identify and disseminate tested and proven proportionate regulation best practices, well supported by empirical evidence. The evidence on proportionality in practice facilitates regulators and financial institutions in implementing innovative solutions because they have the confidence that there would be no adverse unintended consequences to financial stability and integrity. Empirical data can also support Standard-Setting Bodies in designing differentiated guidance for financial services for low-income households and SMEs. While the importance of data collection is obvious, there tends to be under investment and an ‘attention deficit’ among decision makers on such a critical matter. Second, it is crucial to build the capacity of regulators, supervisors and financial institutions so that the ecosystem has the requisite capacity to implement proportionality in practice. The Basel Range of Practice Survey highlights supervisors’ unmet demand for capacity building, as only 30% of supervisors globally had received training on supervision of banking services for the low income segment. The Basel Meeting with Standard-Setting Bodies on 2 October 2014 chaired by Her Majesty Queen Maxima, the United Nations Secretary General’s Special Advocate, also highlighted the importance of technical assistance programmes to build up local knowledge and capacity of national supervisors, so that experience in applying proportionality can be shared.

Of importance, this Symposium will culminate in an Outcome Statement that captures the actionable recommendations from deliberations among subject matter experts and key stakeholders over the next two days. It is my hope that the Outcome Statement will at least identify 5 practical and easily implementable suggestions and the statement will be adopted by all participants, and provide us with a clear way forward to execute and deliver the recommendations on “Proportionality in Practice” that make it a reality and make a difference for the 2 billion individuals that remain unbanked. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Finally, I would like to also convey my sincere appreciation to our co-host, the Alliance for Financial Inclusion and Toronto Center, for all their contributions to this Symposium. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Accelerating the migration to electronic payments in Malaysia Remarks by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the inaugural Malaysian E-Payments Excellence Awards (MEEA, Kuala Lumpur, 4 April 2016. *  *  *  It is my pleasure to be at this inaugural Malaysian E-Payments Excellence Awards (MEEA) organised by MyClear. This event is important as it recognises the contribution made by the financial services industry and the business community in accelerating the country’s migration to electronic payments (e-payments). Safe and efficient payment systems are one of the key building blocks of a productive, competitive and successful nation. They provide the foundation for monetary and financial stability as well as facilitate the overall economic development of the country. In this regard, the continuous development to enhance the payment systems throughout the years for this purpose has provided Malaysia’s businesses and individuals with reliable, secure and efficient payment infrastructure to serve as a productive and efficient means for businesses to conduct their day to day economic activities. Premised on these efforts is the close collaboration among all stakeholders in the payment system value chain, including the regulators, financial institutions, businesses and consumers. A conducive payment ecosystem would not only enhance the nation’s efficiency and productivity, but also create new opportunities and new sources of growth to position the economy as an attractive destination for global investors. My remarks this evening will focus on four broad areas: i.

BNM will continue to work with the industry and act as a catalyst to foster a conducive payment ecosystem. MyClear as the operator of the nation’s key financial market infrastructures would coordinate the industry efforts in infrastructure enhancements. Financial institutions should continue to intensify their efforts in providing innovative and value-adding financial solutions that meet the needs of their individual and corporate customers. Businesses and consumers, on the other hand, should embrace and integrate e-payments and other digital financial services into their daily activities to benefit from enhanced efficiency and productivity. The symbiotic relationship among all the stakeholders will drive the transformation and modernisation of Malaysia’s payment ecosystem. A safe, reliable and efficient payment ecosystem will support the country’s economic growth, competitiveness and productivity. Let me conclude by congratulating MyClear and the winners of today’s awards ceremony from both the financial and business communities. I hope today’s event is the stepping stone and would inspire bigger achievement in our endeavour to accelerate the migration to epayments. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
If the world involves three layers of complexity, then missing a layer will lead to a significant underestimation of risk. This, too, has a parallel with the pre-crisis situation where the macroprudential layer was essentially ignored by both micro-prudential and macro-economic policymakers. This led both to under-estimate the policy risk they faced. Pulling this together, what are the public policy implications which follow from this complex system of systems perspective? First, it underscores the importance of accurate data, and timely mapping, of each layers in a system of systems. This is especially important when these layers are themselves complex. Granular data is needed to capture the interactions within and between these complex sub-systems. Second, modelling of each of these layers, and their interaction with other layers, is likely to be important, both for understanding system risks and dynamics and for calibrating potential policy responses to them. Third, in controlling these risks, something akin to the Tinbergen Rule is likely to apply. There is likely to need to be at least as many policy instruments as there are complex subcomponents of a system of systems if risk is to be monitored and managed effectively. Put differently, an under-identified complex system of systems is likely to result in a loss of control, both system-wide and for each of the layers. The architecture of macro-financial systems How, then, does this theory relate to real-world, macro-financial systems? These systems are likely to contain many moving parts.

We are fortunate in having been able to grab him for a couple of hours today while he is briefly passing through Hong Kong. It is my pleasure to welcome him and to join with you all in the launch of this seminar, which will, I hope, be the first of many organised by the MPC over the coming months and years. 8. Finally, let me record my gratitude and congratulations to all the Committee members of the MPC for the excellent work they have put into the reconstruction of the Committee, and my thanks to everyone here for supporting this event today. 2  BIS Review 3/2001