samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
When anyone could log on to receive market information and trade in real time, wouldn’t traders flee the hurley burley and relocate to other, quieter and cheaper financial centres or even out of cities altogether? What seems to have happened is the opposite. The reducing costs of collating information and trading at a distance have led to operations relocating to London and the City becoming an even more important cluster for financial activity. The technology which could have allowed the dispersion of business has instead allowed greater concentration. 12 So whereas in 1997 the largest share of market turnover of Frankfurt’s Eurex market came from traders based in Germany (over 80%), the largest share in 2005 came from the UK (with over 45%). As more assets can be traded remotely, this may further drive the growth of centres like London with large pools of skilled financial workers. The growth of European capital markets relative to traditional commercial banking should reinforce that process. Historically, European and equity markets have been smaller relative to their economies than in the US. With around some $ trillion in assets, euro-zone financial markets are still significantly smaller than the $ trillion in the US. But Europe is closing the gap. In 2005 the  12  HM Treasury, “The location of financial activity and the euro”, 2003. BIS Review 29/2007  5  eurozone’s financial stock grew by over 20%, compared with around 6% in the US.

On the plus side, the crucial and unique economic advantage of monetary union is nominal exchange rate certainty within the Eurozone - which takes over half UK exports. I’m not talking just about reasonable exchange rate stability - which might result over time from each country pursuing disciplined macro-economic policies in parallel. I’m talking about nominal exchange rate certainty for the indefinite future. That very real economic advantage is well understood in the UK. It is particularly well understood by those businesses in the UK that export to, or compete with, businesses in the Eurozone, especially given the euro’s unexpected - and puzzlingly persistent - weakness since its inception at the beginning of last year. On that ground alone many of them, who are under intense competitive pressure as a result of sterling’s excessive strength against the euro, though not against other major currencies, would see our joining the single currency as an advantage - provided, of course, the exchange rate at which we joined was fixed at an appropriate level, which most of them - and indeed most analysts looking at the economic fundamentals - think should be substantially lower than at present. At a broader macro-economic level the potential benefit of joining - as a result of greater transparency of costs and prices and lower transaction costs - leading to greater competition and more efficient economic resource allocation is well understood.
AI and machine learning, when applied to the myriad of data that supervisors have, offer the possibility of real-time customised risk assessments and early warning capabilities. This can inform policy interventions in times of heightened risk, and help to preserve financial stability. To this end, the BIS Innovation Hub Singapore Centre, is spearheading a RegTech and SupTech project to pilot the development of an integrated regulatory reporting platform and data analytics utility. This allows supervisors to assess microprudential and macroprudential risks by applying AI and machine learning tools to unstructured data as well as to big datasets. The application of such tools is enabled by transforming regulatory reporting to be based on the mapping of granular data to a common data model, moving away from fixed templates. This integrated solution, which has the potential to be scaled across supervisory authorities, will be a tangible example of a global public good that the BIS Innovation Hub can deliver for the benefit of the central banking and supervisory communities. Leading Innovation 6. Having touched on the ‘why’ of innovation, let me share some views on ‘how’ central banks can support and facilitate innovation by the industry. The central banking community has already been generally facilitative towards innovation while managing the inherent risks. In fact, some central banks including MAS have deliberately provided room for emerging technologies to be explored deeply, and their benefits and risks to be properly understood. We have avoided having regulation front-run innovation, so as not to stifle new ideas.

As conditions in the labor market start to improve, workers are more willing to quit a job to search for a better job. While the quit rate has been unchanged at 1.5 percent for the past 8 months, quits as a proportion of total separations increased to 49 percent in October from 41 percent a year earlier. Also encouraging, employment in Temporary Help Services has increased by 494,000 since September 2009. Firms often hire temporary workers as a precursor to adding permanent staff. Finally, initial claims for unemployment insurance continue to edge downward, indicating that the risk of losing a job is diminishing (Chart 3). There are risks associated with every economic forecast. Some risks are to the upside, while others are to the downside. An important downside risk for this year is the housing market. Recall that the housing market was the epicenter of the financial shock that resulted in the Great Recession. Unlike the real economy, which has shown recent signs of strengthening, housing markets showed some tentative signs of life early last year that gave way to further weakening later in the year (Chart 4). This pattern likely reflected in part the conclusion of tax credits supporting housing purchases. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Of particular note, house prices increased moderately early last year, but resumed their decline as the year came to a close. In October, the CoreLogic national house price index was down 3.9 percent from a year earlier (Chart 5).
Enhancing the range of tools for monetary policy implementation Even in an environment of abundant reserves, the Desk’s operating objective remains the same: to maintain control over the policy rate as directed by the FOMC in support of the Committee’s monetary policy objectives. That said, the means by which we achieve that end may require alternative approaches. For the purpose of these remarks, I’m assuming that  8  Antoine Martin, James McAndrews, and David Skeie, “Bank Lending in Times of Large Bank Reserves”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 497, May 2011, revised June 2013. 9  Seth B. Carpenter, Jane E. Ihrig, Elizabeth C. Klee, Daniel W. Quinn, and Alexander H. Boote, “The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet and Earnings: A Primer and Projections”, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Finance and Economics Discussion Series, no. 2013-01, January 2013, revised September 2013. 10  The October 2013 Survey of Primary Dealers indicates median expectations for a domestic securities portfolio that peaks at $ trillion after an end to asset purchases at the conclusion of 2014. The survey did not ask respondents to provide expectations for the peak level of reserve balances, but reserve balances would inevitably rise along with the larger expansion of securities holdings.

Used together with IOER, it may strengthen the floor for short-term interest rates and, with it, the Federal Reserve’s control of money market rates, by surmounting the competitive and balance sheet frictions seen in money markets and by extending the central bank’s payment of interest to a wider universe of relevant counterparties. Improved control over the level of money market rates and reduced volatility of short-term interest rates could enhance the flexibility of the Desk’s operational tools, ultimately allowing for a more robust and effective implementation of the FOMC’s policy directives both during the rate normalization period and when there is a very large balance sheet. Thank you. Desk or its clearing banks. The initial fixed rate for the operation was set at 1 basis point, which was below current market rates; it was subsequently raised periodically in 1-basis point increments to a level of 5 basis points, which has been in effect since November 19. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches
I am delighted to be here with colleagues from leading British investment banks and the London Stock Exchange: examples of UK financial institutions supporting the needs of global clients and delivering the type of open financial flows the global economy needs. Internationally the UK books more international banking business than anywhere else and over 40% of global foreign exchange and interest rate derivative business. We are also home to the second largest global asset management and fourth largest insurance centre. At the Bank of England, we want to support the financial sector to realise the full promise of new technology, so it is deployed safely and for the benefit of our people. We see our role as providing robust but dynamic regulation that is appropriate for emerging innovations. In June, we published a series of commitments setting out how the Bank could support the economy and the financial system of the future.1 We know that all of these action areas will benefit from collaboration with international partners and learning from international best practice. Today, I want to use this opportunity to explain what steps the Bank of England has taken in its approach to Fintech, and share a few lessons that we have learnt along the way. These lessons touch on the themes of openness and integration we have been discussing.

We are seeing the benefits of being open to new ideas, open to new entrants and open to developing our own capabilities at the Bank of England. These developments hold the promise of integrating new firms and new consumers, such as the SMEs we believe could benefit from greater and safer access to finance. 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  5  International  However, I want to turn now to an area where in my view we have seen less cause for optimism. At the international level, we have not yet seen the same benefits of growing openness and markets that are more integrated. In her incoming speech, IMF Managing Director Georgieva pointed out that fissures were emerging across the international economic and financial system, including in financial technology.3  Take payments - the last decade has seen a transformation in the global payments landscape, with users now finding it easier to pay for goods than ever before. However, the underlying technology varies dramatically by region. Today we use contactless cards in the UK, mobile money in Africa, e-money in China and UPI in India. These differences mean we will have to work harder to find solutions to the system of cross-border payments as our systems are not naturally interoperable. What can we, as policy makers and private sector participants, do to ease this trend? To conclude let me suggest two priorities. The first priority is simple – talk to and learn from each other, as we are doing here today.
For example, around 10% of the value of mortgage lending in England is on properties in flood risk zones.11 Some UK banks also have large direct exposures to regions that are particularly vulnerable to the physical risks from climate change such as South and South-East Asia. At the same time, the system will need to manage the risks associated with the economic transition that will be associated with reducing carbon emissions. Over 190 countries have committed to limit the global temperature rise to well below 2°C. The UK government is targeting a 100% reduction in net emissions by 2050.12  The transition to a carbon neutral economy will see material structural changes in the UK and world economies. Some assets may become stranded: if global warming is to be limited to well below 2°C, close to 80% of remaining coal reserves and half of remaining oil reserves would become un-burnable.13 Many other sectors, which ultimately rely on carbon emissions, will see their profitability and businesses challenged. We cannot allow the financial system to be an obstacle to making the transition because it can’t deal with it. See Chart 1 in speech by Mark Carney (April 2018): ‘A Transition in Thinking and Action’. Sources: Munich Reinsurance Company, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. 10 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2018), ‘Global Warming of 1.5°C ’.

This prevention is geared to establishing instruments whose effects are as broad-based as possible, in other words, instruments that are independent of the specific causes that lead to crises. One general pattern in financial crises is that market and investor confidence plays a central role. 2 In general, when a bubble is being formed, soaring price trends are initially explained in “rational” terms. In the recent crisis, for instance, developments in the US housing markets were, for a long time, regarded as a logical and unproblematic consequence of state support measures or of innovation in the form of new financial products, as well as the constant inflow of capital from Asia. 3 However, when the first symptoms of a crisis become evident, the focus moves directly to other aspects. Which market participants are exposed? How heavily are they exposed? How can one’s own assets be safeguarded in the best possible way? The irrational optimism of the previous period is followed by a rapid loss of confidence and then by a flight to security. A broad-based loss of confidence of this kind can sometimes result in serious liquidity problems, even for fundamentally well-backed banks, thereby triggering far-reaching second-round effects. 4  2  Cf. Akerlof/Shiller (2008): Animal Spirits. 3  Cf. Reinhard/Rogoff (2008): Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison. 4  Cf. Acharya et al (2009): Manufacturing Tail Risk. A Perspective on the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009.
It is important, but especially if you have been tied to the euro for a very long period of time. It is of crucial importance that a country’s economic policy mix as a whole is credible and consistent. Based on our own experience, we can say that much of the impact was already felt even before formal euro accession in terms of the investment flows and in terms of the restoration of confidence. Finally, what have been some of the experience over the last more than two years? The precise impact of the adoption of the euro is very hard to determine as there were so many other things going on, most notably the global financial crisis. Future generations of economists, with the benefit of hindsight and data will be better placed than us to make a firm evaluation of costs and benefits. Nevertheless, we can point to several positive developments which appear to be related to the broader agenda of reforms and policies, including euro adoption. Most notably, the Estonian economy has successfully weathered a fragile global economy and come through the uncertainties within the euro area. Over the last few years, our export sector has led the economy to a path of relatively rapid and well-balanced growth. That has, in turn, created the scope for a still quite significant contribution from domestic demand to growth. Indicators of better balance include a much lower current account deficit, better consistency between productivity and wages and lower private sector indebtedness.

The reduction in costs stemming from the equalized charges for domestic and cross-border settlements has brought measurable savings. Homeowners have benefited from the elimination of the financial risks which come from earning income in one currency and repaying their mortgage in another currency. Consumers and businesses have benefited from being able to easily compare prices, and from the reduction in currency conversion costs. Finally, let me make a few remarks about inflation. Fears are regularly expressed about the possible inflationary impacts of euro adoption. Our evidence suggests that this was positive but very small and one-off, similar to what was seen in older euro area members where euro introduction effects accounted for about 0.2–0.3% one-off increase in prices, mostly in services sectors, but no measurable effect on inflationary expectations or in terms of core inflation. Over the past few years, our inflation has indeed been higher but we believe that this can be largely explained by a range of other factors not directly related to euro adoption, including the catching-up effect, commodities prices, the specific timing of changes in tax policy, and so on. Most importantly, the ECB has built up a very strong track record in keeping inflation in the euro area near our targeted level, and our commitment to continue on this path is very strong. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  In conclusion, Estonia’s two-year euro area experience has affirmed our belief that our place is within the euro area, not outside.
Svein Gjedrem: Turbulence in credit markets – mortgage financing at home and abroad Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the annual meeting of the Norwegian Savings Banks Association, Hamar, 11 October 2007. The text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The speech does not contain assessments of the economic situation or the monetary stance. *  *  *  Financial markets in different countries have become more closely interwoven over the past few years. New participants have appeared and new and more complex products to diversify risk have been introduced ― across sectors and across national borders. Some of these products were put to the test for the first time during this autumn’s turbulence in credit and money markets. Triggered by problems in the subprime mortgage market in the US, the turbulence quickly spread to other financial market segments. In my remarks today, I will try to describe the driving forces behind these developments and the contagion effects on the Norwegian money and credit markets, with a discussion of the lessons to be drawn. Turbulence in the financial sector  The US subprime mortgage market has expanded sharply in recent years. These mortgages usually have low interest rates at the beginning of the loan term followed by higher interest rates after a period. Subprime mortgages are based on expectations of a rise in house prices. Borrowers can maintain their debt-servicing capacity by refinancing their mortgage when house prices rise.

(b) Balance sheet consolidation and a reduction in NPLs Continuing high levels of non-performing loans in some euro area countries pose a number of problems, since they constrain banks’ profitability and generate provisioning needs that weigh on the level of own funds, and even a viability risk for the most fragile banks. But since the introduction of the SSM, large European banks have overall significantly reduced their outstanding NPLs. This outstanding amount reached EUR 587 billion in March 2019, compared with over EUR 1,000 billion at the end of 2014. French banks, for their part, have always outperformed their European peers: their NPL ratio has always been below the European average, now standing at 2.8% (against 3.1% for the EU). Furthermore, French banks consistently displayed an NPL coverage ratio of more than 50% over the December 2009-June 2019 period, well above the 45% average for European banks. (c) Results of the recent stress tests Prudential stress tests are simulation exercises designed to assess the impact of a given economic and financial scenario on an institution’s prudential situation, in order to test its financial soundness. During the crisis, they were first used as a crisis management tool to identify the most vulnerable banks for which recapitalisation measures were needed. Their role then evolved into an essential and flexible tool for the supervision, oversight and management of risks and vulnerabilities of banks considered individually (microprudential supervision) as well as for financial stability purposes (macroprudential supervision).
4 Daniel Awrey and David Kershaw, “Toward a More Ethical Culture in Finance: Regulatory and Governance  Strategies,” in Nicholas Morris and David Vines, eds., Capital Failure: Rebuilding Trust in Financial Services, 284 (2014) (“While codes of conduct, ethics, and best practice can be drafted and held up as identifying desirable behaviors, the norms these codes purport to reflect may be overpowered by other countervailing influences.”). 5 Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru, “The Market for Financial Advisor Misconduct,” Working Paper 22050,  National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2016. 6 Gillian Tett, The Silo Effect, 45 (2016). 7 Ignazio Angeloni, Ethics in finance: a banking supervisory perspective, Remarks at the Conference on “The New  Financial Regulatory System: Challenges and Consequences for the Financial Sector,” September 26, 2014. 8 David Walker, Trust and Trustworthiness in Banks and Bankers, Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New  York, October 20, 2014. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

1/5  Ladies and gentlemen, Policymakers must take on the challenges of developing our financial systems with a great sense of urgency. Thus far we have seen integration of the ACMECS economies on various fronts—through economic connectivity in trade and investment and through people-to-people connectivity in migration of labor and tourism. Yet, financial connectivity in our region lags behind developments in other sectors and should be prioritized so that it does not hinder further economic integration. Fortunately, today we have the opportunity to leapfrog development in our financial systems and regional financial connectivity because of rapid advancement in technology. Not at any point in history have powerful technologies been so affordable and accessible. For instance, the costs of industrial robots and smartphones are now 30 times and 50 times cheaper than those with similar features just ten years ago. Moreover, there are a diverse and extensive number of software applications as well as know-hows available to satisfy businesses and consumers; many of which can be accessed online and obtained free-of-charge. All of these have allowed for greater adoption of mobile devices as well as emergence of new financial technology platforms. Looking around our region, there are many exciting developments taking place that can enhance our financial systems and strengthen their productivity, inclusivity, and immunity. For instance: a.