samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But am I painting too black a picture? What is the outlook for Icelanders’ foreign debts and re-financing needs in the next few years? This subject has been discussed repeatedly in the recent past, and opinions vary. Some go so far as to maintain that the economy will collapse under the weight of its debt and the Treasury will become insolvent. Fortunately, a careful analysis of the available information reveals this turn of events to be unlikely. There is still considerable uncertainty about what the Icelandic economy’s net external position will be once the air clears after the fall of the banks. Currently underway is a process involving writing down the private sector’s external assets and liabilities, with offsetting transactions in many instances because of bankruptcy proceedings. According to official balance of payments figures, Iceland’s net external liabilities amounted to 5.6 trillion krónur at the end of 2009, or nearly four times GDP, and about 0.4 trillion krónur without the failed banks, or just under one-third of GDP. The underlying position that can be expected to emerge once the dust has settled will probably lie somewhere between the position excluding the failed banks and the position that reigned in Iceland during the decade before the crisis. The exact result will depend, among other things, on the distribution of domestic and foreign creditors in the creditor group and the classification of the old banks’ assets as domestic and foreign. The Central Bank has made regular efforts to assess this.

In recent years, extraordinary measures by many central banks have pushed down long-term rates. Over a longer time horizon, the factors behind the decline in interest rates are more structural in nature. The savings glut in 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  emerging economies, particularly China and oil exporting countries, has been one important factor. Savings have probably also increased in many countries as a result of demographic developments and a more uneven distribution of income. At the same time, investments in many advanced economies have been low, possibly reflecting prospects for low returns on investment in productive capital. In the wake of the financial crisis, conditions of a more cyclical nature have also contributed to the fall in interest rates. While deleveraging has pulled up savings, greater uncertainty may have dampened the willingness to invest. These developments have consequences for monetary policy. The level of the real interest rate that is consistent with balanced developments in the economy is usually referred to as the neutral interest rate. The difference between the actual real interest rate and the neutral real interest rate provides an indication of whether monetary policy is expansionary or contractionary. A real interest rate that is below the neutral rate stimulates economic growth, while a higher real interest rate dampens growth. The neutral interest rate is not directly observable. Central banks must nevertheless form a perception of how expansionary or contractionary monetary policy is.
Trade unions helped workers by campaigning to protect their rights, improve their conditions and boost their bargaining power in the workplace. They also provided direct financial support to unemployed workers, through an early form of unemployment insurance, to smooth the income consequences for workers of job loss. The National Insurance Act (1911) and the Beveridge Report (1942) subsequently made this a responsibility of the state and put it on a comprehensive footing. th  This was part of a wider-ranging shift in the role played by the state in society from the 17 century onwards. th  State spending as a proportion of national income rose from around 1% in the 16 century to around 12% in th  th  th 39  the 18 , 14% in the 19 and 33% in the 20 . It financed social infrastructure of various kinds supporting  those facing greatest hardship. This ranged from social housing to healthcare to income support. Its effect was to cap the downside, recessionary risk to individuals, economies and societies. 40  Another form of institutional support came from the creation of state-owned and/or central banks. The Bank th  of England was set up at the end of the 17 century to manage the government’s debt and safeguard the nation’s currency and finances. Over the course of subsequent centuries, this role has expanded.

To many, financial planning can be a fairly complicated task. Identifying personal financial needs requires consideration of an impossibly wide array of factors, finding the right solutions for them even more so. For years, financial advisers have played the crucial role of condensing the vast technical complexities of finance into practical, reliable advice on a personal level. It is a role whose prominence I am certain can only grow with time, but only if it successfully adapts to a rapidly transforming financial and social landscape. In this connection and before elaborating further on the concept of a trust, I would like to draw your attention to three major trends that are shaping the industry as we speak. 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  First, demographic shifts. Malaysia is a relatively young nation. 40–50% of our workforce are aged between 21 to 35, also known as Gen Y. This remains a largely untapped market for financial advisory services, and for a reason – many individuals within this age group are skeptical of, or distrust financial advisers. According to a survey by the Asian Institute of Finance in 2015, only 37% of these individuals had sought advice from a financial adviser. Of this, only 26% trusted the advice they received. This is complicated by the fact that these are highly connected, tech-savvy individuals with broad access to online platforms that act as a primary source of information and advice.
Page 5 of 19 This chronic deficit has been shared by all governments and parties in power for over forty years, despite some temporary improvements in the late 1990s and early 2010s. Aside from the much greater 'ratchet effect' of spending in France than in other countries, this French malaise is reflected in – and partly explained by – two symptoms of a more political nature. Two symptoms of the French malaise First, we are multiplying the number of commitments to budgetary targets, but so far we never adhere to them. Management of public finances is deemed to have evolved into a more multi-year process - which is a good thing - with the adoption of public finance planning acts from 2009 onwards, but also as a result of the requirements of the EU Stability and Growth Pact since 1999. However, when it comes to executing the process, the comparison with Germany is cruel indeed: our German neighbours systematically outperform their forecasts and commitments, while we systematically do worse than ours. Page 6 of 19  These persistent and significant shortcomings severely damage our credibility in Europe and in the eyes of all French citizens. I would like to applaud the determination currently being shown at the "Assises des finances publiques" (round table conference on the public finances) in Bercy. Some people are calling for more ambitious targets, but a first real revolution would be to stick to existing ones.

Conference at the Académie des sciences morales et politiques Paris, 19 June 2023 Governance of public expenditure and public services: is there any hope left? Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France  Page 1 of 19 Dear Chairman, Dear Permanent Secretary, Dear Academicians, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is an honour for me to speak before you today and I wish to warmly thank your Chairman and my esteemed predecessor, Jean-Claude Trichet. This year, your collective discussion focuses on the theme of "Good governance". Six years ago, at the invitation of Michel Pébereau, I had the opportunity to use the theme of "Reform" to reflect upon international financial regulations. Today, I will tackle a different aspect: good governance in the public sphere. I would like to thank a number of people who are committed to this cause and who have been kind enough to be here today. As the head of a public institution and a fervent supporter of the public service – and also as a citizen – I consider this to be an essential matter. France appears to be drifting towards a "strange defeat", or, at the very least, a gloomy resignation, reflected in constantly increasing government expenditure and public debt (I), together with diminishing intellectual investment in economic optimisation and public management strategies. (II) There is also a growing feeling that essential public services are continuing to deteriorate. In the face of this public crisis, is there any hope left?
The GPFG is to be managed within an adequate control and risk management framework and in a responsible and efficient manner with a high degree of transparency. The Bank pursues a variety of investment strategies. The strategies are complementary and aimed at delivering good returns over time. In 2018, the return was 0.3 percentage point lower than the GPFG’s benchmark index. Over the whole period since 1998 when Norges Bank established Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), the annual return has been 0.25 percentage point higher than the return on the benchmark index set by the Ministry of Finance. A cost-efficient management operation contributes to the aim of highest possible return. Management costs are low, measured as a share of capital under management and compared with other managers. In 2018, the return was weak both in absolute terms and relative to the benchmark index. In 2017, the return was 13.7 percent, as much as 0.7 percentage point higher than the benchmark index. The Executive Board is prepared for wide variations in return from year to year, and applies the principle that performance must be assessed over time. From that perspective, the return of the GPFG has been good and higher than the return on the benchmark index. In the report to the Storting on energy stocks, the Government intends to remove exploration and production companies from the GPFG’s benchmark index and investment universe.

That is in line with the intention in our advice from 2017 and will contribute to reducing the exposure of the state’s wealth to oil price risk. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  The report to the Storting on the Government Pension Fund provides for among other things the possibility of investing in unlisted renewable energy infrastructure within the environmental mandates. As we have indicated previously, Norges Bank will approach investment opportunities and build expertise gradually. Investments in unlisted infrastructure will be a topic for the Executive Board’s work on the new strategy plan to apply from 2020. On 10 April 2015, the Central Bank Law Commission was appointed. Precisely four years later, the Government put forth a proposal on a new central bank act. At that time, the Storting had already endorsed retaining Norges Bank as the operational manager of the GPFG. For Norges Bank, the proposal on a new central bank act entails a number of changes, such as increasing the capacity of Norges Bank’s Executive Board in the area of capital management. Norges Bank has already made considerable strides in adapting the internal organisation to the changes ensuing from the new central bank act. The main exposures that are decisive for the GPFG’s long-term performance are decided by the Ministry of Finance and anchored in the Storting. This year’s report to the Storting on the GPFG includes several measures to further develop the investment strategy. But the objective remains firm: The highest possible return at an acceptable risk.
The responses of central banks to the financial turmoil  Over the past four weeks – in particular following the collapse of Lehman Brothers – credit risk concerns have intensified and have led to additional disruptions in the functioning of money markets, not only in the United States, but also in the euro area and Europe in general. Central banks are taking all the necessary steps to stop the downward spiral, and recent actions have once again demonstrated their determination in this respect. In both “normal” and “turbulent” times, the primary objective of the Eurosystem’s open market operations is to keep the shorter rates, in particular, the overnight rate, as close as possible  BIS Review 123/2008  1  to the minimum bid rate. However, during the recent period of turbulence, open market operations have also aimed at ensuring the continued access of solvent banks to liquidity, notably by contributing to easing the impaired functioning of the money market. The Eurosystem intends to continue to follow this approach as long as necessary. From the first day of the financial market turbulence on 9 August 2007, in an environment of increased liquidity risk and in response to banks’ changed liquidity demand pattern, the ECB has achieved these objectives through making technical changes to the way in which it supplies liquidity in normal times, while also utilising the full latitude of its framework for monetary policy implementation.

It is such action, called for at the level of the international community three days ago in Washington by the G7, the IMFC and the G20, that the Europeans considered indispensable, particularly in the euro area last Sunday, with the adoption of a concerted European action plan. This plan has six dimensions: ensuring appropriate liquidity; facilitating the funding of banks through various means (guarantee, insurance or similar arrangements for new medium-term – up to five years – bank senior debt issuance); providing additional capital resources to financial institutions; recapitalisation of distressed banks; ensuring appropriate implementation of accounting rules; and enhancing cooperation among European countries. The very day after the meeting, namely yesterday, a large number of euro area countries displayed their implementation of the Eurogroup commitments at the level of the Heads of State and Government. I will not hide the fact that I am impressed by the degree of responsibility and decisiveness that was demonstrated last Sunday and this week in the euro area. I am impressed by the will of the countries that share the single currency not only to work together, but also very closely with the United Kingdom and all EU Member States. And I see that the new decisions taken in the United States are further reinforcing this very impressive implementation of the plan that has been approved by the international community. This is no time for complacency. Central banks will remain solid anchors of stability and confidence.
The model used for monetary policy of decisions being made by a committee made up of both Bank of England executives and independent experts has been expanded to financial stability with the creation of both a Financial Policy Committee and a Board of Prudential Regulation. As I have argued, those policy committees will be more effective if they have access to the broadest range of the Bank’s analysis and information and are as well informed as possible about each other’s reaction function. The now very wide range of the Bank’s responsibilities also creates a need to strengthen the oversight arrangements for the Bank as a whole. For delivery of our statutory objectives, the Bank is accountable to the public, through Parliament’s Treasury Committee. That accountability is being reinforced. Parliament has created an Oversight Committee of 8 non-executives who are in the Bank but not of the Bank. The Government has today announced the appointment of Anthony Habgood to lead the Bank’s Court of Directors and the Oversight Committee. I welcome the appointment of someone of his depth and breadth of corporate experience. Independent oversight by the committee he will chair can strengthen the Bank’s legitimacy and effectiveness. The Oversight Committee has access to internal papers, is able to observe meetings of policy committees, and is responsible for reviewing all aspects of the conduct of the Executive of the Bank, including the delivery of policy, the design of and adherence to rigorous processes and procedures, and the monitoring of our transparency and openness.

In the past year those promises have become realities with the statutory Financial Policy Committee (FPC) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) formally joining the Bank. The question now is how we use our powers to fulfil our responsibilities. In response, the Bank of England is today launching a transformative strategic plan to fulfil its broader mission. We have a new leadership team. We are setting out fifteen initiatives to reshape the institution. Behind that plan is a vision for the Bank that I want to set out this evening. It is: A Bank with many and varied responsibilities, but a single timeless mission; An institution that works as One Bank to exploit the synergies and complementarities across our policy functions; A Bank that draws on its long history of intellectual leadership and international engagement to shape an open, resilient global system; And a Bank that builds on the immense successes of the past quarter century in combining clear objectives, good governance and constructive transparency. A single timeless mission Let me begin by asking a simple question: what is the Bank of England for? The Bank’s founding charter of 1694 explains that its original purpose was to “promote the publick Good and Benefit of our People…”. What that meant in practice at the time was  1  “The fight against inflation” was the title of Geoffrey Howe’s 1981 lecture.
The Board reaffirms its commitment with the inflation target and will take every action necessary to ensure that it will return to 3 percent annually within the policy horizon. It also reiterates the need for all financial system participants to properly assess their borrowing and lending conditions. We, as the Central Bank, will continue to contribute with what is our duty – that is, safeguarding the stability of our currency and the normal functioning of internal and external payments – to Chile’s development and welfare. Thank you. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 1 Inflation indicators (*) (annual change, percent) 5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 11  Jul. 12  Jul. 13  Jul. CPI  CPIEFE  14  (*) Starting in January 2014, calculations are based on the new indices with base year 2013=100, so they may not be strictly comparable with earlier figures. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE).

As pointed out in our IEF Report, in the local corporate markets the lower risk premiums have also helped to improve financing conditions, which have been showing sustained improvement since mid-last year and into 2014 to date (figure 6). Despite the lower cost of credit, banking credit has expanded less in recent months, mainly in commercial loans, which relate to the financing of inventories, working capital and fixed assets. Aside from demand-side factors, the Bank Lending Survey shows that credit access conditions have tightened in recent months. The opinions taken from April’s Business Perceptions Report agree with this assessment. In contrast, annual growth in mortgage credit posted a slight increase, which is attributed to the completion of various real estate projects and committed sales. International financial markets look calmer than in the second half of 2013 and early 2014. Thanks to this the stock markets improved, sovereign risk premiums and long-term rates declined, and emerging market currencies appreciated. Why? Because of a number of factors. On one hand, in the U.S. the withdrawal of unconventional stimulus measures has proceeded as expected and the Eurozone has made advances on the fiscal and banking fronts. In the latter, there are also additional monetary measures recently applied to avert a deflation. On the other hand, in China risks are still present affecting the financial system and economic growth. The authorities have announced some focalized fiscal stimulus packages and capital market reforms, and the latest stress tests showed good capital adequacy levels.
Either via vendor financing, where a company allows a customer to purchase a product or service on credit. Or by extending credit directly to some of their suppliers. Or by supporting their supply chain indirectly by setting up programmes to allow suppliers to borrow against unpaid invoices. ACT data suggest that so-called “buyer driven receivable programmes” have been growing in recent years. And there is some anecdotal evidence from the Bank’s network of Agents that larger firms are helping out smaller firms a bit. But it is fanciful to entertain the notion that anyone other than the banking system can be the main backstop for working-capital finance – for small and large companies alike. Banks are unique in that their deposits comprise the money we all use for day-to-day purchases, so they and they alone can provide liquidity insurance (provided they are financially sound). For much of our history, the Bank of England worked with the grain of that by lending against bankers’ acceptances in our monetary operations: the famous Bill on London. The bill market atrophied in the mid-1990s, and withered away completely a few years later. But during the crisis I have wondered more than once whether a revival would be useful – although it was a market that relied upon guarantees from banks whose names were close to undoubted. That is for you, as corporate treasurers, and bankers to pursue if you wish to.

But if the overall story of recovery in underlying growth still looks broadly intact, there has been bad news on the inflation front. The recent inflation data, particularly for goods prices, has come in a little stronger than expected. Sterling oil prices and wholesale gas prices have risen by more than 5% since February. Together with duty changes announced in the March Budget, that seems likely to leave the short-term outlook for inflation on a path a little higher than incorporated into the central projection described in the MPC’s February Inflation Report. I think inflation might remain above 3% throughout the second quarter of this year, and possibly into the second half of the year. Already in February, there was a risk that inflation might fall back towards target less quickly than incorporated into our “most likely” central outlook. Not only was there a prospect of supply disruptions to oil production, there was also a possibility that firms might seek to rebuild margins faster than assumed as and when economic recovery becomes more secure. So one possibility is that companies have begun to rebuild or protect their profit margins more quickly than expected. According to the latest ONS data, by the end of last year the profits of mainstream businesses (excluding oil and finance) had fallen to their lowest share of GDP for a couple of decades. Companies’ willingness to tolerate a further squeeze, in the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  face of rising import prices, might be limited.