samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A large currency area, furthermore, means deeper and more liquid financial markets, which allow participants to diversify their risks and, in the absence of currency risk, to focus more on credit risk. Another contribution which EU membership should make to financial stability in accession countries stems from the increased competition which will result from the entry of foreign service providers, particularly if this induces indigenous institutions to find innovative ways to hedge risks and diversify asset portfolios, and to adopt international best practices generally. While cross-country studies on this 4 aspect remain sparse, a recent World Bank study reveals instances where foreign bank entry did lead to improved operations and to greater access to foreign capital. Drawing on data for 80 countries, this study also shows that foreign bank entry does tend to reduce domestic bank profitability, non-interest income and, to some extent, overall expenses. Coupled with the finding that the presence of foreign banks contributes to a higher level of loan-loss provisioning, this leads the authors to conclude that, through its effects on competition, foreign bank entry improves the efficiency and functioning of indigenous banks. While there is nothing automatic about the realisation of such benefits, one might reasonably expect that in the long run the completion of the Single Market in financial services should contribute to the emergence of a healthier financial system in the accession countries.

These include improvements in service delivery by the public sector, having a stable and sustainable tax system, maintaining stability in the exchange rate, preserving political stability, consistency in government policy, and continued investment in infrastructure development. Other areas highlighted include addressing high lending rates, increased efforts in the fight against corruption and reducing bureaucratic processes. Further, respondents were of the view that government needs to take appropriate measures to enhance private sector involvement in decision-making and streamlining licensing requirements. In closing, I wish to thank you all for attending this virtual meeting and hope that you will use the occasion to explore the survey findings and recommend appropriate measures to contribute to the enhancement of the business environment. It is now my singular honour and privilege to officially open the workshop and wish you all fruitful deliberations. I thank you for your kind attention. God bless you. 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
There are, of course, areas where developments have not been so positive. This applies in particular to employment. However, the insight that employment in the long term depends on how well the labour market functions is beginning to gain ground. This is where efforts should be made to obtain a longterm solution to the employment problem. The decisive factor is not how the Riksbank sets the interest rate or how expansive fiscal policy is conducted. The idea that there is no conflict in the long term between objectives for good employment and low inflation is otherwise one of the reasons why Edmund Phelps is this year being awarded the Riksbank’s prize in economic sciences in memory of Alfred Nobel. Now, I do not wish to claim that everything positive that has happened is due to better thought out economic policy. There have also been significant changes in other areas that have contributed to the favourable developments. However, it can be observed that the changeover of monetary policy has given a steadiness and stability to economic policy that was previously lacking. This should be a fairly important factor. BIS Review 101/2006  1  …and a little closer Let me now say something in more detail regarding the developments over the past 3-4 years, as these have been rather special in some ways. At least at first glance, growth, inflation and employment have developed in a slightly contradictory manner in relation to one another during this period.

This is partly due to the fact that international price pressure appears to be continuing. The good international economic activity is one reason why economic prospects remain favourable here in Sweden (Figure 11). However, this is also due to the expectation that growth in domestic demand will be strong. This in turn is due to continued good productivity growth and that the labour market situation is continuing to improve. Household consumption is also being stimulated by the fact that interest rates are relatively low. Little by little economic activity in Sweden will enter a calmer phase. One reason is that international growth will slow down and another is that monetary policy will become less expansionary. We are also assuming that productivity growth will in future slow down somewhat, which will mean that the economy approaches more normal growth figures in the long term. With the development now forecast, it is reasonable to expect that inflation will rise (Figure 12). Domestic production costs are expected to increase more quickly as the economic upturn begins to make a greater impact on the labour market and thereby the rate of wage increase. The fact that productivity growth will gradually slow down also means that higher wages will have a greater impact on companies’ production costs than has been the case in previous years. However, inflation is nevertheless expected to be relatively low during the greater part of the forecast period. A number of factors contribute to this.
We look forward to hearing your views. Why achieving net zero requires action from everyone, including central banks 2020 was a global catastrophe. 3 million lives tragically lost to Covid.2 The worst decline in output since World War 2 globally, and the Great Frost of 1709 in the UK.3 Working hours slashed by the equivalent of 255 million jobs.4 And children’s education cut by at least a quarter.5  Even hardened optimists would struggle to find a silver lining in all of that. But, unintentionally, 2020 did achieve at least one extraordinary thing: it showed us just how big the challenge of tackling climate change  1  Sesame Street: It's Not Easy Being Green (Kermit's Song) - YouTube WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard | WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2021/April/English/Ch1.ashx and https://www.bankofengland.co.uk//media/boe/files/statistics/research-datasets/a-millennium-of-macroeconomic-data-for-theuk.xlsx?la=en&hash=73ABBFB603A709FEEB1FD349B1C61F11527F1DE4 4 wcms_767028.pdf (ilo.org) 5 https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2021/April/English/Ch1.ashx 2 3  2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  2  really is. Last year, as a result of all of that turmoil – air travel down by two thirds;6 road miles halved7 – global fossil CO2 emissions fell by 7%.8 That may not sound like much. But it’s the biggest fall for over a century (Chart 1).

The third important area of work for the TMA will be to develop and promulgate codes and standards that are widely accepted by market participants, and in line with best international practices, to help the treasury markets function smoothly. The TMA will continue the work of the TMF in reviewing and developing codes and standards for the industry in the light of the development in the  BIS Review 4/2006  1  local, Mainland and overseas markets. One example of work in this area is documentation in Chinese, which will be essential as Hong Kong explores new business opportunities on the Mainland. 7. Lastly, for Hong Kong to aspire to be the preferred hub for treasury market businesses in the region, we need to market ourselves well. The TMA will therefore have to pay attention to publicity and communication, not just in Hong Kong but also in the region. It will be very important for the TMA in the years ahead to raise its profile, and strengthen and broaden the ties previously established by the TMF with counterparts in the major market centres around the world. 8. Establishment of the TMA allows a wide range of institutions and practitioners in the foreign exchange, money markets, debt, derivatives and other treasury markets to pool their efforts towards a common aim. While the TMA is newly established, I am glad to note that the financial institutions and money brokers have already joined as institutional members. The majority of the ACIHK members have also joined as individual members.
This level of growth is expected to exceed the growth potential output, giving rise to a positive output gap, particularly in 2015. Other things being equal, this will contribute to higher inflation. GDP growth in 2014–2016 will be driven by domestic demand, both private consumption and investment, and the contribution from net trade will be negative for the entire period. As a consequence, the sizeable current account surplus we have seen in 2013 and 2014 will shrink rapidly next year and give way to a small deficit by 2016. This is cause for concern in and of itself, and we hope that this forecast will not materialise, as Iceland needs to maintain a current account surplus in the next several years as it focuses on putting its external debt onto a more solid footing and building up FX-reserves that are not financed with foreign loans. Economic policy and economic incentives would then have to centre on improving the outlook for the current account balance. According to the forecast, which extends until end-2017, inflation will be at target for the entire forecast horizon, apart for the last quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016. It will average 2.6% for the three-year period from 2014 through 2017, which is well in line with the 2½% inflation target. But the current equilibrium is fragile, the future is highly uncertain, and there are important known risks ranging from the global economy to the liberalisation of Iceland’s capital controls. We will doubtless discuss some of these at this meeting.

Hence, the first choice which Exter had to make was whether to retain the currency board system or go for a central banking system. In a way, he did not have much choice in this regard, because his mandate was “to report on the organization and the functions of a Reserve Bank for Ceylon….” If he preferred a currency board, he should not have accepted the assignment. However, like a true professional, he compared and contrasted the two systems before he made his recommendation in favor of a central bank. The report demonstrates that his recommendation was out of conviction rather than the performance of a mere duty. His choice of a central bank for Ceylon in preference to the continuation of even a reformed currency board system was made on the basis of strong economic arguments. BIS Review 92/2007  1  1. The higher credit needs of a growing economy: Currency boards which are restrained by the need for maintaining a 100 % foreign reserve backing for the currency cannot supply enough liquidity to meet trade and other requirements unless the country continues to experience a huge balance of payments surplus year after year. Exter argued that it was not only impossible, but also undesirable to have such a surplus. Impossible because a country cannot continue to maintain a competitive edge over its competitors. Undesirable because freezing foreign reserves does not help the country to attain higher growth or welfare. 2.
In both periods, during the run up to the financial crisis and its aftermath, most forecasters were mistaken about future growth rates and inflation rates by relatively large amounts. Both surveys of professional forecasters exhibit significantly less dispersion than the Survey of Consumer Expectations – even when focusing only on “sophisticated” respondents with high education and numeracy. This suggests that there may be some scope for the sort of mechanisms I described, which may induce the “fundamental” heterogeneity in beliefs to be suppressed in surveys of professional forecasters. Consequently, household surveys may add important information on “fundamental” heterogeneity of beliefs relative to professional surveys, as the latter may reflect, in part, relativistic payoffs or shared information sets which produce an excessive consensus of views. Thank you for listening to me today; I would be happy to take some questions on our research on inflation expectations. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  References Armantier, O., S. Nelson, G. Topa, W. van der Klaauw, and B. Zafar. 2012. “The Price is Right: Updating of Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 543, revised January 2013. Armantier, O., W. Bruine de Bruin, G. Topa, W. van der Klaauw, and B. Zafar. 2011.

Similarly, in pricing TIPS, a trader with a nonconformist view faces costs in taking that view, so even if ultimately proven correct, the costs of establishing such a position may deter the nonconformist view’s from being reflected in market prices. Second, professional forecasters may be overly exposed to similar “world views,” sharing similar data, reports, and analyses. This may lead to an information aggregation bias of sorts, in which forecasters share the same information set, which is an aggregate of finer information, and which may result in the loss of some important information. The next charts describe the median four-quarter-ahead CPI forecast and the dispersion around that median for the Blue Chip survey and the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters. While there is significant overlap in the two sets of respondents, there is an important difference between the two surveys: respondents are anonymous in the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters, whereas they are identified by name in the Blue Chip survey. The asymmetric payoffs described earlier may therefore have more of an impact in the Blue Chip survey than in the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters, leading to less dispersion in the former than in the latter. Chart 9 shows that the median forecast is substantially the same across the two surveys. However, as seen in Chart 10, there is some evidence of lower heterogeneity among forecasters in the Blue Chip survey compared with the Survey of Professional Forecasters, especially in recent periods, which, in retrospect, were periods of high fundamental uncertainty in the economy.
Jean-Claude Trichet: The role of money – money and monetary policy in the 21st century (closing address) Closing address by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the Fourth ECB Central Banking Conference “The role of money: money and monetary policy in the twenty-first century”, Frankfurt am Main, 10 November 2006. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It has been a great pleasure to host you at this fourth ECB central banking conference. Over the past day and a half, we have enjoyed several outstanding presentations and stimulating discussions, which have helped understand better the role of money in modern monetary policy-making. The richness of the discussions stems in large part from the diversity of views that have been expressed. In selecting the leading participants at this conference, we did not hesitate to choose speakers who would challenge our established views and those of others. And we strongly believe in frank and candid exchanges of views and in the benefits of a close interaction with the academic community. At the conclusion of the conference, I certainly can agree with Prof. Woodford that there is indeed room for further refinement of the intellectual framework used as a basis for monetary policy deliberations. At the same time, I remain convinced that we should not lightly discard elements – such as monetary analysis – that have served central banks well in the past. With these two points in mind, what are the main messages we should draw from the proceedings?

4  See, EBA (2017) “Final Report: Recommendations on outsourcing to cloud service providers”, December, available at: https://www.eba.europa.eu/sites/default/documents/files/documents/10180/2170121/5fa5cdde-3219-4e95-946d0c0d05494362/Final%20draft%20Recommendations%20on%20Cloud%20Outsourcing%20%28EBA-Rec-201703%29.pdf?retry=1 4  Let me stop here. I have no doubt that the quality of the discussions we have today will allow us to deepen our understanding of these challenges in order to draw useful conclusions in terms of economic policy. And allow me to express once again my gratitude to the co-organisers of this event for making this conference possible, and to wish all the participants a very fruitful meeting and a pleasant stay in Istanbul. 5
Under Solvency II valuation rules, this business is usually profitable and provides a boost to a firm’s balance sheet; no credit for future premiums therefore reduces the recognition of expected future profits and leads to a lower solvency ratio. In response to this, some firms have sought to amend existing insurance contracts in order to extend the contract boundary and recognise more future profit. The most common example is the addition of free marginal insurance benefits that are of questionable value to policyholders and which are (arguably) not economically discernible. Some amendments might meet the letter of the regulation, but they are designed to circumvent the spirit. The PRA will continue to scrutinise proposals by firms which seek to strengthen their balance sheets but which pay little attention to the additional risks they carry. Keeping across these issues, and leaning against any risks they create to our objectives, will require us to make good use of the full range of the Bank of England’s intelligence and analytical techniques. The new strategic plan that we have just adopted for the Bank (‘Vision 2020’) is exactly in this spirit and I’m delighted that my beady-eyed colleague Vicky Saporta will lead some horizon-scanning work in this area. Conclusion  Today I have provided a potted history of how banks, building societies and insurers have been supervised in the UK over the past 100 years.

Overly expansionary fiscal policy may de-anchor inflation expectation and further fuel inflation. So far, some of the central banks have "looked through" these supply side factors, while others, where labour markets have been tight and economy has been gaining steam or inflation expectations have risen, have already started the tightening cycle. The tightening of monetary policy in the advanced world may lead to headwinds for EMEs that may well have no choice but adjust their monetary policy stance. Not doing so risks capital outflows and currency depreciations, further fueling inflation. Emerging Europe already witnessed 300 million $ outflow since the beginning of the war, though it is far smaller than in March 2020 when they amounted 1.7 billion $ While calibrating monetary policy, we also have to be mindful of the price effects of some structural forces such as green transition and globalization, which may put upward price pressures. In the past, globalisation enabled rapid trade integration of many countries, lifting up their growth potential and putting persistent downward pressure on inflation. Now, with globalisation under threat, price pressures are upward. Overall, in an environment of rising inflation and limited policy space, blanket support should give way to more targeted and time bound policies, and even more importantly shift the focus back to structural and transformational policies, which are key for lifting the growth potential and building resilience. The latter is particularly relevant for the countries in the region that are faced with slow real convergence and stagnant growth potential.
This would in turn be reflected in an international convergence in the prices of financial products and assets, with low transaction costs that encourage the institutions, issuers and investors to venture beyond the domestic markets into foreign markets. Essentially, the end goal of financial integration is to establish a free flow of finance and capital, akin to trade integration which aims for the unrestricted mobility of goods and services. Deeper financial integration would further enhance the competitiveness and dynamism of Asia. Broadly, greater financial integration would bring about three key benefits. First, financial integration fosters greater competition and economies of scale in the financial system, thereby improving the efficiency in the allocation of capital within the region and thus increase the capacity of the financial system to meet the differentiated and growing demands of investors. While the individual Asian financial markets, on their own, are small in size and fragmented, an integrated market would raise Asia's attractiveness to both regional and  10  BIS Review 130/2009  global investors. Second, financial integration would facilitate a more efficient transfer of surplus funds for investments within the region, with lower intermediation costs and thus more optimal returns. Through the greater opportunity for risk-sharing and diversification across a wider geographical area, country-specific shocks and financial vulnerabilities would be reduced, thus contributing towards enhanced regional financial stability. Third, financial integration enables countries to build on the complementarities between countries. Individually, different financial systems can leverage on the comparative advantages of the different markets that exist in the region.

It has helped entrench Hong Kong as a testing ground and pilot market for China’s continuing financial reform and liberalisation. There is clearly immense scope for us to leverage on our key strengths as a close business partner, a capital formation centre and a financial intermediary for the Mainland economy in the development of Islamic finance. There are opportunities for us to extend our reach to potential Islamic investors and financiers in the Middle East and Asia. The addition of Islamic finance as a new asset class in our financial system will add value to Hong Kong as a thriving financial centre and a leading financial services hub in Asia. As a major financial centre, Hong Kong – with its flexible and innovative market participants and its responsive government – has always stood ready to adapt to and embrace new ideas. Even if the current financial environment appears unfavourable to the development of Islamic finance in the short term, this is, at worst, a temporary setback as future prospects remain promising. We at least do not intend to be put off by temporary difficulties from our goal of making Hong Kong an Islamic financial hub. Indeed we believe that this is a good time to do the groundwork of installing the necessary legal, taxation and market infrastructure. 4  Source: World Federation of Exchanges.