samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But the pessimist is inclined to point to the weakness of private sector saving, which could induce more cautious consumer behaviour especially if unemployment continues to rise; he points to a possible overhang of past investment excesses; and he points to the US external deficit which will at some point need to be corrected. These adjustments might take place gradually over time, in which case the US might face a more protracted period of relatively slow growth; or, if you are really pessimistic, the adjustments might be more abrupt implying a possible period of negative growth and global financial instability. The recent somewhat erratic recovery of US stock markets from their earlier gloom suggests that they are beginning to side with the optimists; some of the survey evidence of consumer and business confidence on the other hand still supports a rather more pessimistic view. For what it is worth, and given the strong policy response in the US, I am modestly optimistic, but I recognise the downside risks. The outcome is obviously the major uncertainty surrounding the global economic prospect, and policymakers elsewhere can only monitor, continuously and very closely, the emerging evidence and react to that in the light of its likely impact on their own situation.

Short-term demand management through monetary policy too often led instead to accelerating inflation, and increasing external deficits, which had eventually to be brought under control through recession – an absolute recipe for short-termism in both financial and business behaviour. Equally, excessive public expenditure – which had ultimately to be financed through higher taxation – imposed burdens on the private sector which weakened its capacity to generate employment and income and wealth. So the emphasis now, more or less everywhere, is on effective price stability as the immediate objective of macro-economic policy – not simply as an end in itself but as a measure of the balance between aggregate demand and underlying supply in the economy as a whole. In effect the aim of monetary policy in particular is to moderate, rather than aggravate, the economic cycle, and so to provide the basis for sustainable growth at around the underlying rate of growth of productive, supplyside, potential. And the emphasis now – again more or less everywhere – in relation to fiscal policy is to limit public sector borrowing, and the outstanding level of public sector debt, to levels that can be sustained into the medium and longer term without the need for increasing tax burdens or the imposition of rising real interest rates on the private sector.
Over the last 6 years the cumulative productivity growth in Estonia, relative to its main trading partners, has amounted to 25 per cent. The corresponding CPI-based real exchange rate appreciation amounts to 22 per cent. The share of current and future EU member states in Estonian exports is about 80%. By now, Estonian economy is strongly integrated into the European economic area. Can we say that the restructuring of our economy has been completed? III. On the way to Europe  What are the challenges ahead? For Estonia, like for all new member states, the only possible way to join the euro system is to do it in full compliance with the letter and spirit of the EU Treaty. Speaking about the present accession countries as a group, it can be said that the key challenge of the policy maker is similar everywhere - to foster real convergence and at the same time maintain macroeconomic stability. But although the underlying processes are the same for all, earlier national economic policy choices - and also the size of the country in question - play a very significant role. Thus, the optimal approach to euro area membership can in no case be a uniform one suitable for one and everybody. ERM II provides, in principle, a much-needed buffer zone before a country's EMU entry. However, there are obvious risks involved.

At the present time Estonian banking sector is responsible for a significant share of the profits of their owners. Profitability means effectiveness at least comparable to the financial sectors of our neighbouring EU member countries and a somewhat greater flexibility of production factors, especially the flexibility of labour markets. Profitability also means a relatively rapid adoption of new technologies. For example, the number of card payments per capita in Estonia should be roughly equal to the respective German figures while the share of internet banking customers is somewhat higher (and the list of internet-based bank services somewhat more exhaustive) in Estonia. Estonia would like to be one of the first new members of the club - we would like to become a member of the euro area at the earliest possible moment. That would mean joining the ERM2 as soon as possible, with the present EUR/EEK exchange rate and the currency board arrangement in place. Provided nothing adverse happens, Estonia might be in a position to submit its application for ERM2 membership as early as mid-2004. It should, perhaps, also be mentioned that at the present moment, Estonia is in a relatively advantageous position among the candidate countries as to its ability to meet the Maastricht criteria and other important requirements.
Ladies and Gentlemen, For more than two decades, our efforts have been directed to put in place the pre-requisites for the development of an effective and competitive Islamic financial system. With the strategic components and domestic financial infrastructure in place, steps have now been taken to liberalise our domestic Islamic financial system - this has aimed to strengthen further our international financial and economic linkages. The liberalisation is evident on several fronts. This has diversified the players in our financial system with the issue of new licences to foreign players and the increase in the allowable foreign equity participation up to 49% in both Islamic banking and takaful industry. This initiative has also created a more competitive environment, thereby driving further progress in the development of the Islamic financial system. In addition, it has promoted innovation, increasing the range of products and services being offered. Efforts to develop the domestic bond market have been intensified to diversify the structure of the Islamic financial system. This has allowed greater flexibility by investors in the management of their funds while the ability of foreign corporations to raise ringgit-denominated papers in our domestic bond market has contributed towards enhancing its depth and breadth. With these developments, this has positioned Malaysia to evolve as an international financial centre for Islamic finance. In this regard, Islamic financial institutions have a significant role to play. The investment in research and development would strengthen the capability for greater innovation by Islamic financial institutions.

It is thus no exaggeration to say that those present at a similar dinner six years ago felt quite optimistic about the prospects for the European economy, within Monetary Union, although the Union had only just taken its very first steps and euro banknotes and coins had not even begun to circulate. We now have the benefit of the experience built up in the intervening period. The euro has meant tangible benefits in terms of savings on transaction costs for citizens, eliminating exchange rate risks within the area, facilitating market integration and it has provided an environment of economic and monetary stability. The ECB has attained high credibility in a short period of time which is undoubtedly a result of the clarity of its objectives, the effectiveness of its strategy and the soundness of its decisions. Nevertheless, it is a fact that the European economy has not managed to repeat growth figures close to those seen in 2000. It has been prone to bouts of notable sluggishness, highlighting - in addition to the effect of an unusual series of adverse shocks - the structural shortcomings holding back activity and employment. We have therefore seen that, despite the favourable effects a monetary policy unequivocally geared to price stability has on economic prosperity, the full effectiveness of its contribution requires an ambitious reform agenda in other economic policy spheres.
Jean-Pierre Roth: Switzerland in the EU environment Speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Polish-Swiss Chamber of Industry and Commerce, Warsaw, 16 June 2003. *  1. *  *  Introduction  Last weekend the Polish people gave the green light to Poland’s membership of the European Union. This means that in May next year your country will be seeing the crowning of its political efforts of the last 10 years: its accession, alongside nine other states, to the European Union. I congratulate you and share your happiness. The integration within the EU of the countries of the former eastern bloc certainly represents a decisive milestone on the way to creating a peaceful, secure and prosperous Europe. Of all the accession countries, Poland is Switzerland’s most important economic partner. Trade between our two countries has doubled since 1995. Poland and Switzerland can also look back on more than ten years of continuing fruitful cooperation within the same constituency at the International Monetary Fund. Your EU membership and further integration will help to reinforce the economic ties between our two countries. The Polish poet and Nobel prize-winner Czeslaw Milosz once said that Eastern Europe generally knew much more about the West than the West did about the East. I have no doubt that this is especially true in your case, as members of the Polish-Swiss Chamber of Industry and Commerce.

Some of these are “left-overs” from the first bilateral agreements, some are new issues which have been raised by either the EU or Switzerland. The EU wanted the adoption of anti-fraud measures and the creation of a tax system in Switzerland which would allow the EU to adopt a regime of exchange of information between tax authorities. On their side, the Swiss sought an improved cooperation in the areas of internal security and asylum policy. The negotiations on seven out of the ten issues have now been substantially completed. We hope that this second round of negotiations will be concluded this year, provided that the right balance can be struck in the overall package. You may well be asking yourselves: why doesn’t Switzerland simply join the EU instead of following the bumpy path of bilateral agreements ? The reason is that there is still no consensus in Switzerland on the question of EU membership. Winston Churchill used to say to his chauffeur: “Drive slowly. We are in a hurry”. These words could apply to Switzerland’s policy on Europe. Eleven years ago the Swiss people voted “no” to entry into the European Economic Area, because many saw this as a first step towards EU membership. Two years ago a referendum aimed at speeding up the process towards EU membership was likewise roundly rejected. Since any further moves would clearly lack political support within the country, EU membership is not on the Swiss agenda at the present time. There are many reasons for Switzerland’s scepticism.
The broad spread of fairly complicated constructions of financial instruments that has contributed to the current confidence crisis in the financial markets is a clear example that risk awareness has been low. There is currently a process under way where various authorities around the world are reviewing their regulations, supervision and general frameworks for crisis management. This applies not only on a national basis, but also at an international level. If, for instance, one does not harmonise the regulations for crisis management, one country’s measures may create problems for another country. These are not merely challenges for the "external” systems. There are also challenges for our analysis framework. It is difficult to take credit markets and asset prices into account in a really good way in our forecasts. Some work still remains in this field, for instance, with regard to finding good ways to include asset prices and other financial variables in models of the whole economy. There is a lot of work going on in this field in many parts of the world, not least at the Riksbank. I also believe that there will be many developments in this area, too, over the coming years. Concluding remarks It has been incredibly interesting and stimulating to work at the Riksbank. And it is possibly even more stimulating today than when I first began here. I must confess that it feels a little strange to know that I will no longer be ”on the inside” and involved in managing the challenges we face.

One driving force is of course that the world around us is constantly changing – and often very quickly. Quite simply, there are new demands made on us from outside, which we must deal with as best we can. Developments during the financial crisis in recent months are a good example of this. There are also demands from outside regarding our interaction with the general public, with other public authorities and with you who work in the financial markets. It is important that we communicate and work together efficiently, both to ensure monetary policy functions smoothly and to safeguard financial stability. But the pressure for changes does not only come from outside. We are constantly working on developing our working methods. It may not always be apparent to those who do not work at the Riksbank, but there is a strong will among our employees to improve our ways of thinking and working. There is a positive driving force behind the changes we are implementing. I am convinced that this driving force has contributed to the fact that we now have much better working methods than before. Another positive driving force is the regular contacts we have with other central banks and with the academic world. 2  BIS Review 155/2008  The developments cover everything from new methods to our communication. Something that constitutes an example of both of these things is the forecast for the repo rate path that we now publish regularly.
Much has been done, yet much remains to be done and we are determined to keep at it. I recognize fully that there can be no return to pre-crisis business as usual – whether on the part of the financial sector or on the part of regulators like ourselves. All in all, there is a lot to keep myself and my colleagues busy. National economic conditions The incoming data on the U.S. economy has been a bit more upbeat of late, suggesting that the recovery may be finally establishing a somewhat firmer footing. Real GDP expanded at a 3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011, the fastest growth since the first half of  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  2010. The average monthly gain in nonfarm payroll employment moved up to 256,000 in January and February from 164,000 in the fourth quarter. Sales of light-weight motor vehicles rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.1 million in February, the highest since early 2008. The ISM nonmanufacturing index rose for the third consecutive month in February and now stands at its highest level in a year. Even the housing starts data have firmed somewhat, although from quite depressed levels. While these developments are certainly encouraging, it is far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods.

Moreover, Brookhaven Labs and Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, as well as a fine array of academic institutions, provide a strong foundation for the island’s tech sector and business sector more broadly. The recent move to create stronger ties between the business community, research labs and SUNY (State University of New York) is a welcome development. It has the potential to help leverage the island’s existing assets to enhance the prospects for economic development. Conclusion To sum up, the incoming data on the U.S. economy has been a bit more upbeat of late, suggesting that the recovery may be getting better established. But, while these developments are certainly encouraging, it is far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods in terms of generating a strong, sustainable recovery. On the inflation front, the yearover-year rate of consumer price inflation has slowed in recent months, and despite the recent rise of gasoline prices, we expect inflation to moderate further in 2012. Looking ahead, the key challenge for the Long Island economy will be to continue to prepare its residents for the best jobs being created here. Expanding educational access and opportunity and the skills that go along with it will go a long way to broadening participation in the economy to all residents and bolstering Long Island in the future. Thank you for your kind attention. I would be happy to take a few questions. 4  For more information, see the New York Fed’s consumer credit panel. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
Mr Noyer considers the role of the central bank in encouraging and safeguarding savings  Speech given by Mr Christian Noyer, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, at the EUROFONDS colloquium in Paris, held on 21 January 2000. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, It is a great pleasure to be taking part in this EUROFONDS colloquium on savings. I should like to take this opportunity to share with you some thoughts on the role of a central bank in encouraging and safeguarding savings. This is indeed a crucial matter, since the level of savings largely determines the long-term level of productive investment, which provides the basis for solid and stable growth. Moreover, the level and structure of savings affects, in various ways, the cost and means of financing enterprises, the profitability of the financial sector and the distribution of income between generations in view of the central issue of financing retirement. I should like to focus my presentation, as I am sure you will understand, not on the central bank in theory but on the role of the Eurosystem in this field, that is, the European Central Bank and the 11 national central banks of the euro area. In addition, I shall say a few words on the impact of the launch of the euro on the development and safeguarding of savings in Europe. I shall therefore develop two points: •  By safeguarding price stability, the Eurosystem contributes to the safeguarding and consolidation of savings.

There are two facts which illustrate this trend: the number of monetary financial institutions (which has already been decreasing steadily for several years) fell by 5% in one year in 1999 (up to the end of November); and the total value of mergers and acquisitions involving banks in the euro area clearly exceeded (by around 35%, according to certain private databases) the already high level recorded in 1998. In 1999 it was also above the level of similar transactions reported in the United States. Conclusion Price stability and the creation of a large integrated financial market are therefore beneficial to the development of savings in the euro area and to their optimal allocation. It would certainly be wise to ensure that certain financial imbalances are not allowed to jeopardise this favourable environment. Thus, insufficient fiscal consolidation leads to a continuous eviction by the states of a significant part of the available private savings. In the same way, excessive taxation and wage increases out of line with growth in productivity sap the dynamism from investment and consequently also from savings. 3  BIS Review 6/2000  Its development also requires a certain convergence in tax systems. Ultimately, the health of the financial sector is essential to the protection of savings. Although the Eurosystem has no direct authority in the field of prudential supervision, it monitors risk developments in the banking sector, as it does more generally with regard to developments in assets prices, where these could potentially affect overall monetary and financial stability.
Another longer-term challenge—and one that’s perhaps most important—is the chance that some economies in our region might fall into the so-called “middle income trap”. The middle income trap is the phenomenon that many emerging economies slow markedly as per capita income approaches a certain level, typically estimated to be around $ Many important economies in Asia are already approaching that level, so we should all be thinking about this challenge before it’s too late. Trends such as population ageing, a slowdown of urbanisation, low productivity as a result of overinvestment, and the lack of financial market development are generally cited as the causes of the middle income trap. One would think that the reversal of these trends could help economies evade the trap, but this of course is easier said than done. Crucial Role of Financial Market Development While issues such as population ageing are probably best left to other forums, those of us here today are well-suited to think about how financial market developments can help Asian economies overcome the two longer-term challenges. Informed by Hong Kong’s blueprint as an International Financial Centre, let me share a few thoughts on this issue. First, both longer term challenges – navigating China’s economic transition, and evading the middle income trap – require Asia’s financial institutions to be tech-forward. Around the world, we have seen fintech play a key role, with innovations ranging from the digitalisation of traditional banking activities, to ones aimed at promoting financial inclusion.

Several explanations for the crisis One usually says that the crisis began in 2007 with problems in the US mortgage market and that this gradually developed into a global financial crisis, which became acute in autumn 2008 in connection with Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy. But the picture is more complex than this. The origin and course of the crisis will be analysed thoroughly and we probably will not have a complete history of it until much later. However, we can already note that there are several explanations as to why the crisis arose and why it became so widespread. One circumstance that probably played some role is that growth had long been good in many countries, at the same time as inflation was low – quite simply, things had gone unusually well for an unusually long period of time. And when things have gone well for a long period of time it is probably human nature to relax and become slightly incautious. This is what appears to have happened this time in various ways and places, not solely in the US mortgage market. One factor that probably also contributed was that there was a global saving surplus that meant there were large capital sums to be invested in the financial markets. This surplus pushed down the interest rate on risk-free assets.