samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Adhering to one and the same interest rate path, despite conditions changing, is about as bad as always driving a car at the same speed, regardless of whether the road is dry or treacherously icy. It is not particularly strange that the appropriate path for the repo rate should vary over time, but it is still worth emphasising this. It is sometimes raised as a potential problem that when a central bank presents its own policy rate forecast, it can be seen as a failure if the central bank does not later follow the path that it had forecast. However, I am quite convinced that the Swedish monetary policy discussion has now reached such a stage that this will not be a problem. There is currently widespread understanding that the assessments are uncertain and that new information may change the conditions for the monetary policy decisions quite substantially. Others have pointed to a risk that the information value of setting interest rates in the market may deteriorate if the central bank publishes its own interest rate forecast. The reason is said to be that market agents would then no longer seek other information that has significance for long-term rates. But I believe that this is also a rather exaggerated fear. The financial market agents know that we live in an uncertain world and will continue to make their own assessments of interest rate developments.

It is a natural part of the economic debate that the Riksbank is being criticised, isn’t it? Wouldn’t it then be better to ignore the criticism and look ahead instead? No, I don’t think so. One important reason is that in the wake of the financial crisis there has been a discussion on the activities and tasks of central banks, what central banks should do and how they should do it. It is, of course, important that our debate on this here in Sweden is anchored in reality and based on how monetary policy has actually been conducted and what it has actually achieved. But meeting the criticism is important not just for the discussion here in Sweden. The debate on Swedish monetary policy also has an international interest and has been followed abroad, not least by other central banks.1 The reason is that a central issue in the international discussion has been to what extent central banks’ policy rates should be used as a complement to macroprudential policy, to counteract the build-up of financial imbalances, for instance, by trying to prevent lending and housing prices from rising too quickly.2 This is what is often called a policy of “leaning against the wind”, and I will hereafter use this expression for the sake of simplicity. Monetary policy in Sweden has in this context been regarded as particularly interesting, as the Riksbank is one of few central banks that, at least this far, has been explicit about taking such considerations into account in its policy-rate decisions.
intends to establish a unit comprising officers with specialised skills in the areas of law, forensic and investigation skills and accounting, to liaise and assist law enforcement authorities on related investigations. This Unit will also deal with matters relating to unauthorised deposit taking institutions. In addition, the Central Bank will continue to  Our objective is to reduce the overall risk  enhance awareness of the general public  of the financial sector by maintaining  on the dangers of engaging in  fewer companies but a stronger sector  unauthorised investment schemes, and  to avoid any contagion effect. As such,  institutions authorised by the Central  with the proposed changes to the  Bank to accept deposits from the  existing regulatory framework, we  general public through an effective  Central Bank of Sri Lanka – ROAD MAP 2017  22  public awareness campaign involving  surveillance, which includes: (1)  mass media. collecting macroeconomic and financial  Primary dealers play a vital role in trading of government securities and market making. Further, there is high potential to deepen the debt securities market in the country. Hence, we need to have a clearly stated policy framework for Primary Dealers. This will further enhance the safety of investments in the government securities market.

We also intend to introduce Internet Banking Guidelines and Security Standards for mobile Central Bank of Sri Lanka – ROAD MAP 2017  Sri Lanka needs to strengthen the AMF/CFT regime by effectively implementing Financial Action Task Force (FATF) recommendations in order to upgrade the country rating. If Sri Lanka fails to achieve the expected level of compliance, the country may be considered as a high risk country, resulting in adverse implications on the financial sector. In order to overcome such challenges and hence to ensure compliance, the Central Bank will focus on a number of strategic actions in the medium-term. I would also like to note that the Microfinance Act came into effect on 15 July 2016. In line with this, the Department of Supervision of Microfinance Institutions (DSMI) was 24  established at the Central Bank of Sri  management model, where the  Lanka to carry out the responsibilities, as  operational managers form the first line  stipulated in the Microfinance Act No. of defense, and the Risk Management  06 of 2016 and implement policies  and Internal Audit Departments  approved by the Monetary Board to  constitute the second and third lines of  ensure good governance, transparency  defense, respectively. and stability of Microfinance Institutions  Moreover, in view of the need to build a  (MFIs).
THE BATTLE FOR RELEVANCE*  Assalam-o-Alaikum and a very good morning to you all. It gives me great pleasure to welcome you today to this international banking conference. I would like to start by expressing my deepest gratitude to His Highness the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah for his patronage of this conference. It is the guidance and wise leadership of His Highness that has enabled us to build one of the region’s safest and most robust financial systems, which has played a vital role in the development of our economy. I would like to thank all the honorable governors of central banks, heads of regulatory authorities, heads of financial institutions and other distinguished guests for joining us today. And I am grateful to all the distinguished speakers who are participating in this event, our local banks who have partnered with us to support this conference and my dedicated colleagues at the Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK) for their efforts in organizing this conference. The banking industry has enjoyed exceptional growth over the past half century, and despite some shortcomings, it has played a critical role in supporting economic growth around the world. During normal times, one would expect banks to continue operating as they have in the past, with perhaps a greater focus on product innovation or operational efficiency. But we are not living in normal times.

Conclusion I think it is quite clear that the banking industry can no longer afford to continue conducting business as usual and ignore the issues that I have highlighted. The banking industry must take stock of the external challenges it faces today, including a very difficult economic environment, the impact of evolving technologies and the shift in customer expectations. It must focus on winning customer loyalty, providing value, operating efficiently and resiliently, and attracting the right talent. In addition, the enabling institutions such as educators and regulators need to provide the necessary support if the industry is to succeed in this transformative journey. The industry is clearly at a crossroads and needs to make proactive decisions now to remain relevant in the future. There are two paths that the industry can take. If the banking industry continues to operate the way it has in the past, ignoring the many challenges that it faces today, it would lose its dominant position. Competition Central Bank of Kuwait - Public ‫ عام‬- ‫بنك الكويت المركزي‬  - 19 -  will increase from different institutions such as telecom operators, technology companies and FinTech firms, and customers will flock to these solutions, as we have already seen in some markets. Banks, as a result, will be pushed to the fringes of the industry, if not removed altogether. But if the industry manages to evolve, then the picture could be different.
Of course, expert judgment and shortterm analyses still play an important supplementary role in the design of the final forecast. The good standard of our current forecasting know-how is reflected, among other things, in our ability to start providing technical assistance in the forecasting field to some other central banks in transition and emerging market economies. It is clear that the development of the forecasting system has not always been straightforward and easy. During the first years, many of the details were adjusted in response to the changing needs,  2  BIS Review 40/2006  challenging experience and evolving thinking of the central bank. Given the legacy of the communist period and the lack of available data, we were forced to leave out, unfortunately or fortunately, the period of large-scale econometric models. First, there was no experience with that kind of modelling in our communist history. Second, the reliable data series start in 1994, which significantly constrains the proper use of econometric techniques. Therefore, our macro models have relied heavily on calibration. Despite, or maybe because of, the latter, they seem to provide consistent guidelines for policy decision-making. The entry of the Czech Republic into the European Union in May 2004 has not so far created any serious issue in respect of the practical forecasting of the Czech economy. However, we can identify two issues related to the future development of the forecasting system.

6  See: McKinnon, R.I. and H. Pill (1997). “Credible liberalisations and overborrowing,” American Economic Review 87(2), pp. 189–193. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  The inflationary consequences of strong growth led to a loss of competitiveness, as the real exchange rate appreciated (Chart 14). The current account of the balance of payments shifted into deficit, creating a dependency on the inflow of foreign capital (Chart 15). 7 And the rapid pace of economic growth obscured the underlying weakness of public finances, in some cases abetted by creative accounting practices, such as shifting government liabilities off the balance sheet. The case of Ireland seems particularly close to Asia’s experience in the 1990s: while public finances appeared relatively strong, a vast external debt was being accumulated by the banking system. The implicit government liabilities towards the financial sector arising from deposit insurance schemes and the need to manage systemic risks were neither fully recognised nor appropriately priced (Chart 16). By contrast, the Greek experience appears closer to that of Latin America. In these cases, fiscal indiscipline, in part initially obscured by creative accounting practices, lies at the heart of the accumulation of financial imbalances, rather than a build-up of external debt on bank balance sheets. Argentina’s crisis in 2001 is a case in point, although the experience was shared by many Latin American countries in the 1980s (Chart 17).
Erdem Başçi: Central bank responsibilities, global financial stability and payment systems Opening remarks by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the “Payment Systems Conference”, organized by Al Bank Wal Mustathmer Group, Istanbul, 5 December 2012. *  *  *  Distinguished Governors of the Central Banks, Distinguished Guests and Esteemed Members of the Press, I would like to thank you all on behalf of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and myself for your participation in the “Payment Systems Conference” organized by Al Bank Wal Mustathmer Group. Welcome to İstanbul and Turkey. Participants to the conference, who are all experts in the field, will be discussing payment systems, their significance and contemporary approaches. Before moving onto the topic of payment systems, I would like to briefly mention the main responsibility areas of central banks. Distinguished Guests, Price stability, financial stability and the development of the financial sector are three significant fields central banks are responsible for, either partially or fully. The primary objective is price stability. The social costs to be incurred from the loss of price stability have been thoroughly understood by economists.

This study was published in April 2012. The said study outlines 24 principles for the relevant authorities of FMIs and 5 key responsibilities for overseers and supervisory authorities. The main objective of all these principles and responsibilities is to create a more secure and efficient structure for authorities of FMIs that also includes payment systems. In this regard, I think that all authorities related to payment systems will do their utmost to achieve harmonization of these systems and apply the said principles in the near future. Further international studies carried out in this field will focus on the implementation of these 24 principles. Distinguished Participants, Cross-border connections of payment systems progressively gain importance in line with the increase in the volume of foreign trade. In the meantime, studies geared towards developing the international payment systems continue all around the world. I think this conference will significantly contribute to these studies and I very much hope that it will be a useful and fruitful conference. I would like to thank you all for listening. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
The rating process is an integral part of the design and financial engineering of these products: it determines the size of the tranches and the seniority levels. The rating of a structured product is not an average of the ratings of the underlying assets, in particular for CDOs. It depends on both the correlation between the yield on the various securities and the leverage effect embedded in the structure. Rating agencies supply the methods and models for assessing risks and their correlation. They impose the (liquidity, credit enhancement) conditions that the securitisation vehicles have to meet in order to be able to issue. From mere intermediaries, they have become quasi securitisation regulators. As a result of their new role and functions, they are  BIS Review 2/2008  1  now being held responsible for the excesses, malfunctionings and turbulences that have been prevalent on structured product markets for the past three months. Rating activity and current turbulences The question is not to assign responsibilities, and even less to enter into a blame game. The rating of structured products has nevertheless led to a deep misunderstanding between investors and agencies. There are two reasons for this misunderstanding. The first – the most often referred to – is the confusion surrounding the actual scope of the rating. Rating agencies consider themselves responsible for solely assessing credit risk, while many fund managers, in particular of short-term investment funds, may have expected that ratings would cover all the risks (notably liquidity risk) that weigh on their investments.

Naturally, one may consider that these managers were – or should have been – informed of the exact nature of the rating process. However, one cannot deny that their expectations are natural: the smooth functioning and fluidity of the market are based on the provision to all economic agents of simple, clear and concise information on all the parameters that affect the risk-return ratio. This is particularly the case for AAA-rated investors. Contrary to investors in the riskier tranches, which are theoretically more sophisticated, they have less incentive, given the low return on the products, to thoroughly analyse the nature and sensitivity of the ratings. They are therefore more dependent on rating agencies. In addition, investors’ trust in the rating process may have been encouraged by the regulatory and prudential system, which uses ratings as a basis for steering the investment strategies and decisions of the institutions in charge of collecting public savings. The second source of misunderstanding stems from the metric used for rating structured products. It is identical, in terms of presentation, to that used for traditional bond products. Yet, the two universes are different. The consequences of assigning a AAA rating to a CDO and to a corporate bond are not the same. The risk profile is different. The potential volatility of a AAA rating for a structured product, in particular, is far greater than that for a traditional product (for a shock, all other things are equal, of the same magnitude). Structured products are built on correlations and leverage.
Hong Kong is now a relatively clean city with not a lot of garbage on the streets, which is in sharp contrast to the widespread littering of 30–40 years ago. Many people believe that the reason for this welcomed change is the improvement by the Government in its streetcleaning procedures as well as enhanced efforts to catch and fine people who are found littering. But this can only explain a small part of the change. The key driving force, in my view, that makes Hong Kong streets much cleaner today is the change in people’s values. These days, most Hong Kong citizens do not litter the streets not because they are afraid of being caught by the health inspectors but because they don’t think it is right or proper to do so. This change of culture or values is the result of education of the young generation and the “Clean Hong Kong Campaign” that was launched by the Hong Kong Government back in the 1970s. If this had not been the case, our streets would still be filthy even if we had ten times more health inspectors and street cleaners. In the context of building the financial services sector that befits a world-class IFC, I have explained earlier why it is very important to have professional competence and good control. However, it is equally, if not more, important that our financial institutions and their practitioners uphold the right values that protect and serve the interests of the customers who make use of Hong Kong’s financial services.

You may recall that in the movie Wall Street, Michael Douglas kept on saying: “Greed is good!” When this kind of mindset, which puts the individuals’ interests above the firm’s and the firm’s interests ahead of the client’s, becomes prevalent, it will inevitably lead to highly undesirable if not disastrous outcomes not just for the users but for the financial system as a whole. So while greed is probably an inherent part of human nature, a successful financial firm or an IFC must ensure that it can develop and cherish a culture and values that will restrain excessive greed in the interests of giving customers a fair deal. Only in doing that will an IFC be able to sustain its position and competitive edge over a long period of time. We all understand that an IFC also represents a brand, a quality that customers trust in terms of efficiency, reliability and integrity. It takes  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  decades or even centuries to build a brand, but only days to destroy it if any of the qualities of competence, control or culture are eroded. Ladies and gentlemen, I have talked about the qualities or power of the 3Cs and I hope you will agree with me that, if Hong Kong wishes to remain competitive as the region’s premier IFC, we will have to do everything we can to strengthen our “soft power”.
John C Williams: A time of uncertainty Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies 2022 Spring Symposium, Princeton, New Jersey, 2 April 2022. ***  As prepared for delivery Good afternoon, everyone. I'm so pleased to be here at Princeton University. It's great to be able to attend an event like this in person, and to see so many of my esteemed colleagues here today. Whenever I visit a college campus, I am reminded that some of the concepts I learned as a student can become more meaningful over time, often in surprising ways. I've thought of that as I've reflected on the significant challenges we face today-the ongoing pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In addition to staggering human suffering, these events are imposing considerable economic and financial hardships around the world. If we think back on what many of us learned in statistics about factor analysis, the pandemic and the Russian invasion can be seen as factors that have common effects across countries. But there are also idiosyncratic components that have distinct effects for the U.S. economy. I'll talk more about that today, as well as give you my views on inflation and the economic outlook. But I want to say at the outset that we at the Federal Reserve are committed to fulfilling our dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

In addition, the war in Ukraine poses significant risks to food and energy prices, as well as to global economic growth. Uniquely American Going back to my analogy of factor analysis, there are idiosyncratic components to the pandemic. And I think it's important to note areas where we have had a uniquely American experience in the COVID-19 recovery. First, the amount of direct fiscal support in the United States was larger than what most other countries provided.1 This created a sizable cushion for many households, giving them the ability to maintain spending through the pandemic and as inflation started to rise. In addition, the U.S. labor market has recovered strongly since the recession trough, and labor shortages here have become more acute than in many other countries. Part of the reason for a shortage of labor is that the U.S. labor force participation rate is still about a percentage point below its level prior to the pandemic, in what has become known as the Great Resignation. A portion of this decline reflects longer-term trends related to the aging of the population. But some left the labor market because they needed to be home to care for young children or elderly relatives. Others didn't want to risk exposure to COVID at the workplace. And many simply chose early retirement. Despite the challenges presented by the Omicron wave early this year, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6 percent in March, bringing it in line with the very low levels seen before the pandemic.