samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
To remain effective in the new environment and to have the capacity to respond to the new challenges, Central Banks also need to undertake its own transformation and modernisation. Moreover, in preserving the independence of the Central Bank and to be able to stand our ground in performing our responsibilities, Central Banks need to be standing on solid ground. This requires continuous capability enhancement and capacity building so as to be well positioned to have the ability to rise to the challenges of the new environment. This may involve significant changes to the governance arrangements, the empowering legislation, the skills required, the role of communications, the human capital management and development and the organisational culture. Indeed, capacity building is a further robust area of collaboration in the Asian region. Going forward, Asia’s participation in the global economic and financial system is set to increase exponentially. As the countries of the region connect with each other and the rest of the world, there is every reason to hope for a better future of sustained stability and enhanced growth prospects for the benefit of the regional and world economy. 4  BIS Review 74/2010

1  6  Svensk Basindustri , Ds 2001:63 (Basic industries in Sweden, Ds 2001:63)  BIS Review 56/2003  Figure 2. Capital stock per employee  M a n u fa c tu rin g  300  300  P a p e r a n d p u lp M e ta l w o rk s a n d m e ta l p ro d u c t in d u s try  250  250  1993  1991  1989  1987  1985  1983  0 1981  0 1979  50  1977  50  1975  100  1973  100  1971  150  1969  150  1967  200  1965  200  1963  SEK million  M in in g  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  So basic industries in Sweden have undergone the necessary adjustment to a modern structure and have subsequently performed very well in relation to international competitors. The contrast is striking compared with the rusting steel-industry and the problem-ridden forestry industry in the United States where attempts have been made to circumvent the necessary adjustment by way of import tariffs. While Swedish industry as a whole lost just under 20 per cent of its world market shares in relation to other OECD countries between 1970 and 1990, basic industries recovered towards the end of the 1980s.
chart 6). The latest World Economic Outlook by the IMF reports that “Global growth is in low gear (…) and downside risks persist.” The IMF now anticipates global growth of 2.9% for 2013 and 3.6% for 2014. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  A change in growth momentum is becoming evident at a global level. Chart 7 shows the purchasing managers indices (PMIs) for various countries. On the vertical axis we see the current level of PMIs and on the horizontal axis, movements over the past six months. Momentum in the emerging economies has declined recently (red ring). By contrast, the advanced economies are picking up, in particular in the euro area (green ring). Moreover, PMIs for most of these economies are above the growth threshold of 50 points. Growth in the US, especially, is very robust and, on this side of the Atlantic, the UK has exceeded expectations (blue ring). Particularly important for Switzerland were the surprisingly favourable economic indicators in Europe this summer. In the second quarter of 2013, the euro area reported positive growth for the first time in six quarters. There are encouraging signs from the peripheral economies, especially. Since mid-year, for instance, these countries have again been recording surpluses on their current accounts. Nevertheless, these signs must be put into perspective. The improvement in the peripheral economies is beginning from a very low base level and the unemployment figures are oppressive. The banking system is very fragmented and unhealthy bank balance sheets give rise to declining levels of lending.

When you look at the level of savings as a proportion of household revenue in the various countries, you see to what extent some of them are already largely taking into account the expectation that tomorrow you’ll have to face up to additional taxation and additional financing needs for public funds. FT: In the US, what is really striking about Europeans is that some of them understand that this crisis is so exceptional that in a way you may have to put aside the rules. These are exceptional circumstances. But on the other hand there are other Europeans who just feel that we’ve used so much effort and political will to put together and agree on those rules that whatever we do, we mustn’t abandon them. Now, where do you come down on these two sides of the equation? Trichet: Incidentally, we had an exceptional relationship with the other side of the Atlantic in a large number of areas, including the supply of dollar liquidity. We have had a lot of “premiers” in terms of our own decisions, and “premiers” in terms of the close cooperation and very confident cooperation with other central banks. This is something which is important. But I’m cautious. I take the Stability and Growth Pact as it is, with its provision for exceptional circumstances. But it would be a mistake not to take into account fully the situation of the various economies.
For whatever reason the market has not generated many private-sector index-linked contracts, despite the encouragement of high inflation in the past. Perhaps that is because the risks are generated not by some exogenous process, but by policy decisions. In any event, price stability is a good alternative to indexation. The move from a regime of high inflation to one of price stability can have consequences which again are best illustrated by the housing market. A credible move to inflation targeting can bring down inflation expectations relatively quickly, even if with a lag. Chart 7 shows that inflation expectations, as measured by surveys, fell steadily following the introduction of inflation targeting, and are now anchored on the 2.5% target. But a move to low inflation has other consequences that may be less easily understood. Price stability means lower nominal interest rates, and lower mortgage interest payments. It may also mean lower real interest rates if the inflation risk premium falls. But the fall in nominal rates is likely to be much larger than the fall in real rates. The lower mortgage payment largely reflects a rise in the effective duration of the loan because inflation no longer erodes the real value of the debt as quickly as before. In a low inflation world, nominal incomes rise more slowly than before and the real burden of servicing the debt persists.

Certainly, the measure which became effective in January where we reduce the reserve requirement for lending to net exporters and producers of electricity is already productive, we have already extended such loans worth approximately Euro 70 million this year, while the measure that should underpin the Denar savings for the account of the Euro savings became effective at the beginning of the year and we expect that the banks will adjust their interest rate policies to this measure in the following months. Did your forecast from the beginning of the year materialize, that the Government is not going to borrow much on the domestic market, at least in the first quarter? Within this period, since the beginning of the year, the Government is not borrowing much on the domestic market, because it has accumulated enough funds on their accounts with the  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  National Bank. Also, the funds it borrowed from abroad in the beginning of the year are still disposable on their account, because of which there was no need for additional debiting on the domestic market. However, some of the economists fear that exactly the foreign debiting is unfavorable, saying that it was made for unprofitable, unproductive purposes. How do you see this situation, is there a risk? Well, Macedonia has a lack of domestic savings, and as a country, we will need foreign savings for a long time, and that is the situation with most of the developing countries, if I may say.
Lee Hsien Loong: Credibility, confidence, dynamism: MAS in the new economic and financial landscape Address by Mr Lee Hsien Loong, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore and Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the MAS 30th Anniversary Conference, Singapore, 20 July 2001. *  *  *  Introduction It is a great pleasure for me to welcome you to MAS’ 30th Anniversary Conference. We are honoured to have with us so many distinguished central bankers, financial supervisors, market participants and economists. A new economic and financial landscape is emerging. Financial markets are becoming globalised; cross-border capital flows are larger and faster; financial institutions are consolidating and restructuring on a massive scale; and new and complex financial products are emerging, driven by technology and market pressures. Amidst these upheavals, MAS’ goals as a central bank remain unchanged: low inflation for sustained economic growth, and a sound financial sector for markets to grow and thrive. MAS is a unique organisation – it is the only institution in the world that combines responsibility for monetary policy with supervisory oversight of the entire financial sector – banking, insurance and securities. In addition, it has the task of promoting the development of Singapore as an international financial centre. I shall describe how MAS has met its responsibilities in these three areas over the past 30 years, some of the key events that have shaped our policies, and how we intend to move forward in the new economic and financial landscape.

This difference may explain why, especially in cyclical slowdown phases, monetary policy action in the euro area tends to be less aggressive than it is in the United States. In the United States, on the other hand, analysis seems to show that demand shocks tend to prevail, which puts pressure on inflation and on economic activity simultaneously. Supply shocks like those related to productivity tend to have a considerable impact on demand if agents expect them to have an impact on permanent income, affecting consumption. For example, the increase in productivity in the second half of the 1990s led to strong growth in consumption in the United States, financed by debt. In this context, the monetary policy reaction can be more decisive, and transmitted through relatively more marked and more frequent official rate adjustments. This is true in phases both of economic growth and of economic slowdown. In conclusion, if Europe’s economy and the US economy suffer shocks of a different nature, it is only natural that the responses should be partly different. Some studies suggest that the role of shocks is the predominant factor in explaining the differences in conduct between the 3 ECB and the Federal Reserve. 2.2. Economic structure: the propagation of shocks  Now let us move on to the possible differences in the two economies’ structures.
I am also delighted to welcome to our shores and the conference the Secretary General of ASBA, Mr. Rudy Araujo, the Chief Representative of the BIS Office of the Americas, Mr. Gregor Heinrick, the Senior International Adviser of the Comptroller of the Currency, Mr. Lester Miller and Advisor on Economic Crimes in the US Treasury Department, Mr. Thomas Noller. I have no doubt that your considerable experiences will add value to this conference. It is also fitting that I welcome the Hon. Minister of Finance, Dr. Ashni Singh and the Hon. Minister within the Ministry of Finance, Bishop Juan Edghill. The importance of this Conference is underscored by the fact that both Ministers enthusiastically agreed to adjust their work schedules to be present at this opening ceremony with Dr. Singh consenting to deliver the feature address. Delegates and invitees can expect a very insightful presentation by the Minister. Ladies and gentlemen, the theme of the Conference refers to the evolving financial landscape which is quite evident in many tangible forms though not always easily manageable. As a matter of fact, the changing financial landscape has brought challenges almost every step of the way. It is a testimony to the quality of our regional banking supervisors and the support and nurturing provided by the Caribbean Group of Banking Supervisors over the years that our region met the challenges posed by the changing landscape and has remained safe and sound.

The burgeoning of the non-banking financial institutions which have now become full fledged, brought with it increasing competition to the banking sector and unique products some of which cannot be clearly defined or very often understood by only a few. It also allowed for the exploitation of arbitrage and has contributed to the erosion of the orthodox predictability of the financial services industry. Regulators have had to realign their mindset to regulate and supervise these non-traditional institutions. As the financial services landscape continues to evolve, it is imperative that regulators adapt an anticipatory and proactive demeanour to address the inevitable challenges. The current world financial crises and the continuing economic uncertainties have shown us how fragile and interconnected is the global financial system. Careful attention needs to be paid to what is taking place in the major financial centres because of the contagion effect. Additionally, careful attention needs to be given to the new standards being promulgated by rule setting bodies which have profound effects on the way financial institutions are required to operate. Today every supervisory action has to be risk skewed. We have long moved away from the traditional transaction-oriented approach to supervision and as we move further away, cooperation among the regulatory bodies will become even more important given the home/host relationship and the magnitude of the risk that is inherent in such relationships. I have noted that over the last thirty years, the CGBS has endeavoured to strengthen its supervisory and regulatory framework of the regional central banks and monetary authorities.
For the first time, based on the alignment of the regulatory budgeting framework with the best national and international practices, the budget included projections for the medium-term horizon (2017 – 2019). After the overview on the activity of the Council, I would like to focus a little longer on its monetary policy decisions, in view of conformity with the main mandate of the Bank of Albania. I would like to start with a short description of the underlying macroeconomic backdrop for monetary policy decisions. 2. Albanian Economy and Monetary Policy In 2016, economic developments were positive and some of the main macroeconomic balances improved. According to INSTAT data, the Albanian economy grew at 3.5% in 2016, accelerating against the 2.6% growth rate in 2015. Economic growth was driven mainly by domestic demand, private investments and consumption, and was reflected, to a larger extent, in the expansion of the activity in services and construction sectors. In parallel, the unemployment rate fell to 14.2%, driven by the constant increase in employment, and the economic agents’ confidence hit the record high of the last five years. Likewise, public debt took a downward turn, for the first time after six years. Lastly, inflation has been upward, after the low rates recorded in the first months of the year. It settled at 2.2% in December and IINSTAT publications for the first months of 2017 point to further rise in inflation rates. For 2017, we expect these trends to consolidate.

Preparing a plan for reducing euroisation in our economy is a joint commitment by a number of authorities and the Bank of Albania is in the process of identifying measures that may be taken in this regard. Amid a complex and challenging economic and financial environment, the coordination of the monetary, micro and macro-prudential policies assumes primary importance in promoting monetary and financial stability. In 2016, the Bank of Albania has worked with the same intensity in all three aspects, aiming at an optimum calibration for them. Following, is an overview of our work for maintaining and promoting financial stability. 3. Promoting financial stability and sound lending In accordance with its mandate and institutional responsibilities, the Bank of Albania is jointly responsible for safeguarding financial stability in Albania. It communicates its assessment on the financial stability regularly, and coordinates its policies with other institutions, through the Financial Stability Advisory Group (FSAG). With regard to financial stability, during 2016, we continued to work for drafting a comprehensive framework of the macro-prudential policy and constructing macro-prudential instruments. This framework is based on recommendations of the European Systemic Risk Board and standards of the Financial Stability Board. Moreover, in accordance with its institutional mandate and responsibilities, the Bank of Albania is tasked with safeguarding the stability of the banking system and addressing potential risks that may jeopardise it.
I would not venture to suggest how these – and all the other developments we look at – will influence our next forecast in February; and it would be pointless to anticipate possible future policy decisions. I would be surprised if they radically altered the broad prospect of relatively steady progress over the next two years. But I can assure you of one thing: if the prospect – or the balance of risks around it were to change significantly – either in the context of our February forecast or subsequently – we will promptly react to that change. Despite the fact that we left interest rates on hold again last week, we have certainly not gone to sleep! We cannot guarantee that we will always remain as close to the symmetrical inflation target as we have been in recent years – the uncertainties as I have explained are too great for that degree of confidence. But that remains our aim. And I will be happy to report back to you again at your next dinner. Let me, Mr President, just conclude by congratulating you and the Chartered Institute on your achievements – not just over the past two years though I do congratulate you on that, especially, if I may, on your introduction of your new Chartered Banker qualification. But I congratulate you more broadly on your achievements over the whole 125 years since your foundation.

19.07.2018  Address on taking up office as a member of the Council of State Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Madame Chair of the Council, Council Members, Lawyers, ladies and gentlemen, First I would like to thank Mr. Alberto Aza and Mr. Juan Velarde for having agreed to be my sponsors in the ceremony today. It is a real honour for me to take up office as an ex officio member of the Council of State, the highest-ranking advisory body of the Government and a time-honoured institution in Spain. According to the Spanish Royal Academy dictionary, an “adviser” is someone who gives an opinion on what they consider beneficial or necessary for the advisee. It is indeed an important aspect of the functions of the Banco de España, in accordance with its law on autonomy, to advise the Government on economic and financial matters. From this dual status as a member of the Council of State and as governor of the Banco de España, allow me to take the opportunity here to briefly reflect on what are the main challenges facing the Spanish economy. In the past five years our economy has seen sharp growth in activity and a marked reduction in the unemployment rate, enabling a gradual correction of the imbalances built up before and during the economic crisis.
MONETARY POLICY REPORT PRESENTATION BEFORE THE FINANCE COMMISSION OF THE HONORABLE SENATE OF THE REPUBLIC∗  Rosanna Costa Governor Central Bank of Chile 5 April de 2023  The March 2023 Monetary Policy Report can be found on http://www.bcentral.cl. ∗  Introduction Mr. President of the Senate’s Finance Commission, senator Ricardo Lagos Weber, senators members of this Commission, ladies, gentlemen, On behalf of the Central Bank I thank this Commission for inviting us to present our views on recent macroeconomic developments, as well as their prospects and implications for monetary policy. This view is presented in detail in the March 2023 Monetary Policy Report, which we have published this morning. This background is also the rationale behind the decision adopted by the Board at yesterday's Monetary Policy Meeting. The presentation of this Report comes at a time when inflation is still very high. Although it has eased from the peaks of the third quarter of last year, it is still four times above the 3% target. Moreover, the core part of the CPI has been around 11% for some time now, accumulating a significant upward surprise in recent months. This is something that cannot be overlooked, as we are aware of the cost that this means for our country's families, especially the most vulnerable ones. There are several factors behind why inflation is taking so long to come down. Most important is that the economy has been unable to reverse the impacts of the overspending it accumulated between 2020 and 2021.

The truth is that after several quarters have passed since these shocks occurred and the Central Bank has made a very significant adjustment in monetary policy, high inflation continues. Moreover, core inflation, the part that best reflects local trends and pressures, has stabilized at high levels and, I must say, bringing important surprises into our projections. The natural question that arises is why is this happening? and why is inflation taking so long to come down? 58. On the one hand, it is very clear that the string of shocks we faced was very unusual. They were very big in magnitude and had a concatenation that exacerbated their effects. On 9  the other hand, there were the accumulated cost pressures on companies, the volatility of different macroeconomic variables, such as the exchange rate, and a scenario where uncertainty was high for a long period of time. To these elements must be added indexation and other second-round factors that add persistence to the inflationary effects of the mentioned shocks, as has been highlighted in previous reports. This confirms that a very important element behind this stubborn inflation is that the economy has failed to reverse the impact of the spending excesses that accumulated in earlier years. As I said a while ago, the data for the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 show that private consumption is receding, but at a slower pace than expected.