samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The monetary policy implementation framework continues to provide the FOMC with excellent control over overnight money market rates, and has proven to be flexible, including through the technical adjustment, in the face of new developments. Thank you for your attention. I look forward to the panel discussion. ###  29  The Federal Reserve is working on enhancements to the overnight bank funding rate (OBFR) to capture wholesale borrowing activity, which moved from offshore to onshore branches. Collection of these data began on October 1, 2018. There will be a review of the new data and an evaluation of how its inclusion will impact the OBFR before its expected addition. 30 For more information about this survey, see Senior Financial Officer Survey, August 29, 2018. 13

Measuring productivity in service industries is difficult. The chart shows that according to the national accounts, productivity growth is very volatile. If we smooth the data somewhat, it appears, however, that productivity growth has been relatively high through the 1990s, following low growth at the end of the 1980s. At the very end of the 1990s, however, productivity growth was weak. 10  BIS Review 47/2001  One source that may be used to analyse developments in distributive trades is Norges Bank’s database Sebra which contains figures for all limited companies that have turned in valid accounts to the Brønnøysund Register. The figures, from 1988 to 1999, show that profitability in this industry has been positive since 1993. Both measures of profitability show a slightly falling trend from the peak year 1994 to 1998. In 1999, it appears that profitability improved again. The increase in profitability from the end of the 1980s to the mid-1990s reflects a structural development in the industry since the 1980s. The most important changes were the emergence of chains and the development of shopping centres. When the upturn came in the mid-1990s, a better structure was in place. Both the chains and the shopping centres have increased their market shares. This structural development has probably made it possible to maintain satisfactory profitability at the 2 same time that profit margins have declined. Operations became more efficient. Profitability has been satisfactory despite lower mark-ups on the cost of goods. In 1998 and 1999, however, profit margins increased somewhat.
With a flexible exchange rate regime, there is nothing new about some depreciation in connection with a cyclical downturn. Numerous examples can be cited from all over the world. Basically, in a small, open economy the exchange rate often functions as a sort of shock-absorber. The problem today is that the krona’s depreciation has occurred from a level that was already weak. This amounts to a further appreciable lowering of Swedish manufacturing’s relative costs and thus an increased profit share. Our experience from the 1970s and 1980s has shown that a weak exchange rate can generate inflationary tendencies. Let us not forget what happened in recent years. When the krona weakened in connection with the crises in Mexico, Asia and Russia, Swedish exports recovered quickly and strongly. During the autumn of 1998 exports dropped, order inflows were weak and forecasts where quickly revised downwards; but just a few quarters later production for export was booming again. So it is reasonable to expect that sooner or later, although just when is not clear, Swedish exports will pick up this time as well. But the terrorist attacks have probably postponed the recovery and perhaps even accentuated the slowdown in the short run. It is important to keep an eye on the exchange rate as well as economic activity. On the domestic scene there are some bright spots. Household disposable income, for instance, looks like rising strongly next year.

In particular, there has been much greater cross-border activity in Europe, supported by fully-integrated pan-European systems for making wholesale payments. But many systems for the trading, clearing and settlement of securities are still fragmented nationally by sector. Market firms are keen to see consolidation of the arrangements for clearing and settling securities trades, where costs are still considerably greater in Europe than in the US. Even without mergers, market firms can of course trade remotely from a single location, though this does not address the issue of duplicate investment costs. But it seems that full rationalisation may take years to implement and, while the broad vision of integrated European systems is widely shared, there are still differences of view about how best to achieve it. The third change is the diversification of investment. The launch of the euro has begun to encourage a shift in funds away from the particular national market in which they have traditionally been invested, and towards investment across the euro area as a whole. This helps to explain the increasing use by fund managers of European benchmark indices against which to measure investment performance, rather than national benchmark indices. Portfolio diversification has so far been rather slower than originally expected. But there is evidence that diversification is continuing to take place, and it is expected to pick up over time. Fourth, financial institutions themselves are consolidating, including in some cases across borders, so that they can better provide a service to clients across the Single European Market as a whole.
During periods of low growth and low yield, banks should refrain from unsound search-for-yield behaviours or facilitating aggressive search-for-yield behaviours that could build-up systemic risk and cause financial instability. Thirdly, behaviour and culture within financial institutions must gear towards good governance, soundness, and sustainability to pre-empt unwarranted risks. During the last Asian and global financial crisis, excessive risk-taking behaviour was one key driver. Short-sighted views on risk were embedded in the practice of management and employees. This was defined and reflected in the structure on rewards, accountability, personalities, as well as check and balance mechanisms, or lack thereof, within the organization. More recently, the manipulation of the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) which has done serious reputational 3  damage to the banking industry and reduced public trust was an example of misbehaviour fostered by inappropriate cultures. While events such as the financial crisis, and other scandals have continuously triggered waves of regulatory reforms, those are not enough and our work is far from over. Today, there are still examples of poor corporate governance and misconduct resulting from the root-cause of inappropriate behaviour and culture within banks. Recently, fraudulent practices in a large global bank were exposed where bank accounts were opened without customers’ consent or knowledge. Banks themselves need to create culture that encourages management and employees to have the right values and behaviour. This behaviour and culture cannot be detected quantitatively and similarly to the way we assess financial data, or risk-taking investment.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Demography and economic policy – the challenges ahead Summary of a colloquium by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, on “Chances et défis du vieillissement” (opportunities and challenges of demographic ageing), at the University of Geneva, Geneva, 10 November 2006. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  What will Switzerland look like in 2050? The demographic changes under way will have a strong impact on the future demographic landscape, with regard to both the working population and the older age segments. The ageing society poses two major challenges for economic policy: ensuring the production capacity of the Swiss economy as well as the continuance of the social security scheme. To address these challenges, an economic policy that promotes productivity increases while guaranteeing economic growth must be implemented with immediate effect. In line with this economic policy, adjustments must be made to our social security system.
Figure 2 shows our interest rate adjustments on the vertical axis and our inflation forecasts’ deviation from the target two years ahead on the horizontal axis. As we can see there is a clear relationship between forecast deviations from target and our decisions, but there are also points in Figure 2 that deviate from the average behaviour. These points chiefly relate to the forecasts we produced when we chose not to counter the effects of energy prices on inflation. So it seems that we have essentially acted in line with how we have said we will normally act. Yet another way to evaluate the result of our policy is to investigate whether it is credible. The most important factor here is that inflation expectations 2 years ahead and beyond have been firmly anchored to our target since the regime was stabilised in 1997-1998. That conclusion holds up fairly well regardless of the method used (see Figure 3). Our ambition to be transparent derives, among other things, from a desire to avoid unnecessary movements or unease in the financial markets. To illustrate our performance in this regard the Riksbank has conducted a number of studies over the years, of which some have been published.3 The picture we’ve received is that our policy has essentially been intelligible and that it hasn’t resulted in any sharp fluctuations in financial prices that could have been avoided.

Faced with these foreseeable changes in the regulatory and supervisory framework, and irrespective of whether the ongoing assessment exercise is likely to be generally satisfactory, Spanish banks must evidently seize every opportunity to strengthen their capital position as the improvement observed in financial conditions progressively firms, be this through gains in efficiency, retained profits or new securities issues. 5. Conclusions  To conclude, I believe the major structural changes sweeping the banking industry will have been reiterated in this conference. We should assume that in the future the banking sector will be better capitalised and safer. As a counterpoint, however, it will likely be smaller and, probably, less profitable. All these changes will have appreciable consequences for banks’ business models and competitive strategies. The concurrence of this global process and the start-up of the banking union in Europe poses, in the short term, additional and considerable logistic and strategic challenges. Yet far from being a disadvantage, the banking union will over the medium term improve the European banking sector’s competitive capacity. Banks will benefit not only from a genuinely unified market but also, more directly, from the added strength this project brings to the monetary union. And the soundness of banks and the stability of the financial system as a whole will hinge crucially on the proper functioning of this union. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
This has undergone seismic shifts over recent years. Charts 22 and 23 show the proportions of UK households renting or with a mortgage. Those under 50 have seen a secular rise in renting and a fall in mortgaged households. Among young adults, these shifts have been dramatic. In 1977, one in four 25-year-olds were renters. By 2014, that fraction had risen to two-thirds. The number of households aged 21 to 25 with a mortgage has fallen by a factor of three. While these trends in housing tenure are long-lived, the financial crisis has clearly amplified them. Since 2007, the share of renters among those aged between 25 and 34 has risen by 12 percentage points. Among 35–49 year olds, the share of renters has increased by over two thirds. By contrast, those over 50 have seen a much smaller change in housing tenures. These shifts are likely to reflect the combined effects of a rise in UK house prices relative to income and, since the crisis, a reduction in mortgage availability for the young. Whether someone owns or rents a property need not affect their well-being, other things equal. But when it comes to the UK housing market, other things are rarely equal. The combination of rising demand for rental property, and constrained supply, has led to more rapid rises in rents than in household incomes. As a fraction of household income, rents have doubled since the early 1980s from around 10% to over 20% today.

Increased global engagement in Shariah matters among scholars, practitioners and regulators through international discussion platforms, together with the massive flow of knowledge, ideas, technology and people across borders also cumulatively foster a greater global understanding on the practices in Islamic finance. Innovation has fundamentally transformed the global financial landscape at a rapid pace and is undeniably a driver to sustain growth and to secure the competitive advantage of financial market participants. In the context of Islamic finance, the broadening of the frontier of product development can be further propelled by intensifying exploration, research and development initiatives and through intellectual discourse and engagements. It is duty-bound for us to continuously expand the dimensions of Islamic finance, hence contributing towards improving financial stability and economic prosperity in the interest of the local and global community. I am confident that this conference and the opportunities presented for deliberation on the research papers will be a fruitful one. I wish all delegates and participants a successful conference. With the lafaz Bismillahir Rahmanir Rahim, it is my pleasure and honour to declare open the 2nd Foundations of Islamic Finance Series Conference. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
The lesson is that today’s oil price should not be regarded as a forecast of future prices, not even if the level is priced into long-term futures. Substantial uncertainty must be expected. The management of the Petroleum Fund will be part of the State Pension Fund. This essentially involves a name change. The capital will not be earmarked for pension payments. On the other hand, the intention has long been for the capital in the Petroleum Fund to be used as a means of easing the burden in connection with the large pensioner cohorts expected from about 2015. With the assumptions set out in the last national budget, only a share of the rise in pension payments ahead can be financed by an increase in returns on the Fund. The bulk of the increase must be financed by higher ordinary tax revenues. A number of analysts have calculated that with high oil prices the Petroleum Fund will be sufficiently large to finance pension payments. Norges Bank has analysed the uncertainty surrounding such expectations. We have looked at the probability that the capital in the Petroleum Fund will be sufficient by calculating developments in market value and pension payments using a model with uncertainty. We have used Statistics Norway’s projections for pension payments. Standard assumptions concerning uncertainty with respect to returns on the Fund’s investments have been incorporated. The main uncertainty is nevertheless associated with the production volume and prices for oil and gas.

I recommend giving it a read: the report itself is a treasure trove of data, and the results do you credit. The average solvency capital requirement (SCR) coverage ratio on the French market climbed from 222% in 2016 to 238% in 2017. What’s more, in the first quarter of 2018, the French insurance market overtook Germany and the United Kingdom to become Europe’s number-one market, with over EUR 35 billion in direct premiums written in non-life insurance and over EUR 2.100 trillion in technical provisions. It also leads in investment capacity: commanding total assets of EUR 2.7 trillion in September 2018, France’s insurance sector is far and away the largest institutional investor in Europe, accounting for over one-third of the total assets of euro area insurers. In comparison, France makes up 21% of euro area GDP. Insurers, then, are a crucial asset for France, and their critical role in financing the economy can and indeed must grow further. Corporate equity is vital to innovation and hence to a vibrant economy, but in mid-2018 equity was equivalent to just 77% of GDP in the euro area and 76% in France, compared with 124% in the United States. II. Tapping into regulatory opportunities. I would like to start this section off by noting that France’s introduction of a flat tax on capital income on 1 January has not had the slightest detrimental effect on life insurance, despite fears on this score within your industry.
Svein Gjedrem: Turbulence in credit markets – mortgage financing at home and abroad Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the annual meeting of the Norwegian Savings Banks Association, Hamar, 11 October 2007. The text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The speech does not contain assessments of the economic situation or the monetary stance. *  *  *  Financial markets in different countries have become more closely interwoven over the past few years. New participants have appeared and new and more complex products to diversify risk have been introduced ― across sectors and across national borders. Some of these products were put to the test for the first time during this autumn’s turbulence in credit and money markets. Triggered by problems in the subprime mortgage market in the US, the turbulence quickly spread to other financial market segments. In my remarks today, I will try to describe the driving forces behind these developments and the contagion effects on the Norwegian money and credit markets, with a discussion of the lessons to be drawn. Turbulence in the financial sector  The US subprime mortgage market has expanded sharply in recent years. These mortgages usually have low interest rates at the beginning of the loan term followed by higher interest rates after a period. Subprime mortgages are based on expectations of a rise in house prices. Borrowers can maintain their debt-servicing capacity by refinancing their mortgage when house prices rise.

And no Norwegian banks operate in the same way as the British bank Northern Rock, with its extensive debt-financing in money markets. 3  In Norway, the premium is one percentage point. 4  John. M. Keynes (1931): “The Consequences to the banks of the collapse of money values”, Essays in persuasion, and Wolf, Martin (2007): “Life Could Yet Follow Death for the Idea of Securitisation”, Financial Times, 3 October 2007. 8  BIS Review 115/2007  Contagion occurred because a substantial share of Norwegian banks obtain financing abroad. The eurodollar market has been a frequently used source of financing for Norwegian banks. This is both because Norwegian banks have substantial dollar lending and because this market is used as a source of NOK, i.e. banks borrow in dollars and then swap them for NOK. In the early 1990s, a market was established for pure krone liquidity, called the NIDR (Norwegian Interbank Deposit Rate) market, but this market has few participants and low liquidity. Since the beginning of August, the eurodollar market has not functioned well. This has affected the Norwegian money market. The difference between the money market rate and the expected key policy rate has widened considerably, although less than in major markets abroad. This has resulted in a rise in banks’ borrowing costs – at least for a period. This might have an impact on banks’ profitability. Turnover time for deposits and loans in the interbank market has also increased and loan terms have decreased.
And focus the message on the needs of those shaping our economy, companies and households, not those trading financial instruments. This is the direction the forward guidance puck, in my view, needs now to travel. Whatever Next? From September I am moving a mile west from one roughly 270-year old building to another – the Royal Society of Arts (RSA). The RSA is an 18th century Enlightenment institution. Like the Bank, it has delivered large and lasting social change by combining brains and hands. Although no longer in the public sector I will remain a public servant, seeking social change on some of the signature issues of the day - good work, fair education, lifelong skills, natural capital, place and belonging, good governance. Before I start, I shall be writing a book for students on Why Economics Matters. If history is any guide, it is unlikely to trouble the bestseller list. I have written extensively about the failures of economics, which are well captured by Robert Heilbroner’s “mathematics has brought rigour to economic, but it has also brought mortis.” Yet, more than at any time in my professional life, economics really does matter, especially to young people writing the next chapter. The aim of any job is to leave the place slightly better than when you arrived. While I can claim no credit, the Bank I leave is a far more transparent, powerful, analytical, agile, engaged, diverse and meritocratic institution than the one I joined.

The Bank of Albania deems that though the cautious consumer behaviour has not made any direct impact on economic growth over this period, it has helped keep risk premia on track and has led to low long-term interest rates, thus contributing to boosting private investments. Looking forward, we deem that the fiscal policy should retain its orientation toward fiscal indicators sustainability, supporting Albania’s economic and monetary stability and being an important pre-requisite for a stable and long-term growth. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Foreign demand continued to support the growth of exports and economic activity throughout 2012. Trade deficit narrowed by 7.9% in the third quarter, reflecting mainly the good performance of exports. The latter increased by 17% in the third quarter, retaining the previous quarters’ positive trend. On the other hand, imports performed poorly, reflecting the low demand for consumption and investment. In the third quarter, imports recorded positive annual growth of only 0.7%. Performance of monetary indicators attests to moderate pressures on monetary inflation. The annualised broad money growth rate decelerated to 6.8% in September. Reflecting the sluggish domestic demand, economic agents’ demand for money has been low. The weak demand for money has been associated with a constantly falling contribution of funding from public and private sectors to increasing the monetary supply throughout 2012. Private sector’s contribution continued to slow during this month; its annual growth rate reached 4.2%, recording one of the lowest historical levels.