samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
While this upturn in home prices is encouraging, it has been considerably weaker than in other parts of our region and also weaker than nationally. The New York Fed’s measures of regional credit conditions suggest continued financial challenges for families here. As of the first quarter of 2013, average debt per person was about $ in Connecticut and over $ in Fairfield County – little changed over several years. The county’s delinquency rate on that debt is now 5.7 percent, similar to the national average. And the mortgage crisis continues to take a toll on local homeowners. As of the first quarter, about 6 percent of mortgage debt in Fairfield County was 90-plus days delinquent, slightly higher than the national delinquency rate. It is also important to recognize the county’s strengths that will support recovery and the rise in household income over the longer term – over and above just being close to a thriving New York City. In particular, the above-average educational attainment of residents and the numerous educational institutions position the area well to move into the expanding knowledge-based economy. Also, its diverse industry mix has a good representation of jobs in high-paying sectors and the area maintains its attractiveness as a location for corporate headquarters. Thank you for your kind attention and I will now be happy to take a few questions. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches

It lowers the real interest rate and contributes towards further increasing demand. When confidence in the inflation target is weak and inflation expectations are not well anchored, the result thus becomes larger fluctuations in the economy. We went through such a development in Sweden in the 1970s and 1980s, when the fixed exchange rate did not act as a sufficiently strong nominal anchor, which in turn resulted in recurrent cost crises and devaluations. The reason that debaters do not address the problems of abandoning the inflation target could, of course, be that they consider that the process of inflation has changed so much that central banks simply no longer can reach their inflation targets. This seems after all to be quite a common view in the debate. This would imply that it is not meaningful to set up targets for inflation, as it is determined by factors outside monetary policy. However, this is an assumption that, were it correct, would actually turn much of what is considered accepted within economic science on its head. Economic paradigms do change every now and again, of course. But, at a minimum, one may argue that quite a heavy burden of proof lies on those claiming it is no longer possible to choose an inflation target. Among other things, they would have to disprove Milton Friedman’s thesis that inflation is basically a monetary phenomenon. 17 Having said this, in practice, it is probably more of a gradual scale than a binary zero-one solution.
Here I would focus on reducing the public sector wage bill, mainly by lowering employment levels, as government is currently doing; reforming the provision of pensions and health care; rationalizing social welfare schemes, including by eliminating benefits that have outlived their usefulness and extending means testing; and transforming the unemployment benefit system into an effective instrument of employment creation rather than of social dependence. With regard to competitiveness-related problems, there is a need to address remaining rigidities in the labour market – including by ensuring that wage costs reflect productivity levels; investing more in education and providing suitable incentives to unleash the potential inherent in the country’s human resources; and improving the business environment, in particular by lowering the costs of operating in Malta. While it is beyond dispute that the country has undergone significant change for the better in these first years of the new century, it is equally true that the world around us has become a much more dynamic place in the meantime, and competitive pressures are such that unless we adapt to them rapidly, we will have to accept lower living standards. 6. Euro yields have risen yet you have left the central intervention rate unchanged… This proves that our limited monetary policy tools have not been put in the shed, as you put it in an earlier question! We still have a degree of autonomy. As I said earlier, the exchange rate is the nominal anchor of our monetary policy.

And in private services earnings actually fell. But this reflects the impact of significantly lower bonus payments this year than last, and is likely to unwind as the bonus season comes to an end. If output growth were to pick up during the course of this year, then some of the recent fall in average hours worked - which appears to reflect a degree of labour hoarding - would be likely to unwind, leading to an increase in earnings growth. So the MPC will continue to monitor carefully developments in both wages and prices. The fourth and final price I want to discuss is the level of interest rates. The MPC sets interest rates in order to try to maintain an overall balance between demand and supply in the economy, thus keeping inflation close to the target. What will happen to interest rates depends, in part, on the response of the three other prices - the exchange rate, the oil price and wages - to developments in the economy. As resources shift from private consumption into both the public sector and net exports, there might be considerable movements in the exchange rate, the oil price, and even wages. The path of interest rates that will be necessary to keep inflation close to the target will depend on what happens to those prices. That is why it is extremely difficult to predict what that path will be. The MPC will take decisions on rates one month at a time.
Caleb M Fundanga: Brief summary of economic and financial developments in Zambia Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the official launch of Standard Chartered Bank Crossroads Branch, Lusaka, 25 September 2007. *  *  *  The Chairman of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia, Mr George Sokota Members of the Board of Directors of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia The Managing Director of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia, Mr. Tom Aaker Distinguished Guests Members of the Press And may I simply say Ladies and Gentlemen I am very pleased to be here today to officially open the new Crossroads Branch of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia. Mr. Chairman, as I have stated at various fora before, it is important for banks in Zambia to take the lead in implementing actions, which contribute to the development of the financial infrastructure and support the development of our economy. As you may be aware, Ladies and Gentlemen, we would like banks to: •  Open new branches, such as this one, to enhance convenience for our people to access banking services, thereby improving financial service delivery and empowering our citizens;  •  Provide loans to the productive sector to support economic activity, such as Mr. Sokota just described; and  •  Invest in latest state of the art technology, such as Standard Chartered’s new electronic Branch Banking platform.

Nearly 50 percent of Texas public schoolchildren are Hispanic, but only 38 percent of high school graduates are Hispanic. Some 54 percent of non-Hispanic whites and 48 percent of non-Hispanic blacks age 18 to 24 with a high school degree were in college in 2008. The percentage of Hispanics was only 43 percent. Within the age cohort between 25 and 64, only 14 percent of native-born Texas Latinos have college degrees; 23 percent of native-born Hispanics in Texas age 25 to 64 are high school dropouts. No matter how you slice it or dice it, it is glaringly clear that Hispanics in Texas are failing at school. This must be corrected. If not, they will continue to trail in economic achievement. And all of us – white, black, Asian-American, Hispanic or non-Hispanic – will suffer the consequences of economic underperformance. Texas is a remarkable place. We embody the “can do” spirit. My favorite Texas historian is T.R. Fehrenbach. I recommend his book, Lone Star: A History of Texas and the Texans, to anybody who wishes to understand what makes this place unique.
For example, when we look at how the capital ratio has changed since the financial crisis, we should bear in mind that the comparison is not like-for-like; today this ratio is constructed on the basis of much stricter definitions and criteria than those in 2009. Likewise, when we assess our ability to pre-empt and respond to a crisis, we should consider the European supervisory institutional framework we have today, which did not exist just 10 years back. Resilience of the sector in the face of crisis Though oft-repeated, allow me to reiterate a message: the point of departure of the European and Spanish banking sectors is much sounder than it was when the financial crisis burst, enabling it to be part of the solution instead of part of the problem. Although we should view the results with all due prudence, the recent SSM and Banco de España stress tests evidence, overall, the system’s resilience in the face of a shock such as that we are experiencing, despite the natural dispersion in individual results. 2  In conclusion, we have a stronger and more resilient banking system, subject to more rigorous regulations and to pan-European centralised supervision. Macroprudential framework The elements I have just described give shape to what we know as microprudential supervision, and which, until recently, we simply called supervision.

First, in general terms, Europe is more advanced both economically and institutionally than Asia (even if there are notable exceptions, such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Korea). 9 Advanced economies have higher “debt tolerance,” because of their stronger institutions, a more favourable composition of debt and a more stable fiscal revenue base (less dependent on a small set of goods, such as commodities). 7  8  See: Dornbusch, R., I. Goldfajn and R.O. Valdés (1995). “Currency crises and collapses,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, pp. 219–293. See: Eichengreen, B., R. Hausmann and U. Panizza (2005). “The pain of original sin”, in B. Eichengreen and R. Hausmann (eds.) Other people’s money, Chicago University Press, pp. 87–102. 9  One measure of institutional quality is reported in the World Economic Forum’s annual Global Competitiveness Report. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Thus while the dynamics of financial crises may be similar, the level of debt at which they occur may be different. Of course, this can be a mixed blessing. The ability to accumulate more exposures may permit the pre-crisis boom to last longer. But it may also mean that the subsequent downfall is deeper. The second difference is that, by having a national currency, even if it is rigidly pegged to an external anchor, as in the case of Argentina’s dollar currency board prior to 2001, the EMEs retain scope to devalue.
Initially, we planned that this restructuring option and incentives for banks to restructure loans would remain effective until 30 September, but then we decided to extend these measures until the end of the year. The number of loan restructuring applications is currently going down, but restructuring is still requested. Many companies have not had enough time to recover. Furthermore, they could also be affected by restrictions implemented in a range of regions. Therefore, just a few days ago we decided to extend this option for SME loan restructuring until the end of 2021 Q1, and this applies to both new and repeated restructurings. We are certainly going to monitor further how the situation changes. Moreover, I would like to remind you that we extended the regulatory relaxations for banks related to provisioning for restructured loans until 1 July. This privilege is also available to large corporates until 1 April. This concession period will also cover loans that will be restructured in 2021 Q1. In addition, we recommend that lenders and credit history bureaus do not take into account these restructurings as a negative factor in borrowers’ credit histories. I know that many small and medium-sized enterprises focused on this issue and this is a sensitive topic for them. I would like to thank OPORA RUSSIA for becoming the mediator in the process of loan restructuring.

•  I am glad there is good progress on the joint venture by Temasek Holdings and Khazanah Nasional, Pulau Indah Ventures Sdn Bhd to co-develop two separate sites in Medini. •  Other significant projects include a $ billion integrated eco-friendly tech-park by Ascendas and Malaysia’s UEM Land Berhad in Nusajaya (one of the five flagship  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  zones in Iskandar). Once completed, the park will accommodate a range of industries including electronics and precision engineering. •  Just in the last month, we have seen other significant investment commitments in Iskandar reported by Singapore companies. Iskandar Malaysia will enhance the complementary space between our two economies. It is a win-win. To ensure continued progress in Iskandar, Singapore and Malaysia will continue to take steps to improve connectivity, cross-border trade facilitation, and immigration processes. Conclusion I would like to conclude by emphasising once again that I am basically optimistic about the prospects in our bilateral and regional cooperation. We face many challenges in this post-Global Financial Crisis era. But the opportunities for us in Asia are intact, and our ability to cooperate with each other to achieve our full potential as a region is an asset for all our countries. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
Such instruments would also help to underpin the consensus that monetary policy should focus on the path of nominal demand at the aggregate level, with macroprudential policy seeking to address over exuberance in particular sectors or in credit markets generally and the resilience of the banking system. Slow moving threats to stability: a continuing challenge If the authorities could make a regime along those lines work in practice, we would reduce one threat to stability: out-of-control credit booms that undermine the stability of the financial system and so jeopardise the supply of credit that lubricates economic activity. I do think that we should direct some of our energies to that, alongside making the financial system more resilient in case, as is inevitable, “credit boom and bust” cannot be eliminated. But I should flag that this would not wave away all potential threats to stability. A lesson of this (and past) crises is that cumulative imbalances in the domestic and global economy  11  Blanchard O, G Dell’Ariccia and P Mauro (2010), “Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy”, IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/10/03, February 12, 2010. 12  A point made in conversation by, for example, Anil Kashyap. 8  BIS Review 21/2010  eventually come home to roost. That would surely have been so on this occasion even if our banking systems had proved more resilient. A great challenge for monetary policymakers everywhere is that external and internal imbalances typically grow slowly, and that the timing and manner of their unravelling is highly uncertain.

Both headline and core inflation are expected to edge up from last year despite the government’s attempts to contain inflation through administrative price controls. As such, the Bank of Thailand continues to gradually normalize the policy interest rate. At present, the policy rate is still deviated from the norm as the real policy rate remains negative at around –0.7 percent. Thus, interest rate normalization is another feature for the year 2011. Last Wednesday rate hike marked the 8th increase in the policy rate to 3.25 percent. Many have asked at what level of interest rate the Bank of Thailand’s target is. There is no definite answer to when the upward cycle of interest rate will end. Theoretically, a desirable interest rate path would be the path that leads economy to its potential output level without exerting excessive inflationary pressure on the economy. However, this state is subjected to change with economic developments. Thus, the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision must be based on their assessments of current economic development and outlook at each time of the meeting. Having said that, even if inflation has been curbed and the economy is on its normal trend growth, Thailand should not be complacent with economic normalcy. We need to look beyond normalcy which is the second part of my focus today. Moving the country forward will be more challenging than the past especially now when competition intensifies across the globe. Raising productivity will be the key objective of economic development in this regard.
Since the US crisis will most dominantly affect the Thai economy through the trade channel, we also have to watch for growth trends in Europe and Asia to see how extensive the adverse impacts of the US recession are. Nevertheless, during the first three months of 2008, the value of exports continued to grow strongly by 21.1 percent. But, this was outpaced by the growth of imports of 34.5 percent, resulting in a small trade deficit. However, we expect the overall trade balance in 2008 to be in surplus due to the expansion of exports to new markets. As for the current account, we expect that the surplus will amount to about 4-7 billion US dollar for the whole year, up from the surplus of 3.1 billion US dollar for the first quarter of 2008. At present, the focus of monetary policy is tilting more toward price stability. Data for April showed headline inflation at 6.2 percent and core inflation at 2.1 percent, respectively. These compared to the average first quarter data of 5.0 percent for headline inflation and 1.5 percent for core inflation. At this juncture, it is clear that global price pressure is yet to peak as world demand for oil and commodities continue to face tight demand-supply situation. We also cannot discount the possibility of potentially adverse geopolitical events, unfavorable weather condition, and further dollar slide which could drive up oil prices in the future.

Tarisa Watanagase: Thailand – its resiliency and medium-term challenges Address by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Thailand Investment Forum, Euromoney Conferences, Bangkok, 13 May 2008. *  *  *  Distinguished Speakers and Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted to join you at this gathering of prominent members of Thailand’s public and business sectors. This year’s Thailand Investment Forum by the Euromoney Conferences comes at an opportune time when we see clearer signs of the Thai economy gaining growth momentum, supported by government policy measures and revival of private sector confidence. Nevertheless, there are also imminent downside risks predominantly from external fronts, which could hinder the continuation of this positive trend. I will focus the first part of my talk on Thailand’s resiliency to achieve healthy growth in 2008 and beyond. The second part will highlight key issues on competitiveness and strength of Thailand’s economic future in the face of trade and financial globalization. Judging from the list of experts from whom you will be hearing over the next two days, I would like to share with you my perspective from the policy making side. Ladies and Gentlemen, Thailand’s record of economic resiliency to adverse shocks and uncertainties in the past should clearly demonstrate the strong underlying fundamentals. In 2007, notwithstanding political uncertainties which dented confidence since September 2006, the Thai economy grew by 4.8 percent. Overall, the main growth driver continued to be net exports, which contributed to almost 60 percent of the overall GDP growth.
Although the correction started with a bursting property bubble in the US, it has expanded into a global financial crisis and brought on recession throughout the advanced economies and a sharp deceleration of growth elsewhere. The immediate priority is to deal with this downswing. The extraordinary measures we have taken in this country and others are having a positive impact but we may need to do more. We must also learn  6  BIS Review 145/2008  some lessons for policy in the medium term including the need for far better coordination of policy internationally and the need for some new policy instruments alongside interest rates to dampen the financial cycle. Chart 1: GDP and employment  Source: ONS (including Labour Force Survey)  BIS Review 145/2008  Chart 2: House prices and earnings  Source: Halifax, Nationwide, ONS and Bank calculations  7  Chart 3: Major UK banks’ customer funding gap, household saving ratio and foreign interbank deposits  Source: Bank of England, Dealogic, ONS, published accounts and Bank calculations. Chart 4: CPI and households’ inflation expectations for the year ahead (scaled to match CPI on average)  Sources: The AlphaMonitor: consumer, YouGovAlpha, Bank of England, Barclays Capital, Citigroup, GfK NOP, research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission and YouGov.

BIS Review 99/2008  1  In line with this mission statement, the BoZ is responsible for regulating and supervising banks and the following types of NBFIs: •  Leasing and finance companies;  •  Housing financial institutions (building societies);  •  Savings and credit institutions;  •  Development finance institutions;  •  Microfinance institutions; and  •  Bureaux de change. As at June 30, 2008 there were 14 commercial banks and 71 NBFIs (see Appendix I). Currently, commercial banks dominate Zambia’s financial system with total assets and liabilities amounting to K14,465,045 million as at June 30, 2008 (about 31.8% of GDP). The reference NBFIs, notably, the leasing and finance companies (11, two of which are under statutory management of the Bank of Zambia 2 ), building societies (3), microfinance institutions licensed under the BFSA (15), development finance institutions (1) and savings and credit institutions (2). The combined balance sheet of these institutions, as at June 30, 2008 amounted to about 7.9% of the aggregated balance sheet of the commercial banks (see Table 1). 4.0  Access to financial services  In May 2007, here in Livingstone, the World Bank organized a Southern Africa roundtable discussion on the launch of their new report entitled, “Making Finance Work for Africa”. A common understanding arising from this debate was that financial exclusion has negative economic and social effects on society. These include the following: i.