samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
[INF*RES*AS]  MONETARY POLICY REPORT FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT PRESENTATION BEFORE THE FINANCE COMMITTEE OF THE HONORABLE SENATE OF THE REPUBLIC  Mario Marcel Governor Central Bank of Chile 4 December 2017    Both the Monetary Policy Report of December 2017 and the Financial Stability Report of the second half of 2017 can be seen at http://www.bcentral.cl. Introduction Mr. President of the Finance Committee of the Senate, senator Carlos Montes, senators members of this Committee, ladies, gentlemen, Thank you for your invitation to present the vision of the Board of the Central Bank of Chile (CBC) about the latest macroeconomic and financial developments, prospects and implications for monetary and financial policy. This vision is detailed in our Monetary Policy Report (MP Report) of December 2017 and Financial Stability Report (FSR) of the second half 2017. I would like to start by noting that these are the last institutional reports presented in the format that has prevailed since the time of the severe Great Financial Crisis. As we explained to the Honorable Senate last September, as from January 1st, the CBC will begin to apply a new calendar and format for the Monetary Policy Meetings as well as for the presentation of our two Reports. In particular, the MP Report has been programmed for pre-established dates that will coincide with the monetary policy meetings of March, June, September and December of each year.

Thus, the presentation to the Senate will no longer be an extensive description of the Report, to become an institutional appearance where the Bank's Board will deliver a synthesis of the messages in its reports, explain the reasons behind its policy decisions and answer the questions and comments that may arise. This will be a challenge for both parties. At the Board, we will try our best to be up to it. Another element of change is that this is the last presentation to this Committee with the participation of Deputy Governor Sebastián Claro. It has been ten years since the current President of the Republic appointed him in her first presidential term and was approved by this Senate. Since then, Sebastián has served his position with commitment, capacity, accountability and team work, as I am sure you have observed. On behalf of the other Board members and the staff of the Bank, I want to take this opportunity to thank him for his enormous contribution to the Institution and the country. Alongside these elements of change, however, many more continue. As usual, we come to report on the recent macroeconomic developments and share with you our vision about future prospects and risks facing the Chilean economy. This institutional continuity is important when we are only a few months away from a new Congress and a new Administration, a transition that always involves challenges and in which it is important for the newcomers to be familiar with the prospects for the economy.
3.1  Money supply and its constituents  Money velocity is forecasted to be relatively stable during 2004. This assumption is based on keeping up the monetary developments trends of 2003 even for 2004. Thus: •  Inflation is expected to be within the target of the Bank of Albania  •  Interests rates are expected to be stable or in downward trend  •  The government demand, which is also the main source of requiring funds, is expected to be at the same level, 2.7 percent of the GDP  •  The growth rate demand for the economy is expected to be almost the same as the 2003 one. Based on these considerations, the M3 circulation velocity - as to trimesters - is presented as follows: Table 3. Money circulation velocity in 2004. (GDP as to trimesters*100 / M3) Dec '02  March  June  42.9  43.9  43.9  September Dec '03 42.9  42.9  March  June  44.1  43.3  September Dec '04 43.2  43.1  Based on this forecast, the money supply is expected to grow by 10.6 percent or by Lek 47.4 billion. 3.1.1  Money supply constituents  The ratio of money outside banks versus the money supply noticed during 2003 is not expected to undergo significant changes during the coming year. However, an upward trend of the foreign currency deposits ratio versus M3 is expected, bringing about a decrease of the Lek deposits weight versus money supply.

The comparatively large size of these two sectors made Irish public finances vulnerable to the bust of the cycle, leaving personal income tax as the shock absorber until the economy recovers. Interestingly, the fiscal package that is included in the Irish adjustment programme with the IMF is of a comparable magnitude to the pre-crisis fiscal expansion. Surveillance has clearly failed to understand this phenomenon. More attention needs to be paid to the overall size and interconnectedness of the financial sector as a whole in the various countries, and to the ability of these countries to absorb shocks affecting not only a single financial institution but the whole financial system. It is now fashionable to stress-test the banks. It would probably be appropriate to stress-test countries as well. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Conclusions Let me conclude by suggesting that surveillance of the world economy, in particular some of its systemically relevant members, has to focus more on the sustainability of their policies, in particular their fiscal and monetary policies. Some policies may appear to be sustainable on the basis of assumptions which may turn out to be simplistic, especially those relating to long-term trends of growth and inflation. In particular they may not take sufficiently into consideration the impact of broader developments under way in the global economy. As Keynes said, we may be “slaves of some defunct economist”.
In recent months, the Riksbank has decided on • • •  A lending programme to the banks of SEK 500 billion to facilitate lending to companies Purchases of covered bonds for SEK 145 billion Purchases of municipal bonds for SEK 30 billion  10 [25]  • • • • • •  Purchases of government bonds, in addition to those decided in 2019, of SEK 25 billion Purchases of commercial paper for SEK 32 billion 9 Lending of USD 60 billion to the banks Easing of collateral requirements so the banks can borrow from the Riksbank more easily Lower interest rate on the lending facility, to 0.2 percentage points above the repo rate (from 0.75 percentage points). Offering the banks unlimited loans against collateral with a three-month maturity in weekly extraordinary market operations  Common to many of these measures is that they lead to significant changes on the Riksbank's balance sheet. It may also be necessary to adjust the repo rate, although there is not very much scope for interest rate cuts at present. However, the major problem at the moment is not that the interest rate is too high, the risk of a credit crunch is more about the major difficulties faced by many Swedish companies and households. When the banks are to decide to give loans, they must of course consider whether the borrower will be able to repay the loan.

The road ahead Fortunately, the U.S. economy is very flexible and resilient. Although it does not adjust as fast as classical economists envisioned, in the United States prices and wages respond relatively quickly. Moreover, policymakers have been aggressive in supporting the economy by easing monetary policy and by implementing a large fiscal-stimulus program. As a result, although the unemployment rate remains unacceptably high, output has begun to expand again, and we appear to be on the verge of seeing sustained growth in employment. We’ll know more about this tomorrow when the March employment figures are released. Equity prices have recovered sharply and home prices and commercial real estate prices appear to be stabilizing. Household indebtedness is declining, due to a combination of debt  BIS Review 41/2010  5  repayment and credit that has been written off by lenders. After falling off a cliff during the first half of 2009, global trade has rebounded. Both U.S. exports and U.S. manufacturing output have expanded rapidly over the past six months (Chart 17). Although these are encouraging developments, I believe that the recovery is likely to be quite muted compared with past recoveries. This comes back to the framework discussed earlier. For faster growth, we need ex ante investment to rise relative to saving and ex ante spending to rise relative to the current trend of income. But it is difficult to see where this impulse will come from in the near term.
The ECB should support the adjustment process in the Member States in the best manner possible, namely by providing price stability in the euro area as a whole. The ECB’s response to the crisis Let me now address the measures taken by the ECB in response to the crisis, before turning to the response by the euro area governments. During the crisis, the ECB has been confronted with unprecedented threats to monetary stability in the euro area. Broadly speaking, these have come from two sources: first, the deflationary forces stemming from the economic downturn and, second, the impairment of the transmission of its monetary policy, which reflected to the growing tensions in financial markets. The ECB had to react decisively to these challenges. First, we used our standard monetary policy measures to address the downward pressures on price stability that resulted from the sharp slowdown in economic activity in the crisis. In full consistency with our mandate, we reduced our key policy interest rate rapidly between October 2008 and May 2009, from 4.25% to 1%. In other words, we reduced our policy rate faster than any euro area country has ever done in recent history. Given that the ECB has ensured that inflation expectations in the euro area as a whole remain very solidly anchored, we have been able to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance over the past four years.

Another contributory factor is probably the fall in interest expenditure. The mood among households will be crucial for private consumption’s future path. As I see it, however, there are certain grounds for fearing that even consumption will be somewhat weaker than we counted on in December, when our forecast included comparatively strong consumption activity in the coming years. While households are optimistic about their own economic situation, the view of Sweden’s economy and employment’s future development is more dismal. Poorer international economic prospects and the more pessimistic expectations of firms are liable to dampen the optimism of households and thereby private consumption. The statistics on industrial capacity utilisation continue to present a varied picture. At total level, however, we consider that in the coming two years the Swedish economy will still have some surplus capacity and this is expected to be somewhat larger than we envisaged in December. The crucial question here is the future development of households’ expectations. Continued optimism could result in sustained domestic demand that tends to offset the more subdued international trend and the weaker investment activity. Construction and property market For this Forum it may also be appropriate to say something about the situation in the construction sector. Construction activity shows a cyclical pattern, with strongly rising costs in upward phases. An upswing here may therefore entail risks of inflation. In a historical perspective, the level of construction activity in Sweden in recent years has been very low.
The absence of extended periods of high unemployment in the face of significant adverse developments suggests that labour markets have been able to adjust. Indeed, unemployment in Malta has been less volatile than in the euro area. The exchange rate peg has also been a valuable nominal anchor, restraining price increases. In fact, inflation has averaged just 2.4% in the past five years (1.3% in 2003), indicating a considerable measure of nominal convergence with our major trading partners, and with the euro area in particular. Taken together, these features of the Maltese economy suggest that the likelihood of experiencing an asymmetric shock is small; and they lead us to believe that the exchange rate peg provides a suitable framework for joining ERM II and that the country should be able to adopt the euro sooner rather than later. We are also aware, however, that the peg will have to be maintained during the lira’s passage through what is essentially uncharted territory. Professor Eichengreen’s words of admonition to last November’s East-West Conference here in Vienna readily come to mind, “… prescribing bands for the new EU members for an extended period is the worst form of macroeconomic malpractice. Bands are fragile and difficult to manage. Their fragility is clear from Europe’s own experience in 1992.” In order to ensure a smooth transition towards, and through ERM II, therefore, it will be necessary to convince the markets that ERM II is indeed a natural culmination of the lira’s currency basket regime.

The adoption of info-communication technologies is changing the global financial landscape. New technologies have broadened the scope and utility of financial products. New delivery channels have emerged. Traditional business models are being challenged. The conventional value chain has been disaggregated. Some players are focussing on specific segments of the value chain, such as processing or distribution, seeking to exploit scale economies. Niche and specialised areas have emerged, that open opportunities for a diverse range of innovative players, often start-ups or smaller players nimble enough to exploit opportunities by adopting new technology. It is difficult to predict who will be the winners and losers in this new landscape. Not all the new ideas or business models will eventually succeed. But technology, automation and the internet will likely be central to the success stories. MAS is keeping a close watch on these developments. As new business models and entities emerged, we have issued policy notes setting out our views on the electronic provision of services in the areas of banking, capital markets, risk management and third-party aggregators. In March 2001 we released formal supervisory guidelines on the use of the internet in banking ( the Internet Banking Technology Risk Management Guidelines), after extensive consultation with the industry in Singapore and abroad, and have been contributing actively to the evolving thinking among regulators on these issues. We are introducing a new consolidated Securities and Futures Act to account for global developments influenced by technology.
The Bank of Albania became also an important institution for the development of the financial and economic systems in Albania. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The challenges of the past 20 years have transformed the central Bank into a modern, responsible and credible institution; a centre of professionalism; an institution that applies the most modern methods of monetary management; the heart of the financial system. Aware of the decisive role that modern theories on economic growth assign to institutions for the prosperity of a nation, and taking advantage of the support from the political class and the trust of the Albanian society during these 20 years, the Bank of Albania has undertaken to transform itself into a modern institution and a dignified public entity across the institutional, moral, professional, ethical and intellectual dimensions. The Bank of Albania considers this as a highly significant task and contribution to state formation and prosperity in the future. Its efforts for the infrastructural and conceptual modernisation of the institution, including the Bank’s construction projects during the last three years, are a requisite to guarantee contemporary standards for the management of the activities of the institution. In other words, this literally implies rapid approximation with homologous institutions in Europe. Upon the completion of these projects, the Bank of Albania will be more opened to the public that will benefit from financial education policies, scientific research, library services, and legislative, history, museum, and numismatic-related activities.

Ardian Fullani: Monetary policy, from the past to the present Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the 10th international conference on “Monetary policy, from the past to the present”, Tirana, 26 October 2012. *  *  *  H.E. Prime Minister, Your Excellencies Ambassadors, Honourable Minister of Finance, Honourable Governors, Distinguished Guests and Participants, I am very honoured and privileged to open the proceedings of the Tenth Conference of the Bank of Albania. This conference is particularly important this year as it is organised in the framework of activities for the 100th anniversary of the Declaration of Albania’s Independence and the 20th anniversary of the Bank of Albania. While retaining the scientific approach, the conference pays tribute to the endeavours made over the years in the monetary and finance aspects. In Bank of Albania’s view, the past is an essential element for the analysis and decisionmaking, and a requisite for theoretic or empirical research. At present, this is a necessity, a challenge that the economics world is facing. To scan, diagnose and cure the situation of the economy, a successful scholar would have to be able to read the human thought. Unfortunately, such a doctor does not exist. Therefore, in our days, the economic science is turning its attention to individual characteristics such as: history, ethnography and other national traits, considering them as substantial determinants for the stochastic process that leads the behaviour of economic agents.
9  STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND NEW CHALLENGES  NORGES BANK  We have always know that activity on the Norwegian shelf would eventually decline. After a half-century of oil production, about half of estimated total reserves have been extracted.3 About half of what remains has not yet been discovered. In recent years, known oil resources have shown little increase (Chart 10). There is also the question of how much of what remains would be profitable to extract. ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 13 FEBRUARY 2020  Chart 10 Fewer large discoveries. Reserve growth. In millions of scm of oil equivalents 1800  1800  1600  1600  1400  1400  1200  1200  1000  1000  800  800  600  600  400  400  200  200 0  0 1967  1974  1981  1988  1995  2002  2009  2016  Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate  The offshore oil industry features investments that generate income for a long time ahead. For many fields, the exploratory, development and production phases span several decades. The Johan Sverdrup field, where production recently started, will according to plan remain in production for at least 40 years. Exploration and field development decisions have always been based on estimated futures prices for oil and gas. Uncertainty linked to future profitability has also been a key factor. Today, global climate challenges add to that uncertainty. More and more people are waking up to the gravity of climate change.

115  11  110  10  105  9  100  8  95  7  90  6  85  5  80  4  75  3 2000  70 2003  2006  2009  2012  2015  2018  1) Figures for 2019 are based on the projections in Monetary Policy Report 4/19. Sources: Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements (TBU), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank  Despite a more than 15 percent reduction in labour costs in a common currency since 2014, the tradable sector has shown fairly weak growth, as reflected in recent trade balance developments. The non-oil trade deficit has continued to widen, which must be seen in the light of the decline in oil service exports owing to the sharp fall in global offshore oil investment. Seafood exports have recently set new records in krone terms, but exports have remained flat for several years in volume terms, partly because of salmon lice problems. Capacity constraints have also hampered exports of metals and other capital-intensive manufactured goods. Profitability has clearly improved, but a considerable increase in production requires substantial investment, and it is only in the past few years that manufacturing investment has shown a pronounced pick-up. The large foreign assets that we have accumulated mean that we can run a trade deficit when oil and gas revenues eventually decline.
MONETARY POLICY REPORT PRESENTATION BEFORE THE FINANCE COMMISSION OF THE  HONORABLE SENATE OF THE REPUBLIC*  Rosanna Costa Governor Central Bank of Chile 20 June 2023  * The June 2023 Monetary Policy Report can be found at htp://www.bcentral.cl. Introduction Mister President of the Senate’s Finance Commission, Senator Ricardo Lagos-Weber; senators members of this Commission, ladies, gentlemen, I am grateful for the Commission's invitation to the Bank to present our views on recent macroeconomic developments, as well as their outlook and implications for monetary policy. This view is presented in detail in our June 2023 Monetary Policy Report, which we published this morning. This background also forms the rationale behind the decision adopted by the Board at yesterday's Monetary Policy Meeting. Let me begin by emphasizing that the Chilean economy has been making progress in resolving the macroeconomic imbalances accumulated in recent years. In the past few months, activity has continued along its adjustment process, which is ratified by different indicators that show that slack has resumed a trajectory towards levels consistent with achieving the inflation target. The advancement of this process and the gradual normalization of several factors that put pressure on costs have allowed inflation to decline. Thus, after peaking at 14.1% in August of last year, in May this year the annual variation was 8.7%. Core inflation has also declined, although, in line with expectations and compared with headline inflation, its drop has been slower and smaller.

This is underpinned by its great potential as a competitive form of financial intermediation. In Malaysia, the Islamic banking system has evolved into a dynamic, competitive and internationally integrated industry. In this recent five years, the Islamic banking industry has continued to record double-digit growth rate of about 20 percent. It is also an important contributor to the strong levels of profitability recorded by the banking groups. In terms of assets, the Islamic banking sector now accounts for 12 percent of the total banking system. It is envisaged that by year 2010, the Islamic banking industry will constitute 20 percent of the overall banking industry market share. Financing extended by the Islamic financial institutions to SMEs has shown an encouraging upward trend, growing at an average annual rate of 34.2% for the period 2001-2006. As at end-2006, Islamic financing to SMEs reached RM10 billion, accounting for 9.6% of total SME loans outstanding of the banking system. This is a significant increase compared with the amount of Islamic financing extended to SMEs at end-2000, which was only RM1.7 billion or 2.4% of total SME loans outstanding of the banking system. Indeed, there is great potential for Islamic financial institutions to play a more significant role in providing greater choice to SMEs to meet their financing needs. Increasingly now, SMEs from the different sectors require more customised and differentiated financial products and services that accommodate their unique requirements. This reflects the more highly diversified nature of the Malaysian economy.