samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The US dollar has remained the main international currency, as a result of the predominance of US financial markets and also the inability of several emerging economies to pursue independent policies (for example by de-pegging their currencies from the US dollar). But there is little reason to believe that these factors will not change over time. The renminbi, in particular, should be in a position to relatively quickly emancipate itself from the dollar and become a major international currency if the Chinese authorities were to consistently pursue capital account liberalisation, greater exchange rate flexibility and all related policy measures in the years to come. The international role of some other emerging market currencies is also likely to increase over time. We are clearly moving towards a multipolar currency world. The question is whether the euro will be one of the poles – so to speak – of the new system. I will not dwell on the advantages for Europe of being one of the poles, but rather I invite you to reflect upon what would happen if it were not. To be sure, the euro, like any other currency, would be affected by economic and political developments in the countries issuing the leading reserve currencies, and would suffer severely from external shocks. Consider, as an illustration, the recent experience of the Swiss franc, a currency which is renowned for its stability.

This is confirmed by the fact that since midOctober 2010, when the idea of private sector involvement in programmes to assist countries experiencing difficulties was voiced at the highest political level, and in spite of subsequent clarification that in fact no change had occurred in prevailing practices, some euro area market segments have severely suffered. The benefits of a deep and liquid financial market where international investors feel safe to invest have been jeopardised, undermining the competitiveness of the euro. The alternative is for policy-makers to take responsibility and strengthen the economic governance framework of the euro area, in at least three ways. First, the governance framework underlying budgetary policy requires bold changes, with greater automaticity and stronger commitment on the part of policy-makers to ensure full compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.3  3  4  The ECB published a long article on its views in this regard in the March 2011 issue of the Monthly Bulletin. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Second, further progress should be achieved in the implementation of the single market, strengthening the “economic leg” of EMU. Finally, we need to further integrate regulatory and supervisory institutions for the financial sector at the European level, either by reinforcing efforts to harmonise practices across Member States, or by further strengthening European authorities. A great deal has been achieved over the past few months, but much remains to be done to put the Union in a position to meet the challenges which have emerged as a result of the crisis.
Financial institutions are providing a range of retirement solutions. Insurers are selling products that encourage regular savings, in order to receive a steady stream of income during one's retirement years. According to Life Insurance Association, the number of such policies taken up last year in Singapore increased by about 50%. There are also unit trusts that provide a regular monthly dividend. MAS has issued the Singapore Savings Bonds, or SSB in short, to provide a flexible risk-free investment option for investors to diversify their portfolio for retirement. Last year, we doubled the individual limit for holding SSBs to $ due to the increased appetite for safe investments. Across Asia, the focus is shifting from pure wealth creation to wealth preservation and wealth bequest. Succession planning and intergenerational wealth transfer have moved up the agenda. A growing number of affluent families are consolidating their wealth through trusts and family offices, to optimise investment and legacy planning. Singapore is an ideal place for families to set up such structures. There is political and economic stability, a clear regulatory regime, a comprehensive network of tax treaties to avoid double taxation, and a robust ecosystem of professional services. The number of family offices in Singapore has increased four times between 2016 and 2018. We continue to see strong interest from families to set up in Singapore 4/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  MAS is working with the industry to strengthen Singapore’s value proposition as a centre of excellence for managing family wealth.

1 Includes Southeast Asia, Greater China, India, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan 2 “Asia-Pacific Private Equity Report 2019”; Bain & Company 3 “Southeast Asia PE & VC: Investment Activity May 2018”, SVCA 4 “World Population Prospects 2019”; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs  7/7  BIS central bankers' speeches
It is therefore very welcome that labour market reforms have recently been implemented in several countries where rigidities were considered to be particularly onerous, such as Spain[20], Italy, Portugal and Greece, and here in Germany too, some years ago. France is still lagging behind and although a labour market reform is now being discussed, whether it is sufficiently ambitious to significantly lower the equilibrium unemployment rate remains to be seen. Although increased flexibility in labour markets will produce a better outcome in the medium term, some reforms may create losers in the short term[21]. It is only natural that such reforms are opposed by those fearing short-term personal losses, even when the reforms are eventually beneficial for society as a whole. We should take such concerns seriously. There are policies, however, that can help to mitigate or compensate for the negative short-term effects. First, labour market reforms should be sequenced carefully, in such a way that a negative short-term effect on employment is ideally felt only when the recovery is gaining momentum. This could in practice mean that employment protection is liberalised only when reforms to increase nominal wage flexibility have been carried out. This can have a quick effect on reducing unemployment even shortly after its implementation[22]. Second, active labour market policies can help to reallocate workers across sectors of the economy while an adjustment is taking place. Third, expansionary fiscal and monetary policy can also dampen the negative short-term impact of labour market reforms.

Overcoming entrenched scepticism and resisting vested interests will always be challenging, all the more so as the reforms are comprehensive. But such an approach would hit several birds with one stone. It would provide a positive impulse for employment and growth. And it would form the basis for future institutional change which would put our Economic and Monetary Union on a solid and permanent footing. I thank you for your attention. [1]  See last year’s discussion at the “ECB Forum on Central Banking” in https://2015.ecbforum.eu/en/content/programme/overview/programme-overview.html. [2]  See Cœuré, B. (2016), “Time for a new Lamfalussy moment”, Lamfalussy Commemorative Conference, Budapest, 1 February 2016. [3]  See Cœuré, B. (2013), “The three dimensions of the euro area crisis”, Asia-Europe Economic Forum conference on “European troubles, Asian worries”, Brussels, 21 January. [4]  See Blanchard, O., and F. Giavazzi (2003), “Macroeconomics effects of regulation and deregulation in goods and labor market”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 118, No. 3, pp. 879–907. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Sintra,  Portugal. 5  [5]  See European Commission (2013), “The growth impact of structural reforms”, Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, Vol. 12, No. 4. This report provides a good overview of productivity developments in Europe and in the US. [6]  See Cœuré, B. (2014a) “Structural reforms: learning the right lessons from the crisis”, speech at the Economic conference, Latvijas Banka, Riga, 17 October.
But it has occurred to the team working on these issues in the PRA that any version of that regime would probably involve, as a first step: the simplest regime, for the smallest firms. We are therefore attracted by the idea of putting such a first step in place early on, rather than waiting until we are ready to implement all the steps of a fully graduated regime. Before coming to design choices, however, it is important to establish one basic principle at the outset. We have absolutely no interest in moving to a weaker prudential regime for small firms. Small firm failures will inevitably occur as part of having a dynamic banking sector. On the one hand, we have been very successful in our efforts to encourage new entry: since 2013 we have approved 25 new UK banks (as well as 24 international ones), including one hardy soul who set sail this week on the choppy seas of the Covid 6  crisis. On the other hand, the PRA does not seek to operate zero failure regime, and we have quietly overseen the exit from the market of 12 small UK banks in recent years. But the key principle is that this process must be orderly, and that principle relies on strong prudential standards. Having had these two thoughts – to start with the simplest step on the ladder, and to keep it strong – the fevered minds of the PRA competition team turned to branding questions.

Blatant mismanagement of the risks and of the business model in some banks explains first and foremost the recent turmoil. It must be reiterated, SVB’s business model was fortunately an outlier, and the rise in interest rates generally benefits European banks, thanks to their diversified deposit base and large loan portfolio. As president of the French prudential authority, I can attest to French banks’ robustness: their net banking income increased by 5.3% in 2022, and their revenues remain on a high track in 2023. After the (temporary, alas) funeral, let me come to the three blessings. This word is a bit self-centred, I confess, since I am referring to public policies. But the blessings refer first to two reasons why the US banking crises did not affect the euro area this time: our regulation, and our supervision. As regards regulation, Basel III in its entirety applies to all European banks, but only to 13 banks in the  Page 2 of 6 United States. According to a number of estimates, including our own, SVB's short-term liquidity ratio (LCR), had it been applicable, would have been below the 100% requirement, which would have been an early warning signal – for memory’s sake, all liquid assets are booked at fair market value in this ratio. The priority is therefore not to keep reworking the Basel requirements - and thus delaying their implementation - but to implement them everywhere and quickly, as the Fed Vice Chair’s – Michael Barr – report suggested it in April.
A forecast rate of inflation above the target normally leads to interest rate increases, just as an expected rate below the target prompts the Riksbank to lower the repo rate. Inflation is assessed on a continuous basis. New information—fresh economic statistics, for instance, or signs of a change in some economic relationships—leads the Riksbank to review its current forecast and make the necessary changes. If a new forecast indicates that future inflation will deviate from the target, then the Riksbank has to adjust the repo rate in accordance with the new assessment. However, assessments of future inflation—like any other forecast—are bound to include an element of uncertainty. Moreover, observers are liable to differ on which future path is most probable. So it is hardly surprising—rather a healthy sign—that our inflation assessments and monetary policy are sometimes a subject of lively debate. But while inflation assessments may vary, in Swedish society today there is broad support for focusing monetary policy on price stability. BIS Review 66/1998  -22. Recent years The Swedish economy, as we all know, went through a profound crisis in the early 1990s. This is not an occasion for discussing the causes of the crisis in depth. It will suffice to note that the origins lay in structural weaknesses in Sweden’s economy. But the crisis also had to do with shortcomings in stabilisation policy in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Since production stopped falling and growth restarted in the course of 1993, economic developments in Sweden have exceeded expectations in several respects.

These economies show signs of a slowdown that can be traced to decreased exports to Asia but there are also indications that their domestic demand is slackening. In the euro area, however, growth prospects seem to be more favourable. The recovery appears to be firm—to a growing extent as a result of stronger domestic demand—and it looks as though inflation will remain low. The overall picture of international activity is somewhat weaker than the Riksbank forecast in June. International inflationary pressure is low. The extensive economic problems in Japan and the unrest in global stock exchanges are contributing to this. BIS Review 66/1998  -4-  Swedish economy strong Economic growth in Sweden seems to be good, however. As expected, the statistics show an accelerating growth of domestic demand, accompanied by a slowdown in foreign trade. Private consumption is rising strongly and a continuation of this trend is indicated by a number of factors: households’ personal economic expectations are still rising, employment is expanding and disposable income is growing as a result of low inflation and a less restrictive fiscal policy. Uncertainty about share prices could have a contrary effect but the downward movements that have been observed constitute no more than a correction after a relatively strong increase. Since the beginning of 1998 the Stockholm Exchange has risen 20 per cent. The statistics also show strong growth for public consumption as well as gross capital formation. But foreign trade is weakening; export growth is slowing and imports are rising.
One question I am often asked is how the MPC would respond in such a disorderly no deal scenario. Unfortunately this is not a question with an unambiguous answer. The lesson that we should take a broad view of resilience applies particularly in this case. A disorderly no deal scenario would certainly be a major negative supply shock – the largest since the 1970s. But the relative response of demand and supply will would depend on the precise nature of the shock that hit, as would the response of the exchange rate and other asset prices. How the MPC would respond would depend on the balance of demand, supply and the exchange rate and the implications of all those for inflation, as we set out in a range of alternative scenarios that we published in November to aid understanding.7 Each committee member will have their own assessment of the most likely combination of factors; but it is impossible to predict exactly what would happen in advance, and I would These are included in “EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability”, available online at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-and-financial-stability, which we published in November 2018 at the request of the House of Commons Treasury Committee. 7  12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  12  want to wait and see how the situation unfolded. There are scenarios where the balance of those factors would mean looser monetary policy was appropriate, and other scenarios where it would be appropriate to tighten.

If this continues it will drag still further on the economy’s already weak productivity trend, over and above the drag from reduced economic openness that I highlighted earlier. I’ve talked so far from a whole UK perspective. And that’s right because the MPC and FPC set policy for the whole country. But regional resilience is also an important aspect of resilience.5  And Scotland, like the UK, has been resilient in a number of ways. The Scottish economy has become increasingly diversified over time. I already mentioned Scotland’s relatively robust performance in the financial crisis. And while the falls in the oil price weighed on growth in 2015-16, more recently GDP growth has broadly kept pace with the UK as a whole – although Brexit uncertainty is having the same negative effects in Scotland as elsewhere. Scottish labour productivity, while slower than pre-crisis as in the rest of the UK, has been better sustained, perhaps because there has been less of an impact from the financial sector. And unemployment is at 3.2%, even lower than the already record-breaking UK rate of 3.8%. In the Highland region it was 3.0% in the most recent data. Andy Haldane’s speech “Is all economics local?”, available online at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk//media/boe/files/speech/2019/is-all-economics-local-speech-by-andy-haldane.pdf, gives a sense of the kind of new ways the Bank is using regional data to get a better understanding of the economy.
Together, these initiatives benefit both issuers and investors by streamlining and lowering the cost of access to capital and investment, 2/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  and help to recycle capital within the region. 12 Singapore’s capital markets have likewise developed well on the back of Asia’s growth and capital market liberalisation: a. Bonds. The size of the corporate bond market grew 2% year-onyear to reach SGD 315 billion in 2015 comprising SGD 140 billion in Singapore Dollar bonds and SGD 175 billion in non-Singapore Dollar bonds. This represents an annualised growth rate of 12% over the past five years. The market serves a diverse range of issuers, raising funds in various currencies and instruments, including: (i) One, Covered Bonds: DBS issued the first covered bond of USD 1 billion in July 2015. UOB is the first global issuer to publish its Harmonised Transparency Template (HTT)12 which was developed by the European Covered Bond Council, and aims to promote an enhanced level of transparency and comparability for covered bond investors. (ii) Two, Masala Bonds: Following India’s liberalisation, as I mentioned earlier, three Masala bonds were issued in Singapore and listed on SGX this year: Adani Transmission, NTPC Limited and Indiabulls Housing Finance. They also represent the world’s first green corporate Masala bond and first privately-owned enterprise Masala bonds. (iii) Lastly, Green Bonds: To meet the demands of an expanding pool of socially responsible investors, a Singapore property company is set to roll out the first green bond in Singapore. b. Foreign Exchange.

A well-functioning bond market serving a broad spectrum of international issuers and investors needs to be supported by a deep foreign exchange market, and Singapore is the largest foreign exchange market in Asia and the third largest globally. Based on the triennial survey by the Bank for International Settlements, average daily turnover reached USD 517 billion in April 2016, a 35% increase from three years ago. Our share of global market has increased from 6% to 8%. Singapore exchanges offer a suite of 21 Asian FX currency futures and option contracts. The Singapore Exchange’s Indian Rupee and Renminbi futures contracts are amongst the most liquid globally. The next decade 13 As we chart our next lap in developing Asia’s capital markets, we need to take into account trends and driving forces that will shape capital markets in the years ahead. Let me highlight three of them: 14  First, technology is transforming capital markets in significant ways. a. This is most obvious in foreign exchange, which is the most advanced in contract standardisation and market practices. New electronic trading platforms are blooming alongside mature systems, and are beginning to enter emerging markets. Technology is also enabling OTC platforms to clear on exchanges, and for exchange3/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  traded futures to be distributed on OTC platforms. b. Even in bond markets, technology is being used to improve premarket price transparency by pulling price feeds from traders directly.
Prior to the most recent informal meeting of the finance ministers and central bank governors in the EU, which took place in Oviedo in Spain, a working group had studied the conditions for speeding up financial integration. This group made a review of the important welfare functions of the financial system and referred to the profits that an efficient financial sector can generate. They also illustrated some of the obstacles that remain within  3  the EU and which I have just mentioned. On the basis of its analysis, the group drew conclusions on what measures from the public sector could contribute to realising the political ambitions within the EU. The finance ministers and central bank governors of the EU member states endorsed the group’s conclusions. They thus emphasise once again that the 42 measures in the financial services action plan must indeed be implemented in the member states no later than 2005, in a way that opens up markets but does not create new obstacles to integration. Public supervision of financial activities needs to become more uniform within the EU, to enable operators with financial activities in several countries to be covered by similar conditions and to facilitate co-operation between the national supervisory authorities. Competition within the financial sector should be intensified, and in particular different financial operators should be afforded equal access to clearing and settlement systems. Furthermore, existing elements of tax discrimination should be identified and removed.

This should not necessarily be seen as a failure with regard to the initial ambitions, but is also a result of new trends in the financial system making new demands of the regulatory systems, which it is to be welcomed that the political system embraces. And there has also emerged a partially new view on the purposes of government rules and regulations, which has been a process that has taken some time as it is based on a long tradition of fairly detailed provisions regarding which transactions were allowed or forbidden and who should do what. This has applied at least to financial services primarily aimed at the household sector, which has made it difficult to continuously adapt the financial sector to changing market conditions and has entailed considerable costs for the consumers. Now the emphasis is on ensuring that those who produce the services are clear in showing what they have to offer and what risks may be involved in different financial commitments, which gives the customers greater scope to decide for themselves how they want to make their arrangements. Continued pressure for political initiatives The EU has high ambitions to make the European economies more efficient. At the summit meeting in Lisbon two years ago the heads of state and government adopted a strategy aimed at making the EU the most competitive, knowledge-based economic area in the world by the year 2010! Financial integration plays an important role in realising this strategy.