samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The US Federal Reserve has been most prominent in this connection, conducting a far-reaching review of its operational framework. In this connection, I am of the opinion that the ECB should launch a similar exercise. Among other factors, it should reflect on a clarification of our quantitative price stability objective, in order to align it with the specific definitions of other developed countries’ central banks and provide for better communication and anchoring of agents’ expectations.10 The latest Annual Report of the Banco de España, to which I referred earlier, analyses the most favourable and least favourable aspects of several possible strategic options in this area. 9  See P. Lane (2019), “Policy and Below-Target Inflation”, address delivered at the Bank of Finland on 2 July 2019. See Chapter 3, “Monetary policy design in the medium and long term”, in the Annual Report 2018, Banco de España. 10  10/16  The contribution of non-monetary economic policies is pivotal That said, the participation of non-monetary economic policies is essential for shoring up the recovery, entrenching higher growth rates and, thereby, smoothing convergence by inflation towards its medium-term reference. The need to create a fiscal stabilisation instrument in the euro area Recent experience has highlighted the difficulty of achieving a more appropriate macroeconomic policy mix for the euro area as a whole under the current framework of rules and institutions in which European fiscal policy operates. In the euro area each country decides its fiscal policy.

It is also necessary to take into account the relevance of employment and productivity developments when determining the sustainability of the pension system and, therefore, of the general government balance sheet. This is why it is so important that pension system reform should take place at the same time as structural reforms are adopted to improve the economy’s employment and productivity performance. It is also necessary to be aware that these variables themselves depend on the characteristics of the pension system, which should be geared towards fostering labour participation and worker productivity. We need to remember, moreover, that demographic developments, the ultimate reason for reforming the pension system, will also have effects in many other areas of economic activity over the coming decades, such as long-term growth, the configuration of the labour market, inflation, demand policy transmission and tax revenues.13 That is one more reason why it is necessary for pension system reform to be accompanied by structural reforms in other areas. The pension system reform should be intended to be long-lasting, since it will affect the economic decisions of all the citizens of many generations in relation to consumption, investment, labour supply and savings. Accordingly, it would be highly desirable for the reform to enjoy a broad consensus and to produce stable and transparent rules. 3.5  Next Generation EU  As I indicated earlier, one recent highly significant development was the approval by the European Council in July of the European recovery programmes.
And, as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Preet Bharara has observed, if you spend your time thinking about how close to the line you can get, it is inevitable that you will at some point cross that line. No one gets the arbitrage right 100 percent of the time.2 When you make that mistake, you will not only have a bad culture, but you will also have to deal with Preet Bharara’s office. 2/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  Therefore, what’s needed is a better culture. Culture can help to fill in the spaces between and beyond rules. Culture also shapes our attitude toward rules. A strong, ethical culture is one in which individuals within an organization demonstrate to each other a commitment to certain first principles. These principles must align with both the private purpose of the organization and the public rules governing its operations. Of course, it is possible for principles to conflict. When that occurs, determining the right course will be difficult. But, the more you wrestle with that conflict, the better you will become at resolving ethical quandaries. Aristotle called this aspect of ethics “habit,” but I prefer to think of it as ethical muscle memory. The more practice you have in thinking about it, the better you will be at determining what is right. Bankers will be more likely to think about what is right, as opposed to what is merely legal, the more often they observe their colleagues doing the same.

Second, banking does not have its own ethics—nor should it have its own ethics. The qualities that you value in other aspects of your life should be the same qualities you apply at work and encourage in your colleagues. Third, candid assessment is critical to improving culture. I invite you to think in particular about the incentives and norms of behavior within your organizations. Do they support or impair the qualities and principles that guide you and that your firm espouses? Before expanding on those points, let me explain why I believe that reforming culture is important, 1/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  and justifies the time and effort of not only of today’s program, but of the ongoing work at your institutions and collectively across the industry. The manipulations of LIBOR and foreign exchange rates prompted the New York Fed’s work on culture. Of course, widespread misconduct did not originate with either episode. The timing, however, was significant. Despite the near-death experience of the financial crisis, new rules and regulations, and―in some cases―large fines and penalties, the LIBOR and FX events made clear that serious ethical and behavioral problems had persisted in the industry. I was particularly struck by how the manipulation of foreign exchange rates occurred even after the LIBOR fixing was widely known. The appropriate lessons from the LIBOR scandal did not seem to have been learned. That was both surprising and profoundly disappointing to me. The LIBOR and FX collusions were not occasional atonalities in an otherwise harmonious financial system.
Obviously the changes in the Bank’s remit announced in May 1997 by the incoming Labour Government, and largely enshrined in the 1998 Bank of England Act, were profound ones. The arrival of monetary independence meant that the work of the MPC – of which I am one of the nine members – has scarcely been out of the news. Less obtrusively, the departure of banking supervision to the new FSA meant the end of one substantial – though actually comparatively recently acquired – function; and the shift of debt management to the DMO brought to an end another, much older one. So does the “new” Bank have a new relationship with the financial services sector? Let me first say that, though the Bank has been through a period of profound change, its core purposes remain the same. One is obviously to promote monetary stability; and there our role is now much more substantial and overt. But the Bank has two more core purposes, and both relate directly to the financial services sector. 1  BIS Review 43/1999  The first is to promote the overall stability of the UK financial system. This role is not new, though it has recently been set out explicitly in the Memorandum of Understanding between the Bank, HMT and the FSA. Broadly, promoting systemic stability means working to ensure that the financial system continues to perform its key roles in support of the wider economy – settling transactions, providing liquidity and allocating savings.

Similarly, in other markets, London’s dominance in foreign exchange trading, OTC derivatives, fund management and bond origination means that London is the financial centre for euro wholesale financial services. Even in the area of payment systems the UK accounts for a significant proportion of the euro payments flowing through TARGET, even though for us the euro is a foreign currency. But these are just the immediate, first round effects of the euro. The more substantial challenges are posed by the more uncertain outlook as to just how the euro markets will develop in the medium term. So I want now just to say a little about how the euro markets may develop over the next ten to fifteen years. One thing to keep in mind here is that some of what may happen, though driven by events in the EU, will reflect factors beside the single currency. I think we may well see more privatisation, greater reliance on private provision of pensions, and other structural reforms. If we do, it will significantly affect European, and hence, euro financial markets. But such trends have their roots in the more general process of creating a single market, rather than EMU itself. Considerable progress towards a single EU market for financial services had been made long before the euro. A considerable number of directives are already in place, perhaps most significantly the Investment Services Directive, which was implemented in 1996 and gave regulated firms and exchanges from one Member State a ‘passport’ to do business in another Member State.
Friedman (1957) as well as Modigliani and Brumberg (1954)). In other words, their consumption level would remain more or less steady throughout. In reality, income at certain stages of life does not suffice to cover this hypothetical consumption level. This is true mostly in younger years and in old age. Taking out a loan enables a household to overcome financial bottlenecks in certain phases of life and to make use of their income at a time when they derive the greatest benefit from it. Page 4/16  diversification of investment risk. For society as a whole, it means that accrued savings are made widely available and thus put to better use. Let me give you an example. An entrepreneur is faced with the question of what use to make of his assets. There is no major purchase to be made at the moment. Neither is there a profitable project at his own company in the pipeline. Do you remember our university graduate with her brilliant idea for a product? The entrepreneur could lend her some of his assets against interest and so generate a return. 7 By extending a loan to the young graduate, he is also diversifying his investments. As the proverb has it, he is not putting all his eggs in one basket. Overall, we can conclude that an effective credit system represents an essential basis for a thriving economy. It allows borrowers to put their income to the best-possible use over time.

Interest rate tool  2 Within this framework, it shall have the following tasks:  … e. It shall contribute to the stability of the financial system. 22  1 November 2017  Collegium generale | Fritz Zurbrügg | © Swiss National Bank  Should the interest rate tool be used to curb excesses on the credit market? Tinbergen rule: 1 target = 1 instrument  Unwelcome strong side-effects  Excesses only in certain segments  1 The National Bank shall pursue a monetary policy serving the interests of  the country as a whole. It shall ensure Price stability. In so doing, it shall take due account of economic developments. Interest rate tool  2 Within this framework, it shall have the following tasks:  … d. It shall contribute to the Stability of the financial system. 23  1 November 2017  Collegium generale | Fritz Zurbrügg | © Swiss National Bank  Macroprudential instruments as a target-oriented alternative to the interest rate tool Tinbergen rule: 1 target = 1 instrument  Unwelcome strong side-effects  Excesses only in certain segments  Article 5: Tasks 1 The National Bank shall pursue a monetary policy serving the interests of the country as a whole. It shall ensure Price stability. In so doing, it shall take due account of economic developments. Interest rate tool Macroprudential instruments  2 Within this framework, it shall have the following tasks:  … d. It shall contribute to the Stability of the financial system.
The FATF is a 26 member intergovernmental, policymaking body that was established in 1989 to guide the implementation of anti money laundering measures in the aftermath of the 1988 UN Drugs Convention. Its membership includes the major financial centres of Europe, North America and Asia. The FATF has come up with 40 recommendations which member countries are expected to adopt. These are designed for universal application and cover the criminal justice system and law enforcement, the financial system; it’s regulation and international cooperation. •  Second, the Basel Committee of Banking Supervision. The main thrust of regulatory response to money laundering has been to stop dirty money from entering the banking system and to make sure that it is traceable when it occurs. The Basel Committee, a grouping of the worlds leading bank supervisors has so far come up with three guidelines for  banks in combating money laundering, namely: ‘The Prevention of Criminal Use of the Banking System for the purpose of Money Laundering’ (1988), the ‘Core Principles of Effective Banking Supervision’ (1997), and the ‘Customer due diligence for banks’ (2001). •  Third, the Wolfsberg Principles. The Wolfberg Principles came into force in 2000 and are an industry response to the threat of money laundering. They are an agreement among eleven major international private banks (which account for at least a third of the world private banking funds) to guide the conduct of international private banking.

Essentially, the Principles seek to control money laundering by cutting across the multiplicity of jurisdictional issues and addressing the serious reputation damage they were suffering in the media because of money laundering. Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me now to discuss our local initiatives/responses to money laundering. Admittedly, there has been little activity in the areas of prevention of money laundering in Zambia, until quite recently. This exposed the country to the activities of money launderers because they always seek to operate in countries where there are lax controls. However, the major initiatives in the fight against money laundering, locally, have included: •  Enactment of the Prohibition and Prevention of Money Laundering Act. The Government of Zambia responded to the increase in drug trafficking and money laundering by passing the Prohibition and Prevention of Money Laundering Act in 2001. The Act provides for the disclosure of information by supervisory authorities and of regulated institutions if suspected of money laundering activities. The Act also provides for the forfeiture of property belonging to persons connected to money laundering offences as well as for the prosecution of persons connected to or charged with money laundering offences. The Money Laundering Act places certain obligations on the Bank of Zambia as the supervisory authority. One of these is the issuance of regulations to commercial banks as and when necessary in order to prevent money laundering. •  Regulatory responses.
There was thus no scope for stabilising monetary and fiscal policies. Since then the pendulum has swung back a little with the neo-Keynesianism, which has reintroduced some of the elements of the classical Keynesian analysis. Due to different reasons it can take time before the economy returns to its long run equilibrium after a shock. Monopolistic competition and sticky wages are a few examples. The participants’ expectations can play a major role according to these theories. Monetary and fiscal policy can therefore be used to stabilise the economy. Macroeconomic analysis is often carried out with the aid of general equilibrium models (DSGE models, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium). 5 The Riksbank, like a number of other central banks, uses one of these models for forecasts and simulations. The Riksbank’s model is called Ramses (Riksbank’s aggregate macromodel for studies of the economy in Sweden). In Ramses, goods and labour markets are assumed to be in monopolistic competition and wages and prices are sticky. However, the Ramses model analysis is only part of the forecasting process, which is also based on other statistical analyses and of course assessments. In the short term, that is to say the current quarter and one quarter ahead – what is usually called “now-casting” – we use different statistical models and indicators to make an assessment of the current situation. This analysis strives for the best possible accuracy in the forecasts and is often only vaguely anchored in economic theory.

Also, it should be sought to enhance work-life balance, to promote the birth rate and to tailor migratory flows to the demand for specific professionals and job profiles. Finally, as I said regarding the minimum wage, the measures aimed at protecting the lowest incomes should be designed in such a way as not to diminish employability. Meanwhile, the factor productivity growth rate of the Spanish economy continues to be low (see Chart 15). The modest growth of productivity has been associated with a lower rate of growth of firms’ average productivity in Spain than in other European countries, and with an allocation of resources to less productive firms during the past expansion. Addressing these problems requires an improved business competition framework. Regarding this last matter, over the last decade much of the loss in competitiveness – measured in terms of relative unit labour cost indicators – accumulated during the expansionary phase relative to the euro area as a whole (see Chart 16) has been recovered. This improvement is mainly explained by the improved labour productivity associated with severe job destruction during the crisis and by wage moderation, while the correction associated with profit margins has been less important. This fact, which at first may have been associated with the need for firms to improve their financial position, may now be evidencing a certain lack of business competition in some sectors, the persistence of which may hinder the proper allocation of resources, incentives and innovative capacity and, in general, the well-being of consumers.
32 Đ Đ I wish you a fruitful general assembly and annual meeting in Singapore. Thank you. [1] The IMF’s 2019 global growth forecast was lowered to 3.2%, as cited in the World Economic Outlook, July 2019. [2] IMF World Economic Outlook, July 2019 [3] The world’s best performing developing economies are defined as those that have averaged at least 3.5% annual per capita GDP growth over 50 years or 5% annual growth  over 20 years, as cited in the McKinsey Global Institute Study on Outperformers Maintaining ASEAN Countries’ Exceptional Growth Report in 2018. [4] Population projections from the UN. The relative market size of ASEAN is cited by the US-ASEAN Business Council in its growth projections for ASEAN in 2050. [5] DBS Bank and the UN Environment, Green Finance Opportunities in ASEAN 2017 [6] ASEAN Green / Social / Sustainability Bonds / Sukuk for October 2019 [7] GCIO Sustainability Reporting in ASEAN Research Report 2018 [8] Nasdaq and Celent July 2018, Global C-Suite Study on Capital Markets Infrastructure Technology [9] Global private equity valuations has grown more than 700% since 2002 in 2017, outpacing public equity market valuations, McKinsey Global Private Markets Review 2019, Private markets come of age. [10] CFA Institute Nov 2018, Capital Formation: The Evolving Role of Public and Private Markets [11] Wall Street Journal Jan 2018, Fewer Listed Companies: Is That Good or Bad for Stock Markets?

8 Đ Đ These factors underpin the promising economic prospects in ASEAN, with the corresponding need for regional enterprises to raise capital to support their growth. 9 Đ Đ Looking ahead, these are opportunities to be harnessed both within ASEAN and globally, and exchanges as well as clearing houses need to innovate and remain relevant to all stakeholders.Đ I will now speak about three key trends, the opportunities they present, and what MAS is doing to support the Singapore financial services industry in these areas. Trend 1: Catalysing Sustainable Finance for Growth 10 Đ Đ The first trend is growth in sustainable finance. This is increasingly an area of both concern as well as interest to financial players, especially millennial investors. 11 Đ Đ The estimated financing needs to support the greening of Asian economies are high. China has estimated that it will require $ billion of investments annually to achieve its green policy goals under its 13th Five Year Plan while ASEAN will need an estimated $ billion in green investments annually through 2030 [5] . 12 Đ Đ Sustainable finance is still at a nascent stage but we are seeing increasing focus from financial institutions to develop new environmental, social and governance (“ESG”)-related products. Similarly, with increased investor demand and awareness for sustainable financial products, exchanges like yourselves can look to expand and support product owerings that will meet the needs of socially and environmentally conscious enterprises and investors.Đ 13 Đ Đ One such area of growth is in green bonds.
Let us assume that the oil price temporarily increased by NOK 10 per barrel, or a little less than USD 1.50 per barrel. This is a small change in oil prices, well within normal variations from one year to the next. Central government revenues - and thus the budget surplus - would then increase by about NOK 8 billion the first year and NOK 10-11 billion the following year, which is equivalent to nearly 1% of Norway’s annual GDP. If the higher revenues are used in the economy through higher expenditure or reduced taxes in the central government budget, aggregate domestic demand will be affected. Higher expenditure requires an increase in the public sector’s use of real resources, primarily labour. One per cent of GDP is then a substantial figure. If the increase in oil revenues is used domestically in this way, it would correspond to nearly half of the annual growth in the mainland economy in a normal year. If the private sector of the economy is also expanding, and the economy is already close to capacity limits, this policy will swiftly lead to strong pressures on resources in the economy. This will result in a rise in wages and prices. This policy would also lead to unstable conditions in the foreign exchange market.

Growth in number of hours worked 1981–2001 Per cent  3  3  Trend  2  2  Actual  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2  -3  -3  -4  -4  -5  -5 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Fig. 7. Population growth in age group 20–64, 1969–2050, forecast from 2002 1,2  Per cent  1,2  1,0  1,0  0,8  0,8  0,6  0,6  0,4  0,4  0,2  0,2  0,0  0,0  -0,2  -0,2  -0,4 -0,4 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Statistics Sweden  BIS Review 16/2003  9  Fig. 8. Number of employed and average working hours, adjusted for sick leave Per cent 2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1 -2  -2 Employed  -3  -3  Average working hours  -4  -4  -5  -5  -6  -6 88  89  90  91  92  93  94  95  96  97  98  99  00  01  02  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Fig. 9.