samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Many countries, including Russia, have seen improvement in the index of attractiveness of carry trade (carry-to-risk). This index reflects the rate differential between sovereign obligations, with regard to risk measured against the volatility of the exchange rate. The recent growth of this index for Russia is associated not so much with change in the rate differential, but with the lower volatility of the ruble, which has already matched the level of a large number of emerging markets with successfully implemented inflation targeting policies, and that of some developed countries. In response to these changes, questions have arisen regarding the volume and potential sustainability of capital inflows to Russia. It should be noted that statistics do not confirm the hypothesis that carry traders have brought about a mass influx of funds on the Russian market. According to the latest balance of payments assessment published by the Bank of Russia, the main foreign exchange earnings in the first quarter of this year were related to the current account, and amounted to $ billion. Net private capital outflow in the first quarter of 2017 – amounting to $ billion – was actually a reflection of this influx, as the Russian banks, having received export revenue in their accounts, incorporated this revenue as foreign assets, primarily in the form of deposits in correspondent banks.

stress testing which is applied not only to the banking sector, but also to other related sectors, as they may also be carriers of systemic risk, be exposed to systemic risk from banks or, conversely, pass this risk on to banks. Such sectors include insurance companies, pension funds and professional market participants. And, importantly, in this type of stress testing intermediaries’ involvement in financial groups and holding companies is taken into account. Work on macroprudential stress testing has already begun at the Bank of Russia, and we have already taken the first steps in this direction. In 2017, the Bank of Russia began to publish its “Review of Financial Market Risks”, instead of the previously published “Money Market Review”, and the results of comprehensive stress testing of the financial market can be found in this new edition. Reflected in this work is the interaction of different categories of financial intermediaries in different financial market segments by means of network analysis tools. Further steps to be taken involve linking financial sector risks to shocks to the real economy, in which the effects of stress may be further exacerbated due to the feedback effect. At the end of this year, we will present the results of macroprudential stress testing in our “Financial Stability Review”. In the future, we will be able to use this to further develop the measure and calibration of macroprudential tools.
By 2010, middle-income consumers in China are expected to increase to 400 - 500 million thus making the China market comparable to that of the US. Five, rising intra-regional trade Rising economic integration has enabled the region to be more resilient in an increasingly volatile and uncertain external environment. The East Asian region has already developed a significant degree of economic integration as manifested in its fairly high level of intra-regional trade. The rise in intra-regional exports, which accounts for 34% of the East Asian region’s exports in 2002, stemmed in part from the higher contribution of domestic demand, which leveraged on the robust economic growth achieved by regional countries. Estimates indicate that about 30-70% of intra-regional trade is for final demand in the region. Of significance is the positive economic performance of China and India, which has generated increased sources of final consumer demand. Since 1993, China’s role in the region has reversed from a net exporter to a net importer in regional trade. Intra regional trade within ASEAN has also increased significantly to account for 24% of the region’s trade, exceeding the trade by the region with the United States. Six, supportive policies for endogenous sources of growth The region’s commitment to harness domestic driven growth has been reinforced with pro-active economic policies to provide an enabling environment to enhance the development of domestic businesses, in particular, small and medium scale enterprises.

Conclusions  By way of conclusion, I would say that, during periods of great transformations, while theory should still guide reasoning, close contact with the shifting economic reality is essential for efficient policy action. Therefore, in such circumstances, the normal rule-based monetary policy should probably give way to a larger degree of flexibility. Regardless of the objectives and rules set for monetary policy conduct, they should not be pursued or applied mechanically. A central banker cannot afford to live in an ivory tower; quite on the contrary, he needs to keep at all times abreast of the latest developments and trends economy-wide and in the financial system. Such an approach should not be assimilated to promoting a discretionary stance, but rather to a solid anchoring in the day-to-day realities, which often prove more complex than imagined by policymakers or theoreticians. When faced with completely unexpected developments requiring swift action, one cannot rely solely on recommendations derived from more or less mainstream economic theory. In spite of the significant progress achieved over the past decades, both monetary theory and economic science, in general, have their limits and imperfections.
On the asset side it is a question of changes in the gold and foreign currency reserve linked to the sale or purchase of foreign currencies. Such interventions are very rare and usually affected by our own decisions. Other items in the Riksbank’s balance sheet only show small and predictable changes. The total of the estimated changes in the balance sheet corresponds to how much  4  BIS Review 51/2008  the bank system’s borrowing requirement is expected to change over the coming week. Compared with many other countries, it is easy to make forecasts of the Swedish bank system’s borrowing or investment requirement. This is partly because the government transactions no longer go via the Riksbank, and there is very seldom a need to make currency interventions when one has a floating exchange rate. In a second stage, the actual loan transaction is carried out by means of what is known as a repo. The monetary policy repo means that the bank system borrows money from the Riksbank against collateral, with an agreement to “repurchase” a week later. When the repo matures, the banks pay interest on the past week’s loans, that is the repo rate. At the same time a new repo is carried out. The conditions for the repo are normally announced every Tuesday and the repo runs from Wednesday to Wednesday.

Under Solvency II valuation rules, this business is usually profitable and provides a boost to a firm’s balance sheet; no credit for future premiums therefore reduces the recognition of expected future profits and leads to a lower solvency ratio. In response to this, some firms have sought to amend existing insurance contracts in order to extend the contract boundary and recognise more future profit. The most common example is the addition of free marginal insurance benefits that are of questionable value to policyholders and which are (arguably) not economically discernible. Some amendments might meet the letter of the regulation, but they are designed to circumvent the spirit. The PRA will continue to scrutinise proposals by firms which seek to strengthen their balance sheets but which pay little attention to the additional risks they carry. Keeping across these issues, and leaning against any risks they create to our objectives, will require us to make good use of the full range of the Bank of England’s intelligence and analytical techniques. The new strategic plan that we have just adopted for the Bank (‘Vision 2020’) is exactly in this spirit and I’m delighted that my beady-eyed colleague Vicky Saporta will lead some horizon-scanning work in this area. Conclusion  Today I have provided a potted history of how banks, building societies and insurers have been supervised in the UK over the past 100 years.
We have always been in favour of a very close relationship between the central bank and the banking surveillance authorities. We said that long before any new problems, any new difficulties. We had a Governing Council position close to the start of the ECB, which we made public. We also strongly believe that better coordination for big cross-border institutions is absolutely necessary. Some avenues have already been suggested by Ecofin, the Council of Finance Ministers in the EU. The European Parliament has also carried out several works. The European Commission set up the De Larosiére group, a high level working group, to make recommendations. One of the European Parliament’s suggestions is that the ECB could play a particular role in this domain for the coordination of surveillance for cross-border institutions. In the US the Federal Reserve has a surveillance responsibility which concentrates very much on the big cross-border institutions. I see similar suggestions coming from the private sector and from the industry. As President of the ECB’s Governing Council I have no position of the Governing Council, but I am impressed by the mark of confidence in the ECB, demonstrated by the previous suggestions. In any case, the fragility, not only of global finance but of the international economy itself, is something that we should not accept as a normal feature of the globalized market economy. A new concept of strong resilience at a global level is of the essence.

China Finance: The recent revised GDP data indicates that China has become the third largest economy in the world. What opportunities and challenges do you see posed by the increased role of China in the world?" Trichet: The progress of the Chinese economy is absolutely striking. I have myself the memory of the city of Peking at the beginning of the 80’s. And I can measure how difficult it is for today’s visitors to imagine what Peking or any other Chinese big city looked like only 25 years ago. This remarkable success of the Chinese society and the Chinese economy is profoundly changing China as well as it contributes to a profound change of the world. China is called to take all the global responsibilities which are the counterpart of its economic and financial global influence. BIS Review 18/2009  3
The area also has a number of commercial farmers including conglomerates such as Zambeef who are engaged in producing crops like wheat, soya beans, barley and maize in large scale and employ a large number of permanent and seasonal workers. The potential for increased investments in agriculture and agro-processing industries is also enormous. The Government’s focus developing the country through infrastructure development will therefore lead to the realization of this potential in the near future. Mr Chairperson, the Bank of Zambia is pleased to see NATSAVE taking up the challenge and setting up this branch where other banks have failed. I am certain that this branch we are unveiling today will very soon become one of the most profitable branches in the entire NATSAVE network. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Furthermore, it is heartening to note that NATSAVE is not stopping here but is earmarked to open another branch in Lufwanyama district on July 26, 2013 to increase its total branch network to 32. I wish to assure the Board and the Managing Director of the Bank of Zambia’s utmost support as you expand your outreach to the areas which need financial services the most. I also wish to encourage other players in the banking sector to emulate NATSAVE and set up branches in other unbanked districts throughout the Country. Distinguished Guests, an important element for effective financial service provision is to complement branch expansion with increased product innovation.

So regulators worldwide set about replacing the “straws and sticks”, to rebuild the system with “bricks”, so that it is better able to withstand the next financial stress. In keeping with the popular adage, there was a global consensus on “not letting a serious crisis go to waste”. 4. Indeed, much have been done by financial authorities around the world. The foundations of the global financial system have been strengthened, such as in the capital and liquidity standards that underpin the viability of our financial institutions. Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (or G-SIFIs) and Financial Market Infrastructures (FMIs), as key pillars of the global financial system, have to meet higher regulatory standards as well as adopt new requirements on fail-safes through recovery and resolution plans. Coming back to my analogy, global regulators have gone beyond strengthening the “house” but also delved into the previously overlooked “garden” of OTC derivatives – and how this can be better landscaped around central infrastructure. In addition, market monitoring and surveillance tools have been augmented to spotlight on market-based finance (or shadow banking), allowing better visibility on hitherto darker corridors of the global finance house. 5. There are many more examples of regulatory reforms and initiatives. Now, after years of effort, the obvious questions will be whether we have done enough, will all the features and installations in the enhanced house of global finance come together in an effective and coherent manner, or have we overdone the repairs at a high cost to the occupants?
The Riksbank conducted a study in 2007 with the aim of investigating how large a proportion of the cash in circulation could be explained on the basis of what we know about cash usage.2 The study was based on available statistics on retail sales, secondary markets, liquidity buffers, lost or destroyed banknotes and coins and a number of other factors. Despite this we were unable to explain more than around 40 per cent of the value of the banknotes and coins in circulation. Although the study did not reach beyond 2004, I dare to claim that we still cannot explain what a large proportion of the cash is used for. Part of the explanation may be that the public has more  1  This comparison is based on cash usage measured as the value of the banknotes and coins in circulation (MO) in relation to GDP and on the number of card payments per person and year. 2  Guibourg, Gabriela and Björn Segendorff (2007). The Use of Cash and the Size of the Shadow Economy in Sweden. Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series, No. 204. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  cash at home, as a buffer, than we believe. Unfortunately, it is difficult to get good statistics on things like this as people may feel it is risky and sensitive to say how much cash they have at home. Another explanation is that cash is used in the shadow economy, for example for various household services such as repairs and cleaning.

The value of the banknotes and coins in circulation has fallen from 9.6% of GDP in 1950 to 2.9% in 2010. So, the question is: Should cash be compared with the extinct Neanderthals or the surviving Crocodiles? But why is this of interest to the Riksbank? Well, a first obvious answer is because it is the Riksbank that issues banknotes and coins. Another, and more complicated, answer is because one of the tasks of the Riksbank is to promote a safe and efficient payment system. This may sound a little high-flown, but it means, among other things, that we should promote the development of safe and efficient payments. This is why we have a natural interest in cards and cash. Hence, we are interested in the evolution of the market for payments, and that is why I am standing before you today. What I intend to talk about today is why I believe that cash will continue to play an important role in our payment system for the foreseeable future (even though not 85 million years) and why cards and other technological developments will not be able to fully take the place of cash. Ironically, part of the explanation for this lies in the strong position that debit and credit cards hold on the Swedish market. As usual I would like to make clear that my speech is an expression of my own views and that it may not necessarily be shared by my colleagues in the Board of the Riksbank.
The imperative here is to improve on policy and regulation design that can help deal with market excesses. Building on the spirit of entrepreneurship, the real sector must work continuously to improve its competitiveness by strengthening productivity. A sustained rise in wages and living standards cannot take place without productivity growth. And adaptability to the shifting winds of global competition cannot happen without the ability to adopt the best technology and the ability to use that technology efficiently. To this end, the best competition policy for Thailand is policy to encourage competition. Encouraging competition means open markets. Open markets give firms the means and the incentive to invest, innovate and learn to be the best. As regards the financial sector, Thailand not only requires stronger financial intermediaries but also market players of different views and risk appetites to ensure that the markets and financial system will undergo constant self-correction. Access to deeper and more liquid capital markets is another crucial element of financial development going forward. At this juncture, our own financial markets may not be deep enough soon enough, but some domestic players who are ready for it should not be encumbered from having access to the world financial markets. Indeed, those who can manage the risks have benefited from liberalized inflows in the past, but the Thai economy may benefit more if its citizens can unload domestic systematic risk abroad. To this end, the Bank of Thailand has progressively pursued capital account liberalization on the outflow side.

Joseph Yam: Changes in Asia – a brief look at the dynamics within the region Statement by Mr Joseph Yam, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and Alternate Governor for Hong Kong, China in the Asian Development Bank, at the 40th Asian Development Bank Annual Meeting, Kyoto, 6 May 2007. *  *  *  I would like to thank the Government of Japan and the people of Kyoto for their hospitality in hosting this year’s Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). I would also like to congratulate Mr Kuroda on his re-election as the President of the ADB. This year marks the 40th anniversary of the ADB. Over the past four decades, Asia has achieved remarkable development, particularly in terms of economic growth and the reduction of poverty, and clearly the ADB has contributed significantly to this achievement and has established itself as a regional financial institution of strategic importance. Asia has undergone remarkable changes too over the past four decades and in many ways, in particular in terms of the economic dynamics within the region, and between the region and the rest of the world. Changes have been particularly marked in the past decade or so, under the influence of globalisation and the revolution of information technology. There has, for example, been rapidly increasing trade integration, encouraged obviously by the high degree of freedom in international trade, and consequently increasing economic interdependence within the region. Changes always present new challenges and opportunities.
The whole region is going through a political, economic and social consolidation process. The policy-makers, the decision-makers, the examiners and almost everybody declare that their priority is the adherence to the European Union. The question to ask is if:   we have either to converge towards the European economic zone with small and fragmented economic structures competing with each other for European markets and opportunities,    or embrace a model:   gaining from the economies of scale,    encouraging and exploiting the advantages of the current competitive positions;    that grows the economic prosperity of the whole region and of each individual economy? Personally I think that the second alternative is the contemporary approach that our region should embrace with no hesitation. The success of this process shall depend on all our attempts and devotion to see which our competitive advantages are and to build up the right  2  BIS Review 117/2010  economic, financial, legal and physical infrastructure to use and increase these advantages to become competitive in the global economy. Therefore, its is significantly important that the study of the growth model takes place not only from a regional point of view, but to be an approach directed deeply towards the future.

Therefore, it is necessary the society itself and international institutions support the establishment and strengthening of internal anchors. Which would be an efficient internal anchor? I think that the best internal anchor is a technician who thinks independently, proud of what he does, conscious for the results and the consequences of the proper actions. In other words, this implies the establishment of professional capacities as one of the cornerstones of long-term successful polices. The scientific education and research in this direction have an important and inalienable role. All the issues mentioned so far, as:   The new strategic model of economic growth;    The effective, efficient and consistent monetary policies with the economic growth;    The necessity for coordinated structural reforms in the region;    The challenges to European integration;    The common political economy of the region in the future;    The importance of internal anchors and the study and research of external ones, and;    The need for establishing capacities;  are included in the research work’s agenda of the Bank of Albania. It is a great pleasure that we already have the possibility to cooperate with a remarkable partner as Oxford University, a distinguished institution for the high-level research in political and economic sciences. For this collaboration, I hope and I believe that many issues I discussed above would have an answer, partial or a complete one.