samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
While expectations displayed a modest increase in January on the back of higher-than-expected inflation due to the surge in food prices in the last quarter of 2009 and on the back of tax adjustments that started to be implemented in early January, it is observed that the change in expectations remained more limited as maturities extended (Figure 11). 4  BIS Review 31/2010  In the last quarter of 2009, inflation displayed an upward trend on a global basis as well. Inflation rates that had plummeted all over the world due to downward pressures arising from demand and cost conditions since the second half of 2008, started to trend up in August 2009, particularly due to the low base of 2008 in commodity prices (Figure 12 and 13). 2. Monetary policy response  After commenting briefly on inflation developments, I would now like to cover the policies pursued by the Central Bank during the last quarter. BIS Review 31/2010  5  Anticipating that inflation would decrease sharply as of the last quarter of 2008, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) focused on alleviating the potentially harsh impact of the global financial crisis on the domestic economy. In this respect, the CBT has delivered sizeable cuts in policy rates, while providing liquidity support to facilitate the smooth operation of credit markets. The cumulative interest rate cuts between November 2008 and November 2009 reached 1,025 basis points, bringing Turkey’s policy rate closer to the average of emerging markets implementing inflation targeting regimes (Figure 14 and 15).

In this respect, should the recovery in domestic economic activity turn out to be faster than expected, the limited monetary policy tightening implied in the baseline scenario could be implemented earlier than envisaged. The fact that inflation will rise in the forthcoming period due to base effects and public price adjustments, poses an important risk factor through its potential impact on inflation expectations. Several adverse factors such as food and oil price increases, base effects and administered price hikes have brought about upward movements in inflation since the last quarter of 2009. Although these factors are temporary, they are likely to cause headline  16  BIS Review 31/2010  inflation to stay at elevated levels for some time. It is crucial that economic agents fully understand the temporary nature of these developments while forming their medium- and longer-term expectations. Under the assumption that resource utilization would remain low, labor market conditions would have an adverse impact on consumption expenditure, and fiscal policy would generate a gradual depressing effect on the economy, these temporary factors as well as other one-time cost push pressures would not lead to a significant deterioration in general pricing behavior. Currently, the annual rate of increase of services prices and core inflation are consistent with medium-term inflation targets, and no serious risk of pass-through is observed. Therefore, it is foreseen that policy rates would be maintained at low levels for a long period.
Mugur Isărescu: The regional finance and investment for South East Europe Keynote address by Mr Mugur Isărescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the Euromoney Regional Finance and Investment Conference for South East Europe, Bucharest, 12 June 2014. *  *  *  Prime Minister, Ladies and gentlemen, It is an honour for me to be invited to speak in front of such a distinguished audience. I am very glad that, after three years “off”, Euromoney Conferences is re-launching the event in Romania. Time has come for Bucharest to host this important event, held for several years in Dubrovnik. The joy of giving the keynote address at this conference is bigger as I had the opportunity to read the first issues of Euromoney magazine while being a young research fellow at the World Economy Institute in the early ‘70s. For years it was one of my favourite magazines. Back in 1978, I also had the opportunity to visit the editorial offices in London. I could not help but notice that you have chosen a generous theme: “The Regional Finance and Investment for South East Europe” and you have set yourselves to approach themes that I am particularly interested in, like: pro-growth strategies in an age of austerity; what more can policy-makers do? ; how will governments incentivise overseas investors? ; how can the region increase EU fund absorption rates?

The other side of the story has shown us that during the last couple of years, the euro area underwent extensive governance reforms, designed to address the flaws revealed by the crisis. However, their actual effectiveness is still to be tested in practice. We are still in unchartered waters. There have been recent statements referring to the fact that Europe might have not exited the crisis yet. As Jean Monnet used to say: “Europe would be built through crises” and would be “the sum of their solutions”. Consequently, non-member States from Eastern and South-eastern Europe seem closer than ever to complying with the Maastricht criteria, but readiness for successful Euro Area membership needs further work. Labour, product market and other structural reforms are still required in order to observe convergence not only in letter, but also in spirit. Non-member States, on the road towards euro adoption, have to both comply with the Maastricht criteria and to choose the right moment for it. Each and every Member State should put their houses in order as a prerequisite for a successful Euro Area enlargement. Only this way new candidates will be able to obtain the opportunities of a single currency, while being in turn a valuable contributor to the monetary union. Romania has recently reached political consensus, at the highest level, namely the President and the Prime Minister, that the target date for euro adoption will be January 1st, 2019.
It therefore seemed natural to begin basing monetary policy on forecasts of CPIX inflation, which disregards interest expenditure. If the CPIX was close to the target two years ahead, this was an indication that the interest rate did not need to be changed, even if the CPI deviated from 2 per cent. To put it simply, one could say that this was a means of creating flexibility in our policy without abandoning the policy rule. We still had CPI inflation as a target variable, but began to use another measure of inflation as a tool to attain the target. 2  BIS Review 73/2008  Increased credibility and flexibility As confidence in our inflation-targeting policy has increased, it has become possible to allow this flexibility to take other and perhaps more natural expressions than to emphasise another measure of inflation than the CPI to base our interest rate decisions on. Today we make forecasts three years ahead, based on an assessment of what is considered to be a suitable path for the repo rate. Given this way of working, the base for our decisions is not that a particular measure of inflation should always be at a certain level at an exact time horizon. The important thing is that CPI inflation develops in a way we consider to be reasonable during the forecast period. We can so to speak aim to stabilise the CPI directly. This normally means that the CPI should reach the target level within two years.

6  BIS Review 73/2008  Historically the difference has been small… Average of annual percentage change 4  CPI CPIX  3  2  1  0 1985-  1990-  1995-  2000-  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Capital stock index in the CPI and the real estate price index Annual percentage change 20  20  15  15  10  10  5  5  0  0  -5  -5 Capital stock index  -10  -10  Real estate index -15  -15  Real estate index, 40 qtrs moving average  -20  -20 90  92  94  96  98  00  02  04  06  08  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  BIS Review 73/2008  7  CPI and CPI with fixed interest rate Annual percentage change 4  4 CPI CPI with fixed interest rate  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1 02  03  04  05  06  07  08  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  CPI, CPIX and CPI with fixed interest rate Annual percentage change 4  4  3  3  2  2 CPI with fixed interest rate CPI CPIX CPIX  1  1  0  0 06  07  08  09  10  11  Note: Dotted line represents forecast in MPU April 2008 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  8  BIS Review 73/2008
They do not, for example, cover how the supervisors of the large EU banks active in London will cooperate with the UK supervisory authorities to  8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  8  provide assurance about the risk being imported into the UK. Or how the EU authorities – at European and at member state level – will manage the pooling of EU risk in the global markets of London. We have a good basis on which to build. Most obviously we leave the EU with the same legislation and regulation – ‘equivalence’ at the starting point of this new relationship should not take the regulatory authorities on either side very long to establish. The Financial Policy Committee of the Bank of England has made clear that it is committed to maintain a level of financial sector resilience that is at least as great as that currently planned, which itself exceeds that required by international standards. On the supervisory side, the Bank of England has over the last 18 months signed 30 MoUs with EU and EU member state authorities covering pretty much all aspects of financial sector activity. The Financial Conduct Authority has done likewise. The issue therefore is not the starting point but how our regulatory frameworks and supervisory practices and cooperation will develop over the future. The UK has been very heavily involved and instrumental in the development of the EU regulatory framework. That will no longer be possible.

Indeed, some central banks have adopted interest rate guidance announcements covering the next two years. It is likely that monetary policy will, for some time, make use of a diversity of instruments. Macro-prudential measures will interact with monetary policies in a complex way. In that context, it is therefore all the more important to keep clarity of purpose and stick to two crucial features inherited from the pre-crisis consensus: the focus on price stability and, its corollary, central bank independence. There should be no ambiguity about what central banks are trying to achieve. The more non-conventional their actions, the less obscurity there should be as to their ultimate purpose. Non-conventional measures, like any others, can only achieve their objectives if inflation expectations are solidly and clearly anchored. From that point of view, calls by some economists and market participants for a temporary relaxation of price stability objectives  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  are, in my view, totally misguided. I find it significant, on the contrary, that two major central banks have recently decided to quantify their price stability objectives and enhance their communication accordingly. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
The Rt Hon Sir Edward George: Macro-economic policy and monetary stability Speech by The Rt Hon Sir Edward George, Governor of the Bank of England, at the Euromoney Bond Investors' Congress, London, 19 February 2002. *  *  *  Thank you Padraic for that kind introduction and for honouring me with the Euromoney Lifetime Achievement Award. It's nice to be prompted to recall some of the good times - and some of the not so good times in the course of my career at the Bank of England which I think of not so much in terms of achievement but of lifelong learning. We've come a long way since 1962 - both nationally and internationally - from different starting points certainly, and moving in fits and starts, at varying speeds and to varying degrees, in a process of continuing, indeed accelerating, change. But standing back and trying to look through the confusion of short-term events, I would pick out three broad trends for comment this morning. The first relates to macro-economic policy, where the earlier emphasis was very much on short-term demand management designed to manage the perceived trade-off between growth and employment, on the one hand, and inflation and a manageable balance of payments position, on the other.

Christian Noyer: A central banker’s personal perspective on hedge funds Introductory speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, at Conference on hedge funds, Washington DC, 15 April 2007. *  *  *  Thank you all for coming. It's a pleasure and a privilege to have you all here to day. Special thanks to the IMF and John Lipsky for organizing this event for us and with us. The purpose of our meeting is to present the special issue of our Financial Stability Review on hedge funds. So I want to say a few words on why we embarked on such a project and how we did it. As you noticed, this issue of our Review is mostly based on external contributions. Some authors are with me to day and I also want to thank them. We are very happy that we could assemble such an eminent roster of contributors. Let me say from the outset that we did not intend to reach a conclusion at this stage. The international community is working on this issue, in particular in the framework of the FSF. The main question is: how can we best reconcile keeping the positive inputs of this activity for financial markets functioning and innovation, while keeping the risks that may be generated for financial stability to a minimum. This is why there is a debate on hedge funds, which we think, is legitimate.
Bright spots exist but they are more segmented and there is a need to seek them out more carefully. This environment presents an opportunity for private capital to shine. Private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) managers are more nimble than investors in public markets. They can focus on investment themes in differentiated market segments and high growth markets to add diversification and enhance portfolio resilience. Let me suggest three pivots for private market investment strategies in the uncertain environment ahead. one, pivot from growth to sustained profitability; two, pivot to South and Southeast Asia as key growth markets; three, pivot to private credit as a new avenue for capital;  PE/VC managers are increasingly prioritising profitability over growth. More managers are rightly focused on selecting companies with strong balance sheets, low burn rates, and good prospects for profitability in an environment of lower growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates. As these shifts are being made to strengthen resilience, the industry can also position itself for more sustainable growth. Compared to public equity investment managers, PE/ VC managers typically have more control and influence over their portfolio companies, and greater access to information on their financial and sustainability performance. South and Southeast Asia are becoming one of the most important regions for private market investment opportunities. Last year, growth in PE/VC investments in India outpaced most major economies, including China. India and ASEAN together accounted for almost 30% of the record $ billion of private equity investments that poured into the Asia-Pacific region last year.

Elisabeta Gjoni: Innovation in the banking sector Speech by Ms Elisabeta Gjoni, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the conference on “Innovation in the banking sector”, Tirana, 14 May 2015. *  *  *  Good morning and welcome at the Bank of Albania to discuss about innovation in the banking sector. The Ministry of Innovation and the Bank of Albania, under the auspices of the Minister for Innovation and Public Administration, Ms Milena Harito, and the Governor of the Bank of Albania, Mr Gent Sejko, in collaboration with the Albanian Association of Banks, organise this activity jointly in a common approach to work together and discuss ideas among the main stakeholders of innovation in financial services. Honourable Minister Harito, Honourable Chairman of the Albanian Association of Banks, Your excellencies ambassadors, representatives of banks and businesses, and of the Albanian private sector, dear colleagues, I take this opportunity to thank you, on behalf of the Bank of Albania for your commitment and collaboration for this activity. We are living in a new phase of banking that is frequently qualified as a silent revolution in the way we do things, and the way we live, which poses challenges to any developing or influencing stakeholder. People use technology for the new ways of communication it offers: to create social groups, purchase online and why not, to use banking and financial services.
Real wages almost stood still during the period 19801993, but over the past ten years they have increased by an average of almost 3 per cent a year (see Figure 6). The foreign trade deficit transformed into a surplus and the same had happened with the government deficit. Open unemployment increased in connection with the crisis of the 1990s, from levels around 2.5 per cent to around 9 per cent. Since then, unemployment has fallen to a lowest level of just over 4 per cent in 2001. At present, unemployment is at a higher level than it was prior to the 1990s crisis. Out of a working-age population (20-64 years) of just over 5.3 million, around 900,000 persons are outside of the labour force. 245,000 are unemployed. This means that just over 4.1 million people are employed and that just under 1.2 million have no job. 1 The biggest problem in the Swedish labour market is thus, in my opinion, not open unemployment, but the fact that the number of those outside the labour force, that is, the number of people of working age who are not employed, has increased substantially since the 1990s crisis. In connection with the crisis, this share increased by 8-9 percentage points. It has since fallen by around 4 percentage points between 1995 and 2002, to increase once again in recent years (see Figure 7).

It becomes increasingly attractive to take a job rather than to be unemployed and receive benefit, the higher the wage in the new job compared with unemployment benefit. Compensation levels are a central factor in the economists’ explanation of the long-term rate of unemployment. However, studies carried out for the Nordic countries show that  1  According to Statistics Sweden’s labour force surveys. BIS Review 43/2006  3  compensation levels may in practice have less effects than they do in theory. 2 In recent years, the replacement ratios (the ratios between unemployment benefits and wages) have fallen somewhat and application of the rules has been sharpened. This could contribute to lower unemployment in future. Over the past decade, the number of people studying, taking early retirements and on sick leave has increased. The number of people on sick leave has almost doubled and the number of people taking early retirement has increased by around 30 per cent over the past ten years (see Figure 8). The increased amount of sick leave may, of course, be due to increased demands in working life and that labour intensity and stress have increased. Labour productivity has increased more quickly in Sweden than in other European countries over the past 10-15 years. If the increased productivity is an expression of a higher work tempo (which is not certain), one result could be increased ill-health due to stress-related illnesses, such as burnout. Another explanation for the increased sick leave could be that social norms have changed.
4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Migrants will be more willing to send and invest remittances if inflation is kept under control and exchange rate and financial conditions are reasonably stable. Furthermore, the Bank of Albania in cooperation with other governmental and nongovernmental institutions has been considering some more concrete measures in order to enhance the role of remittances in economy. I would like to mention a few of them: First: improvement of statistics on remittances. Reliable data regarding remittances is a key ingredient in designing and assessing policies about enhancing their developing role. The Bank of Albania has continuously stressed the importance of accurate estimation of capital inflows in the form of migrants’ remittances. Assisted by IMF missions, it has been working to bring the methodology closer to the international standards in defining remittances. Also, there is a close cooperation with our main partner countries Greece and Italy, as the main destinations of the Albanian emigrants, to harmonise our methodologies in order to improve the accuracy of remittances’ estimation. Second: Bringing workers’ remittances into formal channels. The high portion of remittances that goes through unofficial channels asks for actions to make official channels  4/5  more appealing in terms of efficiency, safety, cost and anonymity. Although, I mentioned earlier that emigrants seems to have more access to banking that their families back home, their relation with the banks is still difficult due to language problems (most often the forms are in the native language of the resident country) and in many cases excessive document requirements to open a bank account.
They overdid it, defaults started to rise, losses were taken and they toughened their terms again. The speed and severity of that cycle can have implications for financial stability as well as the stability of the broader economy. It is for that reason that there is a wide acceptance that there may be a case for monetary policy to “lean into the wind” in a cyclical upswing. 11 That has been one factor in my support for the four interest rate rises of the last year. If there is evidence of a cyclical, unsustainable, element in the supply of credit and asset prices the next questions are: •  where are we in the cycle, and  10  M King “Speech to CBI Dinner, Wales”, 11 June 2007. 11  C Bean “Inflation Targeting: The UK Experience”, speech at the Annual Conference of the German Economic Association, 1 October 2003. 6  BIS Review 73/2007  •  is the present stance of monetary policy sufficient to bring it back to a sustainable trend or, given the lags in the impact of interest rate changes, is it set to exacerbate the downturn? Current conjuncture So where are we now? The consumer credit market in the UK and the sub prime and broader housing markets in the US have turned down and, while the sub prime saga is still not played out, it still seems unlikely that it will have severe knock on effects on the broader economy.

The view that much of this growth reflects structural changes of this sort is supported in my view by the way the spread between deposit and loan rates of interest has vanished in the last few years (Chart 13). Of course that might be the product of competition between banks to lend more and attract more deposits; it also seems plausible that much of this lending is more about balance sheet restructuring than making a profit. However deposits associated with special purpose vehicles and intra-group only account for part of the growth. Even if we strip out all OFC deposits the growth rate of money has still been strong compared with the growth rate of money spending (Chart 14). In my final section I want to discuss what we should make of this. The significance of the money supply In the Treasury in the 1980s I was a close observer of the attempts to find a monetary aggregate as an intermediate target to guide policy. We were looking for both a predictable relationship between the policy instrument, interest rates, and the measure of money and a predictable relationship between that and our final objective, inflation. I remember the frustrations when both links proved unreliable. I am in no doubt that we are better off focussing directly on our final target, inflation. However I was struck, returning eighteen months ago to the economic debate, how the place of money in our debates had changed. Our model, like most others, is “new Keynesian”.