samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It is an important reason why the economic recovery and expansion have been weaker than we would like, despite the efforts of the Federal Reserve to stimulate economic activity. It also matters as we look forward. The good news is that, while the current expansion is quite old in chronological terms, it is still relatively young in terms of the health of household finances. Later in my remarks, I will talk a bit about the outlook for consumer spending in 2017 and beyond. It’s worth starting off with some background in order to develop the linkage between housing wealth and retail spending. Household incomes tend to increase as individuals grow older and become more skilled in their work and better matched to their employers. This tends to continue until they approach retirement age. This means that incomes are much higher later in life than when people first enter the workforce. Ideally, households would like to be able to even out their consumption based on their lifetime incomes, raising consumption in their early adulthood years. In general, this would mean that young people would consume a relatively high share of their incomes, while older people would save more. Indeed, young people might even wish to borrow against some of their future income so that they can enjoy some of those benefits earlier in their lifetimes. However, there are limits on the ability to shift consumption to earlier in life through borrowing. One problem is that lenders don’t have a reliable way to compel repayment of such debts.

As it is actually typical for most central banks in the world, through the work of its museum, the National Bank has gradually established itself as an important cultural treasury of the numismatic cultural legacy of civilizations that existed in this region, thus giving its contribution to the enrichment of the Macedonian society with permanent and irreplaceable values; those without which common knowledge is doomed to poverty, without which we would not be able to recognize and understand the universal values of civilization that have been mounting for centuries in the long civilization pace of human existence. The National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, together with the National Institution Stobi, have decided to approach the Macedonian public exactly on May 18th – the International Museum Day, jointly organizing this important exhibition, where for the first time an extremely valuable cultural heritage is presented to the public. It includes 19 unique fresco-fragments from the inner walls of the Old Episcopal basilica in Stobi, dating from the 4th century BC, which the history of art considers an exclusivity of paramount importance, given that this kind of artistic creation is not present in the wider range of the European mainland. Within the exhibition, the curators from the National Institution Stobi enabled us to closely look at the details of the mosaic floors that decorated this building. In addition, part of the exhibition are also the unique fresco-details that adorned the baptistery, which is located next to the Basilica.
The US economist Robert Gordon says that the pace of innovation has slowed down substantially since the 1970s and that today’s innovations do not provide the same productivity gains as the earlier ones, which should dampen the global willingness to invest. Demographic developments affect the composition of the population and can also have consequences for saving and investment. We are now heading towards an  20 For a description of the method, see De Rezende (2017) and De Rezende and Ristiniemi (2018). 17 [24]  increasingly ageing population with more old-age pensioners and fewer children. Demographical factors are generally difficult to analyse and there are arguments that global saving can both increase and decrease as a result of demographic developments. Seen in a life cycle perspective, we save the most when we are of working age. This is when most of us earn the most and are motivated to save for our retirement. The majority of household savings and labour supply therefore comes from people of working age. Minors and children have little income and consume from their parents’ incomes and therefore contribute negatively to total savings. Old-age pensioners also contribute negatively as their labour supply is small and they largely live off their savings. Figure 12.

Such reports do not in any way implicate the customers of any unlawful activity or that investigation will commence as soon as the STRs or CTRs are lodged. Let me reiterate that the submission of these reports is to facilitate the gathering of financial intelligence for analysis purposes. Then, it is equally important to establish a range of red flags to enable detection of suspicious transactions. One important area is to be alert on high risk jurisdictions. Bank Negara Malaysia has, from time to time, provided information on this area such as circulars on countries that are deficient in their AML/CFT regime as identified by the FATF. In addition, please do keep yourself updated on sanctions from the United Nations as well as reports from multilateral organisations, such as the UNODC, which report on AML/CFT matters for a number of countries. Information from various sources would support the STRs and CTRs mechanism. The effective implementation of internal AML/CFT programme relies strongly on the capacity and capability of the resources supporting the programme. This is translated into the third  4  BIS Review 99/2010  key aspect of the AML/CFT programme, that is the provision of adequate and applicable resources to the compliance section of your institution. It is the responsibility of your Board and management to ensure that the compliance section is given due consideration and importance in terms of resources. It is within this context that I see the financial institutions corporate social responsibility (CSR) should be undertaken.
To put it in another way, the framework in question is intended to establish a balance between flexibility and safety, gradually easing the burden on employment, increasing the firms’ and workers’ capacity to adopt to changes, increasing the quality of workers that are transferred from the agricultural sector, and developing active labor policies to meet labor market’s needs. In the last part of my presentation, I would like to briefly mention the current account deficit problem. As it is known, in line with the high growth rate, an upward trend is observed in the current account deficit. Today, the primary reason of the current account deficit is that investments grow faster than savings. In 2005, the current account deficit was recorded as USD billion 23.1 billion and the ratio of current account deficit to national income was 6.4 percent. In this ratio, the impact of energy prices, which is composed of the prices of crude oil, natural gas and coal, was 1.4 points and the impact of the rise in crude oil prices alone was 1.1 points. By April 2006, the current account deficit increased to USD 26.8 billion. However, the question is not the level itself but its sustainability. When global trends are analyzed, it is observed that countries, which have succeeded in increasing financial and economic integration and reinforced macroeconomic stability, are able to sustain higher current account deficits compared to the past.

The success attained in these three areas, which are interlinked with each other and shape expectations, has activated Turkey’s economic potential. In my opinion, the milestone in attaining enhanced confidence, stability and predictability of economic policies and especially of monetary policies, was the Central Bank of Turkey becoming independent in 2001 with the amendment to Central Bank Law, and its becoming primarily committed to achieving and maintaining price stability. Starting from 2001, when the Central Bank achieved its independence, Turkey has been experiencing a ‘disinflation process’. In the four years to follow, inflation targets were announced, these targets were achieved and a strong and reliable monetary policy history was established. With determined implementation of macroeconomic policies, particularly of fiscal policy, accompanying a large number of significant structural reforms, the strong support of international institutions and the perspective of the European Union, this process, as a whole, has established a more reliable, stable and predictable economic environment. BIS Review 68/2006  1  This environment should definitely be maintained and any kind of efforts and discourses that may raise doubts about the determination of economic policies or worsen expectations should be avoided. The stage Turkish economy has reached is the concrete proof to what extent price stability-centered macroeconomic stability is significant and vital for achieving sustainable growth, an increase in employment and an improvement in welfare, which are the ultimate objectives of economic policies. Within this framework it can be clearly seen that price stability is not a monetary policy cliché.
Nocera noted that “in 2007, the chief executives of the Too Big to Fail Banks made, on average, $ million … more than double the compensation of the top nonbank Fortune 500 executives.” A recent survey conducted for the Wall Street Journal of CEO compensation at 350 public companies shows that financial services compensation has been tempered; the rate of increase in compensation for 2010 was just 1 percent.11 The Journal attributed this to higher levels of scrutiny of financial firms as well as pressure from shareholders and regulators. Even so, some financial-sector CEOs enjoyed robust increases in their total compensation, including a 74 percent increase and a 51 percent increase at two of the five largest U.S. banking organizations. Interestingly, the trading revenue of these two firms accounted for almost half of the $ billion in total trading revenue mentioned by Mr. Wilmers. These recent numbers buttress Nocera’s reasonable conclusion that bank CEOs “were being compensated in no small part on their trading profits – which gave them every incentive to keep taking those excessive risks.” I am sympathetic to these concerns. I have no problem with risk takers being rewarded with large compensation packages. I put my own and my partners’ capital at risk for the 20 years I operated in the markets and profited handsomely. But I never was provided with capital that was safeguarded by government guarantees.

Richard W Fisher: Containing (or restraining) systemic risk – the need to not fail on “too big to fail” Remarks by Mr Richard W Fisher, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, before the Market News International Seminar, New York, 6 June 2011. *  *  *  The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. Thank you for that kind introduction. This discerning audience no doubt noted that despite being overeducated, I am not a formally trained economist. I do not have a Ph.D. in economics; those who do will correctly deduce that I am somewhat “dismal” in comprehending the arcana of “the Dismal Science.” After my undergraduate education in economics and my studies at Oxford, I took a different path. I earned an MBA and then went to Wall Street and into funds management before cashing out and taking to public service. My perspective on monetary policy and regulation is shaped less by theory and more by my experience as a market operator. I confess that in matters of monetary policy and regulation, I am often in the minority. This does not make me the least bit uncomfortable. The majority opinion is not always right; indeed, my experience as an investor has biased me to conclude that more often than not, the consensus view is the wrong view, even among the most erudite.
The interest rate decision and our forecast for the interest rate To summarise, one can say that two forces are pulling in opposite directions (slide 13). One is the stronger development here at home, and the other is a slightly weaker demand abroad. But even if we expect that slightly poorer international growth will have a dampening effect on the Swedish economy, this is not sufficient to hold back the increased cost pressures. The interest rate therefore needs to be raised, and this was what we did around two weeks ago (slide 14). With regard to the future repo rate, our forecast remains largely the same as in June, despite the fact that a lot has happened in the world economy since then. So to keep the underlying inflation rate around our target of 2 per cent a couple of years ahead, our assessment is that it is necessary to raise the repo rate slightly further in the future – to around 4.25 per cent during the first half of 2008. This interest rate policy should at the same time contribute to balanced growth in production and employment. A couple of words about uncertainty – a forecast and not a promise There is always considerable uncertainty regarding future economic events. This means there is also considerable uncertainty regarding future repo rate movements. The interest rate path we have published is a forecast. It is not a promise! There are primarily two risk scenarios involved this time.

And by being clear about how we view future monetary policy we can also increase the efficiency of monetary policy (slide 1). It is not merely the current interest rate decision and the current level of the interest rate that are important to future inflation and demand in the economy. Households and companies do not base their financial decisions only on the current interest rates. Expectations of how the repo rate will develop over the coming years are at least as important. But there are also other reasons for the increased openness. As I mentioned earlier, public support and legitimacy are a fundamental requirement for monetary policy to work. We have freedom with responsibility and with this come demands for insight and accountability. Openness is also something that has long imbued Swedish public administration. The principle of free public access which means that public authorities' activities shall as far as possible be carried out openly, was established as early as the late 18th century, a time when few other countries had such ideas. So this is a long tradition we are maintaining. The fact that we are examined closely is also something that affects the efficiency of our work. The more open we are, the easier it is for a member of the Committee on Finance or any other member of society to evaluate how well monetary policy works. Clarity and increased openness outwards lead to a better discussion of monetary policy.
BIS Review 113/1999  2  Until a decade ago, one might have been fooled into thinking that there were in fact two separate European identities supported by two distinct economic systems. However, this would be to deny the close ties which still existed, even under the difficult circumstances of the time, between countries both east and west of the Iron Curtain. Events since the fall of the Berlin Wall have now shown that this difficult period did not destroy but merely delayed a process of further European integration – including both East and West – which is a natural consequence of our shared political and economic interests and our common cultural heritage. Ever since the velvet revolutions which swept across central and eastern Europe a decade ago, it has been apparent that, as part of their difficult transition to properly functioning market economies, these countries would become increasingly integrated with the economies of western Europe. Moreover, it was clear that this process, with its ultimate objective of accession to the European Union, could not be achieved instantaneously, but would have to be extended over a period of time, in some cases a considerable period of time. No other scenario could be foreseen, given the largely uncharted path which these countries had to tread in dismantling the old system of central planning and replacing it with the structures necessary to support a properly functioning market economy.

The ceiling, being the average in the last decade of our 22 competitor countries, reflects our determination to be internationally competitive with them for the years to come. Our inflation targeting model, although linear-quadratic, shows the zone or banding features by exhibiting a fan-shaped prediction both for the GDP and inflation. The Inflation Report that we issue at the end of each quarter shows an advanced feature in that it gives a sensitivity analysis around a band of exchange rate and a range of oil prices, something countries more advanced than us have hitherto been unwilling to enter into. But as I have said, we are trying to be transparent and trying to get our people and investors to be able to act as accurately as possible and to form a view as to what the future of the economy might look like. We believe entirely that the better the estimates, the lower will be the costs one puts or has to put for taking the risk of investing in the economy and that, in the long run, the country will be more competitive using less resources to produce the same goods other countries are producing. For this reason, we are constantly trying to improve our techniques.
Henrique Meirelles: Regulation and international standards in Brazil, the US, the EU and Switzerland Speech by Mr Henrique Meirelles, Governor of the Central Bank of Brazil, at the First International Conference on Law & Economics, IBMEC São Paulo, in cooperation with the Foundation for Law and Economics at the University St Gallen, Switzerland, held in São Paulo, 2 April 2009. *  *  *  The world is experiencing the most severe economic and financial crisis in 80 years. What started as a deleveraging process in the US banking system has extended to a strong downturn not only in advanced economies, but also in the emerging world. It is emblematic that we are here today in São Paulo discussing regulation at a time the issue is also being discussed at the meeting of heads of states of the G-20 in London. Much of the focus of the meeting relates to the redesign of the international financial system and its regulation, including possibly the outline of a sort of international financial regulator. The current financial turmoil is ultimately a result of the failure of regulators, supervisors and policymakers in the advanced economies to prevent excessive risk-taking and leverage and to account for the interplay between regulated and non-regulated markets, partly due to their fragmented regulatory frameworks, partly due to legal restrictions on information and data sharing. Lax regulatory standards, coupled with poor risk management practices, deleterious incentives for risk-taking and deficient corporate governance structures in financial institutions are costing the global economy a high price.

I believe we need to have this new framework in place by 2010, as the current crisis is left behind, hopefully, and growth and stability are restored. As part of the work program already laid down in the G-20, critical points in the reform include the need to make regulatory capital more neutral over-the-cycle, by integrating the macro prudential framework into the required capital of individual institutions; the need to reach, with prudential regulation and supervision, all quarters of the financial industry; and the need to enhance transparency of financial instruments and markets. Thank you very much. 2  BIS Review 44/2009
Since December 2004, key interest rates have risen from 2.25% to 5.25% in the United States, from 4.75% to 5.75% in the United Kingdom and from 2.00% to 4.00% in the euro area. As regards the latter, the seven increases in interest rates implemented since December 2005 have, as mentioned above, been accompanied by strong GDP growth, and during this period monetary policy has ensured price stability at the same time as more than two million jobs were created. The ECB’s monetary policy stance has aimed, in accordance with the Treaty, to maintain price stability over the long term. In sync with the consolidation of growth in the euro area, it has gradually been adjusted upwards, with the Governing Council striving consistently to calibrate interest rates as precisely as possible to allow growth to firm, while ensuring it is not jeopardised by mounting inflationary pressures. Price stability is foremost among the objectives assigned to central banks in all countries. This is not a random choice. It is the fruit of experience. Many countries have attempted, over recent decades – and particularly after the oil shocks at the end of the last century – to stimulate growth via expansive monetary policies. All of these attempts failed. Inflation rose, sometimes to very high levels, without there being any improvement in employment. Two lessons have been learned from this period, which still inform the conduct of monetary policy today.

Documented studies have shown how simply introducing an affordable, safe and accessible avenue for savings resulted in increased spending towards healthcare, education and nutrition. It has empowered women with more decision-making power and enabled children to spend more on school supplies that ultimately led to better test scores. Insurance has also been shown to play an important role in encouraging micro enterprises and low income households to make productive investments without the fear of natural disasters or medical emergencies wiping away their hard-earned assets and savings. By providing opportunities and the foundational knowledge to low income individuals and entrepreneurs to gain access to credit, increase savings and manage their exposures, this would greatly improve the probability of success in business and enhance socioeconomic mobility. This in turn will bring many important benefits to society. These benefits might be difficult to quantify but are obvious and far reaching. This is illustrated in the story of a Malaysian micro-entrepreneur who spent 10 years selling raisins and dates from street corners in and around Kuala Lumpur. He travelled daily to and from night markets and mosques on his motorcycle; his fortunes often at the mercy of unpredictable weather. But opportunity beckoned when a micro loan was obtained in 2011, which enabled him to rent a permanent physical space and invest in a basic logistics system to stock and deliver goods to customers. With the continued support of his bank, business grew, three more stores were opened and sales increased fivefold.