samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Svein Gjedrem: Economic perspectives Address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the meeting of the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank, Oslo, 14 Thursday 2008. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. *  *  *  Introduction Henrik Wergeland was born 200 years ago. He worked in the vicinity of the central bank in periods. His plays were performed at the Christiania Theatre, which was located at Bankplassen, and as national archivist his office was located at Akershus fortress, a stone's throw from the central bank. Wergeland lived near Grønlia below Ekeberg. He travelled to town by rowing across Bjørvika. He moored his boat near Bekkevold’s pub on Skippergata, which is today known as "Grei Kafé". That is also where he met the proprietor’s daughter, Amelia Sofie, who became his wife. 1 Wergeland wrote a poem “Follow the Call”, which includes a well known verse: “But our world must still be young, Saga of each race must be still merely its cradlesong and its childhood fairy tale. Creatures from the age of chaos […]” 2 Chaos and fear exploded with full force in the financial markets last autumn. We are again witnessing that market participants suffer from a short memory span. Crises, imbalances and bubbles House prices in the US started to fall in 2006.

The EEA and WTO agreements resulted in stronger competition and increased flows of goods and services, labour and capital. As a result of the 1992 tax reform, the welfare state could be funded with reduced impact on wealth creation. The framework conditions for the electricity market, telecom market, aviation and broadcasting were changed. Trade was liberalised. State-owned companies were listed on the stock exchange and new forms of managing public agencies were developed. Industrial policy no longer kept unprofitable enterprises afloat. And last but not least, in Norway as in other countries, normbased or rule-based monetary and fiscal policy was introduced. The shift gave a boost to the economy, but in recent years it has been accompanied by a change in the distribution of income between labour and capital. This is probably a result of structural changes in the global economy. A rising share of the global production of goods and services is moving across the Pacific. Cheap Asian labour has changed industry structures and trading patterns in many Western countries, including Norway. New producer countries are fuelling competition, but are also creating new markets and producing cheap consumer goods. There has been a sustained rise in employment and wealth creation in the West. China, India and other emerging economies have doubled the supply of labour on the global market. 5 This has helped paved the way for strong growth, but has also curbed wages in many occupations in a number of industrialised countries. Norwegian households have enjoyed lower prices and a broader range of goods.
For macroeconomic policies, there is an important  3  Claro, Sebastián. Presented at the V Chile-China Entrepreneurial Meeting, Centro Cultural de Carabineros, Santiago, 10 June 2011. For transcript, see Central Bank of Chile website: www.bcentral.cl. 4  See Ministry of Finance of Chile website: www.hacienda.gov.cl. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  challenge in facing a period of temporarily high terms of trade, and the improved external financing conditions that become available as a result. The experience of many countries shows that the best policy mix is sound fiscal discipline, prudent financial regulation, and a monetary policy framework that combines price stability and flexible exchange rates. A sound fiscal policy not only smoothes the business cycle and helps minimize foreign exchange fluctuations, but also avoids commitments to spending on outlays that depend on uncertain future income. Fiscal policy in Chile has been moving in that direction for decades, the importance of which cannot be overemphasized. Sound banking supervision is key for several reasons, among others because the intermediation of large capital inflows – in a context of upward pressures on asset prices – may lead to excessive risk taking. The reversal of these conditions has hit particularly hard in previous financial crises, where risktaking by financial institutions prompted aggressive deleveraging, with strong implications for credit and output. For this reason, in circumstances like these it is extremely important to closely monitor the prices of key assets and risk-taking patterns in the financial system. Finally, regarding monetary policy two issues are worth noting.

What we have to do, in actually operating monetary policy is to monitor all the relevant evidence as it emerges for signs that the economy is proving to be either stronger or weaker than we expect, and modify our view of the prospect for inflation - and our monetary policy - in the light of that. And in that context I repeat the assurance, which I gave recently to the TUC in Blackpool, that we will act symmetrically. We will be - have been - just as rigorous in reducing interest rates with the overall evidence pointing to the balance of risks to inflation on the downside, as we have been - and will again be - in raising rates with the evidence pointing to a significant or sustained overshoot of the inflation target. Now there are those - perhaps even one or two of you here this evening - who regard this assurance as cold comfort. It misses the point - they say - because the present approach to monetary policy focuses too narrowly on inflation. What we want - they say - is a monetary policy which puts more emphasis on growth and employment. You hear this complaint not just in this country but increasingly these days in Continental Europe. I must say, President, that it leaves me totally bemused. What it suggests is that growth and price stability are seen as alternatives - you can have a bit more of one if you’re prepared to accept a bit less of the other.
Although an understandable response to the events of the past few years, an increased prevalence of self-insurance is not good for the efficient functioning of our economy. The scarring effects of the financial crisis and the uncertainty it brought with it, together with the fiscal consolidation and the weakness of the euro area, are likely to continue to weigh on the recovery over the next few years. Yes: our economy appears to have turned a corner. And yes: there are good reasons for optimism that the recovery will persist. But we can’t take it for granted: there’s still a long way to go. And that sense of how far there is to go underpins the policy guidance provided by the Committee earlier this year and takes us to our third and final question: what next for monetary policy? What next for monetary policy? The primary objective of monetary policy remains to hit the Government’s 2% target for CPI inflation. Despite missing the target for much of the past five years, I’ve no doubt that the credible nominal anchor it provided served our economy well during the crisis. Indeed, without that credibility it wouldn’t have been possible to loosen monetary policy as aggressively as we did in order to support output and jobs. As we have seen, the good news is that inflation has fallen sharply over the past few months and the 2% target is now in sight for the first time in over 4 years. But this isn’t a time for complacency.

To repeat, inflation has been above the 2% target for most of the past five years. There are good reasons why policy wasn’t tightened in order to bring inflation back to target more quickly. But ultimately, the MPC will be judged by the success of our actions, not the elegance of our arguments. We need to demonstrate our commitment to bring inflation back to target and to keep it there. But we have also needed to trade off the speed with which we bring inflation back to target against the support that monetary policy can provide to the recovery. The MPC’s forward guidance gives greater clarity about our view of the appropriate trade-off. More important for us today, our guidance is rooted in the recognition that it’s a long way back to the economy being fully recovered. The damage and losses associated with the financial crisis and the years of frustration and disappointment that followed won’t be reversed simply by one or two quarters of strong growth. Our guidance makes clear that we intend to maintain the current exceptionally stimulative stance of monetary policy until we’ve  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  seen a sustained period of strong growth and the margin of slack in the economy has narrowed significantly, as long as this does not pose risks to either price or financial stability. As you may know, our guidance was framed in terms of so-called thresholds and knockouts.
and Author D., Levy F., Murnane R. “The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2003. 20  The literature, which shows these problems is very extensive, for example: Hanson G., Mataloni R., Slaughter M. “Expansion Abroad and the Domestic Operations of U.S. Multinational Firms”, mimeo, 2003; Landefeld, Mataloni (2004) op. cit. ; Desai M., Foley F., Hines J. “Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Economic Activity”, NBER Working Paper 11717; Mankiw N.G., Swagel P. “The Politics and Economics of Offshore Outsourcing”, mimeo, November 2005. 21  For example, Blinder A. “The Fear of Offshoring”, Princeton University, mimeo, October 2005. 10  BIS Review 64/2006  -  Does the Polish educational system provide continuing training, and in particular, are we able to offer quick and smooth re-qualification of workforce that is prone to loose jobs in companies or industries which cannot stand the global competition? -  Are there sound relations between businesses and universities in Poland, which would deliver a large number of innovations? -  Is the public administration in Poland stimulating the innovation process (e.g. through the use of modern communication channels, giving up paperwork for the Internet, etc.)? -  Do we create and support organizations for Poles emigrating abroad, to help them maintain their relation with the country and facilitate their return to set up their own companies? -  Do we conduct an active policy of developing business contacts and personal connections on the fast growing markets?

For instance, South Korea is the eleventh global economy with th the voting share of 0.77%, which makes it hold 28 position among the IMF participants; whereas as per analyses of Kelkar V. et al. ”The International Monetary Fund: entitled Integration and Democratization in the 21st Century”, presented at the meeting of G24 in Manila, 17 - 18 March 2005, the total vote of Brazil, China and India in international institutions is equal to the total of Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands, whereas the total GDP of the first group of countries based on PPP is fourfold higher, with a 29 times larger population. 2  BIS Review 64/2006  Chart 1. Global demographic trends – the world population according to UN forecasts  LO – left axis (LA) PO – right axis (RA) Africa – (LA) Europe – (RA) The rest of the world – (RA) Asia – (LA) North America – (RA) Note: „LA”, „RA” mean the left and right axis, data in million persons. Source: the UNO, http://esa.un.org/unpp/  Hence the demographic developments, supported by the globalization mechanisms which have led to the establishment of the global labour market, will drive Asia and possibly some areas of Africa to become fierce competitors for Europe and the US in the forthcoming decades. There are many estimates that show the sizes of particular economies in the decades to come, based on demographic trends, assumptions concerning the long-term growth of performance, or changes in real FX rates.
21  -1.8  -10 2001- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  2001- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018

2 The three lines of defense model creates a set of layered defenses that align responsibility for risk taking with accountability for risk control and provide effective, independent risk oversight and escalation. In the three lines model, the assignment of risk management roles is clear and comprehensive in order to prevent gaps,  1  https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoints.html. 2  IIA Position Paper: The Three Lines of Defense in Effective Risk Management and Control, January 2013. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  ambiguities, or overlaps in responsibility. More specifically, the business areas are the first line of defense, independent risk management units are the second line of defense, and internal audit is the third line of defense. In the Bank, the first line of defense is comprised of the business areas that execute and support the execution of the Bank’s mission. These first line units are responsible for both the operational activities that result in risk as well as control of the resulting risks. The first line “owns” its risk in the sense that it is accountable for both positive and negative outcomes and is empowered to manage the distribution of outcomes. At its core, the three lines model recognizes the strong incentives for effective risk management created by aligning accountability and responsibility. In other words, from the perspective of the first line, there is “skin in the game,” and risk management is not viewed as someone else’s problem.
Accommodative monetary policy and the Government’s subsidised lending programme caused a surge in this market. Hence, in order to maintain the high quality standards for mortgage loans, on 1 August we increase the buffers for mortgage loans with a down payment of 15% to 20% to their prepandemic levels. In addition, there is a real threat of an overheating in consumer lending. We estimate that the growth rate in this market might reach 20% this year, whereas household incomes are not recovering that fast. If we do not take any response measures, this might also provoke social and financial stability risks. Therefore, we are reintroducing macroprudential measures returning the risk-based buffers to the pre-pandemic levels. I would like to stress that we will increase the buffers further if growth in this segment does not subside. Another issue related to limiting risks for retail borrowers, for households, is how to regulate lending at floating interest rates. A floating interest rate is a common mechanism in corporate lending, whereas it might involve risks in retail lending. In contrast to businesses, people are not always able to properly assess 3/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  their future risks and might agree to borrowings at interest rates that might rise. This is especially important for a mortgage loan which is the largest one taken out by people over their entire life and the most demanding one since people might lose housing if they fail to repay their mortgage loans.

Ladies and gentlemen, to some, it would not be a surprise to note that the seminar comes shortly after the first anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, one of the first banks to fail in a series of cascading defaults of major international banks, which precipitated the onset of the current global financial crisis and the resultant worldwide economic recession. The case of Lehman Brothers is just one of the many that highlights apparent weaknesses in the global regulatory and supervisory environment. To this end, market practitioners and academics are still analysing and discussing the causes, prudential supervision frameworks, problem bank resolutions and strategies to avoid future systemic challenges. As the current global financial crisis has demonstrated, critical deficiencies still remain in risk management systems. Areas in need of critical enhancements include identifying key risks both within and across borders; assessing these risks, including stress testing and macroprudential analysis to determine the impact on the financial system; monitoring, developing coordination protocols, reviewing the regulatory frameworks, adopting appropriate risk management frameworks and adopting international accounting standards. While these structural deficiencies are not new, the current crisis has brought them to the fore. The speed at which the crisis has spread across the globe indicates that the development of coherent and rigorous frameworks for maintaining financial stability came too late for several countries, leading to adhoc and inconsistent policy responses.
More recently, this suburbanization trend seems to have halted; and there are signs that cities, especially major cities, have been gaining relative to their suburbs. It’s too early to say if this is the start of a secular trend, and the implications for Fairfield County are unclear. However, Stamford and Bridgeport stand to 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  benefit from a shift in preferences toward more urban living, given their high population densities and strong transit links to New York City. Even now, while Fairfield County may have lagged in job growth, population growth has remained quite sturdy – not only across the county, but here in Bridgeport as well. In fact, Bridgeport’s population has grown by about 6 percent since 2000 – its first sustained increase since the 1940s – while Stamford’s has grown by almost 10 percent. Fairfield County can leverage its proximity to the New York City job market. While most residents of Fairfield County rely on job opportunities locally, many residents commute to jobs in Manhattan. So the strength in New York City’s economy should be of significant help to Fairfield County. Over the past year, New York City’s economy has, on average, added more than twice as many jobs each month as the total expected job losses from the relocations of GE, UBS and RBS. While a majority of these jobs may not have been in highpaying-industry sectors, some of them were – especially in technology-related industries.

Collectively, our Cornerstone Members, Global Partners and Knowledge Partner will forge a community of practice to support the green transformation of commercial banks in Asia. 18. Today we are also publishing the Alliance’s first thought leadership paper, in collaboration with the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research. The paper presents a curated overview of the effects of climate risk on financial institutions and financial markets, methods for measuring climate risk, the evolving practices as well as regulatory initiatives that seek to address climate risk. 19. Ladies and gentlemen, we are excited to embark on the transition path with the Alliance members and partners. We are confident that the learning and sharing among peers will encourage cross-fertilisation of ideas and the continued advancement of green finance best practices. Starting from Hong Kong, we wish to create a lasting ripple effect in emerging markets throughout Asia and beyond that will contribute meaningfully to the global effort in tacking climate change through the power of finance. 20. Thank you. 1 Source: ASIFMA https://www.asifma.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/asifma-fosda-esg-  and-sf-data-challenges-and-opportunities-in-asia-f20201221c.pdf
We also conducted an array of awareness programmes for the general public on our clean note policy. Going forward, to improve currency operations and processes, the construction of a new secure storage facility has been initiated at the Centre for Banking Studies premises in Rajagiriya. The facility is expected to be operational from 2019. As a medium-term solution to improve operational efficiency and increase processing capacity of currency notes, we are planning 33  to redesign the current operational flow with the introduction of new machinery and equipment. We plan to issue a new note series, in 2021, with a view to enhancing the quality of currency notes. We are also planning to establish a proper mechanism to distribute coins and to introduce coin vending machines. Further, we intend to enhance contingency storage capacity for currency with selected Regional Offices, while introducing a stronger monitoring system for Cash in Transit (CIT) companies. Public Debt Management As the fiscal agent of the government, we continued to issue, service and manage public debt during 2018 with transparency and prudence and initiated several policies to ensure that the government’s financing requirements are met at the lowest possible cost with a prudent degree of risk, while ensuring debt sustainability. During 2018, we encountered several challenges in government debt management due to interest rate normalisation in the US, the skewed government financing requirement as well as uncertainties in the political sphere.

This figure, more than any other, underlines the gravity of the shock the UK economy has faced this year. The better news is that the economy began its recovery from this dramatic fall earlier, and has since recovered far-faster, than anyone expected. The speed and scale of the UK’s recovery has surprised to the upside, persistently and significantly, for at least the past four months. Back in May, the Bank expected GDP to be around 18% below its pre-Covid level on average during the third quarter. Consensus forecasts by professional economists were, at the time, weaker still. Four months on, we now expect GDP to be around 3-4% below its pre-Covid level by the end of the third quarter. In other words, the economy has already recovered just under 90% of its earlier losses. Having fallen precipitously by 20% in the second quarter, we expect UK GDP to have risen by a vertiginous 20% in the third quarter – by some margin its largest-ever rise. Put differently, since May UK GDP has been rising, on average, by around 1.5% per week. The pace of recovery has varied, starting slowly in May, picking up pace rapidly during June and July and is then expected to have slowed a little during August and September. Even if our GDP nowcasts for August and September come to pass, there remains an average recession-sized gap between output and its pre-Covid level.