samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The debt ratio has almost doubled in twenty years and this is not a sustainable development. There is a risk that overly optimistic expectations of low interest rates for a long time to come have contributed to increased indebtedness. And a rapid growth in debt, together with optimistic expectations, is a pattern that has often preceded financial crises. Even without a crisis, a large debt overhang will hamper economic developments when conditions change. If one wants to influence the incentives for households to take on debt, how effective might the potential measures be? And how do measures in the new field of macroprudential policy compare with other possible measures? Here we are still to a large extent on uncharted ground. But even if we cannot base our decisions on extensive theoretical and empirical research, we can at least gain a rough idea of the potential effects to be expected, by using some simple calculations. I would like to emphasise that the figures I will mention refer to partial and statistical calculations that are based on a number of simplifying assumptions and that they must therefore be taken with a pinch of salt. At the same time, the calculations illustrate the conditions for taking practical decisions. Ordinary households in Luleå, Upplands Väsby and central Stockholm Let us look at some “typical households”, ordinary Swedish households consisting of two adults and two children. Let us say that one of them comes from the municipality of Upplands Väsby outside Stockholm and one from the city of Luleå in Norrbotten.

Improving the OTC and commodity derivatives markets is a key part of this agenda, It is a complex matter and one in which alignment of details is essential to avoid regulatory arbitrage. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The third challenge is to enhance transparency across the board: with regards to markets, institutions, and products. Insufficient information contributes to mispricing of risks, mistrust among market participants, which can result into downturns and crises. At our October meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Central Banks Governors we will be discussing IOSCO “recommendations to promote markets’ integrity and efficiency to mitigate the risks posed to the financial system by the latest technological developments”. 2. Improving policy discipline globally  Aside from a more resilient global financial system, we need to have more disciplined macro policies as the lack of discipline in macroeconomic policies in several countries led to the build-up of unsustainable external imbalances before the financial crisis. There is still a gap between the degree of economic integration and the willingness of policy makers to take into account interdependence and spillovers. Keeping one’s house in order is no longer sufficient in an integrated world. Spillovers from the rest of the world can influence economies considerably. Multilateral surveillance is now being enhanced along two tracks. The informal G20 track and the formal IMF track. The G20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth, incorporates a first systematic multilateral assessment of global imbalances.
This relates to the effective functioning of the board – how it draws on different skill-sets amongst directors, how it sets strategies, and how it interacts with senior management to build knowledge and make decisions in the interests of shareholders. Well-functioning boards aimed at sustained performance are in truth work-in-progress in Singapore and elsewhere in Asia – we probably have more distance to cover in this regard than in compliance with rules. Many companies do not have a good mix of experience and skills amongst their directors. While some of the bigger companies may have the necessary resources and can seek outside help, there are a large number of companies that require help along this journey. We should therefore focus our energies not just on formulating sound rules and best practice codes, but on encouraging and helping companies to address practical issues in making their boards effective and high-performing. Corporate governance study commissioned by MAS and SGX This is one of the reasons why MAS and SGX jointly commissioned a study on improving the implementation of corporate governance practices in Singapore. This study was carried out by Associate Professor Mak Yuen Teen of the National University of Singapore’s Business School and the Corporate Governance and Financial Reporting Centre. The study focused on assessing the current state of corporate governance practices in Singapore and proposing practical measures to improve board effectiveness and governance. Details of the study can be found in the report, which MAS and SGX will be publishing on their websites later today.

For now, let me highlight two particular areas of the study’s recommendations that we have started working on. Professional development and training of directors One area of improvement is in the training of directors. Having committed and skilled directors is a key component in the effective functioning of the board. Director training is particularly relevant for new or first-time directors, to assist them in understanding their roles and responsibilities, and to equip them with the necessary skills. Even experienced directors need to continually upgrade their skills, to oversee and steer companies in today’s rapidly changing and globalised landscape. MAS has been in discussion with the Singapore Institute of Directors on how we can build on its very useful work to date, and develop a comprehensive and sustained approach to training and development of directors in Singapore. MAS will help to fund a study that will help to operationalise this comprehensive approach to training. The study will cover a few areas. First, it will look into benchmarking directors’ training and development against best practices in other leading jurisdictions. A number of jurisdictions have in the last few years developed extensive structured training programs for directors. Secondly, it will examine possible collaborative arrangements between a range of organisations and training providers. Thirdly, it will also focus on how best such training initiatives should be financed.
But that has not been the only shock markets have had to cope with. Chart 2  Chart 1 (a)  Ten year government bond yields Per cent  GDP in selected countries and regions(a)  9  Percentage change on 20 a year ago  8  15  7 6  10  5 5 4 0  3 2  -5  1 0 Jun 11  Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Germany Spain Italy US UK  Source: Bloomberg (a) Yields to maturity on ten-year benchmark government bonds. Data updated to 19 September. -10 2005  2006  2007  2008  China  US  2009  2010  2011  Euro area  2012 UK  Sources: Eurostat, National Bureau of Statistics of China, ONS, Thomson Reuters Datastream and US Bureau of Economic Analysis (a) Real GDP measures. Figures for China are nonseasonally adjusted. 1  Paul Fisher (2011), “The State of the Financial publications/Documents/speeches/2011/speech507.pdf  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Markets”,  http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/  1  Growth in Europe has been anaemic at best (Chart 2). Growth in the US has been a bit stronger but not enough to reduce an elevated unemployment rate. And we have seen indications of a slowdown in China and other large EMEs. Perhaps the most striking thing about this is the degree of co-movement in GDP growth rates across economies.

Ardian Fullani: Central banking in the time of integration Conclusions by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the Fifth Conference of the Bank of Albania on “Central Banking in the Time of Integration”, Tirana, 25 March 2005. *  *  *  Dear friends! During two days of the Fifth Conference of the Bank of Albania on “Central Banking in time of integration”, having guests from the country and international institutions, personalities of academic and banking area, too many important ideas and suggestions emerged. The tight agenda did not allow detailed discussion on them; however, I hope that they will serve as starting points for further debates and analyses to sort out central bank challenges in the time of integration. It is somewhat difficult to make a concise summary of numerous papers presented in this conference. I would categorize the main conclusion into two large groups according to the main pillars of the central bank, that is the price stability and the financial sector stability. Concerning the first pillar, that of price stability, the discussions were focused mainly on the monetary policy effectiveness and central bank independence. To maintain stability is more difficult than to achieve it. Prof. Bolle indicated in a very excellent way that current price stability should be considered as fragile, which requires constant efforts, either by the BoA or by other institutions.
Inflationary pressure stability is clearly illustrated by low rates of core inflation of non-tradable goods one during this period, being reflected also in checked expectations of economic agents of the market. Meanwhile, after a long non-inflationary period and confirming Bank of Albania forecasts, the annual change of consumer prices revealed a slightly increasing tendency over the second quarter of 2009. The annual inflation marked 2.3 percent in June, reflecting a more complete pass-through of exchange rate deprecation effect on consumer goods prices. The Bank of Albania estimates that this factor may play a higher role in the future for determining these prices, comprising premises for short-term and medium-term shocks on price level. In the face of these developments, the Albanian economy continued to be featured by low public and private savings rates even during the first half of 2009, associated with further enlargement of current account deficit and upward pressures on exchange rate performance. Simultaneous reduction of exports and imports, respectively by 19.6 and 6.3 percent on annual level, made the trade deficit contract by 1.3 percent during first five months of the year. However, reduction of emigrants’ remittances by about 8 percent during the first quarter and the service account deterioration, made the current account deficit record an annual growth of 5 percentage points of GDP during this quarter. Though this deficit goes for financing, to a large extent, the capital and intermediate goods of import, its sustainability deserves a greater attention.

The latter displayed different behaviour, according to maturity term. Short-term interest rates in the money market decreased, consequent to base rate cut and improved liquidity conditions. Long-term interest rates rose under the conditions of a high demand for long-term funds and growth of risk premium. Primary market interest rate rise was transmitted to interest rates of new Lek-denominated loans of more than 1-year maturity, influenced even by the overall lending tightening tendency. *** The Bank of Albania deems that the issues of liquidity, internal and external balances in the economy and the financial soundness constitute direct challenges on macroeconomic stability and long-term development of the Albanian economy. Their treatment should be constantly oriented towards the need for observing the necessary macroeconomic balances of the country. Price stability, smoothing of monetary indicators volatility, a sound and efficient financial system, as well as sound public and private sector’s balance sheets, impact on reducing the risk premium in the economy. Also, they open the way to attract foreign investments and cut the cost of borrowing from international markets. In this way, they provide an irreplaceable contribution to the country’s long-term growth. Further promotion of this growth requires constant structural reforms in the economy, which should not only address the deficiencies of our economy but also precede future development trends. Investment in infrastructure should be a priority of funds use in the economy.
To sum up the impact of the four key drivers of growth, deleveraging and demographics are quite unambiguously a dampener while energy appears a benign force. The long term trend for productivity is hard to predict. But even assuming a generally optimistic prognosis for productivity, it is quite likely that global growth in the next 20 years is likely to be lower than in the last 20. This means that returns from financial investments are also likely to be lower in the next 20 than in the last 20. Safeguarding long-term returns The modest outlook for long-term economic growth presents a major challenge for government funds to close the widening gap between their financing needs and investment returns. •  On the liabilities side, population ageing in the advanced economies will increase pension claims and place a heavier burden on social services such as healthcare. •  On the assets side, slowing global economic growth will constrain investment returns. There are three ways to narrow this mismatch between trends in assets and liabilities: •  The first is to reduce financing needs by lowering social expenditures or increasing fiscal revenues. Both are politically difficult to do. •  The second is to reach for yield by taking on various combinations of higher leverage, longer duration, and greater credit and liquidity risks. But the public perception and character of government funds limit their scope for aggressive risktaking.

Overall, in the years following the COVID-19 crisis, the average CET1 ratio has been slightly more than 1 pp above the average ratio of the period between the end of the global financial crisis and the start of the pandemic. In any event, Spanish banks’ CET1 ratio is at the lower end of the distribution for European banks of different sizes and business models. But it is well ahead of the average requirements and offers good aggregate loss-absorbing capacity. Final assessment Over a broader timescale, it is clear that the solvency and liquidity of both the Spanish and the European banking sector have improved substantially over the last decade. This has been driven, in part, by the internationally agreed regulatory reform, which in the European Union applies to all banks, irrespective of size. Indeed, the strengthening of the banking sector and the regulatory reform have proved vital to enable the sector to successfully overcome the extraordinary stress episodes of recent years. In Spain, the fact that business models are strongly oriented towards the retail segment bolsters their capacity to absorb adverse shocks to wholesale market financing conditions and has enabled them to record a favourable financial performance of late, both in terms of higher profitability and improved balance sheet quality. However, confidence in our banking system must not allow us to overlook the existing risks, which remain significant in both the short and the long run.
By supporting highly accommodative financial and credit conditions, our current monetary policy stance is underpinning the recovery of the euro area economy. The gradual reabsorption of economic slack is working its way through to underlying inflation. Continued monetary policy support is necessary to ensure a sustained convergence of inflation towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. This assessment was the motive for the Governing Council’s decision of December last year to extend the asset purchases until the end of 2017 – or beyond, if necessary. It is conditional on the continuing support from these and past measures that we expect to see a return of inflation to levels closer to 2% over the medium term. In providing the necessary degree of monetary accommodation going forward, the ECB will continue to adhere to its monetary policy strategy, that is look through transitory changes in inflation and remain focused on underlying inflation dynamics. The ups and downs of monthly data are not relevant if they are temporary and have no implications for the medium term outlook for price stability. I will focus my remarks today on the relationship between economic activity and inflation. Eurosystem staff analysis has identified a large degree of economic slack as an important factor behind subdued inflation dynamics in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis. Despite the ensuing economic recovery, other – mainly cyclical – forces have been exerting disinflationary pressures.

This package has delivered a broad-based easing of euro area financial conditions since June 4/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  2014: money market conditions have improved substantially; long-term government bond yields, corporate and bank bond yields, as well as bank lending rates to firms and households, have declined markedly; and positive credit growth has returned to the euro area.8 The exceptionally favourable financial conditions have helped the economy recover from the shock waves of the financial and sovereign debt crises. They have insulated the recovery from global headwinds that have engulfed the euro area over the last two years, such as the tensions in global financial markets in August 2015 and the slowdown of global demand since the first half of 2015. More recently, the firming recovery has also broadened across countries and sectors. As regards inflation dynamics, our determined policy actions have been material in warding off deflation. They have also contributed to a re-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations. Market-based measures of inflation expectations, however, have not yet returned to their precrisis levels. Underlying inflation dynamics remain subdued, and risks and uncertainties still prevail, especially those related to the geopolitical environment. To sum up, the ongoing economic recovery is still predicated to a large extent on very favourable financing conditions that, in turn, depend on continued monetary policy support. The firming recovery is not yet sufficiently robust to ensure a self-sustained convergence of inflation rates to levels closer to 2%.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: The development of Islamic finance Welcoming address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Global Islamic Finance Forum 2010, Kuala Lumpur, 25 October 2010. *  *  *  These are defining moments in the development of Islamic finance. In this current global economic environment of extraordinary challenges and uncertainties, Islamic finance is becoming very much a part of the journey to bring the world towards a new level of stability, prosperity and international integration that is inclusive. Whilst Islamic finance has come a long way and is set to continue its growth trajectory, new capabilities and strategies are needed to tap the immense opportunities from the growing internationalization of Islamic finance. It is my great pleasure and honour to welcome you this morning to this Global Islamic Finance Forum (GIFF) 2010. Allow me to express our gratitude to Duli Yang Teramat Mulia Raja Dr. Nazrin ibni Sultan Azlan Shah for gracing and addressing our gathering today, and to the Honourable Prime Minister of Malaysia, Yang Amat Berhormat Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib bin Tun Haji Abdul Razak for officiating this important forum. Since the dawn of this 21st century, Islamic finance has undergone the most dramatic transformation to its landscape. This period in the history of Islamic finance is remarkable for its many significant milestones and for the rapid growth that has been sustained.

Today, another important milestone is being achieved with the establishment of the International Islamic Liquidity Management Corporation (IILM), a liquidity management infrastructure to enhance the capacity of Islamic finance in facilitating efficient cross–border flows. This represents another major breakthrough for the Islamic financial services industry. [ It will enable more effective liquidity management not only for the Islamic financial institutions but also for the management of Islamic financial portfolios.] This development is also significant as it demonstrates an international collaboration among the Central Banks. The greater collaboration among regulators seen in this decade cumulatively serve to contribute towards the continued resilience of the global Islamic financial system. The foundations for the sustainable development of Islamic finance has raised the potential for the industry to have a greater role in the global landscape. As we usher into a new decade, it is timely for the industry to reflect on its existing strengths and build new capabilities to create new engines of growth in this next wave of market opportunities that are before us. This Global Islamic Finance Forum (GIFF) 2010 is designed to discuss these potentials. Following the success of the inaugural GIFF in 2007, GIFF 2010 has drawn more than 1000 participants from across the globe for the opportunity to have meaningful and catalytic engagement on issues concerning the future of global Islamic finance. This year’s gathering is taking place in the aftermath of the worst global financial and economic crisis of the modern era.
The present indicators of prices and economic growth are not yet at their long-term equilibriums; however, they do not present surprises that would call for immediate attention of the Bank of Albania and change of monetary and financial stability policies. They are in line with our expectations and are very well serviced by the actual decision-making course of action. In concrete terms, consumer prices, the main objective of the monetary policy, returned to an upward trajectory and are expected to progressively approach the 3% target. Economic activity 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  remains stable, at positive figures, reflecting a slight upward trend, and is expected to perform along similar trends in the future. Nevertheless, the current figures appear still far from the optimal conditions and there is place for further improvement in both the inflation rate and the economic activity. In addition, there is place for faster growth of lending and monetary expansion, yet, subject to the situation in the balance sheets of the private sector and banking system. The fall in interest rates is transmitted to all segments of the financial market, contributing to the decrease of existing credit costs and providing the possibility for investments in new projects. The monetary policy transmission has helped somewhat to mitigate the negative effects and improve the households and firms’ balance sheets.

Despite last year’s narrowing current deficit, Albania’s external position remains a constant structural weakness. The Albanian banking system is considered to have adapted commendably to this complex situation. I would like to underline that we have done an immense amount of work so far. Therefore, I take this opportunity to congratulate all central and local managing units of banks operating in Albania. During this period, the Albanian banking system has continued to expand its activity and lending to the economy. Financial soundness and profitability indicators have improved and system’s activity capitalization is in a good position. The banking sector remains the main actor of financial intermediation in Albania, whose financing continues to rely mainly on public deposits. The main problem of the banking system has been the growing non-performing loans share, which has also reflected the active policy of the Bank of Albania to enhance the transparency of banks’ balance sheets. Credit risk remains the primary risk to our banking sector. In response, the banking sector has established adequate reserve funds to buffer major shocks on the borrowers repayment capacity and market equilibrium. Stress tests support our conclusion on banking system resilience. The presence in this room of both the business community and the banking system suggests me to refer once again to the need for sincere cooperation of mutual benefit. With a few exceptions, I think this cooperation has been present and operational and has certainly supported in particular the country’s economic activity over the past years.