samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
2  In 1975, David R. Merrill, a law student, instigated legal proceedings against the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the US, charging that the FOMC violated the Freedom of Information Act by deferring public disclosure of its interest rate decision by 90 days. The case was eventually heard by the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court ruled that the Federal Reserve could continue its practice if it could provide an adequate explanation showing that immediate disclosure would significantly harm the Government's monetary functions or commercial interests. The Supreme Court left the assessment of this explanation to the district court. The district court concluded that it lacked the expertise necessary to substitute its judgment for that of the FOMC and the Federal Reserve did not begin to release its monetary policy decisions on the same day until 1994. See Marvin Goodfriend (1986): “Monetary mystique: secrecy and central banking”, in Journal of Monetary Economics, 17, no. 1, pp. 63-92. 3  The bill also enabled Catholics to serve in the British army. British military forces were involved in conflicts in many countries at the time and needed more manpower. See A. Andréadès (1966): History of the Bank of England 1640-1903, 4th edition, Frank Cass & co. Ltd.  BIS Review 140/2009  1  In Norway, monetary policy was probably also perceived by many as something mysterious and remote.

Norman T L Chan: Removal of RMB conversion limit for Hong Kong residents Speech by Mr Norman T L Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong, 12 November 2014. *  *  *  I am glad to announce that the RMB conversion limit for Hong Kong residents of RMB20,000 per day will no longer be applicable with effect from 17 November 2014. Under the new arrangement, banks will square their positions arising from RMB conversions conducted with Hong Kong residents in the offshore market instead of the onshore market. As a result, the prevailing conversion and other relevant restrictions for onshore conversion will hence be no longer applicable. The HKMA has just issued a circular to banks setting out the detailed arrangements. The HKMA has had many rounds of discussions with the banking industry and Mainland authorities on relaxing the restrictions on RMB currency conversions by Hong Kong residents. We consider that the best option is for RMB conversions by Hong Kong residents to be done in the offshore market instead of the onshore market. With the size of the offshore RMB liquidity pool in Hong Kong exceeding RMB 1 trillion, and considering the scale and depth of the RMB foreign exchange market, we do not foresee any problem for banks to square their positions for Hong Kong residents’ RMB conversions in the offshore market.
These ancillary institutions must have the ability to provide their services that are in accordance with the Shariah principles. Tenth, consumer education and awareness about Islamic banking is critical to its success and future development. A consumer education programme needs to be developed to enhance public awareness of the features of Islamic banking products and services. Translating the action plan into reality The appropriate Islamic banking system for a country would be largely based on the national agenda of the respective countries, the objectives that the system hopes to achieve and the available resources. For the adoption of a dual banking system, the conventional banks have the option of offering Islamic banking products on a window basis or via full-fledged Islamic branches or an Islamic subsidiary. Conventional bank may also be converted to operate as an Islamic bank. Alternatively, the Islamic banking system may only comprise Islamic banks newly created to operate in parallel with the conventional banking system. In addition, the government can upgrade existing Islamic savings institutions to Islamic banks; license foreign Islamic banks as a consortium or on joint venture with local banks; or a combination of these options to achieve its objective. Alternatively, a country may wish to adopt a system-wide Islamic banking and finance, a single banking system that fully accords the Shariah framework. Allow me to take the opportunity to present the Malaysian experience. The development of Islamic banking has transitioned through four distinct phases. The first phase involved the establishment of Islamic financial institutions.

As the Times reported 20 years ago, “the pound’s firmer tone, and softer German money market rates, could tempt the Chancellor to shave half a point off base rates to coincide with the Prime Minister’s speech at Brighton today”. The party conference season is no longer a time for speculation about changes in interest rates. No doubt we shall learn a great deal about the appropriate allocation of responsibilities to monetary policy, on  32  10  Bernanke (2011). BIS central bankers’ speeches  the one hand, and macro-prudential policy, on the other, over the next twenty years. But we should not throw out the baby with the bathwater. Low and stable inflation is a pre-requisite for economic success. Much of what I have said is, I hope, a call to arms for economists, and especially younger economists, to rethink the foundations of our macroeconomic theories. Not to abandon rigorous modelling – after all, in the words of last year’s Nobel Prize winner Tom Sargent “it takes a model to beat a model” – but to recognise that in our present models the way we think of human behaviour in the face of irreducible uncertainty is seriously incomplete. Ideas matter far more than is usually recognised in the public discussion of monetary policy which concentrates too much on personalities. Keynes and Stamp both knew that.
4  BIS Review 107/2007  BIS Review 107/2007  5  6  BIS Review 107/2007  BIS Review 107/2007  7  8  BIS Review 107/2007  BIS Review 107/2007  9  10  BIS Review 107/2007  BIS Review 107/2007  11

In my view, however, the technical innovations are not the only explanation. The deregulations that began in the 1980s, as well as the consolidation of the federal budget during the 1990s, should also be mentioned as major factors. The deregulations have helped to strengthen America’s corporate sector and the improvement in the federal finances led to increased confidence among households and firms as well as somewhat lower long bond rates. Low interest rates and higher productivity growth then paved the way for the massive wave of investment. The U.S. economy’s growth rate shot up and unemployment dropped to levels that hardly anyone believed could be combined with low, stable inflation. As outcomes proved earlier forecasts wrong, assessments of how strong demand’s long-term growth could be without generating rising inflation were adjusted gradually upwards. Turning then to share prices in the United States, in the first place the Nasdaq exchange with its predominance of high-tech companies, we can see that expectations of corporate profits rose rapidly  BIS Review 20/2001  1  to levels that had not been seen since the 1930s. The trend peaked last year with share prices at record levels and a GDP growth rate above five per cent, in some quarters even higher. The reverse side of the medal lies in the imbalances that have built up during this period. The United States has been living on borrowed money; even though the federal budget was first consolidated and then generated a growing surplus, investment exceeded aggregate saving.
Internet compared with railways Simplifying somewhat, the advent of the Internet can be compared with the era of railroad construction in Sweden in the second half of the nineteenth century. In the initial phase there was a boom for those who constructed the railways and manufactured rolling stock. In the closing decade of the century Swedish firms began to produce locomotives; previously BIS Review 118/1999  2  that had been the preserve of British manufacturers. The Swedish firms took over the domestic market and were even able to export their products. Much the same happened with the manufacture of passenger carriages and goods wagons. Today we can see similar developments in the IT industry. Besides the giant, Ericsson, Sweden has many different IT enterprises. But growth is still being driven not so much by users of the new communication facilities as by the production of new possibilities. To continue with the comparison, in the next phase people started to travel by rail. A journey from Stockholm to Gothenburg admittedly took 11 hours and 45 minutes in 1865, but that was nothing compared with a horse-drawn carriage. Travelling became quicker and more efficient; people gained new impressions and learned new things. Sweden became smaller. Today we travel on the Internet by gathering information simply and efficiently from all over the world, largely for the price of a local telephone call. Millions of people in all parts of the world are indeed using this facility and in that sense the world has now become smaller.

Improvement in opportunities for change but … A similar gloss can be applied to the realignment of economic policy from the second half of the 1980s to the middle of the 1990s. There have been a number of reforms aimed at creating stability and opportunities. The credit and currency markets have been deregulated, components of the social security system have been reformed, a tax reform has been implemented, targets have been established for government finances, price stability is enshrined in law and the Riksbank has been given an independent status. All this represents good possibilities of the Swedish economy facing a stable future as we step over the threshold to a new millennium. The question is, however, whether the new information technology will be implemented in the far-reaching ways that are necessary in order to reap the really large benefits. Let us look at another period in Sweden’s economic history when things did not go quite as well. After World War II, when activity in the industrialised countries recovered and competition grew, partly because trade barriers were lowered, it became necessary to realign production in Sweden. The need for change resembled what we are beginning to discern on the horizon today. For much of this post-war period, however, wage costs rose at a rapid rate. Profitability in Swedish business was accordingly under pressure from two fronts: growing competition from the rest of the world and rising wage costs.
Employees and businesses have at times looked backwards – and may not recognise that the outlook has changed – when determining wages and conditions that influence employment and profitability. This was the case in 1974 and 1975 and again in 1986 and 1987. It was the case in 1998 and also in 2002. In each case, the result was high interest rates, stagnating production and rising unemployment. Should the recent sharp rise in employment result in unexpectedly high wage growth, the interest rate will again have to be set at a high level to keep inflation subdued. We may again experience a high interest rate level in Norway relative to other countries over a longer period. This could translate into a pronounced setback in production and employment. The Norwegian business sector has become increasingly efficient, inducing companies to increase their workforces. During the recovery after the turn of the millennium, productivity growth jumped up again. This resulted in strong growth and low inflation. Rising imports from low-cost countries and high prices for many of our export goods resulted in a substantial improvement in Norway’s terms of trade from the end of the 1990s. Norway’s situation differs from that of our neighbouring Nordic countries in that both Sweden and Finland have recorded a deterioration in their terms of trade. They sell large volumes of hightech products but at falling prices. Productivity and terms-of-trade gains have provided the Norwegian economy with a historically strong income boost.

Moreover, the absence of a social safety net in China creates a strong incentive for Chinese consumers to save rather than spend. Is the Norwegian economy also at a turning point? Household saving has also been low in Norway in recent years and corporate earnings have been offset by high investments. Excluding government financial and oil sector surpluses – which are redeployed abroad – Norway recorded a current account deficit of an estimated NOK 150 billion in 2007, or close to 10 per cent of mainland GDP. The corollary to the deficit on the basic balance is that Norwegian businesses, as well as Norwegian banks, borrow in foreign markets. It is the interaction between high household credit demand and an ample supply of credit that has resulted in low saving and large deficits. The banks now have to put more effort into procuring deposits and a little less into selling loans. Such a change in banks' behaviour may contribute to curbing growth in demand and output in the period ahead. There are now signs of a cooling housing market throughout the country. House price inflation peaked about a year ago when the housing market was marked by euphoria. Several large residential construction projects are now being shelved. Should weaker developments in the US lead to a broad-based pause in global growth, there may be various repercussions for the Norwegian economy: First, a downturn in the world economy may adversely affect activity and profitability in export industries and perhaps even the oil sector.
We definitely have a lot to learn from Malaysia in respect of product development and market operation. As I see it, Hong Kong and Malaysia each has different edges in the financial services industry, and the potential synergy between the two places in developing the Islamic financial markets is tremendous. 10. Malaysia is undoubtedly an important leading centre in the global Islamic finance industry that has accumulated vast experiences and invaluable expertise over the past three decades. It has developed a well-diversified Islamic financial market, offering a full suite of products covering sukuk, Islamic equities, Islamic funds, Islamic ETFs, etc. Its sukuk market is by far the largest in the world, accounting for more than 70% of global sukuk issuances last year.4 It has also put in place well-developed financial infrastructure which can facilitate local and overseas market players alike in conducting Islamic financial transactions. 11. On the other hand, Hong Kong as an international financial centre has developed a deep and highly liquid capital market with a diverse base of investors coming from all around the world. More importantly, with Hong Kong’s unique role as a gateway to Mainland China and a leading hub for offshore RMB business, Hong Kong can offer an ideal platform to link Islamic and RMB financing together by developing financial products that are Shariah-  4  2  Zawya. BIS central bankers’ speeches  compliant and, at the same time, denominated in RMB.

Peter Pang: Islamic capital and money markets Welcoming remarks by Mr Peter Pang, Deputy Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the workshop on “Islamic capital and money markets”, Hong Kong, 19 March 2013. *  *  *  Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, 1. It is my great pleasure to welcome you to this Islamic finance workshop. We are particularly grateful to Mr. Mohd. Radzuan, Mr. Azidy and Mr. Azahari, the experts from Malaysia, who have flown all the way to Hong Kong to share with us their knowledge on Islamic capital and money markets and their valuable experience in developing these critical components of Islamic finance. I would also like to thank Mr. Najmuddin of Bank Negara Malaysia for bringing the Malaysian delegation here. Two fast developing asset classes in the global markets 2. This workshop comes at a very opportune time as Hong Kong is looking to develop Islamic finance as a way to diversify our financial platform and further enhance our capability as an international financial centre. In my view, to be a truly international financial centre, one needs to develop a conducive platform for the two fast developing asset classes in the global markets – Islamic financial products and RMB-denominated investment assets. 3. The development of Islamic financial markets has been phenomenal in the past two decades.
Estimates by Banco de España researchers suggest that the PEPP will have had a firstorder positive impact on inflation and on the GDP growth rate in the 2020-2022 period.2 The evidence available also suggests that the TLTROs have fulfilled the function for which they were designed, as banks have used the financing received to grant loans to the real economy.3 Admittedly, it is difficult to accurately quantify the economic and financial deterioration that would have ensued had the PEPP and the rest of the measures not been launched, and therefore to estimate the resulting overall effect on euro area macroeconomic developments. But one of the main effects of the monetary policy measures, in a setting as adverse as that in place at the onset of the pandemic crisis, has been to avoid disruption on financial markets that would have ultimately given rise to a much deeper and persistent crisis. 1  For further details, see P. Hernández de Cos (2021): “The European Central Bank's monetary policy: response to the pandemic crisis and future challenges". Speech at the Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (UAM). 2  See Aguilar, P., Ó. Arce, S. Hurtado, J. Martínez-Martín, G. Nuño, and C. Thomas (2020). “The ECB monetary policy response to the COVID-19 crisis”, Occasional Paper no. 2026, Banco de España. 3  See, for example, the October 2020 Bank Lending Survey in Spain.

Against this background, we stressed last March that we would use the flexibility of our PEPP to increase purchases in the following months, with the aim of preserving favourable financing conditions and thus preventing a tightening of these conditions that is inconsistent with countering the downward impact of the crisis on the inflation path. A fourth aspect worth highlighting is that of the complementarity of the ECB’s action to that taken by the fiscal and prudential authorities. We all concur that fiscal policy should be the first line of defence against this crisis. It has the most suitable instruments for mitigating the effects of the crisis on households and firms, in particular in a setting in which these effects are proving uneven and of uncertain duration. That said, the monetary policy decisions adopted by the ECB, and especially those relating to the PEPP, are particularly significant from this perspective. Indeed, they have provided the fiscal authorities with space to extend and maintain their support measures for the economy. Hence, net asset purchases under the PEPP in 2020 have risen to an amount equivalent to over 90% of the euro area countries’ net public financing needs that same 5  year (and almost 30% of gross needs), according to preliminary estimates. This is particularly important in countries such as Spain which, as I mentioned, has been particularly affected by the COVID-19 crisis and whose initial deficit and public debt levels were high.
For clarity’s sake I should perhaps add that I am speaking in a personal capacity, not expressing an official position on behalf of the Riksbank. Some new conditions for economic policy If Sweden were to adopt the euro, responsibility for monetary policy would be transferred to the European Central Bank (ECB), which acts, not in the interest of particular countries but for what is appropriate for the euro area as a whole. Thus, Swedish economic policy would no longer have recourse to the short-term interest rate and the exchange rate. Tendencies to overheating and inflation just in Sweden could no longer be countered with the monetary alternative of raising the interest rate here, just as the interest rate could not be lowered to mitigate a marked slowdown in our economy. This is clearly a change in the conditions for economic policy that needs to be analysed and discussed in advance of a decision to adopt the euro. Having said that, the issue should not be seen too dramatically. The set-up for economic policy in a monetary union is much the same as in a country with a fixed exchange rate. In Sweden that was actually the case in 73 of the past 100 years, with results that were excellent in some periods and considerably worse in others. It is important to learn from those experiences. What distinguishes a monetary union is that the exchange rate is locked irrevocably.

At that time they considered there was a case for cutting taxes and argued on the basis of estimated resource utilisation that this was feasible without risking capacity restrictions. Our estimations suggested otherwise, though the differences should not be exaggerated. We still do not know who was right. But what we do know is that economic activity has declined far more than any of us foresaw and this has been accompanied by higher inflation. Concluding remarks Now for a brief summary of what I have said. Economic policy as a euro participant is not all that different from economic policy today. When discussing stabilisation policy it should borne in mind that the best way for us to achieve a favourable development – inside or outside the euro area – is to create conditions for a smooth adjustment to various markets, primarily the labour market, and for a good productivity trend. In these respects there are measures we ought to take in any event. But euro participation can help us to move in the right direction. By adopting the euro we would relinquish our national monetary policy. That would make the formation of fiscal policy more crucial. There are risks here, as we know from our own experience in the 1970s and ’80s, when policy was neither consistent nor focused on the long term. As a result, cyclical fluctuations were accentuated and the government finances gradually weakened. That limited the room for action when Sweden entered the 1990s.