samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This finding is consistent with our observation that wording based on “prices” causes respondents to focus more on price changes in their own consumption basket and to report expectations that are more correlated with gas and food price changes.36 Finally, we have been exploiting the rotating panel nature of the SCE to better understand the changes in medium-term consumer inflation expectations that has occurred since July 2015. As I mentioned earlier, the panel structure of the SCE enables us to analyze the changes at the individual level, that is, for the same respondent – thus abstracting from  32  This financially incentivized experiment provides a joint test of our question’s success in measuring a respondent’s inflation expectations, and of whether consumers act on their expectations according to theory. 33  Armantier et al. (forthcoming). 34  Before providing the information, we also asked respondents for their expectations about the information provided in each treatment (e.g., what they thought past food price inflation had been), in order to control for respondents’ priors about the information that they would receive. 35  See, for instance, Mankiw and Reis (2002) or Carroll (2003). 36  In our research, we have also been studying the extent to which subjective expectations in the SCE are associated with individual outcomes.

Further, when respondents are asked point forecast questions, some elect to provide a range, in order to express a degree of uncertainty in their forecast. We find that the use of ranges in point forecast questions, as well as the widths of reported ranges, are positively correlated with the number of bins to which respondents assign positive probability in density forecast questions, and with measures of uncertainty based on the fitted density estimates. Respondents also rate the density forecast questions only slightly harder to answer than the corresponding point forecast ones. Finally, respondents’ estimated forecast uncertainty is meaningfully associated with month-to-month revisions in inflation expectations: greater uncertainty is significantly correlated with larger revisions – qualitatively consistent with Bayesian updating. What is the best way to aggregate the information we elicit regarding probabilistic beliefs and density forecasts? For binary outcomes, such as the perceived percent chance of losing one’s job over the next three months, we report the mean probability across respondents. For density forecasts, we can compute several aggregate measures. Slide 4 shows a stylized depiction of how we approach this. As our aggregate measure of expected inflation, we report the median of individual density means. We pick the density mean, which represents an individual’s expectation for the rate of inflation, as our measure of central tendency, and use the median to aggregate across respondents, since the median is less sensitive to outliers.
The Bank set out some ideas on the design of such an open platform for SMEs last year.9  Data collection is also integral to the work that the Bank itself does in pursuit of its wider mission. Without the data we collect, we cannot identify risks, design good policy, and take action in a timely and targeted fashion. That’s why delivering ‘common data standards’, rules and methods that consistently label and describe financial data, are a priority long term reform for us. Reflecting that priority the Bank are setting up a joint transformation programme with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and industry. And Sam Woods, the Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation, and Nikhil Rathi, CEO of the FCA, recently published a letter to firms providing an update on this work, and asking firms to work with us in partnership to deliver common data standards and other crucial reforms. 10  AI and AIPPF  Yet another rapidly-developing area is the adoption of AI in finance. We know that finance is one of the sectors that has seen widespread adoption of AI in recent years.11 COVID-19 has accelerated this trend. Half of the banks we surveyed reported an increase in the importance of AI as a result of the pandemic. 12 The adoption of AI is already bearing fruit in a number of areas within the financial sector with a very wide range of use cases.

The minutes from each of the quarterly AIPPF meetings are publically available and the AIPPF will produce a final report upon its conclusion later this year. As we, and industry, learn more from this soft support around AI, it may be that harder forms of public infrastructure will be needed, provided either by the Bank, another authority or as a collaboration between different authorities. Those decisions will be taken at the appropriate time. If that means that the Bank’s direct involvement in these areas passes over to another institution, then that’s fine: we will have played our role at the right time. PRA regulation on outsourcing and third-party risk management  A further business model-related change we need to think carefully about as digital finance becomes more prevalent is the relationships between financial firms and the technology companies that deliver their business services. That is particularly the case where those services are critically important to firms’ operational resilience or where they are involved in processing of confidential or sensitive firm data. 13  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/minutes/2020/artificial-intelligence-public-private-forum-minutes 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  5  Reflecting this the PRA has updated its regulation on outsourcing and third-party risk management to complement and strengthen its new policy framework on operational resilience. 14 And we plan to analyse further whether we need even stronger tools to manage the risk that critical third parties, including potentially cloud and other major technology providers, may pose to the Bank’s and PRA’s objectives.
Consequently, the SNB is present in the foreign exchange market at all times and is always prepared to purchase unlimited quantities of euros at CHF 1.20 per euro, in order to enforce the minimum exchange rate. When trading took place at less than CHF 1.20 per euro, it was only for a few seconds and resulted from market idiosyncrasies. Since 6 September, the best rate in the market for the sale of euros against Swiss francs has never fallen below CHF 1.20. The SNB was thus able to successfully enforce the minimum exchange rate even under extremely difficult conditions. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  These considerations clearly show that the introduction of a minimum exchange rate is associated with risks. Under certain circumstances, implementing such a rate can lead to a very considerable expansion of foreign currency reserves. The SNB is prepared to bear the risk. Indeed, in summer 2011, the situation had become so acute that, by early September, the SNB felt that there was no longer any alternative to introducing a minimum exchange rate. Doing nothing would have had an extremely negative impact on our economy. Even at a rate of CHF 1.20 per euro, the Swiss franc remains overvalued. We are acutely aware that considerable challenges still remain for the Swiss economy, despite the minimum exchange rate. One particular reason for this is the fact that the international economy is recovering at only a moderate pace. In addition, there is a very high level of uncertainty in the international environment.

-  After this first contact, and once the Fintechs had started the actual  authorisation or registration process, the average time taken to ensure their applications were complete and decide on their legal classification was in line with the Charter – two to three weeks depending on the legal status – although  Page 3 of 5 for a third of cases it took longer; this was notably due to the sharp rise in applications (up 20% on last year). -  Once an application had been submitted, the deadline for examining it  was met in 84% of cases, with the average time standing at 12 days – less than the average of 17 days it took for applicants to respond! We are therefore well on the way to meeting the ambitious target deadlines set out in the Fintech Charter. This allows us to respond to the first criticism levelled against us: the lack of visibility over the application procedure and the amount of time they take. We shall continue our efforts to ensure we gradually get closer to our target deadlines, and not just in average terms (we have already met it this year), but for all individual cases. II. In France and Europe, we need to keep pace with the digital transformations under way Our attention is focused in particular on another aspect of the digital evolution: crypto-assets.
Next, MAS and the InfoComm Media Development Authority (IMDA) are working together to create a cross-border innovation platform for SMEs called Business sans Borders. 8/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  Business sans Borders will do two things: It will enable SMEs to connect in a global services marketplace, where they can explore synergies in digitalising their business processes and mutualise costs. It will allow solution providers to more effectively reach out to SMEs who tend to be highly dispersed and are sometimes hard to reach. Business sans Borders will begin with a proof-of-concept next year, with three features: first, a sandbox where start-ups and established players come together to experiment and build relevant solutions; second, an “app store” where SMEs can access a wide range of services, from finance and logistics to human resources; and third, an AI engine to match SME suppliers with buyers for products and services, across ASEAN and beyond. Conclusion Let me end where I began. FinTech is not just about technology – though technology is very important in all that we do and will help to solve many real problems. FinTech is not just about finance – though we want to create a world where financial services are built around us, and we want empower hundreds of millions of people to participate in the modern economy. FinTech is about what Saqid Shaikh reminded us of earlier today – a spirit of enterprise that is infused with empathy and lifts us to be better people.

The first half of the nineties experienced a major transformation in the design of large-value payment systems with the widespread introduction of real-time gross settlement (RTGS) systems. In a second step, further advances in information technologies have made possible new designs like the so called “hybrid systems”, i.e. systems that settle in real-time but, at the same time, minimise liquidity needs thanks to highly sophisticated optimisation mechanisms. In short, advances in information technology allowed large-value payment systems to settle faster, with a lower amount of liquidity and at a lower cost. On the retail payments side, technological progress should also allow safety and efficiency gains beyond those which have resulted, for instance, from the implementation of cheque truncation or those that are expected from introduction of the EMV (Europay Mastercard Visa) technology for card payments. Innovation has definitely an important role to play in order to keep the SEPA project futureoriented and promote the use of new delivery channels for retail payments like the internet and mobile devices, or new types of services like electronic invoicing. However, this flow of innovations come together with the entry in the payments market of new actors which do not always offer the same level of security as the traditional suppliers of those services, namely credit institutions. There is obviously a trade-off between, on the one hand, encouraging innovation by facilitating access to the payments market and, on the other hand, ensuring the safety of payments provided by setting prudential requirements on their suppliers.
The imperative here is to improve on policy and regulation design that can help deal with market excesses. Building on the spirit of entrepreneurship, the real sector must work continuously to improve its competitiveness by strengthening productivity. A sustained rise in wages and living standards cannot take place without productivity growth. And adaptability to the shifting winds of global competition cannot happen without the ability to adopt the best technology and the ability to use that technology efficiently. To this end, the best competition policy for Thailand is policy to encourage competition. Encouraging competition means open markets. Open markets give firms the means and the incentive to invest, innovate and learn to be the best. As regards the financial sector, Thailand not only requires stronger financial intermediaries but also market players of different views and risk appetites to ensure that the markets and financial system will undergo constant self-correction. Access to deeper and more liquid capital markets is another crucial element of financial development going forward. At this juncture, our own financial markets may not be deep enough soon enough, but some domestic players who are ready for it should not be encumbered from having access to the world financial markets. Indeed, those who can manage the risks have benefited from liberalized inflows in the past, but the Thai economy may benefit more if its citizens can unload domestic systematic risk abroad. To this end, the Bank of Thailand has progressively pursued capital account liberalization on the outflow side.

Tarisa Watanagase: Thailand’s economic outlook and challenges under the volatile financial environment Keynote address by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the International Herald Tribune and Citigold Wealth Management Economic Forum 2007, Bangkok, 19 September 2007. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a pleasure to be here today to give a keynote address at the economic forum hosted by the International Herald Tribune and the CitiGold Wealth Management. I also like to thank the hosts for this important opportunity to share with you my perspectives on the Thai economy moving forward, especially in the global environment of greater financial volatility and uncertainties. I believe that the media, local and international, provides a very important two-way avenue for the central bank to communicate our views and the rationale underlying our policies to the public at large, and to receive feedbacks, positive as well as negative. The topic of my talk today is “Thailand’s Economic Outlook and Challenges under the Volatile Financial Environment.” I will divide my address into three parts. First, I would like to highlight the key risks stemming from the recent global developments and outlook. In this connection, I would briefly touch on the implications of the US sub-prime market on the Thai economy. Second, I like to focus on recent key economic developments in Thailand and the outlook for 2008.
Domestic demands have been helped not only by direct government spending, but also by other government schemes that injected funds directly to the grass roots. We had the Bht 74 billion village fund (approx $ 1.7 billion) whereby each village had been allocated Bht one million to on lend to village members, often under group mutual guarantees. We also had the micro loan scheme organised by the Government Savings Bank, the government owned bank, which lend directly to the poor. Ladies and gentlemen, The good news went on. Despite the strong recovery, we have been able to keep inflation under check. Headline inflation for 2002 was 0.7% and core inflation 0.4%. The adverse affect from high oil prices has not translated into much inflation. BIS Review 8/2003  1  Our currency was also quite stable. For the whole of 2002, the bath appreciated against the US dollar by less than 2%, which was quite modest compared to other Asian currencies. The international reserves level was also ample at $ 38.9 billion, allowing us to aim to pay back all the loans under the IMF program by the end of July this year. Moreover, three major credit rating agencies, S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch Ratings, all assigned better outlook to the Thai economy. Japan Credit Rating Agency did in fact upgrade Thailand’s sovereign rating from BBB to BBB+ last November. Such widespread improvement in confidence among consumers, entrepreneurs, and investors helped support both consumption and investment throughout the year.

We have also made a substantial progress in solving the non-performing loan problem. The Thai Asset Management Corporation, the central organization run by the government that took over Bht 700 billion of NPL’s from the commercial bank system has already worked through two-thirds of their portfolio. The recovery rate was 135% of the TAMC’s purchase prices, which was the banks’ written down value. This means that the TAMC should not add any further burden, both to the banks and the taxpayers. Meanwhile even though the banking system still has 15% of the NPL left on their books. However, much of this has already been fully provided for in their loan loss reserves. The banks are therefore now poised to resume lending, and the restructured debtors are once again eligible to borrow. Ladies and gentlemen, The big question is of course – is this sustainable? 2003 is fraught with so much uncertainty. The most important risk at the moment is from the external sector, namely, tension between the US and Iraq. If this conflict aggravates into a war, it may delay the global recovery process. If the situation prolongs and gravely deteriorates, there could be even greater risks posed to world demand and ultimately the demand for Thai exports and tourism. At the same time, a possible upward pressure on the price of oil could have some adverse impact on an oilimporting country like Thailand, affecting not only the cost of production but also consumer and business confidence.
The European Central Bank In this respect, judging by past experience, I am confident that if and when institutional or political changes do become necessary, the EU is and will be able to rise to this challenge. The introduction of the euro and the creation of a new institution, the ECB, which is responsible for the single monetary policy, provide clear evidence that this is already the case. Let me briefly discuss some features of the ECB, which has a clear mandate to focus on maintaining price stability in the euro area as a whole. In fact, in the euro area, monetary policy cannot be tailored to the specific needs of a country or region. The single monetary policy is governed by the decision-making bodies of the ECB. These are the Governing Council and the Executive Board. They may be considered broadly comparable with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Like the FOMC, the Governing Council of the ECB is responsible for taking key monetary policy decisions, including the setting of official interest rates. Whereas the FOMC is composed of the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and four Reserve Bank presidents, the Governing Council is composed of the members of the Executive Board of the ECB and the Governors of the national central banks of the euro area. The Governors naturally bring with them their own country-specific expertise and experience.

While important reforms have been introduced in a number of euro area countries, all in all there is still a long way to go in this respect. This emerges quite clearly from a comparison of the costs and procedures associated with the creation of new businesses, to mention just one example. There is a wide diversity in regulatory arrangements across countries and sectors in the euro area. This diversity emerges quite clearly when looking at product markets. Whereas the integration of goods markets is relatively advanced, major shortcomings exist with regard to the full integration of service industries. Most of the barriers to trade in services appear to be due to national regulations, for example administrative procedures for setting up subsidiaries in other euro area countries. Regulatory barriers along these lines reduce competition in services, thus keeping the respective prices above the level that would be expected in a fully integrated market. Much of the recent discussion on structural reforms in product markets has focused on regulatory reform in network industries, in particular telecommunications, electricity and gas. Following a number of important reforms in the 1990s, market opening in the telecommunications market has made considerable progress, while reforms in other network industries have generally remained more limited. The initiatives in the telecommunications sector show how reforms that succeed in increasing competition in previously sheltered sectors, considerably enhance productivity, lower relative prices and lead to new and better products, thereby increasing consumer welfare and job opportunities.
So BIS Review 29/1998 ˝  -2-  that although we know that in principle at the macro-economic level free trade and competition are a powerful positive sum game - and although we have seen it clearly enough in practice - there are always likely to be visible - and vocal - losers. And that is bound to provoke outbursts of popular resistance. Against that background establishing and maintaining free trade to the extent that that has been achieved in the EU is in itself a remarkable achievement. But the EU has already in many areas gone well beyond just free trade, in establishing the single market. That involves more than the free movement of goods and services within Europe. It involves also the free movement of both labour and capital, as well as supporting European legislation to avoid market distortions from, for example, state aids, or government procurement, or restrictive practices within the private sector. This further pooling of sovereignty has essentially the same purpose - it is designed to reinforce the macro-economic benefits from free trade and competition and act as a stimulus to growth and employment by allocating resources still more effectively based on comparative advantage, enabling savings to flow to where they can be most productively invested and production to be located where it can be most effectively carried on to satisfy consumer demand. The advent of the euro represents a massive new step in the same direction.

However, Romania had to choose between adjusting its external deficit by its own means or take foreign borrowings under unacceptable conditions. Romania adopted the former solution and subsequently signed an agreement with the IMF. Nevertheless, Standard&Poor’s, which had promptly downgraded Romania’s rating to one notch above a level which would have indicated external debt payment default – which had not occurred in the case of Romania – maintained this low rating for a long time, even after the crisis had been overcome band the country’s reserves had resumed growth. I reminisced this event that occurred ten years ago as I have been experiencing a particularly strong déjà-vu feeling during recent months. First came the bleak assessments of some foreign analysts, followed by the failed speculative attack against the RON. The next stage of the game was the downgrading of the sovereign rating to below investment grade, Romania being the only EU Member State in such a situation. Yesterday, I read another comment anticipating neither more nor less that Romania and Bulgaria risk a default on sovereign foreign debt payments even though most of the foreign debt stock is private.