samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
29 Requirements in terms of liquidity may differ across the national central banks of the Eurosystem. 30 See, for example, Matikainen, S., E. Campiglio and D. Zenghelis (2017), “The climate impact of quantitative  easing”, Policy Paper, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science. 31 For details of the corporate sector purchase programme, see ECB (2017), “The ECB’s corporate sector  purchase programme: its implementation and impact”, Economic Bulletin, Issue 4, p. 40–45. 32 See ECB (2018), “Purchases of green bonds under the Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme”, Economic  Bulletin, Issue 7. 9/9  BIS central bankers' speeches

The difference between the two lies in the fact that a household, firm, national treasury, or nation is facing a debt sustainability problem if cannot service its debt with the available revenue surplus no matter how long the debt is stretched out. Then debt relative to income rises without limits. In that case, there are only three solutions: increased revenue surpluses, reduction of debt, or reduction of interest rates. On the other hand, a payment and refinancing problem exists when a longer loan duration would eliminate temporary debt service shortfalls. But two provisos must be made here. First of all, the boundaries between the two are not always clear. Unlimited loan durations are not available. A sustained refinancing problem can lead to a default and a debt sustainability problem. It can also change into a debt sustainability problem if interest rates rise steeply upon refinancing. Second of all, a nation’s debt is different in nature than the debt of an individual. A nation consists of numerous legal entities, and if some of them cannot handle their debt, it need not have severe consequences for other parts of the whole, provided that the sovereign is not involved. Under a flexible exchange rate regime, national debt service in excess of surpluses will also cause the currency to depreciate and the surplus to grow. But this process is not without limits.
Mr. George gives an assessment of where the UK economy has come from and where it is headed Speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mr. E.A.J. George, given at the Institute of Directors Annual Dinner in London on 19/11/98. My Lord and President, Deputy Lord Mayor, Your Excellency, My Lords, Ladies and Gentlemen. Let me put some of the recent newspaper headlines alongside the facts, in order to put things in perspective. First, on the world economy, the headlines read: • • •  Meltdown warning in the wake of economic slowdown. G7 nations try to halt slide to depression. Last ditch bid to avert global crisis. And these are just the supposedly serious newspapers! The facts are that world output growth is expected by the IMF to be 2% this year and 21/2% next - compared with 4% in 1997. And the OECD expects growth in the OECD area of 21/4% this year, 13/4% in 1999, recovering to 21/4% in the year 2000 - compared with 3% in 1997. That certainly is a very marked slowdown, but it is hardly meltdown or recession. And on our own economy - the headlines read: • •  Recession looms. The economy is hurtling headlong towards recession. And even: •  It’s official - the economy is shrinking.

In the light of higher price and cost inflation in Norway than in other countries, it has been appropriate to maintain higher interest rates in Norway than in most comparable countries. Norges Bank increased the sight deposit rate - which is our key rate - by a total of 1½ percentage points last year. So far this year, the key rate has remained  1  2  The relationship between wage growth and price inflation was also discussed in the Annual Address in February this year. BIS Review 72/2001  unchanged. As a result, the difference between short-term rates in Norway and other countries has increased. The economic outlook The Bank last analysed the outlook for the Norwegian economy in the June 2001 Inflation Report. Price inflation is projected to fall to 2½ per cent by next year already. The risk picture is mixed. The Norwegian economy is still characterised by high capacity utilisation. The labour market is tight. There is a risk that domestic pressures may gradually translate into a stronger price impetus than we have projected. The consumer price index has risen by 2.7 per cent since July 2000. The consumer price index excluding the direct effects of changes in excise duties and energy prices (CPIXE) has risen by 2.6 per cent since July last year, as calculated by Norges Bank. Statistics Norway publishes a consumer price index excluding electricity prices and a consumer price index excluding energy prices. They have a broader definition of energy prices than we use in our calculations.
Rodrigo Vergara: Chile – economic outlook Speech by Mr Rodrigo Vergara, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, at seminars held during the Annual Meeting of the Inter American Development Bank, Montevideo, Uruguay, 12 March 2012. *  *  *  I thank Luis Oscar Herrera, Enrique Orellana and Tatiana Vargas for helpful comments. I would like to thank you for inviting me to present our views on Chile’s economic situation at this Conference. These last years have been particularly challenging for policymakers worldwide. Periodically we must make decisions in an uncertain environment, weighing the costs and risks of alternative scenarios. For this reason, we welcome opportunities for meetings and discussions such as this, as they allow us to communicate our views in greater detail, as well as to hear other opinions. A better understanding of our decisions strengthens the effectiveness of our policies. More than four years have elapsed since the onset of the financial crisis that triggered the Great Recession. Nonetheless, we are still handling its legacy, experiencing periodic episodes of financial stress that will likely continue for some time. The situation in the Eurozone is complex, due to the interaction among fiscal, financial and macroeconomic vulnerabilities. From a historical viewpoint, growth perspectives for developed countries are weak. The outlook for emerging economies is noticeably better, although we are witnessing a slowdown whose pace is difficult to assess, particularly for China.

The objective is  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  clear, but the difficulties we face are in its implementation, with the caution demanded by the complex macroeconomic environment. Thank you. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches
The reason was that a countercyclical policy implied a depreciation of the exchange rate, which was perceived as destabilizing. In effect, if liabilities are denominated in a foreign currency due to some ex-ante inflexibility in the exchange rate, and if the exchange rate pass-through is high due to poor credibility of monetary policy, a depreciation of the exchange rate increases inflation and reduces output. How vulnerable the economy is (in terms of a currency mismatches and exchange rate pass-through in this example) will make a big difference in terms of the policy response. In a similar vein, ex-ante financial stability is crucial to reduce the vulnerability of the economy to shocks. It will be also crucial in reducing financial fragility. Final remarks The world economy enjoyed a prolonged period of stability – with significant associated benefits – until the global financial crisis erupted. While it lasted, growth was high and stable, and inflation was low. However, this period of stability also encouraged financial markets to engage in an excessive search for yield without proper risk management. Such periods, where the job of monetary policy becomes easier, pose an important challenge to policymakers, regulators and the private sector to carefully monitor the build up of financial vulnerabilities. In emerging markets we have lived through periods of bonanza that have led to severe imbalances that eventually culminated in costly crises and economic adjustment. Now it was the turn of industrial countries.

A proverb says: “No matter how long the journey is, one has to take the first step to start off.” This philosophy was made concrete through this twinning project, which along with the assistance in the afore-mentioned areas, was also the first step on the path of our institution to EU standards, as one of the priorities of the Stabilization and Association Agreement. I would like to extend my sincere thanks to the Banca d’Italia and the Banque de France for the outstanding cooperation we have had during the project implementation. I commend the efforts of both honoured institutions and hope that the successful implementation of this project will provide us with an example to involve more in such initiatives in the future. Also, I want to extend my thanks to the Delegation of the European Union for its ongoing assistance and prudence throughout the project performance. I am deeply confident that these are only the first steps towards a close cooperation. I would like to conclude by bringing to your attention a statement of Mr. Shimon Peres, who, listening to his advisor, Agassi, who was speaking about developing alternative oil sources in the absence of oil, interrupted him by saying: Nice speech, but what are we going to do? In light of this, we should think about what to do in the future. I think that the political coverage of this approximation process is important, with which I mean Brussels’ probable acceptance of Albania’s application for membership in September.
One possible explanation is that, in an economy based heavily on the production of services, firms have been putting their teams to work on marketing and sales to drum up business against a backdrop of weak overall demand. Those teams may well be working hard. In that case, it may not feel to managers, when filling in surveys, as if they have lots of spare capacity, But, as I have described it, those staff would be working on inputs rather than outputs – making productivity across the economy as a whole look weak. Nor does labour hoarding square obviously with relatively healthy growth in private sector employment over 2010 and the first half of 2011, before the recent slowing. In our internal debates, I have posited that this could be a symptom of the economy’s necessary rebalancing. Firms facing expanding markets and demand may be hiring. Whereas, against a backdrop of a very low policy rate and some forbearance by banks, individual firms in contracting sectors could be holding out, either not recognising that their market is contracting or believing and hoping that it will be their competitors rather than themselves that end up cutting capacity or closing. It can be argued against that that rising employment, and weakness in productivity, is spread fairly evenly across the private sector. But I suspect that we have to dive down into the data to get a more disaggregated picture than we, as macroeconomic policymakers, usually need.

But growth has a price. This is particularly reflected in increased emissions of greenhouse gases as a result of increased human activity. It is still uncertain how serious the impact of gas emissions will be. But once the impact comes into full evidence, it may be too late to take corrective action. There is also the risk that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reaches such a high level that it exceeds critical values that cannot be reversed. We are very pleased to have Dr John Llewellyn, Senior Economic Policy Advisor at Lehman Brothers, here today to enlighten us on how globalisation affects the environment. Changes  BIS Review 27/2008  1  in our environment affect the way we are able to interact: it is important to combine knowledge about nature with knowledge about the functioning of the economy. The last decade or so, we have witnessed increased financial integration and competition across national borders. This is a positive development. Deeper and more mature markets tend to be better equipped to deal with uncertainty and distress. But increased financial integration also raises the potential for more widespread contagion if something goes wrong, as witnessed by the current financial turmoil. Professor Philip Lane, Director of the Institute for International Integration studies at Trinity College Dublin, is one of the foremost experts on financial globalisation, and we are very much looking forward to hearing what he has to say on this subject.
Now is the time to build on these foundations and further strengthen them, with a renewed commitment and focus on increasing the utility and impact of insurance. In a journey of many twists and turns, the IAIS has been incredibly fortunate to have Secretary General Yoshihiro Kawai at its helm, leading the IAIS through a large part of the journey, 14 years in total. While the road ahead remains challenging, I am confident that under the able leadership of Secretary General-designate Jonathan Dixon who succeeds him, the IAIS will no doubt continue to strengthen its important role in building stronger insurance systems that work for all. On that note, allow me once again to warmly welcome you to Malaysia, and to an engaging and productive conference ahead. Thank you. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches

It is my pleasure to welcome you to this year's dialogue session between Bank Negara Malaysia and the insurance and takaful industries to discuss the challenges and opportunities the changing environment presents. A year ago, the focus of the discussions was on the strategic issues facing the industry as we transitioned towards a more competitive market environment. The emphasis was on the expectations on the industry to deliver a fair proposition to consumers, its relevance in the changing environment and its readiness in terms of capacity, and to support and sustain a successful strategy for growth. While the theme for this dialogue is to focus on how the industry should position itself to meet the new challenges, it will specifically address the transition towards a risk-based and a more self-regulated market conduct regime, and the development of a dual financial system for the insurance and takaful industry. This year, the dialogue has been jointly organised by the industry with the Bank. The industry's active involvement will be important in making this important event a success. This dialogue will provide an opportunity for deliberations on the strategic issues confronting the industry in the changing environment from the different perspectives between the industry and Bank Negara Malaysia . At this juncture, let me take this opportunity to share with you some of the recent economic and financial developments and the major policy initiatives by Bank Negara Malaysia .
We now have a much better sense of why: closely inter-connected global markets, once disrupted by deep uncertainty, can cause contagious collapses in confidence, output and asset prices as participants take precautionary action through fight or flight.26 This is the economics of infectious diseases. The stronger the connections, and the greater the uncertainty about them, the larger the potential scale of the epidemic. A version of this contagion problem may be operating now. The network is the world trading system and global supply chains rather than global interbank and security markets. And the uncertainty surrounds import tariffs rather than sub-prime defaults. But the same precautionary responses, whether fight or flight, appears to be in play, causing out-sized responses in asset prices and activity. 25 26  Carney (2019). Haldane and May (2011), Allen and Gale (2000) and Watts (2002). 25  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  25  Chart 28 plots the global trade network on two dates – 1980 and 2018. The wiring of the global trading system has become conspicuously more dense over that period, with the ratio of trade to GDP increasing by 50%. This increased connectivity in the world trading system has generated huge benefits. But that same connectivity has also increased the system’s potential to transmit recent fear and loathing, as uncertainties have clouded its future. Chart 28: Global trade network in 1980 and 2018 1980  2018  Sources: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics and Bank of England calculations.

15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  15  At the time of the global financial crisis, then, workers and their employers were faced with a stark outcome of job insecurity (jumping off the ladder) or income insecurity (stepping down the ladder). Unlike in previous recessions, most chose the latter path. The result was lower-than-expected unemployment, but weaker pay and productivity growth. Charts 17a and 17b: Proportion of workers facing nominal pay freezes or cuts Job stayers  Job switchers Per cent  Per cent  40  40  35  1990  1994  1998  2002  2006  2010  Cut  Freeze  2014  35  30  30  25  25  20  20  15  15  10  10  5  5  0 2018  0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Cut  Freeze  Sources: ONS ASHE and Bank of England calculations. Notes: Chart shows percentage of workers either in current job or moving job who faced nominal pay cuts or freezes in a given year. Chart 18: Wage growth for job movers Per cent  12 10 8 6 4 2 0  1998  2001  2004  2007  2010  2013  2016  Sources: ONS ASHE and Bank of England calculations. Notes: Median hourly pay.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: New opportunities for growth and development in Islamic financial markets Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the official ceremony for the completion of the Share Subscription Agreement between BIMB Holdings Berhad, Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad, Dubai Financial LLC & Lembaga Tabung Haji, Kuala Lumpur, 16 October 2006. *  *  *  This occasion marks the successful completion of the share subscription agreement between BIMB Holdings Berhad, Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad, Dubai Financial Limited Liability Company (LLC) and Lembaga Tabung Haji. It also sets a new chapter in Bank Islam's drive to chart its future direction in meeting new challenges and in exploiting the new opportunities for growth and development in the Islamic financial markets, both in the domestic and global market place. The participation of such key foreign and local institutions in the new share issuance by Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad signifies an important turning point in the history of Bank Islam which has been the pioneer Islamic bank in Malaysia. The partnership between BIMB Holdings Berhad, Dubai Financial LLC and Lembaga Tabung Haji is significant in several important ways. Firstly, it reflects the confidence and trust that international and domestic investors have in the investment and business climate in Malaysia, and in the Malaysian Islamic financial sector in particular.

Indeed, the bank can gainfully advance to venture abroad to explore new business opportunities in the regional markets. The growth prospects will also be further strengthened by the overall performance of the industry and the sound and mutually reinforcing inter-linkages of the various market components in the Islamic financial system. In closing, I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate BIMB Holdings Berhad, Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad, Dubai Financial LLC and Lembaga Tabung Haji for their contributions in the successful completion of the share subscription agreement for Bank Islam. I wish Bank Islam and its shareholders every success in taking the Bank to greater heights in its future endeavours. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 99/2006
So, to the extent that we become more confident, if we become more confident about the economic outlook, that the recovery will be sustained, then I think that for me – speaking for myself, and only myself – that might make me a little bit more comfortable to proceed with balance sheet normalization a little bit more quickly. I think the important thing here is that when balance sheet normalization occurs and we start to end the reinvestment, don’t think of it as an active tool of policy. Think of it as a passive tool, number one. And number two, to the extent that we then do decide at some point in the future to taper or end the reinvestment, that will also be a way of removing accommodation. And so that would be a bit of a substitute for raising short-term interest rates. So, I would guess, my own personal view, is if we move to balance sheet normalization, that might actually stretch out the process of raising short-term interest rates a little bit because the two are substitutes for one another in terms of removing monetary policy accommodation. The Chair said in her testimony that this is something we’re going to be looking at over the coming meetings.

Norges Bank is among the top ten shareholders at around half of the companies we are invested in, and we have found that companies listen to what we have to 2/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  say. Responsible investment – a chain of tools Chart: Responsible investment – a chain of tools Responsible investment is the most important tool in our work on climate risk and climate-related investment opportunities. I will now look at some important parts of this work. We are already doing a great deal, but we now plan to do even more. This work can be divided into three target areas: markets, companies and the portfolio. This results in a complete chain of tools. I will not review this work in detail here, but focus on a few key aspects. Establishing standards The first, establishing standards, concerns standards for reporting and measuring companies’ climate risk. Good common standards are important. They help us as an investment manager to assess companies’ prospects, prioritise our ownership efforts and make sound investment decisions. And not just us. Better reporting will also make financial markets function better and channel capital better. International standards provide consistency across markets and set the bar for all companies. We, and other large investors, have an important part to play in the development of such standards. One particularly important initiative we have supported is the climate reporting framework from the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD).