samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In this case, the gradualness of the residential investment slowdown was made possible by the support provided by strong housing demand, against a backdrop of high demographic momentum in the Spanish economy in recent years. The lower contribution to growth of these two domestic expenditure components was offset, first, by the continued buoyancy of productive investment of firms, in a situation of high profitability and favourable business expectations due to the continued momentum of domestic demand and, above all, to the surge in the world economy. In particular, capital goods investment in 2006 grew by more than 10% and in recent quarters its rate of expansion has been around 13%. Furthermore, net external demand has helped to mitigate the impact of the slowdown in household spending on growth, thanks to the notable recovery of exports in 2006 and to the moderation in imports in the first half of this year. The most probable scenario for the coming months is the continued gradual moderation of domestic demand and of output growth. In fact, there were signs in 2007 Q2 that might suggest a gradual change to a more subdued growth path, although GDP growth was only 10 bp less than in the first quarter of the year. The information (still very partial and fragmentary) of certain economic indicators relating to 2007 Q3 also points in this direction.

Using as a starting point the observed heterogeneity and by analysing the experiences of several countries, we can draw certain broad conclusions on the effectiveness of the macroprudential toolbox. The design of Borrower and Capital Based Measures is a decision of authorities. For example, based on information from the ESRB, Belgium introduced a Loan-to-Value on both owner-occupied and buy-to-let properties. Cyprus, in order to deal with a specific sectoral exposure, further to the Loan-to-Value cap, recently introduced an even stricter Loan-to-Value for luxurious properties. However, by observing the real estate cycles registered in a number of countries, it is evident that even the idiosyncratic design of these measures does not always stop real estate cycles from materialising. The Netherlands and Slovenia are examples of countries that have recorded vulnerabilities despite the implementation of such measures. Analysis performed at the Central Bank of Cyprus verifies this observation. Using an econometric model, we explain the growth rates of housing loans and house prices considering the implementation of macroprudential measures2. 1/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  The analysis indicates that the Loan-to-Value ratio seems to be effective in containing housing loans, for 10 out of 12 countries in our sample and effective in containing house prices in only in 3 out of the 12 cases. Income based measures (such as DebtService-to-Income) and Capital Based Measures were found to be effective in around half of the countries that use them. We can therefore conclude, that there is no "one-size-fits-all" type of macroprudential tool.
 Third, we will have to look more closely at the economic activity and the cycle. In this tightening phase, unlike the phase of normalisation, the assessment of the state of the economy and projections for growth and employment will play a greater role. In case of a recession – even if it should be limited and temporary 8  Page 9 sur 14  -, we would be certain to face calls to stop the tightening. This would miss the point: to bring inflation back to target, a recession is neither necessary nor sufficient per se. A more relevant discussion will be the assessment of the slope of the Phillips curves. The current and rapid increase in core inflation has led some observers to suggest that the flat Phillips curve paradigm of past decades is now obsoletev. What is more likely is that price-setting in the economy is state dependent, with firms reacting by more and quicker to large shocks so that the Phillips curve is non-linear and convex. In any case, we cannot bet that a steeper Phillips curve will entirely do the job, allowing for a fairly “immaculate” disinflation.  Last but not least, we will need a benchmark to measure the degree of tightening. The real interest rate calculated with actual headline inflation would provide misleading signals. A better gauge is provided by medium-term forward real interest rates: they should be at least positive on all but the shortest maturities.

[7] 75% of people in 16 major countries expect their government to make environmental protection a priority when planning the postCOVID-19 recovery. See Ipsos  press release (published on 5 June 2020) about the results of a survey conducted between 21 and 24 May 2020 on the Global Advisor online platform. [8] Giuzio, M. et al. (2019), “Climate change and financial stability”, Financial Stability Review, ECB, May. [9] European Commission (2020), “  Identifying Europe's recovery needs”, Commission Staff Working Document, 27 May. [10] Through our ECB Listens portal, we are inviting euro area citizens, organisations and relevant stakeholders to contribute ideas and comments on the way we conduct monetary policy. European Central Bank Directorate General Communications Sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Tel. : +49 69 1344 7455, email: media@ecb.europa.eu Website: www.ecb.europa.eu Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. Media contacts  Copyright 2020, European Central Bank
7 The gap in manufacturing is around 50%. 8 UK estimates of firm-level productivity dispersion are based on Bank of England analysis of ONS data, whereas non-UK estimates of productivity dispersion are provided by the OECD. Differences in underlying data used may therefore play a role in Charts 5 and 6. 3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  3  low road. Capitalism always of course throws up winners and losers, hares and tortoises, gazelles and snails, upper and lower tails. In the UK, however, these differences are far-larger, and have increased by more, than elsewhere. And therein, I would argue, lie the roots of the UK’s productivity gaps. Let me start with the good news, focussing on companies on the high road. The first and most important point to make is that the UK does not lack for innovative, high-productivity companies. If you tour the UK, as I do, you find these “frontier” companies in every region and every sector. Their productivity is world-leading, their technology world-beating, their managers and workers world-renowned. They are inspirational. Micro-analysis of UK companies confirms this anecdotal impression. Chart 7 plots the distribution of UK 9  relative to French and German companies. There are more UK companies in the upper tail than in Germany, with its much-vaunted industrial reputation, and France. The top 10% of UK companies have levels of productivity at least 100% above the median.

There are clearly identified upper-tail companies, who are fast adopters of new technologies which then appear to spread quickly and widely across the firm. Adoption of innovation is rapid and diffusion widespread. This helps explain why these companies are on the productivity high road. But there are many more companies where, by contrast, technological adoption has been slow or nonexistent. Even when adopted, technologies have tended not to have been quickly or extensively employed. For this lower tail, neither innovation nor diffusion has been rapid or widespread. This, in turn, probably helps explain why these companies’ productivity performance has been stuck on the low road. (c)  Human Capital  One of the key mechanisms through which ideas and innovations are diffused across countries and companies is, unsurprisingly, through people. As workers transition between companies, their expertise and experience is transferred within them. Empirical evidence from a range of countries confirms the importance of human capital as a transmission and diffusion channel. 36  Can these human capital channels help explain the UK’s productivity gaps? One aspect studied in some depth is management skills. A survey by Nick Bloom and John van Reenen found that UK companies had management skills around half a standard deviation lower than competitor countries, such as the US. These management skills-scores have a statistically-significant link with levels of company productivity. 37  The UK also exhibits a greater degree of dispersion in management skills than competitor countries.
Payments: A platform for innovation Speech given by Victoria Cleland, Executive Director; Banking, Payments & Innovation  SIBOS, London Tuesday 24 September 2019  With thanks to Sara Ward and Emma Playford. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  It is a great pleasure to be speaking today at the ‘UK payments infrastructure – renewing for growth’ event at Sibos. This year’s event is exciting for two reasons. First, it’s National Inclusion week here in the U.K.1 And, it’s a great coincidence that SIBOS has fallen during this week: at the heart of its agenda are discussions around how change and diversification in payments could lead to a more inclusive financial system. Second, this is the first Sibos conference to be held in London – and it is certainly an exciting time for so many global payments experts and innovators to be here. London has a long history at the heart of the global financial system. It continues to build on this expertise and is one of the leading fintech hubs in the world. It is home to an incredible pool of the world’s best and brightest talent, with 44,000 people already working in fintech, more than in Silicon Valley or New York.2 Investment into the UK’s fintech sector continues to grow and reached a record level of $ in the first half of 2019, which was nearly 85% of the 2018 total.3 And we can see that the UK fintech sector is maturing, evidenced by the size of increased investments.

Mortgage bonds that were difficult to sell could be converted into a liquid asset, which meant that the measure simultaneously helped the situation on the mortgage bond market. About the same time, the Riksbank also made it easier for banks to borrow from the Bank by accepting additional types of securities as loan collateral. Covered mortgage bonds issued by an institution with close links to the counterparty could now be used as collateral to a greater extent than in the past. This measure is also helping the situation for mortgage bonds. … a shortage of dollars the second The next problem to address was a general shortage of financing opportunities in US dollars. Since the Swedish banks are not counterparties to the US Federal Reserve (Fed), they cannot be sure of benefitting from the Fed's liquidity injections. In late September, mutual currency arrangements with the Fed were established by the Riksbank and several other central banks. With these swap facilities the Riksbank can borrow US dollars against Swedish kronor. The Riksbank then offered its counterparties large loans denominated in US dollars. The loans are granted against collateral at an interest rate determined by auction, though no lower than a minimum rate related to the expected policy rate in the United States. General measures to promote liquidity Since the beginning of October the Riksbank has been implementing measures to support SEK liquidity, aimed at securing bank funding, facilitating the supply of credit and improving the functioning of the financial markets.
Based on our experience over this period, it is Norges Bank’s assessment that the monetary policy framework has worked well. Inflation has been predominantly low and stable since inflation targeting was introduced in 2001. Average annual consumer price inflation has been close to, albeit somewhat below, 2.5 percent. At the same time, employment has consistently been more stable since 2001 than in previous periods, in spite of the fact that the Norwegian economy has been exposed to substantial shocks. Chart: Inflation The inflation target has anchored inflation expectations. At the same time, there has been sufficient room for flexibility and the exercise of judgement to enable monetary policy to dampen the impact on output and employment when the economy has been exposed to shocks. Our experience has shown us the crucial importance of flexibility in inflation targeting to enable us to make the appropriate trade-offs in response to these shocks. The time horizon for achieving the target must be sufficiently long, and the balance of risks, including risks related to 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  financial stability, must be taken into account. We have also experienced the important role the exchange rate has played as shock absorber, particularly during the financial crisis and in periods of falling oil prices. At the same time, the interest rate level abroad places limitations on the room for manoeuvre in monetary policy in a small open economy such as Norway. Monetary policy’s main task is to provide the economy with a nominal anchor.

2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Let me read to you the relevant three paragraphs from our Approach document published in April: “For UK branches of non-EEA firms, the PRA’s authorisation applies to the whole firm. At the point at which a non-EEA branch seeks initial authorisation in the United Kingdom, the PRA, will, as a first step, form a judgement on the adequacy of the home regulator, including its ability and willingness to share confidential information. Where it considers the home supervisor not to have a regime broadly equivalent to that of the United Kingdom, the PRA will refuse authorisation of the branch. It may instead decide to authorise a stand-alone subsidiary, in which case it may limit the interlinkages with the rest of the group or ring-fence the subsidiary (for example if it considers the home supervisor not to deliver effective consolidated supervision). In assessing a non-EEA firm against the Threshold Conditions, the PRA may also have regard to the opinion of an overseas regulator in a country in which the firm carries on regulated activities. In considering how much weight to attach to such opinions, the PRA must have regard to the nature and scope of the supervision exercised by the overseas regulator.” “For existing UK branches of non-EEA firms where the home regime is not considered to be equivalent, the PRA’s supervisory work is aimed at mitigating the risks of non-equivalence in the relevant areas.
Although only a minority of households may be credit constrained they are probably sufficient  4  Young, G (1996), “The influence of financial intermediaries on the behaviour of the UK economy”, NIESR Occasional Paper No 50. 5  This is discussed in detail in the Bank’s memorandum to the House of Commons Treasury Committee’s inquiry into “The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England: ten years on”, Quarterly Bulletin, 47(1), 2007Q1, 24- 38. 6  Credit Conditions Survey, http://externalboeweb/publications/other/monetary/creditconditions.htm  BIS Review 7/2008  3  in number to depress household spending somewhat, possibly reversing a little of the decline in the saving ratio seen since the early 1990s (Chart 9). In a similar way a tightening of corporate lending conditions will affect some companies’ investment. The Deloitte CFO survey taken in early December finds that 20% of firms expect the recent credit market events to have a negative impact on their capital spending in 2008. 7 This tightening of credit conditions would be exacerbated by any further weakening in the financial position of banks due to a slowdown in the wider economy. Slower growth and a rise in unemployment in particular would lead to higher loan defaults. There are signs that this is already happening in consumer lending in the US. Weakening property prices would reduce the amount that lenders could realise in the event of default.

With pressures on their capital and new capital expensive where it is available, banks are likely to attempt to increase their margins and to slow down new lending, thereby reducing their capital requirements, for example by tightening non-price terms and conditions on new loans. One factor which regulators are watching carefully at present is the impact of the shift this month to the Basle II system of capital requirements for European banks. While Basle II improves on its predecessor and removes many undesirable incentives, it retains some procyclical features and any transition needs to be managed carefully. 8 The impact on expectations and confidence The other channel by which the financial market turbulence is likely to have macroeconomic effects is by prompting more cautious behaviour by households and firms. This might simply reflect uncertainty about the future. Firms may temporarily postpone investment because of greater uncertainty about the future path of demand. We saw an effect like this after 9/11 for example. But it might also reflect a revision by households and firms about the sustainable path of income and wealth in the coming years. The change in expectations may reflect the higher costs of borrowing and a higher risk of unemployment. Again a reduction in confidence about future growth may lead directly to lower consumption and investment. It is also likely to affect equity and property markets. Potential buyers may decide to wait before purchasing if they sense that there is a chance that prices may fall. Such behaviour can be self-fulfilling.
Sources: central bank of respective country, International Monetary Fund and Superintendence of Banks and Financial Institutions. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 13 Inflation expectations: EES and FOS (*)  Average forward breakeven inflation based on swap rates  (percent)  (moving weekly average, percent)  7  7  7  7  6  6  6  6  5  5  4  4  5  5  3  3  4  4  2  2  3  3  1  1  2  2  1  1  06  07  08  09  10  11  FOS one year ahead  FOS two years ahead  EES at Dec.11  EES one year ahead  06  07  08  1 in 1  EES two years ahead  09 3 in 2  10  11  5 en 5  (*) FOS uses survey of the first half of indicated month. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

Inflation expectations in the euro area must remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make its contribution towards supporting economic growth and job creation in the euro area. We will continue to monitor very closely all developments. The provision of liquidity and the allotment modes for refinancing operations will continue to ensure that euro area banks are not constrained on the liquidity side. All the non-standard measures taken during the period of acute financial market tensions are, by construction, temporary in nature. Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP growth decelerated to 0.2% quarter on quarter in the second quarter of 2011, after 0.8% in the first quarter. As expected, temporary factors which had boosted growth in the early part of the year ceased, and adverse effects resulted from the Japanese earthquake and the lagged impact of past oil price increases. Looking ahead, a number of developments seem to be dampening the underlying momentum in the euro area, including a moderation in the pace of global growth, related declines in equity prices and in business confidence, and unfavourable effects resulting from ongoing tensions in a number of euro area sovereign debt markets. As a consequence, real GDP growth is expected to increase very moderately in the second half of this year.
In addition, the number of persons being notified of redundancy could rise in the near future as a result of Ericsson’s cutbacks. A problem for the Swedish economy is that there will be a large increase in the percentage of very young and very old members of the population during 2003 and 2004, which limits the supply of labour. The labour supply is also affected by how the regulations on unemployment benefit, sickness insurance, etc. are formulated. The large number of employed persons who are absent from work as a result of sickness or other reasons also comprises a significant uncertainty factor. It is difficult to estimate to what extent these people could come back to work and boost production capacity. (Diagram 4 - number of employed persons, excl. sick and other absentees). The public sector is expected to provide a positive contribution to growth in employment during the entire forecast period. While employment in industry is not expected to increase until the latter part of the forecast period. During 2001 wages increased by 4.3 per cent, according to preliminary data. It is partly due to this high rate of wage increase that inflation has been above the Riksbank’s target level during 2001-2002. The wages statistics that have been received so far this year indicate a continued high rate of wage increase, or approximately 4 per cent. The design of the central wage agreements and a slightly weaker labour market situation are some important factors in subduing the rate of wage increase.

Michael Gondwe: Importance of the SME sector in Zambia Opening remarks by Dr Michael Gondwe, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the launch of the Soweto branch of Stanbic Bank Zambia Limited, New Soweto market, Soweto, Lusaka, 31 August 2012. *  *  *  •  The Standard Bank Chief Executive for Personal and Business Banking in Africa, Mr Terry Moodley;  •  The Managing Director of Stanbic Bank Zambia Limited, Mr Dennis Kennedy;  •  Distinguished Customers of Stanbic Bank Zambia Limited;  •  Management and Staff of Stanbic Bank Zambia Limited;  •  Distinguished Invited Guests;  •  Members of the Press;  •  Ladies and Gentlemen. I feel honoured and privileged to be amongst you this morning. I wish to thank the Stanbic Bank Management for extending an invitation to me to deliver a keynote address on this important occasion. Ladies and Gentlemen, I would like to begin by applauding Stanbic Bank Zambia Limited for opening the Soweto Trader Branch. I commend Stanbic Bank as I observe that the Trader Branch is specifically designed with the Small and Medium Sized Enterprise (SME) sector in mind. This branch opening fully complements the Bank of Zambia which has set Financial Inclusion as one of its key strategic objectives. It is our expectation that the opening of this branch will provide opportunities for the SMEs to access financial services which for a long time have been lacking in this sector.