samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But, I caution you, this is only the first step in your careers as Accountants. Remember, “it is not what you learned, but how you use what you learned, that counts”. I came across a definition of an Accountant the other day. It said, “an accountant is someone who solves a problem that you did not know you had, in a way that you don’t understand”! BIS Review 49/2010  1  I hope that tonight’s Graduates do not end up being one of these Accountants, who creates a problem first and then pretends to solve it. And, worse still, they end up charging the client for something that was not there in the first place! It’s almost like being a lawyer! The recent global financial crisis started from a liquidity shortfall in the United States. This liquidity shortfall resulted from many loans (especially for housing) going into default, and there were insufficient assets to cover these loans. As a result, many large banks and financial institutions went bankrupt. And, if it were not for the quick and substantial intervention by some major Governments and Central Banks, the global economy would have collapsed. Among others, the Accountants have been blamed for the “financial crisis”, as a result of their “creative accounting” techniques, which contributed to inflating the values of the assets which were used as collateral for the many risky loans that were issued.

It said “an Economist is someone who did not have enough personality to become an Accountant”. I said to myself, maybe your President thought that by being here tonight among these many distinguished accountants, I could end up having some kind of personality after all. I wish you, the new Members of the Institute, all the very best as you embark on your careers as fully fletched Accountants. Your future is how you make of it. Work hard, be honest and avoid being “overly creative” in the way you keep and look after your clients accounts. Thank you for attention. BIS Review 49/2010  5
The most serious is the inability of these models often to fit the macro-economic facts at business cycle frequencies, particularly at times of economic stress. 24 RANK models fared poorly in capturing the dynamics of the economy either side of the global financial crisis. At the very time it was most interesting and important, these models were found wanting as a guide to the fortunes of the economy and economic policy. One response has been to develop models that relax the representative agent assumption. So-called  Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) models comprise distinct agents with distinct behaviours. As importantly, these models capture interactions among agents. 25 While it is heterogeneity that is often emphasized, it is interactions between agents that is most important for replicating real-world dynamics. Consider the dynamics of two very simple systems: a single and double pendulum. The single pendulum is a representative agent model. Once disturbed, its motion is regular and its distribution normal  (Figure 1, LHS). The double pendulum involves two identical representative agents which interact. Its dynamics are complex and highly non-linear and it is Power Law distributed (Figure 1, RHS). Even simple interactions among representative agents generate complex system dynamics. 22  For example, Galí (2015). For example, Kydland and Prescott (1982). Haldane (2016), Haldane and Turrell (2018). 25 For example, Kaplan, Moll and Violante (2018).

On the other hand, financial market participants and public authorities responsible for financial stability require information to monitor the risks related to the hedge fund sector. On those remarks, I leave the floor to the panelists, and first to Jaime Caruana, who has kindly accepted to kick start the panel. 2  BIS Review 42/2007
And yet, as I have said on countless occasions, drawing on former Dallas Fed board Chairman Herb Kelleher’s love for bourbon, once we had QE3 in place, I considered it unwise to go directly from Wild Turkey to cold turkey for fear of getting the financial equivalent of delirium tremens; indeed, we saw that with the “taper tantrum” the markets threw in May of 2013. So I was an eager proponent of the tapering program the FOMC initiated in January of this year. I want to be clear here. Especially at the beginning of QE3, when the nonsense term “QE infinity” was being broadcast by otherwise responsible analysts, journalists and pundits, rates dipped to lows that helped creditworthy businesses bolster their balance sheets and strengthen their wherewithal for future expansion. Again, even if you were living under a rock, you know that this gift of near-cost-free debt as measured in inflation- and tax-adjusted terms has thus far been used primarily to finance stock buybacks, increase dividends and fatten cash reserves, and recently, finance mergers by the most creditworthy companies. For those with access to capital, it was a gift of free money to speculate with. (One wag – I believe it was me – quipped that there was, indeed, a “positive wealth effect… the wealthy were affected most positively.”) We know that monetary policy acts with long and variable lags.

If, even after the mid-term elections tomorrow, the fiscal authorities – Congress and the president – are unable to provide tax, spending and regulatory incentives for job creators to use the cheap and abundant capital the FOMC and other creditors have made available, the economy might once again find itself becalmed. In the speech I gave nearly four years ago to your sponsor, the Manhattan Institute, I specifically said of the then new Congress: “For all the hoopla (surrounding it), it will prove to be nothing more than a case of putting old, rancid wine in new bottles.” 6 Pray this does not happen again. Should the FOMC then try to compensate for fiscal authorities’ inability to act by provisioning still more monetary fuel, it may risk an explosion of speculative excess, or worse: an eventual inflationary conflagration, the debasement of money and the ruination of our economy and lifestyle. Should this prove the outcome, the Fed will be transmogrified from hero to villain. To thicken the plot, as Act V began, Captain Bernanke exited stage right and a new skipper entered stage left. I should say here that I advocated for this particular skipper. Janet Yellen, when she was just another member of the crew as a Fed governor, was pigeonholed as a “dove” (forgive the double-entendre; doves are, ornithologically speaking, part of the pigeon family) but has proven herself in her role at the helm of the FOMC to be neither dove nor hawk.
As national financial sectors become increasingly integrated and interdependent, another top priority for us must be to strengthen our understanding of the factors that drive global capital asset allocation, and the reasons for capital flows across sectors and national borders. Early identification and assessment of capital flows will help us evaluate vulnerabilities in a timely manner, as well as enhance  BIS Review 43/2005  3  countries’ ability to address them. The effectiveness of our bilateral and multilateral surveillance activities will also be strengthened as a result. For members who wish to access international capital markets and integrate their economies more fully into the global financial system, we can provide advice on the appropriate sequencing of measures, such as how to strengthen their financial sectors and reduce their vulnerability to shocks as preparatory steps. Third, IMF financing and lending. The Fund’s traditional role of providing financing to help smooth the adjustment of temporary current-account imbalances remains vital for many countries. For others, our main task is to help prevent, or mitigate, capital account crises and their cross-border contagion effects. To succeed in these roles, the IMF must be able to exercise selectivity in supporting only those adjustment programs that will put the relevant members firmly on the path to external viability. The existence of robust domestic institutional frameworks, and strong national ownership of programs, would be key.

This should be complemented with an incentive structure within each bank that not only rewards revenue generation but also cost reduction. Payment system infrastructure providers Basic payment infrastructure should be viewed as a form of ‘utility services’ such as electricity, telephone and broadband lines, where it is regarded as a key enabler for innovation. Hence, access to payment infrastructure should be made as open and as affordable as possible. The bigger the network of a payment infrastructure, the more value it can bring to its participants in terms of economies of scale and multiplier network effects. Payment system infrastructure development should be shared and not be regarded as a competitive tool as investments in this space is expensive and continuous. Therefore, payment system infrastructure providers such as MEPS and MyClear should collaborate more effectively to avoid duplication and wastage. In addition, MEPS and MyClear should also collaborate and put in place common payment system infrastructure that would benefit all stakeholders. The recent collaboration between MEPS and MyClear under the Malaysian Chip Card Specification (MCCS) initiative to migrate the domestic debit card to the Europay-MasterCard-Visa (EMV) standard and contactless feature is a step in the right direction. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Moving forward, MEPS and MyClear should jointly identify areas for strategic cooperation, with a clear line of sight to the future, to ensure that payment system infrastructure in Malaysia continue to keep pace with innovation and meet user needs.
Federal banking agencies provide banks additional flexibility to support households and businesses and Federal Reserve Board announces temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio rule to ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the coronavirus and increase banking organizations’ ability to provide credit to households and businesses 5Federal Reserve Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses 6 Federal Reserve announces its Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility is fully operational and available to provide liquidity to eligible financial institutions 7 More information on the PPPLF 8Agencies issue revised interagency statement on loan modifications by financial institutions working with customers affected by the coronavirus 9 CA 20-4: CRA Consideration for Activities in Response to the Coronavirus  https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2020/sti200424  2/2

However, it is an unrealised accounting loss, and it would reverse if the exchange rate should move in the opposite direction. No assets have been lost. The foreign currency value of the reserves is unchanged, and the purchasing power in terms of what the reserves would be used for is intact. Other aspects of the matter are of greater concern: the negative interest rate differential resulting from investing the reserves at historically low foreign interest rates and the interest expense on the Central Bank’s króna-denominated liabilities, which bear much higher interest. Extrapolations to 2025 indicate that, other things being equal, the Central Bank will record losses of 18 b.kr. per year from 2018 onwards, and the Bank’s equity will be negative thereafter. This in and of itself is not Armageddon, and many central banks have functioned quite successfully with negative equity. Nevertheless, it is better for a number of reasons if the Central Bank has an acceptable capital position. Extrapolations carried out by the Bank show that with various measures and appropriate distribution of the cost of the reserves among the parties that benefit from them, the gap can be closed. Among the measures is the possibility of increasing returns on the reserves by splitting them up into two or more tranches based on term and yield. The question has arisen whether the foreign exchange reserves are too large, or in other words, whether the costs outweigh the benefits.
See the box on page 13 of the May 2009 Inflation Report for discussion of the reasons for excluding intermediate OFCs in measures of broad money. 7  This is in a similar spirit to Bernanke, Reinhart and Sack (2004). BIS Review 29/2010  5  Similarly, movements in OIS rates following policy announcements may provide a guide to the extent to which the announcements affected expectations about the future stance of monetary policy. OIS rates fell sharply following the initial announcements of QE, particularly at short horizons, suggesting these announcements caused market participants to revise down the expected future path of Bank Rate. However, perhaps not surprisingly, as QE has become better understood, OIS rates have responded less to more recent announcements. This is consistent with market participants increasingly viewing QE as part of the systematic component of monetary policy. To the extent that gilt yields and other asset prices have moved in response to this systematic component, these movements would not be captured by event studies and hence looking only at announcement effects may tend to understate the impact of QE. Gilts make up a relatively small proportion of total assets held by the private sector. As such, when assessing the overall impact of our asset purchases it is important to consider the increase in other asset prices. Since we started QE, equity prices have increased by more than 50%, and corporate bond yields have fallen by over 400 basis points.

For this reason, when making an assessment of the likely impact of asset purchases, the Committee did not factor in a material expansion of bank lending. Indeed, our asset purchases were designed to facilitate a disintermediation of corporate financing away from banks and toward capital markets. This disintermediation was supported in part by the portfolio rebalancing triggered by our gilt purchases. As investors’ demand for alternative assets such as corporate bonds and equities increased, the ability of businesses to raise finance in capital markets improved and the cost fell. This disintermediation was reinforced by the Bank’s operations to improve the functioning of corporate credit markets. The financial market dislocation in the immediate aftermath of the crisis hindered the functioning of the commercial paper and corporate bond markets and led to substantial increases in liquidity premia. In response, the Bank established facilities to make small regular purchases of corporate bonds and commercial paper, with the aim of aiding secondary market liquidity. The significance of these purchases of private sector debt should not be judged by their scale, which was tiny in comparison to gilt purchases. The purpose of these operations was not to purchase a specific quantity of assets, but rather to improve the functioning of those markets. In that respect, the knowledge that the Bank stands ready to purchase assets may be as beneficial as actual purchases. 5 The importance of expectations also played a central role in the design of our asset purchase programme.
At the same time, the Commission also evaluated the reliable monetary policy followed, highlighting particularly the measures taken by the Bank of Albania in terms of gradually changing its monetary policy strategy towards explicit inflation targeting regime, aiming at enhancing transparency and credibility of its monetary policies. The report highlighted also the positive developments in the banking sector of the country and assessed the progress achieved regarding the establishment of the loans register, free movement of banking and financial services, freedom of establishment of foreign banks and further liberalization of capital movement. On 27 January, 2006, the Executive Board of the IMF adopted the three-annual agreement with Albania, at SDR 17.045 million. The main targets of the new program have to do with the maintaining of macroeconomic stability, as a prerequisite for economic growth, and the improvement of financial institutions. Under Reserves Advisory and Management Program (RAMP), during 2006 the World Bank’s group provided consulting and technical assistance to the Bank of Albania for foreign reserve management. During 2006 the Bank of Albania established constant contacts with the EBRD, mainly in terms of providing information and statistics for the development of the Albanian economy in general and financial sector in particular. The Transition Report 2006 assessed positively the maintaining of inflation within the Bank of Albania’s target and the consolidation of the banking system over 2006. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is another institution with which the Bank of Albania kept close contacts during 2006.

The adverse effects of the reduction in output are meanwhile compounded by higher consumption, which tends to crowd out investment expenditure and exert adverse pressures on price levels and the external balance of payments. The desirable outcomes of policies intended to meet population ageing are, therefore, not hard to identify. Such policies must aim at producing an increase in productive capacity and output, and stimulating saving and investment, thereby alleviating pressures on inflation, fiscal resources and the external account. Indeed, these outcomes are desirable independently of population ageing, but are rendered even more urgent by the onset of the phenomenon. It is the way in which this strategy is to be implemented that is often subject to contention. Opinions tend to diverge because it is not always appreciated that any course of action chosen, including a passive stance, involves sacrifices. An increase in resources devoted to pensions must imply higher taxation, a reduction in funds allocated to other equally worthy causes, or burdens on society as a whole in terms of higher inflation and interest rates. On the other hand, reforms that should engender a win-win situation in the long run could perhaps impose sacrifices on a number of individuals in the short term. It is, therefore, important to promote an informed debate which takes account of the costs and benefits involved in any course of action, with a view to reaching agreement on viable solutions.
We know the current over-reliance on monetary policy to solve the problems arising from the global financial crisis has had downsides for long term finance, particularly pension funds and insurance funds. The costs and benefits of low or negligible interest rates are being debated, but there is no doubt about the increasing burden they pose for pension and insurance funds. 6. But the problem is not merely to do with current monetary policies, and not fundamentally of a cyclical nature. Low real interest rates are very likely here to stay, and for reasons that are essentially structural. 7. There are two main forces behind this. 8. The first is ageing itself, and its implications for savings behaviour, particularly in today’s advanced countries. A baby boom generation is reaching retirement, and they also expect to live significantly longer than their parents did. They will have to save more, for some time to come, in order to sustain themselves through retirement. Higher savings will in turn mean that a continuing surplus of savings over investment globally, a stubborn gap, and it also means that interest rates over the medium to long term, even after the normalisation of monetary policy, will remain low. 9. This is accentuated by shifts in asset allocation, as the baby boom generation is also likely to allocate more funds to bonds and other fixed income instruments, and gradually reduce holdings of equity.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Switzerland and Singapore - small countries as platforms for global business Keynote address by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Swiss Business Association, Singapore, 18 September 2006. *  *  *  Once in a while, the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank do not take place in Washington, as usual, but are held somewhere else in the world. The fact that we are meeting in Singapore this time is a welcome opportunity for me to return to the "City of the Lion". I am happy to be with you today and I would like to thank the Swiss Business Association and Ambassador Woker for hosting this Association lunch. For Swiss people, it is always a pleasure – even a delight – to spend time in this fascinating city. Since Singapore is often referred to as the "Switzerland of Asia" it is particularly interesting for them to make comparisons with their home country. As a matter of fact, I am one of some 50,000 Swiss who visit Singapore each year. 1 Singapore is a unique place with its beautiful skyline, its outstanding location, its pulsating life, and – most of all – its openness to the world. Interestingly, Singapore and Switzerland share many common features. In particular, both of our countries have to deal with surrounding neighbours that are much larger and more powerful.
In order to join euro area, Latvia, like any other potential member, needs to be deemed to have fulfilled the “Maastricht criteria”, and to do so in a sustainable fashion. The recent euro area crisis has clearly revealed what can happen when the agreed rules are not followed, especially how damaging this can be for the country concerned. As a corollary, countries which sustainably adhere to these rules, and which have a clear track record of prudence and adjustment capacity, act as net providers of stability, bringing benefits to other members of the euro area. That additional benefit should be remembered. Also, the sheer signal of countries wanting to join the euro area right now is also another contributor to this confidence that we all need. This morning, I would like to briefly touch on three themes. First, a bit about the reasons for joining the euro area. Second, a bit about the process and making the point that it is more a process than an event. And finally, our experience to date as a member of the euro area. Starting with the motivating factors, in one sense we do not need a motivating factor because when we all joined the European Union in 2004, we made a commitment that the euro would be our currency. Thus, the “if” question has already technically been answered and it is only a question of timing.

For Estonia as a small European economy highly dependent on trade, euro area membership was a natural goal stemming from close economic ties and similar cyclical behavior. A common currency with many of our main trading partners would reduce the costs of trading and more importantly deepen the economic integration that can drive all of the productivity improvements that will ultimately lie behind higher living standards. Our main trading partners are in Europe, so it is not an international issue for us but domestically important if we want to grow. In any case, our strategic choice two decades ago to tie our currency first to the DM, then to the euro, and a clear determination to never change this peg, meant that our macroeconomic environment was already very similar to that of a euro area member, and that the extra step towards full euro area membership would only be logical and natural. Let me now turn to the process. When discussing such currency reforms, we often speak in terms of the date on which this takes place, which can leave the impression of a single event which suddenly brings great changes. In fact, the process element is crucial. We have been on a given path for 20 years, and we will be on this path for another few decades. Therefore,  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  it is many small steps that contribute and the actual date of conversion is somewhat less of an event.