Other surveys of economists and market participants of longer-run inflation expectations, such as the Blue Chip survey and the New York Desk surveys, yield similar results. 6 Another form of relevant sensitivity analysis is the response of interest rate to economic shocks or news. As discussed in Swanson and Williams (2014), responses of yields to  news can be distorted when short-term interest rates are at or near the effective lower abound. 7 Armantier et al. (February 2022). 8 There is a literature that aims to extract inflation expectations from breakeven inflation rates; see Breach et al (2022) and references therein. These measures of inflation  expectations tend to be even more stable than breakeven inflation rates, including during the current episode. 9 As discussed in Mertens and Williams (2021). 10By Mankiw, Reis, Wolfers (2003) and ReisTerms (2022). continuing to and use our site, you agree to our of Use and Privacy Statement. You can learn more about how we use cookies by reviewing our Privacy Statement. 11 Note that the five-year-ahead survey was conducted in July 2021, November 2021, and monthly starting in January 2022. The dashed lines in Figures 2 and 3 indicate  periods when this survey question was not asked. 12 Armantier et al (May 2022, October 2022). 13 The University Michigan survey of inflation over the next 5-10 years also shows a rise in deflation expectations this year. 14 A similar pattern is seen in aggregate uncertainty for one-year-ahead inflation expectations. 15 Armantier et al. (October 2022). 16 Armantier et al.

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