There is a demand for totally different managerial skills in the global economy, which are currently being rapidly developed in the Asian countries. For instance, in order to lower the personnel rotation, which is an ever-present problem of all call centres, the Indian companies have elaborated HR management techniques. It appears that off-shoring of services is only gathering momentum and is covering ever new areas (IT, shared services, BPO 13 , logistics, finance, legal services, etc.). Moreover, a new type of outsourcing/off-shoring, namely KPO 14 , appeared. Companies that outsource knowledge processes employ a few thousand high rank experts (often holding Ph. D. degree) in countries of low manufacturing costs. For example, one of the major international investment banks, which holds top positions in quality rankings of research and analyses, has outsourced its research and analyses department. Following the completion of each research, there is a follow-up research to check customer satisfaction; moreover, outsourcing has made it possible to launch new products and improve quality. For example, thanks to lowering the costs and increasing the number of analysts, it was possible to start analysing small and medium-sized listed companies, which had not been possible before, due to a high cost of an analyst. Outsourcing of knowledge processes is covering more and more areas and requires, as opposed to the outsourcing of business processes, a close collaboration of the customer and the end-user. More and more companies are planning on developing products/services through adopting a global product development strategy.

As I have discussed here, this is a multifaceted issue that must consider crisis predictability, management, and the role of research in providing rigorous frameworks – albeit incomplete ones – with which to analyze reality. Nonetheless, that macroeconomic theory has failed is an overstatement. In particular, the comparatively better performance of emerging economies – with the exception of a few cases such as Eastern Europe that remind us of our mistakes of the past – demonstrate that economic research has taught us something. In particular, the majority of macroeconomic policies have sought not to replicate past mistakes. Now it is necessary to analyze more carefully the role of financial markets, their virtues and, of utmost importance, their vulnerabilities. This crisis is an admonishment to professional arrogance. We must recognize that the real world is much more complex than what our models can explain. This is why so-called  6  BIS Review 112/2009  professional orthodoxy is discredited. However, we must also avoid the arrogance that comes from ignorance, which leads to abandoning all we have learned about the fundamentals of good macroeconomic policies. References Berg, A., E. Borensztein and C. Pattillo (2004), “Assessing Early Warning Systems,” IMF Working Paper, 04/52. Bernanke, B. (1983), “Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression,” American Economic Review 73(3): 257-76. Bernanke, B. and H. James (1991), “The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison,” in G. Hubbard (ed. ), Financial Markets and Financial Crisis, Chicago: Chicago University Press.