samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Global economic activity has weakened in recent months. Although GDP growth is likely to pick up again somewhat after stagnating in the second half of 2018, the inflation outlook for this year and next is subdued. In addition to this, given the economic and political uncertainty in many countries, the situation on the financial and foreign exchange markets remains fragile. Page 6/8  Against the current backdrop, our unconventional monetary policy with the negative interest rate and our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary remains both essential and appropriate. And this is in part also because it does not attach greater weight to any individual issues over others, and is instead at all times focused on the interests of Switzerland as a whole. The negative interest rate has its place among the instruments at the SNB’s disposal, which include conventional and unconventional measures alike. It is incumbent on us to use the instruments best suited to tackling the situation at hand. However, I would like to stress one thing: I am convinced that we will at some point return to positive interest rates. I cannot tell you now when exactly that will be. This will hinge on developments in inflation, growth and exchange rates going forward. Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to conclude by taking this opportunity, also on behalf of my Governing Board colleagues Fritz Zurbrügg and Andréa Maechler, to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication.

Dimitar Bogov: “The savings deposits soar also during crisis” – interview in Radio Free Europe Interview with Mr Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, in Radio Free Europe, conducted by Mr Aleksandar Pesev on 29 September 2013. *  *  *  Mr. Bogov, is the ending of the crisis in the Euro area going to have a direct impact on the boost of the economic growth in the Republic of Macedonia? Of course, the Euro area and the European Union are the largest trading partners of the Republic of Macedonia, the largest portion of our export is placed there, and as a result, the demand in the Euro area has large influence on the production in Macedonia. We were encouraged by the data for the second quarter of the year on the Gross Domestic Product, where after six quarters of negative results, positive growth rate has finally been registered. We expect that this will endure also in the following period, we are aware that this growth in the Euro area and the European Union is still very fragile, meaning, there are still risks, but we are optimistic, the indicators that emerge in the Euro area economy every day are mainly positive, so it is expected that it will reflect adequately on the Macedonian economy growth, as well. Can the recent trade war we had with the neighboring Kosovo somehow spoil the perceptions for this positive growth?
The Fed System is comprised of the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. – a federal agency currently led by Chairman Ben Bernanke – plus 12 regional Reserve Banks that span the country. For example, the district overseen by the New York Fed includes all of New  1  See top winning videos of the New York Fed’s Financial Awareness Video Competition on YouTube: Think Twice Before You Swipe Debt Comedy Jam Credit Card Arrest  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  York, the 12 northern counties of New Jersey; Fairfield County, Connecticut; Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Each Reserve Bank is distinct, with its own charter and a board of directors drawn from its district, but overseen by the Board of Governors. The law that created the Federal Reserve made the central bank independent so that policymakers could make decisions about monetary policy in the national interest, somewhat insulated from political pressure. However, the Fed is accountable to Congress. Congress has set an explicit objective for monetary policy: To pursue the highest level of employment consistent with price stability. This objective is often referred to as our “dual mandate,” because it combines two goals: high employment, and low and stable inflation. In order to promote these objectives, we also pay close attention to financial stability, because without financial stability, it is very hard to achieve our goals for jobs and inflation.

As set out in the Financial Stability Board's (FSB) latest progress reportOpens in a new window in October 2022, much progress has already been made including: agreeing global quantitative targetsOpens in a new window and a methodology for measuring progress towards them, undertaking stocktakes and analyses of existing payment systems and arrangements, and publishing proposals and best practice for achieving progress. And there have already been tangible changes, for example the move by SWIFT and some key systems to ISO 20022Opens in a new window messaging standards, increased operating hours and the launch of interlinking arrangements such as between Thailand's PromptPay and Singapore's PayNow. Now the work is at an inflection point: many of the original roadmap actions have been completed, providing a solid foundation from which to make real changes to the crossborder payments experience. In February 2023 the FSB published a set of priority actions that will be taken forward to meet the cross-border payments targets by 2027. The actions are grouped in three priority focus areasOpens in a new window: Payment system interoperability and extension; Legal, regulatory and supervisory frameworks; and Cross-border data exchange and message standards. We need to work together to make payments faster, cheaper, more accessible, and more transparent. Some of this work needs to continue to be international for example, agreeing approaches to harmonising rules and standards.
Here too, an apparent backlog in demand had to be satisfied. Subsequently, developments became more complex. In the face of increasingly scarce resources, the question arose as to what the optimal role of government should be in terms of type, scope and implementation of its activities. There is obviously also a dark side to this briefly outlined development. The pace of activities increasingly overwhelmed many contemporaries and thus led to new tensions. The social fabric has become less cohesive. Relations between individuals are more difficult. Environmental pollution is a problem which we tend to repress. Finally, we have come to realise that an increasing economic interdependence between individual countries entails opportunities as well as risks. In short, we are today confronted with problems of a mature society. It is perhaps a small comfort, but nevertheless important, to point out that we find ourselves in a similar position as our neighbours and other comparable industrial states. Satisfaction with what has been achieved makes one forget all too easily what was needed to advance so far and what will be needed to maintain – if not increase – this level of prosperity. In the interests of innovation, flexibility and productivity, further adjustments are imperative. They must, however, take place in a manner that will not put at risk social cohesion. Demands should be made on the individual, but they should not be excessive. The goal of our common effort is a development which assures security, freedom and general welfare in a balanced way.

But it also extends to tending to the so-called culture of the institution – for example, ensuring that good ideas rise to the top no matter where they originate, and that people feel comfortable to challenge the conventional wisdom. These challenges are energizing, and that’s why being president of the New York Fed is the greatest job in the world. And I am confident that, because of the talent and dedication of our staff, the New York Fed will succeed in surmounting the challenges it faces now and will face over the next 100 years. And to drive home the point of our staff’s dedication, I would like to highlight the efforts of one person, Rosemary Lazenby, who has made this exhibit possible. Rosemary is the longest tenured employee at the Bank – 55 years – she is our resident historian and curator and she has delayed her retirement in order to develop this centennial exhibit. Her efforts are just another example of what really glistens at 33 Liberty Street (and I am not referring to the gold in our vault). Thank you Rosemary, and thank you all for coming out this this evening to enjoy the centennial exhibit. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Page 1  Inflation persistence and monetary policy − speech by Huw Pill ICMB Lecture, Graduate Institute, Geneva  Page 2  Published on 04 April 2023  In this speech Huw Pill discusses the outlook for the economy, including how lower energy prices might push down on inflation in the short term, but could also boost demand and therefore impact inflation in the medium term. He stresses that the MPC must continue to monitor how these external shocks to inflation might become embedded in the economy, and therefore risk persistently high domestically driven inflation. He goes into detail about the Monetary Policy Committee’s role in controlling inflation, and the potential impact of its recent significant increases to interest rates. He outlines how the Monetary Policy Committee carefully assesses the impact of interest rate rises that have yet to feed through, with the need to address current inflationary pressures. Speech Good evening everyone. It is a great pleasure to talk under the auspices of the International Centre for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB) this evening. Thanks in particular to Professor Panizza for extending the invitation. I look forward to a stimulating debate. Let me start with some stark and uncomfortable facts. Annual UK CPI inflation was 10.4% in February. That is unacceptably high. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is committed to returning inflation to its 2% target on a sustainable basis.

This is what creates the potential for the ‘second round effects’ that seek to avoid the real cost of higher energy prices to sustain above target inflation even as the original impulse to headline inflation from the direct effect of higher energy prices on household utility bills recedes. [24] In other words, the level of energy prices is likely to have implications for how much intrinsic inflation persistence exists in the aftermath of an energy price shock. If a rise in energy prices in seen as permanent, it is more likely to trigger greater intrinsic inflation persistence. And the greater the proportion of any energy price rise that is seen as being lasting rather than temporary, the greater the intrinsic inflation persistence that is likely to follow. Page 9  Making assessments of this type is particularly important at present. Headline inflation is set to fall sharply in the coming months, both because the big contributions from energy price rises last year will drop out of the annual calculation and because wholesale gas prices have reverted of late. But the level of energy prices remains well above pre-pandemic levels, so the scope for some sustained momentum in inflation stemming from greater intrinsic inflation persistence exists.
Indeed, if this cushion gets internalised in expectations, it reduces the probability of disinflationary dynamics taking hold in the first place. Chart 26: Annual CPI inflation with an effective lower bound of 0.5% Per cent  2010  2012  2014  Chart 27: Annual CPI inflation with an effective lower bound of 0% Per cent  6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4  6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3  2016  -4 2010  2012  2014  2016  Source: Bank calculations. A final, and the most conservative, insurance policy against disinflationary risks would be to ease monetary policy pre-emptively. Even if the modal view of expected inflation is for it to return to target over the planned horizon, mean expected inflation will be lower if risks are skewed to the downside. Provided policymakers care about these risks, there is then a case for setting policy in response to mean, rather than modal, inflation expectations.19 This option is not a hypothetical one. Already during the course of less than three months this year, more than 25 central banks internationally have eased policy through a combination of lower interest rates, currency adjustments or unconventional methods. Here in the UK the situation is somewhat different, with activity growing pretty strongly and slack being eroded. The MPC’s best collective judgement is that interest rates are more likely than not to rise over the forecast horizon.

Lower inflation and improved macroeconomic balance will also create a climate in which the nominal exchange rate of the króna can begin to appreciate. Furthermore, I underline that interest rates definitely do have the same effect in Iceland as in other countries, and that our research and studies indicate beyond any doubt that the impact of monetary policy in Iceland is similar to that elsewhere. However, people need to understand exactly what monetary policy is capable of, and what it is not. Transparency Finally, I shall turn to issues which are no less important than those I have already mentioned. Greater central bank independence in recent years has been accompanied by much more stringent requirements about transparency and accountability towards the government and general public. This means that central banks should operate as openly as possible. They must give clear accounts of their policies and assessments of the economic and monetary situation and outlook, and explain in detail the assumptions underlying their monetary decisions. All this serves the purpose of informing the government and public as fully as possible about monetary policy, providing them with a basis for understanding it and, depending on the circumstances, making an independent evaluation of it. One way in which the Central Bank fulfils this function is with the publication of its quarterly Monetary Bulletin.
We have taken this step not because banks are weak but because they are in fact strong. Unlike in 2008, the banks are not the weak link in a crisis which this time is of public health; a crisis which is economic, but, at least in terms of its causes, non-financial in nature. This is notably the result of the regulations that we have implemented and reinforced over the last ten years. And it is what now gives us greater leeway to ease certain capital requirements, such as the counter-cyclical buffer, and to push back the entry into force of the Basel III accords by one year to 2023. All these measures should be considered in light of the – often heated – discussions on the degree of financial solidarity in Europe. Arguably, Europe could perhaps do more, but let’s not forget that it is already doing a great deal, thanks to major efforts from the Eurosystem or the easing – agreed quickly and unanimously – of the Stability and Growth Pact, which gives natural priority to national action. If we consider a possible role for the European Solidarity Mechanism (ESM), the amounts involved – around EUR 410 billion – would certainly be significant. However, the support provided by the ECB alone represents EUR 1,050 billion on the markets and up to EUR 3,000 billion in bank liquidity. Furthermore, the Monetary Union allows Italy and Spain to borrow at a far lower interest rate than before the euro.

We are still faced with five challenges and if I may, I would like to consider each of them in turn. 1) The first challenge is to complete the rules for banks’ minimum capital requirements by finalising the Basel III reform. The majority of the work – let’s say 80% – has already been done: its main aspects were approved in 2010–2011 and are now widely implemented. However, discussions remain ongoing on the question of risk weighting in bank balance sheets. The goal is to limit any unjustified variability in the weighting between banks or countries. However, this must not result in a standardisation, as the variability of results is also a reflection of different risk profiles. The risk sensitivity allowed for in banks’ internal models represents a huge step forward, as it ensures that requirements are proportionate to risk-taking. Naturally, we must reinforce confidence in internal models by supervising them closely, as the ACPR has long done and as the Single Supervisory Mechanism in Frankfurt does today. But the task at hand is to finalise Basel III, not to build a new Basel IV based mainly on the standard approach that by definition would not take account of differences between countries and banks. It is in the strategic interests of France, which has always promoted international rules, to conclude a final agreement on Basel III.
I would like to highlight today three important pieces of work of the TMA: (a) the TMA has conducted a thorough review of the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) fixing mechanism and presented to the Hong Kong Association of Banks (HKAB) recommendations to enhance the transparency, robustness and governance of the HIBOR fixing mechanism. These recommendations were subsequently accepted by the HKAB and endorsed by the HKMA in February 2013 for implementation. Under the new regime, the TMA has taken over from HKAB as the administrator of the HIBOR fixing mechanism with Hong Kong Interbank Clearing Limited serving as the calculating agent. (b) Another landmark achievement was the launch of CNH HIBOR. Having undertaken more than one year of pilot trials, the TMA officially launched in June 2013 the CNH HIBOR fixing, which is the first offshore RMB interest rate benchmark in the world. This is a very important piece of market infrastructure which will facilitate the development of a whole array of offshore RMB credit and interest rates contracts and products; and  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  (c) The TMA is also an important player in professional training. In close collaboration with the HKMA, the Hong Kong Institute of Bankers and the Hong Kong Securities and Investment Institute, the TMA has participated and contributed to the design of a new professional competency framework for practitioners in the private wealth management industry.

The second measure relates to responsible investment by the Exchange Fund. The Exchange Fund now adopts a guiding principle that priority will be given to Green and ESG investments, if the long term return is comparable with other investments on a risk-adjusted basis. 11. Our third measure is the launch of the Centre for Green Finance under the HKMA’s Infrastructure Financing Facilitation Office, focusing on capacity building to facilitate the equipping of financial institutions with the knowledge, skills, tools and other resources in green finance. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  12. In fact, we’re now in our developmental plan to prepare banks for the upcoming changes. A working group on the assessment framework has been in place since August, and today’s seminar marks the beginning of the capacity building programme for the Centre for Green Finance. On the other hand, the assessment framework will help banks understand their readiness for change, while the capacity building events will equip practitioners with the necessary knowledge for the changes. 13. For today’s seminar, we will first invite the IFC to provide an overview of the opportunities and challenges to green banking, and introduce some case studies on their approach to assisting banks in “greening” their operations. This afternoon, several banks will share their initiatives and practical experience on their green journey, including governance, risk management, disclosure and green products and business policy. 14. And here I would like to extend our special thanks to the IFC for their dedicated support for this workshop.
The TAMC was set up to reduce distressed assets in the banking system through centralization of NPLs management. TAMC’s ultimate goal goes beyond the partial clean up banks’ balance sheets. It is hoped that doing so would enable banks to resume their normal lending activity and get the entire economy going strongly again. Nevertheless, as great goals alone do not automatically translate into successful results, the eventual impact of TAMC on the current recovery will depend crucially on the performance of its management. Still, the effort to nurture our banking system back to its normal health has already started to bear some fruit. Profitability of the banking system is improving and the recent credit upgrade of major banks confirms that we are proceeding on the right track. This of course does not mean that all is well. There are still weak points in the system. But at least, we know where they are and we are working hard to tackle them. With respect to financial institution stability, the authorities’ strategy was to bring the infrastructures of the Thai financial system up to international standards. Among the measures taken are the introduction of strict provision requirements, the steps to the establishment of the Deposit Insurance Agency, and the tightening of the Bank of Thailand’s supervision and examination framework. To improve oversight, the Bank of Thailand has also adopted a policy in line with the new BIS Capital Accord, emphasizing the importance of systemic stability and efficient risk management.

In an effort to further modernize our financial system, the Bank of Thailand, in cooperation with stakeholders and representatives from the SEC and the Department of Insurance, is in the process of drafting the country’s first Financial Sector Master Plan. Scheduled to be implemented in 2003-2012, the Master Plan is intended to increase competition within the Thai financial systems and at the same time to improve the soundness of the system as a whole. The preliminary vision for the future of commercial banking and financial services in Thailand given by a high-level steering committee comprises three pillars – accessibility and availability of financial services for all potential users nationwide; a competitive and efficient financial system; and finally fairness for all customers. This preliminary vision of the Master Plan reflects our changing perception of the country’s new financial architecture. As there are already two Asian financial centers in Hong Kong and Singapore, there is no point to try to be the third one. Instead, what Thailand needs is probably a more customeroriented financial sector with efficient operation and minimum systemic risk. The extent to which Thailand’s financial service landscape is going to change from today will depend on the results and recommendations of an ongoing study. What I can tell you now is that whatever the final outcome will be, for Thailand, this is a change to rectify past shortcomings for the better. As we are drafting our Financial Sector Master Plan, the SET is working tirelessly on its Capital Market Master Plan.