samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The downturn has  10  See press release by the Council of the European Union’s Extraordinary Council meeting, Economic and Financial Affairs, Brussels, 9/10 May 2010. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  been less severe in Switzerland and Swiss output has been the first to reach its pre-crisis level. Overall, GDP rose by 2.6% in 2010, after having fallen by 1.9% in 2009. Chart 9 shows the evolution of inflation together with our most recent conditional forecast. The inflation rate recovered to 0.7% in 2010 after hitting a low of –0.5% in 2009. Why are the SNB interventions often perceived as unsuccessful? For outside observers studying the performance of the Swiss economy going in and out of the crisis and looking at Charts 8 and 9, this must be a puzzle. All the more so when they realise that this performance was not the result of an amply expansionary fiscal policy; on the contrary, the Swiss policy mix, a very expansionary monetary policy combined with a more contained fiscal policy, was appropriate given the circumstances. With the crisis originating almost entirely in foreign markets and hitting the export sector very strongly, a large domestic fiscal stimulus would have missed the target.

Banks with better measures of their economic risks will be able to allocate capital more efficiently and more closely in line with their actual sensitivity to the underlying risks. By doing so, the Basel II framework encourages developments in the management of a wide range of risks on a firm-wide basis and developing a more comprehensive approach to managing those risks together. Second, to achieve those capital benefits, the more advanced approaches to credit and operational risk require banks to meet strong process control requirements. Again, the increasing focus on a bank’s control environment gives greater weight to the management disciplines of measuring, monitoring and controlling risk. As an example, by relying on banks’ own internal credit assessments, the IRB approach builds on the risk management practices that most internationally active banks are already in the process of adopting for their internal purposes. To qualify for the IRB approaches, banks will need to adhere to various specific parameters and standards that may not be fully in place as yet. Our pilot reviews of U.S. bank readiness do indicate that there are a number of areas that both banks and supervisors will need to work on to be ready for full IRB implementation. These include addressing concerns about independence of the rating process, and accumulating necessary internal default and loss data to be able to produce more reliable quantitative estimates. Enhancements in these areas will be important, not just to ensure readiness for IRB, but for further improvement in credit risk management more generally.
However, we recognise that there are prudential risks and complexity within the matching adjustment that could be reduced. Some of these arise from the mechanics of the MA. When the MA – which is designed and calibrated with liquid, traded assets with fixed cash-flows in mind – is applied to assets that are illiquid or have some risks to fixity of cash-flows, then assessing its suitability becomes a much greater challenge. 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  5  The size of the MA benefit that a firm can take on its liabilities is driven by the credit rating assigned to its assets. This rating may be assessed by an external rating agency or the insurer itself – and the difficulty in modelling the behaviour of long-dated, illiquid assets creates some prudential risk. If an asset is too highly rated, a firm may be holding insufficient reserves to meet the risk of default or downgrade. Other risks arise from the type of investment that the MA’s strict eligibility criteria incentivise – such as securitised credit which can lack transparency. While the MA is a valuable part of the solvency framework, we are looking to reduce the complexity and operational burden on firms – and ourselves. Third, reporting requirements. The PRA is ready to consider certain short-term suspensions in some aspects of reporting, including the expansion of quarterly reporting waivers and some group reporting. Short-term suspensions could include removing quarterly reporting requirements for more firms or extending the use of annual reporting waivers.

We look forward to ADB’s continued engagement with its members to provide support that will cater for their changing needs as the region continues to progress and transform. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
The RQFII investment quota for Hong Kong has also been significantly increased to RMB500 billion July this year. In short, Hong Kong offers unparalleled access to Mainland markets and will continue to be the centre of action for market participants seeking to capitalise on the Mainland China story. Another exciting development is the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area. It is an 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  ambitious plan to build a cosmopolitan cluster covering Hong Kong, Macao, and nine other coastal cities in the Pearl River Delta. With a combined GDP of some $ trillion, it will be the fifth largest economy in Asia, just after South Korea. It will also be one of the wealthiest regions in Mainland China. I am sure this Greater Bay Area will provide a bigger stage for financial institutions to launch and expand their business. The planning is still at an early stage and we expect more details will be available soon. Belt & Road Initiative On infrastructure financing, the high-level Belt & Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing last May has added considerable momentum to infrastructure developments. Hong Kong has been positioning itself as the infrastructure hub to facilitate the related financial activities. A lot has been done through the Infrastructure Financing Facilitation Office, or IFFO in short, set up under the HKMA in 2016. A key mission of IFFO is to build and work with a cluster of stakeholders in the infrastructure financing and investment space.

Most of all, they must – by word and deed – make clear to their staff that meeting revenue targets must never be at the expense of treating their customers with fairness and honesty. Enhance transparency of products A key aspect of fair dealing is to make insurance and investment products more transparent. MAS has enhanced safeguards for consumers who buy investment and insurance products that are complex. For example, for consumers investing into unit trusts via their investment-linked life insurance policies, we now require insurers to provide a Product Highlights Sheet or “PHS” on the underlying funds. The PHS should be written in plain language, in a “Question & Answer” format prescribed by the MAS. It describes the profile of customers the fund is suitable for, what the fund invests in, and what the risk areas are that could cause a customer to incur a loss. We also require FA representatives to conduct a Customer Knowledge Assessment to assess whether a customer has the relevant knowledge or experience to understand the risks of products which are more complex or have innovative features which customers might not understand. FAIR – the next steps MAS recognises that FAIR will have a significant impact on the industry and on the public. We will take a consultative approach and engage all stakeholders. A review panel will be formed, with representation from industry associations, the investment community, academia, media and consumer bodies, to review and propose recommendations on the five areas I have outlined.
In this regard, high inflation and subdued wage growth (like we have observed so far in the euro area) imply a substantial decline in real incomes, which could translate into lower consumption and investment, and, therefore, into weaker underlying inflation dynamics beyond the immediate short term. Even though part of these negative effects have been mitigated so far by fiscal policy in many countries − where measures have concentrated on compensating, at least partially, low income households for the higher energy prices − looking ahead it is unclear how persistent this policy support may be. 11  3.2  Implications for monetary policy  Now that I have characterised recent inflation dynamics and the risks surrounding future price developments, let me draw some conclusions on how monetary policy in the euro area should respond, which are fully embedded in the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy. First, in this setting of heightened uncertainty, we have underlined the need to maintain optionality and flexibility and to remain attentive to the incoming data and forecasts in order to correctly adjust our monetary policy stance. As we have stated on numerous occasions, the ECB stands ready to act at any time and to adjust all of its instruments as deemed appropriate. But, I insist, the near term is plagued with uncertainty, in terms of pure inflation dynamics but also in relation to several geopolitical risks which could potentially be highly disruptive. That is why, now more than ever, we must maintain optionality and flexibility.

Against this background, the fact that inflation in the euro area remained persistently below the ECB’s target level during the period that ran between the global financial crisis and 2020 made clear that a comprehensive review of our monetary policy strategy (which was last revised in 2003) was appropriate. 2  To understand why inflation in the euro area remained below target for more than a decade, despite the fact that the ECB maintained a rather accommodative monetary policy stance, one must necessarily take into account the secular decline in the natural interest rate and the limitations that such a decline imposes, through the interest rate lower bound, on the conduct of monetary policy. The equilibrium or natural interest rate (r*) is defined as the real interest rate that simultaneously maintains output at its potential level and inflation stable at its target level. This rate, which cannot be observed directly, can only be estimated, with some degree of uncertainty, using econometric techniques. According to available estimates, the natural interest rate appears to have progressively declined in recent decades in advanced economies and, in the case of the euro area, estimates even place it at negative levels.1 This secular drop in r* is attributed, among other factors, to the decline in trend productivity growth, certain demographic developments and widening inequality. All of these are factors that will have changed the balance between the supply of savings and the demand for investment. And, why is this important for monetary policy? Well, the answer is clear.
In this context, 2011 will remain a difficult year for almost all economic agents, especially for Spanish banks, which must strive to defend their bottom line. Their net interest income will come under pressure from the stagnation of business volumes and the increase in financing costs, although, to qualify this, the pass-through of higher marginal rates to average margins is relatively slow. Furthermore, despite the substantial efforts made, the Banco de España’s provisioning rules will continue to compel banks to carry on recording provisions to restructure their assets. Against this backdrop, banks must counter the negative pressure on  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  profitability through cost containment, especially in those banks involved in restructuring processes. Banks will continue to suffer from the flatness of their main line of business, namely lending. Solvent demand will remain low and, if credit usually only recovers at the end of an adjustment phase, in the Spanish case, since households and corporations have to reduce their debt, solvent demand for credit can be expected all the more to take longer to grow. Given this outlook, it is most important that the banking sector is ready to provide credit when the related solvent demand recovers in parallel with the improvement in the situation of corporations and households. Accordingly, the restructuring measures adopted to date have prevented the survival of zombie banks which, were it not for their integration into the best banks, would have ultimately proven useless for providing credit.

Combined with high productivity growth, this has resulted in high corporate earnings and solid growth in employment. At the same time, wage-earners share of corporate value added has been reduced, from around 75 per cent at the end of the 1980s to 70 per cent at the end of the 1990s, and now  BIS Review 121/2007  1  stands at below 65 per cent. Solid productivity growth and high prices for export goods and deliveries to the petroleum sector have contributed to the reduction in the wage share over the past few years. The ample supply of labour has probably had a dampening effect on wage growth. Increased globalisation may have provided greater opportunities for Norwegian enterprises to relocate production to other countries if labour costs become too high. This probably places some restraint on wage demands among workers in sectors where enterprises have such opportunities. Historically, a high wage share has tended to be accompanied by low unemployment. Developments in recent years have provided the basis for strong growth in employment while the wage share has fallen. Is it possible to sustain the combination of low unemployment and a low wage share? First, it partly depends on whether the positive supply-side conditions are sustained. There is probably symmetry here. Should the terms of trade deteriorate, productivity growth slacken and foreign workers return to their home country, the wage share will increase, profits fall and unemployment increase. There is now a prospect of slower global growth.
A strong monetary policy response was therefore essential. In pursuit of our mandate, we decided on a comprehensive package of measures to ensure that inflation moves towards our aim in a sustained manner. We lowered the interest rate on the deposit facility from –0.40% to –0.50%. This rate provides an anchor for short-term market interest rates, which serve as the reference for many types of loans and financial instruments. Lowering the deposit facility rate helps to further improve the borrowing conditions of households and businesses. Negative rates also encourage banks to lend to the real economy instead of holding onto liquidity, thus supporting the portfolio rebalancing 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  channel of the asset purchase programme (APP). The impact of the cut in the deposit facility rate is reinforced by our strengthened forward guidance on the likely direction of our monetary policy in the future. Specifically, we clarified that we expect our policy rates to stay “at their present or lower levels until we have seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within our projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics”. This enhanced guidance provides a clear signpost for rate expectations by linking our policy to more stringent conditions for the inflation outlook.

We will continue to carefully monitor – as we always have done – the possible side effects of accommodative monetary conditions. It is crucial to remain vigilant and to use the available micro- and macroprudential policy tools as necessary. I will say more on this during the hearing in my capacity as Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board. The low yield environment needs to be understood in the context of the protracted decline in real yields we have witnessed since the 1980s. And this trend is not unique to the euro area. It largely reflects more structural factors such as a slowdown in productivity growth, which can be reversed through an ambitious structural reforms agenda. In other words, we need a coherent economic strategy in the euro area that complements and enhances the effectiveness of monetary policy. This is why there was unanimous consensus in the Governing Council that fiscal policy must make a more decisive contribution. In view of the weakening economic outlook and the continued prominence of downside risks, governments with fiscal space that are facing a slowdown should act in an effective and timely manner. Where fiscal sustainability is ensured, the potential effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy is reinforced in the current environment, given that 4/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  fiscal multipliers are higher in a low interest rate environment. At the same time, governments in countries with high public debt should pursue prudent policies and deliver on structural balance targets.
I feel the need at this ceremony to pay tribute to all deserving persons of history, who left inerasable trace in the development and building of the institution and in the establishment of the monetary system of the country. Here I would mention Dr. Todor Mirovski, as the first director of the Regional Office of the National Bank of FNRY of the then National Republic of Macedonia. Then, Mr. Aleksandar Bogoev who succeeded him in office shortly afterwards, and his successor, Mr. Trajan Ivanovski. I would also pay tribute to Mr. Bozidar Dare-Dzambaz who served as a finance minister at the time of establishing the central banking in the Republic of Macedonia. To Mr. Vladimir Polezhinoski – Polezhina as a Macedonian representative of the body that adopted the Decision that made the dinar a Yugoslav currency. To academician Ksente Bogoev, who also served as a governor of the National Bank of Yugoslavia. To the Governors of the National Bank in the Socialist Republic of Macedonia, Mr. Stojan Kjosev, Andon Makraduli and Risto Filipovski. I would pay special tribute to the first prime minister of independent Macedonia, academician Nikola Kljusev, who was one of the main protagonists not only of the monetary independence, but also as a maker of other decisions of that time, which meant completion of statehood. There is also the academician Petar Hristo Ilievski, known as the man who gave the name of the Macedonian denar.

Dimitar Bogov: Seventy years of central banking activities in the Republic of Macedonia Speech by Mr Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the ceremony of marking 70 years of central banking activities in the Republic of Macedonia and order award by his excellency Dr Gjorge Ivanov, President of the Republic of Macedonia, Skopje, 19 October 2016. * * * Honorable President of the Republic of Macedonia, Your Excellency, Dr. Gjorge Ivanov, Distinguished Members of Parliament and representatives of the Government, Honored Excellencies, Esteemed guests, ladies and gentlemen, It is my pleasure and honor, on behalf of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia and on my own behalf, to express my sincere gratitude to His Excellency, the President Dr. Gjorge Ivanov for the high recognition he has awarded to the National Bank tonight. I would also like to thank all of you for being present at the celebration that marks this great anniversary. It is a great honor to be awarded the “Order of Merits for Macedonia” by the head of state, in the year when the National Bank celebrates 70 years of central banking activities in the Republic of Macedonia. This award is a great recognition for the overall work of the National Bank. It is strong confirmation of the enormous contribution of the Bank to the state all these decades – as a central institution of the monetary system and a key pillar of macroeconomic stability.
This year, CHF 885 million have been reserved for this purpose, and similar sums will have to be set aside in the future. The closing of our accounts for 2004 thus brings with it an extraordinary allocation of profit to the Confederation and the cantons. It is important to emphasise that – paradoxically – the distribution of the CHF 21.1 billion accruing from the gold sales does not actually make them any richer. Up to now, the public sector received the income earned on this capital: a sum of CHF 400 million will also be allocated to them from this source this year. As of the beginning of next year, this income will no longer be distributed. As a result, the Confederation and the cantons will gain in terms of capital, but will lose in terms of transfers of interest income. If they use the proceeds of the gold sales to repay their debts, the reduction in financing charges will correspond approximately to the reduction in the profits paid to them by the SNB. In net terms, there will be few – if any – additional funds available for new expenditures. It is therefore important that decision-makers at all levels maintain a rational approach. The COSA initiative The distribution of the gold sale proceeds will not put an end to the political debate about the distribution of the National Bank's profits.

See Facilitating increased adoption of payment versus payment (PvP  )  5. See Harmonisation of ISO 20022: partnering with industry for faster, cheaper and more transparent cross-border payments 6. See Press release on SWIFT website 7. See Dealroom Fintech Q1 2023 report 8. See Payments modernization and technology in 2023 9. See PAPSS and ASEA forge strategic partnership to revolutionize cross-border payment of Stock Exchanges in Africa 10. See Rowing in unison to enhance cross-border payments − speech by Victoria Cleland  Page 9  11. See CPMI press release 12. Recent BIS figures  and FSB press release  show that the number of active correspondents has gone down by 30% in the last decade. 13. See Improving access to payment systems for cross-border payments: best practices for self-assessments 14. See Extending and aligning payment system operating hours for cross-border payments 15. See ISO 20022 harmonisation requirements for enhancing cross-border payments 16. See Interlinking payment systems and the role of application programming interfaces: a framework for crossborder payments 17. See Press release on the BIS website 18. See FATF Recommendations  Victoria Cleland Executive Director for Banking, Payments and Innovation  ©2023 Bank of England