samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Low growth in total factor productivity continues to be expected, which is supported by its consolidation of a downward trend (figure 12). Our neutral MPR estimate puts it at 3.75%, within a range between 3.5% and 4%, equivalent to a 25 basis points increase from our previous estimate. This hike is consistent with the recent reversal of neutral rates in other economies, which reversed the downward trend of global rates. 5  Our projections In the central scenario, headline inflation is projected to keep declining in the coming quarters, converging to the 3% target in the second half of 2024. Core inflation will decline somewhat more slowly, reaching 3% by the end of 2024. The trajectory we are forecasting for inflation is somewhat above our estimate in the last MP Report. By the end of this year, with the information available on 30 November, we projected annual inflation of 12.3% (12% in September). For 2023, we project headline inflation to average 6.6%, ending the year at 3.6% (6.1% and 3.3%, respectively, in September) (figure 13). This revision considers the surprise accumulated in recent months and a slower decline in the real exchange rate over the projection horizon. The real exchange rate will hover around its current levels for a few quarters, contributing to the adjustment of macro imbalances, and then will begin to decline, in line with the evolution of the economy and its fundamentals towards long-term stability. The convergence of inflation continues to rely on the economy continuing to adjust.

It refers to our children’s booklet, specially drafted for primary students. To ensure that the children understand and enjoy the story in their mother tongue, the Italian translation of the story was tested by the students of the Italian section of the European School in Frankfurt, Germany. It is a pleasure for us to present this booklet to you today. The booklet tells an exciting short story, set against the realistic background of a counterfeit case and explains, in an appropriate way for children, how to verify the authenticity of a euro banknote. As an additional educational benefit, its multilingual format can arouse the children’s interest in other languages. The name of this booklet is Anna & Alex take on the banknote forgers. After these introductory remarks it is now a pleasure for me to declare this Euro Exhibition open. You are kindly invited to come closer to view the exhibition and the children’s booklet. 2  BIS Review 44/2009
Foreign direct investment in Algeria is a relatively recent development and has notably followed the achievement of balance of payments viability. For the past six years (2003–2008), total FDIs amounted $ billion 8.7, of which 47.3% from EU countries and  BIS Review 168/2009  3  25.2% from Asian and Middle-Eastern and North African countries. The share of FDIs in the hydrocarbon sector in total FDIs, which reached 55% in 2005, has gradually declined to 42% on average during the recent years. Non-hydrocarbon sectors which attracted FDIs include the banking sector, chemical industry, food industry, electricity sector, water desalination, and construction material. The exchange rate policy is conducted by the Bank of Algeria in the context of a managed float regime of the dinar vis-à-vis the currencies of Algeria’s main trade partners. Since 2004, with a real effective exchange rate (REER) around the equilibrium level as determined by the economy’s fundamentals, exchange rate policy is well in line with external stability, the latter being anchored to a notably strong net external financial position. In operational terms, the Bank of Algeria intervenes in the interbank market to ensure that movements in the nominal exchange rate do not affect the long term equilibrium of the real effective exchange rate of the dinar.

Addressing the stigma issue is extremely complex and has potentially affected a number of central bank operations internationally. One way of addressing perceptions of stigma is through appropriate policies on disclosure. While headline results of the Bank’s auctions, such as total bids and total amount allotted, are published immediately at their conclusion, we publish only the average daily amount outstanding in the DWF over the quarter, aggregated across firms, and even that with a one-quarter lag. The intention is that DWF drawings will not be disclosed until after they have terminated. Moreover, where structured as a liquidity upgrade, DWF borrowings would not be visible on the Bank’s balance sheet, reducing the risk that any drawing is unintentionally revealed. Another possibility is that counterparties are concerned about being “spotted” using DWFsourced gilts in the repo markets. For the majority of cases, however, I think there are simple ways to alleviate these concerns – for example by encouraging banks to set up multiple repo counterparty relationships and rotate their regular gilt repo business amongst them. That would deliver wider business and financial stability benefits, even in the absence of the DWF. Indeed, the FSA requires banks to test their repo capacity by lending out gilts from their liquid asset buffers. Ultimately we expect a counterparty would draw on the DWF if it had to, despite any stigma concerns. The risk is that the perception of stigma might delay an application to borrow, making a firm’s liquidity position more perilous.
Even though used cars and trucks are a small category, their soaring prices account for nearly half a percentage point of the inflation since the start of the pandemic. 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  This is the result of a large imbalance in supply and demand for cars and trucks related to the pandemic. Strong demand for vehicles is being driven by rental car companies, stimulus payments, and the needs of a remote workforce. At the same time, the supply of vehicles has been curbed by earlier production cutbacks and shortages of semiconductor chips. This confluence of events has caused prices for motor vehicles—especially used cars and trucks—to soar. But, the good news is that used cars are unlikely to continue to contribute to high inflation in the future. In fact, the market for used vehicles appears to have stabilized, and as supply and demand gradually come back into balance, I expect used car prices will start to move back down toward more normal levels. The final category is underlying inflation. Various measures of longer-term inflation expectations are at levels consistent with our 2 percent long-run goal. At the same time, inflation has been reasonably tame in categories of services that are not as directly influenced by the pandemic— and likewise for measures of underlying inflation such as the trimmed-mean PCE inflation rate.

These participants can in turn conduct peer-to-peer payments and redeem the CBDC for reserves at the issuing central bank. Project Dunbar in the Singapore Centre is a collaboration among MAS, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Negara Malaysia, and the South African Reserve Bank. Built on two open-source distributed ledger platforms (i.e. Corda and Quorum), Project Dunbar focuses on international settlements using digital currencies issued by multiple central banks. Project Dunbar has successfully developed working prototypes that have successfully resolved challenges relating to access, governance, and jurisdictional boundaries. Project Dunbar is also focused on addressing the governance issues related to operating a multi-CBDC platform. For example: Security. How do we get multiple central banks to share a common platform and mitigate national security concerns associated with sharing critical infrastructure? Access. Who should participate in such a shared platform? Non-banks should be included because not everyone has a bank account. Regulation. How do we reconcile across different laws, regulations, guidelines and protocols that govern payments. The third pathway to solving the cross-border payments problem is through private sector led blockchain based payment networks. The use of distributed ledgers for cross-border settlement need not be confined to CBDCs. 4/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Securely-backed stablecoins or tokenised bank deposits issued by private sector players can also be used to enable cheaper and faster cross-border payment and settlement.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  NYSE/Arca BATS Other inc. dark and OTC  NYSE  NYSE/Arca  NASDAQ  BATS  DirectEdge  Other inc. dark and OTC  Source: Fidessa. 17  Chart 5:  Chart 6:  FTSE 100 trading volume shares, June 2008  FTSE 100 trading volume shares, June 2011  25%  29%  66%  0.3%  45% 0.1% 9%  13% 3% 2% LSE  Chi-X  Dark  SI  0% LSE Bats Europe Nyse Arca Dark OTC  OTC  Source: Fidessa. 4% 0%  4% Chi-X Turquoise Equiduct SI  Source: Fidessa. Chart 7:  Chart 8:  Access to multiple trading venues by European HFTs  Median end-of-day bid-ask spread for largest 20 stocks in FTSE 100 as a proportion of realised volatility(a) Percentage points 0.07  over 20 liquidity venues  0.06 up to 20 liquidity venues  0.05 up to 10 liquidity venues  0.04  up to 5 liquidity venues  0.03  2 liquidity venues  0.02 0.01  1 liquidity venue  0 0  5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Per cent  18  99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11  Source: Automated Trader. Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream. Notes: Survey among 171 high frequency traders. (a)  22 day average. Largest stocks by market capitalisation. Selected stocks updated annually.

Those responsibilities recognise that finance is not an end in itself but a means to promote investment, innovation, growth and prosperity. 8 9  As quoted in Barton, D (2017) p.11 Big Innovation Centre (2016) p.19 Big Innovation Centre (2016) figure1.2 (p. 23-33)  10  5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  Reforms of the financial system, particularly the Senior Managers Regime and industry-led Codes of Conduct, are helping to embed purpose in financial services including by making culture the responsibility of the CEO and the Chair and tasking industry with devising standards that take into consideration the needs of the system as whole. 11  3. Clarity The third essential quality of leadership is clarity. Clarity starts with the clarity of mind and sound judgment that arise from emotional awareness and control. A good leader is contemplative, meaning they can be present in the moment and find meaning in experience. 12  Leaders will always find themselves facing multiple problems at the same time, but they have to be careful not to bring all those problems with them during every interaction. Part of a leader’s job is to absorb the stress so the rest of the organisation can focus. And they need to remember that each of their (many) meetings each day is probably the most important for the others involved. Clarity also means clarity of thought and communication: the ability to reduce complex problems to their essentials and then communicate them clearly. 13  Say it straight.
And, during the period between March 2008 (when J.P. Morgan Chase and Bear Stearns agreed to merge) and June 2008 (when the merger closed), counterparties of Bear Stearns continued to do business with it because of the J.P. Morgan Chase guarantee. On the other hand, where a third party provides the guarantee, the acquirer enjoys all the benefits if the target’s condition improves and none of the burdens if the target’s condition declines. It is the third party who is on the hook, and in this case that third party would have been the taxpayer. Similarly, from the perspective of the merger target, an unlimited guarantee by the Government could provide the merger target with the means to try to stay independent – its shareholders might vote the merger down with an unlimited Government guarantee. Some observers ask why if we were not able to backstop Lehman, we were able to provide substantial credit to AIG immediately afterwards. The answer is that in the case of AIG, there was sufficient collateral to support the commitment to lend. Unlike the naked guarantee needed to facilitate the merger of Barclays and Lehman, our committed credit to AIG on September 16, 2008, was fully secured by good collateral, namely, AIG’s sound retail insurance businesses. In fact, before any money was disbursed to AIG on September 16, AIG delivered share certificates to the New York Fed that we continue to hold as collateral in our vaults. These shares fully secured every penny we lent to AIG on September 16, 2008.

Thomas C Baxter, Jr: Too big to fail – expectations and impact of extraordinary government intervention and the role of systemic risk in the financial crisis Testimony by Mr Thomas C Baxter, Jr, Executive Vice President and General Counsel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, Washington DC, 1 September 2010. *  *  *  Chairman Angelides, Vice Chairman Thomas, and members of the Commission, thank you for the opportunity to appear before you today. For the past 15 years, I have been privileged to serve as the General Counsel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. I welcome the opportunity to speak to you about the events that brought Lehman Brothers to bankruptcy, events that occurred during 2008 when our Nation was in the midst of the worst financial crisis it has experienced since the Great Depression. During the crisis, Federal Reserve policymakers needed to respond to a series of extraordinary and hugely consequential problems, usually with little time and imperfect information. Today I will be speaking to you about the facts surrounding one of these problems, Lehman Brothers. In 2008, my job was to provide legal advice to Federal Reserve policymakers, and so while I am happy to share with the Commission my recollections of the events that I will describe, I do not want to exaggerate my own importance.
Forward-looking information to base decisions on The work on producing background material for the decision begins with an analysis of the new statistics and new events that have occurred both in the Swedish economy and abroad. Using this as a base, an assessment is made of international economic activity and inflation prospects, and a review of developments in the financial markets. International economic  2  BIS Review 51/2008  activity affects the assessment of Swedish exports, while international price movements affect pricing of the goods and services imported to Sweden. After this a forecast is made of economic activity and inflation in Sweden. The Riksbank uses a combination of assessments made by sector experts and results from several models in its forecasting work. The information is weighed together to form a main forecast for how inflation, the repo rate and the economy as a whole will develop. In addition, various alternative scenarios are produced, which illustrate how the course of events is affected by other assumptions regarding central variables, for instance, productivity growth or international economic activity. Gradually a monetary policy report is pieced together. This is an extensive process, where the Executive Board and officials from the Monetary Policy Department regularly discuss and take a stance on different alternative forecasts. Prior to the monetary policy meetings that do not coincide with the publication of a Monetary Policy Report, the forecasting work is carried out in a similar manner.

Normally, an increase in the repo rate leads to a strengthening of the krona. This is partly because Swedish assets appear more attractive than investments in other currencies. A stronger exchange rate affects inflation directly in that imported goods will become cheaper. Inflation is also dampened indirectly in that foreign goods become cheaper than domestically-produced goods. This leads to a rise in imports and a decline in exports. Lower demand for domestic goods contributes to a reduction in resource utilisation and dampens inflationary pressures. In addition, inflation expectations are important to how companies set prices and to wage formation, and thereby to inflation. If everyone trusts that inflation will remain low, the companies do not need to change their prices so often, and employees do not need to increase their wage demands. This makes it easier for the Riksbank to achieve the inflation target. Some of these mechanisms act on inflation fairly quickly, while others take longer to have an effect. Empirical research indicates that a change in the repo rate has its greatest impact on inflation after one to two years. This means that the Riksbank must base its actions on forecasts of what direction inflation will take. Such assessments are made six times a year, prior to the monetary policy meetings, and they function as a basis for the interest rate decisions.
SPEECH  Demystifying wholesale central bank digital currency Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Symposium on “Payments and Securities Settlement in Europe – today and tomorrow” hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank Frankfurt am Main, 26 September 2022 Let me first thank the Deutsche Bundesbank, and President Nagel in particular, for inviting me to speak at today’s symposium. I would like to use this opportunity to discuss the implications of rapid technological change for our payment systems. I will focus not on people’s daily transactions, but on the infrastructure that underpins the smooth functioning and stability of our financial system. Payments have long been an underestimated aspect of the monetary system, running reliably in the background and allowing the smooth implementation of policies in other areas, which took the spotlight. But a burst of creative digital innovation is now breaking this perception. This is most visible in the area of retail payments. The digitalisation of finance has broadened the available payment options. Fintech start-ups have emerged. Big techs have entered the payments market, capitalising on the networks they operate. The crypto universe has boomed and burst. These disruptions show that we need to preserve – at all times – an anchor of stability for the monetary and payments systems. Safeguarding this anchor is what our digital euro project is about.

But regardless of the technology used by market participants for their wholesale payments and securities transactions, our goal will always be the same: ensuring that central bank money remains the anchor of stability of the monetary system. 1. Distributed ledger technology (DLT) refers to a family of technologies aiming to solve the problem of reaching a consensus between participating entities, which is required for validating data and updating the distributed ledger, without relying on central coordination. 2. Central bank reserves are liabilities of the central bank owned by commercial banks. They are the most liquid and risk-free asset available in the financial system. 3. The TARGET Services offered by the ECB and the national central banks include TARGET2 for wholesale payments, TARGET2-Securities (T2S) for securities settlement, and TARGET Instant Payment Settlement (TIPS) for instant payments. 4. Panetta, F. (2021), “Central bank digital currencies: a monetary anchor for digital innovation”, speech at the Elcano Royal Institute, Madrid, 5 November. 5. Principle 9 of the Principles for financial market infrastructures, issued by the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures and the Technical Committee of the International Organization of Securities Commissions states that “a financial market infrastructure should conduct its money settlements in central bank money, where practical and available”. 6. Post-trade services are the activities (clearing, settlement, custody, asset servicing and reporting) that take place once a trade has been realised, in order to transfer the ownership of the security from the buyer to the seller against the corresponding payment. 7.
This can include a variety of measures, such as higher capital and liquidity requirements, more intense supervision, concentration limits, etc. Work is still under way on defining such possible measures. The FSB is expected to provide recommendations to the G20 summit of November in Seoul. An alternative way to make banks internalise the externalities they pose on the financial system is through a bank levy. A levy responds more directly to the need to raise a contribution from the financial sector in order to pay for the cost of past or future financial crises, depending on whether the levy is imposed ex-post or ex-ante. For instance, the proceeds raised by a levy can be destined to finance a dedicated fund to be activated in the future for the orderly winding down of distressed banks. The EU Commission is moving forward in this area, with the aim of establishing a common framework for a levy in the EU member states. The IMF is also finalising a report on this topic for the G20 summit later this  BIS Review 87/2010  5  month in Toronto. In my view the discussion should be properly framed in the overall reform of the prudential framework, including the quantitative impact assessment of the various initiatives I mentioned earlier. Such a careful assessment is warranted, inter alia, to avoid imposing an undue burden on the banking sector and, ultimately, hamper the flow of credit to the real economy.

In the pursuit of this objective, we also try to draw as much as possible from synergies with existing work and resources both within the ECB and the ESCB, as well as at the supervisory authorities. I conclude on this point that the establishment of ESRB will be a watershed event in developing a macro-prudential framework for Europe. Having said that, I should also say that the ESRB does not have an easy mission and it certainly faces many challenges. Macroprudential supervision is relatively new, which implies that a well-established framework with a clear operational objective, as we know for monetary policy, must yet be set in place. The ESRB will therefore have to develop its own thinking and strategy, and will probably have to advance in a pragmatic way. The interplay with the micro-prudential function will be crucial, not only because the ESRB will have to rely to a large extent on micro-prudential supervisors for the information and the data, but also because a number of the tools that can be expected to address potential weaknesses in the financial system are of a micro-prudential nature. In that respect, I should recall that the ESRB will not have any binding powers but will have to rely on moral suasion and peer pressure for the follow-up to its risk warnings and recommendations. And finally the ESRB will have to strive for effectiveness and efficiency in the pursuit of its tasks, given its relatively wide composition (over 60 members).