samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  Chart 1: Close correlation pre-crisis between output growth and policy  60  3 month moving average, bps 50 Combined CIPS output survey (LHS) 25  55  0  50  -25  45  -50  40  -75  3 month moving average, balance 65  Average MPC vote, including QE (RHS)  35 30 1998  -100 -125  2000  2002  2004  2006  2008  2010  2012  2014  2016  2018  Sources: IHS Markit, ONS and Bank calculations. Notes: Combined CIPS output survey is a weighted average of the Markit/CIPS PMIs for services, manufacturing and construction. Average MPC vote includes both decisions on Bank Rate and QE, with every extra £ of asset purchases (gilts and corporate bonds) treated as equivalent to a 25bp cut in Bank Rate (see Joyce, Tong and Woods, 2011). Five years ago, the MPC recognised that past should not be prologue. The MPC was pretty certain there was a large amount of slack, although it had questions over how much productive capacity had been destroyed following the crisis; how quickly productivity growth would recover; and whether labour supply would change in the wake of reforms and a heavy burden of household debt. Such uncertainties about supply meant that knowing what was happening to demand was no longer sufficient for gauging the appropriate policy response.

Ladies and gentlemen, The significant importance of “credit reporting” is widely recognized today, particularly in assessing borrowers’ credit risk, reducing loan defaults and expanding access to bank financing. Experience has shown that countries with credit bureaus have been able to address the problem of “asymmetric information” and substantially improve the quality of credit institutions’ portfolio. However, the recent crisis has highlighted the limited knowledge of counterparties’ real health and revealed the pressing need for more granular, interconnected and flexible statistics. For central banks and supervisors, this need is creating a new paradigm for monitoring and evaluating financial stability, based on an integrated infrastructure of credit information sharing. This infrastructure is based on two core pillars:    the first is a “credit bureau” system that helps credit institutions to assess risks; and the second is a “central credit registry” managed by central banks for their institutional functions. Ladies and gentlemen, Let me give you a brief overview of the steps that Bank Al-Maghrib has undertaken over the last ten years to develop its financial information system and enhance its convergence towards international standards. In close cooperation with the IFC, the Bank put into operation in 2009, under the first pillar, the 1st Credit Bureau. This was a decisive step towards the establishment of a modern and state-ofthe-art credit reporting infrastructure. Indeed, the credit bureau has become an essential tool for lending decisions for individuals, businesses and micro-credit associations.
What I would like to do here is to share with you our views on the following three issues that have profound impact on the way in which the banking industry, including that in Hong Kong, should structure itself:    Universal Banking vs. Segregated Banking    Universal Banking vs. Narrow Banking    Branch vs. Subsidiary Operations. Universal banking vs. segregated banking 2. First let me talk about “universal banking”, which may mean different things to different people. By “universal banking” I refer to a business model in which banks are allowed to provide a wide range of banking and other financial services to their customers, whether they are mass retail, high net-worth, SMEs or large corporates. In this connection, it may be appropriate to regard a universal bank as a one-stop financial supermarket. 3. Hong Kong has a long tradition of this type of universal banking. Notwithstanding the experiences of the recent Global Financial Crisis and the ongoing debate and scepticism in some jurisdictions, we continue to see merit in the model of universal banking. Why? Let me explain. 4. First of all, universal banking in the form of a one-stop financial supermarket provides what the customers need to meet their rising demand for investments in a wide range of financial and wealth management products. These customers can enjoy the convenience of a one-stop service, ranging from simple products such as equities, unit trusts, insurance, gold etc. to the more complex derivative or structured products that meet their investment needs.

Willem F Duisenberg: The international role of the euro  Speech by Dr Willem F Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, on the occasion of the 2000 Spruce Meadows Round Table, held in Calgary, on 8 September 2000. *  *  *  Let me first thank the organisers of this conference for having invited me to share some thoughts with you on the international role of the euro. The euro was successfully launched 20 months ago as the single currency of 11 Member States of the European Union (EU) - known as the “euro area”. On 1 January 1999 these Member States transferred their monetary sovereignty to a new supranational institution, the European Central Bank (ECB). Since then, the Eurosystem - composed of the ECB and the national central banks (NCBs) of the 11 countries that have adopted the euro - has been in charge of the euro area single monetary policy and related functions, such as foreign reserve management and operations and payment systems oversight. The euro has brought about fundamental changes to the economic and financial environment in the euro area and beyond. By lowering transaction costs and enhancing price transparency, the single currency represents a major contribution to fostering competition and efficiency in goods and financial markets across the euro area. As such, the introduction of the euro represents a quantum leap towards completing a fully integrated Single Market in the EU and lays a solid basis for the improvement in the living standards of European citizens.
The performance of a clearly defined task - maintaining price stability in a way that is good for the union as a whole will be a heavy responsibility for each member of the Governing Council; in this sense they are all in the same boat. There are also many signs that power will gradually shift towards the centre and this in turn will affect recruitment. My guess is that the ECB will be able to attract personnel who are qualified, which in contexts like this is more important than their number. Fiscal policy Fiscal policy is a national concern but the national room to manoeuvre is conditioned by various EU regulations. The Treaty has general provisions to the effect that economic policy is to contribute to the achievement of Community objectives in accordance with BIS Review 50/1998  -4-  the principle of an open market economy with free competition. The Member States are to regard their economic policies as a matter of common concern and are explicitly required to coordinate them but the decisions are to be made on a national level. Then there are more specific agreements on matters like the scale of rates for value-added tax, government subsidies and rules for public procurement. These agreements, which are a limited constraint on the construction of taxes and public spending, have been concluded mainly for purposes other than stabilisation policy - to promote competition and establish a single market for capital, goods, services and labour.

A number of processes, such as those concerning government finances, are being modified. But this is accompanied by an increased need to discuss issues raised by the fact of monetary union. Now that the countries which will be participating initially in monetary union have been singled out, moreover, an informal group - the Euro 11 Group - is being set up for discussions among the ministers of finance and economy in the euro area. The idea is that this group will concentrate on matters that concern just the participating countries and cater to the greater need for dialogue and cooperation that they perceive in connection with the inception of monetary union. However, this is not a decision-making body and all matters considered by Euro 11 are prepared by the Monetary Committee, in which all fifteen EU Member States are represented. The crucial institutional change is, of course, that as of next year the conduct of monetary policy will be fully centralised. The Treaty explicitly states that the ECB is not to be swayed by political considerations; its task is to concentrate on monetary policy. But naturally a dialogue will be needed with the governments in the EU and euro areas, in the first place with the ministers of finance and economy. The Treaty actually provides for this in that the Ecofin president may participate in meetings of the ECB Governing Council and even submit motions. Moreover, representatives of the NCBs and finance ministries will continue to meet in the Economic and Financial Committee.
Jacqueline Loh: Integrating Asia’s capital markets Keynote address by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the ASIFMA (Asia Securities Industry and Financial Markets) Annual Conference 2014 “Developing Asia’s Capital Market”, Singapore, 5 November 2014. *  *  *  Mark Austen – CEO, ASIFMA Ashley Alder – CEO, Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and my fellow keynote speaker Fellow regulators and central bankers Distinguished guests Ladies and gentlemen 1. It is my pleasure to join you this afternoon at the ASIFMA annual conference held in Singapore. 2. We have a very ambitious agenda ahead of us. The title of the conference, “Developing Asia’s Capital Markets”, certainly does not do full justice to the breadth of topics covered in the breakout sessions and roundtable discussions over these two days. These topics are very wide ranging indeed, from traditional equity and debt markets, to foreign exchange, investment banking, fund management, financing of Asia’s infrastructure needs, market infrastructures; as well as specific geographic markets China and India. Each segment not only aims to address opportunities and challenges in each market or asset class, but also opportunities and challenges across markets and asset classes. 3. Accordingly, I will focus my remarks on integrating Asia’s capital markets as a natural pairing to the conference theme on developing Asia’s capital markets. I. Economic dynamism and wealth creation in Asia  4.

If we are to perform, we need to build in ourselves, the ability and the courage to meet with obstructions and move forward, in the face of challenges. Otherwise, our performance would not be realized. Fourth, Thithi Dhathu. That is, stay firm in the intended path. Even in the midst of opposition or challenges, we have to develop the ability to be focused and move with a clear vision and determination. We should not be distracted. We should not dilute the impact of our performance. 2  BIS Review 10/2008  Fifth, is the Thawara Dhathu. That is, the action should convey a strong stable message of commitment and dedication. Such a strong signal is often infectious and when the leader shows such firm commitment, performance often improves. Sixth, Upakkama Dhathu. That is, being wise to cleverly steer the path and induce others to also support the performance of the particular action. That is not easy, but it is vital. Inducing all within the team to move towards a single goal is the best assurance of success. We are today living and working in an unforgiving world. In this unforgiving world, the business sector in which we operate is intolerant of failure. Failure or even suggestion of failure invokes harsh penalties and abrupt ends to promising careers. We show how many important heads rolled after the “sub-prime” issue hit the market. However high and mighty a person may be, failure or non-performance or sub-performance is not forgiven. All past victories are erased with a single failure.
Uniformly, every institution that has engaged in internal testing also has indicated that this process indeed located further Year 2000 problems that needed repair. Thus, in spite of extensive repair efforts, some problems were not isolated until internal future date tests were performed. This underscores why every organization must build in a program of rigorous internal testing as a part of its Year 2000 project schedule, even for applications designed to be Year 2000 compliant. Moreover, the internal testing process cannot wait until the last minute. Experience has shown that testing programs overall typically consume over 50% of the resources allocated to Year 2000 projects. External tests are conducted by an institution to assess the risks in repaired and internally tested systems where they interface with systems of other institutions. External tests are particularly important where the interface is proprietary or specific to the particular business activity and the dependency on the external interface is critical. For the most critical systems, in particular payment and settlement systems, external testing must be done, and should be done carefully. External tests can take a variety of forms. Point-to-point tests verify the ability of an institution to transmit and receive data with another entity. End-to-end tests take this one step further and verify the ability of an institution originating a transaction to transmit test data to a recipient through an intermediary which correctly performs business functions using that data. End-to-end tests are particularly appropriate for real-time, interactive applications.

In conclusion, I hope this description has given you a sense of the PRA’s intended approach to supervising insurers, and some of the big issues that we see ahead. We have grown all too accustomed to focusing heavily on banks, reflecting their capacity for damaging spillovers and externalities. Whether, or how much, insurers share some of these characteristics is the subject of extensive debate. I am yet to be persuaded that the similarities of insurers and banks are more important that the differences. But I am persuaded that insurance is a critical financial service provided by firms that have considerable complexity in terms of financial risks. This alone demonstrates why we care about the prudential supervision of insurers. I should stress that we are looking forward to the challenge. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7
We want to assess to what extent and under what conditions it could improve the efficiency and security of settlement of financial assets transactions, while preserving the fundamental role of central bank money in the smooth and safe execution of these transactions. The Banque de France also takes an active part in the work conducted by the Eurosystem under the aegis of the ECB in relation to a digital retail euro. The challenge is to assess whether and how a digital central bank euro is needed. As we do when analysing market developments, our analysis encompasses all the potential impacts of such innovation. We need to ensure that we 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  do not compromise more general public objectives such as monetary and financial stability, organise coexistence with other forms of public money and commercial banks, and promote innovation and efficiency in the financial system. Naturally, our experiment is not limited to questions of digital central bank money. As part of our observation on the development of crypto-assets, we plan to participate in market experiments to help define the role of supervisors in this ecosystem. I’ll stop there to give way to the two round tables of this webinar. The two themes chosen are: “Crypto-assets, risks and regulation” and “Crypto-assets, what will become a standard?”. They seem to me to be two very complementary ways of addressing the issues that I have highlighted. I am sure that the cross-section of American and European views will add to the debate.

Denis Beau: What will shape the future of crypto-assets? Opening address by Mr Denis Beau, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of France, at the Banque de France webinar, 15 June 2021. * * * Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen, Crypto-assets is a stimulating topic for a Central Banker and one that cannot leave him indifferent! It should be remembered that, historically, crypto-assets have been designed to be issued in a decentralised manner, with the ambition to replace legal currencies: the very denial of the Central Banker’s functions. Clearly, the initial objective was not achieved. So far, crypto-assets have proven to be much less efficient than our traditional currencies, for different reasons, starting with price volatility, transaction costs and delays, which make them difficult to use as a means of payment, not to mention the risks they expose their users and service providers. However, we cannot ignore the potential for innovation of crypto-assets and their underlying technology, the technique of distributed ledgers or blockchain. Already in 2017, with the Madre project, the Banque de France was one of the first central banks in the world to use this blockchain technology for an interbank use case. At the rate of innovation, it is a long history, but since then we have been closely monitoring the development of this vibrant blockchain and crypto-assets ecosystem, the opportunities it creates and the risks it carries.
As regards microprudential supervision, the Report proposes the creation of a European Financial Supervision System. Under this system, the current Level 3 Committees for banking, insurance and securities would be transformed into three European supervisory authorities with the power to take binding decisions in certain fields. As to macroprudential supervision, the creation of a European Systemic Risk Board was proposed. Its main purpose would be to detect general risks, apprising the competent European authorities thereof, where pertinent, so they might take the appropriate decisions. These are some of the initial steps of a process which will no doubt be long, but which will profoundly affect the systems of each and every European country. It is thus important that Spain should participate actively in the work of these international fora. In this respect, it is most satisfying that Spain has been welcomed as a member of the Financial Stability Board,  BIS Review79/2009  9  the successor of the Financial Stability Forum created in 1999, in which we had not hitherto participated. To be sure, the Banco de España’s experience in the design and implementation of a regulatory and supervisory system that has proven most effective during this crisis has been one of the factors that have helped Spain merit this position. And here I shall conclude, though not without first thanking the Governing Council, the Executive Commission, the Directors General and all our staff for their work this year.

The recovery should also be resilient to potential slowdown in world economic growth given that the initial pick up this year is mostly driven by domestic demand while growth momentum next year mostly reflects the continued rebound in tourists from abroad, which tend not to be sensitive to global economic activity. Bilateral inbound tourist flows in the past are relatively resilient to home economic conditions. This reflected the fact that there is a lot of pent-up demand and Thailand is a cost-effective value for money destination. 2. Balance of risk has tilted towards inflation Headline inflation is expected to peak in Q3/22 and gradually return to target range next year, but what’s concerning is that core inflation is increasing. a. Headline inflation is uncomfortably high and above the target range. It has been around 7.6% in June and July, the highest in 14 years. The rise of headline inflation has been supply-side driven and largely concentrated in food and energy-related categories. There has not been any sign of demandside pressure unlike in the US and UK. However, the risks are titled to the upside given possibilities of broader and faster cost pass-through and rising demand pressures as the economy gains strength. b. Core inflation has continued increasing for 4 consecutive months mainly due to faster cost passthrough such as from raw foods to prepared food prices. This is a sign or an indication that inflation engine might get fully started.
Trade with the Baltic countries, which used to be minimal, has increased sharply. Petroleum wealth and the krone exchange rate Let me conclude by referring to an analysis that can shed light on long-term developments in the real krone exchange rate. 6  BIS Review 25/2004  In the long term, the exchange rate tends to adjust so that there will be a balance both in the domestic economy and balance in the current account. Petroleum wealth, defined as the value of oil and gas under the seabed and the value of the Government Petroleum Fund, provides the basis for substantial foreign exchange revenues in the years ahead. These revenues will decline as the economy grows. The share of imports that can be financed by foreign exchange revenues from petroleum wealth will be reduced. Export earnings other than petroleum revenues will then be necessary. A substantial improvement in competitiveness will be required over time. Norway’s history as an oil nation goes back to the end of the 1960s. Rough estimates suggest that a real exchange rate that ensures balance in the balance of payments when petroleum wealth no longer has the same significant role in the economy is more in line with the real exchange rate prevailing in Norway prior to the discovery of oil. This is shown in the chart, where the real exchange rate in 60 years’ time, after a sharp appreciation while we phase in petroleum wealth into the economy, will have reverted to the level prevailing before petroleum extraction began.

Instances of “follow-the-leader” behaviour occur not just in bullish stockmarkets but also in the currency market when many countries with different conditions are lumped together in a general assessment. Market players must assess each country separately. Central bank interventions under certain circumstances are uncommon with a flexible exchange rate regime but they do occur. I cannot exclude the possibility of the Riksbank intervening again if this were to be called for. Growth in the industrialised countries may thus be affected by the real economic crisis which has hit the emerging markets and resulted in a sharp fall in output there. The magnitude of such an effect will be highly dependent on confidence - confidence among households and firms so that they are prone to consume and invest, confidence among banks so that they are prone to provide credit. The Riksbank’s appraisal In the Riksbank’s most recent Inflation Report we counted on an OECD area growth rate of around 2 per cent in the years ahead. It should be borne in mind that this figure represented the latest in a series of downward revisions over the past twelve months. Since the publication of the September Report, our assessment of tendencies in the rest of the world has not changed. Considering the mechanisms to which I have just referred, however, it is not surprising that our Report highlighted the risks associated with the external situation. This situation is unusually difficult to evaluate and has to be followed closely.