samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
First of all, I would like to present a theoretical outline of how monetary policy works and then indicate 1 some relevant and realistic monetary policy objectives. I will then discuss and assess Norwegian monetary policy on this basis, including the trade-offs we face in economic policy. It is important to note that it is a question of trade-offs. We simply cannot have everything we want. 2a. How does monetary policy influence the economy? Monetary policy affects the economy through several channels, together referred to as the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. In a closed economy, monetary policy mainly works by influencing demand through changes in the real interest rate. In an open economy, monetary policy also works through changes in the exchange rate. Let us make a stylised review of what happens if the central bank raises the key interest rate. In the short and medium term, prices are relatively rigid. As a result, the short and longer real rates of interest also tend to increase when the nominal interest rate is raised. In addition, there is both a nominal and a real appreciation of the exchange rate. 1  The presentation is largely based on Svensson, Lars E.O. (2002): ‘Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization’, mimeo. Princeton University  BIS Review 49/2002  1  •  The direct exchange rate channel to inflation An appreciation will reduce prices for imported goods measured in krone terms.

The achievements of the December agreement must resolutely be built upon: regarding the Banking Union, a common backstop that would be available rapidly and remain in place for a sufficiently long period is an essential element, even more than the deposit insurance scheme, to ensure that the single resolution mechanism is solid and effective. The Capital Markets Union, on which everyone agrees in principle, must finally forge ahead to better channel our EUR 350 billion private savings surplus towards the concrete needs of our economy: digital innovation, the energy transition and SMEs’ capital. Finally, the progress achieved on the public solidarity mechanisms – preventive intervention of the European Stability Mechanism, fiscal capacity – is a promising prospect but it needs to be translated into action. 2 – My second wish is for financial stability 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  I would first like to acknowledge the soundness of our financial institutions. In June 2018, the Tier 1 capital ratio of the main French banks stood at 13.5%, i.e. 7.7% higher than in 2008. The liquidity situation has improved, with an average LCR of 127%. The share of non-performing loans has continued to decline to stand at 3.1% in June 2018, i.e. close to the pre-crisis level, compared with a European average of 3.6%. The same holds true for insurers. Their capitalisation is good, and their solvency has improved, with the average coverage ratio of the major insurers rising by 9 percentage points to reach 241%.
Indeed, some central banks have adopted interest rate guidance announcements covering the next two years. It is likely that monetary policy will, for some time, make use of a diversity of instruments. Macro-prudential measures will interact with monetary policies in a complex way. In that context, it is therefore all the more important to keep clarity of purpose and stick to two crucial features inherited from the pre-crisis consensus: the focus on price stability and, its corollary, central bank independence. There should be no ambiguity about what central banks are trying to achieve. The more non-conventional their actions, the less obscurity there should be as to their ultimate purpose. Non-conventional measures, like any others, can only achieve their objectives if inflation expectations are solidly and clearly anchored. From that point of view, calls by some economists and market participants for a temporary relaxation of price stability objectives  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  are, in my view, totally misguided. I find it significant, on the contrary, that two major central banks have recently decided to quantify their price stability objectives and enhance their communication accordingly. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

There are strong indications that this option does not exist […] Personally, I am no longer in doubt that controlling inflation is essential to achieving other social objectives.” Norway adopted a nominal anchor when the devaluation policy was abandoned in 1986. We adopted an inflation target in the spring of 2001. Section 1, first paragraph, reads: “Monetary policy shall be aimed at stability in the Norwegian krone’s national and international value, contributing to stable expectations concerning exchange rate  1  Keynes, J. M., (1923) “Notes for Lecture to the National Liberal Club”, reprinted in “Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes”, Vol. XIX, Macmillian, London, 1981. 2  A price level target means that inflation that is too high for a period must be counteracted by negative inflation in the subseqent period. An inflation target, on the other hand, permits “base drift”, which means that prices do not have to return to a specific level. 3  See discussion in Bjerve, P. J. (1981) “Kva hende I Norge i 1970-åra- konjunkturpolitisk?”, Sosialøkonomen no. 5 1981, pp 10-21. 4  Schreiner, P. (1982) “Er Ola Nordmann smart nok? Den fulle sysselsetningen i fare!”, Universitetsforlaget. BIS Review 6/2004  1  developments. At the same time, monetary policy shall underpin fiscal policy by contributing to stable developments in output and employment. Norges Bank is responsible for the implementation of monetary policy. Norges Bank’s implementation of monetary policy shall, in accordance with the first paragraph, be oriented towards low and stable inflation.
BIS Review 106/2009  7  Figure 6  Growth in nitrates' output value and real GDP  (percentage) 100%  25%  80%  15%  60% 40%  5%  20% -5%  0% -20%  -15%  -40% -60%  1880  1885  1890  1895  1900  1905  1910  1915  Growth in nitrates' output value in US dollars  1920  1925  1930  -25%  GDP growth  Source: Braun, Braun, Briones, and Díaz (2000). Figure 7  Growth in copper's output value and real GDP  (percentage)  25%  100% 80%  15%  60% 40%  5%  20%  -5%  0%  -15%  -20% -40%  1956  1961  1966  1971  1976  Growth in copper's output value in US dollars  1981  1986  1991  1996  2001  -25%  2006  GDP growth  Sources: Braun, Braun, Briones, and Díaz (2000); Ministry of Mining; Central Bank of Chile.

There are those who claim that natural resources are bad for a country’s development. They find that the abundance of natural resources has been associated with a poor growth performance. This finding leads them to the conclusion – a wrong one in my view – that natural resources are hazardous to a country’s development. As I will be asserting over this presentation, natural resources are a blessing, but their abundance in a scenario of institutional and economic weakness may turn it into a curse. I will also comment that, in the case of Chile, solid bases have been in place to take advantage of the copper industry, very different from what occurred with nitrate in the early twentieth century. I will begin with a review of the international evidence on the relationship between natural resources and growth, to then focus on Chile’s specific case and the relationship between abundance in our mining resources and our development. Then I will talk briefly about the current economic scenario and how copper price fluctuations are no longer a source of instability, as used to be the case in the past or still is in some large commodity exporters. This is attributed to the significant advances we have made in our foreign exchange, fiscal, and monetary policies. The importance of this cannot be overemphasized, because said progress in macroeconomic policies has allowed us to implement unprecedented expansionary policies that should help Chile to overcome successfully the international crisis that hit the world at large in recent months.
Systemic financial events with spillovers to the real economy have been a persistent feature of the economic environment, and both financial market participants and policymakers have grappled with the challenge of how to reduce their incidence and to minimize their severity, longevity and impact on the broader economy. There is a lot we do not understand about these challenges, but we know more today than we once did. In the case of the crises of the late 1990s, despite the broad-based nature of the financial market turmoil, in countries where capital cushions in the financial sector were strong relative to risk, where there was a greater diversity of institutions in the financial system to absorb the losses, and where monetary authorities were in a position to provide liquidity to restore confidence, the financial and macroeconomic impact of the crises was relatively modest. Where those conditions did not exist, the damage was acute. The U.S. economy appears to have become more resilient to financial shocks. Over the past two decades, the U.S. economy has experienced several episodes of significant financial market strain. These episodes were associated with spikes in risk perception and significant market volatility within financial markets, but none proved exceptionally damaging in terms of the overall macroeconomic impact. The mild impact of these episodes on the real economy contrasts with financial events such as the “credit crunch” that exacerbated the 1990-91 recession.

Anita Angelovska-Bezoska: Statistics – challenging and fundamental issues for central bankers Speech by Ms Anita Angelovska-Bezoska, Vice-Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the joint National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia-ECB seminar on statistics for participants from the region, Skopje, 2–5 October 2013. *  *  *  Dear guests, dear colleagues, On behalf of the NBRM, let me express my warm gratitude to the ECB for co-organizing the event and to all participants for their preparedness to share their experiences, identify the main strengths and weaknesses and pinpoint the main challenges in their own work field. It gives me a great pleasure to welcome you at today’s joint event, which I am sure will provide an excellent platform to discuss statistics, as one of the most challenging and fundamental issues for central bankers and policy makers, in general. By now, we are all aware of the fact that timely, reliable and relevant data are sine qua non for a good policy making. The higher the quality of statistics, the larger the probability for timely and proper decisions. The recent “great recession” has brought to the fore many deficiencies in the fundamentals of the global economy, in the architecture of the global financial system, in the set-up of the policy decision making process, but also in the area of statistics which is one of the main ingredients for a good economic analysis and policy making.
Median household income was roughly $ in 2009, moderately above the statewide median and well above the nation’s. Not surprisingly, then, the poverty rate is lower than the U.S. average – 11 percent versus 14 percent nationally.   Your residents are highly educated. Educational attainment – a critically important driver of economic activity – is also well above the national average. A third of adults who live in the Albany area hold college degrees. One of Albany’s key strengths is its higher education industry. The colleges and universities in the capital region help stabilize the local economy during downturns and recoveries. Indeed, the private education sector continually added jobs before, during, and after the  3  Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, August 2011. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Great Recession, both nationally and locally. For example, the University at Albany has taken a lead role in shaping the next generation of financial professionals and regulators through its pioneering curriculums. From my perspective at the Fed, a particularly important and timely example is the University’s innovative National Science Foundation-supported program for instruction and research in financial market regulation. Research conducted by the New York Fed has shown that colleges and universities can help build the skills and education of their region’s workforce, which is critical to an area’s ultimate economic success.4 They do this in two ways. Most directly, colleges and universities support an educated workforce by producing new college graduates, some of whom will stay and work in the area.

The University at Albany clearly plays this role in the capital area. Perhaps equally important in terms of promoting local economic growth, colleges and universities can play a key role in creating jobs for skilled workers in local businesses. Colleges and universities conduct research and development that can have “spillover effects” into the local economy. Businesses in the region can take advantage of being close to these innovative activities and facilities to develop new products and technologies. This can also help draw new companies to the region to access university resources. Thus, successful industry–higher education partnerships can provide a quite a boost for a region’s economy. The local nanotech sector provides an excellent example of this type of partnership at work. During my visit to the University’s College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering this afternoon I look forward to seeing the facilities and hearing more about the Center’s plans to lead the way in global nanotech research. More broadly, I understand that our audience today includes several members of the Regional Economic Advisory Council – including the University at Albany’s president, George Philip and Michael Castellana, the co-chair of the Council – who are working to advance such partnerships and the outlook for the region. Going forward, the industry–higher education partnerships taking place here will be increasingly important. I expect the strong foundation already in place will help maintain the economic vitality of the capital region.
The scheme, which is to be launched later this year, will allow Hong Kong and international investors to invest in shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange through Hong Kong. At the same time, Mainland investors can invest in shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange through Shanghai. This unprecedented bridge linking the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets will create an additional channel for cross-border portfolio investment flows using RMB. Given all these relaxations and the new schemes permitting cross-border flows of RMB, I think there is ample policy headroom for the offshore RMB markets to develop and flourish. At the same time, we have seen the emergence of the necessary financial infrastructure, not just in Hong Kong but also in many offshore centres, that would facilitate efficient and safe clearing and settlement of RMB transactions in the offshore markets. 7. As I said earlier, the pace of the development of offshore RMB business and markets also crucially depends on the third factor, that is the role that the private sector can and should play in the process. It is not likely that a market can thrive just with policy headroom and financial infrastructure. Banks and other financial institutions must develop their capability to satisfy their customers who have a need or an interest in using RMB. Trading companies need trade finance in RMB. Corporates investing in China need direct or indirect financing in RMB and asset owners need a variety of RMB financial products.

In our Sydney roadshow, I was particularly impressed by the keen interest and high level of curiosity of the Australian audience, who wanted to understand more what RMB internationalisation was all about and what it meant for them as corporates with trading and investment links with China. We were then at an early stage of this long and exciting journey of RMB internationalisation. At that time, the cross-border RMB trade settlement scheme was still a “pilot” and only covered selected provinces in the Mainland. RMB trade settlement handled by banks in Hong Kong was only some RMB100 billion a month, which is less than one-fifth of the RMB600 billion registered in March this year. 3. The offshore RMB market in Hong Kong has indeed achieved phenomenal progress in the past three years. Hong Kong’s RMB real time gross settlement system registered an average daily turnover of close to RMB700 billion in April this year, which is about twelve times the level when I visited Sydney in 2011. In the foreign exchange market – another area where activities have picked up sharply – we are seeing an average turnover of RMB spot and forward transactions of some $ billion to $ billion equivalent every day. I also note that remarkable developments have been achieved in Australia, with recent data suggesting that Australia’s RMB payments value increased by close to 2.5 times year on year.
Over the latest period, we needed to take greater account of the implications of the credit-market revolution, the emergence of major new financing markets, and declining credit and liquidity spreads. What this amounts to is that, in assessing the outlook for demand and inflation, monetary policymakers need routinely to take a greater interest in financial markets and their workings, over and above looking at asset prices as an input to wealth and the cost of capital. This means trying to make sense of risk premia and liquidity premia. 5 Not easy, but it needs to be done. And it will be important soon if there is a persistent rise in the margin that banks charge for credit over and above the risk-free rate. It might plausibly rise due to a higher cost of funds to banks themselves, a heightened assessment of risk of borrower default, or more demanding future regulatory requirements. Indeed, not a few bankers have argued in recent months that the international authorities should temper their regulatory reforms due to the prospect of higher credit costs for households and firms. But there may be offsetting factors. If in the steady-state equilibrium credit spreads were to be higher, then other things being equal there might be a lower equilibrium risk-free interest rate. 6 In plain language, the Bank’s policy rate might on average conceivably be lower in future than during the Committee’s first decade. We shall have to wait and see.

In setting a course for nominal demand, we are usually trying to stabilise inflation in line with our target over a horizon of 2–3 years. Of course we care about longer horizons. As a number of us have argued over the years, 13 that is nicely captured by approximating our objective with a so-called quadratic loss function that gives weight to deviations of inflation from target and deviations of the level of output from its sustainable course. In that set up, the policymaker cares about future volatility (or uncertainty) about the inflation rate and the “output gap”. Sizeable imbalances create precisely that uncertainty, threaten precisely such volatility. All very useful as an abstract framework for thinking about policy. The trouble is that there is not a policymaker anywhere who has much of a clue about how to operationalise it in actual interest rate decisions. This matters because not all imbalances are associated with credit booms that pose a threat to financial stability. The development of a set of macroprudential tools would not be sufficient to insulate our economies from imbalances. But I do believe that it is necessary.
The Asian Leadership Index therefore aims to contribute towards a greater understanding of “what do business leaders in Asia need to do to get more energy and commitment from their most important followers?” As part of the study, selected senior leaders and emerging leaders in companies operating in Asia were asked to describe what their leaders need to do for them as professionals if they were to participate wholeheartedly with that leader, and be fully invested in their organizations over the longer term. They also indicate what they see as missing from the leaders to whom they report. As leadership is about being able to deliver results even in the most challenging of environment, it is therefore also about generating the drive and energy in the organisation, and thus creating an environment in which the best talent will gravitate to, and contribute with the same energy and drive. In an international environment in which high quality talent is scarce, this aspect of the expectations of leadership becomes important. In essence, leaders need to be supported by high powered and committed teams. The expectations of talent is however not only rapidly evolving but may differ when contextualised to different parts of the world. This study undertaken by ICLIF provides insights on such expectations of leaders in Asia and on the areas that need to be addressed if sustainable impact and influence is to be achieved. What then are the findings of the study?

I will leave this for the presentation by Kate Sweetman, the main author of this study. Broadly, the Asian Leadership Index demystifies that attributes leaders in Asia must develop if they are to engage the people they lead. The Asian Leadership Index does not propose a new leadership model. Rather, it identifies a number of areas for behavioural change that are needed based on the attributes that respondents indicated are currently missing in their leaders, reinforced with suggestions on how leaders might move forward with greater influence and impact. In conducting this research, it is hoped that it generates thinking on these leadership issues and contribute towards the development of the new generation of effective leaders in Asia. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1