The rapid progress of information technology in recent years has brought new risk measurement models to aid in the measurement of market risk. The most widely accepted of these is the ”Value-at-Risk” model, called ”VaR” for short. VaR is the maximum loss that can occur in the value of a portfolio having a certain investment horizon under a certain probability. Since it is a simple and clear-cut concept, the VaR model is widely used for measuring market risk. It permits comparison of the market risk of different investment instruments, so that portfolio performance can be evaluated in terms of the risk undertaken. Especially for measuring  market risk to determine capital adequacy, this model has become a necessity in many countries and financial institutions. Another method widely used for measuring market risk is ”Scenario Analysis”. Scenario Analysis is a technique used to see how the value of a portfolio would be affected by various probable changes in market conditions. A last widely used method for measuring risk is the ”Stress Test” method. The Stress Test is used to estimate how the value of a portfolio would be affected by large, unexpected fluctuations in the markets, such as have been observed during the global crisis which is still with us. Though similar to Scenario Analysis, the Stress Test mainly aims to predict the maximum value that would be lost by a portfolio under certain extraordinary market conditions. The success of this method depends on successfully predicting market conditions.

Mr. Erçel discusses financial risk and its management Address by the Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Mr. Gazi Erçel, at the Sixth Annual Global Finance Conference, Bilgi University, Istanbul, on 8 April, 1999 _________________________________________________________________________ $ University. Today I like to discuss financial risk and its management which are one of the hot topics in the international financial circles. The 1980s and 1990s witnessed a major transformation in the international financial markets. The advent of more complex and dynamic transactions have substantially increased uncertainties in the marketplace, and, in today’s environment, dominated by a dynamic, aggressive financial service industry, market participants are exposed to greater financial risks than before. Of course, there are several reasons for these changes. The first reason is the globalization of the international markets. Markets all over the world are becoming consolidated into a vast world market as obstacles to the free movement of capital are gradually being removed. This can be seen in the present global crisis, which arose because problems occurring in one region of the world promptly made themselves felt by markets and investors in other regions. Another reason is that the international markets have become much more volatile. Volatility, which means the fluctuation of market prices and ratios, is one of the principal sources of financial risk. When market volatility increases, market participants are exposed to greater uncertainty--and greater risk. Still another change of conditions in the international markets is the appearance of new forms of investment with very complex structures.