samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Our assessment is that the probability of this type of scenario is small at present, but that if it were to occur, the negative effects on the economy would be substantial. Given our inflation forecast and after taking into account other factors, the Executive Board’s assessment is that it is reasonable to continue gradually raising the interest rate. At the same time, it is important to emphasise that we are easing up on the accelerator, not putting on the brakes. Monetary policy is still expansionary, which is clear from a historical comparison of repo rate levels (diagram 4). Even in an international comparison, it is clear that Sweden’s key rate is still very low. The link between interest rate decisions, house prices and household debts There have recently been claims that the Riksbank’s decision to raise the repo rate was largely because we have been concerned over house prices and increased household indebtedness. This is not the case. I would like to argue that the decisions to raise the interest rate now and in January are primarily justified on the traditional basis of inflation prospects two years ahead. Inflation has been assessed as being close to the target level a couple of years ahead, given gradual increases in the repo rate. We have therefore chosen to raise the repo rate. Our monetary policy considerations have of course taken into account considerations related to risks linked with house prices and the build-up of household debt. House prices affect demand through households' decisions regarding saving and consumption.

Given the effects of monetary policy normally assumed, the difference in inflation and employment would have been marginal. For monetary policy to bring inflation much closer to the target level, a radically different policy would have been necessary. For instance, the Riksbank would probably have needed to cut the repo rate quickly and substantially a couple of years ago rather than making the gradual cuts that were implemented. It would have been difficult to justify this type of monetary policy given the view of economic prospects at that time. It is also clear that the monetary policy that was conducted has had a strong expansionary effect on the economy. For instance, GDP growth has been high. The expansionary monetary policy has also been evident in the rapid credit expansion in the household sector and the price increases in the housing market. It is doubtful whether it would have been wise to reinforce this development with even more expansionary monetary policy. Unfortunately, the strong growth has not resulted in a corresponding recovery in employment. On the contrary, the labour market has developed more weakly than might have been expected from a historical perspective, given the high GDP growth. To some extent this reflects the unexpectedly high  BIS Review 12/2006  5  productivity growth. However, a reasonable explanation is that there are also problems in the labour market that are not cyclical. This is something that should be resolved by other means than monetary policy.
f.  We expect insurers to have effective risk management and governance, including independent risk and internal audit functions; and boards with a majority of independent non-executive directors, for both insurance groups and significant insurance companies within those groups. g. Insurers must disclose their financial position regularly in some detail, based on market prices for assets and liabilities as far as possible. Our regime, however, is not seeking to eliminate all risk (or achieve the stability of the graveyard). Provided insurers match their assets and liabilities, the Solvency II Matching Adjustment insulates them from movements in the market price of assets backing annuity liabilities to which they are not 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  4  exposed as buy-and-hold investors. They are also able to bring forward into day-one profits any returns on these assets in excess of what is required to compensate for the risk of credit default and downgrade. That adds up to a powerful incentive to invest in long-term assets yielding good risk-adjusted returns. Since the introduction of Solvency II, UK insurers have responded by diversifying out of government and corporate bonds into direct investments in infrastructure finance, commercial real estate lending and equity release mortgages (Chart 3). The infrastructure investments, for example, include renewable energy, hospitals, student accommodation, social housing and railway rolling stock leasing (Chart 4).

Dear ladies and gentlemen, Safe and efficient fulfilment of the economy’s need for money, in terms of value and structure, and guaranteeing the confidence of the public in our currency, which is one of our main responsibilities, have been at the core of our efforts in preparing this new series. Therefore, I am very honoured to unveil today, for the first time, for the eyes of the public, this new series of banknotes. As the Governor of the Bank of Albania, through this symbolic signing, I open the doors for the first two banknotes of the new series to start their journey and circulate in the Albanian economy. In the hope that the new banknotes will be welcomed by the public, let me now present to you their design. I would also like to call on the public to handle banknotes with due care, in order to preserve their durability, quality and integrity. From 30 September 2019, the banknotes of the new series 200 lek and 5000 lek will be legal tender in the Republic of Albania and will be used as means of payment, alongside the existing banknotes. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
These foreign currency sales lead to a reduction in sight deposits. We will also sell foreign currency in the future if this is appropriate from a monetary policy perspective. Conversely, we also  Page 6/8  Zurich, 22 June 2023 Thomas Jordan, Martin Schlegel and Andréa M. Maechler  News conference  remain willing to buy foreign currency in the event of excessive appreciation pressure on the Swiss franc. Charts Chart 1  Table  Page 7/8  Zurich, 22 June 2023 Thomas Jordan, Martin Schlegel and Andréa M. Maechler  News conference  Chart 2  Chart 3  Page 8/8

It is often said, even by supposedly responsible people, that the tools used by central banks all over the world to combat inflation will not work here in Iceland, not least because of the way globalisation treats small currencies like the króna, and because of how many investors, through the shelter afforded by globalisation, have the means to avoid the Central Bank’s thumbscrews. The cannons on Iceland’s coast guard cruisers were no weapons of mass destruction, and the difference in size between Thór and Aegir, on the one hand, and the British navy, on the other, was horrific, but we managed nonetheless. Of course, a reference to the Cod Wars is merely a metaphorical one, and I use it more or less in jest, as it doesn’t fully apply to the current situation. But the comparison between the Central Bank of Iceland’s tools and those of other central banks, which enjoy the relative security of a large currency, is worth examining. In the past few months, though, large currencies have not been protected from tremors, shocks, and even wide fluctuation. For example, the euro has appreciated by more than 70% from its weakest point against the US dollar, an enormous change in a relatively short period of time. The Icelandic króna has not been nearly so volatile despite all of the shocks it has had to tolerate. A volatile króna in a turbulent season tends to indicate that the króna is effective as a currency, and not the reverse.
I would also like to welcome Mr. Emil Stavrev, Deputy Division Chief, and Mr. Mariusz Jarmuzek, Senior Economist, both of them from the IMF European Department, who have contributed extensively to the report under debate today. Now, returning to the main topic: The National Bank of Romania has always valued the Regional Economic Outlook Report as it gave us a full and unbiased image of where we stand as compared to our peer countries. It has helped us to better understand the macroeconomic developments in our region and the interconnectedness/connections between our economies. The current report marks a turning point in our post-crisis economic history: We should take advantage of the improved economic context to focus on structural reforms needed to accelerate the real convergence and to raise Romania’s economic capacity in the long run. We need to preserve competitiveness and enhance the quality of public expenditure. We are all glad to see the global economy back on track and the European recovery strengthening. These results are even more encouraging, if we think back to 2010, in the aftermath of the crisis, when economists and policymakers started to really doubt our economies ever returning to business as usual. At that time it was believed that the new normal would come with secular stagnation, low interest rates and low inflation. Romania has secured a record growth of 8.6% in 2017/Q3. Nevertheless, we need to moderate our enthusiasm.

Finally, under the Title II resolution regime, the businesses and the franchise value of the subsidiary-level customer relationships will be maintained relative to a traditional bankruptcy proceeding, which in the past has often led to the liquidation of the bankrupt entity. As we saw in the case of Lehman Brothers, for financial firms, bankruptcy can destroy considerable value. This isn’t an argument against Title II resolution. Dodd-Frank’s addition of Title II to the resolution toolkit was an important advance to regulators’ ability to mitigate financial instability. But we must recognize that Title II by itself it is not sufficient to eliminate the advantages of being perceived as too big to undergo ordinary bankruptcy at the holding company level. Moreover, even with a viable Title II resolution regime in place, we must recognize that there still will be disruption to the financial system when a large firm fails. This suggests to me that while a Title II single point of entry resolution is a very useful tool that we should continue to develop, we should view it as more preferable to prevent the failure of the SIFI in the first place. In this regard, I think we have made considerable progress by raising capital and liquidity requirements for large, complex firms.
First, collective decision-making appears to give more weight to the better and less weight to the worse committee members, as judged by their scores when playing the game as individuals, than would be implied by taking the mean of individual performance. The best player had some influence on the decisions of the group of which they were a member. And the impact of the worst player was offset by majority voting. In other words, the median score of the players in the individual rounds was significantly above the mean, implying that the average was being pulled down by a minority of relatively bad players. Second, there was also evidence from the experiments consistent with the hypothesis that committees enable all members to improve their performance by sharing information and learning from each other. And it was striking that the performance of committees was on average somewhat better than that of the performance of the single best player on the committee when playing alone. So in terms of group decisions, it appears that the whole is different from - and generally better than - the sum of its parts. Producing the perfect design of a committee structure that would make the best decisions is a task with no simple answer. But the MPC embodies several features that seem desirable. First, there is a clear objective given to the Committee from outside, in this case by the government. Second, the members are chosen for their technical ability.

Over the next two years, the current process of disclosure by the users of capital, reaction by the suppliers of capital, and adjustment of these standards will be critical to ensure that the TCFD standards are as comparable, efficient and as decision-useful as possible. Risk management With better information, the frontier will be to upgrade risk management and optimise returns. As the supervisor of the world’s fourth largest insurance industry, the Bank of England knows that general insurers and reinsurers are on the front line of managing the physical risks from climate change. Insurers have responded by developing their modelling and forecasting capabilities, improving exposure management, and adapting coverage and pricing. In the process, insurers have learned that yesterday’s tail risk is closer to today’s central scenario. And leading insurers also understand that the breadth, magnitude, and foreseeable nature of climate risks— mean the biggest challenge will be to assess the resilience of firms’ strategies to transition risks. That’s why, the Bank of England just set out our supervisory expectations for banks and insurers regarding their governance, risk management, strategic resilience and disclosure of climate-related financial risks. 8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  8  And in June the Bank announced that we will be the first supervisor to stress test our financial system for resilience against different climate transition pathways: ranging from early and orderly to late and disruptive.
BIS Review 16/2004  3  Simultaneously with the need to contribute to the promotion of economic convergence within the EMU parameters, our central banks are engaged in the task of integrating themselves into the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). The challenge here is multifaceted in that it involves infrastructural and organisational changes that profoundly affect not only the central bank and the financial markets, but also the players in those markets. The technical aspects of ESCB membership represent a special challenge for small acceding countries like Malta. The domestic financial markets in most of our countries are small and less liquid that those of existing EU members, and typically less sophisticated. And yet, upon membership we will be expected to function on the same level as the long-standing and, in most cases, larger members of the System. Ensuring that the transition takes place with the least possible disruption has entailed a comprehensive reform of institutions and operating systems. For example, a real time gross settlement payment system (RTGS) has been put in place instead of the existing payment infrastructure. The standards of the securities settlement system have been upgraded to a fully ESCB-compliant ‘delivery versus payment’ system, which ensures the risk-free transfer of collateral and, where necessary, of securities. Cross-border payment systems have been adapted to ensure that they meet today’s ‘straight through processing’ standards. Similarly, with regard to statistics there has been an overhaul of methodologies and databases.

It is indispensable that households with minimum income to access and benefit the basic banking products, such as current accounts. The Bank of Albania, through legal and institutional changes has provided the possibility that households benefit these basic financial products at a low or no cost at all. As a result, cheaper and swifter alternatives, which compete with the existing financial products, will be available. At the same time, companies that will enter into these new markets will have better possibilities of profit. Education is the sole costs to know and benefit from these products. In this regard, the Bank of Albania remains the main actor for the spread and implementation of the national financial education and inclusion strategies. In this framework, the Bank of Albania is working with national and international important partners, the World Bank and EBRD. Their long experience shows that the correction and reduction of social and economic disparities is a difficult commitment, which takes time. Nevertheless, enhancing financial literacy, by spreading knowledges such are: budget drafting; its effective management; knowing risks and avoiding wrong investments; may affect the mitigation of wounds that these turbulences brings into the life of poor people, and of course to everyone; to the whole society and population and the financial situation that the moment brings about. Turning back to the launching of the Global Money Week 2022, I am glad to see the ever increasing interest of youths, their teachers and professors in our educational activities.
Timber has steadily found new applications in Borregaard’s products, such as building materials, biofuels and medicine – with timber always as the main raw material.5 Norway’s industry structure is in flux. In the past decades, the manufacturing industry has continued to decline (Chart 8), reflecting increased automation and relocation abroad. Increased prosperity has generated more demand for both private and public services. Employment has shifted towards the service sector. 3 Blomgren, A. et al (2015) “Industribyggerne 2015” [Industry builders 2015]. IRIS Report 2015/031 (Norwegian only). 4 World Bank “Ease of doing business index”. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IC.BUS.EASE.XQ. 5 Throughout its history, Borregaard has had various owners and names. See eg Bergh, T. and E. Lange (1989) Foredlet virke – Historien om Borregaard 1889–1989 [Processed timber – The story of Borregaard]. Ad Notam forlag AS, Oslo (Norwegian only), and www.borregaard.no for more information. 10  NORGES BANK  Chart 8 Employment shifts towards services. Annual average change in number of employed in the period 1980 – 2018. Percent  ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 14 FEBRUARY 2019  Public services  Private services  Construction  Manufacturing  Agriculture, forestry and mining –3  –2  –1  0  1  2  3  Sources: Stastistics Norway and Norges Bank  The service industry has reaped gains in the form of increased productivity through restructuring and adoption of new technology. The banking industry was among the first to do so. The distributive trade sector has grown in recent decades without any notable increase in employment (Chart 9).

Contributing factors to the current situation in repo market Let me now review some medium to long-term trends contributing to the current situation in the repo market, affecting both the supply and demand of collateral. It should first be noted that the repo market has seen a reduction in its role for funding, also due to the excess liquidity injected and the securities absorption implied by APP. On the supply side, the availability of high-quality collateral is inevitably pro-cyclical. From a pure economic view point, the financial crisis, its length, rising debt levels and rating downgrades to sovereigns reduced the amount of available assets that are considered ‘safe’, particularly for non-banks (although regulators treat all sovereigns as risk-free). This is most easily visible in the current clustering of GC collateral rates by country of issuer, which was largely absent prior to the crisis. On the demand side, the evolution of prudential regulation has affected the repo market. A number of features, which have in principle been known since the reform of Basel III in 2010, are still being phased in and directly affect banks’ participation in the repo markets, particularly the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and the net stable funding ratio (NSFR). A third measure – the leverage ratio – is now subject to reporting requirements, but there is not as yet an agreed international regulatory standard. The LCR requires banks to hold sufficient high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) to cover projected net cash outflows.
No doubt the details will take some time to work out. We might be tempted in Hong Kong to respond that we have demonstrated clearly this last year that we already have the ability to maintain banking stability. The measures being contemplated internationally are designed for repairing and renovating banking systems that have effectively collapsed: some of the measures may indeed be going too far. Therefore, we might conclude that we do not need to consider them for Hong Kong. Such an attitude would, I think, be a mistake. As an international financial centre, Hong Kong must adopt international standards and best practices. We have to move with the times, although that does not of course mean we have to blindly implement everything in an inflexible, straightjacket manner. Hong Kong is, in fact, in a good position to adopt and participate in the various measures now under consideration by the G20, the Financial Stability Board and its Standing Committees, and other international agencies. Our voice may not be so loud or strong as that of the larger economies, but we still have a responsibility to speak up, to seek to ensure that what comes out of the international forums is balanced, and realistic for local and regional conditions. The increasing participation by Asian economies, including Hong Kong, in these international forums is a good sign that the rest of the world is paying attention to, and ready to learn from, the experiences of this region.

The annual growth rate of credit to the private sector climbed further in December 2021, albeit visibly more slowly, reaching 14.8 percent from 14.6 percent in November, solely due to the component in local currency. Leu-denominated loans saw their annual dynamics accelerate further in 2021, to 19.6 percent in December from 19.0 percent in November, also backed by government programs, with their share in total thus widening to 72.4 percent. Nowadays, as many other EU member states, Romania is preoccupied by the geopolitical and energy situation and their considerable impact on inflation. Inflationary shocks on the energy components of the consumption basket hit repeatedly throughout second half of 2021. These were partly offset by a government support scheme, in effect from November 2021. Nevertheless, the energy component still accounted for more than half of the overall annual inflation rate by the end of 2021. It is a fact now that approximately 85 percent of the CPI has root in the energy price surge. Therefore, the inflation expectations on the 1-year horizon have risen sharply, reflecting current developments. The positioning of the 2-year ahead expectations close to the target variation band suggests that the anchoring mechanism is still in place. However, specific measure to address energy situation is a need. Uncertainties continue to stem from the evolution of the pandemic as well, given the current wave, triggered by the more contagious Omicron variant of the coronavirus although the variant seems to be less virulent.