samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A recent paper examines how economists and commentators, when confronted with a flattening curve in the past, often argued that “this time is different”. [31] That is, they claimed that special factors were contributing to the flatter curve and that these compromised the standard interpretation of the curve as a harbinger of recession. As I mentioned at the beginning, the current euro area yield curve is indeed quite flat from a historical perspective, with the spread between ten-year and one-year yields amounting to about 30 basis points, which is around 1 percentage point lower than on average. [32] I will certainly not make a binary statement on whether this time is different. In particular, a sound assessment of the future growth outlook should be based on a wide range of indicators and models, rather than the yield curve alone. Moreover, there are two further issues to consider. First, the current flattening of the curve has mainly been induced by the long end of the curve coming down, rather than by the short end coming up. This constellation is different from previous episodes of yield curve inversion, as is shown in Chart 11. Hence, the inversion of the yield curve observed this time is not occurring in a context of monetary policy contraction raising the short end of the curve. Chart 11 Decomposition of change in the slope of the yield curve (percentage points)  Sources: Bundesbank, OECD, Thomson Reuters and ECB calculations. Notes: Update of the corresponding chart in De Backer et al. (2019).

[23] This result is qualitatively in line with Joyce, M., Tong, M. and Woods, R. (2011), “The United Kingdom’s quantitative easing policy: design, operation and impact”, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2011Q3 who find that “the fall in gilt yields cannot primarily be attributed to signalling effects […] Instead, it is consistent with the main effect coming through portfolio rebalancing”. Bauer and Rudebusch (2014), op. cit., by contrast, find up to one half of the US LSAP effects on yields coming through signalling, challenging earlier literature giving less weight to this channel. In addition, Broadbent (2018) op. cit. argues that the effects of asset purchases and the relative importance of the channels through which they work can vary over time. [24] Duration extraction was highlighted also as a prominent channel for the Federal Reserve’s LSAP, see the seminal paper by Gagnon, J., Raskin, M., Remache, J. and Sack, B. (2011), “The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Large-Scale Asset Purchases”, International Journal of Central Banking, 7(1), pp. 3-43, which stresses exactly the type of mechanism that ECB staff tried to quantify for the euro area: “The LSAPs have removed a considerable amount of assets with high duration from the markets. With less duration risk to hold in the aggregate, the market should require a lower premium to hold that risk. This effect may arise because those investors most willing to bear the risk are the ones left holding it.
The second area of prospective demand for humans skills is bespoke design and manufacture (“hands”). Routine technical tasks are relatively simple to automate and are already well on their way to disappearing. 57  Gratton and Scott (2016). AlphaGoZero is one such attempt. It is an updated version of AlphaGo, a computer programme that plays the game ‘Go’, which itself was the first software to beat a human professional player in full match. 58  15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  15  But the same is not true of non-routine technical tasks – for example, the creation of goods and services that are distinctive in their design, manufacture or delivery. A rise in global wealth and income is likely to create an increasing demand for luxury goods and services of this type, whose characteristics are unique and supply constrained. Indeed, this can be seen already in the rising demand and price of rare art and artefacts and independently-produced foodstuffs and beverages. To meet this demand, Mark Carney has spoken about the re-emergence of a new artisan class. If so, this would mark something of a return to our pre-industrial revolution future. 59  The third, and perhaps the biggest potential growth area of all, is social skills (“hearts”). That is, tasks requiring emotional intelligence (such as sympathy and empathy, relationship-building and negotiation skills, resilience and character) rather than cognitive intelligence alone. These are skills a robot is likely to find it hard to replicate.

A:  Avenue for meetings – To promote discussion and policy analysis among central banks, the Asian office has hosted and supported numerous meetings and events in the region, collaborating with other organisations such as the Financial Stability Institute, EMEAP and SEANZA. R:  Reserves management – The Asian office plays a vital role in the management and administration of Asian Bond Funds 1 and 2 that aim to broaden and deepen regional and domestic bond markets. The dealing room of the Asian office also provides Asian central banks with ready access to BIS banking services, helping facilitate their liquidity and portfolio management of foreign reserves. Over these 10 years, I have seen the Asian office play a significant role in helping to strengthen financial sectors, develop financial infrastructure, and promote stability and  BIS Review 88/2008  1  financial integration in this region. And since its establishment, the HKMA has stepped up its participation in the BIS' wide range of activities, sometimes co-hosting seminars and meetings, fostering an even closer relationship between us. Let me take this opportunity to acknowledge with thanks the great work of the BIS management and its staff, who have made the Asian office a success. In particular, I would like to thank Bob McCauley who has contributed significantly to the achievements of the Asian Office in the past decade. The accomplishments of the BIS in Asia over the past 10 years call for celebration. With this in mind, let's celebrate these achievements and anticipate even greater endeavours to come.
First and foremost, international linkages have risen dramatically over the past few decades, increasing the importance of cross border spillovers.6 Growing cross border trade means external demand has greater effects on domestic resource allocation and therefore inflation. The integration of low-cost producers into the global economy has imparted a steady disinflationary bias through its direct effect on prices. The expansion in global value chains has increased the synchronisation of producer prices across countries. Financial linkages have increased leading to a faster and more powerful transmission of shocks across countries. And globalisation has increased the contestability of markets, weakening the extent to which slack in domestic labour markets influences domestic inflationary pressures.7 Second, the changing nature of trade invoicing is affecting import price pass through and changing the inflation-output volatility trade-off facing monetary policy makers. Dominant currency pricing is widespread (partly due to the growth of supply chains), leading to deviations from the law of one price and misalignments in countries’ terms of trade.8 The dollar represents the currency of choice for at least half of international trade invoices, around five times greater than the US’s share in world goods imports, and three times its share in world exports.9 The resulting stickiness of import prices in dollar terms means exchange rate pass-through for changes in the dollar is high regardless of the country of export and import, while pass-through of non-dominant currencies is negligible.

In this context, the SNB fully supports FINMA’s efforts to ensure that risk-taking by individual banks is reduced or backed by specific capital charges whenever the risk exposure is deemed exceptionally large by historical or industry standards. In parallel with these measures, the SNB will continue to monitor developments on the mortgage and real estate markets closely, and will reassess the need for an adjustment to the CCB on a regular basis. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Basle Report Findings As you know, I chair the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision, comprised of bank supervisors from the G-10 countries who coordinate supervisory policy for internationally active banks. While the Committee does not have formal legal enforcement powers, its conclusions and recommendations are widely implemented, both in G-10 countries and many others. In late January, the Committee issued a report dealing with the relationship between 1  BIS Review 27/1999  banks and highly-leveraged institutions, or “HLIs”. The Committee’ s report provides a framework for addressing the broader issues raised by the LTCM episode, the policy responses of supervisors, and some key risk management challenges for the banking industry going forward. In the United States, the Federal Reserve System, the New York State Banking Department, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency have conducted target reviews of a number of large-bank dealings with hedge funds. These reviews contributed to the Committee’ s work, to the Federal Reserve System’ s issuance on February 1 of new guidance to financial examiners and banks, and to similar guidance from the Comptroller of the Currency issued in January. These new standards emphasize the need for improvements in the credit risk management process at banks. The new standards will likely be complemented by a study of the implications of the LTCM episode by the President’ s Working Group on Financial Markets.

Mr McDonough comments on Capital Markets, Securities and Government Sponsored Enterprises Statement by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Mr William J. McDonough, before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C., on 3 March 1999. Good morning Chairmen Leach and Baker and members of the Subcommittee. When I appeared before the full Committee in October, I spoke about the near-collapse of Long-Term Capital Management and the events leading up to the private-sector recapitalization of its fund, Long-Term Capital Portfolio. At that time, I promised you that we would take a hard look at the issues growing out of that experience, particularly as they affect our responsibilities as bank supervisors. I am pleased to appear before you today to report on the lessons we have learned and the actions we have taken to reduce the possibility that such an episode could repeat itself in the future. As I indicated last fall, three issues require particular attention by banks and their supervisors in the wake of LTCM. These are, first, the adequacy of banks’ credit analysis processes; second, the effectiveness of exposure measurement; and third, the role of stress testing of counterparty exposure. In my remarks today I will detail the substantial progress that has been made, both domestically and internationally, to address each of these supervisory concerns.
And then we do not have the same element of speculation in the Swedish housing market as in, for instance, Australia and to some extent the United Kingdom. What I mean here is the phenomenon that households buy housing as a financial investment and then rent it out, which may contribute to imbalances building up. This type of activity is not profitable in Sweden in the same way. There are several reasons for this, but the most important ones are probably the tax system and rent legislation. In Sweden we usually buy a house to live in rather than as a financial asset. However, having said this I would nevertheless like to say a word of caution. It is quite right to wonder whether the developments in recent years are actually sustainable. Households’ debts in relation to incomes peaked at around 120 per cent in connection with the crisis in the 1990s. Today this figure is almost 170 per cent! Also at the beginning of the 1990s many models and fundamental driving forces behind house price developments pointed to there not being a serious over-valuation in the property market. Nevertheless prices fell in many areas by around 30 per cent! Such a development could affect the real economy and thereby also the conditions for monetary policy.

It aims to help people find out more about the notes and coins they use every day. On this occasion, though, there’s something new. The highlight today is the brand new ten euro note. It’s the first time it has been on public display since it was unveiled to the media just two days ago at the ECB in Frankfurt. That means you’ll be one of the first to see this new note before it starts circulating on 23 September this year. The new ten euro is part of what we call the Europa series of banknotes. It’s named after the figure from Greek mythology whose portrait is included in the hologram and the watermark on the notes. Take a closer look at those two security features in the exhibition, as well as the distinctive emerald number, which changes colour from green to deep blue when you tilt the note. They’re all examples of how we have used advanced technologies to make the notes even more secure. The security features will keep us well ahead of counterfeiters – and justify the confidence that the people of the euro area have in their money. There’s a lot more to be seen in this exhibition, which I hope you will all find as interesting and entertaining as I did. So without further ado, allow me to declare it open. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1
During the interval they have an encounter with Global’s friend from the time he was a student. It turns out that he recently got married and his wife used to work with Global on a project several years ago. They decide to go for a drink together. Using their communicators they choose a cosy restaurant next to the theatre and book a table. After the performance they are all in great mood, and recall the beginning of the 21st century with amusement. The waiter discreetly charges Global’s non-contact e-wallet for actually ordered dishes. John can easily accept the payments after he comes back home. Global registers all transaction details in his financial organizer build into the communicator. Thanks to it he can track and analyze his transactions and schedule expenses. He is fully in control of his finances. His personal communicator receives financial operations on an ongoing basis, and confirms or accepts them. Once a weak it receives a financial e-analysis drawing Global’s attention to offers better tailored to his appetite for risk and lifestyle. Small hours. Mr. and Mrs. Global are coming back home. Why have I told you this story? Why does a central banker tell stories about future instead of delivering a 30-minute speech of the success achieved by the National Bank of Poland and its partners in building a safe, efficient and modern payment infrastructure in Poland? The reason for this is that we have to prepare for the future.

William C Dudley: The evolving structure of the US treasury market Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at The Evolving Structure of the U.S. Treasury Market: Second Annual Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 24 October 2016. * * * On behalf of the New York Fed and our co-sponsors, it is my pleasure to welcome you to this second annual conference on the evolving structure of the U.S. Treasury market. We have the opportunity today to continue the dialogue around the changing nature of the Treasury market, a discussion that grew more urgent following the events of October 15, 2014.1 We have made significant progress since last year’s conference in improving our collective understanding of the Treasury market, and I believe it is important to continue official and private sector collaboration on this topic. Indeed, there is much left to do to ensure the continued integrity and effectiveness of this market, and I look forward to the further progress we will make today. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System.2 Over the past year, the Joint Member Agencies 3 have engaged with market participants and other members of the public to gain more information on the changing structure of the Treasury market.
Ultimately, the most important measure of success for the reforms that we are now pursuing in the general insurance industry will be how far they contribute towards addressing the protection gap that exists, in turn strengthening our foundations for growth and stability. Today, I would like to talk about how agents have a key role in this process. In a more liberalised environment, insurers will have much greater flexibility in the design and pricing of products based on their respective business and risk strategies. This should encourage pricing that is more aligned to risks (let’s call this point “A”), and place greater power in the hands of consumers to manage the cost of insurance by controlling the risk factors that influence pricing (let’s call this point “B”). This in turn can make insurance more affordable for more people and businesses, especially small businesses. However, interventions by an agent are what effectively connects points “A” and “B”. In a detariffed environment, the number and range of risk factors that determine insurance prices are expected to expand. Consumers will also have more choice on the scope and level of protection that they purchase. Agents, having both direct access to consumers, and intimate knowledge of an insurance provider’s underwriting considerations and products, are best placed to explain the insurance options that are available to the consumer and make recommendations on how to maximize the value of a purchase. A number of things will need to happen for agents to deliver on this expectation.

It will improve incentives for safe driving behaviours and better risk management practices by both risk owners and insurers. And it will address market distortions which have threatened access to motor insurance, particularly for higher risks. This is also a time when businesses and households are facing rising costs and more uncertain conditions which can adversely affect discretionary spending on insurance. At the same time, the exposures of households and businesses which insurance is designed to protect, have actually increased as evidenced by more frequent and severe incidents of natural and man-made disasters. All of these developments raise critical questions for insurance agents. One question that comes up time and again is: Will insurance agents continue to be relevant? If you are in this room today, then I assume you will agree with me that the answer is clearly ‘yes’. But I believe you are also here because there is a recognition that agents will have to evolve. Even if some of you were not completely convinced of this before, that reality surely can no longer be ignored or dismissed. So the more important question then is how agents can be a meaningful part of this change in order to advance the important benefits of insurance for the economy and the wider society? Today in Malaysia, the general insurance penetration level measured in terms of premiums as a share of GDP stands at less than 2% (1.68% as at end 2015).
With the new quarterly data, published by the Scottish Executive, it looks as though in the year to Q1 output growth in Scotland was higher than in the UK as a whole. The latest surveys show business confidence continuing to rise. And most welcome of all, unemployment has continued to fall in Scotland, as in most parts of the UK. Nevertheless, the high level of sterling has undoubtedly caused serious problems for many sectors of the economy. As a result, some critics have argued that, with sterling at its present level, the burden of containing inflation should fall more on fiscal policy. By raising taxes or cutting expenditure this would, it is argued, enable the Monetary Policy Committee to lower interest rates, thus bringing down the pound. There is, it is alleged, a failure of coordination between monetary and fiscal policy. This argument deserves a reasoned answer. So tonight I want to answer two questions. First, why did the MPC feel it necessary to raise interest rates in September, at a time when inflation was a little below target and might fall further in the next few months? Second, is there adequate coordination between monetary and fiscal policy under the new arrangements? 2. Setting interest rates to meet the inflation target  What a difference a year makes. Last October, bankers, especially in the United States, were talking about the worst financial crisis of their adult lifetimes.

We are committed to a dialogue, and that includes a dialogue with the people of Scotland. I cannot claim that we shall always do what some of you would like us to. But I can promise that we shall explain and we shall listen. And we shall remember those words of Rabbie Burns, O wad some Pow’r the giftie gie us To see oursels as others see us! It wad frae mony a blunder free us, And foolish notion. Some of you may still feel that the MPC’s decision to raise interest rates was a “foolish notion”. But I can assure you that our mission to explain will continue, and that we shall take the case for stability to every part of the country in order “to see oursels as others see us”. 5  BIS Review 111/1999