samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The vitality of the manufacturing, financial and construction sectors, which have fuelled economic growth in our country over the past few quarters, is likely to diminish, particularly in view of the expected slowdown in global demand. Growth in Swiss GDP will probably amount to a little over 2.5% in 2006 (this is a cautious forecast), falling back slightly in 2007 yet remaining in the vicinity of 2%. Consumer prices rose 1.4% in July, marginally above our figure for core inflation, which at 1.2% is the highest since April 2002. However, these rates are well below the level of 2% that we consider the upper limit for price stability. For 2006 as a whole, we expect the average rate of inflation to remain below 1.5%, and this is unlikely to change much in 2007. With respect to monetary policy, the healthy economic outlook in both the world and domestic economies, together with the high level of capacity utilisation in manufacturing, require us to further pursue normalisation of the target range for the three-month Libor. This is particularly necessary in view of the significant relaxation in global monetary conditions – due to the depreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro – that has occurred since our last monetary policy assessment in mid-June. BIS Review 78/2006  1

And it is vital, in any case, that clearing houses continue to have robust arrangements for monitoring and controlling risk, including proper margining procedures and adequate financial resources, and that their procedures and ownership structure gives members the incentive to ensure that risk is adequately controlled. That suggests to us that control and ownership of the clearing house should reside with clearing members, who are, in any case, likely to contribute a major part of any mutual guarantee fund. So we welcome the fact that the product of the LCH/Clearnet discussions is intended to be a non-profit mutual organisation which gives ownership to its users and look forward to as productive a relationship with the new body as we currently have with LCH. The topic of this week’s conference - putting the dot.com into derivatives - presents challenges but also opportunities. If we can address both, the derivatives industry will be better placed than ever to meet the needs of users world-wide. I wish you all an enjoyable week. 3  BIS Review 51/2000
11.05.2023  The financial system: current situation and challenges IE University – Banco de España – Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis Conference: Current Challenges in Economics & Finance Madrid Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Thank you very much to the organisers for inviting me to this conference. Today, I will be addressing you in my capacity as Chair of the Advisory Technical Committee of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB),1 a role which brings a deep EU-oriented perspective, complementary to my regular responsibilities as Governor of the Banco de España and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The macrofinancial risk landscape and the banking sector The macrofinancial risk landscape has changed in recent months and continues to evolve. In a relatively short period of time we have moved from low inflation and low interest rates to persistent high inflation and rising interest rates. This shift poses new and enhanced risks to financial stability. To heighten awareness of these risks the ESRB adopted a Warning2 on vulnerabilities in the EU financial system in September 2022. This is the first general warning (i.e. addressed to all EU Member States) that has been issued by the ESRB since its establishment in 2010. Over the last seven months some economic developments have surprised to the upside, while some vulnerabilities timely identified in the Warning have come to the fore.

A gradual transition requires, as you here in Finland are well aware, that the exchange rate is fixed irreversibly from the date of joining the union and the euro becomes the national currency, while banknotes and coins in the old currency continue to remain legal tender during a transition period. During this period there is no compulsion to use the euro and nor is there any prohibition against it. The disadvantage of a gradual transition would be that, as euro banknotes and coins already exist in the euro zone, it may appear strange to the Swedish general public that they cannot use them fully in all transactions in Sweden right from the start. The advantages of a gradual transition are that the major technical and practical adaptations to the euro could be made in stages, while Sweden would be able to participate fully in all co-operation and decision-making forums in the euro zone from EMU membership, without having to wait until the practical work was finished. The most recent report states that in a gradual transition process the financial sector and central government sector would need 1-1.5 years from the time of a political decision until the SEK/EUR exchange rate was fixed in order to prepare. After this, a further one year would be needed for the financial sector and two years for the central government sector before euro banknotes and coins could replace the krona. This is 1-2 years shorter than the three years the current EMU countries have had to prepare.
Because the standards represent a comprehensive compendium of best practices, even the best-managed institutions will have to improve in some areas to take full advantage of the various approaches offered by Basel II. For institutions whose risk management practices are not leading edge, the benefits of Basel II implementation will be even more obvious. The Basel II framework contains many useful lessons and can serve as a good roadmap on how to improve internal risk management. With the exception of small banks with relatively simple business models, the risk management practices and standards under the more sophisticated approaches of Basel II will be useful for all institutions. Admittedly, not all aspects of Basel II will be of use to every bank. For example, some of the quantification tools used in large complex institutions may not be necessary for the smaller and less sophisticated institutions. But, common tenets of good risk management embodied in Basel II - such as good processes to identify risks, the exercise of sound judgment to assess the extent of threats to solvency posed by the risks, and the discipline to control risks if they are disproportionately high - are equally applicable to all institutions, large or small. Basel II and financial stability One of the criticisms of Basel II is that capital cushions required under Pillar 1 will tend to become more cyclical, dropping at the peak of economic cycles and increasing at the bottom of cycles when capital can be more scarce and expensive.

With the experience gained together, we can deliver positive and significant changes that will improve the welfare of individuals and businesses, not just in these two cities but across Malaysia and in countries that are dependent on remittance flows. Thank you. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
• In FX alone, there are more than 30 futures and options. The next stage in our growth as a risk management centre is to become an electronic trading hub in Asia. •  As Asian FX flows grow, Asia will become an increasingly important FX market where price discovery takes place. •  We are working with key partners to build up the e-trading infrastructure in Singapore. •  This will improve trade execution and reduce latency in pricing, thereby lowering transaction costs for investors. Besides connecting global investors to Asia, Singapore is well placed to facilitate financing opportunities for Asia. We are building platforms to facilitate bond issuance and infrastructure financing in Asia. •  This will in turn broaden the suite and depth of Asian investable assets for global investors. Singapore is among the choice destinations for Asian bonds issuance. •  Singapore’s bond market has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of around 9% over last five years to reach $ billion. •  The bond market ecosystem remains a big draw, with several companies issuing in Singapore repeatedly. • For instance, Hitachi International Ltd has tapped Singapore’s debt market frequently for more than a decade, raising over $ billion in total. Investors are able to access in Singapore a variety of bonds, denominated in G3 as well as Asian currencies.

Connecting Global Markets Supporting Asias Growth  Page 1 of 7  "Connecting Global Markets, Supporting Asia’s Growth" - Presentation by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director, Monetary Authority of Singapore, at Nomura Investment Forum Asia on 5 June 2018  Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Thank you for inviting me to speak at this important investment forum. Asia’s dynamism and growth will be the defining investment theme of the next decade. •  Asian assets have become an essential component of a balanced and diversified portfolio. • The expansion of Nomura’s forum from an Asian equity event previously to one that showcases the full suite of investment products in the region reflects the growth in investment opportunities in Asia. •  Like Nomura which serves investors looking to invest in Asia, Singapore aims to connect investors to opportunities in the region. Asia will remain the fastest growing region in the world over the next five years. •  The IMF puts Asia at the top of the global growth league, with a projected annual growth rate of 6.4%. • India at 7-8% p.a., China at 6% p.a., and the ASEAN-5 economies – Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore – at around 5% p.a. The size of the Asian middle class is set to double by 2025, from 2015 levels.
Banks’ sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate of 1.75% up to a certain threshold. Sight deposits above this threshold will be remunerated at an interest rate of 1.25%, and thus still at a discount of 0.5 percentage points relative to the SNB policy rate. Inflation forecast  I would like to address the development of inflation. Inflation has declined significantly in recent months, and stood at 2.2% in May. This decrease was above all attributable to lower inflation on imported goods, in particular lower prices for oil products and natural gas. Our new conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.75% over the entire forecast horizon (cf. chart 1). Through to the end of 2023, the new forecast is below that of March. The lower oil and gas prices and the stronger Swiss franc are having a dampening effect over the short term. From 2024 onwards, the new forecast is higher than in March, despite today’s increase in the SNB policy rate. The reasons for this are ongoing second-round effects, higher electricity prices and rents, and more persistent inflationary pressure from abroad. The new forecast puts average annual inflation at 2.2% for 2023 and 2024, and 2.1% for 2025 (cf. table). In the forecast period, inflation is likely to be increasingly driven by higher prices of domestic goods and services. Without today’s policy rate increase, the inflation forecast would be even higher over the medium term.

Given the free production capacity, Albanian businesses found less room to increase their investments in machineries & equipment, and production, while the demand for resident buildings remains weak. At the same time, foreign demand was sluggish in the second quarter of 2012, owing to the problems in euro zone and in our main foreign trade partners. The weak foreign demand, and the problems in electrical energy production, imposed the slow increase of the Albanian exports. Data on economy for the second quarter of 2012 are incomplete. Indirect data signal a weak recovery of the economy in this period. Their analysis supports the estimation for a continuing sluggish aggregate demand, especially of the domestic demand. On the production side, economic sectors are expected to maintain in the second quarter of 2012 the dynamic showed in the first quarter of 2012. Fiscal developments in the second quarter of 2012 were in line with those observed in the first quarter of 2012, characterised by the consolidated fiscal policy and its inclination to maintain budget deficit and public debt targets. This behaviour is reflected in the contraction of budget expenses by 2.5% in the first half of 2012 Furthermore, fiscal revenues increased by 3.7% during this period, continuing to show a slow dynamic of their taxing component. The performance of public expenditure and income in the first half of 2012 is materialised at the significant contraction of budget deficit in annual terms, at 37.7%. This deficit was ALL 16.8 billion in monetary value, and is assessed at 2.6% of GDP.
The FSB working group took on the task of investigating the way in which these benchmarks were fixed and recommending ways to improve them. The group’s work was independent of simultaneous investigations into foreign market manipulation by supervisory authorities in a number of different countries, which resulted in the imposition of fines in November. The final report presented at the end of September found that – unlike the situation for benchmark interest rates – liquidity in the foreign exchange market was high and therefore provided an adequate breadth of data for calculating benchmarks. However, the problem for benchmark fixing in this area stems from a different source, namely the fact that trading orders become heavily concentrated shortly ahead of the fixing time. This gives traders opportunities to manipulate the price of the fixing to their own advantage. In order to eliminate these opportunities, the working group is proposing that the fixing window be widened, thereby broadening the range of data sources. In addition, the group also recommends various codes of conduct guidelines for fixing orders. What is particularly important is to ensure that banks do not share information with each other about customer orders before the fixing. The SNB supports the recommendations contained in the report by the working group. It is now up to the private sector, first and foremost, to implement these recommendations. The reforms carried out so far, with regard to both interest rate benchmarks and foreign exchange benchmarks, are steps in the right direction.

Without you – the financial industry – we would not have the vibrant and competitive financial centre that we have today, or the market and digital infrastructures that we have built. You stood with us in crisis after crisis – in 1973, when the Bretton Wood system of fixed exchange rates broke down in 1985, economic recession, Pan-El crisis and closure of the stock exchange in 1995, collapse of Barings Bank from massive losses in derivatives trading here in Singapore in 1997, the Asian financial crisis and closure of trading of Malaysian shares on Clob in 2008, the global financial crisis and when Singaporean investors lost large sums of money from structured notes like Minibonds And you did it again last year, amid the COVID-19 pandemic and plunge in the economy. In less than two weeks of close and intense collaboration between MAS and the banking, finance company, and insurance industry associations, we put together a comprehensive package of unprecedented credit and premium reliefs. This helped many individuals and SMEs tide over a difficult period of financial stress. We achieved this together, not by regulatory fiat or coercion – maybe a little moral suasion – 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  but truly in a spirit of co-operation, driven by a sense of common purpose. Thank you all so much for the support and for stepping up in Singaporeans’ hour of need.
The members of the Committee viewed this challenge as an opportunity to advance the state of the art in risk management worldwide. Just over the past few months we have resolved some of the most difficult technical issues that arose in recent discussions with the industry. This brings me to the status of our work today, my second topic. The Status of the New Accord To test the quality of our proposals, and to ensure that our new framework would be more sensitive to risk and would create incentives for advances in risk management, the Basel Committee has undertaken three global public consultations. The third consultation concluded last summer attracted over 200 comments from the industry and the public. We’ve also conducted massive impact studies, gathering detailed information from over 350 banks worldwide on how the new rules would affect their capital requirements. This public consultation process and our series of impact studies would have been impossible without the tremendous support, candour, and hard work that so many banks and other organisations worldwide offered. I would like to express my thanks to the many organisations in North America that, together with peers from around the world, wrote comment letters, participated in discussions, and provided data to the Committee. You have helped us to ensure that the proposals reflect best practices. Your suggestions have helped us to clarify and simplify the proposals.

In our note, we explain that the Committee is pursuing a “hybrid” approach to recognised operational risk capital across jurisdictions for such institutions. Under this hybrid approach, a banking group would be permitted - subject to supervisory approval - to use a combination of stand-alone AMA calculations for significant internationally active banking subsidiaries and an allocated portion of the group-wide AMA capital requirement for its other internationally active subsidiaries. As a consequence: First, a significant, internationally active institution will be expected to calculate its capital needs under the AMA on a stand-alone basis. It will be able to consider a well-reasoned estimate of diversification within its own operations, though not across the rest of its group. Where a significant internationally active institution is a subsidiary of a larger organisation, it will be allowed to rely on resources, data, and parameters calculated at the group level. Second, an institution that is not considered significant could receive approval from its supervisors to apply a capital charge against operational risk that is allocated to it from a group-wide AMA calculation. The principles articulated in the January note are intended to facilitate the implementation efforts. They should, moreover, ease the burden on institutions that adopt the AMA across jurisdictions yet still respect host countries’ laws that may require local subsidiaries to comply with a minimum standard on their own. Achieving this balance should encourage more institutions to improve their management of operational risk and to strive to adopt more advanced approaches as their capabilities grow.
6 Climate Bonds Initiative and UNEP Inquiry into the Design of a Sustainable Financial System (2015) “Scaling up green bond markets for sustainable development”. 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  such a shift is in its infancy and is an area where further research and collaboration is needed to support progress. Experts and financiers in the City and China have a role to play here. The work being done by the Taskforce in its pilot is to be commended. Mobilising private capital today is essential. Almost two thirds of required financing will need to be directed at sustainable projects in developing countries. Governments alone will not be able to meet this challenge. Yet it is not obvious that private investors will naturally fill that gap. For instance, debt instruments issued by emerging market firms often do not fall within the mandate of advanced market investors due to a missing, or too low, credit rating. It is in this context that bilateral partnerships such as the UK-China Taskforce are so important in accelerating progress.

As of June last year, the combined market capitalisation of the top four US coal producers had fallen by 95% since the end of 2010, and three of the top five US firms had filed for bankruptcy. There has also been a similar, albeit less severe, valuation shift for German utilities which have been seen as slow in responding to changes in domestic energy policy designed to shift towards renewables. 1  PRA (2015), The Impact of Climate Change on the UK Insurance Sector, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/prudentialregulation/publication/2015/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-uk-insurance-sector and Scott, M., Van Huizen, J. & Jung, C. The Bank of England’s response to climate change. 98–109 (Bank of England, 2017). 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  The financial risks from climate change are clearly therefore already with us. But more significantly, these risks, both from physical and transition channels, will increase if global temperatures continue to rise or the re-allocation of capital implied by the transition to a ‘well below 2C’ world becomes more significant. I will refrain from spending too much of my time outlining the scale of the challenge given the number of reports published that have highlighted the issue. But the main messages in all of these reports is that if we are to make our climate goals a reality, significant amounts of equity, bank loan, and bond financing will need to become ‘green’.