samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Europe needs a better sharing of private sector risk, in order to channel its abundant savings more effectively towards productive investment. And the equity financing of businesses, across European borders, must be a priority. Europe is lagging far behind in this area: such financing only represents 67% of GDP in the euro area compared with 125% in the United States. The second project, on which we could make progress after the French and German elections that will take place this year, is a collective economic strategy in the euro area. Growth and employment will be stronger in Europe if we combine more structural reforms where they are a priority – in France and Italy for instance –, and more fiscal or wage support in countries with room for manoeuvre – Germany and the Netherlands.In practice, for such a collective economic strategy to exist, the euro area needs to overcome the current sense of distrust; it needs what I would call “a trust deal”. This is why I have proposed, as have others, the creation of an institution to foster confidence, which could consist of a euro area “finance minister”. 5/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  * * * Let me conclude. Jacques Delors, who was President of the European Commission in the late 1980s – early 1990s, used to say that in Europe “we don’t just need firefighters, we need architects”.

Finally, I think it is worth noting that if so-called macro-prudential policies are to be used successfully to improve the resilience of the financial system and to moderate the credit cycle, financial data collection will need to be more flexible in future. Almost certainly the seeds of the next financial crisis will sprout in a different corner of the financial system from this one. Collecting data dedicated to helping fight the last war will not serve, if those emerging risks are to be identified early and dealt with appropriately. Thank you. 6  BIS Review 142/2010
But unlike the market standard agreements addressed in the Protocol, scheme rules and commercial agreements provided by agency banks vary and preserve a good deal of discretion for the FMI or G-SIB acting as a quasi FMI. We are exploring how far that discretion can, or needs to be, constrained. Ultimately, there is a potential collective action problem we need to address. It should be in the interests of FMIs and agency banks to allow the resolution to succeed. After all, in an SPE strategy the legal entity they are dealing with is likely to stay outside resolution. But the temptation must be there, if you can in  4  International Swaps and Derivatives Association (2015) ‘ISDA 2015 Universal Resolution Stay Protocol’. 5  Financial Stability Board (2015) ‘Guidance on Arrangements to Support Operational Continuity in Resolution’. 6  In the US these are known as Financial Market Utilities (FMUs). BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  resolution, to grab collateral or to increase margin calls on an extraordinary basis. This is the behaviour we saw at various points in the crisis. We need to plan to avoid a repeat of that. This brings me to the other consultation paper 7 issued recently by FSB, related to funding in resolution. If it is clear on Monday morning that a bank in resolution can meet its obligations falling due, then the incentive for counterparties to remove liabilities or seize collateral should be reduced. The funding in resolution principles represent a step toward achieving this.

I will repeat something that I have said often before, namely that a well-capitalised banking system is essential to support the economy. No good comes from having a fragile system. The evidence from the Bank of England’s regional agents through their contacts with borrowers among companies is that there is more lending on offer but companies are reluctant and wary about banks, and this picture is consistent with the economy wide figures. Given the evidence of revealed misconduct, we should sadly not be surprised at this wariness, but neither can we be relaxed about it. My second important development comes in the field of life insurance. Insurance as a whole is a vital industry to all of us, performing the essential function of enabling us to manage our risks. Within the insurance industry, life firms provide access to retirement income and longterm savings as well as financial protection against mortality. Earlier this year the Government made a major announcement on annuities, which are an important part of retirement provisions. Like many people, this struck me as a sensible announcement, pointing to a clear need for change. The big question of course, is what next – or if not that,  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  what else? We heard something on that earlier this week.
Indeed, as part of the Eurosystem, as a participant in the Single Supervisory Mechanism and given its responsibility for the proper functioning and stability of the financial system, the Banco de España regularly collects a wealth of financial and supervisory information from credit institutions, which is key to performing all our duties. This information is also necessary for strengthening the performance of other functions of the Banco de España, such as the conduct of monetary policy, the oversight of the stability of the financial system and the compilation of statistics. We are also responsible for designing financial reporting as efficiently as possible and, in this endeavour, both the Banco de España and the European authorities have some substantial challenges ahead. I shall refer to these later. Some of the key statistics produced by the Banco de España are present in the Spanish National Statistical Plan (the PEN, as we refer to it). They include some macroeconomic statistics, such as the balance of payments and the financial accounts, which complement and have to be consistent with those compiled by INE. In this regard, I think we can be proud of the long-standing tradition of close and candid cooperation between our two institutions. Joint discussion continuously enriches our professionals, and their efforts to ensure the consistency and complementarity of the results are a guarantee of the quality of the statistical system.

This is a clear example of how the quality of the overall statistical system is higher than what the mere sum of independent products would be, were such products not well-connected. Micro data as the Holy Grail We can all agree that statistics have been undergoing a revolution in the last few years. Important technological advances have increased the ability to process huge amounts of data and productivity in this area has surged: policymakers and analysts have more and more information and details at their fingertips and now have the possibility of applying  1  more sophisticated models, designing more refined economic policy responses and answering more complex questions. Some of these changes stem from the experience of the Great Financial Crisis of the last decade. Then it was felt that only the availability of detailed information on economic agents’ positions (including cross-border ones) would allow the relevant policy authorities to thoroughly analyse the exposures of an increasingly interconnected global financial system and to better understand the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the massive deleveraging that followed. To close these gaps, the Eurosystem promoted a number of projects based on granular information. These included AnaCredit (to build up a Central Credit Register at the European level), the Securities Holding Statistics Database (which contains exhaustive security-by-security information on European portfolios) and Money Markets Statistical Reporting, where daily information at the transaction level is collected from financial institutions. In Spain, we also learned the lesson.
As banks expand their risk taking activities, both on balance sheet and off balance sheet, some banks have become much larger and more complex, thereby rendering themselves “too big to fail”. 10. On the other hand, the proponents of universal banking note that diversification can be beneficial for banks and banking stability. If one area of business underperforms, others can make up for it – making the “whole” more resilient. It can also be argued that banks that are diversified in terms of businesses or geographical operations are better positioned to offer customers the depth and breadth of services these customers require, particularly as 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  economic activities become ever more specialised and global. Broadening customer access to financial products enables increased flows of savings through the system, facilitating efficient investment and economic growth. These advantages are not to be dismissed lightly. 11. The HKMA takes a balanced and pragmatic view on this issue. Rather than mandating the dismantling of banks’ business structure to deal with the potential problems arising from proprietary trading and overly aggressive risk taking by banks, our preferred response is to ensure the proper risk capture and management of those parts of the operations that benefit from low cost funding and yet cause a disproportionate amount of risk. As part of our on-going supervision we need to critically assess whether banks really understand what sort of risks they are taking on and seek to ensure that such risks are managed properly in order to safeguard depositors’ interests.

So I am very grateful for the opportunity to expand on our role here today. I want to cover three main themes. First, I want to explain the Bank's approach to the exercise of monetary policy, and then, second, give you some assessment of the current state of the British economy. And, third, I want to discuss the Bank's other key role - that of maintaining financial stability in the system as a whole. That role is, I think, less well understood than our monetary policy responsibilities. But financial stability is every bit as crucial to our national welfare. So I'd like to spend a few minutes setting out our objectives, and picking up on one or two themes of current concern. Maintaining monetary stability I turn first, though, to the Bank's better known role, that of maintaining monetary stability. Our target for monetary policy is extremely clear. We aim for 2½% inflation in retail prices (excluding mortgage payments) at all times. That target is set by the Chancellor. And it is symmetric: that is to say, we worry as much about being below the target as we do about being above it. That makes sense because the problems of severe deflation are just as great as the problems of severe inflation. Since May 1997, when the current arrangements were put in place, RPIX inflation has averaged 2.3%.
The latest business surveys and economic data point towards some moderation of late, which is 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  not specific to France but also seen in other euro area economies. GDP growth in the first quarter could thus prove somewhat softer than previously anticipated. However, the underlying momentum remains solid and broad-based, and we interpret recent data as reflecting a temporary pull-back from the very strong and above-trend pace recorded in the second half of last year. It does not alter the inflation outlook over the medium term horizon that is relevant for our monetary policy. [slide 6] Against this backdrop, we forecast GDP growth in France to remain robust in 2018, at 1.9%, after 2.0% in 2017, and to stabilize at around 1.6%-1.7% per year in 2019–20, which would remain above potential. Thanks to this performance, the output gap is expected to close in 2019. The engines of growth should be more balanced. Household consumption is expected to accelerate somewhat, with significant gains in the purchasing power of households of + 1.5% to 2% per annum. In particular, the tax measures set out in the budget laws should help to boost household income from the end of 2018. Total investment should lose some momentum but remain a significant contributor to output growth. And as exports pick up, the contribution of external trade should turn neutral. [slide 7] The performance on the labour market has been very encouraging as well.

Other unilateral regulatory initiatives, although not being imposed outside the respective countries, are also charting a path forward that is likely to have wider ramifications, given the significant cross-border operations of the affected institutions. Policy priorities in emerging Asia Let me turn to the policy priorities in emerging Asia. While most emerging economies entered the global financial crisis from a position of strength, policy-makers continue to be challenged by the weaker global economic environment and the effects of the global policy spillovers. While the emerging economies in Asia have been affected by these external developments, most have demonstrated resilience during this period. Let me confine my remarks to the policies that have contributed to this resilience. First, it is the payoff from a decade-long of policies and financial and economic reforms following the Asian financial crisis. Second, it is having an enhanced policy toolkit and the policy flexibility to manoeuvre in this environment. Third is the increased cooperation and collaboration in Asia, in the areas of surveillance, in the assessments of the risks and vulnerabilities to the region, and in the consideration of the policy options to address many of the new challenges. An important policy shift following the Asian financial crisis is to rebalance the economy and to diversify our sources of growth. This has involved wide-ranging policies and reforms to promote domestic demand, in particular domestic consumption and investment activities by the private sector.
Over the past year, we have seen fluctuations in energy prices, among other things, that are caused by the fact that clean energy is not being built up as fast as the use of fossil fuels is being phased out. We may see more similar price effects ahead. We must also be prepared for a situation where some prices might for a transitory period be higher than they will be in the longer run. The main contribution monetary policy can make to climate transition is to ensure low and stable inflation. The transition requires investments – many with uncertain earnings that lie far into the future. It is safer to make those investments in an environment of low and stable inflation. When inflation is low, it is also easier to distinguish between changes in relative prices and the general rise in prices. The signal from, for example, higher carbon prices is easier to capture. This pushes the transition in the right direction. Conclusion Over the past year, inflation has risen to a high level. Developments are reminiscent of the situation 50 years ago. Just like then, the economy has been hit by a cost shock – energy prices have soared. Just like then, the shock has hit us in an environment of strong demand and little spare capacity. But there is also much that is different. Today, we have a solid fiscal policy framework. We have a coordinated wage determination system where both parties attach importance to low unemployment and business profitability.

2023  Economic perspectives Annual address by Governor Ida Wolden Bache to the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank  Thursday 16 February 2023  Economic perspectives 2023  This is a day I have been looking forward to for some time. At long last, we can hold this event as it should be held – at our traditional Norges Bank venue filled to the brim. Three years have passed since last time – three years less ordinary. We have endured a pandemic and the most restrictive measures seen in a time of peace. We have witnessed Russia’s brutal war campaign against Ukraine. The war is a deep tragedy for the people of Ukraine and a dire threat to peace and stability in Europe. Both the war and the pandemic have had far-reaching economic consequences. Over the past year, inflation has reared its head, with inflation rates reaching multi-decade highs. The costs of high inflation have come into clear evidence. What started as a rise in a few prices ended up as a rise in a broad range of goods and services prices. Rapid and unexpected price increases are eroding peoples’ finances and are impacting those with small margins hardest. The surge in inflation is also putting monetary policy and Norges Bank to the test. It is our responsibility to bring it down. That is something I have been mindful of during my first year as central bank governor. The 1970s – high and variable inflation Let us go back in time 50 years.
As a member of that Focus Group, I am happy to be in a position to contribute to this important and promising cause. I have already outlined elsewhere and in a different context a five-prong strategy developed in the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to further co-operation between the two financial systems, which will have the desirable dual effect of enhancing the effectiveness of financial intermediation on the Mainland and maintaining the status of Hong Kong as an international financial centre 6 . The strategy comprises: First, opening doors through CEPA and other forums so that Hong Kong financial institutions can provide the much needed financial services (and competition) on location in the Mainland; Secondly, sustaining the flow of fund raising activities from the Mainland to Hong Kong, not just in the IPO of H-shares but also in bank syndication and debt issuance, and creating channels, for example through QDII schemes, to facilitate the flow of investment funds from the Mainland; Thirdly, creating a mechanism for the marketing of suitable financial instruments (for example CDR of H-shares) on the Mainland to satisfy the enormous investor demand there;  4  The guidance was given to the Drafting Committee for the Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region when Deng Xiaoping addressed the Committee on 16 April 1987. 5  This principle was explained in the viewpoint article "A Basic Law of Finance", which can be found on the HKMA website. (http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/viewpt/20060810e.htm).

This cooperation within Secure Pay has already delivered important results: two sets of recommendations have been issued so far, concerning the security of internet payments in 2013, with an expected compliance of the market by February 2015, and the security of mobile payments in 2014, with recommendations currently being finalized. The final text of the recommendations concerning the security of payment account access service has also been published for information in May 2014 and shared with the EBA, in light of the ongoing revision of the Payment Services Directive. The fact that the European legislator has taken into account large parts of the Secure Pay forum’s recommendations in the review of the Payment Services Directive is for me the proof of the quality of the works led by the forum. I particularly welcome the integration of strong customer authentication in the revised text of the directive, which clearly constitutes a major progress in the security of retail payments. Secure Pay has recently undergone a significant governance change, and will in the future be co-chaired by the European Banking Authority and the European Central Bank. This should further increase cooperation between the oversight and supervision institutions and ease the implementation of recommendations. To conclude – and I will finish there –, I would like to underline how topical this conference is.
The shifts in demand during the pandemic – which are geographical as well as sectoral – may have introduced a degree of dislocation between the two. Another is that the sheer speed of the recovery has thrown some sand in the wheels of the labour market. It’s usual for actual hiring to lag changes in vacancies and, so rapid has been that increase in vacancies, there was bound to be a bit of friction in the process of filling them (see Chart 15). These aren’t mutually exclusive, but the latter would be slightly more benign because it would need only time for things to improve. Once those wheels start to turn, and jobs get allocated, one would expect some of this pressure to abate. 13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  13  Whether that’s the case remains to be seen, however. And, in the meantime, the result is continuing upward pressure on pay. Chart 14 included a survey index of wage growth for new  Chart 19. Wage growth stronger than usual, given the rate of unemployment Annual nominal wage growth, per cent 5 2021  4  employees. Chart 19 plots official numbers for average wage (AWE) growth across the economy as a whole, in the years since the financial crisis,  3 2013-19 2  against the rate of unemployment. Unfortunately, labour market data have been subject to significant distortions during the pandemic.

Overheating at the end of the 1980s and the resulting financial crisis almost doubled long-term unemployment. And, of course, shocks to the national economy of this kind do not spare us citizens in our role as taxpayers either. Problems in the banking sector impact the country’s citizens in several ways A banking crisis thus impacts individual citizens in several ways. Lower or even negative growth leads us, as employees, to run an increased risk of unemployment and to earn lower wages than would otherwise have been the case. When the growth path falls over the longer term, we also have to count on lower pensions. Bank crises also risk being costly to us in our role as taxpayers. If the government is forced to compensate those who have put money into a bank, or even take over and capitalise a bank on the ropes, there will be less funding left for other purposes. Taxes will be higher or public welfare lower – or both. As almost all citizens are also bank customers, they are also impacted more directly. A crisis in the Swedish banking system would lead to higher funding costs for the banks and thus higher lending rates. Customers in a bank needing to be restructured may also need to change bank and negotiate conditions under circumstances that would probably not be particularly favourable. All of this risks leading to major difficulties for households. And this is something that we saw all too many examples of at the start of the 1990s.