samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Bringing this real time perspective to policy evaluations is difficult but crucial if the analysis is to be meaningful (as discussed in Giannone et al. (2004)). 6. See Harrison et al. (2011) for an empirical analysis of the impact of oil price shocks on UK macroeconomic variables, including CPI inflation. 7. See Friedman (1961), Havranek and Rusnak (2013). 8. In the literature, estimates of the policy lag vary. Cloyne and Hurtgen (2016) find that the peak impact of UK monetary policy shocks on inflation comes after two years. 9. This point is emphasised by Broadbent (2021) who illustrates how immediate monetary policy responses to inflationary energy price rises would have threatened to de-stabilise the real economy. See also Tenreyro (2022). 10. As reported in the official statistics, the UK terms of trade have not deteriorated that much over the past year, although the trade statistics (both for prices and volumes) have been affected by methodological changes (and the underlying challenges posed by Covid and Brexit for data collection). Nonetheless, higher international energy prices weigh on domestic demand through their implications for household real income and the real profits of non-energy companies. 11. See ‘Wages and inflation’ in the Bank of England Monetary Policy Report, February 2022  . 12. See Pill (2021). 13. See Broadbent (2022) for a discussion of the issues surrounding central bank forward guidance in a UK context. 14. See Filardo (2014), Rudebusch and Williams (2008). 15.

While much effort has been made to deepen our understanding of and ability to respond to market dislocation since the global financial crisis, the emergence of these problems suggests the Bank and wider central banking community still have some work to do in throwing light on and building resilience in some of the shadow-ier parts of the non-bank financial sector, as emphasised by my colleagues on the FPC and internationally in the FSB. But that is for the future. Right now, we are dealing with the problems that pose an immediate threat. The intervention announced yesterday by the Bank is intended to facilitate an orderly adjustment in the positions and structures that were threatening to generate dysfunction in that market segment. By acting in the gilt market to facilitate the necessary reduction of leverage – or at least creating an environment where that reduction can take place – the Bank is preventing a self-sustaining vicious spiral of collateral calls, forced sales and disappearing liquidity from emerging in a core segment of the financial markets. Restoring market functioning helps reduce any risks from contagion to credit conditions for UK households and businesses. The intervention is targeted specifically at that market segment where problems were emerging. And it is time-limited, because the Bank buys assets in order to sell them on afterwards, thereby helping the orderly re-shuffling of holdings of and exposures to longer-dated gilts that needs to  Page 4  take place. These operations do not create central bank money on a lasting basis.
Against this background, the mid-term review of the Lisbon strategy in 2005 led to a re-launch of the process by shifting the strategy’s focus more strongly on growth and employment. As an outcome of this process, all EU countries have prepared so-called National Reform Programmes that outline structural reform steps for the years 2005-2008 20 . These measures are designed to, among other things, enhance the sustainability and quality of public finances, promote flexible labour and product markets, support a favourable business environment, and ensure a fully operational EU internal market, including the markets for energy and services. Applying comprehensive structural reforms is of particular importance for the euro area countries, in order to increase wage and price flexibility and the resilience to shocks, facilitate structural adjustment, raise potential output growth and job creation, and reduce price pressures, thereby facilitating the task of the single monetary policy. Also the ECB’s monetary policy has a role to play in supporting the implementation of structural reforms. A credible monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability in the medium term contributes to a stable economic environment. In a stable macroeconomic context, it is not only easier to single out where reforms are needed, but the benefits of reforms are also made more visible, thus supporting their acceptance. In turn, structural reforms can also have important consequences for the transmission of a monetary policy which is committed to price stability.

Investment plans for 1997 appear to be less ambitious on the whole compared with capital spending plans at the same period in 1996. Nevertheless, the business leaders polled in January were more confident about future activity than they were a few months earlier. This could mean that previously postponed investment plans may be implemented in the coming months. However, plans for increasing output capacity remained few and far between, owing to the spare capacity currently available, and depend on stronger growth in demand. Retail sales in January were up markedly over December 1996, and only slightly down on the exceptionally high level recorded a year earlier. Employment levels remained stable in nearly all industrial sectors. They showed only a slight change in the services and retail sectors, but there were further falls in the building industry. BIS Review 23/1997
The general public’s expectations of inflation two years ahead are below 2%, which suggests that the inflation targeting policy has achieved credibility – a matter that is crucial for monetary policy’s ability to produce good results. The foundation for monetary policy credibility has been strengthened in that the new legislation in force from the beginning of this year has created a more independent central bank. Maintaining price stability is now the Riksbank’s statutory function. The Riksbank has defined its target as being to keep annual inflation, expressed as the change in the consumer price index (CPI), at 2%. The ambition to keep inflation low stems from the insights about inflation’s harmful effects on the economy – that higher growth and employment cannot be generated in the longer run by means of higher inflation. It is other matters, such as how the economy functions, achievements in technology and the educational system, that determine those factors. The best way for monetary policy to contribute to high growth and employment is therefore to improve the long-term growth potential via low inflation. To achieve its objective, the Riksbank uses its instrumental rate, the repo rate. If the Riksbank’s monetary stance is unduly expansionary, that is, if the repo rate is too low to ensure macroeconomic balance, in time the economy will be liable to overheat. Demand then grows more rapidly than production capacity and this generates inflationary pressures.

This calls for an adjustment of demand to the economy’s productive capacity. It is important that structural measures which primarily improve the workings of the economy are implemented in good time. The good consumption trend can then be met by rising output and high growth can be maintained without this necessarily leading to unduly high inflation. As I have already made clear on several occasions, I consider that tax cuts, in tune with the established guidelines for budget policy, are motivated. The tax-to-GDP ratio has risen in recent years as a consequence of the growth of private consumption and rising wage bills; today the ratio is above 50%. The Swedish economy would probably function better with lower taxes. The reforms that are needed in the tax system – as well as those I consider should occur in the labour market – can be arranged, however, in such a way that they promote the aims of stabilisation policy. Tax cuts in Sweden are probably needed that confer long-term benefits on both the supply and the demand side of the economy; a long-term tax reform with those ambitions would be desirable. In the present situation, however, with growth seemingly reaching around 3.5% this year and 3% in 2000, tax cuts and labour market reforms that primarily favour the supply side would increase the opportunities for good growth without contributing to increased inflationary pressure. That would lessen the risk of overheating and facilitate the interaction of fiscal and monetary policies.
Embedding resolution into the public policy objectives of financial regulation matters for two reasons relevant to competition: first, because, to repeat, exit enables entry; and, second, because if, as we will, we require new entrants to satisfy us on their resolvability in order to be authorised, we can lower the barriers and costs of opening for business. We have already started to put this new approach into operation. Resolution of failed firms consistent with the public policy objectives is one key plank of the new approach to financial regulation. Another key plank concerns the macro-prudential approach to regulation. The legislation will establish the Financial Policy Committee (FPC), charged with the primary objective of identifying, monitoring and taking action to remove or reduce systemic risks with a view to protecting and enhancing the resilience of the UK financial system. In June, the Chancellor announced that the government would amend the Bill to give the FPC a secondary objective so that subject to being content on the first objective, it should support the economic policy of the government, including its objectives for growth and employment. Currently, the FPC is acting in an interim capacity to undertake, as far as possible, the future statutory FPC’s macro-prudential role. Macro-prudential regulation is focused on protecting the financial system as a whole. In a very “big picture” sense, there is nothing new about this activity. The problems of the last five years have emphasised the close links between the health and behaviour of banks and the condition of the economy.

Indeed, in recent times, especially in the aftermath of Asian crisis in late 1990s, we have seen several countries amending the laws governing their central banks. Such amendments have given them greater independence in the conduct of monetary policy. The current world trends have required the central banks to be transparent and accountable. This would be attained by ensuring a greater disclosure policy on their decisions. I have no doubt that today’s Seminar will lead to a healthy discussion and exchange of views on comparative policies among SEACEN member central banks and monetary authorities in selected areas of corporate governance. The first session will cover strategic planning process for central banks, for which a background paper has been prepared in consultation with the SEACEN Centre. I hope the paper will be a useful document to initiate fruitful discussion on the issue of strategic planning for central banks. In addition, Mr Gavin Bingham, Head of International Liaison, Bank for International Settlement, will present an overview of current issues and practices relating to this topic. I am confident that the participants would contribute with their country specific experiences on Central Bank Governance and specifically on their experiences with the formulation and implementation of Strategic Plans in the respective central banks. The second session will cover selected Central Bank Governance issues and will serve as a follow-up to the SEACEN-BIS Seminar on Central Bank Governance conducted in Langkawi, Malaysia in February 2004.
Common mistakes that led to consumers being scammed include sharing bank account passwords or PIN numbers, not paying attention to the legitimacy of a website before making transactions and also clicking on suspicious links – all of these enable scammers to commit fraud more easily. In our recent publication of the Financial Stability Report, we shared some of the findings of the Financial Capability and Demand survey which Bank Negara conducted recently. Among other findings from the survey, a troubling finding is that, more than a third or 37% of respondents stated that they have no issue or are willing to share their bank accounts passwords or PIN numbers with their close friends. This reflects the lack of understanding on the importance of being vigilance and safeguarding our banking information. As financial transactions and services become increasingly digitalised, Malaysians must learn to be more responsible in managing their financial information, well-informed and sensible in assessing investment opportunities, while at the same time increase their vigilance against scams. This is where you, as practitioners, could enhance your role as consumers advocates. It is important for financial planners to continuously provide awareness and alert clients against the latest frauds and scams. Public awareness, alongside preventive measures and coordinated enforcement actions, must be elevated to combat this crime and safeguard the hard-earned finances of Malaysians.

These clearly create opportunities to improve payment services in at least three ways, by:  2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  Harnessing the underlying blockchain technology to improve or supplement existing processes: the Banque de France is already employing blockchain technology to improve industry processes. For example, we are using a blockchain project called MADRE to assign SEPA Creditor Identifiers, which are needed for creditors to issue direct debits. Helping to remedy market inefficiencies: this could be done in the area of international multi-currency payments, for example, with a view to improving the conditions under which individuals transfer funds abroad. Diversifying project financing methods: a prime example would be ICOs, which have enabled swift and large-scale fundraising in the network technologies sector in the past two years. 3. Yet for all that, can crypto-assets become true currencies that will revolutionise our payment system, providing the decisive innovation that will lead us to the cashless society that some people are predicting and even hoping for? For the time being, this seems unlikely because existing crypto-assets are far from perfect. As many central bankers have pointed out, today’s crypto-assets do not satisfactorily offer the qualities expected of a currency and cannot be considered as such: First, their value fluctuates enormously, preventing them from being used as units of account. As a result, very few prices are denominated in crypto-assets and not many large brick-and-mortar or online retailers accept bitcoin for example, although there are some exceptions [i.e.
Since its inception, SAMA has supported banks to develop human resources by establishing the Institute of Banking, which contributes to training and qualifying a large number of national cadres in the financial services sector. The Institute continues to professionally exercise this role and make efforts to cope with the developments in the financial and banking sector by providing information solutions and diverse educational programs consistent with individual bank needs. The Institute's programs have covered important banking fields, such as treasury, investment and credit, and contributed effectively to developing and qualifying national cadres. Thus, Saudization in the banking sector exceeded 85 percent by the end of the first half of 2006. Dear Audience, These developments, which have diversified and expanded the services provided in the Saudi market, have given rise to substantial challenges to financial institutions. One of the most important challenges is to provide a sufficient number of qualified human resources to meet the needs of these institutions. Despite the employment efforts made by banks to cope with this expansion, and though 4,246 employees were appointed during the first half of 2006, the total needs of these institutions are still not satisfied. Hence, SAMA has promptly exerted expeditious efforts in search for solutions to these challenges. To this end, it has instructed the Institute of Banking to study the situation and propose practical solutions to help banks bridge such gap over both the short and long terms.

The "Banker" program comes as a solution complementary to the study programs arranged by educational institutions, and a parallel to the banks' direct efforts in attracting and employing national cadres. We are gathering here today to celebrate the opening of the first course of this integrated program, which hopefully will provide the financial institutions with needed human resources, and offer good job opportunities for the youth of our homeland. In conclusion, I can only reiterate my thanks to all those who contributed to accomplishing the "Banker" program, which I hope will continue to successfully achieve the objectives for which it has been established. Thank you for listening. BIS Review 125/2006  1
On the basis of current information and prevailing futures prices for oil, annual HICP inflation is expected to remain very low or negative in the months ahead. Supported by the favourable impact of our recent monetary policy measures on aggregate demand, the impact of the lower euro exchange rate and the assumption of somewhat higher oil prices in the years ahead, inflation rates are expected to start increasing gradually later in 2015. This assessment is also broadly reflected in the March 2015 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation at 0.0% in 2015, 1.5% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017. In comparison with the December 2014 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the inflation projection for 2015 has been revised downwards, mainly reflecting the fall in oil prices. In contrast, the inflation projection for 2016 has been revised slightly upwards, also reflecting the expected impact of our recent monetary policy measures. The Governing Council will continue to closely monitor the risks to the outlook for price developments over the medium term. In this context, we will focus in particular on the passthrough of our monetary policy measures, geopolitical developments, and exchange rate and energy price developments. When discussing the economic outlook and the new projections, the Governing Council acknowledged that the staff projections are conditional on the full implementation of all our policy measures. Moreover, the March staff projections extend the horizon to 2017.

One of the key changes will be the creation of the UK Common Credit Message (CCM).The proposed CCM would provide a set of definitions, structures and rules for inputting data into a payment message for Payment Service Providers and users. Domestic adoption of the CCM will ensure that the majority of the content in high-value and retail payments is aligned, streamlining processes for payment services providers and potentially enabling rerouting of payments between different payments systems in the event of operational disruption. Other benefits arising from ISO adoption will be much improved information concerning the identities of those in payment transactions. This will include the adoption of Legal Entity Identifiers (LEIs), which when rolled out more widely have the potential to enable banks and non-bank payment service providers to deploy next-generation fraud prevention measures. The Bank will ensure that this functionality is in place but it will be up to industry to deliver these enhanced services for customers. As with the overall RTGS Programme the Bank is committed to proactively engaging with industry to get this right. A consultation on ISO 20022 closed in July 2018 and the Bank, in collaboration with the NPSO, is reviewing the responses received. There will be an update on next steps and how the Bank will structure future ISO engagement towards the end of the year. We are also maintaining an active dialogue with the NPSO as it takes forward plans for the New Payments Architecture which will also deploy on ISO 20022.
The focus of their concerns shifted from future profitability to future survival. CDS premia rose to unprecedented levels (Chart 6), bank equity prices fell sharply and the money markets seized up. Interbank lending spreads widened dramatically (Chart 7) and lending became almost entirely concentrated in the overnight market. The shortening of interbank maturities generated a dangerous “snowball” effect as maturing term funding had to be rolled overnight. It was to tackle that wider loss of confidence that the UK authorities announced on 8th of October its comprehensive package of support for recapitalisation, guaranteed funding and enhanced liquidity. It was designed to remove solvency fears by ensuring that banks had more than sufficient capital to survive a severe economic downturn and thus to enable them to continue to lend on normal criteria to good credits. The new capital and the government guaranteed borrowing and liquidity support was designed to ensure and be seen to ensure that banks would be able to sustain their businesses through a downturn. With the banking system fully solvent, guarantees could be extended without exposing taxpayer to unacceptable risks. In a remarkable show of international consensus, a similar approach was quickly adopted by many other countries both in the US and EU and more widely. Looking ahead The early signs suggest that the package is underpinning the banking system both directly and as a demonstration of the authorities’ determination to do whatever is needed to reestablish confidence. In particular CDS premia for banks have fallen markedly (Chart 6) since the package was announced.

Flexible exchange rate serves as a cushion against external shocks, while careful implementation of macroprudential policies and capital flow management options stand ready to preserve financial balance. Currently, Thailand has strong external position with international reserves exceeding the international benchmark for reserve adequacy. The latest data indicate that reserve to short-term debt ratio is at 2.7, reassuring that the policies being implemented are capable of safeguarding the economy against capital flow risks. 5. Growth prospects  Although Thailand has averaged near zero growth in the past three quarters, strong fundamentals combined with overall stability have contributed to the ongoing recovery of Thai economy and, hence, to future growth. Looking ahead, the Bank of Thailand anticipates GDP to expand by 4.8% next year. The revival of private sector confidence, after political clarity, will encourage private consumption and investment. At the same time, the resumption of a fullyfunctioning government allows government spending to further boost the economy. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches