For the advanced economies, it is the uncertainty about the timing of exit policy, and whether the commitment to fiscal consolidation by the major economies can be sustained given the adverse implications for growth. For emerging markets, there is uncertainty about the policy approach that emerging markets will use to manage large capital inflows particularly in Asia. This involves the policy choice between exchange rate management, monetary policy, and the use of macro-prudential and capital control. In my view, uncertainty about policy has been of most concern for financial markets, resulting in increased volatility and a constant shift in investor sentiment between risk aversion and risk appetite. As for Thailand, in addition to the global uncertainties, we also have our own home-grown uncertainty linked to domestic political developments, which have added another dimension of risk to economic recovery and to the prospect of Thailand’s growth in the longer-term. How has the Thai economy performed so far amidst all this risk and challenges? Today, an important decision was made by the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee to begin a process of policy normalization by raising the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50 percent. The decision represents the first increase in fifteen months since the policy rate was reduced cumulatively by 2.5 percentage points to cushion the economy from the global recession. But more importantly, it also marks an important turning point in our assessment of the economy’s growth and inflation outlook, taking into account the impact of the political situation.

It is therefore more  2  Source: Record of the November 2016 Financial Policy Committee Meetings published 6 December 2016 http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/records/fpc/pdf/2016/record1612.pdf 3 http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pra/Pages/publications/ss/2016/ss1816.aspx 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  difficult for insurers to assess credit and other risks. Investing in and managing these assets also requires different skills. For example, when bonds are downgraded, an insurer may expect to be able to sell them. But when a direct investment begins to go wrong, the insurer will probably only be able to sell at a fire-sale price. It needs the capability to renegotiate and restructure the debt. One particular area of growth has been equity release mortgage lending. Life insurers take on almost all of the flow of new equity release mortgages in the UK. This now stands at around £ billion or 1.4% of non-linked assets. We published a discussion paper on Equity Release Mortgages last year. A typical such mortgage is a loan to an older borrower that does not require regular interest payments. Instead interest accrues over time and is repaid, together with the principal, from the proceeds of the sale of the house when the loan becomes due. That is usually when the borrower either dies or goes into long-term care. Borrowers have a ‘no negative equity guarantee’. It protects them from being required to pay back any more than the value of their property. In economic terms, the insurer has sold the borrower a put option on the house.