samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But it’s also clear that a significant speed bump in transition is uncertainty about how the switch to new rates will be treated under the huge range of existing regulations that weren’t written with this kind of event in mind. The official sector must pave the way for transition by eliminating that uncertainty. Paving over the speed bumps, if you will. Since my last speech about LIBOR, the official sector has worked closely with the ARRC and others to provide clear guidance and offer the prospect of relief from existing rules. There is a final rule on swap margins for legacy swaps that transition away from LIBOR,16 a proposed CFPB rule on transitioning consumer credit,17 accounting guidance from the FASB and the SEC,18 tax guidance from the IRS,19 and relief from the CFTC.20 The Federal Housing Finance Administration has taken a number of actions, including prohibiting the Federal Home Loan Banks from entering into LIBOR transactions or investments.21 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will stop accepting LIBOR-based ARMs by the end of this year22 and have created new ARM products indexed to the 30-day SOFR average.23 The supervisory agencies have also eliminated uncertainty about what stance they will be taking on LIBOR transition in their supervisory and examination work—they’ve said very clearly they’ll be focusing on it, and every supervised firm needs to focus on it too.

Those new concerns and risks have understandably pushed many welllaid plans into the background, and the pandemic has had such far-reaching effects that all sorts of things we thought we knew would happen have become uncertain. What I want to do today is remind you all that despite everything else that’s happening, the end of LIBOR is still coming. Exactly how that happens is still uncertain, but the best response to uncertainty about tomorrow is to take decisive action today. Since my speech last year, there has been substantial progress in addressing some of the uncertainties that surrounded LIBOR transition, even as new uncertainties have arisen. Now, many lawyers love uncertainty. If everything were crystal clear, what would we spend our time arguing about? I have said before that the end of LIBOR presents a rather frightening—or awe inspiring, depending on your perspective—litigation risk. But it’s not just litigation risk. The LIBOR transition encompasses a whole panoply of risks. Yes, legal risk, but also operational risk, credit risk, regulatory risk, reputational risk, you name it—LIBOR has it all. So the possibility of a failed LIBOR transition is something that should keep all of us up at night. But let’s try and stay positive in these rather dark times—let’s talk about what progress has been made, and what you can do now to minimize the uncertainties that remain. My remarks will focus on the transition in the United States for U.S. dollar LIBOR, but I will touch on some international developments that are relevant to that transition.
Dimitar Radev: Accession to the euro area - a catalyst for social and economic prosperity Summary of a statement by Mr Dimitar Radev, Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, at the Annual Government Meets the Business conference, Sofia, 29 January 2019. * * * During the Annual Government Meets the Business conference dedicated to Bulgaria’s path to the eurozone, the Bulgarian National Bank’s Governor, Mr. Dimitar Radev, outlined the activities of the central bank in this process and the anticipated effects for the economy and the business from the national currency’s entry into the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) and the adoption of the euro in Bulgaria. Provisionally, the work will be conducted in two stages: a short- and long-term. The short-term stage is linked to the preparation for simultaneous accession to the Banking Union and lev’s entry into ERM II. The second stage is Bulgaria joining the euro area. Mr. Radev underlined that the BNB is currently focused on the first stage, the outcomes of which will determine the next steps to follow. In terms of content, the first stage consists in joining the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Mechanism. As regards the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the BNB is concentrated on three work blocks. The first one is creating the necessary regulatory framework. Overall, work in this direction was completed with the adoption of the necessary package of legislative amendments by the National Assembly at the end of last year.

The BNB Governor also outlined the second work block in this direction, on which the BNB is currently working, i.e., the overall framework of determining the amount of funds to be contributed by banks to the Single Resolution Fund and the amount and way of transferring funds from the Bank Resolution Fund in Bulgaria, which was set up in 2015, to the Single Resolution Fund. The third work block covers the overall activity of planning and conducting resolution activities, including the distribution of responsibilities and tasks between the Single Resolution Board and the BNB after our country joins the Banking Union. With regard to the expected effects on the economy and the business, the BNB Governor highlighted that it was positive to reaffirm Bulgaria’s strategic course, and that the process is already being filled with content and specific timeframe. The whole process stands as a positive counterbalance against the more general uncertainty from the global and European economic environment. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  Among the more direct positive effects from this first stage on the path to the euro area is the anticipated improvement of the country’s credit rating, as announced by the credit agencies, should the process run successfully in the short-term. That would improve the funding conditions in the country. At the same time, the effects of joining ERM II will not be tangible in regard to the macroeconomic policy and neither will our monetary regime change.
With regard to institutions and groups, which have not been classified as significant and do not operate cross border, the national resolution authorities exercise fully their powers for resolution planning, assessing resolvability and the possibility to address the impediments to a resolution, as well as the resolution actions. At the same time, in order to ensure the effective and consistent implementation of the resolution framework, the SRB issues guidance and general instructions to the national resolution authorities regarding the performance of the tasks and adoption of resolution decisions. Within the SRB, the national resolution financing mechanisms are replaced by the Single Resolution Fund (SRF), where the credit institutions from the participating Member States make ex-ante, and if needed, ex-post contributions. The decisions about determining the amount of banks’ contributions to the SRF and about the SRF funds management are taken by the SRB. It is the national resolution authorities that are responsible for informing the banks about their calculated individual contributions and for raising and transferring the contributions to the SRF. Using the funds to finance the resolution of failing credit institutions within the Banking Union is an exceptional power conferred to the SRB. The SRB will perform this function with regard to both the banks in Bulgaria which are directly supervised by the ECB and the banks for which the BNB continues to be, even within the SRM, the resolution authority with direct powers.

By 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  decision of the BNB Governing Council, Mr. Kalin Hristov, Deputy Governor in charge of the Issue Department, is designated as the BNB representative at the SRB with a voting right in the plenary session and with rights and obligations as all other non-executive members when participating in the SRB extended executive session. The distribution of the functions and tasks between SRB and the national resolution authorities is in line with the distribution of the supervisory functions between the ECB and the supervisory authorities of the participating Member States. The SRB takes decisions on any matter concerning resolution planning and taking resolution actions with regard to the significant entities or groups falling under the ECB direct supervision and with respect to the cross-border groups within the Banking Union. In this process the national resolution authorities assist the SRB and following the decisions take the relevant actions or adopt their own decisions for implementing the SRB decisions and guidance. For the purposes of the close cooperation, the BNB has designated its representatives as members of the Internal Resolution Teams, which are set up for each entity or group within the scope of the SRB direct powers. The Internal Resolution Teams assist the SRB in the performance of its functions; draw up the documents for the meetings of the extended executive session and carry out daily communication and coordination between the SRB experts and the national resolution authorities.
Research conducted by Banco de España staff using micro data shows that the in the first half of March, just after the outbreak of the pandemic, the sensitivity of the volume of new loans granted by each bank to its capital ratio doubled. This suggested that banks required a higher level of solvency in order to maintain a constant flow of new credit. However, since the second half of March, following the introduction of the public guarantee facilities and the higher flexibility afforded by prudential regulation, this sensitivity returned to its pre-crisis level. The evidence suggests that these measures have contributed to expanding credit supply through the relaxation of capital constraints. 8  Additionally, the terms and conditions of loans arranged under the public guarantee programme have been more favourable than those of comparable loan operations without this guarantee conducted both before and during the pandemic. In particular, interest rates on guaranteed loans are lower than those charged on other loans, and the average loan maturity is more than three years longer. This change in the maturity profile in firms’ liabilities will help them to reduce refinancing risks in the coming years. Firms, mostly large corporates, have also covered part of their financing needs through the issuance of fixed income securities, following the improvement in credit conditions in these markets. However, the share of new funds from this market was lower than in the pre-crisis period, especially in the case of both firms belonging to sectors hardest hit by the crisis and comparatively smaller firms.

More than 6 pp of this change corresponds to downgrades within the investment-grade category, almost 5 pp to movements within the high-yield category, and less than 3pp to a downgrade from investment grade to high yield. Downgrades, which have decelerated in recent months, have affected to a smaller share of firms in comparison to the global financial crisis. A similar picture is observed both at the European and global levels. However, we cannot rule out another wave of rating downgrades if economic outlook deteriorates significantly. Past experience shows that extensive credit rating downgrades below investment grade in the corporate sector can generate adverse second-round effects that exacerbate crises. A recent study by the European Systemic Risk Board illustrates how important this vulnerability may be6. Specifically, it is estimated that investment funds and insurance companies hold the bulk of BBB rated corporate debt holdings, one-third of which are associated with sectors considered to be pandemic-sensitive. A large-scale downgrading of this debt to below investment-grade status would entail considerable potential losses for the entire European Union financial system. Credit rating agencies play a fundamental role in this process. Accordingly, when making their assessments, they need to take into account the long-term outlook for the corporations concerned and avoid excessively procyclical behaviour. Indeed, this time round, credit rating agencies appear to have been more cautious than in the global financial crisis.
The dynamic of current developments in the global economy coerces both, the Bank of Albania in one side and the media on the other one, to be more responsible and more devoted in informing the public in a prompt, transparent and open manner. I wish that our cooperation, which is at the service of best public interest, will continue to follow the same model in 2023 as well. You will find that our institution remains a loyal and transparent partner, which is available to share the necessary information and clarifications. Our policies and decisions and their impact, as well as the situation regarding the financial soundness of the banking system and the financial sector, overall, will be at the heart of our ongoing communications. Honourable participants, Financial literacy and research are at the focus of the Bank of Albania's undertakings. They help us to successfully draft, implement, and convey policies and decisions in order to safeguard price and financial stability in Albania. Education and scientific research are conducted to understand economic events, as well as to enhance Bank of Albania's trustworthiness and expand communication with the economy, financial market, and the public. In a broader sense, researching, comprehending and interpreting the economic and financial events are a precondition to ensure the socioeconomic prosperity of Albania and increase the well-being of its citizens. The universities and academia play a key role in both these fields.

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The evaluation available with partial data for output and domestic expenditure over the second quarter of this year is that domestic activity continues to be strong, exceeding projections in the last Monetary Policy Report of May. In particular, the monthly index of economic activity IMACEC grew at an annual average rate of 5.7% in April/May, spreading to the various components of aggregate demand, namely private consumption, public consumption, fixed capital investment and exports of goods and services, especially noncopper. The baseline scenario in May’s Monetary Policy Report projected for this year a growth rate in the range of 5% to 6%, biased upward. With the evidence accumulated this year so far, the probability that the risks considered in said Report will materialize increases,  BIS Review 87/2007  3  taking this year’s growth to the upper part of the range. Important elements to consider are the strength of consumption and the recovered dynamism of investment. Private-sector expectations have internalized this higher growth expectations in their 2007 GDP projections. The aggravation of natural gas restrictions, combined with low rainfall, has increased the risk of energy shortage and higher costs. For the moment, the impact is believed to be nonsignificant, except obvious effects on electricity, gas and water, and have concentrated mainly in smaller value added from electric generation. However, this is an element of risk in the internal scenario that must be monitored with special care, in particular because of its medium-term implications.

Article 9 of the new NBL defines a wider scope of possible transactions. This allows the National Bank to further optimise the structure of its investments with a view to specific central bank needs. As part of this process, we are also evaluating the possibility of enlarging the investment universe. However, such an extension would raise a number of fundamental questions that will first need to be examined. Before the new law enters into force, we will establish and publish investment policy directives setting out how the Governing Board plans to make use of the extended investment policy scope. While our assets have already been managed largely in conformity with the principles of modern asset management, improvements were nevertheless called for. It was essential to bring our internal investment and risk control processes into line with the new legal framework. The opportunities for diversification brought about by additional investment instruments would, in principle, reduce the market risk of the investments. At the same time, though, the SNB would incur new risks, e.g. additional credit risks. In addition, corporate governance is to be enhanced. The primary goal is to segregate powers as far as possible: firstly between monetary policy and investment policy operations, secondly between investment strategy and its implementation through asset management, and thirdly between risk taking and risk controlling. There are limits to the principle of segregation of powers insofar as the Governing Board is responsible both for monetary policy and investment policy.
And incredulity is Kryptonite for central banking Supermen (and the odd Superwoman), rendering ineffective their policies and unaccountable their actions. Building trust and legitimacy is among the most pressing issues facing central banks today. Tonight, I want to explore one avenue for doing so – rethinking how and with whom central banks engage. There has been a revolution in central bank communications over recent years, with much wider and deeper 6  engagement with society. That has been essential in building central bank trust and credibility during good times and protecting central bank legitimacy and independence during bad. But two recent developments mean that central banks’ engagement strategies may need to be widened and deepened. First, the global financial crisis has dealt a trust-busting blow to many institutions, including 1  The title of the Elvis song is, of course, A Little Less Conversation, A Little More Action (Please). Elvis was not a central banker. Mandelbrot and Hudson (2004). For example, Sentance (2015) and El-Erian (2015). See also Carney (2016). 4 In a recent CFM-CEPR survey of Europe-based macroeconomists, only 45% disagreed with the statement that “central bank independence in the Eurozone and the UK will decline over the next 48 months” (den Haan et al, 2017). 5 See House Bill 3189 (2015). 6 See Warsh (2014) and Blinder et al (2017). 2 3  2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  central banks. Second, the way trust is built has been fundamentally reconfigured.

If so, it is relatively easily rectified. Having identified the different folks, it is then a question of applying different strokes to communicating and engaging with them. One size will not fit all. That probably means the need for engagement policies that are targeted and layered to meet the different needs of different cohorts. This does not mean we should stop communicating with our current audience. Their needs may be well-served by some of the analysis we already produce. But it may call for a particular focus on those cohorts currently out of reach of central banks, such as the young and the less well-off. Both the message and the medium matter here. For the wider public, especially the younger and the less well-off cohorts, Mark Thompson’s synopsis of the changing form of public language – shorter and simpler – may be a good starting point. Over the past year or so, the Bank of England has diversified its stable of publications, with a view to reaching that some of that wider audience. In 2015 the Bank began a staff blog, “Bank Underground”. This was intended to be shorter, simpler and somewhat more opinionated than anything the Bank had previously published. So far, the blogs have received over 700,000 hits. The most popular are amongst the best-read of any Bank publication. That is probably helped by their shorter length (under 1500 words) and greater reach (reading grade scores of 9 mean that they are accessible to up to 30% of the population).
In such circumstances, the Bank intervenes to moderate short term volatility of the exchange rate but not to change the direction dictated by the fundamentals. On the other hand, an improvement in the terms of trade provides an opportunity for the Bank of Zambia to build reserves as it smoothens the rate of appreciation. Finally, Mr President, I wish to congratulate you on the contribution made by manufacturing sector to the GDP growth in 2009. The performance of the sector was favourable, recording a real growth of 2.5% compared with 1.8% in 2008. I am confident that as the economic fundamentals continue to improve, banks are expected to increase lending to the private sector at reduced rates. We therefore expect the sector’s contribution to growth in 2010 to increase. In order to assist the country’s diversification process away from copper, I wish to implore you to seek ways of enhancing productivity in your various sectors as a means improving competiveness of your products for exports. Mr. President, one way by which your members can contribute to increased GDP is through participation in the Multi-Facility Economic Zones (MFEZs) for which the Government has approved establishment of three. You may wish to note that the construction of the Chambishi MFEZ on the Copperbelt has reached an advanced stage while work on the Lusaka South MFEZ is underway. Several enterprises with significant investments are already being established at the Chambishi MFEZ. There is also a proposal for the establishment of the Lumwana MFEZ in North-western province.

The strategy also provides for further enhancements to e-government services, and sets new targets aimed at raising the broadband connectivity ratio and computer literacy rate among households. Malta’s investment promotion efforts meanwhile have been refocused to exploit the island’s strategic location as a bridge between two continents, as well as its potential to serve as a hub for international business in areas such as health care, software development and education. Conclusion The next phase in Malta’s economic history, therefore, promises to be a challenging one, but it should also be an exciting time. For a country with a population of 400,000 and a GDP of under five billion euro, having a major reserve unit as its domestic currency is indeed a significant advantage. We thus have good reason to feel encouraged and, as a people that has suffered repeatedly as a consequence of divisions on the European mainland, also reassured that we are about to reinforce our integration in Europe with full economic and monetary union. For, while the EU has for fifty years brought peace and stability to the peoples of Europe, the Single Market and Economic and Monetary Union have created a congenial environment in which economies can grow and people prosper. 6  BIS Review 14/2008