samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Credit measures amount to some 15% of GDP, mainly around a medium-term liquidity facility to banks conditional on credit expansion. This provides 4-year loans at the 0.5% policy rate, conditional on growth in corporate and consumer lending, increasingly weighted towards SMEs. This has provided the liquidity match to a government scheme providing guarantees to working capital lending under favorable financial terms. c. Liquidity and other market-stabilizing measures add up to some 7% of GDP. These include a mediumto long-term asset purchases that also provide unconventional monetary policy tools. Page 2 of 3  Central Bank of Chile June 2020  d. The response of bank credit to the Central Bank’s FCIC and the government-funded FOGAPE guarantees has been largely positive. Corporate lending has been growing at 10% year-on-year over the last three months, making it the first case of countercyclical lending in recent history. e. In particular, banks have used liquidity to allow the drawdown of credit lines by corporations, 1.2 million rollover operations and 120,000 working capital loans with a SME share largely above historical averages. f.  Long-term interest rates have responded well to monetary policy decisions, forward guidance and non-conventional tools. After the June monetary policy meeting and the release of our Monetary Policy Report, 10-year bond rates dropped some 40 bp. g. Central Bank measures extend well beyond the immediate emergency and are likely to foster economic recovery once containment measures begin to roll back.

Credit institutions are now proceeding more cautiously in their lending to this sector and interest rate terms are changing. Oil prices seem to be stabilising, and in spite of mounting labour market pressures, wage drift has been contained. The Central Bank’s policy rate hike is beginning to spread through the economy; monetary policy is transmitted with an inherent lag in all cases, and this has even been exaggerated by Iceland’s unique economic conditions at present. The most important change in the wake of the September policy hike, however, was that indexed bond yields began to rise at last. It was vital for monetary policy to begin to have an effect in the parts of the economy which showed the clearest signs of overheating, i.e. soaring private consumption growth. Although all these points represent an interesting and positive development, on their own they do not justify changing the policy that the Central Bank has been pursuing. Substantial pressures still exist in the economy, demand is buoyant and there are undeniably sizeable imbalances. These factors must be seen in context. While recent information on the short-term outlook should obviously be observed, it is even more vital to look at indicators for longer-term developments. In effect the Central Bank has no other option – like God’s mills, the Bank’s instruments grind slowly, but grind exceedingly well, if patience and foresightedness guide the way. The Central Bank has made no secret that the current strength of the króna is not sustainable in the long run.
Edward Scicluna: Price stability and beyond – understanding the impact of the ECB’s Strategy Review Speech by Mr Edward Scicluna, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, at the Finance Malta conference, Valletta, 20 July 2021. * * * The European Central Bank (ECB) recently published its new monetary policy strategy, following a year-long review process that encompassed multiple layers of stakeholders – including the public. All the monetary policy instruments and concepts were minutely examined by both the experts and the Governing Council. A number of important changes were made as a result of the review – which was last carried out in 2003. The world has changed since then, and central banks – including the ECB – face numerous new challenges. We need to keep in mind that the ECB’s primary mandate – according to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union – is price stability. However, the Treaty does not specify what price stability means. That is where the ECB’s monetary policy strategy comes in, which quantifies price stability and in turn helps to anchor inflation expectations. For some time, the ECB saw high inflation as being the red flag. This is why the target has till now been an inflation rate of ‘close to but below 2%’. What has changed since 2003? Structural developments have lowered the so-called ‘equilibrium real rate of interest’ – the interest rate that is consistent with inflation at its target rate and where the economy is operating at its optimum.

Liquidity-constrained institutions were forced to sell assets at increasingly distressed prices, which accelerated margin calls for leveraged actors and amplified mark-to-market losses for all holders of the assets, including regulated firms. Here, too, government regulators and supervisors had insufficient data to determine the degree and location of leverage in the financial system. More generally, the crisis revealed that regulators, supervisors, and market participants could not fully measure the extent to which financial institutions and markets were linked. A critical lesson from this crisis is that supervisors and investors need to be able to more quickly evaluate the potential effects, for example, of the possible failure of a specific institution on other large firms through counterparty credit channels; financial markets; payment, clearing, and settlement arrangements; and reliance on common sources of short-term funding. A better system of data collection and aggregation would have manifold benefits, particularly if the data are shared appropriately among financial regulators and with a systemic risk council if one is created. It would enable regulators and a council to assess and compare risks across firms, markets, and products. It would improve risk management by firms themselves by requiring standardized and efficient collection of relevant financial information. It also would enhance the ability of the government to wind down systemically important firms in a prompt and orderly fashion by providing policymakers a clearer view of the potential impacts of different resolution options on the broader financial system.
EU Member States should also make swift progress towards an agreement to create a common European procedure for the administrative winding-up of credit institutions. This procedure would benefit from the instruments developed for the resolution of credit institutions, aiming to maximise the realisable value of the financial assets that make up the bulk of banks’ balance sheets. In Spain, recent experience has shown how inefficient the existing insolvency proceedings for credit institutions are in terms both of timelines and recovery in value. It would, therefore, be desirable for progress to be made in determining an administrative mechanism for winding up credit institutions that maximises the preservation of value and reduces both the timelines and the costs of the existing insolvency proceedings. Conclusion To sum up, our duty, as economic and supervisory authorities, is to continue our close monitoring of financial institutions and markets, to ensure that they continue to provide the necessary flow of credit to the economy, and of financial stability risks stemming from this crisis. We must continue to adopt measures to mitigate those risks and, naturally, stand ready to provide an appropriate European response should such risks materialise. Thank you for your attention. 10

For example, it means that you, the banks, should now raise interest rates on all household deposits, even short-term ones, and share a somewhat larger proportion of your profits with your clients (Michl, 2019a). Let's base our economy on savings, not on debt. A month ago I made a speech at the University of Economics and Business in Prague (Michl, 2023). I would like to follow up on the speech here, recap its main ideas and expand on them in the context of new data on the economy. I started the speech at the University of Economics and Business by saying that I had good news for the public: inflation is finally falling. This is being confirmed. Annual headline inflation peaked in September last year, when it reached 18%. We managed to stop it. In line with our expectations, a gradual downward trend in inflation started in February this year. Inflation fell to 16.7% in February and then to 15%. In April, it stood at 12.7%. The inflation figure for May (11.1%) was published on Monday this week. It should fall to below 10% in annual terms within two months. This is not a victory. In the second half of the year, inflation will still be at a level we must not put up with. We must not get used to it. We must not adapt to it. Interest rates will therefore remain high  1/6  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  for longer.
The separation of power between the legislative, executive and judicial arms of the government safeguards against authority being excessively centralised in any particular party. It is the effective separation of power that provides the checks and balances that ensure that there is strong financial governance at all levels of government. It is the effective separation of power that ensures that the decision maker not only considers his or her self-interest but also that of the society at large. It is the effective separation of power that ensures that the risk of abuse or misuse of public funds is minimized. Therefore, if you want to know the state of public financial governance in a country, the first question to ask is whether there is effective separation of power. To a great extent, the current state of public finances reflects the past track record of financial governance in the public sector. If the state of fiscal health in the crisis-affected economies had been in a better condition, monetary policy would not have had to do so much heavy lifting, QE may not have seen the light of day, and we may now be having better economic growth. When there is an imbalance in macroeconomic policies, or when such  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  policies are used as substitutes for structural reforms, the long-term outcomes will always be sub-optimal, not least because of the distortions and imbalances that are created.

The genius of Wren’s ceiling was its inspired interlocking beams, individually insufficient to span the Sheldonian’s diameter, but collectively arranged so that each could support another, perfectly balancing the forces of those pushing down with others pushing up, resting, ultimately, on the foundations Wren began in 1664. And this is the architecture of Europe: a single market whose participants are interlinked, relying on and complementing each other. Just as Wren’s wooden lattice supports Robert Streater’s art, this market network supports the creativity of Europe. Of course, the weight of the ceiling doesn’t disappear but rests on hidden foundations. So too does the single market rely on invisible supports, some of which are the responsibility of the Bank of England and European regulatory authorities. While these foundations have worked well thus far, they may in time need to be buttressed to realise the full creative potential of the peoples of the United Kingdom and Europe. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  Charts Chart 1: UK trade is two-thirds of GDP  Chart 2: UK receives largest share of EU FDI(a)  Source: OECD  (a) EU-15 countries’ share of average annual FDI inflows into the EU: 1993 to latest. Source: UNCTAD. Chart 3: Global activity of UK financial system unmatched in the European Union…  Chart 4: … and UK financial system is very large relative to GDP(a)  Notes: Bars show share of global activity for cross-border lending, interest rate OTC derivatives and foreign exchange and share of global assets for all other categories.
The exchange rate has been relatively stable after the adjustment that took place in the first half of last year, and the króna is currently somewhat stronger than historical measures would warrant, although it should be admitted that determinism is probably not the most suitable approach for assessing currency developments. One reason for uncertainty about the exchange rate is the large current account deficit, as well as the fact that it can easily be driven by factors over which we have no control, given how closely Iceland’s financial sector is now integrated with global financial markets. A central bank with a legislative and regulatory remit to target inflation is of course pleased with such inflation developments, but would prefer them to be built on a more solid foundation. Domestic demand growth has declined, but rather more slowly than the Bank had hoped. The current account deficit is large and will also contract more slowly than the Bank would have desired. Demand remains buoyant in the housing market and there are indications that the rate of credit growth may be on the increase again. For these and other reasons, the Bank will remain on the alert and not ease its monetary stance until even clearer signs emerge that a lasting change has been established. Equity prices have soared in Iceland in recent years.

In Norway, as in most other countries, this was particularly distinct for credit to enterprises. Both higher spreads and tighter credit standards can have potentially strong contractionary effects on the economy and needed to be counteracted. BIS Review 113/2010  1  Liquidity and capital support was necessary to restore credit flows  The contractionary forces from the financial sector were addressed by providing liquidity and capital to banks, through both regular and unconventional instruments in many countries. Government actions enabled banks to continue to provide credit to households and enterprises. The crisis demonstrated that the transmission mechanism is important for the effectiveness of monetary policy. It also demonstrated that the relationship between price stability and financial stability must be given due attention. In Norges Bank there is close integration between the two areas Norges Bank Monetary Policy and Norges Bank Financial Stability. Norges Bank Financial Stability participates at all meetings in the monetary policy process. This ensures that sufficient attention is given to developments in the financial system. It also provided the necessary insight to make wellinformed assessments of the transmission mechanism during the crisis. Considerable revision of the interest rate forecast during the crisis  The second lesson is that inflation targeting seems to have survived the test. In my view, increased transparency and the efforts made to improve the communication of monetary policy to the general public have been very valuable.
There is an active debate underway on the first of these – the likely future path of innovation. Some have recently argued that the pace of innovation may be declining. 43  The argument here is that many of the  low-hanging fruit from the ICT revolution have already been picked. Diminishing returns to R&D may have set in. And other secular forces – including adverse demographics and rising inequality – may have acted as additional headwinds to growth. 44  This view sometimes goes by the name secular stagnation. 45  An alternative school of thought believes we may instead be on the cusp of a new great wave of innovation, a Fourth Industrial Revolution. 46  This revolution in innovation will, it is said, be jet-propelled by a set of  potentially new GPTs, among them AI, Big Data and robotics. For technology optimists, the story is one of secular innovation, not stagnation. And on this view, the potential gains in productivity and growth could be as large as any of the earlier industrial revolutions. 47  42  Schumpeter (1942). Gordon (2012), Fernald (2014). 44 Summers (2013) and Rachel and Smith (2015). 45 Secular stagnation theory was originally proposed by Hansen (1938) in the aftermath of the Great Depression 46 Brynjolfsson and McAfee (2014) discuss ‘The Second Machine Age’. 47 Brynjolfsson, Rock and Syverson (2017).

Mokyr, J (2011), The Enlightened Economy: Britain and the Industrial Revolution, 1700-1850, Penguin. North, D (1990), Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, Cambridge University Press. North, D (1991), ‘Institutions’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 97-112. Pinker, S (2018), Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, Allen Lane. Romer, P (1990), ‘Endogenous Technological Change’, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, No. 5, Part 2, pp. S71-S102. Productivity Leadership Growth (2017), ‘How good is your business really? Raising our ambitions for business performance’, available at bethebusiness.com Rachel, L and Smith, T (2015), ‘Secular drivers of the global real interest rate’, Bank of England Staff Working Paper, No. 571. Rosling, H (2018), Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World and Why Things Are Better Than You Think, Sceptre. Schneider, P (2018), ‘The UK’s productivity puzzle is in the top tail of the distribution’, Bank Underground. 25  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  25  Schumpeter, J (1942), Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Harper & Brothers. Schwab, K (2017), The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Portfolio Penguin. Solow, R (1956), ‘A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 65-94. Standing, G (2017), Basic Income: And How We Can Make It Happen, Pelican. Stiglitz, J, Sen, A and Fitoussi, J-P (2009), Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress. Smith, A (1776), The Wealth of Nations, W. Strahan and T. Cadell.
The recent repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in the US will allow the creation of “financial super-markets” or one-stop shops that offer banking, securities and insurance services, and further push this trend towards consolidation. Developments in banking In this brave new world, one fact remains unchanged: the need for countries to have sound, resilient banking systems, and strong banks. But countries cannot achieve this by closing their markets and excluding foreign competition, except at a very high price. Instead, they must use competition to strengthen and upgrade their institutions, so that they can hold their own in an increasingly open environment. This is why Singapore has embarked on a five-year bank liberalisation programme, granting foreign banks new licences and more access to the domestic market, lifting foreign ownership restrictions on local banks, and upgrading standards of disclosure and corporate governance of local banks. Corporate governance Strengthening corporate governance is key to upgrading standards of integrity, professionalism and service in banks in Asia. Relationships between shareholders, the board of directors, management, and other stakeholders must all be configured in a way that encourages sound and rigorous banking practices and strengthens corporate performance. To be an effective instrument of corporate governance, the board of directors must act independently, and participate actively in shaping the strategies of the bank. The board should deliberate and decide on issues in the best interests of the bank, its depositors and all its shareholders.

This would facilitate more active trading of SGS and $ bonds and deepen bond market liquidity. Repo transactions with non-residents are presently subject to a $ million consultation limit. Banks have told us that this requirement to consult is a psychological hurdle, even though MAS has assured them that the decisions will be liberal and quick. A non-resident borrowing $ through a repo must first obtain the equivalent amount in SGS, which is a $ asset. Given that MAS Notice 757 already limits a non-resident to no more than $ million of Singapore dollar credit for such investments, allowing banks to transact $ repos freely with non-residents will not lead to a significant net increase in $ credit facilities to non-residents. MAS has therefore decided to lift the $ million consultation limit. Banks in Singapore may now, without prior consultation with MAS, enter into repo transactions in Singapore government securities  BIS Review 130/1999  3  and $ denominated bonds listed on SES with any party, and for any amount, on condition that there is full delivery of collateral. OTC interest rate derivatives OTC interest rate products would open more avenues for non-resident investors to manage their $ interest rate risks arising from investing in the $ debt market. But hitherto MAS has restricted OTC interest rate derivatives, because they could facilitate speculative volatility in the $ In September this year, SIMEX introduced the $ three-month interest rate futures contract.
This is probably more common in knowledge-intensive sectors, such as some branches of the private services sector, and could thus become increasingly important in years to come. Institutional factors may also have significance for the development of average working hours. For instance, in the negotiated central wage agreements from 1998, particularly within manufacturing, working hours were adapted to economic activity, which may have contributed to the recent dampening of average working hours. To sum up, we do not have a clear answer as to exactly how the recent developments in average working hours can be explained. The response of the labour market to changes in economic activity is one of many fields that I think should become subject to further investigation. Another interesting research field is whether the Swedish labour market is able to deal with necessary changes in relative wages. The labour shortages in the public sector, with possible wage increases as a consequence, can have effects on inflation pressures, for instance due to wage spread between different sectors. There is a concern that groups of employees within the public sector, having a favourable labour market situation, could set the norm for up-coming wage agreement negotiations. However, studies in this field indicate that this has not been the case before, although naturally there 3 is always a possibility that this type of pattern could arise in the future.

There is also a possibility that employers would resist demands for higher wage increases to a greater extent than before, as it would no longer be possible for a depreciation of the krona to help maintain competitiveness. Increased mobility in the labour market? If domestic prices and wages are insufficiently flexible when competitive conditions change, the labour force may instead choose to leave a country, region or sector and seek employment elsewhere. And if there is a labour shortage, overheating can to some extent be counteracted by, for instance, bringing in labour from other countries or regions with higher unemployment. An increased mobility in the labour market in terms of both geography and profession could thus compensate for sticky wages. Increased labour market flexibility also implies a better allocation of resources and thus a higher potential growth. Mobility in the labour market plays a major role in the way the labour market functions today and mobility both within and between the member states will probably take on even greater significance if Sweden joins the Eurosystem. How mobile is the Swedish labour market? A high level of mobility in the labour market can be characterised by a good matching between job seekers and job vacancies. The Beveridge Curve, which shows the relationship between unemployment and job vacancies, can be used to illustrate matching in the labour market (see Diagram 5). An increase in the number of vacancies will lead to an increase in the number of jobs and a decline in unemployment.