samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The underlying causes of this phenomenon are interactions, feedback loops and amplifiers that exist within the financial system that can act as turbo chargers in both directions;  •  the aim of macroprudential authorities should be to prevent these dynamics from driving up financial stability risks in good times and driving the system down in bad times. That requires not only setting the overall framework of standards and regulation in the right place to address systemic risk; it requires also adjusting the framework in response to the buildup of risk as the turbo chargers inherent in the financial system begin to kick in; and  •  a recognition that what distinguishes “macroprudential” from “microprudential” and from “macroeconomic” is its objective of financial system stability rather than the instruments it deploys. Macroprudential authorities like the FPC use many of the same instruments as microprudential regulators such as bank capital standards. And in the very final resort, monetary policy may need to be used to counter financial stability risk. But the objective of ensuring the financial system as a whole is stable is different to the objective of promoting the safety and soundness of individual firms or that inflation is kept at target. With the benefit of hindsight, policymakers and regulators should all have paid a great deal more attention to these ideas in the early years of the century while the great financial crisis was in the making.

For example, a team of New York Fed economists published a series earlier this year aimed at understanding the gap in COVID-19 intensity by race and by income.3 And last month, they shared their findings around racial differences in ICU stress during the third wave of COVID-19.4 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  There’s no single or simple solution that can fully address these problems. But, as a nation we can build a stronger foundation so that everyone can fulfill their economic potential, thus better enabling the Federal Reserve to fulfill its mandate. That’s why at the New York Fed—and across the Federal Reserve System—a key area of focus is to better understand economic drivers of health and wellbeing, and to champion promising solutions. We are able to do this in large part through our Community Development efforts to better understand the needs and issues of low- and moderate-income communities throughout our District. Our Community Development team recently adopted a new strategy to concentrate on three key areas: health, household income, and climate.5 Our aim is to connect people, programs, and proposals—especially those focused on fostering racial equity—with the funding needed to promote equitable growth and tackle economic inequality. We are already doing important work in this space and there is so much planned for the future.
Given the economy’s current position and its performance indicators, it is expected to continue its strong and comprehensive growth in the coming years. Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, Inflation, which many countries suffer from, is a global phenomenon and it is also a natural and inevitable result of strong economic growth. In the Kingdom, inflation growth rates accelerated to 4.1 percent in 2007 and to 11.1 percent in July 2008, but then, it decreased to 10.9 percent in August 2008. This has posed a difficult challenge due to the contradiction  BIS Review 124/2008  1  between measures that control inflation, i.e. strict tightening of domestic liquidity and public spending, and the ambitious goals of enhancing economic growth fundamentals that require expansionary fiscal policies to build and complete the various development projects and improve citizens’ standard of living. After having witnessed low levels of inflation, accompanied by moderate and sometimes low economic growth in the past decades, the economy began to grow strongly in response to restructuring reform policies adopted by your wise government since about seven years. Inflationary signs have not shown up until 2006 when the demand side for goods and services began to exceed supply, impacting prices. The wave of high prices worldwide along with high expectations of individuals and institutions have played a role in increasing pressures on available resources and, consequently, higher inflation especially following the considerable improvement in the government income. The phenomenon of inflation has become at the top of your concerns.

The Council has taken a broad range of decisions and measures aimed at restructuring and regulating the economy and streamlining regulations and legislation which would help to upgrade the level of efficiency and competitiveness of the economy and support optimum operation of production factors. The objective has been to provide an advanced regulatory and administrative framework and an environment attractive to domestic and foreign investments. Since the establishment of the Council, more than 60 major restructuring reform decisions have been taken in addition to more than 130 decisions for regulatory, procedural and administrative development. Fortunately, these developments have been accompanied by remarkable improvement in the State budget and in the world oil markets. Consequently, economic performance has obviously improved in recent years. An indicator of this improvement is the private sector’s average annual real growth rate of 5.0 percent and the rise in other non-oil exports by an average annual rate of 23.1 percent to 7.3 percent of GDP at the end of 2007. As a result of these reforms, the Kingdom has gained a high sovereign rating for its financial solvency and also won the United Nations Public Service Award for the year 2008 for developing SADAD (Bill Presentment and Payment System). Moreover, the Kingdom ranked sixteenth among 181 countries worldwide in terms of competition in business and investment performance environment according to Doing Business 2009 Report published recently by IFC and the World Bank.
The rich literature that followed affirms the benefits of central bank announcements in guiding market outcomes, with a number of papers showing that market interest rates have tracked policy rates more closely since the 1990’s.3 Separately, communication was also shown to reduce the size of central bank interventions required to achieve desired policy rates.4 Further, effective communication from central banks on the future path of monetary policy, or forward guidance, can potentially be a powerful tool in a global environment of low nominal rates and reduced policy space. The seminal paper by Eggertsson and Woodford (2003) demonstrated that changes in the expected future conduct of monetary policy can have a substantial effect on the macroeconomy, even when the economy is at the zero lower bound and conventional monetary policy has lost potency. Subsequent empirical research also show that forward guidance can help macroeconomic stabilisation efforts.5 Nevertheless, despite the clear trends and benefits of greater information dissemination, central bank transparency has evolved cautiously including in the region, reflecting in part the irreversibility of communication initiatives. From the perspective of preserving policy integrity and effectiveness in a second best world, more is not necessarily always better. At each step along the way, central banks therefore need to take account of the potential costs against the perceived benefits of greater transparency. Several considerations could be pertinent. First, too much information may crowd out the formation of private sector beliefs.

In the meantime, the low volume of credit to agriculture speaks for constant structural problems that inhibit lending to this sector. Given the geographical coverage with loans, it is observed that 68 percent of the portfolio is concentrated in Tirana. Durrës and Vlora come afterwards, by respectively 8 and 4 percent of the loans portfolio. This reveals the high economic importance of Tirana, and the need for improving the economic infrastructure in the rest of the country. Net foreign assets The foreign currency position of the banking system improved during 2006. Net foreign assets of the banking system amounted to $ 2.4 billion at yearend, recording an annual growth of about $ 440 million. Government demand for money The government account has had an unusual performance during 2006. During the major part of the year, the government demand for money was negative, concentrating the planned domestic borrowing on two last months of the year. The overall deficit financing for 2006 resulted to about ALL 22.6 billion. 5. Financial market and interest rates  Year 2006 was characterised by an increased activity in money and capital market, while the interest rate performance was generally oriented by the Bank of Albania’s monetary policy. Under the conditions of excess liquidity, the interest rates had a downward trend during the first half of the year. The interest rates went upward after the tightening signal of monetary conditions in the second half of the year.
On one hand, because, despite the fact that the rate of increase of doubtful assets has eased, the setting aside of provisions for impairment will continue to weigh down profits. And on the other, because the narrowing of the net interest margin resulting from higher financial costs will hardly be offset by bigger volumes of activity. Accordingly, reducing overheads, which must be quickly and resolutely done, is the main instrument for softening these adverse effects on profits. Spain and the Spanish banking system need their creditors to roll over the funding they have extended to them. The best way of achieving this is to demonstrate day by day that banks and savings banks are healthy and profitable, and that their profit and loss accounts provide them with the flow of funds needed to honour all their commitments. Conclusions I shall conclude by reiterating the central idea in my speech. The government has already taken various measures in the right direction. What is important now is to persevere along these lines, adhering to two underlying principles: budgetary austerity that provides for fiscal consolidation, and structural reforms. As regards the banking sector, those responsible for its supervision and regulation, and most importantly the institutions comprising the sector, must complete the restructuring under way. 6  BIS Review 161/2010  There can be no room for wavering, as that can only give rise to interpretations that undermine our creditors’ confidence. In sum, the reforms in train must be seen through, so as to cement international investors’ confidence. Thank you.

In particular, FSTEP will offer scholarships to eligible top graduates from various universities to participate in its one-year fast-track training programme. I wish to congratulate FSTEP for the successful effort in designing a new syllabus and it continuous effort to improve the FSTEP programmes remain contemporary and relevant agreed to by all parties within the financial services industry. More importantly, it is my hope that FSTEP will continue to produce the quality of graduates that will meet the needs of the industry. I hope that all of you will have a fruitful discussion and dialogue. On this note, I declare open the event “FSTEP: Syllabus Enhancement”. 2  BIS Review 100/2010
Here is Chancellor Denis Healey, writing in his memoirs3 about a spat with the Prime Minster of the day:  3  2  Healey, D (1989), The time of my life, Michael Joseph London. BIS Review 11/2004  ‘At this time my own relations with Jim were shaken by an incident just after the Party Conference. On October 6 I had asked him to let me raise interest rates by another 2 per cent to the then unprecedented level of 15 per cent…He refused. I said I wanted to take the matter to Cabinet that morning. ‘All right’ he replied ‘but I will not support you.’ Nevertheless I insisted…’ In the event this did not prove necessary: Callaghan backed down, leading Healey to comment wryly that ‘This was the only time I have ever used the threat of resignation to get my way.’ The new framework has taken the politics out of interest rate decisions without sacrificing democratic accountability or oversimplifying the policy process. It is an elegant institutional solution to the lengthy debate between those who favoured untrammelled discretion and those who advocated rules (such as monetary targets); one, moreover, which manages to respect the constitutional priorities of a parliamentary system. Achievements Performance over the six years since the Bank became independent has been impressive. Against the target of 2.5% for RPIX which ran from 1997 until December 2003, average inflation was 2.4%.

Bluntly I think we wouldn’t be doing our job if we didn’t do this – but at the same time the competition objective requires us to ride both horses at once. This is doable but it is tricky. It also raises an interesting question about the relative costs of supervising smaller firms versus higher FSCS levies to cover failures, which would merit further study. Fourth, how is technology going to affect all this? This is obviously a huge topic in its own right, and others here will touch on it so I will make only two brief comments. One, in my view the jury is still out on whether Open Banking and/or PSD2 are the gateway to a bigger change. Two, it is notable that some digital banks are making material inroads into the current account market – is this the leading edge of a bigger change, or not? Fifth, might Brexit create opportunities to move further on proportionality for smaller firms? I’ve already talked about the way in which we make the regime tougher for larger firms. This is entirely appropriate, but is not the same as saying we should have a weak prudential regime for smaller firms – indeed, I think that is the last thing we need both from a safety and soundness and a competition perspective. However, there may be a reasonable case that a simpler (simpler, not weaker) regime for small firms would advance both our safety and soundness and competition objectives.
All of this in a context in which financial conditions remain favorable, due to both the persistence of low interest rates and good credit lending conditions. It is important to warn against the temptation of trying to extract information on the behavior of private consumption from indicators of retail activity. Although this practice can provide some information, there are differences between both variables that confuse the reading. First, consumption is a component of demand, while retail is a part of GDP, so they differ in their measurement, magnitude and components. Second, retail sales indicators are one of the sources on which household consumption is calculated in the National Accounts. However, formal retail trade represents only 15% of private consumption. Third, the consumption of goods must be added up to the consumption of all services (domestic and foreign acquired), which are almost half of household consumption and are not captured in retail sales indicators. Finally, when it comes to making the GDP retail figures compatible with consumption, we must keep in mind that this retail includes not only retail (related to household consumption) but also wholesale (related to companies). All this recommends using retail data with caution, given the important differences between this sector’s activity and private consumption. III.2. International scenario Internationally, in the baseline scenario, the impulse that the Chilean economy will receive from abroad in the next two years will be lower than in the two previous years and the one we expected in March.

Funding of pensions  The savings market in various countries 31.12.2000. As a share of GDP 2.5 Pension funds Securities funds Life insurance  2 1.5 1 0.5 0  um mark land ance many eland Italy lands rw ay tugal Spain eden rland lgi r Fr Ger Ir Fin Sw itze No Por Be Den the Sw Ne  UK  Source : OECD SG Kommunalbanken, 30.august 2002  The organisation of the pension system in Norway will also be of considerable importance to the local government sector as a big employer. The securities market will also be influenced by the pension system Norway will have in the future. Life insurance companies and pension funds are major operators in the Norwegian securities market. • Design of a new pension system: - "Pay-as-you-go" - Fund-based schemes: – Defined contribution – Defined benefit  • Who should bear the risk? SG Kommunalbanken, 30.august 2002  In Norway, the bulk of pensions are funded through the pay-as-you-go system. It is the taxation of current income that pays for the National Insurance Scheme’s current pension benefits. For the vast majority of western countries, estimates show that substantial tax increases will be needed to cope with the ageing of the population. The alternative to the pay-as-you-go system is to build up funds prior to the payment of pensions. These funds can consist of different assets such as stocks and bonds.
Instead, use of the pool has increased because over time the constraints imposed on customers’ ability to  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  vary the size of their investments have been removed, the supply of balance sheet offered by the private sector to foreign central banks appears to have declined, and some central banks desire to maintain robust dollar liquidity buffers. Open questions Compared with the relative calm of the pre-crisis period, money markets have recently gone through a sustained period of substantial change. Some of these changes are the result of regulations to improve the safety and soundness of the financial system, others relate to business model enhancements, and, of course, some relate to Federal Reserve activity. The Federal Reserve continues to collect data on the structure of money markets to determine whether any changes are needed in its operating framework to ensure that its objectives continue to be met. We are continuing to watch developments as business models adapt to the numerous changes in bank regulation introduced over the past few years. We are interested in the extent to which these business model changes impact the structure of money markets and thereby affect the form of monetary policy implementation. For example, we are monitoring developments in bank behavior that could have implications for the transmission of monetary policy into market rates. Thus, we are paying close attention to the behavior of foreign banks on financial statement reporting dates.

Term deposits are likewise similar to IOR; TDF offers a somewhat higher rate to banks that are willing to lock up their funds for a time. 22  The FOMC’s decision to use a target range for the federal funds rate, instead of a point target as was used prior to December 2008, further supported the use of this operating framework. The FOMC’s use of a range supports this framework by underscoring the fact that variation of the effective rate within that range is expected and is consistent with the level of interest rate control it desires. 23  Frost, Logan, Martin, McCabe, Natalucci, and Remache, “Overnight RRP Operations as a Monetary Policy Tool: Some Design Considerations,” February 2015. 24  It seems particularly appropriate to pay close attention to the integration of money markets in light of the increase in bank and dealer balance sheet costs that has ensued from post-crisis changes in financial regulations and other factors. 25  See Chair Yellen’s September 17, 2014, press conference. “To begin normalization, the Committee will raise its target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee expects that the effective federal funds rate may vary within the target range, and could even move outside of that range on occasion, but such movements should have no material effect on financial conditions or the broader economy.”  26  See the September 2014 Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.
In that case, national authorities would licence domestic banks that would face significant restrictions on the type and magnitude of cross-border activities they would be allowed to undertake; for instance, by limiting the size of foreign currency balance sheets and maturity mismatches and not allowing collection of foreign currency deposits in foreign branches. These banks would then be supervised by the national supervisor, their deposits would be insured by the domestic deposit insurance system, and the national central bank would be their LOLR. Those banks that want a European passport would be licensed and supervised by an EU authority, however; they would be part of an EU-wide deposit insurance system, and in most cases, their LOLR would be the ECB. Let me now say a few words about the national level. The key issue here is that, as long as global risks and EU flaws are not dealt with, individual countries are forced to take action to protect themselves: action that might contribute further to the retreat of cross-border banking. These might take the form of restricting international activities of home banks and placing much more strict prudential limits on foreign currency maturity mismatches. For example, when Iceland lifts its current capital controls on outflows, it will probably impose restrictions on both the size and composition of foreign currency balance sheets of home-headquartered banks. Some might see such restrictions as capital controls in another form, but I see them as prudential rules.

“The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 14631. White, William R. (2006). “Is Price Stability Enough?”, Bank for International Settlements Working Paper 205. White, William R. (2009). “Should Monetary Policy ‘Lean or Clean’?”, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalisation and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 34. Williams, John C. (2009). “Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 1–50. Woodford, Michael (2003). Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy. Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ. Woodford, Michael (2010). “Financial Intermediation and Macroeconomic Analysis”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(4), 21–44.