samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The MPC process, however, involves no pressure to reach agreement. We are each accountable for our views; full minutes are taken and published; our individual vote is publicly recorded. This is counter-intuitive for anyone from a PLC background. It is impossible to believe that a split in the Board of a major corporation, certainly a split that was aired in the press, could exist for any length of time. Either the split would need to heal rapidly, or more likely some high-profile departures from the Board would ensue. But in the MPC a system which permits different views to surface publicly is both refreshing and appropriate. Since economic analysis involves a great deal of peering into the future, it is not surprising that there should be disagreement. There is, of course, the old joke of putting nine  BIS Review 102/2000  2  Economists into one room and getting ten views. But it is better to be open about the disagreements than try to forge a false sense of consensus. Of course, alongside this transparency and open voting system goes a degree of personalisation within the Press. An industry has grown up geared to guessing our personal habits, psychoanalysing our personalities and classifying us into different species of the aviary. And alongside this has gone a demand for even greater transparency which falls only a little short of having TV cameras in the Committee Room.

They like to ask the question: “Does the Investment Banker know the difference between right and wrong?” To which the answer is: “Of course he does, provided he’s allowed two guesses!” Having arrived at the Bank over three years ago, I am often asked what I actually do there. And the answer is that I have three main roles. First, I am one of the nine members of the MPC; secondly, I have responsibility for the Bank’s work in financial stability; and thirdly, I have day-to-day responsibility for the management of the Bank. One way or another, wearing these three hats involves me in most of what the new Bank of England does - new in the sense that the 1997 changes, incorporated in the Bank of England 1998 Act, were fundamental to the Bank’s activities. Without providing a personalised “this is how I spend my day” account we occasionally read in the newspapers, perhaps I could say a little about each of these roles. Monetary Policy Committee Being a member of the Monetary Policy Committee is a hugely rewarding experience. The process we go through has been quite well documented elsewhere so let me be brief in my description. We are required by the 1998 Bank of England Act to meet at least monthly, although we have the right to meet as often as we wish.
While significant challenges continue to confront several of the advanced economies as they seek to address the structural problems that remain unresolved, Asia must chart its own path in formulating strategies to develop our economies and financial systems. Following the Asian financial crisis, most emerging economies in Asia have strengthened their economic and financial fundamentals, improved their fiscal and external debt positions, and reformed their banking sectors. This has supported our economies through the recent global financial turmoil. With a significantly stronger foundation, Asia has now every potential to meet its growth and development goals in a manner that avoids the pitfalls that will undermine our future prospects. This morning, I would like to focus my remarks on five factors that I believe will serve to anchor sustainable growth and stability in Asia going forward. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Supporting sustainable growth and stability in Asia First is that the growth of the financial sector in Asia remains largely anchored in productive, real economic activity. In contrast to developments in recent years, financial innovation in Asia has mostly served to support the legitimate financing, investment and risk management needs of businesses and households. The growth of the financial sector has not significantly outstripped economic growth and new innovations in financial products and services have not taken on the degree of complexity and high leverage observed in the economies that were affected by the crisis.

But the belief that we could avoid the adjustment by pushing up our pay would lead to a self-defeating process of higher wages offset by higher prices. It is the task of the MPC to ensure that the process of adjustment does not lead to a persistent rise in inflation. Bank Rate was raised in order that inflation will come back to its 2% target, and future action will depend upon how those risks to the inflation outlook materialise. The month by month path of interest rates required to bring inflation back to target is a matter of judgment. There is certainly room for reasonable people to disagree about the level or timing of changes in interest rates. There is no absolute truth here, and it is vital that the MPC keeps an open mind at all times. That in essence is my letter to you and all the members of the Birmingham Chamber of Commerce. Achieving the inflation target is, I believe, in the long-run interest of manufacturing no less than the rest of the economy. I recognise that the burden of changes in interest rates often falls disproportionately on manufacturers and other exporters as increases in interest rates push up the sterling exchange rate. And that comes on top of a secular decline – fifty years ago almost 40% of GDP was produced  2  BIS Review 9/2007  by the manufacturing sector. Today that share is around 14%.
Private investment activity is also beginning to pick up after a period of over capacity due to the excesses prior to the Asian financial crisis. There are also plans for massive investment in infrastructure development to sustain the economic competitiveness of the region. The Asian Development Bank estimates that Asia will require about USD 8 trillion of infrastructure investment in the next decade. Most important is that Asia has the internal capacity from its high savings to finance these infrastructure requirements. The stronger domestic demand in Asia is also well supported by the strengthened financial systems following the restructuring of the banking sector, the development of the capital markets and the strengthening of the regulatory and supervisory systems in the post-Asian financial crisis period. The reforms implemented also included the progressive deregulation and the move to greater market orientation and increased liberalisation. Today, Asia’s capital markets are significantly deeper and more liquid. The bond market in emerging East Asia has increased by more than seven-fold since 1996, with a current value of USD 4.2 trillion dollars. Emerging East Asia accounts for 7.2% of the total worldwide bond market at end-2009 compared to 2.5% in 1996. Asian banks have stronger fundamentals with improved risk management and governance practices, with capitalisation well above the regulatory requirements and with non-performing loans maintained at historical lows. Riskbased approaches to supervision have also been widely adopted across Asia.

But there is a need also to reduce vulnerability by building bigger, deeper, more robust and diversified capital markets. While the interesting subject of monetary integration, which would provide a long-term solution, has been receiving some nascent attention, efforts to enhance the efficiency of financial intermediation within the region should be stepped up. Asia as a whole is one of the largest exporters of capital and, at the same time, also one of the largest recipients of foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment. The underlying process of capital flows associated with this roundabout phenomenon involves much greater financial volatility and instability for the region than the situation where a greater proportion of savings in the region could more readily find their way into investments in the region. This underscores the importance of greater efforts to enhance the efficiency of financial intermediation within the region. Indeed, capital market reform is high on the agenda of most Asian economies. There has also been considerable progress in the diversification of financial intermediation channels, specifically in the development of the bond market. At the end of last year, the amount of domestic bonds outstanding in eight economies1 that we have surveyed was equivalent to 47 percent of the combined GDP, more  1  Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. BIS Review 30/2004  1  than double the 20 percent at the end of 1995. Over that eight-year period, the bond market’s share in total financing grew from 11 percent to 19 percent.
For these and other reasons, work at the IMF and the Bank suggests that changing the macro policy mix in systemic countries would at best reduce only about one third of their excess imbalances (Chart 4). 16  Why not just leave the rest to exchange rates? This might prove risky not just because exchange rates tend to move slowly then significantly, but also because IMF estimates of the required changes are greater than 17  have occurred in any year since the collapse of Bretton Woods. 12  See Rachel, L and Smith, T (2015), ‘Secular drivers of the global real interest rate’, Bank of England Working Paper No. 571. As Ben Broadbent has noted, as uncertainty rises, the option value of waiting also rises – with a simple model suggesting it can add around 10pp to the hurdle rate that firms need to meet. See ‘Uncertain times’, speech by Ben Broadbent at the Wall Street Journal, 5 October 2016, available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2016/speech929.pdf. 14 For example, consider the following comparison between the euro area and the UK. In the euro area, the private sector continues to generate surplus savings of 5% of GDP. Those must be recycled effectively to generate an expansion. The UK no longer faces that challenge. Its private sector is in balance. The euro-area unemployment rate of just over 9% is twice that in the UK. Gross general government debt in the euro area is roughly the same as in the UK and below the average of advanced economies.

Mr. George speaks on the advent of the euro, and its possible impact on Europe and the Mediterranean region Speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mr. E.A.J. George, at the FT Euro-Mediterranean Capital Markets Conference in London on 26/3/98. I’m delighted to take part in this conference which has been organised by the British Government during its term of Presidency of the European Union to promote and strengthen financial and economic ties within the partnership between the European Union and its Mediterranean neighbours. It is a very happy accident of fate - to me as a central banker at least - that this country should hold the EU Presidency at this particular time, as Europe prepares to take the definitive step to monetary union. Earlier this week in Frankfurt the Council of the European Monetary Institute finalised its “convergence report”, which we published yesterday, at the same time as the parallel report by the European Commission. The Commission also published its recommendation to EU Finance Ministers and Heads of Government that 11 EU member states should move to monetary union, in a first - tidal - wave, from January 1st next year. Without seeking to anticipate the decision to be taken by the Heads of Government under Prime Minister Tony Blair’s Presidency in Brussels during the first weekend of May, the odds are that monetary union will go ahead on that basis. It is an historic moment.
This would enable us to also seize opportunities to tackle these “twin challenges” in an integrated manner. It is my sincere hope that today’s event, along with the release of the report, will encourage broader dialogue and increase awareness around nature-related risks and opportunities, in turn paving the way for concrete action on this important front. I would like to thank the World Bank for this fruitful collaboration, and the esteemed speakers joining us today. I look forward to the engaging sessions ahead. Read Report: An Exploration of Nature-related Financial Risks in Malaysia See also: BNM’s Climate Change website 1  IPBES. 2019. “The global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services: summary for policymakers.” [Link to IPBES]  2 World Economic Forum New Nature Economy Series [Link to PDF] 3 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  3 UN Biodiversity page [Link] 4 SDG 8. 5 SDG 3. 6 "Life on land” is SDG 15, “Life below water” is SDG 14. 7 Network for Greening the Financial System. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

It will take somewhat longer than previously anticipated for inflation to return to a rate that we consider sufficiently close to 2% and stabilise at that rate. Three main causes underpin these developments: first, decelerating growth in emerging market economies; second, a stronger euro; and third, the fall in oil prices and commodity prices more generally. The consequences are renewed downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation. It is too early to judge whether these factors will cause lasting changes to the trajectory that the ECB expected inflation to follow. In particular, more time is needed to determine whether the loss of growth momentum in emerging markets is temporary or permanent in nature and to assess what is driving the fall in commodity prices and to what extent falling oil prices will have second round effects. As always, we will be closely monitoring all relevant incoming information and its potential impact on price stability. The monetary policy measures that we have in place – including the TLTROs or ‘targeted longer-term refinancing operations’ – continue to have a favourable impact on the cost and availability of credit for firms and households. Thus far, despite the recent surge in financial volatility, the measures have prevented a measurable tightening in financial conditions for the real economy. The sustained decline in the cost of borrowing is strengthening domestic demand, supporting durable goods consumption and stimulating investment, particularly by small and medium-sized businesses. This is making the economy of the euro area more resistant to external shocks.
(b) Assumes that 50% of bonuses are paid as CoCos and retained. Bonuses are assumed to equal 20% of total staff costs. (c) Contingent capital is assumed to be included in Tier 1 capital. (d) Assumes that 50% of dividends are paid as CoCos and retained. Chart 12: Cumulative amount of Tier 1 capital for major UK banks £ bn 300  Including dividends paid as cocos Including bonuses paid as cocos  250  Actual Tier 1 capital  200 150 100 50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sources: Annual accounts and Bank calculations Footnotes as per chart 11  BIS central bankers’ speeches  17  Table 1: Type I and Type II errors for Basel Regulatory Ratios and market-based capital measures Type I  Type II  Basel Regulatory ratios  50%  43%  Market capitalisation to book-value of total assets  21%  5%  Market capitalisation to book-value of debt  20%  11%  Market capitalisation to book-value of equity  10%  11%  Sources: Capital IQ and Bank calculations (a) A Type I error occurs when a bank’s ratio falls below the trigger level (calculated according to a loss function as described in charts 5–8) and capital is not required (defined as that bank not suffering a “crisis” over the next 365 days). The number in this column is the proportion of days when a Type I error occurs.

We gladly assess that the topics presented fulfil the standards of a true scientific research, correctly addressing the hypothesis, and their validation is based on the application of contemporary research methodologies, while employing the statistical data in a correct and structured manner. As a result, reaching conclusions and the implications to decision-makers are analysed based on a diligent investigation work on various economic and financial events. After analysing the topics presented, the Assessment Commission has reached a unanimous decision on the winners of the first three prizes of "Governor's Award for the Best Diploma Thesis, 2022". Before awarding the prizes, I would like to congratulate and commend all the participants in competition for their interest, ideas, methods and conclusions, which were based on correct methodologies. The submitted materials are of a high level and the Assessment Commission was hard-pressed when selecting the winners. However, the three topics that will be presented stand out from the rest because of their importance and coherence, as well as for having fully employed the methodology, and diligently having applied and described the assessment methods, and the interesting findings. I encourage the winners and all the contestants in the competition to preserve and nurture the same passion and commitment further in their professional careers as shown in the submitted research works. Let's go ahead and present this turn winners.
First, by communicating a change in outlook and the bias of monetary policy, inducing an important decline in market rates at all horizons. Then, in January 2009, with a clearer assessment of the reduced inflationary pressures, the MPR was lowered by 100 basis points. Later, with the evidence of alleviated inflationary pressures and a sharp contraction in demand, the Central Bank decided to cut the MPR by 250 basis points at both its meetings of February and March. The monetary easing process continued and completed 775 basis points in seven monthly meetings, bringing the MPR to 0.50% in July 2009, the minimum level deemed adequate for a normal functioning of money markets (figure 6). In addition, the Central Bank also announced that the MPR would be held constant at this minimum level for a prolonged period of time. In order to strengthen the commitment to this announcement, which goes beyond the regular monthly MPR setting, the Bank adopted some non-conventional monetary policy measures, extending the overnight liquidity facility for banks at the MPR to 180-day term through a term liquidity facility (Facilidad de Liquidez a Plazo, FLAP). The extraordinary liquidity measures provided during the crisis extinguished in mid 2010 and their withdrawal did not generate stress in the money market. The shift to a countercyclical policy stance was also taken forcefully on fiscal policy. In January 2009, the government announced a sizable fiscal stimulus package, amounting to $ billion for that year, equivalent to 3% of GDP.

The banking system’s capital stock is adequate to boost lending; we do not foresee any growth in outstanding liabilities and, at the same time, profits are sufficient to enable capital buildup. The question is, what procedure will banks use to assess borrowers’ risks and how will demand for capital rise. The current volume of lending is indeed growing, albeit at a very moderate pace: around 5-7% for this year. Turning now to capital outflow. As we see it, capital outflow is expected to remain steady – in the range of $ billion a year over a three-year horizon. Rossiiskaya Gazeta’s QUESTION:  7 / 14  BIS central bankers' speeches  Mrs Nabiullina, the Bank of Russia has recently closed submission of debt load calculation and use proposals. What feedback did you receive from the market? What is the timeline for the rollout of this instrument? And my second question, if I may. You met the People Bank of China’s governor, discussing yuan-denominated OFZ. Did you reach an agreement on investment quotas for our securities? Thank you. ELVIRA NABIULLINA: As regards the rollout of the debt load indicator, we believe this is absolutely the right approach, and we intend to move forward in this direction. We are still receiving feedback. We will need time to process and consolidate this feedback. No final conclusions are possible at this point, our approach being though that this indicator should be enacted; the timeline and details to be discussed. As for my meeting with the governor of China’s central bank.
As of now, there are 13 companies holding Treasury Center licenses, of which 4 have been granted in the past 3 months, with one more awaiting approval from the Ministry of Finance. Many more have also made inquiries, which I am pleased to see. The second area is to foster the growth of regional capital markets. Apart from the banking sector, well-developed capital markets are critical to nurture sustainable development of financial interconnections. In this light, Thailand is playing a proactive role to enhance our capital market capacity, aiming to link up GMS capital markets with global investors. Firms from the GMS 7 can raise funds through the Thai capital market to facilitate their businesses, while global investors can invest in products with GMS exposure. As I mentioned earlier, we have seen successful and fast-selling baht bonds, issued in Thailand by the Lao government and corporates. A few years ago, we allowed companies operating in the GMS to be listed on the Thai stock exchange using the holding company structure. In addition, Thailand offers a more opened platform for GMS investors and global players looking for opportunities in the GMS. A new rule has allowed foreign firms, including those from the GMS, to launch IPOs in Thailand and become listed in the Thai stock exchange. This is aimed to provide global investors with wider choices of investment, and to provide an ideal financing destination for both GMS members and global players. The last area of policy to promote GMS financial connectivity is the better-connected payment networks.

Recently, Thai universities have offered international courses, aiming to attract students from GMS countries, who express greater interest to study in Thailand. Health is another important dimension of people connectivity. An increasing number of citizens from the GMS have chosen to receive medical services from Thai hospitals. I am certain that this trend will continue to rise in the future. Ladies and gentlemen, Let me now turn to the fourth aspect of regional integration, financial connectivity, which is a principle area of policy that the Bank of Thailand, in collaboration with other agencies, will continue to drive going forward. Better connected financial systems support and underpin all other aspects of connectivity. Infrastructure development, trade and investment activities, and people mobility need wellfunctioned financial infrastructure and proper eco-system in order to thrive. In the past decade, financial regulators of GMS countries have made noticeable progress to promote financial connectivity. Examples include introducing a more accommodative regulatory regime to allow Lao entities to raise funds from the Thai capital market. As a result, since 2013, the Lao government and firms have issued baht-denominated bonds, worth 28 billion baht in total, to 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  support infrastructure projects in Laos. For the banking sector, the Bank of Thailand has encouraged banks to expand their regional presence to support growing trade and investment. As of now, there are 30 branches and subsidiaries of Thai commercial banks, set up in GMS countries.