samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
If they are seen as credible backstops, these programs can increase confidence and move financial conditions back toward normal levels. This feature was discussed earlier in the context of the TALF, in terms of the sizable market impact relative to the amount of risk taken. Second, liquidity programs designed in this manner have a good chance of generating positive income for the central bank. The reason is that financing is offered at a time when market risk premiums are very high. The central bank therefore captures a high expected return relative to the actual risk it is assuming, especially when the lending is adequately collateralized to limit such risk. Indeed, the Federal Reserve is likely to make substantial  returns from the liquidity facilities launched during the financial crisis. 5 Achieving these returns, of course, was not an objective of the programs, but it does suggest that the Federal Reserve was prudent in the way in which it established these programs. Third, this approach gives the facilities a self-liquidating property. Loan rates are set at penalty levels that are not attractive in normally functioning markets. Given the scarcity of liquidity and the extreme movements of risk premiums during a crisis, the penalty rates are readily accepted by market participants in those circumstances. However, as the market gains confidence and returns to normal functioning, users of the facility have an incentive to stop borrowing from the central bank and to pursue better rates in private funding markets.

These developments paved the way for subsequent commercial mortgage-backed deals to come to the market without TALF support. The TALF accomplished these benefits while exposing the Federal Reserve to a limited amount of risk, as its design provides considerable protection. As I mentioned earlier, loans were made only against the highest rated asset-backed collateral. 4 Moreover, TALF borrowers contributed significant capital in the form of a risk-based haircut, which means that the market value of collateral pledged exceeded the principal amount of the TALF loan. The prices of securities pledged to the facility have risen, giving the Federal Reserve an even larger cushion against loss, and no securities have been put to the facility to date. In addition, Treasury backstopped the facility by committing up to $ billion to absorb any losses associated with the loans before the Federal Reserve would be at risk. And lastly, the interest earned on our loans is accruing, with about $ million earned to date, and serves as a buffer against loss. 3  Sources: Morgan Markets; Bloomberg L.P.; Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 4  Importantly, the Federal Reserve performed due diligence on each of the bonds pledged to the facility as a part of a detailed risk assessment process. 4  BIS Review 80/2010  The risk to the Federal Reserve is also limited by the amount of balance sheet employed, which has been considerably less than envisioned at the height of the crisis.
An increase of over 16 000 jobs is thus not very far from the middle of the preliminary range of 10 000 to 25 000 jobs saved that I mentioned at the Monetary Policy Meeting in October. To sum up, a reduction of the repo rate path by 0.25 percentage points  6  BIS Review 22/2010  over four quarters will thus give, all else being equal, an increase in inflation of just over 0.4 percentage points and, if employment varies one-to-one with hours worked, an increase in employment of approximately 0.35 per cent, which is equivalent to an estimated figure of over 16 000 jobs. We see in Figure 3 that the consequences of an unanticipated reduction of the repo rate are less than those of an anticipated reduction. In such a case, hours worked increase by 0.23 per cent, equivalent to just under 11 000 jobs, when calculated on the same basis. These estimates are unbiased estimates and forecasts of the effects of a lower repo rate path. The actual effect may be larger or smaller. It is possible that the effects of the repo rate on the economy are smaller than normal when the repo rate is close to zero. It is also possible that a reduction of the repo rate path, in a situation in which the market’s repo rate expectations remain higher than the repo rate path, can have a larger than normal downwards effect on repo rate expectations, thus increasing the effects on the economy.

Repo rate  0,5  1-quarter inflation  0,5  0,5  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  -0,5  -0,5  -0,5  -0,5  0  4  8  12  16  0  20  Real repo rate  4  8  12  0,5  16  20  Real exchange rate  0,5  0,5  1,5  0,0  0,0  1,0  1,0  -0,5  -0,5  0,5  0,5  -1,0  -1,0  0,0  0,0  0  4  8  12  16  20  0  4  8  4-quarter inflation  12  1,5  16  20  GDP  0.5  0.5  0.4  0.0  0.0  0.2  0.2  -0.5  -0.5  0.0  0.0  0  4  8  12  16  20  Hours worked  0.4  0  4  8  12  0.4  16  20  0.4  Anticipated 0.2  Unanticipated  0.2  Note. All x-axes refer to quarters. 0.0  0.0 0  4  8  12  16  20  0.35 per cent of an estimated potential employment rate of, conservatively, 93 per cent of a labour force of approximately five million is equivalent to over 16 000 jobs. Calculating on the basis of 93 per cent thus entails assuming a rather high figure for long-term unemployment of 7 percent.
This included measures to ensure adequate levels of capital and liquidity for the distressed foreign entities operating in their jurisdictions, or to ensure an orderly unwinding of their local operations in some cases, while maintaining confidence in the overall financial system. And third, while there were significant benefits associated with a closer exchange of information and policy discussion between regulators at the international level and the regional level, the conduct of policy actions that followed was more on a bilateral basis. A case in point was the US dollar swap lines which were available selectively. So, while financial systems in Asia were able to successfully weather the impact of the global crisis, recent experience points to an important gap in the coordination of supervisory policies and crisis resolution, both at the international and the regional levels. BIS Review 105/2010  1  Currently, as we know, efforts to strengthen financial regulation and supervision are being undertaken at all levels. The most important and also the most widely known is the BCBS’s reform, which aims to increase the quality, quantity and international consistency and transparency of bank capital, to strengthen liquidity standards, to discourage excessive risk taking, and to improve the overall risk coverage framework. The proposed new international standards, while important, are complex and will pose a critical adoption and implementation challenge. Another important point at issue is the proper treatment of macroprudential policies in the context of financial regulation and supervision.

This is an important step that would provide additional room for the country’s rapid convergence and for Bank of Albania’s rapid and irreversible development in line with the models of its European counterparties. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Given this, the Executive Board has decided that the total fixed-income investment should have a modified duration of 4.00. This choice is based on a consideration where the price risk 17 is not assessed to offer a threat to the capital. 12  The Riksbank invests in the following institutions: Tennessee Valley Authority and the mortgage institutions Federal Home Loan Bank, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 13  Changes in the slope mean that the yield curve becomes steeper or flatter when the long or short end of the curve moves. Changes in curvature involve the long and short ends moving in the same direction, while the middle segment of the curve moves in the opposite direction or remains unchanged. For a detailed description of the yield curve, see for instance Golub & Tilman (2000). 14  Modified duration is a linear description of the relationship between a bond portfolio's market value and interest rates. 15  Although the yield curve normally slopes upwards, it would be risky to take this for granted. During different period of time, parts of the yield curve have been both horizontal and downward sloping. 16  Reinvestment risk arises when capital is to be invested over several periods, as the reinvestment interest rate during the later periods is not known now. By investing assets with the same duration as the accounting period, one is only exposed to reinvestment risk and the annual result will be known at the beginning of the year (this applies to assets without credit risk).

But, as a citizen, I cannot help and feel proud of having one the two main currencies in the world. In sum, benefits of the euro include a high degree of credibility of monetary policy reflected in the level of long-term interest rates; diminished exchange rate volatility; completion of the single market and encouragement to cross-border trade. None of this, of course, can be taken for granted. Benign conditions currently prevailing on financial markets can be reversed. External or internal shocks may be coming, which would impact negatively European economies. The American economy could for example slow down more sharply than anticipated. Fuelled by an excessive expansion of credit, some internal imbalances, although in no way comparable to those in some other developed economies, could also develop in the euro area, especially in the housing sector. But I have the strong conviction that we are fully equipped to deal with any contingency, and, provided the necessary structural reforms are undertaken, keep the economy on a path of growth and stability. BIS Review 3/2007  1  2)  How have those successes been achieved? A lot comes, in my view, from the institutional and operational framework in which monetary policy is developed and implemented. The independence of the ECB and of the 12, very soon 13, participating NCBs is enshrined in the Treaty. They are institutionally, operationally and financially independent from European Community institutions and national governments. We have a clear and transparent definition of price stability: inflation below but close to 2% over the medium-term.
This was due, on the one hand, to measures taken by the ECB, and on the other, to the fact that, in the US, the ‘fiscal cliff’ was averted. As recent weeks have shown, conditions on the financial markets can change again swiftly. In Japan, there has been a sharp correction on the stock market and the yen has again gained somewhat in value. Meanwhile, in the euro area, there is a discrepancy between the generally favourable trend on the financial markets and the disappointing economic data. Finally, in the US, a certain degree of uncertainty about the future monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve (Fed) has gained ground. Overall, the market  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  environment continues to be dominated by high levels of uncertainty, thereby remaining susceptible to sudden shifts in mood. Management of currency reserves The easing of tensions on the financial markets also affected the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) currency reserves. These are mainly composed of foreign currency investments and gold. At the end of May, the SNB held foreign currency investments of just over CHF 440 billion (cf. chart 1). Due to our liquidity and security requirements, a large portion of our foreign exchange holdings are in government bonds and deposits with other central banks. This portion amounted to 78% at the end of the first quarter of 2013. To further diversify investment risk and increase investment in real assets, we raised our proportion of equities from 12% to 15% in the first quarter.

Switzerland has a long tradition of organising its core financial market infrastructure as a joint enterprise, according to the ‘user-owned, user-governed’ principle. In the case of the repo market, the current solution has proven its worth. Nonetheless, due to changes in the stock market and regulatory environment, the SNB has undertaken a reassessment of the situation. In the light of this, the SNB has decided to conduct its monetary policy operations via a new trading platform, provided by SIX Group Ltd, as of May 2014. In this way, the repo market will be based on an integrated solution, in which the trading platform, securities settlement system and payment system are covered by a single source. Moreover, further developments will also be possible, for example the expansion of trading to incorporate further products. Since the new trading platform will resemble the existing Swiss franc repo system (Eurex Repo), access for market participants will entail only minimal adjustments. We are confident that an integrated solution is the best means of ensuring a robust repo market infrastructure. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Charts  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Role of technology in optimising potential of Islamic finance One final point before I conclude – technology makes the impossible possible. Recent financial technology advancements enable Islamic finance industry players to deliver practical yet value-adding solutions. For instance, application of blockchain6 to address challenges7 in managing endowment fund (waqf). Fintech is rapidly changing the facets of the global financial industry, reshaping expectations of consumers and businesses on financial services. There are untapped opportunities of fintech to develop financial solutions that can help drive Islamic finance to deliver even greater, wider and deeper positive impact – particularly in realising its promise in risk-sharing and providing support for genuine and productive economic activities. Technology can also widen access to and increase outreach of social finance instruments through digitisation of collection and disbursement of the proceeds. Fintech startups such as LaunchGood and SkolaFund are already making their name in social impact initiatives, which is a promising start. Conclusion Financial institutions need to look beyond short-term profitability. It is imperative for financial 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  intermediaries to be seen fulfilling the needs of the economy, society and environment at large. Moving forward, ‘change of mindset’ is eminent. While considering profit, financial institutions should not forgo the element of being socially and environmentally responsible. I believe setting the ‘Tone from the top’ is key in this process. The organisation of today’s roundtable forum is indeed very apt.

But the work must start now, and it must start right by taking a broader and integrated approach to implementation. Today’s workshop aims to bring some of the most important issues in implementation to light, and provide you with valuable insights from our distinguished speakers and subject matter experts. With greater clarity and knowledge to inform careful preparations, insurers can be confident of not just achieving a smooth transition to IFRS 17, but of laying strong foundations for long term growth and success. 4/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  That is the ultimate goal. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches
At the same BIS Review 72/2000  4  time, there are similarities with regard to the strong penetration of information technology in the economy, although we are also later in this development. As in the USA, high asset prices and strong optimism have stimulated demand and increased the level of indebtedness in the Swedish economy. Although it is not yet possible to write off the risk of financial imbalances building up the USA imbalances that can have negative effects for the American economy - it now seems as if the American economy may be on its way to a soft landing. However, there still remain the global financial imbalances that have been built up over many years with very high saving in Japan and very low saving and high indebtedness in the USA. We have still not seen how these imbalances are to be resolved and the consequences this will have for the world economy. Although there are some indications that the Swedish economy is experiencing a similar development as the American, the structural differences cannot be disregarded, which probably create greater inertia in the Swedish economy than in the American. One such area is the labour market. Considerable barriers to competition remain in the Swedish economy as well. Another difference is that the cyclical upswing we are now experiencing is taking place at the same time as an increase in growth and resource use in the rest of the world.

Some analysts have attributed this lack of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  trade in service and manufacturing sectors to lack of competitiveness and products that insurer the exporter against any unforeseen losses. The demonstration by ATI of their credit risk insurance products in this workshop will therefore, play a very important role in promoting trade and exports of Non-Traditional Exports which lead to a diversified economy, job creation and sustainable economic growth. The credit risk insurance products also spur trade within Africa by helping our local companies to become more competitive through increased access to credit facilities. ATI has therefore, truly had a significant impact in Africa, which is reflected in the over $ billion worth of trade and investments it has attracted into the continent over the past decade. Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, as you are aware, staying competitive is what all companies strive to do. Innovation plays a key role in this equation. I am therefore elated that this morning ATI will speak about how it is providing innovative products and services to better suit the needs of banks and financial institutions. I am confident that the strategic partnerships of local banks and ATI will provide an opportunity for growth in credit particularly to the Small and Medium Enterprises which face major challenges in the trade sector.
Both indicators were registered at 3.5% in November. Seasonally adjusted monthly price growth has been around 0.2% since June.For food products, this indicator came in even lower in October and November. If we transform these monthly indicators into annualised form, the result will be lower than 4%. However, looking at the key product groups, while annual food and non-food price growth keeps falling, services prices increased slightly faster in November with their growth rate reaching 3.9%. This was mainly owing to the market services segment, which could be an early sign of a potential revival of demand. Survey results also indicate an improvement in consumer sentiment. As to the next year, our inflation forecast for the first quarter is below 3%. This decrease will be temporary. It is in line with our expectations and is explained by the fact that the effect of the VAT rate increase will be factored out from the calculation of annual inflation. In the second half of the year, inflation will be returning to around 4%. This will be helped by the monetary policy easing that the Bank of Russia has implemented this year. I would like to reiterate that monetary policy measures influence the economy and inflation in a gradual manner. The accumulated effect of the earlier key rate decisions will manifest itself throughout 2020. Therefore, it may take some time to assess the necessity for a further key rate reduction.

This is associated with oil price trends and external demand. The financial account balance of the private sector will shrink to about 1% of GDP in 2020–2022. As usual, making our decisions, we also factored in risks. We are currently talking a lot about disinflationary factors, and they do prevail for the moment. However, there are also proinflationary risks over the forecast horizon. First, such risks are associated with external factors, which include the world economy and global financial markets. Second, it is hard to exactly assess the extent to which the inflation slowdown in the food market is caused by temporary factors, the timing and the likelihood of the turnaround in their dynamics and the intensity of balancing changes in food prices given the current low base. Third, as we have noted, the aggregate effect of five earlier key rate cuts will be gradual and its estimation will take time. As for the fiscal policy, the situation seems more balanced in terms of its effect on inflation in 2020, given that budget spending, including into the national projects, will be distributed over time. Let me remind you that the next policy meeting of the Board of Directors will also be a core one, same as today. This is associated with the changes in the schedule of the Board of Directors’ policy meetings. We are going to sum up the results of 2019 at our next meeting.
According to some, in the past few years alone Hong Kong has been diagnosed with a whole collection of terminal diseases brought by the handover in 1997, the recent regional financial crisis, the “threat” not just from Shanghai but also from Seoul, Singapore and Sydney, the high cost of doing business, declining educational standards, worsening pollution and, believe it or not, too stable a currency as well, and a whole host of other factors. The impending “catastrophe” of China’s entry into the WTO is the latest spectre on the horizon, and no doubt when that one passes without incident more demons will be conjured up. Yet, in this moribund state, we are still managing to struggle along with GDP growth - projected for this year - of 8.5% and export growth at double-digit rates in recent quarters. The World Bank projections on the effects of WTO entry - a doubling in the space of five years of China’s share in international trade (which is itself projected to grow at the rate of about 6% per annum) - suggests that the business “creation effect” stimulated by WTO accession will far outweigh the “diversion effect”. There should, in brief, be more than enough work to keep both Shanghai and Hong Kong busy for a long time to come, and more than enough skill and enterprise available in both cities to enable each to focus on the opportunities that WTO entry will bring.

Hong Kong’s banking sector, with its strong reputation and long involvement in mainland business, stands to benefit greatly from the liberalisation in this area, providing that it can position itself to make the best out of the opportunities. In the monetary sphere, the various predictions about the future development of the renminbi in the light of WTO membership - which include the possibility of greater exchange rate flexibility - would most likely have positive implications for Hong Kong’s economy as a whole, and should create no difficulties for Hong Kong’s entirely separate and soundly based currency. The role for Hong Kong in the context of a WTO that includes China, would, I believe, give even fuller scope for the qualities that, in the assessment of the Cato Institute, make Hong Kong the freest economy in the world. All of this therefore leaves a small question in my mind about the title of this BIS Review 68/2000  6  conference, and I hope the organisers will forgive me for raising it. The phrase “Hong Kong’s Legacy, China’s Future” has a bit of a morbid ring about it. It suggests that we in Hong Kong are bequeathing something to China before we breathe our last, and that you are assembled here for a funeral, or at least a deathbed scene. This cannot, surely, be the intention behind the conference.