samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Second, do the new circumstances change the investment behavior of the population and what consequences may it have on the financial stability? Third, what are the processes that accelerated and surfaced due to the pandemic, and which are also an opportunity for productive use of savings and financial support of sustainable projects by the financial sector? Unlike other crisis episodes, the pandemic has actually increased savings and this process is a global phenomenon. In the developed countries, the estimated excess savings in 2020 was nearly 7% of GDP, showing that savings were higher in the pandemic, than in normal circumstances. In the region of the Western Balkans, the rates of domestic savings measured as the difference between the generated income and the total private sector and government consumption registered a slight decrease of around 3 percentage points of GDP, but in conditions of a strong fiscal consumption for support of the economies. This means that private sector savings, despite the great recession, it is very likely that they remained relatively stable or grew. There are three reasons that contribute to this phenomenon. First, despite the recession, disposable income did not decrease, partially due to the fiscal impulse for support of wages and  1/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  jobs.

In our country, the price growth is more moderate of about 4.4% during this year, but with signs of acceleration. In the entire region and in our country, housing lending is accelerating and the growth rates are more dynamic compared to the growth of consumer loans. It appears that currently in our country the real estate market developments are in accordance with the shifts in the supply and demand, and the price pressure exists, but it is not that pronounced, as it is in the European Union countries. However, this "pandemic syndrome" should be carefully monitored, given that the exposure of the banking system to the real estate market is increasing more and more. Hence, there is a need for enhanced monitoring also of this part of the portfolio and keeping of the banks' capacity to deal with the possible future shocks. 2/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  The banking systems in both the region and in our country are passing the test imposed by the pandemic crisis well, and the challenge for maintaining the capacity for credit support and also maintaining stability will remain in the next period. The indicators of solvency, liquidity, profitability of banks and the quality of the credit portfolio remain stable, and some of them further improved. But, the crisis is getting a prolonged dimension and may have lasting consequences and impose a need for restructuring in some of the sectors of the economy.
Other market participants are likewise supportive of our efforts to develop an Accord that remains robust, relevant, and responsive to the demands and innovations of modern banking. Work on the proposal is continuing, and the Committee is currently addressing several important issues, including how the revised Accord may affect loans made to small and medium-sized enterprises. Changes since the Second Consultative Paper In countries around the world, and especially in Germany, much has been written about the effects the new Accord may have on the cost of credit for small businesses. I believe that, over the past year, we’ve made substantial progress in finding solutions that should alleviate those concerns for small business owners, regardless of whether they run a small high-tech consulting firm or a “BMW” (“Bäcker, Metzger und Winzer”)-firm. I’d like to focus on changes to the internal ratings-based (“IRB”) proposals that are relevant to small and medium-sized businesses. Changes concerning the treatment of loans to small and medium-sized enterprises include (a) modifications to the capital requirements so that they better reflect the underlying risk; (b) greater recognition of collateral provided by small and medium-sized enterprises; and (c) an adjustment to the capital charges based on a borrowing firm’s size. I will also discuss proposals related to banks’ equity – or venture capital – investments in other firms.

With a flexible exchange rate, a depreciation of the krone can also boost competitiveness. A flexible exchange rate can reduce fluctuations in employment and output. Empirical studies4 have also suggested that economic growth in industrialised countries with floating exchange rates has been as strong, and often stronger than in countries with a stable exchange rate. A precondition is that there is an economic policy framework so that inflation does not spin out of control. The real exchange rate The chart shows developments in two measures of the real krone exchange rate, i.e. consumer prices and relative labour costs in Norway relative to trading partners, measured in a common currency. The real exchange rate measured by relative wage costs in a common currency is an expression of the cost competitiveness of Norwegian companies. The real krone exchange rate as measured in terms of developments in relative prices is an expression of the Norwegian krone’s purchasing power. When the curves in the chart are above zero, the exchange rate is stronger and competitiveness weaker than the average level since 1970. The real exchange rate has fluctuated considerably over time and has deviated substantially from the average level over longer periods. Nevertheless, there has been a tendency for the real exchange rate to revert to this level. The points on the chart marked 2004 show the real exchange rate with wage and inflation projections for 2004 from Inflation Report 1/04. 1 2004.
The Bank of Albania has assessed that, driven also by a large global market “drought”, 2008 has recorded reduced foreign currency inflows and increased current deficit. During two last months a moderate foreign exchange rate depreciation was noted. However, we should take into account that Albania is in a more favourable position than other  BIS Review 30/2009  1  economies of the Central and Eastern Europe. Our advantage stands on the fact that unlike other countries of the region, we have not financed our current and trade deficits with shortterm foreign capital inflows, otherwise referred to as “hot money”. The Bank of Albania has prohibited lending to the economy with the so-called “exotic currency”, which once upon a time represented funds of a very low cost, ready to penetrate even to our economy. Let me remind you that many developing economies have fallen into the trap of those funds, suffering now gravely from their flight. Furthermore, we have adopted a flexible exchange rate, unlike fixed or managed exchange rates. The Bank of Albania has assessed that current developments, particularly those of our main partners, will bring about tendencies which are generally different from those with which we have been working over last ten years. Actually, the euro area is in crisis. Economic growth is negative; the euro is loosing terrain versus the dollar; unemployment is increasing; and prices are going down.

Ardian Fullani: Albania’s economy against the background of global developments Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the meeting with representatives of exporting companies and Albanian Association of Banks, Tirana, 23 February 2009. *  *  *  Dear participants, It is a my great pleasure to welcome at the Bank of Albania premises, so many honourable guests, whose contribution to ensuring stable growth rates of the country’s economic activity has been significant in the recent years. Your role has been vital in involving Albania to the globalization process and in attracting foreign investments. Export industry is of great importance to the Albanian economy. During the transition period, our economy has recorded a negative trade balance, which, in turn, has caused a constant current deficit. Long-run macroeconomic stability requires that in the course of time, these balances are paid from future trade surpluses. You realise that it has to do with a challenge you have to cope with at present and in the near and distant future. Naturally, I can not avoid mentioning that a great role also belongs to decision-making institutions, which should create, by means of economic development policies, relevant incentives, the background and infrastructure on which your business will be based and promoted. Macroeconomic developments in recent years and overall trends reflected in the standard of living indicators, show that the Albanian economy has succeeded in completing the transition stage and entering the group of the developing countries.
In other words, the rates for long borrowing by housing institutes and firms have risen relatively more than the rate the Treasury has to pay for government borrowing with the same maturity. Since June, the rate for a five-year housing bond has moved up around 1.3 percentage points. 1  BIS Review 92/1999  Similar shifts have been noted in the international financial markets. Spreads of this kind often tend to widen when the future path of interest rates becomes more uncertain. Besides the uncertainty about interest rate tendencies in the cyclical upswing, a contribution to the wider spreads is said to have come from the turn of the millennium: concern about limited liquidity at the turn of the year is considered to induce some investors and borrowers to try to carry out transactions earlier. In this context I should like to take the opportunity to underscore that the Riksbank, with its responsibility for monetary policy and financial stability, has the instruments that are needed to manage any liquidity problems that may arise. Together with the extensive preparatory work that has been done in the financial sector, this means that the turn of the millennium should not be seen as a serious problem. The revised expectations of future inflationary pressure have entailed an adjustment of expectations about monetary policy. Price setting in the financial markets includes built-in expectations that in the coming years many central banks, including the Riksbank, will be raising their instrumental rates.

Mugur Isărescu: Regional economic outlook - Europe Opening speech by Mr Mugur Isărescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the conference "Regional Economic Outlook - Europe", Bucharest, 17 November 2017. * * * Your Excellences, Ambassadors, Members of the diplomatic corps, Ladies and gentlemen, Distinguished guests, It is my pleasure to welcome you to the National Bank of Romania. The Board and I are honored to host the presentation of an important IMF document, one of their flagship reports, namely “2017 Regional Economic Outlook Report”. It is a tradition for the National Bank of Romania to host this event and we are pleased to greet the presence of many foreign diplomats – this is a clear testimony of its importance. Allow me to extend a warm welcome to Mr. Jeffrey Franks, who has been a long-standing friend of Romania. Mr. Franks is a veteran of the Fund, who – over the last 25 years – has managed challenging assignments, including the resident offices in Ukraine and Ecuador, and has led teams in Pakistan, Romania, France, Belgium, and Paraguay. He was the IMF Mission Chief for Romania for almost 3 years, from 2009 till 2012. As many of you may remember, during his mandate as mission chief, Romania overcame a very difficult period, with the support of the IMF, WB and EC.
Many other central banks have since followed the Bank of England’s lead, and in the HKMA we have published our own Monetary and Financial Stability Report for several years now. More recently we began an internal Banking Stability Report which aims to provide a macro prudential perspective on trends in the banking system that we can then use to target our on-site bank examinations more effectively. The eventual goal is to try to draw these two reports more closely together and to bring a more forward-looking perspective to our banking supervision work. When central banks make their financial stability analysis public it provides financial system participants with an insight into the central bank’s perception of the vulnerabilities of the system. It enables policymakers to be transparent in their views of where they perceive the risks and vulnerabilities to be. Hopefully, by raising warning flags at a sufficiently early stage – for example if we  BIS Review 106/2006  3  perceive risks in a build up of credit to a particular sector – we can encourage banks to review the risks that they are running and, if necessary, to take action to mitigate those risks. But it is important to be careful how the risks and vulnerabilities are presented. The last thing we want to happen is for the predicted problems to surface because everyone has rushed for the exit at the same time.

William A Ryback: Macro prudential policy – a new name for some old ways of thinking? Speech by Mr William A Ryback, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Macro Prudential Supervision Conference: Challenges for Financial Supervisors, organised by the Korea Financial Supervisory Commission / Financial Supervisory Service and the International Monetary Fund, Seoul, 7 November 2006. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, I am pleased to be here today to add my thoughts to this important discussion on emerging insights into the macro prudential end of the supervision business. I also am pleased to be back in Seoul one of the most dynamic cities in Asia and to be hosted by my friends in the Korean Bank supervisory community - many of whom I have known for a number of years. It is almost ten years from the financial crises that affected many parts of Asia. This conference then is being held at an opportune time to allow us to reflect on the lessons learned. There has been considerable change over the last decade. Risk management in the regions banking systems’ have become more robust. There has also been a step-change in the standards of supervision. Risk-based supervision has replaced compliance checking. There are also now moves under way to improve regional cooperation on issues like Basel II implementation, in which EMEAP will continue to play a leading role.
I also firmly believe that the process must be carried out with pragmatism and completely in tune with reality rather than based on a theoretical scheme or vision. * Mr Chairman, ladies and gentlemen, we are living through an extremely difficult period of economic history. I am nonetheless firmly convinced that in France and Europe we have both the tools necessary to help us out of this crisis and the necessary vision to guide our actions. The public authorities have shown their willingness to shore up the financial system. It is now essential that the system proves to be dynamic and takes the initiative, as it has in the past, so that the credit that is essential to the economy is available in sufficient quantity and quality. I am sure that Crédit Agricole will, as it has in the past, muster the necessary energy for the benefit of our economy. Thank you very much. 6  BIS Review 130/2008

We applied what we understood to be the lessons from Japan, though with hindsight, perhaps not in every respect as completely as we could have. In particular, Japan’s experience reinforced the lessons of the Great Depression here in the U.S. and made us sensitive to the disinflationary force of an asset price bust and financial  4  However, research suggests that the purchases did reinforce the forward commitment. See, for example, “Policy commitment and expectation formation: Japan’s experience under zero interest rates” Kunio Okina and Shigenori Shiratsuka North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol 15, No 1, pp 75–100. 5  See, for example, “Deleveraging and Monetary Policy: Japan Since the 1990s and the United States Since 2007”, Kazuo Ueda, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol 26, No 3, Summer 2012, pp 177–202. 6  Some commentators prefer the term “North Atlantic financial crisis” as the failure and near-failure of financial institutions was concentrated in the U.S. and Europe. However, the crisis was global in the sense that financial markets transmitted the shock throughout the world and this resulted in a severe global economic downturn. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  crisis. We recognized that we had to be very aggressive to prevent deflation and deflation expectations from becoming well entrenched. The Federal Reserve reduced short-term interest rates to nearly zero by late 2008 – a little over a year and a half after the initial shock hit in August 2007.
I will not repeat here the figures already published and explained and which were yesterday commented on by the Minister for Economic Affairs and Competitiveness before the Economic Affairs Committee. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  However, I do want to say that the exercise performed is unprecedented in terms of its depth and detail, the severity of the macroeconomic assumptions accepted and the scrutiny to which it was subject throughout by experts from the institutions I have mentioned above. But there is still some way to go in the clean-up and restructuring of our banking system. The Memorandum of Understanding signed last July sets out the steps now to be taken, which the Spanish authorities – and, rest assured, the Banco de España – will comply with as precisely as possible. The restructuring or resolution plans for banks owned by the FROB must be approved before December 2012. Also, before November, we shall have at our disposal the recapitalisation plans of banks which cannot meet their capital shortfall without State aid, on the understanding that banks which are not considered viable will be resolved orderly in accordance with the terms of the corresponding resolution plan. Banks that can meet their capital shortfall without resorting to State aid will be required to implement their recapitalisation plans before June 2013. The other key component of the Clean-up Programme is the Asset Management Company which should be operational at the beginning of 2013.

But they could also exacerbate inflation if the domestic exchange rate weakens. Adding to the complexity is that monetary policy operates with long lags. If policy is tightened at a pace that does not take into account the effects of previous hikes, we risk a deeper economic downturn or financial stresses. But if policy tightening ends prematurely, we risk destabilising price expectations, entrenching inflationary pressures, and eroding central bank credibility. Of course, the question of how fast core inflation can return to central banks’ target bands is contingent not just on monetary policy. The speed of disinflation is subject to three near-term uncertainties: labour market dynamics, China’s re-opening, and a surge in food and energy prices. The first uncertainty is labour markets: continued labour market tightness could lead to persistent services inflation, especially in the advanced economies. COVID-19 presented the ultimate supply shock for labour markets across the world, as workers exited the labour force in large numbers. Even with the return of most workers post-pandemic, sectoral labour shortages remain severe in many countries, especially in contact-intensive industries such as retail trade, food, hospitality, and manufacturing. With labour markets persistently tight in most advanced economies, nominal wage growth has been robust. There are three possibly structural factors driving tight labour markets and wage pressures. First, workers have been moving away from low-wage services jobs and moving up the occupational ladder, generating worker shortages in these services jobs.
Personally, I believe that crisis management simulation exercises involving supervisors, central banks and finance ministries in all EU countries would provide valuable ideas on how to develop and improve cooperation and coordination of financial crises. On top of the obvious need for coordination of information and decision-making, there is as I just mentioned – and I will elaborate more on this shortly – also the additional element of conflicting interests that may be an even more serious impediment to efficient crisis management. In order not to waste valuable time in an emergency, you need to have ways to settle them as efficiently as possible already in place. In my opinion, specifically ex ante arrangements for burden sharing between countries are needed. Managing conflicts of interests Conflicts of interests can become apparent in many ways, for example, if a cross-border bank becomes insolvent and incurs social costs that somehow need to be shared between the countries involved. The problem of burden sharing becomes particularly precarious when, for example, the bank is significant to the banking system in some country but not in some other countries, or if there are great discrepancies between the ratio of the bank’s size to the GDP of the different countries involved. 4  BIS Review 39/2006  The social costs that may call for some burden sharing can take many forms.

Bangalore has transformed itself from a provincial capital into a world class centre for the global IT industry. Mumbai is a thriving commercial centre. MNCs are outsourcing backroom functions and call centres to India, attracted by India’s highly skilled, English speaking, and cost competitive professionals. In manufacturing, India is doing well in automobile, pharmaceuticals and chemicals. The recent BJP victory in state elections is widely seen as the Indian people reaffirming their support for reforms. The current thaw in relations with Pakistan is another positive sign. Worldwide, people are becoming persuaded that the momentum for economic liberalization that has built up is irreversible. A subcontinent is on the move. Nowhere is this more evident than in the self-confidence of Indian companies. As one consultant commented, 5-10 years ago his assignments in India were about how to withstand the competitive threat. But today the question is how to grow the companies beyond India. Therein lies an opportunity for India and Singapore to work together. Responding to globalisation Both India and ASEAN are opening up, reforming their economies, and pursuing the path of globalisation. The rapidly changing and highly competitive environment requires countries to make many changes in policies and strategies, and to cooperate more closely with others, especially in the region, for mutual benefit. Internal restructuring Singapore, being such a small and open economy, feels the need to remain competitive, adapt and upgrade most acutely. We are getting used to the fact that there is no more life-time employment or iron rice-bowl anywhere in the world.