samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
So there is a lot you can feel positive about in the past year’s achievements and in the start you have made to 1999. But, looking ahead, the world prospect remains uncertain. Notably, the emerging markets crisis has had an immense impact on international financial flows, and the economic adjustments that those shifts will bring in their wake are likely to have important impacts on the bond markets and on your business activity. As a measure of the impact of the emerging markets turbulence, the Institute of International Finance recently published data which show that total net private capital flows to the emerging markets (broadly defined) fell from some $ billion in 1996 to around $ billion last year. Within this, nonbank lending and portfolio equity inflows also fell back by around $ billion (to around $ billion). Although direct investment in the emerging market countries held up pretty well (at around $ billion), and despite a big increase of nearly $ billion in official lending, there was a sudden huge decline in the overall availability of finance to the emerging market economies. And that left many of them with sharply weakening exchange rates, and little choice but to contract their domestic economies. The immediate international priority last year was to contain the financial contagion – and there was some progress in this direction following the initial shocks in Asia.

When I met a group of Japanese industrialists recently, they lamented that the target date of 2020 to achieve the ASEAN Economic Community was too far away. They urged ASEAN to integrate aster into one single market so that it would be an attractive destination for Japanese investments besides China. Terrorism and regional security are major problem areas. The fight against terror will continue for many years. Victory can only be achieved through a sustained and united global effort. The most important dimension of the fight is the ideological one - between mainstream Islam and the extremist elements. If the extremists are not defeated in this intra-Islam ideological fight, there will be a constant supply of terrorists out to create terror and chaos. Tensions have heightened in the Taiwan Straits and the Korean Peninsula. While Taiwan’s economy is becoming increasingly intertwined with China’s, politically, Taiwan appears to be taking steps to move permanently away from China. The risk of a miscalculation leading to military conflict is high in the next few years. The consequences of such a war will make the war in Iraq look like a skirmish. Asia will be in turmoil. Its development will be set back for many years. North Korea is another potential trouble spot. Fortunately, whatever their differences, the key players share a common interest in the peaceful containment of the issue. III. Five-year strategic plan  What does this mean for us in MAS? It means we have to anticipate events and plan for uncertainties.
Paul Tucker: The programme of reform Remarks by Mr Paul Tucker, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability at the Bank of England, at the Institute of International Bankers’ Annual Breakfast Regulatory Dialogue, Washington DC, 11 October 2010. *  *  *  An earlier version of these remarks was delivered in the concluding Panel session, chaired by Jacques de Larosiere, at the Eurofi Financial Forum, 30 September 2010. Thank you very much to our hosts. I might start by saying that I believe that a material contributor to this crisis was the failure of the official regimes for overseeing the financial system – the intellectual framework, the machinery, and regulation and supervision – to keep up with the extraordinary evolution of our capital markets over the past two decades or more. The programme of reform is, accordingly, formidable. It will also be transformational. There is no doubt any more that the global financial system, regional financial systems and national financial systems are going to be transformed in the years ahead. And if there was any doubt in the market 18 months or so ago, I don’t think there can be doubt now that the energy behind reform hasn’t flagged. That is unsurprising given that unemployment remains intolerably high throughout the western world. Many of us have already had to take national measures, make national reforms. But, of course, it was a global crisis, and so it is essential that we also take measures at the global level, through the G20 and the Financial Stability Board.

Kerstin af Jochnick: Monetary policy and the current economic situation Speech by Ms Kerstin af Jochnick, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, to the County Administrative Board, Kalmar, 22 August 2013. *  *  *  It has become something of a tradition for a member of the Executive Board of the Riksbank to hold a speech on the current economic situation at the end of August. I think this is a good idea; starting off the new term by summarising what has happened during the summer. I appreciate being given the opportunity to come here to Kalmar to talk about the economic situation. Kalmar is part of a region where economic developments are greatly affected by cyclical fluctuations. Kalmar and Kronoberg, together with Blekinge, are the counties that have experienced the largest fluctuations in growth since the early 1980s. One reason for this, of course, is that a large share of the companies in the region comprises subcontractors to the cyclically-sensitive manufacturing industry. Today I intend to start off with the economic assessment we made in July and in particular to describe my view of developments at that time and of the monetary policy we have decided on. The main message in July was that the Swedish economy is heading for a recovery. But we decided to hold the repo rate at a low, unchanged level to help the economy along.
My predecessor at the helm of the Dallas Fed, Bob McTeer, used to say, “The first rule of forecasting should be “don’t do it.” The second rule, he would add is, “If you give a number, don’t give a date.” But given the assignment to venture a vision as to where the fed funds rate would be in each of the next three years and over “the longer run” to the nearest onequarter of one percent, the 17 intrepid souls of the FOMC, including yours truly, did so. Only three envisioned that the fed funds rate might rise from current levels by year-end 2012; six saw it doing so by year-end 2013 and 11 by year-end 2014. Over the longer term, the 17 members envisioned a funds rate of between 3¾ and 4½ percent. Bob McTeer’s admonishment clearly does not resonate with the FOMC. And yet I would caution, again, that at best, the economic forecasts and interest-rate projections of the FOMC are ultimately pure guesses. I have yet to find a single economist on this planet who consistently forecasts the economy accurately, let alone projects with any precision the interest rate on overnight funds one year out or far into the future. If you examine the record of the Blue Chip economists or even of our superb Federal Reserve staff, you will find confirmation of a paucity of reliable economic forecasts.

Having a common survey instrument would promote benchmarking of, and accountability for, progress on culture and behavior. A core element of any firm’s mission and culture must be a respect for law. Federal Reserve guidance advises that banks should strive to “[m]aintain a corporate culture that emphasizes the importance of compliance with laws and regulations and consumer protection.” 4 To maintain such a culture, senior leaders must promote effective self-policing. If audit uncovers an instance of fraud in one unit, the firm’s leadership should ask, “Where else could this behavior occur?” If the press reports fraud at a competitor in a particular business line, the same self-assessment should apply. “Could this happen to us, could we have a similar problem here?” When fraud is detected, boards and senior leaders must ensure that they are informed promptly, and that a thorough inquiry is undertaken at once. The senior leaders of financial firms, and those who report to them, must also be proactive in reporting illegal or unethical activity. Early self-reporting sends a powerful message to employees and to regulators about a firm’s respect for law. This is one important reason why those who selfreport in a timely way should be treated preferentially, compared to those that drag their feet and whose bad behaviors are only uncovered by enforcement investigations. How will a firm know if it is making real progress? Not having to plead guilty to felony charges or being assessed large fines is a good start.
In such a case, what at the very beginning could be perceived as a more relaxing financial environment that would provide a competitive priority, would soon leave the place to recycling of problems that were at the root of this crisis, decreased investors’ confidence and increased financial and social costs for recovery. Naturally, each country will adapt these standards to the degree of current financial system development, its composition and depth, as well as to its outlook. It is important to emphasise that these measures would be insufficient, if not accompanied by more general policies, aiming at diversifying sources that contribute to economic equilibrium growth, financing the economic agents, improving the legal framework of business development and following sound macroeconomic policies. Allow me now to deal with the situation of our financial system and share with you some stances, which we have generally discussed even previously. The stagnant situation of the financial system during the last year was dictated by the banking system performance, because of its weight. The rest of the financial system, represented by insurance companies and other non-bank financial institutions, underwent a good growth. Regardless of this, their share to the financial system remains low. The banking sector was faced with liquidity constraints in the last quarter of 2008 and in the first quarter of 2009.

Overall, the improvement in banks’ funding situation, has not led to increased lending to the non-financial private sector, which has declined in recent months. Admittedly, part of this weakness is due to low demand factors. And here also, some fragmentation can be observed. Among countries: credit distribution is more active in Germany or France than in Italy or Spain. And among borrowers: big corporates can issue at very favourable rates while at the same time, too many SMEs are deprived of necessary financing. This divergence is a source of concern, especially since, in our economies, SMEs play a dominant role in fostering innovation and employment. This situation may not reflect a weakness specific to the euro area. In all advanced economies, banks are engaged in a process of balance sheet repair and deleveraging. Recent numbers show major advances for European banks in their efforts to strengthen their capital base, in line with Basel III requirements and, in particular for big international banks, quite comparable to capital strengthening in US banks (when differences in accounting standards are neutralized). To put it simply, in the euro area, banks are responsible for 80% of total financial intermediation, twice as much as in the US. Consequently, the impact is much stronger on the real economy. What can central banks do? Our actions are guided by the following elements. Inflation is firmly under control. Policy rates are very low. In practice, most central banks today are operating close to the zero lower bound.
The HKMA and BOT are fully committed to the successful implementation of this PvP link. Over the past year, exceptional effort has been made by BOT to engage Thai banks to encourage participation and adequate preparation for its implementation. On our side, apart from rendering support on the technical front, we have been in close dialogue with the participating banks of the USD RTGS system, especially those active in correspondent banking activities, to facilitate Thai banks to identify suitable correspondent banking service providers in Hong Kong. These efforts are bearing fruit. About half of the banks in Thailand, including most of those active in the FX market, participated in the pre-launch tests together with their USD correspondent banks in Hong Kong. On the back of the keen interest observed, I am confident that we will see sizeable flow of transactions through this link. 8. Expanding the footprint of the local financial market infrastructure is a strategy actively pursued by the HKMA to develop Hong Kong into a regional payment and settlement hub. This PvP link with Thailand is the third of its kind in the region, preceded by the launch of the links with Malaysia and Indonesia, in 2006 and 2010 respectively. According to the latest triennial survey on global FX market activity of the Bank for International Settlements, the average daily turnover in FX transactions in Asia increased by 27.5% from $ billion equivalent in April 2010 to $ billion equivalent in April 2013.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Nurturing young talent in Malaysia Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Kijang Emas Scholarship Award Ceremony for High Achievers, Kuala Lumpur, 6 May 2014. *  *  *  While the global economy continues to face uncertainties and significant challenges, the Malaysian economy has every potential to remain on a steady growth trajectory and move up the value chain. This is however only achievable if we can nurture the required talents. Talent development strategies and implementation is therefore one of the key priorities of the nation. We need to invest in our talent pipeline The Kijang Emas Scholarship Award is an eminent scholarship award reflecting the Bank’s commitment in creating a sustainable talent pool for the nation. The Kijang Emas scholarship is distinct from the Kijang scholarship whereby the recipients are given the freedom to pursue any field of study at top-notch universities in any country of their choice. The Bank also does not impose any bond on the recipient except that they return, contribute and take part in the progress and development of our beloved nation. To date, 42 high potential talent have been awarded the Kijang Emas scholarship. The recipients are currently pursuing their studies in diverse field of studies including Medicine, Dentistry, Genetics, Biochemistry, Dietetics, Physics, Engineering, Law, Psychology and Architecture in top universities around the world such as M.I.T., University of Pennsylvania and the University of Cambridge.
This underdevelopment is particularly striking when it is compared with the sophistication of some of the wholesale banking activities being offered. This is most regrettable and goes against the long-term interests of the banks themselves, not to mention those of the country. Households are, and will remain, the major source of the country’s financial savings. They deserve to be supplied with appropriate, safe and diversified vehicles which allow them to find an outlet for their financial wealth. Some small and medium-sized firms are net savers; others desperately need financing for development purposes, which financial markets will not be able to provide for a very long time indeed. I have known of a number of western European and even North American banks which derived great strength from their solid retail banking basis, which helped them considerably in situations in which some, if not many, of their cherished wholesale customers went bust. You will also need the retail banking basis for another reason. Satisfied household and small enterprise customers provide you with the greatest public support. And I can assure you that you will need this support in a democratic society. Banking has never been, and is unlikely to become, a popular activity, especially when it relies exclusively on customers recruited from among large corporations and very wealthy individuals. Beware of the danger of political backlash. In developing your retail activities, you will have to monitor western European experiences carefully.

Such problems have been encountered in Western market economies. It is clearly in Hungary’s interest to build up, or consolidate, the appropriate defences against the emergence of such problems. BIS Review 16/1997  -6-  5. In order to avoid any misunderstandings, I am not launching any appeal in favour of overregulation. In a market economy, the best regulator is the market itself. And when spontaneous market regulation fails - which does happen - the second-best solution is to use regulatory techniques which favour the emergence of market-led self-regulation. I am simply trying to make two points. First, that banking and finance have broader and more general implications for the economy as a whole than any other kind of activity. A crisis in, say, the steel industry creates hardship, but it does not create a general crisis. A banking crisis may well do so. Second, banking and finance are evolving at a very fast pace under the combined influence of technological progress, innovation and globalisation. This needs a careful adjustment of the regulatory framework, not its general weakening. 6. In a very different area, may I call your attention to the need to develop both retail banking in the narrow sense of the term and also banking services to the dynamic sector of small and medium-sized enterprises. In these fields, Hungarian banking is vastly underdeveloped, both in the number of consumer-friendly local offices and, even more importantly, in the range of high-quality banking services offered to these two groups of customers.
But if the economics literature is right about the greater impact of new technology on the distribution of income, at least in the US, how many would say we should tax computer investment? The distribution of the benefits: I want to end this section with something else the early economists would recognise – that, whatever it has done to widen the distribution of income, free trade with labour-rich countries can have significantly progressive effects on prices. In their early writings on international trade the classical economists reserved particular hostility for the Corn Laws. Introduced after the Napoleonic Wars, in the midst of an economic downturn, these measures imposed heavy restrictions and tariffs on agricultural imports. The result was a much higher price of food, benefiting agricultural landowners  14  and penalising the less well-off, for whom food was the major part of  their consumption. Their eventual repeal in 1846, a landmark in Britain’s move towards (and support for) free trade in the second half of the century, owed much to the intellectual arguments of the classical economists. But it also came about because of what those restrictions meant for the poor. 11  See for example Acemoglu (1998) and Behar (2013). There are some obvious historical exceptions to this support. In 1779, there was a spate of “anti-machinery” riots. In one of them, Richard Arkwright’s new mill in Birkacre, in Lancashire, was destroyed. Thirty years later the “Luddites”, formed mainly of textile workers, also sought to destroy labour-replacing weaving machinery.

It’s clearly much smaller than the  jobs weren’t replaced  estimated gross gains for consumers £ in addition, it’s almost certainly a significant over-estimate of the true losses. The blue line is the estimated cumulative impact of globalisation on aggregate labour income in this particular sector. Those are losses for the whole economy only if you believe the jobs lost in clothing and textiles weren’t ever replaced by any others. Yet there’s a big difference between particular jobs and overall employment. Individual jobs are lost continually. The official UK series on redundancies goes back to the mid-1990s. Source: ONS and own calculations  Since then, on average, there have been over 600,000 a year, not far from the number lost in the clothing industry over the past forty years. Yet aggregate employment has risen – since both the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s – and the rate of unemployment has fallen. In any reasonably flexible labour market new jobs are created as others are destroyed. This means the blue line is very much a ceiling on the gross losses. Allowing for the (very strong) likelihood that the jobs lost in the clothing sector have been replaced by new jobs in other sectors, a more realistic estimate would be closer to the origin, and the estimated net gains from globalisation all the greater. Trade, technology and distribution This simple comparison is quite striking. As any economist reading this will know well, however, it’s not the end of the story.
Ongoing financial sector reform will also build financial sector resiliency. Thailand’s financial master plan, now in its second phase, continues, and focuses on liberalization through increased competition, raising efficiency, and strengthening the financial infrastructure. On the third issue, global current account imbalances remain problematic, as they did before the global crisis. As long as structural problems remain in the US and Euro economies and China retains its present economic policies, it is likely global imbalances will persist into the medium term with the risk of a disruptive correction down the road. Such a correction may be particularly painful for small open economies. Firmer policy coordination between large economies is needed to ensure a smooth resolution of global imbalances. Ladies and Gentlemen, I am close to the conclusion of my talk today. I have given you my assessment of the global economy, my thoughts on our policy options going forward, and how monetary policy should be poised, pre-emptive and perceptive. One theme I emphasized today was the global environment of fluid capital and its attendant risks. As a point of departure, let me address how you, as the investor, can thrive in such a world of risk while investing in Thailand. There is no easy answer. Different investment strategies face different risks. Investors themselves are the most qualified for evaluating and managing their own risk exposures given their investment opportunities.

Strong domestic demand and diminishing excess capacity will surely lead to price pressure as producers compete for scarce resources. And as the recovery goes from strength to strength and inflationary pressure rises, so must the monetary policy stance regain its poise – poised at a neutral rate that is neither too accommodating nor too tight. After all, monetary stimulus can only do so much and excessive stimulus can lead to financial imbalances. Let me share my view on the surge in oil and commodity prices and, in particular, how we should respond to this challenge. The brief answer is that monetary policy stance continues to be one of regaining poise with increased vigilance over inflation. The long  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  answer is a bit more complex. The first-round supply-side shock of a rise in oil price should be allowed to pass through into domestic prices. Central banks should take care not to overreact to such price changes as they only reflect the welcome process of market re-balancing demand and supply. However, there is a possibility that a supply shock, especially if it is long-lived, may result in second-round inflation. By second-round inflation, I mean a persistent and general rise in prices. Second-round inflation may materialize if inflation expectations become unanchored and result in a change in price setting behavior fueled by strong domestic demand such that prices rise across the board – something that every central bank must pre-empt by anchoring expectations to short-circuit the vicious cost-price spiral.