samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This means that the depth of the recession in the Spanish economy and the subsequent recovery will also hinge on how our main trading partners fare. These three characteristics determine the particularities of the response the different economic policies must provide. The severity, temporariness and global impact of the shock require initially that economic policy actions should be forceful, time-limited (until employment and economic activity regain momentum following their induced hibernation) and internationally coordinated. 1  The aim of this shock therapy should be to extract the economy from this lockdown with the least possible damage and thus prevent a temporary shock causing persistent effects over time. This calls for resolute action during the current phase of restrictions on activity in order to mitigate the loss of income for households and firms affected by the crisis and to prevent the temporary shutdown in corporate activity becoming permanent. This action should be tailored to the duration of the restrictions on activity, bearing in mind that these will foreseeably affect the various productive sectors and firms unevenly. In the current phase of containing the economic impact of the crisis, fiscal policy is the most suitable tool as a first line of defence. Preventing the temporary shutdown in activity from leading to a permanent destruction of the productive system calls for the loss of income by the households and firms affected to be alleviated.

The resolution of such a bank would involve ten national authorities, ten resolution funds and ten deposit guarantee schemes; needless to say, there would be many challenges involved in ensuring efficient coordination. The envisaged EU authority would spare us a great deal of these efforts. And I see no reason why such a vision should be considered unrealistic. Events are moving faster now than before. Crises make us reconsider things that we would have seen as beyond the feasibility horizon. For example, of the challenges that I have mentioned here today, the financing part is probably the biggest obstacle for such a quantum leap. However, in another dimension and for the euro area we already have the EFSF in place. Such a facility would have been simply unthinkable a couple of years ago. Similarly, I consider the setting-up of a permanent EU or euro area resolution fund to be one imaginable way to proceed. Of course, I am fully aware of the technical, legal and, most importantly, political complexities of such a move. Nonetheless, Europe could advance step by step. The euro area may be the most realistic starting point, since a stronger concept of the euro area as a legitimate entity has already been emerging. Likewise, fiscal coordination has been fundamentally strengthened during the crisis, paving the way for a specific economic governance concept for the euro area.
And with growth turning out much weaker than expected, one might also have expected to see inflation turning out even weaker than that in the medium term. As Chart 3 shows, however, the outturn was in fact markedly higher than in our central projection, with inflation peaking at 5.2% in September 2011. In large part, that was down to higher than anticipated energy and import prices, as the strong recovery in the energyintensive emerging economies, together with supply concerns, put upward pressure on oil and other commodity prices. Higher energy and import prices also further depressed UK domestic demand growth through their adverse impact on household real incomes. The primary reason for believing that the nascent resurgence in growth that we have seen this year will be sustained lies in the moderation of these past headwinds. First, UK banks have made considerable progress in bolstering their capital positions, in part prompted by the Prudential Regulation Authority’s balance sheet exercise earlier this year. Price-to-book ratios have risen back to around unity. And bank funding costs have fallen sharply over the past year (Chart 4), aided by the Funding for Lending Scheme. UK banks are now well placed to provide the credit necessary to support a recovery. Second, the euro area is no longer in existential crisis, in part as a result of the willingness of the European Central Bank (ECB) to take redenomination risk off the table through its Outright Monetary Transactions programme.

Timing issues related to entry in ERM II In this process a first decision relates to the exchange rate strategy to be pursued in the interim period between now and entry into ERM II after EU accession. The EU Treaty is not restrictive in this regard. Any exchange rate strategy is acceptable as long as it contributes to real convergence and macroeconomic stability, and is compatible with ERM II by the time of entry in the mechanism. And since pegs to currencies other than the euro are incompatible with ERM II, our current exchange rate regime, which includes the euro, the US dollar and sterling, would need to change. In view of the positive experience with a fixed exchange rate regime and the absence so far of pressures on the lira during the on-going capital account liberalisation process, our strategy in this regard is to maintain this fixed regime but to gradually reduce the weight of the US dollar and sterling until the euro is the sole reference currency. This adjustment should not pose unsurmountable difficulties given that the euro already carries a weight of 70%. As for the timing and pace of the move to a full euro peg, these would depend, among other things, on the expected date of entry in EMU, which is conditioned by the two-year period embedded in ERM II, and also on the pace of the economy’s convergence to EU income levels and economic structures.
The Islamic Development Bank (IDB) in collaboration with the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB) has formed two taskforces – the Taskforce on Islamic Finance and Global Financial Stability and the High Level Taskforce on Liquidity Management. An important recommendation of the Task Force on Financial Stability that has been now operationalised in 2010 is the establishment of an Islamic Financial Stability Forum (IFSF) to be held twice a year following IFSB Council Meetings. It forms a strategic platform for productive dialogue to promote financial stability in the Islamic financial system. It also has the potential to interface with the Financial Stability Board in the conventional system to serve the common aim of achieving global financial stability. Let me conclude my remarks. An important dimension of Islamic finance is not only its potential role and relevance in contributing to global financial stability but also its potential to support overall global economic growth. More importantly, it also represents an important channel for greater connectivity among emerging economies to not only enhance trade and investment flows but also international financial flows between nations and in so doing contribute towards an optimum allocation of resources across borders. These combined efforts will contribute to the stability of the international financial system and global economic prosperity. 2  BIS Review 60/2010

Spencer Dale: Separating fact from fiction – household balance sheets and the economic outlook Speech by Mr Spencer Dale, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, at a lunch hosted by the Exeter Chamber of Commerce, Exeter, 24 September 2009. I would like to thank Andrew Benito, Rohan Churm and Richard Williams for their considerable help in preparing these remarks. The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of other members of the Monetary Policy Committee. *  *  *  I would like to thank the Exeter Chamber of Commerce for this invitation to speak to you today. I have strong ties to this part of the country. My family moved to Exmouth when I was 16. My father still lives in Exmouth and my parents-in-law in Exeter. So I visit here often. Exeter was the place that I first studied economics. My family moved to Devon just after I had completed my “O levels” and I studied for my “A levels” at Exeter college, just a few minutes walk from here. In fact after today’s lunch, I am going back to Exeter college to see my old economics tutor – who still teaches “A level” economics – and to spend some time meeting the current students. So it is a real pleasure to be here. The economy appears to have turned. Following the extraordinary falls in output at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, output appears to have stabilised.
Birgir Ísleifur Gunnarsson: Review of economic and financial development in Iceland in 2004 Address by Mr Birgir Ísleifur Gunnarsson, Governor and Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Central Bank of Iceland, at the Bank’s Annual Meeting, Reykjavík, 30 March 2005. *  *  *  On behalf of the Board of Governors of the Central Bank of Iceland I welcome you all to the Bank’s 44th annual meeting. The Bank’s financial accounts for the year 2004 have been ratified today by the Prime Minister. The Bank’s annual report has also been published. It includes a survey of the Bank’s activities and operation, along with a report on the Bank’s monetary policy and actions, the financial system, financial stability and the financial markets, and the main features of economic developments in the course of last year. Under the Act on the Central Bank of Iceland that was passed by Parliament four years ago, the main objective of monetary policy is price stability. The joint declaration by the Government and the Central Bank from March 27, 2001 set a formal inflation target for the Central Bank, i.e. it is obliged to aim at a rate of inflation, measured as the annual twelve-month increase in the CPI, of as close to 2½% as possible.

Caleb M Fundanga: Equal rights, equal opportunities – progress for all Opening remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the Official Launch of the Financial Institutions’ Exhibition and Workshop in commemoration of International Women’s Day 2010, Lusaka, 5 March 2010. *  *  *  The Deputy Permanent Secretary, Gender and Women in Development, Ms Christine Kalamwina; The International Labour Organisation Country Director, Mr Gerry Finnegan; The Deputy Governor – Administration, Bank of Zambia, Dr Tukiya Kankasa-Mabula; Chief Executives and Representatives of Exhibiting Institutions; Heads of Non Governmental Organisations; Distinguished Invited Guests; Members of the Press; Ladies and Gentlemen It is my honour and privilege to participate in the launch of this important exhibition by financial institutions in commemoration of the International Women’s Day for 2010 under the global theme “Equal Rights, Equal Opportunities: Progress for All.” Ladies and Gentlemen, as you may be aware, the International Year for Women was declared by the United Nations in 1975. Since then many countries world over celebrate International Women’s Day to recognise the achievements of women without regard to national, ethnic, cultural, economic or political divisions. International Women’s Day is an occasion to look back on past struggles and accomplishments but even more importantly a time to look ahead to untapped potential and opportunities that await future generations of women. Each year on this special day, hundreds of International Women’s Day events occur all around the world.
To our guests who have travelled from far, I wish you a very pleasant stay in Kuala Lumpur. 2  BIS Review 129/2009

The share of the external debt in GDP accounts for 42.0%, which ranks the Republic of Macedonia in the countries with moderate to medium degree of indebtedness. Sound and stable banking system in the Republic of Macedonia In 2000, the banking sector of the Republic of Macedonia continued to recover from the adverse effects caused by the external shock in 1999. The share of high-risk credits in the total credit exposure of the banks in the first nine months of 2000 reduced by 4.1 percentage points, however, still remaining high at the level of 37.3%. Nevertheless, the high average capital adequacy ratio of 33.8% at the end of September 2000, positively affects the banking system stability, by far exceeding the required minimum of 8%. Significant investments of foreign capital in the Macedonian banks was registered in the first six months of 2000, increasing the share of the foreign capital in the total banking capital from 19% to 33.3%. In 2000, the legal framework regulating the banks’ operations was subject to fundamental improvement. In that context, the newly adopted Banking Law in July 2000 is of great importance, in which preparation the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia had a considerable contribution. This Law represents a step towards the harmonization with the European legislative and the European Union Directives and achieves greater degree of compliance with the so-called Core Basle Principles for Effective Banking Supervision. In November 2000, certain changes were made in the regulation on banks’ foreign exchange operations, as well.
Immediately following Sandy, our Regional and Community Outreach function reached out to all of the affected communities as part of a needs assessment. We asked: “How can the New York Fed best leverage our resources to help our community?” After dozens of conversations with leaders of the community, we determined that pulling together key service providers under one roof would make a useful contribution. Our outreach team organized a free relief clinic in this very building. We brought together a wide variety of government agency representatives and other service providers. I would like to acknowledge what is a long list: Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Small Business Administration (SBA), the Office of the New York Attorney General, the New York 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  State Department of Financial Services, the New York Legal Assistance Group, Staten Island Legal Services, the Legal Aid Society, MFY Legal Services, various bar associations, New York City Department of Small Business Services, Center for New York City Neighborhoods, Neighborhood Housing Services of Staten Island and the Northfield Local Community Development Corporation. I’m proud to say we were able to assist over 150 Staten Islanders, including homeowners, tenants and small business owners. We also heard that it could be challenging to find key recovery information and advice online. So once again, we pulled key resources under one roof – or I should say one URL.

Norges Bank operates a flexible inflation targeting regime so that variability in inflation and variability in output and employment are given weight when we set the interest rate. Monetary policy influences the economy with long and variable lags. Norges Bank sets the interest rate with a view to stabilising inflation at the target within a reasonable time horizon, normally 1-3 years. The relevant horizon will depend on disturbances to which the economy is exposed and how they affect the path for inflation and the real economy ahead. We have increased the transparency surrounding the basis for monetary policy decisions in recent years. Norges Bank’s statements following its monetary policy meetings, press conferences, the Inflation Report and speeches provide an account of economic developments that are of importance to the Executive Board’s assessments and interest rate decisions. All publications are available on our website. Underlying each interest rate decision is a monetary policy strategy drawn up by the Executive Board every four months. The strategy is published directly after it has been approved and at the start of the relevant strategy period. Developments in inflation in 2004 and the first months of 2005 Between December 2002 and March 2004, the key rate was reduced by a total of 5.25 percentage points. The interest rate has since remained at 1.75 per cent. The interest rate decline can be ascribed to a number of factors. In late autumn 2002, inflation started to fall. The inflation projections were also revised down.
In pursuit of this we look at factors affecting the underlying robustness of the financial system, as well as potential “triggers” which, especially at times of structural weakness, could bring on a crisis. Our remit is of course in relation to the UK financial system – but this work has a substantial international dimension, given the openness of the UK economy, and the international character of much of the City. What does this mean in practice? The Bank’s financial stability work include such things as overseeing the UK payments systems; analysing broader developments in the banking, securities and insurance sectors, and the evolving strategies of London’s securities exchanges; looking at developments in emerging market economies; and contributing to the debate on the reform of the international financial system. In short, the Bank’s financial stability team has to analyse and respond to any developments – market or institutional; structural or temporary – that could threaten financial stability. Our second relevant core purpose is to promote the competitiveness of the UK financial services sector. This is not a lobbying function; we are concerned with the promotion of effectiveness and efficiency, not the acquisition of favours. Nor is it a responsibility exercised only in respect of UK owned firms. The UK financial services sector is more truly international than that in any other country in the world. The Bank, and the other authorities in the City, have an unwavering commitment to openness, and the provision of a level playing field to all firms regardless of nationality.

The current-account balance, which had exhibited a secular deficit during the 1980s and 1990s, posted a surplus of nearly 2% of GDP during the 2000s. A review of the fiscal ledgers yields similar numbers. What happened? What was the miracle? In a word: China. China’s strong growth began to permeate international commodity markets early in the decade, leading to an enormous increase in the region’s terms of trade beginning around 2004. This major increase in income enabled the economies to deleverage without having to make large adjustments to expenditure or output. Also, the real exchange rate appreciated by almost 20% with respect to trading partners during the 2000s, which contrasts with the greater stability of the 1990s. Of course, better macroeconomic policies contributed markedly to this success. Whereas previous income booms had been accompanied by strongly pro-cyclical economic policies that incubated problems, this time greater efforts at fiscal saving, more exchange rate flexibility and better banking supervision helped the countries take advantage of the high commodity prices. But for a large part of the region, the seed of the success of the 2000s was sown by China. Today our objective is to look ahead, not to dwell on thoughts about the region during the past decade. The strength of the Chinese economy leads one to think that this phenomenon of high terms of trade will go on for some time, posing a number of challenges to economic development in the region.
look at the standard deviation of the dots in the Fed’s dot chart. … At their latest meeting the FOMC members felt more certain about the coming hike in the fed funds rate than they did a year ago.”2 I cite Mr. Slok’s analysis only as an example of an entire field of study – a veritable industry – that has evolved around “the dots.” So extensive is the preoccupation with this that it would not surprise me if Harrah’s Casino here on Canal Street eventually starts taking bets on how the dots will shift from quarter to quarter. Surely, economists of high repute are aware of the imperfections of this exercise and the fundamental problem with date-based forward guidance (projecting a schedule for future policy changes). We, on the FOMC, certainly are. Dr. Seuss or Strother Martin? There have been suggestions from outside and within the Fed on how to better present our “best guesses” as to when we will move the base rate for anchoring the yield curve. For example, some have suggested identifying which dots belong to current voting members of the FOMC. Others have suggested that we report only the median of responses or the median of voter responses, rather than the entire array of dots. But neither of these approaches would do anything to enlighten the markets as to the views of future voters, nor would they overcome the underlying problem with date-based forward guidance. What to do?

But the composition of those 10 voters will change each year going forward. Here, for example, is how the voters have changed just since last year and how the voting group will morph on into 2016, with those names in red indicating new positions or votes. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Dot-ology or doxology? Even though the Fed has a remarkable assembly of the best economic thinkers on the planet (present company excluded), no one on the FOMC is a seer and none possess Nostradamus-like insight, even when looking out just a couple of quarters; and, given that the roster of those who actually vote on policy is constantly changing, it is a wonder that the analytical community and market economists have become so fixated on “the dots.”  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Some analysts practically worship the dots. They have become analytical idols around which a doxology of sorts has developed (“Praise dots from whom all insights flow”). Others consider their fallibility but still spill plenty of ink slicing and dicing them. For example, here is a foray into dot-ology sent out on April 23 by the highly regarded chief international economist of Deutsche Bank, Torsten Slok: “One important question is how confident FOMC members are in their forecasts. One way to measure this is to look at the standard deviation around FOMC members’ forecasts of where they think the fed funds rate will be in two years’ time, i.e.