samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
5  BIS Review 33/2000  Some people in the Eurozone acknowledge these concerns, but they are inclined to argue that if a country participating in the monetary union were to find itself in an unsustainable situation and given that it would have no macroeconomic way out - through exchange rate adjustment, or independent monetary policy action, or fiscal stimulus beyond the limits of the Growth and Stability pact - and given limited labour migration or fiscal redistribution at the pan-European level - then it would have an overwhelming incentive to undertake the supply-side reforms which have proved so difficult to introduce up until now. One of my ECB colleagues in fact once put it to me that - “when we have closed off every other policy option, we will finally be forced to do the things we know that we should have done all along!” I hope that this proves to be right and that it does help ease the tensions. Supply-side flexibility within Europe is crucial in my view not just to the success of the euro, but to the success of the European economy in a much broader sense - to the resolution of Europe’s chronic unemployment problem and to the contribution which a strong European economy can make to the whole of the world economy.

But it will need to be accompanied by corresponding moderation of the growth of domestic demand - after the offsetting stimulus of a year ago - if we are to maintain overall stability. That essentially is why interest rates in the UK have had to rise since last autumn. We are now in a position where the economy as a whole is again growing above trend - after a pause a year or so ago - while inflation is running - and has been running for nearly a year - slightly below the Government’s 2½% target. Looking ahead, there is the tantalising prospect of new factors that might help to hold the rate of inflation down, at least in the short term. There is evidence for example, although it is hard to evaluate, of more intensive retail price competition, squeezing retail margins across the board, and that could hold down prices, at least for a time. And this effect could intensify and extend further into the future as a result of the spread of e-commerce. And there is, on the supply-side of the economy, the possibility (though so far sadly not much actual statistical evidence) that the spread of IT will accelerate productivity growth across the economy - as it has in the United States, raising the underlying rate of potential output growth at least for a time.
Despite the fears of some of the local banks that they would have to cope with a flood of new foreign bank branches, no foreign banks have as yet taken the opportunity to establish additional branches. Of course, many foreign banks are engaged in wholesale, corporate or private banking business in Hong Kong and do not require an extensive branch network. Moreover, a number of banks are still recovering from the Asian crisis or are in the process of merging, and are not in an expansion mode at present. As mentioned previously, however, there are some foreign banks that are enthusiastic about building up their presence in Hong Kong. But perhaps for these, the organic route of establishing new branches, and having these limited to three, is too slow and restrictive. Acquisition of an existing operation is likely to be more attractive for such banks. We have already said that we will review the impact of the three building condition in the first quarter of 2001. If it appears that it is serving little useful purpose - because there is not in any case a huge demand on the part of foreign banks for additional branches - we may simply dispense with the condition altogether. Similarly, no RLB has yet applied to join the RTGS system. It is however early days for this, and we are aware that some of the more active RLBs are considering whether to apply.

Of course, there could be a more significant impact in July 2001 when the process of deregulation is due to be completed with the removal of the interest rate cap on savings accounts and of the prohibition of interest on current accounts. Based on self-assessments that we asked the banks to prepare earlier this year, there is a general view that competition in the banking sector will intensify after the final phase of deregulation and that there could be quite a significant impact on the net interest margin. That was also the conclusion of the KPMG/Barents Consultancy Study. But the actual impact will obviously depend on the conditions at the time. If the supply of deposits remains ample in a year’s 3  BIS Review 69/2000  time, banks will have less reason to bid aggressively for deposits. Despite this, many banks may use deregulation as an opportunity to try to gain market share and to attract new customers by offering new deposit products with an attractive interest rate. Innovation and competition of that kind is what deregulation is intended to achieve. It should also encourage more efficiency in pricing and the elimination of cross-subsidisation. Expect therefore to see more transaction fees and charges to recover servicing costs, and use of differential pricing to encourage customers with low and volatile balances to use less costly delivery channels such as the internet.
They will again be put to the test when the terms-of-trade change is reversed and the gains either fully or partly dissipate. Monetary policy in Norway is oriented towards low and stable inflation. Low and stable inflation provides enterprises and households with an anchor for inflation expectations. Given that there is confidence in the nominal anchor, monetary policy shall also contribute to stable developments in the real economy. Norges Bank therefore operates a flexible inflation targeting regime. This means that weight is given both to variability in inflation and variability in output and employment in interest-rate setting. Monetary policy is facing particular challenges. Inflation has been considerably lower than the inflation target during the past three years. During the same three-year period, economic growth has been high, and higher than our estimate for long-term growth potential. The output gap has shifted from negative to positive. Unemployment is low and falling, and the increase in house prices, equity prices and credit has been high. Monetary policy has been and continues to be expansionary. Real interest rates have been low, and considerably lower than what is regarded as a neutral level. The expansionary monetary stance must be seen in the light of the fact that inflation has been very low and that there was idle capacity for a longer period. BIS Review 49/2006  1  The economy is periodically exposed to unexpected supply- and demand-side disturbances that affect both inflation and output.

When evaluating whether the interest rate level is appropriate, one must consider the quality of the analyses of developments in the Norwegian and international economy, as well as the trade-offs that have been made. When we look back and assess interest-rate setting, we must also take into account the reasons for the deviations from the target. For the average annual rise in consumer prices over time to be the same as the inflation target, the disturbances that affect the economy must be fairly symmetrical. Price inflation has been lower than the inflation target for a longer period and the interest rate is being set with a view to gradually closing the inflation gap. The aim is not for inflation to overshoot the target to the same extent a few years ahead. Therefore, when we in retrospect assess interest-rate setting, we cannot solely look at average CPI inflation. Monetary policy must also be seen in the light of historical inflation. In the 1970s and 1980s, inflation was very high and volatile. The economy did not at that time have a nominal anchor. Since the beginning of the 1990s, inflation has been low and stable, both internationally and in Norway. While inflation in the 1970s and 1980s varied between 4 and 15 per cent, inflation has generally remained in the interval 1½ - 3½ per cent since 1990. The economy now has a nominal anchor.
In essence, a decision to offer of e-krona will make sure that the citizens of Sweden continue to have access to risk-free Swedish kronor for payments in the future. To achieve this, in its role as issuer of means of payment, the Riksbank needs to modernise its product. We can see this as adopting new technology in the same way as we replaced copper plates with paper notes. Although the issuance of an e-krona can be seen as fulfilling the Riksbank’s obligation to supply banknotes and coins with new technology, it is clear that the ekrona addresses broader issues about the state’s role in the payment and monetary system. For this reason, the Riksbank wrote to the Riksdag in the spring of 2019 providing input to an inquiry that should, among other things, clarify the Riksbank’s mandate regarding the e-krona.11 The inquiry was appointed in December 2020 and will deliver its report in November 2022. Enhancing cross-border payments – a global priority But payments will undergo even more changes in the future. Allow me to conclude here with some words on a subject where the Riksbank, and myself, are heavily involved in international work; cross-border payments. Unfortunately, cross-border payments are one area where I think both the public and private sector have failed to deliver. Of the almost 8 billion people on the planet, about 1.5 billion lack sufficient access to financial services, including reasonable access to a low-cost bank account.

One reassuring point is that the major UK banks and building societies were tested against precisely this scenario by the Bank of England in 2015 and demonstrated they had the resilience to weather such a shock and carry on lending to the UK economy. Conclusion Looking back over the last two years, I think that the slow healing story can still explain where we are and provide a guide to our future prospects. But the story has to be adapted in the face of more UK and world weakness than I had expected and this weakness might be signalling that there are deeper structural factors at work. Nonetheless, my central projection remains that the UK economy will continue to grow solidly and that inflation will return to target over the next few years. But, as always, policymakers need to be alive to the possible meaning of disappointments, to be very sensitive to the possibility of changing temperatures around them, and to the risk of unfortunate events. We have a range of tools at our disposal and should be ready to use them whichever risk materialises. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7
The Albanian banking sector bore a considerable part of the financial bill of the pandemic and provided a continuous financial support to enterprises and households. In addition, the banking system carried out its function without jeopardising the main parameters of its financial soundness: the level of liquidity; profitability and capitalisation. Nowadays, the public considers our banking system a safe destination to hold their savings; enterprises find a source of funds, services and consultancy, while the economy finds a promoter of development and absorber of shocks. In parallel with these main directions, the Bank of Albania has worked and has achieved successful results in other fields as well, among which I find it appropriate to highlight: The payment system, which is already operating within a legal and regulatory framework in full compliance with the EU standards and with a payment infrastructure in an ongoing modernisation process. Here, I mention the approval of the new Law on the Payment System, which transposes the relevant directive of the European Union and paves the way for increasing the number of actors and strengthening the market effectiveness. Also, in 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  January 2022, the Bank of Albania has started operating the complete infrastructure for the processing and settlement of euro denominated payments within Albania. This development will result in lower costs and considerable reduction of the time for the realisation of payments, with a considerable benefit to both the Albanian enterprises and households.

Various indicators suggest that yields have fallen further from a low level, and that prices have risen once again. Moreover, there are isolated signs that risk appetite among the domestically focused banks has, if anything, increased again over the last six months. For example, affordability risk and direct interest rate risk at domestically focused banks have risen once more. The SNB will continue to monitor developments on the mortgage and real estate markets closely. Accordingly, it will regularly reassess the need for an adjustment of the countercyclical capital buffer. Announcement of issue date I would like to round up my speech with a few remarks on the new banknote series. On 14 August 2015, the SNB announced that it would begin issuing the new Swiss banknote series in April 2016. The first denomination to be released will be the 50-franc note. Today, we can announce the exact issue date. The new 50-franc note will be presented to the public for the first time at a news conference on 6 April 2016, and will first be issued on Tuesday, 12 April 2016. The new notes will be put into circulation continuously from that date onwards. A largescale information campaign will inform the general public about the new note and on ways to check its authenticity. The remaining banknotes in the series will be issued subsequently at half-yearly or yearly intervals. The SNB will announce each new issue date well in advance. The current eighth banknote series will continue to be legal tender until further notice.
Although the housing market may have its peculiarities, it essentially functions like any other market – a high demand and small supply mean high prices. The mortgage market The significant changes in the mortgage market have also contributed to house prices rising so sharply. These changes are based in the credit deregulation that took place during the second half of the 1980s, but it is not until the last few years that they have really made an impact. The crisis at the beginning of the 1990s delayed developments here, too. One important change in the mortgage market is that competition has stiffened and that the mortgage institutions’ margins have been pressed down, which has cut mortgage interest rates more than the general fall in interest rates. Moreover, the mortgage institutions have become more flexible with regard to the degree of borrowing and now offer a broader spectrum of products. One change that I feel deserves a little extra attention is the fact that mortgage institutions have become less strict in their amortisation requirements. One might wonder why the amortisation periods have increased as much as they have and why fewer households are choosing to amortise. For new house owners with relatively ordinary incomes, it may seem meaningless to amortise SEK 1,000 a month on a loan of, for instance, SEK 1.5 million.

3  Third, the financing gap is now much lower than it was when the crisis emerged: after jumping in 2009 to 16.4% of GDP, it gradually decreased year after year, it went below the 10% benchmark in 2014, then to 7.5% in 2017 and it stagnated now in 2018. (Figure 5). Fourth, the refinancing risk has been significantly diminished as it is negatively correlated with the average maturity. As of June 2018, the average maturity of Romania’s Eurobonds is 9.7 years (Figure 6), and the investors base is much more diversified than in 2011. Average maturity for local bonds doubled from 1.6 to 3.2 years, and the average maturity of our debt is 6.4 years, compared to 3.8 years in 2011. Moreover, the share of public debt with fixed interest rate is 90%, which reduces the interest rate risk on the stock of debt. Regaining and consolidating our access to the international markets after the crisis has been a major success of all governments and it is a sign of trust in our economy. Another factor pointing towards lower contagion risk from external shocks refers to net external debt. The net external debt is now lower than in 2008: 20.2% of GDP in 2017, against 27% in 2008 (Figure 7). The reduced contagion risk is also visible in the banking sector, through at least 5 key indicators.
In addition, much of our region was spared the worst effects of the non-prime mortgage boom and bust. There was generally lower penetration of nonprime loans into our housing markets, and in general, our region shows better performance, with fewer delinquencies and foreclosures. This pattern was particularly true across Upstate New York. However, as can be seen on the New York Fed’s U.S. Credit Conditions maps, there are significant pockets of housing distress around the greater New York City metro area, especially in communities in the Bronx, Dutchess County and Long Island. Indeed, we recently documented the severity of problems on Long Island in our Facts and Trends publication. Moreover, New Jersey had non-prime mortgage activity closer to the national average and now has more delinquencies and foreclosures than is the case for much of the region. As the uneven pattern of nonprime lending suggests, the region is hardly uniform. The housing section fared better in Upstate New York than it did in much of the region during the  4  BIS Review 137/2010  recession. In fact, the housing boom and bust largely bypassed Upstate New York, where construction activity is a relatively small part of the overall economy. Relative to Upstate New York, most areas in downstate New York and northern New Jersey more closely tracked the national cycle. Sales activity and home prices ramped up during the housing boom, but then dropped sharply. More recently – over the past year – home sales and prices in the region have followed different paths.

16 See the New York Fed’s Economic Press Briefing on Household Borrowing, Student Debt Trends and  Homeownership, April 3, 2017. 17 For example, the default rate for students from relatively modest backgrounds is around 35 percent, 2-3 times  that of those from wealthier backgrounds. See Press Briefing on Household Debt, with Focus on Student Debt, p.26. 18 Bleemer, Brown, Lee, Strair, and van der Klaauw, 2017. Echoes of Rising Tuition in Students’ Borrowing,  Educational Attainment, and Homeownership in Post-Recession America . Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 820 (July). Tracy, Schneider, and Chan, 1999. Are Stocks Overtaking Real Estate in Household Portfolios? Current Issues in Economics and Finance, vol. 5, no. 5 (April). 19 Zafar, Bleemer, Brown, and van der Klaauw, 2014. What Americans (Don’t) Know about Student Loan  Collections. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics (June 5). 20 Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, and Yagan, 2017. Mobility Report Cards: The Role of Colleges in  Intergenerational Mobility. NBER Working Paper No. 23618 (July). 21 See Richard Reeves, Dream Hoarders (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2017). 7/7  BIS central bankers' speeches
Sunil Mendis: Financial system stability and Basel II - the way forward Inaugural address by the Chief Guest Mr Sunil Mendis, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at the 17th Anniversary Convention of the Association of Professional Bankers, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 28 August 2005. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen It is an honour for me to be invited to give the keynote address at this forum of eminent bankers in Sri Lanka and distinguished persons from the international banking arena. I am happy to see our friends from the Reserve Bank of India and from the Basel Committee who will no doubt make this convention very lively for discussion on a subject which concerns us all. As Central Bankers we have a common interest in ensuring financial stability which impacts upon the macroeconomic performance. Further, as monetary policy transmission takes place through the financial institutions for the achievement of its target of economic and price stability, the Central Bank has the responsibility for ensuring that the financial system as a whole is sound. It should be strong enough to withstand internal and external shocks. We must ensure that our payments and settlements system is protected from the risk of failure at any cost since it is the conduit through which our economic business and commercial activity is facilitated.

Policies should be implemented to prohibit any behaviour or relationship that diminishes its quality. This is very often evident in conflicts of interest, connected lending, which is not on an arms length, and preferential treatment to related parties. The independence of directors too is crucial where directors should have the ability to exercise objective judgement, regardless of board structures or ownership structures. Well established corporate governance committees such as the Board Audit Committee which oversees the bank’s internal auditors, with objectivity and independence, should  1/2  comprise of non-executive members of the Board who have the requisite knowledge that is commensurate with the complex nature of the banking institution. Independent, competent and qualified auditors is an essential pre-requisite of good corporate governance which would achieve a number of important objectives. It would ensure timely identification of risks and the publication of financial statements which accurately represent the financial position and performance of the bank. Auditors should understand their duty to the bank and its stakeholders to exercise due professional care in the conduct of audits. In this connection, we have, in the recent past, strengthened the relationship of auditors with the regulator and the company to benefit from each others’ capabilities, expertise and knowledge. Basel II has attempted to capture all these critical aspects into the new accord.