samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A more accurate description of the red line is average wage growth for people continuously in employment, adjusted for any the impact of changes in average age and experience across the workforce. BIS central bankers’ speeches  13

And, at least in the initial phase of a bubble, there is no lack of "fundamental" explanations for observed movements in asset prices. It may be useful, to better deal with procyclicality in the future, to consider some rebalancing in the burden of the proof. Significant and lasting departures from past levels or trends in key asset prices, risk premia or credit aggregates should trigger a macro prudential review, with the objective of detecting amplification mechanisms at work. This seems justified when looking at the current social costs of previous hesitation. This is also a rational course of action. One major source of procyclicality is excessive risk taking. Bubbles develop because investors have an incentive to ignore the "tail risk" that the bubble may burst. Because bubbles are mostly financed by credit, most of the risk is shifted to lenders. This asymmetry in incentives is extremely difficult to eliminate ex ante. Hence the need, for macro supervisors, to monitor closely the financial system and preserve their possibility to intervene by establishing the kind of presumption I just mentioned. Instruments The most important instrument in our current toolkit are capital requirements put on some financial intermediaries. Capital requirements primarily act as compulsory buffers imposed on banks and their shareholders. They also have an incentive function: to drive and limit risk taking by bank managers. So it seems natural, when addressing procyclicality, to think of countercyclical capital requirements. However, capital requirements may not be binding when they are needed most.
Under the provisions of Art. 10(2) of the Statute, two groups of countries have been formed at present according to the size of their economies and their financial sectors. The first group of five governors has four voting rights and the second group of 14 governors has 11 voting rights. 4  The unweighted qualified majority regime (two-thirds of the votes) is used in very specific cases such as that envisaged by Art. 14(4) of the Statute regarding the performance of functions by the NCBs which might interfere with the objectives and the tasks of the Eurosystem. Where decisions are adopted by weighted majority (Art. 10(3) of the Statute), the rotation of voting rights does not apply. In these cases, an alternate or substitute appointed for the meeting is allowed to vote, which is not permitted for other voting. The votes of the Executive Board have a weighting of zero. The weighted simple majority regime is envisaged for decisions on the subscription of capital and adjustments to shares (Art. 28 of the Statute), on the key for capital subscription (Art. 29 of the Statute) or on the allocation of monetary income to central banks (Art. 32 of the Statute) or of losses and net profits to central banks (Art. 33 of the Statute). Where decisions are adopted by weighted qualified majority, half of the shareholders (10) and two-thirds of the subscribed capital are needed. The type of decisions adopted using this regime are those affecting increases in and payments of capital of the ECB (Art.

10  In countries where supervisory competences lie with an institution other than the central bank, a representative of the latter can also attend meetings, although only one vote per country is counted. 11  To prevent conflicts of interest between monetary policy and supervisory powers, the ECB ensures a separation of objectives, decision-making, processes and tasks. This includes strict separation of the Governing Council’s meetings. 12  This procedure does not apply to ECB decisions relating to its general framework, which are adopted by the Governing Council in accordance with the ECB’s standard procedures, following a proposal of the Executive Board. Nor does it apply to macroprudential decisions, which are proposed by the Supervisory Board and may be approved, rejected or amended by the Governing Council. 5  draft decision (which has not yet been the case), it is returned to the Supervisory Board, which will examine the Governing Council’s reasons and submit a new draft decision. To resolve any differences of views expressed in this interaction, the SSM Regulation provides for the creation of a Mediation Panel, on which each Member State has a representative chosen from among the members of the Governing Council and the Supervisory Board. This mediation process is activated at the request of one or more NCAs, when they fail to agree with the rationale for the objection raised by the Governing Council.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  To apply – or even try to apply – a federal or pan-European approach to such a diversified financial system requires, in my eyes, a key precondition: to have a functioning European federation in the first place. If that is not possible then we should not try to create half-baked pan-European solutions here in the area of banking – an area which is arguably more sensitive in many aspects than that of fiscal policy and fiscal transfers. If we are not careful enough, we risk repeating the difficulties of the single currency project. The euro is a currency without a state. This means nobody knows who should pay what to whom in bad times. It is for good times only. And we now all know very well that this is the biggest shortcoming of the whole project. Some believe that cross-border integration is good per se, without any conditions. I tend to believe – not least because of the current crisis – that cross-border integration of national financial systems is welcome only if EACH of the national systems alone is and can be sufficiently sound and stable. That’s why we at the Czech National Bank are so nervous about this tendency to continue separating the powers of supervisory and regulatory authorities from their responsibilities in the area of financial regulation. These powers are gradually shifting in small steps towards those who have no direct responsibility and no pots of money to pay should things go wrong in the future.

Mojmír Hampl: The EU banking industry Speaking points by Mr Mojmír Hampl, Vice Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the European Economic Congress “Section: Banking Industry in the EU”, Katowice, 15 May 2012. *  *  *  “Dzen dobry” – this is unfortunately the only thing I can credibly say in Polish, so the rest will be in my imperfect English. Thanks to the organizers for the invitation and for the opportunity to participate in such a distinguished panel. It is my first time here and I can only hope not the last one after I finish my presentation. Given the time constraints I will focus on a just a couple of quick points to stimulate the debate. My key point is: Let’s not repeat the same mistakes again and again. What I mean is this: Since the onset of the current crisis there has been a constant push for a more pan-European, or “federal-like”, approach to the regulation, supervision and potentially also resolution of the financial industry in the EU. The famous de Larosière report and all its consequences, such as the three new pan-European supervisory agencies, are just direct results of this push and this way of thinking. Some may recall that the Czech authorities were quite reluctant to accept this approach and also the final compromise which brought these agencies into existence, and we believe we had good reasons for this.
If I may be allowed a short digression, the very recourse to a VAT-adjusted inflation measure in our analysis and communication came under fire. This is by no means different in nature than the Eurostat’s HICP at constant taxes – just more refined, in the sense that we take into account the fact that the pass-through of a VAT change is below 100% for most CPI items. Coming back to the current economic context, it should be pointed out that behind the “perfect storm” of deflationary exogenous shocks (low energy, food and metal prices, successive VAT rate cuts), demand-side inflationary pressures are looming: a positive output gap is emerging, unit labour cost pressures are building up, fiscal policy is taking a strongly expansionary turn. As such, while medium-term prospects appear to call for a tightening bias of monetary policy, the short-term context of deeply negative inflation makes communication with the public rather challenging. Specifically, we have to contend with the idea that the central bank should lower interest rates in response to VAT rate cuts. It proves more difficult than we thought to make people understand that the current negative readings in inflation are just transitory and reflect neither postponed consumption, nor sluggish wage growth one would associate with  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  negative inflation expectations – these actually remained anchored to the target. Therefore, none of the ingredients which make for a scary deflationary trap are present.

Indeed, after the Global Financial Crisis, the US suffered its worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. In a desperate bid to stave off the recession, the US literally moved mountains, including introducing the unprecedented QE policy and splashing out $ trillion between 2008 and 2010 to cut taxes and implement other fiscal policy measures to prop up the economy. However, as we can see from Chart 1, the current recovery has been the weakest of all the economic cycles in the past 55 years. The average growth rate is just 2.2%, half the average rate of 4.6% in the previous recovery cycles. (Chart 1) 5. As for employment, the US has lost a total of 8.7 million jobs during the financial crisis and recession, with the unemployment rate peaking at 10%. Although employment bottomed out in 2010, and some 13 million jobs have been created since then, this only represents 4.3 million more jobs compared with the peak eight years ago in early 2008, and way behind the 8.8 million people who have been added to the labour force over the same period. In other words, while the US unemployment rate has declined to 5% recently, it does not mean the labour market has fully recovered. One of the main reasons for the faster-thanexpected drop in the unemployment rate is the dwindling labour force participation rate, from an average of 66% in 2007 to the current 62.4%, the lowest since 1977.
Martin Flodén: Measures to mitigate the risks from high and increasing household debt Speech by Mr Martin Flodén, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at BNP Paribas, Stockholm, 20 November 2014. *  *  *  The high level of household debt has been the subject of much discussion in connection with the monetary policy decisions in recent years. The discussions have partly related to the extent that these debts entail risks and partly to the measures that would be most effective in counteracting these risks. Today, I would like to briefly present my view of these issues, and I will link my thoughts to the discussion at last week’s meeting of the Financial Stability Council. In order to understand the risks, it is necessary to broaden the perspective somewhat and to examine the entire housing and mortgage markets in Sweden. Such an examination reveals that the Swedish markets are special in several respects, both in comparison with the previous situation in Sweden and with the situation in other countries. The household debt ratio, that is debts in relation to disposable incomes, has almost doubled over the last 20 years. The tax system encourages indebtedness by offering tax deductions for interest payments, and the households amortise at a slow rate. At the same time, housing prices, especially for tenant-owned apartments, have increased rapidly. The fact that housing construction has been low despite the rising prices indicates that the supply side of the housing market is not working well.

The financial system was only saved from total seizure through the prompt and internationally co-ordinated action of the authorities to inject extra capital into the banks, guarantee their funding and boost the provision of liquidity. Around the same time, the confidence of businesses and households, already weak, collapsed. Many businesses told us the same story – that orders “fell off a cliff” in September and October. That story was repeated around the world, and is evident in the surveys of business activity (see Chart 1) and more recently in the first estimates for growth in the final quarter of last year. The global economy is now in the throes of a sharp and synchronised downturn. Banks have responded to the loss of confidence in the financial markets, and the deterioration in economic prospects more generally, by tightening the terms and availability of credit so as to bolster their weakened balance sheets. That threatens to generate an adverse feedback loop: the worse the outlook becomes, the lower the chance of a loan being repaid and the more cautious the banks become about extending new loans, making the outlook yet bleaker. We hear many stories of businesses finding credit harder to get, though I understand that a recent NFU survey found that farmers’ relationships with their bankers remained fairly good. The only bright spot – at least for most of us, if not for you – has been the collapse in commodity prices as the slowdown spread to the emerging market economies.
It is far better to get individuals to invest their funds directly, instead of relying on the Government to do it for them. This will not only be better for developing the fund management industry. It will also promote the spirit of self-reliance and personal responsibility that is essential to Singapore’s success. Dr Richard Hu announced in the Budget Speech that MOF will introduce a Supplementary Retirement Scheme. This is a tax-advantaged vehicle for individuals to save for retirement, over and above CPF  BIS Review 30/2000  8  contributions, like US 401(k) accounts. If this scheme takes off, it will give a boost to the fund management and annuities industry. But the main issue is the CPF funds themselves. The CPF already allows members to invest their savings in unit trusts or other privately managed long term investment schemes. But most members still just leave their money with the CPF. We should find more effective ways to encourage and enable CPF members to look after their retirement 6. Conclusion  There is no turning back from our quest to liberalise and to go global. We will continue developing a more open and competitive environment, in order to create a dynamic and vibrant world-class financial centre. In this new regime, local financial institutions must upgrade and match international standards of management and technology, or risk becoming marginalised. MAS will work together with the industry in their efforts to meet this challenge.

Muhammad Al-Jasser: Overview of the Islamic banking industry Speech by Dr Muhammad Al-Jasser, Governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, at The Fifth Conference for Islamic Banks and Financial Institutions, hosted by the Central Bank of Syria, Damascus, 15–16 March 2010. *  *  *  In the Name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful Let me first thank the Central Bank of Syria, the official sponsor of the Fifth Conference for Islamic Banks and Financial Institutions, and, in particular, I would like to thank the Bank’s Governor, His Excellency Dr. Adeeb Mayalah. Ladies and Gentlemen, Islamic banking has grown widely in recent years and has extended to several international financial centers, which invested in this field, reflecting an increasing interest in financial Islamic products and services. Because of this interest, some of the international markets indices such as “Dow Jones” and “FTSE” have been launching indices for Shari’ah-compliant activities since 1999. According to the latest available data, the Islamic financial institutions’ assets exceeded $ billion by end of 2009, and they are expected to exceed $ trillion by end of 2010. In addition, issuance of Islamic Sukuk has risen fourfold over the last four years, exceeding $ billion by end of 2009. Islamic banks and financial institutions account for 15 percent of the Middle East top 30 banks’ assets. There are more than 430 Islamic banks and financial institutions in more than 75 countries and about 191 conventional banks have Islamic windows.
Jaime Caruana: Basel II - back to the future Speech by Mr Jaime Caruana, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, at the 7th HKMA Distinguished Lecture, “Basel II - Back to the Future”, Hong Kong, 4 February 2005. * 1. *  *  Introduction  Let me begin by expressing my gratitude for this invitation to participate in the “Hong Kong Monetary Authority Distinguished Lecture”. I am honoured to join the list of prestigious speakers who have discussed critical issues in economics and finance in this forum, issues made especially prominent by the important role that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority plays in promoting financial stability under the leadership of Joseph Yam. From my perspective as Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, I am indebted to Mr Yam for his support and initiative in contributing to the development, and now the implementation, of the new bank capital framework, or “Basel II”. “Nothing endures but change,” wrote the ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus more than two thousand years ago. In a world where change is the only constant, success depends on the depth of our awareness of the risks and rewards on the horizon and on the quality of our preparations to respond to them appropriately. That is true not just in the banking industry, but certainly also in the formulation of public policies geared to promoting more sustainable economic growth through greater financial stability.

Since then, reform of the policy regime to increase flexibility, especially the exchange rate, has contributed importantly to greater resiliency and abilities of the economies in Asia to adjust to changes in the external environment. So, the fact that the Asian economies have done better this time is not only because of the policy response during the crisis, but also because of the policy choice that was made long time ago to increase flexibility. Let me now turn to the second part of my talk on the post-crisis environment and the challenges for emerging markets. The challenges for emerging markets in the post-crisis world will be shaped importantly by the forces of change that will emanate in the new global economic and financial environment. Some of these forces will relate to cyclical shifts in trade and financial flows in response to  2  BIS Review 36/2010  new configuration of risk and opportunities that arises. Others will represent a more fundamental change as the new structure of economic and financial relations between countries emerges to replace the old structure that had been dismantled by the crisis. Recent discussion on this issue has pointed to the new normal global growth, the rise of Asia, and the increased role of government in the economic system as the new economic realities in the post-crisis world. But amongst these three possible new changes, I think the most important that will have far-reaching implications for emerging economies will be the durability and the composition of global growth.
From the formal standpoint, the draft bill will consolidate in a kind of “Bank Code” all the regulatory provisions on the creation, activity and control of credit institutions, thus putting an end to the dispersion of legislation which has characterised the credit sector for various decades. Furthermore, the aforementioned consolidation aims to write into Spanish law the changes introduced in June 2013 by the so-called CRD-IV package, i.e. the Directive and the Regulation which incorporate the Basel III Accord into European legislation. As you know, that transposition has been partly handled by the promulgation of Royal Decree-Law 14/2013, which includes those matters considered essential for incorporation before 1 January 2014. Under the draft bill, and without prejudice to the framework resulting from the entry into force of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the Banco de España will retain its current power to authorise the exercise of banking activities. Moreover, it will receive additional powers, such as that to revoke banking licences. Regarding the regime governing the purchase of qualifying holdings in credit institutions, the Banco de España will continue to be the authority responsible for assessing the proposals of potential purchasers, although now there are plans to give it powers of supervisory intervention, senior officer replacement, suspension of voting rights or, in extreme situations, licence revocation. As bank supervisor, the Banco de España will continue overseeing compliance with organisational and disciplinary regulations.

The challenge to the banking system and businesses, but also to the Bank of Albania, still remains the public encouragement to use them. So, to put this into practice, I shall stimulate the banking system to become more active, that is banks should provide to the households and businesses clear and ready products, quick and efficient services. Given the latest developments in the banking system and the increasing number of the branches as well as the increasing banking services, I advocate the banking system will be more attractive in 2005. I consider the optimistic signals of the previous year will be followed by more vigorous operations of the banking system related to the business of electronic card payments. In this spirit I would say that banking system solutions properly consist in issuing a unified card. Evidently, steps to be taken in this direction will be more complex, and naturally some of them imply inter-institutional cooperation. Bank of Albania is already paving the way toward wider use of cards in Albania. Credit cards service shall not only contribute to cash reduction in the economy, but also provide a positive impact on the reduction of informal economy. However, I deem as important encouraging and  BIS Review 6/2005  1  stimulating the banking system in order the service level be uniformly present all over the Albanian territory where banks conduct their activity.