samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
When interest rates and capital flow allow it, the króna appreciates, whether people like it or not. When there is a credibility loss in the market, either in Iceland or abroad, the króna will depreciate suddenly and sharply, and when there are tremors and rumblings in the economy, domestic or foreign, the  BIS Review 131/2007  1  exchange rate tends to resemble a Meteorological Office seismograph. In short, the króna functions just like any other currency, and if it did not react in this way to these conditions, we should complain loudly indeed. Globalisation has made a massive impact on all markets and all currencies, and there is little doubt that, until now, it has lightened the load borne by central banks and central bankers in the battle against inflation. This could well change in the future, so that central banks will not have it as easy as they have recently. Peoples and nations that have hitherto been isolated from the principles governing most Western nations have been entering the world of international business in the past few decades. At first that entry was slow, careful, and even ponderous, but it has gained pace and become bolder year by year. The new entrants are China and India, either of which is larger in terms of population than the US and the EU combined.

It is often said, even by supposedly responsible people, that the tools used by central banks all over the world to combat inflation will not work here in Iceland, not least because of the way globalisation treats small currencies like the króna, and because of how many investors, through the shelter afforded by globalisation, have the means to avoid the Central Bank’s thumbscrews. The cannons on Iceland’s coast guard cruisers were no weapons of mass destruction, and the difference in size between Thór and Aegir, on the one hand, and the British navy, on the other, was horrific, but we managed nonetheless. Of course, a reference to the Cod Wars is merely a metaphorical one, and I use it more or less in jest, as it doesn’t fully apply to the current situation. But the comparison between the Central Bank of Iceland’s tools and those of other central banks, which enjoy the relative security of a large currency, is worth examining. In the past few months, though, large currencies have not been protected from tremors, shocks, and even wide fluctuation. For example, the euro has appreciated by more than 70% from its weakest point against the US dollar, an enormous change in a relatively short period of time. The Icelandic króna has not been nearly so volatile despite all of the shocks it has had to tolerate. A volatile króna in a turbulent season tends to indicate that the króna is effective as a currency, and not the reverse.
On the demand side, the below-potential growth of the Albanian economy continued to keep spare capacities in output factors – labour and capital – materialising in downward pressures on wages, output costs and inflation. Economic agents’ expectations remain anchored around the Bank of Albania’s target, owing to its reliable monetary policy, as well. Anchored  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  expectations in the economy have reduced the so-called second-round effects, in other words, transmission of temporary shocks from higher primary commodity prices in global markets and output costs and higher consumer prices at home. They have provided higher flexibility for the Bank of Albania to pursue its stimulating monetary policy. Overall, these tendencies are expected to continue in the period ahead. Reduction of inflationary pressures in 2011 and expectations for low inflation rates during 2012, motivated further easing of the monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2011. The Bank of Albania cut the key interest rate twice, namely in September and November, down to the historic low 4.75%. The Bank of Albania holds that the monetary stimulus increase will provide suitable financial conditions for compliance with its medium-term inflation target. Furthermore, eased monetary conditions serve to boost domestic demand, which remains fragile in the presence of higher uncertainties in the economy. In addition, it factorizes prudent fiscal policy for 2012 and expected curbing of public spending contribution to economic growth.

The credibility of money is underpinned by this two-tier monetary structure where commercial banks create money and central banks preserve its value. Three new developments have emerged over the past decade that fundamentally challenge this 1/8  BIS central bankers' speeches  two-tier monetary structure: cryptocurrencies; stablecoins; currencies. and central bank digital  Cryptocurrencies A cryptocurrency is a digital token issued and managed within a decentralised protocol, such as a distributed ledger or blockchain. It represents an asset in digital form that can be transferred or traded on the protocol. The word “crypto” comes from the Greek word kryptos – which means “secret”. Indeed, the anonymity of crypto tokens has unfortunately made them well suited for facilitating illicit transactions, including money laundering. Cryptocurrencies have also helped to fuel ransomware – one of the fastest growing crimes in cyberspace. Are cryptocurrencies money? So far, the answer must be no. Cryptocurrencies have performed poorly as a medium of exchange, a store of value, or a unit of account. MAS prefers to call them by their more accurate technical name: crypto tokens. We define tokens that are used for payments purposes as digital payment tokens, and entities which provide services related to such tokens in Singapore are subject to licensing and supervision by MAS, primarily for money laundering and terrorism financing risks. MAS frowns on cryptocurrencies or tokens as an investment asset for retail investors. The prices of crypto tokens are not anchored on any economic fundamentals and are subject to sharp speculative swings.
These are vast resources which can be harnessed to finance future growth. Strategic stability within the region Politically, I expect the strategic environment in Asia to be stable. On a bilateral level, the key relationships which underpin the region’s stability – US-China, US-India, China-Japan and China-India – are sound. The major players will compete and cooperate over a range of issues. There will be occasional tensions over trade, history and territorial disputes but these will be managed as the major players want stability and growth, not conflict and instability. They have also taken steps to strengthen their relations. Although slow, progress is being made to resolve the crisis over North Korea’s nuclear programme. Tensions may arise in cross-strait relations should Taiwanese politicians play the independence card as Taiwan heads for elections in 2008. But so long as the US maintains its clear stand that it will not support Taiwan’s independence, the situation will not get out of hand. BIS Review 76/2007  1  I do not expect major military conflicts to break out in Asia. All countries in Asia understand that any such conflict would set themselves and the region back. This will detract from everyone’s focus on economic growth and building cross-national and cross-regional ties. There is strong optimism that Asia can make it in this century and strong determination to succeed. I therefore expect a stable strategic environment to provide the backdrop for the region to grow.

Also, our ability to adapt quickly to the changing environment and our resilience in overcoming shocks and crises such as the Asian Financial Crisis and SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome). We will continue our efforts to make Singapore one of the world’s most vibrant and liveable cities – a unique city which is Asian and cosmopolitan at the same time. We will preserve our greenery and environment. We are building Integrated Resorts with casinos, hosting the Formula One grand prix from next year onward, attracting some of the world’s best golfers to take part in the Singapore Open, bringing in world-class entertainment acts and events and jazzing up our nightlife. This will ensure that Singapore remains an attractive city where talented people want to come to work, live, have fun and feel safe and at home. Conclusion Let me conclude. Governments in Asia are deepening economic integration and political cooperation. This will create the conditions and framework for the private sector to grow and for you to take advantage of the full array of opportunities. I hope you now have a mental road-map of where Asia is heading. I wish you a safe and fruitful journey ahead. Thank you. BIS Review 76/2007  5
As a result of our strategy to increase reserves, which is applied in this framework, the amount of our reserves reached USD 60 billion as of May 26, 2006. Secondly, the Central Bank conducts interventions due to volatility. Taking into account the factors that cause volatility in either direction or potential developments, the Central Bank may intervene directly in the market or use announcements and warnings. These implementations do not have a mechanical nature. As the conditions of each intervention differ from each other, neither do they have a symmetrical nature. At this point, I would like to share my views about the activity observed in the value of the Turkish Lira lately. The international liquidity conditions, which change according to the monetary policies pursued by the central banks of developed countries, and the perceptions of uncertainty that emerged due to internal and external developments, had considerable effect on the exchange rate movements that have been observed almost for a month. In the short term, this activity is perceived to be more negative than the information it contains. However, there is no deterioration in the macroeconomic fundamentals. There is no change in the program projections and targets. The movement of the exchange rate is mainly caused by external developments. Similar movements are observed in other developing countries, as well. 4  BIS Review 68/2006  Today, the floating exchange rate regime performs its shock-absorbing function. We have observed similar developments in the past five years, as well.

Gent Sejko: Fifth review of the arrangement with the IMF concluded Speech by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the joint press conference with the IMF mission, Albanian MoF (Ministry of Finance) and MEDTTE (the Albanian Ministry of Economic Development, Tourism, Trade, and Entrepreneurship), Tirana, 30 June 2015. *  *  *  Dear media representatives, In line with the already established practice, in the past two weeks, we have constantly met and exchanged views and opinions with International Monetary Fund representatives. As always, these meetings serve to make a comprehensive analysis of economic and financial developments, with a view to identifying the necessary measures for a steady development. Following, I will present a summary of Bank of Albania’s opinion. The Albanian economy is on a positive development trajectory, irrespective of the shocks we have been facing in the first half of the year. Economic and financial balances in Albania are sound. The Banking system is liquid and well capitalised; Albania’s public debt is in control; and, the financial situation of Albanian businesses and households is improving. Long-term development resources for the country remain stable. This situation is an outcome of economic policies oriented towards stability, which we have undertaken. In view of the latest developments in Greece, I would like to emphasize that the external environment appears challenging, but Albania’s economy and financial system are capable to withstand even extreme shocks.
Discussions within the European Payments Council (EPC), the European self-regulatory body for retail payments, started as far back as 2002. Acting as a catalyst for change and supporting the work of the European Commission and the industry, the Eurosystem has helped to successfully remove all remaining obstacles for the launch of SDD in November 2009. BIS Review 151/2009  1  The SEPA project has made a lot of progress after clarity was provided on the Multilateral Interchange Fees. In particular, in March 2009, a Joint Statement of the European Commission and the Eurosystem has outlined the way forward on the future SDD business model.1 This was instrumental to a new Regulation which offers an interim arrangement for cross-border and domestic SDD interchange fees and, hence, was crucial for the EPC to conclude its work on the SDD.2 This new Regulation on cross-border payments also requires that all euro area banks that currently offer euro direct debits at national level must also be reachable for cross-border euro direct debits by 1 November 2010.3 By guaranteeing the reachability, we hope that this will provide a strong impetus to the market take-up of the SDD. The second achievement in 2009 in the migration process to SEPA has been the close stakeholder involvement. Here – I think – that the EPC has made considerable efforts to involve stakeholders in the further development process of the SEPA payment schemes.

But if activity were rather to show signs of freshening, there is a risk of the existing high inflation continuing and being incorporated in our  2  BIS Review 15/2002  perceptions of inflation in the longer run, with possible effects on, for example, future wage negotiations. That of course must not happen. A scrutiny of the current cyclical picture reveals a growing number of signs that activity abroad, above all in the United States, is on the way to improving. This is something that also affects conditions for the Swedish economy. A majority of leading indicators point in that direction. Although the upward phase does contain risks to which I shall be returning, there is still a good deal of evidence that a recovery in the rest of the world as well as in Sweden may be on the way to materialising later this year. A factor that often contributes to a cyclical swing is movements in stocks. When stocks are plentiful and sales are falling, firms often cut back production so that this falls more than demand. In this way, stock adjustments initially accentuate the cyclical downturn. When the reduction of stocks ultimately comes to an end, firms may step up production again even though demand has not yet started to recover. This drives a cyclical upturn and perhaps it is just such a positive effect that may be on the way. There are signs of this in the United States in particular but also in Sweden.
My colleagues and I at the New York Fed have commented previously on the essential role of good culture in a bank’s reputation, financial condition and performance, and in customer confidence and trust.12 As we have argued, “cultural capital”—through its ability to limit misconduct risk—can be an important bulwark to a firm’s financial capital.13 Culture is often viewed as a “soft” topic, but I would disagree. The financial penalties associated with misconduct are anything but soft—with bank fines since the crisis estimated at more than $ billion as of year-end 2016.14 The hit to a bank’s reputation from misconduct can also be quantified through, for example, the associated impact on its share price or funding costs. Culture should be about concrete incentives and behaviors that help achieve specific goals, implying that it should not be viewed as a “soft” issue. I have argued on several occasions that bank leaders could get a better view into their firms’ progress on conduct and culture by doing more collectively. 15 For example, major banks in the United States could participate in an industry-wide survey of their employees conducted by an independent third party, with the results anonymized to encourage respondents to be candid in their assessments. I suspect that these results would create a more accurate picture of how banks are doing, and would likely underscore how much work continues to be needed to improve bank cultures.

The unequivocal and certain conclusion based on very detailed data, studies and stress tests is that the housing market and credit granting do not at present entail any problem for financial stability. If such problems were to arise at some point in the future, Finansinspektionen has suitable instruments, in the form of regulations regarding leverage, amortisation and housing cost calculations. However, the repo rate is a very blunt and thus less suitable instrument for affecting potential risks of this sort. Consequently, there does not seem to be any reason to allow house prices and credit granting to affect the repo rate decision now. At the monetary policy meeting, a number of members of the Executive Board stated that a possible future fall in house prices may have a negative impact on consumption in the future. This would lead to a fall in aggregate demand, with negative consequences for future resource utilisation and inflation. However, if one believes this, it should also be considered in the assessment of the influence of alternative repo rate paths on the forecasts for inflation and resource utilisation, and it should only be allowed to affect monetary policy in such a case. These forecasts are mean forecasts, and some probability of a negative outcome has a negative impact on the mean. In this sense, the forecasts are “risk-adjusted”. As usual, it is necessary to filter all information through the forecasts to determine whether or not it should affect monetary policy.
Our understanding of the dynamics of the markets in which we operate – including the motivation and behavior of different market participants, linkages among financial institutions, and the microstructure of financial instruments – is therefore vital to our ability to structure and execute operations to achieve the objectives of policymakers.3 By monitoring markets and maintaining deep expertise in them, we remain vigilant to changes in the financial market landscape that might alter our assessment of our operational toolkit. On that note, I’ll now turn to significant changes in U.S. money markets in recent years and their implications for the Desk’s implementation of monetary policy. The changing landscape of U.S. money markets Prior to the financial crisis, the Desk met the FOMC’s interest rate directives primarily by controlling the supply of reserves in the banking system.4 The Desk conducted open market operations to manage a supply of reserves at a level that was expected to match the estimated quantity of reserves demanded at the FOMC’s overnight fed funds rate target. The rate prevailing in the market each day is the effective fed funds rate. In the aggregate, the system at that time was operated with a “structural deficiency”, meaning that permanent additions to the supply of reserve balances fell somewhat short of the total need, so the Desk conducted additional daily operations to add balances temporarily to get to the desired level.

Last but not least, if Switzerland were to give up its monetary independence by pegging the franc to the euro or by joining the euro area, it would lose its privileged status and, consequently, Swiss interest rates would increase to European levels. Since higher interest rates mean lower asset prices and lower levels of investment, and also higher mortgage rates, the Swiss are understandably not keen on giving up their national currency. Since any major decision in Switzerland has to be approved in a public referendum, the prospect of EU and euro membership in the near future is thus highly unlikely. Given our exposure to global economic and financial shocks, and their arguably smaller importance for the euro area, pegging the Swiss franc to the euro is not a realistic option. Flexible exchange rates give us the room for manoeuvre we need. •  What has our experience been of coexistence with the euro so far? Very positive. Rather than crowding out independent currencies, the euro has stabilised the monetary scene in Europe. In fact, the franc is less volatile today than it was before European monetary integration. The price of the euro in Swiss francs these days is about 3% lower than it was in 1999, in other words, almost unchanged. We did have periods, however, when the franc was under pressure, especially after September 11 and before the outbreak of the war in Iraq. The safe-haven function of the franc then triggered a 10% appreciation in our currency against the euro.
Bandid Nijathaworn: Developing the bond market - a central bank perspective Remarks by Mr Bandid Nijathaworn, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Asset Forum, Bangkok, 29 March 2005. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests Ladies and Gentlemen Let me first thank the Asset magazine for inviting me to give this luncheon address. It is a pleasure to be here. I also would like to congratulate the organizer for putting up today's event. The bond market in Thailand is now at an important stage of development and a function like this is certainly a positive contribution. For my brief remark today, I want to make a few points on the Thai bond market from the standpoint of the Bank of Thailand. I also want to share with you our plan for developing the bond market this year. From the Bank of Thailand's point of view, the bond market is of exceptional importance to us. This is because it is the market that we operate monetary policy through open market operations and through our operations in the repo market. Therefore, the more developed and efficient the bond market, the more effective the conduct of monetary policy would also be. Also, a vibrant domestic bond market is essential for a robust and efficient financial system. This is important for the development of the economy in the longer-term.

At this time, the Thai bond market has a strong potential to become the important third pillar of Thailand's financial structure next to the credit and the equity markets. At present, the size of the bond market in terms of market capitalization to GDP is about 50 percent. Hence, there is considerable scope for the local bond market to grow and expand. Thai bond market in 2004 Last year, the Thai bond market grew by about 9 percent in terms of the amount of bonds issued, while activities in the secondary market increased by about 12 percent. The growth reflects mostly transactions in government securities, particularly treasury bills and Bank of Thailand bonds. Last year was also an important year for bonds as it was the year that we saw a shift in the stance of monetary policy. The policy interest rate was raised three times in the second half of last year in response to increased pressure on prices and economic stability. Looking back, one has to say that the bond market adjusted very well to the shift in the monetary policy stance. Bond market interest rates responded in an orderly manner and moved in line with policy signal. This smooth adjustment reflects two important qualities that we are now seeing in the local bond market. The first is greater market liquidity which has allowed the bond market to adjust to the change in monetary policy without difficulties.