Exceptionally loose monetary policies adopted by advanced economies to eliminate the downside risks on economic activity not only boosted global liquidity but also stimulated the search for yield, which encouraged more capital flows into emerging economies. Moreover, the weak recovery in developed economies – Turkey’s main export destinations, dampened foreign demand growth (Figure 2). Low interest rates across the globe, soaring imports driven by strong credit growth amid increased short-term capital inflows, and weaker foreign demand caused the current account deficit to widen rapidly in 2010. All of these developments prompted the CBRT to adopt a strategy, which partly targets financial stability besides the main objective of price stability, parallel to the conditions referred to as the “new normal”. In this context, as stated previously, the CBRT has actively begun to use tools such as required reserves and liquidity management, in addition to the one-week repo auction rate, the main policy instrument. 1. Inflation developments  Having summarized the global economic conditions and the implications of this outlook on the monetary policy, I would now like to inform you about the inflation developments of the last quarter. As you will recall, we underlined in the October 2010 Inflation Report that the increases in unprocessed food and tobacco prices – which are beyond the immediate control of the CBRT – added about 5 percentage points to annual inflation, and suggested that these items would leave sizable room for disinflation. Indeed, inflation dropped by 2.83 percentage points, yielding a rate of 6.4 percent, meeting the year-end inflation target.

The European panel's responses are presented at https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/ukraine/ and the American at https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/ukraine-2/. The results are summarised by Vaitilingam (2022). 10 [14]  For a monetary policy decision-maker, supply shocks are more difficult to deal with than demand shocks. If inflation rises because demand has risen unexpectedly, the remedy is simple: The central bank raises the policy rate and thus suppresses both inflation and demand, thereby reducing the risk of the economy overheating. But if inflation rises as a result of a negative supply shock, the problem is more complex. If most people assume that the effect on inflation is transitory, the problem does not need to be so great. The central bank can then simply wait until inflation falls back again. However, one risk that is always present is that price impulses spread to other prices and start to affect economic agents’ expectations. These may then expect inflation to remain high, or even rise further. The signs of such second-round effects have now begun to increase in many economies. This creates a tricky balancing act for monetary policy: At the same time as one wants to maintain confidence in the inflation target and prevent inflation from becoming entrenched at a high level, one wants to avoid pursuing a policy so tight that the economy enters a recession. As we saw, this was what happened after the First World War, although the motive then was to return to the previous price level rather than bring down inflation.