samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
That strategy, however, did not include a solution to the problem of the old banks. The split between the old and new banks was only finalised towards the end of 2010, and in any case, the old banks were largely exempted from the controls until March 2012. The current strategy is based on a guiding principle and a set of criteria that any proposed solutions would have to fulfil. If I explain these to you now, you will better understand what we have done to date and what is forthcoming. An overall guiding principle in the design of the liberalisation strategy was that it should entail comprehensive, cautious, and clearly communicated solutions, allowing the country to lift capital controls without undue risks to macroeconomic and financial stability. The strategy is comprehensive in the sense of mitigating, in a sufficient manner, the risk that excessive capital outflows would overburden Iceland’s small foreign exchange market and inflict systemic negative externalities on the general public. In particular, it involved reducing the size of capital outflows associated with the resolution of the failed banks’ estates through composition agreements based on explicit stability conditions, with a Pigouvian tax as a necessary backstop mechanism. The strategy is cautious in the sense that liberalisation is planned, timed, and sequenced so that the largest challenges are solved sequentially, in a manner that mitigates the risk of disorderly dynamics in the foreign exchange market.

This shows the results of a simulation of a hypothetical financial network of firms. These have differing levels of financial strength, measured on the x-axis. Think of this as a country’s level of official reserves or a bank’s level of liquid assets. On the z-axis is a measure of network interconnectivity – the scale of cross-border assets or interbank exposures. Finally, on the y-axis is a measure of systemic risk – the incidence of default across the network, whether of countries or banks. As the network becomes better integrated, for a given degree of financial strength, systemic risk remains low. We operate in a zone of systemic stability. That is because the network is operating as a shock-absorber, a network insurance device scattering risk to the four corners. So it was pre-crisis. But for a large-enough shock to financial strength, the system fundamentally changes shape. The network flips to a zone of systemic instability. That is because it is now operating as a shock-transmitter, a network incendiary device – and the greater the degree of integration, the sharper this knife-edge. So it was during the crisis. This is the robust-yet-fragile property of connected webs. The global financial crisis provided no better example. The flat earth that was the Great Moderation gave way to the fragile planet that was the Great Recession. Risk-sharing gave way to risk spreading, risk distribution to risk contagion. This was by no means an isolated incident.
For instance, the mortgage survey recently published by Finansinspektionen identifies one such weakness: approximately half of all new mortgages are interest-only loans.2 This increases the scope for the households to take larger loans, which in turn increases the debt stock. Figure 1 shows household debt in relation to disposable income. It also illustrates how indebtedness in the household sector grows under different assumptions about amortisation. This raises a number of questions about the future. For example, how will the average loanto-value ratio in the banks' mortgage stocks develop when older mortgages are paid off and new interest-only mortgages are paid out? What will the long-term consequences of a weak or non-existent amortisation culture be for peoples' private finances, the national economy and expectations of economic policy? These are questions that we are considering and that we will analyse further together with Finansinspektionen. Figure 1 Household debt under different assumptions regarding amortisation behaviour Percentage of disposable income  Note. The figure presents a simple illustrative calculation of how indebtedness may develop given different assumptions about the households’ amortisation behaviour in the future. The figure should not be interpreted as the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. The banks’ extensive market funding in foreign currencies makes the system vulnerable Another structural weakness in the Swedish banking system is that the degree of market funding is high. We can see this, for example, by looking at lending in relation to deposits.

As you all know, Hong Kong has one of the most developed and healthiest mortgage markets in the region with a delinquency ratio reported at only 0.04% in October 2009 2. Hong Kong’s leadership in advancing innovations in sound mortgage risk  1  IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2009. 2  HKMA Monthly Statistical Bulletin. 2  BIS Review 3/2010  management practices over the years, including through the role of the Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation (HKMC), provides many useful parallels and lessons that can be drawn for Malaysia. Cagamas is very pleased to have established a strategic partnership with HKMC in 2007 which will allow us to avail of HKMC’s significant expertise to provide the banking industry in Malaysia with expanded options for effectively managing mortgage risks. We are encouraged by the strong turnout from among members of the board risk management committees, senior management and risk managers at this event today. Your roles are critical in bringing visibility and attention to the key risk issues in mortgage financing within your institutions in order to ensure that the associated risks, both present and foreseeable, are identified and effectively controlled. It is particularly useful to bear in mind that vigilance is needed to be alert to problems that can quickly arise in business segments that may not have presented difficulties in the past. By acting proactively to avoid controllable risks, material future losses can be avoided at far lower costs to banks and the society at large.
Mark Carney: The New Fiver Opening remarks by Mr Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, at the £ note launch, Blenheim Palace, Oxfordshire, 2 June 2016. *  *  *  I would like to express my gratitude to his grace, the Duke of Marlborough, for his generosity in hosting this historic event at one of the nation’s greatest architectural treasures. On September 3rd 1939, with The Gathering Storm about to break, a new First Lord of the Admiralty was appointed. He was so familiar to the Navy that the signal to the Fleet said simply: “Winston is Back.” In the years that followed, Britain’s resolve, tenacity and spirit would all be tested. The nation proved more than equal to the task. Britain stood steadfast through its Finest Hour. In North Africa, Asia and the Balkans, the United Kingdom helped turn the Hinge of Fate. It would forge The Grand Alliance to liberate Europe from tyranny, and then with victory, set the vision for the reconstruction of the postwar era. The “bulldog spirit” of those years was embodied and emboldened by Winston Churchill. This spirit is just one of his many contributions that the Bank commemorates with The New Fiver. Churchill was not just a martial leader – though he was an exceptional one – he was also one of the greatest statesmen of all time. Blenheim Great statesmen know their history, and Churchill knew more than most.

Scope of monetary policy and acting within the ECB’s mandate I will now come to the first of two points to which the rapporteur has requested we pay particular attention: the “scope of monetary policy”. This includes the question of whether we are acting within our mandate. Our mandate is clearly formulated in Article 127 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union: to maintain price stability. According to primary EU law, the ECB and the national central banks of the Eurosystem are already permitted to purchase government bonds in the financial markets in the context of their monetary policy tasks (Article 18.1 of the Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the European Central Bank). While the Treaty clearly states the objective the ECB has to pursue, it describes just as clearly what the ECB is not allowed to do. Article 123 of the Treaty prohibits monetary financing. In particular, we are not allowed to buy any government bonds directly, i.e. on the primary market. Government bonds can only be purchased if they are already on the market and traded freely. The market mechanism – the basic principle Member States have to follow to finance themselves independently – should apply. We therefore also interpret the prohibition of monetary financing as being comprehensive insofar as ways to circumvent it are addressed. It is not possible to purchase newly issued government bonds at certain times.
It is not something exceptional for the countries implementing inflation-targeting regime to experience significant deviations from the inflation target. What matters most here is to be able to explain the reasons for the deviation, to take necessary measures to ensure that the target could be attained again and to inform the public of the convergence period. If the Central Bank had changed its inflation target for end-2006 as 10 percent, it would have achieved the end-year target and would not have been liable to be called to account to the public. However, instead of changing the target, the Central Bank preferred to render account to foster its communication policy. Within this framework, the Central Bank will inform the Government through a new open letter in January 2007 and explain the reasons for overshooting the end-year inflation target, in addition to sharing its projections pertaining to the convergence process with the public. In conclusion, the Central Bank considers that frequent changes in targets are likely to have adverse effects on inflation expectations and pricing behaviors, which could damage the credibility of the future commitments. For this reason, it is important in the upcoming period that targets should be left intact as long as inflation is expected to converge to targets within a reasonable period of time. 2  BIS Review 1/2007  Transmission mechanism and control horizon Central banks in both developed and developing countries experience serious uncertainties regarding the lagged effects of monetary policy on inflation.

(ii)  On 13 June 2006 and 23 June 2006, the Central Bank decided to directly intervene in the market by selling foreign currency in order to prevent the excessive volatility observed in line with the liquidity shortage in the foreign currency market due to global liquidity conditions. Total amounts sold were USD 0.5 billion and USD 0.8 billion, respectively. (iii)  In the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on the 25th of June 2006 following the aforementioned interventions, it was stated that the liquidity shortage in the foreign currency market continued and once again underlined that an effective foreign currency market was a prerequisite for the price stability target. Thus, in order to provide foreign currency supply via its instruments and mechanisms, the Central Bank directly intervened in the market by selling an amount of USD 0.9 billion foreign currency on the 26th of June 2006. In addition to this intervention, two more FX selling auctions were held on the 26th and 27th of June 2006, in which a total amount of USD 1 billion foreign currency was sold. Following the measures taken by the Central Bank against the volatility in financial markets in May and June 2006 and improved global liquidity conditions, the foreign exchange market has become relatively stable. For this reason, the Central Bank has decided to resume the foreign exchange buying auctions, which were suspended on the 16th of May 2006, as of the 10th of November 2006.
It may reshape the mechanisms for making secured payments: instead of settlement occurring across the books of a single central authority (such as a central bank, clearing house or custodian), strong cryptographic and verification algorithms allow everyone in a DLT network to have a copy of the ledger, and give distributed authority for managing and updating that ledger to a much wider group of agents. The Bank is undertaking work to understand the implications of new digital or e-monies and new methods of payments and financial intermediation as part of the One Bank Research initiative 6. Machine learning also promises to transform financial services and widen the potential players in payments. Banks will increasingly be able to automate interaction with customers. As ever more data is analysed and algorithms that “learn” replace rules-based programming, a number of areas such as credit assessment, risk management, fraud detection and product personalisation will increasingly rely on technology. Many banks are already embracing these changes, but many non-bank players with ready-made access to a wide range of customers and their data are well positioned to compete. Alongside the potential opportunities offered by changes in technology, there are also potential risks. For example, the demand for real-time retail payments can make it harder to implement effective defences against money laundering, terrorist financing, identity theft or other forms of fraud. More connected, IT-intensive networks provide more channels for cyber attackers to target and greater risks of contagion.

Gent Sejko: The importance of media in analysing Albania’s monetary policy Address by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the end-of-year meeting with the media, Tirana, 20 December 2018. * * * Dear ladies and gentlemen, Welcome to our end-of-year meeting with the media. I would like to thank you for your readiness, objectivity, and seriousness in covering the activities of the Bank of Albania and informing the public about them, throughout 2018. Thanks to you, our analyses and decision-making have been communicated in a thorough manner, mindfully tailored and styled in accordance with the age and profession of the targeted audience. I must note that, in addition to broad geographic coverage, your comments and analyses on the economic and financial developments in Albania have been very professional. At the Bank of Albania, my colleagues and I maintain that the current media reality is an important part of our activity. Our decision-making could not be considered complete without your contribution. Communication is a vital and delicate process for a central bank. I must emphasize that, without your help and objectivity, realisation of Bank of Albania’s decision-making regarding monetary policy and financial stability would have been an impossible mission. Figuratively, I would point out that you are the ones that enable the translation of our analyses and conclusions into an adequate and easy-to-understand message for the general public.
The sustainable fulfilment of the convergence criteria before introducing the euro is in the interest of the countries concerned and of the euro area as a whole. Countries should not introduce the euro without having first achieved the necessary economic convergence. A high degree of sustainable economic convergence is required, so that they can be integrated smoothly into the euro area. The convergence criteria are thus an important part of the stability-oriented set of rules of Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union. The ECB and the European Commission report regularly on the extent to which EU Member States outside the euro area are meeting the criteria. They serve to maintain the credibility and functioning of Economic and Monetary Union. Conclusion Ladies and gentlemen, When we look back over the first ten years of the euro, then we can do this with satisfaction. The sceptical forecasts before its birth have not materialised. The euro is a historic achievement. Its first ten years have been a success. This is also seen, noticeably so, from outside our continent. Europe can be very proud of what it has achieved. The euro has brought many benefits but as I already said, this is no the time for complacency. We have many challenges to cope with in the years to come. Some are shared with the other important central banks in the world, like responding to the present economic and financial global situation and drawing all the lessons from the present turmoil.

Flexible job markets are important particularly in a monetary union. Exchange rate adjustments are not possible in response to economic developments and changes in competitiveness. Therefore, wage policy in the individual countries bears a special responsibility. It largely determines labour costs and thus a country’s competitiveness. It must take into account productivity, the employment situation and the competitiveness of the respective country. The relative cost competitiveness of the various economies in the euro area has to be monitored very closely. The present situation should be a catalyst, pushing further forward structural reforms in the euro countries. The EU’s Lisbon strategy – which aims to make Europe’s economy more dynamic and competitive – and the completion of the internal market, for example in the services sector, are very important items on the European agenda which should not be forgotten in the present circumstances. Enlargement of the euro area Many of the challenges confronting the ECB are shared with other central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve System, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. These include overcoming the financial market disruption and the economic downturn. Over the longer term, there is globalisation, with the rise of emerging market economies such as China and India, the rapid advances in science and technology and the ageing of our population. All these phenomena affect the economic environment in which central banks conduct monetary policy.
A recovery is expected towards the end of the year, albeit a tentative one, given that the deterioration in the employment outlook, the erosion of purchasing power and the fall in property prices look set to weigh on consumer sentiment and income. Europe represents the second pole in the global economy. Although the continent enjoyed strong growth during the first quarter of 2008, the remainder of the year should see a slowdown. A number of factors will contribute to this loss of momentum. First, the strong euro and the sharp downturn in the US economy are dampening exports. The sub-prime crisis has led to a tightening of credit conditions, while consumer confidence has deteriorated. This will have a knock-on effect on consumer spending. However, the slowdown in Europe will be much less pronounced than in the US, although the subsequent pick-up in economic activity will also probably be gradual. BIS Review 80/2008  1  The Asian economies, which constitute the third major hub, continue to exhibit strong growth as a whole, since they remain virtually unaffected by the slowdown in the US economy. Nevertheless, they have been hit by rising commodity and food prices, which are seriously reducing incomes. Regional variations aside, it would therefore be reasonable to conclude that the global economy, as a whole, is not witnessing a significant slowdown at present – as opposed to one of the rather more alarming scenarios that were only recently being mooted.

The increase is primarily due to the rise in oil prices combined with continued robust economic activity. However, the forecast shows that the expected slowdown in the economy, the fall in capacity utilisation rates and a baseline effect as regards energy prices will all contribute to a decline in inflation, which should thus, in the medium term, arrive at a level that is fully compatible with price stability. Observed inflation June 2008 2005 Q1  Inflation  4  2006 Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1  2007 Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1  2008 Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1  Q2  Q3  Q4  1.35 1.06 1.18 1.10 1.23 1.33 1.22 0.46 0.09 0.52 0.63 1.68 2.50  BIS Review 80/2008  Inflation forecast of March 2008 with Libor at 2.75% and of June 2008 with Libor at 2.75% 2008 Q1  Forecast March 2008, Libor at 2.75% Forecast June 2008, Libor at 2.75%  BIS Review 80/2008  2009 Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1  2010 Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1  2011 Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1  Q2  Q3  Q4  2.41 2.07 2.01 1.53 1.37 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.47  2.75 2.91 2.65 2.12 1.76 1.50 1.40 1.36 1.34 1.31 1.31 1.30  5
If the shift continues, the price-dampening effects of increased imports from low-cost countries in Asia and Central and Eastern Europe will persist longer than assumed. The change in China’s exchange rate regime and the revaluation of the Chinese currency will probably not cause noticeable changes in price developments for imported consumer goods. Partly due to very high growth in demand for oil, the average price of Brent Blend rose to almost USD- 40 per barrel in 2004. Strong economic growth, particularly in the US and China, has resulted in high energy consumption. In the first half of this year, the price of Brent Blend has generally fluctuated between USD 45 and USD 55 per barrel. Oil prices have risen further this summer and have been more than USD 60 per barrel in August. Prices for oil futures have also increased. Rising or persistently high oil prices may gradually dampen growth among our most important trading partners. The slowdown may occur gradually, and will not necessarily be particularly pronounced. As long as oil prices remain high and there is robust growth in other parts of the world, as in China, other commodity prices and shipping activity will remain buoyant. Activity may then remain high in key sectors of the Norwegian economy, such as petroleum-related industries and the shipbuilding industry. At the same time, higher oil prices and lower external interest rates may, other things being equal, lead to an appreciation of the Norwegian krone, which will contribute to keeping domestic inflation low.

You've already come a long way in the West Midlands. You have weathered the international storm in your more traditional industries far better than might have been expected, and you have been relatively successful in diversifying into higher value-added and more knowledge-based industries. I wish I could claim that life will get easier looking forward to 2020 - but I can't promise that and you wouldn't believe me anyway! But what I do say is that working together, with your “can-do” attitude, you are as well placed as anywhere to overcome the challenges ahead - and I wish you all possible success. 4  BIS Review 53/2002