samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Nowhere are these trends more striking than in the market for CEOs in a particular high profile, high finance industry – the football industry. As high frequency traders are to the financial sector, football clubs are to the corporate sector. In the English Football League, the average tenure of departing football club managers has close to halved since 1993. 41 Today, it stands at less than 1 ½ years, a managerial half-life of less than a full football season. Put differently, there are 92 English football league clubs. Among that 92, only two managers – Sir Alex Ferguson at Manchester United and Arsene Wenger at Arsenal – have been in post significantly longer than the average departing CEO in non-football companies. Since 1993, these two clubs have between them won the Premier league on three-quarters of occasions. Patience has brought its own reward. 38  For example, Campbell and Shiller (1988). 39  For example, Black and Fraser (2002), Cuthbertson et al (1997). 40  Karlsson et al (2008) and Favaro et al (2010). 41  League Managers Association (2010). 12  BIS Review 114/2010  Patience and public policy This evidence is no more than illustrative. But it does point to the potentially adverse sideeffects of improved information and liquidity in markets. The public good of information and liquidity may unleash the public bad of myopia and volatility. So what are the potential public policy implications? These include: (a)  Countries, like China, embarking on financial liberalisation need to walk a fine line.

16 And correspondingly, the value of the bonds falls by SEK 15 billion if interest rates instead rise. Such changes in value immediately affect the Riksbank’s dividend-qualifying profit, but the impact on the dividends delivered by the Riksbank to the government is dampened by the fact that the dividend is calculated as 80 per cent of the average dividend-qualifying profit over the last five years. Lower borrowing costs for the government The bond purchases affect government finances in ways other than via dividends from the Riksbank. They are supposed to push down interest rates in order to push up inflation. If this works, it reduces the government’s costs for both its outstanding debt and new borrowing. This is because lower interest rates reduce the nominal cost of the government’s new borrowing, while inflation reduces the real cost of both the outstanding debt and new borrowing when the policy rate is restricted by its effective lower bound. It is difficult to determine what effect the Riksbank’s monetary policy has had on interest rates and the development of inflation, and it is of course even more difficult to say how much the bond purchases have contributed to this development. Nevertheless, I would like to try to calculate how monetary policy may have affected the costs of government borrowing. Due to the high level of uncertainty, these calculations should mostly be seen as providing a ball-park figure.
The Bank Support Authority hired experts on valuation of various types of assets to ensure that the banks did not over- or underestimate the value of their assets with the aim to motivate requirements for more support. In addition, the rules on when to identify a loan as a non-performing loan and how much to write-off were made stricter and with less room for the banks’ own judgement. 5. The Swedish government did not take any specific measures to rescue or reconstruct the non-financial companies, neither did it instruct the banks on how to use the support they had received. All support was provided via the banks and the state-owned asset management corporations, leaving them to negotiate the best terms for themselves and their non-financial customers. There was a wave of bankruptcies and restructuring of non-financial companies, primarily in the domestic sector due to weak domestic demand. 6. The extensive use of Asset Management Corporations (AMCs) in Sweden has become well known abroad. AMCs had, in fact, been established in other countries before the Swedish crisis, so this was nothing new. The special feature in our case is the emphasis on splitting an ailing bank into a good bank and a “bad part” and transferring the bad assets to the AMC at carefully assessed market values. Once in the AMC, the assets are regrouped and improved in order to become attractive to potential buyers. As soon as a reasonable price can be obtained, the asset was sold.

That party was also allowed to appoint Board members of the Bank Support Authority so that it could be continuously informed and influence decisions. That was important both for political legitimacy at home and for credibility abroad - investors could be sure that the system we had created would be upheld even if there were a change in government. Let me end on a positive note. Economically, the crisis in Korea and in many of the other Asian countries should be manageable although it will probably take time before the results are clearly visible. Korea is in far better shape than many other countries, including my own in the early 1990s, given the high rates of potential growth and that the fiscal balances are in reasonable shape. However, what actually happens will depend on how the crisis is managed. That is now precisely the question. BIS Review 65/1998
Since at th  least the middle of the 19 century, the Bank of England has become one of the key institutional safeguards against recession risk and financial crisis. 41  Indeed, today, those roles are defined in statute. Non-state institutions have also played an important role in protecting those facing the adverse side-effects of economic change. This included many religious, philanthropic and charitable organisations and citizen th  movements that emerged from the 18 century onwards, often as a direct response to hardship brought about by technological change. These institutions offered, and many continue to offer, a combination of financial, housing, training and emotional support to those in need. 39  Clark (2009). Figures refer to government command of output as a percentage of GNP in England. Other 19th century legal changes that supported individuals from adverse side-effects of economic change included recognition of limited liability companies and constraints on the ability of courts to sentence debtors to prison. 41 Anson et al (2017), for example, discuss the emergence of the Bank of England as lender of last resort. 40  11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  11  To mention one, the Young Men’s Christian Association (YMCA) was founded in 1844, at around the time of Engels’ pause. It was established explicitly to meet the housing and social needs of young men who had moved from rural towns and villages to find work in factories in the cities.

Secondly, is having the ability to articulate this vision with others in the organisation and also with those that will be affected by the actions taken by the organisation. This is to ensure that the energies of the workforce will be channelled to achieving the strategic results required. Very often, the shared vision with those that are affected by the actions of the organisation also allows for the combined efforts to be mutually reinforcing. Thirdly, and importantly is knowing and understanding the business and the key elements that drive the organisation. Knowing how the system works and how the objectives might be realised. This involves having the knowledge, the skills, the information, the methodologies and the organisational structures needed to deliver the results. This is important so that the ideas can be translated into results. Fourth, given the nature of the business of the public sector and the diverse stakeholders involved, leadership in the sector requires coordination and integration skills that is able to pull together diverse thinking and diverse information and the ability to integrate the different perspectives into a solution that produces the desired outcomes. This will also involve coordination skills required to bring together not only the different parts of the organisation but also other organisations in the public sector that can contribute to achieving the desired results. Fifth, it involves managing trade-offs. Frequently, actions that need to be taken involve different implications on different target groups. This may involve interests that are conflicting.
Five of us are drawn from the executive of the Bank, increasing to six when microprudential supervision of banks and insurers moves across in  5  Hyun Shin has set this out with great clarity. 6  See Tucker, Comments at Clare College, discussion of Lord Turner’s Lecture, “Reforming finance: are we being radical enough?”, Cambridge, February 2011. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  2012/13. The two senior officials of the UK’s existing regulator, the Financial Services Authority, are members during the interim period. And once the legislation has passed, the chief executive of the planned new securities/consumer regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, will be a member, reflecting, as I have outlined, the vital role of market regulation in preserving stability. There are four external members, including from the USA Don Kohn, the former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. The Government expects the legislative process to be complete towards the end of 2012. In the meantime, during the interim, non-statutory phase of our existence, the Financial Policy Committee has two broad functions: “paving” and “shadowing”. We will pave the way for the statutory incarnation of the Committee by advising the government on the instruments and powers we could be given by Parliament. And, secondly, we will as far as possible shadow the role of the statutory FPC, which essentially means advising the FSA on where and how it should use its regulatory tools for system-wide ends. So what are those ends? They are consistent with my earlier overview of financial stability.

I am pleased to note that many Malaysian companies have already established their presence in the global construction industry with commendable achievements. The number of overseas projects awarded to Malaysian contractors has increased by 43% to 40 in 2008 valued at RM8.5 billion, from just 28 projects valued at RM2.9 billion in 2004. In 2008, the Middle East region being the major end-users of the projects undertaken by Malaysian contractors, accounted for nearly RM6 billion or 68% of the total value of the projects comprising various sectors including energy and transportation. Indeed, the achievement  BIS Review 7/2010  1  signifies that our local contractors do have competitive advantage to reap the vast opportunities in the global market. In complementing the efforts of local contractors to strengthen their international presence, relevant authorities and institutions should be continued to enhance and improve the enabling environment. In this regard, I am pleased to note that the CIDB has effectively played a key role in promoting the capabilities and strength of Malaysian contractors to the relevant parties in the global market. Apart from having well established companies with excellent track record to undertake infrastructure projects, the other critical component in ensuring the success of infrastructure development is the availability and accessibility to financing. Bank Negara Malaysia has always accorded and will continue to accord high priority to ensure that financing continues to be available to support the needs of the economy.
An increasingly tight labour market has led to rising wage growth. Last year’s wage settlements resulted in nominal wage growth of 6 per cent in 1998. Evidence suggests that wages in Norway rose by more than 71/2 per cent between the fourth quarter of 1997 and the fourth quarter of 1998. In the local government sector, wage growth is set to top 9 per cent at the end of the year. As pay increases became effective late in the year, the wage carry-over into 1999 (3-31/2 per cent) will be substantial. Assuming normal wage drift - roughly 1-11/2 per cent - and moderate negotiated pay increases, wage growth may easily near 6 per cent this year. Even if no negotiated pay increases are awarded, wage growth is not likely to be lower than 41/2-5 per cent in 1999 as a result of the substantial wage carry-over. The wide wage growth differential against other countries will continue. Wage growth in the euro area was about 1.7 per cent last year, and wage growth is expected to be about 21/2 per cent this year. A wage settlement with no increase in wages in Norway will, however, contribute to curbing annualised wage growth by a substantial margin in the course of the year. With sizeable labour shortages, a short-term interest of both employers and employees is high wage increases, with high wage growth as a result. However, the economy has built-in stabilisers. High wage growth will reduce employment and thereby the risk of persistently high wage growth.

It now has to consolidate its financial position and employment growth in this sector is expected to show a marked slowdown. There are already signs of a turnaround in the labour market. Unemployment is no longer falling and is expected to rise in the period ahead. The labour market is still tight, and Norges Bank projects weak growth in employment in 1999. The labour market will be just as tight during this year’s wage negotiations as it was last year, but the outlook for employment is now less favourable. Employment may fall somewhat from next year. Unemployment was projected to rise to about 41/2 per cent in 2000 in the December Inflation Report. BIS Review 10/1999  –5–  Norges Bank’s projections indicate that the turnaround will not be as pronounced as the situation at the end of the 1980s, partly owing to the fact that households and enterprises are much better equipped to cope with a downturn today than at the end of the 1980s. The financial position of households is much stronger. The enterprise sector is more solid, and the banks’ core capital ratios are substantially higher. Price and wage inflation was much more out of step with the situation in 1986 and 1987, with double-digit inflation. I am not saying this to trivialise the challenges at hand. It is always a challenge to formulate economic policy when faced with such a substantial decline in income alongside imbalances in the labour market.
The downturn has  10  See press release by the Council of the European Union’s Extraordinary Council meeting, Economic and Financial Affairs, Brussels, 9/10 May 2010. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  been less severe in Switzerland and Swiss output has been the first to reach its pre-crisis level. Overall, GDP rose by 2.6% in 2010, after having fallen by 1.9% in 2009. Chart 9 shows the evolution of inflation together with our most recent conditional forecast. The inflation rate recovered to 0.7% in 2010 after hitting a low of –0.5% in 2009. Why are the SNB interventions often perceived as unsuccessful? For outside observers studying the performance of the Swiss economy going in and out of the crisis and looking at Charts 8 and 9, this must be a puzzle. All the more so when they realise that this performance was not the result of an amply expansionary fiscal policy; on the contrary, the Swiss policy mix, a very expansionary monetary policy combined with a more contained fiscal policy, was appropriate given the circumstances. With the crisis originating almost entirely in foreign markets and hitting the export sector very strongly, a large domestic fiscal stimulus would have missed the target.

Jean-Pierre Danthine: Swiss monetary policy in the public eye Speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Danthine, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Money Market Event, Zurich, 24 March 2011. *  *  *  I would like to thank Marlene Amstad and Gero Jung for their valuable support in drafting this speech. I also want to thank Rita Kobel Rohr for helpful comments. Introduction: the Great Recession vs the Great Depression The Great Recession is behind us. In the case of Switzerland, we may wonder if the term is justified. With a fall in output of 3.2% from the top of the cycle in 2008 to the trough in 2009, the recession was the most severe since the mid-1970s.1 However, measured on a quarterly basis, consumption, which is a more meaningful indicator of economic well-being, barely fell. In Switzerland, the Great Recession was a (relatively severe) recession. What was it, that transformed what many feared could have been a new Great Depression into the Great Recession? As historical data show, the downturn in global industrial output in the first ten to twelve months of the two crises was similar (Chart 1). Economic historians will be occupied with this question for a long time. Let me venture to say that the policy reactions of fiscal and monetary authorities will occupy a central position in the historians’ final answer. Charts 2 and 3 provide some illustrations of the difference in policy responses between 1929 and 2008.
The assessments emphasised the cultural similarity of the countries in our region to the west European countries, relatively low barriers to business activity for West European companies as well as high qualifications of our employees. While comparing the abovementioned countries it has been indicated that the grade for Poland is slightly lower than for the Czech Republic as regards the infrastructure and respect for intellectual property rights. Offshoring in its broader scope constitutes a new idea of innovation in enterprise management 27 . While as a result of production relocation the company may lower its costs substantially, a much more important advantage of offshoring is that it may become an incentive to change production processes. In extreme cases this may lead to a situation where a company divests itself of all processes that have no direct connection with production or services rendered. 23  However, relocation of manufacturing to countries with lower labour costs need not to be a rule. Research by Aubert and Sillar (2005) indicated that between 1995 and 2001 in France less than a half of all relocated jobs (on the offshore basis) in manufacturing were moved to countries with low production costs. According to the authors, such results rather to a motive of enterprise restructuring, whereas the phenomenon of offshoring is limited primarily to large enterprises employing over 500 persons. See P. Aubert and P . Sillar , „Offshoring and Job Losses in French Industry”, April 2005, OECD working paper. 24  OECD, “Growth in Services.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Swiss outlook and global developments Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Icon Roadshow Euro 2008, Frankfurt am Main, 17 March 2008. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The Swiss economy looks back on a number of successful years during which it was a very active participant in the growth of the world economy. The export sector rapidly expanded its presence in the new markets, thereby making an important contribution to this development. What was remarkable was that the increased foreign activities were not detrimental to Switzerland as a production location. On the contrary, the Swiss location benefited overall. Reforms aimed at strengthening and opening up Switzerland as a business location have also made a substantial contribution to economic prosperity in recent years. The turbulence on the financial markets that erupted in mid-2007 is unlikely to leave the Swiss economy unscathed. The export sector, including the banks, will be affected by the slowdown in the international economy. An additional factor is the substantial rise in the value of the Swiss franc over the past few months against the euro and the US dollar. However, we are already in a position to learn quite a bit from the financial market turmoil.
Secondly, output in 1989, at the end of the communist era, comprised a very large component of heavy military material and moreover inferior equipment and consumption goods that never came close to being sold or valued in a market, the majority of which were most likely unsellable in a market economy, and many of which were unusable even in a planned economy. The convergence towards the EU average went on during the entire period from 1992-1993 when we had reliable statistics. GDP has grown faster than in the EU and more rapidly in the poorest countries in the group than in the richer ones. This is exactly what we can expect from theories on international economics and long-term convergence in productivity and prosperity. Behind these figures lies a revolutionary change that makes structural change in EU countries pale by comparison. For each component of GDP that has shrank, another component has grown; for each day that an old heavy industry has closed its gates, dozens of new small enterprises have started up. Allow me to give some examples: In 1991 the private sector constituted 10 per cent of GDP in Estonia; today it is over 80 per cent. Manufacturing, which accounted for 47 per cent of GDP in the Czech Republic in 1992, now comprises 38 per cent, while services at the same time have risen from 44 to 58 per cent. Nevertheless, economic growth in the new member states is not high enough.

In the first place, inflation was fuelled by severe supply chain disruptions due to Covid and then by the shock to commodity prices as vaccines paved the way for the world’s economies to reopen simultaneously. As these factors began to recede, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused a rapid run-up in the prices of energy and commodities, including agricultural commodities. Today, the effects of these shocks on inflation have begun to fade. This winter, energy prices fell sharply, and global grain prices have headed downwards since February. But the nature of inflation has changed. In spreading to the wider economy, these shocks stoked internal inflation, as higher production costs prompted companies to pass the increases on to their selling prices. The effects of inflation also widened to include all goods and services. Accordingly, “underlying” inflation, i.e. excluding food and energy, has climbed to 4.6% in France and could prove more persistent than the headline number. Monetary policy can and must curb this more “domestic” and broad-based inflation. To do this, the Eurosystem has responded quickly and forcefully over the last year, hiking policy rates by 350 basis points to take the deposit facility rate from -0.5% to 3% between July 2022 and March 2023. Monetary policy has now entered into a “restrictive” territory, after reaching a neutral position at the end of last year, and has shifted to an “instrumentpiloting” approach based on three economic instrument dials: the outlook for headline inflation, underlying inflation and the proper transmission of monetary policy.