samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Economic recovery in Spain requires structural changes that will encourage technologically dynamic productive sectors with high growth potential to take up the baton from construction. For this to occur, the labour market must function so as reallocate resources, increase and adapt workers’ skills to new demands, and make productive processes within companies more efficient. Reform should focus on ensuring that labour conditions adjust to the economy’s different cyclical junctures and, in particular, to the specific circumstances companies or productive sectors face. That should prevent the adjustment coming about through pushing large numbers of workers out of the market. Changes are also needed in hiring arrangements. These must allow workers who have lost their jobs to return promptly to active working life, so they do not spend long periods unemployed, the consequences of which were so adverse in the past. Improvements in labour market intermediation systems and in mobility and training for the unemployed are also very important. Resolute action here would help check business closures and lessen the risk of decapitalisation, which is admittedly very high at present. If, moreover, significant progress were made in eliminating administrative formalities, the Spanish economy would be better placed to resume a high growth rate once the world recovery began. To bring about a new productive pattern enabling high rates of potential growth to be regained, structural measures must span a wide range of fields. Improving the level of educational attainment of the labour force is vital for raising the quality and productivity of human capital.

Frank Elderson: The European Central Bank's monetary policy strategy - delivering our mandate in all circumstances Keynote speech by Mr Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the European Parliament conference on "Greening monetary policy in times of soaring inflation", Brussels, 28 September 2022. *** Many thanks for giving me the opportunity to deliver the introductory remarks at this conference on greening monetary policy at a time when inflation is far too high. Although I am delivering these remarks remotely, it is always a privilege to speak directly to you, the elected representatives of Europe's citizens, the very same citizens – served by EU institutions, including the European Central Bank – who are united in their commitment to foster peace and stability in their part of the world, even when that very world is subject to significant transformation and upheaval. The pandemic and the war have shaken the environment in which the EU must address the vital challenges that it faces, including the ongoing climate and environmental crises. Since Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the global economic outlook has become much less favourable. Having said that, the invasion has not shaken the EU's resolve to address the challenges faced. In actual fact, the war and the ensuing energy crisis have only served to increase EU authorities' determination to reduce the bloc's dependence on fossil energy sources.
Therefore, with inflation running at 16-20 percent in the Baltic States, interest rates became strongly negative in real terms and the monetary policy procyclical, boosting consumption, while the fixed exchange rate has discouraged production. Basically, the main weakness of the currency board, namely the inability to respond to exogenous adverse factors, pushed the economies of those countries towards a hard landing. Let's look now at the picture in Romania. Our exchange rate regime, featuring a flexible exchange rate in a managed floating system, allowed the market to correct the overappreciation the leu had registered at a certain point via its own mechanisms, and the BNR was able to raise interest rates – which it did seven times already over the past 10 months – in order to permanently keep them in real-positive territory and curb inflation which had been triggered by the same external factors that affected the countries you have mentioned before. The BNR has even moved forward in order to slow down consumption and maintain a healthy portfolio for commercial banks via the recent prudential measures  BIS Review 113/2008  1  regarding loans to households. All these have significantly contained the risk of a hard landing for the Romanian economy, even if such a risk still lingers as long as the gap between the current account deficit and its financing via FDI remains significant. Nevertheless, the foreign analysts that included Romania in the group of the five countries exposed to a hard landing had substantiated their opinion. Are they completely wrong?

Ample liquidity: refinancing operations (TLTRO III, PELTROs) Also in keeping with our mandate, I would like to briefly mention that we have been able to rely on the traditional tools we have at our disposal. For example, we have made changes to our existing refinancing operations and introduced new pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations (PELTROs) in order to provide credit to the banks and the real economy. As a result, we have seen a surge in the provision of credit in support of the real economy as well as a related knock-on effect on asset prices. Supervisory measures – the need for an innovative approach to tackle the crisis I would now like to look at the supervisory side, where the ECB has had to take an innovative 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  approach to tackling the crisis. As I mentioned earlier, what is true for our bold monetary policy response to the pandemic is also true for our supervisory response: our measures are exceptional and temporary and within the regulatory boundaries of the internationally agreed framework. The ECB was one of the first supervisory authorities to recommend that all banks under its supervision restrict their dividend distributions in the light of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Soon after our announcements in March, other supervisory bodies around the world followed suit with similar measures. While not binding, most banks have followed the ECB’s recommendation.
Inflation has been expected to pick up for some time. Since summer 2005, the key policy rate has been raised by 3.5 percentage points to 5.25 per cent. Norges Bank’s interest rate setting is based on two main criteria for future interest rate developments. First, the interest rate is set with a view to stabilising inflation close to the target in the medium term. The horizon will depend on disturbances to which the economy is exposed and their effects on prospects for the path for inflation and the real economy. Second, the interest rate should provide a reasonable balance between the path for inflation and the path for capacity utilisation. In the assessment, potential effects of property prices and the krone exchange rate on the prospects for output, employment and inflation are also taken into account. The various factors that influence interest rate prospects are now pointing in different directions. As a result of the financial market turbulence and uncertainty about developments in the US, market expectations concerning economic growth and central bank key rates have fallen, in both the short and long term. The Federal Reserve has reduced its key rate by 3 percentage points since September 2007 and interest rates are again moving down in the US and a number of other countries. Interest rates are being cut to address weaker economic growth prospects.

There are also many indications that the covariance between Sweden and the euro area will increase further if we join the Eurosystem, as trade and integration with the euro countries would be strengthened. Increased trade and greater openness to the outside world have positive effects on the development of growth and incomes. In my opinion, the European integration of which EMU forms a part should not stop at the borders of the EU, but be the first step towards greater global openness. Conclusion I have today accounted for the current monetary policy situation in Sweden and the assessments that formed the basis for our decision last week to leave the repo rate unchanged. A low inflation rate (2%), which is the target for monetary policy, does not in itself create good growth and welfare; it should rather be seen as a fundamental condition to ensure that other parties - trade and industry, organisations, government and parliament - are successful in working to improve Sweden’s economy by various different means. In other words, it is an extensive and complicated interplay that will determine how well a country’s economic potential is realised. The Riksbank does its best to ensure that monetary policy provides a contribution here. Thank you for listening! 1  EMU commission of enquiry report SOU 1996:158. BIS Review 37/2002  7  1.
As we consider the possibilities for the offshore RMB market, it is instructive to review the development of the Eurodollar market. What are the key underlying elements that have driven the growth of the Eurodollar market and how do they feature in the current offshore RMB market environment? The Eurodollar market as a comparison A close examination of the differences and similarities between the two markets can help shed light on how offshore RMB market activities might evolve as well as how its further development can be fostered. Let’s compare the two markets using four sets of characteristics. Economic weight and trade centrality The first set of characteristics involves economic weight and trade centrality. The Eurodollar market is an offshore market for the currency of a country that has both. Similarly, the offshore RMB market is supported by China’s rapidly expanding economy and its substantial trade links with other parts of the world, given its status as the world’s second largest economy and largest trading nation. Indeed, these are two important macro trends that are driving offshore RMB market activities now and in the future. In roughly three years since the relevant policies were liberalised, currently some 10% of Mainland China’s total trade, about 12% of foreign direct investment into China and about 4% of outward direct investment from China are settled in RMB. 1  Mr Tony Shale, Chief Executive Officer, Euromoney Institutional Investor, Asia. 2  Mr Richard Morrow, Editor, Asiamoney.

Intermediation among non-residents The third set of characteristics involves the provision of intermediation among non-residents. The Eurodollar market provides efficient intermediation among non-residents. For example, it allows for Eurodollar bonds to be issued by non-US entities and bought by non-US investors. To an increasing extent, the offshore RMB market is functioning as a platform for RMB financial activities conducted by non-residents. The pool of RMB deposits in Hong Kong, being deposits of mainly non-Mainland individuals and corporates, is exceeding RMB 800 billion. Adding to that is the dim sum bond market, which has a size of RMB 260 billion at present. Offshore RMB bonds are being issued by Mainland Chinese entities as well as multinationals, and they are being bought by offshore investors. At the same time, banks in Hong Kong are extending RMB loans to customers, with the outstanding amount of such RMB loans currently stands at close to RMB90 billion. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  As the market deepens and a greater variety of RMB products become available offshore, we will eventually see more RMB intermediation within the offshore markets, especially as non-Chinese residents become willing borrowers of RMB. However, for that to happen, work on different fronts needs to be pursued and market efficiency furthered through innovative solutions and active participation by different market players.
Another untapped segment of the market is the takaful sector in view of the fact that Muslims constitute more than 40% of the population in ASEAN, mainly in Malaysia , Indonesia and Brunei . Globally, the Muslim population accounts for about 24% of the total population. This has supported the growth of the takaful market in recent years as an alternative to  2  BIS Review 134/2007  conventional insurance. The global takaful market is expected to grow between 15 and 20 per cent per annum. Based on the market penetration level which is at 6.8% in Malaysia and less than 5% in many Muslim countries, this represents significant market potential for the future growth of takaful business. The expansion of insurance markets in ASEAN will need to be reinforced by further consumer education to increase awareness among the public on the importance of longterm financial planning as well as to equip them to evaluate product features and make informed decisions. The insurers must recognise that it is an important responsibility on their part not just to ensure that adequate information is provided to the consumers, but that consumers are suitably advised in the sales process. This includes ensuring that information about insurance products is presented in a manner that is meaningful and easily understood by consumers. This distinction between quantity and quality is important.

The changing priorities and lifestyles of this new generation, growing wealth and increasing proportion of middle income population will also support continued and further growth in demand for investment-linked and wealth management products. As a result, the insurance industry has, and will continue to, expand its role beyond merely providing protection products. Against this backdrop, prospects for increasing the insurance penetration rate in our economies are clearly positive. However, this will hinge on the ability of the industry to respond to these changing demographics and dynamics in the financial system. In 2006, the insurance premiums averaged 2.95% of GDP in South East Asia as compared with 8.8% in the U.S. or 16.5% in the U.K. Compared to the  BIS Review 134/2007  1  banking sector, the insurance industry remains relatively less developed and commands a significantly smaller percentage of the total financial assets of the region's financial system. To tap these opportunities, appropriate strategies, new thinking and approaches will be required. In this regard, a significant development has been the evolution of alternative distribution mechanisms for insurance products and services in the region, notably through bancassurance. Indeed, bancassurance has developed in a number of ASEAN markets into a viable alternative distribution approach to the traditional agency force. Perhaps, in those markets where the insurance distribution channels through agency force have yet to be firmly established, bancassurance could provide a quantum leap to allow insurers to rapidly widen their outreach by tapping into an established banking network and client base.
Long-run patterns of growth are also consistent with a patience-based explanation. Relative to animals, human systems have experienced extra-ordinary economic development, especially over the past 400 years. And the timing of that development has a neurological link. Between 1 million BC and 50,000 BC, world GDP per capita was roughly unchanged. By the end of that period, Neanderthal man had gone the way of the dinosaurs. Inside our skulls, patience and the pre-frontal cortex became, literally and metaphorically, front and centre. In the subsequent period, patience brought prosperity. Between 50,000 BC and 1000 AD, world GDP per capita rose around 50%, at an annual growth rate of 0.00072%. Economists today would classify that as anaemic. But, at the time, it must have felt like a Golden Age. In the subsequent millennium, world GDP per capita has risen 50-fold, at an annual growth rate of around 0.4%. Much of that growth has been since 1750 AD, since when world GDP per capita has risen almost 37-fold, at an annual growth rate of 1.4% per annum. 3 It is difficult to imagine patience not having hastened this dramatic journey. Some studies have drawn a more explicit link between patience and growth. Studies have linked various cultural and religious characteristics to growth. 4 For example, it has been  1  For example, Stevens et al (2005), although Rosati et al (2007) argue that, when making food choices, chimpanzees and bonobos exhibit greater patience than humans. 2  Figner et al (2010). 3  DeLong (1998).

Rosati, A G, Stevens, J R, Hare, B and Hauser, M D (2007), “The Evolutionary Origins of Human Patience: Temporal Preferences in Chimpanzees, Bonobos, and Human Adults”, Current Biology 17, pp 1663–1668. 20  BIS Review 114/2010  Schultz, W, Preuschoff, K, Camerer, C, Hsu, M, Fiorillo, C D, Tobler, P N and Bossarts, P (2010), “Explicit Neural Signals Reflecting Reward Uncertainty”, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 363, 3801–3811. Securities and Exchange Commission (2010), Facilitating Shareholder Nominations, available at http://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2010/33-9136.pdf  Director  Shiller, R J (1981), “Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?”, American Economic Review 71(5), pp 421–436. Skinner, D J (2008), “The Evolving Relation Between Earnings, Dividends, and Stock Repurchases”, Journal of Financial Economics 87(3), pp 582–609. Smith, A (1759), The Theory of Moral Sentiments, London: A. Millar. Stevens, J R, Hallinan, E V, and Hauser, M D (2005), “The Ecology and Evolution of Patience in Two New World Monkeys”, Biological Letters, 1, 223–226. Stiglitz, J (1974), “On the Irrelevance of Corporate Financial Policy”, American Economic Review 64(6), pp. 851–866. Thaler, R H and Benartzi, S (2004), “Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioural Economics to Increase Employee Saving”, Journal of Political Economy 112(1), pp S164–187. Thaler, R H and Shefrin, H M (1981), “An Economic Theory of Self Control”, Journal of Political Economy 89(2), pp 392–406. Thaler, R H and C R Sunstein (2009), Nudge: Improving Decisions about Wealth, Health and Happiness, Yale University Press.
In particular, the ECB became the direct prudential supervisor of significant banks in Member States participating in the SSM, received some macroprudential tools in addition to its existing microprudential tasks, engaged in crisis management activities, and liaised with the Commission in connection with assistance programmes for certain Member States financed via the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). In the light of these developments, it is important to consider the extent to which the very high level of independence granted to the ECB by Article 130 of the Treaty applies to each of its new tasks and responsibilities. Is the principle of independence under Article 130 of the Treaty applicable to the ECB in its role as a banking supervisor? Regarding the extent to which the principle of independence under the Treaty applies to the ECB in its role as a prudential supervisor of credit institutions, both the wording of Article 130 of the Treaty and the jurisprudence of the CJEU make it clear that the independence the ECB enjoys is limited to the performance of the tasks conferred on the Eurosystem and the ECB by the Treaty and the Statute of the ESCB in pursuit of the objective of price stability and, without prejudice to that objective, to supporting the general economic policies in the  http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2017/html/sp170330.en.html[03.04.2017 15:53:14]  Central bank independence revisited  Union.

[38]As was done in Article 20 of the SSM Regulation in respect of the audit. [39]For general considerations on that matter, see Bini Smaghi, L. (2006), “  Independence and accountability of supervision in the European financial market”. [40]For instance, the German supervisory authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht) is subject to  http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2017/html/sp170330.en.html[03.04.2017 15:53:14]  Central bank independence revisited  instructions from the Ministry of Finance. [41]See also Bini Smaghi, L. (2006), “  Independence and accountability of supervision in the European financial market”. [42]The Chair has a non-renewable term of office of five years  (Article 26(3) of the SSM Regulation) and may be dismissed from office following a special procedure by the appointing body (the Council) only in two specifically listed cases (Article 26(4) of the SSM Regulation). [43]The Vice Chair is chosen from among the members of the Executive Board and the independence safeguards for the Executive Board apply to her/him (Article 26(3) and (4) of the SSM Regulation). [44]The rules for the ECB representatives in the Supervisory Board are not set out in the SSM Regulation but in the ECB Decision on the appointment of representatives of the ECB to the Supervisory Board (ECB/2014/4), which defines a nonrenewable term of office of five years (Article 1(2)) and lists the two specific cases under which they can be dismissed from office by the appointing authority (the ECB’s Governing Council).
Transparency requires me to record, in this genealogy, that one of the founding Houses of the Accepting Houses Committee back in 1914 was Cunliffe Bros, whose founder was actually Governor of the Bank of England at the time. Transparency however also requires me to make clear that he was no relation. I do, however, feel a little sense of eponymous history in speaking here tonight. Financial markets of course have changed greatly since Cunliffe Bros, with half a million pounds of capital, was a force in the City. I want to look today briefly at how financial markets have grown worldwide, why they are subject to strong pressures to cluster activities in key centres and how this has affected the concentration of financial services in the UK – or as it is often, and misleadingly described, in London. 2  I also want to touch on two of the fundamental challenges faced by financial markets and the institutions that support them – maintaining, or some would say, restoring their ‘social license’ and managing systemic risk. And finally, given that this is the Association for Financial Markets in Europe, I will touch briefly on one or two possible implications for European capital markets of the UK’s exit from the European Union. In passing, I will say a little about how the Bank sees these issues. Our role and responsibilities have evolved as markets have evolved.

But the scale and scope of broader international activity here suggests that clustering effects such as labour market externalities, specialised inputs and knowledge transfer have become even more powerful in a world of financial globalisation. It is conceivable that given time these effects and the benefits they bring in terms of more efficient allocation of capital and risk could be replicated elsewhere in Europe. It is in my view more likely that if they are lost in London they would be lost to Europe – for the foreseeable future at the least. Fragmentation of wholesale financial markets activity in Europe, to the extent it occurs, is likely to have a general cost to European economies, including the UK. And to the extent that the transition to whatever new arrangements will apply is not orderly and smooth, the costs and risks will be greater. This is of course a technocrat’s view and these issues, rightly, will not be settled by technocrats. The impact of Brexit on European financial markets is only a part of a much broader set of considerations. As an ex EU negotiator, I have some inkling of how many other factors can come into play. Whatever the outcome, and the twists and turns on the way, the Bank will continue to focus on its role in protecting financial stability. Financial markets have come a long way since Cunliffe Bros became a founding member of the Accepting Houses Committee at the end of the first wave of financial globalisation.