samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The decline, as a percentage of GDP, in government consumption, social transfers and the interest burden is particularly noteworthy. As a result of the interplay between these fiscal targets and the macroeconomic setting described above, the budgetary policy stance can be described as practically neutral, if the estimations of the change in the primary structural balance included in the 2016 Budget Plan are taken into consideration. Clearly, if any of the risks to growth I mentioned earlier were to materialise, or financing costs were to increase, it would be more difficult to meet the government deficit commitments, and this must continue to be the main aim of Spanish budgetary policy. The enhanced credibility of Spanish economic policy in recent years is a result of the achievements in the area of fiscal consolidation; to maintain this credibility we need to continue and complete the process of correcting the fiscal imbalances. Conclusions The Spanish economy has made visible progress in the correction of the external imbalance, the deleveraging of households and firms, the redressing of fiscal balances towards levels more compatible with the sustainability of public finances and the restructuring and consolidation of the banking sector. Unemployment has also begun to decrease significantly. The reforms undertaken within Spain, along with the headway made in furthering economic and monetary union and the ECB’s highly expansionary monetary policy, have proven key to restoring confidence. However, the legacy of the crisis, eight years after its onset, is still burdensome as shown by the high levels of unemployment and foreign debt.

European Central Bank: Press conference – introductory statement Introductory statement by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, and Mr Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, 10 June 2010. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, Mr Constâncio, the new Vice-President of the ECB, and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting, which was also attended by Commissioner Rehn. Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The current rates remain appropriate. Taking into account all the new information which has become available since our meeting on 6 May 2010, we continue to expect price developments to remain moderate over the policyrelevant medium-term horizon. Global inflationary pressures may persist, while domestic price pressures are expected to remain low. The latest information has also confirmed that the economic recovery in the euro area continued in the first half of 2010, but quarterly growth rates are likely to be rather uneven. Looking ahead, we expect the euro area economy to grow at a moderate pace, in an environment of continued tensions in some financial market segments and of unusually high uncertainty. Our monetary analysis confirms that inflationary pressures over the medium term remain contained, as suggested by weak money and credit growth.
The potential benefits of a well integrated ICT in agriculture are diverse and include: •  transparent dissemination of information such as weather patterns, seed and fertilizer use, availability and distribution;  •  easy accessibility to suppliers of inputs;  •  common distribution of information on market prices of crops; and  •  generally bringing together of suppliers and buyers of crops. Government has put agriculture at the core of rural development and poverty reduction as well as employment creation. It is therefore important to note that the expansion of ICTs in rural communities is more required now than ever before, as most information is now  4  BIS Review 76/2008  disseminated through internet and cellular phones. These facilities will help uplift the living standards of rural communities. 3.2  Agriculture  Zambia’s agriculture sector has enormous potential to become a major grower and exporter of agricultural and horticultural produce. The country has an abundance of quality land, water (over 40% of fresh water resources in Southern Africa) and ideal climate all suited to a wide range of agricultural products. Only 15% of Zambia’s 60 million hectares of arable land is under cultivation. The recent surge in food prices in the world presents an enormous opportunity for Zambia to become the food basket of the sub region. This can be achieved by re-doubling efforts to boost agricultural productivity coupled with substantial increase in infrastructure investment to ease supply bottlenecks that are pushing up prices.

2.0  Recent economic developments  2.1  Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  During the period 2001-2007, growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged about 5.1% per annum, largely due to investment in the mining, tourism, construction and transport  BIS Review 76/2008  1  and agriculture sectors. This has set a strong basis for further favourable economic growth in the medium to long-term. Thus GDP growth is projected to rise by no less than 7.0% in 2008 and beyond. Consistent with the developments in the economy, GDP per capita rose to US $ in 2007 from US $ in 2001. 2.2  Interest rates  Commercial banks’ lending rates have also been declining, though not as fast as the reduction in inflation and Treasury bills rates. For instance, the commercial banks average lending rate fell from 54.6% in December 2001 to 24.4% in December 2007. Lower lending rates are expected in the current environment of low inflation and will contribute to reducing the cost of doing business in Zambia. 2.3  Inflation  Inflation has declined from 18.7% recorded in 2001 to single digit level of 8.2% in 2006 and 8.9% in 2007. It is projected to slow down further to 7.0% by December 2008. This inflation outturn was largely credited to the conduct of appropriate monetary policy coupled with prudent fiscal policy and relative stability of the Kwacha, assisted by lower food prices following the favourable 2005/06 and 2006/07 farming seasons.
The Bank of England and Public Policy: 1941 -1958, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1992, p.750 10 A short-term debt instrument issued by a company that is guaranteed by a commercial bank, often used to facilitate trade. 11 Fforde, p.755 8  5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  And yet, as in the 1890 Barings episode, you can see in this activity elements which persist in supervision today. For instance, while I do not wish to offer any formal comment on the state of Mark Carney’s eyebrows, in my experience a meeting with Mark is always a useful way to focus the mind. It is worth remarking that during this period there was a genuine window of opportunity to extend the 12  boundaries of banking supervision undertaken by the Bank and legislate accordingly . However, after a year’s negotiation, it came to nothing and instead of a Banking Act 1957, the banking sector would have to wait until 1979 before the Bank involved itself more formally in the affairs of firms and, crucially, on a statutory basis. In the period up to the 1970s, there had been ‘no recent case of depositors losing their money. There was little public interest in the subject and there had been no troubles that might have led to a demand for the 13  Bank’s help’ . This set of circumstances changed abruptly when the secondary banking crisis engulfed the City in the period 1973-5.

As time goes by, we will have to consider our options. A review of our future exchange rate policy will be particularly important. The possibility of Iceland at some stage joining a larger currency area should not be precluded, particularly if the political and economic cost of staying outside will be found to outweigh any advantage of maintaining an own currency. BIS Review 117/1999  4  Iceland and America Looking briefly in another direction, Iceland’s relations with the great continent in the West date back a thousand years. In recent decades, we have had important trade links with the United States. However, the relative share of trade with the US has declined significantly, or below 15%, since exports to the US peaked at almost 30% of total exports in the 1970s. Imports from the US also declined significantly from a high level around the middle of the century to around 10% of total imports in the most recent years. The number of American tourists has also declined in relative terms. Although the share of the US in Icelandic merchandise trade and tourism has declined, the US dollar still plays a significant role as a vehicle currency in Icelandic trade and foreign exchange transactions. Recent changes in the geographical pattern of trade and investment reflect the liberalisation of trade within Europe and the increasing globalisation of the world economy. Like other developed countries, Iceland has a most favoured nations agreement with the US and Canada.
•  In financial firms, it is important that these policies and practices dispel the perception of good ethics as a constraint on profitability or hurdle to career advancement. We are beginning to see some progress. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  •  Performance appraisals in some banks now take into account how an employee’s conduct is consistent with the banks’ avowed principles and values. •  Others have developed balanced scorecards for remuneration that go beyond traditional measures of financial performance to include indicators relating to culture and controls. •  Yet others take into account a business unit’s record on compliance, customer experience, internal audit findings and other relevant considerations to underscore the organisation’s behavioural expectations of staff. Conclusion Let me conclude. The global financial industry’s standing with the public is at an inflection point. It could continue a downward spiral of mistrust with yet more egregious misconduct, or it could seize this opportunity to restore high ethical standards. Thankfully, we are in a better place in Singapore. The financial industry here is generally well regarded and trusted. But we have not been immune to some of the egregious practices in global finance, for example, attempts to manipulate financial benchmarks and the mis-selling of financial products. We must be on our guard, and work to further strengthen ethical standards and a culture of trust in the industry. •  We must foster a culture in the industry that looks beyond the question “is this legal?” to the larger question “is this right?”.

•  And when subsequently questioned by their superiors or regulators, they offered an array of self-justifications, chief of which is “everybody does it”. But everybody does not do it. I believe the vast majority of people working in the financial industry are committed to serving their clients or customers fairly and with integrity. But the unethical actions of a few have undermined trust and created instability. Reform of the financial industry will not be complete until this issue of trust and ethics is addressed. This requires “getting the culture right”. And by culture, I mean the shared values, attitudes and norms that guide actions. There is increasing international regulatory guidance to improve risk governance and align compensation schemes with long-term sustainability and customer interests. This is necessary but not sufficient. There are limits to what externally imposed rules can do to promote the right values in financial firms. •  Because culture develops from within a firm, it invites a certain resonance from the members of that firm – in a way that will be difficult for an externally imposed set of rules to achieve. •  For the same reason, the behavioural norms that a firm’s culture and value system promotes are more amenable to internal governance and self-policing than rules that rely on external enforcement. In short, rules tell us what we can do, but values tell us what we should do.
They have the capability to preside over such cases and give firm, consistent decisions with the backing of SAC rulings. As part of our collaborative effort to expand human capital development initiative, measures are being made to ensure that players within the industry including judges and lawyers are trained in Islamic finance. Moving forward, with the existence of a dedicated court, competent human capital and consistent legal precedents, our courts and arbitration centre are well qualified to serve as a platform for adjudication and dispute settlement. The development of the requisite facilitative legal infrastructure is continuing. It is an ongoing and dynamic process. In the early phases of development, Malaysia had looked into the legal impediments that might hinder Islamic finance. What lies ahead is to harmonise existing laws such that it accommodates and facilitates Islamic finance in the most legally efficient way possible. These laws are not confined to those under financial services acts but to all Malaysian laws. As the future of Islamic finance depends on its agility and innovativeness in developing new products, our laws have to be facilitative and contemporary. Countries that intend to promote Islamic finance must also have laws that are clear and easily enforceable. In this respect, having common laws, or a reference point for laws on Islamic finance, would serve to benefit the industry worldwide. To this end, we are pleased to announce the formation of a Law Harmonisation Committee.

Željko Rohatinski: What 2010 may hold for the Croatian economy Address by Dr Željko Rohatinski, Governor of the Croatian National Bank, at the business conference “Big Plans Day”, organised by the Lider business weekly, Zagreb, 26 October 2009. *  *  *  After a turbulent 2009, the year 2010 is expected to be mostly a year of stagnation (viewed statistically), without major structural changes in the real and financial sectors. More important than the statistics, however, is that no significant changes are expected in the modalities of economy functioning, as there are no substantial changes in the economic policy. But this does not mean that 2010 is going to be a “calm year” and that the “status quo” will be restored and maintained by itself, particularly in the context of current domestic developments which may postpone the country’s exit from recession. The three key determinants of our economic situation in the coming year are the following: (1)  Stagnation in Croatia’s most important partner countries in the European Union and in the region will curb export demand, while, given the poor propulsiveness of our export demand, an “active” improvement in the current account can hardly be expected. Goods and services exports could go up about 5.5% (dropping by 18.1% in 2009).
High inflation therefore erodes price competitiveness of our export sector which is perhaps the economy’s only reliable growth engine at the moment. In the current environment where trying to squeeze more growth from domestic demand could lead to the situation of wage-price spiral where wage and price increases feed in each other, the MPC’s latest decision could thus also be viewed as an attempt to maintain growth along with price stability. While there are certain limits to what inflation targeting can achieve, after all it is not a cure all medicine, the focus on price stability makes the regime suitable to the rapidly changing global environment. Just a few years ago, supply expansion in countries like China and India contributed to a downward pressure on global prices. Today, the tide has turned and it is now strong demand in these countries that fuel rising energy and commodity prices. Going forward, it is expected that global price swings may become more unpredictable, in terms of duration and turning points. In this context, anchoring of inflation expectations offers the economy some protection from global price volatility. Ladies and Gentlemen, Let me turn to address the second question on the future dynamism of Thai economy. In this regard, I would like to emphasize that the situation in Thailand is not as bad as you might think. In fact, the fundamentals and room for maneuvering the right policy mix remain strong. Allow me to elaborate. First, Thailand continues to preserve a strong external position.

This is why modern central banks pay so much attention to ensure that inflation expectations do not run away. In general, how well a central bank can anchor the public’s inflation expectations will depend on the extent in which the public perceived the central bank’s seriousness in fighting inflation. Such credibility hinges critically on the central banks’ actions and what the public expect it to do. Words like “behind the curve” are often used to describe central banks that move too slowly to curb public’s inflation expectations. Central bank, unlike the government which has a fixed term, has a greater incentive to care for economic stability. While the government tends to be more myopic in their policies, central bank is mandated to optimize the benefits across horizon. History has taught us that  BIS Review 98/2008  3  a popular central bank is not always the most credible central bank. A pro-growth central bank is prone to inflationary bias which undermines its credibility in fighting inflation. Disinflation would then become more costly. Inflation targeting is one framework to discipline the central bank by paying attention to price stability. It has been working very well for us and for many other countries in the world that have adopted the regime. But the challenge today is to find the right sacrifice ratio between economic growth and inflation. In addition, the central bank must ensure that inflation expectation is under control and the adherence of inflation targeting framework can go a long way to ensure this.
Nonetheless, the point made here holds: if asset purchases are intended to complement the setting of Bank Rate by supporting the transmission of monetary policy decisions reflected in the changing Bank Rate, then these asset purchases will take place in parallel with Bank Rate changes, rather than once the scope for Bank Rate changes has been exhausted,

Despite falling premium rates, general insurer profits in the past few years have been sustained by both benign catastrophe experience and levels of prior year reserve releases that are now the highest for thirty years (Chart 2). Natural catastrophes are a major component of many GI firms’ risk profiles. Catastrophe losses returned to more normal levels by historical standards in the first half of this year. But the low incidence of catastrophic events in recent years may have given support to the idea that this component has in some way diminished, whether due to trends in nature or more effective management of risks by policyholders and insurers. I have also heard speculation that some man-made risks may have decreased: for example, if planes and ships are built better than previously, or if companies are better at managing their risks. Mindful of both the impact and the uncertainty involved in considering this, we would expect firms to seek the BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  best available evidence and to take a prudent and comprehensive view to the assessment of risks. Put simply, we would not expect a handful of recent data points to lead to a marked reduction in a firm’s assessment of its best estimate of liabilities nor its “1 in 200” risk.
The important point, however, is that in the euro area today structural reforms are not about creating minor efficiencies or marginal gains. They are about unleashing an untapped potential for substantially higher output, employment and welfare. And in the current environment, this would play a crucial role in ensuring that the ongoing cyclical recovery becomes a stronger, structural recovery. Structural reform in a fragile demand environment This discussion on the importance of structural reforms leads in principle to only one conclusion: the earlier they take place, the better. However, while most of us might agree with this statement in normal times, the fact that interest rates have reached the effective lower bound, coupled with the still fragile cyclical situation, makes the situation less straightforward. In particular, the question has been raised as to whether implementing structural reforms when the economy is still weak would be counterproductive, in the sense that it would make it harder to achieve our mandate by further reducing short-term demand. One argument that has been put forward in this context is that, if reforms lead to a credible increase in aggregate supply, they will exert downward pressure on inflation expectations. And if nominal interest rates cannot fall because monetary policy is at the lower bound, real interest rates will then rise, creating contractionary short-term effects. 12 A parallel argument in favour of postponing structural reforms relates to their short-term effects on employment.

Durmuş Yılmaz: Overview of the Turkish economy in the light of new global realities Speech by Mr Durmuş Yılmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the International Arab Banking Summit (IABS 2010), Istanbul, 18 June 2010. *  *  *  Esteemed governors and distinguished guests, At the outset, I want to express my gratitude to the Union of Arab Banks along with Turkish Banking Association, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency and the World Union of Arab Bankers for their efforts in organizing this summit. As the Central Bank of Turkey, we are honored to be a part of this prestigious event congregating such an esteemed group of participants. In this keynote speech, first I want to discuss the post-crisis episode in a global context. Then I will continue with the extent to which the Turkish economy has been affected by the downturn in global economy. Finally, I will conclude with the opportunities and prospects in our region in the light of the new global realities. Dear participants,  As we all observe from the latest data, signs of recovery have continued in the first half of 2010, albeit at variable speeds across countries and regions. Coordinated efforts of the global community have been so far successful in averting a downward spiral similar to the one experienced during the Great Depression. Although global economy is back on its feet, there are several risks involved in this recovery process and many challenges lie ahead.