samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
High productivity growth contributed to low inflation in 2006 Inflation rose last year, but was nevertheless below the 2 per cent target. CPI inflation rose by an average of 1.4 per cent. Underlying inflation, UND1X, was 1.2 per cent. A comparison with our forecasts shows that inflation was lower in 2006 than we had anticipated in 2004. On the other hand we succeeded in predicting last year’s inflation in the forecasts we made in 2005. One reason why inflation has been low in recent years is that prices of imported goods have developed weakly. This is probably linked to stiff international price competitive pressure. Another important reason is that productivity has risen faster than the Riksbank and other forecasters had expected. The unexpectedly high productivity growth has meant that companies have been able to increase production at a rapid rate without costs per unit produced rising to any great extent. Understanding which mechanisms and changes in the economy that lie behind the strong productivity has been, and is, an important task for the Riksbank. Other forecasters have also assumed that companies’ production conditions should have been affected by the various structural changes we have seen acting in the economy over many years now. I am thinking here of phenomena such as globalisation and the rapid development of information technology. Most analysts probably agree that these changes have contributed to increased competitive pressure and that they have enabled production to be made more efficient in several ways.

The crisis showed that there was ample scope to improve the efficiency and resilience of the global financial system. Through clarity of purpose and resolute implementation Brisbane will mark an important milestone in our efforts. That we have reached this point is a triumph of the optimists. But we must not stop work. There is still much scope to improve. The process of reform is not over. We will continue to learn and adjust. And we must continue to manage the system effectively in the face of new risks. With that we can deliver the open and resilient financial system that can support strong sustainable balanced growth around the world. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
Such unwinding is a necessary process to clear excesses and reduce financial leverages that have been built up in the form of high level of the US’s current account deficits. Economically speaking, to reduce the deficits, the value of the US dollar needs to fall and the levels of US long-term interest rates need to rise. Exchange rate adjustment is very much ongoing. The US dollar has declined by about 8.0 percent in nominal effective terms since 2006. And reflecting this, the US current account began to show improvements last year, and is expected to improve further as we go forward. Experiences from the recent episodes of current account adjustments elsewhere, including the one here in Thailand after 1997, show that this process of adjustment can be long, with a potential for substantial dislocations to economic activities, especially if proper policies are not put in place. Important in this context is the dynamic of the interactions between the real economy and the financial sector that tend to feed on each other either positively or negatively. Therefore, to address the current challenge, it is important that policymakers pay close attention to this dynamic especially on the issues of liquidity, the health of the banking sector, the conditions for a normalization of business activities, and the ability to service debt by households. In my view, policymakers in the US have moved relatively quickly on all these fronts, which is positive for the markets. Let me turn now to the implications for Thailand.

Heightened political uncertainty has, however, occasionally left its mark on the bond and foreign exchange markets. For instance, demand for highly rated government bonds has remained strong since the start of the year. In addition, despite largely positive economic data, the inflation outlook for the major advanced economies is still muted. As a result, yields on highly rated government bonds have changed only marginally since the beginning of 2017  Page 1/5  Berne, 15 June 2017 Andréa M. Maechler  News conference  and have remained low (cf. chart 3). In Switzerland, too, the yield on ten-year Confederation bonds has remained essentially unchanged. On the foreign exchange market, the Swiss franc experienced repeated episodes of upward pressure as a result of heightened political uncertainty in Europe. The elections in the Netherlands and France, as well as the UK’s upcoming Brexit negotiations with the EU, generated increased demand for currencies considered particularly safe by investors. After the presidential election in France, the euro strengthened and pressure on the Swiss franc subsided. Since the beginning of the year, the euro has gained around 3%. The Swiss franc is now trading close to where it was at the start of the year, and thus remains significantly overvalued. Despite ongoing normalisation of monetary policy in the US, the dollar has depreciated roughly 5%. Establishment of SARON as reference rate for interest rate derivatives  Let me now turn to innovations on the Swiss money market.
Øystein Olsen: The Norwegian economy – macroeconomic developments and monetary policy Speech by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the Finance Norway's Capital Markets Day 2018, Oslo, 6 April 2018. * * * Accompanying slides First of all, I would like to thank Finance Norway for the opportunity to speak to you today about macroeconomic developments and monetary policy in Norway. As you may be aware, a new regulation on monetary policy came into force earlier this spring. I will return to the regulation and its implications for the conduct of monetary policy and the interest rate outlook. But first, let me start abroad. Chart: Economic growth following the financial crisis The advanced economies have emerged from a challenging period. Ten years ago the world economy was hit by a shock and thrown into the deepest recession since the 1930s. The economic downturn that followed the financial crisis stands apart from earlier recessions. It was both deeper and longer. Potent measures were deployed to address the crisis, but it has still taken time to get the world economy back on its feet. Monetary policy had to play a substantial role in the wake of the crisis. Without powerful economic policy measures, there was a risk of a self-reinforcing recession. Chart: Global real interest rates Central banks were led into unknown territory and implemented unconventional measures. Already low long-term real interest rates were brought down even further.

Ten years of historically low interest rates and large-scale asset purchases give cause for reflection. An important question is what responsibilities should rest with a central bank. A related theme is what is meant by the objective of low and stable inflation. Chart: Inflation in Norway The primary objective of monetary policy is to maintain monetary stability, as part of the central bank’s responsibility for the monetary system. Inflation that is either too high or too low has undesired consequences, such as arbitrary wealth redistribution, underinvestment and resource misallocations. The result is lower activity and lower welfare. Since 1990, an increasing number of countries have chosen to link monetary stability to a numerical inflation target. Since the financial crisis, all of these countries have maintained their inflation targeting regimes. This reflects the overall positive experience with this framework. It did not get in the way of a powerful response to the financial crisis. In Norway too, inflation targeting has functioned well. Inflation has remained low and stable since it came down in the early 1990s, and the inflation target has anchored inflation expectations. During the period of inflation targeting, the Norwegian economy has been exposed to major shocks. A flexible inflation targeting regime has helped dampen their impact on output and employment. Employment variability has been lower since 2001 than in previous periods. 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Lessons have been learned along the way. Initially, central banks had high ambitions to steer inflation to target within a clearly defined time horizon.
It was initially announced that the programme would have an envelope of € billion, which was expanded in June to € trillion, extending the horizon of purchases to at least June 2021. The main difference from previous programmes is that, under the PEPP, asset purchases are conducted in a flexible manner, allowing fluctuations in their distribution over time, among jurisdictions and across asset classes, with a view to preventing fragmentation in monetary policy transmission. Today we can say that the PEPP has been clearly successful in curbing financial market deterioration in all euro area countries. This is particularly visible in sovereign yields, which are now close to their pre-crisis levels, but it may also be perceived in other market segments such as corporate debt. This decline in the cost of sovereign debt has provided fiscal authorities in all countries in the area with room for manoeuvre, enabling them to deploy unprecedented measures to sustain the income of households and firms. What can we say about the current situation? We are witnessing a recovery that is still partial, uncertain and uneven across countries, sectors and individuals. For instance, in aggregate terms, the level of GDP in the euro area in the third quarter was still 4.3% below that of the fourth quarter of 2019. By country, output loss among the four largest economies in the euro area was more pronounced in Spain (9.1%) than in Italy, France and Germany (with drops of 4.5%, 4.1% and 4.2%, respectively).

The projected tax revenue for 2013 is subject to downside risks because it is based on the assumption that the revenue targets for 2012 will be achieved. However, on the information currently available, it cannot be ruled out that revenue performs worse than expected in 2012. If this risk materialises and is not countered by appropriate action in the remainder of the year, that would make it difficult to achieve the targets set for 2013, compounding the possible effects of a bigger decline in GDP than that assumed in the budgetary programming. Expenditure On the expenditure side, the weight of three items should first be underlined: Social Security system contributory pensions, unemployment benefits and the interest on government debt. In 2012, these three items are equivalent to 20% of GDP and will account for approximately 36% of total public spending. In 2013, these percentages will foreseeably increase significantly. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Noteworthy among the measures considered on the expenditure side are: the freezing of civil servants’ and public-sector employees’ salaries, although they will recover their December extra payroll, which, together with not filling vacancies, will result in a very low increase in personnel costs in relation to serving employees of around 0.1%. Real investments are reduced by 46%, whereas the interest burden increases by more than € billion. In the Social Security system, spending on contributory pensions, sickness and other benefits will grow by slightly more than 5%, factoring in the raising of pensions by 1%.
In spite of the market’s grave concerns about the debt situation in many smaller European countries, and in spite of rising CDS spreads on those same countries and the tendency towards contagion and a herd mentality in the market, Iceland’s CDS spread has declined and is now considerably below those in the European countries whose debt problems have received the most press coverage. But output growth is slow in coming, and in that regard, Iceland is far behind most other countries whose GDP began to grow late last year. At the moment it is quite difficult to interpret the signs, which are quite changeable in the current post-crisis turbulence. For example, quarterly GDP figures and various other statistics are quite volatile, changing from one revision to the next – a problem that is global in scope at present. As a result, the Central Bank was sceptical when figures from Statistics Iceland indicated that GDP had begun to grow in the fourth quarter of 2009. The most recent numbers, which indicate a contraction, are more accurate, although I would not be surprised if the contraction proved somewhat smaller in the final figures. Most indicators suggest that we have hit bottom and that GDP will begin to grow in the latter half of this year, but I do not expect that growth to be strong. In order for GDP growth to gain any real momentum, investment must rise from its current historical low.

Before I turn to Iceland’s situation now and in the near future, I would like to place us in a wider international and historical context. Iceland is truly a small country, and individual positive or negative shocks can trigger economic short-term developments that deviate markedly from those in the rest of the world. But in the end, the possibilities are always limited by global trends. Since the latter half of 2009, the global economy has begun to grow again after the recession that followed the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, but there are still a number of questions about what will come next. Output growth varies greatly from region to region, with a number of emerging economies soaring ahead while many of the developed economies hit hardest by the crisis are not growing fast enough to reduce unemployment, and near-term developments are a source of concern. At work here, to some extent, is the long-term tendency for the divide between emerging and developed countries to narrow. The trend is not necessarily a linear one, though; it tends to play out in fits and starts. But in my opinion, more is involved. Last month I had the opportunity to attend a conference held annually in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, by the US Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Thomas Jordan: The Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy decision and assessment of the economic situation Introductory remarks by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Media News Conference of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 10 December 2015. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen It is a pleasure for me to welcome you to the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) news conference. I will begin by explaining our monetary policy decision and presenting our assessment of the economic situation. Fritz Zurbrügg will then speak about current developments in the area of financial stability. After that, Andréa Maechler will review the situation on the financial markets. Finally, we will – as usual – be pleased to take your questions. Monetary policy decision Let me begin with the inflation forecast and our monetary policy decision. Overall, the new conditional inflation forecast differs little from that of September. It indicates slightly higher inflation in the short term, and that inflation had already bottomed out in the third quarter. Owing to a slight deterioration in the outlook for the global economy, mediumterm inflation is somewhat lower than predicted in September. For the current year, inflation is forecast at –1.1%, a 0.1 percentage point rise on last quarter. For 2016, we still anticipate an inflation rate of –0.5%, and for 2017, the forecast is now at 0.3% instead of 0.4%.

The Chinese economy is currently undergoing structural change, and growth in the country’s industrial output has therefore slowed considerably since the beginning of the year. This has curbed manufacturing activity worldwide and weighed on commodity prices. Global investment activity in the third quarter has thus been hesitant. This has especially impacted economies with strong global trade links as well as commodity-exporting countries. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  In contrast to manufacturing, the services sector performed well in most countries due to robust domestic demand. Particularly in the US and Europe, private household consumption has regained momentum. Contributing factors were the decline in energy prices and a further improvement in the labour market. The SNB has revised its short-term growth forecast for the global economy slightly downwards, but the outlook for the medium term remains unchanged. On the whole, the moderate recovery in the advanced economies looks set to continue, on the back of highly expansionary monetary policy and low energy prices. Increases in public spending should also stimulate demand. In this environment, inflation is likely to pick up again. Our overall assessment of global economic prospects is cautiously optimistic. We nevertheless see significant risks. The structural change underway in China could continue to hold back global manufacturing and investment activity. Equally, structural weaknesses in Europe have yet to be addressed. Current concerns about public safety could also weigh on economic developments.
The law responded with a number of measures to protect shareholders. These included the requirement for companies to disclose information about their operations, such as through company accounts, and powers for shareholder to sue directors (Bryer (1993)). These were augmented with shareholder General Meetings (GM), the forerunner of today’s Annual General Meetings (AGMs). Initially, shareholders’ voting powers at these GMs varied significantly. In a sample of pre1850 companies, 233 different shareholder voting systems were found. The Companies Clauses Consolidation Act of 1845 set as the default voting structure a graduated system of shareholder rights, in which rights reduced according to the scale of shareholding. But during the course of the 19th century, the “one share, one vote” voting model familiar today gradually came into the ascendency (Freeman et al (2012)). Shareholder primacy Accompanying this rise in shareholder rights was a steady rise in acceptance of shareholder primacy as the key objective of a company, at least in the UK and US. A number of legal case decisions, on both sides of the Atlantic, saw this objective enshrined. In the UK, the case of Hutton vs West Cork Railway Company in 1883, the company had been wound up and yet still resolved to pay directors for their past service. Shareholders successfully challenged these awards on the grounds that they did not benefit the company which, crucially, was interpreted to mean its shareholders (Mukwiri (2013)).

But that is rarely possible in practice, other than perhaps a very short distance ahead. 8  See Woodford (2012). 9  See Carney (2012). 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The difficulty of utilising this particular policy channel is probably not a great issue in normal times. But it looms larger when policy is constrained by the zero lower bound on interest rates. In such circumstances – and assuming that alternative policies, such as quantitative easing, are unavailable or ineffective – an ability to exploit this policy-expectations channel becomes much more valuable, as the commitment to hold policy loose in the future feeds back onto aggregate demand today by reducing expected future real interest rates. This comes about both through a low future nominal interest rate and a higher future rate of inflation because policy is held “loose for long”. The intent of such a loose-for-long strategy is in some ways similar to quantitative easing, as both reduce interest rates further down the yield curve. But the former does so by changing the path of risk-free rates at the near end of the yield curve, while the latter operates mainly through variations in the term premium further out along the yield curve brought about by changes in relative asset supplies. Moreover, the loose-for-long approach partly works by raising future inflation, which is not an objective of quantitative easing.
Cyborg supervision – the application of advanced analytics in prudential supervision Speech given by James Proudman Executive Director, UK Deposit Takers Supervision  Workshop on research on bank supervision Bank of England 19 November 2018  I am grateful to Sian Besley, David Bholat, Charlotte Bull, Stephen Denby, Ryan Lovelock, Clair Mills, Philip Sellar, Pete Thomas and Sam Woods for their assistance in preparing these remarks and conducting background research and analysis. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  I. INTRODUCTION  Recognising faces comes instinctively to humans. Until fairly recently, however, it proved beyond the ability of computers. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) - the use of a machine to simulate human behaviour – and its subset, machine learning (ML) – in which a machine teaches itself to perform tasks – are now making facial recognition software much more widely available. You might even use it to access your bank account. Because it is so easy for us but so hard for computers, facial recognition is a good illustration of the challenges faced in developing AI. Enabling a machine to teach itself to recognise a face requires sophisticated algorithms that can learn from data. Advances in computational power and algorithmic techniques are helping machines become more human and super-human like. ML also requires lots of data from which to learn: data are the fuel that powers it – the more data used to train the algorithms, the more accurate their predictions typically become.

It is also about looking forward and staying the course for the medium- to long-term. As institutional investors pivot towards alternative assets, Asian private equity, Asian real estate, and Asian infrastructure can provide credible stores of value in the institutional portfolio. And Singapore’s financial centre – with more than 120 global and regional banks, a diverse ecosystem of over 650 asset managers, and extensive connectivity with the rest of Asia – offers an excellent platform to tap into these opportunities. Thank you, and have a good evening. 1 The IMF forecasts refer to the ASEAN-5 economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and the  Philippines. 6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches