samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Big Innovation Centre (2016), ‘The Purposeful Company (interim report)’, available here: http://www.biginnovationcentre.com/media/uploads/pdf/The%20Purposeful%20Company%2 0Interim%20Report.pdf. BIS (2012), ‘Skills for life survey: a survey of literacy, numeracy and ICT levels in England’, Department for Business Innovation and Skills, available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/ uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/36000/12-p168–2011-skills-for-life-survey.pdf. Bloom, N, Genakos, C, Sadun, R, Van Reenen, J (2012), ‘Management practices across firms and countries’, NBER Working Paper No 17850, available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17850. Boatright, J (2011), ‘Trust and Integrity in Banking’, Ethical Perspectives 18 no 4: 473–489. Boulila, G, Bousrih, L and Trabels, M (2006), ‘Social Capital and Economic Growth: Empirical Investigations on the Transmission channels’, International Economic Journal Vol 22 Issue 3. BSB (2016), ‘Banking Standards Board: First Annual Review’, available at: http://www.bankingstandardsboard.org.uk/banking-standards-board-publishes-first-annualreview/. Carney, M (2015), ‘Building real markets for the good of the people’, speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants of the City of London at the Mansion House, London, 10 June 2015. Cecchetti, S and Kharroubi, E (2012), ‘Reassessing the impact of finance on growth’, BIS working paper no. 381, available at: http://www.bis.org/publ/work381.pdf. 20  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Cohn, A, Fehr, E and Marechal, M (2014), ‘Business culture and dishonesty in the banking industry’, Nature 13977, available at: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/ vaop/ncurrent/full/nature13977.html. Cunliffe, J (2015), ‘Macroprudential policy: from Tiberius to Crockett and beyond’, speech given at TheCityUK, London, available at: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/ Pages/speeches/2015/836.aspx. Davies, R, Haldane A, Nielsen M and Pezzini S (2014), ‘Measuring the costs of shorttermism’ Journal of Financial Stability, vol 12, pages 16–25.

I’d be surprised if those who question our technical judgement at any particular moment could offer more than that. In the circumstances, I do not ask that the technical charge brought against us should be dismissed. But I would encourage you to suspend judgement, or at least to limit our sentence to an extended period of probation. I’m ready now for the cross examination, before the jury begins its deliberations! 3  BIS Review 31/2000
Mervyn King: Monetary policy developments Speech by Mr Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants of the City of London, Mansion House, 15 June 2011. *  *  *  My Lord Mayor, Mr Chancellor, My Lords, Ladies and Gentlemen: In recent years, I have set the Mansion House audience a numerical examination. After a pleasant dinner, you will not want to listen to more numbers. A more literary style is appropriate. So my question to you tonight is: which aspect of financial regulation is most deserving of the adjective “tragic”? The answer comes later. A year ago, we met in the wake of a major sovereign debt crisis in Greece with market nervousness about how far that might spread. Since then, this crisis of external indebtedness has consumed Ireland and now Portugal, as well as Greece. Current account imbalances in the euro area remain large, should concern us all, and will certainly affect us all. Inexorably, the world economy is adjusting from an unstable disequilibrium to a new equilibrium. Trade imbalances and the associated levels of borrowing proved unsustainable. In more biblical language, failure to tackle the imbalances during the seven years of plenty before 2007 threatens seven lean years thereafter for at least part of the world economy.

The new legislation will make clear that the aim  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  of banking regulation will be to ensure that the adverse impact of a failure of a firm on the stability of the system as a whole is minimised. That is why resolution will be at the heart of the new regulatory regime – supervisors should act knowing that resolution powers can and will be deployed in the event of failure. But adequate resolution procedures are not an alternative to ensuring that banks have sufficient loss-absorbing capital; rather they are complements. All institutions, especially so-called systemically important financial institutions, must have much higher levels of loss-absorbing capital than before the crisis. That should be in the form of common equity. A crucial part of the new Basel III framework is the recognition that only common equity is ultimately a truly loss-absorbing layer of capital. I am, therefore, concerned that the European Commission will propose a weakening of the Basel standards in that area. Moreover, as the IMF made clear in its recent Article IV Report, it would be misguided for the EU Capital Requirements Directive to prevent member countries from imposing higher capital requirements to protect the interests of domestic taxpayers. Nor should European legislation try to prevent the FPC from varying macro-prudential instruments, including capital ratios and risk weights, as appropriate to national circumstances. The Basel framework was agreed globally after long and difficult negotiations, at the request of the G20.
Jean-Claude Trichet: Report on the operations of the Banque de France  Introductory letter for the Annual Report of the Banque de France, by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, Governor of the Banque de France, submitted to the President of the French Republic, the President of the Senate and the President of the National Assembly. *  *  *  I am honoured to present you with the report on the operations of the Banque de France, monetary policy and the prospects for it, as required by law. As is the custom, I also submit herewith the Monetary Policy Council’s comments on the past year, which was marked by the introduction of the euro and the implementation of the single monetary policy. After a brief slowdown at the end of 1998 and the start of 1999, French economic growth became firmer from the second quarter of 1999 onwards. The expansion became more broad-based, which points to robust growth in 2000, as do forecasts and business surveys. Foreign trade, which had an adverse effect on activity in 1998, sustained GDP growth in 1999 thanks to the recovery in exports that started in the spring. Furthermore, domestic demand remained strong. The particularly high level of household confidence, the surge in job creation and the purchasing power generated by continuing subdued inflation fostered firm consumption growth, which rose by 2.2% on average in 1999, while corporate investment recorded sustained 7.6% growth. Overall, GDP increased by an average of 2.9%.

Banks’ exposure to reputation risk also changes since problems in another, non-banking part of the conglomerate may influence and damage the bank’s reputation. In terms of financial stability, it may nonetheless be an advantage that bank conglomerates spread their revenue base. This is particularly true if earnings from new activities do not fluctuate in step with earnings from traditional banking activities. However, this is not entirely certain since most sources of bank revenues failed during the banking crisis at the beginning of the 1990s. Risk diversification through the securities market Credit that is channelled directly through the securities market diversifies risk and thereby eases the burden on the banking system. Developments in the securities market have made it easier for banks to vary their financing. In addition, the emergence of a number of new credit sources and new instruments has made it possible for banks to engage in risk trading. Therefore, it has also become easier for banks to diversify risk. The structure of the financial system varies considerably across countries. This is illustrated by the different ways enterprises finance their activities. Norwegian enterprises have a fairly low level of borrowing in the bond and short-term paper market, representing as little as 8 per cent of total financing. Different financing structures mean that the risk associated with extending credit and providing other financial services varies across countries. It is an advantage for enterprises and other operators in the financial market to have several financing sources to draw on.
Marzunisham Omar: Takaful agents - striving for excellence in a disruptive world Speech by Mr Marzunisham Omar, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 1st National Takaful Annual Convention 2018 "Takaful Agents: Striving for Excellence in a Disruptive World", Kuala Lumpur, 14 April 2018. * * * Saya ingin mengucapkan terima kasih kepada pihak penganjur atas jemputan untuk menyampaikan ucaptama di Konvensyen Takaful Tahunan Kebangsaan yang pertama ini. Tahniah diucapkan kepada NAMLIFA atas inisiatif untuk menganjurkan program khusus bagi para ejen takaful buat julung kalinya. Forum seumpama ini penting bagi menyediakan platform untuk pertukaran idea, pengalaman dan pandangan antara pakar-pakar industri dan agen takaful. The future seems to be a favourite theme at various forums nowadays. Today’s is no exception, and rightly so. In a time of rapid, successive change, it is crucial that we seek to understand the underlying currents shaping our future. Just as important is where we see ourselves in that same future. There is a quote from Soren Kierkegaard, a Danish philosopher, that offers a practical advice on this matter: “Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards.” Therefore, while we contemplate the forces of change and challenges of today, this must be coupled by action and determination to change for tomorrow. We need to be prepared for the future. Otherwise, we may become irrelevant. While agents are a formidable force in the insurance and takaful industry today, there is no certainty that this will be the case going forward.

An Accenture survey revealed that aggregators account for 70% of new business premiums in the UK private automobile insurance market. Indeed, two product aggregators platforms are already operating within Bank Negara Malaysia’s Regulatory Sandbox. The Bank is reviewing the regulatory framework to enable the aggregators to operate by the end of this year. 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  These are headwinds that the industry has to tackle head-on, and like it or not, they will further intensify. While we cannot stop these changes, we can certainly choose how we respond to it. With challenges are opportunities. These can only be reaped through a combination of traits – greater proactiveness, a willingness to adapt and clear strategic thinking. I do not doubt that this is much harder than it sounds, but I believe a good place to start would be focusing on three priorities. Allow me to elaborate on each in turn. Technology that matters The vision for the life insurance and family takaful industry is to achieve a penetration rate of 75% of the Malaysian population. Within this, the takaful industry has set a 25% target to be achieved by 2020. For this to happen, it is crucial that the industry gets to grips with the shift in market demographics, especially where interactions with technological platforms are concerned. It is imperative that agents embrace technology. A 2017 study 1 by Bain & Company indicates that nearly 60% of insurance customers in Malaysia are digitally active.
The cause of this recession—a global pandemic—means that our economic future will be determined in large part by the path of the virus. It’s impossible to know exactly how and when workers and businesses will be fully back to work and when consumers will return to the businesses that are open. Despite the uncertainty, I’m going to spend some time today discussing what the scale of the challenge looks like for New York State, and for the U.S. economy as a whole. I’m also going to outline the Federal Reserve System’s response. The Fed is well-known for setting interest rates. But we play a number of other roles, and have a key responsibility for ensuring that the financial system is working to support the economy, which has been crucial during this crisis. Before I continue, let me give the Fed disclaimer that the views I express are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee or anyone else in the Federal Reserve System. A Diverse State One of the particular strengths of New York State is its diversity—and this is especially true from an economic perspective. In Western and Central New York there are top-tier universities, manufacturing businesses, a thriving professional services industry, as well as popular tourist destinations. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the declining population trend in Upstate New York of earlier decades had largely stabilized. In recent years, new businesses had sprung up and unemployment had fallen to historic lows.

This is anything but a typical recession, and it has called for a new set of measures to address the economic consequences of the virus. Amid all the change we’re experiencing, you can be assured of one thing: our unwavering commitment to limit the economic damage from the pandemic and foster conditions for a strong and sustained recovery. 1 See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement, March 3,  2020; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement, March 15, 2020. 2 See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement, April 29,  2020. 3 See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Announces Extensive New Measures  to Support the Economy, March 23, 2020.
Sound and robust risk data aggregation capabilities and risk reporting practices have become even more important since the global financial crisis, which demonstrated that an institution’s ability to manage risk-related data has a significant impact on its overall risk profile and the sustainability of its business model, especially under stress conditions. The presence of board members with IT expertise has increased significantly in banks, allowing them to be more aware of this shortcoming and to make better-informed decisions to implement an effective RDAR framework across the institution. Additionally, some institutions have invested in strengthening their processes, by including dynamic dashboards in risk reports, which allow for a deeper dive into several types of risk. In conclusion, although it has been in the supervisory spotlight for several years, awareness of the benefits of good risk data management has shown limited progress in institutions. Thus, the accuracy and timeliness of internal reporting still needs to be improved, as not doing so will limit management bodies’ ability to make the right strategic decisions. Conclusion The board’s oversight role is one of the core elements of good governance. Adequate skills, challenge and independence are three factors that ensure good governance of our institutions, and it is therefore helpful if both their business model and their risk management are geared towards making them robust and profitable. 5

A two-stage strategy was proposed. The first stage is the current flexible inflation targeting. The second stage consists of monitoring credit developments and asset prices and, in special cases, overruling the signals given by the first stage. This is in line with the reasoning above. Statements by the Monetary Policy Committee in the Bank of England last autumn are an example of the emphasis placed on risk factors for future economic developments. In the minutes of the meeting on 9-10 October 2002, the Committee pointed to the build-up of financial imbalances as a factor which implied that the interest rate should be kept unchanged rather than reducing it. Considerable work remains before the available indicators of financial imbalances can be regarded as satisfactory. High credit growth or sharp rises in asset prices alone do not necessarily pose a threat to financial stability. Research conducted by the BIS has shown that periods of strong credit growth, a  3  See, for example, Borio, English and Filardo (2002): "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy? ", BIS Working Papers No. 127. BIS Review 25/2003  5  rise in asset prices and a high level of investment will almost always put pressures on the financial 4 system. Earlier banking crises may provide some indication of where the critical levels are. The IMF has shown that bubbles that burst in the housing market lead to a financial crisis more often 5 than stock market bubbles.
For example, they suggest that viewing risk through the lens of a single layer is likely to provide a significantly distorted picture of the true risk distribution,  3  Which are based on one million replications of the data generating process. 4  Technically, this is done using the so-called Gaussian copula. 5  With zero correlation between the two distributions, Chart 1a would be a set of concentric circles. 6  The t-distribution has fatter tails than the normal. In the simulations, we assume 5 degrees of freedom. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  with the probability of tail events materially under-estimated. As an example of that, Chart 1f looks at the unconditional and conditional distributions of one of the sub-systems in Chart 1c. The conditional distribution is conditioned on outcomes in the second layer lying in the lower half of the distribution. A risk manager looking at the unconditional distribution (a single layer perspective) would significantly under-estimate the true tail risk they were facing. This has direct parallels with the pre-crisis situation, when the actions of individual risk managers at banks, and individual supervisors of those banks, ignored the role of systemic risk when gauging individual firm risk. This led to a material under-estimation of individual firm risk. The micro-prudential microscope was wrongly focussed. Ignoring a layer, or sub-system, is likely to be equally distorting. That can be seen by comparing the risk distributions in Chart 1d (two layers) and 1e (three layers).

Conclusion For today, just bear in mind that the Fed is doing its utmost to be an enlightened regulator of your banks. For the economy as a whole, there is abundant liquidity to finance economic expansion, and the FOMC will assure that it remains affordable as long as the prospect of inflation rising above its 2 percent target remains in abeyance. It is too early to say that the economy can declare laissez les bon temps rouler. But for you bankers in this audience today, you might be forgiven if you kick up your heels a little bit while you are in New Orleans … though the curmudgeonly old Fed will be watching to make sure that for its part, you don’t let things get out of hand. Thank you, Drake. Thank you all. Now, in the best tradition of central banking, I would be happy to avoid answering any questions you have. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches
A No Deal outcome would result in an immediate, material reduction in the supply capacity of the UK economy as well as a negative shock to demand. There is little monetary policy can do to offset the former. A major negative supply shock is extremely unusual in advanced economies – the last one was the 1970s oil shock, even if the possibility of the next one is brewing in the Twittersphere. Given the exceptional circumstance associated with Brexit, the MPC would use the flexibility in its remit to support our economy’s transition as much as possible. But there are clearly limits to our ability to do so. The MPC can stretch the horizon over which it returns inflation to target but it would never do so to the point of breaking. The possibility that Brexit would lower the equilibrium interest rate and therefore the stimulus provided at a given level of Bank Rate reinforces this point. In the UK as in other advanced economies, if there is a 13  These moves in betting odds are consistent with financial market indicators of No Deal risk, such as the skew in the option-implied distribution for sterling. 14 Since the referendum, UK-focused equity prices have underperformed the FTSE-100 by around 25 percentage points and the S&P by some 45 percentage points. Sterling has hovered some 15-20% below its November 2015 peak.

This multiplier lies between the estimates published by the Fed for the two variants of their FRB/US model: one in which expectations are formed using a VAR and the other in which they are model consistent. In the former, a 1 percentage point shock to the federal funds rate boost GDP by around ¾%; in the latter, the same shock boosts GDP by around 1½%. 12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  12  That seems a bit extreme, since the US and China are far less closely integrated through trade, financial and labour market linkages than are the UK and the EU. For example, 45% of the UK’s trade is with the EU, while under 20% of the US’s trade is with China and only 7% of China’s trade is with the US. It is possible that concerns about still-quiescent inflation in major economies and the related risk of a global liquidity trap are contributing to the recent large moves in interest rates. In the US, core PCE inflation fell back below the FOMC’s 2% target earlier this year. In the euro area, core inflation has been hovering around 1% for much of the past five years. For both economies, market measures of long-term inflation expectations have drifted down over the past year (Chart 10).