samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It is therefore necessary for the payment system and credit markets to function so we can carry out our monetary policy tasks efficiently. Financial stability is thus a necessary condition for efficient monetary policy. As I have said on an earlier occasion, our task of safeguarding financial stability is in some ways like taking care of an electricity network. Most people give it very little thought until there is a power failure. But since last autumn one can say that there have been severe disruptions in the network and numerous measures have been required to keep the electricity flowing. Although there are some indications that the crisis is not as acute now as it was last autumn, many markets would probably not be functioning if the authorities in various countries were not regularly taking measures to promote financial stability. The effects of the crisis are also still affecting the situation for monetary policy and access to credit in the economy. Although the spread between Swedish mortgage rates and risk-free securities such as government bonds has declined since the most intensive phase of the crisis, households are for instance still facing slightly higher interest rates than normal if they want to fix their mortgage rates at longer periods. The financial crisis may also result in declining access to credit. Many companies in the Riksbank’s company survey state, for instance, that they are finding it difficult to borrow at longer maturities. The financial crisis has also contributed to a fall in equity and house prices.

Let me go back a little way to 18 September last year when the market for treasury bills was put on hold. I spoke that day with the Director General of the Swedish National Debt Office, Bo Lundgren, with whom I worked during my time at the Swedish Bank Support Authority in the 1990s. It was not without some feelings of déjà vu. But at the same time I felt then – and still feel – confident that a lot of things are different. That is, better! Of course we are an export-dependent economy and of course economic activity abroad looks worse than it did at the beginning of the 1990s. The effects of the global financial crisis contribute to considerable uncertainty and also make the situation very difficult to assess. One example of this is the economic downturn and adjustment the Baltic countries still have to work their way through, something that of course affects the Swedish banks with operations there. But there is on the other hand a lot in our favour. We do not have a "homemade” bank crisis now as we did at the beginning of the 1990s. Swedish banks have on the whole been much more responsible in granting credit, compared with the lending merry-go-  6  BIS Review 23/2009  round that followed the deregulation of the credit markets in the 1980s. We have not entered into an economic downturn with an economy that it out of balance, as we did then.
Governments, perhaps governments everywhere, are probably behind the pace of integration that the market is driving in terms of further integration. This should provide a powerful incentive for greater speed and ambition in developing the institutional infrastructure that can accommodate the challenges that come with integration. Overall, however, the direction of change in the emerging world seems fundamentally reassuring. After a crisis that was in a sense the result of a failure to manage the early stage of financial integration, governments in emerging markets have established a record of credible fiscal and monetary policy management, built more substantial cushions of insurance against potential shocks in external reserves, restructured the currency denomination, maturity and composition of their debts to make them less vulnerable to volatility, and begun to build deeper and stronger domestic financial systems. These changes make it more likely that the progress now underway toward further financial integration - as they move to more open capital markets and more flexible exchange rate systems - will bring substantial benefits in terms of growth and fewer risks in terms of financial stress. The stronger foundation now in place will make the next wave of financial integration more successful. The policy achievements of the last decade are enormously consequential for the people who live in emerging markets. If the progress is sustained, the reduced vulnerability to financial crisis and the enhanced efficiency of resource allocation have the potential to dramatically increase long-run growth and living standards in these countries.

Despite this progress, the causes and implications of the crises remain the subject of contentious debate. In fact, if you'd fallen asleep in early or late 1998, and awakened in the IMF boardroom yesterday, you would find officials discussing many of the same questions. Were the crises the result of fundamental economic and financial weakness at the national level, or the result of forces largely beyond the control of governments in emerging market economies? Can small open economies grow and prosper with open capital markets and floating exchange rates? Did moral hazard induced by the success of the Mexican package earlier in the decade cause the buildup in lending that led to crises that followed? Did the initial response of the IMF and its creditors make the crises worse? What level of insurance, in the form of reserves or debt structure, is adequate to protect against crises? How should the IMF differentiate between conditions of illiquidity and insolvency, and decide when it should help a member country restructure its debt obligations? Even among people who probably agree on the most important issues in economics and finance, you can still find stark differences in their answers to these questions. The diversity in the circumstances of the countries involved, and in the policy responses adopted, makes it easier for people to find evidence to support fundamentally different views.
The need for directors to possess this blend of technical knowledge plus independence is critical, given the increased complexity of most banking activities and the rapid pace of change in financial markets and practices. Getting the right balance of expertise and independence so that the board does not rubber-stamp the decisions of top management is a major challenge. Now, turning to Saudi Arabia, as the Central Bank and the Banking Supervisory Authority, SAMA has played a leadership role in strengthening corporate governance in the banking industry in Saudi Arabia since its establishment. You may be surprised to learn that as early as 1981, SAMA issued a document entitled "Powers and Responsibilities of the Board of Directors of Commercial Banks in Saudi Arabia". This document, in a comprehensive manner, guided the Board members on compliance to Banking Control and Company Laws, required the implementation of a system of accounting and internal controls and assigned the Board the responsibility for monitoring the assets and liabilities, investments and profitability of the bank. This was followed by a guidance document in 1996 on the role of the Audit Committee of the Board. This document in substantial detail provided guidance to the Banks on the composition, mandate, role and responsibilities of their Audit Committees. In 2004, SAMA issued another important circular affecting the Bank Directors and Senior Managers entitled: "Qualifications and Requirements for Appointments to Senior Positions in  2  BIS Review 83/2007  Banks licensed in Saudi Arabia".

When market participants obtain timely, accurate, realistic and latest information about the institution's performance, their investment and credit decisions can be a means of pressure and incentives for managers and boards of directors for managing their risks soundly. Equally important, the same market participants can penalize firms that fail to manage their risks soundly. Therefore, market discipline must be supported by adequate public disclosure and compliance with sound accounting standards. Knowing a company's risk appetite and its approach and methodologies for managing risk is essential to assessing the institution's future. Progress in the disclosure area, however, requires that accounting standards are enhanced to ensure proper valuation and to reflect innovations, in terms of both new products and modern risk management techniques. Accounting systems serve a variety of purposes, the most prominent of which is helping creditors and investors make rigorous and informed decisions as to which enterprises meet the market needs in terms of efficiency, competitiveness, and profitability. Sound accounting systems also enable investors in assessing the real financial value of enterprises. The systems also assist in attracting capital, both foreign and domestic. Looking ahead, I believe that a major challenge for directors and executive management is to find directors who are sufficiently independent but still knowledgeable about the business of the financial institution. Independence reflects qualities of objectivity, experience, insight, and force of character.
Today I would like to talk a bit about what went wrong, where we are today, some new initiatives that are underway, what lessons we should take from the crisis and some steps we need to take so this doesn’t happen again. It is well-recognized that one important catalyst for this financial crisis was the easy credit and loose underwriting practices that fueled the boom in the U.S. housing sector. The ability of virtually anyone to get a loan to buy a house pushed up home prices significantly faster than incomes. To keep the boom going, underwriting standards were progressively relaxed, but even with that support to demand, inevitably the boom proved unsustainable. As the boom reversed and housing prices began to fall, the bad underwriting practices and the mispricing of risk became readily apparent. When prices are rising no one needs to default, they always have the option of refinancing or selling the house at the now higher price. But when prices are dropping, there is no easy way out. The result has been a sharp rise in delinquencies and foreclosures as the bust has played out. The fact that these poorly underwritten loans were used in the construction of very complex collateralized debt obligations or CDOs, with risks that were not well understood and grossly mispriced – made a bad situation even worse.

New forecasts have not been prepared for this monetary policy meeting, but we have assessed new information against the forecasts we presented in March. Chart 3: International inflation has slowed Inflation among trading partners is also high but has eased in many countries in recent months. Gas and power prices have come down from the very high levels seen last year. Problems at some US and Swiss banks led to large movements in financial markets in March. Global equity indexes have risen since the March Report, and bond risk premiums have fallen. US and European households and firms appear to be finding it more difficult to obtain loans. Chart 4: The krone has depreciated High inflation has prompted central banks in many countries to raise policy rates quickly and more than in Norway. The Norwegian krone has depreciated in recent months and  1/2  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  is now at its weakest level since the onset of the pandemic in spring 2020. The krone is weaker than we projected in March. Activity in the Norwegian economy is high. Household consumption has continued to increase despite high inflation and higher interest rates. The employment rate is high and employment has risen further so far this year. The labour market is tight. Economic growth has nevertheless slowed recently. Unemployment moved a little higher in April, and the number of job postings has declined. Chart 5: Wage growth has risen The tight labour market has led to a pick-up in wage growth.
Over the years, the risk areas and thus the scope of regulations to prevent the use of the financial system as a conduit for illegal and other undesirable activities that can pose threats to global security have also increased. From money laundering to terrorist financing, the regulations and standards are being extended to comprehensively address new and emerging threats. This is evident in the ongoing review of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) 40+9 Recommendations, where among others, several policy goals and initiatives for combating corruption, and addressing proliferation financing more effectively, are being thoroughly discussed and deliberated. A major development in the review of the standards, that is relevant to the industry, is the higher emphasis that will be placed on assessing the effectiveness of measures implemented to counter the risks of money laundering and terrorist financing, rather than merely looking at technical compliance. This is indeed very relevant to the theme of this year’s conference “Raising the Bar in Compliance and Enforcement”. As Malaysia’s AML/CFT regime grows in maturity, the benchmark for compliance by financial institutions will be measured more in terms of its effectiveness in deterring and preventing financial crimes before they occur, and in effectively supporting the relevant law enforcement agencies to bring the perpetrators to justice when such crimes happen, despite our best efforts.

It is our hope this and other similar platforms will foster greater collaboration and sharing of ideas among the industry, compliance practitioners, regulators, law enforcement agencies and other relevant stakeholders and further contribute towards the enhancement of our framework and initiatives to combat financial crimes and preserve our financial and macro-economic stability. With that, I wish to thank you for your kind attention and wish you a productive conference. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
But in reforming our pension system, it is important to separate two issues. First, how should we pay for the cost of present pension commitments? Second, what is the right structure for our pension system: which risks should be borne individually and which collectively? A debate is needed over whether present arrangements imply too much or too little sharing of risk. We should remember also that insurance is based on ignorance - ignorance of the outcomes facing each individual. But knowledge can turn risk into certainty. The advent of genetic testing could undermine a private market in insurance against longevity and illhealth. Even if insurance companies could not require testing as a condition of insurance, the fact that tests were available could increase even further the degree of adverse selection in such insurance markets. Pooling risks caused by unequal genetic inheritance might no longer be feasible. Insurance would become instead a question about redistribution, and hence a matter for public policy. 6. Conclusions  In this lecture I have stressed that most public policy decisions are a matter of the balance of risks. There is no certainty. Indeed, it is the illusion of certainty that undermines much public debate. As Bertrand Russell said, “The whole problem of the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts”. Recognising and modelling risks means understanding the limits to our present knowledge. Communicating risk is about transparency.

The fact that few data on sexual behaviour were available was not a good reason for focusing on demographic variables - the researchers were looking for the key under the lamp-post rather than where it fell. Quantitative models are obviously essential to explain empirical evidence. But the idea of a single comprehensive model, whether of a population or an economy, which can capture all the relevant features to explain all phenomena is an illusion.10 There is no substitute for thinking about the underlying process which is generating the data. Robert May’s article “Uses and Abuses of Mathematics in Biology”, published earlier this year, should be compulsory reading for anyone involved in public policy. In pointing to the dangers of models so complex that intuition is impossible, he writes, “It makes no sense to convey a beguiling sense of ‘reality’ with irrelevant detail, when other equally important factors can only be guessed at. … Remember Einstein’s dictum: ‘models should be as simple as possible, but not more so’” (May, 2004). In many areas, successful public policy depends on a quantitative analysis of risks by experts and researchers. It is important that the general public understand that such assessments are only judgments. To enhance confidence in those judgments experts need to engage in a debate among themselves about what they know and what they do not know.
Jean-Pierre Landau: Rebalancing the world economy – a common challenge Keynote address by Mr Jean-Pierre Landau, Second Deputy Governor of the Bank of France, at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Economic Forum, Beijing, 11 November 2010. * * * In preparing those remarks, I was very influenced by the works by Ricardo Caballero and Raghuram Rajan (see references) among others. All interpretations and errors are mine. Great changes are taking place in the world economy. The center of gravity is moving to Asia and the emerging world. This has been recognized in the landmark agreement on IMF reform reached at the last G20 Ministerial meeting. China has become the IMF’s third shareholder, India has moved up by five ranks and Brazil is now on par with Canada (a G7 country). Symmetrically, the European representation in the Board will be reduced by the equivalent of two chairs (out of nine currently held). At the same time, we are facing great challenges. Output is growing fast in emerging economies but this relative shift in production has not been fully matched by a rebalancing in demand. Overall, beyond the turbulences caused by “hot money”, net capital flows are going “uphill” from emerging to developed economies. That means that some of the poorest citizens of the world are lending money to some of the richest, allowing those to finance their consumption. And financial bubbles have tended to proliferate in an environment of permanently low inflation and ample liquidity.

The high degree of uncertainty militates against ambitious fine-tuning of the economy but favours focusing on the main task of monetary policy, which is maintaining price stability. Moreover, uncertainty necessitates broad-based and impartial analysis as well as judgment and flexibility in monetary policy decision-making. BIS Review 5/2008  1
This is part of the priorities of the members of the Joint Committee on Climate Change over the next 12 months to pave the way for the adoption of disclosure standards by the industry in the immediate future3. This will not only contribute towards lowering information asymmetry, but will also assist external stakeholders to hold financial institutions to account for their climate risk commitments. Leveraging Malaysia’s value offering – opportunities in sukuk  2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  The capital market can play a critical role to address the financing gaps not only in green, but social and sustainable sectors. The SRI Roadmap for the Malaysian Capital Market issued in November last year aims to create a facilitative SRI ecosystem and chart the role of the capital market in driving Malaysia’s sustainable development. The sukuk market, which is a high growth segment in Islamic finance, has an important role in supporting the growth of the green technology sector. Malaysia continues to be at the forefront of green sukuk, which is the preferred mode of investment for those that prefer investments with a positive environmental impact. We can certainly tap into the sukuk market to fund activities or technologies that support a low-carbon and climate resilient society. Conclusion I am not asking us to reinvent capitalism at this conference – there is simply not enough time for that if we are to meet our Paris Agreement commitment!

Goh Chok Tong: Staying ahead of the Asian curve Speech by Mr Goh Chok Tong, Senior Minister of the Republic of Singapore and Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at Barclays Asia Forum, Singapore, 1 November 2007. *  *  *  I extend a warm welcome to all of you, especially to those who have not come to Singapore in recent years. I would also like to thank Barclays for organising this Asia Forum as well as this weekend’s Singapore Open. I hope the Singapore Open will grow in prestige as you expand your presence in Singapore and Asia. Singapore’s economic growth rates in the past few years have surprised many, including ourselves. We did not expect to be able to consistently achieve growth rates of above 6% per annum as we are a mature economy. Yes, we have remade our economy but the good growth was also due to the buoyant world economy and a surging Asia. Singapore’s future growth will depend not only on our own efforts but also on our ability to anticipate trends in our external environment and stay ahead of the curve. This morning, I would like to share with you how we see developments in Asia and the challenges before us. Political outlook Let me start with the political outlook. I believe that Asia will remain stable and the regional environment conducive to growth. Post-9/11, the world had to adjust to new insecurities posed by terrorism.