samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Although we are in the fourth year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which triggered the turmoil on the global financial markets, the ripples of which we still evidence, the Bulgarian banking sector continues to stand out with its stability and predictability. Irrespective of the unfavourable general economic situation, the banks in this country demonstrated flexibility and operational efficiency, enabling them to preserve significant capital and liquidity buffers. Although loan portfolio quality deteriorated (as of end-2011 the share of bad loans was 14.93%), the banking sector continues to have at its disposal adequate degree of provisioning and capital protection. The sum of loan impairment according to the International Financial Reporting Standards, specific provisions for credit risk and capital surplus (i.e. the capital in the system in excess of the required regulatory minimum) amounts to 103% of the gross amount of bad loans. Notwithstanding the considerable increase of provisioning costs in the recent three years, the banking system has  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  never stopped generating positive financial results which increase the capital buffer. And in the cases of shortage or lack of profit in an institution, the BNB exercised supervisory pressure on shareholders to invest additional capital. Today our banking sector enjoys extremely high indicators (including compared to international practices) of liquidity (25.87% as of February this year) and capital adequacy (17.53% as of December last year, including 15.74% Tier 1 capital adequacy), without counting a single lev of public funds in calculating these ratios, at that.

Since one of the banks’ major tasks still is to strengthen their loan portfolios, the slower growth rate of the economy and the slower improvement in the economic profile of some categories of clients would force banks to look for new niches for business. This may lead to greater specialisation in certain types of services and to more intense competition for every new client. I would like to point out that the increased competition does not exclude the need for you to keep up a high level of correctness in your relations with one another and with your clients. While the bank services market is getting saturated, consumers’ awareness is being raised. The stronger competition in the banking sector also promotes new approaches in the dealings with clients1. One possible room for competition between credit institutions is, for instance, the transparency and predictability of structuring, and especially of pricing, their products and services. One should work more for the benefit of clients, adopting a more individual approach to those facing difficulties, summing up and analysing the experience gained and drawing conclusions that could be put to good use in new and better banking practices. The happy client is the cheapest advertising for the bank. The work done in each of the above problematic areas allows for a more active presence – at an expert level and in the public area – both of the individual banks’ representatives and of the ABB as their legitimate and highly reputable association.
Specifically, in situations of high uncertainty like the present, the lack of information on asset quality and loss provisioning may lead investors to believe that the situation is much worse than it actually is. It is in the interest of deposit institutions to inform the market of how their business is being affected by the crisis and of their short- and medium-term strategy for dealing with the situation, stating explicitly their level of risk by business segment and the provisions set aside for that risk. But it is not only private institutions which have to do their homework; regulators and legislators have an obligation to amend national law so as to allow or help private institutions to adapt to the new international regulatory environment. An example of this in the case of Spain is the need to change our legislation on the own funds of savings banks so that these singular institutions can comply with the exacting capital quality requirements which will be imposed by the new global regulation. Welcome news in this respect is the Government’s announcement that it will soon propose new legislation to address this problem, the resolution of which is crucial for a significant part of our financial system. *** Let me finish with a medium-term consideration of particular concern to me, which is only on the margins of the agenda for global regulatory change. I refer to the availability of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the new banking universe which will emerge following all these regulatory changes.

Mojmír Hampl: Should non-euro area countries welcome the banking union? Speech by Mr Mojmír Hampl, Vice Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the Europolis Conference “Auf dem Weg zu mehr Stabilität”, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, 5 April 2013. *  *  *  My remarks today focus on non-euro area countries’ attitude to the SSM (Single Supervisory Mechanism), as it is the key part of what is called the banking union (BU) which is “almost” finalized. Let me start with a statement that the so-called BU is currently only an emerging concept. We are very far from the final version and it is difficult to guess what the final outcome might be. Nevertheless, what we get in the end will be critical for the position of non-euro area countries. So, what is it all about? The proposed BU is based on four/five pillars, or “legs”: a.  CRD IV – the Capital Requirements Directive, or single rules  b.  SSM, or the Single Supervisory Mechanism under the ECB  c.  Single resolution and recovery mechanisms a rules  d.  A single system of deposit guarantees  e.  Finally, a fiscal back-up through the ESM  Problems emerge immediately, because each pillar is at a different stage of negotiation and approval, involves different rules of approval and, more importantly, so far each applies to a different group of countries: a. The ESM already exists.
Another new possibility is a payment transfer via telephone conducted between accounts with payment service providers where a mobile telephone number is indicated instead of an account number, based on a technology that allows linking the telephone number to the IBAN account number. This service is also already offered on the Bulgarian market. All this follows the trend of increased usage of mobile payment solutions in Europe. Open banking The new payment initiation and account information services, regulated by the Second Payment Services Directive, create conditions for implementing the so-called ‘open banking’. This allows the entry of new participants in the payments market and the development of innovative services as well as value-added customer solutions. In order to comply with the regulatory requirements, the banks in Europe, including those in Bulgaria, preferred to choose the development of dedicated interfaces, known as ‘application programming interfaces’ or ‘APIs’, to the possibility of modifying their client interfaces for access. The advantages of dedicated interfaces are considerable – they have a higher degree of security, speed and are capable of accepting a large number of simultaneous requests. However, the use of dedicated interfaces also presents a great deal of challenges – their development is a costly and complicated process which requires coordination between various units of the banks, their external developers, and the providers of the new services. Main priority is ensuring the security of the processes, without compromising their functionality.

The first authorised in Bulgaria providers of the two new payment services started their activities in 2020. In conclusion, we can sum up that the trends in Europe are related to the development of a single European payments infrastructure based on common standards and instruments, aiming to ensure a pan-European scope and reach. Instant payments, which are in a process of introduction also in Bulgaria, open banking, and the increasing use of mobile technologies are topical issues both in the country and in the European Union, issues that we will continue to talk about. The payment services in Bulgaria are evolving in line with the dynamic processes in Europe, gathered around digitalisation, new technologies, and the ensured security of the payment process. 1 Contactless Payments on consumer off-the-shelf devices (COTS) and Software Based PIN Entry on COTS 2 Payment Card Industry Security Standards Council (PCI SSC) 3 Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2018/389 of 27 November 2017 supplementing Directive (EU)  2015/2366 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for strong customer authentication and common and secure open standards of communication (RTS on SCA and CSC) 4 www.eba.europa.eu/regulation-and-policy/payment-services-and-electronic-money/eba-working-group-on-apis-  under-psd2 5 Opinion of the European Banking Authority on obstacles under Article 32(3) of the RTS on SCA and CSC 6 www.eba.europa.eu/single-rule-book-qa  3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
Nevertheless, the developments in the twin deficits (the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit) are a cause for concern, as they signal exactly the abovepotential growth of economic activity at present, which may jeopardise medium-term financial stability. The expansionary fiscal policy pursued starting with 2016, by applying the 2015 Tax Code, has carried on in 2017, causing the fiscal space gained in 2010-2015 to be exhausted (Figure 23). The current account deficit-to-GDP ratio, though well below its pre-crisis levels, has posted divergent developments from those in the other EU emerging economies (Figure 24). The structural deficit significantly exceeded the 1 percent mediumterm objective in 2016 and is estimated to stand at 3.9 percent in 2017 (Figure 25). As a matter of fact, the European Commission has included Romania into the Significant Deviation Procedure from the medium-term objective. When actual GDP growth exceeds potential growth, it is recommended to make savings for fiscal consolidation reasons. Additional income from above-potential economic growth allows for the financing of extra spending in the short run only. Yet, this expenditure is of a permanent nature, while income is temporary, as it will decline, ceteris paribus, when the economy returns to normal (potential) growth rates. Therefore, above-potential growth conceals a structural deficit larger than the cash deficit. Today’s structural deficit is, however, the cash deficit of tomorrow which will need to be financed under circumstances that may turn unfavourable for emerging economies.

The negative natural population growth has become significantly more pronounced over the last years, Romania reporting one of the highest values in the EU, while emigration is endemic. Furthermore, emigration also affects highskilled professions, such as those in the healthcare sector. Thus, pressures emerge that contribute to increasing tensions on macroeconomic equilibria and contain potential GDP growth. In order to mitigate risks to financial stability, the Report highlights a number of possible measures to (i) reduce the risk of public debt refinancing, also with the help of measures to further extend the maturity of debt instruments, (ii) align the structural deficit with the medium-term objective, (iii) enhance debtors’ capacity to withstand adverse developments, (iv) ensure the better targeting of the “First Home“ programme from a social perspective, (v) recapitalise the companies with net worth below the required threshold and review the market entry and exit conditions for firms, (vi) improve employment, lower the labour 8  underutilisation rate, also in what concerns regional disparities, and (vii) increase the legislative framework predictability. The National Bank of Romania monitors closely the evolution of risks to financial stability and seeks to mitigate the risk of household overindebtedness through the macroprudential policies it has adopted or prepares to adopt. Moreover, the NBR considers that debtors would be better protected in the medium run if they requested, to a larger extent, to enter fixed interest rate credit agreements.
Monetary policy normally operates by lowering key rates to reduce the real interest rate when expected inflation and market risk premiums are stable in the short term. When the key rate moves close to its lower bound, the real interest rate can still be influenced through key rate expectations, influencing risk premiums and anchoring inflation expectations. The expectations channel will be particularly important if the current key rate cannot be further reduced. For Norges Bank, the expectations channel is an established part of monetary policy in that we provide forecasts for the key policy rate. To sum up, it is useful to decompose the factors behind the change in the interest rate path since 17 December 2008. The interest rate forecast in the Monetary Policy Report is lower than the forecast published in December last year. The outlook for global growth has deteriorated further. The slowdown in the Norwegian economy appears to be more pronounced than expected in December. Lower global and domestic demand would suggest a lower key policy rate than projected in December. Our inflation forecast, along with the stronger krone and lower key rate expectations abroad also suggests a lower key policy rate than projected at that time. 14  BIS Review 37/2009  Let me conclude. Monetary policy cannot fine-tune developments in the economy, but it can mitigate the largest effects when the economy is exposed to shocks. Overall, the outlook and the balance of risks suggest that the key rate should be gradually reduced further.

Or, alternatively, it assumes that the cost of moving policy more vigorously to create greater headroom above the zero lower bound is justified in risk management terms – that the cost of a tighter policy setting than required is justified by benefits of avoiding the risk of having to use exceptional policy tools at the lower bound. I have however seen little evidence in the UK that monetary has a consistently asymmetric impact in normal 20  times. As to the risk management argument, I do think the experience of the last 10 years shows that there are policy tools which, while not the primary instrument, remain available close to or at the zero bound. It was partly for this reason that the MPC’s recent statement on the unwinding of QE made clear that QE remained a weapon in the Committee’s armoury. 21  20  Such evidence that exists for other economies suggest the opposite is true – that monetary policy has greater impact when it is raised than when it is lowered. Tenreyro and Thwaites (2016) 21 As it stated in the June 2018 MPC minutes: In the event that potential movements in Bank Rate are judged insufficient to achieve the inflation target, the reduction in the stock of assets could be amended or reversed. 11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  11  A sharper tightening of policy has also been suggested to avoid financial stability risks.
In contrast to a “traditional” bank run, such as those that occurred during the 1930s,2 the run in the current crisis took the form of a large and sudden increase in collateral haircuts in the US repo market.3 If one plausibly estimates the size of the US repo market at $ trillion at the eve of the crisis, a 20% increase in haircuts led to a withdrawal of funds from the banking sector equivalent to $ trillion.4 Chart 4 provides an estimate of the increase in haircuts in the US market while Chart 5 displays the drop in overnight repo volume between March and December 2008.5 This run on the repo market had obvious implications for the ability of the banking sector to lend. The consequent dearth of liquidity in US dollars was felt throughout the world, in particular in Europe. It was the main reason for the swap agreements initiated by the Federal Reserve and a number of international central banks, including the SNB. The aim was to substitute central bank liquidity provision for the failing money market in US dollars, and was directed, particularly, at international market participants. In contrast to this account of the early phase of the financial crisis in the US, Chart 6 reports the evolution of the exchanged volumes in the Swiss secured and unsecured money markets.

One potential benefit of DLT-based structures is immediate clearing and settlement of securities, in contrast to the multiple-day lags that currently exist when exchanging cash for securities (and vice versa). Progress in this direction was recently achieved by a joint venture between the Deutsche Bundesbank and Deutsche Börse, which developed a functional prototype of a DLT based securities settlement platform that achieves delivery-versus-payment settlement of digital coins and securities (Deutsche Bundesbank (2016)). Whether or not a central bank should provide a digital alternative to cash is most pressing in 4/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  countries, such as Sweden, where cash usage is rapidly declining. But all central banks may eventually have to decide whether issuing CBCCs makes sense in their own context. In making this decision, central banks will have to consider not only consumer preferences for privacy and possible efficiency gains – in terms of payments, clearing and settlement – but also the risks it may entail for the financial system and the wider economy, as well as any implications for monetary policy. Some of the risks are currently hard to assess. For instance, at present very little can be said about the cyber-resilience of CBCCs, something not touched upon in this short feature. In this context, the current regulatory framework predate the emergence of FinTech companies. Therefore, it will certainly be changed and as a matter of fact it is already an evolving process in many countries, including Macedonia.
But monetary policy can alleviate the effects of the financial crisis on the economy. The Riksbank has also implemented monetary policy measures, largely as a result of the international financial crisis. In the space of just over two weeks, we cut the interest rate on two occasions, by a total of one percentage point, to 3.75 per cent. Rapid change in the situation when anxiety escalates in mid-September Normally, we raise or cut the repo rate in smaller steps and emphasise that it is a series of interest rate decisions and not one single interest rate adjustment that is important. When we raised the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at the beginning of September it still appeared as though the Swedish financial markets would be relatively spared from the effects of the financial turmoil then prevailing in the world markets. The majority assessment of the Executive Board was that inflationary pressures were too high for the economic downturn to bring inflation back to the target of 2 per cent quickly enough without a high interest rate. Of course, we did not know then that the international economic situation would soon look very different, although we were aware of both upside and downside risks. Just over a week later, investment bank Lehman Brothers suffered serious problems and filed for bankruptcy protection, in accordance with US bankruptcy legislation. The financial anxiety then escalated considerably. We were soon in a situation where the global financial crisis paralysed many credit markets.

Clearly, we cannot avoid all overlaps and even some differences between MAS’ regulations and exchanges’ rules in certain areas such as those relating to financial resources and business conduct requirements. This is in a way inevitable as MAS’ regulations have to cover all capital markets intermediaries regardless whether they are members of exchanges or not. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Exchanges, depending on the type of products that they offer, may need to impose differentiated requirements on different members depending on the assessment of product risks and credit worthiness of their members, which may or may not be regulated by MAS. Protocols on information sharing between MAS and exchanges’ SRO units will hence be mapped out. 30. At a broader level, we believe this change will lead to greater supervisory efficiency and better system-wide risk management. While exchanges will retain their regulatory responsibilities in terms of member supervision, their resources can be concentrated on the supervision of members with significant risk exposures on their respective exchange. This can include members which are not under MAS’ oversight such as those based overseas. Market surveillance 31. The MAS on our part will be enhancing our surveillance capabilities both within and across markets. The presence of multiple exchanges, each focused on its own markets, can give rise to blind spots as each exchange may not have the complete picture of common members’ exposure and activities. There are also certain markets such as in the OTC derivatives space that are not under the direct surveillance of exchanges. 32.
In line with the action time-span, this measure is considered to have been effective in signalising the commitment of the Bank of Albania to comply with its inflation target and keep inflation expectations under control. In addition, it kept unchanged the stimulating characteristic of the monetary policy and conditions as reflected in comparatively low interest rates, banking system ample liquidity and exchange rates favouring Albanian exports. Let me now focus on economic highlights defining the inflation performance as well as their expected development. In line with its past year’s performance, the expansion of the Albanian economy during the first and second quarters of 2011 relied mostly on the industry and services sectors growth. Owing to foreign demand, industrial output increased by 12.3% in annual terms, providing major contribution to the expansion of the economy in the first quarter. The services sector, topped by “Trade, hotels and restaurants”, continued to support economic growth, although less than last year’s quarters. This sector’s annual growth marked 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011. The services sector performance is closely connected to consumer spending performance, which I will address later. After five quarters of contraction, the construction sector posted annual growth of 4.6%, triggered by higher public investments during this period. Lastly, agriculture maintained growth and contribution rates similar to the last quarter of 2010. Indirect data obtained from business surveys and monetary indicators suggest that this performance is and will continue to be along the same lines even during the second quarter and beyond.

of rooms  2.5  2.0  1.5  1.0  0.5  0.0 BE IE LU UK MT DK ES FR CY FI DE SE NL AT EE PT CZ LT SI IT BG EL LV HU SK HR PL RO  Source: Eurostat  6  Figure 6. Population living in poor conditions percent 30  25  Total population having neither a bath, nor a shower, nor indoor flushing toilet in their household - 2015  20  15  10  5  0 RO LV BG LT EE HU PL HR PT CY SK DK EL UK FR AT SI FI BE CZ ES IE IT LU MT NL  Source: Eurostat  Figure 7. People at risk of poverty or social exclusion, % total population percent  Bulgaria  70  Czech Republic Hungary  60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  Source: Eurostat  7  Figure 8.