samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As various services and leisure activities – such as theatregoing, sports events and travel – were closed in waves, household demand switched to activities that could still be carried on despite the anti-epidemic measures and to goods that were previously not in such high demand, such as computers for working from home, and sports equipment, which people suddenly had much more time to use. Most of the items in high demand are of an industrial nature and are made in globally interconnected production chains. However, the changing anti-pandemic lockdowns are causing bottlenecks in international supplies of raw and semi-processed materials and in transport capacity. This is disrupting the overall production logistics and fuelling growth in prices of temporarily scarce items. As a result, we are now seeing robust growth in prices of many 6/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  tradables all around the world. This is being reflected in growth in foreign producer prices and ultimately in non-falling domestic inflation. Another interesting feature of the coronavirus crisis relates to savings. During a cyclical downturn, it is usual for households and firms to start creating precautionary savings for worse times. However, the lockdown of many activities, especially in services, has made it physically impossible for people to spend on such services, and their savings have been rising as a result. Once the lockdowns are lifted, these forced savings are expected to return to the market and help revive the currently dormant sectors.

Several of them have issued their own bills for this purpose, particularly where in the early years the finance ministry was reluctant to issue government paper. Whether the market being developed is in government, central bank or private paper, the central banks have had to strike a difficult balance in deciding how frequently to intervene in the markets. In the absence of intervention, a market can remain illiquid and unused. But if the central bank intervenes too much and holds prices too steady, then private market-makers will not develop. This dilemma is not unique to transition countries. Similar dilemmas arise elsewhere, and some western central banks still sometimes play a role, if only a marginal one, in balancing supply and demand in the domestic securities and foreign exchange markets. (iv) Payment and settlement systems One area of activity in which the new central banks do mirror the diversity of their western counterparts is in responsibility for payment and settlement systems. Of the nine central banks in central and eastern Europe, five operate the main clearing system themselves. In the other four countries the position is roughly as it is here, with the central bank participating BIS Review 33/1997  -8-  in, and providing final settlement for, a privately owned clearing system. In Russia the central bank has been slow to develop its own payment system, and commercial banks have been putting parallel mechanisms in place.
Besides the obvious economic crimes such as drug trafficking and corruption, governments also need to fight against economic and financial crimes in every other shape and form. Any type of such crimes can generate feelings of resentment about an unfair society, not just the drug trafficking cases. Stock price manipulation, insider trading, or tax evasion, which even though do not directly harm people's lives, can still make people feel slighted. This is especially so if these white-collar perpetrators are quite influential or are close friends with politicians or the administrations. In all these cases, the role model set by the government is the most important element in winning people's confidence that the government is truly and sincerely committed to fighting against economic and financial crimes. If the perpetrators are members of the government, swift and decisive actions taken against them will make society confident in the government's policy on this issue and thus encourage law enforcement officers to fearlessly do the right things. What I have been talking about so far concerns economic crimes within a country. Things get more complicated and much more difficult to combat when it comes to cross-border economic crimes. These require close cooperation of law enforcement authorities in every country. Today's United Nations Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice is a good example of the collaboration effort at the international level. To combat transnational crime, the willingness to collaborate is strong when authorities hold the same view on such crimes.

From this point of view, I welcome the six very important recommendation issued in April directed to supervisors, central banks and the financial sector: i) integrating climate-related risks into financial stability monitoring and supervision; ii) integrating sustainability factors into own-portfolio management; iii) bridging the data gaps ; iv) building awareness and intellectual capacity and encouraging technical assistance and knowledge sharing ; achieving robust and intentionally consistent climate and environment related disclosure ; vi) supporting the development of a taxonomy of economic activities. In the longer-run, when there will be a global convergence about the necessity to issue global standards and regulatory requirements, global standard setter such as the BCBS and FSB would need to take the lead on addressing climate change-related risks.12 1 Main  findings : Climate change: which risks for banks and insurers? acpr.banquefrance.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/as_cover_note_en.pdf Analysis and synthesis no. 102: “French insurers facing climate change risks” April 2019 acpr.banquefrance.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/as_102_climate_change_insurers_en.pdf  2 Analysis and synthesis no. 101, “French banking groups facing climate change-related risks”, April  2019acpr.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/as_101_climate_risk_banks_en.pdf  2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Hence, a compliance program was set up by the authorities with the aim of remedying this situation in the medium term. As regards personal data protection, Morocco has ratified the 108th Convention of the Council of Europe and its Additional Protocol. Since then, it set up a national control unit to ensure proper observation of the various rights (of information, access, rectification and opposition). In this respect, the central bank plays an important role as an interface between this unit and financial inclusion stakeholders. However, this legal framework is likely to evolve in view of the regulatory progress made in this area, particularly at the European Union level. With regard to cyber security risks, Morocco is moving towards developing a strategy for the security of information systems, which would be based on  5  risk identification to provide specific legal, technical and awareness-raising measures to ensure protection, defense and security. This project is coordinated by the National Defense Administration and the Central Bank also acts as an interface with financial actors. All these developments, particularly the introduction of new actors in the implementation of the national financial inclusion strategy, will have a significant impact on banks' profitability and will put their traditional business models to the test. While these banks may be hampered by their complex architecture and cumbersome organization, the rapid unbundling of banking services to the benefit of non-banking fintechs could result in a substantial loss in their market share.

Thus, in 2013, we set up the Moroccan Foundation for Financial Education, and introduced, in the 2014 Banking Law, payment institutions with a scope of activity limited to small-value transactions. As a result, several stakeholders  2  took various and disparate initiatives, which prompted us to federate them to develop a National Financial Inclusion Strategy. To this end, we proceeded from a situation analysis based on objective supply and demand data, which were collected through field surveys, mainly the Findex survey conducted by the World Bank in several countries. The paradoxical finding which emerged is that, based on indicators such as credit or deposit-to-GDP ratios or the FSAP assessment, Morocco’s financial system proves to be deep if compared internationally, but suffers from significant inequalities in terms of access. To give you some figures, the share of adults holding an account is estimated by the Findex survey at 34 percent at the national level. This proportion ranges from 20 percent in rural areas to 37 percent for urban dwellers, from 17 percent for women to 41 percent for men and from 16 percent for young people under 25 to 33 percent for those aged 25 and over. Based on these data, it became clear that priority should be given to targeting the most disadvantaged groups in order to reduce the gaps.
On the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee the nine members debate among themselves our current state of knowledge of the  7  The data in Chart 5 are for occupational pension holders of Actuarial Profession member institutions. These individuals are typically wealthier than the rest of the population, and for that reason tend to live longer. 8  Peterman et. al. (1988) found that the probability of infecting a partner was unrelated to the number of sexual acts with that partner. 9  The large models made the further simplifying assumption that the rate took one of only two values. In fact, it varies widely among the population. Robert May, and his colleague Roy Anderson, showed that a key driver of the proportion of the population eventually infected was the “variance of the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners”. Simulations of the proportion of the population ultimately infected with AIDS are sensitive to that variance, and plausible differences in the number of their partners among different people changed the estimate of the proportion likely to be infected from 25% to 90%. 10  Many non-economists believe that economists use a single “model” to explain all economic phenomena. Hence the interest of many commentators in “the model” that is alleged to generate the forecasts of inflation and economic growth published by the Bank of England. But, as we never cease pointing out, the Bank uses not one but many models to help us understand particular aspects of economic behaviour.

Chart 8 constructs a fan chart for female life expectancy at birth in the United Kingdom derived from the latest forecast published by the Government Actuary’s Department. The width of the fan chart shows how forecasts of life expectancy are likely to change in the future, as new information and ideas about mortality evolve,  12  To understand the concept of independence consider the example of a church spire that is struck by lightning several times. Is this just coincidence (implied by the assumption that the strikes are independent of each other) or does the spire have certain characteristics that lead it to be struck regularly? Given our knowledge of spires and lightening the latter is more plausible. Similarly, there may be characteristics, genetic or other, and still largely unknown, that make particular families more likely to experience cot deaths than others. 13  Hill (2002) and (2004). See also Dawid (2004) and Eggleston (1978) for a discussion of the difficulties courts find with the concepts of conditional probability and Bayes’ theorem. 14  The forecast for inflation is based on the assumption that interest rates follow the path expected by financial markets over an average of the fifteen days prior to the finalisation of the Inflation report. 6  BIS Review 73/2004  causing forecasts to be revised - assuming that news about life expectancy arrives in the future at about the same rate as in the past.
This time limit applies only to the FROB’s competence to assist merger/SIP processes, not to processes of individual restructuring. At the present date, 38 of the 45 Spanish savings banks (39 including Cajasur, a credit institution awaiting a solution within the framework of the FROB) are involved in merger/SIP processes affecting 92% of savings bank assets. Of the 12 merger/SIP processes, seven are planned with FROB aid estimated at a total of about € billion, and the other five without government assistance. Also participating in one of these processes is Caja Castilla-La Mancha, a credit institution seized by the Banco de España which received total aid of € billion from the deposit guarantee fund (DGF). The merger/SIP plans of these 12 processes have already been authorised by the Banco de España or are at the authorisation stage, except in one case in which three credit institutions are participating in a project still under negotiation but which will not require FROB aid. The operations involving merger/SIP plans with FROB aid envisage cuts of 20–25% in the number of offices and of around 15% in staff, which gives an idea of the scale of the measures proposed to improve bank efficiency. The structure rationalisation measures are an indispensable requirement for receiving FROB aid and are being included naturally in the other planned voluntary operations, since these measures are responsive to the need to achieve more soundness, more efficiency and more economic rationality.

Islamic finance has grown by leaps and bounds, from only one Islamic financial institution three decades ago to over 300 today in more than 75 countries, including non-Islamic countries in Europe and the United States. The total assets of Islamic finance worldwide is estimated to exceed $ billion, and is growing at an estimated annual rate of 15 percent. Islamic finance has been transformed from a "nice to have" into a "must-have" system, evident by the growing number of jurisdictions allowing their financial institutions to offer Islamic financial services and increasing number of global financial players now offering Islamic financial services as part of their spectrum of services. Islamic finance continues to provide tremendous potential for growth and development due to a number of  BIS Review 13/2006  1  factors. These factors include the strong demand for Shariah-compliant financial services and transactions , the availability of a wider choice of products that meet consumers' discerning expectations, as well as growing acceptance of Islamic finance as a form of financial intermediation. In Malaysia, the advancement and progress that have been achieved in Islamic finance has demonstrated its potential as an effective form of financial intermediation that supports the needs of the economy. The industry has become a major contributor to the overall economic growth, with assets encompassing nearly 25% of the country's gross national product. This is a significant achievement considering the stiff competition offered by the conventional banking and insurance sectors. 5. The takaful industry in particular has shown remarkable growth.
And, in light of the central role of banking in our economic system, it also allows us to examine the conditioning factors of many decisions taken by bank debtors, i.e. by firms, households and governments over time. I therefore believe we should welcome a new publication which describes and identifies for the first time, in an orderly fashion, the contents of 10 different historical archives of banks or Spanish institutions and of the 218 documentary series they comprise. The publication also contains a full map of the development of the Spanish banking system from its origins until late 2017. Adding to it is the article by Pedro Tedde, which rigorously analyses the Spanish banking system during the twentieth century. A reading of the publication offers clues that the process of change has, with differing degrees of intensity, been continuous. Hence, while the current transformation in banking may have different causes and rhythms than those in the past, deep knowledge of previous events can also offer us significant lessons today on the challenges currently ahead of the Spanish financial system. In any event, the publication we present today is a good exponent of a long-standing tradition that has led the Banco de España to promote and sponsor economic history research, and to highlight the value of the documentary and bibliographical collection in our Historical Archives and in our Library. The list of eminent personalities from our central bank noted for their love of history and its study is a long one.

In recent years, both our central bank researchers and external researchers financed by us have been selected to present their papers. In this year’s edition, the conference has been jointly organised with the CEPR’s Economic History section. Secondly, since 2009, the Banco de España has had a biannual programme in place for economic history research grants. Under the programme, universities commit themselves, following an agreement signed with the Bank, to pursuing the research selected and to presenting and publishing their findings. The possibility of collaboration between researchers from both institutions is also envisaged. Since 1980, under the initial backing of Luis Ángel Rojo, the Bank has published a collection of monographs relating to monetary and financial history, Spanish and international alike, under the name “Economic History Studies” (more familiarly known as the “Red Series”). To date, this collection had solely included papers prepared or financed by the Banco de España. Currently, however, with a view to extending and maintaining its continuity, we are assessing opening it up to other research not necessarily financed by the Bank. To be added to the foregoing is all the sponsorship and funding activity of associations, universities and royal academies in the field of economic history. Actions of a differing nature and scope are involved, giving continuity to our long-standing and intense promotion work. I am particularly gratified to be able to share with you today my satisfaction at the recognition recently granted by the Spanish Economic History Association to the supportive work by the Banco de España.
However, it is often assumed that the monetary policy pursued by the American central bank (“the Fed”) has played a decisive part. The Fed’s policy during the last twenty years differ from the policy in the preceding period in their more active and determined use of monetary policy to keep inflation low and stable. As a result, it has been possible to avoid both the overheating and the recessions that often occur when an overheated economy suddenly comes to a halt. In other words, the Fed is credited with succeeding in making recessions fewer, smaller and shorter, mainly by ensuring that the economy does not become overheated. It is important to point out that the favourable trend in the US economy during the last twenty years is not, as you might gather from following the Swedish debate, due to the American central bank “leaning back” and basically letting the economy “take care of itself”. Quite the contrary, in fact. If we were to try to draw a lesson from all this that would be relevant to the Swedish context, it would mean that in future the Riksbank should try to avoid the great fluctuations in economic activity that were caused by the devaluation policy of the 1970s and 1980s. During those years there was a long succession of cost crises and exchange rates were adjusted so many times that in the end devaluations were virtually accepted as a fact of life.

However, the discussion in recent years has mainly focused on another reason why the central bank might want to keep an eye on asset price trends, and this is that the collapse of inflated asset markets can have a serious impact on the real economy and in some cases eventually threaten the stability of the financial system. Apart from protecting monetary value, which is perhaps their best-known function, it is also the task of central banks to promote financial stability, whether directly or indirectly. This is even suggested by the Swedish legislation, which lays down that the Riksbank shall seek to “promote a secure and effective payment system”. Dramatic events following the collapse of asset markets are usually assumed to be triggered by the consequences in the credit market and company balance sheets. When asset prices rise more than economic fundamentals justify, a fall in prices is inevitable sooner or later. Such an adjustment can be very costly if financial institutions have widely accepted assets as collateral for loans during the period of rising asset prices. When there is a sudden sharp fall in prices, the value of the collateral diminishes. In such a process falling asset prices can cause losses to banks and other financial intermediaries and, if the worst comes to the worst, a full-scale financial crisis. These problems can, moreover, be exacerbated by exchange rate fluctuations.
Saying these biases are acceptable, when viewed from the perspective of society as a whole, is quite another. There are at least two reasons why our biased minds may carry a significant societal cost. First, fear of strangers is in part a neurological relic of the past, a time of hunter-gather communities, a different ecology. Our biased minds may, in a sense, still be adapting to a multi-cultural environment. In this respect, discrimination is the neurological equivalent of the appendix: essential at the time man ate grass on the savannahs, but today a sometimesdangerous physiological fossil. Fear of strangers today may be a sometimes-dangerous neurological fossil. 12  Akerlof and Kranton (2011) . 13  For example, Akerlof and Kranton (2011) explore how our conception of who we are, and who we want to be, may influence our actions and decisions rather than just economic incentives. 14  For further details, please see the literature review provided by the Equality Challenge Unit at http://www.ecu.ac.uk/publications/unconscious-bias-in-higher-education/. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Second, there are many instances where the collective consequence of individually rational decisions gives rise to sub-optimal outcomes for society. It is perfectly rational for everyone to head to the exits if the fire alarm sounds in the theatre. But the collective consequences of such actions are potentially catastrophic. Economists call this an externality problem. And diversity (discrimination) can be seen as just such a positive (negative) social externality, a public good (bad). This is not a new orthodoxy.

The proportion of BAME employees is around 17%, greater than the proportion for the UK as a whole. Representation at senior management remains much lower at 5%, but is increasing. 56  Walton and Spencer (2009). 57  Page (2010). 58  Davies (2015)  59  Resolution Foundation (2015)  60  Although around half of that reflects the fact that there is a greater proportion of women working part time than men. 61  European Women on Boards (2016)  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Like many other organisations, the Bank has sought to support diversity through a range of diversity networks covering, among other things, gender, ethnicity, LGBT, mental health, disability, caring and some of the main religions. One of my responsibilities is as Executive Sponsor of the Bank’s Ethnic Minority Network. This Network has put in place some valuable new initiatives to support greater ethnic diversity across the Bank over recent years, including reciprocal mentoring schemes and an Afro-Caribbean Scholarship Programme which funds students through university. The Bank has also recently signed up to UPstanding – an initiative to showcase BAME professionals working in the US, UK and Ireland. Plainly, there is further to go along these identity-based dimensions of diversity, in the Bank and more broadly. But there is wind in society’s sails, as well as in the Bank’s, on these dimensions of diversity, which gives good grounds for optimism about the future.