samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
After the crisis occurs, the policy has to be conducted according to the separation principle that allows a central bank to separate the decision on the appropriate monetary policy stance and the decision on the support of the financial system. We clearly demonstrated this in April when we decided to leave the non-standard measures unchanged, but at the same time decided to increase our key policy interest rates. In the future we will continue to live up to our mandate. We will do whatever is necessary to deliver price stability in the medium term,  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  using our policy interest rates, and continue to contribute to the stability of the financial system, using our non-standard measures. Conclusions To sum up, significant progress is being made in Europe to produce a more comprehensive and encompassing concept of economic governance. Looking forward, I believe however that it is crucial that the euro area dimension of economic governance is further reinforced in order to be commensurate with the wide range of sources and channels of financial instability, which has been made evident by the financial crisis. This reinforcement should involve two main institutional moves:   Closing the gap between the economic and financial aspects of euro area governance by fully integrating financial supervision within the concept of economic governance; and, consequently    Significantly strengthening the arrangements for financial supervision within the euro area, which could be supported by the establishment of a pan-euro area resolution fund.

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That would be an argument for keeping the programme in place while recognising that it may not be employed unless unusual circumstances appear. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Q. How would you evaluate the programme. Has it been a success? The programme has been a success. One has to ask what is the counterfactual for what would have happened in the euro area had the programme not been in place. In the dramatic situation that we were facing in May 2010, the damage that could have resulted from the absence of this programme could have been quite severe. Q. Is the transmission mechanism working now? Speaking for myself, I have less concern for the transmission of monetary policy today than in May 2010 when it was introduced. Q. Could Portugal government bonds be extended similar treatment as Greece and Ireland regarding collateral use in ECB operations? Regarding the eligibility of collateral, as a rule we rely on the rating agencies, but in those circumstances when we can make an independent evaluation of the country we don’t need to rely on the rating agencies. This has happened in the case of Greece, this is what has happened in the case of Ireland and I trust that if it becomes necessary to have an independent evaluation in order to assess the eligibility of collateral of any other sovereign in the euro area, then this will be done as well. Q.

In large part, and according to the analysis of the ratings agencies, these downgrades are due to the fact that as a country we have not yet taken the fiscal consolidation measures that our government and our parliament agreed were necessary to implement last year. It is a very costly delay as it raises the cost of financing of our public debt, it raises the cost of financing by private business, and it reduces employment and growth opportunities. There are things that can be done in order to reverse this. The policies that could reverse this deteriorating situation are well known, and they involve shoring up the long-term public finances of the Republic. So I repeat, all authorities must live up to their responsibilities. Q. Would you give me specific examples on how you believe the structural problems in the Cypriot economy can be addressed? We hear a lot about fiscal consolidation but what exactly should be done? I could mention a couple of the things that were already agreed by our parliament and government last year which unfortunately have not been implemented as of yet, with the associated damages from the delay. The most obvious I believe, because it has been repeatedly mentioned, is the sustainability of our pension system.
An illustration One can illustrate the complications that may arise in the actual work with the aid of the type of figure I showed earlier, where one marks the average squared deviations, the mean squared gaps, during the forecast period. For a concrete example of a time when the differences were particularly visible, we can study the forecast from September 2008. In addition to the repo rate path in the main scenario, the Riksbank usually also analyses two alternative repo rate paths; one that is higher than the one in the main scenario and one that is lower. The mean squared gaps for different measures of inflation and resource utilisation generated by these three interest rate paths in September 2008 are shown in Figure 2. 4  4  See, for instance, Blinder, A. S. (2007), “Central Banking by Committee: Why and How?” European Journal of Political Economy vol. 23, pp. 106–123. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 2. Mean squared gaps September 2008  Source: The Riksbank Note: Red dots show the main scenario, blue dots show the alternative with a higher repo rate path and yellow dots show the alternative with a lower repo rate path. If inflation is measured in terms of the CPIF, that is, the CPI excluding direct effects of interest rates, and if resource utilisation is measured with a gap calculated on the number of hours worked in the economy, one obtains the three dots up on the left-hand side of the figure.

François Villeroy de Galhau: From a couple under pressure to a Europe in transition Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the French German Business Forum, Paris, 16 November 2022. *** I am delighted to be with you today, to bring to a close this forum on "Europe in Transition". While this transition had already got underway, it is now being dramatically accelerated by an unprecedented succession of shocks. These shocks are identical for both Germany and France, but they put our Franco-German unity, and more broadly European unity, to the test. It is not that surprising: our energy policies are separate, and our democratic lives are primarily domestic, and they are under pressure in both our countries. However, today I would like to express a conviction shared with my friend and colleague Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank: to divide us would be to condemn us. Allow me to give you my personal view: I believe that I am one of the French officials who knows Germany best; because of my family roots in Lorraine and Saarland, I am a "frontier man". But it is also my professional conviction. In Washington last month, we have heard too many doubts voiced by international investors about Europe and its reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This feeling that we’ve built a strong fortress able to withstand any onslaught may create a mood of complacency and detract attention from the dangers that could be growing within the walls of financial institutions. This problem is aggravated by the fact that the hard numbers studied by regulators and supervisors should look great when the economy’s doing well. Profits are high and loan losses low when the economy is humming along. But, strong numbers in a strong economy don’t give you the full picture. They can’t always tell you whether people are cutting corners, taking excessive risks, or violating rules and regulations. Even worse, they can distract you from digging into the truth and unearthing unethical business practices and misconduct that may hide below the surface. The well-known challenge with culture is that, in contrast with things like capital and liquidity, culture feels “softer” and, therefore, more difficult to measure. And often in finance there’s a tendency to disregard what can’t be quantified. But just because it’s hard to measure doesn’t mean we should ignore it or downplay its importance. As we heard throughout today’s conference, culture shapes every conversation, every decision, and every action; it is at the root of whether an organization performs in a manner consistent with its mission, or not. How to Achieve a Better Banking Culture This brings me back to the issue of culture as a long-term investment that can’t be “fixed” overnight.

15 Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Board issues joint statement encouraging depository institutions to  explore innovative approaches to meet BSA/anti-money laundering compliance obligations and to further strengthen the financial system against illicit financial activity, December 3, 2018. 16 Rob Gruppetta, AI and Financial Crime: Silver Bullet or Red Herring?, November 11, 2018. 6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches
Andrew G Haldane: In giving, how much do we receive? The social value of volunteering Speech by Mr Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, at a Pro Bono Economics lecture to the Society of Business Economists, London, 9 September 2014. *  *  *  Accompanying figures can be found at the end of the speech. The views are not necessarily those of the Bank of England or the Monetary Policy Committee. I would like to thank Lynne Berry, Martin Brookes, Karen Hancock, Sue Holloway, Jane Walsh (Pro Bono Economics), Stephen Burgess, Jeremy Franklin, Charlotte Hogg, Joanna Konings, Lee Robinson (Bank of England), Daniel Fujiwara (SImetrica and London School of Economics), Matt Hill (Institute for Volunteering Research) and Valerie Fender (ONS). I am delighted to be giving this joint Society of Business Economists (SBE) and Pro Bono Economics (PBE) lecture. The issue I want to discuss is volunteering and its contribution to the economy and wider society. This issue provides a natural link between the work of SBE with its interest in promoting the economy, and PBE with its interest in promoting volunteering by economists. And, indeed, the work of both in improving societal welfare. Let me start with a word on PBE, for those unfamiliar with our work. PBE is a charity, which I co-founded around five years ago with Martin Brookes.

Today, another important milestone is being achieved with the establishment of the International Islamic Liquidity Management Corporation (IILM), a liquidity management infrastructure to enhance the capacity of Islamic finance in facilitating efficient cross–border flows. This represents another major breakthrough for the Islamic financial services industry. [ It will enable more effective liquidity management not only for the Islamic financial institutions but also for the management of Islamic financial portfolios.] This development is also significant as it demonstrates an international collaboration among the Central Banks. The greater collaboration among regulators seen in this decade cumulatively serve to contribute towards the continued resilience of the global Islamic financial system. The foundations for the sustainable development of Islamic finance has raised the potential for the industry to have a greater role in the global landscape. As we usher into a new decade, it is timely for the industry to reflect on its existing strengths and build new capabilities to create new engines of growth in this next wave of market opportunities that are before us. This Global Islamic Finance Forum (GIFF) 2010 is designed to discuss these potentials. Following the success of the inaugural GIFF in 2007, GIFF 2010 has drawn more than 1000 participants from across the globe for the opportunity to have meaningful and catalytic engagement on issues concerning the future of global Islamic finance. This year’s gathering is taking place in the aftermath of the worst global financial and economic crisis of the modern era.
As you well know, in response to the financial crisis, measures were taken along different lines, which helped solve the main shortcomings affecting the Spanish banking sector at that moment in time and positioned it in a good starting point for the implementation of the SSM. In addition to measures taken to reduce the level of exposure to real estate development and to drive greater consolidation in the sector, a major effort was made in the field of recapitalisation, which went beyond the actions taken by public authorities. Since 2008, the sector has set aside new provisions for outstanding loans or foreclosures for approximately € billion. And, after absorbing this substantial balance sheet clean-up into results or reserves, banks have managed to increase their own funds by approximately € billion over the same period. However, a key part of the reform was the overhaul of the regulatory framework of the saving banks’ sector, which represented almost half of the Spanish banking system. As you are aware, this reform aimed at separating the ownership of the banking institutions from their management. Former saving banks (except for two small institutions) have all become banking foundations whose main asset is the participation in credit institutions. The latter are managed independently of the foundation and take the form of regular corporations which, in most cases, are or will soon be listed in capital markets.

Moreover, the Law incorporates a number of incentives for foundations to relinquish control of the banks in which they participate, something that will normally happen in most cases in less than four years. We believe that this approach will certainly promote better business management and facilitate access to capital markets. In doing so it will contribute to a smoother adjustment by saving banks to the new and very demanding environment, thereby contributing to the strength of the institutions themselves and to financial stability. But more importantly, the highly relevant social objectives of the cajas are fully preserved through the operation of the foundations. These foundations continue to contribute very 4/5  significantly to social welfare. It is just that the foundations´ wealth will now be more diversified and, therefore, they are likely to obtain a more robust stream of income with which to finance their activities. Of course, I would not dare claim that this formula be pursued everywhere. Other reform strategies may also work in other jurisdictions. Yet, I strongly believe that some form of restructuring is required in the European banking market and that the strategy followed in Spain is a reasonable response to the new challenges all credit institutions have to face while preserving the essence of the social value that saving banks have historically provided. Thank you for your attention. 5/5
Notice that leaving the check undeposited, much like the hoarding of currency, is a negative outcome for society. In this case, the receiver of the check is able to impose the costs of earning negative deposit rates on the check writer. But this outcome turns on its head the reason that the convention of allowing the check receiver the option of deciding when to deposit a check was adopted in the first place. Under positive interest rates, the check receiver has an incentive to deposit the check at his or her earliest convenience. In other words, these conventions are incentive-compatible ways society has devised to enforce the payment of debt, taxes, and other obligations. By reversing those incentives, negative rates encourage the check receiver to deposit a check from a creditworthy source at his or her latest convenience. This may impose unexpected costs on the check writer, triggering unplanned overdrafts and associated charges, and, in this case, just as in the case of currency, encouraging investment in undeposited checks, rather than in some productive investment. Once again, in these situations we should consider how innovations might alter the possibilities to avoid negative rates over time. For example, faced with potentially large  7  Many of these were reviewed in Kenneth Garbade and Jamie McAndrews, “If Interest Rates Go Negative . . . Or, Be Careful What You Wish For,” Liberty Street Economics blog, August 29, 2012, and in John Cochrane, “Cancel Currency?” The Grumpy Economist blog, December 30, 2014.

At the current juncture, however, a scarcity of funding and capital is likely to make banks cautious about doing this. That was exactly what happened in Japan during its so-called “lost decade”. But there are signs that the extra reserves may be contributing to a decline in the interest rate that banks pay to borrow from each other. It will take some time before we can assess just how effective Quantitative Easing has proved to be. Our latest assessment is that the combined stimulus from policy easing and the lower value of sterling should be sufficient to lead to growth resuming as we move towards the end of the year. But the continuing drag from the financial sector means that the ensuing pickup is likely to take place relatively slowly. There is, however, considerable uncertainty surrounding that assessment. Our primary objective is, of course, to control inflation, not growth. Our target measure, the Consumer Price Index, has been running above the 2% target for the past eighteen months, reflecting in particular the surge in energy and other commodity prices during the first part of last year. But it is now dropping back, reflecting both the sharp decline in energy prices in the latter part of 2008 and the growing margin of spare capacity in the economy. We expect it soon to fall below target and it is more likely than not to remain there for the next year or two.
15.02.2023  Latest monetary policy developments in the euro area Consejo Empresarial Alianza por Iberoamérica (CEAPI) Madrid Pablo Hernández de Cos Go verno r  Ladies and gentlemen, let me begin by thanking Consejo Empresarial Alianza por Iberoamérica for inviting me to address you all. Today I will focus on recent and future monetary policy developments in the euro area. In the first part of my address, I will explain the rationale behind the monetary policy decisions that we adopted in our European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meeting earlier this month. In the second part, I will lay out a number of factors that will require close monitoring going forward. Our February monetary policy decisions In order to explain the rationale behind our February decisions, it is useful to first go back to our decisions and communication at our December monetary policy meeting. As you may recall, in that meeting we raised our key interest rates by 50 bp. More importantly for the purpose of my address today, we also announced that interest rates would still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target. The ECB Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook is based on a wealth of information, in which the ECB/Eurosystem staff’s macroeconomic projections – prepared on a quarterly basis – play a prominent role.

MAS and key industry associations such as ACI Singapore, the Institute of Banking and Finance (IBF), Association of Banks in Singapore (ABS), are committed to equip our financial workforce with the necessary skills and knowledge through seminars and other training programmes. MAS will also continue to collaborate with financial institutions, the tripartite partners, and institutes of higher learning to build a strong local pipeline of specialised talent, particularly in areas such as information technology, computing, data analytics. 25 If we can do well in these two key areas, it will position our FX market and participants to capture growth opportunities and serve the needs of the Asian markets. Conclusion 26 Promoting and embedding the Code within the global FX market and in Singapore, is a journey that we have committed to. We hope that you can support these efforts, from your firms and in your individual capacity as market participants. 27 We have also co-created our medium term business strategies with market participants like yourselves, and we are committed to making them work, and bringing more innovation into the market place. 28 With this, I hope that you will have a productive and rewarding conference ahead. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches
There are limits to the size and extent of the shocks that the private sector can manage, at least in the short run, without official assistance. 16. Looking ahead, to minimise the need for government intervention aimed at heading off market failures induced by large and volatile capital flows, we need to build bigger markets and to strengthen the markets we already have. The challenge here – in an age when grandiose government schemes are no longer palatable or feasible – is to find ways of doing this without too much government, including regulatory, involvement. Among the more significant developments in the international efforts to deal with this issue are codes of practice, rather than regulatory impositions, and the promotion of transparency. Increasingly, the focus is not so much on architecture – building something grand and visible to replace the now defunct Bretton Woods system – but on infrastructure: laying down the connections and making sure they work properly rather than building walls and barriers. I shall say more about this in a few minutes. 17. A crucial element in the management of international capital flows is, of course, the question of exchange rate systems, which were a special target of large speculators looking for short-term profit opportunities during the Asian financial crisis. Where there is an exchange rate target against which bets can be laid, the pressures that build up can be quite formidable.

And five days from now, the final phase of the system, which will allow paper cheque clearing and delivery versus payment settlement of debt securities denominated in US dollars in Hong Kong, will fall into place. Those among you with responsibility for corporate treasury functions should consider making use of this system, which will lower costs and considerably reduce settlement risks. 26. Technology changes our lives fundamentally. We are somewhat lucky to be living in an age of rapid technological revolution, and are perhaps luckier than our ancestors who experienced similar revolutions, because the revolution now going on is directed largely towards the arts of peace rather than of war. I say ‘lucky’ because, despite all the uncertainties and disruptions it brings, this technological revolution has the potential to change people’s lives for the better. But it also brings about pain, and, if not applied with skill, can accentuate inequalities of geography, education and  BIS Review 114/2000  6  wealth. Labour is displaced by machines and software, and labour requirements turn away from the purely physical to the more knowledge-based – witness the slowness in the improvement of our unemployment rate. The workforce will need to adapt. And our economy will need to adapt to accommodate the kind of knowledge-based industries that are concentrated into a logistics, financial and digital hub.