samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The outcome on this front is quite favorable, as headline and core inflation were well contained at 2.3 and 1.1 percent, respectively, by end2007. Despite the unusual global situation, the Thai financial markets also remained resilient through 2007 with only moderate fluctuations. And while credit and deposit grew slowly, profitability of banks and financial institutions remained at a satisfactory level. Overall NPLs in the banking system remained moderate, as low income households’ ability to service debt started to decline mostly on account of slow income expansion. Ladies and gentlemen, These growth and stability outcomes under significant downside risks paint a picture of a resilient economy. As far as the outlook for the Thai economy in 2008 is concerned, I would like to address first the growth momentum and then talk about the risks and uncertainties confronting the economy this year. Preliminary data indicate that private consumption and investment are firming up after recovering during the fourth quarter last year. This is good news, as private consumption and investment constitute almost 70 per cent of total demand. Clearer political landscape postelection and continued spending by the government has helped revive private demand. Reflecting that, we have started to see strong pickup in imports in January. February data also confirmed the strength of imports. Moreover, plans for further fiscal stimulus as well as accelerated budget disbursement should ensure that domestic demand revival is firmly in place.

As only 10 days had passed from the EU referendum, I was anticipating that I would be spending significant amounts of my time thinking about how to approach prudential policy during a period of uncertainty over the UK’s future relationship with the EU. I had not anticipated, however, that the finalisation of Basel III, which at the time was expected to be agreed by the Group of Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision in January 2017, would be delayed by another 11 months, during which time a number of people would doubt whether it would be finalised at all. But on 7 December 2017, Basel III was finalised. This is a major milestone for regulators globally, including the Bank of England, which has been at the forefront of prudential reforms internationally. Not only because it signals the continuation of a cooperative approach to standard setting for internationally-active banks, but importantly, because it puts in place the final elements of the reforms to banking regulation agreed since the crisis. What has been achieved? The scale of these reforms has been remarkable: between the start of 2009 and December 2017, when 1  Basel III was finalised, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision published 47 standards. To put that in context, in the preceding twenty-year period, between the time Basel I was agreed in 1988 and the crisis, the Basel Committee had published less than half of that number – 21 standards. The reforms have also touched a wide range of different aspects of bank regulation.
Your input has been valuable in designing the strategies and approach to advance VBI as a key thrust in propelling the Islamic finance industry further forward. Today, I would like to share some of my thoughts on the concept of value-based intermediation. I will begin by giving an account of the achievements of our industry within the past decades. I will then touch on the role of VBI as a catalyst for growth with positive impact and the call for Islamic finance to lead the way in realising the visions and objectives of VBI. Islamic finance in Malaysia has evolved and grown by leaps and bounds over the last 30 years. Today, we have a well-developed and regulated Islamic finance industry. There are diverse industry players, both local and foreign. Prior to 2000, there were only two Islamic banks and two takaful operators in the country with total market share and takaful penetration rate of less than 5%. Islamic banking assets have now grown to capture more than a quarter of the total banking system while the takaful sector has increased its penetration rate to 14.6% of the population. This is indeed very good progress. In the sukuk segment, Malaysia is also the market leader with market share of more than 50% in sukuk outstanding since year 2000. On the Bank’s part, the Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 was introduced to modernise our regulatory and legal framework in adapting to changing needs of the industry.

But where, in more extreme situations, an agreed solution in relation to external debt is not immediately achievable there may be a logical case for the orderly suspension of payments until a better alternative can be put in place. This could have advantages for committed private sector creditors as well as for the debtor country and the official international community if it prevented free riders running for the exit, or seeking to attach assets, and provided time for orderly negotiations on the provision of new finance or for equitable debt rescheduling. Similarly, in some situations, there may be an equivalent case for restraining domestic capital outflows. I am under no illusion that this area is an extremely sensitive and complex one. There are no simple solutions. But we do need to continue to explore the available options or we will remain in the position of making things up as we go along. The snail in this area certainly still has a long way to go! Conclusion Mr Chairman, I hope that I may have been able to persuade you this evening that the continuous round of meetings on international monetary and financial question do indeed serve a useful purpose, even though the outcome from one meeting to another may not be immediately apparent.
The household sector, of course, has people in many different circumstances, so one can’t tell a single story. But, subject to the vagaries of data revisions, it appears that people on average are saving much more than they were pre-crisis. Some may be trying to reduce debt levels; some saving to fill holes in expected pensions; some for university tuition fees and some in response to heightened uncertainty about future employment. Meanwhile, many of those who want to leverage up – such as first-time house buyers – are having to save for a larger deposit than they would have done pre-crisis. Consumption growth has been very muted: in 2012 it grew at less than half its average rate in the pre-crisis decade. And the level of consumption remains about 4% below its pre-crisis peak. One possible household reaction to lower expected incomes is for people to try and work harder, and certainly to avoid unemployment if at all possible. This means being willing to  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  stay in (or find) work even though the benefits from that – real wages – are being squeezed. Labour market participation – the number of people in work or actively seeking employment – has held up well since the 2008/09 recession; this contrasts with previous recessions when workers were discouraged from the labour market and the participation rate fell sharply.

Much has been done even in the weakest institutions. But there is more to do to complete the task of ensuring that the banking system is fit for purpose. My main message today is that you should expect the Bank of England to continue to play its part in supporting the recovery towards genuine real growth, whilst being careful not to let domestic inflationary pressures build, consistent with our remit. But monetary policy can only take us so far and the necessary real adjustments will need real changes and, most importantly, real time to work through. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
The policy measure was intended to loosen liquidity for commercial banks to enable them increase their lending to productive  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  sectors of the economy. The measure was also aimed at influencing the pricing of the loans especially in light of high lending rates prevailing in the economy; 2)  Increase in capital: a robust banking industry is indispensable for supporting investments in the economy. A lower capital base entails limited participation in the financing of investments in addition to increased vulnerability of the banking industry. From the last quarter of 2011, the banking sector saw significant regulatory reform as the capital thresholds for banks were increased. Local owned banks are now required to have a capital base of K104 billion whilst foreign owned banks are required to have a minimum capital base of K520 billion. The revised thresholds are aimed at ensuring that we have the best possible environment in which banks can carry out these key functions. As I stated earlier, banks are specialised institutions and they are fundamental to the working of the economy and linked to all parts of the financial system. But the consequence is that if banks fail, the external effects can have an adverse impact on the financial system and the economy. That is why banks are required to maintain a certain level of minimum capital. In this regard, the central bank provides oversight through prudential supervision.

Chart: Mainland GDP  1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  In Norway, growth in the mainland economy picked up through 2017 and the economic outlook improved. Low interest rates, improved competitiveness and an expansionary fiscal stance contributed to the upturn, while oil investment declined at a slower pace after falling sharply for several years. Although the activity level in the Norwegian economy was still somewhat below a normal level, the economy was emerging from the downturn that followed in the wake of the fall in oil prices in 2014. Employment was rising and unemployment was falling. The improvement in the labour market was reflected in a moderate increase in wage growth, which in the preceding years had been restrained by the decline in oil prices, lower capacity utilisation and lower underlying productivity growth. Chart: Consumer prices The depreciation of the krone following the sharp fall in oil prices in 2014 and 2015 gradually fed through to prices and resulted in higher inflation. As this effect faded and the krone appreciated, inflation fell back. Both low imported inflation and weak cost growth in the Norwegian economy contributed to low inflation in 2017. Underlying inflation remains below target, but prospects for higher levels of activity and slightly higher wage growth indicate that inflation will rise in the period ahead. Chart: Debt ratio and interest burden Elevated house price inflation and high debt growth have increased household sector vulnerabilities. After rising faster than household income for several years, house prices began to fall in April 2017.
Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the January 2015 Inflation Report, Ankara, 27 January 2015. *  *  *  Accompanying charts can be found at the end of the speech. Distinguished Guests, Welcome to the briefing held to convey the main messages of the Inflation Report of January 2015. We have been pursuing a cautious monetary policy stance for a year. We have witnessed some favorable outcomes of this approach. The downward trend in inflation will accelerate starting from this month. Therefore, we began cutting policy rates in January. Provided we maintain our cautious approach throughout these policy rate reductions, the end-2015 inflation will likely be the lowest we have seen in the last 45 years. I will now present an overview of the report, which will be published on our website soon. The report typically summarizes the economic outlook underlying monetary policy decisions, shares our evaluations on macroeconomic developments and presents our medium-term inflation forecasts, which were revised in view of the developments in the last quarter, along with our monetary policy stance. In addition to the main text, the report includes seven boxes entailing interesting and up-to-date analyses on various topics. The report presents boxes that analyze the effects of oil prices on consumer prices and the reflection of international grain prices on domestic prices.

Svein Gjedrem: The economic situation and monetary policy in Norway Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), for Norges Bank’s regional network, arranged by Kunnskapsparken Bodø, in Sandnessjøen, 4 September 2006. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 16 August and Inflation Report 2/06. *  *  *  The economic situation The cyclical upturn in the Norwegian economy continues. Corporate sector profitability is solid. Companies are borrowing and investing. Employment is rising at a fast pace, unemployment is falling and household demand is still on the increase. Capacity utilisation in the economy is rising and a growing number of enterprises are facing constraints. Statistics Norway’s business tendency survey for the second quarter is still giving positive signals regarding developments in Norwegian manufacturing. A clear majority of industrial leaders assess the general outlook for the third quarter as more positive than for the second quarter. At the same time, consumer price inflation excluding energy products remains low and is lower than the inflation target. Norges Bank seeks to set the interest rate with a view to achieving a reasonable balance between the objective of stabilising inflation at target and the objective of stabilising developments in output and employment.
Figure 2 Global imbalances, current account balances (Billions of dollars) 1,200 800 400 0 -400 -800 -1,200  96  97  98  99  00  01  US Japan Emerging Asia Oil exporters Other prima and goods exporters  02  03  04 05  06 07(e)  Euro area Latin America  (f) Forecast. Source: International Monetary Fund. BIS Review 124/2008  9  Figure 3 Real price of housing (*) (IT01=100, index) 200  200  180  180  160  160  140  140  120  120  100  100  80 01 02  03 04  05 06 07  Australia US (2) New Zealand  08  80 01 02  03 04  05 06  Spain Germany Denmark  US (1) UK (3)  07 08  Ireland France Austria  (*) Nominal index deflated by CP1. (1) OFHEO. (2) S&P/Case-Shiller. (3) Nationwide. Sources: BIS y CEIC Data.

China is maybe the most emblematic example, but growth has been present in the majority of emerging economies, in particular in Asia and Latin America. One of the reasons why in the ten years before 2006 inflation was low, especially in developed economies, was the supply of goods from emerging markets. 5 Inflation is dependent on the monetary policy decisions and in the extreme, under total inflation control, it could be pegged to the target regardless of the import prices of imports or other factors. However, what globalization permitted was a period of low inflation and high growth (table 1). There was a change in relative prices, with a significant drop in prices of goods from emerging economies going global and, as we see today, with an increase in the relative prices of foodstuff and energy. It can be said, then, that globalization was a productivity shock that allowed for transitory reductions in inflation. However, the phenomenon could not last forever, and is now reversing. The accelerated growth of the past several years finally showed on prices. This can be interpreted as we would analyze inflation in just any country. When potential GDP grows fast, inflation remains constant or may even fall. However, if actual GDP growth runs above its potential or trend, price pressures result. The world economy grew fast, and although China contributed to world potential output growth, inflationary pressures have emerged in those sectors where the demand grew faster than supply, namely oil and foods (figure 9).
BIS Review 133/2010  7  A bad equilibrium path for the financial sector – or in more everyday language a vicious cycle – is much more likely to exist in a world where financial firms that hold large amounts of risky assets, such as banks, have small equity cushions. The smaller bank capital is the greater will be the concern over bank solvency from a given fall in the value of bank assets. That can trigger a drying up in funding for banks causing a sale of some bank assets that drives their values lower, exacerbating the concerns about the ability of banks to survive. There need be nothing irrational about this process. Indeed, there are many examples of bad, but rational, equilibrium paths that markets – and whole economies – can follow. The idea that this is news to economists who use formal models expressed in maths is completely wrong-headed. Yet there is a current view that economists who use mathematical models to analyse outcomes where people behave rationally are always led to the Panglossian conclusion that things will work out just fine. It would come as a surprise to those who hold this view that two of the most famous economic articles in the last forty years which are routinely taught to economics undergraduates – by George Akerlof (1970) and by Diamond and Dybvig (1983) – draw entirely non-Panglossian conclusions from formal (mathematically expressed) models of collective rational behaviour.

Stefan Ingves: Basel III is simpler and stronger Op-ed by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, published in the Wall Street Journal, 15 October 2012. *  *  *  The economic cost of the global financial crisis during the past five years has been frighteningly large. One clear lesson from the crisis is that regulatory capital requirements for the banking system were too low. Or in other words, leverage was too high. Under the pre-crisis rules, banks were allowed to increase their leverage to unprecedented levels. This increased risk in the financial system and when the crisis hit, the implicit guarantees resulted in massive public bailouts around the globe. The Basel Committee’s capital reforms, known as Basel III, substantially raise capital requirements from pre-crisis levels to reduce the probability of bank failures and the associated risks to taxpayers and to financial stability. Recently, much has been made of the perceived shortcomings of Basel III. Some argue that Basel III, which comes into effect next year, is not enough. Others argue that Basel III is too complex and should be replaced by a simple leverage ratio, calculated as tangible equity to non-risk weighted assets. In my view, the Basel III agreement fundamentally enhances national and global financial stability by both raising the level of capital required by banks, and by simplifying the regulatory framework. It is no small task to reach a global consensus on these often quite technical matters.
Work on the Riksbank's other main objective - financial stability - has been characterised to a great extent by the experiences of the financial crisis that shook Sweden in the early 1990s. The Riksbank has been something of a pioneer, being the first central bank in the world to publish reports on financial stability. There is also reason to make a fresh effort in this field. We are in the process of appointing a group of experts, which includes a couple of international experts, who will evaluate our work and present suggestions for improvements. The evaluations we make will be followed up with open seminars, where we can discuss the future direction of our operations with economists from the academic world as well as actors in the financial sector. The Riksbank is currently one of the world's most open central banks, but we can certainly become better. Our work will in future be aimed at ensuring that the Riksbank reaches a broader general public than is currently the case. Our ambition is to create even broader support for our operations and thereby greater understanding of what we do and why we do it. Personally, I intend to travel around  BIS Review 44/2003  1  the country before the autumn and spring monetary policy meetings to talk and listen to representatives of local industries and regions. The inflation perspective It was observed in the June Inflation Report that for some time there had been gradual downward revisions to the forecasts for the world economy.

Once the appropriate level of the key interest rates has been set, the Executive Board of the ECB implements its monetary policy stance so that the effects of its interest rate decisions are transmitted to the financial markets and the real economy effectively. In this sense, the ECB had to act swiftly and decisively to avoid that tensions in the money market would spill-over to other markets and adversely affect the real economy. So we had to clearly convey two complementary messages. One was that the ECB was determined – from the onset of the financial crises in August 2007 – to ensure the orderly functioning of the euro area inter-bank money market by offering supplementary liquidityproviding refinancing operations or – more recently – by widening the collateral framework to facilitate the provision of liquidity to merchant banks and to engage in unlimited provision of liquidity for all our refinancing operations at a fixed rate. The other message which is fundamental was to raise the public’s awareness that the exceptional interventions aimed to alleviate the tensions in the money market would not compromise the longer-term achievement of price stability in line with our definition less than 2%, but close to 2%. Conclusions Let me conclude. The fundamental changes in central bank communication have helped to enhance the effectiveness, predictability and credibility of monetary policy and have notably contributed to lowering both inflation rates and volatility in the real economy.