samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Since there has been no deterioration in their money multipliers, central banks of emerging market economies have not felt the urge – experienced by their counterparts in advanced economies – for an unconventional broadening in their money bases. Esteemed participants, distinguished guests, In emerging market economies, the gradual alleviation of the pressure on financing sources – caused by public sector demand – has provided significant room for the private sector to invest in physical capital. These investments have enabled – via capital markets and the banking system – the use of both domestic as well as foreign savings. These shed light on the importance and prominence of institutional capacity and financial infrastructure for financial stability. Smoothly functioning payment and settlement systems is the first and foremost significant requisite for strengthening financial infrastructure in emerging market economies. The existence of both a stock market backed by a strong capital market and also a bond market in local currency is also essential. Another important structural factor is a sound banking system. An adequate legal infrastructure, strong capital structure and confidence-based management are the prerequisites for such a system. Distinguished guests, A strong infrastructure is a “necessary-but-not sufficient” component of financial stability. Another “sine qua non” for more stable global capital flows is developing and implementing a macroprudential policy framework, and emerging market economies have taken important steps in this direction in the post-2008 period.

Erdem Başçi: Global finance in transition Keynote speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the conference on “Global finance in transition”, Istanbul, 7 May 2013. *  *  *  Esteemed participants, distinguished guests, Welcome to the conference on “Global Finance in Transition”, held under the Russian G20 presidency and hosted jointly by the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (RBC) and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). In this conference, we will be analysing and discussing with experts, the structural changes in global finance experienced as of 2008. In these opening remarks, I would like to briefly point out the impact of these changes on emerging market economies. Three fields have undergone significant changes in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis: fiscal policies, monetary policies and financial sector policies. These changes have had significant subsequent impacts on global finance. As for the fiscal policies; those of the emerging market economies differ considerably from the fiscal policies of the advanced economies. Automatic stabilizers did cause emerging market economies to have wider budget deficits temporarily in 2009. Yet, EME’s sovereign debt has been very low compared to that of advanced economies, and still on a downward trend since 2010. Emerging market and advanced economies diverge in terms of monetary policies as well.
The need to review the assumptions on which the Central Bank Act was based when it entered into force in 2001 has also been mentioned. Let us recall that at the end of 2000, the Prime Minister assigned a committee representing the four largest political parties in parliament with the task of drafting new Central Bank legislation. A complete draft bill was delivered in March 2001, backed by the entire committee. This was passed as law virtually unamended with the unanimous support of all 56 members of parliament who were present for its final reading. The Act represented a major reform. It granted the Bank increased independence, simplified its objectives and made greater demands for transparency and professionalism. A review of the assumptions behind this legislation or amendments to it will obviously not reduce the current macroeconomic imbalances. Other action is needed. The issue is actually very straightforward. Iceland’s economy has been overheating for a long time. This is the result of massive domestic investments, radical changes in the domestic financial sector when the banks began providing mortgage loans in competition with the HFF, and exceptionally large increases in household disposable income stemming from increases in pay and tax reductions. All this happened under external conditions in which interest rates were at a historical low. The consequence was buoyant domestic demand, private consumption and investment, which have been reflected in inflation and a large current account deficit.

Both would have been very difficult to achieve and are outside the Central Bank’s sphere of influence anyway. Yet another allegation has been that the Central Bank is in a straitjacket and will never be able to lower the policy rate. The Bank disagrees. I have already mentioned changes made to the Bank’s forecasting techniques earlier this year which included publishing the policy rate path that, in the staff’s assessment, would suffice to bring inflation to target within an acceptable timeframe. The Central Bank has repeatedly stated that the policy rate will be brought down as soon as conditions allow this to be done, but not before. The forecast published in July implied that the policy rate would be lowered in the first half of 2008. I should point out that Iceland has run up a huge current account deficit. This will narrow somewhat this year and is forecast to decline slowly but surely. A wide current account deficit creates uncertainty concerning the exchange rate of the króna. A smaller current account deficit reduces this uncertainty, so that conditions could remain for ongoing glacier bond issuance, for example, despite the narrower interest rate differential with abroad. More views have been aired recently. One was that the prevailing global financial climate presents a unique opportunity for the Central Bank to cut its policy rate. In the same breath it was underlined that the Bank needs to cool the economy. These two perspectives are incompatible.
Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy: Navigating towards Sustained Growth Veerathai Santiprabhob, Governor of the Bank of Thailand Thailand Focus 2018 August 29, 2018 Ladies and gentlemen, It is my pleasure to be addressing you this morning. I will take this opportunity to speak to you about Thailand’s economic outlook and monetary policy at this important time. But before I move on, I would like to first thank the Stock Exchange of Thailand for hosting this event, and all participants for your interest in the Thai economy and the Thai capital market. This is an important time, not only for the global economy, but also for the Thai economy. After five years of sub-par growth rates, Thailand has managed to restore economic growth to its potential. As the economy moves from a recovery phase towards an expansionary phase, the role of macroeconomic policy needs to evolve accordingly. What used to be a stimulative tool will eventually have to transition into a support on which the economy could grow on a sustainable basis. Furthermore, we need to step up structural reform policy to address long-term challenges. Ladies and gentlemen, The turning point of macroeconomic policy stance is not a straightforward one. Imagine yourself on a road trip with a group of friends.

One has to be concerned about this, particularly at a time of slow growth in household disposable income, and about the resulting increase in the consumer debt burden. For while the default rate of household borrowing, particularly mortgage loans, remains low, much lower in fact than that of the corporate sector, existing and prospective borrowers may not be factoring into calculations of their repayment capacity the possibility that interest rates might not remain at their current low levels indefinitely. While the exuberance which took hold of the property market in recent years appears to have moderated somewhat, a similar phenomenon has emerged in the equity market. The optimism that is driving up share prices is supported by strong corporate profitability in a few cases. Current trends, however, are taking prices into territory where the connection with intrinsic values becomes less obvious, and suggest caution. BIS Review 16/2006  5  10. Economic analysts can sound gloomy warnings to keep pushing the authorities in the right direction, or ring the bells proclaiming good news and risk undermining the sense of determination needed. Which approach would you advocate? Neither of the two. There is already so much spin created by purveyors of pessimism and optimism alike that it is becoming increasingly difficult to get a balanced reading of the economic situation. Independent economic analysts, therefore, shoulder a heavy responsibility. It is to bring together all the relevant information, subject it to a critical but objective assessment, and be prepared to support their conclusions with well documented arguments.
In our last Monetary Policy Report we stated that, in our baseline scenario, we needed to grow somewhat less than our potential to contain the inflationary pressures and ensure inflation convergence to its target rate of 3% annually over a two-year horizon. We also thought that the world economy would not help to reduce inflation. Today the scene has changed and we are carefully reviewing its inflationary implications. To begin with, the international scenario may trigger a reduction in demand that could help contain inflation. This certainly has implications on the monetary policy trajectory, consistent with the inflation target. Secondly, commodity prices are in a tailspin, particularly in the case of oil. However, these events have not fully passed through to our economy, because our currency has depreciated substantially. Overall, more evidence is needed with respect to the persistence of the recent events in the world to calibrate the monetary impulse. The Central Bank of Chile has paid close attention to external developments and has been ready to provide any liquidity required for the proper operation of the financial markets, as it has been doing since the end of September and will continue to do for as long as it deems necessary. I am convinced that we will weather this international financial crisis successfully. We have built a macroeconomic policy scheme with sufficient degrees of flexibility and a strong commitment to stability that, under the current circumstances have the challenge of attenuating the adverse world economic scenario and ensure stability.

In respect to the conditions prevailing in Malaysia, Malaysia's strong economic fundamentals, with low rate of inflation, strong external balance, low level of foreign debt, strong reserves levels and strengthened banking sector have provided strong support for the pegged exchange rate regime. Malaysia also has sufficient flexibility to undertake adjustments on all sectors of the economy to remain competitive. The diversified economic structure, the enhanced mobility of capital and labour has also provided Malaysia with increased resilience to weather external shocks. Malaysia also had the flexibility of policy to respond to the circumstances. In all cases, when an exchange rate regime has failed, it was not due to the regime itself, but due to the weaknesses in the economy and the financial system. Having undergone significant transformation and emerging with a much strengthened set of fundamentals, the Malaysian and regional economies are better able to absorb the volatility in the exchange rates. Countries are also more cognizant of the costs of currency depreciation, particularly on confidence. As an example, comparing the response of regional currencies during the two episodes of yen depreciation, one in the early part of 2001 and the other towards the end of 2001 and early 2002, it is clear that the response of regional exchange rates was significantly more muted during the most recent episode.
  In 2017 we published our first effort to measure research and development as a productive asset in the National Accounts.   In addition, we recently began to explore new administrative data such as electronic invoices from the Tax Office, which will complement the country’s national and regional statistics. The results of these projects will be included in the release of the 2018 benchmark compilation, scheduled for 2021.   This year, we published a second effort to evaluate Chile’s value added in international trade, which identified the presence of heterogeneity among the various industries. This will allow improving the inputoutput estimates and the description of the productive interrelations of the Chilean economy. During this Conference we will consider the experiences of Germany and Portugal in having a microdata repository that gives access to third parties, for analysis and research, with due protection of confidential information. In a similar fashion, we are developing an institutional Data Warehouse, strengthening the technological architecture and infrastructure that will allow us to organize, integrate and analyze a large amount of information, enhancing the construction of indicators and applied research in an efficient and timely manner. The Third Conference on Statistics Spaces for reflection and dialogue such as the one that this day-and-a-half provides, are essential to deepen and improve our understanding of the phenomena described. Throughout the sessions, we hope learn about the progress made by international organizations, other central banks, statistical offices and researchers in these areas.

I am not appointed by a president of the United States or subject to confirmation by the U.S. Senate. I, along with the 11 other Federal Reserve Bank presidents, operate the business of the Federal Reserve as efficiently as any bank in the private sector. And as Kirk mentioned, we make money for the U.S. taxpayer: We returned over $ billion to the U.S. Treasury in 2009 and 2010. You are looking at one of the few public servants that make money from its operations, rather than just spending taxpayer money. This wouldn’t be possible without a first-rate staff, led by my chief operating officer, Helen Holcomb, and the other senior officers that Kirk introduced. I love and admire these folks and too rarely get to single them out for public praise. So, please join me in applauding them. Two matters As Kirk has already said much of what I planned to say today about how the Fed works, I would like to address two non-operational matters. First is the record of job creation in Texas. For obvious reasons, this has become a subject of intense interest to the national media; my staff and I are being hounded by the national press corps for data and commentary. Today I will try to separate fact from fiction, with a heavy focus on the data. The second matter I wish to address is why I dissented from the consensus at the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Another simple way of seeing it is to think that the individual will want to borrow to acquire this good, even if her income is very low, presumably because she always expects to have the funds available in the future to repay. As we will see, however, it is possible that multiple equilibria exist, with low and high output, as a result of coordination failures. Uncertainty and the value of waiting Decision making under uncertainty has always been a complex thing to study. Often to simplify, we turn to quadratic specifications in order to use certainty equivalence. Surely this  1  This exercise is based on an MIT class exercise which, despite having saved my notes and after a number of inquiries with friends, I have been unable to find. The original model was somewhat more complex because it assumed strategic interactions among firms, and here the demand is only taken as given. More formal models were developed in Cooper and John (1988). For a thorough review of this literature, see Cooper (1999). 2  Note that because this is only an illustration, many aspects were left out of the analysis. In this case we are assuming that there is some friction in the price-setting mechanism that prevents firms from selling all they want at a given price. This friction may come from firms deciding how much to produce before they know the demand, which would lead us to incorporate the producers’ decisions to this story. Analytically, however, it would not change much.

6  If the crisis was caused only by a rise in uncertainty, a rapid recovery could be expected (Bloom, 2009), but the argument here is that imbalances exist that may hold back this recovery slowing it down. BIS Review 76/2009  7  De Gregorio, J. (2009), “Chile frente a la recesión mundial,” Estudios Públicos, Vol. 113, summer 2009, pp. 5-26. Dixit, A. and R. Pindyck (1994), Investment Under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press. Figure 1  Countries posting drops in real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2008 (*) (percentage of whole sample) 100  100  90  90  80  80  70  70  60  60  50  50  40  40  30  30  20  20  10  10  0  0  71  74  77  80  83  86  89  92  95  98  01  04  07  (*) Using the annualized quarterly GDP for a sample of 29 developed an emerging economies. Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 2 Equilibrium  D  A  Y, EY  8  BIS Review 76/2009  Figure 3 Multiple Equilibria  D  A B  C  Y, EY  Figure 4 Volatility of S&P 500 (*) (percent) Subprime crisis erupts  90  Bear Stearns goes bankrupt  Lehmann, AIG, etc.
Confidence in the credibility and stability of private money are fundamental components of financial stability. Innovation But let’s go back to stablecoins and innovation in payments. Stablecoins are digital tokens that aim to maintain a stable value vis-a-vis existing forms of money6. Their origin stories generally trace back to the crypto world. Most forms of cryptoassets, like Bitcoin, are too volatile to be attractive as a widespread means of payment. We have seen time and time again that if money is not reliably stable most people will not want to use or accept it as payment. There is no reason to think this time is different7. To solve this, stablecoins have turned to the age-old solution of anchoring their value to national currencies, often with a promise to ensure that the value remains 1 for 1 at all times. Stablecoins therefore could potentially serve as a substitute for a commercial bank deposit. Both stablecoins 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  and banks are offering a representation of what a private company owes its customers – an IOU – which can be transferred as a means to pay for things. Both are promising (or at least aspiring to) stability against and interchangeability with money issued by central banks. It is possible in this context that stablecoins could scale up and grow rapidly, and become widely used as a trusted form of sterling-based retail payments. To be clear – I don’t know if this will happen.

But these opportunities can only be realised if new forms of digital money are safe – which means recognising and properly regulating the elements that are age-old. I am grateful to Morgane Fouche, Matthew Osborne, Stephanie Haffner, Robert Page and James Pople-Hoskins for their help in preparing these remarks. I am also grateful to Antoine Lallour, Nicholas Butt, David Copple, Shiv Chowla, Andrew Hauser and Victoria Cleland for their helpful comments. 1 Private money mainly takes the form of deposits held in bank accounts. The only form of public money  accessible to the general public is cash, in the form of coins and notes. 2 This is based on the amount of cash held by the public as a share of total cash and sight deposits. See Part V  of ‘A millennium of macroeconomic data’, Research dataset, Bank of England. 3 See LINK News and media contact, 'Coronavirus Crisis means cash use down but UK still withdrawing  £ from ATMs each week’Opens in a new window; See LINK, 'Statistics and trends’Opens in a new window; See chart A in ‘New forms of Digital money’ DP, June 2021. Moreover, in practice, the UK authorities remain committed to ensuring access to cash to those that need it. The Bank, HMT, FCA and the PSR have been working together on the Joint Authorities Cash Strategy group to monitor the use of cash, ATM availability, and ensure cash remains available despite the impacts of Covid. 4 See the example of the Corralito in Argentina.
Hence, the abovementioned services are becoming more and more decentralized, based on public and private partnership, and privatized. The development of information and communication technologies is another factor that has an impact on the functioning of the state. Firstly, it facilitates the switch from one-way communication channels to interactive two-way communication, which leads to, inter alia, greater activity of citizens and business community and better adjustment of services provided by the public sector to the needs of citizens. Secondly, the growth of the ICT sector contributes to increased innovation demonstrated by the public  2  BIS Review 23/2006  sector worldwide, in other words, altered procedures employed by the public sector gradually cease to be of a reproductive nature, and the public sector becomes one of the leaders of innovation in the services sector. Consequently, the methods of functioning of the state and performance of its functions are irreversibly heading towards the use of technologies and assume the form of estrategy, e-policy, eregulations and e-services. Therefore, we are facing the e-reality in which e-administration has its liabilities towards e-economy. In the past, the public sector used to follow the private sector and apply the best methods of organization management, customer relations maintenance and management or use of technologies, which all lead to increased efficiency of activities. In the contemporary global e-economy the public sector has a much more difficult and demanding role to play.

Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 23/2006  7