samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But at the September meeting the Executive Board’s assessment was that there would not be any more raises and that the interest rate might need to be cut during 2009. The decision was reached by a narrow majority. Three members of the Executive Board supported the decision, while three were against it, and the Governor’s casting vote was decisive. I was part of the minority who wished to hold the repo rate unchanged at the September meeting and to see a slightly faster reduction in the rate in the future. The main reasons put forward by the majority for raising the interest rate were that inflation had continued to rise and was far above the target, that inflation expectations remained high and that cost pressures had increased. The majority assessment was that it was necessary to raise the repo rate to prevent the increases in energy and food prices from spreading to other areas. The reasons for lowering the interest rate path included the fall in the oil price and other commodity prices over the summer. Another reason was that growth had slowed down more than expected, both in Sweden and abroad. The turmoil in the financial markets was of course also included in the picture. BIS Review 119/2008  5  My own assessment I personally had entered a reservation as early as July against the forecast that it would be necessary to raise the repo rate a couple more times during the autumn.

When these corrections occur, the result could be weak development of the economy over a long period of time. We have therefore acted to reduce the risk of this scenario to some extent and to contribute to a calmer adjustment in house prices. We have done this by highlighting the risks entailed in the rapid credit expansion and by beginning the interest rate increases that were already on the table slightly earlier than would otherwise have been justified. I would at the same time like to emphasise that this does not mean we have downgraded our inflation target. On the contrary! We believe that monetary policy that is active and forward-looking, but at the same time cautious, is the best means of safeguarding low inflation and a stable economy in the long term. The current situation and future prospects How do we regard future developments? Before I answer this question it may be worth a reminder that the forecasts we have made are based on the assumption that the repo rate will develop in line with  4  BIS Review 101/2006  market expectations (Figure 9). This means that the repo rate is expected to rise slightly further in future. International economic activity has been good in recent years. There are numerous indications that international growth will be relatively strong in future, although it is expected to slow down slightly (Figure 10). Despite the good international economic activity, prices are expected to rise at a fairly moderate rate.
Chart 8 shows how, with the stimulus measures in place, the MPC balanced the trade-off we faced by placing some weight on output stabilisation consistent with the Committee’s remit. Over the autumn, demand growth remained more resilient than had been expected, particularly consumer spending and to a lesser extent the housing market. That contrasted with the less sanguine assessment of financial markets as illustrated by the further, sharp decline in the sterling exchange rate over the autumn. Ultimately, the tension between consumer strength on the one hand and the more pessimistic expectations of markets on the other will be resolved. In the MPC’s November projections, this resolution is expected to occur as imported inflation begins to weigh in coming months on people’s real incomes, slowing consumption growth. This moderation in household spending reinforces the cumulative effects of a pick-up in uncertainty on investment. As a consequence, growth is expected to remain below past averages for the next few years. One corroborating indicator of this potential deceleration is that the UK expansion is increasingly consumption-led. Evidence from the past quarter century across a range of countries suggests episodes of consumption-led growth tends to be both slower and less durable. This is because consumption growth eventually outpaces earnings growth, increasing debt and making demand more sensitive to changes in employment and income. At present, households appear to be entirely looking through Brexit-related uncertainties. The saving rate has fallen towards its pre-crisis lows, and consumer borrowing has accelerated notably.

Guarding against Gresham’s Law I have spoken about the good, bad, and ugly of crypto tokens. To be more exact, it is the uses of crypto tokens that assume these qualities. Like Money, crypto tokens can a force for good or bad. Lest we forget, money is not the root of all evil; it is the love of money that is so. The same applies to crypto tokens – it is the enchantment with these tokens as a way to make a quick buck and their abuse for illicit activities that are at the root of our concerns. There is an old axiom in economics called Gresham’s Law, which is loosely interpreted as “bad money drives out good”. We must work together – regulators and the crypto industry – to make sure that bad money does not take hold. And that a new generation of crypto tokens emerges, that harnesses the potential of blockchain technology for social good while mitigating the risks today’s tokens pose. This is a future worth securing and I hope that some of the talents gathered in this hall will help to make it happen. Thank you. 5/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches
BIS central bankers’ speeches  19  Table 1: Population and GDP per capita growth since 1million BC GDP per capita  Population  Year  Annual % change  Annual % change  -1m to –10000 BC  0.000  0.000  -10000 to –1000 BC  0.003  0.028  -1000 BC to 1 AD  -0.015  0.122  1 to 1000 AD  0.020  0.044  1000 to 1500 AD  0.007  0.095  1500 to 1750 AD  0.102  0.211  1750 to 2000 AD  1.452  0.870  Source: DeLong (1998) and Kremer (1993). Table 2: Technology growth since 1 AD Technology growth rate Year  Annual % change  1 to 1000 AD  0.001  1000 to 1500 AD  0.025  1500 to 1750 AD  0.045  (a)  1.034  1750 to present  Source: Clark (2009); Hills, Thomas and Dimsdale (2010). Notes: Technology growth prior to 1750 here is estimated by Clark (2009), assuming that the population stabilizes at a level at which the land per person produces just subsistence income. (a) Growth rate based on average annual TFP growth in the UK between 1850 and 2009 in Hills, Thomas and Dimsdale (2010).

Experimental research over the past 50 years, by psychologists and neurologists, has taught us a great deal both about the determinants of patience and how it affects behaviour. This can perhaps provide insights into some of the historical drivers of a more patient, and hence higher growth, society. One important driver of patience is income and wealth. The lower income, the more impatient is human decision-making. 37 Why? Because surviving on limited means absorbs huge amounts of cognitive energy. 38 It causes a neurological focus on the near-term. This myopic thinking has been found in everything from under-saving for retirement to over-borrowing from pay-day lenders. In developing countries, it may help explain poverty traps. 39 During the Malthusian era, much of the population operated at close to subsistence income levels. If experimental evidence is any guide, that is likely to have generated an acute sense of societal short-termism. This may have manifested itself in, for example, a failure to invest in physical and human capital, retarding growth. Poverty and impatience would have been self-reinforcing, in a Malthusian poverty trap. The raising of incomes above subsistence levels which occurred after 1800 will have reversed that cycle. It will have boosted patience and laid the foundations for higher saving and investment and, ultimately, growth. In other words, after the Industrial Revolution patience may have created its own virtuous reward, endogenous growth style. Technological innovation has also been found to influence patience.
We have also underscored time and again that the rule only helps us part of the way. There may be reason to depart from it. The Riksbank’s clarification of monetary policy in 1999 explains when this may be the case. One reason is the occurrence of a shock that has caused inflation to deviate considerably from target. In such cases there may be a risk of undesirable fluctuations in the real economy if we were to try to bring inflation back to target within the normal time horizon. We have to be able to make allowances for such circumstances; otherwise they could have serious repercussions for the real economy. And our monetary policy framework provides scope for this. But no two situations are ever exactly the same. It is necessary to have a thorough analysis on which to base our standpoints and an explanation for our decisions. Another reason to deviate from the policy rule is if inflation is judged to be influenced by temporary effects, i.e. effects that will diminish without any monetary policy intervention. That, for example, is why we often focus our discussion on UND1X, the measure of underlying inflation that excludes the effects of indirect taxes and subsidies as well as interest rate changes. But it can also be a case of temporary supply shocks that are not expected to persist, such as the sharp rise in electricity prices at the turn of the year 2002/2003.

One of the by-products of the new technology is that it does enable banks to measure risk more precisely. The Committee intends therefore to exploit this by enabling banks to use an internal ratings-based approach to calculate the credit risk for various types of borrowers and consequently the amount of capital they need to hold. Less sophisticated banks will use a standardised approach where the risk weightings for various classes of borrower will be determined by external credit ratings. One feature that is particularly relevant to today’s discussion is that for the first time there will be an explicit capital charge for operational risk. This seems to be a timely move given the increased operational complexity introduced by technological change. The new Accord will be unveiled for further consultation at the beginning of next year. Although its implementation is still a few years away, I would strongly advise banks to start to prepare for it now, for example by upgrading their loan classification systems and beginning to measure and monitor operational risk. The new Capital Accord will be relevant not only to capital requirements but also to the pricing of risk. If regional banks wish to remain competitive with the global players operating in their territories, they will need to become more conscious of return on capital and the need to economise on the use of capital. There is one other aspect of the changing environment to which I believe banks should pay closer attention. This is what might be termed the rise of the consumer.
Growth is also uneven, with the short-term prospects more favourable for the group of the advanced economies, and paler for the emerging and developing world. The risks in the latter group, which accounts for almost 60% of the global GDP and has contributed with more than 80% of the global growth since 2008, seem to be large and strong enough to constrain the growth of the world as a whole. It is not only the relatively slow global recovery that is worrisome. The fact that downside risks to the baseline growth scenario are prevalent, accentuates the uncertainty and fragility of the growth outlook. What are the main risks that should be pinpointed? First, there is the economic transformation and rebalancing in China, which is moving away from the previous model of export- and investment-led growth based on manufacturing towards a larger reliance on private consumption and services. Second, we are observing a large fall in oil and commodity prices, often reflecting concerns over the subdued global demand. Third, there is the gradual normalisation of Fed policy rates as opposed to the continued quantitative easing in most other advanced economies and the divergent monetary policy in emerging and developing economies. From a medium-to-long term perspective, all these trends could have a positive effect. Still, they also have short-term consequences, which pose significant downward risks for the global economy.

Monetary and financial conditions Allow me to move on now to monetary and financial conditions. Since the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate, inflation has moved well into negative territory. This is chiefly attributable to imported goods prices, which in May were down roughly 5% year-on-year, mainly due to the fall in oil prices. Domestic inflation, meanwhile, remains in positive territory. Our inflation forecast shows that the period of negative inflation will be temporary; it is part of an adjustment process following the sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc. The SNB does not currently expect a sustained price decline or, indeed, a deflationary spiral with the associated harmful effects on economic activity and employment. Available surveys on inflation expectations of households and companies present a similar picture. Short-term inflation expectations have stabilised, albeit at a very low level. Long-term inflation expectations have remained virtually unchanged over the last half-year. 1 They remain within a range that is consistent with the SNB’s definition of price stability. Low inflation rates translate to low nominal interest rates. On the money market, short-term interest rates are close to the interest on sight deposits at the SNB of –0.75%; interest rates in Switzerland are thus lower than in most other countries. However, due to negative inflation, Switzerland’s real interest rates, which ultimately determine investment returns, are higher than its nominal rates. Moreover, they are also higher than real interest rates in other countries, such as the US, Germany and the UK.
In China, growth has slowed in the face of mobility restrictions imposed in line with the zero-COVID policy but inflation is not a problem and there is sufficient policy space to support growth. In emerging Asia, where the uptick in inflation has been more recent and less sharp, the lifting of mobility and travel restrictions is likely to spur a recovery in demand and  possibly some price pressures. Demand-pull price pressures have been accentuated by a variety of supply-side disruptions, worsening inflation. Supply chain frictions began to emerge in H2 last year, even before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Intermittent movement restrictions in various economies caused bottlenecks across production chains, for example by interrupting freight handling in major ports. The most significant supply shock has, of course, been the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia and Ukraine are major producers and exporters of oil and gas, and a variety of food grains and commodities. The disruption to these supplies has sparked inflationary effects across the world. The disruption of Russian oil and gas supplies to Europe is pushing up energy prices worldwide. The impact on fuel and electricity prices across the world has been almost instantaneous. The disruption of grain exports from Russia and Ukraine is having knock-on price effects across the food production chain. The two countries make up 25% of global exports of wheat and barley, and 14% of corn. These grains are used in a variety of foodstuff, whose prices have consequently been pushed up.

Norman T L Chan: Remarks at the Hong Kong Academy of Finance Inauguration Ceremony and fellowship conferment Welcome remarks by Mr Norman T L Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Hong Kong Academy of Finance Inauguration Ceremony cum Fellowship Conferment, Hong Kong, 26 June 2019. * * * The Honourable Paul Chan, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, 1. A very warm welcome to all of you for joining us today to witness the Inauguration Ceremony cum Fellowship Conferment of the Hong Kong Academy of Finance (AoF). 2. I strongly believe that the most crucial factor that differentiates an international financial centre (IFC) from the other aspiring financial centres is its superior “soft infrastructure” or “soft power”. I am sure you will agree with me that the quality and professionalism of the people in the financial services industry are the building blocks for the “soft infrastructure” that determines the competitiveness of an IFC. The mission of the Academy is to serve as a centre of excellence for developing financial leadership as well as a repository of knowledge in monetary and financial research, including applied research. 3. The AoF will develop and run a Leadership Development Programme to nurture financial leaders in Hong Kong. The Academy will invite senior management and promising talents from financial institutions, regulators, professional firms and academia in the field of finance to join as Members.
A director who (a) negligently or with intent to deceive, makes any false or misleading statement or entry or omits any statement or entry that should be made in any book, account, report or statement of the financial service provider, or (b) obstructs or endeavours to obstruct (i) the proper performance by an auditor of the auditor's duties in accordance with this provisions of this Act; or (ii) a lawful inspection of the service provider by a duly authorised inspector appointed by the Bank of Zambia, commits an offence and is liable on conviction to a fine or to imprisonment (Section 36). In addition to the provisions of the BFSA, the BoZ has put in place a number of regulations aimed at enhancing good corporate governance for the FSPs regulated by the BoZ, some of which are listed below: i.  BIS Review 99/2008  The Prohibition and Prevention of Money Laundering Act of 2001 (PPMLA) and the Anti-Money Laundering Directives obligate the board of directors to formulate anti-money laundering policies and ensure senior management implement these policies; and  9  ii. 5.6  The Corporate Governance Guidelines for Financial Institutions issued in November 2006 set forth a broad framework of fundamental corporate governance principles to guide the actions of the directors and managers of the institutions operating in Zambia. Sovereign credit rating for Zambia  The process of obtaining a credit rating for Zambia has reached an advanced stage.

Denny H Kalyalya: Financial access and sustainability of financial services in Zambia Paper presented by Dr Denny H Kalyalya, Deputy Governor Operations, Bank of Zambia, at The Zambia Institute of Chartered Accountants Annual Business Conference, Livingstone, 7-8 August 2008. * 1.0  *  *  Salutation  • The Guest of Honour • Chairperson • Distinguished participants • Ladies and Gentlemen It is an honour and privilege for the opportunity to make a presentation to this important ZICA Annual Conference. Before going any further allow me to convey the Governor’s sincere apologies for not being able to come due to prior commitments. He did also send his good wishes for a successful conference. 2.0  Introduction  In my brief intervention, I will endeavour to address the question of financial access and sustainability in Zambia. It is generally recognized that the financial sector plays a critical role in the mobilization of development finance and stimulation of economic growth and development in general. An efficient, broad-based and dynamic financial sector is an essential element in the attainment and maintenance of high rates of economic growth and sustainable development. Through their services, banks and non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), they provide an efficient mechanism for the allocation of savings and investment and they enable financial transactions to take place at minimum cost. To discuss the issues of financial access and sustainability in Zambia in a little more detail, our presentation is organized as follows.
As mentioned above, I understand that above all the reason behind might be our poor tradition in addition to the high degree of informality and a lot of other objective and subjective reasons. However, I think that the cause might be even the lack of detailed clarifications, and lack of informative publications, and lack of the propaganda in the public environment as well as in media. I think that in the propaganda spaces in the media more space should be given to the clarifications of special products, while launching of new products should be accompanied by standard advertising campaigns. Dear participants,  4  BIS Review 39/2005  Allow me that before closing my speech to express again my high appreciation on the Albanian Association of Banks, ensuring that Governor of Bank of Albania will always be its decent partner in the long path of institutional co-operation. I sincerely hope that this meeting of banking associations is an important step towards establishing a fruitful regional co-operation. I am personally committed, in future contacts with my colleagues of the region’s countries, to dedicate a special room to this co-operation, hoping that I will find on them a well-understanding and full support. I again wish you successful and fruitful proceedings of this meeting. Thank you. BIS Review 39/2005  5

13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  13  Chart 9: Pass through of ECB rate cuts to lending and deposit rates facilitated by TLTRO TLTRO I  TLTRO II  Per cent 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1  2010  2011  2012  2013  Household deposits EONIA ECB main refinancing rate  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  Loans ECB lending rate ECB deposit facility rate  Source: ECB. To sum up on liquidity and lending facilities, reforms over the crisis leave behind a much more comprehensive backstop to dysfunction in funding markets. Liquidity is available more freely, against a wider range of collateral and in all major currencies. Moreover, through careful calibration targeted lending schemes can lower the effective lower bound on interest rates, unlocking more stimulus. ----------------------------------------------------To return to where I started, the past ten years have spurred tremendous advances in the conduct of monetary policy. In this as in so many other respects, Europe has a rich past. And in part because of that past, it now has the possibility of a bright future. For a perspective on the challenges faced by central banks today I will hand over to Stan Fischer. 14  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  14