samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
With customers’ consent, banks can have direct, efficient access to a substantial body of data. That will enable them to offer the most suitable services to customers, or perform more precise and objective credit assessments. And that, in turn, will help banks address the pain points I mentioned. 27. Let me give you an example of what CDI could deliver. A family-run noodle shop which has problems getting bank credit can now choose to allow its bank to access historical turnover data from its point of sale terminals. With access to this data, and by using AI tools, the bank should be able to make an accurate forecast for the noodle shop’s sales. That means it can make a credit decision without having to first ask the owner for loan collateral. Hopefully, the noodle shop is successful and its sales rise above the projections in the bank’s model. Then its credit limit can automatically be increased by an appropriate amount. 28. Small importers and exporters might also benefit. Through CDI, they could authorise trade servicing platforms to allow their banks to access reliable trading data. This should help banks understand their customers’ trade counterparties, which can reduce money laundering risk. Because of this, the trading companies’ access to financing should improve, and their cost of borrowing should fall. 29. With CDI, our aim is to enable bank customers, particularly SMEs, to take more control of their own digital footprint, so that they can use their data to enhance their access to financial services. 30.

Page 9/9  Protectionism complicates monetary policy  Thomas J. Jordan Chairman of the Governing Board Swiss National Bank Volkswirtschaftliche Gesellschaft des Kantons Bern Berne, 31 October 2018  Chart 1  2  31.10.2018  Volkswirtschaftliche Gesellschaft des Kantons Bern | Thomas J. Jordan | © Swiss National Bank  Chart 2  3  31.10.2018  Volkswirtschaftliche Gesellschaft des Kantons Bern | Thomas J. Jordan | © Swiss National Bank  Chart 3  4  31.10.2018  Volkswirtschaftliche Gesellschaft des Kantons Bern | Thomas J. Jordan | © Swiss National Bank  Chart 4  5  31.10.2018  Volkswirtschaftliche Gesellschaft des Kantons Bern | Thomas J. Jordan | © Swiss National Bank  Chart 5  Greater uncertainty / appreciation of the CHF  6  31.10.2018  Volkswirtschaftliche Gesellschaft des Kantons Bern | Thomas J. Jordan | © Swiss National Bank  Chart 6  7  31.10.2018  Volkswirtschaftliche Gesellschaft des Kantons Bern | Thomas J. Jordan | © Swiss National Bank
Broadberry, S and O’Rourke, K (2010), “The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 1, 1700–1870”, ISBN: 978–0521708388. Brynjolfsson, E and McAfee, A (2014), “The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies”, ISBN: 978–1480577473. Buringh, E and Van Zanden, J (2009), “Charting the “Rise of the West”: Manuscripts and Printed Books in Europe, A Long-Term Perspective from the Sixth through Eighteenth Centuries”, The Journal of Economic History Vol 69 Issue 2. Caballero, R (2013), “The shortage of safe assets”, presentation given at the Bank of England in May 2013, available at: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/ccbs/cew2013/presentation_caballero. pdf. Carr, N (2008), “Is Google Making Us Stupid?”, Atlantic Magazine, available at: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/07/is-google-making-us-stupid/306868/. Carr, N (2011), “The Shallows: How the Internet is Changing the Way We Think, Read and Remember”, ISBN: 978–1848872271. Cass, D (1965), “Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation”, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol 32, No 3. Chui, M, Löffler, M and Roberts, R (2010), “The internet of things”, McKinsey Quarterly, available at: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/the_internet_of_things. 14  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Clark, G (2009), “A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World”, ISBN: 978–0691141282. Comin, D, Easterly, W, and Gong, E (2010), “Was the Wealth of Nations Determined in 1000 BC?”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics: Vol 2 No 3. Cowen, T (2011), “The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better”, Penguin eSpecial from Dutton.

My point is that the global conditions for growth will gradually improve and that the course of inflation will normalise. But this depends on decisions made abroad, which govern the real interest rate that we in Sweden have to relate to. Growth conditions in Sweden also depend on the Swedish economy's ability to constantly transform in an orderly manner. Monetary policy can function as a bridge over to a new normal situation. But the new normal will be determined by decisions that are beyond the central bank's control. 3  Another such period, but one in which completely different challenges arose, was the financial crisis 2008–2009. 4  See the minutes of the monetary policy meeting on 10 February 2016 and SvD Andrén Meiton 9 March 2015. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
And it is not unusual to begin a speech with a bit of flattery. But I mean this sincerely. The first line of defense helps keep problems small. It enhances a firm’s commitment to both its private and public purposes. It contributes materially to the trustworthiness of firms and the financial system, and therefore promotes financial stability. Today’s agenda promises to inform and to challenge, and to help the first line develop professionally as a distinct area of corporate controls. For my part, allow me to share some observations based on my work at the New York Fed. First, I want to discuss the risk of developing harmful silos in a three lines of defense model.2 Second, I want to encourage you to be creative and inclusive in your approach to the first line of defense. You are probably already consulting with technology specialists. But I am also thinking of fields such as behavioral science. The observations of neuroscientists and psychologists have disrupted the field of economics, and may help firms better manage risk. Third, I will offer some thoughts on the development of professional attributes in the first line of defense, especially community and courage. Three lines of defense, not three silos of defense Since the financial crisis, we have seen a proliferation of the three lines of defense model across the financial industry. The official sector has helped promote this framework.3 The three lines of defense model is a useful framework, but it is a means to an end.

Looking back at the financial crisis and more recent scandals, there must have been people who recognized early that what was happening was wrong, but remained silent.16 As the first line of defense develops and convenes in gatherings like this, it is important to remember one other professional value: courage. Professional courage is key to the appropriate functioning of lawyers inside corporations.17 In what has been called the “partner/guardian” dilemma—a bit of a misnomer since the “dilemma” is really a good thing—lawyers are supposed to assist the firm in its mission and protect its longterm reputation, its good name as a store of value.18 That takes courage, especially when an action is technically legal but otherwise wrong or just plain stupid. Your roles in the first line of defense also require professional courage. You are partners in your business. You are also guardians of your firm, the investment of its shareholder owners, the trust of its customers, and the expectations of public authorities. That is not an easy task. You have my sympathy. And you have my thanks—not just for being an attentive audience, but also for all of your good work. 1 Pinchas Becker, Thomas Noone, and Angela Sun assisted in preparing these remarks. 2 See generally Gillian Tett, The Silo Effect (2015).
Petar Goshev: Promotion of the European Fund for Southeast Europe – EFSE in the Republic of Macedonia Welcoming speech by Mr Petar Goshev, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the first official presentation of the European Fund for Southeast Europe in the Republic of Macedonia, Skopje, 1 March 2007. *  *  *  Distinguished ladies and gentlemen! Allow me to express my pleasure, more precisely the pleasure of all employees of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia for being hosts of the first official presentation of the European Fund for Southeast Europe in the Republic of Macedonia. Therefore, I greet the representatives of the European Fund for Southeast Europe, wishing them a warm welcome to our country, where, I sincerely assure them, they could fully, equally, safely and more ambitiously offer their financial services to the market of the highly open Macedonian economy, also encouraged, of course, from their previous positive experience they acquired through their cooperation with the Export and Credit Bank, AD Skopje. I would also like to especially welcome all of you that responded to the invitation by attending this presentation, thus de facto showing respect and interest in yet another new financial initiative in the Republic of Macedonia. Certainly, there is a deep reason for such respect and interests.

Against this backdrop, I am going to focus my remarks today on bank profitability. Returning banks to sustainable rates of profitability is a key step towards ensuring that the sector remains resilient, particularly in the face of slowing economic momentum and the potential for market distress. Euro area banks have certainly improved their profitability in recent years. Their return on equity reached 6% at the end of 2018, up from 3% two years earlier. But their profitability remains below their long-run cost of capital, which most banks estimate to be in the range of 8-10%.1Low profitability prospects translate into low bank valuations, as observed in price-to-book ratios well below one, hindering the ability to raise capital, where needed. European bank profitability has been structurally weak since well before unconventional monetary policy measures were introduced. Broadly speaking, the sources of that weakness can be divided into cyclical factors, cost inefficiencies and competitive challenges arising from outside the sector. Before discussing these sources, let me begin by reminding you why bank profitability is important. Why bank profitability matters Clearly, bank profitability matters for financial stability. Profits are the first line of defence against losses from credit impairment. Retained earnings are an important source of capital, enabling banks to build strong buffers to absorb additional losses.
Moreover, underlying inflation continues to be muted. The weaker economic momentum is slowing the adjustment of inflation towards our aim. At the same time, supportive financing conditions, favourable labour market dynamics and rising wage growth continue to underpin the euro area expansion and gradually rising inflation pressures. Today’s decisions will support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term. Significant monetary policy stimulus will continue to be provided by our forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates, reinforced by the reinvestments of the sizeable stock of acquired assets and the new series of TLTROs. In any event, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  sustained manner. Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP increased by 0.2%, quarter on quarter, in the fourth quarter of 2018, following growth of 0.1% in the third quarter. Incoming data have continued to be weak, in particular in the manufacturing sector, reflecting the slowdown in external demand compounded by some country and sector-specific factors. The impact of these factors is turning out to be somewhat longerlasting, which suggests that the near-term growth outlook will be weaker than previously anticipated. Looking ahead, the effect of these adverse factors is expected to unwind.

The Governing Council welcomes the ongoing work and urges further specific and decisive steps to complete the banking union and the capital markets union. We are now at your disposal for questions. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
Third question: with the gradual shift in Singapore’s economic structure towards services (which are typically regarded as being non-tradable), does the exchange rate have as much impact on aggregate demand and prices in the economy? It is true that services have indeed contributed more to GDP growth recently. But a significant portion of these services are exportable, such as financial, IT and professional services. External-oriented manufacturing  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  and services sectors together continue to account for more than half of Singapore’s GDP. The fundamental structure of the economy as an export-dependent one has not changed. Firms – both MNCs and SMEs – have consistently highlighted the importance of keeping the exchange rate stable for planning and investment purposes. The exchange rate continues to play a key role in household and business decisions, and is an important equilibrating price for the economy. Calibration of monetary policy responses So, the monetary policy framework centred on the exchange rate remains valid. But has its calibration been sufficiently responsive to recent challenges to price stability? The chief consideration underpinning the stance of monetary policy in recent years has been to anchor inflation expectations and contain the risk of a wage-price spiral arising from the short-term effects of economic restructuring. Since April 2010, the policy band of the Singapore Dollar nominal effective exchange rate has been on a modest and gradual appreciation path. The nominal effective exchange rate has strengthened by about 3% per annum on average during this period.

Buyers were limited to borrowing only 50–60% of the total purchase price of the car. Loans had to be repaid within five years. COE premiums for cars have adjusted downwards by about 25%. Macroprudential policy in Singapore is still work-in-progress, as is the case elsewhere. The measures have achieved some degree of success in the property and car markets but it is too early to declare victory. As with traditional macroeconomic policy, these macroprudential measures will be recalibrated as market conditions change. There are many unknowns in the theory and practice of macroprudential policy. We need to better understand the transmission mechanisms through which our various measures operate, their inter-relationships with one another, and unintended consequences or distortions they may create. The field is ripe for further research and, I hope, will challenge the intellectual curiosity of scholars, such as those assembled here this evening. In fact, the ABFER can play a very important role in this regard. Policymakers all over the world, including us here at the MAS, have been thrust into a vastly different environment. We need to update existing policy paradigms and even develop new ones. It is my hope that the collaborative network created by the ABFER will help foster a vibrant research culture and provide thought leadership on the important policy debates confronting this part of the world. MAS is happy to sponsor and support the ABFER. Conclusion Let me summarise my main points.
As we all agree that it is impossible for the banks to totally know and guarantee for the cleanness of each of their clients, then we must accept the fact that the lacking of suspicious transactions reports means that the bank: •  has difficulties in setting up its structures to ensure the real analysis of the risk profile of its client;  2  BIS Review 49/2005  •  doesn’t have a good understanding of the problem and has been adopting formalism in fulfilling the law requirements;  •  is not taking a proactive role, to understand other relevant institutions difficulties and to come forward with reasonable and acceptable solutions, in accordance with the spirit of the law. If a bank has chosen to act in formalism and if this gets a widespread adoption in the entire financial system, I think we really risk that this approach be counterproductive to the financial industry firstly. It would be somehow normal in this instance to think about lowering the minimum threshold required by law, as a possible solution to avoid formalism and to capture potential cases of ML that lie below the current threshold. Hence, we risk imposing on ourselves a development with a much higher cost of compliance and potentially more formalism, when we consider the difficulties that exist in analysing the reported information in AML Directorate. In this context, I would like to highlight that formalism in terms of law implementation is unacceptable and harmful.

In another case, the employees of a bank that reported a suspicious transaction, were called and probed in the prosecutor office as being those the persons of actually being involved in ML. The reporting subjects and the institutions that implement the law, must define among each other certain procedures that would eliminate the occurrence of such case and that ensure the protection of confidentiality of the persons that have filed the suspicious reports. As long as this element is not totally ensured, any other discussion on the matter risks being a purely theoretical one, without much practical values. In conclusion, as a Governor, I must say that I would encourage a better cooperation among the institutions that are subject or that implement the law on AML. At the same time, Bank of Albania as the supervisory institution of its licensees will promote a stronger contribution by banks in Anti Money Laundering requirements implementation. In exerting our function, we shall not be limited to the verification of the existence and the functioning of the internal structures and procedures, but will deepen further on assessing the support the management structures of the banks, give to the real implementation of the AML internal policies. The position of a central bank is, according to the law, very comfortable, but playing the proactive role of a responsible central bank, showing the concrete implementation of this responsibility, we will intensify our efforts together with the other actors of interest to enable a better implementation of the law on money laundering prevention.
Over the same period, employment grew at its fastest rate over any peacetime decade since 1920, raising, probably temporarily, the growth rate of the supply capacity of the economy. Output growth was noticeably faster than its post-war average. Behind that expansion were three significant structural changes: one at home and two overseas. At home, there has been a sequence of reforms to the labour market which began in the 1980s and have continued since. Reforms such as the New Deal and Working Tax Credit have encouraged benefit recipients back to work. Changes to pay bargaining and a decline in the share of wage settlements covered by collective bargaining have made the labour market more flexible. Those reforms reduced the rate of structural unemployment. The two other structural changes reflect globalisation and the openness of the British economy. The first is the rise in the prices of the goods and, especially, services that we export relative to the prices of goods and services that we buy from abroad. The so-called terms of trade have improved markedly over the past decade. Countries such as China and India are now major players in the world trading system, and the prices of manufactured goods globally have fallen as a result. That has produced changes in the pattern of international trade, and in our own industrial structure. Although those changes were, and are, uncomfortable to make, they benefit us all as consumers.

I am pleased to inform the public that based on the outcome of the review and stress test, the Governing Council have concluded the following: 1. The Bulgarian banking system is stable. The main indicator of a bank’s financial resilience, the ratio of bank common equity tier one capital to its risk-weighted assets, or the CET 1 ratio, remains significantly above the required minimum regulatory requirements on a system level and is above the EU average as announced in the latest European stress test. The CET1 ratio adjusted for the results of the asset quality review is 18.9% on system-wide level compared to the minimum regulatory requirement of 4.5%. The stress test indicated that if the latest 2018 macroeconomic forecasts materialize, the CET1 ratio would increase to 22.2%. In the case of a severe economic crisis, which is very unlikely, the CET1 ratio would decline to 14.4%. For the European banks, the results are significantly lower – 13.9% and 9.4% respectively. Therefore, banks’ capital adequacy is strong and banks have the capacity to absorb shocks in unfavorable market conditions. 2. The capital adequacy of each bank after potential adjustments from the asset quality review remains above the minimum regulatory requirements. Indeed, the individual results vary across banks. Follow-up plans have been developed in line with individual results and include measures aimed at maintaining existing capital buffers for some banks or increasing capital buffers and decreasing risk-weighted assets for others.