samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Jessica Chew Cheng Lian: Launch of FSPB Professional Code for the Financial Services Industry Welcome address by Ms Jessica Chew Cheng Lian, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Launch of FSPB Professional Code for the Financial Services Industry, Kuala Lumpur, 24 May 2018. * * * I am delighted to be here to witness the launch of the Financial Services Professional Board (FSPB) Professional Code for the Financial Services Industry. Thank you for allowing me an opportunity to offer some brief remarks this morning on the importance of this initiative from Bank Negara Malaysia’s perspective. Let me begin by saying that the launch of the Code comes at a time when issues of culture and conduct in the financial industry have become an important focal point for financial regulators. After a hive of activity largely focused on strengthening prudential rules and standards, there is an acknowledgement that behaviour is ultimately regulated by something that runs deeper than rulebooks. It is not an easy thing to put your finger on. Regulators have talked about “the way things get done” in an institution, or “the human element in everyday decisions”. We like to think of it as how one behaves when no one is watching. On this score, the financial industry could do better. Despite much publicity and widespread efforts to tackle the issue, incidents of misconduct continue to cast a dark shadow over the financial services industry across the world.

We will continue to pursue investigations and enforcement actions into serious conduct breaches to the full extent of powers provided under laws administered by the Bank. Beyond the limits of the Bank’s powers, the Bank 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  maintains close cooperation with other authorities to facilitate investigations and enforcement actions. Conclusion Building trust is not easy. It takes hard work, a determination to do the right thing and confidence to make judgements in situations that are not always well-defined. Taken in this context, the work of the FSPB serves as an important anchor for decisions and actions that will engender trust in the financial industry. In a fast moving world, a strong commitment to a professional code of conduct provides the assurance that the public seeks – that financial institutions and employees are held to and will consistently demonstrate high standards of professional and ethical conduct. I hope that the industry will continue to lend its strong support to the FSPB’s work. Following today’s launch of the Professional Code, the Bank would urge financial institutions and professional bodies to reflect the standards set out in the Code in the values and conduct that you demand of your staff, agents and members. This needs to move beyond symbolic gestures, to the diligent implementation of policies and programs that promote the desired culture.
This year, as explained in Malta’s Convergence Programme 2004-2007, the general government deficit is expected to fall to just above 5% of GDP, which is still, however, one of the highest ratios in the EU. The persistence of the fiscal deficit has resulted in a rapid accumulation of government debt, which as a percentage of GDP trebled between 1990 and last year to around 70%. There is clearly no alternative to the fiscal consolidation envisaged in the Convergence Programme because, if the deficit is left unchecked at this year’s level, the debt to GDP ratio would exceed 80% by 2010. The fact that this heavy burden of debt has been accumulated to a large extent to finance recurrent spending rather than to build up income-generating assets is a matter of some concern. 1  2  Except where otherwise specified, fiscal data refer to the Consolidated Fund. BIS Review 67/2004  A further undesirable consequence of this behaviour is an increasingly unmanageable debt-servicing burden. This year the Government is spending Lm1 out of every Lm8 of tax revenue merely to service its debt. Put differently, the fiscal deficit would be just one-tenth of its actual level were it not for debt-servicing costs, which now amount to around 95% of expenditure on health and 90% of that on education. This is not a healthy state of affairs. Not only does interest on the debt increase the fiscal deficit, but it also crowds out those expenditures which should be receiving priority.

Michael C Bonello: Fiscal reform - an imperative for sustainable growth and development Speech by Mr Michael C Bonello, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, at the Institute of Financial Services Annual Dinner, St Julians, 11 November 2004. *  *  *  I should first of all like to thank you, Mr. President, for inviting me to your annual dinner and for the opportunity to share my thoughts once again with such a distinguished audience. I must also congratulate you on your recent election as President of IFS - Malta and wish you and your Committee every success in your endeavours to ensure that the Institute’s educational programmes remain relevant in today’s complex financial services environment. As you rightly pointed out in your first message to your members, in a situation which is rapidly evolving, “we must be prepared to embrace change.” I have a similar message to convey tonight. Inspired by the words of George Washington that “There is no practice more dangerous than that of borrowing money”, mine is essentially an appeal to the country to leave behind its spendthrift ways and to learn to live within its means. I shall therefore make a case for fiscal reform. Now some might wonder why a central bank governor should be so concerned about the state of the country’s public finances. Put simply, the reason is that a persistent excessive deficit situation represents a potential threat both to price and financial stability, which are key objectives of most central banks today.
The technique involved generating random numbers and comparing them with probabilities derived from theory. By doing this for a large number of possible neutron paths, he painstakingly painted a picture of the transport of neutrons. Fermi had, by hand, constructed the first agent-based model. These models were about to get a machine which could do these large-scale computations for them. Assembled at Los Alamos during World War II was a dream team of the great and good in science, including John von Neumann, Richard Feynman, Niels Bohr and Robert Oppenheimer. Von Neumann himself offered use of one of the first-ever computers to perform neutron calculations. That exercise culminated in the hydrogen bomb. ABMs had found their first real-world application. 11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  11  Figure 2: John von Neumann  Figure 3: The hydrogen bomb  Source: LANL (public domain). John von Neumann in the 1940s (image available here). Source: The Official CTBTO Photostream (CC-BY-2.0). An atmospheric nuclear test conducted by the U.S. at Enewetak Atoll on 1 November 1952 (image available here). (b) Military Planning By 1947, the use of random numbers in computation had a name which reflected its probabilistic nature – 3  Monte Carlo, home of the casino. In a lecture in 1948, von Neumann described the idea of cellular automata - artificial systems of cells exhibiting life-like behaviour which evolved according to simple rules of behaviour (von Neumann et al (1966), Sarkar (2000)).

The longer these gaps continue to build, the greater the ultimate adjustment required, and the greater the risks that accompany that process. What does this mean for economic policy in the United States and the rest of the world? The conventional policy prescription includes the encouragement of higher public savings in the United States, the implementation of structural reforms designed to increase flexibility and raise potential growth rates in economies outside the United States, and movement toward increased exchange rate flexibility. The principal rationale for each of these policies is independent of the external imperative. But the fact that these policies would contribute to a benign external adjustment process strengthens the case for action on these fronts. Improving the U.S. fiscal position is the most effective means we have available to reduce our vulnerability during this prolonged period of adjustment. The United States needs to produce a substantial reduction in its structural deficit over the medium term and begin to reduce the more dramatic longer term gap between resources and commitments. And the United States needs to restore a reasonable cushion in its structural budget balance to help deal with future shocks. If we are unable to begin to generate more confidence in the capacity of the U.S. political system to produce these improvements, we would face a greater risk of future increases in risk premia.
The quantity of narrow money (those reserve holdings plus banknotes in issue) is also set by control of the Bank’s balance sheet: either by adjusting the stock of purchased assets or by adjusting the stock of secured lending to the banking system. In respect of this latter policy lever, the Bank’s executive and its board of directors (Court) are ultimately responsible for management of the Bank’s balance sheet, but there are formal agreements in place such that if operations need to be conducted for monetary or financial stability motivations, then the appropriate committees are consulted and will ultimately will make the decision 9. Distinguishing the FPC and PRA’s instruments takes us into more interesting territory. The FPC can make recommendations to pretty much anyone about anything that would help meet its objectives. That’s very wide ranging but effectiveness depends on those recommendations being accepted and implemented. That can only be guaranteed where there is effective coordination between the FPC and those to whom the recommendations are made. PRA, FCA, Bank and HMT all fall into that category. The FPC’s most enforceable powers (of direction) relate to setting the counter-cyclical capital buffer and sectoral capital requirements which they can direct the PRA to implement across all deposit takers. A leverage ratio is likely to be added in due course and the Government have also stated that they intend to grant other powers to the FPC to ensure that it has sufficient policies to address issues arising from the housing market.

It is responsible for promoting effective competition, ensuring that relevant markets function well, and for the conduct regulation of all financial services firms including all those authorised and regulated by the PRA. This includes acting to prevent market abuse and ensuring that consumers get a fair deal from financial firms. The FCA also operates the prudential regulation of financial services firms not supervised by the PRA, such as asset managers and independent financial advisers. In consequence it regulates a much larger number of firms than the PRA – over 50,000. But the FCA and PRA have a joint MoU and co-operate closely on a range of matters, most especially for those firms which are regulated by both ie by the PRA for prudential matters and by the FCA for conduct. Policy co-ordination basics The theoretical conditions under which one can achieve a number of different economic policy objectives at the same time was long ago embedded in the Tinbergen counting rule 6, named after the great Dutch Nobel prize winning economist. A necessary condition is that  3  In addition to Mark Carney as Governor, the proposed internal members from May 2015 will be Andrew Bailey as Deputy Governor and CEO of the PRA; Nemat Shafik as Deputy Governor for Banking and Markets; Jon Cunliffe as Deputy Governor for Financial Stability; Paul Fisher as Deputy Head and Executive Director at the PRA. 4  As I speak the independent members are Sandy Boss, Iain Cornish, Charles Randall and Martin Wheatley as CEO of the FCA.
We are uncertain as to the functioning of the economy and how long it will take for the resource shortages observed in some sectors of the Norwegian economy to translate into higher inflationary pressures. This may warrant small steps in interest-rate setting. Employment is now rising more rapidly than expected. Corporate earnings are rising sharply, with higher growth in corporate demand for credit. The sharp increase in household debt is persisting. House price inflation remains high. Prices for oil and several other commodities have picked up further. At the same time, the underlying rise in consumer prices remains low. So far, a tighter labour market does not seem to have resulted in higher-than-expected pay increases, but there is a risk that wage growth may subsequently rise faster than projected. The krone is stronger than assumed. Overall, there are not sufficient grounds for changing the outlook for inflation and output or the risk assessment. Thank you for your attention. 6  BIS Review 35/2006

During the previous year, this appreciation was 2.8 percent. The lek-foreign currency interest rate spread, though downward during three latest years, continued to be at positive levels. Economic developments during 2006 have sustained a stable domestic currency. The lek’s appreciating pressures have been concentrated mainly on July-August and December. Besides the seasonal entry of foreign currency, which is the main factor of the lek’s appreciation over this period, the key interest rate increase has also been reflected in the market. The high foreign currency supply over this period has been absorbed partly by the Bank of Albania’s interventions, in respect of the target on the rise of net international reserve and in compliance with the country’s overall macroeconomic program. 7. Monetary policy instruments  Fixed-price one-week repurchase agreement is the main instrument employed during 2006. According to the liquidity situation, the Bank of Albania has switched from repurchase agreements to reverse agreements, while the maturity term has changed from weekly to quarterly. This spectre of movements has been imposed by seasonal factors, by the budget behaviour and by the need to reveal certain monetary policy signals. To meet longer-term needs of the market for liquidity during the four last months of 2006, four Treasury bill outright purchase transactions were carried out, at a total nominal value of ALL 3.2 billion.
Main drivers of the improvement in the current account balance will be the recovery in exports and the weaker imports due to real exchange rate. Figure 5. Current Account Balance (CAB) (12-Month Cumulative, % of GDP) 0 -1  CAB/GDP  CAB/GDP (excl. gold)  -2 -3 -3,9 -4 -4,1  -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10  1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  Source: CBRT. We think that exports will be one of the main drivers of growth in 2017. The main contribution to exports is expected from the European demand. Turkish exports are highly sensitive to the demand from Europe which constitute more than half of our total exports. Latest projections suggest that EU demand will continue to support Turkish exports in the forthcoming period (Figure 6). Moreover, recently improved relations with our neighbors have also started contributing to the export growth again after a long stagnation period. Recently, there is some slight recovery in exports to our main major trading partners such as Iraq and Russia. The recovery process is expected to continue throughout 2017. Overall, we anticipate a sizeable contribution from exports to growth in 2017. Figure 6.

Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy in Turkey Remarks by Murat Çetinkaya Governor Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey at J.P. Morgan Turkey Macro and Credit Conference London  9 February 2017  Dear Participants, My speech will try to elaborate on the recent macroeconomic outlook, monetary policy framework and the coordinated policy actions to support the fundamentals of the Turkish economy. 1. Macroeconomic Outlook Turkish economy was hit by concurrent shocks in recent years. Geopolitical tensions, global shocks, security related issues and a failed coup attempt have created significant policy challenges. Despite the intensity and size of the shocks in recent years, the growth rate has been quite robust until recently, outpacing emerging market average by a large margin (Figure 1). The resilience of growth in recent years can be attributed to factors such as prudent macroprudential policies reducing the sensitivity of economic activity to capital flow volatility, dynamic domestic market, market flexibility of exports, and the fall in energy prices. Figure 1. Growth Rates in Turkey and Emerging Economies (Percentage Change, Annual) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Developing Countries excluding China and India Turkey*  -2  12.16  09.16  06.16  03.16  12.15  09.15  06.15  03.15  12.14  09.14  06.14  03.14  12.13  09.13  06.13  03.13  12.12  09.12  06.12  03.12  -4  * Forecast for 2016 Q4.
On the other hand, our forecasts for the real economy are not as accurate as the inflation forecasts, although they compare fairly well with the time series model’s forecasts. Our forecasts also compare fairly well with those of other forecasters. The result of the comparison with other forecasters shows that our GDP forecasts up to one year ahead are often among the most accurate. This also applies to the CPI, but here the difference is smaller compared with the NIER and the Consensus panel. This does not mean that we have not occasionally made considerable forecasting errors. But the errors are not so systematic that there is reason to believe they are due to inadequate forecasting methods. And nor does this mean that we cannot or do not wish to become even better. We are constantly working to improve our methods. In some areas we need to work extra hard to improve our forecasting performance. One such area is productivity. It is important that we continue to regularly assess monetary policy, and particularly with regard to our forecasts, both in our annual assessments and in other ways. This is necessary both to be able to gain better knowledge of which variables are difficult to forecast and to see where it is necessary to develop methods and analysis. A major advantage of publishing our forecasts is that external experts can also evaluate us. Thank you for inviting me here today! Figure 1.

Against the background of this interest to higher education in economics, the VUZF University gained a reputation as one of the most attractive higher education establishments for young people seeking the optimum combination between theoretical knowledge and practical training. One of the reasons is that VUZF University is known for its policy of attracting as priority professors of great experience, acclaimed as practiced professionals in their area of expertise. This is very gratifying for me, because as an employer in large financial institutions since 1997 I have been aware that the discrepancy between theoretical knowledge and practice is a serious issue facing newly-minted economists upon their graduation. And practical experience gives a great momentum at the beginning of any young person’s career – because it not only teaches them specific professional skills, but also develops their comprehensive qualities, such as team work skills, efficient time management, motivation to seek alternative solutions in a competitive environment, etc. VUZF University however is not just a place of education, it is a centre of research, discussions and generation of ideas. Today’s forum is another proof of this. A year ago, again before the audience of a scientific conference organized by VUZF University, I expressed my purely professional dissatisfaction with the fact that we rarely hear the prudent voice of the Bulgarian academia.
Operational risk and infrastructure failures have played a prominent role in past financial crises, and the infrastructure weaknesses that have characterized the credit derivatives markets since their inception are an ongoing source of concern. The major market participants, both the dealers and the traditional and non-traditional investors, are in the process of improving the infrastructure that supports these markets. The changes underway to clean up the backlog of unconfirmed trades and to automate the entire post-trade-processing environment will help reduce operational risk in the derivatives market and reduce some sources of uncertainty that could exacerbate a market shock. The efforts underway to reach agreement on an approach for settlement in events of default are important for addressing the risks inherent in a market where the value of derivatives substantially exceeded the value of the underlying instruments. We are encouraged by the progress made to date, and will continue to encourage further improvements. Second, we believe that the major dealers, as well as the large commercial and investment banks, should take a cold, hard look at financing conditions and margin practice, particularly with respect to hedge fund counterparties and in OTC derivatives. The reports issued by the Counterparty Risk Management Policy Groups I and II both make the important observation that the financial system is likely to be more resilient under conditions of stress when counterparties set initial margins at levels that are likely to be sustainable in less benign conditions.

The Danish krone will be available for settlement in T2S as of 2018. Some of the other non-euro-area central banks have also expressed an interest in joining at a later stage, as soon as their markets are ready. I am confident that, following the successful launch, more markets and currencies will be interested in joining the platform, paving the way for T2S to embrace the diversity of Europe and become a truly panEuropean platform. Like the speakers in the panel discussion who shared their vision for the post-trade industry ten years from now, we should think about what happens next. The capital markets union, once established, will be a great step forward. But is more needed in the market infrastructure arena in order to progress on the journey towards an integrated financial market in Europe? One helping hand will be the synergy between TARGET2 on the cash side and T2S on the securities side, which certainly brings new opportunities. The objective should be to better meet the demands of the market and increase efficiency. Our journey continues. What I am sure of is that the story of T2S is successful because of each and every one of you. To celebrate this great achievement, I would like to invite you for a drink in the beautiful garden outside. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches