samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Percent of global GDP. 1975 – 2017 70 60  70  Trade in goods Trade in services  60  50  50  40  40  30  30  20  20  10  10  0 1975  0 1980  1985  1990  1995  2000  2005  2010  2015  1) Trade is defined as the sum of exports and imports of goods and services. Source: World Bank  A more closely interwoven world economy has facilitated specialisation, innovation and better use of local comparative advantages. The room for exchanging ideas and knowledge has expanded. Increased competition and innovation have gone hand in hand. Efficient global trade is particularly advantageous for small open economies, like Norway. Norway has benefitted greatly from the opportunities afforded by trade with other countries. 3  It is almost impossible to imagine today’s welfare level without the specialisation brought about thanks to a world of open borders. Norway exports a limited range of goods and services to the world market (Chart 2). This allows Norway to finance imports of numerous finished goods, which are cheaper than if we had manufactured them at home. Labour is thereby freed up for use in education, health and other services. NORGES BANK ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 14 FEBRUARY 2019  Chart 2 Exchange of goods gives Norway opportunities. Trade in goods. In billions of NOK.

Some analysts have suggested that, because of capital market integration, real interest rates will equalize around the world, thus reducing the ability of national Central Banks to control inflation. However, this need not be the case. Indeed, the classic Mundell-Fleming analysis concludes that monetary policy should be more effective, rather than less, in the case of international capital mobility, although it can operate through different channels of transmission including the exchange rate. Furthermore, in many emerging countries, strong capital inflows confront monetary policy with a dilemma between pursuing internal and external objectives, in a context of rising inflationary pressures. Taming capital inflows would call for a relaxation of monetary policy, at the risk however of compromising on the domestic objective of maintaining low inflation. Sterilisation cannot always be relied upon to resolve this dilemma as it is likely to be ineffective in the long term and fuel other imbalances such as excessive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. A second question is the potential for global contagion. As a direct consequence of cross-border financial integration, local price or liquidity shocks are more likely to spread around the globe. Large-scale liquidity creation resulting from monetary (or exchange rate) policy in one country may fuel asset price bubbles elsewhere. One current example might be seen in carry trades, which have become a major driver of a number of currencies, including the yen. Therefore, distant events can have sharp impacts, even on local institutions or investors. New contagion channels have emerged.
This is one of the underlying reasons for the poor risk management in our country. The fact that future uncertainty was high until recently due to macroeconomic instability had kept the general level of interest rates in an upward trend. As a result, these factors have prevented the smooth operation of derivatives markets. The second factor that has led to the poor development of risk management and of derivatives markets in Turkey is high public deficits, which caused the fragility of the public finance. As we are all aware, in the past, capital accumulation was based on public resources in Turkey. However, as a result of increasing public deficits, the capital provided by the public sector to the private sector was then extended by the private sector to the public sector. In this context, the market developed by “government securities” that are issued against public debt have become the most important and only market, which uses almost all the resources of the economy due to increasing public debt as well as high real interests payable. Such a framework, in other words, an environment where fiscal dominance is rather high did not allow neither the emergence of new financial instruments to finance the private sector, nor the deepening of financial markets. Moreover, portfolio diversification, the simplest element of risk management; could not be achieved.

If an AI is able to demonstrate to us that it has a better way of allocating capital against these risks than our own SRP model, then we will be open to discuss with it a corresponding adjustment to its capital ratio. Thus one aim of this approach is to give banks an incentive to come up with a better mousetrap. There will be capital benefits from having a good internal capital allocation process. 3/5  Implementation challenges I'd like to say a few words next about the implementation challenges associated with Basel II. Although preparations for the implementation of the new capital framework are well advanced in a large number of jurisdictions, including in Hong Kong, the process has not been without its critics. It has recently been claimed that too much regulation is now itself the greatest source of risk in the global financial system, and the implication that is supposed to be drawn is that regulators are somehow engaged in a self-defeating exercise. At the root of this criticism is the compliance burden that arises from Basel II implementation taken in combination with other recent developments, such as the adoption of International Accounting Standards. The first point I should make is that the timing of these various initiatives is not completely under our control: the accounting profession, for example, has tended to plough its own furrow independently of any of the banking regulators. This has been the case in many leading international financial centres, not just in Hong Kong.
The first is the ageing of the population, which, as we have seen, has increased the share of people who are older than what at least used to be the retirement age. As shown here  Bank of England  Page 12  in blue, that accounts for around a third of the increase in economic activity. It will provide a continuing drag in the coming years. The second factor is a change in the share of working-age people actively participating in the labour market. Particularly striking is the rise in inactivity of people aged 50-64. When leaving the labour force, many people in this age group say they have retired early, making a choice about the life they would like to live. At the same time, people who have become inactive seem to have moved further away from the labour market, most commonly, they say, because their health has deteriorated. Chart 8: Long-term sickness has driven much of the persistent rise in inactivity Change in inactivity since 2019 Q4 by reason (a)  (a) Changes from the three months to December 2019, based on those aged 16–64. Other reasons include: discouraged workers; those awaiting the results of a job application; have not yet started looking for work; do not need or want employment; have given an uncategorised reason; or have not given a reason. Sources: ONS and Bank Calculation.

The Icelandic bank Kaupthing experienced problems in Iceland and the Riksbank granted the Swedish subsidiary Kaupthing Bank Sverige AB liquidity assistance in October 2008. Carnegie Investment Bank AB also received liquidity assistance in October when it had problems finding funding. Given the financial market turbulence, the Riksbank’s assessment was that a suspension of payments by one of the banks could entail a risk of a serious disruption in the financial system and could undermine confidence in the payment system. Finansinspektionen (the Swedish financial supervisory authority) later revoked Carnegie’s licence to conduct banking activities. The Swedish National Debt Office took control over Carnegie and Finansinspektionen therefore changed its decision regarding the revocation of the licence to instead giving the bank a warning. The Riksbank’s liquidity assistance has been repaid. The Riksbank has also participated in the international cooperation to strengthen financial stability in Sweden's neighbouring countries. In May 2008, the Riksbank and the central banks in Denmark and Norway entered into a euro/Icelandic kronor swap agreement with the central bank of Iceland. The aim of this swap agreement is to support the Icelandic central bank in its efforts to safeguard macroeconomic and financial stability. Sweden's part of the swap agreement amounts to EUR 500 million. The agreement was extended in December after the IMF had drawn up a programme for financial assistance for Iceland. Latvia has negotiated a support package with the IMF and the EU which will make it possible for the country to retain its fixed exchange rate against the euro.
Rising inflation due to a food price shock is a problem affecting many emerging economies such as Brazil, China, Mexico and South Africa. In turn, the impact of this food price shock on inflation in industrial countries has been smaller, because the share of food items in the CPI basket is lower in high-income economies. As a result of these price shocks, now it is foreseen that projected annual inflation will be above those published in the last MPR. In line with inflation, short-term inflation forecasts have also risen. However, long-run inflation expectations are still anchored at 3%. This reflects the confidence of economic agents in the Central Bank’s commitment with the inflation target, and the transitory character of the recent hike in inflation. The different measures of trend inflation have also been rising during the last months, following the rising perishables prices and the reduction of the output gap (effective minus potential GDP) as observed up to the second quarter of this year. At the same time, the growth rate of wages shows increases in recent months (except in August). In addition, the Chilean peso has appreciated in nominal and real terms during the last month. These changes in the inflationary front have been the main concern of the Central Bank of Chile in the design of monetary policy, considering the purpose of keeping the inflation around 3% most of the time, with a tolerance range of +/-1 percentage points.

Closer examination of procyclical effects of credit market developments and the treatment of risk embedded in structured products held for trading is also warranted. The Deposit Guarantee Schemes, in the light of recent events, also need to be revisited. This is a piece of advice I would most urgently give to the authorities of this country with its unfunded DGS. BIS Review 120/2007  9  Last but not least If there is one major lesson recent market developments have clearly shown, it is the shortcoming of a prudential framework which sidelines the central bank. Cooperation at international level is only as good as cooperation at domestic level. Liquidity issues cannot be segmented between an FSA and a central bank with no contacts of an institutional nature. With this personal remark for domestic consumption I thank you for your attention. 10  BIS Review 120/2007
We have been hearing some of this, but more specific examples and solid data is needed to be in a position to address the issues. Remaining issues on my insomnia list Turning now to the issues that still keep me awake at night, I will highlight three of these today: (1) AML/BSA (yet again); (2) information technology; and (3) communication and coordination. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1. AML/BSA  The world of AML/BSA keeps growing. What started out decades ago as a US-centric emphasis on hindering drug trafficking has transformed into a global framework that addresses a range of criminal activity, anti-terrorism, arms proliferation, and tax avoidance. As I know you are aware, the bar keeps rising, as well as the stakes. This past year has seen – again – significant public enforcement actions, some together with huge fines.

Sarah Dahlgren: Operating global, acting local Remarks by Ms Sarah Dahlgren, Executive Vice President of the Financial Institution Supervision Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at Institute of International Bankers Seminar on Risk Management and Regulatory/Examinations Compliance Issues, New York City, 7 October 2014. *  *  *  Introduction Thank you Sally. It’s great to be here again this year. I appreciate the opportunity to address this group and to continue the dialogue that we’ve been having over the past several years. As always, my remarks reflect my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Last year, I spoke to you about how far we had come since the crisis in addressing some of the most pressing issues. I also shared my thoughts on areas that still needed to be addressed and where I thought more concerted effort was needed. There were four areas I focused on: 1. Resolution planning;  2. Coordinating supervision across global organizations;  3. Compliance (specifically AML/BSA); and,  4. Culture (of both firms and the system). In general, the issues that keep me awake at night haven’t changed much – and I’ll touch on a few that remain at the forefront of my insomnia later in my remarks.
Similarly, the composite weighted average yield rate for Government bonds increased by 109 basis points to 11.5% during the third quarter, up from an average of 10.4% recorded in the previous quarter. Developments in commercial banks’ nominal interest rates were mixed during the quarter under review. The weighted average lending base rate (WALBR) continued its downward trend, falling to 19.8% from 20.9% in June 2010. Similarly, the average lending rate (ALR) fell marginally to 26.8% in September 2010 from 27.9% in June 2010. However, the 30-day deposit rate for amounts exceeding K20 million and the average savings rate (ASR) for amounts above K100,000 remained unchanged at 5.6% and 4.7%, respectively. Real sector Developments in the real sector were favourable during the reviewed quarter. This was reflected in increased output of metals (copper & cobalt), beer, soft drinks and cement. Further, international arrivals also increased during the period under review. The stock of maize grain held by major millers in the country rose by 124.6% to 101,807.0 metric tonnes (mt) as at 29th September 2010 from 45,336.7 mt as at 30th June 2010. In terms of holdings by province, Lusaka contributed 51,117.1 mt (50.2%), Copperbelt 26,644.0 mt (26.2%), Southern 19,861.0 mt (19.5%), Western province 4,050.0 mt (4.0%), and Northern 35.0 mt (0.03%) respectively, while Eastern province accounted for 100.0 mt (0.1%). During the reviewed quarter, copper output increased by 16.4% to 232,554.87 mt from 199,621.06 mt in the previous quarter.

National budget 2011 The Minister of Finance and National Planning announced the 2011 National Budget on October 8, 2010. The Government maintained its focus on diversifying the economy, increasing productive employment and maintaining a stable macro-economic environment. The key Macroeconomic objectives for 2011 are;   To exceed 6% GDP growth;    To reduce end-year inflation to 7.0%; and    To maintain international reserves of at least 4 months of import cover. The growth in GDP for 2011 is premised on the continued strong performance of the agriculture, mining, construction, manufacturing, transport and communications and tourism sectors. Inflation outlook for the third quarter of 2010 In the fourth quarter of 2010, annual overall inflation is projected to remain below the end year target of 8.0%. This favourable outlook is on account of expected stability in maize prices in view of the bumper harvest in 2010, favourable supply of vegetables and fresh fish during the period and relative stability of the exchange rate of the Kwacha against the US dollar for much of the fourth quarter. However, the Bank of Zambia will continue to monitor developments and undertake appropriate monetary policy actions to ensure that monetary targets are achieved. To contain growth of money supply within the programmed path, Bank of Zambia will continue to employ open market operations and auctioning of Government securities. This is expected to be complemented by prudent fiscal operations. I thank you for your attention.
I would add here that the Government has implemented several measures in this respect, such as electricity and natural gas price capping schemes, the compensation of the price of motor fuel/liter and caps on the firewood price. Also, we are aware that the war in Ukraine and the related sanctions will continue to generate considerable uncertainties and risks to the outlook for economic activity, through possibly stronger effects on consumer purchasing power and confidence, as well as on firms' activity, profits and investment plans, with an unfavorable impact on financing costs. In this current juncture, the balanced macroeconomic policy mix and the implementation of structural reforms, including the use of EU funds to foster the growth potential over the long term, are essential in preserving a stable macroeconomic framework and strengthening the capacity of the Romanian economy to withstand adverse developments. With respect to the National Bank of Romania's responsibilities, we aim to anchor inflation expectations over the medium term, to bring the annual inflation rate back towards the target, in a manner conducive to achieving sustainable economic growth. The annual CPI inflation rate is projected to follow a gradual downward path, but to remain slightly above the variation band of the target also next year. The prudential and financial position of the Romanian banking sector - the main source of finance to the economy - is adequate. However, the risks are rising both locally and internationally.

Turning to fiscal policies, euro area governments need to do their utmost to support fiscal sustainability by correcting excessive deficits in accordance with the agreed timetables and by moving to a structural balanced budget or surplus position over the medium term. Slippages in the implementation of fiscal consolidation plans of vulnerable countries must be corrected swiftly by structural fiscal improvements. With regard to the new provisions of the EU economic governance framework that recently came into force, it is crucial that all the elements be implemented rigorously. Only ambitious policies to prevent and correct macroeconomic and fiscal imbalances will foster public confidence in the soundness of policy actions, and thus strengthen overall economic sentiment. The Governing Council welcomes the European Council’s agreement to move to a stronger economic union, which was announced on 9 December 2011. The new fiscal compact, 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  comprising a fundamental restatement of the fiscal rules together with the fiscal commitments that euro area governments have made, is an important contribution to ensuring the long-run sustainability of public finances in the euro area countries. The wording of the rules needs to be unambiguous and effective. The further development of the European financial stability tools should make the operation of the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Stability Mechanism more effective. The swift deployment of these tools is now urgently needed.
José De Gregorio: Monetary policy and commodity prices in turbulent times Keynote address by Mr José De Gregorio, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, at the 2008 Annual Meeting of Latin American Chief Executives of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), hosted by Corpbanca, Santiago, 2 April 2008. I am very grateful to Igal Magendzo for his great contribution during the preparation of these notes. *  *  *  The global economy is in turmoil. In this scenario, monetary policies around the world face strong challenges. Sailing through quiet waters has been pleasant. As we know, the stable and prosperous performance of the world economy in recent years has partly been the result of sound monetary policies. Now, during difficult times, monetary policy should contribute to make the adjustment less costly and lay the foundations for a sound, persistent recovery. Macroeconomic management in emerging market economies have improved significantly in the past several years, owing part of this to the large increase in commodity prices, but also to fiscal consolidation and the commitment to price stability. This has increased the resilience of emerging economies to global economic turbulences. In this presentation I will address three issues. First, the troublesome inflationary effects of the high commodity prices cycle we have experienced. Then, I will argue that, in this juncture, reinforcing the commitment to control inflation and reverse deviations from the target is a first order task.

Finally, drawing upon lessons from the recent experience I will talk about risk management in monetary policy, and what it implies in such an uncertain economic environment as we face today. Commodity prices and domestic adjustment Recent increases in the prices of commodities have been dramatic: many reached record highs in a very short period of time. This increase has been particularly broad across commodities and unexpectedly persistent. Commodity price indices (index 1967=100) 500  1000  400  800  300  600  200  400  100  200  0  00 Total Food  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  0 08 Metals  Source: Commodity Research Bureau (CRB). BIS Review 39/2008  1  Copper price (US cents/Lb.) 2006  2007  305  323  2008 (f)  2009 (f)  Jan. MPR 295  Mar. --  Jan. MPR 250  Mar. --  Deutsche Bank (7 mar) Scotiabank (20 mar) JPMorgan Chase (14 mar) Barclays (13 mar) Merril Lynch(19 mar) Cochilco (9 jan) IB's Mean  332 295 315 354 308 310 321  325 325 310 343 320 310 325  274 -228 295 291 270 272  306 250 246 326 291 270 284  Futures (1)  316  368  314  357  Actual Mean (2)  313  350  Central Bank of Chile  (1) Futures consider average of the last 10 working days prior to 20 March 2008.