samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
From the demand side, the global economy is going solidly in the major economies like the US and Europe in the period leading into the conflict. We hence perceive that the recovery of the global economy is still quite strong and intact. Although the Russia-Ukraine conflict will dampen the global economy, the situation is not likely to derail the recovery. It is important to note that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a huge supply shock caused by commodity prices and certain selected materials that are important in the Russia and Ukraine export space. Overall, it is still not a global economic or financial crisis. It may look like a crisis in Russia, but the spread to other places seems to be limited, for example, the contagion of the risk that it translates to a European economic crisis is not very likely. That is another reason why both the direct and indirect impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Thai economy via trade and investment will not be substantial. The third and the main transmission channel of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Thailand is through inflation. The surge in commodity prices has resulted in a much higher inflation outlook in Thailand. We will be releasing our public estimate of the headline inflation later after our Monetary Policy Committee meets. Even though the headline inflation had jumped to 5.3% last month, we view that it is still manageable in Thailand because it is concentrated in certain key segments, like energy and raw foods.

The other thing that would be a requirement for a highly connected economy is good logistics. According to the World Bank’s International Logistics Performance Index, the country in ASEAN with the best logistics is Singapore, but Thailand is number two. It is another indication that if you buy the argument that ASEAN is a good place to be, and you look for a very well-connected place in ASEAN, then Thailand is probably not a bad place for you to be. I might be sharing my thoughts a bit beyond the responsibility of the Bank of Thailand to convey appreciation for the good partnership that we have had with Japan through the years and hope that partnership will continue. Going forward, I would like to emphasize that we cannot rely on the same old investment or growth story that we had before when we were younger and were growing very strongly. We are a different kind of economy today, but there are still sound reasons for our friends from Japan to continue operating and investing in Thailand. With that, let me conclude the formal part of the talk and turn it over to any questions you may have. Thank you. Page 8 of 8
Ninth, I agree there is evident fear among the certain existing EU members, including Germany, that once Poland, Hungary, Slovakia or Latvia enter the EMU, the euro could be weaken. I do not find any rational argument supporting this preposition. Firstly, as I pointed out, earlier date of entry would mobilise the candidate countries to complete the structural reforms. Secondly, candidate countries combined make up for only around 6% of the enlarged EU GDP. Any negative impact the enlargement might have, which is unlikely, in any case will be highly subdued. Thirdly, I think the reason behind the relative weakness of the euro, is not Greece or Portugal or the other EMU members but something different. The entry of Poland and other countries into the EMU, assuming they complete reforms, will not weaken the euro at all. Finally, as for today there are differences in the rate of inflation given the BS Effect in the EMU countries, hence why should be a problem for others, with inflation only marginally different from the EU average, to join the Eurozone? Tenth, earlier entry of the candidate countries into EMU would allow them to start reaping the related advantages (more price transparency, reduced transformation costs, stronger macroeconomic framework) at the earlier date. Summarising, we should not oppose nominal and real convergence. One should not assume there is an unavoidable conflict between the two. Firstly, results of nominal convergence, a low inflation rate among them, are one of the foundations of the long-term economic growth.

Leszek Balcerowicz: The optimal timing and path for Poland’s entry into EMU Speech by Prof Leszek Balcerowicz, President of the National Bank of Poland, at the 11th European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, 23 November 2001. *  *  *  Thank you very much Mr Chairman, I welcome this opportunity to address such a distinguished audience. I would start with two basic assumptions. First, we are not discussing whether euro will go east or not because we are assuming Poland and other candidate countries will enter the European Union with the status of a country with derogation, so sooner or later they will be obliged to join the Monetary Union as well. Therefore, the issue under discussion is not “if” but “when” and “how” i.e. what are the optimal timing and the optimal path. Secondly, one should assume equal treatment of candidates and present EU member countries i.e. fulfilling the Maastrich Criteria, no less no more. There should be no additional criteria like, for example, a required level of financial deepening, as it would indicate an unequal treatment of candidate countries. Taking the second assumption of the entry into the EMU as granted, I would like to focus on the core issue, which is the question of optimal timing. My basic point is, that, firstly, early entry into the Monetary Union is possible and secondly, that it is preferable to the delayed one.
Pål Longva: Report from Norges Bank Watch Remarks by Mr Pål Longva, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), on the Centre for Monetary Economics' (CME) assessment of the Norges Bank's conduct of monetary policy, published in its Norges Bank Watch Report Series, Oslo, 1 March 2023. ***  In February/March each year, the Centre for Monetary Economics (CME) presents a report commissioned by the Ministry of Finance on Norges Bank's activities. A committee of independent economists assesses Norges Bank's conduct of monetary policy. The reports are published by the CME in its Norges Bank Watch Report Series. First, I would like to thank this year's committee for an excellent report. Such an annual assessment is highly useful. I would also like to thank the Centre for Monetary Economics for hosting the event and for the opportunity to comment on the report. The committee supports the monetary policy decisions taken in the course of 2022. Our communication is described as open and clear. At the same time, they would like for us to be clearer in communicating our views on the fiscal policy stance. In Norway, there is a clear division of roles in economic policy. The people's elected representatives are responsible for fiscal policy. Norges Bank sets monetary policy in order to best fulfil the mandate the people's elected representatives have assigned to it. Norges Bank Watch notes that in certain situations, fiscal policy could be more effective than monetary policy in lowering inflation.

While this development has somewhat lessened our concern for immediate liquidity and capital, the performance of the financial system is yet to be tested during an economic downturn. In essence, we do not know how the strategic partners of Estonian banks would react if the GDP growth will slow, loan losses amount and bank profitability starts to decline. We must be vigilant to grasp the changes as soon as possible. The key to vulnerability analysis is a successful implementation of ideally several analytical tools, including early warning systems and macroprudential analysis. As we know, the early warning systems typically try to estimate the impact of external factors on domestic financial systems, i.e., how vulnerable the banking sector is to decline in exports or to worsening market sentiment. Macroprudential analysis undertakes to broaden that approach to a variety of economic indicators, using the stress testing models. Several organizations are focussing on these developments, including the BIS, ECB and IMF. The topic gains even more prominence for us as the European Commission, acting on the request from the ECOFIN Council, is starting to prepare the so-called Macro Financial Stability Assessments later this year that would evaluate the resilience of the financial systems of prospective new member states. Several prerequisites are necessary for the development of reliable and robust early warning systems and even more so for the meaningful macroprudential approach. Reliable data and reasonably long time series is a necessity as well as is the profound intertemporal analysis.
Speech delivered by Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy at 20th Annual General Meeting of the Exporters Association of Sri Lanka Today, in addition to the growth and employment objectives, we have this onerous debt problem that we have to address. We can’t really address that without a significant improvement in our export performance. Now, by way of introduction, before I get into the issues relating to the export sector, specifically, let me just give by way of background, some remarks about the growth model that the government is trying to put into place. It is private sector driven with exports and FDI as key figures. If I may say a few words about each of those: I’ve been a public servant all my life, so I don’t subscribe to the view that the private sector is the panacea for all our ills. In fact, if you look around the world, you get different mixes of the private sector and the State in terms of delivering good development outcomes. But in our case, the public debt and deficit dynamics are such, that the State simply cannot lead the development process. It’s nothing to do with ideology. It is a purely pragmatic assertion that it has to be the private sector that has to drive the growth in the regeneration process of this country.

With the experience gained together, we can deliver positive and significant changes that will improve the welfare of individuals and businesses, not just in these two cities but across Malaysia and in countries that are dependent on remittance flows. Thank you. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
We were all surprised by the relatively high growth rate combined with low inflation and almost unchanged employment. In times such as these, with extensive structural changes and "shocks” succeeding one another, it is especially important to consider the economy’s capacity to adapt. The conditions for achieving lasting success in the form of higher employment and lower unemployment are greater if the measures are aimed at making the economy less sensitive to shock rather than at using stabilisation policy to try to fend off shocks. Moreover, it is much simpler to find useful measures that can be taken if one adopts the former policy rather than the latter. The focus on stabilisation policy is also surprising given the fact that the nominal interest rate is the lowest it has been since the 1960s and 1970s and that even when measured in real terms, i.e. nominal interest rate minus expected inflation rate, it is among the lowest we have seen in 20 years. Monetary policy is thus clearly expansionary. At the same time, fiscal policy is also expansionary and has stretched the limits of what is compatible with the long-term regulations. So, if I can modify my answer to the question even further: Yes, stabilisation policy is important, but it is even more important to undertake measures that enable the economy to adapt smoothly to new conditions.

This yield can be interpreted as a risk premium priced into the futures contract to compensate the holder for bearing the commodity price risk. However, if the number of investors ready to bear this risk increases significantly, the risk premium could disappear or even turn negative. In fact, for some time now, the near-term structure of many commodity prices has experienced a change from backwardation to contango. It seems to me, there may well be a connection between this change from backwardation to contango and the growing trend to invest in commodity futures. Contrary to other commodities, gold has typically been in contango. The reason is that there is plenty of gold around and plenty of market participant - including central banks - willing to lend it. As a consequence, gold lease rates are usually lower than USD interest rates and gold futures prices higher than spot prices. The roll yield is thus negative, which is one of the reasons why investment in gold futures did not generate the same returns as investments in broad commodity future price indices. So what return should we expect from investing in gold? History shows that gold has been able to keep its value in real terms, but compared to bonds or equities, no real return has been realized (Graph 2).
One has to be concerned about this, particularly at a time of slow growth in household disposable income, and about the resulting increase in the consumer debt burden. For while the default rate of household borrowing, particularly mortgage loans, remains low, much lower in fact than that of the corporate sector, existing and prospective borrowers may not be factoring into calculations of their repayment capacity the possibility that interest rates might not remain at their current low levels indefinitely. While the exuberance which took hold of the property market in recent years appears to have moderated somewhat, a similar phenomenon has emerged in the equity market. The optimism that is driving up share prices is supported by strong corporate profitability in a few cases. Current trends, however, are taking prices into territory where the connection with intrinsic values becomes less obvious, and suggest caution. BIS Review 16/2006  5  10. Economic analysts can sound gloomy warnings to keep pushing the authorities in the right direction, or ring the bells proclaiming good news and risk undermining the sense of determination needed. Which approach would you advocate? Neither of the two. There is already so much spin created by purveyors of pessimism and optimism alike that it is becoming increasingly difficult to get a balanced reading of the economic situation. Independent economic analysts, therefore, shoulder a heavy responsibility. It is to bring together all the relevant information, subject it to a critical but objective assessment, and be prepared to support their conclusions with well documented arguments.

This produced an acceleration of some Lm7 million in the rate of increase of pension expenditures. Pension reform, which is vital for the long-term sustainability of public finances, should be implemented this year. Everybody has had a say and there is now a comprehensive, balanced set of proposals which answer to the widest possible range of concerns compatibly with having a viable system. It is time to move on to other pressing issues. 9. Property values continue to increase against a background of a rising volume of bank credit that is being channeled into construction and house purchase. Are there grounds for concern? Property values are estimated to have increased by about 9% in 2005. Although this represents a slowdown from previous years, it is still in excess of recent inflation and occurred despite a continuing high vacancy rate. The ready availability of credit contributes to rising property prices. While the volume of bank credit to the construction industry was more or less flat last year, borrowing to finance the construction or purchase of housing went up by 21% to Lm653 million. These numbers, moreover, must be viewed in the context of total household borrowing. Consumer credit, including through credit cards, increased by 13% in 2005 to Lm91 million. This is an area where the banks are marketing their products rather aggressively, encouraging borrowing for consumption rather than for investment purposes.
11 For example, the share of corporate debt owed by listed UK companies with a ratio of net debt to EBITDA  greater than four was 35% in 2018, compared to 28% in 2007. And the share of debt owed by highly leveraged US companies has reached pre-crisis levels of above 40%. 12 Globally, this share was around 60% on average in 2019Q1-Q3, close to record highs. 13 For example, PRA data indicates that the share of new lending with leverage above 7 times would increase from 18% to 28% if add-backs and subsequent borrowing were included. 14 The share of new mortgages issued at LTV ratios of 90% or more was 20% in 2019Q2 compared to 22% in 2006-07. 15 The spread of quoted 2-year fix rates at 90% LTVs over 2-year fix rates at 75% LTVs fell to below 0.5% in 2019H1, compared to a post-crisis average of more than 1.5%. 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  7  For insurance companies and pension funds the impact of low for long on the valuation of their liabilities, combined with the rigidity of returns expected by some claimholders (and specified in defined benefit pension schemes), puts pressure on their balance sheets. This has led to changes in asset allocation, with greater investment in less liquid, lower quality assets.

One of their papers published in the Journal of Economic Literature in March, 1996 under the title “The Standard Error of Regressions” has made the following eyeopening comment: “Such misuses of statistical significance appear to depend in part on a vintage effect, measured by date of Ph.D. conferral. The papers authored by Ph.D.s conferred between 1975 and 1979, when inexpensively generated t-tests first reached the masses, were considerably worse than the papers of others at making a distinction between economic and statistical significance. They used the word “significance” in ambiguous ways more often than did early or later Ph.D.s and they were less likely to separate statistical significance from other types of significance in the sections on scientific and policy implications” (p 111). The other findings of McCloskey and Ziliak are also startling. Of the 182 articles in the American Economic Review they have surveyed, 70 percent had not distinguished statistical significance from economic, policy or scientific significance. While they had referred to largeness of the estimators, 72 percent had not asked “how large was large?” At the same time, 59 percent had used the word “significance” in ambiguous ways. A more pronounced failure has been the non-reporting of descriptive statistics such as the means of the regression variables by 69 percent of the authors. (p 106). The problem with econometric studies is that the computations made by authors remain as a “black box” to ordinary readers.
Some in the private sector complain that there might be a lack of regulatory level playing field. But my own experience leads me to believe that supervisors themselves are just as aware of this. So I would encourage those in the private sector to work with supervisors in different countries to ensure the delivery of fair supervision across frontiers. If we can achieve confidence in that, then the intention of pillar two acting as a mitigant against greater prescription will I believe be realised in practice. That said, I recognise that in some jurisdictions the thinking behind pillar two represents a new departure in the philosophy, and perhaps legal basis, behind banking supervision. And in that way it represents a considerable challenge. BIS Review 14/2003  1  Maintaining the link with market practice Basel II has been a long process. But it is not an end in itself. Indeed if it were we would never achieve it. The markets, and the risks they give rise to, are not static. It is instructive, for instance, to reflect on just how much risk management theory and practice has advanced in the five years since negotiations on the Accord began. I have long felt that you need some mechanism to ensure that prudential standards remain appropriate as the state of the art moves on. That does not mean that the standards should be in a state of continuous flux. There is a good case for stability in the initial period while the Accord is being adopted.

I said I would come back to Simple, Transparent and Comparable (STC) securitisation. Unfortunately, we have done our best to confuse people by using a bewildering range of acronyms and terms for this project – STC, SST, STS, qualifying, high quality etc. Today I  1  The case for a better functioning securitisation market in the European Union: a discussion paper, European Central Bank and Bank of England, May 2014. 2  Joint response from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank to the Consultation Document of the European Commission: ‘An EU framework for simple, transparent and standardised securitisation’, March 2015. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  am using the STC term developed by the taskforce of global banking and securities regulators that I co-chair. But I can reassure you that these will be brought together into a single set of criteria in European legislation. I believe the intention is that they will then be applied consistently across different sectors – for example, banks, insurers and funds – and different regulations – for example capital and liquidity. I see the aims of the STC criteria as threefold. First, to help investors. An STC securitisation should meet the “What You See Is What You Get” principle. The structure should not have hidden traps or complications, allowing investors to focus on analysing the credit quality of the underlying assets. But, importantly, the STC criteria are not a credit opinion on those assets and STC will certainly not mean “risk free”. Second, to help issuers.