samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The fact of the matter is that the contraction in 2009 proved to be significantly smaller than originally predicted, with the fall in GDP turning out to have been 7½%, as opposed to the 10% forecasted earlier in the year. There are probably several explanations for this. Automatic fiscal stabilisers were allowed to work more or less freely in 2009, with fiscal consolidation taking hold this year. Icelanders were allowed early withdrawal from their third-pillar pension funds, which last year and this year is equivalent to 2½% of annual GDP, as I mentioned earlier. The financial restructuring of corporations and households has been delayed and, although this is detrimental for medium-term recovery, it has postponed some of the pain. The depreciated exchange rate has stimulated the traded goods sector. Finally, although the destruction of wealth that Iceland has experienced as a result of the collapse of the Icelandic banks is enormous, it is not proportionate to the size of the banks, as foreign creditors will lose much more. But we will continue to pay the price this year, as GDP will contract further between 2009 and 2010, but unfortunately I cannot give you much new detail on the prospects for 2010, nor can I discuss monetary policy, as I have entered the seven-day silent period before the announcement of the interest rate decision and the issuance of a new forecast next Wednesday.

This means that the companies can obtain financing by issuing commercial paper and selling to the banks, which can in turn use this as collateral to borrow from the Riksbank. The interest on the loans provides compensation for risk and time to maturity and the banks can only use the credit facility if they buy new commercial paper. If large companies outside of the financial sector gain greater access to credit, then the banks should have more scope to lend more money to small and medium-sized enterprises as well. Liquidity assistance on special terms The Riksbank has also provided special liquidity assistance to two Swedish financial institutions, namely Kaupthing Bank Sverige AB and Carnegie Investment Bank AB. These loans have been granted against collateral and at an interest rate that is higher than the normal borrowing cost. Although neither of these two market participants has a dominant position in the Swedish market, the Riksbank chose in both cases in the current turbulent market situation to grant liquidity assistance to prevent serious disruptions to the financial system and to maintain confidence in Sweden’s credit and payment systems. The decisions were based on assessments that the participants were solvent, but that they nevertheless were unable to acquire the necessary liquidity themselves to meet their payment obligations. With regard to this type of loan, liquidity assistance on special terms, it is important to remember why they are being granted. The issue is to safeguard the financial system and important social values.
The flexibility of credit and liquidity that banks provide - stemming from this unique capacity to create transaction account liabilities - is vital to the smooth development and growth of market-based economies. Other essential functions This money-creating capacity also enables banks to perform other essential functions. For example, banks serve as the primary and back-up source of liquidity for other classes of institutions, financial and non-financial. Even in advanced financial systems, the capital markets rely heavily on the banking system to meet day-to-day cash flow needs and to provide standby financing facilities. In addition, the banking system is the mechanism, or transmission belt, by which the policies of the central bank regarding money and credit creation are implemented, and the pace of economic activity determined. Simply stated, without an effectively functioning banking system for encouraging, collecting and deploying society’s savings, providing the means for quick and reliable payment, and performing these other essential functions I’ve just mentioned, there would be little hope for any economy to mobilize the real resources necessary for economic growth and stability. If money and credit are the lifeblood of a market economy - and they are - the banking system is its beating heart. Public confidence - the key to intermediation But banks’ ability to collect and mobilize society’s savings by attracting deposits is only half of the story. Their ability to retain those deposits is just as critical. This may seem an obvious point, but the retention side of the banking equation is too often forgotten or overlooked.

The 21st century financial marketplace is too dynamic, too complex, and supervisors must work within the political realities of our respective nations. Instead, what I envision is a flexible, multi-faceted strategy that emphasizes prudence and prevention, compatibility with the market, and that fosters a close and cooperative partnership between the private and public sector. With these priorities in mind, I believe there are three essential elements of a modern supervision framework: •  effective bank-level management;  •  market discipline; and  •  official supervision. Let me discuss each of these in turn, noting that each should reinforce the others to effectively promote a safe and sound financial system. Effective bank-level management Primary responsibility for the safe and sound operation of a banking institution lies with its board of directors and senior management. The purpose of the board of directors is to oversee the development  3  BIS Review 27/2000  of the overall strategy of the organization and the decisions made by senior management in pursuit of those strategic objectives. The role of senior management, in turn, is to oversee day-to-day decisions made within the organization and to ensure their consistency with long-term objectives and policies as determined by the board. There are several aspects to effective bank-level management.
The reason for that partly stems from the lack of statistical knowledge about the interaction between variables. Therefore, the models mostly tend to rest on simplified assumptions based on subjective judgments. I do not want to go into details about the technical aspects of the risk measurement methods, but I would like to emphasize that it is necessary to combine them with sound judgment and common sense. Since these models are no more than simplified and limited images of the real world, they are better to be used having this fact in mind and the decisions must be taken not solely relying on the results of these models. The results should be supported with scenario analysis, stress testing and most importantly with the sound judgment of the decision makers. Another important aspect of risk analysis is that it should be integrated, meaning that the analysis results for different risk types should be comparable with each other to facilitate decision making. It necessitates that the assumptions, data, valuation models used in analyzing different types of risks be the same or at least consistent with each other. Organizationally, the integration of risk analysis requires that there be a single, common risk management authority for the whole organization. At the beginning, it might not be easy to look at risk on an institution wide basis. Since it requires a considerable amount of capital to be invested either in terms of technology, or in terms of staff.

Gazi Erçel: Risk management - within reserve management policies  Opening remarks by Mr Gazi Erçel, Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, in the Conference titled “Current issues in reserves management for central banks in Europe, Middle East and North Africa” which has been organized by the World Bank Treasury in Istanbul on 4-5 May 2000. *  *  *  I am delighted to be with you today to offer some general remarks about reserve management, and our approach to risk management, at the Central Bank of Turkey. Before starting my speech, I would like to thank the World Bank for organizing this conference which, I believe, will be most beneficial to all of us. I am sure most of the important subjects related to new developments in reserve management will be covered in detail at this meeting. However, let me briefly comment on recent developments in managing risk within reserve management and share our experience at the Central Bank of Turkey with you. A string of disaster stories dominated the financial news coverage during the last two decades. A variety of factors could be cited as possible causes of these events. They include shortcomings in economic policy, inadequate supervision and, in most cases, poor risk management by the market players themselves. Beyond that, the basic issue is the financial system’s vulnerability to unforeseen events. We all learned much from these bad experiences but we are living in a changing world.
The development of the FSDP and its implementation, therefore, reflects the priority attached by the Government to this important endevour. It’s also worth noting that the Bank of Zambia has incorporated Financial Inclusion as one of the key objectives under its Strategic Plan for the period 2012 – 2015, namely, to increase financial inclusion to 50 percent of the population by 2015. Ladies and Gentlemen, the strategies under this objective include the following: 1. Developing an index to measure the depth and breadth of financial services in Zambia;  2. Promoting agency banking and mobile banking;  3. Developing a framework for branchless banking. 4. Establishing a unified collateral registry framework;  5. Undertaking financial education interventions;  6. Revising legal and regulatory framework to promote financial inclusion; and  7. Developing incentive mechanisms to encourage outreach of financial services to rural areas and other financially excluded citizens. The Financial Education Coordinating Unit (FECU) has been established at the Bank to spearhead the financial literacy campaign across the country. The Bank of Zambia has also facilitated for persons who are excluded, both in urban and rural areas not to encounter difficulties in the opening of bank accounts by simplifying the know your customer (KYC) procedures for opening and operating bank accounts. The simplified procedures or relaxed “KYC” note allows banks to use various forms of reference documentation such as community leaders other than the traditional approach that required lawyers, commissioner of oaths, government officials and other officials or institutions.

Michael Gondwe: Women’s access to financial services in Zambia Opening remarks by Dr Michael Gondwe, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the “Women’s Access to Financial Services in Zambia – Dissemination and Consultation Conference”, Lusaka, 24 June 2014. *  *  *  •  Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Finance;  •  Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Gender and Child Development  •  Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Commerce  •  Bank of Zambia Board Members  •  Your Excellences, High Commissioners and Ambassadors to Zambia present;  •  The United Nations Development Programme Country Director, Ms Viola Morgan;  •  The African Development Bank Country Representatives; Dr Freddie Kwesiga;  •  Representatives from the International labour Organisation (ILO);  •  Deputy Governor Administration, Bank of Zambia Dr. Tukiya Kankasa-Mabula  •  New Faces, New Voices Representative, Ms Nomsa Daniels  •  Chairpersons of the Boards of Commercial Banks,  •  Chief Executive Officers of Banks and Other Organisations;  •  Senior Staff and Colleagues from Bank of Zambia;  •  Members of the Press;  •  Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen. It is my honour and privilege to welcome you all to this conference on Women’s Financial Inclusion in Zambia. May I extend a special welcome to delegates that have come from abroad. I wish you a good stay and hope you will have time to visit the various places of interest and sample the food that Lusaka offers.
In recent years, both our central bank researchers and external researchers financed by us have been selected to present their papers. In this year’s edition, the conference has been jointly organised with the CEPR’s Economic History section. Secondly, since 2009, the Banco de España has had a biannual programme in place for economic history research grants. Under the programme, universities commit themselves, following an agreement signed with the Bank, to pursuing the research selected and to presenting and publishing their findings. The possibility of collaboration between researchers from both institutions is also envisaged. Since 1980, under the initial backing of Luis Ángel Rojo, the Bank has published a collection of monographs relating to monetary and financial history, Spanish and international alike, under the name “Economic History Studies” (more familiarly known as the “Red Series”). To date, this collection had solely included papers prepared or financed by the Banco de España. Currently, however, with a view to extending and maintaining its continuity, we are assessing opening it up to other research not necessarily financed by the Bank. To be added to the foregoing is all the sponsorship and funding activity of associations, universities and royal academies in the field of economic history. Actions of a differing nature and scope are involved, giving continuity to our long-standing and intense promotion work. I am particularly gratified to be able to share with you today my satisfaction at the recognition recently granted by the Spanish Economic History Association to the supportive work by the Banco de España.

William C Dudley: The evolving structure of the US treasury market Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at The Evolving Structure of the U.S. Treasury Market: Third Annual Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 28 November 2017. * * * Vic Chakrian, Ellen Correia Golay, Frank Keane, Matthew Milroy, Marcus Petersen, Liza Reiderman, William Riordan, and Nathaniel Wuerffel assisted in the preparation of these remarks. On behalf of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and our co-sponsors—the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission—I would like to welcome you to this year’s conference on the structure of the U.S. Treasury market. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System. This is the third year the New York Fed has co-hosted the Treasury market structure conference, which provides an opportunity to deepen our understanding of the changing landscape of the Treasury market. Many of you remember the market volatility of October 15, 2014, that precipitated the need for additional engagement between the private and public sectors about Treasury market structure.
When oil prices are taken as those of the year 2000, it can be said that the ratio of current account deficit to national income is 1.2 percentage points lower as of the first quarter of 2006. Meanwhile, it is expected that the depreciation of the Turkish currency due to recent fluctuations in financial markets, monetary policy tightening and the relative decline in domestic demand will slow economic activity and imports to a certain extent as of the second half of the year. As for exports, the upward trend is anticipated to gain momentum in line with increased foreign demand. In this framework, it is expected that the ratio of current account deficit to gross national product will fall in 2006 compared to 2005. The quality of financing is very important for the sustainability of the current account deficit and for preventing the perception that the current account deficit is a risk. The quality of financing in Turkey has improved significantly, especially due to the favorable impact of the structural transformation process and has enhanced the macroeconomic conditions observed in the last five years. Long-term capital is assuming an increasingly important role in the financing of the current account deficit. By June, 82 percent of the current account deficit has been financed with long-term capital alone. Meanwhile, the ratio of short-term capital to current account deficit stands at 29.4 percent. In addition, foreign direct investments peaked well beyond historic levels and reached a record-high level of USD 17.3 billion in annual terms in June 2006.

No disruption was observed in foreign direct investment inflow during the fluctuations in financial markets that started in May. This development is a result of the success achieved in macroeconomic stability and also an indicator of confidence in the future. The inflow of foreign direct investment is expected to accelerate further, due to increased privatizations, company mergers and takeovers. Meanwhile, it is observed that hot money inflows, which lead to frequent discussions about the financing of the current account deficit, have lost pace due to the change in global liquidity conditions. Including net errors and omissions, the ratio of hot money to current account deficit, which was 103 percent on an annual basis by June 2005, decreased to 27.8 percent by June 2006. We expect that the above mentioned financing structure, which is composed heavily of long-term capital and foreign direct investments, will also continue in the upcoming years in the framework of the structural transformation process in the Turkish economy and the European Union full membership process. While evaluating the rates of current account deficit, it should be taken into account that the macroeconomic conditions in Turkey are different from those of the past. First of all, the short position of the banking sector is very limited compared to previous years and the financial sector is much more robust. Tight monetary and fiscal policies are decisively implemented. Foreign exchange reserves are high and the floating exchange rate regime is successfully fulfilling its shock-absorbing function.
Openness and clarity can thereby contribute to increased credibility and anchor inflation expectations around the target. This was an important reason why the Riksbank began to publish its forecasts and other material on which decisions were based early on in the new inflation-targeting regime. I am convinced that we would not have been able to build up confidence in the price stability target as quickly as we did if we had not been as open as we were regarding our work and our decisions. The economic argument in favour of transparency is also linked to the fact that openness and clarity are today considered an important part of the monetary policy in itself. According to economic theory, there is a correlation between interest rates with different times to maturity. Expectations of short-term interest rates, which the central bank governs, are important to the long-term interest rates. By influencing expectations of short-term interest rates, a central bank can therefore also indirectly affect interest rates with longer maturities. Greater influence over rate-setting for all maturities – the yield curve – will raise the degree of impact of monetary policy. This is sometimes called conducting monetary policy by “management of expectations”. Monetary policy is to a large degree about influencing expectations. And the best way to do this is to provide good information. The most obvious way for a central bank to influence expectations of monetary policy is to present the future path for the policy rate that the bank itself considers most reasonable.

Of course the City is in competition with other financial centres elsewhere in Europe. But as I have often pointed out before, at the macro-economic level such competition is a positive-, not a zero-sum game from which we collectively, borrowers and lenders and market intermediaries, all stand to gain. I have every confidence in the ability of the City to thrive in this competitive environment - but it will thrive not at the expense of the rest of Europe but alongside other European financial centres. And in that context suggestions that we should be somehow artificially disadvantaged are irrational. The third challenge confronting the City - and a much more fundamental one - is the accelerating advance of information and communications technology which is currently sweeping across the whole of the global economy. In the financial services sector in particular it is the major driver of change and innovation. It makes possible the introduction of a whole raft of essentially new financial services and products, and it is radically changing the way in which they and existing services and products are delivered, whether in wholesale or retail financial markets, at a fraction of the existing cost. In wholesale markets it will affect the whole spectrum of activity - from trading through payments and settlements, across the whole range of financial instruments, across national boundaries - not simply within Europe although that is an immediate focus of attention - and it has the potential to alter fundamentally the relationships between end-users of the markets, intermediaries and exchanges.