samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This takes place in connection with a written report on the policy carried out and the current state of the Swedish economy. 4. Finally, it is important to remember that the assignment to the Riksbank is given in the form of an ordinary law. It is inter alia formulated that the Riksbank shall maintain stable prices. This means that the Riksdag can at any time reformulate the task of the Riksbank in an ordinary law. The EU Treaty sets limits, however, as to how the assignment can be formulated. BIS Review 44/2000  2  The bank management’s reaction to independence When the new Executive Board met before the New Year in 1999 to draw up policy for independence, the starting point was that the Bank was to work in conditions of complete openness. A very substantial openness is required for the Riksbank’s monetary policy to obtain public confidence and for the approach to an inflation target to be completely understood. This has been our lodestar when planning our work. 1. The Riksbank’s target for stable prices is given as 2% inflation measured by the consumer price index with a tolerance interval of 1% in each direction. When we consider that the CPI has been affected by factors that do not permanently affect the CPI, we can, however, decide to disregard these. The reason is that if we try to counteract these, it would lead to unnecessary fluctuations in production. 2. The underlying material for the monetary policy decisions is published.

At the same time, an increasing proportion of lending by the banks is to smaller enterprises and households, where the possibility of evaluating the credit risk in a traditional way is poorer than for large companies. Altogether therefore considerably higher demands are made on the banks’ risk management systems than previously. Major investments in knowledge on modern financial economy and IT-based risk systems are required for instance. This development is taking place at the same time as increased competition is tending to squeeze profits and information technology is changing the conditions for provision of payment services. When traditional bank activities shrink and change, the direction of activities has to be reviewed. The banks can for instance opt to take part in the provision of capital in the securities market and generate profits by charging fees for this activity. One strategy may be to offer businesses and private persons all financial services such as advice, insurance and payment services. In order to be competitive, larger banks are then often required, which is a driving force behind the increased frequency of bank mergers and mergers between banks and insurance companies taking place. Another alternative is of course to concentrate activities and become competitive within a particular niche. Small and medium-sized enterprises need for instance to have access to capital via banks which are able to obtain knowledge on the risks associated with lending to these. The possibility of turning to the securities market to have their need of capital satisfied should above all be confined to large businesses.
However, it is likely that the distribution of income will be affected in terms of growing gaps between those with and without higher education. Wage shares have fallen in many countries, without any real explanation, while profits in the OECD area have been at an all-time high. Technological developments have led to both increased profits and increased demand for highly-educated labour in relation to less qualified. The possibility that increased competition from low-wage countries could be part of the explanation cannot be entirely ruled out. However, there is no support in the statistics to say that economies that are more dependent on foreign trade have higher unemployment than others. It is rather the other way round; that increased trade often goes hand in hand with lower unemployment and higher welfare. The rapid market growth in such large countries as China and India means that demand for goods and services produced in the old industrial nations increases. The investment in research and development in China and the transition to increasingly advanced production does not mean that "all jobs” will move there. Experiences from Europe’s trade exchange with Japan and Korea in recent decades indicates a different development. There one can see that an increasing percentage of trade has developed to become what is known as inter-sector trading, that is, one exchanges goods with one another that are produced using roughly the same technology.

Bandid Nijathaworn: Financial developments and the Thai banking sector Keynote address by Dr Bandid Nijathaworn, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Third Euromoney Thailand Investment Forum, Bangkok, 10 June 2009. *  *  *  Thank you and Good morning First let me thank Euromoney for the invitation. It is an honour to be speaking to you today. For the last few years that I have been coming to this forum to speak, I find the session to be very useful as it provides an excellent opportunity for us at the Bank of Thailand to interact and share our views with investors on Thailand’s current issues, including our policies. So, it is a pleasure to be here this morning. My topic today is about financial developments and the Thai banking sector. Given the limitations of time, I want to focus my remark today on two issues. The first is the short-term issue about the current economic and financial conditions, and the policy response that we have had in trying to strengthen the process of recovery. Next, I will speak on the mediumterm issue of financial sector reform, beginning with how we see the new or the post-crisis financial landscape emerging and our plan to respond to these changes in the context of our financial sector Master Plan. First, the current conditions. Latest economic data in Thailand continues to show deterioration in economic activities as evidenced by the estimated decline of 7.1 percent in this year’s first quarter GDP growth.
Since the inflation risk premiums are low, employees will not need to demand extra high nominal wages to insure themselves against unexpectedly high inflation. This is because it can be anticipated that the central bank will tighten monetary policy. This in turn will mean that less stringent measures will probably be required than would be needed by a central bank that had not yet established its credibility. BIS Review 132/1999  2  Turning more specifically to the situation in Sweden, it can be said that the macroeconomic conditions today are favourable: inflation is low, budget deficits have been transformed into surpluses and the prospects for growth are good. However, economic policy is a continuous learning process and the successes of recent years should not be taken as evidence that the structural problems have been solved. On the labour market, for example, structural rigidities remain; also, the tax-pressure is still high, which inevitably distorts incentives to work and save. As far as monetary policy is concerned, the credibility of the inflation target regime has as yet hardly been tested in a period of economic upturn. What does this mean for how much and how often monetary policy should react to changes in the economic outlook? This, of course, is a question that the Executive Board of the Riksbank addresses on an ongoing basis, communicating its views in inflation reports, the minutes of its meetings and speeches.

Commodity exports play a particularly important role in several of the countries that were the first to introduce inflation targeting. The objective of monetary policy is to safeguard the value of money in the long term, and seek to contribute to stabilising economic developments in the short and medium term. The most important contribution monetary policy can make to sound economic developments in the long term is low and stable inflation. The inflation target provides an anchor for economic agents’ expectations concerning future inflation. We have a very open economy with free capital movements. Stable inflation expectations also contribute to more stable krone exchange rate expectations. Inflation targeting means setting the interest rate so as to achieve a numerical target for inflation. Norges Bank sets the interest rate with a view to stabilising inflation at 2.5 per cent within a reasonable time horizon, normally 1-3 years. The more precise horizon will depend on disturbances to which the economy is exposed, and how they affect the path for inflation and output. The inflation target represents a framework for, not an obstacle to, monetary policy’s contribution to stabilising output and employment. We have chosen flexible inflation targeting, i.e. variability in output and employment as well as in inflation is given weight. The objective of monetary policy is low and stable inflation. The instrument is the interest rate. The interest rate influences inflation with a lag and with varying intensity. As interest rates fall, household and local government consumption and investment tend to pick up.
33  Legislative dates for compulsory schooling vary from dates of enforcement. Barro-Lee Educational Attainment Dataset: http://www.barrolee.com/ 35 Bolton (2012). 36 Willetts (2017). 37 Bolton (2012) for data from 1950 to 2000. 2016 data from Department of Education. 38 Bolton (2012) and Universities UK (2017). Refers to full-time first degrees only. 34  10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  10  Raising levels of skills and training for workers is one way of limiting the costs of technological disruption. Providing them with access to finance or housing is another. This support helped smooth the hit to incomes th  th  and lifestyles brought about by job displacement. Starting in the late 18 and early 19 centuries, at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, financial institutions began to emerge to provide financial support through bridging loans, often operating on collective or co-operative principles. In the UK, the Friendly Societies Act of 1819 established today’s credit unions. The Regulation of Benefit Building Societies Act followed in 1836. Other sets of institution emerged to support workers in wider ways. Trade unions grew in importance during th  the 18 century, as workers’ jobs were hollowed-out and their share of the income pie was consumed. th  Unions gained rights progressively during the 19 century, culminating in the foundation of the Trade Union Congress (TUC) in 1868. The Trade Union Act of 1871 gave unions fully-fledged legal status.

Dear Brothers, A review of the topics addressed on the first day of this conference by the distinguished speakers shows that they touched upon important issues and gave a future vision of housing in the Kingdom, and how to benefit from the experiences of different countries in this area. Today will be an extension of those topics that are directly related to housing finance. In general, I find that the conference broadly covers all aspects of housing finance in the Kingdom. In conclusion, I thank the audience and the organizers of this conference, and wish you all success in your deliberations. 2  BIS Review 14/2007
If we are to believe the cliché, 'regulation' and 'innovation' are incompatible. On the contrary! Regulation without innovation would just be sterile conservatism, while innovation without regulation and financial stability would be devoid of the trust that is the sine qua non of sustainability. So, to accompany you as you eat your lunch, I'm going to combine these two ingredients, first as part of a hearty main course on the lessons of the crises of 2023 (I), followed by a slightly newer and more forward-looking recipe for the digitalisation of currency and payments (II). I. 2023, illustration of the virtues of regulation The events of 2023 have served as a reminder of the fundamental need for a regulatory framework. Page 2 of 6 The first warning came in the banking sector. Despite the shock waves emanating from the United States and then Switzerland, the banking crisis has not affected the euro area or France in particular, even though we remain on our guard. There is a good reason for this solidity: more solid fundamentals, but above all two inseparable pillars - effective regulation, coupled with proactive supervision. Basel III regulations apply in full to all European banks, but only to 13 banks in the United States. Therefore, the priority is not to keep reworking Basel III requirements – and delaying their application – but to apply them everywhere and as quickly as possible. In a nutshell, more Basel III now, rather than some hypothetical delayed Basel IV.

2023 Paris Finance Forum – Paris, 5 July 2023 Regulation and innovation: the yin and yang of the financial sector  Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France  Page 1 of 6 Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a real pleasure to be taking part in the Paris Finance Forum and I wish to warmly thank Augustin de Romanet for his invitation, and Europlace for their work. Europlace has contributed to the growing interest in the Paris financial centre in the wake of Brexit. As I have the privilege of speaking this lunchtime, I shall begin with dessert. According to an excellent Bloomberg article,i "If any city can make claim to being the European Union’s new pre-eminent hub, it’s Paris". Paris is the only financial centre to offer a broad range of financial activities – from global asset management to insurance and banking and market activities – and it has benefited from the relocation of all segments of the financial industry. Paris has now overtaken London as Europe's largest financial centre in terms of stock market capitalisation. With the presence of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), there is also a 'regulatory hub' – to which I should add the ACPR, generally recognised as an exacting but extremely competent supervisor. The Paris financial centre is therefore a good illustration of harmonious coexistence between regulation and innovation. In my view, these are the yin and yang of the financial sector.
Increased competition means that companies must become more efficient and cost-conscious, which in turn should have a positive effect on productivity. In addition, a new competition act came into force in Sweden in 1993, containing an expressed prohibition of co-operation between companies that limits competition, as well as a ban on the misuse of a dominant position. There has also been deregulation in a number of areas. For instance, government monopolies have been abolished and freedom to establish businesses has been introduced with regard to, for instance, transport, communication and energy. Changed conditions for competition thus affect productivity growth, but they can also affect price trends in a more direct manner. Despite the fact that we gained much tougher competition legislation in 1993, it appears that developments in this field are moving rather slowly. Swedish prices continue to lie at a higher level than those in other countries in most areas, without this being fully explained by differences in VAT rates and wages. Increased competition could contribute to a convergence of price levels. High food prices Swedish food prices were, for instance, more than 18 per cent higher than the average prices in the 3 EU in 1998 . The difference has declined somewhat since then, but apparently at a very slow rate. If one regards 1998 prices in current terms with the aid of HICP development since then, one finds that  3  Eurostat's survey of the price level index for 1998, published in 2000.

The longer the krona remains 2  2  These calculations are based on a Cobb-Douglas production function with a constant returns to scale. BIS Review 78/2001  undervalued, the greater the risk of bad investments being made in domestic businesses. I do not intend to go into these issues in greater detail here and now, but would nevertheless like to point out that undesirable effects on business can arise through a misaligned currency giving flawed relative prices. Companies may make decisions regarding investment and employment on the basis of these relative prices. The foremost risk here is that too many resources will be drawn to the export sector and to the import competition sector before there is a return to the equilibrium exchange rate and to corresponding relative prices. At that point, the resources overinvested in these sectors will be transferred to other sectors. We know from previous structural changes in, for instance, shipping, steel manufacture and the property sector, that such a development would result in considerable costs to the real economy. One should not underestimate the importance for welfare of a correctly valued Swedish krona. Openness is important Factor productivity is also affected by a country's capacity to utilise technological progress in the outside world. This capacity in turn depends on how open the country is to impulses from outside, which is determined by the barriers that exist to ideas, goods, services and production factors moving freely across the borders.
The Banking Law that was enacted by Parliament in the summer of 1999, and the amendments made during the last month, were aimed at giving the banking system the necessary efficiency and soundness. In conclusion, let me summarise recent history. We have been working on this program for the past two years. Its technical excellence accurately reflects well the effort that has gone into it. I do not hesitate to say that the program is “comprehensive”, “strong”, “ambitious”, “bold” and “imaginative”, and most of all “achievable”. The willingness of the political authorities to execute this program is clear from the way they have taken the necessary but politically difficult economic decisions: quickly, without hesitation or second thoughts. The IMF and the World Bank have strongly endorsed the program, the former by approving for Turkey a three-year standby arrangement, and the latter by extending project credit. The prospect of membership negotiations with the European Union pursuant to the Helsinki decision provides an additional strong incentive to implement the program forcefully. There is a strong autonomous ownership of the program. The Government, the Parliament, policymakers, and the social partners all understand the great rewards, particularly in terms of reduced interest costs and stable growth, that will follow the program’s successful implementation. The markets’ reactions to the program have also been very positive. Interest rate declined from 100% last October to the 30s recently.

On the demand side, private consumption remains strong, growing more than 7% per annum in the first quarter of this year. Consumption is backed by the sustained growth in salaried employment and good financial conditions. But the main change has been the recovery of fixed capital investment which went from an average increase of 2.4% during the last three quarters of 2006, to a solid 7.9% in the first quarter of this year. Behind this strong investment are good corporate profits and favorable credit conditions, the progressive exhaustion of output gaps and good prospects for growth. In addition, exports of goods and services have strengthened, going from average growth of 3.8% in the last three quarters of 2006, to an average around 10% in the first quarter of 2007. Recent fuel price hikes begun in January have acted as a brake to the expansion of private consumption, through their effect on households’ disposable income. The renewed strength of output has also contributed to a remarkable improvement in the labor market, with significant job creation and reduction in the seasonally-adjusted rate of unemployment. From a longer perspective, in the past 13 quarters GDP has grown at an average annualized quarterly rate of 6%, considerably above trend GDP growth. Over the same period, the seasonally-adjusted rate of unemployment went down from 9.5% in 2003 to only 6.8% in the quarter ending last May.
The value of a ‘deeply-out-of-the-money’ option has relatively low correlation with movements in the price of the underlying instrument or the market generally. So a simple measure of riskiness based on historical correlations will mistakenly show a leveraged out-of-the-money option trade as providing a good risk/return trade-off. In the jargon, selling volatility protection can be one way to generate ‘beta disguised as alpha’. One would usually expect that any mispricing of risk here would be counteracted by market forces. Countervailing strategies – buying volatility - should be profitable in the long run. The problem is that it requires patience, persistence and deep pockets. Going ‘long’ volatility means being prepared to make regular small payments and hoping to be compensated by a large irregular payoff. In a world of short run return targets, it is not surprising to find this is unpopular. If mispricing of this sort is underway it would show up in higher asset prices and lower implied volatilities across a range of markets. And implied volatilities are at or around historic lows in equity markets, bond markets, credit markets and foreign exchange markets [Chart 6-8] despite the market turbulence during May and June and recent rumblings on the dollar. BIS Review 124/2006  5  6  BIS Review 124/2006  Implications of low risk premia These low levels of implied volatility – and associated low level of risk premia – can have real implications for the economy and the stability of the financial system.

Mark Carney: The spirit of the season Speech by Mr Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, to the Economic Club of New York, New York City, 9 December 2013. *  *  *  Accompanying charts can be found at the end of the speech. It is always a pleasure to be in New York during the festive season. At this time of year in this city everything seems possible. However for some time now, appearances have deceived. The hopes and dreams of the holiday season have gone unfulfilled as the bright lights of December have given way to the grim realities of January. Around this time every year policymakers, investors and economists take stock. For four of the past five years, perhaps caught up in the seasonal spirit of goodwill, they have rendered the same verdict: the outgoing year was disappointing but the incoming one will be better (Chart 1). This year is no different. The IMF, the Bank of England and private forecasters all predict faster growth in the advanced and global economies in 2014. Will such hopes again be dashed once the New Year dawns? More profoundly, as the string of disappointments lengthens, some are raising deeper questions. It is being suggested that a malign spirit, a spectre of Christmases past, haunts our future. In particular, no less an authority than Larry Summers has raised the prospect that “secular stagnation” could be the root cause of past excess and current weakness.