samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
While growth in both the Asian and Latin American emerging economies remains below par, the latest indicators show that the United States and the United Kingdom appear to have picked up speed, following the weak first-quarter results this year. Economic recovery is also holding up in the euro area. GDP grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of this year and, on the latest preliminary estimate released last Friday, by 0.3% in the second quarter. For the year as a whole, projections envisage figures of around 1.5%, considerably up on end-2014 estimates. Private consumption continues to be the driving force here, while the contribution of private investment remains moderate. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Turning to inflation, both actual and projected euro area rates have now turned around from the declining trajectory marking their path throughout 2014, but inflation is still some way off the ECB’s reference level of 2% for the euro area. The favourable performance of euro area economic activity and prices is underpinned by certain external factors, such as the pick-up in the global economy and lower oil prices, but also by other factors whose origin lies in the economic policy decisions adopted by the national governments and the European authorities. These include most notably the reforms undertaken in different countries and the more neutral stance of fiscal policies.

Among the many factors that have influenced the work of the Committee over the years, I thought I would identify five that have shaped what the Committee is today and will continue to guide its activities in the future. The first and most obvious is the evolution from a coordinating and information-sharing group to one that has become a standard setter. Although the 1975 Concordat was the Committee’s first substantive agreement, and its first public document, it was not a standard per se: rather, it was a sensible agreement on how supervisory responsibilities could be divided for banks operating across national boundaries. Its goal was modest: to make sure no bank could escape supervision. It did not try to harmonise supervisory standards. And, of course, it was primarily directed at supervisors, not banks themselves. In subsequent years, the Committee pronounced on international lending and foreign exchange positions. These documents began to set expectations for the way in which banks should manage these risks, but they were not standards in the way we use the word today. It was the first Basel Accord that really marked this new role for the Committee. As in 1974, a severe crisis triggered this step – in that case, the Latin American debt crisis of the early 1980s, which raised the political pressure for banks to increase their capital base and for the regulators to create an international level playing field in this respect.
Was this a too adventurous path to embark on? The toughest challenge for monetary authorities, as financial markets become too addicted to central bank guidance, is to identify smart ways to communicate in due course how and in which manner the shift to normalisation will take place, while also clarifying the limits of their actions and influence. All for a pretty good reason: avoid a possible addiction crisis that could in itself lead to turmoil and volatility. The real test for forward guidance is not the manner or techniques used to disseminate information, it rather occurs when the forward guided policies are implemented. That is the point where the actions meet or not the expectations fuelled beforehand. Forward guidance relies on the central banks’ credibility, validated in time by matching its commitments, a quick adjustment of messages, clear accountability for forecast errors and even for misjudgements. It is also important to explain the context in which they operate. In monetary policy communication, the guidance of expectations, constant explanations and educational projects have been building knowledge and trust. Financial stability is a more sensitive area, though. Central banks often come across different views of other public actors: authorities, governments or parliament members. Post-truth environment In a world of uncertainty, with incomplete information about the prospects and state of the economy, information about central banks’ strategy is a necessary, although insufficient, condition for the general public and market participants to understand decisions and shape their expectations.

The letter also expressed that further monetary accommodation would depend on the factors affecting the medium term inflation outlook. Food and energy prices and global uncertainties have continued to rise since then, feeding into inflation expectations and core prices and thus increasing the risks regarding price setting behavior and the degree of inflation persistence. Consequently, the MPC decided to suspend the rate cuts in the March meeting and announced in the April meeting a clear tightening bias to be exercised when deemed necessary. 3. Inflation outlook  Distinguished Guests and Members of the Press, Now that I have summarized inflation and monetary policy developments, I would like to share with you our evaluations of the inflation and monetary policy outlook. Current supply and demand conditions support the downward trend in inflation. Data on consumer credits suggest that monetary conditions continue to be non-accommodative. Annual growth rates in automobile and housing loans are at lower levels compared to the periods of vigorous domestic demand (Figure 8). Although consumer credits displayed signs of recovery in 2007, the cautious monetary policy stance and the tightening in global credit conditions are likely to restrain credit expansion in the forthcoming period.
One natural cross-check is market expectations about the future interest rate, as represented by implied forward interest rates (adjusted for risk and term premia). In addition, simple interest rate rules like the Taylor rule and other variants suggested in the literature provide potentially useful cross-checks. Experiences What are our experiences of our communication approach? The ultimate objective of our communication is to achieve better outcomes in terms of improved stability in inflation and the real economy. However, with less than three years of being fully transparent about our future policy intentions, it is too early to draw a conclusion regarding macroeconomic stability. An intermediate objective of communication is to provide a better understanding of the Bank’s reaction pattern. One test of this to consider the volatility of market interest rates on the day Norges Bank decides the interest rate. If the new communication approach has been successful, one should expect that the interest rate decisions are more predictable. Chart 5 shows the magnitude of market rate changes on the day the interest rate is decided. We see that volatility in market interest rates has on average been smaller after we started publishing our interest rate forecasts. Although one cannot exclude the possibility that the  4  BIS Review 94/2008  reduction in volatility is caused by other factors than policy communication, it seems that our reaction pattern has become somewhat better understood.

Inflation rates have been falling in most countries and they have registered appreciable expansion in economic activities with GDP growth rates averaging at about 5% in 2007. In addition, most countries have become more democratic in political circles, giving more say to the public on the running of governments and their institutions. Distinguished Participants, allow me now to turn to the subject we are gathered here for, that is, “Central Bank Governance”. Good corporate governance is generally acknowledged as  BIS Review 26/2008  1  important in economic management. In this regard, Central bank governance is arguably defined by a number of key-concepts or pillars, which together should form the basis of an effective legal framework governing a central bank and on which central bank governance should rest, that is, operational independence, democratic accountability and transparency. Despite its common usage, it is not always very clear what central bank transparency amounts to. Generally, two definitions of transparency can be distinguished in the policyoriented literature. Firstly, central bank transparency is referred to as the activities of the central bank in providing information. Thus, in this case, transparency has been defined as the degree to which information on policy actions is available. However, a somewhat broader approach to transparency includes the public’s understanding of the decisions taken by the monetary authorities and the reasoning behind it.
Yves Mersch: Digital transformation - Europe's integrated market of tomorrow Speech by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Joint ECB and European Commission Conference "Into the future: Europe's digital integrated market", Frankfurt am Main, 31 January 2017. * * *  Introduction For over a decade the European Commission, the Eurosystem and the market have been working towards transforming what has up to now been a very fragmented financial market infrastructure in Europe into a more integrated one. This work is still ongoing and requires more effort. However, we are at a point now when progress has become tangible. In the first part of my speech, I will briefly take stock of where we stand, particularly with regard to the post-trade area. I will then address two areas where I still see gaps that are in the way of our achieving a truly integrated European financial market. The first area is securities issuance, the second instant payment settlement. In both these areas, digitalisation is opening up new opportunities, which requires action. We at the ECB stand ready to take action accordingly. Integration in the post-trade area Following the launch of T2S in summer 2015 and two further migration waves in 2016, the German market is due to migrate to T2S in less than a week’s time. This latest development is expected to bring a big increase in the volume of securities transactions being settled on the platform.

The goal of having euro area markets where access is as easy and efficient as it is to the respective national market has – with few exceptions – not been met yet. The remaining fragmentation is often the result of legacy and national rules. This fragmentation is an area that calls for action. It may be worth exploring the establishment of a truly European issuance service – at least for some supranational debt instruments. We could even think about the ECB/Eurosystem playing an active role in setting up such an issuance service. And we could consider whether and to what extent new technologies, like distributed ledger technology (DLT), can be used in that process. TARGET instant payment settlement (TIPS) Turning to the retail payments market, I have to say that, despite the introduction of standardised retail payment instruments and harmonised processing rules, the retail payments market infrastructure in Europe is still fragmented. Apart from a few exceptions, automated clearing houses (ACHs) still primarily focus on their respective national markets. The availability of a safe and efficient market infrastructure that can guarantee the processing of instant payments across Europe is a prerequisite for the launch of pan-European instant payment solutions. Payment service providers should have the choice to either clear their instant payments through ACHs or use a settlement service for instant payments. Earlier this month, the Eurosystem launched a market consultation on user requirements and the expected volumes for a settlement service for instant payments in central bank money.
Coordination was also one of the questions discussed in the report by a working group at the Bank for International Settlements, where I was chair, see the Bank for International Settlements (2011). 15  See H M Treasury (2013), which points out, for instance, that "The Government intends that the frameworks for monetary policy and macro-prudential policy, operated by the MPC and FPC of the Bank of England respectively, should be coordinated” (p. 5), and “In order to foster coordination between monetary and macroprudential policy, there is overlap between the membership of the Monetary Policy Committee and the Financial Policy Committee” (p. 10). BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  be what one can call a holistic, or comprehensive, view when formulating both types of policy. If both the credit cycle and the business cycle are to be stabilised in a good way, I do not believe that they can be too far from the policy mix implied by full coordination, at least not over a long period of time. The two types of policy could then counteract or reinforce one another in ways that would be harmful to the economy. It is probably also the case that this interplay is particularly important in sensitive situations, such as preventing a credit boom going too far and ensuring that the credit cycle has a slow, soft downturn instead of a rapid, dramatic one.

It has to spot at an early stage and to correct deviant behaviours. The overall scope of peers’ surveillance should be resolutely broadened to include the competitiveness as well as structural reforms of individual countries, so as to maintain healthy and sustainable growth as the ECB has constantly asked for during the past year. In doing so we will pave the way for a European economy which will have a higher level of growth potential, and which will be prosperous, stable and resilient. The introduction of the single currency represents the greatest achievement to date in the history of European integration – a process that has ensured six decades of peace and prosperity in Europe. Countries that share a common currency share a common destiny. Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 59/2010  5
The experience of previous periods of wide variations in commodity prices indicate that rising prices gradually lead to increased supply and reduced demand. This in turn leads to a fall in prices. Lower futures prices than spot prices for several industrial metals indicate expectations of a price fall. High oil prices over a longer period have boosted petroleum investment. Increased investment activity on the Norwegian continental shelf has accounted for a large share of growth in domestic activity in recent years. There is substantial uncertainty associated with future petroleum investment. The emergence of new, smaller companies will probably contribute to a steady level of investment in a number of small and medium-sized projects in the period ahead. Petroleum investment is expected to remain at a high level in the years ahead, but growth is expected to be more moderate. According to the fiscal rule, the spending of petroleum revenues over time shall be in line with developments in the expected real return on the capital in the Government Pension Fund – Global, estimated at 4 per cent. In the National Budget for 2007, it is estimated that the real return on the Government Pension Fund – Global, measured in NOK, will increase sharply in the years ahead. Oil futures prices are higher than assumed in the National Budget. On the other hand, new forecasts from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate show that petroleum production in the next few years may be significantly lower than assumed in the National Budget.

In the early phases of the upturn, output growth primarily reflected a strong increase in the number of person-hours worked partly owing to the marked increase in average working hours when sickness absence fell in 2004. A high level of inward labour migration after EU enlargement in 2004 also contributed to increasing economic capacity. Historically, there has been a close relationship between the change in prices for domestically produced goods and services and the level of capacity utilisation, here measured by the output gap. This relationship broke down in 2006. Surprisingly low inflation through 2006, despite appreciably stronger output and employment growth, may indicate that developments have been influenced by conditions on the production and supply side of the economy. The present economic expansion differs from previous upturns in that inflation has remained low so far despite strong growth and increasing capacity utilisation. There are probably several reasons for this. First, low import prices and high prices for our commodity exports have improved Norway’s terms of trade considerably. Prices for oil and gas, shipping, fish, industrial commodities and engineering products have increased considerably. Moreover, Norwegian importers have gained access to new markets in central Europe and Asia which offer considerably cheaper consumer goods. The terms of trade have improved by about 40 per cent since 2002. A similar situation has not been seen since World War I when earnings in the shipping industry and other export industries were exceptionally high for a period. Second, an ample supply of labour has boosted output growth.
But the tightness in the labor market may add inflationary pressure, a point in which I have already mentioned. Fourth, the private sector has shown much resiliency and adaptability. For example, in response to the appreciation of the baht, exporters have made increasing uses of foreign exchange hedging instruments. At the same time, the increasingly diversified export market structure has provided Thai exporters with cushions against the current slowdown in major advanced economies. As another example, many private firms, burned by the crisis experience, no longer over-leverage their balance sheets and turn to equity and retained earnings as major sources of funds. Fifth, the banking sector is now much healthier than even a few years ago. The BIS ratio of the entire banking system remained high at 15.3 per cent in May. Despite the economic slowdown, both ratios of gross NPL and net NPL to total loan declined slightly since the third quarter of last year. In fact, the outstanding amount of NPL declined in the last quarter. In addition, the implementation of IAS39 accounting standard in 2006-2007 and the preparation for the adoption of Basel II at the end of this year have together strengthened the stability of our banking system. With insignificant exposures to collateralized debt obligation (CDO) investments, the Thai banking sector as a whole is also immune to the U.S. sub-prime spillover. Last but not least, Thailand is among the world’s top places when it comes to the ease of starting and operating businesses.

Your own Chairman, Prof. A D V de Indraratne, chairs such Committee and we have benefited immensely from the insights and advice rendered by such Committee. In a similar manner, I am certain that the research findings that will be presented by you at the conclusion of this very timely conference, together with the professional views expressed at the technical sessions would help policymakers immensely to reshape their policy focus appropriately. In conclusion, let me emphasize our deep commitment to your theme by referring to our own Mission at the Central Bank. The Vision of the Central Bank is that of being a credible and dynamic Central Bank contributing to the prosperity of Sri Lanka. As set out in our Strategic Plan, the term prosperity has a wider connotation: i.e., the enhancement of the quality of life of people through sustainable wealth creation and inclusion of all segments of the society in enjoying the benefits of development. The Central Bank expects to facilitate this process by ensuring price stability and financial system stability while providing prudential and pro-active policy recommendations, as the Advisor to the Government on Economic Affairs. We have, so far, taken a pro-active stance in the delivery of prosperity and we are encouraging the key stakeholders in our country also, to implement the necessary strategies towards such end. We see the Sri Lanka Economic Association as being a key partner in the delivery of prosperity in our country and we commend you for your commitment and dedication.
13.10.2020  Panel: Macro Economic Policy in Transition – Perspectives from Advanced and Emerging Countries IMF Annual Meetings: Macro Conversations Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  As in the rest of the world, the COVID-19 outbreak has given rise to a health and economic crisis in the euro area that is unprecedented in recent history. And, again, similarly to other jurisdictions, economic authorities have in the face of this situation responded forcefully both at the domestic and European level. In the particular case of monetary policy, in the last seven months, we, at the European Central Bank (ECB), have deployed an extensive package of measures to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the euro area economy. From the outset, the ECB faced three significant pandemic-related challenges: first, the need to stabilise financial markets throughout the euro area, to head off cross-country financial fragmentation; second, to protect the supply of bank credit, which is especially important for funding for households and SMEs in Europe; and third, to counter the downward pressure on the medium-term inflation outlook stemming from the COVID 19 crisis, in accordance with our price stability mandate. Against this backdrop, we adopted a series of measures that may be grouped into two main blocks. As regards the first block, the ECB approved a broad raft of measures to provide liquidity to banks so that they, in turn, were able to ensure access to credit for households and firms. The measures included a significant improvement to the conditions of the TLTRO III operations.

Lars Nyberg: Will cash replace cards? Speech by Mr Lars Nyberg, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the Cards and Cash Payments Forum, Stockholm, 3 May 2011. *  *  *  I would like to thank Björn Segendorff for his contributions to this speech. Since the latter half of the 19th century, the theory of evolution has gained general acceptance. It is considered to be self-evident that better-adapted species will outcompete those that are less-well adapted. Environmental changes may even lead to some species becoming extinct. There are no longer any sabre-toothed tigers or mammoths because the Ice Age is over. A new species may also be superior to another species in a crucial way. This is why we no longer see Neanderthals walking the streets. Nevertheless, some other amazingly old species are still with us. Crocodiles have been around for 85 million years and the coelacanth, if I am correctly informed, can be traced back 400 million years! An evolutionary process, although of a slightly different kind, is now also taking place on the payment market. Rapid technological development is changing the world around us. New payment methods are arising. Bank cards and credit cards have become a natural part of our everyday lives, as has Internet banking. In Sweden, cheques have been outcompeted and are hardly used at all. The number of paper-based giro payments is falling rapidly and it also appears that the use of cash is declining.