samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
When faced with big decisions, there is a temptation for caution to prevail: do interest rates really need to be moved by that much? Why not wait and see before resorting to the use of unconventional instruments? And indeed the MPC has tended to move rates in relatively small, sequential steps in the past. But I would argue that this is because for much of the period since the MPC was established the outlook for inflation evolved relatively gradually. That all changed following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Since the autumn of last year, we have experienced an unprecedented sequence of events that has caused a substantial re-assessment of the economic outlook and of the stance of policy necessary to keep inflation on track to meet the target. As the economy slowed sharply and inflation threatened to fall substantially below the  BIS Review 86/2009  1  target, the Committee responded with unprecedented actions that were previously confined largely to the realms of theory. I believe that the operation of monetary policy during this period demonstrates the strength of the inflation targeting framework in action. The clear numerical target, combined with a framework of transparency and accountability, impose discipline on the MPC. They ensure that we take the decisions necessary to bring inflation back to target, however “courageous” those decisions might seem.

Jean-Pierre Roth: The current economic and monetary policy situation Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Centro di Studi Bancari, Vezia, 17 September 2007. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  It is difficult to determine to what extent the turmoil in the US sub-prime mortgage market impacts on the real economy. It has hit Switzerland at a time when our economy is in enviably good shape. Should the situation in the financial markets not deteriorate any further, it is hard to imagine these factors abruptly slowing economic growth. With its decision to let the Libor slide back towards 2.75% in the short term, the SNB has clearly signalled to the markets an easing of the situation. In Switzerland, price stability has been maintained for the past 13 years, economic growth is significantly higher than in the 1990s and our unemployment rate is the lowest of all industrialised countries. It is our goal to preserve this favourable situation. BIS Review 102/2007  1
We have to accept it as we do any other misfortune. Otherwise, we will find ourselves back in the 1970s. I do not mean by this that Icelandic wage-earners must make sacrifices. No, I certainly do not want Icelanders to have to sacrifice; I want them to have it as good as possible at all times. I am merely pointing out the best way to safeguard the nation’s living standards now, when we must adapt to a changed reality in the global markets and in international relations. And it is obvious. We must all participate in the fight against inflation – even those who stand outside the labour unions. We cannot stand by and watch the corporate sector cut its ties to Icelandic reality as regards developments in wages. The question of how much the Central Bank may need to raise interest rates to maintain stability will only be answered in the wage settlements this coming autumn. Honoured guests: Iceland’s economic position has never been better, no matter how it is measured. In spite of everything, households’ purchasing power is growing, even though inflation has risen. In spite of everything, household debt has not risen discernibly as a share of disposable income. In spite of everything, homebuyers with nominal-rate loans are paying negative real interest for the first time in 40 years.

But speaking for my own generation studying economics in the nineties – we were idealistic. In my PhD programme, I was joined by people from all over the world who had great hopes for free trade and sensible economic policy, and what the two could do for their own countries and for the world at large. And yes, the invisible hand has performed many miracles since then. Prosperity has grown by leaps and bounds worldwide. In the past 30 years, 1.2 billion people have risen out of abject poverty. To be more specific, in 1990 some 36% of the world’s population lived on the equivalent of less than two US dollars a day. Now only 9% are that destitute. In the West, globalisation has also been a key to improved living standards and price stability over the past 30 years, with the continuous emergence of new ways to make production cheaper and more efficient by moving it between countries. It also created innumerable international opportunities for well-educated people. But there is a dark side to this upbeat picture. Although globalisation narrowed the gap between rich and poor countries, it widened the income gap within many countries. Although the overall outcome has been profit, the benefits have been distributed unequally, and some groups in society lose out. Income inequality has therefore grown in most Western countries in recent years.
Speech  23 September 2022, 6.00 pm  Safeguarding the principles of regulatory policy Speech at the University of Lucerne  Thomas J. Jordan Chairman of the Governing Board * Swiss National Bank Lucerne, 23 September 2022 © Swiss National Bank (speech given in German)  *  The speaker would like to thank Christoph Hirter and Tanja Zehnder for their support in preparing this speech. He also thanks Claudia Aebersold, Petra Gerlach, Carlos Lenz, Alexander Perruchoud and the SNB Language Services. Page 1/5  Ladies and gentlemen Today’s event focuses on the question ‘Is monetary policy still regulatory policy today?’. I congratulate the University of Lucerne on choosing this important topic. Discussions surrounding regulatory policy have faded somewhat into the background of late. For the Swiss National Bank, however, the principles of regulatory policy – in particular those concerning monetary policy – remain of great significance. I am pleased to give you our view on this topic. In my remarks, I will therefore pay special attention to Switzerland and the SNB. First, I will look at why, for the SNB, the two regulatory principles of a clear focus on ensuring price stability and independence from politics are closely related. I will then show why these principles are contradicted by a number of recently launched political initiatives. To conclude, I would like to explain the SNB’s current monetary policy.

Regarding collateral valuation, it cannot be ignored that provisions apply to the uncollateralised part of each loan. Consequently, guarantees pledged to each loan represent a central element in the new approach for measuring credit risk. To fulfill their role, guarantees have to be effective, that is to say, they need to be validated as a mitigant of credit risk. For this to be true they must subject to strict, rigorous and verifiable valuation criteria. To facilitate this last point, banks should have procedures for the valuation of the collateral with updated information based on revised appraisals adapted to changes in the macroeconomic situation and reliable analysis of trends of market prices, particularly for real estate collateral. Finally, estimates of credit losses and provisions should rely on credit risk models developed on a sufficiently quantitative basis where prudence should be reinforced. In any case,  1  See G. Jiménez and J. Saurina: “Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation”, International Journal of Central Banking, 2006. 4/7  estimates should be based on credible assumptions that are sufficiently justified and consistent over time. The methodology used must be readily understandable and the results intuitive. Also, consistency should be an objective. Banks should establish procedures for periodically testing the reliability and consistency of the results obtained. The periodic testing of the calculation of provisions should be done regularly through, for example, back-testing the estimated credit losses with those actually observed in finalised credit operations.
European Central Bank: Press conference – introductory statement Introductory statement by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank and Mr Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, 5 August 2010. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting. Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council views the current key ECB interest rates as appropriate. It therefore decided to leave them unchanged. Considering all the new information which has become available since our meeting on 8 July 2010, we continue to expect price developments to remain moderate over the policy-relevant medium-term horizon, benefiting from low domestic price pressures. The available economic data and survey-based indicators suggest a strengthening in economic activity in the second quarter of 2010, and the available data for the third quarter are better than expected. Looking further ahead, and taking into account a number of temporary factors, we continue to expect the euro area economy to grow at a moderate and still uneven pace, in an environment of uncertainty. Our monetary analysis confirms that inflationary pressures over the medium term remain contained, as suggested by weak money and credit growth. Overall, we expect price stability to be maintained over the medium term, thereby supporting the purchasing power of euro area households.

In order to support the process of fiscal consolidation, to underpin the proper functioning of the euro area and to strengthen the prospects for higher sustainable growth, the pursuit of far-reaching structural reforms is essential. Major reforms are particularly needed in those countries that have experienced competitiveness losses in the past or that are suffering from high fiscal and external deficits. Measures should ensure a wage bargaining process that allows wages to adjust flexibly to the unemployment situation and losses in competitiveness. Reforms to strengthen productivity growth would further support the adjustment process of these economies. We are now at your disposal for questions. BIS Review 104/2010  3
The Swedish National Debt Office issued treasury bills to meet the demand that had arisen for liquid assets. Finansinspektionen amended the regulations for financial companies (to make it easier for them to strengthen their capital bases) and for insurance companies (to reduce shocks to the bond markets). The government and the Riksdag decided to extend the deposit guarantee scheme and to introduce a comprehensive stability plan. Important elements in the stability plan were a guarantee programme for the funding of banks and mortgage institutions, a stability fund, and principles for the management of capital contributions to credit institutions. The Swedish National Debt Office was given a central role in this work as responsible authority for the new guarantee system, the stability fund, and any capital contributions. The extraordinary measures were phased out The Swedish economy made a strong recovery in 2010 and the banks no longer needed to borrow from the Riksbank to manage their funding needs. The Riksbank thus phased out its comprehensive lending to the banks during the summer and autumn of 2010. This phasing out was comparatively simple because, unlike many other central banks, we had not purchased any securities. When the loans expired, the banks repaid their loans, with the whole process taking place comparatively smoothly. The repo rate started to be raised in July 2010.

They should gradually acquire the necessary knowledge, abilities, position and behaviour to take sound financial decisions and be able to deal with emergency situations, like the current one we are experiencing. Concluding, I would like to thank all participants and collaborators of the Bank of Albania in all its educational initiatives and programmes, and particularly for the Global Money Week. Absolutely, such themes as planning personal finance may not be quite attractive to new age groups, nevertheless being aware of their importance and impact on the life of everyone, it is crucial that our institutions never stop their efforts to bring them to the attention of the young people. This is what we have tried to achieve through the activities and competitions that will take place during GMW 2021, and which I kindly invite you to attend. I sincerely thank you for your contribution and I wish a successful performance to all participants! 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Scenarios however, are not projections, predictions or preferences but rather it provides a way of making sense of uncertainties and in addition it challenges our assumptions about what the future holds. Scenario building today is synonymous with thinking broadly and more freely about a problem, enlarging the frames of reference and involving different worldviews, rather than seeing a situation from a single perspective. Essentially scenario planning interventions have been most useful in supporting the construction of multiple frames of future states of possibilities. The process of scenario planning enhances the evaluation and integration of information and promotes contingency planning. Scenarios are also important for risk management. As risk is inherent in any business activity the framework becomes a useful tool in risk assessment and management. Most of all a major risk in the current environment is the lack of preparedness for how the environment might change and for the new challenges that may emerge. To attempt to predict these changes in any specific manner in this environment would be highly speculative. The risk management process therefore involves preparing for, rather than attempting to predict the change. This would promote an increased level of preparedness to cope with the inevitable changes. Scenarios also help to connect strategies and action plans to our visions. Using scenarios will essentially widen our perspectives, increase our understanding of the issues and developments. It also allows us to see opportunities that we may otherwise miss. New developments emerging would be seen from different angles and perspectives.

Business’ demand for loans persists to be the sole lending increase source, whereas loan to households continues to shrink in annual terms, for the fifth consecutive month. During this period there are transmitted also the first signals on an easing of lending standards from banks, but this step is applied only on large-sized business. Fiscal stimuli developed at more controlled paces in the first 4-month period of year, providing a lower contribution on the economic activity during this period. Fiscal policy has  BIS Review 77/2010  1  maintained an encouraging character, but at a lower rate relative to the same period of previous year. Budget deficit amounted to ALL 5.3 billion, contracted by 47 percent in annual terms. The low economic activity is reflected on the low growth by about 3 percent of budged revenues during the first 4-month period of year. On the other side, budget expense recorded a reduction by about 2 percent from the rate recorded in the previous year. Bank of Albania continues to draw the attention that, notwithstanding the short-term positive effects the fiscal stimuli may generate; the long-term stability of public sector should remain the main leader of fiscal policy. The lesson from the current problematic situation involving many European Union countries, is the indispensability for consolidation of public finances and for that purpose the implementation of important correcting measures at quickest time, is a target of strategic importance.
The Committee is now finalizing the process of reviewing the comments received on this consultation and plans to issue a further consultation paper in the coming months. Let me offer some personal reflections at this stage, which should not be understood as preempting the outcome of this work. In particular, in deciding how best to harness the potential benefits from these markets while mitigating their risks in a world of uncertainty, in my view, it makes sense to err on the side of caution and prudence. In this regard, how many asset classes market themselves as being “stable” and “currencies” while often failing on both counts? We have witnessed some clear examples along these lines during the last few weeks. Additionally, as mentioned earlier, banks' crypto-asset exposures are currently limited, which means that there is currently very little activity that could even be shifted to the non-bank sector as a result of a conservative prudential approach. Finally, if there are unregulated areas of the financial system, including the emergence of a "shadow" crypto financial system, then the appropriate response is to bring these areas within the relevant regulatory perimeter, instead of diluting banking prudential regulation. The cross-border cooperation has been particularly visible in the adoption of international standards aimed at preventing the use of virtual assets in illicit transactions.

We could in fact attach more importance to the current as opposed to the forecast future rate of inflation but that would probably call for rather large repo rate adjustments in order to keep inflation stable around the target. Such an approach would result in sharp fluctuations in real economic activity, which would naturally not be desirable. Are there any developments which suggest that the time lag for effects of interest rate adjustments may be becoming shorter? More and more home owners are switching from fixed to variable mortgage rates, which may indeed tend to speed up the impact of monetary measures. But there are other factors which may be working in the opposite direction, towards a longer time lag. One example is the costs involved in altering prices. One of the benefits of low and stable inflation is precisely that it facilitates contracts with a longer duration. Insofar as the establishment of a low-inflation regime has led to price movements being more restrained for this reason, it follows that it will take longer for monetary policy measures to impinge on prices. For monetary policy’s time horizon, there are therefore arguments in both directions. The problem of faulty forecasts is limited, however, in that monetary policy is implemented continuously. Moreover, current information about economic tendencies can be accorded more weight than events that lie further ahead and the forecasts can be revised as time passes.
ASEAN+6 or Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) This FTA builds on the existing five ASEAN Plus One FTAs. Negotiations have been going on for some time but the pace has picked up recently as rising trade tensions have underscored the importance of enhancing economic integration to build resilience When it is signed, RCEP will be the world’s largest trading bloc in terms of population, covering nearly 3.5 billion people, and accounting for a third of the world’s GDP. Second headwind – tightening global financial conditions. As the Fed continues to raise interest rates and unwind its balance sheet, global liquidity conditions will tighten and financial market valuations will come under further pressure. Asset revaluations will be keenly felt in EMEs, which have benefited from large investor inflows driven in part by investors’ search-for-yield in the post-GFC period. In Emerging Asia, some economies will face higher financing costs, rising external debt burdens, short-term capital outflows, and heightened currency volatility. We have already seen some signs of these pressures. They are to be expected – as part of the normal adjustment to the normalisation of global financial conditions. ASEAN is well placed to deal with these pressures as well as contagion effects from EMEs in other parts of the world First, economic fundamentals in ASEAN are stronger. Growth is good – it is close to or above potential across the ASEAN-4 (Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines). Inflation has been subdued. Current accounts are in surplus or only a small deficit.

The US is of course the biggest export market in the world but total US imports account for only 3% of global GDP. Many other countries – especially in Emerging Asia – are trading among themselves without a nexus to the US. These trading linkages will grow over time as demand in these economies grows with a rising middle class, urbanisation, and investment in infrastructure. All the same, a prolonged period of trade tensions is not good for the global economy. The more serious casualty is perhaps not trade but investment. Corporates may scale back investment amidst uncertainty. This will reduce the productive capacity for future growth, delay technological upgrading, and compromise productivity growth. This is why the best response to unilateral trade restrictions is to push ahead with further trade liberalisation among other willing parties instead of retaliation and escalation. If countries do not retaliate against tariffs imposed by the US, the cost to their own 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  economies is likely to be contained. And a mutually damaging trade war would be averted. And this is what Emerging Asia is doing – liberalising trade within the region and with others. TPP-11 or Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) This will reduce barriers across economies with a GDP of $ trillion, roughly 13.5% of the world economy. It is expected to be ratified early next year. And five to six more countries have expressed interest in joining the CPTPP.