samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In 1995 and 1996, however, the growth of real wages, which - if aggregated over all sectors - was faster than the increase in productivity, became one of the potential inflationary dangers. The nominal anchor of the fixed exchange rate played an important role in the relatively good Czech results in fighting inflation. Instead of repeated smaller devaluations as in Poland or Hungary, the Czech Republic used a combination of a large initial devaluation and a subsequently fixed nominal exchange rate. In 1990 - before the start of the full transformation programme - the currency was devalued by more than 50%. That subsequently enabled us to keep the nominal exchange rate stable for five years. After the introduction of a wider 7.5% fluctuation band in 1996, the exchange rate is within the band. Transformation involved so much fundamental change that its start inevitably led to an initial fall of output and GDP. However, part of the former higher output level was simply feeding the enormous waste which went on throughout the command economy. In 1993, GDP stagnated partly due to the split-up of Czechoslovakia. Economic growth was resumed in the Czech Republic in 1994 and continued in 1995 and 1996 as a fast growth period. Unemployment has been kept low during the whole transformation period, thanks mainly to the rapid emergence of new private firms, and a large shift of labour into the previously underdeveloped service sector.

In this environment, macroprudential policies that slow the build-up of household leverage ex-ante can be  32  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  32  welfare-improving in avoiding this outcome. Farhi and Werning (2016) also offer a model of macroprudential policy in the face of aggregate demand externalities. Another strand of the literature emphasises behavioural sources of pro-cyclicality. For example, powerful narratives, such as a collective belief in a ‘new paradigm’, might manifest themselves in over-exuberance in the financial system (Tuckett (2011), Shiller (2017)). Myopia about risk might also drive excessive risk-taking, especially as memories of past financial crises fade (Guttentag and Herring (1986), Herring (1998), Haldane (2009b), Gennaioli, Schleifer and Vishny (2012)). And such behaviour might be amplified by contracts that reward short-term performance excessively and by herding in financial markets (Avery and Zemsky (1998), Lakonishok et al (1992), Bikhchandani and Sharma (2001)). Aikman, Nelson and Tanaka (2015) show how reputational concerns and peer benchmarking can drive credit cycles. The case for macroprudential interventions to address build-ups in leverage also has empirical support. Mian and Sufi (2010) argue that the persistence of the decline in US GDP after the crisis was caused by excessive household leverage. Jordà et al (2013) report that credit booms not only increase the likelihood and severity of financial crises, but also make normal recessions more painful.
By the time Bank Rate had exerted its full influence on the price level, the effect of the shocks was likely to have already dissipated, if not reversed. Second, Bank Rate would have dampened inflation by adding even more downwards pressure on demand on top of the existing recessionary forces. The consequent fall in output and rise in unemployment would have been greater. These two considerations mean that a monetary policy response would most likely have only injected extra volatility to inflation: by the time the price shocks wore off, we would have been facing a severe undershoot of the inflation target and deflation would have been a distinct possibility. The path of output would have been unnecessarily volatile and the deviation of inflation from target might have been different but no more acceptable. The possibility of such shocks, and indeed the ability to respond as we have done, was foreseen when the inflation target regime was conceived. Indeed our Remit from the Government is clear on the consequences. The Remit says that (with my emphasis): “The framework takes into account that any economy at some point can suffer from external events or temporary difficulties, often beyond its control. The framework is based on the recognition that the actual inflation rate will on occasions depart from its target as a result of shocks and  4  The latter would affect CPI directly though its impact on imported consumer goods and services, and indirectly by affecting the cost of domestic production reliant on imported intermediate inputs.

Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid: Ethics & professionalism - leaders as role models for the next generation of Islamic finance professionals Speech by Mr Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Chartered Institute of Islamic Finance Professionals (CIIF) 4th Anniversary Dinner and Conferment Ceremony, Kuala Lumpur, 6 November 2019. * * * I wish to extend my sincerest thanks to the Chartered Institute of Islamic Finance Professionals (CIIF) for inviting me here this evening to join the celebrations for the 4th anniversary of the Institute as well as the conferment ceremony of the Chartered Professional in Islamic Finance (CPIF) professional designation. I understand that this evening will also see the conferment of the first ever Fellows from amongst the existing Chartered members of the Institute, all of whom have served the Islamic finance industry with distinction over the years. The Institute’s efforts to support the professionalisation of the Islamic financial services industry is part of a long journey that we embarked on some time ago, forming a key step towards achieving a vision of an industry that is rich with talent. Developing talent development together as an industry Recognising that talent development is a long-term endeavour, Bank Negara Malaysia had set out the initial plan in the Financial Sector Blueprint 2011–2020 in which several affiliate institutions had been identified as having crucial roles to play in the development of talent for financial services industry as a whole.
Basel II represents a significant step towards achieving a more risk-sensitive supervisory approach. It will enhance banks’ safety and soundness, thereby strengthening the stability of the financial system as a whole and ensuring that it can better serve as a source for credit and growth for the economy. I believe that the framework should be adopted as soon as possible, according to the proposed implementation date, to realise the benefits of a stronger and more stable financial system in a global competitive world. I like to think of the new capital framework as an opportunity. An opportunity to ensure that regulation and supervision takes a forward-looking approach to capital and risk management, that it remains up-to-date with sound practices in the industry and that our supervisory framework motivates sound capitalisation, responsible risk-taking, transparency and prudent behaviour. It also represents an unparalleled opportunity for banks to improve their capital strategies and risk management systems. And finally, it provides supervisors with an opportunity to improve their dialogue with the industry and to enhance co-operation among banking supervisors across jurisdictions. This last point is crucial to achieving effective and consistent implementation and it is an area in which I strongly believe that the European Union is in a unique position to lead the way. As I will comment  BIS Review 3/2005  1  later, I believe that the EU can make faster and more tangible progress in this area than is currently possible on a wider international basis.

This is understandable because, under the prolonged period of quantitative easing by the major central banks in the advanced economies, bank deposits and bonds offer rather low and unattractive interest income. As for the stock market, the volatility in share prices will expose the retirees to significant market risks. As a result, there can be a fairly large group of retirees who find them not having enough cash flows to support a decent retirement life, despite the fact that the properties they own and occupy are worth quite a lot. 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  At the same time, their cash savings are basically left idle, yielding very little, if any, cash flow income. Many old folks would feel apprehensive to dip into the principals of their bank savings to meet daily expenses, as this would expose them to the uncertain but rather scary longevity risk. This situation is not unique in Hong Kong as there are many places that have similar problems. So it may be useful if I share with you the Hong Kong experiment in helping this group of retirees through some market based and financially sustainable solutions. HKMC and Market-based Financial Solutions for Retirees 4. These market based retirement protection solutions are developed and operated by the Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation (HKMC), which was set up in 1997 and is fully owned by the Government through the Exchange Fund managed by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA).
Ladies and Gentlemen, Today's launching of the Citigroup Malaysian Government Securities Index and the Dow Jones-RHB Islamic Malaysia Index, marks another step forward in the development of Malaysia's capital markets. The importance of these two indices should not be underestimated. This initiative by the Citigroup and RHB and Dow Jones is an important contribution to the development of our domestic markets. With globalization, increased connectivity and rapid financial market integration, investors are no longer restricted to investing within their own domestic borders. Indeed the 'home bias' or tendency of investors to invest almost all their assets domestically, has been rapidly dissipating. Investors look abroad for enhanced returns and diversification opportunities. For more than a decade now, the pace of diversification across borders by pension and insurance funds, asset management companies, hedge funds and high net worth individuals has increased dramatically. A region that has emerged strongly in the international investors radar screen is the East Asian region. Strong, sustainable economic growth, rapid expansion in intra-regional trade and investment have led to a correspondingly accelerated pace of development of the capital markets and to an increase in the  BIS Review 49/2005  1  pace of financial liberalization and integration. In this environment, it becomes important to promote well-developed, deep and liquid capital markets. Today's launch of the Malaysian Government Securities index will assist investors who have increasingly been attracted to Malaysian fixed income securities as an important asset class.

Liquidity, profitability and capitalisation indicators are at good levels, while the ratio of non-performing loans has trended down. The Bank of Albania has continued to work for the regulation and prudent supervision of the banking system, pursuant to the legal obligations, as well as to sustain its steady development. Also, we have cooperated with: (i)  other public agencies, to improve the legal framework, align regulatory practices, and identify measures for withstanding systemic shocks;  (ii)  international financial institutions, to develop loan restructuring programmes; and,  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  (iii)  foreign regulatory institutions and parent banking groups operating in Albania, to exchange information. I would like to reiterate that the banking system is solid, liquid and well capitalised for conducting its intermediary function. However, credit growth continues to appear sluggish, due to tight bank lending policies. Maintaining and strengthening banking system soundness is to everyone’s benefit, as this is the only system that, with its funds, may sustain long-term economic growth. Lending is expected to improve slightly during 2015. The Bank of Albania, however, expects an increasingly active role of the banking system in lending and will also take all the needed measures to encourage it. At the conclusion of discussions, the Bank of Albania shares the view that economic policies are performing overall in the right direction.
As I see the Czech Republic a part of the developed world, I believe this is a topic that is relevant to the Czech National Bank. The key constraint or dilemma – or even puzzle, if you will – for us in the central banking community has been one key real variable which we believe is beyond the reach of central bankers. That variable is the real equilibrium, or natural, interest rate. We believe that this variable is absolutely key for the economy and that it is exogenous (i.e. not in hands of anybody, or at least not central bankers). At the same time, it critically influences both the financial sector and the real economy. I have tried to depict what I want to say on this very stylised chart (Chart 1). Chart 1: The role of the equilibrium interest rate  1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  It basically shows that if you have got the natural real equilibrium interest rate at a certain level – and, of course, it is not directly observable, we can only estimate it, like the output gap, for instance – monetary policy must take this variable into account and must in fact respect it. Given the inflation outlook, the movements of nominal interest rates or policy rates should, in an ideal world, imitate those of the equilibrium rate. Or at least they should not deviate much from equilibrium. Why? Because this interest rate interconnects the future, the present and the past.

Broadly speaking, economic and monetary developments and prospects provide growing signs of an ongoing recovery, mostly indicating that the upswing will gain momentum during the coming winter. Some slack still exists in the economy, however. There are no clear signs of a turnaround in the labour market and seasonally adjusted unemployment has still not decreased. Leading indicators such as credit growth, business surveys of labour demand, and growing turnover and imports nonetheless strongly suggest that demand will rise in the near future. Boosted by increased quotas during the  4  BIS Review 45/2003  coming fishing year, more public sector construction projects and aluminium industry investments, a reasonable level of output growth can be expected this year. However, since the growth rate is below estimated potential, the slack in the economy will increase slightly compared with 2002. The growth rate in 2004 is expected to exceed estimated potential at 3½%, meaning that the output gap could turn positive next year. Inflation will nonetheless remain below the Central Bank’s target until the final quarter of 2004, according to the forecast. This is explained by the low current rate of inflation and excess output potential. Two years ahead, inflation is forecast to creep above the target. On the whole the future looks fairly bright, but as always we should not allow the celebrations to get out of hand. BIS Review 45/2003  5
In line with the spirit of Sasana, our meeting point today for the learned and the wise, I look forward to the exchange of ideas at this Conference. In this regard, I would like to humbly offer some thoughts on three areas where the gains from globalisation can be safely acquired, more equitably dispersed, and impose the least cost to society. Firstly, we must make financial globalisation safer and its benefits distributed more equitably. The Global Financial Crisis, and the Asian Financial Crisis, clearly demonstrated the risks and the damage that could be wrought by financial globalisation. It amplified the costs of policy and regulatory lapses and failures in crisis prevention and management. It is interesting to observe that despite consequences primarily associated with financial globalisation, trade has received the brunt of the blame. Let me illustrate – in the wake of the GFC, between November 2008 to December 2009, 390 trade protectionist measures were announced or implemented by 19 of the G20 members. Ironically, financial globalisation channels were not addressed as quickly. It is surprising how policymakers, particularly in the advanced economies, have yet to arrive at a consensus in recognising the harmful effects of free capital mobility that is disconnected with the real economic activity. This is an issue that many remain divided on until today. While we have instituted policy reforms to better manage our financial systems and institutions, more can be done.

François Villeroy de Galhau: New Year wishes to the Paris financial centre New Year wishes to the Paris financial centre by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, Paris, 15 January 2020. * * * I would like to welcome you for this for this happy tradition of extending my New Year wishes to the Paris financial centre. But there are not just financial players here, there are also elected representatives, the press, and many associations that work with us. I would like to start by extending to you, on behalf of the Banque de France and the ACPR, our warmest wishes for 2020, for you and all of your staff. And a special thought goes to all those who are struggling with transport difficulties, or those who have, sadly, been the victim of the unacceptable attacks on branches. Within this tradition, I would like to welcome some new developments: the arrival of Dominique Laboureix as Secretary General of ACPR, alongside Patrick Montagner, Bertrand Peyret, Frédéric Visnovsky, and Emmanuelle Assouan, who will now be in charge of financial stability issues. In a world as hectic as ours, it is risky to make professional wishes. However, I will hazard three wishes for the financial sector in our country: that 2020 will be a year of stabilisation, a year of adaptation and a year of inclusion.
Information technology  In 2015, the aspect of Information Technology saw several achievements. The AFISaR system started to operate. It is a central electronic register for the documentation of each element involved in the issue and transactions with securities by the Albanian state. Other achievements include: -  automation of the reporting system for banking activity indicators;  -  integration and optimisation of the IT network utilisation, reducing therefore operational costs of the Bank of Albania;  -  automation of accounting transactions in Bank of Albania branches and improving information processing and storing capacities. xii. Internal audit  In 2015, in addition to planned audits, auditing and non-auditing commitments were carried out, upon the request of the Supervisory Council, Audit Committee, Administrators and Inspector General. Another important development in this regard was the Quality Assessment for the Control [Internal Audit] Department at the Bank of Albania by the De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB). Conducted for the first time, the assessment serves as an important development plan for strengthening the audit activity in the future. During 2015, nine full-scope audits were conducted. In addition, three full-scope audits started in 2015, but were completed in the first months of 2016, bringing the total number to 12. The findings and recommendations of each audit have been addressed to the heads of the respective units, the Administrators of the Bank of Albania, the Audit Committee and the Supervisory Council, as part of the periodic reporting by the Inspector General. xiii.

Switzerland will only be able to preserve its economic competitiveness and prosperity if its companies continue to be highly flexible and innovative, and if our politicians succeed in maintaining our country’s particularly favourable economic conditions. Turning now to the second part of my speech, I would like to once again take a look back at the global financial crisis. Regulation ten years after the UBS incident Banking system weaknesses exposed by financial crisis  Almost ten years ago, the federal government, FINMA 1 and the SNB were forced to take steps to stabilise UBS and the Swiss financial system, with the state and taxpayers having to temporarily take on the big bank’s risks. Many other countries found themselves confronted with similar problems and also had to rescue banks. The financial crisis brought to light fundamental weaknesses in the international financial system. As regards the banking system and regulation, two aspects stand out in particular. First, at that time many banks’ resilience was inadequate. Relative to their risk exposure, their liquidity and equity buffers were insufficient to absorb major outflows of funds and losses. 1  At that time, Switzerland’s financial market supervisory authority went by the name of the Swiss Federal Banking Commission. Page 3/8  Second, certain banks were so large and interconnected that their collapse would have triggered a chain reaction, dragging down other – fundamentally healthy – financial institutions with them. This would have resulted in considerable costs to the economy.
Looking further ahead, and taking into account temporary effects, the Governing Council continues to expect real GDP to grow at a moderate and still uneven pace over time and across economies and sectors of the euro area. Ongoing growth at the global level and its impact on the demand for euro area exports, together with the accommodative monetary policy stance and the measures adopted to restore the functioning of the financial system, should continue to support the euro area economy. However, the recovery in activity is expected to be dampened by the process of balance sheet adjustment in various sectors and labour market prospects. In the Governing Council’s assessment, the risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced in an environment of uncertainty. On the upside, the global economy and foreign trade may recover more strongly than is now projected, thereby further supporting euro area exports. On the downside, concerns remain relating to the emergence of renewed tensions in  BIS Review 104/2010  1  financial markets, renewed increases in oil and other commodity prices, and protectionist pressures, as well as the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances. With regard to price developments, euro area annual HICP inflation increased to 1.7% in July, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, from 1.4% in June, most likely owing to upward base effects in the energy and food components. In the next few months annual HICP inflation rates are expected to display some further volatility around the current level.

European Central Bank: Press conference – introductory statement Introductory statement by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank and Mr Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, 5 August 2010. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting. Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council views the current key ECB interest rates as appropriate. It therefore decided to leave them unchanged. Considering all the new information which has become available since our meeting on 8 July 2010, we continue to expect price developments to remain moderate over the policy-relevant medium-term horizon, benefiting from low domestic price pressures. The available economic data and survey-based indicators suggest a strengthening in economic activity in the second quarter of 2010, and the available data for the third quarter are better than expected. Looking further ahead, and taking into account a number of temporary factors, we continue to expect the euro area economy to grow at a moderate and still uneven pace, in an environment of uncertainty. Our monetary analysis confirms that inflationary pressures over the medium term remain contained, as suggested by weak money and credit growth. Overall, we expect price stability to be maintained over the medium term, thereby supporting the purchasing power of euro area households.