samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
ACT is dedicated to promoting awareness of how bias and complexity impede a central bank's ability to achieve its objectives, and to establishing alternative mindsets and methods to confront these challenges. One of ACT's key initiatives, inspired by the learnings in Superforecasting, is implementing a tournament at the New York Fed with the goal of giving Bank staff the opportunity to assess their use of the practices for which Tetlock advocates. In conclusion, models and quantitative tools, like the ones we are discussing, can take us a long way. But they are designed to answer specific questions that are at best strong building blocks to the broader questions that policymakers grapple with. Being rigorous in our evaluation of these building blocks is critical, as is openness to other forms of information and approaches. The insights from Superforecasting are relevant for both the evaluation of specific tools and asking questions not addressed by these tools. Tetlock ends the book with Ten Commandments for good forecasting. However, in the spirit of being humble around forecasting problems, he adds an eleventh commandment: "Don't treat commandments as commandments." A version of this I would like to leave you with is to not treat any particular model or quantitative tool as the whole truth; no matter how sophisticated the underlying technical details may be, keep questioning assumptions about how the economy works and be always open to contradictory information, not just confirming evidence.

Simon M Potter: Models only get you so far Remarks by Mr Simon M Potter, Executive Vice President of the Markets Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, for the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and New York's First Annual Joint Research Day on Quantitative Tools for Monitoring Macroeconomic and Financial Conditions, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 22 February 2019. * * * Accompanying Figures of the speech. As prepared for delivery It is a pleasure to deliver the lunchtime address during the Atlanta and New York Fed's first annual research day on quantitative tools for monitoring macroeconomic and financial conditions.1 My remarks will focus on some insights from the book Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, with respect to how we interpret, use, and evaluate the results from our quantitative tools.2 If you have read the book, subtitled "The Art and Science of Prediction," you will probably be aware that it is much less mathematical than the discussions we have been having today, but at the same time is more complex in how it articulates the role of forecasting in good decision-making. Before I continue, I should note that these remarks reflect my own personal views and not necessarily those of the New York Fed or the Federal Reserve System. The insights in Superforecasting grew out of a forecasting tournament sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA).
At the same time, economic activity continues to benefit from the reopening of the economy (which is underpinning spending on services, in particular in the tourism sector), a strong labour market, the support of the savings built up by households during the pandemic and fiscal policy support both at the national and European level thanks to the implementation of NGEU-funded projects. Against this backdrop, the Eurosystem projections published in June envisaged real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2022 (albeit with 2 percentage points (pp) relating to carry-over from 2021) and 2.1% in both 2023 and 2024. These projections represented a further downward revision. For instance, compared with the December 2021 projections, the GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 were down by 1.4 pp and 0.8 pp, respectively. Meanwhile, last week saw the publication of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2022, conducted in early July. The results show a fresh downward revision of real GDP growth expectations from the second quarter, down to 2.8% for 2022 and to 1.5% for 2023 (down 0.8 pp on the previous survey), followed by 1.8% for 2024.

At the same time, the sustainability of national public finances must be ensured; this is essential for the smooth functioning of the monetary union. With this in mind, the European 2  In line with the findings of M. Alloza, D. Leiva León and A. Urtasun (2022), “The response of private investment to an increase in public investment”, Analytical Article, Economic Bulletin 2/2022, Banco de España. 3  See P. Cuadrado, M. Izquierdo, J. M. Montero, E. Moral-Benito and J. Quintana (2022). “El crecimiento potencial de la economía española tras la pandemia”, Documentos Ocasionales Nº 2208, Banco de España (English version forthcoming). 6  Commission is reviewing the European fiscal rule framework. In my view the framework needs to be simplified, by establishing an expenditure growth rule and a debt-to-GDP ratio anchor, and countries’ capacity to build up fiscal buffers in good times for use in crises needs to be reinforced. In the case of Spain, shoring up the sustainability of public finances calls for a medium-term fiscal policy strategy. This should involve immediately setting out a multi-year fiscal consolidation plan for implementation once the economic impact of the pandemic and of the war in Ukraine has been overcome. The plan should have broad political consensus and be accompanied by an efficiency review of public spending and the tax system, including all tiers of general government.
Household consumption played a central role in this respect: this began to recover towards the end of 2003 in the wake of the general economic upturn and the rise in earnings. A good showing by the construction sector also contributed to higher demand for household equipment. In contrast to their counterparts in Germany, Swiss consumers remained relatively optimistic in 2004, and this helped to sustain the level of business activity. Where public-sector demand is concerned, the financial constraints imposed by the Confederation and cantons put a brake on the growth in spending in 2004. For the first time in several years, public-sector demand rose less quickly than the other components of domestic demand. In this initial phase in the economic cycle, the return of confidence would normally have triggered growth in investments aimed at adapting the means of production to future needs. But such an upsurge has so far been largely absent, both in Switzerland and in other European countries. Although the profitability of companies has improved, they have given priority to raising the utilisation of existing  BIS Review 30/2005  1  capacity rather than expansion or modernisation, as the latter are considered to entail substantially more risks. As a result, growth in capital spending was modest in 2004. This cautious approach by companies also affected the development of the labour market: contrary to expectations, unemployment fell only slightly in the past year.

This year, CHF 885 million have been reserved for this purpose, and similar sums will have to be set aside in the future. The closing of our accounts for 2004 thus brings with it an extraordinary allocation of profit to the Confederation and the cantons. It is important to emphasise that – paradoxically – the distribution of the CHF 21.1 billion accruing from the gold sales does not actually make them any richer. Up to now, the public sector received the income earned on this capital: a sum of CHF 400 million will also be allocated to them from this source this year. As of the beginning of next year, this income will no longer be distributed. As a result, the Confederation and the cantons will gain in terms of capital, but will lose in terms of transfers of interest income. If they use the proceeds of the gold sales to repay their debts, the reduction in financing charges will correspond approximately to the reduction in the profits paid to them by the SNB. In net terms, there will be few – if any – additional funds available for new expenditures. It is therefore important that decision-makers at all levels maintain a rational approach. The COSA initiative The distribution of the gold sale proceeds will not put an end to the political debate about the distribution of the National Bank's profits.
As our experience has shown, during times of high volatility it is crucial to avoid rash responses to shocks (shocks being any big changes, both positive and negative). This policy suggests that rushed decisions should be avoided. For example, if at the beginning of the year we had lowered the rate at a faster pace, as many wanted us to, we might very well have faced the need to sharply increase it again shortly thereafter. However, there are clearly also shocks such as those in 2014 that require a more decisive response. However, it is important to contend with both the consequences of shocks on inflation as well as the reasons behind them. These reasons are often beyond the Central Bank’s control but this does not mean it is impossible to hit upon suitable state policy measures on the whole. This primarily concerns the dynamics of food inflation and regulated prices and rates. The state policy of developing infrastructure, logistics, market competition (primarily food markets), and the regulation of natural monopolies’ rates can go a long way to reduce price volatility and thus lead to a faster reduction in inflation expectations. This, in turn, will allow the Central Bank to draw the key rate closer to the equilibrium-neutral level faster (I would like to reiterate that, in our estimation, it stands at 2.5-3% in real terms or 6.5-7% in nominal terms).

There is an exciting line-up of events, which includes a panel session that will feature CEOs of Islamic banks and takaful operators, as well as corporate customers who will 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  share their experiences. This will be followed by a knowledge sharing session; industry dialogues including a dialogue with Bank Negara Malaysia; and a business matching session. I invite everyone present today to actively participate in the programme and to explore what Islamic finance has to offer. Thank you. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
Unit costs 2001 NOK 15 14 13 12 11  1988 1994 2001  10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0  Unit costs excluding Unit costs including cash withdrawals at cash withdrawals at the counter the counter  As you probably know, we also investigated the costs related to payment transactions in the largest banks and Norway Post in 1988 and 1994. At constant 2001 NOK, the cost per transaction fell from NOK 14.10 in 1988 to NOK 10.70 in 1994. In 2001, the average cost per transaction was NOK 5.30. Since 1988, the cost of an average transaction, at constant prices, has fallen by a good 60 per cent. Banks have steadily increased the scope of direct pricing so that the degree of cost coverage by means of direct pricing has nearly doubled both from 1988 to 1994 and from 1994 to 2001. In 2001, 70 per cent of costs were covered by means of direct pricing. 4  BIS Review 66/2002  6.

As I have already mentioned, all the key participants in the settlement system have initiated measures to reduce operational risk and improve contingency arrangements. Safety in the Norwegian retail payment system appears to be high. Therefore, I believe that the Norwegian retail payment system largely satisfies the principle of safety and operational reliability. As I have already said, Norway has a very efficient retail payment system. Therefore, the system complies with the core principle concerning efficient and practical payment solutions. Banks have clear rules about the criteria which new participants must satisfy in order to gain access to the common systems. The terms and conditions are publicly disclosed and the Norwegian Competition Authority has had no comments to them. The core principle concerning objective and publicly disclosed criteria for participation is therefore regarded as satisfied. The systems’ organisation largely satisfies the core principle concerning effective,  BIS Review 66/2002  9  accountable and transparent governance. The additional recommendation, i.e. compliance with the core principle concerning final settlement on the day of value, is also satisfied in Norway. Internationally, central banks have also shown increasing interest in efficiency in retail payment systems. Norges Bank’s work with retail payment systems In the spring of 2002, we published a policy document that provides an account of our responsibilities in the payment system area. In this document, we discuss our earlier work in this area and premises and plans for future work. Norges Bank monitors developments in the market and documents this in its Annual Report on Payment Systems.
Financial Stability and Low for Long Speech given by Sir Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor Financial Stability, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Member of the Financial Policy Committee and Member of the Prudential Regulation Committee  Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference, London 14 October 2019  I am grateful to Katie Low, Rand Fakhoury, Richard Harrison, Iren Levina, Ryland Thomas and Matthew Waldron for their help in preparing these remarks. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  Jane Austen’s face appears on the Bank of England’s latest £ note, which entered circulation in September 2017. But the Bank’s association with one of the world’s finest authors goes back much further: as the meticulously kept records of the Bank show, the successful novelist invested much of the proceeds of her writing in Bank of England Annuities. In July 1815, for example, she purchased ‘Navy Five per Cent annuities’ – an undated Bank of England security – with a face value of £ ‘Navy Fives’ were a popular investment during the Napoleonic Wars, paying annual interest, as the name suggests, of 5%. Jane did not purchase the stock at par value – research using the Bank’s archives has established that she paid around £ – making an annual nominal interest rate on her risk free investment of nearly 6%1. Today, a comparable risk free asset – a 30 year gilt – is yielding around 1% nominal.

Over the business cycle, the real interest rate required to sustain output at potential and inflation at target, can fluctuate around the long-run real rate as a result of shorter-term influences on the economy. At any given time, other factors like fiscal policy, uncertainty and global growth prospects may push the real rate required to bring inflation back to target further above or below the long-run real rate. But given the slow moving nature of the underlying drivers of the long-run real rate, one would expect the downward shift in the overall interest rate cycle to persist into the foreseeable future. It is this downward shift in the long-run real rate that has lain, in part, behind the Bank of England’s message that any future increases in rates will be limited and we should not expect to see a return to the levels of policy rates we saw before the crisis. And this is exactly what motivates me today to speak about the implications of this low rate environment for financial stability. Financial stability challenges of low for long: the financial sector  I want to look today at the three main challenges to financial stability that this environment could pose and briefly consider possible policy responses. The first challenge is that a slow or an unwilling adjustment to the lower returns implied by low for long can lead both to greater risk taking and less resilience in the financial sector. 7  Holston et al (2017).
Unemployment and employment rates 9  percent  percent 65.5  8  68 66  7  64  6  62 4.9  5  60  unemployment rate  2017 Q3*  2016  2015  2014  2013  2012  2011  2010  2009  50 2008  0 2007  52 2006  1 2005  54  2004  2  2003  56  2002  3  2001  58  2000  4  employment rate (rhs)  Note: The latest available data for the employment rate refer to 2017 Q2. Source: Eurostat  5  Figure 7. Interbank rates and volume of repo operations 2.5  percent  lei bn. 10  repo volume (rhs)  overnight ROBOR  Nov.17  Oct.17  0 Sep.17  0.0 Aug.17  2  Jul.17  0.5  Jun.17  4  May.17  1.0  Apr.17  6  Mar.17  1.5  Feb.17  8  Jan.17  2.0  3M ROBOR  Source: NBR 6  Figure 8.

Miroslav Singer: Central Bank Governor of the Year for Emerging Europe 2013 Acceptance speech by Mr Miroslav Singer, Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the Central Bank Governor of the Year for Emerging Europe 2013 awards, Washington DC, 12 October 2013. *  *  *  Let me start by thanking you for this award. I see it not so much as personal recognition, but more as recognition of the team of people that make up and define the Czech National Bank that I have the pleasure to represent here. Special thanks go to those I work with directly, among others to my colleagues on the board for their unlimited patience with my generally awful manners and attempts to claim leadership. Whenever I meet a group of investors or analysts, I always start by noting that any issues and questions requiring knowledge and wisdom would be better addressed by our experts, those requiring only wisdom would be better be fielded by my colleagues on the board, and those requiring neither knowledge nor wisdom can be safely left to me. So, let me share some of my knowledge- and wisdom-free observations with you. Ten years ago, when I was working in restructuring, I could never have imagined that I would join the central bank in less than two years and later rise to the top job there. But the offer came, and it was one I truly could not refuse.
Investment in the remaining sectors of the economy have also been, to a large extent, selffinanced (44.2% during the period 2004–08) while financial savings of private enterprises and households increased. The share of bank financing, mainly domestic, represented 50.5% while bond issuance covered 5.3% of financing needs. Domestic medium and long term bank loans, which have been substantially increasing over the past 5 years, have been oriented to investments in productive non-oil sectors, notably energy and water sectors where investments have significantly increased. Anchored to relatively stable and sustainable resources, the development of credit allocation has been notable, with credit to the economy increasing by 15.7% in 2007 and 18.6% in 2008. Growth in the credit to the economy in 2009 remained strong (19.4%, twelve months increase by June 2009) at a time where many emerging economies faced bank credit contractions. Credit to private enterprises and households represents a large share of total allocated credit (54 to 55% over the past 3 years). Medium and long term (investment) credit  2  BIS Review 168/2009  increased by 20.9% in 2008 and 12.9% in the first half of 2009, reflecting favorable domestic bank financing conditions. In this favorable financing context, additional measures have been introduced in the Supplementary Budget Law of July 2009, aimed at further promoting credit to small and medium size enterprises (SMEs), including increasing the maximum government guaranteed credit amount. In the same vein, banks are allowed to extend credit to their affiliates up to 25% of their tier 1 capital.

Foreign direct investment in Algeria is a relatively recent development and has notably followed the achievement of balance of payments viability. For the past six years (2003–2008), total FDIs amounted $ billion 8.7, of which 47.3% from EU countries and  BIS Review 168/2009  3  25.2% from Asian and Middle-Eastern and North African countries. The share of FDIs in the hydrocarbon sector in total FDIs, which reached 55% in 2005, has gradually declined to 42% on average during the recent years. Non-hydrocarbon sectors which attracted FDIs include the banking sector, chemical industry, food industry, electricity sector, water desalination, and construction material. The exchange rate policy is conducted by the Bank of Algeria in the context of a managed float regime of the dinar vis-à-vis the currencies of Algeria’s main trade partners. Since 2004, with a real effective exchange rate (REER) around the equilibrium level as determined by the economy’s fundamentals, exchange rate policy is well in line with external stability, the latter being anchored to a notably strong net external financial position. In operational terms, the Bank of Algeria intervenes in the interbank market to ensure that movements in the nominal exchange rate do not affect the long term equilibrium of the real effective exchange rate of the dinar.
The near-term impact on resident employment should be mitigated by targeted policy support such as enhanced wage support and rental waivers and rebates. Core inflation should continue on its gradual recovery path, with the 2021 forecast unchanged at 0 to 1%. 3/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  While some increase in import prices is expected, this should be confined to certain noncooked food items. But domestic cost pressures will be muted given the lingering slack in the labour market. The CPI-All Items inflation forecast is revised to 1.0 to 2.0% from 0.5 to 1.5%. The revision takes into account higher-than-expected car prices in Q2, due to the sharp rise in COE premiums. CPI-All Items inflation, which rose by 2.2% in April and May, is expected to ease in the second half of this year as base effects fade. The property market has been remarkably resilient in the face of the pandemic and recession last year and continued uncertainty over COVID-19 risks this year. While nominal GDP contracted 8.2% in 2020, the residential property price index rose by 1.6% during the year. As at Q1 2021, the PPI was 5.6% above its pre-pandemic levels, while nominal GDP was about 4% below. MAS, together with MND and URA, remain highly vigilant to the risk of a sustained increase in prices relative to income trends. A prolonged divergence between prices and incomes is unsustainable from a market stability perspective and undesirable from a housing affordability perspective.

It is a natural consequence of the Riksbank being in earnest about its task of ensuring a rate of price and wage increases that is in line with the inflation target in a situation where economic activity in Sweden is become gradually stronger. Here I am prompted to refer to what Knut Wicksell, the well-known political economist, pointed out in his day; it is a matter of looking for the “natural” rate of interest at which the economy can expand without prices and wages rising too quickly. 4  BIS Review 19/2002