samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Both of them understood, among other issues, the importance of capitalizing the Central Bank to strengthen its equity situation, an agreement that was finalized with the special support by Finance Minister Andrés Velasco, whereby the Bank would be capitalized at a pace of half a percentage point of GDP per year over a period of five years. I was able to maintain the best institutional relationship with Congress. During my administration I had the chance to work with four Senate presidents – senators Andrés Zaldívar, Hernán Larraín, Sergio Romero and Eduardo Frei Ruiz Tagle – and with presidents of the Finance Commission Alejandro Foxley, Carlos Ominami and Camilo Escalona. Our relationship was always cordial and with strict observance of the provisions set forth in our Constitutional Organic legislation. Today we must all feel proud of the place that the Central Bank of Chile now occupies in the international scene. Several measurements rank us today among the best evaluated institutions among central banks around the world in various aspects of our day-to-day operation. This is the fruit of a serious and very patient work that requires dedication and effort. I have also the satisfaction of having helped to complete the process of entry of the Central Bank of Chile as a member of the BIS (the Bank for International Settlements), and of having led a campaign to have smaller countries and those admitted in September 2003 participate in its bimonthly meetings on the global economy.

Firms have developed a wide range of more-or-less polite methods for providing us with feedback on the letters we write to them. But letter writing is an art rather than a science, and evaluating objectively how clear we are does not lend itself easily to traditional forms of quantitative methods. Advances in ML,  6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  6  however, are helping. We recently analysed the letters we write to firms on the key risks they face and our supervisory strategy. We quantified a number of qualitative features of these letters, for example, how blunt we are in our messaging, how personal we are in terms of to whom we address the letter, and the overall sentiment expressed by the letter. We then used an ML model called random forests to detect whether, for example, the PRA writes to firms differently than the prior regulator, the FSA. (We do. )10 On the back of that project, we have built an app that now enables supervisors to analyse their written communications. Supervisors can use the app to analyse any of their draft documents before they are sent to firms. IV. CONCLUSION  Advanced analytics, machine learning and AI seem to be everywhere now – from image and voice recognition software to driverless cars and health care.
But should we reach a point where the path of inflation is expected to be self-sustaining, but longterm unemployment remains high, there should be no doubt as to how I would decide regarding our policy stance. Monetary policy cannot “run the economy hot” as insurance against labour market risks – that is, the risk that long-term unemployment becomes structural unemployment. This would be neither desirable in view of our primary mandate, nor efficient given the euro area circumstances. It will be up to other policymakers to tackle this issue – as they must. 1 I would like to thank V. Jarvis and E. Lis for their contributions to this speech. I remain solely responsible for the  opinions contained herein. 2 See Summers, L. (2014), “U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and theZero Lower 8/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  Bound”, Keynote Address at the NABE Policy Conference, 24 February 2014. 3 See, e.g., Ball, L. (2014), “Long-Term Damage from the Great Recession in OECD Countries”, NBER Working  Paper No. 20185. 4 Participation rates have fallen for the under-25s and remain some way below their pre-crisis levels – in part  reflecting higher enrolment rates, as young people exercise their “outside option” of staying in education in the face of less advantageous labour markets. 5 The level expected to prevail in 2015. 6 The picture changes little when hourly wage growth is considered, with annual rates ranging from 1.0% to 1.3%  over the course of the recovery.

This is consistent with a lower degree of matching efficiency post-crisis, with the unemployment level still remaining high despite rising labour demand over the duration of the recovery. Hysteresis effects and monetary policy So what is the role of monetary policy as regards hysteresis effects? Though our primary mandate is price stability and not employment, in conditions of weak aggregate demand there is typically a “divine coincidence” between those two variables, since unemployment rises while inflation falls after adverse shocks hit the economy. So, only by reducing labour market slack can we create the conditions for wage and price pressures to emerge and for inflation to return to our preferred aim within our definition of price stability. This is largely what we have seen in the euro area. Since the adoption of the ECB’s credit easing package in June 2014, around five million jobs have been created in the euro area. Model-based evidence indicates that our policy has contributed meaningfully to this increase: the current recovery has, by and large, been driven by monetary policy, with additional temporary support from the fall in oil prices. So, forceful policy action in the face of risks to our price stability mandate has measurably reduced the risks of hysteresis by creating the financial conditions necessary for growth and employment to flourish. What is more, our actions have also defeated a potentially very nasty form of hysteresis, namely a destabilisation of inflation expectations.
The adoption of info-communication technologies is changing the global financial landscape. New technologies have broadened the scope and utility of financial products. New delivery channels have emerged. Traditional business models are being challenged. The conventional value chain has been disaggregated. Some players are focussing on specific segments of the value chain, such as processing or distribution, seeking to exploit scale economies. Niche and specialised areas have emerged, that open opportunities for a diverse range of innovative players, often start-ups or smaller players nimble enough to exploit opportunities by adopting new technology. It is difficult to predict who will be the winners and losers in this new landscape. Not all the new ideas or business models will eventually succeed. But technology, automation and the internet will likely be central to the success stories. MAS is keeping a close watch on these developments. As new business models and entities emerged, we have issued policy notes setting out our views on the electronic provision of services in the areas of banking, capital markets, risk management and third-party aggregators. In March 2001 we released formal supervisory guidelines on the use of the internet in banking ( the Internet Banking Technology Risk Management Guidelines), after extensive consultation with the industry in Singapore and abroad, and have been contributing actively to the evolving thinking among regulators on these issues. We are introducing a new consolidated Securities and Futures Act to account for global developments influenced by technology.

That new bridge I mentioned a moment ago is up and running. By the end of this month, all lenders should be ready to offer you products linked to SONIA or another non-LIBOR rate. Six or twelve months ago, that wasn’t universally true. Now it is. But don’t just take my word for that. Ask National Express, which took out one of the first SONIA-linked loans.2 Ask Riverside Group, a housing association, which secured a SONIA credit facility during the height of the Covid crisis in early April. 3 Or ask GlaxoSmithKline, which concluded a multi-currency refinanced credit facility linked to both SONIA and its US equivalent SOFR.4  -  Moving away from LIBOR won’t always be easy. But that’s where I come to my third message: which is that you are not in this on your own: for those needing to transition, there is help, and lots of it. The first port of call for most firms should be your own bank, to begin understanding how SONIA can work for your business. But help is also available from many other sources: o  The industry wide Risk Free Rate Working Group has produced educational videos and helpful short guides. These are available on the Bank of England5 and FCA websites and will be sent to everyone attending today’s webinar. o  The Working Group will also be taking forward a programme of engagement with your sector into the end of this year, to help you with transition.
The Guidelines will be released to the industry this month for implementation early next year. This is an important strategic development, both from the public policy and consumer perspectives. Today, medical insurance business accounts for the largest share1 of non-tariff general insurance premiums in the market, with premiums exceeding RM1.3 billion in 2004. The revised Guidelines have retained a significant degree of product flexibility, and enhanced disclosure requirements to promote increased competition while more clearly defined rules governing  1  10,5% of total general gross direct premiums, third (in terms of market share) only to motor and fire business. minimum policy terms and conditions will be put in place to deliver a reasonable level of protection to policyholders. These requirements will also promote more consistent treatment of consumers in the provision of core benefits under medical insurance policies. Where regulatory intervention remains necessary, the Bank will continue to balance the business interests of industry participants with that of consumers, to ensure that the costs of regulation are commensurate with its perceived benefits to consumers. In the long term, however, reliance on regulation and supervisory oversight alone is not a sustainable solution to the market conduct and broader confidence issues that confront the industry. The desired outcome should be one where freedom of action is accompanied by an appropriate degree of moral restraint on the part of the market.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Moving towards a more competitive market Keynote address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the 2005 dialogue session with insurers and takaful operators, Kuala Lumpur, 9 August 2005. *  *  *  The annual Dialogue between Bank Negara Malaysia with insurers and takaful operators is held to discuss issues confronting the insurance and takaful industries, major policy initiatives by Bank Negara Malaysia as well as current economic and financial developments affecting the industry. This year's dialogue is being held on 9 and 10 August and attended by the Chairmen, members of the Board and Chief Executive Officers of insurers, takaful operators and bank holding companies. Themed "Moving Towards a More Competitive Market", the dialogue this year will provide a platform for insurers and takaful operators to discuss strategic issues relating to the challenges of the more competitive and rapidly changing financial landscape. The keynote address delivered by the Governor, Bank Negara Malaysia at the opening of the Dialogue session is attached. The Malaysian economic and financial landscape continues to be dramatically transformed. As this transition process gains momentum, the key issues confronting the insurance and takaful industries today are: defining effective growth strategies in an increasingly borderless world; sustaining confidence in the face of increased demands for greater transparency; responding to the challenges of regulatory and accounting changes; and managing risk in an increasingly complex and volatile environment.
No matter how hard times the European Union is going through and no matter how many challenges must be adequately dealt with, an in-depth analysis shows that political, economic and social interests converging towards the continuation of this great project, namely the strengthening of the European Union, are stronger and more motivated than  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  those stemming from rather circumstantial fears, arising out of the difficulties and vulnerabilities brought along by the global crisis. In order to stick to the virtuous direction that I have referred to – or to return to it –, I personally think that in these difficult times for the European Union, we should not forget to put things into perspective. This means that short-term policies must be harmonised with the long-term vision and policies. Romania’s stance is to consistently support EU-wide economic and institutional reforms. We believe that efforts to strengthen governance in the European Union and the euro area should be made without delay, and they should be understood and supported by all Member States. At the same time, particular attention should also be paid to the small- and medium-sized enterprises. In any country of the European Union, small- and medium-sized enterprises generate most of the turnover and provide jobs for most employees. Romania is no exception to this rule.

Overview of assessment outcomes  Table 1  Assessed member  Publication date of  Number of regulatory changes,  Overall assessment  jurisdiction  assessment  amendments, and clarifications  grade  made by a member jurisdiction during the assessment Japan  October 2012  5  Compliant  Singapore  March 2013  15  Compliant  Switzerland  June 2013  22  Compliant  China  September 2013  90  Compliant  Comparability of bank capital ratios Over time, the consistent national implementation of Basel III standards will help ensure greater “truth in advertising” when comparing bank capital ratios. It is important that, when a bank publishes what purports to be a Basel III capital ratio, investors and counterparties can be reasonably sure that the ratio has been consistently calculated and that, if there are differences, those differences are transparent and some measure of their materiality is available. But there is more to bank capital calculation than just following national regulations. The current framework makes use of internal models – these were introduced in 1996 for market risk, and in 2006 for credit and operational risk. The rationale was clear: to provide incentives for improved risk measurement, and reduce arbitrage via greater risk sensitivity. The Basel I framework, established in 1988, had grown outdated and was increasingly subject to arbitrage. Given its limited risk sensitivity, it provided banks with incentives to accumulate risk, as the build-up of many risks would not be visible in banks’ capital ratios.
BILD: But it is precisely this policy of cheap money that is not working… Draghi: Wrong – our policy is working, but we must be patient; investor confidence has not yet been fully restored. For two years, the economy in the euro area has been growing month by month, banks are lending and unemployment is steadily falling. Meanwhile, euro area countries are now able to buy more German exports again, which, for German companies, is partly making up for the decline in trade with China. But it is a slow process because the crisis was more severe than anything we’d had since the Second World War. BILD: And when will interest rates rise again? Draghi: It’s quite simple: when the economy is growing more strongly again and inflation rises closer to our objective. Low interest rates today will lead to higher rates tomorrow. BILD: Does the ECB’s policy of cheap money not make it far too easy for euro area countries like Italy and France, for example, to shirk necessary but unpopular reforms? Draghi: No. The majority of governments are acting, albeit too slowly for my personal taste. All of them would be well advised to do more. But that is not primarily dependent on the ECB and its policies. Most countries started to implement reforms when the level of interest rates was already very low. Furthermore, reforms of judicial systems, electoral laws or labour laws, for example, don’t have much to do with interest rates.

I am hopeful that the remaining two years of the project would bring even more wonderful results. I also want to take this opportunity to encourage all related stakeholders to continue their supports for young women and women entrepreneurs so that we may ever move closer to the ideal of a prosperous, harmonious, inclusive and equal society. In closing, I would like to wish Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen good luck, good health, and success in every circumstance. Thank you! 3
To date, the global financial market fallout from the Brexit vote has been short-lived, and U.S. financial market conditions remain supportive to economic growth. Nevertheless, I believe that the potential aftershocks pose medium-term downside risks to the global economy, and that these risks need to be monitored. With respect to inflation, I think the outlook has not changed much recently. Headline inflation, as anticipated, has climbed a bit this year as earlier energy price declines have fallen out of the year-over-year inflation calculations. In contrast, core inflation has been broadly stable, with the core PCE deflator rising by 1.6 percent over the past four quarters, moderately below our 2 percent objective. The fact that core inflation has been broadly stable over recent months in the face of the earlier declines in energy and non-energy import prices is notable. It makes me somewhat more confident that overall inflation will return to our 2 percent inflation objective over the medium term as long as the economic growth that I expect actually materializes. If the economy were to grow at the pace I discussed earlier, this would likely translate into sufficient job gains to continue to remove any remaining slack in the labor market – which, by my assessment, is already operating quite close to a level that is consistent with what is achievable on a sustainable basis. This would likely lead to further pressure on labor resources, higher wages and, over time, somewhat higher inflation.

2 All three of these reasons – evidence that U.S. monetary policy is currently only moderately accommodative, the fact that U.S. financial conditions have been influenced by economic and financial market developments abroad, and risk management considerations – argue, at the moment, for caution in raising U.S. short-term interest rates. So, directionally, the movement in investor expectations towards a flatter path for U.S. short-term interest rates seems broadly appropriate. That said, to my eye, market expectations derived from futures prices – which price in about one 25 basis point rate hike through the end of 2017 – appear to be too complacent. If the incoming information validates my view of the outlook, then I believe that U.S. monetary policy will likely need to move at a faster pace than implied by futures prices towards a more neutral posture as the labor market tightens further and U.S. inflation rises. Moreover, market expectations may be putting insufficient weight on the possibility that the economy could outperform our expectations, that financial conditions could ease, or that the risks to growth from Brexit and other international developments could fade away. If such events were to occur, this might necessitate a faster pace of adjustment. For these reasons, I think it is premature to rule out further monetary policy tightening this year. As I said before, it depends on the data, broadly defined, and, as we all know, that is not something one can predict with any accuracy.
The idea that periods of economic stability encourage exuberance in credit markets, thus sowing the seeds of their own destruction, is a key part of Minsky’s theory of recurring financial crises (see e.g. Minsky, 1982). The results here provide some empirical evidence for such a dynamic process. Moreover, to the extent that better policy accounted for the Great Moderation, it provides a second, indirect, channel whereby policy may have contributed to creating the conditions conducive to a subsequent financial bust. But it would clearly be a mistake to conclude that policy should aim to induce fluctuations in the macroeconomy in order to prevent financial market participants becoming too confident about the outlook! The right moral is surely that policy makers need to be most vocal about the risks to  BIS Review 111/2010  7  the outlook when things appear to be going well, and to take appropriate restraining action if needed. 3. The instruments of monetary policy  Dealing with the fallout from the banking crisis has pushed central banks in the affected jurisdictions into uncharted waters. The top panel of Table 1 summarizes the wide variety of measures adopted by some of the major central banks, while Chart 5 illustrates the associated expansion in the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

Vestin, David (2006). “Price-Level versus Inflation Targeting”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(7), 1361–1376. White, William R. (2006). “Is Price Stability Enough?”, Bank for International Settlements Working Paper 205. White, William R. (2009). “Should Monetary Policy ‘Lean or Clean’?”, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalisation and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 34. Williams, John C. (2009). “Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 1–50. Woodford, Michael (2003). Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy. Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ. BIS Review 111/2010  45