samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
[Plans to set up this Forum were announced by the Bank in June 2019 as part of our response to the Future of Finance report.] The purpose of the Forum is to further dialogue between the public and private sectors in order to better understand the use and impact of AI in financial services. The Forum, which is expected to run for one year, will consist of a series of quarterly meetings and workshops structured around each of three topic areas: Data, Model Risk Management, and Governance. In terms of membership, the Forum will draw on the knowledge and experience of 21 leading AI experts from across the financial and technology sectors as well as academia; the Forum also has observers from the Information Commissioner’s Office and the Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation and more may be invited. The goal is to ensure that the Forum’s design reflects a wide variety of views. The full list of members can be found on our website.

Philipp Hildebrand: Swiss monetary policy Summary of a speech by Mr Philipp Hildebrand, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Annual Meeting of the IFZ (Institute for Financial Services Zug), Zug, 1 June 2006. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  Having successfully pursued a strategy of money supply targets for around 25 years, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to adopt a fundamentally new monetary policy approach in 1999. Although it integrated some of the important elements of inflation targeting, it did so less strictly, thus allowing greater flexibility. Money stocks and credits continued to play a vital role in the new concept. Unlike the European Central Bank, the SNB chose not to make the monetary analysis a separate pillar in its concept. An important distinction to inflation targeting is that monetary policy focuses on maintaining price stability in the medium to long term, while inflation targeting is generally oriented towards short-term and, in some cases, variable inflation targets. The SNB's monetary policy uses an inflation forecast as a central indicator and sets its operational goal in the form of a target range for the three-month Libor. A monetary policy that is geared to the medium and long term affords leeway for a certain degree of stabilisation of the real economy.
However, we need to be mindful that this shift in policy most likely will be accompanied by some degree of market turbulence. Moreover, the normalization of U.S. monetary policy could create significant challenges for those emerging market economies (EMEs) that have been the recipients of large capital inflows in recent years. This leads to an important question: what can the Federal Reserve do to address these risks? I will make three observations about the potential international spillovers from normalizing U.S. monetary policy. First, what we may see in terms of market strains and macroeconomic adjustment during this normalization process will not be new. Changes in Fed policy, and especially the tightening of monetary policy, have often created challenges for countries abroad, especially EMEs. Second, these EMEs, as a group, are better equipped today to handle those challenges than in the past. This reflects the fundamental improvements and stronger policy frameworks that many of these countries have put in place over the past 15 years. Third, given the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency, the Federal Reserve has a special responsibility to manage U.S. monetary policy appropriately in order to promote global financial stability. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the FOMC or the Federal Reserve System. 1 The U.S. economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy Since the official end of the Great Recession more than five years ago, the U.S. economy has grown at a disappointing 2.3 percent annualized rate.

While raising interest rates is often portrayed as a difficult task for central bankers, in fact, given the events since the onset of the financial crisis, it would be a development to be truly excited about. Raising interest rates would signal that the U.S. economy is finally getting healthier, and that the Fed is getting closer to achieving its dual mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability. That would be very good news, even if it were to cause a bump or two in financial markets. Global implications of U.S. monetary policy normalization Let me now turn to the implication of U.S. policy normalization for foreign economies. Like other central banks, our monetary policy mandate has a domestic focus. Our monetary policy actions, though, often have global implications that feed back into the U.S. economy and financial markets, and we need to always keep this in mind. For most of us, the market volatility that we saw in the spring and summer of 2013 during the so-called “taper tantrum” still remains fresh in our minds. EME financial markets were hit the hardest, with declines in equity prices, a widening in sovereign debt spreads and a sharp increase in foreign exchange rate volatility. In the U.S., we saw a spike in Treasury yields, with the 10-year rate rising by more than 100 basis points from early May before peaking in early September.
And second, the level of concentration of bank lending to the non-financial private sector in the construction and real estate sectors, which before the global financial crisis was over 25%, has continued to correct and now stands at 9.6%. This has been fundamental in the fall observed, as a proportion of GDP, in real estate sectorrelated lending (understood in the broadest sense, i.e. including loans for house purchase), which has gone from 101% in 2009 to 50% at present. It also partly explains the fact that the allocation of new lending has improved considerably since the international financial crisis. In particular, the empirical evidence available suggests that banks now discriminate more between firms according to their credit quality and productivity. This should help contain any increase in non-performing loans in the future. 21/29  Moreover, the economic recovery, lower borrowing costs and the intense deleveraging undertaken by firms have prompted a widespread decrease in the financial vulnerability of Spanish firms. Indeed, since 2013 the debt service-to-profit ratio has fallen very significantly, from 24% to 11% in 2017 in the 50th percentile when firms are ranked by profitability. However, this has been an uneven reduction and there are still firms that show a certain degree of vulnerability to potential shocks that reduce their capacity to generate income or raise the interest rates at which they borrow funds. Specifically, in the first three deciles, the average of this ratio is around 20%, indicative of a certain degree of fragility.

Among these fees, the relative increase in those linked to the marketing of products such as investment funds stands out, in a setting in which demand for these products has risen, boosted by households’ search for more profitable investments, given the low level of return on deposits. This has meant that gross income, which includes fees and net interest income, has declined by less than the net interest margin. Likewise, as I indicated earlier, banks have tended to increase the share of business in their portfolios that provides higher net interest income (such as consumer lending), albeit at the expense of increasing the risk profile of their credit portfolios. Third, banks have also made great efforts to cut their operating expenses through branch closures and staff reductions. Specifically, the number of branches has decreased by more than 40% (by some 20,000), while staffing levels have been cut by more than 30% (some 90,000 fewer employees). 16/29  Nevertheless, to date these cuts in expenses have been more moderate than the decline in gross income, as reflected in a constant increase, up to 2017, in the ratio between the two (the efficiency ratio), which reveals the deterioration in efficiency in this period. Overall, in business in Spain there has been a significant increase (deterioration) in the efficiency ratio at the individual level, of around 9 pp since 2014, which took it to 56.2% in June 2019. In terms of assets, operating expenses in 2018 were similar to their pre-crisis levels.
To ease and empower the user in manipulating and utilizing these new data we launched a new visualization tool developed in Power-BI. The lesson learned is also that to keep up with the changes and react promptly, we must continue encouraging the digital transformation of our organizations, incorporating advanced analytical techniques, and providing more timely and granular information that considers heterogeneity to complement conventional statistics. As the access to new large-volume databases and the use of granular data almost always poses the challenge of confidentiality, the Central Bank of Chile has sought to implement best practices and safeguards to exploit such information. With this objective, we established a Data Governance Agenda, led by a Strategic Committee that reports directly to the Board and whose executive management is located in the Statistics Division. Likewise, we are working on our Big Data Strategic Project, which contemplates a centralized data repository that all user areas can access. 2  Climate and distributional challenges Central banks actively participate in different initiatives to respond to the demands derived from climate change. In April 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stressed the critical role of climate data in effectively aligning the financial sector with science-based decarbonization and adaptation goals.

Central Banks have found that venturing into the digital transformation with an increasing use of big data, a process that was accelerated because of the sanitary crisis, helps ease somewhat these trade-offs. Many central banks have broadened the analysis using less traditional sources derived from the so-called "open" data available on the Internet. They started to apply big data techniques, such as web scraping, machine learning or text analysis, for collecting and transforming data on prices, job vacancies or retail sales, among others. As a result, it became possible to release new indicators with higher frequency and timeliness. This has contributed to a better understanding of economic phenomena, providing up to date empirical support to the implementation of monetary policy and financial stability mandates. 1  New sources of information In our case, at the Central Bank of Chile we have embarked in several efforts to expand and improve the data available. For the first time, starting in June, we released regional gross domestic product and household consumption on a quarterly basis, with a lag of a few months. This advance enhances data robustness and provides valuable information for economic analysis and public policy decisions by increasing the frequency and opportunity with which we can measure regional economic conditions, which until recently was available only annually.
Malaysia is honoured to host the Islamic Financial Services Board and is committed to the development of a sound. Islamic financial services industry. Ladies and Gentlemen: Islamic banking and finance is ascending to greater prominence in the global financial system and has fast extended beyond the traditional predominantly Muslim economies to major industrial economies. This growing significance is a manifestation of the viability of Islamic banking as a financial intermediation channel that supports economic growth and development of nations. While it was initially developed to fulfill the needs of the Muslims, Islamic banking and finance has now gained universal acceptance. The appreciation of its promising potential has prompted interest amongst conventional financial institutions to venture into this fast expanding market. In essence, Islamic banking and finance can expect to evolve into an increasingly important component of the global financial system. At the heart of this expansion, emerged the need for the development of the regulatory dimension to explicitly address the unique features of Islamic banking and finance. At present, Islamic financial institutions have, to a large extent, been governed by the conventional regulatory framework, reinforced by the Shari'ah framework and Islamic accounting standards. However, Islamic finance is distinct from conventional financial activities in terms of its underlying philosophy on the prohibition of interest, which in turn shapes the nature of its financial transactions, and its risk attributes. A separate regulatory framework therefore needs to be developed in view of the unique risks in Islamic financial transactions to provide for their effective assessment and management.

Recession or instability at home is often quickly exported. Equally important, growth and stability abroad makes all our jobs easier. This means that there are externalities in the work we do, so that more effective fulfillment of our domestic mandates helps to bring us to a better place collectively. Ensuring global growth and stability is and will remain our joint and common endeavor. This is what Terry Checki has worked for over his distinguished career. We have been very fortunate for his service and must carry the mantle forward. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
I am sure you are familiar with the major global risk areas: China-US trade conflict, Brexit, tightening of global financial conditions and moderation in growth of the Mainland Chinese economy. They are likely to remain relevant in the coming year. As a highly open economy, Hong Kong is sensitive to these external risks. 4. If the past offered any lesson, it is that we must build a robust regulatory framework with very strong buffers, so that whenever these shocks strike, we will be able to come through smoothly. The key is to keep your house in order and get ready for the shocks. Let me highlight three areas that Hong Kong has prepared well for the potential challenges. 5. First is the strong confidence in our monetary system, which is the Linked Exchange Rate System. Second is the strong buffer in the banking system: our banks’ capital ratio of 15.8% and liquidity ratio of 158% are well above the international standards. Third is the strong buffer provided by the high level of fiscal reserves, amounting to 40% of GDP, which should rank among the highest in the world. 6. We do spend a lot of our time monitoring risks and studying ways to manage them. But on the other hand, we are also acutely aware of the opportunities provided by the opening-up of Mainland China’s financial sector, and we have been making efforts to enhance our role as a bridge between Mainland China and the international markets.

The inclusion of RMB assets into global indices has driven up the demand for these assets and a good part of the investment is done through Hong Kong. At the same time, we are also working closely with the Mainland to expand and enhance these Connect schemes, including expanding the product scope to cover derivative products in the case of Bond Connect and ETF in the case of Stock Connects. 9. Talking about China opportunities, one key development is the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Bay Area (the Greater Bay Area, or GBA). The GBA combines Mainland China’s wealthiest and economically most advanced cities along the Pearl River Delta into a metropolitan cluster. It covers a population of nearly 70 million and generates GDP of about $ trillion, providing a unique stage for financial institutions to launch and expand their business. Besides, the depth of Hong Kong’s financial markets could help enterprises in the GBA to access global capital. At the initial phase, we are studying ways to facilitate capital flows within the GBA at the individual level, such as cross-border use of mobile payment and mutual access of wealth management products by residents in Hong Kong and in the Mainland part of the GBA. 10. Apart from being a major platform for capturing China opportunities, the HKMA is actively moving towards the new era of Smart Banking. We launched the Faster Payment System (FPS) last September – a round-the-clock instant payment platform that achieves full connectivity between banks and stored value facilities.
As I have said this is an international effort, with different jurisdictions making the transition at different times and some have already gone live. The ECB is due to transition their system this November. In the UK from next spring CHAPS users will be able to send payments containing richer data[3], such as a purpose code which describes the type of payment being made, a Legal Entity Identifier for the financial institutions in the payment chain and structured remittance data relevant to the both the debtor and creditor in any particular payment. I will flag just three of the potential benefits: improved “straight through processing” with less need for manual intervention in our payments systems; a more sophisticated approach to compliance and regulatory requirements; and the promise of wider systemic resilience through increased interoperability between systems. Given the focus on real-time in today’s session let me give one example of how the ISO 20022 message standard could transform how we approach fraud and financial crime. The harm to UK consumers and businesses and to the UK financial sector of just one type of fraud - Authorised Push Payment (APP) scams – is very considerable – losses due to APP scams were £ in 2021[4]. The introduction of a purpose code to the relevant payments message should make it possible to identify these frauds much faster[5]. Many cross-border payments lag domestic payments in terms of cost, speed, access and transparency so the benefits from enhancing payments data are clear.

Who better to deliver this year’s MAS Lecture than the chief architect and prime mover behind that far-sighted policy: Dr Zhou Xiaochuan Dr Zhou needs little introduction. We secured his agreement to deliver the MAS Lecture just three weeks ago. The letters of invitation went out two weeks. The fact that more than 500 of you are gathered here at short notice is testament to Dr Zhou’s reputation as a visionary leader who shaped China’s financial reform agenda. Still, it would be remiss of me if I did not briefly highlight the key milestones in Dr Zhou’s distinguished career in public service spanning more than 30 years. He held leadership roles in the Bank of China and the China Construction Bank. He served as Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). And of course – what he is most well known for – he served as Governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) from 2002 to 2018, the longest-serving Governor of 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  the PBoC. Dr Zhou became one of the most respected central bankers on the international circuit. In February this year, Dr Zhou was awarded the Lifetime Central Banking Award by London-based publication Central Banking, a most fitting recognition of his contributions to the Chinese economy and financial sector. From a bilateral perspective, during Dr Zhou’s tenure, the PBoC and MAS forged close ties and deepened financial and regulatory cooperation.
Yet the concept of debt sustainability is not easy to operationalise. Debt sustainability analysis tools provide a way to organise our thinking on these issues and we have some experience using them - for example, within the International Monetary Fund programmes framework. But their practical application for informing policy decisions remains rather complex. In this sense, it is worth remembering that any framework aimed at providing the necessary adjustment to cyclical developments must rely on the use of unobservable variables. In the case of the debt sustainability analysis, it will be necessary to forecast medium-term nominal GDP growth, which will face problems similar to the measurement of the structural deficit. 8  Beetsma, R., X. Debrun, X. Fang, Y. Kim, V. Lledó, S. Mbaye, and X. Zhang. (2019). Independent fiscal councils: Recent trends and performance. European Journal of Political Economy, 57, 53-69. 7  Therefore, it seems that we may be shifting complexity away from the rule framework and moving it towards the analysis of debt sustainability. The reform proposal also addresses the possibility of redirecting additional public funds towards the climate and digital targets through the use of an extended period of adjustment. I believe this approach is better than the use of the so-called “golden rules” to finance green investment, which allow governments to exclude some types of expenditure from the calculation of the fiscal targets for several reasons.

The EU Commission's orientations, and the lively debate among academics and other policymakers, offer new and ambitious proposals to move forward, including, most importantly, broadening the scope to progress further with the EMU. I believe this debate will lead to a better functioning economic governance framework for the EU. To quote Warwick's motto: mens agitat molem (minds move matter). 9