samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Looking ahead, I expect the New York economy to continue to strengthen along with the national economy over the next few years. The Fed’s Policy Response This brings me to the Fed’s policy response. In its December 2020 statement, the FOMC said it would continue asset purchases at the current pace until it sees substantial further progress toward our maximum employment and price stability goals.3 Given what I have said, I think it’s clear that we have made substantial further progress on achieving our inflation goal. There has also been very good progress toward maximum employment. Assuming the economy continues to improve as I anticipate, a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted. It is important to remember that even after the asset purchases end, the stance of monetary policy will continue to support a strong and full economic recovery and sustained attainment of 2 percent average inflation. In particular, the FOMC has indicated that it will continue to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at its current level until the economy reaches conditions consistent with its assessments of maximum employment, and inflation has reached 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. There is still a long way to go before reaching maximum employment, and over time it should become clearer whether we have reached 2 percent inflation on a sustained basis. Conclusion I began by saying that it’s nearly impossible to predict the future.

These losses are considerably steeper than after most major hurricanes that have hit the United States. However, they are not as devastating as Katrina’s impact on the New Orleans economy more than a decade ago, which was and remains unprecedented. Nonetheless, the labor market, at least in Puerto Rico, appears to be stabilizing as jobs in sectors that were most affected—such as leisure and hospitality—have started to come back. And, as repair and rebuilding efforts get underway in both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, jobs are being created in sectors such as construction. These job gains are expected to continue for some time to come. Looking ahead Puerto Rico now must not only complete the recovery from the hurricane, but also do what is necessary to get on a sustainable economic and fiscal path. Given the Island’s high debt, unfunded pension obligations, declining population, and now the hurricane, the outlook may seem grim. But there are good reasons not to despair. As I have noted previously, New York City went through a similar crisis during the 1970s: its population was declining, the economy was in a fiveyear recession, and the city had literally run out of money to pay its employees and could not borrow in the debt markets. However, leaders had the courage to confront these problems head on, and they adopted a series of reforms, including the establishment of a fiscal oversight board and a more transparent budgeting process.
In France, the development of macroprudential policy led to the creation, under the 2013 Banking Law, of the High Council for Financial stability (HCSF), chaired by the Minister for Finance, and on which the Banque de France plays an active role. This High Council meets once a quarter with a total of eight members, three of whom are independent economists. It identifies any risks of potential financial “bubbles", and has the power, where necessary, to implement a series of macroprudential measures, including a countercyclical capital buffer – currently set at 0% – or tighter lending standards. Ten years after the start of the crisis, eight years after London and Pittsburgh, it’s time now to stand back and take stock. Our achievement today is that the objective has largely been met.10 The first assessments show that these reforms have had a significantly positive impact on the soundness of banks, both in terms of their ability to withstand liquidity shocks and their solvency, with the core capital ratio (Common Equity Tier 1 or CET1) of the main banks operating at international level rising by 5 percentage points since 2011, from 7.4% at end-2011 to 12.3% at end-2016.11 As for the four largest French banks, their own funds have more than doubled since the crisis: in 2008 they amounted to EUR 132 billion; in 2016 that figure reached EUR 296 billion. Put another way, the majority of French banks have increased their capital levels by more in the past eight years than in the previous century.

18 The Bank plans to use its Agency network to run a survey of hurdle rates later this year. Conclusion What would Alastair have made of the issues I have raised today? He knew well the risks that property markets can pose to stability. I hope he would be reassured by the creation in the UK of the Financial Policy Committee within the Bank of England which is now specifically charged with managing these systemic risks. The Committee is monitoring property markets closely. It has already taken action and would not hesitate to do so again if it is needed to protect financial stability. Alastair was also a champion of investor activism. I think investors have a role to play in restoring the economic profitability of banks, both by encouraging business model restructuring and monitoring risks and perhaps by lowering their expectations a little as well. But investors are only one part of the story. Banks need to work with the authorities to implement fully the reforms that have been agreed to boost their resilience. And banks’ management need to maintain their restructuring momentum. The business model for banks in the UK may look very different in the future than it did before the crisis. I think it is clear that, in the new framework, it is possible for banks both to lend to the real economy and to make adequate returns. Thank you. References Bahaj, S, Foulis, A and Pinter, G “The Residential Collateral Channel”, by, Bank of England Staff Working Paper, forthcoming.
To sum up, despite the fact that nearly half of the CPI is composed of energy, food, and administered goods prices, it is evident that monetary policy is still capable of keeping the main inflation trend under control via other items. As stated also in the last two years’ monetary policy statements, the inflation target would be changed only if sharp and long-term deviations from the target occur due to factors beyond the control of the monetary policy such that the medium-term targets no longer make sense. Within this framework, while considering the possibility that inflation might be exceeding the target for a while in the short run, the Central Bank maintains the 4 percent inflation target hinging on the evaluation that the general trend of inflation is downwards. The forecasts presented in the Inflation Reports will continue to refer to two-year periods. In phases when inflation is above the target, the forecasts presented in the Inflation Report become more important. The forecasts inform the public about the path that inflation will follow while moving towards the medium term target. In other words, the reference value established for economic units is the inflation forecast in the short-run and the inflation target in the long-run. Another message that inflation forecasts contain is the monetary policy stance.

Investors are more likely to invest and trade on an exchange if they are confident that they can do so without being defrauded or without other investors having an unfair advantage. Exchanges that operate fair, efficient and transparent markets, where rules are enforced in an impartial way, will have a competitive advantage. MAS and SGX share a strong commitment to maintaining high standards of corporate governance. We take a collaborative approach in working together to continually keep abreast of best practices. No single model has gained universal acceptance, and no model is good for all time. We will continue to work closely together to further enhance the governance and regulatory arrangements relating to SGX where appropriate. Conclusion East Asian economies have seen robust growth in 2003. The ADB expects this momentum to continue in 2004.1 Capital has started to flow back into the region and stock markets have rebounded. Net capital inflows into emerging market portfolio equity investment reached a high of $ in 2003, almost double that seen before the internet bust in early 2000.2 This positive economic outlook, coupled with growing intra-regional trade and investment, augurs well for the region. Trade and investment links should however, be complemented by greater financial market cooperation and integration. The governments’ resolve to forge deeper collaboration will give an added boost to the region’s progress. The exchanges should however, also contemplate possible collaborative initiatives to create new value. Notwithstanding the competitive forces, regional exchanges have much to gain by working together. This is not a zero-sum game.
The purpose was twofold: first, to level the playing field for domestic credit institutions with respect to their access to facilities at the Central Bank, and, second, to adjust the operating environment of domestic credit institutions to the environment prevailing in the European Economic Area. These changes have been modelled on the instruments designed for the prospective European Central Bank, which will be established on July 1 and formally commence operations on January 1, 1999. Under the auspices of the European Monetary Institute, the precursor to the European Central Bank, work has proceeded on designing the monetary instruments of the bank. The Central Bank has followed this work to the extent possible. Some issues, such as concerning reserve requirements, will not be resolved until after the European Central Bank has been established. The Central Bank may therefore adjust its rules when the situation in Europe becomes clearer. The first step in changing the Central Bank’s instruments was taken on March 1 and covered the following. The liquidity requirement of deposit banks was abolished. Weekly auctions of 14-day repurchase agreements replaced the tap-sale of these agreements. All government guaranteed securities and the Central Bank’s certificates of deposit qualify as collateral for repurchase agreements rather than only Treasury bills and certificates of deposit. The Central Bank will auction 14-day certificates of deposit when it feels the need to withdraw liquidity. The direct sale of 45-day certificates of deposit will cease, but 90-day certificates will continue to be sold.

Yields on both indexed and non-indexed bonds have continued to fall this year, with the yield on government guaranteed indexed bonds now well below 5 percent which some had regarded as the floor. Although money and bond market yields declined in 1997 the lending rates of commercial and saving banks changed little. These rates have now begun to come down. Profitability of deposit institutions The profitability of banks improved during 1997. Current information on profits of the commercial banks shows a substantial increase compared with the preceding year. Their combined return on equity was 9.2% in 1997, compared with 8.2% in 1996 and 5% in the year before that. Nonetheless, profitability varied widely among them, and the different conditions that they faced complicate comparisons. Landsbanki (the National Bank) and Búnaðarbanki (the Agricultural Bank), for example, incurred large irregular expenses related to the final settlement of their pension obligations, which cannot be expected to recur in future. Provisions to reserves for loan losses have fallen sharply among all the banks. At the same time, the six largest savings banks recorded some decline in profitability compared with the previous year, and their return BIS Review 42/1998  -7-  on equity was 8.5%. I should underline, however, that profitability varied widely among individual savings banks.
The choice of equity allocation determines to a large extent the fund’s return and risk, and is therefore one of the most important decisions concerning fund management. Almost 40 per cent is invested in bonds, including government and corporate bonds, and a small portion is invested in real estate. 26 Government bonds in particular were long regarded as safe investments. This was also the thinking behind Statens Reservefond (Government Reserve Fund), established in 1904 to provide for investment in “first-class” foreign securities, primarily French, German and UK government bonds. High inflation in the wake of World War I reduced the real value of the fund by half, and the fund was discontinued in 1925. 27 Some would argue that investment in government bonds provides “risk-free returns”. In the context of current developments in the euro area, it might be more accurate to refer to this form of investment as “return-free risk”, to quote Yngve Slyngstad, the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. A third form of investment is the oil fund’s direct purchases of real estate, so far in London and Paris. We buy large stakes – usually between 25 and 75 per cent – in large real estate projects. 28 As a long-term investor, we hope to reap returns in this market as well. A large investor with a long-term perspective When we buy interests in a company both ethical and economic considerations come into play. There are companies in which we do not invest.

It will be important to develop comparable leverage measures in line with the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) to the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO).6 This will facilitate consistent monitoring and assessment of the build-up of risks in the investment fund sector. As the global crisis has shown, we cannot afford to be complacent and must remain vigilant to possible new risks that might emerge in the financial system. So we need to better understand the macroprudential dimension of risk in the investment fund sector. And we need to further enhance the sector’s resilience to system-wide shocks. Possible macroprudential and other policy responses – what needs to be done? Let me now set out a few regulatory actions which could contribute to mitigating risks arising from interconnectedness, liquidity and leverage in the investment fund sector. Let me start with interconnectedness and the links to banks in particular. The global financial crisis showed that banks sometimes have incentives to step in to support unconsolidated entities such as special purpose vehicles or investment funds with which they have a business relationship. Explicit contractual obligations are already captured by a number of post-crisis 4/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  reforms, in particular by revisions to the securitisation framework and by enhancements to consolidation rules for off-balance sheet entities.7 But the risk that a bank provides financial support to an unconsolidated entity that is facing stress, over and above any contractual obligations has not yet been addressed.
During 2001, growth was mainly in sectors with a relatively low growth in productivity, such as the private services sector and public authorities. At the same time, absence due to illness has increased considerably, which may also have contributed to a poor growth in productivity and rising costs for both companies and the public sector. BIS Review 25/2002  7  The rate of wage increase has risen, particularly within the services sectors, which appears to have contributed to pushing up the rate of price increase in the Swedish economy. This is an important reason why the Riksbank raised its repo rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.0 per cent, in connection with the publication of the Inflation Report just over one month ago. We also signalled on that occasion that if the trends regarding economic activity and inflation propensity in the Swedish economy remained the same, there may be cause for further increases in the interest rate. Growth in demand now appears to be on the right path both in Sweden and abroad. Swedish fiscal policy is currently conducted in a very expansionary direction, which made it natural for the Riksbank to wish to ease up on the accelerator to ensure the inflation target is achieved. Some people might think that this target means that the Riksbank is forced to give less priority to employment and production in a situation where a recovery is still in its infancy.

Percentage points 30  28  30 21 21  20 10  18  20 5  10 2  2  0  0  0  0 -3  -10  -3  -10 -14  -20  -17  -20  -20 -26  -30 S  DK FIN UK IRL D  F  B  Note. SV=Sweden, DK=Denmark, FIN=Finland, UK=United Kingdom, IRL=Ireland, D=Germany, F=France, B=Belgium, A=Austria, L=Luxembourg, NL=Netherlands, I=Italy, E=Spain, EL=Greece, P=Portugal. A  L  NL  I  E  EL  -30  P  Source: Eurostat. The fact that there exist price differences between countries is partly due to structural factors. One important factor is the income level (richer countries usually have higher prices). Taxes, wages, population density and changes in the exchange rate are also of considerable significance. Sweden has, for instance, higher VAT and unit labour costs, i.e. payroll expense including social security contributions adjusted for productivity, than the EU average. Sweden’s geographical situation and the fact that we are a sparsely-populated country mean that we are also affected by higher transport costs, lower economies of scale and thereby have higher prices. It is estimated that approximately one half of the Swedish price level difference from the EU average 5 can be explained by structural factors. The other half is attributed to a lack of competition. Calculated in krona, this means that a family with two children pays approximately SEK 30,000 more a year for their purchases than they would otherwise.
Those with long memories know we have achieved low inflation and steady growth before - though never for so long - only to see them slip away. They ask: what’s to prevent that happening again? A lot has changed in the past fifteen years. We now have an approach to setting interest rates which provides much better incentives for policy makers to take the right decisions. This - and the strong track record built up over the past decade - has stabilised expectations, with the result that it takes more to throw inflation off course. This is crucial insurance against the risks of a more turbulent decade ahead. A trickier issue - and one on which I want to spend some time tonight - is the vexed question of information. Statisticians get an even worse press than economists. But they are indispensable. Just as well run businesses need good management information, so successful monetary policy depends on having good information about the economy. The statistical fog surrounding the true state of the economy has proved a particularly potent breeding ground for policy errors in the past. Are we yet in sight of a clearer view? The policy framework But let me start first with the policy framework: what grounds are there for being confident that it provides the right incentives for policy makers to take good decisions?

Rachel Lomax: Stability and statistics Speech by Ms Rachel Lomax, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, to the North Wales Business Club, Llandudno, Wales, 23 November 2004. I would like to thank Simon Hayes and Jens Larsen for research support and Spencer Dale, Mark Cornelius and colleagues at the Bank of England for helpful comments. *  *  *  “The first time we saw the MPC we were given the folder of all the statistics they had which was something like a foot high. We found it hard to believe that they all read that stuff but they claimed they did.Statistics seem to be their life blood…” Chairman, House of Lords, Select Committee on Economic Affairs, HL Paper 176 - II. The past decade has been a time of unparalleled stability for the UK economy. It is more than twelve years since the United Kingdom experienced a single quarter of negative GDP growth. Consumer spending, investment and output have all shown a degree of stability over the past ten years which is unmatched in any decade since the war - indeed in the twentieth century. Inflation has been impressively stable too, as well as lower on average than at any time since the war. And, to complete the story, employment has grown steadily, and unemployment has fallen to a 30 year low. A stable economy has created a much better climate for business. So no wonder soaring oil prices make people nervous.
If the interest rate differential against other currencies is small, the exchange rate will remain stable. In practice, this is not always the case. On the contrary, studies indicate that short-term movements in the exchange rate are best described by the random walk process. This means that the best projection of the krone exchange rate tomorrow is that it will be the same as today. In the somewhat longer term, we still believe that monetary policy and the interest rate differential against other countries are important for developments in the exchange rate. But  1  See box "Developments in the krone exchange rate", Inflation Report 2/05. BIS Review 97/2007  5  in the short run the krone fluctuates to some extent and not necessarily in line with the interest rate differential. The chart shows the effective exchange rate for Norway and some other countries. Compared with the currencies of Switzerland, the UK and Sweden, the Norwegian krone does not fluctuate to any particular extent. Compared with other commodity-exporting countries such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand the movements in the krone exchange rate have been modest. If such movements are felt to be uncomfortable, hedging instruments can be used. The markets for the purchase and sale of currency for future delivery – the forward and options markets – have grown in recent years. A deeper market has reduced trading costs and it is easier to find counterparties. This has improved companies' possibilities for hedging against exchange rate risk.

This has not altered the liquidity available in the local money market, which has remained stable, aside from some transitory turbulence in early October that was addressed by the Central Bank through the implementation of new modalities in the provision of liquidity. Secondly, the meltdown of world output and trade is increasing credit risk globally. In turn, firms and households with a better financial situation tend naturally to postpone their spending and borrowing decisions, awaiting the normalization of the financial environment, thus shrinking the demand for credit. All of this results in increased average financing cost and tougher lending standards for those agents actually engaging in borrowing operations. We can see that the various risk and volatility indicators are substantially above their preSeptember figures (figure 2). As we wrote in our latest Monetary Policy Report, 1 the extra financial burden for the clients of Chilean banks has tended to reflect precisely the higher levels of global uncertainty and their impact on the Chilean economy. I must stress that these phenomena are occurring today in every economy in the world, sometimes with catastrophic implications on their levels of output and the solvency of their financial institutions. Because we prepared as a country for a long while to confront severe deteriorations of the international economic environment, Chile and our financial market have suffered limited effects, with no sudden stops but, on the contrary, with increases in credit supply and without a generalized process of insolvency.