4. https://www.jstor.org/stable/289972 Gennaioli, N and Shleifer, A (2018), ‘A crisis of beliefs: investor psychology and financial fragility’, Princeton University Press Graeber (2011), Debt: the first 5,000 years, Melville House Hudson (2018), ‘… and forgive them their debts: lending, foreclosure and redemption from Bronze Age finance to the Jubilee year’, ISLET-Verlag Dresden Kahneman, D and Tversky, A, (1973), ‘On the Psychology of Prediction’, Psychological Review, 80(4) Keynes, J M (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Lovell, M (1986), ‘Tests of the rational expectations hypothesis’, American Economic Review, Vol. 76, No. 1. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1804130 MacGregor, N (2010), A history of the world in 100 objects, Allen Lane Malmendier, U and Nagel, S (2015), ‘Learning from Inflation Experiences’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 131, Issue 1. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjv037 Mian, A and Sufi, A (2014), House of Deb:, How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent it from Happening Again, University of Chicago Press Shiller, R (2000), Irrational Exuberance, Princeton University Press  15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  15  Shiller, R, (2007), ‘Understanding recent trends in house prices and home ownership’, Proceedings of the Economic Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2007/PDF/Shiller_0415.pdf University of Chicago (1995), ‘Economics dynasty continues: Robert Lucas wins Nobel Prize’, The University of Chicago magazine, December 1995. https://magazine.uchicago.edu/9512/9512Journal.html Williams, A, (1987), ‘The formation of price forecasts in experimental markets’, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 19, No.

I might equally have talked about cyber risk or the impact of a credit correction in China. It is of course the job of policymakers like me to assess and address potential vulnerabilities like these, and we report on them regularly. But to me the bigger point is that at some point, in some way a correction will be triggered when the future, for whatever reason, does not match up to expectations of those who have lent and borrowed and bought assets. Our fundamental task is to ensure that when that happens, the correction can be absorbed and does not lead to a ‘great crisis’, as it did 10 years ago, with all the social and economic loss that entails. 13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  13  References Aikman, D, Nelson, B, and Tanaka, M (2015), ‘Reputation, risk-taking, and macroprudential policy’, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.06.014 Aliber, R and Kindleberger, C (2005), ‘Manias, Panics, and Crashes’, Wiley Bank of England (2014), Financial Stability Report June 2014 Bank of England (2016), The Financial Policy Committee’s approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer: a policy statement Bank of England (2017), Financial Stability Report November 2017 Bank of England (2019), Stress testing the UK banking system: key elements of the 2019 annual cyclical scenario Bernanke, B (1983), ‘Nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in the propagation of the Great Depression’, American Economic Review, Vol. 73, No.