samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
15  In addition, the Federal Reserve Board has been testing a facility through which it offers term deposits to credentialed depository institutions. Term Deposit Facility (TDF) transactions could be used to temporarily immobilize reserve balances. An eight-week series of tests this summer explored how demand for term deposits responds to variations in the maximum individual award limits and rates. Higher offered rates relative to IOER attracted greater use, both in the number of participants and the total dollar volumes. The next round of TDF testing, which gets underway in October, will incorporate an early-withdrawal feature, as well as gradual increases in the maximum individual award amount and rate. For details see http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140904a.htm. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Conclusion In conclusion, during normalization the FOMC will continue to communicate the stance of policy through a target for the fed funds rate, and will move the fed funds rate into the target range primarily by adjusting the IOER rate. ON RRPs and other supplementary tools will be used as needed to control the fed funds rate. The Committee will continue to test features of the ON RRPs to determine how a facility might best be structured to supplement IOER in the control of the funds rate while limiting the potential for unintended effects in financial markets. Given the range of available tools, I am confident in our ability to raise short-term interest rates from the zero lower bound when the time to do so arrives.

One benefit is that, in limiting the overall take-up but not individual take-up, an aggregate cap should produce a more efficient allocation of usage among counterparties than would a system of individual caps. Further, an aggregate cap should better balance efficient control of money market rates under normal conditions with the risk of a destabilizing surge in use of the facility in times of stress. The reduced risk of a surge in use in a system with an aggregate cap comes from the fact that take-up across counterparties is not perfectly correlated. As a result, an aggregate cap that binds at some frequency can be set below the sum of individual caps that would bind for at least one of the counterparties at the same frequency. The aggregate cap also raises the individual bargaining power of counterparties relative to a system of lower individual caps, since in normal times counterparties can be relatively certain that larger bids at the ON RRP facility will be filled. However, the possibility that the aggregate cap could bind even in only limited circumstances may undermine this effect on bargaining power. The Federal Reserve has been closely analyzing the results of the ON RRP operations conducted under these new testing parameters in order to further its understanding of how an ON RRP facility should be structured during the normalization process. As many market participants anticipated the aggregate cap did bind on quarter end.
We closed the last ones almost 20 years ago. Client relationships will remain the preserve of private players, to which central banks will provide the central bank money. There are also fears that CBDC accounts will “drain” commercial deposits and dry up bank liquidity. No: as I see it, they will offer no greater advantage in terms of remuneration, and there will have to be a limited amount that can be held in them. In addition, the ECB has shown that it is more than capable of safeguarding bank liquidity… If the CBDC is going to replace any liquid financial assets, then it is more likely to be banknotes in the long run and crypto-assets. In short, the scenario of a CBDC causing massive bank disintermediation is more a finance-fiction fantasy than a serious analysis. The “interbank” or “wholesale” CBDC would enable the efficient and secure settlement of transactions. We, as Banque de France, have already completed five experiments and will carry out four more by the end of this year, with private and public actors alike. We will publish through the summer a comprehensive stocktaking. Let me already stress three major lessons we learnt: -  Two experiments – one that was carried out with the EIB and SG Forgei and another that was carried out with Euroclear/Agence France Trésor,ii have proved that tokenised central bank money helps settling financial securities more efficiently and rapidly (instantaneously, compared with D+2 currently). It generates savings in liquidity and capital, which in turn lowers costs.

New technologies could allow operations all year round and 24/7, and reduce the number of intermediaries involved. -  A CBDC can also facilitate cross-border payments thanks to the use of distributed ledger technology and the interoperability of CBDC systems in different jurisdictions. We have this year joined forces with the SNB, the BIS innovation hub and a private sector consortium led by Accenture, within a project named JURAiii, which would allow the use of Swiss franc and euro CBDCs on a DLT platform. We are also working with the Monetary Authority of Singapore to test cross-currency payments with CBDCs. -  Existing market infrastructures (like T2S) and players, and future systems based on distributed ledger technology will need to be interoperable. Decentralised finance is still not mature enough to handle large volumes of transactions, and therefore will not replace conventional systems from one day to another: centralised and decentralised systems will have to coexist securely and efficiently. This is the purpose of two experiments that we recently completed respectively with SEBA Bank,iv for the settlement of listed securities, and with Euroclear/Agence France Trésor on a collateral operation involving a French OAT. 3/ When: getting ready to introduce a CBDC rapidly if necessary We therefore need to prepare ourselves, without hesitation, to introduce a CBDC rapidly if necessary:  Next July, the Governing Council could give the green light to launch an investigation phase, which could begin in the autumn and last until 2023.
A model will never be able to provide an exhaustive description of reality, but a good macro model can and should be a framework for ratiocination. In this way, the model plays an important role in the analytical basis for interest rate setting. At the same time, there are many questions and conditions about which we are uncertain and where models cannot help us. For example, we do not know whether the high rate of growth in productivity is a permanent phenomenon or whether it will gradually fall back. We have little precise knowledge about what is driving productivity growth. It may be that we are seeing a period of equilibrium with higher employment, lower unemployment and lower wage shares than earlier. But we are uncertain how long this period will last. Even if we use different models and anecdotal information, we cannot escape the need for a healthy portion of qualified judgement when making forecasts and setting the interest rate. My experience from as far back as the 1970s is that in the event of major disturbances and structural changes in the economy, one essentially has to rely on general insights about the functioning of the economy. Models that rely heavily on regressions easily break down.

If we now add and subtract expectations about the general rise in prices in the economy, we are left with the following four variables that have a bearing on user costs: house prices, longterm real interest rates, capital depreciation and expected real rise in house prices.5  3  As did, for example, Knut Anton Mork, chief economist in Handelsbanken Norge, in the Norwegian financial daily Finansavisen on 25 August. 4  See for example Lebow, David E. and Jeremy B. Rudd (2003): “Measurement Error in the Consumer Price Index: Where Do We Stand?” Journal of Economic Literature, vol. XLI, pages 159-201, or Boskin, Michael J., Ellen R. Dulberger, Robert J. Gordon, Zvi Griliches og Dale Jorgenson (1996): “Toward A More Accurate Measure Of The Cost Of Living.” Final report to the Senate Finance Committee, Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index, 4 December 1996 or Gordon, R. J. (2005): Apparel price 1914-93 and the Hulten/Brueghel paradox, NBER Working Paper 11548. 5  For purposes of simplification, capital gains tax of 28 per cent is disregarded. Interest rate expenses are tax deductible, while capital gains on the sale of a dwelling are not liable to tax if the dwelling has been owned for more than 12 months and the dwelling has been occupied by the owner for at least 12 of the 24 months prior to sale. Any losses are tax deductible only if any capital gains are liable to tax.
One way of maintaining credibility and support for the price stability target is, in our opinion, to show a high level of openness and clarity with regard to conducting monetary policy. Openness involves, for instance, reporting which considerations we make with regard to prospects for the business climate, etc. when we make decisions regarding interest rates. However, it also means that we are transparent with regard to the sources of knowledge we use as a basis for our decisions. Clarity is also often aimed at creating the right conditions for analysts in the banking sector to forecast how monetary policy will react to various types of new information. Consistent and symmetrical actions with regard to monetary policy increases confidence in the price stability target, which in turn should have a stabilising effect on inflation expectations. My speech today should be seen as part of our endeavour to achieve openness. In many cases, I will raise questions to which we do not have answers. Our ambition is to increase our knowledge both by studying existing research and by stimulating our own and others' research in this field. The banks are important for the Riksbank's tasks I will now move on to speak about the significance of the banks for our capacity to maintain price stability. The banks play an important role in enabling monetary policy to maintain price stability, in a number of ways. Firstly, the banks are central to the capacity to make payments in the economy generally.

Other mechanisms that in certain situations can reduce the impact of monetary policy from its normal level include the banks tightening their credit standards - known as a credit crunch - because they cannot increase their credit risk exposure, for example, as a result of the capital adequacy rules. 4  BIS Review 80/2001  Following a long period of a strong expansion in credit, based on lenders' expectations of continued growth and high wealth levels, a severe downturn in the economy and falling asset prices can, for instance, lead to the banks limiting their lending due to uncertainty over the quality of their existing loan stock. With hindsight, the banks can conclude that they have probably misjudged credit risks earlier and thus lent money at an interest rate that was too low, as well as failing to reserve sufficient funds to cover future losses. Monetary policy relief can in such situations have less impact than otherwise, as the banks are not prepared to make loans even to profitable investments. To summarise, there is good reason to try to learn more about what affects monetary policy's impact, for instance, via the banks, in different situations. Developments on the financial markets over time and differences between various countries indicate that the impact on demand and inflation of a particular monetary policy measure should differ between periods and between countries.
Here I would point to market liberalisation, technological advance and the development of a range of new instruments for transferring risk. Third, market participants need to be aware that financial stability starts with them. Integrity and sensible restraint are the bedrocks of stability. This requires heightened awareness that the leverage in the system as a whole, encouraged by the new risk transfer techniques, contains its own vulnerabilities. Fourth, in response to the changing environment, the financial authorities have had to adapt their models and procedures for regulation and oversight. Greater disclosure and transparency can be antidotes to the information deficits in an increasingly complex, and sometimes opaque, financial system. International cooperation is at a premium, both in delivering a consolidated view of globally active firms, and in seeking to clarify who is expected to do what when difficulties arise. They need to match this level of technical expertise with the private sector, and to contend with new or heightened risks in such areas as business continuity. Fifth, as a central bank, we need to be as clear as we can about the nature of our contribution to the oversight process. At the core is our concern with the maintenance of liquidity, and our capacity to inject it when necessary. Much of our financial stability work is aimed at identifying potential liquidity strains, and what responses are likely to be most effective. Lastly, whilst the challenges for oversight may be daunting, progress in addressing these challenges is significant.

Faced with these barbaric acts, I wish to recall the determination of the Banque de France – and of the financial sector – to participate in the fight against terrorism, by attacking its financing. Many of you will attend this afternoon the presentations, introduced by Mr Delas, ViceChairman of the ACPR, on anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing in the insurance sector. As you know, the ACPR College, together with Tracfin, adopted just last week new guidelines in this area, applicable to both banks and insurance firms. I am in no doubt that the financial sector will be fully involved in their implementation; we will ensure this together with the professionals. I would also like to recall today our determination to fully participate in the mobilisation of the nation, by contributing more broadly to economic and social cohesion, through greater banking and financial inclusion. The protection of consumers – and in particular the most vulnerable ones – is one of the components of this. Financial education and the fight against overindebtedness are also priorities to which the Banque de France actively contributes. Terrorism, alas, also feeds off exclusion in its different forms. II/ Second, our supervision of business practices is also important for financial stability. Since its creation in 2010, the ACPR has been responsible for safeguarding financial stability and ensuring consumer protection.
At the same time as Keynes’ analysis began to be questioned on the basis of economic theory 3 , the world suffered deep recessions in the wake of the oil price shocks of the 1970s,  1  The NBER has a “Business cycle dating committee” which has a procedure for dating peaks and troughs in economic cycles in the United States. 2  J. M. Keynes., “The General Theory of employment, Interest, and Money”. London: Macmillan. 1936. 3  Lucas' criticism, for instance, R. E. Lucas "Econometric policy evaluation; a critique.” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 1976. 1: 19-46. BIS Review 121/2008  1  which led to a more pessimistic view of the ability of economic policy. People realised that fiscal policy measures often came too late and that attempts at an active economic policy often merely resulted in high inflation. An alternative interpretation began to emerge; fluctuations in economic activity were regarded as the result of changes in production conditions. The 1980s saw the advent of RBC-models 4 , which stands for Real Business Cycle. The characteristic of these was that they considered fluctuations in the production of goods and services to be natural consequences of externally caused changes in production conditions. This could be changes in technology; IT is one example. It could also be sharp swings in the oil price, terrorist attacks or war, but also more natural examples such as the weather. They assumed that the markets themselves were best suited to adapt to the changed conditions.

Productivity growth usually slows down when economic activity slows down, but in recent years productivity growth has been unusually low. It is also unusual that productivity growth falls as long as eight quarters in a row, as it has now. It is difficult to find a simple explanation for the low productivity growth in recent years. The National Institute of Economic Research has studied the composition effects, to put it simply, if the composition of industries with different rates of productivity has changed, and it finds no great effect on productivity. 13 Another possible explanation could be that the recent increase in employment has meant that new groups with a lower productivity than others have entered the labour market. For instance, it can take time to train new employees. It may also be the case that companies have prepared for coming retirements by employing additional staff so there are currently two to a job in some cases. When productivity slows down, unit labour costs increase, and this puts further pressure on companies to raise prices. There is thus risk of higher inflation. We are currently facing a situation where it is difficult to predict how companies will adjust to high unit labour costs. It is always difficult to dismiss staff, but indicators such as job vacancies, redundancies, companies’ employment plans, etc. point towards an adjustment having begun. At the same time, a general decline in demand makes it difficult for companies to pass on cost increases to consumers.
Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: National fintech strategy to be developed Opening remarks by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, at the NBRM Workshop on Fintech, Skopje, 6 December 2019. * * * Dear Mr. Jay Tikam, representatives of the financial sector regulators, ministries Dear colleagues, ladies and gentlemen, It is my great pleasure to open this Fintech event organized as part of our ongoing efforts to encourage Fintech debate among regulators, supervisors, relevant ministries and other stakeholders. As many times before, the European Fund for Southeast Europe, has again proved its long-standing support for delivering workshops in a number of central bank areas, for which we are sincerely thankful. The main idea of this workshop is to raise awareness among decision makers and other stakeholders on the importance of the new fintech solutions and at the same time to lay ground for its development in our country, starting by identifying relevant goals and activities to be envisaged in our forthcoming National Fintech Strategy. Over the last couple of years, the development of financial technology and its penetration in a wide spectrum of financial services has gained momentum.

In recent years, in the developed countries, but also in a number of developing countries, the financial regulators have established and implemented various initiatives (innovation facilitators) aimed at promoting the use of financial innovation in different segments of the financial system. Given the importance of the issue and responding to the rising challenges, our central bank has recently established an Innovation Hub – a small expert group of the central bank, dedicated to closely monitoring and supporting fintech developments. The scope of work of the Hub is directly related to the mandate of modern central banks in the field of maintaining financial stability and monitoring systemic risks. This body will support National Bank’s efforts to deepen the financial inclusion, contribute to consumer protection and to providing operational and legal certainty in the financial markets infrastructure. We strongly believe that the Hub will be a central point of contact with the industry, including the fintech firms, and will enable building internal capacities for adequate implementation of the new technologies and monitoring of the associated risks, as well as serve as a platform for sharing information and discussing best practices. Finally, the Innovation Hub will also bring the prospect of using digitalization for supervisory purposes, as a complement to our current supervisory methods, principles, and judgement. Suptech is becoming synonym for exploring new technologies, especially in the area of supervisory data collection and analysis.
Blockchain technology may however be well-suited to other areas, for instance, supply chain management. 10. See S. Shukla (2022), The ‘Blockchain Trilemma’ That’s Holding Back Crypto, The Washington Post, 11 September. 11. As of 14 June bitcoin had a market capitalisation of € billion. Source: CoinGecko. 12. See Gschossmann, I. van der Kraaij, A., Benoit, P-L. and Rocher, E. (2022), “Mining the environment – is climate risk priced into crypto-assets?”, ECB Macroprudential Bulletin, 11 July. 13. Moreover, Makarov and Schoar show that bitcoin mining is highly concentrated: the top 10% of miners control 90% of mining capacity and just 0.1% (about 50 miners) control close to 50% of mining capacity. Alternatively, blockchains based on proof of stake are faster, but also tend towards centralisation, as larger coin holders can reap more rewards, concentrating power and the risk of 51% attacks. See Makarov, I. and Schoar, A. (2022), “Blockchain Analysis of the Bitcoin Market”, NBER Working Papers, No 29396, National Bureau of Economic Research, 18 April. 14. See Soares, X. (2023), “On-Chain vs. Off-Chain Transactions: What’s the Difference?”, CoinDesk, 11 May. 15. See Walch, A. (2018), “Chapter 11 - Open-Source Operational Risk: Should Public Blockchains Serve as Financial Market Infrastructures?”, in Chuen, D.L.K. and Deng, R. (eds. ), Handbook of Blockchain, Digital Finance, and Inclusion, Vol. 2, Academic Press, pp. 243-269. 16. Moreover, the fact that data stored on the blockchain is immutable and transparent may put the technology in conflict with digital privacy rights. 17.

From the statistical point of view, the financial crisis which turned into a global recession has provided a good opportunity to carry out a stock-taking exercise in the areas of data availability and timeliness. In the case of the Czech National Bank, it was quite a comprehensive exercise since the central bank acts as a monetary authority, integrated supervisor and statistical institution, which brings a lot of synergies. During the period of turbulence banks were required to provide us with additional information regarding, for example, their liquidity positions, exposures vis-à-vis the group of their foreign parent bank and information indicating how active the banks were in their lending activities. This information was even provided on a daily basis for some time. Some data, both standard and those provided as a result of the global financial crisis, are collected mainly for supervisory reasons and other data for monetary purposes, but put together they provide the policy makers with a comprehensive set of information. In addition, the statistical and regulatory  BIS Review 107/2009  1  concepts have interacted more closely since data collection for both purposes started to be carried out in a coordinated way. Integration of supervision in the central bank, which took place more than three years ago, thus also proved successful during this turbulent period. The Czech National Bank is both a user and producer of statistics. Macroeconomic statistics produced by the Czech Statistical Office are very important for the central bank.