samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But national policies across the world must take into account that the policy to take us out of the crisis must support the functioning of market economy, not constraining it. In this light, the growth prospects of the EU are very insecure. In the IMF's opinion GDP in EU countries will decrease 4% in 2009 and may decline by 0.3% next year. Industrial production in the EU has lowered to a level last recorded nearly ten years ago. Such pessimism contrasts rather sharply with the opinion quite widespread in the middle of 2008 – that Europe will not be hit very hard by the crisis. Reality, however, has turned out rather different. The EU has, on the one hand, been affected by loan losses suffered by major banks due to the financial crisis and, on the other hand, by drastic contraction in demand in its main export markets. The European Union is, for instance, much more open than the USA, thus the share of exports in its GDP is larger and its economy is more severely affected by dwindling global trade. In addition, banks in Europe have difficulties with financing enterprises, since on top of the losses suffered in securities markets, asset quality is also expected to deteriorate. To put it more simply, the share of bad loans will increase due to the recession. The economic crisis has affected EU Member States differently.

A second group would be those supervisory agencies, central banks, multilateral financial institutions, and other public authorities around the world who shared with us the perspectives and needs of banking systems that are based in many different markets, economies, and legal systems. Thanks to discussions with these colleagues, such as through joint working groups like the Core Principles Liaison Group and through regional consultations and meetings, the Committee was better able to ensure that the new framework would be relevant to many different kinds of banks and economies that are in various stages of growth and development. The cooperation of so many public authorities worldwide has helped to make Basel II a truly global product. The Committee will continue to seek opportunities to deepen its relationships, and its opportunities for discussion, with other supervisors and central banks in the months and years ahead. Of course, this work would have been impossible without the sponsorship of the Bank for International Settlements. I would like to offer my sincere thanks to Malcolm Knight, the General Manager of the BIS, for his institution’s support of our work on Basel II. The BIS has been a staunch ally and advocate for our work over the entire thirty-year history of the Committee. With regard to Basel II itself, the BIS is fostering a greater understanding of the new framework among central bankers and supervisors  BIS Review 38/2004  1  worldwide through programs organised by its Financial Stability Institute, the “FSI”.
China has a high rate of savings, healthy external position, an inherent competitive mass manufacturing advantage and a large educated workforce to sustain its long-term potential economic growth. Importantly, the narrative of the global future of China cannot be explained in isolation – it is part of a broader account of the growing importance and greater integration of Asia, and the stronger interlinkages with other emerging economies in the global economic landscape. China and the region are becoming more than just global exporters. The increased efforts are seen in the steps to develop more extensive investment and financial linkages in the region as well as the rest of the world through key strategic initiatives such as the One Belt One Road initiative, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank. Reflecting its expanding role in the global economy and the international financial BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  system, the renminbi will assume greater strategic importance in facilitating the development of these new investment and financial linkages, including meeting the greater demand for infrastructure spending. This is also reinforced by the transition of Asia from a global producer to a global consumer thus becoming an important driver of growth in the world economy. The rise of the renminbi is often associated with expectations of rapid capital account liberalisation. In this regard, the historical experience of the major currencies over the recent fifty years holds important lessons for the renminbi.

With regard to legislation, I also believe that further supplementary measures will be needed in future. I will return to this later on. During the recent financial turbulence the Riksbank has not only had regular contacts with other authorities and the political system – we have also had closer contacts with market participants than usual. Central banks around the world have also had close cooperation with regard to reducing the strains in the financial markets in various ways. So what have we at the Riksbank done to make the markets function better? Improving the functioning of the markets The Swedish banks have mainly experienced two problems. One has been the lack of access to more long-term funding in Swedish kronor. The other has been the limited possibilities to borrow in US dollars. As I mentioned earlier, it has been much more difficult and costly for the banks to obtain financing other than at very short maturities. The banks’ possibility to finance themselves is of course important to financial stability. It also affects other interest rates in the economy and thereby the impact of monetary policy. We at the Riksbank try to counteract these effects of the financial turmoil. We have therefore offered the banks financing – against collateral and at an interest rate – at longer durations than normal, and than what is currently available in the markets. We have so far granted loans in Swedish kronor at maturities of three months and six months to a total of SEK 203 billion.
This is despite the oil price having almost doubled over the past two years and substantial price rises on other commodities. Most indications are that international economic activity will continue to develop well over the coming years. We are assuming that economic activity in the euro area will improve more and more and that growth in the United States and Asia will slow down somewhat. The Swedish economy has also shown good growth in recent years. The upswing in world trade has contributed to strong growth in Swedish exports. Over the past year, domestic demand has also developed favourably, partly due to stimulation from expansionary monetary policy. The labour market situation has at long last begun to improve. Our assessment is that growth in the Swedish economy will remain high over the coming years. Household consumption is expected to accelerate and employment to increase. We also envisage inflation rising as capacity utilisation increases (diagram 2). Over the past six months we have witnessed the beginning of a rise in the rate of price increase, albeit from a low level. This does not appear to be due to large price rises within a few product groups; it appears to be a broader upturn. The Inflation Report we are publishing today indicates that inflation will be close to the target level a couple of years from now. This assumes gradual increases in the repo rate. I would like to emphasise that there are factors which complicate this picture. Inflation was unexpectedly low in January.

Stronger analytics around funding •  Firms should have be able to produce analyses by material legal entity on a timely basis about its funding arrangements, including: –  Inter-affiliate funding arrangements;  –  Where liquidity reserves are held;  –  Stressed funding and liquidity outflows and inflows at the legal entity level; and  –  Impact of restrictions on transfer of liquidity between entities imposed by regulatory or resolution regimes. MIS by legal entity •  Firms should be able to produce on a timely basis detailed monthly balance sheets by material entity, as well as identify all credit exposures with a level of specificity including type of exposure, counterparty and maturity. •  Firms should also have inventories of key management and support functions; property owned, leased or licensed; internal shared services; and key third party contracts. •  Finally, firms should have inventories of key legal information, including legal entity types, purpose and relevant licenses, physical location, regulator, senior management and directors; and applicable resolution regime and authority, as well as sufficient information on legal agreements, such as parties to the agreements, key terms of agreements, and any relevant interdependencies. Arrangements for shared or outsourced services •  The final area for additional work is ensuring robust arrangements for the continued provision of shared or outsourced services needed to maintain operations.
•  Payments – Apple, Google, Paypal, Amazon, and Alibaba have payment solutions that replace physical wallets and credit cards. •  Lending - Zopa, Lending Club, and Funding Circle offer peer-to-peer lending solutions that match lenders and borrowers on their online platforms. •  Investment – “robo-advisers” like WealthFront use data analytics to dispense online personal financial advice and investment management services. Indeed, these non-financial firms look set to disrupt the financial industry. •  As a senior banker in the US puts it: “People need banking, not banks”. The second thing that is happening is that FIs are fighting back. •  As disintermediation threatens FIs, they are being pushed into a rethink of their business models. •  Rising costs, shrinking margins, and the weight of new regulatory requirements are pressing FIs to look into more cost-efficient ways of running their businesses. •  They are increasingly turning towards innovation and technology for solutions. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  •  In an ironic way, the FinTech insurgency is forcing change among the incumbent FIs. Leveraging on their size and networks, FIs are using technology much more intensely to enhance their product offerings and service delivery. •  Example: US insurance companies, Progressive and Allstate, are using telematics to develop usage-based motor insurance, also known as Pay-As-You-Drive (or PayHow-You-Drive). •  Instead of rewarding past good driving behaviour, these insurers are able to price premiums contemporaneously with current driving habits. What does all this mean?

The big trends in technology affecting finance What are the big trends in technology affecting the financial industry? Let me cite six technologies that appear potentially transformative: •  digital and mobile payments  •  authentication and biometrics  •  block chains and distributed ledgers  •  cloud computing  •  big data  •  learning machines  First, mobile and digital payments. Payment services are increasingly being enabled by mobile applications and near-field communications (NFC). •  Gone are the days of the clunky cash register. •  Today, accepting payments can be as simple as attaching a small dongle, no bigger than a matchbox, to a tablet or smartphone. This is only the beginning. •  Payments at stores and restaurants may increasingly not even require physical touch points, and could take place entirely over the Internet, using the customer’s smart device to effect payments. •  Further out, we can look to a future of seamless payments, where technology automatically recognises the customer, checks out the goods, and charges to the customer’s account as he walks out of the store. Second, authentication and biometrics. Authenticating one’s identity is critical to gaining access to a variety of financial services and performing many financial transactions. As authentication technology progresses, we can look forward to more secure and efficient solutions to authenticate identity. Biometric authentication is making good advances.
Very early on, the National Bank realised that it could defend its autonomy and strengthen confidence in the Swiss franc by adopting rules of conduct. From the start, it strove to adhere to the rules of the gold standard and maintained this policy until the system of fixed exchange rates collapsed in 1973. With the Swiss franc losing its traditional anchor, the SNB was forced to adopt new rules. This was achieved 18 months later with the publication of annual growth targets for the money supply, a strategy which was pursued until 1999. Since 2000, our interest rate decisions have been based on our medium-term inflation forecast and our definition of price stability, which we consider achieved if annual inflation remains below 2%. The second constant in the National Bank’s activity over the past 100 years has been its adherence to the rules of monetary discipline. This strategy has allowed us, as it did our predecessors, to conduct a coherent monetary policy over all these years while shielding our institution from all kinds of demands, both economic and political. 2  BIS Review 71/2007  Willingness to adapt Given the strong disruptions in the international environment in the past 100 years, pursuing a policy of stability and applying the rules of monetary discipline has not been an easy undertaking. Let us not forget the obstacles we encountered in adhering to the rules of the gold standard and the fixed exchange rate system in times of war or during major international upheavals.

The new National Bank was expected to gradually take over the activities of the former noteissuing institutions and to bring some welcome order to the payment system. At the time, the value of the Swiss franc was defined in gold and silver, the precious metal content of the coins was fixed accordingly and banknotes could be exchanged for gold. Nowadays, the SNB’s responsibility in matters of monetary stability is uncontested. In fact, it is explicitly mandated by law to preserve price stability while taking economic developments into account. Moreover, economic theory stresses the special responsibility of central banks in this area. The goals, methods and instruments of monetary policy have thus undergone profound changes. Nevertheless, the principles that have guided our activity over the past century have been remarkably enduring, and this is exemplified by the history of the National Bank. Pursuit of stability From the outset, the National Bank recognised that its role as the national note-issuing institution would extend far beyond the harmonisation of payment systems. The first steps were difficult. During the First World War, the SNB actively participated in financing military expenditures through its loans. This undisciplined lending policy pushed up inflation, thereby contributing to the social unrest of 1918. This sparked a broad debate on the SNB’s responsibility for the massive price rise. These events, along with the subsequent tragedy of German hyperinflation, left a strong mark on the National Bank. It must have been at that time that the SNB fully realised the complexity of its task.
Likewise, a fall in oil prices does not have an impact on the domestic  BIS Review 66/2004  1  economy, but results in a lower accumulation of foreign assets. The Fund thus acts as a buffer against disturbances. By building up the Fund, the aim of ensuring that several generations will enjoy the benefits of our petroleum wealth is also taken into account. In 2001, the Storting adopted new economic policy guidelines in Norway. At the same time as the inflation target was introduced in monetary policy, a strategy was drawn up for the use of petroleum revenues over the government budget, i.e. the fiscal rule. The fiscal rule is designed to prevent swings in the petroleum sector from spreading to the mainland economy. This ensures that petroleum revenues are phased in at a steady pace. The guideline specifying that only the real return on the Petroleum Fund is to be used means that the capital in the Fund is not depleted over time. Norges Bank has no set target for the level of the exchange rate. Nevertheless, developments in the krone are of considerable importance to interest-rate setting because the exchange rate has an impact on inflation and output. An important channel for monetary policy is the foreign exchange market and the krone exchange rate. Although the krone fluctuates, the krone exchange rate is not particularly unstable compared with other countries’ currencies. The krone exchange rate is the price of our currency measured in a foreign currency.

Signs of moderation were witnessed in various economic activities, such as consumption and investment, as well as in government spending, despite signs of a rise in some exports. As the political deadlock lingers, tourism has begun to feel the impact. In the last MPC meeting of April 23rd, the committee projected that the Thai economy in will grow less in 2014 than the previously assessed at 2.7 percent. This will be mainly due to the weaker-than-expected economic momentum in the first quarter of the year and the political impasse posing downside risks to domestic demand and tourism. However, the economy is expected to resume its normal growth in 2015. 4. Notwithstanding the short-term headwinds, there are also causes for optimism. Global economic activity has been firming up. Growth has gathered momentum in the US, the Euro area and Japan. Recent government’s attempts in China to reform the financial sector should support sustained growth in the longer term, although with some impacts on short-term growth. In emerging economies, the turbulence in financial markets has somewhat receded following these economies’ attempts to address vulnerabilities and also in Thailand, the financial market has stabilized. Volatilities in foreign exchange market have been contained. The IMF, in their April report, projected that the global economy will grow at 3.6 per cent this year, which is an improvement from 3.0 percent growth last year. This more favorable external environment should benefit export-reliant countries such as Thailand. Medium-term challenges 5.
The derivative market has also been developed with the introduction of Islamic currency swaps and profit rate swaps. There has also been significant growth in Islamic asset and wealth management following the development of diverse and innovative structures of Islamic investment funds, including Islamic hedge funds. There are now more than 250 Shariah-compliant mutual funds that are managing an estimated USD300 billion in assets. Other developments include the creation of benchmark indices such as the Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes – covering more than USD10 trillion market capitalisation in over 40 countries, the Financial Times Stock Exchange Global Islamic Index Series, and the listing of Islamic financial instruments on international exchanges. These developments have enhanced the depth of the Islamic financial markets as an attractive asset class for investment. Another important development in Islamic finance during this period has been the strengthening of the international Islamic financial architecture. In 2002, a major structural enhancement was the establishment of the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB), which formulates the international regulatory and prudential standards for Islamic finance. It has since issued the standards for capital adequacy, risk management and corporate governance. Among the standards that are currently being formulated include market conduct and rules for financial disclosure, transparency, the Shariah governance framework and the supervisory review process. This is to ensure best practices and the soundness and stability of the Islamic financial system.

Most significant has been the development of the Islamic financial markets, the increase in the range of the financial products and services, the increasing significance of the international dimension of Islamic finance, the development of the international Islamic financial architecture, and the enhanced international inter-linkages that has been brought about by these developments. Transformation of the Islamic financial landscape As recent as five years ago, the development of Islamic finance was regarded as an infant industry striving to prove its viability and competitiveness. At that time, the growth of Islamic finance was organic and largely concentrated in countries where the Muslim population was significant. In these five years, Islamic finance has recorded dramatic growth and has a presence in more than 75 countries both in Muslim and non-Muslim dominated communities. There are also a growing number of the international financial centres that are beginning to offer Islamic financial products and services such as in London, Singapore and Hong Kong. The number of Islamic banking institutions worldwide including conventional banks that are offering Islamic banking services have doubled to more than 300. The total Islamic financial assets under their management is now estimated to exceed one trillion US dollars, about fivefold its magnitude five years ago. Islamic finance is now among the fastest growing financial segments in the international financial system with an estimated average annual growth of between 15 to 20 percent.
Price stability, as everyone realizes, may be defined in many ways, with somewhat different consequences for the execution of monetary policy. When the index for measuring inflation is chosen, a number of different considerations have to be taken into account. The index has to be reasonably broad and give a picture of price developments in the economy as a whole. It is an advantage if it is also well established and regularly published with a short time lag. In addition, it is desirable that the index is seldom revised. All these factors bear out the suitability of the consumer price index (CPI) . Thus, the Riksbank’s inflation target has been expressed in terms of a change in the official consumer price index. BIS Review 56/1997  -8-  Figure 5  CPI an d U n d e r lyin g In flatio n Pe r ce n tage 12-m o n th ch an ge 6 .0  6 .0  CP I  5 .0  5 .0  Un derl y i n g do m es tic in fl ati o n  4 .0 3 .0  4 .0 3 .0  2 .0  2 .0  1 .0  1 .0 0 .0  0 .0 92  93  94  95  96  97 -1 .0  -1 .0  Sources: S tatistics S weden and the R iksbank One problem with the CPI is that it is affected by temporary influences on inflation.

Denis Beau: The digitalisation of the financial sector - new challenges, new levers Closing speech by Mr Denis Beau, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of France, at the 4th Assises des Technologies Financières, 30 September 2021. * * * Ladies and gentlemen, I would first like to thank the President, Eric Woerth, for inviting me to close these 4th Assises des Technologies Financières, and to provide my insight, as a central banker and supervisor, into the challenges posed by the digitalisation of financial services. In the framework of our mission to safeguard monetary and financial stability, the main issue for the Banque de France is how we can facilitate and accompany the digitalisation of the financial sector, which is a source of efficiency gains, while at the same time preserving the stability of our monetary and financial system. In order to present the concrete responses we are trying to bring to this issue, I shall start by reminding you of the new challenges posed by digitalisation to the safety and efficiency of the financial sector, before describing the three main areas where we are working to  respond, in line with our mandate. I. The digitalisation of the financial sector poses new challenges  A) In terms of security, one of the main concerns raised by the current digital transformation of the financial system is IT or cyber-risk. The digital transformation considerably increases financial system participants’ surface area of exposure to cyber-threats, and hence their vulnerability to such risk.