samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Stronger regulation and supervision can do their bit. In the end, however, it is up to the banks themselves to ensure they lead long and healthy lives. 8/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  And with these three messages this long speech comes to an end. Thank you for your attention. 9/9  BIS central bankers' speeches

Long-term interest rates (variation in basis points) May 2006(1) Argentina Australia Brazil Chile Eurozone Hungary Indonesia Japan Malaysia Mexico New Zealand Philippines Poland Russia South Africa South Korea Turkey United Kingdom USA  February 2007 (2) -4 15 25 11 108 118 -9 30 50 9 -72 -11 122 -679 4 8  --18 35 -7 -8 6 7 -4 -3 -6 -12 --5 0 20 -75 -9 -13  August 2007 (3) 382 Argentina -36 Australia 90 Brazil -8 Chile -26 Eurozone 53 Hungary 112 Indonesia -33 Japan 23 Malaysia 27 Mexico -60 New Zealand -- Philippines 12 Poland 26 Russia 3 South Africa -- South Korea 161 Turkey -34 United Kingdom -33 USA  (1) Shows variation between 10 May and 27 June. (2) Shows variation between 26 February and 5 March. (3) Shows variation between 19 July and 17 August. Source: Bloomberg. Something very simple reflects the proper functioning of our economy: in a moment where the world has seen a major retraction of credit operations, in Chile companies have continued to place long-term bonds in the private market. 8  BIS Review 97/2007  Conclusions It follows, then, that the Chilean economy has resumed a strong growth after the unexpected slowdown in the third quarter of last year. In parallel, due mainly to a different supply-side shocks, inflation has risen considerably. In this setting, monetary policy must, aside from anticipating the inflationary consequences of the business cycle, prevent second-round effects related to these shocks.
Although the initial effects of the Ukrainian crisis are perceived as limited to the affected countries and countries in their region, further deterioration of the situation could lead to expansion of the second-round adverse effects globally, particularly in the case of disrupted production/transport of gas and oil and escalation of the sanctioning and counter-sanctioning measures, which would especially violate global trade and financial flows. On the other hand, a more severe turmoil in the Middle East could lead to significant disruptions in oil production and consequently, to a sharp rise in oil prices. The probability of lower growth of the Chinese economy in the short run, as a result of significant adjustments on the real estate market also poses a risk to global growth. From the perspective of emerging economies, major risk factor is the time and the pace of increase of the Fed’s policy rate. Namely, if for some reason (such as a revision of the assessment of capacity utilization in the US economy) the Fed’s policy rate increases faster than the expectations of market participants, it would increase the volatility of the financial markets and would trigger capital outflows, especially from the vulnerable emerging economies. Such outflows and pressures on the exchange rates of emerging countries could also be caused in the event of adverse economic and geopolitical developments in global terms, which would lead toward increased global risk aversion and resorting to “safe” assets.

The number of employees has grown steadily since the beginning of 2012, with the growth being especially pronounced during 2013 (over 4%) on an annual basis, as a combination of the labor demand by new companies (the number of companies with a large number of employees began to grow faster exactly in 2013), the active measures on the labor market, and the gradual intensification of the activity of the rest of the economy. The unemployment rate, though still high, is constantly declining and according to the latest data it is 27.9%. What is important is that its reduction is a combination of the decline in the number of unemployed persons, and the larger number of active population. The participation rate reached 57.3%, which is an upward adjustment of about 1 percentage point compared to 2008 and is a sign of the positive perceptions of the conditions on the labor market. As expected, the indicators of productivity and unit labor costs also register positive movements starting from this year (increase in productivity and decline in costs by about 2% on average in 2014). Although these indicators are still less favorable compared with the pre-crisis performances, given the growth of the economy, this gap is gradually decreasing. In the medium term we expect further narrowing of the gap. The banking system provides additional credit flows in the economy, whereby it actively supports the economic growth.
But in this instance, we could benefit by His teaching which is very relevant, in my view, to the business attitude of the re-positioned Management Accountant. This specific teaching which even today could serve as a simple “to do list” for ourselves to deliver outputs, may be set out as 6 point doctrine – First, Arambhaka Dhathu. That is, the action should start. Ideas, proposals, plans, strategies are of no use, unless they are converted into action. Discussions are of no value unless it leads to action. What is tangible would be action and without starting the action, our overall visions and missions would never be realized. Second, Nikkhama Dhathu. That is, the action should continue. There are many actions that we commence, but stop quickly. It is like the opening of a bottle of Soda; a lot of hiss; a lot of gas; a lot of noise, but becomes flat after some time. Very often, we do not have the energy, the drive, the motivation or the staying power to continue with the actions that we start. Therefore, we need to ensure that actions are continued, if the performance is to be achieved. Thirdly, Parakkama Dhathu. That means, the action should not be affected by interruptions and challenges. In the performance of any action, we will definitely encounter resistance and opposition. Often, at the first whiff of opposition, we retreat.

And we are observing no taper tantrum in response to the current plans aimed at unwinding the ECB’s QE: so far, emerging countries appear to be surprisingly resilient. The likely reason is a different backdrop, with rising commodity prices and synchronised global growth as the leading factors. I will close with a short observation on the so-called China effect in relation to emerging markets’ resilience. For decades, China has pumped savings into the global economy. Among other effects important for advanced and emerging economies alike, this inflow of savings has depressed the global equilibrium interest rate. The decrease in the equilibrium rate has, in turn, restricted the options of central banks around the world and nudged them to rely more on unconventional policies, with important effects on the stability of flows to and from emerging economies. But the China effect will soon start to ebb as the country’s dependence ratio spikes, pushing global interest rates higher. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Public debt sustainability assessment Empirical model  𝑦𝑖,𝑡 = 𝑝𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐_𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡𝑖,𝑡−4 + 𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖,𝑡−4 + 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖,𝑡−4 + 𝑏𝑢𝑑𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑖,𝑡−4 + 𝑟_𝑑𝑜𝑏𝑖,𝑡−4 + ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑝𝑖,𝑡−4 Structural Model  𝑗 𝐷𝑡−1 𝑠𝑡 = 𝜏𝑡 − 𝑔𝑡 + σ∞ 𝑗=1 𝛽 𝐸𝑡  𝑢′ 𝑦𝑡+𝑗 −𝑔𝑡+𝑗  International comparison – the level of the signal threshold in the case of public debt (regression model)  𝑢′ 𝑦𝑡 −𝑔𝑡  𝜏𝑡+𝑗 − 𝑔𝑡+𝑗  Calibrating the optimum level of the public debt using the general equilibrium condition (structural model)  percent of GDP 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 LV  BG  Public debt level  Source: NBR  •  SI  RO  CZ  HU  Signal threshold (regression model)  Source: NBR  For Romania, public debt level > 43% of GDP would lead to risk of recession > 50%  Figure 13.

Structural reforms are incomplete and a possible roadmap for euro-accession or just for further convergence cannot be done without a detailed program of these reforms which should cover governance issues (both in the public and private sectors), investment prioritization, better tax collection, broader reporting, centralized procurement, addressing the issue of companies with negative capital, and much more. In the financial sector, the recent Financial Sector Assessment Program undertaken by the IMF and WB has issued a number of recommendations for structural reforms, including a series of macroprudential policies which the National Bank has already started to implement. Agustin Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlement, said at the presentation of the 2018 Annual Report in Basel: “We must seize the day. Addressing vulnerabilities is key to keeping the growth momentum on track. The stronger performance gives us a window to pursue necessary reforms and recalibrate policies. Let’s not miss this opportunity”. On this note, let me conclude here and wish you all not to miss the opportunities. 7  Figure 1. Real and potential GDP* 1060 1055 1050 1045 1040 1035  GDP  Potential GDP  Source: NBR Note: *logarithmic scale = computed as 100*log(GDP at constant prices)  2018Q1  2017Q3  2017Q1  2016Q3  2016Q1  2015Q3  2015Q1  2014Q3  2014Q1  2013Q3  2013Q1  2012Q3  2012Q1  2011Q3  2011Q1  2010Q3  2010Q1  2009Q3  2009Q1  2008Q3  2008Q1  1030  Figure 2.
The Japanese economy has been in a deflationary recession for a long period. Chart 4. Krone exchange rate and the interest rate differential Per cent  Index  5  90  Interest rate differential (left-hand scale)  4  95  3  100  2  105  Krone exchange rate,TWI (right-hand scale)  1  110  0  115  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  Source: Norges Bank  In recent years, the krone exchange rate has shadowed the difference between Norwegian and foreign short-term rates. This is why the krone has appreciated to its current strong level. In addition, high oil prices have had an influence. The effect of the interest rate differential on the krone has been intensified by conditions in capital markets. Investors have been favouring carry trades. Risk premiums in major currency markets have been low, which seems to indicate that investors have been less prone to speculate in exchange rate fluctuations. Chart 5. Krone exchange rate and US equity prices 110  1500  105  1300  100  Krone exchange rate (left-hand scale) Equity prices (right-hand scale)  1100  900  95  1999  2000  2001  2002  Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank  As equity prices fell, investors started seeking alternative vehicles. This made the krone market more attractive. The krone appreciated at the same time that foreign stock markets and domestic equity prices fell. Bonds and other interest-bearing securities have been of particular interest.

We know that employment in some service industries has fallen. This may indicate that many service enterprises have adjusted their workforces. To some extent, higher costs can more easily be passed on to customers through higher prices in this sector. This picture is typical of the final phase of an expansion. A tight labour market and the contest for economic resources lead to a sharp increase in real wages. This results in high growth in household income, consumption and housing investment. The propensity to borrow increases and house prices rise sharply. On the other hand, the business sector faces pressures on profitability, a high cost level and declining investment. Commercial property prices fall. At the same time, corporate restructuring brings growth in employment to a halt. When costs reach a high level, employment starts to fall. The period of expansion has then come to an end. The cost level must be adjusted to restore balance in the labour market. Wage formation in Norway is subject to an institutional and statutory framework and agreements that have been developed over several decades. The result of negotiations is influenced by labour legislation, including regulations relating to job protection, unemployment benefits and the rules that apply to cooperation and settlement of industrial disputes. In important segments of the labour market, there appears to have been a shift in the social partners’ strategic position in negotiations in favour of employees.
The European Parliament should shortly approve the legislation that creates the single supervisory mechanism, in which the European Central Bank is to play a central role. The single supervisor will become operational twelve months after this approval, but first the ECB must analyse the solvency of all the institutions it is to supervise, an exercise that will have to be incorporated into the new stress tests to be performed by the European Banking Authority next year. The Directive establishing the harmonised resolution regime – currently under debate at the European Council and the European Parliament – and the legislation to create a European authority and a common resolution fund are still pending approval. In the latter case, a proposal must be submitted, on a date yet to be specified, by the European Commission. Conclusions Ladies and Gentlemen, the theme of my speech has been the difficult adjustment that the Spanish economy is currently going through, which needs to be seen in the context of the largely unprecedented international and European setting. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  The advanced economies, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Japan are operating under extremely loose monetary conditions, with exceptionally abundant liquidity and very low interest rates. Emerging from this situation without any impact on growth and without creating fresh financial turmoil will not be easy and considerable risks will be encountered along that path.

Ms Hessius speaks about the monetary policy and growth conditions for Sweden’s economy  Speech given by Ms Kerstin Hessius, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank at the Chairmens’ Conference of the Västmanland’s Local Authorities Association on 27 August 1999. * * * The whole speech The bright picture of the Swedish economy that has been coming to the fore in recent years now seems to be becoming increasingly distinct. Growth is stable and employment is rising, accompanied by price increases that are moderate. It is important now that this bright picture can become permanent and that the work of creating good conditions for long-term economic development continues. Today I shall be considering the economic situation in Sweden and the rest of the world, with some discussion of the conditions for consolidating the favourable trend. Functions of the Riksbank Ever since Sweden abandoned the fixed exchange rate regime in November 1992, monetary policy has been conducted with its sights on inflation. Sweden was one of the first countries to adopt an inflation targeting strategy. In many respects, the period with the inflation target has been characterised by good results in the Swedish economy. Interest rates and inflation have fallen to levels that are historically low and, after the crisis in the early 1990s, growth has been comparatively high and stable.
If the economy is stronger, and we see a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market sooner, we’ll end up doing less. From my perspective, linking our purchases more closely to economic outcomes underlines our determination to generate the kind of recovery that will deliver more rapid progress toward maximum employment in the context of price stability. So what does “substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market” mean to me? Note that I will be focusing on the outlook, not just the current state of labor market conditions. In that context, it wouldn’t be enough for me just to see the unemployment rate decline a bit. It would also matter why the unemployment rate is declining and whether that improvement is likely to be sustained in the future. For example, higher payroll growth that was not supported by stronger economic growth, or falling unemployment rates that were due mainly to declining participation in the labor market, would not likely meet my test. Therefore, to gauge how substantial the improvement in the outlook for the labor market is, I will be looking at a range of indicators, including the unemployment rate, payrolls, the participation rate, the employment to population ratio and job finding rates, as well as the growth momentum within the economy. As we approach year-end, the maturity extension program in which we are increasing our holdings of long-dated Treasuries will be coming to an end.

Their expertise will surely benefit our audience today. I would also like to thank HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank, BOC and BNP Paribas for sharing their experiences with everyone later today. 15. Ladies and gentlemen, I wish you all a fruitful workshop and I look forward to working closely together with the industry to develop green and sustainable banking in Hong Kong. Thank you very much. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Svante Öberg: Sweden – a low inflation economy Speech by Mr Svante Öberg, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Stockholm University, Stockholm, 21 March 2006. Diagrams for the speech can be found on the Sveriges Riksbank’s website. * * * Introduction I shall begin by thanking you for the invitation. It is always a pleasure to come back to Stockholm University, where I myself was a student. I have worked with economics for most of my professional life. Prior to taking up my post at the Riksbank I had, for instance, been under-secretary of state at the Ministry of Finance, Director General of the National Institute of Economic Research and adviser at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington. I intend to use the experience this has given me to provide a long-term perspective to the current economic situation. My theory for the day is that "Things are better now". I shall cover the following areas in my speech: The first part will deal with the Swedish economy in a slightly longer term perspective going back to the 1960s. There I shall discuss some episodes during the past 30 years that have coloured my perception of the Swedish economy and of what is important for monetary policy. The second part will deal with the current economic situation and current monetary policy. Swedish economy 1960-2005 I shall begin with a description of the Swedish economy during the period 1960-2005 and start with a picture of inflation in Sweden and Germany during this period.

In Africa, we have seen successful waqf projects such as the construction of a commercial complex for Islamic studies in Sudan. Waqf, properly structured and with the right governance could create wealth and economic opportunities. Helping to kick start a Market. Another idea to explore is for the AfDB, sovereigns including central bank, and pension funds to set up sukuk funds to give out funding mandate to support and kick-start domestic and regional sukuk investment in Africa. In Malaysia, our Employees Provident Fund and Central Bank of Malaysia have created its mandate to external portfolio managers to include international Shariah compliant equities and sukuk. This strategy has further stimulated growth of Islamic fund management industry. Perhaps these ideas can be adapted to suit the operational environment in Africa. These ideas that I outlined above have been tested and implemented. I believe the same can be considered by new and emerging Islamic finance jurisdictions. Conclusion Let me conclude that the journey in Islamic finance is a rewarding experience. For this journey, we have to bear in mind that It takes serious efforts. We need to be patient and organized. With determination and perseverance, the result will surely follow. We need to work in unison. Respect diversity. Amplify on the collective agreements. Seek solutions for differences. In time we should come to an understanding. We have to ensure, always, that Islamic Finance must remains competitive. It must make sense. The maths must be right. Exciting opportunities exist for new and emerging jurisdictions in Islamic finance.
Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus: Aiming high - navigating the next stage of Malaysia's development Keynote address by Ms Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the world Bank's Aiming High Webinar Series, 27 May 2021. * * * The Economist magazine recently published an article comparing the welfare of citizens across countries, based on a survey of various aspects of well-being. The title of the article was “Money really can buy happiness and recessions can take it away.” It maintained that citizens in highincome countries felt better off about their current life situation, have money for food, and access to good and affordable housing nearby. Quality of life is also better due to less tangible factors such as corruption not being widespread, feeling safe when walking alone at night, feeling well rested and having helped a stranger in the past month. Implicit in these findings is the idea that economic growth should go hand in hand with greater welfare. More than the dollars and cents of becoming wealthier, it is the improvements in the quality of life that countries aspire to achieve. And so, I was heartened to read in the World Bank’s Aiming High report that Malaysia is likely to transition to a high-income economy between 2024 and 2028. This panel discussion is thus very relevant to our situation, now more than ever. For Malaysia, the journey to become a high-income economy will not be easy.

Pandemics and climate-related risks produce similarly devastating effects on the real and financial sectors, causing recessions, unemployment and a large depreciation of value across all asset classes. There are many valuable lessons that we can learn from the current pandemic – including of the urgent need to pay more attention to planetary health. Of importance is how we can move closer towards realising Sustainable Development Goals or SDGs. We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reset and reprioritise resources to reconstruct our economies and financial systems to be more sustainable and inclusive. This includes tackling climate change, given that climate-related risks pose a growing threat to our very way of life. If left unmanaged, we would be faced with irreversible effects of climate change that would impact us far greater than the pandemic. With so much at stake, the whole country has a part to play in this mission. Even the Bank, where we’ve put the management of climate risk, as a top priority. Government that is agile and forward-looking My final point is on changes to the state’s capacity. In the time of change and modernisation, how we approach the government’s role in innovation must also evolve. Let me be clear. It is not that the government should play no role in the economy, but rather, it might be timely for some new thinking about the role of government in the economy, and how it works with the private sector.