samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
First is Mainland authorities’ efforts to connect the interbank and exchange bond markets, which will allow participants in each market to access securities in the other market through an infrastructure connection without having to open separate accounts. This should ultimately be beneficial to the growth of both the CIBM and exchange bond markets, thus creating a bigger pie. 15. Foreign investors who access the interbank market through Bond Connect or CIBM Direct will be able to trade in the exchange market, which is the platform where most non-financial corporate bonds are lodged. The construction of the system linkage between the onshore infrastructure institutions is under way. Upon completion, the HKMA’s Central Moneymarkets Unit will explore with the Mainland side on the system enhancements required for Bond Connect investors to participate in the exchange bond market. 16. This development moves closer to having a single access point to the onshore bond market and will further open up access to the fast-growing credit bond market which remains relatively untapped by international investors. This presents an opportunity for investors to look further along the credit curve for diversification and yield. Relatedly, the entry of foreign firms into the onshore credit rating business is expected to facilitate this process, speed up the convergence of local and global ratings standards, and enhance foreign investors’ analysis of corporate credit. 17. Secondly, Mainland and Hong Kong stock exchanges have reached an agreement to include eligible ETFs in the Stock Connect scheme and technical preparations are under way.

This finding is consistent with other past and ongoing research here at the New York Fed that points to the potential longer-term negative implications of student debt on homeownership and other types of consumer spending. Of course, homeownership is more than just consumption—it has historically been an important form of wealth accumulation. For a large share of households, housing equity is the principal form of wealth. Thus, changes in the way we finance post-secondary education could also have important implications for the distribution of wealth. Before turning it over to my colleagues, I would like to comment briefly on the importance of college costs, financing and access to higher education. It is well known that the average earnings premium from having a college education is high and has risen over the past few decades, in part because of a decline in real average earnings for those without a college degree. In addition to higher earnings, a college education is associated with increased homeownership, as I just discussed. The economic and social returns to having a well-educated and skilled labor force are also well documented. However, I would like to highlight another important role of higher education: it is a pathway to and engine of upward income mobility. I believe that income mobility—the degree to which individuals or families can move up or down in the income distribution over time—is a foundational element for a well-functioning society and indicates the ability of an economy to provide opportunities for all.
In the latter area we actually have made major innovations since our Monetary Policy Meeting last Thursday. We now upload to our public website the background information based on publicly available data before holding the meetings where we decide on monetary policy. Today’s scenario: uncertainty and risks Monetary policy is one of many factors influencing the cost of borrowing faced by households and firms. Another factor that has gained significant importance is the perception of risk and volatility that has swept over every financial market. This increased with the worsening of the global financial crisis last September. In general, and despite efforts made by economic policy makers in the main economies around the world, we are still dwelling in an extremely uncertain scenario. This has a number of implications that ultimately affect the conditions and costs of credit to firms and households not only in Chile but everywhere. To begin with, external lending standards for domestic banks have become more stringent. We see it in that, although our banks have been able to access foreign credit sources, these have been at shorter maturities and with larger spreads over external reference interest rates. This is a reflection of the difficulties that continue to haunt the main global financial institutions and their reluctance to embark in new businesses.

It has become clearer than ever that early euro adoption is undesirable, at least from this standpoint. Furthermore, direct costs have emerged in relation to euro area membership, arising from the sovereign debt crisis and the establishment of resolution mechanisms. Bearing such costs entails not only additional financial efforts. It is politically difficult to justify to the general public the need for financial contributions to mechanisms that richer countries currently benefit from (the collapse of the Radičová Cabinet in Slovakia in 2011 is illustrative in this respect). Another argument for the reluctance to set a target date for euro adoption is also linked to the fact that the euro area, unlike the European Union, appears not to have been a convergence club for its members. Hence, the standard deviation of GDP/capita at PPS relative to the group average indicates higher disparities among countries part of the initial euro area setup, while homogeneity in terms of income has been increasing across the EU. In my opinion, this state of affairs does not rule out the success within the euro area, but merely highlights that it can be achieved only under certain circumstances (the prior achievement of a sufficiently high economic development level and coherent macroeconomic policies). The thorough preparation of euro adoption is therefore essential, so as to ensure the sustainable compliance with nominal convergence criteria, because a single currency area is no place for economies with competitiveness issues or rigid markets.
In the spirit of the MoU agreement, a primary step in our cooperation is to establish high level policy dialogue with the Bundesbank on a regular basis, the first of which will be held in 2014. This is timely, considering that not only will Turkey assume the G20 presidency in 2015 and engage in an even closer interaction with the central banks of the G20 member states, but will also help meet the recently increased need for policy dialogues over the implementation and implications of new unconventional monetary policies. In general, the CBRT places great emphasis on bilateral relations with fellow central banks, especially those of the G20 member countries. The year 2012 is a testament to our commitment, as the CBRT opened six new representative offices, which brought the total number to ten. The first-round representative offices include those in Frankfurt, NY City, London and Tokyo. The ones opened later on are in Moscow and Sydney – to strengthen relations with other G20 presidency countries; Beijing and Kuala Lumpur – to strengthen relations with the Asian countries; Paris – to strengthen relations with the OECD, and finally Washington, DC – to strengthen relations with the IMF. In her efforts to enhance regional cooperation, the CBRT laid the foundations of the dialogue among central banks that paved the way for the establishment of the Central Banks Governors’ Club of Central Asia, the Black Sea Region and the Balkan Countries.

The Yom Kippur War followed two years later, with the OPEC countries’ oil embargo and the first oil crisis. The sharp increase in oil prices led to stagnation and higher unemployment in Western economies. At the same time, inflation took root in many countries. This was the prelude to two decades where the Norwegian economy was marked by instability and high and variable inflation, with subsequent job losses. It took twenty years to bring inflation under control and achieve stable growth in employment, with stable real wage growth and low unemployment. It is important not to forget what went wrong in this long intervening period. At the beginning of the 1970s, the Norwegian economy was still characterised by the strong direct control and regulation of the post-war period. Important elements were: •  fiscal policy oriented towards full employment;  •  credit regulation within limits specified in a separate credit budget;  •  channelling of loans through the state banks;  •  regulation of cross-border lending and other capital movements;  •  low nominal interest rates stipulated by the government authorities;  •  a fixed, though adjustable, krone exchange rate;  •  use of price regulation;  •  an active business policy through state ownership and state grants and subsidies. These developments culminated in the 1973 proposal to establish an incomes policy council. According to the proposal, the social partners would undertake a commitment through the council to keep negotiated wage increases within specific limits.
The Accord in full is meant for the internationally active banks but other banks are expected to follow suit. Although international institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank have announced that the adoption of Basel II will not be a yardstick for measuring compliance with the international best practice, sooner than later it will be the international norm and they will start monitoring the progress. So, there is no point in debating whether or not we should implement Basel II. The debate, if at all, should be how best to implement it and, where possible, be ahead of others. Overall, the benefits to the industry in terms of improvements in risk management and corporate governance and the supervisory action embedded in the Accord cannot be ignored. Basel II has three mutually reinforcing pillars, namely, the Minimum Capital Requirement under Pillar I, the Supervisory Review Process which is Pillar II and Market Discipline or Pillar III. The whole purpose of this exercise is to make capital the key shock absorber in banking operations. For that, simple risk mitigation measures in Basel I were not considered adequate. Therefore, a risk sensitive capital requirement and risk mitigation practices were combined in a more meaningful manner. Banking is a highly leveraged and risky operation and it is imperative to mitigate risks. With or without the Basel Capital Accord, banks and financial institutions must find ways and means to identify risks, assess them and put in processes and procedures to deal with such risks.

Barbon developed the argument that wealth creates demand and he extolled conspicuous consumption: he wrote that “a poor man wants a Pound; a rich man a Hundred”. Clearly, Barbon never quite imagined that one day investment bankers would take his idea to a whole new level. And, finally on Barbon, he was around at the time of the founding of the Bank of England. Indeed, the records suggest that he very much wanted the Bank of England not to be founded, and instead that his own idea of a national Land Bank should have received the favour of the Crown and Parliament. That did not happen, and so I guess that Barbon would not be happy on finding out that the Bank of England will, over three hundred years later, take on regulating his industry of insurance. But then his writings suggest that Barbon was no fan of regulation. From my perspective this is a very exciting time because after nearly three years of work on a wide range of subjects covering the legislation, the new model of prudential supervision, our staff, property, IT and other things, we can see the new Prudential Regulation Authority starting to take shape for real. We are in the process of moving into our new home at 20 Moorgate. There were several reasons why we chose a City location.
In sum, I continue to expect moderate growth in the year ahead and see the risks to that outlook as skewed to the downside, mainly due to uncertainty as to how events in Europe will unfold. Earlier this week we had a meeting of the FOMC. The committee reiterated its intention to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy to support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate. The committee said it now anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014. The committee also released a statement of longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy within the context of the dual mandate, and published information on individual participants’ expectations of the appropriate future interest rate path. As Chairman Bernanke explained in his press conference on Wednesday, the strategy statement “should not be interpreted as indicating any change in how the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy. Rather, its purpose is to increase the transparency and predictability of policy.” Further details on the discussion at the meeting will be available when the minutes are published in three weeks. I will not comment on monetary policy any further today beyond stating that monetary policy has done and will continue to do its part in supporting the recovery – but it is not all-powerful.

Much of this stronger spending was for durable goods, particularly motor vehicles. In the fourth quarter of 2011, sales of light-weight motor vehicles reached the highest quarterly rate since the first half of 2008. This increase is encouraging because it suggests that consumers are now more able to borrow money to finance their purchases of cars and trucks. However, I must note that this boost is likely due in part to temporary factors. First, vehicle sales in the middle of 2011 were depressed due to supply chain disruptions stemming from the tragic earthquake and tsunami in Japan. In addition, a stimulus-related tax provision that allowed businesses to immediately expense some investments expired at the end of 2011. So, some purchases were no doubt timed to occur before that expiration. Moreover, for goods and services other than durable goods, the rate of growth of consumer spending has been rather tepid. The picture that emerges – up to now – is of a consumer who continues to be cautious. In addition to stronger growth of consumer spending, manufacturing output has firmed over the past several months. For example, the widely followed Institute of Supply Management manufacturing composite index rose from October to December 2011. Improvements were particularly notable in new orders and production activity. Stronger growth of consumer spending on durable goods is likely boosting the manufacturing sector. In addition, growth of U.S. exports has been well maintained, while import growth has been subdued.
Let me start with a brief remark about terminology. For a long time, economic thinkers used the term “political economy” to refer to the discipline that we now call “economics”. Adam Smith, David Ricardo or Léon Walras, to name but a few, were some of its exponents. Despite its 400 year-old history, the term “political economy” had in the last decades gradually lost its importance as a comprehensive way of understanding economic issues. And yet it could now be returning to the forefront, given the strong interactions between politics and economics. At the international level, we cannot yet predict what Mr. Trump’s presidency will really be like, but we can expect a deep political shift, with consequences for American economic policies. Besides, the electoral cycle will continue in Europe, starting with the Italian referendum in December. To state the obvious, the first certainty is that we are facing a lot of uncertainty. How will Europe overcome this? I sincerely hope not by “waiting and seeing”, but rather by sticking to and building further on its three shared economic and social assets: its single currency, its single market, and its unique social model. We must actively build on them, and not lazily rest on our laurels: pride should not be confused with complacency. First, with the euro, we share a solid currency which is recognised worldwide. The vast majority of euro area citizens are attached to it (68% according to the latest Eurobarometeri). Moreover, in a world of uncertainty, European monetary policy is a yardstick of stability.

But inflation gradually became too high for the dollar to maintain its gold value and at the beginning of the 1970s the system unravelled. Inflation increased and was unstable in most western countries until well into the 1980s. For a 50 krone note in the 1970s, we could buy ten litres of milk and ten loaves of bread. The value of money fell sharply when inflation surged and later in the 1990s – after the period of inflation – we had to pay five 50 krone notes for the same goods. The metal standard and fixed exchange rate regime were not able to safeguard the value of money. This is why most countries have given the central bank and the interest rate the role of securing low and stable inflation. This ensures that money – which is so cheap to produce – retains its value. In order to avoid setting aside the objective of price stability, the central bank must be independent in interest rate setting as it may be tempting to seek new objectives and tasks when inflation has been anchored for a time. It would not be the first time that there would be excessive optimism with regard to managing the economy. In the early 1970s – after 20 years of solid growth – we believed the ghost of unemployment had definitively been laid to rest and new objectives were drawn up.
He hoped that the Bretton Woods twins, Master Fund and Miss Bank, would receive three gifts from their fairy-godmothers: first, a many-coloured coat “as a perpetual reminder that they belong to the whole world”; second, a box of vitamins to encourage “energy and a fearless spirit, which does not shelve and avoid difficult issues, but welcomes them and is determined to solve them”; third, “a spirit of wisdom … so that their approach to every problem is absolutely objective”. Keynes warned the delegates that this was asking a great deal: “there is scarcely any enduringly successful experience yet of an international body which has fulfilled the hopes of its progenitors”. So he hoped that the malicious fairy would not bring its curse upon the twins: “you two brats shall grow up politicians; your every thought and act shall have an arrière-pensée; everything you determine shall not be for its own sake or on its own merits but because of something else". And if the IMF were to become politicised then, Keynes said, it would be best for the twins "to fall into an 2 eternal slumber, never to waken or be heard of again in the courts and markets of Mankind". Sixty years on, the wisdom of Keynes's position at Savannah is clear. In recent years, the critics have charged that all three of the virtues of universalism, energy and wisdom have been lacking in the IMF. And if not in a deep slumber, then the Fund has appeared drowsy.

They had the vision to put in place international institutions that might help prevent the disintegration of the open trading system that they saw as necessary to a revival of economic prosperity. We have not had to go through a time of economic disaster. We have had the opportunity to experience an extraordinary flowering of the international trading system, and the entry into that of the world’s two largest populations. The expansion of trade, the rise in the number of qualified people entering the world’s labour force, and the growing realisation that we can all benefit from trade has raised living standards and provided us with opportunities to reduce poverty around the world. That should make it easier, not more difficult, to design international institutions to sustain those developments. We will have only ourselves to blame if we fail to live up to that challenge and simply allow the IMF to evolve through a series of ever more bland communiqués and meaningless statements. Today, I have tried to challenge the thinking behind the slow progress in reforming the IMF. But that should not be interpreted as any criticism of the extraordinarily talented and committed people who work for the Fund. On the contrary, the responsibility for reform lies fairly and squarely with the shareholders – the member countries. Nor are the issues an arcane exercise in international finance. As Governor Deshmukh said in his speech in Savannah, agreements on the international monetary system and on trade go hand in hand.
Reflecting the weakness in aggregate demand, the output gap remains negative and the Albanian economy is still characterised by incomplete utilisation of production capacities. The lower economic growth and poor performance of the employment index have led to weaker pressures on increasing wages and production costs. Also, the sluggish aggregate demand keeps profit margins low. Weak pressures from production costs and downward inflation expectations were the main drivers lowering core and headline inflation rates. In parallel, imported inflation was contained due to low inflation rates internationally and the exchange rate stability. This situation is expected to continue in the quarters ahead. The macroeconomic analysis, updated with information for the first two months of the year, suggests low economic growth during this period. Private investments and consumption remained weak because of the low confidence of economic agents, slowdown of disposable income, tight lending terms, and presence of spare production capacities. Trade deficit expanded 3.6% in January, primarily as a result of declining exports, in contrast to a month earlier, when it expanded due to unusual import growth. “Minerals, fuels and electric energy” were the main drivers of contraction in exports of goods. On the other hand, exports of goods in the category of “Textiles and footwear” increased. In response to enhanced competitiveness and shifting of financial and human resources towards exporting sectors, export growth should be one of the main pillars of Albania’s economic development in the period ahead.

In the near future, the exporting sector of the economy is expected to be sustained by improved demand in Albania’s trading partners. Fiscal indicators were characterised by higher revenues and lower expenditures during the first two months of the year. As of February, budget revenues increased 4.9%, year on year, whereas expenditure and budget deficit fell 9% and 82%, respectively. Expenditures  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  decreased mainly due to downward capital spending, while revenues upped thanks to increase in tax revenues. These developments have determined a consolidating trend of the fiscal policy and have kept its impact on aggregate demand and economic growth subdued. Excluding the effect of payment arrears, the consolidating trend of the fiscal policy is expected to be maintained over the medium-term period. As always, the Bank of Albania endorses and encourages measures for fiscal consolidation, considering them as necessary for reducing risk premia in the economy and maintaining the country’s medium and long-term stability. Moreover, the Government will pay a part of its arrears to businesses within this budget year. This development is expected to improve the private sector’s balance sheets and demand. In response to the easing monetary policy and the liquidity situation, financial markets have been calm, in terms of trading, showing a tendency to cut interest rates. The latest key interest rate cut in February is transmitted to short-term interest rates in the money market.