samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
If we strip out back payments made by firms to fill pension deficits, the labour share shows greater signs of falling, if only gradually, over time (Chart 12). 8 9 10  IMF (2017). IMF (2017). IMF (2017). 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7  A more stripped-down measure of the labour share, which better tracks workers’ purchasing power, is wages and salaries (Chart 12). That measure has fallen by around 1 percentage point since 1990. This picture is more striking still if we look at different cohorts. For workers aged over 55, their share of income has doubled from 4% in the early 1990s to 8% today. For workers aged 16-34, their wage share has fallen from 15% to 12% over the same period. The “lost decade” for young people has been particularly pronounced. Finally, aggregate movements in the labour share can obscure important pay dynamics at the sectoral level. Different sectors of the economy are affected to differing degrees by changes in the form of employment, technology, unionisation and company concentration. As I discuss below, these sectoral data provide a clearer picture of the significant impact of slow-moving structural factors on workers’ pay power. (a)  Job Market Flows  The quickest way to secure a pay rise is by moving job. That is quite sobering if, like me, you have never moved job.

Singapore aims to peak its carbon emissions around 2030 and achieve net zero as soon as viable after 2050. Climate change presents two significant risks to the financial system. Physical risk arises from the impact of climate-related natural catastrophes and widespread environmental degradation. Transition risk arises from the process of adjustment to an environmentally sustainable economy, including changes in public policies, disruptive technological developments, and shifts in consumer and investor preferences. At the same time, the financial sector plays a key role in the fight against climate change. Finance is key to unlocking a sustainable future. It can support the transition to a less carbon intensive economy and channel capital to green technologies and infrastructure. This is why MAS is incorporating climate change and environmental sustainability across all its functions. As central bank and financial regulator, MAS is working with financial institutions to strengthen the Singapore financial sector’s resilience against environmental risks. 1/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  As promoter of Singapore as an international financial centre, we are working with financial institutions to develop a vibrant green finance ecosystem to support Asia’s transition to a low-carbon future. As the guardian of Singapore’s official foreign reserves, MAS is integrating climate risks and opportunities into its investment framework. As an organisation, MAS is reducing its own carbon and environmental footprint to support Singapore’s broader climate ambitions and commitments. A FINANCIAL SECTOR RESILIENT AGAINST ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS Let me begin with strengthening financial sector resilience against environmental risks.
As my colleague Daleep Singh has said, we have adhered to three principles: robust and proactive transparency, strong and effective corporate governance, and accountability to our stakeholders.18 The New York Fed's staff has worked hard—and sometimes around the clock—to give effect to these principles. I am proud of my colleagues, and continue to be humbled and inspired by their deep knowledge of their fields, their brilliant creativity, and their selfless commitment to the Fed's mission—notwithstanding many personal hardships. Reflections on the Fed's Pandemic Response The Fed's work is ongoing, but it is worth pausing to reflect on lessons learned from our experience so far. The extent of the Fed's efforts raises legitimate questions about the role of the nation's central bank. Some "Fed watchers" have opined that the Fed "has effectively shifted from lender of last resort for banks to a commercial banker of last resort for the broader economy. "19 I don't know if I would go that far. The "lender of last resort" function—framed definitively by Walter Bagehot in the late nineteenth century—is not the Federal Reserve's only purpose. As I mentioned earlier, the Fed's job is to support the "U.S. economy overall." The Fed's monetary policy https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2020/hel200625  1/4  The Federal Reserve’s Pandemic Response - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK  mandate, for example, addresses the national employment and inflation objectives. The Fed runs a payment system, FedWire, on which the global economy depends for clearing U.S. dollar transactions.

And the Fed regulates and supervises financial institutions so that, each and together, they safely match savers and borrowers in the real economy. I sometimes think that theories or expectations of central banking depart from reality. This may be unavoidable. The best theories are simple. The reality of central banking is complicated. The Fed is a complex entity governed by numerous statutes that have changed many times in the last 100 years—and are still changing. The Federal Reserve is not just a concept. It is a creation of Congress. Its job is what Congress tells it to do—to adhere as closely as possible to the will of Congress. Of course, Congress's instructions sometimes leave room for interpretation and discretion. For example, Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act allows the Board of Governors to provide credit during "unusual and exigent circumstances." What are those? And how do we know when circumstances cease to be unusual and exigent? Theories can help resolve these ambiguities and guide the judgment of policymakers. Other times, Congress is clear, but its instructions do not fit neatly into theories of central banking. In designing its Section 13(3) facilities, the Board of Governors coordinated its policy decisions with the Department of the Treasury. This was required by law.
With the coming into force of the Payment Card Reform Framework on 1 July 2015, the cost of accepting debit cards has been made more affordable through a fivefold reduction in the interchange fees from about 1.00% to 0.21%. Concurrently, the industry has also committed to invest about RM1.1 billion to enhance the payment card infrastructure over the next five years. This would comprise efforts to expand the number of payment card terminals, adopt PIN-based verification for enhanced security and roll out contactless debit cards for greater transaction efficiency. The industry should capitalise on the lower interchange fees and the Market Development Fund created under the Payment Card Reform Framework to expand the number of payment card terminals among lower tier merchants. Additionally, the industry should leverage on the roll-out of contactless debit cards to promote the use of debit cards to displace cash. In this regard, an industry-wide promotional campaign should be launched in a coordinated manner focusing on educating and incentivising cardholders to use their ATM cards as debit cards to make purchases instead of making ATM cash withdrawals. Financial institutions should also review the effectiveness of the promotional campaigns from time to time and make the necessary adjustments to ensure the intended outcomes are attained. 3. Fostering synergistic collaboration between MyClear and financial institutions  Synergistic collaboration between MyClear and financial institutions is critical as investments in technology are expensive.

The constant need to invest in key payment infrastructures in this country is in line with technological advancements and the changing needs of consumers and businesses. In this regard, MyClear should be responsible to facilitate the pooling of resources and adoption of new technology to expand the network reach and resilience of its payment infrastructures. Financial institutions on the other hand, should leverage on the common platform to compete by providing innovative and value-adding products to their customers. Such synergistic collaboration will prevent unnecessary duplication and wastage  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  of resources in the payment landscape. It shall reduce the cost of transactions over the long run. Modernising payment and settlement infrastructure MyClear is embarking on a multi-year programme to modernise Malaysia’s payment infrastructure. In the area of retail payments, a new real-time Retail Payments Platform will be developed to serve both as a catalyst and enabler for innovative payments in Malaysia. As for large value payments, the Real-Time Gross Settlement System or RENTAS is currently being enhanced to adopt a multi-currency system that leverages on the SWIFT messaging standard. The enhanced RENTAS would cater for multiple messaging formats including the internationally-recognised ISO 20022 which supports the transmission of richer remittance data and facilitates interconnectedness with other economies within the region. Enhancing capital market infrastructures With respect to the capital market, Malaysia’s debt securities market is the largest in Southeast Asia.
A loosening of the fiscal stance stemming from an unbalanced reform strategy not only jeopardises fiscal consolidation but, from a longer-term perspective, also reduces the potential for positive supply effects of fiscal reform on economic growth. 2. Publication of staff macroeconomic projections by the ECB  I shall now turn to the envisaged publication of staff macroeconomic projections by the ECB. I have previously stated in my remarks to the European Parliament that the ECB could commence the publication of macroeconomic projections during the course of this year. I am now happy to inform you that our preparations have been concluded. As was announced on 16 November, the Governing Council has decided to commence publication of its staff macroeconomic projections in the December issue of the ECB Monthly Bulletin. This decision reflects the Governing Council’s conviction - as reflected in practice - that the information and analysis underlying its monetary policy decisions should be shared with the public to the greatest extent possible, subject, of course, to the necessary BIS Review 109/2000  2  preparation. Provision of this information will further enhance transparency and lead to a better understanding of the single monetary policy. The ECB has decided that the time has come to publish its staff macroeconomic projections, which are already used as an input into the assessment of the outlook for price stability. These are prepared twice a year by Eurosystem staff as one of a number of inputs into the deliberations of the Governing Council.

In the period from July to September 2000, the three-month average of M3 growth stood at 5.4%, above the reference value of 4½%. However, some indicators suggest that over recent months a moderation in monetary growth has been occurring. Let me now turn, within the second pillar, to the prospects for economic growth in the euro area, as these represent a key factor affecting the outlook for price stability in the medium term. The latest estimate by Eurostat for the second quarter of 2000 indicated a real increase in GDP of 0.8%. The pace of new job creation has remained high and the unemployment rate currently stands at 9.0%, a level not seen since mid-1992. Some monthly indicators suggest that some moderation in real GDP growth might have occurred in the second half of this year, mainly as a result of the negative impact of the recent increases in oil prices on domestic income. However, by contrast with previous periods of strong oil price rises, the euro area economy is now less dependent on oil. This should help to prevent any sustained negative effect on confidence. There are therefore good reasons to remain confident with regard to growth prospects. On the external side, euro area export growth should benefit further from the expansion of the global economy. Considering these factors together, the growth dynamic in the euro area can be expected to be maintained in the coming years.
Also, it is noteworthy that, during this time, lending in the domestic currency has increased; this is translated into a success for both the transmission of the monetary policy and the soundness of the financial system and the private sector. The monetary policy decisions have helped the economy by not causing adverse effects on the banking system soundness indicators. An accommodative monetary policy, potentially, has side effects; but, they have not materialised thanks to the duly and prudential management of the monetary policy intervention. In our daily work, we pay special attention to maintaining a sound system and our decisions take into account potential implications on the banking system at home. In perspective, the short-term shocks of the past have turned into stable equilibriums in the medium term and the non-traditional policies, which are turning into conventional instruments of policy making in our partners, have encouraged a new behaviour among economic and financial agents. These changes affect the Bank of Albania’s ability to stimulate the economy and mitigate the effects from economic shocks during times of difficulties that may arise in the future. The researches will assess whether we are experiencing a new equilibrium or other problems exist in the transmission of accommodative policies, and whether the resilience and reactions against these shocks remain similar to the pre-crisis periods.

intends to establish a unit comprising officers with specialised skills in the areas of law, forensic and investigation skills and accounting, to liaise and assist law enforcement authorities on related investigations. This Unit will also deal with matters relating to unauthorised deposit taking institutions. In addition, the Central Bank will continue to  Our objective is to reduce the overall risk  enhance awareness of the general public  of the financial sector by maintaining  on the dangers of engaging in  fewer companies but a stronger sector  unauthorised investment schemes, and  to avoid any contagion effect. As such,  institutions authorised by the Central  with the proposed changes to the  Bank to accept deposits from the  existing regulatory framework, we  general public through an effective  Central Bank of Sri Lanka – ROAD MAP 2017  22  public awareness campaign involving  surveillance, which includes: (1)  mass media. collecting macroeconomic and financial  Primary dealers play a vital role in trading of government securities and market making. Further, there is high potential to deepen the debt securities market in the country. Hence, we need to have a clearly stated policy framework for Primary Dealers. This will further enhance the safety of investments in the government securities market.
Here I am referring to those facilities that provided funding at maturities of up to three months to particular sets of firms, such as the primary dealers, money market mutual funds, commercial paper issuers, and depository institutions. 2 Just today, we conducted the last operation associated with those facilities,  1  The views expressed here are not necessarily shared by the Federal Open Market Committee or by other members of the staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2  In discussing these facilities, I am not including any provision of credit intended to support specific institutions, including those associated with the Maiden Lane LLCs. I include the Term Securities Lending Facility in with short-term lending facilities, even though it provided the market with Treasury securities rather than reserves, because it was often used to find funding for positions in less liquid securities. BIS Review 39/2010  1  meaning that all of the short-term liquidity facilities that were introduced during the crisis have now effectively been retired. The only special liquidity program that remains active is the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which I consider to differ from the short-term liquidity programs because it provides funding for up to five years. With the wind-down of these short-term liquidity facilities, it is a good time to look back and assess their performance. The bottom line here is simple: these programs were an unquestionable success.

The strategy to be employed has not been fully decided,  6  BIS Review 39/2010  but recent speeches by FOMC members and the recent FOMC minutes have begun to convey some of the possibilities. Many of the potential steps described seem to guard against the risks involved. For example, reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet through redemptions for now will produce a gradual adjustment that will be easier for the markets to digest. In addition, steps taken to drain reserves ahead of policy tightening may best ensure the success of interest on reserves at influencing other short-term interest rates. Overall, an approach along these lines should help to ensure a smooth exit from the current accommodative stance of monetary policy. Moreover, if the Fed’s intentions are well communicated to the financial market participants, they too should be fully prepared and in the best possible shape for navigating this exit. BIS Review 39/2010  7
One problem with these compensation strategies is their symmetry, understood as the central bank’s commitment to react equally to below-target inflation deviations (which, as we have seen, are the really problematic ones in the current setting) and above-target deviations; i.e., following a period of above target inflation, the central bank would have to reduce inflation below the target, which would require depressing economic activity and employment. Given that a commitment of this type may not be fully credible, it has recently been proposed that these strategies should be temporary: the central bank would normally operate under a traditional inflation targeting regime, but, in the event of a crisis with low inflation and interest rates close to the lower bound, the strategy would be to compensate in future for the “lost inflation” in this period.11 In recent years, various central banks have initiated monetary policy strategy reviews (including the ECB and the US Federal Reserve). In fact, the Federal Reserve has recently announced the main results of its strategic review, which, among other changes, has led to the adoption of a new average inflation targeting strategy, albeit with an undefined timeframe for calculating the average inflation that is to be stabilised. 11  See, for example, Bernanke et al. (2019).

Similarly, bank refinancing operations, such as the TLTROs, can reduce banks’ funding costs and, ultimately, the cost of bank loans, thus stimulating aggregate demand and inflation.7 However, even though these measures have been highly effective in the euro area in present and recent circumstances, they do not completely eliminate the limits on the degree of potential monetary stimulus deriving from the existence of the lower interest rate bound. In consequence, central banks have introduced other tools with which to smooth that limit, the most common of these being forward guidance.8 This enables the central bank to offer guidance to the market as to how interest rates will evolve, or are expected to evolve, in future. For instance, in its monetary policy announcements, the ECB links the question of holding its interest rates at their present levels, or lower, to inflation developments in the euro area. In this manner, the ECB seeks to convey to financial markets, and to society at large, the conditions that would have to be met in order to begin to raise interest rates. Where short-term interest rates are close to their lower bound, forward guidance may stimulate the economy insofar as the central bank undertakes in a credible manner to tolerate inflation over the target level once the economic situation thus permits.9 Given that the real interest rate is the nominal rate stripping out inflation expectations, if the central bank is able to raise these expectations, it can reduce the real interest rate today, even if nominal rates remain constant.
In the Czech Republic, depositors very soon started searching for higher interest rates, or higher yields, in smaller “saving unions” with inherently riskier business models, as these institutions are also covered by the DGS and suddenly became to a given limit riskless for savers due to the disappearance of co-payment. Some of these institutions had to leave the market recently, eating up large sums from the pre-paid funds of the domestic DGS. I’m fairly sure that without this moral hazard behaviour induced by the harmonisation of the DGS rules the impacts on the system would not have been so pronounced. Or take another example. The regulatory debate on financial benchmarks in the world (and within the EU) influences sometimes adversely the willingness of banks to contribute to the benchmarks also in the markets where no improper behaviour of contributors has been proven or even detected so far. So it is great to harmonise and to coordinate. But you always have to bear in mind that you should not harmonise and coordinate towards rules that are riskier than the previous uncoordinated rules were on average. The third constraint is the one Claudio Borio of the BIS calls the “time inconsistency of financial stability policies”.

Inflationary pressures stemming from high productivity growth in the tradable sector of fast-growing economies – known as the Balassa-Samuelson effect – have also been cited as one of the main reasons for higher inflation in catching-up economies, such as those of the accession countries. A closer examination of inflation developments in the accession countries shows, however, that the Balassa-Samuelson effect alone cannot explain the persistence of inflation differentials vis-à-vis the euro area. Moreover, notwithstanding its importance, the Balassa-Samuelson effect should not be overstated when explaining current inflation rates in the accession countries. Indeed, most empirical studies estimate the Balassa-Samuelson effect within a range of 1 to 2 percentage points. This does not mean, however, that the pursuit of real convergence conflicts with further progress on disinflation. On the contrary, the process of disinflation should be advanced in the accession countries, at a pace determined by the overall economic situation and in particular by the need for these countries to increase real convergence. The Maastricht inflation criterion, which will not be revised to take into account any possible Balassa-Samuelson effect, should not be seen as an immediate requirement for these countries, but rather as a medium-term objective for central banks. As the experience of some euro area participants shows, progress in nominal and real convergence can be, and should be, pursued in parallel.