samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The scaling back of tariffs has stopped, and new tariff barriers are being erected. At the same time, the WTO’s position has weakened, making it more difficult both to resolve disagreements and carry out needed regulatory reforms. Last year was marked by trade tensions between the United States and China. The United States raised tariffs on a range of imports, and China retaliated in kind. Protectionism means reduced growth capacity, putting at risk the gains brought about by open borders. If the world enters a new period of rising trade barriers, a prime engine of growth and development may lose its momentum. The most serious consequences of new tariff barriers will be faced by developing countries. The WTO has more than 160 member countries. Many of the new countries have experienced rapid growth. Substantial technological and economic gaps have been reduced. Living standards have improved for large population groups. But not everyone has reaped the gains associated with globalisation and trade. Some have lost. Inequalities have widened. This explains to a large extent the opposition to globalisation and international cooperation. Chart: China exports more advanced products The current trade tensions are also about power and influence. Many Asian countries are emerging as important drivers of the digital economy. China is rapidly adopting artificial intelligence and using big data. Exports are shifting from simple to more complex products. China is now the world’s next largest economy1 and is competing with advanced western countries in many arenas.

Recent crisis indicated that we all sail in the same waters and we may resist the waves, only if we confront these  2  BIS Review 30/2009  challenges together. Export is a generator of foreign currency flows needed so much for the currency stability, which is related to all other balances, financial system’s stability also included. Under these conditions, we should be aware that a joint action, of national importance, deeply patriotic for the values and future of the country is needed. Make the market more lively, more competitive and more innovative. Now the financial infrastructure is complete and it is up to you to use it more efficiently. It is the time to try to seek other balances in terms of foreign currency flows into the economy. Remittances have been important for a long time. They were the largest foreign currency serum in the economy. However, we should be aware that other indicators, such as exports and foreign direct investments will be prior items in the total foreign currency flows in the future. This should be realised by everyone and based on this ground, let us work together for the future. Dear participants, International initiatives are in the process. The Berlin meeting was extremely important in this regard. There was broadly discussed and converged into the idea that there is room for more coordinated actions, and protectionism is not the answer to the crisis. The London meeting will make new steps in this regard.
4  BIS Review 67/2006  Considering the fact that seasonal price movements are determinant in consumer prices, it will be helpful to analyze the Special CPI Aggregates (SCA), excluding seasonal products, with respect to the course of inflation. The decline in the annual rate of increases in the SCA-E* index that has been continuing since the beginning of 2005, which is calculated by excluding seasonal products from the SCA-E index excluding energy, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products, had slowed down by the first quarter of 2006. On the other hand, it is observed that the downward trend in the seasonally adjusted SCA–D* index, which is calculated by excluding energy, unprocessed food, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and gold, continued in the first quarter of the year as well and the main trend of inflation was downwards (Graph 6). Graph 6. CPI and Special CPI Aggregates (E* and D*) (Annual Percentage Change) 10  9  8  7  6 CPI E* 5  D* (Seasonally Adjusted)  Mar-06  Feb-06  Jan-06  Dec-05  Nov-05  Oct-05  Sep-05  Aug-05  Jul-05  Jun-05  May-05  Apr-05  Mar-05  Feb-05  Jan-05  4  E*: CPI excluding energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and seasonal products D*: CPI excluding energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, unprocessed food and gold Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Producer prices rose by 2.48 percent in the first quarter of 2006.

The index produced by the aggregation of indicators relating to investments also points to an ongoing upsurge in machineryequipment investments (Graph 12). Moreover, the high-rated increase in long-term credit use from abroad during the January-February period compared to the same period of the previous year indicates that investment-originated growth prevailed in the first quarter of 2006 as well (Annex Graph 1). Graph 11. Fixed Capital Investments (Annual Percentage Change)  Graph 12. Private Sector Machinery-Equipment Investments and Investment Index (MBYAT)  70  Public  60  Private  Total  50  8000  104  7000  102  6000  100  5000  40  98  4000 96  3000  -10  2006-I  2005-II  2004-III  2003-  2003-I  2002-II  2000-  0  2001-III  90 2000-I  92  0 1999-II  1000 1997-I  10  94  1997-  20  2000  1998-III  30  Private Sector Machinery-Equipment Investment (Constant pricesseasonally adj.) -20 04-I  04-II  04-III 04-IV  05-I  05-II  05-III 05-IV  MBYAT (Left axis)  Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. 8  BIS Review 67/2006  Despite rapid growth in the total final domestic demand and the GDP, the current production tendency signifies a level that does not impose any pressure on prices. Hence, estimates for the output gap indicate that recent trend in economic growth does not pose a threat with respect to inflation (Graph 13).
This is to say that although the economies of East Asia have recovered and are on the path of sustained growth, regional financial cooperation needs to continue and should substantially move forward. The rationale for this is clear: First, financial cooperation will lead to a faster pace and a more comprehensive development of the region’s financial markets. Such development is crucial for sustaining the momentum of intra-regional trade and investment, a factor that has been instrumental for the region’s recent economic success. Going forward, this momentum of intra regional trade and investment has a potential to become a major source of growth for the region, through the promotion the region’s domestic demand. Second, with the globalized flows of finance and capital, maintaining financial markets stability is a key condition for preserving macroeconomic stability. To achieve this, in addition to the pursuance of sound economic and financial policies, the Asian region also needs to have its own financial arrangement. Such an arrangement will help ensure an orderly and stable financial environment such that any emerging vulnerabilities would not pose serious risks to the region’s financial markets and  1/3  economies. Important in this context, I believe, is for the region to have its own financing facility that draws on the region’s own financial strength and resources. With such a facility, there would be greater confidence amongst policy makers in the region that we do have the capability and the capacity to look after our markets and economies if there were to be a major financial distress.

I’m looking forward to his insights and I know they will be the catalyst for some rich discussion. Please join me in welcoming John Dugan. 1 The information in this speech on the history of the New York Fed’s headquarters building comes from About  the Building on the New York Fed’s website. 2 Citigroup, Third Quarter 2019 Results and Key Metrics, October 15, 2019. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Secondly, my prejudice is to believe that regulatory structure should follow market structure, rather than the other way round. Regulators should seek to respond to changing markets which, in turn, respond to changing customer demand and new product availability, rather than seeking to dictate either. So we should always ask ourselves whether the regulatory framework we adopt makes sense to market participants, rather than requiring them to structure their business to fit in with some governmentally imposed view of the way product delivery should be organised. But I recognise that, in practice, we cannot avoid constant attention to the maintenance of the regulatory framework. Firstly, because while good structure will not necessarily generate effectiveness, a faulty, out of date framework will certainly make it very hard for regulators to do their jobs well. And, of course, the market is not in an ‘original condition’. The financial markets we have now are heavily conditioned by the legislative and regulatory framework within which they have grown up. That is particularly true in the United States. It is hard to imagine that, absent Glass-Steagall, regulation Q and all the rest, the financial landscape in North America would look as it does today. So I conclude that the debate on regulatory structure should be a constant dialogue between the markets and the regulators, but with a prejudice in favour of the former. Our ultimate task as regulators is to ensure that markets work efficiently, and in the interests of consumers.

In respect to the conditions prevailing in Malaysia, Malaysia's strong economic fundamentals, with low rate of inflation, strong external balance, low level of foreign debt, strong reserves levels and strengthened banking sector have provided strong support for the pegged exchange rate regime. Malaysia also has sufficient flexibility to undertake adjustments on all sectors of the economy to remain competitive. The diversified economic structure, the enhanced mobility of capital and labour has also provided Malaysia with increased resilience to weather external shocks. Malaysia also had the flexibility of policy to respond to the circumstances. In all cases, when an exchange rate regime has failed, it was not due to the regime itself, but due to the weaknesses in the economy and the financial system. Having undergone significant transformation and emerging with a much strengthened set of fundamentals, the Malaysian and regional economies are better able to absorb the volatility in the exchange rates. Countries are also more cognizant of the costs of currency depreciation, particularly on confidence. As an example, comparing the response of regional currencies during the two episodes of yen depreciation, one in the early part of 2001 and the other towards the end of 2001 and early 2002, it is clear that the response of regional exchange rates was significantly more muted during the most recent episode.
Given the cross-cutting nature of climate change and the wide range of risks that it poses to the banking system, I would be hesitant to rely on any single measure or tool as a “silver bullet”. Instead, I think it is crucial that we remain open-minded and consider the full spectrum of tools available when it comes to mitigating climate risks for banks. Indeed, this philosophy underpins the design and rationale of the Basel III framework, which is based on a “multiple metrics” approach. This approach is based on the fact that each regulatory measure has strengths and weakness and therefore the multiple metrics framework is considered more robust to arbitrage and erosion over time, as each measure offsets the shortcomings and adverse incentives of the others. And this applies equally when it comes to climate-related financial risks and stress testing. Of course, we have to acknowledge that stress tests are a powerful and important measure in our toolkit, as they allow authorities to assess the resilience of banks to future adverse scenarios. And also because, given the time horizon of climate-related financial risks, we cannot rely on historical data to gauge the risks to banks. So stress tests can complement the backward-looking nature of our Pillar 1 risk-weighted framework, which is calibrated based on empirical data, and explore different scenarios. 5/6  But, at the same time, we have to acknowledge that stress tests can handle “traditional” financial risks by drawing on the experience from previous financial crises.

Finally on regulation, I note with regret that far too often the discussion appears to focus solely on the notion of introducing so-called “green supporting factors” to seemingly “incentivise” banks to favour greener loans and investments. As I mentioned previously,  4/6  the Committee will not pursue such an approach, but will rather be led by its mandate. Accordingly, we will be focused solely on the risk profile of different asset classes when it comes to climate change. To the extent that there is clear and rigorous empirical analysis pointing to different climate risk profiles across different asset classes, the Committee will then consider whether additional regulatory measures are warranted to mitigate such risks. More generally, there are a lot of ongoing initiatives globally, and we are acutely aware of the potential fragmentation when it comes to different supervisory and regulatory initiatives, which in turn would undermine the global level-playing field. As such, it is crucial that there is broad agreement among the larger set of global public and private-sector bodies when it comes to issues such as consistent definitions, taxonomies and approaches. These are crucial prerequisites to any subsequent disclosure, supervisory or regulatory initiatives pursued by the Committee. Therefore, it is extremely important to maintain global coordination and seek global measures where relevant. Stress testing as a silver bullet?
Pongpen Ruengvirayudh: Thailand in 2014 – recent developments and challenges ahead Keynote address by Ms Pongpen Ruengvirayudh, Deputy Governor for Monetary Stability of the Bank of Thailand, at the Thomson Reuters FX Community Forum 2014, Bangkok, 18 February 2014. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, 1. It is a distinct pleasure to be back here again and I would like to thank Thomson Reuters for the invitation. To the winners of this year’s FX awards, I would like to congratulate you on your notable achievements. And to the rest of the market participants, I would like to express my thanks for your continuing contribution to the development of the Thai foreign exchange market. 2. Much has changed both at home and aboard since I gave an opening address at this event last year. On the external front, the US Federal Reserve’s planned scaling-down of its QE program has sparked turbulence in the emerging markets as investors continue to speculate on the Fed’s exact tapering timeline. On the domestic front, the absence of political solutions continues to subdue public and private spending, with unavoidable repercussions on overall growth outlook. Certainly, the interplay between these recent developments will have profound implications for the Thai economy to some extent going forward. For this reason, I would like to take this opportunity to share with you my views on these important developments and the potential challenges they pose to the Thai economy. 3. Let me start with the developments on the external front.

As you remember, around this period of last year, one of the issues that had attracted a lot of public attention was the continued influx of fund flows into the emerging markets including Thailand. But this theme has suddenly changed when the US Federal Reserve signaled in May its intention to scale down, and eventually terminate, its asset purchasing program. The signaling immediately sparked turbulence in capital and currency markets in emerging economies and certainly serves as a recurring reminder that the linkages in the international economy are as psychological as they are mechanical. From June to August, Thailand, like other economies in the region, continued to witness further episodes of outflows as investors continued to reform their expectations towards the exact tapering timeline. 4. In the recent months, turbulence in the markets seems to have somewhat been moderated. This possibly reflects the fact that much has been priced in during the earlier outflow episodes, as well as the fact that it has been clearer to the markets now that any further tapering by the Fed will likely be done in an incremental manner. This is, however, not to say that short-term volatilities are no longer with us. The challenges going forward for policymakers are, therefore, not only to have the right set of policy responses in place to deal with these short-term volatilities, but also to make sure that all the market participants are well prepared for the scenarios that could be expected. 5.
Let us make an assessment. One of the reasons they brought forward was that Romania's fiscal policy is procyclical. Well, although we are in an election year, we have reasons to believe that the 2008 budget deficit will stay below 3 percent. Moreover, the central bank has additionally tightened its monetary policy in order to offset the insufficient restrictiveness of the fiscal policy. Another reason is that income policy is much too expansionary, and this too is our concern here at the BNR. We have sent repeated warnings in this respect, the more so as a possible offsetting via further tightening of the monetary policy could not only prove ineffective, but also counterproductive, both leading to a deterioration of external competitiveness. Reestablishing a long-term balance between income growth and productivity dynamics is therefore a must. Finally, I saw in some papers that Romania would be downgraded because of its external liquidity position. This indicator is computed as a ratio between the country's international reserves and its overall foreign debt, both public and private, in the short-run. We have a sub-par ratio in Romania, as short-term external debt is higher than reserves. I believe this is also an overstatement, as Romania's international reserves are close to the upper limit of the optimal level if we take into account the other indicators, such as the ratio between reserves and imports. The short-term external debt is high indeed, but the bulk of it belongs to the private sector.

And out of this, loans taken by foreign-based banks operating in Romania from their parent undertakings abroad account for the largest share. We have started to address this issue by taking measures aimed at discouraging foreign currency-denominated loans. If that risk materialised and parent banks diminished their flows to Romania, the effect would be rather beneficial as it would remove the base for an unsustainable expansion of foreign currency-denominated credit which has been a headache for so many years. Therefore, I do not consider these arguments that solid to place Romania in a group of countries with high likelihood of witnessing hard landing. Do you think, therefore, that high economic growth in Romania will go on? I believe that Romania will see further economic growth in the coming years. A growth much closer to the potential which our experts had estimated at around 6 percent annually. It is true that, with weakening economic activity worldwide, especially in the EU which is our main trade partner, economic growth might be a bit slower than 6 percent. No doubt that economic growth will be affected by several factors next year, placing it over or below 6 percent: the oil price, the farming year, heightened efforts to develop the infrastructure and also to create conditions to boost labour productivity, the level of foreign investments, and so on. In any case, a 6 percent annual economic growth in the present context is a remarkable achievement.
In this regard, I am encouraged by the fact that non-bank e-money issuers are 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  targeting to increase their product penetration in these unserved segments since the banks are not servicing this particular segment. The QR code could be a catalyst to reach this group. To encourage QR code payment, avoid market fragmentation and broaden financial inclusion, Bank Negara Malaysia has issued an Interoperable Credit Transfer Framework (ICTF) for consultation. The ICTF aims to connect both banks and eligible non-bank e-money issuers to ensure reachability of bank accounts and e-money accounts. For the first time in our history, customers of both banks and non-banks will soon be able to transfer funds across the network seamlessly by just referencing the mobile number and IC numbers of the recipients or scanning the QR code of the recipients. In this regard, PayNet, the merged entity of MEPS and MyClear, as the operator of the country’s shared payment infrastructure would provide open and fair access to its clearing system and other shared payment utilities to both banks and eligible non-bank e-money issuers. This would enhance the network multiplier effects and foster better allocation of industry resources, as market players would be able to compete based on value-added services rather than on the basis of infrastructure. In addition, the Interoperable Credit Transfer Framework would level the playing field between banks and non-bank players, by subjecting them to risk management requirements that are proportionate to the nature, scale and complexity of their business activities.

In terms of analysis by socio-demographic groups, the survey results show that the monetary value in “old lek” is more frequently used by: (i) males; (ii) old-aged people; (iii) persons with a low-education level; (iv) unemployed persons in labour market; and (v) individuals with a low level of family income. These groups identified in the survey will be the focus in the projects of this awareness campaign for bringing to an end the use of the wrong term “old lek”. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Albania is launching this awareness campaign, which will extend in time and will aim at being a comprehensive one, affecting various groups of interest. In a medium-term period, and through various channels, we aim at knocking at the doors of every Albanian to uproot the terms “new” or “old”, by avoiding the confusion in the communication of prices and enhancing the correct reading of economic and financial indicators. Lek is the national currency in Albania, and the face value of each coin or banknote is the one written on it. Nevertheless, the fact that this incorrect use is inherited in the day-to-day speaking and has been resistant for more than 55 years, illustrates that the sporadic and isolated efforts of a solely institution to rectify this phenomenon are insufficient. A joint and coordinated commitment among central institutions of the country, media and other relevant actors is crucial in this regard.