This commitment reflects our willingness and determination to continue our financial inclusion efforts, which have enabled Morocco to become a regional benchmark, given the significant progress it has achieved in this regard. Such efforts have been reported by the World Bank and the IMF during their last Financial Sector Assessment Mission (FSAP) conducted in 2015. Ladies and gentlemen, Aware of the importance of data for designing relevant policies, Bank AlMaghrib has taken specific measures to develop, in line with international standards, a set of indicators which address two fundamental dimensions of financial inclusion: access to and use of financial services. As for the “quality” dimension, it is monitored for the time being through the Banking Services Price Index, which we developed in 2011 and which accurately reflects the cost and trend of banking services. Moreover, considering the weight of very small, small and medium enterprises (VSMEs) in our industrial fabric and their role in employment and wealth creation, we mobilized various public and private actors to establish an observatory for VSMEs. Founded in 2016, this observatory aims at (1) centralizing national and regional data and information on VSMEs, and (2) generating demographic, economic and financial information on economic sectors in order to allow stakeholders to respond more effectively to the issue of financing this specific category of companies. We have also established two credit bureaus, the first in 2007 and the second in 2016, in order to provide credit institutions and similar bodies with a common platform for the exchange of data.

In addition, it made our communication better aligned with our analytical framework and with theory. [Chart: Our interest rate forecast is conditional] Our forecast for the key policy rate 9 is presented in a panel together with forecasts for inflation and the output gap. The chart shows the forecasts in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, published just two weeks ago. There is substantial uncertainty associated with the projections, as illustrated by empirically based fan charts. The fan chart for the policy rate also illustrates the conditionality of the forecast: Although we control the key interest rate, the forecast for the interest rate is conditional on the outcomes for other variables, which are uncertain. [Chart: The system for monetary policy analysis and forecasting] When we decided to publish our own interest rate forecast, more transparency and documentation were required regarding our models. Our core policy model, NEMO (Norwegian Economy MOdel), is used as a starting point to derive our interest rate forecast. Over time, we have also established an apparatus for nowcasting 10 in order to steadily improve our assessment of initial conditions. In addition we collect information about the current economic situation from our regional network of business contacts. A set of models are used for cross checks and the assessment of exogenous assumptions. Our core policy model NEMO is a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for a small open economy. The model has many features that are similar to corresponding models in other central banks.