samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A number of recent statistical studies also imply this conclusion, suggesting that these recent episodes are a part of a broader pattern, even if they were exceptional in their scale. The following chart, using the output of a model estimated by Bank staff, is representative of the statistical analysis just referred to 1. The chart compares the estimated impact on UK equity and corporate debt asset price volatility of a given price shock in the post-crisis period relative to the pre-crisis period (Chart 3). Post crisis, both corporate debt volatility and equity market volatility appear to have become more responsive to a given price shock. This pattern is also apparent when the model is applied to a number of other important asset markets, including for example US-listed equities. Liquidity was clearly affected on each of 15 October and 15 January. Measures of trading volumes, which provide one metric of liquidity, were reportedly high on both days for most affected markets. But the ability of market participants to trade without affecting prices, or in some cases, to trade at all, was clearly very limited at various points on these days. The intra-day loss of liquidity was probably even starker on 15 January, from what we can tell, with widespread feedback that foreign exchange trading platforms stopped quoting Swiss francs for periods of time, while liquidity in the Swiss fixed income market was all but lost on the day and remained impaired for a few days.

Chris Salmon: Financial market volatility and liquidity – a cautionary note Speech by Mr Chris Salmon, Executive Director for Markets of the Bank of England, at the National Asset-Liability Management Europe symposium, London, 13 March 2015. *  *  *  I would like to thank Andrew Butcher, Jonathan Rand, Allison Parent, Joseph Noss, Olga Cielinska, Liam Crowley-Reidy, Sebastian Vismara, Lu Liu and Yuliya Baranova for their comments and contributions. As Executive Director for Markets at the Bank of England it is my job to manage the balance sheet, implementing various policy decisions that the Bank makes. I am also responsible for ensuring that the Bank extracts as much “market intelligence” from financial market developments as is possible to inform those decisions. But it’s not my job to set policy. Given that, my remarks will focus on the key insights we have drawn from financial market developments over the past year or so, in the context of what has been quite a dynamic period for monetary policy. But I will not speculate on the future course of policy by the Bank of England or any other central bank, nor the likely effectiveness of the different strategies employed by central banks to achieve their targets. And my punch line will reveal me to be the central banker that I am: there are reasons to be cautious. In particular, recent periods of financial market volatility suggest that there are reasons to be cautious about the robustness of liquidity in core financial markets.
15  I will return to the Fourth Industrial Revolution when discussing future growth. A Different Growth Story  As appetising as this growth story sounds, a reading of the history books make it difficult to swallow whole. It is certainly plausible to think that a divine coincidence of Hargreaves, Watts and Arkwrights, in roughly the same place at roughly the same time, resulted in a white-hot crucible of creativity. Indeed, we might be seeing that self-same crucible of creativity in Silicon Valley today. But the Industrial Revolution was hardly the first firing of that crucible. We have, through history, seen many episodes of furnace-hot crucibles of innovation, spanning most continents and most centuries. 16  Successful  cities, regions, countries, continents and empires of the recent and distant past were often built and sustained on ideas and innovation and accompanying investment in machines and people. The Roman Empire is a case in point. Some of you will remember the sequence from Monty Python’s The Life of Brian which begins with the rhetorical question: “What did the Romans ever do for us?” The sketch concludes: “But apart from better sanitation and medicine and education and irrigation and public health and roads and a freshwater system and baths and public order...what have the Romans done for us?”  You do not need to go that far back for examples of big ideas which had a transformative impact on industry and society.

35  Beyond age 18, there was in parallel a rise in both numbers and attendance at universities. For over six hundred years from 1209, England had only two universities – this one (Oxford) and the other one (Cambridge). It was not until the formation of University College London in 1829 that their duopoly was th  broken. And it was not until the 20 century that some of the other main cities – Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Bristol, Birmingham and Sheffield – established their own universities. 36  Today, there are around 130  universities in the UK as a whole. Participation rates in higher education have also undergone a secular rise and, latterly, a revolution. The share of young people attending university has increased from just over 3% in 1950 to over 8% in 1970, over 19% in 1990, 33% in 2000 and 49% by 2016. 37  Having been less than 5,000 in 1920, the number of first  degrees obtained at UK universities had increased to over 365,000 by 2016. 38  Through the rapid rise in school and university attendance, there was a revolution in cognitive skills in the workforce. That provided the human capital necessary to turn new technologies and machines into higher levels of productivity among companies, higher wages among workers and, ultimately, higher living standards among societies. Put differently, higher cognitive skills reduced the odds of a lengthy recessionary period of technological unemployment for many individuals and societies.
9 In particular, as discussed in the previous FSR, the two biggest banks made adjustments to their goodwill for an amount of over € billion in the first half of the year, and one of them made further adjustments to its deferred tax assets. Moreover, in its end-of-year accounts, one bank, as a result of its merger being approved, recorded a fair value correction for an amount exceeding € billion, in accordance with accounting regulations. 10 Net interest income and fees also showed year-on-year declines, of around 10%, while gains on financial assets and liabilities (up 35%) and operating expenses (a decline of almost 11%) were the only items that improved compared with the previous year. The fall in operating expenses led net operating income to increase slightly – by 0.7% – on the previous year. 11 The crisis affected unevenly those countries where Spanish banks' main exposures are to be found (GDP fell by 8.5% in Mexico, 4.5% in Brazil, 1.5% in Turkey, 3.5% in the United States and 9.9% in the United Kingdom). 4  adjustments made by the main Spanish banking groups to the goodwill of their UK and US subsidiaries, net ordinary earnings on external business stood above 80% of the total. Finally, it should also be emphasised that, as the stress tests performed by the Banco de España suggested, the effects of the crisis across banks have been uneven. In fact, the dispersion in various significant variables, in particular in impairment losses and results, increased.

In the harshest scenario considered in this exercise (which includes the cumulative fall of 5.7% in Spain’s GDP from 2020 to 2022), the decline in the CET1 ratio totalled 3.9 pp for significant institutions with an international presence, 4.6 pp for other significant institutions and 1.3 pp for institutions under the direct supervision of the Banco de España. Although this impact is significant and heterogeneity across banks is high, the Spanish banking sector as a whole duly evidenced notable resilience. The first year of the crisis: the importance of economic policy measures Despite this better starting position, the economic shock is unprecedented. Specifically, the 11 pp decline in the Spanish economy’s GDP in 2020, which was already considered in our latest stress test, far exceeded in a single year that simulated for three years in the stress tests conducted pre-crisis. That the banking sector has proved very resilient in the first phase of the crisis has been due not only to this better starting position, but also to the forcefulness of economic policy measures. These have covered all dimensions (monetary, financial and fiscal; national, European and global) and have acted in a complementary fashion. The ECB’s monetary policy, especially through our pandemic emergency purchase programme, has managed to maintain very accommodative financing conditions and to head off episodes of financial fragmentation. This monetary policy action has, in turn, enabled fiscal policy to be very forceful in mitigating the impact of the crisis on households and firms.
From this perspective the question of whether IT developments will lead to a temporary or permanent increase in the growth rate is of mainly academic interest. 2  The Economist, 23 September 2000  BIS Review 89/2000  2  The models can manage the “new economy”  1. Possible growth effects of IT A. B. Real GDP  Real GDP  time  time  In this context, it may be appropriate to dismiss some prejudices about macro-models. Many believe that these models will become unusable and outdated in a “new economy”, but that is not the case. When structural changes take place, forecasts based on historical estimates naturally become more uncertain. It is therefore reasonable to attach greater importance on these occasions to recent information and indicators. But the models need not be assessed on historical data. In actual fact the models’ parameters can be “calibrated” in such a way that their properties closely agree with the conception of the way the economy functions. This conception can, of course, be based on historical connections, but can equally well be based on information not contained in historical data. The models are in actual fact an important tool in testing whether historically assessed connections still apply and play an important role in signalling significant structural changes. What does the data in the USA say? What information does factual data actually give us?

Productivity during different economic expansions in the US USA: Non-farm productivity growth 5  4,5  annual increase in percent  4  3,5  3  2,5  2  1,5  1  0,5  0  1961-69 first 2 years  1982-90 year 3-4  year 5-6  1991-99 year 7 and thereafter  Source: Federal Reserve, Board of Governors. The background to this scepticism regarding the effects of IT on the rest of the economy lies in the “Solow paradox”. Nobel prizewinner Robert Solow stated in 1987 that “we see computers everywhere but not in the productivity statistics”. This was true until the mid-1990s. 3. Productivity by factor, USA 1980-99 3  average annual increase in percent  2 ,5  2  1 ,5  1  0 ,5  0  C a p ita l d e e p e nin g  La b o u r q ua lity  TF P  Source: Federal Reserve, Board of Governors. Now, however, the effects of computers are beginning to show in the statistics and this paradox could be dismissed. Stephen Oliner and Daniel Sichel at the Federal Reserve in Washington3 have made an in-depth analysis. This is based on the fact that the productivity trend has increased by just over 1 percentage point during the latter part of the 1990s and they conclude that IT actually accounts for most of the growth in productivity. Just under half of the total increase results from investments in IT.
When India diversifies its economic base in this way, its weight will increase, and its effect on the region will be felt more keenly. Despite several changes of governments and Prime Ministers, India and its leaders have continued on the reform path. A billboard at the 2006 WEF meeting in Davos proclaimed: “15 years, 6 Governments, 5 Prime Ministers, ONE DIRECTION”. The message is clear: reform and liberalisation in India are irreversible. China serves both as an example of what a large country can do and a compelling reason for India to grow faster to keep up. I believe that India will continue to grow at a high rate. I have met Indian leaders across the political spectrum. I am persuaded that they will continue to open up the economy and welcome foreign investments. Take the case of West Bengal in Kolkata, a state that has been under communist rule for 30 years. The Chief Minister, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, one of the politburo members of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), candidly said that he welcomed foreign investment, “whatever the colour – be it yellow, red or white”. 2  BIS Review 76/2007  Against this dynamic backdrop, individual ASEAN countries have been strengthening their economies and competitiveness. Collectively, ASEAN integration is quickening and deepening. In January this year, ASEAN Leaders committed to establish by 2015 – five years ahead of the original target – an ASEAN Economic Community.

As an economic hub and financial centre, Singapore is well connected to the major regions. So we are leveraging on our strengths, experience and contacts to build partnerships and create growth opportunities. To enhance our connectivity and enlarge our economic space, we have concluded 11 FTAs, including with the US, India, Japan, South Korea and Australia. We are negotiating 11 more, including with China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Many MNCs, investors and businesses are making use of Singapore’s connectivity to reach out to the region and beyond. Financial services are a prime example. Japanese financial institutions have made inroads into the Middle East. Interest has centred on servicing Asian investors – primarily project financing and loan syndication. I encourage you to take a wider perspective – consider making commercial banking, corporate finance, capital-market services and private-banking services part of your long-term growth strategy. There are many opportunities for you to use Singapore to reach out to the Middle East. You could explore possibilities for collaborating with Singapore-based financial institutions with strong know-how. You could also start discussions with the Middle Eastern banks and players present in Singapore. I would also like to encourage you to use Singapore as a regional hub to conduct your investment activities. Let me give you some idea of what we’re building here. Allow me to share with you the results of the 2006 Asset Management Survey. There are three broad trends worth noting. First, total assets under management (AUM) have grown robustly over the last six years.
Third, the financial authorities, including the Banco de España, have recommended that institutions temporarily eliminate dividend pay-outs and apply prudent criteria in their variable employee compensation schemes, so that they may channel their resources into shoring up their capital positions. These measures will be reviewed before year-end but, in any event, institutions’ dividend distribution and compensation policies should remain highly prudent until the current uncertainty abates and a solid economic recovery takes root. For its part, the EU has approved a package of measures to encourage banks to make full use of the flexibility inherent in the European accounting and prudential framework. The measures also make a series of adjustments to the applicable regulations, to encourage bank lending to households and firms. Included in this package of measures is the Capital Requirements Regulation “quick fix”, which adapts the SME support factor in the calculation of risk-weighted assets (RWAs), applies a prudential filter to changes in the value of sovereign debt instruments and reviews the temporary prudential treatment of credit risk impairment, among other measures. This response from the prudential authorities, accompanied by the fiscal and monetary policy measures adopted, has enabled the initial impact of the shock to be absorbed and has prevented materialisation of a systemic risk in the financial system that would have exacerbated the crisis and made it more persistent.

Tarisa Watanagase: Thai financial sector and the challenges ahead Speech by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the conference on Asian Finance & Capital Markets 2004, Bangkok, 8 July 2004. *  *  *  Good morning, Let me first begin by thanking Euro Events for inviting me to address this distinguished audience. I am delighted to be here to share with you some of my thoughts on the Thai financial sector and where it is heading, especially since a lot is happening at this juncture, with the Financial Sector Master Plan being implemented. I trust therefore that we will have much to learn from each other, given the diverse background of participants in this conference, ranging from banking and government officials to investment managers and business leaders. Since you will engage in absorbing debates on practical issues on finance and capital markets, my presentation will deal with the broader issue of prospects and challenges for the financial market in the Thai perspective. While the discussion will be based on the experience of Thailand, some of the challenges will be commonly faced by other emerging economies. Thus, it is my sincere hope that the implication drawn from this presentation will also be applicable and useful for participants from other countries. I will first touch on the structure of the Thai financial sector and the assessment of where the banking sector currently stands.
In 2001, average inflation rates in the region as a whole fell to single figure levels for the first time since the fall of the iron curtain and, thereafter, they have continued to decline. In this context, let me highlight that, bearing in mind the potential inflationary pressures that might arise from completing structural reforms, the conduct of a  BIS Review 58/2002  1  monetary policy in the accession countries aiming at price stability should be seen as a medium-term objective, rather than as a short-term target. However, the sound management of macroeconomic policies cannot rely on monetary policy alone. In particular, stability-oriented policies in accession countries need to be supported by sound fiscal policies. Prudent fiscal policy management has been key to making sustainable progress in terms of macroeconomic stabilisation in the accession countries. At the beginning of the transition to a market economy, poor tax collection and governments' limited access to financial markets led to substantial monetisation of public deficits. However, from the mid-1990s onwards, fiscal policy has focused on macroeconomic stability. Therefore, a key lesson from the accession countries' experience is that responsible fiscal policy has been a crucial element in achieving and maintaining macroeconomic stability. Looking ahead, the best contribution that fiscal policies can make to sustainable noninflationary growth is by pressing ahead with fiscal consolidation, as is necessary to ensure the flexibility needed to deal with potential domestic and/or external economic shocks in the medium term.

Christian Noyer: The situation in the euro area Introduction by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Paris Europlace Financial Forum Luncheon, New York City, 23 April 2012. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, It is a great pleasure for me to host this luncheon together with Lawrence Leibowitz. I would like to thank Paris Europlace for organizing this very interesting Forum and the NYSE for welcoming us here, at the very heart of the global financial world. I would like to focus my short address on the situation in the euro area where the important steps already taken to exit the crisis now need to be further enhanced. ********* 1. The important steps to exit the crisis already taken by the euro area are beginning to bear fruit. Indeed, when you compare the situation of the euro area in the first quarter of this year with that in the second half of 2011, the contrast is striking:   Conditions in bank funding markets are much better. For instance, euro area banks have already issued about 70 billion euro in senior unsecured debt so far this year, which is well in excess of what they did in the whole of the second half of last year.
Fellow Members of Staff, Invited Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, as we move ahead and look to the next 50 years of Central Banking in Zambia, the Bank of Zambia will continue to play catalytic role in facilitating the exchange of ideas among financial sector players and all other key stakeholders. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Today, we are here to officially launch the celebrations of 50 years of our existence. I would like take this opportunity to inform you that a number of activities have been lined up to commemorate this wonderful occasion. These include: 1. An international symposium to discuss selected pertinent to the Bank of Zambia and in line with the theme of our celebration, scheduled for 7th August 2014;  2. An exhibition dedicated to the history of the Bank of Zambia;  3. The publication of a book on the History of the Bank of Zambia;  4. The launch of a book on Economic Policies in Zambia;  5. A national school quiz; and  6. A family day to show our gratitude to the families of the members of staff for their support in our execution of the Bank’s mandate. Ladies and Gentlemen, it is our expectation, therefore, that all members of staff will take part in the upcoming activities in order to make the anniversary celebrations a success and memorable.

It reserves the right to reject or limit the use of an asset on the basis of any information on its credit quality that it may consider relevant. The Eurosystem has applied such discretion to temporarily suspend the application of the minimum rating requirement to debt instruments issued or guaranteed by some euro area governments following EU/IMF adjustment programmes. Thank you for your attention. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches