Public and political acceptance will be more likely if voters are not only given the possibility, but being helped, to form an opinion and to express it in general elections. Summing up Perhaps somewhat counterintuitive but in line with today’s seminar topic, I would like to end this speech by questioning its underlying assumption. Is it necessarily a problem having to give up national monetary policy when joining a monetary union? The assumption presupposes that what is to be stabilised is mainly driven by factors that can be affected by national policy instruments. Is this really the case? A recent cross-country study suggests that determinants of inflation have become less “country-centric” and increasingly “globe-centric” (Borio and Filardo, 2006). Of course, national stabilization policy still plays an important role, but global factors are becoming increasingly important. At the same time, business cycles in the G7 countries seem to have become increasingly synchronised, thereby narrowing the difference between domestic and global determinants of inflation. 7 As integration increases and differences diminish, monetary unions will have a greater chance of success. This chance will increase further if countries prepare their economies from a stabilizing as well as a structural perspective. Institutionally, frameworks for monetary and fiscal policy, at country and union level alike, should strive for consistency, commitment, transparency and accountability, coupled with independence of policy makers. Most importantly, the aim should be long-term stabilization rather than short-term fine-tuning. Against this back-drop, it is my belief that the advantages of a monetary union outweigh the disadvantages.

Yet, France also enjoys major assets. First, a high investment rate, which has returned to its 2008 peak for private non-residential investment – close to the US level, indeed – and remains above the euro area average for public investment. It also has a wealth of fast-growing innovative firms according to Deloitte. [slide 3] Second, a high level of hourly productivity, on a par with Germany and the United States, but with a more dynamic working-age population than in the rest of Europe, which will support potential growth in the medium term. [slide 4] That’s where we are starting from. I would like to underline that we are enjoying a favourable momentum, which offers a window of opportunity for reform. This opportunity is indeed being seized to implement ambitious and consistent reforms, so yes, France is heading in the right direction and at a fast pace. [slide 5] 1. A favourable momentum: a robust upturn creates an appropriate timing for reforms Business climate and consumer confidence increased sharply in 2017. Surveys in all sectors reached levels that had not been observed for several years. After the uncertainties surrounding the presidential campaign, the French institutional framework now seems solid to international observers. Allow me a one-second excursion from economic to political science. In the troubled democratic times we live through, France has the strong advantage of a clear two-round majority voting system, and 5-year terms for the President as well as for Parliament.