samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Tourists have a habit of taking back home unused currency – both notes and coins. This represents a leakage from circulation and needs to be replaced. We don’t have good data on this. But take for example, Singapore. Last year, we received almost 12 million visitors. If everyone took 8 coins back with them, close to 100 million coins would have leaked out of the country. And it will cost MAS about $ million to replace them. That’s why we have been working with the Singapore Mint, Changi Airport Group, and charity organisations to increase the availability of boxes in various parts of Changi Airport, for tourists to donate their excess notes and coins before they leave the country. Physical cash commands a premium during times of uncertainty. We saw this during the 2008 global financial crisis. Within the first month of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there was an exceptionally large withdrawal of high denomination notes by banks in Singapore. Typically, 90 per cent or more of the high-denomination notes withdrawn from banks are redeposited within the month. During the initial months of the 2008 crisis, only 70 per cent of the $ $ and $ notes withdrawn were returned. This phenomenon is insightful. The safety and soundness of banks in Singapore was never in question, and the impact of the crisis on Singapore’s financial system was minimal. But there was a discernible effect on consumer behaviour – people preferred to keep more cash in a climate of heightened uncertainty. The bottom line?

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Further strengthening of the institutional structure for Islamic banking business operations Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the launch of RHB Islamic Bank Berhad, Kuala Lumpur, 1 March 2005. *  *  *  "Building on the strong foundations of a well-developed, comprehensive Islamic financial system and strengthening its international inter-linkages and thus its global integration, has enhanced Malaysia's potential to be an international centre for Islamic finance. Our first Islamic bank, established in 1983, marked the beginning of the Islamic banking and finance chapter for our country. The opening of Islamic banking windows by financial institutions in 1993 paved the way for a more effective and efficient distribution channel for lslamic banking services to achieve the critical mass on a nationwide scale. These developments have been reinforced by the progress achieved in the establishment of the Islamic financial infrastructure, including the money and capital markets, the regulatory and supervisory structure, and most importantly, the legal and shariah framework. Today marks the emergence of a new era, with the establishment of an Islamic subsidiary of a banking group as Islamic banking in our financial system enters into the third strategic phase of the institutional development of Islamic banking and finance in Malaysia". Ladies and Gentlemen, It is my pleasure to be here this morning on the occasion of the official launch of RHB Islamic Bank Berhad. Indeed, today, we are witnessing the first transformation of an Islamic banking window to an Islamic subsidiary.
We challenge hard where we think model calibrations are weak based on either comparison with other insurers’ models or our own view of a risk. At the same time, though, we recognise that every insurer’s risk profile is different. Insurers are many and varied. The standard formula cannot be flexible enough to work well for all of them. For this reason, internal models are an important element of the Solvency II framework. Part of the reason for our intensive review of insurer models is that the interests of management and shareholders do not necessarily align with our own. Financial performance is measured by return on equity. Especially in a highly competitive trading environment, lowering regulatory capital requirements may seem a more achievable way to boost return on equity than increasing underlying profits. One legitimate approach is to reduce underlying risks. If an insurer’s internal model is well designed, lower risks should lead to a fall in 3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  3  capital requirements. We become concerned when genuine risk reduction tips over into weakening of assumptions or more aggressive modelling of risks. It is one thing we look for when reviewing material model changes proposed by insurers. Another is selectivity. Insurers might seek to make changes to their models in areas where risks are reducing or they have overestimated them but neglect areas where risks are increasing or they have underestimated them.

The PRA is well aware of the need to have regard to facilitating long-term productive investment in the economy when pursuing its statutory objectives.5 Insurers active in the bulk purchase annuity market tell us that they intend to continue this diversification into direct investments, targeting on average a c.40-50% share of total assets backing annuity obligations, significantly higher than before Solvency II. Overall, I think the PRA’s implementation of Solvency II works well for annuity business. That is why we recommended adoption of a similar framework for superfunds. Solvency II does though have one significant flaw as a regime for annuities business: the design of the risk margin. Particularly in relation to long-dated insurance risks, such as longevity, the risk margin calculation is too sensitive to interest rates. As a result, the risk margin is too high when interest rates are low and too low when they are high. With interest rates currently low, insurers have responded to a too-high risk margin on annuity business by reinsuring longevity risk on new business offshore. Meanwhile Transitional Measures on Technical Provisions (TMTP) offset the risk margin on the pre-Solvency II back book. The irony is that UK insurers do not hold an especially high level of risk margin (net of TMTP) on their annuity books in practice. This outcome is unwelcome from our perspective because UK insurers are increasingly exposed to offshore reinsurers and TMTP is higher than it otherwise would be, giving the impression that UK insurers are more reliant on transitionals to meet capital requirements.
60  60  40  40  20  20  0  0 Will drop significantly  Will drop slightly  Will not change  Source: Business survey, Central Bank of Chile. 11  Will increase slightly  Figure 7 National unemployment rates and extended measures (2)  Total employment (1) (contribution to annual change, percentage points)  4  4  Self-employed  Salaried informal 3  Total employment  3 2  (percent)  20  10 Potential rate( 4)  18  2  Unemploy't rate (right axis)  16 1  1  0  0 Salaried formal  -1  -1  9  8  14  7  12  Labor pressure rate 6 (3)  Other -2  -2 10 18 Sep.  19 19  19 May  19 Sep.  20  5 14  15  16  17  18  19  20  (1) First quarter 2020 uses information up until the moving quarter ending in January. Salaried formal comprises dependent workers with access to social security, i.e. health-care and pension fund associated to their employment. Salaried informal are dependent workers with no simultaneous access to social security or is not guaranteed by the employer. Others correspond to employers, and non-remunerated family services or household help. (2) Considers information up to the moving quarter ending in February.

The benefits of price stability, which are also important factors to the attainment of MDGs are: effective planning; lower investment costs; increased public and foreign investor confidence in the economy; improved external sector competitiveness; and accelerated economic growth needed to reduce poverty levels. (a)  Effective planning  When prices are stable, corporate institutions, governments, civil society and individuals are able to draw up their expenditure plans well into the future. In particular, companies will be  BIS Review 123/2007  1  able to reliably plan with some degree of certainty for their operations and long-term investment in fixed assets that will expand their production capacity and output and lead to increased employment as well as enhancement of incomes. Similarly, a government is able to make more accurate projections of revenues expected to be collected in future and thus more effectively plan its current and capital expenditures that are likely to benefit the poor. (b)  Lower cost of investment  Interest rates being the cost of funds will inhibit borrowing for investment if they are too high. Interest rates, therefore, are an important factor in attaining price stability. Low and stable interest rates, which are possible with the achievement of low inflation, create conducive credit conditions that improve accessibility and availability of credit to the productive sectors. Improved access to credit by the private sector will result in increased investment and production which ultimately leads to higher economic growth and improvement in standard of living.
Frozen capital markets threatened even solvent banks. At an early stage, there were fears that the pandemic that hit us in 2020 might also trigger a financial crisis. Three different situations, but one common endeavour for central banks: The financial system had to be protected. At the start of the pandemic, access to market liquidity was narrow, and the price of available capital was disproportionately high. Norges Bank stepped in and provided additional liquidity support to the banks (Chart 2). The purpose was to contribute to smooth market functioning and ensure that the policy rate cuts passed through to the interest rates faced by households and businesses. 3  NORGES BANK  Chart 2 Additional liquidity support during the pandemic  ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 17 FEBRUARY 2022  F-loans. In billions of NOK 200  200  150  150  100  100  50  50  0 Jan-20  Apr-20  Jul-20  Oct-20  Jan-21  Apr-21  Jul-21  Ordinary F-loans Extraordinary F-loans  0  Source: Norges Bank  The actions taken build on several important principles:3 First, the risk transferred to the central bank should be as low as possible. If the support schemes are too favourable, we risk undermining the banks’ own motivation to maintain sound credit and liquidity policies. Those who take risks must also be prepared to bear the losses. Second, loans should only be given to banks that are solvent. The central bank’s role is not to help recapitalise banks.

Chart 4 shows the probability of finding a job one year after being registered as unemployed – whether as short-term or long-term unemployed, on a labour market programme, on initial time-limited benefit or permanent disability. 4 Norges Bank (2022) “Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy Handbook”. Norges Bank Papers 1/2022. 5  NORGES BANK  Chart 4 More people find work when demand is high  ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 17 FEBRUARY 2022  Transition to work by labour status. Percent 60  60  50  50  40  40  30  30  20  20  10  10  0  Short-term unemployed  Long-term unemployed  Labour market measures  On time-limited benefit  On disability benefit  Normal situation High demand  0  Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Persons aged 20–60. Average for the years 1996–2017. Time of measurement: Q4 Long-term unemployed: Persons who were also unemployed in the two previous quarters. There are two things to note. First, there is a higher probability of finding a job in periods of high labour demand than in a normal situation. Second, this also applies to those that are not registered as unemployed, which may include persons at risk of being permanently excluded from the labour market. High and stable employment is therefore not only about keeping unemployment low, but also about the size of the labour force. We must prevent periods of economic decline from leaving scars in the form of lower labour supply.
At the Central Bank, we have also shifted the currency composition of our reserves from euros to US dollars. The share of euros in our reserves has fallen from 73% to 54%, and there has been a parallel shift in the composition of our foreign exchange liabilities. Now let me point out two major positive effects of introducing the euro into the Turkish economy. The first positive effect is that elimination of the transaction costs arising from a multitude of European exchange rates has encouraged the use of the euro as a unit of currency. Between 1994 and 1998, the euro’s share in the current account’s foreign exchange receipts averaged 37% and in its foreign exchange expenditures averaged 32%. Eighteen months after the introduction of the euro, these figures have barely changed: the respective shares are 40% and 33%. The second positive effect is that the Convergence Criteria of the Maastricht Treaty, and the Copenhagen Criteria, require economies seeking to join the EU and EMU to become efficient market economies and achieve a high degree of verifiable convergence with the EU. As we all know, the requirements include BIS Review 109/2000  2  price stability, low market-based interest rates, stable exchange rates, and sustainable public finances. And whether or not it is considered immediately important for Turkey to become a member of EMU, these convergence criteria can give us an effective means of disciplining our economy.

Muhammad Al-Jasser: “Assessment” project of small and medium size enterprises Opening speech by His Excellency Dr Muhammad Al-Jasser, Governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), at the inauguration ceremony of the “Assessment” project of small and medium size enterprises, Saudi Company for Credit Information (SIMAH), Riyadh, 8 October 2011. *  *  *  Your Excellencies and Dear audience, I am pleased to participate with you in celebrating the launching of the “Assessment” Project of Small and Medium Enterprises. First, I would like to express my thanks and appreciation to the colleagues at the Saudi Company for Credit Information (SIMAH) for the development of this important project, which I hope will be provided with all necessary means of support by all entities concerned for its success. Dear brothers and sisters, The national economy consists of a large and integral variety of public and private institutions that use available human and material resources to produce continuous flows of goods and services to meet the domestic community’s needs and a part of the external demand. Of course, domestic enterprises differ in size based on various criteria, the most important of which are: the number of workers, the amount of capital, sales and others. One of the misconceptions is that large enterprises are the main impetus of economic activity. This belief has arisen from the good news repeatedly published about those institutions in various mass media.
In Switzerland, the supervision and regulation of banks has traditionally been the responsibility of a separate independent authority, the Swiss Federal Banking Commission (SFBC). 2 So, where does the attention to financial stability come from? Let me offer you two straightforward reasons, followed by one that is perhaps slightly more subtle. First, in an advanced sophisticated economy, monetary policy would be severely challenged without a stable financial system and in particular without a stable banking system. Central banks depend on a functioning network of banks to conduct monetary policy operations. In theory monetary policy could be conducted without banks. For instance, we could increase liquidity by dropping currency from the proverbial helicopter. 3 Surely, doubts are justified as to whether this would be as effective as conducting auction-based repo transactions with robust banks. Second, a stable financial system with solid banks is of great importance for the development and growth of the economy. In Switzerland, for instance, the financial sector contributes nearly 15% to GDP and is therefore the most important industry in the economy. 4 Moreover, according to a recent study, the financial sector in Switzerland has in recent years contributed as much as 50% to economic growth. 5 The financial sector also provides essential inputs and services to all other industries. Here, I am thinking primarily of the banks that provide credit and liquidity to private households and firms.

As central banks, we need to consider carefully to what extent instant transparency with regard to liquidity operations may end up being counterproductive. Let me add here that this is a very complex issue. I am not arguing that the evolution towards greater transparency in central banking should be reversed. Indeed, perhaps we need greater ex ante transparency such as clearly stated conditions and eligibility criteria associated with central bank liquidity provisions. Undoubtedly, ex post transparency about potential liquidity support measures must also be guaranteed. But in the midst of a crisis, it may well be beneficial and desirable for central banks to have some flexibility with regard to how they communicate regarding potential liquidity operations. 2.2. Implications of volatile risk premia for the conduct of monetary policy  My second tentative lesson directly relates to the conduct of monetary policy. The recent market strains are unusual because confidence or rather the lack of confidence plays such an important role. Clearly, there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding valuations of complex credit instruments. Moreover and arguably more importantly, banks realize that they are facing or could face large contingent liabilities. They are therefore doing everything they can to protect their balance sheets. In essence, banks are hoarding liquidity and are reluctant to lend money in the interbank market beyond the very short term. As a result, a substantial and highly unusual risk premium has emerged in the interbank market.
Moreover, the fact that the borrowing rate of the Thai government compares to other countries in the region is much lower reflects that our fiscal risks are much lower. Thus, the risks of having the fiscal-type economic crisis are low as well. The third type of crisis that countries go through is the banking crisis. For us, if you look at our banking sector, it is still quite solid. The BIS capital ratio is about 18-19 percent which is among the highest in the region. The banking sector both in terms of liquidity and capital positions is quite strong. The one area where we are weak in terms of balance sheets is in the household sector where household debt to GDP remains quite elevated and has increased as a result of the COVID-19 crisis since people have less income to pay off their debt. All in all, the Thai economy is an economy where the downside risks are quite limited so we are able to handle various types of shocks whether it is COVID-19, political unrest, social unrest. With all these different kinds of shocks, the economy is still quite resilient. Another factor that contributes to our resiliency is the fact that our labor markets are quite flexible and that there is a strong and extensive informal social safety net. People who lost their jobs, they are able to return to their family, to the rural sector, and still able to survive.

Since the end of the Great Recession, overall inflation has averaged near the 2 percent longer-run objective of the FOMC. The rate of overall inflation in each of the past few years has been somewhat variable, reflecting sharp swings in energy and commodity prices that largely have been driven by conditions outside of the United States. While swings in commodity prices can cause fluctuations in expenditures for consumers that can be difficult for them to manage, these swings tend to be transitory and self-correcting. For these reasons, most economists prefer to gauge underlying inflation pressures by monitoring movements in prices that are less transitory. These include, but are not limited to, the core measures of inflation that exclude food and energy components. Based on the personal consumption expenditures deflator, or PCE, measure of consumer price inflation, which is more comprehensive than the more widely known consumer price index, or CPI measure,  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  the core inflation rate was 1.4 percent over the 12 months through December, below the 2 percent level that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has stated as its inflation objective, consistent with its mandate of price stability. The latest CPI indicates that inflation remained similarly subdued in January. Measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Sluggish improvement in labor market conditions, subdued inflation, and well-anchored inflation expectations, were noted as the primary factors underlying the FOMC’s decision, at its January meeting, to continue to pursue a “highly accommodative” policy stance.
It was the Governor's casting vote that decided the issue and that led to the repo rate being increased rather than being left unchanged. Before I explain what lay behind the decision and present my own view, I would like to say something more general about the even result of the vote. There are a number of observations and reflections that can be made and that I feel are worth highlighting. I intend to conclude by saying something about the new statistics that have been presented since our meeting. A great deal has happened recently, not least on the financial markets. An entirely divided Executive Board is unusual A first observation is that if we look to the past it is very unusual for the Board to be split down the middle. During the almost ten years that the Board has existed and the approximately 85 monetary policy meetings that have been held, this has in fact only happened four times, counting the latest meeting. The most usual result, not surprisingly, is that the Board has been unanimous. Fairly frequently, however, at about a third of the meetings, at least one member has entered a reservation against the interest rate decision. As an aside it may be worth pointing out that for some time now it has perhaps been more noticeable than before if we are in disagreement. These days, we also have to decide on a forecast for the repo rate.

This is very positive and will alleviate the shortage on this market that has arisen in the wake of the global financial turmoil. The Riksbank's assessment is that the unrest on the financial markets is not affecting financial stability in Sweden. We can note that the Swedish banks have made very good profits in recent years and are financially robust. However, if the banks were to experience liquidity problems that could threaten financial stability we are ready to take measures to provide liquidity assistance. It will take time for the uncertainty on the financial markets to abate and for the situation to stabilise in a lasting way. We have already seen how the financial unrest has left its mark on the development of the real economy, and uncertainty about how it will affect growth prospects in the period ahead remains. At the end of October, the Executive Board will once more make an overall assessment of the growth and inflation prospects. Exaggerated focus on the current interest rate decision I would like to conclude with a final reflection. It is natural and important that monetary policy is debated. Sometimes, however, it feels as though a little too much focus is placed on the current interest rate decision. To say that a lot has been written about the latest interest rate increase would be somewhat of an understatement. The discussion conducted in certain quarters almost gives the impression that this increase will throw Sweden into a bottomless pit of recession.