samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Profit before loan losses and net loan losses in the major banks (Four-quarter figures, SEK billion, 2006 prices) 100  80  60  40  20  jun-06  dec-06  jun-05  dec-05  jun-04  dec-04  jun-03  dec-03  jun-02  dec-02  jun-01  dec-01  jun-00  dec-00  jun-99  dec-99  jun-98  dec-98  jun-97  dec-97  jun-96  dec-96  jun-95  dec-95  jun-94  dec-94  jun-93  dec-93  jun-92  dec-92  jun-91  dec-91  dec-90  0  -20 Profit before loan losses  Profit before loan losses using IFRS  Loan losses  Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank  2.

The share of income received by the top 1 per cent of the population has also risen since the 1980s across many industrialised countries, including Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States (Atkinson and Morelli, 2014). 5  See Autor, Katz and Krueger (1998) and Autor, Katz and Kearney (2008). For example the last 60 years have seen US returns to education rise despite a large increase in the supply of more educated workers. And there is evidence that increases in the employment of more skilled workers between the 1970s and the 1990s were greater in more computer intensive industries. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Now is the time to be famous or fortunate. There is also disturbing evidence that equality of opportunity has fallen, with the potential to reinforce cultural and economic divides. For example, social mobility has declined in the US undercutting the sense of fairness at the heart of American society. 7 Intergenerational equity is similarly strained across the advanced world. Social welfare systems designed and enjoyed by previous generations may prove, absent reform, unaffordable for future ones. 8 And environmental degradation remains unaddressed, a tragic embarrassment now seldom mentioned in either polite society or at the G20. To maintain the balance of an inclusive social contract, it is necessary to recognise the importance of values and beliefs in economic life.
The SNB’s additional interest costs – which amount to some CHF 100 million for the current year – are offset by the additional income from the correspondingly higher foreign exchange reserves. 2  BIS Review 173/2010  Experience shows that, in the longer term, the income on diversified foreign exchange holdings will exceed the interest costs on the Swiss franc money market, even after any exchange rate losses are taken into account. However, as we can clearly see from this year’s income statement, the fluctuations in income can be very large. Swiss market considers participation in Target2-Securities, the European securities settlement system Finally, I would like to briefly discuss the planned pan-European securities settlement system. Target2-Securities (T2S) is designed to replace, either totally or partially, the existing domestic settlement systems of the national central securities depositories (CSDs), and to drastically reduce the cost of cross-border securities settlement in Europe. The European Central Bank (ECB) regards T2S as a contribution to the harmonisation and integration of the European market. T2S is scheduled to go into operation in 2014. The ECB’s project will also have an impact on the Swiss financial centre. The question of how the Swiss financial market infrastructure will be connected is important for both the banks and the SNB. In 2009, with the agreement of the SNB, SIX SIS AG – the Swiss CSD and a subsidiary of SIX Group – signed a memorandum of intent to participate in T2S with euro-denominated securities.

While this will open up new opportunities for enhanced efficiency and productivity gains in Asia, a better understanding of the risks inherent in networks will better prepare the regional economies to address these risks. This will be a shared responsibility within and among the regional economies. Closer regional cooperation, strategic alliances and smart partnerships will be important key responses for enhancing the prospects for higher growth and development in Asia. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 32/2006
19.09.2022  Inflation and economic growth in the euro area: monetary policy and the role of other economic policies* Joly Andalucía Forum Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  * English translation from the original in Spanish  *  Ladies and gentlemen, please allow me, first, to thank the organisers of the Joly Andalucía Forum for inviting me to take part in this event. In my address today I will present an overview of the economic situation in the euro area, aiming to explain the latest ECB monetary policy decisions. I will also briefly refer to the role that other economic policies should play in such a complex and uncertain economic scenario as the present one. The negative effects of the war in Ukraine on the European economy are heightened by its impact on energy markets Europe is particularly exposed to the economic effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, given its geographic proximity, its close trade and financial ties with Russia and, especially, its high dependence on fossil fuel imports from Russia, with limited capacity to replace these imports in the short term. Since the start of the war, the flow of Russian gas to Europe has decreased significantly, and recently the supply has effectively been shut off completely. Concerns about winter gas shortages have increased in some European countries. At the same time, gas prices on the Dutch TTF market, the European benchmark, have soared. The price of natural gas remains extremely volatile.

The full reopening of European economies after two summers of pandemicrelated restrictions has unleashed strong demand for leisure, hospitality and tourism. Accordingly, euro area GDP rose by 0.8% in the second quarter, compared with 0.7% in the first quarter, outstripping the 0.2% projected in the Eurosystem’s June forecasts. The growth in GDP in the second quarter was higher than anticipated in many euro area countries, and especially in Spain and Italy which both saw an unexpected surge in private consumption. However, the reopening effects are expected to dwindle and economic growth to slow in the short term, in view of households’ loss of purchasing power, the energy crisis, weaker global demand, tighter financial conditions as a result of the monetary policy normalisation, and the highly uncertain economic and geopolitical setting. Indeed, the latest data for the third quarter point to a rapid economic slowdown in the euro area countries. The Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) signal a contraction in manufacturing in the big euro area economies in the third quarter, while the PMI services index points to a considerable slowdown, with a contraction in Germany and Italy. Thus, the gas market developments described above contrast with developments in other commodities – such as oil and non-energy goods – whose prices have tended to moderate since the summer owing, among other factors, to the prospects of a global economic slowdown.
20  Woodford M. “For not only do expectations about policy matter, but (…) very little else matters.” – Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy, Princeton University Press, 2003. BIS Review 42/2006  3  been followed recently by the Norgesbank 21 . At first (since 2003) the Norwegian MPC published its monetary policy intentions only for the next four months in the form of an interest rate forecast interval. Last November it went further and started publishing a forecast for interest rates three years ahead in the form of a central forecast (with two alternative scenarios) along with a fanchart). These bold steps made New Zealanders and Norwegians push the frontier of central banking ahead and set a new benchmark for inflation targeters 22 . Are we ready to follow? In 2000 Mahadeva and Sterne measured central banks transparency 23 . Back then the Polish central bank was below the average among inflation targeters. However since then the NBP has made considerable progress. Major changes to communication have been introduced such as publication of inflation forecasts, modification of inflation reports and decision statements in order to make them more forward-looking. Łyziak et al. have applied the Mahadeva-Sterne and Eijffinger–Geraats indices to assess current transparency of the NBP and showed that it has markedly improved 24 . Nevertheless, we are not resting complacently. There are still ways to go and things to learn.

23  Mahadeva L., Sterne G. (ed.) Monetary Policy Frameworks in a Global Context, Routledge, 2000. 24  The improvement of monetary policy transparency in Poland is documented in Łyziak et al. “Central bank credibility and transparency – the case of Poland”, mimeo, 2005. 25  Rozkrut M., Rybinski K., Sztaba L., Szwaja R. „Quest for Central Bank Communication. Does It Pay To Be “Talkative?””, mimeo, April 2006. 26  “According to Debelle (1997) and Mason et al. (1997), one of the key prerequisites for the successful adoption of inflation targeting is that the central bank must have an adequate ability to produce inflation forecasts and to assess the impact of changes in monetary instruments on inflation (the magnitude of the effects, their lags etc. ).” In Poland until 1998 (IT was introduced in 1999) there was no clear statistical linkage between changes in the short-term policy interest rates and changes in inflation - Christoffersen P., Wescott R. ”Is Poland ready for inflation targeting?”, IMF Working Paper, 1999. 27  IMF, op. cit. 4  BIS Review 42/2006  Thank you. BIS Review 42/2006  5
As I in practice have not let concern for households’ rapid build-up of debt affect my view of how the repo rate should be set today, measures of the first type, that is, measures that directly limit vulnerable households’ opportunities to become or remain heavily indebted, would probably also have little effect on my choice of repo rate and repo-rate path. On the other hand, measures that entail an increase in the average lending rates or a weakening of general demand would justify cutting the repo rate. The purpose would then be to counteract the effects of the supervisory measure on total economic developments. However, the supervision measures could nevertheless affect financial imbalances, for instance, by changing the level of household mortgage rates in relation to companies’ borrowing rates. Further macroprudential policy measures thus need not change my view of which monetary policy is most appropriate now. However, such measures are nevertheless important to monetary policy as they can reduce risks and uncertainties. It is easier to conduct monetary policy if financial stability is good. References Blanchard, Olivier and Galí, Jordi (2007), Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 39(p1), pp. 35–62. Farhi, Emmanuel and Tirole, Jean (2012), Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch and Systemic Bailouts. American Economic Review 102(1), pp. 60–93. National Institute of Economic Research (2013), Are households borrowing too much? Article in Swedish Economy June 2013 [NB! only a summary of the report is published in English].

Ardian Fullani: Albania on the road to EU integration Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the launching ceremony of the Needs Analysis for the Bank of Albania project, Tirana 17 April 2014. *  *  *  Dear Mr. Mersch, Dear Mr. Hamza, Dear Mr. Bajrami, Your Excellencies Ambassadors, Dear guests, The purpose of the programme we are launching today is to support the Bank of Albania in the process of approximation with the EU central banking rules, procedures and standards. This is another step forward in the increasingly closer cooperation between the Bank of Albania, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Eurosystem. I am delighted we have here today the Governor of the Central Bank of Kosovo and Vice Governor of the National Bank of Macedonia, as co-beneficiaries under this project. The Project addresses 13 different fields of central banking, as identified by Bank of Albania and ECB experts, wherein the Bank of Albania needs to make progress to reach comparable benchmarks to an EU central bank. These fields relate to all the main functions of the Bank of Albania, such as monetary and financial stability, operations, financial infrastructure, transparency, accountability and human capital. For the first time, information technology is also incorporated in the project scope, hence reflecting the impact of technology’s evolution on central bank operational systems over the past decades.
That said, I expect that growth, over the near term, will slow somewhat from the pace we saw during the second half of last year. In particular, during the current quarter, unusually cold and snowy weather will undoubtedly depress activity somewhat – especially with respect to construction activity, but also to a lesser extent in areas such as retail spending. Also, as mentioned above, some special, one-time factors, such as very rapid growth of exports and sustained inventory building, are unlikely to be repeated over the first half of this year. Moreover, while there is now a much better balance between supply and demand in the housing market, that market is still adjusting to the roughly 100 basis point increase in mortgage interest rates that occurred in mid-2013. I do expect that growth will be strong enough to lead to continued improvement in labor market conditions. I must caution, however, that the outlook for the unemployment rate is unusually uncertain. If our assessment is correct, at some point an improving labor market should cause the labor force participation rate to stabilize or rise a bit as currently discouraged workers begin looking for work. Such developments could result in a more muted rate of decline of the unemployment rate despite the faster growth. Finally, as the expansion continues, I expect inflation to gradually rise toward the FOMC’s objective of 2 percent as measured by the PCE deflator.

Indeed, employment held up well during the recession, declining by less than 2 percent over a brief period in early 2009, and has averaged a nearly 3 percent annualized growth rate since then. Job growth has been particularly strong at retailers, hotels and restaurants, and also service firms ranging from advertising to engineering. That said, the employment picture does have some difficulties. For example, there is concern over some well-paying health sector jobs given the financial strain at Long Island College Hospital and Interfaith Medical Center and the pressure to close those institutions. Brooklyn’s economic vitality is also reflected in the commercial real estate market, as both office and retail vacancy rates have fallen steadily over the past few years. In fact, office vacancy rates are now lower in Brooklyn than in Manhattan. The strength in the housing market is also evident, with the median home price up by roughly 10 percent in each of the past two years, and the rental market has shown similar strength. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  However, these increasing prices also raise two other issues that acutely afflict many in Brooklyn and New York City more broadly: housing affordability and poverty. Despite Brooklyn’s economic renaissance and growing affluence, a large swath of the Borough’s population – one in four residents – still lives in poverty, and many struggle to pay their rent or mortgage. Even with the strong pace of job creation, Brooklyn’s unemployment rate has remained high, averaging more than 9 percent in 2013.
Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour: Islamic finance – building solutions for a sustainable future Speech by Mr Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 3rd Annual Symposium on Islamic Finance "Islamic Finance - Building Solutions for a Sustainable Future", Kuala Lumpur, 12 December 2017. * * * It is an honour for me to be here today at this 3rd Annual Symposium on Islamic Finance. We are gathered here to engage and affirm our vision towards realising the potential of Islamic finance in supporting the Sustainable Development Goals that form the new global development blueprint. Time is of the essence in meeting the goals and targets by 2030. We have to collectively strategise our actions to bring them to life. How we balance economic prosperity, social equity and environmental responsibility matters greatly to the world. It is without a doubt that we cannot have continued prosperity without sustainability. In my remarks this morning, I will touch on the current global economic environment and challenges facing the world that point to the need for us to promote fiscal, social and environmental sustainability. I will also discuss the imperatives that can strengthen the role of Islamic finance in promoting inclusive growth, reducing inequality and accelerating poverty reduction. The past 50 years has been a period of extraordinary global economic expansion. The world economy expanded sixfold and average per capita income nearly tripled.

The El Niño phenomenon for example, affected many developing countries that are dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean. Last year, it left millions of people hungry and in need of food aid; water shortages across Southeast Asia; and higher food prices globally. Closer to home, thousands have been displaced after the northern state of Penang was hit by the worst flood in more than 20 years. These are indications that despite progress made in regulating global emissions of greenhouse gases over the past decades, we need to do more to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Moving on to the second challenge – growing inequality. Globally, the benefits of economic growth have been uneven. In reality, not all members of society have fully benefitted from the growth. While some have gained, many have been dislocated – feeling that they have been left behind. Today, global inequality is at its highest since the 19th century. Recent studies show that the richest 1% now owns half of the world’s wealth combined. In stark comparison, 70% of the 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  world’s adult population holds only 3% of the global wealth. Globally, continued widening of the inequality gap would be detrimental to economic growth and social progress in the long-run. Inequality is a threat to growth if it leads to those in the low income segment suffering poor health and low productivity; and to struggle in obtaining quality education.
If I had been free to wish for certain reforms to improve the housing market and slow indebtedness down, the amortisation requirements may not have been at the very top of my list, even if it is a good measure. However, the fundamental problems on the housing market and in household debt cannot be solved merely by introducing amortisation requirements. It would have been better to have measures to manage the basic problems: an undersized and unbalanced supply of housing, combined with a tax system that distorts both the choice of form of tenure and the choice between investing in home ownership and in other assets. However, it is clear that it is difficult, politically, to make such reforms. 26 Banks are obliged to carry out credit checks to ensure that borrowers can fulfil their undertakings. As part of these checks, banks draw up so-called discretionary income calculations. 27 Flodén et al. (2016). 9 [13]  Occasional reforms to certain parts of tax and housing policies will probably not be enough to create a reasonably efficient housing market. When you make loose adjustments in tax or credit rules, and thus affect housing prices, we get clear winners and losers. A comprehensive review of these areas is instead needed, together with a broad reform package that creates a better balance between demand and supply, so that we can avoid having to patch up problems as they occur.

The fact that inflation has been running below target in most advanced countries suggests that this challenge is not due to factors specific to a single country. Instead, there are more systemic factors at play, with the root cause being a combination of low neutral interest rates and the lower bound on interest rates. Investors are increasingly viewing these low inflation readings not as an aberration, but rather a new normal. This is evidenced by a broad-based decline in market-based measures of longerrun inflation expectations since the mid-2000s, with the UK providing the exception, as shown in Table 1. This downward slippage of longer-run inflation expectations, if it persists, implies that in the future central banks start further from their inflation goals and have even less room to maneuver, making the problem of low r-star and the ZLB even more difficult. Conclusion The ZLB has been a topic of study for nearly two decades. But recent history and the outlook for the longer-term future, make it more relevant than ever. Low inflation expectations, very low r-star, and slower growth all point to a challenging world where policymakers need to make the best use of the tools at their disposal to achieve their goals of strong economies and price stability. The key lessons from this research hold today and in the future. First, take swift action when faced with adverse economic conditions. Second, keep interest rates lower for longer. And third, adapt monetary policy strategies to succeed in the context of low r-star and the ZLB.