samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Over the past 20 years, nominal mainland GDP has increased by around 6 percent annually, and growth is still hovering around that trend. There were some tendencies towards overheating in the years prior to the financial crisis. Price and cost inflation in the Norwegian economy picked up markedly. But the correction that followed during and after the crisis has brought growth back to trend. There is little in this chart to indicate that the world economy has recently been through the most severe economic downturn in post-war history. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The picture changes when growth is broken down into price and volume. The high prices for domestically produced goods are the main factor that has supported our country’s income. Since 2005, producer prices have increased considerably faster than trend. This illustrates that mainland businesses have also benefited from the substantial improvement in Norway’s terms of trade. Chart 13: Mainland GDP – slump in economic activity Economic activity, on the other hand, slumped during the financial crisis. Although economic growth has picked up in the past few years, the level is still clearly below the pre-crisis trend. This would indicate that the financial crisis and the debt crisis have had lasting effects on the Norwegian economy as well. Chart 14: Mainland GDP – per capita The picture becomes even clearer when population growth is factored in. Measured per capita, we do not generate more value today than we did five years ago. This picture is similar to that of other advanced economies.

It is argued that similar operations should be done rather by the Ministry of Finance against issuance of the public debt. The Federal Reserve is probably aware of the delicacy of current situation and Chairman Ben Bernanke recently tried to assure the economic society that the Federal Reserve is prepared to close the respective funding windows when necessary. 2 However, a question that remains to be answered is how this will work in reality? Ladies and Gentlemen, instead of a conclusion let me please assure you that in spite of all the frontiers we face today the Czech National Bank does its business as usual and we will do whatever is necessary to meet our ultimate objective of price stability. Finally, I would like to wish to all of us for the year 2009 to be less challenging than the previous one. 2  See speech of Chairman Ben Bernanke: “Crisis and the Policy Response” at the Stamp Lecture, London School of Economics, London, on January 13, 2009. 2  BIS Review 20/2009
Effective resolution mechanisms are an important back-stop when the system’s resilience proves wanting, as recently. Developing more resilient capital markets Over the medium term, we of course need a much more resilient financial system. This is not just a matter of a better structured, better capitalised, more liquid, more prudently riskmanaged, more transparent, and better regulated banking system (and I emphasise system). We also need more resilient capital markets. In the 1980s and into the 1990s the authorities here and elsewhere helped to bring about a number of important structural changes in the market infrastructure: LIFFE; reforms at LCH; book-entry transfer, and later delivery-versuspayment, settlement systems; a wholesale payment system designed to withstand bank failures; the introduction of the gilt repo market. A lot of plumbing! And proof from the past that, working together, the industry and the authorities can do good. Those initiatives were designed to underpin stability in the rapidly evolving capital markets of the day. The current crisis has reminded everyone of the need for the authorities, occasionally and in a welltargeted way, to help remove blockages or quietly steer private sector initiatives on to a course serving the wider public interest. Entrepreneurial innovation is the life blood of economic growth. But sometimes it outstrips the supporting infrastructure. That happened with some parts of our capital markets over the past decade or more. The recent initiatives coming out of the US Treasury to strengthen markets are therefore to be welcomed in their broad thrust and goals.

Rachel Lomax: Inflation targeting in practice - models, forecasts and hunches Speech by Ms Rachel Lomax, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, to the 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London, 12 March 2005. I am most grateful to Jens Larsen, James Bell, Fabrizio Zampolli and Robin Windle for research support; and to Charlie Bean, Peter Andrews, Spencer Dale, Phil Evans, Laura Piscitelli and other colleagues at the Bank of England for helpful comments. *  *  *  Introduction Five and a half years ago in his Monnet lecture Charles Goodhart1 was able to talk with some confidence of the features that particularly distinguished the UK’s approach to inflation targeting. Today with over 20 countries, in every habitable continent, formally operating some variant of inflation targeting and many more adopting some parts of the framework, all actively sharing experience and best practice, I suspect that most aspects of our approach would find a counterpart somewhere else in the world. But Charles’s focus on the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) personal engagement in producing a published inflation forecast still seems to me to capture the essence of the UK’s approach. Today I want to talk about the role that forecasting has come to play in helping the MPC to take and communicate its decisions. In what sense does the Committee really ‘own’ the published forecasts that go out under its name? How much use do we make of models, and what models do we use?
Accordingly, the fiscal projections that are consistent with the macroeconomic scenario I have set out today point to the fiscal surplus almost disappearing in 2009. With this in mind, when designing the appropriate fiscal policy strategy for the downturn in the Spanish economy, it makes complete sense to give free rein to the automatic stabilisers, whose movement tends to counter cyclical fluctuations. This is one of the great advantages arising from the fiscal consolidation drive that took place during the expansion. The  6  BIS Review 44/2008  automatic nature of these instruments makes them the most suitable ones for stabilisation, because they respond rapidly to changes in the cycle, they help agents to form correct expectations regarding the authorities’ actions and they boost confidence. However, discretionary increases in public spending and tax reductions beyond the specific scope of the automatic stabilisers should be avoided, since they may compromise the maintenance of medium and long-term budgetary stability and eliminate the fiscal policy leeway to respond to sharper slowdowns. Maintaining a stance of budgetary stability during the downturn is, in any case, compatible with measures that may alter the composition of revenues and spending, without giving rise to a permanent deterioration in the budgetary situation, especially if such measures contribute to enhancing the quality of public finances and the efficiency of the economy.

At the same time, we have to recognise that, when executing lending policy, a central bank functions much like a private financial intermediary. Of course, a central bank loan creates money, which is not the case for private loans. But the lending side of the operation is essentially the same. The granting of private credit is accompanied by restrictions imposed on the borrower which limit its ability to take risks that might endanger the value of the loan. Likewise, when a central bank provides credit against collateral, it must follow up with a frequent re-evaluation of the credit conditions so as to safeguard its funds and make sure its commitment is not abused. Also, by the very act of declaring an asset eligible for monetary policy operations, a central bank has to be aware that it might affect its price. This argues in favor of a graduated system of collateral valuation, in which haircuts reflect the underlying fair value along a continuous scale, possibly with less threshold discontinuity than at present. These are issues for further analysis. 2. In any case, while central banks will be called upon to support market functioning in liquidity crises when the integrity of the transmission mechanism is threatened, they cannot be asked to rescue insolvent issuers – whether private or public institutions. In line with this principle, the SMP is meant to repair the integrity of the transmission mechanism, not to finance public debt. Conclusions Let me briefly summarise the thrust of my message.
6 In this regard, the symmetry of the downward response is also an open question. Some support for this hypothesis can be found in recent developments in upstream stages of the price formation process. In particular, non-energy industrial consumer prices are still accelerating (as the flash estimate for January shows). However, industrial prod ucer prices (excluding energy) have decelerated significantly since last spring and this deceleration is rather widespread among components. In any case, the transmission and broadening of inflationary pressures is occurring at different speeds and intensities across expenditure components. Pressures on underlying inflation have so far been highly concentrated in particular expenditure items like household equipment and maintenance, transport, and activities involving more social contact. Some of their prices are more cyclically sensitive, others are more directly affected by the increase in the cost of energy, food prices or bottlenecks, while, in general, a fast pass -through has been facilitated by particularly strong demand during the pandemic (especially in the case of durable goods) and the reopening phase (notably in the case of services). These items’ prices continued increasing very strongly in December, in both year-on-year and month-onmonth terms, pointing to strong underlying inflationary pressures. 7 Excluding these items from the basket, core inflation stood at 2.8% in December, 8 with a slight upward trend that also points to an incomplete and slow pass-through.

Dimitar Radev: Crisis management framework in Bulgaria Summary of statement by Mr Dimitar Radev, Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, at the annual meeting of governors and other central bank representatives from the countries of the Dutch-Belgian constituency of the IMF, organised by the National Bank of Belgium, Brussels, 24 February 2017. * * * The closure of the fourth largest bank in Bulgaria in 2014 put to the test the country’s financial stability. This incident revealed, among other things, serious limitations in our crisis management arrangements in the banking area and, more specifically, the lack of a proper institutional framework to deal with resolution of systemically important banks. Our policy response to the 2014 crisis was incorporated in an 18-month plan adopted in mid2015, defining concrete actions in three priority areas: An independent assessment of: (1) the banks in Bulgaria (through an AQR and stress tests that were completed in 2016), and (2) our crisis management framework (through a still ongoing financial sector assessment, FSAP, by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank); A comprehensive reform of the Central Bank’s banking supervision and regulation framework and practices, based on the Basel Core Principles (BCP); Introducing the BNB’s new bank resolution functions compliant with the European Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD). The implementation of the plan helped build sound foundations for our crisis management framework.
The Digital Marketplace aims to connect ESG technology providers to investors, financial institutions, and corporates, to facilitate partnerships and investments for ESG solutions. The aim is to launch this also next year. Project Greenprint and the ESG Impact Hub are not MAS projects, or even Singapore projects. They are open-ended, collaborative platforms, for financial institutions and FinTech players from around the world to connect to, collaborate, and co-create innovative solutions to advance the sustainability agenda. Our goal is to foster a vibrant ESG FinTech ecosystem spanning across countries. In this effort, we hope Singapore can play a role as a launchpad for ESG FinTech solutions and enable financial institutions in Singapore and in the region to play a more active role in Asia's and the world's transition to net-zero. Finance and technology can together help to create a more inclusive society and a more sustainable planet. 7/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  I have offered two specific areas of priority in inclusion and sustainability that the confluence of finance and technology can focus on: cross-border payments and ESG data. I hope many of you will step forward to apply your creative energies and technological skills to make progress in these two areas. You will find in Singapore and in MAS a welcoming partner to explore and test-bed ideas. Before I close, I would like to take this opportunity to make a pitch for the upcoming Singapore FinTech Festival. The Festival will be held in Singapore from 2 to 4 November this year.

I have been informed by the Chairman of Equity Capital Resources (ECR) Plc that the Company intends to list ECRUT on the stock exchange in the near future. When this commendable intention is achieved, ECRUT will be the first collective investment scheme to be publicly traded on the Stock Exchange in Zambia. With the calibre of men and women behind this investment vehicle, I am confident this will be achieved in the required time frame. When that time comes we want to turn back to this day and say “we were part of the birth of ECRUT”. The existence of the ECRUT shall provide means of resource mobilisation, bringing on board a collection of individual participation in the capital and money markets. This vehicle will  BIS Review 48/2008  1  facilitate the participation of investors who previously were not capable of participating in highly denominated securities in the financial sector. Ladies and Gentlemen, before I end my speech, let me quickly touch on an important aspect of collective investment schemes, that is, investor confidence in the managers and the industry itself. I believe by far this is the most important factor in whether a scheme can attract and maintain long-term investors. There must be a strong regulatory framework. Whereas there is a strong regulatory body in the Securities and Exchange Commission that vigorously administers the law to protect investors, fund managers must be committed to strong self-regulation and exercise professional ethics to the best interests of investors. This, Chairperson, is fundamental.
I would then like to say a few words about the proposed revisions to the capital requirements for international banks, announced last week by the Basel Committee; not just because it is topical but also because these capital requirements are central to the stability of the system and its capacity to withstand shocks; and as cautious central bankers it is important to take stock from time to time. US & UK Economic Ties As a very open economy, and one with close trade and investment links with the US, especially in the financial sector, the UK is a keen observer of events here. While much has been made in recent years of globalisation, the links between the US and UK are long-standing and deep-rooted, not least in the financial sector. For many years US financial institutions have been among the biggest players in the City. US firms take the top three positions in London as bookrunners in international bond and equity issues, and as arrangers of syndicated credits. Through their dynamism and innovation, US firms also play a major role both in maintaining London's pre-eminence as an international financial centre and as a potent force for strengthening the competitiveness of the UK's own financial institutions. Our interest in the continued financial strength of US firms is thus clear. Foreign banks are similarly active in US markets. For example, they account for 40% of the US syndicated loan market regularly surveyed by the Fed.

We think, however, that such fears of procyclicality are exaggerated and are more than matched by the other benefits from the new regime - in particular, the reduced opportunities for regulatory arbitrage and the incentives given to banks to strengthen their risk management. Moreover, a number of factors seem likely to mute the impact of the new proposals on the cycle. First, many banks have a buffer of capital well above the regulatory minimum. Second, in a recession, demand for bank credit may anyway fall. Third, to the extent that banks (and ratings agencies) assign assets to risk categories in a forward looking manner, it should be possible to avoid wholesale reclassifications to lower credit-risk categories during cyclical downturns, particularly those of normal amplitude. Conclusion The new Accord will make a significant contribution to strengthening the international system. But even under the current Accord, banks should find themselves better placed than in the past to deal with any sudden downturn. A soft landing for the US still seems the most likely outcome but the system is in far better shape now than a decade ago to absorb, if necessary, a somewhat harder bump. I am not complacent and you can rely on the Bank of England to remain vigilant, whatever the outcome. 4  BIS Review 4/2001
Monetary policy is caught between loosening to return output to potential and tightening to return inflation to target. Which wins out depends, crucially, on the relative weight placed on these twin objectives in the policy rule. When inflation deviations are given greatest weight, monetary policy tightens materially. When output deviations are given greatest weight, monetary policy scarcely tightens at all. 16  Unlike Díez et al (2018), we use the reported data on staff costs in our firm-level dataset when calculating the labour share. A recent exception would be the work of Mongey (2018). Burgess et al (2013). 19 Taylor (1993). 17 18  9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  9  With monetary policy facing this trade-off, it follows that an increased prevalence of mark-up shocks would leave policymakers somewhat constrained in their ability to smooth the economy. Put differently, a sequence of trade-off inducing mark-up shocks would tend to worsen the trade-off between output and inflation variability, for a given monetary policy rule. The “Taylor curve” frontier of policy possibilities would be expected to shift outwards. 20  To illustrate that, we can conduct a counterfactual simulation of the effects of mark-up shocks on the course of output, inflation and interest rate variability. Chart 14 shows the variability of inflation and the output gap (the black dot) generated by the model. It also shows the variability of output and inflation when the economy is re-simulated having “switched-off” the shocks to firm mark-ups identified by the model (the red symbols).

I have been impressed by how they have focussed on products in which they can add value and exploit their comparative advantage – whether a company in Northern Ireland exporting wall heaters to the newly rich of Shanghai and Beijing, a manufacturer in the North-West exploiting a patent for paint which is resistant to very high temperatures, or a company in the Potteries passionate about the plates they make for the hotel and restaurant trade. And if you want a digger, why look further than a JCB? Proof that vehicle assembly in the West Midlands can be successful. All of them – as all of you – are working in a highly competitive environment. It is indeed much harder to run a business than to run a central bank. But seeing those companies at first hand has made me even more convinced that our duty is to ensure that you do not experience the macroeconomic instabilities of the past and that we keep inflation on track to meet our 2% target. Stability is in your interest just as much as mine. Speeches on monetary policy rarely whet the appetite for a good meal, and I apologise for that before the splendid dinner your Chamber is about to serve. But tonight has been an opportunity to share our analysis of the economic situation with you. I hope you will understand the reasons behind our decisions to raise interest rates over recent months, even if it goes against the grain to support them.
The bond market and other markets where there is direct contact between borrower and lender will gain a competitive advantage. New requirements for banks must also be followed up, again with improved regulation. The group comprising the twenty largest economies in the world 8 are now discussing how to tackle the crisis and prevent it happening again. It will be important to avoid protectionism and trade wars. Moreover, the ambition is to establish a new and more sustainable financial architecture. Markets are integrated and banks are global, while the supervisory authorities are national and the application of rules varies. Supervisory authorities must be strengthened and adopt a uniform approach to banks, and regulations must be improved. National supervisory authorities have tended to be reluctant to impose stringent requirements on their banks for fear that their competitiveness will deteriorate. It is important to avoid such slippage in the rules towards an agreed minimum level that is too low. For Norway, it is essential that rules are applied stringently and uniformly in all the Nordic countries since banks based in Sweden and Denmark have large market shares in Norway and Norwegian banks have ambitions in Scandinavia. In recent years, there has been little cooperation across countries in the field of macroeconomic policy. The view has been that all is well as long as each country keeps its own house in order.

Second, the takaful industry must conduct itself in a way that alleviates, not add, to the hardship of customers. I would make this same remark to insurers and takaful operators alike, but with its very essence of kafal emphasising mutual help and assistance, takaful must do more. Our expectation is for the industry to consistently deliver best-in-class and superior customer experience. It makes perfect business sense for positive customer experience to be at the heart of the industry’s strategy. This is true for any business, but even more important for a product that most people do not normally seek out to buy. McKinsey & Co. estimates that globally, insurers that consistently offer best-in-class customer experience produce up to four times more growth in new business. They are also 30% more profitable than those who do it inconsistently. What the research underscores is the importance of being accessible, empathetic, fast and reliable. Not just when selling, but also when providing after sales service and processing claims. In this day and age, customers can hail a taxi ride in five minutes and have their food delivered in 30 minutes. Complaints on service are responded to within the same day, if not within minutes. Quality and response to services are forever being transformed by technological advances. It is thus unacceptable that service in the takaful industry is delivered slowly.