samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In order to underpin this viewpoint, the most far-fetched reasons are put forward, such as the cases of other countries in the region that concluded agreements with the IMF or the statement that the Bulgarian and Romanian currencies have depreciated against the US dollar, even though the Bulgarian currency is pegged to the euro and fluctuates against the US dollar at the same rate as the euro, while the RON is traded against the euro. To a certain extent, this approach is similar to that used during 1998-1999. There is however a fundamental difference, despite its being mentioned only occasionally, namely that Romania’s foreign exchange reserves are currently higher than its whole stock of public debt. Therefore, by implementing appropriate domestic policies, Romania is likely to move past this period in better conditions than in 1999. I strongly believe this for yet another reason: the past decade as a whole – covered together with Ziarul Financiar – marked significant progress for Romania. We should not overlook that our country witnessed economic growth in nine years out of ten, while annual GDP growth rates exceeded 5 percent in seven years out of ten. The three-digit inflation rates of the early ’90s dropped to single-digit levels in recent years. Moreover, Romania’s joining NATO and the European Union also places it in a political context underpinning sustainable economic growth. This year’s gross domestic product will  BIS Review 161/2008  1  amount to nearly EUR 140 billion, i.e. EUR 6,500 per capita.

The average rate of change in the last three years is still negative in countries like Slovenia, Hungary, Latvia, Croatia, Bulgaria, indicating that some structural obstacles, such as high NPLS, new regulatory requirements, deleveraging of the private sector, still act as drag for a stronger credit revival. Also, cleaning up of the balance sheet of the banks may to some extent distort the data on the credit support. In order to make a qualitative dynamic review of the main forces behind the lending behavior of the banks in the region, we do a recap of the main findings of the CESEE Bank Lending Survey from 2013 until present day4. The recap points to several important conclusions. First, credit supply from being tight in the second half of 2013, was gradually eased until the first half of 2015. Afterwards it stabilized, and no major changes were observed. In all of the surveys, including the last one for the first half of 2016, the new regulatory environment and capital constraints, as well as the NPL ratio are pointed as key factors which adversely impact supply conditions. Second, demand for credits was improving throughout the whole period, since the second half of 2014 in particular. Furthermore, since 2015 credit demand for investments purposes is also visible, signaling positive structural shifts. Third, access to funding of the banks, in general was not signaled as problem even at the beginning of the survey, indicating that funding problems that emerged at the beginning of the global crisis were alleviated.
This is precisely what we try to do in our financial stability reports, which allow us to gain an overall vision of vulnerabilities, although, once again, it does not provide a final verdict. Finally, new financial realities require new sets of information to examine, or to compile when not available. 9 Crisis management That this is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression nobody disputes. Moreover, the initial shock on the global economy does not differ much from the one that hit in the 1930s. There are many similarities in the initial conditions and effects of the two (Eichengreen and O’Rourke, 2009; IMF, 2009). Worth noting are the initial fall in manufacturing output and trade, the collapse of stock prices and credit, and the increase in bond spreads. In their origins there was also the same rapid expansion in credit and financial innovation that increased the leverage of financial intermediaries. These remarkable similarities in the first months of this crisis were alarming. However, both differ in the subsequent evolution of the global economy. 10 Between 1930 and 1932, world activity (measured at PPP) dropped by an average of 4.8%. In particular, the U.S. experienced an average annual fall of 9.9%.

So there are numerous factors to consider. It is also important to realise that adjustments to the new technology do not occur automatically. The new facilities will not necessarily be utilised in such a way that the effects suddenly show up in general economic development. A proper transformation presupposes that the right driving forces are in place and that other important requirements have already been met. Otherwise the so-called new economy may mean difficulties rather than opportunities. A lack of adaptability can result instead in the economy being weaker and more susceptible to inflation. In other words, if the global economy faces Sweden with stronger international competition and demands for change and the necessary renewal of the capital stock and production facilities does not happen, our economy will be liable to lag behind. I should like to consider two factors that I believe will be significant for Sweden’s growth path after the turn of the millennium, namely wage formation and a functional financial system. Of course there are other factors of importance for the future growth path, such as the construction of taxes and how the education system performs. They obviously have to be discussed as well. I have chosen to consider wage formation because wages make up approximately 70% of total costs in the economy, which makes them a major determinant of the profit level; profits in turn are important for the development of investment. The functioning of the financial system has a bearing on the possibility of financing new investment at a reasonable cost.
Some factors have also been procyclical so that problems in the financial sector have had a negative impact on the real economy and vice versa. In good times, there is almost always a tendency to expand the provision of credit and to dismiss the risks this entails. However, when the downturn comes, the same players tend to run for the exit at the same time, which serves only to make the overall situation worse. Some of the characteristics of the financial regulations, for example the capital adequacy requirements and certain accounting regulations, have reinforced these tendencies towards herd behaviour among the financial players. We have been aware of these problems for a long time, but there have been no effective mechanisms for counteracting them. Nor have the supervisory arrangements adequately reflect the increased internationalisation of the financial sector. In recent decades, the financial markets have become increasingly interlinked and large, complex financial institutions now conduct extensive operations in several countries. At the same time, supervision has mainly been conducted on the basis of national mandates and focused on companies within individual, national jurisdictions. Supervision has thus lacked the oversight required. In the wake of the crisis, a number of initiatives have therefore been taken that aim to create a clearer link between the supervision that focuses on institutions and the more system-oriented supervision of stability, and to sharpen the tools we use to promote stability in general. So what needs to be done?

The persistent slippages do not augur well for the July 2005 deadline for the launch of the Second Monetary Zone. In this regard, it is imperative that all hands be put on deck in pursuing the monetary integration project. As legislators, your involvement in enacting the enabling legislation that would form the legal underpinning for the policies, programmes and institutional framework for the monetary union will be critical. In this connection, the national parliaments should set up as a matter of urgency, research units comprising economists and financial experts to provide the requisite professional back-stopping for them. 2  BIS Review 43/2004  Conclusion Ladies and Gentlemen, Once more, I welcome you all to Freetown and wish you a pleasant stay. It is my singular honour and privilege to declare open the third Regional Forum on Economic and Financial Management for Legislators. BIS Review 43/2004  3
It turned out to be "everybody's and nobody's" but de facto it belonged to those with the largest political power. In line with those principles of the system, credit plans directed the reserve money issuance, rather than it to be determined by economic fundamentals: economic growth, internal and external balances, supply and demand, real market values. Printing of money was also dictated by the debtors, which did not repay the credits, but issued bills of exchange which at the end were borne by the reserve money issuance, then the extremely soft budget constraints, direct lending to whole economic sectors, and even certain companies, from the reserve money issuance, at interest rates significantly below the inflation rate. Instead of the debtors, often their creditors went bankrupt, with the intention to preserve social rest, or to postpone social unrest. Therefore, the end of 1980s and the beginning of 1990s, followed by the development since then until present day, have been years of Schumpeter's destruction, positive destruction - regardless of our dissatisfaction with the slow pace of the reforms and jeopardized social security, which, I would agree, did not have to erode to such an extent, before the new solutions started to give better results.

Conclusion The recent crisis put front and center the rising economic power of emerging countries. It has also demonstrated the vulnerabilities within the global system, especially across financial markets. Financial stability becomes a major concern for policy makers, which has the potential to reshape the monetary policy framework of central banks. Significant steps have been undertaken, but significant progress is still needed to tackle global imbalances. That involves not only revisiting economic policies, but also economic and institutional infrastructure that shapes them. As the quest for a new global order continues both in theoretical and practical levels; the predictability, balance and sustainability of the new global order will depend on the cooperative and coordinated efforts to establish a well-represented infrastructure. Thank you for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
A bank may be well-capitalised and profitable with a sound loan book, but if depositors lose confidence in the bank’s ability to provide their funds as and when they request them, the crystallisation of liquidity risk can bring down an otherwise viable institution in short order. Once underway, a liquidity crisis can be very hard to stop. Adverse dynamics may feed back on themselves as the limited offer of immediate, full repayment awaits those first to the exit. Moreover, liquidity risk can be triggered through the realisation of other risks, such as the disclosure of large and unexpected trading losses, or the discovery of fraudulent activity within the bank. But it is just as likely to develop independently through the simple combination of an inherently vulnerable funding position and a sudden (and not necessarily rational) turn in market sentiment. These considerations illustrate why it is of crucial importance to build strong defences against this risk, particularly as the macro-economic and financial market developments of the past few years have in my view led to an increase in many banks’ overall vulnerability to liquidity risk. And whilst this changing environment has led to distinct improvements in banks’ efficiency and management of other risks, liquidity risk management and supervision have not always kept pace. Recent events have clearly demonstrated that the current defences have proved wanting, with banks insufficiently prepared for a period of severe liquidity strain.

These two trends, non financial actors leveraging up and greater risk taking by financial institutions, are indeed global trends. Within the euro area, credit distribution (bonds and loans) to the private sector has remained the most dynamic in France, resulting in a gradual but persistent increase in debt ratios. 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  More recently, credit has been getting some traction in other economies so that French developments may be informative of forthcoming developments elsewhere. In all cases, the concern is less about an immediate risk that one regarding the sustainability of the current developments. These are indeed medium-term trends deserving serious attention alongside other medium-term developments such as digitalization or climate change. The former (digitalization) hold very promising prospects in terms of efficiency, inclusiveness and quality of consumer services, etc. It is also a formidable challenge for the incumbents, threatening established positions and questioning business models. Depending on the reactivity of the various stakeholders, (traditional financial institutions, new players, established players in other sectors making a foray into financial services, regulators, etc. ), this challenge can be satisfactorily overcome or leave the whole financial system in a rather precarious situation. The latter (climate change) is a tremendous challenge that will contribute to reshaping the global economy and, more broadly society. This challenge is so significant that it is bound to have consequences for the financial system both as a risk concern and as a business issue.
Finally, though perhaps over a longer time frame, an expansion in net exports is desirable, in order to rebalance the composition of demand and reduce the UK current account deficit. Let me say a little about each of these in turn. Business investment fell by almost a third in the recession, reflecting the generalised collapse in demand, heightened uncertainty and restricted availability of credit. Although those headwinds have eased considerably, business investment in 2013 was still only just over 1% above its 2010 level. Now it is not too surprising that business investment has been slow to pick up. That is typically the case in business cycle recoveries, as businesses will want to use up spare capacity and to be confident that improved business conditions will persist before they undertake capital expenditures that may be costly to reverse. And the path of business investment so far looks pretty typical, once one takes account of the protracted nature of the downturn in activity. Moreover, there are signs that the desired handoff to business investment is under way. According to the latest official estimates, business investment rose 8.5% over the past year, while investment intentions surveys suggest that this revival is likely to continue through this year (Chart 3). And lending and capital market conditions have improved, especially for larger companies, though some SMEs continue to report difficulty in accessing credit on reasonable terms.

6  “Accredited investor” refers to an individual with net personal assets exceeding $ million or a corporation with total net assets of more than $ million. 7  “Qualified investor” means an individual with net personal assets exceeding $ million, a corporation with total net assets of more than $ million, a collective investment scheme that is marketed only to accredited investors, or a collective investment scheme that is not marketed in Singapore. 8  Brooks, C. and H.M. Kat, 2001, “The Statistical Properties of Hedge Fund Index Returns and Their Implications for Investors”. BIS Review 52/2002  3  To enhance disclosure in prospectuses for offers of investments (including hedge funds), Part XIII of the SFA which came into effect in July this year introduced new prospectus checklists, prospectus registration procedures and advertising regulations. A prospectus must contain all material information that a reasonable investor would require to make an informed investment decision, such as the investment objective and specific investment risks of a fund, the fees and charges, and the track record of the fund manager. For the market to exercise discipline on prospectus disclosure, prospectuses that are lodged with MAS are posted on the MAS web-site for public comment for a minimum two weeks. We view this as an advance in speed and efficiency. As a safeguard, MAS may refuse to register a prospectus if it does not satisfy the disclosure requirements or if its registration is not in the public interest.
I would like to add a few words on the bad controversy that had surrounded the Sapin II law, and which now luckily seems to be behind us. Much has been said about the measure which gave the possibility to the Haut Conseil de stabilité financière (HCSF) to limit life insurance withdrawals in the event of a crisis, and which was, according to some, an impingement on French citizens’ freedom to dispose of their savings. These allegations were, perhaps, temporarily detrimental to life insurance; it would therefore be in your interest as professionals to point out, against certain populist excesses, the truth, which you know: these powers are only intended to be used in serious and exceptional circumstances, to better protect the rights of policyholders. Here again, our concern is to preserve stability. II. The essential role of insurers in the financing of our economy The insurance sector is the largest institutional investor in the euro area, with total assets of close to EUR 7,800 billion in the second quarter of 2017, of which more than EUR 2,600 billion for the French market alone. Better steering these flows to sectors that need long-term financing 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  is essential for our economy. What comes to mind are infrastructures, of course, but also companies, which need more equity financing to be able to innovate more: as innovation is more risky, it is financed through capital rather than debt.

The role of insurers in the digitalisation of our economy It is essential for our economy to adapt to the digital revolution: it creates incredible opportunities, but with them, new risks against which the insurance sector, once again, can bring stability and protection. I would like to discuss two subjects in particular: Firstly, cyber-insurance. The cyber-insurance market is still underdeveloped. Insurers can and should take inspiration from their own experiences in tackling cyber-risk, and use it to develop a more mature French and European cyber-insurance offering. The coverage against cyber-risk is a very real concern that affects all companies – both small and large – as cyber-attacks are becoming increasingly frequent and costly: according to figures from Euler-Hermès, 57% of French companies were victims of these attacks in 2016, compared with 32% in 2015. We at the Banque de France, alongside the Eurosystem and our G7 colleagues, have made cybersecurity one of our strategic priorities. And secondly, personal data and big data. Naturally, the spread of connected objects that is triggering an exponential rise in the amount of data available on insurance policyholders represents an opportunity for the business of insurance, which consists precisely in collecting and exploiting data in order to quantify and put a price on risk. Nonetheless, I would urge insurers to take a responsible approach: we need to strike the right balance between segmentation and the sharing of risk between policyholders. The basic principles of solidarity and risk-pooling that are intrinsic to insurance are at stake.
This is because the transmission of monetary policy decisions to the economy takes place with relatively long lags. Estimates of these lags between interest rate changes and their effects on inflation vary between one and two years. As a consequence, central banks have to look ahead before they take monetary policy decisions. A case in point was the recent decision by several continental central banks, including the Banque de France, to raise their main refinancing rates on 9th October. This move was justified by the need to pre-empt inflationary pressures early enough, although current inflation remained low. In my view it is very important to make the public aware of the concept of the “pre-emptive strike”, which is at the heart of central banking. 1.2. Intermediate target: more arguments in favour of monetary targeting, with a caveat In order to provide an anchor to inflation expectations and to look ahead, central banks make public an intermediate target which they commit themselves to respecting. Announcing an intermediate target also enhances the accountability of the central bank. This is why Article 12 of the Statute of the ECB explicitly refers to decisions relating to intermediate monetary objectives as one of the main responsibilities of the Governing Council of the ECB.

However, the digitalisation path should be pursued after a cost-benefit analysis, having regard to the risks and additional costs that are taken on. It should, moreover, be accompanied by processes that allow for the identification, monitoring and mitigation of such risks, in such a way that ensures they are included in price-setting models. In sum, any effort geared to obtaining comprehensive knowledge of the profitability of the activity being pursued and to refining price-setting processes with a long-term vision will be time well spent. That said, while the foregoing condition is necessary for ensuring sustained, profitable activity over time, it is not however a sufficient one. The analysis must, moreover, be strategically oriented to anticipating future changes. Reflection is needed on the capacity of banks to manage and strategically focus the business. A strategic reflection Reflection on the business model should allow medium and long-term objectives to be set and a path plotted towards attaining these objectives. Appropriate business models are those that generate recurring and sustained profitability over time, this being the fundamental pillar for the organic generation of capital. This is the virtuous circle that must be drawn and, to do this, banks’ management bodies will have to take the necessary measures enabling them to face a changing and demanding future. This task will involve taking into account all factors that may affect how the bank pursues its business, and everything that defines its environment which, by definition, is a changing one.