samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
3 It may be worth noting that Sweden, together with countries like Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Norway, belongs to a group of small open economies with floating exchange rates and inflation targets that have relatively similar challenges and problems: Via free capital movement, we have imported low real interest rates, there is downward pressure on inflation via, among other things, globalisation, private debt is high and there are problems on the housing market. 2 [21]  When you have to choose between “leaning against the wind” and the inflation target One of the conclusions from the global financial crisis is that financial factors and conditions must be given higher priority in economic analysis and be considered to a greater extent when designing economic policy. Above all, the crisis was a signal that greater effort must be made to avoid financial imbalances causing problems on the macro level. The most concrete expression from this was the emergence of macroprudential policy, which, in contrast to traditional supervision of individual banks and financial institutions, focuses on the entire financial system and the economy as a whole. 4 Some of the discussion has been about the extent to which monetary policy should be used to counteract the build-up of financial imbalances, for example a substantial and sustained credit expansion.

Ineffective regulation of financial markets led to unrestrained growth in global liquidity, rising indebtedness ratios and formation of systemic risks in financial markets. Lack of transparency in financial transactions blurred the boundaries of who owes what to whom, preventing the proper valuation of risks. Failure of credit rating agencies, inadequacy of risk assessment methods in addressing systemic risks and pro-cyclical accounting standards overtook prudential measures. BIS Review 73/2010  1  To put a long story short, if you look for a snapshot of the roots of this crisis in one simple statement, it is nothing but “households consuming the present value of their future wealth, which they do not actually possess in the first place”. In the aftermath of this crisis, households have increased precautionary savings to cover their debts and clean their balance sheets. This has caused a very sharp negative demand shock, especially in advanced economies. Furthermore, a significant part of the real sector was not able to pay off their debt leading to large-scale write-offs in the financial sector. In response, governments have both increased public spending to offset the fall in domestic demand and bailed out troubled financial institutions to prevent the collapse of the financial system. In other words, they have acted as both “consumer-of-last-resort” and “lender-oflast-resort” at the same time. By doing so governments have prevented a repeat of the Global Depression that we experienced in the 1930s.
Finally, let me offer a couple of specific lessons from the SNB’s gold sales that underline the benefits of transparency. Total official gold holdings by central banks and governments today account for approximately ten times the annual worldwide production of gold. Prospects of official gold sales therefore have an inherent ability to destabilize the gold market. The initial Washington Agreement and the follow up agreement have demonstrated that official sales are best conducted in the context of a clear and transparent overall framework. While the terms of the agreement were not rigid in their nature, they provided sufficient guidance to the gold market to prevent excessive market volatility. In the event that official gold sales continue to be meaningful beyond the current central bank agreement, a new set of parameters will have to be established upon its expiry. Moreover, should the IMF or any other official institution decide to sell substantial gold reserves during the next couple of year, it strikes me as essential that such additional sales get incorporated into the existing framework. Even within a broad international framework, national sales are best conducted on the basis of a clear and transparent sales strategy. In the case of the SNB, the specific sales programs evolved over time but the principles of regularity and transparency were maintained throughout. Market participants knew at all times what the SNB was doing with regard to its gold sales. Moreover, the market knew how the sales were conducted.

Central banks have an additional stake in this game. Cash is one of our main products and an increased supply of services from non-banks is likely to reduce its usage. On the one hand, central bank should embrace the development from an efficiency point of view. On the other, a rapid decrease in the use of cash is not without problems. This is only a few of the aspects that may be debated in the second session. The third topic is the future and we all want to know what it will look like. Will the banks be reduced to mere suppliers of infrastructure and account holding services while other actors, the non-banks, have most of the end-user relation-ship? Or will the banks win by knock-out? Will the non-banks become banks over time as their activity expands? Will payment services be delivered to us by Apple? Google? Facebook? Alibaba? What about Bitcoin and its peers? Will we simply have payment services provided by an anonymous network? In addition to having all these kinds of issue debated among representatives for market actors and authorities, we will also have the pleasure of listening to the academic perspective of Professor Charles M. Kahn from the University of Illinois. I’m really looking forward to learning more about all these topics today. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Notes 1  “A Conversation: The Fed Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow,” a discussion with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the Fed’s 100th anniversary, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., Jan. 16, 2014. 2  See “The Next Default Wave: Slow and Low,” in The HY Wire, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Sept. 24, 2014. 3  The following charts illustrate the recent acceleration in wage growth (Chart 1) and the relationship between rising wage growth and falling unemployment (Chart 2). For more information, see the Dallas Fed Economic Letter titled “Are We There Yet? Assessing Progress Toward Full Employment and Price Stability,” available at www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/eclett/2014/el1413.pdf. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  4  See “The Federal Reserve’s Experiment in Quantitative Easing Is Coming to an End,” by Ylan Q. Mui, The Washington Post, WonkBlog, Oct. 28, 2014. 5  If you wish to read that speech in its entirety, www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs130604.cfm. 6  See “The Limits of Monetary Policy: ‘Monetary Policy Responsibility Cannot Substitute for Government Irresponsibility’,” remarks by Richard W. Fisher, Jan. 12, 2011. BIS central bankers’ speeches  it  can  be  found  at  7

The enhanced and robust competition in the marketplace would lead to greater consumer benefits in terms of improved business efficiency, product development and service quality. It is envisioned that the achievement of these imperatives will ensure that the Malaysian takaful industry is well-positioned to successfully make the transition from being "good-to-great" and, InsyaAllah, will remain as the global leader for takaful and retakaful. Ladies and Gentlemen, The overarching objective of our regulatory policies is to ensure that the financial system is in a position to serve the public with the best range and quality of products and services, that the interest of the consumer is at all times protected, and that best practices are adopted to ensure the soundness and stability of the system. It must be emphasised, however, that the ultimate responsibility for ensuring this rests on the players in the financial system, in particular, the Senior Management and the Board of Directors. This is particularly important to ensure public confidence in the efficiency and performance of the financial system to contribute to the overall development of the economy. The initiative formulated for the takaful industry in strengthening competition through the creation of new takaful players, is aimed at achieving this overarching objective. The presence of players with the right qualities and calibre in the marketplace is part of the process of ensuring product innovation and service excellence.
Durmuş Yılmaz: Access to finance and capital markets development Speech by Mr Durmuş Yılmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the XIIth Euro-Mediterranean Conference on Economic Transition, Bruxelles, 20 February 2008. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, Over the last two decades, we have witnessed a dramatic shift towards internationally integrated financial markets. In today’s world, asset prices and domestic interest rates have become increasingly determined by international developments rather than domestic factors. A sharp expansion in the scale of capital flows is one manifestation of this integration. Another indicator is the pace of financial innovation and corresponding surge in new financial instruments and markets. This rapid growth in financial markets has been accompanied by massive economic and financial deregulation, which has enabled financial institutions to move beyond national borders, making the conduct of monetary policy more complicated. In this rapidly changing financial environment, the position of a central bank in the financial system has become an important issue to address. It is generally accepted by many central bankers that the primary objective of the monetary policy should be to achieve and maintain price stability. Here, what is meant by price stability is low and stable inflation. Most central banks also acknowledge that they have a significant responsibility for ensuring a stable financial environment in which both financial and non-financial institutions operate. Unlike the primary mandate (price stability), the precise meaning of the second mandate is more elusive.

Philipp M Hildebrand: Developing countries and international capital markets Summary of a speech by Mr Philipp M Hildebrand, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, to economiesuisse, Zurich, 14 June 2005. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  After having plummeted on the back of the Asian crisis, capital flows to developing countries have risen considerably again in the last three years. In 2005, they are likely to reach the approximate level at which they stood shortly before the Asian crisis. Capital flows are channelled mostly to a few emerging markets, notably China. China’s monetary order is currently undergoing profound changes, with the country gradually liberalising capital movements. The concept of the “impossible trinity”, which was developed by the Nobel Prize winner Robert Mundell, asserts that this will inevitably lead either to a loss in monetary autonomy or to a flexibilisation of the exchange rate regime. Both trends can be clearly observed: the pressure on the fixed exchange rate on the one hand, and the rapid expansion of the monetary and credit aggregates on the other. In the longer term, China’s monetary order will probably move towards floating exchange rates. This transition will hopefully be successful. As China’s monetary policy of gradual change has so far proved its worth, it is likely to serve as an example to other developing countries.
This is an implicit part of what Chairman Bernanke was communicating at the National Press Club – until financial stability could be restored, the ability to achieve the goals of maximum employment and price stability through the monetary transmission mechanism were beyond the Federal Reserve’s reach. Accordingly, the Federal Reserve used its monetary policy tools to lower the targeted Fed funds rate to zero. In addition, the Federal Reserve used its lender of last resort authorities in new and creative ways to restore financial stability to the U.S. economy. When the crisis in the United States abated in late 2009, following the successful introduction of stress testing, the Federal Reserve began to speak about terminating some of its emergency facilities. These facilities had been introduced during the “whatever it takes” era, and when the Federal Reserve was executing the delicate task of winding these facilities down, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made clear that financial stability remained a key objective. For example, the Committee said in its release of December 16, 2009 that “[t]he Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these [wind down] plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth.”4 The legal basis for deriving implied powers from the penumbra of other express powers is best seen in Justice Douglas classic opinion in Griswold v. Connecticut.5 In the Griswold case, the United States Supreme Court struck down a Connecticut law prohibiting the use of contraception.

The good news is that Malaysia's Financial Capability and Literacy Index score has improved since the last survey. But behind that index score are much more layered observations of our society's financial attitudes and behaviours. And they reveal that putting financial knowledge into the hands of individuals is just the start. Helping people use that knowledge wisely and effectively in order to bring about lasting changes in behaviour is the race that all of us here are running together - to help as many people as possible reach the finish line of their financial goals. More details on the results of the 2021 FCI Survey will be available in the upcoming publication of Bank Negara Malaysia's Financial Stability Review which will happen in the coming week. 4. For those of you who may not be familiar with the Financial Education Network, or FEN, we are an inter-agency platform of eight partner institutions that are committed to raising the level of financial literacy in Malaysia. In 2019, FEN developed a five-year National Strategy for Financial Literacy which is currently in its fourth year. 5. Let me take the opportunity to recap the aims of the National Strategy. They are to empower Malaysians to: first, save, manage and protect their money; second, plan ahead to secure a sustainable future; and third, protect against fraud and financial scams. 6. Fast forward four years, and these goals are as, if not more, relevant today.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Now I would like to review recent developments in the local and national economies, and at the end of my talk will be happy to answer any questions you have. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee. Regional employment and economic trends First, let’s talk about economic trends in New York City. The City’s economy showed resilience both during and after this last severe recession. Payroll employment fell sharply in 2008 and 2009; it bounced back, slowly at first, but by July of 2011, the City’s economy had recovered to its pre-recession employment peak and, in November, it eclipsed its previous all-time peak of 1969. Since then, employment has continued to grow strongly, rising at a roughly 2 percent annual pace and outpacing the national growth rate. The demand for labor has been driven by start-ups, tech, health care and business services. While Superstorm Sandy caused substantial damage to homes and the region’s infrastructure and severe economic disruptions in late 2012, the local economy as a whole bounced back quickly. Despite the robust job growth, the unemployment rate among City residents has been persistently high – though it did fall to 8.0 percent in December, nearly a 5-year low.

Benoît Cœuré: Interview in Le Progrès de Lyon and EBRA newspaper group Interview with Mr Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, conducted by Mr Frank Viart of Le Progrès de Lyon and published by EBRA newspaper group (L’Alsace, Les Dernières Nouvelles d’Alsace, Le Républicain Lorrain, L'Est Républicain, Vosges Matin, Le Bien Public, Le Journal de Saône-et-Loire, Le Progrès de Lyon, Le Dauphiné Libéré and Vaucluse Matin) on 11 November 2016. * * *  Seen from Frankfurt, what is your reaction to the election of Donald Trump? It is certainly a major event. It is not for the ECB to assess the political consequences. But it holds a lesson for Europe: in a world where shocks are increasing, Europe must keep control of its destiny. For Europe to be strong in terms of defence and security, it must have a strong economy. And for the economy to be strong, reforms are needed in every country and the euro area must function better. Could the ECB’s monetary policy decision in December be influenced by this election result? It is too early to say. In the short term we are closely monitoring the reaction of the financial markets. Excessive volatility must be avoided. Looking ahead, we will assess the consequences of Mr Trump’s election for the global economy and for the euro area. The recovery in the euro area is strengthening. This was visible following the UK referendum. In France, interest rates are historically low.
Trade activity, which was once itself a catalyst of growth is now lacklustre. This was evidenced by the slower growth in global trade activity relative to global growth, as reflected in the decline in trade intensity from 1.6 times between 2002 and 2007 to just around 1 time between 2011 and 2015. Trade activity in the 1990s was driven mainly by trade of intermediate goods following the proliferation of global value chains, driven in part by the ICT revolution. However, the expansion of global value chains has slowed with increasing on-shoring of manufacturing activity. Global trade has also been dampened by weaker investment growth in several major advanced economies and China’s efforts in rebalancing its economy. Given these cyclical weaknesses and structural shifts, the prospects for global growth and trade are expected to remain challenging going forward. In fact, the World Trade Organisation has projected for world trade to grow by only around 3% in 2016 and 2017. Global risks have also increased significantly. In a globalised and digitalised world, higher interconnectedness and integration have resulted in greater transmission and amplification of risks. Country-specific risks have become more eminent as they could generate broader contagion effects. Ongoing global developments such as policy adjustments in several major economies, volatile commodity price movements and geopolitical tensions have compounded the uncertainties surrounding the global economy. Although baseline growth forecasts are already relatively low, the materialisation of these downside risks could nudge growth even lower.

For example, a team of New York Fed economists published a series earlier this year aimed at understanding the gap in COVID-19 intensity by race and by income.3 And last month, they shared their findings around racial differences in ICU stress during the third wave of COVID-19.4 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  There’s no single or simple solution that can fully address these problems. But, as a nation we can build a stronger foundation so that everyone can fulfill their economic potential, thus better enabling the Federal Reserve to fulfill its mandate. That’s why at the New York Fed—and across the Federal Reserve System—a key area of focus is to better understand economic drivers of health and wellbeing, and to champion promising solutions. We are able to do this in large part through our Community Development efforts to better understand the needs and issues of low- and moderate-income communities throughout our District. Our Community Development team recently adopted a new strategy to concentrate on three key areas: health, household income, and climate.5 Our aim is to connect people, programs, and proposals—especially those focused on fostering racial equity—with the funding needed to promote equitable growth and tackle economic inequality. We are already doing important work in this space and there is so much planned for the future.
Interest rates on lending have remained very low, although in the latest rounds of the Eurosystem’s Bank Lending Survey, banks have reported a slight tightening of credit standards and expected them to possibly tighten further in the coming quarters  We must also continue to monitor developments in the exchange rate with regard to their possible implications for the medium-term inflation outlook. Although the upward pressure on the euro has eased in recent weeks, the euro has gradually appreciated since mid-2020. This has led to disinflation pressures at a time when the outlook for euro area inflation was already, as previously mentioned, historically low. As result, on the ECB Governing Council we have reiterated that we will continue to closely monitor developments in the exchange rate. 10  In relation to this framework, I must once again stress the importance of maintaining a high degree of monetary accommodation so that fiscal policy can, in turn, continue to be highly supportive of the euro area economy until a solid recovery is assured. This complementary monetary and fiscal policy action, which we have been insisting on since the start of this crisis and which is proving so important to alleviate its effects, is particularly relevant for countries which had less fiscal headroom at the start of the crisis. A tightening of financing conditions in such countries may prompt a restrictive fiscal policy reaction, as we saw at times during the previous crisis, which would seriously damage the recovery.

Should central banks lower interest rates below this bound, the effect on the economy may be contractionary rather than expansionary, owing to the adverse effects on the financial system as a whole.10 The level of this lower bound on interest rates is not directly observable and varies over time according to the financial sector’s situation. In any event, it represents the floor for central bank interest rate cuts. In Europe, the ECB’s deposit facility rate was already set at -0.5% before the COVID-19 crisis.11 In our statements, we have stressed that this rate could be further lowered in the future. Yet, taking a longer perspective, it seems clear that conventional monetary policy — i.e. that based on controlling the short-term interest rate — has less scope for action in the current context than, for example, a few decades ago. 10  See, for example, Brunnermeier and Koby (2018) for a discussion of the effect of interest rates on banks’ profitability and their ability to lend. 11  Arce et al. (2018) estimate that this level of negative rates does not necessarily reduce the supply of credit by European banks and in particular by Spanish ones. 14  The lower bound on interest rates generates significant asymmetry in monetary policy conduct. As I commented earlier, if inflation rises above its target, central banks may increase interest rates as much as necessary in order to “cool” the economy and reduce inflation to levels compatible with their target.