samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In a world with a core of diversified firms that are more similar, for example, cross-firm exams and horizontal analysis increase in value and supervisors might require broader skills. Moving beyond individual firms, there is the potential for microprudential risks to transform into macroprudential ones. If firms expand, diversify and become more similar, each might become safer individually. The industry as a whole, however, might not be any safer or more resilient. If all firms are effectively the same, they could become “systemic as a herd” and susceptible to the same shocks in a way that leaves the aggregate provision of financial services more volatile.9 The propagation mechanisms for an industry with a set of similar firms with a wider range of activities may be very different from one where firm heterogeneity can offset and smooth the impact of shocks. This suggests that supervisors and regulators should be concerned not just with the firm as an entity, but with the industry as a portfolio of firms where aggregate outcomes reflect both each firm’s individual contribution and correlation properties across firms. Finally, supervisors are concerned about the efficient provision of financial services and the ability of the financial industry to support the real economy. If firms’ mix of activities is overly determined by the regulatory environment, firms will have incentives to expand into activities where they do not have a comparative advantage. As a result, the potential gains of specialization would be lost. This could make the provision of financial services less efficient overall.

By this time next year, I should be able to report progress made in Hong Kong as well as in the international arena. 14. Let me conclude my speech with the big picture: Hong Kong, as the premier IFC in Asia, is uniquely well positioned under the One Country, Two Systems arrangements to benefit from the internationalisation of RMB and the Belt and Road Initiative. Whatever you have seen or witnessed in the past few years is merely the very beginning of a multi-decade long process. China has been on average contributing more than one third of global growth in the past 10 years and is clearly the most powerful engine for growth in the years to come. China has reached a stage that it has the necessary technology and surplus capital for its corporates to “go out”. Hong Kong, which has been the major hub and springboard for foreign corporates to “go into” China since the beginning of China’s reform and opening programme, has now taken up the extremely crucial role of serving as the hub and springboard for China’s new “going out” era. 15. Ladies and gentlemen, it’s a great pleasure to be able to talk to you today. As a treasury market practitioner, you are in the right place at the right time. Hong Kong is a place that will offer enormous headroom for growth.
While we welcome the measures announced at the Eurozone summit in July, further resolute measures to strengthen the banking sector, credibly restore debt sustainability in the Eurozone periphery, and lift long-term growth potential through structural reform are necessary to restore market confidence in the short term and contribute to global growth and stability in the long term. The Fund should be pro-active in proposing solutions and mediating their adoption. We believe that progress in structural reforms will be key to restoring growth in the mediumand long-term. Although each crisis is different, our efforts during the Asian crisis that brought about a relatively fast recovery may provide a useful lesson for countries facing current difficulties. From our experience, the determination to undertake and stick with structural reforms, particularly in the financial sector, was a crucial factor that led to an improvement in confidence, competitiveness and growth. The fund’s response i) Global Financial Safety Nets (GFSN) With substantial downside risks to growth in the global economy and heightened volatility in financial markets, the Fund should assess the adequacy of its resources against expected financing needs. At a minimum, there should be no reduction in Fund resources during this time. In this regard, countries in our constituency which are participants of the New Arrangements to Borrow fully support the extension of the activation period to March 2012. We also regard as particularly relevant the Fund’s work to develop a more coherent response to systemic events, including short-term liquidity provision to crisis bystanders.

Financial stability So what is the outlook for the stability of the Swedish banking system? What would happen if unemployment or interest rates were to rise? Would we see a fast increase in the banks’ loan losses as during the banking crisis? We have concluded in several financial stability reports that there indeed is cause for vigilance as regards developments in household debt, but that we don’t believe that these developments are a threat to the stability of the banking system. There are several reasons for this. One is that just mentioned, namely that we don’t see any obvious speculative tendencies in the housing market, perhaps because households in Sweden don’t have that great an incentive to regard houses and apartments as financial assets. Another reason, which is connected with the first, is quite simply that so far households have never caused the banks such losses that could threaten financial stability. During the crisis years at the beginning of the 1990s, the household sector’s total loan losses were at most 0.7 per cent of the banks’ total lending to that sector. This corresponded to only 7 per cent of the total loan losses. Unlike companies, households can’t go into bankruptcy and shake off their debts (Figure 3). It wasn’t the housing market but the market for commercial property that caused the major losses in the banking system. And this time commercial property prices, instead of shooting up, have actually fallen.
I will explain tax and banking reforms in more detail in the forthcoming parts of my speech. Improving economic productivity is fundamental for achieving price stability and concurrent sustainable growth in the long run, that is to say an increase in real income and welfare. A rise in total factor productivity is expected to be one of the core dynamics of sustainable growth to be attained in the next 10 years in Turkey. The manufacturing industry has recently witnessed a boost in productivity. The critical point here is that increases in productivity should be reflected on all sectors and become sustainable. Therefore, it is very important that labor education and institutional governance is improved through research and development of technology, which will provide a constant increase in total factor productivity. Graph 11: Partial Productivity and Real Earning Indices (1997=100) 170.0 Productivity  150.0  Real Earning  130.0 110.0 90.0 70.0  2004Q3  2004Q1  2003Q3  2003Q1  2002Q3  2002Q1  2001Q3  2001Q1  2000Q3  2000Q1  1999Q3  1999Q1  1998Q3  1998Q1  1997Q3  1997Q1  50.0  Source: SIS. Sustainable increase in employment In Turkey, sustainable growth depends on the increases in productivity and capital stock as well as on the enhancement of labor supply and labor quality. For this reason, determination of the structural obstacles standing in the way of employment and the establishment of policies aimed at their removal bear much significance.

However, the other side of causality has not been mentioned much. Economic instability triggered by inflation is one of the main factors that leads to political instability. In other words, political instability creates inflation and inflation invokes political instability. Hence, high inflation and political instability create a vicious circle. When we look at the effects of high inflation on the economic sphere, we see that deposit savers put most of their savings into unproductive areas such as foreign currency and real estate with the aim of protecting themselves from the impacts of an inflationary environment. However, keeping most of their savings as foreign currency has achieved nothing and created real revenue loss. This is due to the fact that for economic units, the long-term revenue of foreign currency remained below the revenues of Turkish lira assets, despite devaluations in the Turkish lira. When we look at this from the investment angle, since there is a kind of tax burden on investments, this creates an additional cost for investors and causes seasonal volatility in investment. This leads to diversifications in economic growth rates. As a result, growth rates drop in countries experiencing high inflation in the long-run, moreover the quality of growth deteriorates. The average growth in the last 20 years in Turkey has lagged behind most of the developing countries. In our country, continual high inflation, apart from having a negative impact on economic growth, has led to the erosion of the quality of products and services and has caused an unrelenting regression in our competitiveness.
This allowed for a significant carry-over: according to Commission's forecasts published last Friday, euro area economy should grow by 3.2 % in 2022 as a whole(ii), more than the forecast for the United States. As for 2023, while slowing down, growth could remain positive at 0.3 %, and it should rebound to 1.5 % in 2024. All economic forecasts are nevertheless surrounded with high uncertainty at present times, in light in particular of the latest of an unprecedented series of shocks. By the way, this is why we need to regulate strongly and quickly crypto assets internationally: the last episodes show us that we cannot allow for a second "crypto winter" to still add to uncertainty and financial instability. The Russian war in Ukraine is feeding a further surge in energy prices and other commodities, hence a negative shock on terms of trade. This geopolitical and economic environment weighs on the confidence of businesses and consumers. In particular, inflation has become the prime concern of our European citizens. The rise in consumer prices has amplified in recent months, reaching 10.7% in October – France displays the lowest rate in the euro area with 7.1 %, thanks in particular to its "tariff  1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  shield" which protects households from increases in energy prices.

François Villeroy de Galhau: Overcoming the energy crisis - a European perspective (and beyond) Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Paris EUROPLACE Tokyo International Financial Forum 2022, Tokyo, 15 November 2022. *** Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure for me to be with you again –physically with you – in Tokyo for this International Financial Forum organised by Paris Europlace. I am honoured to share the closure of this event with my colleague and friend Governor Kuroda. We face together the awful Russian war in Ukraine, and its consequences on energy and economy. I will start with a brief description of the macroeconomic outlook in the euro area, and with our monetary policy normalisation (l). I will then focus on sustainable finance in France, Europe and Japan: it has a key role to play in our ecological transformation, more needed than ever (II). I. Macroeconomic outlook in the euro area  A. Despite recent shocks, growth outlook has shown overall resilience so far Let me start with the macroeconomic situation in the euro area, which has so far shown resilience. In 2021 our economy had strongly recovered from the Covid crisis: growth had reached 5.2 %, and even 6.8 % in France. We Europeans have remarkably overcome the Covid crisis, which hit us early and strongly. We achieved this through enhanced European unity, for instance in purchasing vaccines, and in implementing common budgetary measures to support our recovery (SURE(i) and Next Generation EU programmes).
This guidance was grounded in an early exposition of why r* was low and not expected to recover soon.7 Secular drivers that had pushed down the equilibrium rate prior to the crisis – including slower potential growth, demographic forces, changes in income distribution and excess saving in emerging markets – were likely to persist. The MPC judged there is a further wedge pushing r* in the UK below global r* because of fiscal drag and heightened uncertainty.8 The MPC clearly signalled that the policy path was likely to be very different from during past recoveries. It observed that the appropriate path of interest rate increases to eliminate slack and keep inflation close to the target was expected to be gradual and, even once spare capacity had been absorbed, the appropriate level of Bank Rate was expected to be materially below the pre-crisis average of 5%. This may be obvious now, but it wasn’t then when it mattered most. Importantly, the interest rate expectations of UK households and businesses have remained well anchored both as the recovery has progressed and even as policy was tightened in November 2017 and August 2018 (Chart 5). See Carney, M (2013), “The spirit of the season” at The Economic Club of New York; and the box on page 42 of the August 2014 Inflation Report. 8 See the box on page 39 of the August 2018 Inflation Report.

Specific measures include upgrading the funds transfer systems, migrating all magnetic stripe for ATM card and credit card infrastructure to a chipenabled environment, and introducing payment platforms that leverages on the Internet to promote users' confidence and safeguard consumers' interests. Malaysia is the first country in the Asia Pacific  BIS Review 86/2005  3  region that has mandated the migration of ATM cards to chip based cards and has also been the first to complete the implementation of a national migration to EMV chip based credit cards. This is essentially to combat fraud in payment instruments. A number of other initiatives have also been put in place to create greater awareness among the public regarding counterfeit banknotes and to promote increased consumer understanding on credit card usage and protection. As we advance forward, changes in the financial landscape will continue to be dynamic and the level of complexity and sophistication in the financial markets will further intensify. While considerable efforts have been undertaken to empower consumers through financial education and enhance protection for consumers, much remains to be done in fostering the commitment of financial service providers to sound business practices and promoting fair and equitable treatment of consumers. Given the global dimension of financial services and the increasing interdependence of financial markets, efforts by individual countries to strengthen consumer protection need to be matched by efforts to enhance safeguards at the international level.
When the time comes for me to write an open letter to the Chancellor because inflation has deviated by more than one percentage point from target – and it is very surprising that such a letter has not been required in the eight years since the MPC was set up – I will welcome the opportunity to explain how  BIS Review 36/2005  7  we expect to bring inflation back to target and over what horizon. Such letters are an integral part of the policy framework, not an indication of its failure. Conclusions In this lecture I have advanced three propositions. First, expectations are of fundamental importance to monetary policy. Second, the strategy of policy is more important than any of the individual monthly decisions on interest rates. Third, in designing a strategy be aware of the likely role of heuristics in forming expectations, and so keep it simple. From those perspectives inflation targeting appears a natural way to conduct monetary policy. And experience of inflation targeting suggests that a managed monetary standard can lead to stability – of both inflation and the economy as a whole – without the straitjacket of a gold standard, currency board or rigid fixed exchange rate target. Inflation targeting anchors inflation expectations, yet allows a flexible response to economic shocks. Is inflation targeting the last word in monetary policy? Almost certainly not.

Chart 3 shows that the slope of the short-run Phillips curve has moved around during the post-war period, apparently in response to changes in the monetary policy regime. In the 1970s labour market pressure was not offset by tighter monetary policy, leading to a spiral of wage and price inflation. The short-run Phillips curve steepened, with larger inflationary consequences of any deviation from the natural rate of unemployment. As monetary policy became more focused on controlling inflation, the Phillips curve flattened in the latter part of the 1980s and 1990s. Such changes in the monetary policy regime can also be detected in the behaviour of inflation over time. Table 2 shows that the persistence of inflation – measured by the estimated explanatory power of past inflation in predicting current inflation – has fallen quite markedly since the inflation target was introduced in 1992. Was this  4  BIS Review 36/2005  because the failure of monetary policy to react quickly to an inflationary shock in the 1970s meant that inflation remained high for some time? And has the prompt response of monetary policy meant that movements in inflation more recently have proved short-lived? The answers to these questions matter for monetary policy. But the economy is continually evolving, and we can never definitively conclude that one answer is right and the others wrong. So learning about changes in the structure of the economy lies at the heart of the daily work of central banks.
Starting with fiscal discipline, public debt levels will be more closely monitored and countries will have better incentives to comply with their commitments, through the introduction of broader and transparent sanctioning arrangements, which will moreover be applied at an earlier stage and, as far as possible, automatically. Further, the reform of national fiscal frameworks is being promoted, so that budgetary policy rules and surveillance systems will be adopted that help curtail spending. Moreover, a new framework for the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances is being established. The aim of this mechanism is the early identification of the emergence of potentially “excessive imbalances”. When imbalances are considered to be too big, an excessive imbalance procedure will be initiated which will include recommendations for the adoption of corrective measures. The third key element of EU economic governance reform is the creation of a permanent crisis-management instrument, the so-called European Stability Mechanism, which will come into force in mid-2013. Geared to lend up to € billion, this mechanism will provide funds to countries with liquidity problems under strict conditionality. Finally, a mention for the Euro Plus Pact, approved in March by the euro area Heads of State and of Government. This pact involves a commitment at the highest political level to adopt the measures needed to attain competitiveness and employment-promoting objectives, to contribute to the sustainability of public finances and to reinforce financial stability.

Prasarn Trairatvorakul: Thailand – assessment of recent economic performance and challenges for the period ahead Keynote address by Dr Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Institute of International Finance Asia CEO Summit, Bangkok, 14 March 2012. *  *  *  Distinguished speakers, Ladies and gentlemen. Let me begin by thanking our hosts – the IIF and Bangkok Bank, for inviting me to speak before you at this occasion. It is a pleasure to participate in this unique forum that brings together so many experts from both the private and public sides of the international financial community. I would also like to congratulate the IIF for your proud 30th Anniversary. My designated topic for today is on Thailand’s recent economic performance and challenges for the period ahead. In this audience, I think it is safe to presume that most of you are familiar with recent economic developments so I will be brief in this respect and focus most of my remarks on challenges going forward. So let me start by offering a recap on the events of 2011 up to now. The main theme during most of last year was maintaining growth momentum while keeping stability in check. As the economy gained traction, the balance of risks began to shift away from growth and towards inflation. As a result, monetary policy was dedicated to normalizing interest rates. Then the table was turned.
BIS Review 66/2004  5  •  The first is the APEC Initiative on the Development of Securitisation and Credit Guarantee Markets, which is spearheaded by three APEC member economies, namely, Hong Kong, Thailand and Korea, and sponsored by the World Bank;  •  The second is the Asian Bond Market Initiative (ABMI) of the ASEAN+3 forum; and  •  The third is the Asian Bond Fund initiative of EMEAP, comprising eleven central banks in the region, which has successfully launched ABF1, denominated in US dollars and has been working hard on ABF2 to be denominated in domestic currencies. There is inevitably competition among these forums, some overlap on the issues being addressed and use of different strategies. In Asia there is no political or institutional framework comparable to the one in Europe for taking a more focussed approach and for co-ordinating efforts. But all the initiatives have the common aim of addressing the structural impediments to the development of bond markets, including for example harmonising standards and practices, and creating the necessary regional financial infrastructure to facilitate this much needed development. There is momentum built up and I am hopeful that we should see significant progress made in the years to come. But I think the long-term solution to the problems of Asian finance lies in co-operation in respect of currency arrangements.

On a larger scale, uncertainties pertaining to the post-crisis international monetary and reserve currency system – the one in which dominant currencies are likely to grow weaker and newly emerging currencies grow stronger – will also pose important challenges to monetary, exchange rate, and reserve management policies. Ladies and Gentlemen, To tackle some of these challenges, we are very fortunate to have with us today many distinguished speakers from both academia and central banks. In the morning sessions, we will hear from the academic point of view the implications of the changing financial and regulatory landscape. During lunch time, our keynote speaker will share his insights on the future of the international monetary system and what implications entail for policymakers. BIS Review 146/2010  1  Later in the afternoon, we hope to bridge academic thinking with practical policy considerations. Let me conclude by saying that it is impossible to have answers to all the big questions in a one-day conference like this. But I am sure we can contribute to the better understanding of many difficult issues and come up with useful policy recommendations. Most of all, I hope that this forum will be followed by continuing discussions and cooperation among all participants, which would be a true measure of success of the conference. I wish you all a fruitful meeting and memorable stay in Bangkok. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 146/2010