Is the central bank forward-looking or rather “behind the curve”? These are actually some of the recurrent criticisms I have heard about the Eurosystem’s monetary policy: too obscure, too narrow-focused, too late. One can build up (see Figure page 7 of the Annex) a forward-looking Taylor-type rule for the ECB’s minimum bid rate. As an overall assessment, the Taylor-type rule closely matches Eurosystem’s monetary policy decisions. Under the proviso that this rule provides a good benchmark, it is quite unclear why the Eurosystem has attracted so much criticism: in particular, the output stabilisation “objective”, as encapsulated in a standard Taylor rule, has not been overlooked by the overriding objective of price stability. In that regard, one should be aware that, in the euro area as elsewhere, price stability aims at providing the highest sustainable growth and employment in the longer run; finally, the decisions have been taken in a timely fashion, the Eurosystem conducting its monetary policy in a forward-looking and pre-emptive way. However, the same figure shows that policy decisions deviate from the Taylor rule benchmark. Actually, being rule-based doesn’t imply being rule-bound and monetary policy decisions are not taken on the basis of mechanical rules. I already mentioned the Eurosystem adopted a full-information approach, which besides the usual array of economic and financial indicators also gives a key role to monetary analysis not factored in usual Taylor rules. Identifying in real time the nature of monetary developments and their implication for future price developments represents however increasing challenges.

This is asking for strong vigilance so as to ensure that medium to longerterm expectations in the euro area remain solidly anchored at level consistent with price stability. 2. Macroeconomic stability and convergence  Price stability has not come at the expense of higher unemployment. Moreover, there are no visible signs of costs in terms of higher real macroeconomic volatility. Quite on the contrary, the volatility of real variables has declined relative to the averages observed during the 1980s and 1990s. Does one size fit all? It is often argued that a single monetary policy combined with inflation differentials leads to different real interest rates across countries, which in turn may destabilisize the currency union by creating divergence in output growth that exacerbate inflation differentials. This is by no way what we have observed: First, inflation dispersion among the euro area countries (measured as the unweighted standard deviation of annual HICP inflation rates) amounted to 0.7 percentage point in 2006 compared to around 6 percentage points in the 1990s. Since the inception of the euro, the average inflation dispersion across the euro area countries has been around 1 percentage  BIS Review 113/2007  5  point. This figure is very close to the dispersion observed across the 14 US metropolitan statistical areas. Concerning growth differentials, euro area averages naturally mask a variety of growth performances of individual countries within the single currency area, especially in a context where structural convergence has not been completed yet.