samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
An organisation’s purpose can be for the client; such as Amazon’s goal ‘To be earth’s most customer-centric company’; or the greater good, such as the World Bank’s mission to ‘End extreme poverty’, and the Bank of England’s to ‘Promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability’. The leader’s job is to ensure that the purpose of their organisation is always present and anchors its goals, values, and strategy. Like diversity, purpose is not a “nice to have”. Evidence shows that purposeful companies have higher employee engagement, greater customer satisfaction, tighter supplier linkages and better environmental stewardship. The pay-offs to purposeful business are superior share price performance, better operational performance, lower costs of capital, smaller regulatory fines and greater resilience in the face of shocks. 10  Always remember that, as leaders, you will be stewards of the purpose of your organisations. In this sense, leadership is the acceptance of responsibility rather than the assumption of power. True leadership is not an end in itself but rather as a means to accomplishing a worthwhile goal. These are lessons that some in financial services have had to re-learn in recent years. An industry of the scale and importance of finance needs social capital as well as economic capital in order to operate, innovate and grow. To maintain social capital, finance ultimately needs to be seen as a vocation, an activity with high ethical standards, which in turn conveys certain responsibilities.

A plan provides the necessary clarity of mind by focusing efforts and uniting people around a common goal. Even a strategy that is half-baked but gets you out of immediate danger is better than waiting for the perfect answer and being annihilated. Part of the plan to end the financial panic had to include reducing uncertainty over objectives. Some fretted that actions to save a crumbling system would encourage reckless behaviour in the future. Ben Bernanke was clear that invoking moral hazard in the middle of the U.S. financial crisis was misguided and dangerous. 20  Using the power of narrative, he challenged the arguments of the ‘moral hazard  fundamentalists’ in his oft cited and simple hypothetical example: do you let the man who smoked in bed die in the burning house to teach him a lesson? Or do you save him, stop the risk of surrounding houses catching fire and then reprimand him for reckless behaviour? 21  4. Humility The final essential leadership quality is humility. Recall what I said about this speech being a target-rich environment? Good leaders combine personal humility, self-knowledge and the ability to learn. That means admitting mistakes, seeking and accepting feedback and sharing the lessons you have learned. When leaders become over confident (or turn to writing books), they stop learning.
Other academic work assigns a greater role to expectations. Expectations are important to house prices as they influence both consumption choices (as housing is ‘service’ that people consume) and investment 5  See e.g. Assenmacher-Wesche and Gerlach (2009), Calza, Monacelli and Stracca (2013), Goodhart and Hofmann (2008), Iacoviello and Minetti (2008), Jorda, Schularick and Taylor (2015), Sa, Towbin and Wieladek (2011)). 6 See for example Favilukis et al. (2017) which assumes a large share of credit constrained households. A loosening in credit conditions increases a sufficient proportion of households’ demand for homeownership to generate a rise in house prices. Kaplan et al. (2019) and Greenwald & Gruber (2019) in contrast assume more ‘deep pocketed’ investors, so that a change in credit conditions has less effect on house prices. 7 Empirical evidence on this arbitrage mechanism is somewhat limited, but long-run evidence of rental yields and house prices may provide some support. In the UK, high rental yield tends to precede house price growth: see Broadbent, 2019 “Debt dynamics”. There is evidence of buy-to-let investors entering the market when letting out properties is relatively profitable, driving up house prices. As yields decline, house prices also decline. These dynamics would be consistent with the arbitrage mechanism 8 In equilibrium, rental yields (the ratio of rent to prices) is a function of risk-free rates, depreciation, a risk premium, and real house price growth.

Part 1: The digitalisation of financial services and their potential impact on Europe’s market infrastructure •  Technical innovations in financial services will be among the key focal points for the Eurosystem over the next few years;  •  In my article, I address four key topics where innovation in financial services will have to be tackled in the coming years:  A)  pan-European instant payments;  B)  person-to-person mobile payments;  C)  the emergence of new (non-bank) service providers;  D)  distributed ledger technology (DLT). A)  Pan-European instant payments  •  In 2015, the Euro Retail Payments Board invited the European Payments Council to develop an instant payment scheme for euro payments based on the SEPA credit transfer;  •  the implementation of this scheme is foreseen by November 2017;  •  By that time, end-user solutions for instant payments in euro should be made available at the pan-European level by the payment service providers;  •  This means that by November 2017 the European financial market infrastructure has to be ready to clear and settle instant payments on a pan-European scale;  •  As an operator of market infrastructure, the Eurosystem is exploring how to support the settlement of pan-European instant payments.
In the US, the authorities have provided capital in forms other than ordinary share capital, but in such a way that large banks are operating to a great extent for the government’s account and risk. Fifth, to cushion the fall in output and employment, governments are increasing their expenditure and lowering tax rates. The US government is preparing measures equivalent to almost 5 per cent of gross domestic product. Active measures in Europe are not as extensive. However, Europe’s taxes and the public safety net act as shock absorbers. A wide range of instruments is also being used in Norway. Banks have been provided with short and more long-term loans by Norges Bank. Banks have also been given access to  BIS Review 16/2009  5  liquid government paper in exchange for mortgage-backed securities. The key policy rate has been lowered substantially. As in other countries, money is not finding its way to businesses, but is accumulating in banks. The government has therefore provided increased loans and guarantees to Norwegian export industries, has raised lending limits for state banks and is allowing Folketrygdfondet (Government Pension Fund – Norway) to increase its purchases of bonds. The government is now also providing Norwegian banks with risk capital. In order to curb the fall in activity, the government has proposed an increase in government expenditure of over 10 per cent in 2009. What went wrong? The current downturn followed a period of very high global and domestic economic growth, supported by favourable trading conditions.

Low interest rates curb the decline in investment and make it easier for households to repay debt. The change in behaviour can nevertheless take time and we cannot expect consumers in the US and Europe to drive a new upturn. The public sector will eventually have to rein in expenditure and increase tax revenues to prevent debt from increasing. If growth in the global economy is to be sustained, public and private investment and consumption in China and other Asian countries will probably have to absorb a greater share of output in these countries. In many industrial countries, export prices have risen relative to import prices. Lower oil and commodity prices are easing the burden. But Norway’s terms of trade are deteriorating. Some of the gains of the past few years have now dissipated, and Norway’s disposable income might fall by close to 10 per cent in 2009. Norway will move down on the list of the world’s richest countries. (And perhaps this is not altogether a bad thing.) Norwegian firms are affected when households the world over buy fewer cars and furniture and fewer ships are built. Lower oil prices will probably also result in a fall in investment on the continental shelf in the years ahead. But let us not forget that petroleum prices are still higher than the industry dared hope just a few years ago. 10  BIS Review 16/2009  The competitiveness of the Norwegian business sector declined during the upturn.
This is one of the reasons why the Swedish krona has weakened against the euro. In the period since the beginning of the crisis to the present date, the krona has depreciated by approximately eight per cent against the euro. However, the fall has been even sharper over the last 12 months, reaching 18 to 19 per cent in March 2009. Rapid downturn in the Baltic states It became increasingly clear that the rate of growth in the world was beginning to slow down already in 2008. But it was not until the autumn, when the global financial crisis really took hold, that the situation seriously deteriorated. At present, the global economy is in recession and GDP is expected to fall by one per cent this year. World trade is expected to fall by over 12 per cent. 4 GDP is expected to fall in our region too – by 5 per cent in Sweden, which is slightly more than the figure for our Nordic neighbours. Development in Germany is somewhat weaker than in Sweden, while zero growth is expected in Poland. The situation is much worse in the Baltic states (see Figures 2 and 3), where GDP is currently expected to fall between 15 and 20 per cent this year. 5 This means that the crisis in the Baltic states is unparalleled compared with previous crises. The labour market has also weakened dramatically throughout the region. This is evident not least in the Baltic states where unemployment has now reached almost 17 per cent.

Ravi Menon: FinTech – harnessing its power, managing its risks Panel remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Singapore Forum, Singapore, 2 April 2016. *  *  *  FinTech is fundamentally transforming the financial industry. •  The smartphone is becoming our bank. •  Computer programmes are offering investment advice. •  People can now lend directly to one another online. Technology will replace many jobs in finance but will also create exciting new jobs. •  Calls for new and different skill sets – understanding technology and the ability to work with and harness the power of machines and algorithms  •  As someone in Silicon Valley put it, “the geek shall inherit the earth”. Unregulated FinTech companies are now providing many financial services. They will challenge traditional financial institutions (FIs), disrupt and even displace some of them but will not replace them. •  Banks and insurance companies have something that unregulated entities do not have – trust. Trust based on a track record of performance. •  FIs are not sitting still. –  They are actively harnessing technology to enhance product offerings and improve efficiency. –  They are setting up in-house FinTech units to replicate the start-up mentality. Many global banks have set up “innovation labs” in S’pore: Citibank, StanChart, UBS, HSBC, to name a few. And insurance companies too: Aviva, Aon, AXA, MetLife.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  All of the Desk’s eligible counterparty types participate in the ON RRPs, with money funds accounting for the largest share of take-up (Figure 6). Take-up at the operations generally increases when the spread between market rates and the ON RRP offered rate narrows. Take-up also rises substantially around quarter- and year-end financial reporting dates, when some money market participants’ access to other overnight secured investments is more limited. The increase in take-up on these dates is especially large for prime money market funds (Figure 7). In addition to patterns of usage of the ON RRPs themselves, we also analyze trading patterns and interest rate dynamics in secured and unsecured funding markets. In doing so, we use a wide range of data, including transactions data for unsecured funding markets obtained through a new Federal Reserve collection effort (FR 2420). While ON RRPs are a powerful tool for policy implementation, FOMC and market participants have noted the potential for very large regular usage to alter patterns of financial intermediation or, in a fixed-rate structure with no take-up limits, to exacerbate liquidity pressures during times of stress. To further examine how ON RRPs might best be structured to supplement IOER in the control of the federal funds rate while limiting the potential for unintended effects in financial markets, the FOMC has directed the Desk to test several changes to the design of its ON RRP operations.

Last week, the FOMC directed the Desk to reduce purchases of Treasury securities to $ billion per month and purchases of agency MBS to $ billion per month starting in October. The Committee also indicated that it will end the current purchase program at its next meeting if incoming information broadly supports its expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective. It also directed the Desk to maintain its agency MBS and Treasury security reinvestment policies – activities it separately announced it expects to continue after it begins to increase its target range for the federal funds rate. Should this course come to pass, the domestic securities portfolio will peak at a par value of about $ trillion – more than a five-fold increase since the start of the financial crisis in August 2007. The composition of the portfolio will also remain more complex. Formerly composed entirely of Treasury securities, the domestic portfolio is now only 60 percent Treasury securities, with the remainder held in agency MBS (and a small amount of agency debt securities). As I noted earlier, the weighted average maturity of the Treasury portfolio has lengthened substantially, while the MEP essentially eliminated the portfolio’s holdings of any Treasury securities maturing prior to February 2016. Meanwhile, it’s hard to predict the exact pace at which the SOMA portfolio’s agency MBS holdings will pay down over time given the prepayment uncertainty associated with those securities.
Growth among trading partners seems on the whole to be approximately as expected in the June Inflation Report, but the risk of more sluggish developments has increased, according to the IMF and the OECD. High oil prices may result in somewhat higher inflation abroad than previously projected. The objectives of bringing inflation back to the target of 2.5 per cent and anchoring inflation expectations imply a continued low interest rate. On the other hand, there are expectations that high output growth will persist. The objective of stabilising developments in output may, in isolation, imply a higher interest rate. Inflation is gradually picking up. High capacity utilisation may generate a continued sharp rise in property prices and household borrowing. This could be a source of instability in demand and output in the somewhat longer run. The Executive Board’s assessment in the June Inflation Report was that the interest rate may gradually – in small, not too frequent steps – be brought up towards a more normal level if economic developments are approximately as projected in the Report. Such an interest rate path was considered to provide a reasonable balance between the objective of stabilising inflation at target and the objective of stabilising growth in output and employment. It was the Executive Board’s assessment that the sight deposit rate should lie in the interval 1¾ - 2¾ per cent in the period up to the publication of the next Inflation Report on 2 November.

The scope is relatively moderate, but appears nonetheless to have reduced bottleneck tendencies in some industries where demand has increased sharply. Traditionally, many workers from our neighbouring countries have contributed when the labour market in this country has been tight. In 2001, close to 30, 000 persons resident in Sweden were employed in Norway for all or part of the year. Swedes who have registered as residents in Norway come in addition. An increased supply of labour from new EU member states to Norwegian enterprises may lead to a higher-than-normal increase in potential output for a period. Many of the foreign workers work for a shorter period in Norway without being employed in a Norwegian enterprise. Examples include foreign contractors and self-employed in the construction industry who carry out various building projects in Norway, as well as others who carry out other types of projects. Aker Kværner, for example, has contracted 300 consultants in India who are working from India on the Ormen Lange project in the western part of Norway. An increase in the use of these short-term contracts will appear as an increase in Norway’s service imports, which contributes to increasing the supply of goods and services without drawing on domestic resources. Protectionist measures may dampen the impact on the Norwegian economy of an increased supply of labour from the new EU member states. The transitional rules from 1 May last year stipulate that foreign workers shall have Norwegian wages and working conditions.
I would like to emphasise once again that this was possible due to the steadily low inflation rate we achieved. Owing to the accommodative monetary policy, companies were able to raise cheaper loans, which supported the revival of economic growth. Last year, corporate lending was up by almost 10%, which is twice as much as in 2019. In other words, companies really had the opportunity to use borrowed resources when they needed this. As we know from experience, small and medium-sized enterprises are especially vulnerable to crises. In 2014–2015, banks actually stopped providing lending to SMEs. This is why, immediately after the outbreak of the pandemic, we launched a special refinancing instrument amounting to 500 billion rubles at a low interest rate, which dropped as low as 2.25% at the end of the period. This instrument was aimed at incentivising banks to expand lending. We granted these loans only to those banks whose lending to SMEs was at least 90% from the beginning of the pandemic. Coupled with accommodative monetary policy and the Government’s programmes, this made it possible to increase lending to small businesses by nearly 23%, which is twice as much as in 2019. As regards mortgage lending, the Government launched its subsidised programme. It boosted the growth of mortgage lending, households were able to improve their housing conditions, and construction, which is a very important industry for the economy, received the required resources for its fast recovery.

Otherwise, it will threaten people’s well-being. Last year, we cut the key rate — at the outbreak of the pandemic, inflation was low in Russia, and the key rate helped us support lending and demand. As we all know, companies tend to welcome a policy of low interest rates, which makes borrowings cheaper and thus helps them develop their business. Conversely, it reduces households’ demand for deposits. If this is also coupled with inflation, households’ real incomes decline and savings depreciate. Figuratively speaking, we can say that monetary policy is like seasonal clothing: we wear jackets when it is cold and hang up our dresses in the wardrobe until the next warm season. The same is true for monetary policy: it significantly influences the situation in the economy and current 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  developments and helps promote stability, just like adequate clothing keeps us warm without being too hot. Accordingly, now is the right moment to raise the key rate in response to the changed environment and higher inflation. We had been keeping the key rate at a low level for quite a long period in order to make sure we do not clip the wings of the recovering economy. However, now we have no doubt that our decisions have not hindered growth. The economy has bounced back to its pre-crisis level, even surpassing it in many industries, and continues to expand.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for the trust you have placed in the SNB in the past. We look forward to your continued support in the future. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Challenges associated with climate change and the digitalisation of finance To conclude these remarks, I would like to say a few words about the role we can play as supervisors and central bankers to help banks on the path towards a sustainable economy and the digitalisation of finance. On the first point, the recent publication of the latest contribution to the IPCC’s1 6th Assessment Report reminds us of the urgent need for a transition to carbon neutrality. Supervisors have already started to assess the exposure of financial institutions to the resulting transition risks, in order to encourage them to identify, assess and manage these risks in the  1  Contribution of Working Group III of the IPCC published on 4 April 2022  4  same way as traditional risks - and the ACPR has played a pioneering role with the first stress test on climate risks. Climate risks will be gradually integrated into the prudential framework, starting with requirements under Pillars 2 and 3. Banks need to prepare for these future regulatory requirements, including those relating to climate risk stress tests and to transition plans. The latter are part of the CRD6 proposal, which is currently under negotiation. As regards Pillar 1, the integration of climate risks continues to be the subject of intense debate and I hope that the publication of an EBA consultation paper will enable us to move forward. However, the many methodological and data limitations will need to be addressed before new requirements are implemented.