samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In any event, for the more stable components of inflation (excluding energy), a gradual rise is forecast, in line with the expected increase in the degree of use of productive resources. The main risks and factors of vulnerability In this scenario, a series of risks should be highlighted. Globally, behind the recent increase in economic activity, an expansionary stance has underlain demand-side policies in most geographical areas, in particular in the case of the monetary policy still maintained by the main advanced economies. By their very nature, it is to be expected that these measures will be reversed in the future, which might affect agents’ expectations. While the various economic authorities are committed to a process of 4/9  monetary normalisation, in as gradual and orderly a way as possible, specific bouts of tightening on financial markets, as seen in the early months of this year, should not be ruled out. Against this backdrop, the US Administration’s recent measures also contain elements of uncertainty or risk. First, US fiscal policy has adopted a clearly expansionary stance, in a context of maintaining GDP growth rates clearly above potential over a prolonged period. Further, the decisions announced in respect of tariffs, mainly – but not only – vis-à-vis China, might, although they still affect only a limited group of sectors, trigger retaliation, with clearly negative effects on activity and global trade. This adverse circumstance would, within the EU, be combined with the still-uncertain impact of Brexit on the UK economy and its trading partners.

•  Fabrication demand for gold, by contrast, for jewellery as well as for industrial uses, has contracted in recent months. In the industrialised countries, this decline has been mainly brought about by the economic slowdown. The high gold price, however, has also played a role, especially in developing countries. In countries such as India, which accounts for a quarter of gold demand, the precious metal is held in the first place for saving purposes. Investors use a more or less fixed portion of their disposable income to purchase gold. In times of rising gold prices, investors buy correspondingly less gold. From these developments we can draw two conclusions: •  In the long term, the main elements influencing gold price expectations are changes in private investors' demand, mines' production costs as well as the central banks' fundamental attitude towards their gold reserves. •  In the short and medium term, any change in producers' hedging policies and in the central banks' gold holdings, as well as speculative demand can trigger noticeable shifts in the gold price. These price movements, both upward and downward, may be relatively significant because the gold market is not very liquid, as experience has shown. Under this point of view, the central bank gold sales agreement of September 1999 has had a stabilising effect, since it has made the operations of central banks transparent and eliminated an important source of uncertainty. Our sales will continue until we have completed our programme, i.e. until we have sold 1,300 tonnes of gold.
This is somewhat comforting, because it means that a huge part of the ethical challenge can be addressed without the need to reform people from within. The problem of “bad apples”, it seems, can be largely solved by focusing on cleaning up the “bad barrels”. However, the element of “people” remains relevant in determining behavioural outcomes – even if to a lesser extent. Again, this is a very wide and complex subject, but I wish to briefly mention two key points. First – we must remember that the financial sector, like human society, is made up of moral creatures. We cannot live, much less flourish, unless we recognise this and begin to employ the language of ethics in business. The language of business must align with what most people feel about how to live well: be honest; give trust; create lasting values; be reliable; and take pride in your work. The evidence reveals that employees are much more productive, and feel more fulfilled, when they believe that they share the same values as the organisation they work for. My point is simple – we must not shy away from the language of morality and objectivity in finance. Yes, there are many ambiguous areas. But some things are right, and some things are wrong; and as moral creatures, we should engage on these terms, even in business. Morality does not 4/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  cease to exist when we go to work.

These rules emphasise sensible governance structures – such as preventing control function officers from having their bonuses determined by the profits of business units they oversee. They also require risk-adjustments in quantifying bonuses – for instance, two traders who bring in the same profits, but expose the firm to different levels of risk, are rewarded differently. The other area that is important to fostering a healthy culture at the situation-level is “speaking up”. It is important that there are clear and robust whistleblowing arrangements for employees to raise legitimate concerns about illegal or unethical practices. In addition to the statutory protection offered for whistleblowing to authorities, it is also important that financial firms have internal arrangements for concerns to be raised within the organisation. However, whistleblowing only makes up a small portion of a speaking up culture. In fact, it is a last resort which will not need to be used in an organisation with a healthy culture of open discussion. For professionalism and integrity to prevail – it is crucial that financial firms encourage constructive challenge and healthy debate. This is particularly pertinent for the more ambiguous issues of ethics, professionalism and integrity. (c) Person We have discussed the elements of “system” and “situation”. The third element that is critical for a healthy culture is that of the “people”. I pointed out earlier that the evidence of psychology suggests that the “system” and “situation” are far more likely to predict actual ethical behaviour compared to personal convictions.
FDI), in line with the progress mode in the financial sector solidity and soundness; recent crises illustrated disruptive capital outflows generated by external debts highly concentrated on short-term maturities. 1.2  Improved reserve and debt management  To mitigate the volatility of capital flows and especially short term flows and reap the benefits of capital account liberalization, one should adopt a risk management strategy that involves a system for monitoring and assessing the risks and liquidity of the economy as a whole, including at a sectoral level. The international community may assist in developing best practices related to reserve and debt management: let me quote for example the more stringent publishing obligations on net foreign exchange reserves adopted within the context of the IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) or the IMF and the World Bank initiative to promote good practices in reserve and sovereign liability management. As recommended by the Financial Stability Forum Working Group on Capital Flows, an improved risk management by the banking sector is desirable, particularly as regards banks in emerging markets receiving flows and international banks extending cross-border credit, with the help of revised Guidelines from the Basel Committee on managing liquidity risk. Let me also note that implementing a strategy assessing the liquidity risk and foreign exposure of the economy as a whole calls for an adequate balance sheet information from both the public and the private financial and corporate sectors.

In the Law, the National Bank of Macedonia was defined as an institution of the single monetary system of former Yugoslavia, with a status of a legal entity. Established as such, it was independently executing the projections of the credit policy for the Republic of Macedonia. However, the setting of the monetary, credit and foreign exchange policies was still within the competence of the National Bank of former Yugoslavia, but a growing number of the decisions of its bodies were adopted by a consensus of the representatives of the republics and provinces. Five years later, in 1977, the National Bank of Macedonia earned new competences: bank licensing, conducting international payment and credit operations. It was also given more rights and responsibilities with respect to maintaining banks' liquidity. These functions and competences remained almost the same in the following 15 years. The third period, period of complete monetary independence, followed by the constitution of the independent state - Republic of Macedonia, is definitely the most important period in the central banking from all aspects. This is a period of sweeping transformations, which constitute the NBRM as an institution with all explicit attributes of an independent central bank, hence as one of the key attributes of the statehood of the Republic of Macedonia.
Over the past decade unit labour costs and prices have shown a marked tendency to deviate from the euro area average, thereby eroding competitiveness. It is a law of economics that the adjustment necessary to regain competitiveness inside a monetary union must take place in the real economy by ensuring that prices, wages and profit margins fall, or at least increase by less than the average, for a number of years. This requires the introduction of productivityenhancing measures and a wage-setting process in which wage increases reflect efficiency gains at the enterprise level rather than past inflation. In concluding, let me emphasize that what I am advocating is not austerity but enlightened self-interest. It is a commonsense appeal for a closer alignment of our priorities with the economy’s strategic objectives and for a more efficient allocation of resources. Against a backdrop of weak and uncertain global growth prospects, the policy focus must be on releasing resources to make the long-term investments needed for sustainable growth. There is indeed not much that economic policy can do to create well paid jobs in the short term. These are the combined outcome of high education standards, modern technology and an efficient infrastructure. This, in turn, depends on farsighted policies and years of wise investment by both the public and private sectors. That, I believe, is the path we should follow. BIS Review 156/2010  7

These developments, however, have raised various issues related to the requirements for bank openness, customer security, transparency and trust in the payment services market as well as consumer rights protection. Consequently, the regulators have to adopt appropriate legislative framework that supports digitalization, innovation and competition, but also take care of security and protection. In this context, it can be noticed that the European Union is a global leader in this domain. By revising the Payment Services Directive (PSD2), the European Union enables stronger competition and 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  innovation by allowing entrance of FinTech payment service providers that will eventually lead to greater choice and better prices for consumers, it will fosters cyber resilience of the payment service providers as well as enhance protection of payment services users. In this way, the European Union created a sound legal framework for digitalized payments landscape that enhances the integration of the single payment. At the same time, it sets an example for other countries around the world how to support digitalization trends by balancing between innovation and competition, on the one hand, and security and protection, on the other hand. The new regulatory framework implies that banks will no longer only be competing against banks, but everyone offering financial services, i.e. the customers will be able to create a set of providers of different financial services instead of relining on one bank for all services.
Our answers have been clear. First of all, we appreciate the discussion aimed at perfecting areas that may help to improve our fellow Chileans’ standards of living and further develop our economy. However, the Central Bank will not take part in the particulars of each of the reforms, because they lie beyond its scope of action. Secondly, we value the fact that if some reforms entail permanent increases in public spending, their funding comes from increased permanent income, so as to preserve the fiscal soundness our economy has displayed for decades. Third, it is logical – and recognized as such across the board – that reforms of this magnitude generate some uncertainties and worries, pushing back investment projects and affecting economic activity. But this effect is difficult to quantify. Lastly, in our pursuit of institutional stability, we think it is positive that the deepest agreements possible be reached around the major reforms being now debated in the country. From this perspective we appreciate the spirit of the agreement led by the Finance Minister and this Parliament for the approval of the tax reform. Also, I would like to explain the role played by the Central Bank in the context of the economic slowdown we are experiencing. The function of monetary policy is not to prevent the economy from adjusting, but rather to help the adjustment to be smooth and not jeopardize the convergence of inflation.

While local rates have not responded only to changes in external rates – reflecting also the actions of local monetary policy –, a rise in international interest rates could result in increased costs of corporate financing. At the same time, it could generate portfolio adjustments by the agents involved, helping in the interest rate hike and causing greater volatility in the markets. As of the second quarter, Chile’s corporate financial sector showed no material change from end-of-2013, although debt is high and profits are low by historical standards (figure 10). All in all, the debt-to-GDP ratio maintains a slightly positive trend. In the context of slower economic growth, we cannot rule out less favorable indicators coming in for more recent periods – not available at the closing of this IEF Report. Meanwhile, the exchange rate depreciation has not eroded significantly the profits of currency-mismatched firms. In the residential real-estate market, prices continue on the rise, while in the office- space sector vacancies have increased (figure 11). Market indicators point to strong growth in housing prices in the Metropolitan Region, as demand continues to be strong – despite the ongoing phase of the business cycle – and depleted inventories. A change in these factors could result in slower growth in prices, so one must not extrapolate past trends into investment and funding decisions for projects in the sector.
A better allocation of European private savings, however, requires more effective cross-border financing channels. We therefore need to combine a more efficient Banking Union and an at last completed Capital Markets Union (CMU) to make a genuine “Financing Union for Investment and Innovation”. Jens Weidmann, the President of the Bundesbank, and I had made a strong case for it in a joint op-ed published in April 2019. Reviving the single market, our essential asset There is an essential asset that Europe does not talk about enough: it is its single market. Yet, 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  this is its great economic success, together with the euro. But it is vital to remain vigilant as to the dangers of fragmentation with the Covid crisis. National governments acted appropriately during the critical phase, adopting emergency measures in particular to provide liquidity support to their businesses. But the single market means common rules for businesses: if this were not the case, the divergence between our economies could regrettably increase further. It is therefore necessary to quickly restore the Commission's control over state aid and fair competition Furthermore, we must revive the single market, above all because we can optimise its power by combining its various components much better: free movement of goods, naturally; but also the cross-border financing capacity with the financing Union; and last but not least, regulatory power. There are still too many implicit borders and too much fragmentation.

This massive and rapid action was welcomed but raised questions, particularly in Germany: is the ECB not going beyond its mandate, endangering price stability? And even more "fundamentally ", where do these thousands of billions created all of a sudden come from? I will start with the second question: the specific feature of a central bank is its ability to create money virtually and without limits. However, it must be borne in mind that the money created by central banks is never simply “given away” permanently: it is loaned for a limited period; and it is channelled into the economy and eventually comes back to the central bank. The central bank can buy time through its monetary creation, and this is important. But it cannot sustainably increase wealth; only our work and economic growth can. I will now return to the first question, on whether or not we are fulfilling our mandate. In its founding Treaties, and under the legitimacy afforded to it by economic actors and public opinion, the ECB’s measures are bound by two interlinked anchors: its price stability mandate and its independence. They are inherited from the Bundesbank and in my view vital. Independence : the ECB is subject to neither national governments, nor to the pressures of the financial markets nor of passing trends. The ECB’s monetary policy must continue to support economic activity, for the sake of its own mandate of price stability.
One such test – motivated by the risk scenarios identified in the process of monetary tapering in the U.S. – shows little exposure of the banking system to a sharp increase in the interest rates of long-term securities. Meanwhile, households’ aggregate borrowing and financial burden indicators show a marginal decline, although with some changes in the composition of the debt. The share of bank debt has increased compared with other credit providers, while total corporate debt is stable as a ratio to GDP and the financial indicators of companies reporting to the Superintendence of Securities and Insurance (SVS) are also fairly stable. Capital inflows to Chile continue to be dominated by FDI while aggregate solvency and liquidity figures are also stable. In this way, our general analysis of the domestic financial system yields that it is on a good standing to deal with the risk scenarios described, and we see no incubation of systemic risks at the local level. This explains, in part, why the recent volatility episode in foreign financial markets had lesser effects on the Chilean financial system than in other emerging economies, where risks did incubate over the past few years. However, to maintain this resilience the different players making up the financial system must take the necessary decisions and safeguards, especially considering the dynamism of the financial sector. One first firewall, perhaps the most important one, is the one related to corporate stockholders, who should establish and implement clear policies aimed at restricting their operating risks via corporate governance, boards and management.

Despite the fact that risk attitudes, as such, are positive, demand for safe investments and thus for the Swiss franc has remained particularly strong. Consequently, recent movements in the Swiss franc have been influenced not only by the divergence between the dollar and euro regions, but also by persistent safe haven flows. The discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate led to a very substantial but short-lived appreciation in the Swiss franc. The extent of this appreciation is shown in chart 3. The extreme movements in the exchange rate were accompanied by a sharp increase in volatility on the Swiss franc foreign exchange market. Since then, Swiss franc volatility has declined, although it remains high in a long-term comparison with the period prior to the financial crisis. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  At the same time, bid-ask spreads, i.e. differences between the best purchasing and selling offers, widened substantially following the end of the minimum exchange rate. These, too, have declined in the past few months, although the bid-ask spreads remain relatively large. In trade-weighted terms, the Swiss franc is no longer at the extreme levels that prevailed immediately after the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate. However, it is still some 12% above the level at the beginning of the year. Thus, the Swiss franc is still substantially overvalued.
Short-term fluctuations in the krone tend to have very limited effects on economic developments, while long-lasting changes may have an impact. Norges Bank has mainly based projections in the baseline scenario in its inflation reports on a constant exchange rate equal to the average for the previous three months, and in some cases the average for the previous month. Using these averages, very short-term variations in the krone exchange rate will have less effect on the exchange rate assumption. A more long-lasting change in the krone exchange rate will, on the other hand, be taken into account over time and will gradually have an effect on the inflation projection and on interest rate setting. Norges Bank’s Executive Board sets the interest rate with a view to achieving the inflation target of 2½ per cent. The inflation target also provides a framework for stabilising output and employment. When setting the interest rate, the Executive Board seeks to strike a balance. On the one hand is the consideration of bringing inflation up to target and stimulating growth in the Norwegian economy. On the other hand, we must consider the risk of new pressures in the Norwegian economy when looking further ahead. Since December 2002, we have found it appropriate to reduce the interest rate to a low level. At the last monetary policy meeting on 17 September, it was decided to reduce the interest rate to 2.5 per cent.

The sukuk will be given equal regulatory treatment as SGS, such as qualifying as an asset in the computation of capital and liquidity requirements, and as eligible collateral for tapping MAS' liquidity facility. The sukuk will be issued on a reverse-enquiry basis, based on the demand of financial institutions operating here. BIS Review 9/2009  1  MAS is committed to the facility, issuing to meet the needs of financial institutions that are carrying out or plan to carry out Shariah-compliant activities in Singapore, as this will strengthen their ability to meet their capital and liquidity requirements. This sukuk issuance facility underscores our strong commitment to the development of Islamic finance in Singapore. We invite eligible financial institutions to approach MAS to register their interest. I would like to place on record our appreciation to the Islamic Bank of Asia and Standard Chartered Bank, as well as Allen & Gledhill, which have been instrumental in creating this first sukuk to be issued by a Singapore statutory board. Thank you all for joining us this afternoon. 2  BIS Review 9/2009