A press release is published after each interest rate decision, containing a brief description of the background to the decision. A more detailed account of our discussion and the motivation for the decision can be obtained from the minutes of the monetary policy meetings, which are usually published approximately two weeks after the meetings. BIS Review 7/2004  1  Growth expectations appear to be correct Our monetary policy decisions are thus based on the forecast of inflation 1-2 years ahead. The assessment of inflation prospects begins with an analysis of developments in the real economy. This has not been an easy task in recent years and the Riksbank, in common with many other analysts, has been forced to reconsider its forecasts of economic growth on a number of occasions. Sweden, like most other countries, was affected by the economic slowdown in 2001. The slowdown was aggravated by the uncertainty following the terrorist attacks on 11 September. Growth in Sweden and in the OECD as a whole was then around 1 per cent. Economic policy was made more expansionary in many countries and at the beginning of 2002 there were signs that uncertainty had declined and that economic activity was about to improve. Growth improved slightly and assessments of future growth assumed that economic activity would continue to strengthen. However, these expectations were not met. During the second half of 2002 economic prospects took a downturn once again, growth forecasts began to be adjusted downwards and the time for the economic upturn was postponed further.

Operational systems and controls, including mechanism to protect consumers’ interest and prevent criminal activity, can vary considerably between entities and jurisdictions. With typically hundreds or more money services entities in most countries, such diversity presents a unique set of challenges for money services businesses and regulators seeking to put in place the necessary frameworks to manage and mitigate risks associated with the business. In the more recent period, money services businesses have been confronted with increased challenges from heightened global concerns with crimes committed cross-border and  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  transnational money laundering. The cash-based nature of MSB transactions, global reach of remittance networks, and customer verification processes, if not properly managed would render MSBs susceptible to money laundering threats. Heightened regulatory scrutiny over money laundering controls and heavy penalties meted out by regulators might prompt banks to review their relationships with MSB companies. Some banks have withdrawn banking facilities provided to MSB companies, creating significant difficulties for large numbers of MSB companies that are doing legitimate business. On the other hand, as the bar is raised for MSBs to strengthen AML procedures, there is a concern over the unintended consequences that this might exclude certain segments of society from access to the formal financial system. Worse, it pushes more transactions to the informal or illegal channels. I raise these observations to highlight two points which I thought are relevant to this Conference.