samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In economies across the world, new issuance of corporate debt and listing of new companies came to a halt, posing an enormous challenge for the banking channel to sustain economic activities: as we have seen, in many cases that challenge was insurmountable. At the same time, the financial crisis grew to such exceptional proportions that governments worldwide had to implement a series of rescue measures of a kind never seen before, using public money to bail out the banking system. In a globalised world, it would be complacent to say that Hong Kong will continue to be less affected than their counterparts in Europe and the US: it is likely that the falling prices of financial assets, the economic downturn and other unfavourable factors will inevitably affect banks' asset quality and drive up the ratio of nonperforming loans. Nevertheless, it is also true that Hong Kong has entered this crisis in a position of strength and should be able to weather it relatively well. Despite the complex and stressful financial environment, the fundamentals of the banking sector in Hong Kong has remained strong and sound. The local banking sector here is well capitalised, at 13.8%, with a strong liquidity position averaging 45% in the fourth quarter of last year. The asset quality of retail banks is also high by historical standards, with preliminary figures showing overall non-performing loan ratio edging marginally from below 1% before the global financial crisis to just above 1% at the end of 2008.

Although we are still in the infant stages of development, we have accumulated some experience, which I would like to share with you today. First, since it is now such a hot topic to talk about change, I trust that you will agree with me that Islamic finance, at least for jurisdictions like Hong Kong, means change – a change in perception, a change in skills, a change in structures and techniques, in contracts, standards, and so on. Change, in all its many forms, is happening within the global Islamic finance arena, even as we speak. In the past year or so, we have seen the inception of several standardisation initiatives for Islamic financial documentation, spearheaded by international institutions like the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB) and the International Islamic Financial Market (IIFM). This form of change is significant towards facilitating harmonious practices, providing greater clarity for the Islamic financial services industry and thus acting as a boost to the development of global Islamic financial markets. There have also been many exciting developments in the new markets for Islamic finance in Asia, where there is a growing tendency for sukuk issuance, such as the sovereign issues from Indonesia and Singapore to support the development of Islamic finance. At the same time, we have also seen enhanced co-operation and increased linkages, both internally within the region and externally with other Islamic financial centres in the Middle East.
In the recent financial crisis, the leverage ratio of certain financial institutions was so high that their entire capital would have been eroded as a result of a mere 2% loss in the value of their assets. It could then be clearly demonstrated that the institutions with relatively low leverage weathered the crisis much better than those with high leverage. 7 Second, simple instruments offset the shortcomings of complex rules, in particular. In this way they provide a kind of safety net in case the complex regulatory approach emits incorrect signals. For instance, the  5  A “capital conservation buffer” whose function is to achieve this effect is also planned within the Basel III framework. 6  With respect to the leverage ratio, it is argued that this measure creates incentives to substitute high-risk assets for low-risk assets, thereby increasing a bank’s overall risk exposure. 7  Comparing 2006 data for a broad sample of banks, a recent BIS study concludes that the mean leverage ratio of eventually severely stressed banks were lower than the mean leverage ratio of non-stressed banks. Cf. BIS (2010): Calibrating regulatory minimum capital requirements and capital buffers: a top-down approach. 4  BIS Review 146/2010  risk assessment models upon which the risk-weighted capital approach is based are most certainly prone to error. For these reasons, Switzerland decided to introduce a leverage ratio for the big banks as far back as 2008. 8 Another way of making regulation more robust is by ensuring the diversification or complementarity of measures.

In particular, it is important that the measures are first and foremost designed to correct false incentives and to guide them in the right direction so that, first, unprofitable financial institutions leave the market of their own accord and, second, potential losses are borne by these institutions themselves, and not by the state. Consequently, in my opinion, measures such as a ban on proprietary trading or the introduction of a narrow banking system, that intervene too strongly in banks’ business models, are not very suitable. Such measures neither target the objective nor are they in line with the basic principles of the market economy. With regard to the TBTF issue, this principle has prompted the committee of experts appointed by the Swiss Government to draw up proposals including the creation of incentives for banks to become less systemically important overall, thereby reducing potential costs for the economy. At the same time, the committee of experts’ proposal will allow for improved resolution in the event that insolvency appears imminent, and this will significantly alleviate the TBTF problem. Are the measures “structural”? A second criterion is that the measures should not just address the specific circumstances of the most recent crisis. In other words, fighting the last war will not win the next one. At the same time, the lessons of history show us that certain basic mechanisms repeat themselves in every crisis. Consequently, it is very important that we recognise these general patterns and include them in regulatory considerations in order to improve our crisis prevention.
In some sense this is quite natural: a sharp movement in market prices exceeding that justified by fundamentals should present a highly profitable investment opportunity for the timely investor. While it is reasonable to draw comfort from the resilience of fast markets and the lack of spill-overs so far, it is important we recognise the limits of our understanding. Having been heavily involved in the analysis of sterling flash episode I am confident that we are able to provide forensic ex-post explanations. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Markets Committee 14  study, which the Bank of England helped to author, demonstrates that ; as does the Joint Staff Report on the 2014 US Treasury flash rally. 15  But I doubt we can fully understand what conditions may trigger similar  future events or completely anticipate how they might unfold. 16  Specifically, in my view, we are not yet in a position to rule out that future flash episodes might interact with aspects of financial market infrastructure in a way that gives rise to longer-lasting disruption. Suppose, for example, that a future flash episode happened to coincide with benchmark fixings in foreign exchange markets, or a margin call related to equity or derivative markets. The resulting impact on the recorded values of a range of assets might risk mechanically prompting further sales and price falls.

Today, many of the ASEAN-5 countries have fairly deep and liquid local bond markets. Central banks, whose operation is contingent on a deep and liquid bond and foreign exchange markets, have been part of the development process for the government bond market. Over the years, our financial markets have become more efficient, more sophisticated and more balanced. ASEAN-5 have moved from a predominantly bank-based or credit market to a growing capital market, both equity and bond. We have also strived to better manage the impact from volatile capital flows as we seek to balance between foreign inflows and capital outflow. Here bond markets have been instrumental to help absorb the impact from the volatilities and sudden reversal of these flows. These developments have facilitated central banks in their conduct of monetary policy, manage market expectations, and guide the path of monetary policy. Today, the ABMI is taking this development further from a domestic orientation to a regional level. This is timely in view of the increasing need for Asians to find new sources for growth and new markets for their exports, and in recognition of the need for “Asian savings to finance Asian investment”. Initiatives such as the Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility (CGIF) is a case in point that aims to foster cross border fund mobilization using the tools of a regional credit guarantee vehicle.
I am passionately convinced of the need for a public service, and affected by its current crisis: its necessary modernisation, its re-legitimisation, recognition for civil servants, is not incompatible with its capacity to perform and innovate, on the contrary. The transformation of the Banque de France is a modest but real example. The idea is not to reduce public spending overall, but to stabilise it. Bringing spending growth down to 0.5% per year from 2023 onwards would lower the debt ratio to 100% of GDP in ten years, assuming the rate of tax and social security contributions remains constant - I insist on this condition; stabilising our spending in volume terms would enable us to reduce our debt even further, to 90% of GDP. The target to be set is obviously a matter for democratic debate. But the most important thing is that the targets set for this "overall spending limit" actually be respected, which unfortunately our country has never been able to do in the long term. The choice of priorities or savings to be made also legitimately belong to the political debate. I would just like to point out that the key issue of the quality of spending is the blind spot in our budgetary debate, whereas it can guide us here. Economic analysis shows that spending for the future – most investment, education, research – has a much better "multiplier" effect on growth over time than simple current spending.

to yours: sooner or later, this would cause a political and social crisis, or a crisis of confidence among international investors. Indeed, it is easy to criticise, but hard to act. However, a credible debt reduction strategy is possible by combining three ingredients. All of them are necessary, because none of them is sufficient on its own. The first is time, acting over the long term, while starting rapidly as soon as the Covid-19 crisis ends in 2023. Over the next ten years, we must bring France’s public debt down to at least below its pre-Covid-19 level, i.e. below 100% as clearly as possible. The second ingredient is growth, to be raised by the abovementioned reforms. The third ingredient, which is also essential, consists in improving the efficiency and control of our public spending, which accounts for the highest share of GDP not only in Europe but in all developed countries. Page 14 sur 15  Discussions on this issue often become very sensitive: in France, more than elsewhere, public sector reforms are easily associated with austerity, or even with a liberal ideology of which they would be the Trojan horse. However, Sweden, which is not reputed for being a liberal country, has managed to lower its public spending to less than 50%, while we have increased ours. This is the French paradox: we are always denouncing an austerity that is, however, a long way off.
Explanation (3): Uncertain business case – “The Code is a useful guide to market conventions, but that doesn’t mean we need to sign up. The Code is really about the sell-side putting its house in order – the buy-side has nothing to apologise for. At best, the Code just reiterates what we already do; at worst, it’s more regulation in disguise.” This is for me the most important observation to address, and vital for securing the buy-in of CEOs and Boards. In putting together that case, I think there are five points worth stressing:  7  https://www.nex.com/insights/20180904-fx-code-changing-behaviour. 8  https://www.globalfxc.org/press/p181129a.htm 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  7    First, the Code provides a simple and powerful ‘off the shelf’ way to educate and promulgate globally-recognised best practice amongst your FX trading and operations staff internally, complementing other tools and regulations;    Second, it sends a clear signal to your sell-side counterparties of the standards you expect them to uphold in their dealings with you, and your intention to hold them to account for those standards – strengthening market discipline and sending a clear collective message that the buy-side expects the highest standards of service for their customers;    Third, in demonstrating a commitment to best practice both by your own traders and from those you trade with externally, it gives your firm a competitive advantage in the market for investors and other customers.

Explanation (2): Lack of relevance – “I’ve read the Code but most of it seems to be for the sell-side: parts of it aren’t relevant to my business, others are disproportionate. In areas of sell-side behaviour I do care about – like last look and disclosures – the original Code didn’t go far enough” It would be quite wrong to think that the Code is irrelevant to buy-side firms. The principles on Ethics, Governance, Information Sharing, and many parts of those on Risk Management and Compliance and Confirmation and Settlement apply directly.
As the financial industry continues to evolve in response to regulatory, technological and business factors, I expect new issues will emerge that potentially threaten individual firms, and supervisors need to be prepared to address them. Conclusions Effective supervision and regulation help create the environment where financial institutions provide critical intermediation services in a sustainable manner over time. A key lesson of the financial crisis and the post-crisis period is that stronger, more resilient financial firms can dampen rather than amplify shocks to the system. The greater resilience we observe today relative to the pre-crisis period suggests the U.S. financial sector is better positioned to continue to provide the critical services to households and businesses that are necessary to support the U.S. economy across a wide range of potential macroeconomic and financial conditions. It is also essential to distinguish the intended consequences of supervision and regulation where informed choices are made based on careful data analysis from the unintended consequences where outcomes are not consistent with policy objectives. This requires both a conceptual framework to identify costs and benefits to society as a whole, and empirical analysis to measure them. In my view, it is entirely appropriate to continuously evaluate and rigorously assess the impact to ensure that the observed outcomes are consistent with stated objectives such as greater resilience, efficient financial intermediation over time, and financial stability.

Your Excellency, the Zambian Government recognises the importance of expanding financial services to our rural areas, as part of its overall strategy to reduce poverty. The importance of the agricultural sector to the economy, in general, and small-scale farmers in particular, has made provision of financial services to rural areas a priority on the Government’s agenda. The need to improve financial services in economically disadvantaged areas also comes in light of the reduction in the presence of a number of banks in these areas over the last ten years. These areas need banking services from both commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, although this has been the case, the Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) have risen to the occasion to fill-up the gap in the provision of financial services such as small loans and savings facilities in the periurban and rural areas. In addition, the National Savings and Credit Bank (NSCB), formerly known as Postal Bank, which has a rural network has been providing financial services to the remote parts of the country. Your Excellency, coming to economic developments, I wish to state that the Zambian economy has performed relatively well in recent years. Inflation and interest rates have been coming down while the exchange rate of the Kwacha against major currencies has relatively stabilised, following a steep appreciation in 2005. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, in 2005, the economy registered growth of 5.0% in real terms, marking the seventh consecutive year of positive real growth in output.
The negative interest rate and our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary remain essential. In so doing, we are keeping the attractiveness of Swiss franc investments low and reducing upward pressure on our currency. Page 1/4  Berne, 13 December 2018 Thomas Jordan  News conference  The new conditional inflation forecast for the coming quarters is lower than it was in September. This is mainly due to the drop in oil prices. The medium-term inflation forecast is also slightly lower owing to more moderate growth prospects. For the current year, we continue to anticipate inflation of 0.9%. For 2019, we have revised our forecast down from 0.8% to 0.5%. For 2020, we expect inflation of 1.0%, compared with the previous forecast of 1.2%. The conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the three-month Libor remains at –0.75% over the entire forecast horizon. Global economic outlook  I would now like to turn to economic developments abroad, as these have a considerable bearing on the inflation and economic outlook in Switzerland. The global economy is somewhat less robust than it was a few months ago. Although the pace of growth remains strong worldwide, it is no longer quite as pronounced as at the beginning of the year. One reason for this is that the economic recovery is already well advanced in many countries, and momentum is slowing as a result of the high utilisation of production factors. Another reason is that a number of uncertainties are hampering growth.

With short-term expectations just under 1% and longer-term expectations slightly above, inflation expectations are firmly anchored within the range consistent with price stability. Economic actors are confident that the SNB will also be able to keep inflation well under control over the long term. In view of the stable inflation expectations, it is not surprising that long-term rates have changed little since the beginning of the year. The yield on ten-year Confederation bonds has fluctuated between –0.1% and +0.2% since the start of 2018. Andréa Maechler will examine exchange rate and interest rate developments in more detail later. Monetary policy outlook  Let me summarise the key points with regard to monetary policy. We anticipate that our economy has expanded by around 2.5% this year. In line with a gradual slowdown in the global economy and high capacity utilisation in Switzerland, domestic growth is likely to stabilise at around 1.5% next year. The inflation forecast for this year is unchanged; for 2019 and 2020 it is somewhat below our forecast last quarter. The Swiss franc is still highly valued. Given the slightly muted inflation outlook and the continued fragility in the exchange rate situation, our expansionary monetary policy remains appropriate. With the negative interest rate and our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, we support economic activity and ensure price stability. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention. It is now my pleasure to give the floor to Fritz Zurbrügg. Page 4/4
Undoubtedly, Europe has been strengthened during this crisis. But Europe now has the opportunity to show that it can be more than the sum of the solutions adopted in this crisis. Once again, Monnet’s words offer inspiration: “Europe itself is only a step towards the forms of organisation of the world of tomorrow”. [2] With these words in mind, we must seize this invaluable opportunity to strengthen our Union. We must shape the recovery from this crisis in such a way that our economies are fit for the world of tomorrow. The unique strength of the European project The pandemic and the measures to contain the spread of the virus have caused a contraction in euro area economic activity that is unprecedented in peacetime. [3] While incoming data suggest that we will see a strong rebound during the third quarter[4] , the strength of the recovery remains very uncertain, as well as uneven and incomplete. It continues to be highly dependent on the future evolution of the pandemic and the success of containment policies. One major reason why we can expect a rebound in activity in the second half of the year is because, when faced with the largest economic shock since the Second World War, Europe and its leaders showed the unique strength of the European project: by acting together, we can achieve more. The ECB has played its part in this collective effort in the face of an unprecedented crisis. The nature of the pandemic shock called for an extraordinary monetary policy response.

SPEECH  Jointly shaping Europe’s tomorrow Introductory remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly, 21 September 2020 Frankfurt am Main, 21 September 2020 Dear President Schäuble, Dear President Ferrand, Honourable Members of the Franco-German Assembly, I would like to thank you very warmly for inviting me to join you today. As President of the European Central Bank and a French citizen living and working in Germany, it is an honour to speak at this historic forum. This parliamentary assembly is an embodiment of the special relationship between our two countries and their commitment to European integration. I find it essential that the ECB constantly engages in two-way communication, especially with citizens’ representatives. We need to make sure that the ECB’s voice is heard by the people and that the people’s voice is heard by the ECB. This is why events like today’s are so important for me. Our regular interlocutor is the European Parliament, to whom we are accountable under the Treaty for our monetary policy tasks. Transnational settings like this one give us a further chance to look past nation-specific concerns as we discuss Europe’s future. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is a crisis of unprecedented magnitude. Many of you will recognise the famous words of Jean Monnet, one of the founding fathers of the European project, who said: “Europe will be forged in crises and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises”[1] . This pandemic has proven him right once more.