samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
And in this, the measures I’ll outline this evening constitute one aspect of a broader post-crisis endeavour to build, and maintain, a financial system that supports, and does not disrupt, the real economy. It goes by the name of macroprudential policy. Banking system resilience The first step to nurturing a resilient environment is to reduce the prospect of a sudden crunching of credit supply from an injured banking system. In the financial crisis, as banks were holed below the waterline and new lending seized up, the flow of new lending to commercial property collapsed to a third of its earlier level. Since the crisis, the Bank of England has been building a safer banking system. Measured on a consistent basis, major banks hold 10 times more capital than they did before the financial crisis1. And through stress testing, we’re making sure they’re able to withstand severe stresses. By withstand, I don’t just mean survive. I mean continue to lend, including to you. Last year, we tested whether the banking system could withstand a snap back of long-term interest rates, a sharp fall in residential and commercial real estate prices, and a deep recession – all without cutting lending. This year we’re testing whether they can withstand a synchronised, sharp slowdown in China, emerging markets and Europe, and sharp falls in asset and commodity prices – all while increasing lending to the UK real economy by 10%. We showed last year that, where the tests say a bank needs more capital, we’re prepared to take action.

The Bank of Albania acknowledges and appreciates the importance of having a well-informed and well-educated public in the transmission of monetary policy to the economy, by taking timely, right and rational decisions. In this context, our activities in the area of public’s financial education intensified further in 2009 through the expansion of age groups and greater geographical coverage. In figures, for the period 2008–2009:   were distributed a total of 21 000 educational leaflets;    were held training seminars for around 170 teachers teaching Economics in Tirana, Vlora, Korça, Shkodra, Gjirokastra and Elbasan;    were held 20 meetings with different stakeholders in Tirana, Vlora, Korça, Gjirokastra and Shkodra;    the competition “The Real Value of Money” was organized in Tirana, Vlora, Shkodra, Korça and Gjirokastra, with a total of 100 high schools taking part;    were held seminars for 60 social workers in Tirana;  8  BIS Review 78/2010    were held full cycles of training seminars and lectures for the journalists;    the Governor held 7 lectures for students in Albania and abroad;    Bank of Albania Day was organized in four universities. Lastly, the redesign of the Bank of Albania website in the beginning of 2009 provides a more efficient portal for the provision of information, making it efficient, re-arranged and user-friendly.
The GMM estimation thus boils down to searching for those 𝜷𝑗 that simultaneously minimise the sample moment conditions in (A7). ̂ 𝑗 from the above procedure, we can compute the output elasticity w.r.t. Once we have finally obtained 𝜷 COGS 𝜃𝑖𝑡𝑉 (which is just equal to 𝛽𝑗𝑣 in the Cobb-Douglas case). In addition, we can use the estimated measurement error in net sales, 𝜖̂𝑖𝑡 , to adjust the denominator in the COGS share of net sales, 𝛼𝑖𝑡𝑉 . We can then compute our estimates of firm-level mark-ups 𝜇̂ 𝑖𝑡 = (𝛼̃𝑖𝑡𝑉 )−1 𝜃̂𝑖𝑡𝑉 where 𝛼̃𝑖𝑡𝑉 is the measurement-error adjusted (COGS/net sales) ratio, and 𝜃̂𝑖𝑡𝑉 is the estimated output elasticity with respect to COGS. 42  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  42

I will come back to this later on, but for now let me emphasise that these conditions, related to the medium-term inflation outlook and linked to underlying inflation, seek to avoid a premature tightening of our monetary policy in the face of increases in inflation above target when these are considered to be temporary or caused by some volatile or exogenous element, such as energy prices. Finally, with respect to the APP, the Governing Council expects net purchases under this programme to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates. Therefore, there is “chained forward guidance” whereby the horizon for net asset purchases remains linked to the moment in which the next interest rate hike takes place. 5  For more details, see the full transcript of the Interview with the Governor published in Bloomberg of 27 July 2021. 7  3 An analysis of the current high-inflation episode through the lens of the new ECB monetary policy strategy  The last part of my talk today refers to how the ECB is handling the high-inflation episode that has been taking place worldwide, and in the euro area, over the last few quarters. And, to be clear from the very beginning, let me emphasise that, in my view, the ECB’s response to this shock can be perfectly rationalised in the context of the new monetary policy strategy that I have just sketched.
This awareness also reflects the difficult economic and financial context in which we have been moving. Evidently, financial end-consumers, especially individuals, are the weakest party in the customer-bank relationship.4 Hence the importance of banks behaving irreproachably when it comes to advice to customers to engage their services. However, we should acknowledge that the starting point is a significant shortfall in financial knowledge among citizens, a fact that may have been conducive to erroneous decision-making. Evidently, to be able to take an economic decision properly, a customer must be in full possession of all information and capable of understanding the implications that may arise in the future from what is to be signed. For instance, the consequences of taking on a variable interest rate throughout the life of a 30-year loan need to be understood, and variable income must be assumed to be so-named because of its variability. Admittedly, the younger generations are facing growing challenges arising from labour market aspects. These include the lack of job security, the need for flexibility and mobility, and property market developments. They are also especially affected by the structural changes in society, such as increased life expectancy or the reduction in the birth rate. This all involves the need to plan carefully for the future. We should not forget that education and financial knowledge are essential for improving financial inclusion. Clearly, digital transformation may help in this respect, especially in remote or thinly populated areas.

In the first, Wilbert van der Klaauw will provide an overview of fourth quarter and full year 2012 developments in household debt and credit; much of what Wilbert will describe is covered in our Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The quarterly report has documented the enormous rise in consumer delinquencies and defaults as the housing bust and the Great Recession unfolded, and, over the last several years has provided an in-depth look at a very large reduction in household debt – the largest we have ever witnessed. Since the third quarter of 2008, its peak, household debt has fallen by $ trillion – about 10 percent – mostly because of declining mortgage balances. This morning we are releasing our latest quarterly report – for the fourth quarter of 2012. The report shows some clear signs of healing in consumer debt markets. First, and perhaps most interesting, the data indicate that the recent improvement in the housing market was accompanied by a slight increase in the level of household debt. While it is too soon to conclude that a trend has been established in which households are beginning to increase their debts again, there are signs that the four-year long contraction is slowing. Consumer delinquency rates continue to slowly recover as well, with overall delinquency rates now back to pre-recession levels – around 8½ percent – but still well above the 3–5 percent rates that prevailed in the first half of the 2000s.
There is tremendous potential for Malaysian banks to reap greater benefits from increased regional integration through diversification of income streams and the fast-growing prosperity of the region. Such the expansion however, needs to commensurate with the institutional capacity. On reciprocal grounds, consideration will be granted towards enhancing the presence of ASEAN-origin financial institutions in Malaysia. Indeed, liberalisation including greater market access may be granted to countries where there are also reciprocal potential for Malaysian financial institutions to promote greater economic and financial integration in the region. The operating landscape moving forward is going to be increasingly challenging. Competitive pressures and global developments will continue to shape the transformation process of the financial sector. While the growth prospects of the financial sector remain positive, with the financial sector having emerged stronger and more effective, it also has the prospects of staying ahead of the curve, break new grounds in the development and quality of banking services and delivery channels. The ability to compete will drive performance and innovation within the financial sector, raising the potential to contribute to the economy to make the leap towards realizing Vision 2020. There is a high degree of confidence that the Malaysian financial sector will rise to the challenge. On that note, I wish you a productive and successful seminar. Thank you. BIS Review 71/2008  7

In fact, Malaysia’s capital account remains free with free mobility of inflows and outflows of capital for investments. The market remains open to all market participants and we shall ensure the necessary liquidity to the market. In essence, the measures that were instituted over the past week are consistent with our long standing policy of non-internationalisation of the ringgit and one that we expect banks to fully adhere to without exception. We do not recognize or condone the non-deliverable ringgit offshore market. Those who engage in NDF or NDF-related transactions are doing so at their own peril. I understand that to some, these are challenging measures but as I mentioned earlier, they are not new. We need to remove the negative influence of the NDF activities that impacts the smooth functioning and stability of the onshore financial market. We need to protect the interest of genuine investors and businesses, irrespective of whether they are foreign or domestic. Only through a concerted effort by all the stakeholders of the ringgit market, can this objective be achieved. We need to remember, that integrity and proper functioning of our financial market is in 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  the interest of every market participant, and all of us have a role to play towards achieving this objective. Way forward To overcome these challenges and to take on new direction and impetus, we had formed the Financial Market Committee (FMC) earlier this year.
Since January this year, MAS has restricted digital asset players from promoting cryptocurrency services at public spaces. This has led to the dismantling of Bitcoin ATMs and the removal of advertisements in MRT stations. But despite these warnings and measures, surveys show that consumers are increasingly trading in cryptocurrencies. This appears to be a global phenomenon, not just in Singapore. Many consumers are still enticed by the prospect of sharp price increases in cryptocurrencies. They seem to be irrationally oblivious about the risks of cryptocurrency trading. Consumer-related risks have gained the attention of regulators around the world. MAS is therefore considering further measures to reduce consumer harm. Adding frictions on retail access to cryptocurrencies is an area we are contemplating. These may include customer suitability tests and restricting the use of leverage and credit facilities for cryptocurrency trading. But banning retail access to cryptocurrencies is not likely to work. The cryptocurrency world is borderless. With just a mobile phone, Singaporeans have access to any number of crypto exchanges in the world and can buy or sell any number of cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrency market is also fraught with risks of market manipulation. These risks include cornering and wash trades – actions that mislead and deceive market participants about prices or trading volumes. They compound the inherent volatility and speculative nature of cryptocurrencies and can severely harm consumers. There is greater impetus now among global regulators to enhance regulations in this space. MAS will also do so.

Much of the credit for this belongs to the European Central Bank (ECB), whose steadfast commitment to price stability has created an environment conducive to investment, reflected in the fact that interest rates are low across the yield curve. The ECB’s credibility in fighting inflation is now so well established, moreover, that long-term inflation expectations are well anchored at around 2%. Price stability clearly yields important welfare benefits. So there are both advantages and opportunities for policy makers and economic agents in the euro area. But in setting out on this new phase of Malta’s economic development, we must be aware that, while the ECB can, and indeed has, delivered low and stable inflation, it cannot use the interest rate to permanently increase growth. From Malta’s perspective, therefore, the adoption of the euro must be viewed as but one in a continuum of challenges to be faced. The purpose of this conference is precisely to focus attention on the policy choices that need to be made in the years ahead. Put simply, the task that Malta faces is to bridge the remaining income gap with the more advanced members of the euro area. The success of this endeavour will depend importantly on how effectively the public and private sectors work together, both in assimilating the lessons learned during these first years of EU membership and in implementing appropriate policies.
This can be seen from our high level of international reserves, the manageable level of external indebtedness and the continued surplus in the current account balance. Together with the greater flexibility of our exchange rate, this has strengthened the capacity of our economy to cope with external shocks and ensure that financing to the private sector is not interrupted. Going forward, continuity in Bank Negara Malaysia’s financial sector policies will be preserved. We will continue to strengthen our prudential regulatory framework in line with global standards, while introducing new developmental initiatives and maintaining a strong focus on the fair treatment of financial consumers. Following transformational measures taken in the past few decades to significantly strengthen the financial system, the banking industry in Malaysia is managing this transition from a position of strength. The capitalisation of the banking system is at its highest level of 16.5%. The combined excess capital of banks above the regulatory minimum level stands at over RM120 billion. The banking system Liquidity Coverage Ratio is also comfortably above 120% against the current regulatory minimum of 70%. This strong position has been an important element to facilitate orderly adjustments in transitioning towards global standards without disruptions to financial intermediation, thus ensuring the smooth flow of financing to the economy. To enhance Malaysia’s growth potential, several initiatives had been identified that will help boost productivity, improve the income-earning potential of Malaysians and expand opportunities in new markets.

Figure 3 Bank deposit inflows (*) (billions of dollars) 250  250  200  200  150  150  100  100  50  50  0  0  -50  -50  -100  -100  -150  -150  -200  -200  06  07  08  09  (*) Change in the external liability position of emerging economies' reporting banks. Includes Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Panama, Taipei (Chinese province), Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Korean Rep., Singapore, South Africa, Turkey. Source: BIS. 8  BIS Review 72/2010  Figure 4 Price-to-earnings ratio in emerging economies (percentage) 40  40  30  30  20  20  10  10  0  0  07  Colombia Malaysia  08  09  Chile Korean Rep.  10  Mexico Singapore  Brazil  Source: Bloomberg. Figure 5 Real exchange rates in emerging economies (index, 2007-2010 average =100) 140  140  120  120  100  100  80  80  60  60  07  Chile Mexico  08 Brazil Peru  09 China Poland  10 Colombia Singapore  Malaysia Korean Rep. Source: Bloomberg.
But in conclusion, let me touch a sensitive coordination issue between various monetary policies. Given the financial importance of the dollar, and the need for the Fed to tighten decisively in order to reach its own price stability objective, other Central banks could be exposed to a dilemma. This is not exactly the one put forward by Helene Rey in her famous 2013 paper vi, but a delicate trade- off as a consequence of free capital movements: - Some Central banks already fighting inflationary pressures could be at risk of overtightening to avoid an excessive slippage of their currency. This would be mainly but not exclusively the case for emerging markets, and justifies the fear expressed by 11  Page 12 sur 14  M.Obstfeldvii and others of an excessive global monetary tightening. The IMF judges nevertheless that we are not there yet, and I agree. -Others would see a significant fall of their currency (versus the dollar) if they seek to maintain accommodative domestic monetary conditions. This could explain the recent intervention by Japanese authorities in favour of the yen. As said earlier, I think that the ECB should and can run its own monetary course. Not only today, but as a structural consequence of the significant weight of the euro area in the world economy: I stressed it four years ago in our IMF Bali meetingsviii. Obviously the exchange rate matters for our inflation outlook: we don’t target it, but we look at it closely.

Second, digital finance needs to be embedded in the way small businesses operate daily, across their supply chains. • A merchant is more likely to pay her employees digitally, if she receives digital payments from her customers, and transacts digitally with her suppliers. • We will not progress if we have cash on one side of the supply chain, and digital payments on the other. Going a step further, if we can unlock digital SME trade across borders, we will help SMEs access a broader range of trading opportunities and reach economies of scale faster. • This is what the Business Sans Borders initiative by MAS and the InfoComm Development Authority is seeking to do. • BsB is an open connector of platforms (a “meta-hub”) which helps address three challenges faced by SMEs – opaque pricing, complex supply chains, and lack of access to digital solutions. 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  •  This is a cross-border platform, connecting infrastructure across countries. Fundamentally, finance needs to support the way people live their lives and businesses go about their business. • Embedding innovation and digital finance in people’s lives is the only way to achieve sustained and meaningful financial inclusion. • As countries, we must learn from one other, partner in innovative projects, and manage risks collaboratively. •  And we should do so with the consumer right at the centre of our thinking. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
William C Dudley: The US economic outlook Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Washington and Lee University H Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics, Lexington, Virginia, 1 April 2010. *  *  *  Thank you for that kind introduction and the opportunity to speak here today. The past few years have been an extraordinary time for policymakers. We have been very aggressive in providing support to the economy, and it now appears that a sustainable recovery is underway. However, given the headwinds created by the collapse of the U.S. real estate market and its consequent damage to the financial system and household balance sheets, it seems unlikely that the recovery will be as strong as we would desire. As a result, the substantial amount of slack in productive capacity that exists today will likely only be absorbed gradually. Consequently, trend inflation, at least over the near term, should remain very low. This is why the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded at its March meeting that “... economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period”. What I would like to do today is to explain in some detail the logic underlying this expectation that economic conditions will warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

But recent data on the housing sector indicates that the recovery has stalled (Chart 20). As with consumption, we are unlikely to see the typical surge of housing starts and residential investment that was a key feature of most past recoveries. There is already an unusually large volume of vacant homes for rent and for sale (Chart 21). More are likely to come onto the market in the months ahead due to the large volume of mortgage loans currently in the foreclosure process. For the government sector, large federal budget deficits are a constraint and fiscal policy is slowly shifting from an expansive policy back toward restraint. At the state and local level, the constraints are even more binding, as budgetary gaps will need to be addressed by spending cuts and tax increases (Chart 22). Exports rebounded sharply over the second half of 2009, particularly to the emerging world (Chart 23). However, domestic demand in Europe and Japan – important export markets for the United States – remains very weak. This suggests that the U.S. trade balance is likely to change little over the next year or two, and, thus, will be relatively neutral in terms of its impact on growth. Only business fixed investment is in a position to be a true locomotive of growth. Profits have stayed high relative to investment, and corporate balance sheets are awash with cash (Charts 24 and 25). However, even here, the growth impulse is likely to be weak.