samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
How do we solve the Triffin dilemma and what role will Europe play in the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN)? A more international  Page 6 sur 7 euro will provide increased options to store global liquidity, but the goal will obviously not be to turn the euro into a dominant currency. On the contrary, we would aim for reliance on multiple currencies to offer stability to the International Financial System through diversification of risks. Regarding the global safety net, the euro area generated a quantum jump for the regional layer of the GFSN in creating the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). In addition, the euro area countries were instrumental for the strengthening of the IMF resources and the SDR allocation and rechannelling. The weight of the euro in the SDR basket should increase in the future in proportion of the increase of its international use. Finally, the Eurosystem is already providing international liquidity through existing swap lines and repo facilities with other central banks, and stands ready to do more if and when warranted. 2. Invoicing international trade With the EU ranking as the world largest trading block, the euro has ample margin to improve as an international trade invoicing currencyvi. The choice of invoice currency is a complex and largely private phenomenonvii, partly driven by the structure of global value chains, which are being reshuffled.

The pace of the further steps will take into account actual activity and inflation data with some optionality and gradualism, but we should at least move towards the neutral rate ii. And let me stress this: we will carefully monitor developments in the effective exchange rate, as a significant driver of imported inflation. A euro that is too weak would go against our price stability objective. More structurally, a key question is whether we are heading towards a fragmented International Financial System, at the expense of smooth trade and financial transactions? Despite the challenges, (I) we shouldn’t abandon, as a “creative frontier” on the horizon, the idea of cooperative multilateral International Financial System and (II) we should definitely develop the international role of the euro as a realistic step forward. **  Page 2 sur 7 I. We shouldn’t abandon, as a “creative frontier”, the idea of a cooperative multilateral International Financial System 1. The reasons why the topic of a renewed IFS has progressively faded to the background Since the 1970s, not much has happened to the international financial system. While the Bretton Woods system with fixed exchange rates and a gold anchor disappeared when the convertibility of the USD into gold came to end, the new international monetary system remained based on the USD. This dollar-based system gradually incorporated greater exchange rate flexibility. It allowed for a boom in trade and capital flows.
These possibilities are why the Bank has already taken a number of steps to encourage FinTech’s development. 4  For a summary of the new regulatory arrangements see “Changes to the Bank of England”, Murphy, E. and Senior, S, Quarterly Bulletin Article (Q1 2013). 3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  3  The PRA and the FCA have changed their authorisation processes to support new business models. The New Bank Start-Up Unit, created in 2016, works closely with firms seeking to become banks. Already, four new ‘mobile’ banks have been authorised. 5  The Bank also established a FinTech Accelerator last year. Since then, we have worked with a number of firms on proofs of concept ranging from strengthening our cyber security to using AI for regulatory data, and improving our understanding of distributed ledgers. Today we are opening our 4th round of applications to the Accelerator. We are looking to work on new proofs of concept on maintaining privacy in a distributed ledger and applying a range of big data tools to support the Bank’s analysis. 6  More broadly, the Bank is working to ensure that this time the right hard and soft infrastructure are in place to allow innovation to thrive while keeping the system safe. Let me expand briefly with three examples. The Right Soft Infrastructure First, with respect to soft infrastructure, the Bank is assessing how FinTech could change risks and opportunities along the financial services value chain.

2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  The accompanying burst of financial innovation spread the application of these technologies and supported the process of globalisation that bolstered trade, productivity and incomes. Once again, however, the hard and soft infrastructure of the financial system failed to keep pace. Lighttouch regulation, out-moded codes of market conduct, inadequate settlement and clearing infrastructure all contributed to the global financial crisis. We can draw on these experiences to help ensure that FinTech boosts growth and promotes financial stability. Not least because, following a raft of post-crisis reforms, the Bank’s regulatory frameworks are now fit for purpose. The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) is mandated to assess new and emerging risks to financial stability, including those that may exist beyond the existing regulatory perimeter. And it now has the powers to treat similar risks consistently, wherever they originate. 4  With this new approach, the Bank can help build the right infrastructure for FinTech to realise its promise. The Promise of FinTech To its advocates, FinTech will democratise financial services. Consumers will get more choice and keener pricing. SMEs will get access to new credit. Banks will become more productive, with lower transaction costs, greater capital efficiency and stronger operational resilience. Financial services will be more inclusive; with people better connected, more informed and increasingly empowered. And tantalisingly, FinTech could help make the system itself more resilient with greater diversity, redundancy and depth.
And this is why we are seeing increased vigilance by regulators and the financial institutions themselves, in terms of the rigour in the use of stresstests, which is essential in the environment of heightened volatility that superseded historical norm. The implementation of Pillar II is, however, a challenge, not only in terms of the technical and quantitative expertise for reviewing Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process, or ICAAP, but also on qualitative aspects such as how to foster an on-going two-way dialogue with the supervised institutions that would enhance the ICAAP process. To meet this challenge, regulators need to establish a strong credibility so as to strengthen the impact of their recommendations and requirement on ICAAP, and in some cases, increase capital  BIS Review 56/2009  1  requirement to ensure capital appropriate to the material risks, not yet covered in Pillar I. Also, there are challenges on the legal and institutional capacity aspects on how to handle the more principle-based, and therefore, more institution-specific regulatory requirement. As for the Bank of Thailand, our progress on Pillar II implementation is continuing. By working closely with all stakeholders especially Thai Bankers, Association, we have issued three prudential guidelines for Basel II since 2006. Pillar II formally took effect the end of last year, while Pillar III will be implemented in June this year. As far as Pillar II is concerned, we expect Thai banks to put in place the ICAAP within this year and establish the comprehensive process by the end of next year.

Overall, we are on track with the implementation of Basel II, thereby reaffirming our commitment to international best practice. With this brief initial remark, it is my hope that this seminar would provide the needed knowledge and skills to supervisors from SEANZA countries for the challenges posed by Pillar II. 2  BIS Review 56/2009
This correction is the result, in particular, of the less favourable economic outlook for Europe compared with the last assessment. For 2011 it is marginally higher, due mainly to a higher price for oil. Assuming an unchanged three-month Libor of 0.25%, average inflation for 2010 is expected to amount to 0.7%, for 2011 to 0.4% and for 2012 to 1.0%. The conditional inflation forecast shows that there is no threat to price stability in the short term. However, the rising path in 2012 and 2013 shows that the current expansionary monetary policy cannot be maintained over the entire forecast horizon without compromising long-term price stability. The inflation forecast is still associated with a very high level of uncertainty. Global economic outlook  I would now like to take a closer look at the economic situation and at monetary conditions. Overall, the recovery in the global economy continued, encouraged by expansionary economic policies and vigorous economic activity in the emerging economies. In the euro area, however, growth slowed markedly in the third quarter. The favourable developments in Germany’s economy differ from those in the peripheral countries of the euro area, with their weak growth. The recent financial market turmoil is likely to hamper activity in the euro area. Although domestic demand is gradually firming up in the US, the momentum is insufficient for a sustainable reduction in unemployment, which remains high. In addition, construction investment is suffering from the situation on the real estate market. Consequently, GDP growth in the US will remain modest.

Petar Goshev: Overview of the Macedonian economy Address by Mr Petar Goshev, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the farewell reception, Skopje, 16 May 2011. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, Your Excellences, dear friends! I am immensely grateful that you are here tonight, at the end of my seven-year responsibility and seven-year pleasure to govern this exceptionally important institution. I would also like to express my gratitude to those who gave me this opportunity to cope with an assignment which is incredibly challenging and highly responsible for every macro economist – to govern a central bank – a bank of the banks, bank of the state, a regulator and a supervisor of money deposit institutions and an entity responsible for the functioning of the payment systems. I would also like to thank all those who have cooperated with us all these seven years – cooperation that have positive effects, directly or indirectly, on the conduct of my tasks and the overall legal term at the National Bank.
In this way, fiscal policy’s stabilisation of public debt supports the tightening of monetary policy – fiscal policy and monetary policy are pulling in the same direction. Greater dependence than we usually think... But if the budget process works poorly and higher public expenditure is routinely financed by the government raising even more loans, then the economic agents will not expect a tighter fiscal policy, at least not until the government, at some point in the future, will perhaps find itself absolutely forced to pursue such a policy. This, in turn, helps to keep demand up and it becomes more difficult for the central bank to use rate increases to counteract the rise in inflation, as fiscal policy and monetary policy are pulling in different directions.10 Framed in this way, the relationship between monetary policy and fiscal policy is straightforward and intuitive. However, the mechanisms actually also work in about the same way when policies move in the opposite direction, and that is something that I believe we may need to pay more attention to and discuss more. If inflation is low for a period, the central bank’s policy rate will also be low. In the same way as before, therefore, government interest expenditure will be affected. But in this case, it will decrease, which means that public finances will improve. If the task of fiscal policy is to keep public debt stable, there is thus room to pursue a more expansionary fiscal policy than would otherwise be the case.

Experimenting with all stakeholders We not only engage with fintechs to facilitate their development, we also experiment with them. As central banks and supervisors, we are integral players in financial innovation. The Banque de France Lab, a laboratory for innovation, works closely with numerous fintechs to identify, explore 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  and experiment with new solutions. Another example of our commitment to cooperation to promote innovation is the establishment of the European branch of the BIS Innovation Hub, which chose Paris as well as Frankfurt. The Banque de France’s openness to innovation is one of the priorities of our strategic plan “Building 2024 together": “capture more innovations with the business lines and their ecosystems, and accelerate their implementation”. I would like to take two recent examples: central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and artificial intelligence. At the Banque de France, we carried out a programme of nine “wholesale” CBDC experiments with some fintechs. We were able to test several use cases (including securities settlement or cross-border payments) with several different technical solutions – public blockchains, private blockchains, other “distributed” solutions. We have identified the interests of players who do not have access to central bank money today in settling in a CBDC tomorrow, and explored possible linkages and synergies between wholesale and retail CBDCs.
That is because homelessness comes with wider collateral costs, for the individual most obviously, but also for society generally: the reduction in employment and income prospects; the accompanying increased risk of criminal activity and addiction to drugs or alcohol; and the increased risk of physical and mental health problems. All of these take a very significant toll on the homeless individual. But they also tax the public purse, through increased social security, criminal justice and health spending. And that is before you even get to the wider social costs of, for example, criminality and addiction on families and societies. These costs are a form of societal externality. The social value created by reduced homelessness is, then, a potential multiple of the cost of the labour input to volunteering. But how large a multiple? Well, I can tell you. And the reason I can tell you is that my thought experiment is not a hypothetical one. Last year, PBE brought together a team of volunteer economists from Oxera Consulting with a charity called Centrepoint which does wonderful work with homeless young people in  22  This estimate assumes just under 60% of these volunteers are in employment, in line with the UK employment rate. 23  Dunn et al (2014). 24  Dunn et al (2014). BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  London. 25 Centrepoint were keen to evaluate quantitatively the social benefits of their work.

10  Guild et al (2014). 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  •  The private value of volunteering activities, in particular the benefits felt by volunteers themselves; and  •  The social value of volunteering activities, as societal gains may be a multiple of economic and private benefits. I want to build up a quantitative picture of these various layers. They take us from a conventional, GDP-centric measure of economic value through to a more fashionable, wellbeing-centric measure of social welfare. In other words, this approach combines elements of both the old and the new when determining the value of volunteering. Before diving into methodology, let me just highlight a few general caveats: •  First, these value layers – economic, private and social – may not be entirely distinct. For example, the private benefits from volunteering may be the very reason people volunteer in the first place and create economic value. So we should hesitate before simply adding these benefits together. I will try to resist doing so, but will probably fail. •  Second, value measurement becomes harder the further out you go from the centre of the onion. We can make reasonably informed guesses about the economic value of volunteering, by adapting national income accounting techniques. And we can construct some reasonable proxies for private benefits from various surveys. But we have only piecemeal evidence on measuring the social value of volunteering. This, in short, is a fledgling science.
While some start-ups or tech companies aim to disrupt or dis-intermediate the financial services industry, there are many others that want to work alongside financial institutions. Singapore, being home to more than 20 global financial institutions’ innovation labs, offers a window for these companies to work with these institutions and gain global market access. Singapore, as a gateway to ASEAN and India and as a leading FinTech hub, is an ideal place for Shanghai-based FinTech firms to expand into as part of their internationalisation plans. Finally, Shanghai and Singapore authorities can also share knowledge in relation to balancing FinTech innovation with prudent regulation, governance and importantly, risk management, while nurturing progressive FinTech communities in both centres. IV. Conclusion 13 MAS and Shanghai FSO are honoured that a distinguished line-up of panel speakers from Singapore and Shanghai have agreed to join us today. I am confident that you will enjoy the 5/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  interesting and important topics for discussions, presented with insightful perspectives. Let me end here with another Chinese saying 双轨并进，共创前程. I look forward to MAS working closely together with the Shanghai FSO and the industry to make the Shanghai-Singapore Financial Forum even better in the future. On this note, I wish you a very fruitful forum ahead. Thank you. 1 Singapore was China’s 10th largest trading partner in 2015, globally. 2 Singapore was China’s 2nd largest external investor (after Hong Kong) in 2015.

A Strong Foundation for Shanghai – Singapore Partnership 5 Over the years, China and Singapore have developed a strong bilateral relationship. Trade and economic ties are robust and strong. This is a firm foundation for the Shanghai – Singapore relationship to grow from strength to strength: In 2015, Sino-Singapore bilateral trade rose 1.6% year-on-year to SGD 123.5 billion or about USD 90 billion. For the third consecutive year, China was Singapore’s largest trading partner. Singapore was China’s 3rd largest trading partner in ASEAN 1. During the same period, Shanghai – Singapore bilateral trade saw steady growth to reach almost USD 13 billion. In 2015, Singapore’s investments into China amounted to about USD 7 billion, an increase of 18.5% from 2014. For the third consecutive year, Singapore was China’s largest foreign investor2. Singapore was China’s 5th largest investment destination. Singapore’s actual investments into Shanghai expanded an impressive 160% year-on-year to reach USD 2.2 billion in 2015. 6 In particular, financial cooperation between both countries has thrived. In September this year, President Xi Jinping met PM Lee Hsien Loong at the side-lines of the G20 meetings in Hangzhou. Both leaders noted the positive progress achieved in the latest government-togovernment (G-to-G) project in Chongqing. Financial cooperation was highlighted as an area that has made strong headway. China and Singapore also achieved several new financial cooperation milestones in 2016.
It also has involved cooperation in not only the areas of surveillance and harmonisation of rules and regulations, but also the assessment of risks to the region and the building of regional financial safety nets. Finally, allow me to say something about the current environment. While Asia has not been immune from the effects of the turbulence and upheavals taking place in the different parts of the world, the region has been able to demonstrate time and again the ability to manage a swift rebound. Factors that have contributed to this resilience is not so much what we have done in response to the development but it is what we have done previously that prepared us to manage these developments. We have been better able to absorb and intermediate the financial turmoil and turbulence, while the series of financial reforms we have implemented have also increased our flexibility and produced better price and exchange rate adjustments. This has been reinforced by our sound macroeconomic fundamentals and the policy space we have to manage the implications of these challenging developments. Looking ahead, there is much to be done by all of us. I have always said that the business of Central Banking is an unfinished business. There will always be new challenges on the horizon. In Asia, while we have successfully prepared ourselves for the current environment, we now need to prepare ourselves for the future.

These include: The Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility will bolster the effectiveness of the Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program by supplying liquidity to participating financial institutions through two-year loans backed by PPP loans as collateral. The Main Street Lending Program will enhance support for small and mid-sized businesses that were in good financial standing before the crisis by purchasing up to $ billion in fouryear loans to small and mid-size businesses. The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) will support issuance of securities backed by student loans, auto loans, credit card loans, small business loans, and other debt. Moving with Maximum Care Considering the speed and scale of damage caused by the virus outbreak, we are making all efforts to implement these facilities at maximum speed. At the same time, though, we are moving with maximum care, drawing upon all of the lessons learned since 2008. First and foremost, we know that transparency will be key to sustaining public confidence in our efforts. What does this mean in practice? It means that when we work with outside vendors, we explain why we’re doing so, who we’re working with, and how much we’re paying for their services. It requires if we accelerate the vendor selection process to minimize time to market, we operate under a short-term contract and then open up the process to a competitive range of bidders, looking beyond the largest and most established players and providing broad access to a diverse range of smaller players.