samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
(2) Percentage corresponds only to FCIC1 and FCIC2 The LCL is limited to the reserve requirement of each banking company. These measures were complemented by a bank bond purchase program. Sources Central Bank of Chile based on the International Monetary Fund, central banks and budget offices. Peru  Table 2  Domestic scenario  (annual change, percent)  2019  2020 (f)  2021 (f)  MP Report Jun.20 GDP Domestic demand Domestic demand (w/o inventory change) Gross fixed capital formation Total consumption Goods and services exports Goods and services imports Current account (% of GDP) Gross national savings (% of GDP) Gross fixed nominal capital formation (% of GDP)  1.1 1.0 1.5 4.2 0.8 -2.3 -2.3 -3.9 18.9 22.4  MP Report Sep.20  -7.5/-5.5 -10.4 -6.8 -15.9 -4.2 -0.3 -14.1 0.8 17.5 20.0  -5.5/-4.5 -7.1 -5.6 -10.6 -4.2 -2.2 -9.4 -1.4 18.5 21.0  (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

14  China  Korea  Japan  Chile  -40  U.S.  -40  Germany  -30  Canada  -30  Eurozone  -20  Colombia  -20  Italy  -10  Mexico  -10  France  0  U. K.  0  Spain  10  Peru  10  Figure 5  Economic activity by sector (annual change, percent)  10  10 Other (*)  0  Manufacturing, financial services, agriculture-forestry  -10  Total  Retail, restaurants & hotels, transportation, and personal services  -20  -10 -20 -30  -30 -40  0  Construction 19 19  19 May  19 Sep.  20 20  20 May  -40  (*) Considers Fishery, Electricity, gas, water, and waste management, Mining, Communications and information services, entrepreneurial services, Housing and real-estate services, and Public administration. Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 6  Employment by occupational category (y-o-y difference, thousand persons)  500  500  Salaried, informal  0 -500  0 Other (*)  Salaried, formal  -500 Self-employed  -1.000 -1.500  -1.000 -1.500  Total -2.000  19 19  19 May. 19 Sep.  2020  20 May. -2.000  (*) Includes self-employed workers, employers, household help, and non-remunerated household work. Fuente: Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas.
Like the SSM, the SRM is based on a common regulatory framework (the BRRD Directive and the SRM regulation), and is structured around a Single Resolution Board and joint resolution teams. Although the SSM and the SRM have both been successful in managing the first bank liquidations or resolutions (i.e. those concerning the Veneto banks and Banco Popular), the second pillar still has to be finalised. Achieving this goal is essential, both to prevent the contagion of banking crises and to ensure the continuity of critical banking functions. In this regard, France has worked hard for the creation of a common backstop, the main features of which were decided just a few months ago. Three issues still need to be addressed however: the duration of the credit lines provided by the backstop; the creation of a rapid decision-making process in the event of an emergency; and the provision of liquidity to banks in resolution. Once these matters have been resolved, we can hope, and at the Banque de France it is our firm belief, that a pragmatic compromise can be found on the third pillar – the deposit guarantee scheme. c. … and building a Capital Markets Union to create a true Financing Union Evidently, financial integration is not just about achieving banking union. Ensuring the balanced and sustainable financing of the economy also implies deeper integration of capital markets, which fosters greater geographical diversification in savings and meets corporate firms’ financing needs – notably equity financing.

After just over four years of existence, the SSM today constitutes a unique and efficient model, based on the application of the EU Single Rulebook (under the direction of the European Banking Authority – EBA), close cooperation between the ECB and national authorities on all levels (ECB Supervisory Board, Joint Supervisory Teams, on-site inspections teams), and the principles of subsidiarity and proportionality (the ECB directly supervises 119 of the largest banking groups while all other institutions are supervised through national authorities). The SSM represents a major institutional step forward and the initial results are real. Banking supervision practices have been harmonised upwards and are now aligned with the highest international standards (for example, the methodology for the supervisory review and evaluation process or SREP). Europe’s banking industry is today significantly more robust than before the crisis: the biggest banks’ CET1 ratio has increased by more than 3 percentage points since 2014 (from 11.3% to 14.6% at end-2017) and their balance sheets have largely been cleaned up (through a reduction in the NPL ratio from 7.6% to 4.9% over the same period). The industry’s resilience was confirmed in the stress tests organised by the ECB and EBA in 2018, which simulated the impact of financial shocks on the solvency of the largest banks: in an 5/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  adverse scenario, the average CET1 ratio for the sample would come out at 9.9% – or 1 percentage point higher than in the previous exercise in 2016.
Rodrigo Vergara: The Monetary Policy Report and the Financial Stability Report Presentation by Mr Rodrigo Vergara, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, before the Finance Commission of the Honorable Senate of the Republic, Santiago de Chile, 15 December 2014. *  *  *  The Monetary Policy Report of December 2014 and the Financial Stability Report of the second half of 2014 can be accessed at http://www.bcentral.cl. Introduction Mr. President of the Finance Commission of the Senate, Senator Ricardo Lagos, senators members of this Commission, ladies, gentlemen. Thank you for inviting me to present Central Bank of Chile’s financial and macroeconomic outlook and its view on the most recent developments and their implications for monetary and financial policy. This vision is contained in detail in our December 2014 Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) and our Financial Stability Report (IEF) of the second half of 2014. In recent months, our macroeconomic outlook has reflected unexpectedly high inflation and a slowdown in economic growth. In the projection scenario that I will be presenting shortly, we have revised upward our inflation forecast for the coming months, although we continue to estimate that it will converge to 3 percent during 2015. We have also revised downward our growth forecast for domestic output and demand this and next year. There are several factors underlying these corrections. The inflation surprises of the past few months originated in specific prices and were mostly temporary.

Our answers have been clear. First of all, we appreciate the discussion aimed at perfecting areas that may help to improve our fellow Chileans’ standards of living and further develop our economy. However, the Central Bank will not take part in the particulars of each of the reforms, because they lie beyond its scope of action. Secondly, we value the fact that if some reforms entail permanent increases in public spending, their funding comes from increased permanent income, so as to preserve the fiscal soundness our economy has displayed for decades. Third, it is logical – and recognized as such across the board – that reforms of this magnitude generate some uncertainties and worries, pushing back investment projects and affecting economic activity. But this effect is difficult to quantify. Lastly, in our pursuit of institutional stability, we think it is positive that the deepest agreements possible be reached around the major reforms being now debated in the country. From this perspective we appreciate the spirit of the agreement led by the Finance Minister and this Parliament for the approval of the tax reform. Also, I would like to explain the role played by the Central Bank in the context of the economic slowdown we are experiencing. The function of monetary policy is not to prevent the economy from adjusting, but rather to help the adjustment to be smooth and not jeopardize the convergence of inflation.
Unemployment and output gaps Per cent 6  6 Unemployment gap  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4 Output gap  -6 -8 1980  -6 -8  1982  1984  1986  1988  1990  1992  1994  1996  1998  Source: The Riksbank  While good forecasts of inflation can be made without knowing the exact levels of potential GDP and the NAIRU, for those of us who conduct monetary policy it is naturally a problem that it is difficult to tell just how much employment can rise without entailing a risk of a renewed acceleration of wages and inflation. But that is no reason for believing that the functioning of the labour market and wage formation will not be of central importance for future inflation. This brings me to the current situation in the labour market. The current situation in the labour market The Riksbank’s view of the Swedish economy in the coming years is comparatively optimistic. With the low interest rates and some recovery in international economic activity, GDP growth is judged to be 2.5 per cent this year and 3 per cent in both 2000 and 2001. As I mentioned earlier, this will presumably involve the gradual utilisation of the resources that are unutilised at present.

Michael C Bonello: Launch of the Forum for Financial Stability Introductory remarks by Mr Michael C Bonello, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, at the launch of the Forum for Financial Stability, Valletta, 23 May 2011. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, I should first of all like to thank you for having accepted our invitation to today’s launch of the Forum for Financial Stability. I would also like to extend a special welcome to our guest speakers, the Chairman of the MFSA, the Secretary General of the MBA and Mr John Fell, Deputy Director General of the ECB’s Financial Stability (Directorate General). In my own introductory remarks I shall attempt to provide a context for the creation of this Forum, in which I trust your respective institutions will play an active role. In this regard it is important to note that central banks have an intrinsic interest in financial stability. Indeed, this interest is recognized in statutory instruments. Thus while the Treaty states that the ECB’s primary objective is to maintain price stability, it also stipulates that it should contribute to the stability of the financial system. Echoing this thinking, our own Central Bank of Malta Act, while giving primacy to the implementation of the ECB’s monetary policy, also enjoins us to ensure the stability of the financial system. The concern of central banks with the health of the financial system is explained by the fact that price stability and financial stability complement one another.
Jörg Asmussen: Lessons from Latvia and the Baltics Introductory remarks by Mr Jörg Asmussen, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, to the panel “Lessons from Latvia and the Baltics” at the High-level conference on Latvia, Riga, 5 June 2012. *  *  *  Dear ladies and gentlemen, It is my pleasure to be here today in Riga to discuss the lessons from the Baltic recovery. In the Hanseatic League, to which Riga and other Baltic cities belonged, commerce and politics went hand in hand. And history is never far away from the headlines of the day. The ongoing financial and sovereign debt crisis illustrates yet again how closely economics and politics interact – for good or for bad. I would like to structure my intervention around the following three main questions: •  What makes the Latvian experience so special in the context of the current crisis? •  What can euro area countries learn from the Baltic recovery? •  What can Latvia itself learn from its adjustment? I. When good economics coincides with good politics  It is said that “good economics is often bad politics” and vice versa. The experience of Latvia and more generally the Baltics is worth exploring precisely because it defied this conventional wisdom – both economically and politically. First, it disproved the frequently made claim that an internal devaluation strategy cannot work. From 2008, Latvia was faced with the deepest recession in the world.

This is what a responsible government ought to do:  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  •  to state that the adjustment is for the country’s own good, and not just to please international lenders;  •  to tell the hard truth;  •  to explain what needs to be done;  •  to be clear what the consequences of non-action or of alternative policy choices would be. All this is conducive to public acceptance of the programme and, therefore, its success. And this is also in the enlightened self-interest of the government, as the electoral reward of the Latvian Prime Minister demonstrates. Beyond economic considerations, the adjustment programme has to be put into a broader context. Political factors can also be key justifications for undertaking difficult economic measures. In the case of the Baltics, the ultimate objective of adopting the euro also has a geostrategic dimension, namely completing their firm anchoring in a Union based on freedom, democracy and human rights. In fact, sharing a currency is more than just drawing economic benefits; it means being part of a community with a shared destiny. This project of political integration justifies making short-term sacrifices to join – or stay within – the euro area. To sum up, a speedy fiscal adjustment, a critical mass of structural reforms and a strong national ownership: these were, in my view, the key ingredients of the Baltic recipe for a quick economic rebound.
24 There are naturally a large number of aspects to consider – economic, legal, technical and even almost philosophical. I would like to say a few words here about how an ekrona might affect the scope for conducting monetary policy. 25  Effects on monetary policy depend on the design The effects differ quite considerably depending on whether an e-krona would be interest-bearing or not, that is, if an interest rate could be linked to holdings of ekrona. A non-interest-bearing e-krona would be more like present-day cash and would be less of change compared to today, but the monetary policy consequences would not necessarily be insignificant. 23 For a more detailed review, see Söderberg (2018). 24  Sveriges Riksbank (2017, 2018b). For a current progress report on the e-krona project, see Söderberg (2019). 25 For a more detailed review of this, see Armelius et al. (2018). 12 [21]  For example, the Riksbank would probably no longer be able to cut the policy rate to the levels of recent years. Previously, it was generally assumed that central banks would not be able to cut their rates below zero. The reason was that the economic agents – households, companies, banks and financial institutions – were then expected to start holding large amounts of cash as the interest rate for it is zero and therefore higher than the negative rate. Today we know that central bank policy rates can be negative without there being a massive run on cash.

This would contribute to both better understanding and greater legitimacy for the policy conducted by the central bank. It should be added here that the Riksbank’ monetary policy is evaluated every year, that is, how the Riksbank has performed its remit. The Riksdag Committee on Finance performs an annual review based on background material such as the “Account of monetary policy”, a report compiled and published by the Riksbank. 15 In addition, the Committee on Finance occasionally hires external experts to review Swedish monetary policy. So far three such reviews have been conducted: By Francesco Giavazzi and Frederic Mishkin for the period 1995-2005, by Charles  14 Advocates of a higher inflation target include Blanchard et al. (2013), Ball (2014), Krugman (2014), Rosengren (2015) and Yates (2019). 15 See Sveriges Riksdag (2018) and Sveriges Riksbank (2018a) for the latest versions of these publications. 9 [21]  Goodhart and Jean-Charles Rochet for the period 2005-2010 and by Marvin Goodfriend and Mervyn King for the period 2010-2015. 16 Although these external reviews have sometimes touched upon issues related to the policy objective, their main purpose has been to evaluate the monetary policy conducted, based on the existing policy objective. These reviews are undoubtedly valuable and fulfil their purpose effectively, but it is something else I have in mind here. Canada has chosen a system with reviews of the central bank’s remit every fifth year. 17 The latest review from 2016 analysed, among other things, whether the level of the inflation target was the most appropriate.
Jaime Caruana: The future of banking supervision in Europe Address by Mr Jaime Caruana, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, at the conference “Supervision of International Banks: Is a Bank Crisis still Possible in Europe?” – European Banking Federation (FBE), Brussels, 28 October 2005. *  *  *  Introduction First of all, I would like to thank Michel Pébereau and the European Banking Federation for inviting me here today to participate in this conference on important issues relating to the future of banking supervision in Europe. Usually I speak from the perspective of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Today, however, I will mainly take the viewpoint of one of the central banks of the Eurosystem with banking supervisory responsibilities. The subject of this debate is particularly timely, given the European Commission’s current initiative to define financial services policy for the EU over the next five years, to which I understand the FBE has been an active contributor. I would like to use my time this morning to suggest a number of principles that I believe could help in addressing the key challenges for European banking supervision structures in the coming years, and also to reflect on some concrete steps to build a European framework fit to meet these challenges. What is the main issue we face?

To understand the most recent interest rate decisions, it is important to remember that we do not adjust the repo rate to affect the present inflation rate, but to influence inflation a couple of years ahead. It takes time for monetary policy to achieve its full impact on the economy. Monetary policy must therefore be based on expectations of the future, i.e. we are dependent on forecasts. It is therefore necessary that we occasionally ”lean against the wind”, that is, that we raise the repo rate despite the current inflation rate being below target level or that we lower the repo rate despite inflation being above the target level. If we were only to look at the present inflation rate, there is a risk that we would be forced to make more drastic adjustments further ahead and this type of roller-coaster interest policy would benefit no one. How do we assess future inflation prospects? The economic outlook is currently bright, both in Sweden and abroad. International growth has been both high and stable in recent years (diagram 1). Strong growth in the United States and parts of Asia has been a driving force for global economic activity. Increased participation in global trade by, among others, several Asian countries has contributed to this upswing and to stiffer international competition. So far, the increase in global  BIS Review 12/2006  1  demand has not had a visible impact on consumer prices.
By drawing explicitly on the information embedded in the network, PageRank produced dramatically improved web search capabilities. By now, the graduate project had become a company called Google. The vast, growing multi-dimensional cats-cradle of global information could now be sliced and diced in fractions of a second. Navigating the web no longer required a specialist pilot; it could be mapped by a novice. The World Wide Web had been given an instantaneous backrub. That has yielded vast productivity improvements. Google itself is today valued at around $ billion, having gained in value by on average $ million every week of its life. Applications of Google’s network mapping technology grow by the day. For example, Google indicators produced from the analysis of the popularity of search terms such as “estate agents” or “motor vehicles” have outperformed some existing indicators of house prices and motor sales.19 And what has allowed the World Wide Web to be Googled in this way? A common language. (d)  Lowering barriers to entry  Creating a common language also has the potential to transform the industrial organisation of an industry. It does so by simultaneously expanding the frontiers of a global network and by lowering the barriers to entering it. This allows new companies, with innovative and superior product offerings, to quickly erode the market share of incumbents. Higher productivity and growth have been the fruits.20 Global supply chains are one example. Prior to GS1 standards, small suppliers faced an uphill struggle connecting to global supply chains.

Digital publishing and distribution has fundamentally changed this market. Both the books and the shelves are now electronic. Authors can now format books for e-readers in a couple of hours. Sales platforms like Amazon Kindle Direct give access to a worldwide audience with essentially no upfront costs. Supply can close to perfectly match demand as the marginal cost of creating and delivering an eBook is effectively zero. This digital revolution has caused barriers to entry to plummet while simultaneously raising returns to author entry: they now receive as much as 85% of the royalties from an eBook, compared to as little as 10% from a physical book. Previously unpublished authors now sell millions of books. The incumbent middle men – book publishers, distributors and retailers – have found their lunch devoured in one sitting. In effect, they have been disintermediated by technology and (in a delicious irony) a common language. This pattern has been replicated in the music industry. For half a century or more, the music supply chain was unchanged. New acts were discovered by large record labels who distributed physical goods (vinyl, tapes or CDs) to retailers for sale to the public. Over the past decade, the costs of copying and distributing music have fallen to close to zero. As in publishing, barriers to new artist entry have plummeted. The middle-men – music production companies and distributors – have seen their piece of the pie eaten. And as a direct result of this industrial transformation, the pie itself appears to have grown.