And associated with such a re-balancing, one would expect to see some shift in the structure of production away from sectors focussed on serving domestic needs towards those producing internationally tradable goods and services. The re-balancing should be facilitated by the depreciation of sterling – down around a quarter since the middle of 2007 – but is still at an early stage. Household spending stagnated over 2010 and remains around 4% below its pre-recession level (Chart 2). The sluggishness of consumer spending should hardly be a surprise. Real post-tax labour incomes have been squeezed by a mix of low pay growth and elevated inflation on the back of higher VAT, energy and import prices. In addition, heightened uncertainty probably led some households to increase their savings or pare back their debts. The most recent survey of retailers by the British Retail Consortium suggested that the fine Easter weather and the royal nuptials may have brought a welcome fillip to the High Street, but with the squeeze on real pay likely to continue through this year, it seems likely that consumer spending will remain subdued through this year at least. Public spending will also  1  Though not all: recent employment data, for instance, have been surprisingly robust. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  provide little impetus to overall activity, given the necessary fiscal consolidation that is now under way. That, of course, is a particular issue here in Northern Ireland. So, the prospect for overall growth depends heavily on business spending and external demand.

08.10.2020  Banking resolution: firm foundations for stability SRB Conference 2020/Session II: Resolution planning under the Banking Package: continuity and innovation Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let me begin by thanking the organisers, and the SRB Chair in particular, for giving me the opportunity to participate in this conference. Five years have passed since the Single Resolution Board was established as the resolution authority within the Banking Union. That is certainly a short time by institutional standards but, looking back, I would argue that the progress made has been significant. Under the leadership of its chair, Elke König, the SRB has finalised resolution plans – along with their MREL requirements – for all significant institutions. It has likewise fostered their resolvability, and has put in place effective mechanisms for cooperation with the national resolution authorities. All these arrangements have already proved their effectiveness. From a broader perspective, I would also argue that a more robust European crisis management environment has been conceived. Harmonisation of procedures not only strengthens the Banking Union as it is; I am sure it will also prove essential in future crossborder consolidation initiatives. Bail-in has aligned incentives for managers and creditors alike in reducing excessive risk-taking. And, as a much wished intangible asset to a central banker like myself, the existence of a Single Fund is another milestone, partially mutualising risks in the Euro Area, which is moving forward with a more complete Monetary Union.