samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The creation of investor relations programmes and the regular briefing of creditors about developments in economic policy can play a role in providing the information which the market requires to assess the riskiness of sovereign loans. It is never too early to build a relationship with actual or potential creditors. The IMF, in collaboration with the private sector, have recently drawn up a set of guidelines that countries might usefully follow when setting up an investor relations programme. The second aspect of relationships with creditors is the insertion of collective action clauses in sovereign debt contracts. This proposal, advanced originally in a G10 Deputies' report in 1996, has gradually become accepted as a sensible step forward. The UK has introduced collective action clauses into its foreign currency debt instruments. And just last month, the G7 Finance Ministers agreed on the importance of introducing collective action clauses into debt contracts to facilitate crisis management. Again, time may be on the side of reform. 4. Fourth, in the long run, the best way to avoid the problem of liquidity crises is for the composition of capital flows to emerging markets to move away from debt, both bank and bond, finance towards portfolio equity and direct investment. Shocks to the borrowing country would take the form of a fall in equity prices, not a liquidity run with its associated risk of a financial crisis and the need for external finance. Encouragingly, the pattern of capital flows to emerging markets is already evolving in that direction.

Source: CBRT. Inflation and monetary policy outlook  Distinguished Members of the Press, Esteemed Guests, Having summarized our monetary policy stance and the impact of this stance on financial markets, I would now like to talk about the macroeconomic outlook and assumptions underlying our forecasts. First, I would like to summarize the recent inflation developments and then I will compare our short-term forecasts with the actual data recorded in the first quarter. As you might recall, in the October 2010 Inflation Report, we drew attention to the price hikes due to increases in unprocessed food and tobacco prices, which are beyond the control of the CBRT, and concluded that these items would leave sizeable room for disinflation. In fact, during the subsequent two quarters, inflation declined by 5.2 percentage points and dropped to  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  4 percent in March, a level close to the lower bound of our January Inflation Report forecast (Chart 5). Chart 5. January 2011 Inflation Forecasts and Realizations  Forecast Range*  Uncertainty Band  Year-End Inflation Targets  12  Output Gap  Control Horizon  10 8 6 Percent  4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Dec-13  Sep-13  Jun-13  Mar-13  Dec-12  Sep-12  Jun-12  Mar-12  Dec-11  Sep-11  Jun-11  Mar-11  Sep-10  Dec-10  Jun-10  Mar-10  Dec-09  -10  * Shaded region indicates the 70 percent confidence interval for the forecast.
There have been and are differences between the market agents’ expected repo rate and the repo rate path. However, there are also difficulties in measuring market expectations through forward rates. This applies in normal cases and even more so in times of financial crisis. Even if it is the case, we can probably note that the differences have been rather the rule than the exception. There has been no systematic deviation in any one direction. All in all, I think that with the aid of the repo rate path we have succeeded relatively well in steering expectations. In connection with the introduction of the repo rate path, there were discussions as to whether there would be a confidence crisis if the market does not “buy” our repo rate path. But, as shown, this does not need to be an expression of mistrust. And talking about confidence, my view is that the final proof that households and companies have confidence in the Riksbank’s monetary policy is that inflation expectations are anchored close to the target of two per cent. Surveys indicate clearly that inflation expectations in the long run are very well anchored around the inflation target. I interpret this to mean that the general public has confidence that the Riksbank will adapt its monetary policy to attain the inflation target. 10  BIS Review 85/2010

The problem arises in the case of people who are unable to move forward at the speed of the market. They become laggards and are left out. Hence, there should be a special strategy to bring them to the mainstream of economic life. The normal strategy that had been adopted to address this issue has been the introduction of safety nets to capture them before they make a free fall to the ground. The safety nets so introduced have taken different forms depending on the era or the country. About five decades ago, the safety nets took the form of providing outright grants to the poor people. The objective of the grants was to provide some relief to them, so that they could at least meet their food requirements. The weaknesses in this type of strategies are well known. It encourages poor people to remain in the safety net forever. They have no incentive to move out of the net, because moving out would mean their having to work hard for a living. If at least the basic requirement of food is provided free of charge, then why would anyone want to work for the same? Economists have long named this problem “moral hazard” problem. This problem simply says that, when one helps another, the person being helped does not have the incentive to adopt even the minimum safety measures. As a result, he increases the chance of the occurrence of the event which the helper desires to prevent.
Data quality is less good than for frequent volunteering, but ONS estimate this could add a further £ The ONS have recently put out an estimate of the total value of informal volunteering in 2012. It is nearly as significant as formal Informal volunteering (not through volunteering, and its contribution is organisations) estimated at £ (both frequent and infrequent). You need to make assumptions here about the role of capital, and the level of productivity in volunteer jobs. Based on rough calculations that treat volunteer jobs Official estimates only measure the value of labour inputs to volunteering, not the outputs. like labour-intensive service industries, the current method could be understating “output” by perhaps a quarter. But this is very uncertain. Hard to know whether volunteers perform in It could be that volunteers are less the same way as paid workers (whose productive than experienced workers in wages are used as a proxy for volunteer some jobs. But they might be more output) enthusiastic. 1.25*(18.6 + 1.7 + 23.9) -> gives you around Potential higher estimate (very uncertain) £ as a possible alternative estimate. Infrequent volunteering (less than once per month)  Source: Bank and Pro Bono Economics calculations. 24  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 11: Survey responses for volunteering regularly  Source: 2006/07 Helping Out survey.

But what people say and do are not always the same – and several studies have shown that this approach may lead to systematic upward biases. 13 Perhaps the most authoritative method is to use national surveys of well-being and life satisfaction alongside data on the characteristics of the survey participants. This approach lies behind the recent report by Fujiwara et al (2014). This report estimates the impact of various factors, including formal volunteering, on an individual’s life satisfaction. Their results provide a relatively clear ranking of what factors really matter for well-being. Health (physical and especially mental) comes at the top of this well-being league table, followed by employment prospects. On the next rung down, however, sits volunteering. In terms of personal well-being, this puts volunteering on a similar footing to playing sport. If you were wondering where watching TV would come in the well-being list I can tell you – close to the bottom. Indeed, watching TV is found to detract from well-being. 14 This I think confirms what we all knew deep down: X-Factor is bad for you. It is possible to translate these into monetary-equivalent values – the money an individual would need to be given to increase their well-being by the same amount. On this evidence, you would need to be compensated around £ on average per person per year for forgoing the opportunity to volunteer. 15 That is a very significant sum for the average person, whose median annual salary was only £ in 2013.
Gent Sejko: Bank of Albania – strengthening governance and recent other challenges Introductory statement by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, presenting the Annual Report 2015 to the Parliamentary Committee on Economy and Finance, Tirana, 29 March 2016. *  *  *  Honourable Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on Economy and Finance, Honourable Members of the Committee, It is my special pleasure to present, in this hearing session with the Parliamentary Committee on Economy and Finance, the Annual Report of the Bank of Albania for 2015. In 2015, the Bank of Albania has worked to successfully fulfil its objectives stemming from the Law “On the Bank of Albania”, as well as all the other obligations arising from relevant sublegal acts and relations with our international partners. I would like to start my presentation, focusing on the activity of the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania. 1. Decisions of the Supervisory Council  At the beginning of 2015, the management team of the Bank of Albania was rendered complete. Thus, thanks to the support of the Assembly of the Republic of Albania, the vacant positions in the Supervisory Council were completed, the Governor, the Second Deputy Governor and Inspector General of the Bank of Albania were appointed. During 2015, the Council met 15 times and approved 98 decisions. Of them, 63 consisted in acts approved for the first time, and 35 in amendments to existing acts.

The implementation of these measures, beyond the approximation of our regulatory framework with the EU Acquis, ensures a stronger resilience of banking system against the above-stated shocks, and the continuation of the provided financial services, already being integrated in the daily life of citizens and businesses. The consolidation of banking system and the increase in the number of banks with a high share in the banking system impose differentiated addressing of the latter for mitigating systemic risks and the effects on the taxpayers' money in case of possible crisis in the future. Concluding, I take the opportunity to re-assure that the Bank of Albania, in carrying out its function as supervisor and regulator, will continue to support you and be your partner both in good and rainy days, by providing transparency, cooperation and objective assessment of your requests and proposals in every decision making. I wish you a successful and prosperous new year! 4/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
Even so, targeted fiscal and monetary stimulus measures should support growth at close to 7% this year. •  Against this backdrop, overall growth in Emerging Asia will remain firm, at 6% this year. Banks in Emerging Asia will therefore not do badly. There are, however, downside risks that they need to watch. First, the divergence in monetary policy settings among the G3 economies could pose risks to financial stability that could also potentially hurt growth. The anticipated normalisation of interest rates in the US against continuing quantitative easing in the Eurozone and Japan will be reflected in sharp movements in exchange rates and bond yields. This is not a prediction, it is already happening. The scenario of a “double whammy” posed by a rise in US interest rates and a strong US Dollar could expose vulnerabilities among some Asian borrowers. •  Rising interest rates will increase the debt servicing burden of Asian households and corporates, especially those who have taken on high levels of debt at low rates. •  Asian corporates with large unhedged dollar borrowings could face increasing stress as a strengthening dollar undermines their ability to repay loans. Banks in Emerging Asia could face higher non-performing loans. They could also face reduced US Dollar funding if there are large capital outflows from Asia. But their liquidity and capital positions are generally sound and they should be able to weather this. What matters is the medium to long term, and here the outlook for Asia remains sanguine.

And the characteristic reluctance of savers to invest outside their home market may be diminishing. Alongside these longer terms trends, financial markets today also show the effects of other forces. The extraordinary growth in earnings of energy and commodity exporters, the substantial rise in wealth that has come with rapid growth in China, India, and other emerging markets, together with efforts by many of those governments to stem the appreciation of their currencies, has led to a rise in capital flows, official and private, into the United States and other major economies. These flows seem large enough to have had a material effect on global interest rates and asset prices. These changes in economic conditions reinforce each other. The long period of relative economic and financial stability has reinforced expectations of future stability, reducing implied volatility and risk premia, increasing comfort with higher leverage, and encouraging flows of capital into riskier assets. BIS Review 49/2007  1  The low level of real interest rates that has prevailed in much of the world through this expansion has contributed to relatively accommodative financial conditions. The high levels of reserve accumulation by governments with heavily managed exchange rate regimes put downward pressure on forward interest rates, potentially distorting asset prices. The increase in size of sovereign wealth funds, the shift in assets to hedge fund and private equity managers, and the possible reduction in home bias among private savers have increased the amount of mobile capital in search of higher returns.
The issues discussed – the Chinese strategy for economic development and its implications for the pace of the shift of labour from rural agriculture to urban industry, saving rates in the United States, financial reform in China, and certainly the dollar-renminbi exchange rate – are all in the purview of several multilateral bodies, such as the new IMF multilateral consultation, the bi-annual IMFC meetings, the BIS, the G7, the G20, and so on. Progress at bilateral meetings is to be welcomed. Indeed, the existing multilateral forums may simply be too cumbersome or inefficient for any useful dialogue to occur. But many of the most pressing economic concerns cannot easily be handled in a bilateral setting. For example, even the infamous international “imbalances” can no longer be seen as a bilateral phenomenon: a large US trade deficit matched by a large Chinese trade surplus. Following the rise in oil prices over the past two years, the largest current account imbalances are to be found in the oil-producing countries. The combined trade surplus of OPEC in 2006 is likely to be around $ billion, compared with a surplus in China of $ billion. The pattern of trade imbalances and exchange rate movements is inherently a multilateral one, and real progress requires dialogue in a multilateral setting. 3. What are the principles of institutional design? Changes to the number of nation states and the way they interact mean that reform of our multilateral institutions is needed. But piecemeal reforms are unlikely to work.

Ravi Menon: Introducing Mark Carney Introductory remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the 2014 Monetary Authority of Singapore Lecture, Singapore, 17 November 2014. *  *  *  Mr Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of England, Deputy Prime Minister and Chairman, MAS, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Ambassadors, distinguished guests, friends and colleagues, good morning, Welcome to the eighth MAS Lecture. First held in 2000, the MAS Lecture has over the years featured several eminent members of the international financial community who have offered their perspectives on important economic and financial issues. Today, Mark Carney joins that distinguished band of leaders in finance, and it is my pleasure to introduce him. Carney has the rare distinction of serving as governor for not just one central bank but two: •  From 2008 to 2013, Carney was Governor of the Bank of Canada, playing a major role in helping Canada avoid the worst effects of the Global Financial Crisis. •  And since the middle of last year, he has been Governor of the Bank of England, the first time that a non-Briton has taken the helm of that hallowed institution in its 320-year history. •  Perhaps the transition was made easier by the fact that the appointments of both the Governor of the Bank of England and that of the Bank of Canada are made in the name of the Queen.
At the same time, our expectation for a moderate recovery in 2015 and 2016 remains in place. Demand should be supported by a number of factors. Among them are our monetary policy measures and progress made in fiscal consolidation and structural reforms in some countries. At the same time, high unemployment, sizeable unutilised capacity, and the still ongoing and necessary balance sheet adjustments are likely to dampen the recovery. Risks to the economic outlook continue to be on the downside. In particular, the weakening in the euro area’s growth momentum, alongside heightened geopolitical risks, could dampen confidence and, in particular, private investment. In addition, insufficient progress in structural reforms in euro area countries constitutes a key downward risk to the economic outlook. Inflation in the euro area remains very low. In October, it stood at 0.4%. We expect it to remain at around current low levels over the coming months, before increasing gradually during 2015 and 2016. Looking forward, we closely monitor risks to price developments. The latest monetary data point to subdued underlying growth in broad money. Its annual growth rate has increased moderately over recent months. It appears that the turning point in credit growth is now behind us, and credit growth rates, while remaining negative, are gradually improving. Monetary policy and financial fragmentation Let me turn to financial fragmentation, the first topic you suggested for today’s hearing.

They will enhance the transmission of monetary policy, support the provision of credit to the euro area economy and, as a result, provide further monetary policy accommodation. We see early indications that our credit easing package is delivering tangible benefits. Since the beginning of June, forward money market rates have shown steep declines across the maturity spectrum. Now, the forward curve consistently lies below zero over a two-year horizon. EONIA is not expected to exceed 25bps before well into 2018. The 3-month EURIBOR rate, which is an important conduit of monetary policy impulses to lending rates, dropped to all-time lows and now stands close to zero. And the policy decisions, in particular those announced in September, triggered a compression of spreads across other asset classes, including ABS, covered bonds and sovereign bonds. But more time is needed for the full materialisation of the positive effects of the most recent set of measures. In this context, let me emphasise that we are committed to scale the total magnitude of our measures – lending operations as well as outright purchases – up to a size that can deliver the intended support to inflation and the recovery of the euro area economy. All these measures will have a sizeable impact on our balance sheet, which we expect to move towards its early 2012 dimension.
So, I was not surprised when he remarked that he was not sure as to how he can explain all what I had said to him, to ordinary people, as my explanation seemed too technical and high-flown. He then told me, “Governor, Can you please explain what you just said to me, in layman’s language?” This was my reply to that challenging question: “To score runs in a cricket match, when one batsman strikes the ball, both batsmen have to run, each to their opposite ends. When the second batsman strikes the ball, once again, both batsmen have to run, each to their opposite ends. That is how the team will be able to accumulate its runs. For an effective partnership to be built, both batsmen have to diligently run for each other’s strikes. In the same way, for an economic partnership of the country to succeed, it is vital that there is a clear understanding between the Governor and the Secretary, Treasury. And, each time the Governor strikes, both the Governor and the Secretary have to run, and when the Secretary strikes, both the Governor and the Secretary have to run once again. That is the type of relationship that has to exist between the Governor and the Secretary to the Treasury.” My journalist friend’s eyes brightened and his boredom vanished. The expression on his face indicated to me that he had finally understood what this complex relationship is all about.

Philipp Hildebrand: Financial market turbulence and the economic outlook Summary of a speech by Mr Philipp Hildebrand, Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Handels- und Industrieverein des Kantons Bern, BurgdorfEmmental section, Burgdorf, 25 October 2007. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  It is very difficult to assess how the shifts in the credit markets triggered by the US sub-prime mortgage market will impact on the real economy. As a result, the uncertainties with regard to the economic outlook have increased considerably. The evaluation of structured credit products, some of them very complex, is based on models. Because of the difficulties this evaluation poses, the market for such products gradually disappeared. The uncertainty as to the degree of exposure of individual banks in the structured credit market led to illiquidity in the unsecured interbank market. Central banks around the world have reacted to this unusual situation with injections of liquidity. An adequate supply of liquidity to the economy is essential for our economic system to function. A favourable aspect of the situation was the fact that the credit market turbulence occurred at a time when the global economy and the Swiss economy were both in good shape. BIS Review 121/2007  1