samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Growth in exports also entails several other benefits, such as the creation of an efficient price mechanism, inflow of new technology, employment creation, greater economies of scale, and expansion of the productive resource base of the country. In the last decade, increasing reliance on unsustainable levels of foreign borrowing was an inevitable consequence of growth which was dependent on non-tradeable domestic goods. If you go for an Page 11 of 17  inward looking growth strategy, as we did in the last 10-12 years, inevitably you run into the difficulties we now confront because you have to borrow to invest and we haven’t created the capacity to earn the foreign exchange to service that debt. The country requires a growth process which is driven by a surplus in the current account of the balance of payments. In the past, we have experienced high growth supported by unsustainable budget deficits. If you look at our growth performance, and you correlate it with the size of the budget deficit, our high-growth years are also characterized by high budget deficits. When growth is created by pumping money into the system through excessive fiscal deficits, it is just not sustainable, because it is not productive; it is essentially driven mainly by consumption. In the past, we tended to keep our interest rates low, and our exchange rate over-valued, so people borrowed and imported. After a couple of years you have balance of payment problems, and also pumping money into the system creates inflation.

At the same time, banks are required to build additional capital buffers, which further constrain their pay-out ratio. So dividend prospects are doubly affected and that explains why share prices are reacting to negative news on growth. This movement has been more pronounced for French banks which are suffering from two specific vulnerabilities, one real, one exaggerated. The real vulnerability is their dependence on dollar funding, due to the scale of their international activities, which they may have been initially too slow to address effectively. It is currently being dealt with through a combination of deleveraging and consolidation. In the meantime, in order to ease this transition, the Eurosystem, together with other central banks across the world, has decided to conduct US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of three months. A more exaggerated concern about French banks is their exposure to sovereign risk. Let me just point out some facts: total exposure of major French banks to the sovereign risk of socalled “peripheral countries” amounts to € To take an extreme – and from my view point – totally unrealistic scenario – a 50% haircut on Greece and 25% haircut on Italy and Spain would result in a 12% loss of core Tier One capital. In terms of liquidity, the Eurosystem refinancing policy provides for an unlimited provision on an extended period and the collateral held by French banks in eligible assets is much above their present needs.
Latvia  0  99.5  64.5 58.5  55.9  50 40 30 20 10  Baltics  CEE  EU28  Macedonia  Croatia  Bulgaria  European Union  Slovenia  Lithuania  Latvia  Estonia  0  SEE  Source: Eurostat. To depict more closely the state of the SMEs and the own perception of their business environment, in the next section we will focus on the results of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE survey of the EC and the ECB). The Survey itself pinpoints the concentration of SMEs in trade and services (around 70% on average, both for the EU and the region), with many of the companies not having export of goods and services in their total turnover (around half of surveyed companies). The survey data also indicate that SMEs from the EU and the region face rather similar challenges in terms of the main perceived obstacles in doing their business. Finding customers and availability of skilled labor seem to be the main issues of the SMEs from the European Union and from the region. Thus, 7-8% of the companies perceives access to financing as the most important current problem, but there are countries, Macedonia in particular, where this percentage is higher (13%), and with a similar weight compared to most of the other obstacles7.

The solid growth in general, including the inflows of foreign capital and rising investments, was a combined effect of the reform processes in these countries, and the extremely conducive global environment. Low interest rates, liquidity glut, expansion of global trade and global value chains were global features that supported investment growth in the region. Hence, the share of investment in GDP was rising prior to crisis (close to 10 p.p. in 2008 compared to 2000), reaching around 30% of GDP in 2008, well above the rule of thumb benchmark of 25%. Yet, according to the IMF (2016), given the easy pre-crisis funding conditions and low initial capital-labor ratio, “CESEE would have been expected to have much higher rates of capital accumulation than what they actually had”. One reason for this might be that the financial flows fueled consumption as well, thus precluding stronger growth of saving and investment. Chart 1: Share of investments in GDP, in % in constant terms)  Chart 2.
If we don’t address these concerns, we will not have the consensus that is necessary to achieve the many benefits of technology. What do we need to get right in data governance? Data must be protected – we must safeguard privacy, confidentiality, and security. Data must be used in a responsible, transparent, and ethical manner. We must be able to explain the results of data driven algorithms. We cannot hide behind the black box. Humans, not machines, are accountable for decisions driven by AI or data analytics. We must ensure that outcomes of data or AI driven processes are ethical, free of bias, and socially acceptable. Only then, can we create an ecosystem where data flows seamlessly in a trusted manner. MAS has been actively working with the industry to develop principles to guide the responsible use of data in financial services. We are pleased to release today a set of principles to promote Fairness, Ethics, Accountability & Transparency, or FEAT, in the use of AI and data analytics. I’m told this is the first of its kind in the world – where the regulator and industry have come together to set guidance on the responsible use of AI and data analytics. And I am sure this is a living document that will be continually updated as we learn more. Next, on the international front: we need more data connectivity, and less data localisation. This is a serious risk. Data localisation measures are on the rise around the world.

Nevertheless, the increased amounts are likely to prove particularly useful for the Confederation and the cantons at present, giving them greater latitude to support households and companies in dealing with the current crisis. Closing remarks Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to remind anyone demanding ‘more’ from the SNB that over the course of time, the SNB does actually distribute everything it can. If we do temporarily retain profits, this is not at the cost of the public sector. However, it does enable us to facilitate a more even spread of distributions to the Confederation and the cantons from 2  In February 2020, the FDF and SNB signed a supplementary agreement to the profit distribution agreement of November 2016. This supplementary agreement increased the maximum annual distribution to CHF 4 billion for the financial years 2019 and 2020. The 2016 agreement provided for an annual distribution of up to CHF 2 billion for the years 2016 to 2020. Page 6/7  year to year, while also reducing the risk of the SNB being temporarily undercapitalised. The SNB’s long-standing practice with regard to distributing profits has proved its worth. However, let me stress once again: the greatest contribution that the SNB can make for society and the economy in our country is to carry out its statutory mandate. And we will continue to do our utmost in this regard. Thank you for your attention.
François Villeroy de Galhau: Innovation and change Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Annual Exchange Conference “Innovation and change”, Paris, 19 January 2016. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, It gives me great pleasure to respond to Stephane Boujnah’s invitation and take part in this annual conference, the subject of which is key to the French economy today. Our economy, which is at the frontier of technology, must be able to innovate continuously – and thus change – in order to improve its growth prospects. As a result, business investment, which is one of the keys to innovation, must be able to find new financing. This does not mean that traditional financing through bank loans is no longer necessary, far from it. It means that funding must become more diverse in order to meet companies’ financing needs, regardless of their size, age or sector. And of course, in this area, Euronext and the entire financial community have a vital role to play. But before addressing in more detail the financial levers of business investment, I would first like to talk about the economic levers that precede the need for financing. I. In economic terms, how are France and the euro area currently faring, and how can we move things up a gear?

There is the same need therefore to make hard choices between alternative means, and the international process for making those choices is inevitably more complicated than in our national environment. To take some examples, there is substantial evidence that increasingly free world trade and increasing freedom of international capital flows are contributing to unprecedented rates of growth in the global economy as a whole and more rapidly rising living standards in almost every region of the global economy. It is certainly possible to argue even so that the free trade playing field remains tilted against poorer countries, or that it should be tilted more in their favour: distinguishing between self-interested protectionism and “fairness” or equality of competition is not wholly straightforward. But there would be a real cost to all of us, including particularly the poorer countries, if we were to be tempted to throw the baby out with the bath water and retreat behind trade barriers. 5  BIS Review 110/2000  Similarly we have recently seen all too clearly the damage that can be caused by the volatility of international capital flows - but we need to set that against the positive benefits - in terms of potential growth rates - that had previously resulted from massively greater private sector capital investment in many of the emerging markets, and which has now resumed.
Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity. 09  10  11  Source: Reuters EcoWin  Gross public debt in Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain Percentage of GDP 140  140  120  120  100  100  80  80  60  60  40  40  Portugal Ireland  20  20  Italy Spain  0  0 90  92  94  96  98  Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast  BIS Review 56/2010  00  02  04  06  08  10  Source: OECD  11  General government net lending in Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain Percentage of GDP 10  10 Portugal Ireland  5  5  Italy Spain  0  0  -5  -5  -10  -10  -15  -15 90  92  94  96  98  00  02  04  06  08  Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast  10  Source: OECD  Government bond rates of Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain, compared with those of Germany Percentage points 3.0  3.0 Portugal  2.5  2.5  Ireland Italy  2.0  2.0  Spain  1.5  1.5  1.0  1.0  0.5  0.5  0.0  0.0  -0.5  -0.5 06  07  08  09  Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.

Now, of course, it all depends on how badly you need that car, and in reality some price levels may stay elevated and some may not. Monetary policy should not respond to supply shocks which do not become generalised through their impact on inflation expectations. In more modern times, and certainly in the life of the MPC, supply shocks have tended to be temporary in terms of their impact on inflation. But if that is not likely to be the case in our assessment, we will step in and adjust policy as needed. Nothing has changed in our approach. To illustrate this approach, let me briefly summarise the announcement we made at the end of our meeting last week, drawing out the differences of view, which are very reasonable differences. The MPC emphasised that the inflation target applies at all times, with a clear focus on medium-term prospects for inflation rather than transient factors. The judgements required by this medium-term focus are particularly important and challenging at a time like this of very large shocks to the economy. For most members of the MPC, the outlook for the labour market – as I described earlier – is highly uncertain and to some degree likely to be resolved in fairly short order, and this justified a wait and see approach on policy in view of the continuing belief that higher inflation will be temporary.
Equity prices are more volatile than seems justified by the variability of corporate earnings, as least over the sample period he considered; bond yields look to be more variable than reasonable forecasts of future short-term interest rates. Economists have therefore presumed that asset markets are prone to “time-varying risk premia”. In the case of bond markets, these would take the form of variations in the so-called “term premium” – by definition the gap between yields and expected future short rates. And although the term premium has generally been positive – on average, longer-term bonds have yielded more than rolling over a sequence of short-term bills – it could also be negative at times. For example, if investors worry about growing (if small) risks of some very bad economic outcome, that would tend to depress the yield on safe assets to levels below the expected future short rate. People are prepared to pay over the odds to insure against such tail risks 4. Unfortunately, it’s hard to distinguish these risk-induced movements in bond yields from those in the true expected path of future interest rates. But there are some pieces of evidence that, to me, are at least suggestive of such effects. 2  Strictly speaking, I should limit this equivalence to unpredictable changes in asset prices. But that covers most of them. 3  The reference is Shiller (1979); see also Mankiw and Summers (1984) and Campbell (1995).

We believe there is a need for financial advisers to possess a larger body of financial and technical knowledge, that includes a deeper awareness of latest developments in the industry and opportunities available, and to be able to apply this knowledge to a client’s advantage. Other core competencies that need to be given greater emphasis include effective communication and problem solving skills. The second priority is to identify and address the barriers that are preventing qualified parties from entering the industry, and the constraints that are limiting the ability of financial advisers to recommend the best solutions to their clients. We are close to making an announcement on revised minimum entry requirements for financial advisory business. The Bank is also currently working on measures to create a more level playing field with respect to product offerings among the insurance intermediaries. The Bank and the Securities Commission will also continue to coordinate closely in facilitating the ability of financial advisers and financial planners to provide advice on a broad range of financial solutions. In this respect, further enhancements are expected to be made to regulatory processes to improve efficiency and further ease the regulatory burden on the existing players. The third priority is to improve the alignment between the interests of consumers and financial advisers. We believe how incentives are structured have an important role in shaping the quality of advice that a consumer receives.
This cooperation has also included active participation in public-private partnership initiatives, including the National Scams Response Centre. As a member of the Financial Action Taskforce or FATF, Malaysia will once again be undergoing a Mutual Evaluations Exercise in 2024 and 2025. For the uninitiated, this is an in-depth assessment of the country's measures to combat ML/TF risks and its compliance with the international standards set by the FATF. This will be the fourth time for us and the last one was done in 2014. It is my hope that the stride made in Malaysia's AML/CFT ecosystem, strong commitment of all institutions towards a highintegrity financial system, and effective cooperation between the industry and public authorities will be reflected in the eventual outcomes of the Evaluation Exercise. In particular, it is paramount for all staff of reporting institutions to maintain high professional standards, adhere to existing confidentiality requirements, and undergo adequate AML/CFT trainings. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to leave you with a line that is often quoted when speaking about integrity: "Integrity is doing the right thing even when no one is watching". While the quote may have been over-used, it has not dimmed its truth one bit. It is much easier to do the right thing under other watchful eyes, the safety barriers of procedures, or even the instruction of prescriptive rules. But oftentimes, the decisions that will matter most are what we choose to do when nobody, but our conscience is watching.

Second, globalisation has contributed to higher imbalances of income and wealth in many countries.24 Amongst economists, a belief in free trade is totemic, but while trade makes countries better off, it does not raise all boats within them. 23  For example, two-thirds of official foreign currency reserves are in US dollars, over 60% of countries use the US dollar as their anchor currency, and around half of international trade is invoiced in US dollars - far greater than the US’s 10% share of world trade. 24 The IMF finds that technological progress during the 3rd Industrial Revolution has been the biggest contributor to these increasing imbalances. See IMF (2017), Understanding the Downward Trend in Labour Income Shares, April World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3. 15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  15  Rather, the benefits from trade are unequally spread across individuals and time. Consumers get lower prices and new products, and further benefits from higher productivity over time. Some workers, however, lose their jobs and the dignity of work, or see their “factor prices equalised.” In plain English, their wages fall. Such dynamics are being felt by those at either end of the great convergence. Survey evidence shows that 70% of Chinese workers believe that trade creates jobs and increases wages, US households think the opposite, and UK public opinion is equivocal.25 The nascent fourth industrial revolution may (for a time) harden such concerns.
V.  Maintaining price stability  In concluding my remarks today, I would like to reaffirm that maintaining price stability is the SNB’s utmost priority. We equate price stability with having average annual inflation below  4  BIS Review 59/2010  2% while avoiding deflation. The reason why I am emphasising this is because the financial crisis has also sparked a debate on the appropriate level for inflation. In particular, it has been suggested that central banks should target a higher inflation level in normal times. The argument goes like this: if central bank reference rates are low, there is also little freedom for reducing interest rates, as the nominal rate cannot fall below zero. In turn – so runs the argument – a central bank’s ability to react to a severe crisis is also limited. In contrast, higher inflation would lead to higher nominal interest rates. These could serve as a buffer in the event of a major shock. Monetary policy would then have scope for larger interest rate cuts, and a reduction in deflation risks. In other words: there would be more leeway for a relaxation of monetary policy in a crisis. This argument is severely flawed. First, it is very doubtful that further interest rate cuts alone would have been enough to deal with the crisis. Second, this line of argument implies that monetary policy is ineffective once the zero lower bound has been reached.

In the worst case scenario, it is even conceivable that the funds needed to provide such support would exceed our country’s financial resources. The lion’s share of the burden from the measures taken to stabilise the Swiss financial centre was borne by the SNB. For this reason, it has been a staunch advocate of addressing and remedying the “too big to fail” issue. The SNB has always stressed the need for a political decision in this regard. In November 2009, the Federal Council appointed a commission of experts, whose mandate is to formulate possible approaches for resolving the “too big to fail” issue. The SNB is represented by its Vice President, Thomas Jordan. The commission published its interim report last week. The report proposes measures in the areas of capital, liquidity, risk diversification and organisational structure. These measures are designed, first, to be preventative, reducing the likelihood of failure by a systemically important institution. Second, they should minimise the cost to the economy as a whole, in the event that a failure nevertheless occurs. The aim is to remove the need for renewed state intervention in the event of a crisis. The report by the commission of experts represents an important milestone in the “too big to fail” debate. The SNB supports the direction proposed by the commission. It shares the commission’s view that it is necessary to establish a legal basis which will allow special requirements to be imposed on systemically important banks.