samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Figure 4 shows that the dispersion between various unsecured and secured overnight rates—another metric that could reflect the efficacy of policy pass-through—has declined and that these rates have largely converged within the upper  3  portion of the target range since the end of last year. 9 This is due, at least in part, to a large increase in the supply of Treasury bills, which supported the rise in repo rates to levels closer to unsecured rates. This also suggests that the framework continues to perform well along this dimension and perhaps is improving in effectiveness as reserve levels decline. Consistent with the broad availability of higher-yielding alternatives, ON RRP take-up remains muted, falling to a record low of $ million in early September. 10  Balance Sheet Normalization Let me turn now to the second part of normalization: the balance sheet. 11 The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet grew markedly over the past decade as a result of large-scale asset purchase programs, which were undertaken to support the economic recovery by easing financial conditions to a greater extent than could be achieved solely through reducing the federal funds rate. Starting late last year, the Federal Reserve began a program to reduce its securities holdings by reinvesting principal maturities only to the extent that they exceed gradually increasing caps. 12 This gradual and predictable approach is intended to reduce the balance sheet’s size at a measured pace while supporting good market functioning and mitigating the risk of sharp or outsized asset price reactions.

The monetary policy implementation framework continues to provide the FOMC with excellent control over overnight money market rates, and has proven to be flexible, including through the technical adjustment, in the face of new developments. Thank you for your attention. I look forward to the panel discussion. ###  29  The Federal Reserve is working on enhancements to the overnight bank funding rate (OBFR) to capture wholesale borrowing activity, which moved from offshore to onshore branches. Collection of these data began on October 1, 2018. There will be a review of the new data and an evaluation of how its inclusion will impact the OBFR before its expected addition. 30 For more information about this survey, see Senior Financial Officer Survey, August 29, 2018. 13
I would like to come now to my second question: What is the role of the euro amid the current financial market turbulence? The question makes clear that the global environment in which we operate has completely changed in the past 18 months. Global financial market turbulence and the economic downturn We are currently in an extraordinary situation. It is marked by an intensification and broadening of the global financial market turbulence – in particular since September last year – and a sharp downturn in the world economy. The tensions have increasingly spilled over from the financial sector to the real economy. Their negative effects can be felt worldwide. Since the end of 2008 virtually all economies – both of the industrialised countries and the emerging markets – have been moving in the same direction. This considerably contributes to the scale of the present downturn. This economic downturn has also affected the euro area. Foreign demand for exports from the euro area has fallen. Very low confidence and tight financing conditions have adversely affected domestic demand. On the basis of our current analysis, we see persistent weakness in economic activity in the euro area over the coming quarters. The financial market tensions have a further impact on the global and domestic economy. The economic prospects are still marked by an exceptionally high degree of uncertainty. 4  BIS Review 16/2009  Reaction of the ECB and European governments The ECB reacted quickly and flexibly to the financial market turmoil.

These efforts of the central banks and of the governments are aiming at permitting the banks to live up to their role in the economy by resuming lending to economic agents. Reasons for a medium-term economic recovery 2009 will be a very difficult year. I have already said this on various occasions. I see however at least four reasons why we can be confident that the world economy and the industrialised nations will recover: •  The vigorous reactions of central banks and governments to the extraordinary situation – not only in Europe, but worldwide – will progressively produce their effects. They may not yet have been sufficiently taken into account in the expectations of private sector participants. •  The growth potential of the emerging market economies, for example, in Asia, is considerable. Their current deceleration of growth is temporary. Many of these countries have an enormous potential to develop domestic demand. •  Technological progress is very rapid and will continue and even accelerate. It is a major source of future long term growth. •  Prices for oil and other commodities have fallen sharply since mid-2008. Their rise was an important factor in the current economic weakness. Their present low levels will be an expansionary contribution to the global economy  For these reasons it seems to be a reasonable working hypothesis that after an exceptionally difficult 2009 we will see an economic recovery in 2010.
These transactions all rely on a foreign exchange market that functions with integrity – that is, one that allows a diverse set of buyers and sellers, supported by robust infrastructure, to confidently and effectively transact at prices that reflect available market information and in a manner that conforms to acceptable standards of behavior. In my remarks today, I would like to expand on the essential role that the foreign exchange market plays and examine some of the ways the market’s structure has changed in recent years. Then, amid the backdrop of a number of recent negative developments – specifically, evidence of unethical and illegal behavior by some market participants – I will discuss the critical role that implementation of and adherence to strong global industry standards, including best practices, can play in restoring and maintaining the integrity of the foreign exchange market. In doing so, I will highlight recent and ongoing efforts to help strengthen these standards through the Financial Stability Board and collaborative efforts by major central banks and market participants working within and across jurisdictions, often through local foreign exchange committees. I will conclude by setting an expectation for all market participants in foreign exchange to help support this work in order to reinforce the integrity of, and the public’s trust in, this important market. The importance of the foreign exchange market The foreign exchange market is perhaps the largest, most globally integrated, and most active financial market in the world.

The development of a single global code for the FX market is a significant effort, but developing a code is not enough. Codes of conduct and associated best practices are an important complement to regulation. They can support the integrity and function of the market by underpinning the smooth operation of the market and instill confidence that participants will treat each other fairly. But this is not possible, or sufficient, if best practices do not evolve as the market evolves, if they are not implemented effectively, or if they are not adhered to by market participants actively engaged in the market. Development of dynamic best practices is critical, as is the market’s adherence. Recent headlines and events paint a picture of an FX market that does not always serve the public well. But you all have an opportunity to change this picture – to support the work to strengthen the market. I encourage you all to make the most of this opportunity. As Guy Debelle noted in his speech in February, the failure to act on the FXBG recommendations may prompt authorities to conclude that further regulation is the only way to strengthen the integrity of the market. 15 Similarly, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, emphasized in his recent Mansion House speech that a failure to establish effective common standards that are adhered to would likely result in more restrictive regulation. 16 Consider this message reiterated here today as well.
This is done mostly in collaboration with other financial centres and overseas authorities, including the Banque de France. Back in 2014, the HKMA and Banque de France signed a memorandum of understanding to strengthen cooperation between the two financial centres. To me, this collaboration can go beyond China opportunities to cover other new market developments, including Fintech and green finance. 7. Let me start with the opportunities in Mainland China. As you are aware, last year marked the 40th anniversary of the reform and opening-up of Mainland China. Throughout these years, Hong Kong remains as the gateway to Mainland China. Today, as Mainland China continues to open up its capital markets, we serve as a major platform for international investors to access the world’s second largest stock market and third largest bond market. Take Bond Connect as an example. It provides a convenient channel for international investors to access the Mainland’s bond market using international market practices such 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  as the nominee holding structure. Similarly, Stock Connect provides access channel for international investors to invest in the Mainland’s stock markets by engaging brokers and custodians in Hong Kong through existing structure. 8. With the smooth inclusion of A-shares into MSCI Emerging Markets Index last year, more global indices are planning to add RMB products into their constituent assets. For example, RMB bonds will be included in the Bloomberg-Barclays Global Aggregate Index starting this April and FTSE’s Global Equity Index Series will also include A-shares from this June.

2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Edward Scicluna: Central banks on the way out of the Covid-19 crisis but facing new global challenges Speech by Mr Edward Scicluna, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, at the 2022 Conference of Mediterranean Central Banks "Building resilience in uncertain times: safeguarding financial stability, encouraging investments", jointly organised by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and the Bank of Spain, Session "Central banks on the way out of the Covid-19 crisis but facing new global challenges", Istanbul, 31 October 2022. *** Fellow governors, ladies and gentlemen I would like to thank our host, Governor Kavcolu and his team, the OECD, IEMed, and the Bank of Spain for their invitation and for their warm welcome. I have come to share my views at this Seventh Annual Conference of Mediterranean Central Banks on the challenges we monetary policymakers are facing in the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, because as Mediterranean countries we have an obligation to explain our respective position and its relevance to our region. Because financial instability in any one country does not help the attractiveness of the whole region in the eyes of the investor. Let me start with what is relevant to any Central Banker wherever he or she comes from. I think that what is sharply standing out today is the sharp trade-offs confronting us central bankers. The biggest being that between containing inflation and avoiding a recession.

Increasing product market competition, particularly in the services sectors, would also facilitate the restructuring of the economy and encourage innovation. Such measures are crucial for enhancing productivity growth, which is one of the main drivers of long-term growth. All these structural reforms should be supported by the necessary improvements in the structure of the banking sector. Sound balance sheets, effective risk management and transparent, robust business models remain key to strengthening banks’ resilience to shocks and to ensuring adequate access to finance, thereby laying the foundations for sustainable growth and financial stability. We are now at your disposal for questions. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
For the financial channel, it will be mainly through a spike in risk aversion and drying up of bank credit, quite similar to 2008. Already, we have seen some retraction in the Eurozone banks’ trade finance activities in Asia, but the local and global banks have stepped in to fill the void. Financial market stresses will be felt most keenly in capital flows, currency markets, and interbank funding. There could be larger and more volatile capital flows. We must be prepared for both excessive inflows as well as outflows. This could in turn have either upward pressures or downward pressures on the Singapore Dollar. Interbank funding could tighten further. We are keeping a close watch on market liquidity conditions, especially in the availability of US Dollar funding. Finally, the impact on safety and soundness of financial institutions. Financial institutions operating in Singapore have limited direct exposure to peripheral Europe. But if the crisis spreads to core Europe, the contagion could be larger. MAS is closely monitoring banks’ lending exposures and funding profiles. Given our close links to global financial networks, we will not be unaffected. But our financial system is sound and we should be able to weather the storm. Our local banks – at the core of the financial system – have strong capital and liquidity positions. They have very good asset quality, with non-performing loans ratio at just 1.3%. We have been carrying out periodic industry-wide stress tests.

In principle, the question is whether and to what extent automatic balancing mechanisms should be invoked on the EU general fiscal stance level and be targeted at the smoothing of regional disparities with automatic income transfers from the wealthy to the less-wealthy regions - thus, in fact, compensating for the lack of the exchange rate mechanism within the single currency regime. Also in recent months the question has been raised whether or not the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact are too rigid. By way of general comment, I should say that there are sufficiently many examples of great disparities between different regions of a federal state. Regional policy is crucial also for states with high labour mobility. Ultimately, the success of regional economies depends primarily on the efficient resource management and extensive income transfers can even slow down the adjustment process. In my view it is obvious that as long as the European Union remains to be the alliance of independent member states, there will be neither need nor possibility for any additional communitisation. Exceptions could include precisely defined circumstances when an intervention on the EU level would be justified in order to ensure the uninterrupted functioning of the internal market. Harmonisation of the fiscal policy on the macro level would be automatically accompanied with the tax rate equalisation. At that, taxation policies of any given member state reflect principal choices of their internal policy and preferences of the entire society.
“Recent developments in financing and bank lending to the non-financial private sector”, Analytical Articles, Economic Bulletin, 4/2020, Banco de España. Arce, Ó., M. García-Posada, S. Mayordomo and S. Ongena (2018). Adapting lending policies in a “negative-for-long” scenario, Documentos de Trabajo, No 1832, Banco de España. Banco de España (2020a). “The role of economic policies internationally in the face of the pandemic”, Chapter 3, Annual Report 2019. —(2020b). “Review of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy strategy: main aspects and impact on the financial markets”, Box 2, “Quarterly report on the Spanish economy”, Economic Bulletin, 3/2020. Bernanke, B. S., M. T. Kiley and J. M. Roberts (2019). Monetary Policy Strategies for a LowRate Environment, AEA Papers and Proceedings, No 109, pp. 421-426. Brunnermeier, M. K., and Y. Koby (2018). The Reversal Interest Rate, NBER Working Paper 25406. Fiorentini, G., A. Galesi, G. Pérez-Quirós and E. Sentana (2018). The rise and fall of the natural interest rate, Documentos de Trabajo, No 1822, Banco de España. Galesi, A., G. Nuño and C. Thomas (2017). “The natural interest rate: concept, determinants and implications for monetary policy”, Analytical Articles, Economic Bulletin, 1/2017, Banco de España. Holston, K., T. Laubach and J. Williams (2017). “Measuring the natural rate of interest: international trends and determinants”, Journal of International Economics, No 108, pp. 5975. 19  Lane, P. (2021). “The compass of monetary policy: favourable financing conditions”, Speech at Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários. Menéndez-Pujadas, Á., and M. Mulino (2020).

Interest rates on lending have remained very low, although in the latest rounds of the Eurosystem’s Bank Lending Survey, banks have reported a slight tightening of credit standards and expected them to possibly tighten further in the coming quarters  We must also continue to monitor developments in the exchange rate with regard to their possible implications for the medium-term inflation outlook. Although the upward pressure on the euro has eased in recent weeks, the euro has gradually appreciated since mid-2020. This has led to disinflation pressures at a time when the outlook for euro area inflation was already, as previously mentioned, historically low. As result, on the ECB Governing Council we have reiterated that we will continue to closely monitor developments in the exchange rate. 10  In relation to this framework, I must once again stress the importance of maintaining a high degree of monetary accommodation so that fiscal policy can, in turn, continue to be highly supportive of the euro area economy until a solid recovery is assured. This complementary monetary and fiscal policy action, which we have been insisting on since the start of this crisis and which is proving so important to alleviate its effects, is particularly relevant for countries which had less fiscal headroom at the start of the crisis. A tightening of financing conditions in such countries may prompt a restrictive fiscal policy reaction, as we saw at times during the previous crisis, which would seriously damage the recovery.
We developed a Sandy Information Center with the best information we could find for folks impacted by Sandy – including key deadline dates along with expert legal, finance and insurance guidance. Over 2,000 have benefited from our web resources. While we are not yet back to normal in neighborhoods like Midland Beach, Oakwood Beach, New Dorp Beach and Tottenville, the situation is improving and I expect that this recovery will continue over the coming year. We are going to continue to examine where we can provide assistance in supporting this effort. One effort, for example, is to provide assistance in collecting detailed data on the areas that were impacted by the storm. From talking to some local business people late last November, we know that many residents and businesses had to wait a long time for insurance claims and small business loans, as well as to get their heat and power restored. We also know that eight public schools were closed. Unfortunately, timely statistics pertaining specifically to Staten Island’s economy are scarce, thus making it hard to accurately gauge the impact from Sandy or the strength and breadth of the ensuing recovery. So we truly value input from all of you – people on the front lines of the local economy – to assist us in gauging recent trends and developments in Staten Island’s economy. National economic conditions Turning to the national outlook, the U.S. economy remains on the slow growth track that has persisted since the recession ended in mid-2009.

Thus, I conclude that the risk that inflation could significantly exceed our 2 percent objective is quite low over the next few years, even if the economy were to strengthen considerably. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  With inflation well below its longer-run goal and high unemployment, the FOMC decided at its March meeting to maintain a “highly accommodative” policy stance: a federal funds rate in a range of 0 to 25 basis points with forward guidance based on economic thresholds. Moreover, to support a stronger economic recovery, the FOMC is purchasing long-term Treasury securities at a rate of $ billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a rate of $ billion per month, and will continue purchasing assets until it sees substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market, conditional on ongoing assessment of benefits and costs. Combined, these actions are intended to ease financial conditions and thereby help to establish a self-sustaining economic expansion. As I stated in my recent Economic Club speech, the benefits of our asset purchases – as reflected in improving financial conditions and the quickening pace of interest-sensitive spending such as that on consumer durable goods, housing, and capital goods – exceeds the costs. Furthermore, the labor market outlook has yet to show substantial improvement. Consequently, I see the current pace of asset purchases as appropriate. At some point, I expect that I will see sufficient evidence of improved economic momentum to lead me to favor gradually dialing back the pace of asset purchases.