samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This issue matters considering that, compared to our September 2019 estimates, the damaged caused by the social crisis and the Covid-19 crisis combined will add up to a loss of almost 10% of GDP by 2022 (Figure 14). This is complemented with the fact that these two crises combined have caused dismay among the economic agents, whose equity position has worsened as they have used up their slack and reserves. Thus, from September 2019 and through this year to date, companies increased their indebtedness by 16 points of GDP; the capitalization of the stock market fell by nearly 25 points of GDP; the government has used its sovereign wealth funds and issued new debt to raise it in net terms by almost 8 points of GDP, and households will have reduced their pension savings by about 10 points of GDP when the second withdrawal of funds is completed. All of this makes these agents more vulnerable to future stressful scenarios. The impact of these factors is already apparent in our economy. Our currency, for example, recovered only partially the parity and stability of before the social outbreak, reducing some of its capacity to cushion our capital market from external shocks. The long-term rates, which used to be more stable than those of comparable countries, are now more volatile, bringing home the changes in external financial conditions (Figure 15).

However, we will evaluate its possible extension and changes in access parameters to facilitate their use to respond to the needs of the economy at this stage. As always, the CBC will remain on the alert for financial stability risks, acting promptly and decisively with the instruments at its disposal whenever required. For the time being, the entry into force of the law that allowed a second withdrawal of pension savings will involve a significant liquidation of assets by the administrators of these funds. An orderly liquidation is crucial to preserve the stability of the financial markets and the efficiency of the price formation process, which is why we have established several measures. Among them are the reopening of the special programs of CC-VP and Term Deposit Purchase Program. These measures have preset caps and a limited duration, the same that were used for the first withdrawal. The macroeconomic scenario continues to show more uncertainty than usual, so projections are highly conditional on the evolution of the pandemic and its effects on the income of businesses and individuals. There are scenarios where the evolution of the national economy could deviate from our forecasts. The risk Page 5 of 19  of a significant increase in infections remains fully valid and could have important economic effects if it becomes necessary to re-impose stricter sanitary measures. In the medium term, this scenario is not as severe, given the advances in the development of a vaccine.
Since the benefits are mainly the result of structural improvements and the costs are due largely to the greater difficulty in steering inflation and economic activity, it is difficult to offset the advantages of a monetary union against its disadvantages. Whether a monetary union, on balance, creates benefits or causes costs depends on a whole range of factors. Robert A. Mundell can be summarised as follows: in order to form a so-called optimal currency area, the member countries must be structured along similar lines and exhibit a high degree of flexibility. The benefits of a monetary union consist in a reduction of transaction costs for changing money, the elimination of internal exchange rate uncertainty, tighter competition thanks to easier price comparisons, the expansion of trade within the common currency area, the prevention of competitive depreciation and speculative attacks on a currency, and growth in the liquidity of the financial markets. The most significant costs of a currency union arise from the loss of the individual countries’ independent monetary policies. The loss of monetary policy autonomy is particularly felt when the size or number of asymmetric shocks is large. Such disruptions affect the economic structure, business activity and inflation of member countries in different ways. Thus, they cannot be combated with a uniform economic policy. A controversy that has not yet completely died down is this: was the reunification of the two Germanys after 1989 a shock that significantly impaired the prospects for a successful integration of Germany into the European Monetary Union?

In this way, we ensure that SARON and the other secured short-term money market rates remain close to the now positive SNB policy rate. To absorb liquidity by way of open market operations, we will use two proven monetary policy instruments: SNB Bills and repo transactions. Participants in the Swiss franc money market are familiar with both instruments. We have used repo transactions regularly in previous years. SNB Bills are debt certificates issued by the SNB, typically with a term of up  1  Further information is available in the ‘Instruction sheet governing interest on sight deposits’. Page 1/2  Zurich, 22 September 2022 Andréa M. Maechler  News conference  to one year. We last used SNB Bills for the implementation of monetary policy in 2011 and have since conducted tests to ensure operational readiness. We expect the volume of SNB Bills issued to increase within a short period of time on the back of the weekly auctions. The new interest rates on sight deposits apply as of tomorrow. The open market operations to absorb liquidity are being conducted with immediate effect. To ensure that our monetary policy is being implemented effectively, we will subject the instruments used to regular review. Further adjustments may be made if necessary. Page 2/2
The sum of our crisis experience – as painful as it may have been at the time – has helped us to avert what would have been the greatest crisis of them all. There are three lessons from the past crises that I would like to reflect on today. First, the importance of effective financial regulation for sustainable growth. Then, the importance of credible commitment in times of great uncertainty. And lastly, the importance of proper policy alignment. The importance of financial regulation The first lesson came by way of the great financial crisis, which was already brewing in 2007, just a few months after I took office here, and unfolded in 2008. This crisis laid bare many issues, but perhaps most relevant is what it showed us about why we needed effective financial regulation. Before the crisis, some saw a trade-off between effective financial regulation and an innovative financial sector that supported growth. The belief was that keeping the financial sector reined in tightly would come at the cost of less innovation and slower growth of lending to the economy. That notion was shattered very quickly when the financial crisis plunged us into a deep recession. It became clear that the lack of regulation did not really support lending over the longer term. In fact, banks were forced to start rebuilding capital in the middle of a slump, which amplified the credit crunch facing the economy and prolonged the recovery from the crisis. Europe learnt the lesson.

Christine Lagarde: Learning the right lessons from the past Speech by Ms Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, on the occasion of the awarding of the Prix Turgot 2021, Paris, 2 June 2021. * * * It is a great pleasure to be here once again in Bercy, which brings back so many memories. I am very grateful to Jean-Claude Trichet and the Cercle Turgot for bestowing this prize on me. It is an honour to join such an illustrious group of recipients. Anne-Robert, Jacques Turgot himself said that “the whole mass of humanity … marches constantly, though slowly, toward greater perfection”. When I reflect on my career as a policymaker in Paris, Washington and Frankfurt, these words resonate with me greatly. History never moves in a straight line. Day-to-day, it can be hard to perceive any direction at all. But I do believe that, in retrospect, we can make out a clear path towards progress. After two decades working in the private sector, I have held public office throughout two decades of crises – a period when Europe has been severely put to the test. But each crisis has taught us a valuable lesson – and we have had the humility to learn. It is thanks to those past lessons that we have been able to respond to the pandemic effectively.
Looking ahead, the transition to a greener economy will entail a sharp reduction in aggregate energy dependence, from around 60% today to 10% in 2050 in a zero-emissions scenario. However, this same policy, as well as the digitalisation of the economy, will increase the EU's need to import so-called “critical raw materials”. These materials (such as rare earths, palladium or cobalt) are considered critical by the European Commission due to their economic importance, the difficulty in replacing them with other materials, the high import concentration and other supply-related risks. 5 For example, China controls about half of global rare earths mining capacity and 85% of the refining capacity. Russia is the EU’s main supplier of these raw materials (accounting for 18% of the total value of such imports in 2019). According to the European Commission, the demand for some of these critical raw materials could increase more than fivefold by 2030, which will cause the EU's external dependencies in this field to increase dramatically in the near future. A second vulnerability concerns export concentration. This is a key aspect for the European economy, which has historically maintained a strong trade surplus, and whose exports have compensated some of the recent large terms of trade loss stemming from high energy prices. In this regard, EU exports of various pharmaceutical and chemical products and some high-tech manufacturing goods are highly concentrated in the US and the UK, and are also characterised by relatively low domestic demand.

For their part, governments have become more concerned that trade and financial openness may create dependencies on third countries that increase vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. Accordingly, they have started to include geopolitical considerations in their economic decision-making, with policy initiatives that aim to limit such external vulnerabilities, for example, by encouraging the local production of strategic products such as semiconductors or by screening incoming foreign direct investment on grounds of national security. These issues are particularly important for the EU, given its high degree of trade and financial openness, which is larger than that of other geopolitical powers such as the United States or China. For example, in 2019 the share of foreign trade reached 54% of GDP in the euro area (up from 31% in 1999), which is double that of the US (26%), while the share of global value chain participation in trade is 20 percentage points higher in the euro area than in the United States. Likewise, the euro area is more financially open than the US, as measured by the stock of gross external assets and liabilities with respect to GDP. This openness has been a major advantage for Europe for many years and one of the main reasons for its prosperity. This openness has allowed the EU to benefit from lower import prices, larger export opportunities, more foreign competition, technology diffusion and, ultimately, productivity gains. But it has also become an element of vulnerability in a more volatile global geopolitical environment. This is currently evident in the EU's external energy dependence.
Then, in September 2011, the FOMC announced that repayments from these securities would instead be reinvested in agency MBS to help support conditions in mortgage markets.29 The FOMC then maintained reinvestments, including Treasury rollovers, until commencing balance sheet normalization last month.30 Keeping the Fed’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels helped to maintain accommodative financial conditions as economic conditions strengthened. This is because, in addition to the acquisition of securities through asset purchases, the period over which the central bank intends to hold its securities helps to shape market participants’ expectations about the size and duration of assets available to the public. Extending the holding period through reinvestments prolongs this so-called stock effect. The 2010 episode when the Fed was not reinvesting agency-related principal payments demonstrated both term premium effects that might have been expected to be associated with a reduction in the Fed’s securities holdings and the risks associated with an unexpected increase in the publicly-held stock of agency MBS. As we normalize the size of the balance sheet, maintaining redemption caps throughout the process (and continuing to reinvest any principal payments received in excess of those caps) provides an insurance mechanism that limits the amount of variation in the pace at which securities, particularly mortgages, will flow back into private hands. Lesson 5: Credible communications influence the effectiveness of asset purchase programs As a general matter, monetary policy transmits more smoothly when market participants are able to understand and anticipate central bank actions.

First, balance sheet policies can serve as a signaling device that strengthens forward guidance and reduces expectations for the path of short-term interest rates. Putting actions behind its words—either through new asset purchases or by maintaining reinvestments—helps the central bank to establish a credible commitment to maintaining monetary easing.33 Second, balance sheet actions transmit through a portfolio balance channel, which—through the stock effect I described earlier—reduces term and risk premiums embedded in bond yields by reducing the supply of long-term bonds in the market. Many studies conclude that this channel is likely the dominant one.
It is good business to say “no” to the customer who wants help in evading taxes. And it is good business not to corrupt government officials. Companies with a reputation for a sound culture of compliance tend to do well at harmonizing their organizational value system and their compliance rules. If you look at those companies, you see success. Thanks for listening. 1  E. Norman Veasey and Christine DiGuglielmo, Indispensable Counsel: The Chief Legal Officer in the New Reality (Oxford Univ. Press 2012). 2  http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/bnp-paribas-to-plead-guilty-sudan-sanctions-108438.html. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

Philipp M Hildebrand: Liquidity - a challenge for banks Public lecture by Dr Philipp M Hildebrand, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Swiss National Bank Conference “Liquidity - a challenge for banks”, Zurich, 11 January 2005. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The resilience of the international financial system has been strengthened in recent years thanks to the extensive efforts of financial institutions, central banks and regulatory bodies. Nonetheless, given the steadily increasing volume of transactions in global financial markets, securing liquidity remains a fundamental task for banks. During times of crises, liquidity can suddenly contract or dry up altogether. The challenge for banks is to set up liquidity planning procedures to secure reliable liquidity sources for exceptional circumstances. Liquidity risks must be correctly assessed and assets must be secured to serve as collateral when necessary. In Switzerland, the repo market is the forward-looking liquidity management instrument for the banks. It minimises counterparty risk in lending and provides access to a crisis-resistant, collateralised interbank market. The Swiss National Bank is itself a participant in the repo market. It uses the repo platform to implement monetary policy and to provide for liquidity in both normal and exceptional circumstances. BIS Review 1/2005  1
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Fostering leadership role in Islamic finance Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the launching of Hong Leong Islamic Bank Berhad - “Fostering Leadership Role in Islamic Finance”, Kuala Lumpur, 19 July 2005. *  *  *  Bismillahirrahmanirrahim Y.Bhg. Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan, Chairman of Hong Leong Bank and Hong Leong Islamic Bank Encik Daud Abdullah, Managing Director, Hong Leong Islamic Bank Ladies and Gentlemen, It is my pleasure to be here today to commemorate the official launch of "Hong Leong Islamic Bank Berhad". This establishment of the Islamic subsidiary represents the on-going institutional transformation in the Islamic banking system in our Islamic financial system. The underlying philosophy for the incorporation of an Islamic subsidiary is for the further strengthening the institutional structure for Islamic banking business operations. The emergence of Hong Leong Islamic Bank in the Islamic financial landscape will further increase the diversity of players in the Islamic financial system and enhance its potential to contribute to the further development of our Islamic financial services industry. Ladies and Gentlemen, Today, the Islamic financial services industry in Malaysia has emerged as a viable and competitive component of the financial system that contributes towards enhancing wealth creation and the nation's economic development. The advancement and progress that have been achieved thus far have opened new frontiers for the Islamic financial services industry.

This dialogue will now be held annually to serve as a platform for cooperation among the Shariah scholars to promote greater understanding on emerging developments across the world in the area of Islamic finance. This is to promote a greater understanding on the approaches taken by different jurisdictions in their Shariah interpretations. To support the Shariah scholars' activities especially in the areas of research and capacity building, Bank Negara Malaysia has also allocated a RM200 million endowment fund to meet the financing requirements of the Shariah Scholars' Dialogue research activities and the provision of scholarships. It is hoped that this will contribute towards greater understanding in the process of harmonizing the international implementation of Shariah in Islamic finance. These initiatives have contributed to the success in the creation of a robust Islamic financial environment. It is further supported by the requisite financial infrastructure that includes the financial markets and that is reinforced further by a comprehensive regulatory, prudential, legal and accounting  1/2  framework. These elements have provided an enabling environment that increases the potential for Malaysia to evolve as an Islamic financial centre. These measures, however, need to be reinforced by efforts by the Islamic financial institutions to take on a more active role in promoting Islamic finance. Indeed, the rapid progress of Islamic banking over the last two decades would not have been possible without the pioneering efforts of the Islamic financial institutions in building up a successful and vibrant industry.
Notable innovations that came under Mr. Masud’s time include the commissioning of the bank’s Branch Queue Management System at its Mutaba and Kafue House branches and Northend ATM Lobby, as well as the launch of Premier Banking. Barclays Bank Zambia Plc may have not pioneered all of these innovations, but they have provided reasonable competition to their colleagues which we at Bank of Zambia believe will be of benefit to the Zambian financial sector in the medium to long-term. It is my expectation that Barclays Bank Zambia PLC will continued to contest the market in a meaningful and beneficial way. Let me also acknowledge the contribution made by Barclays Bank Zambia Plc under Mr. Masud through the bank’s partnering with the corporate world to cosponsor the first ever Euromoney Investors’ Conference in Zambia. In addition, it is worth mentioning that BAZ, under the chairmanship of Barclays Bank Zambia Plc and Mr. Masud, helped initiate the beautification of Cairo Road by adopting the maintenance of its wonderful gardens. The positive change to our immediate surroundings particularly around the Bank Square is there for all to see. Further, Barclays Bank Zambia has continued to work closely with Junior Achievement Zambia where I serve on the Board. The bank has been providing office space as well as hosting the meetings of Junior Achievement at its premises. As a matter of fact, on 22 February, 2009, the Junior Achievement Worldwide/Barclays Bank partnership was launched in Dubai.

I urge you to be part of the conversation and engage in the dialogue. I pray that the event will be of great benefit to all participants. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
However, this favourable set of circumstances has co-existed until recently with numerous signs of over-abundant monetary and market liquidity: robust money and credit growth; high transaction volumes and small bid-ask spreads; low credit spreads and term premia; and reduced volatility across virtually every asset class. Those vulnerabilities have not gone unnoticed by central banks, as testified by past analyses in the ECB Financial Stability Review publication. Although market sentiment had proved extraordinarily resilient to events which in the past would have triggered sharp corrections (including the shift to less accommodative monetary policies in the major economies), the analyses identified the risk that the prolonged period of low rates might have created incentives for excessive risk taking and that a sudden tightening might leave, using Rajan’s words 6 , “a number of participants stranded on a limb of illiquidity”. In my view, all of this warns against excessive focus on a fixed, excessively short-term time horizon for inflation targets. The Eurosystem’s monetary policy strategy abstains from specifying a fixed time horizon for policy. Through its diversified approach, it also accords due importance to assessing medium- to long-term risks to price stability. It is therefore well equipped to deal with the perils of short-termism, the temptations of excessive fine-tuning and the risks of asymmetric responses during upswings and downturns.

8  BIS Review 132/2007