However, the ability of Asian banks to continue to take up the slack could be constrained by the already high loan-to-deposit ratio and limited access to US dollar funding. More importantly, it is doubtful whether these non-European banks would have the appetite to take up long-term project and infrastructure financing, which is a specialised business traditionally dominated by the European banks. Any cutback in infrastructure financing could have serious repercussions for developing Asia, which has a strong need to build and upgrade infrastructure networks to promote sustainable growth, create employment opportunities and boost competitiveness. ADB estimates that Asia requires as much as $ trillion in overall infrastructure investment between 2010 and 2020, with an average of $ billion in annual infrastructure spending. It is therefore vital to further develop the capital markets in Asia, in particular the local-currency bond markets, to effectively channel the region’s vast savings to meet its huge demand for infrastructure financing. Asian governments have been making efforts to develop the bond markets. At the national level, initiatives such as consolidation of issuance in a few benchmark maturities and development of interdealer markets have helped increase liquidity and improve reliability of yield curves in a number of jurisdictions. Meanwhile, collaborative efforts are being made in regional forums. A notable example is ASEAN+3’s Asian Bond Markets Initiative with the strong support from ADB. The Initiative has been looking into both demand and supply side issues pertinent to the development of the bond markets.

The time horizon typically extends to two years, or a more ambiguous definition as “medium term.” As long as medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored, the monetary policy helps to reduce the volatility of other variables. In addition, a FIT regime also requires a flexible exchange rate, so monetary policy can be conducted independently. However, a proper FIT should help to stabilize the currency as long as monetary policy should move leaning against the wind. For example, a persistent depreciation of the currency, other things equal, should increase the inflation forecast, although much more moderately than in rigid exchange rate systems. This effect should call for a tightening of monetary conditions, reducing pressures against the currency. Many times it has been argued, especially in non-professional discussions, that inflation targets ignore output fluctuations. As I just argued, this is a mistake. Flexible inflation targets take into account activity and employment, and this is implicit in the choice of the time horizon. Moreover, a credible inflation target is efficient in terms of minimizing the tradeoff between output and inflation fluctuations, and also helps to reduce real exchange rate volatility. Indeed, a flexible inflation targeting regime can maximize welfare and perform much better than an exchange rate or monetary target. What variables should a central bank consider when setting the interest rate? In the regime I just described, the answer to this question is pretty simple: anything affecting inflation over a two-year horizon.