samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Mugur Isărescu: In support of central bank independence Address by Mr Mugur Isărescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the Conference on “The role of a central bank in modernising society – challenges in emerging economies”, organised by the National Bank of Moldova, Bucharest, 7 April 2021. * * * Dear Governor Armașu, Distinguished guests, adies and gentlemen, Good morning, Let me start by congratulating the National Bank of Moldova on the initiative of holding this conference. I believe that discussions on the proposed topic are welcome at the current juncture, when light needs to be shed both on the measures to rescue the economies hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and on central banks’ mission. The question about what a central bank can and cannot do is always on the agenda. Governments and central banks throughout the world have promptly stepped in to address the fallout from the pandemic by means of social, economic, fiscal and monetary policies. Such comprehensive and unprecedented support has proven that, in situations like this, the concerted action of the authorities – particularly monetary and fiscal ones – is critical to safeguarding the smooth functioning of markets, of economic and social mechanisms. The topic of this roundtable, The role of a central bank in modernising society – challenges in emerging economies, is however more comprehensive than the response to the challenges of the unprecedented medical crisis we are currently facing.

that background, the NBR Board decided to successively cut the monetary policy rate, to narrow the symmetrical corridor defined by interest rates on standing facilities around the policy rate, to provide liquidity to credit institutions via repo transactions (repurchase transactions in government securities) for ensuring the smooth functioning of money market and of other financial market segments, to lower the minimum reserve requirement ratio on foreign currencydenominated liabilities of credit institutions, as well as to purchase leu-denominated government securities on the secondary market with a view to consolidating structural liquidity in the banking system that should contribute to the smooth financing of real economy and the public sector. As regards the purchase of leu-denominated government securities on the secondary market, a measure widely resorted to by central banks in the current context, I would like to stress that the NBR decided to launch secondary market purchases only after its position on the market shifted from net debtor to net creditor in relation to commercial banks. From this perspective, in full compliance with the NBR Statute, the measure was carried out with a view to ensuring an adequate level of financial system liquidity and I do not think it qualifies as a quantitative easing measure per se. Finally, the NBR took operational measures to ensure the continuity and smooth functioning of payment and settlement systems underlying payments in domestic currency, as well as to ensure the necessary cash flows for banks to conduct all operations.
Timothy F Geithner: The economic dynamics of global integration Remarks by Mr Timothy F Geithner, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Forum on Global Leadership: US Competitiveness in a Globally Integrated Economy, Washington DC, 25 July 2007. *  *  *  We are meeting at a time of relatively favorable U.S. economic performance, but also of growing concern about our relative position in the world and our longer-term economic prospects at home. On a wide range of measures, the American economy and American business are performing well. We are in the fifth year of expansion in the United States and in the midst of the strongest global economic expansion in more than three decades. Corporate profits as a share of GDP are close to the highest level in four decades. Corporate balance sheets are healthy. The six-month trailing bond default rate has stayed near zero this year, and the delinquency rate on commercial and industrial loans at banks remains extremely low. We have seen a substantial acceleration in trend productivity growth over the past decade. And although productivity gains have slowed recently, as they typically do as expansions mature, U.S. companies remain at the forefront of changes in science and technology—and in the application of those innovations to business processes across a range of industries. Overall, the U.S. economy continues to display remarkable resilience and flexibility, despite a range of adverse shocks.

Any one who travels outside the United States today returns with an appreciation about how rapidly public infrastructure is improving in many parts of the world, relative to what is evident in many parts of the United States. As global markets become more integrated and companies and capital can move more freely across borders, policymakers will face new challenges in the design of regulations. They will have to look more carefully at the balance of benefits and costs, when companies have more choice about where to invest. They will have to find ways for regulations to evolve more quickly in response to developments in markets. They will have to explore ways to cooperate more closely with other governments, where national approaches alone cannot be effective. We need to get used to a world in which we will see, in many areas, less willingness to adopt a U.S. model or to defer to a U.S. view on the appropriate global standard. You can see some of these dynamics in the financial arena, and concern about the erosion in the relative position of the U.S. financial system. Financial markets outside the United States are now deeper and more liquid than they used to be, making it easier for companies to raise capital domestically at reasonable cost. These financial markets are at an earlier stage in the process of capital market development, and they will therefore experience rapid growth in securitization and the role of derivatives.
For example, one of the alternative scenarios in the new Monetary Bulletin assumes a considerable delay in the construction of the Helguvík aluminium smelter and related power facilities, with the bulk of the development taking place in 2012. Economic recovery is delayed, and the contraction in GDP will be 4% in 2010, instead of just under 2½%. •  Inflation has been higher than forecast in the recent term, as a result of a weaker króna and a slightly smaller output slack than previously projected. •  Inflation will subside quickly in 2010, however, and underlying inflation will be at or near target in the latter half of the year. As regards the current economic situation, the outlook I have described here, and indicators that private sector balance sheets are somewhat less exposed to exchange rate risk than previously thought, the Monetary Policy Committee decided to make changes in Central Bank interest rates that entail an unchanged or slightly more relaxed monetary policy stance. The main change, however, involves adapting the Central Bank interest corridor to the effective level of monetary restraint, which is currently determined primarily by interest on the Bank’s current accounts and certificates of deposit. If the króna remains stable or appreciates, and if inflation falls as forecast, then the preconditions for further monetary easing should soon be in place. Available forecasts assume that the Icelandic economy will recover in the next few years.

These uncertainties and complexities, of course, are the reason for monetary policy committees and heavily staffed central banks. If monetary policy is complex under normal circumstances, the complexity is multiplied in a financial crisis, especially a crisis as deep as the one that Iceland has been going through. Some of the markets that are important for monetary policy transmission stopped functioning to a substantial degree. Financial institutions became impaired, and they responded differently to the Central Bank’s monetary policy instruments than they did before the crisis. The relationship with the rest of the world changed. The link between exchange rates and interest rates weakened. And expectations became seriously unstuck. Matters were further complicated because we had to change the rules of the game in response to the crisis; for example, by imposing capital controls. It is important to remember this when evaluating monetary policy in Iceland under the current circumstances. At present, the monetary policy framework is defined by the economic programme agreed between the Icelandic Government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The other key elements of the programme are the medium-term fiscal sustainability plan and the financial market restructuring plan. According to the programme, the most important task of monetary policy is to promote exchange rate stability. One reason for this is the currency crisis that accompanied the financial crisis, pushing the exchange rate far below levels previously thought possible, let alone desirable. This currency collapse fuelled inflation, of course, and amplified the debt crisis faced by households and businesses.
By way of comparison, energy expenditure represents around 7% of the budget of higher-income households and the increase would be proportionally lower. 2  A firm is understood to be under high financial pressure when its financial expenditure exceeds the sum of its gross operating profit and financial revenue. 3  As regards the effect of the surge in interest rates, an increase of 300 bp, in line with that observed to date, would generate a 3.9% rise in the proportion of households with a high financial burden3 (to 13.8% of the population). Special attention should be paid to the residential real estate market, which is closely related to households’ situation, where some exuberance has been observed in recent quarters. Specifically, house purchases posted growth rates exceeding 20% in 2022 H1 and new lending for house purchase rose by 15%. Also, the rate of change in house prices accelerated to 8%, confirming the degree of price overvaluation that we estimated in previous quarters. However, counter to the argument that there is exuberance in the real estate market, loans to the construction and real estate sectors continue to decline, the percentage of GDP represented by the stock of lending to households for house purchase stands at 39.7% (21.3 pp less than at end-2010) and mortgage lending conditions in the wake of the global financial crisis remain at prudent levels, with warning signals only observed in the interest rate spreads on loans granted at a fixed rate, which stood at record-low levels.

Mohamed S Fofana: Bank of Sierra Leone Charity Trust Fund Keynote address by Mr Mohamed S Fofana, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Sierra Leone, at the Scholarship Award Ceremony of the Bank of Sierra Leone Charity Trust Fund, Freetown, 25 January 2008. *  *  *  Mr Chairman Members of the Board of Trustees of the Bank of Sierra Leone Charity Trust Fund Board of Directors and Management of the Bank of Sierra Leone Officials of the Ministry of Education Heads of Commercial Banks and other Financial Institutions Members of the Fourth Estate Distinguished Guests, including the Awardees Students and pupils It is my honour and privilege to warmly welcome you all to the Scholarship Award Ceremony of the Bank of Sierra Leone Charity Trust Fund. The idea of a Charity Trust Fund was conceived by the Bank of Sierra Leone in the wake of the devastation caused by the decade old civil conflict in every sector of our society, the education sector, being key. We were convinced that the future for a better Sierra Leone and a decisive turnaround in the state of the economy, lie largely in education taking its rightful place in the development plan. As the nation’s Central Bank, we have a pivotal role to play in the development aspirations of the country. That is why as a corporate body, we have recognised our responsibility in the discharge of our duties to honour our corporate social responsibility.
Notes: For methodology see Favara, G, Gilchrist, S, Lewis, K F, Zakrajsek, E (2016) Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium, FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. To assess whether recent global developments represent a soft patch or herald renewed stagnation, it is helpful to consider the position of the global economy with respect to three interrelated cycles: the business cycle, the financial cycle and the cycle of globalisation. In each cycle, imbalances can build that hasten their demise, so I will focus on a few of the most important imbalances to assess global prospects. The Business Cycle The business cycle tracks fluctuations in demand about the supply potential of the economy. In the expansion phase, growth in output exceeds that of the economy’s supply capacity. As a result, costs rise more quickly as companies use resources more intensively, putting upward pressure on inflation. When output growth falls below potential, the opposite occurs. Business cycles have historically lasted up to eight years on average across advanced economies.5 Recent experience suggests the expansionary phase is getting longer, and the downturn shorter, partly because of the greater credibility of monetary policy.6  5  In the UK and US, the average duration has been 5 ½ years, based respectively on Hills et al (2010) and the National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle dating committee (http://www.nber.org/cycles.html). 6 See, for example, Miles, D, Panizza,U, Reis, R and Ubide, A (2017) ‘And Yet It Moves.

5 “Sul tempo della ratifica della CED” 1 March 1954 in Einaudi, Lo scrittorio del Presidente (1948–1955), Giulio  Einaudi Editore, Torino, 1956. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches
13  Figure 3 Consumption  Gross fixed capital formation  (real annual change, percent)  (real annual change, percent)  8  16 20 Durable (right axis)  6  Private  4 2  12 15 8  Non-durable  40 30  GFCF  5  Machinery & 20 equipment (right axis) 10  0  0  -5  -10  10  4  0  0  -2  -4 -10  -4  Construction & works  -8 -15 12  13  14  15  16  17  12  13  14  15  16  -20 -30  17  Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 4 Employment by category  Salaries (*)  (annual change, percent)  14  (annual change, percent)  Self employed  Salaried  7  14  9  7  6  0  3  9  Nominal Labor cost  6  Nominal IREM+  Total 0  Real Labor cost  3  Real IREM+ -7  -7 11  12  13  14  15  16  17  0  0 11  12  13  14  15  16  17  (*) Series spliced with base year 2016=100. + Compensations index. Source: National Statistics Institute.

Lim Hng Kiang: Singapore’s key role in Asia Opening remarks by Mr Lim Hng Kiang, Minister for Trade and Industry and Deputy Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the 8th Annual Citi Asia Pacific Investor Conference 2011, Singapore, 16 February 2011. *  *  *  Distinguished guests, Ladies and gentlemen, 1. Good morning and a very warm welcome to everyone here today. It is my pleasure to join you here at the 8th Citi Asia Pacific Investor Conference. 2. This conference is taking place at a time when the global economic recovery is picking up pace. Against this backdrop, there will be many opportunities to be explored. I am confident that this conference will provide an excellent platform for participants to share ideas and build networks. 3. The world’s economic landscape has been re-shaped since the recent global financial crisis. The recent crisis was said to be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Today, the advanced economies which were at the epicenter of the crisis still face headwinds in their recovery. In the United States, economic recovery remains fragile after two rounds of quantitative easing measures. In the Euro-zone, concerns over sovereign debts have yet to subside. There are still uncertainties in the horizon for these advanced economies. 4. This time, Asia is at the forefront of the global recovery. Asia’s resilience, built up over the years since the Asian Financial Crisis, has enabled us to weather this crisis better.
External institutions like the IMF and the World Bank are also important, providing advice and applying pressure to do what is painful but necessary. This means that IMF and World Bank loans and assistance have to come with strict conditionality. But the line between essential conditionality and excessive intervention is a fine one. In Indonesia, the IMF pushed the Suharto government hard, not just to deal with the immediate crisis, but to implement sweeping structural reforms. President Suharto interpreted this as a threat to his own position, and treated the IMF as an opponent rather than an ally. This contributed to a collapse of confidence, political turbulence, and finally Suharto’s resignation in May 1998. Whether or not the IMF intended this outcome, it helped to precipitate a decisive and momentous change in Indonesia, the consequences of which are still unfolding. Singapore’s approach Let me now turn to Singapore’s experience in navigating through the crisis and preparing itself to meet the challenges of globalisation, especially in the financial sector. Singapore is not entirely typical of the region. We are a small, open economy, about half the size of the Swiss economy, and heavily reliant on foreign trade. We are also a financial centre in Asia, and therefore highly exposed to disturbances in the international financial system. So it is not surprising that Singapore was affected by the Asian crisis. Our GDP growth plunged from 8.4% in 1997 to 0.4% in 1998. Retrenchments went up sharply. Our stock market fell, in line with regional markets.

Perhaps we should not be too surprised that this utterance was greeted by the financial commentariat with less than delirious excitement. There was, however, an outbreak of delirium within the PRA – which I can assure you is an exceedingly rare event, in part due to the dour leadership style I try to affect. The reason for this was the government’s view that “the most effective way to [implement these regulations] is to delegate responsibility for the implementation of firm requirements to the Regulators, subject to an enhanced accountability framework. This means that the vast majority of the updated banking regime will be implemented in PRA rules.”  In short, for implementing this set of Basel rules the government proposes to move back to a more British style of regulation, with the rules made by regulators rather than set out in law. This is quite different from the EU approach, where a huge volume of detail is locked down in law because that is the only practicable way to ensure that 27 countries do the same thing. Absent that imperative, it makes much more sense to have these details in regulators’ rules, as most other countries do, so that we can keep pace with developments in financial markets and adapt the rules as needed – subject, of course, to us being fully accountable to parliament for our actions. Now this may sound rather boring. Indeed, to everyone apart from me and the PRA policy team it is rather boring!
•  A common sight in Singapore stores is the array of multiple point-of-sale terminals cluttering up cashiers’ counters. This is confusing for customers and unproductive for counter staff. The ABS has tapped on the payments industry to develop a unified point-of-sale terminal or UPOS, which can accept all major card brands, including those that are contactless or embedded in smartphones. UPOS terminals are already being rolled out. •  About 1,000 of them have been deployed at convenience stores such as 7-Eleven and other retailers. •  Another 10,000 are expected to follow over the next two years. •  Large supermarket chains, such as Cold Storage, FairPrice, and Sheng Shiong are also piloting and gradually deploying these UPOS terminals. Online payment of bills – seamless payments and collections Payment of bills in Singapore needs to be made less cumbersome. The future should be one where we can securely and seamlessly pay our bills online, without having to: •  fill in our card details for the umpteenth time; or  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  •  fill out lengthy paper-based GIRO forms to authorise standing payment instructions which take weeks to be approved.

Our vision is to create a bill payment experience where consumers and businesses can: •  electronically apply for GIRO bill payments;  •  seamlessly pay bills via a “request for payment” function that leverages off FAST fund transfers without needing to bank with the same bank as the biller; and  •  manage their standing payment instructions online or on their mobile phones. MAS is working with the banks and the payments industry to create seamless bill payments and collections. Mobile payments for public transport – account-based ticketing The way we pay for public transport is also due for a refresh. The Land Transport Authority has recently announced that by the end of this year, it will be conducting a pilot for its Account-Based Ticketing System. •  This system will allow commuters to use their existing contactless credit and debit cards to pay for train and bus rides. •  No longer will users have to queue to top-up their stored value transit cards. •  Users will even be able to use their mobile wallets to pay for public transport. An Account-Based Ticketing System will bring Singapore in line with other cities with worldclass public transport payment infrastructure such as London. Pervasive digitisation – maximising productivity gains from e-payments The fourth strategy is to help businesses to digitise their processes and integrate them with electronic payments solutions, so as to maximise productivity and efficiency gains.
However, it is too early to draw any far-reaching conclusions, as it is a normal cyclical phenomenon for matching to become impaired during the recovery from a recession (see Figure 13). Another risk that I have already mentioned is that the high level of CPI inflation may be influencing inflation and wage expectations. Even if underlying CPIF inflation is low, the CPI is increasing rapidly as a result of interest rate increases. The forecast for CPI inflation is close to 3 per cent over the next three years, and will probably continue to be high for a couple more years. There is thus a risk that the high level of CPI inflation will push up inflation and wage expectations. Wage expectations are closely linked to inflation expectations, which, in turn, are largely determined by the inflation outcome – and wage expectations have increased recently (see Figure 14).4 It is important to emphasise that the high level of CPI inflation is a temporary effect. This is a delayed consequence of the low level of the repo rate during the crisis. When we first lowered the repo rate sharply, CPI inflation was negative for at least a year. Over the last year, the repo rate has successively been raised, which is instead contributing towards increasing CPI inflation. A better measure of inflationary pressures at present is provided by CPIF inflation.

Despite all these achievements, we must admit that there is no room for complacency. We must continue to establish new grounds and set new thresholds for our organisations towards greater success. In this context, I am pleased to inform that the Bank will be forming a Steering Committee made up of representatives from both industry and academia to undertake an indepth review of the strategic positioning of these important organisations. It is as part of our efforts to re-energise and reinvent the Islamic finance talent development landscape. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Conclusion The collective efforts of everyone here today will determine the path of Islamic finance moving forward. A simple yet meaningful event to witness the launching of the Educator’s Manual today will be an important learning tool for many of our future students. I wish to record again our sincere thanks for the contribution and commitment of many people, particularly from the panel of authors and members of academia and wish everyone continuous success for the upcoming series of the future manuals. Dengan lafaz Bismillahirrahmanirrahim, saya melancarkan Educator's Manual on Shariah Standard Murabahah. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5