samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
4  BIS Review 77/2009  Observed inflation June 2009 2006 Q1  Inflation  2007 Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1  2008 Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1  2009 Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1  Q2  Q3  2006  2007  2008  1.1  0.7  2.5  Q4  1.23 1.33 1.22 0.46 0.09 0.52 0.63 1.68 2.50 2.70 3.00 1.60 0.00  Inflation forecast of March 2009 with Libor at 0.25% and of June 2009 with Libor at 0.25% 2009 Q1  Forecast March 2009, Libor at 0.25% Forecast June 2009, Libor at 0.25%  BIS Review 77/2009  2010 Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1  2011 Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1  2012 Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1  0.10 -0.86 -0.98 -0.43 0.09 0.19 0.13 0.01 -0.05 -0.04 0.10 0.25  -0.74 -0.83 -0.28 0.55 0.50 0.40 0.26 0.16 0.17 0.31 0.46 0.65  Q2  Q3  2009  2010  2011  -0.5  0.1  0.1  -0.5  0.4  0.3  Q4  5

Inclusive communications  Diversity also means engaging with all our stakeholders, internal and external, and being aware of the many ways in which the economic situation affects different people. Active engagement between Bank officials and a range of expert and non-expert stakeholders across the UK has always been important, but it is taking on new prominence in the information age. Our agents and Bank officials meet thousands of business contacts across the UK each year to take the temperature of the UK economy. Our new Open Forum and Future Forum events do this on a large scale by bringing together thousands of people from the community to discuss the economy, the financial system and the Bank’s role in promoting the good of the people of the United Kingdom. We listen to the views and concerns of local business leaders, technology developers, representatives from the voluntary and education sectors, unions and the wider public and explore how the Bank can maintain stability and reduce uncertainty. The 2015 Open Forum event attracted 10,000 webpage views, 11,000 playbacks of our YouTube content and 3,000 tweets, while our 2016 Future Forum event saw almost 140,000 twitter impressions. In reality, we can’t always be there face to face. And this requires more tailored content. Deploying social media, including Facebook and YouTube, delivers our messages directly to a broader audience. New digital products, such as KnowledgeBank, use accessible language and engaging visuals to help us tell a story about what the Bank does.
The authorities carry a particular responsibility for monitoring financial stability and ensuring that the rules of the game are followed. The alternative to open securities funding is bank credit. This type of financing is traditionally based on a close relationship between banks and borrowers. Banks gain access to extensive information concerning the borrower and often exert influence over business decisions. This type of arrangement has long been preferred in many European countries as it was very difficult to obtain adequate information about individual companies and time-consuming to analyse the information that was available. This situation has changed with the advent of new information technology. Financial markets are now more effective in terms of channelling capital to investments that yield the highest returns. Germany is the country in Europe where banks and borrowers have been the most dependent on each other. In addition to providing loans, banks have large shareholdings in companies and big companies have a large stake in private banks. The tax system has locked in this cross-ownership. Owners have had to pay about 50% in taxes on capital gains on share transactions. The German government has announced that this tax will be eliminated from 2001. This is expected to prompt a restructuring, first in the ownership of German banks and enterprises and subsequently in production. The business sector is dependent on both a smoothly functioning securities market and banks with a close relationship to borrowers. Small and medium-sized enterprises are particularly dependent on the expertise and guidance offered by banks.

From the mid-1800s an increasing number of countries chose to link the value of money to gold. The central banks were under the obligation to convert their currency at a fixed rate into gold on demand. At the same time, there were no import or export restrictions on gold. This gradually resulted in the establishment of an international fixed exchange rate system based on a gold standard. Chart 1  1  BIS Review 14/2000  Norway switched from the silver standard to the gold standard in 1874. The krone was introduced as a currency unit and we formed a monetary union with Sweden and Denmark. The gold standard and the monetary union were successful. The world economy and the Norwegian economy were expanding. Price levels were stable. In the 1900s periods of nominal stability, i.e. price and exchange rate stability, have also coincided with periods of steady and solid economic growth. Chart 2  The experience of the last century shows that consumer price inflation is ultimately associated with high growth in the money supply. However, the causal relationship between money supply and inflation may be unclear. Norway has experienced four episodes of high inflation in the last century: during and after the two world wars and the Korean War, and a 15-year period from the first half of the 1970s to the second half of the 1980s. During the First World War inflation accelerated sharply. The British war effort was partly financed by printing money. Price inflation accelerated in most countries, also in Norway.
In addition to regulators of the country in which the CCP is headquartered, these include foreign regulators. These regulators may be interested parties for many reasons. For example, their currencies may be used in settling the obligations of the CCP, they may have counterparties to the CCP that are headquartered or do significant amounts of business in their country, or they may have FMIs that are linked to the CCP. I want to emphasize that effective cooperative oversight is essential. Otherwise, the risk is that the system will become overly fragmented, with a proliferation of national CCPs. In this case, many of the risk-reducing benefits from CCPs could be lost or severely attenuated. That is because fewer offsetting positions would likely be cleared through any particular CCP and this would reduce the scope for reducing large gross exposures into much smaller net positions. The second safeguard is to ensure fair, open and safe access to global FMIs around the world. It is important, for example, that global CCPs have rules that are not exclusionary or that unnecessarily entrench the position of whatever dealer, firm, or FMI is currently dominant in the market. The third safeguard is to establish rules to ensure that, if a major market participant were to fail, a CCP can liquefy its collateral quickly so that it can meet its obligations in a timely way. But this also needs to be done in a way that would not disrupt financial markets or the CCP’s participants.

To ensure that this happens, CPSS and IOSCO are also developing disclosure and assessment regimes. The purpose is to facilitate a consistent set of disclosures by the different FMIs and a consistent set of assessment methodologies that can be used by the relevant international institutions, namely the International Money Fund and the World Bank, and by the relevant national authorities of the FMIs domiciled in their jurisdictions. When the Principles are published next month, CPSS and IOSCO will also issue a disclosure regime proposal and an assessment regime proposal. These will be put forward for a 60-day consultation period to give the market participants, FMIs, and regulators an opportunity to comment. Also, once the Principles are rolled out and countries start to implement the legal and regulatory changes necessary to put the Principles into practice, it is anticipated that CPSS and IOSCO will undertake a monitoring effort to see how it is going. The focus will be on evaluating how quickly and broadly the Principles are being embedded in national legal and regulatory frameworks. The Principles are important in supporting the G20 strategy of mandatory clearing of standardized OTC derivatives trades and in ensuring that the four safeguards discussed earlier for global CCPs and other FMIs are implemented. As I mentioned earlier, the new Principles lay out the responsibilities of authorities for cooperative oversight.
However, underlying inflation has been revised up, chiefly due to the upward surprises in this item in the first few months of the year and a higher expected path of unit labour costs. 1  In any event, uncertainty remains very high and the risks to the growth projections are mainly on the downside, whereas the risks to the inflation projections are thought to be balanced. The main source of uncertainty is still the course of geopolitical tensions, in particular the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the speed and scale of the monetary policy tightening could lead to stronger transmission than anticipated in the projections. Indeed, the transmission is discernible not only in higher market and lending rates, but also in tighter credit supply conditions. Conversely, significant second-round effects are possible via wages and profit margins, particularly against the backdrop of a still-strong labour market and demand that is proving considerably resilient in certain sectors. From the monetary policy standpoint, although euro area inflation has declined, the projections indicate that it will remain too high for too long. In consequence, we on the ECB Governing Council have continued to tighten monetary policy. At last week’s meeting, we decided to raise the key interest rates by 25 basis points (bp), taking the deposit facility rate to 3.50%, which means a cumulative increase of 400 bp since July 2022. Further, we confirmed that we will discontinue the reinvestment of maturing securities under the asset purchase programme (APP) as of July 2023.

The search for a liquid instrument which would also provide a reliable international store of value has been going on for many decades. When discussions were held to build the Bretton Woods system, Keynes proposed the creation of a new international currency, the “Bancor” which could serve both as a source of liquidity and a store of value. Thirty years ago, there was extensive discussion in the IMF on the creation of a substitution account. This was a mechanism through which countries could exchange their reserve currencies against SDRs, and get a protection against exchange rate risk. Most recently, Governor Zhu has reopened the debate and suggested, over the long run, the creation of a new “super reserve” currency, while, in the meantime, enhancing the role and status of the SDR. 10  BIS Review 76/2010  There are good arguments to create international instruments providing a reliable store of value:   First, the safer investors feel about the risk-return profile of their holdings, the bigger the exposures they are prepared to accept. In that way, structural characteristics of the International Monetary System have an influence on the sustainability of global imbalances.   Second, once uncertainty on relative values settles in, it would likely be accompanied by extreme volatility as investors, whether public or private, constantly reshuffle their existing portfolios between countries and currencies in order to manage their exposure.
Interest rate premiums on bonds were pushed back during the pandemic and mortgage ratesfell marginally Basis points and per cent  Note. The bond rates refer to a 5 year maturity, difference against the expected policy rate (see footnote 7). Mortgage rates are an average of actual rates for new and renegotiated mortgages from Länsförsäkringar Bank, Nordea, SBAB, SEB, SHB and Swedbank. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Refinitiv, respective mortgage agents and the Riksbank. The housing market developed unexpectedly strongly during the pandemic Third, there are indications that the unusually low risk premiums for covered and corporate bonds had an impact on the behaviour of households and companies. The right panel in Figure 9 shows that the interest rate on household mortgage loans fell marginally in 2020 and 2021, despite the Riksbank having raised the policy rate just before the pandemic. In spring 2020, we feared that the housing and property markets – where indebtedness was high and where growth had been rapid – could be severely affected by the pandemic, which could ultimately jeopardise financial stability.24 However, the support measures, partly through expectations of continued low interest rates and easing the amortisation requirements from Finansinspektionen, seem instead  22  See Alsterlind (2021) for a more detailed analysis of how the risk premiums on covered bonds disappeared when the Riksbank's purchases began.

As the financial markets have begun to normalise, the krona has strengthened, and there is reason to believe it will continue to strengthen if the normalisation continues. But at the same time, renewed unrest could lead to further periods with a weaker krona exchange rate. The assessment of the development of the exchange rate during the coming period is, as always, very uncertain. Concluding remarks The development of the exchange rate is very important to a small, open economy like Sweden’s. The effects of the exchange rate on the economy can be divided up into effects on inflation and effects on the real economy, which are mainly through international trade. BIS Review 3/2010  13  It is very difficult to forecast exchange rates accurately, but there are good reasons, at least in the slightly longer term, to expect the krona to appreciate. At the same time, experiences show that the krona rate is sensitive to the unrest in the financial markets. The conditions in the financial markets have normalised and the krona has strengthened this year. A continued normalisation of the financial markets points to a continued strengthening of the krona. If the unrest increases again the krona may once again weaken in the short term. However, this possibility is not included in the Riksbank’s main scenario. If the krona strengthens in the future, as indicated by our forecasts, one can expect this to subdue GDP growth somewhat and to keep down inflation.
6/6  BIS - Central bankers' speeches

On the other hand, a developed and financially integrated region will be more attractive for foreign strategic investors, opening up the path toward regional development projects, particularly infrastructure ones where region’s banks might be directed in financing and investment. Further on I would like to give to you a short overview on the latest Albanian banking system achievements. After many years of difficult transition, in this late spring of 2005 the banking system is growing on a stable basis. Dear participants, I would like to ensure you that recently there are many qualitative developments of the Albanian banking system. I use the opportunity of this event to express that positive assessments on the banking system have been given also in the report prepared by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund after the completion of their assessment made on the Albanian financial system (FSAP-Financial System Assessment Program). Of course, this is good news. Conclusions of FSAP, of this important international passport, are an indication of our earliest conclusions that the Albanian financial system is characterized by a supervised and effective banking system. Regardless of what I mentioned above, sincerely feeling myself as a part of the banking system I would envisage that it needs better and faster motivation to reach higher contemporary standards in all the aspects of the banking activity. The banking system has experienced remarkable developments recently.
It should be clear to employees how their work aligns with the purpose and strategy and how they contribute to the overall success of the firm. Finally, within the employee category, the remedies need to cover the entire employment cycle, from recruitment and onboarding to performance management, compensation and promotion. I have already spoken about the importance of hiring practices, so I don’t need to repeat myself here. It goes without saying that to be successful in strengthening hiring practices, you need to incorporate a process where you assess whether candidates are a strong fit with the desired culture of the organization and develop indoctrination programs whereby new employees are educated on strategy and vision, as well as the behaviors that are not tolerated. The goal is to convince all employees of three points. First, good behavior protects them as well as the firm. Second, all employees share the consequences of poor conduct. Third, it is therefore the responsibility of each employee root out bad behavior. The industry also needs to consider a mechanism to stop movement of “bad apples” from firm to firm. The current situation not only facilitates movement, but in many cases rewards it. By allowing employees to jump from firm to firm, the impact of unethical behavior is systemic and cannot be contained within one firm or a small section of the industry. We must address this challenge.

At the same time, our supervisory focus on capital planning and management across firms has led to greater focus and attention on the internal processes that firms use to manage their capital, including the prudent distribution of capital to shareholders, whether through dividends or share buybacks. In the area of liquidity, again, new rules and regulations have raised both the absolute level of liquidity in firms and the quality of liquid assets (that is, assets that are readily accessible). This provides for a much stronger ability to manage through stress conditions. As many firms learned in the depths of the crisis, what was once thought to be a liquid asset quickly became illiquid as markets seized up and normal outlets for converting assets to cash evaporated. Further, our enhanced focus today on liquidity management across the range of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  firms we supervise has led to heightened management – and board of directors – attention to liquidity levels, liquidity risk management and liquidity stress testing. In addition, global supervisors have finalized rules – or are in the process of finalizing rules – in the areas of both capital and liquidity, including additional and more stringent rules for the largest, most systemically important firms. For these firms, additional buffers will be required, as will stronger risk management practices. 2. In addition to becoming more resilient, firms have made some progress in becoming less complex – although the progress is somewhat less measurable and less dramatic to date.
Data on developments in foreign trade of economy reveal a contracted trade exchange in the first five months of 2012. Value of exports marked a low annual growth of 1.3% in this period, reflecting the moderation of foreign demand and price developments in global markets. In this period, imports shrank by 2.0% in annual terms. These developments resulted to a decreased trade deficit in the first five months of the year by the annualised rate of 4.2%. Developments in foreign trade were determined mostly by electrical energy trade exchanges in this period. Excluding this effect, the growth in exports would be higher and the contraction in imports deeper, resulting in a contracted trade deficit, at 18.1%. The performance of monetary indicators was in line with the developments in the real economy and our analysis show contained monetary pressures on inflation. The annual growth of M3 was 8.7% in May, maintaining the average rates of the previous month of the current year. The growth paces of money supply slowed down compared to a year earlier, reflecting the lower demand of economic agents for money. The consolidated fiscal position  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  was coupled with a decrease of public sector borrowing, whereas private agents of economy reflected a low demand for financing. Lending to the private sector rose by 7.5% in May, pursuing the slowing trend, which has started since the end of previous year.

But having the information is only the first step. Equally important is the second step, that the information should get to the right people at the right time. Finally, on monitoring, it cannot be overstressed that that monitoring of the effectiveness of an institution’s internal controls should be a continual and ongoing process, and that monitoring of key risks should be an integral part of the daily operations of the institution. Effective and independent internal audit and compliance functions have an important role to play here. This requires these functions to have direct access to senior levels of the organisation so that potential criticisms of systems or transactions cannot be blocked by the line management concerned. These, then, are what I would regard as the key elements of a financial institution’s internal controls. As regards how these are applied to individual institutions, my expectation as a banking supervisor is that any financial institution, regardless of size, should have an effective system of internal controls that is consistent with the nature, complexity, and risk of its activities and that responds to changes in the institution’s environment and conditions. I am not saying that I expect every institution to be using state-of-the-art risk management and control techniques. But what I do expect is that every institution should have control systems that adhere to the basic principles I have just discussed, and which are as state-of-the-art as they need to be given that particular institution’s activities. I also expect these systems to be kept under review as things change.