samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The positive experience of Spanish banks that have already done this during the last fortnight, and the improvement in bank risk recorded in certain markets, make these issues a unique window of opportunity for the financial system's use of international euro markets to return to normal. Also, and as part of the Eurosystem, the Banco de España will continue to help facilitate the adequate provision of liquidity, to ensure the proper functioning of money markets. But, apart from the functions assigned to the Banco de España in relation to financial stability, in our capacity as a central bank and bank supervisor, it is also our duty to contribute our opinion, in the performance of our task of overseeing macroeconomic stability, on the design of the response that should be framed in a situation such as that described. This response must include both the role of the economic policies of the various tiers of government and the responsibilities that must be assumed by the various economic and social agents.

Bank of France reports industrial output continued to make progress in June 1997 BANK OF FRANCE, MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW, June 1997. According to the business leaders surveyed by the Banque de France, industrial output continued to make progress in June. Output of consumer and intermediate goods advanced significantly, with a more moderate increase for capital goods, whereas it levelled out in the food-processing industry and slightly dipped in the automobile industry. Capacity utilization rates recovered. Overall demand strengthened both in France and abroad. Export sales grew considerably, in particular to Great Britain, Italy and the United States. Domestic demand rose, stimulated to some extent by inventory replenishment. Order books seem generally satisfactory. While they have emptied out somewhat in the food processing industry, they remain on the full side in the capital goods sector. Inventories are only just above desired levels, despite an increase in the consumer goods sector, and above all in the automobile and food processing industries. In the coming months, activity is likely to intensify across the board, except for the automobile sector which is expected to stabilize. Overall, raw material and finished goods prices changed little. The cost of supplies climbed in certain branches of the intermediate goods sector, mainly due to the rise in the dollar, although these increases were not passed on to sales prices. Business managers continued to take a cautious stance on investment. The little capital expenditure there was primarily concerned the modernisation of equipment and bringing it into line with standards.
In these projections, annual HICP inflation is projected to range between 0.2% and 0.6% in 2009 and between 0.8% and 1.6% in 2010, revised slightly upwards from the June 2009 Eurosystem staff projections, reflecting mainly upward revisions to energy prices. Available forecasts from international organisations provide a broadly similar picture. Risks to the outlook for price developments remain broadly balanced. They relate, in particular, to the outlook for economic activity and to higher than expected commodity prices. Furthermore, increases in indirect taxation and administered prices may be stronger than currently expected owing to the need for fiscal consolidation in the coming years. Turning to the monetary analysis, the latest data confirm a continued deceleration in both broad money and credit growth. In July, the annual growth rates of M3 and loans to the private sector declined further to 3.0% and 0.6% respectively, reaching new lows since 1999. These developments support the assessment of a slower underlying pace of monetary expansion and low inflationary pressures over the medium term. The short-term developments of M3 and its components have remained volatile. The recent changes in interest rates paid on the different instruments included in M3 have continued to underlie the strong shifts in the allocation of funds from, in particular, short-term time deposits to overnight deposits. The deceleration in annual M3 growth has thus continued to combine with a substantial further strengthening of annual M1 growth, which in July rose to 12.1%.

If the downward revision to income expectations proves to have been justified then the level of output is unlikely to return to its previous path. We don’t know yet – it will depend in part on how persistent these shocks turn out to be – but this is clearly important to the longer-term outlook for both growth and inflation. In the near term, whatever the source of the changes in perceptions of permanent income, it is likely that growth will continue to be below the previous trend until more of the real adjustments to balance sheets across the economy have been made. That includes households, the public sector, banks and other businesses. In my view we are maybe two thirds to three quarters of the way through in each case, varying both across and within sectors. There is nothing scientific or “official” in that assessment! It’s just a personal best guess on the back of how the economy is behaving plus some direct knowledge of the progress of the banks with their deleveraging plans. To be clear, we do not need to be 100% finished before growth strengthens at all, and we may be beginning to see some signs of a pick-up. And I think this prognosis is consistent with our Inflation Report central projection of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  a gentle, albeit sustained, recovery over the next three years. That is a somewhat sobering, but not calamitous, outlook for real growth.
This strong performance is anchored by the strong legal, regulatory and Shariah framework governing the industry, with full commitment of the government to position Malaysia as a thriving International Islamic financial centre. Major initiatives, such as the recent establishment of a well financed INCEIF, or the International Centre for Education in Islamic Finance, are clear indication of the efforts to enhance talent and human capital development, an essential element to drive innovation and sustain market competitiveness of the industry. T he  2  BIS Review 31/2006  dynamism and viability of the takaful industry in Malaysia that is supported by sound enabling environment have already drawn significant attention of m any strong international players seeking the opportunity to be part of the Malaysian takaful industry. The advancement and progress that have been achieved thus far have provided competitive advantage to our Malaysian takaful operators and opened up significant opportunity for our players to venture further abroad and become stronger global players, InsyaAllah. Against this backdrop of growing opportunities and challenges, it is imperative for the takaful operators to enhance their institutional capabilities and operational efficiency in order to strengthen their competitive position in responding to the ever changing environment. It is our aspiration to see Commerce Takaful Berhad emerges as an effective and progressive takaful operator with strong presence in the domestic financial landscape and acts as among the anchor players to expand takaful business at the global front.

Given these challenges and potential shocks to the economy, it is important that as a nation we build resilience and fortify the foundation of the economy. Towards this end, it is critical for us to be able to transform our economy. Less than 50 years ago, the Malaysian economy was primarily based on agriculture and commodities such as tin and rubber. Today, we are a well-diversified nation, with the services, manufacturing, and mining sectors as key growth engines. Most notable, Malaysia has established itself as a key hub for the electrical and electronics (E&E) manufacturing industry, playing an important role in the global supply chain. Looking to the future, we aspire to become an innovation-based and high valueadded economy by leveraging on technology and high skilled talent. Similarly, at individual level, Malaysians must build financial resilience by equipping themselves with the necessary knowledge and tools to manage their finances. This is where you, as practitioners, play a vital role by professionally advising, educating and guiding your clients to ensure they are on the right track to secure a better future for themselves and their loved ones. 1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  A comprehensive and effective financial plan is crucial to help an individual or a family build financial resilience. Financial resilience is critical in a time of economic uncertainty and in a shock-prone world. It provides households with the ability to withstand the negative financial impact in periods of shocks.
Looking at these patterns over time paints a somewhat more optimistic picture (Chart 4). There is clear evidence of economics having become more cross-disciplinary during the course of this century. Once finance is taken out of these estimates, however, economics continues to lag. And alternative metrics, such as the degree of rigidity in hierarchies and gender diversity, paint economics in a less favourable light (Fourcade, Ollion and Algan (2015)). Despite progress, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that economics remains an insular, self-referential discipline. 9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  9  The economics profession’s intellectual bloodline is purer than in most other disciplines. In some respects, it is a source of strength that the workhorse economic model is a thoroughbred. That quest for purity also contributed importantly, however, to this workhorse falling at the first meaningful fence put in its path. This suggests it is probably as good a time as any to consider mixing the intellectual bloodline, just as physics and other of the natural sciences have done. Agent-Based Models (ABMs)  Against this backdrop, what other disciplines and approaches might be productive alternative lines of enquiry? One potentially promising strand is so-called agent-based modelling. Agent-based models (ABMs) are interconnected systems of individual “agents” who follow well-defined behavioural rules of thumb. What makes these models interesting is that these agents are heterogeneous and interactive. In other words, these models relax one of the key assumptions of the standard model – a single, representative agent.

This fall in fund performance then gives rise to a second feedback loop, inducing investor withdrawals from those funds which have under-performed, further reducing demand for the bond and amplifying the fall in its price. It is only after some time that the influence of value investors stabilises the market. Each individual run of the model is like hitting a wild horse once and has an unpredictable outcome. But we can get an idea of the general behaviour of the funds by running the same scenario repeatedly – if you like, hitting the wild horses hundreds of times and looking at their most likely response. The most likely behaviour of funds in this model-market are oscillatory, with shocks amplified in the short run and only damped after a period of several hundred days (Chart 14). But by rolling the dice over and over again, we can also look at the distribution of possible outcomes, as the average may hide extreme behaviour in the tails. For example, if the fraction of passive investors increases, this dampens average changes in bond yields (Chart 15). But it also increases the chances of much bigger changes in yields – the tails of the distribution fatten. 34  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  34  Chart 14: Impact of a shock to the expected loss rate  Chart 15: Distribution of outcomes after a shock to the expected loss rate  Source: Braun-Munzinger et al (2016).
This is done both because we recognize the lags with which monetary policy operates, and because of our concern about the costs in terms of output loss and employment of adjusting inflation to the target. If we do not do this, the adjustment would take much less time to complete. All this is common knowledge. But I feel it needs to be stressed in order to clear, yet one more time, the mistaken argument that the CBC does not consider the level of economic activity when making its decisions. Additionally it serves to insist on the issue that the current global financial crisis was not caused – as some argue – by monetary policy’s orientation to price stability, but by a tremendous failure in the financial systems of the developed world. Neither the private sector nor policymakers were able to foresee the danger of the imbalances that were accumulating during this decade. Today, the monetary and fiscal stimulus packages are precisely what have allowed the world economy, which suffered an initial shock similar to that of the Great Depression, to show a substantially better performance. This is particularly true in the case of Chile. The evolution of the economy and monetary policy from 2007 onwards In just three years, the Chilean economy has gone through two radically different episodes, although related to one another.

Peter Pang: Managing the next phase of growth in Asia Welcome remarks by Mr Peter Pang, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook, Hong Kong, 28 April 2011. *  *  *  1. Good morning. It is my great pleasure to welcome you all to the launch of the latest issue of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook (REO). We are honoured to have Mr. Anoop Singh, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF, and his colleagues to share with us today their views on the region’s economic and financial developments, the outlook and the challenges, and what can be done to manage the risks and promote sustainable growth in the years ahead. 2. I like the theme of this issue of the REO – “Managing the Next Phase of Growth” – as this is what concerns us most in Asia at this juncture. We are now some two-and-a-half years after the outbreak of the global financial crisis, and Asia has been leading the global recovery – a recovery that is maturing as rightly pointed out by the IMF. The question is where and how we should move on from here. And looking ahead, managing the next phase of growth is very challenging as we are facing complications of unprecedented scale and dimensions. 3.
Taking into account all the new information and analyses which have become available since our meeting on 13 January 2011, we continue to see evidence of short-term upward pressure on overall inflation, mainly owing to energy and commodity prices. This has not so far affected our assessment that price developments will remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. At the same time, very close monitoring is warranted. Recent economic data confirm the positive underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area, while uncertainty remains elevated. A cross-check of the outcome of our economic analysis with that of the monetary analysis indicates that  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  inflationary pressures over the medium to long term should remain contained. Inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. The continued firm anchoring of inflation expectations is of the essence. Turning to fiscal policies, it is now essential that all governments fully implement their fiscal consolidation plans in 2011. Where necessary, additional corrective measures must be implemented swiftly to ensure progress in achieving fiscal sustainability. Beyond 2011, countries need to specify concrete policy measures in their multi-year adjustment programmes so as to underpin the credibility of their fiscal consolidation targets. Experience shows that expenditure restraint is an important step towards achieving and maintaining fiscal soundness, notably when enshrined in binding domestic policy rules.

At the same time, the yield curve has steepened somewhat further, implying that the attractiveness of short-term instruments included in M3 continues to decline compared with more highly remunerated longer-term instruments outside M3. On the counterpart side, the annual growth rate of bank loans to the private sector continued to conceal differences in the magnitude of growth across sectors. The growth of loans to non-financial corporations stood at –0.2% in December, after –0.1% in the previous month, while the growth of loans to households strengthened to 3.0% in December, after 2.8% in November. Taking into account the effect of derecognition of loans from bank balance sheets and looking through short-term volatility, the latest data confirm a continued gradual strengthening in the annual growth of lending to the non-financial private sector. At the same time, the latest data point to the overall size of bank balance sheets having contracted again after expanding for most of 2010, mainly on account of a reduction in lending between banks. It is important that banks continue to expand the provision of credit to the private sector, in an environment of increasing demand. To address this challenge, where necessary, it is essential for banks to retain earnings, to turn to the market to strengthen further their capital bases or to take full advantage of government support measures for recapitalisation. To sum up, the current key ECB interest rates still remain appropriate. We therefore decided to leave them unchanged.
The number of new jobs certainly grew by some one per cent in Europe when activity was recovering but almost as many jobs disappeared in the downturns. In the United States, on the other hand, over the business cycle there have been net increases. Economists differ as to the underlying causes. For some economists, equilibrium unemployment has moved up on account of underlying structural factors. One hypothesis, put forward by, among others, the American economist Paul Krugman, is that certain categories of labour (low educated, for example) are having increasing difficulty in competing in the labour market.6 This is mainly bound up with a technology that replaces manual labour with machines but presumably it also has to do with increased competition from countries where wage levels are considerably lower. It is often pointed out that the effects of this are countered by a wider wage spread that in turn has stimulated an expansion of the private services sector. Employment has therefore risen rapidly in the United States. In Europe, on the other hand, the result has been increased unemployment; the labour market and wage formation here have not permitted the same development as in the United States. A similar effect, leading to a stronger employment trend, may have come from a lower average real wage rise in the United States compared with Europe. The steep real wage increase in the EU area has favoured capital-intensive sectors and stimulated the use of capital-intensive technology. At the same time, low-productivity enterprises have shrunk or closed down.

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: On the occasion of the inauguration of the Euro Exhibition in Rome Speech by Mr Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the inauguration of the Euro Exhibition, Rome, 3 April 2009. *  *  *  Dear Fabrizio, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a pleasure for me to be here in these wonderful premises of Banca d’Italia in Rome to celebrate with you the occasion of the 10th anniversary of Stage Three of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and of the adoption of the euro. We are also here to inaugurate “The Euro Exhibition”, presenting the euro banknotes and coins through a range of innovative features, which we hope will be appreciated by the public in Rome. 1. First 10 years of the euro  On 1 January 1999 the Third Stage of EMU began with the irrevocable fixing of the exchange rates of the currencies of the 11 Member States initially forming the euro area. Monetary authority for the new currency was transferred to the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The euro became the currency of over 300 million citizens of Europe. The number of countries participating in the EMU grew over the years. Today, euro banknotes and coins are legal tender in 16 of the 27 Member States of the European Union, and used by almost 330 million citizens in the euro area. Slovakia has recently become the 16th member of the euro area.
This will be a signal that the interest rate will probably deviate from these assumptions in the period ahead. Monetary policy under uncertainty There is always uncertainty associated with economic projections, but there is also uncertainty concerning the actual state of the economy at the time of the decision. Moreover, the effects of our own interest rate setting are uncertain.10 Because most aspects of the future are uncertain, our projections are seldom 100 per cent correct. Viewed in retrospect, it might appear that monetary policy could have been conducted better. However, interest rate decisions have to be assessed ex ante, in the light of the information that was available at the time that the decisions were made. One of the main problems associated with the conduct of monetary policy under uncertainty is access to real time data that provide good information about inflationary pressures in the economy. Petter Jacob Bjerve pointed this out in an unusually perspicacious article in 1981 on cyclical policies in Norway in the 1970s: “It will otherwise always be a problem for economic policy that the statistics are prepared more or less after the events, and that it takes time after the statistics are published before we are aware of whether new trends have begun to emerge.

Some old habits in explaining FX rates no longer make much sense. For example, the concept of fundamental factors that determine the current account, whose balance is then equilibrated by capital flows. This vantage point usually rests on the implicit assumption that trade flows are the "real" and causative side of the coin, while capital flows are a flexible gap filler, a sort of second round financial mechanism set off to match any given trade imbalance. In a world of integrated capital markets one may also have good reason to argue the other way round. Why are long-term capital flows, driven by perceived rates of capital productivity, less "real and fundamental" than trade flows? Would it not also be possible to argue - based on recent experience - that capital flows to the United States were, for a long time, the fundamental causative change which effected - as a consequence - the deterioration in the current account? Be that as it may, traders, investors and central bankers would be well advised to accept the fact, and be prepared for it, that in the short- and medium-term surprises are always possible in the Forex markets. This was so in the past and will continue to be so in the future. Smallness and connectedness: some facts Let me now talk about the SFR, about its main features as a currency which is traded and held in international portfolios.