samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
16  Figure 9 Volume exports of goods (annual change, percent)  30 20  75 Agriculture, forestry and fishing (right axis)  Manufacturing  10  50 25  Total  0  0  -10  -25  Mining  -20  -50 11  12  13  14  15  16  17  Source: Source:Central Bank of Chile. Table 1 Domestic scenario (annual change, percent)  2016  2017 (f) Sep.17 Report  GDP Domestic demand Domestic demand (w/o inventory change) Gross fixed capital formation Total consumption Goods and services exports Goods and services imports Current account (% of GDP) Gross national savings (% of GDP) Nominal gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)  1.6 1.1 2.0 -0.8 2.8 -0.1 -1.6 -1.4 20.2 23.2  1.25-1.75 2.6 1.7 -1.6 2.7 0.1 4.6 -1.2 19.8 21.7  2018 (f) Dec.17 Report 1.4 3.1 1.6 -2.5 2.9 0.0 5.8 -1.1 20.0 21.4  Sep.17 Report 2.5-3.5 3.9 2.9 3.2 2.8 4.5 7.4 -1.8 20.2 21.8  Dec.17 Report 2.5-3.5 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.0 4.5 7.3 -1.2 20.5 21.4  (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

5) to be an employer of excellence, offering valuable proposals that inspire people and teams to deploy and develop their maximum potential, in a collaborative environment, with continuous learning, professionally and personally challenging; managing to attract and engage the best talents, aligned with the strategic objectives and principles of the Bank. These five strategic focuses are translated into 21 lines of action that the Bank team will develop over the next five-year period. Of these, I would like to single out some that are especially relevant for the Bank's relationship with its environment. In regards the two issues that bring us together today —monetary policy and financial stability— the Bank will begin to apply the new framework adopted recently for the formulation, adoption and communication of its decisions. In the case of monetary policy, beginning on January 1st, the new calendar and structure of the Monetary Policy Meetings will take effect, improving the instances of communication. The same is true of the calendar and structure of the MP Report and the FSR. This will couple with a deepening of the analytical work in the macroeconomic and financial fields that will be reflected in both Reports. It will involve developing a new stage of the economic modeling agenda, applying microdata bases and developing new methodologies for financial risk identification.
Switzerland according to common view  Switzerland has the reputation of being a special case - one which in some ways is slowly becoming a normal case. A good example of this is the development of the public spending ratio. Still quite low by international standards at the beginning of the eighties, it has now almost reached the EU average. As in most industrialised countries, the financing of the social security system has become a political hot potato also in my country. At the same time, the wealth gap between Switzerland and other OECD nations is shrinking; and there is no consensus as to how Switzerland might boost its economic growth. Political debates have intensified and politicians’ telegenic skills have become an issue there, too. However, certain aspects of Switzerland’s time-honoured image still prevail. Despite all the prophecies of doom, our democracy is under no threat; the Alps still shine in all their majestic glory; and the Swiss people - a fifth of whom are non-Swiss in origin - are just as hard-working, punctual and reliable as ever. The level of employment is in fact remarkably high: almost 80 percent of the population of working age are in employment. While it is true that the unemployment rate rose sharply at the beginning of the nineties, it is still less than half as high as the EU average.

Indeed, this attitude has, in many respects, proved highly advantageous for the country. Nonetheless, it doesn’t change the fact that international competition has increased and that the Swiss are making the most of the growing number of possibilities to avail themselves of goods and services from abroad. BIS Review 69/2004  1  Of course, we can’t talk about Switzerland without also talking about the Swiss franc. The Swiss franc forms the basis for the Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy autonomy and for price stability. It also underpins the efficient Swiss capital market, which is characterised by a low interest rate level, when compared internationally, and which represents an important locational advantage for the country. The European political and economic environment - of which Switzerland is an integral part - has, however, gone through a great deal of change. It is therefore not surprising that our relationship with Europe is a topic of much discussion in my country. 2. Switzerland and the European scene  For almost six years now, Switzerland has been surrounded by the single European currency. And for six years we have been trying to make it clear to our friends abroad that Switzerland is nevertheless not an island, but is in fact deeply integrated into Europe. Approximately 20 percent of our workforce comes from EU member states. A total 60 percent of our exports go to the EU and 80 percent of our imports come from there.
With that strongly in mind, supervisors will maintain the normal supervisory approach and focus on the biggest risks at each firm. For some businesses, Brexit will be a key risk and will, justifiably, warrant supervisory attention – we must not lose sight of risks as structures and business models change, or as activities move around or adapt. Equally, firms’ management should remain focused on the full spectrum of risks that they face. As we would any other identified risk, we expect to have discussions with firms about their contingency plans as part of our regular interaction. But in terms of how supervisors go about their day-to-day business, we remain focused squarely on the task in hand – safety and soundness of all firms and policyholder protection for insurers. Returning to the punchbowl? As well as a determination to inform our approach to current risks by having regard to lessons learned in the past, PRA supervisors are forward-looking and pay close attention to emerging trends and potential future 16  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  16  risks. I would like to take this opportunity to highlight some issues of particular relevance for building societies. We observe that net interest margins at societies are coming under increasing pressure, and, although they are still well above levels seen in 2010, the trend seems to have turned downwards.

In this speech, I will take a whistle-stop tour through the twentieth century to examine the increasing role that supervision has played in the regulation of financial institutions and why it remains an essential ingredient of the regulatory framework here in the UK. This is especially true in the context of regulatory arbitrage and, of course, Brexit – themes to which I will return later in this speech. First, though, I will consider the three main roots of supervision during this period, namely the individual regimes of oversight relating to banks, building 1  societies and insurers . I will proceed in alphabetical order in the hope that this will avoid offending any sector, even if (regrettably) it means the bankers get in first. 1  My colleague Mark Yallop has given an excellent speech in similar terrain. 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  Banking Supervision Let’s begin in 1890. Our scene is Cannon St and an establishment which printed a weekly chronicle that went by the name of The Statist. Hot off the press is a headline: “Messrs Baring Brothers’ Issues”. Then follows a well-informed, highly sceptical article which questioned the quality of much of the foreign business being embarked upon by what was, at the time, considered by many to be the most respectable house in the 2  City of London .
–  MAS ordered the bank to commission an independent audit of its AML/CFT controls. –  The audit uncovered serious control weaknesses and compliance failures. –  MAS imposed a composition sum of $ on the bank. –  The bank has since beefed up its control framework and checks. Another example: –  A licensed financial adviser was rated poor following MAS’ inspection, for serious lapses in policies and procedures on customer due diligence. –  We did not discover any actual money laundering or terrorism financing cases but MAS imposed composition of $ on the licensed financial adviser for breaching AML requirements. –  MAS then directed the licensed financial adviser to cease all new business until the independent person has verified that the licensed financial adviser has taken corrective actions to address inspection findings. –  The licensed financial adviser is in process of winding down its financial advisory operations. MAS will not tolerate abuse of our financial system for criminal activity. •  Our message to tax criminals is loud and clear: their money is not welcome in Singapore. •  And our message to our financial institutions is also loud and clear: if you suspect the money is not clean, don’t take it. Financial centre made good progress in future drivers of growth Last, a few words on prospects for financial sector. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The growth of the sector is often volatile, due to the sentiment-sensitive nature of many financial activities.

The economic activity slowdown and uncertainty about the future, in the face of still tightening lending terms by banks, have guided the economic agents’ decisions to postpone the investment plans and to less finance consumption from borrowing. However, monetary developments confirm an improved situation of deposits during the second half of 2009. The change in depositors’ behaviour, in the context of measures taken to prevent the spread of global crisis effects, and the foreign currency inflows in the form of remittances during summer, have contributed to stabilizing the liquidity situation of the banking system. Financial markets were characterized by a more relaxed situation during the second half of the year. The banking system continued to be featured by liquidity constraints, which were remedied by central bank liquidity injections. Improved liquidity situation due to increased deposits in the system and fostered certainty in the market created a suitable environment for transmitting the monetary policy signal to the interbank market. The key interest rate cut at the end of October is followed by reduced yields on government securities, after the upward trend characterizing them throughout the year. In the meantime, the Bank of Albania, in accordance with time lags that characterize the monetary policy transmission mechanism, expects and requires that the key interest rate cut be transmitted to credit markets. *** The Supervisory Council’s Decision on keeping the key interest rate unchanged aims to further maintain and consolidate the macroeconomic balances, considering them as a necessary prerequisite for a sustainable and long-term growth.
For instance, a report that received considerable attention recently warned that every second job in Sweden would disappear within 20 years. 4 At the same time, there is another ongoing debate about demographic developments, with an increasing ageing population and several people therefore saying that we need an increase in labour immigration and better integration to maintain welfare at the current levels. 1 I would like to thank Magnus Jonsson for his help with writing the speech and Emelie Theobald for her help  with data and figures. I would also like to thank Mattias Erlandsson, Jesper Hansson, Goran Katinic, Åsa OlliSegendorf, Cecilia Roos-Isaksson, Marianne Sterner, Ulf Söderström and Anders Vredin for valuable comments and Elizabeth Nilsson for helping to translate the speech into English. 2 See Keynes (1930). 3 See Leontief (1952). 4 See “Vartannat jobb automatiseras inom 20 år – utmaningar för Sverige” (Every second job will be automated in 20 years – challenges for Sweden), Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research. 1 [24]  Changes in trends are difficult to predict, as they are not visible until a certain amount of time has passed, as illustrated by the predictions of Keynes and Leontief. I will therefore not make any attempt to predict developments in the labour market today, but instead look back at what has happened. There are many indications that there have been several trend changes in the labour market in the period following the financial crisis 2008-2009.

Illiquid loans are converted into liquid bonds, which can easily be sold. Many investors are happy to have credit risk in their portfolios for better diversification. But they do not want to manage individual credits, and they also want liquidity in their investments. They therefore appreciate the securitised products. In recent years, however, it has become increasingly common for securitised loans (which have been converted into bonds) to be repackaged into various so-called structured credit instruments. An impressive variety of this type of structured product has arisen in a short period of time. Perhaps the most common form are those known as CDOs, Collateralised Debt Obligations. With a CDO it is possible to put together bonds from many different securitised loan portfolios and even to add other assets if desired. The idea is that the portfolio that has been put together is structured in different parts (tranches) with different credit risks (this is in practice often done by the large international investment banks). When interest income from the underlying assets starts coming in, it is distributed according to the order of priority of the tranches, or their seniority. First, the most senior tranches receive their allocation. After that the income is distributed to the second most senior tranches, and so on. Investing in a junior tranche thus entails greater risk than investing in a senior tranche, but on the other hand the earnings are higher. At the bottom is an equity-like part, which is only paid when all the others have received their share.
The renminbi exchange rate should also be able to respond more to the underlying trends in external trade. Greater flexibility may also permit exchange rate adjustments in pursuit of other macroeconomic objectives. Should greater flexibility in renminbi be pursued, I believe that there would be advantages, in the interests of transparency and market confidence, for the mainland to set out clearly what it expects to achieve by the measure, especially in the absence of any move towards fuller convertibility. If the benefits are in doubt, or if the underlying motivation is misunderstood, 5  BIS Review 68/2000  there could be an adverse impact on general sentiment, which would be manifested in the financial markets. We all know how sensitive financial markets can be, and this sensitivity somewhat blurs the Hong Kong response to the prospect of greater flexibility in the renminbi’s exchange rate, in particular its impact on the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate. Together with the confusion between the convertibility of a currency and the flexibility in an exchange rate, this sensitivity perhaps explains the rather excited off-the-cuff response given earlier this year by the group of Hong Kong businessmen to Premier Zhu Rongji when the subject was raised in a meeting among them. As a result, there was this message to me that we in the HKMA should examine the matter carefully. We have since done so and I have, in July, provided Premier Zhu with a response, through Governor Dai Xianglong of the People’s Bank of China.

The fact that a wide range of important decisions on issues ranging from food and energy safety to repair and reconstruction of the financial system are made at the G-20, of which Turkey is an active member, clearly suggests that the global economy’s center of gravity is shifting. Corresponding to the ever-increasing importance of the G-20, the weight of Turkey and her peer developing countries in international institutions, such as the IMF, is increasing as well. In his statement in the late 2010, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss Kahn described the changes in the Fund’s quotas and governance “the most fundamental governance overhaul in the Fund’s 65-year history, and the biggest ever shift of influence in favor of emerging markets and developing countries”. Once the IMF’s 14th General Review of Quotas is completed, Turkey’s share in the IMF’s total quota will be more than doubled compared to 2004. Their outstanding economic performance and rapidly increasing share in the global economy over the past decade have considerably helped developing countries to have an increasing voice in the international arena. These countries, among which Turkey, with its economic performance, stands as one of the leading countries, have weathered the recent global crisis with less damage compared to developed countries and exhibited better performance in reverting back to pre-crisis production levels and growth rates. Recently, there have been debates about whether the developing country group has decoupled from developed countries.
In the US, estimates suggest it was broadly equivalent in scale to banking in the run-up to the crisis. At a global level, non-bank intermediation is currently estimated at around $ trillion, around half of the assets of the global banking system. Because many of these entities sit outside of the regulatory perimeter, data on their exposures and interactions is thin on the ground. But work in the US to map these interactions suggests they too are dense and complex (Pozsar et al (2010)). Chart 8 presents a stylised map of the shadow banking sector and its interaction with the banking sector. These interactions are highly complex and multi-layered. (c)  Complexity of macro-financial interactions  The links and interactions between the financial sector and the wider economy are, in some respects, even less well mapped than the shadow banking sector. They, too, have evolved significantly over recent decades in scale and complexity. As an example of that evolution, Chart 9 looks at a representation of the flow of funds between various sectors in the UK – companies, households, the rest of the world and government. It also shows the role of the financial sector in intermediating these flows of funds between ultimate asset-owners (shown at the top) and liability-holders (shown at the bottom). The intermediation sector is further decomposed into banking and “other” financial intermediaries such as pension, hedge and other funds and insurance companies. The Bank of England’s is also shown.

This in a sense underscores the importance of Tinbergen’s augmented policy rule – that there should be as many policy tools as there are complex sub-systems – when managing a complex system of systems. None of the models so far considers global spill-overs, either through trade or financial channels. Generally-speaking, there is a dearth of macro-economic models which take seriously these international spillovers in an analytically-coherent fashion. Even if modelling this behaviour is over-ambitious in the short-term, there may be merit in improved monitoring of these global flows of financing over time, given their importance for the stability of economies and financial systems. Elsewhere, I have likened this to the creation of “global weather map”. This could be used to track and map the source, scale and nature of cross-border capital flows in close to real-time (Haldane (2012, 2014) and IMF (2013)). Plotting this complex, rapidly-adapting web would be a natural precursor to using it to address “what if” questions. What, for example, would be the impact of a rise in US interest rates on the international flow of funds? The IMF would be the natural guardians of this surveillance-cum-stress-testing machine. (c)  Policy design  Significant changes have been made to the macro-financial policy architecture since the crisis. In general, these frameworks have moved closer towards meeting Tinbergen’s rule of having as many distinct policy tools as there are complex layers in the macro-financial system.
The recent crisis raised many issues for which clear solutions, or even consensus, have yet to emerge, including on the propensity for home bias in the policy responses, suitable approaches to cross-border resolutions, and the significant challenge of coordinating policies across different legal and institutional frameworks. This is an area where the legal framework remains highly fragmented. A sustainable solution will require legal reforms in particular, to provide certainty and clarity in dealing with crises. As events in the current global environment have demonstrated, central banking has become significantly more challenging. The issues confronting central banks today are far more diverse and complex, prompting the re-examination of the role of central banks, the capacity to manage and contain risks to monetary and financial stability, and the governance  BIS Review 113/2009  1  arrangements and the policy instruments that are needed to support the effectiveness of central banks. The new Central Bank of Malaysia Act 2009 which was passed by Parliament in July this year represents the culmination of more than two years work to address the issues and challenges that are confronting Central Banks in this rapidly changing environment. The Act elaborates extensively giving greater clarity on the mandates for which we are accountable and providing enhanced powers to undertake these mandates. In the principal objective of promoting monetary stability, it is recognised that price stability is to be achieved in an environment of sustainable growth of the economy.

08.07.2019  The Banco de España and its promotion of economic history research Presentation of the “Guide to Historical Banking Archives in Spain” Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It is a pleasure for me to close this conference, which has presented the “Guide to Historical Banking Archives in Spain”. This publication, both for the quality of its information and the wealth of data it contains, will no doubt contribute to increasing knowledge on the historical development of the Spanish banking system. I would like to thank all those who have participated in this project for their efforts. My gratitude in particular to the academic historian, Pedro Tedde, to Professor María del Carmen Angulo, and to all those institutions and individuals who have enthusiastically collaborated in the publication of the guides to their respective archives. And naturally, too, to the Banco de España teams behind this initiative. The value of the initiative lies in the very value of the Spanish banking and Banco de España archive collections. These archives are fundamental to the study of our history and the development of Spain’s banking system. In this respect, I wish to highlight the importance of having historical archives that allow documents to be held and conserved and that guarantee their traceability and integrity. Without these archives, our knowledge of the past would no doubt be limited. Indeed, their subject matter provides for well-founded historical analysis and for a better understanding of the reasons that led to specific financial decisions.