samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The “slow correction” of 1962 comes to mind as an example: A stock market correction took place, and yet the economy continued to fare well. Here is the point as to the market’s beer goggles. Were a stock market correction to ensue while I have the vote, I would not flinch from supporting continued reductions in the size of our asset purchases as long as the real economy is growing, cyclical unemployment is declining and demand-driven deflation remains a small tail risk; I would vote for continued reductions in our asset purchases, with an eye toward eliminating them entirely at the earliest practicable date. How large is the camel? Let’s turn to the camel, by which I mean the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. A little history provides some perspective. We began to grow our balance sheet as we approached year-end 2008. On Sept. 10, 2008, the amount of Reserve Bank credit outstanding was $ billion. On Nov. 25, 2008, we announced a program to purchase $ billion of securities issued by the housing-related government-sponsored enterprises, together with our intent to purchase up to $ billion in MBS in order to goose the housing market. I supported these initiatives, recognizing that the economy was in the throes of a financial panic.

Richard W Fisher: Beer goggles, monetary camels, the eye of the needle and the first law of holes Remarks by Mr Richard W Fisher, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, before the National Association of Corporate Directors, Dallas, Texas, 14 January 2014. *  *  *  With reference to Peter Boockvar, the Book of Matthew, Sherlock Holmes, “The Wolf of Wall Street” and Denis Healey. The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. Thank you, George [Jones]. George is a great member of the Dallas Fed board of directors, and I am honored he would take the time to introduce me. Waylon Jennings said of your namesake that “if we could all sound like we wanted to, we’d all sound like George Jones.”1 I often feel that way about George at our board meetings. He gives a sharp, crisp, spot-on briefing of banking conditions in that deep, beautiful voice of his and I always think: I want to be just like George when I grow up. Again, thank you George for that kind introduction. During the holiday break, I spent a good deal of time trying to organize my thoughts on how I will approach monetary policy going forward. Today, I am going to share some of those thoughts that might be of interest to you as corporate directors.
Jon Cunliffe: Financial stability, the single market and Capital Markets Union Speech by Sir Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability of the Bank of England, at the City of London Corporation and Open Europe conference, London, 20 January 2015. *  *  *  The Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957, established the basic four freedoms of what has now become the European Union – freedom of goods, services, people and capital. I want to talk a little today about the last of these and about the development of the single market in financial services – its history, how it has dealt with the twin objectives of stability and openness and its future development, particularly the capital markets union. The freedom of capital movement agreed in 1957 was for many years only an aspiration. In that post war world, free movement of capital must have seemed a dream. To many, with not so distant memories of the inter war years, of the collapse of an earlier period of financial globalisation and with continuous strain on the balance of payments, it might have seemed a bad dream. The risks to economic and financial stability may well have seemed too great to allow open capital markets. Open capital markets have, through history tossed and turned between being seen as an opportunity for additional trade and growth, and a potentially destabilising force. The path to open capital markets in Europe was slow – as it was in the rest of the world.

Mr. George discusses macro-economic sustainability in the United Kingdom Speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mr. E.A.J. George, at the Chemical Industries Association: Business Outlook Conference Dinner in London on 14/1/98. I am particularly pleased to be associated with your conference theme of sustainability. The central banker’s mantra, with which we start our daily prayer meetings, is: “Price stability is a necessary condition for sustainable growth” And sustainable growth we see as effectively synonymous with the long-term macro-economic prosperity which is what we are, of course, all seeking to achieve. Now I suspect the same is true at the micro-economic level - the level of the individual firm. There are certainly differences between your perspective and ours. You, in the chemical industry, for example, know what you are doing! I mean you know precisely what you are doing at least in your production processes - where our business is much less precise - a behavioural rather than an exact science, if it is a science at all. And you are properly concerned with - indeed responsible to shareholders for - the long-term prosperity of your individual businesses. Whereas we - much as we would wish to see you all succeed individually - are concerned with stability and sustainable growth, leading to long-term prosperity, in the economy as a whole. Even so, I’d find it surprising if, at the micro-economic level, you, too, did not also see sustainability and long-term profitability as necessarily complementary objectives rather than conflicting objectives.
The more we thought about it, the more we were adamant to take this ‘road less travelled’, premised on a very clear objective which was to test how digitalisation and technology could be leveraged as a driver for inclusive financial services. Our work under Project Greenback 2.0 were not limited to the city of Kota Kinabalu alone. We covered Keningau, Inanam, Tenom, Kunak, Tawau. Some of these areas are remote, and admittedly, only a few of these I have visited myself. Our work also brings us to this beautiful city of Sandakan, where we gather this evening. It is my great pleasure to extend a warm welcome to all of you to the Closing Ceremony of the Project Greenback 2.0 Kota Kinabalu. Our utmost appreciation goes to our guest of honor, Yang Berhormat Dato’ Wira Haji Amiruddin bin Haji Hamzah, Deputy Minister of Finance, for gracing this special event. Yang Berhormat Datuk Zakaria bin Mohd. Edris, Member of Parliament for Libaran, Dr. Firas Raad, Country Manager for Malaysia, the World Bank Group, Ms. Irina Astrakhan, Practice Manager, Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation Global Practice, The World Bank Group, I would like to begin my remarks with two stories recounted to me by my Project Team, to remind us why the work that we have been doing for the past four years under the banner of Project Greenback, is important and meaningful. First, let me share a simple story that tells us about the true reality behind migration. This was during one of the events in Johor Bahru.

Project Greenback 2.0 is indeed an experiment which allows us to seek answers to the questions that we never understood before. These include the motivation behind the migrant workers for not choosing the formal remittance channels and their propensity to use digital financial services. We have made good progress in understanding these issues. But that is not enough. We wish to understand more about how remittances can be further leveraged to fight poverty. This includes developing greater understanding into: How remittances can be linked to insurance and investment products which would help to break the vicious cycle of poverty; How digital payment and remittances can be used as a tool to support the needs of small rural businesses; From education perspective, how to channel remittances to support provision of quality education for poor children; and From gender perspective, how we can use remittances to drive women entrepreneurships particularly in the era of digital economy. Moving forward, these are the areas that we will continue to explore; and in doing so I have no doubt that there will be more opportunities for all of us to work together again. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
People in the informal sector and SMEs who hitherto were unable to open savings accounts with banks due to high minimum deposits and service charges should find the “Tusunge” Savings Product attractive. Ladies and Gentlemen, in the face of an ever growing fear of donor fatigue, public deposits and private capital are likely to be the main source of funding for the microfinance industry to achieve the growth required for it to have significant impact on financial inclusion and poverty reduction across the region. Notwithstanding this, allow me now to reflect on some of the key challenges in the financial sector that all of us must strive to address: (i)  Increasing access to financial services by the SME’s who form the backbone of the economy. This sector provides employment for many people who cannot be absorbed into formal employment. However, increased access to financial services remains a key challenge to this segment. (ii)  Although the Bank of Zambia has licensed 25 Microfinance Institutions, most of them operate along the line of rail providing mainly salary-backed loans. There is need for microfinance institutions to support production by providing finance to agriculture and manufacturing instead of merely providing consumption related salary backed loans. (iii)  There is need for all microfinance institutions to utilise the credit reference bureau at all times. A robust credit reporting apparatus will enable the financial sector to share critical customer information that will lead to lowering the credit risk and ultimately lending rates in the financial sector.

I am hopeful it will be a successful product. With these remarks, it is now my singular honour and privilege to declare CETZAM’s “Tusunge” Savings Product officially launched. I thank you for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Very early on, the National Bank realised that it could defend its autonomy and strengthen confidence in the Swiss franc by adopting rules of conduct. From the start, it strove to adhere to the rules of the gold standard and maintained this policy until the system of fixed exchange rates collapsed in 1973. With the Swiss franc losing its traditional anchor, the SNB was forced to adopt new rules. This was achieved 18 months later with the publication of annual growth targets for the money supply, a strategy which was pursued until 1999. Since 2000, our interest rate decisions have been based on our medium-term inflation forecast and our definition of price stability, which we consider achieved if annual inflation remains below 2%. The second constant in the National Bank’s activity over the past 100 years has been its adherence to the rules of monetary discipline. This strategy has allowed us, as it did our predecessors, to conduct a coherent monetary policy over all these years while shielding our institution from all kinds of demands, both economic and political. 2  BIS Review 71/2007  Willingness to adapt Given the strong disruptions in the international environment in the past 100 years, pursuing a policy of stability and applying the rules of monetary discipline has not been an easy undertaking. Let us not forget the obstacles we encountered in adhering to the rules of the gold standard and the fixed exchange rate system in times of war or during major international upheavals.

Except for the fact that output is not forward-looking – I will come to this in a minute – this is a standard New Keynesian IS curve where the output gap is based on estimates by the European Commission, the short-term interest rate is the three-month Euribor, expected inflation is taken from the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and the natural rate is taken from the euro area estimates by Holston, Laubach and Williams (2016). Clearly, the real interest rate gap is not statistically significant at any reasonable confidence level. This finding holds true if we use actual ex post inflation – specification 2 – instead of expected inflation, or if we include the real interest rate per se, and not as a deviation from the natural rate, as is sometimes suggested, as in specification 3. The financial crisis and the use of non-standard policy measures do not seem to explain the puzzle either: the real interest rate remains insignificant if we restrict the sample to the period before the outbreak of the crisis, specification 4, or if we take the euro area shadow rate as estimated by Wu and Xia (2016) – specification 5 – a measure that attempts to mimic the joint 9 / 14  BIS central bankers' speeches  effects of unconventional policy measures at the zero-lower bound. What I would argue, however, is that the short-term interest rate is not the appropriate measure to use in an empirical IS curve.
The economic tenor in California and the rest of America is weary, if not downright weak: Somos fuerte; los otros son flojos. Since the recent economic recession ended, Texas has been responsible for 48 percent of all the jobs created in America. And yet, the Hispanic population is not participating in our economic prosperity in proportion to its weight in the Texas census. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The unemployment rate among Latinos here is substantially higher than it is for non-Hispanic Texans. Hispanics earn 36 percent less in hourly wages than non-Hispanic whites; median household income of Latino-headed households in Texas is about 60 percent of median household income of non-Hispanic households. For the U.S. as a whole, Latino-headed households earn about 73 percent of non-Hispanic white household income. Pia Orrenius and our other economists are hard at work in deciphering what accounts for the differences between the economic status of Texas Hispanics and Latinos elsewhere in the U.S. Already, one factor is clear: Hispanic educational achievement in Texas is abysmal. In Texas, as anywhere else in the United States and in all capitalist societies, “you earn what you learn.” Every study known to man, and plain common sense, tell you that income is directly correlated to educational attainment. High school graduates earn significantly more than high school dropouts; a college degree results in greater lifetime earnings than a high school degree; the highest income groups are those with graduate degrees.

  In Texas, 38 percent of the population is Hispanic versus 16.3 percent in the U.S.    “Jose” has been the top male baby name in Texas every year since 1996, when it replaced “Michael” and “Christopher.” We are the only state in the union with a Latino baby name ranked number one. Those are some basic facts. Here are some others for you to consider: For the past 20 years, the Eleventh Federal Reserve District – in which 96 percent of the economic output is generated by Texas – has outgrown the rest of the Federal Reserve districts and the United States by significant margins. We have grown our real – or inflationadjusted output (real state gross domestic product) – by 3.6 percent compounded over 20 years, whereas the rest of the U.S. (real gross domestic product) has grown at 2.5 percent compounded; annual job growth in Texas has outpaced the nation by 1 percentage point a year; population growth within Texas has compounded over the past two decades by 2 percent per annum, versus 1.1 percent for the rest of the nation. We now have the second-largest Congressional delegation in the country behind California. But the growth dynamic here is vibrant, whereas that of California is stagnant. This is why we are picking up population and Congressional seats, while the recent U.S. census apportioned no additional seats to California. In sum, we are a vibrant and strong economy.
Sabine Lautenschläger: Navigating uncertainty – governance, risk management and leveraged finance Speech by Ms Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, at the 17th Annual Risk Management Convention by the Global Association of Risk Professionals, New York City, 1 March 2016. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, It is a great pleasure to be here today, as it gives me a welcome opportunity to exchange ideas on risks and risk management with high-ranking risk managers. Discussing topics of risk management is doubtless necessary given the current macroeconomic environment. In 2008, the financial crisis turned the Great Moderation into the Great Recession. Today, almost eight years later, we still live in challenging times. The Great Recession has now turned into the Great Uncertainty. Quite recently, financial markets experienced another flare-up of that uncertainty. Share prices of European banks, for instance, have been extremely volatile. On some days, we saw prices rise or fall in double digits.

A report released shortly after I came to the New York Fed showed that the typical New York State community college engages with more than 100 local employers, spanning every industry sector.4 More recently, the New York Fed hosted an event that explored ways to advance economic prosperity in rural areas.5 Many great insights were shared, including a framework for workforce development programs that contained four principles: 1) fashioning a strategy around a community's assets; 2) designing programs that are adaptable; 3) including traditionally marginalized groups in decision-making; and 4) bringing together community, business, and government leaders-like you are doing today. 2/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Conclusion Developing career-building programs that meet the needs of local employers and are accessible to job seekers is critical to bridging the skills gap. Collaboration is a key component of any successful program. By joining together, we can advance the economic resilience of rural areas like Columbia and Greene Counties-and strengthen our Jenga tower. 1 Columbia-Greene LWDA Local Plan, July 1, 2021 – June 30, 2025. 2 Office of the New York State Comptroller, Availability, Access and Affordability:  Understanding Broadband Challenges in New York State, September 2021. 3 Investing in America's Workforce, a Federal Reserve System initiative in collaboration  with the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University, the Ray Marshall Center at the University of Texas at Austin, and the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research (2019).
The map had been gradually filled in, revealing a more complex and bumpy economic landscape than had been depicted in our initial outlines, perhaps most apparent in the evolution of our inflation forecast. The stance of monetary policy during the Covid period has been guided by that evolving economic outlook. In the initial phase of the crisis the outlook was very uncertain, but the direction for policy was clear: the priority was to support economic activity and employment, both with the goal of returning inflation sustainably to the MPC’s 2% target, and to provide a bridge through the Covid crisis and minimise the potential for longer-term damage or ‘scarring’ to the economy’s potential. To that end the MPC deployed its full range of policy tools in March 2020, cutting Bank Rate to 10 basis points, launching a new Term Funding Scheme with additional incentives for SME lending, and announcing additional very substantial programmes of asset purchases, first in March, and again in June and November 2020. As the economic outlook became somewhat clearer, the focus of monetary policy also evolved. While our ultimate goal remained to return inflation to target by bridging through the Covid crisis, our priority shifted to ensuring that the economy remained on track and that we were not blown off course as further risks crystallised.

Other costs have also continued to rise, reflecting an underlying theme of supply constraints and bottlenecks: the oil price has now reached $ per barrel, non-oil commodity prices have continued to rise, and the sustained rise in shipping costs that we have seen since 2020 has also continued. And those cost pressures appear to be passing through to manufactured goods. That said, some of the most extreme price pressures, for instance in the lumber futures market, do now appear to be easing. 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  7  Table 1: Estimates of Q2 economic performance Nov 2020 MPR  May 2021 MPR  Latest nowcast/data  GDP growth (% YoY)  20¼  21½  22¾  CPI inflation (% YoY)  1.7  1.7  2.1  Private sector regular AWE (% YoY)  4¾  7¼  8  When thinking about how these latest developments might affect the economic outlook, it’s important to keep things in perspective. The projected GDP growth rates shown in Table 1 compared with a year ago show just how unusual this period is economically, with growth of 22¾% expected in 2021Q2 relative to the trough in activity a year ago . And relative to that, the forecast revisions between the November 2020 MPR and the staff’s latest ‘nowcast’ for GDP growth to 2021Q2, while noteworthy, are relatively small. Nevertheless in the near term the signal is clearly to the upside.
Mr. George looks at the prospects for the UK economy and developments towards European Monetary Union Speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mr. E.A.J. George, at the Liverpool and District Bankers’ Institute Bi-Annual Dinner in Liverpool on 12/3/97. It is a very enjoyable - and vital - part of our job at the Bank of England to keep in touch with what is going on around the country. And we work quite hard at it - through visits like this one; through our non-executive directors who have business interests in the regions and through our network of regional agents. Now the purpose of these contacts is to help us understand the reality behind our precious monetary and economic statistics, and to help us understand what is pre-occupying you. The economic reality I would say is not at all bad. Looking back over the longer term, I detect an important change in attitudes in this country: where before people - both employers and employees - tended to look inwards and backwards, seeking to protect what they had had, now, it seems to me, they are increasingly looking outwards and forwards to new opportunities. It is a fundamental change. And over the past four years or so it has been complemented by a more stable macro-economic environment than most of us can remember in our professional life time. Putting these together has brought us consistently low inflation; steady and sustained growth; and gradually falling unemployment.

The picture is rather different if the UK were to opt out of monetary union - at least for the time being. In that case the euro will be a foreign currency in the UK, and businesses, where appropriate, will need to cope with it from the 1 January 1999 just as they cope now with transactions and contracts denominated in deutschemarks, dollars, yen and the like. But the huge difference between the ‘in’ and the ‘out’ scenario will be that notes and coins would not be introduced in this country if we are an ‘out’, so that for most of us life would go on very much as normal. Mr. Chairman, I have dwelt on the practical side of monetary union very briefly this evening, because I fear that the practicalities may be overlooked in the passion of the debate about the principle. But in my youth - which seems a very long time ago now - I was a boy scout, brought up with the motto “Be Prepared”. It is vital in this context that we are indeed prepared, whatever the outcome, and the Bank is determined to do all that we can to ensure that we are. And provided we have properly prepared ourselves I do not believe that monetary union need hold great terrors for this country whichever way the decision goes when the time comes.