samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
We have done so more or less right from the very start, even if, when the inflation-targeting regime was new, there was particular reason to emphasise that low and stable inflation should be prioritised. However, in the present framework, the considerations that we actually make as regards both inflation and the real economy have become more apparent. However, a number of problems still remain. For example, it is not obvious which measure of the real economy monetary policy is to stabilise nor how best to calculate the trend to be stabilised around. Quite different estimates can be made, not only in terms of the present and the future, but also of past events (Figure 3). However, it remains clear that intellectual progress has been made and that developments have moved forwards. So far, relatively few central banks have gone so far as to publish forecasts of their policy rates, as the Riksbank does. But it is clear that the manner in which monetary policy is conducted has developed in most parts of the world and is presently more open and clear than was the case fifteen to twenty years ago.

For central banks and other economic forecasters, the challenge will be to attempt to make the best assessment possible of the manner in which potential output and growth may be impacted by both the crisis and the regulations resulting from it. For the authorities that are to design the regulations, the challenge will lie in finding an appropriate balance: on one hand, the regulations will need to be sufficient to reduce the risk of financial crises – which can cause potential output to fall. However, on the other hand, they should not be so comprehensive as to impede the financial sector unnecessarily, thus risking dampening potential growth. In other words, it is a matter of finding just the right level of regulation. Figure 5 Potential output with and without crises Potential output Without regulations, with crises With regulations, without crises  Time  Somewhat simplified, it could be said that this is a matter of making a choice between two development paths for potential output (Figure 5). In one, development is interrupted now and again by crises, during which potential output falls, but between these, growth is relatively strong. In the other, development is even, but growth may be slightly lower than is the case between crises in the first development path. It is not obvious which development provides the best welfare effects over the long term, but it is clear that general opinion at present is that we should attempt to reduce the risk of crises and abrupt halts.
The first relates to the institutional relationship between the central bank and the government and the second to the multiple objectives assigned to the central banks. All the evidence points to improved long-term inflation performance when monetary policymakers are freed from institutional constraints that hamper their freedom of maneuver and given full operational independence. Such independence is best achieved by enshrining it in an institutional framework that provides for legal independence from the government, with accountability for achieving a clearly defined mandate focused on price stability. Few Asian central banks yet enjoy full legal independence, though most now have greater de facto independence than they once had. Fixed, or partially fixed exchange rate regimes, of course, also constrain the independence of monetary policy. As capital accounts become progressively more open, few countries can sustain over time a commitment to exchange rate stability without risking price stability. Eventually central banks will run up against limits on their capacity to sterilize the effects of exchange market intervention designed to limit the pace and extent of appreciation of the exchange rate. Although measured inflation in emerging Asian economies remains relatively low, the pace of credit growth and the behavior of asset prices provide some evidence of a growing tension among competing objectives. The longer this policy conflict persists, the greater the distortions building up in the economy, the greater the risk of future inflation and the greater the risk of a bumpy future.

In emerging Asia, two key areas where there is the need and opportunity for further progress are in the financial system and in the monetary policy framework. The financial sector plays an important role in the flexibility and adaptability of economies to change, in the resilience of economies and in the capacity of the monetary authorities to respond to adverse shocks to asset prices or demand. Although much has been achieved in Asia over the past decade, as the damage inflicted by the crises has been repaired, further reform will be important to the capacity of these economies to innovate and grow and to live more comfortably with openness to capital flows. This requires stronger banks and more developed capital markets. Thus far, we have seen more progress on the former than the latter, but both are important and there remains considerable scope for broadening and deepening capital markets in emerging Asia. The extent of financial innovation in the industrial economies makes it possible for Asian countries to take advantage of huge  BIS Review 65/2007  3  improvements in the efficiency of financial intermediation. Embrace of these reforms will help ensure that high levels of domestic savings are deployed more efficiently, that companies and financial institutions are able to manage risks more effectively and that the financial system is more resilient in the face of future stress. Monetary policy regimes in much of Asia are burdened by two different types of constraints on independence.
The design features Turner’s self-portrait, from 1799, alongside one of his most eminent paintings, The Fighting Temeraire.2 This painting is a tribute to the HMS Temeraire – which battled with distinction during Nelson’s victory at Trafalgar in 1805 – and an elegy to the decline of sail, showing the great warship being pulled by a steam tug to her last berth to be broken up for scrap. The novelist William Makepeace  Thackeray called it “as grand a painting as ever figured on the walls of any academy, or came from the easel of any painter”.3 The public clearly agrees, voting it Britain’s greatest painting in a BBC poll in 2005. 4 The Fighting Temeraire exemplifies Turner’s innovative use of light, shade, colour and tone. These  contributions to the visual arts are captured in the quote – ‘Light is therefore colour’ – which is from an 1818 lecture by Turner. Turner rarely signed his paintings, so the signature on the banknote was taken from his will. That is fitting because, in a codicil to that testament, he bequeathed his paintings to the nation, and in doing so made a significant contribution to British society. Few Turners are locked away in private collections or spread to the four winds. The vast majority are free for the British public to see across some of our greatest galleries. The note references several of these galleries.

Light is therefore Colour: Remarks at the launch of the new £ banknote Speech given by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England  Turner Contemporary Gallery, Margate 10 October 2019  I would like to thank Clare Macallan for her assistance in preparing these remarks and Lizzie Levett and Lisa Young for providing background information. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  It is a pleasure to be back at Turner Contemporary in Margate to unveil the new £ banknote featuring JMW Turner. Banknote character Turner was a frequent visitor to Margate, drawn by “the skies over Thanet”, which he held to be “the loveliest in all Europe”. The East Kent coast inspired more than 100 of his works and this gallery stands on the site of Mrs Booth’s seafront guesthouse, where Turner stayed whenever he visited. Turner’s contribution to art extends well beyond this stretch of shoreline. He was precocious – exhibiting at the Royal Academy at 15, and becoming an Academician at 24 – as well as prolific, producing more than 550 oil paintings, 2,000 watercolours, and 30,000 sketches and drawings. Turner is rightly celebrated for his unique ability to capture light and highly varied atmospheric effects through use of vibrant colour and flowing brushwork; he often went to extremes in pursuit of the visceral artistic experience. His paintings blaze with the heat of the sun, shimmer in moonshine, and rumble under the weight of gathering storm clouds. These works transformed the field of landscape art.
3  For example, estimates from term structure models such as those discussed in Meldrum, A and Roberts-Sklar, M (2014), ‘Long-run  priors for term structure models’, Bank of England Working Paper 575. 3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  3  The lower demand for investment accounts for nearly two-fifths of the reduction. An ongoing decline in the price of investment goods, less public investment and systematically higher credit spreads account for the reduction in desired investment. And, alongside these changes in the levels of the supply of saving and the demand for investment, there has also been a change in the underlying return on investment. Expectations of a lower rate of real global growth accounted for another fifth of the reduction in the trend real rate of interest. 4  Three caveats are important at this point. The first is that the Bank work estimated the reduction in the global average trend real rate and the impact of changes in the level of global savings and investment. To the extent that global capital markets are not perfectly integrated and that there is an element of home bias in the financial allocation of savings, changes in the national supply of savings and demand for investment matter too. For example, developments in UK demographics would suggest less of a reduction in the trend real rate here than seen globally. But overall, the evidence suggests a very significant proportion of the movement in UK trend rates reflects developments elsewhere.

We are about a month and a half behind schedule only on this issue. The consultations that the Minister of Finance and I had last week show that the signing of such a Memorandum is still possible but this will urgently require at least two things: firm political support and a clear mandate of the central bank governor. The political decision on this issue comes with a price. Over the last months, and especially the last weeks, markets have been giving us very clear and warning signals. The price of Bulgaria's newly issued debt has been rising at an unprecedentedly high rate. This implies an enormous additional financial weight in the medium term, which  3/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  more acutely than before poses the question about the terms of funding Bulgaria's budget and economy. What is the connection with the topic under discussion? The connection is direct. If you read credit rating agencies' announcements, you will see that the key factor for Bulgaria to get a rating upgrade, i.e. for improved terms of its funding, is the successful implementation of the euro area accession process. As a reference point, after the decision on Croatia's accession was made, two credit rating agencies upgraded its credit rating by two notches even before Croatia actually joined the euro area. Thus Croatia's credit rating, which before the decision was one notch lower than Bulgaria's, now is one notch higher than Bulgaria.
In addition, for those who opt for deeper information and knowledge, our website provides didactic tools to better understand aspects of economy and finance which affect the life of all citizens, like: what is economic growth; labour market, circulating flow, how do financial crises spread; what is competition, etc. Also, the elective module “Personal Finance in Your Hands", from some years now integrated in the high school teaching curricula, introduces to students the world of personal finance, informs and shape their needed skill to manage money in a more profitable way. This textbook is supplied and allocated for free to all high schools which elect to study it. It is accompanied with a guideline to teachers of economy subject. A similar approach has been adopted for younger children. Hence, the teaching package tailored for the financial education of pupils in class I, II and III of secondary schools, addresses issues, as: the difference between needs and desires; where does money come from and for what does it serve; the right management of money and savings, etc. This package may be used in free classes; classes dedicated to school projects; or in intra-subject projects. All that I mentioned above, makes clear that the Bank of Albania assesses that financial education should start at an early age. This affirmative sentence constitutes the philosophy of our programmes. The Bank of Albania aims at building up the communication bridges, awarenessraising and financial knowledge empowering to the new generation.

And that lies four square within the Bank of England’s mission to promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom, Muslim and non-Muslim alike. Global growth in Islamic Finance Islamic finance is a global success story, with assets of $ trillion in 2019 (Table 1). That’s 11% higher than a year earlier, and fully a third bigger than in 2015. Table 1: Size and composition of Islamic Finance Services Industry $ 2019)  *  *Gulf Co-operation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). Source: Islamic Financial Services Industry Stability Report 20202  Three quarters of those Islamic finance assets are held by banks – and are large enough to play a  1  For a summary of these principles, see eg https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2017/islamic-banksand-central-banking.pdf?la=en&hash=15D94BD65C2EFA6962989D10E21543B7B7013C1C. 2 https://www.ifsb.org/download.php?id=5724&lang=English&pg=/index.php. 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  2  systemic role in thirteen countries.3 There’s also a nascent Islamic insurance industry (takaful) – and a much larger capital market, anchored around the growing stock of sukuk4 issued by companies and governments (Chart 1), and over 1,500 Shari’ah compliant investment funds. Chart 1: Global sukuk issuance and stock outstanding  Source: Islamic Financial Services Industry Stability Report 20202  The role of the UK and the Bank of England in supporting Islamic Finance So far, so impressive.
The potent medicine has worked. Growth in all the major advanced economies has gained a firm footing. Unemployment in major economies is lower than before the financial crisis. Price and wage inflation is rising from low levels. The need for monetary accommodation is thus diminishing. Global interest rates have bottomed out. Policy rates in the US, UK and Canada were raised in the course of 2017, with more central banks likely to follow suit in 2018. The Federal Reserve has begun to unwind its bond holdings. Other central banks have tapered their asset purchases. The global interest rate rise will probably be gradual (Chart 11). After a long period of very low rates, the effect of higher interest rates on the economy is uncertain. It is also uncertain how quickly wage and price inflation will rise as activity gains momentum. 1) Chart 11 Policy rates. Percent 8  8  Current policy rate 2)  Expected policy rate 2021  6  Historical average 1990 – 2007  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  –2  –2 US  Euro area  UK  1) In the chart, the policy rate for the US refers to the mid−point of the target range for the federal funds rate. For the euro area, historical policy rates are calculated using the interest rate on the ECB’s main refinancing operations from 1999 to 2007. Before 1999, the Bundesbank’s discount rate is used.

When China, India and Eastern Europe joined the global market economy, the labour force of countries participating in world trade doubled.9  Norges Bank Economic perspectives 15 february 2018  The result is that workers in advanced economies face competition from new groups, which pushes down wage growth and affects the income distribution between labour and capital. Lower unionisation levels have also weakened workers’ bargaining power. Since 1980, unionisation in the OECD area has fallen from around 35 percent to below 20 percent. Low wage growth feeds through to prices for goods and services. Many firms also face competition from firms that have relocated production to lower-cost countries. In addition, online shopping reduces the advantage of physical proximity to customers, narrowing the scope for passing on higher costs to prices. Globalisation thus restrains the general rise in prices. Cheap imports from low-cost countries have long been an important source of low inflation in advanced economies. In Norway, prices for clothing and footwear have fallen by almost half over the past 20 years. The price effects of globalisation have not been exhausted. A rising number of low-cost countries are competing on the global stage. So far, global competition has had less influence on services prices than on goods prices (Chart 8). However, global trade in services has increased recently. This may lead to renewed downward pressure on prices. Chart 8 Goods and services inflation. Average annual change 2000 – 2017.
We did it because inflation is too high, but especially core inflation at 4,3%: there is for sure a significant energy and supply component in the euro area inflation; but it is also becoming broader and more domestic, and this is the field where we have to act. And second, we clearly show our determination to bring inflation back to 2% in the medium term: this is not only our target, it is our commitment towards European citizens; our will and our capacity to deliver on our mandate cannot be subject to any doubt whatsoever. That said, yesterday’s significant move sometimes raises two questions: - what about the next move? Let me be clear: we have our hands completely free. Nobody should speculate that this will be the magnitude of the next step – we did not create a new “jumbo habit” –; nor that we simply must emulate other  Page 2 sur 3 important Central banks. We obviously go in the same direction as them, but not necessarily at the same speed or with the same final level: because the nature of inflation has its differences on both sides of the Atlantic, the monetary answer has its differences too. - and this brings a second frequent question: what about the destination of the journey?

Eurofi – Prague, 9 September 2022 Mobilization of the Eurosystem against inflation Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France  Page 1 sur 3 Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted to be talking to you today at this Eurofi edition, although I very much regret that I cannot be in Prague in person today. I extend my warmest thanks to David Wright and Didier Cahen for organising this event. Let me first express my heartfelt sympathy to our British friends: the Queen brought a sense of duty and a sense of stability which will hopefully remain a powerful lesson in this very volatile period. These are indeed times of extremely high uncertainty and difficulty. The European and French economies will face next year a significant slowdown, and we cannot exclude a limited recession. Let me quote, as I did some days ago in Jackson Hole,i two compatriots to give us some light: first, a philosopher – Voltaire – who said that “uncertainty is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd”ii; second, an economist – Olivier Blanchard – with the following words “monetary policy must be closer to art when it is frequently confronted to new, poorly anticipated and poorly understood, contingencies”iii Well, between art and science, how did we deal yesterday with the present uncertainty? We decided to frontload on our monetary policy normalisation.
It assigned to the Central Bank the main objective of pursuing price stability. The Bank was granted instrument independence to pursue that main objective, its financial independence was enhanced and the Act included clear provisions on transparency and accountability. The Act also stated that the Bank should promote an efficient and safe financial system, including payments systems domestically and with foreign countries. In addition to price stability, the Bank was, in other words, given a clear mandate to concern itself with financial stability. An inflation targeting framework was adopted at practically the same time with a joint declaration of the Government and the Central Bank which set a target for inflation of a 2½% twelve-month rise in the CPI. The framework imposes strong demands on the professional capacity of the Central Bank. The Bank regularly publishes a macroeconomic forecast and inflation forecast, with an associated inflation report. The inflation forecast provides the foundation for the inflation targeting policy. In its quarterly Monetary Bulletin, the Bank publishes a detailed analysis of current economic and monetary developments and prospects. It also presents the rationale behind the decisions by the Board of Governors to change or not to change interest rates, as well as signalling the monetary policy intentions for the period ahead. In these endeavours, the Bank seeks to be as transparent as possible. When the inflation target was adopted, the economy was quite unbalanced. It had boomed during the second half of the 1990s.

The most recent example was ordering the more detailed material for assessing monetary policy which the Riksbank published about a week ago. I shall return to this assessment later. But first I would like to say a few words about current monetary policy. Our most recent assessment Our most recent interest rate decision was not an easy one. There is considerable uncertainty, for instance, on which direction international economic activity will take. And, as you are aware, we also had slightly differing opinions within the Executive Board. However, we must nevertheless make a decision and the majority of us reached the assessment that the repo rate should be raised to 4.25 per cent. We are forecasting that the repo rate will remain around this level over the coming year. This type of interest rate development will contribute to inflation falling back and being around the 2 per cent target a couple of years ahead, at the same time as production and employment develop in a balanced manner. Different forces are pulling in different directions In our decision we weighed together many different factors. A lot has happened; both events that could push up inflation and events that could hold it back. On the one side were conditions implying a higher interest rate. Inflation rose rapidly in 2007 and we are expecting it to remain high over the coming year. Expected inflation has also risen and cost pressures are high. Economic activity in Sweden remains good and the labour market is strong.