samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
If these three steps are still insufficient, ex post contributions from the institutions authorised in the affected Member States will be used. However, if such contributions are not immediately accessible, including for reasons relating to financial stability, the Board may exercise its power to contract borrowings or other forms of support for the Fund, or to make temporary transfers between national compartments. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Banking Union and European Integration I mentioned before that the Banking Union complementing Monetary Union will have farreaching implications for European integration in general as it implies a vast sharing of sovereignty. European construction is still under the grips of the Jean Monnet functional method of integration: at each new reform step, other become logical and pressing. Regarding Banking Union itself, the other element that should complement centralised supervision and bank resolution in a banking union concerns a centralized deposit insurance scheme. Such a scheme would have several benefits. It would be commensurate to the centralized supervisory regime, and ensure that decisions that are taken on a centralized level affect depositors in all countries in the same way, thus ensuring a level playing-field. Depositors would be treated in a uniform way across countries, independently of their location and the location of the bank to whom they have entrusted their savings.13 What was achieved in December 2013, when the co-legislators agreed on the Deposit Guarantee Scheme Directive (DGSD) was only a little part of what in the end will be necessary.

Specifically, it is: “the uncouth idol of this deity at Puri in Orissa, annually dragged in procession on an enormous car”, crushing everything in its path. But Hindu or Muslim or whatever your faith, while one might consider Texans to on occasion be uncouth, there is no denying that our economy is an enormous job-creating car that enables and advances its devotees rather than crushing them. A job is the road to dignity and to the prosperity of any people, and Texas has become the most prosperous of states. Here is a graph depicting job growth in Texas versus the other large states that typically have drawn Indian and other investment and immigration:  For over two decades, we have outperformed the rest of the United States in job creation by a factor of more than 2 to 1. Over 23 years, only nine net new jobs have been created for every 100 that existed in New York in 1990, whereas in Texas, 66 jobs have been created. We have been especially prolific in creating jobs since the Great Recession waylaid the world at the end of 2007. Today, employment in Texas is 8.6 percent above its prerecession peak. The nation as a whole is 0.5 percent – zero point five percent – above its previous peak. However, if you take Texas out of the U.S. economy, statistically speaking, you see  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  that the U.S. ex-Texas still has not caught up to its prerecession employment levels.
In just over three months’ time, we have got more than two million registrations for FPS. Another important development is the promotion of virtual banking. We have received about 30 applications for our virtual banking licences and we hope to begin granting the first batch of licences within this quarter. In a short span of a few years, we have gone through a very high speed journey into Fintech, and I am sure that there is a lot that we can share and discuss in the later panel on new finances. 11. Another exciting development is green finance. The French government issued the first sovereign green bonds in 2017, which set an important market benchmark. Hong Kong is also actively promoting its green finance platform. In fact, in the first three quarters in 2018, 28 green bonds were issued in Hong Kong, with an aggregate size of over $ billion. The HKSAR Government is launching a $ billion Government Green Bond Programme and the first green bond will be issued later this year. With France being a forerunner in green finance and the third largest global issuer of green bonds, we look forward to sharing experiences and collaborating with Paris in this area. 12. This is a quick overview of the recent developments in Hong Kong and the new opportunities ahead. I am sure the industry experts here today would have a lot more to share on these topics in the panel sessions, and I hope you will have a very fruitful discussion. 13. Thank you.

40 On MAS’ end, we will continue our financial education efforts as an integral part of our regulatory and supervisory work. These will encompass heightened surveillance, investigation and enforcement actions with other authorities. 41 It leaves me to reiterate that investors should always seek to understand the issuer and product before investing in them. Remember to “Ask. Check. Confirm”. There will be a short halfminute video on this at the end of my remarks. Do also visit the pop-up exhibition booth outside the theatre to learn more about the resources available to help you. 42 Thank you for your attention. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches
Projections for imported price inflation may therefore be said to be characterised more by Knight uncertainty for a period ahead. Monetary policy under uncertainty was one of the many topics discussed in the report Norges Bank Watch 2003, where our policy response pattern and communication were evaluated in the light of the theory of monetary policy under uncertainty. This was useful input and constructive criticism which we will keep in mind in our future work. Norges Bank Watch 2003 points out, for example, that we should make a clearer distinction between additive uncertainty and multiplicative uncertainty. This distinction is most clearly reflected in our economic models. The uncertainty associated with the exogenous variables is called additive uncertainty. Examples of additive uncertainty are add factors in our economic models and other exogenous factors such as fiscal policy and the oil price. Uncertainty about the actual functioning of the economy may, however, lead to multiplicative uncertainty. Multiplicative uncertainty often involves uncertainty about the structural parameters in the model, such as the effect of the interest rate on demand and the exchange rate and the slope of the short-term Phillips curve.

BIS Review 6/2004  3  The choice of horizon for monetary policy implicitly provides some information about the central bank’s loss function.8 A central bank that places considerable emphasis on inflation and little emphasis on the real economy will choose a short horizon. A central bank that places considerable emphasis on the real economy will choose a long horizon. Behind the choice of a horizon of normally two years lies a perception of how the interest rate affects developments in inflation and output, and the central bank’s trade-off between variations in these two variables. According to theories on optimal monetary policy, the horizon should vary and partly depend on the size and duration of disturbances to the economy. For some types of disturbances, such as demand shocks, the optimal choice may be to achieve the inflation target relatively rapidly. For other types of disturbances, such as cost shocks, a longer horizon may be optimal, provided that confidence in monetary policy is not in jeopardy. Even though, according to the theory, the horizon should be variable, there are some advantages to maintaining a fairly firm horizon that have not been as prominent in the literature. It is crucial that the public and market participants understand how the central bank sets the interest rate in order to contribute to confidence and credibility in monetary policy. According to the principle normally followed by Norges Bank, the interest rate is set with a view to achieving inflation of 2½ per cent at the two-year horizon.
Advantage should be taken of these initiatives to adopt specific and ambitious measures that entail deep-seated changes in the functioning of our labour market. We stand at a pivotal juncture for our future, a point at which it is vital to radically change certain things so that Spain may continue to converge on the core European countries. Some of these reforms may require sacrifices, and it would therefore be best to have as broad a consensus as possible. The effective adoption of these reforms is crucial for the economy in general, but particularly so for the financial system. And if anything has been highlighted by the current global crisis, it is the close relationship between economic growth and the strength of the banking system. Two years on from the onset of the turmoil in summer 2007, most Spanish credit institutions continue to show considerable soundness. Unlike in many other countries, this has meant that practically no public aid has had to be used to bail out banks, which has prevented adding a further burden to the problems stemming from the recession. But the relationship between the economy and the financial system also works in the opposite direction and, evidently, if the necessary measures for reactivating employment growth within a reasonable time frame are not adopted, bad debts will continue to mount and there will be more financial institutions facing difficulty in providing the financing needed for economic recovery. That our banking system has proven reasonably resilient during the international financial crisis is due to various factors.

Besides, credit deceleration, as long as it takes place in an orderly manner, is justified, after the recent rise in private debt ratios (households and non-financial corporations). In this respect, I would like to point out that France's debt ratio is the highest of the major European countries at 147% of GDP in Q3 2022, compared to 119% on average in the euro area. This leaves the third major economic agent: general government as a whole. France's public debt ratio is not only 20 percentage points higher than that of the euro area as a whole (113% of GDP compared with 93% in Q3 2022),1 but it is not decreasing, unlike that of the other major countries of the euro area. Since energy prices are declining, we must now begin to rapidly reduce support measures, while targeting them at those who need them most. Tariff shields may have been useful in the short term to cushion the energy shock, but they cannot alleviate it altogether. Indeed, a lasting victory against inflation cannot be achieved by fiscal measures, but by monetary policy and by strengthening our productive supply. More broadly, the response to this crisis, to this new world, lies above all in a major effort to adapt.
Second, the first tightening move might itself provoke another taper tantrum characterized by higher bond yields and tighter financial market conditions that could be sufficiently strong to impede the economic recovery. My judgment was that these risks were manageable. First, downside forecast errors are certainly possible, but the U.S. economy appears to be on sufficiently sound footing to withstand downside shocks better than was the case a few years ago. Second, I felt that the likelihood of a substantial tightening in financial market conditions due to lift-off was relatively low, in part, because the rate hike was widely anticipated. Market conditions had adjusted quite smoothly – except for some strains observed in the high-yield debt market – as market participants placed higher odds of tightening in the weeks preceding the December FOMC meeting. This reinforced that conclusion. A large market reaction would have been a surprise given that this was one of the most anticipated monetary policy events in history. Also, the policy action needs to be viewed in context. While this decision was the first upward adjustment BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  to short-term rates in nearly 10 years, the actual move was small – only 25 basis points – which, by itself, should have only a very mild impact on the overall trajectory of the economy. As we noted in the FOMC statement and as Chair Yellen pointed out in her December press conference, even after this rate hike, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative.

In this facility, a number of financial entities, such as money market funds, that cannot hold reserves at the Federal Reserve can lend funds overnight to the Federal Reserve against the Fed’s Treasury collateral and receive the overnight RRP rate – currently 25 basis points. The overnight RRP provides these institutions with an alternative investment if the interest rate offered by banks is unattractive. Consequently, these financial  2  In this arrangement, the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet was mainly driven by the amount of currency in circulation. As the amount of currency in circulation increased, this drained reserves from the banking system. The Federal Reserve offset this by increasing its holdings of Treasury securities. 3  The Federal Reserve gained the authority to pay interest on reserves earlier as part of the Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act of 2006; that legislation authorized the Federal Reserve Banks to begin payment of interest on reserves in 2011. As part of the TARP legislation, Congress moved up the date at which the Federal Reserve could exercise that authority to October 2008. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  entities should be unwilling to lend funds to banks and others at lower rates than the overnight RRP rate. The overnight RRP rate should act, therefore, as a floor on money market rates. As I noted earlier, the tools are working as anticipated.
And considering that this $ trillion represents perhaps as little as one-fifth of the amount of ready liquidity in the U.S. financial system – that being held not just on deposit at the Fed Banks but also by nonfinancial corporations, private equity funds, other investors and households – there is a lot of inflationary tinder available should the Fed mismanage its exit from the hyper-accommodative policy we have pursued and augmented with QE3. Thus, only time will reveal the efficacy of the policy we have pursued and whether the risks that I and other observers (among them my mentor, Paul Volcker) fret over are as substantial, or whether we have made much ado about nothing. My former colleague, the wonderful ex-banker and much-admired Fed Governor Betsy Duke, was quoted on Oct. 28 in The Washington Post as saying this about QE3: “It’s still important to see what the ultimate costs are going to be. You can’t really judge those until it’s completely unwound.” 4 Betsy is spot on. Channeling Shakespeare In June of last year, I gave a speech in Toronto in which I likened the post-zero-bound monetary policy to a Shakespearean drama with five acts, suggesting we were then in the last scene of the third act of a play titled “The Grand Experiment in Modern Monetarism.” 5 I posited we will not know until the final act whether the play will end felicitously or otherwise. I thought I would update that analogy here today.

But they entail several risks, and they could lead to significant concentration effects among a few dominant private networks: these would in practice “re-intermediate”, but without the trust and regulation associated with the architecture of the monetary and financial edifice that we – public and private players – have built together over a period of decades. In the face of this major challenge, we need to both innovate and regulate. For some, the conjunction between the two should be an “or”, considering them mutually exclusive: innovation in the form of a central bank digital currency would be an alternative, indeed the only alternative, to the unchecked development of decentralised finance. For me, the conjunction is “and”: the two pillars clearly work together to foster sustainable innovation; this is why the EU should at once (i) adopt the MiCA regulation on crypto assets in the first half of this year, (ii) prepare for a Central Bank Digital Currency, a e-euro, by 2026. But the worst conjunction would be “neither, nor”: revolutions always happen quickly, and we are at risk of neither innovating nor regulating in time. In that case we would have failed in our historical mission and jeopardised centuries of work building up confidence in our money. Page 8 sur 9 2/ Let me now turn to the second major transformation underway, the ecological transition, which is an absolute necessity at the global level even if Europe here lies ahead. Climate change is accelerating.
That the full impact of the rise in costs has not passed through to inflation owes something, I believe, to wariness amongst central bankers of their being able, given uncertainty about the underlying shocks, to calibrate policy with sufficient precision to bring about such a neat but vitally important distinction between first-round and second-round effects; let alone of their being able to communicate such a strategy to the public, the business community and financial markets. Textbook orthodoxy might perhaps have been more compelling if the rise in energy prices had been both sharp and caused purely by interruptions to, or constraints on, the supply of energy. But when, as over the past couple of years, the rise in costs was partly the consequence of increased global demand, and the price rise drawn out, the wariness in fully accommodating the first round effects was, I think, tangible, and reasonable. UK monetary policy That has been the backdrop to my own approach to monetary policy over the past year or so. The policy stance has needed to be set and explained in the context of cost shocks and demand  BIS Review 44/2007  1  conditions, placing a premium on clarity of communication about monetary strategy. 1 I have judged that to be a delicate exercise given recent and prospective volatility in headline inflation. This thinking informed my vote against an increase in Bank Rate in January.

SPEECH  Jointly shaping Europe’s tomorrow Introductory remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly, 21 September 2020 Frankfurt am Main, 21 September 2020 Dear President Schäuble, Dear President Ferrand, Honourable Members of the Franco-German Assembly, I would like to thank you very warmly for inviting me to join you today. As President of the European Central Bank and a French citizen living and working in Germany, it is an honour to speak at this historic forum. This parliamentary assembly is an embodiment of the special relationship between our two countries and their commitment to European integration. I find it essential that the ECB constantly engages in two-way communication, especially with citizens’ representatives. We need to make sure that the ECB’s voice is heard by the people and that the people’s voice is heard by the ECB. This is why events like today’s are so important for me. Our regular interlocutor is the European Parliament, to whom we are accountable under the Treaty for our monetary policy tasks. Transnational settings like this one give us a further chance to look past nation-specific concerns as we discuss Europe’s future. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is a crisis of unprecedented magnitude. Many of you will recognise the famous words of Jean Monnet, one of the founding fathers of the European project, who said: “Europe will be forged in crises and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises”[1] . This pandemic has proven him right once more.
It has been described as the world’s first set of professional standards written for private banks by private banks. I am pleased that the group which formulated the Code has now organised itself as the Private Banking Industry Group, or “PBIG”. Besides overseeing the implementation of the Code, the PBIG will look at initiatives to grow the private banking industry in a sustainable manner and to enhance Singapore’s reputation as international responsible wealth management centre. It is co-chaired by the Chairman of Citi Private Bank Deepak Sharma and MAS Assistant Managing Director, Ng Nam Sin, signifying an industry-MAS collaborative effort. Another laudable example of industry-MAS collaboration is the Governance and Compliance Standing Committee under the Association of Banks in Singapore (ABS). This Committee has been working closely with the industry and MAS to promote compliance with AML/CFT measures. They have organised seminars to raise awareness, conducted training programmes, and issued industry guidelines to level up AML/CFT standards. Conclusion Let me sum up. First, competence. The wealth management industry is growing rapidly amidst a tight labour market. Standards must not slip. We must maintain strong competencies. Let us commit to all new entrants to the industry going through the requisite industry certification before admission. Next, trust. The global financial crisis has given the financial industry a bad name. This need not be the case. We must bring back to the centre of finance the notion of ethics – doing the right thing for customers, dealing fairly, and acting with integrity at all times.

1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  More will be done if necessary, of course, but the diagnosis that was reached yesterday by the Governing Council is that a little less is necessary today because growth is stronger and Europe is doing better. And to make this quite clear, how much will the ECB disburse in, say, 2017? The decision that was taken yesterday is to extend our asset purchases for a further nine months by buying € billion per month of various financial instruments, which makes an additional € billion euro. That’s the decision: we will add € billion to the € billion per month planned for the first three months of 2017, making € billion, so for the whole of 2017 that comes to slightly less than € billion extra compared with what we are doing already. And since March 2015? Asset purchases today come to around € trillion in total, so if we add 1,500 and 800 it means that, at the end of next year, we’ll be at just over € trillion. Yes, and you realise that with this € trillion growth is good, average, but it’s not stronger. What would happen without this € trillion? Well, without it, if the ECB wasn’t doing what it’s doing, growth would be between 0% and 1%, inflation would be close to zero and unemployment wouldn’t be falling in the euro area. But as you know, unemployment is now falling fairly quickly in the euro area.