samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
However, these were not the only reasons why it proved difficult to gain acceptance for a low-inflation policy in Sweden and why the thought of entrusting monetary policy to an independent institution raised doubts. The Keynesian tradition has been extremely strong among Swedish economists and across party lines ever since the 1930s. Therefore, the idea that the state can continuously control or influence the economic situation has probably been more persistent here than elsewhere. Our strong parliamentary tradition, which is based on the idea that all power derives from Parliament, has also played a part. Countries where power is shared more evenly among the political institutions have found it easier to accept the delegation of monetary policy to an independent authority. Having said this, it is worthwhile recalling that there is in fact a completely different Swedish tradition. The policy shift of the early 1990s is in fact a return to a long tradition of price stability that was temporarily interrupted for a few decades. Between 1870 and 1970, the average rate of annual inflation was about 2%. 1  BIS Review 39/2000  Diagram 1.

Although gaining a hearing for the policy of low inflation was an uphill struggle to start with, we can see that the idea enjoys growing support today. Studies show that more and more people back the Riksbank’s inflation target. The fact that the Riksbank now has an independent legal status is perhaps a sign that Swedes have come to accept the price stability regime. Results in recent years It may be interesting against this background to examine developments in the last few years. Are there any indications that the policy shift around 1990 has already had some effect? Obviously, the return to price stability is not the only change that has taken place. Economic policy has changed in other respects too. For example, budgetary policy has been tightened up, public expenditure has been cut and deregulation and other structural reforms have been implemented. One way to understand the impact of the policy shift is to compare developments in recent years with the preceding 20-year period with a high-inflation regime. Naturally, all such comparisons must be made with great caution, since the outcome depends very much on which periods you take as your starting-point. The argument for low, stable inflation is that it ensures a better environment for investment, improved productivity, economic growth and increases in real wages and, in the long run, higher employment too.
And investigations of further cases and criminal actions, in foreign exchange and other markets, remain ongoing. Some of the cases already brought by colleagues at the Financial Conduct Authority have resulted in the publication of truly shocking evidence about the behaviour by some individuals in these markets. What particularly struck me in reading some of that evidence was how casual their attitude appeared to be towards the abuses they perpetrated. In one example, a trader mentioned to his manager that he had asked a colleague to lower the firm’s Yen Libor submission, adding that “every little helps…it’s like Tescos.” Was the  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  manager concerned? Not a bit of it. “Absolutely, every little helps”, he replied. 1 Some individuals seem to have enjoyed a perverse kind of prestige from their involvement in the process. One Libor submitter was told by a grateful trader for whom he had manipulated a submission that his “name will be written in golden letters” should he ever write a book on the business. 2 As somebody who believes in markets, I find this behaviour outrageous. How did this happen? How did this happen? Some academics I have spoken to think that part of the answer may lie in the field of moral psychology. 3 That view suggests that initial transgressions occur because many decisions taken by those in financial markets are done by way of automatic, fast thinking – “System 1” thinking in the language of Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman 4.

The only exceptions were those measures that had already been approved (the tax reductions in Royal Decree-Law 15/2018 of 5 October 2018 on urgent measures for the energy transition and the protection of consumers, and the impact of the Supreme Court ruling of 5 October 2018, which stipulates exemption for maternity benefits for personal income tax purposes), or those that were more clearly defined since they were in response to specific agreements (the inflation-linked rise in pensions, and those relating to publicsector employment and wages). In the fiscal policy arena, moreover, I should like to point out that the latest budgetary outturn figures appear to confirm an exit scenario from the Excessive Deficit Procedure in BANCO DE ESPAÑA  5	 TESTIMONY BY THE GOVERNOR OF THE BANCO DE ESPAÑA BEFORE PARLIAMENT IN RELATION TO THE DRAFT STATE AND SOCIAL SECURITY BUDGET FOR 2019  FORECASTS FOR THE SPANISH ECONOMY: MAIN RISKS. A MORE UNFAVOURABLE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT  CHART 5  LONG-TERM IMPACT OF A "NO-DEAL" (a)  GDP GROWTH FOR 2019 %  % deviation from baseline scenario  3.5  0  3.0  -2  2.5  -4  2.0  -6  1.5  -8  1.0  -10  0.5 0.0 Jan-18  -12 Apr-18  Jul-18  UNITED STATES  Oct-18  Jan-19  United Kingdom  EURO AREA  IMF (JUN-2018)  EU-27 BANK OF ENGLAND (NOV-2018)  SOURCES: Consensus Forecasts, IMF and Bank of England.
In addition to these savings bank merger/SIP operations, it should be mentioned that in the three years of international financial crisis, only two savings banks saw their solvency deteriorate to such an extent as to require the application of precautionary special measures. First, the directors of Caja Castilla-La Mancha were replaced by the Banco de España in March 2009 (before the FROB was set up). It received aid from the DGF totalling € billion, of which € billion consisted of preference shares and € billion were in the form of guarantees of asset value, as well as € million of bridge financing. This savings bank, following the agreements reached by it with Cajastur, has joined one of the 12 merger/SIP processes under way. Second, CajaSur was subjected to compulsory restructuring due to lack of solvency and viability, following its failure to approve a merger with Unicaja, a sound and solvent project in which the two savings banks had agreed on a private solution for the failed institution. The FROB granted temporary aid through the subscription of € million of non-voting equity units and € billion in liquidity support, which so far it has not been necessary to use. Definitive arrangements are being worked out for this savings bank through a competitive process in which the aid finally granted will be defined. At present, the provisional amount of the aid to be received by Spanish savings banks in this process is as follows. The FROB will furnish around € billion to strengthen own funds in merger/SIP processes.

Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour: Practical aspects of dispute resolution in Islamic finance facilities Remarks by Mr Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Association of Islamic Banking Institutions Malaysia (AIBIM) Law Seminar on "Practical Aspects of Dispute Resolution in Islamic Finance Facilities", Kuala Lumpur, 14 November 2017. * * *  “Past, present and future: Legal certainty and Islamic finance in Malaysia” It is my honour to join all of you today in exploring this interesting topic on the practical aspects of dispute resolution in Islamic finance. This seminar marks another significant step in fostering dialogue between Islamic financiers, Shariah scholars and the legal fraternity. Gatherings such as this serve as an important platform for Islamic finance practitioners to develop a better grasp of legal issues, and for lawyers to gain a keener sense of Islamic finance. I am encouraged to see the Association of Islamic Banking Institutions Malaysia (AIBIM) taking the lead in advancing this mission. Disputes in business transactions have been around for as long as commerce itself. It is therefore no surprise that we come across judges and lawyers very early on in human history. Earlier than bankers – and definitely long before we see the first central banker . Disputes are bound to happen. One party may not be able or willing to honour their obligations. The other party may be dissatisfied with how an obligation is performed.
The top-decile of German and French companies have, by comparison, levels of productivity 80% and 60%, respectively, above the median. If we look more closely at companies in the top 1% or 0.1% of the productivity distribution, the scale of this success story becomes clearer still (Table 1). On average over the ten years to 2014, 1%-er companies experienced annual productivity growth of 8%. 0.1%-er companies have seen annual productivity growth of 12%. There is no evidence of a lost decade among these high-fliers. For them, the Fourth Industrial Revolution has already arrived. It is tempting to think these frontier companies are a tightly-knit bunch, geographically and sectorally. By and large, you should resist that temptation. Table 1 shows productivity growth over the past decade among the top 1% and 0.1% of companies, broken down by region and by sector. 10  There are some important  differences in productivity performance. Even among the 0.1%-ers, there are some wide regional variations in performance, with the East Midlands at the top (30% per year) and Wales at the bottom (0%). Differences across sectors are larger still. The upper tail of sectors such as transportation and storage and information has seen annual rates of productivity growth of 30 or even 40%. Among virtually all sectors, and across virtually all regions, however, upper tail companies have seen positive and healthy rates of productivity growth.

For one, the Committee found that banks did not obtain sufficient financial information to allow for a full assessment of how much and what types of risk had been assumed by large HLIs. In particular, banks did not obtain the information needed to assess leverage sufficiently. They did not have sufficient information to understand HLIs’ concentrations in particular markets and risk categories, or their exposure to broad trading strategies. BIS Review 36/1999  2  Also, banks did not sufficiently understand the ability of HLIs to manage their risks. Because risk profiles can change from one day to the next, or even from moment to moment, it is necessary for an HLI’s counterparties to ensure that the HLI can effectively manage its business operations and risks on an ongoing basis. Exposure Measurement The Committee also concluded that banks should develop better measures of the credit exposure resulting from different types of trading activities. In particular, banks must develop more effective measures of what is called “potential future exposure.” Potential future exposure measures the credit exposure between a counterparty and a bank, and how this exposure could change in the future as market prices fluctuate. The ability of banks to measure potential future exposure is crucial when dealing with HLIs. Unfortunately, methods for calculating potential future exposure had not kept pace with the growth and complexity of HLIs. As we have seen, under volatile market conditions, a bank’s exposure to HLIs can grow substantially. In many instances, banks request HLIs to post collateral covering their exposures.
In such economies the internal market is far too small for firms to enjoy sufficient economies of scale that enable them to be competitive internationally. Moreover, these economies wield little market power in the global economy. Ultimately, the realities of rigid labour and product markets and unsound fiscal policies always catch up. Exchange rate adjustment alone is unable to restore or improve living standards. Therefore, a fixed exchange rate policy provides incentives for prudent fiscal behaviour as well as for policies that promote productivity and competitiveness. These policies are crucial to avoid large current account deficits, depletion of foreign exchange reserves, and currency depreciation. Depreciation increases inflation and deters investment if market-oriented reforms in product and labour market policies remain absent and fiscal discipline is missing. Diversification of an economy’s production base and of the markets it targets insulate an economy from shocks more effectively than exchange rate flexibility. In conclusion, I hope I have shown how the Central Bank of Malta has journeyed from a monetary and exchange rate policy based on a currency peg – an arrangement common to many Mediterranean central banks today – to membership of a single currency area. I contend that we have managed this transition successfully. At the same time, we cannot afford to lose the focus on internal discipline and external competitiveness that served us so well over the last five decades.

The expanded swap lines have since been used heavily, with the stock of dollar borrowing approaching $ trillion – by far the highest usage since the GFC (Chart 4). Pressures in sterling and euro FX swap markets (measured by the gap between onshore and offshore dollar rates) fell back rapidly. Yen markets took a little longer to normalise. But all of the major onshore and offshore dollar rates are now back within tight ranges of one another (Chart 3). Moment 3: dysfunction spreads to the gilt market Would the dash for cash engulf the UK gilt market too? It seemed distinctly possible – the gilt functioning indicators we monitor had started turning red2 as the week progressed, and by Friday 13th we were hearing ‘you’ll be next’ warnings from anxious funds. On the other hand, leveraged trading in gilts was less prevalent than in USTs. And the Federal Reserve’s announcement on Sunday 15 March of an eye-popping $ (later unlimited) asset purchase programme to support market functioning and meet the global need for cash was seen as a game-changer by some. Any misplaced optimism on that front would be short-lived. Gilt markets may have taken a little longer to react – but they were not immune. As a new week began, selling pressure continued to drive yields up sharply (Chart 5), and functioning worsened further (Chart 6).
The Fed’s own estimates indicate that its effects should be similar to what would result with a policy rate cut of 50 basis points. This is surely an effort in the right direction, but its incidence will be limited because of their weak economic situation. The problems in Europe are more severe and worrisome because of its consequences on the world economy and financial markets. Europe is at the core of any debate on the state of the world economy. The serious insolvency of one country, Greece, which is a tiny fraction of the Eurozone, spread throughout the continent as a major confidence crisis (figure 14). There is a vicious circle from weak growth to weak fiscal accounts to weak banking. The crisis is in full swing, and its resolution is uncertain. Unlike what could be expected in the first half of the year, the market does not rule out a disorderly resolution of Greece’s problems, which could result in a default of its sovereign debt and, in a worst-case scenario, in its departure from the euro. This could be very costly, so the Eurozone authorities are fiercely committed to helping it out. The proposals under discussion call for a firewall to avoid the contagion of the sovereign debt, recapitalizing banks and find a solution to the specific case of Greece. This is obviously difficult to do without first having established the firewall for the rest of the region.

The risk of overheating and forex pressures Economic recovery continued over the course of 2010, but at the turn of 2011 we faced new macroeconomic challenges. Preoccupations again centered on world developments, due to tensions associated to the two-speed recovery. Emerging countries, with their output gaps narrowed or closed had to deal with their economies’ overheating and related inflationary pressures. Furthermore, they began having strong exchange rate pressures due to their better relative position in the world, capital inflows and the need for global imbalances to be resolved. Several economies’ exchange rates dropped to their lowest in the last decade (figure 9). Only very recently have we seen some reversal because of a terms-of-trade deterioration and increased risk aversion around the world. Chile has been no exception. Although in net terms capital inflows were not large, our currency also strengthened, not a surprise in a scenario of vigorous growth and very good terms of trade. The nominal exchange rate posted a significant appreciation toward the end of 2010, while the real exchange rate hit levels below the averages of the last 15 to 20 years (figure 10). The current exchange rate tensions originate in some long-lasting phenomena in the international economy. Global imbalances are still unresolved, and part of the solution requires that the countries that enjoy a better position today (i.e., emerging en commodityexporting economies) redirect part of their demand to those that are worse off – the developed economies.
This is where the Shariah community has to elevate itself, providing guidance that serves as the setting compass for institutions in charting new strategies and enabling the structuring of new innovative solutions. One way to sail through this is by establishing parameters and guidelines as readily implementable approaches. This involves ongoing experimentation, assessment, and learning in any uncertain environment. Shariah recommendations need to accommodate different permutations in varying situations, given the flexibility afforded in Shariah. It is in this spirit that the Bank is currently finalising the Discussion Paper on H ajah that serves as a toolkit in applying hajah, taking into consideration the different magnitude and severity of situations. Hajah application, however, should not be considered as a permanent solution, but it is rather a temporary way out to accommodate certain justified need and necessity. Hence, a clear interpretation of hajah from the context of contemporary financial practices, supplemented with in-depth understanding of its impact will unlock uncharted opportunities for Islamic financial institutions to explore more diversified approaches in delivering financial solutions within the safe boundaries of Shariah compliance. This nudges a refreshed Shariah viewpoint in steering commercial decisions, pushing beyond the frontiers of traditional norms. The implementation of hajah should thus be oriented by robust and detailed governance process and assessment, commensurate to the size and business of financial institutions. As the operating environment becomes more complex, so will the Shariah issues.

Public and private partners are involved in this undertaking — they formed a consortium composed of the Rzeszow University of Technology, other technical universities, a group of aviation industry enterprises called “The Aviation Valley” and the Polish Aviation Institute”. Globalisation influences the perspectives of the world’s major economies. In the USA, the discussion on relocation of jobs to the Asian countries became a lively element of political debate during the last presidential elections. Similarly, in Europe a debate is underway concerning the future of the single services market. There is no doubt, however, that any solutions of regulatory or protectionist nature may hinder all these changes only temporarily, as they are inevitable. The countries, whose politicians will understand the mechanisms of the global economy and will implement necessary reforms to improve the investment climate, will benefit the most from the globalisation processes. Entrepreneurs should also keep a sharp lookout on the globalisation processes currently underway, in order to respond to the emerging threats in a timely manner, but - first of all - in order to benefit from the great opportunities that they create. Thank you very much for your attention. 8  BIS Review 19/2006
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Current issues and developments in Islamic banking and finance Keynote address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the ASLI’s Conference on Developing Islamic Banking and Capital Market: “New Opportunities, New Market and New Frontier in Islamic Banking and Finance”, Kuala Lumpur, 25 August 2004. *  *  *  Islamic banking and finance has emerged as a financial intermediation process that is competitive and resilient and that contributes to the overall wealth creation, growth and development of our nation. Amidst an increasingly challenging and competitive financial environment, the evolution of a comprehensive Islamic financial system seeks to meet the range of requirements of a rapidly changing economic environment, with its soundness and stability secured through the robustness of its regulatory framework supported by the strength of its financial infrastructure and the sophistication of its products and services. Indeed, the strength of the respective components of the system and the interconnections of its markets will open new frontiers in Islamic banking and finance and will maximize the potential and opportunities that it accords. Distinguished guests, It is my pleasure to be here today at this conference organised by ASLI to speak on the current issues and developments in Islamic banking and finance. The Islamic financial system in Malaysia has evolved as a viable and competitive component of the overall financial system, complementing the conventional financial system as a driver of economic growth and development.

Descending safely: Life after Libor ‐ speech by Andrew Bailey | Bank of England  Page 3  While it is always the right choice to install the safety net to break your fall in the form of fallbacks, this shouldn’t be seen as a substitute for pre-emptive action, ensuring a sure footing on the descent. Active transition ahead of LIBOR cessation remains an important part of easing the gradient of that descent – it ensures contractual certainty and allows borrowers, lenders, issuers and investors to retain economic control over their contracts. GBP bond markets are again leading the way, as we have seen over 50 bonds with a value of around £ billion actively transitioned from GBP Libor to SONIA. [8] Where tough legacy contracts are able to take advantage of that safety net, for example in the form of the proposed synthetic Libor we should be clear that this a temporary solution. [9] Supervisory engagement will continue after the end of this year to ensure regulated firms continue to manage that rump and move those exposures onto robust alternatives where that is possible. As those facilities re-new, in most case they should move to the most robust rate available, where we expect the most liquidity to be – in sterling that will be SONIA compounded in arrears. The use of forward looking term risk-free rates Let me now turn to the critical element of any journey – the destination. The reference rates the market transitions to are important choices.