samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Elvira Nabiullina: Review of Russia’s economic and financial developments in 2015 Statement by Ms Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Bank of Russia, at the plenary meeting of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 14 June 2016. *  *  *  Good afternoon, dear colleagues! Today we present the latest Annual Report of the Bank of Russia to the 6th State Duma. First of all, I would like to thank the deputies for the legislative efforts, which we took together to both develop the financial system and protect the rights of financial services consumers, and for the efficient cooperation with the Bank of Russia. As many as 130 laws affecting the financial sector have been adopted over these three years. Now, let’s look at the Bank of Russia’s performance in 2015. A sharp deterioration in external environment in late 2014 – early 2015 (oil price drop and sanctions) triggered turbulence in the external market and followed by a surge in inflation. These developments required measures to stabilise the situation and help the economy adjust to the worsened conditions. The first one is a transition to a floating exchange rate of the ruble. This is a pivotal systemic measure. Though this transition was not a smooth one, I would like to stress, should we have failed to take this step, according to our estimates, the economic downturn could have been deeper. Now the floating exchange rate works as an embedded economic stabiliser that mitigates the external shocks.

-  The second area concerns the improvement of cross-border payments, which international bodies have rightly made a priority. Last year, we demonstrated the advantages of CBDM to optimise the payment chain by reducing the number of intermediaries and improving the security of settlements. 5  Alongside these discussions on interbank CBDM, the issuance of retail MNBC is being examined. The launch of a possible digital euro by the Eurosystem would meet several objectives: 1- reaffirm the anchoring role of central bank money in the digital world, much like the role that banknotes play today in the physical world. 2- contribute to strengthening Europe's strategic autonomy in the field of payments, in a publicprivate partnership approach. We are aware of the impact that a digital euro could have on financial intermediation and monetary and financial stability. This means that these issues must be addressed at the design stage of a digital euro, for example by introducing holding limits or by developing a model in which intermediaries will play a central role in the distribution of the digital euro and in the management of relations with users. This is why we are now initiating a dialogue with stakeholders, which should be stepped up in the coming weeks and months. But there should be no doubt that, besides regulators and central banks, the private sector also has a key role to play in digital innovation.
By choosing this topic, the National Bank of Moldova and the central bankers at its helm prove, yet again, if it were still needed, that they are constantly preoccupied with playing an active role in the development and modernisation of the Moldovan society on the road to the European Union. Let me take the opportunity of opening this event to highlight – in my capacity as a long-standing partner of the National Bank of Moldova – the remarkable progress your institution has made on its path to a European-style central bank. When acknowledging the road followed by your institution, I cannot help recalling the bumpy ride of the National Bank of Romania in the same direction, the challenges we faced along the way and how we overcame the hurdles. That is why I believe we, at the NBR, are qualified to perform an accurate, realistic evaluation of the progress achieved by our colleagues in Chișinău, all the more so that our central banks boast a tight bilateral institutional cooperation spanning three decades, alongside the strategic partnerships between our institutions with EU, IMF and World Bank support. Dear colleagues and dear friends in Chișinău, you can be sure of the NBR’s full support in the National Bank of Moldova’s endeavour to align to European standards and practices. Ladies and gentlemen, Distinguished audience, The primary objective of a European central bank is to pursue price stability in the domestic economy.

And, I’ve proposed a set of solutions based on risk management tools: a focus on organizational objectives, end-to-end management of critical processes, integrated risk management, and a systems approach to control. These all share the common characteristic of being integrative. Resilient components do not necessarily add up to a resilient whole. So, organizational resilience is an enterprise goal that is achieved through coherent and coordinated enterprise solutions. A resilient organization is able to make better plans, decisions, and actions that deliver desired outcomes over a range of conditions. To strengthen resilience, we seek to tame the problematic present and constructively move forward into the hazy future. The tools of risk management can help get us there. 1 National Research Council, 2012, Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative, Washington, DC: The National  Academies Press. 2 Gillian Tett, 2005, The Silo Effect: The Peril of Expertise and the Promise of Breaking Down Barriers, New York, 4/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  NY: Simon and Schuster. 3 Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission, 2017, Enterprise Risk Management:  Integrating with Strategy and Performance. 4 Philippa Girling, 2013, “Operational Risk and Convergence” in Operational Risk Management: A Complete  Guide to a Successful Operational Risk Framework. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. Ramy Farha, Allen Meyer, Evan Sekeris, and Elena Belov, 2018, Non-Financial Risk, Convergence, and Integration, Oliver Wyman. Steve Culp and Chris Thompson, 2016, The Convergence of Operational Risk and Cyber Security. Accenture.
I think it is fair to say that the Open University has reached its maturity as an institution under his presidency. Yet, remarkably, the momentum that has characterised the University's early years seems now to be gaining rather than slackening, with the recently announced plans for expanded services not just in Hong Kong but also on the Mainland. Professor Tam will retire with the knowledge that the Open University is in a flourishing condition and has an excellent reputation, internationally as well as locally. I join you all in wishing him health and happiness in his retirement and in wishing his successor, Professor John Leong, every success. The Linked Exchange Rate system I had originally planned to talk generally this evening about challenges in central banking. I shall certainly address this topic later on. But it occurred to me as I was preparing the talk that this week, in addition to launching Alumni Link, we also mark the anniversary of the launch of another Link, which I also participated in twenty years ago. Since that Link has again become quite topical over recent weeks, I thought you might be more interested if the focus of this talk was on the Link. Twenty years ago, almost to the day, the Hong Kong Government announced and then implemented a new policy to stabilise the Hong Kong dollar. This was at a time when the dollar had been falling in value so fast that the monetary and banking systems were in a state of crisis.

Then the awareness of digital financial risks that are more diverse than when using traditional services such as online fraud and cyber security risks, but also over-borrowing or borrowing at excessively high interest rates amidst easy access. The last dimension relates to the knowledge of consumer rights and compensation procedures. The emergence of the pandemic, its nature and the necessity of social distancing in the COVID-19 even more urged the need for faster digitalization that has to go hand in hand with increased digital knowledge, and can be “seen to present an opportunity for many countries to progress more rapidly in facilitating digital financial services, enhancing regulatory and physical infrastructure so that service providers can meet new demand” (World Bank, 2021). Rising penetration of digital services is present across the board, although the potential for further growth is visible. The scrutiny of the available data reveals that around half of the adult population in the euro area used a mobile phone or the internet to access a financial institution account, while this percentage on a global level equals 23% and only 12% in North Macedonia. Digital payments were made or received by 92% of the euro area adult population, while 52% worldwide, and 66% in the Macedonian economy. The financial landscape is apparently going through tectonic shifts, as the technology is penetrating in all the pores of our societies and our day-to-day life, and the pandemic is prompting these changes aggressively.
There were certainly adjustments to macro-economic policy that needed to be made - a more flexible exchange rate regime in some cases, for example, or a somewhat tighter overall macro-economic stance, with perhaps some adjustment between fiscal and monetary policy. And, once the capital outflow had started, macro-economic adjustment had to be harsher than might otherwise have been necessary, in order to re-establish confidence. But there are real dangers in extreme market movements or in excessively severe macro-economic adjustment to contain them. That could cause a vicious circle of domestic default and systemic financial weakness in the affected country. And that could have seriously adverse implications - in terms of both financial and economic knock-on-effects - for the global economy. That, essentially, is why it may be in the self-interest of the international community to attempt to mitigate the market and macro-economic adjustment pressures by providing financial support. It is why the international community responded to the crisis in Asia by promptly offering very large amounts of official assistance - $ billion in the case of Thailand, $ billion for Indonesia and $ billion for South Korea. But such official financial help cannot be unlimited and it cannot be provided without strings. It, too, has real dangers. If it were too readily forthcoming it could encourage “moral hazard”, especially by encouraging commercial lenders - particularly foreign currency creditors - in the belief that they will be bailed out if things go wrong.

But even a snail can make remarkable progress if it keeps going. I am told that the quick species - I suppose they are the Model T snails - travel at a speed of three inches a minute - say 5 yards an hour. In that case a quick snail could have travelled quite easily from Cranfield to the borders of Scotland since the collapse of the Berlin Wall! And if you look back over a decade rather than at the outcome of just the latest meetings, then there really has been remarkable progress within the developing, emerging and transitional economies as well as the industrial world - towards a broad international consensus on approaches to economic management. That consensus can perhaps be summed up essentially as macro-economic stability and supply-side flexibility - but that needs some elaboration. On the macro-economic side we have learned - and it has taken some countries longer than others - that you cannot achieve what we are all trying to achieve - sustained growth, high levels of employment and rising living standards - simply by pumping up demand in our economies through expansionary monetary and fiscal policies without regard to the underlying supply-side capacity of our economies to meet that demand. Short-term demand management through monetary policy too often led just to accelerating inflation, which had then eventually to be brought under control through recession - an absolute recipe for short-termism in both financial and business BIS Review 36/1998  -2-  behaviour.
We have also lengthened the supporting period and increased the IMF delinked portion, from 20% to 30% this year with a view to increasing it to 40% in 2014, subject to review should conditions warrant. In serving as a regional safety net, such arrangements contribute to further development of the regional financial markets by providing a credible liquidity firewall, both for crisis resolution and crisis prevention, to anchor investors’ confidence. It is only with  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  enough confidence that we can attract the participation of foreign investors into our markets for the sustainable developments of our economies and region. I look forward to an even greater success in the next 10 years. Thank you for your kind attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

Ardian Fullani: Overview of economic developments and key issues in Albania Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, on the monetary policy decision by the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania, Tirana, 20 December 2012. *  *  *  Today, on 20 December 2012, the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council reviewed and approved the monthly Monetary Policy Report. Based on the latest monetary and economic developments in Albania, and following the discussions on their future outlook, the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged, at 4.00%. The Supervisory Council deems that the current monetary conditions are adequate to meet Bank of Albania’s inflation target in the medium term. Moreover, these conditions ensure the right monetary stimulus to support the domestic demand. Let me now proceed with an overview of the economic developments and key issues discussed at today’s meeting. *** Annual inflation in November stood at 2.5%. The major part of inflation continues to be determined by the performance of food prices. Contribution of other goods was steady from the previous month. Inflation fluctuation owed mainly to the supply-side factors, of external and internal origin. Nonetheless, the intensity of supply shocks was low and lasted for a short period of time. The Supervisory Council finds that developments in the real economy and financial markets produced low inflationary pressures. The Albanian economy continues to remain below its potential. This development is reflected in the low increase of wages and production costs.
In the year to November, total household borrowing rose 4%, and consumer credit rose over 10%, the fastest rate since 2005. How household spending evolves, and the inter-temporal trade-off that households strike, will be important considerations over the next year. The MPC will continue to monitor these dynamics. In November, the MPC reiterated that we were choosing a period of somewhat higher consumer price inflation in exchange for a more modest increase in unemployment. But it also noted that there are limits to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated. Those limits depend on the cause of the inflation overshoot, the extent of second-round effects on inflation expectations and domestic costs, the scale of the shortfall in economic activity below potential, and any risks around the development of imbalances that could threaten a sustainable return of inflation to the target. Recently, there have been signs of continued solid consumer momentum domestically and a stronger growth outlook globally. The MPC will monitor developments in the light of its inflation tolerance, and will explain its assessment and policy stance accordingly. 16  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches  16  It remains the case that the outlook for inflation will depend on the evolution of the prospects for demand, supply and the exchange rate. Monetary policy can respond, in either direction, to changes to the economic outlook as they unfold to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target. 7.

We remain flexible and ready to make adjustments to our operations as needed to ensure that monetary policy is effectively implemented and transmitted to financial markets and the broader economy. Conclusion I’ll conclude with this: The coronavirus poses evolving risks to the U.S. economy. Our policy action this week positions us well to support the economic expansion. We are carefully monitoring the effects of the coronavirus on the U.S. economic outlook and will respond as appropriate. Our focus remains trained on serving the American people by pursuing our dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. Once again, thank you for this evening’s award. 1 1 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement, March 3, 2020. 2 2 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation,  October 11, 2019; Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Statement Regarding Treasury Bill Purchases and Repurchase Operations, October 11, 2019. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
The most recent of these measures is the activation, in February this year, of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB). These measures were necessary and useful. For example, this year a  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  few large domestically focused banks – citing, among other reasons, the activation of the CCB – have taken steps to strengthen their capital and thereby their resilience. So far, however, the package of measures has not been enough to prevent a further build-up of imbalances on the mortgage and real estate markets. In an environment of persistently low interest rates, coupled with banks’ undiminished appetite for risk, the danger of a further build-up of imbalances remains considerable. For this reason, the SNB continues to monitor the situation very closely, and regularly assesses whether the CCB should be adjusted. Supply of secure banknotes ensured at all times Now I would like to say a few words on the subject of banknotes. At the beginning of October, we informed the public that, since autumn 2012, a small number of Swiss 1000-franc banknotes have been in circulation which were not issued by the SNB. As you know, these notes were abstracted during the production process at Orell Füssli, before they had been through all stages of production. Out of consideration for the investigation by the Office of the Attorney General, this information was only made public after some of these notes appeared in Switzerland.

With regard to mortgage lending for owner-occupied residential property, the proportion of new loans with high loan-to-value ratios has decreased slightly. Where affordability risks are concerned, however, no such development can be identified. Moreover, domestically focused banks remain the driving force behind the strong domestic mortgage growth. While a few individual banks have reined in their lending considerably compared to last year, others have maintained a high level of lending growth, or have even stepped up lending. Finally, interest rate risk exposure is extremely high by historical standards, whereas average interest rate margins have narrowed further over the same period. On a positive note, domestically focused banks’ capitalisation as measured by regulatory requirements remains at historically high levels. However, as discussed in this year’s Financial Stability Report, these regulatory capital ratios could be overstating the banks’ resilience, because the major risks prevailing in the mortgage and real estate markets or the interest rate risk exposure are not, or only partly, taken into account. Against this backdrop, banks should – irrespective of the regulatory requirements – continuously assess their resilience, and make adjustments where necessary. They should be able to maintain their economically important functions, even if real estate prices were to fall sharply and interest rates were to simultaneously rise. Over the last few years, a number of measures have been taken to reduce the risks to financial stability arising out of developments in the mortgage and real estate markets.
The guideline was introduced in order to provide a level playing field at a time when many banks were already themselves applying this restriction. It continues to have the broad support of the banking industry. It has helped maintain banking stability during a period of considerable stress, and, no less important, it has helped limit the problem of negative equity. The guideline does not prevent borrowers from obtaining further finance from other sources, and indeed there are many products on the market to enable homeowners to borrow up to 90% of the value of their home, and many homeowners who have taken advantage of these products. In other words, the 70% guideline is intended to restrict the risk exposure of banks, not to limit the amount of finance that borrowers can obtain. The guideline is therefore a not a tactical tool for affecting property prices in the short term but a strategic measure for maintaining banking stability over the longer term. Anyone who wishes to see what happens when there is no such guideline in a falling market can find plenty of examples overseas. Or you can look again at the situation in Hong Kong in 1983, when banks became dangerously exposed, directly and indirectly, to a volatile property market in which the bubble had burst and from which confidence was draining fast: there was, of course, no 70% guideline in those days. Functions and Responsibilities in Monetary and Financial Affairs You may have noticed here parallels with monetary policy.

The second area of improvement for the macroprudential framework in Europe involves keeping pace with developments in the financial system. That requires broadening the range of macroprudential instruments beyond those currently available, which focus almost exclusively on the banking sector. For the insurance sector, the contours of such instruments are taking shape. They include solvency instruments such as symmetric capital requirements for cyclical risks; liquidity instruments for insurers with a vulnerable liquidity profile; and instruments to target bank-like activities to ensure macroprudential policy is consistent across sectors.11 The third area for improvement in macroprudential policy involves establishing a clearer conceptual framework to govern policy discussions and interventions. Such a framework would facilitate communication with market participants and the general public, as well as help mitigate any risk of inaction bias. 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  For monetary policy the framework is well known and the reaction function of central banks is normally well understood by markets. By contrast, the framework that governs macroprudential policy interventions is much less developed, due in no small part to our limited experience of using these tools. The objective of financial stability is broader than the objective of price stability, so is less easily defined by a single numerical measure. Developing the policy framework is challenging and will take time.