samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
On one hand, banks have been able to gain access to the ECB’s long-term financing under most advantageous conditions thanks to the purpose-built programmes introduced by the ECB. On the other, the public guarantees on loans to firms and the self-employed approved by the Government have contributed to lessening financial institutions’ potential reluctance to take new risks on board in such an uncertain setting. Analyses by the Banco de España based on the evidence available suggest that these guarantee facilities are, in particular, paving the way for the financing both of firms facing greater difficulty gaining access to credit and of small enterprises, marked by having been affected by the impact of the health crisis and for having a greater risk profile. Thanks to the guarantees, SMEs have been able to finance themselves in recent months under more favourable conditions in terms of the interest rate, the amount of credit and, above all, the maturity of the operation, which on average has stood at close to five years. The role of lending to companies in the current crisis is thus proving to be of great importance. It is contributing to reducing the risk of bankruptcy for firms that are viable but which face temporary liquidity problems, with the adverse consequences this would have in terms of job destruction and damage to the productive system, and, in sum, to the robustness and momentum of the economic recovery.

Given the novel nature of the instrument, its amount and the difficulties in reaching agreements in the EU on such multi-faceted matters, I must say that the outcome is very satisfactory in terms of underscoring the shared will to move the European project forward. The challenge now is to convert these funds that will be made available to countries into a fiscal impulse that accompanies and steers the recovery effort needed in our productive system. In this connection it would be advisable to prioritise, in the short term, public investment projects in innovation, technological capital, education and lifelong learning, and projects that contribute to the transition to a more sustainable economy, in line with the strategic guidelines recently laid down by the European authorities. The fact that the recovery fund agreed by the Council focuses on medium and long-term objectives means there is still a significant need in the short term to fund the Member States’ budgetary effort in combating the effects of the pandemic. Also, in the medium term it remains necessary to equip the EU with an appropriate institutional framework to address the asymmetrical effect of economic shocks, e.g. through the launch of a common budgetary macroeconomic stabilisation capacity, a cyclical stabilisation function or a pan-European unemployment insurance scheme. That would influence greater pooling of resources and risks in the budgetary arena and would enhance the resilience of the Union as a whole to negative shocks.
Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: Speech - European Statistics Day Speech by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, at the marking of the European Statistics Day, held at the National Bank, Skopje, 28 October 2019. * * *  Your Excellency Zhbogar, Dear Director General Simovski, Dear Mr. Nymand-Andersen, Esteemed managers of regulatory institutions, Former Minister of Finance, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is my great pleasure to address you today at the celebration of the European Statistics Day. Reflecting on the concept of today’s event for further affirmation of the importance of statistics, as well as our commitment to compile quality statistics under the latest European and international standards in general, I recall what Herbert George Wells said a century ago, “Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write.” And he was right. Today, when information and knowledge are the main building blocks of society, and when neither full information nor thorough knowledge is possible without quality data, there is no doubt that statistics are and will always be necessary, both for the individual and for the society at large. Therefore, the responsibility we all have as part of the statistical puzzle is great – we create a public good whose benefits are felt by every individual, every institution, policy maker ... all this for the benefit of a healthy and prosperous society. The past decade has witnessed tectonic changes in the global economic and financial landscape.

There is no doubt that as a central bank we have been actively following these global trends and updating our statistics to new dimensions for the last ten years. We have been compiling sectoral financial accounts as an important tool for better tracking of vulnerabilities in the economy, and the first public release is scheduled for 2020. Aware of the risks that may arise in segments of the financial system outside banks we have upgraded the 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  statistics on deposit-taking institutions, with statistics on other financial institutions (pension funds, insurance companies, investment funds, leasing companies, financial companies). In the context of financial systems and markets, we were particularly focused on securities statistics, ensuring a better analytical infrastructure for timely risk detection. We have developed a broad and diverse database of financial stability indicators, and have been involved in the IMF reporting system on all key financial stability indicators, but also on some of the so-called “recommended” indicators. Hence, as a central bank, we have been constantly following international initiatives, enriching the statistical framework. Yet we must be aware that the enriched statistical framework also creates many new challenges. The increasing granularity of data and their frequency create an ecosystem with exponential growth in the volume and availability of data. The heterogeneity and complexity of the currently available data require a holistic approach to their transformation into official statistics.
In this respect, we do not think there is any risk of deflation in the euro area, or inflation for that matter. Furthermore, the United States may be substantially below its long-term growth potential, whereas the euro area is relatively close. Le Figaro – Nonetheless, the dollar is sliding and we seem to be moving away from the close cooperation seen between central banks during the crisis... Christian Noyer – First, everything does not come down to the dollar. For example, there are emerging countries that, by not being sufficiently flexible in their exchange rate policy, have monetary policies that are inappropriate and create risks to inflation and growth. Moreover, while each central bank is pursuing a policy appropriate to its country’s situation, nobody wants to move away from the goal of consistency. We are all committed to ensure a framework for balanced growth, and that commitment remains just as strong. As reiterated at the last meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank Governors, no one should or can manipulate their currency. Le Figaro – Is the euro not the real victim of recent foreign exchange developments? Christian Noyer – The euro is not the only currency that floats against all other currencies. Let’s not be so self-centred! The idea that the euro is arguably the adjustment variable for the rest of the world seems strange to me. Le Figaro – Will the G20 be able to make headway on monetary policy issues given that the climate is, to say the least, tense?

Put simply, a balance sheet produced under US GAAP is twice as small as its equivalent using international standards. And capital appears twice as high. This creates confusion. Le Figaro – Will the United States implement Basel III? Christian Noyer – We’ll be monitoring developments very closely. I have no doubts about the commitment of the US administration and the Fed. 2  BIS Review 152/2010
However, in case the target date turns unrealistic or the formal commitment is not accompanied by a roadmap with clearly defined intermediate objectives, the credibility of euro adoption is rightfully questioned and the process loses its positive features mentioned above. We cannot speak of euro adoption and sustainable nominal convergence without referring to real convergence as well. Even though the latter lacks a clear-cut definition and quantitative benchmarks, attaining a sufficient degree of real convergence is an important parameter for successful euro area membership, since it minimises the risks associated with abandoning monetary policy independence. This is all the more important as euro adoption implies, in the words of Professor Issing, a “permanent commitment”. From this perspective, the two types of convergence are mutually reinforcing: nominal convergence provides the stable macroeconomic environment that fosters real convergence, while the latter lays the groundwork for sustainable nominal convergence by reducing the economy’s exposure to asymmetric shocks and containing differences in the transmission of symmetric shocks. It is, however, of the essence that the pursuit of real convergence gains should not be governed by a short-term vision, in which case they would come at the cost of macroeconomic imbalances. II. Is Romania prepared for ERM II? Professor Issing is going to speak today about the global currency war, about whether we are indeed witnessing a genuine clash of currencies, as well as about the consequences of the massive exchange rate swings.

Obviously, not only the developments in the Eurozone, but also the progress in non-euro area countries contributed thereto. As for Romania, I cannot refrain from underscoring that, while in 2008 the country did not fulfil any of the Maastricht criteria (the only indicator below the reference value was that on government debt, which is part of the fiscal sustainability criterion), today it is a frontrunner in terms of macrostability. This refers to the fulfilment of the nominal convergence criteria and the observance of the reference values in the scoreboard for the surveillance of macroeconomic imbalances (net international investment position is the only indicator in excess of the reference value, the same as in all new Member States). BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  This is the right time to reassess the schedule for euro adoption, especially in the context of the governance framework reform that is underway in the euro area and of the wait-and-see approach of other non-euro area Member States (I am referring to Central and Eastern European countries, namely Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Poland and Hungary). We should ask ourselves whether setting a target date is a good idea. The answer would be: yes, to the extent that it helps reach political consensus, while also providing a policy anchor by rendering macroeconomic policies more coherent and acting as a catalyst for structural reforms.
As a result, they demand labour up to the point at which the real wage equals its marginal product, or, in log-linear terms: 𝑤 =𝑦−𝑛  (LD)  Equation (LD) is the labour demand curve. For given final demand, 𝑦, labour demand is a decreasing function of the real wage, 𝑤. Second, households supply labour, trading off the disutility of working more with the extra consumption higher wage income brings. The simplest resulting labour supply curve is: 𝑤 = 𝜑𝑛  (LS)  This condition says that households supply more labour when the real wage is high, governed by the (inverse) Frisch elasticity 𝜑. The two curves LS and LD deliver labour market equilibrium real wage and employment. That is illustrated in Figure 1. Figure 1: Labour market equilibrium. Figure 2: Demand and labour supply shocks reduce wages but can result in higher employment. This simple framework can be used to depict – in a simplified way – the dynamics of the crisis, as in Figure 2. First, a large shock to demand shifted the labour demand curve leftwards (from LD0 to LD1). The economy moved from point A to point B. Employment fell, unemployment rose, and wages fell. This captures, in simple terms, some features of the initial phase of the crisis. Second, in the more recent past, labour supply rose (from LS0 to LS1), reflecting a number of forces discussed in the text.

“Happiness is a time without debt and reading the end of a book when in bed Happiness is ours in a prosperous nation with a just appropriate level of inflation» Odd Nordstoga sings on.” Nordstoga reminds us that happiness is not only about little debt, but also the other areas of Norges Bank’s operations. A prosperous nation is also dependent on the sound management of the Government Pension Fund Global, which is operated by Norges Bank Investment Management. An appropriate level of inflation is also the objective of monetary policy. We call it inflation targeting. By just appropriate we mean that inflation should be not too high, nor too low. A balanced economic policy must first be in place in order to provide a sound basis for financial stability. Macroprudential policy can then make an important contribution to reducing the sizeable costs associated with financial crises. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Even if you exclude individual characteristics from our regression – the shifts in qualifications and occupations that do most of the empirical work – variations in sectoral employment shares don’t do a good statistical job of explaining wage growth. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  few years do look distinct, at least compared with the early 1990s cycle – overall, the compositional effects have been adding less to wage growth. They were less positive during the downturn, but have been more marked, in a negative direction, during the recovery. Overall, the “quality” of the workforce looks to have been growing at a somewhat slower rate since the onset of the 2008 recession – worth around ½% point a year on average wage growth – than it did during the equivalent period in the 1990s. Why might this have occurred? I can think of two possibilities, though there are no doubt others as well. One is that the financial crisis has depressed the relative demand for highskilled employees. I mentioned earlier that economists believe high-skilled jobs are probably complements, rather than substitutes, for capital and new computer technology. This is the most common explanation for the marked rise in the “skill premium”, in the US and elsewhere, during the 1980s and 1990s: new technologies favoured skilled jobs and their wages rose faster than those of the unskilled8.

Chart 7, summarising the results, is a version of a graph we published in the last two Inflation Reports. Note that, over time, the effects have tended to be positive. The average age and experience of the workforce has grown; more people have gone into higher education and higher-paid occupations. But on top of that underlying trend, we’ve seen sharp movements, in both directions, during the recent cycle. Both the drop in job creation during the Great Recession, and the corresponding pick-up during the recovery, were skewed towards the less skilled, less well paid end of the jobs market. Chart 8, which plots the differences in job creation across three classes of occupational characteristics, depicts one aspect of that pattern5. You can see similar differences in rates of job creation between young and old, less and more educated. And as I outlined in the introduction, the effect of these swings was to add materially to the growth of average earnings during the downturn and to subtract from it in 2013 and 2014. Unskilled employment generally more cyclical Before asking why this has happened let me make a few points about the estimates. First, there are some approximations involved. One involves the mix of surveys: we’re estimating the impact of compositional changes on LFS pay data and assuming the effect simply carries over to the AWE. That’s the most reasonable assumption, but it’s an assumption nonetheless.
Yet as long as the crisis is ongoing, an expansionary monetary policy will be needed to stimulate the economy. This reduces the risk that unemployment becomes entrenched at a high level. At the same time, persistently low interest rates entail a risk of a build-up of financial imbalances. In Norway, rapidly rising house prices and further household debt accumulation pose a particular risk. Once there are clear signs that economic conditions are normalising, we will again seek to normalise the use of instruments – as we did after the financial crisis in 2008 and after the oil price fall in 2014. 11  SUBSTANTIAL TRANSFERS FROM THE GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL  NORGES BANK  The monetary policy stance in the period ahead will be influenced by the timing and means of fiscal policy normalisation. Here the authorities face a difficult balancing act. ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 18 FEBRUARY 2021  On the one hand, the crisis is not yet over, and there is uncertainty regarding infection rates and the progress of vaccination. Against this background, the Storting (Norwegian parliament) has decided to extend the extraordinary support measures aimed at both individuals and businesses until September. At the same time, it is important that the support measures are scaled back as the situation becomes more normal. If these measures are extended too far into the future, we risk impeding necessary business restructuring. Workers may miss out on opportunities to seek new jobs, and unemployment may become entrenched at a higher level than prior to the crisis.

Last winter we saw how short the path was from a local virus outbreak in Wuhan to a global health crisis. Covid-19 followed the same routes as tourists, labour and goods. The virus showed how closely interconnected and interdependent countries are. 2 See The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson NBER Working Paper No. 25148, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_ papers/w25148/revisions/w25148.rev0.pdf  6  NORGES BANK  Chart 5 Growth in global trade has stalled Share of global GDP. Percent 30  30  Trade in goods Trade in services  25  25  20  20  15  15  10  10  5  5  0 1977  1983  1989  1995  2001  2007  2013  ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 18 FEBRUARY 2021  0 2019  Sources: Refinitiv Datastream, WTO and Norges Bank  A rising number of countries have been integrated into world trade over the past decades (Chart 5). The gains have been substantial. Poverty has been reduced. Crossborder cooperation has enabled technology to advance faster than it would have done otherwise. Since the financial crisis, growth in global trade has stalled. While service exports have continued to rise, trade in goods as a share of global GDP has been more or less flat in recent years because a number of sources of growth in goods trade are drying up. Large countries such as China and India are now fully integrated into the global economy.
Bank on Newark is a private/public partnership developed to bring unbanked populations into the financial mainstream by providing assistance in establishing bank accounts and receiving financial education. The New York Fed serves as an advisor and data monitor for Bank on Newark and its sister program, Bank on Manhattan, as well. This fall, we will launch our Financial Awareness Video Competition in Newark and Essex County in partnership with the City of Newark. The goal of this video competition is to promote financial awareness in the Greater Newark community. The video competition invites university- and college-level students to produce original videos that encourage young adults to practice sound personal financial decisionmaking. We have successfully launched similar video competitions in Puerto Rico and New York City. Last year’s videos were judged by a panel of professional film makers and leading advertising agencies. The winning videos ran for two weeks as “shorts” in major movie theaters in Manhattan and Queens. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  I thank the Newark Regional Business Partnership, PNC Bank and NJ PAC for inviting me here to speak to you today. I would also like to thank the SGA Group PC for sponsoring this breakfast.

They must have a clear idea where, in what form, and to what extent they can cover their liquidity needs and make the necessary limits and collateral available. In this process, it is crucial that banks interfacing with large customers - enter into agreements with one another, thus creating a high degree of transparency. The goal is to limit the range of unexpected behavioural changes by creating transparency and reaching an understanding. Looking at the issue from this vantage point also makes it clear that a strategy of avoiding transactions is completely contra-productive. Even though it makes sense to avoid settlement dates of forward contracts falling immediately before and after the millennium transition, it is vital that transactions can be carried out and that markets remain liquid. It is at least conceivable that smaller banks or those with a somewhat lower rating will be confronted with an outflow of deposits while the top names in the industry receive an influx of deposits. This generates stress which can only be reduced by efficiently re-channelling funds between banks. It is obvious that the availability of sufficient collateral is crucial. The availability of collateral - just in case - is therefore the central focus of liquidity planning. In the case of Switzerland, the potential re-channelling problem has both an aspect ameliorating the problem and one making it more difficult. What may actually ease the situation is the fact that the cantonal banks, with roughly one-third of the market share, operate with a state guarantee.