samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
So, I will elaborate briefly on the achievements in Turkey in the last four years. Since the 2001 crisis, a comprehensive stabilization program has been put with determination into practice. Tight monetary and fiscal policies along with an intensive structural reform agenda have been the three main pillars of the program. Thanks to these policies, firstly, disinflation has finally succeeded. Inflation targets have been reached in three consecutive years; the inflation rate of 73.2 percent in January 2002 is now down to single digits that is 8 percent as of September 2005 after three decades of high and chronic inflation. Furthermore, not only inflation fell to single digits, but also dynamics of inflation have changed significantly and that ensures the irreversibility of the disinflation process in Turkey. After so many failures in three decades, the turning point came when the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has been granted independence. In May 2001, the CBT Law was amended so that the primary objective of the CBT has been defined as to achieve and maintain price stability, and since November 2001, no credits are extended to the public sector. I should say that these developments have been the milestones of disinflation in Turkey. The change in inflationary dynamics also came as a result of a very transparent communication policy, which has been instrumental in changing the expectations of the public about stabilisation. Policies gained credibility; inflation inertia has decreased sharply; the volatility of inflation too has declined.

I believe that the EU negotiations process will establish the best conceivable framework not only for the continued reform process, but also for the new reforms within the framework of convergence to the EU. The membership will act as a much needed reform anchor for Turkey. The membership process is expected to show its very first impact on increase in predictability, or in other words, decrease in uncertainty in policies and the economy. In a parallel manner, there are two more important benefits of the EU membership process for Turkey. The first one is institutionalisation of policies and the second one is improvement in governance indicators in the country as a whole. Developments in these areas together with increase in credibility would carry the Turkish economy to a better macroeconomic equilibrium point to operate. In the area of trade, though tariffs on both sides were abolished with the completion of the Customs Union, the accession process and the membership would bring about the elimination of non-tariff, administrative and technical barriers and so foreign trade relations with the EU would further develop.22 This would clearly result in welfare gains not for only Turkey but also for the EU due to trade creation effect.
Figure 8  CPIX1 inflation (*) (annual change, percent)  CPI inflation (*) (annual change, percent)  10  10  10  10  8  8  8  8  6  6  6  6  4  4  4  4  2  2  2  2  0  0  0  0  -2  -2  -2  -2  -4  -4  -4  07  09  11  13  07  IPoM mar. 2011  09  11  13  -4  IPoM dic. 2010  (*) Gray area, as from first quarter of 2011, indicates forecast. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE). 10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 9 Inflation deviations from target  (percentage points)  U.K. (1)  Thailand Indonesia Turkey Chile Brazil Canada U.K. Israel Peru Mexico N. Zealand Colombia Hungary Czech Rep. Poland S. Korea South Africa Australia Philippines Switzerland Sweden Eurozone Norway  Israel N. Zealand (2) Indonesia Brazil  S. Korea Canada  Thailand  Hungary  Poland Mexico Eurozone (1)  Philippines Australia (2) Colombia Peru  Sweden Czech Rep.  Chile Switzerland South Africa Norway Turkey  -2  -1  0  1  2  -2  3  -1  0  1  2  3  (1) Harmonized series. (2) Spot inflation at fourth quarter 2010. (3) Inflation projected by March's Consensus Forecasts.

Macroeconomic scenario In the last few months, y-o-y CPI inflation, in line with projections in December’s Report, has hovered around the target, with an annual variation of 2.7 percent at February. Core indicators have returned to positive, yet still low (figure 1). Nonetheless, as I said, even if actual inflation continues to be aligned with the target and our previous forecasts, the latest developments have increased our concern for inflation, as they have in other economies. In the emerging world, growth has proceeded as expected, within an environment where foreign exchange tensions remain and commodity prices continue on the rise, especially for oil and foodstuffs (figure 2). This latter phenomenon has shaped a scenario of higher inflation and, accordingly, higher expectations. Actual inflation has already begun rising in developed economies. In the U.S. it went from 1.1 percent annually in September 2010 to 2.1 percent in February this year, and in the Eurozone it went from 1.9 percent to 2.4 percent over the same period. Worth noting is the behavior of inflation in the U.K., where it has been above the 2-percent target since December 2009 and now stands at somewhat more than 4 percent. Partly as a result of the wide output gaps that persist in these economies, core inflation remains in low levels (figure 3). Emerging economies have seen inflation’s velocity of expansion begin rising, especially for core inflation in Asia.
Finally, the Supervisory Board is an internal ECB body responsible for planning and carrying out the ECB’s tasks in relation to the prudential supervision of credit institutions (see Part 2 of this Annex). 1.2 The Executive Board of the ECB The Executive Board of the ECB is the decision-making body responsible for managing the day-to-day business of the ECB and implementing the policies of the Eurosystem. The Executive Board usually meets once a week and more frequently if necessary. Formally, decisions are adopted by simple majority, although in practice, as in the case of the Governing Council, the Executive Board acts as a collegiate body and seeks consensus. Among other tasks it is responsible for: i) preparing the meetings of the Governing Council, presenting the proposed decisions, and ii) implementing the monetary policy in accordance with the guidelines specified and decisions taken by the Governing Council, giving the necessary instructions to the euro area NCBs. It is composed of the President of the ECB, the Vice-President and four other members selected from among persons of recognised standing and professional experience in monetary or banking matters. The members of the Executive Board are appointed, by qualified majority, by the heads of state or government of the euro area countries, on a recommendation from the Council of the European Union, after it has consulted the European Parliament and the Governing Council of the ECB. The term of office of the members of the Executive Board is eight years and cannot be renewed.

We are very satisfied with our strategy and with the fact that it has given appropriate and effective guidance to monetary policy decisions. Let me also assure you that there will be no change in our firm commitment to our overriding objective of maintaining price stability over the medium term, i.e. avoiding both inflation and deflation. Indeed, this could not be otherwise, since the achievement of the price stability objective is at the core of our mandate in the Treaty. 2. The ECB Recommendation on the adjustment of voting modalities in the Governing Council  On 3 February 2003, the Governing Council adopted a recommendation on the adjustment of its voting modalities, which will prepare the Governing Council for a future expansion of the euro area. With the timely submission of this recommendation, and a hopefully rapid completion of the overall procedure, we hope to preclude any uncertainty about the continued effectiveness of the ECB's governance structures in view of a future expansion of the euro area. In this context, I should like to emphasise how much I appreciate your Committee's efforts to respect an ambitious timetable in order to present in good time the Opinion of the European Parliament as foreseen by the Treaty. As you are aware, the task of coming up with a new voting system presented the Governing Council with a formidable challenge.
And 97% of the money we use, for transacting and storing our wealth, takes the form of electronic claims on banks – what we call ‘commercial bank money’. We use these different forms interchangeably and without really knowing – or needing to know – what is behind them and why they are reliable expressions of the social convention that is money – why they can be  1  The meaning of pound sterling has evolved over time but is thought to date back 1,200 years and referred to physical weight of silver coinage. 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  2  transferred, will be accepted and will hold their value through time. It is our job, at the Bank, to ensure those things. But the forms money takes in society is not fixed. Those forms change as the structure of economies changes, as the ways in which we transact with each other change, as technology makes new forms possible. We think of medieval England as a society using state issued metallic tokens – coins stamped with the monarch’s head – as its main form of money. But transferable debt obligations, recorded on notched sticks of wood, the ‘tally sticks’, also functioned as money, not for day-to-day use, but for large transactions.2 We think likewise of the gold standard period, following Sir Isaac Newton’s coinage reforms, as one in which metallic money dominated.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the importance of obtaining a sovereign rating and issuing a sovereign bond cannot be over-emphasised. By providing access to long term funds, a sovereign bond issue provides wide possibilities for countries to meet financing needs demanded by their growing economies. At the same time, issuers are assured that their financing needs will be met in an orderly and timely manner. This will no doubt result in cost efficient investments in the economy. In a country like ours a sovereign rating and bond issuance will lead to availability of relatively less costly finance for the timely execution of a number of long term projects in sectors like energy, communication, agriculture and mining. The timely execution of such projects would no doubt accelerate economic growth further and impact positively on the high levels of poverty. This workshop has therefore come at the right time when our countries, which just a few years ago were clearly outsiders in the international capital markets, are also now taking financing decisions to fully participate in the international capital markets. I must admit that international financial markets can be a maze for new entrants, and so updating our skills by consulting others becomes a priority and adds a lot of value. I have little doubt that as you remain deliberating here, the sessions will be very interactive and will provide a lot of food for thought. I am certain that everyone here will find this event beneficial.
Overall, economic activity is expected to recover gradually, with annual growth rates posting positive figures starting in the last quarter. However, resource utilization is anticipated to remain below the long-term average for some time. In this context, our medium-term forecasts envisage that the output gap – albeit closing faster than envisaged in the July Report – will remain disinflationary until mid-2012. Although global economic growth is expected to follow a gradual path, commodity prices continued to follow a rising trend in the third quarter, with the growing perception that recovery is on the way (Figure 31). Accordingly, oil prices were above our assumption of USD 60 per barrel in the third quarter (Figure 32). Therefore, the previous assumption of end-year oil price levels are revised up from USD 60 per barrel to USD 70 for 2009, from USD 70 to USD 75 for 2010, and from USD 70 to USD 80 for 2011 and thereafter. Moreover, in line with oil prices, imported input prices are also assumed to increase gradually throughout the forecast horizon in response to the slow recovery in the world economy. Figure 31: S&P Goldman Sachs  Figure 32: Crude Oil (Brent) Prices  Commodity Indices*  (US dollar/barrel)  All Commodities Metal Agriculture  300  Energy Precious Metals  150  *Average of January 2007 has been taken as 100.

These banks provide sophisticated risk management and hedging services to the regional corporates. 11. Let me now turn to how to enhance transparency. Sound corporate governance is fundamental to a successful disclosure-based regime. The financial crisis has highlighted the importance of risk management oversight at the Board level and sparked increased global discussions on the need for better corporate governance practices. In December last year, MAS published its response to the consultation feedback on corporate governance regulations and guidelines. The enhanced rules and guidelines underscore the important role played by the Board in overseeing the soundness of the financial institutions. 12. MAS has also been promoting improvements in the disclosure and quality of information available to investors. Since the third quarter of last year, financial institutions are required to provide Product Highlight Sheets when offering investment products to retail investors. This will provide brief highlights, including an overview of product features and risks, and applies to products that are accompanied by prospectuses, including exchange traded funds, asset-backed securities and structured notes. Since January 2010, real estate investment trusts (REITS) have also been required to hold annual general meetings (AGMs). These mandatory AGMs provide an important channel for communication between REIT managers and investors. This will also increase transparency and raise the accountability of REIT managers to investors. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  13. Last but not least, we remain committed to building diversity in Singapore’s financial markets. We will continue to provide a conducive business environment that encourages innovation.
The close and complex financial links between the banks also mean that a failure can have a knock on effect on the other banks in the system. Particularly problematic in this respect will be the failure of a bank which has a key position in the payment system. That is, a bank which many other banks use as their intermediary when making payments to one another. The mere rumour that such a bank is having problems can thus paralyse the payment system. A further complication is that banks are vulnerable in a special way. If confidence is shaken, deposits and other financing can usually be withdrawn at short notice. The assets can not be disposed of that easily. A bank may be forced to sell its assets at fire sale prices to meet a run; if the worst comes to the worst the bank may become insolvent. Banks are therefore very sensitive to a shift in confidence. A bank failure can thus affect the smooth functioning of the financial system. The more widespread the problem and the larger the risk of the crisis spreading through the system, the greater is the threat to financial stability – and in the end to the real economy. Clearly, the failure of a bank where a lot of people, companies and other banks have their accounts, and which is an important provider of credit and risk management tools, will normally be more problematic than the failure of a small bank.

I think that there are two characteristics of these kinds of systems which merit particular attention. First, the ability to take swift measures and to write down claims quickly. It is important to restore access to the liquidity held in the bank accounts as quickly as possible not only for the insured depositors, but also more generally. Second, the system is constructed such that the principle that owners take the first loss, and after this the creditors in any order of priority that might exist, cannot be circumvented. The swift intervention means that there is no point in running to the bank to “get first in line”. The fact that the possibility of a profit reflects a risk of a loss is fundamental in a market economy, and the system thus ensures that this principle is maintained. …with robust financing of the deposit guarantee A related issue refers to the need to set up a deposit guarantee scheme in such a way that the responsibility for the small depositors is fully internalised by the banking sector not only on paper but also in practice. In addition to the need for a quick pay-out to depositors to avoid the risk of a run, it is also important that the financing of the scheme is robust.
We are happy that during the recent years, our financial sector has also improved in every respect. This is clearly evident when we look around the financial institutions, financial markets and the developments in financial infrastructure. Within the last five years, assets of the licensed banks in the country doubled. Altogether, there has been an addition of over 400 branches of these banks. Other financial institutions including Registered Finance Companies, Leasing Companies, Insurance Companies, Merchant banks, Venture capital firms and Unit Trusts have also grown in sympathy with the banking sector. At the same time, we have also progressed rapidly in the financial infrastructure developments as well. This is particularly visible with the leap forward in the Payment System development as evidenced by the implementation of a Real Time Gross Settlement System in 2003. Now, 84 per cent of the value of country’s payments are settled through the RTGS system. In 2006, we completed the Cheque Image Truncation project, reducing the maximum cheque clearance time to 2 working days, which is another significant achievement. The Colombo Stocks Exchange remains one of the most technically advanced stock exchanges of the world. Soon, we will also have a SWIFT Service Bureau in Sri Lanka and that will help to reduce cost of financial transactions. Together with these infrastructure developments, our banking system has expanded their horizons by introducing several innovative infrastructure facilities and complex financial products as well.

May be, one of the reasons as to why we remain under-developed while developed countries progress faster, may be because of our shortage of human capital, with specific and adequate financial insights and awareness. If this situation is to be rectified, we need to develop well financially-educated people to operate financial institutions. We need well trained people to regulate these institutions. We need the investors to master the art of investment. All in all, we need our future generations to acquire sufficient financial knowledge. At the same time, I hope the knowledge that would be disseminated by this newly formed FSA would, also be valuable to change the attitudes of our financial journalists as well. In that regard, I hope that some of these courses may provide opportunities for our journalists too, to better understand financial service related subjects so that they will be able to provide a more meaningful interpretation of such matters. That too would, hopefully, enhance the general public’s understanding of financial operations and I look forward to such an outcome as well. As we all know there is today a vast majority of people who lack the knowledge to take advantage of the enormous opportunities that may be actually right in front of them. I think we have now taken the initiative to rectify that situation.
Company failure rates are normally pushed up by a recession and in the early 1990s the liquidation rate peaked at close to 3% of the number of UK companies. However, as Chart 5 shows, the failure rate of businesses has remained below 1% in this recession and has recently turned down as the economy has begun to recover. Even adjusting for changes in the legal framework for insolvencies in the mid-2000s, the rate of company liquidation is lower than in the last recession and the increase during the recession has been much lower than expected when the recession first hit. With the pressures on the banks following the financial crisis, we might have expected the opposite result. If the banks had quickly sought to realise value from bad loans made in the global credit boom, we might have seen more business failures. One reason that this has not happened is because of government interventions in the banking sector which have encouraged UK banks to sustain lending to companies from which they might otherwise have withdrawn support. Another mitigating factor against business failures in the recent downturn has been the willingness of the government to allow greater flexibility for companies in  9  The Bank of England Agents’ Report for November shows investment intentions back to the level last recorded in late 2007 and early 2008, before the recession. For more details, see the Bank of England website: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/agentssummary/agsum10nov.pdf.

Measures to raise both the quantity and quality of capital at the large, systemically important firms, known as G-SIFIs, such as Basel III and enhanced prudential standards, are aimed at reducing the probability of failure. The work on recovery and resolution planning, as set out in the Key Attributes for Effective Resolution Regimes, a new global standard published in 2011, aims at mitigating the cost of failure by developing the institutional arrangements and concrete plans to place a failing G-SIFI into resolution. These initiatives at the global level have been mirrored at the national level in many countries. I’d draw special attention to stress testing in its role in reducing the probability of failure and to resolution planning in reducing failure’s social cost, because both represent an important shift of focus for the supervisory community. Both processes focus attention on the far adverse tail of the probability distribution of outcomes for a firm. Technology, financial modeling, and risk management theory and practice have greatly expanded and enhanced the supervisors’ ability to analyze and address those severe adverse outcomes. Another part of the regulatory reform agenda addresses weaknesses in short-term funding markets. Efforts here include seeking to reduce the reliance on intraday credit in the tri-party repo market, to strengthen risk management in the repo and other short-term funding markets, and to make progress toward developing a collateral liquidation mechanism to prevent fire sales of collateral in distressed markets.