On the downside, concerns remain relating to renewed tensions in some financial market segments and related confidence effects. In addition, a stronger or more protracted than expected negative feedback loop between the real economy and the financial sector, renewed increases in oil and other commodity prices, and protectionist pressures, as well as the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances, may weigh on the downside. With regard to price developments, euro area annual HICP inflation was 1.6% in May 2010, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, after 1.5% in April. The rise in inflation over recent months mostly reflects higher energy prices. During the second half of this year some further slight increases in HICP inflation cannot be excluded. Looking further ahead, inflation rates should overall remain moderate. Upward pressures on commodity prices may persist, while euro area domestic price pressures are expected to remain low. Inflation expectations over the medium to longer term continue to be firmly anchored in line with the Governing Council’s aim of keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. This assessment is also reflected in the June 2010 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation in a range between 1.4% and 1.6% for 2010 and between 1.0% and 2.2% for 2011. Compared with the ECB staff projections of March 2010, the ranges have been adjusted somewhat upwards, mainly reflecting higher euro prices for commodities. Available forecasts from international organisations provide a broadly similar picture.

Its work should be completed within one year in order to rapidly ensure the effective disclosure on climate risk. It will formulate recommendations for voluntary disclosure, according to harmonised and therefore comparable methods. This should enable stakeholders and the public to find out about the share of financial sector assets linked to carbon emissions and the sector’s exposure to climate risk. 3. The time horizon challenge: the gradual implementation of stress tests  Stress testing is an integral part of risk management by financial institutions. It is particularly developed in the insurance and reinsurance sectors. Modelling disaster risk and capital levels – as set out in Solvency II – takes into account some of the climate risks. But the current regulatory framework for banks somehow overlooks climate change as a source of risk. Yet this would be the way to handle the question of the time horizon. In this respect, the Act on energy transition provides for the submission by end-2016 of a report on the implementation of a scenario of stress tests representative of the climate risks for banks. However, achieving this raises serious questions. Two approaches are possible. Either comprehensive stress testing, covering all risks and associated asset classes for financial institutions, which would allow supervisors to monitor the total exposure to climate risk. Or granular stress testing, focusing on assets that are more specifically exposed to climate risk, which would be more appropriate for analysing specific sectors and financing needs, such as the financing of the oil sector.