samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Here, both the African countries themselves and we in the industrialised world can make important contributions. Some historical reflections on globalisation and technological changes Despite all the talk of the “new” global economy, the present international economic integration is actually no new phenomenon. During the fifty years prior to the First World War, there was considerable cross-border mobility for both goods and capital. Then, as now, the increased globalisation was driven by trade liberalisation and major technological advances, thanks to the development of railways, steam engines and electricity. In some respects the integration was even more extensive at the beginning of the 20th century than it is today. For instance, foreign direct investment was a much greater percentage of GDP, labour was much more mobile across national borders and even agriculture was more liberalised. However, in other respects it can reasonably be claimed that the world economy is more interlaced now than it was a hundred years ago. The first difference is that a much larger percentage of the countries in the world now participate in the global economy, after opening up their borders to trade and investment and adopting liberal market reforms. Another aspect that should be highlighted is that although the net flows of international capital are lower than prior to the First World War, the total financial flows are much greater today.

While these structural changes are nothing new in themselves, they make substantial demands with regard to a good business climate where new jobs can be created and to a good capacity for change and flexibility in the labour market, to enable employees to seek work in other industries and regions. This can of course be a difficult process for the individual and his or her family, as if often entails a change of career and also of the area in which he or she works, and perhaps even the area where they live. It is important to facilitate this difficult adaptation process, for instance, by offering support in the form of education, retraining and reasonable compensation during the changeover period. In recent years the allocation of jobs abroad, known as offshoring, has been the focus of debates regarding structural changes. This is not a new trend in itself; as the manufacturing industry has become increasingly internationalised during the post-war period, we have seen equivalent patterns. The new element today is that it is jobs in the services sector, which are sometimes well-paid, that are being increasingly offshored. This opportunity has arisen as a result of the major advances in the ICT sector and the steeply falling information costs. Thus, entire sectors where trade was previously impossible at long distances have been opened up to international competition. The increased trend towards offshoring is primarily driven by large cost savings, which can amount to as much as 60 per cent.
Are we now in such a state that by helping the rich, the people who have money to invest, and the people who have businesses to manage makes sense - can the trickle down effect be the best way to get the poor richer. We are on the verge where free competition would mean that everybody would do better. Give everybody equal chance in business and clear and known rules. Ensure the poor would be able to compete by giving them a good education such as the new 12-year compulsory free education under the new Constitution. Making sure that the poor have a reasonable chance to compete rather than stopping the rich from competing might well be the best strategy in the country where economy has taken off and will not look back and go back into the feudal age. That is a major question facing all of us who wish well for Thailand and weigh heavily as a consideration on every action that we take. Let me end my statement by talking about something much nearer to the immediate pace of the recovery. The amorphous leadership is dragging us, but every moment we are climbing resolutely out of the morass, and soon I could see the day when NPLs, although still there, would form only a small portion of the total economy, and Thailand could raise its head once more as a leading country and hopefully not repeat its mistake of overconfidence, caprice and greed.

Moreover, in a particular country, even if its economic fundamentals look good, such a situation can give rise to downward pressure on both the BIS Review 81/1998  -5exchange rate and share prices at the same time as interest rates rise. That suggests that certain investors are reducing all types of holding in the country in question, which is a signal to the country’s decisionmakers that more must be done to enhance general economic policy’s credibility. High standard of discipline throughout economic policy While it is obviously important to discuss how a financial crisis, if it occurs, should be managed, it is at least as important to minimise the risks of a crisis ever materialising. This applies in particular when the financial system is undergoing rapid developments. The transformation in Europe in the coming years must therefore be followed closely. One key factor is economic policy in general. An economy characterised by low, stable inflation, sound government finances and good economic policy credibility also provides a generally stable economic environment. This in turn promotes a sound development of the financial domain. By itself, however, this is not enough. Another highly important matter is the appropriate government supervision of the financial sector. Even central banks that are not directly engaged in this supervision must monitor tendencies in the financial field in order to fulfil their primary tasks of ensuring price stability and financial system stability. There are several reasons for this. Monetary policy is implemented through the financial system’s agents.
Thomas Jordan: What are the consequences of the war in Ukraine for the SNB's monetary policy? Speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the 114th Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 29 April 2022. * * * Madam President of the Bank Council Dear Shareholders Dear Guests I would like to warmly welcome you all to our Annual General Meeting, and I am delighted that this year we are able to meet in person again. The geopolitical situation has changed fundamentally in the past few months. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has shaken us all. Our thoughts are with the victims of this terrible war. Considerations of the economic consequences pale by comparison with this suffering. Nevertheless, such deliberations are also important for the citizens of Switzerland, and the Swiss National Bank is therefore working intensively on addressing the impact the war will have. On the one hand, we have to properly contextualise the immediate economic effects. On the other hand, we also have to address questions pertaining to the longer term. I will begin my speech by looking at the closely interconnected global economy as we knew it until just recently, the gains in prosperity it brought, and what it meant for monetary policy. I will go on to explain how the consequences of the war that can already be felt are influencing our current monetary policy.

However, should there be signs of a strengthening and spread in inflationary pressure, we will not hesitate to take the necessary measures to ensure price stability in Switzerland in the medium term. Possible longer-term consequences of the war for monetary policy So much for monetary policy today. However, what could be the longer-term consequences of the war? One key issue in my view is how we are going to deal going forward with the dependencies that have arisen as a result of globalisation. Specifically, which countries will still trade with each other in which goods and services and to what extent? We do not yet have definitive answers to these new questions. From the current perspective, however, it appears possible that in the medium term we will be living in a world that is less integrated than it is today. I would like to focus here on this question: What would a less globalised world mean for monetary policy? There would initially be the impact on inflation and the economy, in other words on the two variables at the core of monetary policy. With a reduction in the division of labour owing to a fragmentation of the global economy, production costs for many goods would rise again. As long as this disintegration persisted, it would be likely to trigger more protracted inflationary pressure.
Increasingly our focus here has shifted towards the financing of small and medium-sized  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  enterprises, which heavily rely on bank financing and in many cases are struggling to retain access to credit. These companies may be small, but when they face a funding problem, it is a big problem for all of us, given that they employ around three-quarters of the euro area’s workforce. In June, we decided to launch a series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations – TLTROs – to ensure that banks have sufficient liquidity to lend to the real economy. The TLTROs have been designed to encourage banks to increase their lending to the nonfinancial corporate sector. In addition, we have also taken measures to underpin specific market segments that play a key role in the financing of the economy. Last week, the Governing Council decided to start buying high-quality asset-backed securities and covered bonds in October. We will purchase both existing and newly issued ABS, which are simple, transparent and real in the sense that the underlying assets consist of loans to the euro area non-financial private sector. Let me respond to the concerns recently expressed about the risks posed to the integrity of our balance sheet. It is worth recalling that senior tranches of ABS have proven to be highquality assets. According to the Association of Financial Markets in Europe, only 0.12% of European residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) outstanding in mid-2007 have defaulted since then – compared with 22.05% for US RMBS.

Mario Draghi: Keynote speech at the Eurofi Financial Forum Keynote speech by Mr Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, at the Eurofi Financial Forum, Milan, 11 September 2014. *  *  *  Summary We are facing a set of conditions – low growth and low inflation, high debt and high unemployment – that can only be addressed by concerted action on both the demand and supply sides of the economy. This requires that all actors – both at national and European levels – play their parts in line with their respective mandate as laid down in the EU Treaties. No monetary or fiscal stimulus can be successful if not accompanied by the right structural policies – policies that foster potential growth and instil confidence. Investment has been one of the great casualties of the crisis. From peak to trough business investment in the euro area decreased by around 20% since 2008, against 15% in the 1992 recession. We will not see a sustainable recovery unless this changes. A decisive rise in investment is essential to bring inflation where we would want to see it, to kick-start the economy and to bring down unemployment. There are two key areas where national and European level government action can help revive investment. First, the regulatory environment should be made more favourable to economic growth. Second, companies need to have access to more diversified sources of financing: the launch of a capital markets union could contribute to achieving this.
Their many initiatives include “Women of the Year” programmes to recognise female employees for outstanding success, as well as their Women’s Initiative Network (WIN) which provides a supportive platform for sharing and engagement among Barclays employees worldwide. 24. Amongst us, there are many women leaders who have blazed the trail in the industry. The moderator for today’s panel discussion, Deborah Ho, has had an illustrious career with financial institutions in Asia and New York and is an IBF Fellow. Deborah serves on the committees of Barclays’ Global Investment Bank Diversity Council and Women’s Initiative Network. She is also Barclays’ representative on BoardAgender. 25. The list goes on and thank you each and every one of you, for inspiring in your own way and for being a role model. Closing remarks 26. It is critical for us to diversify our workforce, especially since it has been shown over and over again that the best performing organisations are those who tap on all of their employees’ talents, both men and women alike. In fact, according to another McKinsey report, gender-diverse companies are 15% more likely to outperform their non-diverse counterparts. 2 27. We must do more in our own capacity to promote and encourage talent development in the financial sector, being an inspiration in our own way. Not simply for the benefit of employers, but to allow every individual an equal opportunity to pursue their goals and dreams, and strive for their best.

The Singapore Diversity Action Committee found that the SGX-listed companies saw 10.2% of board seats held by women in 2015, a notable increase from 7.6% in the previous year; with large companies leading the growth. However, if we compare to other centres like the UK and Hong Kong, the women’s representation on boards is 26.1% and a slightly higher 11.5% respectively. 5. The FWA Gender Survey, results for which will be discussed in depth later, corroborates these findings. While we are heartened that the women participation numbers are healthy at the lower levels, we need to remain focused on encouraging the contribution of women at all levels, and especially at the more senior positions. 6. Singapore’s greatest asset is its people, and developing talent must be a top priority. In MAS, we place great emphasis on talent development, progression and retention in the industry. You may know that we have recently formed the Financial Sector Tripartite Committee (FSTC), which I co-chair with Mr Patrick Tay, Assistant Secretary-General, National Trades Union Congress (NTUC). FSTC brings together the industry associations, government and labour movement, to foster a financial sector workforce that is versatile and well-equipped to seize the opportunities and adapt to the changing needs of the financial services industry. Our overall objective is to build a financial sector that not only reinforces Singapore’s position as a major international financial centre, but most importantly, one that provides good jobs for Singaporeans. 7. Allow me to elaborate on our approach. 8.
0112  1011  0711  0411  0111  1010  0710  0709  0709  0409  0109  1008  0708  0408  0108  1007  0707  0407  0107  4.0 1006  2 0706  4.5 0406  3  0410  5.0  0110  4  6.0  1009  5  6.5  *Calculated using linear interpolation of several maturity yields in the CBT Expectations Survey. Yields are from the second survey period. Source: CBT. BIS Review 103/2009  5  Distinguished Members of the Press, As I mentioned at the beginning of my speech, current global conditions play an instrumental role in inflation developments. Inflation rates have plummeted since the second half of 2008 due to downward pressures arising from demand and cost conditions. This downward trend also prevailed in the second quarter of 2009 (Figure 10 and 11). The trend of consumer price inflation in developed markets turned negative in May/June 2009 and dropped to –0.56 percent in June. Consumer price inflation in emerging markets also continued to lose ground to become 4 percent in June. In other words, inflation rates started to post a significant downward trend globally from the last quarter of 2008 onwards.

Playing late relies on having an uncannily good eye and strong nerve. It runs the risk of having to react fast and furiously to avoid missing the ball entirely. An earlier front foot movement would avoid that risk, allowing a more gradual movement forward. This is the way Ian Bell, the Warwickshire and England batsman, plays his cricket. If he were on the MPC, he’d be called a hawk. 9  6  Stein (2014)  BIS central bankers’ speeches  So which is the better strategy? Benjamin Disraeli told us there are lies, damned lies and statistics. Here my analogy between cricket and the economy breaks down. Economic statistics, as we know, do sometimes lie. Cricket statistics, typically, do not. They tell us that Joe Root averages 43 in test matches to Ian Bell’s 45. In other words, it is a close run thing with the odds at present slightly favouring the front foot. But a good run of scores from either player could easily tilt the balance. That, in a nutshell, is where the MPC finds itself today. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  References Anderson, A and Maule, B “Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations”, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014Q2. Barnett, A, Batten, S, Chiu, A, Franklin, J and Sebastia-Barriel, M “The UK productivity puzzle”, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014Q2.
It’s notable that later in the same poem I used to open my speech, John Donne writes, “if a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less.” The ongoing uncertainty around Brexit and its eventual outcome is a cause of concern not just for the UK economy, but many of its European trading partners. It’s impossible to predict what the spillover effects will be when Brexit finally reaches a conclusion. 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  We face similar uncertainty on our own shores regarding trade tensions. I frequently hear from my business contacts that they’re holding off on making investments until the landscape is clearer. And the ongoing uncertainty in both of these situations, rather than the day to day ups and downs, has become a key driver of business decisions. Trade negotiations and Brexit are top of mind when it comes to uncertainty. But geopolitical risks and political upheaval are affecting regions across the globe. It’s striking that in almost every corner of the world geopolitical tensions are threatening to put the brakes on growth. Even if the outcomes of current negotiations are ultimately positive—be they between the U.S. and China, or the UK and the European Union (EU)—the uncertainty created by current events is no doubt having a lasting effect on the economic conditions we’re experiencing today. Furthermore, the interconnectedness of our economies means that literally, no man is an island. If one economy starts to struggle, the spillover effects onto others can take hold rapidly.

The general trend in the market has been to charge SMEs with high interest rates relative to the large scale corporate sector because of the perceived high risk they are supposed to present. Distinguished Invited Guests, my view is that this presumed high risk profile associated with SMEs can be effectively managed by banks if they make the necessary effort to understand the sector and build expertise in dealing with its unique characteristics. I trust that you will double up your effort in building the expertise necessary for your bank to be a major lender to the SME sector. The issue of interest rates is of particular concern to us at the central bank. In response to the current situation, the Bank of Zambia recently took measures aimed at facilitating the reduction in commercial banks’ lending rates with the view to increasing access to credit by private individuals and business entities. Some progress has been made in this area and we are monitoring the situation in the market to ensure that borrowers are enjoying a reduction in their effective lending rates. We do not want the reduction in the base lending rates to be cosmetic, but should be reflected in lower effective lending rates for measures taken so far to be meaningful. Furthermore, with the reduction in the corporate tax rate for banks recently announced by the Minister of Finance in his 2012 Budget, the expectation is for a further reduction in lending rates by commercial banks going forward.
I see this as a reasonable possibility, and therefore I think it might be possible that the decline in reserve balances has pushed up overnight rates a bit over time. 17 At this point, I see no evidence that we are at, or close to, the “steep” portion of the demand curve. 18 Let’s run through some places where evidence of such a possibility might be found. To begin with, if we were closing in on the “steep” part, I might have expected to see more above-IOR lending in the unsecured overnight markets, as at least some banks each day found themselves short of reserves and had to borrow them from another bank. In fact, the amount of such above-IOR lending remains low as a share of the overnight bank funding market, as shown in Figure 9. 19 I might also have expected to see shifts in bank payments behavior—for example, more daylight overdrafts or more effort by banks to “optimize” their payment flows— but I have not seen this either. But, most fundamentally, I might have observed a day-to-day relationship between shifts in the stock of reserves and overnight interest rates. Figure 10 shows a scatterplot of daily changes in reserve balances against daily changes in the spread between the IOR rate and the effective federal funds rate; there is no visible relationship. 16  The classic paper on this topic is Poole (1968).

Figure 3 shows a broad selection of secured and unsecured overnight money market rates; it is clear that increases in the target range for the federal funds rate have passed through fully and immediately to the other rates, as expected and intended. Moreover, I have been very encouraged by the relative stability and high degree of comovement among short-maturity money market rates. And second: the balance sheet. 9 The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet grew markedly earlier this decade as a result of large-scale asset purchase programs, which were undertaken to support the economic recovery by easing financial conditions to a greater extent than could be achieved solely through reducing the federal funds rate. For many years, the FOMC has indicated its intention that the Federal Reserve will, in the longer run, hold no more securities than necessary to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively, and that it will hold primarily Treasury securities. 10 Starting late last year, the Federal Reserve began a program to reduce its securities holdings by reinvesting principal maturities only to the extent that they exceed gradually increasing caps. 11 This gradual and predictable approach is intended to reduce the balance sheet’s size at an appropriate pace while supporting good market functioning and mitigating the risk of sharp or outsized asset price reactions. The charts in Figure 4 show the evolution of the Federal Reserve’s securities portfolio.