samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Reports from the regional network indicate that capacity utilisation is high in the construction industry and in manufacturing, particularly among suppliers to the petroleum industry. There were reports of shortages of engineers and project managers. Many of our contact enterprises in corporate services also reported increasing skills shortages. On the other hand, idle capacity is reported in retail trade and in household services. There are limitations to how much the supply of Norwegian labour can increase ahead. Labour participation rates are at a historically high level, particularly when taking into account demographic developments. Developments in the labour market are similar to the profile observed ahead of the period of accelerating wage and cost inflation that started in 1998. Several factors can explain why wage growth has been moderate so far during this cyclical utpurn. An increase in inward labour migration and the opportunities provided by an international labour market may have resulted in greater emphasis on the high wage level in Norway relative to our trading partners. Inward labour migration has also contributed to reducing bottlenecks in some industries. Developments in region North are fairly similar to the situation in the other regions of the country. Region North reported prospects of solid growth in most industries. Manufacturing, retail trade and the local government and hospital sectors expected moderate growth in investment. The service sector expected zero growth in investment. There were reports of moderate employment growth in all sectors, with the exception of the local government and hospital sectors where growth was unchanged.

Bandid Nijathaworn: Quantitative models and tools for good risk management Opening address by Dr Bandid Nijathaworn, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the 2nd SEACEN-OCC Advanced Seminar on Quantitative Techniques for Macro Surveillance and Determining Resilience of the Banking Sector, Bangkok, 3 September 2007. *  *  *  Let me begin by extending a warm welcome to all of you to Bangkok, and to the second SEACEN-OCC Advanced Seminar on Quantitative Techniques for Macro Surveillance and Determining Resilience of the Banking Sector. The Bank of Thailand is pleased to be hosting this seminar, jointly with the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the SEACEN Centre. Today’s seminar reflects another important effort in forging a closer cooperation and network between US regulators and the central banks and regulators of the Southeast Asian region. Such a close tie is most valuable for it is a platform that helps facilitate supervisory coordination that is necessary for an efficient home-host relationship, as well as for exchanging views on important market developments and supervisory issues such as on financial innovation, on the implementation of Basel II, and on accounting standards. Going forward, such a close tie will be even more valuable, because an important component of a good macro-surveillance process is an open and timely dialogue, and exchange of views among regulators from different jurisdictions.
Even if the modal forecast reverts to the inflation target, the distribution around that forecast associated with potential second round effects may also justify action. This was part of the rationale for the MPC’s February 2023 decision. 12. To understand how this shock was seen in real time, see the discussion in Box B of the MPC’s Monetary Policy Report - May 2022, entitled ‘How will the Russian invasion of Ukraine affect the UK economy?’ 13. See Pill. H. (2022). ‘Returning inflation to target,’ speech by Huw Pill at Kings College, London, 6 July. 14. It is important to note that the military threat to Ukraine was foreseen by the time of the Russian invasion. However, (1) it would have to have been clear much earlier – at least a year earlier – if monetary policy were to be able to contain the initial inflationary impulse from higher energy prices; and (2) as the military threat grew, market pricing of natural gas futures rose. It is these futures prices that feed into the setting of UK household utility bills, so the relevant surprise was the earlier one in commodity markets, which was only visible to the MPC in real time. 15. This transmission occurred via the OfGEM mechanism for setting the ‘price cap’ on UK household utility bills, as explained here ‘Energy price cap explained,’ OfGEM  . 16.

Philipp Hildebrand: The global financial crisis – analysis and outlook Summary of a speech by Mr Philipp Hildebrand, Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the NZZ-Podium, Zurich, 5 February 2009. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  We are currently experiencing the most severe and most complex financial crisis in several decades. It has affected many people around the globe, and finger-pointing and casting blame happen all too easily. Yet only a careful investigation of the responsibilities is likely to point to ways in which our financial system, and ultimately our economy, can be made more resilient once this crisis has been overcome. Financial markets react to incentives, and these incentives were misplaced in the past. It is in our power to start lobbying for clearly defined and risk-limiting conditions. If the responsible authorities wish to enact more stringent regulation, we ought to give them our unconditional support. The National Bank is determined to employ all the means at its disposal to ward off an economic contraction. BIS Review 12/2009  1
But the analysis implies that the optimal policy rule – defining how the policy rate should respond to economic developments – does not change if and when the degree of uncertainty in the economy increases. My impression is that this result did not sit comfortably with monetary policymakers. And – as is often the case in the academic literature – a result proving something did not matter proved to be the catalyst for a research agenda seeking to demonstrate that it did. Engineering again provided some of the inspiration for this research programme. But different strands of the engineering literature were taken up, which – when filtered through the macroeconomic lens – offered different implications for monetary policy. One strand of research developed from so-called Brainard uncertainty.13 If uncertainty entered the system via the parameters of the economy, rather than as shocks to the economy, then the consequences were different. For example, if the slope of the Phillips curve governing the relationship between inflation and unemployment were uncertain, then the Brainard view implied that the monetary policy response should be attenuated relative to the case when such uncertainty were absent. And the greater the uncertainty about the slope, the greater the attenuation required. The intuition behind this result is reasonably straightforward. Uncertainty about the slope of the Phillips curve introduces scope for the monetary policy response to any specific shock to be mis-calibrated. That mis-calibration threatens to introduce additional volatility into the inflation outlook beyond that created by the shock itself.

A German exporter selling goods both in the USA and in Sweden could, for instance, have kept its profits up fairly well by determining its prices in dollars in the USA and in Swedish kronor in Sweden. At the same time, increased competition should in general mean that wholesalers and retailers in the domestic market have greater difficulty in passing import price increases on to the consumer channel. The general demand situation in the world also has great significance for the capacity to raise prices in all channels - low utilisation of resources subdues price pressure and high resource utilisation increases price pressure. However, our knowledge of pricing behaviour among both exporters to Sweden and domestic operators is limited. This means that assessments of the effects on inflation of a particular development in the krona are uncertain. An even more difficult task is to make assessments regarding the krona exchange rate during the forecast period. In the medium to long term, we do not obtain much guidance from the theoretical models for determining the exchange rate. Almost all models are based on the real exchange rate creating balance in a country’s foreign trade. A particular basket of goods shall, for instance, cost approximately the same here as in Germany. If it is -as is the case today - cheaper in Sweden, we will increase our exports and have a surplus on the current account - which we have.
Were central banks via tighter monetary policy to attempt to stop such a fundamentally motivated development, it could instead prove costly to the economy. Do asset prices and credit play an independent role for the real economy? Having said this, we must ask ourselves the following questions: (1)  Is there reason via monetary policy to reduce disturbances that can be expected to have a substantial impact on the macroeconomy if this did not affect the forecasts of inflation in the medium term? (2)  Is there any information in asset prices and debt levels that is systematically not taken account of when forecasting inflation? 2  Heikensten, L. & Vredin, A. (2002), “The art of targeting inflation”, Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review  BIS Review 40/2004  3  Allow me to begin with the first question. Besides the task of maintaining price stability, most central banks also have a role as regards financial stability. If systemically important banks are hit by a crisis or by losses large enough to cause a sharp decrease in the credit supply or a disturbance in the payment system, this results in considerable macroeconomic disturbances. If financial stability is threatened by a credit expansion in such a way that systemically important banks have not heeded a macroeconomic risk that has been identified by the central bank, this could therefore need to be taken into account when taking interest rate decisions.

Those huge pools of savings currently available can be intermediated locally instead of going through financial systems located in advanced economies. Regional financial markets would have to complemented and underpinned by monetary arrangements. Asian countries are working on and implementing progressively such schemes through the Chiang Mai initiative. We, in Europe, monitor closely those evolutions as well as the progressive emergence of the RMB as an international currency. As you know, we have a long and successful history of economic, financial and monetary integration. We have learned a lot and, still recently, gone through many crises and difficulties. Nevertheless the Euro, which did not exist fifteen years ago, stands today as one of two major world currencies. We certainly don’t pretend our own experience should constitute a model or an example to be followed. I have, however, one certainty: a strong and permanently renewed spirit of cooperation has allowed us to overcome many obstacles and to reap many benefits in terms of prosperity and stability. In a world full of opportunities, but also increasingly complex, this may be an inspiration for all of us. I thank you for your attention. References Caballero, Ricardo J., 2006. “The Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages.” 4th ECB Central Banking Conference, Frankfurt, November. Caballero, Ricardo J., Emmanuel Farhi and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008a. “Financial Crash, Commodity Prices, and Global Imbalances.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall, pp 1–55. Caballero, Ricardo J., Emmanuel Farhi and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008b. “An Equilibrium Model of “Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates.” American Economic Review, 98:1, p358–393.
First, greater labour market efficiency, through lower temporary employment and improved employability, especially in the case of less skilled workers, could boost economic growth potential. Second, productivity gains thanks to investment in human capital, greater innovation and the elimination of inappropriate barriers to competition would also have beneficial effects on economic progress in the medium term. Before I close I would like to mention, among the structural challenges facing the Spanish economy, those facing the banking sector. Spanish banks do indeed still face challenges, such as reducing their volume of non-productive assets, improving their capital structure and profitability, strengthening their reputation and making optimum use of technological developments.

Although the general government “structural deficit” is not directly observable and, therefore, its calculation is based on assumptions subject to a high degree of uncertainty, it is a useful indicator of the underlying state of public finances. This indicator will, moreover, play a more important role in the new phase of fiscal policy due to begin, in the event that the EU Council eventually rules that Spanish general government is no longer in an excessive deficit situation. As I have already mentioned, the latest data point in this direction. In fact, exiting the “corrective arm” of the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact would involve Spain automatically entering the “preventive arm”.
Similarly, Singapore has developed into a regional hub by supplying manufacturers and service providers in booming Southeast Asian economies. And not only does it participate in the Association of South East Asian Nations, but it also has a far reaching trade agreement with New Zealand, which is expected to develop into a closer economic partnership that will in time also include Hong Kong and 5 Japan. These countries are not unique in this regard. Recognising that success in world markets requires a critical mass in order to foster competition and competitiveness and to acquire a measure of bargaining power, countries the world over are turning to regional arrangements as a stepping stone 6 to gaining a foothold in the global economy. They know that belonging to a regional grouping also makes it easier to attract FDI and to absorb the necessary technology and management expertise that can be applied elsewhere in the economy. Such arrangements also provide members with a first-hand experience of the negotiation process. The World Trade Organisation estimates that 243 regional 7 8 trade agreements are in force today, covering at least 129 countries. Regional groupings moreover are not only increasing in number, but they are also becoming deeper in scope, encompassing areas 9 of policy other than trade and investment. This brings me to the first point I wish to make today. The experience of other countries shows that the capacity necessary to deal with the competitive forces of globalisation can be optimally built in stages through participation in regional arrangements.

At this point, monetary policy must broaden its scrutiny to involve every important aspect from the external environment, domestic economic cycle as well as structural features important for the future monetary policy stance. The bottom line is that in a dynamic external environment we must take care about structural bottlenecks, regardless of whether they are related to the transitional stage of our economies or induced by the global crisis. I have tried to tackle some of them, which I believe will be discussed further on the high level Governors panel or additionally elaborated in the next sessions within the research papers. As I mentioned at the beginning, this is a broad topic, which is very important for the monetary policy transmission effectiveness. Therefore, I appreciate your attendance and contribution to our Conference, in sharing experiences and broadening our overall knowledge on these issues. I wish you interesting conference and fruitful discussion! 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
When one knows all about a particular “signature” or about a particular country, there is much less reason to embark into blind crisis contagion. Here is the motto I would like to be 5  BIS Review 52/2000  accepted globally by market participants: “Let us judge the quality and creditworthiness of any particular signature upon its own peculiar fundamentals, upon its own, particular, assets and liabilities”. –  On the euro, I want to stress that the euro zone has adopted a sound macro policy and has embarked in a fairly comprehensive program of structural reforms. These reforms will take time to be fully completed. But they have already boosted economic growth, job creation and the restructuring of firms. I am impressed by what has been achieved during the past years and National Central Banks as well as the ECB are strongly encouraging governments and corporate businesses to foster structural reforms and business restructuring in the future. The Eurosystem, which is the guardian of the euro for the sake of the people of Europe, knows that our fellow citizens want the single currency to be at least as solid as were their previous national currencies: in France, to give only one example, 96% of the people are calling for the euro to be at least as solid as the Franc; needless to say that it is the same in Germany and in all other countries of the Monetary Union.

FDI), in line with the progress mode in the financial sector solidity and soundness; recent crises illustrated disruptive capital outflows generated by external debts highly concentrated on short-term maturities. 1.2  Improved reserve and debt management  To mitigate the volatility of capital flows and especially short term flows and reap the benefits of capital account liberalization, one should adopt a risk management strategy that involves a system for monitoring and assessing the risks and liquidity of the economy as a whole, including at a sectoral level. The international community may assist in developing best practices related to reserve and debt management: let me quote for example the more stringent publishing obligations on net foreign exchange reserves adopted within the context of the IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) or the IMF and the World Bank initiative to promote good practices in reserve and sovereign liability management. As recommended by the Financial Stability Forum Working Group on Capital Flows, an improved risk management by the banking sector is desirable, particularly as regards banks in emerging markets receiving flows and international banks extending cross-border credit, with the help of revised Guidelines from the Basel Committee on managing liquidity risk. Let me also note that implementing a strategy assessing the liquidity risk and foreign exposure of the economy as a whole calls for an adequate balance sheet information from both the public and the private financial and corporate sectors.
Lars Heikensten: The integration of European banking - some regulatory challenges Speech by Mr Lars Heikensten, Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, at the seminar “The Integration of Financial Markets in Europe”, at the “Riksdagshuset” (Swedish Parliament), Stockholm, 21 April 2004. *  *  *  Thank you for inviting me to share my views on the integration of financial markets in Europe. We have just heard about the positive role capital markets might have in fostering economic growth and stability. We have also heard about how the regulatory process has been changed to promote the growth of an integrated European market for capital and securities. It is my hope that also the area of bank regulation will become part of this simplified process. It is certainly needed. Compared to the European securities market, the banking market is lagging many years behind in terms of integration. True, large companies may have access to foreign bank funding as well as to international debt and equity markets. When it comes to choosing your bank at the retail level, however, Swedish households and small and medium sized companies are left to a market which is to more than 90 percent dominated by Swedish banks. This situation is shared by most other EU countries. This is not a problem in itself. Swedish (or, in general, domestic) banks might very well be excellent. However, most of us tend to believe that cross-border integration, just as trade, is something good because it increases competition.

(ii)  proactive macro-prudential regulation to prevent unsustainable debt and limit foreign currency borrowing can be useful to reduce the procyclicality of financial flows, avoid excessive risk-taking and ensure an orderly external sector adjustment. (iii)  Finally, one could also explore state contingent financing instruments, such as GDP linked bonds, which could also offer innovative means to smooth external financing needs and avoid expanding scarce resources on assistance programs. However, prevention can never cover all risks and so, we need a stronger GFSN. As highlighted by the IMF the global financial safety net, although larger, has also become more fragmented and asymmetric. Some of its key building blocks have not been fully tested, and some of its key aspects suffer to various degrees from being costly, unreliable, and lacking adequate policy incentives. This shared diagnosis offers a key opportunity to strengthen the GFSN. Reserves, swap lines and Regional Financial Arrangements (RFAs) are not a substitute for having a strong, well-resourced IMF at the heart of it, on the back of the recent approval of the 2010 Quota and Governance reforms, which has strengthened the Fund legitimacy. From our perspective, three elements stand out: First, identify potential ways to improve the use of existing IMF facilities, notably precautionary facilities, and/or consider the possible creation of new facilities. The objective here is to mitigate stigma, without creating moral hazard.