Also, some qualitative indicators of services activity and employment showed a decrease, which may indicate that the weakness is beginning to spread to these activities. The slowdown in employment, along with the gradual decline in consumer confidence in Q3, points to more modest growth of private consumption, until now the main driver of growth. Against this background, in September, the European Central Bank (ECB) revised its macroeconomic forecasts for the euro area as a whole. Expected GDP growth was revised downwards, especially for 2020. Specifically, growth of rates of 1.1% and 1.2% are now projected for 2019 and 2020, respectively, in both cases below the rates projected In June. 3/18  In the medium term, activity is expected to recover, underpinned by favourable financial conditions and a slightly expansionary fiscal policy, in the event of a gradual disappearance of political and trade uncertainty. Despite this downward revision to macroeconomic forecasts, the ECB’s Governing Council emphasised the existence of significant downside risks to the baseline scenario, arising mainly from a possible escalation of trade tensions. It should be taken into account, as I have just stressed, that the baseline scenario of the ECB’s macroeconomic projections, like those of the Banco de España, which I will refer to below, are based on the assumption that there will be a Brexit agreement and trade tensions will dissipate. Inflation in the euro area, meanwhile, remains low. In Q3, inflation developments were marked by the downward dynamic of energy prices and the persistence of moderate rates for services.

Vibrant economic research is needed to help us dealing with these challenges, notably in three key areas. The first relates to the economics and implications of blockchain and crypto-assets, and will be the topic of David Andolfatto’s keynote lecture and of the concluding panel discussion: What are the implications for the financial system in general, and for central banks in particular? Will Central banks’ monetary policy become less effective and, if so, are Central Bank Digital Currencies a way to restore their effectiveness? The second one, which will be addressed by several research papers today, relates to the financing of the economy: Do alternative and innovative ways to finance the economy (marketplace lending, ICOs, alternative scoring models) perform better than traditional financial intermediation without increasing the risks? What roles can incumbent banks play if financial services are to be driven by data? The third one is not on the agenda for today’s conference, but should be on the research agenda, relates to the use of artificial intelligence in finance: What would be the dynamics of financial markets if most participants were to rely on AI and machine learning techniques? How should regulation and supervision practices adapt to ensure that AI behaves in accordance with a financial and social optimum? Conclusion I would like to conclude my intervention by quoting Bill Gates himself: “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction”.