samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Progress has been made in several areas, but the problems’ complexities and the political difficulties to deal with them are huge. This, coupled with the delicate position of consumers and firms, has translated in deteriorating economic expectations in the region, anticipating a recession during this year. The situation in the United States, while less severe than that in Europe, is also complex, especially because of the slow recovery and little room for fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the economy. The emerging world, Chile included, will undergo a period of slower growth than in the past few years. Market consensus forecasts, last week’s IMF projections, and also those in our December 2011’s Monetary Policy Report point in the same direction (table 1). Most recently, the information coming from the U.S. shows a somewhat better performance than was forecast some weeks back, but does not modify medium-term problems and risks affecting its economy. In fact, last week the Federal Reserve extended from mid-2013 to end-2014 the period during which it would hold the fed funds rate at the minimum level where it is today, which reflects the magnitude of the problem. Meanwhile, information from China reveals its economy is growing strongly. It also shows a relief of inflationary pressures in that country, providing more space for policy-making. The prices of commodities, especially copper, have recovered significantly in the past few weeks. Actually, today’s price of this metal is substantially higher than we had forecast for the year.

Are the 16 million unemployed people in the European Union merely an equilibrium, on the one hand, and a statistic, on the other? But for most people the labour market is the market where – for better or worse, in sickness or in health – they sell their time and their skills at a market price. That price determines, in large part, their opportunities and economic welfare. Wage rates have a much greater significance in influencing the distribution of real incomes than do the prices of almost anything else. As a result, the labour market cannot be divorced from broader social and political considerations. If their terminology and language are sometimes insensitive, what do economists have to offer by way of ideas about unemployment? The prize for the most important idea and most insensitive terminology surely goes to Milton Friedman for the concept of the natural rate of unemployment. I shall discuss shortly the significance of this idea for monetary policy. But for a more elegant advocacy of a similar position it is necessary to delve further back in history. This month sees the 75th anniversary of the publication of what Milton Friedman described as John Maynard Keynes’ best book: A Tract on Monetary Reform. It is undoubtedly one of the most persuasive polemics ever written on the subject of monetary policy. To coincide with publication in December 1923, Keynes gave a lecture to the National Liberal Club in which he talked about “the triple evils of modern society”.
The second risk unfortunately follows from the first, namely that increasing pressure on interest margins can tempt lenders to seek higher returns on assets through riskier loans, and to concentrate more on short-term funding thereby increasing the mismatch. We saw this before the financial crisis broke in 2007 as lenders ventured into higher LTV, sub-prime and commercial property lending without having adequate risk management in place. We also saw this in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This diversification was generally not successful, and in some cases fatal. Since the height of the crisis societies have generally reduced their commercial property loans, and non-prime has declined too. The main area of growth has been buy-to-let lending, which is true not just for societies but for lenders in general. Now, I don’t want to demonise buy-to-let lending. We are watching carefully, and for the societies we see no evidence today that BTL loans are of poorer quality than prime owner-occupier, and we see a fair amount of stability over time in maximum LTV and minimum rental cover. But, we are watching carefully, and of course applying stress testing across all loans. Looked at more broadly, we are not seeing an upward surge in high LTV lending of the sort that was so damaging in the past, but there is an upward direction to the – admittedly small – share of lending at high LTV and high loan-to-income (ie the two together).

Indeed, since we announced a combination of unconventional measures to provide additional monetary policy accommodation in June 2014, financial conditions have eased considerably. Risk-free interest rates have shifted downward at all maturities (Chart 1), reducing the basis 1 / 12  BIS central bankers' speeches  used by banks and financial markets in determining financing conditions. Chart 1: EONIA forward curves estimated from OIS (percentages per annum)  This has been reflected in the sizeable reduction in bank lending rates for euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs) and households since June 2014 – which have declined by around 130 basis points and 110 basis points, respectively – as well as in the decline of NFCs’ cost of market-based debt financing (Chart 2). Chart 2: Nominal cost of debt financing for euro area NFCs by component (percentages per annum)  2 / 12  BIS central bankers' speeches  NFCs have also benefited from an increasingly diversified financing structure, with debt securities issuance and other forms of market-based financing substituting for bank-based sources of financing (Chart 3 and Chart 4).
Source: National Satistics Institute (INE),  15  Table 1 Domestic scenario (annual change, percent)  2015  2016 Dec.16 Report  GDP Domestic demand Domestic demand (w/o inventory change) Gross fixed capital formation Total consumption Goods and services exports Goods and services imports Current account (% of GDP) Gross national savings (% of GDP) Nominal gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)  2.3 2.0 1.7 -0.8 2.4 -1.8 -2.7 -2.0 21.4 23.6  1.5 1.1 2.0 -0.6 2.8 0.1 -1.4 -1.7 19.3 22.2  2017 (f) Mar.17 Report 1.6 1.1 2.0 -0.8 2.8 -0.1 -1.6 -1.4 20.2 23.2  Dec.16 Report 1.5-2.5 2.6 2.0 0.7 2.4 2.0 4.1 -1.9 19.2 21.7  2018 (f) Mar.17 Report 1.0-2.0 2.3 1.9 0.2 2.5 1.6 4.3 -0.9 20.3 22.5  Mar.17 Report 2.25-3.25 4.1 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.7 7.2 -2.1 20.5 22.6  (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 7 Real lending by type of credit (*) (annual change, percent)  25  25  Consumer  20  20 Housing  15  Commercial  15  10  10  5  5  0  0  -5  -5 02  05  08  11  14  17  (*) Horizontal dashed lines show last 15-year average for each series. Source: Central Bank of Chile using SBIF data.

Gent Sejko: Launch of the EBRD Transition Report 2017-18 Opening remarks by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the launching of the EBRD Transition Report 2017-18, Tirana, 11 April 2018. * * * Dear Mr Colangeli, Dear Mr Sanfey, Dear participants, It is a special pleasure for us to host again the presentation of the Transition Report 2017–18 by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The Transition Report 2017–18 addresses some very important issues for transition economies, such as convergence of firm dynamics and productivity, the importance of road infrastructure to economic growth, and the new opportunities from the green economy. It is a pleasure to note that the Report presents a positive assessment of the developments in the region. After some years of anaemic growth, the economic activity in the region shows recovery and the prospects remain positive, notwithstanding the geopolitical concerns and the internal and external challenges we face. Some regional countries grew faster than other countries around the world, of similar development level and market size. The capital inflows have been relatively considerable, driving to the narrowing of the interest rates spread in the region compared with those in large economies. More importantly, it seems that inflation is gradually returning to target levels and the accelerated economic growth in the Western Balkans is supported by bank lending and some major infrastructure projects.
We value highly human and civil rights ranging from gender equality, data protection, to the condemnation of torture, including the rejection of capital punishment. The protection of these values and rights relies on the vigilance of the legal professionals here in this room and elsewhere. This is even more important vis-à-vis a reality of extreme and obsessive forms of nationalism. The EU has also increased personal choices. The ability to travel, work and live across borders has been enhanced. The European Health Insurance Card permits European citizens to obtain healthcare wherever they are. 1.5 million people, perhaps including some of you here today,  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  have completed part of their studies in another member state as part of the Erasmus programme. More than 15 million EU citizens have moved to other EU countries to work or to enjoy their retirement. This wider range of options increases people’s wellbeing. These reasons, and the other positive aspects of membership, have been drowned out in debate by concerns over migration and the large wave of refugees from troubles in the Middle East and elsewhere, the impact of the crisis, disaffection with high levels of unemployment – especially youth unemployment, and a perceived lack of accountability and legitimacy of the EU institutions. I fully recognise that Europe in its current state is not perfect. The crisis has shown that Economic and Monetary Union is incomplete, and further work is required, particularly in the areas of banking and credit markets.

In order to function democracy requires that citizens can hold decision-making accountable at the level at which these are taken. But today we can only elect and sanction at the national level, while decision making is widely done at the European level. Therefore, we have to enhance the decision-making process at the European level through appropriate democratic control measures and more direct election and sanctioning features. The solutions to these issues are not simple, and reasonable people may well disagree on their form. This forum is an ideal place to debate what laws, rules and institutions we need to put in place to strengthen the integrity of the Union. I promised earlier that I would give you something to argue about tonight! I believe the vision of a united Europe is worth striving for. To make this vision come true, we also need to understand the forces behind the populist dissatisfaction with the Union, and not dismiss them. The referendum debate in the United Kingdom has been acrimonious. In striving to deliver a united Europe, we need to be united in ourselves and build a shared EU-wide identity that delivers the necessary democratic legitimacy to the institutions. Strive mightily, but eat and drink as friends. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Andrew Bailey: Defining the objectives and goals of supervision Speech by Mr Andrew Bailey, Deputy Governor of Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive Officer of the Prudential Regulation Authority at the Bank of England, at the New York Fed conference “Defining the objectives and goals of supervision”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 18 March 2016. *  *  *  First of all, many thanks to the New York Fed for organising a conference on supervision of banks. This sounds a strange thing to say in one sense – not in another because the gratitude is genuine – but strange in the sense that surely supervision is such an important part of what we do that we shouldn’t be particularly surprised at the idea of having a conference on it. But in my experience, it is surprising how little time we spend being more reflective about supervision. I want to start with some important definitions. Frequently, and mistakenly, “supervision” and “regulation” as terms are used interchangeably. That’s wrong. Regulation is to do with the framework of rules and guidance that put the structure around the objectives that as authorities we are usually given in statute. In the UK, the PRA has a primary objective in terms of the safety and soundness of firms we authorise to do business, and safety and soundness are expressed in terms of the stability of the financial system. There is then a rulebook that tells us what safety and soundness means. That’s the framework of regulations.

In the UK, I don’t think we saw a major prudential failure of capital and liquidity which did not have a governance and management story at is root, and we had a system which was very poor at creating the right incentives for good outcomes. Here I want to put the emphasis on creating the right incentives. In my experience supervision is in part about creating and overseeing those incentives. The critical distinction here is that supervision is not just about doing things to firms, it is also about creating the conditions for firms to do this right thing in the first place. Let me give three examples of what we are doing. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  First, we have been much more active in remuneration policy and practice. I have no interest in regulating the level of pay, but we are interested to ensure that remuneration is compatible with meeting capital requirements (so it can be varied to do so) and that variable remuneration is deferred and can be withdrawn, and is thus compatible with creating the right incentives by putting that remuneration at risk if the firm fails to conform with the objectives of safety, soundness and good conduct of business. I am not in favour of limiting variable pay in the way European legislation has done through the so-called bonus cap because it reduces the opportunity to create the right incentives. We then supervise firms to ensure those incentives remain in place.
The Centre provides an invaluable forum for this to happen. Through our academic workshops, technical assistance, seminars, courses, training, and visits, we can help other Central Banks to keep their economies and financial systems on an even keel, from which everyone benefits – and also to compare notes on the challenges they face and how best to respond to them.” I know I speak for Peter’s many friends and colleagues at the Bank in saying I wish Peter was still with us to help us to deal with the many challenges we face and how best to respond to them in these unprecedented times. 17  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  17

Opening up the market to competition and authorizing a second credit bureau in 2016 was a further step towards improving the quality of services provided to credit institutions and consumers. The range of products offered has expanded to include new decision-aiding tools, such as “behavior scoring”, “portfolio monitoring” and “alerting”. In close coordination with the Ministry of Economy and Finance, Bank Al-Maghrib is currently working to rapidly develop the legal and regulatory framework of “credit bureaus” in order to expand its scope to other nonfinancial data providers, including telecom operators and water/electricity suppliers. This will help the unbanked population to have access to financing, as demonstrated by the experience of pioneering countries in this area. 2  As regards the implementation of the second pillar, the Bank has undertaken since 2016, in collaboration with the IFC, an appraisal of the existing system and has identified the characteristics of the future credit registry. In this connection, today’s seminar is a real opportunity for us to learn about the experiences of forerunners in this field, with a view to finalizing our own roadmap. Ladies and gentlemen, Six regulators, well known for their optimal use of credit registries, will present to us today how they use credit reporting data to achieve their core missions, particularly micro and macro prudential regulation, systemic risk control and monetary policy, and strengthen off-site supervision.
Ravi Menon: Reforms in banking regulation – effects and outcomes Keynote address by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Symposium on Asian Banking and Finance, San Francisco, 11 July 2016. *  *  *  Mr John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Bank  of  San  Francisco  Let me, on behalf of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, express our appreciation to John and his colleagues at the San Francisco Fed. •  It has been a fruitful collaboration on this Symposium. •  We had a good meeting in Singapore last year, and my colleagues and I are very pleased to be here in San Francisco for this year’s Symposium. There has been no lack of excitement for global financial markets over the past year: •  the US Federal Reserve Bank’s deliberations whether to raise interest rates;  •  China’s transition to a more market-based exchange rate amidst a slowdown in economic growth; and more recently  •  the decision by UK voters to leave the European Union. But even as banking stocks have taken a pounding – forgive the pun – the global banking system has generally held up well. There are no doubt fragilities in some European banks, but as yet no disorderly failure or contagion. I think this has at least something to do with the regulatory reforms put in place since the financial crisis.

If we do this right, we would have made more progress than ever before – towards a banking system that: •  is safe yet purposeful, resilient yet dynamic;  •  is robust in the face of business cycles and market volatilities, and supports economic growth and creates opportunities for individuals and enterprises. Thank you. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Based on the Implementation Group’s work to date, the Committee published a paper last August on the “high level principles for the cross-border implementation of the New Accord”. In this paper, we reiterate our view that the traditional allocation of responsibilities to home and host supervisors will continue. Cooperation will be critical for effective supervision under the New Accord, especially considering the need for an internationally active bank to receive the approval to adopt, and then validate, advanced approaches to credit and operational risk at home and in host jurisdictions. Similarly, supervisors will need to find practical ways to cooperate in the evaluations of capital adequacy under the second pillar and ongoing reviews of compliance with the minimum operational requirements of the New Accord. 4  BIS Review 52/2003  The Implementation Group and the Core Principles Working Group, which is made up of senior regulators from a variety of countries plus representatives of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund will meet for a second time in December to continue the discussions on issues related especially to the responsibilities and cooperation of home and host supervisors and issues that significant or systemically important foreign subsidiaries may pose for different jurisdictions. Based on the progress that leading banks worldwide have made in adopting more sophisticated approaches to risk management, many countries have indicated that they are planning to implement the New Accord, whether in the short or long run.

This leads to the final topic I’d like to discuss, namely the issues related with the transition to the New Accord across the world. Broad application of the New Accord around the world, transition to Basel II In drafting a replacement for the 1988 Accord, the members of the Committee sought to ensure that the capital guidelines could be applied around the world to many kinds of banks. This means that our rules must build on the best practices, yet remain relevant to conventional banks in more traditional markets. The New Accord provides a “menu” of options for measuring risk, thereby offering the degree of flexibility necessary for banks of various sizes and strategic orientiations to adopt the new framework. Now that the New Basel Accord is moving away from a “one-size-fits-all” approach to capital, supervisors in every jurisdictions have the opportunity to evaluate what would be most appropriate for banks that are not large, complex, or internationally active. At the same time, we could say that Basel has moved away from a “one-schedule-fits-all” approach to implementing the new rules worldwide. Or, if you prefer, the Committee is saying to each country, “pick flowers when flowers bloom”. This suggestion is particularly crucial for supervisors who have adopted the 1988 Accord only recently. Some supervisors believe that their banks may still be strengthening their credit risk management functions and consequently would not benefit substantially from the New Accord at the moment.
Starting with the analysis under the first pillar of our monetary policy strategy, the three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 stood at 8.0% in the period from November 2001 to January 2002, compared with 7.8% in the period from October to December 2001. The high level of the annual growth rates of M3 is very much related to portfolio shifts to liquid positions, most of which occurred in the autumn of 2001 in an economic and financial environment characterised by high uncertainty. While many investors still seemed to be "parking" some of their assets in M3 in early 2002, some moderation in the short-term dynamics of M3 could be observed around the turn of the year. The Governing Council continues to hold the view that the information from the first pillar thus far does not indicate risks to price stability, as the portfolio reallocations which drove M3 growth in 2001 should remain temporary. In addition, the slowdown in the rate of growth of loans to the private sector has been continuing over the past few months. However, we will need to analyse monetary developments closely in the coming months. As regards the second pillar, there are further signs that the trough in economic activity may have been reached at the end of last year. Coincident and forward-looking indicators increasingly point to improvements in economic conditions. A similar picture is reflected in financial market expectations, especially those embedded in bond yields.

The Albanian economy is estimated to have grown below its potential in 2012. Recent economic and monetary data confirm, overall, our earlier assessment for the presence of a negative output gap. On the demand side, economic growth was driven mainly by net exports growth, whereas domestic demand is estimated to have provided low contribution. Data on trade in goods during the fourth quarter show that exports increased 12% and imports fell 9.5%, year on year. Subsequently, the nominal trade deficit narrowed 20.1%, in annual terms, boosting aggregate demand in this quarter. On its side, domestic demand remains weak, due to consumers and businesses hesitation to consume and invest. Lending standards continue to be tight as banks are more prudent about lending. Budget expenditure fell about 0.3%, year on year, owing mainly to contracting capital expenditure. Collected revenue was also downward, eventually reducing the budget deficit by 1.2% compared to 2011. However, the fiscal policy was stimulating during the fourth quarter, materialising in 35% expansion of the budget deficit for this period. Though at low rates, public expenditure is expected to have positive contribution to economic activity in 2013. The monetary policy eased further in January, through the key interest rate cut to the record low of 3.75%. The easing was transmitted into the interbank market interest rates during February, while it is expected to be transmitted into other segments of the financial market. Low government demand for borrowing has exercised downward pressures on government securities yield.