samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Measures of central tendency derived from density forecasts are strongly correlated with point forecasts, and they have very similar average values; however, for roughly half of the responses, the point forecast falls in either the top or bottom quartile of the individual’s forecast density, away from the center. Thus, interpersonal comparisons of point forecasts reflect not just differences in beliefs but also differences in what distribution statistic is being reported as point forecast by different survey participants. Density forecasts therefore allow for a more accurate measurement of disagreement among forecasters by using a common measure of central tendency (for example, the mean or the median of individuals’ subjective probability distribution). Findings on monthly expectations The Survey of Consumer Expectations provides a broad range of measures that are used routinely in our continuous assessment of the economy. We publish the monthly findings of our survey on the second Monday of each month on the New York Fed’s website. The Survey page is organized into three sections: inflation, labor market, and household finance. As shown in Chart 1, inflation expectations have been quite stable over the past twelve months, at both the one-year and the three-year ahead horizons. Our preferred measure is based on the median of the individual respondents’ density means, but we also report the median point forecast as well as the interquartile range of the density means across respondents to highlight the dispersion of expectations across consumers. I will return to this aspect later.

By doing so, we aim to collect a more accurate and complete representation of individuals’ subjective expectations, and the degree of uncertainty that they attach to their forecasts. Our method for eliciting density forecasts builds on a large body of empirical work, led by economist Charles Manski, which involves the use of probabilistic survey question formats to measure a respondent’s beliefs about an uncertain future event. Our specific question format was further tested during the experimental pilot phase of the project. Our density forecast question asks respondents to assign probabilities to pre-determined intervals or bins for future outcomes. For example, as shown on Slide 2, for year-ahead inflation, we ask for the “percent chance” that inflation will be between 0 percent and 2 percent, 2 percent and 4 percent, 4 percent and 8 percent, etc., with similar bins used for deflation. In a similar fashion, we solicit respondents’ density forecasts for year-ahead earnings growth, house price change expectations, and three-year ahead inflation. For each individual respondent, the resulting density forecast enables us to construct individual measures of central tendency (such as the density mean or median) and uncertainty (such as the density interquartile range). To compute these, we use each individual’s responses to the probabilistic questions to parametrically estimate the underlying forecast density function as proposed by Engelberg, Manski, and Williams in a 2009 Journal of Business and Economic Statistics article.
I also emphasize that SAMA will follow up this matter and take legal actions against insurers that are proven to be negligent. I am sure that you all are aware of the significance of handling such claims promptly and efficiently since this will enhance insurance companies’ reputation and attractiveness to those averse to taking risks. Dear Audience, During the past few years, the insurance sector has not only achieved good results in terms of services provided, diversity of products, and establishing trust with beneficiaries, but also in terms of compliance with laws, regulations, and instructions issued. However, there is a lot more that remains to be done to modernize the insurance industry to enhance its soundness, capabilities and performance to make it comparable to regional and global insurance industries. Such a situation calls for considerable attention to professionalism in application of technical aspects of pricing policies, management of claims, provision of technological infrastructure consistent with the size and nature of the work, investment policy, compliance with the financial solvency standards, and allocations of necessary technical provisions to ensure health and soundness of the companies’ financial positions. It is imperative that the insurance industry remains competitive by developing and providing insurance products and services to the satisfaction of customers at all times. Dear Audience, We expect the insurance industry to continue to improve its performance and achieve balanced growth in accordance with corporate objectives and available resources.

51, No. 4, s. 657-665. Schadler, S., Drummond, P.F.N., Kuijs, L., Murgasova, Z., Elkan van, R. 2005. “Adopting the euro in Central Europe: Challenges of the Next Step in European Integration”, Occasional Paper No. 234, International Monetary Fund, Washington. Wicksell, K. 1898. “Interest and Prices”, tłum. R.F.Kahn, MacMillan, New York, 1936. Woodford, M. 2003. “Interest and Prices”, Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford. 4  BIS Review 6/2007
Symposium contribution  Monetary policy under new constraints: challenges for the Swiss National Bank Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy Contribution to the panel ‘The Outlook for Policy Post-Pandemic’ Thomas J. Jordan Chairman of the Governing Board ∗ Swiss National Bank Jackson Hole, 27 August 2022 © Swiss National Bank  Page 1/16  This year’s Jackson Hole symposium seeks to reassess the constraints on the economy following the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s attack on Ukraine, with this panel focusing on the monetary policy outlook in particular. The pandemic and the war in Ukraine have fundamentally changed the constraints on conducting monetary policy. In the past, central banks have been constrained by the effective lower bound on interest rates, but at present it is the strong rise in inflation that poses the major challenge. Over the longer term, structural developments such as the decarbonisation of the economy, the high levels of sovereign debt worldwide and potential deglobalisation could shape the economic constraints and lead to heightened inflationary pressure. I begin by looking back at the challenges central banks, and in particular the Swiss National Bank, have had to contend with since the global financial crisis. I will go on to highlight the developments since the pandemic and the outbreak of the war.

The companies apparently trusted that the SNB would be able to prevent a sustained decline in the level of prices through its decisive use of unconventional measures. The SNB was able to preserve its monetary policy credibility, even in this difficult environment. The second point relates to the adjustment processes following the sudden upward surges in the value of the Swiss franc. The negative or very low inflation in Switzerland was in fact part of these adjustment processes, since it contributed to reducing the overvaluation of the Swiss franc over time. Thus, the real exchange rate appreciated considerably less than the nominal exchange rate (cf. Chart 3). This helped to cushion the impact of the nominal appreciation on  Page 3/16  the real economy. The economy’s ability to adapt to an environment with low – and in some instances negative – inflation has been better than many expected. The Swiss economy has fared relatively well over the past 15 years. The labour market has remained robust overall, and GDP growth has been good by international comparison (cf. Chart 4). Like most other countries, Switzerland was unable to avoid significant declines in GDP amid the global financial crisis and during the pandemic, but each time our economy quickly returned to a growth trajectory. The SNB was able to ensure price stability in the phase marked by deflationary risks, and thus contributed to a comparatively robust development of the economy.
9  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/prudential-regulation/publication/2020/pra-statement-on-prioritisation-covid19 9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  9  Appendix  Chart 1: Corporate spreads and the matching adjustment  Source: BOE calculations using Bank of America Merrill Lynch corporate spreads data, EIOPA technical information  Chart 2: Symmetric Adjustment of the Equity Capital Charge  Source: EIOPA “Symmetric adjustment of the equity capital charge April 2020”. Retrieved from https://www.eiopa.europa.eu/tools-anddata/symmetric-adjustment-equity-capital-charge_en  10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  10  Chart 3: UK volatility adjustment  Source: BOE calculations using Bank of America Merrill Lynch corporate spreads data, EIOPA technical information  11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  11

Spanish resolution regulations are already based on this bail-in model. That said, the scope of the bail-in under Law 9/2012 is somewhat more limited than in the Directive, which requires that resolution costs be borne not only by shareholders and the holders of hybrid and subordinated instruments (as envisaged under Law 9/2012), but also by the institution’s creditors (with some exceptions, e.g. secured creditors or depositors for the amount guaranteed by the Deposit Guarantee Fund). That will necessitate the updating of Spanish resolution rules to broaden the set of creditors who must bear the cost of resolution. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Closely connected with the idea of the bail-in is a new term called GLAC (gone concern loss absorption capacity), which consists of establishing a loss-absorption requirement once resolution has been reached. Current debate on GLAC turns on what attributes financial instruments must have so they may be considered as possessing such loss absorption capacity. It is also being discussed what the appropriate amount for GLAC should be for banks to be able to continue performing their critical functions. Final considerations: simplification for the sake of effective regulation To conclude, this entire programme of reforms will be of little use if the various agents involved cannot implement it effectively. Implementation should involve two stages. Firstly, authorities should ensure that international agreements are properly transposed to their respective national frameworks. Secondly, for effective regulatory implementation to take place, there must be a pass-through from the theoretical and legal plane to everyday reality.
In my Bank’s and the Basle Supervisors’ work with the industry to meet the Year 2000 challenge, a number of issues have arisen that are worth calling to your attention. Probably the most significant issue is the relationship that banks have with third-party vendors and service providers. Not infrequently, we have found that banks have assumed either that vendors will make their products and services Year 2000-compliant, or have sought only general assurances from the vendors, which have been accepted at face value. Either approach puts a bank at significant risk. In addition, we uncovered instances when products represented by vendors as compliant simply were not. More significantly, we found that even if a vendor has made appropriate modifications and tested a product, there can be no guarantee that it will work properly in a bank’s unique operating environment or in concert with related applications. It is now quite clear that every product must be tested and certified as compliant by the user, and testing must be repeated upon the release of new compliant applications, environmental software, and hardware. Remote operations and foreign activities pose special challenges for Year 2000 programs. Efforts to develop or use off-the-shelf applications or to put in place a general plan of action can fail to take into account activities that are unique to a particular business or location. Making certain that inventories are complete for complex organizational structures and geographically dispersed banks is proving to be a very difficult task.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has also faced a number of challenges since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007. We have repeatedly been forced to counteract the adverse effects of enormous shocks to the Swiss economy, in line with our mandate to ensure price stability, while taking due account of economic developments in Switzerland. At the current juncture, the economic uncertainty in the euro area, in particular, is of great concern to Switzerland and the SNB. While we cannot influence the developments in the euro area, we can act in a resolute and timely manner to dampen the negative implications for our country. The most visible measure we have taken is undoubtedly the introduction, almost exactly one year ago, of the minimum exchange rate. In the current situation, a further appreciation of the Swiss franc would constitute a very substantial threat to the Swiss economy, and would carry with it the risk of deflationary developments. With this in mind, we will continue to enforce the minimum exchange rate with the utmost determination, in line with our mandate. Today, however, I do not want to talk primarily about monetary policy, but about the Swiss financial industry. Allow me to start by explaining why the financial industry, in general, and a healthy and stable banking sector, in particular, are of vital interest to the SNB. There are two main reasons. First, the banking system fulfils a key financial intermediary role in the economy.
Central Banks have found that venturing into the digital transformation with an increasing use of big data, a process that was accelerated because of the sanitary crisis, helps ease somewhat these trade-offs. Many central banks have broadened the analysis using less traditional sources derived from the so-called "open" data available on the Internet. They started to apply big data techniques, such as web scraping, machine learning or text analysis, for collecting and transforming data on prices, job vacancies or retail sales, among others. As a result, it became possible to release new indicators with higher frequency and timeliness. This has contributed to a better understanding of economic phenomena, providing up to date empirical support to the implementation of monetary policy and financial stability mandates. 1  New sources of information In our case, at the Central Bank of Chile we have embarked in several efforts to expand and improve the data available. For the first time, starting in June, we released regional gross domestic product and household consumption on a quarterly basis, with a lag of a few months. This advance enhances data robustness and provides valuable information for economic analysis and public policy decisions by increasing the frequency and opportunity with which we can measure regional economic conditions, which until recently was available only annually.

To ease and empower the user in manipulating and utilizing these new data we launched a new visualization tool developed in Power-BI. The lesson learned is also that to keep up with the changes and react promptly, we must continue encouraging the digital transformation of our organizations, incorporating advanced analytical techniques, and providing more timely and granular information that considers heterogeneity to complement conventional statistics. As the access to new large-volume databases and the use of granular data almost always poses the challenge of confidentiality, the Central Bank of Chile has sought to implement best practices and safeguards to exploit such information. With this objective, we established a Data Governance Agenda, led by a Strategic Committee that reports directly to the Board and whose executive management is located in the Statistics Division. Likewise, we are working on our Big Data Strategic Project, which contemplates a centralized data repository that all user areas can access. 2  Climate and distributional challenges Central banks actively participate in different initiatives to respond to the demands derived from climate change. In April 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stressed the critical role of climate data in effectively aligning the financial sector with science-based decarbonization and adaptation goals.
In particular, according to the flash estimate,2 inflation was slightly lower than expected and stood at 8.5% in January, down from 10.1% in November. Furthermore, the strong fall in gas prices, the easing of global supply chain disruptions, the appreciation of the euro and tighter financing conditions (the latter reflecting, inter alia, our policy tightening) also pointed to inflation falling more strongly in the coming months than envisaged in December. At the same time, the fact that core inflation (5.2% in January, according to the flash estimate) has held at record high levels was a powerful reminder that price pressures remain strong, as past energy price rises continue to spread throughout the economy. All in all, this information led us to assess the risks to the inflation outlook as being more balanced, especially in the near term. As regards financial market-based indicators, in the run-up to our February meeting the riskfree forward curve continued to point to expectations of further interest rate increases in our subsequent meetings, including 50 bp hikes in both February and March, with a terminal market rate of around 3.47% (0.6 pp higher than before our December meeting). This was corroborated by analysts’ expectations, as reflected in surveys conducted shortly before the meeting.

16 All in all, it is therefore crucial that we monitor how all these elements may affect monetary policy transmission in the next quarters. Conclusion  In sum, recent data on euro area inflation and some of its key determinants are somewhat encouraging, but the overall situation still requires caution. The evidence so far is very preliminary and there are several areas that require careful monitoring: the residual pass 15  Huennekes, F., and P. Kö hler-Ulbrich (2023). “What information does the euro area bank lending survey pro vide on future lo an develo pments?”, ECB Eco no mic Bulletin, Issue 8/2022, Box 7. 16  ESRB repo rt "Vulnerabilities in the residential real estate secto rs o f th e EEA co untries”. 8  through of past inflationary shocks and the symmetry of the pass-through of recent energy price declines to core inflation; labour market and wage developments; the possible effects of the Chinese reopening; the resilience of the euro area economy and the transmission of ECB monetary policy decisions. All these will have to be assessed as part of the full projections exercise under way in the run-up to our March meeting. 9
Andrew Bailey: The capital adequacy of banks – today’s issues and what we have learned from the past Speech by Mr Andrew Bailey, Deputy Governor of Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive Officer of the Prudential Regulation Authority at the Bank of England, at Bloomberg, London, 10 July 2014. *  *  *  I would like to thank David Curry, Hywel Dawes, Simon Dixon, Marc Farag, John Jackson, Duncan Mackinnon, Sasha Mills, Jitendra Patil, Rhys Phillips, David Rule and Vicky Saporta for their help in preparing this speech. The views expressed are my own and not necessarily those of any other members of the Bank of England. Good morning and thank you for giving me this opportunity to speak on the subject of bank capital adequacy. I am going to focus on the design of the capital adequacy regime. I am going to draw out the failings of the old regime and why those failings were so critical, comment on the major progress made over recent years, and use all of this to draw out design questions that remain to be settled. In doing so, I will examine a set of key objectives of the regime: first, that it creates good incentives for the behaviour of regulated firms; second, that it is appropriately forward-looking – at the risks in the future; and third, that it encourages and requires appropriate transparency which fosters market discipline.

While some initiatives during the pandemic demonstrated willingness for increased global cooperation and solidarity in crisis times (for instance the IMF's emergency financing, debt relief initiatives, and SDR allocation), the more recent trade and investment fragmentation trends may put in jeopardy global policy coordination efforts. And while business strategies such as near-shoring and friend-shoring may be justified by security motives, government inward-oriented policies can be costly, distortionary and of limited efficiency. As an alternative, we should think of more ways to improve international cooperation, not impede it. Climate change mitigation and adaptation or Sustainable Development Goals are examples of global public goods where governments can achieve important economic and social goals through global cooperation, and can easily fail without it. When talking about lessons from recent past, let me, for a moment, go further back in history, and use the opportunity of being here in Dubrovnik, to draw some parallels with the medieval Republic of Ragusa (the old name of the city-state of Dubrovnik). The history of old Ragusa was also not immune to external shocks, such as wars, natural disasters (earthquakes), trade interruptions and epidemics. In fact, in the medieval times, the dangers were far more serious than those we are facing today. In addition to conflicts, there was a constant threat of food shortages and diseases. So, navigating in choppy waters was exactly what the policymakers of Ragusa were doing so successfully for centuries – both literally and metaphorically.
In everything that we do, we need to consider all the information, and exercise data dependence and flexibility, as we navigate the course ahead. 1 See John C. Williams, Interest Rates and the ‘New Normal’, Remarks to the Community Banking in the 21st  Century Research and Policy Conference, St. Louis, Missouri (October 5, 2017), and Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach, and John C. Williams, Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants, 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Journal of International Economics, Volume 108, Supplement 1, pp. S59–S75 (May 2017). 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches

The digital economy has delivered huge gains in leisure time, for example, by simplifying certain administrative tasks, and led to the development of free services, without any of these benefits appearing in conventional measures of output. It has also prompted the rise of the informal economy (C to C services), which is particularly tricky to recognise in the accounts. Our conference today will provide an opportunity to look specifically at the case of France, thanks to a presentation by INSEE. 1. Are we witnessing a permanent slowdown in the contribution of technical progress to productivity growth? Assuming that there has been a slowdown in productivity, the second hypothesis is that it stems from a slowdown in innovation and in its contribution to productivity. The great wave of productivity growth during Les Trente Glorieuses in France was fuelled by advances in a large number of domains: technical progress with electricity, the combustion engine, chemicals and telecommunications, but also the emergence of new methods of labour organisation and new 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  management practices. Today, what potential contribution can information and communication technologies (ICTs) make to growth? The first ICT wave has been limited in duration and in scale, and has only been felt to a small extent in many countries, including France. This has prompted some economists, such as Robert Gordon, to doubt that technology can make a significant contribution in the future.