samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
2  The General Council of the Riksbank's comments 1997-02-06  BIS Review 9/2002  3  With regard to the labour market, it should be clear that the functioning of the labour market and the high level of unemployment no longer comprise as strong a restriction as they did in the mid-1990s. Unemployment in Sweden has fallen. Several factors have played a role in the decline. One of these is probably the fact that the wage formation system has been changed in a way that contributes to better concordance between productivity and wage growth. Nevertheless, there are clear signs that the labour market still comprises a problem area. A clear majority of the EU member states has now joined the monetary union, which was not evident when the Calmfors Commission made its assessment. The political cost of remaining outside of EMU has thus become greater, and public opinion has become more positive towards membership. I personally think that there are also new arguments that should be considered with regard to the costs of remaining outside the union. For instance, the economists Andrew Rose and Torsten Persson have made in-depth analyses of the effects on trade of a monetary union. There could be reason to believe that the positive effects are slightly greater than was assumed in connection with the Calmfors Commission's report.

But we are not there yet. How shall we keep our balance in the future? In a financial crisis most of what is not built on stable foundations and does not have a robust structure is washed away. But when the situation has calmed, we have the chance to build up something new that will work better than that which failed the trials. We have this chance now. We must take part in the change work Keeping our balance once we have landed on our feet will require reforms with regard to legislation and supervision. Difficult and important challenges lie ahead of those of us who work with these issues – the central banks, the financial supervisory authorities and the legislators. Here Sweden must take on the challenge and play an active role in the international discussion. And it is necessary to act quickly. The reform work has already begun. Within the EU a new supervisory structure is being built up with regard to banks, insurance, securities and systemic risk. The new body, the European Systemic Risk Board, ESRB, will play an important role in this. Change is required in a number of different areas. The most recent crisis has demonstrated how a liquid market can very quickly dry up and become illiquid under certain conditions. Tougher rules are required regarding liquidity and the buffer that banks and credit institutions need to be able to withstand shocks. Further consideration is required here before we find a good solution.
Ladies and gentlemen, let me turn to the general economy because a central bank or commercial banks alone cannot make the country good very quickly. It is quite obvious that world grain prices are on the way down. Between the years 1800-1900 when the West was being opened in the United States, grain prices fell over 30% over a span of a century. With genetic engineering, something of a similar nature might happen over the next 20 or 50 years. We have to plan our still agricultural-dominated population for this eventuality. It does not make sense to base strategy on an expansion of production in a falling market. It makes much more sense to base strategy on cost reduction and to add value to the final agricultural products. A ton of grain may be worth 10,000 baht, but a ton of biscuits is worth 100,000 baht. But to make biscuits, you need a brand and you need flavours, things which take a long time to develop and endow to the economy. As to agricultural finance, the most that is available at the moment is crop finance. But you can’t make the weather to order. The bad year will kill you, and a mechanism must be developed to finance the disaster of the bad years from the abundance of the good years rather than leaving it to pot luck or to the effort of individual farmers as at present.

Eva Srejber: Is there reason for confidence in the future of the economy? Speech by Ms Eva Srejber, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the KEPA day1, Stockholm, 21 October 2004. *  *  *  Thank you for the invitation to take part in the KEPA day and share my thoughts regarding confidence in the future of the economy. I will speak about economic growth and internationalisation, draw a parallel between current events and historical events and then look ahead to the challenges and opportunities that an increasingly interlaced world economy will bring. Since the Second World War, international growth has been higher than during previous centuries, while it has spread to a larger number of countries - never before have so many had it so good. During the industrial revolution in the 19th century, the growth rate in leading countries like Britain amounted to an average of 1.5 per cent a year. Since the middle of the 20th century, many countries have managed to achieve growth rates of between 5 and 8 per cent a year. These unparalleled successes of course have several explanations, some of the most important being extensive liberalisation of trade and capital flows, major technological advances and changes in economic policy. Assuming that the trend towards increased global integration continues, there is every reason to expect continuing substantial increases in economic wealth.
We should understand each other, and adopt and adapt what could usefully travel across borders, but not proselytise. Communications, and forecasts If, adapting Mike Woodford, monetary policy is nearly all about expectations, then communication matters hugely in real-world policy making (a world in which rational expectations don’t hold and so one in which we cannot passively rely on households and firms just getting it right by observing our actions). I agree entirely with Blinder that what kinds of communication are feasible and effective will vary according to the type of decision-taking structure a central bank employs. In the Bank of England’s case, given one member/one vote, the challenge is how to achieve a sensible balance of centripetal and centrifugal forces. How this plays out varies across the different dimensions of monetary policy: the objective, ‘model’ of the economy, reaction function, month-by-month decisions, and forecasts, and so on. As already noted, the objective is laid down by the Chancellor of the Exchequer. As well as helping to fill the democratic deficit, this coheres with a one person/one vote committee. The structure would not work well if different members were free to form our own views on the objective. Amongst other things, that would mean that as the composition of the MPC changed, the objective could change. This also underpins the utility of the UK MPC’s objective unequivocally giving primacy to inflation; in the jargon, the objective is lexicographic, with ‘avoiding unnecessary volatility in output and employment’ occupying a subsidiary role.

In the interests of effective policy, the Committee as a whole therefore has an interest in setting up some centripetal influences, without making them a binding constraint on individual members. Thus, the publications on the transmission mechanism and on the economic outlook provide a broad, common platform for readers to use when making sense of our individual pronouncements. My hunch is that this gives us greater scope for articulating our individual views without creating misleading impressions. For example, a paper I delivered last year on Money and Credit 4 went into more detail on those parts of the transmission mechanism than any collective statement, or than my colleagues might wish to go. I have found that helpful in recent months, as a few comments on the current conjuncture might illustrate. My take at our recent July meeting was, broadly, that since the May Inflation Report, the near-term outlook for inflation had deteriorated, underlining the risk that the rise in commodity prices will feed through to wage and price setting. The outlook for demand and output had also deteriorated, which in degree should help to contain those upside risks to inflation. Going forward, a key judgment will be whether the prospective slowdown will be sufficient to bring inflation back to target with the current level of Bank Rate, taking into account the tightening in some broader measures of monetary conditions. The final point is what I want to highlight in the context of my remarks today.
Finally, may I represent the Treasury Markets Forum to thank the Chinese University of Hong Kong and the University of Science and Technology in developing the certificate programmes on dealing, settlement and fixed income securities. I would also like to congratulate ACI - The Financial Markets Association of Hong Kong in successfully introducing the new membership regime and expanding the membership. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 58/2004

For example, it has been argued that “systemic” financial institutions should be more closely supervised and be subject to a more stringent set of regulations. How exactly to define systemic institutions, and who should deem an institution systemic is far from clear. Closely related reforms are those aimed at reducing interdependence and, therefore, the systemic nature of institutions. The push towards central counterparties, in particular for derivatives, falls in this category. The second category of reforms encompasses those directly related to the specifics of the subprime crisis. I would like to offer some comments on these issues. In particular, I would like to comment on a) accounting methods; b) liquidity; and c) rating agencies. Accounting methods and valuation At the onset of the financial turbulences, there were strong concerns on how precise was the information reported by banks, how large were the losses, and who was bearing these losses. This uncertainty was a critical factor in the shutdown of key financial markets. The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) have been working and promoting recommendations on accounting and disclosure standards for off-balance-sheet investment vehicles, and fair value methods, among others. However, these “information” requirements by themselves are not enough, and other measures could be necessary, such as forcing originators and other agents to hold part of the risk of the assets created. Liquidity The current financial turbulence has highlighted that for the banking sector liquidity considerations are as relevant as solvency issues.
Having said that, I would like to add that central banks have managed quite well to quickly adapt to the unprecedented circumstances in markets. Still, deeper thought has to be dedicated to these issues when time eventually allows. As a final remark on preparedness I would like to stress the importance of practice. No matter how sophisticated crisis management arrangements are, they have to be deployed properly by the authorities using them. However, since financial crises thankfully are pretty rare events, people working in these authorities probably are not going to be particularly used to doing that. But with appropriate practice, crisis management skills can be substantially improved. In my own organisation we regularly perform crisis exercises, both on our own and in cooperation with other relevant authorities and countries. These exercises have not only helped to improve the staffs’ skills significantly, they have also provided important lessons on how different crisis management practices could be improved. One such lesson has been that a higher degree of international coordination and harmonisation is needed, a lesson that has certainly been confirmed by the current crisis. International co-operation and harmonisation is needed The need for greater cross-border cooperation pretty much applies to all of the issues I have touched upon so far, both regarding the prevention and the management of financial crises. Taking Europe as an example, it has become quite obvious in the last year that the diverging national structures of frameworks for regulation, supervision and crisis management have complicated the management of the current crisis.

Globally interconnected markets have resulted in a situation in which financial institutions everywhere have been hit, even if not exposed to the institutions or assets at the core of the crisis. My home country Sweden is a good example of this. What we have witnessed in recent months, since the default of Lehman Brothers, is the acute phase of a global financial crisis. To respond, authorities have taken action to prevent a systemic break down of the financial system. Both the US and the EU have delivered financial support plans committing governments and central banks to providing the necessary support to the financial industry. BIS Review 134/2008  1  These plans are now being implemented and we cannot yet be certain of their success. However, in my view, the support plans contain the necessary measures to solve the most critical issue right now, namely to restore market confidence by providing guarantees to creditors that their money will be repaid. Therefore, the prospects for restoring financial stability and enhancing the availability of credit for firms and households should be good. That the support plans also provide measures for government capital injections and takeovers is obviously good, but for the purpose of getting markets to function properly ownership issues really are of secondary importance. After all, what creditors are looking for is to get their money back. To them it should not really matter from where or from whom that money comes.
I think it is highly probable that the following situations will emerge: (1)  The more a country is indebted, the more deleveraging it has to undergo. It is inevitable that economic growth and employment will be weak and the living standards in some places where the problem is more serious may even deteriorate. (2)  Some advanced and many emerging economies do not need to bear the pain of deleveraging due to their low level of debt. However, as other advanced economies have to undergo deleveraging, it will not be possible to go back to the “good old days” with everybody enjoying a prosperous economic development. Countries around the world will have to strive to enhance their productivity and competitiveness so as to capture a bigger share in the international trade arena where growth has slowed down. More importantly, major emerging economies, such as China, India, Brazil and Russia, would have to try their best to expand domestic demand and carry out reforms to improve productivity, so as to reduce their reliance on exports to the advanced economies and to achieve slower, yet more balanced and sustainable economic growth. Another question we would like to ask is: what will the global asset market be heading? I wish I have a crystal ball. All I can do is to make some assumptions and analyse different possibilities. (1)  The first possibility builds on the assumption that the process of global deleveraging is not affected by quantitative easing.

Other countries of the European Union, including the UK and France, are faring not much better, though the markets have been more accommodative of their plight so far. The whole Europe is in fact mired in the “debt abyss”. For all the hard efforts by the European Central Bank (ECB) to minimise the risk of a total euro collapse, President of the ECB, Mr Mario Draghi, once said that these were merely attempts to buy time, so that the euro zone countries could implement fiscal and structural reforms. Hopefully the markets would be convinced that these reforms would help those countries reduce government debt and regain competitiveness. As regards fiscal reforms, the EU agreed on and signed the Fiscal Compact in March 2012. If implemented, the European countries concerned will have to pursue rigorous deficit reduction plans and lower their total sovereign debt to GDP ratio to 60% or below within years. Take Italy as an example. It will have to keep on reducing its government debt by an amount equal to 3% of GDP annually for the next twenty years so as to reduce its current debt-to-GDP ratio of 120% to the target of 60%. This shows how formidable and painful it will be for the European countries to re-establish fiscal discipline. The short to medium term economic outlook for Europe is hardly optimistic. What I would like to point out here is that implementation of the Fiscal Compact will lead to significant deleveraging by the various European governments.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Launch of the consumer education programme Opening remarks by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the launch of the consumer education programme at the Central Bank of Malaysia, 30 January 2003. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, The consumer education programme being launched today is a further development that represents an important step forward in the modernisation of our financial system. We have already seen the significant progress that has been achieved by the banking sector in the restructuring and reform process, in the capacity enhancement of the banking institutions and in the overall development of our financial infrastructure. The ultimate objective of this progress is to contribute towards enhancing the growth and development prospects of our nation. The strengthening of the banking sector needs to be translated into enhanced effectiveness and efficiency of the banking institutions in meeting the changing requirements of our economy. How consumers can expect to benefit from this progress will depend on how well informed they are on matters relating to financial services being provided. The consumer education programme being launched today represents an important element in the overall strategy of enhancing the consumer protection infrastructure. Consumer education and awareness is essential in an environment that is becoming increasingly more complex and sophisticated.

The aim of the setting-up of a one-stop consumer education centre is to address information gaps that may exist. The programme also aims to broaden the consumers' horizon by enhancing their knowledge on the new and more innovative ways of conducting banking. Internet banking, for example, is a fast and convenient mode of conducting banking transactions that has yet to gain widespread acceptance amongst banking consumers. With greater access to information on this, consumers can be better informed on the advantages of this form of banking. Any fears or apprehension on this mode of banking may be removed thus allowing for greater convenience derived from banking via desktops in the comfort of the home or office. BIS Review 4/2003  1  Increased access by the public to information will also increase the level of awareness not only of the rights of consumers but also on the responsibilities of both the consumers and financial institutions with regard to the financial products and services being offered. Consumers should be aware of their rights and how best to seek redress if there is dissatisfaction with the products or services purchased. Through active consumerism, banking products and services will need to keep up with the expectations of consumers and this will inherently contribute towards improved banking products and services.
Jean-Claude Trichet: Leadership in Europe - euro, enlargement, economic reform Speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, Governor of the Bank of France, at the 7th annual conference of the German-British Forum, London, 17 October 2002. *  *  *  Mr. Chairman, Ladies and gentlemen, dear German and British friends, it is a great pleasure and an th honour to be with you today, on the occasion of the 7 annual Conference of the German-British Forum. The title of this conference: “Leadership in Europe : Euro, Enlargement, Economic reform” is especially relevant this year, as 2002 will stay as a decisive milestone in the process of European integration. The beginning of this year saw the completion of the changeover to the single European currency, the last stage of a now more-than-twenty-year process of monetary integration. And we are now at the eve of another historic stage for the European Union: the forthcoming enlargement to Central, Southern and Eastern Europe countries. From a central banker’s perspective, these two major events confirm, more than ever, the attractiveness of the European endeavour, but also the necessity of implementing strong, audacious economic reforms in Europe. Before addressing in greater detail these two main challenges that the EU and the euro area will have to cope with in the next years, economic reforms and EU enlargement, I would like, first, to recall in a few words the successful launch of the euro banknotes and coins in January 2002.

In this regard, the Eurosystem welcomed the ambitious Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP) launched by the European Council in Lisbon in 2000. This plan is aimed at harmonising and improving the conditions under which issuers, investors and intermediaries conduct their activities in the European Union. The European Council set a tight timetable so that this plan can be implemented by 2005, and even sooner, by 2003, as regards the measures relating to the securities markets. At present, 30 out the 42 FSAP objectives have already been brought to a successful conclusion, allowing significant breakthroughs in various crucial areas. All these objectives involve far-reaching reforms, such as, for instance, introducing a single passport for issuers, with the planned Prospectus Directive, setting up an adequate framework for the oversight of the activities of financial conglomerates or harmonising rules concerning the use of collateral in financial transactions, especially in a cross-border context. The Eurosystem also supports the strategic conclusions of the Committee chaired by A. Lamfalussy on the integration of the European securities markets, ratified by the European Council meeting in Stockholm in 2001 and approved by the European Parliament in early 2002. We are convinced that the implementation of these broad guidelines and the new cooperation structures at the European level will help make it possible to take full advantage of the introduction of the euro.