samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Recently, signs of weakness have been observed in the US, but a favourable international environment in 2007 can be expected in view of the unchanged vitality of the Asian economy and the recovery of growth in Europe. In addition to the favourable impetus from the global economy, our exports also benefited from special conditions on the foreign exchange market. The introduction of the euro resulted in a stabilisation of the European monetary scene, and the Swiss franc was sheltered from the speculative disruptions that we have experienced in the past. Nowadays our currency is far less volatile that in the 1990s, and this is certainly beneficial for foreign trade. Moreover, although the dollar has lost ground over recent years, the euro has regained a level comparable to that of 1999. Since Swiss inflation was distinctly lower than that of our main trading partners, the real exchange rate index weighted by our exports to 24 countries has declined by almost 10% over the five last years. The competitive position of our exporters has improved accordingly. Nevertheless, it would be precipitate to think that the Swiss franc was likely to continue weakening. In many respects, the current situation is paradoxical in view of the fact that currencies from countries where inflation is lowest – the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen – have lost ground to currencies from countries with a less favourable price outlook.

Caleb M Fundanga: Repatriation of bank notes between Zambia and Mozambique Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the signing ceremony of the Agreement on Repatriation of Bank Notes between the Bank of Mozambique and the Bank of Zambia, Lusaka, 4 February 2009. *  *  *  • Your Excellency, the High Commissioner; • Governor Ernesto Gouveia Gove, Governor of the Bank of Mozambique; • Members of the Mozambican delegation; • Bank of Zambia staff present; • Distinguished Invited Guests; • Ladies and gentlemen: May I begin by extending a warm welcome to Governor Gove and members of the Mozambique delegation to Zambia in general and to this signing ceremony of the Agreement on the Repatriation of Bank Notes between the Bank of Mozambique and the Bank of Zambia, in particular. Governor, the existence of an extensive border between Mozambique and Zambia has resulted in significant cross-border trade as evidenced by the movement of people, goods and currencies across the border thereby strengthening our shared identity and background as Africans. I must however, hasten to mention that, the cross border trade has hitherto been hindered by the need for traders from both sides of the border to convert funds into United States Dollars and then convert funds back into the other currency when purchasing goods or services. By so doing, cross-border traders incur foreign exchange losses as well as other conversion costs in the process.
Thus caution, steadfastness and self-control are called for in all areas of the economy – in other words, the maxim that “the doors of pleasure should not be thrown wide open” still applies. As far as the Central Bank is concerned, ensuring low inflation is its most important function today and in the future. And that picture is growing brighter, although care still needs to be exercised. 4  BIS Review 42/2007

While most countries have leveraged on the existing legal or regulatory frameworks developed for consumer protection in general, there is a need to recognise the limitations of such general frameworks in addressing consumer protection in the context of promoting a more inclusive financial system. A consumer protection regime that relies on full disclosures may mean very little to consumers that have neither the capacity to understand the disclosures, nor the ability to exercise the appropriate choice between the products being offered. Existing consumer protection frameworks may need to be adapted to address the specific needs of the more vulnerable groups. Finally, the development of a financial education programme is vital to enhance financial capability for consumers to participate effectively in the financial system that is dynamic and fast evolving. We are now in an environment that is seeing the proliferation of financial products and services and the emergence of electronic finance. Greater financial literacy will also ensure that the financial industry will be responsive to the more discerning demands. Being ill equipped or having a lack of understanding of the nature of the products could increase vulnerability to misselling by financial institutions or to fraud and scams. Proficiency in financial knowledge will contribute towards greater empowerment and competent financial decisions. Studies have shown that financial education that is made available at an early age, in the school education system, will strengthen this potential and enhance the greater financial inclusion.
8  BIS Review 126/2010  Figure 6 Stock market volatility (percent)  Long-term interest rates in developed economies (3) (percent)  120  120  6  6  100  100  5  5  80  80  4  4  60  60  3  3  40  40  2  2  20  20  1  1  0  0  0  0  07  08  09  10  Developed markets (1) Emerging markets (2)  05  06 U.S.  07  08 Japan  09  10 Eurozone  (1) Uses VIX volatility index. (2) Estimated volatility of the MSCI index in dollars. (3) 10-year government bond interest rates. Sources: Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Figure 7 Output gaps (*) (percent)  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4  -6  08  09 June 2010 Report  10  11  -6  September 2010 Report  (*) Gray area shows forecast as from the third quarter of 2010. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

We should not forget the lessons from the past and the reasons that led to the construction of our current European architecture. The Maastricht treaty includes strong safeguards against ‘fiscal dominance’, by granting independence to the ECB, introducing the monetary-financing prohibition and designing fiscal rules. These are not negotiable principles. Inflation should remain under the control of an independent monetary authority while fiscal authorities are in charge of the provision of public goods and income distribution, under the condition of debt sustainability. For this, it is necessary to preserve the credibility of the fiscal rules’ framework. In other words, I would not jump to a hasty revision of the Stability and Growth Pact. 2. Monetary and fiscal authorities should take into account the intertemporal consequences of each other’s actions. This means, as said before, that the central bank should only adopt measures that can be unfolded if inflation pressures or the risk of a deanchoring of inflation expectations materialize. Fiscal authorities instead must ensure that public debt will converge to a sustainable path in the long term even if interest rates return to higher equilibrium levels in the future. And they must – hopefully – improve the quality of fiscal expansions by favoring spending that enhance future long-term growth. This is especially true at present for the European and national recovery funds. 3. The rules on the exit from exceptional measures must be clear ex ante to avoid things going wrong in the future.
Jean-Pierre Roth: Prospects for the Swiss franc in the heart of the euro area Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Associazione Carlo Cattaneo, Lugano, 9 March 2005. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The launch of the euro in January 1999 fundamentally transformed the international monetary order. Switzerland, a small country that strongly depends on exports and capital transactions, suddenly found itself surrounded by a market with almost 300 million people sharing a single currency. What were the monetary consequences of this development, and what are the prospects for the Swiss franc, which is traditionally considered a "success product"? The role of the Swiss franc in commercial and financial transactions has certainly diminished. Although the euro is only rarely used as a means of payment in the Swiss market, billing within the euro area is increasingly taking place in the single currency only – a fact to which Swiss companies have to adjust. In the financial markets, the euro now acts as a counterweight to the dollar. The Swiss franc has thus lost some of its significance as a safe-haven currency and has performed more in line with its fundamentals. The introduction of the euro has, however, not affected our monetary autonomy or the Swiss interest rate advantage. The Swiss National Bank has been able to respond with flexibility and determination to the recent economic slowdown.

Is it possible to complement or modernise the framework to reduce known vulnerabilities while enabling investments that boost long-run potential growth and prosperity, and help alleviate some of the supply-side problems4 that contribute to high inflation? To give us a good foundation to start from, I would like to begin by briefly summarising what happened in the 1990s and how the economy has changed since then. 3 The Riksbank has for a long time been pointing out the risks associated with rising indebtedness; see, for exam-  ple, Ingves (2015). 4 For example, a lack of investments in the electricity grid cause a divergence of electricity prices across different regions of Sweden. Note that there is a big difference between long-term investments that improve the functioning of the economy and strengthen supply side, which dampens inflation, and discretionary fiscal policy that can temporarily support households and businesses but risks increasing inflation. 2 [16]  Drama thirty years ago We are living in dramatic times: A recent pandemic, war in Ukraine and inflation that has risen sharply around the world. One similarity between then and now is the major geopolitical drama. Then, there were revolutionary events such as the reunification of Germany in October 1990, the Kuwait war, the wars in former Yugoslavia which started in 1991, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December of the same year. The political events made their mark on economic developments. I have often thought of the 1990s crisis as a domestic financial crisis.
Transparency of the Central Bank of Chile Along with helping to mitigate uncertainty, trust is a fundamental asset for institutions and especially for a Central Bank whose mandate is structured from the perspective of the general interest and whose effectiveness depends on the responses of markets and economic agents. On previous occasions, we have argued that this attribute must be systematically cultivated, especially by seeking greater degrees of transparency in dimensions that are particularly relevant to the relationship between the Central Bank and the public. Page 12 of 27  The enactment of the Transparency Law has promoted many advances and initiatives on this matter in Chile. But in addition to complying with this legal obligation, the CBC has voluntarily implemented transparency policies or best practices applicable to the different areas of its work. This includes the recent approval of the Bank’s Transparency Policy,5 a document prepared within the framework of the 2018-2022 Strategic Plan, which aims to strengthen the relevant mechanisms, and is based on the standards contained in the IMF’s Central Banks Transparency Code. However, willingness or good ideas are not enough to enhance transparency in the adoption and implementation of our institutional decisions. It is necessary to periodically evaluate progress made and identify new opportunities for improvement. With this perspective, we have made a special effort to commission assessments on various dimensions of our performance to external and independent observers, who can contrast our efforts with the experiences of other central banks or with duly validated standards.

The previous trend growth update (2019), only considered changes in the labor factor associated with immigration to the country, without modifying the TFP growth assumption made in the previous estimate (2017). Page 6 of 27  As for the long-term prices of copper and oil, they are revised in opposite directions. Copper is raised from USD 2.7 to 3.3 per pound, while oil is reduced from USD 70 to 60 per barrel. It should be noted that these prices are the ones where the prices of copper and oil are expected to be in 10 years’ time. In the case of copper, this is different from the assumption used in the calculation of the structural rule, which corresponds to the average of the next ten years, and not its end point. The upward revision to the copper price stems from the expectation of exponential growth in copper demand associated with the “green wave”. This presents itself in a context where, although conventional demand is declining, the foreseen increase in production will be insufficient to offset the aforesaid demand increase due to said “green wave” towards 2030. For this to occur, new investment projects would need to enter the sector, and there are no such projects in sight. Moreover, in the past year different international organizations and specialized institutions have raised the copper price expectation five and ten years ahead and is now around USD 3.3.
This was more than a simple customs union since, from the beginning, external trade policy was a full Community competence. Even the CAP, whose image to day is not universally positive, was seen, at the time, as the archetype of a common policy, bringing together the shared interests and joint actions of member states. The project was further developed and enriched in two directions. A further impetus was provided by the adoption of the Single European Act in 1986. This Act set a timeframe for launching the Single Market and reaffirmed the need for achieving Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The Single Act created the framework for full economic integration, with total freedom in the flows of goods, services and capital between member states. Even today, in some service sectors, the EU is a more integrated area, from a legal and prudential viewpoint, than the United States. And second, the intrinsic solidarity between European nations was embedded into a policy of “cohesion” through which very important financial transfers took place, over a long period of time, between the richest and the poorest members. At some stage, some members have benefited for several years from such cohesion flows to an order of 5% of their GDP, significantly more than what most poor countries get from the IMF and the World Bank. Many other developments – both on institutions and policies – took place over the years. And it is clear that, to day, the EU is much more than an economic project.

There is still no indication of a general overvaluation based on the current price level, yet several indicators suggest that overheating is already becoming apparent in the owner-occupied apartment and apartment  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  building segments. There are also considerable regional differences, although there are signs that, already now, real estate prices in some regions are no longer justified by fundamentals. Should real estate prices continue to rise at the current pace and move away from the level justified by fundamentals, a significant price correction is more likely in the medium term. Such a price correction, together with a significant rise in mortgage loan defaults, would pose a threat to financial stability. Overall, however, there is some uncertainty about banks’ risk exposure. Given this uncertainty and signs of potentially adverse developments in the real estate and mortgage markets, there is a need for action in many respects. Therefore, the SNB and FINMA have already taken the first steps and intensified their monitoring of the mortgage market. For this purpose, at the beginning of 2011, the SNB launched a comprehensive quarterly survey of banks. In this survey, detailed information is collected on key risk indicators such as loan-to-value ratios and affordability criteria in the granting of mortgage loans. The survey results, which are expected from the autumn of this year, should contribute to a better analysis of the vulnerability of the Swiss banking sector and close existing gaps in data.
Likewise, we have not yet seen evidence that there is a critical mass of banks that would today consistently meet the “use” test spelled out in the New Accord. In the coming years, and we can start very soon, we look forward to continuing this dialogue with banks, banking associations, and researchers to find ways to move Basel in the direction of full credit risk models. Although banks and supervisors have much to do in the years ahead, we are confident that the development of an incentives-based capital framework, accompanied by more consistent and focused supervisory review and a concurrent enhancement of market discipline, will improve the management of risk across the industry, promote broader financial stability and resilience, and ensure that the banking system is better able to promote sustainable growth in the economy. 6  BIS Review 47/2003

Basel II provides a much better way of determining the appropriate level of capital to hold against risk. It does a better job of capturing default risk and the true extent of risk transfer in securitization, guarantees and credit derivatives. It provides explicit recognition of operational risk, which can be larger than exposure to market risk for some complex financial institutions, not just for processing or clearing banks. But Basel II is not the end of the process of designing a better regulatory framework for capital in financial institutions. As we move to refine and implement the Basel II framework for credit and operational risk, we need to strengthen the framework for market risk and encourage further improvements in how firms capture the possibility of extreme events. The current regulatory treatment of market risk does a good job of capturing directional risk from movements in interest rates, exchange rates and equity and commodity prices. It is less effective, however, in capturing the full range of risks associated with some newer products and trading strategies, where values can react sharply and discontinuously. In particular, the risks of trading strategies based on changes in the correlation between asset returns are not always captured under the current regulatory capital regime, nor are some of the risks associated with traded credit products. And given the relatively short history of some of these products, the current regulatory treatment of market risk may not capture the risks of these products going forward.
Additionally, before this sad event, the first release of the National Accounts for 2009 and data at hand for the period preceding the catastrophe showed domestic output and demand growing faster than previously expected. Let me discuss both in more detail. Incoming information since the statistical closure of our December Report suggested that the foreseen recovery of domestic output and demand was not only materializing but doing so faster than anticipated. GDP dropped 1.5 percent in 2009, less than the 1.9 percent drop that had been forecast in December. In the fourth quarter, GDP actually rose 2.1 percent annually. These figures showed a faster recovery for those industries more closely linked to domestic demand, particularly manufacturing and retail. In the second half of the year the economy grew at an annualized rate of around 6 percent, narrowing the output gap more than December’s forecast (figure 1). Domestic demand also fell less than forecast in December. Data for the last quarter of 2009 stood out because of the performance of consumption and investment in machinery and equipment. In addition, inventories for the year as a whole had a milder depletion than previously expected. Information available prior to the earthquake and tsunami pointed to a continuation of the strong evolution of output and domestic demand. Sales indicators showed an upward trend and indices of consumers’ and firms’ perceptions were at optimistic levels (figure 2). The labour market was also picking up, with increased employment and an evolving composition by occupation.

William C Dudley: The evolving structure of the US Treasury Market Conference – welcoming remarks Welcoming remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the evolving structure of the US treasury market conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 20 November 2015. *  *  *  Frank Keane, Michael McMorrow, Joseph Tracy and Nate Wuerffel assisted in preparing these remarks. It is my pleasure to welcome you to this conference on the evolving structure of the U.S. Treasury market. As you all know, the Treasury market plays a unique and crucial role in our economy, and in global financial markets more broadly. Treasury securities serve as a liquid investment and hedging vehicle for global investors, a ready source of collateral for many financial transactions and serve as a risk-free benchmark for other financial instruments. The Treasury market is important for the Federal Reserve’s implementation of monetary policy and also is a focus here at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in our statutory role as the Treasury’s fiscal agent. The Treasury market also helps to underpin the U.S. dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. And, of course, it is the primary means for borrowing to finance the U.S. federal government. 1 In recent years, the structure of the Treasury market has changed significantly. Trading has become increasingly electronic, and, in many cases, highly automated.