samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The outlook for commercial property prices and rents is uncertain because it largely depends on the future path of economic activity as developments in commercial property markets follow the business cycle rather closely (See Chart 6). Some forecasters expect continued decreases in capital values and rents throughout 2009 and 2010. Turning next to the household sector, although household indebtedness has stabilised over the past six months, the balance sheets of this sector remain a potential source of risk to financial stability. A relatively negative outlook for the labour market and household income is expected to offset, at least partly, the ongoing positive effect of the past declines in interest rates on the ability of households to service their debts. The annual rate of growth in loans to the household sector, especially for house purchase, has further moderated, in line with the weakness of economic activity, the uncertain income prospects and the marked slowdown in house prices (See Chart 7). Indeed, several euro area countries have recorded declines in house prices in the first half of 2009. BIS Review 168/2009  3  IV. Risks in the euro area financial system  Let me now turn to the main sources of risk in the euro area financial system. Investor appetite for risk has begun to return after the first quarter of this year, bringing with it an improvement in market liquidity and a decline in asset price volatility.

Funding liquidity problems continue to bring pressure on the major banks’ operations. While the conditions have improved substantially in most funding segments throughout 2009, including the money markets, some of these institutions and parts of the broader euro area banking system, remain reliant on temporary support measures extended by the Eurosystem and governments. Box 11 summarises the government measures to support the banking sector and discusses their implications for fiscal balances. Regarding the implementation of the measures, several conclusions can be drawn: First, the take-up rate has been generally low across all measures, but there are substantial variations: the use of recapitalisation measures has been relatively widespread, while the take-up rate for the issuance of bank bonds with government guarantees has been considerably lower than expected. Second, the largest part of the financial support has been provided to a relatively small number of institutions (See Chart 12). Indeed, about half of the extended support has been absorbed by the largest three recipient institutions in each category of support. The various measures to support the financial sector amount to considerable actual and contingent liabilities for euro area governments. Although they are expected to have only a small direct impact on government deficits in the short to medium term, potential fiscal risks in the form of higher refinancing costs are sizeable for all countries that have provided significant financial system support, as these measures seem to have had a negative effect on market perceptions of the creditworthiness of the respective governments.
At this point, let us make it clear that this work is not intended as a declaration of the SNB’s intent to issue wholesale CBDC, or indeed to offer another settlement model. Rather, the point is to act prudently and proactively so that we can continue to fulfil our mandate in the future. Integration of token money and book money Let me now turn to the integration of token money and book money. We do not yet know what role DLT and tokenisation will play in the financial system of the future (cf. slide 14). There are three possible scenarios. In the first scenario, both remain niche products. A second, hybrid scenario, in which assets can be transferred and paid for in both tokenised and traditional form, is also conceivable. In the third scenario, infrastructures would be based primarily on DLT, and assets would only be available in tokenised form. For the second and third scenarios, a seamless integration of different forms of money as well as a high degree of interoperability between existing and new payment and settlement systems are essential. A lack of interoperability may lead to segmentation of the financial market infrastructure. A lack of integration may lead to fragmentation of the monetary system and threaten the singleness of the Swiss franc. The SNB will pay particular attention to this issue. Conclusion This evening we have looked at how we can harness the potential of digitalisation and new technologies while at the same time maintaining security and confidence in the payment system.

Here, too, money and goods can be exchanged simultaneously on a DvP basis, but the challenge lies in coordinating processes across different infrastructures, each with a different underlying technology. Traditional financial market infrastructures use the synchronised settlement model for settling securities transactions, for example by coordinating the RTGS system with the securities settlement system. 7  The SNB is examining three models for token settlement Let me now turn to the question of how token transactions could be settled in central bank money. Given the potential of DLT and tokenisation, the SNB sees the need to take a close look at secure and efficient payment settlement in a token ecosystem. We are therefore launching a project in which we are testing three models in productive payment and settlement infrastructures (cf. slide 10). To this end, we are working with regulated financial market infrastructures and other market participants. The first model involves synchronised settlement (cf. slide 11). A link to the SIC system synchronises the settlement of tokenised securities with the settlement of payments. This ‘RTGS link’ was tested, together with SIX and the BIS Innovation Hub, in Phase I of Project Helvetia. Such synchronisation was shown to be technically feasible. Nevertheless, this model has significant disadvantages compared to integrated settlement, as DLT functionalities were limited. As part of the project, we are currently examining whether these disadvantages can be minimised by adjusting the SIC system or the link itself.
And it is the Open Letter system which both allows that more sensible approach to be explained by the MPC and allows the Chancellor publicly to endorse it.” Constrained discretion also provides much needed room for learning. Monetary policy remains more art than science, and its practice is riven with uncertainties and risks. As the present Governor put it in a lecture delivered in 1997 5 : ‘Inflation targets are a practical response to the fact that knowledge increases over time.’ So a framework of constrained discretion combines much needed scope to implement policy flexibly, in the light of both circumstances and experience, with the credibility benefits of committing policymakers to secure a pre-determined outcome for inflation. That, in essence, was the key difference from the failed experiments of the past. 4  The development of the MPC  The MPC got off to a good start. It inherited an inflation rate that had been low for the past 5 years. And the financial markets welcomed it by reducing the risk premia on UK assets. No one had very clear expectations about how it would behave or how it might think. While it inherited some technical features of the previous regime, the new Committee had quite a lot of scope to define its own operating procedures and intellectual framework. If not a blank sheet of paper, it was a book with many pages still to fill. As time has gone by, whole volumes have been filled. The Committee’s procedures and thinking have matured.

Indeed, such was the surprise that the market immediately revised up its expectations for future interest rates. And there was a measurable increase in uncertainty, as different interpretations of the Committee’s unusual action were debated across the wires. This episode highlights the difficult balance which the mature Committee needs to strike between innovation and predictability. Today’s Committee members – only one of whom has been there since the beginning – quite reasonably do not want to be unduly constrained by the habits of their predecessors. But the passage of time has given ‘the Committee’ a collective personality. So changing established patterns of behaviour requires at least as much care and explanation as in the early days of the framework. Second, even if we have not changed our procedures very much over the past decade, other central banks have. They have become much more transparent. And the debate about how much central banks should communicate – and how – has moved on, among academics, central bankers and central bank watchers. For example, a long-standing issue is how much central banks should say about their expectations of future interest rates. The traditional concern has been that commentators would mistake a projection for a commitment, the risk being that when interest rates did not change as projected this would be damaging to credibility. However, in recent years other central banks have moved increasingly towards giving indications about the likely path of interest rates, given their forecast for the economy.
But of late, we have noticed a worrying trend of FA representatives conducting or wanting to conduct other activities alongside providing financial advice. Let me give a few examples.   We have received queries from insurance agents who also want to be real estate agents. They want to be allowed to market and earn commissions from property transactions, often to the same customers they provide financial advice to.   Some FA representatives have even applied to the Casino Regulatory Authority for a junket promoter license!   MAS has received complaints against FA representatives who used their regulatory status to market questionable schemes in gold bullion. Some of these activities are clearly in conflict with FA activities. They risk undermining the interests of consumers. We will review the activities that FA representatives can conduct outside their advisory role, to ensure that representatives continue to put their customers first. Specifically, we will work with the industry on a list of activities that FA representatives should not engage in. To my mind, the activities with clear conflicts include:   money lending;    promoting junkets for casinos;    selling real estate; and    marketing investment products which do not accord safeguards to customers under the Financial Advisers Act. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  We will also review other activities that FA representatives engage in that are not in conflict but which may distract representatives from their professional focus.

One of the things that I strongly encourage for all countries is a review of implementation of the Basel Committee’s Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision. These principles are key to laying a successful supervisory foundation. Likewise, sound accounting and provisioning standards are critical to ensuring that the capital ratios, however calculated, meaningfully reflect the bank’s ability to absorb losses. This brings me to the second stage. Supervisors do not need to wait for the formal adoption of Basel II to start introducing or using the principles of the three pillars. On the contrary, incorporating these principles is excellent preparation for adopting Basel II in the future. For example, supervisors might choose to move towards a more risk-based approach to supervision, developing skills in assessing the quality of a bank’s risk management and its ability to assess risk exposures. At the same time, banks could be reminded of their responsibility to develop their own processes for evaluating their capital needs and a strategy for maintaining their capital levels, consistent with the principles of Pillar 2. With regard to the principles of market discipline in Pillar 3, supervisors may wish to focus initially on ensuring a baseline level of disclosures across all banks. This might include discussing with banks, investors, and other users of financial information their information needs and the tools available so that supervisors can tailor requirements accordingly. In my view, these two preliminary stages provide an excellent preparation for the “final” stage of moving to Basel II.
The latest forecast took note of the global slowdown and foresaw a precarious recovery. Overall, at global level, it looks like we are facing a slowdown at the end of a long expansion rather than an outright downturn. However, uncertainty is rising markedly: trade tensions, geopolitical risks across the globe, political risks in Europe, etc. This makes the current juncture harder to navigate. In the US, the macroeconomic outlook has led the Fed to, somehow, pause in its normalization process. In emerging markets, potential problems could be brewing as geopolitical issues (from trade tensions to Middle East developments) are compounded with financial fragilities. Europe also has its fair share of uncertainties, with a few risks still unresolved. The macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain: last year slowdown was mostly driven by idiosyncratic developments but their consequences over the next quarters and, more broadly, the influence of the global slowdown are still unclear. According to the latest projections of the Eurosystem, GDP growth in the euro area would decelerate significantly in 2019 at 1.2% (after 1.8% in 2018) before gradually increasing to 1.4% 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  in 2020 and in 2021. This deceleration is mainly driven by Germany and by Italy. The Brexit situation is unsettled.

These two trends, non financial actors leveraging up and greater risk taking by financial institutions, are indeed global trends. Within the euro area, credit distribution (bonds and loans) to the private sector has remained the most dynamic in France, resulting in a gradual but persistent increase in debt ratios. 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  More recently, credit has been getting some traction in other economies so that French developments may be informative of forthcoming developments elsewhere. In all cases, the concern is less about an immediate risk that one regarding the sustainability of the current developments. These are indeed medium-term trends deserving serious attention alongside other medium-term developments such as digitalization or climate change. The former (digitalization) hold very promising prospects in terms of efficiency, inclusiveness and quality of consumer services, etc. It is also a formidable challenge for the incumbents, threatening established positions and questioning business models. Depending on the reactivity of the various stakeholders, (traditional financial institutions, new players, established players in other sectors making a foray into financial services, regulators, etc. ), this challenge can be satisfactorily overcome or leave the whole financial system in a rather precarious situation. The latter (climate change) is a tremendous challenge that will contribute to reshaping the global economy and, more broadly society. This challenge is so significant that it is bound to have consequences for the financial system both as a risk concern and as a business issue.
While nominal export turnover fell sharply, real export volumes held up much better. Hence, when the strong appreciation of the Swiss franc raised prices for foreign buyers of Swiss products, Swiss companies responded by cutting export prices, thereby preventing a sharp fall in real export volumes. Further evidence for this ‘margin compression’ comes from our own surveys, which SNB delegates for regional economic relations conduct regularly among Swiss companies. Global demand conditions have deteriorated somewhat in recent months. Emerging market economies in particular – but also some commodity-producing countries – have seen economic momentum fade. By contrast, major advanced economies continue to recover, albeit at a modest pace. On balance, we expect the global economy to grow moderately in the coming years. This should help to partially offset the drag from the overvalued Swiss franc. Thus, following a contraction in the first quarter of 2015, economic activity in Switzerland expanded again in the second quarter. In our estimation, GDP is likely to grow by close to 1% this year. Price stability is not in doubt In the last part of my speech, I would like to present our inflation outlook. Last year, the inflation rate – as measured by the consumer price index – averaged around zero. This year, inflation has fallen well into negative territory.

Second, I will assess how the negative interest rate as a policy instrument has been transmitted to different segments of the financial markets. Finally, I shall discuss the outlook for economic growth and inflation in Switzerland. Following my speech, my colleague Dewet Moser will take a closer look at the many operational aspects involved in the implementation of our monetary policy. Monetary policy environment: breaking new ground On 15 January, the SNB discontinued its minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 to the euro, and announced a further cut in the interest rate on sight deposits to –0.75%. These decisions were the response to international developments. Over the course of 2014, market participants began to expect that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve would start increasing its policy rates. Meanwhile, the ECB indicated that additional monetary stimulus would be required in the euro area. As a result, the euro weakened substantially against the US dollar. The euro/Swiss franc minimum exchange rate came under intense pressure, and by midJanuary 2015, it had become clear that it was no longer sustainable. Had the SNB not acted as it did in discontinuing the minimum exchange rate against the euro, it would have been forced to buy enormous amounts of foreign currency. The SNB’s balance sheet would have expanded rapidly, potentially to a size that would have severely impaired our ability to fulfil our constitutional mandate in the long term.
Some people wonder why don’t we simply make the Charter part of the HKMA’s regulatory requirements for banks given the importance of fair customer treatment? My reply to this is that: banks have to deal with tens of thousands of customers every day to provide a great variety of services and conduct countless transactions. While imposition of regulatory rules would bring about some effects, no external rules could possibly be all-pervasive, more difficult still about transforming the corporate culture or long-standing values in workplace. Fair treatment of customers ought to be firmly embedded in the corporate culture of banks that all personnel – from board of directors, chief executives, senior management, to frontline employees – will accept, defend and uphold treating their customers fairly as a guiding principle. Banks’ incentive mechanism must also promote and support this culture in every aspect of the banks’ operations. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  6. Bank customers, as consumers of various types of bank products and services, should receive appropriate protection. While banks should treat their customers fairly, the latter should also be responsible and smart. The most basic requirement is that customers should try their best to understand the products and services provided by banks, including credit cards, personal loans, home mortgages and wealth management products, their relevant risks, costs and expenses, and whether the products and services are suitable for them.

Norman T L Chan: Focus in Hong Kong on treating customers fairly Speech by Mr Norman T L Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Treat Customers Fairly Charter Launching Ceremony, Hong Kong, 28 October 2013. *  *  *  Welcome to the Treat Customers Fairly Charter Launching Ceremony. I am pleased that representatives from 22 retail banks in Hong Kong gathered here today to sign the Charter, pledging to implement the five high-level principles set out therein. 2. A customer-based, customer-oriented corporate culture is what we always applaud and hope for. This is true regardless of industry. However, not every industry or company is able to achieve this, particularly when they are under the pressure of increasing market competition and the need for profit-maximisation, it is not uncommon for some companies to adopt sales and marketing practices that may undermine consumers’ interests. It has therefore led to the development of different consumer protection mechanisms in modern societies to address such issues, for instance, Hong Kong has established the Consumer Council in this context. Nevertheless, the international community is increasingly concerned about the interests of financial consumers in recent years. In late 2011, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has announced a set of high-level principles for protection of financial consumers. It is now in the process of developing effective approaches for implementing the principles with a view to promoting the principles to G20 members. 3.
François Villeroy de Galhau: Are the regulations implemented to guarantee financial stability compatible with the required acceleration in euro area growth? Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Académie des sciences morales et politiques (Academy of Moral and Political Sciences), Paris, 6 November 2017. * * * I would like to thank Anne-Sophie Cavallo, Marine Dujardin, Pierlauro Lopez, Elise Peron, Guillaume Richet-Bourbousse, Bérengère Rudelle, Valerio Scalone and Oana Toader for their help in preparing this speech. Dear Chairman, Dear Permanent Secretary, Dear Academicians, Ladies and gentlemen, It is an honour for me to speak before you this afternoon and I wish to warmly thank your Chairman Michel Pébereau for his kind invitation. We also have with us at this illustrious gathering some of my most renowned predecessors: Jacques de Larosière and Jean-Claude Trichet. I am very pleased that the topic you have chosen for this year is that of reforms. This term is often given too little prominence in France, between our supposed taste for revolutions and our actual conservatism.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Asia School of Business – meeting Asia’s increasing demand for talent Remarks by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Signing Ceremony of the Collaboration between Asia School of Business and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, 8 April 2015. *  *  *  President Rafael Reif, Dean David Schmittlein, And dear colleagues from MIT and the Asia School of Business It is my very great pleasure to be here in Cambridge at this ceremony today, for the formalisation of the collaboration between Bank Negara Malaysia and MIT for the establishment of the Asia School of Business in Kuala Lumpur. Bank Negara Malaysia has for more than a decade now, been involved in extensive investment in education – not only for the financial sector, but for the broader economy. Our reach has also not only been for the development of talent from our own country, but it has also extended to the Asian region and beyond. This is based on our conviction that the next generation of talent – whether in the private or public sectors – needs to recognise and understand the dynamics and interconnectivities of the new regional and international environment. In particular, as the pace of economic and financial integration that is now taking place in Asia intensifies, the talent needs to appreciate the implications of the new inter-linkages and its implications.