samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  15  Chart 5: Original Phillips curve  Chart 6: Unemployment and wage growth since 1971  20  35  18  1971-1997 1998-2012  30  2013-2017  16 25  12  Wage growth  Wage growth  14  10 8 6 4  20 15 10 5  2 0  0 0  2 4 Unemployment  3  6  5  7  -5  9  11  13  Unemployment  Sources: Phillips (1958) and Bank calculations  Notes etc  Chart 7: Illustrative impact on Phillips curve of changing equilibrium unemployment (U*)  Chart 8: Illustrative expectations-augmented Phillips curve At lower inflation expectations and/or real wage norms  Higher U*  At higher inflation expectations and/or real wage norms  Phillips curve at lower U*  Phillips curve at higher U*  Wage growth  Wage growth  Higher U* shifts curve by constant amount Higher inflation expectations or real wage norms shift curve by constant amount B A D C Unemployment  Unemployment  16  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  16  Chart 9: The policy-maker’s dilemma: level shift or slope?

As a result, real pay growth has ranged from minus 2% to plus 3%. But, due in no small part to the stickiness of nominal pay and its apparent insensitivity either to inflation or a very rapid fall in unemployment, domestically generated inflation pressure has remained low. A similar evolution of unemployment and pay has been seen in other advanced economies – particularly the 2  US. Indeed, the apparent disappearance of the relationship between pay and unemployment is for me the second big puzzle in advanced economies post-crisis. The first is the related puzzle of the disappearance of productivity growth which has almost certainly been responsible for some of the weakness in pay growth but that does not explain the full weakness (Chart 2). 3  Why does this matter? The Bank of England does not target unemployment, let alone pay growth. Monetary policy makers learned, painfully, around the time unemployment was last at 4.3% that monetary policy cannot in the longer run determine real things like unemployment. Attempts to do so can result in very perverse effects. Rather, they should direct their efforts to controlling nominal things like inflation. 4  1  Of the 22 quarters over 2012-2017, whole economy total (regular) wage growth fell below 1% in five (four) of them and breached 3% in one (none). 2  While some indicators of US pay growth have partially recovered (Yellen, 2017), the general picture remains one of relatively modest pay growth.
Not only is this the first such institution to be established in this country, but it also constitutes the first major visible sign of the formal commencement of organised capital market operations in Sierra Leone. This is a landmark in our financial history as we take a crucial step towards the further extension and deepening of our financial sector, which up till now largely consists of a money market. While this occasion is significant in its own right, I would like to stress that it is part of a process, rather than an event. From this perspective, it is simply the outcome of all the planning that has taken place in the context of deliberations in the Stock Exchange Technical Committee, work done by the Capital Market Unit of the Bank, and the inputs of local and foreign consultants, especially for the preparation of legal documents for the establishment of the capital market in general, and the stock exchange in particular. Sensitisation of various parties, including our Parliament, the press, representatives of the business community and the university has been undertaken, and will continue on a wider scale. Consultations have been held with some institutions in the public and private sectors to forge operational links in furtherance of the wider dimensions of the operations of the Stock Exchange. Further consultations of this sort will continue as the situation demands. All of these activities have crystallised in today’s inauguration of the Sierra Leone Stock Exchange. Again, this launching is not an end in itself.

Not only would we continue with the operationalisation of the exchange, but we will proceed with a number of related activities that will give greater strength and effectiveness to the new facility. BIS Review 107/2007  1  In pursuance of this determination, we will advance the plan to create appropriate links between the capital market programme and the national privatisation programme, with a view to increasing the volume of shares traded on the exchange and provide for a high level of liquidity in the market. We will also proceed with the finalisation of modalities for the creation of a venture capital company, which would serve, inter alia, to improve the profile of some of the state enterprises earmarked for privatisation. This will increase their attractiveness to investors and improve the quality of shares to be traded on the market. As you would be aware, the present condition of some of the enterprises proposed for privatisation would require some further work for high value divestiture. Their value would be enhanced through a process of mentoring and nurturing. Moreover, the sale of these enterprises should not benefit only a small section of the society. The venture capital company will perform the mentoring function and also hold some proportion of the shares of some of these companies for periodical release to small private investors, who may not have the capacity to purchase such shares were they to be sold in a single parcel.
For there are growing signs that higher prices are increasingly spreading to goods and services that are not directly affected by the war in Ukraine or the consequences of the pandemic. In addition, energy prices have continued to rise overall and are increasing inflationary pressure in many sectors. This heightens the risk of second-round effects. Ladies and gentlemen, the inflation and economic outlook remains subject to high uncertainty. Ensuring price stability is a challenge and demands the full attention of the SNB. Thank you. Page 5/5

In addition, it has discontinued its purchases of Swiss franc bonds issued by private sector borrowers. Indeed, movements in the Swiss franc against the euro over the past few months have caused monetary conditions to tighten somewhat. Yet, overall, monetary policy is still expansionary. The three-month Libor remains at a low-water mark of 0.25%, and we continue to supply the banks with generous amounts of liquidity. Let me now turn to the outlook for 2010 and the monetary policy challenges ahead. IV. Outlook for 2010  The global economy has been in a phase of recovery since mid-2009. The SNB expects that this will continue, although the recovery is still exposed to risks and will vary greatly from region to region. BIS Review 59/2010  3  The greatest expansion will be seen in emerging Asia. The entire region will, in particular, benefit from the strong growth in Chinese domestic demand. In the industrialised economies, the recovery is still being driven by the expansionary monetary and fiscal policy measures adopted at the start of the crisis. At the same time, there are a number of factors weighing on growth prospects. High unemployment, growing sovereign debt and the deterioration in household wealth are likely to dampen private consumer spending in many economies. In addition, given the underutilisation of capacity and the tighter lending conditions, corporate investment seems unlikely to stage a strong recovery. Moreover, in a number of countries the situation in the real estate market, and hence the outlook for the construction industry, will remain difficult.
These market inefficiencies also lie behind – at least in part – the changes in inequality in Spain during the crisis. Over the course of the Spanish recession, strong job destruction, concentrated among certain groups, and the precariousness of many contractual relationships that arose from this more uncertain macroeconomic setting prompted growth in inequality in per capita income, despite the fact that wage differences among workers oscillated less than in other developed economies. The current upturn and, in particular, strong employment creation are allowing some correction of per capita income inequality. However, looking ahead, additional reductions in the indicators of income inequality will depend on continuing reductions in unemployment, which requires improvements in the employability of the lesser-skilled and an increase in the hours actually worked by employees with lower wages. In any event, the causes behind the dynamics of inequality and its effects are complex, and learning about them will involve analysing in depth the various key facets (wages, household income, consumption and wealth, among others), this being an essential requisite for designing public policies conducive to socially sustainable growth. Against this background, allow me to refer to the discussions surrounding the national minimum wage. The Annual Report mentions the effect of the increases approved in 2017 and 2018, of 8% and 4%, respectively.

As I said when I officially took up office, the main objectives are to increase the presence and influence of the Banco de España at the European and global levels, and to reinforce its early-warning capacity regarding identification of the vulnerabilities and risks to the Spanish economy’s financial and macroeconomic stability, as well as its responsiveness in mitigating these risks and preventing their materialisation. In short, we aspire to a more open and transparent institution, and one more flexible and efficient, that harnesses its human and material resources to the full, under the guiding principles of independence, intellectual rigour and excellence. Following this introduction, allow me to turn to the central purpose of this appearance. As you know, in late May the Banco de España published its Annual Report, which reviews economic and financial developments in the Spanish economy, and in the European and international environment, together with the main challenges and vulnerabilities facing it. The Annual Report is the Banco de España’s main publication in respect of its functions as the monetary authority and adviser to the Government on economic policies. Accordingly, I would like to begin by summarising the main aspects of the current situation of the Spanish economy and its external environment, along with its short and medium-term risks, moving on subsequently to describe the challenges our country faces over a longer horizon. External environment As regards the external environment, the global economy has, so far in 2018, shown signs of slowing, following the high growth recorded in 2017 (see Chart 1).
Mark Carney: One mission. One bank. Promoting the good of the people of the United Kingdom Text of the 30th Mais Lecture by Mr Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, at Cass Business School, City University, London, 18 March 2014. *  *  *  It is a great honour to be invited to give the 30th Mais Lecture. This lecture series has charted the evolution of UK macroeconomic policy through the eyes of leading policymakers, including my four predecessors as Governor. The Mais Lectures span a period during which the focus of macroeconomic management was firmly on monetary policy. They helped establish a broad consensus for the primacy of price stability as well as the institutional framework necessary to deliver it. This focus initially made sense since one of the greatest challenges for macroeconomic policy in the late 1970s and 1980s was the fight against inflation.1 That fight culminated in the adoption of an inflation target, which helped secure 15 years of price stability and sustained economic growth. However, with time, a healthy focus became a dangerous distraction. The financial crisis that exploded the Great Moderation was a powerful reminder that price stability is not sufficient to maintain macroeconomic stability. Words which had alluded to such risks were not followed by actions that might have prevented them being realised. Lessons have since been learned. In the wake of the crisis, the Bank of England would be promised enormous new powers and responsibilities.

The model used for monetary policy of decisions being made by a committee made up of both Bank of England executives and independent experts has been expanded to financial stability with the creation of both a Financial Policy Committee and a Board of Prudential Regulation. As I have argued, those policy committees will be more effective if they have access to the broadest range of the Bank’s analysis and information and are as well informed as possible about each other’s reaction function. The now very wide range of the Bank’s responsibilities also creates a need to strengthen the oversight arrangements for the Bank as a whole. For delivery of our statutory objectives, the Bank is accountable to the public, through Parliament’s Treasury Committee. That accountability is being reinforced. Parliament has created an Oversight Committee of 8 non-executives who are in the Bank but not of the Bank. The Government has today announced the appointment of Anthony Habgood to lead the Bank’s Court of Directors and the Oversight Committee. I welcome the appointment of someone of his depth and breadth of corporate experience. Independent oversight by the committee he will chair can strengthen the Bank’s legitimacy and effectiveness. The Oversight Committee has access to internal papers, is able to observe meetings of policy committees, and is responsible for reviewing all aspects of the conduct of the Executive of the Bank, including the delivery of policy, the design of and adherence to rigorous processes and procedures, and the monitoring of our transparency and openness.
Another notable development is the joint venture by Singapore’s Keppel T&T and Saudi Arabia’s Al Rajhi Group to create the world’s first Shariah-compliant data centre fund. Last week, the fund managed to secure an initial $ million from institutional investors in Asia and Middle East. We also understand that various market players are in the midst of preparations to launch and list Islamic Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), which will further boost Singapore’s position as the largest REIT market in Asia ex-Japan. 16. In talent development, several credible players have initiated training courses and programmes to enhance the financial sector’s capabilities in Islamic finance. For example, the Singapore Management University has started an International Islamic Law & Finance Centre to promote high-quality research, training and professional education. Such efforts will further support the growth and innovation of Islamic finance in the region. Conclusion 17. I am therefore pleased to launch the inaugural WIBC Asia Summit today. Such events serve to bring industry leaders together to explore and create business partnerships to capitalize on new opportunities in the Middle East and Asia. The financial crisis has not diminished the Asian growth story; in fact Asia has emerged even more compelling with growing exports and investment spending. Singapore is well-positioned to be the launch pad  BIS Review 84/2010  3  for GCC businesses entering and investing in Asia. The Middle East also offers plenty of opportunities for Asian businesses to participate in its growth. 18.

They have implemented broad-based development strategies to diversify their economies away from hydrocarbons and harness new growth drivers. While the energy-related sector will remain an important  BIS Review 84/2010  1  pillar in Asia-Middle East relations, we should develop other complementarities between the two regions such as in financial and business services, infocomm technology and media, infrastructure development, tourism as well as green technology and life sciences. 6. In this respect, the linkages between Singapore and the GCC have deepened. We have signed the milestone GCC-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Singapore companies, such as Capital and in Bahrain and UAE, Changi Airport International in Saudi Arabia, Keppel Corp in Qatar and SembCorp in UAE and Oman, have secured about $ billion of projects in the GCC. In addition, a strong cluster of Middle Eastern banks, such as Arab Bank, Emirates NBD, First Gulf Bank, National Bank of Kuwait and Qatar National Bank, is already based in Singapore. Quite a few are looking to expand their operations in trade finance and wealth management to capitalize on new growth opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region. 7. By strengthening linkages at all levels, the Middle East and Asia can then complement each other’s development and seek out new growth areas for mutual benefit. Inter-regional platforms have been established to achieve this; for example, the Asia-Middle East Dialogue (AMED) and the ASEAN-GCC Ministerial Meeting, which was held in Singapore recently.
In current, unstable circumstances, what role should the central bank play? Monetary policy should certainly stick to its mandate and ensure price stability in the medium run. In Europe, with financial conditions tighter as a result of the explosion in sovereign spreads, increased uncertainty and loss of confidence, – as shown by the fall in most indicators – there are now more downside risks to price stability. It was therefore appropriate to lower our policy rates by 25bp, a decision reached unanimously by the Governing Council. Second, we need to ensure that the banking system has access to liquidity –what is sometimes called the role of lender of last resort of the central bank. In this respect, the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Eurosystem has confirmed its policy of providing unlimited liquidity – at fixed rates – to the banking system until at least until the end of Q2 2012. Collateral policy has been adjusted to avoid the shocks and liquidity squeezes borne out of rating changes. Dollar funding, based on the existing swap with the Federal Reserve, has also been made easier. Finally, in a period of intense market disruption, it is essential to ensure that the monetary policy transmission mechanism actually works. This may involve temporary and exceptional interventions on those market segments where dysfunctions are most apparent. This is the purpose of the Securities Markets Program (SMP), initiated in May 2010 by the Eurosystem.

Christian Noyer: Europe – a financial crisis, not a monetary one Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Paris Europlace Financial Forum, Singapore, 30 November 2011. *  *  *  The situation in Europe and the world has significantly worsened over the past few weeks. Market stress has intensified. Bond markets in the euro area are not functioning normally. Economies outside the euro area are feeling the effects of increased uncertainty, lower growth prospects and capital repatriation. In these conditions, it is important to clarify the mechanisms at work and identify the underlying causes. I will also discuss possible policy responses, from a Eurosystem perspective. The true nature of the crisis I will start with a paradox. Looking at fundamentals, the euro area today seems in a position of strength when compared to other developed economies. Growth has been stronger than in the UK and Japan since 2007. External accounts are in balance. Even the fiscal position is favorable. On aggregate, the euro area deficit (at 4% of GDP) is the smallest of all, less than half of that in the US, Japan or the UK. This remains true even for some peripheral countries. For instance, the Spanish fiscal deficit, at 6.1% of GDP, is much smaller than that in the US, the UK and Japan. Total gross public debt, at 67% of GDP, is amongst the lowest in the OECD.
Changes in unemployment appear to have a fairly immediate impact on wage growth. Chart: Wage growth and domestic inflation Not unexpectedly, there is also a close statistical relationship between wage growth and the rise in prices for domestically produced goods in the CPI7. It appears to take about one year for changes in wage growth to feed through to inflation. Such observations of data provide a picture of some of the interrelationships in the economy, but they say little about causality or how interest rates feed through to the economy. Correlations are nevertheless interesting as a background for the analytical tools that are used in interest rate setting. Chart: The interest rate is an endogenous variable Historically, the interest rate has been set in response to various developments and shocks. In this respect, the interest rate is an endogenous variable. The relationship between the interest rate and other key variables has through history also been influenced by shifting monetary policy objectives. If the interest rate is raised today in response to an unexpected change in price and cost inflation, a fall in capacity utilisation must be expected. However, if the interest rate is increased in response to an unexpected pickup in demand for goods and services, the path will be a different one. In historical data, a higher interest rate can go hand in hand with both lower growth and higher growth. It is therefore demanding to identify the effects of interest rate changes when studying historical data series.

Empirical methodologies may be used to uncover interrelationships in the economy with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Haavelmo’s contribution can be put to good use when Norges Bank, as the central bank, is to set the interest rate with a view to stabilising inflation. The Bank’s monetary policy assessments and decisions must be based on knowledge it can obtain on interactions within the Norwegian economy and how the interest rate interacts. The theory the Bank applies and the empirical methodology it employs will depend on the purpose of the analysis. A model apparatus that is to be used as an aid in making interest rate decisions requires different attributes and is based on different principles than models that seek to provide optimal nearterm inflation and output forecasts. Chart: Different time horizons – different models Current statistics and anecdotal information can serve as a basis for providing some indication of how the economy has evolved up to the present. But the statistical basis is uncertain. Statistics are published with a lag and are often subject to revision. Data from different sources can provide different pictures of the situation at hand. Statistical models can provide us with good support and help distinguish between news and noise in the data. They can capture time series properties in data and correlations that in many cases will be able to produce good forecasts of developments in the next months ahead. It then makes little difference whether or not the models are based on economic theory.