samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I believe that in the euro area R* can be estimated as below or close to 2% in nominal terms, and we could be there by the end of the year. Until then, we definitely have to act, in a determined but orderly way. Doing so is normalisation, only beyond R* would tightening begin if needed. The US is obviously closer to tightening: due to several differences in the nature of inflation across the Atlantic, the monetary answer must have its differences too. But in both cases, it’s not only a legal duty, it’s also an ethical commitment: ensuring price stability is our responsibility; our will and our capacity to deliver on our mandate cannot be subject to any doubt whatsoever. 3. Accountability Turning to the third corner of the golden triangle of trust, accountability, you remember that famous sentence by Alan Greenspan: “I know you think you  Page 6 sur 10 understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant”. This provocative sentence certainly captured the difficulty for central banks to account for their monetary policy, but let's be clear, it belongs – or must belong - to a bygone era. No matter how complex, it is central banks’ duty to account for their monetary policy decisions in a comprehensible manner; accountability is the natural counterpart for independence. This necessary change has both a cyclical and a structural component.

It is still hotly debated whether these sanctions are necessary and efficient, or on the contrary, whether they are counterproductive for the countries that initiated them. I believe that we should stick to a few simple facts and principles: (i) the surge in the prices of raw materials – primarily of oil – dates back to rumours of war and then to actual invasion in February, not to the sanctions that followed that invasion (ii) in the short term, the Russian economy seems to be losing less ground than expected, precisely because of that surge, but its long-term growth potential is obviously greatly weakened by technological sanctions (iii) there are moments where what is ethically fair prevails over what is economically necessary. Even if from time to time there may be contradictions between the two, a sustainable economy cannot exist without an ethical basis. But justice also enjoins us to deal with the situation of the poorest countries and people in this crisis. The world’s community drive to achieve unity, while respecting diversity, should nevertheless remain widely recognised as an essential aspect of the pursuit of  Page 8 sur 10 the universal common good. The tale of the euro is particularly inspirational in this regard. After several decades of incremental progress and preparation, it began in the 1990s, and it is worth reminding ourselves how far we have come, and the extent to which we owe this unique success to the will of visionary personalities such as Alexandre Lamfalussy or Jacques Delors.
The subsequent recovery has been remarkably drawn out and almost 10 years on, you could say that we have been living through a Great Transition. 2  I would like to highlight three pivotal transitional forces that have shaped our economic and political landscape. First, after decades of rapid expansion, world trade has slowed down considerably. During 2012 to 2015, world trade volumes grew at around 3 percent per annum, much less than the pre-crisis average of 7 percent for 1987-2007. Cyclical factors have certainly been at work, but the slower pace of growth relative to world GDP points to deeper structural forces at work. Chief among these is the waning impact from the integration of China and central and eastern European countries into the world economy, as well as the diminished room for further international fragmentation of production through global-value-chain trades. More speculatively, rising protectionism may have also dampened trade in recent years. Nevertheless, the level of trade integration across the world is as high as it has ever been. Second, economies the world over have seen a rising contribution of the service sector to growth. A key driver of this transformation has been technological innovation, especially in digital communication. For the world as a whole, the share of services as a proportion of GDP is now as high as 70 percent. This shift has not been confined to advanced economies but can also be seen in emerging markets.

6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  6  The great financial crisis and its aftermath was a painful reminder, however, of how financial markets, particularly in the international financial centres in which they have become concentrated:  -  can act to generate and amplify risk, rather than to spread and dampen it,  -  can become disconnected from the real economy and deflected into ‘socially useless’ activity and  -  can become subject to ethical drift and lose the social license on which ultimately they depend. Financial markets currently face many challenges but perhaps none is as fundamental as maintaining the support of society for the functions they perform. Meeting this challenge will require them to show that they are fair as well as effective. And as my colleague Minouche Shafik has recently pointed out, while misconduct in financial markets is older than the South Sea bubble, the scale of the misconduct which has emerged since the financial crisis is 7  unprecedented. The magnitude of the fines is indicative of the scale of the problem – since 2008 wholesale market participants have paid $ billion in misconduct fines and the story is not yet over. Perhaps most worrying is that while some of this relates to misconduct before the financial crisis, a good part of it is more recent. A year ago, the Bank used its convening power to bring together a wide range of stakeholders and market participants in an Open Forum on Fair and Effective markets.
As they stand, the current technical proposals put forward for consultation by the Basel Committee do not respect this commitment: they must therefore be revisited. Second, we should be careful not to oversimplify the regulatory framework and loose the risk sensitivity. Adjustments to the internal models approach should not amount to imposing the standard approach on all, either explicitly, or implicitly by applying poorly calibrated “output floors”. *** Let me conclude with some words on the strengths of the Paris financial centre itself: robust banks and insurance companies, a dynamic asset management industry, strong financial market infrastructures, a highly skilled labour force. And you can be assured of three points: 1. First, French authorities, including the Banque de France, attach utmost importance to making sure Paris is one of Europe’s strongest financial centres. This is crucial for employment, for investment, as well as for the strength of the euro area economy as a whole. 2. In addition, we are already making every effort to build an innovation ecosystem: through the recent and efficient ACPR-AMF cooperation on FinTechs; through our support for the development of new tools – such as ESNI on securitization and Euro GC+ on repos, or our upcoming project to test interbanking information sharing processes based on blockchain technology; and also through our partnerships with many French universities renowned for their excellence and their Masters in Finance. 3.

To achieve this, the priority is to boost business investment – in France it is currently forecast at +3.4% for 2016. This depends on economic levers, to be strengthened through structural reforms. But it also depends on financial levers – the core challenge being equity financing, which is key for innovation. In this respect, Europe is lagging far behind the US: the equity share of corporate financing in the euro area is 52% of GDP compared with 121% in the US. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  France and Europe do have substantial strengths to meet this investment challenge. Let me focus on two of them today: –  First, savings are abundant. In France, the household saving rate is high: 14.1% of gross disposable income in 2015, second only to Germany (17.4%) among the main European economies. In the euro area, the current account surplus is substantial: more than 3% of GDP in April 2016 – meaning that savings exceed investment by nearly EUR 330 billion. This gap needs to be closed by fostering investment rather than by reducing savings. –  Second, our financial system is solid. The regulatory and supervisory frameworks have been considerably strengthened since the crisis, both at the international and European levels. Today, the French banking system is one of the soundest in Europe and in advanced economies: between 2008 and 2015, the CET1 solvency ratio of France’s major banking groups more than doubled, from 5.8% to 12.6%, which is EUR +143 billion of core capital.
It will be a more diverse and vibrant landscape in the future. BIS Review 163/2009  1  8. However, growth is not to be taken for granted. Many challenges remain. Let me suggest three areas where policy makers and financial practitioners in the Middle East and Asia can work together to contribute to growth and development. 9. First, at the recently-concluded APEC meetings in Singapore, it was recognised that sustainable global growth will require structural reforms and a new growth paradigm. We can no longer rely on export-led growth in developing countries and high consumption in the developed world driven by excessive leverage and asset appreciation. Big economies like China and India have greater scope to restructure their economies and raise domestic demand. Smaller economies such as Singapore and Bahrain have to re-orientate themselves and respond nimbly to new opportunities in global markets. 10. In both the GCC and Asian regions, the funding needs to support growth and development are large. For instance, the Asian Development Bank has projected that Asia requires $ trillion of new infrastructure over the next decade. Such investments are important for economic growth, as well as for raising the quality of life by providing better access to education, health care and sanitation. Hence, as part of the structural reforms, governments need to put in place investment frameworks that promote and mitigate the risk of such long term investments. 11. Second, proper financing structure for such investment is crucial. Today, there is strong risk appetite for emerging market assets.

Heng Swee Keat: New strategies for new economic realities Remarks by Mr Heng Swee Keat, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the 16th Annual World Islamic Banking Conference, Bahrain, 7 December 2009. *  *  *  H.E. Governor Rasheed M. Al Maraj, Central Bank of Bahrain, H.E. Aset O. Issekeshev, Minister of Industry and Trade, Republic of Kazakhstan, Your Excellencies Distinguished guests Ladies and gentlemen 1. Good morning. I am honoured to speak at this plenary session of the 16th World Islamic Banking Conference. Global crisis and recovery 2. The theme of “New Strategies for New Economic Realities” is timely. Last year, the financial crisis that enveloped the world was unprecedented in scale, complexity and speed of transmission. Major financial institutions have failed and others continue to face significant challenges ahead. 3. The outlook seems better now than a year ago. Equity markets have rallied and credit spreads narrowed. Many Asian and GCC economies have recovered more quickly and strongly than expected with China and India leading the way. ASEAN-5 and GCC countries are expected to post small positive growth in 2009. Going into 2010, growth in ASEAN-5 and GCC is estimated to rebound sharply to 4% and 5.2% respectively. 4. However, sentiments remain volatile and investors react sharply to bad news, as recent events have shown. The global de-leveraging of financial institutions is still on-going.
6 [20]  The acute global financial crisis, which was triggered by Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008, entailed many lessons for monetary policy. It was obvious that the global financial markets had integrated over the years. A disruption to the US mortgage market soon had global consequences. And during ‘The Great Moderation’, a trend had been happening off the radar, namely that global real interest rates had fallen (see Figure 4). This means that the neutral policy rate, that is the level of the policy rate that neither stimulates nor slows down the economy, had fallen. 19 And this became significant now that the enormous economic downturn created a very substantial need for monetary policy stimulation. It became clear that the lower bound for the policy rate was not merely an interesting fact, but a real limit for monetary policy. In many countries, the policy rate was cut to close to zero (see Figure 5). Estimates indicate, for instance, that the policy rate in the United States would actually need to have been cut to −4 per cent. 20 This gave rise to a discussion on which new monetary policy tools could be used to attain further stimulation. Quantitative easing in the form of purchases of government bonds or other securities and forward guidance became two of the most known tools that were used to enable the central banks to meet their price stability objectives.

Joseph Yam: Financial market developments in Hong Kong Remarks by Mr Joseph Yam, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Euromoney 40th Anniversary Gala Dinner, Hong Kong, 16 July 2009. *  *  *  It is a great pleasure to be able to share the honour at this evening's Euromoney awards dinner with so many excellent recipients. And it is a particular honour to receive the award for "Outstanding Contribution to Financial Markets". This is a threefold honour. First, because it is awarded by Euromoney, a publication – or rather an institution – with a particularly strong relationship with central banks and markets in this region. Secondly, because the award is presented to the HKMA as a whole, as a recognition of the hard work of staff from all parts of the organisation who have helped develop financial markets. And thirdly, because the award highlights an area of our work that usually receives less acknowledgement than it should: the development of financial markets not just through encouraging product innovation, but also through laying down the infrastructure to enable markets to function and grow. It is, I think, entirely appropriate that this evening's event is being held in a restaurant on top of the Star Ferry Pier – as we are from time to time reminded by the swaying of the structure and the occasional battering from the ferries themselves. Transport links are a good analogy for financial infrastructural links. They involve both local and international networks.
As we all know from first hand experience, the world economy is being transformed by the lowering of all sorts of barriers to the free movement of people, money, knowledge, goods and services. These trends are, of course, as old as human history. But there have been periods, like the second half of the nineteenth century, when globalisation has proceeded rapidly and periods, like the first half of the twentieth century, when it has gone into retreat. The past fifteen years or so have been a period of major advance as a result of far-reaching political and regulatory changes as well as revolutions in technology and communications. The pace of change has been striking in several key areas. First, international capital flows have grown explosively, as financial markets have become more integrated. As a result, the value of the global stock of assets in cross-border ownership tripled over the ten years to 2004. As well as increasing the scope for mobilising savings and allocating capital across different markets, the development of deep and liquid international financial markets has opened up new possibilities for diversifying risks and smoothing the adjustment to unforeseen events. This should promote both economic stability as well as growth. BIS Review 116/2006  1  Second, the sheer scale and pace of economic development in China is without precedent. What is not new is its strong export orientation – this was the route taken by Japan and the East Asian Tiger economies.

Is there a risk that the Great Stability has conferred a golden halo on the Committee which is only partly deserved? And that a more turbulent set of events could cause that halo to slip, and possibly trigger a sharp loss of credibility? The MPC clearly cannot afford to be complacent. And we – and you - need to be realistic about what monetary policy can – and cannot - achieve. That said, I am confident that our present policy framework does have the capacity to withstand more turbulent times, should they materialise. After all it was designed for them. 6  BIS Review 116/2006
I hope this new edition will be appreciated as much as, or even more than the previous ones. Before we start the discussion, let me briefly share with you some personal thoughts on this subject. The digitalisation of financial services is clearly a fascinating subject. It is also an issue that is particularly relevant at the moment, as the emergence of digital technologies is coinciding with a period of burgeoning recovery. The fact that regulators, and notably the Banque de France, are turning their attention to these issues should come as no surprise. It is our responsibility, as central bankers and regulators, to strike the right balance between the obvious benefits that digital innovation can bring to the financial sector, and the need for an adequate framework to mitigate risks and guarantee financial stability. The search for this subtle balance can best be represented as a trinity comprising innovation, stability and regulation. We are thus facing a form of “trilemma”, and our role is to build a “possible trinity”. 1. With regard to the first element: innovation. The Banque de France is a proponent of digital innovation in financial services. There is no denying that technology has opened up a wealth of opportunities for innovation, and that we still haven’t unlocked its full potential. However, in finance, the majority of these innovations also have the potential to be highly disruptive, be it in payments, in financing (think of crowdfunding) or in financial markets (think of HFT, which has more questionable objectives).

François Villeroy de Galhau: Financial stability in the age of digital industry Introducing speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Paris Europlace International Financial Forum, New York City, 18 April 2016. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to introduce this third round table by presenting the latest issue of the Banque de France Financial Stability Review entitled “Financial Stability in the Digital Era”. This new edition of the FSR addresses a very topical issue in the financial world, the impact of digitalisation and how to regulate such changes where necessary. I am keen to hear today’s exchange of views. In this FSR, we have gathered contributions from prominent academics, practitioners and policy-makers in order to shed light on the impact of innovation on financial stability. I would like to express my sincere thanks to all the contributors who have provided their views and analyses on such a technical and forward-looking topic. I cannot list all the contributors just now but I would like to give a special mention to Ms Karen Gifford who is with us today. The contributions presented in the FSR are very diverse in nature. The aim of the FSR is to help readers form an opinion; it is not designed to convey the explicit message of the Banque de France. The core aims of our Review are to exchange ideas, explore a given theme from various angles, and juxtapose different analyses and opinions.
But first of all, let me briefly outline what exactly have been the challenges in recent decades that have required us to rethink the way we conduct policy. Globalization has been a long and drawn out process. Countries have jumped at the opportunity to reap the benefits of globalization, with advanced countries leading the pack. Jumps in technology in recent decades, particularly in information and communications, have ensured that services – particularly financial services – have become truly borderless for advanced and developing countries alike, in a much shorter period of time. 2. Challenges to traditional monetary policy under globalization  We are all familiar with the benefits of globalization, with the past few decades seeing cheap exports from emerging markets fueling global trade and growth, albeit with some hiccups along the way. China’s accession to the WTO and the subsequent flux of Chinese exports to the rest of the world, as well as oil exports from the Middle-East, helped to create an environment of prolonged low global prices and low global inflation. We are all familiar with this episode and have given it a few names: the great moderation, the Goldilocks’ economy – not too warm and not too cold, and stable disequilibrium. This is an episode in our history where variability of growth in real output has declined along with the variability in inflation. Along the way, imbalances in the global economy began to build up.

Year 2004 was characterized by the achievement of fiscal objectives in terms of budget expenditures and budget deficit, and also by a more uniform allocation of fiscal expenditures. Government demand for loans has been distinguished by a rising level during the second semester, however remaining within the projected levels. Also, the annual rate of the change of current budget expenditures was stable. The implementation of a prudential fiscal policy has provided the appropriate conditions to better control inflation rate. During the second half of 2004, the Bank of Albania monetary policy has kept an easing tendency, aiming above all at reducing the borrowing cost in the economy. Bank of Albania has twice cut the core interest rate, in July and November, by 0.25 percentage points. These cuts have brought the core interest rate to the lowest historical rate, by 5.25 percent. The banking system was characterized by an accelerated lending activity to the economy during 2004. The credit balance increased by LEK 9.2 billion during June-November 2004, being 51 percent higher than the balance growth in the first semester of the year. Lending to the economy is given an everincreasing importance in the assets structure of the banking system, constituting a considerable source of the demand for monetary assets. The credit/deposit ratio increases on a continuous basis, an indication that positively introduces the function of the intermediation role of the banking system in supporting the economic development.