samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The result, again, is a more efficient allocation of global capital than would otherwise be possible. To the extent, therefore, that reduced volatility in the foreign exchange market stems from improved transparency, I would view this result as a beneficial by-product -- one that also contributes to the ultimate goal of economic and monetary policy: namely, sustained growth and a stable price environment. The move toward increased transparency in global markets and the accompanying relative decline in foreign exchange market volatility and trading ranges that we have observed in the last year and a half have posed considerable challenges to market makers, spot traders, and brokers, on both an institutional and a personal level. There is an axiom in these markets that volatility is good for market makers. I believe that this is a short-sighted view. On the contrary, I  BIS Review 60/1997  -6-  would submit that excessive volatility not only frightens investors, but also potentially undermines growth and, in so doing, benefits none of us. As a result, I cannot help but conclude that stable -- and not volatile -- markets are in the best interests of both central banks and the financial community. Stability in foreign exchange and other financial markets, along with price stability, is vital to the promotion of sustainable economic growth and rising living standards for everyone.

But, above all, it has been a key tool for ensuring the maintenance of affected employees’ income and for improving the prospects of recouping employment once the restrictions on activity imposed by the state of alert are lifted. The particular characteristics of this shock, which temporarily shut down many workplaces, and the incentives approved for the use of this instrument after the state of alert was declared have contributed to a much greater resort to ERTEs than in past crises. Hence, if we focus on the arrangements available for permanent employees, at end-April the number of workers affected by an ERTE totalled 3.4 million. Since then, this figure has fallen significantly. Moreover, on the information available, only a very small portion of wageearners who have emerged from this situation have gone into unemployment or become idle, whereas most of those affected have returned to their pre-crisis job. These developments are qualitatively consistent with the objective pursued; namely, that ERTEs would be a temporarily used tool while the transitory shutdown in activity lasted. In late June, coinciding with the end of lockdown-easing, 1.8 million workers continued to avail themselves of an ERTE. This figure is almost half the end-April peak and accounts for close to 10% of total wage-earners, confirming that one of the characteristics of this recovery is its incompleteness. From the standpoint of the labour market, what we have is also an uneven recovery. This is because the reduction in the number of workers on ERTEs has been very uneven across the productive sectors.
At the monetary policy meeting on 5 July, the risk of the inflation target being exceeded in the Riksbank’s normal time horizon of one to two years still existed. The situation was the same as when the interventions began except that the krona’s dramatic weakening had been checked. Resource utilisation was judged to be high, notwithstanding the ongoing slowdown, and there were no grounds for being more optimistic about the krona’s future path in a longer perspective. Moreover, although the substantial price increases in recent months were considered to be mainly transitory, there was a risk of them influencing inflation expectations. There were signs of slackening growth in the euro area and Japan but it was judged that towards the end of the year, developments in the United States would result in a gradual recovery that would spread to other countries. An overall assessment of these factors led to the Riksbank’s decision to raise the repo rate from 4 to 4.25 per cent. Inflation expectations, which according to some indicators had tended to move up in the spring, returned during the summer to a level in line with the inflation target. The exchange rate stabilised. At the monetary policy meeting on 23 August the Riksbank’s forecast was that the rate of inflation two years ahead would be approximately 2 per cent. Against this background the repo rate was left unchanged. It was considered that demand had continued to weaken, both in Sweden and internationally, which should reduce the risks associated with the weak exchange rate.

Such a prudential regulatory design would further complement concurrent efforts that are underway to develop Islamic financial markets and Islamic financial instruments. This architecture will contribute towards the development of a robust and resilient Islamic financial system that can effectively preserve financial stability and contribute to balanced growth and development. Ladies and Gentlemen: In recognition of this need, a proposal was made two years ago to establish an organization to spearhead the development of a uniform set of prudential, supervisory and disclosure standards for the Islamic financial services industry internationally. This proposal was crystallized and endorsed during a consultative meeting of a group of Central Bank Governors, and officials from the Islamic Development Bank (1DB), the Accounting and. Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Prague in September 2000 during the occasion  BIS Review 64/2002  1  of the lMF-World Bank Annual Meetings. The endorsement set in motion the formation of a preparatory committee, with officials from Bahrain, Iran, Malaysia and Sudan, and representatives from the IMF, IDB and AAOIFI, to develop the terms of reference and operational structure for the Islamic Financial Services Board. In a meeting of Governors in April this year, Malaysia was mandated to lead a Steering Committee for the establishment and inauguration of the Islamic Financial Services Board in Kuala Lumpur. Today's historic event is the culmination of this extensive two-year consultative process.
In Sweden, however, inflation has significantly undershot the target of 2 per over the last 15 years. In other countries that have had a fixed inflation target for the same length of time as Sweden, the average inflation rate has instead been on target. At the same time, inflation expectations in Sweden have been anchored to the target. According to established economic analysis, anchored inflation expectations lead to a negative relationship between average inflation and average unemployment. Then the long-run Phillips curve is no longer vertical, but down-ward sloping, which is confirmed by data. That the average inflation rate has undershot the target in Sweden has thus probably led to substantial costs to the real economy in the form of higher average unemployment. This makes it important to ensure that average inflation is henceforth on target for an extended period of time. The too high average unemployment rate also means that the long-run sustainable rate of unemployment may have been overestimated. The Riksbank’s mandate for monetary policy Price stability and the highest sustainable rate of employment My view is thus that the Riksbank’s mandate for monetary policy means that monetary policy should stabilise inflation around the inflation target and unemployment around a long-run sustainable rate. I consider that this follows from the Sveriges Riksbank Act and the government bill containing the proposal for the current Act. The Sveriges Riksbank Act states that the objective of the Riksbank’s monetary policy shall be to maintain price stability.

It is particularly appropriate to overshoot the target when unemployment is higher than its long-run sustainable rate, as it can then reach its long-run sustainable rate sooner. The usual way of applying the current inflation target entails that even if the target is undershot over a period of time the central bank still endeavours to maintain inflation in line with the target. Thus the central bank does not attempt to compensate for the previously low inflation with a period when inflation is above the target. To ensure that average inflation is on target over a longer period of time, the central bank could instead have a so-called price level target that means the price level should be stabilised around a price level path that rises by 2 per cent a year. Such a price level target would mean that average inflation is at 2 per cent over a longer period of time. The advantages and disadvantages of a price level target have been discussed at length in academic literature (see for instance Bank of Canada 2011). Since a downward-sloping long-run Phillips curve makes it important to keep average inflation over a longer period of time on target, this strengthens the arguments in favour of a price level target. A less dramatic change would be a target in the form of a moving average of inflation over a longer period of time, for instance five or ten years (Nessén and Vestin 2005).
Currently, the focus is on defining the scope of conduct which will determine the internal organisation of the single mechanism, on developing a supervisory manual and on designing an exhaustive analysis of the situation of each of the banks that will be directly supervised by the single mechanism. This analysis of banks’ balance sheets is three-pronged: i) an evaluation of the risks for supervisory purposes, ii) an analysis of asset quality and iii) a stress test to be conducted in collaboration with the European Banking Authority. The aim is to obtain a score for each bank as a joint result of the three parts of the analysis. On this basis, specific supervisory actions will ensue, including where appropriate the requirement of additional capital for banks that do not meet the solvency requirements set. It is still somewhat premature to specify the details of the exercise. I would, however, like to stress the importance of the asset quality review – which focuses on substantiating their appropriate valuation in accordance with accounting principles – as a centrepiece of the analysis of the banks. The study will comprise a wide-ranging review of the banks’ balance sheets as at 31 December 2013, which will include credit and market exposures, on- and offbalance sheet assets, and domestic and international exposures. All assets are potentially subject to review, although on the basis of a risk-based approach, the asset quality analysis will focus on those balance sheet items of the various banks that are considered most important under the objectives of the exercise.

Demanding capital thresholds have been set for this component of the exhaustive analysis. Specifically, the reference value has been set at 8% in respect of top-quality capital (CET1) under the definition of the Capital Requirements Directive and Regulation that incorporate the Basel III Accord into European legislation. This 8% threshold is equivalent to adding, to the regulatory minimum of 4.5%, the capital conservation buffer of 2.5% and an additional  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1% to reflect the systemic importance of the significant institutions that will be overseen by the single supervisory mechanism. Finally, strict governance arrangements have been set for conducting the analysis, so as to provide for the consistency of the work performed by the national authorities in each jurisdiction. In this way, although the exercise will be carried out in a decentralised fashion, a significant central structure – with the involvement of external advisers – has been set up to ensure the maximum possible degree of uniformity. Evidently, it is a complex exercise posing numerous organisational challenges, and which must be performed with the utmost rigour to meet the objectives set and, above all, to ensure the comparability of the results obtained for each bank in each jurisdiction.
The decisive factor for the setting of rates would be the inflation prospects for the euro area as a whole. As Riksbank Governor, I would become a member of the ECB Governing Council and take part in the monetary policy decisions there. Naturally, this would affect our work on monetary policy. Prior to taking its interest rate decisions, the ECB does not perform its own assessments of inflation prospects for smaller Member States such as Sweden, so this would remain our responsibility. In light of this, it is natural that we should continue to publish assessments of the Swedish economy a couple of times per year. In this way, we would be able to make a contribution to the economic policy debate in Sweden. These assessments would also be important when we motivate, explain and justify the single monetary policy in Sweden. As part of the Eurosystem, the Riksbank would participate in the comprehensive analysis activities of the ECB. If we are to have any influence in this process, it is important that we have performed good analyses that are tailored to the essential, relevant issues prior to the ECB’s meetings. This points to a certain shift in focus from our day-to-day forecasting activities to in-depth analyses that are also of relevance to policy. One consequence of the Riksbank no longer setting the interest rate level in Sweden would undoubtedly be a decrease in the level of attention paid to our activities in the media and elsewhere.

At this point, there is too much room for interpretation in the standard, which could interfere with comparability and consistent application across countries. III. Addressing the emergence of new risks I turn now to the new risks that are emerging as challenges for the insurance sector. I would like to single out three for comment, each with a longer time horizon than the next: Brexit, cybersecurity and climate risk. In the short term, Brexit is, alas, the issue that will keep us busiest. The ACPR is working actively to ensure a smooth transition, but the time has come for insurers to set their contingency plans in motion. That means talking with supervisors in the UK and Europe. It will also mean getting new authorisations, transferring portfolios, relocating European companies and setting up 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  third country branches. Even if we hope to avoid it, we must be ready for a no-deal scenario. In this respect, it would be preferable to have European legislation in place to ensure that every relevant issue is dealt with in a harmonised manner; however, if need be, and as a backstop, the enabling legislation presented to the Council of Ministers on 3 October will allow us to take legal steps in France to manage – for those individuals insured in France – situations where UK firms have not already transferred their contract portfolios.
Nader Mehravari, 2013, Resilience Management through use of CERT-RMM and Associated Success Stories, 2013 IEEE International Conference on Technologies for Homeland Security. 5 Richard Caralli, Julia Allen, David White, Lisa Young, Nader Mehravari, and Pamela Curtis, 2016, CERT  Resilience Management Model Version 1.2: Service Continuity, CERT Program: Carnegie Mellon. Rico Brandenburg, Tom Ivell, Evan Sekeris, Matthew Gruber, and Paul Lewis, 2019, Striving for Operational Resilience: The Questions Boards and Senior Management Should Ask, Oliver Wyman. 6 David P. Moynihan, 2009, The Network Governance of Crisis Response: Case Studies of Incident Command  Systems. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 19, pp. 895–915. 7 Peter Senge, 2006, The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, New York:  Doubleday. Nancy Leveson, Nicolas Dulac, David Zipkin, Joel Cutcher-Gershenfeld, John Carroll, and Betty Barrett, 2013, “Engineering Resilience into Safety Critical Systems” in Resilience Engineering: Concepts and Precepts, Eds. Erik Hollnagel, David Woods, and Nancy Leveson. Dorchester, UK: Dorset Press. Resilience Engineering: Sidney Dekker, Erik Hollnagel, David Woods, and Richard Cook, 2008, New Directions for Measuring and Maintaining Safety in Complex Systems, Lund University School of Aviation. 8 Jonathan B. Wiener, 1998. Managing the Iatrogenic Risks of Risk Management, Risk, Health, Safety, and the  Environment, 39, pp. 9-82. 9 M-Trends 2019, FireEye Mandiant Services Special Report. 10 Nancy Leveson and John Thomas, 2018, STPA Handbook. Matthew Leitch, 2011, Intelligent Internal Control and  Risk Management: Designing High Performance Risk Control Systems, Burlington, VT: Gower Publishing Company. Deloitte, 2009, Mining Safety: A Business Imperative.

It explains the strength of mortgage growth after the jump in house prices in the years around the millennium. It accounts for the drop in mortgage growth almost to zero after the crisis, largely as the result of a sharp fall in the flow of transactions. It also suggests that, after a long period of relatively subdued growth in the purchase price of housing – since 2004 the average rate of increase has been 3% a year – we can expect the same for mortgage debt over the next few years. I say “pre-determined” but there are obviously risks to any such forecast. One is higher loan-to-value ratios on new mortgages (LTVs), a sign of looser supply. In the late 1980s boom the median LTV averaged over 85%, even as prices rose very rapidly (Chart 11). LTVs have been much lower since the early 2000s and, as far as the future is concerned, I’d note that, in 2014, the FPC put in place restrictions on the share of new mortgage lending banks could make at high loan-to-income (LTI) ratios. Against this backdrop, the chances of any material rise in the average LTV on new mortgages are low.
Today, from this modest ceremony, I would like to assure you that we are fully responsible for this as useful as difficult mission. The Bank of Albania will be always attentive to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability for the country. In the spirit of end-year celebrations, I cannot help focusing on the Albanian young generation, an inspiration to our work and a fruit of our investments for a better future. Following its established tradition, the Bank of Albania has the pleasure to announce the Governor’s Award for the best diploma theses in 2011”. This year, we decided to announce this award in this important activity, in the presence of friends and colleagues. This is an expression of our appreciation for research by these today’s students – tomorrow’s colleagues. The Bank of Albania pays particular attention to the young generation, especially to its education. When I look back and see how we started financial education five years ago, I recall what may be a naive but a significant comparison; Neil Armstrong’s landing on the moon. In addition to his famous quote “...That’s one small step for (a) man, a giant leap for mankind” he said “...the surface is fine and powdery. I only go in a fraction of an inch, maybe 1/8 of an inch, but I can see the footprints of my foot from the trail”. Looking back, we may spot our footprints.

That makes it all the more important to resist every kind of nationalism or isolationism. Both are however on the rise. That worries me a lot. BILD: In the United Kingdom there will even soon be a vote on a complete withdrawal from the EU… Draghi: I cannot and do not wish to believe that the British would vote to leave, because we are stronger together. But if they do, it should be clear to them that they would lose all the benefits of the Single Market. BILD: If you had a spare wish for Chancellor Merkel, what would that be? Draghi: That she continues to fight for Europe. BILD: And one last question. The Bundestag has invited you again: will you go? Draghi: Of course. It will be my pleasure. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Domestic assets may be purchased by foreign investors generating net portfolio inflows, which would raise domestic money growth. It is also true, however, that money and credit growth could trigger international portfolio flows. Specifically, two mechanisms can be identified through which liquidity affects international portfolio flows. First, strong money and credit growth in one country may induce capital outflows to foreign asset markets, thereby exerting upward pressure on prices for financial and real assets abroad. Second: At the same time, ample liquidity conditions in the domestic economy may fuel strong economic growth and be accompanied by higher asset prices, thereby inducing foreign capital inflows. The current magnitude of the stock of global liquidity and global savings is such that the asset prices and money growth of large economic areas, including the euro area, can be affected by them. In the same vein, large net capital inflows, as well as their sudden reversals, may also have important real consequences for large economies as they can systematically influence domestic monetary developments with potential implications for monetary policy. Evidence from the euro area shows that international portfolio flows have played an increasingly important role as a driving force for monetary dynamics. As you are aware, the ECB’s monetary policy strategy attributes a prominent role to the analysis of monetary aggregates and their counterparts in the assessment of risks to price stability over the medium to longer term.

Long-term interest rates (variation in basis points) May 2006(1) Argentina Australia Brazil Chile Eurozone Hungary Indonesia Japan Malaysia Mexico New Zealand Philippines Poland Russia South Africa South Korea Turkey United Kingdom USA  February 2007 (2) -4 15 25 11 108 118 -9 30 50 9 -72 -11 122 -679 4 8  --18 35 -7 -8 6 7 -4 -3 -6 -12 --5 0 20 -75 -9 -13  August 2007 (3) 382 Argentina -36 Australia 90 Brazil -8 Chile -26 Eurozone 53 Hungary 112 Indonesia -33 Japan 23 Malaysia 27 Mexico -60 New Zealand -- Philippines 12 Poland 26 Russia 3 South Africa -- South Korea 161 Turkey -34 United Kingdom -33 USA  (1) Shows variation between 10 May and 27 June. (2) Shows variation between 26 February and 5 March. (3) Shows variation between 19 July and 17 August. Source: Bloomberg. Something very simple reflects the proper functioning of our economy: in a moment where the world has seen a major retraction of credit operations, in Chile companies have continued to place long-term bonds in the private market. 8  BIS Review 97/2007  Conclusions It follows, then, that the Chilean economy has resumed a strong growth after the unexpected slowdown in the third quarter of last year. In parallel, due mainly to a different supply-side shocks, inflation has risen considerably. In this setting, monetary policy must, aside from anticipating the inflationary consequences of the business cycle, prevent second-round effects related to these shocks.