samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Despite the increase of light vehicle sales, overall consumer spending has been sluggish. While growth of retail sales in February was reasonably strong in nominal terms, it was considerably less impressive when the large increase of gasoline prices that occurred that month is taken into account. Based on data for the first half of March, gasoline prices are continuing to move higher which will further sap consumers’ real purchasing power. And growth of business investment spending, which was quite strong in the second and third quarters of 2011, entered the new year with little forward momentum. To put the recent pace of growth into perspective, we believe that the economy’s long-run sustainable growth rate (what economists call the potential growth rate) is around a 2 ¼ percent annual rate. We need sustained growth above that rate to absorb the substantial amount of unused productive capacity. Thus, our recent growth rates are barely keeping up with our potential. Although the sharp decline in the unemployment from 9 percent last September to 8.3 percent in February suggests we are doing better than that, it is important to recognize that about half of that decline was due to a declining labor force participation rate. In fact, had the labor force participation rate not declined from around 66 percent in mid-2008 to under 64 percent in February, the unemployment rate would still be over 10 percent. Also, it appears that productivity growth has slumped recently.

Due to favourable developments in prices for goods produced in Norway compared with prices for imported goods, our terms of trade have improved. The impact of the rise in oil and  2  BIS Review 107/2007  gas prices is particularly strong, but the terms-of-trade gains for the mainland economy have also been high. The labour market and the orientation of monetary policy Developments in recent years have paved the way for strong growth in employment, and the same applies today now that the cyclical upturn is in a mature phase. The labour market is tight. There have never before been so many vacancies in relation to the number of unemployed. Unemployment has fallen sharply in the past few quarters. The rate of decline and level of unemployment are reminiscent of two previous cyclical peaks, the one in the mid-1980s and the other that started in the late-1990s and continued into this decade. Both expansions culminated in a sharp rise in wage and cost inflation. While unemployment is now very low, the current upturn with high productivity growth and low growth in real wages has, from a corporate perspective, resulted in a reduction in employees’ share of corporate earnings. Historically, however, unemployment has been high when the wage share was low. What are the factors that can explain the current situation of both low unemployment and a low wage share? Developments in unemployment and the wage share have probably been influenced by a number of positive supply-side conditions.
However, this would have an unwanted and severe dampening effect on the economy and lead to an undesirable deviation from the optimal course of inflation. 23  22 23  Cf. Tinbergen (1956). Cf. Assenmacher and Gerlach (2008), Bean et al. (2010) and Svensson (2016). Page 12/16  Third, and connected with this, it is important to remember that interest rate rises affect the whole economy. Meanwhile, excesses often occur only in certain segments of the credit market. For these reasons it seems more expedient to curb excesses in the credit market primarily with instruments other than the interest rate tool. Of course, this presupposes that effective alternative instruments are available. 24 Macroprudential instruments  The focus here is on macroprudential instruments (cf. slide 24). This term describes instruments which are aimed at avoiding the build-up of systemic stability risks and are intended to make the financial system as a whole more robust to negative shocks. Macroprudential instruments have become more common since the global financial crisis. 25 The application of macroprudential measures in Switzerland is currently particularly important in view of the significant imbalances in the credit and real estate markets. The emphasis in Switzerland is placed on the sectoral countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and on guidelines that address credit demand (cf. slide 25). The sectoral CCyB obliges banks to hold more equity capital when imbalances build up on the mortgage market.

Loans: Commonplace since ancient times  Source: www.openthemagazine.com  A Mesopotamian clay tablet with debt details from around 3000 BCE  5  1 November 2017  Collegium generale | Fritz Zurbrügg | © Swiss National Bank  Loans fulfil two basic functions  Borrowers:  Loans enable borrowers to have future income at their disposal now Example: Start-up company Example: Buying a house Example: Government debt  Creditors:  Loans allow creditors to make optimal use of their available capital Example: Investments of an entrepreneur  6  1 November 2017  Collegium generale | Fritz Zurbrügg | © Swiss National Bank  Part 2: Under what circumstances is lending detrimental to an economy?
Øystein Olsen: Management of the Government Pension Fund Global Introductory statement by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the hearing before the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs of the Storting (Norwegian parliament), Oslo, 25 April 2019. * * * Please note that the text below may differ from the actual address. The Government Pension Fund Global and the fiscal rule have long been important pillars of economic policy in Norway. Substantial portions of government petroleum revenues have been transferred to the GPFG. The resulting capital has been broadly spread across equities, bonds and real estate and has provided good returns and well-diversified risk. According to the annual report on the management of the GPFG, total return before management costs came to –6.1 percent in 2018. The return on the GPFG in 2018 was the second lowest since 1998. The equity portion has increased over time, and the return on equities now has a greater impact on total return than earlier. The negative return reflects the sharp decline in equity markets towards the end of 2018. The investments in GPFG have a long time horizon. The annual return over the 1998–2018 period was 5.5 percent. The annual net real return, ie adjusted for inflation and net of management costs, came to 3.6 percent in the same period. Norges Bank manages the GPFG with the objective of achieving the highest possible return over time, within the mandate defined by the Ministry of Finance.

At times, we adjust our purchases when certain market functioning indicators suggest that particular securities are less readily available for settlement relative to other securities.11 As it has always done, the Desk closely monitors how its activities impact financial market functioning. Good market functioning is integral for the successful implementation of the FOMC’s directive and for the effective transmission of monetary policy to the real economy. When evaluating market functioning, we consider measures of market activity, such as trading volumes, bid-ask spreads, trade sizes, quote sizes, financing costs, and settlement fails, as well as other indicators. We also monitor the performance of our operations (for example, the prices at which we can execute in comparison to prevailing market quotes or the total amount of competitively priced propositions), the concentration of market participants’ holdings in securities with certain characteristics, the extent and concentration of dealer participation in operations, and the pace of settlement of our MBS purchases. Based on these types of measures, purchases of both Treasury securities and MBS have gone smoothly so far, and market liquidity seems to be holding up well. In addition to this monitoring, we have developed active policies to help prevent market dysfunction as a result of our operations. In the Treasury market, the Desk ceases purchases of a specific security once SOMA holdings of that security reach 70 percent of the outstanding stock.
You will discuss it extensively today in two panels, moderated by Wim Boonstra and Servaas Deroose. I am looking forward to listening to your views on the matter. However, I would briefly refer to three ideas. First of all, the NBR’s approach to euro adoption is a balanced one. On the one hand, we are fully aware that a higher degree of real convergence is needed – at least 70–75 percent of the Eurozone average in terms of GDP per capita at PPP. Otherwise, we would be insufficiently developed and, therefore, vulnerable to asymmetric shocks and unable to synchronise our business cycle with that of other euro area economies. On the other hand, however, a high enough level does not mean that we are so ambitious as to aim for a convergence level of 90% of the Eurozone average or a level equal to that of Germany (as is the case with certain approaches in Hungary or Poland). And, equally important, regardless of how high one sets its targets, it is essential to preserve the pace of this process: once steps forward have been made, we may not stop or go back. In order to successfully adopt the euro, one should be a marathoner rather than a sprinter. I would like to say that the Latin saying festina lente is perfectly suitable in the case of the NBR’s approach: hurrying in a slow manner on the convergence path means achieving a sustainable pace in the medium and long run.

Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: The importance of savings for investment growth Speech by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, on the occasion of the World Savings Day - celebration of the Macedonian Banking Association, Skopje, 30 October 2018. * * * Dear Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great honor and pleasure for me to address you at today's event marking the World Savings Day - a day that banks and financial institutions around the world dedicate to promoting saving and raising awareness of the public about the benefits it brings. The saving is undoubtedly important from the aspect of both, individual and overall economic progress and maintenance of the macro financial stability. For each individual, or family, it is the principal and the most important step towards providing financial stability in a long run. By saving, we protect ourselves from unpredictable changes in the personal income dynamics, we more efficiently plan the longterm investments and we build sound foundations for maintaining stable finances throughout the lifetime. Saving is also beneficial for the entire society, as it is one of the key factors which the economy’s investment level depends on, which is a prerequisite for boosting the long-term economic potential. Usually, a significant portion of the savings is channeled into the banking system thus providing stable sources of financing to domestic banks, which is particularly important for the bank-centric financial systems, such as the Macedonian one, where the banks act as major financial intermediaries.
This has resulted in more active and engaged philanthropy in Asia, leading to an increased demand for more philanthropy-related advisory services by wealthy individuals and families. More of the rich are incorporating philanthropy into their wealth management plans and want professional advice in their philanthropic commitments. As a result, Asia is seeing the growth of professional and institutionalized philanthropy foundations. China alone now has an estimated 900 philanthropic entities. Key challenges remain 12. However, there remain challenges to giving in Asia, mainly because philanthropy is developing at varying stages across Asia, in line with the progress of Asian countries. There are two key issues which donors face: the nascent charity infrastructure to support donors, and weak governance practices by fund recipients. 13. In Asia, there are many causes that need championing, and many problems that need addressing. Donors planning to give in Asia have to first understand the needs of the region, decide on the cause they intend to support, identify the worthy projects, and navigate the giving procedures in each country. 14. The success of giving greatly depends on both the giver and the receiver. Clearly, throwing money at charities does not guarantee success of giving. There needs to be followthrough on the charity’s part to ensure that the money is channelled successfully to the cause. 15. The reality in Asia is that many of the domestic charities are small, and are not equipped to handle large amounts of funds efficiently and accountably.

Øystein Olsen: The role of monetary policy revisited – welcome address Welcome address by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the Norges Bank conference “The role of monetary policy revisited”, Oslo, 26 September 2013. *  *  *  It is a great honour and pleasure for me to welcome you all to this Norges Bank conference: The role of monetary policy revisited. In his famous 1967 presidential address before the American Economic Association, Milton Friedman set out to answer three interrelated questions. What should be the role of monetary policy? What can it contribute to achieving the major goals of economic policy? And how should it be conducted to contribute the most? Five years after the onset of the global financial crisis, these questions are yet again at the forefront of our minds. The crisis and subsequent recession have presented substantial challenges to monetary policy. Central banks have responded with great activism and have resorted to unconventional policies such as quantitative easing and an increasing use of forward guidance. And the crisis has led to a review of monetary policy frameworks. Successful as monetary policy has been in safeguarding low and stable inflation, many argue that it should take risks to financial stability into account. Moreover, a new set of macroprudential policy tools has been proposed to address systemic risks in financial markets directly. In Norway, inflation targeting was introduced in 2001.
We also project that during the first half of 2017 inflation will hit 3 percent and will remain in the neighborhood from then onwards (figure 5). It should be noted that private inflation expectations are consistent with this scenario, assuming that it will stand somewhat above 3 percent in one year and at 3 percent in two years. One important thing that distinguishes Chile from other economies, is that this process 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  where inflation has remained high for quite some time has not driven inflation expectations away from the policy target, which attests to the credibility of the Chilean monetary policy (figure 6). In line with earlier Reports, inflation remaining high for almost two years responds largely to the direct and indirect effects of the exchange rate depreciation, in a context where past inflation indexation and tight capacity gaps have kept non-tradable inflation at a high level. In the baseline scenario, core inflation will converge to near its historic average by mid-2017. This process will be largely determined by the fact that, beyond the usual volatility, no further depreciations are expected of the magnitude seen in recent years. It is worth saying that, with significant fluctuations, the peso/dollar parity has dropped since December and, at the statistical cutoff date of the Report, it was near its levels of August 2015.

Denis Beau: What financial sovereignty in a digital world? Morning closing keynote speech by Mr Denis Beau, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of France, at the 8th Annual Meetings of France Payments Forum, Paris, 3 March 2020. * * * We now live in an increasingly digital world, in which technical progress makes it possible to market new goods and services that claim to simplify and enrich our lives. In the area of finance, like elsewhere, innovation seems to have followed a historical process rendering it practically invisible: As St Exupéry writes in Wind, Sand and Stars “Thus, precisely because it is perfect the machine dissembles its own existence”. Behind this apparent simplification, however, lies a profound change in financial activities, their ecosystem and their international integration. This change raises many challenges for our national and European sovereignty, which fundamentally means our ability to preserve and impose our collective choices in terms of stability, efficiency and fairness of the financial system. As a central banker and supervisor, I serve an institution that has been mandated by the legislator to help enforce these choices by ensuring the stability of the financial system, especially in the area of payment systems and means of payment, which is the subject of this conference, as well as their security and smooth functioning. These escalating challenges to our sovereignty are therefore something I cannot ignore.
Phase 2a: The acute phase of the coronavirus crisis – broader purchases of securities for continued market functioning On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced that Covid19 would be considered a pandemic. Many were, of course, concerned about health risks, but many were also concerned about how the economy would be affected. International economic prospects weakened rapidly. Many economies closed down almost completely and service sectors in particular were hit hard. It was very uncertain how long the pandemic would last and how households and companies would get through it. In this situation, both central banks and other authorities reacted quickly, and comprehensive support packages were presented. The aim was often to facilitate the overwintering of companies so that their operations could be restarted once the economies had reopened. The Riksbank saw a risk that the great uncertainty would mean that households and companies would encounter ever higher interest rates on their loans and that this would impair their ability to cope with the pandemic. In March and early April 2020, this risk was reflected in, among other things, the fact that interest rates on mortgage and corporate bonds began to rise rapidly and that the markets for these bonds were functioning poorly. The risk was therefore that concern over weak economic developments with more and more payment defaults would be self-fulfilling through a vicious circle, where rising risk premiums lead to ever-increasing problems and even higher interest rates.

In  particular, any situation should be avoided whereby for a prolonged period of time an NCB’s net equity is below the level of its statutory capital or is even negative” (ECB 2022, Section 2.2). 22 [30]  Figure 13. Central banks’ balance sheet totals Per cent of GDP  Note. GDP is calculated as the sum of the present quarter and the three previous quarters. For any quarter(s) that GDP has not yet been published, the most recently published GDP statistics are used. Sources: Eurostat, Japanese Cabinet Office, Statistics Sweden, Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, U.K. Office for National Statistics, US Bureau of Economic analysis, respective central bank and the Riksbank. It is difficult to compare the accounts of different central banks because different accounting principles are applied in different countries. Many of the other central banks use accounting principles that mean that changes in value have a slower impact on reported earnings. The increase in interest rates this year will thus be reflected directly in the Riksbank’s annual accounts, but will be spread over many years for some other central banks. Moreover, some central banks, such as the Bank of England, have an agreement with their government that the effects on the results of asset purchases should be entered in the government budget, without affecting the performance of the central bank.43 Nordström and Vredin (2022) nevertheless attempt an overview of the effects on the results of the central banks’ monetary policy motivated holdings.
We made this explicit in November 2020 when announcing our most recent £ programme of QE purchases, which we consciously decided to continue for an unusually long period through to “around the end of 2021”: we said in our Minutes that “risk management considerations implied that policy should lean strongly against downside risks to the outlook.” That purchase programme is still under way, with over £ of purchases completed as of today. 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  4  For the same reason we gave forward guidance in November that we “did not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there was clear evidence that significant progress was being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.” And we highlighted the asymmetry in our assessment of the risks to activity and inflation by noting that “if the outlook for inflation weakened, the Committee stood ready to take whatever additional action was necessary to achieve its remit”. Figure 2: The MPC’s May MPR forecasts  5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  5  Our latest forecast, published in our May 2021 MPR and shown in Figure 2, represented a further evolution of our view of the outlook. The economic news since our February 2021 Report had been substantially positive. Activity had been stronger than expected and Covid restrictions had been eased slightly earlier than expected, partly due to the success of the vaccination programme in the UK.

In 1995, the monetary strategy of stable exchange rate of the denar was formalized – a strategy for which then and now there is a broad consensus that it is one of the key pillars of the stability of the Macedonian economy. The benefits of macroeconomic stability have been enjoyed for 24 years. Our economy is small, commercial and financially open and hence, prone to external shocks. Despite the numerous external and internal shocks, the National Bank constantly succeeds to keep inflation at a moderate level, which is similar to the European level. Low inflation is extremely important for the protection of the real purchasing power of citizens, but also for maintaining the competitiveness of our exports without which small economies like ours can not achieve higher and sustainable growth. The maintenance of low and stable inflation, as the main goal of the central bank, is underpinned by the stable exchange rate of the domestic currency against the euro. The prudent monetary policy, as well as the good coordination with other macroeconomic policies, led to an almost continuous growth of the foreign reserves, which today are at the highest historical level and directly strengthen the exchange rate stability. Confirmation of the soundness of the policies implemented by the National Bank is a historic step in providing access to European Central Bank’s foreign exchange liquidity. The key to the successful attainment of the goals of the National Bank so far is its strong institutional capacity which has been built for years.