samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But the controls affect the exchange rate of the króna and should do so. By all available measures and in international comparison, the króna has fluctuated less since the controls were imposed than it did over a long period prior to the banking and currency crisis. I have discussed recent economic developments and conditions, but what about the outlook? According to the Bank’s February forecast, output growth is expected to measure 2½% in 2012 and roughly the same in the following two years. If this forecast materialises, unemployment will decline gradually over the period, to about 5% in 2014, by which time the slack in the economy is expected to have disappeared. An underlying current account surplus is expected throughout the forecast horizon. According to the forecast, inflation will subside over the course of 2012, approaching the target in 2013 and aligning with it in 2014. These projections are dependent on a number of factors, however, specifically the exchange rate, which is currently below the levels assumed in the forecast. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  As so often before, the economic outlook is uncertain, not least because of the global situation. The most recent indicators of private consumption and economic activity in the first quarter are broadly in line with the forecast, and perhaps a bit better. On the other hand, the short-term inflation outlook has deteriorated, and it could take a longer time than previously expected to bring inflation back to target unless the króna appreciates in coming months.

It will also be necessary to impose tight restrictions on foreign-denominated lending to households and businesses without corresponding foreign currency-linked income. But these restrictions are prudential rules rather than capital controls. The Central Bank sent the Minister of Economic  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Affairs a report on this topic at the end of 2010 and intends to send him a more in-depth report on the same subject shortly after Easter. Looking ahead to the next several years, the question is not whether we lift the controls, but how. This is not the time or place to go into that topic in detail, as it has been discussed recently in some depth by the Bank and its representatives, and that discussion will presumably continue. The main point is that carefully preparing the liberalisation process, as is currently being done, significantly reduces the risk to financial and economic stability. Progress has been made in this area, and a great deal more can be done in the near future. There is quite a bit at stake: the short-term benefits conferred by the capital controls could be lost at the eleventh hour and several years of long-term benefits of free capital movements could be burned up if liberalisation is carried out recklessly.
Elvira Nabiullina: Structural reform, banking system challenges and global developments affecting the Russian financial system Statement by Ms Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Bank of Russia, at the 25th International Financial Congress, Moscow, 30 June 2016. *  *  *  Good afternoon, distinguished colleagues! This year we are hosting the 25th jubilee forum and at the same time the first one. We have changed its name, i.e., the banking congress became the financial one, and expanded the range of discussed topics in intention to embrace all the sectors of the financial market. On the one hand, this transformation was about to happen since the central bank functions as a mega-regulator and we are seeking to have a constructive dialogue with all the sectors of the financial market. On the other hand, this is a reflection of the global trend: the nonbank financial sector starts playing an ever greater part in global markets and regulation of this sector draws ever more attention from regulators throughout the world to minimise risks and ensure its stable development. Financial stability is coming to the fore in central bank policies. As you might remember, The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb enjoyed popularity a few years ago. It should be noted that despite the fact that there are a great number of world experts and analysts studying the situation and possible risks, the ‘black swans’ are not uncommon in the financial markets.

Expectations may be more solidly anchored, which would lessen the impact of the output gap on current inflation. It is also possible that, as a result of structural reforms, the NAIRU has decreased in many countries in recent years, thus giving the "optical" impression of a horizontal Phillips curve during this period. In a broader sense, globalisation itself may also be responsible for the flattening of the Phillips curve. In an open economy, domestic demand changes can easily be satisfied through increased imports. As a consequence, domestic inflation may become less sensitive to the domestic output gap and more sensitive to global tensions on production capacities. Overall, these developments have made it easier for central banks to bring down inflation without real costs to the economy. But it is clear, today, that these effects are being reversed. The prices of oil, food and other commodities are now increasing fast. There might be three reasons for this rise (the importance of which is currently hotly debated): first a supplydemand imbalance; second, the emergence of commodities as an asset class, attracting substantial flows into commodity funds; and, finally, the use of commodities as a hedge against inflation or dollar depreciation. In addition, while labour supply in emerging countries will remain abundant, it is not all that clear that it will remain cheap. Indeed, we are currently seeing an increase in export prices in emerging countries, which translates into higher import prices for developed economies. In short, the world environment has become very inflationary.
Important progress is also being made at the operational and business levels. The most notable example mentioned by many today is T2S, a project with huge potential for market integration. T2S will enable the participating CSDs to focus on value-added services while the basic settlement service is provided via the single T2S platform. T2S will thereby make it easier for business to move from one CSD to another. The actors that harmonise in T2S have a greater chance of reaping the full benefits of T2S and widening their business. Conversely, the European CSDs that do not harmonise may see the securities issued via their CSD being settled predominantly in another CSD participating in T2S. An area of opportunities mentioned several times by speakers today is collateral management. Some of the regulatory initiatives I mentioned before, aiming to enhance safety in financial markets, are generating greater demand for high-quality collateral. At the same time, the crisis is making this collateral scarcer: there has been a shift from unsecured to secured funding and greater recourse to central bank liquidity. The increased demand for collateral is prompting market participants as well as the Eurosystem to develop innovative ways to make better use of existing collateral, i.e. to make assets more easily available, when and where they are needed. Harmonisation in this area is crucial to facilitate the efficient mobilisation of collateral across Europe. Examples are the auto-collateralisation functionality that will be offered by the T2S platform and the several initiatives underway to establish tri-party settlement interoperability.

The development of this market in Hong Kong is a story very familiar to you, so let me focus my remarks on three specific questions which I am often asked. First, is the RMB liquidity pool in Hong Kong big enough? Over the past year or so, the growth of RMB customer deposits has turned modest. On occasions there have even been month-on-month declines. Some commentators have seen this as a sign that the RMB liquidity pool in Hong Kong is beginning to plateau and might not be able to support future RMB bond issuances and other financial activities. Frankly, I think this should not be a cause for concern. One needs to recognise that the level of RMB customer deposits is a useful but incomplete measure of RMB liquidity. For instance, banks have been increasingly issuing RMB certificates of deposits as a means to tap RMB funds. Taking RMB customer deposits and certificates of deposits together, these added up  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  to 700 billion yuan at the end of July 2012, with a modest 5% increase from the end of 2011. In other words, the RMB deposit pool has remained largely stable, at a time when we are seeing very vibrant RMB dim-sum bond issuances and expansion in other RMB financing and investment activities. This is a healthy sign that market forces are balancing supply and demand, and that the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong is maturing.
Such limits need to be fundamentally re-evaluated. We have sleepwalked into a world in which leverage of 20 or 30 times capital is the rule rather than the exception. Now is a good time to wake up. Evidence from the not-too-distant past suggests there may be less to fear  BIS Review 139/2009  7  from materially higher capital ratios – say, a multiple of current ratios – than some would suggest (Chart 2). •  Recalibrating risk weights: With hindsight, the capital assigned to certain categories of high-risk and off balance sheet transactions by Basel rules was far too low. Those mis-calibrations were then arbitraged by the banks in ways which included inflated trading books and an over-expansion into high-risk loans and securitised assets. The Basel Committee has already set about trying to correct some of the more obvious of these defects. For example, materially higher risk weights are set to be introduced for trading book assets from the end of 2010. This will include, importantly, securitised and re-securitised products, whose payoffs profiles too closely resembled deep out-of-the-money options (Figure 3). New risk weights should better reflect the tail risk these products embody. These reforms will close a regulatory loophole and thereby lower the beta of, and hence systematic risk in, the banking system. They leave open some rather more fundamental questions, which the Basel Committee are also considering. These include whether the distinction between banking and trading books, and the resecuritisation of assets, are necessary in the first place.

Higher leverage boosts required returns on equity because it simultaneously makes the banking system’s balance sheet more fragile. There is unlikely to be a better case study of these dynamics at play than events over the past decade. So how has the state’s safety net evolved in response? The element of the safety net with the longest historical pedigree is liquidity insurance, typically provided by the central bank in the form of last resort lending. The principles behind last resort lending were first articulated by Henry Thornton at the beginning of the 19th century and were subsequently elaborated by Walter Bagehot. 6 Last resort lending in practice was often rather less elegant than the theory. Writing at the time of the 1825 banking crisis, Jeremiah Harman, Director of the Bank, described it thus: “We lent [money] by every possible means and in modes we have never adopted before; we took in stock on security, we purchased Exchequer bills, we made advances on Exchequer bills, we not only discounted outright, but we made advances on the deposit of bills of exchange to an immense amount, in short, by every possible means consistent with the safety of the Bank…Seeing the dreadful state in which the public were, we rendered every assistance in our power.” 7 Chart 5 plots the Bank of England’s balance sheet in relation to GDP since 1830.
24/11/2020  Shifting tides in euro area money markets: from the global financial crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic  SPEECH  Shifting tides in euro area money markets: from the global financial crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic         Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets, 23 November 2020 Frankfurt am Main, 23 November 2020 I would like to welcome you warmly to our virtual ECB Conference on Money Markets. [1] This conference offers an excellent platform to facilitate the exchange between academic experts on money markets and policy makers. The conference papers address some of the most topical research questions with respect to money markets and will thus provide valuable input for the implementation of our monetary policy. Money markets are a cornerstone of the financial system. [2] Banks, non-bank financial institutions[3] and non-financial corporations all rely on money markets for their short-term funding, liquidity management and collateral needs. As a result, dislocations in money markets can severely undermine the stability of our financial system. Due to their central role as a source of short-term funding, money markets are also crucial for the implementation and transmission of our monetary policy. Money market rates serve as operational targets for central banks and also as benchmarks for the pricing of credit, thereby directly affecting financing conditions in the real economy.

First, the availability of collateral in secured markets will remain decisive for market functioning, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing central bank asset purchases, even if collateral scarcity is mitigated by the broad fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, a high level of excess liquidity may further reduce cash-driven activity in some market segments, potentially raising challenges for setting money market benchmark rates. And third, non-bank financial institutions play an increasingly important role in money markets. Their market activity has a bearing on the formation of some money market rates, including the € Unlike banks, these market participants often do not have access to central bank operations. Were the transmission across money market rates to weaken, or rates to decouple from policy intentions, this could have implications for monetary policy implementation in the future. Understanding the changing forces that affect money market activity is essential for policy makers. To foster an improved understanding of recent trends in money markets, this conference brings together some of the best academics, central bankers and practitioners. I look forward to many insightful discussions over the next two days. Thank you very much for your attention. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp201123~8d9573b1b1.en.html  5/7  24/11/2020  Shifting tides in euro area money markets: from the global financial crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic  [1] I would like to thank Marie Hoerova for her contributions to this speech.
Paul Tucker: Monetary strategy and prospects Speech by Mr Paul Tucker, Deputy Governor Financial Stability at the Bank of England, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Member of the Financial Policy Committee and Member of the Prudential Regulation Authority Board, at the Association for Financial Markets in Europe flagship conference on “Financing growth”, London, 24 September 2013. *  *  *  Around the western world monetary policy is at a critical juncture. As differences in the relative pace of recovery in different economies become apparent, each central bank is having to articulate how it sees the particular conditions it faces. Contrast that with early 2009, when we were all simply priming the monetary pumps to prevent our economies slipping into depression and deflation. Indeed, contrast it with 2011 and 2012 when, again, central banks acted more or less in unison to contain, as best we could, the spillovers from the crisis in the euro area periphery. Today, although normality is hardly restored, we are back to circumstances where differences in local economic conditions matter to domestic monetary prospects and to exchange rates. The big policy trade off In the UK, the core challenge lies in balancing two medium-term risks – to the economy’s productive capacity and to price stability.1 Concretely, the longer the weakness in activity, the greater the erosion of the economy’s capital resources and the damage to the skills and capabilities of our labour force.

Resilience: three lessons from the financial crisis1 Speech given by Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets & Banking  Inverness Chamber of Commerce 30 May 2019  1  With thanks to Tom Smith for his assistance in preparing these remarks and to staff across Bank, including Alex Baiden from the Bank’s Advanced Analytics division and Nick Bate and Liam Crowley-Reidy from the Bank’s Monetary Analysis directorate, for their many contributions, as well as my colleagues on the MPC for their helpful comments and suggestions. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  1 Introduction It’s great to be here in Inverness, and to be speaking here this morning. My talk today is going to focus on resilience. The first definition of resilience thrown up by Google is “the capacity to recover quickly from difficulties; toughness”. It seems apt that I should be focusing on this here in Inverness as Scotland itself is a famously resilient nation. Robert the Bruce was taught resilience by a spider. Scotland’s mountains epitomise geological resilience and tests the physical resilience of walkers and climbers. The Scottish economy has been through some tough times, but proved relatively resilient during the financial crisis, with Scottish onshore GDP falling much less than overall UK GDP. Even the existence of the Loch Ness monster has proved resilient to continued scientific investigation. And resilience is a word that you hear a lot these days (Chart 1). Psychological resilience is lauded as a virtue as life becomes more complex and challenging.
8  BIS Review 148/2010  During the quarter under review, production of clear beer by the monitored company increased by 26.7% to 223,607 hectolitres from 176,515 hectolitres the previous quarter Further, this output was 45.9% higher than the 153,220 hectolitres produced in the corresponding quarter of 2009. Output of soft drinks by the monitored company rose by 1.8% to 127,244.0 hectolitres from 124,944.0 hectolitres produced in the previous quarter. Moreover, this output level was 38.3% higher than 91,968.0 hectolitres produced in the corresponding quarter of 2009. Production of milk by the monitored company during the quarter under review rose by 4.2% to 7,830,878 litres from 7,510,227 litres produced in the second quarter of this year. However, this output was 1.2% lower than 7,924,054.0 litres of milk produced during the corresponding quarter of 2009. Tourism During the quarter under review, international arrivals at the country’s four international airports 8 were 124,244 passengers compared with 105,163 passengers in the second quarter of 2010. This was 20.7% higher than 102,918 passengers recorded during the same quarter in 2009. Livingstone and Mfuwe international airports, which are the major tourist destinations, accounted for 21,272 passengers and 241 passengers compared with 18,180 passengers and 269 passengers in the previous quarter, respectively. During the third quarter of 2010, tourist entries into the country’s national parks 9 were 25,244 compared with 13,737 in the previous quarter. Nevertheless, this was lower than 26,720 in the corresponding quarter of 2009.

BIS Review 148/2010  1  Total domestic credit, comprehensively defined to include foreign currency loans, increased by 3.1% at end-September 2010 compared with 10.1% growth registered in the second quarter of 2010. This was mainly due to a 4.4% rise in net claims on central government. Similarly, lending to the private sector (including public enterprises) grew by 2.2%. On an annual basis, domestic credit growth at 13.5% in September 2010 was 10.1 percentage points lower than the 23.6% recorded in June 2010. This largely reflected a slowdown in credit to the private sector, including public enterprises to 0.7% compared with the 25.9% growth recorded in June 2010. However, lending to the government increased by 41.7% from 108.9% in June 2010. On a sectoral basis, households (personal loans category) continued to account for the largest share of outstanding credit, accounting for 26.3% (26.2%) 1 in September 2010. The agricultural sector was second at 17.1% (18.5%), followed by manufacturing 13.4% (13.0%), wholesale and retail trade, 12.0% (11.7%), transport, storage and communications, 5.3% (5.4%) and real estate, 5.4% (5.2%). Interest rates Demand for Government securities remained strong although it was relatively lower during the quarter under review. Therefore, yield rates trended higher across all tenors. In the Treasury bills market, the composite weighted average yield rate increased by 2.5 percentage points to an average of 7.4% from 4.9% recorded in the second quarter.
W A Wijewardena: Sustainable socio-economic security – some lessons from the experiences of Sri Lanka Speech by Mr W A Wijewardena, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at the International Conference on “Universalizing Socio-economic Security in South Asia”, organized by The Institute of Social Studies (ISS), The Hague, and the Institute for Human Development (IHD), New Delhi, 17-20 February 2008. This paper is based on the personal experiences of the writer as Director of Small Farmers and the Landless Credit Project, dubbed in Sinhala as “Isuru Project”, when he was the Director of Rural Credit of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka from 1993 to 2000 and Deputy Governor in charge of this portfolio since then. The credit for the achievements of Isuru Project is shared equally by all the stakeholders involved in the Project. The views expressed in the paper are those of the writer and should not be construed as those of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. *  *  *  Introduction History is abundant with numerous initiatives taken by mankind, both through state action and personal enterprise, to ensure socio-economic security, or in layman’s language, opportunity for all the people to enjoy the benefits of economic prosperity without discrimination or reservation. In ancient times in Sri Lanka, the kings took it upon themselves the responsibility for creating such a society which was considered as a just society 1 .

Actions by governments to restore stability Across the whole euro area, governments are making determined efforts to reverse economic imbalances. They are implementing reforms to redress the misguided policies of the past and to create sustainable long-term growth. It is a difficult road and there is still a long way to go. But the early signs are encouraging. Fiscal consolidation is progressing well in most countries. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the euro area’s primary budget will be almost in balance this year. By comparison, Japan will have a primary deficit of 9% of GDP, the United States 6.5% and the UK more than 5%. We are also seeing some noteworthy improvements in competitiveness. Price competitiveness has improved significantly in several euro area countries. And current account deficits are falling. For example, the countries under full EU-IMF programmes have seen their unit labour costs improve by more than 10% since 2008, relative to the euro area average. Their current accounts have improved by around 8% of GDP since then. Governments have also taken measures to strengthen the rules and institutions that guide economic policies in the euro area. This is important to ensure that the positive developments do not simply reverse when economic conditions improve and markets stabilise. One notable example is the new fiscal compact, which will provide a strong tool for keeping budgets close to balance in the future. Governments have also set up a new framework to prevent and correct unsustainable developments in the private sector.