samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As the fed funds chart shows, market expectations for monetary policy are very sensitive to changes in the economic setting – consider the shifts in the shape of the federal funds over time. Thank you for your attention. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  23  BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  14  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  15  16  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  17  18  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  19  20  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  21

Encik Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid: Prevention of corruption in project management Opening remarks by Mr Encik Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) Talk entitled "Prevention of Corruption in Project Management", Kuala Lumpur, 3 April 2017. * * * It is my great honour and pleasure to welcome officers from the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), particularly the speaker for today, Assistant Commissioner Mr Mohan Munusamy. A warm welcome is also extended to the project teams comprising the steering committees, contractors and consultants. My appreciation also goes to all my fellow Bank staff who are here today. In more recent times, the Bank and MACC have collaborated on a number of fronts. The recent strategic cooperation between the Bank and MACC, together with LHDN to combat financial crime, particularly corruption, signifies our commitment to work together in this area. From the Bank’s perspective, this demonstrates our effort to instil integrity for and beyond our regulatees in the financial market. Integrity is taken very seriously at the Bank where we continually and consciously maintain the highest standards, given that we enforce these standards on our regulatees in our supervisory capacity. We proactively manage integrity hazards and corruption risks and tackle those risks pre-emptively. Corruption is not simply a crime on its own. Its consequences can be far-reaching in terms of economic losses and irreparable reputation damage. Thus, we must actively keep abreast of the management of integrity risks.
This has now begun to appear at the retail level in prices of goods that rely on computer chips – computers themselves (obviously) but also audio-visual goods and new cars (Chart 13 plots their average inflation rates  8  In late March, a large container ship (the Ever Given, a quarter of a mile long) was buffeted by strong winds and ended up wedged across the width of the canal. It took six days to dislodge the vessel and re-open the canal. A useful summary of the problems in shipping supply in general can be found here: “Global shipping container shortage: the story so far”, Ship Technology, 29 April 2021. 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  10  in the US and UK). The resulting problems and delays in car production have had knock-on effects on prices of second-hand vehicles, especially in the US. Chart 13: Prices of goods that use computer chips have risen sharply in the US and UK  Sources: ONS, BEA and Bank calculations. Chart based on Goldman Sachs (2021, see footnote 6). 12m inflation rates for semiconductor-intensive spending categories: audio-visual goods, photographic/optical equipment, computers, household appliances and new cars. Excludes new cars before 2011; earlier data rescaled for comparability. Wholesale goods-price inflation likely to soften in time For how long might this continue?

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, a major producer, said last week that its own production had risen 30% in the first half of 2021, relative to the same period a year earlier, and that it expects full year growth of 60% (in response to what have been much milder price rises I think this counts as relatively “elastic” supply). The Chief Executive of the company said “we expect the shortage to be greatly reduced for TSMC customers starting this quarter”.10  One would expect this to take some of the heat out of semiconductor prices, and those of the goods that rely on them. As for shipping, which has affected the time and cost required for all international goods trade, expectations of future prices, as indicated by forward contracts (Chart 15), imply material declines over the next year or so. See, for example Winkelried (2021), ‘Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set’. Journal of Commodity Markets, article in press. 10 See “TSMC signals global chip crunch may be easing”, Financial Times, 15 July 2021. 9  12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  12  Chart 15: Forward contracts suggest material declines in shipping costs  Sources: Baltic Exchange and Bank calculations. Panamax is a sub-index covering mid-sized vessels travelling on 5 of the 23 shipping routes of the full index. It co-moves quite closely with the overall Baltic Exchange Dry Index.
While the rapid emergence of the "new economy" bubble in 1999 and early 2000, followed by a series of sharp corrections, illustrated once again the potential of modern financial markets, e.g. to finance technological innovation, it also demonstrated their tendency to over-react, moving from excessive optimism to disproportionate pessimism, with the ensuing negative consequences for the behaviour of firms and households. We should be very attentive to these boom-bust episodes on financial asset markets, since they can affect the monetary and financial stability of the world economy. I would like to discuss two issues here: -  First, some factors encouraging excessively homogeneous market behaviour may hinder a smooth and efficient functioning of the markets, and  -  Second, ways of fostering more diverse behaviour on the markets should be considered. 4  BIS Review 49/2001  2.1  Some factors encouraging excessively homogeneous market behaviour may hinder a smooth and efficient functioning of the markets  Financial asset prices fluctuate widely and sometimes deviate from economic fundamentals for long periods of time. Several factors are in play when this happens. I shall give a few examples. -  Some market participants have become more inclined to engage in "short-termism", that is, they are too preoccupied with their short-term results. This trend might result, in particular, from growing pressure to yield immediate financial results that are not necessarily sustainable. -  Mimetic behaviour is by no means a new phenomenon on financial markets.

So when one emerging economy encounters difficulties, all neighbouring countries, or countries that share common characteristics, are treated in the same way – regardless of their actual economic and financial situation. The same applies to businesses operating in the same economic sector. Transparency has substantially increased since the Asian crisis thanks to a solid global consensus – let us continue and reinforce these efforts-  BIS Review 49/2001  5  2.2.2  Take into account the medium and long-term perspective of some market participants:  -  Some investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, have to invest funds in order to enable their customers to build up wealth over the medium and long term, notably in preparation for retirement. Consequently, this type of investor are supposed to behave differently from traders and short-term investors, who are working on a very different time horizon. But at times it seems that they are all pushed to behave in much the same way, on the basis of an overwhelmingly dominant very short-term horizon. -  To preserve, and even restore, their specific investment approach, these particular investors might be more shielded from excessive short-term pressures. This objective raises considerable difficulties, because it touches on the way in which the performances of medium and long-term funds (including pension funds) and life insurance companies are assessed. 2.2.3  Diversify the risk management tools of financial institutions:  -  As I mentioned earlier, even the best techniques can have adverse effects.
And, as would be expected, that higher unemployment has been associated with a marked moderation in wage growth. Indeed, as shown in Chart 1, the relationship between wages and unemployment over the past three years looks pretty similar to what we experienced in the mid-90s when the unemployment rate was similar to what it is today. There is no strong evidence to suggest that the wage Phillips curve in the UK is flatter now than it was twenty years ago.6 If not in the labour market, is it possible that spare capacity within companies may be having less impact than usual on pricing decisions? Maybe, especially if cash-struck companies are less willing or able to cut their prices in order to utilise spare capacity and gain market share. But to the best we can tell from surveys measures and the intelligence gathered by our network of Agents, the current margin of spare capacity within companies is not particularly pronounced. So even if companies’ pricing strategies have become less sensitive to space capacity, this is unlikely to explain much of the recent stickiness in inflation. All told, I’m not particularly persuaded that the relationship between economic slack and cost and price pressures has become unusually weak. Wage growth has moderated broadly as expected given the rise in unemployment. And there does not appear to be a significant margin of spare capacity within companies. What is unusual is that the moderation in wage growth has not been reflected in a corresponding fall in domestic cost pressures.

In this regard, I would like to express my gratitude to the Financial Education Network and everyone involved in the FLM for their relentless efforts in elevating financial literacy. The reality is that as our lives become increasingly digital, criminals are also finding new and innovative ways to commit digital crimes, such as financial scams. Indeed, the issue of financial scams has become a global issue, not just unique to Malaysia. Criminals are using increasingly sophisticated methods to scam victims. This is a concerning trend which keeps many of us up at night. For Bank Negara Malaysia, our priority is to ensure that banking and payment channels remain safe and secure. Given that the tactics used by criminals will continue to evolve, we will, where necessary, issue new security advisories and additional security measures for banks to take from time to time. These include the five measures announced on 26 September to further strengthen the banks' controls and safeguards against financial scams. I am pleased to see that banks are giving their full commitment and making progress in implementing these measures. The government recently announced the establishment of the National Scam Response Centre or NSRC, a command centre to coordinate rapid response for online financial  1/2  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  scams. NSRC brings together resources and expertise from NFCC, PDRM, BNM, MCMC, financial institutions and the telecommunication industry to combat financial scams more quickly and effectively.
They only move the time-consistency issue one step back - the policy rule may be abandoned, the central banker fired, the contract reinterpreted or rewritten.3 The other approach says that real central bankers do not and need not worry about time-inconsistency; they “just do it”, (Bennett McCallum, 1995). Central bankers should simply resist the temptation to deviate from the time-inconsistent policy, and private agents will eventually come to accept that resolve. Attractive as such a solution may appear to central bankers, it fails to answer the challenge posed by the game-theoretic result of Kydland and Prescott. And it fails to explain why it is that some countries in some periods just do it and others do not. Central bankers who have the determination and strength of purpose to “take the punch bowl away just when the party is getting going”, in McChesney Martin’s memorable phrase, clearly have the “right stuff” - so why don’t they “just do it”? 4 A deeper explanation of how this problem can be overcome requires an analysis of what might be called the “technology of collective decisions”. Individual agents can make contracts because they believe that the legal system is external to both parties to the contract. But it is difficult to write contracts that commit future collective behaviour. Collectively, we can either meet our previous commitments or we can ignore them.

BIS Review 5/2004  9  Chart 5: Exchange rates and regime change in Iraq, Sep 2002-Dec 2003 Swiss $ 100  Cents  Saddam deposed by end June 03 a Saddam captured by end Dec 03 b  90 80  0 2 4  70  6  60  8  50  Swiss $ (rhs)  10  40  12  30  14  20  16  10  18  0 20 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Source: United Nations, Central Bank of Iraq, Tradesport Exchange Limited a Value in cents of a contract that paid 100 cents if Saddam is deposed by the end of June 2003, and 0 otherwise b Value in cents of a contract that paid 100 cents if Saddam was captured by the end of December 2002, and 0 otherwise  One futures contract paid out 100 cents if Saddam was deposed by the end of June 2003 and nothing otherwise. As the chance of Saddam’s regime being deposed (and the price of the future) rose, the Swiss dinar appreciated against the dollar. Later there was also a future that paid 100 cents if Saddam was captured by the end of December 2003, and nothing otherwise. As the chance of this happening (and the price of the future) fell last autumn, the Swiss dinar fell against the dollar. It has just risen again.
First, we will put together programmes which will not only develop depth in core competencies but also breadth across related functional capabilities. A successful career in finance today requires versatility across different areas, be it to offer comprehensive solutions to customers or manage risks holistically across multiple business lines. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Second, we will build expertise and capabilities to serve and operate not just in Singapore but in a pan-Asian financial market. With the surge of opportunities in Asia, those with the knowledge and skills to operate across regional markets will be in high demand. These are capabilities that we must consciously seek to build amongst our professionals. IBF does not operate in a vacuum but in the larger context of what it takes to develop and grow the financial sector – to create meaningful jobs for Singaporeans, support the needs of the economy, and serve the larger region. It is now my pleasure to welcome our Guest-of-Honour, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, to talk to us about this larger context. It is especially appropriate that DPM Tharman is doing this as he is himself an IBF Pioneer who, as IBF Chairman some 14 years ago, transformed IBF to set competency standards for the industry. DPM Tharman, please. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

Second, how can central banks more broadly balance between supporting financial innovation whilst ensuring financial system safety and soundness? Third, what can central banks collectively do to this end? In 1963, John F Kennedy famously said “Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” On that note, let me thank you again for being here and I wish you productive discussions in the Forum. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
However, the government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa took the bold decision to undertake both these missions, and the fiscal and monetary authorities had then to find innovative ways to support those missions, without placing the economy under undue risk or peril. As a response therefore, in late 2006, the Treasury and the Central Bank decided to open out a small portion of the Government Treasury bills and bonds to foreign investors. This was the first move to attract foreign investment into Government rupee paper, and it was naturally a fresh and exciting experience for both the Sri Lankan authorities as well as foreign investors. You may note that I said, “foreign investment”, and not “foreign direct investment” or FDI. That is because, in our view, what was vital was that “foreign investment” should be allowed to flow through convenient instruments to supplement the shortfall in savings and investments in our country’s economic structure, and such inflows need not necessarily have been only via FDI. The move resulted in new and quick inflows, and as a result, debt management became more dynamic and robust. It also provided a new tool to address the wide fluctuation of interest rates that was taking place in the country, prior to the move. This initiative of course necessitated close cooperation and follow up between the MoF and CB, particularly because it resulted in a significant infusion of forex into the country that needed to be properly managed from the point of view of the Central Bank.

Case Study 4: The creation of our present day “virtuous cycle” Mr. Chairman, I would like to now place before you, yet another significant example of harmonization between the Monetary and Fiscal policies, which led to the creation of a new “virtuous cycle” in relation to inflation, interest rates, investor confidence and sustained growth, in our country. As we are all aware, Sri Lanka had been long trapped in a “vicious cycle” of high fiscal deficits leading to high inflation; high inflation leading to high interest rates; high interest rates leading to low investor confidence; low investor confidence leading to sluggish investment; sluggish investment leading to low growth; low growth leading to high debt; and high debt once again leading to high fiscal deficits. This was the vicious cycle that we had been trapped, for more than 5 decades since independence. It is true that we have had one-off spurts of high growth or short periods of low inflation at various times in our history. However, we have to acknowledge that, other than in 2010 and 2011, we have never had over 8% growth in consecutive years, or, for that matter, been even able to record an average growth of over 5% over a 5 year period, prior to 2006! At the same time, other than the period February 2009, till now, Sri Lanka had never enjoyed a period of even two continuous years of single digit inflation, and, believe it or not, our level of average inflation was over 12% prior to that!
If you plot the share of electronic payments for a number of countries against the share of cash to GDP you get a broad measure of the cost efficiency of the different payment systems. The further to the northwest corner of such a diagram, the more automated the payment system is. According to these measures, the Swedish payment market seems to be performing very well, as are the payment markets in the other Nordic countries. Swedes, however, seem to be using more cash than other Nordic countries. The Swedish M0/GDP ratio lies 1-2 per centage points higher than the other Nordic countries. As cash and card payments are close substitutes - in fact the only alternatives available for transactions at the point of sale2 - we would expect that the more widespread use of cash in Sweden would be reflected in a lower use of card payments. Payments data support this. Swedes use more cash and make fewer card payments per capita than other Nordic citizens. Why do we observe these differences in the use of cash and the use of card payments in countries that otherwise have very similar payment systems? What variables influence the users’ choice of payment instruments? Given that users’ choice is sensitive to prices, the price that consumers face for the use of different payment instruments is one such important variable. Indeed, there is a growing body of evidence that the choice of payment instrument is influenced by pricing.

Marginal costs are usually difficult to compute, but can be approximated by estimates of variable costs. Data on variable costs and prices would in that case have been sufficient for the purpose of our study. There are, however, economies of scale in the production of payment services. Under these circumstances, it is consistent with efficient pricing to use a two-part tariff structure - transaction fees that cover variable costs and fixed fees that cover fixed costs. Thus we collected data on both fixed and variable fees and costs. However, in the comparison between prices and costs, we focused on the variable part. After having paid a certain annual fee for the provision of a bank account, Internet services, or a payment card, transaction fees are the fees most likely to affect the users’ day-to-day choice of payment instrument. We also collected data on transaction volumes for the different payment instruments. We used the banks’ transaction volumes as weights to compute costs and prices of a hypothetical average bank. As regards the relative cost efficiency of the different payment instruments, our cost estimates gave the expected results. Variable costs appear to decline as the degree of payment automation increases. Variable costs for electronic credit transfers are lower than for paper-based credit transfers. Transfers initiated at the bank branch-office are the most expensive to produce. A comparison of the relative cost efficiency of payment instruments used in transactions at the point of sale shows that debit card transactions have the lowest costs for the issuing bank.