samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Similar weakening has taken place in the euro area, the United States and the United Kingdom. 14 There are several explanations for this  13  See, for instance, Faust and Leeper (2015) and Hansson et al. (2018). 14 See, for instance, Cunliffe (2017). 9 [24]  development, even if there is no consensus in the literature regarding the underlying causes. Here I shall take up a possible reason that does not seem to have been given much attention in the general debate and may therefore be of interest. The first thing to note is that it is not surprising that the covariation, or, as we economists say, the correlation between economic variables varies over time. If we were to study two random economic variables over a longer period of time, it is probable that the covariation between them would vary between different points in time because the economy is constantly changing. For a central bank, however, it may nevertheless seem slightly worrying that it is the slope of the Phillips curve that has changed, as it has such a prominent role in monetary policy analysis. A common reasoning by a central bank might be: “We have seen an increase in unemployment recently. This has led to the labour market becoming less tight and to companies now being able to find new staff more easily – the competition for jobs has thus become greater. This dampens wage increases, which in turn pushes down prices.

We have urged French banks, in conjunction with the national institute of statutory auditors, the CNCC, to provide detailed disclosures of their subprime exposures. A joint working group made up of staff from the Commission Bancaire, the Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the French Banking Federation has defined best practices in this area. Institutions have started implementing them in a satisfactory manner and practices should be further improved in the financial statements for first-half 2008. In 2009, the Basel Committee is planning to publish recommendations on information to be disseminated under the requirements of Pillar 3 of Basel II. In-depth discussions with banks led to a convergence of practices for asset valuation, including the priority on relying on prices and directly observable market data. Where banks have had to use valuation models because liquid prices disappeared in some markets, the recommendations deal with consideration of all risks – including liquidity risk and counterparty risk – and the rigorousness of the process for determining such prices. With regard to adapting the Basel II requirements, we are also playing a very active role in the various international working groups led by the Basel Committee to give greater consideration, where necessary, to the capital requirements related to some liquidity lines or to the securitisation rules. Finally, the crisis has highlighted the need for banks to improve their analysis, measurement and management of liquidity risk.
Inflation targeting has proved to be particularly appropriate in very open small and medium-sized economies. Commodity exports play a particularly important role in several of the countries that were the first to introduce inflation targeting. Exchange rates fluctuate Over the past 10-15 years, many countries have made the transition from a fixed exchange rate regime to inflation targeting. In open economies with free capital movements, the exchange rate will be influenced by economic developments. The krone fluctuates. This is not surprising because other countries’ currencies also fluctuate. The krone exchange rate does not stand out as particularly unstable compared with other countries’ currencies. The krone exchange rate is the price of our currency measured in a foreign currency. Developments in other countries are just as important for the krone as developments in the Norwegian economy. Capital flows freely and flows can change rapidly. This can spill over to exchange rates and interest rates as well as output and employment. There is a cost involved for businesses in hedging against fluctuations in the krone. A krone that is stable - but too strong - also entails costs to the economy in the form of low activity. Similarly, a krone that is stable - but too weak - is a source of high inflation. Flexible inflation targeting The most important contribution monetary policy can make to sound economic developments in the long term is low and stable inflation. The inflation target provides an anchor for economic agents’ expectations concerning future inflation.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Switzerland - a financial centre in the heart of the euro area Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Belgian Financial Forum, Brussels, 16 February 2004. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  Switzerland is not a fortress. In relation to the rest of Europe in particular, it is an economy that is very much open to mutual exchanges - notably with regard to trade and finance. It is not by chance that Switzerland has become a major financial centre. This can be ascribed to a number of positive factors, including specialist knowledge, a long-established banking tradition, the quality of the financial infrastructure, and customers’ confidence in the soundness of the country’s financial institutions. Switzerland’s political stability, its high level of savings and the international standing of the Swiss franc have also enhanced the appeal of its financial system. Increasingly, however, Switzerland is not alone in offering such advantages. Moreover, the Swiss financial centre - like all the others - has to face the challenges of globalisation and the fight against financial crime. As banking secrecy does not afford any protection to funds of dubious origin, the Swiss authorities are able to combat money-laundering with a reasonable degree of efficacy. In this area, Switzerland has implemented measures that have received international recognition.
This strategic move speaks louder than words and confirms that there are enormous opportunities here, which the bank can benefit from, despite the stiff competition in the market. Ladies and Gentlemen, another issue that the Bank of Zambia continues to challenge commercial banks on, is the cost of borrowing which continues to be high in spite of the efforts by the Bank of Zambia and the Government in ensuring that these costs come down. As you are no doubt aware, the Bank of Zambia reduced the Statutory Reserve Ratios from 14% to 8% in October, 2007 with a primary aim of bringing the cost of borrowing down. Further, in the recent few years, the Bank had managed to contain inflation to low levels in order to further reduce the lending rates. Coupled with this, in the recent past, the Government adopted prudent fiscal policies that enabled the private sector to access more credit from the financial system. Despite these efforts, credit is still not affordable to the majority of our people. This high cost has in turn stifled the growth of the productive sector and in particular Agriculture and the SME sector, which are the engine for the economic growth of our country. Hon Minister, I am however, glad to note that credit to the private sector has increased significantly with the Personal loans category accounting for the largest beneficiary of credit followed by the Agriculture sector.

The government has decided to accelerate certain projects on which it will spend ISK 6 billion. Local authorities and other parties have announced measures aimed at the same objective. So it is clear that much has been done which can be expected to increase economic growth and reduce unemployment in the coming months. Ahead of us are the most extensive construction projects in Icelandic history, which will have a major impact on the economy in both the short and long term. They will require sound economic management. It is important to foresee early enough what effects this development could have if no  action were taken. It would be completely irresponsible to simply allow things to take their course as if nothing needed to be done to compensate for these developments, as has actually been proposed in some quarters recently. The Central Bank’s analysis of the proposed development indicates that, with appropriate economic management actions, it should be possible to maintain economic stability and keep inflation under control. The Central Bank of Iceland will do its utmost to achieve this, as it naturally bears an indisputable legal responsibility to do so.
The clinic offered an opportunity for attendees to receive one-on-one advice from several non-profit organizations on a wide range of topics, including which types of financing are most appropriate for their needs, what lenders look for in potential borrowers, alternatives to traditional bank loans and tips on improving their chances for success. These are just a few examples of the activities that reflect the Bank’s commitment to the region. Let me turn now to the subject matter of today’s briefing: the economic outlook for the regional economy. There is a lot of good news to share. Many parts of the region have bounced back quite well from the Great Recession, and now have more jobs than before the downturn. New York City really stands out in this regard. While the Great Recession was the deepest and longest recession in modern history for the nation as a whole, New York City bucked that trend to a surprising degree, and did it with little help from Wall Street. As we will discuss later in the briefing, one of New York City’s strongest sectors has been technology. In this recovery, employment in the city’s tech sector has added nearly 50,000 jobs, many of which pay well. The growth of the so-called Silicon Alley has not only helped the city bounce back from the recession, but, I believe, is a key for the city moving forward. When I visited Brooklyn late last year, I saw firsthand how technology is spurring economic activity, directly and indirectly.

For example, Etsy, the popular e-commerce website, which in many ways resembles a retail company, relies on technology to underpin its business model. But it’s not just New York City that is growing nicely. Employment levels on Long Island and in parts of upstate New York—most notably the Albany, Buffalo and Rochester metro areas—have also climbed and are at or near record highs. During my recent trip to upstate New York, I saw first-hand some of the positive developments in Rochester and Buffalo. After undergoing a prolonged period of economic transformation and reinvention, Rochester’s economy is now more diverse and dynamic than ever before. Meanwhile, the growth in Buffalo was striking. The numbers show a dramatic uptick in construction 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  employment, and the visual evidence of development was widespread. I was especially impressed with the downtown and waterfront areas, as well as the new SolarCity factory—all of which looked dramatically different than when I visited the area less than two years ago. Both of these places are well positioned for future success. On the other hand, the employment recovery has been slow to take hold in both Northern New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley, where jobs are still not back to their pre-recession peak despite employment growing steadily. For Northern New Jersey, this lag is due, in part, to a stall in the growth of jobs in professional and business services. But the education and health sectors continue to add jobs, and construction employment is seeing a rebound.
Jacqueline Loh: Public-private partnership – the way forward for natural catastrophe risk management in Asia Opening address by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the 5th Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management Symposium, Singapore, 24 April 2014. *  *  *  Professor Bertil Andersson (President, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore), Professor Haresh Shah (Founding Chairman, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management (“ICRM”)), Professor Pan (Director, ICRM), Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Introduction 1. It is my pleasure to join you today at the 5th ICRM Symposium. The theme for this year’s Symposium, “Financing of Natural Catastrophes in Asia – The Role of Private Sectors, Governments and Regulators in Natural Catastrophe Management”, highlights the importance of having both the private and public sectors collectively manage natural catastrophe risks. Management of catastrophe risks spans a spectrum of activities across the entire risk management value chain, from raising risk awareness, to promoting effective risk assessment and pricing, and co-developing ex-ante risk financing solutions. This is a very relevant discussion topic, at a time when Asia is facing increasing vulnerability to natural catastrophes. 2. In keeping with the conference theme, I will be sharing a few observations on how we can strive towards sustainable risk financing using a Public-Private Partnership (“PPP”) approach. Asia is more at risk from natural catastrophes 3. Over the last 30 years, Asia has borne the brunt of natural catastrophe losses, accounting for almost half of the world’s estimated economic losses from natural disasters1.

I understand that ICRM is actively involved in a number of PPPs in the region, including the Global Earthquake Model (“GEM”), a PPP with OECD aimed at developing and deploying tools and expertise for earthquake risk assessment worldwide; and the ASEAN Earthquake Model (“AEM”), targeted at developing earthquake risk assessments for the region. Conclusion 15. Let me conclude. Natural catastrophe risk management will be an increasing priority for Asia. The interconnectedness of natural catastrophe risk management calls for going beyond borders; and across stakeholders, both government and industry, to coordinate holistic strategies and manage natural catastrophe risks in a sustainable manner. 16. The ICRM annual symposium serves as a unique opportunity for various stakeholders to come together to discuss challenges, and chart the course for natural catastrophe risk management in Asia going forward. I understand that there is a line-up of interesting presentations covering very pertinent topics such as post-disaster impact analysis  6  4  “Source: ‘IFC Partners with MAIPARK to Provide Earthquake-Index Insurance for Indonesian Banks’”, CAN Newswire, 1 October 2013. BIS central bankers’ speeches  experiences and the types of catastrophe risk transfer and financing solutions, over the next 2 days. 17. On this note, I wish you a productive and memorable time at this Symposium and in Singapore. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
Others, particularly those working in general insurance, are more sanguine - for instance John Parry of Lloyd’s of London told the TSC that “in terms of Solvency II…damaging competitiveness or returns on capital, no, we have not seen that”. Written submissions from the industry to the TSC generally reveal two themes. First, having just consumed this sizeable piece of new regulation, the industry has no desire whatsoever to sit back down at the regulatory table and consume another, radically different, meal. By my reckoning, only one submission to the TSC calls for a fundamental change of regime. And second, that while the PRA has done a reasonable job in steering everyone across the implementation line, it has in the view of some parts of the industry been over-zealous in places. I’ll comment on each of these themes in turn. Solvency II indigestion  I very much agree that having another big meal at this stage would be most unwise. However, I acknowledge that the size and variety of the Solvency II meal has left all of us facing some degree of indigestion. When faced with live market conditions and commercial realities, some aspects of the regime have been found wanting. So I agree with most industry commentators that it is in nobody’s best interests – not firms, policyholders or regulators – to make wholesale changes. But that does not mean that we cannot make a series of tweaks and improvements to the overall system, by way of a digestif.

So when we talk about promoting insurers’ safety and soundness, and protecting their policyholders, this is what we have in mind. The PRA has squeezed much into its short life since it began supervising insurance companies in 2013, not least the enormous undertaking of implementing Solvency II, and knitting insurance supervision into the wider Bank, where there are obvious connections with areas like monetary analysis. And today, the Bank of England’s Independent Evaluation Office has published its thinking on the PRA objective which is unique to insurance, of contributing to the protection of policyholders. All this makes now the ideal time to refresh our approach to insurance supervision. I will begin by taking stock of insurance regulation. These are the rules and standards which apply across the board, and have been recently the subject of ongoing and lively debate. Now that Solvency II has applied, how do we take it forward? From there I would like to explore our approach to insurance supervision – the day-to-day business of 1  understanding, assessing and challenging the 469 firms we are responsible for. In particular, how do we at the PRA think about policyholder protection? 1  This is a consolidated view of insurance groups – there are approximately 600 insurance entities, including solos that are part of groups. 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  And what is the point of all this?
A relevant issue in this regard is the extent to which these macropudential measures are complementary or substitutive with respect to monetary policy instruments. For instance, the activation/deactivation of a countercyclical capital buffer may weaken/increase the impact of expansionary monetary policy measures, as it may have a negative/positive impact on credit supply. 1  Countercyclical capital buffer  11  Implications for the financial system  Let me now briefly discuss the potential implications of ageing for the financial system. Demographic changes will affect the demand for financial products in various dimensions. First, the demand for credit will diminish due to the reduction in the number of middle-aged individuals since, over the life-cycle, the amount of debt usually peaks at around those ages (in the range of 25 to 34 years), falling to very low levels when the reference person of the household is older than 55. 12  Additionally, the demand for long-term financial assets will probably increase since working age individuals will need to build up more savings for retirement, against a background in which public pension income might not be sufficient to smooth consumption in the transition to retirement. The flow of funds data actually show that since the beginning of the 21st century the share of financial assets related to retirement in the financial portfolio of euro area households has increased significantly. In particular, the share of pension entitlements plus life insurance and annuity entitlements has risen by more than ten percentage points.

03.03.2020  Challenges of population ageing from a central bank perspective Public Lecture at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB), Geneva Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Good afternoon. Let me start by thanking Professor Ugo Panizza for his invitation to participate in this public lecture organised by the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies. I cannot think of a better place to share some thoughts on population ageing and the challenges it poses, in particular from a central bank standpoint. In my talk I will first describe the process of demographic transformation the world is undergoing. Next, I will shed some light on the challenges that population ageing poses to macroeconomic developments and policies. Finally, I will focus on the implications of an ageing society for the financial system. The demographic transformation  In recent decades, countries around the globe have been experiencing population ageing, a phenomenon poised to transform the societies and the economies in which we live. Currently, according to the United Nations World Population Prospects, 1 in 11 people in the world is over 65, up from 1 in 20 people back in 1950. Indeed, thirty years hence, projections point to the percentage of people over 65 reaching 16% of the population, in other words 1 in 6 people. The figures are quite telling. Actually, the world demographic structure no longer resembles a population pyramid. Rather, it is turning into a slender tower.
And it is founded on the belief that we can have a far greater impact by coming together, than we could acting alone. This is embodied in the National Strategy for Financial Literacy 2019 – 2023 which is a product of FEN. The National Strategy is centred around five Strategic Priorities that serve to anchor initiatives by FEN members to enhance the financial capability of Malaysians, thereby encouraging alignment and creating synergies. So what are these Strategic Priorities? First, nurturing values from young; Second, increasing access to financial management information, tools and resources; Third, inculcating positive behaviour among targeted groups, including the youth, selfemployed and those entering the workforce; Fourth, boosting long term financial and retirement planning; and Fifth, building and safeguarding wealth. Since the launch of the National Strategy in July 2019, FEN members and partners, working in collaboration with the government, business community and education sectors have undertaken over 400 education programmes and initiatives, covering a wide and diverse spectrum of the public that saw more than 47 million interactions with FEN’s various outreach programmes. A key achievement by FEN members working collaboratively has been the integration of financial education elements into all levels of the formal school curriculum, from pre-school right up to upper secondary levels. Financial education modules have also been introduced as electives in college programmes.

The Community of Practice enables us to tap into a reservoir of knowledge and expert resources to explore new opportunities and ideas, and strengthen existing collaborations to take the financial education agenda forward. As FEN continues to grow, we hope to further expand the Community to provide thought leadership and strategic insights that will benefit all FEN members and partners in our joint efforts to raise the level of financial literacy in Malaysia. On this note, let me thank everyone again for taking the time to share your perspectives today. I very much look forward to the discussions ahead. Thank you. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches