samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Villy Bergström: The Riksbank’s role in the economy Speech by Mr Villy Bergström, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, to the Swedish Shareholders Association, Jönköping, 28 February 2001. *  *  *  Some time ago, the British journal The Economist wrote that the world’s central banks were now at the height of their power. It is easy to get that impression when you see the enormous amount of interest devoted to the central banks in the daily press, the broadcasting media and economic journals. This applies to the Riksbank in Sweden, to the European Central Bank – the ECB – and, especially to the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve with Alan Greenspan in the foreground. During the autumn electoral campaign in the United States, a number of newspapers put forward the view that it would not make any difference whether Al Gore or George Bush was elected as President - it was in any case Greenspan who was in control. When Greenspan surprisingly cut the American instrumental rate by 0.5% in January between two ordinary monetary policy meetings of the Federal Reserve’s decision-making body, the decision was applauded with headlines such as “Greenspan saves the world again”. This type of statement is simply ridiculous. The importance of monetary policy cannot be compared with the Government’s general policies or with the office of President. However, things have gone so far that the central bank is regarded as a second government in many countries. These comparisons are, of course, unreasonable.

However, it is first when private consumption has accelerated in recent years that GDP growth has increased so strongly that unemployment has also fallen. Many factors have led to households starting to consume: Cuts in public finances no longer burden household budgets – instead lower taxes have increased disposable income. Unemployment has fallen at the same time as real wages have risen markedly. Finally, household net wealth has increased due to increasing property and share prices up to summer last year. However, household’s expectations about the future seem to play a crucial role for household’s propensity to consume. In the last few years, investments in the business sector have increased quite strongly in volume while it is only just recently that investments in housing construction have started to increase. The strong growth we have seen in recent years is higher than that sustainable in the long term. The Riksbank makes the assessment that annual increases in production of 2- 2.5 per cent are possible in the long term. The amount that GDP can increase is determined by the increase in productivity and by how much employment can increase. The larger increase in production in recent years is primarily due to there being a lot of unused resources in the economy after the problem years in the early 90s, when there was a substantial drop in production. While the productivity of the business sector has increased, it has primarily been increased employment that has created scope for growth.
Monetary policy response  The CBRT has been clear about its approach in responding to inflation resulting from factors beyond its control: Monetary policy will tolerate the first round effects, but will promptly respond to any deterioration in overall pricing behavior. I want to emphasize that the policy pursued since September 2007 should be interpreted in this context. In September 2007, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to initiate the rate cuts, which had already been signaled earlier in the year. Accordingly, policy rates were lowered by 225 basis points between September 2007 and February 2008 (Table 2). Table 2: Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Decisions in 2007 and 2008 Dates for MPC Meetings  Decision on Interest Rates  Interest Rate  January 16th, 2007 February 15th, 2007 March 15th, 2007 April 18th, 2007 May 14th, 2007 June 14th, 2007 July 12th, 2007 August 14th, 2007 September 13th, 2007 October 16th, 2007 November 14th, 2007 December 13th, 2007 January 17th, 2008 February 14th, 2008 March 19th, 2008 April 17th, 2008  No Change No Change No Change No Change No Change No Change No Change No Change -0.25 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.25 -0.25 No Change No Change  17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.25 16.75 16.25 15.75 15.50 15.25 15.25 15.25  Source: CBT. In the January 2008 Inflation Report, we indicated that uncertainties in the global economy, hikes in electricity prices, and risks to price setting behavior had compelled the CBRT to be more responsive to incoming information.

Consequently, the contribution of energy items to year-to-date CPI inflation reached about 0.9 percentage points. 2  BIS Review 62/2008  Figure 3: Subcomponents of CPI (First Quarter Percentage Change)  10  2006  2007  2008  Energy  Goods exc. Food and Energy  8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Food  Services  Table 1: Contribution to First Quarter CPI Inflation (Percentage Points)  CPI  Food*  Energy  Goods exc. Food and Energy Services  2008  3,09  2,31  0,86  -0,74  0,65  2007  2,36  1,93  0,22  -0,39  0,60  2006  1,25  1,41  0,38  -1,20  0,66  * Food: Food and non-alcoholic beverages. Source: TURKSTAT, CBT. Distinguished Guests; The decline in services inflation came to a halt in the first quarter of 2008. Elevated food and energy prices have been exerting upward pressures on the prices of catering and transport services. Rents and other services, on the other hand, have continued to decelerate (Figure 4). BIS Review 62/2008  3  Figure 4: Subcomponents of Services Index (First Quarter Cumulative Percentage Change) 5  2006-2007 Average 2008  4 3 2 1 0 Rent  Transport Services  Restaurants and Hotels  Other Services  Source: TURKSTAT, CBT. Distinguished Guests, Global uncertainties and their reflections on the domestic financial markets have led to exchange rate movements, which in turn affected March inflation especially through the prices of fuel and high-tech consumer durables.
I will pick out a few of the highlights for discussion. First let me note that the “stress” so far has not involved any actual exit from accommodative policies in the advanced economies. The change in the outlook was initiated by speculation about the possibility that the FOMC might start to slightly reduce the rate at which it is adding stimulus! It would have been a more severe stress if policy rates had actually been changed. Many firms for whom maturity transformation is a major part of their business model will actually be better off if the short-term rates at which they fund themselves are relatively unchanged while longer-term rates rise. Have markets got it wrong? If so then in my view that was not obviously in the price reactions since May (although the extent of the fixed-income sell-off may turn out to have been overdone, especially for the UK) – rather it was the expectations that had become embedded prior to May which had become overly certain even if, at that time, it supported the intent of monetary policy in both the US and Europe. It is important to remember that monetary policy is about decision making under uncertainty. Considerable uncertainty. Policy makers get surprised by economic developments just like everyone else, and that news is often visible to the market before the authorities can even think about the right responses, let alone respond to them.

The difference in credit growth between households and non-financial enterprises is a good illustration of Norway’s dual economy. Over the past few years, credit growth has been far higher for households than for enterprises. The level of household credit growth has remained high recently in spite of increased unemployment and a downward revision of the prospects for economic growth. An important reason for this is the sharp rise in house prices in recent years. Low investment demand is reflected in credit to non-financial enterprises, which has declined to a very low level. Developments in prices for commercial property compared to house prices also indicate that the situation is better for households. The current level of vacancy in commercial premises is very high. Although lower interest rates will, in isolation, stimulate investment, a substantial share of the vacant premises will probably have to be filled before renewed growth can be expected. Developments in mainland enterprises have been characterised by low output growth, falling investment and declining profitability in many industries. In order to boost returns on invested capital, enterprises have taken steps to reduce costs, primarily by reducing their workforce or relocating parts of their production abroad. There are some positive impulses, however. Interest rates are low, and equity prices have increased sharply since the trough in February 2003. The krone has depreciated and there are signs of a global upturn. Wage growth has moderated and cost inflation is likely to be lower than in the years from 1998 to 2002.
James D Rogers: Inauguration of the Sierra Leone Stock Exchange – a significant milestone Welcome address by Dr James D Rogers, Governor of the Bank of Sierra Leone, at the inauguration of the Sierra Leone Stock Exchange, Freetown, 27 July 2007. *  *  *  Mr Chairman Your Excellency The President Honourable Vice President Honourable Minister of Finance Honourable Ministers Honourable Members of Parliament Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen I am extremely delighted to welcome all of you, and in particular His Excellency The President and the Honourable Vice President to this inauguration ceremony the Sierra Leone Stock Exchange, a project pioneered by His Excellency The President and into which much time and resources have been invested by the Bank of Sierra Leone over the past several years. In 2002 the first step was taken with the establishment of the Stock Exchange Technical Committee (SETC) under the Chairmanship of the Deputy Governor of the Bank. I wish to note that the present Deputy Governor is the second Chairman of the Committee, and has professionally steered us to this point. I want to particularly thank His Excellency The President for accepting our invitation to launch this project. During his administration, His Excellency has given support, encouragement and advice to the Bank in every sphere of its activities, and I wish on behalf of the Board and Management to express my thanks and appreciation to him.

The constraints imposed by such a financial infrastructure, and the inadequacies and inefficiencies attendant thereto, provide key justification for the development of the capital market which will play the lead role for mobilizing domestic and foreign investment, as well as engendering low cost, efficient, financial intermediation. While in our financial sector development we have taken steps to improve the payments system, supervision of banks, strengthening their capital base, and enhancing efficiency in general, we have also put strong emphasis on ensuring the emergence of a comprehensive financial sector, that will meet the demands of an emerging market economy such as ours. BIS Review 107/2007  1  In the process of developing the capital market, we have worked with private sector and external development partners, especially the First Initiative and the Commonwealth Secretariat, to put in place a robust legal and regulatory framework that will facilitate the process. Through the Resident Consultant provided by the First Initiative, we have defined the system of regulations that would guide the operations of the capital market, and the stock exchange in particular, in all facets of its operations. We have ensured that these are consistent with acceptable international standards, and I can now confidently say that our stock exchange will operate with adequate safety and protection of the interests of the investing public. No one therefore should entertain any fears in transacting business through our stock market. The process of developing the legal framework has been participatory and transparent.
In fact, Singapore companies have already entered into many businesses in India, including IT, telecommunications, hotels, township development, professional services, port management and other infrastructure projects. Earlier this week I visited the Information Technology Park in Bangalore - a development led by a consortium of Singapore companies with Indian partners. It is quite a sizeable park - 28 hectares - with its own power generation and even sewerage treatment plants. The Park has attracted many tenants to Bangalore, and will be expanding further in the third phase of its development. Other Singapore companies such as Singapore Telecommunications, Parkway Holdings and the Port of Singapore Authority have also invested in India. To-date, investments by Singapore companies in India amount to $ I expect this figure to rise strongly, as the Indian economy continues to open up and the business environment becomes more conducive. Economic cooperation is best led by the private sector, which can operate on a commercial basis and react quickly to opportunities. But governments can do much to support the private sector. Governments set the tone and framework for economic liberalization and integration. They should promote cross border economic activities, dismantle trade and investment barriers, harmonise regulatory standards, and jointly agree on steps to enhance our business environments. These government efforts make a lot of difference to the commercial calculations of the private sector, and catalyse the flow of people, goods and investments. 30. India and ASEAN have been actively engaging each other for several years.

Lee Hsien Loong: Connecting India and Singapore Keynote address by Mr Lee Hsien Loong, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore and Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Standard Chartered Bank’s Singapore Conference, Mumbai, 16 January 2004. *  *  *  Introduction I am delighted to be here today to address the Standard Chartered Bank’s Singapore Conference. We stand on the threshold of a major transformation in Asia. With a combined population of 3 billion people, Asia is the largest and most promising region in the world today. It includes Japan, not fully recovered from its post-bubble malaise, but still the second largest economy in the world, with deep capabilities and advanced technology. It includes South Korea, which took painful measures to open up its economy and restructure its chaebol-centred industrial system. And it includes Southeast Asia, whose countries have put behind them the trauma of the Asian Financial Crisis, and are growing and attracting investments again. The biggest stories in Asia are China and India. It has been projected that China’s GDP could overtake Germany in the next four years, Japan by 2015, and the US by 2039. India too is opening up and growing strongly, and could become the 3rd largest economy in the world within 30 years. Globalisation plays a big part in Asia’s vitality. It has resulted in more Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) into Asia, and created jobs and prosperity for Asians.
Mr. Yam discusses the causes of and solutions to the recent financial turmoil in the Asian region Speech by the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Mr Joseph Yam, JP, at a symposium in commemoration of 50 years of central banking in the Philippines organised by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Manila on 5/1/99. Introduction I am delighted to be here today to help commemorate this important anniversary in such distinguished company. Having recently had my own fiftieth birthday, I can confirm that fifty years is a very venerable age, and I offer my heartiest congratulations to all those involved in central banking in the Philippines over this past half-century. The turmoil of the past eighteen months has made us all feel older and wiser, and it is appropriate that the Bangko Sentral should make use of this anniversary to provide us with an opportunity to review recent events and, more important, to look to what lies ahead. The topic of this session is “Causes of and Solutions to the Recent Financial Turmoil in the Asian Region.” I welcome the way in which causes and solutions are placed here in a regional context, because the nature of the problem in front of us is such that lasting solutions can only be found through wider co-operation, particularly among geographical neighbours. In fact, I should like to go one step further by suggesting that, if the turmoil we see around us is regional, the crisis we face is an international one.

I shall look first at the immediate and palliative responses, and then focus more on the longer term preventive measures, since the most effective solutions lie not in short-term fixes, but in building healthy domestic and international systems that minimize the possibility of future turmoil. Immediate and palliative responses are often necessary to cope with a shock to the system, particularly when the scale and nature of the shock are beyond expectations, even by the most pessimistic, as is the case with the financial turmoil of the past 18 months. These responses include, first, rescue packages mounted either independently by individual economies, if they have the necessary resources, such as Japan, or through the assistance of international financial institutions, such as the IMF, involving the provision of external financial resources. These packages are having some effect, and in some countries - Thailand, for example - have already helped stimulate recovery. It is vital that individual economies get themselves back on their feet if they are to move on and meet the challenges of and derive the benefits from continued global economic growth and development. The IMF and other international financial institutions have an important role to play in this, in mobilising international financial resources, from both the official and private sectors, to assist those who have stumbled and fallen, very much as victims of the internationalisation of financial markets.
This means that consumption will not increase as much and that an expansionary fiscal policy will have little or no effect (see for example Barro and Redlick, 2011). 7  IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2010. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  economy recovered relatively quickly following the crisis of the 1990s. However, Michael Bergman of Copenhagen University has shown that budget consolidation in Sweden between 1994 and 1997 actually had a negative impact on GDP and consumption and also led to an increase in unemployment.8 Given this it is reasonable to expect that cuts in the euro area and the United States will lead to reduced demand on export markets that are important to Sweden, and to lower resource utilisation. Risk of an impact on the exchange rate The fact that countries with weak public finances may be forced to implement fiscal tightening in what appears to be a weak economic climate has consequences for monetary policy. We can expect more central banks abroad to conduct an expansionary monetary policy in order to counteract the dampening effect of fiscal tightening on demand. However, as policy rates in many countries are already close to zero there is limited scope for further policy-rate cuts. Many central banks are instead expected to leave their policy rates unchanged for some time to come.

Climate change has been among the focus areas of management since 2006. Our work on financial risk as a result of climate change is incorporated in the investment strategy and the financial objectives of the GPFG. The Ministry of Finance is now working to introduce a new behavioural criterion for companies’ climate emissions in the guidelines for observation and exclusion. Such a criterion must then be managed in line with the highest defined threshold for exclusion. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  It is important that the overriding principle for Norges Bank’s investment management continues to be that the GPFG is a responsible investor with a financial objective. If the GPFG is increasingly used as an instrument for pursuing objectives other than financial ones, it may reduce the clarity of the GPFG’s role as a financial investor. If the GPFG investment scope is subject to considerable restrictions, it may entail increased risk or lower returns. The management of the GPFG has been successful to date. The total return since the establishment of the GPFG amounts to more than NOK 2 500 billion, or about 40 percent of GPFG capital. Through its management, Norges Bank will continue to promote its overriding objective: to safeguard the Fund’s assets over time. Thank you for your attention. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
We have had examples of this in Sweden and it could also happen in some other countries. How can euro adopters prepare public finances for asymmetric shocks? This was a major issue in the Swedish debate ahead of the euro referendum. Despite the fact that there had been reforms in the public-finance framework in Sweden in the 1990s, the Riksbank and others argued that more should be done before joining the euro area. 2  BIS Review 53/2003  Essentially two things are required: First, there is a need for sufficient margins in the public finances. In practice, this means that debt levels should not be too high. If the economy enters a downturn that does not affect the rest of the euro area to the same extent, it is important that there is scope to conduct more expansionary policy. If the scope is there, one can be reasonably sure that it will be used. It is more difficult to handle the second, opposite situation - upturns and over-heating tendencies. What is then required is a framework that stimulates or even forces political decision-makers to act in time and to take decisions that might be difficult in the short run but that are correct in a longer perspective. Here we drew some inspiration from our monetary policy set-up. Fiscal policy could be guided by clear targets that are defined in terms of countries’ output gaps. Alternatively, national inflation targets could be introduced.

I am looking forward to learning from what I hope will be both an open-minded and a constructive dialogue about the future of monetary and macroprudential policies. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1