samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In my mind, the Federal Reserve Act is very clear in specifying that the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: The FOMC should provide for monetary and financial conditions that support maximum employment and price stability.2 With regard to inflation, we should seek to keep inflation near 2 percent over the medium term. We should also remember that a 2 percent objective should represent an average level of inflation, not an impenetrable ceiling. With regard to our real economy mandate, we should minimize the deviations of the actual path of the real economy from its potential path (or more technically, its efficiently-achievable path). From my earlier discussion of the immensity of the current problem, we are far from minimizing these real deviations today. Second, the FOMC needs to closely look at the plethora of data that comes out every month in order to evaluate the outlook for the economy and inflation, keeping in mind a variety of potential risk scenarios and financial stability considerations. Four times each year, the FOMC formally publishes forecasts in its Summary of Economic Projections. Of course, it is crucial for each FOMC member to update his/her outlook for each meeting. Third, in evaluating the state of the economy and inflation pressures, the FOMC must periodically step back and ask itself whether something very different than normal is afoot. We all recognize that our views about how the economy works are imperfect.

Indeed, the FOMC discussed this issue at great length (see the minutes of our January 2011 meeting).4 However, I have yet to see empirical evidence based on a modeling framework that successfully captures U.S. business cycle dynamics that shows such supply-side structural factors can come close to explaining the huge shortfalls in actual GDP from trend and the high level of unemployment. For example, extended unemployment insurance and increased difficulties in matching workers to vacant jobs may have resulted in a transitory increase in the natural rate of unemployment, but the analysis I’ve seen doesn’t get you close to the 9 percent rate we currently are experiencing. The policy loss function The macroeconomics literature often describes the policymaker’s problem as one of minimizing societal costs of bad outcomes – which it mathematically approximates by the sum of the squared deviations in inflation from its target and the unemployment rate from its so-called natural rate. It turns out that a conservative and tough-minded central banker should value these deviations about equally.5 Accordingly, an inflation rate of 5 percent against an inflation goal of 2 percent is the same sized loss as an unemployment rate of 9 percent against a conservative estimate of 6 percent for the natural rate of unemployment. Today, we are facing an unemployment rate of 9 percent with little prospect of meaningful declines soon and the medium-term outlook for inflation is under 2 percent. This policy framework is often described as flexible inflation targeting.
The size of global Islamic finance assets made a quantum leap from only $ billion in the mid-1990s to $ trillion at the end of 2011.1 Although the investment climate has been clouded by the US sub-prime crisis and the European sovereign debt problems in recent years, the global sukuk market is powering ahead. Indeed, last year was the best year for the global sukuk market on record, with sukuk issuances growing by more than 60% year-on-year, taking the outstanding sukuk amount to a new height of $ billion.2 According to some market estimates, the size of the global Islamic finance industry has the potential to increase five-fold from the current level to some $ trillion by 2020.3 4. The development of RMB-denominated investment products is equally impressive. In a short space of 6 years, the size of the RMB dim sum bond market in Hong Kong has grown from a modest amount of 10 billion yuan in 2007 to 237 billion yuan at the end of 2012. Offshore RMB financial products have also become more diversified, expanding from only RMB bonds to RMB equities, RMB investment funds, RMB A-share exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as well as RMB insurance products. The growth momentum of the offshore RMB financial markets is expected to pick up further, as more and more financing and investment activities can now be conducted in RMB, especially following the introduction by the Mainland authorities of the arrangements for inward and outward direct investments in RMB and the RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (i.e.

Prasarn Trairatvorakul: Thailand in the new regional and global financial landscape Speech by Dr Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Thailand General Council and Networking Dinner, Bangkok, 30 September 2014. *  *  *  Good evening distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. I am delighted to be here today, to address honorable members of Thailand International Chamber of Commerce. Thailand International Chamber of Commerce has made an important contribution to our nation in two main ways. At home, the organization helps develop awareness among members on future trends of business. In the international arena, the International Chamber of Commerce ensures member’s participation in the formulation of trade and investment policies. On this occasion, I would like to express my appreciation for the hard work that you have done throughout the past fifteen years and the strategic function that your organization will continue to serve in a more dynamic environment going forward. Today, I would like to share with you my perspective on how Thailand could prosper in the new regional and global financial landscape. Let me offer an analogy. Imagine yourself embarking on an important challenge, perhaps a new job with demanding responsibilities. Naturally you may feel a little nervous, since there is no guarantee that the new venture will be a successful one. A transition to a successful career consists of three stages.
Under a single unified law, businesses will find it easier to comply with regulations; and at the same time the Bank of Thailand will strive to maintain flexibility in our supervision of payment systems in a way that mitigates risks but does not hinder innovation. In addition, the bill also provides assurance of payment finality and float protection, thus upgrading Thailand’s payment system to international standards. We acknowledge the importance of payment infrastructure in supporting the digital economy. The emergence of Financial Technology or FinTech along with its various innovations cannot be fully realized without having a good legal support and a clear policy. I will elaborate more on Thailand’s payment system in the third part of this talk. Before moving on to the next group of laws, I want to remind the audience that while I chose to highlight these three laws, there are many other legal reforms taking place that would enhance business productivity. One example is the Eastern Economic Corridor Bill, approved by the cabinet this October, which will establish a special economic zone across three provinces to attract investment in industries of the future. The zone is designed to facilitate business operations with extensive infrastructure investments to support transport, logistics, and public utilities. Firms operating within the special zone will receive additional incentives including tax-related and foreign labor employment benefits. Ladies and gentlemen, so far I have discussed laws that promote governance, economic opportunity, and productivity. The last group is sustainability.

While striving for economic growth, we must not forget that inclusive growth is a prerequisite for sustainable development. I could not agree more with the United Nations’ 2030 agenda for sustainable development that “no one should be left behind”6. Thus, various measures to promote financial inclusion have been implemented and many more are in the pipeline, to ensure that everyone has access to financial services at fair prices. More importantly, empowering people with financial literacy and financial planning capability is an important element of inclusive growth. Ladies and gentlemen, Sustainable economic growth requires concerted effort from all parties involved. Initiatives from the banking sector alone will not be sufficient. The capital market and exchange can and should play an important role. I am very pleased to see that the agenda of this year’s WFE conference is well in line with the aforementioned three imperatives. It is encouraging that the exchange industry is working together to find meaningful ways to boost productivity through fostering growth and embracing new technology; build immunity from mitigating emerging risks and building resilience; and promote inclusivity via increasing retail investor participation. WFE has shown, once again, its commitment to support the development of fair and efficient markets, embracing the role of exchanges to facilitate the efficient allocation of resources and thus promote the real economy and the well-being of the people at large. Ladies and Gentlemen, Our world is rapidly changing.
Bancassurance and bancatakaful provide immense potential for further market penetration given the relatively higher level of public confidence in financial  4  BIS Review 123/2007  dealings with banks and the significant spin-offs that can be reaped through data mining arrangements with banks. Although bancassurance has become firmly entrenched in Malaysia (accounting for 45% of new business premiums in 2007), it also continues to develop rapidly in terms of market reach and operational sophistication. Fourthly, with the rapid technological advancements and increasing consumer demands for more efficient delivery of products and services, the Malaysian insurance industry has continued to transition towards information technology-driven solutions, as well as, leveraging on more efficient payment and settlement systems such as e-payments. This has significantly enhanced the delivery of personalized and customized insurance solutions, made possible through the utilization of new delivery channels, including those that are internet-based. In the area of general insurance for instance, the successful implementation of e-cover notes for motor insurance policies led to vast improvements in service efficiency, better enforcement of cash-before-cover regulations as well as reduction in premium collection fraud. In the area of capacity building, human capital development is key to the future development and growth of the financial sector. As competition intensifies, the role of human capital in defining the areas of comparative advantage will become more prominent.

Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Charting new frontiers – financial advisers the future Keynote address by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Inaugural Conference of the Association of Financial Advisers “Charting new frontiers – financial advisers the future”, Kuala Lumpur, 31 October 2012. *  *  *  I would like to congratulate the Association and its members for your commitment, which has resulted in the successful formation of the AFA to champion and promote the interests of all licensed financial advisers in Malaysia. The formation of AFA is most timely, and marks a significant milestone in the progressive maturing of the financial advisory industry. Since the introduction of FAs in 2005, we have seen commendable growth within the industry, with the number of licensed FAs rising from 2 to 17, and the number of licensed FA representatives increasing from 17 to 229 today. The formation of the AFA is timely as it provides a platform to encourage greater collaboration among FAs to instill greater professionalism among its members and I expect the AFA to play an important role in coming up with clear strategies to propel the financial advisory sector towards greater progress and growth. Developments in the insurance and takaful sectors There are some broad developments within the economy and the financial sector that will expand the opportunity for growth in the provision of independent financial advisory services.
7  Actually, this was the “second unbundling”, as observed by Baldwin (2013), following the “first unbundling” brought about by trade itself – which allowed the separation of production from consumption across time and space. Baldwin, R (2013), “Global supply chains: why they emerged, why they matter, and where they are going”, Chapter 1 in Global Supply Chains in a Changing World, WTO. 8  See Hummels, D, Ishii, J and Yi, K-M (2001), “The nature and growth of vertical specialisation in world trade”, Journal of International Economics, 54. 9  Measured by the sum of overlapping trade as a fraction of world manufacturing trade. See Amador, J and Cabral, S (2009), “Vertical specialization across the world: a relative measure”, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 20(3). 10  See Goldberg, Linda and Jose Campa (2010), “The sensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates: distribution margins, imported inputs, and trade exposure”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92. 11  A flatter Phillips curve has been advanced as one of the potential explanations of ‘the missing disinflation’ we saw in some countries in the post-crisis period. But other factors such as an overestimate of the level of potential supply in the economy and the hold of well-anchored inflation expectations may also have been at work. 12  For example, see IMF (2006) “How Has Globalization Affected Inflation?, World Economic Outlook, Spring 2006, 97–134. and Borio, Claudio and Andrew Filardo, “Globalization and Inflation,” Bank for International Settlements, March 2006.

19, 20 Some have argued that this confers a particular responsibility on US policy makers. Yet US policy is not the sole determinant of global rates. Many recent movements in US long-term government bond yields have appeared to be influenced by ECB monetary policy actions. 21 This is in line with some recent evidence that funding conditions in other financial centres, notably the UK and the euro area, affect funding conditions globally and, therefore, the cross-border supply of funds. 22 Moreover, it is the divergence of monetary policies itself rather than the stance of one central bank in isolation that points to more volatility in exchange rates and asset markets with associated effects on global liquidity conditions. 23  17  Not surprisingly in light of its importance, issues related to pass-through are the subject of intense work at the Bank of England. 18  Bruno and Shin (2015). “Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity,” forthcoming in the Review of Economic Studies. 19  Rey, Helene (2013). “Dilemma not Trilemma: The global financial cycle and monetary policy independence” proceedings of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium at Jackson Hole. 20  Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes and Rebucci (2015). “Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 47, Issue S1, No. 1. 21  See May 2015 20150323a.htm. 22  Cerutti, E., S. Claessens, and L. Ratnovski (2014): “Global Liquidity and Drivers of Cross-Border Bank Flows,” IMF Working Papers 14/69, International Monetary Fund.
These findings are consistent with a broad school of psychological research that shows that feelings of control and opportunity are important determinants of mental health and happiness. The combination of these effects can mean that, even as GDP grows, if the gap between rich and poor widens, aggregate happiness can fall and mental health ailments rise. xiii E.g. Alesina, A., Di Tella, R. and MacCulloch, R. (2004), “Inequality and happiness: are Europeans and Americans different?”, Journal of Public Economics, 88; Rodriguez-Pose, A. and von Berlepsch, V. (2012) "Social Capital and Individual Happiness in Europe," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 25, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe. xiv E.g. Bhagwati, J. (2011), “Why free trade matters”, Project Syndicate, June 23. xv In neoclassical models, free trade is Pareto Optimal in principle – in that the aggregate gains are sufficient to compensate those that lose out while preserving gains for the winners. This typically means some form of redistribution of the gains from trade is needed to achieve this outcome. This is the Kaldor-Hicks compensation principle. It is an open question, however, whether redistribution of this kind actually takes place in practice and, indeed, whether it is itself costless, as the Kaldor-Hicks principle assumes. xvi Stolper, W. F.; Samuelson, Paul A. (1941). "Protection and real wages". The Review of Economic Studies, 9 (1): 58–73, November. xvii Pew Research Center (2014).

The Spectre of Monetarism Speech given by Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England  Roscoe Lecture Liverpool John Moores University 5 December 2016  I am grateful to Ben Nelson and Iain de Weymarn for their assistance in preparing these remarks, and to Phil Bunn, Daniel Durling, Alastair Firrell, Jennifer Nemeth, Alice Owen, James Oxley, Claire Chambers, Alice Pugh, Paul Robinson, Carlos Van Hombeeck, and Chris Yeates for background analysis and research. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  Real incomes falling for a decade. The legacy of a searing financial crisis weighing on confidence and growth. The very nature of work disrupted by a technological revolution. th  This was the middle of the 19 century. Liverpool was in the midst of a golden age; its Custom House was the national Exchequer’s biggest source of revenue. And Karl Marx was scribbling in the British Library, warning of a spectre haunting Europe, the spectre of communism. We meet today during the first lost decade since the 1860s. In the wake of a global financial crisis. And in the midst of a technological revolution that is once again changing the nature of work. Substitute Northern Rock for Overend Gurney; Uber and machine learning for the Spinning Jenny and the steam engine; and Twitter for the telegraph; and you have dynamics that echo those of 150 years ago. Then the villains were the capitalists. Should they today be the central bankers? Are their flights of fancy promoting stagnation and inequality?
Political processes are often protracted, but once a decision has been taken, results should be rapidly visible. to be available as soon as possible. By contrast, central bankers are able to take decisions very quickly, but the results of these decisions – whether good or bad – may not be evident until years later. It is precisely because this lag is often so long that the credibility of central bankers is essential. If central bankers are credible, economic entities will trust them. As a result, monetary policy is more effective. For instance, if inflation rises due to increasing commodity prices, employees will not immediately ask for higher wages because they are confident that the increase in inflation is only temporary. Thus independence is a necessary prerequisite for a central bank, in order to develop the credibility it requires for carrying out monetary policy. Mind you, independence is a necessary – but not a sufficient – prerequisite for successful monetary policy. Central bank independence in monetary policy is not a specifically Swiss achievement. In many countries it has helped to firmly establish inflation expectations in the long term. Consequently, monetary policy can react to shocks in the short-term, when necessary. However, with a view to certain characteristics of the Swiss economy, the independence of the SNB appears particularly valuable. Allow me to explain this briefly, using our experiences during the financial crisis as my example. When the extreme shock of the great financial crisis occurred in 2008–09, monetary policy was in a position to act rapidly.

6  Other societies espouse comparable principles, “It cannot be acceptable in a democratic society that a group of unelected individuals are vested with important responsibilities without being open to full scrutiny and accountability.” Cf. speech given by Alan Greenspan on 5 December 1996 on “'The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society,” Washington D.C. Also, “Democratic principles demand that, as an agent of the government, a central bank must be accountable in the pursuit of its mandated goals, responsive to the public and its elected representatives and transparent in its policies.” Cf. speech given by Ben Bernanke on 26 May 2010, on “Central Bank Independence, Transparency and Accountability,” Tokyo. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  responsibility for its own area.7 Each year we submit an Accountability Report to the Federal Assembly, in which we outline how we have fulfilled our mandate. Also, on frequent occasions we are called upon to provide a full account of our actions to the relevant parliamentary commissions. In addition, we provide the general public with regular information about our assessment of the economic situation and monetary policy – in press releases or half-yearly media conferences immediately after our quarterly monetary policy assessments, in speeches and in interviews. In this way we ensure transparency. Through our legal status as a joint-stock company, we also have duties towards our shareholders which we fulfil each year, at the General Meeting, within the framework set out by the National Bank Act.