samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
An alternative would be for central banks to issue a new electronic form of central bank money that can be used by households and businesses for payments, also known as a central bank digital currency or CBDC. CBDC presents a number of potential opportunities. It could help respond to some of the changes and challenges I described in the beginning of this presentation – including helping to meet the future payments needs of the digital economy, addressing the consequences of a decline in access to cash, and providing a building block for better cross-border payments. It also may be a safer alternative to new proposed forms of private electronic money like stablecoins. But a CBDC may also have significant implications for how our financial system works – in particular if households and businesses were to move their deposit balances from commercial banks to CBDC. This could in turn affect how we implement monetary policy and support financial stability. The Bank has launched a dialogue on the appropriate design of CBDC and an evaluation of whether the benefits of CBDC outweigh the risks. Our deadline for comments is tomorrow – so if you would like to contribute it is not too late. To conclude – changes in the way we pay and the challenges we’ve seen over the past several months pose two important and interrelated questions for central banks and regulators.

Up to now, monetary policy has remained accommodative to foster the growth momentum but the Monetary Policy Committee will be monitoring inflation developments closely, especially the second round effect of energy prices feeding through to core inflation. The aim is to prevent higher inflation from dampening the anticipated recovery of consumption and derailing the pick-up in investment. Indeed, the MPC has been holding the policy rate, in light of the fact that the growth recovery has remained on track and supported by fiscal policy, while closely following inflation developments. As the MPC meets next Wednesday 21 May, we will assess the latest data available and indicators on both growth and stability to decide on the appropriate stance of forward-looking monetary policy. Ladies and Gentlemen, Undoubtedly, the risks to global growth and inflation will not make macroeconomic management an easy task in the immediate term. But, I can reassure you that Thailand’s economy will maintain its resilience against potentially adverse developments, judging from the following four dimensions. First, policymakers today have sufficient room for maneuvering a flexible policy mix as a result of continued adherence to policy discipline. Our fiscal policy is not constrained by concern on public debt sustainability while monetary and exchange rate policies have room to safeguard economic stability and smooth out short-term fluctuations. Indeed, under the new Bank of Thailand Act, the Monetary Policy Committee will be charged with legal responsibility in the realm of both monetary policy target and exchange rate policy and management.
In order to preserve independence of monetary policy, that is, not to subordinate it to the foreign exchange policy nor to a specific value of the exchange rate, the chosen method was a pre-announced and mechanical daily purchase of 50 million dollars. In fact, the degree of independence was such that, later on, the interest rate could be raised when faced with a more complex inflationary scenario, without the need for stopping intervention. Halfway through September, liquidity tensions grew substantially around the world, as well as in Chile. This led the Board to bring the reserve purchase program to an end when almost 6 billion dollars had been accumulated, and the country had reached quite a comfortable international liquidity position, which would enable us to mitigate any possible sudden stop of capital flows. Besides, in view of the worsening of liquidity problems, the Bank announced the supply of liquidity in pesos and dollars through repos and swaps. Later on, in October, the range of eligible collaterals was broadened and the dollar swap program was extended for six months. Then, in December, an extension for all of 2009 was announced for the repos and swaps program, and the range of eligible collaterals was broadened further. The purpose of these measures was to align market rates with the Monetary Policy Rate and to alleviate foreign currency liquidity tensions. Both objectives have been accomplished, and the scarce demand for dollars through swap transactions show that our economy still has a fluid access to the international financial markets.

Therefore, this cycle cannot be expected to disappear or to be completely stabilized by monetary policy, which is in turn not advisable. Macroeconomic policies should only aspire to smooth out any fluctuations. Monetary policy, committed to price stability, can stabilize both inflation and the business cycle. Halfway into last year, it was believed that a more restrictive monetary policy would contribute to reduce inflationary pressures in an international scenario showing less growth, but not a crisis. This was based upon the belief that, although the shock which had given rise to the increase in inflation was external, favoring a deceleration of internal demand would mitigate its propagation to other prices, which had already happened with the inflation records of part of the second and third quarter of 2008. However, a massive international crisis came on top of the natural evolution of the domestic cycle under a more restrictive monetary policy. This crisis, as we can see it today, is bearing a greater impact on output than we expected and than the one needed to bring inflation to target; and this has resulted in a change of sign of monetary policy aimed at mitigating the negative external impulse. 4  BIS Review 41/2009  (ii)  Real and financial impact of the international crisis  The global economic crisis has two kinds of domestic impacts. The first one is financial. Risk premiums rise and capital flows fall.
This is then followed by a discussion on the authorities’ major policies to further strengthen financial institutions’ positions in view of more intensified competition and changing financial environment, including the implications of these policies. Finally, I will conclude this morning’s talk by highlighting some challenges and benefits of capital market development for the banking sector. The Thai financial system consists of four main institutional categories, in the order of their importance: the banking sector, the capital market, specialized financial institutions and non-bank financial intermediaries. The first two categories are the backbone of the Thai financial system, while the third provides funding for specific developmental purposes in accordance with the government policy, and the last supplements the others. Despite the stock exchange boom last year and the pick up of the bond market in recent years, the banking sector remains the primacy of our financial system in every sense. Not only does it provide the bulk of lending that amounted to about 5.5 trillion baht as of end-2003, or equivalent to 93 percent of GDP, the banking sector also mobilizes savings from the public and provides means of payment and settlements that sustain the well-functioning economy. With the recapitalization effort and commendable operational improvement, the banking sector has emerged much stronger after the 1997 crisis, with all performance indicators pointing to the direction of resiliency. The banking sector’s net profit has turned positive for the past three years; this figure more than doubled in 2003 from the previous year.

Therefore, only through proper Pillar II supervisory review can we understand the true risk profile of banks, so that capital requirement is set in line with the risks assumed by banks. To carry out this task, the authorities need to have the right prudential rules in place, as well as the supervisory capability and capacity. At the Bank of Thailand, we are developing prudential standards and risk-focused on- and off-site examination practices and manuals so that each supervisor can work on a common structured approach to risk analysis. Moreover, a lot of resources have gone into supervisory training to equip our supervisors with the necessary tools and build up their sound judgment for the implementation. In parallel, the Bank of Thailand has proposed the New Financial Institutions Businesses Law to the Parliament to give us the necessary legal basis to implement both effective banking supervision and Basel II. To foster Pillar III market discipline enforcement, the authorities are working on an appropriate safety net to replace the blanket guarantee that undermines the functioning of the Pillar III. It’s obvious that without lifting the blanket guarantee, market discipline will not work no matter how much disclosure is required. At present, the Ministry of Finance is in the process of reviewing the draft legislation on Deposit Insurance Agency before submitting it to the Parliament.
The competent parties must endeavour to find solutions that combine the necessary market regulation and supervision with the advantages inherent in capital mobility. A completely regulated market reduces capital flows and generates large fluctuations in market prices, leading in turn to welfare losses. But neither is a market without any common rules and supervision an ideal remedy. Operations in financial markets need some degree of supervision but this must not paralyse the potential for developments that can contribute to higher prosperity in the global economy. BIS Review 23/1999  8

We must now pursue the efforts already initiated and do our utmost to ensure that these improvements feed through to the real economy so that economic growth can return and unemployment can reverse its rising trend. Thank you. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
For the Swiss mortgage market, there is currently only a small risk of a credit crunch. On the one hand, there have been no widespread excesses on the Swiss property and mortgage markets recently, which makes it unlikely that banks’ appetite for risk will decline to any great degree. On the other hand, opportunities for loan refinancing in Switzerland remain strong. The structure of mortgage lending in Switzerland is quite varied, and for banks the “Pfandbrief” mortgage bond is a refinancing tool that provides continuing strong opportunities for loan refinancing, and has experienced something of a renaissance since the financial crisis. As such, the already muted outlook for the Swiss economy is unlikely to suffer any additional impact from a credit crunch on the property market. BIS Review 107/2008  1

The remaining banks have also made appreciable improvements to their levels of own funds through various means such as the issuance of capital instruments, asset disposals or retained earnings, in line with the recommendations on dividend pay-outs made by the Banco de España over the past two years. 3. Cost of the reform of the banking sector  At this stage we might ask what the necessary total cost has been to ensure the stability of the banking system and how it has been distributed among the various parties involved. And, specifically, we can ask what the taxpayer has contributed in this process. An accurate reply to these questions is no easy task, as two factors combine to complicate the estimations required. First, not all aid has already been disbursed; rather, it consists of guarantees covering against future losses that only have a certain likelihood of occurring. Second, not all aid disbursed will entail a loss for the public coffers, insofar as it may be partly or fully recouped through its return by the recipient banks themselves or from the proceeds of the sale of State stakes in these banks. That said, a good starting point to disentangle the matter is the note published last week by the Banco de España,1 which included an update of the different types of public financial assistance provided to the banking sector in the period 2009–2013.
Estimates from our recent survey indicate a sharp drop in the use of cash over the last 15 years. Estimates of the exact level of cash use vary according to data sources and methodology. However, it is fair to say that cash is still an important means of payment. Notes and coins will also remain important as symbols of money. I believe that there have been two very important factors behind the rapid transition to electronic payment services in Norway. Banks have cooperated on standards and payments infrastructure while competing on the supply of services, and banks have charged for the use of payment services. Prices that reflect relative differences in production costs encourage users to choose the most cost-effective services. Research (by Humphrey, Kim and Vale) has shown that a  BIS Review 140/2008  1  relatively high price per transaction for paper-based payment services and a low price for electronic payment services have accelerated the trend towards an increasing share of electronic transactions. Without incentives for consumers or merchants to move to more efficient instruments, banks and other payment service providers will more likely be left trying to improve on old solutions. Payment systems are networks for the exchange of values between payers on the one hand and beneficiaries on the other. In two-sided markets like this, the benefit to existing users increases when new users join up.

This balance is critical to deliver the welfare benefits of financial innovation and avoid stalling the development of digital finance with the risk of leaving someone behind. I look forward to the presentations and discussions by the participants at the conference that I am sure will provide interesting reflections on the abovementioned challenges casting light on the fast changing financial innovation landscape, especially in the payments area. I wish all of you an enjoyable and rewarding conference in Ohrid, our charming city, protected by UNESCO for its natural and cultural heritage. Thank you! 1 The Pulse of Fintech 2018: Biannual global analysis of investment in fintech, 2019,  KPMG,  assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2019/02/the-pulse-of-fintech-2018.pdf 2 The future of banking is open: How to seize the Open Banking opportunity, 2018, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,  retailbankinginnovation.fintecnet.com/uploads/2/4/3/8/24384857/the_future_of_banking_is_open.pdf  4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
1  BIS Review 66/2000  He concludes that the exact degree of independence of the central bank is likely to vary from time to time (giving the example of a peacetime and wartime economy) and he describes the ideal as one in which there will be continuous and constructive cooperation between the central bank and the Government. The effectiveness of this cooperation - he says - will depend more upon the men occupying the key positions at particular times than upon any legal formula, no matter how carefully or elaborately it might be worked out. I have quoted from Exter’s Report at some length because of its particular relevance to this anniversary occasion, but also because, although he was writing in the particular context of Sri Lanka at the end of the 1940’s, contemplating a move from a currency board to a central bank, much of his comment is timeless. I should like to elaborate upon - or supplement - some of his themes drawing upon our own experience in the United Kingdom. For just over 50 years - from 1946 to 1998 - the Bank of England operated under legislation which, remarkably, did not attempt to define our objectives or functions - they were simply assumed to carry over from our earlier long history.

That, in our context, is I think now much easier to understand than a more consensual approach would be, but there was certainly a learning period. It has been suggested to me that the arrangements I have described somehow diminish the position of the Governor. Well if that’s true this Governor at least welcomes it! I am sure that all of you are well aware of how finely balanced monetary policy decisions are at the margin, and that all of you have agonised, just as I have, over the right thing to do and the right time to do it. I find the cross-bearings on those decisions provided by the other Committee members - and they are I remind you all highly qualified experts in their own right - immensely reassuring. If a majority of them argued for a particular decision, that would certainly weigh heavily with me, although - as a matter of personal integrity - I always reserve the right to take a different point of view from that of the majority on those occasions when I am particularly confident of my own judgement. That has not so far happened but it almost certainly will; people should not be unduly surprised. Finally, in relation to monetary policy, let me say a few words about accountability.
Firstly, in Spain, tourism-related activities have a very high weight in terms both of value added and employment. And, as we know, the social distancing measures have affected the sectors related to hotels, restaurants and leisure most acutely. It is uncertain how long the return to normality will take in these sectors. But scenarios in which the persistence of the shock is greater than anticipated and, thereby, the damage inflicted on the sectoral productive system is more severe, cannot be ruled out. Overall, the sectors most affected by the pandemic account in Spain’s case for around 25% of GDP. These include hotels and restaurants, transport and retail trade, owing to the restrictions on people’s movements and the suspension of their activity, and others such as the car industry, owing to the halt in demand and the interruption of global supply chains. 9  Secondly, as regards corporate structure, Spain has a comparatively higher weight of SMEs than most euro area economies. Specifically, in 2019, 90% of firms had fewer than 10 employees (compared with 75% in Germany). The small average size of non-financial corporations places the Spanish productive system in a position of greater vulnerability to the loss of income as a result of the COVID-19 crisis, since generally SMEs have less access to external financing and higher overheads relative to turnover. 10  Lastly, this crisis has once again highlighted sharply the fact that, as occurred in previous recessions, when there is an adverse shock, job destruction falls disproportionately on temporary employees.

3  The full implementation of this phase will require a political agreement that is up to the scale of the challenge we face and that will foreseeably run for several legislatures. The rest of my address today is structured in three major sections. In the first, I shall provide some details on the scale of the economic shock we are undergoing, including its effect on financial stability. Next, I shall review the role the different economic policies are playing in this shutdown phase of our economy. Finally, I will offer some thoughts on the function that, in my opinion, economic policies should perform once we are over the worst of the crisis. 4  Short-term developments and reference macroeconomic scenarios  Globally, the expansion of the pandemic and the necessary containment measures have sharply disrupted the world economy. The evidence coming to light in recent months reveals a marked slump in activity and employment, acutely so in the services sectors and in those countries which, affected by a more severe outbreak of the epidemic, have pursued more stringent containment measures. In China, the first economy to be hit by the illness, the first quarter of the year saw a fall-off in GDP close to 10% quarter-on-quarter. In the United States, the decline was smaller, around 1.2% quarter-on-quarter. Admittedly, though, the spread of the disease was belated.
The data gaps would complicate the assessment on key issues such as the sustainability of household indebtedness, whether we are creating the right type of jobs or whether our policies are providing long term or temporary employment. Second, there are significant gaps in terms of balance sheet data, especially for households and corporates. This deficiency in data complicates detection of vulnerabilities, build up of risks and propagation of shocks from one sector to another. I hope the discussion today would provide insights into dealing with some of these issues I earlier mentioned. At this conference, we will have the opportunity to examine areas which we can improve so that our statistics are credible, relevant and timely, would facilitate informed policy formulation and decision making by the authorities, and enable informed decision makings by economic agents such as investors, financial institutions and the general public at large. In the first three sessions today, our distinguished speakers and discussants will share insights and experiences in many areas; the adoption of statistical best practices in data management, ways to promote data sharing and communication of statistics, identification of statistical gaps and limitations faced by analysts or authorities in the usage of data. The session would also explore and provide possible resolution to challenges confronted by compilers and users of statistics.

Our regular press conferences where we inform you and the general public about current economic and financial conditions, as well as about our expectations, as you know, are based entirely on data. It is not always possible to put a detailed analytical focus on everything that is available and which we produce as data. But that’s why we live in the “era of Internet statistics". Let’s take for example the interest rate statistics available on our website. If analyzed in details, its granularity is very high, offering a great deal of information on the amount of interest on different types of deposit and credit products, which can be helpful for all of us to make a 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  personal financial decision based on information. As one of the bearers of our statistical system, we also observe the public’s need for new categories of statistical data and within our competencies we try to respond to that need. Among other things, we have introduced new data on payment card transactions, the monitoring of which will be discussed today. Over the past years, aware that traditional forms of data display are no longer the most appropriate way of disseminating data, with the support of the European Union we have created a modern statistical web portal “NBStat". According to multiple analyzes conducted in the central banking community, advanced web-based statistical web portals are the most upto-date statistical tool that disseminates data in the simplest, fastest and most detailed way.