samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
We probably won’t know the most important sources of this “conundrum” until more time passes, but the causes of the conundrum do matter to monetary policy. If the first class of explanations turns out to be correct, the federal funds rate probably needs to be somewhat higher than would otherwise be appropriate to offset the additional stimulus due to the flat yield curve. If the latter explanation fits the bill, and the market is correct that the drags going forward will be unusually strong, a somewhat easier policy may be appropriate. Housing Whatever the source of the conundrum, clearly low long-term rates have contributed to the continuing boom in the housing market. The share of residential investment in GDP is now at its highest level in decades. The question on everyone’s mind, of course, is whether this source of strength in the economy could reverse course and become instead a source of weakness. Put more bluntly: Is there a housing “bubble” that might collapse, and if so, what would that mean for the economy? To begin to answer this question, we need to know what we mean by the term “bubble.” A bubble does not just mean that prices are rising rapidly—it’s more complicated than that. Instead, a bubble means that the price of an asset—in this case, housing—is significantly higher than its fundamental value. One common way of thinking about housing’s fundamental value is to consider the ratio of housing prices to rents. The price-to-rent ratio is equivalent to the price-to-dividend ratio for stocks.

MONETARY POLICY Even as Singapore emerges from the trough of the COVID-19 crisis, MAS has been keeping a close watch for risks to macroeconomic stability and market liquidity. MAS reaffirmed in October 2020 and in April this year the accommodative monetary policy stance it adopted in March last year of a 0% appreciation path for the nominal effective exchange rate policy band. The easing of monetary policy last year was to prevent a broadening of disinflationary pressures following the sharp fall-off in economic activity after the onset of the pandemic. While the risk of persistent disinflation has receded, core inflation remains below its historical average and the current policy stance remains appropriate for now. MAS is closely watching developments on global and domestic prices. Core inflation is rising from a low base. While recent domestic developments may check the pace of price increases in the near term, inflation is likely to remain on its broad recovery path. MAS will be alert to any indications of acceleration or persistence in inflation. MARKET LIQUIDITY MAS has continued to keep domestic liquidity conditions accommodative to support the recovery. Singapore Dollar interest rates have remained at low levels since they eased in March last year alongside global interest rates. The 3-month compounded SORA has averaged 0.18% since the beginning of this year, which is more than 0.5% lower than the levels seen in Q1 last year.
This will also turn down the heat in the labor market, reducing the imbalance between job openings and available labor supply. 2/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  While the Federal Reserve on its own cannot address the global nature of inflation, we are not acting alone. Many other central banks are also taking steps to curb inflation. Taken together, these actions should help restore balance to supply and demand globally. That, in turn, should help diminish supply-chain bottlenecks and reduce inflationary pressures. Taking Action In the United States, the FOMC is taking strong actions to restore balance and bring inflation down. So far this year, the FOMC has raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, including a 50-basis-point increase announced after our meeting last week.1 In addition, the FOMC has indicated that it anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. I expect the FOMC will move expeditiously in bringing the federal funds rate back to more normal levels this year.

John C Williams: The right tools for our time Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the International Economic Symposium co-hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank and NABE, Eltville, 10 May 2022. ***  As prepared for delivery Good afternoon. I'm so pleased to be here with you today. We've waited a long time to gather in person. And I think we can all agree that meeting in this charming location was worth the wait. For most visitors, Eltville is renowned for its wine and roses. But for economists, it's a place to convene for weighty discussions on monetary policy. Given the events happening around the world today, there is much to discuss. We are meeting at a time of significant economic challenges and uncertainties. Inflation has reached levels not seen in decades, both in the United States and in many other countries. And recent events-including the war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, and other supply disruptions related to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic-are exacerbating near-term inflationary pressures and uncertainty about the global economic outlook. The challenge for monetary policy today is clear: to bring inflation down while maintaining a strong economy. This, of course, is at the heart of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Although the task is difficult, it is not insurmountable. We have the tools to return balance to the economy and restore price stability, and we are committed to using them.
(2020), “Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity”, IMF Working Paper, No 267. 29. See also Vayanos, D. and Vila, J-L. (2009), “A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates”, Econometrica, Vol. 89, No 1, pp. 77-112; Adrian, T. and Shin, H. (2014), “Procyclical Leverage and Value-at-Risk,” Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 27, No 2; and Gertler, M. and Karadi, P. (2011), “A Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 58, No 1, pp. 17-34. 30. See also ECB (2022), “Financial Stability Review”, November. 31. See, e.g. Albertazzi, U. et al., op. cit. ; and Krishnamurthy and Vissing-Jorgensen, A. (2011, op. cit.). There is also evidence that the share of sovereign bonds on a bank’s balance sheet can explain changes in the bank’s stock price after QE announcements, leading to a “stealth recapitalisation” that is akin to a capital injection for leverage-constrained institutions. See Andrade, S. C. et al. (2016, op.cit. ); Lamers, M. et al. (2019), “The Tradeoff between Monetary Policy and Bank Stability”, International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 15, No 2; and Brunnermeier, M. and Sannikov, Y. (2013), “The I-Theory of Money”, Meeting Papers, No 620, Society for Economic Dynamics. Copyright 2023, European Central Bank

In this case, the use of macroprudential instruments might not be needed in the direction of tightening, as domestic credit expansion will weaken. Distinguished guests, I would like to underscore once more that as the Central Bank, our primary objective is to achieve and maintain price stability, and that as stipulated by Article 4 of the CBRT Law, we are responsible for “taking precautions for enhancing the stability in the financial system and taking regulatory measures with respect to money and foreign exchange markets”. Therefore, we will continue to act with due diligence in terms of financial stability in the upcoming period as well. However, the Central Bank is not the only entity in charge of financial stability. Other public authorities such as the Ministry of Finance, Undersecretariat of Treasury, Capital Markets Board of Turkey, and primarily the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, also have significant authority and policy instruments in this regard. It is essential that in the period we are going through, all policy instruments in hand should be deployed in a coordinated manner for the establishment of a sounder and more stable financial structure. To close my remarks, I would once again like to thank everyone who has contributed to the organization of this event. 4  BIS Review 174/2010
On that day, all 57 outstanding issues of Exchange Fund Notes, with a total value of more than $ billion, will be so listed. I very much hope that this joint effort by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company and the HKMA will successfully stimulate retail interest in our Exchange Fund Notes and, more importantly, retail interest in debt instruments generally. Let me now take this opportunity to do a bit of advertising. The Exchange Fund Notes are, of course, issued for the account of the Exchange Fund. Furthermore, all issues of Exchange Fund paper are fully backed by foreign reserves. For every $ worth of Exchange Fund Notes there is $ held in the Exchange Fund. Investors therefore need have no concerns about the ability of the Exchange Fund to repay this debt. At this time, the Exchange Fund Notes also attract a yield higher than that for US dollar Treasury securities of corresponding maturity. Interest income from holding the Exchange Fund Notes will be exempt from profits tax and trading in the paper will be exempt from stamp duty. The Stock Exchange has also offered to lower the brokerage commission on these products. For a community that has always had a keen and very wide participation in the stock market, the convenience of being able to buy and sell the Notes on these terms, through the brokers on the Exchange, speaks for itself. So much for the advertisement.

A further consequence is disruption to the flow of money from savings to investment and disruption to the economic activities that are so important to the well being of our community. By contrast, we saw in the case of LTCM how, in well developed financial markets, financial flows can be effectively redirected to the banking and equity sectors in response to the failure of the debt market. Indeed, the banks themselves were called upon to rescue LTCM and ensure that, even with dislocation in the debt market caused by excessive leveraging, the financial system could continue to function. No matter whether we are responsible for the plumbing of the financial system or for making money work for the community, we in the financial community all have an interest in ensuring that money flows through these three channels freely, safely and efficiently. One important task for all of us has always been to develop a liquid debt market for Hong Kong. As you are aware, the Exchange Fund debt programme, which started in March 1990, is part of that effort, although the development of the debt market was not the only objective of the programme. Since then, we have brought to the market a total supply of paper amounting to about $ billion, with maturities ranging from three months to ten years. We have also developed a robust infrastructure for the debt market that is fully integrated with the real time payment system to achieve real time “Delivery versus payment” in the trading of Exchange Fund paper.
Bank Negara Malaysia spends about RM359 million a year on the printing and distribution of banknotes and coins. The banking industry on the other hand, incurs an estimated cost of about RM1.8 billion a year in cash handling and the provision of cash services to the public. As for businesses, an BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  estimated cost of about RM2.7 billion is incurred annually for cash handling, in addition to bearing the risk of pilferage and theft. In total, the cost incurred by the banking industry, the business community and Bank Negara Malaysia in cash handling and management is estimated to be around RM4.8 billion a year. The cost to the economy would be even higher if we factor in the cost incurred by the households. With 45 million debit cards for a population of 30 million, Malaysia is well-positioned to migrate from a high dependency on cash usage to the use of cost-effective debit cards. Payment cards issued in Malaysia are already on chip-based technology since 2005. Malaysia was the first country in the Asia Pacific region to implement an industry-wide migration out of the less secure magnetic stripe cards, which are prone to skimming and counterfeit fraud. The adoption of chip-based technology gives us an enormous opportunity to leverage on our large base of secure debit cards and expand the acceptance points (or Point-Of-Sale terminals). We need to capitalise on this potential synergy. Strategy to accelerate migration towards e-payments a.

This is done through psychological manipulation where the fraudster impersonates a bank officer or an officer of Bank Negara Malaysia, to deceive the victim. Such fraud cases can easily be avoided if consumers are made aware of such methods and informed of the precautions that they should take to avoid being fraud victims. As consumers, we should pay particular attention to the fraud alerts provided by our banks and the police and take the necessary precautions. Consumers should know as a basic fact that for instance, their banks or Bank Negara Malaysia will never ask them to disclose or validate personal details such as login ID, passcode and mobile phone numbers through SMS or emails. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  f.  Measures to be undertaken in 2015  We have set out an ambitious roadmap for Malaysia’s migration to e-payments. Moving forward, a strong focus on six strategic priorities is required to accelerate the pace of our country’s migration to e-payments. For 2015, I would like to suggest 6 key measures. i.  Firstly, we need to deploy an additional 50,000 Point-Of-Sale terminals in 2015, targeting in particular lower-tier merchants. The idea is to widen the acceptance of debit cards. To promote wide usage among consumers, we need to intensify efforts to conduct promotional activities to drive the usage of debit cards to reach 89 million transactions in 2015, compared to about 65 million transactions this year. ii.
So too, arguably, did a lack of gender diversity. 35 And a lack of diversity within the financial eco-system – with many institutions holding very similar portfolios – fed and watered these seeds. This lack of diversity, intellectual and financial, contributed significantly to the depth and severity of the crisis. 36 This old lesson from evolutionary biology and systems theory was learned painfully and abruptly by policymakers and practitioners in 2008. What applies at the level of institutions and systems may also apply at the level of nation states. Democracy can be thought of as a sociological mechanism for maximising the diversity of decision-making. By design, it leans against the hubris bias of autocracy or monarchy while reducing the groupthink bias of single-party rule. As synergy is diversity, so too is democracy. And for the same reasons as among institutions and eco-systems, democracy has also been found to make for more robust decision-making. 37 So much for the benefits. None of this is to say that diversity is costless. History is littered with examples of the problems associated with integrating and assimilating diverse peoples. Several recent empirical studies have corroborated those perceptions, again at both the micro and macro scale. For example, there is evidence that diversity in the workplace may sometimes lower employee morale and job performance. 38 And there is evidence that racially diverse communities have fewer social interactions and thus are associated with lower levels of trust.

A recent article in The Economist discussed whether autism is adequately recognised and rewarded in the workplace. 63 It is well-known that those with autism often have an above-average ability to spot patterns and errors, to conduct repeated tasks with high levels of accuracy and to concentrate for lengthy periods. Indeed, given these cognitive gifts, it has been claimed that half of the innovators in Silicon Valley have Asperger’s syndrome, a form of autism. 64 Yet when it comes to the world of education and work, these gifts appear largely to have gone unrecognised and unrewarded. In the UK, only 12% of high-functioning autistic adults are in work. Globally, the United Nations estimate that 80% of those with autism are not in the workplace. Even once in work, the skills and performance of autistic adults may not be properly recognised and rewarded. In the workplace, as in wider society, we are some distance from recognising the true potential of those with autism. 62  Page (2007). 63  “Beautiful minds, wasted: how not to squander the potential of autistic people”, The Economist April 2016. 64  Temple Grandin (2011). BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  Once cognitive diversity is recognised, the next step is measurement. This, too, is far from straightforward because the dimensions of cognition and personality are many and varied. Yet there is no shortage of psychometric tests these days which seek to capture these many and various dimensions.
The narrowest fiscal interpretation of the cost of crisis would be given by the wealth transfer from the government to the banks as a result of the bailout. Plainly, there is a large degree of  1  For example, Reinhart and Rogoff (2009). BIS Review 40/2010  1  uncertainty about the eventual loss governments may face. But in the US, this is currently estimated to be around $ billion, or less than 1% of US GDP. For US taxpayers, these losses are (almost exactly) a $ billion question. In the UK, the direct cost may be less than £ billion, or little more than 1% of GDP. Assuming a systemic crisis occurs every 20 years, recouping these costs from banks would not place an unbearable strain on their finances. The tax charge on US banks would be less than $ billion per year, on UK banks less than £ billion per year. 2 Total pre-tax profits earned by US and UK banks in 2009 alone were around $ billion and £ billion respectively. But these direct fiscal costs are almost certainly an underestimate of the damage to the wider economy which has resulted from the crisis – the true social costs of crisis. World output in 2009 is expected to have been around 6.5% lower than its counterfactual path in the absence of crisis. In the UK, the equivalent output loss is around 10%. In money terms, that translates into output losses of $ trillion and £ billion respectively.

Finally, the Riegle-Neal Act of 1994, which took effect in 1997, largely lifted restrictions on interstate branching for both domestic BHCs and foreign banks. The rationale for this change of heart was a mirror-image of the 1920s. Large banks convinced politicians of the high private costs of restrictions, which inhibited the efficiency of their offering to the public. In Weitzman’s framework, private costs trumped social benefits. The effects of the removal of interstate restrictions were dramatic. The average size of US banks, relative to GDP, has risen roughly threefold over the past 20 years (Chart 1). Too-bigto-fail was reborn in a new guise. The US Banking Act (1933) was co-sponsored by Senator Carter Glass and Representative Henry Steagall – hence “Glass-Steagall”. It prevented commercial banks from conducting most types of securities business, including principal trading, underwriting and securities lending. It also banned investment banks from taking deposits. The key functions of commercial and investment banking were effectively prised apart. The Act was motivated by stability concerns in the light of the Great Depression. The stock market boom of the 1920s had been fuelled by cheap credit from the banks. The stock market crash of 1929 brought that, and a great many US banks, to a shuddering halt. Among many banks, net losses on securities were as great as losses on loans. These losses transmitted to the real economy through a collapse in lending, whose stock halved between 1929 and 1933.
As such, an important priority is the development of a centralised data exchange platform by the industry in collaboration with key stakeholders in the medical ecosystem. Such a platform will not only facilitate the standardisation of medical claims data, but enable the industry to transmit and analyse data in a more systematic, efficient way over the longer term. On a broader scale, we are committed to developing the building blocks necessary for an open data ecosystem in the next five years. The first step we are currently taking together with the industry is to identify high-impact use cases. Given the diversity of innovators in the room today, I welcome interest by the fintech and insurtech sector to approach us directly or via your industry associations to propose impactful use cases that will act as a springboard for the development of common data sharing standards. Redrawing the frontiers for greater efficiency The second critical area is on how innovation has the potential of redrawing the efficiency frontier. Sean Gerety, a user experience or UX expert, shared this insight on innovation: "The technology you use impresses no one. The experience you create with it is everything". The protection journey moving forward goes beyond just 'quote to claim'. It must anticipate and fulfil multiple needs of consumers in a more efficient way. While we do see efforts made by existing players to transform manual claims processes with technology, there is room for improvement in Malaysia. The process of buying and claiming insurance remains cumbersome for many.

Suhaimi Ali: Elevating the insurance value proposition at the intersection of IoT and ecosystems Keynote address by Mr Suhaimi Ali, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the InsurTech Leaders Summit, Damansara, 18 May 2022. ***  Introduction Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. A very good morning. I would like to express my thanks to the organisers of the InsurTech Leaders Summit for inviting me to deliver the keynote address today. The theme of this year's conference is highly relevant – "Elevating the insurance value proposition at the intersection of IoT and ecosystems". Many aspects of our lives are now done online and digitally. Consumers today have higher expectations for round-theclock services, seamless lifestyle interactions and personalised one-stop-shop experiences. Digital ecosystems enable this – for example, partnerships in wider crossindustry ecosystems give providers the agility and reach to thrive in an era where customer-centric value proposition is key. By 2025, it is estimated that 75% of Asia-Pacific business leaders will leverage on digital platforms and ecosystem capabilities to adapt their value chains to new markets 1 . In Malaysia, similar trends are also unfolding. For example, 67% of consumers expressed interest in using online channels to purchase insurance in the future 2. The potential of this digitalisation era has been compared to the era of enterprises in the post WWII period. During that time, the world saw a flourishing of technology and innovation.