samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Swiss economic outlook What does the economic outlook for Switzerland look like, given a baseline scenario with a world economy on a weak growth path as described above? After two years of fairly robust recovery, we expect the Swiss economy to slow considerably in 2012. The situation remains very challenging for Switzerland. On the one hand, the still very strong Swiss franc is weighing on export performance. Firms are suffering from compressed margins. If the difficult exchange rate situation persists, companies may consider relocating production capacity to other regions. On the other hand, the slowdown in external demand, as expected in our global baseline scenario, will likely weigh on investment spending and labor demand in the quarters to come. Although some recently released indicators point to a slight stabilization, we project the Swiss economy to grow only weakly over the next few quarters. Moreover, as mentioned before, there is a very high degree of uncertainty regarding the global outlook. This is also true for the Swiss economy, which depends particularly on economic conditions in the euro area. If the risk scenario of a further escalation of the debt crisis were to materialize, economic activity in Switzerland would suffer a much more pronounced slowdown than just described. Such a development would lead to a severe risk of deflation. Current Swiss monetary policy Given this highly uncertain outlook, the SNB is – more than ever – committed to enforcing the minimum exchange rate with the utmost determination at any time.

However, such crimes are more common in counties that have weak security, or suffer from weak economy and weak judicial and supervisory systems. Among the most prominent negative effects of this phenomenon is the flight of money abroad, with production losing its most important element, namely, capital, hindering production of goods and services, raising unemployment and reducing savings. As a result, investors lose confidence in the economic system and the legislation governing it, creating an anti-investment environment. All this will be reflected on economic growth and the standard of living of society. Money laundering may also result in the availability of liquidity in quantities not commensurate with the increase in production of goods and services, thus increasing inflation and decreasing the purchasing power of the currency. Money laundering affects the country’s position and its reputation among international bodies, and may give misleading economic indicators. From the social point of view, it is significantly dangerous as it leads to non-productive classes acquiring illegal proceeds at the expense of productive classes, increasing the gap between social classes. Moreover, It increases the opportunities of spreading corruption and bribery. Dear Audience, I would like to commend the fruitful coordination and cooperation between the appropriate entities of ministries, security and judicial authorities, and financial and non-financial institutions for combating money laundering.
26 May 2022  Keynote Speech at ASIFMA China Capital Markets Conference Edmond Lau, Deputy Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority Onshore Market Development 1. Good morning. I’m delighted to join you virtually at this year’s China Capital Markets Conference. First of all, let me take this opportunity to thank ASIFMA for organising this event and inviting me to speak. 2. Today’s agenda focuses on onshore market developments. I would like to share my thoughts on the significance of recent developments in onshore capital markets, as well as the opportunities for international investors. 3. Mainland capital markets are experiencing a period of significant growth, with onshore equity and fixed income markets currently the second largest in the world. However, international investors’ exposure to China’s capital markets remains relatively small. Only around 4% of onshore equities and 3% of onshore bonds are owned by foreign investors, which is low by international standards and far smaller than China’s weight in the global economy. 4. We are pleased to see the Mainland’s continued commitment to open up onshore capital markets in recent years. The latest developments to facilitate foreign investors’ access to the onshore markets and adopt international standards have been encouraging and welcomed by the industry. Let me highlight a few of them here. 5. First, with the removal of foreign ownership limits, global financial institutions are able to further expand their footprint in China by taking majority or full ownership in their onshore subsidiaries.

Let me thank you for your attention and wish you a pleasant weekend and for those who are not Parisians a pleasant journey back home... today or I hope for some of you on Sunday!
This brings me to the other big uncertainty: how far will tighter credit conditions affect the wider economy – in the UK and the rest of Europe as well as in North America? It seems highly likely that growth was supported by easier credit over last few years. But to what extent? When it comes to quantifying the effect of changes in credit conditions, our workhorse economic models still cannot help us very much. As far as the UK economic outlook goes, our central judgement is that financial stress will act as a significant drag on demand over the next two years. But there is a high level of uncertainty about this; and, as we now see it, the risks, as they affect output, are tilted to the downside. These are two fold: first, that the financial crisis will persist and possibly intensify; and second, that over time tighter credit conditions and asset price weakness will combine, and in the worst case feed off each other, to sap the strength of overall demand, and put downward pressure on inflation in the medium term. Higher costs Let me come now to the other major area of risk: the upward pressure on inflation from higher external costs. The most recent build up of global cost pressures is just the latest episode in a remarkable period of soaring commodity prices. Oil prices have more than trebled since the start of 2004, and metals and food prices have more than doubled.

Strong demand, particularly from China has clearly been one major factor. But there have been supply side issues too. And the strength of some commodity prices also reflects their status as an investment class at a time of low global interest rates. Over the past year alone, oil prices have risen by around 60% in dollar terms and agricultural food prices by around 50%. Imported cost pressures in the UK will also reflect the fall in the effective exchange rate, down by 9% since the beginning of August last year – the largest such decline since sterling left the ERM in 1992. There are few reasons to expect this to be rapidly reversed. As a result of these developments, producer input and output prices are now increasing faster than at any time since 1990, and import prices have picked up sharply. These cost pressures have not yet fed through fully into consumer prices, but from next month CPI inflation is likely to rise more sharply, in particular reflecting the impact of higher utility bills. There is essentially nothing the MPC can do about this immediate impact on the inflation rate. But its implication for policy depends on whether people recognise the temporary nature of the pick-up in inflation. The MPC’s remit in setting interest rates is clear – to keep inflation at 2%. But we have discretion to decide how fast to return inflation to target, if it is thrown off course by a sharp shock, such as the current surge in world energy prices.
Global Money Week takes place on the 10–17 March and is a worldwide celebration through events and activities to help empower children and youth to be confident and responsible economic citizens. During this week, children are encouraged to engage in learning on how money works, including saving, creating livelihoods, gaining employment and entrepreneurship as well as living financially smart lives. And so for Samoa’s contribution to the event, the Central Bank decided to conduct a financial literacy poster competition to encourage kids to use their imaginations and knowledge about money choices, and help provide a creative outlet to demonstrate their knowledge. For this year’s poster competition theme “I can grow my money by...” myself and Mrs Vicseta Meredith of Business System Limited had the pleasure AND the hard task of judging the entries. We were very impressed with the quality of entries that were presented to us – so it pains us that there are only a limited number of awards we can give out for the competition. “Financial literacy” or “the set of skills and knowledge that allows an individual to make informed and effective decisions with all of their financial resources” is an important life-skill in our diverse capacities as students, employees, consumers, savers and investors etc. In short, it is important for all responsible economic citizens to have. – So why not start now and start young? Start young on financial fitness...it will be fun and worth it!

This has largely contributed to the emergence of an environment favorable to price stability and low unit production costs, strengthening the competitiveness of our European economy. Finally, all countries have experienced significant fiscal consolidation in the 1990s Enhanced European performances are also evidenced by the significant fiscal consolidation pursued in Europe in the 1990s. The general government deficit for the euro area fell by 3.5 percentage points between 1993 and 1997 and was brought back below the 3% threshold. Since then, deficits have continued to fall. The most recent data point to a public deficit of 1.2% of GDP for the euro area in 1999, down from 2.0% in 1998. Four countries of the euro area have managed to achieve a fiscal surplus since 1999. The fact that European member states have made significant efforts in order to improve their public finances does not mean that the process of fiscal consolidation is over. In fact, some member states, including France, still have some way to go to meet the Stability and Growth Pact goal of budget positions which are close to balance or in surplus. In addition, there is a need to further reduce government debt levels, which remained above 70% of GDP for the euro area.
Because the origins of the recent crisis appear to have been closely related to lax credit policies in the personal banking segment, commercial practices that lacked transparency and excessive household borrowing, it has brought the issue of consumer protection to the fore. Although also a broader issue, consumer protection is related to the proper functioning and stability of the financial system, particularly if it is understood to include such important  6  BIS Review 142/2010  matters as financial education, transparency with clients and market behavior, It can, therefore, not be ignored when deciding within which institutional framework and with what policies to address this issue. 4. Final remarks  Concern for financial stability is at the origin of central banks. It can, in fact, be said to be in their DNA. Although this concern had faded over time, the experience of recent years has again brought it very much to the fore. As a result, there is now broad agreement that central banks have an unshirkable role in this field and debate centers rather on the instruments they need to have. The crisis has left important lessons, especially for the developed economies where it had its origins. They have already begun to implement financial reforms in a bid to remedy the weaknesses that were observed.

Many of these instruments, such as providing liquidity, are inherent or traditional while others, such as regulating and watching over payment systems, have developed in recent decades. The experience of the last few years has suggested a need to review or update the available instruments and to generate the operational conditions in which they can be used without delay when needed. During this latest crisis, for example, many central banks were not operationally prepared to receive collateral that was not in habitual use. It has also been suggested that there is a need to incorporate new instruments, principally with a macroprudential approach. However, in the case of some of these instruments – specifically, the use of regulation for countercyclical purposes – evidence is scarce and debate as yet inconclusive. However, beyond the contribution that a central bank can make, financial stability requires a comprehensive framework of financial institutions, policies and practices. The solidity of this framework and its consistency are crucial. Regulation and supervision, whether or not in the hands of the central bank, are critical, but so too are monetary and fiscal policy. The recent sovereign debt crisis in Europe, for example, has demonstrated the importance of fiscal conditions for financial stability. Market discipline and institutions’ management, although discredited by the crisis, are factors that can, with an appropriate regulatory framework and incentives, contribute to stability. The efficiency of regulation and supervision should, in the end, be reflected in good behavior by institutions and the proper functioning of markets.
The separation of power between the legislative, executive and judicial arms of the government safeguards against authority being excessively centralised in any particular party. It is the effective separation of power that provides the checks and balances that ensure that there is strong financial governance at all levels of government. It is the effective separation of power that ensures that the decision maker not only considers his or her self-interest but also that of the society at large. It is the effective separation of power that ensures that the risk of abuse or misuse of public funds is minimized. Therefore, if you want to know the state of public financial governance in a country, the first question to ask is whether there is effective separation of power. To a great extent, the current state of public finances reflects the past track record of financial governance in the public sector. If the state of fiscal health in the crisis-affected economies had been in a better condition, monetary policy would not have had to do so much heavy lifting, QE may not have seen the light of day, and we may now be having better economic growth. When there is an imbalance in macroeconomic policies, or when such  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  policies are used as substitutes for structural reforms, the long-term outcomes will always be sub-optimal, not least because of the distortions and imbalances that are created.

In order to avoid the misallocation of resources, these externalities have to be internalised either by aligning the incentives of the decision maker; introducing a more representative decision-making process; putting in place the appropriate institutional arrangements; having effectively enforced laws, rules and regulations; or occasionally, by societal norms. Secondly, sound financial governance encourages discipline in adhering to the budget constraint. All economic agents are bound by inter-temporal budget constraints, and adherence to it when making financial decisions is key to sustainability. This is particular relevant when the repercussions of financial decisions fall on parties who are not represented – for example, decisions that shift a large debt burden onto future generations. Thirdly, strong financial governance has robust external checks and balances. To ensure sound decision making, especially when externalities are involved, decision makers, and the decision making process, must be subjected to scrutiny by external parties. In this regard, accountability, transparency, and the empowerment of the external party to take consequential action are key to effective financial governance. All these principles apply fully to the management of public finances. Sound public financial governance is the legitimate use of authority in the management of a country’s financial resources with integrity to promote sustainable development. At the heart of it all, sound governance practices in the Government can be traced back to the concept articulated by French Enlightenment political philosopher (Baron de) Montesquieu in the 18th century.
The share of private sector gross product, which SMEs are part of, is 33 percent, while the share of SMEs in GDP is 57 percent in Japan, 64.3 percent in Spain, 56 percent in France, 44 percent in Austria, 43 percent in Canada, 33 percent in Australia and more than 50 percent in the United States. The SME’s modest contribution to GDP in Saudi Arabia could be ascribed to the immensity of the oil and public sectors, being the main catalyst for economic activity. SMEs coverage in the national income accounts might be low. Dear audience, Small and medium enterprises are facing clear challenges to obtain the necessary funding to meet their expansion needs because of several reasons; one of which is the lack of guarantees for granting credit. To overcome this problem in the Kingdom, the Ministry of Finance, in cooperation with Saudi banks, has established “Kafalah Program” for financing small and medium enterprises. It is a program administered by the Saudi Industrial Development Fund with a capital of Rls 200 million to cover a proportion of the risk of the funding entity in case the guaranteed enterprise fails to repay the finance or part thereof, and to encourage banks to finance viable small and medium enterprises, which cannot provide the necessary guarantees or accounting records that prove their eligibility for funding. The program has been performing well since its inception in 2006 up to the end of 2010.

The blue line in the chart shows that GDP growth was markedly higher than trend growth in the latter half of the 1990s and in the period from 2003 to 2008, but that it has risen somewhat more slowly in the period following the financial crisis. When developments in output are compared with inflation, a pattern emerges. A pickup in GDP growth has consistently occurred 4–5 quarters before a rise in inflation.5 While the chart says nothing about causality, turning points in GDP growth seem to be a fairly reliable leading indicator of turning points in inflation. The path from changes in output to inflation passes through the labour market, among others. We have seen that when economic growth has picked up, unemployment6 has declined one to two quarters thereafter. The relationship between the “output gap” and the “unemployment gap” is fairly strong. This is a useful observation because GDP figures are published with a considerable lag and often subject to revision, while the unemployment data published at the end of each month are not revised. If there is uncertainty about the GDP figures – which there often may be – falling unemployment can be an indication of a recovery in economic growth. Labour market developments, in turn, affect wage growth, as illustrated by the blue line in the chart. High unemployment results in low wage growth, and vice versa. The chart shows that in periods of falling unemployment, wage growth7 moves up fairly rapidly.
Yield Curve  5 Year-3 Month Differential in Swap Rates (Percent)  9,5  9,0  9,0 1  2  3  4  5  7  8  9  10  -0,5  -1,0  -1,0  -1,5  -1,5 01.16  0.25 0.5  0,0  -0,5  Term (Year) Source: Bloomberg. 02.17  9,5  0,5  0,0  01.17  10,0  1,0  0,5  12.16  10,0  1,5  1,0  11.16  10,5  10.16  10,5  2,0  1,5  09.16  11,0  2,5  2,0  08.16  11,0  3,0  2,5  07.16  11,5  3,5  3,0  06.16  February 3, 2017  11,5  3,5  05.16  January 9, 2017  04.16  12,0  03.16  12,0  02.16  (Treasuries, Percent)  Source: CBRT, Bloomberg. Were these policies effective? More time is needed to assess the ultimate impact, but the initial response is encouraging. Turkish lira, which has depreciated relative to peer currencies in the second half of 2016, has stabilized after the policy tightening, partly containing the upside risks on the inflation outlook (Figure 15). Figure 15.

2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  ** Since we are in Berlin, allow me to conclude with a European perspective: Europe has not developed global social networks like some important countries. This raises the stakes for the European authorities, if they want a stronger, more autonomous and more innovative European financial sector, to succeed in developing a coherent strategy. We do not have much time to decide this consistent European payment strategy, including EPI and a possible CBDC: one to two years. This makes our today’s discussion still more welcome. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
Throughout my whole first term of office I followed these principles, and today I would like again to state that my second term of office will be governed by the same principles. I have permitted no political interference in the activities of the Bank, which is a fundamental principle underlying the Law on the BNB and the Treaty on the accession of Bulgaria to the EU. I will not allow any political meddling in the work of the BNB in my next term of office. I highly appreciate the first words of the newly elected Speaker of the 41st National Assembly at our first meeting: „Mr. Iskrov, we are well aware of the Law on the BNB, of BNB’s key role for the financial stability in the country, and in spite of our disagreement with the early timing of your reelection, no one questions the independence of the central bank. This is a question of principle, on which there is no argument”. These were Ms. Tsacheva’s first words, and I am really grateful to her for them. BIS Review 104/2009  1  Independence should certainly not be an excuse for idleness or work not done. I would emphasise once again, just as I have so far worked with two Bulgarian Governments and all legitimate political parties and their representatives regardless of the political spectrum they belong to, so they too can count on BNB’s expert advice and support in the future.

I appeal for this decision to be made this week, if possible, for the sake of assuaging all concerns regarding BNB's governance. Ladies and Gentlemen, thank you very much for the confidence I’ve been given. Thank you for your attention. 2  BIS Review 104/2009