samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It is my personal opinion that the Fed has bought time for fiscal authorities to get their house in order, but four years later I am not sure we are much closer to that goal. It is true that Washington politicians stopped bickering long enough in December to pass a budget, the first budget in four years. And the projected budget deficit is just 3 percent of GDP this fiscal year, down from 4.1 percent in 2013 and 7 percent in 2012. After five years of outsized deficits, the U.S. is finally on par with Mexico, whose deficit throughout the recovery never exceeded 2.8 percent of GDP. You might think that agreeing on a budget means the U.S. government can go about its business, taxing and spending and keeping the monuments open to tourists. But in the U.S. we have another obstacle, the debt ceiling. This ritual battle, which we have fought at least 87 times since the end of World War II, does not address the underlying imbalances at the root of our fiscal situation. Nevertheless, we revisit it regularly and did so in February when Congress actually approved raising the debt ceiling without a big fight. Last time, you may recall, things did not go so smoothly. The stock markets wobbled, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued warnings, and one of the credit rating agencies downgraded U.S. government debt.

It has two functions. First, it expresses in a precise manner the strategy chosen by the Ministry. Second, it is a basis for comparison for the active management of the Fund. The benchmark index is a global securities portfolio, specified down to percentage holdings of individual securities. The equity allocation is probably the most important decision in the composition of the benchmark index. The Petroleum Fund bases its choice on the fact that equities yield a higher expected rate of return than fixed-income investments. Equities account for 40 per cent of the Petroleum Fund’s strategic benchmark portfolio, and fixedincome instruments account for 60 per cent. In 2003, the equity portion of the benchmark consisting of securities listed in Europe was 50 per cent and the remaining 50 per cent in the Americas, Asia and Oceania. The Petroleum Fund’s average ownership in listed companies has increased. At end-2003, the average ownership interest in European companies, where the share is highest, was close to 0.5 per cent. Macroeconomic policy in Norway rests on two pillars; •  The Storting issued formal guidelines to limit over time the annual use of petroleum revenues to the expected real return on the Fund - estimated at 4 per cent annually. That means that the government will not spend the capital itself - but only the return. In that way, the capital is saved for future generations. •  Monetary policy is aimed at ensuring low and stable inflation.
But there are also opposing forces in the foreign exchange market. The basic balance deficit suggests a weaker krone. If developments in the world economy translate into lower prices for oil and other export goods, the value of the krone may also fall. If the krone depreciates, the key rate must be raised to a higher level than otherwise in order to keep inflation in check, unless slackened activity in the Norwegian economy results in lower inflation. Over time, however, the nominal exchange rate is not the main force. The main determinant of competitiveness in Norwegian business and industry and the purchasing power of the Norwegian krone is the real exchange rate. 12  BIS Review 37/2008  The real exchange rate can be measured in a number of ways, for example by consumer prices or labour costs in Norway relative to our trading partners measured in a common currency. This provides an indication of the relationship between the level of external and domestic prices, which in turn reflects developments in cost levels. In real terms, the krone has appreciated by about 10 per cent since the mid-1990s, while labour costs in a common currency have risen by close to 30 per cent more than among our trading partners. This may be partly ascribable to the cyclical expansion and the low level of household saving. But most likely the strong real krone reflects the substantial improvement in the terms of trade and productivity.

In 2007, growth in the labour force was almost as strong as employment growth. The increase in the labour supply has been particularly sharp in the youngest and oldest age groups. 8  BIS Review 37/2008  One particular feature of this upturn has been high inward labour migration, accounting for almost half of the growth in the labour force in recent years. Most work permits have been given to nationals from Poland, Germany and Lithuania. Most foreign workers from the new EU countries probably intend to remain in Norway for some time. Although unemployment has fallen sharply, wage-earners’ share of value added has declined since the early 1990s, but has picked up lately. Solid productivity growth and high prices for export goods and goods supplied to the petroleum sector have boosted corporate earnings and reduced the wage share over the past few years. The ample supply of labour has probably also had a dampening effect on wage growth. Increased globalisation may have provided greater opportunities for Norwegian enterprises to relocate production to other countries if labour costs become too high. This probably places some restraint on wage demands among workers in sectors where enterprises have such opportunities. But wage-earners have also fared well. We have seen solid growth in employment, and low prices for imported goods have resulted in a subdued rise in consumer prices and a substantial increase in wage-earners’ real wages. There are now signs that productivity growth is edging down at the same time as wage growth is high.
16  2005  2015  2025  2035  2045  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 12 Projection of country share of world equity market capitalisation (2000–2050) 2000  China  2010  India  Other emerging G20  China  India  Other emerging G20  US  Other advanced G20  Non-G20  US  Other advanced G20  Non-G20  2020  2030  China  India  Other emerging G20  US  Other advanced G20  China  India  Other emerging G20  US  Other advanced G20  Non-G20  Non-G20  2040  2050  China  India  US  Other emerging G20  US  Non-G20  Other advanced G20  Non-G20  China  India  Other emerging G20 Other advanced G20  Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, GDP projections from Chart 7 and Bank calculations. Notes: Same basis as Chart 6.

Third, is the existence of overlapping jurisdictions affecting economic performance in the UK and elsewhere - in areas such as tax, competition policy, the regulation of mergers, patents, insolvency law, and recent changes to corporate governance? And can “economic cooperation” overcome some of these problems, and, if so, how? With those questions in mind, let me now introduce our four speakers this afternoon. First, Niall Fitzgerald, Chairman and CEO of Unilever, who has been instrumental in the recent relaunch of the Transatlantic Business Dialogue. Second, Donald Johnston, the Secretary-General of the OECD since 1996, who served in the Canadian Cabinet during the 1990s. The OECD is conducting a study to quantify the potential benefits of closer economic cooperation between the EU and US. Third, John Snow, the US Treasury Secretary, who will be joining us on a video link later in the session. Fourth, Gerrit Zalm, the vice Prime Minister of the Netherlands and Finance Minister since 1994. So, without further ado, let me turn to Niall Fitzgerald. BIS Review 6/2004  1
Gent Sejko: Albania’s banking sector progresses but four key challenges remain Address by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, to the third AAB Conference on Banks for Sustainable Development, Tirana, 14 May 2019. * * *  Your Excellency Madame Minister1, Dear Chairman of the Albanian Association of Banks, Dear representatives of the banking sector, dear guests, Let me first congratulate the Albanian Association of Banks on its 20th anniversary. The Association, which came into being as token of emancipation in the banking sector, has become now a genuine platform of communication and coordination within the banking industry, and a key player in the economic and financial life of the country. I would also like to congratulate the organisers for this event, which helps the banking sector, regulators and policymakers alike, to identify the challenges lying ahead and explore the best alternatives for addressing them. Dear ladies and gentlemen, The banking system in Albania has made considerable progress over the last two decades. To illustrate my point, I would like to bring to your attention some facts and figures. Over the span of two decades, the portfolio of bank credit has expanded significantly, leaping from 5% to 35% of the country’s GDP. Similarly, the volume of deposits – in other words, the volume of savings of the Albanian public administered by the banking sector – has grown from 45% to 70% of the GDP.

The improvement in access to finance, coupled with concrete initiatives to deep financial education of the population, with which it is in a complete symbiotic relationship, helps enterprises and households to capitalise their growth potential, by generating profit for themselves and gains for the economy. Lastly, modernisation and innovation should be an important and long-term priority of the banking sector. A constant evolution would provide the premises for a sector that is competitive and efficient and avant-garde with regard to technological development in Albania. Taking into account the insofar substantial impact of the banking sector on the advancement and diffusion of innovation to other sectors, this investment would be necessary and profitable to both the financial industry and the overall Albanian society. Forward looking, I remain confident that the banking sector will know to rise to these challenges 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  and that the conclusions of today’s conference will serve as another stepping stone in this regard. Thank You! 1 Ms. Anila Denaj, Minister of Finance and Economy  3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
In contrast, air fares, university accommodation fees, foreign students’ university tuition fees and payments by residents of nursing and retirement homes are excluded from the national index but included in the harmonised index. Year-on-year growth figures in April showed a difference of nearly one percentage point between the Bank of England’s index (RIPX) and the HICP. This index tied to the inflation target showed 2 per cent growth in the last 12 months, whereas the harmonised index showed an increase of 1.1 percentage point. Different treatment of housing costs pushed the national index up by more than ½ percentage point compared with the harmonised index. Different weighting methods accounted for a similar proportion of the increase. Different weights reduced 5 growth in the national index by nearly ¼ percentage point compared with the harmonised index. Predictability, transparency and communication Central banks control the volume of central bank liquidity or the interest rate on this liquidity. Most central banks use the interest rate on intra-day liquidity. In Norway, this is the interest rate on banks’ sight deposits with Norges Bank, the sight deposit rate. Banks’ net position vis-a-vis Norges Bank fluctuates around zero. By comparison, household and private sector domestic gross debt amounts to roughly NOK 1500 billion, whereas the total money supply is approximately NOK 750 billion. Our key rate has a direct influence on a very small portion of the total money and credit market.

MoneySENSE is also partnering the Association of Banks (ABS) to run talks on credit management, the Life Insurance Association (LIA) and General Insurance Association (GIA) to deliver seminars on insurance, and the Investment Management Association of Singapore (IMAS) and the Singapore Exchange (SGX) to present talks on the basics of personal investing. 20. You can also find a wide range of tools to for self-learning. For instance, the CPF Board has several online calculators to help you plan for your retirement and housing needs. MoneySENSE has worksheets to help you draw up your family budget and assess your debt commitments. There is also a MoneySENSE guidebook to explain commonly used terms in financial documents that you may encounter. Conclusion 21. I wish you an enjoyable time at the roadshow. Enjoy the activities. Most important of all, let's all use the tips and lessons we learn in your daily lives. BIS Review 30/2006  3
Tarisa Watanagase: What determines the future of the Thai economy? Speech by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the British Chamber of Commerce Luncheon Talk, Bangkok, 17 September 2008. *  *  *  Chairman Bain, Ladies and Gentlemen, I would like to thank Chairman Bain for inviting me once again to join this gathering of distinguished members and guests of the British Chamber of Commerce. I look forward to our annual get-together in this warm and friendly atmosphere and especially welcome the opportunity to update and exchange views on the Thai economy and its outlook. My talk today will cover three parts. First, I would like to focus on recent developments and prospects of the Thai economy in the near term. In the second part, I will share with you my perspectives on the important factors that I believe will determine the future of the Thai economy. To close, I will touch on the preparations that we should be making for the future of the Thai economy, focusing particularly on the central bank’s role in achieving price stability to support long-term growth. Ladies and Gentlemen, Notwithstanding news headlines, most of us are aware that the overall economic atmosphere continues to be business-as-usual. Nevertheless, the current tension and ongoing uncertainty on the Thai political scene has posed worries for some investors on the prospects of the Thai economy for the rest of 2008 and 2009. Confidence has already weakened somewhat on both consumer and business ends.

Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: Address – Ministerial Dialogue on the Economic Reform Programmes of the Candidate Countries Speech (via video conference) by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, at the Ministerial Dialogue on the Economic Reform Programmes of the Candidate Countries, Brussels-Skopje, 12 July 2021. *** Dear Ministers, representatives of the European Commission, the ECB and Eurostat, It is a great pleasure to be part of this dialogue. It serves as a foundation for important multilateral discussions and accentuates our mutual consensus on the importance of candidate countries to become fully fledged member states. It is for the second time that we meet virtually, an unambiguous reminder that the storm is not over, but fortunately, we are navigating through it on a stronger footing and with greater knowledge than it was the case a year ago. The flattening of the health curve globally inevitably prompted flattening of the recession curve as well. Similar is the state of the Macedonian economy, which has been heading for a recovery. The fast restoration of the global supply chains provided strong and fast impetus to the export sector. Despite the worries for lasting scarring on consumption due to risk aversion and worries on contagion, as the containment measures were lifted, consumers adjusted their behavior swiftly and boosted demand. The recovery has been underpinned by strong, prolonged and well-coordinated accommodative macroeconomic policy mix.
The labour market and household consumption are showing stable development and companies are still making good profits. We also know that US households and companies generally have strong balance sheets. But although most indications are that the economic downturn will be mild, there are risks of a more pronounced slowdown. From a Swedish perspective, the weakening in the United States is counterbalanced by the fact that the economies in the euro area are now developing better than they have done in a long time. The euro area is Sweden’s most important export market. We are seeing signs that both households and companies in the euro area have a more positive outlook on the future. Above all, it is the turnaround in Germany – Europe’s largest economy – that is important to the euro area. Several years of restructuring in German companies has led to lower costs and higher competitiveness. Unlike many other countries in Europe, Germany has taken a larger percentage of world trade and is now once again the world’s largest exporter. Japan has long been struggling with economic problems. Hopefully the Japanese economy is now heading for better times. The economy is growing at a fairly good rate and investment and exports are increasing. At the same time, higher incomes provide scope for higher consumption. There are many indications that the long period of falling prices and wage cuts will soon be over. The impression is in any case that the Japanese economy is moving in the right direction.

The IMF does not only envisage risks of a poorer development than expected – it may also be worth pointing out that they also see the possibility of an even more positive development. The Riksbank’s overall assessment is that international economic activity will enter a calmer phase over the coming two years, but at the same time global economic developments are very good right now. Sweden: Continued strong economy leads to slightly higher inflation The situation in the Swedish economy is also good. Last year growth was over 4 per cent. For instance, strong global growth has meant that exports have developed strongly for several years. Domestic consumption is also increasing rapidly now, at the same time as employment is rising. But the slightly weaker international economic activity means that activity in Sweden will also be dampened somewhat in the coming years. Inflation is the Riksbank’s particular responsibility. The Riksbank’s objective is to maintain inflation at around 2 per cent a year. We measure inflation as a change in consumer prices. Last year inflation was over 1.4 per cent. Over the past twelve months the main contribution to the increase in the consumer price index, or CPI, came from increased interest costs. However, higher electricity prices, rents and food prices also contributed to the increase in price levels. Price reductions on post and telecommunications had a dampening effect on inflation, as did falling prices for computers, DVDs and TVs.
6  See, for instance, Giavazzi, F. and F.S. Mishkin (2006). 7  See, for instance, Giavazzi, F. and F.S. Mishkin (2006). 8  However, it is not possible to entirely rule out similar problems sometimes arising even when the central bank publishes its own forecast for the policy rate. If new information is received in connection with making a decision on the interest rate and this information changes the conditions for decision-making, the decision may be different from what might have been expected on the basis of the inflation forecasts (which have to be completed before the interest rate decision is made). 9  The advantages of the central banks publishing their own interest rate forecasts are discussed in more detail in, for instance, a number of essays presented at a conference organised by the Riksbank in June 2005. See in particular Archer, D. (2005), Faust, J. and E., Leeper (2005), Svensson, L.E.O., (2005) and Woodford, M., (2005). 10  See Goodhart, C., (2001) and Mishkin, F. S., (2004) for a detailed argument against central banks publishing their own interest rate forecasts. BIS Review 6/2007  3  this is not a simple matter. However, we Executive Board members have made the assessment that these problems are not in practice so great as to prevent us from agreeing on a path that a majority of the Executive Board members can support.

As Mario Draghi stressed, “there should be a good case for monetary policy”7 for the euro area as a whole: our policy cannot be designed according to the specific needs of some banks or jurisdictions. And secondly, we should look at the whole spectrum of possible tools, including various forms of LTRO, to decide about the recalibration of conditions and maturities. Regarding interest rates, I have often stressed in the past the usefulness but also the obvious limits of negative interest rates. Let me quote what I said as early as 2017: “they are difficult to accept by households and SMEs, and so impossible in practice to pass through to them”8. And thus they are believed by many, if maintained for too long, to weigh negatively on the profitability of financial intermediation with possible adverse consequences for the smooth transmission of monetary policy. Hence, if we had to use negative rates for a longer period than expected, we should study pragmatically how to contain their possible adverse effects on the bank transmission of our monetary policy. 3. Relentless efforts towards a stronger Europe Let me come back to the European spirit I pleaded for. Today, it is also an economic requirement: faced with the slowdown and the uncertainties, monetary policy cannot be the only game in town. This is a German worry I fully share with many others. But then, we need to push relentlessly for a strengthening of our Economic Union. The commitment of Mario Centeno, as Chairman of the Eurogroup, is essential.