Companies and importers may have preferred to observe changes in the exchange rate over time before changing their selling prices. After several expensive wage settlements and a short period of a strong krone had weakened profitability in the Norwegian business sector, the depreciation of the krone contributed to curbing the decline in activity and employment. The downturn was short-lived. Together with private consumption and fixed investment in the petroleum sector, traditional exports were an important factor underlying growth in the early stages of the recovery that started in the first half of 2003. Prices for many of our main export goods have risen as a result of strong growth in new markets. However, growth in Norway’s total exports excluding oil and gas is lower than import growth among our trading partners. Mainland fixed investment has gradually become an important driving force in the upturn. Investment has picked up in most industries and growth was stronger than expected towards the end of 2004. Norges Bank’s regional network has registered rising investment in all industries. Petroleum investment in particular appears to be growing at a faster pace than projected. This may continue to boost mainland output. In the last few years, household demand has been underpinned by low interest rates, high real wage growth and higher asset prices. According to preliminary national accounts figures, private consumption expanded by 4.3 per cent last year. House price inflation has slowed somewhat, but remains high. In 2004, housing starts were the highest in several years.

10 The preexisting capital buffers available in the banking system, globally and in Switzerland, played a key role in this regard. The continued credit flow, together with extensive public support measures, helped firms and households bridge their income and liquidity shortfalls. Hence, concerns that the economic shock from the pandemic would be amplified by banks scaling back their lending have not materialised. A qualitative survey launched by the SNB in 2020 shows in fact that loan rejection rates did not increase significantly, even in the most acute phase of the pandemic, and virtually no banks reported their own capital situation as a factor limiting credit supply. 11  Macroprudential policy beyond the pandemic We have seen so far that macroprudential policy can help to contain the build-up of vulnerabilities and strengthen banking sector resilience. The pandemic has moreover shown us that a well-capitalised banking sector can dampen the economic impact of shocks, contributing to a faster recovery. So where do we stand today? According to our monetary policy assessment last week, the global economic recovery is expected to continue, although somewhat subdued by the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine. At the same time however, financial system vulnerabilities are increasing. Several national authorities and international institutions have highlighted stretched valuations, in particular in real estate markets, and are pointing to high levels of corporate and sovereign indebtedness. Let me elaborate further, focusing on real estate markets. As we discussed earlier, these markets are mostly credit financed so that 9  Cf.