samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Third, as suggested by recent research by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) [1] , soft landings are more likely when the number of job vacancies is high and when policy tightening is front-loaded. These conditions seem to be in place, at least in the US economy. The bad scenario is a longer and deeper recession – a “hard landing”. What are the risks of this happening? First, as pointed out by the BIS, when private sector debt levels are high, monetary policy tightening can trigger feedback loops through financial institutions and markets that intensify the downturn. The BIS estimates that private debt service ratios in the advanced economies could rise sharply to pre-global financial crisis levels if policy rates were to increase by the same extent as the US Fed’s tightening in 20042006. [2] Second, labour supply may continue to remain weak. Labour force participation and non-resident labour flows may not fully recover to pre-pandemic levels. This means  continued labour market tightness and wage pressures, and therefore more aggressive policy tightening to stabilise inflation. Third, fresh supply disruptions from the war in Ukraine remain a key risk. A cessation of gas supplies to Europe will likely have strong knock-on effects on global energy prices. WHERE IS INFLATION HEADED IN THE MEDIUM TERM? The medium-term inflation outlook is likely to be “higher-for-longer” compared to the past decade of low and benign inflation. Global inflation averaged 3.8% per annum during the last two decades (2001-2020).

BIS Review 7/2007  1  Other strategies include the following: Improvements to public service •  addresses issues relating to public service and improve the delivery mechanism. About 15% of govt. revenue has been provided for administrative, regulatory and other services and improvements to the public service delivery programme to make it more responsive to public needs. In delivering public services the budget advocates to use e-governance structures which are speedier than the present rule based structures. •  promotes productivity and request public service to eliminate waste and duplication while encouraging to complete activities which have already begun by spending agencies before venturing into new areas. To further facilitate the completion of unfinished work, the budget enables the roll over of all unspent provisions of previous years to the ensuing year. •  addresses the welfare issues of selected community groups and measures to extend the safety nets. Reopening of closed factories and revival of failed businesses In the 2007 budget, the fiscal arm has been extended to promote the re-opening of closed factories, abandoned companies and business entrepreneurs which can be revived through provision of debt relief, 3 year tax holidays and an exemption from economic services tax for a period. The budget proposes to grant Rs. 2 bn. to Lankaputhra Development Bank which will provide equity or debt to such factories on the basis of solid restructuring plans. These efforts will also increase employment throughout the country.
We believe these policies would put Thailand on a strong foothold to serve as a regional connector to support closer economic integration. Last but not least, let me once again thank the FCCT for organizing this forum. The road ahead for the Thai economy indeed brings new opportunities as well as challenges, urging us to adjust ahead of the changing conditions. Being among policymakers, businesses, and journalists who gather here tonight, I hope we will continue to work together on the route to enhancing competitiveness and sustainable development of Thailand. Kob Khun Krub. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5

The most recent surveys show that expectations five years ahead are now at around 1.9 per cent a year. Inflation expectations two years ahead have been below those five years ahead ever since 2012. The most recent surveys show that expectations two years ahead are now at 1.3–1.4 per cent a year. Together with measurements five years ahead, the picture is that the credibility of the inflation target on the whole has increased thus far this year. Expansionary monetary policy to stimulate inflation The Riksbank’s aim is to bring the rate of inflation back towards the target of 2 per cent. Monetary policy is therefore very expansionary today in the sense that the Riksbank’s policy rate, the repo rate, has been cut in several stages and is currently at –0.25 per cent. The repo rate is expected to remain at this level at least until the second half of 2016. Furthermore, the Riksbank decided in February and March this year to purchase government bonds to a value of SEK 40 billion. The repo-rate cuts and bond purchases contribute to pushing down market rates. Figure 6 shows how the repo rate has developed since 2010. The purpose of cutting the repo rate and buying bonds is thus to bring up inflation. Lower interest rates contribute to increasing demand in the economy. It becomes more attractive for households to consume and for companies to invest. Higher demand also makes it possible for companies to raise their prices.
Stefan Ingves: Financial stability – where are we heading? Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, to the Swedish Bankers’ Association, Stockholm, 19 November 2009. *  *  *  The title of my speech today is “Financial stability – where are we heading?” Some people would no doubt answer this question, and perhaps with a certain amount of justification, by saying that we are moving backwards – back to a world in which the financial system in general and the banks in particular are constrained by additional regulations and restrictions. Those of us who have been around for a while have seen that there is a movement, a pendulum that swings backwards and forwards between more and less regulation, and right now the pendulum is swinging towards increased regulation. However, we are not moving back to the world we were in before the deregulation programmes of the 1980s. In this respect we are moving forward towards something new. Hopefully, we are heading for a more stable – and efficient – financial system. Today I will discuss a number of proposals for changes in the international regulation of banks. It is not yet clear which of these proposals will actually be implemented. It is therefore important that legislators and authorities now conduct a thorough analysis of the proposals that are under discussion in the international debate before we can decide which of them really need to be implemented.

In Sweden, the latter idea could be realised by allowing a risk-differentiated stability charge to reflect the higher systemic risk that a systemically-important bank entails. Another possibility that is being discussed is to ensure that systemically-important banks have sufficient capital by creating a debt instrument that is automatically converted into capital when capital adequacy falls below a certain level. During the bank crisis of the 1990s, I was in fact involved in designing such an instrument. 1 In this context, the form of the regulations that govern the handling of distressed banks is in fact quite important. If the regulations are ineffective the systemic risk, all else being equal, will be higher. The cost that should be internalised in the banks operations will then be unnecessarily high, which in turn will make financial services unnecessarily expensive. It is, in other words, very important to create an effective regulatory framework that makes it possible to take decisive action to handle distressed banks at an early stage in both Sweden and abroad. 1  The Swedish Bank Support Authority promised Föreningsbanken that the State would acquire preference shares if capital adequacy fell below 9 per cent. At the same time, the State was given the right to acquire shares if the capital fell below 8.5 per cent.
The Rt Hon Sir Edward George: The state of the UK economy and the Bank of England’s conduct of monetary policy Speech by The Rt Hon Sir Edward George, Governor of the Bank of England, at the Welsh Development Agency/Bank of England Dinner, Brangwyn Hall, Swansea, on 16 October 2001. *  *  *  Thank you, David for that kind introduction. And thank you, too, for agreeing to co-host this dinner in the Brangwyn Hall this evening. It gives me great pleasure to add my welcome - on behalf of the Court of the Bank of England - to all of our guests. We are grateful to you for joining us. I should like to say a few words this evening about the state of the economy, and in particular to account to you - as stakeholders - for the Bank's conduct of monetary policy. If you look back, since the recession of the early 1990s the UK has enjoyed 9 years of steady progress. Inflation over that period, on the Government's target measure, has averaged just 2.6% - and has been more stable than at any time in our history. Now some people think that's all we care about at the Bank of England - and we certainly do care about it - it is after all what we are paid for. But it is certainly not all we care about.

There is little reason that I can see to suppose that global growth will not recover to at least its earlier trend rate over the next 2-3 years once the immediate shock has been absorbed. But in the meantime, the UK cannot be wholly immune from a more pronounced or prolonged global slowdown in the short term than we had previously expected - if that is indeed what occurs - even though we are better placed than some others to withstand it. Inflationary pressures remain well contained. Domestic demand appears to have been sustained into the third quarter, underpinned by increasing government spending in line with the Chancellor's intentions and by the easing of monetary policy. And consumer confidence in this country - on most of the evidence - seems to be holding up well despite the terrorist attacks. While business confidence generally weakened further in the third quarter, it remains stronger in the services sectors than in manufacturing. And on the basis of last week's BCC survey - it is notable that confidence in the services sectors here in Wales actually increased quite strongly. No-one can know quite how things will turn out in the present climate of uncertainty. We cannot rule out a further slowdown here in the UK. But all-in-all I am still persuaded on the evidence that we will avoid the overall recession that is widely spoken of in the media - though it may be a bumpy ride for a time.
Up to now, monetary policy has remained accommodative to foster the growth momentum but the Monetary Policy Committee will be monitoring inflation developments closely, especially the second round effect of energy prices feeding through to core inflation. The aim is to prevent higher inflation from dampening the anticipated recovery of consumption and derailing the pick-up in investment. Indeed, the MPC has been holding the policy rate, in light of the fact that the growth recovery has remained on track and supported by fiscal policy, while closely following inflation developments. As the MPC meets next Wednesday 21 May, we will assess the latest data available and indicators on both growth and stability to decide on the appropriate stance of forward-looking monetary policy. Ladies and Gentlemen, Undoubtedly, the risks to global growth and inflation will not make macroeconomic management an easy task in the immediate term. But, I can reassure you that Thailand’s economy will maintain its resilience against potentially adverse developments, judging from the following four dimensions. First, policymakers today have sufficient room for maneuvering a flexible policy mix as a result of continued adherence to policy discipline. Our fiscal policy is not constrained by concern on public debt sustainability while monetary and exchange rate policies have room to safeguard economic stability and smooth out short-term fluctuations. Indeed, under the new Bank of Thailand Act, the Monetary Policy Committee will be charged with legal responsibility in the realm of both monetary policy target and exchange rate policy and management.

With regard to the length of the period of ERM II membership, in view of the varying degrees of convergence of the accession countries, limiting the duration of ERM II membership to the minimum permissible time to qualify for the adoption of the euro – that is, two years – may not be an optimal choice for all accession countries. Longer membership of ERM II may, in some cases, be helpful since it would allow accession countries to retain the exchange rate as an instrumental policy variable during the catching-up process. Indeed, this option has proven useful for most of the current euro area participants. Again, it is worthwhile to recall the examples of Greece, Portugal and Spain. In the case of Greece, the final revaluation of the drachma on 17 January 2000 took place at the request of Greece, with the agreement of the EU authorities, to support the country's efforts to preserve sustainable price stability and progress in real convergence without jeopardising the competitiveness of the economy. Portugal and Spain, which participated in the EMS/ERM for a longer period of time, also used the option of realigning the respective exchange rates of the escudo and the peseta at several points along the road towards entry into the euro area. Participation in ERM II should, therefore, not be seen as a mere “waiting room” prior to the adoption of the euro.
As it is actually typical for most central banks in the world, through the work of its museum, the National Bank has gradually established itself as an important cultural treasury of the numismatic cultural legacy of civilizations that existed in this region, thus giving its contribution to the enrichment of the Macedonian society with permanent and irreplaceable values; those without which common knowledge is doomed to poverty, without which we would not be able to recognize and understand the universal values of civilization that have been mounting for centuries in the long civilization pace of human existence. The National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, together with the National Institution Stobi, have decided to approach the Macedonian public exactly on May 18th – the International Museum Day, jointly organizing this important exhibition, where for the first time an extremely valuable cultural heritage is presented to the public. It includes 19 unique fresco-fragments from the inner walls of the Old Episcopal basilica in Stobi, dating from the 4th century BC, which the history of art considers an exclusivity of paramount importance, given that this kind of artistic creation is not present in the wider range of the European mainland. Within the exhibition, the curators from the National Institution Stobi enabled us to closely look at the details of the mosaic floors that decorated this building. In addition, part of the exhibition are also the unique fresco-details that adorned the baptistery, which is located next to the Basilica.

The exclusively crafted marble container also belongs to the baptistery, as part of its internal decoration, which, on its part, includes the famous mosaics with depictions of peacocks. Those were the peacocks that the artist Biljana Unkovska used when designing the layout of the modern Macedonian banknotes of ten Denars. Speaking of the ancient town of Stobi, besides the fact that it is really a constant inspiration for artistic creation, in the past it was a center with emphasized monetary production that took place more than 18 centuries ago. This exhibition is even more significant because of the generous support of the US Embassy in the Republic of Macedonia, which throughout the past years has enabled professional protection of these invaluable paintings, thanks to which they can now be publicly exhibited. The National Bank is honored by the given trust to host this exhibition, which I hope that over the next month will be an intriguing cultural event for the general public. I also hope that with  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  the support of the Ministry of Culture and of the other institutions of culture in Macedonia, also in the future we will have an opportunity to enrich the public life and the creative social pulse of the country’s cultural life.
Norwegian companies have also been able to be considerably bolder in undertaking new assignments and investments knowing that they can procure labour throughout Europe. In addition to increased labour inflows from Poland, Lithuania and other central European countries, we have long benefited from inflows of labour from Sweden. Many workers are on temporary assignment and their consumption is primarily concentrated in their home country. The Norwegian economy has seen a net capacity increase. Third, the Norwegian business sector has been quick to integrate information technology. This applies both to companies competing on international markets and those supplying goods and services to the domestic market. In comparison with other countries, it is particularly productivity gains in banks and other service sectors that stand out. Examples are automated processes and swifter payments in the financial industry and improved inventory and management systems in commerce and transport. In Norway, monetary policy is oriented towards low and stable inflation. The operational target is consumer price inflation of close to 2.5 per cent over time. We operate a flexible inflation targeting regime. Both variability in output and inflation are given weight in interest-rate setting. BIS Review 15/2007  3  A decline in import prices, ample supply of labour and high productivity growth have boosted the growth potential of the Norwegian economy and led to very low inflation. Against this background, it has been appropriate to stimulate demand for goods and services. We consider a normal real interest rate to be in the order 2½ to 3½ per cent.

Yes, as in the case of other negative supply shocks: Keeping inflation low and stable must be the overriding objective. And with regard to reducing emissions, keeping inflation low and stable is perhaps even more important, as this will help make changes in relative prices more visible. Concluding remarks Globalisation has so far given us the best of two worlds, high growth and low inflation. But looking ahead there might be challenges to both nominal and financial stability. 16  Kenneth S. Rogoff (2006, see footnote 8). BIS Review 14/2008  7  We must preserve a nominal anchor, even when times may become more difficult. History has shown us that low and stable inflation is the best contribution monetary policy can make to growth and macroeconomic stability. A new, globalised world does not change this paradigm. Financial stability is enhanced by “smart” regulations that provide the right incentives. It is important to encourage innovation and to avoid overregulation. We must expect losses to occur and the losses should be borne by investors and financial institutions themselves to the fullest extent possible. Some might argue that I am behind the curve and that I should rather be discussing the breakdown of the global financial system. George Soros has argued that “This is not a normal crisis, but an end of an era.” 17 I do not subscribe to this view, though I admit I might be proven wrong. I would rather regard the present turmoil as evidence of the self-correcting properties of our system.
The increased speed with which these technological advances enable market participants to respond to developments is opening the door to deeper analysis, significant efficiency gains and new business models. 9  https://www.bis.org/publ/mktc10.pdf 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  5  Such changes in technology inevitably also imply profound changes in the type of jobs, and skills, needed in the FX industry. Traditional manual execution roles, where traders place orders on behalf of customers or their own book, are disappearing fast – and with them the ‘boiler room’ trading environments they spawned. But as some roles disappear, others grow. The focus now is on exploiting creative ideas, knowledge of customer needs and risk management, strategic judgment and technological savvy to develop and maintain a competitive edge. And that is exactly the environment in which diverse teams are not only an advantage, they are a necessity – for all the reasons I stated a moment ago. The revenue-generating stars of the future will not be the big swingers of the past: McKinsey10 argue that half of the value-added in wholesale banking will be created by just 10% of the future workforce, but none of those roles sit on today’s senior teams. If technology and innovation are transforming the FX products of the future, they are also transforming the way people work.

But regulators cannot halt the advancement of technology just so that they are ready to regulate. In this situation, our challenge is to ensure that we keep pace with technology so that we are able to offer the required protection to all who access financial services using the new and unconventional payments systems. On our part, the Bank of Zambia shall focus its attention on the development of a robust regulatory framework that will address the key “hot button” issues of; 1. Prudential requirements; particularly those that relate to liquidity management and capital for infrastructure,  2. Consumer protection; with emphasis on disclosure of charges and confidentiality of customer information, and  3. Unfair trading practices particularly those related to monopolistic tendencies such as development of platform that are not compatible or not interoperable with platforms of other service providers. To strike a balance between a robust regulatory framework and the need for the framework not to hinder innovation and allow business to flourish, our efforts in establishing a robust  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  framework will therefore be anchored on five key or internationally accepted best practice principles. These are: 1. The need to identify the types of mobile payment platforms to be permitted;  2. The need for an efficient mobile payments infrastructure such as settlements systems;  3. The need to design rules to regulate the information communication technology platform which is itself rapidly evolving;  4. Consumer protection; and finally  5. The need for compliance monitoring.