samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
One of the most important things the EU can do in the period ahead is to say to all of the member states “You really must have the elementary regime that exists on the other side of the Atlantic”. That benchmark system enables us, the authorities, to take a distressed bank and transfer the deposits to another viable bank, transfer or sell the good assets, and put the bad assets into receivership or run off. Plainly this requires safeguards if it interferes with property rights. BIS Review 144/2010  1  So that’s the first proposition. I’ll now go on to talk about globally important, systemically important financial institutions (so-called SIFIs), where the issues are much harder, way more important and much more topical. But we should not lose sight of that vital first step. It is the foundation stone; and one that will help us to speak a common language on resolution. The second proposition is that we must, as a global community and as a European community, develop tools to be able to resolve the largest, most complex cross-border systemically important financial institutions. This is absolutely at the core of the work to address the problem of Too Big To Fail. And unless we make real progress with this problem, we won’t bring back into our financial system the market discipline on which capitalism relies.

Ardian Fullani: Overview of Albania’s latest economic and financial developments Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, on the Monetary Policy Decision-Making of the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council, Tirana, 27 February 2013. *  *  *  Today, on 27 February 2013, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania reviewed and approved the monthly Monetary Policy Report. Based on the latest monetary and economic developments in Albania, and following discussions on their future outlook, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged, at 3.75%. The Supervisory Council deems that the monetary conditions are adequate to comply with the medium-term inflation target, providing the necessary monetary stimulus to boost domestic demand. Let me now proceed with an overview of the economic developments and key issues discussed at today’s meeting. *** Annual inflation was 2.7% in January. Higher food prices were the major contributor, about 75%, to inflation formation. In this regard, unprocessed foods, which recorded double-digit growth rates, contributed the most to this formation. The prices of the other consumer basket items fluctuated narrowly, maintaining their low contribution to inflation. In the macroeconomic aspect, inflation was formed by the presence of spare production capacities, while supply-side shocks were absent. The slow growth of production costs and low profit margin for businesses were reflected in low core and headline inflation rates. In addition, the stable exchange rate, anchored inflation expectations and low monetary expansion contributed to maintaining price stability.
One explanation for this, common to all these countries, appears to be keener competition, which has led to high productivity growth. In the first round, heightened competition affects companies’ profit margins. But enterprises respond by reducing their costs. This occurs in part in the individual business, but subcontractors also come under pressure to reduce their prices and enhance efficiency. Increased competition therefore triggers higher productivity growth in the economy. Low inflation may thus be matched by higher productivity. Economic developments External cyclical developments and events are of considerable importance to developments in the Norwegian economy. In autumn 2003, activity in the global economy picked up from a very low level. After rising sharply for several quarters, economic growth in the US slowed in the second quarter of 2004. Economic growth has picked up from a low level in the euro area. Growth has also gained momentum in Sweden and the UK. Strong growth in the US and China exerted upward pressure on commodity prices in 2003 and into 2004. A number of central banks have increased interest rates. Interest rate increases are expected in a number of countries. Oil prices have also risen considerably during the summer. High oil prices constitute a risk factor with regard to developments in the global economy. In Norway, output growth has picked up after a growth pause in 2003.

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and cyclical developments Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at Sparebanken Sogn og Fjordane, Førde, 18 October 2004. The text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 22 September, Inflation Report 2/04 and on previous speeches. The references and the  charts in pdf-format can also be found on the website of the Norges Bank. *  *  *  Price stability, in the sense of low and stable inflation, is the objective of monetary policy in a number of countries. Historical experience from Norway and other countries has shown that high inflation has resulted in unstable output and employment. In addition, a fall in the price level will often accompany a period of decline. The first inflation target was introduced in New Zealand in 1990. Canada followed in 1991, the UK in 1992, and Sweden and Australia in 1993. In Norway, the government issued a regulation introducing an inflation target in 2001. Monetary policy in euro area countries and Switzerland is also aimed at price stability, even though this is not referred to as inflation targeting in these countries. Inflation targeting has proved to be particularly appropriate in very open small and medium-sized economies. Commodity exports play a particularly important role in several of the countries that were the first to introduce inflation targeting.
According to the present analysts’ consensus, growth differential between the two zones is to narrow this year and practically disappear next year. According to the IMF forecasts, growth should reach 3.2% in the US in 2001 compared to 3.0% in the euro zone. 2.2  Structural reforms which are underway in Europe are likely to permit a sustainable non-inflationary growth  The undertaking and speeding up of structural reforms is one of the conditions for a complete success of the euro. In this regard, the Lisbon European Council, held last 23 April, can be viewed as a further BIS Review 52/2000  4  important step towards the necessary medium term strategy for structural reforms in the Union. The labor market has become more flexible in the past few years in Europe. I would like to give a few examples of this evolution. In all countries, the number of people on fixed-term contracts has quickly increased; they counted for a large part of jobs created between 1995 and 1998 and the trend has continued since then. In many countries, fiscal measures (for instance reduction of non-wage costs) have given incentives to hire younger and less-skilled people (France, Italy, Spain and Germany). Another key change is the rapid growth in part-time employment, especially among women. While Europe has long had a strong tradition of economic regulation, it must be acknowledged that deregulation is well underway in most countries.

This present economic recovery is taking place in a sound economic environment. Inflation level remains under control even though the balance of risks to price stability has recently gone up: some pressures have resulted from recent oil price rises or may result from some capacity constraints that could be encountered in the course of next years. Needless to say that the Governing Council of the Eurosystem has been and will remain vigilant in order to secure our primary objective of price stability. Besides, the current account is slightly in surplus and fiscal deficits are, in the euro zone as a whole, on a downward trend. It is worth stressing that European economies have never been creating so many new jobs so fast. The past two years (1998 and 1999) have seen very rapid job growth (about +1.5% a year) and a very big decrease in unemployment. In France, the rise has been sharper since almost 900,000 new jobs were created by enterprises (excluding Government administration) from December 1996 to December 1999 i.e. +6.6% over three years. With the economic growth speeding up, we can expect a further drop in the unemployment rate which is presently below 10%. Due to this economic recovery, the growth differential between the US and the euro zone is progressively to disappear. This gap between the two economic zones in terms of economic growth has resulted in the past years from the lag between their economic cycles.
The importance of financial systems has indeed been highlighted during the recent global financial crisis in which markets without properly functioning financial systems were affected more severely than those that had a semblance of well functioning systems. Evidently, from the theme of your conference, “Integration of African Capital Markets through technology” we can see the importance the interrelationships of financial systems and other sectors of the economy. Ladies and Gentlemen, economists and market players have long recognized the importance of the financial system. During each financial crisis including the recent global financial crisis, we have increasingly heard that the financial system was one of the main causes of the crisis, and that the financial system needs to be reformed in order to resolve the crisis. Many of these discussions treat the financial system in isolation or link it superficially to the macro-economy, however to put these issues in perspective let us first look at the importance and limitations of financial markets. The importance and limitations of financial markets I would like to begin by discussing the role of the financial system and why it is different from other sectors of the economy. Individual entrepreneurs rarely have enough of their own capital to undertake investments themselves. Individual savers, without pooling their money, would not be able to take advantage of the potential increasing returns to scale of their investments, and would face a large degree of risk with little liquidity.

Norges Bank became a member of the NGFS in December 2018. The primary objective of this network is to create an arena for central banks and financial supervisors to exchange experiences and share best practices in developing environment and climate risk management in the financial sector. We consider this network to be an important meeting place to arrive at a well-considered understanding of the role and activities of central banks in this field. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
BIS Review 31/2003  1  Against this background of closely interacting national economies, mention should be made of the high dependence of the rest of the world on the US economy, which proved greater than expected, despite the fact that the results in the United States were not particularly buoyant. Such dependence is a cause for concern since the United States is, at the same time, the main source of growth for the rest of the world and the main raiser of savings on the international capital market, a situation that is hardly sustainable over the medium and long term. Moreover, the saving/investment mismatch in the United States has been heightened recently by the clearly expansionary bias of monetary and, above all, fiscal policy. In these circumstances, a swift correction of the US external deficit, while undoubtedly desirable in the medium and long run, might affect numerous other economies most adversely in the short term through causing a contraction in the external demand of these economies at a time at which their growth is rather low. A lesson to be drawn from this complex situation is that when international economic disequilibria increase and swell out of all proportion, there is a risk that their correction will be at the least timely moment and with significant costs in terms of growth and well-being. Last year the main economies adapted very differently to the above-mentioned shocks.

But Spanish companies must also set in train strategies enabling them to harness the opportunities of enlargement and to increase their presence in the new areas of the single market, channelling their foreign direct investment efforts in that direction. Financial aspects of the Spanish economy Some of the financial features of recent developments in the Spanish economy are of particular importance. As I have said, monetary and financial conditions remained generous in the Spanish economy and, in step with this, financing received by households and firms grew by around 14% last year. This increase, which far outpaced the average for the euro area countries, led to a fresh increase in the private sector’s debt ratios which, in a few short years, have attained the average levels for the euro area. Significantly, the ongoing resort by companies and, above all, by Spanish households to debt in order to finance higher investment and consumption levels is principally a reflection of the favourable impact on agents’ expectations of the new setting of macroeconomic stability, which provides for higher sustainable growth in income and employment. One of the clearest consequences of the recent trend of financial flows in the Spanish economy has been the contribution made to curbing the scope of the recent cyclical downturn in Spain. That has helped the private sector maintain buoyant expenditure on the basis not only of its current revenue but also of its expectations of future income.
In November we therefore reduced the repo rate in two steps from 4.10 to 3.60%. In December it was considered that both CPI and underlying inflation would be below the target in the coming one to two years. The downside risks were judged to predominate, mainly due to the uncertainty about the future course of international activity. The repo rate was reduced again, from 3.60 to 2.40%, accompanied by signals that no further interest rate adjustments would be made before the changeover to the new Executive Board. 1  BIS Review 111/1999  New statistics during the winter continued to show a weak international tendency. The Riksbank perceived a clear risk of this having negative effects on growth in Sweden, so that inflation prospects would also be affected. In February and March the new Executive Board therefore made two more repo rate cuts, from 3.60 to 2.90%. Improved prospects The mood swung as winter gave way to spring. The financial market unrest subsided, accompanied by the first signs that the development of activity was better than had been expected. At the monetary policy meeting on 22 April the Executive Board decided to keep the repo rate unchanged. A majority of the Board wanted to wait for a more comprehensive assessment of inflation prospects in connection with the June forecast before making any further interest rate adjustments. In the late spring and the summer it became clear that economic trends were more favourable than had been predicted earlier.

This is reserved for very special situations where financial stability may be threatened. Without financial institutions and financial markets that function smoothly, the effects of interest rate changes on inflation and employment will be unstable and uncertain. Low and stable inflation provides households and enterprises with a clear indication of changes in relative prices. This makes it easier for economic agents to make the right decisions and contributes to price stability in financial and property markets. Low and stable inflation therefore provides the best foundation for financial stability. The two objectives normally underpin each other. Previous financial crises in Norway From history, we know about a number of financial crises in Norway. During the time of the silver and gold standard prior to 1914, banking crises occurred relatively frequently and were mainly regional. This is an indication that banks at that time were small and locally anchored. Therefore, the crises did not spread through the banking system. Many Norwegian banks experienced liquidity and solvency problems in 1857 following the collapse of the US railroad industry, in 1864 in Oppland, in 1886 in Arendal and in Kristiania (now Oslo) in 1899-1905. The Norwegian author Alexander Kielland depicts the local financial bubble in Stavanger in the 1880s in his book Fortuna. There was a surge in credit growth and speculation in commercial bills that did not represent actual values. Speculation formed the basis for quick gains and it all ended in bankruptcies and banks that failed.
A relevant question for the Riksbank is whether there is a risk that the recent years’ increases in the prices of houses and notably tenant-owned apartments have been excessive and that consequently there are risks of a downward price correction. Our assessment so far is that the price increases can be explained by fundamental factors. Low interest rates, increased disposable income and a low supply of new housing coupled with high demand have pushed up prices. The number of new housing starts, which was 70 000 per year around 1990, today stands at 21 000. This is a recovery, however, compared with the mid-1990s when volumes were as low as 11 000. The background to this considerable decline compared with 15 years ago is regulatory changes rather than cyclical factors. Reduced interest subsidies, as well as deregulation and simplification of the government support system aimed at making the system more demand-driven, have resulted in consumers bearing a larger part of the costs of both the capital and production. So the price developments do not appear to be an expectations-driven “bubble”, i.e. a price situation brought about by private persons and households buying housing as investments with the primary aim of making a capital gain. That appears to be the situation in other countries, however, where it has become increasingly common to buy housing with a view to subsequently sub-letting it. Examples of  2  Financial Stability Report 2003:2, Figure 2:20.

The U.S. was not alone in this shortcoming, but given our position in the global financial system, we especially should have done better. We’ve taken important steps through new legislative mandates and a broader effort to rethink our regulatory and supervisory framework. In particular, systemically important banking organizations must now hold amounts of capital and liquidity that are better aligned with their risk profiles. Other changes have also been implemented, such as central clearing of standardized OTC derivatives contracts, that should make the global financial system more resilient and robust. Although this effort remains very much a work in progress, I think it will enable us to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past decade, and enable us to take a more proactive stance toward mitigating potential future vulnerabilities. Of course, we at the Fed are not alone here. Since the recent financial crisis, central banks worldwide have been engaged in a broad rethinking of how to better fulfill their mandates. Let me close with a final thought. The largest problems that countries create for others often emanate from getting policy wrong domestically. Recession or instability at home is often quickly exported abroad. Equally important, growth and stability abroad makes all our jobs at home easier. This illustrates the externalities in the work we all do, with more effective fulfillment of our domestic mandates helping to bring us collectively to a better place. Thank you for your kind attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
The skepticism about the services sector would have been spawned by the inability to store the products of the sector for future use which could be considered as a symbol of wealth of a nation. Hence, its growth over and above the growth of storable product sectors would make a country dependent on the rest of the world, specifically in times of wars, disturbances to international free movement of goods etc. The underlying argument is that, if a country is self-sufficient in all its requirements, it can manage its affairs even in the worst conditions. In contrast, a country dependent on others, will have to follow a complaisant foreign policy so as not to antagonize them. It does not enjoy the freedom which self-sufficient countries have in charting their domestic and foreign policies based on national ideologies. Raymond Lim, Singapore’s Minister for Transport and Second Minister for Foreign Affairs, referred to this limitation in the context of a country dependent on global 1 trade, as “……. not having the luxury of pursuing a foreign policy of abstract ideals”. It is, however, to be noted that such freedoms should not necessarily imply higher welfare. This is because the level of welfare of a country is dependent on the quantum of wealth created and the level of real consumption and quality of life of its people. Yet, the critiques of the services sector based growth have often voiced these concerns and labeled such growth as illusive.

•  China growing at 6% today adds $ billion of GDP compared to $ billion that a smaller China growing by 10% added 10 years ago. •  China contributed to more than one-third of world GDP growth last year, more than the combined contributions of the US, Europe and Japan. Addressing vulnerabilities Against this backdrop of moderating growth, China is also faced with the task of addressing vulnerabilities in its economy and financial system. The chief risk is leverage – both its level and its growth. •  According to the BIS, China’s credit-to-GDP ratio stands at around 250%, having risen by 100% points since end-2008. Nearly 70% of that increase is attributable to corporate debt. •  There are concerns that part of the corporate borrowing has been used to pay off existing loans, rather than being channelled towards productive activities. •  Many of the Chinese firms having difficulty servicing their debt are from the heavy industry sector facing excess capacity. China has the fiscal resources to backstop its financial sector’s liabilities and thereby stave off a systemic financial crisis. But the debt overhang will weigh on corporate investment and present a further headwind to growth. Indeed, with continuing producer price deflation, the real debt burden will keep rising, even as profitability falls. In a good scenario, the debt ratio stabilises at the current level, and then gradually declines as nominal GDP rises faster than credit; in other words, China grows out of its debt problem.