samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Needless to say, we have built up the relevant capacities and necessary know-how in this area. But the changes go much deeper. In simple terms, the growing importance of the exchange rate instrument has meant that the SNB has had to catch up rapidly with the structural changes that have taken place in the foreign exchange market in recent decades, especially in relation to the introduction of electronic trading. As you probably know, transactions on the spot and foreign exchange swap markets are now largely conducted on electronic platforms. Since 2010, we have been carrying out virtually all our foreign exchange transactions on such platforms. Electronic trading has made the foreign exchange market faster and more transparent. For instance, live streaming of prices enables market participants to precisely determine the price and the market conditions before a transaction is conducted. In order to take account of these changes, we use the latest techniques to carry out our transactions and implement our trading strategies. Electronic trading also brings advantages for the ex post analysis of transactions. For example, we are able to closely monitor individual foreign exchange transactions to gain insights into their effects and adapt our approach as necessary. Page 6/8  Overall, the foreign exchange market today is much more decentralised and the market participants far more heterogeneous than before. This means that the number and variety of market contacts required in order to understand the foreign exchange market and the demand for Swiss francs has also increased.

How do you view them as an alternative? A: I would prefer not to make any comments on the political situation in Greece. I do believe, however, that the appearance of protests in countries subject to financial assistance programmes [implemented by the Troika] is the reflection of the huge demands that have been placed on the population. Being in a democracy means that people have the right to voice their complaints. Yet it is also a warning to leaders that when an economy is undergoing reform, sharing responsibility and effort is key. It is key to both the economic efficiency and political sustainability of the reforms. Social protests are there to remind us that we cannot reform an economy by placing all the demands on workers and the most fragile parts of society. Q: Can the euro survive without debt mutualisation? A: The debate on the future of the euro should not be centred on instruments such as mutualisation. This is in my view the tail that wags the dog. The question to consider is to what extent we should share risk and sovereignty in order to make monetary union sustainable. Since the beginning of the crisis we have made a lot of progress in creating various instruments to establish effective solidarity within the euro area, as well as governance that establishes responsibility at a national level. The process is not yet completed.
Finally, with somewhat stronger growth of output, I expect inflation to gradually rise toward the Federal Open Market Committee’s objective of 2 percent as measured by the PCE deflator. This forecast is based on the projected gradual increase in the levels of resource utilization, which would lessen downward pressure on firms’ marginal costs and prices, a firming in global demand, and the continued upward pull exercised by stable inflation expectations on actual inflation. Underpinning the latter assumption is the broad stability of long-term inflation expectations across different financial and survey measures, combined with ongoing moderate growth of wages and unit labor costs, all of which are consistent with well-anchored inflation expectations. As mentioned above, the key development behind the firmer tone of consumer spending over the second half of 2013 is the significant strengthening in household balance sheets. One aspect of that improvement is that from mid-2008 through mid-2013, total household liabilities declined significantly after a period of quite rapid debt growth over the preceding decade. The reduction in household debt is an extremely rare event for the U.S. economy. In fact, this has been the only period of sustained declines in nominal household indebtedness over the period since the early 1950s. The household sector In the remainder of my remarks, I’d like to focus on the finding, made public in our most recent Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, that for the first time since 2008, households increased their borrowing on a year-over-year basis, at least in nominal terms.

Here we see that the share of new mortgage borrowing by applicants of all credit scores below the highest quartile declined, while that of the highest quartile increased from about 40 percent to 70 percent. This suggests that lenders were far more selective in their underwriting standards for mortgages than they had been in the period between 2000 and 2006. Many of these powerful forces of demand and supply that together led to the decline in household borrowing, and hence to the fall-off in resources available for consumption, have either diminished or slowly reversed as the economic recovery that began in 2009 has continued. First, equity values, which dropped 51% between October 2007 and March 2009, as measured by the S&P 500 index, have recovered significantly, rising by almost 140% percent through the end of 2013 Chart 8 (Stock Market Wealth also Fell Sharply, 2nd half). In addition, as seen in Chart 9 (House Prices Peaked and Fell Precipitously, 2nd half) house prices have finally begun to recover, and have been doing so on a broad geographical basis. House prices are up 21 percent since their nadir in 2011. This has helped restore owners’ equity in their homes Chart 10 (Result was a huge decline in Owners’ Equity in HH RE, 2nd half). In sum, as seen in Chart 11 (Household Net Worth), aggregate household wealth has recovered substantially as a percent of disposable income, albeit with a lesser contribution from housing and a greater contribution from corporate equities.
China is now a key part of both global and regional supply chains for the production of low-cost manufactured goods. China now produces 80% of the world’s photocopiers, 50% of the world’s textiles and 50% of the world’s computers. These developments will tap the labour of hundreds of millions of people who were previously effectively outside the global market place. They are also triggering urbanisation – and infrastructure investment – on a scale, and at a rate, which makes our own Industrial Revolution look sedate, even puny. The Chinese Government expects 300 million people to migrate from the countryside to urban areas over the next 20 years. China had no motorways in 1988, now it has 41,000 kms, second only to the US. It is adding the equivalent of the UK’s total power generating capacity every year. Beijing alone plans to build 15 new metro lines by 2020, to create a network larger than the London Underground. No surprise, then, that China consumed 50% of the world’s cement last year. Third, and more tentatively, there seems to have been an increase in the international mobility of labour. This is the area where the continuing, largely political, barriers to free movement are most apparent, and where, partly in consequence, it is hardest to assemble reliable information.

This interest we are witnessing in the financial sector is due to the favourable economic environment that has been created in the last seven years. During this period, the economy has performed relatively well as reflected in the overall macroeconomic stability, which has been underpinned by sustained positive growth rates in the real Gross Domestic Product averaging over 5% in the last five years. I do hope that Access Bank Zambia, will play a special role in taking this growth to an even higher level. In the financial sector, stability has continued to characterize the financial system with all banks being adequately capitalised and non-bank financial institutions performance being satisfactory. I am convinced that this stability, among other factors, will continue to contribute to the attraction of international investors such as Access Bank to invest in Zambia. It is my hope that with new entrants in the banking sector, the provision of financial services to the public will become more competitive both in terms of the variety of services offered, efficiency and pricing. The need for provision of affordable banking services to the majority of our people can not be ever emphasised. Such services will greatly benefit our people and contribute positively to poverty reduction in the country. As Access Bank ventures into full fledged business, I urge the bank’s management to devise strategies that will contribute to Government’s efforts of reducing the cost of borrowing and increasing the level of inclusiveness in the country.
4 My assessment is that risk premiums have been very low, and perhaps even negative, a view that is supported by a number of studies. 5 I think the recent surveys have probably provided a fairer indicator of monetary policy expectations than forward rates. This is not to say that conducting a survey of expectations is the ideal way to measure monetary policy expectations. 6 However, one advantage of surveys is that they constitute more direct and more robust measures of monetary policy expectations, as they are not affected by risk premiums, which have been more difficult to assess than usual recently. According to the Prospera survey, monetary policy expectations two years ahead were also below our repo-rate path during the autumn. However, the Prospera survey published after our repo rate decision shows that expectations of the reporate are now almost entirely in line with the Riksbank’s repo-rate path. However, we should not limit ourselves to forward rates and surveys when trying to determine monetary policy expectations. Interest rate forecasts made by other analysts and model forecasts that reflect historical links are also useful indicators of expectations. These indicators also support the assessment that forward rates have been lower than other measures of market expectations over the last six months. I have wanted to discuss this theme partly because it is current and relevant, and partly because it illustrates how we must adopt a stance in the course of our decision-making process even if clear and unequivocal background information is not available.

For example, an unfavourable scenario in which a burst asset bubble leads to a deflationary situation that is hard to overcome will be assigned greater importance than a high-inflation scenario. Experience from Japan in the 1990s illustrates this. Assessments of this type must be taken into account in the monetary policy decision. The moral of the story is that monetary policy cannot be reduced to a mechanical reading exercise. However well-prepared the material on which monetary policy decisions are based, there will always be complex and important aspects that policymakers must take a stance on. It is important that these aspects are discussed from several different perspectives. This is one reason why we have an Executive Board made up of economists with different backgrounds and expertise. It is beneficial and important for us to conduct a wide-ranging debate on monetary policy at the Riksbank and not just externally. I believe that it leads to better monetary policy decisions. 10  BIS central bankers’ speeches
2  BIS Review 115/2009  The financial crisis and the global economic recession have had a substantial impact on the Norwegian economy, and a range of measures have been implemented to mitigate the effects of the crisis. These measures prevented the liquidity crisis from developing into a solvency crisis in the banking sector and a crisis in the real economy in Norway. Norges Bank has supplied additional liquidity to banks and eased collateral requirements. The Bank has provided loans with longer maturities, used foreign exchange swaps for both USD and EUR to supply krone liquidity and provided loans to Norwegian banks in USD, which Norges Bank can now procure from the Federal Reserve. The key policy rate has been reduced by 4.50 percentage points since 15 October last year to 1.25 per cent. To facilitate banks’ funding, the government has given banks access to liquid government paper in exchange for mortgage-backed securities issued by the banks’ mortgage companies. The Government has also provided increased loans and guarantees to Norwegian export industries, and has raised lending limits for state banks. Folketrygdfondet (the Government Pension Fund – Norway) has also been permitted to increase its purchases of bonds. The authorities have arranged to supply risk capital to Norwegian banks through the Norwegian State Finance Fund to strengthen banks’ solidity. In order to curb the fall in activity in the Norwegian economy, government expenditure will increase by more than 10 per cent in 2009.

In summary, the political economy case for one person/one vote does not entail the equivalent of postal voting, which I believe would impair the quality of our discussions and so, probably, of our decisions. Communication of the Committee’s reaction function: whether to publish an expected path of Bank Rate Central bankers know that expectations matter. So they know that delivering their goals requires more than being able to set the overnight money market rate from one policy meeting to the next. It matters where agents – businesses, households, financial markets – expect the policy rate to be set in the future. More than that, it matters that agents have a broad understanding of how the monetary authority will react to unforeseen developments in the economy; their “reaction function”. That being so, some central banks have started publishing their expected future path of rates, or a range for the future path. This could have advantages. For example, absent a clear agreement and statement of the strategy being pursued by the Committee, differences amongst members about the monthly decision can occasionally stem from judgments about how the precise timing of Bank Rate changes would affect perceptions of the Committee’s future course and so monetary conditions. But in my book, there are two reasons for not publishing a planned policy path – both related to the political economy context in which the MPC operates.
The convenience of making foreign payments from Kwacha bank accounts has also been improved by introduction of new products. One such product is the VISA based electronic debit card where holders of such cards can access their kwacha balances from anywhere in the world where the card is accepted. This has not only reduced the need for people to carry huge amounts of foreign currency but also has made the kwacha a truly convertible currency. All these innovations have come about because of the relative stability of the exchange rate of the Kwacha against major currencies. Ladies and Gentlemen, in conclusion, I wish to emphasise that the role of the Bank of Zambia is to formulate and implement monetary and supervisory policies that will ensure price and financial system stability. We are committed to playing our part and will do all that is necessary to make an effective contribution to a stable macroeconomic environment. In this regard, I call upon all other stakeholders including Your Excellencies to promote and support these positive efforts in the countries of your accreditation. I hope you found my short presentation useful in understanding the conduct of monetary policy and the role that the Bank of Zambia plays. I thank you.

At the conclusion of discussions, the Supervisory Council concluded that the monetary conditions remain appropriate for meeting the medium-term inflation target and decided to leave the key interest rate unchanged at 5.25 %. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
This legislation included provisions requiring the 29 issuing banks to hold at least 40% of their banknotes in circulation in the form of currency metal. In other words, banknotes were a kind of cash substitute and did not qualify as legal instruments of payment. 7 Since banks did not gear their banknote issue to fluctuations in demand, there were regular bottlenecks in supply on days when large numbers of bills had to be paid. Our next leap in time takes us to the year 1950. By now, only Swiss coins and banknotes issued by the SNB were in circulation. The Confederation had transferred the exclusive right to issue banknotes to the SNB, which began business operations in 1907. Switzerland had been incorporated in the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system created in 1944, which was based on the US dollar as the lead currency – but ultimately on gold, since a fine ounce of gold was equivalent to precisely USD 35. However, for private individuals it had been impossible to exchange banknotes for gold at the SNB since 1936. 2  Paul Meier: Der Währungswirrwarr von der Helvetik bis zur Bundesverfassung, dissertation, Berne 1951, p. 60. 3  The true scale of the multiple currency confusion only became apparent 20 years later in connection with centralisation of the coinage system at federal level. At this point, in 1851 and 1852, following the introduction of the Swiss franc, the old types of domestic coins were collected.

Or, expressed in a different way, without the countryside uprising in the name of liberal ideas, 184 years ago, we might not have the SNB today. In my presentation, I will, for once, devote less attention to current monetary policy. Instead, I will examine the Swiss monetary system from a more long-term perspective. My aim is to show you the significance of sound money, and why it is a major pillar of our society. In this context, I will also take a critical look at four proposals to reform the monetary system. My reason for doing this is that interventions of this kind in an existing monetary order can have grave consequences for our country and the entire population. Talking of reform proposals: In the “Uster Memorial” document there is a demand which particularly appeals to me as a central banker, that, in the case of property charges such as tithes, it should be possible to transform them easily into mortgage claims whose interest level is appropriate. Appropriate interest rates or “appropriate monetary conditions”, as it is expressed in central bankers’ jargon – that is what modern monetary policy is all about. So you see that the demands made in Uster remain just as valid today.
As such they are to be welcomed. However, if not fully understood at the micro level and not fully taken into consideration at a macro level, they may imply some unexpected adverse implications in terms of market dynamics. 1.3. Several avenues are being explored to mitigate financial instability  Strengthening the continuing efforts aiming at market transparency is one of the main avenue for future action. Experience shows that uncertainty and incomplete information are determining factors in mimetic behaviour. One of the objectives of transparency is to better differentiate borrower creditworthiness. A key feature of mimetic behaviour is that all borrowers are ‘tarred with the same brush’. So when one firm or one business sector face difficulties, neighbouring businesses or sectors are treated in the same way regardless of their actual economic and financial situation. The same may apply between emerging market economies as we shall see later. A careful examination of financial supervision rules and regulation, accounting standards, codes of good conducts, market practices and financial engineering seems also necessary to better understand their possible impact on market dynamics. There is a major public interest in trying to identify the elements that are pro-cyclical and those which are anti-cyclical. Financial authorities and market participants should commit to mitigate progressively, or possibly suppress, those elements of standards, regulations or financial techniques that are strongly pro-cyclical and, in the meantime, to reinforce the elements that could potentially counter the boom-bust tendencies.

Combined with high productivity growth, this has resulted in high corporate earnings and solid growth in employment. At the same time, wage-earners share of corporate value added has been reduced, from around 75 per cent at the end of the 1980s to 70 per cent at the end of the 1990s, and now  BIS Review 121/2007  1  stands at below 65 per cent. Solid productivity growth and high prices for export goods and deliveries to the petroleum sector have contributed to the reduction in the wage share over the past few years. The ample supply of labour has probably had a dampening effect on wage growth. Increased globalisation may have provided greater opportunities for Norwegian enterprises to relocate production to other countries if labour costs become too high. This probably places some restraint on wage demands among workers in sectors where enterprises have such opportunities. Historically, a high wage share has tended to be accompanied by low unemployment. Developments in recent years have provided the basis for strong growth in employment while the wage share has fallen. Is it possible to sustain the combination of low unemployment and a low wage share? First, it partly depends on whether the positive supply-side conditions are sustained. There is probably symmetry here. Should the terms of trade deteriorate, productivity growth slacken and foreign workers return to their home country, the wage share will increase, profits fall and unemployment increase. There is now a prospect of slower global growth.