samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In terms of monetary policy, this strategy is less dependent on the accuracy of the forecasts; instead it is a case of committing oneself to not deviating from the interest-rate development one has indicated. But Odyssean forward guidance also has its problems. Binding oneself to a particular monetary policy no matter what may on the one hand indicate strong determination and thereby have an effect on expectations. But on the other hand, such a policy may appear obstinate and unrealistic. If events occur that cause the policy to appear as inappropriate or directly harmful, it will be difficult to implement it. 13 And once one has deviated from a strategy which one has firmly undertaken to follow, one will hardly appear credible when trying to apply it the next time. When applying a makeup strategy, a less strict Odyssean forward guidance might mean that the central bank – in accordance with predetermined and clarified principles – makes it clear that it will hold the policy rate at the lower bound until inflation, or perhaps some measure of the development of the real economy, has  12 For more detailed analyses of the Riksbank’s experiences of publishing repo-rate forecasts, see Sveriges Riks-  bank (2017a). 13 See, for instance, Bernanke (2003). 7 [24]  attained a particular level. In this case, one does not make an unconditional commitment but makes one’s behaviour depend on certain developments. 14  Purchases of financial assets?

Mugur Isrescu: nvestments in challenging times - how can Romanian firms thrive in the new context? Opening speech by Mr Mugur Isrescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the conference "Investments in challenging times: How can Romanian firms thrive in the new context? ", Bucharest, 16 March 2023. *** Vice-President Pavlova, Chief Economist Revoltella, Distinguished audience, Ladies and gentlemen, Welcome to this year's conference organized by the European Investment Bank in partnership with the National Bank of Romania, titled "Investments in challenging times: How can Romanian firms thrive in the new context?". I am glad that we are able to meet again at the National Bank of Romania, after 2 years in which we had to host this event exclusively on-line. Please allow me to extend a warm welcome to the EIB representatives that are joining us: Vice-President Pavlova, Chief Economist Revoltella and Ms. Tasan Zanin, Head of the EIB office in Bucharest, and to all our colleagues and guests that are with us today, in person or online. I commend EIB's continuous involvement and support in engaging with stakeholders in Romania through these valuable series of events. There is already a tradition, today's conference being the sixth we have co-organized and hosted. Romania and the European Investment Bank share a long and fruitful partnership that has resulted in projects in important sectors of our economy. I am certain we will be able to continue to build on this important partnership, tackling variable challenges and opportunities.
What matters most is for Board and management members to embrace not just the letter of the rules but the spirit of the rules, to take ownership of outcomes, and to internalise the essence of these rules in the ethos and practices of the organisation. Corporate governance in our financial institutions  BIS Review 51/2010  3  have improved over the years. We must continue this partnership between the authorities and the corporate sector to seek continual improvements in corporate governance which will underpin Singapore’s reputation as a trusted financial and business hub. Capability building 23. The other area for collaborative partnership is in building up the capabilities of financial industry professionals. Asia’s financial services industry is likely to grow rapidly. If this is not underpinned by an equally rapid growth of capabilities, whether it is in the front office or the mid-back office, we risk a major disruption ahead. It is essential that we act premptively to address this. 24. MAS has been working closely with the industry and with organisations such as the Institute of Banking and Finance (IBF) and the Workforce Development Agency (WDA) to increase the supply of skilled talent and to build professional capacity. It is heartening to see that the industry-led initiative in developing the Financial Industry Competency Standards or FICS for short is gaining traction, and despite the financial crisis, investment in training has not become an easy target for cost-cutting measures. 25. Such efforts should continue apace.

As global liquidity conditions are normalised – following the unprecedented easing of interest rates by major central banks – financial markets could experience bouts of volatility as a range of asset classes are repriced and this could impact negatively on various interest-sensitive industries. 5. In addition, the reform of the global financial system has to be carefully thought through, calibrated and sequenced. It is important that regulatory reforms do not become politicised, with a rush to adopt simple rules that seem to solve the problems. Specific measures, each of which is sensible, may collectively create unintended outcomes and stymie the nascent economic recovery. In this regard, the Basel Committee’s Quantitative Impact Studies will provide an important basis for us to take a more holistic view of the required changes. 6. So far, most of the discussions have been framed around the theme of “how do we prevent a similar crisis from happening again.” Clearly, we must look back and learn from the crisis. But we must not fight the last war. We must also look forward. In the years ahead, significant restructuring of the global economy is necessary. Hence, I believe a more fundamental question to frame the discussion is: “Given the economic changes and challenges ahead, how do we make the global financial system more resilient and at the same time supports economic restructuring and sustainable global growth?” 7. It is therefore critical to get the nexus between the financial system and the real economy right.
Examples include: • A more demanding framework for the capital, leverage, and liquidity of banks, prepared by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and known as the Basel III Accord since its initial exposition in 2010;  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  • Special regulatory treatment of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs), such as additional capital (or in the Basel jargon, “loss absorbency”) requirements; and • Additional disclosure obligations for banks. On the other hand, entities or activities that until 2008 were mostly outside of the scope of regulators were made subject to a comprehensive regulatory framework: • Over-The-Counter (OTC) Derivatives, • Executive compensation, • Credit rating agencies, • Hedge funds, “shadow banking” (i.e. entities and activities that are not regulated as banks, but present bank-like systemic risk profiles) and, more recently, • Financial benchmarks (following the detecting of fraud in the setting of LIBOR, the London Interbank Offered Rate, and other similar reference rates). All those initiatives that were envisaged by the G20 are translated into regulatory changes in US and Europe. In the US, Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (or known as Dodd-Frank Act) implements changes that, among other things, affect the oversight and supervision of financial institutions. The Dodd-Frank Act creates the Financial Stability Oversight Council to oversee financial institutions.

A further risk compensated by the risk premium derives from the expected volatility of an asset price during its lifespan. As monetary policy affects asset prices, it can also impact the expected volatility of asset prices and, in turn, again affect the risk premium. The link between the monetary policy instrument and any one financial market price is subtle and variable. Central banks would face an exceedingly difficult task if they had to rely on a single price to transmit monetary policy impulses to the real economy. The fact that monetary policy works simultaneously through several financial market prices reinforces the precision and the impact of monetary policy. So far, I have tried to outline how monetary policy impulses are transmitted to financial markets. The monetary policy instrument itself, typically a short-term interest rate, has only a limited impact on the real economy. Monetary policy works through its aggregate impact on financial markets. Monetary policy impacts financial markets mainly through expectations. Indeed, Michael Woodford (2004, p.16) argues that "for not only do expectations about policy matter, but, at least under current conditions, very little else matters". Expectations influence financial markets in two ways: first, directly via the yield curve, i.e. through expectations about the future evolution of the monetary policy instrument, and second, indirectly, via the expected effect of monetary policy on the real economy, which then feeds back to financial market prices. In practice, it is difficult to distinguish between direct and indirect effects.
We continue to take a close interest in both of these areas, but they have crowded out discussion of everything else in the barriers to growth area – so today I want to fill in the rest of the picture. Now remember: these regulatory thresholds are a direct result of decisions to exercise proportionality by exempting smaller firms from bits of regulation. So they are a good thing from a competition point of view. 1 The robot’s research, including code, is being published today. See: Amadxarif Z., Brookes J., Garbarino N., Patel R. and Walczak E. (2019), ‘The Language of Rules: Textual Complexity in Banking Reforms’, Bank of England Staff Working Paper. 2 My focus today is on deposit-takers, but there are also of course important competition questions for us to examine on the insurance side. 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  2  They also ensure that the regulation of different-sized firms is commensurate to the risks that they pose to the financial system, and are therefore sensible from a risk perspective as well as a competition one. But thresholds do create the “slope” issue: as firms grow, they come up against these thresholds and have to clamber over them. The key question for us is: does the design of these thresholds, and the way they come together across different bits of regulation, present unnecessary barriers to firms looking to climb the mountain? Have we created any unnecessarily perilous cliff-edges?

But a simpler regime, perhaps borrowing from the philosophy of recent moves in Switzerland and the US, could make small firms stronger and more competitive at the same time. This is an area where we may have more room to manoeuvre following Brexit. 9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  9  Action I’m worried that this may all sound rather theoretical to some of you, and some distance from the front line of providing banking services. So let’s come right back down to ground level and look at credit unions. Credit unions provide a vital service for their members, often acting as a backstop by allowing those members to access services they might find more difficult to get from banks and building societies. The sector plays an important role in many communities – particularly in Northern Ireland. Now credit unions, including those in Northern Ireland, may be relieved to hear that the hard-working PRA competition robot is not about to be unleashed upon them. As an aside, they may not know that they have been living with another of our robots for some time. A few years back some of our economists from the wider Bank of England teamed up with our credit union supervisors and found out that by using some different analytical techniques to study regulatory returns we could do a better job of predicting which credit unions would get into trouble next.9 This is highly relevant given we oversee around 440 credit unions with a team of 9 staff.
Finding and developing the right people, setting priorities and catalysing action are things that all leaders must do, but what ultimately most determines a leader’s effectiveness is who they are. III. Leadership Attributes In my view, there are four essential and universal attributes of leadership: 1. Ambition 2. Purpose 3. Clarity, and 4. Humility. 1. Ambition The first essential leadership trait is ambition. Not personal ambition but ambition for your organisation. 6 7  As quoted in Maxwell, J (2007) p.141 As quoted in Maxwell, J (2007) p. 230 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  When she was Vice Chancellor of Cambridge University, Alison Richard, would ask “Who will be ambitious on our behalf if we are not ambitious for ourselves? We cannot take Cambridge’s greatness for granted even after 800 years. We must tend it with care and energy, and ambition must translate into tasks.”  8  If this message applies to Cambridge, an institution that is 800 years old, it certainly applies to the Bank of England at a little more than three centuries, to Regent’s University at a little more than three decades, and the latest start-up in Silicon Roundabout at a little more than three months. 2. Purpose Ambition must be grounded in the purpose of the organisation. Purpose is what an organisation stands for; 9  why it does what it does; and what it should be trusted to deliver. Purpose is always broader than a simple bottom line.

At the Bank, we not only recruit widely but also encourage colleagues to collaborate across the organisation and spend time in different areas to develop the varied skills required of a modern central banker. 4  In large organisations, developing future leaders requires discipline. For example, Vittorio Colao, the CEO of Vodafone, reviews the company’s top 200 executives annually to assess performance, set development actions and manage those who are having difficulties. The Executive Committee at Vodafone then discusses the progress of a different subset of their leaders at each Executive Meeting, making the process transparent and rigorous. The Bank of England has adopted a similar approach. Developing the right people also requires a culture of inclusion that values diverse ideas, encourages open debate, and empowers people at all levels to take initiative. In a moment, I will come onto the steps the Bank of England is taking in these regards. Finally, for leaders, having the right people also means being able to draw on trusted outside perspectives such as an external advisory board or informal contacts with other leaders. I’m fortunate that in my role I can regularly share experiences with a wide range of leaders in diverse fields. Of these, the most important sounding boards are my fellow central bankers. In this circle of trust, we can have regular, frank discussions of issues we either don’t understand or that are particularly sensitive. The second critical thing that leaders do is to set the priorities for their organisation.
The next step would be for the HKMA to work with the banking industry and the fintech community to turn the findings and advice in the second whitepaper into a set of practical guidelines for the use of DLT in the banking sector in the future. Given the rapidly evolving nature of DLT, this is no easy task to undertake. We welcome comments and input from the stakeholders and stand ready to share the findings of our research and practical experience with our international peers. Conclusion 19. Ladies and gentlemen, now is an exciting time for financial innovation. Technology is a game changer for the future of banking, payment and other financial services. It will differentiate winners from losers. I am very pleased to share with you today the important progress made by Hong Kong in cross-border collaboration and the use of DLT applications. As I said in my speech last month, the transformation of our banking system to a new and higher level of Smart Banking is not just something that is nice to a have, it is a must! To stay relevant and ahead of the game in this new era, I am sure you will agree that the collaborative efforts and research developments that I just mentioned are the essential building blocks to facilitate financial innovation and prepare Hong Kong to advance to the new Smart Banking Era. 20.

There are two categories of awards, both of which are open to Shenzhen and Hong Kong-based regulated financial institutions. The first is for the use of fintech, while the second is for cross-border financial innovation. It is a prestigious award and I would encourage Hong Kong financial institutions to take part and showcase their achievements. The Director-General of OFDS will share with us more details about this exciting competition in the next session. Soft-landing scheme 11. The second initiative is a mutual referral system for fintech firms – this is sometimes called “soft-landing”. Under this programme, the OFDS will provide support to Hong Kong fintech firms that want to establish a presence in Shenzhen, perhaps with a view to using it as a springboard to tap into the enormous market of Mainland China. 12. To better utilise this valuable opportunity, we are working with our strategic partner, Cyberport, on the establishment of cross-border soft-landing facilities in Shenzhen. Such an arrangement would give qualified Hong Kong fintech firms access to the business support from OFDS, which would be helpful for these firms to expand their business to the Mainland. At the same time, Cyberport will leverage on this platform in Shenzhen to assist Mainland fintech companies to establish operations in Hong Kong. 13. Given the geographical proximity between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, I have no doubt that this collaboration will further enhance Hong Kong’s role as the springboard to help homegrown and overseas firms reaching out to the Mainland market. Talent development programme 14.
One source is empirical research on wage behaviour. This literature is best-developed in the area of unionisation. It suggests there is a clear wage premium associated with trade union membership, even once we take account of differences in workers’ skills, sectors and regions. 11  There are a number of possible reasons for this wage premium, including the greater bargaining power union membership confers. There are also a wide range of estimates of the scale of this wage premium. These appear to vary widely across different countries, regions and sectors. Nonetheless, estimates of the aggregate wage premium in the UK are typically centred in the range 10-15%. 12  There is evidence this wage  premium may have shrunk over time, perhaps reflecting diminished union membership or increased competition in the labour market. 13  And there is also evidence decreased unionisation may have made  wage-setting more dispersed and localised. 14  10  This is based on data from Reed on around 15 million advertised job vacancies between 2008 and 2016. There are various possible reasons for ‘self-employment’ being included within a job vacancy description. These may include reduced National Insurance contributions and increased flexibility over working hours. 11 Lewis (1986). 12 Bryson (2014). 13 Bryson (2014). 14 Gregg et al (2014).

An important feature of a comprehensive and welldeveloped financial infrastructure is the diversity of the players and institutions in the system that have been developed based on their distinctive capabilities and competitive advantage thus raising their performance level, valued added and contribution to overall growth and development. In addition, as part of the strategy to enhance our integration with the international financial system and to strengthen our inter-linkages with other economies, the liberalization of the Islamic banking industry has been brought forward to take place in 2004. The issuance of new Islamic banking licences to qualified foreign financial institutions will allow for the presence of foreign Islamic banking players to act as a bridge between Malaysia and other global Islamic financial markets and increase the potential to tap new markets and growth opportunities. It will also contribute to spur financial innovation as well as facilitate international trade and investment flows between Malaysia and the rest of the world. An important dimension of the financial infrastructure is a comprehensive and effective legal infrastructure for legal redress arising from Islamic financial transactions. The legal infrastructure needs to comprise both effective regulatory and substantive laws as well as appropriate adjudicative fora for parties to resolve disputes relating to Islamic financial transactions. This will instill confidence and promote the sound expansion of the Islamic financial industry.
There is an equally great risk that developments will be better than forecast as that developments will be worse than forecast. Previously I have mainly seen risks of poorer developments than in our main scenario. Downside risks primarily include two factors that could indicate a poorer development in the real economy. One is that the economic recovery abroad could take time, which would have negative effects on Swedish exports. The other is that the situation in the Baltic countries could deteriorate and cause larger loan losses for the Swedish banks than we have anticipated. This could indirectly dampen the recovery in the Swedish economy. Upside risks include the expansionary fiscal and monetary policy measures taken in most countries and which may lead to the international recovery taking place sooner than anticipated. This could also hasten the Swedish recovery by means of an increase in exports. The new information received during the summer also indicates a slightly stronger development in economic activity than we had assumed. One could interpret the recent signs of increased optimism to mean that the need to increase the repo rate will approach sooner. However, one should take into account the fact that resource utilisation is very low and will remain so during the forecast period (see Figure 23) and that our monetary policy task primarily concerns ensuring that inflation remains close to the target. At present it is difficult to see any indications that inflationary pressures are increasing.

But I will say that the speech of the President, if one reads it completely, it’s totally in line with the statement we had in Tallinn in our monetary policy meeting there; the speech that he also made at the European Parliament; and here it was along the same lines. He recalled that domestic drivers of inflation, measured by the underlying inflation, are still subdued, and that we need to be sure that when we get to inflation close to 2% it’s a durable situation and a self-sustained situation that can go on without the high degree of accommodation that we have now: so all these conditions, he reaffirmed them, and then talked precisely about the need to persist and about the need to be prudent in talking about premature withdrawal of stimulus. So in other words we are not closer to an exit, not even a baby step closer, with the forum here in Sintra? Constâncio: Well, we are not predicting what the Governing Council will do. We are not trying to do that. This is the assessment that we have been producing also as a result of monetary policy meetings of the Governing Council itself, like the more recent one we had. So it’s going along the same lines. Personally, I don’t see anything in the speech that would be different from, say, the previous two main interventions about monetary policy done by the President. Let us talk about one area of optimism, and that’s the political tailwind.