As a result, a growing number of places in the region have either recovered or are close to recovering the jobs that were lost during the Great Recession. More troubling, however, is that Puerto Rico’s economy remains exceptionally weak; activity and employment on the Island continue to decline. Our economists will elaborate on these trends this morning. Private for profit institutions in the higher education landscape The important role of post-secondary education is undeniable given the key role that human capital plays in economic growth. However, the higher education landscape comprises different types of post-secondary institutions that provide different educational experiences. One such group of institutions – private for-profit institutions – have progressively become more visible in the U.S. higher education market. For-profit institutions and their growth in the market for student loans and federal need-based aid is the subject of the special topic in today’s briefing. Analysis done here at the New York Fed reveals that enrollment in for-profit colleges showed explosive growth nationally during, and for some time after, the Great Recession. Interestingly, this growth in enrollment has leveled off perceptibly as the economic recovery has taken hold. These patterns suggest that workers who were displaced from their jobs during the Great Recession chose to enroll in two-year and less-than-two-year colleges, mostly in for-profits but also in public community colleges. Now, with improved labor market conditions, individuals have less reason to get a short-term degree or may have returned to the labor force. Stark patterns are also observed in the market for student loans.

Behind this incredible economic momentum are globalisation, investments, and supportive government policies, factors expected to continue to drive the region for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the Asian region is expected to grow at 5 percent per year through 2023, easily topping all other regions of the world. Robust regional economic development has benefitted Hong Kong, just as the services we provide as an International Financial Centre has benefitted the region. Hong Kong offers an excellent platform for global businesses and investors, governed by a well-established legal system, backed by a resilient banking sector, and supported by its geographic and cultural proximity to China. Our city has become a global leader in IPO fundraising, bond issuance, asset management, and renminbi products. In addition, innovation – both financial and technological – is a key policy priority and is at the heart of the city’s future plans. But underlying this promising trend for Asia is a number of challenges. The most important downside risk to our region at this juncture is the China-US trade war. Some negative spillover effects of the three rounds of tariffs have already been experienced by various Asian economies, as we have seen exports slowing in a number of economies. Here in Hong Kong re-export volumes destined for China or the US that are on the tariff lists fell in the fourth quarter of 2018. While we’re all hopeful that a resolution is on its way, we should also be prepared for further damage to businesses and confidence if the conflict continues to linger.