In addition, sufficient digital infrastructure should be put in place as it will considerably strengthen other modes of connectivity. The internet and mobile communication connectivity will radically change the ways in which businesses operate and people interact, as they drive productivity and efficiency of all sectors. It will also facilitate financial, transport and logistics services, as well as open door to knowledge sharing for people across the subregion. While digital technology is rapidly improving in some GMS countries, there remains large “digital divide” both within and between countries that should be narrowed. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The second aspect is trade and investment connectivity. Intra-regional trade and investment activities have continued to flourish, mainly thanks to complementarities among GMS economies. Many GMS countries have varied and abundant natural resources, young population and low labor costs, while the others can offer technological know-how and financing. With varying industry specializations, the diversity among GMS members has contributed to stronger regional supply chain network, and in the future should magnify national strengths towards a higher competiveness of the whole subregion. Amid thriving trade and investment, Thailand is well-positioned to serve the whole subregion, owing to our established legal framework, financing facility, infrastructure, logistics and IT capability. This can be seen by prospering business activities along the Thai border with other GMS countries. Last year, Thailand’s 25 border customs checkpoints with Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia registered impressive trade flows of more than 500 billion baht.

Compared with our June staff projections, the outlook has improved for 2021 and is broadly unchanged for 2022 and 2023. Inflation Inflation increased to 3.0 per cent in August. We expect inflation to rise further this autumn but to decline next year. This temporary upswing in inflation mainly reflects the strong increase in oil prices since around the middle of last year, the reversal of the temporary VAT reduction in Germany, delayed summer sales in 2020 and cost pressures that stem from temporary shortages of materials and equipment. In the course of 2022 these factors should ease or will fall out of the year-on-year inflation calculation. Underlying inflation pressures have edged up. As the economy recovers further, and supported by our monetary policy measures, we expect underlying inflation to rise over the medium term. This increase is expected to be only gradual, since it will take time for the economy to return to operating at full capacity, and therefore wages are expected to grow only moderately. Measures of longer-term inflation expectations have continued to increase, but these remain some distance from our two per cent target. The new staff projections foresee annual inflation at 2.2 per cent in 2021, 1.7 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 per cent in 2023, being revised up compared with the previous projections in June. Inflation excluding food and energy price inflation is projected to average 1.3 per cent in 2021, 1.4 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 per cent in 2023, also being revised up from the June projections.