samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Against an uncertain economic and political landscape, our vision should be to turn challenges into opportunities to sustain economic growth in the long term. Factors underpinning Malta’s remarkable resilience The Maltese economy has been vibrant, showing remarkable economic resilience in the face of the unstable economic environment elsewhere. In fact, the theme “Vibrant Malta” has been chosen for the European Cultural Days at the ECB in Frankfurt, which this year focus on Malta. Earlier this month, we launched a cultural programme aimed to enhance awareness of Malta’s cultural heritage. The theme reflects not only the current cultural scene but also our vibrant economy. Malta is the most open economy in the euro area, having exports and imports of goods and services each over 150% of GDP. Despite this challenging factor, the Maltese economy has managed to outperform its peers, with GDP growth consistently above that of the euro area average. A good perspective to this positive outcome is given in Chart 1, which is an update of a Chart I used in last year’s presentation; since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, Malta’s GDP increased by 18%, whereas that of Germany and the United Kingdom rose by just 5%, while that of the euro area as a whole contracted by 0.5%. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Chart 1: Real GDP growth by group of countries  Chart 2 shows the unemployment rate in the stressed and non-stressed euro area members and Malta since 2005.

In a recent report, the Malta Competition and Consumer Affairs Authority made a number of recommendations to address issues primarily related to price transparency, barriers to expansion and consumer mobility in view of improving competition and borrowing costs for SMEs. Bank charges on SME loans and charges for credit transfers need to be revised downwards to facilitate access to finance and also to encourage the use of electronic money, which would ultimately result in lower processing costs to banks. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Chart 9 – Credit growth to households and businesses  In keeping constant focus on maintaining competitiveness, the Government took a significant step by committing itself to set up the Malta Development Bank. Preparatory work on the establishment of the Bank is well advanced. The development bank will strengthen and diversify the local financial base and will contribute to economic growth by funding sectors and projects that are not catered for by commercial banks on their own. It will provide attractive wholesale financing and risk sharing facilities. It will be a powerful tool to bring to realisation more economically feasible projects. The delay in tackling non-performing loans (NPL) on the bank’s books is another factor that puts a drag on credit growth and reflects a dimension of credit risk that should be resolved. An efficient judiciary system that deals with insolvency cases in a timely and cost efficient manner facilitates credit risk management by bringing down the stock of NPLs.
The latest freefall in commodity prices – though largely the product of actual and potential supply increases – has reinforced concerns about the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  sluggishness of global demand. And a series of relatively small data disappointments for many major G20 economies have added to these worries. Necessary changes in the stance of monetary policy removed the complacent assumption that “all bad news is good news” (because it brought renewed stimulus) that many felt underpinned markets. And as I will discuss in a moment, several commentators are peddling the myth that monetary policy is “out of ammunition.” Is “the only game in town” over? As a consequence of these developments, investors are now re-considering whether the past seven years have been well spent. Has exceptional monetary policy merely bridged two low-growth equilibria? Or, even worse, has it been a pier, leaving the global economy facing a global liquidity trap? Can more time be purchased? If so, at what cost and, most importantly, how would that time be best spent? These are the questions we should address during China’s G20 Presidency. They must be met with a response that matches the ambition and pragmatism of our hosts across financial reform, monetary policy and structural initiatives. Recent market turbulence Since the start of the year, risk sentiment in financial markets has deteriorated sharply, stemming in large part from a renewed appreciation of weak medium-term global growth prospects accompanied by marked downside risks.

Unconventional monetary policy measures, including large-scale purchases of government securities, were necessary to deliver effective market rates negative enough to mitigate globally deficient demand. In the UK, forward guidance supplemented such measures, ensuring households and firms could be confident that interest rates would not be raised prematurely, helping to secure the nascent recovery. 4  See Rachel, L and Smith, T (2015), “Secular drivers of the global real interest rate”, Bank of England Working Paper No. 571. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  Central banks have also purchased other assets – in some cases using small-scale programmes to alleviate specific cases of market dysfunction, and, in others, larger ones to inject greater stimulus into the economy. By deploying a broad range of ammunition, the economy has been stimulated through a number of channels. Lower policy rates brought forward consumption to today from spending tomorrow – the real interest rate channel. The all-in costs of borrowing were lowered, boosting existing borrowers’ spending power – the cash flow channel. And lower funding costs for banks increased the availability of credit – the credit channel. Lower discount rates and portfolio balance effects supported asset prices – the wealth channel. Currencies’ values fell, boosting competitiveness – the exchange rate channel. And determined central bank action and forward guidance put a floor under inflation expectations and bolstered sentiment – the confidence channel. In this way, central bank actions combatted the worst global downturn since the Great Depression.
The repo rate had then been raised to 2 per cent, the highest level it reached before it was reduced again. The minutes of the monetary policy meeting show the Executive Board members’ view of the appropriate monetary policy in the years ahead. In Figure 1, the dotted blue line shows the future repo-rate path  3  See, for example, Svensson (2014). This counterfactual analysis has been presented in a number of essays, articles and blog entries. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  advocated by a majority of Executive Board members, while the dotted yellow line shows the path advocated by the two members who argued that monetary policy should be more expansionary. One of these, Lars Svensson, is the Riksbank’s most outspoken critic in recent times and also the originator of the counterfactual analysis I mentioned earlier. It is clear that opinions differed. But it is also clear that the differences concerned at what pace the repo rate should be raised and not that any member advocated that the repo rate should never have been raised after the crisis, but remained at 0.25 per cent. Of course, it would have been difficult at that time to advocate a large cut immediately or in the near future.

As a life-long central banker, I’m sure Governor Glenn Stevens can give us the broader perspective on this issue. 4. I sincerely hope that the common lessons learned from our experiences within the region will help us, and indeed other central banks, better manage the complexities of the global economy. 5. Before we hear from Governor Stevens, I wish to take this opportunity to thank all guests for joining us at this Policy Forum to mark the 70th anniversary of the Bank of Thailand. Many of you here have been an integral part of our policy progress over the past many years. On this note, may I propose a toast of appreciation to all of you and of hope that many of you will continue to support a common vision toward building further policy progress for the well-being of all Thais in years to come. 6. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1
The Eurosystem has made headway on the design of the digital euro, ii including through regular exchanges with consumer associations, merchants and financial players, and the testing of dedicated prototypes. iii To put it in a nutshell, the e-euro will be a digital banknote, or ‘Cash+’. Naturally, it will feature the same characteristics as existing cash. Notably, it will ensure privacy, iv with the offline functionality ensuring the highest level of confidentiality; it will be the safest of assets; thanks to its likely legal tender status v, it will be accepted everywhere across the euro area; and its basic functionalities will be free of charge for individuals. vi But ‘Cash+’, bringing significant advantages compared with banknotes: it will allow each and every one to use central bank money in e-commerce, in remote peer-to-peer payments, as well as for conditional payments. I think it’s our duty to build this capacity for our fellow citizens, but it will be their freedom to use it. The digital euro will offer European citizens an additional option in the way they make purchases and transactions, and they will determine the pace of its development, and its ‘market share’. A digital euro will not replace physical cash or other forms of money, and this brings me to this alleged ‘competition’ issue. Money is and will remain a public-private partnership For a long time now, money has been a public-private partnership.

Villeroy de Galhau, F., Anchors and catalysts: central banks’ dual role in innovation, speech, 27 September 2022 ii Three progress reports are publicly available on the ECB website, the third and latest of which was released on 24 April 2023 iii European central bank, Digital euro – Prototype summary and lessons learned, 26 May 2023 iv The Eurosystem will not know any details of any transaction v The European Commission’s legislative proposal on retail CBDC is expected on 28 June 2023 vi be it for account holding, payments or access to a mobile app vii Villeroy de Galhau, F., Big techs in finance: a bildungsroman that is far from over, speech, 9 February 2023 viii Panetta, F., A digital euro: widely available and easy to use, speech, 24 April 2023 i
Before rejoining the IMF, where he had previously worked for 15 years in the European Department and the Monetary and Financial Systems Department, he was the Director for Financial Stability, as well as for Supervision Policy within the DNB, position that enabled the creation of the respective departments within the National Bank of Romania. Last, but not least, he shares his financial supervision knowledge as a Professor at Nyenrode Business University. It is my pleasure to offer the floor to Mr. Hilbers and thank him once again for being here with us today. 2/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  His remarks will be followed by a recorded message from his World Bank counterpart, Executive Director Koen Davidse. Mr Davidse is a more recent, but also very good, friend of our country. With extensive knowledge in development policies, having worked with the United Nations and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, Mr. Davidse has constantly supported the efforts for structural reforms and strengthening Romania's institutions in. Unfortunately, he couldn't join us physically today, but he is with us virtually. Thank you! 3/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches

The wage growth rate influences inflation, unemployment and interest rates In the Riksbank’s most recent forecast, we estimate that hourly wages will increase by about 3.5 per cent per year in 2012 and 2013, and that this corresponds with underlying CPIF inflation of close to 2 per cent towards the end of the forecast period. At the same time, unemployment will only fall to just above 6 per cent at the end of the forecast period. The National Institute of Economic Research’s most recent report of wage formation, from May of this year, presents calculations of the impact of the size of wage increases on inflation and employment. These indicate that wage increases would have to be limited to about 3 per cent per year in 2012–2014 for unemployment to be sustainably decreased to 5 per cent, in accordance with the government’s ambitions. I assume that we will be hearing more about this later today. The Riksbank has made similar calculations that also indicate a connection between wage trends, inflation and unemployment. The basic mechanism in these calculations is that higher wage increases lead to increased costs for companies. If companies wish to retain profitability, they have to choose between raising their prices or decreasing their personnel costs by reducing employee numbers. The most likely scenario is that a combination of these measures will be adopted. Inflation will increase and employment will decrease.
Payment card reform framework  Over the past few years, Bank Negara Malaysia has undertaken various measures to encourage the use of e-payments as a means to enhance Malaysia’s economic efficiency, productivity and competitiveness. In 2015, we will be taking a significant step forward in this agenda with the implementation of the Payment Card Reform Framework. The Framework will provide a much more conducive environment for merchants to accept card payments through the wider deployment of terminals and lower cost structures. The Point-Of-Sale terminals have not been growing at the desired pace despite the high penetration of debit cards. There are only 8 terminals per 1,000 inhabitants in Malaysia compared to more than 20 terminals per 1,000 inhabitants in advanced countries. The growth rate of the Point-Of-Sale terminals in Malaysia have slowed down considerably from 14.6% in 2011 to 6.1% in 2012 and 3.2% in 2013, indicating a potential saturation of PointOf-Sale terminals among the higher tier merchants who can afford the current level of merchant fees charged by the financial institutions. The recent hikes in interchange fee, which is the fee payable between financial institutions in a payment card transaction, are likely to make payment card acceptance even more costly for merchants. Interchange fee forms a significant part of the fees paid by merchants for accepting payment cards. The continued indiscriminate increases in interchange fee would hinder the expansion of Point-Of-Sale terminals, especially among small merchants.

In 2013, our cash-in-circulation over GDP is 6% compared to only 2% to 4% in advanced countries. In terms of payment card usage, our payment card transaction per capita is relatively low, at only 13 transactions per capita in 2013. This is far below the level of payment card usage in the advanced countries with an average of more than 200 transactions per capita. It is also important to note that Malaysia has a higher proportion of credit card usage compared to debit card usage, with a ratio of 7 credit card transactions for every debit card transaction. In contrast, debit card usage is more prevalent in the advanced economies, at an average of 6 debit card transactions for every credit card transaction. The debit card is a more cost-effective payment instrument compared to the credit card. Greater use of debit cards would minimise the country’s retail payment cost and contribute to greater savings and efficiency. In this respect, the banking industry can play the important role of taking more proactive measures to widen the payment card acceptance infrastructure, and promote actively the usage of debit cards to the general public. It is a mutually beneficial relationship. Consumers can conduct their financial transactions in a safe, convenient and efficient manner while the banking industry can benefit through reduction in the cost of handling and managing cash. High potential for debit cards to displace cash in Malaysia Cash is an expensive payment instrument which imposes an unnecessary cost to the economy.
However, putting too much emphasis on regulations can also become a double-edged sword and hinder innovation and further development, should the pendulum swing the other way. To this end, it is rather pragmatic and sound policies that remain alert to developments in financial and asset markets, and strong macroeconomic fundamentals that are our best buffers. 8. It is trying times like these that remind us of how interconnected we are and how important it is for the IMF to continue to play its role effectively as the guardian of global economic and financial stability. In our view, the Fund’s role is determined by its mandate. The Fund cannot do what it was not built to do. For example, it is neither a regulator nor a central bank. As we see it, the Fund’s role is in analyzing and evaluating policies and its impact, facilitating dialogue and disseminating, both the warning signs and the lessons learnt, providing guidance and lessons learnt, forcefully where necessary. To this end, we see three areas where the Fund can be useful:  2  BIS Review 51/2008  •  The first is in providing policy guidance to individual members. Within its surveillance mandate, the Fund should be advising members what to do and how best to respond to the fallout from the crisis. •  The second is in the provision of appropriate financing instruments to ensure that members are able to ride out the turmoil. The recent market jitters are clear reminders of a still-fragile global financial system.

In other words, their use has been driven by purely economic and commercial motives. 17. The growing concerns over SWFs and various proposals to restrict either the mode of their investments or areas in which they might invest are signs of a worrying trend of rising investment protectionism, and pose a risk to international financial stability. We are  4  BIS Review 51/2008  sympathetic to concerns in recipient countries and acknowledge that these worries, if left unaddressed, would only increase protectionist sentiments. In our last meeting, the IMFC called on the IMF to play a role in identifying best practices for SWFs. We share the view that as a multilateral platform, the Fund could play a useful role in this area, by allowing issues to be discussed in an open and neutral manner. We welcome the inclusive, collaborative, and voluntary approach taken by the Fund. The principles should focus on governance, institutional arrangement, and transparency and be co-written by the SWFs and for the SWFs, hence would help increase ownership of the best practices, which is critical to its successful adoption. We also welcome the parallel work undertaken by the OECD in drawing up a similar set of guidelines for recipient countries to forestall the risk of protectionism. It is highly important that in drafting such guidelines, the standards for SWFs should not be more onerous than for other large institutional investors. Conclusion 18.
From our point of view, it is very positive that substantial resources are being invested in theoretical and empirical research in this area. Norges Bank will seek to contribute to this work and to the public debate. We must also be willing to consider adjusting the manner in which we carry out our analyses and communicate monetary policy as new knowledge becomes available. Let us now look at the concrete objectives of Norwegian monetary policy. A year and a half ago, the Storting and the Government adopted new guidelines for economic policy. According to its mandate, Norges Bank shall orient monetary policy towards maintaining low and stable inflation. The first paragraph presents an objective. The last paragraph states more specifically what Norges Bank is to do. 3  See, for example, Clarida, Richard, Jordi Gali and Mark Gertler (2000): “The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 44, no. 2, 195-222. 6  BIS Review 49/2002  The first sentence in the mandate refers to the value of the krone. Stability in the internal value of the krone implies that inflation must be low and stable. It is also a necessary precondition for stability in financial and property markets. The regulation also states that monetary policy shall be aimed at stability in the international value of the krone. The krone exchange rate fluctuates from day to day, from week to week, and from month to month. We have free international trade and free capital movements.

We must never become complacent and satisfied with the status quo, or else we will soon be overtaken and left behind. MAS will strive to create an environment where market forces, enterprise and innovation can thrive. We will stay abreast of market developments, and be sensitive to the needs of the industry, without compromising on supervisory standards. Our experience has shown that the two are not incompatible; indeed listening to industry players, without being overwhelmed by them, helps us to become better regulators and supervisors. I am grateful for the full support and cooperation which the industry has extended to MAS, and to me personally, over the years. I am also grateful to the staff of MAS, whose professionalism, dedication and hard work have enabled us to reorientate our approach and transform the financial sector smoothly and safely. MAS and the industry will need to continue to work together to realise the vision of a more dynamic, competitive and vibrant financial sector in Singapore. That is the ultimate test of the success of our efforts to grow the sector, and make Singapore a key financial hub in Asia. 6  BIS Review 39/2004