samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But even if we disregard the problems of debt deflation, it is a problem if inflation fluctuates in an unexpected manner. A stable and predictable development in prices gives a better functioning economy, where it is simpler to make well-founded long-term economic decisions. Wage formation deteriorates when inflation is too low Another area where problems may arise if inflation is too low is wage formation. Surprisingly low inflation means that real wages eventually prove to have become higher than was planned when the nominal wage agreements were signed. This sort of wage development would make companies less willing to employ and would ultimately contribute to higher unemployment.12  8  The reasoning on debt deflation goes back to Fisher (1933). 9  Of course, every debt is someone else’s asset, so one might perhaps think that the fall in demand should be compensated by increased demand from the lenders who benefit from the increase in real debt values. But assets can be held abroad or be concentrated to a few individuals whose demand is not particularly sensitive to changes in wealth. See Eggertsson and Krugman (2012) for an analysis of these mechanisms. 10  In the crisis countries in the euro area, on the other hand, high debt is a central element in the economic downturn. As Moghadam et al. (2014) note, there is a significant risk that low inflation in these countries may lead to an increase in the debt burden and to a deeper economic downturn. 11  Lars E.O.

A final word on central counterparties (CCP): I would like to acknowledge the valuable proposals recently made by the European Commission to insist that those CCPs whose activities are “super-systemic” for the EU market establish themselves in the European Union. They are a step in the right direction and represent the only viable mechanism to guarantee that European authorities and national central banks in particular, can control and manage the risks that CCPs are likely to pose to the financial stability of the European Union. Once the provisions on the resolution of CCPs have been finalised, the compensation framework within the EU will have been improved considerably. 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  * * * Let me conclude with a general remark that concerns the economy: we need a system to assess, ex post, the economic effects of the reforms. France fully supports the work of the FSB to develop a structured analytical framework, which Germany has rightly included in its priorities for its G20 presidency. Europe, and Germany and France in particular, now has a special duty to protect financial regulation – a regulation that is sensitive to risk, balanced in its treatment of banks and nonbanks and binds the entire international community. Generally, that is what we’ve been doing well since 2009, and it is what continues to inspire us. Thank you for your attention and I wish you an excellent conference. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
The reason why I attach such a special importance to this subject and put emphasis on this with similar expressions in almost all my speeches is to draw attention to the possible risks that the economic units may confront under the floating rate regime and increase awareness. Otherwise, the deterioration brought about by the mis-management of risk affects the economy as a whole. Dear Guests, When the course of the value of Turkish currency versus foreign currency from 2002 up to now is taken into account, it is observed that as long as tight monetary and fiscal policies are maintained; structural reforms are implemented, political stability is maintained and the decisiveness for macroeconomic stability is sustained; the basic tendency will be in favor of the appreciation of the Turkish currency. This is a process in which the Turkish currency is increasingly preferred for investment as in every robust economy although it is subject to occasional interruptions. Therefore, the value of the Turkish currency emerges as a clear consequence. Determination of the foreign exchange rates under the market conditions as a requisite of the floating exchange rate regime does not imply that the Bank shall not undertake any transactions in the foreign exchange markets. As it was also explained in detail in our announcement called “Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy for 2007”, the Central Bank undertakes transactions in the foreign exchange markets for two objectives.

In this respect, via ensuring the implementation of active policies to create employment and providing resources for new investments, the investment atmosphere should be improved by strengthening the relationship between the real and the financial sector. Additionally, educational policies oriented towards increasing the labor power compatible with the labor demand should be put into effect. Besides, having the unregistered employment registered, should be given priority because it leads to unfair competition and this necessitates decreasing the taxes and other burdens on employment gradually. Dear Guests, Finally, I wish to briefly mention current account deficit, which frequently occupies the agenda. Current account deficit is one of the sensitive points of the Turkish economy. With a retrospective look, we see that current account deficit grew faster in the periods when growth rate accelerated due to the structural peculiarities of the Turkish economy. The periods when the current account deficit  BIS Review 28/2007  7  decreased or surpluses were experienced have been the years in which the growth rate decreased or crises broke out. This structure shows us that the current account deficit bears a structural quality rather than a cyclical one. This process can be identified as followings: improvements recorded with respect to the macroeconomic stability decrease the general level of interest rates. This decline in interest rates increase consumption and investment demand and so the credit demand accordingly on the one hand; while leading to a decrease in domestic savings on the other.
The tighter the labour market is, the higher wage growth will be. Demand for goods and services determines to a great extent how tight the labour market will be. High levels of private and public consumption, investment and exports will sustain the demand for labour. When the supply of labour is limited, the competition for labour pushes up wages. A tight monetary policy stance with a high real interest rate will curb domestic demand. In many countries, low and stable consumer price inflation is the goal of monetary policy. Consequently, we can assume that imported price inflation will remain subdued. However, price inflation will nonetheless vary in pace with global economic developments. The krone exchange rate also plays an important role in determining import prices. A strong krone exchange rate will curb prices for imported goods, while a weak krone exchange rate will result in higher prices. When there is a rise in the interest rate in Norway and a widening differential between domestic and foreign interest rates, investments in NOK will increase, and the krone exchange rate will rise. Price inflation may vary considerably from month to month. This variation may be due to random or temporary conditions, such as fluctuations in electricity prices or petrol prices, or the effects of changes in real taxes. When we assess the interest rate, we disregard these effects. Statistics Norway has constructed an indicator for adjusted price inflation - CPI-ATE - which is the measure we use to examine the results of monetary policy performance.

With a four per cent return on the Petroleum Fund, the use of petroleum revenues will rise to almost five per cent of mainland GDP in 2010. The inflation target provides an anchor for expectations concerning future inflation and interest rates. The inflation target is set at 2½ per cent. Monetary policy affects the economy with a lag. The current level of inflation does not provide an adequate basis for determining the level at which interest rates should be set today. Our analyses indicate that a substantial share of the effects of an interest rate change will occur within two years. Two years is thus a reasonable time horizon for achieving the inflation target. Economic agents can act on the assumption that the inflation rate will be 2½ per cent. If it appears that inflation will be higher than 2½ per cent with unchanged interest rates, the interest rate will be increased. If it appears that inflation will be lower than 2½ per cent with unchanged interest rates, the interest rate will be reduced. There is symmetry here. It is equally important to avoid an inflation rate that is too low, as it is to avoid an inflation rate that is too high. The interest rate is the most important monetary policy instrument. It affects price inflation through two channels: demand for domestic goods and services and the krone exchange rate. Changes in labour costs influence the rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services.
China and India, fast becoming global economic powerhouses, offer immense opportunities for Asia and the world. 5. But we should not overlook Japan. It is, after all, still the second largest economy in the world. Japan is experiencing renewed vigour after more than a decade of economic stagnation and deflation. Earlier this month, I was in Tokyo for the Nomura Singapore Seminar. The political and business leaders I met exuded a strong sense of confidence that Japan has turned the corner and is firmly on the path of sustained growth. ASEAN is doing well 6. Prospects for Southeast Asia have improved. Despite the Bali bombings, regional economies remained stable. Unless there is an avian flu pandemic, we can expect ASEAN countries to grow at a steady 5% this year and next. 7. ASEAN has been deepening and quickening the pace of integration. ASEAN countries have agreed to form an economic community by 2020, with free flow of goods, services and investment. We are already seeing greater financial markets integration. The stock exchanges are exploring how to link up in terms of trading and benchmarking. The bond markets now have a regional index. The ASEAN sky will be freed up in a couple of years. Already, Low Cost Carriers have appeared on the scene. This will boost tourism. 8. ASEAN countries are crafting an ASEAN Charter. It is expected to be a visionary document that will chart the organisation's future direction. An Eminent Persons' Group (EPG) will be launched at the 11th ASEAN Summit next month.

News conference  Berne, 13 December 2018 Thomas Jordan  Introductory remarks by Thomas Jordan  Ladies and gentlemen It is a pleasure for me to welcome you to the Swiss National Bank’s news conference. I will begin by explaining our monetary policy decision and our assessment of the economic situation. I will then hand over to Fritz Zurbrügg, who will speak about developments in the area of financial stability. After that, Andréa Maechler will review the situation on the financial markets and will update you on the progress towards replacing Libor. Finally, we will – as ever – be pleased to take your questions. Monetary policy decision  Let me begin with our monetary policy decision and the inflation forecast. We are maintaining our expansionary monetary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits held by banks at the SNB is to remain at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is also unchanged at between −1.25% and –0.25%. We will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration. Since the monetary policy assessment of September 2018, the Swiss franc has depreciated slightly on a trade-weighted basis. This development is primarily due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The franc is virtually unchanged against the euro. Overall, the Swiss franc is still highly valued, and the situation on the foreign exchange market continues to be fragile.
Resource utilisation lower than normal The Riksbank’s RU indicator, standard deviation 2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2  -3  -3 96  98  00  02  04  06  08  10  Note. The Riksbank’s indicator for resource utilisation summarises information from surveys and labour market data. It is normalised so that the mean value is zero and the standard deviation is one. Source: The Riksbank  Fewer risks of high inflation The second risk relates to the rate of inflation. CPI inflation was high last year, which could have led to a substantial increase in inflation expectations and to excessive wage increases in the autumn round of collective bargaining. But this has not turned out to be the case, so far anyway. Long-term inflation expectations have declined and are now close to the inflation target of two per cent two and five years ahead. In addition, wage agreements have now been signed for large parts of the manufacturing industry. Providing that the new wage agreements for other sectors are in line with the norm set by the manufacturing industry, it appears that total wage increases this year will be around 3.5 per cent. This is actually a rather large wage increase given the fact that unemployment is relatively high, but not so large that it is likely to lead to any serious inflation risks.

I trust that in taking part in the competition you have been able to find out more about what we do at the ECB, why we do it, and how our monetary policy works. It seems obvious that you should know what we do at the ECB or what people do in their national central banks. But as a matter of fact, if you do polls, you would be surprised by the amount of confusion that people have. For example, lots of people, about one-third, think that central banks are like other banks, that they are by and large not very different from what other banks do. Now, you will be the selected category that will know that the ECB is a central bank and that central banks are different from banks. And even more importantly, through this exercise, you actually got to have, at a very young age, a European perspective. You understood what is still really missing from lots of people, who still think in terms of national borders. It is very important, of course, but it is not the only reality that we are living through. In fact, the European perspective becomes much more important as time passes. Why is that? Well, because there are many challenges that are in fact supranational by their very nature. That is to say, you can’t really respond to these challenges, and you can’t really address the problems at national level if they are supranational.
Another method of raising potential growth would be to invest so heavily that the productivity of the labour force increased sufficiently to allow one worker to support one pensioner in the future. Capacity for renewal To summarise, much has changed recently in the Swedish economy. The external framework is currently characterised by a substantial fiscal policy and monetary policy stability, which facilitates planning and decision-making for both households and companies. These fundamental conditions, together with a marked increase in openness to the world around us, give reason to believe in a continued favourable development in productivity. At the same time, one should remember that many markets in Sweden still show clear signs of poor competition. This involves considerable costs. I believe that the Swedish economy has considerable unutilised potential for stronger development if we concentrate on this, i.e. how we shall increase the "speed limit" in the economy. It is not enough to have good macroeconomic conditions; a policy for growth is concerned more with microeconomics than macroeconomics. It is a question of creating good incentives for individuals and people to behave in a rational social manner in their roles as economic agents. What is profitable and attractive behaviour for the individual should also be profitable for the whole. This takes me into the field of politics, which is not part of the Riksbank's responsibilities. However, this is a field where I have been very involved in my previous career roles.

It is not possible to avoid an international economic downturn entirely, but it is possible to prevent it from becoming too deep. In monetary policy it is also necessary to take into account what might happen further ahead if one conducts a very expansionary monetary policy over a long period of time. In particular the experiences of the years with low interest rates and rapid international growth prior to the current financial crisis indicate that one may also need to take into account the more longterm consequences of monetary policy and at what pace inflation should be brought back on target. There is also reason to take into account not only the total amount of spare resources in the economy, but also the composition of those resources. For an export-dependent country such as Sweden it is important, for instance, to take into account to what extent a large fall in exports could be replaced by other parts of demand through expansionary monetary policy and at what rate this could be done without inflation problems arising. Correspondingly, one may need to take into account the extent to which the labour supply will decline as a result of the depth and length of the recession when assessing what consequences a coming recovery may have for wage formation. The conclusion I draw from this is that it is important not to overestimate the available resources in the economy over the coming years.
Thanks to the development of new information and communication technologies, there has been an increase in trade in services, which - until recently - have been considered nontradable. The importance of the services sector in the economy should be stressed, as this sector constitutes a 70-percent share of the GDP in the developed economies. The whole accounting departments or customer support call centres outsourced are only some of the services that take advantage of new technologies. Some of those innovations have already become a permanent element of our reality: the possibility to purchase an airline ticket via the Internet, creation of inventory control systems in IT companies, a possibility to gather and process information on consumer behaviour. The aforementioned solutions embody the new forms of labour organisation and the development of new products and services, which are becoming increasingly common. Research by van Ark 29 indicates that the results of a comparison of the growth in labour productivity in the services sector in the USA and the EU-15 in the past 10 years are in favour of the USA. The advantage of the USA has resulted primarily from a higher labour productivity in retail and wholesale trade and in the financial services. Among the causes for the lower increase in labour productivity in the EU countries one should mention lower innovative capabilities of the European companies and a lack of reforms that could have forced the sector to take advantage of its potential.

There are still regulation barriers to business activity in Europe, which make it impossible to move freely across country borders 30 . New information transfer technologies create a possibility of central processing of information, which is why limiting of the capability to take advantage of this process results in lower economies of scale. Moreover, the development of road transport still faces regulatory barriers. Finally, cultural differences, which are a natural barrier in business activity, should be mentioned. While indicating the vital role of services in building a competitive edge of the American economy, we should also relate to EU solutions in the form of the so-called Services Directive, which has been recently adopted by the European Parliament. The basic objective of the directive, in its version proposed by the European Commission, is to create a single market for services covering the whole of the European Union and to abolish all the barriers that prevent or significantly hinder rendering services by entrepreneurs of a given country in other EU countries. However, the amendments introduced by the Parliament, which deleted the so-called “country of origin” clause, in principle allow maintaining the existing barriers, which will result in a more difficult and hampered process of increasing the effectiveness of the European companies, including their capability of taking advantage of offshoring. This is why, in the era of globalisation, all initiatives that increase the region’s investment attractiveness play a vital role.
This is part of a broader Capital Account Liberalization Master Plan aimed at facilitating and encouraging more outward investment by Thai residents in foreign assets. At the same time, we are mindful that financial sector development cannot be sustained without adequate attention to risk management. I should briefly mention here that we are moving steadily forward with Basel III implementation. The overall implication of this new regime is a shift in bank capital structure that should result in greater resilience to liquidity shocks and less pro-cyclicality. From a macro-prudential perspective, the new regime implies more pre-emptive policy actions and a greater mix of policy options. In this respect, there is a balance to be achieved. On the one hand, tighter regulatory structure and more active use of macroprudential policies may imply higher costs for banks. On the other hand, these costs, some of which can be offset through efficiency gains, represent a price worth paying for a safer and more stable financial system. In terms of implementation, the BOT is currently finalizing the national standards and time-frame for adoption. The Thai banking sector can expect the first draft of the Basel III capital regulatory framework and liquidity risk management guidelines to be available later this month, with an industry hearing in the second quarter to gather feedback. Ongoing monitoring will be supplemented by the conduct of a Quantitative Impact Study  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  semi-annually. This is to address any unintended consequences and maintain on-going communication and feedback with the industry.

Figure 1: Financial Services Value Chain  At present, the most significant changes are taking place at the front-end, where innovative payment service providers (PSPs) are providing new user interfaces for domestic retail and cross-border payment services through digital wallets or pre-funded eMoney. 8  Other aspects of the customer relationships are being opened up. For example, aggregators are providing customers with ready access to price comparison and switching services. This will increase further when aggregators gain access to banks’ Application Programme Interfaces (APIs). 9  These new entrants are capturing potentially invaluable customer data which can be used to target non-bank products and services. 10  8  For example, more than 80% of incumbent financial institutions thought their customers were already using FinTech companies to make payments whilst nearly 70% thought they were doing the same for fund transfer and around 60% for personal finance. Only 50% thought their customers were doing so for traditional deposits and savings. See PWC “Global FinTech Report” (2017). 9 The second Payment Services Directive (PSD2) will allow, conditional FCA authorisation and customer authority, non-banks to access customers’ bank account data. In the UK, the Competition and Markets Authority has required that the UK’s nine largest banks adopt an open banking standard for APIs by early 2018.