samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The May results of the SCE showed an increase of 29 basis points from April in the median of the individual means (see Slide 6) and this can also be examined by holding the sample constant using the panel structure. In this case we find an increase of 27 basis points from April and the distribution shifting to the right, although the statistical significance of the change is more marginal than the decline over the longer period.38 As can be seen in Slide 9 there is a wide dispersion in views about future inflation held by consumers.39 This sort of analysis highlights the value of the panel nature of the SCE in yielding more robust measures of expectations. Let me turn next to the surveys of market professionals conducted by the New York Fed. Probabilistic questions on the surveys of primary dealers and market participants Ahead of each meeting of the FOMC, the Trading Desk of the New York Fed asks a group of financial market participants, including both primary dealers and buy-side investors, to provide their views on a range of economic and financial indicators. The Desk has surveyed the primary dealers for over a decade, and since 2011 it has made the questions and results of the Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD) publicly available.40 Beginning in 2014, the Desk also launched the Survey of Market Participants (SMP), which solicits views from active investment decision makers, such as mutual, pension, and hedge fund managers as well as corporate treasurers.

The banking sector, which has its own unique history, and which, for obvious reasons, is subject to more supervision than perhaps any other sector of the economy, requires a particularly focused approach. The approach here is a simple but proactive one. The main policy objectives are to remove barriers to competition, such as the Interest Rate Rules, and to maintain a level playing field, particularly with regard to access to infrastructure. In addition to this proactive policy approach, there are two main subsidiary concerns. One of these is to watch out for signs of collusion or anti-competitive behaviour in the industry and to address these when they occur. I should note here that we do not see such signs at present, though we remain vigilant. The other is a general concern that the adjustments to fees and services, which form a necessary part of the competition and reallocation of resources resulting from deregulation, should not lead to the exclusion of certain groups in society from a basic level of banking services, and that they should be introduced in a transparent way. Again, I should make it clear that, despite the concerns expressed by a number of groups over the last few months, we believe that, in general, the banks are addressing this point. I should also add, for the avoidance of any doubt, that it is not the HKMA’s policy to regulate fees and charges. This is something that is left to the market.
Paul Fisher: Current issues in monetary policy Speech by Mr Paul Fisher, Executive Director for Markets and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, at the Global Borrowers and Investors Forum, London, 21 June 2011. *  *  *  I would like to thank Ronnie Driver for his help in preparing this speech. Monetary policy is currently a subject of great debate. More so than at any time since the start of the inflation targeting era nearly twenty years ago. That almost certainly reflects the hardships associated with the recession on the one hand and higher inflation on the other, with the resultant squeeze on real incomes affecting the vast majority of us. In this keynote address today, I want to assess some of the reasons why the current conjuncture is proving so difficult for achieving the inflation target. In summary, the nature of the shocks that have hit the economy mean that there is no easy path for monetary policy and the outlook for the economy is especially uncertain. The main message I want to get across, is that there is no magic solution to these challenges. The MPC are trying to set the best path back to the inflation target, but even the best path is an extremely uncomfortable one. Why has CPI inflation been so high recently? CPI inflation has been above its 2.0% target since December 2009, reaching 4½% in April and May 2011.

Even if we had had perfect foresight at the time, the MPC would have still been faced with the same choice – the adjustment in real wages was unavoidable. Of course if nominal wages start to rise in an attempt to offset that inevitable fall in standards of living, risking a wage-price spiral as the UK had in the seventies, then the MPC would be duty-bound to raise Bank Rate sooner to bring inflation back to target, regardless of any short-run pressures on output. Given the nature and timing of the shocks, I would argue that the best we can do with monetary policy is accept the initial impact and then to gently steer inflation back to target in the medium term. In the remainder of this speech, I want to consider how we come to make our judgments about that, month-by-month, and in particular, discuss the relative role of economic forecasts and human judgment. Monetary policy in practice The Bank has come in for a lot of criticism recently about its forecasting record. For a period now, CPI inflation has been significantly higher than the Bank had been previously expecting. And in 2010 Q4 and 2011 Q1, output growth disappointed relative to our central expectations. In this section, I want to dig a little deeper into the issues around models and forecasts. Step back for a second and consider what an economic model actually is and why it might be useful.
If the link between short-term interest rates and economic growth is reasonably clear, at least during stable monetary regimes, the cyclicality of longer-term bond yields is less so. In the data they’re essentially acyclical (none of the orange bars in Chart 5 is statistically distinguishable from zero). Nor is there any empirical correlation between bond yields and the level of government debt (Chart 6). Chart 5: No significant correlation between economic growth and changes in long-term bond yields  Based on GDP growth smoothed over 2-year periods, and changes in Bank Rate and consols / long-term government bond yields over 2 years. Sources: Thomas and Dimsdale (2017), Klovland (1994), Capie and Webber (1985), ONS, DMO, Bank of England, and Bank calculations. Chart 6: No relationship in long-term UK data between level and cost of government debt  Sources: Thomas and Dimsdale (2017), Capie and Webber (1985), Neal (1990), Klovland (1994), Odlyzko (2014), ONS, DMO and Bank of England. I don’t think we should be terribly surprised by this. As far as the link with economic growth is concerned, we should remember that bonds are long-term assets. Their yields will therefore depend more on expectations about how the economy behaves over the future than on what’s happening to growth right now. There may have been specific instances, when such things can be isolated in the data, in which positive demand shocks pushed up bond yields. Using the same pre-WWI British data, Barro (1987) finds that wartime spending by the government was associated with higher long-term interest rates.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 lost around 9% over the same period. Various factors contributed to the weak performance of European stocks. Economic momentum has weakened of late and corporate earnings growth remained below expectations in the third quarter overall. Moreover, currency turmoil in Turkey and the budget dispute between Italy and the EU weighed on Europe’s stock exchanges. In Switzerland, the SMI has managed to gain around 1% since mid-year. This  Page 1/5  Berne, 13 December 2018 Andréa M. Maechler  News conference  above-average showing was predominantly due to a strong performance in July, which in turn was mainly driven by positive corporate news in the pharmaceutical sector. On the interest rate markets the picture initially remained mixed due to uneven growth momentum in the major economic regions since mid-2018 (cf. chart 3). In the US, the Federal Reserve confirmed that it intended to maintain its policy of gradual interest rate rises. Against this backdrop, yields in the US continued to rise and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries hit a multi-year high at the beginning of November. This rise in yields receded again in response to another dip in risk sentiment at the beginning of December. Most recently, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries stood at almost 2.9% – close to the level recorded at the end of June. In Europe, on the other hand, yields have been more stable. Yield differentials between US and European government bonds thus also reached a multi-year high in November.
In particular, wages in the private sector rose by an average rate of 12.2% in 2022. Lastly, allow me to point out that progress was also recorded in 2022 in terms of improvement in the stability of both foreign and public sector's balance sheets. In more concrete terms, Albanian exports grew by 42% in 2022, driven by a growth in tourism income, which opened the way for the reduction in both the trade deficit and the current account deficit of the country. The latter dropped to 6% of GDP in 2022 from 7.8% of GDP in 2021. Along with the rapid increase in foreign direct investments and the stability of domestic financial markets, they paved the way for a strengthening of the lek exchange rate over the year. Also, the budget deficit of Albania, according to fiscal data, dropped to 3.7% of GDP in 2022 from 4.6% of GDP in 2021. Public debt was reduced to 64.6% of GDP in 2022 from 74.5% in 2021, while public debt was reduced to 64.6% of GDP from 74.5%. This improvement reflected both an increased effect of the nominal base of revenues and the fiscal consolidating stance implemented throughout 2022. Honourable Members of Parliament, The Bank of Albania is confident that the normalisation of monetary policy is the right monetary policy stance, in compliance with our legal obligations and for the purposes of safeguarding the macroeconomic balances of Albania and for the sustainable and longterm growth of society's welfare.

Fourth, the recommendations from the Committee of Experts of CoE on the Evaluation of Anti-Money Laundering Measures and the Financing of Terrorism –  5/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  MONEYVAL were implemented. As an integral part of the national plan in relation to Anti-Money Laundering Measures and the Financing of Terrorism, the Bank of Albania has fulfilled its responsibilities, improving the regulatory framework and strengthening the effectiveness of the oversight process. In addition, we have continued with on-site examinations on issues related to the prevention of money laundering, with a particular focus on issues related to the financing of terrorism and the implementation of international sanctions. Administrative measures have been taken on breaches which have been discovered. Fifth, the banking sector was rigorously monitored through on-site examinations and off-site analyses. Assessment of credit portfolio quality, assessment of operational risk, information technology risk, liquidity risk, governance systems risks as well as assessment of transparency with clients have been the focus of examinations. Entities which have been under monitoring - banks and non-bank financial institutions - follow a prudential approach related to risk management, and overall their activity is in compliance with the regulatory framework. Last, resolvability has been strengthened. In the capacity of Resolution Authority, the Bank of Albania has completed and communicated the resolution plans for all banks, including the resolution strategies of specific banks, the minimum requirements on financial assets needed for loss absorption and recapitalisation, as well as requirements for increasing resolvability.
Under the programme, examinations have been made mandatory to maintain continuing education standards of agents. ·  Guidelines dealing with unfair practices in insurance business have been introduced in April 2003 to provide a more comprehensive framework for the regulation of insurance market practices. Among other things, the Guidelines provide for enhanced disclosures to consumers, requirements for insurance to be sold on equitable terms and conditions, and specific restrictions against misrepresentation and unfair discrimination. ·  The Guidelines on Claims Settlement Practices introduced in 1995 have now been revised to incorporate new measures and improved market practices in claims handling, as well as the specification of minimum fraud control and risk management practices relevant to the claims process. ·  A minimum standard on product disclosure and transparency in the sale of medical and health insurance policies was issued in May 2003. The standard requires insurers and their intermediaries to provide sufficient details of the essential features of medical and health policies so that policyholders will understand the important provisions of the policies, in particular, with respect to premiums, benefits, exclusions and limitations under the policies. ·  A survey has also been commissioned to determine the level of consumer satisfaction with financial services, including insurance. The results of the survey will provide important input for the development of a service quality index for financial services that will serve as a benchmark for financial institutions to evaluate their service levels and identify areas for improvement.

In our efforts to promote a larger role for consumer activism, attention has also been directed at enhancing dispute resolution mechanisms for consumers to seek redress. Within the insurance sector, the Insurance Mediation Bureau established in 1992 constitutes the main avenue outside the court system for resolving disputes between policyholders and their insurers. To further enhance the role of the Insurance Mediation Bureau as a dispute resolution mechanism, an expanded scope for the Bureau involving higher limits for claims falling within its purview and the inclusion of third party claims is being considered. This will provide greater access to the Bureau for a wider spectrum of the insuring public. At the same time, efforts are also underway to merge the mediation bureaus of both the banking and insurance sectors into a single new Financial Mediation Bureau that will serve as a one-stop centre for the resolution of a broad range of retail consumer issues raised against the financial institutions that are regulated by the Central Bank. With effect from 1 June this year, we have also made it a requirement for all insurers and takaful operators to establish dedicated complaints units in their respective organizations. The experience has been that most complaints can be resolved in-house by the service providers themselves, in particular those complaints that involve delays in claims settlements due to institutional procedures, which generally comprise the bulk of public complaints.
The Ministry of Finance has been tasked with setting the level of the countercyclical capital buffer. Norges Bank has been tasked with preparing a basis for the buffer decision and providing advice to the Ministry of Finance regarding the level of the buffer. In preparing the basis for the buffer decision, Norges Bank will exchange information and assessments with Finanstilsynet. Since March of this year, Norges Bank has published an assessment of the need for a countercyclical capital buffer in the Monetary Policy Report in addition to its monetary policy assessment. Norges Bank will give its first advice on the level of the buffer to the Ministry of Finance in connection with the next Monetary Policy Report, to be published at the beginning of December. Text slide: Criteria for an appropriate countercyclical capital buffer In line with the purpose of the countercyclical capital buffer, Norges Bank has formulated three criteria for setting an appropriate buffer rate. The buffer should ensure that the resilience of banks is strengthened during an upturn. The buffer requirement should be viewed in the light of other requirements applying to banks, particularly when new requirements are introduced. One of the most important purposes of the capital buffer is to alleviate stress in the financial system. History shows that the foundation for banking crises is laid during upturns. When financial imbalances build up, this increases the likelihood of substantial losses in the entire banking system.

In my opinion, a balance must be sought between the structure of ownership of a credit institution in resolution and the origin of the public funds which may be used in the process, with home country fiscal authorities covering the majority of the proceeds, once the asset quality review has proven that host country supervision was carried out correctly and effectively. I hope that an appropriate solution will be found to this matter, the same as in the case of the concerns voiced by some non-euro area countries in the early stages of the Banking Union project. What I have in mind is the issue of the representation in the decision-making mechanisms and that of the contribution requirements in the event of their opting in the Banking Union. Both concerns have been addressed during the negotiations. Specifically, the unequal status of non-euro area countries in the single supervisory mechanism decision-making bodies – given their lack of representation in the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, even though they enjoy representation in the Supervisory Board – has been addressed by establishing a mediatory body which would intervene in case a decision of the Supervisory Board is overturned by the Governing Council. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Furthermore, the current decision-making setup of the Single Resolution Mechanism ensures equal treatment of the countries participating in the Banking Union, regardless of whether they are Eurozone countries or countries that have established “close cooperation”.
The spike in oil and commodity prices last year, which initially appeared as a supply shock at the individual country level, in fact represented economic overheating at the global scale, and domestic monetary policy tightening may not have been the most effective way to deal with this situation in the global context. In addition, at the present juncture, the unprecedented and contagious slowdown in each country’s economies as a result of global linkages means that monetary policy now needs to respond to the monetary policy stance in other countries. This has added an extra international dimension to policy making, in addition to previous considerations such as the impact via capital flows and trading partners’ economies. 4. Testing the limits of monetary policy under globalization  But what exactly are these changes that globalization has brought about to traditional monetary policy? And in particular, how have these changes affected central banks? The first aspect has been the challenge to the basis of our traditional monetary policy decision-making process. Traditional conduct of monetary policy would rely on the accuracy of our forecasts of the economy, of inflation dynamics, and of our understanding of how the economy works. With globalization, making accurate economic forecasts become more difficult. The recent economic cycle has demonstrated that shocks to the economy and the price level have been both rapid and frequent. This is most clearly demonstrated by the volatility in  2  BIS Review 33/2009  inflation in the past year.

One last point before I end, I believe that most of us now agree that central banks need to maintain financial stability in addition to price stability. Therefore, we also need to improve our understanding of the implications of globalization on financial stability, as well as the tools to conduct monetary policy in addition to the interest rate tool for stability purposes. 4  BIS Review 33/2009
Given the higher relative penalty given to holding sovereign bonds under the leverage ratio as opposed to the capital ratio, it is expected to increase the cost of banks’ repo, and reduce incentives for money market arbitrage and market making.2 Reduced incentives for arbitrage and market making in turn affect market liquidity and can lead to greater periods of uncertainty. Furthermore, since European banks are required to report average month-end positions, there are increasing signs of market stress at month-end dates. The leverage ratio contains provisions for netting of offsetting cash positions when they are with the same counterparty and settled through the same system. This has resulted in a much greater use of central counterparties (CCPs). The use of CCPs has been strongly supported by authorities and brings benefits in terms of smooth market functioning, as well as for individual institutions. Eurosystem contacts report a wide difference in the pricing of trades cleared bilaterally and those cleared through CCPs – sometimes in the tens of basis points. CCPs, however, are also important for repo markets for a different reason. The increased volume of derivative trades centrally cleared at CCPs due to new regulations such as EMIR, as well as sporadic bouts of volatility, means that those institutions tend to hold significant quantities of cash. Placing that cash as unsecured deposits would represent wrong-way risk for CCPs as the collapse of a significant financial institution would create significant market volatility at the same time as potentially the loss of some of the unsecured deposits.

Meanwhile, October's Economic Expectations Survey (EES) anticipates a one-year inflation of 6.3% and a two-year inflation of 3.9% (7.0% and 3.8% in September). Inflation insurance contracts have shown some increases in the last few weeks, consistent with the greater pressure implied by the rise in the exchange rate. As of December of this year, they expect the annual CPI increase to be around 12.7%, somewhat above what they expected at the beginning of last month. On other hand, breakeven inflation implicit in the fixed income market has declined in recent weeks. Activity and demand  August Imacec showed a null annual growth. Excluding mining activity, there was an annual increase of 1.3%, with a monthly rise of 0.7% in the seasonally adjusted series. This increase in the total Imacec contrasted with market expectations, which anticipated an annual drop in the indicator. It should be noted that sectors with a high impact on the dynamics of activity and demand, such as construction, industry and commerce, among others, continue to contract as expected. There are service sectors that show greater resilience. This is explained by specific factors, such as the low base of comparison in the provision of education services, the persistently greater dynamism of activities linked to business services, and the greater added value of energy generation, given the greater rainfall this year. On the demand side, the available indicators suggest that the adjustment of private consumption is taking place broadly in line with our forecasts.