samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Production line could be disrupted by flooding as we witnessed in 2011, natural disasters could affect logistics, and our popular beaches become more vulnerable to the rising sea level and changing weather patterns. Impact on agricultural sector Most concerning, perhaps, is the effect on the agricultural sector which is the source of employment for more than a third of our population. New types of plant and animal diseases could thrive in the warmer climate. Soil loss and land degradation through floods and land mismanagement could decrease crop yield. With only a fifth of our agricultural land having access to irrigation, severe draughts and floods pose serious risks to the Thai society. With most of the workforce earning low income, impacts on the agricultural sector is likely to affect those who are most vulnerable in the society. While being net exporters of agricultural products provide us some sense of food security, the agricultural sector—one of the least productive sectors in the economy—needs a complete overhaul to stay competitive amidst these challenges ahead. Adoption of agricultural technologies including data collection, precision farming, and resource-sharing platforms; development of plant and animal varieties 4  that are resilient to climate change and diseases; along with usage of closedenvironment production techniques would help raise productivity and resilience of the sector that many of us consider the backbone of our economy. Sustainable businesses The agricultural sector is not the only sector that needs to change.

Now it becomes more and more clear that these trends will be the major forces that will shape the landscape and structure of our economy, and the pace and degree of changes will be faster and larger than before. On one hand, these changes could become big threats to your businesses and the economy as a whole if we don’t adapt. On the other hand, if we embrace these changes and recognize the many opportunities that come with them, we could ride this wave of changes forward. In doing this, business model transformation and large structural reform policies are needed in order to increase both the productivity and resiliency of the Thai economy. Let me end my talk by saying once again that we will not know with certainty what the Thai economy will look like in 2025. The structure, competitiveness, and resilience of our economy five years from now will depend critically on how we address the five major trends. Thank you very much for your kind attention. 10
Indeed, anxiety can itself generate perceptions that events are beyond your control, contributing to fatalism about the future and excess levels of caution.7 Yet the risks facing individuals, businesses and the economy at present are, at least to some degree, within our control, collectively if not individually. All of these risks can be mitigated, if not eliminated entirely, by the actions of individuals, businesses and policymakers. 7  See Grupe and Nitschke (2013). 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  10  One safeguard against these risks comes from our individual actions when we socialise, shop and work. A further, collective, source of insurance comes from public policy – public health policy, fiscal policy and monetary policy. Extra-ordinary action has been taken on all three fronts during the Covid crisis to contain risks to the public, businesses and the economy. As importantly, it has been made clear that further action would be taken on all three fronts where risks to re-escalate. Taking the three largest risks in turn, on public health there has been a worrying rise in Covid cases across the UK recently. In response, a sequence of local lockdown measures have been put in place and last week these were accompanied by some tightening of national restrictions. While it is too early to judge what economic impact these measures will have, they are likely to restrain economic activity and slow growth. At the same time, it is important to put the likely impact of these measures in proportion.

A key question for many supervisors, and particularly for our colleagues in emerging market jurisdictions, is whether the New Accord represents the next step to take. The Committee’s view has always been that the fundamentals come first. It is only after a solid foundation for a sound banking and regulatory system is in place that anyone should contemplate the more sophisticated requirements of the New Accord. Over time, it is our hope that more and more countries will adopt the new framework, but not before they are ready. The better capitalised and the better managed that all banking systems are worldwide, the more resistant the global financial system will become to periods of distress. For this reason, the Committee developed a “simplest standardised approach” during the consultations leading up to CP3. This approach has been developed with the assistance of some of our non-G10 colleagues. More recently, we have developed guidance to assist non-G10 supervisors in making decisions about adoption of Basel II and to help them achieve the transition in the way best suited to their national circumstances. Emerging market supervisors have welcomed both the simplest standardised approach and the transition guidance. And we will do more in this regard. We are currently considering how we might best enhance and upgrade our structures for co-operation with non-G10 countries at the Committee level. BIS Review 42/2003  3  Accounting Standards and Basel II I would like to turn now to the third topic on my list.
Some of the more idealistic aspirations for Bretton Woods – such as the creation of an international central bank and new currency – were never likely to be adopted and look impossible absent a world government. But an arbiter of the international monetary system can play a more limited role – not so much the referee brandishing the yellow and red cards of the football pitch, more the cricket umpire warning the players not to attack each other verbally and making it clear publicly when they believe the players are not abiding with the spirit of the game. Invoking the MCC’s “spirit of cricket”, when a country knows that a policy such as an exchange rate regime requires modification, the player should walk. Indeed, the players might in time come to realise that most games benefit when played according to a clear and agreed set of rules. So although it is not an international central bank, and the SDR is not a currency, the IMF still has a role to play. Given that most systemically important countries allow their exchange rates to float, the Fund cannot have an independent remit for global monetary stability. Hence, the Fund’s role should be to support national policy makers by providing expert analysis about external risks to their domestic monetary policy objectives. National policies which appear sustainable in terms of countries’ own objectives may interact and, through the resulting balance sheet effects, create risks to those same countries further ahead.

These balance sheet linkages have altered the risks we face but they are an inevitable consequence of the free movement of capital, which has brought with it new opportunities for us all. Any answer to the question of what role the IMF should nowplay must recognise these balance sheet linkages. The size and composition of balance sheets is crucial for determining how shocks are transmitted across national borders. And surprises about economic policy and news about economic fundamentals can, by generating changes in desired balance sheet positions, have large impacts on capital and expenditure flows. 3  This principle is also illustrated by the United Kingdom. Between 1946 and 1971, the UK had four IMF programmes. The maximum current account deficit at the start of those programs was 1% of GDP. Since 1998, the UK current account deficit has not been less than 1.5% of GDP but has been financed fully through private markets. 4  Greenspan, A (2005), “International Imbalances”, Remarks before the Advancing Enterprise Conference, London. 5  Lane, P. and G. Milesi-Ferretti (2005), “Financial Globalisation and Exchange Rates”, IMF Working paper 05/3. BIS Review 11/2006  3  Is there a need for an international monetary institution? In the post-Bretton Woods world, do we need an international financial institution, and what would be its role? Or has the international capital market replaced the need for such a public institution by providing both finance to, and discipline on, countries?
This effect was expectable but proved to be stronger. The contribution of exchange rate fluctuations and heavy crop to inflation slowdown may decline in future. We took this into account when choosing the scale of key rate reduction. The Bank of Russia maintains a focus on the analysis of inflation trends in the regions. Although most regions are enjoying slower inflation, it still varies considerably. February data suggest that annual inflation in the regions ranged between 1.9 and 6.4%. Differing readings for price growth across regions are explained by a number of factors including households’ capacity to pay, the level of competition, industrial specialisation and the policy of local authorities. Monetary policy 1 / 14  BIS central bankers' speeches  checks overall inflationary pressure; yet, regional differences will persist, albeit, as we foresee, will diminish progressively. Inflation may also vary across households with different incomes. Early last year, these differences became stronger. This year we are witnessing lower inflation almost in all income groups, except for highest income households. Inflation in medium and low income households is approaching the 4% target, which is certainly a positive trend. This lays the groundwork for soundness of households’ savings and incomes. Second, a more sustainable economic recovery does not trigger inflationary pressure. The updated Rosstat data suggest that the downturn in the Russian economy was not so deep in 2015–2016 and the economy saw a recovery earlier than expected.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Norges Bank’s task is to promote an efficient and robust financial infrastructure. New decentralised technology offers the potential to increase the efficiency of our infrastructure. It is still early days, and we do not know what the outcome will be. But it is still worthwhile to take a closer look at the possibilities. Norges Bank will start work on assessing safety and efficiency, and other consequences of such solutions. We want dialogue with relevant operators in Norway and abroad. Both the authorities and market participants should assess the need for standardisation and regulation. The timing for introducing such measures must not impede development in an early phase. I look forward to an active debate. Many of the stakeholders participating in that debate are probably here today. Safety and contingency arrangements Technological advances also have implications for the security and contingency arrangements for our systems, which we as a nation must take seriously. Developments occur rapidly. Operators want to market new solutions to strengthen their competitive position, which is natural. But payment solutions do not function efficiently if they are not secure and if there is little customer confidence in the solutions. The payment chain includes many stages and they must all function. A chain is not stronger than its weakest link. Safety and operational stability must be adequately tested. Sound risk analyses are crucial. They provide a guide to risk-mitigation. Internet solutions have led to new criminal activities. Resource use to combat cybercrime is steadily increasing.
The second example based on asymmetric information is moral hazard. While adverse selection stands in the way of the closure of deals, moral hazard occurs after a contract was concluded. If these contracts are insufficiently structured counterparties have an incentive to adopt a behaviour which is undesirable to their partners. Moral hazard thus refers to the negative effects of the behaviour of the contract-taker on the contract-issuer. The textbook example here is the one where the holder of a fire insurance contract does not take enough precautions to prevent the outbreak of a fire since he trusts in the insurer’s cover. Only by introducing a certain degree of co-insurance in the contract can these negative effects on the contracting partners behaviour be mitigated. In the field of securities clearing and settlement systems, the design and implementation of various mechanisms may contribute to overcome the problem of moral hazard. Let me give you some examples. An obvious mechanism is to forbid uncovered (or unpriced) overdrafts since such overdrafts might encourage exaggerated risk taking. Some form of collateralisation usually provides the correct incentives. Another means to create the right incentives to avoid moral hazard is for CCPs to set up margining mechanisms to collateralise participants’ open positions. Lastly, market utilities  2  BIS Review 28/2003  may design and implement default funds to which both the defaulting and the surviving participants have to contribute, thereby reducing the occurrence of moral-hazard-like behaviour among them. The second imperfection that typically affects a financial system are externalities.

It also provides us with additional information on areas not covered by official statistical sources, and we learn which issues are of particular interest to enterprises. Information received from the regional network supported the picture presented in the June Inflation Report: enterprises are reducing costs while households’ financial position is strong. We are waiting to see if the results of the current round of talks will point to increased optimism in the business sector and in public entities or if the prospects for the future continue to be regarded as somewhat negative. Inflation is low in Norway. The rise in consumer prices adjusted for taxes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) has slowed primarily due to developments in prices for imported consumer goods. Low inflation is due to the appreciation of the krone throughout last year and low inflation abroad. The rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services has also slowed. This is particularly the case for domestically produced goods influenced by world market prices. Domestic price inflation has nevertheless remained close to 3 per cent, due to high wage growth over several years. In July, the year-on-year rise in the CPI-ATE was 0.7 per cent, which is lower than projected in the June Inflation Report and substantially lower than the inflation target. There are also prospects that inflation will be low for some time ahead.
In a corresponding manner, one can imagine a hypothetical situation where one or more Swedish banks chooses to invest a surplus in kronor in the Riksbank at the deposit rate rather than lending the money to other banks. Those banks that cannot find financing on the interbank market are then forced to use the Riksbank's lending facility. Firstly, loans in the Riksbank are more expensive and secondly, they require collateral. To avoid the interbank rate rising, the Riksbank has recourse to a number of different measures. In certain strained situations, we have previously chosen to increase the supply of loans at the monetary policy determined interest rate via our normal operations. If a bank should choose to invest its surplus in the Riksbank instead of providing loans on the interbank market, where loans are normally offered without collateral, the Riksbank might choose to offer the corresponding credit volume on the interbank market at the rate we are aiming for. The condition is that a bank borrowing from the Riksbank can offer eligible assets as collateral. At the start of the new millennium when, as some of you might remember, there was great unease over a possible liquidity shortage arising, the Riksbank extended its list of eligible collateral. In our system this can be said to mean that we increased the liquidity in the banking system, as this measure increased the possibilities for borrowing from the Riksbank.

The Riksbank has a crisis organisation to enable it to make rapid decisions in this type of situation. The banks' lending is important Another reason why the banks are particularly interesting in monetary policy terms is that lending from the banks plays an important role for the impact of monetary policy interest rate changes. If the Swedish banks for some reason reduce the supply of credit, companies and households cannot fully replace this loss with financing for consumption and investment elsewhere. Smaller companies are particularly dependent on the Swedish banks and the customer relations they have built up. Larger corporations, on the other hand, have access to other sources of financing, such as borrowing in the bond market, from foreign banks or via new share issues. The banks' supply of credit and their setting of interest rates can therefore influence how quickly and how much monetary policy affects activity in the economy and thus inflation. We can begin by stating that the repo rate is one important determining factor when the banks decide on their lending rates. When the lending rates are determined, the bank's own internal rate is crucial and it is normally determined by the repo rate. This is because the banks' financing of deficits and investment of surpluses arising at the end of the day can normally be done in the interbank market, where pricing depends on the repo rate. If a bank lends money to a company, the loan could be financed in the interbank market.
However, the situation remains challenging for large sections of the economy – even at the current exchange rate, the Swiss franc is still very strong. We expect it to weaken over time, and fall back to a level more in line with its economic fundamentals. As the data show, economic activity in Switzerland slowed significantly in Q3 2011. Exports, in particular, fell noticeably. In addition to the strong Swiss franc, the general global economic outlook has deteriorated and downside risks prevail. Given this difficult environment, we remain firmly committed to defending the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro. This commitment applies at any time, from the moment the market opens in Sydney on Monday to when it closes in New York on Friday. We will not tolerate any trading below the minimum rate in the relevant interbank market. To enforce this policy, we are prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities if necessary. Moreover, we stand ready to take further measures if the economic outlook and the risk of deflation so require. To explain the rationale behind the SNB’s current monetary policy in more detail, let me briefly outline our assessment of the global economic situation, as well as the risks for the Swiss economy. Subdued global economic outlook and substantial downside risks In our global baseline scenario, the outlook remains – overall – subdued. Economic growth will continue to be driven by emerging markets.

Over the coming year, the Global FX Committee and the broader international community will be working towards bringing the level of signup to the Code on the buy-side up towards that seen on the sell-side. Please join us in that campaign. 9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  9
The resultant increase in the trend rate of growth for a longer or shorter period means that the economy can expand more rapidly than before without boosting inflation. This is the process that is often being referred to today as “the new economy”. I do not find the term particularly apt but if it can serve as a simple aid to understanding what the new information technology can bring about, I have no objection to using it here. A similar economic transformation is not yet discernible in Sweden nor, for that matter, in other countries in Europe. So the growth path has not been adjusted upwards as it has in the United States. The rate of investment both in Europe as a whole and in Sweden has been appreciably lower than in  1  BIS Review 129/1999  the United States for the past four to six years. It may be asked why the new technology is being introduced so quickly on the other side of the Atlantic and so much more slowly here. First I should say that this is a very knotty question. Economics has no precise methods that tell us when a technical breakthrough is likely to show up in higher economic growth. Basically, however, the process is bound up with the growth climate in general. There is no exact definition of the growth climate but it does include the degree of macroeconomic stability, how the education system performs, the construction of the tax system, the legal framework and so on.

In promoting the stability and efficiency of the financial system, we favour capital charges based on more sensitive risk measures. Some argue that such measures are procyclical and add to the vulnerability of the system as a whole. I will deal with this issue before going on to discuss some features of the new proposals. In particular I will consider the pros and cons of more complex rules, the use of internal ratings and the measurement of operational risks. I will end by looking beyond the current proposals at potential new chapters for the Basel Accord, including the harmonisation of provisioning policies and the development of capital charges for financial conglomerates. The role of the Bank of England in financial stability As many of you may know, the Bank of England has three core purposes: first, to maintain the integrity and value of the currency, generally referred to as our monetary policy objective; second, to maintain the stability of the financial system, both domestic and international; and third, to ensure the effectiveness of the UK’s financial services. The Bank’s monetary policy role is well known through the minutes of Monetary Policy Committee meetings and the quarterly publication of the Inflation Report. But a similar transparency is pursued in relation to financial stability with the publication semi-annually of the Financial Stability Review. Our interest in the regulatory architecture most obviously stems from this second objective.