samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Trends which have been ongoing in the past decade, such as rising inequality in AngloSaxon countries and the current financial crisis, could determine, however, a shift in the preferences of the US population in favour of greater State intervention in sectors such as education and health care. This is, at least, what seems to come out from the election of the new US president. The reduced importance of the public sector as an automatic stabiliser could increase US business cycle variability and create the scope for more discretionary fiscal stabilisation measures. The preference for discretionary interventions is enhanced by the low tolerance in the US for protracted slowdowns of economic growth. This may hinge, inter alia, on the impact that economic slowdowns may have on social cohesion in an environment with fewer automatic stabilisers. Another reason may have to do with the frequency of the electoral contests, not only in the executive but also and especially in the legislative branch, where elections take place every 2 years. It is well known, in fact, that the economic situation has a crucial importance for voters. Ricardian equivalence is one widely debated aspect of the discretionary component of budget policy. It is worth pointing out that a financial agent adopting a Ricardian approach is capable of looking ahead and of understanding that higher government spending today will entail higher taxes tomorrow. Thus a Ricardian consumer does not easily alter his spending in response to fiscal injections.

In other cases, uncertainty about the possible consequences of Year 2000 disruptions could lead to over-reactions on the part of market participants. As supervisors, we will need to be increasingly alert to the possibility of Year 2000 rumors affecting the liquidity of firms during the latter half of 1999, and should support the disclosure of accurate information in response. The Basle Committee’s Year 2000 Task Force will be developing a contingency planning document focused on issues relevant for bank supervisors. I am pleased to see that the Joint Year 2000 Council also has formed a sub-group to address contingency issues, including sound practices for financial institution contingency planning as well as market-wide aspects. As I see it, there are three broad areas to consider in developing contingency plans. First, each firm should have a contingency plan that covers business continuity issues in the case of operational problems affecting its own systems. Institutions also should develop contingency plans that would help address Year 2000 problems arising from their vendors or customers, or as a result of disruptions to public infrastructure. These plans should seek to assess the risks that firms face in each instance and should focus on the possible measures that may be available to mitigate those risks. Second, supervisors and regulators need to develop their own contingency plans for how they will deal with problems affecting them or the institutions under their jurisdiction. Most organizations have some experience in contingency planning for various types of market disruptions, so this will not be entirely new ground.
Miguel Fernández Ordóñez: Immigration and the inflation moderation debate Speech by Mr Miguel Fernández Ordóñez, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the Symposium “The Phillips curve and the natural rate hypothesis”, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 3 June 2007. *  *  *  Introduction It is a pleasure to be here today at this Symposium in such distinguished company. The organisers have put together an impressive programme on a key topic for policymakers and central bankers in particular. As you know, the relationship between inflation and economic activity has always been at the heart of the macroeconomics discipline. And theoretical developments in this field have had a significant and direct influence on actual monetary policymaking. We are currently in a unique situation. For an unusually long period, in the context of high global growth, inflation has remained low and stable. Many commentators – and not only central bankers – would agree that better-managed monetary policy has had a lot to do with this favourable inflation performance. And there is a lively debate about which specific aspects of monetary policymaking have been responsible for it. Let’s look at three questions this debate has raised. First, do central bankers now have better knowledge of the economy and of monetary policy transmission and, consequently, are adopting more effective decisions? Second, have monetary policy regimes shifted towards making price stability a more prominent target?

At the same time, academics have shown how the short-term output costs of price stability can be kept down if central  BIS Review 59/2007  1  banks adopt credible and transparent targets. I will mention here the New-Keynesian theory of price determination, which convincingly relates current inflation to future expected inflation, providing a yardstick for monetary policy actions and communication. In the ECB Governing Council, we are proud that we have been able to continue anchoring inflation expectations at levels consistent with our definition of price stability. But there is no room for complacency. The recent inflation success story and the central bank changes behind it need continuing social support. The public must have a clear-cut idea of what inflation means for their future income and job prospects. But while people appreciate the benefits of low inflation, differing national situations and economic conditions can alter preferences over time and from country to country. Let’s go back to monetary unification in Europe in the 90’s. We could argue that European citizens were not exactly clamouring at that time for a fully independent central bank tasked with maintaining price stability for the euro zone as a whole. What is more, some critics viewed the fact that would-be EMU members had to meet nominal convergence criteria as a costly economic sacrifice that was justifiable only on political grounds, if at all. Yet in some countries, and certainly in Spain, countering inflation with tight monetary and fiscal policies led to a virtuous circle, once convergence became credible.
Increasing this share can lower costs associated with cash handling for both businesses and the economy, creating a virtuous cycle for affordable remittance services. Project Greenback Kota Kinabalu As one chapter comes to an end, another begins. In continuation of our efforts to encourage ongoing positive developments in the remittance market, Bank Negara Malaysia and the World Bank are pleased to take the Project Greenback partnership to Malaysia’s second remittance champion city – the city of Kota Kinabalu. On behalf of Bank Negara Malaysia let me thank Y Bhg. Datuk Juanis Solidau for his presence here today to mark the handover, and to Dewan Bandaraya Kota Kinabalu for agreeing to host the project. We are very excited about the prospect of bringing the project to Kota Kinabalu, which will offer the opportunity to apply successful lessons from Johor Bahru, and also new and different experiences to build on. This will include a focus on supporting e-remittances given the large number of migrant workers staying in remote areas. Conclusion As the Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu famously said “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” We are extremely grateful to the city of Johor Bahru for enabling us to take the first step in this Greenback experience. We now look forward to the next step on this journey which 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  will take us to Kota Kinabalu.

May I conclude by extending my warmest congratulations to all of those involved in taking forward this important project. I hope that this project will prove to be a success and I look forward to further cooperation in the future with all who have an interest in developing the debt market in Hong Kong and in the region as a whole. BIS Review 84/1999  2
V.  Safety nets: crisis resolution  In free market economy, no policy and no supervision can prevent the possibility of financial distress in any particular financial institution. What the public policy can do is to minimize the likelihood of systemic crisis. Crisis resolution is the key to avoid systemic disturbance. As we know, the ultimate policy choice for the authorities is to find the balance between the public sector and private sector solution from the one hand and between the pre-determined schedule and ad hoc approach from the other hand. Estonia's currency board regime sets for Bank of Estonia clear and strict limits that exclude several options available for the authorities in many other countries. By limiting the money supply to net foreign assets of the central bank, the room for emergency liquidity support is very limited. Therefore, in our case, the private sector solution is preferable and particular modalities of crisis resolution will depend very much on the circumstances. At this point, I would like to refer back to previous parts of my speech and underline that this particular approach rests upon a few strong fundamentals. Continuous analysis of financial system developments and early warning indicators, importance of strong owners and sound risk management in banks, high liquidity and capital requirements – these basic principles are a necessity for us. By combining the principles just mentioned, we can now describe a few hypothetical crisis resolution situations in Estonian financial system.

Finally, there is perhaps no need to say that over the past decade, we have indeed applied all these scenarios on our financial institutions in very real circumstances. VI. Regulations: pro or counter cyclical? Finally, let me briefly touch upon the regulatory issues. Bank of Estonia is responsible for regulating the banking system in Estonia. The detailed description of Estonian banking regulations goes far beyond the scope of my speech, but I would just like to say that one advantage of being a transition economy was the possibility to draw the legislation from the scratch. That has facilitated very much the compliance with good practices and de facto full adoption of the EU acquis. What is a real regulatory challenge for central bank in our case is the question of to what extent regulatory measures should be taken into account in broader financial policy context. Arguments can be made for changing the regulations in accordance with the business cycle, especially as it seems that in modern world financial systems have become more pro-cyclical than before. In that case, early tightening may pre-empt the possibly devastating effects of asset price volatility and loan losses once the economy starts to cool down. That might be even more relevant if credit growth is high in the early stage of the cycle. This approach has particular appeal for policy makers under the currency board as the active use of monetary measures is excluded and reserve requirements are essentially the only available monetary tool.
It is likely that in the second half of this year, the UK economy will return to positive, if modest, growth. Financial markets have improved, with banks finding it easier and less costly to access wholesale funding markets, and in time this should ease lending conditions to households and businesses. These developments are encouraging. But they need to be seen in context, and we should be under no illusion that the path to a sustained recovery will be smooth and painless. Output is still well below and unemployment well above their levels of a year ago, and are likely to remain so for sometime. To keep inflation close to the 2% target, monetary policy tries to keep a balance between overall demand and supply. Judging that balance, given an impaired banking sector and the likelihood of a significant fiscal tightening over the next few years, is particularly difficult. At the moment, inflation is 1.1%. Many have forgotten that only a year ago it reached 5.2%. It is likely that inflation will remain volatile over the coming year. It will pick up over the next few months reflecting higher petrol prices, recent falls in sterling and the reversal of the cut in VAT. Looking through these short-run factors, however, inflation will be determined by the path of money spending relative to the supply capacity of the economy. Over the past year money spending, which normally expands at around 5% a year, has fallen by 5%.

Mervyn King: Monetary policy developments Speech by Mr Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, to Scottish business organisations, Edinburgh, 20 October 2009. *  *  *  Two years ago Scotland was home to two of the largest and most respected international banks. Both are now largely state-owned. Sir Walter Scott would have been mortified by these events. Writing in 1826, under the pseudonym of Malachi Malagrowther, he observed that: “Not only did the Banks dispersed throughout Scotland afford the means of bringing the country to an unexpected and almost marvellous degree of prosperity, but in no considerable instance, save one [the Ayr Bank], have their own over-speculating undertakings been the means of interrupting that prosperity”. Banking has not been good for the wealth of the Scottish – and, it should be said, almost any other – nation recently. Over the past year, almost six million jobs have been lost in the United States, over 2½ million in the euro area, and over half a million in the United Kingdom. Our national debt is rising rapidly, not least as the consequence of support to the banking system. We shall all be paying for the impact of this crisis on the public finances for a generation. The United Kingdom faces two fundamental long-run challenges. First, to rebalance the economy, with more resources allocated to business investment and net exports and fewer to consumption.
Christian Noyer: Is speculation the enemy of investment? Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, Aix-en-Provence Economic Forum, Aix-en-Provence, 5 July 2014. *  *  *  Between paradox and illusion: a narrow path for finance Seven years after the start of the crisis, the French public – and they are not alone in this – remain largely hostile to the world of finance. Despite huge efforts at reform, there are still doubts hanging over the sector. Is finance useful for the economy? Or, in its current form, is it merely a tool for ever-increasing speculation, at the expense of investment and the longterm needs of the economy? The fact that we still need to ask this question shows that we are living in difficult and paradoxical times, where the inner workings of the economy are often a mystery. In this context, it is tempting to fall back on simple solutions; but that would be dangerous, and I will try to sketch out, in just a few minutes, what I believe would be a good middle ground between an unconditional love for and an exaggerated hatred of financial activity.

I will begin by highlighting the challenges raised by the accelerated digital transition of our payment system, seen from the perspective of an authority tasked with safeguarding monetary and financial stability (1), before going on to discuss how we at the Banque de France are playing our part in tackling these challenges (2). I/ Challenges Major innovation in the field of payments has clearly accompanied the increasing digitalisation of the ways in which we consume and behave, fuelling the emergence of a dynamic and enhanced new ecosystem. As I see it, this raises three types of challenges for the safety and efficiency of our payment system. A. Ensure that the rise of “decentralised finance” contributes positively to the safety and efficiency of our payment system When I say decentralised finance, I am talking about the new trend towards the tokenisation of financial assets, such as the creation of new tradable assets associated with new rights, for instance utility tokens, and the development of crypto-assets. These offer opportunities to improve our payment systems and solutions, particularly for cross-border payments, but also for securities issuance and settlement systems. They could also help to expand the array of financing tools available to businesses. But they also pose risks that could undermine the efficiency and safety of these systems. These risks must be mitigated and controlled.
With sustainability-focused mandates gaining traction in parts of Asia, Singapore is supporting our asset managers to develop relevant solutions and skills in their investment processes to support this growing and strategic segment, such as the IMAS-WWF responsible fund managers masterclass, with the first run this November. In June, MAS launched the Green Bond Grant Scheme to nurture the growth of the green bond market and enlarge the supply of green assets. The grant defrays the costs of 14.  obtaining an external review for green bonds of up to $ per issuance. With asset owners mobilising capital into sustainability-focused products, green bonds is emerging as an asset class here in Asia. a. In April, Singapore witnessed its first green bond issuance by a Singapore company, City Developments Limited (CDL). CDL successfully financed its investments in energy saving and efficient infrastructures through the green bond. In July, DBS also led the way with a USD 500 million green bond issue, the first such issuance by a financial institution in Singapore. 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  b. International green bond issuers are also considering Singapore. Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA), the non-banking financial arm of India’s Ministry of new and renewable energy, announced plans to raise a USD 300 million Green Masala Bond at the Singapore Stock Exchange. Conclusion 15. In conclusion, Asia’s economic growth is the bright spot in the global economy, and this will create immense opportunities for bonds in Asia.

Compared with the 1990s recession, and despite a far greater collapse in demand, fewer businesses have failed and fewer people have lost their jobs and their homes. Now, at last, there are clear signs that the economy is on the mend. It is still early days and the MPC will be doing its utmost to ensure that recovery is not nipped in the bud. But when the time does come for us to start raising Bank Rate, we should celebrate that as a welcome sign that the economy is finally well on the road back to normality. Thank you! 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  UK Economic Prospects North East Chamber of Commerce Presidents Club Talk Rockcliffe Hall Hotel Charlie Bean, Deputy Governor Monetary Policy 10 March 2014  Chart 1: Household saving ratio  (a) Recessions are defined as at least two consecutive quarters of falling output (at constant market prices) estimated using the latest data. The recessions are assumed to have ended once output began to rise. (b) Percentage of household post-tax income.
Going forward, the ECB remains committed to do whatever it takes to comply with its mandate of maintaining price stability in the euro area. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  14  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  15  16  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  17  18  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  19  20  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  21

I further call on the media to play its rightful role in educating the masses and the youth in particular on the  2  BIS Review 103/2010  importance of entrepreneurship and indeed to give more coverage to Zambians who have succeeded in entrepreneurship in order for our youths to be motivated. I also wish to urge other banks and financial institutions to emulate Intermarket Banking Corporation to develop such well meaning initiatives for this is indeed good Corporate Social Responsibility. I am sure that there are a number of entrepreneurs all over Zambia who are in dire need of that seed capital as well as the initial push to realize their dreams. I have in mind here the very innovative entrepreneurs in Mutendere, Kalingalinga, Garden Compound, Mandevu and several other industrial clusters in our country who are trying to do their best but lack the necessary support in form of finance and education. As I conclude, I wish all the teams that have been shortlisted tonight continued success in future. Unfortunately, there can be only one winner of the overall award but each nominee is already a winner and should feel proud of their nomination and deserving of recognition and our congratulations. I hope that all of you whether you win the award or not will develop your businesses ideas into a reality in future. To the winners, I heartily congratulate you and urge you to make the best use of the K100 Million Prize.
At the same time, business start-ups remain at a record level, at over 400,000 excluding microentrepreneurs. Similarly, we do not have any general concerns about the reimbursement of SGLs. Since February 2022, we have received 671 requests, covering less than 0.1% of the total number of SGLs. Of the EUR 143 billion that have helped close to 700,000 businesses, EUR 46 billion have already been repaid. And today, over 95% of businesses are repaying their SGL correctly. The Banque de France's Credit Mediation remains mobilised in each of your départements to address the most difficult cases, within the framework of the "local agreement" renewed for 2023. Regarding households, growth in housing loans still amounted to +5.3% in December (and +5.1% in January) in the context of a gradual rise in the average rate, which then stood at 2.05%,2 compared with 2.9% on average in the euro area and 3.5% in Germany. In France, housing credit remains the cheapest,  1 2  Business failures | Banque de France (banque-france.fr) Excl. fees and insurance; Loans to individuals — December 2022, Banque de France, 3 February 2023  Page 4 sur 5 most abundant and safest in Europe - with 97% of outstanding loans at fixed rates. Source: ECB Of course, we have come out of the years of exceptionally easy credit. Nevertheless, the financing needs of the real economy are still largely met, thanks to the soundness of French banks.

Besides, credit deceleration, as long as it takes place in an orderly manner, is justified, after the recent rise in private debt ratios (households and non-financial corporations). In this respect, I would like to point out that France's debt ratio is the highest of the major European countries at 147% of GDP in Q3 2022, compared to 119% on average in the euro area. This leaves the third major economic agent: general government as a whole. France's public debt ratio is not only 20 percentage points higher than that of the euro area as a whole (113% of GDP compared with 93% in Q3 2022),1 but it is not decreasing, unlike that of the other major countries of the euro area. Since energy prices are declining, we must now begin to rapidly reduce support measures, while targeting them at those who need them most. Tariff shields may have been useful in the short term to cushion the energy shock, but they cannot alleviate it altogether. Indeed, a lasting victory against inflation cannot be achieved by fiscal measures, but by monetary policy and by strengthening our productive supply. More broadly, the response to this crisis, to this new world, lies above all in a major effort to adapt.