samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
We will need to give Mr Gambari some time to start the process and make patient progress. Asia’s rising share in world GDP However, Myanmar and the other flashpoints I have mentioned are unlikely to derail Asia’s growth. There is a sense of déjà vu that this is Asia’s century. The statistics speak for themselves. In 1980, Asia accounted for just 19% of global GDP in PPP terms. Today, it is 36%, almost doubled. By 2020, it is expected to reach 45%. For many of you, figures on global wealth held by High Net Worth Individuals in Asia-Pacific may be more interesting. The region now accounts for 23% of global wealth held by these individuals. Merrill Lynch forecasts that Asia-Pacific’s annual growth rate in private wealth will be 8.5%, and that this wealth will reach $ trillion by 2011. The region has learnt well from the devastating experience of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Asian Governments have since built up their foreign reserves, reined in Government debt, strengthened their financial systems, and made their exchange rates more flexible. Lessons from sub-prime crisis Nonetheless, the current sub-prime crisis shows that we cannot afford to be less than vigilant in the financial industry. There are some lessons we can learn here. First, a major reason why Asia has escaped the sub-prime crisis relatively unscathed is because it has not yet moved into sophisticated structured credit financing in a big way.

But I believe that today the risks are high because political repudiation – attributable in part to the crisis, but not only to the crisis – is on the agenda, and this was non-existent or insubstantial only a decade ago. For the first time since the signing of the European Union Treaty in 1992, political currents and popular movements have arisen in the EU openly contrary to the integration so far achieved and, of course, to potential further steps towards greater integration; contrary to European institutions and their current remits; and contrary to the continuity of the single currency. The announced departure by the United Kingdom, whatever its final form, is going to encourage these movements. In this situation, national governments, European Union authorities and legislators all have a responsibility to come up with the appropriate response and to pursue the reforms that may first contain misgivings and then restore support, relatively seamlessly, for the grand European Union project. To conclude, allow me to return to monetary policy and central bank action. As we approach the twentieth anniversary of the launching of the euro, we can have no doubts about the crucial importance of preserving and strengthening the Monetary Union and the single currency in order to sustain and give continuity to the European Union project. Many thanks, once more, to Fomento de Trabajo Nacional for this celebratory event and to all of you for your attention. . 7/7
As seen on the slide, inflation followed a flat course during the third quarter as these two effects largely offset each other (Chart 7). However, exchange rate developments ended up being more dominant which led inflation to exceed the forecast range presented in the July Inflation Report. In the third quarter, exchange rate developments led to an increase in the underlying trend of core inflation indicators as well (Chart 8). This was mainly triggered by the increase in prices of core goods, while the underlying trend of services inflation remained relatively modest (Chart 9). BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Distinguished Guests, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data indicated more robust economic activity in the second quarter of 2011 compared to the outlook presented in the July Inflation Report. Therefore, the output gap estimates of this period were revised upwards. Private sector consumption and investment expenditures became the main drivers of growth in this period. While exports followed a weak course amid developments in the global economy, imports recorded a significant decline following the slowdown in domestic demand due to the policy measures adopted. Thus, the net external demand made a positive contribution to growth on a quarterly basis for the first time after a long stretch. In other words, the composition of growth started to change in the desired direction (Chart 10). Owing to the lagged effects of the contractionary reserve requirement and liquidity policies, domestic demand continued to lose pace in the third quarter.

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The best environment that the central bank can provide for the economy to attain a high level of output and steady growth is one with price stability. Under inflation targeting, the Monetary Policy Board has to look ahead 18-24 months and adjust its stance today to influence the outcome of the future. This will help minimize the boom and bust phenomenon. The floating exchange rate regime will also help prevent imbalances from building up excessively, hence minimizing the risk of major crises. In terms of transparency and accountability, inflation targeting is probably the best tool of communication. While the general public may have difficulty understanding and keeping track of monetary growth targets, it fully understands inflation, the index of which is calculated and announced by an independent agency, in the case of Thailand the Ministry of Commerce. The regular publication of inflation reports will also help inform and educate the public much better than in the past. In the case of Thailand, inflation targeting is the best tool to ensure high output, sustainable growth, export competitiveness, prevention of a worsening of income distribution and a transparent and accountable central bank. The Bank of Thailand last year announced our explicit intention to control inflation, and the range of 0 to 3.5% of core inflation was announced in 23 May 2000. Since the beginning of the year, we have seen the yield on 10-year bonds drop from 7.91% per annum to 6.1%.

While other factors may have helped toward this reduction of long term borrowing costs, I am sure that public confidence in our commitment to control inflation was certainly one of the important factors. … The first seminar we organized concentrated on the principles of inflation targeting and laid the overall groundwork. In this seminar, we will go deeper into its implementation, its relevance to emerging economies, and the problems that it may face in the environment of large public debt overhang. We are very fortunate indeed to have with us eminent speakers, most of them from countries that have successfully applied this technique. I therefore strongly urge the audience to take advantage of the presence of the experts by asking questions and airing your concerns to the fullest extent possible. I very much hope that by the end of the seminar, you will all become convinced. BIS Review 106/2000  2
2  BIS Review 46/2003  Nominal interest rates were relatively stable from the 1800s and up to the 1950s.1 Periodically strong fluctuations in inflation resulted in substantial variations in the real interest rate from one year to the next, as we measure it in retrospect. The gold standard set the framework for monetary policy at the end of the 1800s and up to 1929.2 During the gold standard era, the central bank determined the price of the national currency relative to the price of gold. Central banks had to keep stocks of gold that could be used to stabilise the gold price by actively buying and selling gold in the market. The money supply and inflation in a country are then determined by the supply of gold on the world market. When two or more currencies are pegged to gold at a fixed price, these currencies will also have a fixed price in relation to each other. As in other systems with fixed exchange rates, this restricted the individual country’s scope for using the interest rate as an instrument to stabilise the real economy. In the interwar years, nominal interest rates were relatively high. This may primarily be ascribed to the policy of gold parity that was pursued in many countries. The aim of a number of countries, including Norway, was to strengthen the value of the national currency against gold, so as to reestablish the gold parity of the pre-First World War period.

Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox and the effective lower bound Welcome address by Mr Philip R Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy “bridging science and practice”, Frankfurt am Main, 11 October 2021. * * * It is a pleasure to welcome you to the 2021 edition of the annual ECB Conference on Monetary Policy. As captured in the title of this year’s event, this conference series serves a vital role in bridging the science and practice of monetary policy. In particular, it is essential for the ECB to incorporate in our analytical framework the theoretical and empirical insights generated by the global academic community, and the conference format (albeit in webinar mode again this year) is very effective in providing us with a platform to discuss the latest developments. The breadth of academic research (in terms of both topics and research techniques) that is relevant for monetary policy is quite wide and this is reflected in the composition of the conference programme. The agenda includes research that exploits financial market data to examine the transmission of monetary policy, studies the impact of the pandemic on firms and banks using entity-level datasets, analyses the interactions between monetary policy and financial stability in a full-scale macroeconomic model, and explores the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the formation of household expectations.
We have evaluated what effect of a worst case disorderly scenario, featuring much lower GDP, higher inflation and unemployment and much lower house prices, would be on the core banking system, and concluded that it would be resilient to such an event – in other words that banks would be able to continue to lend to households and businesses in a way  11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  11  Chart 11: Expectations for the impact of Brexit on business  Net percentage balance 50  Deal and transition  No deal and no transition  40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40  they couldn’t at the time of the financial crisis. Just as importantly, we have published our assessment of the most significant risks to financial stability from disruption to cross-border services in a disorderly scenario, and we have worked with other authorities in the UK and EU to mitigate those risks. This work has been largely successful: in our view most risks to financial stability that could arise have been mitigated – although, particularly in the absence of further actions by EU authorities, some potential risks to financial stability, primarily to EU households and businesses, remain. And it’s important to note that financial stability is not the same as market stability; a no deal, no transition Brexit could still be expected to bring significant market volatility, as well as economic instability.

5  9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  9  Table A: Summary of the May 2019 Inflation Report forecast  4 The outlook for policy  The resilience of the economy to date has meant that the MPC and FPC have both adjusted policy. Demand, in terms of GDP growth, has exceeded growth in supply such that spare capacity in the economy has been, broadly speaking, used up. Reflecting that, and its implications for domestic inflationary pressure, the MPC has raised Bank Rate twice; it now stands at 0.75%. The FPC, meanwhile, judging that the domestic risk environment had returned to a standard level, has also raised the counter cyclical capital buffer twice to 1%. Looking ahead, if we get a smooth Brexit with a transition deal, as assumed in the MPC’s latest Inflation Report forecast (Table A), I expect growth to pick up, leading to excess demand and building domestic inflationary pressure, so that further monetary tightening is appropriate to maintain monetary stability. Relative to the best collective judgement expressed in the MPC’s central forecast I am, as I have set out in my talk today, a little more pessimistic on GDP growth than my colleagues on the MPC. But as I have discussed, that is true both on the supply side, where I can see more downside risks to productivity, and on the demand side, where I am less optimistic that investment will recover as much as it does in the central forecast.
Mario Draghi: Response on receipt of an Honorary Doctorate from Tel Aviv University Speech by Mr Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, on the receipt of an Honorary Doctorate from Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, 18 May 2017. * * * Ladies and gentlemen, It is my privilege to speak to you tonight, on behalf of all those whom you distinguished by awarding an honorary doctorate of the University of Tel Aviv. We come from different fields of human endeavour. Politics, policy, business, history and of course fundamental research. Our achievements are diverse. But they are all based on careful accumulation, experimentation and exploitation of knowledge. Knowledge created and fostered by universities such as yours. And I cannot but detect the profound influence of this search for knowledge in my memory of recent events. The eruption of the global financial crisis in 2008, and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in Europe, caused a deep recession worldwide, a sharp increase in unemployment and exposed the incompleteness of some parts of the EU institutional architecture. Fertile conditions to give voice to populist and nationalistic rhetoric. But that period of crisis was also conducive to improving our understanding of economic and political forces, and to translating this new knowledge into action. The crisis has thus resulted in a form of creative destruction, where established paradigms have been critically revisited, where flawed practices have been exposed and replaced by sounder ones and where new research addressed previously neglected aspects of our societies.

This year marks the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome that created the European Union and the 25th anniversary of the Maastricht Treaty that created the Monetary Union. Further progress is needed. The institutional architecture of the Economic and Monetary Union remains incomplete in a number of aspects. The crisis has exposed structural weaknesses in our construction and has forced us to address them. The repair has started with the creation of 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  the banking union. But the work is far from over and the challenges we face go beyond Economic and Monetary Union. They pertain to security, migration, defence, and generally all those challenges that can be addressed only by pooling sovereignty. And these challenges are greater than in the past. Today we can sense a rising wave of energy in demanding joint European action. The European Union and the euro always commanded the support of the majority of European citizens, but, often, it was only the vocal opposition that was heard. Now this silent majority has regained its voice, its pride, and its self-confidence. Only by working together can the nations of Europe overcome these challenges. The opportunity for progress is real. Values and judgement lie at the heart of all our undertakings. But they need to be supported by continuing research, ever increasing knowledge, and uncompromising examination of facts.
While the BOT is assuring a stable environment for private real sector, I will urge the private sector to work harder, to improve their management system and corporate governance, to better learn about their markets, to better control and lower their costs, and to invest in training and technology. Only by doing so, will they be able to not only survive, but also ready to grow and take advantage of the world recovery when it comes. Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 81/2001  3

This means that they are dependent on the path of economic fundamentals; in the case of government bonds, for example, the relevant factors include the budget balance, monetary policy and inflation expectations. Financial asset prices are highly susceptible both to expectations of how the market ought to move, given the underlying conditions, and to how it will move, given the expectations of how other players will act. This can result in wide fluctuations. Prices may deviate for a considerable time from what could be regarded as their long-term equilibrium. Markedly inflated prices can result in ‘bubbles’, out  3  BIS Review 52/1999  of touch with the level that seems to be fundamentally justified. Examples of this are the developments in some Asian countries in the mid 1990s, as well as price movements in the Swedish property market around the turn of the 1980s. To some extent, such phenomena can be explained in terms of how economic policy is conducted. But the causes of large price movements are also to be found in the construction of financial markets. If a market is to function properly, all the relevant information should be available simultaneously to every player. In practice, that is evidently not the case. Moreover, financial players can act in the knowledge that what they do will influence the market. The fact that performance is assessed in the short run, in many cases in comparisons with other players, makes herd behaviour common.
In that situation, it would be injudicious for Norway to compromise its current agreements with Europe. CLIMATE CHANGE REQUIRES STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTS The world needs more cooperation, not less. We are facing a climate crisis that can only be addressed by engaging in a common global effort. Last year’s report from the UN climate panel was alarming. If work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is not intensified, global warming could spin out of control. A warmer planet will have serious consequences. Major changes in production methods and consumption patterns are needed in order to mitigate global warming. Measures taken must lead to concrete reductions in global emissions and should be cost-efficient. Emissions pricing is essential to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The polluter must pay. The consequences of not having applied this principle at a global level are now coming into evidence. To quote one of last year’s Nobel laureates in economics, William D. Nordhaus: “The result is too much burning of fossil fuels, too much climate change, and too many harms to humans, wildlife, ecosystems, and more.”2 It is a demanding task to put into place adequate measures. The gains from lower emissions are shared by all – also by those who do not contribute, which creates a free-rider incentive both at the global and national level. Moreover, there is opposition 2 Nordhaus, W. D. (2018): Speech delivered at the Nobel Banquet in Stockholm, 10 December 2018. 7  to environmental taxes, not only among low-income groups.

Percent of global GDP. 1975 – 2017 70 60  70  Trade in goods Trade in services  60  50  50  40  40  30  30  20  20  10  10  0 1975  0 1980  1985  1990  1995  2000  2005  2010  2015  1) Trade is defined as the sum of exports and imports of goods and services. Source: World Bank  A more closely interwoven world economy has facilitated specialisation, innovation and better use of local comparative advantages. The room for exchanging ideas and knowledge has expanded. Increased competition and innovation have gone hand in hand. Efficient global trade is particularly advantageous for small open economies, like Norway. Norway has benefitted greatly from the opportunities afforded by trade with other countries. 3  It is almost impossible to imagine today’s welfare level without the specialisation brought about thanks to a world of open borders. Norway exports a limited range of goods and services to the world market (Chart 2). This allows Norway to finance imports of numerous finished goods, which are cheaper than if we had manufactured them at home. Labour is thereby freed up for use in education, health and other services. NORGES BANK ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 14 FEBRUARY 2019  Chart 2 Exchange of goods gives Norway opportunities. Trade in goods. In billions of NOK.
First, the variation in skills demanded by employers across industries has probably shrunk in a more service oriented economy, which would assist transition where it is needed. And second, policy intervention, particularly the furlough scheme, will help to preserve viable employment going forwards, and skills specific to particular jobs or companies, which is a good thing. Ahead of its May Monetary Policy Report, the MPC will assess the impact of the extension of the furlough and related schemes, announced in last week’s Budget. My expectation would be that this is likely to reduce the peak level of unemployment over the coming months. However some rise in unemployment as the scheme tapers will be hard to avoid. Just as workers are often specialised, capital such as plant and machinery can be specialised for specific tasks. The more specialised capital is, the harder it is to redeploy. Bank staff have estimated capital “redeployability” scores for different types of assets using a similar approach to Kim and Kung (2017). Information and communications technology, machinery and buildings tend to be highly redeployable, with uses across many industries. In contrast, there are few alternative uses for aircraft. Capital may also be in the wrong location even if the pattern of output is similar, if Covid results in such a change of location, for instance related to the rise of home working. It is also reasonable to think that there is, and will be, considerable uncertainty over which changes in demand will prove temporary and which will persist (Vlieghe, 2020).

The UK’s progress on resolvability Speech given by Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking  At the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales 26 February 2021  With thanks to Anika Duggal and Amy Lee for their assistance in preparing these remarks, and to Bank colleagues including Andrew Bailey, Adam Cull, Andrew Hewitt, Sasha Mills, Michael Salib, Ruth Smith, Tom Smith and Sam Woods for their many helpful comments and suggestions. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  Thank you for inviting me to come to speak at the virtual ICAEW. I can’t think of a better venue for my first speech on resolution – particularly because of the vital role which the accountancy profession plays in some of our key resolvability judgements and safeguards, which fundamentally underpin the credibility of the regime. The Bank of England is the UK’s Resolution Authority; within the Bank I took on Deputy Governor level responsibility for resolution a year ago. It has been a fascinating time for me to take on this important responsibility, allowing me to contribute to the ongoing shaping of our resolution regime as it develops towards its immediate goal. That goal, a strategic goal for the Bank, is ending ‘too big to fail’ by making sure the firms we supervise can fail in an orderly way no matter their size. Put more practically we committed to Parliament that major UK banks should be resolvable by 20221.