samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Chart 19: Gender pay gap Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition time series  Per cent Unaccounted for  Accounted for  Gender pay gap  35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0  1997  1999  2001  2003  2005  2007  2009  2011  2013  2015  2017  2019  Source: ONS Labour Force Survey and Bank of England calculations. Note: A positive gender pay gap in this chart indicates that women earn less than men. Looked at regionally, although the unconditional gender pay gap is relatively stable over the sample in London, once we allow for compositional effects the picture is more promising. The unexplained (“pay bias”) component of pay has fallen over time in London, reaching 5.5% by the end of the sample. Outside London, the gender pay gap has also been on a downward trend, driven by both explained and unexplained factors. Next we implement the same methodology for the ethnicity pay gaps.10 Chart 20 shows the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition of the ethnicity pay gap over the full sample. The conditional ethnicity pay gap averages a relatively modest 5% over the sample, smaller than for gender. This is no longer the case once we account for compositional effects. These point to higher, rather than lower pay, for ethnic minorities. Specifically,  10  The share of the ethnic minority population has been increasing over time in our sample from approximately 4% in 1994 to 10% in 2019.

17  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  17  Chart 14: Median ethnicity pay gap by sector, sample average Ethnicity pay gap, per cent  London  20  Other 15  10  5  0  ‐5  ‐10  ‐15 Agriculture  Industry  Construction Trade and transport  ICT  Ethnic minority minority ethnic  Finance  Real Estate Professional Public sector  Other  White white  Source: ONS Labour Force Survey and Bank of England calculations. Note: A positive ethnicity pay gap in this chart indicates that ethnic minorities earn less than their white counterparts, whereas a negative ethnicity pay gap indicates that ethnic minorities earn more than their white counterparts. If we look at ethnic minority workers at a more granular level, some interesting cohort effects emerge. There is a very wide dispersion of pay among different ethnic minority cohorts, with some having negative and others positive pay gaps compared with their white counterparts (Chart 15). Median hourly pay is highest for those of Chinese ethnicity, at just over £ or around 15% higher than for whites. There are also negative pay gaps, though smaller ones, for workers from a mixed/multiple ethnic and Indian background. At the other end of the spectrum, there are significantly positive pay gaps for other ethnic minority cohorts, including black and Afro-Caribbean workers. The largest pay gaps are for workers from a Pakistani and Bangladeshi background, which average 13% and 20%, respectively (Chart 15).
Thailand’s better performance this year, notwithstanding a lackluster global economy, has been supported by the strong momentum in both domestic demand and exports. Front-loaded fiscal measure sparked up the initial momentum in domestic demand, while private consumption and investment are now adding firmly to the growth process. As the regional economies began to recover in the last five months, export growth has also provided an additional impetus to the recovery. Along with this recovery, inflation remains subdued, credit growth has turned positive, and business profits are improving, encouraging firms to expand their capacities through new investment. These broad movements are indicative of a positive dynamic linked to the current recovery. The most significant improvement since the crisis, however, has been the strengthening of external stability. Continued current account surpluses have allowed external debt to run down in concomitant with a build-up of international reserves. The coverage ratio of reserve to short-term debt has risen to 290% in July 2002, four times the ratio at the end of 1997. Ladies and Gentlemen, Although I share the view that the worst may now be behind us, I believe Thailand still has some way to go. The key question is how can we make it last, especially now that the global economic recovery  BIS Review 62/2002  1  may be somewhat slower than earlier anticipated? The answer to this question probably lies in the answers to yet another important question: what have we learnt from the recent crisis?

SR 12– 17, for example, describes the essential components of effective corporate governance and sets the expectation that a firm’s board of directors should establish and maintain a firm’s culture, incentives, structure, and processes necessary to promote compliance with laws, regulations, and supervisory guidance and to avoid conflicts of interest and the effective management of reputational and legal risks. Using the trade-off language from earlier, this might be framed as ensuring that potential short-term gains are appropriately balanced against the longer-term objectives of serving clients and maximizing value over time. In my view, this goes further than the incentives, processes, and oversight roles. All of these are necessary, but they are not likely to be sufficient. Firms also need to look at how leadership dimensions drive decisions, whether there is effective challenge from controls functions, how the inevitable mistakes are treated, and how compensation and promotions are determined. Ultimately, establishing and maintaining an effective culture with appropriate risk governance and controls is the responsibility of individual firms and the industry, but the official sector can help highlight best practices, solve collective action problems, and drive toward socially desirable outcomes. And, finally, we must recognize that there are risks that we don’t see. We all suffer from blind spots—issues we should be thinking about, but aren’t. One of the most important supervisory challenges we face is to always ask ourselves—what are we missing? What else should we be studying? Where are new risks emerging?
The nominal interest rate (the key rate) will thus be set by central banks with the objective of achieving a level of actual inflation that is equal to the inflation target. Provided there is confidence in monetary policy, expected inflation will remain consistent with the inflation target. Changes in nominal interest rates will then be fully reflected in real interest rates. This makes monetary policy more effective. The changes in Norges Bank’s monetary policy over the past 25 years are largely in line with international developments. In Norway, the interest rate was used to stabilise the exchange rate from 1986. Capital regulations no longer had the desired effect and were removed. Events in international financial markets in the last half of the 1990s led to more pronounced fluctuations in the exchange rate and demonstrated that the exchange rate cannot be finely tuned. High petroleum revenues, fiscal slippage and expectations of an increase in the use of petroleum revenues contributed to eliminating the effect of interest rate policy on wage formation and fiscal policy. The exchange rate was no longer suitable as a nominal anchor. The Government laid down new monetary policy guidelines in March 2001. Norway’s current system of flexible inflation targeting and the objective of inflation over time of 2 ½ per cent is similar to systems in other comparable countries. The OECD countries have placed greater emphasis on inflation targeting through the 1990s. This has had a substantial effect on the largest capital markets in the global economy, i.e.

2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Furthermore, we have lifted the 2% countercyclical capital buffer on financial institutions. The buffer has been reset to 0% and will remain there for at least the next two years. Lifting the countercyclical capital buffer requirement will make it easier for the banking system to support households and businesses by creating the scope for new lending in an amount ranging up to 350 b.kr., or 12.5% of the current loan portfolio, all else being equal. Moreover, it was decided this past Sunday, at an extraordinary meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, to begin direct purchases of Treasury bonds in the secondary market. This will both support fiscal policy and ensure that lower interest rates are transmitted out the entire yield curve, thereby lowering households’ and businesses’ financing costs, which is the Bank’s objective. Honoured guests: In Iceland’s campaign for independence, currency issues were never mentioned. It was automatically assumed that Iceland would continue to participate in the Nordic currency union as an independent member, as the Norwegians had done after separating from Sweden in 1905. Participation in Nordic currency cooperation was actually written into the agreement made when Iceland was granted sovereignty in 1918. This currency cooperation was based on the gold standard, as were most of the world’s currencies at that time. However, the Nordic currency union fell apart during the post-war years, and Icelanders were forced to rely on themselves as they endured the shocks that pummelled the country during its first years of sovereignty.
After 17 consecutive quarters of sequential expansion, the growth momentum has eased since the fourth quarter of 2007 as anticipated, to around the economy’s medium term potential. On average, GDP grew slightly over 4% in the first half of this year, registering 6.9% in the first quarter and 1.9% in the second quarter of 2008. The weaker performance in Q2 was due in part to a sharp decline in the output of the pharmaceutical sector, which can fluctuate significantly from quarter to quarter because of company-specific production cycles. 4. In the coming months, activities which rely directly on G3 demand, such as electronics manufacturing, or are sentiment-driven like stockbroking, will be more adversely affected by the global headwinds. However, other industries including construction, marine and offshore engineering as well as financial intermediation services are expected to continue to provide support to GDP growth over the rest of 2008. Our assessment for full-year GDP growth remains at 4-6%. Given the uncertainty in the external environment, we will be carefully monitoring the incoming data. 5. CPI inflation came in at 7.5% in June, bringing the average for the first six months of this year to 7.1%. Global oil prices had surged towards the end of May, reaching a high of $ per barrel (WTI) in mid-July. Though they have pulled back slightly, prices are currently around $ up from $ in Q1 this year. Our major trading partners are also facing a rise in inflationary pressures, as fuel subsidies were partially lifted in some of these countries.

Activities in Islamic Finance are growing with the entry of new players, and MAS is honoured to host the 6th Islamic Financial Services Board Summit in May next year. 25. The asset management industry in particular has shown robust growth in 2007. Our latest Asset Management survey shows that the industry has continued its strong doubledigit growth for the seventh year, with a 32% increase in assets under management (AUM), reaching almost $ trillion for the year 2007. In tandem with this growth, the number of investment professionals rose by about 22% to close to 2,200. 26. Reflecting Singapore’s role as an international financial centre, the sources of assets managed in Singapore as well as their investment destination remains diversified. The AsiaPacific region continues to be a key driver of growth for the industry. More than 80% of the total AUM was sourced from outside Singapore with Asia-Pacific accounting for 44% of the total. Almost 60% of the funds managed in Singapore are invested in the Asia-Pacific region. 27. The asset management industry has also seen a greater diversity in terms of players, strategies and products. Large traditional managers continue to expand and anchor their investment capabilities here. Singapore has also grown in importance as a centre for alternative investments such as hedge funds, private equity and real estate. The strong growth of the asset management industry has in turn drawn in several ancillary service providers such as fund administrators and prime brokers.
Furthermore, the fact that open unemployment has not fallen more during the 1990s’ economic boom indicates that the labour market does not function satisfactorily. Another sign that the unemployment problems are structural in nature is the big differences between regions and between occupational categories. In spite of a single monetary policy for the entire Swedish economy, unemployment figures in some regions are double those in others, while the proportion of people receiving benefit from their unemployment fund is twice as high in some occupational categories as in others (see Charts 3 and 4). These differences seem to remain over long periods, indicating low mobility in the jobs market. Another possible indication of such shortcomings is that the same vacancy ratio today is combined with somewhat higher total unemployment than 15-20 years ago. At the same time there is a large, growing need for mobility in the labour market. A comparison of different sectors’ employment growth during periods of expansion and contraction shows that many sectors suffer from job losses in both upturns and downturns, while others see jobs created both in upturns and downturns. The old cyclical pattern, where jobs are shed during a slump and are then created once the economy turns around, no longer appears to hold true. Jobs that are lost in a slowdown are being replaced, especially in manufacturing, to some degree by increased productivity and information technology. Growth is leading to new jobs but in different areas than before.

It became increasingly obvious that the trade-off between inflation and unemployment that had previously been taken for granted did not apply, that each new attempt to raise employment by expanding demand only resulted eventually in increasingly higher inflation (see Chart 1). It is easy to understand why. When inflation rises, it affects the wage demands in the next round of wage negotiations. Wage-earners are interested in the actual purchasing power of their wage and structure their wage demands accordingly. Inflation thus increases without any effect on employment. The conclusion is that in the long run there is no trade-off between inflation and unemployment. But even though inflation does not have any long-term impact on employment, it does affect economic growth and welfare. High inflation disrupts the mechanism by which goods’ relative values are signalled via prices, and distorts the reasons to save. This problem is perhaps especially significant for investment when the return is expected to be yielded over a long period in the future. In such cases, uncertainty over price developments can have a curbing effect. Furthermore, there is an increase in uncertainty about future developments in wages and costs, making it more difficult for agents in an economy to make economic decisions. Lenders may decide to set a higher rate of interest to compensate for any rise in inflation, and firms may decide not to invest in new machinery or to hire employees.
At the end of 2001, it was estimated that the number of persons who had been on sick leave for longer than one year amounted to 120,000, which is almost three times the figure for 1997. The number of those on 4 sick leave shorter than one year is also continuing to rise. The problems are accentuated by the fact 1  According to Stephen Oliner and Daniel Sichel at the Federal Reserve in Washington, the productivity trend has increased by one percentage point during the second half of the 1990s. Half of this increase is a result of investments in IT. 2  Economics council report 2001: kluster.se. Sweden in the new geographical economy 2001. 3  800 000 full-time posts is calculated on approximately 400 000 early retirements plus total sick leave, including the qualification days and absence during the sick-pay period which when translated becomes approximately 400 000 full-time posts (Source: SOU 2002:5, An action plan for increased ill-health at work.) 4  Source: SOU 2002:5, An action plan for increased ill health at work. 4  BIS Review 14/2002  that the pensioner support ratio, which expresses the number of professionally active in relation to those retired due to ill-health or old age, is moving up from 2.1 in 2000 to 1.4 in 2030, according to 5 Statistics Sweden's population forecasts. This means that if potential growth is to be sustained through more people working, more need to participate in working life in the higher age groups.

Economic and financial integration among our countries Our countries have many things in common – these elements are more than sufficient to build and consolidate bridges of cooperation. Turkey is an important market for Albania and its economy. To illustrate my point: ·Turkey is Albania’s fourth trading partner and its sixth investment partner. In the services sector, Turkey is an important destination for Albanian tourists; on average around 80 thousand Albanians travel to Turkey, whereas Albania has welcomed around 69 thousand Turkish travellers in 2016 and 38 thousand travellers over the first six months of 2017. At present, 429 joint-venture companies operate in Albania and Turkish investors have a great interest in Albania. The stock of foreign direct investments from Turkey amounts to around EUR 481 million, or around 4.3% of the Gross Domestic Product at the end of the first half of the current year. These investments are mainly concentrated in areas such as: energy, metal processing, telecommunications and finance. The presence of the Turkish capital in the banking and financial sector. One of the main banks in our banking system has Turkish capital. Recently, in addition to the classical banking activity, the Turkish capital has expanded to non-bank financial institutions, thus helping deepen and develop alternative financial markets. Both our countries have great economic and financial potential, which should not be limited within their geographic territories.
However, less than 5% of the losses were insured, compared to 40% in developed countries2. Over the last five years, the region experienced a series of high-profile and very painful disasters such as the Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan, floods in Thailand, and the Super Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines. Losses from these three disasters are estimated to be close to USD 360 billion3, about the average GDP of the Philippines and Thailand in 2012. As these economies were underinsured, the bulk of the financial burden was ultimately borne by the governments. 4. The development of catastrophe risk management in Asia is still at a nascent stage, compared to more mature markets in the US and Europe. Yet Asia is expected to continue to experience a rise in natural catastrophe losses, as a result of climate change, and rapid population growth, urbanization as well as economic concentration in heavily exposed regions. So With this confluence of factors, the financial burden from natural catastrophes is expected to intensify. 1  “Source: EM-DAT – The International Disaster Database”. 2  “Risk Financing is Key to Building Resilience Against Disasters – Study”, ABD, 31 January 2013. 3  “Based on Swiss Re and Aon Benfield’s estimates”. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Minding the protection gap in natural catastrophe risk management 5. Going forward, governments can no longer act as the “insurer of last resort”.

A corroborative effort involving both public and private sectors, through a public-private partnership, is key, especially in Asia. This is in light of the large size of risks to be insured, the substantive size of population which needs insurance cover but remains unreachable, and the lack of natural incentives for the private sector to offer sufficient coverage for certain risks. A PPP approach recognizes the different roles as well as limitations of governments and private insurers, and can enable innovative solutions collectively. Public-private financing solutions, such as natural catastrophe insurance pools, micro insurance, and alternative risk transfer solutions such as catastrophe bonds, have the potential to enlarge the financial capacity of insurance solutions, by providing affordable cover to a wider pool. With the expertise and capital  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  support from international and regional organisations, the public and private sectors can work together in developing purposeful risk transfer solutions for the region. 12. It is encouraging that governments, regulators, industry, academia and international organisations in Asia have already taken initial steps to develop effective PPPs to enhance natural catastrophe risks management. In October last year, for example, the International Finance Cooperation (“IFC”), a member of the World Bank Group, announced a partnership agreement with MAIPARK Indonesia, a specialised catastrophe reinsurer formed by the government and industry, to develop an earthquake-index insurance product to help protect banks that provide loans to individuals and micro, small and medium enterprises from losses due to natural disasters such as earthquakes6.