samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The federal guarantees for the COVID-19 loans and the liquidity provided at favourable conditions by the SNB have contributed towards Switzerland being able to avoid a credit crunch in the past few months. Page 3/4  Zurich, 17 December 2020 Thomas Jordan  News conference  It will take some time yet before the economy recovers, and uncertainty will remain high for the time being. We will therefore be seeking to do our utmost with our monetary policy to ensure price stability and to contribute to the economic recovery. Climate change and the SNB  I would now like to talk about the significance of climate change for the SNB. We have been working intensively on this topic for some time now. We want to properly assess possible consequences of climate change for the economy, for financial stability, and for the management of our foreign exchange reserves in order to ensure that we can fulfil our statutory mandate at all times. To this end, we also collaborate with other central banks, in particular in the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), and we work together closely with FINMA. As regards monetary policy, we are continuously deepening our analysis into how climate change could affect economic growth and inflation. The dialogue with other central banks is particularly important in this area. When it comes to financial stability, the SNB focuses its efforts on determining the impact of climate risks on the stability of the Swiss banking system.

We strongly support the endeavors of the experts and leaders of this institution to improve their work and we join the requests of the State Statistical Office to the competent state institutions to make efforts to provide better and more stimulating work conditions of this institution that is vitally important for the country. Improvement of the statistics Ladies and gentlemen, Econometric modeling and econometric analyses are worldwide developed practices, in which the National Bank and our country, in general, are still taking the first steps. Given the fact that econometrics is based on statistics, having adequate and consistent statistical data at disposal is of key importance for the development of this type of contemporary analyses. Therefore, again we call for making greater efforts in the area of statistics and for increased awareness of all competent institutions in the country about its vital importance for the national economy. The employees of the State Statistical Office are best aware of how important it is to have detailed statistical databases which are public and easily accessible for the users. They know how important it is to improve the statistics in the area of gross domestic product on a quarterly basis, which is very important for regular and updated monitoring of the economic activity. They have our full support and cooperation for the purpose of providing that statistics, too.
(1) Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia y Peru. (2) Asia EM: China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. (3) Europe EM: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia andTurkey. (4) G3: US, Euro area and Japan. Source: CEIC Data. BIS Review 124/2008  13  Figure 11 Inflation forecast for 2008 (*) (percentage)  9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0  G3  Latin America  Emerging Asia Emerging Europe  (*) Geometric average of inflation forecast. For Latin America and Russia, end of the year inflation data. Source: Consensus Forecasts. Figure 12 Inflation forecast for 2009 (*) (percentage)  7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0  G3  Latin America  Emerging Asia  Emerging Europe  (*) Geometric average of inflation forecast. For Latin America and Russia, end of the year inflation data. Source: Consensus Forecasts. 14  BIS Review 124/2008  Figure 13 Monetary policy rates in the world (percentage) 8,75  4,50  8,50  4,25  8,25  4,00  8,00  3,75  7,75  3,50  7,50  3,25  7,25 Jun.07  Sep.07  Dec.07  Mar.08  3,00 Sep.08  Jun.08  Developing (1)  Developed (2)  (1) Average of reference rates for: Brazil, Colombia, Korea, Chile, China, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Czech Republic, South Africa and Turkey. (2) Average of reference rates for: Canada, US, Japan, Norway, UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Euro area. Source: Central Bank of Chile and Bloomberg.

China is maybe the most emblematic example, but growth has been present in the majority of emerging economies, in particular in Asia and Latin America. One of the reasons why in the ten years before 2006 inflation was low, especially in developed economies, was the supply of goods from emerging markets. 5 Inflation is dependent on the monetary policy decisions and in the extreme, under total inflation control, it could be pegged to the target regardless of the import prices of imports or other factors. However, what globalization permitted was a period of low inflation and high growth (table 1). There was a change in relative prices, with a significant drop in prices of goods from emerging economies going global and, as we see today, with an increase in the relative prices of foodstuff and energy. It can be said, then, that globalization was a productivity shock that allowed for transitory reductions in inflation. However, the phenomenon could not last forever, and is now reversing. The accelerated growth of the past several years finally showed on prices. This can be interpreted as we would analyze inflation in just any country. When potential GDP grows fast, inflation remains constant or may even fall. However, if actual GDP growth runs above its potential or trend, price pressures result. The world economy grew fast, and although China contributed to world potential output growth, inflationary pressures have emerged in those sectors where the demand grew faster than supply, namely oil and foods (figure 9).
The CBC is willing to take all the necessary measures to include the CLP into CLS, such as extending the opening hours of its RTGS system. Page 17 of 20  Central Bank of Chile September 2019  Related to Financial Markets Infrastructures, I would like to mention that last June the CBC issued a new regulation framework which will implement the first Trade Repository (TR) of the country. This TR, called Integrated System of Derivatives Information (SIID, in Spanish), will be owned and operated by the central and, after a transition process, will be in full operation by 2021. The SIID will collect, store and disseminate information of OTC derivatives trades, following the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures (PFMIs) and international standards for reporting. This infrastructure should promote transparency and market conduct, improve decision-making of market participants, and contribute to the supervision processes of the Financial Market Commission. It is important to note that the Minister of Finance has just announced that a bill to regulate Trade Repositories will be sent to Congress. The SIID is perfectly compatible with the existence of private-owned trade repositories. Page 18 of 20  Central Bank of Chile September 2019  According to the latest BIS Triennial Review of foreign exchange and OTC derivatives, the Chilean Peso represents 0.2% of the global FX turnover. We strongly believe that this share should increase in the future.

There are also signs that the strong growth in productivity that has been evident in other countries – for example in the US – is moderating somewhat. And we may see a similar trend in Norway. Second, even without a reversal, profits may fall and unemployment rise. The implications of this will depend on how far businesses, in their search for qualified labour, will go in bidding up wages. It will also depend on how wage-earners react and on their ability to adapt to change. Furthermore, it must be expected that the strong krone will shave profits in some enterprises and industries at the moment, even though many have used currency hedging to safeguard their income. Even though demand for labour is strong, there is a risk that outflows from the labour market to various social security schemes will remain high. Sickness absence is high, and the share of the working-age population on rehabilitation schemes or receiving disability pensions is rising. Many workers choose to take early retirement under the AFP scheme (contractual early retirement) when they reach 62 years of age, and – because this age group is expanding sharply – this number will probably increase in the years ahead. In Norway, close to 600 000 persons of working age receive social security benefits or pensions. This is equivalent to 25 per cent of the labour force. This is the Norwegian economy’s Achilles’ heel. A particularly disturbing aspect is that disability is increasing among young people.
On the other, in a climate of buoyant sales, the widening of business margins continued, albeit at a lesser rate than in previous years. All these factors, combined with the rise in oil prices in the first half of the year, meant that inflation rose in 2006 and that the inflation differential with the euro area stood at 1.4 pp. Inflation began to perform more favourably in the closing months of 2006, a trend that has run into 2007, with the related differential being cut to 0.5 pp. Foreseeably, these inflation dynamics will remain in place for several months. But it should not be forgotten that the improvement has a temporary component, linked to the path of oil prices, and that core inflation remains at 2.5%, despite the continuing restraint of import prices. Price and cost increases in 2006 once again outpaced those of our competitors, prolonging the deteriorating trend of the indices that measure relative prices and costs. Insofar as this difference is not warranted by quality improvements, the trend of these indices reflects a loss in competitiveness, whose adverse consequences for growth will become patent once domestic demand moves back onto a normal footing. The outlook for the Spanish economy points to the continuation of the main features recently observed, namely: the restructuring of spending, thanks to a gradual easing in domestic demand, particularly in consumption and residential investment, and an improvement in the contribution of net external demand.

I would not wish to conclude these considerations on the growing importance of the European component of our financial system without referring in particular to the euro area financial market. Indeed, financial integration is even greater for the European countries making up the euro area: their banking systems draw on a common pool for their funds, through bank loans, medium-term financing  BIS Review 67/2007  7  (whether subordinated or not), securitisations and mortgage covered bonds. The existence of this integrated market for the euro area has allowed certain financial systems in the area to finance their economy’s upturn with the funds from other financial systems operating with less pronounced cycles. This is a most favourable development as it allows financial institutions with surplus funds to earn more efficient and higher returns, thereby sustaining the profitability of their business, while providing demanders of funds with more stable financing for their most profitable lending business. Evidently, the outcome for the euro area economies is a more efficient use of financial resources, which are routed towards the most productive activities. Let me now analyse in greater detail the situation of Spanish deposit institutions. As earlier stated, their banking activity grew notably in 2006 both as regards lending to corporations and to households. This sizeable increase in activity is one of the reasons behind the highly favourable earnings performance of Spanish institutions. However, if activity were to slow in the future, income statement margins might suffer.
In other words, depositors believe that they need very high nominal interest rates in Denars, in order to have a real return on savings, which leads to high interest rates on loans. This phenomenon was not and is not a result of the mistrust in the banking system. Mistrust of depositors comes from the fear that due to possible devaluation followed by inflationary transmission effects, saving in Denars would be insufficiently compensated if interest rates on savings deposits in Denars come too close to the interest rates on deposits in Euros. The stability of the exchange rate which established the idea that price stability is a public good one cannot live without, is the reason why depositors are no longer so much under the  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  influence of this phenomenon. The latest data on the increased saving in Denars, compared to saving in Euros, point to this conclusion. The expectation that the stable exchange rate level will be maintained simultaneously indicates that the difference between real interest rates in Denars and real interest rates in Euros continues to decrease gradually, certainly without any of them remaining on negative territory for a longer time. The National Bank will continue not to hesitate to intervene in the foreign exchange market and increase the interest rate on the main instrument which represents an operational signal. Through these policies the National Bank confirms its capacity and institutional determination.

Finally, I would add that we, at the National Bank, have learned a lot from the mistakes that economic policy-makers have done in the past. But, as confirmed by the history of our institution, monetary independence is perhaps the decision that best helped us to contribute to the improvement of the efficiency of the economic policies, and thus improve the living standard generally, in a state-making, institutional, economic and practical way. Long live this great anniversary! BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
It’s important that this monitor be insulated from the direct influence of politics, giving it freedom to deliver objective analysis that may at times be very unpopular. In Washington, D.C., this took the form of the Office of the Chief Financial Officer; in New York City it is the Independent Budget Office, which is modeled after the Congressional Budget Office. These monitors have proven invaluable in keeping policymakers and the public informed on budgetary matters, and in providing apolitical expertise to assist in keeping budgets on a sustainable course. The second major component is a successful completion of the economic transformation, which is a critical factor for reversing―rather than simply halting―a city’s decline, establishing a virtuous cycle of rising growth and strengthening fiscal outcomes. New York City had the huge benefit of its comparative advantage in finance—an industry that was poised for sustained growth in the post-fiscal-crisis period of the 1980s through the 2000s. Still, the city weathered a lot of shocks during that period, including the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the financial crisis and Hurricane Sandy. It’s also worth pointing out that New York City is still prospering, even though employment in its finance sector has stagnated. This illustrates the need for cities to continually look for new areas of growth, such as health care, technology, and leisure and hospitality services. This is why PROMESA (the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act) emphasizes long-term growth, and why the New York Fed has been focused on identifying impediments to the Commonwealth’s growth.

So gilt price movements necessarily all wash out once the public accounts are compiled on a consistent basis, at least so long as the assets are retained within the public sector 3 . We do not, however, expect to retain all the purchased assets in the Asset Purchase Facility to maturity. At some stage, as the recovery proceeds, the Monetary Policy Committee will need gradually to remove the large monetary stimulus that we have imparted to the economy, otherwise we will be in danger of overshooting our 2% inflation target. That monetary tightening will take the form of some combination of a higher level of Bank Rate and asset sales from the Asset Purchase Facility to the private sector. The process of selling off the gilts can then be expected to push gilt yields back up towards where they would have been in the absence of the Quantitative Easing programme. When the Asset Purchase Facility is finally run down, won’t the closing accounts tell us about the benefits or costs of the programme? The answer to this is: No. The first point to make is that the aim of Quantitative Easing and the Asset Purchase Facility is to help the Monetary Policy Committee achieve its macroeconomic objective, namely hitting the Government’s inflation target without generating undue volatility in output. The accounts of the Asset Purchase Facility are not designed to address these overall macroeconomic costs or benefits, which instead requires an assessment of the impact of Quantitative Easing on demand and inflation.
This risk is tempered in part because the stagnant creation of private salaried jobs and weaker growth in nominal wages continue to be causes for concern. In any case, different surveys show that the companies have improved their prospects for employment and investment in recent months, reflecting their better growth expectations (figure 10). About inflation, the Board estimates that risks are unbiased. The threats to its convergence to 3% are milder, primarily due to the way the improved economic outlook affects the closure of capacity gaps. However, the evolution of the exchange rate over the coming months will pull inflation down below the December expectations, a situation that the Board will continue to monitor with special care, given that it could have negative implications on the convergence of inflation to the target in the policy horizon. In short, as I noted at the beginning, this Report clearly shows a turning point in the business cycle that translates into an upward revision of the growth projections for 2018, giving way to lower risks for both activity and inflation. Anyway, in the baseline scenario that we have just presented, we consider that the risks for inflation and an economy that has yet to consolidate its greater dynamism make it necessary for the monetary stimulus to persist further. Therefore, we will only begin to raise the MPR when we are certain that the process of inflation converging to 3% is consolidating.

Plus, some short-term elements, for example in January and February the exchange 1  As stated in a box in this Report, from now on, and with the purpose of enhancing the transparency the Board’s vision about the economy and the path of monetary policy, it has been decided to add a third year in the projections published on each opportunity. Thus, starting in March 2018, every Report will include the growth and inflation forecasts for the next three years: the current year and the next two. These forecasts will continue to be reported in two ways; the estimated variable in the baseline scenario. For inflation, it will remain a specific number, while for growth it will be a range, as it is now done for the present year and next. This change adds to those adopted in March 2016, when the Board decided to extend by one year the growth forecast for activity. 2  rate decrease coincided with carry trade operations, foreign flows for company acquisitions, pension fund portfolio adjustments and the entry into the market of the funds from the issuance of public debt. All this has led the peso to appreciate more than other comparable currencies (figure 6). However, some of these factors have a transitory impact, with rapid trend shifts over a few days, making it difficult to establish a clear direction. Therefore, the peso has been very volatile in recent quarters, with peaks of over CLP650 in December and lows of less than CLP590 in February.
The only way to restore market confidence and the proper transmission of our monetary policy was a fully credible backstop against disaster scenarios. Our new programme of Outright Monetary Transactions provides this backstop by allowing for unlimited interventions in government bond markets. This commitment has generated a lot of debate. But we have to understand how markets work. Our actions have to send a clear signal to markets that their fears about the euro area are baseless. It is important to stress that “unlimited” does not mean uncontrolled. Most importantly, to qualify for interventions, countries must have agreed a European Stability Mechanism (ESM) programme with strict conditionality and IMF involvement. The ECB will only intervene if the policy conditions under that programme continue to be met. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Conditionality is very important. It ensures that countries continue to reform while the ECB is active. It provides a clear basis for us to terminate our operations if the programme is not complied with in full. And it also protects the ECB’s independence, as we will not be forced to substitute for a lack of actions by governments. Consequences of the ECB’s actions So what can citizens expect will be the consequences of the new programme? Let me emphasise three key points. First, our actions will not lead to disguised financing of governments. Interventions will take place solely on the secondary market, where bonds already issued are traded. This is fully consistent with the Treaty’s prohibition on monetary financing.

Financial union is essential in a single currency area where cross-border capital flows can lead to credit booms and other imbalances – and where the negative effects of a bust can spread rapidly to other members. One essential part of financial union is a single banking supervisor. As you know, the European Commission has recently proposed that the new supervisor should be based at the ECB. This is important to ensure consistency across the euro area and to prevent regulatory capture. Day-to-day tasks, however, would remain with national supervisors who have the competence and resources to implement them. But financial union does not have to imply the pooling of deposit guarantee schemes, an issue that I know is of concern in this country. Organising and funding deposit guarantee schemes can remain a national responsibility, with comparable effectiveness. In the longer term, all four pillars are equally important. They are the bedrock for the enormous potential of the single currency for Europe’s citizens. Completing economic and monetary union would give citizens greater security against any future crisis. It would create the foundations for sustainable growth and employment. For all citizens of the euro area, it is therefore essential that Europe’s leaders stay on course. Thank you for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5