samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Banks mirror their environment but also contribute to shaping it in many respects When the crisis struck, a significant part of the banking system in several countries had to be kept alive by public capital injections and state guarantees; where strains on liquidity were present, the ECB provided a backstop in its capacity as lender of last resort. At the height of the crisis several banks found themselves with large vulnerabilities: they were undercapitalised, had fragile funding structures and, in retrospect, many had engaged in unsound lending practices. For years, banks in creditor and debtor nations had fuelled the BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  imbalances that so greatly contributed to the sovereign debt crisis. Several banks had thrived on complex structured investments whose risks were not well-understood, and a small number of banks had become immersed in dubious acquisitions. This is the “banking narrative” of the crisis. 1 It is true that in some countries banks were also victimised by their sovereign, especially after 2010 when the ratings and access to market suffered the contagion from what was happening with the sovereign debt crisis. With the benefit of hindsight, banks generated instability and are now recognised as having been part of the problem. With the completion of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the phasing-in of a sound banking regulatory and supervisory framework and the strengthening of banks’ governance and ethical standards, banks can become active parts of the solution to the crisis.

However, they will continue to grow above their 2000–2007 average. The change in composition and weight of this group of countries, where emerging economies – especially China – have sharply increased their share, explains this result. While in 2000 emerging economies weighed less than one third in the group of Chile’s trading partners, they are expected to be closer to one half in 2011 (figure 12). On the other hand, a drop in the terms of trade is expected. This last projection is based on a copper price of $ per pound in 2012 and $ in 2013, and a WTI oil price averaging around $ per barrel in 2012–2013 (table 2). In this scenario of reduced external impulse, the Chilean economy is forecast to grow in the range of 6.25% to 6.75% this year, in line with June’s projections. Up to the second quarter, output was growing above the trend and above expectations in the June Report; consumption was slowing down from its strong expansion but not as much as foreseen; the labor market continued to give signs of being tight and financial conditions were still favorable, with credit showing an increasing growth rate (figure 13). Our present scenario foresees that domestic demand will grow 9.1% this year, more than forecast in the last Report. This will reflect the impact of increased gross fixed capital formation of the first half, especially in machinery & equipment, as well as greater inventory accumulation.
Foreseeably, the ongoing moderate rise in interest rates will ultimately emit a timely signal to companies to adjust their investment and business expansion projects to real future earnings possibilities. In that way the financial risks that might jeopardise the continuity of investment will be lessened. The financial institutions of all countries benefited from an exceptionally benign environment, in both macroeconomic and financial market terms. Specifically, the balance sheets and income statements of Spanish credit institutions were notably sound, with returns on equity not only greater than those of the previous year but also far above those relating to risk-free assets. Their ROE stood at around a level of 20%, 3 bp up on 2005, with a spread of 16% over long-term government bond yields. These trends are similar to those observed in major international institutions, which show sound levels of returns on equity along with wide spreads over government bond yields. Yet this situation should not lead to complacency. On the contrary, it is precisely the favourable circumstances of financial institutions, as reflected in their levels of profitability and solvency, that allows us to discuss more freely the risks and uncertainties they must face in the coming years. Financial innovation and the activity of new market agents should be viewed as positive developments.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Strengthening economic structures and fundamentals Statement by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Joint Annual Discussion of the Boards of Governors at the 2005 World Bank-IMF Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 26 September 2005. *  *  *  As we strengthen our global relationships, there needs to be greater engagement with the entire spectrum of member countries. If we are to achieve a more balanced global growth, greater stability in the global financial system and significant progress in the fight against poverty, there needs to be greater appreciation and understanding of the global issues from the perspective of the emerging and developing economies. In the current environment, the risks to global growth have increased, presenting us with an even more challenging environment to achieve these goals. Should the trend of higher oil and asset prices, and rising interest rates continue, their combined effect could diminish the near-term global growth prospects. In this environment, appropriate policies are vital to ensure that any moderation in growth does not evolve into a fundamental economic slowdown. While countries have strengthened their resilience, international cooperation becomes important in addressing these issues. At the national level, widespread reform efforts have intensified. These have been reinforced by regional initiatives. Of equal importance are reforms at the international level.
In our efforts to achieve the desired outcomes, we are cognizant of the need for our leaders at all levels of the organisation to demonstrate the right behaviours to reinforce our desired culture of trust, integrity, collaboration and innovation. When speaking about leadership here, I should add that this is not defined by one’s position, but rather the values that one upholds in doing what is right and in the best interest of the organisation. Times have changed, and a job for life is no longer the goal to aspire to in a career. Rather, our job is now to be life-long learners, and to facilitate that same learning for others. A continuous learning mind-set is what will ultimately differentiate an outstanding career from a mediocre one, and ensure that we can adapt, thrive and be productively and purposefully employed whatever unfolds in the future of work. I hope that as CEOs, CLOs, Heads of L&D and academia, we will be the agents of change to help steer our organisations towards a work environment and culture that will survive and thrive amid the future challenges to come. Today’s event is a step in that direction. Let us learn from distinguished experts and one another today. Let us reimagine organisational learning. Most of all, let us strive together to build a strong, competent and well-rounded workforce. Thank you and I wish all of you a productive and stimulating day ahead. 1 The Future of Jobs Report 2020 by the World Economic Forum 2 OECD (2019).

3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
Mention may also be made of the traditional conservatism in provisioning policy, advocated by the supervisor, which has enabled banks considerably to ease the impact of the economic crisis on their solvency levels. On this latter point, the necessary harmonisation of the supervisory approach within the single supervisory mechanism may be expected in the medium term to entail some significant changes. In particular, it would be reasonable to expect that accounting requirements for banks tend to converge towards a common interpretation of the international financial reporting standards applicable in the European Union by mandate of the related Community Regulation. Consequently, the use of provisions as a supervisory policy tool will foreseeably diminish somewhat in significance, given that the determination of provisions will be steered to a greater extent by general accounting rules that naturally tend to set greater store by transparency and investor safeguards than by strictly prudential considerations. As a result, the supervisory focus for Spanish banks will shift in the new institutional framework from an approach under which the monitoring of accounts was foremost to one where, while maintaining rigour in the revision of financial statements in respect of the classification and recognition of impairment of assets, the demand for high levels of capital is reinforced. Indeed, worldwide supervisory practice is following a clear trend, to which the single supervisory mechanism will immediately adhere according to the supervisory manual under preparation.

Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Catalysing SME growth Speech by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Official Book Launch of “Catalysing SME growth”, organised by Credit Guarantee Corporation Malaysia Berhad (CGC), Kuala Lumpur, 21 June 2013. *  *  *  Saya ingin mengucapkan tahniah kepada CGC atas pelancaran buku “Catalysing SME Growth”, sempena menyambut ulangtahun yang ke-40, yang merakam sejarah CGC dalam menyokong institusi kewangan di Malaysia bagi mambantu menyediakan pembiayaan kewangan untuk perusahaan kecil dan sederhana. CGC sebagai satu institusi, terus kekal kukuh dan teguh serta mempunyai pengetahuan yang dalam mengenai teras perniagaannya setelah melalui pelbagai kitaran perniagaan dan ekonomi sepanjang 4 dekad. Izinkan saya meneruskan ucapan saya dalam bahasa Inggeris. The Malaysian economy has undergone many changes in terms of both size and sectoral composition since CGC’s establishment in 1972. From being an agricultural-based economy with a GDP per capita of RM1,5981, Malaysia has become a more industrialised and serviceoriented economy with a GDP per capita of RM32,124 as at end-2012.1 This remarkable story of growth is supported by the expansion of financing to the private sector by the financial system. In 1973, outstanding loans by commercial banks in Malaysia stood at RM5.5 billion. As at 30 April 2013, total outstanding loans by commercial banks increased to RM1,138.6 billion2 with annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.6% since 1973. The outstanding amount of SME financing stood at RM184.5 billion (16.2%).
Household debt ratio Debt as a percentage of disposable income 350  350  Finland France Germany Portugal Italy Ireland Spain Denmark United States United Kingdom Sweden  300  250  300  250  200  200  150  150  100  100  50  50  0  0 95  97  99  01  03  05  07  09  11  Source: OECD Figure 6. Unemployment Unemployed as a percentage of the labour force, index, 2007 = 100 350  350  Ireland (-40.5 percent) Spain (-22.5 percent) Denmark (-23.4 percent)  300  300  United States (-22.7 percent) United Kingdom (-13 percent) Sweden (-0.0 percent)  250  250  200  200  150  150  100  100  50  50 00  02  04  06  08  10  12  Note. The figures in brackets refer to the fall in real house prices from the peak to the trough. Source: OECD  BIS central bankers’ speeches  17  Figure 7. No new target for monetary policy Inflation  Unemployment (u)  Scenario 1 Scenario 2  After the forecast period  After the forecast period  u*  2%  Scenario 1 Scenario 2  Slow adjustment to the inflation target and long-run stable development Rapid adjustment to the inflation target but build-up of imbalances that are corrected  Figure 8.

I also think that in this context it is useful to look at the international debate. Although the general view is that macroprudential instruments are normally preferable for counteracting this type of imbalance, there is also a lively debate on what role the policy rate should play.15 In this debate, it is not assumed that the policy rate is entirely ineffective and insignificant, and "the jury is still out". A dubious counterfactual experiment I would like to give an example from the Swedish debate, where I believe one has taken the potential of monetary policy to influence expectations too lightly. As I mentioned earlier, it has been claimed that up to 60,000 more people would have had jobs if the Riksbank had conducted a different monetary policy after the crisis and kept the repo rate at the level of 0.25 per cent to which it was cut in July 2009.16 When the Riksbank began to raise the repo rate in the middle of 2010, the situation was such that the Swedish economy had recovered surprisingly quickly from the crisis. Growth was record high, about 6 per cent in annualised terms in the first quarter, and basically all leading indicators of economic activity were pointing upwards. Household lending, which had increased at double figures in terms of annual changes prior to the crisis, had begun to slow down, but the increase in credit was still 9 per cent, far above the increase in disposable income.
And deep and liquid capital markets will also go a long way towards strengthening the international role of the euro and bolstering Europe’s strategic autonomy. Everybody needs to be ready for the profound changes currently sweeping our economies and our societies. The ECB’s ongoing strategy review will ensure that its monetary policy strategy is fit for purpose, both today and in the future. Listening to European citizens’ expectations and better understanding their economic concerns and expectations before making decisions is an important part of this review. [10] If the right actions are taken now, this crisis can be an opportunity for us to create the conditions for more inclusive, greener and more digital growth. To come back to Jean Monnet’s words, this crisis can be an opportunity for Europe to take a step towards the forms of organisation of the world of tomorrow. Conclusion Let me conclude. Almost 60 years ago to the day – on 23 September 1960 – the Europe Bridge crossing the Rhine between Kehl and Strasbourg was inaugurated. It has become a symbol of how close our two countries have become. The success of the Franco-German “bridge” was clearly reflected in the pain caused to families, businesses and commuters by the closure of the Franco-German border at the height of the pandemic, as many of you know all too well. The challenge in front of us is not only to build “bridges” between European countries.

We also need to build bridges to the future and shape a recovery that makes our economies fit for the future. But bridges need solid foundations. Europe’s future must be built on strong democratic legitimacy. Europe’s citizens must be at the centre of the debate about the Europe that we want to build as we emerge from the crisis. As their elected representatives, you, together with the European Parliament, have a crucial role to play in making their voices heard. I now look forward to our debate. [1] In French: “J’ai toujours pensé que l’Europe se ferait dans les crises, et qu’elle serait la somme des solutions qu’on apporterait à ces crises.” See Monnet, J. (1976), Mémoires, Fayard, Paris. [2] In French: “[la Communauté européenne] elle-même n’est qu’une étape vers les formes d’organisation du monde de demain.” See Monnet, J., ibid., p. 617. [3] Following a significant drop in the first quarter of 2020, euro area real GDP fell by 11.8% in the second quarter, resulting in a record cumulative decline of 15.1% in the first half of the year. [4] ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2020. [5] Milasi, S. et al. (2020), “  The potential for teleworking in Europe and the risk of a new digital divide”, VoxEU, 14 August. [6] Lagarde, C. (2020), “Payments in a digital world”, speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank online conference on banking and payments in the digital world, 10 September.
What the public sector can do, is to create good conditions for innovation, entrepreneurship and an efficient labour market. In an open world economy, it is not only companies that compete with one another; places, regions and countries all compete to attract labour, top competence and investment capital. Growth is a necessary condition for increasing welfare and it is only more work and better use of time/working hours (productivity) that create growth. Research and development, investment in innovations and increased efficiency that liberate resources for more productive purposes are a necessary condition for production to be able to manage to increase in value and to survive in competition with ‘low-cost’ countries. However, not everyone will be able to, or need to, work in branches exposed to competition. Large areas of private consumption, notably education, healthcare, care services, personal services, trade in non-durable goods, etc. benefit from local anchorage. Many of the new jobs will in future be in this field. Creating good conditions for the growth of the service companies is therefore an important element of a policy to manage the challenges of globalisation. Mobilisation of resources and the promotion of creativity usually assume cooperation between different interests, within politics, the business sector and academia. Sweden has well-developed traditions to build on, this applies in particular to the local and regional work on developing the business sector.

I have covered just some of the questions which seem to us to be particularly relevant at present – and as markets evolve no doubt new topics and questions will present themselves. I encourage those of you with an interest in this area to keep running with it –your input is of great value to us. Keeping up with fast markets isn’t easy. But with your help I’m sure we can rise to the challenge of ensuring that fast markets are there to serve the real economy, both in good times and bad. Thank you. 20  For example, see Schooling Latter (2016), ‘Electronification of trading’. 9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  9  Chart 1 Recent episodes of heightened shortterm volatility in liquid markets  (a)(b)  S&P 500 Index: 100 = intraday trough 10-year US Treasury yield 120 Sterling/US dollar exchange rate 115  110  105  60  30  0  -30  -60  -90  -120  -150  -180  100 Minutes since trough  Sources: Bloomberg and Bank calculations (a) Sterling flash event 7 October 2016 (blue), US equity markets flash-crash 6 May 2010 (magenta), and US Treasury market flash-rally 15 October 2014 (orange).
This development promised a higher sustainable rate of growth in the US economy and higher corporate earnings growth. That expectation contributed to a rapid rise in equity prices, especially in the "high tech" sectors, which in turn helped stimulate both business investment in the US and consumer demand causing the private sector to move into financial deficit. It also attracted massive direct and portfolio investment inflows from abroad which over-financed an increasing current account deficit in the US and caused the dollar to strengthen against other currencies. By the first half of last year the US economy was expanding at a rate of over 5%, which even on the most optimistic view of underlying productivity growth was clearly unsustainable. The pace of demand growth in the US needed to slowdown – as of course it has. The big questions now are about the extent of the slowdown and how long it will last. And the reality is that no one can be confident that they know the answers. What we do know is that the US data on the whole have not so far been as weak as many commentators predicted. Consumer spending in particular has held up reasonably well, though there has been a fall-off in investment growth, as well as a sharp downwards stocks adjustment and an associated decline in US imports.

The announcements following the recent G20 Summit and the associated announcements of the Financial Stability Board reflect the international economic regulatory cooperation that will set the agenda for the conventional standard setting bodies to put in place a framework to strengthen the international regulatory standards. It will also form the basis by which assessments will be made by multilateral agencies such as the IMF. It is therefore important for there to be engagement with the prudential standard setting entities for Islamic finance, not only to raise awareness of whether the new standards being introduced can be applied to Islamic finance and whether modifications need to be made but there could also be possible consequences that are unintended. Equally important is for there to be recognition of the standards that have been issued for Islamic finance specifically by the Islamic Financial Services Board. As a growing component of the international financial system, it becomes important for the interface and engagement with the international standard setting entities to take place given the common interest of global financial stability. Let me conclude my remarks. While the inherent strengths of Islamic finance have contributed to its viability and resilience, going forward into the future, the foundations for its sustainability as a competitive form of financial intermediation will continue to be strengthened.
Full details of the survey will be made available in an article published in the 2010 Q4 Quarterly Bulletin on 13 December. 2  Those developments are also consistent with results from the Deloitte CFO surveys – the 2010 Q3 survey indicated that a majority described credit as easily available for the first time since the survey began in mid-2007. BIS Review 161/2010  3  has been maintained at £ billion. Although monetary policy has not been eased substantially further over the past year, the stance of policy remains highly stimulatory and continues to provide significant support to economic activity. The level of sterling following its substantial depreciation through 2007 and 2008 should also aid the recovery by encouraging a rebalancing of our economy towards external demand. However, at first blush, the support provided by the lower level of sterling over the past year looks distinctly underwhelming. Yes, the most recent data suggest that net trade made a positive contribution to growth in the third quarter of this year and this is encouraging. But these early estimates are noisy and prone to revision. Stepping back, net trade has detracted from growth over the past year. And within that, the growth of exports has underperformed expectations, especially when judged against the acceleration in global demand. However, the story is somewhat different if we look at the performance of goods and services exports separately. The lower level of sterling does appear to have supported goods exports, which have increased by well over 10% over the past year.

Michael Gondwe: Skills development as a catalyst for youth employment promotion, income growth, and micro, small and medium enterprises Keynote address by Dr Michael Gondwe, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the stakeholder consultative workshop, organised by the Technical Education, Vocational and Entrepreneurship Training Authority (TEVETA) of the Republic of Zambia, Lusaka, 18 October 2012. *  *  *  Chairperson Ladies and gentlemen It is indeed an honour and privilege to make this keynote address on skills development as a catalyst for youth employment promotion, income growth, and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) development. Mr Chairman Over the recent past, macro-economic stability and appreciable economic growth has been achieved in Zambia as reflected in: i. Positive real GDP growth averaging 6.5% per annum in the last 5 years coupled with rising per capita incomes;  ii. Falling inflation, relatively stable exchange rate and downward trend in lending rates;  iii. Favourable external sector performance; and  iv. Stability and growth in the financial sector;  The main challenge that still remains is that of meeting the basic needs of the majority of Zambians, in particular our youth and women, who suffer the brunt of high unemployment. It is for this reason that action is urgently needed to boost skills development in order to enhance productive capacities, investment and decent jobs to sustain the incomes of working families, the poor and the vulnerable.