samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Chart 3: Onshore and offshore rates for 3m dollar funding OIS +[25bps to 50bps] Central bank USD swap line rate Onshore via USD LIBOR Offshore via EUR Offshore via JPY Offshore via GBP  15 Mar: Swapline rate and maturity enhanced  20 Mar: Swapline frequency increased  Chart 4: Dollar swaps outstanding 20 Mar:  USD bn  Frequency increased  Other Bank of Canada Swiss National Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan European Central Bank Total  Per cent 3.5 3.0  15 Mar: Swapline rate and maturity enhanced  2.5  9 Mar 2.0 1.5  Mar.20  700  600 23 Mar: Federal Reserve announces further 500 measures  $ bn  700 400  20 Mar: Swapline frequency increased  600 300 500 200  400 100  Apr.20  May.20  200  1.0  100  0.5  Feb 20  Mar 20  Apr 20  May 20  0.0 Jun 20  Sources: Bloomberg and Bank calculations. Offshore funding calculations use FX swaps referencing 3 month Libor. The dotted light blue line indicates that prior to the 15 March 2020, swap lines were only offered at a 1-week, not 3 month, maturity. 300 0  0 2007  2009  2011  2013  Mar 20  Apr 20 May 20  Sources: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve and Bank calculations.

Mojmír Hampl: Monetary policy and the current macroeconomic environment in the developed world Speech by Mr Mojmír Hampl, Vice Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the Deutsche Bank Prague Client Conference, Prague, 25 October 2016. * * * Ladies and gentlemen, Good afternoon. Thank you very much for inviting me again to your flagship event. It is my utmost pleasure to be here. Actually, this is the third time in a row I have had the chance to speak here. In 2014 my topic was, quite expectedly, the exchange rate commitment and its introduction in November 2013. I recently looked at my slides from 2014, and I would not change anything about them. Only the timing of the exit has changed – quite radically, I have to admit. The following year, 2015, the obvious topic was a comparison of the Czech and Swiss cases. This was especially interesting given the abrupt and completely surprising Swiss exit from their exchange rate commitment in January 2015. I thought to myself: “What would be a natural candidate for this year?” I put my mind to work and suddenly a topic appeared: our own Czech exit, our own way of abandoning the exchange rate commitment, which is almost three years old now. However, I somehow feel that the exit will be a key topic for your questions and comments. So, I eventually decided to speak about something else, something more abstract and may be a bit more general: the constraints on monetary policy in the developed world.
Due to the past few years’ wage settlements, households have strengthened their financial position at the expense of private and public enterprises. House prices have edged up after stagnating earlier this year. Household borrowing has moderated somewhat, but is still high. Against this background, growth in private consumption is expected to be fairly high in the period ahead. Consumer spending on goods is rising, pointing towards growth in private consumption this year on a par with our projections in the June Inflation Report. 1  Mainland GDP is projected to rise less than trend growth this year and to reach trend levels in 2004. In 2005, GDP growth is projected to be higher than trend growth. Investment activity in mainland Norway is low. Investment in the petroleum sector is rising, but a large share of the increase in demand is being met by imports. Public consumption increased sharply in 2002, but there will be little stimulus to the economy from the public sector this year. Growth will mainly be fuelled by private  1  Projection in Inflation Report 2/03 based on assumptions concerning forward rates and a gradually declining krone exchange rate. BIS Review 38/2003  3  consumption in the second half of this year and into 2004. We expect that investment in mainland enterprises will gradually pick up from a low level. In order to set an appropriate interest rate, it is important to be be able to form a reasonably accurate picture of the economic situation.

There is substantial scope in the region for brokers to better understand the risk profiles of SMEs – specifically how they are affected by loss events and what it would take for them to recover – and to work with insurance providers to lower the costs of insurance through innovative solutions and better data. A key focus of Bank Negara Malaysia in the coming years will be to provide an enabling environment for insurance brokers in Malaysia to develop the technical, financial and operational capacity that will enable them to effectively support businesses in both mainstream and niche areas under the new economic landscape. In this connection, the Bank will be introducing new measures to foster greater competition, and expand opportunities for brokers to forge strategic partnerships for long term growth. This will include specific measures with respect to foreign participation in the insurance and takaful broking industry in line with the recommendation of the Bank’s Financial Sector Blueprint 2011 – 2020. The Bank expects to make further announcements on this in due course. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  The evolution of insurance broking also raises important questions for managing conflicts of interest. Insurance brokers are often well placed to offer a broad range of services that may go beyond advising on and securing insurance solutions. These include an expanded role in risk consulting and management, the administration of employee benefit schemes, and claims handling services provided for a fee.
Finally, there are some signs of a maturing of the global corporate sector credit cycle and this has the potential to generate tensions in global financial markets, especially credit derivatives. 3. Global macro-financial environment  Let me now illustrate the analysis behind our assessment in more detail, starting with the global macro-financial environment where the ever-expanding current account and financial imbalances and the high oil prices continue to feature as prominent sources of risk. BIS Review 50/2006  1  The Chart on the left draws your attention to the scale of global financial imbalances and to the fact that the United States remains the largest debtor country. However, there have been changes in the relative importance of global creditor countries. Indeed, the aggregate contribution of the Asian economies to financing the US deficit has broadly stabilised while the oil producing countries have surpassed them in importance. There have been concerns about the sustainability of global current account positions over the past six months as the cyclical support for the US dollar has been gradually waning. In this context, I would like to draw your attention to Box 1 of the Review that contains an overview of the recent debate on this topic. Oil prices have been volatile and they have surged further since November last year, against a background of persistently strong demand and renewed geopolitical tensions.

At the same time, the pressures on the productive system appeared to be particularly strong in France. The Banque de France’s surveys indicate that the production capacity utilisation rate of over 87% is almost three points higher than its long-run average. Recruitment has become increasingly difficult: according to the INSEE surveys, 53% of industrial companies reported difficulty in hiring new staff in October 2000, against 39% in January 2000 and 32% in October 1999. This was the information available to me on 20 December 1999 when I commented on monetary policy developments in 1999. It is the highest level ever recorded in these statistics. These pressures on the productive system have been corroborated by the sharp increase in imported capital goods and manufactured products. Price stability: the monetary policy decisions of the Eurosystem The recent decisions should be assessed against the price stability objective assigned to the Eurosystem by the Treaty on European Union. In its pursuit of transparency and accountability, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided in October 1998 to give a precise definition of price stability as being a year-on-year increase in the euro-area HICP of below 2%. Its success in meeting this objective, which is the same as that adopted by the Monetary Policy Council for French monetary policy when the Banque de France became independent, should be assessed in the medium term.
[slide] This improvement in investment is underpinned notably by ongoing growth in lending to the private sector, at 2.5% year-on-year in August 2017 for firms and at 2.7% for households, with interest rates also remaining very low. We are also observing favourable developments in inflation, which is gradually moving back towards our target of 2% over the medium term [slide]. After peaking at the start of 2017, the inflation rate stood at 1.5% year-on-year in September. This performance remains below our inflation aim, partly reflecting headwinds due to the past appreciation of the exchange rate. However, for 2017 as a whole, euro area inflation, at 1.5%, should be much higher than a year ago. For the next few years, we foresee inflation at 1.2% in 2018 and at 1.5% in 2019 – with a change in composition: less “energy” inflation, more underlying inflation. This represents a first success: our monetary policy measures have succeeded in warding off the risk of deflation which was still threatening the euro area last year – we mustn’t forget that inflation was declining in April 2016, standing at -0.2%. That said, despite the progress made towards our target, it is still incomplete. Underlying inflation, excluding energy and food, has admittedly increased – rising from 0.8% in the first quarter of 2017 to 1.1% in September 2017 – but it  Page 3 sur 8 still remains at subdued levels, despite the strong recovery in activity and employment. A significant factor is the relatively low nominal wage growth.

This may become a problem for the euro area, if such differences become persistent and hamper the transmission of monetary policy and the smooth functioning of the currency union. The ECB can only make monetary policy for the euro area as a whole, without tailoring it to the needs of any particular country. This makes it vital that such divergences in national inflation and real interest rates are kept in check by national structural and fiscal policies. Government support measures that are taken to shield the economy from the impact of high and volatile energy prices must be temporary and well targeted so that they preserve the right incentives for consumers and energy producers, and do not overburden government finances. In setting monetary policy, central banks must not hesitate to fight high and persistent inflation. Keeping prices stable is the best contribution we can make to the economy, and doing so is essential if we want to see purchasing power recover and businesses regain the confidence to invest and create jobs. If we hesitate, we may later have to raise interest rates much higher, and keep them high for much longer, in order to get inflation down to its target of two per cent and to keep it there. With this I will conclude. Thank you for your attention, and I will be happy to answer any questions you might have. 7/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  1 ECB Economic Bulletin 7/2022 2 Bruegel: Does inflation hit the poor hardest everywhere?
8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  and financial expectations, on our survey website, shown on Slide 5. In addition to providing national figures, we show trends for different demographic subgroups. Current trends and additional research So far, we have discussed the elicitation of density forecasts for a single variable of interest. In addressing various policy questions, however, we may be interested in the subjective joint probability distributions for two or more variables. For instance, if we are interested in households’ expectations about real wage growth, we may want to elicit the joint distribution over future outcomes for both inflation and nominal wage growth. Measuring the joint distribution of expectations over income and spending growth may also be very useful. This is an area at the frontier of current research, and more work is needed to test alternative ways to elicit joint subjective distributions. At the New York Fed, we have experimented with questions asking for density forecasts for one variable, conditional on ranges of outcomes for the other variable of interest. These conditional probability distributions, together with the outcome probabilities for the conditioning variable, can be used to recover the subjective joint distribution for each respondent. For instance, in the New York Fed’s Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD), we have fielded questions to elicit the joint probability distribution for the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the state of the economy. We might also be interested in exploring the cross-section of density forecasts across respondents, for example, demographically.

Designing survey questions for household inflation expectations The launch of the SCE followed an extensive testing phase, dubbed the Household Inflation Expectations Project (HIEP), which was initiated in 2006 to explore the feasibility of implementing a new survey of consumer expectations with a focus on inflation expectations.16 The HIEP had several objectives: to improve existing measures of consumer expectations, to clarify the process of expectations formation and updating, and to study the links between reported expectations and actual behavior in a variety of realms. The HIEP set up a working group – composed of New York Fed and Federal Reserve System economists, academic economists, behavioral psychologists, and survey design experts – that devised, conducted, and analyzed a series of cognitive interviews and experimental surveys to explore various dimensions of the planned new survey. In particular, the HIEP analyzed the information content of the inflation expectations questions in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the primary source of  14  Most of these surveys are repeated at a yearly frequency. The SCE currently contains quarterly surveys on the housing market; the labor market; informal work participation; and consumption, saving, and assets. A subset of these surveys is wholly or partially designed by other Federal Reserve Banks. 15  Bruine de Bruin et al. (2016). 16  See van der Klaauw et al. (2008) and Armantier et al. (2013) for overviews.
First, the effects of the pandemic have significantly increased demand for certain categories of spending, especially for durable goods and housing. This increase in demand is occurring while supply in these sectors is being adversely affected by the pandemic. The case study for this dynamic is the automobile sector. The combination of high demand and supply shortages has led to historically low inventories. Customers are lining up to buy cars but are finding the dealer lots empty. It's a seller's market, and prices have soared. New car prices are up nearly 15 percent since the start of the pandemic, and used car prices have skyrocketed, rising more than 50 percent. Another prominent example is housing. With remote work policies in place, many people have relocated-buying larger homes in the South, in the suburbs, and in more affordable cities. This shift has caused demand for housing in some regions to far outstrip supply, while new housing construction has been held back by shortages in labor and materials. The imbalance between demand and supply has led to bidding wars. Homes have sailed off the market at record prices, with many purchased sight unseen. This combination of high demand and crimped supply has also resulted in rapid increases in rents, especially for apartments coming onto the market. The second major imbalance is in the labor market, where overall demand far exceeds existing supply.

This will also turn down the heat in the labor market, reducing the imbalance between job openings and available labor supply. 2/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  While the Federal Reserve on its own cannot address the global nature of inflation, we are not acting alone. Many other central banks are also taking steps to curb inflation. Taken together, these actions should help restore balance to supply and demand globally. That, in turn, should help diminish supply-chain bottlenecks and reduce inflationary pressures. Taking Action In the United States, the FOMC is taking strong actions to restore balance and bring inflation down. So far this year, the FOMC has raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, including a 50-basis-point increase announced after our meeting last week.1 In addition, the FOMC has indicated that it anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. I expect the FOMC will move expeditiously in bringing the federal funds rate back to more normal levels this year.
16  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  17  18  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  19  20  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  21  22  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  23  24  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  25  References Acheson, G, Hickson, C and Turner, J (2010), “Does limited liability matter?” Evidence from nineteenth –century British banking, review of Law and Economics, Vol 6(2), pages 247–73. Admati, A and Hellwig, M (2014), “The Bankers” New Clothes: What’s Wrong with banking and What to Do about it’, Princeton University Press. Alessandri, P and Haldane A G (2009), “Banking on the State”, speech delivered at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, available at: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/speeches/2009/speech409. pdf. Allen, F. and Gale, D (2000), “Comparing financial systems”, MIT Press. Asker, J, Collard-Wexler, A and De Loecker J (2014), “Dynamic Inputs and Resource (Mis)Allocation”, Journal of Political Economy, vol 122. Bagehot, W (1862), “Limited Liability in Banking” – I’ and “Limited Liability in Banking” – II’ in St John-Stevas, N (1978) “The Collected Works of Walter Bagehot Vol. 9”, The Economist, London. Bailey, A (2014), speech delivered at the City Banquet London, available at: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2014/speech763.pdf. Becht, M, Bolton, P and Roell A (2011), “Why Bank Governance is Difference” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol 27.

Pending the enactment of the new legislation, the Central Bank too issued as far back as 2001, ‘Know Your Customer’ (KYC) guidelines to all banks and urged adherence when dealing with clients and counterparties. We cannot however be satisfied with the results because it is unlikely that terrorism activity in particular, on the scale that has been unleashed in Sri Lanka, could have taken place if these measures to combat terrorism financing and money laundering had in fact been effective. We believe, the measures introduced have only marginally deterred terrorism financing from delivering such ill-gotten funds to destabilize our country, particularly before 9/11/2001. As many know, Sri Lanka has been crying foul for many years about fund raising for terrorism, taking place in many countries, where the funds were used to procure and supply weapons to wage terrorist activity in our country. Sadly, our pleas were not taken too seriously. But the world took greater note of this scourge after 9/11/2001. Fortunately for us, post 9/11, anti money laundering and terrorism financing measures were pursued with vigour at international level and these processes have been evolving rapidly in recent years. The international community has witnessed the use of increasingly sophisticated methods to curtail the move of illicit funds through the financial systems across the globe. Sri Lanka, naturally, was keen to support this global effort and soon established a comprehensive legal and institutional framework for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism.
Indeed, the spirit of "acting for greater good" is clearly manifested by all those who are involved in the organisation of this conference. We are also very pleased in having participants as well as experts and resource persons of multilateral agencies from as many as 12 different countries. The attendance of so many participants and experts from the domestic and the international community for this conference speaks volumes for the importance of this subject and the universal relevance of the issues to be deliberated in this conference. I would like to extend my heartfelt appreciation to the speakers and moderators who had make their way to Kuala Lumpur from all around the globe; it is indeed an honour to have all of you here to speak at this important conference. Our thanks to those international multilateral institutions in working with longestablished domestic and regional organisations in participating or organising regional conferences on topical issues. On a few occasion, we have observed some multilateral institutions upstaging these regional bodies. This is not beneficial nor the right thing to do. It is better to collaborate and avoid duplicity so that, overall, it will be a win-win for all parties. I. Remaining vigilant in facing turbulence amid economic downturn regionally and globally  The current global financial crisis is centred in the advanced economies and the severe financial instability and the resultant economic downturns has affected and infected the developing world as well. This shows that we live in an increasingly interconnected world.

It is our expectation that the board of directors and senior management of institutions to play their roles in ensuring that the compliance programme is fully implemented and that any money laundering and terrorism financing activities are promptly detected and reported. Hence, I urge all reporting institutions to improve both the quantity and quality of STR submitted. In the same vein, the FIU will continue to improve its feedback mechanism to reporting institutions. The fourth area is to give greater emphasis on compliance. This is important so as to improve the compliance level among the reporting institutions in order to preserve the integrity and stability of the financial system. More focus will be given to enhance and raise the compliance level among DNFBPs in view of the emerging risks. To this end, greater collaboration between the FIU and the various self-regulatory organisations would be pursued actively during the year. BIS Review 46/2009  3  The fifth and last area is to ensure that the enforcement of the AML/CFT regime should be achieved without undue increase in the regulatory cost. It is important that the controls in place are commensurate with the associated money laundering and terrorism financing risks and the risk mitigation measures are adequate. This underscores the progressive introduction of more risk-based approach in the national AML/CFT regime. I understand that this is among key topics to be discussed in this conference, and I am sure it will generate interesting discussions between the experts and the participants.