samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
For example: •  their financial markets are typically more volatile than those in advanced economies, and so is their GDP growth, which at the same time is higher on average than in advanced economies;  •  these countries are also typically experiencing stronger credit growth, as their financial sectors are in the process of catch-up;  •  they usually have lower credit ratings and shallower government bond markets, which in some cases implies a lack of high quality liquid assets, a lack of adequate collateral etc. Saying that, I must stress that this difference does not apply to some; my country is a testimony to this;  •  the countries face a whole range of home-host issues, as many globally significant financial institutions operate branches or subsidiaries in those countries. These are just examples of features which could possibly interact with the Basel III framework in emerging economies in a way that was not originally intended. As I see from the topics covered by your workstream, you touch on all these aspects, so there is a chance  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  that the paper that will emerge out of your contributions and out of the discussions you will have today will be useful for regulators in EMSEs and for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision as well. Hopefully, today’s workshop will help you with this.

The exact timing of the relaxation of restrictions is unclear, but once it occurs we could find that this has an impact on this supply source, with potential consequences for monetary policy. Another unknown is the impact on demand in the UK economy. It seems pretty clear that migrant workers will spend at least a proportion of what they earn here, even if many will also repatriate savings to their home countries. The second dimension is bigger picture and less direct. Indeed some may not categorise it in terms of the labour market as such as it has an impact in a number of ways. But I like to think of it in labour market terms. I am talking about the entry of the new Asian economies, and in particular China and India into the world economy, and the ability of countries such as the UK to benefit from the much cheaper wages paid in those countries by sourcing the production of both goods, and increasingly services, to such countries. There is nothing new about the process, based as it is on the age old law of comparative advantage. But what is new is the sheer size of those economies, containing as they do over three times the number of people in the EU and USA combined on the one hand, and the willingness and ability of management of firms in the UK to benefit from them.
17 In order to counterbalance the scale and persistence of exchange rate movements, UK monetary policy needs to support a continued firming in the growth of wages and unit labour costs. The stronger the drag from foreign cost pressures, the more domestic costs will have to run above past averages. Financial channels The increased integration of the global financial system has important implications for global and local inflation dynamics. Global financial cycles of the type described by Helene Rey at this Symposium two years ago can amplify changes to the monetary policy transmission mechanism through liquidity and credit creation and destruction. Financial crises and sudden stops can spread weakness and, on balance, disinflation. The global demand shock resulting from the global financial crisis was a dramatic and painful example of the broader phenomenon of increasingly synchronised changes in global financial conditions. At the core of the global financial cycle are globally-active banks, which are key propagators of financial conditions across borders. Looser financial conditions in banks’ primary funding markets, normally in US dollars, can encourage a build-up of leverage and translate into increased cross-border lending and currency appreciation in the countries in receipt of the capital flows. 18 An issue at present is the possibility of these mechanisms working in reverse, perhaps in the face of a tighter US policy stance. Capital reversals and dollar appreciation could tighten financial conditions globally, with a knock-on impact on the balance sheets of borrowers with currency mismatches.

10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 6 Global imports of goods and services (% of GDP) Import share of GDP  Per cent  35 30 25 20 15 10 5  1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012  0  Note: Value of total imports of goods and services divided by world nominal GDP. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database and Bank calculations. Chart 7 Persistent divergence in the price of (core) goods and services  Note: Six-month average of the log-difference of core (excluding food and energy) goods and services price indices (2005=100). The US series uses PCE price indices and begins in 1999 due to data limitations. Sources: DataStream, national sources and Bank calculations. BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  Chart 8 Average world output gap and core inflation (weighted by UK-import shares) 4  Per cent of world GDP  Percentage change on a year earlier  2.5  3  2.3  2  2.1  1  1.9  0  1.7  -1  1.5  -2  1.3  -3  1.1  -4 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Global core CPI inflation (RHS) UK-wtd world output gap (LHS)  0.9  Notes: Average world output gap and core inflation (weighted by UK-import shares). Source: IMF, ONS, DataStream, and Bank calculations. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Subsequently, growth in labour costs picked up, and the rise in prices for goods and services produced for the Norwegian market accelerated. The upturn peaked in 1997, with mainland GDP  BIS Review 43/2003  1  growth approaching 5 per cent. In 1997 and 1998, the economy shifted from an upturn with high growth rates to an expansion with lower growth but low unemployment, labour shortages in many sectors and strong growth in labour costs. Capacity utilisation in the mainland economy has subsequently fallen again and is now on a par with the level in the years 1995-1997, before cost inflation accelerated. The output gap has again closed. At the same time, wage growth has dropped to a more sustainable level. Labour costs rose more rapidly in Norway than among its trading partners due to the high pay increases negotiated by the social partners during the period of strong economic expansion after 1997. Until 2000, this was counteracted by the depreciation of the krone. Companies with income in foreign currency could cover the higher labour costs with the increased revenues which were a result of the weaker krone. When the krone began to appreciate, however, it did not take long before relative labour costs measured in a common currency rose sharply. Despite this development, the strong wage growth continued. This contributed to a deterioration in the exposed sector’s competitiveness. Despite a pronounced downturn among many of our trading partners last year, annual wage growth in Norway increased to 5¾ per cent.

We will be having six rounds of talks each year with business and community leaders concerning financial developments in their enterprises and industries, with about 200 visits in each round. The selection of contacts represents the production side of the economy, both industry-wise and geographically. In the course of 2003, the number of contacts in the network will rise to about 1000 persons. These individuals will be contacted once or twice a year. Kunnskapsparken in Bodø conducts the contact meetings in Region North. In general, our contacts in Region North reported at the end of August and the beginning of September that developments continue to be sluggish. The fishing industry is still experiencing difficult times, even though some enterprises have reported a slight increase in demand for certain species and products. Companies supplying goods and services to the fisheries and aquaculture sector are experiencing a decline in demand and output and a number of companies only have a few service orders. The household service sector is reporting a small increase in demand, whereas companies’ demand for services is generally stagnant or falling slightly. The public sector is reducing the number of employees, while retail trade and the construction sector are planning a slight increase in the number of employees. The rise in costs in the last few years has not fed through to prices due to intense competition, both from abroad and from other market participants in Norway. Instead, enterprises has reduced activity and implemented extensive efficiency- enhancing measures.
Speeches 29 Jun 2022  Opening Keynote Speech at ASIFMA Compliance Asia Conference 2022 : Building the right talent pool for Hong Kong Arthur Yuen, Deputy Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority Ladies and gentlemen, Good Morning to all of you, 1. Let me start off by thanking ASIFMA for inviting me to this Compliance Asia Conference. With the COVID situation finally settling down, it’s the right time to re-direct some of our fire-fighting energy back to more forward looking topics. And I think revisiting some of the issues about talent pool for the financial industry is indeed a good starting point. 2. For many of us, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 is already a distant memory. Most of us may have forgotten the main factors leading to such a painful experience. Just to name a few issues contributing to the crisis: risk takers were not facing the consequences of taking undue and excessive risks; and no proper mechanisms were in place for shaping or influencing the behaviour of financial practitioners. As a banking supervisor, the HKMA cannot afford to forget those lessons. Instead, we have been working hard, even throughout the pandemic in the past two and a half years, to close those gaps. More recently, the HKMA has made good progress in cultivating sound bank culture and preventing “bad apples” from rolling among financial institutions. I would like to take this opportunity today to share with the audience our latest developments on those fronts.

Caleb M Fundanga: Moderating the impact of the global meltdown on the Zambian financial system Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the official opening of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Limited Ody’s Excel Centre, Lusaka, 22 April 2009. *  *  *  The Chairman, Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Limited, Mr Michael Mundashi The Managing Director of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Limited, Mrs Mizinga Melu Distinguished Guests Members of the Press And may I simply say Ladies and Gentlemen I am pleased to be here today at the official opening of the new Excel Centre of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Limited. This event is taking place at a time when our economy is faced with challenges emanating from the impact of the global financial and economic crisis. Although the Zambian financial system is not fully integrated with the world’s financial markets, the impact of the crisis is already clear. Mr Chairman, the financial turmoil has resulted in a reduction in projected global economic growth and a decline in demand for commodities. As a commodity exporting country, Zambia has experienced a decline in her export receipts due to the decline in commodity prices reflecting a weak demand for these commodities. The declining export earnings and reversals in portfolio investments have been reflected in the depreciation of the local currency and consequent inflationary pressures towards the end of 2008.
4  The total number in employment (aged 16+) increased by 296,000 between the three months Nov 2009– January 2010 and Nov 2010 to Jan 2011, according to the latest labour Force Survey. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Chart 2 – Employment intentions* Bank of England Agents’ scores 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3  Manufacturing  -4  Services  2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  -5 2011  *: Employment intention scores reflect firms’ expected changes in workforce size over the next 6 months. Source: Bank of England  Vacancy levels are also holding up well and employment surveys – such as the Bank of England’s Agents’ survey also show a reasonably positive picture for employment intentions, as Chart 2 shows. Business surveys from the early months of this year are also consistent with a continuing economic recovery. In the manufacturing sector, all the major business surveys published in the early months of this year – from the CBI, the British Chambers of Commerce, and purchasing managers – are showing record or near-record responses for output and orders, consistent with the strong growth reported by the official output figures. Indeed, the latest CBI Monthly Trends Enquiry of manufacturers, released today, shows one of the strongest responses for expected output growth that we have seen in the past two decades. But – sadly – manufacturing industry is now a small proportion of the UK economy.

4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 3 – CIPS survey activity balances Index of activity (above 50 indicates expansion) 65 Expansion 60 55 50 45 Manufacturing  40  Services 35 Contraction 30 2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  Source: The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply  UK economic growth prospects Looking ahead to this year and next, current forecasts for economic growth are relatively subdued at present. The latest CBI forecast, for example, predicts growth of 1.8% this year and 2.3% next year and these figures are very close to the current Consensus Forecasts of growth for this year and next – 1.9% in 2011 and 2.1% in 2012. Most forecasters expect the manufacturing sector to continue to perform strongly, supported by strong growth across the world economy. Chart 4 – UK and world economic growth Annual percentage change in real GDP 6 4 2 0 -2 UK World (UK trade-weighted)  -4 -6  1989  1991  1993  1995  1997  1999  2001  2003  2005  2007  2009  2011  Note: 2011 growth rate for the UK are consensus forecasts; those for the world are IMF forecasts.
The new supervisory authority is governed by a three-member Board of Directors appointed by the Minister of Commerce. One of the three members is appointed on the recommendation of the Central Bank. Several years ago, we introduced the so-called Basel equity ratio standards for our financial institutions. Being a signatory to the European Economic Area Agreement, Iceland was obliged to adopt European Union financial market legislation based on European Union Directives which has been done. As a result, we have created virtually the same legal environment for our financial system as that of the European Union. Supervisory practices are also similar to those followed in the member countries of the European Union. The Central Bank has been developing its own methods of assessing financial market stability and indicators of weaknesses, focusing more on the overall health of the financial system than that of individual institutions which falls under the Financial Supervisory Authority. Iceland and Europe Iceland has never applied for membership in the European Union and at present there are no plans to do so. Iceland is, however, a member of the European Economic Area, which means that it is a part of the single market of the European Union, entailing inter alia the free flow of goods, services, capital and labour among the member countries. Under the European Economic Area Agreement, Iceland has been obliged to adopt European Union legislation in many areas, as already mentioned. The Central Bank has established close contacts with the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.

In particular, along with the adverse impact that the social distancing measures we may have to maintain in the future may exert on activity, there is a further effect. This is more difficult to measure a priori and relates to the possible and potentially persistent changes in agents’ behaviour in response to the “new normal”. These changes might include modified patterns of consumption and saving, or changes in supply chains or in certain aspects of firms’ operations. All these considerations would warrant qualifying the current recovery as uncertain, to take the second of the adjectives I used earlier to characterise this recovery. Additionally, from the standpoint of the sectors of activity, not all of them suffered on a comparable scale the consequences of the pandemic lockdown measures, as they are not equally susceptible to the imposition of social distancing measures. And the gradual startup in activity is not taking place at the same pace in the different sectors. The earlier normalisation of manufacturing and of certain services coexists alongside a slower than usual recovery in levels of activity in those other services, such as leisure and hospitality, where personal interaction is greater. Here, full normalisation is not likely to be attained until we have an effective medical solution. These differences in the pace at which normal levels of activity in productive sectors are being restored allows us to characterise this recovery as uneven, taking the last of my three adjectives.
Figure 12 Activity gap (1) (2)  Current account: Savings and investment (3)  (level, percentage points)  (percent of annual GDP)  8 Jun.22 MP Report  Sep.22 MP Report  4  32  0  24  -4  16  -8  8  -12  0  -16  -8 19  20  21  22  23  24  External savings Private savings Investment  13  15  Government savings National savings Current account  17  19  21  23(f)  (1) Dotted lines represent forecasts. (2) Projection uses structural parameters updated in June 2021 MP Report (trend) with methodological revision of potential GDP. (3) The government savings component takes as effective data up until 2021 the general government balance sheet; for 2022 to 2024, government savings in the central government balance sheet is used as a projection. (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

Countries that are small, and have less developed economic and financial systems, are open  BIS Review 62/2002  1  and liberalized, and that do not have the range of policy options at their disposal, will be highly disadvantaged in this global market place. It is this globalisation process that will contribute towards widening the existing disparities between nations. Against this trend, the current global economic and financial environment has been characterised by increased uncertainty. There is uncertainty in the global economic outlook, financial markets and geopolitical developments. The expected strengthening of recovery in the advanced economies has yet to occur. Financial reporting irregularities and the weakening of the corporate sector has affected confidence, contributing to the increased volatility in the global equity markets. Further risks also remain on the horizon, including those emanating from structural imbalances in some of the advanced economies. These developments have res ulted in unstable and highly volatile conditions in both the asset and currency markets. However, despite the major declines in asset markets, large shifts in financial flows, significant movements in major currencies, financial stress in the corporate and financial sectors in a number of countries followed by overall economic weakness, the East Asian economies have emerged relatively resilient. Going forward, it is recognized that a higher tolerance level to sudden changes in economic conditions and to the more volatile market conditions is necessary. Building such tolerance levels involves enhancing the capacity, strength and resilience of the economy to cope with the external shocks to the system.
The agreement was followed up by similar, but not as far-reaching, agreements in other sectors. At the same time, there were substantial parts of the labour market that had no such type of agreement. The inquiry led to a new National Mediation Office being established, with the tasks of mediating in labour disputes and acting to promote an efficient wage formation process. The most important change was in my opinion that a third, independent, party was established in the labour market to promote efficient wage formation. The National Mediation Office has the task of keeping up-to-date with the situation in central wage negotiations and acting to ensure that macroeconomic considerations are taken into account in wage negotiations. The Office was also given increased powers of authority to act in connection with central agreement negotiations, for instance, the  BIS Review 21/2006  3  possibility to call the parties to talks, to provide mediation even if one party was opposed to mediation and to postpone industrial action. The wage statistics improved. The National Institute of Economic Research was given the task of annually producing reports on the economic conditions for wage formation. Over the past 10 years wage formation has functioned much more efficiently. Nominal wage increases have been around 4 per cent a year on average, compared with 8 per cent a year in the 1980s. The agreements no longer contain clauses regarding inflation and so on and wage drift is much more limited.

The conversations I have had with leaders in the financial sector over the past few years make it clear that this issue is increasingly recognised as being central to business strategy, not just the confines of Corporate Social Responsibility departments. We have now entered the far more difficult second phase, where we must answer the question of how to turn aspiration into action. That means collecting data, building tools and frameworks that enable changes in strategy and risk management. The publication this week of the CFRF guide and the NGFS reference scenarios is a sign we are making good progress here. The third and final phase - which I hope we are fast approaching - is using these tools to make financial and business decisions that progress us on that orderly transition to net-zero. And developing the metrics that will assure us that collectively we are doing enough. 24 25  See research from BlackRock and Morningstar Morningstar reports total assets in global sustainable funds of $ at end 2019 9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  9  I’ve set out today how the financial sector can play its part in answering perhaps the greatest call to action in its history and the Bank’s role in supporting this. We have already taken the first steps. Now is the time to use what we have learned to make real progress on our journey. To be strategic not responsive.