samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Although the formal guidelines may vary slightly from country to country, I believe it is correct to say that all central banks with an inflation target conduct flexible inflation targeting, that is, they give some consideration to real economic activity. In other words, we are not "inflation nutters” to borrow Mervyn King’s famous expression. Our aim is not in all situations to bring inflation back on target as quickly as possible and at any cost. At the same time, the flexibility is part of our means of conducting monetary policy, which has gradually changed during the period with an inflation target. It is also natural as this type of flexible application of monetary policy assumes that there is considerable confidence in the inflation target – confidence that must first be won. Immediately after the introduction of the inflation target in 1993, there was little confidence in either monetary policy or fiscal policy. Because of this, there was limited scope for giving consideration to the real economy. The Riksbank’s rhetoric and probably also the actual policy were mainly focused on developments in inflation. The underlying factor behind this was probably concern over credibility problems. However, from the mid-1990s the stability of the real economy has gained ground, and the Riksbank has in various ways tried to make clear that we give consideration to developments in production and employment. Let me also say something in this context about risks. More specifically, risks linked to rising asset prices and credit expansion.

5  See Jansson, P., and A. Vredin, (2004), ”Preparing the Monetary Policy Decision in an Inflation Targeting Central Bank: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank”, in the conference volume Practical Experiences With Inflation Targeting, Czech National Bank, Woodford, M. (2005), “Central-Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness”, essay presented at a symposium organised by FRB Kansas City ‘The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future’, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, 25-27 August and Faust, J., and D. W. Henderson, (2004), “Is Inflation Targeting Best-Practice Monetary Policy?”, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, 86(4), 117-143. BIS Review8/2007  5  Openness, clarity and communication This brings me on to the final point that I intend to take up today: openness and communication. Openness and clarity are important when justifying our monetary policy decisions so that confidence in price stability can in the long term be combined with flexible inflation targeting. They are also a condition for retaining the legitimacy of our activities and independence. 6 Moreover, it contributes to greater efficiency and quality in our internal analyses. Openness was therefore given high priority right from the start when the new monetary policy framework was introduced, and it is no coincidence that the Riksbank is usually ranked high in international comparisons of monetary policy transparency in central banks. 7 Let me mention some concrete measures we have taken to increase openness. Three times a year the Riksbank publishes Inflation Reports which include the analytical base for the interest rate decision made.
And taking STIR, bond and  BIS Review 11/2001  3  other contracts together, LIFFE is the largest derivatives exchange in Europe by value, although Eurex is the largest by volume. •  London originates over 19% of cross-border international bank lending, compared with 7% for France and 9% for Germany. •  London has a market share of 55% of underwritten euro-denominated Eurobond issuance, and an estimated market share of 70% of secondary trading in the Eurobond market. •  Around 500 foreign companies are currently listed on the London Stock Exchange. This is more than any other exchange. 59% of global foreign equity turnover is reported to the London Stock Exchange by London market firms. And just under 40% of equity trades reported to the London Stock Exchange by market firms are denominated in euro. •  The market capitalisation of the London Stock Exchange, at & 128;2.7 trillion, is nearly double that of either Frankfurt or Paris. •  London is the largest global centre for the fund management of institutional equities, with $ trillion of institutional equities under management. •  And London is the global market leader in aviation and marine insurance, with a combined market share of 22%. Conclusion It is early days. London is not complacent. But our view is that London will continue to thrive in the 21st century, so long as it remains internationally competitive. In particular, the environment which London provides for financial business must remain attractive and consistent with international 'best practice'.

The FSA brings together within a single organisation responsibility for financial regulation to deal effectively with the oversight of increasingly complex and diverse financial groups. The Bank meanwhile retains responsibility for monitoring the stability of the financial system as a whole. This regulatory structure is designed to provide confidence in financial institutions and markets, whilst not stifling innovation and risk-taking. Indeed the new Financial Services and Markets Act balances the objectives of prudential supervision and consumer protection with an explicit objective of promoting efficiency and competition. •  London has flexible labour markets, and low levels of corporate and personal tax. The UK compares favourably with many other European countries in this regard and has been the beneficiary of high levels of overseas direct investment as a result. BIS Review 11/2001  1  •  English is the language of international finance. •  We are lucky enough in London to find ourselves in a convenient time-zone so that market firms can trade with Asia in the morning and New York in the afternoon. •  And finally, London has great attractions as a place to live! Like Japan, the UK has a long heritage, and a rich culture. The euro is an opportunity for the City, not a threat Since London is an international financial centre, the launch of the euro at the beginning of 1999 was a major event for the City, as well as for the euro area itself.
However, I considered that this risk is slight at present, now that economic activity is slowing down. The labour market usually lags behind production in the economic cycle. Employment has risen rapidly in recent years and when demand and production slow down as quickly as they are now, my assessment was that companies are more likely to cut their workforces rather than raise prices substantially. The redundancies announced at the beginning of the autumn may be an indication that many companies have had to reduce their labour forces. To summarise, my assessment was that inflation would slow down sooner than was assumed in the Monetary Policy Update. It was therefore my conclusion that no further interest rate increase was necessary to bring inflation back on target within a reasonable period of time. Further, my assessment was that the repo rate might need to be cut more than indicated by the proposed interest rate path and I therefore entered a reservation against the new interest rate path. Some concluding thoughts The Riksbank, like many other central banks around the world, is currently facing difficult challenges. But although they are difficult, we are well-equipped to meet them. For instance, we have an entirely different starting point from that during the finance crisis of 1992, which largely concerned problems that had originated here at home. Today we are suffering contagion effects from problems in the US mortgage market, a market to which the Swedish banks have only small direct exposures.

This is done for instance in our Financial Stability Report, which is published twice a year, and in speeches held by Executive Board members. We also try to influence market participants who are important to financial stability. Part of this work includes regular contacts with the banks, other government agencies and our central bank colleagues in other countries. Most of our work concerns preventing problems and ensuring that the payment system functions as smoothly as possible. We can do this in many different ways. Some concrete examples are the recent actions taken by the Riksbank and other government agencies. I shall return to what these actions entail shortly. We work to prevent financial crises from arising. But if they do nevertheless arise, it is also our task to manage them. We have to be prepared to take action although we hope that we will never need to do so. This preparedness includes, for instance, regularly holding crisis exercises, both internally and together with other Swedish authorities, and sometimes together with central banks and authorities in other countries. The work on financial stability is reminiscent of fire safety work. We have to provide information about the risks, but it is also our job to be prepared to put out the “fires”. And to be able to do this efficiently, we must have practised. In purely practical terms, we have the possibility to take a number of different measures if this should prove necessary.
We continue to place an emphasis on promoting the global competitiveness of Thai businesses, while ensuring the integrity of the economic and financial system as a whole, the very foundation of consumer and business confidence. The key challenge this year for the BOT and other policymakers is to preserve the right balance of policy mix, which in turn demands both intra- and inter-agency cooperation. Our common goal is to promote a sustainable growth path and ensure a high standard of living for all Thais. Economic developments and policy implementation in 2012 Last year, the Thai economy had to grapple with the stagnating global economy, volatile capital flows, and challenges in recovering from the flood crisis. Notwithstanding these difficulties, the economy proved to be resilient and flexible enough to withstand various shocks and uncertainties. Indeed, robust domestic demand has become the main engine of growth amid the softening global economy, helped in part by government stimulus measures. Overall economic activities consequently improved, and I would like to thank all parties for their collective efforts. On the monetary policy front last year, a greater emphasis was placed on risks to growth, which justified the accommodative monetary policy stance throughout 2012. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lowered the policy interest rate twice by a total of 0.50 percentage points. The first cut took place earlier in the year, and was designed to help speed up economic recovery after the severe flood.

Some assets will be stranded – such as those in carbon-intensive sectors – while others – such as those in the renewable energy sector – could enjoy strong tailwinds. The value of global financial assets at risk from climate change has been estimated at $ trillion by the London School of Economics1 and $ trillion by The Economist2. Investors cannot ignore these potential changes in asset values. Second, approaches to sustainable investing have developed significantly in recent years. There is growing evidence that investments incorporating strong ESG considerations can reduce exposure to systemic risks and improve resilience to market shocks. Some recent research has found a strong correlation between market performance and ESG ratings, for both equity and fixed income portfolios.3During the early weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, there was also some evidence that major ESG funds were able to outperform broad indices like the S&P 500. Sustainable investing is becoming mainstream. 1/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  More than $ trillion of assets globally are being managed in ESG investments, up 34% from 2016. 4 Global funds linked to ESG principles more than doubled in 2020 compared to just a year before. 5Global investors plan to further double ESG assets over the next five years. 6 Third, investor preferences will change as wealth is handed over to the next generation. We are on the cusp of the most significant inter-generational transfer of wealth in history. $ trillion of assets is expected to change hands between generations by 2030.
First, because a central bank cannot create wealth above and beyond the income derived from its own investments, and therefore cannot finance old age pensions. Second, there are still people who believe that, in the event of an economic slump, the central bank will bring about a sustained improvement in economic performance. It is an illusion to believe that, in the long term, jobs can be created through monetary stimulation. Over a longer period monetary policy is neutral. The third and final reason relates to the fact that it is possible that the response to the demographic challenges of the future might affect the equilibrium real interest rate of our economy – a variable that always enters into our assessments of a given situation.

The world’s financial markets have been plunged into turmoil which some say is unprecedented, or at least comparable to the levels experienced in the most severe financial crises of the last century. Notwithstanding this, our financial system has demonstrated a level of stability which to an extent has been derived from the strong capital positions that have characterised the Zambian banking industry in the past few years. However, this turbulence has already resulted in a reduction in projected global economic growth and a decline in demand for Africa’s exports. Notwithstanding this, we remain confident that the banking sector will continue to show resilience and expansion through branch networks, thereby acting as a channel through which services will be extended to the financially excluded. Ladies and Gentlemen, a recent survey established that fewer than 15% of the Zambian adult population have access to the services provided by commercial banks. The key reasons for this low level of access were cited as the distance that needs to be overcome in order to access the services and the cost of these services. It is therefore a welcome development that commercial banks have responded to these challenges by reaching out through new branches. However, banks need to be mindful of the fact that the many of our people who need these services most of all are not able to bear the heavy charges that are sometimes levied, and the goal of inclusion will stand to be compromised if this matter is not addressed.
Már Guðmundsson: Iceland’s recovery – facts, myths, and the lessons learned Speech by Mr Már Guðmundsson, Governor of the Central Bank of Iceland, at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) City Lecture, London, 28 January 2016. *  *  *  Accompanying figures can be found at the end of the speech. Chairman, Ladies and Gentlemen, I would like to begin by thanking OMFIF for giving me the opportunity to speak to you here today in the City of London about Iceland’s recovery. This is interesting for me because, for better and worse, the UK and Iceland deeply shared some aspects of the financial crisis, and because the City of London has for decades been Iceland’s international financial centre. But it also gives me great pleasure to see so many in the audience who have in various ways helped Iceland over the years. Today I will focus on the recovery from the crisis and the current challenges, including the task of lifting capital controls. But the recovery cannot be understood without an understanding of the nature of the negative shocks that hit Iceland during the crisis. It is well known that Iceland was the first advanced country to experience a full-scale banking crisis in autumn 2008, when its three big cross-border banks failed. It was also the first advanced country to go on an IMF programme during the Great Financial Crisis.

We are currently working on a solution regarding offshore krónur that would fulfil the same criteria regarding the exchange rate and make it possible for us to move to the third and final stage of lifting capital controls, which is vis-à-vis domestic residents. The difference is that this time around we are putting part of our own FX reserves on the table to facilitate the solution. It will be offered in an auction, along with long-term euro and ISK bonds. The aim is to release and tether the offshore overhang so we do not have to worry about it when we lift the controls on domestic resident’s outflows. For that final step, we need a solid external position, a resilient financial sector, and sizeable FX reserves that are to a significant degree not financed by foreign borrowing – all of which we have or are on the way to securing. This is why we bought FX in the market for an unprecedented 12½% of GDP last year and have continued on the same path this year. Before lifting capital controls on domestic residents, we will have to finalise the necessary adaption of monetary policy and financial stability frameworks to the potentially rough seas of unrestricted capital movements.
In Adam Smith’s conception, it is the ‘invisible hand’ of the free market that organises the seemingly chaotic and self-interested activities of human beings into a beneficent and productive social order. For Milton Friedman, ‘the organisation of the bulk of economic activity through private enterprise operating in a free market’ is ‘a necessary condition for political freedom.’ 15. In its daily operation, a free market serves three main purposes. It manages resource allocation by supplying answers for buyers and sellers to the basic economic questions of what, how, and for whom goods and services are to be produced. It provides price discovery by channelling competition and adjusting prices to reflect changes in supply and demand for different commodities. And specifically in terms of money, it arranges financial intermediation by matching the needs of ultimate lenders – or those in possession of surplus loanable funds – with those of ultimate borrowers – or those in need of liquid funds: interest rates, which are determined by the supply and demand of liquidity in the loanable fund market, play a crucial role in this process. BIS Review 35/1999  4  16. The philosophers are agreed that, in general, the less a government has to do with these various functions, the more efficiently the market can do its job: centralised, directive authorities, or ‘big government’, are anathema to true economic freedom; governments should, at most, play a minimal, instrumental role in fostering the conditions in which each individual has the freedom to make his or her own economic choices.

From the position of the BNB and in view of the goals for controlling inflation, it is very important that the country does not assume significant additional permanent expenditures, which are not backed by permanent revenues. There are two groups of risks associated with such an approach: (i) the risk of an inflationary spiral and (ii) the need for painful fiscal adjustments in the near future, whether in terms of revenue, i.e. by increasing taxes, or by cutting costs. Along with external factors, this would lead to a significantly more complicated macroeconomic environment for the Bulgarian banks. In terms of the external factors and their further complication and deterioration because of the war in Ukraine, most important will be the decisions of the big leading central banks, primarily the ECB in our case. There are already clear statements about three things that will happen during the third quarter of this year: (i) the ECB will effectively end net asset purchases from the beginning of July; (ii) subsequently the ECB intends to raise its key interest rates; and (iii) will do it again in September so that by the end of the quarter we will move away from negative interest rates. Obviously, in the following months and at least a year ahead we will be facing the challenge to find the very difficult balance between the measures to control inflation and the measures to prevent recession. How is our banking sector meeting the new challenges? Our starting position remains very good.
The diversity of experiences is also evident with respect to access to mortgage credit, both for households attempting to transition to homeownership and for homeowners who want to trade up. We have also been monitoring mortgage originations at the zip code level using the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel. When we rank zip codes by their 2012 average adjusted gross income, we see mortgage origination volume in the lowest quintile locations was 38 percent of the volume for the highest quintile locations in 2007. By early 2015, this ratio had fallen to only 14 percent. As highlighted by these examples, and as you’ll hear during today’s presentation, data at the aggregate level and at a more micro-level illustrate different sides of the same picture. As such, both must be considered as we work toward fully understanding the economy. I will now ask Aysegul Sahin to provide a detailed account of how various economic outcomes vary across individuals, households and regions. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches

We have also discovered that it is possible to design an e-krona that would not have excessive consequences for monetary policy or financial stability. 5 On the legal side, we interpret this as meaning we have a mandate to issue a simpler, value-based variant of the e-krona that we will develop as a pilot version. We also intend to approach the Riksdag to propose legal amendments that will clarify our mandate and make it possible to issue an account-based e-krona. We need to prepare ourselves for a cashless future As regards the rapid rate at which cash usage is declining, the Riksbank Committee has submitted an interim report with a few proposed measures to brake this development. 6 The decline in cash usage that we are now witnessing is going too fast for certain vulnerable groups who are unable to use digital technology or who do not even have access to it. The Riksbank therefore welcomes the proposals that the Riksbank Committee has submitted. The Riksbank has been requesting protection for cash usage since 2016, when the Payment Accounts Directive was introduced. I therefore consider it a welcome step that there is a broad political will to speak with a clear voice in this matter and that the legislator intends to increase its influence over this structural transformation so that it is not steered by the private sector alone. The Riksbank Inquiry’s proposal, supported by representatives of all parties in the Riksdag, would ensure access to cash.