samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Rising concerns regarding the debt sustainability of several Southern European countries have caused risk appetites to follow a volatile and downward trajectory, which in turn, have triggered capital outflows from emerging markets and increased risk premiums. While risk premium indicators particularly in some European countries have increased, during this period, increases in emerging market risk premiums – especially in Turkey – have been limited (Figure 3). BIS Review 133/2010  1  Sovereign debt-related problems in Europe have once again confirmed that downside risks regarding the global economy activity remain. This development led many central banks to adopt a monetary policy stance with an increased emphasis on downside risks, especially in advanced countries. Accordingly, central banks of advanced economies have underscored that the current monetary policy stance would be kept accommodative for a long period, while emerging economies have also adopted similar changes in their rhetoric through policy statements. These developments have postponed the expectations regarding the timing of policy normalization (Figure 4). 2  BIS Review 133/2010  According to this outlook, year-on-year inflation in consumer prices was flat in both advanced and emerging economies during the second quarter of 2010 (Figure 5). In the meantime, core inflation continued to diverge between both groups of economies (Figure 6). 1. Inflation developments  After summarizing current global conditions, I would now like to make an evaluation of the inflation developments in Turkey that took place in the last quarter.

6  BIS Review 133/2010  During the second quarter, the fall in inflation and increased downside risks regarding the global economy have vindicated the monetary policy stance of the Committee – that it may be necessary to maintain policy rates at current levels for some time, and to keep them at low levels for a long period. Accordingly, we see that market expectations regarding future policy rates were revised downwards (Figure18). Market rates also reflect growing expectations of delay and moderation in the rate-hike cycle. Accordingly, benchmark bond yields fell during the second quarter and continued to hover around historic lows despite the increased risk aversion (Figure 19). The downturn in market  BIS Review 133/2010  7  rates was also driven by the improved inflation outlook. The flattening of the yield curve in July compared to April indicates that policy rate-expectations of market players have been revised downwards (Figure 20). The downslide was more significant in market rates than in inflation expectations during the second quarter, pushing medium-term real rates down to historic lows (Figure 21). Yet I would like to underline that real market rates in Turkey did not decouple substantially from other emerging economies (Figure 21). 8  BIS Review 133/2010  The ongoing downward trend both in market rates and the tightness in credit conditions contributed to the maintenance of low levels in loan rates. No remarkable change is observed in loan rates in the second quarter despite the continuing improvement in credit markets (Figure 22). 3.
Chart 9: Profits in tradable sector boosted by depreciation in early 90s, hit by later appreciation  Chart 10: Unlike early 1990s, there is now limited spare capacity, including in tradable sector  Source: ONS and Bank of England calculations  Source: BCC and Bank of England calculations  10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  10  Chart 11: Investment in tradable sector also sensitive to exchange rate  Chart 12: Business investment growth weak in 2016  Source: ONS and Bank of England calculations  Source: ONS, CBI, BCC and CIPS  These trends then went into reverse after sterling’s re-appreciation later than decade. If subdued domestic consumption had allowed the economy to “rebalance” through the 1992-97 period, the opposite occurred over the following few years. Stronger domestic demand growth “crowded out” the tradable sector by helping to push up sterling’s exchange rate. This led to falls in prices, profits and investment in the tradable sector. What about today? Sadly we don’t have such detailed information on anything like a real-time basis. Indeed we have very little data of any kind, even at an aggregate level, to tell us how profits and investment have behaved since last summer. But here’s my take on what we do know:   First, it’s likely that profitability has improved significantly in the tradable sector of the economy. We know that non-financial corporate profits in aggregate rose 10% in the year to Q3.

Indeed, an important development emerging in the recent period has been the more explicit consideration of implications for recovery plans in key strategic decisions, such as decisions to hub operations at a particular location or service provider. As much as organisational resources are put into enhancements of business continuity management, it is important for businesses to always keep in mind the inherent limitations of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  business continuity plans and not be lulled into a false sense of confidence that these plans may provide. Scenarios featured in these plans are often based on assumptions, which are a simplification of reality at best. Such scenarios should always be rigorously challenged to account for changing conditions. Business recovery or resumption actions should also contemplate a range of conditions to build agility within the organisation to execute required, but potentially untested, responses. Firms should expect that they will rarely get to a point of precision in their scenario planning and BCM responses. This does not mean that BCM is necessarily reduced to an exercise in futility. A commitment to continuous improvements in BCM is almost certainly likely to prepare firms better for disasters and tail risk events even if those specific events were not exactly contemplated. This is because the organisation will be naturally better at coming together in a crisis, and would be able to leverage on some of the core elements of response plans that have already been developed and tested.
The impact is also more obvious on mortgage than on corporate lending. Three quarters of total lending is to households rather than to firms, and it is easier for banks to launch new offers in that sector. In the corporate sector, we have seen banks take different approaches to SME lending: one bank offers a cash back scheme; another has scrapped arrangement fees; a third is offering guaranteed discounted borrowing costs. The true impact for corporate customers is not easily measured in “standard” interest rate data, but the potential economic benefit is there. Overall, we think there is more action to come in lower lending rates. The final stage is the impact of lower lending rates on the quantity of credit. That will take some time to work through from applications to approvals to actual lending and is the most uncertain leg. The FLS has clearly shifted the supply of credit: loans are generally available at lower cost than previously. That in itself is a monetary boost as new borrowers will be better off than they were before because they are paying lower interest rates. But whether there is more borrowing in total will depend on the demand for credit and the creditworthiness of borrowers. If firms or households, for whatever reason, are reluctant to borrow, a change in the marginal interest rate may not make much difference.

When profit expectations ultimately fall back to more realistic levels, share prices drop. Corporate investment slackens as the economy’s aggregate capital stock is adjusted to match a more reasonable long-term return. This is accompanied by decreased household consumption, not least of capital goods, to match a more realistic assessment of the long-term development of income. The Austrian School also provides us with a fundamental insight into economic policy’s limitations. If a technological breakthrough leads to a period when the growth of investment and consumption exceeds what is sustainable in the longer run, there is bound to be a fall-off. After a supply shock of this type, measures of economic policy are simply not capable of preventing an adjustment to a more realistic appraisal of the future. The necessity of the adjustment means that the measures only postpone it and presumably tend to make it all the more painful when it does occur. History teaches us that after a period of what I would call “growing pains”, the optimism about what the new technology can achieve will be restored, albeit in a more orderly, realistic guise. In my opinion, neither the rapid fall-off in global activity nor the terrorist attacks on 11 September have upset the grounds for being optimistic about the new technology’s potential. Problems for many companies After the investment boom and the marked slowdown we are now experiencing, there is a risk of a good many companies having balance-sheet problems.
There are numerous security features but fortunately, we need to know only a few major ones to enable us to tell the difference between genuine and counterfeit notes. It would be in our interest to download and use this application so that we are able to differentiate a genuine and a counterfeit note. In the process, we will get to know and appreciate better our unique characteristics of the design and security features of our currencies. The My Ringgit application also contains useful information on the locations of the coin deposit machines of participating institutions throughout Malaysia. Users of this app will also receive a “Push Notification” message from time to time on news relevant to our currency like issuance of a new commemorative coin. Protecting our currency against being forged is critical but protecting it against being stolen is also as important. In the last few years, our ATMs have been the frequent target of criminals that has impacted the general public perception on the security of the banking industry’s ATMs. Many defective and preventive measures have been taken by financial institutions to protect the safety of ATMs such as relocating the ATMs to a safer location, strengthening the ATM security panel, installing bollards or even replacing obsolete ATMs. We are appreciative of the police who have played a significant role in improving the ATMs’ security. Bank Negara and financial institutions will always stand ready to assist the police in ensuring the security of our ATMs.

SPEECH DATE:  16 November 2016  SPEAKER:  Cecilia Skingsley  VENUE:  FinTech Stockholm 2016, Berns  SVERIGES RIKSBANK SE-103 37 Stockholm (Brunkebergst org 11) Tel. +46 8 787 00 00 Fax +46 8 21 05 31 registratorn @ riks ban k.se www.riksb ank.s e  Should the Riksbank issue e-krona?1 Should the Riksbank issue electronic means of payment in the same way as we now issue cash? This is a natural question for a central bank, as technological advances create new opportunities, as the printing press once upon a time made it possible to print banknotes. Banknotes were a complement to the minted coins, and are so today too. Similarly, an electronic means of payment, say an e-krona, could be a complement to physical cash. This is the question I intend to discuss today. The question is particularly relevant for us in Sweden, as cash is being used to a declining extent and is sometimes difficult to get hold of. The fact that cash is no longer as easily accessible as before means that the general public finds it more difficult to get hold of money issued by the Riksbank and instead often has to use money in bank accounts with the commercial banks. This is a development steered by market forces and not by the authorities. Market forces has worked well for a long time, but developments move fast for some consumers and companies.
Arnór Sighvatsson: Iceland’s future monetary and exchange rate regime Speech by Mr Arnór Sighvatsson, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Iceland, at a meeting of the Icelandic Federation of Labour, Reykjavík, 10 January 2012. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen: In the wake of severe financial and monetary instability, it is appropriate for the Icelandic authorities to conduct a comprehensive review of Iceland’s exchange rate and monetary policy regime. The re-assessment must be based on an accurate diagnosis. The authorities should not only review the experience of recent years, but also grapple with the fundamental questions of why Iceland’s monetary policy track record has been so dismal, over nearly a century, that the Icelandic króna has depreciated by 99.95% against the Danish krone since the two currencies were uncoupled in 1920. Monetary policy generally faces two conflicting roles of the currency exchange rate: to be an anchor of monetary policy, on the one hand, and a tool for adjustment, on the other. During the Icelandic króna’s lifetime as an independent currency, exchange rate policy has moved along the axis between fixing and floating, but without managing to stop the virtually uninterrupted erosion of the króna’s purchasing power except for short periods of time. There could be four potential types of explanations for Iceland’s poor performance in the field of monetary policy, and corresponding types of measures for improving the performance: 1. First of all, the source of the problem might be the implementation of monetary policy or its framework.

Such comforts were viewed by many as a shield against underlying risks, and in some cases they prompted banks to lower their guard against the problems that were gathering. Given the new playing field in place as from 2007, the responsibility of savings banks is clear: to act resolutely to change those structures that can be improved, in full awareness that other parts of the new situation are exogenous and therefore elude their management capabilities. Hence the importance of taking decisions aimed at improving efficiency, through merger – or concentration – processes that position savings banks at a new set of size and rationality-based coordinates. BIS Review 173/2010  1  Faced with this need, the structuring of the new IPS instrument (new, at least, in terms of its current contours) responds to the need to pave the way so that concentration agreements may be reached between a type of institution –savings banks – which, given its business form and complex governance arrangements, does not have the same flexibility as banks to conclude merger agreements. To smooth these concentration processes, the Fund for the Orderly Restructuring of the Banking Sector was also created, a Fund to which the initiators of the various projects can resort to strengthen their capital. This assistance adds further discipline in respect of compliance with the plans, since the condition imposed by the use of public funds is that the capacity of the banking system should be reduced and its efficiency increased.
If it is structured correctly, each form of intermediation will not be subject to the same risks. Diversity also allows risks to be more closely aligned with risk-bearing capacity in the system. With scope for creditor preferences to be more closely matched with those of borrowers, the full potential of finance to intermediate can be exploited and the cost of finance for the real economy minimised. If we can succeed in safely and sustainably combining bank and market-based finance, the effectiveness of the system can be dramatically increased. Households and businesses can benefit from access to markets while the advantage of banks in originating loans can continue to be exploited. A trusted financial system can be much more effective. Through cultural change, reforms to compensation and building markets that are transparently fair, finance can earn the legitimacy needed to operate and innovate to serve customers and clients in the real economy. The literature on the benefits of an open global financial system is admittedly mixed. The contradiction between this conclusion and the clear and overwhelming benefits of trade integration is reconciled by the previous unsafe and potentially unstable nature of the global  14  BIS central bankers’ speeches  system. As my colleague Andy Haldane observed recently, connectivity can serve as a shock-transmitter.30 A risky system cannot be an open system. The renewal of globalised finance must therefore go hand in hand with making the global system safer, including through mutual trust and cooperation between supervisors and regulators.

But what should not be in doubt is that the MPC will take whatever steps are necessary in order to keep inflation on track to meet the 2.5% target. The challenge for monetary and fiscal policy is to restore domestic demand growth to sustainable levels. This would permit the stabilisation and eventual reduction of the trade deficit, while maintaining  2  BIS Review 26/2002  low and stable inflation, and high and stable employment, at the same time as resources move from private consumption to the provision of better public services. It is possible, perhaps likely, that the transition to lower growth rates of consumption will occur smoothly. And lower inflation now than in the past may ease the adjustment - the future is not what it was. For the Monetary Policy Committee the challenge is to keep inflation close to the target during a period in which a significant re-balancing of the British economy will take place. That will be a challenge, not just for the MPC, but for all of us. BIS Review 26/2002  3
Considering from the viewpoint of fiscal policies, we should note that one of the factors ensuring the maintenance of the downward trend of inflation in the medium-term is the sustainability of fiscal discipline and the revenues policy consistent with the targets without hesitations. Within this context, we closely monitor the effects of the adjustments in the revenues policy and the primary public expenditures on inflation and inflation expectations. The achievements in structural reforms support the increase in efficiency via the improvements in competition and investment environments, contributing to the downward trend of inflation. The structural reform process has a determining effect also on the expectations. Unceasing maintenance of the steps in this area are important for the permanency of the downward trend in inflation. Even if a considerable improvement is observed today in comparison with the first half of the year, medium-term inflation expectations that are higher than targets are the other risk factors regarding the inflation outlook. This is due to the possibility of these expectations to bring about deteriorations in the pricing behaviors. Dear Guests, Although some political developments regarding the negotiations with the European Union may come to the forefront, and some interruptions and delays may occur, this process itself does mean  BIS Review 28/2007  3  convergence to the developed economies in economic terms. Together with the IMF, it also functions as an important anchor for the domestic and foreign economic units. This perspective, which is very influential on expectations, should be preserved.

Therefore, we have a small increase in bad loans, which reached about 12 percent. I think this process will slowly wind down. Then, together with the reduction of the risks that banks see in the real sector, and which will come to the surface now after the positive signals from the European economy, lending to companies will become a little more intensive. In one of its reports NBRM has pointed out that one of the limiting factors for higher credit growth are some conservative strategies in the local banking groups. What specifically did you mean? Yes, we pointed out the conservative strategies. And it is no secret that here we primarily think of the problems that some of the banks present in Macedonia have in their home countries. Banks in Slovenia and Greece are in serious problems, even though their banks in Macedonia are among the best, by both the quality of corporate governance and the credit risk management, and also the level of capital and liquidity they have is the highest in our  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  banking system. So, their banks in Macedonia have no impediment to normally work and grant loans. But don’t they grant loans normally? Well, some of them are quite restrained. We constantly talk to them and they promise to be more active in the market. Which of them are restrained? Stopanska Banka has been quite restrained in recent years, but it always had positive rates of credit growth. It has never cut lending.
4 Patrick Bolton, Morgan Despress, Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, Frederic Samama, and Romain Svartzman, “The  Green Swan – Central Banking and Financial Stability in the Age of Climate Change,” Bank for International Settlements, 2020. 5 TCFD site and review of annual reports, integrated reports, non-financial reports, sustainability reports and  standalone climate-related disclosure reports of individual GSIBs. 6 In the international context, see Enhancing Banks’ and Insurers’ Approaches to Managing the Financial Risks  from Climate Change, Bank of England Supervisory Statement 3/19, April 15, 2019; ECB Banking Supervision: Risk Assessment for 2020, European Central Bank; and Bolton et al. (2020). 7 Kevin J. Stiroh, New York Fed, Emerging Issues for Risk Managers, Nov, 2019. 8 Governor Lael Brainard, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Why Climate Change Matters for Monetary Policy  and Financial Stability, Nov. 2019. 9 “Demystifying Climate Scenario Analysis for Financial Stakeholders,” Four Twenty Seven, 2019. “Climate risk  and response,” McKinsey Global Institute, 2020. “Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Synthesis Report (SYR),” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2015). 10 Fink, Larry, A Fundamental Reshaping of Finance, Letter to CEOs, 2020. 11 See The 2021 Biennial Exploratory Scenario on the Financial Risks from Climate Change, Bank of England  Discussion Paper, December 2019 for a discussion of relevant issues. 12 Carney (2015). 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches

The markets made a highly positive assessment of this transparency exercise and the banks, which are responsible for providing information to investors, should be the parties most interested in persevering with these market communication efforts. From the approval of the measures to the current situation The functioning of financial markets in the first half of 2010 was complicated considerably by the lack of confidence in the sustainability of public finances. At the height of the tension, the funding markets shut down and, consequently, many European institutions, including Spanish ones, resorted increasingly to funding from the Eurosystem since borrowers and lenders were no longer directly in contact. As a result of the economic measures approved by the Government, the reforms of the banking sector and the publication of the stress tests, this tension eased from July. Not only did the interbank market begin to function again, but many institutions were able to place € billion of bonds and notes on primary markets. This was reflected in the sharp reduction in funds requested by Spanish banks from the Eurosystem. At end-November 2010, funding from the ECB, which in July 2010 stood at € billion, fell back to € billion. This means that the Spanish banking system absorbs 12% of the loan from the European Central Bank, a proportion fully commensurate with its size and importance in the euro area and which represents 2.5% of its balance sheet.