samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In fact the issue of central bank independence, Ladies and Gentlemen, is as old as central banking itself, having been debated on and off over the past couple of hundred years. Many of the “transitional economies” of Eastern Europe also have adopted reforms aimed at  BIS Review 136/2007  1  making their central banks more independent. 19th and 20th century economists such as, David Ricardo and John Maynard Keynes have all added their views to the subject. There seem to be consensus that central banks must be given a charter which includes a strong commitment to price stability, and the freedom and sufficient scope to pursue it. This means that while central banks may not have goal independence, they should have instrument independence. One need not dwell on the desirability of price stability. Economies work better if investment and wage decisions are not thwarted and confused by high inflation. However, the fears in some respects are associated with the financing of fiscal deficits that governments in the developing world from time to time have to run to meet, for instance, social obligations or indeed provide public goods. This indeed is a genuine fear (including others that may be identified) that this symposium must address. There are arguments that there is a fundamental conflict between independence and an obligation to finance the budget deficit – a conflict which often is resolved at the expense of price stability.

In this context, global growth lost momentum somewhat in the third quarter. This was largely attributable to special factors, such as production losses in the German automotive industry and extreme weather events in Japan. Economic expansion in the US and China remained robust. Employment figures in the advanced economies rose again and unemployment continued to decline. The growth in international trade in goods also continued. In our baseline scenario for global economic developments, we anticipate solid growth in the coming quarters. In the short term, the world economy is set to continue to expand somewhat above potential, benefiting from the clear improvement in the labour market situation and the ongoing expansionary monetary policy in the advanced economies. However, a gradual slowdown is likely in the medium term. Nevertheless, we also see significant risks to this baseline scenario, primarily in connection with political uncertainties and protectionist tendencies. These risks have considerable potential for damage. The resulting uncertainty alone can curb growth and weaken the resilience of the global economy. For instance, surveys indicate that trade tensions have prompted companies to reassess their investment plans and value chains. As far as Brexit is concerned, uncertainty remains high following the postponement of the vote in the UK parliament. The tension surrounding Italy’s fiscal policy also persists. All these risks could lead to turbulence in the financial markets, jeopardise global economic growth, and also influence monetary policy.
This is expected to be a catalyst in the provision of end-to-end financial services, particularly in a ‘low touch’ environment. The financial industry is taking steps to ensure safe and secure introduction of e-KYC, with several banks planning to launch e-KYC solutions in the coming months with more to follow in 2021. We are also currently in the final stages of developing the licensing framework for digital banking, which we envision can enhance access to affordable and quality financial solutions, particularly for the underserved and hard-to-reach market segments. From our sandbox experience, we also observe similar digital alternatives and solutions being developed in the insurance and takaful sector. Our shift towards e-payments has also been sustained, with a 47% increase in the volume of transactions made through internet and mobile banking, and a 260% increase in active e-wallet users between August 2019 and 2020. Furthermore, good progress has been made in enabling the interoperability of e-wallet services offered by banks and non-bank e-money issuers. Looking ahead, Bank Negara Malaysia 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  will continue to focus on fostering well-designed regulations to facilitate digitalisation and innovation in financial services. All these efforts are intended to support the financial services industry accelerate its transition to an age of digitalisation and innovation. We have high hopes for Islamic Finance to capitalise on this. In 2017, we launched the Value-Based Intermediation (VBI) initiative.

Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid: Islamic finance, e-payments and fintech Opening speech by Mr Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 3rd Islamic Fintech Dialogue (IFD2020), 1 December 2020. * * * It really is a pleasure for me to join you this afternoon to be part of what I am sure will be an illuminating and stimulating dialogue over the next two days. I would like to record Bank Negara Malaysia’s appreciation to ISRA for organising this, but also more broadly, its continued contribution to the development of Islamic finance not just in Malaysia but internationally. As a prestigious research academy, it needs to produce prestigious and breakthrough research, and it needs to have events like this dialogue to further advance the knowledge and exchange of ideas and the cause of Islamic Finance. In 2011, Bank Negara Malaysia issued a 10-year Financial Sector Blueprint. One of the key agendas we wanted to drive was to promote e-payments; at the time, greater use of payment cards, internet banking and online fund transfers. Little did we expect that ‘fintech’, which according to Google Trends was still a nascent term at the time, would grow at the pace and scale we are seeing today. It appears that interest in fintech only picked up rapidly from 2015. Today, many countries, including Malaysia, have adopted it as a key development theme for their financial sector.
This work spans (i) purely econometric studies trying to capture salient time series features of term structure dynamics; (ii) a rich finance literature studying the pricing of bonds and interest rate derivatives in a no-arbitrage framework; and (iii) a host of reducedform or structural models trying to link the yield curve to macroeconomic variables. Traditionally, and especially recently, central bank economists have been quite active in that type of research. [6] See Darracq Pariès, M., Moccero, D., Krylova, E. and Marchini, C. (2014), “The retail bank interest rate pass-through: the case of the euro area during the financial and sovereign debt crisis”, Occasional Paper, No 155, ECB; and European Central Bank (2017), “MFI lending rates: pass-through in the time of non-standard monetary policy”, Economic Bulletin, Issue 1. [7] See Gürkaynak, R., Sack, B. and Swanson, E. (2005), “Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements”, International Journal of Central Banking, 1(1), pp. 55-93. [8] See, e.g., Altavilla, C., Brugnolini, L., Gürkaynak, R. S., Motto, R. and Ragusa, G. (forthcoming), “Measuring euro area monetary policy”, Journal of Monetary Economics. For similar approaches, see also Cieslak, A. and Schrimpf, A. (forthcoming), “Non-Monetary News in Central Bank Communication”, Journal of International Economics; and Leombroni, M., Vedolin, A., Venter, G. and Whelan, P. (2018), “Central Bank Communication and the Yield Curve”, CEPR Discussion Papier 12970. [9] As a general pattern stipulated in most models, the short-term rate is typically expected to revert back to some long-term mean.

[20] Cumulating across these events, the long-term Bund rate declined by 30 basis points. This is the bar that you see on the left in Chart 7. With the help of an econometric term structure model, ECB staff have decomposed that change into the contribution of changes in average short rate expectations and the term premium. [21] Chart 7 shows that it is the term premium that accounts for essentially the entire decline in yields. On the day of the APP announcement itself (22 January 2015), the ten-year Bund rate decreased by 15 basis points, which is one of the largest daily declines in Bund yields since the inception of the euro. The second bar in Chart 7 also shows that the observed yield compression can be explained exclusively by the term premium. [22]  Chart 7 Decomposed changes in ten-year Bund yields (percentage points)  Sources: Based on Lemke and Werner (forthcoming). Notes: Based on an affine term structure model, the bars shows the decomposed change of the ten-year Bund yield over the indicated horizons: left bar corresponds to cumulated one-day changes associated with APP-related ECB communication between summer 2014 and 22 January 2015. The other two bars correspond to a one-day change for the indicated date. So staff analysis suggests that, at least initially, growing expectations of the imminent start of the APP were primarily reflected in a compression of the term premium.
Our remit from the Chancellor of the Exchequer tells us that our target is 2% inflation “at all times”, but also recognises “that the actual inflation rate will on occasions depart from its target as a result of shocks and disturbances. Attempts to keep inflation at the inflation target in these circumstances may cause undesirable volatility in output.” Economists and monetary policy makers have long understood that there is generally no conflict between stabilising inflation and stabilising output when the economy is subject to adverse demand shocks. But that there is a real choice to be made when there are adverse cost shocks: inflation can be stabilised, but only at the cost of volatility in output. From a monetary policy perspective, the rise in commodity prices and VAT are both essentially adverse cost shocks. And so, in my view, is the rise in import prices associated with the depreciation in sterling, given that it was not primarily a consequence of monetary policy actions (though the subsequent stance of monetary policy will surely have affected the extent to which that rise in import prices has passed through into consumer prices). The exercise above suggests that together they account for a rise in the level of consumer prices of 9 to 13 percentage points. Since the “excess” inflation relative to the 2% target is a little over 5 percentage points, that suggests that, in practice, we have ended up accommodating around half the impact of the shocks on inflation.

Ardian Fullani: Key policy issues for remittances in transition economies - a view point from a recipient country Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the high level conference organised by the EBRD and sponsored by Switzerland, London, 28 September 2005. *  *  *  Remittances these days can easily classify as one of the most important sources of finance assisting the convergence of developing nations, to the point of overshadowing conventional funding like bank credit. The flow of remittances worldwide goes beyond 100 billion USD per year, with developing countries being recipients of more than 60 percent of this considerable amount. Remittances’ estimations in these countries often exceed trade inflows, or foreign financing and investment. Therefore, they have become an important device for channelling funds and resources from developed countries toward countries in need. Moreover, remittances, like foreign direct investments (FDI), are regarded as very stable and safe capital flow, helping developing countries to achieve sustainable high growth rates. In recent years, we have seen a growing awareness about emigrants’ remittances as an important financial source for development. This issue was included in the G8 meeting agenda of 2004 and in the spring meeting of IMF and World Bank earlier this year, emphasizing the growing significance of migration, and with it, of migrants’ remittances, calling for intensification of efforts to improve and identify their causes, as well as to establish an environment that could enhance the impact of remittances on development process.
These patterns suggest that households in the area are making progress on restoring their balance sheets, but they may not have completed the process. With regard to jobs, employment losses in the area during the 2008–09 downturn were steeper than in most of New York State, although less severe than for the Unites States as a whole. As of the first quarter of 2011, the Hudson Valley had yet to see a clear upturn in  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  employment. The private sector has actually seen brisk job gains in the leisure and hospitality sector, and the professional and business service sector added jobs in the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown metro area. And private-sector employment has held steady in the Kingston area over the past year. Both areas, however, have seen continuing job losses in retail trade and, especially, government employment. State and local government employment has declined by about 3.5 percent in the past year and has weighed down overall job growth in both areas. Unemployment rates in the mid-Hudson valley peaked at 8.4 percent in late 2009 – well below the national peak of 10 percent and moderately below the state-wide peak of 8.9 percent. Nevertheless, as in much of the region and the nation, jobless rates have not retreated much thus far and remain stubbornly high. Thus, the area was severely affected by the recession, but somewhat less so than the rest of the country. The recovery has begun, but some signs of distress remain in housing, credit and labor markets.

How quickly to remove monetary policy accommodation—is a gradual path of removal still appropriate now that the unemployment rate is 4.1 percent? 2. How far to go in removing monetary policy accommodation—will monetary policy have to move to a somewhat restrictive setting in the years ahead? 1/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  3. How should the FOMC factor fiscal policy and trade policy developments into its monetary policy decisions? I will take each of these in turn. As I see it, a gradual path of interest rate increases remains appropriate. Even though the unemployment rate is low, inflation remains below our 2 percent objective. As long as that is true, the case for tightening policy more aggressively does not seem compelling. My conclusion is reinforced by the fact that we do not know with much precision how low the unemployment rate can go without prompting a significant rise in inflation. We do not directly observe the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU. Rather, we only infer it from the response of wage compensation and price inflation as the labor market tightens. Also, the U.S. labor market may have more slack than the 4.1 percent unemployment rate suggests. Over the past six months, the unemployment rate has remained steady despite robust payroll gains. As the labor market has improved, more people have been actively seeking employment. As a result, the labor force participation rate has flattened out despite the ongoing aging of the workforce population.
The telehealth market in Asia Pacific is expected to grow by 12 per cent annually to reach $ billion in 2020. In Singapore, we have been rolling out TeleRehab services for stroke patients. It delivers better health outcomes because doctors can monitor patients and make sure they follow-through on rehabilitation without the inconvenience of regular physical travel to the clinic. In the US, Kaiser – a major healthcare provider in California – already has more than half of its consultations through tele-health, and insurers have begun to accept telehealth claims. iv. In Singapore, the first tele-health trial by an insurer was launched last year, enabling policy-holders at risk of heart problems to be monitored remotely so that abnormalities can be picked up in time, and issues detected before they become critical. I encourage insurers to partner with healthcare providers and research centres to test such applications and support the implementation of Smart Health platforms. It supports an important paradigm shift towards preventive and sustainable healthcare management for policy-holders. 9. There is opportunity for insurers to go digital in other ways too. At the front end: It is frequently remarked within the insurance industry that an insurer interacts with its clients just once or twice a year- for signing, renewals and claims. Apps and social media present insurers with more touchpoints to understand and engage their clients. Telematics and IOT (internet of things) devices enable data analytics, allowing the insurer to deliver more customised and innovative products and services.

askPRU is also expected to reduce 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  call volumes at its contact centre by 30 per cent, freeing up call centre staff to assist customers and consultants with more complex queries. Financial consultants are also equipped with PRUONE Express, a digital point-of-sale portal which uses fingerprint authentication by agents, and SmartData Capture and is able to generate a detailed quotation within three seconds, enabling agents to discuss and assess possible protection plans with their clients on the spot. Ultimately, the role of the insurance agent will continue to evolve: from selling standalone life or health insurance products, to more holistic wealth and risk management advice, and in essence to being a truly trusted advisor. Given the growing 13.  demand for risk management and compliance related roles in the industry, I also encourage insurers to consider reskilling some of their agents to take on such roles. 14. Prudential‘s new office, which is designed to promote maximum mobility, productivity, innovation and healthy living amongst its employees, echoes the aspirations of Asia’s insurance consumers. It will continue to play an important role in meeting the protection needs of the next generation of Asia’s consumers. Once again, my warmest congratulations to Prudential on the opening of its new office. 1 The global record for a fastest insurance claim was set in December last year by renter’s insurance start-up  Lemonade’s artificial intelligence Jim in the US, which settled a claim for the theft of a $ parka within 3 seconds.
Firstly, our Report indicates that the Banco de España did not adopt measures that could, perhaps, have checked the sizeable increase in credit to the private sector recorded between 2001 and 2007, in particular in the construction and real estate development 12/14  sectors, and in mortgage lending for house purchases. But it should be pointed out that there were then no legal regulations that could have provided for such action and that other measures adopted in those years – the countercyclical provisions and the more severe treatment of the so-called “special-purpose vehicles” – were effective in helping withstand the first crisis, although they did not suffice to protect our banks from the double-dip recession that began in 2011. Secondly, the treatment of the most characteristic problems of the savings banks through the risk-pooling schemes contained in the institutional protection systems (IPSs) did not suffice to resolve the solvency and governance problems of most savings banks; nor was there much success with certain innovations such as equity units with voting rights, with which it was sought to resolve, or at least alleviate, savings banks’ difficulties in raising resources equivalent to capital. Thirdly, it seems clear that the Banco de España estimated that the 2009 recession would have what the economists call a “V” shape, and not a “W” shape, without anticipating the strong impact of the second recession on many credit institutions’ solvency.

Under Bond Connect, eligible overseas investors can settle and hold their Mainland bonds through CMU using nominee holding arrangement. Nominee holding arrangement is widely used by investors in international capital markets as it provides greater convenience and flexibility to investors and market participants. CMU also adopts nominee holding arrangement and provides nominee holding services for more than 200 local and international banks, trust companies and custodians through its linkages with Euroclear, Clearstream and other regional CSDs. The continued liberalisation of the Mainland’s capital account and RMB internationalisation will progressively raise demand from overseas investors for RMB asset allocation, while the Mainland has been proactively rolling out measures to facilitate overseas investors’ access to its bond market. We believe that Bond Connect would enhance overseas investors’ participation in the Mainland bond market. 5. I wish Bond Connect a great success. Thank you. 1/1  BIS central bankers' speeches
Ex ante assessments, based on the introduction of compulsory impact studies in 2009, have remained under used as a management tool, "too often appearing as a self-serving justification for the laws they accompany". iii Ex-post assessments have also been developed in France either by public bodies or academic research, but contribute more to methodological debates than to any real objectification conducive to action. Dwindling academic research Meanwhile, what can we say about academic and economic research in this area? In the 1980s and 1990s, this was mainly influenced by the New Public Management (NPM) school of thought, which adopted management methods from the private sector, with a focus on incentives for public servants and more variable pay. The Virginia School’s Public Choice theory (Downs, Buchanan, Tullock) even proposed to turn the concept of public action on its head: individualistic officials and policies could pursue private interests rather than spontaneously acting in the general interest. I personally remember the shock that I and the whole generation of civil servants around me experienced when Jean-Jacques Laffont questioned the principle of the "benevolent state" in a presentation he made to the Economic Advisory Council (CAE) in 1999. Fortunately, Jean Tirole has since clarified and qualified the analysis in "Économie du bien commun, iv where he called for the creation of "real public service bosses", and for them to be afforded "considerable managerial freedom accompanied by strict ex-post evaluation". NPM gave rise to performance incentives based on indicators and assessments.

Nonetheless, it is too early to sound the all-clear. The ongoing price corrections on the US real estate market will probably continue to put a strain on the US economy. Ultimately, this will spill over to countries outside the US, although according to our assessment the affects will be limited. Consequently, although the SNB expects a slowing in momentum in the coming quarters, it expects the decline in economic growth to be less pronounced than in the US. However, there is considerable uncertainty attached to the current forecast. This means that market participants, and in particular the banks, also need to take less favourable scenarios into account. A clear escalation of the crisis in the US real estate market would heavily depress economic growth in the US and this, in turn, would leave a more pronounced mark on Switzerland. Moreover, real estate prices have risen appreciably in recent years in the US, as in other countries. Price corrections can already be observed here and there in the real estate markets of other countries. Further developments of this kind cannot be ruled out. We do not see any greater risks for the Swiss real estate market at the present time. As already mentioned, the Swiss big banks have reduced some of their risk positions in recent months. However, they remain exposed with regard to international developments. So far, the financial market turmoil has mainly affected the trading portfolios of the big banks, and hardly any losses have been recorded in traditional lending business. This could change.