It should be noted, that under existing circumstances, this effect will be reinforced by accumulated high consumer debt level of certain households. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Decline in investment activities is driven not only by reduced profits and lower accessibility of other financial resources, but primarily by high uncertainty with regard to future economic development. It is expected to be the highest in industries which have not benefited from the ruble depreciation and which suffer from increased debt burden. For reference: According to forecasts, household final consumption expenditure will fall by 5.5–5,7% and 1,5-2% in 2015 and 2016. Fixed capital investment will decrease by an estimated 10–12% and 0,5-1,5% respectively. As for the labour market situation, we do not expect any considerable increase in the unemployment numbers in comparison with the existing level. This is due to both the demographic factors and the specifics of the Russian labour market which normally adjusts through changes in wages and partial employment, rather than by changes in the number of those employed. For reference: According to our estimates, the unemployment will not exceed 6.0%-6.2% in two coming years. In comparison with December, we revised the balance of payment forecast. The expected fall in imports saw the most considerable change (almost by 30% in 2015 compared with 2014 instead of previous estimate of 10%). Therefore, the current account surplus estimate has been revised upward to 64 billion US dollars in 2015 and to 90 billion US dollars in 2016.

In December-January, we reduced rates on these instruments, introduced new types of operations, and increased the frequency and allotment amount of foreign currency provision. In late 2014, the allotment amount of foreign exchange liquidity provision was about 20 billion US dollars and currently exceeds 30 billion US dollars. In January 2015, despite persistently low oil prices, complicated geopolitical situation, and Russia’s downgraded sovereign rating, the exchange rate volatility decreased and inflation expectations showed the first signs of stabilisation. This means that the result we expected when raising the key rate has been largely achieved. At the same time, the leading indicators started to show the beginning of considerable fall in aggregated demand and cyclical economic slowdown. Therefore, as opposed to 2014, the economic situation in 2015 started to exercise additional anti-inflationary pressure. This enabled the Bank of Russia to reduce the interest rates from 17% to 15 %. The consequently published data for January 2015 confirmed out estimates. In January 2015, the economic activity started to slow down. Temporary surge in consumer demand in December 2014 changed into a drop. Decline in investments intensified. Both consumer and producer sentiments deteriorated. Inflation accelerated sharply, but this dynamics is largely explained by the accelerated pass-through effect of the exchange rate on prices. Therefore, monthly inflation started to decline in February. We base our monetary policy decisions not only on the information about existing economic trends, but primarily on the forecasts of economic situation. Detailed and revised forecast will be published tonight as part of the Monetary Policy Report.