samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Not unexpectedly, the findings vary somewhat, but a fairly common finding seems to be that wage increases are not particularly informative when it comes to forecasting inflation. 7 The fact that wage increases have been modest for a while need not therefore signify that inflation will fall in the period ahead. Personally, I believe that both inflation and long-term inflation expectations will remain close to 2 per cent going forward, even if monetary policy is made slightly less expansionary. 7 See for instance Peneva and Rudd (2017). 14 [16]  With inflation on target – new challenges So allow me to summarise. I think this survey presents three important economic policy challenges. An important starting-point is that inflation is on target. It has now been around the target of 2 per cent in outcomes and expectations for some time. Target attainment is good. Occasional monthly variations by the odd tenth of a percentage point around the 2 per cent mark must not determine monetary policy, as I see it. And given that inflation is on target, there is scope for considering other important macroeconomic variables. The first challenge is that for several years there has been no correlation between unemployment and vacancies on the one hand and wage increases on the other. Unemployment has fallen but wage increases have remained steady at around 2 per cent as an annual rate. Inflation has indeed climbed back to target without any help from wage increases, which shows that inflation does not necessarily have to be wage-driven.

4 This is what I mean when I say that we need more advanced methods than studying pairwise plots, in order to try to come to grips with what the correlation actual looks like. In this context, it can be interesting to mention that a few fresh contributions to the debate originate from the School of Business here at Örebro University, where Sune Karlsson and Pär Österholm have estimated Phillips curves for the US and Sweden respectively in terms of inflation and unemployment. For Sweden during the period 1995–2017, the Phillips curve has, perhaps not so surprisingly, been found not to have been stable over time. It is also found that the Phillips curve,  3  See, for example, Kinnwall and Rune (2018). 4 See for example Blanchard (2016), Cunliffe (2017) and Murphy (2018). 8 [16]  specified in this way, has not become flatter in recent years. The Phillips curve has also been found to have been unstable for the US. It appears to have been flatter in 2005–2013 but thereafter to have had a clearer negative slope. It should be understood that economic research helps to improve our knowledge in that findings from many different quarters are thrashed out and hopefully eventually all point in a particular direction. Findings have so far varied a great deal. Off and on, the Phillips curve has been said to be dead, still alive but flatter than before or about the same as usual.
I began by saying that the State Bank of Vietnam is currently in a situation similar to that of the Swedish Riksbank just over a decade ago. However, it is also the case that the conditions are different in certain respects. One difference is that the Swedish credit and money markets had been deregulated completely during the 1980s and early 1990s. This meant, for instance, that the central government issued bonds, through public auctions and at predetermined times, and actively attempted to promote the development of a secondary market. Thus, there was already a clear channel through which monetary policy could have an effect. Another difference was that we in Sweden had the support of a long tradition of comprehensive production of public statistics that made our work easier. These are factors that, as I understand it, do not apply to the same extent here in Vietnam, at least not yet. Vietnam has thus – like all countries – its own special conditions that may need to be taken into account and may make it difficult to formulate monetary policy as an exact blueprint of the system in  7  For a detailed discussion of “central bank transparency”, see, for instance, Chapter 1 of Blinder, A.S., (2004), The Quiet Revolution – Central Banking Goes Modern, Yale University Press. 6  BIS Review 21/2006  another country 8 .

If, as expected, second round effects remain contained, the rate of inflation should drop back below 2% during the course of 2009, and long-term inflation expectations should remain low. Based on these assumptions, current monetary policy is appropriate. However, if inflation does not fall back due to second round effects as expected, the SNB would need to counter this development in order to anchor price stability. BIS Review 103/2008  1
Undoubtedly, liquidity expansion was a necessary condition for accelerated credit growth, as it usually happens during expansionary periods. Current account surpluses of emerging countries and of commodities exporters came on top of this increase in liquidity. Besides, this process took place within a context of an aggressive search for yields and financial innovation. One could even argue that the mortgage boom in the United States was partly caused by the monetary easing (Taylor, 2008). Moreover, there is evidence that, in developed countries, the larger the monetary policy excesses, the larger the mortgage booms (Ahrend et al., 2008). Notwithstanding the above, although liquidity is needed to generate credit expansion and bubbles in asset prices, by no means can it all by itself generate a crisis such as this one. In developing countries, we know very well that when a cyclical downturn is combined with a financial crisis, its effects are much deeper and longer. Actually, during this same period, economies with the same degree of expansiveness in their monetary policy and credit accelerations, but with sound financial systems, have not increased their vulnerabilities. We ourselves are an example of this (Figure 1). Between 2001 and 2004, a strong reduction of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) took place in Chile, and it did not cause a bubble in housing prices nor did it weaken the financial system.2 The reason why there was no housing price bubble in Chile needs further analysis.

In this way, although we will not be spared the effects of the global crisis, we can indeed mitigate their impact. Now, I will start out by presenting a short discussion on the relationship between monetary easing and the origin of the current global crisis. Then, I will discuss the evolution of inflation and output. Next, I will address monetary policy decisions and I will close this presentation with some final remarks. On the origins of the crisis: monetary policy or financial regulation? A lot has been written on the causes of the crisis and, certainly, this is not the time to analyze the myriad of factors which led to it.1 But I certainly do want to talk about the interrelationship  1  Interesting analyses on the origins of the crisis may be found in the articles compiled in section I of Felton and Reinhart (2008). For more recent discussions see Brunnermeier (2009), and Diamond and Rajan (2009). BIS Review 41/2009  1  between the performance of the financial system and the abundant liquidity after the interest rate cut in the United States following the plunge of the high-tech bubble in 2000. Many blame the US expansionary monetary policy as the main cause of the crisis. Such policy would have caused the housing bubble. However, monetary policy easing does not necessarily bring about bubbles in asset prices or even adjustments that may cause such striking effects as the ones we have witnessed in the United States.
The big trends in technology affecting finance What are the big trends in technology affecting the financial industry? Let me cite six technologies that appear potentially transformative: •  digital and mobile payments  •  authentication and biometrics  •  block chains and distributed ledgers  •  cloud computing  •  big data  •  learning machines  First, mobile and digital payments. Payment services are increasingly being enabled by mobile applications and near-field communications (NFC). •  Gone are the days of the clunky cash register. •  Today, accepting payments can be as simple as attaching a small dongle, no bigger than a matchbox, to a tablet or smartphone. This is only the beginning. •  Payments at stores and restaurants may increasingly not even require physical touch points, and could take place entirely over the Internet, using the customer’s smart device to effect payments. •  Further out, we can look to a future of seamless payments, where technology automatically recognises the customer, checks out the goods, and charges to the customer’s account as he walks out of the store. Second, authentication and biometrics. Authenticating one’s identity is critical to gaining access to a variety of financial services and performing many financial transactions. As authentication technology progresses, we can look forward to more secure and efficient solutions to authenticate identity. Biometric authentication is making good advances.

Some examples of FSTI-supported institution-level projects that are ongoing include: •  a decentralised record-keeping system based on block chain technology to prevent duplicate invoicing in trade finance;  •  a shared infrastructure for a know-your-client utility;  •  a cyber risk test-bed; and  •  a natural catastrophe data analytics exchange. We look forward to see more such innovation projects coming on-board. Second, digital payments. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  Changes in the payments scene in Singapore have picked up pace in recent years: •  Our retail banks have released their own flavours of mobile wallets or mobile payment applications: –  •  DBS PayLah!, UOB Mobile Cash, OCBC Pay Anyone, StanChart Dash, Maybank Mobile Money  With the launch of Fast And Secure Transfers or “FAST” in March 2014, we now have a ready infrastructure that allows customers of the participating banks to make domestic fund transfers to one another almost instantaneously from their computers or mobile devices. But there is a lot more we need to do on the digital payments front. First, payments at stores and restaurants. •  •  This is almost a Uniquely Singapore phenomenon –  Many of our stores and restaurants have multiple Points-of-Sale (“POS”) at their payment counters. –  This not only clutters valuable real estate but also makes life difficult for customers and merchants.
Ladies and Gentlemen, you will also note that this investment is being made at a time when the Zambian economy is facing some major challenges arising from the spill-over effects of the ongoing global economic crisis. It is therefore our expectations that it will have a positive impact on the economy due to the evident backward and forward linkages that infrastructure development of this nature have on various sectors of the economy. This investment has also come at a time when new banks are entering the Zambian market. It is our expectation that the repositioning by the bank is one way of ensuring that there is healthy competition in the banking industry. It has always been the view of the Bank of  BIS Review 88/2009  1  Zambia that competition is the major way by which the quality of products and customer services for the banking public as well as competitive pricing of banking products can be achieved. Chairperson, let me also take this opportunity to reiterate my concern regarding the general cost of banking services in Zambia. It is my hope that as your bank continues with these well meaning initiatives, it will also be looking into ways and means of making the cost of banking services to the general public more affordable. I wish to therefore reiterate our appeal to banking service providers that include Stanbic Bank Zambia Limited, to make some meaningful efforts in addressing the high cost of banking services.

Caleb M Fundanga: Increasing access to financial services in Zambia Remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the foundation stone laying ceremony of the new Stanbic Bank Premises, Lusaka, 10 July 2009. *  *  *  Mr. Ben Kruger, Deputy Group Chief Executive of the Standard Bank Group; Mr. Clive Tasker, Chief Executive Officer of Standard Bank Africa; Ms Pindie Nyando ro, Regional Managing Director; Mrs. Nikki Twomey, Director Brand Marketing at Standard Bank; Chairman of the Stanbic Bank Board, Mr. Larry Kalala; Directors of the Stanbic Bank Board; Managing Director, Stanbic Bank Mr. Joseph Chikolwa; Management and staff of Stanbic Bank; Representative from the Construction Company, Barnett’s and Farmers House Plc; Mr. Roger Miller Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen. I am honoured and thankful for the invitation to officiate at this important Foundation Stone Laying Ceremony of the new Stanbic Head Office premises. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen; allow me to begin by commending Stanbic Bank Zambia Limited for the important role it continues to play in the financial sector in Zambia. Since, 1992 when Stanbic Bank was established in Zambia, the bank has grown to be one of the biggest players in the market. As at 31 May 2009, the bank accounted for about 14% of the banking sector’s total assets, while its deposit base accounted for 15% of total sector deposits. More importantly, the bank’s loan portfolio accounted for 15% of the total loans in the sector.
Caleb M Fundanga: Corporate social responsibility - challenges that the private sector in Zambia should overcome Key note address by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the Mufulira District Advisory Committee’s 2006 Business Forum, Mufulira, 18 March 2006. *  *  *  CHAIRPERSON, YOUR HONOUR THE MAYOR OF MUFULIRA MUNICIPAL COUNCIL, THE DISTRICT COMMISSIONER, THE TOWN CLERK, DISTINGUISHED INVITED PARTICIPANTS, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN On behalf of the Bank of Zambia and indeed on my own behalf, allow me to thank you for this invitation to Mufulira. It is an honour to be invited to this important Forum to share a few words with the business community on the issue of Good Corporate Citizenship. In view of the growing role of the private sector as a partner in economic development in Zambia, this topic could not have come at a better time than now. In fact, when I was invited to come here by the Municipal Council, I took a bit of time to reflect on the challenges good corporate citizens face. On the outset, it is imperative to realise that despite the moral ethics that come with being a responsible and good corporate citizen, advantages can also be exploited by strengthening the synergies between private sector growth on the one hand and social, economic and environmental development on the other. In view of this, I prepared my address within the context of the underlying theme “Corporate Social Responsibility: Challenges that the Private Sector in Zambia Should Overcome”.

Ladies and Gentlemen, in view of the potential benefits that can accrue to a society, the business community in Zambia, and Mufulira in particular, are hereby challenged to make Corporate Social Responsibility an integral part of every business decision and action.. Companies should demonstrate corporate citizenship in what they are as a company, how they conduct business, how they take care of their employees, as well as in how they interact with the public at large. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, without being exhaustive, allow me to suggest some avenues through which good corporate citizenship can be encouraged among the Zambian business community. •  As a first step for pursuing Corporate Social Responsibility, companies can focus on defining the normative directions that would be appropriate and acceptable to them. These directions can be converted into a formal statement of business values and practices. Such statements can be presented in the form of principles, guidelines, or codes of conduct. For instance, a code of conduct can aim at regulating activities of an industry within the principles of responsible business by requiring the signatories to uphold fundamental human rights, to respect the culture and customs of their employees and local communities affected by their actions. In effect, these become a commitment vehicle for the business to declare its perspective and way of doing business with respect to the challenges relating to Corporate Social Responsibility.
The expanded scope has led to a rapid growth in the transaction volume of RMB trade settlement in Hong Kong, which was increased from a monthly average of 4.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2010, to more than 87 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, representing an almost twenty-fold increase during the period. To date, Hong Kong accounts for about 75% of Mainland’s RMB trade settlement. This clearly demonstrates the strong preference of market players for making use of Hong Kong’s platform for RMB trade settlement. The highly efficient and reliable RMB Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system in Hong Kong has played a significant role here. We are the first and so far the only place outside Mainland China that has developed a full-fledged RMB RTGS system, enabling us to handle the settlement of cross-border trade between the Mainland and other economies in a safe and efficient manner. China is one of the biggest trading nations in the world. The potential for further increases in RMB trade settlement is considerable given that the current volume only accounts for a small fraction of total trade between China and the rest of the world. RMB trade settlement proceeds will represent an important and sustainable source of growth in offshore RMB funds in Hong Kong. The third dimension is RMB wealth management business. The RMB wealth management business in Hong Kong took off last year after the RMB Clearing Agreement was revised in July 2010.

Adding in the related work of the international standard setters – the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the International Organization of Securities Commissions, the International Association of Insurance Supervisors, we are talking about literally hundreds of meetings over the past five years, attended by hundreds of experts across a wide range of fields. But only bureaucrats – and possibly international airlines and hotels – are interested in inputs like the number of international meetings… What about the outputs? The outputs have been impressive. Most so, is the international agreement on a new capital and liquidity framework for banks. The so called Basel III capital standard for banks was finalised in 2011. Banks have already begun the transition to the higher standards that will be fully in force by 2019. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  And the FSB has begun to take steps towards establishing a global capital standard for systemically important insurers. Alongside capital, the first ever international liquidity standard for banks was agreed at the beginning of this year. It is part of a new liquidity framework that will be finalised by the end of the year. We now also have an agreed definition for an international standard covering bank leverage – the so-called “leverage ratio” – the final standard is due to be set in 2017 after trial running. To critics, the speed of progress on liquidity and capital – key areas of weakness in the crisis – may seem painstakingly slow.
Such a tool would reduce the pressure on monetary policy as an instrument for managing risks on the Swedish housing market, something that I personally would very much welcome. This would allow influence to be exerted on the expansion of credit in the household sector and on housing prices, without simultaneously impeding credit granting in other sectors and possibly influencing the krona exchange rate in a direction that would impede exports. A ceiling on household borrowing Another way of counteracting systemic risks is to use loan ceilings as a macroprudential policy instrument. These can certainly be focused on all categories of borrower in society, but, in the countries in which they have so far been applied, they have been directed at households and their indebtedness. 12 These instruments have usually been formulated as a limit on the amount of the loan in relation to the household’s income or the value of the household’s assets that form the collateral for the loan. There is no internationally harmonised definition of these instruments, allowing them to be defined differently as regards loan amount, income and value of underlying collateral. In Sweden, Finansinspektionen issued a recommendation almost two years ago regarding a limit on how much borrowers may borrow, the so-called mortgage ceiling. According to this, household loans should not exceed 85 per cent of the property’s market value when the loan is granted. Lending above this threshold is still possible, but should be granted without residential collateral and therefore at higher interest rates.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  The banks’ capital ratios are determined by their capital and assets and by the risk weights used for calculating the risk-weighted assets. If the risk weightings on lending to sectors considered as higher risk are increased, the banks must allocate more capital per loan. This could dampen lending to higher risk sectors. Our domestic banking crisis at the start of the 1990s provides one example of how systemic risks can build up and become concentrated upon a single sector – in this case, commercial properties. An increase of the risk weighting on loans to commercial properties might have been able to alleviate the crisis that we went through then. In Sweden, recent discussions have, above all, dealt with risk weightings on mortgage loans, which are among the lowest in Europe due to the historically- low loan losses. But there is reason to question these low risk weightings, as they do not account for recent years’ increases in household indebtedness. Consequently, Finansinspektionen has also started work on reviewing the risk weights with the aim of increasing them. I consider that variable risk weighting is a macroprudential policy instrument that it would be advantageous to include in a toolbox for Sweden. It could both strengthen the banks’ resilience against systemic risks in a broad sense, and reduce the risks associated with lending to a specific sector.