samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A similar effect has operated for households: borrowers with floating rate mortgages in particular have seen their monthly repayments fall sharply. More generally, by reducing the returns on saving, the fall in interest rates has encouraged households and businesses to spend. The MPC’s programme of asset purchases has further stimulated demand by injecting additional money directly into the economy. The Bank’s purchases of government bonds encourage investors to diversify into alternative assets, such as corporate bonds and equities. The Bank is also operating directly in commercial paper and corporate bond markets to improve the functioning of those markets. Both actions have helped to boost the prices of corporate assets, reducing yields and lowering the cost to companies of raising funds in capital markets. This in turn should help to stimulate increased spending. The dramatic easing in monetary policy occurred alongside a range of Government policies. Most importantly, the Government’s actions to provide both capital and liquidity were  1  2  See Eichengreen and O’Rourke (2009). Romer (2009) makes a similar point. BIS Review 159/2009  instrumental in stabilising the banking system. The temporary reduction in VAT and the car scrappage scheme have boosted household spending and provided short-term support to retailers and the car industry. And the Government’s Business Payment Support Service has reportedly enabled almost a quarter of a million small and medium-sized firms to delay tax payments.

Spencer Dale: 2009 – a review of the economic year Remarks by Mr Spencer Dale, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, at the Chairman’s Annual Breakfast, Essex Institute of Directors, Billericay, 2 December 2009. *  *  *  I would like to thank Rohan Churm, Julia Giese and Chris Young for their considerable help in preparing these remarks. The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of other members of the Monetary Policy Committee. Introduction Thank you for the invitation to speak to you this morning. On the occasion of the Chairman’s Annual breakfast, I thought it would be fitting to look back over the events of the past year. A year which started with our country – together with much of the rest of the world – in economic freefall. A year in which many firms and families suffered significant hardship, as output fell markedly and unemployment rose. But a year which is ending with signs that the economy is stabilising and has turned a corner on the road to recovery. Financial crisis and collapse in confidence The financial crisis obviously predates the beginning of this year. The first signs of the instability can be traced back to at least the summer of 2007, when the emerging sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States and the resulting pressure on banks’ balance sheets around the world led to a sharp tightening in the availability of credit.
Concluding remarks I remember once hearing Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, the outgoing member of the executive board of the ECB, saying that there is no need for a European supervisor if national supervisors can prove that, when needed, they are able to act as one. Personally, I find it hard to see how, in the long run, the EU could avoid establishing an EU financial supervisor. At the moment, we are spending considerable supervisory and central bank resources on trying to construct arrangements that will enable us to work and act as one. Why not instead become one, and spend the resources on supervision and monitoring? Coming back to the title of this address, I would like to conclude that even though financial stability and supervision has been divorced in most EU countries there are few reasons to expect the life of central bankers and supervisors to be very stable in the coming years. It will probably not happen overnight, but the integration of European financial institutions and markets will eventually mean big changes also for the financial authorities. To ensure a good outcome for the European financial market, central banks and supervisors will have to be flexible and reinvent their roles and tools. BIS Review 35/2005  7

of PopulaBanking PopulaBanking Outlets tion per tion Density Branch (All ('00,000) Banks) *  Province  Banking Population Density per Branch  1  Colombo  415  24.56  16.90  5,918.07  2  Gampaha  174  21.40  8.13  12,298.85  3  Kalutara  89  11.11  8.01  12,483.15  4  Matale  38  4.77  7.97  12,552.63  5  Kandy  96  13.80  6.96  14,375.00  6  Nuwara Eliya  46  7.42  6.20  16,130.43  7  Galle  78  10.52  7.41  13,487.18  8  Matara  70  8.13  8.61  11,614.29  9  Hambantota  50  5.52  9.06  11,040.00  10  Jaffna  40  5.99  6.68  14,975.00  11  Killinochchi  4  1.46  2.74  36,500.00  12  Mullativu  4  1.47  2.72  36,750.00  13  Mannar  5  1.01  4.95  20,200.00  14  Vavuniya  8  1.66  4.82  20,750.00  15  Ampara  42  6.15  6.83  14,642.86  16  Batticaloa  20  5.23  3.82  26,150.00  17  Trincomalee  18  3.55  5.07  19,722.22  18  Kurunegala  101  15.24  6.63  15,089.11  19  Puttalam  53  7.52  7.05  14,188.68  20  Anuradhapura  66  8.01  8.24  12,136.36  21  Polonnaruwa  34  3.95  8.61  11,617.65  22  Badulla  71  8.50  8.35  11,971.83  23  Monaragala  35  4.25  8.24  12,142.86  24  Kegalle  68  8.02  8.48  7.42 13,485.71  25  Ratnapura  72  10.86  6.63  11,794.12 Sabaragamuw a 15,083.33  1,697  200.10  8.48  11,791.40  8.48 11,791.40  Total * Branches only  BIS Review 40/2008  Western  11.88  8,417.40  Central  6.93 14,438.89  Southern  8.19 12,207.07  Northern  5.26 19,000.00  Eastern  5.36 18,662.50  North Western  6.77 14,779.22  North Central  8.36 11,960.00  Uva  8.31 12,028.30  Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka  3  Table I shows that as at the end of 2007, there were 678 banking outlets in the Western Province out of a total branch network of 1,697 in the whole country.
I would like here to outline how the Swiss National Bank can help to ensure more efficient and more reliable financial market infrastructures through its oversight of payment and securities settlement systems. I would, however, like to make one key point right away: state intervention in, or regulation of, financial market infrastructures is justified only if it must be assumed that the private sector will not necessarily perform these functions of its own accord in a manner that is best for the economy. In reality, when designing a system its operators and participants will probably consider the direct costs that they would bear themselves in the event of a system failure or the withdrawal of a participant. However, the remaining costs that are not borne directly by the parties involved in the event of a system crisis tend to be forgotten in management calculations. It cannot be ruled out, then, that operators and participants take less account of the security of a system than would be necessary from the perspective of the broader economy. It is a classic problem of market failure. The sense and purpose of overseeing payment and securities settlement systems is to give due consideration to the externalities that would be neglected by the private sector and to ensure that financial market infrastructures provide the optimum degree of reliability from the point of view of the national economy.

The Committee is sensitive to the concerns raised about the need to respect the long-term lending culture prevalent in a number of countries. In this context, we will examine carefully how, or even whether, maturity factors should apply to lending to smaller businesses. Treatment of equity exposures The changes I have referred to concern bank loans, which, of course, are a key source of funding for many companies. Nearly all businesses – especially those growing into medium or large-sized firms – also rely on investments from outside parties to build up their capital base. Here, I’m referring to outsiders who provide “venture capital” for growing firms, as well as to investors who buy the publicly traded stock of more established firms. What do I mean by venture capital? Many small firms seek an “angel” investor, one who sees the potential in the firm’s strategy and is confident enough of its success to make a substantial investment. The angel might be a single wealthy individual, an investment fund or, in some cases, even a bank. In exchange for the investment, the investor receives an ownership interest in the income and assets of that firm. The Basel Committee recognizes that both venture capital and equity investments often are catalysts for innovation and growth in the economy. At the same time, we recognize that such investments can represent high-risk activities for banks.
Rather, the actions of all major countries have sufficient spill-over effects on other countries that they will then react in turn. The international economic system is better seen as a “game” in which there are many players of varying sizes, each adopting their own strategy. This has important implications. A world of atomistic countries requires no assumptions to be made about the objectives of others. The impersonal prices that we face contain all the information relevant to our own decisions. But in the international economic “game” it is important to know about the objectives, strategies – “policy reaction functions” – and policy decisions of other countries. In as much as these reaction functions are not well understood, the consequences of policy choices may not be reliably priced by markets. Policy makers, therefore, are more likely to make incompatible choices if they make decisions independently relying solely on international prices as their guide for the consequences of their actions. An international financial institution might, therefore, help in two ways. First, even if countries are not willing to cooperate in the formal sense that they agree jointly on macroeconomic policies, a forum which improves knowledge and understanding of other countries’ objectives and policy reaction functions may lead to more compatible policies. Second, such an institution might provide the public good of a dispassionate and independent analysis of the spill-over effects of one country’s policies on others.

The currency flows might have resulted in a strong krone and large variations in the exchange rate. This tendency is countered when the annual use of petroleum revenues over the central government budget is predictable and independent of annual revenue flows, and the remainder is invested abroad. Investments by the Government Petroleum Fund in foreign currencies create a capital outflow that contributes to curbing the appreciation of the krone and maintaining its stability. Norges Bank has not defined an exchange rate target. Nevertheless, developments in the krone are of considerable importance to interest-rate setting because exchange rate developments have an impact on inflation and output. When there are prospects of moderate economic activity, low wage growth and low inflation, Norges Bank will reduce the interest rate. This will normally result in a depreciation of the krone. Prices for imported goods and services will increase. A weaker krone strengthens the competitiveness of Norwegian enterprises and indirectly leads to higher output, employment and inflation. Themes in foreign exchange markets shift. In periods, investor focus on stock returns feeds through to exchange rate movements. During periods of political and economic unrest, investors may choose individual currencies as a safe haven - often the Swiss franc. In autumn 2002, the Norwegian krone was probably also perceived as a safe haven. In addition, oil prices rose as a result of the uncertainty associated with the war in Iraq. Since December 2002, the interest rate has been reduced by a total of 5¼ percentage points.
The increase in the number of banks, branches and their agencies, as well as the growing number of bank employees have caused the coverage of the population to improve significantly. Thus, the number of inhabitants per bank, banking unit and per bank employee has decreased considerably. 2  BIS Review 101/2006  Table 2: Coverage with banking services 2003  2004  2005  2,236  2,816  3,479  161  188  250  149  176  217  13.9  15  13.9  bank  206,851  194,971  184,410  banking unit  20,815  16,593  12,539  bank employee  1,388  1,108  901  Number of employees Number of branches, agencies Number of employees per: bank banking unit 1  Number of inhabitants per :  Table 3: The expansion of the banks’ network by the end of the 9-month period of 2006Banks Nof No. Banks No. of Branches No.

It mainly relates to the significant growing number of Banka Popullore branches, which opened 15 new branches throughout the territory of Albania over 2005, and to several other banks within this group, which expanded with some new branches and agencies after a period of long inactivity. The number of employees grew considerably over 2005, by 24 per cent, from the growth of 26 per cent over 2004. This significant growth in the number of employees is mainly related to the expansion of the banking system network and to the extension of the banks’ activities, which requires a better division of work and a more complete organizational structure. By the end 2005, the Albanian banking system had 3,479 employees, from 2,816 over the previous year. Compared to the previous year, the number of employees per banking unit decreased over 2005. In 2005, banks had 13.9 employees per banking unit, compared to 15 over 2004. Such a decrease has been a consequence of the growing number of branches and agencies with higher rates than the growth of the number of employees. A considerable number of branches and agencies have been established in sparsely populated areas; as a consequence, the number of employees in these branches and agencies has been quite small. The number of loan officers has increased considerably, following the significant growth of lending over 2005 and in the upcoming period. A considerable number of banks have restructured their loan departments, aiming at a more distinct division of duties and responsibilities.
After the wage settlement last year, we projected annual wage growth in 2002 of between 5½ and 6 per cent. Wage growth in 2002 was far higher than expected. Substantial pay increases were also agreed on for 2003. The various groups achieved very different results, increasing the risk of wage-wage spirals. The outcome of last year’s wage settlement may be an indication that the social partners considered the labour market to be very tight this spring. Annual wage growth in 2002 Projections published at different points in time. Per cent  6  6  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 Fe b  De c  01 Ap r0 1 Ju n 01 Au g 01 O ct 01 De c 01 Fe b 02 Ap r0 2 Ju n 02 Au g 02 O ct 02  7  00  7  Source: Norges Bank SG Gausdal 31.01.03  There is little new information about wage developments since the wage settlement last year. Agreements have been concluded awarding high pay increases to seamen and doctors. We may have underestimated the growth in salaries for white-collar workers last year, but there is also some anecdotal evidence to suggest that during the autumn large companies and law and consultancy firms tightened cost control.

The central banks also cooperate on matters of this type in the framework of the Bank for International Settlements in Basle, Switzerland, where representatives of central banks throughout the world meet regularly once a month. Conclusion To sum up, the financial system is undergoing a rapid transformation and development. The middle of the 19th century is commonly associated with the industrial revolution. Perhaps future historians will see the late 20th century as the era of the financial revolution. Europe’s move towards a single currency will accelerate the trend. The transformation and development of the financial system will ultimately contribute to future prosperity. But experience has taught us that it is a development which needs to be monitored very closely and presupposes a high degree of discipline in economic policy. It requires a great deal from decision-makers in the political system and the supervisory authorities, as well as from those of us who work in central banks. BIS Review 81/1998  -6-  Developments in the financial field are creating large opportunities. But it is also important to bear in mind that major, far-reaching changes normally entail risks. In view of these risks, every agent in the financial system needs to act wisely and discerningly. Only in this way can the full benefits be drawn from the opportunities that financial developments are providing. BIS Review 81/1998
How we manage the fund in the best way possible and ensure that its assets benefit current and future generations alike is a question that is more relevant than ever. A part of the answer is to make the most of the fund’s defining characteristics – size, liquidity and long-term horizon – to create excess return. The experience of the past 20 years shows that this is possible. As a large, long-term investor, we manage the fund responsibly. This requires active ownership. We engage in dialogue with companies worldwide in order to improve their long-term earnings and weed out companies with business models that are not sustainable. Here we must also take active investment decisions. Such a large fund cannot be managed passively. Responsible investment requires active ownership. Active management and active ownership are closely related. This interaction has huge potential. Active management entails risk. To mitigate this risk, the Bank’s Executive Board and investment management organisation have established a set of investment strategies. These strategies complement one another and constitute a whole. Over time, they have yielded excess returns, well within the risk limits set in the Bank’s mandate. Finally, we depend on the people in the organisation to achieve our set objectives. Many of our asset managers have built up unique expertise by monitoring companies closely through many years’ work. Others contribute ideas and approaches to developing new methods and analyses. Still others help to make choices large and small every day to create excess returns.

The introduction of the euro has profoundly changed the environment in which the Swiss economy operates. Since 1999, the Swiss franc has coexisted quite harmoniously with the euro. In fact, the franc has been more stable against the euro than it was against the D mark. This is good news for Swiss companies exporting to the European market. On the other hand, such companies have to contend with a greater concentration of foreign-exchange risks. They are responding to this challenge with hedging policies that are more active than those pursued in the past. Pegging the franc to the euro in order to eliminate exchange-rate risks would entail more problems than advantages, as it would inevitably push up the level of interest rates in Switzerland. Against this backdrop, the National Bank is continuing to pursue an independent monetary policy that takes account not only of economic trends and inflation forecasts but also of the situation on the foreign exchange markets. BIS Review 10/2004  1
Parentage would also be important – it would be highly desirable from our point of view that an internet bank was itself majority-owned by another well-established bank that could provide guidance and financial support if necessary. In general, we would need to be assured that the virtual bank has “substance”, and is not simply a “concept”, taking advantage of the popularity of the internet. On this basis, our authorisation and supervisory regime for virtual banks would be similar to that for conventional banks. However, an offshore internet bank, whether wholly “virtual” or not, might not attempt to take deposits in Hong Kong in the strict legal sense – in other words, the deposit contract might not necessarily be created in Hong Kong. Instead, the offshore internet bank might invite potential customers to send their money to a location abroad, where the deposit would be legally created. In this case, the bank would be taking deposits outside Hong Kong and would not require authorisation under the Banking Ordinance to carry on a deposit-taking business here. But that is not the end of the story. It is also an offence to advertise for deposits in Hong Kong, even if they are to be taken outside the territory, unless the disclosure requirements of the Fifth Schedule of the Banking Ordinance are adhered to. An advertisement would include one contained on a website. The problem is how to determine whether a particular offshore website is targeted at Hong Kong.

This has significantly reduced transaction costs for all involved and has the potential to generate significant growth in Thailand’s e-commerce sector, as well as radically change the way government welfare payments are distributed. To date, more than 44 million PromptPay accounts have been registered with more than 100 million transactions per month, and we expect to see a continual growth in these numbers as more people, especially business sectors, utilize the system. With systematically recorded e-payment data, banks will be able to evaluate potential SME borrowers and make it possible for SMEs with little credit history or collaterals to get credit. Electronic payments will help transform the ecosystem for SME finance, from collateral-based lending to information-based lending. In addition to the development of electronic payment systems, we are investigating the use of blockchain technology in the finance industry. The Thailand Blockchain Community Initiative, a collaboration between 14 Thai banks and 7 leading businesses and state-owned enterprises, started a pilot project to offer blockchainbased letters of guarantee. The Bank of Thailand has initiated two other projects. The first project is scriptless bond issuance using distributed ledger technology, which would significantly speed up saving bond allocation to retail investors from 15 days to only two days as well as granting more flexibility for bond issuers. Another project in the pipeline is “Project Inthanon”, an experiment on a new way of conducting interbank settlement using wholesale central bank digital currency.