samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But before I go on, let me remind you that the views I express are my own and may not reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. The topic of this conference may not appear particularly glamorous. It is natural to view monetary policy implementation as a technical and humble exercise next to the flashiness of policy formulation, which has policymakers determining the appropriate level of interest rates. However, for those of us charged with carrying out policymakers’ decisions, there is keen interest in the mechanics. We have the task of designing and executing operations that ensure that policymakers’ instructions are implemented effectively and efficiently, so that their intentions can affect inflation and the real economy. But while monetary policy implementation is just a means to an end, there is no obvious single “right” way to do it, and every central bank’s operating framework reflects history, unique institutional constraints and the market environment, which may change over time. So even though the topic of today’s conference may seem to lack glamour, it is significant, particularly now, since monetary policy implementation and the market landscape have undergone profound changes in recent years. Many advanced economy central banks have adopted a number of new tools to implement monetary policy or used traditional tools in new ways or in unprecedented size, in part because economic conditions have necessitated historically low interest rates that have bumped up against the zero bound for almost seven years.

William C Dudley: Improving culture and conduct in the financial services industry Opening remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at “Reforming Culture and Behavior in the Financial Services Industry: Workshop on Progress and Challenges”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 5 November 2015. *  *  *  Welcome to the New York Fed and to a discussion of how culture and conduct might be improved within the financial services industry. I am pleased to see all of you here today – there is tremendous breadth of experience and responsibility within this room. We need to take full advantage of this opportunity. I encourage all participants to be candid and on-point, because the task of reforming culture is formidable. 1 Untrustworthy behavior on the scale that we have witnessed in financial services does not arise in a vacuum. Social science research makes it clear that context largely drives conduct. 2 This is not a new insight. Adam Smith observed centuries ago that, independent of personal sentiment, we often behave according to what we “[see are] the established rules of behavior.” 3 We observe the activity around us, assess the norms of conduct and generally adapt to those norms in our own behaviors. Banking is not exempt from this universal propensity.
Source: Bank of England 2017 Q2 Credit Conditions Survey (CCS). (a) A positive balance indicates that the changes in the factors described have served to increase credit availability. (b) Question: ‘How have the following factors affected overall secured credit availability to households over the latest three months relative to the previous three months?’ The chart shows responses to the option 'market share objectives'. (c) Net percentage balances are calculated by weighting together the responses of those lenders who answered the question by their market shares. Chart 17. Proportion of new mortgages with (a) no fees  Chart 18. Loan to income distribution of new (a) mortgage lending  Per cent  Proportion of £ fee new mortgages  50 45 40 35  30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2011  12  13  14  15  16  17  Sources: Moneyfacts and Bank calculations. (a) The proportion of £ fee products in each year is calculated relative to the total number of new mortgages offered during the year. The proportion in 2017 is calculated based on data from January to April 2017. Sources: FCA Product Sales Database and Bank calculations. (a) The Product Sales Database includes regulated mortgages only. 21  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  21  Chart 19. Major UK banks’ capital ratios  Chart 20.

These are all good reasons to continue our dialogue in the coming months and to meet with you, for example next year, to take stock of all these issues! Thank you for your attention. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
Prices rose by around 3 per cent annually for a long period, but since 1995 they have been falling by about 6 per cent annually. This kink point coincides with the dismantling of the restrictions on textile trade and it coincides with a period of rationalisation in retail trade in Norway. China’s membership of the WTO has subsequently pushed down prices further. The Internet facilitates price comparison, and price margins in all sectors are under pressure. World financial markets are also in flux. Technological advances, increased trade and liberalisation have increased cross-border capital flows. Foreign ownership of businesses has increased considerably. At the same time, savings are increasingly being invested in foreign countries. The home bias for investment has diminished. In recent years, long-term interest rates have declined. Low and stable inflation in many countries has made a contribution. Investors have less of a need to hedge against high inflation. There is a strong tendency to save among Asian and oil-exporting countries, while the willingness to invest is limited in many industrialised countries. This is pushing down interest rates. Low long-term rates probably also reflect low short-term interest rates and ample liquidity. Interest rate developments and buoyant growth have led to a sharp rise in equity prices in the past few years. At the same time, property prices are rising sharply in many countries. Low interest rates, sharply rising equity and property prices, high commodity prices and high energy prices are probably linked to cyclical developments and may therefore be transitory.

Low interest rates contributed at the beginning of the upturn to high growth in private consumption and housing investment. Last year, exports and corporate investment also showed solid growth. There is now a broad upswing in demand for goods and services. It has taken time for employment to pick up, but this is occurring now. Inflation has increased somewhat, but is still very low, even 2½ years after the cyclical change. Inflation is still being restrained by the fall in prices for imported consumer goods, increased competition in a number of markets and the current period of lower nominal pay increases. The trend in prices for consumer goods over the past two or three years is a result of favourable developments in the Norwegian and global economies. Low inflation is being accompanied by real income growth and a rise in production. In other words, low inflation is not the result of declining demand, activity or employment. The labour supply and production equipment set a limit in the short term on the level of production in Norwegian enterprises. When production approaches this limit, wage and price inflation will pick up. For an open economy like Norway’s, this limit can vary. We buy an increasingly wide range of goods and services abroad. The production of goods for the domestic market can be moved abroad. Services can also be provided by producers in other countries. Norwegian companies are no longer looking to the domestic labour market only. Other Nordic countries are an important source of labour.
The floating krone exchange rate has been able to act as a shock absorber for downturns in the Norwegian economy. In periods where oil prices have fallen and the economy has moved into recession, the krone exchange rate has depreciated and contributed to strengthening competitiveness and preventing inflation from moving too low. Nevertheless, interest rate setting is not decoupled from interest rate developments in other countries. A rise in foreign interest rates normally pulls in the direction of a weaker krone. A weaker krone pushes up prices for imported goods. When inflation is already high, as now, this increases the risk of inflation becoming entrenched, which we must take into consideration when setting the policy rate. If the FX market loses confidence in our commitment to tighten monetary policy when inflation rises, the krone may depreciate further. Confidence in the inflation target is a precondition for monetary policy's ability to dampen fluctuations in the economy and to support high employment. 3/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  In the long term, there is no conflict between the objective of price stability and high and stable employment. Ensuring that inflation remains low and stable is the most important contribution monetary policy can make to promoting high employment over time. We cannot keep employment permanently above potential by keeping the policy rate low. The level of employment over time is determined by structural conditions such as labour force composition, the tax and social welfare system and wage formation.

Caleb M Fundanga: How the Bank of Zambia’s policies are impacting Eastern Province developments Remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the Eastern Province Chamber of Commerce and Industry Open Meeting, Chipata, 17 January 2008. *  *  *  • The Chairman – Eastern Province Chamber of Commerce and Industry (EPCCI) • Members of the Executive Committee – EPCCI • EPCCI Members • Invited Guests • Ladies and Gentlemen First and foremost, I must state that I am pleased to have finally made the trip to Eastern Province under the invitation of the EPCCI. The visit was planned for last year but due to other commitments I could not make it. In this regard, I made it a point to make sure that I visit the province before the end of the first quarter. I am happy that we have actualized our plans during the first month. It is our hope that we will also be able to visit other provincial towns off the line of rail during the course of the year. Mr. Chairman, one may question what is the purpose of the Bank of Zambia to visit these outlying areas? The answer is simple and is drawn from our mission statement – which is “to formulate and implement monetary and supervisory policies that will ensure price and financial system stability”. Our visit is therefore, to enable us assess the extent to which our policies are impacting development in the Eastern Province.
Page | 1  This assessment can be broadly confirmed at the current juncture. GDP growth in the first half of 2018 averaged 5.4%, which is in line with the latest projections that the Central Bank published over the summer. The unemployment rate fell to a new record low of 3.8% in the second quarter of this year. Labour market participation, previously on the low side, now slightly exceeds the euro area average. In the area of public finances, the general government balance remains in surplus, the debt-to-GDP ratio extended its downward path, and contingent liabilities, while still elevated, are now within the range observed in other countries. The external balance remains in surplus and inflationary  pressures remain contained. When compared with the information available a year ago, the economic record is even more impressive. Then, GDP growth in 2017 was recorded at 5.6%, now the latest vintage of data puts last year’s growth rate at 6.7%. Growth in 2018 is also expected to be higher than previously expected. The European Commission’s latest projections foresee growth this year at 5.4%, the second highest rate the European Union after that of Ireland. This compares with a projection of 4.9% in November 2017. According to the European Commission, fast growth rates are expected to prevail through 2020, although as one might expect, the pace of expansion is set to moderate from recent highs, with annual growth reckoned to stand at 4.4% in 2020. All this is positive news, but there is also some not so good news.

The Government’s efforts need to be complemented with a better utilisation of savings accumulated by the private sector. The Malta Development Bank can help in this regard, by identifying gaps in the financing of viable projects and partnering with financial intermediaries and other stakeholders to develop financial instruments that can finance them. Apart from infrastructure bottlenecks, international institutions that monitor the business environment flag other areas that warrant immediate attention. While we have significant  reservations on a number of methodological aspects underlying such surveys, we also share the view that in some areas we do need to step up our efforts very considerably. This is notably the case as regards the efficiency of court proceedings. Although the time it takes to resolve court cases has more or less halved since 2010, it is still among the longest in the European Union. Other challenges we need to address concern the length of procedures to set up a business, the low educational attainment level relative to our peers and a limited capacity to innovate. These are essential elements that support investment and productivity. The development of an intelligent online business portal which ties all Government business-related services into a one solid platform should put businesses in a better position to do business. The new legislation in the area of digital innovation provides the legal framework for business to embrace disruptive technologies.
Accordingly, the strategy followed aimed at a simultaneous implementation of the package of interrelated measures in order to secure sufficient impact on the behaviour of economic agents. Given the above general consensus, there were, however, widely differentiated stances as regards the contents of the respective “minimum packages”, their sequencing and the speed of their implementation. In previous discussions two alternative options - “fast” and “slow” movers - used to be identified as a shock therapy approach against a step-by-step, gradualistic or evolutionary type of approach. BIS Review 25/1997  -3-  The Czechoslovak scenario opted for a transition path which was implemented as quickly as feasible, implying some parallel features with the shock therapy approach, in particular with reference to one stroke, simultaneous liberalisation of domestic prices, foreign trade and foreign exchange, and the introduction of limited currency convertibility (on current account for registered domestic businesses) at the very beginning of the transition process. The shock therapy approach was developed for the stabilisation programmes and followed in some countries of Latin America as well as in Poland and former Yugoslavia, where the dominant target of the economic policy was to cope with hyperinflation, to stabilise the economy as much and as fast as possible. The initial conditions in the CSFR differed, however, from those of the countries mentioned. Strategy of systemic and structural reforms The programme of political and economic transformation was formed during 1990, started in January 1991, and continued in the Czech Republic after the split of Czechoslovakia.

This led to the displacement of more than 25,000 people, loss of lives and significant economic damage. Last year, 53 weather disasters across the world racked up more than USD1 billion in economic losses 1. In fact, it is estimated that altogether, economic losses from natural disasters were more than a quarter of a trillion US dollars in 2020 2. These events are prompting a renewed determination around the world to achieve a new balance of economic, social and environmental progress. Indeed, the pandemic presents a once-in-ageneration opportunity to place sustainable development firmly at the core of recovery plans. To date, Governments of more than 120 countries have committed to “Net Zero” by mid-century or earlier. Among the countries are some of Malaysia’s major trading partners such as the EU, South Korea, Japan and China. Similarly, more and more companies are also adopting net zero targets. It is noteworthy that in 2020 – during the pandemic - such commitments by regions increased by ninefold, and threefold by corporates. This is significant. A fast growing number of countries have also introduced climate change legislation and carbon management programs. Global climate change laws are reported to have increased twenty-fold since 1997 across 164 countries, up from 99 countries just 6 years ago 3. Climate-related laws and frameworks are also being strengthened in many countries, in ways that could significantly alter the course of economic development going forward.
The evidence presented is largely based on ongoing research within the Bank and it naturally supplements some of the main topics discussed in our 2017 Trend Growth Report. It also attests to the generosity of multiple institutions that, through covenants, have cooperated by sharing this information, including the INE, the Internal Revenue Service, the Civil Registry, the Labor Directorate and the Ministry of Education. Final remarks Before I conclude this presentation, I would like to mention the materialization of an initiative that we anticipated when we presented the September Monetary Policy Report before the Senate’s plenary. On that occasion we announced that the Bank will seek an external evaluation of its performance in complying with its Organic Law’s double mandate, that is, to safeguard price stability and financial stability. For this purpose, a panel of renowned world experts in central banking will be convened. I want to take this opportunity to inform you that we have appointed the five foreign economists that will make up the aforesaid panel of experts: Dr Karnit Flug (Chair), former governor of the Central Bank of Israel, and professors Dr Petra Geraats, from the University of Cambridge, UK; Guillermo Calvo, from Columbia University, US; Enrique Mendoza, from the University of Pennsylvania, US; and Donald Kohn, Senior Researcher at the Brookings Institution and who formerly served as ViceGovernor of the US Federal Reserve Board. We selected the panel on the basis of these experts’ vast professional experience and knowledge of central banking, all renowned economists at the world level.

the ratio of persons over the age of 67 to persons aged 20 to 66, will rise sharply in the years ahead. The National Insurance Scheme’s spending on old age and disability pensions, based on current social security rules, is increasing. The return on the Petroleum Fund can only cover a small portion of higher pension expenditure. The chart shows how pension expenditure and the real return on the Petroleum Fund will develop in the years to 2060. The calculations were carried out by the Ministry of Finance and based on a long-term oil price of 180 2004-kroner (around USD 27). Even with a long-term oil price of 230 2004-kroner (around USD 35), a funding requirement equivalent to 6 per cent of GDP will still not be covered in 2060. Oil futures six to seven years ahead are now higher than this. If oil prices remain as high in the future, the funding requirement will be somewhat lower. To base decisions on this, however, would be a very risky strategy. The economic outlook The size of the return on our savings, at the national or the personal level, will depend on how well we have invested, but also on economic developments. For our pensions, it is important that wealth creation is substantial in the years ahead. It is natural for me to focus on how monetary policy can contribute to high wealth creation. Monetary policy in Norway is oriented towards low and stable inflation.
In 2005, while the maturities of assets of the banking sector were extended, the liabilities still had short-term maturities. This shows that the vulnerability against the interest rate risk and the maturity mismatch of the sector increased. In order to facilitate banks’ interest rate risk management, it is deemed necessary to make regulations that will also allow floating rate consumer credits along with the currently available fixed rate credits. In 2005, the ratio of liquid assets to total assets decreased as a result of the continuation of the upward trend in credits. Nevertheless, despite the short-term structure of deposits, especially the renewable nature of the major portion of term savings deposits, low condensation and the fact that the assets, which can be accepted by the Central Bank as collateral, comprise a significant part of the assets of the sector are considered risk-reducing factors with respect to liquidity management. Distinguished Guests, In a falling inflation environment, increasing fundamental banking activities along with banks’ narrowing profit margins, and the rise in net wages and commission revenues, which is a more stable source of income, make a positive contribution to the diversity of assets and income of the sector. Hence, they have a favorable effect on profitability performance, which has an important role in financial stability. The capital adequacy ratio of the banking sector is realized well above the legal limit of 8 percent.

It is planned to finalize the studies on the Financial Sector Assessment Program, which were started at the beginning of 2006 with the  4  BIS Review 68/2006  coordination of the Undersecretariat of the Treasury in order to contribute to the ongoing reform process of the Turkish financial sector, by the end of the year. The Financial Sector Assessment Program process in Turkey is expected to contribute to the development of the financial sector in terms of institutional infrastructure. Furthermore, the resistance of the sector will be analyzed on an international platform via stress tests to be applied to banks within the framework of the Program. Distinguished Guests, Proper and effective implementation of macroeconomic policies, in other words, the achievement of macroeconomic stability, is the sine qua non of financial stability. It is very important for the banking sector, which should be able to cope with the Basel II process in the near future, that the improvement of the infrastructure of the financial system continues and that efficient control and supervision is carried out. As firms will contribute to stable growth with the funds that they obtain from banks, the compatibility of the corporate sector with the Basel II process is of great importance as well. In this framework, determined implementation of current economic policies, increased confidence in financial markets, the establishment of risk culture and the adjustment of economic actors’ risk perceptions according to dynamic conditions will strengthen the stability in financial markets.