samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The Central Bank developed new tools and introduced new policies to facilitate a stable course in both exchange rates and credit growth and hence, helped the rapid recovery of our country from the deepening of the global financial crisis during 2008–2009; and enabled it to weather the European sovereign debt crisis of 2011–2012 with minimum damage. 1  Barro, Robert J. (1995). “Inflation and Economic Growth.” NBER Working Paper Series, No: 5326. 2  Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. (2009). This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Press. ; Taylor, A. (2012). “The Great Leveraging,” NBER Working Papers, No. 18290. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Loans and exchange rates are the two main variables, which are significant for not only price stability, but also financial stability. Therefore, decreasing excessive volatility in the credit growth rate and exchange rates underpins financial stability. Distinguished Participants, Now I would like to touch upon the contributions of Turkey to global financial stability. Turkey became a member of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) in 2009. It will take part in G20 Troika in 2014 and assume the Annual Presidency of the G20 in 2015. Moreover, Turkey’s representative from the Under secretariat of Treasury will be assigned to the FSB Steering Committee during the 2014–2016 period when Turkey will be in G20 Troika. Moreover, Turkey became a member of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS) in 2009.

Erdem Başçi: Central bank responsibilities, global financial stability and payment systems Opening remarks by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the “Payment Systems Conference”, organized by Al Bank Wal Mustathmer Group, Istanbul, 5 December 2012. *  *  *  Distinguished Governors of the Central Banks, Distinguished Guests and Esteemed Members of the Press, I would like to thank you all on behalf of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and myself for your participation in the “Payment Systems Conference” organized by Al Bank Wal Mustathmer Group. Welcome to İstanbul and Turkey. Participants to the conference, who are all experts in the field, will be discussing payment systems, their significance and contemporary approaches. Before moving onto the topic of payment systems, I would like to briefly mention the main responsibility areas of central banks. Distinguished Guests, Price stability, financial stability and the development of the financial sector are three significant fields central banks are responsible for, either partially or fully. The primary objective is price stability. The social costs to be incurred from the loss of price stability have been thoroughly understood by economists.
By promoting a more consistent approach to supervisory review, we intend to strengthen the quality of supervision across countries. We recognise as well the special function the Committee can offer in strengthening the ability of host supervisors – particularly those in emerging market economies – to regulate the local operations of foreign banks. Harmonisation of accounting standards and the New Basel Accord  Supervisory review helps to create very direct incentives for banks to evaluate and manage their risks carefully. Transparency can supplement that incentive by leveraging the power of financial markets to encourage prudent risk-taking, and I would like now to address the third pillar of the New Accord, namely market discipline. Even just over the past few months, the popular press has reported on several examples of corporations that failed to disclose adequately the kinds of activities in which they were involved and the degree to which they bore risk. Both inside and outside the banking industry, the renewed focus on sound corporate governance practices has highlighted the importance of appropriate disclosure to the market – and the dangers that ensue when companies fail to disclose their risks adequately. These failures in disclosure have added fuel to the drive to harmonise accounting and disclosure practices worldwide. With reference to the New Accord, many respondents quite correctly noted the need to align the supervisory framework more closely with the converging accounting practices worldwide.

MAS has funded 23 AIDA projects and published 5 requests-for-proposals on topics such as Quantum Computing and Explainable AI. To promote the responsible use of AI and data analytics, MAS and the industry cocreated the FEAT principles – for fairness, ethics, accountability, and transparency. Perhaps the most visible payoff for the investment in technology is in how well the industry has responded the COVID-19 crisis and been able to continue serving customers. Imagine if there was no retail electronic payment system or infrastructure for digital banking or buying insurance online or trading from home …. how would we have coped with circuit breakers and lockdowns? If the financial industry had not built up its digital capabilities, it would not have been able to continue operating without disruption, let alone grow by more than 5% during the first half of this year when the overall economy contracted by 6.7%. But we are still only about half-way along our journey to becoming a Smart Financial Centre. COVID-19 has shown that the world is changing in ways we may have never 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  imagined. The pace of digital transformation will only accelerate. Our work is not done yet. We will announce at the Singapore FinTech Festival in December more of our plans and initiatives for the next stage of our journey. But let me share with you here what we are willing to commit by way of funding. Of the $ million committed in 2015 for FSTI, we have utilised half the amount.
•  Capital and liquidity buffers in place through regulatory minimums and firms’ own economic capital calculations, once viewed as robust, proved in many cases to be inadequate to absorb mounting losses during the crisis. In addition, the supervisory apparatus proved slow to recognize and address the full dimension of the problem, and when some large, systemically important firms approached failure, the public sector lacked the tools to resolve them. •  Difficulties arose in winding down large derivatives portfolios because of their size and complexity, the back office logistics and settlement risks associated with derivatives portfolios, and the lack of a sufficiently harmonized international legal framework to handle counterparty default or failure. •  At least some business models in place before the crisis proved to be unsustainable. At many large institutions, the heavy reliance on generating mortgage-related revenues, whether through flawed underwriting or creating highly complex securities, proved a vulnerability; some institutions lacked stable revenue streams robust to macroeconomic conditions; some relied heavily on funding from short-term markets such as the tri-party repo market. Regulatory reform The wave of regulatory reform, of course, corresponds to a considerable degree with the problems observable during the crisis. Take, for example, solving the Too Big to Fail problem. The regulatory and financial stability agenda being advanced by the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is intended both to reduce the probability that large, systemically important firms could fail and to mitigate the costs of their failure, should that occur.

From the start of 1999, lending to the private sector grew at an annual trend rate of about 10% in connection with the pick-up in activity, but probably also the significant rise in the prices of property and financial assets, which were very responsive in certain sectors and economies of the area, as well as the rising number of mergers and acquisitions, many of which reflected direct investment outside the euro area. In France, twelve-month growth in total domestic debt stood at 8.1% in December 1999, compared with 4.5% in 1998. Among the elements forming the second pillar, the exchange rate of the euro is an important monetary policy indicator. The depreciation of the euro seen in 1999 is a matter of concern because it causes production costs and the general price level to rise. In addition, this depreciation of the European currency simultaneously reflected and boosted the negative financial flows, in the form of both direct and portfolio investment, that affected the entire euro area in 1999. The French economy, like the euro area’s, is enjoying favourable monetary and financial conditions and high competitiveness. These factors are facilitating a durable, non-inflationary upturn in activity. However, while a sound monetary policy is a necessary condition for economic success, it is not sufficient in itself to guarantee growth and job creation.
We are a member of Hyperledger along with private market participants and tech firms. 14  And we will make our next generation RTGS compatible with  settlement in a distributed ledger. It is not clear, however, that that the only challenges are technological. Indeed, the FCA highlighted earlier this week that settlement times could also be cut using existing technologies. 15  This requires market  participants to change their collective practices as it takes more than one intermediary in a chain to compress settlement times. Conclusion FinTech’s promise springs from its potential to unbundle banking into its core functions of settling payments, performing maturity transformation, sharing risk and allocating capital. This possibility is being realised by new entrants – payment service providers, aggregators and robo advisors, peer-to-peer lenders, and innovative trading platforms. And it is being influenced by incumbents who are adopting new technologies to reinforce the economies of scale and scope of their business models. FinTech could deliver significant benefits to households and businesses across this country and across the world. FinTech can widen access to financial services and bring new sources of credit. It can connect customers better with their finances and empower them more in the process. And new technologies can deliver faster service, greater choice and keener pricing. 14  Hyperledger is an open source collaborative effort intended to advance cross-industry blockchain technologies. It is a global collaboration which includes leaders in finance, banking, IoT, supply chain, manufacturing and technology.

I want to emphasise that in all these key positions Andrew has shown a remarkable capacity to generate new ideas, foster consensus, fuse different views and encourage dialogue, and all this with a subtle sense of humour and extraordinary attention for the human touch. Let me add that during his term at the helm of both the BIS and the Financial Stability Forum, his steady hand has been behind the international financial system’s success in confronting the serious shocks arising in recent years. In the case of Otmar Issing, I have the pleasure of meeting him regularly in the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, where his illuminating presentations on economic developments in the euro area are pivotal in guiding our monetary policy decisions. You should know that Otmar, an academic of outstanding personal and professional integrity, is a truly remarkable and experienced central banker. For many years as Chief Economist of the Bundesbank and a Member of its Board, he contributed to enhancing the reputation of this institution as one of the most successful central banks in the world. When the European Central Bank was created in June 1998 he became its Chief Economist and a member of the Executive Board. Over what has been nearly five years he has been deeply involved in the fascinating tasks of putting in place and managing the single monetary policy. Otmar Issing’s contribution to these tasks has, in my view, been outstanding.
In my opinion, to achieve a better situation for coming generations, we need to create a new, lower adjusted equilibrium on the housing market. This would also contribute towards reducing the differences between insiders and outsiders – the haves and the have-nots. Furthermore, household indebtedness would gradually decrease and would no longer create economic risks in the same way. I am aware that these measures would affect my generation’s housing assets today. But my opinion is that they need to be implemented so that the housing market in Sweden can function well tomorrow. 11 [13]  References Alter, A, Feng, A and N Valckx (2018), “Understanding the macro-financial effects of household debt: A global perspective”, IMF Working Papers No 18/76. Bäckman, C and C Lutz (2018), ”The impact of interest-only loans on affordability”, Regional Science and Urban Economics. Cunliffe, J (2019), “Housing tools revisited”, Bank of England. Dermani, E, Lindé, J, and K Walentin (2016),”Is a bubble forming in Swedish housing pices?”, Economic Review 2016:2. Sveriges riksbank. Emanuelsson, R (2015), ”Supply of housing in Sweden”. Economic Review 2015:2. Sveriges riksbank. Emanuelsson, R, Katinic, G and E Spector (2018), ”Developments in the housing market and their contribution to household debt”, Economic Commentary no. 14. Sveriges Riksbank. Emanuelsson, R, Melander, O and J Molin (2015), “Financial risks in the household sector”, Economic Commentary no. 6. Sveriges Riksbank. European Commission (2019), Country Report Sweden. European Systemic Risk Board (2016). ESRB/2016/11 on medium-term vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector of Sweden, September 2016.

15 Previous fluctuations in inflation, real interest rates and tax rules have created redistributions that have benefited certain generations at the cost of others and that have created an economic middle class of middle-aged and older people with relatively strong economic resources. Increasingly difficult to enter the housing market At the same time, those people outside the owned housing market, the outsiders, have not been able to take advantage of this development, and the high prices have made it increasingly difficult for them to be able to purchase a home at all. Particularly in metropolitan areas, it is difficult to save enough for a down payment without help. Without parents who can contribute to a down payment or stand as co-borrower for a mortgage, it has become more difficult for many firsttime buyers to purchase a home. The development of the housing market has therefore led to great differences in possibilities for people to enter the housing market. Another aspect of the problems on the owned housing market is that the lack of opportunities to purchase a home forces many young people to sublet. Subletting is often expensive and insecure for the subtenant, at the same time as their consumer protection is weak. Difficulties in finding a home also lead to problems in  14 Långtidsutredningen [Long-Term Survey of the Swedish Economy] (2015) and Jahnson, D. and J Lundberg (2013). 15 Långtidsutredningen [Long-Term Survey of the Swedish Economy] (2003). 5 [13]  skills supply.
And even though they may have wanted to counteract inflation, they did not have the independence to do so. Furthermore, spiking oil prices were responded to with pay hikes, creating a vicious cycle of rising wages and prices – a typical wage-price spiral. This is why inflation was not brought under control until central banks had been granted independence and explicitly tasked with safeguarding price stability. In Europe, the German central bank led the battle against inflation, and it can be said that other countries tried to bask in the warmth of German credibility by pegging their exchange rates to the Deutschmark. In the Nordic countries, price stability was not ensured before a consensus was reached in the labour market with the so-called Nordic model. So is this where we are today? The lengths to which the world’s largest central banks have gone in quantitative easing over the past decade is cause for concern. They have truly taken on the task of financing government spending by printing money. It will require a Herculean effort to climb out of this slippery slope. The outlook is for many countries’ financing costs to rise significantly thereafter. By the same token, the labour shortages that have developed in the West could create wage pressures and push inflation higher. Honoured guests: It is vitally important that we Icelanders draw accurate conclusions from our own monetary history in the wake of the 1973 oil shock.

In sum, a lot of work remains to be done both in the near- and in the medium-term. These perspectives underpins the agenda of today’s Seminar, which we have organized around two panels. A first panel, on Short-term Challenges towards a Complete EMU, will discuss the reform agenda that is feasible to pursue in the current European parliamentary cycle (until 2019). 4/5  In a second panel, on Long-term Prospects for a Cohesive EMU, we would like to address the medium- to long-run steps necessary to increase the euro area’s capacity to prevent crisis and to manage them. Finally, Economy Minister Ramón Escolano will close the Seminar explaining the strategic vision underlining the recent proposals on EMU architecture articulated by the Spanish government. The proposals constitute, in my view, a politically realistic program to advance the process of governance reform in the short-term without losing sight of the longer-term needs. The final goal being providing the EMU with a more solid institutional framework that help ensure the prosperity and well-being of euro area citizens and improve the public perception of the integration project. Now, according to the agenda, I give the floor to the moderator of the first panel, Paloma Marín. 5/5
In 1999, these widely defined political factors may have played some role for the relation between the euro and the US dollar. The conflict between the former German finance minister Lafontaine and the European Central Bank, the European undecidedness in the face of the Kosovo conflict, and the plans for a harmonization of taxes on interest payments, for example, may have contributed to the weakness of the euro against the dollar. In addition, the not always clear communication strategy of the European Central Bank concerning its views on the exchange rate of the euro may also have created some uncertainty. However, it is puzzling to see that the relation between the Swiss franc and the euro has not been disturbed by these factors. It may be that the markets perceived Switzerland as so strongly integrated in Europe that they almost forgot that the Swiss franc is an independent currency. Or, they believed that the Swiss National Bank, as declared in the early and uncertain days of the introduction of the euro, would not tolerate a sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc. Expectations of a SNB reaction certainly played a role. In my view, a further factor may explain the greater stability of the Swiss franc vis-à-vis the European currencies. One cannot exclude that the emergence of a large market for the euro has had a structural impact on the demand for Swiss francs. Today, the currency diversification of international portfolios occurs between blocks (dollars, euros, yen and Sterling).

For the first time in its history, Switzerland is surrounded by countries all sharing the same currency. Even without being a member of the Union, it is affected by this new monetary situation. De facto, our trade with Europe is already taking place in one currency only - the euro - because the parities of the former national currencies have been definitively locked. That means that our foreign trade is less diversified by currencies than earlier and that fluctuations of the SF/euro exchange rate have an even stronger impact on the Swiss economy than the former SF/DM or SF/FF exchange rates. At the same time, a common monetary policy for Europe is likely to lead - over time - to a stronger synchronization of business activity in the EMU member states. This, in turn, means that the impact of the European business cycle on the Swiss economy will become more even and thus also stronger. More than ever, Switzerland’s economic destiny will be linked to that of Europe. Today, Switzerland benefits already from the technical simplification induced by the substitution of ten different currencies by a single one. Monetary unification brings advantages to internationally oriented firms as it simplifies their foreign currency management and their accounting procedures. From the year 2002 onward, when the euro will exist in the form of cash, the single currency will make things even easier for a broad public, not only for the Europeans, but also for every Swiss travelling through the euro-zone.
As I pointed out in the introduction, there may be other changes in the economy (less predictable productivity growth, for example) that also warrant a change in the “reaction function”. So, if a statement signals some shift in how policy might respond to the economy, that doesn’t necessarily make it “Odyssean”. Nor does commitment mean you ignore entirely what’s going on in the economy: the blue policymaker is still “data dependent” in some sense, just less so – less responsive to inflation overshoots in particular – than the red. So although I’ve been stressing the contingent nature of “Delphic” guidance, and the relative invariance in the case of commitment, it’s not a rigid distinction. In any case, perhaps there’s always some room for interpretation when it comes to language. That said, I think one can still outline some broad parameters – things that colour a statement more in one shade than another – that can help distinguish the two. For example, Odyssean, committed guidance is probably more likely to refer to dates – a time-frame for low interest rates – than to economic conditions alone. If it does tie future policy to economic variables it may explicitly pick out inflation expectations (as Odyssean guidance is explicitly designed to raise them). More generally, it will actively seek to convey a more dovish stance relative to incoming data.

Without these things, a statement that simply says “we expect such-and-such a policy to be appropriate given the current outlook” doesn’t seem to me to qualify, especially if it goes on to stress the dependence of one on the other. The same goes for forecasts of future interest rates based on the latest projections for the economy. These are just an effort to explain more about the “reaction function”. On these grounds, and even with a fairly liberal interpretation of these requirements, it’s difficult to pick out many episodes that clearly count as pre-commitment. Perhaps the US Fed’s communications during and in the years after the financial crisis came the closest, though the shift to more Odyssean-like guidance was as much evolutionary as revolutionary. The FOMC had begun to signal the likelihood of a long period of low interest rates as early as December 2008, though to begin with, this was phrased simply as what would be justified by the economic outlook: "Weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time” The following summer, the statement still explained the outlook for policy as a normal and justifiable response to that for the economy, but for the first time introduced specific timelines: “The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions…are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013”.