samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
23  1.25-2.25 1.0 0.8 -1.0  2.0-3.0 2.1 1.9 2.3  2.0-3.0 2.0 1.9 2.2  1.5 1.5 4.4 2.2 -4.0 18.7 23.0  1.8 1.9 2.2 0.5 -4.0 19.2 23.2  1.8 1.8 2.5 0.6 -3.9 19.2 23.2  (annual change, percent) GDP Demanda interna Domestic demand (w/o inventory change) Gross fixed capital formation Total consumption Private consumption Goods and services exports Goods and services imports Current account (% of GDP) Gross national savings (% of GDP) Nominal GFCF (% of GDP) (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile. 17  Figure 18  Growth forecasts for selected economies  (annual change, percent)  8  2013-2019 average  2023 (f)  United States  Eurozone  2024 (f)  2025 (f)  7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0  China  Trading partners (*)  (f) Forecast. (*) For definition, see Glossary. Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 19  Commodity prices (1) (2)  (dollars/lb; dollars/barrel; index)  Copper  Oil (3)  4.5  Foods (FAO) 150  110  140  4.0  90  130  3.5  120  70 3.0  110 50  2.5 2.0  100 90  30 15  17  19  21 23(f) 25(f)  15  17  19  21 23(f) 25(f)  15  17  19  21 23(f) 25(f)  (f) Forecast. (1) Actual price/index refers to average of each year.

Going forward, tight external financial conditions linked to inflation control and low fiscal policy space are expected to impact the global economy negatively. In this sense, credit dynamics in the developed economies anticipate a weak performance of activity and investment. Global financial conditions remain tight, although the volatility associated with the recent banking tensions has decreased. Compared with the March Report, long-term interest rates have shown mixed movements, as they have risen in developed countries and declined in the emerging world. Currencies also performed unevenly, while stock markets have generally traded higher. Nevertheless, developments in the U.S. banking system continue to be a source of uncertainty. Market sentiment  3  remains fragile, with doubts about the extent and magnitude of the latent vulnerabilities in the financial sector (figure 13). In Chile, the financial market has aligned itself with a scenario where inflation will converge to the 3% target and the MPR will begin a downward process in the second half of the year. Thus, both expert surveys and financial prices point to inflation converging to 3% within the two-year monetary policy horizon (figure 14). All this has taken place while the economy has continued to adjust and local uncertainty has diminished (figure 15). Worth noting is the local forex market, whose proper functioning has allowed the Central Bank to dismantle the position of the non-delivery forwards (NDF) program and begin a program of rebuilding international reserves to strengthen our country's international liquidity position.
In other words, the single currency will expose the performance of Maltese businesses to a much more detailed scrutiny than they are accustomed to. From a broader macroeconomic perspective, it could also be argued that just as the euro will enable domestic operators to reap the full benefits of the Single Market, a higher level of integration with the EU could also make the Maltese economy more susceptible to developments abroad. This applies in particular to the financial sector. Thus, for example, while participation in European financial markets will present unprecedented opportunities for risk diversification, this also carries with it an increased danger of contagion should weaknesses develop in specific segments of the market. Furthermore, the TARGET payment system will facilitate the transmission of financial risks between different institutions operating within Member States, calling for extreme vigilance on the part of the Central Bank of Malta and the MFSA. While most sectors of the Maltese economy have been exposed to international competition for a number of years now, and while the financial sector incorporates adequate safeguard measures, there is clearly no room for complacency.

In fact, more than 75% of Malaysians find it difficult to raise even RM1,000 of immediate cash for emergencies. The ability to plan for the future and exercise self-control is a crucial life skill that needs to be cultivated and nurtured. In fact, a key predictor of success in life, is to be able to take the longer term perspective. Let’s move on to the issue of debt. Not all debt is bad as any economist would tell you, for borrowing to invest in productive assets or purposes will make one better off in the future. However, when the level of one’s borrowings is too high, it is a cause of concern. Let me illustrate, a significant proportion of youth today are surviving on high borrowings. The statistics are telling, 38% of youths take up personal loans, 47% have expensive credit card borrowings 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  and more than 3,400 borrowers between the ages of 20–30 years have sought out AKPK’s financial assistance in 2017, which would likely mean that the actual numbers facing financial difficulties are higher. To those of you today who are making early forays in the working world, it is our collective hope that you will take all active measures to not be part of those statistics. The future ahead of you is bright and the burden of being weighed down by excessive debt is a hindrance to your development and success.
Speech  Embargo 5 November 2020, 4.00 pm  Monetary policy implementation: How to steer interest rates in negative territory Virtual Money Market Event  Andréa M. Maechler and Thomas Moser∗ Member of the Governing Board / Alternate Member of the Governing Board Swiss National Bank Webcast, 5 November 2020 © Swiss National Bank, Zurich, 2020  ∗  The speakers would like to thank Peter Kuster and Tanja Zehnder for their valuable support and astute insights when drafting this speech. They also thank Roman Baumann and Mico Loretan for their comments as well as SNB Language Services for the translations of the text. Page 1/13  Ladies and gentlemen Good afternoon to all of you. On behalf of my colleague Thomas Moser and myself, I would like to welcome you warmly to the Swiss National Bank’s first-ever virtual Money Market Event. I am delighted that we are all able to interact in this way, even though the circumstances which necessitate the virtual format are anything but pleasant. The coronavirus crisis has turned the lives of billions of people upside down. Many have contracted or even died from the disease, and many others have lost their jobs as a result of it. Given all of this, the fact that the SNB has been forced to break with an almost twenty-year tradition and refrain from holding a physical Money Market Event is little more than a side-note. But it is regrettable all the same.

Durmuş Yılmaz: The role of competition policy and practices in attaining macroeconomic objectives Speech by Mr Durmus Yılmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, on the occasion of the 11th Anniversary of the Turkish Competition Authority, Ankara, 26 March 2008. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, First of all, I would like to greet you all. We have convened here on the occasion of celebrating the 11th Anniversary of a distinguished institution of Turkey. The Turkish Competition Authority has served its critical function in the development process of Turkey with the studies it has conducted. Let me take this opportunity at the very beginning of my speech to say that I believe the contributions of the Competition Authority to Turkey’s development will continue in an increased capacity in the upcoming periods. The main objective of public policies is to increase prosperity. Under the current circumstances, where economies are becoming increasingly interrelated, raising the level of prosperity of our country is contingent on increasing the share it gets from the global value added. In the post-2001 period, the Turkish economy grew by approximately 7 percent on a year-onyear basis and considerably increased its share in the world export market. During this period, the private sector was the engine for growth, with the greatest contribution from the industrial sector. In the 23-quarter periods of uninterrupted growth process, private sector investments increased by 150 percent in real terms.
The pre-crisis macroeconomic framework The breakdown in the ability of post-war macroeconomic models to accurately forecast the economic developments of the 1970s and the early 1980s opened up space for further advances in research. Advances that, by and large, provided the foundation of the pre-crisis consensus that inspired central banks in their monetary policy and governments in their stance on financial regulation and supervision. In a very stylised fashion, the range of views that formed this consensus shared three general features. Dominant was the emphasis placed on the interactions between policies and economic agents’ behaviour under rational expectations. Price and wage rigidities were often the only types of rigidity considered in the economy. Finally, financial markets and intermediaries – their regulation, their imperfections, and their supervision – played only a minor role, or were even entirely neglected in macroeconomic models. It would be a mistake to look back at this considerable body of theory and evidence only with today’s disenchanted, post-crisis eyes and to underestimate the profound changes that it produced in policymaking and institutions. In the 1970s governments attempted to maximise social welfare, in the form of low unemployment and inflation, by trying to exploit the short-run trade-off between the two. They engineered surprise booms “just once” before promising to revert to a policy of low inflation in future, especially when motivated by the electoral cycle.

Inclusion – expanding the reach of microfinance One of the key challenges for microfinance has been providing access to financial services where it is unavailable, but needed the most. Expanding the reach of financial services, and finding new ways to do so cost efficiently, lie at the very heart of efforts to increase inclusion. The right channels can also create emotional connections, not just geographical ones. Making it easier for borrowers to connect with financial institutions in ways that they feel comfortable with, can build affinities with financial institutions which in turn, encourages participation and timely repayments. Mobile banking is an excellent example. The portability, affordability and ubiquity of mobile gadgets effectively put a bank in everyone’s pockets today. The numbers are telling. Half the global population use mobile internet. We spend 4 hours on the phone and use 12 apps in a single day. The tremendous success of mobile banking in Africa has been hailed as a transformative platform for greater financial inclusion. If providers leverage digital platforms well, finance can literally be at the fingertips of the unbanked. Leveraging on digital platforms can also create a virtuous cycle. Over time, such platform providers will accumulate a wealth of data on customer preferences and behaviour. This can in turn drive drive analysis for new product offerings in the future. This is of course, highly contextual and an effective delivery strategy will likely differ across countries, communities and cultures.
As economies become more open, external developments inevitably affect price and output dynamics. The world may thus be more complex and, in some respects the conduct of monetary policy may be more challenging. The external factors that have in recent years had a dampening impact on domestic inflation could, at some point, fade or reverse. And the forces that have produced this constellation of capital flows and market conditions will evolve in ways we cannot anticipate. This obliges policymakers to devote more care to the process of understanding how change in the world affects the balance of opportunity, risk and uncertainty confronting policymakers. And it probably makes more compelling the importance of preserving confidence in our commitment to keep inflation low and stable, so that we have the flexibility to respond to this changing world. BIS Review 102/2006  3  Ultimately, as Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, noted recently, inflation is made at home and has to be contained at home. So integration does not, and should not, limit our ability to achieve our objectives. Rather, it forces us to think harder about how our economies are evolving and how developments in the rest of the world affect our markets. Thank you. 4  BIS Review 102/2006

Both its independence and ability to fulfill its mandate are guaranteed even in very adverse economic circumstances. While it should not lead to complacency and negligence, the existence of such buffers should alleviate any concerns about the potential risks that the expansion of the balance sheet may entail. Finally, huge Central Banks’ balance sheets may be seen as influencing the allocation of resources, or effecting implicit fiscal transfers, an issue of special sensitivity inside the euro area. To discuss this question, it is useful to refer to the famous Musgrave classification of public policies between three purposes: allocation, distribution and stabilization. There is no doubt that monetary policy is only and exclusively concerned with stabilization – and a very focused part of it : price stability. No monetary policy action should be taken for any other purpose. So to the extent that “unconventional” tools are implemented, there should be no ambiguity as to their close link with the Central Bank’s mandate of price stability. I believe that has been the case in all major countries and certainly so in the Eurozone. 4. How to mitigate unintended consequences? The truth is, however, that the real world does not always fit perfectly with the beauty of Musgrave’s classification. Some public policies may aim at several objectives. Others may inadvertently, have unintended side effects. All public policies with no exception, health, energy, infrastructures, unwillingly affect some citizens more than others. Those side effects should be minimized, but cannot always be totally avoided.
But at this stage, they do not support the view that we are or will be facing a large positive output gap. Overall, my reading of the available evidence so far is that we cannot say – with sufficiently high confidence – that we are facing a large and permanent loss of potential. Implications for monetary policy My primary objective today is to illustrate the difficulties and the risks policymakers must contend with when assessing supply and demand dynamics in real time, as well as the implications of these dynamics for the medium-term inflation outlook. I will nonetheless offer some reflections on how the previous analysis is influencing my thinking on monetary policy in an uncertain economic environment. There is a common argument today that monetary policy faces asymmetric risks. If policy overreacts to inflation, it can always undo the damage later. But if it underreacts, and inflation gets out of control, it will have to subject the economy to a harder and more costly tightening to rein inflation back in. There are limits to this argument. Monetary policy certainly needs to adjust – even if the output gap is negative – because the risk of second-round effects has become too great. However, I also believe that given the uncertainty we are facing, the calibration of our monetary policy stance must remain evidence-based and focused on the medium-term inflation outlook. [19] And after the progress we have already done in adjusting our policy stance, an aggressive tightening is not advisable, for two main reasons.

On the contrary, incorporating these principles is excellent  6  BIS Review 34//2005  preparation for adopting Basel II in the future. For example, supervisors might choose to move towards a more risk-based approach to supervision, developing skills in assessing the quality of a bank’s risk management and its ability to assess risk exposures. At the same time, banks could be reminded of their responsibility to develop their own processes for evaluating their capital needs and a strategy for maintaining their capital levels, consistent with the principles of Pillar 2. With regard to the principles of market discipline in Pillar 3, supervisors may wish to focus initially on ensuring a baseline level of disclosures across all banks. This might include discussing with banks, investors, and other users of financial information their information needs and the tools available so that supervisors can tailor requirements accordingly. In my view, these two preliminary stages provide an excellent preparation for the “final” stage of moving to Basel II. With a strong foundation in place, supervisors can then select the alternatives within Basel II that are most appropriate for their own circumstances. Conclusion To conclude, let me insist on the general principle on which I think supervision should be built, which I mentioned before. Supervision needs to consider a broader analysis of the vulnerabilities internal and external to the banking sector, including the necessary macroeconomic and institutional elements, and those relative to the stability of financial markets on which banks operate.
While recognizing that a desirable credit growth is necessary to encourage domestic production and diversification of the economic structure, the 2007 budget clearly sets out the need to curb credit expansion towards non-essential items which brings in demand pressures on prices. 2  BIS Review 7/2007  Support for financial system stability By introducing appropriate measures to encourage the financial community to proceed on a prudent lending path, the fiscal policy expects that the relevant authorities will maintain financial system stability. The 2007 budget also recognized the need to reduce high spreads and margins by banks which enhance transaction cost to the nation. In this regard, the way forward or the path ahead will be to support the potential growth sectors in the economy and reduce transaction cost of financial services. This is also aimed at increasing access to finance by all segments of the population. Amalgamation of state owned small development banks for greater efficiency Consolidation of the state owned, small scale banking institutions to ensure that access to finance by SMEs and micro enterprises will strengthen banking institutions. Accordingly, the 6 regional development banks, the SME Bank and the Lankaputhra Development Bank will be amalgamated with a solid capital base of over Rs. 5 bn. It is planned to increase the consolidated capital to Rs.10 bn. in the next 5 years, and rationalize the existing branch network of these banks for a better outreach.

Ranee Jayamaha: Budget 2007 – a path ahead Speech by Dr Ranee Jayamaha, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at a seminar organised by the Society for International Development, Colombo, 21 November 2006. *  *  *  Let me first elucidate the key themes underlying the budget and identify the strategies and future directions as announced in the budget. I will then try to outline the macro-economic policy framework highlighted in the budget focusing on the need for closer coordination. Underlying themes First, the govt. intends to achieve sustainable development, in particular, a growth around 8-10% in the medium term by focusing on productivity increases through enhancement of infrastructure investments, provision of support facilities, diversion of funds, where possible, from recurrent expenditure to capital expenditure and clearing any administrative impediments. Second, the 2007 budget attempts to reduce income disparities in different regions and provinces by improving island-wide infrastructure facilities which includes roads, rail roads, port services, airports, telecommunication, etc. and address poverty and unemployment issues. Third, the budget aims to improve the service economy to promote Sri Lanka as a trading and service hub in South Asia. Accordingly, sustainable development through investments in infrastructure (Rs 735 bn), the attainment of an equitable growth and improving the service economy are three key themes underlying the 2007 budget. The strategy and way forward or the path ahead The year 2007 budget sets out a 10-year horizon within which a medium term plan is presented for the period 2006 - 2009.
While financial consumers now have a greater array of choice, the challenge is in choosing the most appropriate financial product commensurate to their needs. Lessons learned from other markets showed that high-profile cases of mis-selling of investment-linked and pension products extols the importance of ensuring consumers are properly adviced on the key features, terms, conditions and suitability of a financial product before they enter into any financial contract. Assisting consumers to make wise financial choices As FAs, you have the responsibility to educate consumers on the importance of financial planning, such as saving for the first home or a child’s future education, or buying insurance protection to safeguard against unexpected losses. FAs can assist consumers in better understanding their current and future financial needs and circumstances. FAs can provide independent and impartial advice which is tailored to the consumers risk appetite and financial needs. Apart from educating their clients on what they should be investing in, FAs also play an important role in educating their clients on what they should not be investing in. As you are the industry’s front-liners and are actively meeting with potential customers on a daily basis, FAs can be relied on as a key source of information to prevent consumers from falling prey to financial scams.

But at least they provide a conditional assessment of how much we expect our rates to increase in order to bring down medium-term inflation to our 2% target. 11  See Brainard, W. C. “Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy”, American Economic Review 57 (2), pp. 411–425, 1967. 12  It will depend on the degree of persistence of the shocks that hit the economy, as shown by Ferrero, G., M. Pietrunti, and A. Tiseno. “Benefits of gradualism or costs of inaction? Monetary policy in times of uncertainty”, Banca d’Italia Temi di Discussione (Working Paper) No 1205, 2019. 13 See Söderström, U. "Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 104(1), pages 125-145, 2002. 6  Banco de España staff have conducted such an exercise using a suite of macroeconomic models. The exercise assumes that ECB rates increase linearly until March 2023, and then stay there for most of 2023 and 2024.14 The level of short-term interest rates in March 2023 consistent with a 2% projected inflation rate by end-2024 would be the terminal rate. The results show that, on the basis of current information, the median terminal rate value across models is at 2.25%-2.50%. Indeed this is estimated with significant uncertainty, as illustrated by the wide range of the estimated terminal rate across models15. Let me emphasise, in particular, that these models cannot capture the risk of expectations becoming unanchored or the severity of second-round effects and how they are affected by changes in the terminal rate.