samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The response so far includes an aggressive easing of monetary policy, ensuring adequate liquidity to the financial markets and the banking sector, helping banks to better manage the increased risk in lending by introducing a government-sponsored credit guarantee scheme for SMEs, and encouraging banks to act early in assisting customers with debt rescheduling or debt restructuring so as to ward off the pressure on asset quality and on the non-performing loans. These are the direction and the measures we have taken in our response to the crisis, and more will be done if needed to ensure a smooth adjustment in the economy and the financial sector. Judging from what we are seeing in terms of the recent broad global developments, I am confident that the combined effects of the fiscal stimulus by the Government and the financial measures that the Bank of Thailand has put in place, should provide the essential cushion for the economy to adjust to shock, and keep the impact of the global financial crisis on the economy manageable. As for the near-term outlook, latest monthly data still show signs of sharp corrections in the domestic economy. Exports and tourism fell by 11 percent and 23 percent, respectively, in February from a year earlier. Imports, on the other hand, fell by more than 40 percent, indicating a sharp deterioration in the domestic demand and supply conditions, and this is reflected by the continued declines in manufacturing production, capacity utilization, private consumption and investment.

Nevertheless, the latest forecasts provided by the ECB last Thursday continue to point to a gradual rise in inflation over the coming years: 0.1% in 2016, 1.3% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  II. This brings me to my second point: how effective are our non-standard measures? 1) Since the summer of 2014, we have implemented a series of monetary policy measures, dubbed “non-standard”, to complement cuts to key interest rates, which now stand at 0.00% for main refinancing operations and-0.40% for the deposit facility. These measures include: 2) Targeted longer-term refinancing operations, conditional on the provision of bank lending to the real economy. The new series of TLTROs that we decided to launch on 10 March - TLTRO 2 - will allow banks to borrow at highly favourable rates, depending on the amount of new credit they provide; 3) Purchases of private and public sector securities, to further ease monetary and financial conditions in the euro area. The Eurosystem buys asset-backed securities, covered bonds and investment grade bonds issued by euro area sovereigns, agencies and institutions. On 10 March we decided to expand this programme further by including corporate bonds among eligible assets, and increasing the amount of monthly purchases to EUR 80 billion from EUR 60 billion previously; 4)  Indications on the future path of key interest rates – or “forward guidance” – in order to influence agents’ expectations.
Luis M Linde: Monetary policy – current situation and challenges Closing remarks by Mr Luis M Linde, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the launch of the yearbook “Anuario del euro 2014”/Fundación de Estudios Financieros-Fundación ICO, Madrid, 28 January 2015. *  *  *  Firstly, I would like to thank Irene Garrido, chairwoman of ICO, Fernando Fernández and Juan Carlos Ureta for kindly inviting me to attend the launch of this new edition of the Anuario del Euro. I will begin by reviewing the current economic situation in the euro area and the measures adopted by the European Central Bank. Then I will go on to briefly comment on the leeway available to monetary policy in a context of very low inflation rates, and conclude by saying something about the different position in the monetary policy cycle of the main developed economies. The economic situation in the euro area and the ECB’s monetary policy The euro area’s economy is in a situation of weakness, with overall expected growth of 0.8% for 2014. After remaining fairly dynamic in first quarter of 2014, GDP grew only modestly in the following two quarters, and according to available forecasts, the path of recovery, both in the short and medium term, will be fragile, with disparities between countries. According to the European Central Bank’s projections, in line with the consensus, 2015 and 2016 will see growth of 1% and 1.5%, respectively.

The interest rate applicable to the long-term financing facility, which aims to stimulate lending, was reduced and an expanded asset purchase programme was announced. This programme includes, in addition to the purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds issued by the private sector, purchases of bonds issued by euro area central governments, agencies and European institutions. The size of this expanded programme is ambitious, with monthly purchases amounting to € billion. The purchases will commence in March and, in principle, it is intended that they will be carried out until September 2016, although the Governing Council of the ECB has given itself the option to continue to make purchases if the path of inflation is not consistent with its aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. The programme requires that, to be eligible for purchase, securities must be at least investment grade, or if not, that their issuers are under an EU-IMF financial assistance programme. These conditions are similar to those applied in the requirements for collateral to be eligible for monetary policy operations and those envisaged, in August 2012, in the announcement of the sovereign bond purchase programme known as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs). Of the additional asset purchases, 12% will be purchases of bonds issued by European institutions and the other 88% will be purchases of bonds issued by central governments and agencies of countries in proportion to their shares in the ECB’s capital key.
As we have already discussed, the first component of the insurance aspect of the framework is the reserves averaging mechanism itself, which permits banks, within reason and without penalty, to vary their reserves account balances day-to-day in the face of small and/or short-lived liquidity shocks – provided they hit their reserves target on average over the maintenance period. The second component is the OSFs which allow banks to cope with larger, expected (frictional) payments shocks day-by-day. A third component comes through longer-term OMOs to which we now turn. Longer-term Open Market Operations The most routine method for ensuring there is the correct amount of sterling in the system, consistent with reserves targets, is via short-term OMOs. Prior to the start of QE, the Bank carried out weekly short-term reverse repo operations (STRs) against a pool of “narrow” collateral comprising highly liquid sovereign or near-sovereign bonds from a small selection of countries. At that frequency, the scale of the operations could be judged fairly precisely so as to offset any autonomous factors which affected the net supply of sterling to the market. But relying solely on short term OMOs could have meant carrying out very large repo operations every week. To avoid that degree of churn, some longer term reverse repos (LTRs) were also used precrisis – at maturities from 3 to 12 months.

Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to point out that although the credit quality has improved, the level of nonperforming loans is considered as still high, and it should be lowered at a faster pace. This is a complex process that puts to test the adequacy of the legal framework, as well as the coordination and consistent implementation of institutional policies. These challenges were identified in the Annual Forum organised in June. Some of them acknowledge the need for improving the legal framework. Others point to unifying, in a single law, important stipulations about the execution of executive title, which are currently envisaged across several laws. We should be aware that a part of the difficulties arise from the dimensions of this problem; also, until a while ago, the justice system lacked the experience and specialised expertise on these matters and is still facing inadequate capacities to handle such practices. However, inadequate legal provisions and their inconsistent implementation in practice render the collateral execution process tedious, uncertain and costly for the parties involved. The coordination of institutional policies is another key process to respond to various problems in a timely and appropriate fashion. For example, the recent Action Plan for the resolution of non-performing loans represents a new level of communication and commitment of public institutions and the Bank of Albania to find a sustainable solution. Many of the issues concerning the banking industry, which the Bank of Albania considers as crucial, have been incorporated in this Plan.
Unemployment varied between 6 and 8 per cent around an average of 7 per cent during the ten years preceding the financial crisis.16 If the current rate of fall in unemployment continues, it will reach a normal level in the autumn of 2011. Although, the assessment in the Monetary Policy Report is that this will not take place so quickly, we should remember that both the Riksbank and others have underestimated the strengthening of the labour market in recent years (see Figure 20). Monetary policy must also take into account how the development of the economy affects wage formation. Monetary policy must resist the temptation to stimulate production and employment in the short term over and above the level that is compatible with a stable development of wages and inflation. A very rapid improvement of the labour market may lead to problems in the wage negotiations that will begin in the autumn. Wage formation has worked well in the last 15 years and this has helped to keep inflation at a low and stable level. It would be unfortunate if wage negotiations had to be conducted in a situation where there is overheating on the labour market. In the current situation, the shortage of labour is probably a better measure of how strained the labour market is than unemployment. The shortage of labour in the business sector was back to an almost normal level in the fourth quarter of 2010.

In today's environment, cultivating a lifelong learning experience is essential to personal and economic success. Lifelong learning involves more than just formal education and training. It encompasses learning throughout the life cycle, at different stages of life and in different learning environments. As individuals, attention to lifelong learning is essential to remain relevant in a highly competitive environment and to enhance our ability to function effectively and in a meaningful way as members of our community. With new knowledge comes innovation, agility and increased productivity that contributes to the overall performance and economic growth process. While it also enables us to adapt to the constantly changing environment, it also increases our capacity to cope with natural emergencies. The challenge then is to embrace the opportunities as they present themselves and to continuously develop new skills and competencies that will be needed to meet current and future demands. The opportunities for learning will be boundless. Technology has also significantly broadened the reach and means for learning, as well as increased learning efficiencies. As you step into this new and exciting world, these possibilities should be fully optimized. In concluding, allow me to offer my congratulations once again to the graduates of the class of 2006. You represent the promise of our nation's future. Indeed, nation building no longer belongs exclusively to the realm of the Government. As professionals, your advancements should not just be confined to those of immediate interest or relevance to you.
16 Sep 2022  Keynote speech at the Treasury Markets Summit 2022 Eddie Yue, Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority “New Impetus for Hong Kong” Distinguished guests, members, and friends of the Treasury Markets Association (TMA), ladies and gentlemen. Opening 1. It is an honour and a pleasure to be asked to give the keynote speech at this year’s Treasury Markets Summit. 2. As much as I wanted to be with you all in-person, I have to join this event virtually while travelling to international meetings. Travel has been rather difficult for the past two-anda-half years but now that most cities and countries have achieved high vaccination rates and COVID-related symptoms have generally become less severe, I am taking every opportunity to physically represent Hong Kong at key international meetings. There is really no substitute for face-to-face connection, and I do hope such gatherings are back to stay. This is a great time and a perfect opportunity for us to show the world that Hong Kong is back, stronger and better than ever. 3. In my remarks today, I wish to talk about Hong Kong’s progress as an international financial centre, and to highlight the rapid growth of Mainland China and the RMB. No appreciation of Hong Kong’s growth can be complete without acknowledging the rest of the nation’s progress: Looking at one without the other would be like admiring a sunrise without seeing the sky behind it. 4.

This is equivalent to over half of the global investment needed if global temperature increases are to be kept under 1.5 degree Celsius. 14. China alone will need over RMB100 trillion (or USD15 trillion equivalent) in green investment over the next three decades to achieve its declared goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 20602 . Hong Kong is well positioned to help achieve this important national objective as we have long been the gateway between Mainland China and the rest of the world. Last year, under the Hong Kong Government Green Bond Programme, we helped the Government issue its inaugural green bond denominated in RMB to an overwhelmingly positive market response. The Government plans to continue issuing green bonds regularly to build benchmark yield curves for the market to attract more issuers, including those from the Mainland, to use Hong Kong’s platform to meet their green financing needs. 15. The HKMA has been actively promoting green and sustainable finance, joining local and international regulators to ensure that the financial sector plays its part in contributing to global net-zero goals. We are working to strengthen the resilience of the banking system against climate risks and accelerate banks’ efforts to support the transition to a low-carbon economy. 16. We are also enhancing the ecosystem in other ways, including a particular focus on filling the capacity gaps in knowledge, talent and data. Closing 17. In closing, let me just note Hong Kong’s two biggest strengths as an international financial centre – its resilience and adaptability.
From an economic perspective it was also hard to find other factors that could have contributed to such a sharp slowdown: the world economy had continued to grow, and financial conditions had remained accommodative. Chart 10: Snow effects on GDP revisions Preliminary estimate  Latest estimate  2009 Q4  2010 Q1  2010 Q4  2013 Q1 -0.6  -0.4  -0.2  0.0  0.2  0.4  0.6  0.8  Percentage changes on a quarter earlier  At the same time, the labour market continued to perform robustly. Employment continued to rise, which – given its correlation with GDP, which if anything has become more contemporaneous in recent years – would  13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  13  suggest all else equal that GDP was also growing. Underlying regular pay growth continued to pick up in line with our forecasts. Given all this, it seemed to me and to the MPC that the most likely explanation for the apparent weak data in the run up to our May meeting was that it was a temporary, weather-related softening. And we continued to see the trade-off between slack and inflation as much diminished. In fact last month as part of our continuing efforts to make our thinking more transparent, we published our estimate of excess supply (or slack) in the economy for the first time.

Whatever uses other economies might have for them, exchange controls are out of the question for Hong Kong: the Basic Law, which sets out our basic principles of government, expressly prohibits them, and, even if it did not, we know that, at least for Hong Kong, any attempt to introduce them, and to turn inwards on ourselves, would spell the end of our prosperity. But free market principles cannot mean markets that are left defenceless against manipulation. One troubling aspect of the Asian crisis, and a sign of larger problems in the world financial system, has been the extreme volatility in markets created by the rapid flows of highly leveraged funds around the world. As markets in the region became more vulnerable, these flows increasingly took on a predatory character and became more and more subtle in their planning and sophistication. This August, as you know, the Hong Kong financial markets became the target of a well planned attack by international hedge funds. We took unconventional actions to fend off that attack and to fortify our financial system against future attacks. Not unexpectedly, these actions have been the cause of extensive controversy, and of a great deal of misunderstanding. Let me attempt to present the issue from Hong Kong’s perspective by outlining what happened in August and explaining why we took action. Oddly enough, Hong Kong became a target because of the transparency of its financial system: we were singled out for our efficiency and predictability rather than for any fundamental flaws.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  Chart 11:  Chart 12:  Household financial surplus(a)  Illustrative estimates of debt held by vulnerable UK households(a)(b)  UK  USA  Euro Area  Per cent 8 6 4  Per cent of unsecured debt 40  Per cent of secured debt 40 NMG unsecured 35 (LHS)  35 BHPS unsecured (LHS)  30  30  25  25  2 + 0 2  00  02  04  06  08  20 15  15  10  4  5  6  0  10  20 NMG secured (RHS)  10 BHPS secured (RHS)  5 0  92  94  96  98  00  02  04  06  08  10  Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ECB and Bank calculations. Sources: British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), NMG Consulting survey and Bank calculations. (a) Per cent of GDP. (a) Vulnerable mortgagors are those with housing equity below 5%, or housing equity below 25% and at least one characteristic suggesting debt-repayment difficulties. Vulnerable unsecured debtors are those with less than 25% housing equity (including renters) and at least one characteristic suggesting debtrepayment difficulties. (b) Based on historical BHPS data and more timely information from the annual NMG survey. Differences in survey questions and sample size mean the estimates from the two surveys are not directly comparable.

Jean-Pierre Roth: The euro – a stabilising factor in the international currency system Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Fondation Jean Monnet pour l'Europe, Lausanne, 21 September 2007. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The euro is undoubtedly a success story. It has contributed to stabilising the international currency system. In Europe, the former monetary disorder has been replaced by a new monetary order. The European payment system has become more transparent and price stability is guaranteed. Switzerland, too, is benefiting from European currency stability. The Swiss franc is taking advantage of a monetary environment that is considerably calmer than previously. The euro and the franc are coexisting very successfully. Nevertheless, it would be wrong to claim that all the effects of European currency integration have already worked their way through to the real economy. In spurring on competition and promoting transparency, the euro is having an integrating effect. However, there are still considerable obstacles standing in the way of this integration process. BIS Review 103/2007  1
Speeches  Published Date: 19 July 2022  Remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director, MAS at the MAS Annual Report 2021/2022 Media Conference on 19 July 2022 Good morning and thank you for joining us in person for the release of the MAS Annual Report. This year, I will focus my remarks on inflation. It is the key macroeconomic challenge facing the global economy, affecting countries ranging from the United States to Sri Lanka, as well as Singapore. The IMF’s latest projection for global inflation in 2022 is 7.4%. This would be the fastest rate of inflation in the last 25 years. Inflation is a pervasive economic ill – it affects everyone. The lower-income groups are particularly vulnerable. Inflation is uppermost in the minds of many Singaporeans. I will cover four themes on inflation, both globally and in Singapore. Inflation is being driven by both supply and demand factors Taming inflation will mean a slowdown in economic growth A multi-pronged approach to deal with inflation Managing debt amid inflation and rising interest rates I will then briefly touch on three issues which MAS will cover in depth in the coming weeks and months: Developments in the crypto ecosystem Singapore’s financial sector performance and strategies Positioning the financial sector for sustainability  Before I close, I will briefly report MAS’ financial performance. Let me begin with inflation. It is important to understand the nature of the inflation problem the world is dealing with.

A forecast rate of inflation above the target normally leads to interest rate increases, just as an expected rate below the target prompts the Riksbank to lower the repo rate. Inflation is assessed on a continuous basis. New information—fresh economic statistics, for instance, or signs of a change in some economic relationships—leads the Riksbank to review its current forecast and make the necessary changes. If a new forecast indicates that future inflation will deviate from the target, then the Riksbank has to adjust the repo rate in accordance with the new assessment. However, assessments of future inflation—like any other forecast—are bound to include an element of uncertainty. Moreover, observers are liable to differ on which future path is most probable. So it is hardly surprising—rather a healthy sign—that our inflation assessments and monetary policy are sometimes a subject of lively debate. But while inflation assessments may vary, in Swedish society today there is broad support for focusing monetary policy on price stability. BIS Review 66/1998  -22. Recent years The Swedish economy, as we all know, went through a profound crisis in the early 1990s. This is not an occasion for discussing the causes of the crisis in depth. It will suffice to note that the origins lay in structural weaknesses in Sweden’s economy. But the crisis also had to do with shortcomings in stabilisation policy in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Since production stopped falling and growth restarted in the course of 1993, economic developments in Sweden have exceeded expectations in several respects.