samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Uncertainty is part of the cause as well: the exact date of the euro adoption is not known and there is no time to look deeper into the matter against the background of everyday life. Nevertheless, Estonians are one of the most pro-EU nations in the whole Union. More than 70 per cent of us hold positive or very positive views on the EU. However, the origins of euro scepticism and EU optimism are the same. The European Union and EU membership represent common European values, economic prosperity and security for our citizens. Our own currency stands for the same values: credibility, prosperity and economic security. The Estonian kroon represents these values for a very specific reason. Namely, our currency has been pegged to the euro for already 15 years. I cannot resist joking that from the monetary policy perspective we are one of the oldest members of the euro area. A whole generation of Estonians has grown up without having to ask what the interest rate of Eesti Pank is. Instead, they know that the value of the kroon will not change and interest rate changes come from Europe. Most probably, what matters for Estonians is that while being part of Europe we still wish to retain something our own. This is not the most convenient situation for Eesti Pank. On one hand, we should be proud of the trust we have earned at home. On the other hand, we know that joining the euro area is beneficial and necessary for the whole country.

Not only because of the obligation arising from the Treaty of the European Union. Rather because euro area membership provides ultimate monetary and economic security for our nation that is already used to the “de facto membership”. Competitiveness in today’s world Ladies and Gentlemen let me now turn to the topic of today’s conference: competitiveness in today’s world. I would like to look at it from the perspective of a really small country. As we all know, globalization has changed the understanding of success factors for countries. Oldstyle economic policies and market protection are of no use any more, since today whole factories and industries are moved within a short time. How can a small country survive in this world at all? It is often said that real wages should be kept artificially low to attract investment and provide high returns on capital. I do not think this is the right way for a small country. We could never compete with major economies when it comes to mass production. Instead, we should make use of the fact that globalization creates also a huge spectrum of niche markets. Mass production cannot meet countless individual needs, as people all over the world demand more and more personalised products and services. This is the key to success for smaller economies. BIS Review 63/2007  1  The point of departure for a society to remain competitive is to get over the fear of globalization. The new world is after all an opportunity, not a cause for sorrow.
If Brexit progresses smoothly, we expect that the current heightened uncertainties facing companies and households will fade gradually, business investment will rebound, the housing market to rally, and consumption to grow broadly in line with households’ real incomes. This would accelerate economic growth, strengthen domestic inflationary pressures, and require limited and gradual increases in interest rates in order to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target. It is unsurprising that the path of interest rates consistent with achieving the inflation target in this scenario differs from current market pricing of a lower expected path for Bank Rate given that the market places significant weights on both the probability of No Deal and on cuts in Bank Rate in that event. As the perceived probability of a No Deal has picked up, the levels of Bank Rate, sterling and other UK asset prices in our projections have therefore become increasingly inconsistent with the smooth Brexit assumption in the MPC’s projection. That doesn’t mean that the market is wrong or that the MPC is right about the likely outcome of the negotiations. It just highlights the extent to which the levels of interest rates, sterling and other asset prices might increase if a deal were reached. The MPC will explore how to best illustrate these sensitivities as we update our projections for the August Inflation Report. 16  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  16  We will also make a detailed assessment of the potential implications of the global sea change currently underway.

The additional tariffs threatened by the US on China and on auto imports more generally would raise average US tariffs to rates not seen in half a century (Table 2). If implemented, they could reduce global GDP by an additional 0.6% through direct trade channels alone (Table 1). 4 5  US tariffs on steel and aluminium and the reciprocated 25% tariff on $ of US imports from China. The hit to global GDP may be cushioned somewhat by trade diversion, which will likely benefit non-China Asian EMEs. 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  7  Table 1: Direct effects of tariff increases small but indirect effects potentially far greater Change in level of GDP (%) US  China  Euro area  UK  World (PPP-weighted)  Measures taken in previous years  -0.4  -0.3  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  Additional US-China tariffs implemented in May and June 2019  -0.5  -0.4  -0.2  -0.1  -0.2  Additional marginal reduction in GDP in the event that… US-China raise tariffs on all imports to 25%  -0.5  -0.5  -0.1  -0.1  -0.2  US imposes 25% tariffs on all auto imports and all countries reciprocate  -1.2  -0.3  -0.3  -0.2  -0.4  -2.1  -1.2  -0.6  -0.4  -0.8  Total if all measures are implemented  Sources: Bank calculations. Notes: The table shows the peak impact over a three-year period.
In 2012, spreads vis-à-vis German ten-year government bonds reached 500 basis points in Italy and 600 basis points in Spain, with even wider spreads in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The fifth stage of the crisis then followed: the breakdown in monetary policy transmission across the euro area. Interest rates faced by firms and households in vulnerable countries became 2/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  increasingly divorced from short-term central bank rates. As those economies represented a third of euro area GDP, this posed a profound threat to price stability. The ECB responded with its announcement of Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs), which restored confidence in sovereign bond markets, helped to repair the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and broke the downward spiral. With less of a direct market impact, but fundamental in confirming to the world the strength of our leaders’ commitment to the euro, was the earlier decision to create the banking union and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The long trip back to growth had begun. The unfolding of the euro area crisis yielded lessons for the financial sector, for individual countries and for the union as a whole. But the unifying theme was the inability of each of these actors to effectively absorb shocks. In some cases, because of their weaknesses, they even amplified those shocks. Indeed, banks fuelled the build-up of imbalances and then exacerbated the resulting crash. Countries had too low growth potential, limited flexibility to bounce back from the crisis and too little fiscal space to stabilise their economies.

Financial independence is so important that it is explicitly listed in Article 282(3) of the Treaty, which provides that the ECB is independent with regard to the management of its finances, meaning budgetary autonomy and ensuring that the ECB has sufficient capital, staff and income to perform independently the tasks conferred on it by the Treaty and the Statute of the ESCB. [14]  http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2017/html/sp170330.en.html[03.04.2017 15:53:14]  Central bank independence revisited  In addition, Article 14.4 of the Statute of the ESCB provides the Governing Council with a veto power to object to national functions/actions of NCBs that interfere with the objectives and tasks of the ESCB, thus further safeguarding, among other things, central bank financial independence. The NCBs cannot assume tasks that would endanger their ability, from a financial perspective, to carry out ESCB-related tasks. Regarding the nature and the scope of the independence granted to the ECB, it is worth emphasising the CJEU’s understanding that the broad concept of independence that the ECB enjoys, and which Article 130 of the Treaty is intended to protect its monetary function. Some scholars and one national court[15] have been even stricter in their interpretation, arguing that the independence of central banks is an exception to the principle of democratic legitimacy.
That households and firms are rational means that there are no systematic errors in their expectations. If these assumptions are a reasonable description of how the economy functions, there is likely to be less reason for the central bank to attach any great importance to debt levels and asset prices in terms of economic stability. In that case, debt levels and asset prices mirror the same behaviours that are described in theories and models based on the real economy and do not therefore contain any new information. But there are many studies of, and observations from, the financial markets that could suggest that the forecasts do not capture the behaviours that can lead to a build-up of the kind of imbalances that I have discussed. Here, I shall confine myself to a few examples. Studies have shown that asset prices and credit expansion give rise to each other and therefore play an independent role for the course of events in the cycles. Bernanke, Gertler & Gilchrist, for example, have shown with their financial accelerator theory that rising asset prices make it cheaper to borrow and at the same time increase the supply of credit. Lower financing costs boost investment and equity prices, which reduce the financing cost, and so on. They show also that the effect of the financial accelerator is asymmetric, having greater significance during an economic decline than during an upswing. It affects those credit cycles that are usually described by roughly the following course of events.

Such initiatives have prompted the IMF to conclude that ‘the Bank is one of the leaders worldwide in shaping reforms in this area’. Finally, efficient resilience is why the Bank of England, working with the Financial Conduct Authority, has been at the forefront of efforts to increase individual accountability in financial services. While the UK’s action plan to improve conduct includes stronger deterrents and reduced opportunities for bad behaviour, we recognise that ex post penalties are only part of the solution. 8  The FPC judges the appropriate Tier 1 capital requirement for the UK banking system, in aggregate, to be 13.5% of risk-weighted assets (RWAs), as currently measured. This compares with around 10.5% including capital conservation and SIFI surcharge buffers based on international standards. The Bank has also introduced a leverage ratio requirement in advance of international requirements that currently amounts to, in aggregate, 3.3%. If resolution arrangements were not in place, the FPC is likely to have judged that the appropriate baseline Tier 1 capital requirement for the UK banking system would be closer to 20% of RWAs than the current 13.5%. 9 Membership of the SMF has risen from 70 in 2008 to 190 today. Our Discount Window is open daily for those firms requiring a bespoke facility with lagged disclosure. We hold monthly repo auctions to provide predictable and regular access to reserves in exchange for a very broad range of collateral, including raw loans.
You saw from the slides I showed earlier that the general public on the whole has relatively good access to places where they can made cash withdrawals and the retail trade has good access to service points where they can leave their daily takings, but is it at the same time a well-known fact that several of the banks have cut back on their manual cash handling. The consequence is that a number of households, perhaps those in sparsely-populated areas in particular, have had a long way to travel to the nearest bank that handles cash. This is a problem that may increase with regard to the banknote and coin changeover. The Riksbank is therefore conducting a regular dialogue with the banks on how the changeover should be managed. The banks have said that they will help their customers to the extent that they need it and that they will contribute to a smooth changeover. We are assuming that the banks will take this responsibility, but we are at the same time monitoring developments, for instance, by making a survey of access to cash services in different parts of the country. The continued dialogue with the banks will show whether the Riksbank needs to take any further measures. Starting from 2015, we will carry out extensive information campaigns aimed at both market participants and the general public. The effects of more electronic payments The challenges regarding electronic payments are essentially very different.

This, as I see  2  Cards can be used when paying at a distance, too, for instance for online purchases. However, the Riksbank has no confirmed statistics on these payments. 3  Examples of mobile payment services include Swish, WyWallet and SEQR. 4  Examples of payments via intermediary include PayPal, Klarna (payment by invoice) and direct payments that link you up directly with your online bank. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  it, broad acceptance of new technology solutions is a very interesting observation to which I will return shortly. The fact that so many people are using cards and other electronic payments is a form of proof that these services are widely available, not just for households but also for retailers and companies. There are more than 20 million cards in Sweden and just over two hundred thousand card terminals. Recently mobile card terminals and opportunities to accept card payments by mobile phone have also arisen. This chart, which shows how often households say they have not been able to pay by card or cash, illustrates the high level of acceptance among payees. A large majority say that they are unable to pay by either card or cash less than once a month. Close to ATMs and good Internet connections Cash should not only be possible to use in shops. Households also need to be able to withdraw cash and the retailer has to be able to deposit his daily takings.
More recently, we have engaged industry players more directly to co-create rules and guidance – in other words, to jointly come up with proposals. •  An example is the Private Banking Industry Code – developed by industry practitioners but in close consultation with MAS. •  Such co-creation is particularly relevant for developing rules or guidance on new technologies whose benefits and risks are not fully known and where a more flexible approach may be desired. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  A further possibility in co-creation might be MAS and the industry working together to develop common technology infrastructure that meets regulatory requirements. The aim is to clarify and address issues and uncertainties upfront during the course of development. MAS is not seeking a zero-risk regime. And we understand that failure is part of the learning process. •  If things do go wrong with an innovative product or service, and there will no doubt be some failures, the FI will need to review its implementation and draw lessons. •  MAS will examine the facts to assess if there is any systemic or deeper issue that needs to be addressed, and determine if any action needs to be taken. Development initiatives for a smart financial centre Besides providing a conducive regulatory environment, MAS will work closely with the industry to chart strategies for a Smart Financial Centre.

But the bigger impact on financial services, and the broader economy, is likely to come from the technology behind Bitcoins – namely the block-chain or, more generally, the distributed ledger system. •  A block chain is essentially a decentralised ownership record. •  It allows a document or asset to be codified into a digital record that is irrevocable once it has been committed into the system. •  The digital record can be accessed and verified by other parties in the system without going through a central authority. •  The potential benefits of such a distributed ledger system include: –  faster and more efficient processing;  –  lower cost of operation; and  –  greater resilience against system failure. There are many potential applications of distributed ledger systems in the financial sector: •  Ripple in the US offers a solution, based on distributed ledgers, for real-time gross settlement, currency exchange, and remittance. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  •  The same solution could potentially allow regulators to plug into the network to conduct surveillance of risks and to track transactions to detect money laundering or terrorist financing. In fact - and this would be of interest to the lawyers gathered here - distributed ledger systems could potentially be applied in any area which involves contracts or transactions that currently rely on trusted third parties for verification.
The decline in global energy and food prices should weigh on the costs of intermediate and final consumer goods. The strengthening Singapore Dollar will further dampen imported inflation. 2/16  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Two, the domestic labour market is showing early signs of cooling off. A recovery in the non-resident workforce is helping to alleviate labour shortages in sectors such as health & social services and transport & storage. Labour demand is easing, especially in sectors most exposed to slower global demand such as manufacturing and ICT services. Easing in labour market tightness should mitigate wage pressures. Three, the pace of cost pass-through into prices should moderate as the strength of domestic demand wanes. Core inflation is expected to end the year significantly lower, at 2.5 – 3.0% yearon-year. In MAS' April Monetary Policy Statement, we had said that core inflation would end the year at around 2.5% year-on-year. We have applied a small range above this, to reflect the potential impact of stronger than expected outturns in some travel-related CPI components, such as airfares and holiday expenses. Excluding the impact of the GST hike, year-end core inflation would be closer to 2%. For the year as a whole, core inflation is forecast at 3.5 – 4.5% but this reflects mostly higher inflation in the first half that is behind us. MAS is lowering the forecast range for CPI-All Items inflation to 4.5 – 5.5% for 2023, down from 5.5 – 6.5% previously.

Central banks whose currencies appreciated, like the Swiss National Bank (SNB), recorded negative currency translation effects. Central banks with large investment portfolios, like the SNB, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and Norges Bank, were negatively impacted by the sell-off in global bond and equity markets. Notwithstanding the financial loss, MAS' OFR position remains strong and we transferred $ billion of excess OFR to the Government in this financial year. MAS transfers OFR above what it needs to conduct monetary policy and support financial stability, to the Government for longer-term management by GIC. In FY22/23, MAS transferred a total of $ billion of OFR to the Government. Even after the transfer, the OFR stood at $ billion (or $ billion) as at end May 2023. This is over two-thirds of GDP, much higher than in almost any other country. How does the loss recorded by MAS affect the Government Budget? First, MAS will not accrue a contribution to the Government's Consolidated Fund in FY22/23 but will make a contribution of $ billion based on past profits. Like other statutory boards, MAS makes a contribution to the Consolidated Fund based on 17% of the net profit for the year, after offsetting cumulative losses from previous financial years. In the case of MAS, as our net profits vary considerably from year to year, our annual contributions to the Consolidated Fund are paid in equal proportions over three years, so as to smoothen Government's revenue volatility.
[2] Whilst waters were calmer at that time, we could see waves on the horizon. We warned that future cyclical and structural changes could materially threaten profitability and sustainability of certain business models. In the months since we sent that letter, events have unfolded – and indeed a war broke out – that now make this is all feel more present and real. Geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty is translating into market volatility. Meanwhile, digitalisation continues at pace, as new technologies, products and partners enter the financial services ecosystem. And the risks from climate change loom and threaten to change the very nature of the environment banks operate in. These are all key features of a new world facing investment banks. Like anyone preparing for an open water swim, if investment banks are to perform in these uncharted waters, they will need to challenge themselves on their true capabilities, be forward-  Page 3  looking, anticipate changing conditions, and prepare to encounter unexpected currents along the way. This will be a real test of their true mettle. So what does this mean in practice? Financial Resilience Investment banks’ business models have changed significantly since the Global Financial Crisis. Legacy balance sheets have mostly been cleaned up. Firms no longer look to boost returns from proprietary trading. Client-driven strategies have become the norm.

In the context of long-term interest rate developments, there are some good arguments which say that, in the future, the average interest rate level could be lower than in the past. But that does not mean we should assume that the current level of interest rates represents the new equilibrium. Even assuming that the average interest rate level will decline, the prevailing level of interest rates in recent years has been exceptional. For example, long-term rates are currently just under 300 basis points lower than the average in the ten years before the onset of the financial crisis. Moreover, experience shows that, depending on economic developments, interest rates can increase very rapidly and unexpectedly, overshooting longterm equilibrium values. A broad-based reduction in the imputed rate or a further increase in interest rate risk exposures across the board could also lead to a renewed acceleration of momentum on the mortgage and real estate markets. The SNB will continue to monitor developments closely, and will regularly reassess the need for an adjustment of the countercyclical capital buffer. Announcement of issuance date for 20-franc note  I would like to close with a few remarks about the new banknote series. On 12 April 2016, the SNB successfully released the new 50-franc note. The new note has since proved its worth and its reception among the public and experts alike has been broadly positive.