samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Unit labour cost, 1990-2001 Annual percentage change  12  12 Sweden  10  10  Euro area  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2 1990  1991  1992  1993  1994  1995  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  Source: OECD  8  BIS Review 40/2002  5. The Beveridge Curve, 1980-2002 (January-May)  Unfilled job vacancies/labour force 1,4 1980 1,2 1987 2002 (jan-may)  1,0 1990  2000 0,8 1984 0,6  2001  1999 1998 1997  0,4  1991 1995-1996  0,2  1994  1992 1993  0,0 0,0  2,0  4,0  6,0  8,0  10,0  12,0  14,0  Total unemployment  Source: Statistics Sweden (Labour Force Surveys) and Labour Market Board  6.

Mr. Carse gives a banking supervisor’s perspective on control issues in financial institutions Speech by the Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Mr. David Carse, at the BanComp ’98 conference in Hong Kong on 25/5/98. I am pleased to be here this morning to speak to you at the start of this conference on internal controls and anti-money laundering. The advertised title of my speech is “Understanding the role and needs of the regulator in all authorised financial institutions”. This is a very broad subject and I have therefore narrowed it down to focus on the banking supervisor’s perspective on control issues in financial institutions. I am sure there are many compliance and audit professionals in the audience today, so I trust I should not have too hard a hard job persuading you that good internal controls are not only important, but crucial to the success of financial institutions. Just consider, for example, what poor internal controls did for BCCI, Daiwa Bank and Barings. So what advice can I offer you today to help you ensure that your institution will not meet the same fate? Well, what I will do is to share with you my thoughts on the key elements of a financial institution’s control systems, and highlight some of the areas where other institutions have gone horribly wrong. I will also talk about one of the key areas of a financial institution’s controls its controls against being used for money laundering.
Innovation has enabled risk to be dispersed more widely, including outside the banking sector. And capital markets are deeper. Nevertheless, it is a potential concern that, looking forward, financial markets may not be pricing for – which means that investors may not be insuring themselves against – the range of uncertainties that preoccupy the official sector. Maybe the official sector is wrong. Or may be there is an underestimation of risks in the market, perhaps associated with the widely discussed Search for Yield, and possibly also with overconfidence in the capacity of monetary authorities or liquid capital markets to smooth out all shocks. This poses three questions. Whether the risks will crystallise. Whether, if they were to, any such crystallisation would be orderly or disorderly in financial markets. And whether if asset markets were disorderly, that would feed back into the financial system in ways that both seriously amplified the adjustment and created serious threats to systemic stability. I fear that the answers are unknowable. But the task for central banks is nevertheless clear enough. Working with our partners in regulatory organisations and in other central banks, we must seek to understand today’s global banking system and capital markets well enough to tell the difference, if and when called upon to do so, between a problem requiring solely a macroeconomic policy response and a more complex financial stability problem.

These forecasts are, of course, uncertain and developments in recent years in particular have shown that events occur from time to time that are difficult to predict. It is therefore necessary to assume that inflation will during certain periods deviate from the target and sometimes deviate substantially. The important thing in the long term is not the temporary fluctuations in inflation, but that expectations are anchored around the inflation target. The inflation target can then fulfil its important function as nominal target when prices and wages are set and investment decisions are made. And in this respect we appear to have succeeded well (Figure 7). Let me in this context also briefly mention how we make our forecasts. Previously we made forecasts on the basis that the repo rate - our policy rate - would remain constant during the forecast period. If inflation was expected to be lower than two per cent, this was a signal that the interest rate needed to be cut, and if it was expected to be higher, the rate needed to be raised. However, the assumption that the repo rate would remain entirely unchanged over a long period of time is fairly unrealistic. Many times – for instance when everyone is expecting a long period of interest rate increases or interest rate cuts – this assumption of a constant repo rate makes it difficult for us to make reasonable forecasts. Now our forecasts are instead based on an assumption that the repo rate will develop in line with market expectations.
Inevitably, payment networks could become more interconnected and a single and large payment network could emerge. It then becomes essential to be in a position to manage the risks that may emanate from places beyond national boundaries. There has to be then a high level of preparedness against any disruption in the flow of information, funds and securities becomes vital. Ladies and Gentlemen, The policy response How have these developments changed the way Bank Negara Malaysia operates? In Malaysia , efforts are currently being taken on several fronts to meet the challenges arising from these trends. These range from structural enhancements to the macro surveillance systems, to strengthening of the robustness and capacity of financial players, in addition to promoting greater understanding of the intricacies of the interconnectivity, and the nature and speed of contagion risks within the overall system. On the regulatory front, closer regulatory oversight is particularly important in ensuring the strength of the risk management framework of large and complex financial institutions that are active in crossborder transactions. Towards this end, Bank Negara Malaysia is enhancing its prudential framework for the management of operational risks among such financial institutions, with the introduction of  BIS Review 32/2006  1  sound practices. The Bank's prudential framework has also been refined and enhanced to ensure that financial institutions address the risk management implications of new financial products, including credit derivatives, credit default swaps, credit linked notes and collateralised debt obligations.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Monetary and financial policies in the Asian network economy Introductory remarks by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Tun Ismail Ali Chair Public Lecture by Datuk Seri Panglima Andrew Sheng on “Monetary and Financial Policies in the Asian Network Economy”, Kuala Lumpur, 18 April 2006. *  *  *  Introduction Let me first of all welcome you to the Tun Ismail Ali Public Lecture for 2006. This Public Lecture is part of a series of events organised in conjunction with the Tun Ismail Ali Chair in Monetary and Financial Economics at the University of Malaya. The Chair was established by Bank Negara Malaysia in August 2000 to commemorate the contributions of the late Tun Ismail Mohamed Ali, the first Malaysian Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia . It is our hope that this Chair would contribute to the advancement of new ideas and knowledge in the area of monetary and financial economics. Today, we are indeed honoured to have Datuk Seri Panglima Andrew Sheng, holder of the Tun Ismail Ali Chair for 2006, to speak to us on "Monetary and Financial Policies in the Asian Network Economy". This occasion is particularly meaningful because Andrew was with Bank Negara Malaysia for many years, from 1976 € 89, and during that period, he had worked closely with the late Tun Ismail Ali.
The latest biannual survey conducted by Bpifrance shows that demand remains the main obstacle to investment for French small business ownersiv. This diagnosis is confirmed at the macro level by one of our staff’s recent working papers, which investigated a panel of 22 advanced economies: expected demand appears as the main determinant of the slowdown in business investment (negative contribution of more than 80%).v The second key economic lever of investment is confidence, or to put it another way, the level of uncertainty (17%).vi If the environment is blurred, complex or unstable – especially as regards rules and norms –, businesses opt for a “wait-and-see” behaviour and postpone their investment decisions. So, the simplification and stabilisation of rules is an often underestimated albeit key trigger of business investment. Economic levers are of the essence, but financial ones also play a role. Currently, the cost of debt financing is low in the euro area, there is no evidence of credit rationing, and yet business investment is not completely responding. So what’s wrong? There are two intertwined features that explain this puzzle. First, as Europe’s economy is “at the technological frontier”, businesses need to innovate more, which means they need to diversify their sources of financing: to be able to take more risks, they need less internal or debt financing and more equity financing. Yet, (slide 8) and this is the second key feature of today’s environment, the cost of equity (CoE) has remained high, despite the sharp fall in interest rates over the last two decades.

Note: Finland, France and Italy are not included in the panel. ix Ibid. ii
Central Bank Assets (LHS) and Liabilities (RHS) United Kingdom  BIS Review 111/2010  37  Chart 6 Deviation of Price Level from Deterministic Target Path  38  BIS Review 111/2010  Chart 7a Simulation of a “Leaning Against The Wind” Policy 2003–6: US Policy rate  Real credit growth (ann %) 15  10 8  10  6 5 4 0  2 0  -5  -2 -10 -4 -6 2001  2004  2007  2010  2001  Real house price growth (ann %)  2004  2007  -15 2010  GDP growth (ann %) 5  10  4 3  5  2 1  0  0 -1  -5  -2 -3  -10  -4 -15 2001  2004  BIS Review 111/2010  2007  2010  2001  2004  2007  -5 2010  39  Chart 7b Simulation of a “Leaning Against The Wind” Policy 2003–6: UK  Policy rate  Real credit growth (ann %) 14  10  12  8  10 6  8 6  4  4 2  2 0  0  -2 -2  2001  2004  2007  -4 2010  -4 2001  Real house price growth (ann %)  2001  2004  40  2007  2004  2007  -6 2010  GDP growth (ann %) 30  6  20  4  10  2  0  0  -10  -2  -20  -4  -30  -6  -40 2010  2001  2004  2007  BIS Review 111/2010  -8 2010  Chart 8  BIS Review 111/2010  41  Chart 9  42  BIS Review 111/2010  Bibliography Adrian, Tobias, and Hyun S. Shin (2008).

In addition, the SNB recruits and employs many economists itself. Maintaining close ties with the universities is a necessary prerequisite for SNB economists to remain on top of the latest economic knowledge and for the SNB to be an attractive employer. However, the SNB also considers itself a provider of research and teaching services. To the extent possible, it publishes its own research results and also makes available other economic expertise, e.g. in the area of statistics. An academic education is a privilege for which society justifiably expects something in return. For graduates, this presupposes an especially large commitment to making a contribution to Switzerland’s prosperity and success. The SNB also would like universities to make concrete and useful suggestions for Swiss economic policy, e.g. with regard to the pension system and healthcare. This is because convincing solutions in these areas make it possible for monetary policy to continue to take full effect. In addition to the economic function, the strong education system also has an eminent civic one, namely by providing the glue that holds the whole society together. First, a good allround education enables voters to form their own opinions about complex substantive issues. This is essential in order for the advantages of direct democracy to be fully realised. Second, an education system structured in a way to maximise labour market access for as many people as possible is a significant factor for integration. And third, owing to its high quality and flexibility, it prevents class mentality and elitism.
The New York Fed’s quarterly measures of household credit conditions signal some recent improvement, though there clearly remain pockets of financial stress among families here. At year-end, for those people with a credit report, average debt per person in Staten Island ticked up, rising to about $ after trending down for a number of years. A similar uptick in debt was observed nationwide, potentially signaling that households are now somewhat more willing to take on debt. Delinquency rates, however, are still fairly high: 9.7 percent of all debt in the county is seriously delinquent, well above the national rate. On a more positive note, delinquency rates on Staten Island are declining and are at their lowest level in 3½ years. Mortgage delinquency rates, though still above the national rate, are also at a 3½-year low. Recently, of course, Staten Island’s greatest challenge has been the massive disruption and destruction caused by Superstorm Sandy. While many parts of the New York City metropolitan region were hard-hit by the storm, the devastation was particularly severe here on Staten Island. And this is something that has had large consequences for some of my colleagues at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Nearly 150 of our employees call Staten Island their home. While many, thankfully, were spared the full brunt of the storm, I know quite a few people whose homes were destroyed or severely damaged and others who lost many of their belongings.

Of course, any subsequent bad news could lead me to favor dialing them back up again. As Chairman Bernanke said in his press conference following the March FOMC meeting “when we see that the…situation has changed in a meaningful way, then we may well adjust the pace of purchases in order to keep the level of accommodation consistent with the outlook.” Conclusion Let me reiterate how pleased I am to be here on Staten Island and to have the opportunity to speak to the members of the Chamber. Parts of Staten Island were among the most devastated areas in the region and we at the Federal Reserve Bank are committed to doing all that we can to help people and businesses recover. Many obstacles remain to be overcome but I am confident that Staten Island will meet the challenges that lay ahead. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
They had the vision to put in place international institutions that might help prevent the disintegration of the open trading system that they saw as necessary to a revival of economic prosperity. We have not had to go through a time of economic disaster. We have had the opportunity to experience an extraordinary flowering of the international trading system, and the entry into that of the world’s two largest populations. The expansion of trade, the rise in the number of qualified people entering the world’s labour force, and the growing realisation that we can all benefit from trade has raised living standards and provided us with opportunities to reduce poverty around the world. That should make it easier, not more difficult, to design international institutions to sustain those developments. We will have only ourselves to blame if we fail to live up to that challenge and simply allow the IMF to evolve through a series of ever more bland communiqués and meaningless statements. Today, I have tried to challenge the thinking behind the slow progress in reforming the IMF. But that should not be interpreted as any criticism of the extraordinarily talented and committed people who work for the Fund. On the contrary, the responsibility for reform lies fairly and squarely with the shareholders – the member countries. Nor are the issues an arcane exercise in international finance. As Governor Deshmukh said in his speech in Savannah, agreements on the international monetary system and on trade go hand in hand.

A key feature of mimetic behaviour is that all borrowers are "tarred with the same brush". So when one emerging economy encounters difficulties, all neighbouring countries are treated in the same way – regardless of their actual economic and financial situation. The same applies to businesses operating in the same economic sector. Transparency may have improved since the Asian crisis, which may explain why contagion effects are nowadays rather subdued (sees Argentina…). Let us continue and reinforce these efforts. Second possible avenue: Taking into accounts the medium and long-term perspective of some market participants Some investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, have to invest funds in order to enable their customers to build up wealth over the medium and long-term, notably in preparation for retirement. Consequently, these types of investors are supposed to behave differently from traders and short-term investors, who are working on a very different time horizon. But at times it seems that they are all pushed to behave in much the same way, on the basis of a very short-term horizon. To preserve, and even restore, their specific investment approach, these investors might be more shielded from excessive short-term pressures. This objective raises considerable difficulties, because it touches on the way in which the performances of medium and long-term funds and life insurance companies are assessed. In other words, this objective concerns the accounting standards and practices they use. It might imply that some rules and standards would be adapted to the medium and long-term horizon used by these entities.
This indicates that the countries which are still below that level have an enormous potential for further growth. But the question posed has been whether such growth would be sustainable or not in the long run. In other words, whether it could continue to create wealth and improve the standard of living of the people. It has also been observed that countries which generate a share of 60 percent and above from the services sector have been able to record a sustainable GDP expansion over the years. The larger share of services, as claimed by critiques, has in no way contributed to retard their growth. In fact, the preponderant growth in the services sector has helped them to improve both agriculture and the industry sectors on efficiency grounds, infusing sustainability to those two sectors as well. Hence, it can be safely concluded that a share of about 65 to 70 percent in the services sector would provide a country with immense prospects for wealth creation, provided it gains competitive advantage in the production of such services. In this context, the future growth prospects available to China are enormous, since its services sector still accounts for only 35 percent of its GDP. Both India and Sri Lanka too stand to gain on account of the leeway available for them to push the services sector’s contribution to above 65 percent. Hence, it is important that they should exploit this growth potential without further delay.

And as major financial crises do not, I am glad to say, occur so often and the banks’ data is often limited, there is actually a risk that they will underestimate the risks in their lending. A gross solvency requirement as a complement to the standard capital adequacy requirement thereby acts as an extra safety measure. In response to the criticism from the Swedish banks there is another factor that I would like to take up. In Sweden, the banks can lend money to households with very little risk. This is because the historical losses for mortgage lending in Sweden have been at very low levels. This in turn can be explained by a number of factors. One explanation is that in contrast to many other countries we do not have a speculative housing market on which households buy several houses or flats for investment purposes and thus take a high risk. Another is that we have a legal structure in which private individuals have to live with their debts until they are repaid. In general, people cannot get rid of their debts by filing for personal bankruptcy. A third reason is that we have a social insurance and benefits system that means that people who become unemployed, for example, do not lose their entire income. The likelihood of borrowers not wanting or not being able to make the interest and amortization payments on their loans is therefore relatively small.
It is therefore in the interests of the Riksbank to participate in a dialogue and the development of knowledge that will facilitate this dialogue. I have here today identified a number of areas for future study and research. They have to do with the adaptation of wages in Sweden to the rate of wage increase in the Euro area, increased variability in nominal wage costs in Sweden and increased geographical and professional mobility in the European labour market. Let me to this add the big issue of demographic change and its effects on labour supply. Another interesting question, which is of imminent importance to Sweden, has to do with what 7  See Björklund et al. (2000): Arbetsmarknaden (The Labour Market), SNS Förlag, Kristianstad. 8  Communication, New European Labour Markets, Open to All, with Access for All, COM (2001)116. 6  BIS Review 40/2002  effects wage increases in the public sector will have on inflation. I hope that the trade unions in Europe will take an active part in initiating and carrying out research projects in these fields. Thank you for listening! 1.

To promote growth in our local communities, we publish extensive data and analysis on the local economy. We provide outreach initiatives, such as our workshops on access to global markets to help small businesses learn about loan programs and sources of credit enhancements. We also run an annual video festival for college students in the Second District. In this program student teams produce videos aimed to help young adults make  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  sound personal financial decisions. A panel of advertising and video professionals selects winning video productions for screening in local movie theaters. As you know, even states as wealthy as Connecticut have large pockets of poverty. So, we target some of our work specifically to low- and moderate-income groups. We have worked hard to help neighborhoods that face high foreclosure rates. This work is important obviously because foreclosures are a terrible event for those who lose their homes. But beyond that, this work is important because high levels of foreclosures affect neighbors’ home values, the local tax base and economic vitality more broadly. We have provided housing counselors and community groups with the latest information on mortgage conditions via mortgage briefs, roundtables, presentations and an interactive web tool that shows very local monthly delinquency and foreclosure conditions. This past fall we hosted a conference on distressed residential real estate to share new expert analysis with senior policymakers and practitioners from across the nation.