samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Reforma is needed I would suggest that Reforma is urgently needed in the conduct of fiscal affairs in our nation’s capital. And I will leave you with this thought: The power to make that happen is in your hands. You and your fellow citizens across this great country are the ones who elect the people who tax you and decide where to spend your money; you ultimately direct the nation’s fiscal future. And you share in the blame for it being such a mess. Accepting the status quo means you are acquiescing to encumbering your children and your children’s children with mismanaged fiscal policy, crippling debt and a dismal economic future. Look to Alejandro Junco as an example. He has taken great risk with his person and his family’s treasure to take on the status quo. Like Alejandro did for journalism in Mexico, I hope you will step up to the plate, risk whatever personal benefits and comforts you derive from the current regime and use your talents and resources to force a course correction in the fiscal affairs of our nation. For only then can we be assured of a bright and prosperous economic future. And only then can monetary policy, properly conducted, perform with maximum efficiency and minimal risk to price stability to restore the great job-creation potential of America. Thank you. About the author Richard W. Fisher is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Richard W Fisher: A report on the Texas economy and a hawk(s)eye view on recent Fed pronouncements – what does it all mean? Remarks by Mr Richard W Fisher, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, before the Headliners Club, Austin, Texas, 2 February 2012. *  *  *  Thank you, Patti [Ohlendorf]. I am flattered that such a great group of Austinites has turned out tonight. I am especially pleased that Alejandro and Rosa Laura Junco are here. Alejandro is CEO of the print media company Grupo Reforma. He has earned a sterling reputation for journalistic independence in a part of the world where independence is a rare and sometimes dangerous thing. Columbia University, the University of Missouri and Michigan State University have honored him for his journalistic accomplishments, and the University of Texas at Austin has named him a Distinguished Alumnus. Alejandro’s company and its flagship paper in Mexico City take their name from La Reforma, a period of liberalizing reforms that transformed Mexico into a nation state in the mid-19th century, beginning with the overthrow of the man Texans know best and like least – Santa Anna – and ending with the ascension to power of a good general gone bad, Porfirio Diaz. As a child growing up in Mexico City, I was taught about La Reforma in school.
The changes in the financial environment (such as the narrowing of margins, external financing constraints or the increase in bad debts linked to the real estate sector and to unemployment) highlight certain core business weaknesses in part of the Spanish banking system. Some degree of restructuring to ensure the system's long-term resilience is therefore not only inevitable but also healthy. Spanish systemic banks may ride out the crisis unaided. But clearly, as the case of Caja de Castilla la Mancha shows, if the international crisis is prolonged it might well prove necessary to restructure some small-and medium-sized institutions. And given the scale and intensity of the current global financial crisis, we should be ready to use more public funds than on previous occasions. Parliament has just approved a widely backed motion incorporating certain restructuring principles that I find most interesting, and which I shall remind you of. First, the cost of bank restructuring should be as low as possible for the public coffers, whereby efforts should be chiefly directed at seeking solutions within the private sector. Second, the reorganisation plans chosen should not lead to a widespread recapitalisation of banks as a whole. And in relation to this, I would add two points: one, that the assistance - if any - granted to specific banks should be tied to their restructuring, since this is what the competition rules of the single European market require; and two, that the managers who pursued unsuitable business plans from the standpoint of prudent risk management should assume the consequences.

François Villeroy de Galhau: Pushing back the limits of insurability Closing remarks by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution (ACPR), at the 10th international conference on insurance, Paris, 26 October 2018. * * * Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted to be with you today to give the closing remarks at this tenth international conference on insurance, organised under the aegis of President Bernard Spitz. We don’t say it often enough: the financial sector is one of the French economy’s key strengths. Another point that bears repeating is that, within this financial sector, insurers play a critical role in financing our economy. This will be the first point that I touch on. I will go on to look at regulatory developments, hailing the progress made in the last year and picking out some European challenges that we must face together. I will close by speaking about “the limits of insurability”: your theme today is as old as your profession, which dates back to the bottomry arrangements used to protect shipping ventures in ancient times and the first recorded insurance policy written in Genoa in 1347. But the question has taken on a renewed urgency today with the emergence of new risks, particularly those relating to climate change. **  I. Insurers play a critical role in financing the economy. The ACPR recently published its annual statistical report, which showed that the French insurance sector is in good shape.
The French Governor himself entertained Strong at the Ritz, and begged him to start his scheme as soon as possible. Before Strong left France, the Governor presented him with more medals, a copy of correspondence between Talleyrand and Louis XVIII, and an advance printing of the new ten franc note. The British proved a little harder to read. Lord Cunliffe, the Bank of England’s Governor, had a certain reputation. As the Bank’s own official history puts it, ‘Cunliffe in his prime was an aggressive character, who enjoyed a game of bluff, even when he lost it. He evidently had the advantage of knowing his own mind, 4  perhaps not a very difficult mind to know’. Strong had been warned by private bankers that Cunliffe was ‘mentally very slow to act’. And in their first meeting, Cunliffe – no doubt deliberately – left Strong unclear whether he was annoyed with him (for failing to forewarn him of his visit and ‘stirring up’ the local bankers with his speech about business moving to New York), or merely ‘joshing’. Despite this typically ambivalent British welcome, Strong rapidly developed a good understanding with Cunliffe. His bond with Montagu Norman, then an Assistant to the Deputy Governor Sir Brien Cokayne and later its longest-serving Governor, proved closer still. Both sides quickly concluded that providing each other with access to their domestic markets would help ensure the orderly recycling of the other’s foreign reserves. Such arrangements had three key advantages.

But the potential sophistication of today’s attackers, and the financial, reputational and legal risks they pose to central banks are far greater than a century ago. 8  The Bank of England Archives hold a number of letters between Cunliffe, Cokayne and Strong on this subject. 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  6  As Simon Potter has already said, that is why it is so important that, just as central banks co-operate to provide the services they need to another, they must also co-operate in raising the standards and controls applied to those services to the highest possible levels – because we are only as strong as our weakest link. Raising standards means:   Within our own organisations – having robust risk-based processes for assessing counterparties and transactions, in compliance with relevant law and guidance; for controlling the access, people and system risks in central banking processes; and for monitoring and responding to potential risks if and when they crystallise.   And, externally, it means sharing intelligence and promoting best practice; and complying and attesting promptly, and with candour, to relevant international standards. Making progress in both of these areas is vital if the expansion in access to central banks services of recent years is to be maintained. I want to end on a positive note. The international system is constantly evolving. Policy regimes come and go. And the importance of specific reserve currencies may rise and fall: the minnows of today can be the giants of tomorrow.
Less extreme is the euro zone, where, after a period of slow growth in the area as a whole, recovery is now well established. The internal imbalances in each country - differences between growth of domestic demand and the supply of output - are the mirror image of the external imbalances - current account surpluses and deficits. Widening imbalances are unlikely to be sustainable for long. But the extent to which they will be self-correcting, or will require policy adjustment, depends in large part on why they have arisen. This is my second question - why have the imbalances arisen? Sustained current account deficits can reflect profitable investment opportunities that exceed the supply of domestic savings so that it is necessary to borrow from abroad. And the most popular explanation of the recent rapid growth in domestic demand, especially in the US, is as the consequence of a rise in productivity growth, and investment opportunities, reflecting the so-called “new economy”. It has been pointed out by several economists, including Alan Greenspan and my colleague John Vickers, that an increase in trend productivity growth might increase demand by more than it raised supply initially, as firms invest in new technology and consumers anticipate higher future incomes and spend today out of this revised estimate of their “permanent” income. Hence new information technologies, because they raise  BIS Review 34/2000  2  potential future output in the economy, would add to demand today.

One way or another the imbalances in the world economy will be corrected. That is likely to go hand in hand with changes in exchange rates and other asset prices. Whether this will happen gradually or through a sharp adjustment is impossible to know. But those changes will have a major influence on the speed at which the economic see-saw in the UK will move back to balance. The message for policy is that it is important not to let domestic demand grow too rapidly for too long. The longer the correction is left, the sharper the required adjustment will be. The higher one end of the see-saw, the greater the subsequent lurch will be. The trade deficit cannot continue to widen indefinitely. Hence, at some point domestic demand will have to grow at below its sustainable trend level rather than significantly above as it has done now for some time - over 4% a year on average over the past four years. By acting preemptively, and trying to anticipate developments, the MPC has been able to maintain overall stability in the economy, but the sharp rise in sterling led to a lurch in the economic see-saw. In one of the most influential contributions to monetary policy in the post-war period, Milton Friedman wrote that the characteristic of most central banks was that “too late and too much has been the general practice”.
When the fixed exchange rate target was abandoned in November 1992, after an unsuccessful attempt to defend the krona – you probably all remember the increase in the marginal rate to 500 per cent – it followed on from yet another cost crisis. At the beginning of 1993, the outlook for the Swedish economy was bleak - we were in the midst of an international economic slowdown, the banking crisis was a fact, interest rates were high and unemployment was soaring. During the period with a fixed exchange rate fiscal policy had borne the entire responsibility for stabilisation policy, while monetary policy had been tied to defending the krona rate. It was evident that fiscal policy had not been sufficiently tightened in connection with the overheating to which credit deregulation contributed. It was high time to break with history – but how should this be done? A new stabilisation policy regime A comprehensive change in regime was implemented in order to take Sweden out of the crisis and to create the conditions for a more stable and more favourable economic development. Central government finances were consolidated and fiscal policy was subjected to regulations regarding an expenditure ceiling and surplus target to attain a long-term balance in public finances. Monetary policy was aimed at safeguarding price stability. The interest rate, which had been a tool for balancing currency flows during the period with an exchange rate target, would now be used to affect demand in the economy with the aim of stabilising price trends.

3 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Short-Term Inflation Expectations Continue to  Decline, Tick up Slightly in Longer Term , January 9, 2023. 4 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Issues FOMC  Statement , December 14, 2022. 5 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Plans for Reducing the Size of  the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet , May 4, 2022. 4/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
A key feature of mimetic behaviour is that all borrowers are "tarred with the same brush". So when one emerging economy encounters difficulties, all neighbouring countries are treated in the same way – regardless of their actual economic and financial situation. The same applies to businesses operating in the same economic sector. Transparency may have improved since the Asian crisis, which may explain why contagion effects are nowadays rather subdued (sees Argentina…). Let us continue and reinforce these efforts. Second possible avenue: Taking into accounts the medium and long-term perspective of some market participants Some investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, have to invest funds in order to enable their customers to build up wealth over the medium and long-term, notably in preparation for retirement. Consequently, these types of investors are supposed to behave differently from traders and short-term investors, who are working on a very different time horizon. But at times it seems that they are all pushed to behave in much the same way, on the basis of a very short-term horizon. To preserve, and even restore, their specific investment approach, these investors might be more shielded from excessive short-term pressures. This objective raises considerable difficulties, because it touches on the way in which the performances of medium and long-term funds and life insurance companies are assessed. In other words, this objective concerns the accounting standards and practices they use. It might imply that some rules and standards would be adapted to the medium and long-term horizon used by these entities.

Jean-Claude Trichet: Asset price bubbles and their implications for monetary policy and financial stability Keynote address by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Asset Price Bubbles conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, 23 April 2002. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great honour and pleasure for me to talk today in Chicago at the invitation of the World Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in front of such a distinguished audience on the theme of asset price bubbles. As a central banker, my main focus will be on the implications of asset price developments and bubbles for both monetary policy and financial stability. The far-reaching changes observed over the last decade on financial markets, the growing role of these markets for the financing of the economy, and the evidence gathered over the recent period on the key role that financial factors may play in shaping and amplifying the business cycle, have drawn attention to the relative importance of asset prices and wealth effects on the real economy. There are at least two reasons why asset prices and wealth effects may have grown over the last decade: ·  first, changes in asset valuations, mainly driven by the rise in the new economy stock prices from the mid-1990s and their subsequent collapse in 2000, have been dramatic. This is well documented for the United States.
The cost level with the current krone exchange rate is close to 15 per cent higher than in the mid-1990s and about 6 per cent higher than the average for the past 30-35 years. Norwegian businesses are losing market shares in domestic and foreign markets partly because of the strong real krone exchange rate. In the face of major restructuring as a result of shifts in the international division of labour, it is a disadvantage for Norwegian business and industry that costs are high. Reports from Norges Bank’s regional network confirm the picture of an expanding economy. In the September round of interviews, our contacts throughout the country reported continued growth in all the main industries. Our contacts here in western Norway report continued recovery in all industries. Suppliers to the petroleum sector report solid growth, while the export industry reports somewhat lower growth now than before the summer. Growth is picking up in the building and construction sector. New developments include activity in commercial construction, which has also increased this time. Growth in retail trade is solid, and reports of increased willingness to invest apply primarily to this sector. Signals from the regional network indicate some increase in employment in retail trade and the building and construction sector. Manufacturing now reports no change in employment after a moderate rise in the last couple of rounds. Directorate of Labour figures show that unemployment in Region South-West is a little lower than in the country as a whole.

This is not a cause for concern because it is the foreign currency value of the reserves that matters. •  Financial stability. Our financial system is sound. It will be resilient against a normalisation of global monetary conditions. But household balance sheets are a source of concern – not at the aggregate level, but a significant minority could be over-leveraged. Hence, the variety of macroprudential measures we have taken over the last three years. •  Financial supervision. We are fully compliant with international standards, and have taken strong measures to ensure we remain a clean and trusted financial centre. We have stepped up to meet enhanced global standards on information exchange and have intensified our supervision of financial institutions to ensure we keep illicit money out from our financial centre. •  Financial development. The key drivers of future growth in our financial centre are showing good promise. The asset management industry has reached a new peak. We are now clearly the insurance and reinsurance hub in a growing Asia. And we are off to a good start to building a vibrant ecosystem as an offshore RMB hub. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Inflation is still high at present, but the forecast for inflation was adjusted downwards for the entire forecast period in the Monetary Policy Report published in October. Our assessment was that inflation will fall quickly over the coming year and then rise slightly, reaching the target of 2 per cent in 2011. The slowdown in economic activity will in all likelihood have a dampening effect on domestic price pressures. Another factor that contributes significantly to the changed view of inflation prospects is the fall in commodity prices. It is mainly increases in energy and food prices that have earlier pushed up inflation in Sweden far above the target. During the fourth quarter of last year commodity prices began to rise. The inflation rate will fall if there are no price increases or if the increases are lower than last year. To summarise, there are several factors pointing to a decline in the inflation rate. The Executive Board’s assessment at its most recent meeting in October was therefore that a repo rate cut was not incompatible with the price stability target. It was possible to use monetary policy to alleviate the negative effects of the crisis on the real economy without any risk of neglecting the inflation target. What has happened since the most recent monetary policy meeting? The picture of a drastic slowdown in economic activity has been reinforced, both in Sweden and abroad. New statistics confirm the picture of an economic downturn and falling inflationary pressures.

The industrial companies tried to make use of their promised loan facilities with the banks, but the banks were not able to lend money as usual. This resulted in a credit gridlock, which severely limited the access to loans. The problems spread from the United States to Europe and the European credit system also essentially ceased functioning. This meant that the Swedish banks and the Swedish financial system also suffered problems. BIS Review 149/2008  1  …followed by countermeasures and stabilisation In this situation governments, central banks and other authorities were forced to intervene to avoid a collapse in the global financial system. Without these measures the financial markets would most probably have ceased functioning – things were so serious. The measures have taken different forms in different countries, but two main types can be identified. The first is that the banks have been offered risk capital or other guarantees so that they can survive the crisis. The aim is to avoid more defaults like Lehman Brothers occurring when the financial market is so vulnerable. Those who lend money to a bank should be able to feel certain that the bank will still be there when it is time to repay the loan. The second type of measure is that the central banks have continuously supplied the banks with the short and medium-term loans they have not been able to obtain in the usual way on the market.