samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, the lessons from the Asian crisis are still kept in mind as international borrowing, especially short-term borrowing, has continued to be below the pre-crisis levels in most regional economies. Overall, economic integration in our region has proceeded quite rapidly. However, the degree of regional financial integration still lags that of trade integration. It is also important to mention that the financial markets in East Asia are integrated relatively more with the global markets than with each other. One important evidence is that the regional stock markets have moved more closely with the US market. Ladies and Gentlemen, Now I would like to get back to the earlier point to explain why I think that regional economic integration has played a role in helping the regional economies deal with this current financial crisis. It is evident that regional trade integration has provided a better buffer against declining export demand from the G3 economies. Even though the main final demand for East Asian products through intra-regional trade is still in the G3 economies, the strong and growing domestic demand in regional economies especially China and India over the years gives a significant additional cushion for our exports compared with the past crises. Export revenues that the Asian economies have accumulated over the years largely through the regional  2  BIS Review 147/2008  production network have been a major contributor to the build up of foreign reserves at a comfortable level.

Stress testing is an example of a top-down tool we could consider: does the capital position suggested by the detailed, bottom-up modelling deliver resilience at both firm- and sector level to common, real world shocks that we can reasonably expect them to withstand? Stress testing may not be the only additional tool. The government has an objective of facilitating productive investment to aid recovery and adaptation – not just to the structural changes wrought by the experience of the pandemic, but also to the equally severe, long term threat of climate change. Insurers are embracing the part that they can play in financing the transition to a net zero carbon economy with their long term investment. But many of the projects that take us to net zero will be innovative and lacking an historical track record: there is a legitimate concern that the riskiness of such projects will be overstated by capital modelling that relies heavily on historical data for its inputs and for validation. At the same time the prudential regime has to reflect the economic risks involved. We are interested in the possibility for equally innovative risk measurement tools that have the flexibility to cope with any such bias in existing modelling methods, and deliver a balanced risk assessment: I welcome your thoughts on this directly or in responses to the Solvency II call for evidence. Conclusion In finance, the ‘Greeks’ have become synonymous with the inner workings of models for pricing derivatives – a fox-like activity if ever there was one.
However, despite these uncertainties, 2016 was marked by a certain degree of stability in Europe: euro area growth, which was at first fragile at the beginning of the year, strengthened and financial markets proved resilient in the face of the different shocks. For 2017, of course, none of these uncertainties have been lifted and others will be added to the list: 2017 is an election year in the Netherlands, France, Germany and possibly Italy. Nevertheless, the euro area can count on four points of reference:  economic growth, which promises to be robust; in the Eurosystem, it is expected to stand at 1.7%, as in 2016.  the gradual rise in inflation. This should not be a surprise, for several months the Eurosystem has been repeatedly announcing the crossing of the 1% threshold: at endDecember, inflation rose by 1.1% in the euro area. This is partly due to the rebound in energy prices, but it is also the result of our non-standard monetary policy; we have been able to avoid the deadly danger of deflation that was creeping up on us. On the contrary, there now seems to be concerns about a “return of inflation"; this is very exaggerated ... and we have not yet reached our target of 2%. The other point raised concerns the differences between countries, with the German 1.7%. These differences should gradually diminish over the course of the year, and they are consistent with the underlying economic fundamentals. the monetary policy of the Eurosystem.

François Villeroy de Galhau: Prospects, challenges and promises New Year wishes to the Paris financial centre New Year wishes to the Paris financial centre by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, 12 January 2017. * * * I would like to welcome you all, our partners throughout the year – public officials, financial and economic players, journalists – to this magnificent Golden Gallery for this happy tradition of extending New Year wishes to the Paris financial centre. I would like to start by extending to you, on behalf of the whole of the Banque de France and the ACPR, our warmest wishes for 2017, for you and your loved ones, as well as for all of your staff. To these personal wishes, I would like to add several collective wishes this evening: first for Europe and its economy, then for our country, and finally for the smooth financing of our economy and for financial institutions. 1. For Europe and its economy A year ago, I had noted with you that 2016 had begun as the year of volatility, with the turbulences in the financial markets. In fact, 2016 was rather the year of uncertainty, with the Brexit victory in June, the American election in November and the Italian referendum in December.
And if London was important to the world, the world was also crucial to London; more than half the value of securities quoted on the London Stock Exchange was accounted for by loans for foreign companies and governments. 7 As an editor of the Economist during the period put it: “It [the City] is the greatest shop, the greatest store, the freest market for commoditites, gold and securities, the greatest disposer of capital, the greatest dispenser of credit, but above and beyond, as well as by reason of all these marks of financial and commercial supremacy, it is the world’s clearing house.” 8 The benign international environment disappeared with the outbreak of the Great War, and the UK’s political and economic standing in the world fell away steadily through the following 60 years. By 1950, average incomes in the UK were below those in the United States, and they fell below Germany and France by 1970. The economic dominance of the United States ensured New York’s place as the leading financial centre and the American commercial banks became the world’s largest. In the 70s and 80s the growth of Japan propelled Tokyo up the rankings. And in Britain, the share of foreign securities issuance fell to only 6% in 1961, as against more than half before 1914. So by the 1970s London was benefiting from few of the factors which had produced its golden period before the first War.

When I tapped my phone against an ipad to buy my coffee earlier, my payment may have involved as many as four different non-bank entities – in addition to my own bank, the retailer’s bank, and the payment system (in this case, Visa). It is possible that over time, one of these new entities will become so critical that disruption to it could take down the entire chain. And, if they could disrupt the entire chain, the risks these entities could pose would be comparable to the risks posed by the payments systems we currently regulate for financial stability. To safeguard and future-proof our regulatory framework, we need to move away from a system in which how you are regulated depends on the type of entity you are, towards one in which what matters is what risks you  4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  4  pose. In other words: regulation of payments should reflect the financial stability risk, rather than the legal form, of payments activities. This should cover the entire chain, end-to-end. This may seem obvious: same risk, same regulation. It is hard to argue that regulation should not reflect risks. And a framework that focused on risks rather than legal form would help level the playing field – ensuring that regulation isn’t unfairly applied to one type of firm but not another as a result of their legal structure or status.
When a country has received a timetable for EU entry, investors know that, despite political and economic upheaval, there is a certain fundamental security in its institutions. They know the rules that apply to membership in the shape of democracy, a market economy and the EU's  BIS Review 51/2004  3  acquis - all the regulations agreed so far that each new member state adopts. This has very much been the case with the eight new member states that became free from communism. Between 1993 and 2003 more than EUR 130 billion (SEK 1150 billion or almost half of Sweden’s current GDP) was invested in the eight countries, of which large parts were capital from old EU countries. The investment was mainly channelled into capital in industry and into infrastructure such as energy and telecommunications. A significant Swedish example is the large-scale investment undertaken by Swedbank and SEB in the Baltic banking system. From 1998 both of these Swedish banks have each acquired a part of the Baltic banking system, comprising a total ownership of almost 90 per cent. The Baltic banking system, which previously has been hit by several banking crises, has since then grown very fast, with an annual credit growth of 20-30 per cent, giving increased opportunities for both large and small firms, but also mortgages for individuals. A number of new services, including Internet banking, have been introduced and become widespread.

Ireland and the dynamic Asian economies grew 9-10 per cent a year during their most intense catch-up phase. But the largest of the new member states - Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic - are only growing a few percentage points faster than the average for the old countries; an average that furthermore is being pulled down by the poor performances of Germany, France and Italy. From this we can come to at least two conclusions: Firstly, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, which already have fairly substantial public expenditures for their income level, should take care not to end up in the same situation as Germany, France and Italy, with high expenditures, large deficits and considerable needs for reform. Secondly, both new and old countries need a broader injection from the enlargement for their economic performance. Mobility for goods has been one of the key factors behind the new member states' growth. When the process towards EU entry was initiated in the mid-1990s, the majority of the EU’s barriers to trade for the future member states were abandoned through the Europe agreements. This resulted in one of the most dramatic and least publicised changes in trade in modern time - far more significant for most EU countries than, for instance, trade with China today.
Today we help promote financial literacy through a video competition in partnership with the Puerto Rican Bankers Association. Our banking supervisors work to strengthen the financial system so it can readily supply credit to families and businesses, while our research economists monitor and analyze local economic conditions. This analysis – along with similar analyses from other regions across our nation – feeds into the decisions the Federal Reserve makes on monetary policy. In support of this work, I and other senior officials have traveled to Puerto Rico a number of times in recent years and met with a wide range of stakeholders, including university officials, students, business leaders, entrepreneurs, bankers and government officials. What we learn during these engagements helps to shape our understanding of the Puerto Rican economy and our efforts to support it. I have seen numerous examples of expansion and growth. This gives me confidence that Puerto Rico has the capability to be an economic success story. Nevertheless, these local engagements have also confirmed to me that conditions are not what we want them to be – in particular, growth and expansion are not happening broadly enough. The task of putting the Island on a path of robust, sustainable and inclusive growth remains a work in progress. During my visit here in March 2011, a number of business and community leaders expressed their concern that the economy had loss competitiveness. These local leaders asked if we would look at what might be holding back growth on the Island.

Before he does so, I would like to share with you my assessment of economic conditions on the mainland and in Puerto Rico. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System. National economic conditions The mainland U.S. economy has continued to slowly recover from the after-effects of the housing boom and bust and the financial crisis. But the recovery has been disappointing. Despite a monetary policy that has been extraordinarily accommodative by historical standards, the economy has grown only about 2 percent over the past year. After a brighter start to the year, economic momentum has slowed in the last few months. (This may partly be a payback for the mild winter, which brought forward some spending.) Employment growth remains positive, but has slowed considerably of late as the economy has lost forward momentum, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. The headwinds retarding recovery are well known. Many consumers have been deleveraging in response to the large losses in wealth generated mainly by the collapse in home prices. The supply of credit – particularly mortgage credit – to many families remains constrained, limiting the degree to which many households can fully benefit from low interest rates. Although there have been some positive signs in the housing market recently, housing activity nevertheless remains at very low levels.
Accordingly, the participating banks will be able to effect customer/bank initiated transactions relating to: third party transfers (account-toaccount transfers), bank transfers, bill payments, inward remittances, statutory payments such as taxes, local government rates, inter-bank transactions, direct debits and local credit card transactions. Above all, CPSs, will help reduce bank charges on financial transactions and pass on benefits to customers. Korea and Thailand have facilitated real time settlement of retail payments from person to person (P2P) or business to business (B2B) through CPSs, which is considered to be an affordable and an effective method of facilitating retail payments. 3.6 Ladies and gentlemen, it is for us to convert these challenges to opportunities. I believe that if policy makers, regulators, bankers and service providers work in a coordinated manner with a commitment to improve the retail payments in the region, we will be able to reap the benefits in the near future. I would like to mention a few areas that require urgent attention. 3.7 Improve inter-operability and facilitate supply chain transactions: Many financial products are not linked to financing the supply chain transactions, such as purchases, transportation, marketing of produce of farmers’ small businesses, SMEs and micro enterprises, because many retail payment instruments and mechanisms are not interoperable or flexible enough to facilitate supply chain transactions. Farmers and small businesses use more cash at harvest times and both cash and cheques during post harvest periods.

• In FX alone, there are more than 30 futures and options. The next stage in our growth as a risk management centre is to become an electronic trading hub in Asia. •  As Asian FX flows grow, Asia will become an increasingly important FX market where price discovery takes place. •  We are working with key partners to build up the e-trading infrastructure in Singapore. •  This will improve trade execution and reduce latency in pricing, thereby lowering transaction costs for investors. Besides connecting global investors to Asia, Singapore is well placed to facilitate financing opportunities for Asia. We are building platforms to facilitate bond issuance and infrastructure financing in Asia. •  This will in turn broaden the suite and depth of Asian investable assets for global investors. Singapore is among the choice destinations for Asian bonds issuance. •  Singapore’s bond market has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of around 9% over last five years to reach $ billion. •  The bond market ecosystem remains a big draw, with several companies issuing in Singapore repeatedly. • For instance, Hitachi International Ltd has tapped Singapore’s debt market frequently for more than a decade, raising over $ billion in total. Investors are able to access in Singapore a variety of bonds, denominated in G3 as well as Asian currencies.
Average inflation between 2001 and 2013 was 3.1% annually. Pillar number three is our floating exchange rate regime. Exchange rate flexibility allows to rapidly and effectively accommodate big external shocks such as changes in the terms of trade via movements in the exchange rate. This flexibility gives more room to monetary policy to contribute to the smoothing of the domestic business cycle. Chile’s long-term interest rates, unlike those of other economies, have decreased in recent months. And they are certainly lower than they were in the 1990s. By way of example, compare the 6.5% average rate of indexed 10-year bonds in the nineties with their 2% rate of today. The floating exchange rate provides the right incentives to the private sector to administer the currency and foreign liquidity risks in a much globally integrated economy like ours. On the financial sector side, there is a sound regulatory and supervisory framework grounded on a set of prudential norms and standards. These are in line with international recommendations, and are under the supervision of specialized regulatory entities, aimed at the correct management of financial institutions. All this has helped to develop a mature, stable, solvent financial system. The Basel index, measured by the Capital Adequacy Ratio of the Chilean banking system is more than 13%. The banking sector shows sound capital and funding structures, concentrated in long-term sources. Additionally, they carry no significant currency mismatches on their balance sheets, nor do their customers.

These include crimes such as trafficking in drugs, women and children, as well as trading of illegal weapons. But there are more subtle forms of economic crime where authorities find it difficult to agree on the risks. In such cases, cooperation in combating such crimes would be more difficult. Examples of such cases are when bigger nations exploit the natural resources of smaller nations, which have been a practice for over 100 years since the days of colonization. Modern fortes of such crimes can be seen in cases where influential businessmen from large countries move into smaller countries under the pretext of technological advancement to exploit the latter's natural resources, which often are claimed for the mutual benefits of both parties. But it is clear that the allocation of such benefits is often not balanced. There is also a case of exploitation of consumers in smaller nations when products which are hazardous to health in bigger nations, have been relocated for production and sale in less developed nations. An example of this is tobaccos and cigarettes, which come under stringent restrictions on sales and advertisement in bigger nations but have been sold in other nations with highly persuasive but subtle advertisement campaigns aimed at teenagers and women. There are also cases of certain medicines which have been banned in more developed markets and yet can still be found on the shelves of other less developed markets. There is no way for the authorities of two nations to agree that such dubious practices constitute economic crimes.
Indeed, the author of the Life and Times of Marlborough would likely have approved of this choice of venue for today’s launch. After all, Blenheim Palace was built as a gift to the first Duke of Marlborough, John Churchill, in recognition for his leadership of the Allied forces to victory in the Battle of Blenheim in 1704 – a victory that would decisively turn the War of Spanish Succession. Winston Churchill was born here in 1874 and proposed to his wife, Clementine Hozier, on these grounds in 1908. Banknote character Winston Churchill will replace Elizabeth Fry, the prison reformer, on the Fiver from September of this year. The new £ note will in due course sit alongside the new £ which will feature Jane Austen, the new £ which celebrates JMW Turner, and the existing £ which profiles Boulton and Watt. Individuals who symbolise the breadth and depth of British achievement across statecraft, social reform, literature, visual arts, science and commerce. This demonstrates that our banknotes do not just have economic value – the classic roles of money to facilitate trade, store value, and provide a unit of account. Banknotes have cultural value as well. By depicting characters on our banknotes, we celebrate those who have advanced British thought, spurred innovation, shown exceptional leadership, shaped this diverse society and forged its common values. In these regards, money is memory for a country and its people. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  I have already alluded to why Churchill is a worthy choice.

Pablo Hernández de Cos: Close of the 2019/20 academic year Speech by Mr Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, at the Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros (CEMFI), Madrid, 10 July 2020. * * * Good afternoon class of 2020. Good afternoon dear colleagues, friends and families. It is a pleasure for me to participate in this virtual graduation ceremony together with Mari Luz Morán, Rector of Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo, Susanna Esteban, Director of the Master Program, and Rafael Repullo, Director of CEMFI. I would especially like to thank the Rector for being here today. The partnership with Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo dating back to 2006 has been instrumental in improving our ability to attract excellent students and the quality of our graduate program, and I am very grateful for this. Before I begin, let me acknowledge everyone whose hard work has made this online celebration possible, especially the CEMFI administrative and IT staff. The world into which this class of 2020 is graduating is a fundamentally different one from what we expected just a few months back. The coronavirus pandemic has caused the loss of many lives and affected the livelihood of millions of people worldwide.