samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
200 It a l y  B el g i u m Po r t ug a l 0 . 150 Au st r ia  Fr a nce  No r wa y 0 . 100  G er m an y  Fi nla nd Ir e l a n d NZ N e t he r la nd s S w i t ze r l a n d Au str a lilia a De nma r k Sw e de n  0 .

And a strong and stable European economy is probably of greater importance to the world at large than is any particular level for the euro’s exchange rate. So, the euro has arrived. It has already made an impact on financial markets and trade, and that impact is likely to expand over time. We disregard it at our cost. And we should focus on the longer-term implications of the euro rather than dwell too much on its short-term vicissitudes. Finally, in Hong Kong we should perhaps be watching with special interest the evolution of the euro and the way in which the associated macroeconomic challenges within Euroland are tackled, to see what lessons might be put in store for a future generation of central bankers in this region, who might at some stage decide that the time had come to launch a similar initiative. BIS Review 53/1999  4
However, even though Norges Bank closely tracks the GPFG’s benchmark index, many big and small choices have to be made every day. The Executive Board is satisfied that the return over time has been higher than the return on the benchmark index against which the GPFG’s performance is measured. For 2021, the GPFG’s investments earned an overall return of 14.5 percent before management costs. The return was 0.74 percentage point higher than the return on the benchmark index defined by the Ministry of Finance. Since the turn of the year, the markets have been affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and higher inflation in many countries. The GPFG’s equity and bond investments both fell in value in the first quarter of the year, and the overall return on investments was a negative 4.9 percent. Norges Bank’s investment management helped to dampen that fall somewhat. The return was 0.66 percentage point higher than the benchmark index for the quarter. The white paper The Government Pension Fund 2022 contains a broad review of the Bank’s active management of the GPFG. The Ministry proposes to maintain the size of the Bank’s permitted deviations from the benchmark index, measured as expected tracking error. This is consistent with Norges Bank’s assessment that the tracking error limit is adequate. On several occasions in 2021, the Executive Board provided the Ministry of Finance with advice and assessments regarding the GPFG’s approach to climate risk. This is also a key topic in this year’s white paper.

Macroeconomic developments started to turn more positive in the second half of 2013 and in 2014, and accelerated in 2015, although only up to a modest rate of 1.5 %, supported by an expansionary monetary policy, reforms of the institutional framework of the EMU, reduced financial stress, and, more recently, lower oil prices. The first weeks of 2016 came with a significant deterioration of global financial indicators, like stock market valuations or debt spreads. In the case of the euro area, aggregate financial conditions fell back to their prevailing levels of one year before, just when the ECB had announced an expansion of its already very ambitious QE program. Preliminary GDP data for first quarter 2016 Q1 posted a higher number (+0.5 % compared with +0,3 % in the last two quarters of 2015). Uncertainty and a weak global economy keep the balance of risks to the downside, posing important challenges for policy makers that require the contribution of all areas of economic policy at both the national and the euro levels. Challenges and the way forward in the euro area In the current circumstances, synergies among economic policies should be better exploited with a view to maximizing the stimulus to aggregate demand and to accelerate the recovery. There has been progress on structural reforms in recent years, particularly in those countries most affected by the crisis.
In particular, along with the adverse impact that the social distancing measures we may have to maintain in the future may exert on activity, there is a further effect. This is more difficult to measure a priori and relates to the possible and potentially persistent changes in agents’ behaviour in response to the “new normal”. These changes might include modified patterns of consumption and saving, or changes in supply chains or in certain aspects of firms’ operations. All these considerations would warrant qualifying the current recovery as uncertain, to take the second of the adjectives I used earlier to characterise this recovery. Additionally, from the standpoint of the sectors of activity, not all of them suffered on a comparable scale the consequences of the pandemic lockdown measures, as they are not equally susceptible to the imposition of social distancing measures. And the gradual startup in activity is not taking place at the same pace in the different sectors. The earlier normalisation of manufacturing and of certain services coexists alongside a slower than usual recovery in levels of activity in those other services, such as leisure and hospitality, where personal interaction is greater. Here, full normalisation is not likely to be attained until we have an effective medical solution. These differences in the pace at which normal levels of activity in productive sectors are being restored allows us to characterise this recovery as uneven, taking the last of my three adjectives.

The Bingham Report was produced in only a year and contains all that is worth saying about the supervision of BCCI. It was not comfortable reading for the Bank, but the Bank accepted and acted on its findings. The subsequent legal proceedings over thirteen years have benefited only one group at the expense, in the end, largely of the creditors. As Mr Justice Lightman argued in his 2003 Edward Bramley Memorial Lecture, the adversarial system imposes huge costs on litigants and defendants alike. As he put it, “to the great majority of the public the perception (if not the reality) is that the legal system is a profitable monopoly of the lawyers”. BCCI showed that perception was indeed reality. A system that is powerless to prevent a case so hopelessly misconceived continuing for thirteen years requires examination. I very much hope that the Government will look carefully at this case, learn the lessons, and take steps to ensure that such an outcome can never occur again. Finally, who managed to obtain the correct answers to the two questions I gave you at the beginning? Chancellor, you can see that mental arithmetic in the City is not what it was. In fact the answer to the first question is 3/100 or 3%, and to the second question is £ 13s. 9d. - before tax.
In light of this, the Bank of Albania has in the past years initiated a campaign to improve the financial education of the Albanian people. The recent results of our questionnaires indicate that the Albanian urban population shows increasing and a more complete knowledge related to various financial problems they encounter. But the results on rural areas reveal that the education level remains considerably lower. Second, the Albanian agricultural sector suffers from the lack of information and evaluation. As I noted above, one of the reasons why banks hesitate to increase their lending is the lack of complete information on farms and their products. Further, the quality certification standards for Albanian products remain low. One of the main reasons restricting higher exports and, consequently, higher production, is the lack of certification in accordance with the highest standards for all the Albanian agricultural products. This type of certification does not only prove the elementary food security required by the European markets, but also establishes a starting point for competition in the market. The presence of these standards at a reliable level would lead to the improvement of all market mechanisms, by helping bank lending in proportion to the quality of products. In the framework of concerns facing the agricultural sector, the Bank of Albania has increased its interest in microcredit institutions.

In many developing countries, these institutions have led to an increase in lending, particularly to the agricultural sector and the rural population in general, thus trying to work out the formalisation and evaluation problems I stated above. I find that the successful experience of microcredit institutions in other countries could be imported to Albania. Consequently, all policy-makers should get closer to these institutions and help them grow, as the microcredit institutions are the ones that have great potential to become important lenders to the private agricultural enterprises, better than any other intervention by financial and public institutions. Let me conclude by saying once more that the agricultural sector should be an important source for Albania’s further development. But the solution to the problems facing this sector calls not only for greater attention, but above all, for a modern way of thinking and a more concrete cooperation between all related stakeholders. I, therefore, hope that today’s meeting will contribute to drawing the attention towards this important sector and push forward the required structural reforms, which would also encourage the cooperation between agriculture and the banking and financial sector. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
The direction of some of the trends we have seen in the last few weeks is not unwelcome, in particular the stronger euro and weaker dollar, and the reduction in oil prices; and a soft landing looks more likely as a result. But the speed of the adjustment remains a cause for concern. It is important that the irrational exuberance that marked the run-up in equity prices to their peak last year should not give way to irrational despondency. The view among central bank governors meeting recently in Basel was  2  BIS Review 4/2001  that while the next few months may be difficult, for the year as a whole the US economy will continue to grow, by perhaps 2-3%, and the overall world economy - helped by steady growth in the euro area would grow again this year above its long-term average. No doubt this is a slowdown compared to recent rates of growth and a downward revision of earlier expectations of growth for the year, but it is not a downturn in the sense of contracting activity. A soft landing in the US with the associated benefits for the global economy still therefore seems to me the most likely outcome. Implications for the UK Turning to the UK, the need to avoid irrational despondency is even more apparent. While a slowdown in the US will have some impact on the UK, the direct trade affect will be relatively small.

Unlike the experience of many other countries, loan portfolio of the economy increased over the past year; banking supervision framework was improved and financial stability was further strengthened. Although non-performing loans increased, the Albanian banking system, responding to strengthened prudential regulations of the Bank of Albania and our initiatives to enhance the transparency of its balance, remains solid, with adequate capital and liquidity to support the economic development. *** I will proceed with a more detailed analysis of the foregoing issues, focusing on Bank of Albania’s main directions. ***  1. Economic and financial highlights for 2011  GDP expanded by 3.1% in 2011. Likewise in 2010, external demand was the main driver to economic growth, though its impact pursued a moderating trend due to the slowdown in partner countries’ economies. On the other hand, domestic demand remained relatively sluggish. Consumption and private investments remained under the impact of consumers and private businesses. These significant aggregate demand components did not reveal any strong signs of recovery over the past year, despite the improving financial conditions. The sluggish consumer spending reflected the continuation of consumers’ high propensity to save and the heightened uncertainty surrounding the future. On the other hand, the presence of spare production capacities and tight lending conditions gave rise to a slow performance of private investments. Judging from the distribution of  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  credit flows, these investments were mainly allocated to industry and services sectors, which benefited the most from the external demand performance.
Tarisa Watanagase: Japan-Thailand – partnership in prosperity Dinner talk by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, to the Japanese Chamber of Commerce, Bangkok, 25 March 2008. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to thank the Japanese Chamber of Commerce for the invitation to speak before you tonight. It has been a year since I gave a talk at a similar function held by the Chamber. I remember we had a lively exchange of ideas then, and I am glad you keep in touch. With long presence in Thailand, the Japanese Chamber has played an active role in promoting common understanding between Thai government agencies and the Japanese business community here. Japan-Thailand economic relationship is both special in breadth and depth. Even a casual observer cannot fail to notice this prosperous partnership. Trade between our nations has doubled in value over the past 5 years; that’s roughly 14 per cent increase per year. On the investment front, Japan’s annual direct investment in Thailand has been steady at close to 3 billion US dollars over the past few years, considerable uncertainties notwithstanding. Japanese financial service providers are lively participants in the Thai financial system. Ladies and gentlemen, Much has happened since we last met. The story of financial disruption is playing out in the US and reverberating across the world. Oil prices have increased by more than 50 per cent.

With regard to our exchange rate policy, the Bank of Thailand has used the managed floating approach for some time now. Our principle is to let the exchange rate reflect the fundamentals of the economy relative to our trading partners and competitors. In the short run, international price competitiveness depends on 2 things: 1. the appreciation of the Thai baht vis-à-vis a basket of currencies of our trading partners and competitors; and 2. the increase in production cost of a Thai company relative to that of our trading partners and competitors. For example, given the same appreciation path of two competing currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar, if production cost of a Thai company rises beyond that of its foreign competitors, then it loses price competitiveness. Generally, production cost rises with inflation. And so, keeping inflation low helps to lower relative cost increase for Thai exporters and boosts their price competitiveness. The exchange rate that the Bank of Thailand manages is that which represents price competitiveness; it is called the real effective exchange rate. Let me give you a specific example: It is well known that even though the baht has gained against the US dollar, it has been appreciating in line with regional currencies. From the beginning of 2007 to early March 2008, the real effective exchange rate of China has  BIS Review 33/2008  3  appreciated by roughly 8 per cent while India has gained by 5.4 per cent.
Government has also set a financial access target of 50 percent by the end of 2009 under the Performance Assessment Framework (PAF). The holding of this Conference is therefore, consistent with our aspirations to increase levels of financial access in the country. As earlier alluded, the aim of this Forum was to bring together practitioners and regulators of microfinance to learn from each other in order deepen and broaden financial services provision. In this regard, the forum has a number of eminent persons who will share with us their unique experiences. 2  BIS Review 46/2009  Ladies and Gentlemen: This FIA programme is customized and among the issues that will be addressed include the following: 1. Emerging best practice in microfinance;  2. Self-help group models for microfinance, which may be viable for countries in our region;  3. Microfinance product development knowledge and risk management strategies; and  4. Specific micro-credit practices for agricultural-related businesses, which is relevant for most our countries’ strategies to diversify into agriculture. Distinguished Participants: We consider the timing of this workshop appropriate given the impact of the on-going global financial crises. I therefore, call upon all of you to take advantage of this unique opportunity to learn and share experiences, so that we can come up with efficient and effective ways of advancing financial inclusion in our respective countries.

The unrest in the international financial markets in the wake of the US subprime crisis has also led to an increase in the price of risk, which means for instance that it has become more expensive to borrow. In this way the effects can be compared to the effects of tighter monetary policy. But apart from the changed pricing, the uncertainty has also led to greater caution in general. This also has a certain dampening effect on economic activity. In Sweden, the effects of the unrest in the financial markets have been more limited than in, for instance, the United Kingdom, the United States and Germany. Over the past weeks there appears to have been some stabilisation. But the US mortgage market may present further surprises. If, for instance, house prices were to fall more than expected, this could once again increase the unrest in the markets and lead to rising interest rates and falling stock prices, not only in the United States. In a slightly longer perspective, this can also slow down growth in the US economy and even have contagion effects in Europe and the rest of the world. BIS Review 112/2007  5  …but strong developments here at home If one looks at developments in the Swedish economy, our assessment in September was that it was actually stronger than in June. Here the labour market and productivity deserve special attention. These are two of the most important factors, which determine how cost pressures and thereby inflation will develop.
On the other hand, some of the factors which affect preferences for desired saving and investment (demographics and the income distribution, for example), are likely to lift the sustainable level of debt and asset prices. Credit spreads and credit supply The interest rate charged to borrowers and by which risky assets are valued reflects more than just the risk free rate. It includes the spread above the risk free rate charged by the lender to reflect the costs and risk of lending. If reductions in the spread above the risk free interest rate are long lasting, they too will raise both the sustainable level of debt relative to income and the sustainable level of asset prices. In the run up to the recent crisis, the spread over the risk free rate fell. For example, lending spreads on new UK mortgage lending fell from around 100bps in around 2000 to a low of around 30bps in 2007. More generally, shifts in credit supply may occur through increased bank competition over nonprice factors (such as increasing the availability of credit to borrowers with high LTIs and LTVs), or because of regulatory and other policy changes that affect banks’ ability to lend. These shifts in credit supply may appear as direct increases in the credit to GDP ratio but show up less obviously in lending rates. Such shifts may show up as increases in deposit rates rather than falls in lending rates if they affect competition for retail and wholesale funds.

Since joining the EU and until 2018, Romania had accessed more than 21 billion EUR as EU funds that contributed to development and bridged the gap of convergence with developed economies in the EU. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  NBR’s recent research on the impact of EU funds on Romanian economy shows that an increase by 1 percentage point of GDP in structural and cohesion funds has a short term eﬀect of up to 0.7 percentage points on economic growth and a medium-term effect of up to 3 percentage points1. Thus, significant efforts should be made to guarantee that Romania improves the efficiency of EU funds absorption. In order to achieve that, Romania needs sound policies oriented towards macroeconomic balance and safeguarding financial stability. Foreign direct investments are also essential for economic growth. The picture here is mixed. During the second half of the year 2018 and in 2019, persistent pressures on global economic growth and subsequent downward revisions of expected growth rate impacted the investments and the reallocation of capital. Constant trade tensions, terrorism and geopolitical uncertainties are causing a slowdown in economies across the world. At the same time, new technologies have disrupted global value chains and the classic employment model, while new climate change related risks have emerged in the financial sector. On the other part, investing in companies with strong environmental, social and governance (ESG) policies, in green bonds and in new technologies supporting the digital economy, will contribute to achieving the Paris Agreement objectives and a sustainable development.
Secondly, there has to be sufficient immunity against the boom and bust of financial cycle. We have seen many financial crises over the years. The Global Financial Crisis, whose total magnitude of economic costs are still being tallied is the latest example. As the financial cycle is one of the main drivers of financial instability, taking action to counteract pro-cyclical behaviours and reduce potential systemic risk build-up is necessary. The Basel III framework of pro-cyclical capital buffer and systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) capital surcharge are among the first initiatives by a global standard setter. Having good buffers in place will provide the financial system with an immunity against the large swing of financial cycle and financial volatility, as going forward, the potential of policy normalization in advanced economies and yield snapback could trigger capital reversal and foreign exchange liquidity squeeze in many emerging countries. Changes in regulations and a greater emphasis on financial stability by policy makers, however, is only half of the solution. Equally important are the roles of commercial bankers who contribute directly to the stability of the financial system. Banks need to remain vigilant and look through the cycle while assessing credit risk and building up buffers. Buffers such as provisions and capital have to be built-up during good times to absorb any losses during rough times. In short, decisions need to be based more on long-term views rather than short term views. Basing decisions on long-term views is an important factor for commercial banks’ practices.

Close collaboration is a win-win strategy I believe will truly benefit us all. The benefits of integration must be felt by every part of the society. Ladies and Gentlemen. The future of ASEAN as a region rests within your hands. I wish you all a successful and fruitful conference. Thank you. 6