samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
10  For instance, the 2nd 2012-2014 Employment and Collective Bargaining Agreement, signed at the start of 2012, set out wage recommendations that excluded the energy component from any wage settlements in the event, as is currently the case, of rising energy prices. 9  makes it possible to estimate how a reaction in other domestic prices and in private wages, in line with the direct impact of higher energy prices on the general price level, might affect activity and employment. If higher energy prices are fully passed through, the overall adverse impact on activity and employment, in terms of the divergence from the current projections, could be around 1.5 pp in 2024. Moreover, real disposable household income would decline, owing to the fall in employment and a further increase in inflation. Conclusions I will end by highlighting three key messages I would like you to take away from my speech at this critical historical juncture in which the attack on Ukraine could represent, as well as an extraordinary human tragedy, a serious threat to the European social and political project. First, in a variety of ways, the war will undermine the gradual post-pandemic recovery under way, though we can for the time being only hazard a guess at the scale of the fallout. As is only to be expected, the impact will depend on the severity and duration of the conflict.

But when we look ahead, it is very probable that this will no longer apply; the rate of increase in the CPIX is expected to be lower than the rate of increase in the CPI for a fairly long period to come. Let me go into more detail as to why this is the case. When the CPIX is calculated, mortgage interest expenditure for home-owners is excluded. Mortgage interest expenditure for home-owners in the CPI is calculated as a product of two indices: an interest rate index and a capital stock index. The interest rate index consists of an average of interest rates on mortgages, from variable interest rates to interest rates with a fixed duration of eight years. The capital stock index, on the other hand, measures the acquisition value of the housing stock financed by the mortgages. But with the calculation method used by Statistics Sweden the rising house prices will only affect the capital stock index when the houses change owners. Even if house prices are increasing substantially, this will only have a limited impact on the capital stock index in the short term. After all, it is only a small percentage of houses that are bought and sold every year. On the other hand, an increase in house prices affects the index for a long period to come. If house prices increased, say, twenty years ago, this will still have some effect even on today's index.
In some advanced economies, such as Spain (shown in light green in Chart 1) and the United Kingdom (in purple), output plummeted more than 20% within weeks of the first lockdown. The sharp increase in uncertainty caused substantial turmoil in the financial markets. In March last year, major equity markets, such as the S&P 500 (shown in blue in Chart 2) and the Stoxx Europe 600 (in yellow), dropped 30% and more in a matter of weeks. At one point, investors were forced to sell even their safest and most liquid assets, such as government bonds, in order to rebalance portfolios and raise cash. As you can see in Chart 3, due to this ‘dash for cash’, at the height of the panic in March 2020, yields on government bonds, which Page 2/10  typically serve as safe havens, spiked in spite of the very negative risk sentiment. In the foreign exchange markets, however, traditional safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and the Swiss franc appreciated, as expected. In response to these safe-haven flows, the SNB had to step up its efforts to prevent a sudden and detrimental appreciation of the Swiss franc. The red line on Chart 4 shows the nominal trade-weighted index of the franc since the start of 2020. With the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the Swiss franc came under increasing pressure. To stem an excessive appreciation of the franc, the SNB bought foreign currency worth 90 billion Swiss francs in the first half of 2020 alone.

COVID-19 as catalyst for digitalisation and implications for SNB There are two trends of particular relevance to the SNB that I would like to highlight here. The first, most visible move towards a digital economy is the changing payments landscape, with an increasing use of mobile payments. A second apparent trend is big data and automation – particularly involving artificial intelligence. In addition to these two trends, cyber risk is also growing. Let me start with the changing payments landscape. Changing payments landscape The pandemic has boosted online shopping and contactless retail payments. Because of the measures to reduce interpersonal contact, such as shop closures and limited shopping hours, e-commerce has gained in importance. While cash remains important in Switzerland, the use of cashless payment methods has increased. The SNB conducted a survey on payment methods in the autumn of 2020. This will give us more insight into these trends. The details of the survey will be published this summer. Monitoring changing payment habits is important for the SNB because facilitating and securing cashless payments is one of its statutory tasks. Since the creation of the Swiss Interbank Clearing (SIC) payment system, the SNB has fulfilled its mandate as system manager and commissioning party of the SIC system. The SIC system – also referred to as the Page 5/10  ‘strong core’ of the Swiss payments ecosystem – is the central payment system for both interbank and retail payments in Swiss francs.
Monetary policy decisions are taken, at the centre, by the Governing Council, but are implemented by the national central banks in a closely co-ordinated way. Strategy of the single monetary policy The Maastricht Treaty clearly defines the ultimate objective of the single monetary policy, that is to say maintaining price stability. However, for this it is essential to have a clear definition of price stability: we define it as a year-on-year increase in the overall Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) of below 2% in the whole euro area. Bearing in mind this objective, our monetary policy strategy is based on two “pillars”. We have first assigned a key role to the monetary aggregate M3. This “pillar” is based on a reference value which we set at 4.5% for the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3. The  1  concept of a reference value does not imply a commitment on the part of the Eurosystem to automatically correct deviations in monetary growth in the short term. Naturally, we also follow the counterparts of M3 closely, that is to say the sources of money creation, and especially lending to the economy, the evolution of government finance and capital flows with the rest of the world. However, it is common sense to say that monetary developments alone do not allow for a comprehensive assessment of the risks to price stability.

This is why we have defined a second “pillar” for our monetary policy strategy, consisting of a broad range of variables that act as leading indicators of the outlook for euro area price developments. In fact, we consider the maintenance of price stability over the medium term to be the Eurosystem’s greatest contribution to fostering an environment which is favourable to sustainable growth and employment in the longer run. And, it is also its greatest contribution to limiting unnecessary volatility of output and employment in the short run. The relatively low yields on long-term euro-denominated bonds confirm investors’ confidence in the new currency. This was not the case four or five years ago, before the setting up of the euro, when financial markets were convinced that the euro would be the weighted arithmetic mean of its legacy currencies and would not inherit the level of confidence and credibility of the strongest of these, such as the Deutsche mark, the Dutch guilder, or the French franc. The euro has actually been founded on a benchmarking principle, not on a convergence towards an average. That may explain why the euro’s interest rates were the lowest in Europe from the outset. Successful technical framework However, even the best monetary strategy needs an efficient technical framework. The launch of the euro on the financial markets, on 1 January 1999, has also been an indisputable success from a technical point of view.
M R Pridiyathorn Devakula: Challenges and opportunities facing the Thai futures market Remarks by Mr M R Pridiyathorn Devakula, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the gala dinner hosted by The Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand, Bangkok, 23 February 2006. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a privilege for me to be here today amongst distinguished personalities from the banking and finance industry. First of all, I would like to thank the Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand for inviting me to address this distinguished audience. I have been asked to share some thoughts with you on the challenges and opportunities that I see facing Thai futures market going forward. Thailand has been one of the world’s leading producers of agricultural products. Thailand has always been top-ranked in rice, tapioca starch, sugar and natural rubber production. In fact, Thailand has been the world’s largest rice exporter for more than a decade. Our rice export accounts for no less than one quarter of total world’s rice exports. Likewise, we supply more than one-third of the world’s total natural rubber production. With roughly half of our labour force being employed in the agricultural industry and with rice alone earning almost 2 billion U.S. dollars last year, the importance of the sector towards Thai economy cannot be overstressed. However, unique characteristics of agricultural products are that of long supply adjustment lags and inelastic demand. Prices therefore tend to exhibit inherently high volatility.

SPEECH DATE:  08/12/2017  SPEAKER:  Governor of the Riksbank Stefan Ingves  VENUE:  Swedish House of Finance, Stockholm  SVERIGES RIKSBANK SE-103 37 Stockholm (Brunkebergstorg 11) Tel +46 8 787 00 00 Fax +46 8 21 05 31 registratorn@riksbank.se www.riksbank.se  Do we need an e-krona? Do we need digital cash – an e-krona as the Riksbank calls it? This is a question currently being analysed and subjected to lively debate in the central bank world. It is scarcely surprising that there is so much interest in this question, given that it covers all of a central bank’s areas of activity – the responsibility for a safe and efficient payment market, monetary policy and the task of maintaining financial stability. The question also touches on almost philosophical musings as to why the need for central banks arose once upon a time. What was then needed was a public institution that created a standard method of payment that the general public could rely on. Several centuries have passed since then, but the same need probably remains. This is why the Riksbank wants to investigate whether an e-krona could be the solution to provide the general public with continued access to central bank money even when Sweden has stopped using cash. Banknotes and coins abandoned Various agents in society are approaching the subject of digital money from slightly different perspectives.
So that is good news, if it turns out to be true, for people who wish to have good things done to the country. On a more mundane but essential matter, EDI is now operating between the importers, exporters and the Customs, the Ports as well as the Department of Commerce, and Office of Maritime Promotion Commission with rapid linkage into other government offices scheduled for the rest of the year. This will reduce costs and enhance competitiveness of delivery of Thai exporters, as it is so important to Thai exporters who export to areas where just-in-time production is the fad, in the leading economies. In the government, many advance institutes such as textile and gemmology and so on are being set up to enhance competitiveness of our producers, and civil service reform is beginning at least in the area of the total number of civil servants. 3  BIS Review 29/2000  The 30,000 people retired early are to be replaced only by 6,000 new recruits into the system who will reduce costs and bring in a newness to a very old and tired administration. One wishes one could have true reform where the way people are replaced throughout the ranks is also changed, or where incentives to work are changed, but I guess one has to start somewhere, and downsizing is better than nothing at all, and perhaps the most difficult part of a government programme.

It should be emphasised that the impact of Asia’ s economic and financial integration, would extend beyond its own region to other parts of the world. Today, the economic and financial linkages between the emerging economies have gained significant traction and are likely to continue. All the issues that I had mentioned earlier would only be significantly realized if we have a seamless payment system that links markets as one. As part of our continuing journey in deepening and strengthening our financial markets in Asia and Malaysia in particular, Bank Negara Malaysia is pleased to be a party to the launching of the Pilot Platform for Cross-Border Investment and Settlement of Debt Securities, jointly with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Euroclear Bank. This initiative marks an important milestone in our vision towards deeper financial integration. The rollout of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  this platform will provide investors and market intermediaries with more efficient and cost-effective cross-border access to the bond markets in Hong Kong and Malaysia. Over the years, the bond market in Asia has expanded significantly. To date, Asia’ s share of the global bond market has increased by almost four-fold since the pre-Asian financial crisis. In tandem with the growth of the bond markets, the sukuk market in the region has also evolved as an important avenue for international fund raising and investment activities, generating significant cross-border flows. Malaysia has been an important part of this development with well developed bond and sukuk markets.
At the very top end of the market, there are now over a hundred Michelin starred restaurants compared with less than thirty in my youth. The past decade has seen a huge investment in both hotels and visitor attractions. Three of the top five fee paying visitor attractions in the UK are less than five years old, with the wonderful London Eye now comfortably outstripping that doughty old trouper, the Tower of London. London doesn’t have it all its own way of course - the ground breaking Eden Project now comes in at a well deserved number three. Tourism has become more than good business. From the Welsh Valleys to the East end of London, it is increasingly seen as a catalyst for economic regeneration. With the success of the Manchester Commonwealth games, and Liverpool’s ambitious plans for 2008 as European City of Culture, not to mention London’s Olympic bid, there’s no shortage of high profile events and projects to provide inspiration for the future. Your industry is still a major employer, of course. You must provide more jobs than the NHS and the Armed Forces put together. I’d be the last person to underrate the importance of entry level and seasonal jobs; but you need highly skilled people too. So it’s good news that thousands of people are already on tourism and hospitality related FE and work based courses. Your new Sector Skills Council will provide an even sharper focus on defining and meeting your industry’s training needs.

Rachel Lomax: Staying ahead of the curve - remarks on recent UK monetary policy Speech by Ms Rachel Lomax, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, to the Annual Luncheon of the British Hospitality Association, London, 1 July 2004. *  *  *  It is a great pleasure to be here today. Judging by the capacity crowd, the businesses you represent are in pretty good spirits. What better way to start than by thanking you for your excellent hospitality. And what better place to celebrate an important double anniversary. Because that’s what today is, for me. It is exactly a year since I joined the Bank of England as Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy. And it is forty years, almost to the day, since I started my first job. I was a waitress: in a famous seaside town - the one that’s noted for fresh air and fun. It wasn’t much of a job. But then I wasn’t much of an employee, having no marketable skills, but plenty of attitude. I learnt how to carry several plates at the same time and a lot of interesting new words; and the job paid for a memorable holiday in Greece. Looking back on it, I’m sorry I left without giving notice: though I’m not sure my boss was. My work habits have improved immeasurably since those far off days. And so I think has British hospitality. The ‘eating out experience’ has certainly been transformed.
The last time petroleum investment showed a sharp increase, in 1997/1998, growth was substantially stronger than had been assumed. An upturn occurred in the Norwegian economy as a whole at the same time. The unexpected increase in petroleum investment contributed to an economic upturn that was substantially stronger than projected. If oil prices rise further or remain at the current high level for a long period, petroleum investment may again amplify the cyclical upturn to a greater extent than projected. Inflation among our trading partners is expected to be low in the next few years. It is likely that high prices for oil and other commodities will continue to push up prices for goods where wages account for a small portion of total costs. On the other hand, growth among most of our main trading partners will probably be too low for idle resources to be utilised in the next few years. Particularly in the euro area, wage growth is likely to be low as a result of moderate economic growth and high unemployment. Overall, it would appear that external price impulses via consumer goods to the Norwegian economy will remain negative this year and next. There is no indication that growth in imports from low-cost countries is declining. For example, China’s share of footwear imports to Norway increased by 4 percentage points to 20 per cent in 2004. The share of clothing imports increased by 2 percentage points to 32 per cent.

I would once again like to thank the EU Delegation for enabling the implementation of this project with the hope for further support in providing subsequent project for the implementation of the recommendations, and thank the other guests for their presence. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
After it became clear in August that Russia would not, in practice, be servicing its foreign debt, market participants became highly riskaverse. The unrest also spread to European financial markets and to Norway. Investors moved their funds to Germany, the US and Switzerland. The currencies of countries with less liquid and more volatile financial markets, such as Norway and Sweden, depreciated. The Norwegian krone depreciated from around 101 against the ECU index at the beginning of the year to 115 in October, the weakest rate since the objective of exchange rate stability against the ECU was adopted. Norges Bank responded to the sharp depreciation of the krone by raising its key rates in several steps through 1998. Following the last increase in interest rates on 25 August, the sight deposit rate stood at 8.00 per cent, 4.50 percentage points higher than at the beginning of 1998. Kjell Storvik stated a few days later that "The interest rate level which has now been established should, in addition to directly contributing to stabilising the krone exchange rate, dampen price expectations, which in turn implies that expectations of a further depreciation will gradually recede." During the autumn, it appeared that the effects of the depreciation of the krone on inflation would not be as great as assumed originally. First, the krone had depreciated less against an average of trading partners' currencies than against the ECU. Second, price inflation in the global economy fell. At the same time, it appeared that the turnaround in the real economy would be considerable.

The interest rate influences inflation indirectly via domestic demand for goods and services and via its effect on the exchange rate. When interest rates rise, it becomes more profitable for households to save, and consumption will therefore be postponed. Similarly, borrowing becomes more expensive, and investment will decline as a result. Lower demand then curbs the rise in prices and wages. Higher interest rates make it more attractive to invest in NOK and borrow in foreign currency. Therefore, higher interest rates normally lead to an appreciation of the krone. This makes imported goods cheaper. In addition, a stronger krone reduces activity, profitability and the ability to pay in the internationally exposed sector. Major economies such as the US, Germany and France are struggling with stagnation and fears of recession. Sluggish developments have led many countries to set very low interest rates in an attempt to stimulate growth. The business cycles in Norway and other countries have been desynchronised. While the turnaround abroad took place two years ago, the Norwegian economy continued to show a high level of activity. Towards the end of the upturn, the economy was facing labour shortages, higher wage growth and a sharp increase in household consumption and debt. Interest rates had to be kept at a high level in  BIS Review 23/2003  1  Norway. This led to a widening of the interest rate differential against other countries. The main explanation for the wide interest rate differential is that interest rates abroad are at a historically low level.