samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
For example, individuals obtaining what are known as entry-level jobs, new start jobs or sheltered employment through the Swedish Public Employment Service are counted as employed under Statistics Sweden’s classification, while those participating in vocational training courses (for example) are counted as unemployed. These classifications are not selfevident. While attending these programmes, the participants are probably less active in their job-seeking. If an unemployed person stops looking for work while participating in a programme, perhaps we could question whether this person should still be considered to be unemployed. So actual unemployment can be measured in different ways: including or excluding full-time students who are looking for work and can work; including or excluding individuals participating in labour market policy programmes. It is unclear which of these definitions is the most relevant measure of welfare and which measure should be used in the monetary policy analysis. Covariation with economic activity… Regardless of how we choose to define and measure actual unemployment, experience shows that it clearly covaries with economic activity, albeit with a certain time lag. At the start of an upturn in economic activity, the number of hours worked and employment normally increase after a time lag, compared with GDP. This is reflected by the increase of output. It is due to companies initially using existing personnel to a greater extent. In downturns, the reverse is common: companies retain their personnel as long as it remains uncertain whether the downturn will be long-lasting, meaning that output temporarily declines.

Figure 1 Unemployment calculated according to Okun’s law7 Per cent of labour force 14  14 Outcome  13  13  Okun 1 (differences, 1980-) Okun 2 (differences, 2001-)  12  12  11  11  10  10  9  9  8  8  7  7  6  6  5  5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  Note: The difference version of Okun’s law captures the relationship between GDP growth and the change in unemployment. The figure shows unemployment forecasts based on estimates of this relationship in two different time periods. Source: The Riksbank  According to the historical relationship between changes in GDP and changes in unemployment, the change in GDP between the first quarter of 2009 and the third quarter of 2011 should have led unemployment to increase by 1.5–2.5 percentage points above the actual increase. The functioning of the labour market is decisive. Actual unemployment is not only influenced by economic activity, but also by structural factors that shape the functioning of the labour market. These structural factors influence both the decision to enter the labour market and companies’ decisions to hire and fire.
In addition, in order to ensure that there is enough recapitalisation capacity in resolution, one-third of the minimum TLAC requirement is expected to be covered with instruments other than CET1 (that is, debt). It is important to bear in mind that the TLAC establishes a common minimum global requirement and that national authorities have the right at any time to apply higher requirements in their jurisdictions. The TLAC is a new prudential requirement that has different objectives than the capital ratio. Regulatory capital is mainly to absorb losses in a going-concern situation, whereas TLAC is meant to ensure loss absorption in gone-concern situations (that is, beyond the point of nonviability). I should add that, in a resolution context, the location of loss absorbing resources becomes very important and, for this reason, the TLAC standard gives guidance on how these resources should be distributed within the banking group. This highlights another important difference between the capital framework and TLAC: the location of resources. While the former is required on a consolidated basis for the group as a whole, TLAC is required where resolution takes effect and where critical functions are performed. One of the most complex issues in the design of the TLAC was the need to ensure consistency between the two main banking resolution strategies: the Single Point of Entry and the Multiple Point of Entry.

Small companies may find it particularly difficult to change bank, as a long-term relationship between the company and the bank is an important part of the bank's credit assessment. These factors mean that few customers change banks; only 14 per cent of the population have changed one or more banking commitments during the past three-year period. The fact that bank customers do not readily change bank may mean that there is less price pressure on certain products than would otherwise be the case. However, regulations and tax legislation may also have the effect of subduing competition. One area that is worth particular attention is saving in funds. Although competition appears to be good for new savings, there is a considerable deadlock effect resulting from regulations on capital gains tax. This helps dampen competitive pressure. One area that is still an object for old-fashioned, national limitations is cross-border payments. Despite electronic systems and the fact that the EU is supposed to comprise a single market, substantial costs are involved in transferring payments between banks in the different countries. 11  This applies if one compares with other profit-making banks. The non profit-making banks, for instance, co-operative banks, which are common in Germany and France, have even lower profit margins. The margins are calculated as the difference between the interest rate offered to consumers and the interest the bank receives if they invest the money without risk, e.g. in treasury bonds.
But even excluding those price increases, inflation had moved up on account of, for example, a growing tendency for wage costs to rise too rapidly. With a quick global economic recovery, there was a risk of the Swedish economy becoming excessively strained too soon in the upward phase, so that inflation would start rising again. During the summer, however, the perspective has changed and it looks as though the recovery in the world economy has recently slowed. Probable explanations for this are the widespread financial turbulence and the concern about the mounting security policy risks. Most of the evidence therefore points at present to the international economic upturn being slower and more protracted. The Swedish economy, which, as I said, has coped fairly well to date, cannot of course ultimately remain immune to developments in the rest of the world. Pronounced stock market fall Thus, the developments in financial markets have heightened the uncertainty about the future paths of consumption and investment, both in the rest of the world and in Sweden. If the international stock  BIS Review 59/2002  1  exchanges were to go on falling or the effects of the decline to date turn out to be more extensive, the scenario for the Swedish economy could become considerably less favourable. A closer look at stock markets shows that since the high in spring 2000 there has been a major fall around the world.

In both cases, the National Bank would react with adequate means. To conclude my remarks, I would like to reiterate what role the exchange rate plays in our monetary-policy decision-making process. We live in a system with flexible exchange rates. Such a system is very advantageous for Switzerland, but once in a while exchange rate fluctuations have to be reckoned with. We are currently going through a period characterised by a strong Swiss franc. In the past, there have always been phases during which the Swiss franc tended to be very strong. Experience has also shown, though, that there have always been corrective phases as well. It is the National Bank's responsibility to maintain price stability in the medium term, thus creating a favourable environment for the development of all sectors of the economy. For monetary policy, the exchange rate is an extremely important measure, as it influences the price level directly via import prices as well as indirectly via capacity utilisation in the export sector, and thus via economic growth. Particularly the last nine months exemplify the strong influence of the exchange rate on Switzerland's monetary policy. We always neutralised the tightening of monetary conditions, which was brought about by the appreciation of the Swiss franc, and rendered Swiss franc investments less attractive. We are aware of the fact that these measures do not provide relief to all sectors of the economy at the same time or to the same extent.
Since the “interest rate account” follows from a specific model, the exact decomposition is model-dependent and should thus be interpreted as a model-based illustration rather than a precise description of the Executive Board’s reaction pattern. Notwithstanding this reservation, the “interest rate account” serves several purposes. First, it gives information about the reaction function. Second, it provides a compact summary of the Monetary Policy Report. Third, it is a tool of communicating commitment. Norges Bank aims at influencing expectations in order to stabilize inflation. In this respect, our policy has elements of commitment. The interest rate forecast should reflect economic news and not re-optimisation of monetary policy. With an “interest rate account”, the public is better able to check whether the central bank honours past commitments. Let me turn to the criteria underlying the interest rate forecast and reaction function. Among the few central banks that publish interest rate forecasts, it is common to communicate these in quite general terms. 3 When formulating the criteria, there is a trade-off between being too general, which does not provide very much information, and being too specific, which might overly restrict policymakers’ room for manoeuvre and be less robust to changes in the economic landscape. The Bank has developed a set of criteria for an appropriate interest rate path. The criteria serve both the purpose of communicating the reasoning behind the interest rate path to the public and of providing an agenda for the Board discussion, which makes it easier to decide on a particular path.

One of the important pillars of this development has been the construction of benchmark indices. Indeed the launch of Asian Bond Fund 2 is accompanied by the development of benchmark indices that are fully replicated by the fund manager of each individual country sub fund, as well as in the umbrella Pan Asian Index Fund. Meanwhile, the Islamic Sukuk international market's expansion is gaining momentum. Wider acceptance by investors and greater awareness of issuers of this alternative structure has seen increased issuances over the past few years. In the sovereign markets; Malaysia, Qatar and Bahrain have come to the market with Sukuks. Supranational institutions such as the Islamic Development Bank, World Bank and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) have also ventured into issuing Sukuks, with the latter two institutions issuing the ringgit-denominated instruments in our domestic bond market. The first USD1 billion-issue size was launched in 2004 by the Government of Dubai. In 2005, it is estimated that a total of more than USD5 billion of Sukuk is in the pipeline globally in a range of currencies. The market is indeed growing. Ladies and Gentlemen, The introduction of a benchmark index can act as a catalyst for a more rapid pace of development of the financial market and the recognition of a new asset class. The conditions are timely for the crafting of a benchmark index to further spur the growth of the Islamic financial and capital market to meet the needs of a larger pool of Muslim savers and investors.
Christian Noyer: Why the Economic and Monetary Union needs a banking union Address by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Lamfalussy Lectures Conference “The euro dilemma: inside or outside?”, Budapest, 31 January 2014. *  *  *  Dear Governors, Ladies and gentlemen, Before I begin with my address, I would like to thank very warmly Governor Matolcsy for having invited me. I would also like to congratulate him and the Magyar Nemzeti Bank for the very prestigious and interesting conference you organized. My address is about the latest step of European integration, namely the banking union. As you are aware, these past 14 years of monetary union have brought huge benefits: the purchasing power of more than 300 million users of the single currency has been more protected than ever thanks to stable and moderate inflation; the currency risk between euro area countries has been eliminated, helping to foster growth and maintain stability; and the single currency has simplified and stimulated both trade and labour mobility. However, even with all these benefits, the euro area still did not manage to escape the crisis, and one of the most important lessons from this period was that monetary union was insufficiently complete and coherent. In 2012, a consensus was reached over how we could resolve this failing. The answer was crystal clear: Europe needed to move towards a banking union.

Øystein Olsen: Launch of the new 50-krone and 500-krone banknotes Speech by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at RS Noatun, Horten, 18 October 2018. * * * More information on the banknotes are available on Norges Bank's website. Good morning. It is a great pleasure to be here in Horten and Noatun to mark this important occasion for Norges Bank. On 30 May 2017, we went to Lofoten to launch the new 100-krone and 200-krone banknotes – the first two denominations in Norway’s new banknote series. Today, we are in Horten to celebrate the launch of the new 50-krone and 500-krone banknotes. So why did we choose Horten? This is an easy question to answer. The primary motif of the new 500-krone banknote is a rescue lifeboat. Since its foundation in 1891, the Norwegian Society for Sea Rescue has saved more than 6 000 lives at sea. Through their tremendous efforts, largely based on volunteer work, the Norwegian Society for Sea Rescue has contributed to making Norway’s coastline safer and more prosperous. Many of the lifeboat crews are trained where we are today, here at RS Noatun. These crews are on stand-by around the clock to assist people and vessels along the entire Norwegian coast. The boat you can see on the front of the 500-krone banknote is the lifeboat RS 14 Stavanger, launched in 1901.
The non-oil sector exports were valued at about $ billion in 2006 and constituted almost 6.0 percent of total GDP and 13.2 percent of non-oil GDP. During 2006, the national economy continued its remarkable growth for the fourth consecutive year, especially in the non-oil sector which grew by 6.2 percent following its growth rate of 5.2 percent in 2005. The non-oil industrial sector was the fastest growing sector of the economy recording a robust growth of 10.1 percent during the preceding year. The sector has continued its robust growth during the current year. Due to higher economic growth and receipt of higher than anticipated revenues, the fiscal position of the government has improved substantially in recent years. The budget surpluses since 2003 have enabled the government to reduce its domestic debt sharply and increase its expenditure on infrastructure and social sectors. The ratio of domestic debt to GDP has declined from 82 percent in 2003 to 27.9 percent in 2006 which was reflected positively on our public finance and macroeconomic stability. These trends are likely to continue against the oil revenue cushion and fiscal discipline along with continuous expansion of the economy. The foregoing policy initiatives, combined with the recent budgetary surpluses have enabled us to launch a number of key development projects that are designed to develop the county's physical and social infrastructure, especially spending on education and training, diversifying the economy, creating jobs and enhancing growth prospects.

The ECB has also made its liquidity provision facilities more accessible to the banking sector, in terms both of cost and volume, and it has relaxed the requirements made of assets pledged as collateral, in order to smooth financing to households, firms and the self-employed. All these measures have been effective in alleviating the financial tensions generated by the crisis. These tensions took the form of a strong rise in sovereign and corporate debt yields, which were then largely reversed. The ECB’s action has also helped keep bank lending flows 5  to companies notably robust in recent months and contributed to their cost holding at low levels. Also crucial for these dynamics have been the government-implemented public guarantee programmes for bank lending. The ECB measures have further provided considerable room for manoeuvre for national authorities. In this second phase of the crisis, in which the recovery in economic activity is, as I said, incomplete, fragile and uneven across sectors in countries, actual inflation and inflation expectations are holding at very low levels. And it is to be expected in the medium term that the weakness of demand will continue exerting downward pressure on prices. Against this background, on the ECB Governing Council we have made it clear that a high degree of monetary accommodation is needed to support the recovery and safeguard our price stability objective. Specifically, we have reiterated our commitment to do what it takes to support the euro area economy in these extremely difficult circumstances.
When inflation is expected to be high, the real interest rate can be made very low, but this also means that, as inflation expectations fall, the scope for cutting the real interest rate also decreases. The fact that inflation expectations were anchored around the target of two per cent meant that the low nominal interest rates of 2009 and 2010 (see Figure 2) gave households and companies very low real interest rates and supported the recovery of the Swedish economy. With lower inflation expectations, the same interest rate policy would have had a less powerful stimulatory effect and that would probably have meant lower employment and even lower inflation in recent years. Inflation expectations are thus of vital importance for how expansionary monetary policy is and how expansionary it can be made when the Swedish economy is subjected to new severe stresses. The stimulus provided by a really low real interest rate can make it possible to avoid more prolonged low interest rate periods with the drawbacks in the form of rising indebtedness and exaggerated risk-taking that we are now concerned about. But if inflation expectations are too low, not even the lowest possible repo rate may be enough to push the real interest rate down to the desired level. To sum up, it is thus of great benefit to the Swedish economy if households and companies, savers and investors, expect a future rate of inflation that is on a reasonably low level and that their expectations more or less correspond.

In its featured plenary and multi-track programmes which include the Regulators Forum, the International Shariah Scholars Forum, the Global Islamic Liquidity Management Conference and the Global Islamic Finance Taxation Forum, a new highlight is the Bridging Economies Forum that aims to discuss the Islamic finance prospects and opportunities across regions, and to explore possible market linkages that can be generated through Islamic finance. Several important signings of MoUs will also be taking place during this Forum, highlighting increased commitment and international cooperation. Let me now conclude with an extension of our appreciation to the panel of distinguished speakers for their contribution to GIFF 2012. I would also like to once again, express our gratitude to the Honourable Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Turkey, His Excellency Mr. Ali Babacan for being with us today to speak at this event. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
“And it builds on an established monetary policy doctrine that has gained prominence not least through its successful adherence by the Bundesbank for several decades”, Mr Draghi says. “Namely that the central bank should be endowed with a clear price stability mandate and, within this mandate, should be allowed – in fact obliged – to use its instruments in full independence to deliver price stability.” *** Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure to speak to you tonight. When I last spoke at an event organised by the Bundesbank, in March 2012, the euro area stood at a crossroads. One direction pointed to continued malaise, with various vulnerabilities threatening to undo the benefits of economic, financial and even monetary integration. The other direction pointed to gradual repair, with ambitious reform efforts removing the key obstacles to economic stability and growth. The euro area has chosen the latter path. And today, we are seeing first signs that this decision is paying off. At the same time, challenges remain and continued reform efforts are needed to ensure that the recovery proves sustainable. Against this background, let me first elaborate on what I think are the key milestones achieved so far and then address what are the key challenges for the ECB in the coming months. What have we achieved so far? The euro area reform agenda has consisted of two pillars. One is to restore fiscal sustainability and economic competitiveness at country level.

The Banque de France tries to follow this piece of advice. To do so, we have adapted our organization and our governance structure with the creation of a Fintech hub within our supervisory function (which has already supported more than 300 FinTechs), the appointment of a Chief Digital Officer and the launch of a Lab to foster innovation within the Banque itself. We are experimenting with new technologies: the Banque de France has been the first central bank to implement a fully-fledged project based on DLT which is now fully operational 3 and we have successfully ran 8 artificial intelligence projects. We are also hosting discussions between 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  regulators and the industry: the latest working group on artificial intelligence will deliver its conclusion by end of this year. Finally, as we are doing with today’s conference, we are seeking insights from economic research and trying to be a platform for open debate. I wish you fruitful discussions, and now give the floor to David Andolfatto, Vice President at the Federal Reserve of Saint-Louis, for his keynote lecture. 1 Exemples: Ant Financial (Alibaba Group’s financial services), Tencent, Amazon, Apple, Facebook. See Ztezsche,  Buckley, Arner, Barberis 2017, “From FinTech to TechFin : The regulatory challenges of data-driven finance” 2 E.g. : financial conduct, price manipulation, market integrity risks or money-laundering. 3 Madre  4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches