samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
First, a supervisory risk assessment which will identify the key risks in banks’ balance sheet; second, a point-in-time Asset Quality Review (AQR) to enhance transparency over asset quality, provisioning and capital; and third, a stress test to examine the resilience of banks’ balance sheet to stressed scenarios. The assessment will conclude with a single disclosure of the outcomes, which will be published before the ECB assumes its supervisory role in November 2014. As the ECB has recently released a communication about this exercise, I will not go into more detail on its features today. Let me however stress that the exercise will be rigorous and transparent and will involve private expert firms, such as external auditors, consultants and specialised asset evaluators. Their presence, together with the announced “strong central governance structure”, will enhance the credibility of the exercise. National Supervisors and private firms involved in the assessment will work within the terms of a detailed framework defined by the ECB and their final output will be subject to a central review to assess their quality and analyse their consistency across banks and countries. We of course do not know what the assessment will find. But we trust that the euro area banks are today better prepared to undergo such an exercise. They are much stronger than in recent years. They have significantly strengthened their capital positions and now compare reasonably well with US banks in that respect.

Urban Bäckström: The Swedish economy Speech by Mr Urban Bäckström, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Board of Directors and President of the Bank for International Settlements, to the Swedish Shareholders’ Association, Stockholm, 27 November 2001. *  *  *  First a word of thanks for the invitation to this evening’s meeting. I intend to talk about the Swedish economy and monetary policy. The past year has been marked by a successive weakening of economic activity in Sweden as well as abroad. Forecasters all over the world have made sizeable downward revisions to the prospects for growth both this year and next. Consider the picture of the economic future that Consensus Economics compiles once a month from the predictions of 200 professional observers. At the beginning of this year the combined assessment was that in 2001 and 2002, GDP growth in the United States and Sweden would amount to between 2.6 and 3.5 per cent. It was foreseen that the slowdown would be comparatively moderate and be followed by a quick recovery. Today, growth in the United States is judged to be just a modest 1 per cent or so this year and even weaker in 2002. In Sweden, GDP is now expected to rise 1.4 this year and 1.7 per cent next year. In other words, it now looks as though the slowdown will be both deeper and more protracted than many observers counted on less than a year ago.
As a starting point I think it is worth taking a step back and reminding ourselves why the Riksbank and many other central banks in general have developed inflation targets. 1 The advantages of an inflation target Money as we know it in modern times has no natural, intrinsic value. Historically, coins were minted using valuable metals and central banks promised to redeem banknotes in exchange for a certain quantity of such metals. However, since the early 1970s every trace of this kind of link to valuable metals has disappeared. The reason why banknotes and coins nevertheless have a stable value is based on expectations and confidence – expectations that the money will continue to be valuable in the future and confidence that the central bank will pursue a monetary policy consistent with price stability. There are several ways to build expectations of price stability. It has often been attempted to develop some form of nominal anchor for the economy. The anchor could, for example, be a fixed exchange rate, a target for the development of money supply or an inflation target. When it is credible, an inflation target acts as a benchmark and guides expectations in the economy. When economic agents have a common picture of how prices will develop in the future, it becomes easier to plan for the long term. The inflation target therefore lays the foundations for efficient price and wage formation.

We have shared common destiny for centuries and now we should be ready for dialogue, cooperation and coordination. Above all, when we want to push through common interest in the future, we should work together in order to get a joint view of the events past and present. Thank you for your attention. 4  BIS Review 101/2010
Neither the Riksbank nor any other analyst perceived the monetary policy conducted to be leaning against the wind to any large extent, and the general impression was definitely not that the repo rate should have been left at the level to which it was cut during the financial crisis, that is, 0.25 per cent. 4  In the minutes, Lars Svensson presents estimates where the dotted yellow repo-rate path is assumed to give an inflation rate of 2 per cent from the beginning of 2013 and onwards and an unemployment rate that would reach what he assumed to be an equilibrium level of 5.5 per cent at the beginning of 2014. It may also be worth noting that at the ensuing meeting, in September 2011, all of the Executive Board members thought that 2 per cent was a suitable level for the repo rate, given the economic situation in Sweden. 5  National Institute of Economic Research (2011). 6  OECD (2011), pp. 191–192. 7  IMF (2011), p. 25 and Table 9. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  A strange assumption Given this, it is very strange to claim that an evaluation of the Riksbank’s policy should rely on the assumption that the alternative of not leaning against the wind would be to hold the repo rate at 0.25 until today. If no one perceived it as such at the time, it appears very strange to paint this picture retrospectively.

A case in point is that in Portugal, where non-financial companies have a sort of single window to report the data required by the main Portuguese authorities (Tax Agency, National Statistical Institute, Mercantile Register, Central Bank). In particular, our neighbour has been able to build a single data platform to which every authority can subsequently resort to obtain the information they are entitled to access. I have seen that in the Spanish National Statistical Plan (PEN) for next year there is a reference to a project setting up a “Sistema Integrado de Información de las Empresas”, which I think is along the same lines. It could then contribute to significantly reducing firms’ reporting burden in the future. As concerns financial information, we should also be open to more efficient financial reporting and statistical production at the Banco de España and the ESCB level. The Banco de España is very much committed to this goal. In fact, we already have a strategy to simplify and rationalise regulatory reporting that is starting to bear results. The main aim is to alleviate the reporting burden and to improve data management by institutions and by the Banco de España itself. 7  On top of that, various initiatives have been taken as part of the Banco de España’s Strategic Plan (which runs to 2024) dealing with data management and transparency.
See Minoiu and Reyes (2013) for more information  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  correlations is, in their own way, a rather imperfect metric of cross-system interaction. Nonetheless, they suggest these interactions are, in general, both important and strong. A final, indirect and reduced-form, piece of evidence on the complexity of the macro-financial system comes from looking at the statistical distribution of behaviour in these systems. For other complex systems, physical, natural, biological and social systems, this statistical distribution is known to be highly non-normal (Newman (2005)). Indeed, many of these systems are found to be Power-law distributed, with much fatter tails than would be expected from a normal distribution. To what extent are these statistical properties evident in macro-economic and financial timeseries data? Chart 14 looks at the statistical distribution of GDP growth, credit growth, equity prices and rice prices, using a long time-series covering several hundreds of year. These densities have been transformed such that, if the underlying distribution is normal, the dots trace a straight line. Any deviation at the extremities is evidence of a fat-tailed distribution. It is clear from Chart 14 that all four series exhibit a significant degree of fat-tailedness, considerably more so than a normal distribution. This is consistent with economic and financial systems, locally and globally, exhibiting complex system of systems properties. For example, a four-standard deviation event – a true catastrophe – would under a normal distribution be expected to occur roughly every 15,000 years.

With these few words, Mr Chairman, I would like to urge you, the participants, to be interactive in your discussions as this is one of the ways the workshop would add value to your knowledge and skills. I wish you fruitful discussions as you share your valuable experiences in macroeconomic analysis and modelling in support of Millennium Development Goals. I thank you for your attention. BIS Review 123/2007  3
Frank Elderson: Maintaining prudence when navigating unexpected tides and firming currents Dinner speech by Mr Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank, at the 25th Frankfurt Euro Finance Week, Frankfurt am Main, 15 November 2022. *** Vielen Dank für die Einladung, die Rede beim Bundesbank Euro Finance Week Dinner 2022 zu halten. I have been eagerly looking forward to speaking here for a long time now indeed ever since the summer of 2021, when I first received the kind invitation to speak at the Euro Finance Week Bundesbank dinner planned for last year. The pandemic got in the way of that, but as a testament of how long-standing my readiness to speak to you is, I still have my preparatory notes for the 2021 event. A year ago, I intended to remind you that the rebound in the economic recovery was increasingly advanced and would firm over the medium term as pandemic-related constraints on spending are removed. I might have said that while higher inflation would last longer than we at the ECB anticipated before, it would fall below our 2% target and only gradually revert back to target in the medium term. Indeed, these were some of the main considerations when assessing the macroeconomic outlook in the euro area exactly one year ago. How that picture has changed, especially since Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.

Current economic and monetary policy outlook Today, a mild recession in the euro area around the turn of the year is quite plausible, as ECB President Christine Lagarde recently highlighted.1 Today, we face euro area inflation that continues to be far too high, having reached double digits in October. Today, long-term interest rates in the euro area are around 2.5 percentage points higher than when I was first due to speak to you last year. Today, as Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said just last week, - "muss die Geldpolitik auf der Hut sein".2 Monetary policy must be on its guard. And monetary policy is not just on its guard but is taking action. The increase in interest rates reflects several steps in the monetary policy normalisation which the ECB started in December 2021. These were the phasing-out of our pandemic support measures, the subsequent full phasing-out of our net asset purchases, and three consecutive policy rate hikes across our July, September and October monetary policy meetings totalling an unprecedented 200 basis points. Today, it is not evident that the observed turn in macroeconomic sentiment will substantially alter the inflation outlook, even if a mild recession were indeed to materialise. Against this backdrop, we have communicated that we will continue to promptly withdraw monetary policy support and move policy rates further to a level that is consistent with inflation reverting back to our 2% target in the medium term.
As a broad guide to the scale of this inflation of the risk margin and of TMTPs, the current aggregate level of risk margin for UK life firms of around 50% of SCR (with firms in a range around this average) can be compared to the size of the risk margin at the time of the EIOPA impact study used to calibrate its design (when market interest rates were higher) of around 35% of SCR. The purpose of Solvency II was not to raise capital levels on the stock of existing business across the industry. Therefore, the PRA has complete confidence in TMTPs as a legitimate means of achieving a glide path to the new Solvency II requirements and we give firms the full benefit of TMTPs when considering their capital positions. We encourage firms to provide full disclosure of the risk margin and drivers of TMTPs in their first Solvency and Financial Condition Reports in May. To conclude, Solvency II was too long in the making and expensive to implement for both regulators and industry. But that is the past. Broadly, it is now working well, with only a few notable exceptions such as the excessive sensitivity of the risk margin to interest rates. Some of the most important parts of Solvency II were drawn from the UK ICAS regime that was born out of UK experience, including the near collapse of Equitable Life.

Fahad Almubarak: Top achievements of the monetary sector during the past decade Speech by H E Dr Fahad Almubarak, Governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, at the National Day, Riyadh, 25 September 2014. *  *  *  Our beloved country is celebrating its 84th national day, which is very dear occasion to all of us. The march of welfare and building continues under the prudent leadership of the Kingdom. SAMA’s employees are overwhelmed with happiness on this occasion in light of the achievements of the monetary policy by focusing on the interests of the country and citizens. SAMA’s balanced monetary policy has contributed to strengthening the stability of the national economy during stages of global stress and turbulence. As a result, the credit rating of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been upgraded. Fitch upgraded the Kingdom’s sovereign credit rating to AA from AA- with a stable outlook. Over the past ten years, the banking sector witnessed a great development quantitatively and qualitatively. M3 rose by 270 percent to SAR 1,669.3 billion at the end of July 2014 against an increase of SAR 451.3 billion at the end of July 2004. Total bank deposits also went up by 284.5 percent to SAR 1,520.6 billion in the same period. Total commercial banks’ claims on the private and public sectors grew by 193.3 percent to SAR 1,314.4 billion at the end of July 2014 compared to SAR 447.8 billion at the end of July 2004.
This trend appears to be in stark contrast to the 2008 crisis. As the services sector is a labor-intensive sector, the cost that the pandemic imposed on employment has been much higher than that of the financial crisis of 2008. In this process, central banks all over the world took extraordinary expansionary policy measures such as interest rate cuts, asset purchases, liquidity steps and credit support programs. The experience of policy makers in unconventional monetary policy after the 2008 crisis and the expansion of the toolkit has made a positive contribution to the policy response to the pandemic. Central banks of advanced and emerging economies used the existing policy space without hesitation and promptly, and cut policy rates as a first response to the crisis. Central banks also reintroduced bond purchases that they had included in the post-crisis toolkit. It is noteworthy that emerging market central banks also resorted to bond purchases, unlike in the 2008 crisis. Central banks have provided more funding through repo transactions and extended the maturity of funding to prevent liquidity squeeze in the money market and to facilitate access to liquidity. In this period, when economies came to a standstill, this intervention by central banks was appropriate and vital for the functioning of the financial system. Globally, policy rates have been rapidly lowered and the average interest rate in both advanced and emerging economies has fallen below the levels in the 2008 crisis.

Speech Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey  Prof. Şahap Kavcıoğlu, Governor The Future of Finance Summit 28 September 2021, Istanbul  2  Mr. Minister, Distinguished representatives of the finance sector, Distinguished members of the press, Dear Guests, First, I would like to thank A Para Team for their kind invitation. Today, I will share our views on the Role of Central Banks amid a Pandemic. I think it would be useful to break the issues that economic policy has focused on since the beginning of the pandemic into two periods. The first was a period in which economies came to a standstill with historically unprecedented shutdowns across the globe. In this period, central banks and other policy makers took many measures to prevent job losses and bankruptcies and to make sure financial markets continued to function. The second period is still ongoing with accelerated recovery amid faster vaccination in the face of global output failing to keep pace with increased demand and surging global inflation due to rising commodity prices. In the first period when coronavirus spread around the world, the global economy suffered a much deeper downturn than the financial crisis of 2008. As the pandemic also caused a large-scale supply shock, the negative impact on economies was much bigger and more permanent than in 2008. The economic effects of the pandemic were felt worldwide and more deeply than the global financial crisis while policy responses were diverse and unprecedentedly strong.
This is evidence that we have not experienced a spike in inflation directly attributable to the euro. A lot of people would tell you that everything went haywire after March... Yes, we have since had an increase in inflation but this is largely attributable to the delayed higher international energy prices and the spike in food and cereal prices. We have been importing inflation, and the way we have administered prices in the energy sector has not helped. We have tried to protect ourselves for too long from market prices, and then when you make changes they tend to be bigger than if you had allowed the gradual movement of prices to take place. To what extent has the introduction of the euro helped to cushion the impact of the financial crisis? Where would we be with the Maltese lira? I was one of those who always expressed the belief that Malta's small open economy in a liberalised global environment and with its own currency was becoming increasingly vulnerable. That is why I was an advocate of EU membership and of early euro adoption. We only need to look at the example of Iceland, which stayed out of the EU, and the financial disaster it is now experiencing. Look at Denmark – an advanced stable country which is also pegged to the euro. Because of this turmoil, the Danish central bank has had to increase interest rates. This is the price of going it alone in times of stress. How much Maltese lira remains in circulation?

I have just seen that our two main banks are moving in this direction and are also giving preferential treatment to mortgages. You also have to remember that a bank manages two sides of the balance sheets. It collects interest from borrowers but it pays interest to depositors. It is the efficient management of the difference between interest earned and interest paid that earns a bank its profits. Given that both lending and deposit books may differ from one bank to the other, there could be various reasons why the full interest rate cut is not passed on to the customer straight away. Are you optimistic that these interest rate cuts are enough to stave off recession? Monetary policy is just one instrument available for macroeconomic adjustment, so it has a limited capacity. It just tries to achieve price stability, because without price stability you cannot have long-term investment plans plus economic growth and employment. The problem is deeper than that. We need a coordinated effort at the political, central banking and regulatory levels. There is talk of a looming recession in Malta. Do you agree with this argument? I have not seen any economic indicators which at this point in time suggest that this scenario is imminent. I would rather wait to see the figures as they come out. So far we have an average growth rate of over three per cent for the first half of the year.
Jacqueline Loh: Creating opportunities and strengthening the Singapore core in financial services Keynote speech by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the SGUnited Financial Sector Jobs & Skills Fair, Singapore, 12 August 2020. * * * 1. Good morning, and thank you for inviting me to speak at this first virtual career fair by the Institute of Banking and Finance (IBF) for the financial services sector. Opening The financial services sector is a key contributor to Singapore’s economy, and has provided good job opportunities for Singaporeans. 2. In 2019, the sector accounted for 13.3% of GDP1 and employed more than 170,0002 workers. During 2015-2019, the sector created 22,000 net jobs. Our estimate suggests that of this, 16,000 – or 3 out of every 4 jobs – went to locals. And these are good jobs: 15,000 local jobs created were at salaries within the top 40% of 2016 salaries. The median income of locals in the sector last year was $ well above the national median of $ As the sector has grown and strengthened its competitiveness as a global financial centre in Asia, it has created good jobs for locals. This year, financial services sector growth has held up thus far, with retrenchment levels subdued. 3. The sector3 expanded by 5.9% year-on-year in 1H 2020, and employment rose by about 1,500, based on MAS’ estimate. Our internal estimates suggests that locals continue to take up at least 3 out of every 4 jobs created.

Fact checkers have also developed a code of conduct to enable users to assess the veracity of their work. 34  There have also been examples of new institutions being created to enhance trustworthiness in areas where trust has been eroded. In the wake of the series of misconduct scandals around misselling of financial products, LIBOR and foreign exchange rigging, two institutions were established. The first, the Banking Standards Board, is focused on improving conduct standards in banks. The second, the FICC Markets Standards Board, seeks to pre-empt future problems by establishing acceptable standards of practice in wholesale financial markets. These initiatives will take time to bear fruit, but are illustrative of trying to rebuild trustworthiness when it has lapsed. Schools and universities will have to do more to educate students to be more discerning consumers of information, and public awareness campaigns on media literacy may be warranted. 35  In a striking piece of  research based on testing of thousands of students across the United States, the Stanford History Education Group concluded that young people’s ability to reason about information on the internet could be summed up as “bleak.” They tested students on whether they could distinguish an ad from a news story or whether they noticed that data came from a political lobbying group. “At every case and at every level, we were taken aback by students’ lack of preparation.