samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As Chart 4 shows, forecasts for growth this year and next in the major Asian markets – and in developing and emerging market economies as a whole – are for a continuation of the healthy growth rates seen in these economies throughout the past decade. There are good grounds for believing that this strong performance in Asia and other emerging markets will continue to be an engine of world economic growth as the recovery continues. First, there are healthy supply-side fundamentals in the economies of Asia – a large potential labour supply, with the region accounting for about half of the world’s population, and scope for continuing productivity catch-up with the more advanced economies. Second, governments in Asia and many other emerging market economies remain committed to market-oriented policies and continued integration into the world trading system, which has proved an important underpinning for rapid growth and development in the past. 7 Third, public and private finances are generally in good shape. The banks and other financial institutions in the major Asian economies were not directly affected by the crisis in the same way as the financial sector in the US and Europe. Government finances have also started from a stronger position, which means that fiscal policies can continue to support private sector demand and there is much less need for serious fiscal retrenchment as a result. 7  4  See, for example, The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy, World Bank, 1993.

For example, the volume of international air traffic, which is highly sensitive to world growth trends, was 6.4% up on a year ago in January 2010. 3 Despite the gloomy headlines surrounding the release of the latest UK trade figures last week, the UK economy is benefiting from this revival in world trade and activity. The latest trade data show that since the second quarter of last year, the volume of UK goods exports, excluding oil and erratics, have risen 8.5%. 4 This is equivalent to an annual growth rate of 15% – around three times the trend rate of UK export growth since the early 1990s. 5 But imports have bounced back too, which is why the trade deficit is not shrinking at present. In the short-term that should not be a source of concern – rising imports at this stage of the cycle are usually a sign of a recovery in demand and a turnaround in the stock cycle. But over time, we should see rising exports helping to close the UK’s trade deficit. The very positive responses on export orders and confidence shown by a range of recent business surveys suggest that there is a significant further boost to our international trade performance on the way – supported by the competitiveness benefits of sterling’s depreciation since mid-2007. This bounceback in the world economy is much stronger than we might have expected a year ago. 6 So what has been driving it? And how resilient might it prove to be?
The ongoing structural reform process along with the implementation of tight monetary and fiscal policies have enabled the strengthening of economic fundamentals, characterized as a decline in the risk premium, reduction in real interest rates and appreciation of the New Turkish lira (YTL) against foreign currencies, which have been the main determinants of rapid growth in the total domestic demand in 2005. Within this framework, total final domestic demand increased by the high rate of 19.1 percent in the last quarter of 2005 compared to the same period of the previous year. Analyzing by quarterly periods, seasonally adjusted data also point to an ongoing rapid growth tendency in total final domestic demand in the last quarter of 2005 (Graph 10). BIS Review 67/2006  7  Graph 10. GDP and Total Final Domestic Demand (Seasonally Adjusted) 40000 38000 36000 34000 32000 30000 28000 26000 24000 03-I  03-II  03-III 03-IV  04-I  04-II  04-III 04-IV  05-I  Total Final Domestic Demand  05-II  05-III 05-IV  GDP  Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Analyzing by demand components, total consumption and total investment expenditures made a high contribution to GDP growth by 5.8 and 5.7 percentage points, respectively. While private investment expenditures maintained both its machinery-equipment and construction investment-originated growth trend in the last quarter of the year, public expenditures provided an investment-based support to economic growth during the same period. Accordingly, both public and private-sector-originated high increases in total investment expenditures are still continuing (Graph 11).

Exchange Rate Developments Real Effective Exchange Rate (CPI Based)  YTL/Basket (0.5 Euro-0.5 USD)  1.85  180  1.75  170  1.65  160 150  1.55  140  1.45  130 1.35  Jan-06  Jul-05  Jan-05  Jul-04  Jan-04  Jul-03  Jan-03  Jul-02  2-Jan-06  2-Sep-05  2-May-05  2-Jan-05  2-Sep-04  2-May-04  2-Jan-04  2-Sep-03  2-Jan-03  2-May-03  2-Sep-02  100 2-May-02  1.15 2-Jan-02  110 Jan-02  120  1.25  Source: CBRT. It is observed that the stability in YTL-denominated bond issues by foreign banks, an indicator of demand for YTL, has a tendency to continue. In the first quarter of 2006, there was no remarkable change in the maturity structure of current securities compared to the last quarter of the previous year (Graph 23). 14  BIS Review 67/2006  Graph 23. YTL-Denominated Bonds Issued by Foreign Banks 5,000  3500 3000  4,000  Amount (Million YTL)  Amount of Issue (Million YTL)  4,500 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500  2500 2000 1500 1000 500  Quarter of Issue  2020  2018  2016  2014  2012  2010  2008  0 2006  1.Quarter 2006  4.Quarter 2005  3.Quarter 2005  2.Quarter 2005  1.Quarter 2005  0  Year of Maturity  Source: CBRT.
I would like to elaborate on the Eurosystem’s contribution to enhanced disclosure through its initiative to make loan-by-loan level data on ABS transactions widely available. Let me say from the start that this initiative alone will not suffice to re-open the market, but it would become an important building block along the path towards standardisation, simpler structures, and better post trade price transparency. As you will remember, in December 2009 the ECB launched a public consultation in order to gather market and public feedback on a proposal to introduce requirements on loan level data in ABS transactions and make this an explicit eligibility criterion, should the ABS be used as collateral with the Eurosystem. This initiative may trigger a structural change in the way the different market participants interact within the securitisation markets. By increasing the transparency, availability and quality of the information on the underlying assets, and by ensuring a regular updating of the information, market participants will have a sounder base on which to build valuation, risk and surveillance models. The public consultation included six questions on the general advisability of the initiative as well as on technical details of the implementation. At the end of the consultation period on 26 February 2010, 53 responses from different investors, market data vendors, credit rating agencies, financial service providers, audit firms, stock exchanges, law firms, public authorities, and central securities depositaries, had been received.

Thomas Jordan: Monetary policy in times of crisis. Why central banks talk to one another Summary of a speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Energie-Apéro Etavis, Zurich, 14 May 2012. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website  *  *  *  Mandates differ from one central bank to another. So, too, do the economic structures and business cycles of different central bank territories. These factors speak in favour of an autonomous monetary policy for each currency area. This monetary policy autonomy has proved its value for Switzerland – also in the latest crisis. Nevertheless, central banks do work with one another in a number of different ways. They exchange knowledge on a continual basis, thereby helping to improve the foundations upon which their own monetary policy decisions are made. Central banks are also able to access foreign currencies by concluding swap agreements, allowing them to better counteract liquidity shortages on the international money market in times of crisis. Finally, joint measures can have a strong psychological impact since they signal to financial markets and economic agents that the central banks are speaking with a single voice. Autonomy and cooperation are not mutually exclusive. On the contrary. In a crisis, good cooperation supports and reinforces the effects of autonomous monetary policy measures.
Developments in aggregate demand, output and employment point to a higher interest rate. At the same time, the rise in consumer prices is slowing, and the rise in prices excluding energy products is unexpectedly low. This suggests a continued low interest rate." The Executive Board found that the strategy in the Inflation Report and overall new information warranted that the interest rate should be left unchanged at this meeting. The Executive Board also stated that: "Continued high capacity utilisation and growth will probably lead to a gradual pick-up in inflation. The interest rate will therefore be set so that monetary policy gradually becomes less expansionary." Exchange rate developments I have been asked in particular to discuss the krone exchange rate and the foreign exchange market. Exchange rate movements are difficult to project in the short and medium term. In the inflation reports, the exchange rate projections are based on the theory of uncovered interest rate parity, which postulates that the return on financial investments is the same, irrespective of the country invested in. According to this theory, the excange rate will remain stable if the interest rate differential against other countries is small. 4  BIS Review 90/2006  In practice, this is not always the case. On the contrary, studies show that short-term exchange rate developments can best be described by means of a random walk process. This means that the best one-day ahead krone projection is the same-day exchange rate.

It cannot therefore be argued with great conviction that it is possible to identify one particular interest rate forecast that provides the indisputably "best" trade-off in monetary policy. More often than not, there will be a number of possible interest rate paths that might be said to provide a reasonable balance, in view of the uncertainty involved. The results of balancing this trade-off are published in the Inflation Report in the form of a chart that presents central projections for the interest rate, the exchange rate, inflation and capacity utilisation in the economy. The formulation of a precise inflation target, our projection for the interest rate 3 - 4 years ahead and our desire to achieve a balance between output and inflation stability may perhaps give an impression of excessive optimism with respect to managing the economy and invite a repeat of earlier attempts to fine-tune the economy. But it is important to bear in mind the lessons drawn from the 1970s and 1980s, i.e. high stabilisation policy ambitions may lead to wide fluctuations in the economy, with high  BIS Review 90/2006  3  and variable inflation. In our conduct of monetary policy, we must not underestimate the uncertainty surrounding the decisions taken. Even if the Bank publishes a forecast for the interest rate, this does not mean that the interest rate will follow the forecast throughout the projection period.
What the New York Fed does By way of introduction, I will briefly review what my colleagues and I do at the New York Fed. The New York Fed is one of 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, our nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve is independent within our government. By law, we are charged with managing the nation’s monetary policy – taking actions that raise or lower interest rates to promote full employment and price stability. The Federal Reserve is also charged with promoting financial stability, without which we cannot achieve our economic objectives. We play an important role in the nation’s payments and settlements system, which some people call the financial system’s “plumbing”. For example, we help ensure that banks’ ATMs have cash and that the checks you write move the money to the recipient. In addition, we have a specific mandate to promote economic development in each of our regions. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  As president of the New York Fed, I serve as the vice chair of the FOMC, the Federal Reserve committee that meets eight times a year in Washington to set interest rates and make decisions about monetary policy. The members of this committee all strive to achieve our statutory mandate of full employment and price stability. Sometimes we have different views on the specific policy choices at hand, and our policy decisions reflect a full discussion of these differences.

The best way to do this is to craft a plan that starts small in terms of its near-term impact, then grows very substantially over time as the economy grows healthier. Of course this requires that the longer-term consolidation is truly credible. It is also important that any plan have broad bipartisan support so that that households and businesses understand that it will in fact be carried out. We saw in the summer of 2011 when the debt ceiling limit was in play that a failure to come to grips with our nation’s economic challenges and responsibilities can have a large effect on U.S. household and business confidence. We do not want to repeat this experience at the start of 2013. Moreover, what happens will influence how we are perceived abroad. When I meet with economic leaders across the globe they do not doubt the underlying strength and dynamism of the U.S. economy, or the entrepreneurialism and inventiveness of our people. Nor do they doubt that we have the resources and capability to overcome the challenges we face. But they do wonder whether our political system is capable of putting the national interest above partisan interests and making the tough choices needed to address these challenges. If a credible bipartisan agreement is reached, it will strengthen global confidence in the U.S. and underscore to the world that our country remains a great place to do business and invest in.
Let me be very clear, substituting “duty” for “presumption” changes the mechanism of enforcement not the substance of the requirement on senior managers, and I would not support changing the latter. There has been a lot of noise around the new regime in recent months, and I have asked people involved whether their problem was with the “presumption”, or with the regime more broadly. The universal answer has been that the difficulty was with the “presumption” not the regime which appears to have broad support. So, if Parliament is in agreement, and I do not presume to take that for granted, I expect that the new regime will be put into effect in the spirit with which it is intended, and that the focus  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  will shift to that spirit and away from finding ways to circumvent the “presumption”. To be blunt, I hope that those within firms and their advisors will respect the will of Parliament on this crucial point. The new regime matters hugely for getting the right incentives for people running firms. The important word is not “presumption” or “duty but rather “responsibility”, it’s about holding people more personally to account. If there are people who wish to argue that they should not take on the responsibilities of the job they do, then I believe they have no place in the industry, it’s that simple. We all want well-run firms where senior people lead and take responsibility.

This is an important issue, and one that matters if we are to have growing challenger banks. We want to put such a regime into effect, and thus demonstrate that at the PRA we are very serious about our competition objective. I hope the European authorities will likewise pursue this important change. We will also be arguing in Basel and in the EU to narrow the gap between standardised and internally modelled capital requirements for prime mortgages including by having more risk sensitivity in the standardised approach. And, we have also tightened the standard for models. I also want to be clear that we welcome internal model applications by smaller banks and we will do what we can to help them meet the required prudential standards, which are largely set out in the EU legislation. Lord Mayor, a year in your office is never dull, and likewise our world is certainly full of interest. I have ranged quite widely this evening to give a report on a number of our key areas of activity. There are however some very important core principles at the heart of our work, getting the incentives right for firms and individuals, and establishing the importance of personal  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  responsibility within an appropriate setting. I have been blunt on one or two points and this may provoke debate.
The group's objective is to develop appropriate educational materials that help teachers to introduce primary school pupils to the concepts of money, budgeting, credit and savings, and then to build on that knowledge in secondary schools and, if possible, up to the age of 18. The first information kits approved by the group of experts will be supplied to teachers for the beginning of the new school year in September 2017. The Banque de France will promote their use to teachers in academies in accordance with its brief defined by the Ministry of Education. *** 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Allow me to conclude by quoting the American musician, Pete Seeger, who had these wise words: "Do you know the difference between education and experience? Education is when you read the fine print; experience is what you get when you don’t. "4 And I would add that it is financial education that should make all the fine print understandable. Thank you for your attention. 1 "Éducation financière : connaissances et pratiques des Français". Survey on the financial literacy of French  people carried out by the French public opinion institute, IFOP, for the Ministry of the Economy and Finance in September 2016. 2 Lusardi A. and Mitchell O. S. (2014), “The Economic Importance of financial literacy: theory and evidence",  Journal of Economic Literature, 52(1), pp. 5-44. 3 L. Arrondel, M. Debbich and F. Savignac (2013), “Financial Literacy and Financial Planning in France",  Numeracy, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Article 8.

And for several years now, the Banque de France has been striving to improve the financial literacy of the general public, and particularly that of our younger generations. This has involved ongoing vocational teacher training in the framework of the 21 academic partnership agreements signed with the Ministry of Education thanks to our nationwide presence, as well as [slide 5] ambitious projects such as “Citéco”, the Cité de l’économie et de la monnaie. Citéco is an innovative and recreational museum dedicated to economics, money and finance, that will open its doors to the public at the end of 2018 in the newly renovated Hôtel Gaillard in the 17th arrondissement of Paris. 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Therefore, the Banque de France plays the role of conductor of the French national strategy for financial education [slide 6], in order to mobilise and coordinate the activities of all stakeholders, be they associations, institutions or finance sector representatives. Through these partnerships, we can thus ensure that efforts are stepped up to raise awareness and train as many people as possible.
Even if neurological differences exist, they should not be exaggerated. For example, research has suggested these gender differences are typically smaller than the differences in brain wiring that exist within each gender. Or, put differently, neuroscientists have challenged the notion that brains are either “male” or “female”. Instead, most brains are transgender, a property known as “mosaicism”. 53 Our androgynous brains are also far from static. They evolve and re-wire over time in response to experience and circumstance. Neurologists call this property “plasticity”. 54 The malleability of our brains means that differences in the environment facing the sexes can have a lasting impact on their behaviour. Indeed, some studies have suggested that, once allowance is made for these environmental factors, behavioural differences between the sexes effectively disappear. For example, differences in the relative competitiveness of the sexes tend to be equalised once environmental factors are take into account. 55 And differences in mathematical performance  46  This is measured as the fraction of high-tech industry output relative to that in the economy as a whole. 47  Florida (2002, 2011). 48  For example, Charness and Gneezy (2012). 49  Coates (2012). 50  For example, Lagarde (2014), Davies (2015). 51  For example, Ertac and Gurdle (2011). 52  Ingalhalikar et al (2014)  53  Joel et al (2015)  54  Brooks (2011) . 55  Wozniak et al (2009), Cardenas et al (2014).

What is more, the Swiss franc has only seen a moderate rise against the euro. As Swiss households and companies are on a solid financial footing, they are shielded – so to speak – against a tightening in credit conditions. Lastly, the stronger Swiss franc vis-à-vis the US dollar has limited the impact of higher commodity prices. Several other factors, like a robust labour market and a competitive industrial sector, could cushion the negative repercussions of the financial crisis in Switzerland. Against this backdrop, the SNB is expecting real GDP to grow between 1.5% and 2% this year. Inflation should be below the 2% mark again in the course of 2008. These forecasts still involve substantial uncertainties. Given the present state of the economy, the current interest level seems to be appropriate. However, the SNB will keep a close eye on further economic developments and inflation so that it is able to identify when action needs to be taken and react in a quick and flexible manner. BIS Review 51/2008  1