samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In judging how far inflation is likely to fall back next year, we have to gauge the extent to which high inflation in the short term will enter the expectations of those setting prices and pay. If it does so, then without some margin of spare capacity, inflation will have some tendency to persist above the target. Our inflation target is symmetric. We are not aiming for inflation below 2%, but at 2%. So even though some slowdown in the growth rate of economic activity is likely to be necessary to ensure that inflation returns to the target, we cannot allow the economy to slow too sharply, lest a margin of spare capacity is produced that pulls inflation down below the target next year. We face a difficult balancing act. Why should we not focus on growth for a while and forget about inflation? The answer is that once higher inflation becomes entrenched, it may be costly to dislodge. Past UK recessions were associated not with slowdowns in the world economy, but with attempts to squeeze inflation out of the UK economy. The best thing that we can do to promote economic stability is to avoid inflation, and inflation expectations, from becoming dislodged from the target in the first place. The most important function of an independent central bank is its role in monetary policy. Price stability is a necessary foundation of economic stability more generally.

Hamad Al-Sayari: A brief overview of the Saudi Arabian banking sector Speech by His Excellency Hamad Al-Sayari, Governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, at the opening of a branch of the National Bank of Kuwait, Jeddah, 6 May 2006. *  *  *  Dear Audience, It gives me great pleasure to be here tonight to inaugurate the branch of the National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) in Jeddah, a city which has long been known for embracing the business sector due to its closeness to the sacred places and its unique location on the Red Sea. The commencement of NBK of its banking operations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia marks further consolidation of cordial relations between the two brotherly countries (Saudi Arabia and Kuwait). This is one of the fruits of mutual Gulf work which the leaderships of the two countries are keen to enhance. Dear Brothers, The inauguration of NBK branch comes at a time when the Kingdom is witnessing robust economic performance. In 2005, the Saudi economy grew in real terms by 6.5 percent; the private sector registered a real growth of 6.6 percent. What is reassuring is that the private sector has become the main impetus of the Saudi economy. Its average growth rate for the past years stood at 5.3 percent.
It is also possible that under this scenario we will be able to ease our policy even earlier. As the capital outflow during this period will mainly result from external debt payments, in this scenario we estimate the total capital outflow to be at the same level as in the baseline scenario. Under this scenario we are ready to allocate about $ billion for FX transactions in order to stabilise the balance of payments that is also acceptable from the foreign exchange reserve adequacy point of view. It should be noted that the reserve level will be restored following the economy adjustment to the new conditions as we intend to conduct mainly reverse transactions. The Bank of Russia will undertake operations in the foreign exchange market based on the balance of payments forecast and the estimation of balances of banks and companies taking into account the structure, terms and nature of corporate debt. I would like to emphasise that we carry out these transactions in order to prevent situations when excessive exchange rate volatility and its considerable deviation from fundamental levels create financial stability risks and result in higher depreciation and inflation expectations. In particular, now that risks arising from the ruble exchange rate dynamics have aggravated, the Bank of Russia came up with interventions in the foreign exchange market. Of course, we will also consider the impact of operations in the foreign exchange market on the ruble liquidity and ease the negative effect of growing structural deficit on the credit institutions’ balance sheets.

The “Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy in 2015 and for 2016 and 2017” stipulate that the removal of sanctions and trade restrictions results in certain inflation decrease and moderate acceleration of economic growth. We take this possibility into account but base our policy decisions on the forecasts providing for long-term sanctions. The baseline forecast the Bank of Russia currently applies in the decision-making approximates scenario IIIb published in the aforementioned document. We expect average oil prices to be $ per barrel during the next three years. This average price results from consensus forecast of the leading analysts. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  In the scenario under consideration the current account surplus remains on the acceptable level of $ billion in 2015. In 2016 and 2017, no significant changes in the current account balance are expected either. The development of import substitution will boost domestic production. The service sector will see similar trend. Conditions for diversification of the economy will be established. Contribution of net exports to GDP will be positive. According to the Bank of Russia estimates, in these conditions economic growth rates will remain close to zero in 2015–2016, however in 2017, when import substitution and increase in non-commodity exports become more apparent, we expect GDP to grow up to 1–1.2%. Higher growth rates in the next three years require structural reforms, primarily measures aimed at real improvement of business climate and higher labour productivity.
Reducing the temporary employment ratio One of the differential aspects of our labour market is its high temporary employment ratio. On average over the past decade it has stood at 25.2%, compared with 13.9% for the euro area. It is indeed employees on temporary contracts who have disproportionately borne the brunt of job destruction flows in the Spanish economy. That gives rise to very adverse effects on inequality, careers and productivity. And this without forgetting that excessive temporariness influences such important decisions as those on youths leaving the family home and starting a family. For all these reasons, reducing duality is unavoidable. In this connection, the employment protection mechanisms should be reviewed under the prism of squaring the necessary protection of employees with flexibility for firms. Accordingly, I believe we should explore modalities such as contracts with growing severance costs. There are also mixed models which combine the possibility of accumulating in advance in a fund a portion of these severance costs with a severance payment in the event of dismissal whose amount increases with years of service. Improving active labour market policies Another characteristic of our labour market is the high persistence of unemployment. For example, at end-2019, almost 43% of the unemployed had been seeking a job for more than one year. The situation will now worsen, given that the workers most affected by this crisis are, on average, lesser-skilled. Active labour market policies should therefore be strengthened.

That includes ensuring that our monetary policy feeds through to all sectors of the economy and to all countries, and heading off any financial fragmentation problems like those experienced in the past. In short, we stand ready to adjust all our instruments as necessary. On the supervisory front, the banking sector must clearly tackle this crisis from a healthier position than in the previous crisis. In any event, we should continue to be doubly watchful. First, over banks and financial markets, so they continue to smooth the flow of financing. And second, over the risks to financial stability. Regarding the first objective, beyond the role of monetary policy, we supervisors have enabled banks to make use of the capital buffers available and the Government approved a public guarantees programme for loans to firms that has softened financial intermediaries’ reluctance to incur higher risks in circumstances such as the present. All these measures have been effective. The latest data for April show a year-on-year rebound of almost 90% in the flow of new lending granted by banks to firms. In any case, the information analysed by the Banco de España shows that small firms and those most affected by the crisis might have difficulty gaining access to financing, especially in the absence of public support instruments. In turn, incentives must be gradually restored so that financial resources may be reallocated to those firms and sectors that can most contribute to the recovery in activity and employment.
It is assumed that the central bank wants - if it had been possible - output and price stability. The welfare loss will thus be smaller the further into the chart we are. The lines in the chart (indifference curves) thus show different combinations of inflation variability and output variability that result in the same welfare loss. BIS Review 49/2002  3  Lars Svensson, who is a prominent contributor to theoretical research in the area of monetary policy, has recommended that the central bank should explicitly define a loss function. He proposes an expression where the squared deviation between inflation and the inflation target and the squared deviation between actual and potential output be weighted together to provide a measure of the loss in each period. The total loss is then found by discounting future losses. Up to now, no central bank has gone as far as Svensson recommends. However, the horizon that is chosen for monetary policy will implicitly provide some indication of the central bank’s loss function. If the horizon is very short, inflation will be quickly brought back to the target, with greater fluctuations in output as a result. This indicates that the central bank puts considerable weight on avoiding variations in inflation and little weight on stabilising the real economy. Similarly, if the horizon is long, it will indicate that the central bank also puts greater weight on avoiding variations in output and employment. 4  BIS Review 49/2002  The chart illustrates the optimal combinations of inflation and output variability.

The operational objective of monetary policy is low and stable inflation. The inflation target is set at 2½ per cent. A monetary stance resulting in high and varying inflation would have led to wider swings in output and employment. It would also have been a recipe for turbulence in the foreign exchange markets. There is therefore a close link between the third paragraph of the regulation - the inflation target - and the first paragraph concerning stabilising economic developments and exchange rate expectations. Monetary policy affects the economy with considerable and variable lags. The current level of inflation does not provide an adequate basis for determining the level at which interest rates should be set today. Our analyses indicate that a substantial share of the effects of an interest rate change will occur within two years. Two years is thus a reasonable time horizon for attaining the inflation target, and also makes it possible to avoid unnecessary output and employment variability. See also the formulation of the regulation about contributing to stable developments in output and employment. If we should attempt to attain the inflation target in the very short term, by lowering the key rate and thereby contributing to a depreciation of the krone and higher price inflation, we would very probably be compelled to raise the interest rate even more a year from now in order to attain the inflation target than we did the last time we raised interest rates. Such a short-term policy would have contributed to greater demand and output instability.
But, in the event exchange rates moved in the wrong direction, illustrating the unpredictable – even perverse – relationship between relative interest rate and exchange rate movements at least in the short term. That ought to be a salutary lesson to those who imply that monetary policy can be directed to controlling both inflation and the exchange rate at the same time! So there is not much that we can do directly, through monetary policy, to affect the various external influences weighing upon our economy. But we can attempt to offset their effects, by encouraging the growth of private sector domestic demand to try to keep overall demand in the economy growing in line with potential supply. And that in effect is what we have done through our recent interest rate cuts. This approach is not, however, without risks. It involves accepting – at least while the dampening external influences persist – a growing imbalance between the internationally-exposed and the domestically-oriented sectors. If we did not accept that, then overall demand and output would be lower, and inflation would tend to fall further below target. But the imbalance cannot continue to grow indefinitely. At some point the elastic is likely to break – quite possibly through a sharp exchange rate  2  BIS Review 56/2001  adjustment. And at that point, having deliberately stimulated domestic demand growth, we would need to rein it back. But we could then find its momentum hard to stop. I am not suggesting that we are necessarily approaching that point.

But in our own case this effect has been offset by the weakness of the euro – or by sterling's bilateral strength against the euro, if you prefer – which has dampened both external demand and our domestic price level. The result of these external developments – the global economic slowdown and the pattern of exchange rates taken together – for us has been that, notwithstanding only a rather modest slowdown of our overall economy, we have continued to see a growing imbalance between the internationally-exposed (particularly the euro-exposed) sectors, which have been having a rather torrid time, and the more heavily domestically-oriented sectors, which have been doing rather better. The weakness of manufacturing alongside continuing growth in the services sectors is a crude reflection of this imbalance. With inflation running somewhat below the Chancellor's symmetrical 2½% target, and with developing uncertainties about the continuing strength of domestic demand, the MPC was in a position to respond to these developments by reducing interest rates earlier this year. In fact we cut rates by ¾%, while the Federal Reserve cut much more aggressively, by 2½% over much the same period, and the European Central Bank by just ¼% – reflecting the different overall monetary conditions as they saw them in their respective currency areas. You might suppose that these relative interest rate movements would have encouraged the dollar to weaken against sterling and by more against the euro – and given the pattern of international imbalances it would have been helpful if they had.
Board members must also be able to participate actively in strategic discussions, to facilitate the flow and cross-fertilisation of ideas, and exercise effective oversight over the management. Thus in the US, the Federal Reserve Board inspects banks’ board minutes to determine if all board members are active and contribute to discussions on important matters. BIS Review 130/1999  1  Singapore banks are prudently managed and financially sound. According to the latest Moody’s ratings, they were collectively rated the ninth best in the world and best in Asia. But benchmarked against international best practices of corporate governance and disclosure, they still have some way to go. One major step we have taken is to require all local banks to appoint nominating committees within their boards, following common practice in the developed economies. The task of the nominating committees is to ensure that only the most competent and qualified individuals, who can contribute actively to the bank and discharge their responsibilities in the interests of all shareholders, are appointed to the board and to key management positions. Such appointments are not a one-off exercise, but a continuing requirement. In Singapore politics we have made self-renewal of leaders a norm. As a result the political leadership belongs to the same generation as the population, and stays vigorous, up to date, and in tune with the electorate. But self-renewal is necessary in every field, including banking. The boards of Singapore banks have done commendable jobs discharging their responsibilities.

In fact for the past seven years - starting well before the MPC came into existence - the UK economy as a whole has enjoyed the longest period of sustained low inflation that we’ve known in over a generation. Retail price inflation on the Government’s target measure has averaged 2.7% over that time (or only 2.1% on Europe’s HICP measure). Alongside low inflation we’ve also had the lowest nominal interest rates that most of us can remember. Short-term rates have averaged some 6¼% (fluctuating between 5 and 7½% over the period), compared with some 11¼% (fluctuating between 7 and 15%) over the previous decade. And ten-year government bond yields have fallen from nearly 9% on average in 1992 to around 5½% at the present time. But more than all that, we have also over the past seven years or so enjoyed the longest period of uninterrupted, quarter-by-quarter, economic growth in the UK as a whole since quarterly records began in 1955. Annual growth since 1992 has in fact averaged 2.8%, which is between ¼ and ½% above most estimates of our long-term underlying trend rate. Equally important, we have also enjoyed an almost continuous month-by-month fall in the rate of unemployment, on a claimant count basis, from a peak of some 10½% at the end of 1992 to the present rate of just over 4%. That is the lowest rate of unemployment on this measure since early 1980.
To achieve this, progress without delay is needed towards greater financial integration with, namely: the development of a capital markets union; the completion of the Banking Union with the creation of a common deposit insurance scheme; 15/16  the introduction of fiscal instruments that improve the whole of the euro area’s economic stabilisation capacity; and the creation of a common safe asset. We must also achieve healthy fiscal positions at the national level. These can enable budgetary policy to fully develop its stabilising role, resolutely tackle population ageing and address the structural shortcomings hampering productivity and the generation and harnessing of investment opportunities in the euro area. Lastly, macroprudential policies should be adopted when risks to financial stability are perceived and so buffers may be built up that can be used ahead of more adverse macroeconomic situations. Thank you. 16/16

Regional cooperation in different fields like food and energy security – focal points of today’s conference – might be initiated at a high political level, but its implementation requires an active, broader and more informed participation of private sector and civil society, as the main vehicles of cross-border cooperation. The expansion of each one’s participation has a double effect; it allows for more informed regional policies and faster project implementation, on one hand, and it cultivates an understanding that regional cooperation has a direct impact on everyday life and individual citizens’ welfare on the other hand. The Romans used to say “mens sana in corpore sano”. The way I see it, it greatly matters what you fuel your body with. Greater food production for an increasing population goes hand in hand with ensuring access to affordable, safe and nutritious food. The way food nourishes our bodies, energy fuels the economy. So, energy needs to be secure, affordable and sustainable. I could go further and stress once again that for a healthy economy there is a substantial need for a healthy financial and banking systems. However, today’s conference will not generate either solutions or concrete answers to the multiple of issues the food and energy security rises, but it will most certainly cast a new light on possible ways to handle the challenges ahead of us.
3  Aiyar, S., Bergthaler, W., Garrido, J. M., Ilyina, A., Jobst, A., Kang, K., Kovtun, D., Liu, Y., Monaghan, D. and Moretti, M., “A Strategy for Resolving Europe’s Problem Loans”, IMF Staff Discussion Note, September 2015. 4  Carcea, M. C., Ciriaci. D, Cuerpo, C., Lorenzani, D. and Pontuch. P., “The Economic Impact of Rescue and Recovery Frameworks in the EU”, European Economy Discussion Paper No 004, September 2015. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  To highlight the differences in insolvency frameworks across euro area member countries, let me mention a few country figures: in Slovakia it takes on average 4 years to resolve an insolvency case, while in Portugal it takes 2 years and in Ireland it takes less than 5 months. When looking at international practices, one can find three types of procedures through which firms can deal with debt restructuring: 1.  out-of-court procedures;  2.  hybrid preventive restructuring procedures; and  3.  formal insolvency or restructuring procedures. In the euro area countries formal insolvency procedures are very common, while out-of-court procedures have been much less used so far. However, voluntary out-of-court restructuring can provide a speedy, cost-effective and market-friendly alternative to court insolvency proceedings. This tool is particularly useful in cases where there is a lack of confidence in the institutional capacity to support the operation of the insolvency system.

We gladly assess that the topics presented fulfil the standards of a true scientific research, correctly addressing the hypothesis, and their validation is based on the application of contemporary research methodologies, while employing the statistical data in a correct and structured manner. As a result, reaching conclusions and the implications to decision-makers are analysed based on a diligent investigation work on various economic and financial events. After analysing the topics presented, the Assessment Commission has reached a unanimous decision on the winners of the first three prizes of "Governor's Award for the Best Diploma Thesis, 2022". Before awarding the prizes, I would like to congratulate and commend all the participants in competition for their interest, ideas, methods and conclusions, which were based on correct methodologies. The submitted materials are of a high level and the Assessment Commission was hard-pressed when selecting the winners. However, the three topics that will be presented stand out from the rest because of their importance and coherence, as well as for having fully employed the methodology, and diligently having applied and described the assessment methods, and the interesting findings. I encourage the winners and all the contestants in the competition to preserve and nurture the same passion and commitment further in their professional careers as shown in the submitted research works. Let's go ahead and present this turn winners.