samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In my view, these are the core areas where transparency in monetary policy is most important and they are the areas that are being increasingly practiced by central banks around the world. The Bank of Thailand, if I may add, is transparent in all of these six areas. As I noted, although the areas for transparency are well identified, the details and the practices adopted by central banks do differ and are not uniform. For example, while most central banks would have low and stable inflation as an objective of monetary policy, practice differs on how that objective is defined. This is to say some central banks announce numerical inflation targets and some don’t. This, of course, depends on the underlying monetary policy framework. In our case, the Bank of Thailand adopts inflation targeting as its monetary policy framework, so the Bank announces a numerical inflation target - that is core inflation to be kept between 0 - 3.5 percent averaging over a quarter. Some central banks publish detailed economic and inflation forecasts to guide the markets about their understandings of the economies and the risks that the economies face. The others do this but not in great detail. On this, the Bank of Thailand is in the former group. We publish assessments of the economy, the economic forecast, and the inflation outlook in the form of a quarterly inflation report. There is increasingly call for central banks to provide data ex post on their market operations and intervention.

[15] Schrimpf, A. et al., op. cit. ; Duffie, D., op. cit. ; Liang, J.N. (2020), “  Corporate Bond Market Dysfunction During COVID-19 and Lessons from the Fed’s Response”, Hutchins Center Working Papers, No 69, October. [16] Cera, K. et al. (2020), “The role of bank and non-bank interconnections in amplifying recent financial contagion”, Financial Stability Review, ECB, May. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp201119_1~4a1ff0daf9.en.html  6/7  20/11/2020  COVID-19 and the liquidity crisis of non-banks: lessons for the future  [17] Although LVNAV funds guarantee constant prices under normal market conditions, they are designed to lose this characteristic and convert into a variable net asset value (VNAV) fund if the price of the underlying assets changes by 20 basis points or more. The higher riskiness of the underlying assets was likely amplified by the risk of conversion into a VNAV fund, as a number of LVNAV funds were close to breaching the regulatory limits on net asset value during the recent period of volatility. Investors may therefore have redeemed early during the recent stress episode and contributed to additional outflows and liquidity shortages in these funds. [18] De Guindos, L. and Schnabel, I. (2020), “The ECB’s commercial paper purchases: A targeted response to the economic disturbances caused by COVID-19”, The ECB Blog, 3 April. [19] Swing pricing rules can discourage investors from selling shares in funds and can provide fund managers with additional time to adjust their portfolios, mitigating the risk of fire sales. There are mixed results in studies that assess the effectiveness of swing pricing.
We begin in Michigan in 1837, when the state legislature passed the first “free” banking law in the United States.2 Upon commencing business, free banks could issue banknotes—that is, private currencies—that were redeemable in specie—gold or silver.3 These banknotes were transferable debt backed by the general creditworthiness of the bank that issued them, plus assets like bonds and mortgages on real estate, and for a brief time, personal guarantees.4 The statute permitted bank organizers to establish a bank by filing an application with the local county treasurer and county clerk. They did not need approval from the state banking commissioner. (At the time, the United States had no federal banking supervisor.5 Indeed, the “free banking” era generally begins with Congress’s failure to recommission the Second Bank of the United States before its charter expired in 1836, and ends with the passage of the National Bank Act in 1863.) The result, predictably, was chaotic. The state banking commissioner was unsure of how many banks had even been established. 6 Some banks in Michigan were established with the intent to issue banknotes but without the intent to ever redeem them.7 By 1839 almost the entire system had collapsed. After closing down one bank in Michigan, the commissioner found shards of window glass, lead, and nails where he should have found gold and silver coin. 8 Some of these free banks became known as “wildcat” banks.

Large local banks, in turn, stopped lending to the smaller banks. Banks stopped lending to finance companies. The interbank market simply ceased to function for fear of default. In such a situation, the central bank had no way to act as lender of last resort. It could buy in government bonds, but the banks with bonds to sell are not the ones with liquidity need. Money did not go round. In such a situation, if instead the market for corporate bonds had existed, financial institutions would have had some corporate bonds in hand - instead of just boxes of loan contracts. They could have sold the bonds. They might incur some losses. But at least they can look after themselves in the midst of crisis - regardless of the perception about their credit. The local bond markets in emerging Asia, therefore, is an important safeguard that can help prevent a crisis. And since we want the Asian countries to become more and more closely linked, lack of crisis is certainly good news. The bond market is a much better channel for capital flow than the bank channel. If capital comes in through the banks, foreign lenders may lend too much. They may bet on the eventual government bail out. On the other hand, if it comes through the bond market and if it is transparent and well-managed, resource allocation could be improved. However, for the local bond markets to be attractive to foreign investors, one has to accomplish many things.
And even if they could replicate them, humans might still prefer humans to carry them out. The future could see a world of work in which EQ rivals IQ for skill supremacy. Professions involving high degrees of personal and social interaction – such as health, caring, education and leisure – could see demand rise. Indeed, it is possible the balance between cognitive and social skills might alter significantly even among jobs which traditionally have been cognitively-intense. Take medicine. The doctor of the future might be valued far less for their clinical competence in diagnosing illness and prescribing solutions. In a world of individual medical records and data-hungry diagnostic algorithms, much of the process of diagnosis and prescription might fall to machine rather than human. Indeed, the UK Prime Minister has recently suggested a strategy to deliver just that. 60  But that is unlikely by itself to eradicate the need for doctors. Patients are still likely to want to discuss their diagnosis and prescription. And they will want this advice delivered personally and empathetically. In surveys of patient satisfaction it is a doctor’s bedside manner, rather than clinical competence, that matters most. 61  In future, that balance between social and clinical skills may shift further. And, most likely, those  social skills will be demanded from flesh-and-blood rather than robo-doctors. If both the nature of a career and the skills it requires are changing, does this carry implications for educational institutions? That seems likely.

It was only by acquiring these skills that workers could transition to where new jobs were being created. By keeping one step ahead of the machine, technological unemployment could be avoided. A shorter, more seamless skills transition reduced the hit to workers’ incomes and lowered the risk of skills atrophy, which might otherwise cause lasting damage to employment. This social infrastructure might be called “enabling” institutions. Another set of institutions provided workers with support to cushion the hit to their finances and well-being during the painful and lengthy period of job transition. This might be financial support, in income or loans. It might be housing or shelter. Or it might be social or emotional support. This social insurance ensured that lives were underpinned, inequalities held in check and the social fabric held together. It reduced recession risk, for individuals and for societies. These might be called “insuring” institutions. 32  29  Allen (2005) documents the stagnation of real wages in Britain from 1800 to 1840. IMF (2017). 31 Allen (2009) discusses Engels’ pause in the context of the British economy from 1760 to 1913. 32 Of course, many other institutions played a role in the labour market beyond the “enabling” and “insuring” ones mentioned here. For example, the ‘Poor Laws’ in the 1800s meant that the poor had to enter workhouses with terrible conditions to receive help in the form of clothes and food.
The change is particularly noticeable in several key sectors such as telecommunication (mobile phones in particular), transportation (particularly airlines) and the power-supply industry (electricity and gas) to only mention a few of them. Major countries have embarked on an ambitious overhaul of their public sector. In countries with a large public sector, such as Italy or France, ambitious privatization programs have steadily reduced the number of state enterprises (banking and insurance sectors, manufacturing sector…). It is noteworthy that these programs have been carried out by various governments with different political orientation. In addition to privatization, state enterprises are changing; companies that remain government owned are becoming more profit-minded (particularly airlines, railways…). 2.3  European firms are restructuring and entering further into the global competition  European firms are going through a deep restructuring. Mergers and acquisitions have hit new records as companies seek to create national, regional or global market-leaders (M&As close to $ in 1999 against 500bn in 1997). Venture capital and start-ups are booming as investors and entrepreneurs become more convinced that Europe can compete with America in knowledge-based industries. Heavy industries and large conglomerates are restructuring as never before. Finally, new rules on corporate governance are spreading over. The outflows of foreign direct investments merely mirror the dynamism of European firms. European firms were lagging behind US firms in terms of foreign direct investments and they are catching up. European firms have entered in a “globalization process” whereby they aim to reach a global size through external purchases.

When one knows all about a particular “signature” or about a particular country, there is much less reason to embark into blind crisis contagion. Here is the motto I would like to be 5  BIS Review 52/2000  accepted globally by market participants: “Let us judge the quality and creditworthiness of any particular signature upon its own peculiar fundamentals, upon its own, particular, assets and liabilities”. –  On the euro, I want to stress that the euro zone has adopted a sound macro policy and has embarked in a fairly comprehensive program of structural reforms. These reforms will take time to be fully completed. But they have already boosted economic growth, job creation and the restructuring of firms. I am impressed by what has been achieved during the past years and National Central Banks as well as the ECB are strongly encouraging governments and corporate businesses to foster structural reforms and business restructuring in the future. The Eurosystem, which is the guardian of the euro for the sake of the people of Europe, knows that our fellow citizens want the single currency to be at least as solid as were their previous national currencies: in France, to give only one example, 96% of the people are calling for the euro to be at least as solid as the Franc; needless to say that it is the same in Germany and in all other countries of the Monetary Union.
Oil prices have increased reflecting fears of supply disruption and heightened risk premium, but some non-oil commodity prices have fallen in response to concerns about weakening demand. 9  This group covers the BRIC economies plus 22 other emerging and newly industrialised economies. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  economies is playing an increasing role. These economies account for a little under 20% of the UK’s imports. So if inflation remains elevated in these countries this could have a material impact on domestic inflation. Under some circumstances, we may expect the impact of high inflation in overseas’ economies to be offset by a corresponding depreciation in their exchange rates. But where economies operate pegged exchange rate regimes it is far from clear that this can be relied upon, at least in the near term. A third external factor which could add to domestic inflation is if there is further pass-through from the past depreciation of sterling. Our central view is that there has been close to 100% pass through in terms of the direct impact of higher import prices on to consumer prices. But it is hard to be precise about the exact degree of pass-through, and the range of estimates included in the February Inflation Report suggest that pass through to date may be as low as two-thirds.

Caleb M Fundanga: The MDG-consistent monetary policies Talking notes by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the official opening of the UNDP organised workshop on Macroeconomic Analysis and Modelling in Support of Millenium Development Goals-Based Planning, Lusaka, 29 October 2007. *  *  *  Introduction First and foremost, I would like to thank the UNDP through the Resident Representative, Mr Aeneas C. Chuma, for inviting me to say a few remarks at the opening of this important international workshop on “Macroeconomic Analysis and Modelling in support of Millennium Development Goal (MDG)-Based Planning”. Let me also welcome you all, especially those who have traveled from other countries to come and attend this workshop. I understand that the aim of this workshop is to strengthen the foundation laid for MDGBased planning processes in Africa on the issues of pro-poor polices and macroeconomic modelling and to explain what an MDG-Consistent Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) is all about. The workshop is also intended to sensitise and enhance your knowledge of pro-poor policies in the context of MDG-Based planning and strengthen understanding and skills in MDG-Consistent Macroeconomic Modelling and MTEF.
By way of example: geopolitical considerations, present and future macroeconomic scenarios, regulatory and supervisory developments, technological developments and the emergence of new competitors. The bank must also take into account its starting point, its strengths and weaknesses, and how it compares with its peers. As you all know, new competitors need not be other banks, but the so-called fintech companies, which are destined to exert pressure on and accelerate the ongoing technological renewal of financial institutions. Undoubtedly, therefore, part of banks’ strategic drive should focus on how to face this challenge and the competition. 4/8  I would next like to address four key aspects from the strategic standpoint: capital; the legacy of non-productive assets; liquidity; and governance. As regards capital, while Spanish banks have strengthened their capital base and, consequently, have improved their ratios in recent years, duly meeting the minimum requirements, there are no grounds for complacency. Firstly, although the current situation is that Spanish banks have, on average, high asset density (measured by their risk-weighted assets) and low leverage levels, it is also a fact that they continue to have lower capital ratios than their European peers. On EBA data for March 2018, Spanish institutions’ CET1 solvency ratios are below the EU average at that date (14.4%). This shows that Spanish banks must continue making headway in one of the key elements of the new rules of play, namely that they must have more and better-quality capital than before the financial crisis.

Growth in the domestic facing sectors is likely to taper, as consumer demand slows in the face of higher interest rates and more moderate wage increases. Singapore's GDP growth for 2023 is expected to slow to a below-trend pace within MTI's current forecast range. Consequently, the output gap is estimated to turn mildly negative, to around -0.5%, from the positive 0.6% recorded last year. Inflation in Singapore has clearly peaked and has discernibly moderated. In assessing inflation trends, it is instructive to focus on month-on-month momentum and price trends going forward rather than year-ago averages. Core inflation on a month-on-month seasonally adjusted annualised basis has come down sharply, to 3.6% in May 2023 from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The disinflation has been broad-based across most components in the core CPI basket. Notably, imported inflation has turned negative, reflecting the decline in global energy and food prices and the effects of a stronger Singapore Dollar. Even excluding oil, whose prices have fallen most sharply, imported inflation was minus 1.2% in May this year. The fall in inflation momentum is gradually translating to lower year-on-year inflation. Core inflation on a year-on-year basis moderated to 4.8% in Apr-May from 5.4% in Q1. Headline inflation slowed to 5.4% from 6.1% over the same period. Singapore should see further reductions in inflation by the end of the year. One, imported inflation should remain negative over the rest of the year.
But in a situation where we are going to have much longer lives, it is critical that we have the ability to earn a living and to save money over more years, so as to provide security and assurance through our retirement years. 22. It’s true everywhere in the world. Some countries have already recognised it through legislation. Denmark is a good example, of having linked their retirement age and pension age to life expectancy. Sweden intends to follow. Several other countries are considering the same thing. 23. But it is not just about pushing back the retirement age or pension age. It is critical that we make it attractive for older citizens to work. That means not just providing jobs but rearranging the work place so that it becomes part of the culture to have older persons, experienced persons, in the team, in the work place. The culture of the work place has to change and the culture of the consumers has to change in a whole range of industries so as to accept and celebrate the presence of older persons at work. 24. So that’s one important reform over the next 10 to 15 years – enabling older persons to work for longer, it may be full time or part time, but make it attractive to work. 25. The second important reform concerns the financial industry. We have to reduce the costs that ordinary savers face in saving for the retirement. 26.

So we have had a limited supply of insurance coverage, that has itself led to higher cost of protection, which in turn discourages demand for insurance against catastrophe risks. 38. But we can solve this problem. We can overcome the fragmentation of data in Asia, pool data so as to facilitate more efficient underwriting of catastrophe risks. Here too, we have an initiative in Singapore called the Natural Catastrophe Data Analytics Exchange (Nat Cat DAX). •  Nat Cat DAX is a public-private partnership, involving several leading global insurers, the public sector and our research institutes;  •  It is using high resolution data obtained through remote sensing technologies – from satellites, drones and UAVs – and combining that with industry data to much richer database on natural disasters;  •  We welcome more in the industry to join the founding members in this initiative. Cyber insurance 39. The third major, emerging opportunity is in cyber insurance. The good news is that Asia is the most rapidly growing digital market globally. But it also means increasing costs of cyber attacks. This is a global problem, and we face it here in Asia. The frequency, sophistication  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  and the sheer audacity of cyber-attacks is growing. It will pose huge costs to our economies, and to corporate and personal privacy. 40.
In Banking Banana Survey this year indicated that technology risk rose from no. 18 in 2012 survey to no. 4 due to a high increase in the frequency and sophistication of cyber-attacks. Financial institutions have exposed to all risks of technology security: access risk, accuracy risk, availability risk, and agility risk. Concerning the systemic risks, the Bank of Thailand as a regulator established the IT principle called “SIA”, which stands for Security, Integrity and Availability that covers infrastructure protection at the prevention stage of both physical and logical controls: CCTV / access control; firewall, IDS / IPS, AntiVirus and password, respectively. In the arrangement of contingency plan, all systems will be tested or reviewed regularly. Furthermore, key risk indicators and risk tolerance will be closely monitored, and loss data collection will be reported to the board of directors and the Bank of Thailand. Lastly, the Bank of Thailand has to correct the IT contingency plan implementation. Additionally, market conduct will serve as an alignment to each stage to determine customer protection by sharing correct information and suggestions to customers; and by interacting with customers’ complains. As a central bank, we wish to support more on inter-operability for both wholesale and retail which is a part of standard setting I mentioned earlier: for example, standardized codes for all banks and real sector.

They have a lot of stories and messages to tell, waiting for us to look up close and decipher their meanings and symbolism. Therefore, I urge all of you to take your time to marvel at the wonders of banknotes on exhibit today. I hope this exhibition will open our eyes to view banknotes from a different perspective, to have a greater understanding why banknotes have always exuded a strong sense of pride, prestige and sovereignty of the issuing country. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches