samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The SNB’s loan to the StabFund stood at USD 20.8 billion at end-October 2009, a reduction of USD 5 billion – almost one-fifth – on the initial figure. The funds to repay the loan came from repayments and earnings on the assets, and from proceeds of asset sales. The StabFund came to the market for the first time in June 2009. The market’s more positive performance made it possible for occasional sales to a total value of USD 1.5 billion to be conducted by the end of October 2009. Contingent liabilities declined by USD 4.7 billion, mainly as credit default swaps (CDS) expired or were prematurely terminated. At the end of November 2009, non-funded assets totalled USD 4.1 billion. Total risk exposure fell by USD 10.2 billion to USD 24.5 billion. Changes in the SNB’s risk exposure with respect to the StabFund are summarised in table 1. One effect of the recovery in the financial markets that began this spring was to trigger rises in the market values of most of the investment categories held in the StabFund. This development, together with the results of a comprehensive cash flow projection for the entire portfolio, confirm the SNB in its view that it has unimpaired prospects of receiving repayment of the loan in full. However, these calculations are bedevilled by great uncertainty – and the risk to the SNB remains substantial. As the StabFund values much of its portfolio at amortised cost, the recovery in the financial markets has only modest effects on its financial reporting.

The cumulated loss at the end of the third quarter (since 1 October 2008) was USD 4.4 billion. Equity capital reported thus remains negative, though this loss was entirely covered at the time by the secondary loss protection – the warrant for the purchase of 100 million UBS shares at nominal value. By the end of the StabFund’s first financial year it will have largely completed the build-up of its operating activities. In the last few months, following the asset transfer phase between December 2008 and April 2009, the asset management process was set up, risk monitoring and financial reporting expanded, and an internal control system and operational risk management introduced. These processes will be further improved next year, with asset management taking on a key role. While the intrinsic values of the assets represent a key element in managing the portfolio, the process must not be merely mechanistic. Now that it has been possible to sell off some of the more liquid assets over the last few months, attention will focus more closely on two tasks: minimising the larger concentration risks, and ensuring that – as the portfolio is disposed of – the best possible equilibrium is maintained in various respects, including the degree of liquidity of its holdings. Broadening participation in the Swiss franc repo market The unsecured money market collapsed when the financial crisis broke out in August 2007 and it has not properly recovered to this day.
As of 2012, euro area inflation started falling again, and has continued to do so to date. Since October 2013, the year-on-year rate of growth of the headline HICP has oscillated between 1% and 0.5%, in spite of the slowly consolidating economic recovery. A situation of low inflation is now common to many advanced economies, creating a moral general puzzle. All in all, the lack of a tight relationship between inflation developments and estimates of slack in economic activity, such as the output gap, is not surprising from the point of view of modern monetary theories. The new Keynesian Phillips curve suggests that, net of erratic factors, inflation is determined by the whole path of expected future output gaps, not just its current level. Hence, economic slack at any given point in time need not be associated with a deflationary episode, if it is accompanied by expectations that the output gap will eventually turn sufficiently positive. In turn, expectations of the future stance of monetary policy play a key role in determining expected future output gaps. The absence of persistent disinflation in 2009 may thus be ascribed to the monetary accommodation imparted by many central banks between the end of 2008 and 2009 through both standard and non-standard tools. The monetary policy easing was commensurate to the size of the shock, i.e.

In this case, we can expect that in the third and fourth quarters economic activity will be recovering quarter-on-quarter. The economic situation will be returning to normal step-by-step. The direct adverse impact of the restrictions primarily falls on this quarter, while their secondary effects will continue to manifest in the future. According to our surveys, over 80% of the businesses across various industries have been experiencing the influence of the coronavirus pandemic and current 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  restrictions. Companies’ business sentiment has materially declined. It will take time to restore business processes, logistics and production chains, offset the reduction in profit and revenue, build up reserves and savings that have been used to a greater or lesser extent over the second quarter. Combined with uncertainty regarding potential changes in the external environment, this will limit production, investment and consumer activity. In these conditions, GDP will shrink yearon-year in the third and fourth quarters, that is the annual rate of economic growth will be negative. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, GDP will overall decrease by 4–6% in 2020. The major contributor to this reduction will be a decline in exports that may reach from 10% to 15%. Moreover, fixed capital investment will also substantially decrease (by 6– 10%) compared to the previous year. Companies will be primarily using their financial resources to restore their daily operations. Uncertainty about the prospects of domestic and external demand will be confining investment plans.
Futures prices have also risen markedly, indicating expectations of a sustained increase in metal prices similar to the increase in oil prices. Prices for fresh farmed salmon have also exhibited a pronounced rise. Rising commodity prices and buoyant activity in markets that are important for Norway have fuelled growth in the Norwegian economy, even though growth has been low in some of Norway’s most important export markets. Overall, prices for our imported goods are falling in relation to prices for goods we export. Norway’s terms of trade are improving. The impact of the rise in oil and gas prices is particularly strong, but the terms-of-trade gains for the mainland economy have also been high. The domestic economy is partly insulated thanks to the oil fund mechanism. The situation in Norway differs from that of its Nordic neighbour countries. Sales of Swedish and Finnish high-tech products are growing strongly in volume terms, but prices are falling. Denmark has a diversified business sector, which is overall moving on a steady path. Growth among our trading partners remains solid. High commodity prices are exerting upward pressure on consumer price inflation in a number of countries, although underlying inflation remains low. Economic growth in the US probably picked up again in the first quarter. In Japan, growth appears to be solid. In the euro area, confidence indicators point to optimism in the business sector. There is a broad-based expansion in the Swedish economy, while some indicators in the UK have shown weak developments.

Svein Gjedrem: Business cycles and monetary policy Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), for Norges Bank’s regional network, arranged by the Centre for Economic Research at NTNU – Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim, Fosen, 3 May 2006. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 26 April, Inflation Report 1/06 and on previous speeches. The  Charts in pdf-format can be found on the Norges Bank’s website. *  *  *  Introduction Monetary policy in Norway is oriented towards low and stable inflation, with annual consumer price inflation of close to 2.5 per cent over time. This is also the most important contribution monetary policy can make to sound economic developments in the long term. Low and stable inflation provides the economy with a nominal anchor. This contributes to predictability for agents who make decisions about saving and investment today, although the result depends on economic developments ahead. In its conduct of monetary policy, Norges Bank operates a flexible inflation targeting regime, so that weight is given to both variability in inflation and variability in output and employment. Flexible inflation targeting builds a bridge between the long-term objective of monetary policy, which is to keep inflation on target and provide an anchor for inflation expectations, and the more short-term objective of stability in the real economy.
Combined with high productivity growth, this has resulted in high corporate earnings and solid growth in employment. Utilisation of production resources in the economy, labour and fixed assets, has increased markedly since summer 2003. Enterprises in Norges Bank’s regional network report high capacity utilisation and limited capacity in most industries and regions and, as mentioned, a shortage of labour in almost all industries. Some municipalities have reported that the number of vacancies is higher than the number of job-seekers. There are also reports of shortages of other factor inputs. Not since the 1970s have there been such frequent reports of purely physical production constraints. Reports from enterprises in Region Central Norway are not very different from the rest of the country. All industries report solid growth. Growth appears to be strongest in retail trade and services, while the building and construction sector reports only moderate growth. Continued growth is expected, but capacity problems are a constraint on growth in a number of industries. An increasing number of enterprises report that they have limited available capacity. For most enterprises, the labour supply is the most important constraint. Investment is expected to continue growing in all industries and in the local government sector. Employment is also growing, except in the building and construction industry, where employment growth now appears to have levelled off. Enterprises expect appreciably higher wage growth than at the same time last year. Enterprises state that higher pay is an important edge in the competition for labour.

Gent Sejko: Role of the banking industry in the future development of Albania - challenges and opportunities Address by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, to the discussion meeting with senior banking sector officials, Tirana, 29 May 2019. * * *  Dear banking system executives, Dear guests, dear colleagues, I have the pleasure of welcoming you to this event, which brings us together to address some issues of particular importance to the banking sector and the Albanian economy as a whole. Today, we will be discussing the role of the banking sector in the development of Albania’s economy, from short, medium, and long-term perspectives. This is, in our opinion, a matter of both private and public interest. I am confident that the discussions around this table will yield a tangible product. Our aim is to adopt a common development philosophy that will guide the banking industry into the future, as well as to agree on a concrete and detailed plan of measures for improving the quantity and quality of lending and enriching the array of financial products. This meeting takes place only two weeks after the Third Conference of the Albanian Association of Banks, which was dedicated to the sustainable development of the banking sector in the future.
For more information, see the Bank of England’s response to the Future of Finance Review available at: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/future-finance. 13 In recent years we have expanded access to our balance sheet to central counterparties and broker-dealers to recognise the important role played by these firms in the provision of critical financial services to the real economy. In providing these critical functions, both broker-dealers and CCPs are exposed to liquidity risk. As the supplier of the economy’s most liquid asset, central bank money, the Bank is able to be a ‘back-stop’ provider of liquidity, and can therefore provide liquidity insurance to the financial system, promoting financial stability. 14 Oliver Wyman: Fintech 2.0 Paper: rebooting financial services (June 2015) and McKinsey: Global Payments report (2016). 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  5  retailers. As designed, Libra may substantially improve financial inclusion and dramatically lower the costs of domestic and cross border payments.15 The Bank of England approaches Libra with an open mind but not an open door. Unlike social media for which standards and regulations are being debated well after they have been adopted by billions of users, the terms of engagement for innovations such as Libra must be adopted in advance of any launch Libra, if it achieves its ambitions, would be systemically important. As such it would have to meet the highest standards of prudential regulation and consumer protection. It must address issues ranging from anti-money laundering to data protection to operational resilience.

The same is true for your Study group: you are about to release a seemingly very attractive study on “net worth at risk” which aims at describing the ability of companies to face an external financial shock, with a focus on recent years: it will certainly attract a lot of attention when you publish this work. As it is time to conclude, I would like first to confirm that BDF, a founding member of the ECCSBO, is still very dedicated in all that is related with corporate analysis. Your presence here today is certainly the expression of a commitment similar to our own one; it is a good augur for your future works and an encouragement for our joint efforts to be pursued. Finally, I would like to thank personally President Manuel Ortega because I know all what you do to keep the dynamics of this Committee. Many thanks also to all of you for being here today, for your support and your participation in this meeting, because I have  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  no doubt that you will have fruitful debates. If I may, I would add a special thanks for my colleagues from the Companies Directorate and for the protocol office, who deployed a lot of efforts in organising this event for the better: without their help we wouldn’t have been able to meet at this venue. Thank you for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
BIS central bankers’ speeches  19  Table 2 Projected equity home bias for G20 countries(a) (2010–50)(b)(c) Advanced G20  2010  2020  2030  2040  2050  USA  0.51  0.44  0.36  0.24  0.09  UK  0.53  0.47  0.41  0.33  0.22  Germany  0.41  0.33  0.26  0.17  0.03  France  0.53  0.46  0.38  0.27  0.13  Italy  0.45  0.39  0.34  0.31  0.23  Japan  0.81  0.75  0.67  0.60  0.51  Canada  0.59  0.53  0.46  0.35  0.22  Australia  0.70  0.62  0.53  0.41  0.26  Weighted average  0.56  0.49  0.41  0.30  0.16  Un-weighted average  0.57  0.50  0.43  0.34  0.21  Argentina  0.55  0.48  0.38  0.25  0.09  China  0.96  0.93  0.87  0.79  0.67  South Africa  0.78  0.74  0.68  0.58  0.45  Mexico  0.88  0.82  0.75  0.66  0.54  South Korea  0.82  0.74  0.68  0.61  0.51  Brazil  0.92  0.87  0.80  0.72  0.61  Turkey  0.87  0.81  0.73  0.64  0.52  Russia  0.97  0.91  0.83  0.73  0.62  India  0.99  0.98  0.95  0.89  0.80  Indonesia  0.97  0.95  0.91  0.84  0.75  Weighted average  0.93  0.89  0.84  0.77  0.68  Un-weighted average  0.87  0.82  0.76  0.67  0.56  Weighted average  0.65  0.62  0.61  0.57  0.49  Un-weighted average  0.74  0.68  0.61  0.52  0.40  Emerging G20  Total G20  Source: IMF International Financial Statistics, IMF WEO database October 2010, S&P Global Stock Markets Factbook (2010), updated and extended version of dataset constructed by Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2007), Thompson DataStream, UN Census Bureau, Penn World Tables and Bank calculations.

The theme of this Conference, Financial integration and inclusive development, is particularly timely at this current juncture of the world economy. Global economic growth is at its lowest level since the global financial crisis, partly as a consequence of the high level of uncertainty surrounding trade and international relations. This weakness of the global economic landscape is adding to the new challenges that have emerged over the last decades: population aging, migration, security threats, the emergence of new economic and political powers, and climate change, to mention only some. And this evolution has taken place in an era of increasing globalization, that is being threatened by the emergence 2/3  of protectionist measures, and of digitalization and rapid development of new technologies. Together, these developments constitute a new frontier for policies that make it necessary to promote mutual understanding and make extensive coordinated efforts in the field of policies. In order to preserve the benefits derived from financial interconnectedness and technological innovation, it is now of the essence to put in place an internationally agreed response that allows to achieve the benefits of innovation while ensuring the mitigation of its potential risks. Policy-makers have the responsibility to support the research and analysis to base to foster growth and fight inequalities. In this Conference we are going to debate on a number of challenges that our countries are currently facing: from technological innovations in finance to migration flows in search for better opportunities, going through increasing financial interdependences or the need of boosting financial education.
2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Both the Banking Union and the Capital Markets Union are the key components of what we call with Jens Weidmann a genuine “Financing Union for Investment and Innovation”: this idea is a way of better channeling our abundant resources – our EUR 340 billion savings surplus in 2018 – towards the concrete needs of the European economy: the energy transition, SMEs’ equity or digital innovation. This unified branding has the merit of highlighting the purposes of this Union to the general public: investment and innovation, or in other words the financing of the future. III. Some pillars of a European financial sovereignty In the longer run, we should build three key pillars of the future European financial sovereignty. First of all, the EU needs to strengthen its position as rule maker through enhanced equivalence regimes. Brexit has given new momentum to this topic: a comprehensive reassessment of current equivalence regimes is essential given the scope of the relationships between the EU and the UK. Beyond the issue of Brexit, the review of equivalence regimes also provides an opportunity to improve them. There is a need for greater transparency in the procedure for granting equivalences, within a comprehensive institutional framework. The monitoring and control of equivalence decisions could also be improved by granting more power to ESAs, and by providing the European Commission with more gradual options through flexible tools in the case of regulatory divergence: for example, temporary, partial or conditional lifting of equivalences.

The vast number of bank branches around this part of the city also confirms the stiff competition in the banking sector and we hope that the public will be the ultimate winner though affordable products and services. Ladies and Gentlemen, it is a well known fact that bank branch expansion programs play an important role in increasing access to the unbanked. However, there is need to complement physical branch expansion with other product innovation programmes that will capture a lot more people in the remote areas of our country. The real challenge for all of us is how to enhance savings mobilisation, and effectively channel the public’s savings to its most productive use. I therefore encourage banks to offer an expanded range of innovative banking products in order to mobilise savings to support financing of economic activities in all parts of the country. Distinguished Guests, the banking sector in this country has, over the last few years, witnessed significant growth in consumer lending. As a matter of fact, on a sectoral basis the “personal loan” category has been the largest recipient of total credit and accounted for 24% of at end-October 2009. The resultant credit expansion has no doubt brought significant benefits to the economy. However, the secondary effects of the recent global economic crisis pose a real challenge to the banking sector through increased non-performing loans. For instance, non-performing loans were recorded at 7.2% as at December 2008 but has almost doubled as at September 2009 to 13.1%.
What is less represented, but in no way less relevant, is the potential for external players to suppress national autonomy. Let me elaborate. Despite great strides in global integration bringing the benefits of reduced inter-country disparities, differences still exist. As much as we can categorise economies based on common characteristics, be it by geography, or by level of development, no two countries are identical. Even if countries may seem similar, their reaction to a certain phenomenon, in all likelihood, will not be the same. This reminded me of the doctor-patient relationship, grounded by the classical “Principle of Biomedical Ethics” that emphasises respect for the patients’ autonomy. A doctor may well know all the treatment options available, and would prefer some over others, but it is ultimately the wishes of the patient that needs to be considered. The doctor, rather than vehemently working against the patient, should upon exploration of options and sharing of information, wholeheartedly respect and support the decision of the patient. Underlying this bilateral covenant is the crucial recognition of the shared humanity of doctors and patients. In a similar manner, we can all agree that as policymakers and regulators, macroeconomic and financial stability is a shared goal. We have been very grateful for the wealth of information and quality of debate that multilateral institutions bring to the table, which have immensely aided our decision-making process. However, individual countries should not be starved of policy autonomy to manage challenges.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated some of these factors, amplifying the challenges that the world economy, and therefore the economic and monetary authorities, will now have to contend with. But beyond the impact on the global economic outlook, the war has struck the largest blow to the international economic order since the Second World War. This dramatic event has thrown into relief the need to reinvigorate and bolster the foundations of multilateralism, which are the set of rules and values that we have established to ensure peace and prosperity. But we should also view this as a chance to give fresh impetus to international cooperation, which has contributed so much to global progress in recent decades. Such impetus means strengthening the international institutions, many of  1  which date back to the mid-20th century, so that they can respond more effectively to the new crises, such as the global financial crisis and the pandemic crisis, which are more global in nature than the typically regional crises of past decades. International institutions should equip themselves, in their respective field of competence, with the appropriate tools to prevent and respond to systemic crises. In addition, the global nature of processes such as the green transition and digitalisation means these institutions must adapt in readiness to deal with these challenges and help attain the goals and fulfil the commitments we have set ourselves in these areas.