samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
One year on, we have seen a significant number of market participants from all over the 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  world using the Statement as a means to demonstrate adherence to the Code. To lead by example, many central banks, including MAS, have also issued Statements and published these on our websites. Central banks have also requested that our FX counterparties issue the Statement. Many FXCs have linked membership of the FXC with Code adherence. These efforts have resulted in a “bumper crop” of Statements being issued at the one-year anniversary of the Code. We have also seen about 12 public registers being established in response to market demand. These are repositories where market participants can publish their Statements, to publicly demonstrate adherence to the Code. In addition, the GFXC launched a Global Index of Public Registers (or the Global Index) in May this year, which links these public registers. The Global Index has a search function which enables the quick identification of market participants that have published Statements on the participating public registers. As at mid-August, the Global Index had about 420 Statements, from 9 participating public registers. The GFXC is continuing with efforts to include more public registers, and this will be an important and highly visible way to track adherence progress to the Code. The GFXC has also been expanding its membership to include more jurisdictions. From the original 8 FXCs, we have seen a number of new FXCs being established in the last year.

Rising commodity prices are an indicator of strengthening demand around the globe. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3    Higher energy prices likely to boost overall inflation in the near term. Whether energy and commodity prices raise inflationary levels for the medium term depends on the persistence of the commodity price rises.   Because commodity price changes have shown less persistence over the last 20 or more years, economists have seen little evidence of pass-through of higher commodity prices into underlying inflation (Chart 39). In the past, sustained rising prices for energy and commodities have been tempered over time by business and household adopting more energy-efficient practices, as well as investment in and adoption of substitute sources. Sixth, what does the market expect the Federal Reserve to do in the near-term? The last statement of the Federal Open Market Committee said:   The Committee…continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.   Current market expectations, inferred from the federal funds (overnight interest rate) futures curve, are that:      The Fed will purchase the full $ billion of Treasury securities by mid 2011.   The Fed will begin to raise the federal funds rate in the second half of 2011 (Chart 41). The Committee has stressed that policy is conditional on the performance of the economy.
As I noted at the beginning of my intervention, my purpose today is not to describe Basel II, but rather to highlight those elements of the framework that set in motion dynamic processes that will enhance banks’ safety, efficiency and soundness, thereby strengthening the stability of the financial system as a whole and ensuring that it can better serve as a source for credit and growth for the economy. The comprehensive framework of Basel II provides four transmission channels for influencing financial stability: first, by setting more risk-sensitive minimum regulatory capital requirements, so that regulatory capital is both adequate and closer to economic capital; second, by providing incentives to encourage improvements in banks’ internal risk management processes; third, the enhanced mechanisms to encourage the marketplace to exert external discipline on banks and the banking sector; and fourth, the necessary greater co-operation among supervisors across jurisdictions. Through these channels, Basel II should remove distortions potentially hindering capital flows, improve the efficiency of the allocation process, and increase the stability and resilience of the financial system. The way I see this improved dynamic “risk-based efficiency”, as I would call it, is that, given the same situation of an economy in terms of risk appetite and risk absorption capacity, the financial system will be able to provide more and better allocated financing flows, something that may help to increase the potential growth of the economy, without reducing the safety and soundness of the system.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the subprime mortgage crisis had already erupted in mid 2007, and by March 2008 an important financial institution, Bear Stearns, had collapsed. An important point of this preamble of the facts of September 2008 is that the string of events I just mentioned had no significant effect on economic expectations, nor did it change the mean of expected growth or increase uncertainty. This, despite the fact that the Bear Stearns bankruptcy was a very significant occurrence for the international financial market. Actually, the volatility of stock markets went up a rung in mid-2007, but was pretty mild if compared with September 2008 (Figure 4). This stock volatility index (VIX), which is normally used as a  4  BIS Review 76/2009  good indicator of uncertainty, 5 shows how it increased several times during the peak of the crisis in September and October of last year. The latest figures show uncertainty declining, although it remains high. Thus, according to market consensus, world growth for 2008-2009 posted no significant changes between March and September of 2008 (Figure 5). The situation in Chile did not differ much (Figure 6). During the whole of 2007, growth projections for 2008 fluctuated around 5 percent, even after the eruption of the housing crisis in the United States. At the time of Bear Stearns’ bankruptcy there had been some adjustment in expected growth for the year, but in September there was even a slight correction upwards. The Bank’s forecasts were similar.
The high proportion of imports means that much of the government spending dissipates abroad. It has been empirically demonstrated that the fiscal multiplier in small open economies is zero or even negative. 13 The impact is further reduced if the shock does not originate in the domestic economy, but from outside – as was the case in the most recent crisis. The crisis has confirmed the limits of discretionary fiscal policy stabilisation. For example, the measures adopted by the Confederation in 2009 and 2010 could not be implemented fully and in a targeted way. 14 Swiss monetary policy has also made an important contribution to economic stability. It is also subject to binding rules. For example, the requirement to ensure price stability is enshrined in the National Bank Act and is defined in the SNB’s monetary policy strategy, which has been in force since 2000 (cf. chart 8). 15 The SNB equates price stability with a rise in the national consumer price index of less than 2% a year. Moreover, the SNB’s independence is enshrined in the Federal Constitution. This requires it to operate without political pressure. As a counterweight to this independence, the SNB has a duty of accountability; it must report regularly to the government and the general public on monetary policy matters. Thus, monetary policy is also equipped with good rules, and this is reflected in a high degree of stability. By international standards, Switzerland has very low inflation rates and low interest rates.

Deposit and credit growth of the banking sector continued, with revival in the lending to the corporate sector, accompanied with a decline of the NPL ratio in the first quarter of 2018 to 5.1%, due to claims collection. Current account deficit in 2017 additionally reduced to 1.3% of GDP, reflecting the positive contribution of the foreign capital companies on the export side, which indicates further strengthening of the economic fundamentals. Regarding the recommendation from the last year’s dialogue, the central bank prepared draft strategies for NPLs management and strengthening the use of local currency, both agreed 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  with the Ministry of Finance and currently subject to consultation with other relevant stakeholders. In both areas, as already being confirmed in the assessments and final conclusions, we have already achieved tangible results; however the adoption of these comprehensive strategies will put in place additional mechanisms to deal with these issues. In light of the challenging time that we have faced in recent years, we need to point to the maintenance of price and financial stability as important pillars of the macroeconomic stability, as well as the need to continue strengthening the fundamentals and resilience of the economy. Implementation of structural reforms and strengthening institutional capacities, including sound public finances, should remain main priorities for faster income convergence and EU integration. Thank you! 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
By transferring risks to those most willing to bear them, they help households and businesses insure against the unexpected. But if left unattended, markets can be prone to excess and abuse. That is particularly so in financial markets, where means and ends too easily become conflated. Value becomes abstract and relative. And the pull of the crowd can overwhelm the integrity of the individual. Lie three is that “markets are moral” – that financial capital can take for granted the social capital necessary for markets to fulfil their promise. Consider the example of fixed income, currencies and commodities markets, which historically have relied heavily on informal codes and understandings. That informality was well suited to an earlier age. But as markets innovated and grew, it proved wanting. Markets need to retain the consent of society – a social licence – to be allowed to operate, innovate and grow. Repeated episodes of misconduct (such as the Libor and FX scandals) have called that social licence into question. To restore it, we need to rebuild fair and effective markets. 9  Knight, F (1921), Risk, uncertainty and profit, Signalman Publishing. 10  In Keynes (1936), Chapter 12, he wrote: “Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on a mathematical expectation, whether moral or hedonistic or economic.

Recently, research informed the recommendations of the Warsh Review into what we could do to enhance monetary policy transparency here at the Bank of England. This research theme continues in that vein by asking what more might be done to enhance effective transparency in all areas of policy. The fourth research theme covers “New data, methodologies and approaches” Increasing amounts of data – structured and unstructured, current and historical – are available on almost every aspect of the economy and the financial system. That holds great promise. Computing power has transformed our economies; it needs now to be harnessed to transform our understanding of them. Theoretical and methodological techniques continue to advance. In some cases that will mean measurement ahead of theory. That is one way to advance. In the short term, a black box could be better than none, and with time the patterns it reveals could prompt a greater understanding of the underlying forces. Recall that Kepler needed to uncover the empirics of planetary motion before Newton could conjure the theory of celestial mechanics. It is important to exploit developments in advanced analytics of large data sets to formulate better policy. They’ll improve our understanding of household and corporate behaviour, the macroeconomy and risks to the financial system. They need to be harnessed to enhance our forecasting and stress testing capabilities.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Figure 1 World growth (*) (anual change, percent) 15 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15  80  84  88  92  96  00  04  15 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15  08  World at market exchange rate  Chile  (*) Gray area denotes forecast published in the December's Monetary Policy Report. For Chile, considers the midpoint of the projected growth range in 2011. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and IMF. Figure 2 Inflation indicators (annual change, percent) 12  12  9  9  6  6  3  3  0  0  -3  -3  06 CPI  07  08  CPIX  CPIX1  09  10  CPI excluding foodstuffs and energy  Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Bureau. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 3 Inflation by components (annual change, percent) 60  60  50  50  40  40  30  30  20  20  10  10  0  0  -10  -10  -20  -20  -30  -30  -40  -40 05  06  Electricity  07 Fuels  08  09  Foodstuffs  10 CPI  CPIX1  Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Bureau.

The growth of this sector is expected to be further bolstered by the establishment of the Multi-Facility Economic Zones in Lusaka and Chambishi to further diversify the economy and promote trade, stimulate export activities, technology, skills transfer and job creation. In pursuing an export-led growth strategy, the economic zones would actively promote value addition in identified specific products, such as, copper, vegetables, tobacco, gemstones, cotton yarn, leather products, sugar and oil cakes, of which the country has a competitive advantage. For instance, there has been a large increase in tobacco production, which has led to increased export earnings. Unfortunately, much of the tobacco is exported in a raw form with very little treatment or processing in the country. Significant investments in plant and machinery for value-addition will therefore be needed to offset this scenario. Thus, with expected large investments in Economic Zones and Export Fund facilities like the one we are witnessing today, Zambia’s competitiveness through value addition is expected to improve. Mr President let me also commend all the institutions involved in the two syndicated loans. It is gratifying to note that these facilities have been made possible due to the partnerships between the local financial institutions and international ones. I commend such partnerships and challenge other local institutions to enter into similar arrangements to reduce the cost of borrowing and promote growth in Zambia. Congratulations should be extended to the Zambia National Commercial Bank, ALS Capital and Calag Capital, AFREXIM, PTA Bank and Loita Capital to name but a few for the initiative.
The price of fresh salmon remains at the same level as in the last half of the 1990s. Exports of fish and fish products increased by 3.9 per cent from the second quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2001. Due to international developments, the uncertainties and the downside risks are now greater for many export industries. The krone has appreciated recently measured against our trading partners (trade-weighted exchange rate index). This partly reflects more than 20 per cent appreciation against the Swedish krone since spring 2000. Measured by the trade-weighted exchange rate index, the krone is now about 2 per cent weaker than in 1990 and on a par with the level in 1994-95. So far this year, the volume of traditional merchandise exports have increased more than in the same period last year, but growth is levelling off. The exposure of Norwegian exports in the ICT sector, where the international downturn has been most severe, is limited. Norway’s manufacturing output has declined somewhat this year, but less than in other countries. On the other hand, Norwegian manufacturing industry did not experience the upswing in 1999 and 2000. The business sentiment indicator does not suggest a severe decline. The order situation is still satisfactory in many industries. This does not necessarily mean that the turnaround will not occur in Norway as well. A sharp fall in share prices, tighter borrowing terms and an imbalance in international credit markets may quickly affect investment, prices, profitability and expectations.

2  BIS Review 80/2001  Central banks have ensured the smooth functioning of markets by supplying liquidity to the banking system. Interest rates have been cut in the US, Canada, the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Denmark, Japan, the UK, New Zealand, Korea and Malaysia. These cuts will contribute to mitigating the negative effects on demand, output and employment. The Norwegian economy is characterised by high capacity utilisation and strong cost inflation. The mainland economy appears to be expanding approximately in line with growth in output potential. At present, we do not have sufficient evidence to assert that international developments will change this situation. The announced increase in spending of petroleum revenues may lead to a more expansionary fiscal stance than in recent years. According to Norges Bank’s assessment, with an unchanged interest rate ahead, the probability that inflation two years ahead will be higher than 2½ per cent is the same as the probability that it will be lower. BIS Review 80/2001  3
It is only with the combined efforts and perseverance of all the stakeholders that the vision that is being envisaged for the future development of Islamic finance can yield the desired results. InsyaAllah'. Thank you. BIS Review 49/2005  7

Given the likely circumstances in which it would be occurring the tearing up of derivative contracts and winding down of a major clearing service could be a significant shock to the system. In those circumstances, I see a number of reasons why a resolution regime is necessary to provide public sector authorities with the option to step in – if necessary before the CCP has come to the end of its preagreed recovery and wind down actions. In such circumstances, where the actions or inaction by the CCP run the risk of amplifying a systemic problem, it is appropriate that a public authority be capable of intervening to manage that systemic risk and to thereby protect public funds from needing to be used. In contrast to CCP management who will owe fiduciary duties first and foremost to their shareholders, a resolution authority will have powers and duties that require and enable it to act in the interests of financial stability. The benefits of stepping in to stabilise the situation could take a number of forms. 8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  8  For example, if ‘voluntary’ measures such as auctions were failing and there was a serious risk of financial contagion from margin gains haircutting, the resolution authority could decide it was better to intervene quickly to tear-up a subset of contracts earlier than would otherwise be permitted under the rulebook. Doing so would return the CCP to a matched book before losses escalated further and before the damage became irreparable.
The digital currency for a changing world Let me now turn to my second topic: the technological evolutions underway in the fields of finance and payments, which has led us, the Eurosystem, to have launched an investigation phase on a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) under the sponsorship of President Christine Lagarde and my friend and colleague Fabio Panetta. Pending an approval by the Governing Council, a preparation phase will then start at the end of this year, before a potential and gradual launch from 2027 or 2028 onwards. I am aware I am entering here a less consensual ground, listening to banks’ doubts along two arguments (i) the CBDC would be a ‘solution in search of a problem’, the ‘why?’ question (ii) and the CBDC would be a competitor to commercial bank money. The purpose: a digital banknote About the ‘why?’, I can imagine that two centuries ago, there were many voices questioning the need for a paper banknote – at that time a huge technical innovation – to be issued along the good old gold and silver coins. Today, it all  Page 4 of 6 boils down to one simple question: as everything is becoming digital, why should central bank money be the only thing to remain in paper? As many of you know, central banks have also – and fortunately so – innovation in their DNA i, keeping pace with technological disruptions.

And, in my view, there are certain features of U.S. law that might give rise to conflict between organizational values and FCPA compliance. The Foreign Corrupt Practices Act was enacted in 1977, and it represents a Congressional response to revelations of widespread bribery of foreign officials by U.S. companies. One purpose of this legislation is stopping official corruption. Then, and continuing to the present time, the United States led the world in enacting laws designed to stop official corruption, and perhaps more importantly, in enforcing these laws. Let me say that, as an American lawyer who spends significant time outside the United States, this is a part of our legal infrastructure that I take pride in. With all of that said, there is one part of the FCPA that makes me uncomfortable. The FCPA’s bribery prohibition, and the compliance officers in the audience will know this well, contains a narrow exception for “facilitating or expediting payments” made in furtherance of 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  routine governmental action. Some of the cynical among you might know this provision as permitting so-called “grease” payments for non-discretionary acts, like processing visas or providing phone service. But, let us face it, this statutory exception permits a certain limited form of governmental corruption. While I understand that the exception is grounded in a practical reality, I feel that zero tolerance for official corruption would have been a better choice.