samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It is therefore necessary to supplement the analysis by using different measures of underlying inflation. Most central banks do this, including the Riksbank. The arguments in favour of using various alternative measures of inflation mainly concern understanding and illustrating which components have a lasting effect on prices. Inflation is often affected by temporary shocks which we do not try to counteract with monetary policy. In such a situation it is appropriate to highlight different measures of inflation to analyse and illustrate both what has already happened and what is expected to happen in the future. To describe price trends and justify monetary policy decisions we therefore make use of various measures of underlying inflation when necessary. Different measures are more suitable than others on different occasions. For example, it has recently been important to demonstrate how important energy and food prices have been for developments in the CPI. We also wish  BIS Review 73/2008  1  to be able to analyse and describe inflation adjusted for the direct effects of our own policy. Our most important tool for doing this has so far been the measure known as the CPIX. Thus, it is often valuable to use different measures of underlying inflation, not least because it makes it easier to see what factors are driving the CPI. It is quite natural for us to work in this way internally in our analyses. But it can create some problems in our external communication, particularly if a certain measure is given a long-term prominent role.

Normalisation of the Swiss franc money market The effect of the monetary policy crisis measures introduced in recent years was also felt in the area of monetary policy implementation. By buying foreign currency against Swiss francs, we created a structural liquidity surplus on the Swiss franc market. We have since largely reabsorbed this excess liquidity via a set of instruments that are already well established. Liquidity is absorbed, on the one hand, through weekly issuance of the SNB’s own money market bills (SNB Bills) with terms of 4, 12, 24 or 48 weeks, and on the other through daily one-week repo transactions (cf. chart 4). We are currently using both instruments to absorb around CHF 140 billion of liquidity, of which some CHF 110 billion is accounted for by SNB Bills. This brings banks’ sight deposits, which ultimately determine the level of interest rates on the money market, to around CHF 20 billion. Compared to the period prior to the financial crisis, this level of liquidity is still high. However, our experience with liquidity-absorbing operations shows us that we can reabsorb the excess liquidity at any time. This allows us to manage the three-month Libor. There is a liquidity overhang in the banking system as a result of the interventions. This does not pose a problem for monetary policy, as we reduce the monetary base directly through the liquidity-absorbing operations.
However, in recognition of the effective lower bound on interest rates, the ECB has stated that it will also employ forward guidance, asset purchases and longer-term refinancing operations, or any other instrument, as appropriate. In this respect, let me very briefly mention some relevant elements in relation to these nonconventional monetary policy instruments. 6  Regarding forward guidance on interest rates, at end-July 2021, the ECB revised this monetary policy tool to bring it into line with the new strategy. In particular, the revised forward guidance incorporates the 2% symmetric inflation target and establishes three conditions that need to be fulfilled before the ECB Governing Council raises its interest rates. First, we have to observe “that inflation reaches 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon”. As ECB President Christine Lagarde explained following the announcement of the new forward guidance, “well ahead” basically refers to the mid-point of our projection horizon, which covers two to three years. 5 Second, inflation must be at 2% “[…] durably for the rest of the projection horizon”. And third, the Governing Council must consider "that the progress realised in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term".

For this very reason, the award ceremony for the best diploma thesis has become a consolidated activity of the Bank of Albania geared toward supporting promising students in the field of scientific research within the scope of central banking. This year, students also showed a high interest in presenting their diploma theses. We received 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  27 studies on a wide range of economic, financial, and legal topics focused mostly on the Albanian economy. It is a delight to see how these studies use contemporary research methodologies and valuable information intelligently to analyse economic phenomena, employing theoretical and empirical arguments. In spite of the challenge of choosing the most interesting studies, we now have our verdict on the “Governor’s Award for the Best Diploma Thesis 2018”. The selection has not been easy. Each year, we receive increasingly more qualitative studies in terms of research methodology, topic originality and methods applied in research. I take this opportunity to congratulate all the contestants for the high quality of the presented studies. I hope and encourage you to further enrich your theoretical and empirical capacities as you advance in your careers, wherever that may lead, in academia or as experts in specific fields. I hope you will be unremittingly engaged in scientific research, in a relationship of which only the starting date is known. Thank you and happy holidays! 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Øystein Olsen: A decade of forward guidance in Norway Speech by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of the Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at a seminar, held at Columbia University, New York City, 8 April 2014. *  *  *  Accompanying charts can be found at the end of the speech or on the Norges Bank’s website. Please note that the text below may differ from the actual presentation. Thank you for inviting me to Columbia University. Economists in Norges Bank have been greatly inspired by researchers from this institution, and we have had the pleasure of hosting scholars from Columbia at a number of conferences in Norges Bank. Some of our economists have also been here as visiting scholars. It is therefore a particular pleasure for me to be here today. “Forward guidance” as an element of monetary policy has attracted attention in the aftermath of the international financial crisis. With key policy rates in some countries constrained at a lower bound, statements about central banks’ future actions have been used to affect interest rate expectations. Norges Bank has published explicit numerical interest rate forecasts as a regular part of our monetary policy communication for ten years. The interest rate forecast is our preferred way of guiding economic agents’ interest rate expectations. As such, our version of forward guidance has been reasonably successful. The topic of my talk is our framework for forward guidance and the experience gained over a decade of practising our approach.

The external scenario, beyond recent volatilities, continues to signal higher growth in the developed world, with favorable financial conditions for emerging markets and commodity prices without major changes, after having begun a recovering in late 2016. Thus, although important external and domestic sources of uncertainty remain, prospects for this year and next are in line with forecasts. Accordingly, the projections in the baseline scenario that I will be sharing with you in a moment, assume that monetary policy will remain expansionary throughout the projection horizon, so that inflation will fluctuate around 3% during much of the period, and activity will recover higher rates of expansion, especially towards the second half of 2017 and into 2018. Let me now present the details of our vision about the macroeconomic scenario and estimates contained in our Monetary Policy Report. The Monetary Policy Report Recent evolution of the economy and our projections The inflation outlook shows no substantive changes. Annual CPI variation has been at 2.7% since February, while core inflation—the CPIEFE—has decreased slightly (figure 1). The baseline scenario estimates that the real exchange rate will not change much and that capacity gaps will begin to close some time next year. In this context, core inflation will continue to decline for some months, to around 2%, to then approach values of the order of 3% towards the end of the projection horizon.
The conditions for dealing with the next economic downturn The picture painted by Swedish analysts at present is that a regular economic downturn is not imminent (see Figure 2). But there is nevertheless much that suggest that it is wise to prepare for less favourable times arriving sooner than we expect; the recent somewhat shaky signals regarding economic activity in Europe, the uncertainty regarding the effects of trade conflicts and Brexit, tension in the euro area and the large indebtedness and other imbalances in emerging market economies. But despite these words of warning, the most reasonable starting point is of course that developments in the coming years will be largely as the leading forecasters believe. 2 See, for instance, Rachel and Smith (2017). 3 One example from the central bank world is that Wilkins (2018) indicates that this will be an issue the next time the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy framework is evaluated, in 2021. 2 [24]  The repo rate will be somewhat higher Given this, we can expect the repo rate to have been raised at least somewhat before the less favourable times arrive. Most Swedish forecasters, including the Riksbank, are expecting the repo rate to be 0.5–0.75 per cent at the end of 2020. Until then, almost all analysts believe that growth will slow down, but not to the extent that the Swedish economy will enter a regular economic downturn before 2021. There are of course no guarantees, but this is how things look at the moment.

However, beyond any quantitative arguments, small- and mediumsized enterprises are an engine of economic growth, especially due to the fact that they are characterised by dynamism, flexibility and innovative power, which makes them able not only to adjust to the changes in the economy and quickly grasp market trends, but also to open up new avenues to economic and technological progress, as they are seen as tireless promoters of change. This is, in fact, the very essence of entrepreneurship. Last but not least, we should all be aware that some of the best-performing small- and medium-sized enterprises today will turn into the large companies of the future (as was the case of Mobexpert and Dedeman, two successful Romanian companies that currently provide thousands of jobs after starting in the early 1990s as small- and medium-sized enterprises, with only a handful of employees). Romania and Europe need small- and medium-sized enterprises not as survivors of the crisis, but as drivers of innovation, the catalyst for economic growth. Let me conclude by emphasising that good economic governance – based on four essential pillars: transparency, accountability, predictability and participation – is an important ingredient of economic growth. In-depth reform of economic governance at EU level and at global level is the way to go if we truly wish to achieve sustainable economic growth and job creation. Ladies and gentlemen, Now let me call on Mr. Vincent Cable to share with you his opinions on growth recovery across the European Union and the reforms for the future of Europe.
SPEECH DATE:  5 March 2018  SPEAKER:  Governor of the Riksbank Stefan Ingves  VENUE:  Expert Group on Public Economics, Stockholm  SVERIGES RIKSBANK SE-103 37 Stockholm (Brunkebergstorg 11) Tel +46 8 787 00 00 Fax +46 8 21 05 31 registratorn@riksbank.se www.riksbank.se  Monetary policy in a new environment∗ This is a year of celebration for the Riksbank. The major event is our 350th anniversary as Sweden’s central bank, which will be celebrated in different ways during the year. Furthermore, it is 25 years since the Riksbank announced its inflation target, which was a milestone in Swedish monetary policy. It also happens to be 20 years almost to the day since the Swedish Riksdag took the decision to strengthen the Riksbank’s position and, as part of this work, to create a Riksbank Executive Board with the responsibility for conducting monetary policy independently. 1 As well as being a reason to celebrate, anniversaries can also give us cause to pause and reflect on what has been, where we are and where we are heading. My intention here today is to perform just such a positioning exercise. A general reflection is that monetary policy internationally and in Sweden finds itself in an environment that in many ways differs from the one we have been experiencing for a long time. It is not merely a question of changes in economic activity.

Ravi Menon: Down but not out: resilience in a post-COVID world Keynote speech by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Singapore Maritime Lecture, Singapore, 2 September 2020. * * * Good afternoon to everyone tuning in from Asia, and good morning to the rest watching from across the globe. Let me thank the Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) for the opportunity to deliver this Singapore Maritime Lecture virtually. The global economy is facing its worst crisis since the Second World War. The IMF has forecast that the global economy will shrink by 4.9% this year. According to the W TO, global merchandise trade volumes contracted by an estimated 14% in the first half of 2020. And the recovery will not be spectacular – even in its more optimistic scenario, the W TO forecasts merchandise trade this year to be 13% below 2019 levels. With over 80% of international merchandise trade seaborne, the maritime industry has not been spared. Down But Not Out One of the great lessons of the COVID-19 crisis is the importance of resilience. In one of the most popular movie quotes of all time, the boxer Rocky Balboa says “It ain’t about how hard you hit, it is about how hard you can get hit, and keep moving forward.” Resilience is not just about being strong, it is not even about staying on your feet all the time.
Caleb M Fundanga: Small-scale cross-border trade and payment services in southern Africa Official opening remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at a roundtable symposium on small-scale cross-border trade and payment services in southern Africa, Lusaka, 21 March 2011. *  *  *  Distinguished Invited Guests Let me begin by welcoming you to this Roundtable Symposium on Small-Scale CrossBorder Trade and Payment Services in Southern Africa. May I also warmly welcome our colleagues from neighbouring countries who have come to join us in this important event. It is my sincere hope that you shall enjoy your stay in Zambia and that you shall find this roundtable symposium fruitful. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, cross-border trade plays an important role in supporting livelihoods, especially those of border communities, thereby buttressing prosperity in the region. Furthermore, by strengthening commercial ties, promoting cultural understanding, and deepening community relationships, cross-border trade helps to nurture harmonious relations amongst countries in the region. The unique feature of small-scale cross-border trade lies in geographical proximity which minimises transportation costs, thereby allowing traders to take advantage of differences in the supply, demand, and prices of various goods and services available on either side of the border. It is worth noting that most cross-border trade activities are not reported in foreign trade statistics. However, surveys conducted on the subject show that cross-border trade is carried out by individuals or small traders and their families.

It is also expected that the forum will result in attaining better alignment of project scope with stakeholder needs, and in particular buy-in from both private and public sector stakeholders in each country covered. Ladies and Gentlemen, this roundtable forum brings together some decision and policy makers, from both the private and public sectors of the countries covered by the project, to a single regional event representing government and central bank officials, trade and payment system experts, international development community, mobile network operators, international money operators, payment service providers, academics and researchers involved in the topics of small-scale cross-border trade and payment services. I am very positive that the symposium shall achieve the stated objectives and wish to encourage you to actively and freely participate in the deliberations. With these few words, Ladies and Gentlemen, I declare this roundtable symposium open. Thank you! 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
These reforms, it is said, may work very well, but they should be postponed until later because they are not useful for exiting the current crisis. Firstly, some of these reforms, such as those conducive to hiring, would clearly have immediate effects in resolving the main problem of the current crisis, namely unemployment. Yet while it is true that other structural reforms would not have immediate direct effects but would yield future results, the decisions economic agents take today depend greatly on how they see the future. What has brought decisions to consume and invest today to a grinding halt is mistrust of the future; accordingly, if confidence about the future is restored, that would have highly beneficial effects not only in the medium run but now, in the present. In sum, tomorrow we'll broach again the financial and real-sector crisis facing us. And how to exit it. We’ll be reflecting on how to break the vicious circles of the lack of confidence. We'll discuss how it is naive to believe these vicious circles can be broken only in one place, concluding that what we need is a recovery in the confidence of all economic agents. These measures cannot be taken only at the national level; the crisis is a global one and attempts should be made to coordinate action to the full worldwide. That makes very strong demands on all multilateral fora and institutions, governments, politicians, central bankers, supervisors and all those with responsibilities in the matter.

In a country with a limited number of banks it is less clear that a separate supervisor is needed and the central bank may well be able to take this responsibility on without risk to its reputation or of other contagion to its primary monetary policy responsibilities. In contrast to monetary policy, where the appropriate institutional framework is common to all countries, there is unlikely to be uniformity in the roles played by central banks in the supervision of the financial system. Regardless of where responsibility for regulation lies, it is hard to imagine taking steps either to prevent, or to deal with, the consequences of a financial crisis without the active involvement of the central bank. Central banks are currently at the heart of efforts to restore confidence in the banking system by the provision of liquidity against assets which have proved to be highly illiquid. But the recent challenges presented by the latest episode of financial turmoil suggest that much hard thought will need to be given to the structure and nature of banking regulation in the future. In the longer-term, it seems extremely likely that banks and other “near” banks, especially those that have been regarded as similar to banks  2  BIS Review 36/2008  in terms of their eligibility for financial assistance, will be called upon to hold more capital and a greater quantity of liquid assets than hitherto. It is too early to foresee clearly where the long-term direction will go.
Investments into global sustainable finance stand at around USD30 trillion to date. Closer to home, the financial sector has been supporting the transition agenda through product offerings and solutions. Several banks are offering financing with preferential rates for green projects e.g., green manufacturing, clean and renewable energy, hybrid vehicles and green-certified properties. The Bank also recently introduced the Low Carbon Transition Facility (LCTF), with RM2 billion in funds to support SMEs in adopting sustainable and low carbon practices. One other aspect that we shouldn’t overlook is the emerging technological innovation that support businesses’ transition efforts. An example is the use of fintech to make transparent businesses’ supply chains, a critical element in informing investors and customers of the sustainability impact of a business. New technologies are also required to assist in the measurement of businesses’ transition journeys, given the relevance of novel forms of climate-related data, which require new methodologies to be translated into financially relevant information. Nevertheless, all these remain at a fraction of the commitment and capital needed to meet our national climate and environmental aspirations. This leaves a clear role – and abundant opportunities – for the private sector to step in and step up, reaping the benefits of supporting sustainability for themselves, their customers and communities. Second, capital is critical in building the next generation of digital infrastructure and business models. Over the past decades, investments and dedicated research have driven the rise of many innovations.

From a central banker’s standpoint, the role of asset prices in general and of inflation-indexed bonds in particular in the process of setting monetary policy is mainly related to their information content on future economic activity and inflation. As you have already probably noticed, the Governing Council of the ECB sometimes refers to the information delivered by the changes in the inflation-indexed bond yields both in its introductory statement and in its comprehensive assessment of recent economic and financial developments, as presented, for instance, in the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin. To elaborate further on this, I will develop three points. First, I will describe the information content of inflation-indexed bonds and explain why this information is relevant for central banks. Second, I will highlight some of the main drawbacks and potential biases that may alter this information content. Third, I will briefly review the other indicator variables that we also use in our cross-checking exercise at the euro area level. Finally, I will conclude my presentation by raising the issue of what I call the  1  Robert Shiller: “The Invention of Inflation - Indexed Bonds in Early America”, NBER Working Paper N°10183, December 2003. 2  In the year prior to the introduction of the indexed bond, the inflation rate was at 69.2% in Brazil, 22.2% in Chile, 19.7% in Colombia, 34.8% in Argentina, 16,1% in the UK in 1974 and still at 14% in 1980.