samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
On an average day, over $ billion in Treasury securities changes hands, about seven times the value of stocks traded daily on the New York Stock Exchange. All of this trading activity serves the very important function of price discovery. More than any other securities market in the United States, the Treasury market responds forcefully to new information about macroeconomic fundamentals. The days when the most intense trading activity takes place are also the days when major reports are released on such indicators of U.S. economic performance as the employment report, the consumer price index or the producer price index. These releases allow market participants to digest important new information and to review their expectations about where the economy is going. The interest rates on Treasury securities of varying maturities are the market’s most important signals about the U.S. economy’s prospects for growth and risks of inflation. In the rest of the fixed-income market, trading in corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities and sovereign debt also serves the price discovery process. This trading activity acts to differentiate, for example, a triple-A risk against a triple-B risk, the prepayment risk of mortgages against the prepayment risk of credit card receivables, and OECD country risk against emerging market risk.

In addition, when SOMA holdings of a specific issue exceed 30 percent of outstanding securities, the Desk limits the rate at which it acquires new holdings of that issue based on a predetermined, graduated schedule. The Desk also refrains from purchasing certain Treasury securities in its operations if investors’ demand for those specific securities as collateral in the repurchase market or as deliverables into Treasury futures contracts is relatively high. In the event of significant market demand for specific Treasury collateral held by the SOMA, investors can borrow these holdings through competitive securities lending operations. In the MBS market, the Desk is supportive of market functioning in two main ways. First, as I mentioned earlier, we adjust our purchase allocation as necessary to respond to concerns about relative scarcity in particular contracts. Second, we use dollar roll transactions to facilitate the orderly settlement of our unsettled purchases. Selling dollar roll contracts essentially postpones the settlement of an outstanding purchase, while buying dollar roll contracts brings it forward. The Desk actively monitors implied financing rates on dollar roll  10  Since TBA transactions settle on a forward basis, the Desk is exposed to the risk that a primary dealer is unable or unwilling to meet its contractual obligations. If a counterparty does not deliver on its obligation, the Desk could be forced to replace the transaction at a higher prices.
4  BIS Review 31/2007  Extending the New Silk Road to the world Ladies and Gentlemen, While the New Silk Road is enhancing linkages between Asia and the Middle East, both regions have always extended the Silk Road to the rest of the world to participate in the these exciting developments on this route. Indeed, global investors and the international financial community are already drawing the benefits from the increased diversification of asset classes while riding on the dynamism of the two regions. As Islamic finance expands further, reinforced by the activities on the New Silk Road, there will be greater convergence towards ethical or socially responsible-type of investments (SRI) in the global financial community. Islamic investment guidelines share significant similarities with the SRI principles. The focus of Islamic investment not only involves the avoidance of riba-free activities but also extends to include issues related to ethical values, such as fair trade and environmental protection. Furthermore, the prospects of increased stability for financing flows and the focus on the role of real sector economic activities have ignited interest in utilising Islamic finance for sustainable development. This overwhelming gathering of so many issuers and investors here today provides some indication of the growing interest in Islamic finance, reinforcing the potential increased activity on the New Silk Road. We all have a part in the making of the New Silk Road into a vibrant source of wealth and prosperity in the global economy.

In the first presentation, Gauti Eggertsson will analyze how the fiscal multiplier is affected by the degree of coordination between the fiscal and monetary authorities. Then, Giancarlo Corsetti will question the conventional wisdom that fiscal policy is more expansionary under a fixed exchange rate than under a floating regime. Finally, Luis Felipe Céspedes, Jorge Fornero, and Jordi Galí will present a paper that estimates the effects of Chilean fiscal policy on consumption and income using a framework that relaxes the assumption of Ricardian equivalence. The final section will focus on fiscal policy in emerging market economies. Jeffrey Frankel will discuss the structural fiscal spending rule implemented in Chile in 2001. Eduardo Engel, Christopher Neilson, and Rodrigo Valdés will conduct a welfare analysis of the effects of Chile’s fiscal rule. Michel Strawczynski and Joseph Zeira will examine the cyclicality of fiscal policy in a broad set of emerging market economies, and will analyze whether the dynamics they observe can be characterized using Aguiar and Gopinath’s distinction of permanent and temporary shocks. I would like to thank the organizers, Jordi Galí and Luis Felipe Céspedes, for putting together this first-rate programme, and Yan Carrière-Swallow and the Department of Institutional Affairs for coordinating the logistics that have made this event possible. I look forward to two days of engaging presentations and fruitful discussions. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 143/2010
William C Dudley: The evolving structure of the US treasury market Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at The Evolving Structure of the U.S. Treasury Market: Third Annual Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 28 November 2017. * * * Vic Chakrian, Ellen Correia Golay, Frank Keane, Matthew Milroy, Marcus Petersen, Liza Reiderman, William Riordan, and Nathaniel Wuerffel assisted in the preparation of these remarks. On behalf of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and our co-sponsors—the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission—I would like to welcome you to this year’s conference on the structure of the U.S. Treasury market. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System. This is the third year the New York Fed has co-hosted the Treasury market structure conference, which provides an opportunity to deepen our understanding of the changing landscape of the Treasury market. Many of you remember the market volatility of October 15, 2014, that precipitated the need for additional engagement between the private and public sectors about Treasury market structure.

Trade balance and the REER  90  Index  Billion euro  120  80  100  70 60  80  50  60  40 30  40  20  20  10 0  0 2008  2009  2010  2011  Exports of goods and services Source: BIS, NIS Note: REER – 61 economies  2012  2013  2014  Imports of goods and services  2015  2016  2017  REER CPI_based (rhs)  Figure 3. Unit labor cost relative to EU 100  percent  90 80 70 60 50 40 2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  Compensation per employee (% EU, PPS) ULC RO (% EU, PPS) (3=1/2) Source: Eurostat, NBR calculations  2014  2015  Labour productivity  2016  2017  (% EU, PPS)  0.0 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18  Figure 4. International reserves  50.0  EUR bn.
And it goes without saying that the ECB will not be acting in a legal vacuum – in considering the proportionality of its actions, it will have to take into account existing secondary law and justify any measures it takes. And the Court of Justice would be the ultimate arbiter to determine whether the ECB is respecting the principle of proportionality. Conclusion Let me conclude. It has become evident that disturbances affecting CCPs can have an impact on monetary policy, on payment systems and, ultimately, on price stability. The Commission’s proposal to amend the EMIR framework is a step in the right direction as it reflects the responsibilities of the ECB – as a central bank of issue – in the supervisory framework. However, we also need to adjust the ECB’s monetary policy toolkit to ensure it can fulfil its role. This requires amending Article 22 of the Statute in a manner that respects the principle of central bank independence and the ECB’s exclusive competence for monetary policy. Moreover, any change to Article 22 must preserve the ECB’s flexibility and autonomy to react to unforeseen circumstances and effectively address risks to its mandate. Ultimately, amending both EMIR and Article 22 will establish a comprehensive legal framework to address the risks CCPs pose to the Union – both its financial markets and its currency. It will ensure that the EU’s legislators, supervisors and central bank – acting in their respective roles – can adopt the wide range of measures needed to safeguard stability.

I welcome the proposal to strengthen the role of CBIs. It would reinforce coordinated supervision, while reflecting the responsibilities of the ECB – as a CBI – within the supervisory framework. The role of the central bank of issue Background and rationale for the ECB recommendation However, although EU legislators can incorporate a role for CBIs into the processes for supervising CCPs, the regulation cannot go so far as to confer on the ECB the sort of binding instruments this enhanced role requires, which the ECB thought it had until challenged in court by the United Kingdom. In 2015, the General Court held that the ECB does not have the competence to regulate the activity of securities clearing systems, including CCPs. Moreover, the Court stated that the ECB would need to request an amendment to Article 22 of the Statute of the ESCB and of the ECB, which already enables the ECB to make regulations for clearing and payment systems, if it considers this necessary for the proper performance of its tasks under the Treaties2. 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  The ECB’s Governing Council therefore unanimously adopted a recommendation to amend Article 223 to extend it to cover derivatives, give legal effect to the ECB’s role under EMIR, and give the ECB the flexibility and autonomy to act outside EMIR where clearing would pose a severe threat to the stability of the euro. Amending Article 22 of the Statute – procedure Let me briefly explain the procedure for amending the Statute.
However, attention should still be paid to the downward pressure on prices stemming from weak demand, although the pressure has weakened given some recovery in private demand. In the financial market, the overnight call rate has generally stayed near zero, and financial institutions have been confident about the availability of overnight funds. The amount outstanding of funds in the call money market increased slightly in late March, and decreased thereafter. Interest rates on term instruments rose slightly toward end-March, the end of the fiscal year, but have weakened somewhat since the beginning of April. The Japan premium remains negligible. Yields on long-term government bonds rose marginally in mid-March and stayed above 1.8%, but declined somewhat from late March and are recently back in the range of 1.7-1.8%. The yield spread between private bonds (bank debentures and corporate bonds) and government bonds continues narrowing, primarily that between private bonds with relatively low credit ratings and government bonds. Stock prices weakened almost to 19,000 yen in mid-March, but then rebounded and are currently moving between 20,000 and 21,000 yen. In the foreign exchange market, the yen strengthened against the US dollar toward the end of March. However, it weakened at the beginning of April and has been traded at around 105 yen since then. With regard to corporate finance, private banks have basically retained their cautious lending attitude. However, constraint that had been caused by severe fund-raising conditions and insufficient capital base has eased considerably.

The Riksbank hardly has better prerequisites than investors in the market to determine whether a so-called speculative bubble is developing. If a speculative bubble is involved, it will sooner or later burst. However, it is then the Riksbank’s duty to counteract a fall in inflation by an energetic interest rate policy at the same time as it limits the damage of the fall in demand that could ensue. BIS Review 33/20009  4  Bank of Japan’s April report of recent economic and financial developments1  Bank of Japan, Communication, 12 April 2000. *  *  *  The Bank’s view2 The improvement in Japan’s economy is becoming distinct. Recovery has started in some areas of private demand, as seen in a gradual upturn in business fixed investment. With regard to exogenous demand, net exports (real exports minus real imports) continue to follow an upward trend due to an upturn in overseas economies, and public investment has started to pick up reflecting the progress in the implementation of the supplementary budget for fiscal 1999. As regards domestic private demand, housing investment is decreasing moderately, and recovery in private consumption continues to be weak through lack of notable improvements in employment and income conditions. Meanwhile, business fixed investment is starting to pick up albeit moderately. Reflecting such developments in final demand, industrial production is increasing, and corporate profits and sentiment continue to improve.
He worked on economic reconstruction in Afghanistan, and on coordination of financial policy with the G7 countries. All in all, an impressive job. Currently, John is a member of the G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance, which aims at improving the functioning of the global financial architecture and governance. No less fascinating is John Taylor the teacher in both ‘quantitative’ and ‘qualitative’ terms. On the one hand, he has given countless speeches, hundreds of lectures, written several Page 3/4  textbooks and developed online courses. On the other hand, he is known for mixing teaching with entertainment. Indeed, John does not hesitate to use special didactic techniques to help students understand or remember material. During his classes, to cite just one example, John enters into a humorous dialogue with Adam Smith, revealing deep enthusiasm and dedication to the job. And by the way, this example is quite remarkable for someone who describes his humour “as mostly deadpan”, so that it generally takes a few lectures before his students are able to figure out when something is actually a joke. Having talked about John’s three occupations separately, I should emphasise how well they interact and stimulate one another. Research is integrated into college lectures; government work has enabled him to understand policy constraints, while this in turn has stimulated research. “Economic research,” John once wrote, “is most exciting and productive when it is policy-driven.” Karl Brunner could not have agreed more.

The outcome of these developments is that a new focus is being placed on deposit insurance in the post crisis period. Deposit insurance is now considered as an essential crisis management tool and an important instrument for orderly liquidation of an unsound financial institution. A well-designed deposit guarantee scheme largely supports financial stability and financial crisis resolution by mitigating risks of and maintaining trust in the 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  financial system. However, recalling one of the most important lessons we learned from the global financial crisis, despite the mandate given to any institution, no player can alone deal with a systemic crisis and the consequences of strong spillover effects and contagion risks. It is essential that each element of the safety net develops robust mechanisms that aim to resolve financial institutions and stabilize the financial system as smoothly as possible, minimizing the cost to the economy. Moreover, financial stability can only be preserved by a well-coordinated financial safety net, which is supported by a resilient legal framework, proper tools and instruments and careful contingency planning for each of its elements. The Bank of Albania has dedicated much of the past 10 years to integrating the lessons learned from the recent financial crises into a new regulatory framework. Our financial safety net is further aligned with international best practices, as we coordinate our roles as supervisory authority, lender of last resort and, recently, resolution authority as well.
Ivan Iskrov: Central banks and the overhaul of banking regulation Welcome address by Mr Ivan Iskrov, Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, at the international conference “Central Banks and the Overhaul of Banking Regulation”, on the occasion of the 135th Anniversary of the Bulgarian National Bank, Sofia, 6 June 2014. *  *  *  Dear guests of the conference, Ladies and gentlemen, It is my privilege and honour to open today this international conference, dedicated to the commemoration of the 135th Anniversary of the BNB. The central bank of Bulgaria is one of the oldest in the world, 13th by order of establishment. First of all, I would like to extend a very warm welcome to all of you, and especially to our international guests, some of whom visit our country for the first time. You will meet here not only experts with whom you could exchange ideas and know-how, but also friends. We are a very hospitable nation and I am sure that during your stay here you will have a valuable professional experience with plenty of knowledge-sharing, brainstorming and networking opportunities. You will also have a chance to catch a glimpse of the great history, culture, customs and natural beauty of our country. The topic of today’s conference – “Central Banks and the Overhaul of Banking Regulation” – is of significant importance to our central banking community. The recent deep reforms in banking regulation around the world have brought new responsibilities and new challenges for our institutions.

This is especially valid with respect to the area of macro-prudential tools and instruments, in view of the significant differences across countries in their initial conditions or stages of development and convergence. Starting with the obvious focus of interest for every central bank – namely monetary policy – I would like to remind you that the BNB is among the few central banks in the world with such recent know-how in two remarkably contrasting monetary policy regimes. Since the start of transition from the centrally planned economy 25 years ago and the restoration of the traditional two-tier banking system in Bulgaria, we initially practiced discretionary monetary policy, and then after our crisis, we introduced the currency board arrangements in 1997. In addition to conducting monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability, the BNB was traditionally entrusted with the regulation and supervision of the Bulgarian banking system. The banking regulations in Bulgaria and the supervisory powers of the BNB were strengthened after our crisis in the mid-1990s. The BNB has ever since persisted in implementing highly conservative supervisory standards. As a result, today the banking system of Bulgaria remains one of those in the EU where no single bank needed to be rescued or supported with taxpayers’ or central bank money. Furthermore, our banking system is already in full compliance with the new Capital Requirements Directive and the Capital Requirements Regulation.
The ESRB approach uses the concept of residual risk, which is the difference between the level of risk and the current resilience of the financial system.12 In setting up the framework, policymakers need to establish the level of residual risk that they consider acceptable. Regular macroprudential policy decisions would then follow a two-stage process. Policymakers assess the level of residual risk in the system, and if that diverges from the acceptable level, they then assess the policy tightening or loosening required to realign it. Conclusion Let me conclude. Over the past eight years, the implementation of macroprudential policy in Europe has substantially improved, and the ESRB has played a valuable role in facilitating that process. The ESRB’s success derives from its broad membership. Systemic risk takes different forms over time, so discussions incorporating a wide range of viewpoints and experience are vital if policymakers are to successfully safeguard the stability of the financial system. 1 See, for example, European Commission Staff Working Document, Coping with the international financial crisis  at the national level in a European context, p.11, which shows that even in 2015 the contribution of the state to financial sector repair represented more than 10% of total public debt in many countries. 2 ESRB (2014), ESRB Flagship report on macroprudential policy in the banking sector. 3 Kelber, A. and Monnet, É. (2014), “Macroprudential policy and quantitative instruments: a European historical  perspective, Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, April, 18: 151–160. 4 Some discussion had certainly taken place prior to the crisis.

The second area of improvement for the macroprudential framework in Europe involves keeping pace with developments in the financial system. That requires broadening the range of macroprudential instruments beyond those currently available, which focus almost exclusively on the banking sector. For the insurance sector, the contours of such instruments are taking shape. They include solvency instruments such as symmetric capital requirements for cyclical risks; liquidity instruments for insurers with a vulnerable liquidity profile; and instruments to target bank-like activities to ensure macroprudential policy is consistent across sectors.11 The third area for improvement in macroprudential policy involves establishing a clearer conceptual framework to govern policy discussions and interventions. Such a framework would facilitate communication with market participants and the general public, as well as help mitigate any risk of inaction bias. 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  For monetary policy the framework is well known and the reaction function of central banks is normally well understood by markets. By contrast, the framework that governs macroprudential policy interventions is much less developed, due in no small part to our limited experience of using these tools. The objective of financial stability is broader than the objective of price stability, so is less easily defined by a single numerical measure. Developing the policy framework is challenging and will take time.