samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Relatively high fiscal and current account deficits may weaken the foundation of the building and adjusting them in a smooth manner is a much more sensible thing to do than letting the market forces make an abrupt correction. As regards monetary policy, strict liquidity management represents a step in the right direction. But, of course, monetary policy alone is not enough. Which brings us to the second rule: there is no substitute for a predictable and coherent economic policy mix. Let me stress that it should remain so even when facing the challenges of election years (there are several election rounds in Romania in 2019 and 2020). A significant pace of economic convergence is desired, but the process should unfold sustainably to preserve macroeconomic equilibria and safeguard competitiveness. As I usually put it, to successfully adopt the euro, one should be a marathoner rather than a sprinter. Last, but not least, the third rule might be as follows: when the normalisation wave eventually hits, the magnitude of the impact will depend on how vulnerable emerging economies are to external financing. A contained current account deficit, a long average maturity on public and private foreign currency debt and a coherent mix of countercyclical macroeconomic policies and structural reforms would go a long way in limiting the risks. If proper economic policy actions are not implemented while there is a window of opportunity, the possibility of a forced resort, in a more or less distant future, to sub-optimal measures in the face of adversity cannot be ruled out.

I believe, and certainly hope that, with these latest refinements of the tax regime for CTC activities, we should be able to remove any remaining reservations that your firm may have in considering setting up CTCs in Hong Kong. 25. Coming back to my soccer analogy, setting up a CTC in Hong Kong will offer MNCs a home game advantage. For Mainland corporations, Hong Kong offers unmatched home turf advantage under the “one country, two systems” framework. They are familiar and comfortable with using Hong Kong’s financial platform to advance their global business  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  objectives. For the other global MNCs, Hong Kong is the ideal place for centralizing their treasury operations in Asia, in particular those that are tied to the rising use of the RMB. We are right at the door step of China, the perfect spot for the CTC, the mid-fielder, to support their front line teams to strike deals and score business goals with their Chinese counterparts. 26. Looking at the very comprehensive agenda today, I am sure you will have very fruitful discussion on how to ride on the different industry trends and create cutting-edge, innovative treasury solutions. May I wish this Summit a great success. 27. 4  Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches
The rate of inflation decrease will depend on further developments and changes in the economic situation. The attempt to reduce the inflation at any cost would obviously be a short-sighted strategy. When taking a decision on the key rate we always consider the balance of risks of inflation acceleration and slowdown in economic growth. This balance changed considerably at the turn of 2014–2015. For most of 2014 the balance of risks was shifted towards inflation acceleration. Economic slowdown was primarily of structural nature and did not have considerable impact on prices. Meanwhile, inflation expectations were growing. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The situation aggravated in 2014 Q4, because the fall in oil prices and the need to make large external debt payments amid almost inaccessible international capital markets led to considerable ruble depreciation. This in its turn resulted in higher inflation expectations. Demand of households and businesses for cash and non-cash foreign currency surged up. It threatened to heavily accelerate inflation and destabilise financial sector. It was important to bring these processes to a halt and we decided to raise the key rate dramatically to 17% p.a. The rise of the key rate was followed by the increase in bank deposit rates that managed to stop the outflow of funds from ruble deposits and pegged down their dollarisation. Our foreign currency REPO and lending operations also helped normalise the situation in the foreign exchange market.

At that time the Fed devoted a lot of studies on financial innovations and I remember my participation in a G X Central Bank study group chaired by Sam Y. CROSS on innovation in banking. Financial stability was already at the center of the stage. I would like to stress here how this long standing relationship and mutual trust with the Federal Reserve is of importance nowadays.   Allow me now to offer you a French and central banker point of view of the current situation. These last months brought important changes to the world economy. To name a few, growth perspectives in advanced economies have significantly worsened, markets are increasingly volatile, and confidence has shrunk. The downward revision of US growth has certainly played a role. But, most significantly, two other shocks have occurred. In the US, reaching an agreement to raise the debt ceiling has been difficult. And, in Europe, it has been recognized that Greece, a euro and OECD country, would not be able to fully honor its signature, without a voluntary private sector involvement. In the eyes of the market, this has had significant implications for other European sovereigns. A challenging question is now being asked: Over the last 50 years, financial markets have developed on the assumption that public debt was considered risk free. The certainty that debt would be paid in full strongly anchored market views. Now that this certainty is questioned, debt sustainability may rest on a more fragile and volatile basis.
Svein Gjedrem: Globalisation and monetary policy Welcome address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the Norges Bank Conference on Monetary Policy “Jarle Bergo Colloquium: Globalisation and Monetary Policy”, Oslo, 7 March 2008. *  *  *  It is a great pleasure to welcome you all to Norges Bank’s conference on monetary policy. The bi-annual conference on evaluation and assessment of monetary policy is a tradition at Norges Bank. This year the conference is being held in honour of my dear friend and colleague, Jarle Bergo, who is approaching the end of his twelve-year term as Deputy Governor of Norges Bank. He is now resigning office to take the position of Alternate Executive Director of the Nordic-Baltic Constituency at the IMF. Jarle Bergo started his career as an economist in Norges Bank in the late sixties. Over the years he has made crucial contributions both to the work of the Bank and to its organisation. I am sure that I speak for all of us who have had the pleasure of working closely with him when I say that he has also made a vital contribution to the atmosphere in the Bank through his pleasant manner and good humour. We have titled this conference “Jarle Bergo colloquium: Globalisation and Monetary Policy”. Both globalisation and monetary policy are themes wide enough to fill up numerous conferences by themselves, and only a few questions will be addressed here today.

But growth has a price. This is particularly reflected in increased emissions of greenhouse gases as a result of increased human activity. It is still uncertain how serious the impact of gas emissions will be. But once the impact comes into full evidence, it may be too late to take corrective action. There is also the risk that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reaches such a high level that it exceeds critical values that cannot be reversed. We are very pleased to have Dr John Llewellyn, Senior Economic Policy Advisor at Lehman Brothers, here today to enlighten us on how globalisation affects the environment. Changes  BIS Review 27/2008  1  in our environment affect the way we are able to interact: it is important to combine knowledge about nature with knowledge about the functioning of the economy. The last decade or so, we have witnessed increased financial integration and competition across national borders. This is a positive development. Deeper and more mature markets tend to be better equipped to deal with uncertainty and distress. But increased financial integration also raises the potential for more widespread contagion if something goes wrong, as witnessed by the current financial turmoil. Professor Philip Lane, Director of the Institute for International Integration studies at Trinity College Dublin, is one of the foremost experts on financial globalisation, and we are very much looking forward to hearing what he has to say on this subject.
The first reason is associated with cash withdrawals and cash deposits by customers and from bank transfer payments intermediated by the Eurosystem – in its function as the clearing institution of the most important interbank payments system in the euro area. The other reason is that not all banks participate in the Eurosystem liquidity-providing operations, but prefer to cover their needs for reserves primarily in the interbank market. For example, in normal times, of the 1,700 banks that were eligible for Eurosystem monetary policy operations, less than 500 used to participate in liquidity allotments. 3  In a Eurosystem environment, the short-term inter-temporal calculus finds another anchor: the need for banks to fulfil their reserve requirements over a monthly maintenance period. In normal times, this is accomplished smoothly throughout the monthly period, again via an inter-temporal substitution of liquidity balances by each individual bank. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  of the short-term rates become the driving factor in the pricing of long-dated securities, and monetary policy acquires a potent handle on the economy. In August 2007, a sudden re-pricing in the US sub-prime mortgage market changed this world. The close and predictable relationship between the expected path of policy rates and market rates broke down because the liquidity premia widened and became volatile. The elevation of market premia was especially pronounced in the spread between the three-month EURIBOR and the expected three-month path of the overnight rate (see slide 3).

the overnight interest rate (of which a euro area average, the EONIA, is computed and published every day by the ECB), is influenced by expectations of the cost of Eurosystem credit – the so-called MRO rate – at the next weekly monetary policy operation. A short-term inter-temporal arbitrage calculus anchors the overnight interest rate applied on the credit transaction between banks that need liquidity and banks that have a liquidity surplus. 3 The second dimension of the inter-temporal calculus has a longer horizon and a wider scope of application across asset classes. Banks can borrow short in the money market or from the Eurosystem and decide to engage in term lending to other banks or to their customers. Bank customers, in turn, can use bank liquidity to finance consumption or the acquisition of capital. It is important to note that all of these money transactions in the broader economy involve traders weighing the costs of their borrowing against the return opportunities on their asset acquisition at different points in time, where the horizon is typically longer than a week. But, again, as banks borrowing from the Eurosystem are the source of this liquidity propagation pattern, and banks’ financial calculus is based on their anticipations of the interest rate settings by the Eurosystem in the future, such anticipations anchor the pricing of credit in the broader economy. We call this “the interest rate channel” of monetary policy decisions.
At this juncture, the transparency of the process is fundamental through the detailed explanations of the actions and of the context in which the decisions were taken. Following the purposes of the inflation-targeting regime, the timely release of the Monetary Policy Committee minutes provides the public with the Committee’s view on the economy and its prospects, providing the rationale for the policy adopted by the Copom. (At the same time, contact with analysts from several segments of the public was enhanced by the creation, especially for this purpose, of an Institutional Communications Group, which allows a more efficient two-way communication through the use of surveys of expectations and other specific research.) The production of reports and the release of studies and research is also fundamental aiming at increasing the transparency of the Bank's activities to the public. In addition to the monthly bulletins and annual reports, other key reports are the Inflation Report, which deals with the inflation-targeting framework, the Financial Stability Report, which deals with the stability of the Brazilian Financial System, the Banking Economics and Credit Report, development of the Interest Rates and Banking Spread Project, the Working Papers Series and the Technical Notes Series of the Central Bank. Thus, the Central Bank will emphasize not only the improvement of statistics and models, but also its transparency and communication. For instance, the increase of information and data available to the public on the Central Bank website has been outstanding. More than eight thousand statistical series are already available, with increasingly easy access.

Until last August, the MPC had shied away from providing such explicit guidance, lest it be misinterpreted as a promise independent of the state of the economy. Instead we preferred to provide an implicit steer through the medium of the projections contained in our quarterly Inflation Report. Last August, however, the MPC decided that more explicit guidance about our reaction function could be helpful. Rather than aiming to provide more stimulus as in the academic literature, we were merely seeking to ensure that the recovery was not nipped in the bud by a premature rise in market interest rates, despite there still being a significant margin of economic slack. We said then that we would not even countenance a rise in Bank Rate until unemployment had fallen to 7%, subject to overrides relating to excessive upward movements in inflation expectations and to the risks to financial stability, the latter being policed by the Financial Policy Committee. We chose unemployment in part because its behaviour is directly linked to one of the key uncertainties at the current juncture, namely the scope for a recovery in productivity. This has been unusually weak since the onset of the crisis for reasons we do not yet fully understand (Chart 2). If productivity rebounded, then unemployment would fall slowly. But in that case, there would also be more scope to maintain an expansionary policy before inflationary pressures began to rise.
Here again, estimates vary from one study to the other, and all agree on the same finding: a huge potential is still there to exploit. This being said, risks in the financial sector are the most varied and most important, especially in terms of money laundering, financing terrorism, cyber security, as well as protecting customers and personal data. Such risks have become major concerns both at the national and international level. For us, central banks in particular, the changes brought by the Fintech challenge us in several aspects, namely in our core functions. Now, even the monopoly of issuing currency is exposed, leading some central banks to consider the option of issuing a digital currency, and therefore reduce the costs related to conventional banknotes’ production and use, and minimize the insecurity risks involved. 6  Among the other fields concerned is financial supervision. This area is now gradually expanding as new actors and financial products have emerged, which can certainly affect monetary policy transmission. Ladies and gentlemen, The digital transformation we are facing today is primarily driven by operators and private companies that continue to invest heavily in this area and seize the opportunities and the potential it offers. Considering the important economic, financial and social implications of such a revolution, public authorities are compelled to set an adequate legal framework and provide an environment  conducive  to  technological  innovations  and  Fintech  development.

Our target is not only to adapt our business lines and redesign our processes, but also to play a role in the development and support of our ecosystem, through a participatory approach. Ladies and gentlemen, To conclude, I would say that we may have taken some time to grasp the scale of the digital revolution, but the numerous initiatives and interactions, such as this meeting, leave us with the hope that the backlog will be quickly cleared and that this revolution will effectively contribute to sustainable and inclusive development in our countries. In this respect, we are pleased to note the willingness of international organizations, including the IMF, main interlocutor of central banks, to upgrade their means and human resources with a view to providing support to their member countries. As such, I suggest, if you deem it suitable, that we request the Fund to institutionalize such a meeting in our region, at the frequency most appropriate to us. Hence, we would be able to continue the debates and exchanges, assess the progress made, ultimately unite our efforts, and capitalize on our mutual experiences in order to better address the current and future challenges of digital transformation. Thank you. 10
Determining appropriate capital adequacy standards for the shadow banking system will indeed be a key challenge in an effective redesign of the regulatory system. A related challenge is to ensure that tighter capital standards for banks and other highly regulated entities do not result in their simply shifting activity to less regulated areas, including off-balance-sheet activities such as structured investment vehicles. This would simply encourage more risk taking and raise systemic risk as well, since many off-balancesheet activities could end up being effectively on-balance sheet at times of crises. However, the truth is that we are far from completely figuring out how to control these institutions and types of transactions and it is unlikely that there will be an approach clever enough to provide the same level of systemic protection in regard to shadow banks as there will be for highly regulated entities. Conclusion When scrutinizing the impact of the regulatory changes on the EE’s, there are no doubts that the reform process is an important qualitative step forward for the overall financial industry and its implementation will mean more stable financial sector, lower probability of financial crisis and less “headaches” for the authorities responsible for macroeconomic and financial policies. Yet, apparently, there are many angles within the new regulation which should be further well screened and assessed in terms of their potential adverse impact, especially in emerging markets due to different challenges.

In our region, the recovery of activity and employment has continued, though the data indicate relatively stronger performance in New York State and New York City than in New Jersey, while Puerto Rico has yet to show any meaningful improvement. Our special topic shows a trend toward job polarization both in the nation and the region, which focuses our attention on the ever-growing importance for workers to acquire skills and upgrade their skills on an ongoing basis. I will now ask Jim Orr to present the update of economic conditions in our region. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
4  BIS Review 51/2002  Secondly, ERM2 provides to the new member states a necessary and useful interim stage between the EU accession and the adoption of the euro. The choice of monetary and exchange rate policies in new member states has been diverse. ERM2 is a suitable and flexible means for the harmonisation of varied monetary policies and applied tools. The post-accession period will most likely be a serious test phase to most member states - definitely Estonia - in elaboration of their economic and fiscal policies and relevant co-operation with the EU institutions. Participation in the development of economic policy guidelines sets relatively high demands both on actual policy formulation and institutional co-operation. Naturally this process will have two parties - the present applicant countries will have joining in the EU processes whereas the “old” member states will have to study the key problems the new members states face in their economic development. The post-accession ERM2 phase is an appropriate time for the establishment of the comprehensive co-operation in the economic policy area on the national as well as the European Union level. The “testing” of the economies’ competitive abilities will also be crucial - not by means of the exchange rates but interest rates. Maastricht criteria For Estonia like for all new member states the only possible way to join the euro system is to do it in full compliance with the letter and spirit of the EU Treaty.

In addition to the unified money market in the euro zone, we should aspire towards the full integration of capital markets. Simplified procedures for the adoption of secondary legislation that regulates the financial services area are an important step forward. The convergence of financial markets calls for a more extensive harmonisation of the legal environment in various countries. But it also requires closer co-operation between various national supervisory authorities and/or better co-ordination of supervision functions on the EU level. In addition, it should be taken into account that capital transfers between the member states would be easier if business laws and regulations of different countries are harmonised. Here I could mention rules governing companies’ mergers and takeovers, bankruptcy procedures, state aid distribution terms and conditions. A flexible labour market is extremely important for the effective common monetary policy purposes. However, it is unlikely that in the near future Europe will see any notable crossborder migration of the labour force - it is not expected to happen before or after the EU enlargement. Therefore, limited flexibility of the labour market should be offset by an efficient internal market, high capital mobility and greater flexibility of the domestic labour market. Fiscal policy - fiscal federalism In addition to the above-mentioned supply-related issues, the EU and its member states’ fiscal policy principles in the context of the common monetary policy have been under special scrutiny. It has been stated that enhanced co-operation within the fiscal policy area will allow to mitigate potential economic difficulties in various countries.