samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
584–596; and Samuelson, P. (1964). “Theoretical notes on trade problems,” Review of Economics and Statistics 46, pp. 145–154. For an application to the euro area, see: Honohan, P. and P.R. Lane (2003). “Divergent inflation rates in the euro area,” Economic Policy 37, pp.359-94. 2  See: Bayoumi, T. and B. Eichengreen (1992). “Shocking aspects of European Monetary Unification,” NBER working paper no. 3949; Obstfeld, M. and G. Peri (1999), “Regional nonadjustment and fiscal policy: Lessons for EMU,” NBER Working Paper No 6431. 3  An analysis of this issue made prior to the introduction of the euro is offered by: Dornbusch, R., C.A. Favero and F. Giavazzi (1998). “Immediate challenges for the ECB: Issues in formulating a single monetary policy,” Economic Policy 26, pp. 25–64. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  recent years has been driven by differences in the impact and diffusion of a common shock, namely the financial crisis. The crisis has been a global shock that affected all countries in the euro area – and others, of course. It started with the emergence of market tensions in mid-2007 associated with uncertainty about the valuation of US mortgage-backed securities and escalated sharply in September 2008 with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. The varying impact of this shock on financial conditions across countries has led to a potential for dramatically different transmission of the single monetary policy stance determined by the ECB’s Governing Council.

Important to quantify the risks Normally, all risks that may have significance for the monetary policy decisions have been gone through by the Monetary Policy Department or the Financial Stability Department. But events may of course occur that are impossible to predict, or risks may arise at a later stage in the process that are very difficult to evaluate, such as the effects of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in autumn 2008. One central issue with regard to how the monetary policy decision-making process is set up is what stance the decision-makers, that is, the Executive Board, should take with regard to risks that for various reasons are not directly incorporated in the forecasts. If individual Executive Board members consider that there are observable risks and suspect that these may have significant consequences, the Riksbank will of course try to analyse these in depth. But it is not always easy to quantify such risks, and thus it may be difficult to include them in the actual forecast. The question then is how these risks should be taken into account in the monetary policy decisions. I consider it important to try to quantify as far as possible the risks deemed relevant to the monetary policy decisions. This is particularly so when it comes to risks with a low probability, but which would have substantial consequences for the way the economy develops, such as a burst housing bubble, so it is important to try to quantify how the risks are affected by the various alternative actions.
It has long been known that projects usually end in failure not because they are bad but because somebody does not understand what his or her role in the process involves, or even why this process exists. Communication improves the level of understanding and acceptance on the part of all stakeholders. It helps create commitment observed in diasporas, and also creates room for internal motivation. It was as early as at the beginning of the 21 century that public administration in Singapore knew the art of project implementation, which institutionalised the role of communication in project planning. 1 p.m. Lunch with a friend. Global brought him a small gift from his weekend family trip to an exotic country. It was a real bargain, and it only took a few minutes to arrange for the trip on the way home from the Friday visit to a modern art gallery. Both Global and his wife are lovers of modern art. All they had to do was to get in touch with their virtual travel agent and they could both go through the offers displayed on the screen in his car, consulting an e-expert. They decided to go for the most exotic trip, which was also quite affordable. Global competition does its job. Their only concern was not to miss the plane. Global and his friend do not waste their time ordering meals, as an e-waiter has already sent suggested menu to their communicators (in Global’s case, consulted with his e-dietician).

STAGE 3 – TWO-WAY INTERACTION The publicly accessible website offers the possibility of an electronic intake with an official electronic form to start the procedure to obtain this service. This implies that there must be a form of authentication of the person requesting the services (75% – 99% in the figure). Stage 4 – Full electronic case handling: The publicly accessible website offers the possibility to completely treat the public service via the website, including decision and delivery. No other formal procedure is necessary for the applicant via "paperwork" (100% in the figure). More information available in Online Availability of Public Services: How is Europe Progressing? Web Based Survey on Electronic Public Services. Report of the Fifth Measurement, Capgemini for European Commission, October 2004. BIS Review 90/2006  7
Dimitar Bogov: When pressures on prices are relieved, we will stimulate economic growth Interview with Mr Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, in “Kapital” weekly magazine, published on 8 November 2012. *  *  *  Bank affairs are always possible In the countries in the region banking affairs have erupted, in connection with criminal activities of some banks in conjunction with politicians. What is the situation in Macedonia? Is everything under control in the banking sector? NBRM controls the banks in terms of their compliance with the regulations, the quality of corporate governance, and assesses the risks that banks undertake in their operations. Banking supervision is a strong prevention against criminal operation. But that does not mean that as anywhere in the world, banking affairs could not take place also in the banking sector in Macedonia. Spasijka Jovanova The National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia lowered the forecasts for the economic growth this year to 1 percent and raised the concerns of inflation. The condition when no growth is registered, i.e. there is a downturn, and there is higher inflation, is called stagflation, which is the worst stage of an economic crisis. Is the Macedonian economy in such a stage? I would not agree that the Macedonian economy is entering stagflation. However, there were unusual movements in the world economy.

Macedonia will have to save more What are your expectations for the Macedonian economy in 2013, which is expected to be perhaps more difficult and more turbulent than this year? What, according to you, will be the biggest economic challenges and problems next year? It will be another year full of uncertainty for the world and especially for the European economy. Thus, the export demand for Macedonian products is unlikely to improve. So, we cannot expect that to boost economic growth. However, our expectation for the economic growth in Macedonia is to be much better than this year, driven by diversification of the production into new export-oriented facilities that started to work this year, or will start to work in the next year, as well as infrastructural facilities for which funding has already been secured from foreign sources. Both politicians and economists globally are of a divided opinion in terms of the economic policy that should be conducted in order to emerge from the crisis. Some advocate austerity, others encourage spending to stimulate growth. Which policy you prefer and think is right for Macedonia? According to me, those are “false” discussions. If a country has a room for increased spending, certainly now is the time to stimulate the economy. But unfortunately, there are not many such countries worldwide. Developed economies were spending more than they could afford for years, and now they do not have any room for fiscal stimulus left.
Both are intended to make Swiss franc investments less attractive, thereby easing pressure on the franc. This is important given that the franc remains significantly overvalued. Our expansionary monetary policy is aimed at stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Our new conditional inflation forecast suggests that inflation will rise faster over the coming quarters than we predicted in March, principally due to the significant increase in oil prices in the intervening period. The effect of this oil price rise on annual inflation vanishes after the first quarter of 2017. The new conditional forecast moves closer to that of the last quarter from then on, and is in line with it from 2018. This forecast shows that our expectations for the medium-term development of inflation and the Swiss economy remain essentially unchanged. At –0.4%, our inflation forecast for the current year is 0.4 percentage points higher than in March. For 2017, we expect inflation to be 0.3%, somewhat higher than assumed in the previous quarter. For 2018, we continue to anticipate inflation of 0.9%. The conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the three-month Libor will remain at – 0.75% over the entire forecast horizon. Global economic outlook Since the assessment of the inflation and economic outlook for Switzerland is heavily influenced by economic developments abroad, let me now present our assessment of the global economy. The moderate recovery in the global economy is continuing, supported by ongoing highly expansionary monetary policy worldwide.

Compensation for the gold price risk and the dollar exchange rate risk, in particular, is relatively poor. It is therefore inevitable that tighter bounds will be set on SNB profit distribution, once the existing distribution reserve has been exhausted. BIS Review 123/2006  3
But the flip-side is that this process has moved forward in fits and starts, it has not enjoyed a broad degree of consensus and it has sometimes failed to be as rigorous and ambitious as the gravity of the situation required. Likewise, since the onset of the tensions there has been – occasionally notable – headway in the ongoing adjustment of the most vulnerable national economies, sometimes in step with the strict conditionality imposed under the financial support programmes under way. But here, too, action has broadly tended to be behind instead of ahead of events. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  In these conditions, it is the European Central Bank that has positioned itself as the fundamental bulwark against the crisis. And, ultimately, this is buying time for the Member State governments, in both their responsibility for domestic economic policies and as co-managers of the common European Project, to make resolute progress in resolving the problems at the root of this crisis. We should not forget that the extensive range of non-conventional measures deployed by the ECB since the start of the crisis – the 3-year LTROs being one of the most recent and successful examples here – are, by their very nature, limited over time. And, more important still, these measures do not affect the fundamental imbalances which are ultimately at the source of and responsible for the crisis.

For instance, organising this forum in Bucharest might be an opportunity for us to persuade our guests to get a flavour of the Romanian wines. As far as the Czech beer is concerned, Romanians do not need much convincing – they are already into it. I do wish you all excellent and productive discussions. Thank you! 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
We can quantify the losses in terms of days of lost output. Given the regional GDP of $ trillion, a rough calculation yields a loss of $ billion for each full-day equivalent of lost output in the region. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  A considerable part of this lost activity will be offset over time or be replaced by a temporary shift of activity from hard-hit areas to less-affected places. But, in a services-based economy, much activity cannot be shifted in time: restaurants, for instance, can’t serve six meals a day to make up for lost business. The fact that many people who would have dined in lower Manhattan in the weeks following Sandy are instead patronizing restaurants near their homes or near temporary work sites represents an offset for the regional economy as a whole. But that’s little consolation for the original restaurant, which may in turn need to lay off some of its people or could even possibly go out of business. And, of course, this applies even more dramatically to businesses in hard-hit places along the regional shoreline. Against this, reconstruction began soon after the storm was over and has likely intensified since then. The repair and replacement of damaged or destroyed infrastructure, homes, and businesses is likely to continue for some time. Programs will need to be well designed in order to achieve maximum beneficial impact.

Failure would suggest a degree of political dysfunction that could undermine U.S. economic leadership and could encourage global corporations and investors to invest elsewhere. Make no mistake: Credible fiscal consolidation will not be painless, no matter what form it takes. The burden will be felt across many sectors of the economy and we must expect that the resulting fiscal drag will exert some restraint on economic growth. Nevertheless, there is no reason why a carefully crafted plan would need to put the economic recovery at risk. A credible plan, after all, would likely have very positive effects on confidence. In particular, I believe that business investment would respond positively to a credible plan. More generally, reducing uncertainty over future tax rates, entitlements and other spending programs has to be a positive development in terms of reducing uncertainty that can constrain economic activity. By clarifying the rules of the road, a credible fiscal plan is likely to reduce the incentive of households and businesses to delay spending and investment. This would likely offset fiscal drag to a meaningful degree. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Conclusion To sum up, while it is still too early for a precise estimate of the economic impact of Sandy, I expect a negative impact on fourth quarter national and regional economic growth, but a minimal long run effect nationally and regionally. This has happened during a period where too many people remain without the jobs that they need to help support their families and themselves.
It must be borne in mind that models are no more than a highly simplified and limited image of the real world. While their simplicity does make them very useful in the work of identifying risks, it is also perhaps their chief disadvantage. Models fail to catch a great deal of what is happening in a dynamic and complex environment. Events in the autumn of 1998 and the problems at that time in connection with the American hedge fund LTCM are a telling example of the limitations of risk models, or perhaps rather of errors in the ways they are used. Firstly, there was the evident difficulty in separating the management of market risks from credit risks. As a result of major shifts in market prices, the credit risks, which had seemed to be negligible initially, suddenly became considerable. Loans are often provided against collateral in the form of securities; the securities are not pledged for their full value, which leaves a margin for unforeseen events. This buffer, however, is often relatively small. Additional collateral, it is said, can always be called for if market prices make this necessary. Alternatively, the existing collateral can be realised. There has been a tendency to disregard both the potential credit risk in arrangements of this type and the possible refinancing and liquidity risks. What happened with LTCM in the autumn of 1998 showed that market value can deteriorate so rapidly that there is not enough time for calling in and receiving additional collateral.

It is not sustainable in the long term to have a wage development that entails the cost of labour increasing more than the value of the goods and services produced. This means that real wage costs can only increase at the same rate as productivity growth. The stronger the growth in productivity, the higher the wage costs can be without triggering inflation, as long as they take into account any reduction in working hours and other secondary wage costs. The basis for this reasoning is that the economy is in balance, which is characterised by, for instance, stable wage shares and profit shares. Profit shares - profits as a percentage of value added - have fluctuated around 30 per cent for the entire economy. Since 1995, real wage costs have risen more quickly than productivity growth and wage shares. This is not sustainable in the long run. It is necessary, in the long term, for wage shares and profit shares to be at a level where profitability in Sweden is on a par with our competitors to safeguard a level of capital formation and employment that will best promote the development of our welfare. 2  BIS Review 7/2003  A couple of different approaches/rules of thumb are used in the wage formation debate to evaluate the scope for wage increases in the long term, or to estimate a "wage cost norm".
All in all, the prospects for inflation from the demand side look a bit better than they did when the repo rate was last raised. Another positive sign is that the wage agreements that have been concluded so far in 1998 indicate a rate of wage increases that is somewhat lower than in the main scenario described in December. However the recent weakening of the krona is a cause for concern. If it turns out to be permanent, it could affect inflation prospects. In the Riksbank we are now finalising the next Inflation Report, in which we will present an inflation forecast reaching into the first quarter of the year 2000. There, factors such as the Asian crisis, the wage negotiations and the exchange rate developments will be weighed and put into a larger context. The view of the inflation prospects that will result from this process will form the basis for future monetary policy.

The Relation Between a Central Bank’s Degree of Independence and Inflation 14  ITA  12  SP NZLD  8  UK FRA SWE DEN CDA  6  BEL  4  NLD  10  AUS  USA JPN  GER SWZ  2 0 0  1  2 3 Degree of independence  4  5  Source: SOU (Govt official reports) 1993:20  It should be stressed that an independent position for the Riksbank is not the same thing as a monetary policy conducted without democratic control. The monetary policy objective has been made law by those who are popularly elected. It is making the objective operational  BIS Review 14/1998  -6-  and the ongoing work to secure the goal decided by the Riksdag that has been delegated to the Riksbank. Question 4: Why 2 per cent? The question of how the monetary policy objective should be made operational has several dimensions. By selecting a clear objective for monetary policy, it is possible to monitor and evaluate it in an effective way. This is especially important when the Riksbank is being given an independent status. A clearly defined inflation objective also has the advantage of being able to function as an “anchor” for households’ and businesses’ expectations. This function alone can be an important feature, not least when a regime of low inflation is being established. The objective for the Riksbank’s monetary policy is inflation of 2 per cent annually, as measured by the consumer price index.
Figure 6 Imacec (*)  Mining activity  (change from previous moving quarter, percent) (annual change, percent)  3  3  40  2  20  20  1  0  0  Total 2 Nonmining  1  0  0  -20  -1  -1  -40  15  16  17  18  19  Mining output index-20  -40 15  16  (*) Seasonally-adjusted series. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE). 11  40  Mining Imacec  17  18  19  Figure 7 Manufacturing exports (*) (contribution to annual change, percentage points)  15  15  10  10  5  5  0  0  -5  -5  -10  -10  -15  -15  -20  -20 2014  2015  2016 Price  Volume  2017 Total  2018  (*) Component of price obtained using differential between nominal and real exports. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

Chilean exports performed well during 2018, partly reflecting an increase in volume exports from all economic sectors in general. Worth noting were shipments manufacturing products, which reached their highest nominal growth since 2011, supported also by the favorable evolution of the international prices of many of these products (figure 7). IV. International scenario  Internationally, there has been a more marked slowdown in growth in the main economies. The data was particularly weak in the Eurozone, with a significant adjustment of trade inside and outside the region in the fourth quarter of 2018. In China, growth went from 6.8% in the first quarter, to 6.4% in the fourth. Moreover, concerns about how intense this global deceleration may become have been exacerbated. Different shortterm activity indicators underperformed the market forecast: the outlook for firms in the manufacturing sector (PMI) has deteriorated, manufacturing output has slowed or even contracted in several economies and international trade has weakened (figure 8). Preoccupation over the weakening of the economies, together with lower inflationary pressures and high financial volatility, resulted in an increase in monetary and/or fiscal stimuli in several countries. In the US, the Federal Reserve took a considerable turn in its monetary policy stance, showing itself open to maintaining its  4  expansionary orientation for some time longer, in contrast to the tighter signals emitted up to the third quarter. This led to a significant decline in US long-term interest rates. which has even translated into reversal of the US yield curve (figure 9).
Sukhdave Singh: Global RMB – challenges and implications Keynote speech by Dr Sukhdave Singh, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the HSBC Forum: China Globalising: RMB Rising (Malaysia) – “Global RMB: Challenges and Implications”, Kuala Lumpur, 12 August 2014. *  *  *  It is an honour and pleasure to be here with you this morning to talk about what is likely to be the most important development affecting the global monetary system since the introduction of euro. Should the RMB become a global currency, it will transform the global financial landscape. In fact, the RMB could potentially define this century, in the same manner that the US dollar dominated the previous century. In my remarks today, I would like to share some thoughts on the potential for the RMB to achieve the status of a global currency. Where it to do so, what will the potential impact be on the global monetary system? Finally, I will touch on the implications for Malaysia. The world is ready, is China ready? From where we stand today, the world is clearly ready for a global RMB. The question is whether China itself is ready. There is no question that the RMB would become an international currency. The only question is how big of an international currency. Will the RMB’s role in the international trade and finance reflect the status of China as the second largest, and soon to be the largest, economy in the world?

American companies have a strong collective interest in sustaining public support for global integration, improving the quality of public goods the government provides in education, health care and infrastructure, and in preserving confidence in U.S. fiscal sustainability. Thank you. 4  BIS Review 84/2007