samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
That will put further pressure on global capacity, extending an increase in shipping costs that started in late 2020 and had already exceeded my expectations, meaning that the current increase in shipping costs could have an impact on consumer prices at least until the end of the year. I also agree with the Committee’s assessment in June that there are now “two-sided risks” around that central path, for both GDP and inflation. Indeed for me that updated assessment is one of the most significant implications of developments since May, when the MPC still judged the risks to GDP to be skewed 8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  8  to the downside in the near term. For that reason I want to spend some time setting out what I see as the key risks and how they might evolve – a survey, if you like, of what new features future editions of our map of the economy might need to incorporate. Two sided risks  I should say right away that the downside risks to GDP and inflation from Covid remain clear and present. Although the UK’s vaccination programme has proved successful, the pandemic in the UK and the wider world is not yet over. It remains to be seen what the full impact of the new Delta variant will be and how households and businesses respond to the combination of the current rise in infection rates and the impending lifting of remaining restrictions.

Taken at face value, the increase since the start of the year might suggest some pass-through from nearterm to longer-term UK inflation expectations. Indeed interpreted literally it would imply markets expected inflation to be a full 15 basis points higher on average over the five-to-ten year horizon relative to the start of the year. And stepping back from the month-on-month variation, it is noteworthy that the UK measure, unlike those for the US and euro area, stands above rather than below its historic average (shown by the dashed lines). This indicator is, however, a difficult one to read. UK inflation markets are sensitive in general to non-fundamental factors – although it is less obvious that these have played a role this time.5 Bank staff also estimate that the increase this year reflects an increase in inflation risk premia, which could in turn reflect a reduction in the risk of disinflation; that would be a more benign development than the alternative of an increase in underlying expectations. And the recent fall-back in rates makes me somewhat less concerned than I might have been before. Nonetheless, the increase in this measure since the start of the year does suggest all else equal there may be some risk of more persistent inflation than the MPC had factored into its central expectation.
Last but not least, the NBC also has been working closely with the Association of Banks in Cambodia (ABC) and Cambodian Microfinance Association (CMA) to initiate various activities and campaigns to increase financial literacy for the public, especially for women. Although financial inclusion is a journey, I believe that we have done quite a lot so far to help equip women and women entrepreneurs with foundational financial knowledge needed for their daily lives as well as businesses. Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen! I believe that the potential of young women and women entrepreneurs shall not only be limited by social and cultural barriers or the environment they live. On the contrary, they should have equal opportunities to release their full potential in every endeavor. To this end, immediate supportive measures shall be addressed to strengthen their skills, business linkages. For that, participation from all relevant stakeholders is needed. This is why WE-Act project is such a powerful example of how one can make a lot of impact in this space. I believe that the achievements to be presented today will reflect the pathway toward empowerment and success for young women entrepreneurs all over the country. 2  Lastly, I would like to once again express my deepest appreciation and thanks to USAID for their support, PACT Cambodia for collaboration, and all key players for implementing WE Act 5-year project as well as to update key achivements and progress in this event.

I am hopeful that the remaining two years of the project would bring even more wonderful results. I also want to take this opportunity to encourage all related stakeholders to continue their supports for young women and women entrepreneurs so that we may ever move closer to the ideal of a prosperous, harmonious, inclusive and equal society. In closing, I would like to wish Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen good luck, good health, and success in every circumstance. Thank you! 3
We also need to make supervisory colleges more effective, including: •  Constructing the colleges with the appropriate members reflecting the key jurisdictions based on the scale or criticality of activities;  •  Ensuring robust dialogue between supervisors and firms in college settings;  •  Providing direct and candid feedback to firms and supervisors following from the interactions; and  •  Agreeing on key messages to firms or areas of supervisory focus to ensure consistency across home and host supervisors. I don’t mean to suggest that coordination isn’t underway already – because there is – but there are many reasons to be hopeful that even more progress will be made in the near-term. •  There are efforts such as those of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the Senior Supervisors Group (SSG) to promote enhanced information sharing and collaboration among supervisors. •  I’m particularly excited about the recent opening of the BIS’s Data Hub – a move designed to provide a more efficient and practical mechanism for supervisors – and eventually central banks and other relevant bodies – to share information on global banks’ activities and exposures. 3. AML/BSA compliance  A third area I wanted to touch on is one that I raised last year – AML/BSA compliance.

Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: Enabling environment for capacity building Opening speech by Mrs Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Vice-Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the Center of Excellence in Finance (CEF) coordinators meeting, Skopje, 1 December 2010. *  *  *  Dear ladies and gentlemen, Dear CEF coordinators, distinguished representatives of central banks and ministries of finance in the region, dear representatives of the International Monetary Fund, International Labor Organization and, last but not least, dear organizers of this event, representatives of the CEF (Center of Excellence in Finance), I wish you all a warm welcome. I am delighted that this year the traditional meeting of the CEF-coordinators takes place in the Republic of Macedonia and it is focused on a very important topic: “Enabling environment for capacity building”. No doubts that the knowledge does not have boundaries. All of us, during our lifetime do try to compile as much wisdom as possible, to broaden our knowledge horizon and augment what we already know. In our professional life, we face a constant intellectual and public debate, which tries to challenge the existing paradigms, to offer new insights and to establish new norms. All of this, of course, for the purpose of building stronger intellectual and analytical capacity for efficiently coping with forthcoming professional challenges. Sometimes, unprecedented events are needed to reveal the deficiencies in the currently accepted system of knowledge. These types of events underscore the weaknesses and pinpoint the missing parts of the puzzle.
11  Carlson, Duygan-Bump, and Nelson (2015) argue that central bank liquidity provision and liquidity regulations are complementary tools. 12  The Bank of England (2013) defines stigma as “the risk that drawings from [the central bank’s liquidity] facilities may be taken as a signal (by investors, depositors, rating agencies, regulators or even firms’ own boards of directors) of more serious weaknesses at the firm in question. 13  See for example Federal Reserve (2007). 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  This led to the creation of the Term Auction Facility, or TAF, which used an auction mechanism to allocate funds in the hope that banks would feel more comfortable borrowing if other banks were doing the same. The TAF was a success and can perhaps teach us something about ways to mitigate stigma. The ECB seems to have had a different experience. Its lending facilities do not appear to have suffered from stigma to the same extent as those in the U.S. or the U.K. 14 This is related to the fact that banks rely more consistently on central bank provided liquidity in the euro area. This difference could perhaps provide insights into what gives rise to stigma and how to address it. In any case, understanding stigma, and potential ways to mitigate it, seems like an under-researched area at the moment. 15 Let me put aside stigma now and focus on moral hazard.

Banks also used around $ billion in vault cash to satisfy reserve requirements; however, since vault cash cannot be used to clear Fedwire payments, it has no intraday impact on federal funds trading activity. 4  During the first half of 2016, less than 5 percent of fed funds transactions were interbank transactions, based on the FR2420 data, or about $ billion per day on average. 5  Nonbank financial institutions, such as mutual funds, money market mutual funds, and asset managers, among others, play an important role as lenders in U.S. money markets. The role played by these institutions in the euro area is considerably smaller. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  In the current U.S. system, the interest rate at which nonbanks lend to banks is determined in large part by the competition among banks. Banks’ borrowings increase the amount of reserves on which they earn interest. The new environment has delivered outcomes that we have traditionally liked, such as a low volatility of market rates. This should not be surprising; if the same counterparties trade with each other day after day, they don’t have a strong incentive to renegotiate the interest rate at which they trade every day, relative to the policy rate. In contrast, if banks trade with each other infrequently, because one happens to have too many reserves on a given day and the other happens to have too few, they will have to negotiate a rate for that trade.
Although we are also able to influence inflation in the shorter run, doing so is normally inappropriate because it is liable to result in large fluctuations in production and employment. Of course the rule is not applied mechanically. The basic intention is to stabilise inflation around the target and at the same time avoid unduly large fluctuations in production and employment. We tend to disregard economic shocks with effects on inflation that can be assumed to be only transitory. Moreover, there may be grounds for heeding the expected course of events beyond the regular target horizon. There may be a case for adjusting the repo rate immediately if there are already strong reasons for expecting a marked increase or decrease in inflation directly after the two-year horizon. Another point to remember is the Riksbank's mandate to promote a safe and efficient payment system; problems in this context may call for interest rate adjustments even though the inflation target is not threatened. Such adjustments may be needed both to prevent potential risks from building up in the payment system and to moderate effects of problems that have already arisen. However, departures of this type from the normal decision rule should be made restrictively. Moreover, deviations should be stated clearly, and carefully justified. Favourable economic development over several years Under the new regime the Swedish economy has experienced several years of strong growth. Since the upturn began in the summer of 1993, the annual GDP growth rate has averaged around 3 per cent.

Joseph Yam: Reflections relevant to the banking profession in Hong Kong Speech by Mr Joseph Yam, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Joint HKAB – HKIB Dinner in honour of Mr Joseph Yam's retirement as Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong, 28 September 2009. *  *  *  Peter, friends and colleagues of the banking profession, Not only am I deeply touched by all of the kind and generous words that have been said this evening, but I have also been greatly impressed by the skits and other entertainments put on this evening. I had always assumed that whatever surplus talents bankers may have were always used up on the golf course. Now I know that these talents stretch in other, more cultural directions. Thank you all for such an enjoyable and unforgettable evening. This is a convivial occasion, and the last thing you will want to hear is a long and earnest speech from me. However, this will be my last formal event with you as Monetary Authority. And I think you all know me well enough to expect more than just a few words of gratitude – however heartfelt – for this splendid event. I shall be brief. Much has been said and written recently about the origins, progress and implications of the global financial crisis that erupted with such fury just over a year ago.
20  Rajan (2005) argues that the “search for yield” was an important ingredient in the story of the crisis. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  long-term commitments (pension funds and insurance companies, for example) need to match the yield they promised on their liabilities, with the yield on their assets. When interest rates are high, they can invest in safe assets to generate the necessary revenue. When interest rates are low, however, they are forced to invest in riskier assets to continue to meet their target nominal rate of return. That tends to push down risk premia and lower the price of borrowing. Other investors too find it difficult to accept that in a world of low nominal and real interest rates equilibrium rates of return will not meet their previous expectations. 21 If these mechanisms are important, the financial cycle may be heavily influenced by monetary policy, especially when interest rates are low. That also creates the possibility of a trade-off between monetary and financial stability. All three examples suggest that the conventional analysis of the trade-off between the volatility of inflation and the volatility of output is likely to be far too optimistic. Does this add up to a case for “leaning against the wind” of rising asset prices rather than waiting to “mop” up after the bust? Certainly we have seen that monetary policy cannot fully offset the effects of financial crises for two reasons. First, crises may impact output before the response of monetary policy is felt.

The tendencies that I have described can be problematic in their own right but in no way fatal, as the experience of New Zealand and others attests to. It is when they interact badly with other economic and financial risks that can face small, open and financially integrated economies – such as the global credit cycle, domestic financial vulnerabilities, policy conflicts, and asymmetric shocks – that we can have a lethal cocktail. This was the case in Iceland. To demonstrate this, let me take a stylised example which is, I admit, heavily influenced by the experience of my own country. A small, open, and financially integrated economy develops a positive output gap that is larger than in the rest of the world. The economy is booming and is seen as a good investment by outside investors. This occurs in a situation where the global credit cycle is in a strong upswing. The result is capital inflows and upward pressures on the exchange rate. The country has a floating exchange rate and has adopted a flexible inflation targeting regime. Monetary policy therefore reacts by raising interest rates due to the risks that the booming economy poses for future inflation. This, however, widens the interest rate differential vis-à-vis the rest of the world and sucks in even more capital through carry trade and other channels. The currency therefore appreciates further. This helps to limit inflation, both directly, through lower imported inflation in terms of domestic currency, and indirectly, by directing demand abroad.
The DFAST and CCAR stress tests adopt a “walk-through-time” approach, in which net income and capital ratios are calculated on a quarterby-quarter basis throughout the stress test horizon.10 An alternative approach would be to apply cumulative losses and revenues in a single, instantaneous shock – this was what was done in the SCAP. While the two approaches might be assumed to produce roughly consistent results, the walk-through-time approach may better capture true vulnerabilities, especially in cases where negative net income quarters come early in the stress test horizon but revenues accrue most strongly in subsequent quarters. The instantaneous shock approach implicitly recognizes revenues from later in the horizon as offsets to losses that occur early in the horizon and thus may overstate true capital resources. The tradeoff is that the walk-through-time approach implies a degree of precision about the quarter-by-quarter pattern of losses and revenues that might be beyond the capabilities of existing modeling technology (this was the judgment at the time of the SCAP). But the walk-through-time approach requires further assumptions, particularly regarding the evolution of the balance sheet. These assumptions range from how to capture maturing loans and securities; what to assume about prepayments; what new lending occurs over the horizon (including replacement of maturing or prepaid positions); and whether to assume that the bank is actively managing its exposures by additional hedging, changes in the credit composition of its portfolios, or restriction of credit supply.

At that date, the Governing Council will decide on whether to launch a digital euro. We will then need a few years of serious preparatory work to turn an e-euro into reality. * Let me say it again: on both digital currency and payments, we in Europe must be ready to move as quickly as needed or risk an erosion of our monetary sovereignty – something we cannot tolerate. European citizens must have access durably to effective and independent means of exchange. Recent experience in another field shows that we can do it. Six years ago, there was almost no climate policy among central bankers. Today it has become an important topic with concrete technical advances. I could have spoken of another “road for the future”: green finance. Here also, France and Europe have a strong initial advantage: Paris is home to the global secretariat of the NGFS with about 100 members now; its financial centre participants are ahead in their disclosure of and commitments regarding climate-related risks; France is the  first European country in terms of outstanding of green bonds. And last month, the French ACPR published the first climate pilot exercise worldwide actively involving both the banking and insurance sectors.
Swedish investment in foreign countries amounted to approximately SEK 200 billion in 2005, while Swedish industrial companies’ investment in foreign debt securities increased by almost SEK 70 billion. The capital inflow during the same period was approximately SEK 100 billion. 8 According to Swedish companies, one of the main reasons why their export flows remain abroad is that expansion in new markets and new production capacity occur mainly abroad and not in Sweden. 9 The fact that an increasing share of direct investment is aimed towards emerging economies in South East Asia is part of an international trend that can be seen in most OECD countries. It can be assumed that the effects on the world economy of the integration of, for instance, China and India, will continue for some time to come. There is a long way to go before the whole of China is included in the global market economy. However, it has recently been possible to see some inward movement within the country as wages have risen in the coastal regions. Nevertheless, there still remain many hundreds of millions of poor people in China who are prepared to take jobs with very low remuneration compared with the wages paid in Sweden, for example. One effect that is of significant importance to the Riksbank is lower prices in international trading. The low inflation in Sweden over the past years can be explained by low import prices and high productivity.

Over time, and the experience of successive banking crises, LOLR has been supplemented by an extensive prudential regulatory regime, requiring banks to take greater ownership of managing their own risks, and setting quantitative minima for liquidity buffers. In short, a banking version of Chart 2.7  But while LOLR may have been primarily focused on banks, there are also historical precedents for central banks stepping in to restore broader market functioning at critical moments. In July 1914, for example, the Bank of England made large-scale purchases of bills of exchange after the uncertainty caused by the onset of World War 1 brought the market to a halt, threatening widespread contagion (the bill market was at that time the engine of global trade finance).8 The Federal Reserve took similar actions in the US Treasury bond market in 1939 (at the start of World War 2), 1958 (following a regime change in government funding arrangements) and 1970 (amidst unrest over the Vietnam war).9  By degrees, these and other actions show a gradual broadening in focus by central banks from backstopping the funding liquidity of banks to backstopping market liquidity,10 when severe dysfunction threatens financial stability. ‘Currency and Credit’ (1919) and ‘The Art of Central Banking’ (1932), by Ralph George Hawtrey. ‘Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market’ (1875), by Walter Bagehot. 7 These tools have been further supplemented by deposit insurance, macroprudential and resolution frameworks, though these are typically more focused on solvency than liquidity considerations.