samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Other examples are the fact that we have scheduled an extra monetary policy meeting this autumn, that we brought forward our most recent interest rate decision and also the scope of the most recent interest rate cuts. Under the circumstances now prevailing in the global financial crisis, we six members of the Executive Board must be able to quickly agree on various measures. One of the advantages of allowing a central bank to be governed by a group of decision-makers is that it leads to better decisions when different opinions and types of competence are combined. However, one risk is that different opinions could create difficulties in reaching agreement and lead to a slower decision-making process. But our experience so far is that when our ability to act has been put to the test, we have managed to "deliver". The fact that we are a group of policymakers who sometimes have different views of things has not been an obstacle. 6  BIS Review 155/2008  Future challenges The financial crisis is one of the most difficult challenges we have faced during my time at the Riksbank and the problems of dealing with it largely remain ahead of us. This is to a great extent a question of issues that need to be resolved on an international level. This includes, for instance, a review of the regulatory framework, the opportunities for insight and the fact that investors must be able, and have stronger incentives, to assess the risks to which they are actually exposing themselves.

The SME Bank, a specialised agency dedicated to the promotion of SME development, will commence operations in October 2005 and is envisaged to better serve the needs of SMEs through the provision of a comprehensive range of financial and non-financial services. In particular, the SME Bank will focus on nurturing the SMEs and promoting entrepreneural development, through the provision of financial and business advisory services, including financial management, business diagnosis and marketing support. Recognising the importance of human resource development as part of the capacity and capability enhancement strategy, several initiatives have also been undertaken to enhance the skills of DFIs, particulary in the provision of advisory services and micro financing. In collaboration with the Japan International Cooperation Agency, Bank Negara Malaysia is currently embarking on a project to enhance the capabilities of DFIs in providing advisory services to the SMEs. It is envisaged that the provision of quality advisory support can be used to supplement the financial services of DFIs, in order to enhance their effectiveness in supporting the development of the SMEs. In addition, Bank Negara Malaysia has developed and distributed a set of micro finance manuals to DFIs engaging in the provision of micro finance, for use as reference to acquire the knowledge of micro finance principles and best practices. This is to ensure a sustainable provision of micro finance by these DFIs. Going forward, the role of DFIs would not diminish, but continue to remain important and relevant, providing greater complementary and developmental role in addressing the nation's development strategies.
The Bank also issued its own notes which, due to the implicit backing of the government, circulated as currency with the public. At this stage, the Bank was far from being the nationalised, policymaking body we know today. Rather, the Bank was a quasi-private bank conducting its business for quasicommercial ends. Other banks at the time were engaged in similar commercial pursuits, including often issuing their own notes. Except, of course, they lacked the government as guarantor. This made for a competitive, and at times rather antagonistic, relationship between the Bank and the commercial banks. This strained relationship lasted for the whole of the 18th and a good chunk of the 19th centuries. Was the Bank friend or foe, collaborator or competitor? The commercial banks did not know. And the Bank – private in name but public in finances – was itself in a state of mild schizophrenia. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  These psychological flaws were exposed in the middle of the 19th century. By then, the Bank had been granted monopoly rights to issue currency. Quite literally, this cut the commercial banks out of a lucrative money-making scheme. This did little to ease competitive tensions between the Bank and the banks. This tension bubbled over in the famous case of Overend and Gurney Bank. In the early part of the 19th century, Overend had grown rapidly to become the largest discount house in London.

Owing to financial stability in the banking sector, the key rate decrease has quickly and successfully translated into the easing of monetary conditions and supported the economy, 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  despite higher credit risks. Unlike the previous crisis periods, this year we have managed to prevent a contraction in lending. In addition to the key rate cuts, lending is also promoted by the regulatory easing and other measures implemented by the Bank of Russia. The preferential programmes launched by the Government are another important contributor to the easing of monetary conditions. In particular, preferential lending accounts for nearly one-fourth of new loans granted in recent months to small and medium-sized enterprises and about one-half of new mortgage loans. Nonetheless, the anti-crisis support measures implemented by the Government and the Bank of Russia will be gradually terminated. We also take into account that it is essential to maintain accommodative monetary conditions next year in order to stabilise inflation close to 4% over the forecast horizon. When making our decisions on the key rate, we also estimate how saving behaviour is adjusting to lower interest rates in the financial market. We are aware that in this case financial institutions, companies and households need time to adjust to the new conditions. This is especially relevant since the pandemic, declining incomes and higher uncertainty may dramatically alter consumption and saving models. Seeking higher returns, individuals are increasing demand for various instruments in the financial market.
Export companies are also facing a decline in demand, while the picture for companies producing for the domestic market is more mixed. In many companies, concern has been expressed about the sharp wage growth of recent years and attention is being increasingly focused on cost reductions. Companies are making less use of temporary labour, with man-hours being reduced more than the number of permanent employees. Some think than downsizing may be more in focus in the period ahead. In general, companies are uncertain about the next three-month period, but a majority expects conditions to stabilise. In my address here last year, one of the themes was the outlook for manufacturing industry. This year, I would like to look more closely at developments in private service industries. From 1991 to 2001, total employment increased by about 280 000. In the same period, employment rose by about 120 000 in the public sector and by 145 000 in private service industries.1 In manufacturing, employment increased by 40 000 up to 1998, then fell by 25 000. A total of about 900 000 were employed in private service industries in 2001, about three times as many as in manufacturing. The decline in manufacturing over the past four or five years is more than offset by the rise in employment in service industries and the public sector. In the years ahead, the planned use of petroleum revenues will increase demand for public and private services, at the cost of manufacturing employment.

The Government has indicated in the National Budget that monetary policy should be the first to react when the outlook for the economy changes. A situation may nevertheless arise in which an active use of fiscal policy is required, either because capacity utilisation is particularly low, or because pressures in the economy are very strong. Weak developments in the global economy over the last few years are reflected in equity prices. Prices on most stock exchanges have fallen considerably since the beginning of the year. Equity prices in the various countries have a tendency to shadow each other. The impact of the decline has been felt by many countries simultaneously. Developments this summer indicate that the international recovery may be weaker, and come later, than we had expected earlier this year. The global fall in equity prices has also spread to the Norwegian stockmarket. There is a close relationship between equity prices in the US and in Norway. A sharp fall in share prices may also have a dampening impact on activity in the Norwegian economy, even if the effects are considerably milder here. The wealth of households that own shares will diminish, and they will reduce their consumption. It will also be less attractive to invest in new production capacity. Share price movements may also have a negative impact on business and household expectations. Registered unemployment has edged up over the past year, to 3.3 per cent in October (seasonally adjusted 3.5 per cent).
Subsequent to the FOMC’s decision, a compromise was reached on extending the Bush tax rates in conjunction with additional fiscal stimulus measures for 2011. The flow of economic data as 2010 came to a close on balance indicated that the economy was in fact regaining its lost momentum. Economists began to mark up their forecasts for 2011 economic growth. This recent improvement in the economic outlook is welcomed news. We should keep in mind, though, that there is considerable uncertainty associated with every economic forecast. There are both upside and downside risks that could cause actual economic growth this year to deviate from the consensus forecast. One important downside risk to the outlook is associated with housing markets. Following the end of the homebuyer tax credits, there was a sharp drop-off in home sales. In addition, the firming of house prices noted earlier has given way to renewed house price declines in many markets (Chart 27). There still remains a significant excess supply of housing that will exert downward pressure on house prices and new construction (Chart 28). Given the very low level of new home construction, the primary driver of this excess supply of housing is the on-going foreclosure process. The foreclosure pipeline continues to grow (Chart 29). How far along are we at resolving the foreclosure  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  problem?

Clearly the credit-to-GDP ratio cannot grow indefinitely because otherwise the cost of servicing the debt would end up exhausting the whole of GDP. In other words: What we observe here cannot be the manifestation of a secular trend! As we  1  Since 2000, average growth rates of real supply prices for single-family houses and owner-occupied apartments come to 2.5% and 3.7%, respectively (annual growth rates based on quarterly data provided by Wüest&Partner). 2  Borio, C. (2012); see also Schularick, M. and Taylor, A. (2012)  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  will see, making sense of this development is less trivial. To get a broader perspective on this question let us enlarge the picture shown in Figure 2b. Figure 3 provides the international dimension. As is clearly visible, there has been a substantial built-up of credit relative to GDP on a global scale over the last decades. There are some notable differences in the size, timing and scope of this development between individual countries but the general direction is the same. Ominously the upward trend was particularly steep in the run-up to the recent financial crisis in those countries that were subsequently most heavily affected (US, Ireland, Spain, UK). Figure 4 looks at the Swiss data from an earlier starting point.
We think, however, that such fears of procyclicality are exaggerated and are more than matched by the other benefits from the new regime - in particular, the reduced opportunities for regulatory arbitrage and the incentives given to banks to strengthen their risk management. Moreover, a number of factors seem likely to mute the impact of the new proposals on the cycle. First, many banks have a buffer of capital well above the regulatory minimum. Second, in a recession, demand for bank credit may anyway fall. Third, to the extent that banks (and ratings agencies) assign assets to risk categories in a forward looking manner, it should be possible to avoid wholesale reclassifications to lower credit-risk categories during cyclical downturns, particularly those of normal amplitude. Conclusion The new Accord will make a significant contribution to strengthening the international system. But even under the current Accord, banks should find themselves better placed than in the past to deal with any sudden downturn. A soft landing for the US still seems the most likely outcome but the system is in far better shape now than a decade ago to absorb, if necessary, a somewhat harder bump. I am not complacent and you can rely on the Bank of England to remain vigilant, whatever the outcome. 4  BIS Review 4/2001

This will help banks to identify fraud related accounts earlier – sleeper accounts before they are activated for example, and in doing so reduce the potential harm to victims. And thirdly, we are today 4/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  issuing guidance based on some of the good practices developed by our FMLIT banks, particularly with regard to how they integrate external information, data and alerts into their AML/CFT systems, and the use of data analytics tools more widely and other Regtech applications to produce better, more targeted outcomes. There has never been a clearer understanding of the overall objective across the public and private sectors to – improve the quality of data and intelligence going into the AML/CFT eco-system to drive better results – and the role of information sharing in achieving that. Conclusion 32. The priorities that I just highlighted – to be more adaptable in our implementation efforts, leveraging Regtech adoption, and the need to push further on information sharing – are intended to be a starting point to stimulate discussions over the coming two days. 33. And just as we at the HKMA, as a regulator, strive to make our regime increasingly focused on outcomes and effectiveness, I want to encourage all of you, whatever your sector or role in AML/CFT, to work with us in transforming our collective approach.
Measured in real terms, its current value does not seem to be an outlier either (Figure 7). 5  Figure 7 MSCI: Latin America  Real IPSA  (fixed-base index: January 2013=100)  (fixed-base index: January 2001=100)  120  Colombia  Peru  30 13  14  15  350  90  250  250  60  150  150  30  50  Brazil  90  60  350  120 Mexico  Latin Chile America  16  50 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17  17  Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Bloomberg. 13. The prolonged strike at La Escondida, the world´s largest open-pit copper mine, will have a very important effect on the first quarter GDP figures. It already did in the Imacec of February, which showed a yoy contraction of 1.3%, with a fall of 17.1% of its mining component. Since the strike ended in late March and resumption of production is not immediate, figures for that month will also be affected. Adding up the continued weakness in construction, the economy could experience an expansion close to 0% in the first quarter of the year. However, one should not forget that the strike at La Escondida, while very relevant to explain the first quarter figure, is a one-off event that is not expected to generate significant spillovers on activity elsewhere in the economy, nor on inflation. 14.

First, a number of European politicians are calling for increased transparency requirements relating to actual portfolio positions of SWFs. 19 A more far-reaching development are the calls for legislation that would block SWFs from taking major stakes in companies in any strategic sectors. 20 Second, a number of politicians have proposed the principle of reciprocity as a guiding principle for granting market access to SWFs. 21 For example, Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg Prime Minister and Euro-group president, has stated, "Countries that protect their own markets cannot expect to be allowed to make unimpeded investments in Europe." 22 In a strict sense, the principle of reciprocity means that SWFs are only allowed to invest in a foreign country if companies in that country are allowed to invest freely in the home country of the SWF. Since many SWFs are located in countries which are financially less open than a typical OECD country, a strict application of the reciprocity principle would place strong limitations on SWF investments. Third, Larry Summers has suggested that if SWFs were to invest through intermediary asset managers, most risks associated with SWFs would be mitigated, if not avoided. 23 Incidentally, Summers argues that the added benefit of such an indirect investment philosophy is that it generates a better risk-return profile. Fourth, there is now considerable political momentum behind the idea of a code of conduct or a set of guidelines for SWFs.
The committee held its first meeting under the new setup and commenced work. The key agenda items of the Food 9 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  Committee include establishing an early warning system to facilitate close monitoring of supply and demand developments in food products and taking timely actions; enforcing foreign trade mechanisms when necessary also taking account of the sectoral balances; introducing arrangements to improve competition conditions in the wholesale and retail food market; taking logistic measures to diminish losses and developing efficient agricultural financing models. Actions taken by the Food Committee set an invaluable precedent for the joint effort of institutions to achieve long-lasting price stability in Turkey. However, I would also like to underline that food is only one of the structural factors that slow down the disinflation process. We will soon announce our work on other structural issues that cause persistence in inflation. Esteemed Guests, While concluding my remarks, I would like to thank all my colleagues who contributed to the Report, primarily those at the Research and Monetary Policy Department as well as the members of the Monetary Policy Committee. I also thank every one of you for your participation and patience. 10 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches

Energy price inflation will also be considerable lower ahead. In August, the enterprises in Norges Bank’s regional network noted that there had been a shift in sentiment in the Norwegian economy. An extra round of calls to some contacts in October indicated that the outlook had worsened since August. The latest reports from enterprises in Region East indicate that demand has declined since summer, with a further drop in September and October. Customers are responding to tighter lending conditions by postponing projects. The changes have occurred rapidly, and there is now considerable uncertainty among our contacts in this region with regard to developments over the next six months. The majority of the enterprises report that they will reduce investment. Many are considering workforce reductions as an alternative if the situation does not change in the New Year. The majority also envisage lower wage and price inflation ahead. In the past year, unemployment has been as low as in the mid-1980s. Seasonally adjusted registered unemployment was 1.8 per cent in October. The enterprises in Norges Bank’s regional network are expecting some reduction in the workforce ahead. There has been a slight increase in layoffs. Going forward, enterprises will probably adjust the workforce to lower output growth and reduce the use of overtime. After a long period of high housing investment and rising prices, activity in the housing market is now slowing. Tighter credit conditions are amplifying the fall in house prices.
This is not surprising given the fact that the level of prosperity in Switzerland is still high and that we are not in an acute crisis situation. I am confident that the reform process will accelerate in the next few years, with the European domestic market and globalisation being important driving forces. In order to remain competitive and attractive as a production centre, Switzerland will have to break new ground in many areas. The National Bank is also confronted with some challenges. One change, which initially caused us considerable concern, has turned out to be a big advantage: the creation of the European currency area. Prior to the launch of the euro, there was a great deal of concern at the SNB. We could not exclude the possibility that the euro would destabilise the franc, that it would replace it as a means of payment, and that the expectation of the Swiss franc being pegged to the euro would mean a convergence of the lower domestic interest rate level with the higher interest level in the euro area. None of these scenarios have become a reality. On the contrary - the euro stabilised the exchange rates to a degree that we would not have thought possible ten years ago. The franc continues to be the means of payment in Switzerland, and the usual interest rate differential vis-à-vis the euro area remained.

Further, I call upon all banks to partner with the Government in alleviating the suffering of our people by contributing to the development of our nation. After all a growing and more developed economy will contribute more to the banking sector and therefore increase more profits. Banks need to seriously engage in activities that will contribute to the environment in which they are benefiting. This can be achieved in many ways including; •  By making available more loans that will increase the productivity of our economy;  •  By encouraging more Zambians to open bank accounts through provision of easily accessible and affordable products and services;  •  By providing products and services that suit the needs of the various customers across the country and not only those that suit people in Lusaka;  •  By opening more branches across the country; and  •  By installing more ATMs  All this, Ladies and Gentlemen, will greatly contribute to the emergence of a middle class in Zambia, which will bring real economic development and lead to poverty reduction. I am pleased to note that despite the recent challenges facing the financial sectors in the world, Standard Chartered Bank’s commitment to growth and re-investment is unwavering. The bank continues to be adequately capitalised with its total assets accounting for 14.4% of the banking sector’s total assets while its deposit base remained strong at 16.3% of the total industry deposits.