samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
On the international front, global and European GDP growth forecasts have been revised downwards in recent months. To mention what appear to have been the most important factors, this has been due to the decline in activity in some of the main emerging economies and to the sluggishness of world trade. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  As a result, for this year and for next year too, we should expect more moderate growth in the Spanish economy than in 2015. Indeed, the latest projections published by the Banco de España and by various analysts and international institutions are along these lines, with GDP growth rates of 2.7% in 2016 and 2.3% in 2017. This lower growth will come about when we are still far from having sufficiently corrected the serious imbalances that built up in the expansion and in the early years of the crisis. These may be listed under four headings: the labour market; fiscal consolidation and public debt; private debt and dependence on external funding; and productivity. Let us look more closely at each of these four aspects. 1. The reduction in unemployment  Firstly, unemployment. The main challenge facing the Spanish economy is to reduce the unemployment rate, which stood at the end of last year at almost 21%, 6 pp down from its peak at the start of 2013, but still far above the average for the European Union and the level in almost every other euro area country.

These developments took place against the background of the normalisation of financial conditions. Contributing to this process were the domestic reforms applied and the ECB’s monetary policy measures, together with progress in EMU governance arrangements. In the case of monetary policy, the ECB’s deployment of a raft of non-standard measures favourably impacted financing conditions, reducing financial fragmentation in the euro area and prompting a pick-up in bank lending. In turn, on the back of expectations of a recovery in the US economy, the euro area monetary policy enabled a substantial depreciation of the euro in the first half of 2015, which helped European – and Spanish – exporters to increase their relative weight in international markets. Adding to these factors underpinning the recovery in activity and employment were the marked decline in oil prices and fiscal policy, which joined monetary policy in its expansionary stance, in contrast to its restrictiveness in previous years. Our recovery can hardly continue to be based, to the same extent as in 2015, on these expansionary factors. The mix of stimuli, both from demand-side policies (monetary policy and fiscal policy) and from the fall in oil prices since 2014, is going to have less of an impact on growth. Fiscal policy will have to be restrictive again until the process of fiscal consolidation is complete. And, as to the exchange rate of the euro, the most prudent assumption would be that it will not be a significant additional stimulus but rather approximately neutral, at least during 2016.
On behalf of Bank Negara Malaysia, let me take this opportunity to express our thanks to the OECD and INFE, and the moderators, speakers and discussants in making this event a success. I would also like to thank all delegates for your active participation throughout this symposium. I hope you have gained valuable insights for charting your own national strategies for financial education. Enjoy the rest of your stay in Malaysia, and we look to the opportunity to welcome you back in the future. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches

To most people, $ million may sound like a lot, but given that $ trillion of financial contracts reference U.S. dollar LIBOR, it’s really a drop in the ocean.1 As a result, submissions are largely based on judgment, as opposed to real numbers. When the LIBOR scandal erupted, it became clear that there had been fraud and collusion, both within and across financial services firms, in the pursuit of profit. The reliance on expert judgment, rather than actual data, makes the rate too vulnerable to manipulation. It’s readily apparent to all those in the industry—both firms and regulators—that LIBOR is fundamentally broken. Consequently, banks are increasingly reluctant to provide LIBOR submissions, adding to the level of risk around using the rate. The U.K. Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has reached an agreement with banks to keep submitting rates through the end of 2021, but in 2022 the existence of LIBOR will no longer be guaranteed. In other words, LIBOR’s survival is assured for only another 901 days. Those in the market know the full scale of the risks this creates for the financial system. LIBOR isn’t just the rate that banks use to borrow from one another—it’s also the underlying rate on numerous derivatives and loan contracts. The $ trillion figure I mentioned earlier is the approximate total exposure to U.S. dollar LIBOR. That’s about 10 times U.S. gross domestic product.
Percentage of those born in Sweden and those born abroad in the labour force, aged 15-74 years. Sources: Eurostat and Statistics Sweden (AKU)  Increased migration in Sweden and abroad During the latter part of the 19th century there was widespread emigration from Sweden to the United States in particular. Around 1.2 million Swedes emigrated to the United States between 1851 and 1930, which at that time was around one fifth of the population. The reasons were in many cases financial, but religious freedom and increased equality were also attractive. There were several factors that enabled emigration. The emergence of the steam ship was one factor. Liberal ideas on economics, politics and freedom – which made a breakthrough around Europe in the 19th century – were other factors. At the beginning of the 20th century, Sweden was an established “emigration country” with more emigrants than immigrants, see Figure 9. This was primarily due to the large-scale emigration, but we also had very few immigrants. In the year 1900 the percentage of people born abroad in relation to the population as a whole was just 0.7 per cent, with most of them coming from other Nordic countries. An interesting fact here is that the immigrants from outside of Europe comprised 90 people from South America, 79 from Africa (56 of whom were from  13 [24]  South Africa) and 87 from Asia.

But the relevant perspective is that of co-operation and not of “autonomous” infighting between the representatives of free enterprise and those of Hobbess Leviathan-type of government. Against this background let me take a bird’s eye view of some challenges that regulatory and oversight authorities should tackle to facilitate initiatives to resolve the identified issues. A first challenge is the need for a common approach of the regulatory and oversight authorities. This need arises from several factors. For instance, clearing and settlement of securities transactions occur in different institutions located in different jurisdictions. The whole infrastructure underlying these transactions has reached a global dimension. Over the past decades cross-border infrastructures have deployed their activities essentially as a complement to domestic systems, but I expect them start playing a more powerful role at a domestic level as well. The common approach to regulate and oversee cross-border securities clearing and settlement systems, which I have referred to previously, is being worked on. The various standards and recommendations that have been issued recently is proof this. Some may set the accent on the divergences, misinterpretations or on the incompleteness of these standards and recommendations. I do not refute them but I also see the value added of sharing the same language to tackle complex issues. Regulatory and overseers tend to adopt a pragmatic approach where one authority takes on a leadership role and consults with other relevant authorities.
In addition, Estonia has no problems with financing its external  2  BIS Review 91/2009  debt. Companies and people in Estonia have taken serious steps to pave way for getting through the global crisis and recovering growth. Therefore, the state needs to implement some important macro-level objectives to support the recovery of economic growth. Here I mean, above all, the readiness to join the euro area as well as medium-term and long-term stability of fiscal policy. In the current situation, accession to the euro area is Estonia's utmost short-term objective. The adoption of the euro will ensure the stability of the money used in Estonia and is extremely important for further reinforcement of the banking system and the investment climate. It can be said the clear perspective of joining the euro area is an absolutely necessary precondition at the national economy level for the permanent recovery of growth. Declining inflation has created all the possibilities in Estonia to meet the Maastricht criteria by end-2009, which makes it possible to join the euro area on 1 January 2011 at the latest. In this context and from the point of view of monetary and financial system stability, fiscal policy has two tasks in 2009. First of all it must be made sure that the current account deficit, which cannot be avoided in the prevailing economic environment, remains below 3% of GDP both this year and in 2010.

The Federal Government and the central bank of the USA have channelled funds worth over 787 billion dollars into banking and the private sector. In the European Union, the fiscal stimulus amounts to 1.8% of GDP and to 225 billion euro. Banks have received direct support and state guarantees in the amount of 393 billion euro. Such massive intervention has put brakes on the rate of recession. The past couple of months' stabilisation in the global economy has come at a high price. Major economies face rapidly expanded fiscal deficits and central banks' balance sheets and total volume of base money have promptly increased. Therefore it cannot be said for sure whether the current "green shoots" refer to a new growth cycle. Only structural reforms and maintaining confidence in fiscal and monetary policy can help the economy out of the crisis on a more permanent basis. When speaking about this year's forecasts, the EU economy as a whole is expected to undergo a 4% recession. Small economies which are more dependent on exports and international capital flows suffer from the crisis disproportionally more. Sweden and Finland, our close neighbours, can expect a recession of up to 4.7%. As we know, the global financial crisis and the collapse of markets caused serious difficulties to several new Member States.
In November of 2013, the Bank outlined proposed regulatory reforms for the financial advisory industry which formed part of the “Life Insurance and Family Takaful Framework” or in short the LIFE Framework, which we published for consultation. An important aim of the reforms is to support the Bank’s desire to further diversify insurance delivery channels as one – although not the only – way to improve the quality of advice, and enhance choice and value for consumers based on their specific needs and circumstances. This in turn would contribute towards increasing the insurance and takaful penetration rate to 75 percent by 2020 as targeted under the Government’s Economic Transformation Programme (ETP). We received positive feedback from the financial advisory industry on the proposed reforms and while specific elements of the LIFE Framework remain under review to take into account the comments that were received, we have moved ahead to implement several changes proposed which concern the financial advisory industry. The Bank has lowered the minimum capital requirement for financial advisers to RM50,000 which will take effect from 1 January 2015 to encourage more advisers to enter the industry. This follows an increased focus on professionalism, innovation and quality of advice as the hallmark of those who are admitted to the industry.

Half of the respondents surveyed were not aware of the PDS while the majority of those that are aware claimed that they were given the PDS only after they had already decided to enter into a financial contract. Many of them were not informed of its purpose. The study also revealed a bias towards highlighting the benefits of a product in explanations given by sales agents or  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  advisers on the product, while risks and costs were not adequately explained. It should therefore not be surprising that 75% of respondents make financial decisions without adequately considering risk factors associated with a financial product, while almost half did not understand the costs involved. These findings are obviously a concern to the Bank as they undermine informed judgments by financial consumers. I raise these observations today because financial advisers clearly have a key role in addressing these concerns. Indeed, you have a professional obligation to your clients to present clear, unbiased and objective information to help your clients make informed decisions. The Bank intends to address these issues aggressively, through regulatory improvements, education, more intensive reviews of sales practices and continued enforcement actions. With effect from the second half of 2015, financial advisers and insurance and takaful brokers will also be brought within the scope of the Financial Ombudsman Scheme that will be approved under the Financial Services Act, providing an avenue for consumers to address complaints against advisers for non-disclosures or misrepresentations.
The global expansion has also resulted in high prices for many Norwegian export goods. The increase in oil prices over the past 4-5 years has been very important. High oil prices over a longer period have  BIS Review 28/2007  3  boosted oil investments and there are prospects that the high investment level will be sustained in the coming years. Oil prices peaked around USD 75 per barrel in summer 2006. Later in autumn, prices fell. Current futures prices indicate that market participants believe prices will remain above USD 60 per barrel in the coming years. A fall in prices in a number of commodity markets at the beginning of 2007 raised the question of whether the pronounced price rise of recent years was being reversed. The experience of previous commodity price cycles indicates that rising prices gradually lead to increased supply and reduced demand. This in turn leads to a fall in prices. Following a long period of expansion, international financial markets were marked by unrest around the end of February. It is still too early to say whether the turbulence signals a weakening of global growth prospects. Increased integration of China, India and other emerging economies into world trade, in conjunction with lower tariffs and reduced trade barriers, has led to a decline in prices for imported finished goods. This effect has been strengthened by a significant increase in the share of imports from low-cost countries.

Real house prices have almost trebled. The rise in house prices has been considerably stronger than earlier and has spanned a long period. With the exception of a few months in 2003, house prices have risen continuously since 1992. This is the second longest period of rising real prices since 1819. Statistics for earlier years do not exist. 8  BIS Review 28/2007  Norway is not the only country where house prices have shown a strong rise over a long period. House price inflation has been particularly high in Ireland and the Netherlands, but Denmark, the UK and Spain also stand out. The countries where house price inflation has been high are the same countries where economic growth has been strongest. Since prices are rising in tandem in many countries, it is natural to look for common driving forces. With increasing cross-border flows of intermediate goods, capital and increasingly so labour, prices will largely reflect growth and competition in the global economy. If capital or labour becomes too expensive in one country, businesses can relocate production. Prices for fixed factors of production, such as property, will on the other hand reflect income developments in different countries. Consequently, the rise in property prices will tend to be highest in those countries where income growth is highest. BIS Review 28/2007  9  External and domestic interest rates are low in an environment of solid growth. Long-term interest rates have fallen sharply both in nominal and real terms since the beginning of the 1990s.
But again, although coins were the everyday means of exchange, transferable private sector claims, in the forms of banknotes and ‘bills of exchange’, were still significant in trade and commerce. This is not just ancient history. We have seen a big change in my lifetime. When I was at school, admittedly a very long time ago, physical cash – banknotes and coins – played a far larger role in our lives. Far fewer people had bank accounts. In the mid-1960s, most workers were paid weekly in cash, and around 70% of the population did not have a bank account.3 Consequently, for every £ of funds that people held to make payments, over a third would be held as cash. Nowadays, less than 5% is held as cash. [See Chart 1] Today, around 98% of households have access to bank accounts. And credit and debit cards have made it much easier to use our bank accounts for everyday transactions – in other words the transfer of claims on the banks in which we hold our money. That shift from physical cash to electronic transaction has not only been a shift from paper to electronic form. It has also been a shift from using a form of money issued as a direct claim on the state – the seemingly archaic but very real promise on our banknotes - to money created and issued by commercial banks as a claim on themselves.

While the technology has changed beyond all recognition, all of these systems are economically the equivalent of 18th century bank clerks with quill pens altering their banks’ ledgers to debit one account and credit another whilst addressing shortcomings. Some of the most high-profile of these have been so-called ‘stablecoins’. Unlike Bitcoin, these aim to ensure a stable value for the digital coin via some form of link to or backing by a stable financial asset such as Government bonds. They use technology platforms, such as blockchain, across which transactions in these new digital coins can be exchanged. Stablecoin developers have claimed a number of benefits that such schemes could bring, including very large reductions in the costs of payments, especially cross border (due in part to the much shorter chains of payment actions and smaller number of actors), greater financial inclusion through easier and cheaper access to payment services for the ‘unbanked’, and better functionality. These proposals have, to be fair, shone a light on some of the failures and costs of the current domestic systems, for all the improvements we have seen. And this is particularly true for cross border payments: retail cross-border payment systems are relatively slow, expensive and unreliable and many do not have access to them. Facebook’s Libra proposal is one high-profile example of a stablecoin proposal that claim such benefits.
Table 1 Domestic scenario (annual change, percent)  2013  2014  2015 (f) Jun.15 MP Report  Sep.15 MP Report  Dec.15 MP Report  2016 (f) Sep.15 MP Report  2016 (f) Dec.15 MP Report 2,0-3,0  GDP  4.2  1.9  2,25-3,25  2,0-2,5  2.1  2,5-3,5  Domestic demand  3.7  -0.6  2.6  2.0  2.3  3.1  2.6  Domestic demand (w/o inventory change)  4.6  0.5  2.2  1.4  2.0  3.0  2.5  Gross fixed capital formation  2.1  -6.1  0.7  -1.2  0.7  1.9  1.7  Total consumption  5.5  2.5  2.7  2.1  2.4  3.3  2.7  Goods and services exports  3.4  0.7  1.3  -1.7  -1.7  1.2  1.0  Goods and services imports  1.7  -7.0  1.1  -2.3  -1.4  2.2  1.6  Current account (% of GDP)  -3.7  -1.2  -0.4  -0.7  -1.7  -1.5  -2.6  Gross national savings (% of GDP)  20.6  20.3  21.0  20.8  20.0  20.0  19.1  Nominal gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)  23.8  22.0  21.6  21.5  22.0  21.5  21.9  (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

The Open Banking standard and PSD2  11  introduce changes to access of account  information and initiation of payments, requiring banks to make customer data available to authorised third parties if customers so choose. This may change the way that customers access and operate their bank 12  accounts, such as by making them accessible via a single smartphone app developed by a third party . As the prudential regulator of UK financial services firms, the Bank of England needs to be open in how it considers and responds to changes arising in retail banking from this reform. In fact, increasing competitive pressures in retail banking, enabled in part by an increase in the use of fintech, formed part of the biennial 13  exploratory scenario in our 2017 stress test . As well as looking at these infrastructure changes impacting the firms we regulate, we are also opening ourselves to change by experimenting with new technologies when we think about enhancing how we work – including for the infrastructure we are responsible for. 10  Hauser, A (2017) Europe’s second Payment Services Directive Cunliffe, J (2018) 13 Bank of England (2017a) 11 12  4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  14  The Bank of England is currently investing in its RTGS service , a critical piece of national infrastructure, renewing the heart of the UK’s overall payment system to meet the challenges posed by a rapidly changing landscape.