samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
At the top of my list of explanations is the nature of the shocks that struck in autumn 2008. The damage caused by the failure of the Icelandic banks affected many more countries than Iceland alone. The economic adjustment was unavoidable, as I mentioned, and the contraction was most pronounced in bloated sectors, while a large share of other business activities retained their strength, conventional export sectors in particular. Second on my list is the way in which the measures taken when the banks collapsed contained the damage and kept the cost of the failed private banks from landing too heavily on the general public. Third is the economic programme of the Icelandic authorities with the IMF, and the economic policy pursued thereafter. All three of the key objectives of the IMF programme were achieved. Fourth is our success in lifting the capital controls without balance of payments disequilibrium and while preserving financial stability. Fifth is the integration of the domestic economy with trading partner countries, particularly through the EEA Agreement. This made it easier to cushion the blow by exporting labour and other production factors and then importing when demand pressures were about to become too strong. Sixth is just good luck, pure and simple, which is one of the factors underlying the tourism boom and the improvement in terms of trade in recent years. 3  On the whole, things have gone well, although naturally, it was not all successes.

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This assessment of low inflationary risks is also supported by the declining trend in the growth rate of loans to the private sector. However, a continuation of strong M3 growth could call for a reassessment of monetary developments, especially if there is further evidence of a recovery in the euro area economy. BIS Review 9/2002  1  Regarding the second pillar, while actual euro area production growth in the fourth quarter of last year and in the early part of this year is still expected to be subdued, new data confirm our expectation of a gradual improvement in economic activity in the course of the year. Uncertainty as regards the global environment seems to be gradually decreasing. In the euro area, the economic fundamentals remain sound and financing conditions favourable. Together with higher growth in real income, stemming from the past and future declines in inflation, these factors should support overall demand. This assessment appears to be reflected both in recent improvements in survey data and in financial market developments. Although the timing and strength of the upturn remain uncertain, the overall evidence points to a resumption of economic growth. We also continue to expect no medium-term upward pressures on inflation. However, as already indicated on several occasions, annual inflation rates at the beginning of this year will be somewhat erratic. Preliminary HICP data for January 2002 confirm this expectation but should not give rise to concerns as regards the medium term.

The behaviour of wage costs and the high margins seen in certain activities tend, moreover, to make the inflationary episode more persistent, with the adverse consequences this may have for price and cost-formation habits and for the trend of the relative prices and costs that bear on the economy's competitiveness. It is therefore very important not to lose sight of the fact that the main instrument available in the current circumstances is that of making structural reforms that enhance the economy’s flexibility, liberalise certain sectors and markets, and increase competition. Despite the efforts made in recent decades, there are still numerous areas of the Spanish economy that need reforms. I do not intend to address these in detail, but I shall refer briefly to those spheres where I consider pressing action is needed. And I should stress that it is here where the potential room for manoeuvre to counter weakening growth in the euro area is to be found. 6  BIS Review 122/2008  In the labour market, it is imperative to bring about a milder reduction in employment in cyclical slowdowns. In this connection, we must explore channels which provide a response by wages to changes in the economic environment, aligning them to productivity gains, and avoiding upward inertia in the face of external shocks introduced by mechanisms such as wage indexation clauses.
This all means that after the rebound of the economy completes, it will develop more smoothly, at a more gradual pace, as compared to the recovery growth of output observed over the last 12 months. In a situation when companies experience a shortage of workers or components, monetary policy measures promoting demand will not increase output or consumption. For instance, if the demand for cars rises even more, this will not boost their output, when there are no parts, but will only increase the queues for them and speed up price growth. 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  As regards inflation, it is above the forecast rate, and inflation expectations remain high. In August, annual inflation was 6.7%. According to the steady indicators of inflation measuring the inflation rate without volatile components, inflationary pressure continued to considerably exceed our target in both August and early September. Indeed, inflation is impacted by multiple factors that do not depend on our monetary policy. The most important of them are world commodity prices, the country’s fruit and vegetable harvest, and bottlenecks in global supply chains (container shipments, microcircuit manufacture, etc.). It has been stated recently that these factors should be completely ignored if monetary policy cannot influence them. This opinion leaves out one essential circumstance, namely, the fact that all these factors impact inflation expectations which, in turn, influence consumers’ sentiment and behaviour. Hence, they drive inflation across a wide range of products.

As the economy continues to adjust to these changes, the situation is still uneven across different sectors. In addition to the above-mentioned oil industry, passenger transportation and international travel still remain below pre-pandemic levels as well. When restrictions were toughened, public catering and entertainment companies faced a decline in the demand for their services. Nonetheless, a lot of industries are demonstrating steadily higher output and sales than before the outbreak of the pandemic. Specifically, there has been a surge in the demand for durable goods (computers, telecommunication devices, and household appliances) and online trade and delivery services. The lockdown period boosted the demand for countryside housing and better housing conditions in general. These uneven trends across both industries and regions are also described in the Regional Economy report released by our regional branches before the quiet period. The situation in the labour market also evidences that the economy has not only recovered, but is generally returning to its pre-pandemic growth path. The number of vacant jobs is at its peaks. High demand for labour resources is demonstrated by companies in construction and transport, a whole range of manufacturing enterprises, and in trade. These are the industries that started to bounce back earlier and were recovering faster and where demand exceeds prepandemic levels. A further expansion of output is possible through a restoration of the inflow of labour migrants, but — first of all — through an increase in labour productivity.
And although it may seem that all is ‘back to normal’ and we should move on, I think the March episode raises two important and perhaps uncomfortable broad questions – questions to which we will need to return. First, do we need more resilience, particularly liquidity resilience, in the non-bank parts of the financial system? We have, as I have set out, made the banking system much more resilient to severe, unanticipated shocks. The banking system, admittedly, plays a core role in our economies. What would be the costs and benefits of greater resilience in market based finance – which now accounts for around half of the global financial system? And second, if central banks have to backstop liquidity in financial markets – as they do for solvent banks – how should that be organised and what should be the consequences for the private sector? These are questions I believe the central bank and regulatory community will need to address. It is too early for answers to these questions. And I expect new issues will arise as we progress through this crisis. But we should not lose the insights that the last few months have given us already about how the system functions under stress.

The programme also included placing dustbins along the pavements and ensuring that the street lights were repaired and lit. It is highly gratifying to see how much work has been accomplished and I am sure that the results are clear for all of us to see today. This initiative, Ladies and Gentlemen, is one sure way of inculcating and promoting a culture of cleanliness amongst our people. It is also an effective way of expressing our Corporate Social Responsibility. Beautiful and clean surroundings also go a long way in complementing Government’s efforts of developing tourism. In fact another dimension of the initiative required that all banks including the BoZ maintain and keep their offices and surroundings clean at all times. In this regard, we at the Bank of Zambia have introduced regular inspections of offices while ensuring that all staff are aware of their responsibilities towards the clean campaign. Furthermore, by keeping their premises or business environment clean, banks provide the satisfaction that customer need. You would all agree with me that a business done in a clean environment leave the customer totally relaxed and in good spirit, prompting another visit in future. Ladies and Gentlemen, in line with “Goal 8” of the Millennium Development Goals on “Environmental Sustainability”, we are all expected to work together and reverse the losses of environmental resources. I am glad to report that the financial sector has taken the bold step and has become one of, if not the first, to contribute positively towards achieving this goal.
Norges Bank’s district branches lost their right to set the interest rate in their own district – Norway became one interest rate kingdom. And the stock of gold would no longer set an absolute limit on the supply of banknotes. A formal obstacle to the Bank’s provision of emergency liquidity to private banks in a crisis had been removed – and, as it turned out, the need for emergency liquidity would soon arise. A more complex banking system with a growing number of links to the international financial system had set the stage for financial turbulence. Just before the turn of the century, a speculative economy had developed in Christiania. Property prices soared and newly established banks willingly provided loans – often based on short-term foreign credit. The ensuing crash was to claim many victims. One day in June 1899, a delegation from one of the banks, Discontobanken, marched into Norges Bank with some very bad news: one of the country’s largest companies could not meet its payment obligations and Discontobanken was on the verge of collapse. If the bank fell, panic could ensue, triggering a domino effect in the banking system. Norges Bank, under the leadership of Governor Bomhoff, took immediate action to provide liquidity support. Credit was injected into the economy. Norges Bank soon had to take on the additional task of resolving speculative banks while at the same time protecting healthy banks from being caught in the undertow. Norges Bank was later praised for its approach.

Ardian Fullani: Overview of Albania’s latest monetary and economic developments and outlook Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, on the Monetary Policy Decision of the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council, Tirana, 30 May 2014. *  *  *  Today, on 30 May 2014, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania reviewed and approved the monthly Monetary Policy Report. After discussing the recent economic and monetary developments and their outlook, the Supervisory Council decided to lower the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage point, to 2.50%. The key rate decrease aims at creating more favourable conditions for inflation to return to our target in the medium term. The decision reflects our assessment and projections for low inflationary pressures in the quarters ahead, in response to the weak aggregate demand and the downward trend of inflation in Albania’s trading partners. This move contributes to boosting domestic consumption and investments, aiming at a fuller utilization of production capacities and a faster return of inflation to our target. (Let me now proceed with an overview of economic developments and key issues that were discussed at today’s meeting.) *** Annual inflation rate was 1.7% in April, slightly down from the average rate recorded in the first quarter of 2014. In the last months, the dynamics of inflation have been largely determined by the performance of food prices.
13 While monetary and financial stability policies are often seen as the fulcrum of central banks, they do not fully define their responsibilities. A survey by the Bank of International Settlements identified a further 16 responsibilities undertaken by at least some central banks (BIS, 2009). 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  accompaniment to increased central bank responsibilities and autonomy. With increased delegated powers came increased societal responsibilities to explain how those powers were being discharged. This shift in transparency practices took time. In 1981, Karl Brunner was still speaking about the “mystique” of central banking. 14  In the early 1990s, “mystique” was still the one-word advice offered by one prominent  central bank governor (Paul Volcker) to another (Mervyn King). 15  For most of their history, opacity has been  deeply ingrained in central banks’ psyche. And for much the greater part of its history, the Bank of England was at the forefront of that opacity agenda. For its first three centuries, the Bank appears to have kept its public utterances to a minimum. It was effectively mute. The prevailing ethos was well-captured by the job description provided to the official who became, in effect, the Bank’s first press officer: “keep the Bank out of the press and the press out of the Bank”. 16  The Bank was good to its word. During the period 1920 to 1945, the Bank’s communications strategy was far from expansive.

18  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  18  The Bank introduced last year “Knowledge Bank”. This is largely intended as an educational device, covering how the economy works and how central bank policies may be affecting it. It contains cartoons and videos as well as prose. It is targeted, explicitly, at younger age cohorts. Its reading score of 8 means it is capable of reaching almost half of the UK adult population. The Bank, in common with many other central banks, is making greater use of social media. As a two-way personalised, socialised, distributed communications medium, with high penetration among the young, it has real attractions. The Bank has a Twitter account with over 200,000 followers. Individuals do not have Twitter accounts and nor does the Bank have a cohort of Bloggers and Vloggers providing daily diaries of time spent at the central bank coalface. But it is early days. These are examples of layered and targeted content, the like of which a number of other central banks, including the Federal Reserve System, are investing. The Bank’s existing publications are now more flexible and layered in their length and content, potentially making them accessible to a wider audience (Chart 18). But this is clearly just the start. I shall resist the temptation to say it is going to be great. (b) Minding your Language  The changing nature of public language means central banks will need to adapt their own language to increase its penetration and reach with the general public.
However, in the case of the Riksbank, the differences between the minority and the majority have been so great and so persistent that it has become evident that they are not merely temporary differences in, for instance, the assessment of economic developments. It rather seems to be a case of more profound differences in the ways of regarding monetary policy and what it can achieve. This need not necessarily be a problem, either. But it does require, at least, that a thorough analysis is made of the differences and that one attempts to evaluate, as far as possible, both points of view. The arguments in favour of a higher policy rate So how has the policy conducted by the Riksbank in recent years been justified? Why hasn’t the Executive Board wanted to conduct the more expansionary policy advocated by the  1  See, for example, Calmfors (2012). BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  minority? Such a policy would have had better target attainment in terms of inflation and unemployment, with higher inflation closer to the target and lower unemployment closer to a long-run sustainable rate. My view is that the arguments have not been particularly clear, at least earlier on, and that the stated motives have varied.2 Recently, however, the arguments appear to have converged somewhat.

Lars E O Svensson: Monetary policy, debt and unemployment Speech by Prof Lars E O Svensson, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a meeting at SNS – Centre for Business and Policy Studies, Stockholm, 14 November 2012. *  *  *  I would like to thank Karolina Ekholm, Kerstin Hallsten, Per Jansson, Christina Nyman, Ulf Söderström and Anders Vredin for valuable discussions and comments. Mikael Apel, Gabriela Guibourg and Staffan Viotti have contributed to this speech. The views expressed are my own, and are not necessarily shared by the other members of the Executive Board or by other employees of the Riksbank. It can scarcely have escaped the attention of those who follow monetary policy in Sweden that the members of the Executive Board have held differing opinions for some time now. Most people have probably also noted that a minority of the Executive Board members – consisting of my colleague Karolina Ekholm and myself, in case anyone was not aware of this – has advocated a more expansionary monetary policy than the one that has been conducted and that the Riksbank intends to conduct in accordance with the repo-rate path advocated by the majority during the coming period. However, I am not as convinced that everyone has a clear idea of exactly what the differences of opinion entail.
Without investment, technology becomes gradually obsolete and, very importantly, the kind of shock that has hit the Chilean economy in recent years requires us to reallocate resources from sectors that were very attractive in the past to others that must now pull the growth wagon, especially non-traditional exports. But this reallocation, which according to our research is an important source of productivity growth, can only be achieved if at the same time there is investment in these new sectors. Thus, both factors are clearly related to each other. The question we must all ask ourselves is, if we have done enough to promote these factors. I believe that the productivity agenda that was agreed on by different agents is a good starting point that must be deepened and carried forward. But we must also bear in mind that the loss in confidence affecting the country today, beyond specific causes, puts a brake to investment. Remember, our baseline scenario assumes that confidence will recover. As for monetary policy, it has done its bit, interest rates are today among the lowest ever and will remain expansionary throughout the projection horizon. Monetary policy can help smooth the business cycle and that has been our task, successfully I may add. However, the sources of countries’ long-term growth are in other areas of the economy that are clearly beyond the reach of monetary policy. It is important for us to understand, agree on and implement whatever is needed to take the leap towards being a more just developed country.

The notable decline in nonperforming loans in the balance sheet of the banking system is the most prominent achievement 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  in this aspect. The measures taken in mid-2016 have produced a substantial effect, materialised in the reduction of non-performing loans by around 10 percentage points, below the maximum level registered in 2015. It is always a pleasure to note that credit growth has been positive. In particular, the lek credit has grown rapidly, compared to the foreign currency credit, which makes the banking system and the private sector healthier, and enhances the effectiveness of Bank of Albania’s monetary policy. Positive developments in the banking sector and the economy have supported the further improvement of capitalisation, liquidity and profitability indicators. Two months from the end of the year, in our assessment, the banking industry in Albania enjoys full financial soundness, against the backdrop of an optimal liquidity and capitalisation situation, a key prerequisite for financially supporting the economic developments of the country. We have also paid particular attention to legal, institutional, regulatory and supervisory developments, notably the drafting and implementation of the resolution law. Dear participants, This year marked 25 years from the establishment of a two-tier system in Albania, which stipulates the banking system as the provider of financial and banking services in the economy, and the central bank as the administrator of the monetary policy and regulator and supervisor of the banking system.