samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
You will find our detailed explanatory evaluations regarding the base effect and its effects on 2010 inflation outlook in a box under the third chapter of the Inflation Report to be posted on our website shortly. I strongly recommend that you read these evaluations carefully. The fact that inflation is expected to stay at elevated levels for some time due to tax adjustments and strong base effects highlights the importance of expectations management. In this respect, with the awareness of these temporary factors, it is critical that economic agents focus on the medium-term inflation trend, and therefore, take inflation targets as a benchmark for their pricing plans and contracts. I would like to emphasize once more that any new data or information regarding the inflation outlook may lead to a change in the monetary policy stance. Therefore, assumptions regarding future policy rates underlying the inflation forecast should not be perceived as a commitment on behalf of the CBT. 4. Risks  Distinguished Members of the Press, In the last part of my presentation, I would like to talk about the risks with respect to the inflation outlook in the upcoming period and provide some information pertaining to the probable monetary policy strategy should these risks materialize. The outlook for the domestic economy and the risks thereto has been largely shaped by global developments in line with the intensification of the global crisis as of the last quarter of 2008.

Assuming that the ample slack would continue to be a drag on investment and employment, recent signs of improvement in employment data is not expected to turn into a significant recovery, suggesting that the unemployment rate will likely remain elevated for an extended period. Therefore, unit labor costs and domestic demand would continue to support disinflation. Distinguished Guests, As I have mentioned earlier in my speech, the tightness in credit conditions have been moderating since the publication of the July Inflation Report, owing to the improvement in global liquidity conditions and risk perceptions. Easing financial conditions and declining loan rates have been strengthening the expansionary impact of monetary policy. The October Inflation Report had stated that the credit channel would begin to support domestic economic activity during the fourth quarter of the year. In fact, credit demand started to recover in this period, especially with commercial loans picking up significantly. However, the effectiveness of the credit channel in supporting economic activity is still partly restrained owing to the ongoing tightness in lending standards for small- and medium-sized enterprises. 12  BIS Review 31/2010  It is expected that the credit channel would continue to support domestic activity, and the impact of cumulative rate cuts would become more prevalent over the medium term. However, the rising domestic borrowing requirement of the public sector, ongoing problems in the global economy, and elevated levels of unemployment would continue to restrain credit expansion. Overall, recent data releases have shown that economic activity is on a gradual recovery path.
Turning to fiscal policies, the latest available information suggests that the pace of fiscal consolidation in many euro area countries remains unsatisfactory. It is of particular concern that targets for correcting excessive deficits are at risk in some cases. Moreover, countries that have recently breached the 3% deficit limit are being granted relatively long periods to correct the situation in what constitutes a very generous application of the reformed Stability and Growth Pact. Against this background, it is important to recall that the best contribution that fiscal policies can make to stability, growth and cohesion in the euro area is to effectively tackle existing fiscal imbalances as part of a determined and well-designed economic reform programme. In this context, a rigorous implementation of the new rules is needed. This would reinforce the credibility of the Stability and Growth Pact, boost expectations of sound fiscal policies and thereby help to increase confidence in economic growth prospects. As regards structural reforms, the European Commission has recently presented the “Community Lisbon Programme”, which contains a list of measures at the EU level to relaunch the Lisbon strategy. The ECB fully backs this initiative, in particular the measures to further open EU markets and to simplify the regulatory framework within which business operates. Progress at both the Community and the Member State level is crucial to addressing the economic challenges facing the EU.

More fundamentally, the main risks to the inflation outlook stem from potential second-round effects in wage and price-setting behaviour triggered by ongoing oil price rises. In this respect, it is essential that the social partners continue to meet their responsibilities. Against this background, we will continue to monitor inflation expectations very closely. Particular vigilance is required in order to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored in the euro area. Turning to the monetary analysis, money and credit have continued to grow robustly in the euro area over the last few months, mainly driven by the prevailing low level of interest rates. In particular, the growth of mortgage borrowing remains very strong. In this context, price dynamics in housing markets need to be monitored closely. The liquidity situation in the euro area remains ample by all plausible measures, indicating risks to price stability over medium to longer horizons. In conclusion, oil price developments have again led to upward revisions of inflation projections for the year ahead. At the same time, medium-term domestic inflationary pressures still remain contained, while the balance of risks to the baseline inflation scenario is tilted to the upside. Cross-checking the economic analysis with the monetary analysis confirms the need for particular vigilance in order to keep medium-term inflation expectations firmly anchored at levels consistent with price stability. By achieving this, monetary policy is making a significant contribution towards economic growth and job creation in the euro area.
At the same time, universal banking also allows some banks, if they have the resources and expertise, to provide corporate or investment banking services to the more sophisticated corporate clients in a wide range of areas such as debt finance, equity fund raising, mergers and acquisitions and other advisory services. 5. Universal banking also makes a great deal of sense from a bank’s point of view. Under this model, a bank will be able to better serve the diverse needs of its customers, and generate fee and commission income which is not subject to the same kind of credit, maturity and other risks associated with income derived from lending and trading activities. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Customers need the services and banks provide them: it does look like a perfect match, doesn’t it? As always, perfection rarely exists in the real world and there is a catch inherent in this one-stop financial supermarket model. This is related to the different ways in which customers perceive a bank as a deposit-taking institution versus a brokerage house or investment bank. 6. Because of the easy access and convenience universal banks offer, they tend to attract customers along a very wide spectrum of financial sophistication and risk appetite. Some of these customers go to banks to conduct very basic banking transactions, such as cash withdrawal, rolling over fixed deposits, remittances, applications for loans, getting cheque books and credit cards etc.

These extra protection measures include audio recording of the marketing process, segregation of investment corner from the main banking hall or counters, and a mandatory 2-day pre-investment cooling off period for vulnerable and inexperienced investors. (b) Banks must take extra care in marketing and distributing investment products to their customers. They must remain vigilant throughout the entire distribution process, from product due diligence, risk assessment of the products, suitability assessment of the customers, training for the frontline staff and control and governance of the sales process. Universal banking vs. narrow banking 8. Let me move to the second issue, with a different meaning attached to the phrase “universal banking”. Here, “universal banking” refers to a business model in which banks are allowed to conduct their own proprietary trading and market making in addition to trading on behalf of their customers and offering other traditional banking services and products. This is another area which has attracted heated debate and a diversity of views. 9. We’ve seen the Volcker Rule in the US and we’ve heard the Governor of the Bank of England speak out in favour of narrow banks. Their concerns spring from the potential ability of the universal banks to leverage their cheaper sources of funds obtained from public deposits for risky ventures to raise the return on equity and to meet ever rising shareholders’ expectations.
That goal is central to the PRA’s general objective to promote the safety and soundness of the firms we supervise, as well as to the Bank’s financial stability objective of ensuring that the UK financial system can serve UK households and businesses in bad times as well as good. I want to use my speech today to set out my thinking on where our resolution framework has got to as we move closer to our 2022 commitment, and convey three key messages relating to that commitment. First, that progress towards the commitment reflects a regime which is built on robust and coherent principles: credibility, transparency, flexibility and proportionality. Second, how we apply these principles to the operationalisation of our regime – specifically, through the Resolvability Assessment Framework which is key to ensuring our resolvability regime is ‘fit and ready’ – fit for purpose and ready for use: and where there have been some important developments this week which I want to update you on. And third, that resolvability is not a binary concept; even once the 2022 commitment is fulfilled the work doesn’t stop. 2022 will see us pass the important milestone for the resolvability of major banks – but the work to maintain and improve the resolvability of firms within the UK resolution regime will continue. Credibility and transparency in the making There are many previous milestones in the history of UK banks’ resolvability, or lack of it, very few of them positive.

Timothy F Geithner: Restoring market liquidity in a financial crisis Welcoming remarks by Mr Timothy F Geithner, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Second New York Fed-Princeton University Liquidity Conference, New York, 13 December 2007. *  *  *  Welcome to the New York Fed and to this conference on liquidity. You are addressing some of the most important issues affecting financial markets today. Your timing is good, perhaps too good. We are all going to need some time and perspective before we will know enough to draw conclusions and recommendations from the events of the past six months. The conditions that led to this crisis took a long time to develop and they will take some time to resolve. I think it is appropriate, though, that as central banks act to address the challenges in markets today, we also begin to define the agenda for future research and policy. On December 12, the Federal Reserve and several other major central banks, announced a series of actions in response to the elevated pressures in funding markets. Together, these actions provide a more flexible and potentially more effective set of instruments, alongside our conventional monetary policy instruments, to help mitigate the risks that liquidity pressures in markets going forward could pose to the broader economy. With this framework of tools, we have the capacity to calibrate our response as market conditions change.
In addition, I should point out that, like the ECB, we resolutely support the initiative recently launched by the European Securities Markets Authority (ESMA). As the regulator of rating agencies, ESMA is seeking to establish guidelines so that these entities make public the way in which they incorporate sustainability elements into their valuations. To conclude, allow me to reiterate the importance and scale of the challenge we face. It may sound clichéd; but it is nonetheless true that we are not only talking about our well-being, but the well-being of future generations who may be left with little leeway if we are not sufficiently ambitious. The challenge extends to all agents and sectors, and proof of this is the broad and varied representation here in this room today. The financial sector undoubtedly has a notable responsibility in this challenge. In our capacity as financial authorities and under our mandate, we can and must do everything within our power to properly value, manage and mitigate the risks associated with climate change. The challenge is paramount and the need for coordination – with other national and international authorities – enormous. But I believe that, if we have been capable of structuring an appropriate regulatory response to the international financial crisis, we will also be capable of rising to the challenge here. I think that the measures rolled out from Europe will ultimately be an international reference and standard.

By 1994, per capita income had doubled to $ well in the league of developed countries. Within a generation, the lives of Singaporeans have been transformed beyond recognition. Towards a knowledge-based economy We always knew that as our economy matured, and we approached income levels of the developed world, our growth would slow down. But we did not expect the transition to be so sudden and difficult. The Asian Crisis was a major setback for the whole region. Before the region could fully recover, the US economy went into recession. In Asia, China continues to prosper, which is both a major opportunity and a huge competitive challenge. On top of that, September 11th and the discovery of terrorist groups in Southeast Asia linked to Al-Qaeda, signalled a new and troubling long-term problem. In these troubled circumstances, we entered the third phase of our economic development. We needed to rethink all our economic policies and strategies. The Economic Review Committee (ERC) report sets out what policies we need to change, and what new strategies to pursue. The ERC made many specific recommendations to prepare Singapore for the transition to a knowledge-based economy. But underlying them all are three fundamental, related ideas: Firstly, we must promote innovation, creativity, and entrepreneurship. Secondly, we must deregulate and liberalise the economy, to allow enterprise to flourish. And thirdly, we must encourage self-reliance complemented by community support, and minimise dependence on the state.
Anita Angelovska-Bezoska: Macedonia’s current macroeconomic landscape and main challenges ahead Speech by Ms Anita Angelovska-Bezoska, Vice-Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the economic and financial dialogue on the Economic Reforms Programs on Western Balkan and Turkey, Brussels, 12 May 2015. *  *  *  Dear Ministers, Dear representatives of the European Commission, European Central Bank and Eurostat, At the beginning, let me express our gratitude to the European Central Bank, European Commission and Eurostat for their assessment of our Economic Reforms Program for the period 2015–2017. Let me mention that we appreciate very much this dialogue with the EU institutions and the overall feedback on our policies that we have received during the process and we believe that it is highly beneficial regarding our preparedness for joining the EU. At this point, I would like to address several important issues related to the current macroeconomic landscape of the Macedonian economy, as well as the main challenges ahead. The growth momentum was kept in 2014, with the real GDP growth accelerating to 3.8% p.a. As the external environment is not sufficiently “growth-conducive”, the strong performance of the domestic economy is explained by country-specific factors. Firstly, it is a reflection of the positive fundamental shifts, with growing foreign investments, mainly in the tradable sector.

The capacity to withstand market turmoil was demonstrated during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. For a period of 18 months, Fund losses totalled roughly EUR 90 billion – more than 25 per cent of Norway’s GDP. The losses did not go unnoticed and led to a public  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  debate on the investment strategy. The conclusion was that the strategy is robust and that Norway must accept such fluctuations in the Fund’s capital, given the high equity share. This point was made clear through 2009 and 2010, when those losses were reversed, and additional gains made. The government remained faithful to the strategy, reaffirming its commitment to the Fund’s long-term investment strategy. The large size of the Fund can also be exploited. Last year the Fund started investing in real estate as a new asset class. The first property investments were made in France, Germany and the UK. We are now preparing for property investments in the US. Direct real estate investments will provide a fairly stable, inflation-adjusted cash flow. Over time, in accordance with the mandate, we aim to invest up to 5 percent of the Fund in real estate. The investments will be allocated to more countries as we gain experience. Slide 11: Considerable overweight in Europe The large size and the long investment horizon also entail a need for diversification. From the start, the Fund has been invested with a considerable overweight in Europe.
In this, central banks of the time viewed acting through foreign central bank correspondent accounts as preferable to acting through private intermediaries. Central banks’ mutual need for safe, confidential, and reliable account services The need for reciprocal relationships continues to resonate with central banks today even following the demise of the international gold standard and major changes in the international monetary system over the past one hundred years. Why do central banks value these relationships so highly? 2/8  BIS central bankers' speeches  Safety, confidentiality, and reliability are strong motivations for the reciprocal provision of banking and custody services among the world’s central banks. In particular, central banks around the world have a mutual need for correspondent banking12 and custody services to execute on core central banking functions in which the safety, confidentiality, and reliability of service provision is essential. This befits the character and role of central banks as highly risk-averse stewards of national wealth. It reflects the imperative for central banks to maintain untarnished credibility in the formulation and implementation of monetary policy, and an unblemished reputation in the operation and oversight of domestic and cross-border payment systems. And it is driven by central banks’ responsibility to safeguard financial stability. This results in central banks often preferring, and sometimes requiring, foreign reserve managers to use the account services of fellow central banks.

Changes in the compensation instrument can also help – for example, remunerating in equity is better than in cash and remunerating in junior or convertible debt might be better than either.29  (d)  Taxation/Subsidies: Authors have suggested a variety of ways in which government could penalise short-duration holdings of securities, or incentivise longduration holdings, using tax and / or subsidy measures. These measures differ in detail, but the underlying principle is to link them to the duration of an investor’s holdings or the length or nature of a company’s investment.30  Some of these initiatives have been tried and tested in differing degrees, at different times and in different countries. They have not obviously arrested the short-termism trend. It might be time to increase the level of policy ambition if the telescope is to be corrected, the voting  26  Aspen Institute (2009), CFA (2006). 27  Duruigbo (2011). 28  Securities and Exchange Commission (2010), Aspen Institute (2009). 29  Haldane (2011). 30  Aspen Institute (op.cit. ), Poterba and Summers (1995). BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  machine socialised, the savage civilised. Public policy could help keep the plums in the pudding. Without intervention, the long could become shorter still. References Aspen Institute (2009), “Overcoming Short-termism: A Call for a More Responsible Approach to Investment and Business Management”, The Aspen Institute Business and Society Program, September 9. Barton, D (2011), “Capitalism for the Long Term”, Harvard Business Review, March.
The fact that the European market is much more segmented than the North American market reduces the efficiency within the EU. Competition could be improved further throughout the whole of the EU. This is one of the areas where efforts will be made to contribute to improving productivity and growth within the EU to make the union one of the world's most competitive economies in 2010. At the moment, there remains much work to be done before this goal, which was established at the Lisbon meeting in 2000, can be achieved. Some small steps forward were taken at the Barcelona meeting last month. For instance, the countries agreed to open up the electricity and gas markets to corporate customers in 2004 and to open up the common air space by 2004. The single currency, the euro, could lead to stiffer competition as it will be easier for consumers and companies to compare prices of consumer goods and input goods in different countries when they are expressed in the same currency. The EMU could in the long term be expected to increase trade and integration between the member states. The studies that have been made indicate varying effects on trade from EMU membership for Sweden. Berkeley Professor Andrew K. Rose has estimated that Sweden's trade could increase by 30-50 per cent over the space of a few decades, which would lead to an increase in Swedish welfare of more than ten per cent in the long term.

ECB staff estimates show that the dispersion of the impact of PEPP on yields across euro area countries was indeed substantial (see right chart on Slide 7). For these reasons, the Governing Council decided last week that, in the current uncertain market environment, the PEPP remains the best and most effective instrument to respond to the unprecedented challenges that the pandemic poses to the euro area economic outlook. With its inherent flexibility, PEPP is best suited to address the dual objective of countering fragmentation in the euro area and closing the medium-term inflation gap that has emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic, in line with the temporary nature of the programme and its close link to the “coronavirus COVID-19 crisis phase”.5 Our regular asset purchase programme (APP) and our interest rate policy, together with our forward guidance on rates and reinvestment, remain geared towards addressing the weakness in broad underlying inflation that is unrelated to the outbreak of the coronavirus. In light of these considerations, the Governing Council decided to increase the PEPP purchase envelope by an additional € 600 billion to a total of € 1,350 billion and to extend the horizon of net purchases under the PEPP to at least the end of June 2021, or in any case until the Governing Council judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over. We also decided to reinvest the maturing principal payments from the securities purchased 4/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  under the PEPP until at least the end of 2022.