samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
With the possible exception of Australia, I don’t know if any other country has a word for “gazumping”. In April, over 500 newspaper headlines referenced house prices, around two thirds more than the total seen in that month last year. Central banks are very well aware of the impact that expectations about prices can have in the generation of inflationary pressures across the economy – the way in which expectations of future prices increases or decreases change people’s behaviour and actions. And while inflation expectations in the UK are generally well anchored around the MPC’s 2% inflation target, it is a very different story when it comes to expectations for house prices. Though expectations for sharply rising housing prices are not an issue of inflation pressure generally, they can matter a lot for the actions of people and the choices they make. Expectations of a fast rising market put pressure on potential buyers to get into the market as quickly as possible for fear of being priced out. And on sellers to delay and ask for higher prices. And expectations of future increases in the value of homes can make people more willing to take on debt to get on the ladder or to reach for that next rung. It is difficult to know how much expectations are driving the current market.

The establishment of the credit bureau is likely to increase credit business, lead to more competitive pricing of credit facilities and lower credit loan defaults and delinquency rates. To address the concerns over the treatment of credit data, MAS would follow two broad principles. 1  Refers to the submission of customer’s payment histories on their credit facilities. Positive data refers to timely payment (i.e. a good customer) and negative data refers to overdue payments. 2  BIS Review 7/2002  First, it is important that individuals have access to their own credit files and to have any inaccurate information corrected. Any dispute resolution process should be timely and effective, and should also be covered in the Consumer Banking Code that ABS is currently working on. Second, it is also important that individual privacy is respected and customer data are not misused for purposes other than what they were originally intended for. A good starting point is the principle of reciprocity on data usage, which all participating members to the bureau will need to adhere to. High standards of confidentiality is also expected of both the bureau operators and participating members. The ABS will continue to work with MAS to ensure that these principles are observed. The launch of the consumer credit bureau will mark the beginning of a new risk management process in Singapore. It will further bolster the integrity and transparency of Singapore’s financial sector.
Mr Heikensten discusses monetary policy aspects of Sweden’s position “inside EU, outside EMU”  Speech given by Mr Lars Heikensten, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a seminar arranged by Handelsbanken Markets, Stockholm, on 10 September 1999. *  *  *  First a word of thanks to those who arranged this seminar for inviting me to take part. The agenda covers many important issues that all deserve a thorough discussion. Sweden’s relationship with the European monetary union is one of them. Today I shall be considering four matters: the feasible timetable in the event of full participation in EMU; Sweden’s performance as regards the criteria for joining the euro area; considerations concerning the rate for the krona’s conversion to euro; and, finally, something about how economic policy should be formulated in the meanwhile in the event that we do join the monetary union. When could we join? The timetable in the event of our participation in the monetary union is set both by decisions in Sweden and by negotiations with the existing euro countries. As regards the domestic process, in December 1997 the Riksdag (Sweden’s parliament) decided that Sweden would wait and see, but that the door to future participation is not to be closed. Players in the financial markets, along with other observers, are now trying to work out whether this door will be opened wide and, if so, when that is likely to happen.

Those are absolute prerequisites for stability in banking. Active, and sometimes intrusive, supervision of banks, and particularly of global banks, has to be at the foundation for stable banking and finance. I don’t think any reconfiguration of the structure of banking and finance is going to get us to an intrinsically safer system, taken as a whole. And we have to remember that this last global crisis, which is still with us in many ways, started not with large universal banks or large global banks, but with narrow or specialised players. Countrywide (the mortgage provider) in the US, Northern Rock in the UK, investment banks like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. It was accentuated through AIG’s Financial Products division, which played a prominent role on the derivative markets. But it was not global banks that sparked off the crisis, although they helped propagate it globally. It bears reminding ourselves of that. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  No matter how we restructure the system, no matter how we cut down or dice the pieces, banking will involve risk. And without the right culture – whether it’s about an investment bank or commercial bank or a mono-line player – and without the active and intelligent supervision, we’d have the same problems over and over again. The problems that underpinned this global crisis were old-fashioned problems – property booms that were misjudged by banks, regulators and borrowers; and the problem of banks relying too heavily on borrowing short term to invest long-term.
Importance of open and competitive payment and settlement systems To sustain improvements in the efficiency of payment services and lower barriers of entry, competition is vital in the payment landscape. Strategies adopted by Bank Negara Malaysia for payment system development in Malaysia are therefore aimed to foster effective competition among the market players as a key driver to lower costs, enhance quality and innovation, and provide greater choice to the public. An example of this is reflected in Bank Negara Malaysia’s recent reform measures for the payment card market. These measures were introduced in response to inordinate market power to hike prices and the lack of transparency and information in how prices of products and services were being set. The payment card market in Malaysia is sizeable with 453.9 million transactions valued at RM141.5 billion in 2015. The payment card market is dominated by two major international payment card networks which cumulatively controlled about 90% of market share in Malaysia. Prior to the implementation of the reform measures in mid-2015, the growth of payment card terminals from 2013 to 2014 had remained stagnant at 8 terminals per thousand inhabitants. Based on a report published by the World Bank and the IMF in 2013, the higher Merchant Discount Rate or MDR paid by merchants, averaging between 1.5% to 2.5% when accepting payment card transactions, had the impact of pricing out smaller merchants.

Ladies and Gentlemen you will agree with me that we have come a long way since the time when many viewed the financial system simply as a sideshow, or a passive channel that allocated scarce resources to the most efficient uses. Today, almost everyone agrees that the financial system is essential for development. Improving the financial system can lead to higher growth and reduce the likelihood and severity of crises. It is essential that we have a clear understanding of the causes of business cycles and the working of monetary policy. In thinking about financial reform, we need to treat liberalization as a means rather than an end. Instead of pushing for immediate deregulation, we should try to understand the important role authorities play in financial markets. These steps will not only result in a better and more stable allocation of domestic capital, but also help countries to develop their capital markets with the requisite financial systems. In view of this I encourage you all to join hands with authorities in your countries in improving financial infrastructure so as to contribute to the development of our regional financial  BIS Review 149/2010  5  systems and thereby improving the availability of capital. I am also encouraged by the increasing number of financial service providers in our economies. As competition intensifies, banks and other financial institutions will start to reposition themselves by lowering the cost of lending to the private sector.
Polymer banknotes are more resistant to dirt and moisture, as well as more secure and difficult to counterfeit, as they allow for the insertion of a number of advanced security features, among others, the transparent window. Importantly, the existing banknotes of all denominations will continue to be circulated along with the new banknotes. They will continue to be legal tender and serve as means of payment. Dear ladies and gentlemen, Banknotes may seem familiar to many of us, as our intuition may suggest, but studies show that, even in advanced countries, only a few people are capable of distinguishing the images featured on each banknote. In order to strengthen the emotional relationship between the public and banknotes – part of our national identity – in the following days, the Bank of Albania will engage in an intensive campaign to introduce the new series of banknotes. The campaign, which starts today, will focus on helping the public become familiar with the new design. Detailed information will be provided on the security features used in each of the denominations and on ways to identify them. Promotion will be made for how to keep and care for banknotes with a view to increasing their lifespan. Last but not least, information will provided for how to read the messages that are artfully transmitted through the banknotes design, to boost our national awareness. In conclusion, I am grateful for the excellent work that has been done on the new series and look forward to its success.

It continues to realise its purposes, as it stands tall against other types of currency. Over the years, in accordance with international standards, taking into account average income levels in Albania, new denominations have been added. The series of denominations allows for an adequate banknote structure for the public and fends off its illicit use. Recently, a new banknote has been added – 10 000 lekë, which is in the production process and is expected to be put in circulation in 2020. The current series dates back to 1996 and its theme evokes the history of our nation, through the representation of prominent personalities who have left a legacy in our national memory. The Bank of Albania decided to retain this theme in the new series, which is practically an evolution and upgrade of the existing series. This option was preferred over a new theme not only because familiarity with the existing theme is considered as important for public trust, but also because it preserves an emotional bond with the content of the images. That is why in the new series we still see the engraved portraits of Naim Frashëri, Ismail Qemali, Pjetër Bogdani, King Gent, and Scanderbeg, concluding with Asdreni, the author of our National Anthem, on the 10 000 Lekë banknote. On each denomination, the portrait on the obverse blends harmoniously into the design on the reverse. The portraits account for most of the banknote design area and are engraved in raised print.
A further component of economic policy’s new direction was Sweden’s membership of the European Union in 1995. Sectors that had previously been protected were now exposed to international competition. Stronger competition in a number of fields meant that prices for some goods and services began to be adjusted downwards towards European levels. This process may continue in the years to come, though we cannot take that for granted. There are a good many goods and services for which prices in Sweden are higher than elsewhere in Europe. The point I want to make is that in many respects the favourable economic trend in recent years stems from the economic policy realignment that began in the 1980s and has been in progress ever since. This conclusion has two positive implications. 1  BIS Review 84/2000  One is that the measures which have been taken have most probably contributed to what is happening now. The other is that a continued policy orientation on stability and credibility can yield even better results in the future. In the 1990s the new direction of economic policy was accompanied by rapid, worldwide advances in the new information technology, which is being adopted successively in various sectors in Sweden. This has lowered the thresholds for establishing and running companies. Existing production processes can be made more efficient. The internet has made information more accessible and many firms can cut transaction costs. There is less need to tie up capital by holding large stocks.

Moreover, in its latest review of the Lisbon strategy, the European Commission underlined research and development as a shortcoming, but also pointed to insufficient confidence in social security systems and a lack of efficient markets in primarily transport, energy and financial services. Here I would like to focus on three areas that I believe are important for both increasing potential growth and improving the competitiveness and dynamism of the European economies. The first is to consolidate public pension systems so that they can withstand the demands of an ageing population. The second is to overhaul the structure of tax and benefit systems in order to minimise their distortional effects on the labour supply. Last, but not least, we need to reform the functioning of the financial markets so as to increase efficiency and thereby also the willingness to invest. The economic crisis gave Sweden a better starting position With regard to Sweden, much has already happened to improve the functioning of the Swedish economy and increase potential growth. This has helped Sweden to come further than many other euro area countries in terms of living up to the Lisbon strategy. However, some of this has been due to economic developments as opposed to a political will to change. For example, the economic crisis at the beginning of the 1990s resulted in the winding up of low-productivity operations, thus increasing labour productivity. During the same period, Swedish economic policy was changed with a view to laying the foundations for longer-term, sustainable economic growth.
As there are so many ways of measuring resource utilisation one might think that it would be appropriate to take a broad approach and make an “overall assessment” based on a large number of indicators when making decisions about monetary policy. It is, however, generally accepted that an inflation targeting policy in which target attainment is measured using a large number of different measures of inflation does not work very well. It is often possible to find a measure of inflation that is reasonably close to the target and almost any monetary policy can be justified with the help of a clever choice of index. Therefore, if the target and target attainment are to mean anything, one measure of inflation must primarily be used. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Similarly, I also believe that it does not work well to use a large number of different measures of resource utilisation. It is also often possible to find at least one measure that comes fairly close to normal resource utilisation and almost any monetary policy can be justified with the help of a clever choice of the measure of resource utilisation. This problem is in fact worse for resource utilisation than for inflation. This is because measures of resource utilisation also require us to make an assessment of the normal level for the measure concerned. For the output gap and the hours gap it is a case of determining the level and forecast for potential GDP and potential hours worked.

Indeed, it will take only a few seconds to authenticate our currency notes. For example, to apply the simplest “Look” technique, what is needed is only for us to hold the currency notes against a light. This will allow us to verify simultaneously at least four important security features in all of our currency notes; the 3D Agong’s watermark, bright electrotype numeral, perfectly register see-through mark or windowed colour shifting security threads with texts. This technique is the easiest and the simplest manner as no special gadget is required. Coupled with a few other techniques contained in the My Ringgit apps we can make a firm conclusion on the authenticity of the currency notes. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Similarly, our new coins are also sufficiently protected by unique security features. In the course of designing the coins, the Bank had engaged with various stakeholders to ensure that the new coins are not only practical but sufficiently protected as well. Each coin denomination is unique in term of size and security features to ensure no fake coins can pass through the coin authentication machines. As part of our financial education effort, Bank Negara today is launching a mobile application called My Ringgit. This application enables the general public to learn about the most practical and easiest techniques to authenticate our currencies and learn in greater detail the security features found in our currency notes.
This was the starting point for the reforms implemented in many countries during the 1990s and which meant that monetary policy, in slightly different ways and to varying degrees, was delegated to central banks along with a more independent status and with a clear mandate to hold prices stable. In practice, the Riksbank conducted its monetary policy independently from the mid-1990s, but formally it was not given an independent status until 1999.4 The Instrument of Government and the Sveriges Riksbank Act were then amended as part of the adjustment to the requirements in the EU treaty, requirements that were of course affected by the insights gained and by developments in the field of monetary policy. The changes in the regulatory framework meant, for instance, that an Executive Board was appointed at the Riksbank, consisting of six members and with the task of independently conducting monetary policy. At the same time it was confirmed by law that the objective of the Riksbank’s operations would be to maintain price stability. The independence thus concerned which interest rate decisions would attain the price stability target in the best way, not what objective the central bank would have for its operations. 3  Bäckström (2003). 4  See Bäckström (1998). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Better development with an anchor in place As I mentioned earlier, the inflation target gained credibility relatively quickly and inflation expectations were soon anchored around 2 per cent.

Yves Mersch: The future of Europe’s financial market infrastructure – the Eurosystem’s Vision 2020 Speech by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Sibos conference, Singapore, 14 October 2015. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, members of the panel, The beauty of innovation is that it never ends. Even the best ideas can be enhanced and complemented. The Eurosystem, the euro area’s network of central banks, has developed two major innovations in the field of financial market infrastructure over the past 15 years: TARGET (now TARGET2) and TARGET2-Securities, or T2S. Both platforms have significantly improved the way payments and securities are processed in Europe. However, as we look to the future, we see room for further enhancements and consolidation. As we think about where we want to go next, I should stress that our vision for market infrastructure integration is not, nor should be, ours alone. Following the success of our collaboration with the market during the development of T2S, we intend to take the same approach going forwards – to work together with the market to identify what its needs are and to draw on the expertise in both the public and the private sectors. Through collaboration we will define where European market infrastructure should be heading. As we think about future innovation, allow me to look briefly at past innovations. The digital camera, the mobile phone and the internet were three revolutionary innovations of the last century.
Compared with our June staff projections, the outlook has improved for 2021 and is broadly unchanged for 2022 and 2023. Inflation Inflation increased to 3.0 per cent in August. We expect inflation to rise further this autumn but to decline next year. This temporary upswing in inflation mainly reflects the strong increase in oil prices since around the middle of last year, the reversal of the temporary VAT reduction in Germany, delayed summer sales in 2020 and cost pressures that stem from temporary shortages of materials and equipment. In the course of 2022 these factors should ease or will fall out of the year-on-year inflation calculation. Underlying inflation pressures have edged up. As the economy recovers further, and supported by our monetary policy measures, we expect underlying inflation to rise over the medium term. This increase is expected to be only gradual, since it will take time for the economy to return to operating at full capacity, and therefore wages are expected to grow only moderately. Measures of longer-term inflation expectations have continued to increase, but these remain some distance from our two per cent target. The new staff projections foresee annual inflation at 2.2 per cent in 2021, 1.7 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 per cent in 2023, being revised up compared with the previous projections in June. Inflation excluding food and energy price inflation is projected to average 1.3 per cent in 2021, 1.4 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 per cent in 2023, also being revised up from the June projections.

However, many firms and households have taken on more debt during the pandemic. A deterioration in the economic outlook could threaten their financial health. This, in turn, would worsen the quality of banks’ balance sheets. Policy support remains essential to prevent balance sheet strains and tightening financing conditions from reinforcing each other. Conclusion Summing up, the euro area economy is clearly rebounding. However, the speed of the recovery continues to depend on the course of the pandemic and progress with vaccinations. The current rise in inflation is expected to be largely temporary and underlying price pressures will build up only gradually. The slight improvement in the medium-term inflation outlook and the current level of financing conditions allow favourable financing conditions to be maintained with a moderately lower pace of net asset purchases under the PEPP. Our policy measures, including our revised forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates, are key to helping the economy shift to a sustained recovery and, ultimately, to bringing inflation to our two per cent target. We are now ready to take your questions. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches