samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
To ensure stability in the financial system and to increase its efficiency in achieving the price stability, the Central Bank will have the power of taking necessary measures to strengthen the financial system and to determine the systemic risks. Besides removing the burden of the state-owned banks from the financial system and restructuring the banking system, the measures that would reduce the public sector borrowing requirement will boost the economic efficiency and secure the price stability. The Central Bank will not in any manner whatsoever extend credit to the Treasury and to the public sector, including outright purchase of government papers, as envisaged in the Maastricht Criteria. However, a transition period of six months is needed, before we can adhere to this principle in view of the operations we have to conduct in this post-crisis environment. Having said all this let me end my remarks by making a last point. The extraordinary period, which Turkey has undergone recently, should not create an obstacle for Turkey on its way to become a part of Europe in the medium-term. On the contrary, I think we should take advantage of the opportunities arisen from the turbulences, in order to reinforce the steps being taken by Turkey for the attainment of its goals. We must take the necessary structural measures to disinflate the economy and to boost the growth potential of the economy. Decisive steps must also be taken to meet the requirements of the Information Age.

Stefan Ingves: Monetary policy in an uncertain economic policy landscape Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, at the West Sweden Chamber of Commerce, Göteborg, 14 October 2014. *  *  *  Accompanying slides can be found on the Sveriges Riksbank’s website: http://www.riksbank.se/en/Press-andpublished/Speeches/2014/Ingves-Monetary-policy-in-an-uncertain-economic-policy-landscape. Continued low repo rate so growth and inflation can rise At the beginning of September, we members of the Executive Board of the Riksbank decided to allow the repo rate to remain at 0.25 per cent so that the currently low inflation will rise towards our target of 2 per cent. The low inflation we have today reflects the weak developments in economic activity both in Sweden and abroad. In this weak economic situation, companies have found it difficult to pass on their increased costs to higher consumer prices. However, as economic activity strengthens and demand rises, companies will have greater opportunity to raise their prices, which will contribute to higher inflation. We are expecting this to happen as economic activity abroad strengthens in the coming years. However, the world is somewhat out of step. While the signals from the United States are strong, developments in the euro area are surrounded by storm clouds, which can be seen in confidence indicators such as the purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing industry. The subdued confidence in the euro area is probably because uncertainty over what direction events will take is unusually great.
William C Dudley: The economic outlook and the role of monetary policy Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Chairman of the Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS), at the Economic Club of New York, New York City, 25 March 2013. *  *  *  Krishna Guha, Simon Potter, Jamie McAndrews, Lorie Logan, Kevin Stiroh, Paolo Pesenti, Richard Peach, Jonathan McCarthy and others on my staff helped with the preparation of these remarks. Clearly detailed accompanying charts to this speech can be found in the pdf document on the US Federal Reserve website. [For clarification, exhibits 8 and 14 have been revised to indicate that the charts show fiscal years]. It is a pleasure to have the opportunity to speak to the Economic Club of New York again. Today, I will focus on the economic outlook and the role of monetary policy. I will argue that the fundamentals underpinning the U.S. economy are improving and monetary policy is gaining additional traction. But this may not immediately lead to stronger growth because of the recent increase in fiscal restraint. As a result, I expect that labor market conditions will improve only slowly and that inflation will remain muted. Consequently, it will be appropriate for monetary policy to remain very accommodative. As always, my views are my own and may not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System.

Compared to those episodes, the risk of a spike in long-dated yields this time around may be somewhat lower for two reasons. First, this risk is receiving much attention. Big market moves are typically associated with surprises. For the market to reprice suddenly, I presume there would need to be some new information that led investors to significantly revise their view of the outlook or the Fed's reaction function. Second, the Fed's expansion of its own balance sheet may be a stabilizing influence. For example, the rise in interest rates during the prior episodes was amplified by convexityrelated hedging generated by the lengthening of expected mortgage duration. This should be a less powerful force this time around because the Fed holds a substantial portion of the agency MBS market. However, we should keep up our guard. The regulatory community must continue to take steps to mitigate the vulnerability of the economy to a sharp rise in long-term rates. This includes monitoring banks’ exposure to duration risk and the quality of their risk management and capital planning, while also looking outside of the banking system because some risks may reside elsewhere. In this regard, agency mortgage REITs and the risk of large outflows from bond mutual funds are issues that deserve ongoing attention. Conclusion The FOMC is committed to the dual objectives of maximum sustainable employment in the context of price stability. Currently we are falling well short of our employment objective and the restrictive stance of federal fiscal policy is a factor.
We can do so adopting a culture of permanent assessment of the actions arising from our responsibilities; providing other economic policymakers with the best analyses and proposals for improving economic growth and citizens’ well-being; assisting and collaborating with the research community in the use of our information to contribute to that objective; and promoting – also in collaboration with the public and private sectors – the economic and financial education of the public at large, enabling them to sufficiently understand and appreciate public policies and take the best financial decisions for themselves. This is part and parcel of our commitment and service to Spanish society. 1 For a discussion of the role of the independence of economic regulators, see P. Hernández de Cos  (2020), Testimony by the Governor of the Banco de España before the Audit Committee on Democratic Quality, the Fight against Corruption, and Institutional and Legal Reforms. 2 See S. Albrizio and J. F. Geli (2021), “ An empirical analysis of the determinants that can boost Next Generation  EU’s effectiveness”, Analytical Articles, Economic Bulletin 4/2021, Banco de España. 3 For a discussion on the importance of the use of administrative data by researchers, see M. Arellano (2018), “El  acceso a los microdatos administrativos públicos: la nueva frontera de la investigación económica y social”, XVIII Aula de Verano Ortega y Gasset, UIMP, Santander, 20–21 August. 4 See the Banco de España “Survey of Financial Competences”.

Moreover, the first round impacts of the recent hikes in end-user electricity and natural gas prices on end-2008 inflation are expected to be around 0.6 percentage points, which is higher than what we assumed in the previous Inflation Report. Meanwhile, considering the lagged impacts of last year’s drought and elevated prices of agricultural commodities in global markets, we now envisage that the price increases in processed food will persist for a while and the inflation in this item will stay at relatively high levels throughout 2008, albeit a slight decline. Upside revisions on the assumptions for food and energy inflation imply that it may take longer to bring headline inflation to 4 percent than envisaged in our previous Inflation Report. Therefore, in the absence of a significant correction in food inflation, headline inflation will most probably exceed the target level of 4 percent at the end of 2008. Forecast Range*  Medium-term Target  Uncertainty Band for 2008  Output Gap  2009-  2009-III  2009-II  2009-I  2008-  2008-III  2008-II  2008-I  2007-  12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2007-III  Percent  Figure 15: Forecasts for Inflation and Output Gap  *The shaded region indicates the 70 percent confidence interval for forecast.
ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 18 FEBRUARY 2021  Chart 6 Forceful fiscal policy response Increased spending and reduced taxes. As a percentage of GDP  10  5  5  0  0 ay or N  m er G  w  an  ce an  ly Fr  Ita  di In  na hi C  pa  il Ja  az Br  U  U  y  10  a  15  n  15  K  20  S  20  Sources: IMF and Norges Bank  The lockdown this past spring was sudden and brutal and its impact on businesses varied widely. Fiscal policy measures have targeted the industries hardest hit by containment measures. The objective has been the same: Persons who were out of a job had to be secured financially. Unnecessary job losses had to be avoided. Monetary policy has underpinned fiscal policy measures. Policy rates were reduced where possible. Moreover, unconventional monetary policy, such as asset purchases, was stretched even further. Central banks have also effectively performed the tasks assigned to them for ensuring well-functioning capital markets. Extensive central bank measures prevented problems in the financial system from amplifying the global downturn. 8  NORGES BANK  Chart 7 Very low interest rates Three-month money market rates. Trading partners1) .

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Brief overview of the Islamic financial system Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the launch of Commerce Tijari Bank Berhad, Kuala Lumpur, 15 April 2005. *  *  *  Bismillahirrahmanirrahim Y.Bhg. Dr. Rozali Mohamed Ali, Group CEO, Commerce Asset-Holding Berhad (CAHB) Ladies and Gentlemen, “Significant milestones have been achieved in our endeavour to build a comprehensive, efficient, dynamic, robust and resilient Islamic financial system. The Islamic financial landscape is now at the threshold of a new level of dynamism. The entry of foreign Islamic banking players, the transformation of Islamic banking windows into Islamic subsidiaries, the increasingly more vibrant Islamic financial markets, the enhanced inter-linkages with the global financial system, the enhanced consumer awareness, the strengthened regulatory, legal and Shariah infrastructure as well as the more conducive tax environment have culminated to open up new frontiers for the Islamic financial services industry in Malaysia, promising significant opportunities that will further enhance wealth creation and the potential for growth and development of the nation.” Ladies and Gentlemen, It is my pleasure to be here today to commemorate the official launch of “Commerce Tijari Bank Berhad”. Indeed, the emergence of Commerce Tijari Bank Berhad in the Islamic financial landscape will further enhance the diversity of the players in the Islamic financial system and will contribute to spur the growth of the Islamic financial services industry.
10  BIS Review 62/2008  Figure 14: Inflation and Output Gap Forecasts Forecast ForecastRange* Range*  Medium MediumTerm TermTarget Target  Output OutputGap Gap  Uncertainty UncertaintyBand Bandforfor2008 2008  1212 1010 88 Percent Percent  66 44 22 00 -2-2 -4-4 2011-I 2011-I  2010-IV 2010-IV  2010-III 2010-III  2010-II 2010-II  2010-I 2010-I  2009-IV 2009-IV  2009-III 2009-III  2009-II 2009-II  2009-I 2009-I  2008-IV 2008-IV  2008-III 2008-III  2008-II 2008-II  2008-I 2008-I  2007-IV 2007-IV  -6-6  Source: CBT *The shaded region indicates the 70 percent confidence interval for the forecast. Distinguished Guests and Members of the Press, Supply shocks have turned out to be more persistent than expected, increasing the risks to the second round effects and necessitating a significant upward revision in our inflation forecasts. Accordingly, monetary policy has already assumed a more cautious stance in order to eliminate the materialization of potential second round effects. Ensuring a steady decline in inflation will likely require tight monetary policy to be maintained for an extended period. Even then, the earliest time for reaching the 4 percent medium term targets is likely to extend beyond two years. However, this does not mean that the Central Bank will implement a looser monetary policy in the forthcoming period. On the contrary, the forecasts that I just presented are based on a tighter monetary policy stance compared to the previous period.

The Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Survey suggested that household secured lending and corporate lending rates were expected to rise further and all of this on the back of two years of flat GDP growth and three years of broadly flat credit growth to households and business in the UK. This was notwithstanding the MPC’s action on quantitative easing. FLS is designed to provide banks with medium-term funding at a more reasonable cost, with incentives that reduce the cost if banks lend more. This should improve credit creation in the economy through lowering rates on new lending, but to some degree it may also enable banks to improve their net interest margins and thus build more capital. At the same time the FLS was introduced, the Bank of England signalled its willingness to enhance its provision of liquidity insurance through the activation of the Extended Collateral Term Repo Facility. For its part, recognising the need to balance macro-prudential objectives in the way that I described earlier, the FSA has taken two steps. We have allowed banks to reduce the capital buffers they hold over the minimum Pillar One requirements in line with new lending that is consistent with the objectives of FLS, though to be clear, we do not require banks to use FLS to get this benefit.
Due to the escalation of trade tensions we are witnessing a significant slowdown in global trade [Slide]: in its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF expects the slowest global growth since 2008–2009 [Slide]. The loss of global growth due to the trade war could reach up to 0.8% next year, due mainly to its indirect effects, beyond tariffs: fall in business confidence and investment, decrease in productivity. Similarly, the twists and turns of Brexit have created volatility in UK quarterly growth, and weighed on business investment. Despite this gloomy context, the French economy is resilient, with growth at 1.3% close to its potential. Purchasing power per capita should accelerate sharply in 2019 (2.3%), due to the strength of labour income – 1 million jobs have been created over the past four years – and the fiscal stimulus. But – as a whole – the euro area is acutely affected, primarily due to the weight of Germany – with growth of only 0.4% expected this year. Of course Germany is highly specialised in the manufacture of capital goods and “overexposed” to global trade – German exports account for around 50% of GDP. Combined with a radical upheaval of the car industry, these phenomenon nearly constitute an asymmetric shock for the German economy. II. The recent monetary policy controversy is of little interest for the future Over the past few years, monetary policy has played its full part in helping Europe weather the storm.

To date, wage growth has been moderate and the same applies for actual wage settlements to date. It remains important that the expected improvements in economic conditions and labour market prospects are not jeopardised by inappropriate wage settlements. In fact, wage moderation would help both to contain inflation in the euro area and lead to further progress in employment creation. Wage negotiators can be assured that the primary objective of the Eurosystem is the maintenance of price stability in the medium term and that we are fully committed to this objective. The temporary increases in the 12-month rate of consumer price inflation which we are currently observing as a result of the oil price developments should not be reason for higher wage demands. There is now a broad consensus, also at the level of governments, that the currently favourable prospects for output growth in the euro area would be enhanced by a deepening of the structural reform process in the euro area. Governments of the euro area have already taken important initiatives, but the high level of unemployment in many countries shows that there is still much to be done. In this respect, fiscal policies can also make a substantial contribution to maintaining favourable economic conditions by using the current upswing as an excellent opportunity to proceed swiftly towards fulfilling the objectives of the Stability and Growth Pact. Governments should continue the process of fiscal consolidation which was observed in the run-up to Stage Three with ambition.
Sarah Dahlgren: More resilient, better managed, less complex – strengthening FMUs and linkages in the system Remarks by Ms Sarah Dahlgren, Executive Vice President of the Financial Institution Supervision Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association Conference, Boca Raton, Florida, 29 April 2014. *  *  *  Good morning and thank you for inviting me to your Annual Operations Conference. This event brings together an important cross-section of market participants – and looking at the attendance, I think there is good representation of nearly every important part of the financial system in the audience. Today, I am going to talk about the progress that the industry has made to address weaknesses identified through the financial crisis and to build resilience to future shocks. I will also offer some observations on areas of remaining challenges, particularly as we focus on the interconnections between and among various market participants. As always, my remarks today reflect my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System. It’s hard to believe that it’s been over five years since the onset of the worst part of the financial crisis – and I’m not sure whether it feels longer or shorter than that! But one thing I’m certain of is that a lot has changed in those five years, including fundamental changes in rules and regulations, as well as substantive changes in how firms and the system are structured and operate.

Financial institutions must be well-managed. Governance structures need to be in place to establish the appropriate decision-making processes, behaviors and incentives within these organizations. •  And, third, complexity. Financial institutions must become less complex. This objective speaks to the need to reduce the level of interconnectedness among large financial firms and to ensure that there are credible mechanisms for resolving even the largest firms without causing systemic disruption across the financial system. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Resiliency Much has been said about the U.S. and international set of regulatory reforms aimed at making global banking organizations more resilient – particularly in the areas of capital and liquidity. The importance of robust capital requirements for financial stability and the serious shortcomings of the pre-crisis regulatory capital regime have been well documented. A lot of work has been done on the capital front through a range of both domestic and international efforts. These efforts have addressed – in most cases – both the quantitative and qualitative elements of capital, and have also addressed the important management processes around capital. The Basel standards – and resulting U.S. regulation – address both the quantity and quality of capital and raise the bar on both elements for large firms. As well, the new capital rules will also require a capital buffer that increases with a firm’s size, complexity, interconnectedness and global footprint. Implementation of these new standards should significantly increase the safety and soundness of the financial system.
Jaime Caruana: The Basel II initiative Remarks by Mr Jaime Caruana, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, at the IIF Spring Membership Meeting, Madrid, 31 March - 1 April 2005. *  *  *  I would like to begin first by thanking for his kind introduction. It is an honour for me to participate once again in an event sponsored by the Institute for International Finance. It is doubly a pleasure for me to do so here in the city of Madrid. Although the title of this session is “regulation and consolidation in the financial industry”, I will not speak about consolidation in my intervention, because I believe that the role of the banking supervisor in such issues is minor compared to the role of the market. Structural changes in the financial sector, such as consolidation, should, in my opinion, be market-driven phenomena that respond to market needs - such as economies of scale, IT synergies, the benefits of diversification, gaining access to a larger client base, etc. This is particularly relevant in the EU context, where we are aiming for a truly single market. In this respect, I support all the steps the Commission is taking to remove remaining internal barriers and restrictions in pursuit of this goal. The banking supervisor’s role in issues related to consolidation is tightly defined by both the letter and spirit of EU banking legislation.

We have also published a working paper entitled: “Studies on the Validation of Internal Rating Systems” Although validation is foremost the responsibility of banks, supervisors must have a thorough understanding of validation in order to ensure the overall integrity of banks’ activities in this area. I think these principles set out clearly what supervisory expectations are, and should provide a useful guide to the industry. Our work on validation will accelerate over the coming months, although our focus will be more on sharing and cataloguing information and approaches, and not on trying to develop a prescriptive method. Close dialogue with the industry in our work will be of great importance. Let me finish by saying that we, the supervisory community, continue to devote significant resources and efforts to improving the consistency of cross-border implementation. Consequently, the excellent dialogue between supervisors, organisations such as the IIF, and the industry more broadly, must continue in the coming months and years ahead. I welcome the discussions that we have been having, both inside and outside this conference, and look forward to hearing more of your thoughts and perspectives. BIS Review 23/2005  3