The capacity of policymakers to restore stability was constrained by the depth of the balance sheet problems. In some cases, where the scale of external borrowing was less acute, policymakers had more room to act. But in most cases, policy options were very limited. Initially, governments were reluctant to let exchange rates move too far, because of fears that this would force banks and companies that had borrowed in dollars or yen into default on a scale that could further damage growth. At the same time, the authorities were reluctant to tighten monetary policy as a way to help stabilize the exchange rate because of concern it would hurt growth and perhaps exacerbate the flight from domestic assets. This dilemma made the initial policy response in the crisis countries look halting and tentative. And, uncertainty about the strength and continuity of political leadership further hampered government efforts to recover credibility. In the countries hit hardest by the crisis, looming issues of succession and elections compounded the problem of confidence. The crises prompted a searching reassessment of the conventional economic wisdom and a new appreciation of the challenges that come with financial integration. The classic measures of macroeconomic stability and policy prudence, in fiscal positions and measured inflation rates, could mask substantial structural weaknesses, and these same structural weaknesses could ultimately undermine the achievements of otherwise reasonably conservative macroeconomic policy management. Partial capital account liberalization, which encouraged the accumulation of short-term debt obligations, brought substantial risk, magnifying weaknesses in domestic financial systems.

Timothy F Geithner: Asia, the world economy and the international financial system Remarks by Mr Timothy F Geithner, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Economic Society of Singapore 2007 Annual Dinner, Singapore, 13 June 2007. *  *  *  Good evening. I am pleased to be able to join you tonight. The past decade has been one of remarkable achievement in Asia. This is a testament to the resilience and dynamism of this region, and yet the memories of the financial crises remain vivid and still exert a powerful influence on policy today. Tonight, I want to reflect on what policymakers learned from the crises, to review the extent of the progress since and to examine some of the challenges ahead. The Asian financial crises of the late 1990s were exceptional in many respects. Described at the time by some as the first crises of the 21st century, they were commonly regarded as without precedent and fundamentally different from previous emerging market financial crises. Here were countries with a remarkable record of rapid economic growth over several decades, substantial rates of investment, with low inflation and relatively strong fiscal positions. Most conventional indicators of economic performance and financial strength did not suggest acute underlying vulnerability. Yet the crises erupted with remarkable speed and force. The sudden collapse of confidence led to a sharp reversal of capital flows to the region.