samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
CPI inflation has fluctuated considerably in recent years, mainly because the repo rate was cut rapidly in connection with the crisis. CPIF inflation, which excludes these effects on inflation, has fluctuated much less and if we also adjust for energy and food then inflation has been close to the long-term target for the CPI of 2 per cent (see Figure 13). 10  Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth: “This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises”, 2008. 11  Sveriges Riksbank, “The effects of the financial crisis on the labour market – a comparison of Sweden, the euro area and the United States”, article in Monetary Policy Report, February 2011. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  The Riksbank’s measures during the crisis My second thesis is thus that monetary policy worked well during the crisis. But the Riksbank’s efforts did not just concern monetary policy, they related to an even greater degree to measures to preserve financial stability. The experience gained from the financial crisis tell us that measures to preserve financial stability and monetary policy measures must cooperate to counteract the negative consequences of the crisis and that it is not always so easy to relate one type of measure to a certain problem and the other type to another. The reasons why I think the Riksbank was able to handle the crisis well are that the measures were taken quickly and were forceful and that they helped to preserve financial stability and keep up domestic demand.

This is not a widespread issue: the average NPL ratio is 5.4% in the European Union as of September 2016, and in many countries, including France and Germany, it is below 4%. But it is a challenge which seriously affects specific banks in certain countries, mainly Italy and Portugal. So this challenge is manageable, but it needs to be actually managed: the quicker the better. Recent initiatives by Italian authorities are a step in the right direction, with the active involvement of European supervisory authorities. Third factor: the digital transformation. It is true that digitalisation is disrupting traditional customer relationship models. But it also creates opportunities: for instance, more diverse and accessible financial services, more complete customer satisfaction, greater valorisation of data. Yet, in order to succeed in the digital transition, financial companies need first to place innovation at the heart of their strategic management; and second to examine ways of transforming their business models, mainly in Retail. Obviously these are difficult choices that need to be made by the companies themselves. The strategic way forward is not up to regulators, and will not be uniform. That said, let me share some thoughts with you. On the income side, the response could be twofold: diversifying the range of services – both proprietary and via partnerships – that are offered to customers; and adjusting existing pricing policies, with fewer flat-rate prices and more pricing by use.
BIS Review 57/2008  5  The outlook is far from certain… In the forecast we published just over two weeks ago we assume that the rapid commodity price rises are partly temporary and that they will subside in the future. We are also expecting the krona to be strong. This will contribute to inflation falling. But of course this is uncertain, not least for the reasons I took up earlier this morning. If the international price impulses were to become stronger and longer lasting than expected, inflation would of course be higher. But as I see it, it is not impossible that the international price rises will instead be lower than expected. This would push down inflation more quickly. One possible reason for this would be if international economic activity slows down more quickly than anticipated. We have highlighted these risks in earlier reports. A further factor, which in my opinion contributes to the uncertainty in the assessment, is the increased interest in portfolio investment in commodities. If the expectations of future return on such investments alter, it could contribute to a more sudden slowdown. And this would gradually affect consumer price inflation. It is also possible that such an effect – that capital is withdrawn and invested in other assets – has contributed to the price of wheat falling more rapidly recently. With regard to movements in the commodity markets since the previous forecast, prices have moved in slightly different directions.

What has happened in recent years could be described as a global increase in the relative price of energy and commodities, such as food, in relation to manufactured products. Inflation is due to long-term monetary policy, not relative prices Changes in relative prices play an important role for how resources are allocated in a market economy. An increase in a relative price is a signal that resources have become scarce in a particular area in relation to other areas. It is therefore often profitable to invest there. It is exactly this type of market mechanism that appears when interest in mining increases and optimism rises in the parts of Sweden suffering from depopulation. In a corresponding manner, high food prices provide an incentive to begin cultivating previously unused land around the world. There is thus reason to believe that the higher relative price will in the long term increase the supply of commodities, which will then better match the demand for them. However, the adjustment may take time. It remains to be seen whether supply will increase sufficiently to keep an even pace with world market demand. It is therefore difficult to predict how long relative commodity prices will continue rising. But what is fundamental from a monetary policy perspective is that changes in relative prices do not in themselves constitute inflation. Inflation refers to general price levels, or the average of all prices, rising over time. The general price level is measured with some broader measure of prices, such as the consumer price index, CPI.
Commercial banks operating in the eurozone are willing to borrow around 250 billions Euro from the European Central Bank paying the key policy rate and at the end of the same day to deposit the same money at the European Central Bank being paid the discount rate, which is 1 percentage point less, but the spread between the short-term money market rates and the key policy rate still persists. Magnitude of the commercial banks’ position compared with the European Central Bank shows how huge the uncertainty has been. Only restoration of confidence about solvency and financial stability among commercial banks can most probably solve this problem. The third frontier we are concerned about is connected to the emergency liquidity assistance. Under standard circumstances central banks provide liquidity to commercial banks only. In case of an urgent need a commercial bank may ask the central bank for an emergency credit. What we see in the United States today is an attempt to extend this emergency assistance beyond the banking system and provide liquidity against collateral to non-banking firms. On one hand, one understands the effort of the Federal Reserve to provide funding also to the non-banking sector of the economy when the traditional channels are freezing. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is effectively printing money against collateral with uncertain value and there are concerns when and how the Federal Reserve will close and null these operations to avoid potential inflationary consequences.

1 Based on those he expressed a view, which I share, that while the recent experience may have made us a bit more confident about detecting bubbles, it has not resolved the problem of doing so in a timely manner, nor has it shown that small-to-modest policy actions will reliably and materially dampen speculation. An extra policy reaction to changes in asset prices thus still remains questionable. The second frontier to be mentioned tonight is related to the monetary policy implementation, current situation on the money market and financial stability of the banking sector. For years the monetary policy implementation was not an issue and central banks were able to tighten the short-term money market interest rates such as for instance 3M PRIBOR closely to the key policy rate. Unfortunately, this changed in August 2007 for the US interest rates when the 3M LIBOR for the US dollar denominated funds started to deviate significantly from the Federal Reserve target for funds. A year later following the second round of the financial crises that peaked during the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers also the Czech short-term money market rates started to elevate well above our policy rate, the two week repo rate. 1  Quoted from speech of Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn: “Monetary Policy and Asset Prices Revisited” at the Cato’s Institute 26th Annual Monetary Policy Conference, Washington, D.C., on November 19, 2008.
The appropriate level of risk is something we are currently discussing with firms. Liquidity horizon. Finally, we are aware of banks seeking out funding that matures just beyond the time horizon used to calculate regulatory liquidity requirements. These include the Liquidity Coverage Requirement’s (LCR) 30-day window. If a firm subject to the LCR accepts a deposit that can be withdrawn by giving less than 30 days’ notice, it has to hold a certain amount of high-quality liquid assets as insurance against the deposit being withdrawn during stress. As yields on high-quality liquid assets are relatively low, this can drag down profitability. But a bank can evade this by obtaining a deposit that matures after 30 days, since these deposits generate no requirement for counterbalancing high-quality liquid assets. I recently saw a term-sheet for an evergreen 35-day call account. In previous times, the market-standard notice period was one calendar month. Why the shift from one-month to 35 days? The traditional one-calendar-month call account is only sometimes LCR-friendly – during a 31-day month – whereas the new 35-day product always is. 21  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  21  But how much additional liquidity has been obtained by extending the funding profile by five days? And how strong is liquidity risk management beyond the narrow requirements of the LCR?

This is important because, even though we might think that our rules and regulations are now in much better shape, history tells us that the commercial incentives of firms will create pressures to find ways to minimise the impact of those rules. I am especially mindful that financial institutions will always be able to innovate faster than we are able to modify the prudential rulebook. In order to remain fit for purpose, the prudential regulatory framework must be responsive to changes in the behaviour and structure of the financial system and identify any gaps, faults or incoherence that can lead to perverse behaviour. This is why we need well-informed rule-makers and alert supervisors, who together can smell when something is off and decide what to do about it. And this is one reason, in my view, why supervision will be particularly important in the coming phase. The financial services industry that we regulate is highly developed, highly innovative and highly sophisticated. But, stripped bare of this complexity, it remains a business in which individuals need to exercise judgement, skill and care. The role of the supervisor is to observe this behaviour and form judgements about the extent to which the firm – and the individuals running it – meet the intention, as well as the letter of, the regulation. Some innovation by financial institutions in response to regulation will be intended by regulators, or, if not intended, at least benign.
Our stabilisation policy rests on four pillars that were established in the 1990s and in 2001: the oil fund mechanism, the fiscal rule, a floating exchange rate and inflation targeting. This system was introduced against the backdrop of wide fluctuations in economic developments during the first twenty years of the oil age in Norway. Under the oil fund mechanism, increased government petroleum revenues are invested abroad, which curbs the impact of oil price swings on demand and output - and on inflation and the krone exchange rate. A floating krone exchange rate also has a stabilising effect, and the exchange rate normally appreciates in favourable periods and depreciates during adverse periods. It is easiest to express the advantage of this during adverse periods. If the krone remains at a level that is too strong, real wage growth must be lower than productivity growth in order to strengthen enterprises and employment. This only occurs when unemployment is high. With a flexible exchange rate, competitiveness may also strengthen as a result of a depreciation of the krone. A flexible exchange rate can reduce fluctuations in employment and output. The fiscal rule that provides for a steady phasing-in of petroleum revenues and the inflation target anchor expectations concerning developments in the krone exchange rate and inflation. Moreover, the fiscal rule contributes to restraining the pace at which international exposed industries are scaled back. When these policy guidelines are adhered to, they are in principle just as conducive for coping with favourable periods as with adverse periods.

Lim Hng Kiang: Boosting international linkages and cross-border opportunities Opening remarks by Mr Lim Hng Kiang, Minister for Trade and Industry and Deputy Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the 4th World Islamic Banking Conference: Asia Summit 2013, Singapore, 4 June 2013. *  *  *  Your Excellencies, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. And to all our foreign guests, a warm welcome to Singapore. Introduction I am honoured to be invited to deliver the opening address for the 4th WIBC Asia Summit. Since its inauguration, I am pleased to see that the Conference has grown in participation and stature, with attendance nearly doubled since 2010. Continued growth of Islamic Finance When this conference convened in Singapore this time last year, one key takeaway was that the Islamic Finance industry, being well-capitalised and tied to underlying real economic activities, was presented with unique opportunities to expand further in an era of deleveraging by global financial institutions and the demand for back-to-basic investment. The need for the industry to integrate itself with global finance and strike roots in key international financial centres was also emphasised. We have indeed seen continued strong growth in the Islamic finance industry over the past year.
Mr Heikensten speaks on the euro and European economic policy Speech by Mr Lars Heikensten, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, the Swedish central bank, at Merita-Nordbanken in Malmö, Sweden on 16 June 1999. The single European currency, introduced at the beginning of this year, marks a major change for the economic policies of countries in the euro area. The clearest example is, of course, the transition to a single monetary policy. The proper functioning of the monetary union in the long term presupposes that the new European Central Bank succeeds in making its policy and the euro understood and credible. Important factors in this context are how the new central bank chooses to work, how monetary policy is continuously formed and how it is communicated to the general public and to markets. However, a well-constructed monetary policy and a central bank that acts wisely are not sufficient to ensure that the union functions in the longer run. If growth and employment in the euro area are to be as high as possible without jeopardising price stability, all the components of national economic policies will have to pull together. The fiscal, structural and labour market policies of the individual countries influence both the conditions under which the new central bank is operating and, to the highest degree, Europe’s future prosperity. A framework exists for this joint effort.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the main purpose of collecting sex-disaggregated data is to determine the levels of access, usage and quality of financial services; identify barriers to women financial inclusion; and assist with modifying the existing policies, strategies and regulatory measures that have been earmarked for increasing women’s financial inclusion in the medium to long term in Zambia. Collection of sex disaggregated data and the use of this data provides an opportunity for countries to develop policies that specifically target women’s financial inclusion and at the same time provides data and information for financial service providers to build the business case for developing products and services for women. Data will help us to know where we are, where we need to be and which areas to focus on. Thus the main objective of the project we embarked on last year is to establish a framework for collection of reliable, quality and comparable sex-disaggregated data that can facilitate the measurement of progress made toward closing the gender gap. Distinguished guests, let me highlight the key findings from the Survey, which will be the subject of detailed discussion in the course of this morning. The survey revealed among others that; 1. While the financial sector was among the sectors that employ a high percentage of women, they make up 45% of those employed in the sector, presenting a five percentage gender gap.
Freeing up entry to wholesale banking First, we will significantly broaden participation by foreign banks in the domestic wholesale market. We have to do more to encourage quality international banks to use Singapore as their Asian base. Granting them more access to corporations and high net worth individuals will strengthen their business case to develop their operations in Singapore. Opening up the wholesale market to international banks will also benefit industries in Singapore. It will give our industries better access to world-class financial products and services that will help them develop their businesses. MAS will make a fundamental shift, towards a licensing regime that distinguishes between retail and wholesale banks, away from the 3-tier licensing regime of Full, Restricted and Offshore Banks. We will rename the existing Restricted Bank licence as the "Wholesale Banking" licence to better reflect the wide range of activities that can be already conducted under the licence. We will phase out the Qualifying Offshore Bank and Offshore Bank licence, and upgrade all existing QOBs and OBs to Wholesale Bank status over time. The upgrading will allow these banks to accept $ fixed deposits above $ and operate $ current accounts. It will also remove limits on the amount of $ lending that they otherwise face as offshore banks. We plan to grant some 20 Wholesale Banking licences over the next two years. Banks will be admitted to Wholesale Banking status in priority of their financial strength and ability to contribute to Singapore's financial industry.

Small depositors Given the prospect of mergers and rationalisations, it is natural that many bank customers are apprehensive and worried about how they will be affected. A merger will result in rationalisation of branch and ATM networks, which will inconvenience some customers. But overall, customers should have access to more branches and ATMs after the merger, even though not every existing branch and ATM can necessarily be retained. And because a larger merged bank can operate more efficiently and realise revenue synergies, it should be able to provide better service and greater choice to customers. Of course the bank will have to handle the implementation carefully and sensitively, giving customers adequate notice of changes and helping them to adjust. It is in the bank’s own interest to do this, and I am sure they will make every effort to do it well. Unfortunately this does not mean that as a result of a merger, every bank service will become cheaper or free. This is not possible, not because of mergers, but because of competition. Competition will force banks to watch their bottom lines more closely, and to make each service and product break even. It will become harder for banks to continue cross-subsidising services that they used to provide for free or below cost. That was a luxury that they could only afford in a protected and languid market where profits came easily, a state of affairs which was unsustainable in the long run.
The vast bulk of the Fed’s portfolio is highly liquid – currently we hold $ billion of Treasury securities, $ billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, and $ billion of agency debt against about $ billion of excess reserves. All the excess reserves could be mopped up by asset sales alone if that proved necessary. The Federal Reserve has been very aggressive in responding to the financial crisis. We have rolled out numerous new liquidity facilities and have engaged in lending activity under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act for the first time since the Great Depression. These actions have been successful in mitigating the risks of financial collapse and a more severe  4  BIS Review 122/2009  contraction in economic activity. The financial system is now healthier and the economy is recovering. But despite these successes, we need to be clear that what has happened to our financial system and the economy is wholly unsatisfactory, and that a broad range of regulatory policies and practices need to be recalibrated to address the shortcomings of our financial system. With inflation low and long-run inflation expectations stable, and our ability to remove monetary accommodation in a timely manner intact, our near-term focus should be to keep significant monetary accommodation in place for an extended period in order to achieve our dual objectives of maximum employment and stable prices. Thank you for your kind attention. I would be very happy to take a few questions. BIS Review 122/2009  5

This new technology has not only created a demand for new or improved payment services, it has also provided payment service providers with new channels through which their services can be supplied. The growing number of mobile payment services is an example of this. A number of challenges for the banks Banks have dominated the retail payments market for a long time and they still have a strong position. They are the “factories” of the retail payments market. They are usually BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  large scale and sell standardized payment services. However, they have to meet a number of challenges. One challenge relates to the fact that banks operate on a vast scale providing payment services that can be used in a broad variety of situations. In an environment that quickly changes and where tailor-made payment solutions are increasingly demanded, it is a tall order to meet such a variety in demand. We should also remember that the core business of banks is financial services including payment intermediation. They are not technology firms even though they are heavy users of technology. Innovation in payment services is usually not a question of inventing a wholly new payment process from account to account. Rather it is taking some service that is already out there and offering a new way of accessing that service. As an example, many mobile payment services and electronic wallets are just new ways of initiating card payments. A recent example is Apple Pay.