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30  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  30  Chart 9: Model simulations of the housing market  Chart 10: The distribution of house prices Percent year on year  30 25  Real house price growth  20 15  Simulation  10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -20  30  80  130  180  Number of years Source: Baptista et al (2016). Notes: Blue is the list price index, red the house price index and green the number of years a house is on the market. Please see the speech website for the animation. Source: Baptista et al (2016); Hills, Thomas and Dimsdale (2016); Bank calculations. Notes: The blue diamonds show the distribution of simulated house price growth for over 160 years from the model. The red diamonds show the distribution of real house price growth between 1847 and 2015. This same approach can also be used to examine the impact of various macro-prudential policy measures, whether hard limits (such as an LTV limit of 80% for all mortgage contracts) or soft limits (such as an LTI cap for some fraction of mortgages). These policies could also be state-contingent (such as an LTV limit if credit growth rises above a certain threshold). As an example, we can simulate the effects of introducing a loan-to-income (LTI) limit of 3.5, where 15% of mortgages are not bound by this limit.