samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Let me stress this point: a CBDC would be created with banks, not against them nor in spite of them. I could go even further: in the digital universe, a CBDC can help to preserve the complementarity between central bank money and commercial bank money. Failing this, commercial banks will face a difficult challenge competing with the BigTechs and their unrivalled resources and network effects, and with private stablecoins. With that in mind, let me now turn to the triangle of actions:  The first action in response to the risks posed by private stablecoins is of course regulatory. Our main challenge is to avoid regulatory arbitrage, where players  relocate to other jurisdictions to circumvent regulations. We must ensure that all countries apply strict regulations regarding crypto-assets, and that no stablecoin arrangement enters into operation without having fully met the regulatory expectations. The European Union has been a pioneer in this field, putting forward last September a proposal for a Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation (also known as MiCA). I sincerely hope the EU shall adopt this first harmonised regulatory framework in the coming months. If it modifies the Commission’s proposal, it should only be to strengthen it. Crypto-asset issuers and entities providing additional services, such as transfer or custody, will in particular have to provide a predictable redemption right in sovereign currency for asset holders. They will also be subject to uniform requirements across the EU and act under the watch of supervisory authorities, from whom they will have to obtain prior authorisation.

For instance, there are studies based on general equilibrium models indicating that the contribution of capital to productivity growth is  3  Forsling & Lindström (2004)  4  See, for example, Stiroh (2001) and Jorgenson et al (2006). 5  Bernanke (2005)  BIS Review 61/2007  3  underestimated in growth accounting. 6 If we avoid such underestimations the residual item declines. Our knowledge has increased. And it is important for us at the Riksbank to increase our knowledge of the development of productivity and of what might explain it. One of the current projects at the Riksbank aims to obtain greater knowledge of how IT investment, reorganisation and further education together affect productivity. Better statistics lead to better analysis I would like to conclude this section with a few words on the considerable significance of economic statistics for being able to analyse productivity and the driving factors behind it. The previous US central bank governor, Alan Greenspan, was famous for his ability to take in large volumes of statistics. He became legendary when in the mid-1990s he was the first to predict that productivity growth in the United States would strengthen as a result of increased use of IT. This led to the central bank being able to conduct a more expansionary monetary policy for a period, without inflation rising. A few years ago I carried out an examination of economic statistics. My conclusions then were that these needed to be improved in four areas.
Norges Bank has launched a project to assess the payment and settlement system as a whole. The aim is to ensure that we have an efficient and secure payment infrastructure also in the future. Some key issues are: Should our payment infrastructure continue to be all-Norwegian or could it be more international? In that case, how do we resolve the questions relating to national contingency preparedness? Should payments continue to be cleared between banks prior to settlement at the central bank, or is it more efficient to settle payments one-by-one directly at Norges Bank? When the current settlement systems were introduced, technological limitations and costs placed restrictions on the volume of payments that could be settled in real time at the central bank. The main rule has been for large interbank payments to be settled individually at the central bank, while payments between banks’ customers are sent to a clearing house before banks’ positions are settled at the central bank. At Norges Bank, these positions are settled five times a day Monday through Friday. Technological developments in recent years – with cheaper and more secure IT infrastructure – now make it possible to settle retail payments as well directly and in virtually real time at the central bank. Unlike the traditional settlement systems, the new systems can be kept open around the clock seven days a week. This will pave the way for more efficient general purpose infrastructures directly operated by central banks.

Payment service providers will be able to compete for customers supported by an efficient and secure system. Banks save considerable sums because an extensive network of branches is no longer necessary. The infrastructure is a collective good that benefits everyone. 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  It has long been our experience that industry operators come together and agree good solutions in partnership with Norges Bank. But developments in technology and market structure, where payment services are increasingly becoming a competitive arena, may hinder the emergence of good common solutions. We run the risk that progress will slow and the payment system will become fragmented because the common infrastructure is eroding. We must now consider whether Norges Bank should take action to counter this fragmentation. Future users of payment services will hardly be satisfied with payment transactions that take several hours or days to complete. The infrastructure for real-time payments is therefore critical. In 2016, Norges Bank took the initiative on a joint project with the banking industry to put in place an improved real-time payment platform. In spring, Norwegian banks declined the invitation to participate in the P27 project. The soon-to-be-launched Straks 2.0 instant payment platform is an improvement, but not a permanent solution for real-time payments in Norway. Among other things, it is not sufficiently well-suited to business users. The question is how we proceed from here. It has proved to be a challenge to drum up support for carrying out the necessary modernisation of the infrastructure owned by industry bodies.
Miguel Fernández Ordóñez: Taking of stock of the Toledo Pact Testimony by Mr Miguel Fernández Ordóñez, Governor of the Bank of Spain, before the Non-Standing Committee for the Monitoring and Assessment of the Toledo Pact Agreements, Madrid, 15 April 2009. *  *  *  Five years since the last assessment of the Toledo Pact, and under a new assessment process initiated by Parliament in 2008, I appear today before this Committee to convey my views on the situation of and possible reforms to the pension system. These opinions are the summary of a note drafted by the Banco de España Research Department, which will shortly be forwarded to you. Before I begin, I should stress that the content of the Toledo Pact, i.e. the pension system and its reform, does not come under the purview of the Banco de España. Defining specific reforms to the pensions system is an eminently political matter and is thus for the legislature to decide upon. Accordingly, the note the Research Department is finalising and whose content I shall outline for you today should not be considered as a reform proposed by the Banco de España. It is simply a summary of what may be taken as a consensus among experts regarding the diagnosis of our pension system and its attendant problems, and the potential means for tackling them. Indeed, the summary is an update of that presented before this same Committee by the Director General of the Research Department in 2000.

And I am convinced that moderate reforms adopted in sufficient time will not only help resolve long-term problems but, by offering reassurance and reducing uncertainty over the future, they will also have favourable effects in the short run in the difficult economic circumstances currently besetting us. BIS Review 51/2009  5
BIS Review 23/2009  5  To summarise – with the most recent interest rate cut and the forecast for the future interest rate we are expecting to be able to counteract the restraining effects of the financial crisis on the Swedish economy. The economy will gradually return to a more normal situation and the Swedish economy will begin to recover next year. Resource utilisation will be lower than normal for the entire forecast period but will rise in 2011. We are assuming that CPI inflation adjusted for the effects of changes in mortgage rates will be close to the target of 2 per cent at the end of the forecast period. Uncertainty but also preparedness for unexpected developments It is important to bear in mind that economic prospects are unusually uncertain at the moment. For example, it may take longer than expected before the financial markets function normally once again. It is also possible that the effects of the economic policy will come sooner and with greater force than anticipated in our main scenario. The future direction for monetary policy will depend, as always, on how new information on economic developments abroad and in Sweden will affect the prospects for inflation and economic activity in Sweden. The Riksbank’s decisions are based on forecasts for a more or less uncertain future. Unforeseen events in principle occur all the time. This is something we have to live with, no matter how good are forecasts are.

Indeed, the volume of global FDI has almost quadrupled since 1980, a much faster progression than world trade, which barely doubled. For the FDI host countries this has meant not only an increase in output and employment, but often also a transfer of technology and know-how that has considerably strengthened their economies. In this respect, the experiences of Ireland and Portugal immediately spring to mind. Thus, failing to compete in a globalized world is likely to result not merely in lower sales but, more importantly, also in less investment and, therefore, in weaker growth prospects. In sum, globalisation implies increased opportunities but also risks. The opportunities cannot be seized and the risks minimized, however, without an appropriate strategy. For this reason many countries are to-day actively engaged in improving their market positioning and their cost structures relative to their competitors in order to exploit opportunities for increasing their value added. Some of the more interesting dynamics engendered by globalisation are taking place at the regional level. Economic integration is proceeding rapidly in Europe, Asia and the Americas and, as a result, the region rather than the nation state is gaining pre-eminence as the locus for policy-making in the political sphere and for investment in the economic sphere. Regional integration is, therefore, rapidly becoming a key vehicle for gaining access to world markets and for attracting foreign investment. There is a growing realization that countries which remain outside of regional alliances are likely to become increasingly marginalized.
In the Figure, they have been included as deviations from the average in 2000–2007, without taking a stance on which levels should be considered normal. They may have been affected both by the reforms made and by the deep recession. These are, of course, important issues to be addressed, but I will not go into them today. (Figure 6. Labour market gaps). The various labour market gaps co-vary for natural reasons. However, the employment rate, the employment gap and the hours gap reach zero at the start of 2011 and are faintly positive for the rest of the forecast period, while unemployment is above average over the entire forecast period. It is common for unemployment to increase rapidly in a deep recession and decrease slowly during the recovery. However, it is also possible that we are underestimating the strength of the recovery in the labour market – as, indeed, we have done recently. It can also be noted that the positive deviations from the average are of the same magnitude in 2007 as they were at the previous peak in 2001. The National Institute of Economic Research’s Economic Tendency Survey can also be used to describe resource utilisation. There exists a clear connection between various variables in the Survey. For example, companies’ planned price increases co-vary with the other variables, for example shortage of labour. (Figure 7. Indicators for the business sector). However, most of these reported variables are ones that show changes. This is true of demand, for example.

The early stages of past recoveries have been led by consumer spending, particularly for durable goods and residential investment. For example, in the first year of recovery following the deep recessions of 1973–1975 and 1981–1982, real consumer spending increased an average of 6.5 percent and residential investment rose an average of 38 percent. It is unlikely that we will experience this type of strength this time. Households have suffered unusually large shocks to both income and wealth and many remain highly leveraged (Chart 18). Although the household debt to net worth ratio has declined considerably from its peak, it is still around 26 percent, well above the already elevated average of the past decade (Chart 19). Moreover, even if consumers wanted to borrow, credit availability is still constrained and underwriting standards remain relatively tight. Real consumer spending increased at a 2.25 percent annual rate over the second half of 2009 and looks to be growing at about that rate in the first quarter of 2010. Given that the personal saving rate is still relatively low, it will be hard for consumer spending to grow more quickly without large increases in real labor income. But big increases in real labor income won’t be possible without a much stronger recovery in output. And a much stronger recovery in output is unlikely without stronger consumption. Residential investment did increase over the second half of 2009, boosted by relatively low mortgage interest rates, lower home prices and the first-time home buyer tax credit.
Mohd Razif bin Abd Kadir: Malaysia’s life insurance industry Speech by Mr Mohd Razif bin Abd Kadir, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the official launch of Axa Affin Life Insurance Berhad, Kuala Lumpur, 30 January 2007. *  *  *  It is indeed an honour to be here this morning to witness the launching of Axa Affin Life Insurance Berhad. The launch of Axa Affin Life Insurance Berhad today marks an important development where two players from different financial industries, i.e. Affin Holding Bhd and Axa Asia Pacific Holding Ltd., forge a strategic alliance to attain synergy for mutual business advantage. I wish to congratulate both companies on this momentous event. Ladies and gentlemen, The financial landscape had undergone tremendous transformation in the last decade. The life insurance industry continues to sustain strong performance amidst challenges in a competitive environment. The evolution in the financial landscape saw a shift in customers' preference, emergence of more complex products and increasing diversity in delivery channels. The growing acceptance by the insuring public for financial protection in the form of insurance coverage has gained prominence especially for investment linked products which currently commands a market share of more than 40% of new business. This period also witnessed the growing importance of bancassurance as a channel for marketing life insurance products. The life business written via the bancassurance channel currently accounts for almost 50% of the new business written in the life insurance sector.

Threats to the global outlook began to intensify, driven primarily by the euro sovereign debt crisis and signs of continued fragility in the US economic recovery. Domestically, the devastating floods in the fourth quarter of last year caused severe disruptions to our agricultural and manufacturing industries in affected areas. With upside risks to inflation deemed to be contained, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed that there was room to address the heightened risk to growth and the policy rate was reduced by a total of 50 basis points over two meetings. The current rate of 3.00 percent was judged to be accommodative for domestic recovery as well as supportive of long-term economic stability. This is the story up to now. While the overall environment is improving, one cannot afford to be complacent. The events over the past few years has reminded us that things that seem under control can get out of hand very quickly. So, let me take you farther down the road of 2012–2013. I would like to focus on two key issues. The first concerns future challenges facing Thailand. The second then addresses the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s policy focus, going forward. First, on the challenges. On the external front, uncertainties surrounding the global recovery remain substantial. Major advanced economies are still grappling with structural weaknesses in their economies. Most prominent is the substantial debt-overhang. In the euro area, this is mainly in the form of sovereign debt. In the US, the problem lies primarily with private sector debt.
Food, Energy and Tobacco  2007  Services  Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Table 1: Contribution to Annual CPI Inflation (Percentage Points)  Energy  Food*  Tobacco**  Goods Excl. Food, Energy Tobacco Services  2007  1.57  3.42  0.87  0.24  2.28  2006  1.51  3.09  0.28  1.43  3.33  * Food: Food and non-alcoholic beverages ** Tobacco: Tobacco products and Alcoholic beverages. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Distinguished Guests, Elevated prices of crude oil, agricultural products and other commodities exert inflationary pressures all over the world. Recently, both the developed and emerging economies have been facing a rise in inflation. Inflation in Turkey followed a more favorable trend in 2007 compared to other emerging economies under inflation targeting, notwithstanding the administrative price hikes in November, which added by about 1-percentage point to the Turkish CPI inflation. During the past year, inflation in Turkey declined to 8.4 percent from 9.7 percent, while the average of inflation in emerging market economies under inflation targeting rose from 3.4 percent to 5.1 percent (Figures 4&5). Among the mentioned economies, only 4 countries experienced a decline in inflation in 2007, including Turkey, which recorded the highest rate of decline. In other words, Turkey was the country with the largest rate of decline in inflation, in comparison with other economies in this group.

Figure 2: Contribution to End-Year CPI Inflation (Percentage Share)  Average of 2004-2006  2007  Food* 24%  Others 30% Food* 41%  Others 49% Energy 17% Tobacco** 10%  Tobacco** 10% Energy  * Food: Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages ** Tobacco: Tobacco products and Alcoholic Beverages Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Another major factor slowing down the disinflation process in 2007 was the adverse developments in energy and administered prices. The crude oil price in December 2007 was nearly 50 percent above the levels registered at the end of 2006. This development, together with the changes in special consumption tax on fuel products, led to a significant rise in prices of fuel-oil products in 2007. Meanwhile, another energy item, housing water prices, which is administered by municipalities, edged up in the last quarter of 2007, partly owing to the drought conditions. Overall, 1.6 points of the headline inflation resulted from the energy price hikes, where the contribution of administered component outweighs that of the oil price (Table 1). While food, energy and tobacco products displayed significant increases in 2007, the fast pace of disinflation in services and core goods excluding food, energy and tobacco in 2007, confirms that supply side shocks were mainly responsible for the breach of the uncertainty band (Figure 3). 2  BIS Review 20/2008  Figure 3: Subcomponents of CPI (Annual Percentage Change)  20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0  2006  Energy  Food*  Tobacco**  Goods Excl.
This feel-good factor is adding momentum to the UK housing market. Businesses, too, have rediscovered their mojo. Surveys of output intentions are close to record highs. Quarterly employment growth is running at its fastest rate since the series began. Surveys of skills shortages point to the possibility of upwards, if localised, wage pressures. Output growth in 2014 Q1 is nearly 1% higher, and unemployment rate close to 1 percentage point lower, than the Bank expected last August. If history is any guide, these errors tend to be positively correlated, upside as well as down. Yet at the same time, the inflationary risks posed by such a scenario should not be overstated. As output and unemployment have surprised on the upside by 1%, average wages and inflation have surprised by the same amount on the downside. Real wage growth has been positive in only six months in the past six years. And inflation expectations remain well anchored to the inflation target. Inflationary ghosts are hard to find. A third uncertainty concerns the financial side of the economy. Global appetite for risk is, at present, voracious. Measures of financial market uncertainty are at or below pre-crisis levels across a range of asset classes. Many asset prices have rocketed and spreads plummeted. Two years ago, yields on Italian and Spanish debt were around five percentage points above US Treasuries. Today, they are 30–40 basis points below. Yields on corporate bonds, both high and low grade, are close to all-time lows.

Strong and Simple Speech given by Sam Woods, Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive Officer, Prudential Regulation Authority  Mansion House, London Thursday 12 November 2020  I am very grateful to Thomas Papavranoussis, Hannah Schraer, and the Strong and Simple team for their help in preparing this speech. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  Introduction  I am reliably informed that following my last Mansion House speech the chair of one of our banks was so enraged that I had spent ten minutes talking about credit unions that they nearly choked on their beef fillet. This, arguably, did not advance the PRA’s objective of safety and soundness. So it’s a very good thing that this year the Lord Mayor has introduced new safety measures by removing all food from this event. You will, however, still need a strong dose of caffeine in order to make it to the end of my speech. I’m also delighted to join the Lord Mayor in welcoming Nikhil to this event. Nikhil and I have known each other for a long time. I’m sure he will be a great leader of the FCA and I’m confident that with him at the helm the two regulators will continue to work well together. Now, coming back to those credit unions – the reason for the chair’s anger was that I announced that we would bring in a radical simplification of capital requirements for credit unions, but didn’t announce anything on banks.