samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Thus, having fallen for a period, product prices for industrial goods also began to rise towards the end of 2003 although the rate of increase stopped at 1 per cent in 2004. Since the latter half of the 1990s labour costs per hour in the Swedish manufacturing sector have risen at a somewhat diminishing rate. Coupled with high productivity growth, this has resulted in sharply falling unit labour costs (Chart 6). That contributed to a slight rise on average in profit margins in the manufacturing sector last year as well, despite the fact that the increase in intermediate goods prices did not completely pass through to product prices. BIS Review 25/2005  3  Stiffer competition, partly due to low prices of imported goods, increased import penetration, i.e. a higher share of imported goods in total consumption, and new foreign players in the Swedish market may have contributed to the high productivity growth and the low producer price inflation for domestically produced goods. Producer prices for imported goods Import prices for consumer goods have fallen since the end of 2002 (Chart 4). Import prices in Swedish kronor are determined by the price developments and price level in the countries from which we import, how large a share we import from each country and developments in the exchange rate. The krona has strengthened more or less continuously from its weak level at the end of 2001, and this of course has contributed to the fall in import prices in recent years (Chart 7).

Goods in consumer and producer channel 7  7 Consumer goods, producer prices (HM PI)  6 5  5  Consumer goods, import prices (IM PI)  4  6  4  Goods CPI  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2  -3  -3  -4 jan-98 Jan 98  jan-99 Jan 99  jan-00 Jan 00  jan-01 Jan 01  jan-02 Jan 02  jan-03 Jan 03  jan-04 Jan 04  -4 jan-05 Jan 05  Note. 12-month changes in per cent. Inflation measures computed according to Statistics Sweden’s new method. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  5. Product price, intermediate goods and profit margin in Swedish manufacturing sector 6  20  5  18  4  16  3  14  2  12  1  10  0  8  -1  6  -2  4  -3  Intermediate goods  Product price  Profit margin level (right scale)  -4  2 0  1995  1997  1999  2001  2003  Note. Intermediate goods and product price are annual percentage changes, profit margin is the level in per cent of the value of gross output. Source: National Institute of Economic Research. BIS Review 25/2005  9  6.
The euro area might have fallen apart and that would have been a catastrophe. The ECB therefore did what it had to do, but monetary policy cannot resolve all problems. We have always said that politicians have to do their job. They must carry out structural reforms, reduce government debt and create a more flexible labour market. That would contribute to a smoothly functioning economy. Owing to ECB policy, interest rates are extremely low, there’s no longer any return on savings. So people are tempted to take more risks with their money, by buying shares or real estate for example. This pushes up prices and may give rise to bubbles that suddenly burst, resulting in serious financial disasters. Is that a real danger? Absolutely, that is an important point. The ECB’s policy undoubtedly has unintended consequences. In some countries, there is a risk that real estate prices or some equity and other financial markets are increasing in a way that is too rapid or artificial. We are keeping a close watch on that and interventions to avoid bubbles are possible if need be. The emergence of bubbles is a justified concern. But if the ECB were not pursuing its current policy, the financial concerns would be even more serious because the economy would be in poorer shape. When and how are we going to move back towards normal interest rate levels? What needs to happen before the ECB will start to discontinue its exceptional policy?

The greatest challenge to these emerging markets is how to achieve a more balanced and sustainable growth in the midst of globalisation. As more economies in the region move to the middle-income category, I urge the Bank to proactively consider ways and means to help them meet the new challenges of changing times. Sustainability of the region’s future growth seems to lie in the growing trend of intra-regional trade and economic interdependence. Asia is highly integrated in trade. Propelled by vertical integration of the production process, intra-regional trade grew by 14% a year between 1995 and 2003, while world exports increased only 7.5%. Compared to trade, integration in the financial sector has been progressing at a much slower pace. As a result, the very substantial volume of foreign reserves accumulated in the region, of some $ billion last year alone, goes mainly to the developed rather than the regional markets. When some of the capital from the developed market is recycled back to the region, it is of a more volatile and repercussive nature, and can be difficult to cope with as we saw it in the late 1990s. To reduce the reliance on the recycling of domestic savings through the developed markets, Asian governments have put in place several initiatives to strengthen financial intermediation. A notable example is the Asian Bond Markets Initiative under the ASEAN+3 forum.
Higher interest rates, the high exchange rate, and lower international shipping costs will also contribute to this. By the end of 2022, it will be reduced by more than 2pp of GDP —accumulating 6.3% in the year— and by 2023 it will be between 3% and 4% of GDP. Measured at trend prices, the deficit reduction will also be rapid and significant: from around 9% in 2021 to around 3% in 2023. (figure 12). The external impulse to the Chilean economy will be reduced mainly due to less favorable financial conditions and terms of trade, along with lower global demand. The central scenario anticipates that the Fed's monetary policy will contract somewhat further, and for a longer period of time, than the Fed announced in the June Fed dots, which will result in long-lasting restrictive international financial conditions. This is the main factor behind the lower growth forecast for our trading partners, which will be at 2.6% this year and next. Copper price will also fall short of previous estimates, averaging around $ per pound next year. $ in June) (figure 13). This projection considers no changes in the structural parameters. The Chilean economy has been stricken by important shocks in the last couple of years and the levels of uncertainty about their medium-term extent are significant. This has made it complex to evaluate their implications for estimating the structural parameters. In any case, even considering the current degrees of uncertainty, these parameters will be evaluated in the December Monetary Policy Report.

Up to now payments for over 14 thousand businesses and over 93 thousand households, totalling more than BGN 9 billion, have been suspended , which really and considerably eases the financial conditions during the hardest time of the crisis. The crisis has moved the external financing conditions issue to the top of the agenda. You know that the crisis triggered the accumulation of deficits which must be financed and the required financial buffers must be maintained. Therefore, we had to give an additional signal to markets and investors that Bulgaria stays stable in the crisis in terms of its financial position and its 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  monetary regime. This signal was given with the EUR 2 billion swap line set up between the European Central Bank and the Bulgarian National Bank, and it has been read unequivocally as a positive one by markets, rating agencies, and investors alike. I want to point out one very important thing – the conclusion about Bulgaria’s strong financial position remains valid now, despite the developments in the last months. A drastic change of this direction would be a mistake with serious repercussions. All measures so far pursued in relation to the banking sector, which I believe were successful and timely, do not, in any way, diminish our concern of what is happening and is going to happen in the coming months.
Once again, careless lending became one of the causes of a crisis in the financial system. A factor worth mentioning in connection with the crisis of the 1990s is the role of the finance companies. The credit regulations had gradually creating a breeding ground for a "grey"  2  BIS Review 135/2009  credit market. The less strictly-regulated finance companies had been given room to expand by providing loans to the rapidly-expanding construction and property markets. The financial companies largely financed themselves in the short term by issuing so-called commercial papers on the money market. When the property market folded, it was also a financial company, Nyckeln, which in September 1990 was the first to throw in the towel when it could not renew its funding. Other financial companies then followed suit. Many of the financial companies were owned by the banks. And the banks were tied by both formal and informal commitments to these finance companies. The fact that a large part of the banks' exposures to the property sector were indirect in this way concealed the real extent of the banks' loan losses for a long time. When the losses of the finance companies subsequently appeared on the balance sheets of the banks in 1991, it became clear that the banks also had serious problems. The bank crisis had become a reality. Many of us remember the consequences for the real economy.

Instead, the value of the notes was set, for instance, by royal decree, that is the king or queen simply decreed what value the notes should have. Such money is sometimes called ”fiat money”. This is money that has no link whatsoever to metals or other material objects. Faith in such money must thus be created in some other way. We can view money as a "good" with special properties. It can be used to pay for things and it has a special information value, it is a measuring stick that makes it possible to compare prices. It also acts as a means of preserving value, it can be stored and saved to be used for future consumption. It is in this context that price stability comes into the picture. If inflation rockets, the money we have saved loses purchasing power. It was therefore quite natural  BIS Review 135/2009  1  that the central banks – when they were eventually given the monopoly for issuing notes – were also given the task of safeguarding price stability. In Sweden, the state, in the form of the Riksbank, first acquired the sole right to issue notes in 1903. One of the reasons the Riksbank was given this sole right was the desire to create a uniform and stable payment system. Previously, the banks had been able to fund their operations by issuing their own notes. However, when a bank went bankrupt its notes became worthless.
And even when such information disclosure requirements are successfully imposed in a particular market in a particular jurisdiction, and regulatory measures put in place, would there not be the danger of the market migrating offshore? Market participants are quite willing to take advantage of opportunities for disclosure or regulatory arbitrage that individual offshore centres may be keen in introducing so as to attract business. These are among the questions now being asked in international discussions. The task of achieving greater transparency in international finance is no doubt a difficult one, but it is in the interests of all developed and emerging markets - to support this initiative, to light up the dark room. And without going into the technical details, let me say this: with adequate international cooperation, involving all 5  BIS Review 120/1999  the significant financial centres, this is achievable. Regulatory authorities from these centres may just have to be a little more forceful. They could collectively say that these are the disclosure rules we have laid down on the basis of international consensus, under the auspices of an authoritative institution on international finance. * They could further emphasise that the disclosure rules are essential safeguards for systemic stability in international finance that is in the interests of all.

We try to fulfil this objective by setting interest rates at a level that enables the general level of demand to grow in line with what the economy is able to sustain in the long run without giving rise to inflation, and that ensures that economic agents have confidence in the Bank to meet the inflation target. So we only have an indirect influence on the general level of demand and employment. And the poorer than expected employment conditions in the past two years have not been due to developments in demand. On the contrary, demand has proved surprisingly strong. Nonetheless it can of course be maintained that employment could have been somewhat higher if the Riksbank had kept interest rates lower, something that would have been possible given what we now know about inflation. It is difficult to object to this assertion, which of course is why the Riksbank’s critics keep coming back to it. But an assessment of what we could or could not have done must be based on what we knew when the decisions were made, not on what we know now. One way to try to approach this issue is to compare our assessments and actions with other players’ forecasts and opinions on policy at the time in question.
14/17  Regarding the Spanish economy, the latest forecasts of the Banco de España, published some days ago, indicate that, although GDP is expected to decelerate somewhat, it will continue growing above potential and the output gap will hence become progressively more positive. This is therefore the time to reduce some of the structural vulnerabilities of our economy, derived partly from high external and public sector debt, which limit the room for manoeuvre of fiscal policy and increase vulnerability to rising interest rates or risk premia. The financial cycle of the Spanish economy also seems to be gathering impetus, although according to our forecasts, some time will pass before it reaches the warning levels. Total credit to the non-financial private sector has begun to increase, albeit very slightly, and it continues to decrease as a proportion of GDP, albeit at a progressively slower pace. Only some specific portfolios, such as consumer lending, show high credit growth, so banks must tighten their credit standards in order to reduce the significant rise in NPLs being observed. 15/17  However, the largest credit portfolio continues to be mortgage loans. Therefore analysis of the real estate sector is crucial for financial stability. As I have noted on other occasions, this market is reawakening, with an increase in transactions and rising house prices which, even so, are still on our estimates at levels compatible with their fundamentals.

In addition, cost pressures in many countries are moderate after several years of high unemployment and low wage growth. Chart: Money market rates for trading partners The low level of inflation has led central banks to implement further monetary policy easing over the past year. Policy rates are now negative in a number of countries. In addition, several central banks have introduced other instruments to stimulate economic activity and mitigate the risk of deflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) has expanded its asset purchase programme to include government bonds. The Riksbank, the central bank of Sweden, introduced a government bond purchase programme at the beginning of last year. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate for the first time in nine years in  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  December 2015. Trading partners’ policy rates can be expected to remain low for a long period ahead. External developments influence the Norwegian economy through several channels: through demand for Norwegian goods and services, through financial markets and the exchange rate and, not least, through commodity prices. Chart: Oil prices The fall in oil prices began in summer 2014 and continued through 2015. Oil prices have picked up again somewhat in recent months to just over USD 45 per barrel, but are still at less than half of their pre-fall level. Futures prices have also decreased in the past year. These prices now indicate only a moderate rise in oil prices ahead.
The HKMC runs on commercial principles and its main role is to offer financial products that would facilitate market development as well as achieve desirable social objectives. The core products offered by the HKMC include the purchase of mortgage loans from banks for securitization, the Mortgage Insurance Programme to help eligible homebuyers with their down payments, and the SME Financing Guarantee Scheme that supports SME financing by banks. In addition, two HKMC products, the first one launched in 2011 and the second one a few months ago, are of particular relevance to the financial wellbeing of the retirees. Reverse Mortgage 5. The first retirement protection product is the Reverse Mortgage Programme, which enables homeowners to convert or monetize the equity in their self-occupied homes into guaranteed monthly payouts over 10, 15, 20 years or for life, while still enjoying the use of the properties. For example, a married couple at the age of 65 with a property value of $ million would get a guaranteed payment of $ per month for life and be able to live in the property for life. There is no need for them to worry about repayment at all. Their monthly payouts are guaranteed for life even if the value of the property falls in subsequent years, or the interest rates rise significantly, or the couple enjoys very long life.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth had slowed from 5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, to 3.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and to only 1.7 percent in the second quarter. Soft patches are common in expansions, but are difficult to distinguish from a more serious deterioration in an expansion. Examples of soft patches include the expansions of 1976 and 2002 (Chart 24). Foreign risks also appeared on the radar screen with growing concerns about debt sustainability in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. This can be seen in the sharp rise in the sovereign risk spreads for these countries (Chart 25). At the same time, core consumer price index (CPI) inflation, which is used as an indicator of where overall inflation is heading, was low and trending downward (Chart 26). Given the FOMC’s dual mandate to promote price stability and maximum sustainable growth, the risk of a double-dip recession in 2011 was a concern. In more normal times, the FOMC could respond to this risk by deciding to reduce the fed funds rate. However, with the fed funds rate essentially at zero, other options had to be considered. At their November meeting, the FOMC decided to restart its large-scale asset purchases by announcing an intention to purchase an additional $ billion in Treasury securities. Again, as with its earlier asset purchase program, the intent was to improve financial market conditions and thereby reduce the risk of the economy stalling.
Although the first small signs of success are apparent, we must still remain vigilant about the accompanying risks. Above all there is the moral hazard that would emerge were some government to lose its appetite for reform. The falls in interest rates provoked by the massive purchases of bonds will lower interest rates temporarily on government borrowing and this must not be used as an argument for pushing vital but painful reforms to some point far off in the future. Interest rates are only favourable for a short time and will support governments while they are making  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  changes. If governments were to ignore the budget rules agreed in Europe and were to start to increase their debts further, the measures taken by central banks would be of very little help. The other main task occupying central banks alongside monetary policy last year was the launch of single banking supervision. Starting supervision and carrying out a thorough and comprehensive assessment of the assets of European banks needed a lot of work from central banks and financial supervision authorities. The successful conclusion of this work let us say with confidence that the biggest and most significant banks in a range of countries in Europe are now assessed and supervised on the same terms. In Estonia, Swedbank and SEB Pank have come under single supervision.

This was in the 70s. If you think of the iconic figures who have been on the Central Bank staff, they were legendary figures in this country. I don’t want to mention any names because I might miss some out but you just look back through the history of the Central Bank and you see some great names, people who have made massive contributions to this country. So I wanted to be part of that narrative and so I came back and started life as a probationary staff officer of the Central Bank. And I must tell you, when I was working for the Commonwealth Secretariat, almost for twenty years as Dr. Nandalal said, obviously one travels around. There are 54 members of the Commonwealth and I have been to many countries. And invariably there are various occasions when you are introduced. I was always introduced by saying I started my career in the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and that was a great source of pride, to be able to say that I started my working life in this institution, and I continue to be enormously proud that I was part of this staff of this great institution for fifteen years. So in a way, it is coming the full cycle. It’s like coming back home after a long absence. It is a great pleasure, privilege and an honour to be able to come back.