samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Jean-Pierre Danthine: Credit – is the sky the limit? Introductory remarks by Mr Jean-Pierre Danthine, Vice Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva, 16 April 2013. *  *  *  I would like to thank Claudia Strub and Till Ebner for their very valuable support in drafting this speech and for the underlying analysis of the topic. I would also like to thank Robert Bichsel for his helpful comments. 1. Introduction  The Swiss Federal Council has recently decided to activate the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) acting on a proposal by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The key feature of this new tool is to counter the “pro-cyclical” behavior of financial institutions whose collective action can be a source of systemic risk. To this end it requires banks to temporarily increase the level of capital they must hold as a backing for mortgage loans on residential property. In doing this, Switzerland is one of the first countries to make effective use of a tool advocated by the international community as a means for preemptively dealing with cyclical risks to financial stability. What was the motivation for activating this instrument? The main goal of the CCB is to increase the resilience of financial institutions against the background of imbalances in the domestic mortgage credit and housing markets that have been building up gradually over the last several years.

For instance, a structural low interest rate level such as typically observed in Switzerland can help explain a relatively high credit-to-GDP ratio in international comparison. Similarly a prolonged period of exceptionally low rates such as the one we are currently experiencing is a potential explanation for an increase in credit volumes. At a superficial level this relation is obvious. Low interest rates reduce the cost of servicing a given credit which becomes affordable for a broader range of households. Alternatively, borrowers can afford higher credit lines. Moreover, low interest rates translate into higher asset prices and higher notional wealth. The increased collateral values support higher credit lines and decrease the amount of credit rationing. This is, in particular, relevant with  6  Stiglitz, J. and Weiss, A. (1981)  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  reference to the real estate market where higher house prices imply higher mortgage volumes to finance the same stock of housing. The rationality of this explanation has to be relativized, however. This is certainly the case if we think of credit financing long run projects such as real estate. Here the average interest rate over the life-time of the credit must be relevant for investment decisions. An exceptional, prolonged period of low rates might imply a decrease in the lifetime average rate, a form of “window of opportunity”.
The more daunting problems we face of bringing our healthcare and social security commitments and resources into balance come later and are less acute than those facing most other large mature economies. These facts provide some perspective but they are not a compelling argument for deferring policy action to address them. Another argument for perspective is that our current account deficit reflects in part the relative attractiveness of the United States as a place for the world to invest its apparently ample present supply of savings. It is true that much of the cause of our imbalance seems to lie in optimism about future U.S. economic performance reflected in the willingness of non-Americans to put their savings to work here rather than in their own countries or in Europe or Japan. In this sense, our external deficit may reflect relative strength, rather than weakness. This argument would be more reassuring if we were facing a lower and more sustainable current account deficit. And it would be more powerful if the capital inflows that are the counterpart of our  2  BIS Review 25/2005  current account imbalance were going to finance private rather than public investment, and if a larger share of those flows were private rather than official. Another argument that is important to weighing the risk in running an external imbalance of this magnitude is the very large increase in the share of the world’s savings that now seem to move more comfortably across borders.

But I am thoroughly convinced that in practice, in the financial sector and in society in general, we must respect the rules and behave ethically – even when we are respecting the rules. A number of cases that have recently made the headlines have also shown that citizens and customers alike are becoming increasingly demanding in this regard. Adopting the same reasoning, Paul Dembinski likes to quote Ricoeur's broader definition of ethics as "a wish for a fulfilled life – with and for others – in just institutions". 1. From this perspective, what is at stake is more than a simple contrast, but the sound balance and dynamic tension between compulsory rules and enduring, freely adopted ethics. There can be no doubt that the financial sector needs rules. This is not just a question of an activity that involves intermediation between different parties – each of which must be convinced that the rules are being properly applied – but it is also a question of managing risks, while protecting the interests of customers and policyholders. Financial instability also has substantial externalities on the economy, and on social cohesion through unemployment. The recent financial crises have brought the failings of the financial system into focus, not forgetting the impact of new technologies, such as high frequency trading, FinTechs, or crypto-assets. But rules have their limitations.
The framework could not be implemented while the US remained neutral in the War, and the Federal Reserve Act prevented the provision of accounts to a foreign power. But within little more than a year, both obstacles had been removed. The Bank’s Court of Directors ratified the agreement in May 1917 – and the accounts were opened shortly afterwards. In the years that followed, Strong and Norman used these financial foundations to build a much broader conception of central bank co-operation, summarised in their 1921 ‘General Principles of Central Banking’. 7  Many of those principles, including the merits of operational independence for central banks, the need for appropriate supervision of financial institutions, and the importance of balancing national and international interests in the development of policy, show extraordinary foresight and remain highly relevant today. Days Present: correspondent banking services at the Bank of England today  Much has changed since those days, of course. World War 1 brought about a profound shift in the balance of global financial power, setting the US dollar on its ascent to top slot. Strong and Norman’s beloved gold standard ended ignominiously in the Great Depression. And even its post-World War 2 successor – the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates – is long gone.

Yiu-kwan Choi: Basel II implementation in Asia Introductory remarks by Mr Yiu-kwan Choi, Deputy Chief Executive (Banking) of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the BCBS/FSI/EMEAP: Basel II Implementation in Asia, Hong Kong, 17 October 2007. *  *  *  Dear colleagues, Good morning. On behalf of the HKMA, I would like to extend a very warm welcome to you all here today to take part in this outreach event organized jointly by the Basel Committee, the FSI and EMEAP, focusing on the IRB validation aspect of the Basel II framework. The event coincides with one of the regular meetings of the Validation Subgroup of the Basel Committee’s Accord Implementation Group, which was held here over the last two days. The Validation Subgroup, or the AIGV as it is commonly called, is one of three subgroups under the AIG that share information and discuss specific issues related to Basel II implementation. The AIGV specifically explores issues related to the validation of systems used to generate the ratings and parameters that serve as inputs into the internal ratingsbased approach to credit risk. The AIGV has done some excellent work, using the regular AIGV meetings as an information dissemination platform for members of this Subgroup to explore various IRB validationrelated issues. The AIGV has also published several high quality supervisory guidance papers covering topics on validation of low-default portfolios, use of vendor products, use test and control expectations for validation under the Basel II IRB framework.
11  While the positive unconditional correlation between average firm-level mark-ups and concentration at the sector level shown in Chart 4 is not statistically significant, a regression of individual firm-level mark-ups on market concentration in their sector (at the two-digit SIC level) shows a statistically significant positive relationship when we include firm and time fixed effects. 12 For example, Díez et al (2018) find that the majority of industries in the US have seen mark-ups rise since 1980. 13 Díez et al (2018) find that the increase in US mark-ups since 1980 is also relatively broad-based across sectors. 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  6  This fattening of the upper tail of the mark-up distribution is not uniform across sectors. Chart 10 plots a measure of the skew of the mark-up distribution across different sectors over time. The fattening of the upper tail of the distribution is most pronounced in the ICT, transport and storage and manufacturing sectors, each of which is associated with higher average levels of mark-up. In understanding the characteristics of these firms, one revealing cut comes from taking into the account the extent to which UK-based firms’ sales are domestic or foreign-focussed (Chart 11). While both categories have seen their mark-ups rise somewhat, this has been far larger among firms selling predominantly into foreign markets (almost 60 percentage points) than domestic markets (around 15 percentage points).

BIS Review 115/2006  5  Hence, the Albanian banking system is presented as safe, sound, under a constant reformation and consolidation process, passing into a qualitatively new stage, which will provide the business and bank customers with a modern banking service that aims at achieving the levels and standards of Western banks. 6  BIS Review 115/2006
Heng Swee Keat: Achieving good regulatory outcomes – the way forward Welcome speech by Mr Heng Swee Keat, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the 16th International Conference of Banking Supervisors, Singapore, 22 September 2010. *  *  *  1. Good morning. My colleagues and I at the Monetary Authority of Singapore are delighted to welcome you to Singapore, and to the 16th International Conference of Banking Supervisors (ICBS). We are honoured to join the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) as organisers of the conference. Looking back on the crisis 2. When we last met in Brussels in September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a tail-spin in the global financial system. The global economic outlook was then grim. Decisive policy action has averted the worst scenarios of the crises, and the overall situation has improved significantly. Still, financial vulnerabilities and uncertainty over the pace of global economic recovery remain. 3. This year’s ICBS comes at a critical juncture. In the last two years, all of us, as national financial authorities, have undertaken extensive reviews to enhance the resilience of our financial systems. Globally, the FSB and IMF have been working to forge agreement on measures to prevent and mitigate a crisis of such systemic proportions. In particular, the Basel Committee under the leadership of Governor Nout Wellink has been at the forefront of devising a new regulatory framework that underpins and fosters a more resilient global banking system. 4.

The form of government was unstable, the payment system was rather chaotic and there was a general shortage of credit facilities. People who wanted to try something new found themselves restricted. Many saw no alternative to emigrating and trying their luck in America. It seems that more than a million people left Sweden for the new country in the west before the process of industrialisation began in earnest here. Less than a hundred years later, at the end of the 19th century, the Swedish economy had undergone a dramatic transformation. Inflation was low and the payment system functioned properly. The country vibrated with energy in every sphere. An impressive number of new products were developed on the basis of Swedish inventions and many of them became world leaders. Swedish financial experts were involved early on in exploiting the innovations. More and more people found work, living standards rose and Sweden achieved one of the highest growth rates in the world. When it comes to the causes of Sweden’s rapid economic transformation, there are some differences of opinion. The industrialisation taking place elsewhere was probably a major factor. Another was the possibility of importing capital for large investments. Domestic reforms in key areas may also have helped create the conditions for growth. Price stability was presumably of some significance. Low, stable inflation reduces uncertainty about the future for those who have to plan for the long term.
Macedonia had its glory days during the build-up of its ancient empire ending with the sudden death of the Alexandar III of Macedonia (also known as Alexander the Great). Afterwards, the Romans established the province of Macedonia, which in time of Diocletian was divided between Macedonia Prima ("first Macedonia", on the south) and Macedonia Secunda ("second Macedonia" on the north). Most of the country's modern boundaries fell within the latter, with the city of Stobi as its capital. We will have the opportunity to take a brief look on this period of the Macedonian ancient history on Wednesday afternoon, when we take you to visit Stobi archeological site. The history of Macedonia later on was influenced by other great empires in which the country was part of, creating a treasury-trove of Byzantine, Slav and Turkish history, with a host of forgotten monasteries, mosques and castles. After the II World War, the Republic of Macedonia was one of the six republics that have formed Yugoslav Federation. As sovereign parliamentary democracy, we have gained our independence in 1991, and the monetary independence in 1992, with Denar as a national currency. Part of the rich history of Macedonia can be seen in Skopje, the capital city of the country. In that respect, the old fortress Kale, that overlooks the modern city center, offers an insight in the first Neolithic settlements, while Old Bazaar, with its narrow streets and craftsman shops, is a snapshot of the Ottoman rule.

This part of the city survived the 1963 earthquake, when nearly all the city's beautiful neoclassical 18th and 19th century buildings were destroyed. After the earthquake, international financial aid poured into Skopje in order to rebuild the city. Today, Skopje is seeing a makeover in buildings, streets and shops, and many projects (Macedonian Struggle Museum, the Archeological Museum of Macedonia, National Archive, Constitutional Court, New Philharmonic Theatre) were finished in order to return some of the looks and spirit of the city. In economic aspect, being many times since 2006 on the list of 10 best reformers by the Doing Business rank of the World Bank, proves that Macedonia has undergone considerable economic reforms. It has developed as an open economy with the trade accounting more  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  than country's GDP in recent years. Although the environment was highly difficult, first with the global financial crisis, afterward with euro area crisis and more recently, with Greece crisis, our GDP growth was on average above 3% for whole this period, which is one of the highest in Europe, and for 2015 it is expected to be around 3.5%. The unemployment from a very high level, throughout this period is on declining path, by implementing many structural reforms and ALMP. The government strategy to attract foreign investments and establishment of a good business environment for the development of small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs) was paid off.
Even if banks are successful at tackling their internal Year 2000 concerns, they may still face risks from critical services that they receive from vendors. In addition, banks should assess their credit exposures to customers that face significant Year 2000 challenges of their own. I hope that all financial organizations sufficiently address the Year 2000 conversion in time to limit possible disruptions. If they do not, we will find it increasingly difficult to deal with the issues arising from deficient organizations over the course of 1999. There will likely be some chance that vigorous catch-up efforts on their part will allow them to avert serious problems. On the other hand, the closer the time until January 2000, the more difficult it will be for the customers of that firm to find an alternative provider of financial services. Many banks already are indicating that they will be reluctant to take on new wholesale customers in the latter half of 1999. To avoid this bottleneck, supervisors need to take all possible steps to identify firms whose progress to date has been insufficient, and to pressure them to adopt a plan that will address their Year 2000 problems. BIS Review 85/1998  -6-  Inevitably, however, supervisors may face difficult enforcement issues during 1999 regarding those institutions that are not making appropriate progress.

The New York Fed has hosted a series of informal meetings in New York bringing together banks, securities firms, settlement systems, insurance companies and regulators to help each understand better the perspectives of others around the table. The New York Fed also is participating in joint efforts with several industry associations that focus on Year 2000 contingency planning and on testing. For these two issues, in particular, it is critical that an active dialogue be established between the public and private sectors. The final element of cooperation needed for an effective approach to Year 2000 is cross-industry cooperation. Most financial market participants are not accustomed to gathering extensive information from other industries, such as the telecommunications industry. Yet financial firms, among others, depend critically on the proper functioning of sectors such as transportation, electric power generation, and government services. In the absence of cooperation and coordination, the lack of information flowing across sectors can create serious obstacles to achieving successful Year 2000 outcomes. Errors of omission in coordinating your efforts broadly can be far more significant than you might realize. Based on our experience in the United States, the creation of a government body to assist in coordinating preparations can play an important role. In the United States, the President’s Council on the Year 2000 Conversion has been active in promoting cross-industry discussions and tracking the progress of different industries. Governments in other countries such as Australia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom have also implemented national Year 2000 strategies.
Softening price pressures and a potentially faster roll-out of projects under the Recovery and Resilience Facility, among other factors, should help sustain activity growth over the rest of the year. Similar growth rates are projected for 2024 (2.2%) and 2025 (2.1%), albeit underpinned by the recovery in private consumption and less so by the contribution of net external demand, which was the main growth driver in 2023. 2  Compared with those published in March, these projections revise GDP growth for 2023 up by 0.7 pp, essentially due to stronger output growth in the year to date and the revision to the data for 2022. The growth projected for 2024 is revised down slightly (by 0.1 pp), while that for 2025 remains unchanged. Inflation stood at 2.9% in May 2023, 7.8 pp off its July 2022 peak. This correction has essentially been driven by the drop in the energy component. However, in the second quarter there has also been a slowdown in both food prices (particularly those of oil, bread and cereals, and dairy products) and underlying inflation, which has fallen by 1.4 pp from its peak in February. Within underlying inflation, there has been notable easing in, for instance, transport and, more recently, housing, recreation, hospitality and tourism. According to our projections, headline inflation will average 3.2% this year and increase to 3.6% in 2024, mainly as a result of the expected withdrawal of the measures deployed to combat the effects of inflation. It will then decline in 2025, falling to 1.8%.

While we were initially less optimistic about buy-side adoption relative to the sell-side, our outreach efforts have indicated that once the buy-side sees the benefits the Code brings, they become enthusiastic adopters. The third reason why this Code will be different, is that it was developed by an unprecedented public-private partnership, and will be kept relevant over time. The development process for the Code was an intense and inclusive one, involving the participation of a wide range of market participants. Hence, we expect strong buy-in from market participants. This partnership also recognises the importance of keeping the Code relevant over time. Moving forward, the Code will be collectively owned and maintained by the local Foreign Exchange Committees (or FXCs), through the Global Foreign Exchange Committee (or the GFXC). The GFXC was launched in May this year, together with the publication of the Code. The GFXC, comprising members from key central banks and private sector market participants, will assess regularly if there are new market developments that should be included into the Code. It will also oversee a comprehensive review of the Code on a less frequent basis, keeping the Code relevant over time. Fourth, extensive outreach to market participants has been done and will continue. Over the past two years, extensive outreach was undertaken to more than 120 sell-side and buy-side industry associations, and key market infrastructure globally. The response has been positive. These efforts by the GFXC, central banks and local FXCs, to raise awareness and encourage adherence to the Code, will continue.