samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The period where inflation has been below the target has gradually become longer and longer. Even the more stable underlying inflation measure, where both interest-rate effects and volatile energy prices are excluded, has been below 2 per cent since January 2010 (see Figure 2). According to the Riksbank’s forecast, it is expected to reach this level again in autumn 2016, provided that monetary policy is very expansionary. This means nearly seven years below the target, at least five of which have been clearly below it. 9  Se for example Williams (2009), Blanchard et al. (2010), Calmfors (2013), Ball (2014), Krugman (2014), and Rosengren (2015). 10  See Côté (2014) and Kryvtsov and Mendes (2015). BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Figure 2 Inflation has been low for a long time Annual percentage change  Note: CPIF is CPI with fixed mortgage rate. Sources: SCB and the Riksbank. Once inflation had undershot the target for a while, inflation expectations began to fall. Economic agents did not expect inflation to meet the target even five years ahead. In other words, a risk began to build up that the role of the inflation target as a benchmark for pricesetting and wage formation would begin to weaken – that the nominal anchor that has been an important part of the favourable developments in Sweden since the 1990s crisis would no longer hold.

The main purpose was to explain that the Riksbank is not able to control inflation precisely in the short term, but that it aims to limit deviations from the target. The band was abolished in 2010 because the Riksbank then assessed that it no longer had a role to fill. In the memorandum published in connection with the decision, it was noted: “There is considerable understanding for the fact that inflation commonly deviates from the target and that the deviations are sometimes larger than 1 percentage point. Inflation can thus be outside of the tolerance band without threatening the credibility of the inflation target. Such deviations have proved to be a natural part of monetary policy.” 13 The view was therefore that even the relatively broad band of 1 to 3 per cent gave the appearance of excessive precision. However, as economic agents did not find it noteworthy that inflation was outside this band at times, the Riksbank felt it was not a problem. The tolerance band was thus a pedagogical tool intended to illustrate the uncertainty surrounding the inflation development. It was never intended to be a target range, i.e. that the target was actually 2 percentage points wide, and that inflation of marginally over 1 or just under 3 was as consistent with the target as inflation of 2 per cent. 14 This appears to be many people’s interpretation today, however.
Nevertheless, the strong demand in the ecosystem to provide innovative solutions convinced us of the interest of an experimental approach in this field. The way we experiment with CBDCs for wholesale transactions perfectly illustrates our choice to move from conceptual and academic considerations, to experiments in the field, hand in hand with market players, using a pragmatic, trial and error way of working. The goal is to determine i) how digital central bank money may improve the efficiency and fluidity of payment and settlement systems, ii) what are the most promising technologies and iii) whether it makes sense to make central bank money available to beneficiaries that do not have access to it yet. In May this year, we conducted a first successful and very promising experiment with Société Générale Forge, that enabled us to test the three steps of a digital transaction: the tokenisation of a security, the digital representation of central bank money on a private blockchain, and the settlement of a transaction on the security on the private blockchain. This led us to interface successfully a public with a private blockchain. Upcoming CBDC experiments – there will be eight of them – will help us to investigate not only the potential of technology but also to question the players in the ecosystem on what tomorrow’s landscape could look like, on subjects as fundamental as the methods of exchanging financial instruments for CBDCs, the improvement of the conditions for executing cross-border payments or new ways of making CBDCs available to financial sector players.

It is sometimes hard to explain where this inflow comes from, but it indicates that in the economy there are sources that generate income, that create savings potential, meaning, the savings, although maybe not sufficient, is still substantial in our country and that deposit growth is just below the one in the good years, but it is positive and continuous, which is encouraging. Does this mean that the banks are more focused on collecting capital, than releasing money in the economy in form of credits? We can state that the deposit growth is higher than the one in the last several years, but the deposit growth is also a reflection of lack of enough alternatives for investments. You know  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  that the stock exchange is in standstill, we don't have some other developed financial markets where the citizens can place their savings, so every savings is mainly placed in form of banks deposit. Despite the inflation slows down, in the last several months, according to the NBRM estimations, it seems that the banks restrain over landing. Is this an indicator for the unfavorable conditions in the economy, or on the market, or is it a try for further reduction of the inflation? No, the inflation is not an issue, since it is on quite moderate level, 2.8 percentages is the latest data for August and we expect average inflation of about 2.8 percentages for the entire year, there is no probability for inflationary pressures in the following period.
47  In Poland there has been no need so far to appoint a leading supervisor, as the links among financial entities do not indicate the existence of financial conglomerates under the said Act. 48  Simson B.A. “The future of central bank cooperation”, BIS Working Papers No 200, February 2006. 49  “Managing Payment Liquidity in Global Markets: Risk Issues and Solutions”, a report prepared by Cross-border Collateral Pool Task Force, New York, March 2003. BIS Review 60/2006  17  conducted in a manner that would enable to avoid the scenario of protectionism growth. After all, one of the greater threats which are difficult to evaluate is the risk of adjustment of global imbalances, especially where it results from market forces without support from adequate reforms. So far, globalization has served humanity well. I truly hope that the ever-greater knowledge of risk types related to globalization will make it possible for us to conduct economic policy that will facilitate benefiting from globalization to the future generations the homo sapiens globalus. Thank you very much for your attention. 18  BIS Review 60/2006

In addition, we have a surplus on the current account, which is tantamount to a surplus in the balance for the economy as a whole. Things look rather different in the USA. There, private sector saving has declined to –7 per cent of GDP, the household sector's burden of debt is at a record high level and the deficit on the current account balance is growing rapidly. Both American consumers and international investors have had strong confidence in the American economy's capacity to generate future income. USA central point in economic picture When it comes to the actual economic activity situation, interest is mainly focused on the USA, not least because of the low level of saving and the large build-up of debt described above. If American households were to rapidly increase their saving and reduce their consumption, and if foreign investors were to begin to feel hesitant over financing the current account deficit, there would be considerable consequences for the global economy. However, the American economic picture is still fragmented. It is true that the household sector's consumption is still at a high level and developments in the construction and residential sector are also satisfactory. Moreover, the large fall in the confidence indicators seems to have slown down, at least for the time being. But at the same time, industrial production is still weak, the inflow of orders is falling and the adjustment of stocks is moving unexpectedly slowly, particularly in the sensitive IT sector.
The situation in a number of financial markets was hampering the transmission of our monetary policy, a monetary policy stance that we had judged to be appropriate precisely the previous Thursday. That had to be put right. The exceptional circumstances demanded that we act swiftly. HB: What volume will the purchase programme have? Trichet: I do not provide any figures at the moment. HB: The markets would like to know in somewhat more detail how you intend to absorb the liquidity again. Trichet: Allow me to repeat myself: We are not changing our monetary policy stance. We are not embarking on quantitative easing. We will withdraw the liquidity that we will inject mainly through tendering term deposits. HB: Will that be possible? Trichet: Of course. It does not present technical difficulties. That is what we intend to do. And let me say, that what counts, is our determination and the fact that we are true to our primary mandate of safeguarding price stability. The Governing Council will not tolerate inflation. HB: Is Greece an isolated case? Could the same happen to other countries as well? Trichet: Greece was clearly in a unique exceptionally grave situation before it embarked on its adjustment programme. But I call solemnly upon all countries to implement programmes commensurate to recover sound fiscal situation. HB: What has to be done?

Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview in Handelsblatt Interview with Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, in Handelsblatt, Germany, conducted by Ms Marietta Kurm-Engels and Mr Andreas Hoffbauer on 12 May and published on 14 May 2010. *  *  *  Handelsblatt (HB): Mr Trichet, you intend to withdraw all of the liquidity that you are currently injecting into the markets via the purchase of government bonds. Do we have to face inflation in the euro area? Trichet: No, not at all. Price stability is our primary mandate and over the past 11½ years we fulfilled our mandate successfully. We have not changed our monetary policy stance. The additional liquidity that we are providing through the purchase of government bonds will be withdrawn again. Interest-bearing time deposits are an appropriate way to withdraw this liquidity. HB: What induced you to take this extraordinary step on Monday morning? You had made no mention whatsoever thereof at the press conference just three days earlier. Trichet: On Thursday afternoon and Friday, we were facing a situation that we regarded as fundamentally abnormal. That situation deteriorated abruptly, sharply and extensively. The very moment where the agreement was reached in Europe to provide Greece with financial support and the imminent decision of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to approve the Greek standby should have contributed on the contrary to ease tensions in the markets … HB: … which was not the case? Trichet: No, the contrary happened.
Database™ (Original version), April 2019. In this note, we will shed some light on the third issue, related to corporate profit margins. As discussed before, we will approximate the change in the profit margin as a difference between the GDP deflator and the change in the unit labor costs. Profit margins are thought to be pro-cyclical, with rising buffers during expansion, and their depletion during downturn, though this cannot be fully confirmed with the data that we have. What can be observed through the data is continuous downsizing of profit markups in the region since 2012, on average at around 1.3%. Apparently, the profitability position of the corporates was comfortable enough to allow for continuous compression across countries and time, thus absorbing the rise in ULCs without passing them through to prices. Despite the adjustment, according to the latest IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Europe, November 2019 the level of the corporate profitability for part of the region that we scrutinize, the NMSs in the EU, is assessed as comfortable at the current juncture. It seems that after-crisis, pass-through from the rising wages to inflation weakened. The IMF study in the REO, November 2019 reveals that inflation expectations, rising competition and profitability buffers can explain the broken link in the euro area and NMSs of the EU. According to our estimates, profitability buffers seem to play role in the region as a whole. This gives more comfort for the central bank  16  in pursuing an accommodative monetary policy.

These measures included tightening of debt service to income ratio (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) and/or loan to value ratio rule for housing loans (the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Slovenia), limits to the maximum maturity of consumer loans (Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) and more stringent risk weights on households loans (Poland, Slovenia, North Macedonia). Chart 9. Share of households with a DSTI above 40% (% of all indebted households and 90% confidence interval)  Source: Aleksandra Riedi “Household debt in CESEE economies: a joint look at macro- and micro-level data”, Focus on European Economic Integration, 2019, issue Q1/19  Recent OeNB study3 focusing on household debt in CESEE economies suggests that risks associated to households’ leverage have moderated post-crisis, but need monitoring in order to timely address potential vulnerabilities. The inference is based not purely on the level and dynamics, but some structural features as well, such as the currency and interest rate structure. Yet, estimated debt service to income ratio (DSTI) 4 for all households in all CESEE countries is below 40%, as commonly used threshold in the literature for potential vulnerabilities related to household debt burden. Debt service burden is lowest in Hungary and the Czech Republic, while Romania and Albania stand out as  3  Aleksandra Riedi “Household debt in CESEE economies: a joint look at macro- and micro-level data”, Focus on European Economic \Integration, 2019, issue Q1/19. The analysis uses macro-level data and data from the OeNB Euro Survey conducted in fall 2017.
Similarly, 3/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  when the unemployment rate breaches certain thresholds, payroll tax cuts could be triggered, helping to support the disposable income of workers facing reductions in hours. Payroll tax cuts also have the advantage of skewing more toward low- and moderate-income workers, who typically have a higher propensity to consume out of current income. Obviously, it is up to the incoming Administration and Congress to decide on the appropriate fiscal measures. But, the point that I want to highlight is that robust automatic fiscal stabilizers would complement monetary policy, and take some pressure off of the Federal Reserve to undertake extraordinary measures in situations where there is little scope for cutting short-term interest rates. This approach might also be superior to other proposals—such as raising the Federal Reserve’s inflation objective—that are designed to reduce the risk of monetary policy being trapped at the zero lower bound. For such fiscal actions to be sustainable over time, it is important that the United States retain sufficient fiscal capacity. This would also ensure that automatic fiscal stabilizers are viewed as fully credible. On this score, while significant progress has been made in recent years in stabilizing the country’s fiscal situation, circumstances are likely to grow more challenging in the years ahead. There are three areas that I would highlight.

There was, moreover, no departure from the Bank’s prudent approach to reserve management and the reserves remained well above the minimum statutory level. This was the case even during periods of rising international oil prices, which inflated the import bill, and in 2007 when the public started to convert Maltese lira holdings into euro and to hold on to euro earnings in anticipation of the change to the euro. Another favourable element during the ERM II phase was the comfortable surplus position on the capital and financial account, which more than offset the current account deficit. A combination of substantial inflows of FDI and inward portfolio investment flows provided strong support to the Maltese lira. The Central Bank of Malta’s credibility - based on its track record in delivering exchange rate and price stability - as well as the small size of Malta’s financial market probably also helped to ward off any unwanted attention. The absence of volatile short-term capital flows into and out of the country during this period supports this impression. Finally, Malta’s experience points to the importance of a shared vision between the government and the central bank on policy objectives, as well as of a holistic approach to achieving them. In this regard, the continued acceptance by economic operators of the need to support the fixed exchange regime facilitated the authorities’ task in imposing the fiscal and monetary discipline necessary to meet the nominal convergence criteria.
So, with the recovery momentum remaining firm but the risks to economic stability rising, the Monetary Policy Committee saw less need for maintaining low interest rates and felt that the monetary policy stance should be adjusted to give priority to economic stability, with the adjustment being gradually paced. This is essentially the rationale behind the decision on Wednesday by the Monetary Policy Committee to raise the policy interest rate by 25 basis points. At this juncture, many of you may wonder whether higher oil prices together with higher domestic interest rates might be too punitive to the health of the domestic economy. Let me say that we have looked carefully at this issue and are of the opinion that the growth momentum at this time is quite firm. Although the adverse effects an growth from higher domestic interest rates will be there, the effects will not be large to the extent that they will derail the ongoing momentum of recovery. This is because the fundamentals of the economy at present are quite good, and with a strong fiscal position, these two factors should allow the economy to flexibly adjust to the negative shocks without interrupting the momentum of growth. On the contrary, the early rise in domestic interest rates will help maintain macroeconomic stability which is cruial for sustaining economic growth in the medium term. Ladies and Gentlemen, A few weeks ago, I had the good fortune of visiting both Melbourne and Sydney and came across this concept of a cleanskin wine.

The more severe and tangible impact of climate change has raised awareness of people around the world, resulting in calls for new standards and regulations aimed at containing environmental externalities from businesses. Two good examples are the ban of fuel with high sulfur content for the shipping industry, and social calls for businesses to reduce the usage of single-use plastics. Naturally, adopting these higher standards comes with higher costs and it would serve businesses well to take this into account when designing new business models. For businesses taking these regulations passively, this will only mean higher costs and lower profits. However, the sustainable movement presents an incredible opportunity for businesses that can meet this demand. Consumers are now demanding more environmentally friendly products and services. According to a survey done by Nielsen, 66 percent of global consumers are willing to pay premium for environmentally friendly products. The number is even higher for younger generations. The concept of first-mover advantage also applies here, since those who could first systematically identify new environmentally friendly practice will set standard for the entire industry. 3. Changes in value chain The third trend I will highlight is the change in the global value chain. In discussing value chains, it is almost impossible to avoid thinking about the ongoing trade tensions that are suppressing the global economic sentiment. While the trade tensions might prove to be short-lived, they have distorted value chains and engraved a long-lasting impact on global production through trade diversion and production relocation.
Moreover, it intends to allow already established companies or start-ups that aim to provide payment services to be involved in other business activities allowing them to diversify the business risk and freedom to grow. Open Banking – Benefits, challenges and risks Digital disruption is the driver that enables banks to keep pace with customer demands. By adopting the right digital business model, banks can take advantage of open banking to unleash new business value. Being an open bank means operating like a platform company, with a business model that connects people and processes with assets and a technology infrastructure to manage internal and external users’ interactions. Open banking—a platform-based business approach— is a new way of how banks generate value, born out of the increasing pressures from regulations and competitors. Outside the banking domain, industry leaders like Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Alibaba are unleashing technology’s power by developing platform-based business models and taking advantage of the strategies they enable. Since the beginning of 2018, sharing proprietary data with third parties is not an option for European banks, with PSD2 in the European Union. Investments are being made to make this a reality; almost $ billion was invested in PSD2 enabled services in 2016 (up to 200 percent from 2015)1. 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  In the core of Open banking are the application programming interfaces (APIs), which has also been used and facilitated by eBay starting in early 2000s, and also by technological giants like Google, Apple, Uber, and so on.

Maja Kadievska-Vojnovik: Fintech and digital transformation "Regulating an anonymous world" Platform for discussion by Ms Maja Kadievska-Vojnovik, Vice-Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the xCEEd Conference on Fintex, Belgrade, 22-23 May 2018. * * *  FinTech Sector – General trends, current state in Macedonia, main challenges and risks and impact on central banks’ activity FinTech is one of the fastest-growing sectors in the global financial services industry nowadays with total global venture investment in FinTech companies reaching high of $ billion in 2016(KPMG, 2016).The highest number of FinTech service providers is in the payments, clearing and settlement category, followed by credit, deposit and capital-raising services (Basel Committee on the Banking Supervision Survey, 2016). Research in the area (ATKearney & EFMA, 2013) points to several factors that define readiness for digitization in the banking sector such as: 1) the capacity of banks for innovation; 2) the stage of technological development where the country is located; 3) the level of competition in the sector; 4) culture of consumption; 5) demographic structure of the population; 6) degree of concentration in the banking sector; and 7) the existing regulation, which can promote or constrain emergence of new technological solutions.