samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Over the past 30 years, globalisation has flowed as never before. Trade integration has risen at a rate of over 1 percentage point per year, international capital integration at a rate of 6 percentage points per year. Today, the ratio of world trade to GDP is two and a half times its level at the end of the Second World War. The ratio of global external assets to world GDP is nearly ten times this level. Global integration of goods, services, money and people is at levels well beyond those seen previously. The creation and exchange of information has undergone an even more remarkable phase shift. The stock of information currently available is estimated to be around 1,200 exa-bytes1 Sufficient, if it were placed on CDs, to stretch to the moon and back almost three times. Sufficient for every person on the planet to each have over 300 times more information than was stored in the great library at Alexandria which, 2000 years ago, housed the sum of all human knowledge (Cukier and Mayer-Schoenberger (2013)). What is more, almost all of this information is new. Over 90% of it has become available in the past 10 years. Nearly half has become available in the past 3 years. This rate of expansion is unlikely to slow. Google alone processes 25 million gigabytes of data each day (Devenport et al. (2012)). Wal-Mart is handling 1 million new transactions every hour. Facebook is home to 40 billion digital photographs which increase at a rate of 10 million per hour.

First, the increase of inflation and rise of interest rates to balance its impact, as well as the respective effects passed through in the economic and financial sector from this interaction, have been the remit in all recent meetings and forums with national and international partners and homologue. The structure of re-pricing credit portfolios, which are dominant in our banking system, has enabled banks to begin to transfer this effect to borrowers, while the relatively high share of non-interest bearing accounts on the liability side has provided for the increase of interest margins, at least temporary. But the increase of credit cost bears the risk of non-performing loans growing in the future, so far as borrowers' solvency has not proportionally increased with the price upsurge. The development of abilities to foresee and assess in an objective manner the solvency of the existing clients – without being inclined to fast and short-term profits, which may harm an already established long-term relationship - will be one of the main challenges in the next year. Second, requirements on capital (macro-prudential buffers and requirements on regulatory capital instruments and eligible liabilities) will continue to increase in  3/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  compliance with the regulatory provisions and the respective gradual application programme in 2023.
It recommended the introduction of limits on the proportion of new mortgages at high LTI ratios. The momentum in the housing market cooled and the limits have not so far been reached. It is impossible to say how much this was a result of the Committee’s action; a number of other important factors were also in play. But it is an example of the FPC’s approach to adjusting policy to respond to changing risks. And it is also an example of the Committee taking a broad view of financial stability that goes wider than direct risks to the banking system. A further example of how macroprudential risk can develop outside the banking system is the lending and investment that happens through financial markets rather than through banks. To take one example, the global asset management sector has grown by 60% since 2003 and is now a similar size to the global commercial banking system. This will probably be one  2  6  The July 2015 FSR identified the following major risks facing the UK financial system: the global environment notably Greece and China; market liquidity; UK current account deficit; UK housing market; misconduct; and cyber risk. BIS central bankers’ speeches  of the new frontiers of macro (and micro) prudential regulation. The FPC is exploring whether there are significant risks from changes in these markets and in particular how asset managers manage liquidity to meet redemptions in times of stress. There is also work underway on this internationally.

To some extent this is a consequence of transitory factors that are judged to have no permanent effect on either inflation or the inflation process and should therefore not influence the formulation of monetary policy. These transitory factors – altered indirect taxes and subsidies as well as lower interest expenditure – are projected to lower the CPI by between 0.5 and 1 percentage point in the coming two years. But even excluding the transitory factors, it is considered that inflation will be below the target in 1999 and 2000. In the light of its assessment, last Thursday the Executive Board decided to ease the monetary stance. The future formulation of policy is something that will also be discussed in the Inflation Report, which will be published on March 25th. BIS Review 18/1999  6
This flexibility allows us to be tough where appropriate, but to avoid inappropriate requirements - tailoring the requirements to the nature of the bank’s activities. Most fundamentally, perhaps, we can ask questions, and attempt to take advantage of all the information at our disposal to form a judgement of the risks facing depositors and investors, as well as of the quality of a bank’s management. So in addition to enforcing rules and looking for problems, we can help management. We can spread knowledge of best practice: asking banks about the full range of risks they face (including those - like reputational and settlement risk that they would often rather ignore); and pointing out to complex groups the extent to which their managerial and organisational systems have moved away from their legal structure. It is true that, in addition to being less rule-bound than most other supervisors, the Bank is commonly viewed as doing relatively little on-site supervision. Of course, this depends on how you define the term. Accountants are well aware that the Bank does, for example, make extensive use of reports prepared by auditors - who, of course, operate on-site - in order to assess the adequacy of internal controls. In particular, the Bank regularly instructs banks to appoint reporting accountants to report on systems and controls and on the accuracy of prudential returns. The Bank’s supervisors also spend a growing amount of time on-site.

Nout Wellink, President of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and Governor of the Central Bank of the Netherlands, quotes Charles Kindleberger, saying in his famous book "Manias, Panics and Crashes", that the "financial crises are typically a result of extended accumulation of imbalances preceded by certain exogenous shock, or structural changes in the financial system. The examples are in the changes in the political environment, new regulations and financial innovations. These changes create new possibilities, but also, uncertainties and lack of awareness of potential risks from the so-called unknown-unknowns". In such environment, says Wellink, "the traditional checks and balances can become inappropriate and can easily result in excessive risk". Really, we have faced:  2. 4  •  Fiscal and balance of payments deficits, which failed to be treated because there was no enough good will for that in the globalized world, and accordingly to discuss about the foreign exchange rates. •  Huge imbalances in the financial sector, the dimensions of which grew to explosion. While the savings rates were decreasing with a limited rise in the households' deposits being registered, the banks were filling in the gap between the retail deposits and the credit growth by using sources from the wholesale markets. For example, in England, the gap between the lending to clients and the deposits climbed from zero, in the beginning of the century, to over British Pounds 700 billion in the first half of 2008, says Sir John Gieve, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England.
Emerging economies in Latin America, the Middle East and Asia have become important centres in the global economy. These trends have resulted in an increasingly multi-polar world in which the economic power is more dispersed in the global economy. In Asia, the growing significance of domestic demand, the enhanced quality of the workforce and the more developed and resilient financial systems have all contributed to this strong growth performance. While the strong global linkages continue to be an important element in this growth process, this decade has seen the tremendous expansion in intra-regional trade in Asia. Intra-regional trade has increased from 32% of total trade in 1995 to now exceed 50%. This trend has generated mutually reinforcing growth in the region. While this trend has reduced the extent to which external demand and supply shocks affect the Asian region, the more recent phenomenon of greater international financial integration has left no country insulated from the contagion of external shocks and from financial crisis from other parts of the world. In this new environment of greater international financial  BIS Review 74/2010  1  integration, developments in one asset class in a market in a distant country can spread to other asset classes, markets and to other parts of the world. Financial exposure through third markets are also becoming the new norm as liquidation of assets frequently occur in well functioning and high performing markets to meet obligations in other markets that have experienced disruptions or meltdowns.

Following the Asian financial crisis, efforts have focused on five main areas, namely, to enhance the effectiveness of regional economic and financial surveillance, to improve the arrangements for regional crisis management that is reinforced by regional support mechanisms, to develop the regional financial infrastructure including the bond market and the payments and settlement system, to strengthen regional financial stability, and finally, to pursue capacity  BIS Review 74/2010  3  building collaboratively, so as to enhance the effectiveness of the Central Banks in the region. The priority for Asia going forward is to accelerate regional financial integration. To ensure this takes place in an environment of regional stability, strengthening cooperation is also aimed at managing the risks and vulnerabilities of the region. In 2006, the East Asian Central Banks have established a monetary and financial stability committee as a forum to discuss the risks to regional macroeconomic and financial stability. In addition, the ASEAN+3, a subset of this group, has already taken concrete steps to multilateralise the Chiang Mai Initiative into a more advanced and robust framework for the effective pooling and utilisation of liquidity support in the region. While the Asian region is highly diverse, in these key areas of cooperation and collaboration, the Asian region has demonstrated its cohesiveness in coming together to deal with the challenges that the new environment presents to us. Conclusion Let me now conclude. The world has changed and will continue to change.
I and my colleagues on the Executive Board, like many others, have also highlighted the poor functioning of the housing market and the fact that a low supply has pushed up prices and thus household debt. So measures that increase the supply of housing are also needed, but I have talked about this before and do not intend to go into it any further today. Fourthly: It is important to act as soon as possible. If indebtedness and housing prices keep on increasing they will gradually reach levels that involve even greater risks and where the economy will be even more sensitive to shocks. The costs could then be even greater. We have previously published estimates of what might happen in the economy when a shock occurs and indebtedness is high.21 Such estimates are always very uncertain, but it could be a question of rises in unemployment of around 5 percentage points when the economy suffers a financial crisis. If we look out at today’s Europe, where there has been negative growth and high unemployment for many years, I think that the alternative, hiding our heads in the sand, is not a good idea. One can also argue that the shock the actual policy measures entails, what one might call the direct adjustment cost, will be less with lower interest rates. If, in the prevailing low interest rate situation, one takes measures that seriously affect households’ incentives to borrow, such as abolishing tax relief, interest expenditure would increase considerably.

Tarisa Watanagase: Dealing with volatile capital flows Welcome address by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the 42nd SEACEN Governors’ Conference, Bangkok, 28 July 2007. *  *  *  Your Excellency Minister of Finance, Mr. Rodrigo de Rato, Mr. Hervé Hannoun, Fellow Governors, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, I would like to begin by extending a very warm welcome to all of you to Bangkok. We are pleased to host the 42nd SEACEN Governors’ Conference and the 26th Meeting of SEACEN Board of Governors here in Bangkok. I would also like to express my sincere appreciation to His Excellency Chalongphob Sussangkarn, Finance Minister of Thailand, for his presence here to officially open the Conference. This year’s theme on “Living with Volatilities: Is SEACEN prepared for Rising Fluctuations in Exchange Rate and Capital Flows?” comes at an opportune moment, given a recent volatile and uncertain market conditions. This volatility has posed challenges to central banks in maintaining monetary and financial stability. Let me share with you some of my views on this very important issue. It is traditionally believed that emerging markets are subject to more volatile capital flows than developed countries due to underdevelopment of our financial markets and weak institutions. Thus, putting in place a more flexible exchange rate policy, credible monetary policy and sound domestic financial system could help emerging markets reduce the volatility of capital flows as well as its negative effect on the economic stability.
As you may know, Paris EUROPLACE brings together the whole range of market participants – issuers, investors and intermediaries – in order to contribute to the development of European capital markets and promote the Paris financial center. The financial industry in India, as in Europe, is expanding significantly. And we have already seen in the past few years the flourishing of partnerships between French and Indian financial institutions: such as in the asset management industry, the joint venture between Sundaram and BNP Paribas Asset Management, or the SGAM and SBI Mutual Funds partnership; in insurance services, the Bharti and Axa Life Insurance partnership, and the joint venture between SBI Life and Cardiff; and in online brokerage: current developments involving Cortal Consors and Geojit. It is for this reason that it was decided by Paris EUROPLACE to focus our program on the development of opportunities and potential new partnerships between Mumbai and Paris, as well as to review how the expertise of the Paris financial marketplace can be used and leveraged. Let me highlight the following questions: -  Why has the European financial market become a major pillar of international finance? -  And what are the key advantages offered by the Paris financial market place? 1. First, why has the European financial market become a major pillar of international finance to compare favourably with the other large markets of the world?

Nonetheless, the NPL ratio can be an imperfect indicator of the effect that non-productive or problem assets may have on a bank’s solvency, since it does not take into account the asset collateral or the provisions set aside. The so-called Texas ratio, an approximation to which is  2  According to data for Spain from the EBA 2015 transparency exercise (consolidated data, significant institutions). With data for business in Spain, drawn from individual financial statements, the related ratio for the resident private sector in Spain stood at 10.4% in December 2015. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  illustrated in Chart 4, offers a much broader view in that it also includes in its calculation the provisions and capital available to the bank. Chart 3  Chart 4 TEXAS RATIO PROXY (a)  NPL RATIO  1.6  %  30  1.4  25  1.2  20  1.0  15  0.8 0.6  10  0.4  5  0.2  0 UK  DE  FR  EU Avrg. SSM Avrg. (a)  ES  DECEMBER 2014  PT  IT  IE  JUNE 2015  0.0 UK  DE  FR  EU Avrg. DECEMBER 2014  ES  SSM Avrg. PT  IT  IE  JUNE 2015  SOURCE: European Banking Authority. Transparency Exercise 2015 (104 institutions). SOURCE: European Banking Authority. Transparency Exercise 2015 (104 institutions). a. The SSM average includes data on 15 of the 19 euro area countries.
John C Williams: The research-policy nexus - ZLB, JMCB and FOMC Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Conference celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the “Journal of Money, Credit and Banking”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 31 May 2019. * * * As prepared for delivery John Maynard Keynes quipped, “Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” I wonder whether Keynes would see this as a feature rather than a bug in light of his enduring influence on the profession more than 70 years after his death. The theme of my talk today is that during my quarter century as a researcher and policymaker at the Fed, we have not been overly beholden to defunct economists. Quite the contrary. A quick scan of FOMC memos, briefings, and meeting minutes provides ample evidence that a wide range of economic research—new and old, conventional and outside the box—regularly enters into our debates and influences our decisions. This represents a rich two-way dialogue between researchers and policymakers, with both sides probing for new answers to old questions. I could list a long catalog of examples of the synergistic relationship between research and policymaking at central banks. Instead, I will focus my comments today on one specific topic: the zero lower bound on interest rates, or ZLB for short.

This seems due, in part, to important fundamental improvements in policy credibility and economic performance. It may also reflect confidence that governments will ultimately act effectively to deal with these challenges. And it may reflect the inherent difficulty of assessing the risk in what may seem like low probability but very adverse outcomes. A number of fundamental changes in the U.S. financial system over the past 25 years appear to have rendered it able to withstand the stress of a broader array of shocks than was the case in the past. The core institutions hold more capital against risk. Risk management systems are more sophisticated and the internal control regimes around those systems are more robust. The earnings of many financial institutions are stronger and more diversified. Payments systems are stronger. Innovation continues at a remarkable pace, providing new ways to allocate and manage risk. Confidence in the overall resilience of the financial system needs to be tempered by the realization that there is much we still do not know about the likely sources and consequences of future stress to the system. Uncertainty is inherent in any process of change, but uncertainty is greater because much of the recent innovation has occurred against the backdrop of general economic stability and a sustained period of low credit losses, low risk premia and low implied volatility across many asset classes. This means that some aspects of the financial system today have not yet been subjected to the more exacting tests of macroeconomic or financial stress.
These are: (i) macroeconomic stabilisation and confidence in the sustainability of government debt; (ii) an adequate level of foreign exchange reserves; and (iii) a sound financial sector. After the third review of the IMF programme, the first two are in place and there are prospects that the third will be fulfilled before the end of the year. The  8  BIS Review 139/2010  challenge is then to design and sequence the process in such a way that the risk of temporary exchange rate and domestic financial market instability is minimised to the extent possible, given the urgency of lifting the controls sooner rather than later. Let me conclude by saying that stabilising the Icelandic economy was a challenging task. The next step is equally so. However, it is imperative for Iceland’s future prosperity that we be as successful in taking that step as we have been in stabilising the economy. Thank you very much. BIS Review 139/2010  9

Today, it has evolved to become a truly global meeting place for thought leadership and collaboration, with the presence of several international organisations in the building and the regional and international meetings that are held here. Being a Central Bank, our goal is to ultimately enhance our knowledge and capability to enable us to better serve society. This is not unlike Joseph Wharton’s vision for the Wharton School to produce graduates who would become, what he referred to as, “pillars of the state, whether in private or in public life”. The Collective Strength of the ASEAN Region Turning to the theme of the Global Forum – “Mobilising ASEAN: Building the Future through Partnership”. Founded almost half a century ago, ASEAN is currently one of the fastestgrowing and most dynamic regions in the world. While at different stages of economic development, the ten economies of ASEAN all share immense growth potential. The region has experienced a long-term average annual growth of more than 5%, much higher than the global average, and this is expected to be sustained going forward. Collectively, ASEAN is now the sixth-largest economy in the world, with a population of 630 million and a combined GDP of USD2.5 trillion. ASEAN is also one of the centres of global trade, after the European Union, North America and China, and it is home to more than 220 global companies with annual revenues of above USD1 billion. This strong growth and economic dynamism of ASEAN are supported by its favourable demographic structure.