samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
East Asian, West Asian and the Middle East regions – greater inter-linkages Islamic finance has made significant inroads in the international financial markets that has achieved growing global awareness. Islamic finance now has a presence in over 60 countries, with total Islamic assets under management by Islamic banks and conventional banks offering Islamic banking services reportedly exceeding USD400 billion. At present, Islamic mutual funds are estimated to be at a value of over USD300 billion, while issuance of Islamic sovereign and corporate bonds, or sukuk, have reached about USD50 billion. Islamic finance has demonstrated its viability and competitiveness in the current environment of a more liberalised and globalised financial system, with changing business and technological climates. As a form of financial intermediation it is now becoming increasingly integrated with the international financial system. Against the backdrop of this rapid development in the international Islamic financial markets, there is potential to build greater intermediation linkages between the East Asian, the West Asian and Middle East regions to expand further the inter-regional trade and cross border investments. In an increasingly globalised financial environment, sovereigns, development institutions and corporations of capital deficit countries have the option of raising Islamic financial instruments in capital surplus countries through the Islamic financial intermediaries. Significant economic benefits will arise from the strengthening of these inter-linkages. The expansion of inter-linkages of intermediation and markets among these regions would lead to a more efficient allocation of capital and thus enhance the prospects for strengthening further the growth performance.

Theoretical models often assume the existence of a central bank reaction function. A well-known reaction function can be a powerful tool in stabilizing output and inflation because yield curves can adjust in anticipation of future policy in line with the evolving outlook for the economy. To return to my football theme, Mervyn King referred to this as the Maradona theory of interest rates. But credible reaction functions don’t fall from the sky and need to be earned by communicating and acting consistently through time. We are and will remain predictable for our stakeholders. Through its forward guidance, the Governing Council has also indicated its intention to move gradually and in accordance with the data. Faced with uncertainty about the strength of the transmission mechanism, we should be guided by pragmatism - the level of inflation relative to the medium-term objective and gradualism. The final C is for clarity. Central bankers should try to spell out what they will and won’t do as much as possible. On the first part, we were clear in Riga; on the second part, let me stress that we cannot fully compensate for the uncertainty created by other policy-makers; nor can we fully offset their effects. We have shown in the past few years that monetary policy is flexible, and we have been willing to use every instrument within our mandate to respond to too low inflation.
Third, there is scope to extend Islamic finance solutions to meet infrastructure financing needs in Asia and in the Middle East. In particular, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has been working with the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) to provide Islamic infrastructure financing solutions to their member countries in these two regions. This includes developing and participating in innovative financing structures such as the Islamic Infrastructure Fund and the International Islamic Liquidity Management Corporation. The IDB is also exploring a potential link-up with the planned Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). This could spur the use of sukuk to fund some of Asia’s infrastructure needs, and tap a growing pool of Islamic investors across the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Islamic finance in Singapore 10. As an international financial centre and one that serves as a gateway for investments into Asia, Islamic finance is an important asset class that complements Singapore’s strong conventional financing and capital market capabilities. Islamic finance activities in Singapore are broad-based, covering Islamic banking, asset management and capital markets, which mirror our conventional strengths: •  Islamic banking assets in Singapore have grown by 73% since 2010, and are increasingly cross-border in nature. Consistent with the pattern for conventional finance, Islamic banking liabilities sourced from the region are subsequently deployed to Southeast Asia and the GCC;  •  Assets under management have also risen, by 22% since 2010. Singapore is home to Sabana REIT, which is the largest Islamic REIT globally by asset size.

In 2013, Sabana also launched a corporate sukuk programme in Singapore to help finance its purchase of industrial properties; and  •  Islamic capital market activities have also taken off, with 31 sukuk issuances over the last five years. We have more sukuk issuances than other conventional jurisdictions, with total outstanding issuance reaching a high of $ billion in 2014, compared to $ million in 2009. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11. To support the development of Islamic finance in Singapore, MAS established a Sukuk Facility in 2009 to provide SGD Islamic regulatory assets for banks undertaking Islamic finance activities here. We remain the only conventional central bank to have done so. There have been 8 issuances to-date totalling $ million, supported by robust demand, with the latest issuance in November 2014 being our largest yet. Our sukuk programme has facilitated the growth of banks’ Islamic finance assets in Singapore, and also encouraged corporates to issue sukuk to meet demand from financial institutions and investors. 12. Going forward, we will continue to strengthen our Islamic finance regime and capabilities to enable us to support opportunities from deepening trade and investment linkages between Asia and the Middle East, as well as infrastructure projects within the Asian region. In infrastructure for example, an estimated $ billion will be needed annually until 2022 to meet the basic infrastructure needs in ASEAN alone 3.
The Central Bank incorporated these expectations into its baseline forecast, even though it considered them unrealistic. They assumed rapid cuts in the policy rate commencing early this year. The Central Bank considered neither assumption to be compatible with the inflation outlook. Thus the forecast lacked credibility, in the Bank’s own opinion. This prompts the question of what assumptions it is natural for the Central Bank to make about the policy rate in its baseline macroeconomic and inflation forecasts. Iceland is not the only country whose central bank has faced such a challenge. Several years ago, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand responded by using its own policy rate forecast as an assumption. The Bank of Norway followed suit two years ago and now uses a future interest rate path forecast by its Executive Board for its baseline forecast. Sweden’s Riksbank recently announced that it will use its own forecast for the repo rate path as an assumption in its inflation forecast. These banks have followed a similar course to the Central Bank of Iceland in developing the interest rate assumptions behind their forecasts. They have now opted to use the path that is forecast by those who actually determine the policy rate, partly because they did not consider market agents’ forecasts and expectations sufficiently credible. At the same time, these central banks have firmly stated that their policy rate forecasts entail no commitment to hold their rates to that path.

It should also be pointed out that exchange rate movements can be the result of external events or changes beyond our control, such as a sudden shift in international investors’ risk perceptions or global credit supply. The exchange rate of the króna is closely linked to developments in capital markets elsewhere in the world, especially while the current account deficit is as large as at present. Inflation and macroeconomic forecasting The Central Bank bases its monetary policy formulation and implementation on the inflation and macroeconomic forecast that it prepares three times a year and publishes in Monetary Bulletin. Forecasts are always uncertain and by definition can never state precisely what will happen over the forecast horizon. The Central Bank forecasts are based on extensive research and analysis, and on models that have been developed to simulate how events are likely to unfold. A major advance was made in 2006 with the introduction of a new macroeconomic model designed by Central Bank economists. The Central Bank has always expressed qualifications about the accuracy of its forecasts, and readers of Monetary Bulletin will be familiar with the risk profiles that draw attention to forecasting uncertainties. Another uncertainty is the output gap at any time, which is an important determinant of the inflation outlook. However, the economic laws are known and are the same as everywhere. Forecasts are prepared on the basis of the best available information and known correlations between changes in aggregates.
Economic developments have been driven by wholly exogenous health developments and governments have provided massive fiscal support to incomes, employment, the corporate sector and in some cases like the UK, to housing markets. It remains striking however, that following some of the sharpest economic contractions in modern history and amid great uncertainty and indeed, initially fear, about the future, housing markets have been strong. In the UK, over the 12 months to February, house prices have risen by 9.1%, the highest growth rate since October 2014. This compares to an average annual growth rate of under 4% in the 10 years prior to the pandemic. Mortgage approvals have averaged around 85,000 per month and total transactions 111,000 per month since housing markets opened in June 2020, compared to around 60,000 and 90,000 in the prior decade, respectively. The pre-pandemic decade, however, may not be the right comparator. The 10 years following the financial crisis appear unusual in that over that period house prices grew broadly in line with incomes, having grown at double the rate of income in the previous twenty to thirty years. I want to look today at some of the reasons why house prices growth and housing transactions were, in UK terms, relatively subdued for the 10 years prior to Covid, and at what drives house prices and transactions.

At the same time, the liberalisation of foreign equity participation in investment banks opens opportunities for investment banks to explore tie-ups and joint ventures with foreign parties to leverage on their expertise and distribution network to help Malaysian investment banks leapfrog in their areas of competitive advantage. Given the intensity of the competitive pressures, investment banks may not have the luxury to grow organically. The onset of increased competition will determine the pace of enhancements that investment banks must make to remain relevant and compete meaningfully in a more challenging operating environment. Finally, let me also mention a further area in the financial sector that is experiencing significant change, namely, the profound global growth in Islamic banking and finance. Islamic finance is practised in over 60 countries across the world. Assets of Islamic banks and Islamic assets of windowbased conventional banks gross to over USD400 billion. Islamic mutual funds exceed USD300 billion. Islamic sovereign and corporate sukuk has breached the USD15 billion mark. The issuance of Islamic bonds or sukuk is expected to top USD10 billion for this year alone. The global market capitalisation of Dow Jones Islamic index is well over USD10 trillion. Most of this growth was experienced in the recent decade with the demand for Islamic financial assets continuing to increase. Also in demand are Shariah compliant hedging instruments to meet the needs of both investors and issuers. The expansion of Islamic finance and demand for Islamic financial assets promise exciting opportunities for innovative and enterprising merchant bankers.
However, as such cross-border operations become more common and complex, there is also the need to ensure the financial stability and integrity of each domestic market, and that the  2  McKinsey & Company: The World Islamic Banking Competitiveness Report 2007-08. BIS Review 63/2008  3  protection of its consumers and investors are not compromised. As several regulators on our IFSB Board have commented, risk management and prudential management cannot be compromised if we wish to have healthy growth and to avoid crisis. In this regard, the cooperation of supervisors is very important. 3rd task: promoting greater cooperation Beyond economic integration and supervisory cooperation, the third essential task is what I would call the “soft” or “people” aspect. It may seem tangential to talk about this when we are looking at technical issues of accounting, regulations and capital adequacy, but all cooperation depends on trust. Without trust, we cannot work together. But trust cannot be built overnight. Trust is developed over time in the face of challenges. There is an old saying that you know how good a horse is only after you have traveled with it over long journeys. At the highest level, we need strong political ties to promote integration between the Middle East and Asia. In this regard, I am glad to see numerous visits have taken place between the leaders of Middle East and Asia in recent years.

With the world economy now beginning to catch a cold from the slowdown in the US economy, the quality and competitiveness of our exports means that our companies are better equipped than others to hold their own in the global marketplace. Foreign trade not only represents Switzerland's growth driver, but it is also our friend when economic times are hard. BIS Review 45/2008  1
Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Enhancing the quality of Malaysia’s Islamic finance education Speech by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the launch of the Educator’s Manual on Shariah Standard Murabahah, Kuala Lumpur, 15 August 2016. *  *  *  We are here today to witness the launch of the Educator's Manual on Shariah Standard Murabahah. The Manual is a pioneering effort. Translating the Shariah standard and operational requirements into a user-friendly format for adoption in the academic syllabus of our local universities will go a long way in enhancing the Islamic finance syllabus by educational establishment. This is a great team effort. I would like to congratulate the panel of authors that have tirelessly contributed towards the production of this teaching guide. The Shariah Advisory Council (SAC) members, researchers from the International Shari'ah Research Academy (ISRA), representatives from the Islamic Banking and Finance Institute Malaysia (IBFIM), the academic fraternity and the industry players. The dedication of the team has produced a manual that will make the overall learning experience more comprehensive, exciting and interactive. My congratulations and appreciation to Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia (USIM) and the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) for being visionary to participate in this pilot project. There is a wealth of benefits to be gained. It is our aspiration that other universities would be a part of this initiative that would contribute towards enhancing the quality of our Islamic finance education.

The 1960s were a time of hope and promise for New York City, with the World’s Fair, the opening of the Verrazano Bridge, and the beginning of construction of the World Trade Center. The city benefited from a booming stock market and strong overall job growth. My memories of New York City during that period were very glowing. Visiting from Massachusetts, I remember going to the World’s Fair and to a Mets game at the new Shea Stadium—heady stuff for an 11-year-old. As a boy who planned to be a nuclear physicist when he grew up, I particularly recall the General Electric exhibit at the World’s Fair that highlighted the potential of hydrogen fusion as a future power source. Although that turned out to be like flying cars—always somewhere just over the horizon—it was exciting to contemplate as an aspiring scientist. Unbeknownst to me,there were also some ominous signs for the city. The city’s manufacturing sector was losing jobs at a worrisome pace, population growth had slowed to a crawl, crime was on the rise and racial tensions were growing. As the sixties unfolded, there were also a number of major strikes affecting public services, most notably the 1968 teachers’ strike. Perhaps most importantly, the city’s finances were on a reckless path. Despite growth in the economy and the tax base, the city was taking on more short-term debt, relying increasingly on state aid and grossly underfunding its pensions.
Comparing this set of conditions to that in 2010, the recent slowing of inflation has been less widespread across core goods and core services, and inflation expectations so far have declined less appreciably than they did in 2010. Thus, my best guess is that core goods prices will begin to firm in the months ahead as global demand begins to strengthen and inventories get into better alignment with sales. 1  2  CoreLogic Report Shows Home Prices Rise by 12.1 Percent Year Over Year in April. BIS central bankers’ speeches  As is always the case, there is substantial uncertainty surrounding this forecast. Moreover, there is always the possibility of some unforeseen shock. Thus, we will be monitoring U.S. and global economic conditions very carefully and will adjust our views on the likely path for growth, inflation and the unemployment rate accordingly in response to new information. At its meeting last week, the FOMC decided to continue its accommodative policy stance. It reaffirmed its expectation that the current low range for the federal funds rate target will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent, so long as inflation and inflation expectations remain well-behaved. It is important to remember that these conditions are thresholds, not triggers. The FOMC also maintained its purchases of $ billion per month in agency MBS and $ billion per month in Treasury securities, with a stated goal of promoting a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook in a context of price stability.

1997 Q1-Q2 = 100  Chart 12 Nominal GDP Indices in $ Terms  120  120  110  110  100  100  90  90 80  80 70 60 50 40  Hong Kong Indonesia Korea Malaysia Singapore Taiwan Thailand  70 60 50 40 30  30 Q1 1997  Q2  Q3  Q4  Q1 1998  Q2  7  Q3  Q4  Q1 1999  Q2 12  BIS Review 103/1999
Ladies and Gentlemen, the importance of obtaining a sovereign rating and issuing a sovereign bond cannot be over-emphasised. By providing access to long term funds, a sovereign bond issue provides wide possibilities for countries to meet financing needs demanded by their growing economies. At the same time, issuers are assured that their financing needs will be met in an orderly and timely manner. This will no doubt result in cost efficient investments in the economy. In a country like ours a sovereign rating and bond issuance will lead to availability of relatively less costly finance for the timely execution of a number of long term projects in sectors like energy, communication, agriculture and mining. The timely execution of such projects would no doubt accelerate economic growth further and impact positively on the high levels of poverty. This workshop has therefore come at the right time when our countries, which just a few years ago were clearly outsiders in the international capital markets, are also now taking financing decisions to fully participate in the international capital markets. I must admit that international financial markets can be a maze for new entrants, and so updating our skills by consulting others becomes a priority and adds a lot of value. I have little doubt that as you remain deliberating here, the sessions will be very interactive and will provide a lot of food for thought. I am certain that everyone here will find this event beneficial.

But given the highly varied circumstances of UK banks, we concluded that it is more sensible in the first instance for FSA to work out the details in its supervision of individual firms. These will be meaningful discussions, and FSA will report back to FPC on progress. That measure is being taken in order to make the UK banking system more resilient, and so better able to maintain credit supply, in the face of threats that could crystallise any time over the next year or so. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The FPC also looked at whether any developments in markets might pose a longer-term threat to stability. We were struck that a renewed Search for Yield is already evident in some markets, and that this is reflected in innovations that could add to the complexity and opacity of the system. The drift of Exchange-Traded Funds away from their original bearings is striking. The Bank team have briefed various international bodies, including the Financial Stability Board, on this over the past year. Compared with their vanilla forebears, there are now ETFs incorporating leverage, active management and synthetic structures. As FPC discussed, it is important for the European Securities Markets Authority to act to ensure that its regime for investment products does not fall further behind. HMT and FSA lead those negotiations for the UK.