samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Now it becomes more and more clear that these trends will be the major forces that will shape the landscape and structure of our economy, and the pace and degree of changes will be faster and larger than before. On one hand, these changes could become big threats to your businesses and the economy as a whole if we don’t adapt. On the other hand, if we embrace these changes and recognize the many opportunities that come with them, we could ride this wave of changes forward. In doing this, business model transformation and large structural reform policies are needed in order to increase both the productivity and resiliency of the Thai economy. Let me end my talk by saying once again that we will not know with certainty what the Thai economy will look like in 2025. The structure, competitiveness, and resilience of our economy five years from now will depend critically on how we address the five major trends. Thank you very much for your kind attention. 10

Now we are observing renewed tensions, as the costs of supporting financial sectors, fiscal stimulus and automatic stabilisers brought the focus to public finances across many countries both within and outside the euro area. BIS Review 70/2010  1  With hindsight, the financial crisis has reminded us that the seeds of financial instability are often the same: balance sheet mismatches, high leverage (on or off balance sheets) and very rapid growth of financial institutions. Essentially all of these elements were at play in one form or another in this episode. Now what are the lessons for financial stability monitoring and assessment frameworks as implemented by the responsible authorities? A first observation I would like to make in this respect is, that we, as other central banks, had been drawing attention in our semi-annual Financial Stability Review, which Lucas was overseeing for many years, to the risks that were building up. For at least two years before the turmoil began, we issued clear warnings about vulnerabilities that were building up on account of an increasingly aggressive hunt for yield which was underpinning significant under-pricing of risks across a variety of asset classes, not only credit derivatives. And, I should also say that, the same warnings were communicated by several other central banks. A second observation is that in parallel with our financial stability assessments, we also repeatedly warned euro area governments of the risks of not consolidating fiscal positions in accordance with the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact.
Norges Bank is therefore considering whether the central bank should also offer the public central bank digital currency.8 Like cash, central bank digital currency will be a claim on the central bank. It will have to be designed to be a risk-free alternative to private payment solutions and to function in a contingency in the same way as cash does. It can be based on account systems, as we know them today, or it can be a digital variant of banknotes and coins. The latter alternative will entail a clear distinction between central bank digital currency and banks’ deposit money. In the future, central bank digital currency may be necessary for ensuring an efficient and robust payment system. Its most important purpose will be to underpin confidence in the monetary system. MONETARY STABILITY In order to serve as generally accepted means of payment, money must have a stable value guaranteed in a credible manner. There must be trust that money will be worth as much tomorrow as it is today. This is the primary task of monetary policy. In September 2018, Norges Bank raised the policy rate for the first time in seven years (Chart 11), reflecting the favourable developments in the Norwegian economy. The effects of the fall in oil prices in 2014 have faded, and both output and employment show solid growth. Underlying inflation is close to the 2 percent target. If economic developments prove to be in line with expectations, the policy rate will be raised gradually and cautiously ahead. 7 Kloster, A.

It is not only a topic for today’s conference but a challenge for each of us, for our societies and democracies, as well as for the financial system in the long run. Thank you for your attention  8
Thus, central banks may implement, successfully, different communication strategies that may be appropriate and optimal given the above1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  mentioned factors. As most central banks, including the National Bank of Romania, have opened up a lot in recent years – by reviewing, adapting and refining their strategies, using modern and social media tools –, an effective communication approach should always include a degree of flexibility in order to respond to a rapidly changing economic environment, exceptional circumstances as well as the level and appetite for financial knowledge in the society. Forward guidance The global financial crisis pushed central banks to expand and heavily use their monetary toolkits besides identifying new instruments for the more delicate financial stability area. One weapon in their arsenal, involving a strong communication approach, was forward guidance, which was put to good use in the monetary policy field as central bankers attempted to calm the markets. Wisely exploiting the power of words, forward guidance was aimed at improving monetary policy transmission by offering more than just a glimpse at the central banks’ next moves. Greater predictability of the reaction function or an associated timing for the next actions enable market participants to better calibrate expectations. It worked in several instances. It also increased the initial framework to include, apart from the traditional policy rate, references to some other parts of the central bank’s toolkit (asset purchases), offering markets nice hooks to cling on in times of stress and heightened uncertainty.

No matter how hard times the European Union is going through and no matter how many challenges must be adequately dealt with, an in-depth analysis shows that political, economic and social interests converging towards the continuation of this great project, namely the strengthening of the European Union, are stronger and more motivated than  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  those stemming from rather circumstantial fears, arising out of the difficulties and vulnerabilities brought along by the global crisis. In order to stick to the virtuous direction that I have referred to – or to return to it –, I personally think that in these difficult times for the European Union, we should not forget to put things into perspective. This means that short-term policies must be harmonised with the long-term vision and policies. Romania’s stance is to consistently support EU-wide economic and institutional reforms. We believe that efforts to strengthen governance in the European Union and the euro area should be made without delay, and they should be understood and supported by all Member States. At the same time, particular attention should also be paid to the small- and medium-sized enterprises. In any country of the European Union, small- and medium-sized enterprises generate most of the turnover and provide jobs for most employees. Romania is no exception to this rule.
Cecilia Skingsley: A year of negative interest rates. Where do we stand now? Speech by Ms Cecilia Skingsley, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Danske Bank, Stockholm, 7 April 2016. *  *  *  Thank you to Christina Nyman, Ulf Söderström, Charlotta Edler, Marianne Sterner, Emil Brodin and Anders Vredin for useful comments and assistance. Thank you for inviting me here today. I intend to talk about three issues: Is it possible to conduct a national monetary policy in a complicated international environment? How has Swedish monetary policy been conducted in recent years? What considerations should govern our choice of future path? Is it possible to conduct a national monetary policy in a complicated international environment? I believe that most people will recognise the description of growth and the recovery following the global financial crisis as being a disappointment in most countries. In many cases the setbacks have been severe and prolonged, for instance, in southern Europe, while in other cases growth has been positive but low. Many central banks, wishing to live up to their price stability commitments, have implemented more far-reaching and long-term measures to stimulate monetary policy than have previously been imagined as possible. So how did we get to where we are now, with such low interest rates? In the long run, it is structural factors such as the conditions for growth and the willingness to save that determine the level of the real interest rate.

This January, the Bureau launched a Fintech Proof-of-Concept Subsidy Scheme. This scheme provides financial incentives to banks to transform their processes through the use of innovative Regtech solutions. Regtech firms will also benefit as they will have more opportunities to showcase and validate their solutions and gain experience in the Hong Kong market. 17. In addition to offering incentives and opportunities for developing innovative use cases, I would also like to highlight several key infrastructure developments that will make launching Regtech solutions easier. 18. One example of these is that the HKMA is developing the CDI, the Commercial Data Interchange, that will allow SMEs to grant financial institutions access to their data at different commercial establishments, of course with their consent. These will include ecommerce platforms and utilities companies. With more alternative data available to financial institutions, SMEs will stand a better chance of obtaining bank financing and also other customised services that will be made possible by the use of advanced data analytics. 19. I should also mention the HKMA’s collaboration with the Government on the “iAM Smart” platform, which is a one-stop personalised digital services platform available free of charge for everyone in Hong Kong. Financial institutions can now leverage iAM Smart to provide 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  customers with Regtech services such as remote onboarding and log-in authentication. The HKMA is now exploring a corporate version of iAM Smart, which will offer another important infrastructure to support Regtech development. 20.
Charles Bean: The economic outlook for 2011 and beyond Speech by Mr Charles Bean, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy at the Bank of England, at the Market News International Annual Seminar, London, 13 December 2010. *  *  *  Good morning! Christmas is the traditional time for looking back over the events of the past year and contemplating what the new year might bring. Today I shall follow that tradition by taking stock of economic developments over the past year and looking at the challenges ahead. Many of the recent activity indicators have been somewhat comforting. Global growth has recovered strongly on the back of a strong rebound in the emerging economies, with the IMF projecting expansion of close to 5% this year and more than 4% next year. Here in the United Kingdom, we have also seen a nascent recovery; output in the third quarter was, according to the latest ONS estimates, some 2.8% higher than a year earlier. That is marginally stronger than our projection for the most-likely path of four-quarter growth made a year earlier in our August 2009 Inflation Report. Around half of the growth over the past year was, however, down to the contribution of stockbuilding, as businesses reduced the rate of inventory decumulation and, in some cases, started to rebuild stocks. That can only provide a temporary boost to aggregate demand growth. And the contribution of public spending to growth is also set to fall as the Government’s planned fiscal consolidation gets underway.

Global ancillary services that are proficient in the Shariah, also have an important role in providing supportive professional services for such intermediaries and market players to effectively embark on such cross-border activities. In addition, having the required talent is another imperative in steering the Islamic financial sector towards increased internationalisation. The new financial landscape will require world-class business talent and boards with knowledge of the risks associated with internationalisation. Greater collaboration between the industry and education service providers will be important in supporting the talent requirements of the industry in its new phase of development. Today, we will witness the signing of a Memorandum of Agreement between an industry player and an academic institution for the establishment of an Islamic wealth management research centre. This commendable effort is dedicated to producing applied research in the area of Islamic wealth management. It is envisaged to spur innovation that will bring with it global benefits and that would also contribute towards setting industry standards in this key component of the Islamic financial industry. Thirdly, effective linkages and connections between global financial markets will be facilitated by business enablers, particularly in the area of legislation, taxation and regulation. The new global landscape of growing cross-border financial flows between regions that have national  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  and cultural differences also underscores the need for enhanced recognition and understanding of practices in the different jurisdictions.
In many industries, including the airline industry, where price competition is strong, low profitability has led to an increase in prices. High oil prices have also resulted in increased prices, for example for transport services. On the basis of the pay increases agreed upon in this year’s wage settlement, combined with the estimates for wage drift and wage carry-over, annual wage growth is projected at around 3½ per cent this year. Lower-than-projected wage growth may be related to the fact that there were few signs of improvement in labour market conditions prior to this year’s wage settlement. Lower-than-projected consumer price inflation last year may also have contributed. Low wage growth will in turn contribute to curbing the rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services. Prices for imported consumer goods have continued to fall. The decline in prices may reflect high productivity growth in the production of some goods and large investments to increase production capacity, particularly in China. This has led to strong competition and a low rise in prices for internationally traded goods. The shift in imports, for example clothing imports, towards low-cost countries seems to be substantial again this year. Structural changes in world trade have been important for the Norwegian economy, not least for the rise in prices for imported goods and services. The shift in imports towards low-cost countries has come gradually.

Statistics Norway’s business tendency survey indicates continued favourable prospects for Norwegian manufacturing. Activity is expected to increase in service industries and the construction sector in the near term. Capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy now appears to be close to a normal level. In manufacturing, capacity utilisation is close to its historical average. According to Norges Bank’s regional network, about 40 per cent of companies will have some or considerable difficulty in increasing production. Even though growth in the Norwegian economy has been high for a long period, substantial pressures have not yet emerged in the labour market. The rise in the number of employed in the first half of the year was fairly modest in relation to output growth. This may be due to lagged effects of the sharp fall in sickness absence through 2004. In many companies, the large increase in available person-hours was probably not fully utilised immediately. A considerable share of output growth may be the result of improved utilisation of company workforces. According to the quarterly national accounts, employment rose by 0.5 per cent from the first half of last year to the same period this year. Measured by the  1/7  Labour Force Survey (LFS), the number of employed rose by 12 000 from May to June and by a further 2 000 from June to July. The use of foreign labour has increased in the year that has passed since the enlargement of the EU.
As CCPs are designed to be shock absorbers at the centre of the financial system, damage to a CCP presents risks to the system as a whole. In order to ensure that what has been designed as a shock absorber does not under stress become a shock transmitter, CCPs not only hold collateral from their members, they are required to hold additional default funds large enough to cover the default of their two largest members. This default fund includes the CCPs own capital. And they are able to call for further resources from their members under their recovery plans if these funds are exhausted. Notwithstanding the high level of resilience that has been achieved in this area, I think there are three important ‘prudential risk’ challenges for CCPs going forward. The first is to ensure that CCPs are prudent and require enough collateral, or ‘margin’, from their counterparties in good times to ensure they are protected in times of stress against movement in financial asset prices and in counterparty credit worthiness. CCPs use mathematical models to calculate, on the basis of past and potential market moves, the size of the risks they need to insure against. Posting margin to a CCP is a cost for a CCP counterparty and its clients. CCPs need strong internal systems and controls to ensure that over time, commercial pressures and competition from other CCPs do not lead to inadequate margining.

They should be empowered to assess the risks that a bank poses to its stakeholders and the financial system. This will enable them to deal with risks at an early stage. But if the rulebook becomes too extensive and too detailed, supervision turns into a simple boxticking exercise. A large, detailed and seemingly comprehensive set of rules would make supervisors less flexible and effective; it would leave no room for discretion. Supervisors would no longer be able to react quickly to newly emerging risks in an ever-changing banking sector. They would be walled in by rules that were devised to cover every possible situation but, in reality, were outdated right from the start. So, looking ahead, we must fight the urge to make the rulebook ever more detailed. But don’t get me wrong – we shouldn’t unwind any of the reforms. What has been done was necessary. But we should be cautious about going too far. A few clear principles can be more effective than 1,000 complex rules. The two pillars of regulation and supervision are equally important and we should not favour one at the other’s expense. And this brings us to the third pillar of a stable banking sector: market discipline. With all this talk about rules and supervision, we must not forget that banks operate in a market economy. So why not use market forces to keep risks in check? There is nothing like the prospect of failure and financial loss to keep a lid on risk-taking.
While we are seeing competition between lenders pushing down on rates, particularly in the mortgage market, we have not yet seen evidence of a general deterioration in underwriting standards. Countercyclical macroprudential policy As we move forward in the credit cycle, I think we will need to consider whether and how risks are building in the financial system and how they should be addressed. This is of course already a regular and important element of the FPC’s discussions. But my guess is that it will become even more so in the next phase of the cycle. With that in mind I want to turn now from the conjunctural assessment of credit in the UK to what may look like a more theoretical question but one that is going to be increasingly important to us – what is the objective and the framework for time-varying macroprudential policy? Here I think one can distinguish a number of different strategies. The first is not to attempt time-varying macroprudential policy at all. The second is to set policy to aim to maintain a constant degree of resilience relative to risk. And the third is to use policy actively to lean against the credit cycle. I want to look at these three approaches for the core and riskiest part of the financial system – leveraged banking – and in particular the use of countercyclical capital buffers for banks. I have some sympathy for the “don’t do it at all” approach.

The use of permanent on-site supervision, the link between off-site supervision and on-site inspections or the powers of the supervisory authority (if any) in relation to accounting regulations, are simply some examples. Differences between national supervisors also exist regarding the availability of data. To give you an example, Central Credit Registers – which in our experience are a highly valuable source of information for prudential supervision purposes – are not yet available in all jurisdictions. The EBA has played a very important role by improving cooperation between national supervisors and promoting supervisory convergence. But these improvements fall short of the needs of an effectively unified supervisory system. Substantial and swift progress in this field is therefore needed. Let me just finish by making a general comment. It is obvious that the creation of a banking union poses enormous challenges for Europe that will require strong political support and effective cooperation among all authorities involved. The good news is that if we look at the process of European integration from a historical perspective, we realise that this is not the first time that the way forward has been highly complex. And, past experience has regularly shown that the response has always been to deepen integration and increase the transfer of national powers to the Union as the best – and possibly only – way to preserve all the achievements made so far. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3