samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
5  For a formal analysis of this point, see Del Negro, M., M. Giannoni and F. Schorfeide (2013), “Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 618. 6  Schwaab, B. (2013): “The impact of the ECB’s forward guidance”, ECB mimeo. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  over the past couple of years. From a total dimension equal to over 32.5% of GDP in June of 2012, our balance sheet has shrunk to 19% in May 2014, as a result of banks’ decision to exercise the early repayment option for outstanding 3-year LTROs. The contraction in the ECB balance sheet is particularly striking when compared to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, which continued expanding from 19% of GDP at the end of 2012 to 25.7 % in May 2014. These developments, which are accompanied by a similar evolution of the respective monetary bases, if jointly interpreted as signals of the relative evolution of future policy rates in the two monetary areas, may have contributed to sustain the appreciation in the exchange rate of the euro which, against the U.S. dollar, went from 1.21 in July 2012 to a peak above 1.39 in May 2014. The lagged impact of the marked euro appreciation played an important role in determining the recent, low inflation outcomes. Since mid-2012 the exchange rate appreciation is estimated to explain a decrease of 0.5 percentage points in our inflation rate.

In addition to this work, let me also mention a few other areas related to financial literacy where the CBC is currently actively involved. First, since 2022 the CBC has assumed a coordinating role for the Global Money Week in Cyprus, a global public-awareness campaign coordinated by the OECD annually, aiming at raising awareness among young people on the importance of strengthening financial literacy, skills, attitudes and behaviours. In fact, this conference is organised in the context of the Global Money Week in Cyprus for 2023. Also, the CBC has recently become a full member of the International Network on Financial Education (INFE) of the OECD, in which it aspires to have an active role in the Network's activities. Finally, I would like to mention that the CBC continues to devote resources on research of this topic, particularly in examining the link between financial literacy and financial stability. According to preliminary findings from the 4th wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey in Cyprus, financially illiterate individuals are 7-11% more likely to have late loan payments, providing evidence on the negative correlation between the level of financial literacy and financial stability risks. The analysis is still work in progress. More extensive results on the issue are expected from further analysis as well as from the new more elaborate survey on which we are collaborating with the OECD.
Thus, we have made progress with regard to improving statistics; research; compliance with EU integration criteria, strengthening 1/8  BIS central bankers' speeches  the governance; and in many other aspects. Lastly, I would like to underline that the Bank of Albania has fulfilled all the recommendations left by the Assembly. The Annual Report presents in greater detail the activity of the Bank of Albania in 2018, across all the dimensions of its activity. I will present first an overview of the activity of the Supervisory Council, the decision-making body, which also monitors the activity of the Bank of Albania. I will then continue to present the activity of the Bank of Albania, in accordance with the main domains of its activity. ***  Activity of the Supervisory Council The Supervisory Council exercises its powers in accordance with the provisions of the organic law and the procedures established in the internal regulation on its organisation and functioning. In 2018, the Supervisory Council met 15 times and approved 76 decisions, of which 55 were acts approved for the first time and 21 were amendments to existing acts. These decisions affect the activity of the Bank of Albania across the board.

In addition to the monetary policy decisions and revisions to regulations that govern the activity of the banking sector, other important decisions include: (i) approval of the policy and measures for increasing the use of the national currency in the activity of banks; (ii) approval of the policy for the oversight of payment and settlement systems;(iii) approval of the accounting policy in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards; and, approval of the Medium-term Development Strategy of the Bank of Albania for 2019–2021. The strategy upheld the existing mission, vision, and values and updated the list of duties for fulfilling them. Beyond the realisation of the legal objectives of the Bank, the Supervisory Council has monitored continuously the governance of the institution and has worked towards its improvement. As the body responsible for the financial reporting and internal audit system, the Council has been informed regularly, by internal and external audit functions, on the compliance with the legislation and other acts that govern the activity of the institution. The Council has been informed also about the institution’s management policies and the use of financial assets for the realisation of the operational activity of the Bank of Albania. Information was presented regularly on the financial position and result of the Bank of Albania and the international reserve management. The internal audit has been monitored through the Audit Committee, established in 2015.
Svein Gjedrem: The outlook for the Norwegian economy Address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the Bergen Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Bergen, 11 April 2007. The text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 15 March and in Monetary Policy Report 1/07. *  *  *  Introduction Monetary policy in Norway is oriented towards low and stable inflation with annual consumer price inflation of close to 2.5 per cent over time. Low and stable inflation provides enterprises and households with an anchor for inflation expectations. Given that there is confidence in the nominal anchor, monetary policy shall also contribute to stable developments in the real economy. Norges Bank therefore operates a flexible inflation targeting regime. This means that weight is given to both variability in inflation and variability in output and employment in interest-rate setting. Flexible inflation targeting builds a bridge between the long-term objective of monetary policy, which is to keep inflation on target and provide an anchor for inflation expectations, and the more short-term objective of stability in the real economy. Low inflation and solid growth in the Norwegian economy Inflation in Norway decelerated markedly from the late-1980s to the mid-1990s and has since been low and stable, and fairly close to, but somewhat lower than the target of 2.5 per cent, with considerably lower variability than earlier.

In a situation with a high level of activity in the Norwegian economy, petroleum revenue spending in the period ahead will be consistent with the fiscal rule if it increases at a slower pace than the expected real return on the Fund. In the next few years, growth in the structural, non-oil budget deficit is assumed to be somewhat lower than implied by the 4 per cent rule. However, public sector demand is still expected to make a positive contribution to total demand and production. The enterprises in the regional network report continued growth in demand and production. Growth picked up towards the end of 2006 and has remained stable into 2007. Suppliers to the petroleum industry report the strongest growth, but there is also strong growth in manufacturing and the service sector. The market outlook for the next six months is favourable, even though enterprises as a whole expect growth to slacken. A lack of spare capacity is an important factor behind expectations of slower growth. Enterprises in both Hordaland and Rogaland report that the cyclical upturn is continuing. However, many industries still reported slightly slower growth than in the previous round. This is true of manufacturing supplying the domestic market and the petroleum sector, the export industry and suppliers of services to the household and business sector. Retail trade, on the other hand, stands out with very high growth rates. Growth in building and construction is on a par with that prevailing toward the end of 2006.
And while no one I think clearly understands just why the euro has been as weak as it has particularly once the Eurozone economy began to pick up from about the middle of last year - the evidence is that it has not had as much to do with a change in relative monetary conditions as between the UK, and the US, on the one hand and the Eurozone on the other as is popularly supposed. It is in fact much more difficult to affect the exchange rate - directly through our domestic monetary policy than you might imagine. Of course we do take full account, in our forecasts and in our policy judgements, of the implications of the exchange rate, and of the international environment more generally, for our own economy. That was why we moved aggressively to cut interest rates a year or so ago. Sterling did not then fall against the euro as you might have expected - it actually rose. Even though we could not change the international environment, we were able to cushion its negative effect on the economy as a whole by providing an offsetting stimulus to the domestic economy. Had we not done so, we might well have suffered recession in the UK. BIS Review 18/2000  2  But the situation now is very different with the economy as a whole has strongly recovered and is now once again, operating close to capacity and apparently continuing to grow at above trend.

Scenarios however, are not projections, predictions or preferences but rather it provides a way of making sense of uncertainties and in addition it challenges our assumptions about what the future holds. Scenario building today is synonymous with thinking broadly and more freely about a problem, enlarging the frames of reference and involving different worldviews, rather than seeing a situation from a single perspective. Essentially scenario planning interventions have been most useful in supporting the construction of multiple frames of future states of possibilities. The process of scenario planning enhances the evaluation and integration of information and promotes contingency planning. Scenarios are also important for risk management. As risk is inherent in any business activity the framework becomes a useful tool in risk assessment and management. Most of all a major risk in the current environment is the lack of preparedness for how the environment might change and for the new challenges that may emerge. To attempt to predict these changes in any specific manner in this environment would be highly speculative. The risk management process therefore involves preparing for, rather than attempting to predict the change. This would promote an increased level of preparedness to cope with the inevitable changes. Scenarios also help to connect strategies and action plans to our visions. Using scenarios will essentially widen our perspectives, increase our understanding of the issues and developments. It also allows us to see opportunities that we may otherwise miss. New developments emerging would be seen from different angles and perspectives.
Equally important is that, inflation targeting has helped restore credibility and has brought transparency to the monetary policy deliberation process. To continue improving communication with the public, the Committee has decided to change the inflation target from core inflation to headline inflation starting this year. The new headline inflation target of 2.5 ± 1.5 percent aims to better reflect the cost of living  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  and public inflation expectations. In practice, however, the monetary policy framework and deliberations will remain the same, irrespective of the choice of the target. Conclusion Allow me to conclude, Key takeaway of my talk is that the growth outlook for this year is more positive than last year’s growth. Due to the Thai economy’s strong fundamentals and resilience, we remain optimistic about the near future. But, it is important to see through much-needed reforms, which would strengthen the country’s foundation for the medium and long term. Thank you very much!

A number of banks, for instance in China, have already started testing digital currencies. We may talk of a global technological revolution in central banks which will create a new form of money. What are the differences between a digital ruble and the currently existing cash and non-cash money forms? Firstly, a digital ruble is an obligation of the Central Bank, and not of commercial banks, which makes it similar to cash rubles. For those holding digital rubles, this implies that they will preserve this money, whatever happens to their banks. Secondly, a digital ruble enables faster and more reliable payments and settlements. We are currently exploring several models to design a digital ruble which organise the interaction between customers, the Central Bank and commercial banks differently, but all the models have these advantages. These are faster, reliable and secure payments. To a certain extent, a digital ruble also blurs the distinction between cash and non-cash payments. We are studying the option of launching offline payments with digital rubles via special-purpose wallets, but this is a challenging issue. This will enable people to pay with digital rubles even where there is no internet connection and they do not have cash. For companies operating in such localities, in remote areas, this option will reduce cash turnover costs. Of course, a digital ruble may also create new risks, and we are closely exploring them.
The disadvantageous levels of human capital compared with those in other developed economies are apparent in both workers and employers. On Eurostat data, in Spain 40.5% of the self-employed, 35.1% of employers and 32.6% of employees have a low educational level, compared with much smaller percentages (24.8%, 20.1% and 19.8%, respectively) in the euro area as a whole. 6  See, for example, D. Acemoglu and P. Restrepo (2018), “The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment”, American Economic Review, vol. 108, pp. 1488-1542. 12/18  Spain also has a shortfall in terms of the proportion of the population with profiles related in some way to disciplines such as engineering or mathematics. For example, 9% of university graduates in Spain have qualifications in mathematics, science or IT, compared with 14% in Germany or 11% in the European Union as a whole. It is also foreseeable that the massive eruption of new technologies will result in greater importance being afforded to non-cognitive skills (such as a desire to innovate, self-control, ability to concentrate, or adaptability to a changing environment),7 in which Spain also performs poorly in the international comparison. It therefore seems advisable to rethink the institutional design of the educational system, the content of the curriculum and the learning system itself. In this respect, it is crucial to treat this project of improving human capital as a collective task.

Having said that, while these gains have so far been based mainly on the moderation of labour and financial costs, in the future they will have to come increasingly from genuine increases in productivity. Long-term growth of the Spanish economy: the challenge of productivity The productivity challenge  The timid gains in productivity seen in the past recession and subsequent recovery proved to be insufficient to close the gap separating us from the core European countries. The limited headway in productivity by the Spanish economy should be a cause for great concern, since productivity gains are the only mechanism which can generate sustained, stable growth of per capita income in the long term. The consensus in this respect in economic circles is practically unanimous, and the repute of the studies in this area is attested to by the Nobel prizes in economics awarded to Robert Solow and Paul Romer in 1987 and 2018, respectively, for their contributions in the fields of productivity and longterm economic growth. A few figures will suffice to illustrate how improvements in a community’s standard of living over the long term depend almost entirely on productivity gains. Thus, for example, 80% of the increase in US per capita income since 1948 can be attributed to the growth of total factor productivity (TFP).2 In other words, increases in TFP of around 2% per year have allowed the average US citizen to enjoy inflation-adjusted annual income which in 2015 was about $ 30,000 higher than in 1948.
As in the past, the currency management policy of the Central Bank will be focused on maintaining quality standards. In this effort, continuous upgrading of security features mainly in high denomination notes, conducting aggressive public awareness programmes, especially for cash handlers of commercial banks, counterfeiting aspects and clean note  12  BIS Review 8/2007  policy will be the main tools in achieving the quality standards. Advocating the clean note policy, the Central Bank presently withdraws unserviceable banknotes from circulation regularly and issues new or serviceable notes through the banking system. Another matter of some concern is the steadily rising outstanding and overdue balances on credit cards. In this regard, the Central Bank intends to introduce prudential guidelines on the issuance and the minimum repayment requirements on credit cards so as to ensure that credit card operations do not threaten financial system stability. At the same time, the Central Bank has noted with satisfaction that the imposition of the 50 per cent margin on DA term imports is deriving its desired results. If this trend continues and the desired outcome is achieved, this measure will be withdrawn by 31st March 2007. In addition to the initiatives and programmes as already enunciated we also believe that the appropriate legal and regulatory framework supporting financial system stability needs to be further strengthened if we are to address potential future issues in a timely manner. Accordingly, suitable amendments are to be proposed to the existing legislation pertaining to banking.

The government’s planned infrastructure projects in the areas of road development, port and airport development, power generation and social infrastructure development, would also facilitate sustainable and broad-based growth. The external sector is expected to perform well in 2007 recording an overall balance of payments surplus of about US dollars 200 million, boosting the level of official reserves to US dollars 2,650 million or about 3 months of imports. Export growth is expected to continue in 2007 at around 10 per cent, benefiting from continuing high growth in the global economy, and opportunities offered by Free Trade Agreements. Imports are projected to grow at a higher rate of 12 per cent, reflecting increased demand for intermediate and investment goods. The Government’s Medium Term Macro Framework (MTMF) enunciated in the Fiscal Management Report 2007, indicates that the overall deficit in 2007 will be contained at around 7.2 per cent of GDP. To meet this target, adjustments have to be introduced in the areas of enhancing revenue through additional measures and improved tax administration, rationalisation of current expenditure and improvements in the government debt management. Public investment will also need to be maintained at a high level to provide complementary capital for private sector investment. In this background, the growth in Reserve money and Broad money for 2007 will need to be clearly targeted to support the smooth functioning of the economy while preventing the build-up of inflationary pressures and expectations.
One can summarise this by saying that we need to better understand, clarify and explain the effects of new monetary policy tools. We are far from alone when it comes to this challenge. The Bank of England recently had to relate to an investigation that emphasised that these elements needed to be developed with regard to QE programmes. 31 We are working continuously on developing our analyses and communication of monetary policy. As I mentioned earlier, I think that the proposal for a new Sveriges Riksbank Act is good in several aspects. This includes the extended scope for the political system to examine our activities. Information, scrutiny and evaluation are central conditions for our strong independence. The world has changed a lot since 1668, but the Riksbank’s monetary policy task has remained a common denominator over the years. If we are to supply a monetary policy with price stability as objective, we need to accept that the conditions change over time and that the tools need to be updated when these changes occur. Independence is a large measure of confidence to hold in trust. Continued freedom with responsibility will enable the Riksbank to contribute to good economic developments going forward. Thank you for listening! 30  See, for instance, Melander (2021) and Di Casola (2021). 31 See Bank of England (2021). 12 [20]  References Alesina, A. and L.H. Summers (1993), “Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

A central element of our independent position in monetary policy is our instrument independence, that we ourselves can decide over these instruments. The monetary policy toolbox develops as a result of new experiences. For instance, we implemented many measures within the space of one week during the initial phase of the coronavirus pandemic. I therefore find it difficult to see the value of restricting the tools in advance, as proposed by the inquiry. It wishes, for instance, to divide the Riksbank’s toolbox into different parts and micro regulate which tools should be used when, where and how. I understand that this may seem like a good idea, but having to motivate and classify possible measures will be very complicated and will encourage passivity and delay the monetary policy response in future crises. The developments in connection with the WHP declaring COVID19 to be a pandemic meant that a full-scale financial tornado blew up within the course of a couple of days. Important to facilitate democratic scrutiny of monetary policy As I mentioned initially, our strong independence entails freedom with responsibility. An extended monetary policy toolbox entails further challenges for us. If we return to Figure 6, we have found ourselves in a situation where our objectives and mandate remain unchanged, but our toolbox has grown. This was a situation that was not so easy to foresee, and it makes new demands of the Riksbank. One challenge in the new environment concerns the link between the monetary policy tools and our objectives having become less clear.