samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
2.0  Recent economic developments  2.1  Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  During the period 2001-2007, growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged about 5.1% per annum, largely due to investment in the mining, tourism, construction and transport  BIS Review 76/2008  1  and agriculture sectors. This has set a strong basis for further favourable economic growth in the medium to long-term. Thus GDP growth is projected to rise by no less than 7.0% in 2008 and beyond. Consistent with the developments in the economy, GDP per capita rose to US $ in 2007 from US $ in 2001. 2.2  Interest rates  Commercial banks’ lending rates have also been declining, though not as fast as the reduction in inflation and Treasury bills rates. For instance, the commercial banks average lending rate fell from 54.6% in December 2001 to 24.4% in December 2007. Lower lending rates are expected in the current environment of low inflation and will contribute to reducing the cost of doing business in Zambia. 2.3  Inflation  Inflation has declined from 18.7% recorded in 2001 to single digit level of 8.2% in 2006 and 8.9% in 2007. It is projected to slow down further to 7.0% by December 2008. This inflation outturn was largely credited to the conduct of appropriate monetary policy coupled with prudent fiscal policy and relative stability of the Kwacha, assisted by lower food prices following the favourable 2005/06 and 2006/07 farming seasons.

Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus: Aiming high - navigating the next stage of Malaysia's development Keynote address by Ms Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the world Bank's Aiming High Webinar Series, 27 May 2021. * * * The Economist magazine recently published an article comparing the welfare of citizens across countries, based on a survey of various aspects of well-being. The title of the article was “Money really can buy happiness and recessions can take it away.” It maintained that citizens in highincome countries felt better off about their current life situation, have money for food, and access to good and affordable housing nearby. Quality of life is also better due to less tangible factors such as corruption not being widespread, feeling safe when walking alone at night, feeling well rested and having helped a stranger in the past month. Implicit in these findings is the idea that economic growth should go hand in hand with greater welfare. More than the dollars and cents of becoming wealthier, it is the improvements in the quality of life that countries aspire to achieve. And so, I was heartened to read in the World Bank’s Aiming High report that Malaysia is likely to transition to a high-income economy between 2024 and 2028. This panel discussion is thus very relevant to our situation, now more than ever. For Malaysia, the journey to become a high-income economy will not be easy.
In any financial market, misconduct is often driven by greed and greed is something no system could be tempered proof. Greed creates mistrust. And mistrust damages confidence. But greed can be mitigated. This can be achieved by establishing a system of consequence management. It is certainly possible to limit or mitigate cases of greed if as a collective, we would not tolerate any case of wrong doing within our community. As a group, we should expect individuals to behave according to the highest professional standards and held accountable for their actions. On this aspect, PPKM had instituted a mechanism to prevent staff with questionable conduct from moving freely between banks without full disclosure of his or her professional history. It is in the interest of the industry that PPKM continue the role as a gatekeeper in setting professional standard with a view to uphold the highest standard of professionalism and conduct among its members. And, this brings me to a third point, we need to enhance market participant’s professional qualification, knowledge and skill set. Financial market is dynamic and evolving, and players need to keep abreast of both domestic and global developments. There are ample financial market courses and programmes offered here in Kuala Lumpur, however majority of these program are still at entry level courses.

Sim Kee Boon helped to chart Singapore’s economic development through the turbulent 1970s, when stagflation and oil price shocks shook the world’s economies. We are living in even more interesting times today. 27. The Institute has gathered an impressive collection of talent here today. I wish you fruitful discussions. Thank you. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
First, should we not have a Trade Repository covering securities lending – a cash market – including the way collateral is employed? We surely need to do something to lift the veil on this vital financing market and, probably, on the collateral swap market more generally. Second, we need to think carefully about the purposes for which the information in TRs is collected, and thus how it is stored. As well as helping to identify market abuse, which of course is a core mission of securities regulators, we need to use the information to track more generally what is going on in markets to help us spot incipient, often slow-moving threats to stability. And even though individual Trade Repositories are being set up to handle specific markets (credit-default swaps, interest-rate swaps etc), it needs to be possible to see the pattern of risk and flows across markets and products. Recognising that,  16  Paris in 1974, Kuala Lumpur in 1983 and, most dramatically, the Hong Kong futures clearing house in 1987. 17  Paragraph 3.21, Report of the Hong Kong Securities Review Committee, 1988. I should disclose that I was an Advisor to the SRC and drafted much of the text submitted to the committee. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  the FSB has called for the relevant authorities, liaising with the BIS Committee of the Global Financial System, to set requirements for reporting of transactions to trade repositories that meet the needs of financial stability analysis.18 This work needs a higher profile.

We ask the FSB and its relevant members to assess regularly implementation and whether it is sufficient to improve transparency in the derivatives markets, mitigate systemic risk, and protect against market abuse.”  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  been distant from the attention of the financial stability authorities, but their integrity has long been a focus for securities regulators. They are especially important in economies where a significant proportion of the intermediation of savings/investment occurs via capital markets rather than via bank balance sheets. If those core capital markets are not resilient to shocks and, crucially, if substitutes are not readily available, disruptions could materially impair the supply of credit and risk-capital to the economy, with macroeconomic and other welfare costs. Equity and high-grade corporate bond markets probably pass that test in a number of developed economies. In the USA at least, some securitisation markets were probably significant too. When the securitisation markets closed, they had become so big in the USA that it was not realistic for that part of the credit system to be reintermediated by the US banking system in short order. Even if the banks had been strong, they would have needed to raise a lot more capital to expand their balance sheets. It is, of course, natural that policy has focused on those markets – securitisation and some OTC derivatives – that featured prominently in the crisis. But we do need to develop a framework for identifying more generally which markets really matter to stability.
Jacqueline Loh: Managing risks in an uncertain world Keynote address by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the 13th Singapore International Reinsurance Conference, Singapore, 3 November 2015. *  *  *  Opening Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. It is my pleasure to join you today at the 13th Singapore International Reinsurance Conference. I believe the theme of this year’s conference, “Managing Risks in an Uncertain World”, is one which will resonate with many of you, as insurers, reinsurers and brokers alike navigate the crosscurrents in the reinsurance industry, in search of profitable growth and better returns. In keeping with the conference theme, I would like to share a few observations on how the Singapore insurance industry can capitalise on the opportunities created by new risks, new client segments, and new markets in Asia. Too much capital finding too little risks Those of you who attended the recent Monte Carlo Rendezvous would have discussed extensively the challenging conditions in the current reinsurance market, which some have warned would be the “new reality”, or the “new normal”. We have seen how structural responses – winning market share from competitors, and bulking up through acquisition of rivals – are largely built on a zero sum game. This becomes a problem when the pie is not growing, as could be the case if the industry does not innovate and create uncontested space.

New risk management and insurance major As the industry seeks out profitable growth and new horizons, it is critical that the right talent and skills are available to support this. In the face of new and emerging risks, as insurance roles evolve and become more complex, different and deeper skillsets will be essential. Skillsets will also need to be widened as technology and financial services converge. To this end, I am glad to announce that the Nanyang Technological University will be launching the Risk Management and Insurance major next year. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Beginning in August 2016, this new Insurance major will be structured as a major specialisation under the NTU Business Degree. It is expected to produce 50 new graduates every year starting from 2018, providing a strong and sustainable talent pipeline to support industry growth. Alongside a robust curriculum, the students will get to build up their research, analytical and modelling capabilities, through working on research projects like the Nat Cat DAX and Cyber Risk Test-bed. Conclusion Insurance will continue to increase its relevance in an uncertain world. In these times of new risks, capital and technology, it is not sufficient to rely on a red ocean strategy. We need to open new horizons, and open them together. MAS will be a partner of the Singapore insurance industry as you forge a blue ocean strategy, manage risks and capitalise on the opportunities in the new reality.
Now an insurance regulator determined to defend the regime we’ve inherited from the EU might say: “yes”. An insurance company executive with a lot of capital being created by this arrangement might say the same. But I think most people, presented with this arrangement and this question, would respond by saying: “maybe, maybe not”. Perhaps some of that extra 3% that the 5% bond pays, relative to the 2% bond, is a reward for extra risk. Perhaps we should not put 100% faith in the fact that the bonds have the same credit rating, given how spectacularly wrong ratings have sometimes been in the past – and noting that for many assets only an internal rating, performed by the firm owning the asset, is available. Perhaps it’s OK that the rules should allow an insurer to bank more up-front from the 5% bond, but we should also make a greater allowance for the possibility that some of that extra return on the 5% bond may be reward for a higher risk of things going wrong. This question might not matter much if this part of our insurance regime didn’t provide capital relief equivalent to two thirds of the entire capital base of our life insurance industry, and didn’t underpin the livelihoods of millions of pensioners. But as it does both of those things, we don’t think “maybe” is a good enough answer.

It is notable that the market requires very different levels of return for assets with the same rating – under the current rules all of this difference is deemed to be risk-free and can be recognised as capital up-front, but it is quite plausible that some of it reflects other risks such as operational ones. Third: the assumption that market moves tell us nothing about credit risk. Under the current system, when the market sells off assets there is approximately zero impact on insurers because the sell-off is treated as being driven solely by liquidity concerns. In other words, when the prices of assets drop in the market the assumption is that there is no information in this about the outlook for future losses. Now in broad terms this is in fact a feature of the regime, not a bug – we want insurers to be able to ride out market shocks, and it is safe for them to do so as long as they have the right cash coming in to meet their commitments to pensioners and other policyholders. However, the current construct is at the most generous possible extreme of the assumptions that can be made in this area; contrary to this assumption, it may sometimes be the case that asset prices are falling because new information has arrived in the market that does indicate that future losses are going to be higher than previously expected – or at the very least that uncertainty over future losses has increased.
I will also reiterate a point I’ve made previously, which is that when we consider whether or not firms are in a position to pay dividends, one of the 2  main quantitative yardsticks we use is capital levels after the benefit of transitionals . In other words, we regard transitionals as creating high quality capital. Given the substantial benefit arising from TMTPs, it is important for both firms and the PRA that their level remains appropriate over time. And there is a mechanism to ensure just that, whereby firms may apply for a recalculation following a material change in their risk profile, or every two years. Our goal is that the maintenance of TMTPs should be as straightforward as possible and not onerous for any of those involved. 3  The PRA recently closed a consultation on proposals for this process and we expect to issue a supervisory statement on the subject later in 2017. Another industry complaint is about the quantity of data firms must report, and the compressed timetables for doing so. It is a plain fact both that the volume of reported data is higher than under the previous regime and that regulatory returns are due to the PRA more quickly. I view both of these things as a significant improvement, which will enable better delivery of the PRA’s objectives of policyholder protection and firm safety and soundness.

To be frank, the situation we sometimes faced as regulators in the past, where firms were unable quickly to tell us their asset exposures, and solvency reviews sometimes occurred 18 months in arrears, was unacceptable, particularly given the fast pace at which serious economic and financial crises can develop in the modern interconnected world. However, I keep an open mind about whether we have struck the right balance – there may be a case for lowering the burden, if it turns out that some of the new reporting doesn’t deliver supervisory benefits commensurate with its cost. We are also investigating the potential for publication of selected statistics to provide an overview for market participants. 2  http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2015/861.aspx CP47/16, issued December 2016, consultation closed 15 March 2017, http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pra/Pages/publications/cp/2016/cp4716.aspx 3  4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  On 16 November 2016, the Bank published its first edition of a new quarterly Statistical Release for the UK 4  banking sector . We are considering the potential for issuing something similar for the UK insurance sector, derived from the data insurers submit to us. We plan to engage with industry soon to discuss what format and content would be of most use and interest, with a first release potentially in the autumn. A third topic of rumbling discontent relates to how easy insurers find it to invest in illiquid assets, and then to receive appropriate regulatory recognition. In my view, there are two quite separate issues at play here.
As Chairman Greenspan said recently, "in retrospect, it is clear that more investment monies flowed into these economies than could be profitably employed at modest risk". 8. The strong Asian growth would have continued but for the fact that global competition in external trade has emerged with newly industrialized and export-oriented economies with cheap labour, such as China, India, Latin American and Eastern Europe. The failure of central planning has brought at least three billion new workers and consumers into the global market. These new markets began to benefit from the growing trade liberalization and inflows of foreign investments, thus putting greater pressure on the markets of the earlier “tigers” of East Asia, leading to a widening of their current account deficits as they continued their investments in infrastructure and real estate. Issues in Asia 9. If we look more closely at the situation in Asia, the economic fundamentals remain intact. Asia has been the fastest-growing region in the world, recording growth rates of around 5%-9%. Asian economies have low inflation rates and exchange rates were stable until recently. Current account for the region as a whole is broadly in balance, while the fiscal account, excluding Japan, is in surplus. Asia has exceptionally high savings rates of above 30% of GDP. Official savings, in terms of foreign currency reserves, were even higher. In Asia, 70% of the inflows contributed to reserve accumulation. As a result, Asian central banks are now holding about 40% of the world’s foreign exchange reserves.

14  See P. Hartmann, F. Heider, E. Papaioannou and M. Lo Duca (2007), “The role of financial markets and innovation in productivity and growth in Europe”, ECB Occasional Paper Series, September, as well as ECB (2007) “Financial integration in Europe”, Frankfurt a.M: ECB. 15  Some authors have calculated that if the average size of capital markets in the European Union was bigger in the United States for instance, it is around 450% of GDP instead of 220% as in the European Union (based on an overall indicator measuring total financing in the economy by aggregating bank credit to the private sector, stock market capitalisation and the outstanding amount of domestic debt securities issued by the private sector) - then annual GDP per capita growth in the European Union could be positively influenced (see G. Favara (2006), “An empirical reassessment of the relationship between finance and growth”, mimeo). BIS Review 18/2008  5  2005, and telephone prices charged by the former monopolies for national and international calls for instance, fell by more than 40% on average in Europe between 2000 and 2006. This supported the purchasing power of consumers, who have now more of their income available to spend on goods and services. Supporting an innovative environment To fully exploit productivity potential, the product market reforms I have just mentioned need to be accompanied by policies that support innovation and technological changes.
In this area, Hong Kong has been one of the first regulatory authorities to issue guidelines that, among other things, require banks to ensure that their internet security platforms are airtight and that risk management systems are properly in place. We have strengthened our supervisory skills and resources to enable us to check that this is being done. This is not going to be an easy process. No-one can predict what directions technical innovation, customer behaviour, or latent practical problems will take. The challenge for regulators like the HKMA is to seek a balance between not allowing these developments to bring unmanageable risk and not stifling the application of useful new technology by holding back innovation. It is a difficult balance to achieve. Too great an interest by the regulator in new initiatives by the bank can often be misunderstood as heavy-handed over-regulation. The answer to the dilemma, clearly, is for regulator and industry to work hand in hand in a constructive way. Our policy in this, as in other areas, is to consult with - and listen to – the industry organisations as well as to the public at large and its representatives. 24. In other areas of its work, the HKMA has itself become something of a pioneer and is currently a clear leader in this time zone. Of particular importance here is our work on financial infrastructure. This is how we look at the matter.

7. How do banking and finance fit into all of this? We expect to see two main developments over the next few years. The first is the greater demand for banking services resulting from the growing volume of business that will follow WTO accession. The second is the financial deepening, stimulated by more rapid financial liberalisation, greater banking competition, and product innovation induced by the terms of WTO accession. These developments will accelerate the reforms already in train within China’s domestic banking sector – reforms that cover the whole spectrum of banking management and services from corporate governance to the professional training of staff. The developments will also progressively open China’s business environment to competition from banks from outside the Mainland. In two years’ time, foreign banks will be able to conduct RMB business with Chinese enterprises in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Dalian. Within five years, they will be able to deal with all Chinese enterprises without any geographical restriction. The advantages for banks with a base in Hong Kong are obvious. Many of them have a head start on the Mainland, with networks of branches and more than a generation of practical experience. They also have all the advantages of geographical proximity, a common language and culture, yet separate financial and legal jurisdictions that Hong Kong’s unique position in China brings. Forty per cent of the Mainland’s trade is routed through Hong Kong. Hong Kong is the Mainland’s largest source of foreign direct investment and China’s main financial conduit and funding centre.