samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The CCB should increase resilience by ensuring that an additional buffer of capital is built up gradually during the boom, a buffer that can then be released to cushion losses in an eventual downturn. It thus limits the threat of vicious fire-sale spirals. Moreover, by increasing the relative cost of providing credit, the CCB should help to lean against the build-up of excesses. In addition, the buffer is designed in such a way that it can be implemented on a broad basis or can target specific segments of the credit market only. Currently, for instance, signs of a build-up of excesses in the Swiss credit market merely relate to the domestic mortgage and residential real estate markets. Thus, if the buffer were to be activated, it would be aimed solely at this segment of the credit market. Not least, a CCB is one of the key components of the reforms of international financial regulation (Basel III framework). It will be introduced by most countries within the next few years. In this context, criticism has been raised that an early introduction of the CCB would cause competitive disadvantages for the Swiss financial sector in international comparison. For various reasons, this criticism is invalid. First, the CCB will be activated only if deemed necessary; most of the time, it is likely to remain turned off. Second, if activated, the CCB would be applicable to Swiss banks and to subsidiaries of foreign banks in Switzerland, ensuring a level playing field.

Jean-Pierre Danthine: Taming the financial cycle Speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Danthine, Vice Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the 30th SUERF Colloquium, Zurich, 5 September 2012. *  *  *  Introduction The global financial crisis has been weighing heavily on the world economy since 2007. The crisis was severe. In most advanced countries, the recovery has been weak in historical comparison. Many of these economies are struggling hard to regain the jobs lost during the last four years (slide 1).1 The crisis originated in the bursting of a house price bubble driven by an excessive credit expansion in the US, which eventually pushed the global financial system to the brink of collapse. In some countries, such as Spain or Ireland, the crisis was further compounded by the bursting of their own housing bubbles. In this regard, the current crisis is an excellent example. Historical evidence shows that the macroeconomic cost of an asset price bubble that bursts is particularly severe when the property market is affected. Moreover, such events tend to be more costly when the bubble is financed through credit and when leveraged financial institutions are directly involved.2 Switzerland has been less affected by the recent crisis and has recovered more quickly from it. There is no room for complacency, however. The recovery has been boosted by a thriving housing market and strong credit growth. In the wake of this, the medium-term risk to financial stability has been increasing.
Second, the recent data suggest that the downtrend in the inflation rate may be coming to an end. For example, the core personal consumption expenditures deflator rose at a higher rate over the past three months than during any other 3-month period since mid-2012. Third, measures of longer-term inflation expectations, whether discerned from financial asset prices or from surveys of households or professional forecasters, remain well anchored at levels consistent with our 2 percent objective. This is important because inflation expectations are a major determinant of the inflation process. As long as inflation expectations stay well-anchored, it will be hard for inflation to fall further. Putting these factors together along with my forecast of a gradual pickup in real economic activity, my outlook is for inflation to drift back toward our 2 percent objective over the medium term. However, much like the case of the real growth outlook, there is significant uncertainty around this forecast. Monetary policy So what does this all imply for monetary policy? As you are aware, at last week’s FOMC meeting we made no changes to our monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided to continue to purchase long-term Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  at a monthly pace of $ billion and $ billion, respectively.

Euromoney Conferences: The Greater Mekong Investment Forum “Confidence in Connectivity of the GMS” Speech by Dr. Veerathai Santiprabhob, Governor of the Bank of Thailand Bangkok, June 1, 2017 Excellencies, Distinguished Speakers, Ladies and Gentlemen. A very good morning to you all. Let me first thank Mr. Tony Shale, the CEO of Euromoney Asia, for organizing this conference and inviting me to join you once again this year. It is always a great pleasure to speak at the GMS Investment Forum. Let me also extend a warm welcome to those of you who travelled from abroad. *** Ladies and gentlemen, Established way back in 1992, the GMS marks a quarter of a century milestone this year. To me, the GMS today is like a promising 25-year-old graduate from a prestigious university, full of energy and potential, on her way to making a mark in her career. The GMS is a dynamic region, linked by the richness of the great Mekong river, with abundant endowments and opportunities awaiting to be further explored. Last year, I expressed my confidence in the future of the GMS, as a result of synergy and connectivity that had been harnessed over the years. Today, I would like to once again reiterate the importance of regional connectivity, as prospects for trade and investment opportunities in the GMS have improved with a more positive global economic outlook.
Øystein Olsen: The conduct of monetary policy Introductory statement by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the hearing before the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs of the Storting (Norwegian parliament), Oslo, 14 May 2018. * * *  Accompanying slides Thank you for this opportunity to report on the conduct of monetary policy. My introduction here today is based on Norges Bank’s Annual Report for 2017 and our monetary policy assessments up to the monetary policy meeting at the beginning of May. The various components of economic policy must interact to achieve sound and stable economic developments over time – with high employment and low unemployment. The primary objective of monetary policy is to maintain monetary stability. Since 2001, the operational target of monetary policy has been low and stable inflation. This has been retained in the new regulation on monetary policy issued by the Government on 2 March this year. The regulation clarifies the monetary policy mandate and will not result in significant changes in the conduct of monetary policy. I will return to this topic later, but first of all I would like to go back to just over a year ago. At the beginning of 2017, the level of spare capacity in the Norwegian economy was still fairly high and there were prospects that inflation could remain below the inflation target in the coming years. International interest rates were very low.

The outlook suggests that it will soon be appropriate to raise the key policy rate – and this is a good sign. Thank you for your attention. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
Where they exist, that’s  2017-19 Average  consistent with the current pattern of forward prices,  350 300 250  as you can see from both Chart 1, for wholesale  200  gas, and Chart 12 for shipping costs. (For what it’s  150  worth, the spot price of shipping containers, plotted  100  as the red line in Chart 10, has actually declined in  50  recent weeks, down nearly 30% from its peak in mid-September.) It’s therefore quite possible that, in a couple of years, the contribution of some of these items to UK inflation will be not only smaller but negative. Sources: Baltic Exchange and Bank calculations. Panamax is a sub-index covering mid-sized vessels travelling on 5 of the 23 shipping routes of the full index. It co-moves closely with the overall Baltic Exchange Dry Index. Having said all that, there’s no doubt that the path of these global goods prices is highly uncertain. Even if it’s still the right judgement that recent inflation rates are “transitory”, in the sense I defined earlier, that doesn’t mean our central forecasts are an inevitability. In the last Monetary Policy Report the MPC produced two forecasts for inflation, one in which gas prices followed the full path priced into financial markets, and therefore fell steeply throughout the next three years, another in which they stabilised at a relatively high level.

So that spark in Pudding Lane ignited much more besides the Great Fire itself: –  the provision of liquidity to limit contagion;  –  a recognition that clear, well-understood codes contribute to the greater good; and  –  a belief that financial markets can solve real world problems. From the coffee houses that served as meeting places for entrepreneurs and merchants; to the exchanges that supported the trading of financial claims; to a central bank that acted as lender of last resort: a rich infrastructure developed to support markets that served the UK and the world. As it grew into the world’s leading economic and trading power, the UK also became its centre of financial capitalism. By the early 20th century, though no longer the world’s largest economy, the UK was still its hub of international finance. It held close to a half of the world’s stock of overseas investments and traded one third of all negotiable instruments. The City has retained its pre-eminence through market innovation. From eurobonds to emerging market debt, credit derivatives and centralised clearing; the City has continually created new financial products and markets to serve the real economy. Today the City remains the leading global financial centre. The UK is the venue for 40% of foreign exchange trading volume, half of all trades in OTC interest rate derivatives, and more than two-thirds of trading in international bonds.
Jean-Claude Trichet: The economic situation in France and the euro area  Speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, Governor of the Banque de France, at the press conference of the Monetary Policy Council of the Banque de France on 20 December 2000. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, Allow me to welcome you on behalf of the Monetary Policy Council of the Banque de France. As the euro stands on the threshold of its third year, I shall discuss in the name of our MPC the economic situation in France and the euro area, before commenting upon the latest monetary policy decisions made by the Eurosystem. Activity advanced at a sustained pace in the euro area The upturn experienced by the euro-area economies in the first half of 1999 continued and strengthened throughout 2000. Foreign trade contributed significantly to the rebound. In addition, the euro area benefited from a marked improvement in domestic demand, with household consumption increasing at a fast clip before stabilising at a high level in the third quarter. At the same time, good borrowing conditions and the prospect of robust demand, coupled with a substantial increase in the use of production capacity and improved corporate profitability, gave investment a strong boost. According to the most recent estimates, the conjunction of these auspicious developments should translate into 3.4% growth in euro-area GDP in 2000.

Before the euro, national economic policies were based on the close monitoring of several indicators such as the trade balance, the balance of payments, the exchange and interest rates. Policymakers thus constantly received information on the markets’ main reactions to shifts in economic policy and were strongly encouraged to take them into account where relevant. With the introduction of the euro, some of these indicators have either disappeared at the domestic level or their impact has been severely limited. Of course, the indicators continue to exist for the euro area as a whole, hence the importance of the Treaty's provisions on the co-ordination of fiscal and economic policies. Nevertheless, the rules of the market economy continue to apply to each Member State of Monetary Union as well as to the Union as a whole. At the national level therefore, economic policymakers need to be even more vigilant than before regarding the indicators of competitiveness. These data, which focus on trends in unit labour costs, the quality of the regulatory and tax framework and, more generally, an economic, legal and tax environment conducive to the creation and dynamism of companies, represent the main indicators shaping monetary domestic policies in the Monetary Union. The level of unit production costs is of primary importance. It would be a serious mistake to forget this in the context of a buoyant economy.
It is not a coincidence that this period has overlapped with the rise of attention paid to good governance. One may just look at the number of occurrences of the word “governance” in academic search database (Econ-Lit) over time. It occurred just five times from 1970 to 1979, 100 times in the 80s, 4000 times in 1990s, and more than 10000 times since 2000. Globalization of economic activity and greater reliance on private sector in economic decisions has created an environment in which the pursuit of efficiency has acquired utmost  BIS Review 38/2008  1  importance. Globalization has increased the likelihood of international financial crisis in countries where the governments do not function properly. Economic crisis in South Eastern Asia in late 1990s showed that even countries with considerable success in economic development may easily collapse into turmoil if they do not follow good governance practices. Quite paradoxically, as the control of governments over the economy decreases, the quality of governance becomes more critical and decisive. With greater mobility of capital, countries have become more vulnerable to negative assessment of investors. Today, financial markets are facing the most acute crisis they have experienced since the emergence of globalization. It is not surprising that good governance is once again at the center of public debate at this juncture. The seeds of current problems may be traced to past governance practices of governments, monetary authorities, financial institutions, and corporate sector. But before that, let me first introduce some conceptual issues.

Miroslav Singer: Czech central bank head sees lowered risk of deflation – interview in The Wall Street Journal Interview with Mr Miroslav Singer, Governor of the Czech National Bank, in The Wall Street Journal, conducted by Paul Hannon on 11 October 2014. *  *  *  The threat of a slide into deflation or a long period of very low inflation in the Czech Republic has diminished, the head of the country’s central bank said Saturday, although he intends to maintain the weak-koruna policy at least into the start of 2016. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, Miroslav Singer said he had been encouraged by the stimulus measures announced by the European Central Bank since June, since he had expected it to take longer to react to very low inflation rates. Mr. Singer also said that he was confident the central bank could bring its weak-koruna policy to an end without risking a “snapback,” or a sharp strengthening of the currency. The Czech Republic is a member of the European Union, but has chosen not to use the euro. It does have close economic ties to the currency area and particularly Germany. As a result, low growth and low inflation in the eurozone have been a big problem for the central bank.
Because you are well aware that the BNB makes no compromises with safety. The President of the Republic of Bulgaria is present today, so I am tempted to take advantage and draw the attention of the responsible State institutions to some significant gaps in the commercial legislation. Legal and subjective obstacles get in the way of reducing the share of non-performing loans. Bulgaria is no exception among the countries of Central and Eastern Europe where the winding-up and insolvency proceedings, as well as the sale of the collateral, are relatively more sluggish. Regretfully, in Bulgaria the cases of unethical debtors taking advantage of some weaknesses of the existing insolvency proceedings, which allow them to manipulate the initial date of insolvency and nullify the pieces of collateral  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  pledged after that date, are becoming more and more frequent. The problems with the insolvency and winding-up court proceedings in the corporate sector inhibit the rehabilitation of banks’ books (i.e. that part of banks’ balance sheet assets which has been hit the hardest during the crisis). This prolongs the procedures and increases the costs for managing the so-called “bad loans”, which negatively affects banks’ capacity to take new credit risk at an acceptable cost. Hampering the lending processes in turn impedes the economic growth in the country, and hence – employment and people’s living standards.

As regards monthly growth in prices of non-food goods and services, it held close to or below 4% in annual terms in March-May. Fourth. We factored in that inflation expectations of households and businesses remain elevated against both the inflation target and the minimum levels reached in the opening months of 2018. Inflation expectations show mixed dynamics. Business price expectations continued to decline in April-May. Inflation expectations of households came in at 9.3-9.4% during this period. However, we expect that inflation decline to 4% will bring down inflation expectations of households and businesses. Analysts’ expectations remain anchored at the inflation target of close to 4%. Fifth. Monetary conditions are softening. This is driven by changing expectations of domestic and external financial market players. First, this is enabled by revised expectations as to the path of the Bank of Russia key rate; second, by an adjustment in expectations and yields in the external financial market against the background of changes in major central banks’ rhetoric – which I have mentioned. OFZ yields are declining in this environment, enabling a potential reduction in deposit and lending rates. Between April and May, a number of major banks revised downwards their interest rates on several deposit products; interest rates on mortgage loans were also beginning to trend down. Today’s decision to cut the key rate alongside the signal we have sent out will work to solidify these trends. Medium-term outlook. The outcome of OPEC+ negotiations remains uncertain.
5  BIS Review 33/2000  Some people in the Eurozone acknowledge these concerns, but they are inclined to argue that if a country participating in the monetary union were to find itself in an unsustainable situation and given that it would have no macroeconomic way out - through exchange rate adjustment, or independent monetary policy action, or fiscal stimulus beyond the limits of the Growth and Stability pact - and given limited labour migration or fiscal redistribution at the pan-European level - then it would have an overwhelming incentive to undertake the supply-side reforms which have proved so difficult to introduce up until now. One of my ECB colleagues in fact once put it to me that - “when we have closed off every other policy option, we will finally be forced to do the things we know that we should have done all along!” I hope that this proves to be right and that it does help ease the tensions. Supply-side flexibility within Europe is crucial in my view not just to the success of the euro, but to the success of the European economy in a much broader sense - to the resolution of Europe’s chronic unemployment problem and to the contribution which a strong European economy can make to the whole of the world economy.

6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  6  On a personal note, I will greatly miss your deep technical expertise, open-mindedness, wisdom, good humour and friendship. Today isn’t really goodbye but au revoir. Because, whether it is the financial system or as colleagues, we know the future will be better if we stay connected. 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7
We lowered the policy rate and widened the corridor between overnight borrowing and lending rates so as to allow fluctuations in the short-term interest rates, when needed. This policy so far has been quite effective. We observed a significant drop in the short term speculative inflows. In addition, In addition, we differentiated Turkish lira required reserve ratios according to the maturity structure of deposits in order to lengthen the maturity structure of liabilities and reduce the maturity mismatch. Of course, one crucial communication issue not to be neglected during this process is convincing the public that these measures do not mean giving up on our primary mandate, which is price stability. Accordingly, we used a cautious tone for the inflation outlook. We have explicitly stated that, given the rapid pace of domestic demand and rising commodity prices, general price setting behavior should be closely monitored. In this respect we have forcefully signaled that the net impact of the macroprudential policy package implemented – and to be implemented – both by the CBT and other institutions should be on the tightening side. We anticipate the hikes in required reserve ratios to curb the credit growth through the cost and liquidity channels. Needless to say, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the timing and the extent of the impact of our measures.

In order to overcome the possible communication problems associated with this uncertainty, we have announced that we will monitor the effects of our decisions from both price stability and financial stability perspectives, and do not hesitate to implement additional measures if necessary. Although it looks quite complicated at first sight, the framework we adopt in spirit is not significantly different from the conventional inflation targeting framework. The only difference is that, previously our policy instrument was the one week repo rate, but now our instrument is a “policy mix” – which consists of a combination of short term interest rates, reserve requirement ratios and interest rate corridor. We seek to use these instruments in the right  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  combination in order to cope with both inflation and macro-financial risks. The monetary policy stance in this framework is not only determined by the path of policy rates, but as a mixture of all the policy instruments, as I just mentioned. Just like the conventional inflation targeting framework, the policy is forward looking and contingent on economic outlook. The course of the policy mix in the forthcoming period will depend on the factors affecting price stability and financial stability. In sum, we are going through a period in which central banks policies have to be creative in dealing with the “new normal”. However, it is also important to consider country specific features in designing these strategies.