samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Boehm, C.E., Flaaen, A. and Pandalai-Nayar, N. (2019), “Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 101, No 1, MIT Press, March, pp. 60-75. 5. Lagarde, C. (2022), “A new global map: European resilience in a changing world”, keynote speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., 22 April. 6. Hamilton, J.D. (2011), “Historical Oil Shocks”, NBER Working Paper Series, No 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, February. 7. Bachmann, R. et al. (2022), “How it can be done”, ECONtribute Policy Brief, No 34. 8. Kuik, F., Morris, R. and Sun, Y. (2022), “The impact of climate change on activity and prices – insights from a survey of leading firms”, Economic Bulletin, Issue 4, ECB. 9. McKinsey (2021), “How COVID-19 is reshaping supply chains”, 23 November. 10. During US recessions from the 1950s to the 1980s, inventory investment accounted for 1.4 percentage points of the average 2% peak-to-trough decline in real GDP. See Piger, J.M. (2005), “Is the Business Cycle Still an Inventory Cycle?”, Economic Synopses, No 2, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 11. Lagarde, C. (2022), “Monetary policy normalisation in the euro area”, The ECB Blog, 23 May. 12. The Governing Council has (i) decided to flexibly reinvest maturing securities under the pandemic emergency purchase programme, and (ii) launched a new transmission protection instrument. 13. These are the median figures across recessions. 14.

When inflation is high for a long period of time, an important role for monetary policy is to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored as the shocks work their way through the economy. If expectations become de-anchored and trigger a wage-price spiral, it can lead to inflation becoming persistent even after the shocks disappear. Raising interest rates has a mechanical effect on demand and inflation, and thereby on inflation expectations. But when interest rates are starting from unusually low levels, rate hikes are more powerful if they also create signalling effects that influence expectations directly. In this context, especially compared with the traditional focus on 25 basis-point increments, adjusting the pace of rate hikes is a key tool to signal our determination to fulfil our mandate and keep inflation expectations contained. And moving faster at the start of the hiking cycle clearly conveys our commitment to bring down inflation to our medium-term target. At present, inflation expectations remain relatively well anchored across a range of measures. But there are two reasons why it would be unwise to take this for granted. First, the shock is severely affecting the prices of those consumption items, such as groceries and petrol, that have the greatest influence on households’ inflation expectations. [15] The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey shows that, since February this year, both mean and median expectations for inflation three years ahead have risen by around 1 percentage point.
One of the fundamental tenets of risk management is that banks need to create provisions to absorb expected losses and to have sufficient capital to absorb unexpected losses. Accordingly, capital and provisions are an essential part of any supervisory framework. I believe Basel II reinforces the need to implement sound policies in both areas. In this respect, it is important to analyse provisions and capital over at least one complete economic cycle. Moreover, a range of potential future scenarios, with an emphasis on stress scenarios, should be considered, taking into account past experience and current conditions. Indeed, Basel II requires banks adopting the more advanced approaches to credit risk to apply a forward-looking approach to credit risk management by meaningfully stress testing their credit portfolios. Gaining room for manoeuvre and shoring up finances during good times in the business cycle is not only prudent policy, but is also consistent with sound risk management. Many would say that risks increase during bad times, but I believe this is only partly true. In my view, the exposures of banks, and therefore their risks, actually increase during economic upturns. These risks may not materialise until times of difficulty, but the seeds are generally planted during good times. In sum, when designing their capital and provisioning strategies, managers should have the aim of strengthening banks during good times and should remember that the imbalances that foster financial instability usually build up during the best parts of the economic cycle.

That, in sum, is what Basel II is all about. I believe that the incentives for better risk management that are built into the new capital framework, and the flexibility to adapt the framework to local needs, will ensure its validity. I also believe it marks a major step forward in the right direction, and that it will contribute to a more resilient and stable banking system that is capable of promoting sustainable economic growth. The Committee recently announced its intention to verify that Basel II meets our long-stated objective of maintaining the overall level of capital in the banking system while keeping incentives to adopt the most advanced and risk-sensitive approaches. As a result we intend to conduct a fifth Quantitative Impact Study, or QIS 5, in the last quarter of this year. It is important to understand sooner rather than later what the impact of the framework will be. The Basel Committee will continue its work based on the existing timetable, and supervisors and bankers planning to implement Basel II should continue their preparations accordingly. Banking supervision and financial stability Let me turn now to my second topic, which is the link between effective banking supervision and financial stability. I’m sure we can all agree that a stable banking system is critical to the long-term growth of an economy. But discussing financial stability issues is always a challenge because we don’t have a framework for financial stability as comprehensive as in the case of price stability.
But it certainly shows this can be done, with great efficiency, by proper internal adjustment. Second, both aggregate and country-based data do not point to widespread and inevitable unsustainability in peripheral Europe. The euro area’s aggregate budget deficit will stand around 4.1% in 2011, less than half that of the UK or the US. The same holds true for public debt, which amounts 85% in the euro area while it will soon cross the 100% mark in the US. The euro area is also the only major currency union with its external accounts in balance, which is an essential element of robustness and a strong guarantee of long-term solvency. Peripheral countries are also improving their fundamentals. The primary deficit of Spain for 2011 will be around 4.7%, half that of the US and the UK. Italy will be one of the very few advanced economies to have a primary surplus, around 0.5%. Both countries announced and adopted major fiscal consolidation and structural reform plans aimed at balancing their budget by 2013. Ireland provides the perfect example that a country with very high deficit and interest rates can reverse the trend if it makes the necessary efforts. The Irish deficit will fall from 32% in 2010 to around 10% in 2011, exceeding the requirements of the EU-IMF programme. At the same time, growth is back and will probably be around 2% this year. The third issue is more subtle. It relates to solvency and liquidity.

This mechanism which uses crude palm oil as the underlying commodity will facilitate Islamic financing applying the concept of murabahah or tawarruq. BNM commodity murabahah acceptance As part of these efforts to promote development of products to meet the diversified requirements of investors, Bank Negara Malaysia is pleased to announce the introduction of a new Islamic monetary instrument, Commodity Murabahah Programme (CMP) as part of its diverse range of policy instruments in managing the short-term liquidity in the Malaysian Islamic inter-bank money market. Unique to Malaysia is that the CMP is designed to be the first ever commodity-based transaction that utilises the Crude Palm Oil based contracts as its underlying asset. The Bank has executed CMP master agreements with the eight Islamic banking institutions including the three foreign owned banking institutions to promote the use of the instrument for liquidity management. Several CMP transactions have now been conducted between the Central Bank and the respective Islamic Banks. As commodity murabahah is widely used in other Islamic centres, it is envisaged that this CMP will promote increased linkages between Malaysia and these centres. BNM Sukuk Murabahah/tawaruq short-term securities The Central Bank also intends to diversify the issuance concept of the existing Islamic monetary notes from being based on Bai Inah and Ijarah into murabahah. Currently, the outstanding amount of the respective notes is RM 8 billion. This initiative is the continuation from the commodity murabahah acceptance initiative as the issuance involves the securitisation of the acceptance facility.
When many banks encounter problems at the same time, history shows that the authorities have little recourse other than to help them. In that case, being different brings little gain. When they are all in the same boat, bank executives can easily argue that the problems were not self-inflicted. However, the loss associated with being different is considerable if a bank is alone in encountering problems. The result is that banks engage in herd behaviour and the risk in the financial system becomes excessive. So far I have spoken about how various forms of market failure in the banking system lead to systemic risk that is higher than what is socially optimal. The level of credit in the economy may also become excessive. The economy then becomes vulnerable. The reason is external effects between banks and the wider economy. Loan collateral can give rise to such external effects. One reason banks demand collateral is because they do not have complete information about loan applicants. The collateral value is a security and a restriction on the amount that can be borrowed. When overall credit increases, the value of residential and non-residential property rises. Other economic agents experience a rise in their own collateral values, which they then use to borrow more. But rapid credit growth increases the risk of a deep economic downturn. The interaction can go into reverse. Borrowers that have to sell the collateral to deleverage, push down the collateral values of other borrowers.

•  Many blue chip companies as well as government agencies have issued bonds. 45. But retail participation in corporate bond market has been low. •  It is costly for bond issuers to tap retail market. •  Minimum lot sizes are at least $  46. MAS and SGX are reducing cost of retail bond issuance and making it easier for retail investors to buy corporate bonds listed on SGX. •  Bond Seasoning Framework and Exempt Bond Issuer Framework will allow eligible corporate issuers to issue bonds to retail investors at lower cost in minimum denominations of $ while ensuring sufficient safeguards for investors. •  Proposals for both initiatives have been put out for public consultation and response has been positive. •  MAS will finalise and announce rules soon. Expanding ETF options 47. Equity investment offers potential for higher returns compared to regular savings and fixed income products. But investing in individual stocks entails higher risks and exposure to market volatility. 48. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can be low-cost way for investors to gain exposure to basket of underlying equities to build a well-diversified investment portfolio. ETFs also give investors exposure to various asset classes including bonds and commodities. 49. MAS has made it easier for retail investors to access more ETFs. •  Previously, all ETFs using derivatives were classified as complex or Specified Investment Products (SIP) – they could only be sold to retail investors with enhanced safeguards.
A few years ago Japanese bankers used to tease me by asking what I thought of the “Wimbledonisation” of the City - meaning that this country organised the best competition in the world but the visitors carried off the prizes. I used to explain to them that it was activity - rather than nationality of ownership or even control - that mattered in terms of the City’s contribution to the wider economy, and in terms of its direct contribution to growth or employment, or BIS Review 134/1999  2  of income or tax base in this country; I even suggested that Tokyo would benefit as a financial centre if it became more open to overseas players. I don’t think that they were convinced at the time. But now that has begun to happen, and some of my Japanese banker friends tell me they finally see the point. It is in fact of course more generally a lot harder to see the benefits of increasing global competition if you are an existing producer, whether an individual business or the national representatives of businesses directly in the firing line than if you are looking at it in terms of the health of the macro-economy. But there is no doubt that it is this characteristic of openness to competition perhaps above all that explains the uniquely international nature of the City (with more foreign banks represented here than in any other centre) and accounts for much of the City’s continuing success.

I have already mentioned the uncertainty surrounding international developments. Another uncertainty factor concerns developments in the labour market, which in turn are related to productivity growth. On the whole it is likely that there will be reason to revise up somewhat the inflation forecast compared with the May Inflation Report. Inflation a couple of years ahead can nevertheless be expected to be roughly in line with the Riksbank’s target. But as economy activity continues to strengthen, which is likely to imply less idle resources in the economy, there is reason to expect gradually rising inflationary pressures. Thank you! 6  BIS Review 51/2004
First, we have a government which has the capacity to think long term and implement tough policies to resolve problems and transform the economy. The government is not bogged down by disruptive and unproductive domestic political pit fights. Our basic economic strategy is right; our implementation good. We are moving up the value chain to more technology- and knowledge-intensive manufacturing. We are growing our services sector in areas like tourism, healthcare, education, banking and insurance. We are pumping money and talent into R & D. We have enlarged our economic space through FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) and moved into new areas like the Middle East. Foreign Minister George Yeo has just visited Libya and Yemen, the first Singapore Minister to do so. At the right time, I will go there too to strengthen our relations. Minister Mentor is himself engaging Russia and Kazakhstan to open up business opportunities. And if there are opportunities in North Korea, we will go there too. I dare say that our Ministers are not just good at forging relations but also enterprising like businessmen. Second, we have intelligent, hard-working and adaptable people. They know the world has changed and is constantly changing. They know they must run ahead of the pack in order not to be eaten by  BIS Review 55/2007  1  the proverbial lion. Some Singaporeans grumble and complain about the government and its tough policies but basically, they are nagging the government to listen to them more. Singaporeans are pragmatic and disciplined.

In tribute to the Governor, as I know that Fernando Pessoa is one of his favourite poets, I'd like to quote his “Odes by Ricardo Reis”, in which he reminds us of the importance of being truly committed to our work. “To be great, be whole: don’t exaggerate Or leave out any part of you. Be complete in each thing. Put all you are Into the least of your acts." Thank you all for being here. 5/5
Shkëlqim Cani: The monetary programme of 2004 - its cohabitation with the fiscal policy Discussion by Mr Shkëlqim Cani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, in the Parliamentary Commission of Economy, Finance and Privatizations, Tirana, 15 December 2003. * 1. *  *  2003 in figures  The Albanian economy during 2003 seems to have returned to its potential growth rates, leaving behind the deceleration of 2002. Various indicators generally point out that the economic growth forecast for 2003 - of about 6 percent - is a real opportunity. Developments such as: stability in the agricultural production, the positive performance in the branches of services, industry and transport, the increase of the trade transactions volume verified in the first 6 months of the year, the greater number of tourists, the stable and favourable energy situation, stability of remittances and other factors, are reliable arguments in achieving the economy growth objective. 2003 is believed to mark another year of the consumption price stability. As in the 3-4 previous months, the Bank of Albania’s expectations speak about an annual inflation rate within the target interval of 2-4 percent. According to the latest data, the 12-month difference of consumption price index by the end of November 2003, marked the figure of 3.4 percent, while the annual inflation, calculated as the average of the last twelve months, reached the level of 2.24 percent, reinforcing thus its clear downward trend.

Let me emphasise that the key message I want to give you today is one of stability and consistency in our overall approach. We have all faced a lot of change and uncertainty, especially over the last year – but I want to assure you that our supervisory approach remains both stable over time and consistent across the firms we supervise. It remains both robust and proportionate. Why now? We are publishing this now, for three main reasons:  1. First, to set out our approach to host supervision in a holistic way. We published our approach to branches in 2018 but this publication goes further and covers the full range of authorisation options available to international banks. By making clear our expectations we will provide transparency for all parties. Existing firms, new and transitioning firms, and home regulators. 2. Second, there remains strong interest from international banks seeking a banking licence in the UK. Since 2013, we have approved 24 new subsidiaries and branches including the branches of some of the largest banks in the world and the first UK subsidiary of a Jamaican bank. Despite the Covid crisis, the pipeline of firms approaching us to seek authorisation remains strong. 1  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/prudential-regulation/supervisory-statement/2018/ss118 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  2  3. Finally, the transition period following the United Kingdom (UK)’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) has ended. This has meant some substantial changes to the firms we supervise:  a.
Panel 1 shows a summary of the Fed’s assets and liabilities, as they are today. Substantially all of the $ trillion of assets consist of Treasuries and agency MBS. On the other side of the balance sheet, the Federal Reserve has three main categories of liabilities: $ trillion of bank reserves and other deposits, $ trillion of paper currency, and about $ billion of reverse repos. Before the crisis, the balance sheet was much smaller, at around $ billion. It reached its present size as a result of the FOMC’s large-scale asset purchase programs. Those programs were undertaken to support the economic recovery by easing financial conditions to a greater extent than could be achieved solely through reducing the federal funds rate, once that instrument became limited by the zero lower bound on interest rates. These asset purchases 2/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  greatly increased the size of the asset portfolio, and equally increased the size of the Federal Reserve’s liabilities, largely through growing the stock of bank reserves.5 The composition of the balance sheet also changed. On the asset side, the most important compositional changes were the addition of agency MBS and a substantial increase in the maturity of the Fed’s Treasury holdings. For many years, the FOMC has made it clear that it did not intend for these changes to the balance sheet to remain forever.

Through these changes, the New York Fed is seeking to expand and diversify the pool of firms eligible to apply for primary dealer status, while also recognizing that a certain scale of activity is needed in order to be able to meet the many business obligations to which primary dealers must commit, in supporting the operations of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. These changes offer the opportunity to increase capacity and further support competitive pricing for the Fed’s open market operations. Going forward, the New York Fed will periodically review its counterparty policy. Turning to monetary policy, at the conclusion of its September policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it would begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve’s securities portfolio.2 Over the past month, the Fed took the first steps in a multiyear effort to bring the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to its longer-run size, by not reinvesting a portion of the securities repayments it received. In the remainder of my prepared remarks today, I will offer my views on this policy from a financial markets perspective, drawing on a fuller set of remarks I delivered last month, which can be found on the New York Fed’s website.3 1/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  The message I’d like to leave you with today is one of confidence.