samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the supply-side problems and led to a further surge in prices for a range of commodities. Since summer, reduced gas supply from Russia to Europe, combined with an unusually hot, calm and dry summer, has pushed up gas and electricity prices to very high levels. This has also led to higher energy prices in Norway. Chart: Inflation is broadly based With Norwegian businesses facing higher costs for labour, energy and intermediate goods, many are now raising their selling prices for goods and services. In recent months, consumer price inflation has been rising rapidly. In the year to September 2022, consumer prices measured by the CPI rose by close to 7 percent. Without the electricity cost support package for households, inflation would have been nearly 10 percent. The rise is broadly based across a range of goods and services, both imported and domestically produced. This chart shows the change in prices across 60 CPI sub-indices, with 44 of them having shown a price rise of more than 2 percent over the past 12 months. And for many of them, the rise in prices is now very high. The rise in prices for 16 groups has exceeded 10 percent. Energy and food prices have shown a particularly sharp rise, but we also see a pronounced rise in prices for some services such as air travel and hospitality, and goods such as books and household articles.

An increase in the policy rate normally leads to a stronger krone. This pushes down imported goods inflation. The krone exchange rate fluctuates, and the relationship between interest rates and the exchange rate is uncertain. Nevertheless, the exchange rate channel is an important channel for the transmission of monetary policy in a small open economy like Norway. The current high level of inflation is, as you know, not unique to Norway. Policy rates are on the rise in many countries. Had we raised the policy rate substantially less than other central banks, this could have led to a weaker krone and higher imported inflation. Chart: Should the central bank stabilise domestic or total inflation? A question that has been raised is whether the central bank should have disregarded imported inflation when setting its policy rate. [5] It could be argued that domestic inflation covaries more closely with the level of economic activity. [6] If this were the case, and the central bank stabilised domestic inflation, it would also stabilise output and employment. This chart shows underlying inflation, or total CPI-ATE inflation, and the rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services. The output gap is an indicator of the activity level. As shown in the chart, the difference in covariance with activity between the two indices is not very large.
Ardian Fullani: A short overview on the latest Albanian banking system achievements Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the EBRD 2005 Annual Meeting and Business Forum, Belgrade, 22 May 2005. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure to participate in this prestigious event of the EBRD Annual Meeting and Business Forum. For this purpose, I would like to thank the organisers of this meeting who provided us such an opportunity to present our achievements and ambitions for the future. Allow me first to tackle an important issue, which within the context of this meeting, I believe, is of paramount importance. I mean by that the regional co-operation, an initiative that has been completely supported by the European Central Bank. We have already taken the first steps in this regard through establishing bilateral relationships in banking supervision with National Bank of Macedonia, Central Bank of Montenegro and Banking and Payment Authority of Kosovo. Meanwhile, we are in the process of negotiating with National Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, National Bank of Serbia etc... I estimate that regional co-operation is an important forerunner of the integration process of the region with the rest of Europe; therefore I will not stop working to encourage a regional co-operation of high standards among the financial systems of Balkan countries. I hope that you share the same opinion with me, because only in this way, our region will be more credible and efficient to have its European dream.

Unemployment Percentage of labour force, seasonally-adjusted data 14  14 Arbetslöshet 16-64 år  12  12 Arbetslöshet 15-74 år  10  10  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0 80  82  84  86  88  90  92  94  96  98  00  02  04  06  08  10  12  Note: Broken line is the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 age group. Data before 1993 is linked by the Riksbank. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  BIS Review 154/2008  13  Figure 11. CPI and CPIF inflation Annual percentage change 5  5 CPI  4  4  CPIF  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1 00  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  Note: Broken lines are the Riksbank’s forecasts. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Figure 12.
Mr. Sheng looks at questions relating to financial regulation Lecture by Mr. Andrew Sheng, a Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, to the Macquarie University MA (Finance) Programme in Hong Kong on 8/5/97. “A state is better governed which has but few laws, and those laws are strictly observed”...René Descartes (1596-1650) Introduction Financial markets today are the biggest markets in the world. The foreign exchange market turns over $ 1.2 trillion daily, roughly one quarter of annual world exports. The regulation of financial markets therefore concerns us all. This paper covers the What, Why, Who and How of financial regulation. Financial markets engage in the exchange of property rights. Financial assets are derivatives of physical or real assets, derivatives being property rights of property rights that are not “lumpy” or asset specific, and transactions costs in them being lower than transactions in real assets. The first thing to remember about financial products is that they are all defined by the law. Therefore, all financial transactions are about transactions in legal products, under procedures regulated by rules or laws. Even financial institutions are, strictly speaking, legal constructs. To paraphrase another French philosopher: Man is born free, but after that he is bound by the law. What is Financial Regulation? The Dictionary of Finance defines regulation as actions that ‘command and control’ the individual decisions of firms, in an effort to prevent private decision-making that would take inadequate account of the ’public interest’.

As trading position can be transformed swiftly through the use of derivatives and hence may not be reliable, regulatory focus has shifted to assess internal risk models, rather than the instruments held at a point in time. In addition to external regulation, the Group of Thirty in its 1993 study of derivatives made recommendations at strengthening risk-management techniques and procedures. Another industry initiative was JP Morgan’s decision to release its own proprietary risk-management model for general use. In addition, changing consumer behaviour resulting from aging population, for example, calls for new and sophisticated products like pension funds and long-term debt instruments. Also, consumers’ expectations are likely to be higher as they now have access to more choices from more diversified markets. Finally, de-regulation has occurred because old regulations have not prevented the massive losses incurred by worldwide bank failures. In many countries, the losses caused by bank failures have been as high as 15% of GDP, with bank losses in Japan and France at an estimated 8% of GDP. In the light of these heavy costs, governments around the world have begun to look seriously at the cost of regulation. The latest initiative include the Japanese Big Bang, which would be complete by 2000. Should the Central Bank also act as the Supervisor? There are several arguments in support of the assumption of the supervisory role by the central bank. The first is efficiency consideration.
But the fact that the Eurosystem does not have an exchange rate target does not imply that we are indifferent to exchange rate developments or that we will neglect them. The exchange rate of the euro is monitored within the second pillar of our monetary strategy as a potentially important indicator for monetary policy. If its development poses a threat to price stability in the euro area, the causes of this development will be assessed and appropriate measures taken. With regard to the use of the euro as an international currency, the Eurosystem has adopted a neutral stance: we will neither hinder nor actively promote the international role of the euro, but leave its development to market forces. We observe that the euro is already second only to the US dollar as the most widely used currency in the world, ahead of the Japanese yen. In general, the international use of a currency is determined by several factors. Private agents may use a currency for international trade and investment, as well as for pricing and denomination purposes. In the official sector, it is used as an  BIS Review 116/1999  6  anchor for exchange rate pegs, for holding foreign exchange reserves and for the conduct of foreign exchange intervention. The successful changeover to Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) played an important role in promoting the role of the euro. During the so-called changeover weekend, the bulk of bonds, shares and other financial instruments were re-denominated in euro.

Some of these risks, singularly or collectively, can lead to potential insolvency and financial instability. In more recent times, the regulators world over have introduced prudential norms on single borrower exposures, group exposures and concentration of credit risks. The underlying principles of such norms indicate some degree of compulsion on the observance of CG principles. To further augment such prudential norms, regulators may even consider introducing mandatory disclosures by banks and financial institutions. Where does good governance fit in this scenario? Obviously, Corporate Governance is now identified and acknowledged as a powerful tool to generate trust and confidence in an institution. In that context, good Corporate Governance is essentially important for banks, because such institutions (a) deal with funds raised from the public; (b) are likely to encounter greater risks including frauds and failure; and (c) if such frauds or failures occur in such institutions, it may pose issues relating to public confidence in the financial system stability itself. All these reasons have led to Banks tending to depend upon risk management practices based on principles of prudence rather than complying with only minimum requirements. It is also as a result of such realization that many stakeholders and regulators are now consciously looking towards good Corporate Governance, as one of the prime instruments in its overall effort to maintain financial system stability. In Sri Lanka, the CBSL has already issued a voluntary code of best practice on Corporate Governance to banks.
There is relatively little research on the macroeconomic significance of OFC money.14 The central question is typically seen as whether institutional investors, such as pension funds and life insurance companies, are holding an unusually large amount of money in their asset portfolios, in which case any ‘excess’ might be expected sooner or later to flow into financial markets, pushing up asset values, which in turn would tend to boost aggregate demand and so add to inflationary pressures. Well, since 2003, institutional investor M4 has accounted for less than a fifth of the near doubling in total OFC money holdings. And the share of money in their asset portfolios has remained in a 3-5% range (Chart 7). Moreover, some contacts have suggested that with pension funds and life companies making greater use of derivatives to manufacture long-duration assets, some cash is now held to manage collateral calls or to generate a LIBOR-based stream of payments. Such money holdings would not be readily available to invest in financial assets. Over the past year, the largest contributions to OFC money growth have, in fact, come from two other groups (Chart 8): “securities dealers and other” (8pp)15; and what the statisticians label “Other Financial Intermediaries” (contributing a whopping 17 pp). I would hazard a guess that a significant portion of the money holdings of securities dealers stems from their so-called ‘matched’ repo books.

BNP Paribas excluded due to lack of H1 interim data. BIS Review 2/2007  13
xvi Lastly, we have maintained our nationwide presence by committing to keeping at least one branch in each département. This local presence is a prerequisite for public reform, faced with the impression that medium-sized towns are being abandoned. And this is in no way incompatible with generating substantial savings: we are preserving our front offices and contacts everywhere, but we have consolidated all the back offices in interdepartmental shared business centres, thereby achieving substantial productivity gains. Obviously, the Banque de France is not France and not everything can be transposed. I am sometimes told that we enjoy independence; this is indeed essential for monetary policy and financial supervision, and I should stress the point this year, which marks the thirtieth anniversary of the law of 1993 granting the Banque de France its independence. However, as regards good management, independence is neither sufficient - I even tend to believe that it should require greater exemplarity everywhere it exists - nor necessary: I provided the example of the Public Accounts Directorate. Our experience, along with many others - including those in other countries - can therefore be a source of hope from which I believe we can identify four levers for change. Taking pride in our missions, and their objectification Everything starts with clarification of our missions: pride means being able to explain what concrete services we provide to our fellow citizens. Fortunately, these missions are determined not by ourselves but by the political powers that be, i.e. Parliament and the government.

However, the missions need to be restated in a way that is intelligible and visible for our fellow citizens - the Banque de France is communicating more than ever about what it does - and results need to be measured - which, as I have said, is more difficult in the public sector. Page 17 of 19 At the Banque de France, we have resumed and extended the practice of strategic planning: after "Ambition 2020", we prepared "Building 2024 Together". We have set ourselves 10 key results targets and set quantified targets for each of the 30 priority actions. Accountability for resources Once these objectives have been defined, it is time for the crucial phase of effective implementation. To this end, the central tool for effective governance is contractualisation with the management team; demanding standards are balanced by delegation of responsibilities. At the Banque de France, each Director General is in charge of his or her own staffing, overheads and investment budgets, both on an overall and a multi-year basis over the plan horizon. This allocation- and contract-based approach is largely transposable to central government ministries and large state administrations. The 2004 Camdessus Report xvii already recommended going in this direction. In 2008, the Attali Commission - of which I was a member – specifically adopted as one of the 20 major proposals contained in its report xviii the promotion of "agencies".
All this reduces domestic saving significantly in 2021 with respect to our June forecast (Table 2). On the external front, the global growth outlook continues to suggest that, after a major recession this year, expansion rates above the past 10-year averages will resume in 2021 and 2022. This outlook is slightly more favorable than predicted a few months ago, especially due to better performance expected for the Eurozone and China. This is because the greater stimulus ensured by the authorities, in addition to the deconfinements in the European bloc and the improved performance of China in the second quarter. This contrasts with Latin America, 5  where the sanitary situation remains particularly complex, despite prolonged and strict restrictions in several countries. The region is one of the hardest hits in terms of lost activity and employment, with a projected contraction of more than 9% this year. Accordingly, Chile’s trading partners are expected to see a GDP contraction of 3.5% in 2020 and an expansion of 4.7% in 2021. By 2022, growth of 4.5% is still expected. External financial conditions will remain favorable, consistent with a still expansionary overall monetary policy, in line with the announcements of the various authorities, and the recovery of the world economy. The terms of trade will be better than in previous years. This assumes that in the period 2020-2022 copper and oil prices will average $ per pound and $ per barrel (BrentWTI average), respectively.

In essence, the adopted solution saved the domestic operations of the banking system by creating new banks, which was done by carving a big part of the domestic assets and liabilities out of the old, failing banks. The new banking system amounted to 1.7 times GDP. The rest – and much bigger part – went into a resolution process, where it largely remains, pending a solution that would make it possible for Iceland to lift its comprehensive controls on capital outflows, but that is another story. In order to reverse the ongoing run on domestic deposits, a declaration was made that all deposits in Iceland were safe and all deposits in Icelandic-headquartered banks were given priority over other unsecured claims. This distinction made between domestic deposits and foreign currency deposits in the banks’ foreign branches added fuel to the fire of the socalled Icesave dispute about the settlement of deposit guarantees in the Dutch and British branches of one of the banks. But guaranteeing those deposits would never have been credible and might have bankrupted the Government had it been attempted. The deposits in question were in foreign currencies and amounted to 11½ billion euros – far in excess of Iceland’s FX reserves, which amounted to 2½ billion euros. And the sovereign was completely closed off from foreign capital markets at that point.
This would make it possible to dismantle a systemically relevant institution in such a way that only those parts of the institution that are vital to the economy need to be saved. Only a limited bailout is then necessary, and this can then be rendered compatible with the functioning of a free market economy, if the capital necessary for maintaining the vital functions does not come from the taxpayer. Cocos: better incentives for bondholders A possible way to keep vital parts of banks functioning during crisis situations without involving the taxpayer is to have recourse to contingent convertible bonds or Cocos. These are bonds that are converted into equity if certain thresholds are reached. One such threshold may be a capital level corresponding to a de facto bankruptcy. With these “low-trigger” Cocos, the necessary capital for supporting the vital functions of the bank is forthcoming precisely when it is most needed, in other words, when the institution would not otherwise be viable as a going concern. The conceptual attractiveness of Cocos is that, in addition to recapitalising banks when the standard form of recapitalisation is unavailable,  11  Banks’ liquidity issues are not dealt with explicitly here. Clearly, weak bank liquidity profiles were at the core of the recent crisis. Liquidity measures represent a critical part of the Basel III regulatory framework. They are also part of the TBTF proposal. Another relevant issue relates to the maturity mismatch between a bank’s assets and liabilities. This is discussed in Hellwig (2008), among others.

SPEECH  The coronavirus crisis and SMEs Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the “Jahresimpuls Mittelstand 2021” of Bundesverband Mittelständische Wirtschaft Frankfurt am Main, 1 March 2021  It is a great pleasure to have the opportunity to speak to you today. At the ECB we care deeply about connecting with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), since they are the foundation of the European economy. SMEs make up 99.8% of all non-financial companies in the EU, provide 66.6% of jobs and generate 56.4% of added value. [1] It is decisions by companies like yours to invest, hire and innovate that put the European economy on a path to growth. But in Germany, being part of the Mittelstand has a special quality that is about much more than the firm’s size. It is about the philosophy of how to do business and the spirit of management. As Ludwig Erhard said, what defines the Mittelstand is “eine Gesinnung und eine Haltung”[2], how one acts and behaves in society. This way of doing business has brought tremendous economic success. Of the 2,700 “hidden champions” worldwide – SMEs that are leaders in niche markets – almost half are part of the German Mittelstand. [3]  1/8  And it has also helped to pull Germany through times of great crisis. The Mittelstand was central to the country’s Wirtschaftswunder after the Second World War. It was critical to Germany’s swift bounceback from the global financial crisis in 2008.