samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
We have witnessed a global trend of increasing food prices, which is yet to be normalized. Many food products surged in price during the exit from the pandemic. The persisting drought also has an adverse impact on production conditions and prices in this area. On the other hand, weight of food items in the global consumption basket and domestic food inflation may differ between countries. Hence, this increase in food prices can affect inflation at different rates in different countries. A cross-country comparison reveals that Turkey is among the countries in which the prices are the most adversely affected. In the table, we see that food inflation in August was considerably higher than the average of the last three years. Finally, I would like to talk about our foreign exchange reserves while evaluating our economy. The improvement in reserves is in line with our projections. Our reserves, which were USD 85-90 billion, increased by approximately USD 30 billion and exceeded USD 120 billion. Swap agreements, rediscount credits, gold ore purchases and arrangements in required reserves were the main factors contributing to this increase. Before concluding my speech, I would like to talk about the Central Bank’s views on the future of the normalization process. Although significant progress has been made in the struggle with the pandemic, virus variants have caused case numbers to rise again, which adds to uncertainty over the course of the pandemic. As you can see on the slide, many countries are now facing a new wave of infection.

To ensure that the normalization process continues properly, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will take the necessary policy steps, as it has done so far. Concluding my speech, I would like to thank you all for your participation.
The foreign currency reserve needs to be readily available in the event of a crisis Sweden has a large and expanding banking sector with major commitments and funding in foreign currency. In the event of a financial crisis, the Riksbank has a unique role as crisis manager due to its ability to provide liquidity support to the banks. In order to provide liquidity support in foreign currency, the Riksbank needs to maintain a foreign currency reserve. This should be so large that it covers the needs that could be expected to arise in the short term in a financial crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) makes the assessment that the current level of the foreign currency reserve is sufficient for the Riksbank to cover the requirements of a financial crisis. 22 My own assessment is that the foreign currency reserve needs to remain at today's level or become larger. However, the Government proposes that the foreign currency reserve should be roughly halved. 23 This is a high risk proposition. It could both take time and be expensive not to have the money at hand at the height of a crisis but to be forced to ask the Swedish National Debt Office to borrow it. If the foreign currency reserve is large enough, it could also act preventively by creating confidence in the Riksbank’s ability to act in a crisis.

Implementing the reforms needed to create a better balance on the housing market and to build more housing will, however, take some time. Measures to restrain the accumulation of debt by households and to strengthen the banking system will therefore be necessary during this period. Over the long term, mortgage borrowers will benefit from lower indebtedness The measures that need to be applied to restrict households’ opportunities to borrow and to strengthen the banks’ resilience may have short-term effects on demand and inflation, which monetary policy needs to consider. But the measures may also impact different groups in society in different ways. In practice, this could be one reason for why it has been difficult to apply appropriate measures. There are so many groups to consider: mortgage borrowers and other households, high income earners and low income earners, households in rural areas and households in metropolitan areas, and so on. But in several cases, the variations are also large between different households within these different groups, which makes it difficult to determine who will win and who will lose from different measures. It may therefore be difficult to conduct a policy that clearly mitigates the consequences for those households hit hardest by the measures. Another difficulty concerns distribution effects in the short and long terms. These can often differ. In the short term, it is likely that many indebted households – mortgage borrowers – may be forced to cut back on their consumption while they reduce their debts.
Compared to the levels prevailing at the close of the June Report, the prices of oil and copper have fallen between 15% and 20%. On the other hand, the price of lithium has continued to rise, driven by the strong demand linked to the production of electric vehicles, while the supply has limited capacity to respond to the challenge. Food prices have also fallen, although in this case supply-side factors, including the agreement between Russia and Ukraine to resume grain exports and the improved production prospects in some relevant countries, have had a greater impact. Global supply chains have shown some normalization, with freight costs declining. Even though bottlenecks have been gradually resolved, the risk of new quarantines persists given China's zero-Covid policy. In this context, external cost pressures are still substantial (figure 9). Global financial markets have reacted to this scenario by exhibiting high volatility in recent months. Doubts about the trajectory of the Fed's monetary policy and its potential effects have been among the main sources of financial fluctuations. Thus, market sensitivity to data or statements by authorities has increased, with episodes of high volatility and fluctuating risk aversion. Compared to the close of the last Report, interest rate hikes, stock market declines, and a global strengthening of the dollar to twenty-year records have been observed. These movements are consistent with the Fed's hardened messages regarding the monetary policy efforts needed to reduce high inflation.

From the economic point of view, our past experience teaches us that all these processes entail a high degree of uncertainty which, if not mitigated, may adversely affect inflation, growth, and the stability of financial markets. 1  For our part, we remain ready and available to continue collaborating in whatever the authorities may request of us, as we did in the process that has just ended, always within the limits imposed on us by the legal system and the autonomous and technical nature of our institution. THE MONETARY POLICY REPORT Let me now turn to the contents and projections of our September Monetary Policy Report. I must start by stressing that inflation is on a rising path. The latest available data, for the month of July, shows that its annual variation exceeded 13%. In recent months, increases in food prices —volatile and non-volatile— continued to lead, accounting for almost one third of annual inflation in July. Core inflation —measured by the non-volatile CPI— rose to 10% year-on-year, with a higher contribution from services and non-volatile foods (figure 1). The rise in total inflation again exceeded our expectations. The same as in June, the surprise was concentrated in volatile prices and non-volatile foods. The CPI is rising in a context of increasing inflation expectations. Different sources of information have it that short-term inflation expectations have risen significantly.
The survey revealed that 90% of the respondents recognize the need for digital innovation in the financial sector and 72% are already in the process of implementing some form of  2/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  digital transformation. There is an agreement among respondents that regulation can sometimes be a barrier for a swifter innovation. To eliminate regulatory barriers, a new Law on Payment Systems has been prepared and is currently undergoing a parliamentary procedure. We have already drafted the First National FinTech Strategy, which will soon be shared with other stakeholders. Tomorrow, under our initiative, all financial regulators will sign a Memorandum for setting up a FinTech Committee with a view of promoting digitalization in the financial sector. To recap, there are no doubts that faster and inclusive income convergence calls for strengthened efforts to lift the growth potential, and perhaps even more importantly to lift the quality of growth. In this context, we would like to express our gratitude to EBRD for supporting us for almost three decades with more than EUR 2 billion total investment to date aimed at supporting competitiveness, trade integration and green transition. Despite the current headwinds which put economic growth at risk and require immediate policy focus, we should not lose sight of a longer term structural agenda, including digitalization. As Andy Rooney said, "Everyone wants to live on top of the mountain, but all the happiness and growth occurs while you're climbing it." So, let us keep climbing. Thank you.

Ravi Menon: Singapore as convenor, catalyst and contributor for climate action Speech by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the launch of the COP-27 Singapore Pavilion, Sharm El-Sheikh, 6 November 2022. *** Ladies and gentlemen, good evening. Welcome to the launch of the Singapore Pavilion at COP27. As we gather in beautiful Sharm El-Sheikh, let us remind ourselves of the task before us: to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050 in an orderly and inclusive way. Singapore is committed to the net-zero by 2050 target and has laid out our plans and strategies to get there. This Pavilion is not just about Singapore's plans to get to net-zero. After all, Singapore's contribution to global emissions is just 0.1%. But as a global city, technology hub, and financial centre, we can play a larger role in the fight against climate change. Singapore wants to be a convenor, a catalyst, and a contributor of solutions for global climate action. This is the broader purpose of this Pavilion. As a convenor, we will bring together partners in industry, finance, academia, civil society and the government, to spark new ideas and forge new collaborations for effective climate action. As a catalyst, we will work with partners to step up the pace of transition in this critical decade, which will substantially determine whether the world gets to netzero by 2050.
In a democratic society, evaluating the design and effects of public policies fulfils different political and technical functions. First, it fosters transparency regarding political actors’ actions and their outcomes. This provides for accountability and democratic control by Parliament and citizens. Second, it enables the strengthening of the decision-making process via valuable information to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of public policies. Therefore, when “evidence-based policies” are promoted, it is both a technical argument in favour of effectiveness and a political statement in favour of citizens’ and their representatives’ democratic control of the power. Of course, some political matters cannot solely be based on quantitative evidence or purely technical criteria. Clear limits exist, imposed by the issues’ complex nature, the availability of information and the capacity of social sciences to analyse and make reliable and unambiguous projections within the timeframes in which society requires suitable answers for the challenges it faces. And one of economists’ core tasks should indeed be to highlight those limits, so that the findings of the assessments and analyses are appropriately interpreted with the due caveats. But to acknowledge and highlight these limits (especially on the ability to assess ex ante, i.e. to foresee in real time the different outcomes that may ensue from different courses of action in the many key areas when faced with complex problems) should not check our ambition for these assessments to influence the decision-making process. While not definitive, their conclusions act as an objective reference which is relevant to achieving the intended aims of public policies.

“Life beyond Solvency II: A view from the top of the regulator” Speech given by Charlotte Gerken, Executive Director of Insurance Supervision  Remarks delivered at the Association of British Insurers (ABI) Prudential Regulation webinar keynote address 19 May 2020  I would like to thank Megan Bell, Fred Schneider, Alan Sheppard, Manuel Sales, Lewis Webber, Santosh Pandit, Stefan Claus, Paola Vega and Patrick Cleary for their help in preparing these remarks. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  Good afternoon. Many thanks to the ABI for inviting me to speak at this prudential regulation webinar. When I was asked to give a view from the top of the regulator, I can’t say I’d been expecting to give that view from south west London. Thinking about the theme of today’s webinar, ‘Life beyond Solvency II’, the scope of my talk is two-fold: Firstly to reflect on what we have learned about Solvency II during a first test of the regime, to inform how our regulatory framework may develop following the end of the EU withdrawal implementation period. And secondly beyond the Solvency II regulatory regime, what some of our key supervisory priorities are. As a result of the challenges presented by Covid-19, we – like you – had to shift resource from our longer term business priorities – including supervision and policy reform – to short-term crisis management.
Scenario analysis can be an important and useful tool in the hands of financial institutions and their supervisors to guide such necessary 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  effort. Thanks a lot for your attention. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

  In 2017 we published our first effort to measure research and development as a productive asset in the National Accounts.   In addition, we recently began to explore new administrative data such as electronic invoices from the Tax Office, which will complement the country’s national and regional statistics. The results of these projects will be included in the release of the 2018 benchmark compilation, scheduled for 2021.   This year, we published a second effort to evaluate Chile’s value added in international trade, which identified the presence of heterogeneity among the various industries. This will allow improving the inputoutput estimates and the description of the productive interrelations of the Chilean economy. During this Conference we will consider the experiences of Germany and Portugal in having a microdata repository that gives access to third parties, for analysis and research, with due protection of confidential information. In a similar fashion, we are developing an institutional Data Warehouse, strengthening the technological architecture and infrastructure that will allow us to organize, integrate and analyze a large amount of information, enhancing the construction of indicators and applied research in an efficient and timely manner. The Third Conference on Statistics Spaces for reflection and dialogue such as the one that this day-and-a-half provides, are essential to deepen and improve our understanding of the phenomena described. Throughout the sessions, we hope learn about the progress made by international organizations, other central banks, statistical offices and researchers in these areas.
Authority providing capital support  % of GDP at the time  Bank of England  <0.1  Bank of England  <0.1  Bank of England  <0.1  Treasury  ~4  Source: Bank of England  BIS Review 139/2009  13  Chart 1: UK banking sector assets as % of GDP 600  500  Percentage (%)  400  300  200  100  2006  2000  1994  1988  1982  1976  1970  1964  1958  1952  1946  1940  1934  1928  1922  1916  1910  1904  1898  1892  1886  1880  0  Year  Source: Sheppard, D. K (1971) and Bank of England. Note: The definition of UK banking sector assets used in the series is broader after 1966, but using a narrower definition throughout gives the same growth profile. Chart 2: Capital ratios for UK and US banks  30  United States  25  Percentage (%)  20  15  United Kingdom  10  5  2000  1990  1980  1970  1960  1950  1940  1930  1920  1910  1900  1890  1880  0  Year  Source: US: Berger, A, Herring, R and Szegö, G (1995). UK: Sheppard, D.K (1971), BBA, published accounts and Bank of England calculations.

This is confirmed by the fact that most of the rating agencies as well as the IMF's recent mission to Estonia have expressed positive assessments of Estonia's economic outlooks. To support economic growth, it is necessary to reinforce the principles of open economy and market flexibility and to ensure the stability of the national economy. In order to meet these goals, the best state support is the resumption of investment in the private sector and using the new possibilities that accompany every crisis. Thank you for your attention! BIS Review 91/2009  3
With the economy undershooting both our employment and inflation goals, monetary policy does not presently face a conflict in goals; actions that support employment growth also help move inflation up toward our target. Yet, as I look to the future and assess risks, I foresee a time when a policy dilemma might emerge: Namely, we could find ourselves in a situation in which the progress or risks to one of our goals dictate a tightening of policy while the achievement of the other goal calls for maintaining strong accommodation. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  So what happens when a conflict emerges? In such cases, the FOMC has said that it will follow a “balanced approach” to achieving its policy goals. I will elaborate at length on this later, but let me summarize how I think we should operationalize this approach today. We should keep our focus on our policy goals and should be highly attuned to both the likelihood and the costs of missing those goals. To me, the risks imposed on an economy forced to operate at the zero lower bound on policy rates are paramount. Accordingly, before the Fed raises rates we should have a great deal of confidence that we won’t be forced to backtrack on our moves and face another painful period at the ZLB.

Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell: Beyond the turmoil – rules, supervision and infrastructures Speech by Ms Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the opening panel at the SPIN 2009 Conference, Rome, 15 June 2009. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure for me to participate in the opening discussion at this conference. The organisers, in choosing the title of the panel, have given us the challenging task to look beyond the current turmoil surrounding rules, supervision and infrastructures. This is certainly not easy as we cannot yet speak of an end to the difficult period facing both the financial and real sectors of the economy. However, looking beyond the turmoil and start implementing the lessons we have learned is exactly what is needed at this point in time. Against the background of the crisis up until now, we have to draw the right conclusions and begin designing the future of the financial architecture, including new rules and improved supervision and oversight. This needs to be done now before the window of opportunity – which will not remain open forever – closes. However, before looking beyond the turmoil let me take the opportunity first to examine the performance of market infrastructures in the current crisis. Developments in the financial markets and the fate of specific institutions have been at the heart of the public debate.
In addition to buoyant growth in other countries, terms-of-trade gains and higher demand in the petroleum industry are important driving forces behind the upturn. Capacity utilisation in the economy has picked up and is now probably higher than its normal level. High oil prices have a different impact in Norway than in oil-importing countries. A rise in oil prices improves our terms of trade. Moreover, as a result of persistently high oil prices and expectations that oil prices will remain high, investment in the petroleum sector may reach record levels this year. The investment intentions survey for the petroleum sector points to very high growth. In our projections, we have assumed that fiscal policy will have a cyclically neutral impact on the economy next year. For 2007, our projections are based on the assumption that fiscal policy will be consistent with the fiscal rule, while fiscal policy for 2008 will provide some stimulus to total demand and output, although somewhat less than a mechanical application of the fiscal rule would imply. High oil prices will particularly be reflected in a sharp rise in the Petroleum Fund’s total capital. After a period of very low consumer price inflation, there are prospects that inflation will again rise at a faster pace. Nevertheless, there are considerable differences in the rise in prices across goods and  4  BIS Review 79/2005  services. On the one hand, Norway is still benefiting from the growing liberalisation of world trade.

The Rt Hon Sir Edward George: The state of the UK economy and the Bank of England’s conduct of monetary policy Speech by The Rt Hon Sir Edward George, Governor of the Bank of England, at the Welsh Development Agency/Bank of England Dinner, Brangwyn Hall, Swansea, on 16 October 2001. *  *  *  Thank you, David for that kind introduction. And thank you, too, for agreeing to co-host this dinner in the Brangwyn Hall this evening. It gives me great pleasure to add my welcome - on behalf of the Court of the Bank of England - to all of our guests. We are grateful to you for joining us. I should like to say a few words this evening about the state of the economy, and in particular to account to you - as stakeholders - for the Bank's conduct of monetary policy. If you look back, since the recession of the early 1990s the UK has enjoyed 9 years of steady progress. Inflation over that period, on the Government's target measure, has averaged just 2.6% - and has been more stable than at any time in our history. Now some people think that's all we care about at the Bank of England - and we certainly do care about it - it is after all what we are paid for. But it is certainly not all we care about.