samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is in the process of winding down its massive purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. At our last meeting, in recognition that the economy is improving and acknowledging that we have generated massive amounts of excess reserves among depository institutions operating in the U.S., we voted to reduce our purchases to a combined $ billion per month, on the path to eliminating them at the earliest practicable date. Speaking only for myself as a voting member, barring some destabilizing development in the real economy that comes out of left field, I will continue to vote for the pace of reduction we have undertaken, reducing by $ billion per meeting our purchases and eliminating them entirely at the October meeting with a final reduction of $ billion. I was not for this program, popularly known as QE3, to begin with. I doubted its efficacy and was convinced that the financial system already had sufficient liquidity to finance recovery without providing tinder for future inflation. But I lost that argument in the fall of 2012, and I am just happy that we will be rid of the program soon enough. I am often asked why I do not support a more rapid deceleration of our purchases, given my agnosticism about their effectiveness and my concern that they might well be leading to froth in certain segments of the financial markets.

I want to thank you all for your support, trust and commitment, which has enabled us to reach this first step towards an integrated, more efficient, and harmonised post-trade market in Europe. In particular, I would like to take this opportunity to thank the national communities, namely the national central banks, the securities depositories and their clients, for their involvement and cooperation. Moreover, I would like to thank the 4CB (composed of Banque de France, Deutsche Bundesbank, Banca d’Italia and Banco de España) for developing and now also running the T2S platform. Let me also acknowledge the hard work and dedication of the people at the ECB who coordinated the implementation of the project. In particular, I thank Jean-Michel Godeffroy, who steered the T2S ship through sometimes stormy waters for many years, and Marc Bayle, who brought the ship to a safe harbour on 22 June 2015. And a special thanks to Ms Tumpel-Gugerell, who was the ECB board member in charge during the project’s inception. A popular saying is that “Two heads are better than one”. From the very beginning T2S has managed to unite the efforts of both the private and the public sector. T2S was not initiated by the market, but owing to its post-trade harmonisation agenda it has evolved into a marketdriven initiative which is supported by the public sector. In many ways it has been a unique project. First of all, no one was forced to join the T2S Community.
In particular we need much stronger cross border crisis planning – a subject on which I have been chairing a group under the FSF. This has been bedevilled, in practice, by the sheer lack of information and time to consult widely in the heat of a crisis. That we can do something about. I hope we will agree two things to put to the G20 summit – a statement of principles on how countries should cooperate in planning for and handling crises in cross border institutions and a programme to put in place better arrangements for information sharing and cross border dialogue on the largest banks in the world. Building on the core international colleges of supervisors we would aim in peacetime to establish a shared information base among the relevant authorities and jointly to think through the implications of failure for different countries. That would at least give us the basis for considering a coordinated solution in wartime. In time we should also try to establish greater harmony on national resolution regimes which is on the Basel Committee’s agenda. Lesson 4: Develop a new generation of macroeconomic models So far I have concentrated on lessons for financial policy but this recession has also set some challenges for the economics profession and cast doubts on the macroeconomic modelling. In truth, much of my critique of the models that financial institutions use to calibrate risk could equally be levelled at the workhorse DSGE models that most economists and central bankers use to describe and forecast macroeconomic developments.

Caleb M Fundanga: Strengthening the Zambian financial services industry through education Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the Zambia Institute of Banking and Financial Services 8th Graduation Ceremony, Lusaka, 21 February 2009. *  *  *  • The President, Zambia Institute of Banking and Financial Services, Mr. David Chewe; • Distinguished Council members; • The Chairman, Bankers Association of Zambia, Mr Saviour Chibiya; • Chief executives of Banks and Financial institutions present; • Representatives from other Learning institutions; • Distinguished Parents; • Graduates; • Distinguished Invited Guests; • Ladies and gentlemen It is an honour and privilege for me to officiate at this 8th Graduation Ceremony of the Zambia Institute of Banking and financial services. There is nothing more pleasing than witnessing young men and women climbing the ladder of success in life. Mr President, as we speak, our economy is facing numerous challenges emanating from the global financial turmoil. As you are no doubt aware, the crisis has already resulted in a reduction in commodity prices including that of copper our main foreign exchange earner. The Zambian foreign exchange market has also been adversely affected as is reflected in the volatility and weakening of the Kwacha exchange rate in the recent past. The result of all this is lower Government revenues and more expensive imports which would in turn culminate in higher inflation.
And once we cut through the legend, what is its significance for economic governance today? The revisionist interpretation of Magna Carta as a timeless statement of natural rights and liberties became imprinted onto the minds of the English-speaking world only in the 17th century. In large part, this was due to the work of Edward Coke. As well as being an enormously influential jurist, Coke was also the author of popular English legal textbooks that exported his views around the world. Coke resurrected the long-forgotten Magna Carta from 400 years of obscurity by appealing to its spirit in order to resist the absolutist tendencies of the Stuart Kings James I and his son Charles I – themselves inspired by the continental European model of monarchic divine-right. The Charter, Coke argued, could trace its lineage from an ancient constitution that harked back not just to the time of pre-Norman King Edward the Confessor, but to King Arthur himself (! ): an ancient constitution that was now being imperilled – and with it the Englishman’s rightful way of life – by the tyrannical behaviour of the Stuarts. 16  John had restored himself to favour from excommunication and placed himself under the protection of Innocent by pronouncing himself a papal vassal, and England a papal fief, in 1213 and subsequently by “taking the cross” in March 1215 – i.e., declaring himself a crusader.

Initial examples are the work on the introduction of a leverage ratio and on the reform of liquidity regulations, which FINMA and the SNB have been driving forward together. This development does not essentially call into question the division of responsibilities between the supervisory authority and the central bank. However, because of the importance of the big banks for our financial system and our economy, greater weight must be given to the macroprudential perspective, both in the oversight of the financial system and in its regulation. 4  BIS Review 77/2009
Other factors that continue to affect banking sector profitability are the lower volume of banking activity – in a setting in which the year-on-year rate of change in credit to the resident private sector remains in negative territory – and the presence of still significant levels of non-productive assets on banks’ balance sheets. These assets weigh on profitability, despite the reductions achieved in the volume of non-performing loans that I spoke of earlier. Lastly, I must also mention the increase in legal costs, which has recently become a further factor in the decline in profitability. 4/8  By contrast, the decrease in the volume of non-performing loans from the highs of 2013, which has been reflected in a continued decline in banks’ provisioning needs, is one of the main factors making a positive contribution to Spanish credit institutions’ income statements, offsetting to a certain extent the decline in margins. 2.2 Resolution requirements: MREL The second challenge I wish to highlight is the need for banks to comply with the new resolution requirements that were introduced post-crisis, aiming to secure the stability of the financial system, minimise the cost for the taxpayer of banking crises and ensure that banks’ critical functions are maintained. As you are aware, banks will have to comply with the minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL). For that purpose they will have to have, on their balance sheets, instruments that provide sufficient loss-absorbing capacity and that will allow them, where appropriate, to recapitalise.

The City of London thrives on broad, liquid markets regardless of currency, and provided we are prepared -- as we will be from 1 January, 1999 - to quote, trade and settle in euro, as we are now in dollars or yen or DM, then I am convinced that the broader markets in euro instruments will represent an opportunity rather than a threat to the City. The fact is that overseas-controlled financial institutions are continuing actively to build their presence in the City, notwithstanding expectations that the UK will not be among the initial euro-member countries -- and this suggests very strongly that they take the same view about the City’s future. I am quite confident that here in Hong Kong you will continue to be able to conduct your European financial business in euro in London, just as you do now in DM and French francs. So now then, Mr Chairman, should I answer the question in my title? One euro-currency at some point, certainly most probably from 1 January, 1999. Fifteen countries? I doubt it from that date, but eventually who knows? BIS Review 89/1997
By the end of 2014, the combined fund management business here reached a record high of $ trillion, an increase of more than 10% over 2013. Today, there are more than 1,150 licensed asset management companies operating in Hong Kong; and, more than 60 out of the top 100 global money managers have operations here. I think these are quite impressive statistics and reflect well on our status as an international financial centre. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  5. Thirdly, the promotion of private equity funds. The HKMA proposed, and then worked with the Government, to extend the exemption on profits tax to offshore private equity funds. The legislation, which was passed last year, enables the operating structure of private equity funds to be streamlined, and also broadens private equity managers’ ability to conduct asset management activities in Hong Kong. This is attracting more private equity firms to set up or expand their business here. 6. Fourthly, the promotion of Islamic finance. Legislation was enacted in 2013 to provide a level playing field in terms of tax for sukuk vis-à-vis conventional bonds. Two sukuk were successfully launched by the Government in 2014 and 2015 using two different structures of ijarah and wakalah. We hope their success will have the effect of attracting more entities to issue sukuk in Hong Kong. Up till now, 10 global sukuk (including the two government ones I mentioned) have been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. 7.

•  The People’s Bank of China announced in February a widening of the access to the China Interbank Bond Market to a broad range of foreign financial institutions without any quota restrictions. •  And, earlier this month, the Bank announced that it would extend nationwide the pilot measure for cross-border financing by Mainland corporates and financial institutions, with the result that case-by-case pre-approval is no longer required. 12. These initiatives demonstrate the central government’s commitment to liberalising the Mainland’s capital accounts. They also present CFOs and treasurers with new opportunities to meet their business and investment needs. And, there will be more to come. Premier Li Keqiang has said the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect will be launched later this year. 13. Secondly, the “China connection” is growing rapidly. Let me briefly explain what I mean by this: in 2014, China’s ODI amounted to $ billion, 10 times the amount in 2005. This number will be even bigger in the years to come as Chinese corporates go global, and as the implementation of the “Belt and Road” strategy helps more Chinese corporates to invest in these countries. At the same time, multinational corporates are paying more and more business attention to China. In 2015, FDI into China reached $ billion, compared to $ billion in 2005. The point here is that with more business opportunities, either because Chinese corporates are “going out” or multinational corporates are expanding into China, comes the need for more sophisticated treasury management. 14.
In short, I must stress that it is, in this respect, essential to define, in accordance with social preferences, the replacement rates that the pensions system should seek to ensure, so as to subsequently adjust the level of revenue accordingly and thus ensure the BANCO DE ESPAÑA  13	 TESTIMONY BY THE GOVERNOR OF THE BANCO DE ESPAÑA BEFORE PARLIAMENT IN RELATION TO THE DRAFT STATE AND SOCIAL SECURITY BUDGET FOR 2019  HIGH PUBLIC DEBT  CHART 12 PUBLIC DEBT AND GDP GROWTH (a)  NET IIP. SECTORAL BREAKDOWN % of GDP  6  0  5 Real GDP growth  20  -20 -40 -60 -80  4 3 2 1  -100 08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  BANCO DE ESPAÑA  GENERAL GOVERNMENT  PRIVATE SECTOR  TOTAL  17  0  18 Q3  0  25  50  75  100  125  Debt-to-GDP ratio  SOURCES: Eurostat, OECD and Banco de España. a Regression with average values for the EU and OECD countries in the 1995-2015 period.

BANCO DE ESPAÑA  10	 TESTIMONY BY THE GOVERNOR OF THE BANCO DE ESPAÑA BEFORE PARLIAMENT IN RELATION TO THE DRAFT STATE AND SOCIAL SECURITY BUDGET FOR 2019  The third source of risk for projected revenues that I wish to highlight relates to the fact that the estimation of the revenue impact of the new taxes is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, given the absence of any data on how they have functioned in the past. Finally, caution should be exercised in relation to the potential delay in the entry into force of the measures accompanying the Draft Budget, which adds a further risk for expected revenues in 2019. 2.3  The government deficit target and the fiscal policy stance in 2019  Having discussed the spending policies and revenues of the Draft Budget separately I will now consider them together, in order to assess the uncertainty surrounding achievement of the deficit target of 1.3%. For this purpose, economists at the Banco de España have conducted a preliminary updating of the December projections, which I have already considered in detail. In particular, the impact on these projections of the revenue and spending measures that have been included in the Draft Budget since then is estimated, resulting in a general government deficit of around 2% of GDP in 2019, as compared with the Banco de España’s December projection of 2.4%. Moreover, the economic growth forecast would be revised down slightly, mainly as a result of incorporation of the impact of the tax measures.
Since in our survey we have utilized a panel design, we will have the ability to make progress in understanding how expectations are formed and revised over time. Initial analysis suggests that the differences in individual forecasts are persistent and probably related to different forecast models and reference information and not just different experiences. We have also found that a respondent expressing higher-than-average uncertainty in the previous survey is more likely to change their point forecast in the current survey. A better understanding of the factors affecting individual inflation expectations will also help evaluate and predict the impact and effectiveness of central bank policy decisions and communication strategy. Specifically, it will improve the central bank’s capacity to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of various communication tools and strategies designed to keep inflation expectations well anchored. The ability to do so is especially important at times such as the current one, in which central banks have been expanding their toolkits and conducting traditional as well as non-traditional monetary policy. The third and final broad question that would benefit from additional research is whether and how people act on their expectations. The theoretical link between inflation expectations and realized inflation and consumer decisions occurs through several channels. In addition to affecting future wages and prices through influencing the outcomes of nominal wage contract negotiations and through price-setting behavior of firms, there is the crucial link of real interest rates (nominal rates less expected inflation) with intertemporal consumption and investment decisions.

Commodity price changes with relatively more of a permanent nature may distort the general pricing behavior and initiate a wage-price cycle. This may entail prolonged upward movement in inflation in general and, accordingly, the high costs associated with this. Therefore, to be able to contain the potential second-round effects due rises in commodity prices, it is important for central bankers to pay close attention to core inflation indicators and inflation expectations, and shape their communication policy in this direction. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  We, as the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), are also in the position to carry out the abovementioned analyses. As a matter of fact, in our Inflation reports as well as the Summary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings, we share with the public, our assessment of the nature of commodity price changes. In the Inflation Report published in January 2012, we made the following assessment on oil prices: “Another risk factor in the forthcoming period is the uncertainty regarding oil prices. Although the weak course of the global economy dampens commodity prices, recent manifesting problems regarding oil supply pose upside risk to energy prices.
An initial tranche of assets is due to be transferred to StabFund before the end of this year. As regards the financing of StabFund, the SNB will contribute 90% of the funding in the form a loan; UBS, 10% in the form of equity capital. The SNB is currently securing the initial financing for the operation via its swap agreement with the Federal Reserve, but also on the foreign exchange market. It has also initiated steps to later be able to obtain funding on the market, independent of agreements with other central banks. The transfer of assets to the StabFund will be based on prices as at 30 September 2008, with the UBS book value being compared to the value determined by SNB on the basis of the independent expert opinions. The lower value will apply. In October and November, following the intensification of the financial market crisis and the global economic downturn, the prices for these assets were pushed down further. The extent of any potential loss in this initial phase of StabFund’s existence will only become apparent at the end of 2008 or at the end of March 2009, once the asset transfer has been completed and another comprehensive valuation has been carried out. It is important to note that StabFund is primarily pursuing a buy-and-hold-to-maturity strategy with the portfolio at present. Short-term price movements have no bearing on the strategy’s success. A recovery of the affected markets in the long term is by far the more decisive factor here.

The only data relevant for the assessment of the situation in the money market are those on sight deposits and interest rates. We will therefore continue to publish these on a weekly basis. From now on, data on individual balance sheet items and monetary policy operations will only be published in the SNB’s Monthly Statistical Bulletin. Thus, the SNB essentially continues to report on its monetary policy operations in a transparent manner, the only difference being that certain data will be published less frequently. Our Guidelines on monetary policy instruments have been revised accordingly. These will enter into effect on 1 January 2009. BIS Review 157/2008  3  Transaction with UBS On 16 October, the SNB announced that it had concluded an agreement with UBS on the long-term financing and orderly liquidation of troubled assets in the amount of no more than USD 60 billion. To facilitate this transaction, a special purpose vehicle was set up at the end of November called SNB StabFund Limited Partnership for Collective Investments, which is domiciled in Berne. The company is structured as a two-party limited partnership. It comprises a general partner, which bears unlimited liability, and a limited partner, bearing limited liability. Both will be wholly owned by the SNB. The SNB and UBS formed a joint project management team, which is supported when necessary by external specialists. In the meantime, the SNB chose Northern Trust to act as custodian of the securities. We also commissioned specialised agencies to carry out an independent valuation of the portfolio.