samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I would like to describe in more detail our communication strategy for monetary policy. The information provided in our Monetary Policy Report is only part of that communication. The preparation that leads up to its publication is a vital component of our work, demanding great dedication, discussion, interaction and reflection on the current state of the economy and the outlook for inflation. The Board and staff meet at least six times in the course of five weeks and there are presentations of special topics, a great many bilateral meetings and draft reports are revised and discussed at length prior to publication. Therefore in this process the board members form their opinion on the determinants of inflation and how monetary policy should evolve. This kind of reporting was introduced by the Bank of England in 1993 and is a common practice among central banks that have inflation target regimes. Today a great number of banks publish inflation reports and in a survey carried out by Fracasso et al. (2003) our Monetary Policy Report was classified in 5th place out of a sample of twenty such reports, the Bank of England’s being judged the best. To provide a basis for discussions on monetary policy, the Board decides which are the key variables of the most likely economic scenario. The projections for these variables derive from sources considered to be the most realistic and widely accepted.

Before I conclude, let me again stress that the development of more inclusive financial sectors is an important objective, and as policymakers we need to pursue this without compromising on the prudential standards that sustain confidence in the financial system. Branchless banking has tremendous potential to increase the outreach of financial services provided the different players and regulators are able to work within common regulatory framework. And finally that we must adopt a collaborative stance in pursuing this important global agenda which can make a real difference for the millions of people that remain caught in poverty. 4  BIS Review 162/2009  On behalf of Bank Negara Malaysia I would also like to thank our principal facilitators for the workshop from the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor, the subject matter experts from World Bank, the representatives from Maxis Communications Malaysia and Global Exchange of Philippines, and the representative from Group Speciale Mobile Association who joins us from London. I also welcome the participation of the Alliance for Financial Inclusion in this Forum, and we look forward to working with all of you on developing more inclusive financial sectors in the Asian region. Finally, I would like to thank all the participants who have come in from all over Asia to support this Forum. I wish you a fruitful forum and hope that you will form valuable professional relationships during this event. BIS Review 162/2009  5
Measured in terms of velocity, after significant acceleration in the third quarter of last year, activity has moderated growth this year so far (Figure 1). In our baseline scenario, we project that the rate of expansion of final domestic demand will moderate further in the remainder of 2018. This will occur once the effect of the higher growth of more volatile items that have less capacity to permeate the rest of the economy dissipates, like the ones just mentioned. On the consumption side, this opinion assumes that the slowdown of the wage bill—given the behavior of employment and wages—limits the increase in household spending. In response to the traditional lag with which the labor market operates in the cycle, we can expect that the recovery of growth will translate into an increase in employment and greater growth of wages in the coming quarters (Figure 2). 1  On the investment side, gross fixed capital formation grew 3.6% annually in the first quarter, thanks to the construction and other works component that resumed positive expansion rates after almost two years. Plus, that machinery and equipment continues to be the most dynamic component of investment, with imports of capital goods that, as of May, excluding non-regular transportation, continued to improve. This, in a context where business expectations have returned to optimistic territory on aggregate (Figure 3). However, some numbers suggest that we cannot be sure yet that investment will be very dynamic, particularly because there we still see no significant change in the execution of large-scale projects.

China continues to be a source of risk, since it still has to resolve  4  imbalances in several of its markets. Added to this is the evolution of the oil price. If it increases or remains flat for longer than expected, it could have stronger effects on global growth and inflation. The bias and probability of external risk scenarios reinforces the need to maintain solid macroeconomic fundamentals, particularly for a small and open economy such as Chile’s. Actually, the recent events have had greater impacts in countries with greater indebtedness, fiscal deficit and / or current account deficits. At home, we estimate that the risks for activity are biased upwards. The data of the last few months have been higher than expected and we cannot rule out a scenario in which this greater dynamism persists, especially if investment improves above projections. This risk is partly moderated by the possibility that the labor market, and in particular private salaried employment, could take longer than expected to respond to the higher growth rates. On inflation, we estimate that risk balances are unbiased. The downward risks for its convergence to 3% have moderated. However, we forecast that CPIEFE inflation will remain below 2% for a while longer, considering that the determinants of inflation’s convergence to 3% in the medium term have not change significantly from March.
17 Taking all non-cooked food items together, prices went up by 2.8% in H1 2014. This is higher than overall inflation. The greater volatility reflects the periodic shocks in global food prices that have become more frequent in recent years. 18 Domestic inflationary pressures, however, remain firm. These stem mainly from the passthrough of higher costs, particularly wages, to consumer prices. The cost of services most affected, given their high labour content. As a result, the cost of eating out, education, healthcare, and recreation rose at a faster rate compared to overall inflation in the first half of 2014. 19 Taking together imported and domestic sources of inflation, Core Inflation was higher than the historical average but well contained – the forecast for Core Inflation is unchanged at 2-3%. Core Inflation was 1.8% in the second half of 2013, rose to 2.1% in first half of 2014, and is likely to increase slightly over the rest of the year. 20 But overall or CPI-All Items inflation is on a different trend. All-Items inflation was 1.9% in the second half of 2013, came down to 1.7% in the first half of this year, and is likely to continue easing through the rest of the year. The MAS is therefore narrowing the 2014 forecast range for All-Items inflation to 1.5–2.0% from 1.5–2.5%. Overall inflation is falling due to the moderation in housing costs and car prices. Government measures to cool the property market have helped stabilise prices and rent and higher COE supply has lowered premiums.

Another aspect that takaful agents must recognise is that takaful products embody universal value propositions that would appeal to all market segments, whether Muslim or not. One of the more distinct features of takaful is the distribution of surplus to takaful participants, reflecting the principles of solidarity, risk-sharing and mutuality among takaful participants. The outcome of this are not just socially meaningful products, but also commercially competitive ones. Take a motor takaful product as an example: In addition to the ‘No Claim Bonus’ feature that is common in conventional motor insurance, takaful participants could receive additional financial benefits when the takaful fund performs well through the sharing of surplus. Often, the advantages of the takaful products are not sufficiently highlighted, potentially hampering the competitiveness of takaful products The key is to continuously espouse the value propositions of takaful products. This is an aspect that agents could certainly help to address. The market potential for takaful products is so much larger than what is realised today. Let me offer you two key information. As at end-2016, insurance and takaful penetration in the B40 segment of working age stood at 30.3%, compared with the overall penetration rate of 46.8%. Second, the global Halal industry is worth USD2 trillion annually and Malaysia has a large and growing Halal industry. The question is to what extent the takaful industry fulfills the insurance needs of the Halal businesses.
This applies both to companies competing on international markets and those supplying goods and services to the domestic market. In comparison with other countries, it is particularly productivity gains in banks and other service sectors that stand out. Examples are automated processes and swifter payments in the financial industry and improved inventory and management systems in commerce and transport. In sum, these positive supply side shocks have increased the growth capacity of the Norwegian economy, and have played their part in keeping inflation at a low level. Monetary policy assessments  Monetary policy influences the economy with a lag. Norges Bank sets the interest rate with a view to stabilising inflation close to the target in the medium term. The interest rate path should provide a reasonable balance between the path for inflation and the path for capacity utilisation. When we reduced the interest rate in 2003, demand and output rapidly picked up. However, it took a long time for employment to rise and the next phase from a pick-up in employment to a fall in unemployment was also long. But now the upturn has entered into a mature phase. The enterprises in our regional network report that capacity constraints are now limiting further growth. Unemployment has fallen markedly over the past year. Wage growth appears to be rising, but so far only gradually. Prices for many inputs and services and building materials are rising markedly. Consumer price inflation is also expected to pick up further ahead. Thus, interest rates are rising.

The reason for this is that those investing our money today are to a greater extent assessed – and thereby also rewarded – in relation to other agents and on a shorter-term basis than was the case in the world of traditional banking. It is also simpler to follow in others’ footsteps, as there is more information on what others are doing. The crises we have experienced in recent years have recurrently shown that events assessed as almost improbable can nevertheless occur sometimes and will then have a severe impact. To use Tage Danielsson’s words, this type of risk could be described as follows: Before the event occurred, it was extremely improbable that what happened could actually happen. There are still those who believe that what happened was so incredibly unlikely that it probably did not really happen. And one can understand that they have their doubts, because according to their probability calculations, this sort of event happens so rarely. And if what happened was really true, the risk of it happening  2/5  again is ridiculously slight. Actually, it was lucky it did happen. Because now we know that it is almost definite that it will not happen again. It is possible that there are some inherent mechanisms in the agents’ ways of acting that may lead to these risks being undervalued. One such mechanism could be the fact that they are evaluated in the short term.
Should confidence be lost, a renewed fall in the dollar or a correction in the prices of financial assets would deliver another blow to the global economy. The situation in some emerging economies is likewise precarious. Lastly, we must bear in mind the difficulties currently being encountered by some of our neighbours, difficulties that could weaken or even delay the start of the upswing on our continent. Monetary policy In the unstable environment we are still experiencing, our monetary policy must remain expansionary. We know that our interest rates, currently at an historically very low level, will have to be increased if we wish to maintain price stability once the economic situation has been confirmed. The inflation outlook we published last March shows this clearly. However, we believe that it is not yet the moment to return to normalisation: •  Admittedly, the Swiss economy is now on a path of modest growth, but it has considerable idle resources and competition on the international markets is fierce. In the present circumstances, therefore, there is little risk of overheating. •  Growth in money supply is strong, but the preference for liquidity is unusually high against the current background of uncertainty and lending is showing only moderate expansion. Moreover, monetary aggregates have been somewhat inflated by the repatriation of funds which have until now been placed on the Swiss franc euro market.

Measures to promote growth would certainly be instrumental in ensuring the smooth future functioning of our economy, but they would also allow us to develop a climate of confidence necessary for today’s investment and consumption decisions. Their impact on the economy would thus not be negligible. As for monetary policy, its role in this area can only be to provide price stability, an essential factor for confidence and macroeconomic efficiency. Dawn of a new era Ladies and gentlemen, as the President of the Bank Council indicated earlier on, the National Bank is at an historic turning point today. As of tomorrow, our institution will be governed by new legislation. The new National Bank Act will enter into force in less than 24 hours. Our operational framework, our range of instruments, our organisation and our duty of notification will all be affected. Likewise, our mandate will be - perhaps not modified - but at least made more explicit. Article 5 of the new Act stipulates that “The National Bank shall pursue a monetary policy serving the interests of the country as a whole. It shall ensure price stability. In so doing, it shall take due account of the development of the economy”. The objective of price stability is not new. In fact, the National Bank has always been guided by this goal in its activities.
Luis M Linde: Performance of and outlook for the Spanish economy Testimony by Mr Luis M Linde, Governor of the Bank of Spain, before the Senate in connection with the draft State budget for 2016, Madrid, 23 September 2015. *  *  *  Luis M Linde: Performance of and outlook for the Spanish economy Testimony by Mr Luis M Linde, Governor of the Bank of Spain, before the Senate in connection with the draft State budget for 2016, Madrid, 23 September 2015. Ladies and gentlemen, In my appearance today, as part of the process of discussion and approval of the budget in the Senate, I will focus on analysing the performance of, and outlook for, the Spanish economy and on the role of the State budget for 2016, following approval of the draft law by the government on 31 July, and the role of the Budget Plan for 2016, submitted to the Council of Ministers on 11 September. The external setting of the Spanish economy Heightened uncertainty is presently the most noteworthy feature of the external setting of the Spanish economy. The recovery in the advanced economies and the return to normal on the international financial markets have been affected by the consequences of the global economic slowdown, as a result of the downturn in some emerging economies, particularly China, and especially in light of the difficulties involved in assessing its real magnitude in the medium term.

But in the limit monetary policy can be a backstop – as booms and busts increase the likelihood that inflation will be volatile in the future. Overall, the Committee’s Forward Guidance can forestall avoidable uncertainty about its “reaction function”, about how policy will be set. But it does not affect the greater uncertainty about the evolution of the recovery. Uncertainties about the economic outlook Of course, financial markets inevitably transform the Committee’s state-contingent guidance into predictions of when the Committee will begin to withdraw monetary stimulus; the markets trade instruments with different maturities, ie with time-contingent features not with statecontingent contractual triggers. But the MPC provided state-contingent guidance for a reason. We cannot wave away the uncertainties surrounding the performance of the real economy. If we only understood why productivity growth has been so weak, we could be more confident about whether or not it will recover in tandem with a recovery in spending. If that does happen, the fall in unemployment could be slow, and monetary stimulus might not need to be withdrawn for some time. If, on the other hand, productivity growth remains weak, job creation as the economy recovers could be strong, as it has been on average over the past couple of years. That is why there is a wide band of uncertainty around the MPC’s August forecast for unemployment. My own probability distribution for unemployment is broadly “flat” in the sense that I do not regard one of those scenarios as materially more likely than the other.
The volume of ATM transactions also increased by 5.1% to 6,654,992 (third quarter 2010: 6,333,073). Similarly, the value increased by 17.1% to K3,397.3 billion (third quarter 2010: K2,897.6 billion). 50. The total volume of cheques returned unpaid on account of insufficiently funded accounts increased by 5.4% to 4,428 (third quarter 2010: 4,202) cheques while the value decreased by 8% to K36.2 billion (third quarter 2010: K35.3 billion). The Bank would like to urge members of the public to always ensure that they fund their accounts sufficiently whenever they issue cheques. This will ensure that they do not face criminal charges under the National Payment Systems Act for bouncing cheques dishonestly or with intent to defraud. Economic programme 51. A follow-up International Monetary Fund (IMF) Mission visited the country from 28th October to 3rd November 2010 to conclude discussions for the 5th Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. The mission had fruitful discussions with the Zambian authorities and reached agreement on a set of macroeconomic policies and structural measures for the remainder of 2010 and 2011. 52. The IMF Executive Board meeting was held on 10th December 2010 and completed the fifth review of Zambia’s economic programme. This resulted in the immediate disbursement of an amount equivalent to SDR 18.395 million (about US $ million), bringing total disbursements under the ECF arrangement to SDR 201.7 million (about US $ million). 53. The IMF mission commended the authorities for Zambia’s economic prospects that have continued to improve as well as for having sound macroeconomic policies.

The general improvement in the availability of foreign exchange necessitated the Bank of Zambia’s participation in the market. In this regard, the Bank recorded a net purchase of US $ million compared with net purchase or sale of US $ million in the third quarter. Balance of payments 35. Preliminary data show that Zambia recorded an overall balance of payments (BoP) deficit of US $ million during the fourth quarter of 2010, compared to the surplus of US $ million recorded in the third quarter of the year. This was largely due to the unfavourable performance in both the current account balance and the capital and financial account. 36. During the period under review, the current account surplus declined to US $ million from US $ million recorded the previous quarter, largely on account of a decline in the merchandise trade surplus and widening of the net income deficit. 37. The merchandise trade surplus declined by 9.2% to US $ million in the fourth quarter of 2010, from US $ million recorded in the third quarter, following an increase in imports, which outweighed the rise in exports. Merchandise export earnings, rose by 5.2% to US $ million from US $ million recorded in the previous quarter. This was due to an increase in metal exports earnings by 7.3% to US $ million from US $ million in the previous quarter. 38.
Also, a number of external experts have indicated the housing market and private indebtedness as a risk factor.5 In other words, this matter is highly suited to the discussion about what macroprudential supervision can and cannot do or, if you like, how macroprudential policy can contribute to managing the trade-off between price stability and financial stability we are facing. 5  See OECD (2012) OECD Economic Surveys: Sweden, OECD Publishing, doi: 10.1787/eco_surveys-swe2012-en, IMF (2013) Sweden—2013 Article IV Consultation: Concluding Statement of the Mission, Stock-holm: 31 May 2013 and European Commission (2013) Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on Sweden’s 2013 national reform programme and delivering a Council opinion on Sweden’s convergence programme for 2012-2016, Brussels: 29 May 2013. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  The countercyclical capital requirement would have been activated One way of illustrating the possibilities of macroprudential policy to limit the risks ensuing from the debt build-up of the household sector is to consider how the countercyclical capital requirement would have been used if it had been in place. This requirement involves the banks building up an extra capital buffer when aggregate lending is high. In a crisis, the banks are then able to use this buffer to stimulate lending. Although this tool is not yet in place, we can assess fairly well how it would have been used historically, thanks to the fact that the Basel Committee has provided guidelines regarding when it is appropriate to activate the requirement.

Maybe even more so than what the brave souls in banking supervision who negotiated Basel II experienced! Of course, progress is being made. In the UK, work is concentrating on the development of a riskbased solvency regime as a counterpart to capital adequacy in the banking arena. This is part of the FSA’s Tiner project to overhaul the regulatory environment for insurers. At the EU level the first stage of a review of solvency requirements for insurers has now been completed. Designers of the next stage are now looking to the approach taken for banks under the Basel Accord, focusing on the three pillars to develop further EU solvency standards. BIS Review 29/2003  3  It’s worth looking a bit at the three pillar approach itself. For those of you unfamiliar with the banking jargon this approach involves combining requirements for minimum capital (the first pillar) with a supervisory review of each institution’s profile and internal processes (the second pillar). The third pillar involves market discipline where effective disclosure should allow a better understanding of the risks being taken on by different institutions. That allows the market itself rather than armies of regulators to do some of the work. The same set of principles should be equally relevant for insurance. But, we’ve got to recognise that the scale of change required is truly formidable! That’s especially true since disclosure leads us inexorably to accounting. After all meaningful disclosure requires a common approach to recording the value of insurance contracts.