samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But it can reduce the frequency and severity of crises. In this context transparency is important. There will still be crises in the future, but transparency will reduce their costs and help to keep governments closer to the straight and narrow. All central bankers will surely welcome that. Of course, the immediate crisis has receded, and some of the Asian countries, in particular, have recovered sharply over the past year. But we should not be misled by the calm after the storm. There will be future storms, and now is the time to prepare for them. There is no need for another international conference of the kind which led to the creation of the Bretton Woods institutions. But there remains a need for thinking as original and imaginative as that which inspired the Bretton Woods conference. The middle way is a start, but no more. David Ignatius has written about the “founding generation”, people such as Dean Acheson and George C. Marshall, who created the great post-war institutions. All of those institutions have now passed their fiftieth birthday. It is time to appraise carefully the architecture, foundations, plumbing and even bricklaying of that inheritance. Ignatius described the qualities of the founding generation as “resolve and clarity”. Those qualities are still required. Dean Acheson entitled his memoirs, “Present at the Creation”. Let us hope that, similarly, a new generation of officials will be able, at some future date, to look back at the creation of an open world economy in which financial crises were successfully contained.

It is my personal opinion that the Fed has bought time for fiscal authorities to get their house in order, but four years later I am not sure we are much closer to that goal. It is true that Washington politicians stopped bickering long enough in December to pass a budget, the first budget in four years. And the projected budget deficit is just 3 percent of GDP this fiscal year, down from 4.1 percent in 2013 and 7 percent in 2012. After five years of outsized deficits, the U.S. is finally on par with Mexico, whose deficit throughout the recovery never exceeded 2.8 percent of GDP. You might think that agreeing on a budget means the U.S. government can go about its business, taxing and spending and keeping the monuments open to tourists. But in the U.S. we have another obstacle, the debt ceiling. This ritual battle, which we have fought at least 87 times since the end of World War II, does not address the underlying imbalances at the root of our fiscal situation. Nevertheless, we revisit it regularly and did so in February when Congress actually approved raising the debt ceiling without a big fight. Last time, you may recall, things did not go so smoothly. The stock markets wobbled, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued warnings, and one of the credit rating agencies downgraded U.S. government debt.
But, there remains considerable uncertainty about that forecast and, given the persistent over-optimism about the growth outlook by Federal Reserve officials and others in recent years, we shouldn’t count our chickens before they hatch. Business fixed investment and housing are two key areas where activity has been disappointing. They need to kick in more forcefully for the economy to grow at an above trend rate for a sustained period. With respect to capital spending, the recent trajectory has been very soft relative to the apparent strong underlying fundamentals. Corporate cash flows have been strong, profit margins are high, balance sheets are healthy and financing generally appears readily available at low interest rates. Moreover, the absolute level of capital outlays is low so that the capital stock is expanding only slowly. Despite these positive fundamentals, real business spending on equipment and software has risen only 3.2 percent over the past four quarters and contracted in the first quarter. This is a bit of a puzzle to me. But, I expect it to be resolved by a pickup in capital spending. Recent trends in durable goods orders and conversations I have had with businesses in my district suggest that such a pickup may finally be occurring. On the housing side, residential investment has stalled out over the past few quarters.

The National Bank started such activities in 2014 when it created foreign investment securities statistics, which was then supplemented with data on domestic securities. In addition, the crisis has shown that the risks can increase largely not only in the banking system, but also in shadow banking. Therefore, there is a need for upgrading the statistics with data not only for depository institutions, but also for all other financial institutions. Following these trends in 2012, we started with the preparation of the statistics of the most important non-bank financial institutions, which enabled us to 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  constantly monitor their activities and the potential risks. We recently fully complied this statistics with the latest IMF’s Guide on monetary and financial statistics. The second segment is the improvement of databases on cross-border financial systems. The consequences of the global crisis have clearly emphasized the risk of international financial integration, in particular the global connection of systemically important institutions. Such a context has had major consequences on the requirements for increasing the volume and structure of statistical data that will give a better picture of these global connections with a special emphasis on international investment position statistics, as well as more detailed portfolio investment and direct investment statistics. The National Bank already prepares all these surveys on a regular basis, although there is room for further improvement in the area of international position.
This experience, unfortunately, did not only affect us here, but the whole continent and beyond, touching lives far and wide. I am referring to the infamous Slave Trade Era. Historians, time and again, narrate to us tales of how this wonderful tree was used as the resting place for our forefathers, who were captured into slavery as they were marched across this land, being traded as commodities from Africa to far away lands. It is now common knowledge, rather than myth, that our fore-fathers were being traded under this same spot on which we stand today, proud and free. After the abolition of the Slave Trade, the TREE attained a new significance as a “rendevous” or meeting place. It was from under this very tree that some of our fore-fathers were recruited and taken to fight in the First and Second World Wars. As mentioned earlier, later came the happy times of celebrations at Christmas, Independence Day and Labour Day. In the year 2002, the Bank decided to recognize the historical significance of the Mukuyu Tree and depicted it on the highest denomination of Zambian currency, the K50,000 banknote. It was therefore a matter of concern for us when the Tree and its surroundings fell into a deplorable state due to the Municipal Council’s inability to meet the financial obligations attendant to its maintenance as a historical monument and national heritage site. The Bank therefore decided to adopt the Tree as part of its corporate social responsibility.

Gent Sejko: Lending to and funding the Albanian agriculture sector Address by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at an event, organized to discuss on lending issues of the agriculture sector in Albania and launch the initiative on Albania Agribusiness and Tourism Support Facility (AATSP), Tirana, 26 January 2022. * * * Your Excellency Prime Minister, Honourable Madame Ministers, Honourable Head of Albania for the EBRD, Dear friends and colleagues, Let me first to thank you for the invitation to participate in this event, organized to discuss on lending issues of the agriculture sector in Albania and launch the initiative on Albania Agribusiness and Tourism Support Facility (AATSP) mechanism. The Bank of Albania has continuously welcomed the transparent and constructive dialogue amid public authorities, private sector, banking industry and international partners, to address issues which serve to unclog the potential development and welfare growth of Albania. In particular, allow me to emphasize the fact that – despite the considerable progress in the last years – the Albanian agriculture sector, overall, and branches related with it- agritourism and agribusiness – are still far from the full utilisation of both resources and potentials they have. In figures, almost half of the Albanian population lives in rural areas and around 1/3 of labour force in the country are employed in agriculture sector.
Joseph Yam: Can the euro be a benchmark for Asian monetary co-operation? Remarks by Mr Joseph Yam, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the keynote discussion: “The euro: a stabilising factor of the international monetary system. Can the euro be a benchmark for Asian monetary co-operation?” before the Paris Europlace Financial Forum: the euro markets in a global investment strategy, Hong Kong, 21 March 2005. *  *  *  It is a great pleasure to be here this morning to take part in this keynote discussion on the euro hosted by Paris Europlace. One of the great benefits of living in an international financial centre is the opportunity to share something of the life and culture of other parts of the world without leaving one's own city. We have always been fortunate in Hong Kong in our enjoyment of the fruits of European and particularly French - civilisation. We are currently enjoying, as part of "The Year of France in China", the superb Impressionism exhibition at the Hong Kong Museum of Art: together with all of the excellent performances in our international Arts Festival, and the growing popularity of al fresco dining, this is helping to create a very European atmosphere in Hong Kong this spring. And, from what I see on the streets, I do not get the impression that the strong euro is having any effect on sales of European fashion.

So it is critical that we are able to devise a strategy that could continuously retain and develop talent. While the supply of talent is abundant, the supply of top talent is scarce. The so-called “Talent Paradox”, where we find ourselves with a large pool of talent in the market, but have difficulty in finding competent talent, particularly in the more specialised areas is a reality, requiring a solution. In the context of organisational learning and development, I wonder whether we have been effective in equipping our employees with the needed competencies or proficiencies in our learning interventions, where teaching approaches such as case studies, experiential learning and reflective practices are common pedagogies applied to strengthen our developmental curriculum. This I believe requires profound pondering. Most of the problems we face in the 21st century, would likely require unique and creative solutions, especially if we want to position ourselves in that elite position where possessing the competitive edge is an imperative. Matthew E May, the author of “In Pursuit of Elegance” wrote about “Design Thinking”, a concept that requires an approach to solving problems far beyond the traditional way of problem solving. Great design is a result of a clear and thorough understanding of the user, competing resolution of competing tensions, multidisciplinary collaboration, rapid experimentation via prototypes with continuous modification and enhancement of ideas and solutions. I thought it is quite apt to extract the idea from the book to describe the current and future challenges face by the financial services industry.
Moreover, we can fall into the trap of measuring our success in piecemeal reforms without asking whether the whole spectrum of economic relations have moved forward together. Therefore, we must bring the people forward with the reforms and ensure that they are politically accepted. If this is not the case, it may become a big obstacle to rapid transition (as I will explain further in due course). Which reminds me of an old joke that we used to tell during socialism, and it goes something like this. During a preparatory seminar for future members of the then almighty Communist Party the local Party Secretary explained to the group of candidates that the future belongs to socialism and that socialism is the most advanced system in the world. A young candidate asks a question referring to permanent meat shortages under socialism: Mr Secretary, if we are so advanced how come there is no meat in our shops? The swift answer was: “My dear comrade, we are advancing so quickly into the future that the cattle can’t keep up with us”. I am not I arguing for slower reforms in transition, on the contrary, but let us not forget in our rush to market economies that transition is done for the benefit of the people. 2. What “ingredients” do we need to achieve sustained, rapid growth? Economists agree that for transition to be successful we need sustained growth. Therefore, the question of what needs to be done in transition ultimately leads to the question of what causes growth?

Socialism (as defined in Kornai, 2000), the predominant system in countries where EBRD operates today, has imploded, has collapsed. This system was not able to meet the growing demands of the population for a better life, that is to say: raising living standards, and the development of a civil society and political freedoms. In a globalized world, information on living standards and developments of civil society and political freedoms from the neighbouring West could not be hidden any more from most transition economies, and discontent grew. The political conditions for change are symbolized in the fall of the Berlin Wall. This created huge expectations among people in the countries of formerly socialist economies. The expectations of the population at that time were that there would be a rapid catch-up with the western standard of living (including political freedoms as well). With regard to the speed of catching up in terms of economic wellbeing, this turned out to be a naïve view. The main goal of any economic policy should be to increase the welfare of the population, which includes a sustained and high growth of GDP and a desirable distribution of income. In other words, we want welfare to increase; we want people to be better off. Not many people should have trouble agreeing with that statement. Today, indeed, there is evidence that the dual goals of growth and equality of income distribution are mutually compatible (Wolf, 2000).
In keeping with such aim, the overall policy thrust of banking supervision and regulation will be to promote higher standards of risk management among banking institutions. Towards such end, the Central Bank has already implemented several measures to further strengthen the supervision and regulation and these include: (a)  Introduction of enhanced minimum capital requirements,  (b)  Introduction of the market risk factor in the computation of capital adequacy,  (c)  Introduction of conditions for the quarterly publication of financial performance indicators, and  (d)  Introduction of provisioning requirements in the banking sector to cover potential credit risk. Prudential requirements imposed on banks will also be further strengthened in 2007. This will include the introduction of a general provision on performing advances and increasing the provisioning requirement for non performing loans; increasing the risk weights on residential mortgage loans and ‘other’ loans adopted in the capital adequacy computation; and the revision of the Single Borrower Limit in line with improved risk management by banks. In addition, the Central Bank intends to implement Basel II, the new international capital framework in 2008, with a standardised approach which will help better align a bank’s capital with its risk profile, enhance risk management and increase market discipline due to the need for greater market disclosure. Through such actions, it is expected to enhance the stability of the banking system and thereby provide greater confidence to all stakeholders and the general public.

Out of that pain and misery emerged a consensus – a hard won consensus – that low and stable inflation was a prerequisite for economic prosperity. More recently, though, there have been some worrying signs that cracks may be appearing in that consensus. A sense that inflation is somehow yesterday’s war. That central banks should focus more on growth. That a period of higher inflation may even aid the recovery. This is dangerous talk. It sometimes feels like we’ve been here before. One of the mistakes made by policymakers in the late 1960s was to allow inflation to get out of control after nearly two decades of price  2  King (1997), “Inflation targeting 5 years on”, speech given at the London School of Economics. 3  King (1997), “Changes in UK monetary policy: Rules and discretion in practice”, Journal of Monetary Economics. 4  George (1999), Annual Cornwall Lecture. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  stability. As Sir Alec Cairncross, who worked in a host of senior economic roles in the heart of the civil service during this period, put it “...governments in the last years of the 1960s …allowed inflation expectations to develop that proved increasingly difficult to extinguish” (Cairncross 1992). There is little doubt that policymakers of that time had a strong aversion to inflation, but they were complacent about the risks posed by further stimulus. It would be irresponsible to repeat the same mistakes again. How do we ensure that the lessons of yesteryear are not forgotten?
The Sveriges Riksbank Act also establishes that the Riksbank shall be autonomous, which means that we six members of the Executive Board, who make the decisions on the steering interest rates, may not seek or receive instructions from the government or parliament. The idea is that we are thus free to maintain price stability and will not be tempted to concentrate on short-term considerations when making our decisions. It may appear that this target forces the Riksbank to give lower priority to the development of the real economy. We only have a target for monetary policy. However, the preparatory work on the Riksbank Act stated that we shall “without setting aside the price stability target, support the objectives of the general economic policy with the aim of achieving sustainable growth and a high level of employment”. In any event, the assessments of the future path of the real economy play an important role in our decisions, as developments in economic activity are an important component in determining inflation. However, what is even more important is that there is no contradiction between good growth and price stability in the long term, quite the contrary. If we look at developments during the 1990s, growth after 1992 was on average 3.0 per cent a year, despite the fact that inflation had been below the target level for several years. Unemployment had at the same time declined from 9 per cent to around 4 per cent.

One simple method is to assume that potential output over time grows at trend because the labour force expands and productivity rises. Developments in the output gap provide a basis for assessing cyclical developments and can thus also shed light on domestic price and cost pressures in the economy. It is difficult to know how high capacity utilisation is at any given time. Output and employment figures are often revised and do not therefore always present an accurate picture of the current economic situation. Norges Bank therefore also uses a number of other indicators to take the temperature of the Norwegian economy. The period of strong expansion that began in 1997 came to an end in winter 2003. The Norwegian economy was hit by a pronounced downturn in the global economy. An economic turnaround has now occurred in Norway, with a soft landing after the long period of high domestic cost inflation and sluggish external activity. Output is showing a marked increase, but inflation is low. Monetary policy easing From spring 1999 to December 2002, the interest rate in Norway was fairly stable at between 5.5 per cent and 7 per cent. In other countries, the interest rate fell in 2000 and 2001 when the ICT and equity bubbles burst. The interest rate differential between Norway and other countries widened due to cyclical divergence. The expansion continued for a longer period in Norway, with strong wage and cost inflation. The 2002 wage settlement resulted in very high wage growth for the fifth consecutive year.
Having in mind the important ramifications, a coherent policy mix is needed in order to ensure a smooth transition to low-carbon economies and to preserve financial stability. This is a new challenge that the corporate sector should face as well. Ladies and gentlemen, From the beginning, the aim of this seminar was to bring together experts from the region to discuss current financial stability challenges and to exchange knowledge in dealing with such challenges. A constant, over the past three years, is the special session dedicated to young professionals’ research at the central banks. Along with the IMF’s involvement, we intend to continue and build on the tradition of this international seminar, bringing together experienced central bankers both from advanced, as well as emerging market and developing economies for an open and enriching exchange of views on relevant financial stability issues. On this note, allow me to stop here and wish every success to the works of this seminar. Thank you! 5

Finally, let me thank the Forum for inviting me and wish all the participants a very fruitful and productive day. 10. Thank you for your attention. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches