samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Or carburettor would have been blocked. The mechanic would hypothesise all possible reasons for the failure of the engine. Third, experiments are designed to test each hypothesis made. The mechanic may open the fuel tank to see whether there is fuel. If there is no fuel, he will try to start the engine having filled the tank with fuel. If there is fuel in the tank, then he would examine the second hypothesis, that is, whether there is a blockage in the tube that distributes fuel to the engine. If there is a blockage, he will clean it and try to start the engine. If there is no blockage, then he would experiment the third hypothesis, namely, the working of the electrical system. In this manner, he would experiment all the hypotheses he has made one by one and make relevant conclusions. Fourth, the results of the experiments are analysed in order to ascertain whether the hypothesis is proved. Or else, when several hypotheses have been made, to ascertain which hypothesis has been proved. Fifth, making final conclusions out of the observed results of the experiments. A disciplined motorcycle mechanic would follow these steps involved in the scientific method and attend to the required repair of the fault in the motorcycle. In this sense, a sideway motorcycle mechanic is not different from a trained scientist, since both follow the scientific method in reaching conclusions.

As such, there is no dearth of hypotheses which scientists could make and a dearth of theories which they can formulate. That is good news for prospective scientists. However, one theory which is valid today could be disproved by another theory to be formulated tomorrow. Hence, all theories are subject to the same property: the property of refutability. In fact, Karl Popper’s argument was that if a theory cannot be refuted, then it does not become a theory. Hence, any scientific research will discover only a truth and not the truth. This means that all scientific research studies undertaken in all the disciplines would produce only a relative truth and not the absolute truth. With all the scientific apparatuses, techniques and computing capacity available today, science still cannot reach out to the absolute truth. As such, the task of finding the absolute truth has been relegated to religion and mystics. This may be discouraging news for those who are engaged in scientific research. But, that has been the way of science throughout its history and such discovery of relative truth has been adequate for the purpose of building the human knowledge base and putting it to practical use by mankind. In the modern world, the discovery of absolute truth may therefore be irrelevant. Conclusions A researcher is not a propagandist or a dictator. His task is to follow an accepted set of principles, guidelines and an ethical and moral code to discover a truth, and not the truth, and add it to the extant knowledge base.
Dimitar Radev: Accession to the euro area - a catalyst for social and economic prosperity Summary of a statement by Mr Dimitar Radev, Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, at the Annual Government Meets the Business conference, Sofia, 29 January 2019. * * * During the Annual Government Meets the Business conference dedicated to Bulgaria’s path to the eurozone, the Bulgarian National Bank’s Governor, Mr. Dimitar Radev, outlined the activities of the central bank in this process and the anticipated effects for the economy and the business from the national currency’s entry into the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) and the adoption of the euro in Bulgaria. Provisionally, the work will be conducted in two stages: a short- and long-term. The short-term stage is linked to the preparation for simultaneous accession to the Banking Union and lev’s entry into ERM II. The second stage is Bulgaria joining the euro area. Mr. Radev underlined that the BNB is currently focused on the first stage, the outcomes of which will determine the next steps to follow. In terms of content, the first stage consists in joining the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Mechanism. As regards the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the BNB is concentrated on three work blocks. The first one is creating the necessary regulatory framework. Overall, work in this direction was completed with the adoption of the necessary package of legislative amendments by the National Assembly at the end of last year.

So, imposing new trade barriers – or “bilateral deals” – on some trade partners not only has almost no chance of eliminating the overall current account deficit, but it also threatens long-run economic growth. Alternatively, it would also be misleading for countries to carry out non-cooperative domestic macroeconomic policies. Competitive devaluations first: after some unilateral and unfortunate declarations last week, several of us on the Governing Council of the ECB felt the need to reiterate that during the last IMF Annual Meetings in DC last October we committed with all our partners to a multilateral approach saying that, I quote, “we will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes”. Any deviation from this common rule would be at the cost of breaking mutual trust and global growth. Speaking of the Governing Council of the ECB, let me say a few words on our monetary policy. It is following, with confidence and with patience, a path of gradual normalisation. But one shouldn’t focus excessively on the sole instrument of monthly net asset purchases: whether we end them in September or taper them somewhat more gradually is not a “deep existential” question… There are two more important issues: First, we prefer, as in Irish dancing, a four-hand reel rather than a solo; we will rely more and more on the entire policy package, including the sizeable stock of acquired assets, the forthcoming reinvestments and the forward guidance on interest rates. And we will follow a predictable sequence.
It is easy to understand why lenders may find credit sensitive alternatives attractive in the short-term, but what is less clear is why non-financial borrowers who look to their financial service providers to help them manage their risks would want to see their cost of borrowing being driven by thin liquidity in CP and CD markets. And it is clear they don’t, in a survey of borrowers by the Alternative Reference Committee’s Nonfinancial Corporates Working Group in March this year, over 80% of respondents would prefer alternatives based on SOFR than on credit sensitive alternatives. [16] In fact if lenders looked past the short term benefits of substitutability they too would see that when  Descending safely: Life after Libor ‐ speech by Andrew Bailey | Bank of England  Page 5  the limited durability of these credit sensitive rates is combined with the need, and in some jurisdictions the requirement, to ensure there is access to robust fallbacks the sensible option is to make your primary rate selection the most robust you can. In the UK there is a clear consensus that credit sensitive rates are not required or wanted as part of sterling LIBOR transition and in my view this is sensible. Widespread use of RFRs will ensure we are using benchmarks that will remain transparent to users and embed rates that have long-term durability for the future. Conclusion The use of SOFR in US dollar markets is growing.

For instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects a current account deficit in the United States of just under 3% of GDP this year, while the Chinese surplus is expected to have fallen to around 2½% of GDP. But, as with the euro area, the crucial question is how much of this narrowing is simply a reflection of the cyclical weakness in the deficit economies or whether it represents a more durable shift in the pattern of demand in both deficit and surplus economies. If it is down to the former, then the imbalances can be expected to reemerge as recovery proceeds. The answer to this question depends very much on the degree to which the substantial shortfall, relative to pre-crisis trends, of activity in the deficit economies represents a permanent impairment of supply potential as a result of the financial crisis and subsequent recession, or whether it will ultimately be reversed. Successive Inflation Reports and speeches by several MPC members 6 have addressed this issue in the context of the United Kingdom, and I think it is fair to say that the evidence is presently inconclusive.
For the SNB, as Switzerland’s central bank and monetary authority, the ECB’s project raised the issue of whether the Swiss franc should be included as a settlement currency on the  9  In October 2000, the SWX-Repo was integrated into Eurex under the name Eurex-Repo. 10  Markets in Financial Instruments Derivative: This European law aims to increase competition and consumer protection in investment services. As of 1 November 2007, it replaced the Investment Services Directive. 11  SIX Group Media Release, 15 March 2011. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  T2S platform. Although the formal decision was solely the responsibility of the SNB, in the spirit of the “Gemeinschaftswerk” the central bank consulted all stakeholders (including the SIX Group) before reaching an informed decision. On the basis of the stakeholders’ costbenefit analysis, which highlighted the complexity of the market infrastructure challenges confronting the Swiss market, the SNB decided not to include the Swiss franc as a T2S settlement currency at this stage12. That said, though Switzerland decided to stand back from this process, T2S will nevertheless impact the Swiss market and accelerate structural reforms of Switzerland’s FMI, which will in turn affect our money market operations. After all, securities denominated in foreign currencies are accepted as collateral on the Swiss repo market. In fact, collateral denominated in euros account for about 50% of the posted securities. In the future, settlement of these securities and potentially also of the securities denominated in other eligible currencies will involve some use of the T2S infrastructure.

But it illustrates vividly that the interpretation of ex post outcomes depends critically on understanding the ex ante process which generated those outturns. Another example shows that it is not just lay people who find statistical inference difficult. Experts of all kinds do too. The advent of DNA profiling in the 1980s led to the use of match probabilities in criminal cases. The jury is told that the probability of finding a match between the sample taken from the scene of the crime and the DNA of the defendant is, for example, only 1 in 500,000. That is sometimes taken as evidence that the probability of the defendant being innocent is also only 1 in 500,000. Such an inference is incorrect. In a city such as London where there might be about 5 million people who could have committed the crime, around ten people would have DNA that matched the relevant sample. Hence, in the absence of any other evidence, the probability that the defendant is guilty, far from being overwhelming, is only one in 10. Of course, in practice other evidence is usually available. But this incorrect statistical reasoning has swayed enough cases to be given its own name - the prosecutor’s fallacy.11 The cases of Sally Clark and Angela Cannings, both convicted and imprisoned for the alleged murder of their own children, show the desperate consequences of the false use of statistics to create a presumption of guilt to resolve the cause of apparently inexplicable events.
These preliminary estimates suggest a one-off inflation impact of 1 to 2 percentage points. Moving forward, the impact would ride on the range of products affected, as well as, among other things, on the timeline: whether it would be a one-step or a two-step move. The many unknowns in this area prevent us from making any final estimates. When making this decision we certainly took into account that potential changes to the tax system are not impossible. These have been discussed and will be discussed moving forward. While we are on this subject, we would like to ask the Government to make the parameters of these initiatives known before they are implemented so these could be reflected in our monetary policy, enabling a consistent and smooth monetary policy stance. This is what we would like of the Government in relation to tax reforms. QUESTION from TASS Agency: When you reviewed lending to the economy, were you guided by certain adjustments to the macroeconomic forecast? Also, could you please comment on capital outflow. Were there any revisions in the three-year estimate? Thank you. ELVIRA NABIULLINA: Yes, we have indeed made some corrections. Overall, as I have noted, our assessment of 2017 is more positive, while 2018–2019 assumptions are unchanged. This does indeed translate into movement in various indicators. On the subject of lending, we are expecting growth, and we expect this growth to be gradual and sufficiently smooth.

Up to now payments for over 14 thousand businesses and over 93 thousand households, totalling more than BGN 9 billion, have been suspended , which really and considerably eases the financial conditions during the hardest time of the crisis. The crisis has moved the external financing conditions issue to the top of the agenda. You know that the crisis triggered the accumulation of deficits which must be financed and the required financial buffers must be maintained. Therefore, we had to give an additional signal to markets and investors that Bulgaria stays stable in the crisis in terms of its financial position and its 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  monetary regime. This signal was given with the EUR 2 billion swap line set up between the European Central Bank and the Bulgarian National Bank, and it has been read unequivocally as a positive one by markets, rating agencies, and investors alike. I want to point out one very important thing – the conclusion about Bulgaria’s strong financial position remains valid now, despite the developments in the last months. A drastic change of this direction would be a mistake with serious repercussions. All measures so far pursued in relation to the banking sector, which I believe were successful and timely, do not, in any way, diminish our concern of what is happening and is going to happen in the coming months.
In a situation where the proportion of public spending has reached a very high level (in 1999 it accounted for 49% of GDP in the euro area, compared with only 39% in Japan and 34% in the United States) and where government deficits are limited by the Treaty and can no longer be covered by inflation, the role of private savings in the future financing of retirement attains a crucial dimension. I should like to end this first part by saying that the positive effect of price stability on domestic savings naturally contributes, in the world capital market we live in, to guaranteeing the lasting attractiveness of the euro area for long-term financial investments by non-residents. This also requires that other economic policies contribute to a favourable environment, through structural measures aiming at increasing flexibility in the labour market and efficiency in the markets for goods, services and capital. I have emphasised the effects of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy on the volume of savings and its consolidation. The creation, with the euro, of a vast currency zone also contributes to a more efficient management of savings. BIS Review 6/2000  2  2. The creation of the euro is leading to larger and more integrated financial markets, improving the allocation of financial savings. The creation of the euro has accelerated the development and integration of the capital markets in Europe, which have been helped along in recent years by financial liberalisation and technological innovation.

From a portfolio theory point of view it could be argued that the optimum result is achieved through using a combination of all three approaches, and that this combination is far better than any of the individual options alone. Rules constitute a very direct approach and one that offers the greatest clarity to institutions on what supervisors expect from banks, thereby leading to a higher level of transparency from both the perspective of the banks and the supervisors, and promoting comparability between institutions. However, adopting a rules-based option alone, even if they are market friendly, entails certain disadvantages. It tends to be inflexible and therefore might preclude innovation. It could also fail to take account of bank or business line specificities. This is why the Committee decided to complement the minimum capital requirements with the second pillar, known as supervisory review. This allows a discretionary approach according to the situation of specific banks or types of business - very much like the principles-based policy approach. The benefits of such an approach are flexibility and adaptability to specific needs, both now and over time as situations and responses change. 2  BIS Review 47/2003  But this approach alone would also have its shortcomings. Market participants could find it difficult to compare banks. The lack of a common standard across institutions might actually reduce transparency, since markets might not know or understand why supervisors established particular requirements for certain banks but not for others.
However, the Taylor Rule is a rule-of-thumb, whose claims of empirical validity are based on its ability to track policy during periods of relatively modest volatility.2 The current recession is outside of the empirical experience of Taylor Rules calibrated to describe Federal Reserve actions. We need to look beyond heuristic descriptions like the Taylor Rule to a more complete analysis of optimal monetary policymaking within a dual mandate framework. This topic has been studied extensively in the macroeconomic literature. Interestingly, one of the first  1  The Committee’s interpretation of its mandate often is expressed as inflation of “2 percent, or a bit less.” This does not mean keeping inflation in a narrow band capped by 2%. The “2 percent, or a bit less” interpretation of our price stability mandate comes from the responses to the Survey of Economic Projections which FOMC participants submit four times per year, and in which the majority of participants have said 2% is their long-run forecast under conditions that include appropriate monetary policy. Because inflation is determined in the long run by monetary policy, it follows that these long-run forecasts can be interpreted as participants’ views on the level of inflation most consistent with the Committee’s mandate. The “or a bit less” is added because a minority of participants submit long-run forecasts that are below 2%. 2  The exercise is described in Taylor, John B. 1993. “Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice,” CarnegieRochester Series on Public Policy 39, pp. 195–214; and Taylor, John B. 1999.

“An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules,” in John B. Taylor (ed.) Monetary Policy Rules, University of Chicago Press. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  modern treatments is due to John Taylor in an article published in Econometrica in 1979.3 This framework continues to be a mainstay of optimal policy analysis, as evidenced by a large literature that includes work by Michael Woodford in recent years.4 Taylor expresses the central bank’s dual-mandate objective as monetary policymakers attempting to minimize the weighted sum of squared deviations of inflation and the level of output from their goal values. That is, a central bank attempts to minimize a simple quadratic loss function like the following: L = (π – π*)2 + λ * (y – y*)2 Here π and y are inflation and the (natural) logarithm of output, and π* and y* are the policy goals for these variables. In most formulations, y* is the log of the level of potential output – the level of output at which resource slack has a neutral influence on the level of inflation. Thus, (given the properties of logarithms) y – y* is the usual output gap, the percentage difference between actual and potential output. And π – π* is the gap between the actual and desired rates of inflation. Ideally, we’d like both of these gaps to be zero, but this usually won’t be the case.
In other words, the countries with surpluses had exported many more goods than they had imported. In return, they had invested the surpluses in bonds and other assets in the countries with deficits. One could say that this reflected an increased willingness to save in the world economy – a global savings glut. This surplus contributed to pushing down long-term interest rates in the world. At the same time, there was a lot of capital to invest in the countries with deficits. A large share of this found its way into the property markets, where prices soared. It is not unusual for such international imbalances to lead to problems sooner or later. The situation is reminiscent of that which arose following the oil crises in the 1970s. The large increases in oil prices then meant that the oil-producing countries were sitting on huge amounts of dollars, the currency in which oil is normally traded. These so-called oil dollars, or petrodollars, were channelled through banks in the west into loans to countries in, above all, Latin America. However, it was gradually revealed that the loans had been granted on overly optimistic grounds, and many countries found it increasingly difficult to pay the interest on their debts. This led to the debt crisis at the beginning of the 1980s. We thus now have a similar problem with global imbalances in the form of large current account surpluses in some countries and deficits in others.

In earlier times, the compliance function was largely left to a single, usually mid-level, individual within the organisation, whose principal job was to serve as a contact point with the regulator, or to handle matters relating to anti-money laundering and counter financing of terrorism. Today, almost all financial institutions have a compliance function, staffed with whole teams dedicated to all aspects of a firm’s compliance with relevant laws, regulations and internal policies. Indeed, we have progressed. Many efforts have been taken to continuously strengthen the supervisory framework. Bank Negara Malaysia has identified the compliance function as one of the key control functions in a financial institution – right up there with senior management, risk management function, and finance and reporting functions. In 2015, we issued the compliance standard for financial institutions, which raised our expectations of boards and management to address the full breadth of structural, operational, resource and process issues that go into assuring compliance. We also issued strengthened corporate governance standards which reinforce the accountability of the boards in overseeing an effective compliance function. While it should be obvious why compliance is so important, I think it bears repeating. If motivations for an increased focus on compliance are exclusively driven by the avoidance of regulatory fines, then we are missing the big picture. We should be aware that a strong compliance function and culture makes good business sense. Today I would like to address the following matters: i.