samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
And the global population scarcely budged, held in check by unchanged food supplies, as th  7  predicted by Thomas Malthus in the late 18 century. Not for nothing was this called the Malthusian era. Another example of this secular stagnation, a favourite of mine, is provided by plotting heights from excavated skeletons records. These are a diagnostic on levels of health and nutrition. Male skeleton heights were essentially unchanged, at 160-170cm, for at least 2,000 years prior to 1750. Humans grew neither physiologically nor financially. And neither, then, did the societies in which they lived. That makes the contrast with developments in the last quarter of the millennium all the more striking. From around 1750, GDP per head suddenly took off and has kept on rising ever since, growing by around 1.5% per year. The magic of compound interest means these growth rates have transformed people’s living standards. The time it takes for living standards to double has shrunk to less than 50 years. The impact on people’s well-being, financial and psychological, has been transformational. It has meant each generation has been around 50% better off than its predecessor. After 1750, generational progress suddenly became visible, children to parents to grandparents. Growth in living standards became a social norm, in a way never previously true in human history. Life’s travellator turned into an escalator. And not just for GDP. Broader metrics of well-being tell a similar tale.

Indeed, it  is evidence of the lower tail of companies with flat-lining productivity having lengthened during the crisis and by more in the UK than in competitor countries, consistent with the long tail hypothesis. Why might the UK’s long tail, and hence technological diffusion, problem be more acute than elsewhere? Several reasons have been posited and probed. 73  One interesting window on this issue is provided by  looking at the intensive and extensive diffusion margins, to see if these provide clues. Looking at a range of ICT technologies, the data suggests that high and relatively consistent levels of technological adoption, but low and variable rates of technological penetration, mimicking the international evidence. Take internet access. Almost all UK businesses – in excess of 90%– now have internet access. But the UK 74  ranks poorly compared to other OECD countries in terms of broadband penetration (Chart 9). That is true  not only for standard broadband connectivity, but also for more advanced infrastructure such as optical fibre connections. Those low rates of penetration largely reflect large/small firms differences. As with other OECD countries, broadband usage by large firms is almost 100%. But for smaller firms that falls to 93%. Similarly, the share of UK businesses with a website is above the OECD average, at around 83%. But that masks sizable large/small firm differences. Almost 100% of UK large firms use websites, which has been the case for a decade. Only two-thirds of small firms had a website in 2007.
The Government Pension Fund has a prudent investment strategy, with broad risk diversification, and a real return of 4 per cent is expected in the long term. There are examples of companies and investors that achieve a considerably higher return on capital over time. However, it is important to remember that for each successful investor earning high returns, there are many others with the same ambition and risk willingness, but with a record of poorer performance and bankruptcies. The Government Pension Fund cannot run the risk of ending up among the worst performers. The globalisation of financial markets provides the Fund with good opportunities for investing and diversifying risk. However, we cannot insulate the Fund from wide annual swings in the value of the  12  Most of the central government’s cash flow from the sale of oil and gas is derived from the extraction of wealth under the seabed (economic rent), while the remainder is a normal return on invested capital. 8  BIS Review 10/2006  investments. We invest in international equity markets where prices fluctuate widely. These fluctuations are the reason why equity investments generate a higher return over time. The best year in the Fund’s history so far was 2003, when it posted a real return of 11 per cent. This stood in sharp contrast to the previous year’s result, which was -6 per cent.

16.07.2020  50th anniversary of the UNAAC Margarita Delgado Deputy Governor  Good afternoon. Thank you very much, Manuel. And my thanks also to Cristina for this invitation for me to speak to you today, on the 50th anniversary of the UNACC. It is a shame that we have not been able to celebrate this anniversary as was originally planned. We are living through strange and difficult times, but we must adapt to them. Yet despite this unique scenario, a 50th anniversary is an event well worth celebrating. Anniversaries, especially those which mark the passage of a decade, not least a halfcentury, are an ideal time to take stock of our achievements. Undoubtedly during this period a great deal has been achieved, but if you will allow me, in my supervisory capacity, I would like to make some mention of those areas where we must continue to improve. Over these 50 years we have been through several banking crises. The picture of our financial system as it stands today is naturally the result of these crises. And one point to note in this “family” photo is the large number of cooperatives which are present. The truth of the matter is that a highly significant number of credit cooperatives, or rather, a highly significant number of yourselves, have overcome these crises.
When I was at the Central Bank of Ireland, and where I am now, we would still have the same concern, which is: where do you strike a balance between recognising that this is an important source of revenue versus whether it is guaranteed to be here into the future. For any incoming government, having a prudent approach to managing that would be important. You’re nine months into the job: what do you think the advantages are for Ireland of having the former Governor of the central bank here in such a key role at the ECB? What’s very interesting about the ECB is that our only focus is on the overall performance of the euro area. The euro area is a very important trade partner for Ireland. What is good for the wider euro area would typically be good for Ireland. What I can say more generally is that the ECB has staff from everywhere in the EU. It’s very interesting to have that diversity. We talked earlier on about savers versus debtors. That’s important because that differs across the euro area. Some countries have big manufacturing sectors. Other countries are more focused on tourism or technology. It differs so much that having staff — and, if you like, the Executive Board membership — that reflects the diversity of the euro area makes for a very interesting workplace and I think makes for better-quality policymaking. One of the things we’ve been very worried about here for quite some time is Brexit.

A temporary phase, which we are in, of low interest rates makes it more likely that we will return to a situation where savers get a better deal. It is a temporary phase, but there is no doubt that there are consequences for those looking to earn income. This is not a situation that is ideal. But we are still in the legacy of the crisis and I think this policy path is correct. We also always say that, in terms of the speed of the recovery, European fiscal policymakers can do more. Those countries which have fiscal space can do more to accelerate the recovery. Some have said that the continued low interest rates and quantitative easing have had benefits for large investment funds, and for the area of property investments in particular these benefits come at the expense of individual prospective house buyers, or indeed people who end up renting. It’s become an issue here as it has in other parts of Europe. How would you respond to that? The low interest rate environment has many benefits. It helps to create jobs. For those with a 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  mortgage, it reduces the cost of maintaining that mortgage. For highly indebted governments there is a saving in terms of debt service payments. But there is no doubt about it: it does mean that it raises the purchase price of homes.
News conference  Berne, 14 December 2017 Andréa M. Maechler  Introductory remarks by Andréa M. Maechler  I will begin my remarks with a review of the situation on the financial markets, before going on to discuss the progress made in reference interest rate reform. Situation on the financial markets  Let me start with developments on the financial markets. The monetary policy pursued by the large central banks was once again the focus of attention for the financial markets in the second half of the year. Given moderate inflation growth, financial market participants are expecting only a very gradual normalisation of monetary policy across the world. Against this backdrop, government bond yields have remained persistently low. Muted expectations regarding a move away from expansionary monetary policy, coupled with favourable economic data and good corporate results, have contributed to largely positive risk sentiment on the financial markets. This has been reflected, for instance, in a stock market rally, lower yield spreads on corporate bonds and reduced demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc. In this positive market environment, volatility has remained low and volatility for the US equity and bond markets, calculated using option prices, has dropped to record lows (cf. chart 1). Despite positive economic data in Europe, European stock indices have risen only moderately. The Stoxx Europe 600 has climbed some 3% since mid-year. One reason for the modest stock market performance in Europe is the strengthening of the euro, which impaired corporate earnings growth somewhat.

We may not see the effects of these reforms right away but we must continue pressing on with the reform effort and not let reform fatigue get in our way. Productivity also depends on the availability and quality of public goods. With a strong fiscal position, the Thai government this fiscal year has opted to pursue much needed infrastructure projects. Key infrastructure investment projects include the expansion of the mass transit network in Bangkok, water resource management, and an integrated logistics system. These public investments will ease bottlenecks and allow firms to focus on improving their efficiency and productivity. The importance of productivity cannot be overstated. But with integrated world financial markets, exporting firms must also learn to cope with exchange rate risk. We encourage exporters to hedge against foreign exchange rate risk, to bill their exports in foreign currencies other than the US dollar, and to use imports as a natural hedge. Your Excellencies, Ladies and gentlemen,  2  BIS Review 20/2007  The risk of global imbalances has been with us and will remain with us for some time to come. Each country has to do its own part in managing the risk. For us, we will forge ahead with our economic and political reforms. But major economies must also do their best to mitigate global imbalances since this is a global problem. We must solve it together. International policy dialogues such as the Fundinitiated Multilateral Consultation would need to be strengthened.
This makes me more confident that job growth in January was temporarily depressed by unusually bad winter weather. Other labor market indicators, such as initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits and the employment components of both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing business surveys have also shown improvement recently. Although there is still uncertainty over the timing and speed of the labor market recovery, I do expect that job growth will increase considerably more rapidly in the coming months. We should welcome this. A substantial pickup is sorely needed. Even if we were to generate growth of 300,000 jobs per month, we would still likely have considerable slack in the labor market at the end of 2012. So, why is the economy finally showing more signs of life? In my view, the improvement reflects three developments. First, household and financial institution balance sheets continue to improve. On the household side, the 2008–09 rise in the saving rate appears to have stabilized in the 5 percent to 6 percent range. Meanwhile, the amount of money they need to service their debt (for mortgages, cars, credit cards, etc.) has fallen sharply to levels that prevailed during the mid-1990s. Debt service has been pushed lower by a combination of debt repayment, refinancing at lower interest rates and debt write-offs. Financial institutions have strengthened their balance sheets by retaining earnings and by issuing equity. As a result, some measures of bank credit are beginning to expand again. Second, monetary policy and fiscal policy have provided support to the recovery.

Of course, Queens is special not just for its central location, but also for its extraordinary diversity. Queens continues to serve as a land of opportunity for immigrants from all over the world. Roughly 46 percent of Queens’ population is foreign born – more than four times the national average and higher than any other county in the country with the exception of Miami-Dade. Sizable communities of immigrants from countries ranging from Columbia to Korea, Ecuador to Egypt, Greece to Guyana, and Italy to India have made Queens their home. This morning I will talk to you about national and regional economic conditions. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System. Introduction to the New York Fed By way of introduction, let me start with a synopsis of what the New York Fed is, what we do and what makes my job so interesting. The New York Fed is part of the Federal Reserve System, America’s central bank, and was created by Congress in 1913. With this act, Congress delegated to the Fed System its constitutional authority to manage the supply of money in the nation’s economy. Congress designed the central bank to be decentralized, representative of all regions of the country and independent of the political process.
The response to the new note has been predominantly positive; feedback indicates that the public find the theme and the design appealing, and the security features easy to remember. The SNB’s extensive information campaign surrounding the 50franc note in Switzerland and Liechtenstein played a role here. Among experts – both at home and abroad – the note is seen as high-quality and cutting-edge in terms of its security features. First impressions suggest that, overall, the new 50-franc note is more stable and, as hoped, more resistant to tearing than the eighth-series notes. However, given that so little time has elapsed, we do not yet have any hard data or long-term forecasts of the quality and fitness for circulation of the new notes. We do have some initial data on the  Page 1/3  Berne, 10 May 2017 Fritz Zurbrügg  News conference on new 20-franc note  security front. So far, only a handful of crude counterfeits have come to our attention; these were spotted immediately and withdrawn from circulation. We are happy to say that our logistics strategy for the issue worked well. The new 50-franc notes were available in the right place at the right time, right across the country. The decision to include the manufacturers of ATMs and other types of banknote-processing equipment early in the process paid off – the changeover was virtually seamless. The process of returning old 50-franc notes has so far also gone as expected. So far, over two-thirds of the old (eighthseries) 50-franc notes have been exchanged.

So, all in all we are very pleased with the largely smooth issue of the first denomination in the new banknote series. We trust the process will be equally smooth for the second denomination, the 20-franc note. I’d now like to introduce the ‘protagonist’ of today’s event in more detail. The main colour of the new 20-franc note is red, as in the previous series, however the new note is slightly smaller than its predecessor. The innovative Durasafe® substrate used in the rest of the series is of course also deployed in the 20-franc note. It consists of two outer layers made of cotton paper and an inner layer of polymer core for additional strength. The inspiration behind the new banknote series is, as you know, ‘The many facets of Switzerland’. Each denomination depicts a typically Swiss characteristic, which is then illustrated graphically using a key motif. Specifically, the denominations profile our country’s organisational talent, creativity, wealth of experiences, humanitarian tradition, scientific expertise and communicative flair. The 20-franc note focuses on Switzerland’s creativity, highlighting the country’s vibrant cultural and artistic scene in a variety of areas. The key motif for the 20-franc note is light. Light makes visual perception of the natural world possible, but it also allows us to behold works fashioned by human hand; it is thus closely connected with the theme of creativity.
Total corporate debt has remained stable as a percentage of GDP. In the domestic market, the corporate bond placement has remained high and many companies took advantage of the favorable global conditions and resorted to external financing via bonds. In addition, stock issuance increased and there was a substantial inflow of foreign direct investment, including capital and credit. Dynamic consumption continues to rely on favorable labor market conditions, with near record-low employment rates and personal income growing strongly. Consumer confidence, despite receding recently, is still on the optimistic side while the household debt to income ratio is stable. However, there are significant changes in composition, with banking debt overriding other credit suppliers. The available data suggests that such dynamism might be concentrating in middle- to upper-income households. And I say “suggests”, because neither us nor the industry supervisors have the whole picture of overall household borrowing. In a dynamic financial system, with many important non-bank lenders such as ours, we cannot afford to go on without a consolidated registry of debtors. Thus, I would like to reiterate, as has the Financial Stability Board (FSB), that it is crucial to push forward the bill that will improve the current system for sharing credit information. Both headline inflation and its core indicator CPIEFE, that is, the CPI excluding foodstuffs and energy, have remained near 1 percent annually.

The challenge will be to lead our economy on the path that will allow it to adjust at the lowest possible cost. The improvements we have made to our scheme of economic and financial policies in the past several decades are a precious asset for the task. Certainly our current position is very good compared with that of other emerging economies. Not every country took advantage of the great external conditions we faced in recent years  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  and some may have allowed the creation of vulnerabilities, which will become more clearly evident when facing the changes that are approaching. We all wish dynamic, sustainable development for the Chilean economy, in order to enhance the country’s welfare. Our contribution as a Central Bank is to keep inflation low and stable. Also, to contribute, from our policy maker’s position, to identify and address the risks that may affect the normal functioning of the financial system. Thank you. Figure 1 GDP and final demand (annual change, percent) 15  15  10  10  5  5  0  0  -5  -5  -10  -10 04  05  06  GDP  07  08  09  10  GDP minus natural resources  11  12  13  Final demand  Source: Central Bank of Chile.
An economist 3 in Norges Bank has found, using a stylised model, that in order to minimise restructuring costs over time, petroleum revenue spending should be limited in such a way that a constant share of imports can be financed by petroleum revenues for an indefinite period. Furthermore, he found that spending one per cent of total petroleum wealth per year would achieve this. Petroleum wealth comprises here both financial wealth accumulated in the petroleum fund and the value of oil and gas under the seabed. The rule implies that petroleum revenue spending would not affect the real exchange rate. This work focused on minimising restructuring costs, and did not analyse the issue on the basis of a more general welfare function. Moreover, the flexibility of the economy to adapt to a shifting economic environment may change over time. Increased flexibility and efficiency in labour, capital and goods markets may reduce the need to take restructuring costs into consideration. I will come back to our current fiscal rule for petroleum revenue spending shortly. The need for some sort of rule in fiscal policy aimed at restraining petroleum revenue spending should become clear when we look at our experience over the last 30 to 40 years. The government began at an early stage to budget on the basis of future strong growth in petroleum revenues. The result was that we spent a large share of our petroleum income in the 1970s and 1980s. Welfare schemes were expanded significantly.

The cost level in the Norwegian economy, compared with that of our trading partners, rose substantially with the beginning of the oil age. The level has fluctuated somewhat since then, without a clear tendency to become higher or lower, and has, over time, been adapted to a steady phasing-in of petroleum revenues into the mainland economy. When we reach a point in the future when the share of imports that can be financed by petroleum revenues declines, the relative cost level will have to be reduced. The real exchange rate may have to be brought back to around the level prevailing at the end of the 1960s, prior to Norway’s emergence as an oil nation. This depreciation can be achieved either by lower price and wage inflation in Norway than in other countries or by a nominal depreciation of the krone. The latter would be the least painful channel, and with a flexible exchange rate it is also the most likely. Final remarks To sum up, increased globalisation and the ensuing terms of trade improvements have exposed the Norwegian economy to a significant upward income shock. This has amplified the domestic upswing. So far, however, strong growth impulses have not led to major imbalances in the labour market or strong upward wage and price pressures. This may be seen as an indication that our fiscal and monetary policy guidelines have been quite successful so far in shielding the Norwegian economy from excessive fluctuations.