samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
What is different between the macroprudential regime we now have and the past is that the FPC will be steering and, once the legislation is complete, Recommending and sometimes Directing the microregulators to take action. That is a major change in the UK’s regime. And it will occasionally mean Taking Away The Punchbowl, leaning against excess. No set of static regulatory requirements will suffice for all seasons. The FPC will be ready to alter regulatory requirements dynamically, so far as the constraints of EU legislation are consistent with actions to preserve stability.1 Conclusion The new Social Contract for banking insists on resolvability and on the health of the system as a whole. In doing so, the goal is to move towards a financial system that is able to keep lending even during dark times. Rapid payout from deposit insurance; liquidity provision against wider collateral; constraints on shadow banking to limit regulatory arbitrage; simplification of SIFIs’ internal structures and practices to aid resolvability; powers for resolution agencies to reconstruct the capital structure of a distressed bank or dealer, to avoid the disorder of orthodox liquidation; a capital surcharge for SIFIs; the FPC temporarily raising capital or liquidity requirements in the face of stability-threatening exuberance – these will all be parts of the new Contract. It is unfinished business, but the shape should be clear by the time of the G20 Heads of Government Summit in November. 1  See Tucker P M W, “Macroprudential policy: building financial stability institutions”, April 2011.

They increase transparency around financial stability policy, and are instructive for what lies ahead. It will have been no surprise that the Committee regards the current economic and financial environment as presenting very real risks to stability, with the euro area’s problems foremost amongst them. The Committee decided to advise the FSA to find out more about the banking system’s exposures, to disclose more, and to get the banks themselves to disclose more. As part of that, FSA will be looking more closely at banks’ forbearance policies and practices. That is not just about internal systems and controls, important though they are. It is, centrally, about forming judgments on the adequacy of provisions. As such it is a step towards supervisors satisfying themselves about the broad robustness of bank’s asset valuations and risk weightings – a vital element of assessing capital adequacy. Crucially, beyond that, the Committee asked the regulators to ensure that, in the quarters ahead, banks should build their capital resources by retaining more than usual of their profits when profits are buoyant. Although the FPC does not yet have statutory powers, this was a sizable step away from the role played by the Bank over the past decade or so. It is not a sermon. It is a plan. To give it teeth, the Committee considered whether or not to set quantitative limits on distributions and/or qualitative guidance on what should be treated as “buoyant” profits.
Muhammad bin Ibrahim: ASEAN financial integration, collaboration with Myanmar and other challenges for Malaysia Speech by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Maybank Myanmar Grand Opening, Yangon, Myanmar, 2 October 2015. *  *  *  A very good evening, it is an auspicious occasion. Congratulations to Maybank on the opening of its branch in Yangon, Myanmar. I am very confident that the launching of this first branch marks the beginning of a productive, innovative and meaningful journey for Maybank in contributing to the economic transformation of Myanmar and in particular the development of its financial sector. I am confident that this branch will be the first of many to come. My remarks today will touch on three subjects: Firstly, the importance of ASEAN financial integration; secondly, the close and long-standing friendship between Myanmar and Malaysia; and the role of financial institution as a responsible corporate citizen. ASEAN: Story of the future that begins today Members of ASEAN have adopted an ambitious, unique and comprehensive vision for an economically and financially integrated region. I term it as unique since we are embarking on this process in a phased and gradual manner. Each member country is given the flexibility to progress towards integration based on its state of readiness. It is an inclusive approach and a long term strategic plan to unlock the growth potential of our region in the coming decades. The case for integration is self-evident.

The causes of this downturn are very different from those of most recent recessions and, as I have just described, the policy response on this occasion has been much quicker and more decisive. There is also a third factor that needs to be borne in mind when drawing lessons from history. This is the first recession in the UK for nearly 20 years. The structure of our economy has changed significantly since the early 1990s, and even more so since the early 1980s and 1970s. The UK economy has undergone extensive reforms and deregulation, and businesses have been transformed by the implementation of new technology and the effects of globalisation. It is hard to quantify precisely the various ways in which the structure of the economy has changed. The appropriate data are not always available and it may be a long time until the effects are discernible in aggregate economic statistics. Importantly, the significance of some of these structural reforms may not be fully apparent until the economy is subjected to a substantial shock. For example, one consequence of globalisation is that supply chains around the world are far more integrated. This is likely to have played an important role in the speed and synchronisation of the world downturn, as the effects of falling demand in a few countries were translated into lower orders and production in many in a matter of weeks. That increased integration is also likely to affect the speed and nature of the recovery.
Monetary discipline Unlike a fixed rate regime in which a national government can only issue currency if it can provide the backing (such as gold reserves), a floating rate regime allows national authorities to issue currency freely to suit their domestic needs. As we know, national central banks play a crucial role in controlling or influencing the supply of money. By changing interest rates or the price of money, central banks indirectly influence the expansion of credit and thus money  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  supply. Good monetary discipline is clearly needed to ensure that money or credit expansion does not become out of control. The initial experience in the US with the fiat money regime was not at all successful or pleasant. There was runaway inflation, rising from 5.8% in 1970 to 11.2% in 1979, and, as a result, Paul Volcker of the Fed had to introduce drastic measures to combat inflation by pushing interest rates to as high as 19%. It is now widely accepted that the breakdown of monetary discipline will lead to financial chaos with huge shocks to macroeconomic and financial stability. After the recent Global Financial Crisis, we have come to realise how important it is to maintain the appropriate monetary discipline. It has been argued by many economists that one of the contributing factors leading to the Crisis was that the US policy interest rate was set too low for a prolonged period, which further fuelled credit growth and the housing bubble in the US.

This is an important wake-up call for the financial market, and market participants are spending a lot more efforts on the transition issues, with the support of ISDA and other industry bodies. 3. But, with this growing momentum, are we all geared up? I would reply with a simple ‘no’. Clearly, much more remains to be done. Transition: A challenging process even for the deep USD market 4. Among all the IBORs, USD LIBOR is the most widely used benchmark in the global market. And the US authorities have been proactively engaging with the industry in promoting the use of Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) as an alternative. 5. Since the launch of SOFR in April 2018, the trading volume of interest rate derivatives (IRD) referencing SOFR has been growing, but it remains relatively small. According to ISDA’s Interest Rate Benchmarks Review, the total traded notional volumes of IRD referencing SOFR was $ billion in Q1 2019. This was less than 0.1% of those referencing USD LIBOR, which totalled $ trillion. 6. So, even for the USD market, which is the deepest and most liquid market in the world, the build-up of transactions based on an alternative risk-free rate could take some time. For other IBORs, this could be an even longer and more challenging process. Transition: A multi-dimension challenge Wide-ranging impact arising from the transition 7. As many speakers have pointed out, transitioning to alternative reference rates is a complex multi-dimension task.
Otmar Issing: Globalisation, EMU and the euro Speech by Mr Otmar Issing, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the 34th Economic Conference 2006 on “Globalization: Opportunities and Challenges for the World, Europe and Austria”, Vienna, 22 May 2006. References to the speech can be found on the website of the European Central Bank. *  *  *  Introduction Let me first extend a warm thank to the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) for inviting me here today to share a few thoughts on globalisation and the role played by the euro and the European and Economic Monetary Union (EMU). In the last decades, Austria hosted a number of distinguished economists, such as Carl Menger, Friedrich von Wieser, Ludwig von Mises, Joseph Schumpeter, Friedrich von Hayek, who shaped the economic thought worldwide. In the context of this conference, it is useful to mention the “creative destruction” term, coined by Joseph Schumpeter in 1942 at Harvard after his migration to the United States. Schumpeter argued that the process of industrial mutation, which is intrinsic to capitalism, “revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.” 1 No doubt globalisation has a big “destruction” potential. To benefit from the global changes, countries need to be flexible and quick enough at adopting and spreading new technologies, risking in moving into new areas with big market opportunities in the future, which then translates in new jobs and higher economic growth.

A new central bank by the name of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas or BSP was set up under the patronage of the World Bank and the Export-Import Bank of Japan 8 . Arrangements were made to repay the liabilities of the old central bank in 25 years 9 . The issue at hand is how the oncoming signs of insolvency of CBP were not noticed by its auditors. The growing distress of CBP due to the wrong policy of defending the exchange rate at the expense of losing foreign reserves, accumulation of losses in CBP, rising foreign borrowings through unsustainable swaps and the depletion of net-worth of CBP were obvious to the auditors as early as 1985. It was simply the sad story of one mistake leading to another mistake and that mistake leading to a further mistake and so on. Once a policy making body gets entangled in an “enmeshed policy paradox” of this nature, it is impossible to escape the paradox without outside support. Had the first mistake, that is, defending the exchange rate at the cost of losing the reserves, were not committed, CBP would not have driven itself to insolvency. But, the auditors who were confined only to a compliance audit did not read the signs of impending risk build-up in CBP. Had the central bank management and the legislators been alerted at that time, CBP could have been saved from liquidation.
The second pillar of the ECB's strategy ensures that the interplay between supply and demand in the real economy is sufficiently taken into consideration when evaluating the risks to price stability. It comprises a variety of predominantly non-monetary factors, which are relevant for future price developments. Some of the factors of the second pillar can be especially relevant in the short term, for example the development of oil prices. For monetary policy decisions, it is important to know whether, for example, shocks originate from the supply side or from the demand side of the economy, whether they exert a temporary or permanent influence on prices, or whether they result from a domestic or an external source. As we have experienced in the past few months, an oil price shock, which is an external shock from the supply side, can exert a significant direct influence on consumer prices. In such a situation, the central bank has to assess whether this direct effect will remain temporary or whether it will translate into a more permanent impact on prices. This depends to a large extent on the ability of central banks to keep inflation expectations low. Other indicators of the second pillar, for example the development of labour costs, have a more medium-term content. Under the second pillar of the strategy, the production of macroeconomic projections for real GDP growth and inflation enables some of the factors considered to be structured and summarised.

The Kijang Emas Scholarship is distinct from the Kijang Scholarship in that the recipients are given the freedom to pursue any field of study at top universities in any country of their choice. The Bank also does not impose any bond on the recipients except that they return, contribute and partake in the development of our nation. To date, 44 high potential talent have been awarded the Kijang Emas Scholarship. The recipients have graduated or are currently pursuing their studies in diverse fields of study including Medicine, Engineering, Law, Economics, Dietetics, Actuarial Science, Accounting, Dentistry, Biochemistry, Genetics, Architecture, Psychology and Geophysics in top universities around the world such as MIT, University of Pennsylvania and the University of Cambridge. Thus far, 11 Kijang Emas scholars have completed their undergraduate studies and have returned to serve the nation, while another seven scholars are expected to complete their studies in the next six months. For the 2015 Kijang Emas Scholarship, we received a total of 212 applications from top SPM students scoring straight A+ for their 2014 SPM. From this, the Bank shortlisted the top 24 students based on their SPM results and also on their level of involvement in co-curricular and sports activities. The students then underwent a rigorous evaluation process under the Bank’s “Kijang Academy” which assessed their technical and leadership competencies, as well as their values. We are pleased to award four outstanding students the Kijang Emas Scholarship this year. Having just completed their SPM, they will be enrolled into the respective pre-university programmes.
However, no thorough analysis has been made of whether house prices and indebtedness entail problems or have any significance for future inflation and resource utilisation. At the same time, widespread research points to the policy rate being an unsuitable instrument for this, as it has small effects on house prices, but sizable effects on production, jobs and unemployment.   Recently, monetary policy appears to have been aimed at slowing down growth in GDP, and thus the recovery from what is called the Great Recession. This is because the motivation given for the repo rate raises has been that growth in the  BIS Review 158/2010  1    Monetary policy also appears to have strived, through references to the abnormally low repo rate, to normalise the level of the repo rate. This is despite the fact that the repo rate should not be a target variable for monetary policy, but merely an instrument without any inherent value.   The repo rate path in the main scenario is now far above market expectations, the market repo rate path according to implied forward rates. 1 The intended monetary policy – the Riksbank’s repo rate path – is thus much tighter than the actual monetary policy – the market repo rate path. The fact that the market repo rate path differs from the Riksbank’s repo rate path means that the intended repo rate path is not credible. The more expansionary actual monetary policy has probably contributed to the strong growth and the recovery.

Inflation targeting is thus much more demanding than a fixed exchange rate regime with regard to the central bank’s analytical work and its ability to communicate its policy. Whether this is something that should be regarded as a disadvantage or not is of course a question of judgement. For the Riksbank, the transition to inflation targeting heralded the start of a fairly comprehensive increase in competence in the field of economics. The number of PhD economists at the Riksbank has risen sharply in recent years and our research in areas related to monetary policy has expanded considerably. Financial stability Let me now move on to the other central component of an efficient payment system. This concerns the stability in the financial system; particularly in the financial institutions that supply payment services, i.e. primarily the banks. Financial stability is currently regarded, parallel to the price stability target, as the main task of a modern central bank. The financial system has essentially three main tasks: converting savings into financing, managing risk and providing efficient channels of payment. Let me give a basic example. A bank receives savings from households which it then lends to other households or to companies that need to invest. Banks are specialists at valuing, monitoring and managing credit risks in the households and companies to which they lend.
Of course, that does not mean you are expected to build a new Romanian state as they did, but you can certainly act as a similar vector of change in the Romanian society, be it in social values, politics, economy or culture. Therefore, no pressure … Now, some of you must surely be wondering what a central banker like me and IT have in common. I could hardly be described as an IT expert, but I am following developments in the sector, not only because they matter in the global economy (explaining a good deal of the productivity wedge between the US and EU starting in the mid-nineties, for instance), but also because the IT&C sector is increasingly relevant for the Romanian economy – its share in GDP is now nearing that of construction and its contribution has become instrumental in building a surplus on the 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  international trade in services. Solid technical skills, good command of foreign languages and certain versatility are assets that continue to attract investment in this sector in Romania. Although infrastructure quality, in general, is not a strongpoint for Romania, communication infrastructure is – we are enjoying some of the best speed for broadband internet connection in the EU if not in the world, not to mention that access is comparatively much cheaper.

This period has included a global financial crisis, a global pandemic, and in the UK the decision to leave the European Union. Monetary policy has had to adapt to this world of larger shocks, in an environment where the trend to sustained lower equilibrium interest rates around the world has made the so-called effective lower bound a very pertinent issue. As a first observation, therefore, the task of monetary policy has moved from being a choice (albeit not an easy one) on a single dimension (the official interest rate) to a more multi-dimensional choice which also involves decisions on which tools to use, and which tools to develop – have “in the box” – for possible future use should the need arise. There are important issues of substance here. Close to the lower bound, the transmission of policy tends to be less effective – not redundant or worthless, but nonetheless less effective. But this does not make monetary policy pointless or unnecessary. There are also important challenges to signalling that follow from this greater element of multidimensionality of decisions. So-called toolbox decisions should not contain signals on preferences for the actual setting of policy. In other words, central banks should develop and maintain a broad range of tools and seek to communicate this in a manner which avoids being interpreted as a signal on immediate or future preferences on policy setting.
The main Swiss investors in Romania are present in significant economic sectors: building materials, energy, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, food industry, tobacco, agriculture and stockbreeding. Over the last years, trade flows with Switzerland exceeded the EUR 250 million threshold for exports and the EUR 400 million threshold for imports. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The situation generated by the CHF appreciation should be approached rationally, rather than emotionally. First and foremost, before coming up with a solution, we should make sure that the situation has stabilised. Frequently, FX markets tend to overreact at the incipient stage of such events. From this standpoint, mention should be made that about 40% of the rise in the CHF/RON exchange rate was already corrected: it started off at 1 CHF = 3.74 RON on 14 January 2015, peaked at 4.58 on 23 January and stood at 4.21 on 9 February 2015. Moreover, given the considerable financial impact, time is necessary for solutions to be formulated so that the additional burden generated by the stronger CHF might be rationally and realistically shared among the parties involved. To sum up, we believe that, before adopting any measures, the following should be analysed: the actual situation of CHF-denominated loans in Romania, the current economic environment, the approach to the effects generated by the stronger CHF in other countries in the region, as well as the viability of the solutions recommended. II.

Based on the examinations and assessments it undertakes, the NBR ascertains to what extent the management framework, the strategies, processes and mechanisms implemented by a credit institution ensure the proper management of risks given the particular risk profile of the credit institution. Thus, the supervision carried out follows the risk-based approach rather than the compliance-based one. In exercising its supervisory task, the NBR issues recommendations, adopts measures and imposes sanctions on the credit institutions themselves or on their executive and governing bodies in order to ensure that the proper remedial measures are adopted and compliance with the regulations in force is restored. D.  Implementation of recommendations of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) on lending in foreign currencies  At EU level, the first recommendations on lending in foreign currencies were issued by the ESRB in 2011 (with implementation deadline in December 2012). The recommendations were not aimed at banning foreign currency-denominated loans by way of administrative measures, but at setting forth measures that would ensure borrowers have the capacity to service their debt even in the context of adverse developments. With some of these recommendations already regulated, the NBR supplemented the national legislation with the required provisions. Following up on the action steps of the Romanian authorities, the ESRB concluded that the aforementioned recommendation had been fully implemented by Romania.