samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But normal interest rates appear to be lower than previously thought. It is therefore more likely that we touch the lower bound for the repo rate in times of economic recessions, and we may then again need to use bond purchases as a complement in monetary policy. References Alsterlind Jan, Henrik Erikson, Maria Sandström and David Vestin (2015), “How can government bond purchases make monetary policy more expansionary?”, Economic Commentaries No. 12, Sveriges Riksbank Altavilla, Carlo, Giacomo Carboni and Roberto Motto (2015), “Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area”, ECB Working Paper Series No 1864, European Central Bank 9 [16]  Archer, David and Paul Moser-Boehm (2013), “Central bank finances”, BIS Papers No 71, Bank for International Settlement Bernanke, Ben (2016), “Should the Fed keep its balance sheet large?”, Brookings, 2 september Blinder, Alan, Michael Ehrmann, Jakob de Haan and David-Jan Jansen (2017), “Necessity as the mother of invention: monetary policy after the crisis”, Economic Policy 32, 707-755 Costancio, Vitor (2017), “The future of monetary policy frameworks”, speech, 25 May, European Central Bank De Rezende, Rafael B., David Kjellberg and Oskar Tysklind (2015), “Effects of the Riksbank's government bond purchases on financial prices”, Economic Commentaries No. 13, Sveriges Riksbank.

The changes happening in the technologies around money will have an impact on the business model of the retail banking system that has deposit accounts at its core and that has hitherto dominated the payment and settlement machinery. It is certainly not our job to protect or preserve any particular business model for the provision of financial services. But the banking system, operating within the framework of the Bank of England monetary policy to govern the unit of account and under the regulation and supervision of the Bank and the FCA, is at the centre of the creation and of the use of the majority of our money as a means of payment and as a store of value. 16  Over 90% of customers described themselves as satisfied with their bank according to a survey by GfK NOP commissioned by the Competition and Markets Authority for its investigation into the personal current account sector. 17 The unit is a joint initiative by the PRA and FCA to provide information and support for those thinking of setting up a new bank in the UK: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/prudential-regulation/new-bank-start-up-unit 11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  11  Given this role of the banking system in our economy, we have to ensure that the banks and the system as a whole are robust and have the resilience to withstand very severe risks. Our framework of regulation and our annual stress test of the banking system is designed to give this assurance.
It aims to eliminate unnecessary regulatory burdens, increase competition and improve financial infrastructure as well as elevate financial literacy with sufficient consumer protection. The payment system is also being improved. The Imaged Cheque Clearing and Archive System or the ICAS, which allows physical cheques to be replaced by images in exchanges between commercial bank, is expected to be implemented within this year for the Bangkok and vicinity area and for the whole Kingdom at a later stage. This more efficient payment infrastructure will eventually make Thailand a “one-day cheque clearing country”, which is a way to reduce financial cost of the private sector. Ladies and gentlemen, all parties can help improving the country’s productivity and let me now end my talk by stressing that our good economic fundamental and diversity make this country resilient to negative shocks. Returning to normalcy is one resilient feature but  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  moving the country forward in a global competitive arena will be ever more a challenging task. A strong will alone is not enough, all parties, including Thai and foreign, public or private entity alike, must communicate, coordinate and take action in unity. I believe that with everyone’s efforts, we can prevail with prosperity for all. Thank you. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Unfortunately, there are individuals who try to take advantage of owners of new businesses by providing them with poor advice or overcharging them for credit. Researching the backgrounds of these service providers and lenders is difficult and time intensive, leaving small business owners too often uncertain as to who to deal with. In some cases, this uncertainty can discourage a business owner from seeking assistance. I believe that we need a better system of certification for organizations that work with small businesses. The certification will assure a business owner that the organization has been properly vetted and has the requisite skills to assist the owner. This not only provides assurances to business owners, but saves them the time and resources required to do this due diligence on their own. Finally, in addition to certification, it would be helpful to have consistent standards and transparency requirements for organizations that lend to small businesses. Such standards and requirements exist for lending to households, and I believe the same justification exists to extend these requirements to small businesses. As a result, small business owners would have greater confidence that they fully understand the terms and conditions of their loan. This, in conjunction with the access to more financial information and education, will help small business owners make better decisions about their use of credit. Conclusion In summary, economic conditions in the Bronx are improving but more progress is necessary.
7  This was due, in part, to the fact that the effective federal funds rate was a volume-weighted mean. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently changed the calculation of the effective federal funds rate from a weighted-average mean to a weighted-average median to make it more robust. In addition, it started publishing a broader measure of bank funding costs, the overnight bank funding rate. 8  The list of counterparties can be found at this link: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/expanded_ counterparties. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  been one of our stated purposes since the Federal Reserve Act became law more than a century ago. Until a few months ago, many conversations about the long-run framework for monetary policy implementation considered at least two options; on the one hand, we had the old system based on reserve scarcity inducing competition for reserves, and, on the other hand, we had a theory about how competition in a range of money markets would pull market rates up in line with the interest rates administered by the Federal Reserve. The old system certainly had flaws, many of which were exposed during the crisis, but it had worked reasonably well. And a system that works reasonably well is often more appealing than one that exists only in theory. The successful liftoff has brought theory into practice, and the results have been good so far.

But, if you look closely, you’d see that excess reserves actually  1  An extended effort to evaluate potential long-run monetary policy implementation frameworks was announced in the July 2015 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. This effort was previously discussed at the dinner address for the Bank of England-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Conference on Money Markets and Monetary Policy Implementation. 2  Congress had agreed to give the Federal Reserve the authority to pay interest on reserves in 2006, but this authority was to take effect on 2011. The effective date of the authority was moved forward to October 1, 2008, with the passage of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008. 3  The FOMC published its Policy Normalization Principles and Plans on September 16, 2014. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  started expanding earlier and control of the federal funds rate deteriorated. 4 So what happened? In reviewing the events of the second half of 2007 and most of 2008, it is clear that the Federal Reserve faced a tension between the need to provide liquidity to ease money market strains and the need to keep control of the interest rate target within its earlier framework. Demand for dollar liquidity increased in many money markets and some of that demand came from banks headquartered outside of the United States. A by-product of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to provide liquidity to the financial system is that the supply of reserves, which can only be held by banks, increased.
Such a spiral in Spain would only exacerbate the pernicious effects of the current shock, since, in the present context, a simultaneous rise in prices and wages would erode our external competitiveness vis-à-vis other euro area countries and would aggravate the already harmful effects of the current shock on competitiveness, employment and economic growth. Further, were it to spread across the euro areas as a whole, such a feedback loop would require a more aggressive normalisation of the ECB’s monetary policy to ensure compliance with our price stability mandate. In my view, an incomes agreement, like the one I have been advocating since October, is warranted in order to ward off these scenarios. But what shape should this cost-sharing agreement take? In my view, this burden-sharing should be set out in an agreement forged under the framework of social dialogue (which we have termed an “incomes agreement between firms and workers”). However, I believe it should be defined based on certain general principles. I will specifically mention five that I feel are particularly important. First, the costs must be shared among all agents. In an extreme scenario in which firms attempt to keep their unit profits intact, a reduction in household purchasing power would ultimately translate into lower demand for firms’ products. At the other extreme, maintaining workers’ full purchasing power would pose a threat to firms’ capacity to generate sufficient funds to conduct their investments and, ultimately, would jeopardise their survival, to the detriment of employment and welfare.

Sweden remains a ‘pre-in’; we will have to consider euro adoption again at some point in the future. Therefore the evolution and enlargement of the euro area concerns us. Secondly, Sweden is probably one of the EU nations that will benefit most from the enlargement of the European Union. Our economy is one of the EU’s most integrated with acceding countries, with surging East-West trade and FDI. Also, should Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania adopt the euro, we would be directly affected because Swedish banks own most of the Baltic banking system. I would therefore like to share some reflections with you on two subjects of relevance to euro area enlargement: the risks associated with ERM II membership and long-term frameworks for fiscal policy. However, before doing this let me stress two things: First, the long-term advantages of euro area enlargement are evident. I believe the advantages would be roughly the same for acceding countries as they would be for Sweden: integration of trade and capital markets stimulates growth for both the euro adopter and the euro area. In the case of acceding countries, there are probably additional advantages of monetary integration; it gives added stability after the difficult years of transition and is important for their underdeveloped financial sectors. So the issue is not really euro area enlargement as such, but rather its timing and preconditions. Second, from the perspective of the euro area itself it is hard to see how acceding countries could pose any major risks to price stability.
2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The banking industry should step up its effort to counter these incidences, including the use of ink staining technology that renders the cash stolen to be worthless. This technology has been implemented successfully in countries such as the Netherlands, South Africa and Belgium with good results. Attempted robberies would cause the notes in the ATMs to be stained, rendering it valueless. Stained banknotes should not be accepted by retailers for payments and by the banks as deposits. This will serve as deterrent, sending a strong message to would be robbers. We had recently issued a guideline on the use of Ink Staining Technology for the industry. With this issuance, the banking industry should be ready to implement this initiative. Conclusion Let me conclude my speech by congratulating MEPS for the successful launch of this new initiative. MEPS’ can play an important role as the catalyst for the development and deployment of the ATM network. We hope that MEPS will also continue to collaborate and coordinate the pooling of resources for the banking industry. The banking institutions should give MEPS their full support as well. It now gives me great pleasure in officiating the launch of MEPS ATM initiative. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

This is perhaps an early signal that a prolonged period of erosion in global manufacturing activity and investment will eventually have some knock-on effects on services. The bottom line: consumption and services will provide some buffer to global growth but will not be entirely immune to persistent weakness in trade and corporate investment. SINGAPORE ECONOMY The Singapore economy is being clearly affected by the global slowdown in manufacturing, trade, and investment. The economy grew by 1.2% in Q1 2019, compared to 3.1% for full-year 2018. Recent indicators suggest that growth in Q2 could be lower than in Q1. Non-oil domestic exports have contracted by 9.3% since the beginning of this year. The manufacturing sector is in a downturn. GDP growth for the year as a whole is likely to be weaker than earlier envisaged. MTI and MAS are reviewing the 1.5-2.5% forecast range for this year’s GDP growth. Growth in the first half of the year is looking to be quite weak, particularly in the trade-related sectors. Currently, the full-year forecast is premised on the economy stabilising in the third quarter of 2019, with a modest pickup thereafter. But the strength of this pick-up, given the softer external environment and ongoing trade conflict, is unlikely to offset the weakness in the first half. And downside risks have clearly increased. As with the global economy, it is important to look beyond the headline growth numbers and assess the composition of growth in the domestic economy.
The blue bars in Chart 3 plot what firms expect to happen to their own output and employment in that case. And, over time, the impact of that nervousness has started to come through in the official data. It didn’t to begin with, in the first year or so after the referendum. The series is quite volatile, and prone to revision, so one should be careful not to over-interpret shorter-term movements. But on current estimates, business investment was 3% higher at the end of 2017 than in mid-2016. Chart 1: Businesses invest less when  Chart 2: Brexit is an important source of risk for  uncertainty is high  UK businesses  Sources: ONS, Bloomberg Finance L.P., CBI, Consensus Economics, Dow Jones Factiva, Eikon from Refinitiv, GfK (research on behalf of the European Commission) and Bank calculations. Growth in business investment is one quarter ahead. Sources: Decision Maker Panel and Bank calculations. 1  See Bloom et al (2019) for more information on the Decision Maker Panel. 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  2  Chart 3: Firms say output and employment  Chart 4: Investment has been weaker than in  would fall in a no-deal, no-transition Brexit  previous expansions  Sources: Bank of England and Bank calculations. See Bank of England (2018, 2019). Sources: ONS and Bank calculations.

This worked fine during the Great Moderation, but unfortunately with the collapse of Lehman Brothers another old truism suddenly came to life: “markets function the worst when you need them the most”. Against this background, it is quite embarrassing that so few could see the crisis coming. From a regulatory point of view, all the ingredients were there, or rather they were lacking. And this is the first point I want to make – the regulatory framework was unsatisfactory and becoming more so the more complex the financial system became. Then, turning to my second point, which is: The costs of financial crises are huge. This is true in general, but especially so for the recent one. For example, according to a recent study by  1  2  The figure SEK 17,000 =1,000,000*50%*3,4%, where 3,4% is the implied minimum core Tier 1 capital requirement under Basel I. The risk-weight for mortgages was 50% during this period. Under Basel II the implied minimum core Tier 1 capital requirement fell from 3,4% to 2% of risk-weighted assets, and was 2% in 2011–2012 when banks’ internal average risk weights for mortgages was 6%. SEK 1,200 SEK = 1,000,000*6%*2%. For more information see Sveriges Riksbank (2013) Financial Stability Report 2013:2, November, pp 21–24. BIS central bankers’ speeches  IMF economists, in a sample of countries representing just over 50% of world GDP, the total amount of government recapitalisation, asset purchases and guarantees during the period 2007–2011 amounted to nearly $ trillion.
The active participation of the conference is provided and encouraged through panel session on “Payments challenges in an integrating world”, in which panelists from payment institutions and payment systems will be exchanging thoughts and ideas. Last but not least is the expected interactive participation in the working groups scheduled for the last day of the event. I look forward to the discussions and wish all the delegates an enjoyable and rewarding conference, as inspiring as its location – the beautiful city of Ohrid and the Ohrid Lake which I hope you will be able to enjoy too in the following Conference days. Thank you! 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

Moreover, tackling climate-related and environmental risks is one of the ECB's key supervisory priorities for 2023-25. Supervisors have set institution-specific remediation timelines for achieving full alignment with supervisory expectations by the end of 2024 and will follow up on the deficiencies identified in stress tests and thematic reviews performed in 2022. The investigation phase of the digital euro project is on track. In the autumn, we expect to decide on the next project phase, in which the appropriate technical solutions and business arrangements necessary to provide a digital euro would be developed and tested. While a digital euro would focus first on the domestic retail payments market in Europe, we are already discussing at the international level the potential of crosscurrency and cross-border payments made in retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). There is agreement that CBDC should eventually contribute to improving cross-border payments. As global work on CBDC accelerates, international cooperation in this field will become even more important. 4/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
The favourable liquidity situation facilitated the rapid transmission of the key interest rate cut to the interbank and the primary market, hence allowing for the reflection of this cut in other interest rates in the economy as well. The Bank of Albania considers that the inflationary pressures remain well contained all through the time frame of the monetary policy effect: the effect of supply-side factors is expected to be offset by the downward pressures arising from the performance of demand in economy. The projections for inflation and inflationary expectations remain well-anchored around the Bank of Albania’s target. Therefore, the central bank considers that monetary conditions in economy are adequate to warrant the safeguard of price stability in the medium-run and to boost economic development further. The Bank of Albania will, in response to actual and expected economic and monetary developments, continue to pursue a prudent monetary policy, thus providing the required monetary conditions for achieving the inflation target and safeguarding macroeconomic stability. 4  BIS Review 170/2010

Banks are important Banks are of fundamental importance to the national economy; without them, households and businesses would struggle to make payments. Virtually all payments today depend on various services provided by banks. Without banks, households and firms would also find it difficult to borrow and manage their financial risks. Traditional theory often talks about the three key functions of banks: first, to intermediate payments; second, to allocate credit in the economy, thereby transforming liquid deposits into illiquid loans; and third, to facilitate risk management by households and firms. A well-functioning banking system is therefore a key driver of economic growth. Since the liberalisation of the financial markets in the 1980s, the financial sector has also become more efficient and this has contributed to increasing welfare in many countries, not least in Sweden. At the same time, the risks have increased as the financial sector has grown.3 The unease we have seen during the spring emphasises what I noted earlier, that monetary policy and financial stability are interdependent. I will return to monetary policy shortly, but given the developments during the spring, it is natural to start with the bank problems we have seen and what they mean. Banking involves risks What happened in the United States and Switzerland in March shows once again that banks' activities pose risks to the whole economy. This is nothing new. The risk of bank runs is well known. Such events have occurred many times in history.