The "leader" – the social partners – can internalise the monetary policy response and take the "follower’s" – Norges Bank’s – response to their actions into account. This approach is most relevant when wage setting is centralised. A number of studies2 have shown that countries with a relatively high degree of centralisation and coordination, such as Norway, can achieve relatively low unemployment. When wage-setting is decentralised, monetary policy will instead influence wage growth via market mechanisms, by stabilising aggregate demand for goods, services and labour. Monetary policy that is flexibly oriented towards low and stable inflation will function well whether wages are set at the central, local or individual level 2 . In the initial period after the introduction of the inflation target in 2001, it appeared that the social partners had not yet internalised the response pattern ensuing from the monetary policy mandate. We are now well into a cyclical phase with very high capacity utilisation and low unemployment. In this situation, there may be a risk that wage growth will again accelerate. On the other hand, the experience gained by the social partners that large pay rises push up interest rates may have the effect of curbing pay increases. In local wage negotiations at enterprise level, competition, the supply of foreign labour and the possibility of outsourcing or relocating activities may dampen the impact. Low and stable inflation should not be taken for granted. Norway’s and other countries’ economic history shows that inflation and inflation expectations can become unhinged.

In comparison with other countries, productivity gains in banks and other service sectors stand out in particular. Examples are automated processes and swifter payments in the financial industry, and improved inventory and management systems in commerce and transport. This reduces production costs. The business sector is quick to adapt and change, and to make use of new technology that is available in an international market. This is probably due to the modernisation in the 1980s and 1990s of the way the economy functions, which resulted in more efficient markets. Although satisfactory current statistics for central government and local government productivity are not available, government agencies have probably also become more efficient. New technology and new organisational structures have certainly provided opportunities to increase efficiency. Third, an ample supply of foreign labour has been an important factor behind output growth. In particular, the supply of foreign labour has increased sharply after EU enlargement in 2004. Improved terms of trade, high productivity growth in the Norwegian business sector and the increase in labour supply have resulted in a favourable environment for the Norwegian economy. Unemployment has declined considerably and is now very low. The labour market is tight. Unemployment has not been as low since the second half of the 1980s, and employment has risen sharply this year. Wage-earners and enterprises have both fared well. Cheap imported goods have resulted in a subdued rise in consumer prices and a substantial increase in wage-earners’ real wages. High export prices have restrained the rise in real labour costs.