Moreover, its effects will be reinforced by tighter financial conditions and possible negative spill-overs to growth in the UK’s major trading partners. In sum, the material slowing in growth that the MPC had identified as a risk associated with the referendum now looks likely to be our central forecast. Using reports from our nationwide network of agents, private survey evidence, and hard data, in the coming weeks we will estimate the extent of the deceleration as we formulate our August projections. 3. Policies in an uncertain world  When uncertainty is high, policymakers should have three objectives. First, conduct a sober, objective assessment of the outlook and the risks to it. Second, develop and communicate a plan to reduce those risks and to seize new opportunities. And third, do no harm, by  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  minimising any possible confusion about the commitment to core macroeconomic policy frameworks themselves. In Tim Geithner’s famous dictum, “plan beats no plan.” And in my experience, a plan that is clearly articulated and transparently executed is best of all. A plan for the UK’s current challenges would include a comprehensive strategy for engaging with the EU and the rest of the world – including clarifying the UK’s future trading arrangements, calibrating its openness to migration, ensuring the continuity of capital flows, and confirming the appropriate regulatory framework for the UK financial system. The impact of concrete progress towards these objectives would be amplified by an overarching, positive and animating narrative for growth in a post-Brexit world.

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