samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I think we’ve done a reasonable job in developing rules and regulations to address the causes of the last crisis, and firms are in the process of building the resilience to withstand those types of shocks. But, cyber adds an element to planning for the next crisis that goes beyond what additional capital and liquidity can provide to the system. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  I recognize that the topic seems daunting, but it has to be addressed soon, if you want to survive and not just comply with regulations. It is an area that will continue to warrant attention across the industry – and will require a level of coordination and collaboration between the public and private sectors to address in a meaningful way. In many respects, I think we are all in this one together. 3. Enhancing coordination and communication  The final area I wanted to highlight is coordination and communication. The theme of enhancing coordination among supervisory and regulatory bodies is an ongoing one that I addressed last year and one that you may hear me speak about again next year. Each year, I do think we make progress, but as increased attention is placed on ensuring the effective implementation of local (or host country) rules and regulations, we need to ensure we don’t lose sight of the need to continue to work effectively across jurisdictions in supervising the largest firms.

But, I’d like to start today by delving a little deeper into an overriding theme that heightens my concerns – and that is the challenge of operating in a “global” business and regulatory environment, while at the same time navigating an increasingly “local” business and regulatory environment. Global vs. local The evolution of financial services over the past several decades has resulted in a truly global financial system. Advances in information technology and data management, as well as the development of robust capital markets, greater competition among financial firms and international trade, among other things, have contributed to a faster, more highly interconnected, and more available financial marketplace. The financial crisis confirmed that what was once a fragmented and siloed system was now truly global: failures in one jurisdiction quickly transmitted disruption to other jurisdictions. During the crisis, we clearly saw the interconnectedness of firms, the complexity of the international financial system, and the global impact of bank failures. Through this experience, we identified gaps and weaknesses, both globally and locally, and supervisors, regulators and lawmakers from around the world all set out to put a system in place to avoid a repeat of one of the most economically devastating periods in our history. There has been substantial effort on the part of global regulatory and supervisory bodies to address the weaknesses identified in the financial crisis.
And market-based measures also indicate a rapid decline in inflation over 2023 and 2024, while the cost of inflation protection remains slightly above 2% at longer horizons (as reflected in the 5yr5yr rate). This is largely due to a positive inflation risk premium which reflects the high uncertainty surrounding inflation dynamics. The third factor that we are closely monitoring is the strength of monetary policy transmission. The ECB’s current rate hiking cycle is unprecedented in terms of its intensity and speed, with one-year-ahead expected real rates into positive territory. We generally assess the impact of our measures based on the historical evidence of previous rate hiking cycles. It can be argued, however, that some of today’s macro-financial conditions differ from those prevailing in previous cycles, especially as a consequence of the long period of expansionary monetary policy that preceded the current episode. In addition, tightening monetary policy as sharply and as swiftly as we have could also have potential nonlinear effects on the economy. One factor that might point to a slower transmission of monetary policy than in the past is related to the debt burden of the non-financial private sector, which has become less sensitive to interest rates hikes.

Ardian Fullani: Overview of Albania’s latest economic and financial developments Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, on the Monetary Policy Decision-Making of the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council, Tirana, 30 January 2013. *  *  *  Today, on 30 January 2013, the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council reviewed and approved the biannual Monetary Policy Statement. Based on the latest monetary and economic developments in Albania, and following the discussions on their future outlook, the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council decided to lower the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. After this decision, the one-week repurchase agreement rate drops to new record-low level of 3.75%. The Supervisory Council deems that further easing of monetary conditions will help in meeting the inflation target in the medium term. Let me now proceed with an overview of economic and monetary developments, and key issues discussed at today’s meeting. * * * The Albanian economy improved slightly in the seconds half of 2012. This performance was driven by a fuller reflection of monetary stimulus and improved external economic and financial environment. However, the economic activity remains below potential and the growth resources appear unstable. Production growth is not reflected in decreasing the overall uncertainties, which contain private investments and consumption, and lead to downward credit demand and supply. The banking system has sound and liquid balance sheets but it remains highly prudent in terms of financing long-term investments. These tendencies will condition the economic developments over the period ahead.
Benoît Cœuré: Interview with France Info TV Interview with Mr Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, and France Info TV, conducted by Mr Jean-Paul Chapel on 9 November 2017. * * *  Global indebtedness is at record levels. Government debt in the rich countries stands at over 100% of GDP. Isn’t that sowing the seeds for the next global crisis? It’s a matter that calls for attention, but I don’t think it will be the cause of the next financial crisis. What will cause it then? I don’t know. But at the ECB we are more concerned about the rapid rise in private debt. Corporate debt? Yes, corporate debt, and shadow banking – those loans that are not made by banks. Dark banks... Shadow banks. They are insufficiently regulated. Also, there’s a widespread temptation to relax banking regulations, at a time when, as you say, interest rates are very low. All that is a source of risk. Government debt is a concern, but it doesn’t threaten to trigger a financial crisis. When the next crisis hits Europe we want to be sure that Member States, governments, have budgetary firepower. Today, that power is very limited or even non-existent. That’s why countries have to deleverage. But in the meantime, you, the central banks, the European Central Bank and other banks, with low interest rates, ample liquidity, you are inflating these bubbles… It’s true that the low rates can create financial stability risks; we’re aware of that.

We try to do our work as best as we can, which is to ensure price stability in the euro area. And I don’t think we have to be negative 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  about Europe. Not everything is going very well. There are plenty of things which don’t work well and which need to be improved. But what would we say to the millions of eastern Europeans who have returned to prosperity thanks to Europe, if Europe didn’t exist today? What would we say to the millions of French people who work in companies which are exporting to Europe? And when you travel round the world, Europe is admired. Why? Because it is a prosperous region, but also because it is a place of security, and of social protection. Europe is one of the few places in the world where, if you go to hospital, you won’t be asked for your credit card. That’s what we need to safeguard, but we need to safeguard it together, as Europeans. Emmanuel Macron wants a euro area budget and greater solidarity between the Member States. Will that be achieved soon? It’s necessary because the Member States have to regain budgetary firepower. It would not be reasonable to expect the European Central Bank to sort out all of Europe’s economic problems indefinitely. Economic capacity and budgetary capacity have to be recreated. But that won’t happen overnight; French ideas won’t be imposed on Europe by magic, it will be a long discussion.
More generally we are conscious that everything we do affects the trust and confidence in the Bank and by extension the financial system. Monetary and macroprudential policy The interaction between macroprudential and monetary policy is central to the Bank’s success in achieving its dual objectives of monetary and financial stability. The case for discharging these responsibilities in a coordinated way is very strong. I am delighted that Ben Broadbent has today been appointed as the next Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy. In that role, he will be central to co-ordinating these functions and his experience in academia, financial markets, and as an external Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, makes him extremely well qualified to do so. The transmission channels of monetary and prudential policy overlap, particularly in their impact on banks’ balance sheets and credit supply and demand – and hence the wider economy.8 Monetary policy affects the resilience of the financial system, and macroprudential policy tools that affect leverage influence credit growth and the wider economy. In turn, financial stability is a pre-requisite for monetary stability – for example systemic banking crises are likely to be deflationary. In reducing the frequency and severity of financial crises, macroprudential policy therefore helps to preserve the role of money as a store of value.9 While price and financial stability are clearly connected, achieving both can be difficult.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Review of the Swiss economy in 2008 and the outlook for 2009 Speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the General Meeting of Shareholders of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 17 April 2009. *  *  *  Mr President of the Bank Council Dear Shareholders Dear Guests The financial crisis, which first emerged in August 2007, continued to spread during 2008. From mid-September on, the situation deteriorated sharply. Growing uncertainty about the stability of the financial system gradually paralysed the money market. Most industrialised countries implemented relief packages for banks with the aim of improving their refinancing conditions, cleaning up their balance sheets or strengthening their capital base. In fact, the crisis led to an unprecedented level of government intervention. Far-reaching guarantees were granted, major corporations were put under state control, and a substantial amount of risk was transferred from the private to the public sector. The difficulty of implementing our monetary policy The waning ability of the financial markets to function properly posed problems for the implementation of our monetary policy. The prevalent mood of uncertainty created a strong appetite for liquidity, and yet the seizing-up of the interbank market hampered the supply in Swiss francs. In view of these two factors, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had to resort to some exceptional measures. From the start, the uncertainty engendered by the financial crisis led to a surge in demand for liquidity by both banks and the public in Switzerland.
Currency reserves consist primarily of freely disposable foreign exchange reserves and of gold holdings. In retrospect, we have to remember that our freely disposable foreign exchange reserves have undergone a substantial increase, particularly after the transition to freely floating exchange rates a quarter of a century ago. At the beginning of the nineties, we therefore decided to limit future expansion to the extent of nominal economic growth. By international standards, we thus have a comfortable level of reserves. As regards gold holdings, it must be decided what proportion will still be required for monetary policy purposes in future or, conversely, what proportion should become available for other public uses. This is basically a question of how an important part of our national wealth is to be usefully employed. Both fundamental considerations and a comparison with other countries may be helpful. However, in the final analysis there is a discretionary decision to take. We have come to the conclusion that it would be appropriate to maintain around half of today’s gold holdings of approximately 2,600 tons as currency reserves. In principle, we are in favour of removing the other half of this gold from our balance sheet. However, we are willing to accept that, in a broader perspective, it may not be appropriate to outsource. In such a case, the gold holdings would have to be managed according to special criteria by external specialists under the responsibility of the National Bank.

It seems quite remarkable that all major banks in industrial countries are currently concerned with their strategy in this field. The future development in portfolio management is of particular significance to us. This is the core business of the Swiss financial industry. Further progress will depend in large measure on what the outlined background conditions will look like in future. In this context, it is the overall situation that counts rather than conditions in a certain area. Outlook At the turn of the century, Switzerland is economically and socially in good condition. Following years of frequently painful adjustments to a changing environment, preconditions for a balanced development are favourable. The quality and scope of these adjustments bear witness to the flexibility of our economy and society. The years ahead will continue to be characterised by constant change. It is therefore important to remain vigilant. On the basis of overall economic as well as social stability, innovative power and flexibility must be preserved. In a mature society, this represents a particular challenge. By keeping our own house in order, we also make the best possible contribution to international solidarity. In the narrower European context, our bilateral agreements with the European Union will form a good basis for cooperation in the coming years. In Europe and beyond, Switzerland traditionally has an extensive network of international relations which we shall continue to cultivate in the future. As far as these relations are of a political nature, an appropriate social consensus is necessary for doing so.
This reflects the fundamental reforms these EMEs have put in place over the past 15 years, as well as the hard lessons they learned from past periods of market stress. Among the positives are: •  The absence of the pegged exchange rate regimes that often were undermined violently in the past during periods of stress;  •  Improved debt service ratios and generally moderate external debt levels;  •  Larger foreign exchange reserve liquidity cushions;  •  Clearer and more coherent monetary policy frameworks, supporting what are now generally low to moderate inflation rates;  •  Generally improved fiscal discipline; and  •  Better capitalized banking systems, supported by strengthened regulatory and supervisory frameworks. Of course, progress has not been uniform across EMEs, and more work remains to further strengthen institutional structures in some countries. In particular, vulnerabilities remain in several important EMEs. Still, the fundamental improvements I’ve cited leave many EMEs better positioned than in the past to weather those times in the cycle when the external environment turns from welcoming to wary. The impact that changes in Fed policy can have beyond our borders has led to calls for us to do more to internalize those impacts, or even further, to internationally coordinate policymaking. As I’ve already noted, Fed policies have significant effects internationally, given the central place of U.S. markets in the global financial system and the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency.

Arthur Yuen: Regional approaches to global AML challenges Speech by Mr Arthur Yuen, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) 10th Annual AML &amp; Financial Crime Conference, Hong Kong, 23 April 2018. * * * Good Morning Ladies and gentlemen, 1. I am very honoured to be here today addressing such a distinguished audience. I would like to in particular thank ACAMS for your kind invitation, and for arranging this great event in Hong Kong. The topic for this event is very dear to my heart, since I have been closely involved in work that aims at enhancing the framework for countering money laundering and the financing of terrorism for almost 20 years as a banking supervisor. Indeed, tackling ML/TF is a core supervisory priority for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) in recent years, and so I am very delighted to have this opportunity to open the conference and meet so many professionals here to discuss how best to respond to some of the challenges posed to us by those who seek to abuse our highly efficient and international banking and payment systems. 2. From my perspective as a banking supervisor, everyone here - irrespective of your sector, experience and the jurisdiction that you work in - we all have an important role in combatting financial crime. Governments need your support in so many ways - in implementing relevant policies, in submitting suspicious transaction reports and sharing intelligence, to name just a few.
Irma Rosenberg: The monetary policy decision-making process Speech by Ms Irma Rosenberg, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Riksbanken, Stockholm, 13 June 2008. *  *  *  The Riksbank is considered to be one of the most open central banks in the world. 1 Openness has also been one of the basic principles in shaping our activities. If an independent central bank is to be perceived as credible it must be possible for outsiders to understand its decisions and to assess its activities. We have therefore tried to be as open and clear as possible about what we do and why we do it. This increases the credibility of our monetary policy and makes it easier to anchor inflation expectations around the target. Part of this openness entails clearly describing how our analyses are achieved and the processes for making interest rate decisions. I believe that most people are familiar with the way we conduct monetary policy in general. We look ahead and base our monetary policy on forecasts. We have held many speeches on this subject. But how do we go about producing a forecast that leads to a decision on the interest rate? This is probably not as well-known and I intend to talk about it today. In recent years we have changed our methods of working in a number of fields. For example, since the beginning of 2007 we report very clearly the future interest rate path we expect to see.

The aim is twofold: First, banks with more equity are better equipped to absorb losses that can arise as a result of excessive lending growth. Second, costs for mortgage lending rise, counteracting the build-up of imbalances in this segment. The buffer is called countercyclical because capital requirements increase when the mortgage market is on the rise. This dampens the upswing and strengthens the safety buffer of banks and of the financial system. The requirements are reduced in a downturn when banks have more capital available to absorb potential losses on loans. This mitigates the likelihood of systemic risk materialising and leading to a downwards spiral of emergency sales and loan defaults. Acting on proposals by the SNB, the Federal Council activated the sectoral CCyB in 2013 and, in 2014, increased it to 2% of risk-weighted mortgage loans for residential property in Switzerland. In addition to the sectoral CCyB, there are two measures in particular which the industry introduced in 2012 in the form of self-regulation. These measures address the demand for loans: First, the obligation that mortgage borrowers have to supply a minimum amount of own funds. Second, the obligation that part of the loan has to be repaid within a set period if the loaned amount constitutes more than two-thirds of the property value. 24  Cf. Smets (2014).
In such an environment, the increase in productivity becomes the main determinant of competition. When the data pertaining to sectors’ productivity, growth and exports in the 2001-2005 period are analyzed, it is seen that the sectors, which grew most rapidly and increased their exports the most, are also the sectors that increased their productivity the most. This development clearly points to the importance of the continuation of the measures that increase productivity in sectors. As you may assume, short-term approaches would not work in such a strongly competitive environment. It is necessary to develop medium term and long term strategies in order to be permanent and to gain a place. In this scope, public and private sectors should act together. The public sector should try to create a suitable environment for the private sector to compete with its rivals in international markets under market conditions. Today, the Turkish economy is at a point where a significant progress has been made on the road to macroeconomic stability. Provided the achievements so far are maintained, the reform process is continued without interruption and reinforced by taking the necessary micro-measures, the growth potential would increase and growth would be sustainable. After summarizing the growth process in Turkey and the changing dynamics, now I would like to move on to the developments pertaining to employment and the labor market. It is conceded that employment is one of the top items on the agenda of the Turkish economy. Unemployment rates have been very high for some time.

However, it can be said that this period of time is much shorter in case of the expectations channel, which is a part of the transmission mechanism and operates in a very effective manner in our economy. At this point, I would like to emphasize that the Turkish economy has entered a normalization process. As a matter of fact, in comparison with previous periods, the banking sector has a more robust structure and fiscal dominance has decreased considerably. As a result of this structure, any measures to be taken regarding the policy instrument should be evaluated in terms of the impacts of the monetary policy on inflation, rather than in view of the likely effects of these measures’ consequences on the above-mentioned areas. In other words, the increase in short-term interest rates, which are the policy instrument, should be evaluated merely as a necessary reaction of monetary policy for achieving the medium-term inflation targets. When the sub-indicators demonstrating the main trends in inflation are analyzed, it is observed that the targets for 2007 and 2008 seem achievable in light of the medium-term outlook as of the present date, as long as the cautious stance in monetary policy is maintained. Certainly, for the course of inflation to follow a path in line with the forecasts of the Bank, certain conditions need to be satisfied. In other words, there are some risks to the sustainability of the disinflation process in the medium-term.