samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
We expect banks to be able to finalize and start using their ICAAP by the end of December 2010, with the first ICAAP Report submitted to the BOT within the first quarter of the following year. The BOT would then begin reviewing banks’ ICAAP during bank examination that year. In assuring adequacy of capital over the business cycle, we believe it is very important to focus on countering procyclicality by ensuring capital and provision buffer, as well as to introduce IAS 39 which incorporates correction from problem or procyclicality as being considered by international standard setters and BCBS. Importantly, we emphasise the importance of consolidated supervision to ensure adequacy not only in capital but also riskmanagement of the entire banking group, particularly liquidity risk. In this regard, with respect to foreign banks, an important issue to push forward, in our view, is that of crossborder supervisory coordination, particularly better information sharing between home-host supervisors should be warranted. This is particularly important as the current crisis shows that there is a need for home supervisor of global financial conglomerate and banks to recognizing that global bank’s local operations may be systemically important for the host economies. In closing, I would like to share with you what I believe are the key changes in our financial landscape, resulting from this global crisis. First, bank business model would likely become more conservative, placing less reliance on wholesale financing and use of leverage, while focusing more on risk management and higher liquidity buffer.

Consumers themselves would be more risk averse and prefer to stick with simple transactions and products. As mentioned already, regulatory framework would be strengthened, especially the use of macroprudential oversight that focuses on system-wide stability. As such, closer supervision of systemically important financial institutions, including non-banks, would be required. Finally, the microprudential oversight would also be strengthened to rectify previously identified shortcomings, particularly the Basel II framework, corporate governance, and incentive misalignment. Though it looks as if we could be in the process of creating a “new world order”, given what we have done so far in strengthening our financial sector resilience, I believe that this transition would be a smooth one and add further strength to our financial system. Needless to say, a strong financial system is the backbone of sustainable economic growth in the longterm. Thank you for your attention. 4  BIS Review 131/2009
On the eve of a new post-covid era marked by the impacts of the crisis, rapid mutations and paradigm shifts, this work is more necessary than ever to strengthen the resilience of our economies and societies, a resilience that requires the mobilization and valorization of all resources, especially human resources, of which women are an essential component. Thank you for your attention. 3

A second informative feature is the similar evolution of the dollar in both episodes. It is natural to expect that a hiking cycle in the United States would strengthen the US Dollar relative to other currencies. This is indeed what happened in the 1994 cycle, with the US Dollar Broad appreciating about 7% in 2 years and almost 30% in 4 years. In contrast, the dollar weakened about 5% in the  4 It was not until the Asian crisis in 1998 when the consequences of balance of payment pressures where directly felt across the developing world. 5 Hereafter, all panels in figure 2 are centered around the month in which the hiking cycle started, labeled month 0. These correspond to February 1994, June 2004 and December 2015. 6 In this case, after a very sharp increase during 1994, the yield on the 10‐year US government bond fell significantly during 1995 to levels similar to those observed before the hiking cycle. 2          first 12 months in the 2004‐2006 cycle, at the very same time that the Federal Reserve had increased short term rates by 200 basis points. Because periods of dollar strength have tended to coincide with periods of weaker commodities, it is not surprising to see that commodities had a flat/declining trend in the second half of the 1990s. Indeed, high world interest rates, high credit spreads and low commodity prices all contributed to a weakening of emerging market economies.
•  Fabrication demand for gold, by contrast, for jewellery as well as for industrial uses, has contracted in recent months. In the industrialised countries, this decline has been mainly brought about by the economic slowdown. The high gold price, however, has also played a role, especially in developing countries. In countries such as India, which accounts for a quarter of gold demand, the precious metal is held in the first place for saving purposes. Investors use a more or less fixed portion of their disposable income to purchase gold. In times of rising gold prices, investors buy correspondingly less gold. From these developments we can draw two conclusions: •  In the long term, the main elements influencing gold price expectations are changes in private investors' demand, mines' production costs as well as the central banks' fundamental attitude towards their gold reserves. •  In the short and medium term, any change in producers' hedging policies and in the central banks' gold holdings, as well as speculative demand can trigger noticeable shifts in the gold price. These price movements, both upward and downward, may be relatively significant because the gold market is not very liquid, as experience has shown. Under this point of view, the central bank gold sales agreement of September 1999 has had a stabilising effect, since it has made the operations of central banks transparent and eliminated an important source of uncertainty. Our sales will continue until we have completed our programme, i.e. until we have sold 1,300 tonnes of gold.

I will not take the risk and predict the development of the gold price, but one thing is certain: it will remain volatile. Our possibilities to actively hedge the gold risk are restricted by the agreement of September 1999. In particular, we may conduct hedging transactions only in the amount of the sales quota allocated to us for the current year. We are therefore all the more convinced that our strategy of regular sales remains appropriate. The principles that have guided our operations for the past two years – namely fulfilment of our commitments under the central bank agreement, transparency in communication and situationadapted handling of day-to-day business – remain relevant. Management of the free assets The market value of the free asset portfolio – consisting of the as yet unsold portion of the 1,300 tonnes of gold and the proceeds from the already effected gold sales – amounted to Sfr 21 billion at the end of May. The free asset portfolio is managed separately from our other reserves, which will facilitate its transfer to the future beneficiaries once the legal framework has been put in place. As I mentioned earlier on, our possibilities of actively hedging the gold risk against an unfavourable development of the gold price are restricted by the agreement on gold sales of September 1999. However, we limited the risks of a weak US dollar that might reduce the value of our future sales by hedging 35% of the future proceeds in US dollars against the Swiss franc.
Gent Sejko: Role of the banking industry in the future development of Albania - challenges and opportunities Address by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, to the discussion meeting with senior banking sector officials, Tirana, 29 May 2019. * * *  Dear banking system executives, Dear guests, dear colleagues, I have the pleasure of welcoming you to this event, which brings us together to address some issues of particular importance to the banking sector and the Albanian economy as a whole. Today, we will be discussing the role of the banking sector in the development of Albania’s economy, from short, medium, and long-term perspectives. This is, in our opinion, a matter of both private and public interest. I am confident that the discussions around this table will yield a tangible product. Our aim is to adopt a common development philosophy that will guide the banking industry into the future, as well as to agree on a concrete and detailed plan of measures for improving the quantity and quality of lending and enriching the array of financial products. This meeting takes place only two weeks after the Third Conference of the Albanian Association of Banks, which was dedicated to the sustainable development of the banking sector in the future.

As a result, the effect of tightening the monetary policy on the aggregate demand has been significantly contained due to lack of response from long-term interest rates. In the world of global financial markets nobody seems to be surprised by the fact that during the session of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC 19 ) of the American Federal Reserve, the eyes of the entire financial market are fixed on its Chairman. Why is that? Decisions made by the FOMC in Washington are equally as important for investors in New York as those in London, Tokyo, Rio de Janeiro, Shanghai or even Warsaw. Not only do the FOMC decisions influence US economy, but also - via the financial markets channel - the entire global economy. An unexpected increase in interest rates in the USA may bring about a sudden outflow of capital from the emerging markets, and thus weaken the currencies of those countries and increase their bond yields. Some economists 20 make the point that an important aspect of the growing internationalisation of financial markets is increased discipline, which is extorted by investors on governments and central banks in individual countries. According to this hypothesis, the financial markets, through their continuous valuation of securities, duly reward good and punish bad economic policies. However, the empirical results do not provide hard evidence to support the thesis on fiscal policy discipline.
As under the gold standard or the fixed exchange rate regimes, it is again our own choice of nominal anchor that determines the rate of inflation in Norway over time. 2  BIS Review 102/2007  Future studies will probably find that inflation reverts to the inflation target over time. This is an indication that monetary policy is working and not that there is a natural inflation rate or a natural, self-regulating mechanism. Inflation is still influenced by exogenous conditions. Increased globalisation, particularly China’s growing importance in world trade, has in the past ten years for example resulted in low imported inflation measured in a foreign currency. At the same time, productivity growth has been high in many countries. These positive supply-side features have for a period contributed to a favourable development in the short-term trade-off between economic growth and inflation. As a result, many countries where inflation was a little too high at the outset have been able to bring down inflation at virtually no cost. In this respect, we can probably talk about some degree of endogeneity in inflation.1 However, it is still up to the authorities through the orientation of monetary policy to choose whether inflation is to remain low and stable on a more permanent basis. Over time, interest rate setting is aimed at keeping inflation close to target. In the process, interest rates will have short-term direct or indirect effects on a number of other economic variables.

A model will never be able to provide an exhaustive description of reality, but a good macro model can and should be a framework for ratiocination. In this way, the model plays an important role in the analytical basis for interest rate setting. At the same time, there are many questions and conditions about which we are uncertain and where models cannot help us. For example, we do not know whether the high rate of growth in productivity is a permanent phenomenon or whether it will gradually fall back. We have little precise knowledge about what is driving productivity growth. It may be that we are seeing a period of equilibrium with higher employment, lower unemployment and lower wage shares than earlier. But we are uncertain how long this period will last. Even if we use different models and anecdotal information, we cannot escape the need for a healthy portion of qualified judgement when making forecasts and setting the interest rate. My experience from as far back as the 1970s is that in the event of major disturbances and structural changes in the economy, one essentially has to rely on general insights about the functioning of the economy. Models that rely heavily on regressions easily break down.
Some kinds of public policies may exacerbate, rather than lessen, the tendency of the housing market to price some families out of good neighborhoods. Zoning and other land use regulations are sometimes enacted to artificially reduce the supply of housing, thus driving its price up even further. Take, for example, minimum lot size zoning which specifies a minimum amount of land per housing unit. When this regulation is binding, it reduces the number of housing units that can be built in a given area, and thus introduces artificial scarcity into the housing market, thereby raising prices. 9  Heckman (2006). 10  Deming (2009). 11  See Bayer et al. (2008), Schmutte (2015), Hellerstein et al. (2011), Aslund et al. (2011). 12  Chetty et al. (2015). 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Zoning can also be used to promote affordable housing – to include, rather than exclude lowand moderate-income families by setting aside space for those families in exchange for the right to develop market-rate units. This is a strategy that New York and other large cities have pursued for many years, and in these cities it is easy to point to units that were developed under the program. Nonetheless, these programs are often controversial – some economists and others argue by increasing the cost of development they restrict supply. Thus, while some percentage of new units developed will be affordable, fewer new units will be developed with uncertain effects on affordability overall.

William C Dudley: Economic opportunity and income mobility Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Association for Neighborhood and Housing Development Annual Community Development Conference, New York City, 11 April 2016. *  *  *  Good morning. I am very pleased to speak at the 6th Annual Community Development Conference. I would like to give a special thanks to the Association for Neighborhood and Housing Development for organizing this conference about issues of importance to the community development industry and to the future of New York City. At the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, we develop a wide variety of research and data products to gain a deeper understanding of regional economic conditions. We track the health of household balance sheets at the state and local level using data from the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel. We also conduct an annual poll of small businesses to understand their credit needs and credit availability. My meeting with you today is part of our continuing efforts to understand what is going on at the grassroots level of our economy and to share insights from the New York Fed. The Federal Reserve has dual objectives, set by Congress, with respect to monetary policy – maximum sustainable employment and price stability. I would like to focus my remarks today on the first of these objectives.
To prevent farmers from resorting to out-selling for short-term price benefits, buyers on many occasions agreed to raise the contract price to assure them an uninterrupted supply line. However, it is encouraging to note that the established farmers could not be lured by these temporary gains and preferred to enjoy long-run relationships with buyers. 10  BIS Review 22/2008  credit and continuous government patronage to cross the poverty line and join the mainstream of the economy, the Central Bank’s Isuru Project, coupled with the forward sale contract system, has been able to establish a more effective poverty alleviation system through the market mechanism. The success of the Isuru Project in this respect is due to the following features unique to the project: •  Selection of beneficiaries was free from political or other elitist interference and done by the beneficiaries themselves through a self selection process. Hence, undeserving elements were kept out of the project activities. •  Interest rates were deliberately set above the normal market rates so as to compel the borrowers to reckon the cost of funds in their project planning and avoid the misuse of funds. •  Lending was done on easy terms and procedures similar to the systems followed by informal money lenders. The objective was to eliminate money lenders competitively by providing a better service at a lower rate. •  Thrift and savings preceded lending to inculcate proper conservation habits among beneficiaries.

As a result, the household sector’s financial condition today is in unusually good shape for this point in the economic cycle. In relative terms, household indebtedness is low, and—thanks in part to low interest rates—debt service burdens relative to household income have fallen to levels not seen since at least the early 1980s. As we will show in today’s presentation, compared to 2008, a greater proportion of overall debt today is now held by older households that have higher and more stable incomes and more experience as borrowers, on average. Consequently, a much larger proportion of debt is currently held by borrowers with higher credit scores. The resulting higher overall debt quality is reflected in historically low overall delinquency rates. Transition rates into new delinquency are below the levels of the early 2000s, and foreclosure and bankruptcy rates in 2016 are the lowest since our data series began in 1999. Notwithstanding this overall rosy picture, the improvement in aggregate debt quality and performance conceals important underlying changes in debt holdings that could be consequential, with implications for the housing market and for consumer spending over the longer term. While older borrowers hold more debt of all types, there has been a significant shift among younger people toward student debt and away from mortgage and other debt. Student debt has increased more than fivefold over the past 14 years, with more young adults taking out loans and borrowing larger average amounts. And, while debt delinquency rates overall have fallen, those for student debt have remained elevated.
4  BIS Review 16/2010  the inflation target and resource utilization around a normal level. In the event of conflicting objectives, it achieves a reasonable compromise between the stability of inflation and the stability of resource utilization. Different central banks express this in slightly different words. The Riksbank has often used the term “well-balanced” monetary policy. 3 The forecasts of inflation and the real economy are then conditional on the central bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, an estimate of the current state of the economy and a forecast of important exogenous variables. The central bank uses all relevant information that has an impact on the forecast of inflation and the real economy. In this framework, the central bank takes financial conditions such as credit growth, asset prices, imbalances, potential asset price bubbles and so on into account only to the extent that they have an impact on the forecast of inflation and resource utilization. Inflation and resource utilization are target variables, that is, variables that the central bank tries to stabilize. Financial conditions are not target variables. Instead, they are only indicators, as they provide information to the central bank about the state of the economy, the transmission mechanism and exogenous shocks. Financial conditions then affect policy rates only to the extent that they have an impact on the forecast of inflation and resource utilization. 4 Now, is there any reason to modify this view of monetary policy given the experience of the financial crisis so far?

Second, the circumstances in which the regime would be triggered should be spelt out as clearly as possible. It is unrealistic to imagine that entry to the regime could be triggered by reference to quantitative triggers alone. Some discretion will be necessary. But the triggers should contain some quantifiable measures for both capital and liquidity, and there should be transparency in advance about their formulation to constrain the authorities’ discretion. Moreover, looking ahead, although the regulator should have the leading role in triggering the regime, no regulator, however effectively managed, can ever fully insulate itself against the risk of forbearance which might delay a necessary resolution. That is why the Bank believes that the resolution authority, wherever it is located, should have a powerful voice in decisions on the use of the trigger. Moreover, any resolution authority will have a natural interest in the timing of a decision to place a bank under its control. Third, a clear framework for accountability should be established to give confidence that decisions relating to the resolution regime are exercised in line with the objectives for the regime set out in legislation. 2  BIS Review 75/2008  Turning to deposit insurance, I understand the concerns that many of you have voiced about the reforms discussed in the tripartite Consultation Document. I know that you accept that to avoid bank runs there will need to be 100% insurance of deposits – up to a limit. That limit should not be too high.