samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Possibly, the outcome has been slightly weaker than we expected. The most recent labour market statistics show that unemployment in the euro area remained at an all-time high in June. Spain and Greece were hardest hit, with an unemployment rate exceeding 20 per cent. At the same time, inflation has remained high. A week ago, preliminary GDP figures for the second quarter were published. They showed that GDP in the euro area fell in relation to the first quarter. Statistics for developments in July pointed to a continued weak outcome in the euro area in the coming period. Our forecast in July was that GDP will fall somewhat this year and then rise again in 2013. The statistics released so far support the impression that GDP will decline this year. In the United Kingdom, preliminary calculations show that GDP fell during the second quarter, compared with the first, which means that GDP has fallen three quarters in a row. At the same time, inflation in June and July was at its lowest level in more than two years. The new statistics from the United States have probably increased uncertainty over the strength of the recovery in the US economy. Preliminary figures show that GDP increased in the second quarter by 1.5 per cent, calculated as an annual rate, compared with the first quarter of this year. This means that growth slowed down by half a percentage point compared with the first quarter.

It is a great satisfaction to see the BIS Innovation Hub pushing ahead with several wholesale CBDC projects such as Jura and Dunbar, in which the Banque de France is an active participant. And more broadly, it also a satisfaction to see that more and more central banks, notably some from Asia, show an interest for wholesale CBDC. I will conclude by quoting Zaha Hadid, the Iraq born architect who was the first woman to receive the Pritzker prize in 2004. Her iconic buildings, all swooping curves and flowing space, never featured any right angle. “There are 360 degrees, so why stick to one?” Zaha Hadid used to say. What an inspiring thought for us today. I thank you for your attention.
In principle, a “simple” alternative would be to set a large fund to guarantee the European sovereign debt and help recapitalize the banks. Its sole existence would reinstate confidence, reduce risk premiums and restore the viability to sovereigns and financial institutions. The trouble is that the European legislation does not have the institutions to implement these solutions. And they must define the fiscal support that such measures would require and how to allocate the burden among the participants. It is precisely on these fronts that the authorities are working and hopefully a solution can be arrived at in the short term. Otherwise, the European situation will continue to hold the world under a lot of pressure still for some months. Moreover, some countries in the Eurozone are facing serious competitiveness problems, thus depressing growth and, since they have no foreign exchange mechanism, solving them will take time because it requires flexibility and structural reforms to boost productivity. Monetary policy implications Today, in Chile, the expected course of the economy and monetary policy has changed from the beginning of the year. The focus is now on the effects that the weak global economy will have on the Chilean economy, especially on growth and inflation. About the former, we said in our last Monetary Policy Report that Chile’s growth would be in the 6.25%–6.75% range this year, to decline in 2012 to 4.25%– 5.25%.

4  BIS Review 157/2008  Chart 1: Risk premia in the money market CHF 3M Libor - 3M TOIS swap EUR 3M Euribor - 3M Eonia swap basis points 400  USD 3M Libor - 3M OIS swap GBP 3M Libor - 3M Sonia swap  350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0  J  A  S  O  N  D J 08 F  M  A  M  J  J  A  S  O  N  D  Source: SNB Markets Analysis Platform, Bloomberg  Chart 2: Comparison of share price performance 2000 1987 1973 1929 Dow Jones I ndustrial Average, Peak=100 120  Present  100 80 60 40 20 0  trading days before/ after peak -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000  Source: SNB Markets Analysis Platform, Bloomberg  BIS Review 157/2008  5  Chart 3: Target range, three-month Libor and repo rates SNB 1W repo  CHF 3M Libor  % 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0  J  A  S  O  N  D J 08 F  M  A  M  J  J  A  S  O  N  D  Source: SNB Markets Analysis Platform, Bloomberg  6  BIS Review 157/2008
While the basic legal, regulatory and supervisory framework that takes into account the distinctive features of Islamic finance are already in place, efforts are now underway to put in place a comprehensive infrastructure to deal with the new challenges confronting the international financial system. Looking beyond the current crisis, an integrated crisis management framework will be part of this infrastructure. It is recognised that a more facilitative and modernised legal framework is also required and that the boundaries of the regulatory framework for Islamic finance would also have to be regularly adapted to keep pace with the evolution and transformation of the financial system. Finally, the supervisory framework for Islamic finance is also being reinforced by a financial safety net framework that comprises the lender of last resort facility and a deposit insurance system. These financial arrangements are now in place in Malaysia. Also important are the institutional arrangements for resolution of troubled Islamic financial institutions. In Malaysia, we have in place a mandated resolution mechanism to provide for expedient, effective and cost efficient resolution of Islamic financial institutions. Yet to be put in place however, is a mechanism for cooperation between regulators within and across jurisdictions for resolution to contain potential systemic risks beyond the national boundaries.

The higher level of foreign participation in the Islamic financial markets which has resulted in the increase in cross border flows in the international Islamic financial system thereby, enhancing international financial linkages between financial systems. Liberalisation has also brought greater foreign institutional presence in Islamic financial systems resulting in greater diversity of players and strengthening further the international financial linkages. Malaysia has very much been part of this process. In 2003, the Islamic financial system was liberalised to allow for increased foreign presence. In 2007, the sukuk market was liberalised to allow the raising of funds by eligible corporates from any part of the world in any currency. And this year, the first foreign currency sukuk of USD1.5 billion was successfully issued by our petroleum corporation with a significant over subscription by investors from Europe, Middle East and Asia. As the international dimension of Islamic finance gains momentum, it is necessary to facilitate the potential for liquidity management across borders. As part of an international collaborative effort, a Task Force on Liquidity Management was set up by the IFSB and the IDB early this year to develop solutions to enhance the efficiency of Islamic financial institutions in managing liquidity at both the national and international levels. A further area of international collaboration is towards promoting value-added investment in human capital building as a long term solution to sustainable growth of the Islamic financial industry.
Yellow indicates normal conditions. Includes bank and non-bank credit. BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  Chart 9: Term premia have been a significant driver of the decline in yields Change in expected policy rates Change in term premia Change in nominal interest rates  Basis 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90  UK Source: Bank calculations  Chart shows estimates of contribution to change in 10-year government bond yields between end July 2014 and end April 2015. Derived using the model described in Malik, S and Meldrum A (2014)  Chart 10: Central banks will purchase around $ per month (on average)until September 2016. Monthly flow of G4 Central Bank Asset Purchases (6-month moving average, $  250 200 150 100 50 0  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Euro Area  Japan  US  UK  Total  Sources: BoE, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, ECB, DataStream Asset purchases have been converted to $ using $ per pound, $ per euro, and 120 yen per $  12  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Inventories fell substantially in the first quarter, partly due to the rebound of mining exports, but there is also less disposition to keep inventories in other sectors. Business confidence in the industry, as measured by the Indicator of Business Confidence (IMCE), has declined significantly and the domestic-demand-related sectors are below neutral, as of last May. The lower growth in final demand and the larger increase in exports have also translated into a faster reduction of the current account deficit, which closed the first quarter at 3.1 percent of GDP (3.4 percent in end-of 2013). At trend prices, the current account deficit has also been adjusted substantially (figure 4). Despite two quarters of economic slowdown, the unemployment rate is still low by historical standards. Some deterioration has been seen in salaried job creation, counteracted by a surge in self-employment. Vacancies are also growing less. At any rate, nominal wages showed an acceleration, but this becomes a moderation when expressed in real terms. Since last October, the Board has cut 100 basis points off the policy rate, helping to reduce short-term interest rates and also long-term financing costs, on occasion to record-low levels. For instance, interest rates on Central Bank indexed bonds at 5 and 10 years are in historical minimums, while the nominal rates of the same bonds are near them (figure 5).
Minouche Shafik: The interaction of monetary and macroprudential policy Speech by Ms Minouche Shafik, Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking of the Bank of England, at the IMF panel on “Revisiting Monetary Policy Frameworks”, Lima, 10 October 2015. *  *  *  I would like to thank David Aikman, Angus Foulis, Grellan McGrath and Alex Varadi for input to the preparation of these remarks and Don Kohn for comments on an early draft. •  The “lean or clean” debate used to be one of the most contentious in monetary policy until the crisis. Should monetary policy “lean against the wind” in the expansion phase of the credit cycle? Or should it remain solely focused on delivering the inflation target and “clean up” after the credit cycle contracts? The crisis taught us that cleaning up afterwards is a very expensive proposition. But are we confident enough in macroprudential tools to prevent the emergence of unmanageable risks during the credit cycle? The debate remains very much live, in part because macro-prudential policies are still nascent and we have not yet accumulated sufficient evidence through a credit cycle to make definitive judgements about optimal policy. “Lean versus macropru” remains an area in which perfectly reasonable people can have very different opinions. •  At one end of the spectrum there are those – such as Lars Svensson – who argue that the cost-benefit calculus is likely to be tilted heavily away from directing monetary policy at credit bubbles.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Once a student, always a student Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the University of Bern, Switzerland, 9 February 2006. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  Like all decisions relating to the future, monetary policy decisions involve numerous uncertainties. Economic researchers are divided as regards both the effects of monetary policy and the form that this policy should take. There are a number of competing models in economic theory, and their policy recommendations often vary. Relationships that have been stable in the past may change at any time, due to the fact that the structural equations used in economic models are not based on the laws of nature. The Swiss National Bank's monetary policy concept takes account of these uncertainties. Our inflation forecast is a key element in this concept and combines the results obtained by a variety of different models. Research is extremely important in our changing world. We can only be sure of identifying new developments as early as possible and basing our monetary policy decisions on a solid foundation if we engage in constant research. BIS Review 9/2006  1
In this year in particular, we are seeing a strengthening of the international dimension of our financial sector. This essentially serves to strengthen our economic and financial inter-linkages with the global economy. Some notable developments in this direction include the liberalisation of the foreign exchange administration rules earlier this year to allow for greater flexibility and efficiency in foreign exchange transactions as well as to increase foreign participation in issuing ringgit papers in our bond market and thus contribute to contribute toward enhancing the depth of the market. Another major development this year was the move to a managed float exchange rate regime for the ringgit. This is essentially to better position the nation to respond and benefit from the structural changes occurring in the region and the global economy. Other further developments to strengthen our international integration include the increase in foreign participation in our domestic financial system. This includes the issuance of new licences for foreign Islamic banks to operate in Malaysia, the issuance of new stock-broking licences to foreign players as well as increases in the permitted foreign interest in our Islamic subsidiaries and investment banks. All this will serve to enhance the international integration of the domestic financial system. The launch of the ABF Malaysian Bond Index Fund is also aimed at promoting greater integration among the regional bond markets. On the domestic front, the year 2005 marks a significant milestone for the merchant banking industry.

Work is also already underway to establish an international centre for education in Islamic finance to produce the professionals and expertise that is vital for the global development of Islamic finance. Conclusion The year has therefore been marked by significant developments on several fronts. Going forward, we need to build on the successes to fully maximise the potential benefits. In this dynamic environment, it is the cumulative efforts of the industry that will allow this hard-earned progress to yield sustainable results. We now stand at the threshold of the development of the financial sector. The merchant banking industry will need to confront the emerging challenges squarely and seize the new opportunities that will emerge with its new intermediation structure. There will also be an important need to stay alert on the emerging domestic and global trends and to be aligned to be well positioned to respond to the new emerging environment and thus sustain the effectiveness of the performance and contribution of the sector to the economy. On that note, let me take this opportunity to wish you all a very happy new year, and a productive and successful year ahead. 4  BIS Review 83/2005
Thomas Jordan: The euro and Swiss monetary policy Speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Europa Forum Lucerne, Lucerne, 2 May 2016. *  *  *  The speaker would like to thank Tobias Cwik and Mathias Zurlinden for their valuable support in preparing this speech. He also extends his thanks to Petra Gerlach and Carlos Lenz, as well as to Communications and Language Services at the SNB. When the euro was created almost two decades ago, there was considerable uncertainty about how the currency would impact Switzerland. My predecessors on the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank regularly commented on subsequent euro developments in speeches and frequently voiced their expectations and concerns. Things ran fairly smoothly in the first few years; but the financial and debt crisis rocked the currency union and put the euro under pressure. The SNB has responded with a flexible and pragmatic monetary policy. As the difficulties have not yet been overcome, it is too early to draw definite conclusions. One thing is clear, however: getting to grips with the challenges we face has been – and remains – harder than the cartoon character in the picture suggests (cf. chart 1). From the SNB’s point of view, the experiences of recent years have once again highlighted the importance and value of monetary sovereignty. Monetary sovereignty has its price, of course, but it remains true that the interests of our country are best served by retaining this independence.

Page 1/3  • In addition, the development of crypto-asset and DeFi comes with significant policy challenges for public authorities, that were highlighted in our discussions today: o First, they raise the question of how to regulate market players, which are not easily captured by existing regulation as they either lack central authority or may require close coordination between several regulatory and supervisory agencies due to the variety of their activities. o Second, the rise of these new assets has led central banks to reflect on the appropriate balance between public money and private assets and the way in which access to public money could be ensured in the digital era through the issuance of Central Bank Digital Currency. The second takeaway is that private players identify substantial benefits associated with distributed ledger technologies and consider that an appropriate regulatory framework would help make the most of these technologies. •  But we know from experience that public authorities need to act quickly, while this ecosystem is still nascent, to guide its development in a way that suits our public policy objectives. We are now at a tipping point. If we do fail to act, there is a risk that inefficient, fragmented, monopolistic solutions could develop in a silo mode, harming financial stability. But if we act early, we can foster the development of an innovative ecosystem, which will improve the efficiency of post-trading processes and infrastructures.
Caleb M Fundanga: Africa and the global financial and economic crisis – an opportunity or a curse? Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the Forum “Developing Africa – an opportunity for Europe, Italy and Sicily”, Taormina, Sicily, 1-2 October 2009. *  *  *  Chairperson, Distinguished Participants, Today we gather at a time when the world economy has gone through a tremendous economic and financial shock, which may well have long lasting social consequences. When we met last year, we were on the eve of disaster although we did not, and perhaps could not, appreciate the depth and severity of the crisis that we faced. In many ways we were in the calm before the storm. What subsequently transpired in September and October 2008, when financial markets froze and stock markets collapsed, was the greatest macroeconomic challenge that many of us, as practicing economists, are likely to face in our lifetime. As we all know, trade and output contracted sharply across the globe particularly in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, the downward trend in commodity prices witnessed since the historic highs of July 2008 accelerated, and perhaps most significantly confidence and trust in the market economy was severely impaired. In this regard, estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are that in the fourth quarter of 2008 global exports contracted by an average of 15.1%, whilst global output contracted by 6.5%.

Andrew Gracie: LAC and MREL – from design to implementation Speech by Mr Andrew Gracie, Executive Director of Resolution of the Bank of England, at the BBA loss absorbing capacity forum, London, 23 July 2015. *  *  *  Thanks for the opportunity to speak. In many ways, resolution is the last major piece of the financial reform agenda and ensuring banks have sufficient loss-absorbing capacity is central to that. Rules in this area remain to be finalised, but the components are coming into place. The binding requirement for European resolution authorities is, from early next year, to begin setting a minimum requirement of own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL) for all EU banks in line with the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) requirements and European Banking Authority (EBA) Regulatory Technical Standards (RTS). You will have seen that the RTS have recently been published in an “EBA final” version. This will be a binding EU regulation once formally adopted by the Commission. For European G-SIBs, MREL requirements will need to be set consistently with the FSB’s Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) standard. Consultation responses on this are being considered alongside the results of the impact assessment. The standard will be finalised by the time of the G20 summit in November. So no definitive statements today, but I want to address some recurrent issues, including some points that have cropped up in the FSB and EBA consultations.