samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In contrast, if growth were instead to fall below my forecast, then I would be less confident that inflation would return to our 2 percent objective. In addition, I put some weight on the fact that surveys from both the University of Michigan and the New York Fed indicate that household longer-term inflation expectations have declined somewhat over the past year and are in the lower end of their historical ranges. Nevertheless, I am not unduly worried because the magnitude of these declines has been modest, and because the New York Fed’s three-year2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  ahead inflation measure has been gradually increasing since January and has reversed much of the decline observed in the second half of 2015. Low longer-term inflation expectations, if allowed to become entrenched, would act as a restraint on actual inflation making it more difficult for us to meet our inflation objective. In contrast, I put less weight on the significantly larger declines in market-based measures of inflation compensation over the past two years. From my perspective, these declines seem driven more by changes in bond term premia and the relative liquidity characteristics of nominal versus inflation-protected Treasury securities than by sharply falling inflation expectations. Implications of the outlook for US monetary policy If, as I have indicated, the U.S. growth and inflation outlooks have not changed notably, then why have expectations about U.S. monetary policy shifted so much?

The nine MBS issues sponsored by the HKMC so far, totalling $ billion dollars, have all been guaranteed by the HKMC. These issues were all welcomed by investors. The HKMC prides itself on being a financial institution that spearheads product innovation in Hong Kong's capital markets. For this issue, after consulting the market, the HKMC has decided to adopt a MBS structure along the lines of a Collateralised Mortgage Obligation. The CMO structure divides the pool of underlying mortgage assets into credit tranches or classes with different tenors and interest rates to suit the appetites of a wider range of investors in Hong Kong and the region. In today's two billion dollars MBS issue, the Class A portion accounts for 87% of the issue and does not carry any guarantee. Class B accounts for 13% of the issue and is guaranteed by the HKMC. Class A has been assigned a triple-A rating by both Moody's and S&P's. The award of this top rating to Class A reflects the good credit quality of the underlying mortgage pool and the credit enhancement through subordination provided by Class B, which absorbs the first loss in the mortgage pool. The low level of subordination at 13% reflects the high quality of the collateral, the innovative structuring of the issue and market's confidence in the HKMC's ability to manage the credit risk of the mortgage portfolio.
The first sentence in the mandate refers to the value of the krone. Stability in the internal value of the krone implies that inflation must be low and stable. Low and stable inflation fosters economic growth and stability in financial and property markets. The regulation also states that monetary policy shall be aimed at stability in the Norwegian krone’s external value, contributing to stable expectations concerning exchange rate developments. With open trade with other countries and free capital movements, we do not have the instruments to fine-tune the krone exchange rate. The krone has appreciated when economic activity has been high and there have been expectations of a wide interest rate differential. The krone has depreciated when activity has declined and the interest rate differential has narrowed. There is also a strong tendency for the krone to revert to a level that stabilises the price level in Norway relative to our trading partners, measured in a common currency.1  The conduct of monetary policy Norges Bank’s operational conduct of monetary policy shall be oriented towards low and stable inflation. Norges Bank operates a flexible inflation targeting regime, so that variability in output and employment and in inflation is given weight. Inflation shall be 2½ per cent over time. Monetary policy influences the economy with long and variable lags, and the Bank must therefore be forward-looking in interest-rate setting. In the operational conduct of monetary policy in Norway, the path of inflation and the real economy in the period ahead will be taken into account.

As the cycle, or perhaps I should say if the cycle, becomes synchronized all over the world, the need for independent monetary policies may fade away. Gradually, the number of currencies in the world will decrease through time. This is not economic fiction: a tendency in this direction is already present among smaller countries in Latin America with large trade and investment relationships with the United States. However, a world tendency to a significant decrease in the number of currencies is probably a very long run one, where Keynes’ dictum on the long run comes to mind. In any case, I am convinced that, 5 as Rogoff argues in a recent paper , it may not be desirable to pursue currency consolidation all the way. Meanwhile, in the short and medium run, the increase in productivity provides more room for monetary policy to maneuver. Productivity growth alleviate inflationary pressures providing more room for monetary policy to exert its short run influence on the real economy. 5. Flexibility  The key word for an emerging economy in a changing world is flexibility: in exchange rates and interest rates, to accommodate shocks without concentrating their effects in one particular market; in factor markets, both labor and capital, to minimize the cost of transition from one state of the economy to another. The task before us, in an emerging economy like Chile, is to increase flexibility in all markets.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  In Malta GDP per capita grew by 11.6% over the last decade while the increase in the euro area amounted to 5%, and the recession in 2009 was shorter and relatively less deep than that experienced by Malta’s trading partners. The Maltese economy, nevertheless, still faces a number of challenges. One area of relevance is the inflation rate, which at an average rate of 2.5% since 2004, has tended to stay slightly above the 2.1% average rate in the euro area as a whole, although the latest data show an annual inflation rate below that for the euro area. In this context, greater attention should be given to the identification of any structural shortcomings that may be contributing to the slightly higher inflation, and the excessive volatility apparent in Malta’s inflation rate as compared to the euro zone. Although imported inflation is inevitable, we have to be particularly mindful of locally generated price pressures or inflexibilities in structures which may not be responding sufficiently to competitive pressures. Productivity growth is essential not only for enhanced competitiveness but also to justify wages that permit a sustainable increase in living standards. Productivity growth in Malta since EU accession was broadly in line with that experienced by the euro area as a whole. Still, catching up with the rising living standards of the more affluent EU countries requires even faster growth in productivity.

Such a scheme would be justified as one which reallocates resources from current to future consumption, and the reallocation would occur only during a time of relative prosperity. 5  See F. Holme-Hadulla, S. Hauptmeier and P. Rother, “The impact of numerical expenditure rules on budgetary discipline over the cycle”, ECB Working Paper Series No 1169, April 2010; see S. Hauptmeier, J. S. Fuentes and L. Schuknecht, “Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area”, ECB Working Paper Series No 1266, November 2010. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  While this on its own would not ensure the sustainability of the pension system, it would be an important component in the process of pension reform, and, as I have already mentioned, I would suggest that it would be appropriate for deliberation at the MCESD. The phenomenon of population ageing raises sustainability challenges also for the public provision of healthcare, which represents a significant share of government expenditure. It must be recognised that the extent of provision of free healthcare and other services by the State must ultimately be financed by the taxpayer. The earmarking of certain revenue measures or particular revenue streams for this purpose may also be an appropriate topic for consideration by the social partners. The sustainability of funding the government’s capital expenditure programme, particularly in relation to the infrastructure and the public utilities through fiscal resources may also have to be reviewed.
The entry into force of the SSM will really mark a major milestone on the road to the completion of the Economic and Monetary Union and to the construction of Europe. It will contribute to fostering financial integration and to breaking the loop between banking and sovereign risk: In sum, it will strengthen financial stability in Europe. In the run-up to assuming supervisory functions, the ECB and the National Competent Authorities are conducting together a comprehensive assessment, to check the soundness of the 128 banks that will be under the direct supervision of the ECB. The ultimate aim of this exercise, which began in October 2013, is to build confidence as to the soundness of the banks under the SSM by two means: transparency and, if needed, recapitalisation. As it is well known, the assessment consists of two pillars: an asset quality review and a stress test. The first pillar, the Asset Quality Review, began in February and will conclude in August. It examines the asset side of bank balance sheets as of 31 December 2013. The second pillar, the stress test, began in May and will evaluate the ability to maintain adequate solvency levels under stress, using the methodology agreed by the ECB and the European Banking Authority. This process will conclude in September and the publication of the results of the whole exercise is expected in late October. After this disclosure, those banks facing a capital shortfall will have to submit their recapitalisation plans to the ECB.

Luis M Linde: “The Financial System ahead of the Banking Union” Opening speech by Mr Luis M Linde, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the 5th edition of the Expansion – KPMG Financial Forum, Madrid, 23 May 2014. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It is for me a pleasure to open this fifth edition of the Expansion – KPMG Financial Forum and to introduce Ms Sabine Lautenschläger, member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the Single Supervisory Mechanism. Sabine Lautenschläger – I hope my German pronunciation is approximately correct – is a very well known and respected European expert in banking supervision and central banking. After graduating in law at the University of Bonn, she joined the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, Bafin, in 1995, where she held relevant positions, serving as Chief Executive Director of Banking Supervision. She was also a member of the Basel Committee of Banking Supervision and of the European Banking Authority’s Management Board. In 2011 she joined the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank as its Deputy President. Let me turn now very briefly to the topic of this event, namely The Financial System ahead of the Banking Union. It is indeed a very timely issue as the ECB is currently immersed in the preparatory work to assume its new banking supervision functions, within the framework of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), on 4th November.
This is most pertinent for regulators and for central banks’ work in economy-wide forecasting, policy analysis and scenario simulation. I would also encourage further research in this area, including developing empiricallyvalidated feedback relationships that can be embedded into models for stress testing purposes. Evaluating the impact of FinTech 25 Turning now to a recent pet topic of interest – FinTech. Much has been written and reported on technology innovations that have and will continue to disrupt business models. There are also many views around disruptions to jobs and on socio-economic relationships. 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  26 Let me make some brief comments on MAS’ regulatory stance towards innovation in financial services. For any innovation or a new technology-based business model to take off, it must be purposeful and value creating. 27 For example, there are FinTech entities that have entered the financial inclusion space, especially in the rural areas, and boosted economic growth. 28 There are other examples. Robo-advisory services can allow investors greater access to customised, low-cost financial advice. Other initiatives like open banking can provide potential benefits to a broad range of consumers by allowing for the easy portability of data and payment instructions. The use of distributed ledger technology, or blockchain, may replace traditional central party systems or intermediaries by creating alternative trusted platforms. Such blockchain-based immutable transaction and account records may help to facilitate cross-border transactions, by cutting costs and settlement time without compromising on security and certainty.

The current unusual circumstances are one of the main drivers for the prolonged boom in the local property sector. The risk of over-heating in the property sector to financial stability in Hong Kong is no smaller than that seen in 1997. We should note in particular that while mortgage rates were generally over 10% in 1997, after the burst of the property bubble, US interest rates have fallen, and mortgage rates in Hong Kong have spiralled down reaching about 2% in 2004. The situation we faced now is just the opposite. Mortgage rates are around 2%. And, even if the low interest rate environment were to remain until 2015 as anticipated by the US Federal Reserve, the US interest rates are bound to head back to more normal levels. Will mortgage borrowers in Hong Kong then be able to withstand the impact of interest rate hikes and property price falls? For example, under a 30-year mortgage, even though the borrower will be able to enjoy a low interest rate in the first two years, the repayment burden could become much heavier as a result of interest rate hikes in the years that follow. This could have serious consequences for the well-being of those families in the coming years. Therefore, I hope that the public will be cautious and should not underestimate the risks that rising interest rate could have on repayment ability, asset prices and the overall economy in Hong Kong. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
It is of course important to distinguish between on the one hand our policy and our assessments, and on the other hand the way we communicate them – our communication strategy. I therefore wish to discuss these areas separately today. Moreover, there are other new elements that have been discussed with the Committee on Finance and are linked to the ambition to become clearer and more open. So let me begin there – by briefly discussing the changes we have made recently and why we have made them. After that I will go on to talk about the economic situation and interest rate policy. Changes for better monetary policy The driving forces behind greater openness and clarity Both the Riksbank and most other central banks have become more open and clear in recent years (slide 1). This is partly because we have seen it as a way to easier attain our target  BIS Review 132/2007  1  and to make monetary policy more efficient. By being open about the way we think, it is easier for others to predict our monetary policy. It will also be easier for the general public to make sure that the interest rate decisions we make are really aimed at achieving low and stable inflation. This increases the credibility of the inflation target and makes it easier to anchor expectations around two per cent. Developments in Sweden from the mid-1990s onwards are a good example of this (slide 2).

This means in turn that it is reasonable to assume that wages will rise more quickly (slide 8). And the agreements signed so far support this picture. The new agreements will make an impact in 2008, and the labour shortages will also become more marked then. We are therefore counting on wages increasing more during next year than in 2007, by around 4.5 per cent. Labour costs per hour are also expected to increase. How this affects companies’ costs for the goods they produce will in turn depend on how productivity develops. Productivity growing more slowly and labour costs increasing If one looks back at the past decade, productivity in the Swedish economy has improved significantly (slide 9). This meant that production could increase more quickly than costs. It also contributed to employment showing fairly weak development over a long period, despite good growth. But more recently employment has increased, while productivity growth has been lower. We believe that the slower productivity growth is to some extent temporary. There can be several  BIS Review 132/2007  5  reasons for this. One reason is probably that new persons are being employed in the companies and that it quite simply takes time before they are fully productive. Another could be that new groups are entering the labour market. For instance, the service sector normally increases fairly late in an economic cycle and then the productivity measured is slightly weaker.
Project Greenprint aims to deploy technology at different stages of the supply chain to better monitor commitment to the relevant green standards and requirements. For example, Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices could be deployed on-site to directly capture and assess relevant real-time data, such as energy and water consumption, by borrowers, portfolio companies, and suppliers. Third, measure impact. Investors and financial institutions want to measure the impact generated from their investment and loans against their sustainability targets or goals. 9 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  Project Greenprint will explore the application of AI and other technologies on thirdparty data sources, such as ratings services and crowd-sourcing, to quantify the ESG impact of potential investments and loan portfolios. We will establish a consortium of financial institutions, FinTech firms, and industry players with expertise in Green FinTech to drive Project Greenprint. The consortium will help to identify specific use cases where technology can play a role in addressing the three pillars of Project Greenprint. We will be showcasing some of these use cases, as well as the potential solutions, during the Impact Summit tomorrow. MAS will earmark 20% of the Financial Sector Technology and Innovation budget, or $ million out of $ to support Green FinTech projects. The funding can be used to support proofs-of-concept, innovation labs, industry-wide utilities, and technology platforms focused on Green FinTech. Conclusion Let me end where I began. Rising inequality is the major fault line in many societies. Climate change is the existential challenge facing our planet.

Asia is at a different starting point from Europe – millions of people still do not have access to electricity. Fossil fuels are still the cheapest way to generate energy in many parts of Asia. Yet, there is scope for energy-efficient technologies and renewable energy solutions. Asia’s transition to sustainability will be progressive – through deeper shades of green. Let me describe three ways in which Singapore aims to support Asia’s transition towards greater sustainability: Asian Carbon Credit Market Green Finance Action Plan Green FinTech  Asian Carbon Credit Market Given Asia’s continued dependence on fossil fuels, an Asian carbon credit market must be part of the strategy to achieve both development and sustainability in Asia. Carbon credits are increasingly seen as a complement to firms’ de-carbonisation efforts. 6 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  Global demand for voluntary carbon credits is expected to grow 10 times over the next 10 years, from 100 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2019 to over 1 billion tonnes in 2030. But today, carbon credit markets are fragmented, liquidity is thin, and carbon prices vary across markets. We need global coordination to scale up the voluntary carbon credits markets. We need more high-quality carbon credits and more trading of such credits across borders to drive convergence towards a global price on carbon. We need to put in place infrastructure and data connectivity to ensure environmental integrity and avoid double counting of credits.
A single supervisor builds trust not only between supervisors, but also with shareholders and other stakeholders, including the fiscal authorities that, in the past, were too often assumed to be the shareholders of last resort of their national financial system. The importance of the SSM to uphold the single market serves as a reminder that the objective of having a robust supervisor is not just to make banks safe. The objective is to make banks safe so that they can safely access resources and use them to fund innovation, investment, and growth. Similarly, creating a single supervisor was not an objective per se. But it was necessary so that the integrity of the single banking market is not questioned. What I have said of banking can be extrapolated to other areas of finance, which is one reason why, alongside Banking Union, the Capital Markets Union, championed by Commissioner Hill, also needs to be implemented fully and as quickly as practical. I am not saying “as quickly as practical” for no reason. If we want to restore in Europe the stability that is the premise for a return to prosperity, we need to consider the economic costs entailed by recurrent uncertainty over the operating environment of European firms. Not only does it cause a loss of growth today, but by impeding investment, it may also weaken our potential in a more lasting way.

Transmission channels of the international crisis to the domestic economy Let me now review the various channels whereby we have been affected by the international crisis, which provides the necessary context to explain our policy decisions and the projections on our economy contained in this Report. The complex moment for the world economy has prompted, on one hand, a sharp fall in world demand for our exports; growth projections for Chile’s trading partners for the two-year period 2009-2010 went from an average of 1.6 percent in January to 0.3 percent in the baseline scenario in this Report, affecting the prices of the products we sell to the world. The terms of trade, as we had already anticipated in January, have seen a steep fall, hurting national disposable income. Nevertheless, the drop in commodity prices has had an immediate positive effect on household income, particularly through oil and other imported goods. 2  BIS Review 65/2009  Although some specific sectors are having difficulties placing their products abroad, the volume of Chilean exports, largely linked to natural resources, has not declined significantly. This reveals that price adjustments have permitted them to continue to be present in markets around the world. This is quite different from the realities of some manufactured goods exporters that have experienced sharp, severe and widespread downfalls. The figures show that the impact in terms of economic deceleration during the fourth quarter of last year was much more severe in those economies whose export basket is tilted towards durables (Figure 5).