samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Buffers to withstand shocks are strong – be it central banks’ reserves or banks’ capital adequacy. Second, ASEAN policymakers have demonstrated that they are able and willing to adjust policies to deal with external and internal stresses. They have raised interest rates pre-emptively. They have allowed their exchange rates to depreciate in an orderly manner, intervening in the FX markets only to moderate excessive movements. 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  And they have room to use fiscal policy to support growth, as debt positions are generally healthy. Take Indonesia for example. The currency has come under some pressure but the macroeconomic fundamentals are essentially sound. The economy is growing at a respectable 5%. Inflation is under control, at about 3.5% – an achievement compared to the past. The fiscal deficit has come down and is now about 2% of GDP – not an alarming number. Total debt-to-GDP ratio is 30% – a respectable number by any international comparison. The current account deficit has slipped somewhat but, at 3% of GDP, is not unduly large. And it is not unusual for a developing country to run a current account deficit to finance investment for future growth. And Indonesia’s policy responses to-date have demonstrated a willingness to take tough measures to build up resilience The central bank has hiked interest rates. The government has been re-evaluating import-intensive infrastructure spending. Markets can sometimes over-react and investors sell down EME assets in a general knee-jerk risk-off mood.

The US is of course the biggest export market in the world but total US imports account for only 3% of global GDP. Many other countries – especially in Emerging Asia – are trading among themselves without a nexus to the US. These trading linkages will grow over time as demand in these economies grows with a rising middle class, urbanisation, and investment in infrastructure. All the same, a prolonged period of trade tensions is not good for the global economy. The more serious casualty is perhaps not trade but investment. Corporates may scale back investment amidst uncertainty. This will reduce the productive capacity for future growth, delay technological upgrading, and compromise productivity growth. This is why the best response to unilateral trade restrictions is to push ahead with further trade liberalisation among other willing parties instead of retaliation and escalation. If countries do not retaliate against tariffs imposed by the US, the cost to their own 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  economies is likely to be contained. And a mutually damaging trade war would be averted. And this is what Emerging Asia is doing – liberalising trade within the region and with others. TPP-11 or Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) This will reduce barriers across economies with a GDP of $ trillion, roughly 13.5% of the world economy. It is expected to be ratified early next year. And five to six more countries have expressed interest in joining the CPTPP.
These new instruments should directly target the incentives to extend excessive credit. But there are a number of practical questions to answer before they can be implemented. Charles Bean concludes that it is a mistake to look for a single culprit. Just as in Agatha Christie’s Murder on the Orient Express, those with different motives but similar objectives can all contribute to the same outcome. The economics profession was one of those culprits and there are lessons for the discipline. It could incorporate psychology or behavioural economics into the study of financial markets but this may be unnecessary since much of the story can be explained using standard microeconomics. Economists should take more notice  BIS Review 101/2009  1  of history and not treat crises as pathologies that happen in other times or in other places but as a central feature of free-market economies that models should aspire to explain. Finally, macroeconomists have to learn how to put credit markets into their models in a meaningful way and which enable us to model shocks originating in the financial sector rather than just as an amplification mechanism. The Great Moderation, the Great Panic and the Great Contraction The past twenty-four months have been tumultuous for the global economy, for economic policy makers and, indeed, for the discipline of economics.

Similarly, the bank may be thought to be too important to be allowed to fail, in which case people might expect an injection of capital by the state to make good abnormal losses. In any of these cases, there is an incentive for the bank to raise leverage. Moreover, the lower is the perceived uncertainty associated with the loans, the more the bank can afford to leverage up, while maintaining the same uncertainty over the return on its capital. So the environment of the Great Moderation would have been particularly conducive to intermediaries increasing the leverage of their positions. The incentive distortions here are intrinsic to the process of financial intermediation. The next set of distortions is more specific to the present conjuncture and relates to securitisation. Securitisation is attractive because selling on the loans and the attendant risks enables a bank to leverage more loans off its capital. And, as noted earlier, such distribution of risks should in principle be beneficial for the economy. Unfortunately, it transpired that this model, or at least its application in the past few years, suffered from a number of incentive problems. First, there is the obvious one that if a loan originator can sell a loan on at par, then he has less incentive to take care who he lends to.
For all of these reasons, I do not fully understand the concept of separation, whereas I do understand that of stopping speculation. At the same time as bank failures are continuing, banks have obtained an easing of their liquidity constraints under Basel III. Isn’t this a paradox? That's not what it’s about. We have always believed that a liquidity ratio was necessary – and, incidentally, we have applied our national rules for many years, which is not the case everywhere. But the draft agreement was finalised too quickly and we had to rework it. We need to strike the right balance between strict regulation and supporting the financing of the economy. But will the timetable be put back? Yes, I am in favour of putting it back a bit, if necessary, in order to make these major tradeoffs and to give banks more time for the implementation phase so that they can adapt to the new standards. Should banks carry less sovereign debt? Banks should facilitate the financing of the economy; from this point of view, they should not hold huge quantities of sovereign bonds, even if these constitute liquid assets that are precious in assets and liabilities management. But the excessive concentration of liquid assets on sovereign debt in the calculation of the liquidity ratio can run into difficulties – either when the sovereign has its rating substantially downgraded or, on the contrary, when the country has low levels of debt, such as Australia or Switzerland.

They are based on spurious international comparisons since other central banks – such as the Bank of England – do not print their own banknotes, do not (yet) incorporate the banking supervisor and do not perform tasks such as the management of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  over indebtedness, which is entrusted to the Banque de France by law. More than 200,000 households debt applications processed every year is no mean feat! We have already made a great effort over the past few years as our staff levels have been cut by nearly 20% in ten years. And we will continue with this effect; but it is based on a detailed analysis of our activities and requires substantial investment in order to increase productivity. Our programme is ambitious but in keeping with the reality of the tasks we perform and respectful of our employees. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Efficiency is not satisfactory  This observation is particularly associated with the present lending arrangement with Norges Bank and its corresponding collateralisation. At present, all loans with Norges Bank must be covered by security. The last adjustment to this policy was made in September, when collateral requirements were introduced for F-loans as well. Following this change, we now have a system resembling those of many other countries, particularly in Europe. However, the government paper market in Norway is small compared with other countries - which is, for that matter, an advantage - but it also requires us to make better use of available collateral than other countries. When measured in October of this year, the ratio of total turnover to security furnished in the Norwegian settlement system was roughly 5.12 This is on a par with the situation in Stockholm, but far below London, where daily turnover is around GBP 125bn - with highs of almost twice that amount while collateral requirements are at a mere GBP 8bn, i.e. a ratio of about 16. When measured in this way, efficiency is thus at least three times greater in London than in Oslo or Stockholm - and we find nothing to indicate that the system in London is less secure. This indicates that there is room for improvement in the Norwegian system. What areas can we improve? First of all, the retail netting system. The present system is cumbersome and both banks and Norges Bank would like to see some changes.

Some form of unforeseen event, such as changes in regulations or macroeconomic shocks, would probably be necessary to cause prices to fall sharply. The fact that interest rates will rise in the long term should be included in household expectations and can hardly be regarded as an unforeseen event in any economic scenario. The market for apartment buildings has also been characterised by rising prices since 1994. Regulations such as those on utility value, and the system of central rent negotiations, normally leads to stable, even developments in the prices of apartment buildings. However, the conversion of rental properties into tenant-owner associations has resulted in recent years in relatively sharp price rises for apartment buildings. Price developments can, of course, be affected by changed conditions such as a substantial increase in new construction or a rapid decline in demand. However, a low level of housing construction and a high demand for housing, particularly in metropolitan regions, indicates that this will not be the case. Conclusion The Riksbank’s work on monetary policy and financial stability emphasises the importance of transparency, clarity and predictability. These are also important factors in the securities markets in which mortgage institutions are active. I hope that mortgage institutions’ own actions, coupled with the new legislation, will help to render the market for housing finance more efficient. BIS Review 35/2004  3
Also, the OTC derivatives business in foreign exchange, interest rate swaps and credit default swaps had exploded from its start in the early 1980s. The total notional value of the OTC derivatives outstanding for the five largest banks and securities firms currently totals about $ trillion. During this period, there was inadequate attention to the risks that were building up in the system. The regulatory and supervisory framework did not keep up with the changes in size, complexity, interconnectedness and globalization that created growing systemic risk externalities and widened the wedge between private and social costs in the event of failure. Let me mention just a few of the issues: •  Capital regulation was lax both in terms of the amount of capital required and the quality of that capital. As a result, many banks did not have the capacity to absorb large shocks and retain access to wholesale funding. •  The oversight of the largest securities firms was particularly deficient in terms of ensuring that these firms had sufficient private resources to deal with shocks. The industry was also particularly exposed because in the United States, there was (and remains) no lender of last resort backstop for the securities industry except in extremis.3  •  Although global integration brought with it a number of benefits, regulatory coordination did not keep pace with the globalization of financial firms and markets. This allowed the potential magnitude of the negative externalities associated with the failure of globally active firms to expand considerably.

While educated young people are moving abroad, I invite you to consider investments in technology, not only for the automation of processes, but also as an opportunity to prevent the impoverishment of the labour market, thus contributing to setting up conditions for keeping the qualified labour force in this market, which is also part of the elite clientele of the banking market. In conclusion, let me assure you that the Bank of Albania provides the maximum support and attention to all your proposals, not only in capacity of the regulatory authority, but also, as a loyal, supportive and serious partner, aiming at achieving the common objective, that is a developed market which offers attractive possibilities for investors, for financial stability and a fair competition which respect the consumer’s rights. Our decision-making will be transparent and all our initiatives will be guided by a spirit of cooperation with the banking sector, aiming at ensuring highest efficiency. Thank you for your attention! 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
And, fourth, to ensure that the scale of work on capital adequacy issues does not cause us to overlook the importance, either of liquidity management, or the development of a more robust market infrastructure in the maintenance of financial stability. 4  BIS Review 14/2003

As of now, we expect neither a recession nor a stagflation in Singapore next year. But there are considerable downside risks in the global economy which bear close watching. MULTI-PRONGED APPROACH TO INFLATION  Dealing effectively with inflation requires a multi-pronged approach. monetary policy to directly dampen inflation fiscal support to help vulnerable groups cope with inflation sound labour market adjustments to prevent inflation becoming entrenched  First, monetary policy to directly dampen inflation. Singapore’s monetary policy is centred on managing the exchange rate of the Singapore Dollar. When inflationary pressures build up, MAS allows the trade-weighted exchange rate to appreciate faster. A stronger exchange rate helps to directly reduce imported inflation as well as restrain export demand, providing relief to labour market pressures. MAS has been proactive in tightening monetary policy in response to rising inflationary pressures, tightening policy four times in the last nine months. In October 2021, MAS slightly increased the rate of appreciation of the trade-weighted exchange rate policy band as a pre-emptive move when core inflation picked up from 0.7% in Q2 2021 to 1.1% in July-August 2021. MAS was among the earlier central banks in the world to begin normalising monetary policy. In January 2022, MAS added slightly to the rate of appreciation of the policy band in an off-cycle move to lean against gathering inflation momentum. This was before the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine. In April 2022, MAS re-centred upwards the exchange rate policy band and further increased its rate of appreciation.
This would increase banks’ competitiveness through differentiation and customer service improvement, reduced transaction costs, better risk avoidance, and maintaining a stable customer base and market share. BIS Review 13/2008  7  10.2 It is possible to extend the capabilities of existing systems at a lower cost rather than by increasing mainframe capacities, if core banking and related legacy systems can be modernized by exploring a more service-oriented customer centric architecture. Discussions should be held with vendors and service providers to use Web service and service-oriented architecture that are technology and platform-neutral. Banks’ new IT strategy should not only be based on a customer centric approach but it should also enable transaction cost reduction, financial inclusion and speedy and efficient services to customers. Banks should also aim to pass on concessions and benefits that the government or regulators have given them, or at least share such benefits with customers. To make a real impact, banks should change their mind set, better utilize their IT human resources and capabilities and move towards more cost-effective common or shared IT platforms, which will help improve customer services and financial inclusion. Thank you. 8  BIS Review 13/2008

Jean-Pierre Roth: Fifteen months of financial crisis – a status report Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Associazione Bancaria Ticinese, Centro di Studi Bancari, Vezia, 3 December 2008. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The financial crisis broke out a little over fifteen months ago. The magnitude of the turmoil experienced by the financial industry has been greater than all the forecasts. So far, our entire attention has been focused on the problems of the financial industry, while the real economy appeared to be passing through this difficult period without too many problems. We now realise that this view was deceptive: the situation in the non-financial sector is deteriorating substantially. This could lead to new challenges in 2009. After having benefitted extensively from the international expansion of the past few years, we are currently experiencing the consequences of a widespread recession. This situation is difficult for our country, but we may be better placed than others for coping with it. BIS Review 150/2008  1
As history bears witness, such strategies are as good, but only as good, as the assumptions that are programmed in, be they about economic forecasts, covariances between various events, or whatever. But even if we felt that these particular strategies were foolproof, there are a myriad of other financial transactions which can only really be consummated by a conscious human decision. The home buyer faced with a choice between taking a mortgage from bank A or bank B is unlikely to have a sophisticated and reliable mathematical model with which to compare the offers and determine conclusively his choice. But the culture nowadays, bred at least in part by the technological feasibilities of the IT era, is one which is likely to place the home buyer under much greater pressure to reach a quick decision than his parents would have been a generation ago, or even his brother five years ago, for fear of losing the best offer - if only he could assess which was the best. There is less time to reflect; less time to seek out disinterested advice. There are of course some areas of finance which appear relatively untouched as yet by this revolution. In the realm of corporate finance, in every jurisdiction so far as I am aware, the documents seeking shareholder support for a merger, for example, are still required to be sent by post, and with a reasonable minimum notice period for response.

While BAME representation at senior levels has increased from 2% to 5% since 2013, we still have some way to go to meet our ambitious target of 13% by 2022. The Bank’s experience is consistent with that of other organisations as documented by “The Middle” (a thorough, evidence-based research report on progressing BAME Talent in the Workplace commissioned by the Black British Business Awards).3 This study concluded that across organisations the challenges were greatest in retaining and promoting ethnic minority professionals from middle management to senior executive roles. We’re pleased that the changes the Bank is already making are consistent with the report’s recommendations. To maintain momentum, the Bank recently created a BAME Diversity Taskforce, chaired by Deputy Governor Sir Dave Ramsden and attended by members of both Court and our BEEM network. This Taskforce is now focusing on: First, supporting the progression of BAME colleagues to leadership roles by rolling out inclusive leadership training for all colleagues and having all senior management including the Bank’s Governors participate in our Sponsorship programmes and mentoring schemes. Second, supporting our ethnic minorities network (BEEM), which has achieved much since its foundation in 2012. This includes implementing reciprocal mentoring of 150 of our BAME colleagues each year. BEEM has also set up, with HR, the Bank's African/ African-Caribbean scholarship programme. Launched in 2015, we have awarded 10 scholarships and 8 bursaries to talented students studying a range of subjects from Chemical Engineering to Politics and International Relations.
8 Let me conclude with some remarks on the ongoing process of significant market correction that global finance is experiencing since several months, with its episodes of high market volatility and financial turbulences. The last G7 meeting in Tokyo was a good occasion to exchange views on the underlying causes of the recent turbulences and on the areas where significant improvements will have to be brought about in global finance. The communiqué of the G7 that Ministers and Governors signed captures pretty well the large consensus we have at present on both the methodology and the six domains where we agree action will be necessary. This large consensus is very important because the challenges that we have to cope with are global and the solutions themselves can be nothing but global and very closely harmonised between the economies that are making up the global economy. I think particularly of the two vast continental economies that are on both sides of the Atlantic. On top of stressing the absolute necessity to work very actively, and very united together, to draw the right lessons from the present market correction – which, according to our agreed methodology, we will do when receiving the definitive report of the Financial Stability Forum on the occasion of the next spring meetings of the Bretton Woods Institutions in Washington – I will make three remarks. First, the international community is able to produce a right and pertinent diagnosis of the global finance’s situation.

But it certainly shows this can be done, with great efficiency, by proper internal adjustment. Second, both aggregate and country-based data do not point to widespread and inevitable unsustainability in peripheral Europe. The euro area’s aggregate budget deficit will stand around 4.1% in 2011, less than half that of the UK or the US. The same holds true for public debt, which amounts 85% in the euro area while it will soon cross the 100% mark in the US. The euro area is also the only major currency union with its external accounts in balance, which is an essential element of robustness and a strong guarantee of long-term solvency. Peripheral countries are also improving their fundamentals. The primary deficit of Spain for 2011 will be around 4.7%, half that of the US and the UK. Italy will be one of the very few advanced economies to have a primary surplus, around 0.5%. Both countries announced and adopted major fiscal consolidation and structural reform plans aimed at balancing their budget by 2013. Ireland provides the perfect example that a country with very high deficit and interest rates can reverse the trend if it makes the necessary efforts. The Irish deficit will fall from 32% in 2010 to around 10% in 2011, exceeding the requirements of the EU-IMF programme. At the same time, growth is back and will probably be around 2% this year. The third issue is more subtle. It relates to solvency and liquidity.