samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Going forward, activity will grow above potential over the next two years and inflation will converge to 3% during 2020. The beginning of the MPR normalization will depend on our conviction that inflation is in a clear process of convergence to 3%. Especially important for this evaluation will be the way the labor market absorbs the strong immigration flow, the response of investment and external developments. At the same time, there are important risks around these projections. Let me now describe this scenario and associated risks. II. Macroeconomic scenario  II.1. Recent evolution of activity and inflation In the first quarter this year, activity grew 1.6% annually, which combined a 3.6% fall in the mining sector and a 2.2% increase in the non-mining sectors (Figure 1). The high basis for comparison of the same period in 2018 anticipated that first-quarter growth this year would underperform that of 2018, but the result was lower than expected. This combined the negative performance of mining—affected by climatic factors, downtime at some mines and the lower ore—and several of the more volatile sectors—linked to natural resources—of non-mining GDP. In particular, the worse-than-expected performance of agriculture, fishing, and electricity, gas and water stood out. Most of the non-mining sectors whose activity is more related to demand behaved in line with expectations, particularly construction and services. One exception was the export industry, which combined high bases for comparison, weak demand from its target markets—mainly Latin America—and stronger competition abroad.

In less than half a year, we have raised the ECB interest rates by 250 basis points, the fastest increase in our history. And we have made it clear that ECB interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive, and stay at those levels for as long as necessary. In other words, we will stay the course to ensure the timely return of inflation to our target. Conclusion Let me conclude. The transition from one year to the next is traditionally associated with quiet reflection, when we take stock of things that have come to pass. But as the poet Rainer Maria Rilke once wrote: a new year is “full of things that have never been”. As we head into 2023, a changing world brings with it new challenges, but also opportunities. And let there be no doubt: with more self-confidence, more assertiveness and the right policies in place fuelling green and digital growth, Europe can adapt and thrive. But some things never change: namely, the ECB’s commitment to price stability. We will play our part in Europe’s next chapter by bringing inflation back to our 2% target. Thank you. 1. See Lagarde, C. (2022), “A new global map: European resilience in a changing world”, keynote speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, 22 April. 2. Lagarde, C. (2021), “Globalisation after the pandemic”, Per Jacobsson Lecture at the IMF Annual Meetings, 16 October. 3.
Having a common survey instrument would promote benchmarking of, and accountability for, progress on culture and behavior. A core element of any firm’s mission and culture must be a respect for law. Federal Reserve guidance advises that banks should strive to “[m]aintain a corporate culture that emphasizes the importance of compliance with laws and regulations and consumer protection.” 4 To maintain such a culture, senior leaders must promote effective self-policing. If audit uncovers an instance of fraud in one unit, the firm’s leadership should ask, “Where else could this behavior occur?” If the press reports fraud at a competitor in a particular business line, the same self-assessment should apply. “Could this happen to us, could we have a similar problem here?” When fraud is detected, boards and senior leaders must ensure that they are informed promptly, and that a thorough inquiry is undertaken at once. The senior leaders of financial firms, and those who report to them, must also be proactive in reporting illegal or unethical activity. Early self-reporting sends a powerful message to employees and to regulators about a firm’s respect for law. This is one important reason why those who selfreport in a timely way should be treated preferentially, compared to those that drag their feet and whose bad behaviors are only uncovered by enforcement investigations. How will a firm know if it is making real progress? Not having to plead guilty to felony charges or being assessed large fines is a good start.

Another important element affecting culture has been the shift in the prevailing business model away from traditional commercial and investment banking activities to trading; that is, from client-oriented to transaction-oriented activities. Clients became counterparties – the other side of a trade – rather than partners in a long-term business relationship. In general, interactions became more depersonalized, making it easier to rationalize away bad behavior, and more difficult to identify who would be harmed by any unethical actions. High-powered pay incentives linked to short-term profits, combined with a flexible and fluid job market, have also contributed to a lessening of firm loyalty – and, sometimes, to a disregard for the law – in an effort to generate larger bonuses. Often allegiance to an external network of traders has been more important than the ties the trader has to his or her particular employer. This is particularly evident in the illegal manipulations of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), and with respect to reference rates in the foreign exchange markets. Although cultural and ethical problems are not unique to the finance industry, financial firms are different from other firms in important ways. First, the financial sector plays a key public role in allocating scarce capital and exerting market discipline throughout a complex, global economy. For the economy to achieve its long-term growth potential, we need a sound and vibrant financial sector. Financial firms exist, in part, to benefit the public, not simply their shareholders, employees and corporate clients.
The Albanian economy is estimated to have grown below its potential in 2012. Recent economic and monetary data confirm, overall, our earlier assessment for the presence of a negative output gap. On the demand side, economic growth was driven mainly by net exports growth, whereas domestic demand is estimated to have provided low contribution. Data on trade in goods during the fourth quarter show that exports increased 12% and imports fell 9.5%, year on year. Subsequently, the nominal trade deficit narrowed 20.1%, in annual terms, boosting aggregate demand in this quarter. On its side, domestic demand remains weak, due to consumers and businesses hesitation to consume and invest. Lending standards continue to be tight as banks are more prudent about lending. Budget expenditure fell about 0.3%, year on year, owing mainly to contracting capital expenditure. Collected revenue was also downward, eventually reducing the budget deficit by 1.2% compared to 2011. However, the fiscal policy was stimulating during the fourth quarter, materialising in 35% expansion of the budget deficit for this period. Though at low rates, public expenditure is expected to have positive contribution to economic activity in 2013. The monetary policy eased further in January, through the key interest rate cut to the record low of 3.75%. The easing was transmitted into the interbank market interest rates during February, while it is expected to be transmitted into other segments of the financial market. Low government demand for borrowing has exercised downward pressures on government securities yield.

Jean-Pierre Roth: The current economic and monetary policy situation Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Centro di Studi Bancari, Vezia, 17 September 2007. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  It is difficult to determine to what extent the turmoil in the US sub-prime mortgage market impacts on the real economy. It has hit Switzerland at a time when our economy is in enviably good shape. Should the situation in the financial markets not deteriorate any further, it is hard to imagine these factors abruptly slowing economic growth. With its decision to let the Libor slide back towards 2.75% in the short term, the SNB has clearly signalled to the markets an easing of the situation. In Switzerland, price stability has been maintained for the past 13 years, economic growth is significantly higher than in the 1990s and our unemployment rate is the lowest of all industrialised countries. It is our goal to preserve this favourable situation. BIS Review 102/2007  1
Unbalanced recovery of the world economy We observe that the global recovery is very dissimilar between advanced and emerging economies. The US, Europe and Japan are growing slowly and have high levels of idle capacity and unemployment. The financial crisis has caused them lasting damage in the 1  balance sheets of consumers, banks and governments that will take years to heal. Most likely, their demands will continue to grow slowly. Recent financial turbulences in Europe confirm this scenario. This situation contrasts with growth in Latin America and emerging Asia. In the past year, these economies have grown above trend, thanks to still expansionary macroeconomic policies, increased external funding available and, in our region, improved terms of trade. Output gaps are near exhaustion and policy-makers are withdrawing their stimulus to demand in order to avoid an inflationary resurgence and generate a sustainable growth path. The main projections of the world economy foresee that this disparity between emerging and advanced economies will go on for the next two years. These aspects will be addressed in more detail next week when we present our December 2010 Monetary Policy Report. The real issue here is that the recovery of the developed world will not hold if it happens at the expense of repeating the current account deficits of the pre-crisis years. A recomposition of global demand is necessary. The crisis has left an excess of savings in the world that drives down the international real interest rate.

At the country level, however, it must be said that production, employment, wages and investment are growing strongly. Our economy is totally back on its feet after the global recession and the outlook is good. 5  I am convinced that our country must grow in a harmonious way and the benefits of progress must spread to all the country. Economic growth and global integration generate sectoral and regional adjustments; some economic activities expand and some contract, with all the associated tensions. This is what progress is all about. To mitigate the costs of sectoral adjustments – and, above all, the social costs involved – without hurting economic growth, public policies face a tremendous challenge, but the instruments with macroeconomic reach such as the exchange rate are ineffective when it comes to resolving sectoral difficulties. Next week we will be presenting our Monetary Policy Report. We hope that our economy will continue dynamic over the next 24 months, boosting higher income and employment for our people. Our role is to ensure that the process is sustainable in an environment of stable prices. We will watch over it taking every measure necessary. In this presentation I have shown all the factors that may explain parity adjustments. However, many of the elements now pressuring the exchange rate may be reversed in the long term. As a matter of fact, today the real exchange rate is around the minimum levels believed to be consistent with its long-term fundamentals, hence the importance we assign to this issue.
These arrangements, including senior level groups for coordination in and out of crisis – Cross Market Business Continuity Group (CMBCG) and Cross Market Operational Resilience Group (CMORG) respectively, are tested periodically to work through how the system would function in the face of particular types of shock or the loss of key systems. By definition, crisis events are unpredictable but regular exercising helps to establish common reflexes that will manage the consequences of a major operational disruption, including aspects that may not have been foreseen. Having set out the context and described our interest in operational resilience, let me turn now to cyber. It is one shock among many that could result in operational disruption. But cyber has specific characteristics that differentiate it from other threats to operational resilience. First it is not a game against nature. There are groups out there that are motivated to attack the sector. For most, the motivation is economic; that accounts for the rise in fraud. But there are actors out there, sometimes state-sponsored, who may be motivated to bring systems down and cause harm to the sector. Second it is adaptive and changing. Attackers do not stand still. Attack types are constantly evolving and readily scalable. In the cyber arms race, costs are stacked in favour of the attacker, not the defender. Organisations cannot rely on building a hard perimeter. They too need to develop defensive capability that is adaptive and invest in threat intelligence to understand potential attackers and attack types. Third detection is not easy.

This is why the FPC has replaced its existing cyber recommendation with  5  For more detail see http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2015/speech792.pdf. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  a recommendation targeted at completing the current set of CBEST tests and making them a regular part of supervision. The FPC has now recommended that the Bank, PRA and FCA “work with firms at the core of the UK financial system to ensure that they complete CBEST tests and adopt individual cyber resilience action plans. The Bank, PRA and FCA should also establish arrangements for CBEST tests to become one component of regular cyber resilience assessment within the UK financial system.” In response, following on from the FPC’s recommendation, the Bank will therefore: •  Seek to embed CBEST within our supervisory framework;  •  Undertake a broad, joint work programme with the FCA and HMT to enable the FPC to consider whether additional action is needed to address cyber risk. Both to improve ex ante cyber resilience in firms and ex post responsiveness; and  •  Ensure the framework for cyber resilience is both alive to the special features that cyber possesses but is also joined-up with our approach to deliver operational resilience of the sector more generally. And of course with all of this, we know that cyber knows no borders. Hence the importance of continued cooperation with our international counterparts. At the beginning of this speech, I set out the Olympian view of the threat cyber poses and its broader context i.e.
I consider that a clear but, at the same time, flexible framework for macroprudential supervision will create the best conditions to counteract future financial crises. But this is not to say that this would be enough to ensure that no financial crisis ever occurs again. The crises of tomorrow will probably have completely different causes to the crises of yesterday, making them difficult to protect ourselves against. However, the scale of the costs of a financial crisis justify making every effort to protect ourselves. As regards the question of where responsibility for macroprudential policy ought to lie, it is clear that this area is closely linked to both the Riksbank’s and Finansinspektionen’s activities. The Riksbank has been analysing the stability of the financial system for fifteen years and also currently provides recommendations for safeguarding it in its Financial Stability Reports. Finansinspektionen also works for the stability of the financial system but with a focus on individual institutions. The competence and experience of both authorities will have to be utilised if macroprudential policy is to be effective in Sweden. While awaiting a more long-term solution for Swedish macroprudential supervision, the Riksbank and Finansinspektionen have set up a temporary council for cooperation. In addition to consulting and exchanging information on assessments of risks and possible countermeasures, one task of the council is to discuss the development of instruments and methods within macroprudential supervision. The joint communication of our assessments in connection with this council for cooperation is a benefit in itself.

In the same year, BNM was also the first Asian central bank to become a QFII investor and among the first wave of foreign investors in CIBM. In 2010, the Malaysian ringgit became the first emerging currency to be directly traded with the renminbi in the China Foreign Exchange Trading System (CFETS). In 2013, BNM signed a CrossBorder Collateral Arrangement (CBCA) with PBC to enable the use of home currency collateral to obtain domestic liquidity in the host country. In November 2014, BNM signed an MOU on a renminbi clearing bank arrangement. The Bank of China Malaysia was appointed as the renminbi clearing bank in January 2015. Going forward, BNM will work towards further enhancing financial co-operation with PBC in the area of Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) to provide an alternative avenue for Malaysian investors to invest in onshore Chinese financial markets. BNM has also worked to integrate the renminbi into the domestic financial system by incorporating the renminbi in Malaysia’s Real Time Gross Settlement System (RENTAS). In November 2013, BNM introduced the Renminbi Liquidity Facility (RLF) to licensed onshore banks to facilitate more effective renminbi liquidity management in Malaysia. Today, the usage of renminbi in Malaysia has grown rapidly, with the daily size of renminbi foreign exchange volume at RMB6.7 billion. Malaysian institutions and corporations such as Khazanah, Cagamas, Axiata and Maybank have issued renminbi bonds.
The second example I would like to mention here is the introduction of the minimum exchange rate in September 2011. This rate was introduced to correct a massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc arising from adverse developments on the foreign exchange market, and thereby avert the threat of a deflationary trend. I have explained to you why this instrument is still needed and is being enforced by us without any restriction. A measure like the minimum exchange rate can only succeed if the central bank is totally credible, in other words, if people believe it will actually defend the rate, if need be. Words can certainly achieve a great deal in the financial markets. But this only holds true if they are followed up with deeds when necessary. In the case of the minimum exchange rate, the deeds in question are unlimited foreign currency market interventions. In 2012, we were required to enforce the minimum exchange rate with extensive foreign currency purchases, and our balance sheet total increased significantly. If there were statutory restrictions on our balance sheet we would be unable to introduce and enforce a measure of this kind. The financial markets would call into question both our resolve and our ability to see the measure through. Concluding remarks Ladies and gentlemen, I come to my concluding remarks. Even seven years after the onset of the financial crisis, the environment remains very challenging for our economy and for Swiss monetary policy.

By contrast, interest rate increases could become necessary again in a number of emerging economies, to prevent further depreciation of their currencies and counter high inflation. As you can see from this list of items, unfortunately the risks for economic growth have not diminished. The European crisis may have become somewhat less virulent, but it has not been overcome. Moreover, additional uncertainties have emerged and the Swiss franc is still high. Overall, the environment remains extremely challenging for both the Swiss economy and our monetary policy. Outlook for Switzerland in 2014 I will now look at developments in Switzerland. In 2013, our economy did quite well, primarily as a result of stable domestic demand. This year we are expecting the economy to maintain a similar momentum, driven by domestic demand as well as, increasingly, by foreign demand. Thus the global economy will supply positive growth impetus, which will assist export industries, in particular. Accordingly, production capacity utilisation is expected to be higher and companies should see further improvement in their financial situation. Given this situation, investment looks set to regain momentum. During the months ahead, unemployment is likely to decline slightly. However, this essentially positive scenario is associated with external risks which I have already outlined. Furthermore, the popular federal initiative approved in February to curb 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  immigration represents an additional element of uncertainty as far as the economy is concerned.
The US dollar has remained the main international currency, as a result of the predominance of US financial markets and also the inability of several emerging economies to pursue independent policies (for example by de-pegging their currencies from the US dollar). But there is little reason to believe that these factors will not change over time. The renminbi, in particular, should be in a position to relatively quickly emancipate itself from the dollar and become a major international currency if the Chinese authorities were to consistently pursue capital account liberalisation, greater exchange rate flexibility and all related policy measures in the years to come. The international role of some other emerging market currencies is also likely to increase over time. We are clearly moving towards a multipolar currency world. The question is whether the euro will be one of the poles – so to speak – of the new system. I will not dwell on the advantages for Europe of being one of the poles, but rather I invite you to reflect upon what would happen if it were not. To be sure, the euro, like any other currency, would be affected by economic and political developments in the countries issuing the leading reserve currencies, and would suffer severely from external shocks. Consider, as an illustration, the recent experience of the Swiss franc, a currency which is renowned for its stability.

In addition to voting, we engage in dialogue with management teams in a number of companies. We must remember that when we point a finger at a company, we are also pointing a finger at the laws, regulations and practices of the countries where the company legally operates. We make demands, yet we are at the same time a guest in our neighbour’s house. Excessive activism in other countries may defeat its own purpose. Scepticism towards foreign investors, and in particular towards large sovereign funds, is not an unfamiliar phenomenon. We could risk being perceived as a political fund rather than a financial investor. We have therefore chosen ethical guidelines and corporate governance principles that are based on OECD and UN principles. 31 Our experience is that the fund is perceived as a welcome financial investor – not as a political player. Former South African central bank governor Tito Mboweni told me he preferred investments by the oil fund to development assistance. “Assistance means you feel sorry for us,” he said to me, “investment means you believe in us.” 32 Conclusion The larger the visible wealth is, the greater becomes the risk that sound management principles are relegated to the background. Both John Collett and Gunter Sachs had considerable wealth, and spent it generously all their lives. At the same time, both were interested in developing more permanent values through research.