samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This development, coupled with the ample and low-cost liquidity injected to the market in line with expansionary fiscal and monetary policies on a worldwide scale, underpinned optimism in global financial markets and led to continued demand for risky assets. Accordingly, risk premium indicators in most developing countries remained lower than pre-crisis levels (Figure 19). As you will recall, on several occasions we have mentioned that Turkey’s sovereign credit rating in the post-crisis period was not commensurate with the actual credit risk level in the market. Actually, in the last quarter of the year, consistent with our discourse and projections, the medium and long-term forecasts for Turkey have been revised to positive; several investment institutions have increased Turkey’s share in their portfolio, and, more importantly, the leading credit rating agencies have upgraded Turkey’s sovereign rating (Figure 20). 8  BIS Review 31/2010  The improvement in global risk perceptions in the last quarter led to the appreciation of local currencies of many developing countries. A similar trend was observed in Turkey too and the relatively stable course of the Turkish lira continued in the last quarter (Figure 21). Distinguished Members of the Press, The third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) release was in line with the outlook presented in the October Inflation Report. While the impact of the fiscal stimulus package on domestic demand weakened, the gradual recovery in external demand continued. Within this framework, the GDP decreased by 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2009 compared to the same quarter last year (Figure 22).

Therefore, a more appropriate solution would be for them to be able to transfer the ownership of their assets in exchange for debt repayment with the option to repurchase those assets back at a later date. As such, this scheme will remove debt burdens that would incur otherwise if they still have to hold onto the assets and loans. These examples provide some concrete illustrations of how we, at the Bank of Thailand, have tried to respond flexibly and pragmatically to the changing circumstances of the COVID-19 crisis. Part 3: Future Plans Let me now turn to the third part of my remarks today, which is what is next? One thing that we would like to do is a move from short-term and blanket measures such as a debt moratorium to longer-term and more targeted solutions such as debt restructuring. Moratoria are good responses to something that is short, severe and broad. However, as we have seen in discussing the economic outlook, this crisis is likely to be long. The recovery is likely to be very uneven, thereby requiring a longer-term and more targeted approach. Hence, we would like to encourage a move from a solution of having debt moratoria in response to waves of infections that are causing a lockdown to more lasting solutions such as debt restructuring. On this light, we have recently announced a series of initiatives and regulatory incentives to encourage banks to undertake debt restructuring, which is important as a lasting solution to the problems that we are facing.
Ravi Menon: Basics for smart finance – common standards and seamless data Closing remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the SIBOS Conference, Singapore, 15 October 2015. *  *  *  Mr Yawar Shah, Chairman, SWIFT Mr Gottfried Leibbrandt, CEO, SWIFT Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. A. Revolution in communications  “What hath God wrought?” read the first telegraphic message sent by Samuel Morse on 24th May, 1844. The telegraph marked a revolution in communications at the time. •  Transatlantic telegraph cables cut communications between America and Europe from about 10 days – the time it took for steam ships to sail across the Atlantic – to a matter of minutes. •  In fact, the mid-19th century leaps in transport and communications technologies ushered in the first phase of economic and financial globalisation. Ground-breaking as the telegraph was, a text message that takes minutes to arrive will be considered glacial by today’s standards. It will certainly not be able to support the frenetic pace of communications in the global financial system. Thankfully, we have SWIFT. Last year, there were 5.6 billion messages carried globally on SWIFT’s network. •  Close to half the messages related to international payments, which lies at the heart of global banking. •  Technology has transformed cross-border finance. Smart Financial Centre It is MAS’s conviction that innovation and technology will be critical to the future growth and success of Singapore’s financial sector.

As part of the Committee’s general efforts in recent years to enhance its relationships with supervisory agencies outside its member countries, the AIG has itself begun a dialogue with other supervisory agencies. In fact, based on the AIG’s early discussions, the Committee published a paper in August on the “high level principles for the cross-border implementation of the New Accord”. In this document, we reiterate our view that home and host supervisors will retain their traditional responsibilities in regulating internationally active banks under the New Accord. Nonetheless, the revised capital framework will require an even higher level of cooperation among supervisors. Let me mention areas such as the initial approval and validation of “advanced” approaches to credit and operational risk under Pillar 1; the supervisory review process under Pillar 2; and ongoing assessments of compliance with the requirements for the use of “advanced” approaches. Although supervisors must make practical arrangements to carry out these responsibilities, the Committee wishes to implement the New Accord in a manner that strengthens the quality of supervision across all countries. Moreover, we recognise the special role we can play in helping to ensure that all host supervisors, and especially those from emerging market countries, are able to supervise the local operations of foreign banks effectively. We will continue to work with emerging market supervisors and the World Bank and IMF, as well as with the Financial Stability Institute and others to exchange ideas on ways to strengthen the regulation of both domestic and internationally active banks.
Possible explanations: risk premia Another vantage point can be gained from decomposing changes in the level of the equity market into changes in (estimates of) the risk-free rate, projected earnings growth, and the equity risk premium8. For both the FTSE100 and the S&P, this suggests that the decline in real rates has been an important driver of the rise in the equity market since the early 1990s, but that the market is not materially more sensitive to changes in real rates now than it was on average over the past 15-20 years (Chart 2). This may be because, as part of better monetary policy regimes, risk-free real rates have been slightly less  5  See Woodford, M., 2003, ‘Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy’, Princeton University Press, Chapter 7; Tucker P M W (2006), ‘Reflections on operating inflation targeting’, speech at the Chicago Graduate School of Business, May 2005, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin Summer 2006, page 217. 6  Rogoff, K. (2006), 'Impact of Globalization on Monetary Policy, paper prepared for a symposium on 'The New Economic Geography: Effects and Policy Implications', Jackson Hole Wyoming August 2006. 7  As for the volatility in individual-firm equity returns, some extreme episodes aside (for example, the 1987 Crash), the firmspecific component inevitably dominates. For the UK market, the common component seems to have fallen slightly, on average, since 1992. The idiosyncratic component rose during the second half of the 1990s, but then fell back.

Paul Tucker: Macro, asset price, and financial system uncertainties Text of the Roy Bridge Lecture delivered by Mr Paul Tucker, Executive Director Markets and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, at the Bank of England, London, 11 December 2006. *  *  *  It is a great privilege to give this lecture, named in honour of Roy Bridge, for many years a very distinguished head of foreign exchange at the Bank of England and the first President of your association, the ACI. The world in which Bridge worked was so very different from ours that, although my responsibilities cover the same part of the Bank, I cannot really imagine what he would have made of three striking features of the current environment which I plan to review this evening. First, while monetary authorities are commonly given some of the credit for the return of macroeconomic stability, central bankers themselves devote a great deal of effort to conveying what they see as risks to the outlook. Second, while some distinguished commentators see a puzzle in lower macro volatility not having been matched by an equally large decline in asset price volatility, central bankers by contrast worry publicly that many financial asset prices imply unusually low future volatility. And third, while central bankers and others in the official sector celebrate the gains in risk transfer and efficiency brought by recent changes in the structure of the financial system, they also issue warnings about associated threats to systemic stability.
After the licensing of Popular Bank, with Albanian capital, the number of banks increased from 15 to 16, and a preliminary license is granted to Union Bank (Albanian capital), which is expected to raise the number of banks to 17 over 2005. The system assets have further increased by 14 percent while there was an increase of banking products and an expansion of their network. During this year there will be sold the public shares of both the Italian Albanian Bank and United Bank of Albania, which will lead to an increase of effectiveness and banking competition, paving the way to the processes of selling, merging and acquisitions towards a new consolidation of the banking system. The lending activity increased by 38 percent where one can distinguish, inter alia, the significant growth of medium-term and long-term loans compared to short-term loans. The map of coverage of the country with the banking system has further expanded, including new areas ever covered before. At the end of 2004, the total number of branches reached 88, or 11 branches more that the end of the previous year, while the number of agencies recorded for the first time a full three-digit number, 100 and the number of the employed people increased by 26 percent. The high increase of the number of branches relative to that of agencies shows that banks are not interested only in providing the service of collecting deposits but also in providing other products like crediting to the economy.

See Lipsey, R and Lancaster, K (1956), “The general theory of the second best”, Review of Economic Studies, 24(1). 8  Arrow, K and Debreu, (1954), “Existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy”, Econometrica, 22 (3). 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Then they can trade contracts and insure each other against risks they are unwilling to bear. A moment of introspection reveals the absurdity of these assumptions as a description of the actual world. More often than not, even describing the universe of possible outcomes is beyond the means of the mere mortal, let alone ascribing subjective probabilities to those outcomes. That is genuine uncertainty, as opposed to risk, a distinction made by Frank Knight in the 1920s. 9 And it means that market outcomes reflect individual choices made under a pretence of knowledge. The swings in sentiment that result – pessimism one moment, exuberance the next – don’t reflect nature’s odds, but our own assessments of them, inevitably distorted by Keynesian “animal spirits”. 10 In the end, belief in the second lie that “markets always clear” meant that policymakers didn’t play their proper roles in moderating those tendencies in pursuit of the collective good. Lie III: “Markets are moral” Despite these shortcomings, well-managed markets can be powerful drivers of prosperity. By financing firms to hire, invest and expand, they drive growth. By opening up cross-border trade and investment they create new opportunities for businesses and savers.
The most important source of measurement errors is probably the difficulty of distinguishing between changes in the quality and price of goods. In other countries, findings show that the consumer price index overestimates actual inflation to the order of ½-1 per cent. The conduct of monetary policy Norges Bank normally sets the interest rate with a view to attaining an inflation rate of 2½ per cent two years ahead. If demand for goods and services is high and there is a shortage of labour, there will normally be prospects of higher inflation. When the interest rate is raised, demand is dampened and inflation is kept in check. If demand is low and unemployment rises, there will be prospects of lower inflation. The interest rate will then be lowered. The inflation target thus represents a framework, not an obstacle, for monetary policy to contribute to stability in output and employment. In the long run, output is determined by the supply of labour and capital and adaptability, but in the short and medium term monetary policy can also have an impact on the real economy. Norges Bank operates a flexible inflation targeting regime, so that weight is given to variability in output and employment and inflation. The economy grows over time. Output will in periods lie below trend growth and in others above trend. Stabilising output growth means that one seeks to maintain actual output near trend. 6  BIS Review 11/2004  Chart 8. Mainland GDP In billions of NOK.

Growth in Continental Europe, which is highly reliant on impetus from exports, may weaken markedly if the dollar continues to fall. Chart 15. Mainland GDP and employment Annual growth. Per cent 6  6 GDP  4  4  2  2  0  0 Employment  -2  -2 1990  1992  1994  1996  1998  2000  2002  2004  Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank  BIS Review 11/2004  11  Norway, like other countries, experienced a period of strong expansion in the 1990s. The expansion in Norway lasted considerably longer than in other countries. In 1998, the economy shifted from an upturn with high growth rates to an expansion with lower growth but low unemployment, labour shortages in many sectors and strong growth in labour costs. Wage developments culminated in the spring of 2002 and the expansion was reversed in the second half of the year. Growth came to a halt and employment fell. A number of factors triggered this development. Higher wage costs weakened the purchasing power of public entities. Global stagnation had a dampening impact on Norwegian exports. In Norway, the interest rate was kept high after the wage settlement and a persistent, unexpected low level of interest rates abroad resulted in a strong krone. The sharp rise in electricity prices last winter also affected the domestic economy. Chart 16.
What objectives should a central bank have? The most fundamental question to ask when one is on the point of reforming the monetary policy framework is, of course, what the objective of monetary policy should be. On a very general level the objective of monetary policy can be said to be to create an environment where the economy can develop in the best possible manner. However, this definition is too general to be of any great practical use, although it excludes some tasks that are sometimes imposed on central banks. To obtain a more operational definition, it is necessary to take the discussion one step further and ask the question of how monetary policy can contribute to favourable economic development. On a fundamental plane, one could say that the central bank’s main task should be to ensure that the payment system in the economy functions efficiently. This means in simple terms that payments and financial transactions can be made easily and smoothly and entail as little risk as possible. Many scholars also regard this as the main reason why central banks were originally founded. 1 An economy’s payment system can be regarded as a sort of infrastructure in roughly the same way as the country’s communications network or energy supply system. It also essentially fulfils the same purpose, i.e. to ensure that the flows essential to the economy – in this case the flow of money – functions properly.

Inflation targeting is thus much more demanding than a fixed exchange rate regime with regard to the central bank’s analytical work and its ability to communicate its policy. Whether this is something that should be regarded as a disadvantage or not is of course a question of judgement. For the Riksbank, the transition to inflation targeting heralded the start of a fairly comprehensive increase in competence in the field of economics. The number of PhD economists at the Riksbank has risen sharply in recent years and our research in areas related to monetary policy has expanded considerably. Financial stability Let me now move on to the other central component of an efficient payment system. This concerns the stability in the financial system; particularly in the financial institutions that supply payment services, i.e. primarily the banks. Financial stability is currently regarded, parallel to the price stability target, as the main task of a modern central bank. The financial system has essentially three main tasks: converting savings into financing, managing risk and providing efficient channels of payment. Let me give a basic example. A bank receives savings from households which it then lends to other households or to companies that need to invest. Banks are specialists at valuing, monitoring and managing credit risks in the households and companies to which they lend.
The spread of certain fund management techniques, in particular index management, which has proven very popular on equity markets, may have contributed to amplifying movements in financial asset prices. This technique endeavours to match as accurately as possible developments in stock market benchmark indices. It therefore mechanistically leads managers to accentuate current price trends by buying stocks that are on the rise and selling those that are falling. It can be argued that  2  BIS Review 54/2001  index funds distort the price of the targeted indexes and that, as a result, the indices might end up creating rather than measuring performance. The impact of risk management techniques on market dynamics is particularly enlightening with regard to the question of asset price overshooting. Value-at-risk calculations have become a crucial element of the standards approach used by market participants to evaluate the risk inherent in their market activities and set up exposure limits. Of course, central banks and financial institutions should continue to encourage the use of these instruments. But, in times of financial turmoil, the growing use of homogeneous risk management techniques by financial intermediaries has had the paradoxical effect of amplifying the initial shock and the spill-over effect. Regardless of the intrinsic qualities of these risk management tools, their growing use may have produced some adverse consequences. When market players rely on converging risk evaluations, they tend to take the same decisions at the same time, thus amplifying the initial shock to prices and trading volumes.

As such, it is of utmost importance that we consider the principles of sound and prudent financial management in this undertaking. We cannot in good conscience, overburden and cause anyone to enter into financial difficulty in pursuit of owning a home. This fundamentally goes against the intention of owning a house. Therefore, based on the principles of fairness, justice and prudence, it is necessary for us to be absolutely clear on what ‘affordable’ means. This will influence both the diagnosis of the issue and the solutions to be implemented. We must be fair and just to the needs of the ordinary person. At its core, affordability is a function of two things; the income of the individual and the price of the house. A house is affordable if its price does not overburden the person’s finances and reflects its true value. It is crucial that the percentage of income spent to service the mortgage does not go beyond the person’s financial capacity, and that they are able to pay for other obligations on top of this commitment. To this end, at the individual level, we need to put emphasis on the value of financial literacy and financial education. For example, the Credit Counseling and Debt Management Agency recently launched the “Rumahku” portal to help potential borrowers in Malaysia to understand the financial commitments associated with owning a house. It also helps them to understand their capacity to meet these commitments.
We are happy to notice that President Draghi has underscored that investors would now face equal terms related to the Outright Monetary Transaction programme, as announced by the ECB. Draghi pointed out another risk factor in July, when he stated that risk premiums are not only linked to default or liquidity, “but they also have to do more and more with convertibility”. 2 President Draghi emphasised that this kind of risk is unacceptable. I believe the ECB has taken the relevant measures to eliminate such risks. Financial investors are risk-averse. They react to signals, expectations about the future and real adjustments. No doubt some European countries have a long and bumpy road ahead of them, before they get their government deficits and debt under control. My message is that positive steps have been made. As a consequence of the measures taken by the ECB, as well as initiatives taken by the European Union and by member states themselves, risk premiums have recently come down. If measures are carried out as intended, it is quite likely that global investors will again allocate the relevant part of their asset portfolios to European government bonds. Final remarks Let me return to an overall macroeconomic perspective: to factors decisive for sustainable growth. The existence of a large, broad-based business sector that is exposed to international competition and trade promotes learning and development. This is true for any country. In countries with abundant natural resources, the exposed sector may easily be scaled back, while sheltered sectors expand.

Norman T L Chan: What does it take to develop a Global Offshore RMB Hub? Speech by Mr Norman T L Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Treasury Markets Summit 2014, Hong Kong, 15 September 2014. *  *  *  1. A very warm welcome to all of you to this year’s Treasury Markets Summit. 2. The theme of today’s Summit is: “Development of Hong Kong as the Offshore Renminbi Hub”. This is indeed a very timely topic as we have just marked the 5th anniversary of the launch of the pilot scheme for the use of renminbi (RMB) in cross-border trade transactions in the summer of 2009. We of course started the RMB banking business back in 2004, but until 2009 our business was restricted to the development of personal accounts for Hong Kong residents and use of credit cards. The major milestone was clearly the start of offshore RMB trade settlement and other businesses for corporates five years ago. 3. So what have we accomplished in the last five years? It is probably fair to say that very few of us could have envisaged the rapid progress that we have achieved in turning Hong Kong into the global offshore RMB business hub in such a short time. In terms of deposits, including Certificate of Deposit (CDs), we have grown from around RMB90 billion in end-June 2010 by nearly twelve times to RMB1.1 trillion now, which makes us the largest offshore RMB liquidity pool in the world.