But I would still say that the rough contours we now have on the map are fairly stable and will stay in place for quite some time. And that is very positive! Important landmarks in this landscape include, of course, the macroprudential oversight by the ESRB, and the Banking Union which focuses on the euro area. The Banking Union has three pillars; the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) which is a big leap forward on the microsupervisory side; the single resolution mechanism (SRM); and a European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS), which when it is implemented is meant to weaken the link between banks and their national sovereigns and deliver greater trust in the safety of retail bank deposits. …including national macroprudential frameworks In addition, national frameworks for macroprudential oversight and policy have been put into place all across the Union. The ESRB has played an important role in that work, not least through its recommendations regarding national macroprudential mandates and intermediate objectives and instruments for macroprudential policy. The latter breaks down the overall objective of macroprudential policy into a number of intermediate objectives, making it more clear what types of risks it is aiming at mitigating. This recommendation also provides an indicative list of instruments that Member States may assign to relevant authorities in order to pursue the objectives of macroprudential policy. The formal recommendations have most certainly been vital in providing a benchmark for the EU Member States when setting up their national macroprudential frameworks.

In this case, we can expect that in the third and fourth quarters economic activity will be recovering quarter-on-quarter. The economic situation will be returning to normal step-by-step. The direct adverse impact of the restrictions primarily falls on this quarter, while their secondary effects will continue to manifest in the future. According to our surveys, over 80% of the businesses across various industries have been experiencing the influence of the coronavirus pandemic and current 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  restrictions. Companies’ business sentiment has materially declined. It will take time to restore business processes, logistics and production chains, offset the reduction in profit and revenue, build up reserves and savings that have been used to a greater or lesser extent over the second quarter. Combined with uncertainty regarding potential changes in the external environment, this will limit production, investment and consumer activity. In these conditions, GDP will shrink yearon-year in the third and fourth quarters, that is the annual rate of economic growth will be negative. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, GDP will overall decrease by 4–6% in 2020. The major contributor to this reduction will be a decline in exports that may reach from 10% to 15%. Moreover, fixed capital investment will also substantially decrease (by 6– 10%) compared to the previous year. Companies will be primarily using their financial resources to restore their daily operations. Uncertainty about the prospects of domestic and external demand will be confining investment plans.