samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
With the exception of some pronounced swings in mid-September, rates implied by USDCHF and other Swiss franc FX swaps have largely moved sideways since the rate hike, and they are at around 0%. Several institutions active in the FX swap market still hold excess reserves. This has had the effect of pushing implied rates from Swiss franc FX swaps close to the lower remuneration rate for reserves. Transmission in the FX swap market is thus not yet complete. Concluding remarks Let me summarise today’s speech as follows. The past two years have posed significant challenges for central banks. Chief among them has been the resurgence of inflation. Confronted with this situation, central banks around the globe, including the SNB, have tightened their monetary policies. On 22 September – less than two months ago – the SNB ended the period of negative policy rates that had prevailed since January 2015. With the transition to a positive policy rate, we also adopted a new approach to implementing monetary policy in the Swiss franc money market. We hope to have demonstrated today the rationale for our new approach, and to have explained how this approach works in practice to allow us to both steer money market rates and support interbank activity in the Swiss franc money market. Page 9/10  References Berentsen, A., Kraenzlin, S. and Müller, B. (2018), Exit strategies for monetary policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, 99, 20–40. Fuhrer, L., Jüttner M., Wrampelmeyer, J. and Zwicker, M. (2021), Reserve tiering and the interbank market.

Speech  Embargo 17 November 2022, 6.30 pm  Return to positive interest rates: Why reserve tiering? Money Market Event  Andréa M. Maechler and Thomas Moser ∗ Member of the Governing Board / Alternate Member of the Governing Board Swiss National Bank Geneva, 17 November 2022 © Swiss National Bank  ∗  The speakers thank Florian Böser, Lucas Fuhrer and Mico Loretan for their support in drafting this speech. They also thank Dirk Faltin, Cyrille Planner, Michael Schäfer, Jacqueline Thomet and Tanja Zehnder for valuable comments as well as the SNB Language Services for the translations of the text. Page 1/10  Ladies and gentlemen It is with great pleasure that my colleague Thomas Moser and I welcome you to this year’s Swiss National Bank (SNB) Money Market Event in Geneva. We are very glad that so many of you have joined us this evening, be it on site or remotely. Since we last met in this setting a year ago, fighting inflation has become the most important task for central banks worldwide. Many countries have experienced a surge in inflation, the scale and pace of which very few anticipated. A large part of this surge was due to ongoing disruptions to global supply chains caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Russia’s war against Ukraine – in addition to causing immense human misery – has further contributed to inflationary pressures through its impact on energy and food prices.
We now have a much better sense of why: closely inter-connected global markets, once disrupted by deep uncertainty, can cause contagious collapses in confidence, output and asset prices as participants take precautionary action through fight or flight.26 This is the economics of infectious diseases. The stronger the connections, and the greater the uncertainty about them, the larger the potential scale of the epidemic. A version of this contagion problem may be operating now. The network is the world trading system and global supply chains rather than global interbank and security markets. And the uncertainty surrounds import tariffs rather than sub-prime defaults. But the same precautionary responses, whether fight or flight, appears to be in play, causing out-sized responses in asset prices and activity. 25 26  Carney (2019). Haldane and May (2011), Allen and Gale (2000) and Watts (2002). 25  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  25  Chart 28 plots the global trade network on two dates – 1980 and 2018. The wiring of the global trading system has become conspicuously more dense over that period, with the ratio of trade to GDP increasing by 50%. This increased connectivity in the world trading system has generated huge benefits. But that same connectivity has also increased the system’s potential to transmit recent fear and loathing, as uncertainties have clouded its future. Chart 28: Global trade network in 1980 and 2018 1980  2018  Sources: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics and Bank of England calculations.

Christian Noyer: The G20 and the role of emerging markets in the new financial architecture Opening speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, of the Session “The G20 and the role of emerging markets in the new financial architecture”, at the Money and banking conference 2009, Central Bank of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 31 August-1 September 2009. *  *  *  I am delighted to introduce this final session devoted to the lessons learned from the crisis regarding the international financial architecture and the role of emerging markets in this new configuration. The strong and rapid transmission of the crisis from the United States to other industrialised countries, and subsequently to emerging countries, has clearly highlighted the contrast between: -  on the one hand, the heightened exposure of the international economic and financial system to the risk of systemic crisis, due to the increased interdependence between players of developed and emerging economies and financial systems. -  and, on the other hand, our crisis prevention and management instruments, which have proved to be largely inappropriate or insufficient. Therefore, in order to prevent a similar crisis from occurring in the future, these instruments must be strengthened. This entails a reform of the international financial architecture. The mechanisms and content of international cooperation must be reviewed with the aim of devising crisis prevention and management tools that better take account of the greater interdependencies between the economic and financial systems of advanced and emerging countries.
But if any new relevant information or leads arise from ongoing investigations in Singapore or elsewhere, rest assured MAS will re-open the files and pursue the matter. At the same time, MAS has intensified its supervision of financial institutions that have higher inherent money laundering risks or control areas found wanting from past inspections. The inspections go beyond rules-based compliance to focus on risk understanding and 6 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  management. In our inspections, we examine: - whether the Board and senior management have effective oversight of money laundering/terrorism financing risks; - whether the financial institution takes timely action to properly resolve risk control concerns; and - whether there is good risk understanding, adequate risk culture and systems throughout the organisation, to support the proper execution of risk controls. Sustained effort and unstinting vigilance will be needed on the part of industry players to manage the risk of illicit finance and keep our financial centre clean. CREATING VALUE FOR THE ECONOMY MAS is reputed as a tough, “no-nonsense” regulator. But we also seek to be progressive and proactive in developing the financial sector – to be dynamic, innovative, and purposeful. We have said much before about our strategies to help grow various activities in the financial sector. We have also shared on many occasions our FinTech agenda and efforts to facilitate innovation in the financial sector.

Initiatives include: anchoring more regional and global VC and PE players in Singapore; 7 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  deepening the talent pool; enhancing ancillary professional services to better support VC activity; and building a pipeline of alternative market platforms that can facilitate private market exits for PE/VC investors. Second, we are working to strengthen Singapore’s value proposition for Asian companies to issue bonds. The growth potential for Asian bonds remains strong, particularly as companies in the region are looking to fund their growing operations and raise longer term capital. Let me mention three schemes that MAS has put in place to make Singapore the choice location for regional bond issuance. To attract new Asian issuers to Singapore’s bond market, MAS introduced the Asian Bond Grant scheme earlier this year. Under the grant, MAS will co-fund up to $ of issuance-related expenses for firsttime Asian issuers. To support bond issuers adopting environmentally sustainable practices, there is a Green Bond Grant scheme. The scheme will offset up to $ of the costs relating to the external review required of a green bond. And the latest – To encourage issuers to be rated and to nurture a healthy credit rating  culture in the SGD bond market, MAS will soon be introducing a SGD Credit Rating Grant. Issuers can claim 100% of their credit rating expenses, up to $ per issuer. Details will be released shortly. We strongly encourage regular domestic issuers to consider obtaining ratings.
On an annual basis, M3 growth increased to 32.0% in September 2010 from 27.7% in June 2010. This outturn was due to the rise in NDA by 96.9% (June 2010, rose by 58.2%) primarily on account of increased lending to government. However, the NFA fell by 9.8% compared with a fall of 1.2% recorded in June 2010. Excluding foreign currency deposits that grew by 29.8% (June 2010, fell by 5.9%), money supply growth was 33.2% from the 49.0% recorded in June 2010. Total domestic credit, comprehensively defined to include foreign currency loans, increased by 3.1% at end-September 2010 compared with 10.1% growth registered in the second quarter of 2010. This was mainly due to a 4.4% rise in net claims on central government that contributed 1.7 percentage points to the growth in domestic credit. Similarly, lending to the private sector (including public enterprises) grew by 2.2% and contributed 1.4 percentage points to the total domestic credit outturn. Excluding foreign currency denominated credit, which fell by 4.1%, domestic credit increased by 5.2% compared to the 7.5% registered in June 2010. On an annual basis, domestic credit growth at 13.5% in September 2010 was 10.1 percentage points lower than 23.6% recorded in June 2010. This largely reflected a slowdown in credit to the private sector, including public enterprises, to 0.7% compared with the 25.9% growth recorded in June 2010. This outturn contributed 0.4 percentage points to the total domestic credit growth in the quarter under review.

In the budget, the Government maintained its focus on diversifying the economy, increasing productive employment and maintaining a stable macro-economic environment. The key Macroeconomic objectives for 2011 are;   To exceed 6% GDP growth;    To reduce end-year inflation to 7.0%; and    To maintain international reserves of at least 4 months of import cover. The growth in GDP for 2011 is premised on the continued strong performance of the agriculture, mining, construction, manufacturing, transport and communications and tourism sectors. Inflation outlook for the fourth quarter of 2010 In the fourth quarter of 2010, annual overall inflation is projected to remain below the end year target of 8.0%. This favourable outlook is on account of expected stability in maize prices in view of the bumper harvest in 2010; expected favourable supply of vegetables and fresh fish during the period and expected relative stability of the exchange rate of the Kwacha against the US dollar for much of the fourth quarter. At end-September 2010, annual inflation was largely unchanged at 7.7% compared to the 7.8% recorded in June 2010, due to a decline in annual food inflation against a rise in annual non-food inflation during the same period. Consistent with this outturn, inflation projections indicate an annual overall inflation rate of 7.3% for end-December 2010. The Bank of Zambia will continue to monitor developments and undertake appropriate monetary policy actions to ensure that monetary targets are achieved.
It requires clear objectives, extensive decision-making delegation, strong control systems, open and transparent reporting and a realistic appreciation of the constraints faced. If conducted properly, openly and successfully it will greatly strengthen the public’s respect for and confidence in official policy, and make a material contribution to successful macroeconomic management. When we speak about reserve management strategy, we face the challenges of the new low yield environment, but at the same time, one should have in mind the constrains set by the country-specific factors like the foreign exchange regime, the domestic capital markets size and depth, the reserve volume and the currency of the country's liabilities. In that regard, main building block in the reserve management process is naturally the strategic asset allocation, set in a manner that ensures achievment of the key goals of the reserves management, that is: capital preservation, liquidity and at the end - return. In respect to the last goal of the reserve management process, as we are in the middle of the second decade of 21st century, competition for return has intensified, reaching new levels, as the global economy enters increasingly challenging times. In that regard, operational functions of the reserve management can contribute as well, having in mind that like never before the most important goal of operational conduct of the transaction is to deliver the most value at the lowest cost in the least amount of time.

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However, the $ proceeds from the share issue must be maintained with a bank in Singapore and converted into foreign currency before they can be used outside Singapore. Foreign-owned companies whose shares are currently traded in foreign currencies on SES can convert the quotation of their stocks into $ SES will announce details for such conversion shortly. Subsequent share issues by such companies will be subject to the same requirement, i.e. proceeds must be converted into foreign currency before being used outside Singapore. This change is in line with the caveat emptor principle. Singaporean investors considering buying shares in a foreign company not operating in Singapore should learn for themselves what the company is doing, how successful it is likely to be, and what the risks are, before deciding whether or not to invest in the company. There is no need to deter them from investing in the company, by making the company list in a foreign currency. MAS will be issuing a revised MAS 757 shortly, incorporating these revisions. We hope the changes will increase international participation in our $ capital markets and add to their depth and critical mass. MAS will, of course, continue to review the Notice on an ongoing basis, in line with market needs and financial innovation. Year 2000 Lastly, it being so close to the end of the year, let me make some remarks on Y2K. Singapore’s financial sector is fully ready for the new millennium. All banks and financial institutions have taken all necessary steps to achieve Y2K readiness.

Now, before asking my colleagues to discuss some of these trends in more detail, let me note that my positive overview of the household sector comes with some caveats. First, these aggregate statistics can mask some important variations, and there are some local markets where, as in the prior boom, both house prices and mortgage growth are quite strong. Similarly, there exist substantial differences across households in their financial situation and their ability to improve their balance sheets. Borrowers with little equity, low credit scores and slow income growth face difficulties refinancing into low rate mortgages. As a result, this subset of the population has been less able to deleverage and still faces  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  relatively high debt service costs, which constrains their consumption, investment and saving behavior. So, even within what looks to be a stable overall mortgage market, there are some things that we must continue to monitor. Second, there are other difficult challenges that many households face, particularly with respect to a subject we’ve discussed on previous occasions – student loans. On balance, though, households are in a much better position today than they were in 2008. Now, I’d like to turn things over to our economists, beginning with Andrew Haughwout, who will provide a more detailed discussion of household sector finances. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
A monopolistic market would result in less innovative products and higher cost over the long term. In Malaysia, the presence of price distortion had caused e-payments to be costlier than paper-based instruments, thus making it less affordable to the masses. For instance, e-payment services such as Interbank GIRO (IBG) used to be priced above cost at RM2 per transaction. Cheque, which costs RM3 to process however, was not directly priced except for the stamp duty of 15 sen. To correct the price distortion, Bank Negara Malaysia had introduced a Pricing Reform framework where the price of IBG and cheques are aligned closer to their cost of production. At the same time, the public are provided with an alternative e-payment option which is cheaper and more efficient. To ensure that adequate e-payment services are provided, Bank Negara Malaysia will collaborate with the industry to establish a market-driven incentive framework to drive expansion in the various delivery channels. 2  The total sub-districts served have increased to 92.5% while the total State Legislative Assembly districts served has increased to 99.8%. 3  With at least 1 transaction per month. 4  Australia, the United Kingdom and Norway. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Since the commencement of the Pricing Reform framework, we have seen significant improvements. IBG transaction volume grew at a higher rate of 45.6% on a year-on-year basis for the first half of 2014 compared to 12.4% for the same period last year.

While regulators can act as the catalyst in prescribing interoperability standards and garnering industry efforts to facilitate infrastructure development and sharing of infrastructure costs, the industry must also play its role by adopting new standards quickly. In Malaysia, there is currently an industry initiative to migrate the ATM cards to the EMV standard with the objective to widen the acceptance of the ATM cards for retail payments. There is also an on-going project to establish the National Bill Payments Scheme (NBPS), a common bill payment platform where billers only need to connect to one bank in order to 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  receive payments from customers across all banks. All these efforts are intended to make epayments for the public seamless and reduce duplication of resources in infrastructure investment. 3. Strengthening transaction security  Let me now turn to the third focus area which is the importance of strengthening transaction security to minimise fraud and instil greater confidence in the use of e-payments. Fraud and risk management measures must not only be effective, it must also be proportionate to the level of risk. Otherwise, it may be too costly to implement or too cumbersome to use, and people might revert to using cash. Equally important is the presence of effective payment system rules so that all parties in the payment value chain are held accountable for ensuring a minimal standard of security and service level. It is of paramount importance to sustain consumers’ perception and confidence in the safety of payment instruments.
In the 10 years between 1997 and 2007, the annualised growth rate of real credit was 7%, relative to real GDP growth of 3%. That meant credit grew at more than double the rate of the economy over the period. Had this trend continued the stock of credit would have been 200% of GDP by 2012 and 300% of GDP by 2023. The great recession that followed the financial crisis saw a sharp correction. Credit went into reverse, shrinking annually by around 2.5% a year in real terms from 2010–2014. By 2014 the stock of credit had dropped from its peak of 177% of GDP to 140% – and remains around that level. To put it in context, we are now back to where we were in 2002. Credit to GDP would have to fall another 25 percentage points to get back to 1997. Credit, of course, is another way of saying debt. As most of the lending during the long period of pre-crisis credit growth was to UK households, the stock of UK households’ debt relative to their income not surprisingly follows a similar path to the stock of credit to GDP. In 1964, it was 54% and remained around this level until 1980; but by 1990 it had exceeded 100%. It surged again from the late 1990s – by 2007 it had grown to 155%. It fell to 135%, its 2004 level, in 2012 and remains around there.

Before I start, however, there are three important points to bear in mind. The first is that credit or debt is not “bad”. It is an essential part of what makes modern economies grow. It facilitates consumption smoothing, house purchases, investment and risk management. The last eight years have demonstrated what happens to the economy when the credit mechanism is badly damaged.2 Nor does the stock of credit to GDP have to be constant; there are good reasons, as I will try to set out, why advanced economies may have been able to sustain and indeed benefit from an increase in the level of credit to GDP. Our economy and society would be very different, and I suspect much less congenial if the credit to GDP ratio were at its 1880 level of 16%. The issue rather is what are the financial stability and broader economic risks for the UK if credit consistently grows faster than GDP and as a result debt to income resumes its upward path? That cannot continue indefinitely. Trees cannot grow to the sky. The second important point to make at the outset is that the great financial crisis of 2007 was not triggered by UK households’ build up of debt. But the debt made our economy much more vulnerable when the shock hit us. And high stocks of household debt – especially when secured on housing assets – have been at the root of many other financial crises in the past. I will say more about this later on.