samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
And, in response to a terrorist attack or other significant national security event, is your bank proactively searching its payment activity to see if it has potentially relevant information? One question that I get asked from time to time is if law enforcement can share more information about the activity reported in SARs. I believe law enforcement is always looking for ways to enhance the effectiveness of its information sharing. I want to recognize FinCEN’s efforts to share more information via its public website and in its reports to Congress about the information it collects from the industry through SARs. The New York Fed also tries to do its part. It hosts three major conferences every year in which the FBI, FinCEN, local law enforcement, and financial firms discuss financial crime—especially terrorist financing, money laundering, and cyber-crime. We do our best to act as a liaison between banks and law enforcement officials. We’ll keep at it. Conclusion Stepping back, I’d encourage you to consider as well what your firm’s response to financial crime says about its purpose and culture. What does it say about the role of the financial services industry in society? And, to get personal for a moment, how does that response make you feel about where you work and how you make a living? From where I sit, gaps in AML and other payment system defenses make a terrible impression because of the terrible things funded through illegal payments.

We have now concluded that there is not normally reason to indicate prior to the monetary policy meetings in speeches and press releases how our views of the repo rate path have changed. Our assessment is that it is enough to signal our intentions clearly in connection with the seven monetary policy meetings held every year. In connection with three of these meetings we will publish our own forecast for the future repo rate, and our Monetary Policy Report will show clearly why we have chosen this particular path. On the other four occasions we will make a qualitative assessment of how the most recently published interest rate forecast relates to the new information received. Even if the interest rate path forecast is only a forecast and not a promise, a central bank can hardly be clearer than this with regard to its views on economic developments and the consequences for the interest rate. There may also in exceptional cases be justification for some signalling between two monetary policy meetings. If, for instance, something occurs to radically alter the economic situation, while there is a long time until the next meeting, it may be necessary to make a comment in order to avoid the risk of unnecessary uncertainty in the financial markets. It should then be clear whether the entire Executive Board supports this view or whether it is the opinion of an individual member.
I believe we can all agree that it is easier to use banknotes and coins today than it was a couple of hundred years ago, and that it is easier, quicker and safer to use chips and PIN codes than paper slips for card payments. Cards are in turn preferable to cheques. What about the Swedish payments market? Does it give us payment services that are uniform, safe, efficient and accessible? The transformation of the Swedish retail payments market As the market changes rapidly through technological advances and through the establishment of new operators, it is important that the Riksbank follows and analyses the Swedish retail payments market. The results I am about to describe come from a telephone interview survey about households’ payment behaviour that the Riksbank regularly carries out. High accessibility and high level of confidence If we look at the most common payment services we use when we pay at points of sale, 96% of the respondents said that they had access to cash, and almost 99% said they had access to a bank or credit card. No respondent said that they had access to neither cash nor cards. Accessibility for cards and cash is thus very high and so is the general public’s confidence in them and this is reflected in the fact that both are used to a considerable extent. However, cards are being used increasingly often as a means of payment at the cost of cash.

Cecilia Skingsley: Changing payments market Speech by Ms Cecilia Skingsley, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, 24 November 2014. *  *  *  I would like to express my warm thanks to Björn Segendorff for his help with this speech. The market for payments is changing rapidly. Sweden is in the forefront with regard to the development and use of electronic payments. Cash has therefore met with tough competition from new, innovative methods of payment. This development is positive in many ways, but changes also entail challenges. The Riksbank is taking an active part in the work on managing these challenges to make things easier for economic agents. Why is it important that our payments function? We rarely think about it when we are paying for a product or service. Often we pay in the same way as we have always done and we assume that this will work. It is rather like walking or cycling – we can think about something else while we are doing it. Nevertheless, all of the day-to-day payments are very important to us – they give us access to the goods and services we need in our daily lives. But all payments mean that we are using highly-specialised services. Behind every non-cash payment we make there are intermediaries mediating the payment from payer to payee. This is done within an infrastructure of various technical systems that are necessary to make the payment.
It is becoming increasingly evident, for example, that a proper analysis of the system’s robustness requires detailed statistics about entities for which data are currently either not available or are fragmented. This is particularly the case of the non-bank financial sector, and also of the corporate and household sectors, although in this latter area some progress is being made through the joint efforts of the Bank, the Authority and the National Statistics Office. BIS Review 50/2004  3  Another aspect warranting particular attention is that of financial crisis management. While the current institutional and regulatory framework has been successful in keeping at bay any major systemic disturbance, further progress is required, for example by defining the specific roles and responsibilities of the Bank, the Authority and the Government. In this respect, the Joint Contingency Plan for systemically important banks drawn-up by the Bank and the Authority already takes into account the involvement of the Ministry of Finance with respect to the possible use of public funds and the Bank’s lender of last resort function. This framework is currently in the process of being refined further.

Moreover, in 2016, the wealthiest region in Romania was almost four times richer than the poorest one (measured by the regional GDP per capita as a percentage of the euro area average). The second guiding principle towards sustainable and smooth convergence is to keep going. By this, I mean that progress, once made, should not be undone. We now need to maintain the economy on an upward trend, while being extremely careful to preserve the macroeconomic equilibria restored through a painful adjustment after the crisis. The only way ahead is by means of a coherent macroeconomic policy mix and resolute structural reforms aimed to boost the economy’s growth potential, while making it more resilient. This approach should never leave room for pro-cyclical policies. As we have clarified that the consistency and the sustainability of real convergence are extremely important, now it is time to discuss how monetary policy can support these two dimensions of the convergence process. It is beyond any doubt that countercyclical monetary policy favours smooth convergence. This has always been one of the guiding principles for calibrating the stance of NBR’s monetary policy, as well as for developing and employing our policy tools. An example of the latter are the unorthodox prudential measures taken before the global crisis to mitigate the impact of extremely volatile capital flows; with these in mind, the IMF mentioned the NBR as being among “the pioneers” of what was later referred to as “macroprudential instruments”.
James McAndrews: Credit growth and economic activity after the Great Recession Remarks by Mr James McAndrews, Executive Vice President and Director of Research of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Economic Press Briefing on Student Loans, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 16 February 2015. *  *  *  Accompanying tables and figures can be found at the end of the speech. Good morning and let me welcome you to our press briefing focusing on developments in the student loan market. My remarks will concentrate on the role of credit markets more generally during this economic expansion. As a reminder, these remarks reflect my own views, and not those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or of the Federal Reserve System. First, let me say a few words on the current economic outlook. Real GDP grew 2.4 percent over the course of 2014. As New York Fed President Dudley noted earlier this month, despite what appears to be a soft first quarter, we expect that real GDP growth will continue over the next couple of years at a similar rate, supported by solid underlying fundamentals and accommodative financial conditions. Unemployment should continue to decline and approach 5 percent by late this year. Because of the recent sharp fall in oil prices and the appreciation of the dollar, inflation will be very low over the coming months.

Based on data from the Financial Accounts of the United States (Flow of Funds), real credit (that is, credit after taking into account the effects of inflation) to both corporations and households in prior recoveries generally started to grow fairly quickly after the end of the recession. By contrast, in the most recent recovery the real credit outstanding of businesses (corporations and non-corporations) declined for about two years after the end of the recession. And only recently – more than five years after the end of the recession – has it attained pre-recession levels (Figure 1). More dramatically, real credit to households continued to decline for about four years and, while it has finally begun to expand, is still well below its pre-recession levels (Figure 2). These different patterns of credit growth partly reflect the weak state of the banking sector following the financial crisis. The U.S. banking sector experienced record losses in the Great BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Recession that impaired a significant portion of banks’ capital and triggered many failures. These losses would have been even higher had it not been for the liquidity and solvency support from the official sector – including the U.S. Treasury, the FDIC and the Federal Reserve. Sorting banks by the losses incurred during a recession relative to equity capital at the beginning of the recession, it is clear that the U.S. banking industry across this spectrum was much more adversely affected in the latest recession than in the two prior recessions (Figure 3).
Had the APF done so, in addition to strong primary market private sector demand, it would undoubtedly have helped to drive down market spreads. But it would also have risked displacing that private sector demand, to little purpose in my view. In fact, a greater intervention in this market during this period could have made things worse – the problem was in the functioning of the market, not a lack of demand for the assets. It would be fair to say that the corporate bond scheme attracted some criticism in its early months. Many observers misunderstood the nature and purpose of the scheme and considered that the small amounts bought were a sign of failure. But, as I have stressed tonight, the objectives of the scheme were not based on buying a particular amount. In fact, over the past year, the corporate bond market overall has performed consistently strongly and in line with the original objectives of the scheme: There has been record issuance of sterling corporate bonds (Chart 5); spreads for eligible bonds have halved (Chart 6); bid-offer spreads have narrowed; and the bond-CDS basis 6 has also contracted significantly. These asset purchases do seem to have played their part in improving the access of investment grade corporates to bond market financing. The one disappointing feature of the sterling corporate bond market is the continuing problem of secondary market illiquidity.

Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, the contribution of financial services to individual entrepreneurs as well as small and medium sized businesses cannot be over-emphasised. As you are no doubt aware, following the liberalization of the financial sector in the early 1990’s, the financial sector in Zambia has evolved rapidly spurred by increasing competition. Similarly, policies and the legal and regulatory frameworks have been developed to take into account the fast changing liberalised environment. These developments have resulted in a considerable increase in the number of banks and other financial service providers. Therefore, the banking sector has over the last few years, witnessed significant growth in consumer lending. As a matter of fact, on a sectoral basis the “personal loan” category has been the largest recipient of total credit in the recent years and accounted for 22% in November 2009. Small and Medium Enterprises have also significantly benefited from credit expansion. The resultant credit expansion has no doubt brought significant benefits to the economy as resources are increasingly channeled through to the lower end of the market. However, most of the credit extended by banks and microfinance institutions is targeted at individuals in formal employment or already established enterprises. Only an insignificant amount is extended to start-up initiatives or the informal sector. This has been exacerbated by the inability of entrepreneurs to articulate and sell bankable projects through robust business plans.
Under an inflation targeting regime the central bank would be forced to calculate and publicize the long-run implications of its short-run actions, thus ensuring that they would be subject to public scrutiny and debate. To the extent that the central bank governors dislike admitting publicly that they may miss their long-run inflation targets, the existence of an inflation targeting framework provides an incentive for the central bank to limit its short-run opportunism. The advantage of the inflation targeting regime is its great emphasis on the regular communication with the public and transparency. This property plays an important role in the success of inflation targeting, particularly in the industrialized countries. The policy makers in the developed countries use every opportunity to communicate with public speeches, and takes a step further by way of inflation reports. Transparency and openness of the operating framework of monetary policy can bring important credibility gains, and institutional arrangements such as greater independence of the central bank can be helpful in this regard. European Central Bank and central banks in the EU zone are good examples for a model. Hence, it is perhaps not surprising that in many countries the adoption of official inflation targets has been accompanied by moves toward central bank independence and accountability. Nowadays, central banks are increasingly publishing information on their policies that they would have considered state secrets only twenty years ago, like minutes of board meetings and policy models.

In our downside scenario, which captures – among other shocks – the impact of a complete cut-off of Russian gas, we project that the economy will contract next year before picking up in 2024. But inflation is expected to be higher at the end of the projection horizon than in the baseline scenario. [14] A third factor will be the actions of governments. Monetary policy will do whatever is needed to return inflation to our target. But a truly European approach where monetary and fiscal policy complement each other can improve the inflation outlook. In particular, how fiscal policies support firms and households through the difficult winter ahead will play an important role in inflation dynamics. Targeted, temporary and tailored measures are needed to protect the incomes of the most vulnerable, while also preventing a significant loss of capacity owing to production cuts and bankruptcies. But beyond that, it will make a difference whether fiscal policy focuses mainly on public consumption and transfers – which may add to inflationary pressures – or on public investment and debt sustainability. As many of the sources of inflation today are on the supply side, government policies that lift supply and redirect investment to where it is needed are necessary to support sustainable growth. The pace of rate increases The second consideration in responding to current inflation is the pace of rate increases.
This is a slightly better outcome than in our July forecast, where we assumed that GDP would fall by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter and that the fall would not come to a halt until the third quarter. However, there was unusually great uncertainty regarding the preliminary national accounts figures on this occasion. In recent months various confidence indicators have also shown an improvement. The National Institute of Economic Research’s Economic Tendency Survey, which summarises companies’ and households’ views of the economic situation, increased by almost seven units in July, to 87.1. However, the level is still below 100 and indicates that the mood among companies and households is still much weaker than normal (see Figure 13). 6 The purchasing managers’ index for July was also more positive than market expectations had implied. It rose by almost four units to 54.3 and was thus above 50 for the second month in a row (see Figure 14). The purchasing managers’ index is usually a slightly quicker indicator of developments than the economic tendency survey and an index above 50 indicates growth. 7 Labour market continues to weaken Our assessment in the most recent Monetary Policy Report was that the labour market would continue to be weak. A deterioration in the labour market usually lags behind in an economic downturn, which was also the case this time.

GDP in Sweden Annual percentage change 5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2  -3  -3  -4  -4  -5  -5 -6  -6 00  01  02  03  04  05  Note. Broken columns represent the Riksbank’s forecasts. BIS Review 98/2009  06  07  08  09  10  11  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  13  13. Survey indicator Index 120  120  Survey indicator Meanvalue +/ - one standard deviation  115  115  110  110  105  105  100  100  95  95  90  90  85  85  80  80  75  75 70  70 00  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  Source: National Institute of Economic Research (NIER)  14.
We have been hosting a series of events that bring together experts on economic inequality and the needs of low- and moderate-income communities in our District. Today’s event on food insecurity is part of that larger effort. But we recognize it’s not enough to merely study the issue. The role of our Community Development team is to champion promising solutions by connecting people, programs, and proposals with funding. Up to 40 percent of food produced in the United States goes to waste 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  each year, so there is a huge opportunity to distribute that unused food to those who need it. You’ll be hearing more about that later today. But first, we’ll start off with a presentation from Professor Tashara Leak. She’ll frame the discussion by talking about how food insecurity affects the health of children—and how that, in turn, shapes their economic prospects as they grow older. Then, we’ll convene a panel of business and government leaders, along with impact investors, who will spotlight some of the innovative work being done to make healthy and affordable food more accessible. Thank you all for joining us. And with that, I’ll turn it over to Professor Leak. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches

Public demand has also stimulated the economy. Chart: Relative labour costs The Norwegian krone has depreciated markedly in the wake of the fall in oil prices and is now approximately 15 percent weaker than two years ago. The depreciation has led to a marked improvement in Norwegian firms’ cost competitiveness. The main responsibility for developments in relative wages lies with the social partners. If the improvement in competitiveness is to be sustained, Norwegian labour costs must develop more in line with the labour costs of our trading partners. This will make it easier to build up a larger non-oil tradable sector. The krone depreciation has helped start the restructuring process in the Norwegian economy. After a decade of higher growth in imports than mainland exports, export growth has recently outpaced import growth. The tourism industry is one of a number of industries experiencing an upswing. Many export firms have announced plans to increase investments in 2016, which will provide opportunities for an increase in production and market shares. Chart: Unemployment Employment in Norway has been high for many years. Compared with other countries, unemployment has been low. In the competition for labour resources, oil production and oil service companies have drawn the longest straw. The situation has now changed. Unemployment has increased over the past year. Regions with close links to the oil industry, 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  which have benefitted from the oil boom for many years, are being hit hard. Although employment continued to rise last year, employment growth has slowed.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  Table 1 World growth (annual change, percent) 2000-2007 average  2009  2010 (e)  2011 (f) Jun.11 Report  Sep.11 Report  2012 (f) Jun.11 Report  Sep.11 Report  2013 (f) Sep.11 Report  World at PPP  4.2  -0.6  5.0  4.1  3.9  4.5  4.0  4.5  World at mkt exchange rate  3.2  -2.1  3.8  3.2  3.0  3.8  3.3  3.7  1.6  3.2  2.0  2.8  1.7  1.5  1.2  2.1  United States  2.6  -3.5  3.0  2.7  Eurozone  2.2  -4.1  1.7  1.7  Japan  1.7  -6.3  4.0  -0.6  -0.5  3.1  2.8  1.8  China  10.5  9.2  10.3  8.9  9.0  8.6  8.3  8.7  4.9  4.9  4.5  5.0  4.2  4.3  3.9  4.2  =  Rest of Asia  5.1  0.1  7.8  4.8  Latin America (excl. Chile)  3.5  -2.0  6.3  4.2  Commodity exporters  3.1  -1.2  2.9  2.7  2.2  3.0  2.5  3.2  Trading partners  3.6  -0.4  5.9  4.3  4.2  4.7  4.3  4.6  =  (e) Estimate. (f) Forecast.

As QEs can reduce the short term pain and pressure brought by adjustments, there is a real risk the implementation of the much needed reforms in the private sector and the fiscal reform in the public sector could be delayed, or dropped altogether. This means the fundamental cause of the imbalances in the global financial system is not being addressed at all. The problem is particularly acute in the fiscal positions of many advanced economies that have built up high levels of public debt. According to the “Ricardian Equivalence” theory, when people believe the fiscal positions of their governments are unsustainable and that at some future stage the governments have no choice but to raise taxes to pay back the debt, this will materially curtail the citizens’ desire to spend and invest now because they need to save more to prepare for the “rainy” days ahead. (c) Finally, the third important cost or risk factor is the misallocation of resources and investments: Given the near zero interest rates and abundant liquidity in the financial system, it is to be expected that the asset markets, especially the stock and housing markets, will benefit. With US stock markets continually reaching historical highs and with a strong rebound in the housing market, the positive wealth effects should help boost consumption and investment.