7  According to data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, there were 31.8 million refinancings of first-lien single-family mortgages over 2008–2013, with an average (median) loan amount of $ $  8  For evidence on the importance of capacity constraints for time-varying margins in mortgage pricing, see Fuster, Goodman, Lucca, Madar, Molloy and Willen, 2012, The Rising Gap between Primary and Secondary Mortgage Rates, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 19(2), pp. 17–39. 9  This is documented for instance in another paper presented yesterday, by Andersen, Campbell, Meisner, Nielsen and Ramadorai (2015), “Inattention and Inertia in Household Finance: Evidence from the Danish Mortgage Market”. 10  For evidence that lenders are less willing to originate FRMs if mortgage securitization markets are illiquid or frozen, see Fuster and Vickery (2015), “Securitization and the Fixed-Rate Mortgage”, Review of Financial Studies, 28(1), pp. 176-211. Research presented in yesterday’s academic sessions finds that a bank’s access to external bond finance influences the composition of mortgages it originates: see Foá, Gambacorta, Guiso and Mistrulli (2015), The Supply Side of Mortgage Finance. 11  One proposal for such innovation that would have increased pass-through during the crisis is the “automatic stabilizer mortgage” of Eberly and Krishnamurthy, 2014; see http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/conference/2015/mortgage_design/Eberly_Janice_052015.pdf. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  foreclosures, and associated credit losses. But a number of proposals have argued that mortgage balances should be explicitly indexed to movements in home prices in some way. 12 I hope I have whetted your appetite for today’s events.

Clear communication reduces the risk of confusion, volatility, and spillovers, and helps others prepare for challenges that may lie ahead. Experience has demonstrated that transparency in monetary policy can both increase its effectiveness and reduce unintended consequences. Shared Insights and Analyses 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  That is why the perspectives we gain through ongoing dialogue with our counterparts are so valuable. Across the globe, many central banks—including the Federal Reserve—are moving to unwind the highly accommodative policies they put in place at the start of the pandemic. And we are doing this at a time when the economic implications of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine remain highly uncertain. As we all take these steps, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has provided an indispensable venue for sharing insights, analyses, and concerns. By engaging with each other, we are able to stay ahead of the trends and issues that affect other economies and their financial markets. And that is true not only when it comes to policy development and execution, but also in understanding economic and financial developments across the globe. A particularly apt example of the value of dialogue is the BIS’s Consultative Council for the Americas, which I’ve had the pleasure of chairing since 2020. Agustín, Julio, Roberto, and our colleagues from Argentina, Canada, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico are participants in meetings of the Council. Suffice to say, we’ve had a great deal to discuss over the past two years.