samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
***  10  Figure 1 GDP growth (real annual change, percent)  6  6  4  4 Total  2  2  Non-mining  0  0  -2  -2 14  15  16  17  18  Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 2 Manufacturing output index  Private salaried hours worked (*)  (annual change, percent)  (seasonally-adjusted levels, weekly average)  12  12  43  45  8  8  42  44  4  4  41  0  0  40  Habitual (right axis)  43 42  Effectivas -4  -4  39  41  -8  -8  38  40  14  15  16  17  18  10  12  (*) Black dashed lines show annual centered moving average of respective series. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE).

MONETARY POLICY REPORT PRESENTATION BEFORE THE FINANCE COMMISSION OF THE HONORABLE SENATE OF THE REPUBLIC  Mario Marcel Governor Central Bank of Chile 5 December 2018    The December 2018 Monetary Policy Report can be found at http://www.bcentral.cl. Introduction Mr President of the Senate’s Finance Commission, Senator Juan Pablo Letelier, senators members of this Commission, ladies, gentlemen, I am grateful for your invitation to present the vision of the Board of the Central Bank of Chile (BCCh) on the recent macroeconomic developments, prospects, and implications for monetary policy. This vision is contained in detail in our December 2018 Monetary Policy Report published this morning. Its contents provide the background for the decision adopted by the Board at yesterday’s Monetary Policy Meeting, and consider the October Imacec1 that was released today. At yesterday’s meeting, the Board decided unanimously to keep the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged at 2.75 percent. At the same time, we reiterated that the evolution of macroeconomic conditions make it possible and necessary to gradually reduce the monetary stimulus. This decision is consistent with the analysis and baseline projection scenario I will be sharing with you now. This analysis begins noting that annual inflation has risen throughout the year. After being under 2% almost the entire second half of 2017, today annual inflation is around 3%.
As summarized in one of the boxes of this MP Report, evidence on how the withdrawn savings are being used is still limited. Although merely qualitative, various surveys show that it will boost both durable and non-durable consumption, while another portion will be used to pay for financial commitments, saving and investment. Retail sales data collected on electronic bills are consistent with a rebound in consumption in recent weeks. According to these figures, compared with the first weeks of August and the last two weeks of July, retail sales showed a significant rebound, concentrated in the department store segment, which had been the hardest hit since the beginning of the quarantines (Figure 10). With regard to the possible implications for activity, the effects on consumption would be more biased towards the purchase of goods—whose production and commercialization has a greater imported component and is less labor intensive. Notwithstanding this, there is no doubt that this measure will contribute significantly to the upturn in demand and activity in the near future, as reflected in our projections. As for the longer-term effects, we must factor in the impact of the reduction in pension savings, if it is not compensated for, on the country’s investment and growth capacity.

For Ronald Coase and Douglas North, institutions helped solve information and co-ordination problems within organisations, communities and societies (Coase (1960), North (1981)). The more complex these information problems, the more important were institutions as staging posts to efficiency and progress. For Mancur Olson, institutions could be a bulwark against the power of vested interests (Olson (1982)). Vocal minorities could block reform which would otherwise benefit the silent majority – for example, through tougher anti-trust law and tighter regulation. Institutions, arms-length from these vested interests, could break that reform logjam and thereby act as a growth facilitator. A common denominator among all of these thinkers, from Smith to Veblen to Coase to North, is that institutions rise in importance as societies become more complex, integrated and information-rich. Indeed, by embedding knowledge from the past, and investing in public goods for the future, institutions were essential prerequisites for continuing progress in such systems. Recently, those basic insights have been corroborated by historical evidence. Institutional quality has been found to be a key determinant of economic growth, particularly during financial liberalisation (Kose et al. (2006)). For Acemoglu and Robinson (2012), institutions play the pivotal role in explaining “Why Nations Fail”. In an echo of Olson, they distinguish extractive (catering for an elite) and inclusive (catering for society) regimes, with the first a recipe for economic regress, the latter for progress. Whether old or new, institutions seem to matter. Their secret lies in solving societal problems of knowledge, co-ordination and incentives.
They are a down-payment on our commitment to use our new powers to tailor rules and to make the UK a better place to operate a financial firm, without compromising on safety. Page 7  We plan more. We are looking more broadly at the whole structure of rules around remuneration and we are committed to publishing proposals to simplify capital requirements for the simpler regime. Ideas for how we can simplify rules for larger mid-tier firms are under development. On that subject, I want to draw attention to analysis we have published today about the impacts of the Basel 3.1 proposals we are consulting on and of some earlier reforms. [23] The analysis shows how these will together help to narrow the gap between capital requirements for mortgages under the Standardised Approach used by the majority of smaller banks and the Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approach used by bigger banks. This analysis shows how we are already levelling the playing field to facilitate effective competition between small and large banks. In this case, our analysis shows why we expect the gap between capital required for mortgages under the Standardised Approach and capital required under IRB to narrow significantly. [24] These findings will inform our approach to simpler regime capital requirements for small firms. Deepening our understanding As we continue our work, we must continue to draw on global best practice when pursuing our new objective.

That, after all, is our job. We are getting on with it, and we look forward to being judged on our performance. This represents my personal views and not those of the Bank. Any errors are my own. Particular thanks for their contributions to the speech go to Austen Saunders, Faith Bannier, Max Weidlich and Michael Pinder. My thanks also to the following people for their input and comments: Ala Marar, Andrew Bailey, Andrew Bell, Anna Jernova, Ben Dubow, Ben Guerin, Bronagh Kealey, Charandeep Biling, Charlotte Gerken, David Bailey, Eleanor Beamond-Pepler, Gao Yu, Gareth Truran, George Speight, Harriet Gamper, Jon Newton, Jonathan Haynes, Julian Gray, Lanze Gardiner Vandvik, Mariana Gimpelewicz, Matthew Willison, Millie Rettie, Nick Lock, Nigel Fray, Olatunji Jayeola, Paul Hawkins, Phil Evans, Rebecca de Hoest, Renée Horrell, Robert Miller, Sadia Arif, Sarah Breeden, Sam Woods. 1. For a taxonomy of different definitions, see: Berger, Thomas (2008), ‘Concepts of National Competitiveness’, Journal of International Business and Economy, 9(1), pages 91-111. 2. For a comprehensive literature review, see: Levine, Ross (2021), ‘Finance, Growth, and Inequality’, IMF Working Paper No. 2021/164; and Popov, Alexander (2017), ‘Evidence on finance and economic growth’, ECB Working Paper 2115. 3. ‘Growth and competitiveness – speech by Sam Woods, Mansion House’, 27 October 2022. 4. The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) and FPC (Financial Policy Committee) have already important secondary objectives in relation to economic growth and the Bank of England as a Financial Market Infrastructure regulator is likely to acquire a new secondary objective in relation to innovation.
With kuna banknotes bearing my signature and the stability of the kuna having been the focus of most of my professional career, I probably have the most reason to regret its passing into history. However, we have introduced the euro for the benefit of Croatia and I have never had any doubt about this being the right way. Not only did Croatia become the twentieth member of the euro area with the  1/2  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  introduction of the euro, but it also entered into partnership with the countries using the second major currency in the world. Looking forward, the introduction of the euro has opened a new chapter of our monetary history for us at the central bank. On 1 January 2023, the Croatian National Bank became part of the Eurosystem and thus an active participant in defining a common monetary policy. Furthermore, our voice in the ECB's Governing Council has a greater weight relative to the size of our country, and for the first time in history we are in a position to influence the financing conditions in the euro area and, consequently, in Croatia. Those opposing the euro might claim that Croatia loses its monetary independence by joining the monetary union, but the truth is in fact the opposite: Croatia has gained more power.

Boris Vujčić: Croatia's joining the euro area makes it an active participant in defining a common monetary policy Speech by Mr Boris Vujčić, Governor of the Croatian National Bank, at the conference "Croatia, the 20th Member of the Euro Area", Zagreb, 24 January 2023. *** Your Excellencies, esteemed guests, ladies and gentlemen, it is my honour and pleasure to welcome you to the conference that marks an outstanding success of our country, our economy and our society as a whole, to which many of you have directly contributed: the introduction of the euro in Croatia. Allow me to extend my deepest gratitude to you for all your effort, hard work and dedication to this, in all respects, complex and demanding project. Commenced in 2017 with the Eurostrategy, a strategic document outlining significant and lasting economic benefits to be brought to the Croatian economy by the euro and, in contrast, relatively small and mostly one-off costs, the project involved a lot of stakeholders in Croatia and abroad. Exposed to a great many risks, it demanded that quite a few goals be achieved and challenges overcome in the process, which was done successfully and in the shortest possible period, notwithstanding all external shocks and requirements that had to be met along the way. Some of them are widely known, while only a narrow circle of those involved is familiar with the others. Still fresh in our memories are the COVID pandemic and the devastating earthquake that hit Zagreb in March 2020.
We – central banks and statistical institutes – have been doing this with remarkable results in the Committee for Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics since 1991. And since 2013, we also meet in the European Statistical Forum to discuss topics of strategic cooperation with the heads of national statistical institutes. Keeping pace It’s clear that cooperation is key to getting our job done. But these days, a job well done requires much more than it used to. Central banks need to keep pace with a world that is changing at an ever-faster pace. How do we do that? How do we keep pace? Well, for one thing, we need to be open to new ways of doing things. On this front, I am sure the two words on everyone’s minds are “big” and “data”. It’s true that we central bankers have not exactly been at the forefront of the big data revolution. After all, we are a bit cautious by nature. And we know that big data means different things to different people; and we know that we cannot yet say with certainty which big data applications will be truly useful Big data are quite different from traditional, structured data. So we have much to learn and many challenges to tackle. Collecting the data is only where the challenges start. We also need to adapt verification processes to ensure that the data are of high quality. And this is where big data already pay off, indirectly at least.

Multiple supervisory agencies examine BSA/AML compliance, oftentimes at a single firm, which can result in mixed messages, delays, and overlapping and redundant work for you and for us. This is an area that warrants additional attention. Third, there are several other areas where the industry and supervisory community should consider working together, including issues like conflicting laws/regulations associated with an international footprint; subjectivity in some of the AML guidance that drives differences in approach by firms and by supervisors; and, the potential negative impact of AML compliance on the ongoing provision of vital banking services. And, finally, I still wonder whether communication has reached far enough into organizations to ensure that decisions made at both the top of the house and at the ground level don’t expose firms to ongoing AML/BSA risks. Weak BSA/AML compliance programs are often attributable to the failure by the boards of directors and senior management to actively and meaningfully promote AML compliance as a priority and take responsibility for it. AML needs to be managed on an enterprise-wide basis, while also addressing the unique aspects of every business line. 4. Culture  This last point brings me to my final thought – on culture.
The poor credit performance, particularly as regards lending in foreign currency and credit to businesses was translated into an annual shrinkage of 2% in the loan portfolio in February. Looking ahead, our baseline projections suggest that, after a weak performance in 2013, the trajectory of the Albanian economy will be upward in the medium-term horizon. Economic growth is expected to be more balanced during 2014, driven by both the domestic and external demand. The improvement of confidence climate will enable the real sector to benefit from the monetary stimulus, hence stimulating consumption and investments at home. Also, sustainable recovery of the world economy will sustain Albanian exports, particularly during the second half of the year. Economic growth will be supported by maintaining the current stimulating direction of economic policies, and will benefit from continuing structural reforms. This trajectory will bring the Albanian economy close to its potential and will establish the conditions for complying with the inflation target in the medium term. In the short term, the cyclical weakness of aggregate demand is expected to keep the economy below its potential and will be accompanied with weak inflationary pressures. With 90% probability of occurrence, four quarters ahead, inflation is expected to range between 0.5% – 3.9%. At the end of discussions, the Supervisory Council decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged, at 2.75%.

At the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  same time, we will continue to contribute to Chile’s development and welfare with what is our duty, namely the stability of our currency and the normal functioning of internal and external payments. Thank you. Figure 1 Inflation and expectations (annual change, percent) 6  6 5  4  4 3  2  2 1 0  0 13  Jul. Headline  14  Jul. Expectations at December 2014 (EES) (*)  (*) November and December calculations based on expected monthly variation as reflected in the EES. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE). Figure 2 Domestic demand components (annual change, percent) 30  60  20  40  10  20  0  0  -10  -20  -20  -40 09  10  11  Private consumption Gross fixed capital formation  12  13  14  Durables consumption GFCF machinery & equipment  Source: Central Bank of Chile. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 3 Current account (*) (percent of GDP) 28  9  26  6  24  3  22  0  20  -3  18  -6  16  -9 05  06  07  08  Saving  09  10  Investment  11  12  13  14  Current account  (*) Accumulated in one moving year. Source: Central Bank of Chile.
Only when they begin their debt payment, would they realize that out of a total loan of 10,000 baht, and a monthly installment of 600 baht every month, they would need up to eight years to repay the aggregate amount of debt! Ladies and Gentlemen, The Bank of Thailand has also sought for the expansion of our regulatory framework to oversee the personal loan business. The Ministry of Finance has issued a notification giving authority to the Bank of Thailand on July 2005 to set the ceiling on interest rates at 28% per annum. Every enterprise now needs to register for a license and bring its ceiling rate down to no more than 28% per annum. Likewise, the Bank of Thailand has urged these licensed operators to clearly and transparently disclose the computation of their interest rate calculation in order to prevent confusion among consumers. Currently, we are monitoring closely the situation of consumer loans. If any further problems arise, the Bank of Thailand will not hesitate to take appropriate action. Ladies and Gentlemen, The proliferation of credit card and personal loan businesses have provided greater opportunity for people to spend more on necessary items before they start to save. This way of life would do no harm if individuals exercised self-control on their spending and were able to evaluate their capability to meet the expense of each installment. However, the effect of this easier means of payment is more likely to stimulate people to buy at the wrong time.

I applaud the proactive efforts by financial advisers to publish educational and informative pieces on social and mainstream media platforms. And I look forward to the continuation of such efforts and more effective partnership with the MFPC in other FEN initiatives moving forward. We have seen enough misinformation being peddled on social media by self-proclaimed financial gurus, who have irresponsibly advised borrowers that are not facing distress to seek loan 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  moratoriums, or to channel the savings from deferred loan repayments into other higher risk investments as a way of making a quick buck. What they fail to mention is that while it helps in easing cash flow problems for those affected, moratoriums do come at the cost of higher overall borrowing costs to the consumers, who may even be faced with the prospect of loan defaults should these short-term investments go sour. With the recent announcement of the enhanced iSinar package, we anticipate that similar unethical advice will surface again to encourage EPF account holders who are not in financial distress to make withdrawals from their Account 1 for reinvestment into far riskier investment assets. In such circumstances, I expect all financial practitioners to serve as a source of sound financial advice to counter such unscrupulous publications and to dissuade your clients from making irrational financial decisions that are not in their best interests.
This possibility was created on 16 March 2023 based on an emergency ordinance by the Federal  Page 4/6  Zurich, 23 March 2023 Thomas Jordan, Martin Schlegel and Andréa M. Maechler  News conference  Council. The emergency ordinance allows for emergency liquidity assistance of up to CHF 100 billion without collateral being delivered. However, the claim is secured by means of preferential rights in bankruptcy proceedings. Preferential rights in bankruptcy proceedings mean that, in the event of bankruptcy, the SNB’s claim would be repaid with high priority. Only a few other claims take precedence over the SNB loan, such as wages or deposits covered by depositor protection. Third, Credit Suisse can access liquidity assistance of up to CHF 100 billion under a public liquidity backstop (PLB). This possibility was also created on 16 March 2023 based on an emergency ordinance by the Federal Council. This SNB liquidity assistance also has preferential rights in bankruptcy proceedings. The claim is additionally secured by a federal guarantee. I now hand over to Andréa Maechler. Implementation of monetary policy and international cooperation  Ladies and gentlemen, tension on the financial markets has increased markedly following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. In times of heightened uncertainty, US dollar liquidity is particularly sought after. In a coordinated action with five other central banks, we therefore announced on Sunday evening that we would enhance the provision of US dollar liquidity via the standing US dollar swap line arrangements.

For some quarters now, we have indicated that in order to ensure appropriate monetary conditions, we would consider selling foreign currency in addition to policy rate increases. In the fourth quarter of 2022, we sold foreign currency worth around CHF 27 billion. Foreign currency sales, together with the increase in the SNB policy rate, contribute to the tightening of monetary policy. They help to dampen imported inflation. We will also sell foreign currency in the future if this is appropriate from the monetary policy perspective. However, the development of inflation and thus the outlook for monetary policy are currently highly uncertain; therefore, we conversely also remain willing to buy foreign currency if necessary, i.e. if there were to be excessive appreciation pressure on the Swiss franc. Ladies and gentlemen, I now hand over to Martin Schlegel. Liquidity assistance loans  Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to explain how the SNB is providing liquidity to Credit Suisse and UBS. The liquidity is being granted on three levels. First, both banks have unrestricted access to the SNB’s already long-established facilities. The banks can obtain liquidity against high-quality securities under the liquidity-shortage financing facility (LSFF). This serves to bridge unexpected liquidity bottlenecks in the short term. Furthermore, the SNB provides emergency liquidity assistance (ELA). ELA loans are covered by collateral in the form of Swiss mortgages transferred to the SNB or pledged securities. Second, Credit Suisse and UBS have access to additional liquidity assistance (ELA+).