samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
We must channel it towards productive investments and innovative projects. In view of these high stakes, the Eurosystem warmly welcomed the launch of a new CMU action plan by the Commission in September 2020. Its sixteen legislative and non-legislative initiatives will help turn Europe into a genuine single financing market. The main issue now is to ensure the concrete implementation of the CMU. We still need to better prioritise our actions ex ante, and monitor them ex post. The CMU will not be implemented overnight and remains a long-term project. Developing a monitoring framework with selected priorities and indicators is therefore 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  warranted, especially as the CMU enters an important legislative phase in 2022. As part of the CMU, we have another major financial stability issue to tackle over the next few years: European banks’ overreliance on third-country CCPs for the clearing of financial derivatives. Around 80% of interest rate swaps denominated in euro are still cleared in the UK; this situation cannot continue forever. For fear of market disruption, the Commission recently decided to extend equivalence for UK CCPs until end June 2025. However, Commissioner Mairead McGuinness made it crystal-clear that this extension was the last one, and that the three next years were to be used specifically for a rebalancing of clearing to the EU. I could not agree more.

You must continue to organize and support the necessary training and mentoring of supervisors so that a pool of capable and technically sound personnel is always available and that greater reliability may be placed on their output. During today and tomorrow several papers will be presented on a variety of sub themes and I anticipate that at the end of this conference some critical imperatives would have been identified to steer us through the current challenges and others looming on the horizon. Our confidence in the role of the CGBS has never been misplaced. I wish you all successful deliberations and trust that your stay here will afford you the opportunity to discover for yourself the beauty of our country and the warmth of the Guyanese people. Welcome once again to all. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Consumers with substantial student debt may not be able to meet the stricter debt-to-income (DTI) ratio standards that are now being applied by lenders, particularly on mortgage loans. We believe that student debt growth among new graduates has been higher in the most recent years than growth in their incomes. In addition, delinquency in repayment has become more prevalent among student borrowers, and those with past delinquencies are likely to find it much more difficult to borrow. This decline in credit accessibility is also captured by credit scores. During most of the first decade of the 2000s, those with and without student loans had comparable average credit scores at ages twenty-five and thirty, but since 2010, student loan borrowers have had significantly lower average credit scores. As a result of tighter underwriting standards, higher delinquency rates, and lower credit scores, consumers with educational debt may on average have more limited access to housing and auto loans and, as a result, more limited options in the housing and vehicle markets. This disadvantage may compound the difficulties of young people who enter a depressed labor market; in addition to facing a spell of unemployment that may lead to reduced earnings for a considerable period of time, they may also face tighter future credit constraints as a result of delinquencies on their student loans.

This will, in turn, help raise the comfort level and can usefully avoid potential policy missteps and create policy synergies that eventually foster confidence of investors. This is the kind of trust that no amount of legal text, conditions precedent, or covenants can match, but is developed through the friendship and goodwill among friends within the region. Countries in the same region tend to possess better understanding and coordination, and therefore, policies and initiatives at the regional level can be more effective and timely. Second, while the Asian financial crisis was a wake up call for Asia on the need for regional liquidity facility, Asian countries need to consider making such facility sufficiently large and effective with timely disbursement in light of the current global crisis. During the Asian financial crisis, more than 75% of the IMF’s financial package for Thailand came from the funding within the region. The present global situation has also reconfirmed the vision set for the by the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) that Asia needs to have its own regional liquidity facility to protect itself from contagion, be it caused within the region or from outside. It is therefore timely that coordination and cooperation among countries be further strengthened to ensure that prompt remedial actions can be put in place in light of the ongoing global financial crisis.
The current conjuncture The FPC’s current assessment of the financial cycle is that following a subdued and lowrisk period of post-crisis repair to bank, household and corporate balance sheets, we have now entered a more standard period of risk and credit growth. The stock of private non-financial credit, economy wide, is around 140% of GDP. As I said earlier, the bulk of this is property-related debt. It is growing at broadly the same rate as nominal GDP. In contrast, in the 10 years before the crisis it grew annually at around twice the rate of GDP reaching 177% of GDP in 2009. The stock of household debt relative to income is 135%, down from 155% pre-crisis. In 1992, when Bricks and Mortals was published, it was only 100%. Debt servicing ratios, however, are not stretched at the moment because interest rates are very low – the household debt service ratio is now at 2001 levels of around 8%. But  2  2  For example, Jorda et al (2015) show that a housing bubble combined with a build-up of credit before a recession has more than twice as large an impact on GDP per-capita compared with an equity bubble. BIS central bankers’ speeches  the composition is very different: in 2001 the stock of debt was half the current level and the interest rate twice the current level. There are good reasons why the sustainable level of household debt may have risen over the past 30 years.

François Villeroy de Galhau: Challenges for France’s economy and financial sector in 2016 New Year Address by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, Paris, 18 January 2016. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, Thank you for coming here today to this magnificently restored Golden Gallery. This is the first time that I am giving this address as Governor of the Banque de France, but it is an auspicious tradition that brings us together. I would like to start by extending my warmest wishes to you, your colleagues and your institutions. 2016 has already been marked by volatility: weak financial markets and commodity prices, from China and the Middle East; political uncertainty in Europe, in Southern Europe, in Eastern Europe, North-Western Europe with the British referendum, and even in Central Europe with the refugee crisis. It is our duty to be vigilant, but we must also, on the one hand, distinguish real information from background noise and real challenges – and there are no shortages of them – from the sensational and sometimes excessive statements at this start of this year; on the other hand, in the face of current volatility, we must stick to our mediumterm objectives. This evening I will not discuss the Eurosystem’s monetary policy as we are in the “silent period” leading up to the Governing Council meeting this Thursday. Such longterm strategies also apply to the reforms in Europe and in France.
15  The selection of the President consists of two steps: Appointment of the Reserve Bank president by the Board of Directors, and approval of the appointment by the Board of Governors. For details see: http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/how-is-a-federal-reserve-bank-president-selected.htm. 16  There is one exception, but it has little actual significance. Boards of Directors do make recommendations concerning changes in the primary credit (discount) rate. However, these recommendations only go into effect by an affirmative vote by the Board of Governors. Also, if the Board of Governors wanted to change the primary credit rate and no recommendations were available to act upon, the Board legally could move unilaterally. In fact, what would likely happen in this unlikely circumstance would be a phone call to one or more Reserve Banks to ask for the desired recommendation and rapid compliance with the Board of Governors’ request. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  president about economic, community and business developments in the District, and to ensure that the Bank is a well-governed and well-managed institution. 17 And, although member banks hold capital in the Federal Reserve and receive a dividend set by law against this capital, member banks do not influence the Fed’s monetary and regulatory policy decisions, how policy is implemented or the supervisory oversight of banks. The Dodd-Frank Act also addressed the need for enhanced transparency by establishing disclosure requirements for participation in Federal Reserve facilities.

The key ECB interest rates remain our primary tool for setting the monetary policy stance. In parallel, we will keep reducing the Eurosystem's asset purchase programme (APP) portfolio at a measured and predictable pace. In line with these principles, the Governing Council expects to discontinue the reinvestments under the APP as of July 2023. The decisions taken today are set out in a press release available on our website. I will now outline in more detail how we see the economy and inflation developing and will then explain our assessment of financial and monetary conditions. Economic activity The euro area economy grew by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, according to Eurostat's preliminary flash estimate. Lower energy prices, the easing of supply bottlenecks and fiscal policy support for firms and households have contributed to the resilience of the economy. At the same time, private domestic demand, especially consumption, is likely to have remained weak. Business and consumer confidence have recovered steadily in recent months but remain weaker than before Russia's unjustified war against Ukraine and its people. We see a divergence across sectors of the economy. The manufacturing sector is working  1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  through a backlog of orders, but its prospects are worsening. The services sector is growing more strongly, especially owing to the reopening of the economy. Household incomes are benefiting from the strength of the labour market, with the unemployment rate falling to a new historical low of 6.5 per cent in March.
17  Table 1  International scenario  2023 (f)  2024 (f)  Dec.22 MP Mar.23 MP Dec.22 MP Mar.23 MP Report Report Report Report  2021  2022  Terms of trade Trading partners' GDP World GDP at PPP Developed economies' GDP at PPP Emerging economies' GDP at PPP  11.9 6.6 6.5 5.2 6.6  -7.7 2.8 3.3 2.7 3.7  -1.1 2.1 1.9 -0.1 3.1  LME copper price $ WTI-Brent average oil price $  423 69  400 97  355 81  2025 (f) Mar.23 MP Report  (annual change, percent) 2.3 2.4 2.1 0.3 3.2 (level) 385 73  0.4 2.7 2.8 1.3 3.7  -1.6 2.3 2.2 0.3 3.3  -2.2 3.0 3.1 1.8 3.9  345 76  365 70  350 67  (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 11  Inflation forecast (*)  (annual change, percent)  CPI  14  Core CPI  CPI forecast  Core CPI forecast  12 10 8 6 4 2 0 19  20  21  22  23  24  (*) As from the first quarter of 2023, slashed lines shows forecast in March 2023 MP Report. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute.

These weeks have also seen declines in stock markets and reductions in the prices of some commodities (figure 9). The degree of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the global financial situation is significant. The authorities of the countries involved quickly adopted decisions to contain the impact of these episodes. Of particular note are the coordinated actions taken by central banks to safeguard the provision of liquidity in the markets. Private banks have also made efforts, 4  particularly in the United States. However, there is still anxiety among market agents and volatility remains high. The Chilean banking system is subject to robust regulation and supervision, which prevent situations such as those that triggered the current episode of uncertainty in international banks. The dominant banking business model in Chile is a traditional one. It is focused on granting credit on a more diversified basis of financing and adequate management of maturity mismatches. The regulatory framework has been updated and considers Basel III capital and liquidity standards for all banks. All of them are subject to continuous risk management, capital adequacy, liquidity and transparency supervision processes. In addition, both the Central Bank and the Commission for the Financial Market, CMF, permanently monitor the banks' capacity to withstand adverse events through stress tests. In any case, the shift in the external scenario will have an impact on the local economy.
That is a lesson that nonetheless is gradually withering away. Chart 2 Total debt has barely budged Global debt soared ahead of the financial crisis in 2008. In its wake, a process of private sector deleveraging started in many countries, such as the UK and the US. At the same time, however, government borrowing was increased to address the banking crisis and to cushion the economic impact of private sector deleveraging. The end result now a decade later is rather disheartening. Total debt in Europe and the US has barely budged. At the same time, in other parts of the world, Asia in particular, debt is on the rise. Total global debt has never been higher than it is today. But the debt has shifted between countries and sectors. Chart 3 High private debt in Northern Europe In Southern Europe, there have been wide swings in private sector debt over the past 20 years. From the end of the 1990s, economic growth was strong, but mainly driven by public and private debt-financed consumption and investment. The financial crisis brought it down with a crash. Expectations did not pan out. Since then, private debt in these countries has fallen sharply. Public debt has continued to rise. The countries in Central Europe stand out. Debt has risen gradually, but without wide swings. 2/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  Between these countries and Scandinavia, there are some institutional differences. Housing markets, welfare programmes and pension systems are organised differently.

26.06.2018  Taking up of office by the Governor of the Banco de España  Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Honourable Ministers and Authorities, ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues and friends, I believe today calls, above all, for a round of gratitude. First, I wish to thank Ministers Calviño and Montero for their presence here today. May they rest assured I am firmly committed to maintaining the close and loyal collaboration traditionally offered by the Banco de España to the Ministries for the Economy and Finance. I also wish to thank the previous minister, Román Escolano, for his presence at this ceremony, and for his proposal and defence of my appointment before the Parliamentary Committee for the Economy and Competitiveness. And my gratitude extends to the representatives of the Committee accompanying us today. I undertake to make every effort to improve the capacity of the Banco de España to face the challenges addressed during the Parliamentary Committee hearing. Ministers, as I am surrounded above all by colleagues, I trust you will allow me to continue in a more informal tone. As you know, including a three-year tour at the European Central Bank, I now have two decades behind me at the Banco de España. Professionally speaking, this is, then, my home. It is a real honour for me to have been appointed governor.
In this context it is important to note that these opportunities are now also available to the other nine new Member States, so that the benefits of membership cannot be taken for granted. On a macro level, success in this endeavour will depend on the overall competitiveness of the economy; and, on a micro level, on the efficiency with which the country’s resources are utilised and on the ability of the business community to identify profitable opportunities and exploit them in the new operating environment. It is to these issues that I next turn my attention. Policy orientations for growth There are no easy or short-cut solutions to promote economic growth in Malta. Measures aimed at stimulating demand, through fiscal or monetary expansion, can only be effective in the short term. And in any case, their impact is limited. This is because they do not help to expand the economy’s supply capabilities, which is a prerequisite for sustained growth. In the current situation characterised by high fiscal and external deficits, moreover, the stimulation of aggregate demand would do more harm than good to the country’s economic prospects. Living standards can only be raised on a sustained basis if we succeed in adding value to imported inputs and by providing services in a manner that is cost-effective in relation to our competitors. With regard to growth-oriented policies, inspiration can be obtained from a number of EU programmes, including the Lisbon Agenda for Competitiveness and the Stability and Growth Pact.

John C Williams: The economic outlook- getting back to "more like normal" Remarks (via videoconference) by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at One Hundred Black Men of New York, 25 February 2021. * * * Hello, everyone. I’m really pleased to be joining your meeting today. Your work in bringing together leaders and visionaries in support of Black communities across our city is invaluable. We’re approaching the one-year mark since the pandemic took hold. At this time last year there was an increasing sense of fear and uncertainty about the future. And the events since then have posed tremendous challenges to families, communities, and the economy. The ongoing human toll is a tragedy we won’t forget in our lifetimes. What has been an extraordinary public health crisis also has had profound consequences for the American and global economies. The cause of this recession—a global pandemic—means that our economic future will be determined in large part by the path of the virus and our collective success in overcoming it. We still face many hurdles on the road to recovery from both COVID-19 and the severe economic hardship that has ensued. A lot depends on the success in quickly getting a large part of the public vaccinated against a backdrop of the spread of emerging new strains of the virus. Despite these challenges and uncertainties, I have become more optimistic about the mediumterm outlook for the economy.
Jürgen Stark: Towards a safer financial system Speech by Mr Jürgen Stark, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Transatlantic Business Conference, organised by the American Chamber of Commerce, Frankfurt am Main, 9 November 2011. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a pleasure for me to speak to you tonight at the Transatlantic Business Conference. 1. Looking back to 2008/09  It is exactly three years ago that the G20 Finance Ministers and Governors met for the first time after the Lehman default. In Sao Paulo, on 9th of November 2008, the Group of Twenty recognized that “the global economy is facing its most serious financial crisis and economic slowdown in decades”.1 In that meeting, they also pointed to the root causes that have led to the crisis: “[…] the current financial crisis is largely a result of excessive risk taking and faulty risk management practices in financial markets, inconsistent macroeconomic policies, which gave rise to domestic and external imbalances, as well as deficiencies in financial regulation and supervision in some advanced countries.” The G20 members drew the conclusion that “all countries […] must improve their regulatory and supervisory regimes.” Let me in my remarks tonight discuss where we stand with this G20 process and assess, particularly, what has been achieved regarding the financial market regulations agenda. My focus will be on the Basel III framework and the priorities for the future.

Detailed recommendations on the regulatory treatment of shadow banking are expected to be prepared only by 2012. In the EU, work on shadow banking, however is at a relatively early stage, currently focussing on a stocktaking of existing regulations and conducting a data sharing exercise. Finally, let me also mention that the development of effective bank resolution regimes, which has been on the top of the global and EU regulatory agendas, is also a key element of a successful policy response to the recent crisis. There is now a broad consensus that all distressed institutions, particularly systemic ones, should be dealt with by authorities in a way which safeguards the stability of the financial system as a whole and minimises public costs and economic disruption. In the US several banks were allowed to fail in an orderly manner in the recent years, which could provide an example for other countries as well concerning the set-up of an efficient resolution regime in a national context. However, it has to be acknowledged that most of these banks in the US were rather small compared to average European bank sizes and they were almost exclusively national based with no or very little cross-border operation. Therefore, substantial challenges remain for authorities around the globe to establish effective cross-border resolutions schemes, in particular for global systematically important banks.