samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Two priority areas: That evolving regulatory approach is underpinning our approach to two pieces of policy I know are of keen interest to BSA building society members – Basel 3.1 and our Strong and Simple regime for smaller firms. 13 UK Deposit Takers Supervision: 2023 priorities (bankofengland.co.uk) 14 The regulatory foundations of international competitiveness and growth − speech by Vicky Saporta  | Bank of England  Bank of England  Page 7  Basel 3.1 In keeping with what I have set out, the PRA’s proposed approach to the Basel 3.1 standards15 maintains high levels of resilience and is aligned with international standards that we helped shape. The standards constitute a comprehensive package of measures that make significant changes to the way firms calculate risk-weighted assets for the purposes of calculating risk-based capital ratios. The proposed changes will make firms’ capital ratios more consistent and comparable. But we also need to make sure that the new rules work effectively, and in line with our objectives, both for banks and building societies. That is why we stressed in our recent Basel 3.1 CP that it was very much an open consultation and that we welcomed evidencebased analysis and feedback to help shape our final rules. Input from both the BSA and its members is core to that, and we are grateful for the feedback you have collectively and individually given.

Private consumption has been enhanced by wage growth and a low unemployment rate. However, it must be noted that while consumption of non-durables and services has remained relatively stable, durable goods consumption has recovered, partly due to the appreciation of the peso during the last year, and the necessary replenishment of inventories following several years of weak growth and even contraction. Something similar is observed with gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment. Excluding the purchase of non-regular transport machinery, this component of investment has improved in recent months. 8. In our baseline scenario, gross fixed capital formation will experience a slightly positive growth in 2017, after three consecutive years of contraction. A key factor in the negative figures we have seen the last few years is the end of the mining investment cycle, which reached its peak in 2012. More recently the deterioration of housing construction has added, as the boom triggered by tax incentives finished and a modification of loan-to-value norms reduced home sales. Going forward, our forecasts rely on an increase in non-mining and non-residential investment (mainly machinery and equipment). While mining investment will eventually return to positive territory during 2018, the gradual adjustment in residential investment is expected to continue during the following quarters (figure 5).
The credibility of the inflation target must be preserved The Riksbank has been criticised for explicitly using the policy rate for a short period after the global financial crisis to try to counteract the build-up of financial imbalances.32 For a few years after the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the Riksbank and other forecasters were able to observe that inflation had not risen in the way they had expected; from 2010 until the middle of 2014 inflation had been steadily below target. Long-term inflation expectations had also started to fall and there was a risk that the role of the inflation target as a benchmark for price and wage formation would be weakened. In other words, the credibility of the inflation target was being lost. Critics of the Riksbank's monetary policy said that this was because monetary policy had "leaned against the wind". More recently, the criticism has tended to be the opposite and focused on the Riksbank's expansionary policy in the years after this, when inflation was below the target. The Riksbank has then been criticised for monetary policy having focused too much on inflation, being too expansionary and leading to the build-up of imbalances. When the Riksbank takes financial stability into account in its monetary policy decisions, this can mean that the target horizon is shifted, and then it is not surprising that both inflation and inflation expectations can be affected. This need not be a problem as long as it applies for a shorter period of time.

Banks are important Banks are of fundamental importance to the national economy; without them, households and businesses would struggle to make payments. Virtually all payments today depend on various services provided by banks. Without banks, households and firms would also find it difficult to borrow and manage their financial risks. Traditional theory often talks about the three key functions of banks: first, to intermediate payments; second, to allocate credit in the economy, thereby transforming liquid deposits into illiquid loans; and third, to facilitate risk management by households and firms. A well-functioning banking system is therefore a key driver of economic growth. Since the liberalisation of the financial markets in the 1980s, the financial sector has also become more efficient and this has contributed to increasing welfare in many countries, not least in Sweden. At the same time, the risks have increased as the financial sector has grown.3 The unease we have seen during the spring emphasises what I noted earlier, that monetary policy and financial stability are interdependent. I will return to monetary policy shortly, but given the developments during the spring, it is natural to start with the bank problems we have seen and what they mean. Banking involves risks What happened in the United States and Switzerland in March shows once again that banks' activities pose risks to the whole economy. This is nothing new. The risk of bank runs is well known. Such events have occurred many times in history.
Safeguarding the credibility of this goal is crucial for monetary policy to be an effective tool that not only succeeds in keeping inflation low and stable but also helps to reduce the volatility of output and employment. Now I would like to take a look at recent macroeconomic developments and their implications for the conduct of monetary policy. From the high inflation to the great recession In the early part of the past decade we enjoyed relative quiet in the macroeconomic front. Inflation moderated across the world and the economies resumed their trend growth rates. There were some tensions here and there in the region, a mild recession in the U.S. when the tech bubble burst, but the years were generally calm. However, towards 2007–2008 we were hit by an unusual price shock in foodstuffs and oil that triggered a significant increase in inflation around the world (figure 2). In Chile, this shock was visible only in the inflation of foods and fuels because core inflation was contained (figure 3). The Bank hardened monetary policy, but the unusual transmission of said prices to the rest of the economy caused inflation to deviate largely from the target. Several reasons explain the unusual propagation of this inflationary shock to other prices. The economy was operating with narrow or even negative output gaps. The cost pressure this generated combined with the effects of the oil price increase on the cost of electricity (figure 4). Meanwhile, as the crisis incubated, the exchange rate depreciated.

The weakening of the US currency resulted in a further decrease in the dollar’s share of foreign currency reserves. Recently, in an effort to prevent the dollar’s share from dropping too low and with a view to rebalancing, we bought dollars again on a number of occasions. Furthermore, as part of the 2004 strategy, the proportion of government bonds was also reduced in favour of other borrowers’ bonds. The required minimum rating for bond investments was lowered from A2 to BBB, thus covering the entire “investment grade” range. Corporate bonds have now also been added to the National Bank’s investment universe, albeit only those of foreign companies. Currently, roughly 4% of both foreign currency reserves and free assets are invested in corporate bonds. The credit quality of all our investments is still very high. Borrowers with the top rating AAA account for over 70% of the investments. Close to 20% bear the AA rating. The remaining investments have an A or a BBB. The average residual maturity (duration) of all bonds held by the National Bank was kept at 4-5 years. The first investments in equities issued exclusively by foreign companies will be made at the beginning of 2005. The addition of equities and corporate bonds is likely to improve the degree of diversification of the investments and will contribute to the achievement of slightly higher returns in the medium term. The main difference between the investment structures of foreign currency reserves and free assets is their currency profile.
Descending safely: Life after Libor ‐ speech by Andrew Bailey | Bank of England  Page 3  While it is always the right choice to install the safety net to break your fall in the form of fallbacks, this shouldn’t be seen as a substitute for pre-emptive action, ensuring a sure footing on the descent. Active transition ahead of LIBOR cessation remains an important part of easing the gradient of that descent – it ensures contractual certainty and allows borrowers, lenders, issuers and investors to retain economic control over their contracts. GBP bond markets are again leading the way, as we have seen over 50 bonds with a value of around £ billion actively transitioned from GBP Libor to SONIA. [8] Where tough legacy contracts are able to take advantage of that safety net, for example in the form of the proposed synthetic Libor we should be clear that this a temporary solution. [9] Supervisory engagement will continue after the end of this year to ensure regulated firms continue to manage that rump and move those exposures onto robust alternatives where that is possible. As those facilities re-new, in most case they should move to the most robust rate available, where we expect the most liquidity to be – in sterling that will be SONIA compounded in arrears. The use of forward looking term risk-free rates Let me now turn to the critical element of any journey – the destination. The reference rates the market transitions to are important choices.

And while they may remove the reliance on expert judgement, they veneer over the fundamental challenges of thin and incomplete markets through the extrapolation of data. The ability of such rates to maintain representativeness through periods of stress remains a challenge to which we have not seen adequate answers. Developments in sterling markets So what is the position in sterling markets? Back in 2017, a reformed SONIA rate was recommended by the Working Group on Sterling Risk-Free Reference Rates (RFRWG) as the alternative risk-free reference rate to sterling  Descending safely: Life after Libor ‐ speech by Andrew Bailey | Bank of England  Page 2  Libor. This was in my view a good choice reflecting the liquid and active markets upon which it is based. This makes it inherently more robust. Since then, the RFRWG and UK authorities have co-operated on recommending a series of industry milestones to build liquidity in SONIA. These milestones have been positioned ahead of the cessation of sterling Libor at the end of this year. We don’t apologise for this – it is focussing attention, and providing a clear roadmap to support the development of deep and liquid markets in robust alternatives to Libor and facilitating a smooth transition. In line with the RFRWG milestones, alternatives to GBP Libor should have been offered to borrowers since the start of October last year.
But as far as other durables are concerned, the pace of new buying has meant that the stock of them, relative to income, has been rising and is now significantly above average. This suggests that the current pace is unlikely to be maintained indefinitely (there are only so many cars and cookers you need). Chart 10. Shipping congestion has intensified in recent months though cost down a bit 80  Dollars (thousands)  Days  75 70  Chart 11. In the UK, recovery of consumer-facing services output suggests demand is rotating back, but some sectors lag behind Per cent change on 2019Q4  20  Average number of days (lhs)  18 Average freight rate (rhs)  16 14  65  12  60  10  55  8 6  50  Retail goods Hotels and restaurants Travel  4 45 40 Nov 18  2 Nov 19  Nov 20  Nov 21  Average number of days: end-to-end (factory to warehouse) shipments between China and the US. Average freight rate: shipments from China/East Asia to North America West Coast. Sources: Freightos.com and Freightos Baltic Index. Jan 20  Jun 20  Nov 20  Apr 21  20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100  Sep 21  ‘Retail goods’ series is retail sales in volumes. The other series are output measures. Sources: ONS and Bank calculations.

Dec 19  Jun 20  Dec 20  80 Jun 21  Sources: OECD Quarterly National Accounts, IMF World Economic Outlook and Bank calculations. Across the advanced economies in aggregate, spending on services in first quarter of the year was 5% lower than at the end of 2019; spending on goods was 5% higher (Chart 7). Shifts in demand happen all the time and, as long as supply can shift in response, they needn’t have any impact at the macro-economic level. But this one was far larger, more widespread and occurred much faster than most. And, far from shifting in response, and meeting that extra demand, the pandemic meant the global supply of goods was actively impaired. Local lockdowns affected production in many Asian countries and effective capacity in shipping and other forms of transport was also hit. Earlier this year my own guess was that these things would visibly start to reverse by the end of it. Because they were caused by the pandemic it was reasonable to expect the shifts in demand to reverse, and the problems in supply chains to abate, as vaccinations took effect. As yet it’s clear that hasn’t happened to the degree that I, at least, expected. Shipping costs remained very high throughout the autumn; as we’ve seen, energy (and particularly gas) prices took a huge lurch upwards; at the retail level there is no sign yet of any deceleration in goods prices.
Svein Gjedrem: Inflation targeting Address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the seminar on foreign exchange policy issues arranged by the Association of Economists, Gausdal, 31 January 2003. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 22 January and on previous speeches. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. *  *  *  The Norwegian economy exhibited strong growth from 1993 until 1998. This recovery brought the economy out of recession into a period of high economic activity. Mainland GPD and consumer prices Percentage change on previous year 6  6  5  5 Mainland GDP  4  4  Consumer prices  3  3  2  2  1  1 0  0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002  Source: Statistics Norway  SG Gausdal 31.01.03  Growth in the mainland economy in the 1990s averaged over 3 per cent. Inflation was low and stable at around 2½ per cent annually, while it was higher than 8 per cent in the 1980s.

Developing as an invoicing currency, for instance in energy markets or in the context of free trade agreements, would be important steps to gain a global role.viii Indeed, it would create the need to store euros for future trades, and consequently lead to the development of a full range of euro-based financial tools. 3. Safeguarding cross-border payments by technological advances in international financial infrastructures The euro area should remain on the frontier for cross-border payments, including the G20 agenda adopted in October 2021. The G20 roadmap for 2027 has indeed committed to bring profound improvements in this area including in setting ambitious targets on costs, speed, and accessibility of cross-border payments. But the challenge for all the stakeholders, central banks, regulators as well as the private sector, is to deliver and ultimately meet the expectations  Page 7 sur 7 of end-users. This remains a strategic priority for the Banque de France, which in parallel has paved the way for a more prospective solution: namely a wholesale CBDC that could be issued by the Eurosystem, deploying experiments such as the Jura project of cross border wholesale payments in coordination with the BIS and the Swiss National Bank. ** In the 1960s, US Secretary of Treasury Henry Fowler warned that "Providing reserves and exchanges for the whole world is too much for one country and one currency to bear." ix To Fowler, we answer: “We in the euro area are happy to help.” I thank you for your attention and I wish you a good forum.
1.1  External environment and financial conditions  The forecasts are produced drawing on information that characterises the context of the Spanish economy (in particular regarding the international environment and monetary and financial conditions) (see Table 1). According to these assumptions, the expected course of activity in and imports from the main geographical areas with which Spain trades were revised downwards over the course of 2018. The resulting growth rates for Spain’s export markets in 2019 were estimated at slightly over 3%, a similar rate to that forecast for 2018, but significantly lower than that observed in 2017. The price of oil per barrel is expected to stand below $ on average in 2019, 6% less than in 2018. Finally, I should stress that borrowing conditions for households and firms are expected to remain easy. Allow me to go into greater detail on some of the above. Regarding the international environment, the world economy admittedly ended 2018 maintaining a broadly expansionary course. But the signs of an across-the-board slowdown are evident, albeit more marked in some regions than in others. Largely, this is in response to the partial materialisation of certain focal points of uncertainty, assailing the world economy since early last year. These include most notably the trade tensions between the United States and China, the uncertainty over the terms of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) and some tightening of global financial conditions.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Developing a strong and dynamic SME sector Keynote address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Launch of SME Credit Bureau, Kuala Lumpur, 16 April 2009. *  *  *  Introduction It is my pleasure to be here this morning to speak at the launch of the SME Credit Bureau. The development of a strong and dynamic SME sector is a priority on our national agenda to promote a vibrant and active SME sector that will contribute towards generating a sustainable and balanced economic growth. Malaysia has therefore adopted an aggressive SME development programme to strengthen the viability and capacity of the SMEs to increase their contribution to high quality growth of the economy. Over the recent five years, the SMEs contribution to economic growth has increased. Indeed, the SME contribution to economic growth in the manufacturing sector has increased from 6% of real gross domestic product in 2001 to 8.4% in 2005. The overall SME contribution to the gross domestic product has increased to 32% while 19% of total exports are by SMEs. Experience has shown in several of the developed countries, that SMEs contribute to at least half of the gross domestic product. Benchmarked against this, there is clearly a significant potential for SMEs in Malaysia to increase their contribution to the economy. Economic outlook and policy response The year 2009 is likely to be a difficult year for businesses.
One obvious concern would be if a prime broker or clearing bank was paralysed, including for reasons unconnected to its activity in fast markets – say because of a cyber attack. I think it is fair to say that our understanding of how market functioning would respond in such a scenario – i.e. one in which a number of, in particular high-frequency, liquidity providers were denied market access – remains relatively limited. If there is a common theme across all three of my examples, it is the limits of our understanding. None of the points I have raised with regard to market resilience are wholly new. We at the Bank are following developments in the structure of these markets and their implications for financial stability closely, 19  including through discussions within the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC). And as regulator both  of many participants in electronic markets and some of those markets themselves, the Financial Conduct 19  See, for example, Shafik, M (2015), ‘Dealing with change: liquidity in evolving market structures’ and the analysis of the sterling flash crash in box 3 of the Financial Stability Review, November 2016 (pages 39-41). 8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  8  Authority (FCA) too has remained deeply engaged and responsive to those developments which fall under its purview. 20  Likewise, in none of these cases have I argued that there is a risk flashing red that requires an immediate response.

Ladies and Gentlemen, The adoption of a principle-based regulatory approach will provide banking institutions with greater flexibility in deciding on strategic options in a more competitive environment. As the banking industry grows at an accelerating pace, there are common areas where collective efforts by the industry will not only bring benefits to the financial sector but also to the overall economy. In this regard, there is an increasing trend among developed countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia, where the bankers associations have an important role in spearheading initiatives to promote high standards of ethical code of market conduct to meet consumers' rising expectations and demands. The bankers associations have increasingly assumed the role as a focal point for consultation with not only the regulatory authorities, but also by the other stakeholders on policies affecting the financial sector. In this respect, such associations have played an important complementary role to the regulatory authorities' efforts in promoting a more progressive, dynamic and resilient banking system. In addition, banking associations in these countries have also acted as the voice for the industry in articulating the position of their members to promote the interests of the industry. In Malaysia, there are several areas of common interest to the industry which the associations can spearhead. It is, therefore, to the benefit of the industry to reassess the role of the associations with respect to taking forward common initiatives and interests of the industry.