samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In some countries, such as Italy, productivity per employee has even stagnated in the past two decades. Low inflation is a common trait of other advanced economies and a fundamental challenge for most central banks. It therefore continues at present to be one of the central matters for discussion in the academic arena and on the monetary policy boards of the Eurosystem, the Federal Reserve and other central banks. In its latest Annual Report, the Banco de España dedicated special attention to these matters. The report highlights the considerable uncertainty over the factors that may be checking the rise in inflation at the global level. They include most notably structural phenomena, such as population ageing, globalisation, the expansion of value chains and 6  See Chapter 2, “The determinants of low inflation in the euro area and in Spain”, in the Annual Report 2018, Banco de España. 7/16  the attendant increase in competition, along with swift technological progress and the emergence of new forms of marketing and major sales platforms. Moreover, at certain times more transitory factors may have played a part, such as low oil prices and the considerable slack in some labour markets further to strong job destruction during the crisis. The monetary policy response to an extended scenario of slow growth and moderate inflation The complexity this setting poses for economic policies in Europe is most considerable. I shall refer first to monetary policy.

The second half of 2018 saw some positive events: the signing by the United States, Mexico and Canada of the pact replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement; the opening of negotiations for a US/EU agreement; and the temporary truce called between the United States and China to settle their differences. More recently, however, in May and June this year, there was a fresh escalation in trade tensions between China and the United States. US tariffs on $ billion worth of Chinese product imports were raised from 10% to 25%, and the response by the Chinese authorities was to raise tariffs on US imports. At the G20 summit in Osaka in late June, the two countries reached an agreement to reinitiate trade negotiations. Yet despite this, and the fact that the United States subsequently announced the suspension of certain restrictions on US companies selling technological equipment to specific Chinese firms, August saw a new episode in the escalation of tensions in the trade war between the two countries. Moreover, the United States, which has accused the Chinese authorities of manipulating the exchange rate, has postponed until November its decision on potential tariff increases on cars and their components, a measure that would mainly harm the EU and Japan. 1  See Box 1.1, “The global impact of a hypothetical economic slowdown in China”, in the Annual Report 2018, Banco de España, and Box 2, “Economic policy room for manoeuvre in China”, in the “Quarterly report on the Spanish economy”, Economic Bulletin, 2/2019, Banco de España.
Page 13 of 18  Table 3 Domestic scenario (annual change, percent)  2018  GDP Mining GDP Non-mining GDP Domestic demand Domestic demand (w/o inventory change) Gross fixed capital formation Total consumption Goods and services exports Goods and services imports Current account (% of GDP) Gross national savings (% of GDP) Nominal gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)  4.0 5.2 3.9 4.7 3.9 4.7 3.7 5.0 7.6 -3.1 19.6 21.3  2019 (f)  2020 (f)  2021 (f)  Mar. '19 Jun. '19 Report Report  Mar. '19 Jun. '19 Report Report  Mar. '19 Report  Jun. '19 Report  3,0-4,0  2,75-3,5  3,0-4,0  3,0-4,0  2,75-3,75  3.0-4.0  3.7 3.9 6.2 3.3 3.6 4.5 -2.9 20.1 21.8  2.9 3.4 4.5 3.1 0.6 0.6 -2.9 19.9 21.8  3.5 3.7 4.3 3.5 2.9 2.9 -2.7 20.3 22.0  3.8 3.9 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.3 -2.8 20.2 22.1  3.3 3.5 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.6 -2.7 20.4 22.2  3.5 3.5 4.1 3.4 2.7 2.7 -2.8 20.5 22.3  (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile. Millares  Figure 8 OGPS: Survey of investment projects (*)  CBC: Survey of investment projects  (billions of dollars)  (billions of dollars)  25 20  25 15  2019 2018  15  Dec.'18 Sep.'18 Mar.

It must be noted that this occurs in the context of high inventory buildup towards the end of 2018 and the increased uncertainty surrounding the external scenario. In any case, the other part of investment—construction and other works—has remained dynamic and forward going forward signs are still positive. On one hand, related stock market data point to a favorable development. On the other, the large-scale investment projects that are currently in progress—especially in mining—do not register delays and have been unfolding according to plan. Along the same lines, the various surveys of investment projects have not seen any downward and continue to foresee larger amounts for 2019-2020, compared with the amounts invested in the period 2017-2018 (Figure 8). Turning to concessions, the authorities have announced a significant increase in them as from 2020, in particular in hospitals, roads and airports. Add to this the announced approval of a set of complementary works that will be executed in 2019 and 2020. The information of the Association of Engineering Consulting Firms (AIC) for the first quarter of 2019 shows that detail engineering—which covers projects scheduled for one or two years ahead—shows high annual growth rates. In terms of housing investment, although it began the year with a zero contribution to construction GDP, sales remain high and the outlook reflected in the May Business Perceptions Report is positive. In any case, the Monthly Entrepreneurs Confidence Index (IMCE) for the construction sector posted a decline most recently but is still higher tan its all-time average.
All of those who are or have been members of the Executive Board agree, I am sure, with the general wording that the Riksbank is to stabilise inflation around 2 per cent and, in addition, to stabilise the real economy. But after that I believe that the views differ quite substantially as to how far one can go in using theory when conducting practical monetary policy. The reaction many people probably have is that if one were to reduce monetary policy to a choice between dots on the figure I showed you, it would make it appear as though monetary policy had an exactness that does not actually exist. My guess is that this scepticism is not unique to the Executive Board of the Riksbank, but is shared by other countries’ monetary policy committees. Differences are good Essentially, it is positive that the members of the Executive Board have fairly different views on things. When the Executive Board was established in 1999 there was a more or less explicit aim that it would consist of people with different backgrounds, experience and knowledge. This type of diversification appears to be something that most countries with monetary policy committees strive to attain. One reason for this is that there is a widespread belief that committees tend to make better decisions than individual policymakers, as a committee can “pool” its experiences and knowledge.8 The decision can thus be made on a broader and better basis.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Inflation and economic activity – are we at a crossroads? Summary of a lunchtime discussion by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the “Geneva Financial Center” organisation, Geneva, 28 August 2006. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  While the world economy is experiencing exceptionally vigorous expansion and inflationary pressure is contained, there is still a certain amount of uncertainty. Will the economy turn down again and inflation accelerate? The Swiss National Bank is not working with a scenario of imminent weakness in the global economy, even if the rate of growth slows somewhat. Certainly, the US economy appears to be heading for a soft landing, and economic activity in Europe is also likely to increase less rapidly in the second half of the year. On the price front, the recent surge in inflation in the consumer price index was largely attributable to the cost of goods and services directly linked to energy prices, while core inflation remained at a relatively low level. Given the slowdown in global spending and the normalisation of monetary conditions, inflationary pressures are likely to remain restrained. This assessment also applies to Switzerland.
It’s not easy being green – but that shouldn’t stop us: how central banks can use their monetary policy portfolio to support orderly transition to net zero Speech given by Andrew Hauser, Executive Director, Markets  At Bloomberg 21 May 2021  This speech launches, and draws heavily on, the Discussion Paper ‘Options for greening the Bank of England’s corporate bond purchase scheme’. That paper was produced by an internal team led by Matt Trott, and I am hugely grateful to him, Sadia Arif, Andrew Bailey, Ryan Barrett, Beth Blowers, Sarah Breeden, Jon Bridges, Rohan Churm, Eleanor Eden, Chris Faint, Bianca Ginelli Nardi, Maggie Illingworth, Zane Jamal, Josh Jones, Rebecca Maher, Nick McLaren, Tom McLaren, Rhys Philips, Dave Ramsden, Francine Robb, Philip Temme, Thomas Viegas and Sebastian Walsh for their input both to the Discussion Paper and this speech  1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  Introduction I am delighted to be with you here today to launch our Discussion Paper on greening central bank asset portfolios. The Paper sets out our analysis and proposals in detail.

Developments in the PRA’s supervision of annuity providers Speech given by Charlotte Gerken, Executive Director Insurance Supervision The 18th Conference on Bulk Annuities 29 April 2021  I would like to thank Anu Ralhan and Rob West for their help in preparing these remarks. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  Thank you to Westminster and City for inviting me to speak at your bulk purchase annuities conference. At the time the 2020 conference was scheduled to take place, we were all grappling with the early impacts of the COVID 19 pandemic on our work, our lives and loved ones. In the months since, life insurers’ staff have worked hard and in challenging circumstances to serve their customers in very difficult times. As companies, life insurers have so far come through the pandemic well. That is not to say things have been perfect, but we recognise the commitment of firms and their staff to ensuring business continuity – particularly important when considering in the case of annuity providers that an annuity may be a substantial portion of the retirement income of the recipient.
They carried out a large research project which used a new survey approach to measure management practices in a systematic way in more than 4,000 manufacturing firms across Europe, the US and Asia. The aspects of management practices their approach focuses on are systematic performance monitoring, setting appropriate targets, and providing incentives for good performance. They showed that firms with better management practices are larger, more productive, grow faster, and have higher survival rates. A conservative estimate indicates that differences in management practices  2  See Nicholas Bloom, 2011, “The uncertainty shock from the debt disaster will cause a double-dip recession”, VoxEU.org, 22 August; and Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 2012, “The Rocky Balboa recovery”, VoxEU.org, 20 June. 3  There is a vast body of literature that builds on Nicholas Bloom’s uncertainty research. I will only name a few papers which involved ECB researchers. Using German data, Popescu and Smets find that uncertainty shocks are less important drivers of business cycles compared to financial risk aversion shocks; see Adina Popescu and Frank Smets, 2009, “Uncertainty, risk-taking and the business cycle in Germany”, CESifo Economic Studies 56(4), 596–626. Bekaert et al. document that a lax monetary policy in the US decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being stronger; see Geert Bekaert, Marie Hoerova and Marco Lo Duca, 2013, “Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(7).

Second, in Switzerland - as, incidentally, also in Japan - the so-called BalassaSammelson effect probably also plays a role. It rests on the fact that the productivity trend in the internationally active part of our economy proved to be much more vigorous than in the less competitive domestically-oriented sectors. It remains to be seen whether, and if so, to what extent, the deregulation of various formerly protected areas of our economy will cause this effect to disappear. The upside trend of our exchange rate development, however, is not really a problem. This is evidenced by the remarkably strong performance of the export sector since 1973 as well as by the favourable trend of our terms of trade which showed an average improvement of 0.8% per year. On the contrary: the appreciation is a clear sign of the confidence placed in our currency. It has a positive effect on prosperity since the purchasing power of a given income in Swiss francs increases in the wake of falling import prices. By contrast, the individual periods of massive and prolonged deviations from the trend proved to be a serious handicap for macro-economic development. No doubt, such shocks are a major stability risk for our open economy even if, fortunately, they are a rare occurrence. Conclusions for monetary policy Let me now turn to monetary policy, focusing first on recent developments followed by some long-term considerations. The pattern of the 3-month Libor rate illustrates how we have proceeded since the euro was launched.
The financial sectors of the new Accession Countries have undergone huge and substantial reforms over last 13 years. When communism collapsed, there were no traces of a market economy, no free and legal entrepreneurial economic activity, and no institutions necessary for the functioning of a market economy. If we look at the transition economies - which represent 8 out of 10 acceding countries - today, we see a completely different picture. The basic institutions are in place and running (though sometimes slowly and not always predictably). The private part of the economy flourishes and is the symbol of a new and well functioning economy. How did this happen? And what happened to the financial sector? And what will be the impact of the accession to the EU on the financial sector, which in the accession countries is synonymous with the banking sector. In 1990, the average starting point for reforms in the former socialist countries, the situation in the financial sector was bleak. There were no services aside from basic banking and insurance functions. The banking sector was comprised of few specialized institutions, each of them a monopoly in its own area [one institution had monopoly on collecting deposits from the public, another institution provided all the foreign trade financing, and yet another institution was allowed to open accounts for individuals with foreign exchange incomes].

The question now, of course, is where do we go from here. There have recently been encouraging, but still tentative, signs that the worst of the global slowdown may now be behind us, and that the US and Eurozone economies are now beginning to bottom out and will pick up, perhaps to around trend, as we go through this year. Some Asian countries actively involved in the ICT sector are showing a strong recovery, and even in Japan financial markets have recently strengthened. As for the exchange rate, the euro, which has, as I say, been puzzlingly weak since soon after its introduction 3 years ago, still seems likely to strengthen eventually. As it becomes clearer that the international environment really is improving, and that external demand really is picking up, then we can look forward to better balanced and generally stronger growth in our own economy. That will in due course mean that domestic demand growth - and consumer demand growth in particular - will need to moderate if we are to avoid a build up of inflationary pressure. But let me be quite clear - that's not a warning, still less is it a threat. It is essentially just a matter of arithmetic! It's quite possible, even quite likely, that the necessary moderation of consumer demand - and I emphasise the word moderation - will come about of its own accord, given the gradual increase in unemployment we are currently seeing, and the build up of household debt.
In addition, INCEIF's flagship programme, the Chartered Islamic Finance Professional (CIFP) offers the world's first professional certification programme in Islamic finance aims to nurture skilled talent pool for Islamic finance. Let me conclude my remarks. The global Islamic finance industry has evolved from a faithbased to a business driven industry for all communities. With total global Islamic financial assets amounting to only 40% of the largest conventional bank and with only 300 players compared to 23,000 conventional players globally, competitive pressure moving forward are likely to be intense. But with the underlying strength inherent in Islamic finance and its potential role in bringing together different parts of the world with surplus funds in search of investment opportunities to those with financing requirements accords tremendous opportunities to be drawn from Islamic finance. The combined efforts and collaborative  4  BIS Review 6/2008  alliances will pave the way for mutually reinforcing developments that will contribute to the overall international finance system and global economic prosperity. BIS Review 6/2008  5

I hope that we could learn a great deal from one another in this traditional session, particularly on how we should prepare ourselves for those potential risks in order to maintain internal as well as regional economic stability. In addition, I believe that the Meeting of SEACEN Board of Governors, tomorrow, will continue to play an important role in providing guidelines for future works and activities of  BIS Review 88/2007  1  SEACEN for the years to come. Our guidelines will be important for the SEACEN Centre to pursue its mission and become “a premier regional training centre for central banks in the Asia-Pacific region” according to its vision. Ladies and Gentlemen, This year is a very auspicious year for SEACEN over its 40 year-history as it marks the 25th year of the establishment of the SEACEN Centre. We are, therefore, very honored and privileged to host the Celebration of the Silver Anniversary of the SEACEN Centre, here again in Bangkok, where the Agreement to establish the Centre was signed back in 25 years ago. Over these past two decades, the SEACEN Centre has become increasingly important in promoting better understanding of the financial, monetary, banking and economic development matters. Its role does not benefit only the sixteen member central banks but also extends to several other countries throughout Asia and Pacific region. I would like to take this opportunity, therefore, to congratulate the SEACEN Centre for its work in helping bind together our community of central banks in the region.
Should we not take into account during a broad purchase programme of securities the fact that government securities in the euro area are not without credit risk? There are very few shared competencies in fiscal policy. As long as this is the case, the ECB’s purchase of government securities is inevitably linked to a serious incentive problem. After all, the required cost-benefit considerations should also take into account the fact that other central banks bought government securities in a different economic environment with considerably higher long-term interest rates. In the euro area, the long-term interest rates on Spanish and Italian government bonds, for example, are already lower than those from the United States or the United Kingdom. It is therefore questionable whether we should “depress” interest rates for the securities class even further. Moreover, the interest on national government bonds in the euro area doesn’t operate as a benchmark for all further refinancing operations, as is the case in the United Kingdom or the United States for example. Besides, the effect of intervening in capital markets in a bankbased financial system is weaker than in a market-based system, as illustrated by wealth effects, for example. Therefore with regard to the purchase of government bonds, measures which are obvious in one place could be the last resort at best for us – for instance when there is the threat of deflation, but only if the cost-benefit analysis is favourable. As you see, there are more questions than answers at the moment.

Sabine Lautenschläger: Digital na(t)ive? Fintechs and the future of banking Statement by Ms Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, at an ECB Fintech Workshop, Frankfurt am Main, 27 March 2017. * * * We will never know who did it and when exactly it was done – all of that is lost in the mists of time. But about 4,000 years ago, one of our ancestors invented the wheel. It was one of the most important inventions in the entire history of humanity. Ever since, our lives have been shaped by innovations. Some of these innovations have made our life better – just think of vaccines or the telephone. Others have had more ambivalent impact – think of nuclear power. In any case, it is always hard to guess where an innovation will take us. And it is all too easy to get it wrong. As the President of IBM said in 1943: “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” He got it wrong, it seems. And so did Robert Metcalfe in 1995. As the founder of a tech company, he predicted that “the internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” The internet did not collapse. Instead, it has changed our lives. Could you live without the internet? Could you live without a mobile phone? Our entire life has become digital, and this includes the way we do banking.