samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Prices of unprocessed foods continued to contribute to downward annual inflation, while the contribution of other categories was relatively stable. Inflationary pressures from the demand side remain low and are conditioned by the continued negative output gap and lack of cost-related pressures on the economy. Moreover, low increase of consumer prices has reflected economic agents’ expectations on inflation. According to INSTAT data, Albania’s economy growth rates improved over the third quarter of 2011, posting an annual growth of 2.6% over this quarter. On the production side, growth was supported by branches of the industry sector and services. On the demand side, economic growth continues to be driven by foreign demand, while domestic demand remains sluggish. A similar growth model is assessed to have taken place in the fourth quarter of 2011. Based on the analysis of aggregate demand components, the Bank of Albania judges that foreign demand was the main driver of demand increase during 2011. Although not at the levels of previous year, exports continue to grow. Latest foreign trade data point to our exports annual growth by 20.7% in December. On the other hand, imports accelerated their growth rates in this month, posting an annual growth of 14.5%. This performance is reflected in the widening of the trade deficit by 12.0%, year on year. To a large degree, the trade deficit reflects price developments in international markets. In real terms, the trade deficit is assessed to have narrowed during 2011. Indirect data show that consumption was poor over the second half of 2011.

The expansion of money has been sustained by the increased demand of the public sector for funds at end-2011, as well as the stable contribution of the demand by the private sector. The latter continues to reflect developments in the real economy, being conditioned mainly by weak demand for loans by businesses and households. In December, the loan portfolio of the banking system to the private sector was 10.4% higher than a year earlier. Similar to the most part of 2011, it has reflected the demand of the private sector to fund its liquidity, consumption and investment needs, materialising also the hesitation of the private sector to commit to long-term projects. In addition to demand factors, the supply of loans is assessed to have been more tightened in the second half of 2011, reflecting the added prudence of the banking system in lending. Latest developments in financial markets are influenced by the normal and quiet performance of demand and supply, which is in line with the monetary policy signals. The key interest rate cut to 4.50% is reflected in eased borrowing costs for banks, while it is expected to be completely transmitted to other higher-maturity market segments. Overall, risk, liquidity and inflation premiums in financial markets remain contained. Projections for the expected performance of the economy support the assessment for positive, though below potential, growth of the Albanian economy for the year ahead. Foreign demand is expected to continue to provide positive, but more moderate, contribution to aggregate demand increase.
For emerging markets, both these roles are powerful, and they put the financial sector at the center of any efforts to ensure economic and financial stability in the long run. The third observation is that the turmoil shows that the risk of systemic instability can be greater with financial globalization, and this raises an important question about the appropriate monetary policy framework for maintaining macroeconomic stability. For central banks, price stability remains the first and foremost objective of monetary policy. But in the context of today’s financial globalization when the source of systemic danger is clearly external, the idea that price stability in itself might not be enough to ensure macroeconomic stability is now gaining more acceptance. One approach to deal with this is to combine conventional monetary policy framework like inflation targeting with a macroprudential framework. The latter is aimed at addressing the risk to financial stability by  BIS Review 142/2008  1  implementing measures to counter excessive lending or the procyclical nature of the financial system. This is the approach that we have taken at the Bank of Thailand, and I will speak more on this later. So, the current turmoil is a reminder of things that can go wrong with financial globalization, and the three observations I cited point to the key challenge faced by policy makers in emerging markets. In this context and in relation to the financial sector, the challenge for policy is three-fold.

Being pragmatic means having the right reservation about it, taking a careful step toward it, and be willing to take the needed action to deal with the unintended consequence. This is not going to be easy, but it is probably the best that we can do for now. Thank you. BIS Review 142/2008  3
The fact that economic mechanisms function in this way was pointed out in Report 29 (2000-2001) to the Storting from the Stoltenberg Government and in Annex 4 to Report 1(2001-2002)to the Storting from the Bondevik Government A deterioration in competitiveness can be caused by two factors: high wage growth, or a nominal appreciation of the krone. In isolation, an expansionary fiscal policy must lead to a tightening of monetary policy if the inflation target is to be attained. Without such a tightening, the labour market would be tighter, and competitiveness would deteriorate as a result of rising wage and price inflation. BIS Review 49/2002  9  In the debate, it has been stressed that the scaling back of manufacturing has come faster and with greater intensity than expected. But nor was wage growth expected to take the turn it did. Not this year, not last year, and not the year before that. Wage growth that is 15 per cent higher than other countries (from 1998 to 2003) is bound to have repercussions. The krone exchange rate has also appreciated. But the reaction in the foreign exchange market cannot be called an overreaction when wages have increased so much. The same forces that have driven up the krone, could bring it down if they were reversed. Competitiveness is the ability to pay high wages on the basis of high productivity. For a number of years, Norway has had high wage growth that has not been matched by equally high productivity growth.

If the central projection’s a long way from target, that can tell you something about the MPC’s view of the suitability of the yield curve – given, at least, all the other assumptions in its forecasts. In May 2009, after the first slug of QE, the Inflation Report forecast was well below target. This suggested that, unless the economy improved much faster than it expected, the Committee believed that monetary conditions would need to be looser than implied by the yield curve at the time. As things turned out, that’s exactly what happened. But there are limits to how far this kind of reasoning should be taken. One particular problem, when it comes to the so-called “lift-off” date for interest rates, is that the yield curve is currently very flat. As a result, even relatively moderate changes in forward rates, prompted by unexceptional news about the economy, can result in big shifts in the date at which the yield curve first reaches some particular level. But that doesn’t mean the MPC’s views about future policy have moved so dramatically. If nothing else, this demonstrates the problem with focusing too obsessively on that particular date. More generally, the MPC’s inflation forecast is a far from perfect indicator of interest rates. It involves lots of conditioning assumptions, not just forward interest rates, and any of these can change. Our understanding of the economy evolves over time and the economy itself is always subject to unforeseeable shocks.
The reason that our interest rates remain higher than those in the Eurozone is that, despite the recent slowdown, our economy is operating closer to capacity than theirs. That’s partly why our rate of unemployment is almost half theirs – though the greater structural flexibility of the British economy is even more important in this context. The MPC sets interest rates to achieve the inflation target. We have made it clear by our actions that we are just as vigorous in relaxing policy when the risks to inflation are on the downside as we are in tightening policy when the risks to inflation are on the upside. That’s the best help that we can give through monetary policy. It does not mean that we ignore the external pressures. In assessing the prospects for the overall economy, and for inflation, we take full account of the impact of world demand and of the exchange rate, just as we take full account of all the domestic factors bearing on inflation prospects. When, as now, the external influences are having a powerful disinflationary effect, monetary policy is of course easier, and interest rates lower, than they would otherwise be. That does not – and cannot – mean that we are able to pursue any particular objective with regard to the exchange rate – or that we respond, Pavlov-like, to exchange rate fluctuations.

Security of payments The rapid development of e-commerce in recent years and the increased use of electronic channels to initiate payments pose new challenges related to ensuring the security and customers’ data. As of September 2019, it has become mandatory in Europe to implement strong customer authentication. This means that when an electronic payment is initiated, at least two independent elements from different categories – knowledge, possession and inherence – must be used in the process. In the case of remote payment transactions, e.g. via internet, an additional requirement is introduced to perform so-called dynamic linking – linking the code for each transaction to a specific amount and a specific payee. These requirements are implemented by the payment service providers in our country. For the practical implementation of these regulatory requirements, new technologies are again coming to the rescue. Recently, biometric authentication has shown great potential by providing verification of elements characterising the user: fingerprint, iris scanning, facial recognition, etc. Many payment service providers in Bulgaria have already introduced similar customer identification methods using mobile banking applications. Apart from convenience, this leads to a significant increase in the security of the payment process, allowing the use of biometric data for customer identification. On the occasion of the forthcoming review of the Second Payment Services Directive, a comprehensive assessment of the impact of strong customer authentication on the level of payment fraud is to be carried out.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Developing skills for a constantly changing environment Governor's Acceptance Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, for her Honorary Degree of Doctor of Laws from the University of Nottingham, University of Nottingham, Malaysia Campus, Selangor, 21 January 2006. *  *  *  It is indeed my great honour to receive this honorary degree from the University of Nottingham, one of the premier universities in the United Kingdom . It is particularly special to receive this award at the University of Nottingham Malaysia campus, being amongst the first overseas campuses of world-class institutions of higher education that have established a presence in Malaysia. Malaysia and the United Kingdom have a history of close bilateral relations, reinforced by strong economic and financial linkages that span over a period of 200 years. This relationship is particularly evident in the field of education. The British are also known for being pioneers of strong cross-border higher education strategic alliances and partnerships. In Malaysia , we have seen such joint programmes between local and British institutions of higher education since the 1980s. Malaysia values this synergy and partnership with Britain and continuously looks forward to opportunities to further deepen this relationship on a wider range of areas for the mutual benefit of both countries. Significant new trends continue to shape both the global and our domestic economy. The modern world is experiencing continuous dramatic change.

In today's environment, cultivating a lifelong learning experience is essential to personal and economic success. Lifelong learning involves more than just formal education and training. It encompasses learning throughout the life cycle, at different stages of life and in different learning environments. As individuals, attention to lifelong learning is essential to remain relevant in a highly competitive environment and to enhance our ability to function effectively and in a meaningful way as members of our community. With new knowledge comes innovation, agility and increased productivity that contributes to the overall performance and economic growth process. While it also enables us to adapt to the constantly changing environment, it also increases our capacity to cope with natural emergencies. The challenge then is to embrace the opportunities as they present themselves and to continuously develop new skills and competencies that will be needed to meet current and future demands. The opportunities for learning will be boundless. Technology has also significantly broadened the reach and means for learning, as well as increased learning efficiencies. As you step into this new and exciting world, these possibilities should be fully optimized. In concluding, allow me to offer my congratulations once again to the graduates of the class of 2006. You represent the promise of our nation's future. Indeed, nation building no longer belongs exclusively to the realm of the Government. As professionals, your advancements should not just be confined to those of immediate interest or relevance to you.
Private consumption strengthened, supported by improvements in employment in major sectors as well as government measures to support low income groups, such as the state welfare card project. In addition, private investment expanded with increased investments in machinery and equipment along with greater construction activities as the overall growth became more broad-based. We have seen markedly increasing interest from foreign investors, especially in the EEC area. Consequently, in 2018 the Thai economy expanded on a solid footing, with growth of 4.8 percent in the first half, before moderating in the second half due to slowing global demand. This weaker global demand was largely a result of slower economic growth in a number of major trading partners; a number of country-specific transitory factors; and uncertainties surrounding trade tensions between the US and China. Nevertheless, thanks to more balanced growth engines, the Thai economy grew 4.1 percent in 2018, an improvement from 4.0 percent growth in 2017. It was also the first time in a decade that the Thai economy registered consecutive annual growth of 4 percent. Looking ahead, the Thai economy is projected to continue to expand around its potential, with growth this year will slightly moderate to 3.8 percent as slower growth of major trading partners weighs on the export sector. Domestic demand would remain the key growth driver, as  2/9  private consumption continues to be supported by government welfare measures and underpinning factors, such as employment and consumer confidence, remain strong.

Furthermore, private investment is expected to continue to improve, aided by more investments in the EEC area, further progress in the public-private partnership infrastructure projects, and relocation of production bases to Thailand in industries such as electronics, automotive parts, and rubber. Meanwhile, the tourism sector is expected to continue to expand mainly due to improved confidence and return of Chinese tourists. It is expected that the number of foreign tourists will exceed 40 million this year. Ladies and gentlemen, Although our outlook indicates a sustained growth, a number of risk factors remain. These include (1) The potential impacts from US protectionist policies and trade tensions with China, which so far have had mixed effects on the Thai economy. The direct effect of US safeguard measures on certain products led to slowdown in exports of solar cells and washing machines, though they have had small impact on our overall exports 1. Meanwhile, US trade measures against China could have indirect impact on Thai exports as a number of Thai firms are part of Chinese production and supply chain networks; potential reduction in Chinese exports has reduced the demand for Thai supply. Furthermore, the measures can lead to trade diversion, the consequence of which remains to be determined. On one hand, the Thai economy may benefit from new investments from relocation of Chinese factories. Thai firms may be able to supplant Chinese competitors in exporting to the US.
For conventional demand disturbances, including modest changes to households’ consumption plans, or for one-off shocks to the price level, such as a one-time fall in oil prices, a relatively rapid return of inflation to the target, such as in twelve to eighteen months, would usually be appropriate. When there are large trade-offs between returning inflation to target and avoiding undue volatility in output and employment, this horizon can be extended. In February 2011, in response to a series of shocks to VAT, the past fall in sterling, and increases in commodity prices, the MPC decided to seek to return inflation to target in around two to three years. Extending the policy horizon made sense given the substantial slack in the economy, which a faster return to target would only have increased.7 At present, the MPC is seeking to return inflation to the target in around two years and to keep it there in the absence of further shocks. We don’t want an overshoot of inflation. This two-year time horizon reflects the need to balance the strength of private domestic demand growth against the sustained headwinds from a weak world economy and ongoing fiscal consolidation. External factors – including a strong exchange rate and subdued global price pressures – can be expected to exert a persistent drag on UK inflation. To offset this drag from abroad, domestically-generated inflationary pressures must rise. But this process must be sustainable; that is, it should not come at the expense of future, excessive volatility in employment and output.

The Committee is sensitive to the concerns raised about the need to respect the long-term lending culture prevalent in a number of countries. In this context, we will examine carefully how, or even whether, maturity factors should apply to lending to smaller businesses. Treatment of equity exposures The changes I have referred to concern bank loans, which, of course, are a key source of funding for many companies. Nearly all businesses – especially those growing into medium or large-sized firms – also rely on investments from outside parties to build up their capital base. Here, I’m referring to outsiders who provide “venture capital” for growing firms, as well as to investors who buy the publicly traded stock of more established firms. What do I mean by venture capital? Many small firms seek an “angel” investor, one who sees the potential in the firm’s strategy and is confident enough of its success to make a substantial investment. The angel might be a single wealthy individual, an investment fund or, in some cases, even a bank. In exchange for the investment, the investor receives an ownership interest in the income and assets of that firm. The Basel Committee recognizes that both venture capital and equity investments often are catalysts for innovation and growth in the economy. At the same time, we recognize that such investments can represent high-risk activities for banks.
Stock of loans, by currency percent 100 90 80 70  54.2  57.8  60.3  63.3  63.7  62.7  61.2  56.5  49.7  42.9  37.1  34.4  57.1  62.9  65.6  2016  2017  Jul. 2018  60 50 40 30  20  45.8  42.2  39.7  36.7  36.3  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  37.3  38.8  43.5  2012  2013  2014  50.3  10 0  Share of local currency loans Source: NBR  2015  Share of foreign currency loans  Source: NBR  Foreign liabilities Domestic deposits  Jul-18  Jan-18  Jul-17  Jan-17  Jul-16  Jan-16  Jul-15  Jan-15  Jul-14  Jan-14  Jul-13  Jan-13  Jul-12  Jan-12  Jul-11  Jan-11  Jul-10  Jan-10  Jul-09  Jan-09  Jul-08  Jan-08  Jul-07  Jan-07  Millions  Figure 9. Structure of banks’ funding  RON bln. 350  300  250  200  150  100  50  0  Figure 10.

For the first time in five quarters employment slightly exceeded the corresponding year-back level. The job vacancies indices reveal that demand for labour is gradually rising again. The favourable overall picture is confirmed by the economic barometer of the Institute for Business Cycle Research at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. How do we assess economic development in the near future? For this year, we are forecasting economic growth of close to 2.0%. Growth is therefore likely to be underpinned by both higher exports and stronger domestic demand and to lead to a gradual decline in unemployment as from the second half of 2004. Towards the end of 2005, the economy should again be working close to capacity, and this will influence price formation. Our inflation forecast of March already showed that, given an unchanged interest rate of 0.25%, inflation would exhibit a rising trend as from the second half of 2005. The reason was to be found in improved capacity utilisation and unemployment declining in step with the more favourable economic conditions. This assessment has not changed in any way. The new forecast, adjusted for the 25 basis points rise in the three-month Libor, now suggests that, as from the second quarter of 2005, inflation will fall short of the figure predicted by the last forecast. It makes it clear that the normalisation of the monetary policy course now initiated improves inflation prospects. The monetary development Our inflation forecast is much less certain over a longer horizon.