samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
While the Federal Reserve has a domestic mandate set for it by the U.S. Congress, it needs to be mindful of the international effects of its actions, which can have important potential consequences for the global economy and financial markets.9 A high level of global interdependence also requires robust cooperation and effective international 6/8  BIS central bankers' speeches  institutions. To provide one example, I have traveled several times a year for the last decade to Basel, Switzerland, to discuss economic, monetary, and regulatory policy with foreign central bankers at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). This dialogue—supported by ongoing bilateral discussions between central banks—helps build trust, understanding, and the valuable relationships that are crucial during periods of stress. The global financial crisis put the need for a more robust and resilient financial system in stark relief. Such a regime is necessary if we are to maintain the flow of credit to the real economy— both domestically and internationally—during times of stress. Over the last decade, policymakers have implemented a range of reforms that have materially strengthened the banking system, including higher capital and liquidity buffers for the major international banks.10 International coordination has been essential to the successful implementation of these reforms. Banking is a global business that requires a high degree of regulatory consistency and as level a playing field as possible to avoid distortions and regulatory arbitrage.

As things stand at present neither the  2  BIS Review 11/2002  debtor countries nor their private sector creditors have much idea what to expect, and may be tempted to assume that they will be bailed out if things go wrong. Greater clarity could help to persuade borrowers to face up to hard policy choices earlier, before things get out of hand, and enable the creditors to make a more objective assessment of the risks. I think, too, that it would be helpful if we could at least agree on best practice guidelines for a debtor country's handling of a situation in which it could not immediately honour its obligations. That, too, could help creditors better understand the risks that they are taking on. But while the official community can help in these ways, in the final analysis the buck stops with you, the investors. I find it encouraging that so many of you are attending this conference, at which many of the relevant risks, and how they can be measured and managed, will be discussed. I'm very tempted to remain with you for your discussions, but sadly I have my own job to do, which makes it impossible for me to stay. But I wish you, Padraic, and everyone here an enjoyable and interesting couple of days in what has become the best tradition of this very special event. BIS Review 11/2002  3
Examples of HRH’s leadership range:   From domestic initiatives within The Prince's Responsible Business Network to help ensure UK businesses and communities are resilient to the effects of climate change;    To launching the ClimateWise Principles and encouraging the insurance industry to take a leading role in addressing risks posed by climate change;    To support for our hosts Accounting for Sustainability, who have for many years given practical guidance to firms on how to embed sustainability considerations into business decision-making. I have had the great pleasure of engaging with HRH on a number of occasions, and I can think of few people more knowledgeable about the sustainability agenda or as committed to it. Four years ago, he rightly put me on the spot, highlighting that climate-related risks will have serious financial impacts, and asking what regulators were doing about them. HRH’s challenges are even more germane today as the impacts of climate change continue to mount and the time to act continues to shorten. This year has seen blistering heatwaves in North America and Europe, hurricanes in North America and typhoons in South East Asia; droughts in Southern Africa and Australia; unprecedented rainfall causing deadly landslides in Japan; and now the devastating wildfires in California. The human costs of these events are immeasurable. And the financial losses are significant. Last year set a record for weather-related insurance losses at around $ Losses in 2018 may again be among the worst in history.

Given this combination of immediate physical risks and prospective transition risks, the Bank of England has become increasingly active consistent with our financial stability and prudential mandates. In 2015, we examined the impact of climate change on the UK insurance industry.6 General insurers and reinsurers are on the front line of managing the physical risks from climate change, and they have responded by developing their modelling and forecasting capabilities, improving exposure management, and then adapting coverage and pricing accordingly. One of the lessons they have taken on board is that yesterday’s tail risk is closer to today’s central scenario. Sadly, with respect to climate, history repeats not as farce but as tragedy, with growing frequency. Despite the sophistication of insurers, there are some gaps in their risk management. The Bank is increasingly focused on cognitive dissonance in some insurers whose careful management of climate risks on the liability side of their balance sheets is not always matched by similar considerations on the asset side. With that in mind, we expect firms to consider stress testing and scenario analysis as part of their assessment of the impact of climate risk on their balance sheet and broader business strategy. This will also be reflected in our own market-wide insurance stress test exercises. For banks, the financial risks from climate change have tended to be beyond their planning horizons.
Among other things, financial education would help both individuals and firms establish sounder financial situations and reduce financial risks such as unnecessary exposure to exchange rate volatility. The Bank of Albania has been on the vanguard of financial education in Albania and will continue to spearhead such efforts. Albania needs also to develop further payment systems and improve access to finance for various segments of the society, such as small and medium-sized enterprises or the rural sector. The Bank of Albania has responsibly exercised its duties in the area of payment system development. In this regard, we: Established, in 2015, the National Payments System Committee, to coordinate the work of all relevant public and private sector agencies; Compiled the draft law “On payments services”, which approximates the respective EU directive and paves the way for developing new payment products; and, Improved the technological infrastructure for payments, reducing therefore their costs. However, our work may not be considered as completely finished. Lastly, Albania should pay attention to the development of new financial market segments, such as capital markets and pension and investment funds. In this context, alignment of the legal and regulatory framework is of primary importance with a view to preventing the potential emergence of systemic risks or the possibility of regulatory arbitrage. ***  Dear ladies and gentlemen, Our agenda for the work that lies ahead of us is as complex as ambitious.

The price boom has continued in spite of the generally weak economic activity of the last two years. This is a new experience which differs from previous business cycles, when prices have tended to recede during periods of economic decline. Similar developments have occurred in other countries, for example in the US, England and Holland. The situation could appear worrying, particularly given that the rise in housing prices has been accompanied by an increase in household indebtedness. The upsurge in prices has raised questions about the healthiness of this trend. Are the price rises in the Swedish housing market the result of a bubble? Are the higher levels of household indebtedness sustainable? The Riksbank's view is that the current price developments in the housing market do not reflect any speculative expectations of future price rises which would warrant the term “bubble”. Nor is household indebtedness a bigger problem than usual for this stage of the business cycle. I will explain this in a moment. The other segment is the market for commercial property. Here, it is primarily prices for office premises which have displayed a different trend to that seen in the housing market. Commercial property prices have adjusted to the economic slowdown. In Sweden, both prices and rents have fallen since 2000 at the same time as vacancy rates have risen. I myself do not believe that these price declines are a concern from an economic perspective, as was very much the case with the property crisis at the beginning of the 1990s.
Private sector credit is oriented towards funding the working capital and consumption, illustrating the private agents’ reluctant behaviour to make investments and banks’ high prudence to lend. Furthermore, deposits in the system have shifted towards longer maturity terms, thus illustrating the Albanian consumers’ disposition to save. Latest developments in financial markets have reflected contained liquidity and inflation premiums. In the interbank market, short-term interest rates were downward, following successive cuts of the key interest rates. Furthermore, government security yields in the primary market were slightly up. This increase is mostly due to the interaction of demand and supply factors in this market and does not signal for risk premiums increase in the economy. Interest rates in the deposit and credit markets followed the Bank of Albania’s easing monetary policy over the last six months, while its transmission is expected to be more complete in the future, conform to the time lag that characterises the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Projections for the expected economic outlook in the future sustain our earlier assessments for positive, but below potential, growth of the Albanian economy in the period ahead. However, risks about this scenario have increased, mainly as a result of unfavourable developments in the global economy and financial markets. Overall, the economy in our trade partner countries is expected to be sluggish and lending terms in the euro area are expected to be tight for the period ahead.

Moreover, the space for fiscal stimulus has narrowed, as a result of the orientation of the fiscal policy towards maintaining fiscal parameters stability. Under these circumstances, Albania’s economic growth will be determined mainly by the performance of consumption and private investment. The latter is expected to be driven by eased domestic lending terms during 2012, but will suffer, at the same time, from the uncertainty and hesitation of consumers and private businesses. The Bank of Albania deems that the second half of 2011 marked a turning point towards a more normal consumer behaviour, which should be encouraged and supported in 2012. *** Taking into consideration the information set out above, the Supervisory Council holds that pressures on consumer prices at home remain low over the monetary policy relevant horizon and they have shifted on the down side over the past months. On the demand side, below-potential economic growth will continue to generate low inflationary pressures as shocks from the supply side are expected to be moderate. At the conclusion of discussions, the Supervisory Council decided to cut the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points bringing it down to 4.25%. This decision aims to provide the appropriate monetary conditions to meet the medium-term inflation target. In addition, the easing of monetary policy provides higher support for the development of the private sector’s demand in our economy. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Indeed as a monetary policy maker, that is perhaps the most important question to ask. Judging by the behaviour of measures of inflation expectations derived from index-linked gilts, markets are attaching a low probability to the idea that the current weakness in inflation will prove permanent. Market-implied measures of long-term inflation expectations have been remarkably stable over the period in which inflation has declined (Chart 3). That is consistent with the MPC’s view that the majority of the decline in inflation over the period since the middle of 2013 can be accounted for by factors that are unlikely to have permanent effects on inflation. There has been a 44% decline in the price of oil from its peak, and a 17% appreciation of sterling since early 2013, and such phenomena can be expected to have large – but not permanent – effects on prices of consumer goods. The most important determinant of inflation at the horizon the MPC is concerned with is domestically generated inflation. And measures of domestically generated inflation (such as unit wage costs, Chart 4) have stayed relatively stable during the period in which headline inflation was declining. But what is a little puzzling is that, given the growth of the economy in recent years and the associated decline in economic slack, measures of domestically generated inflation have not picked up as quickly as we would otherwise have expected.

6  Dynan et al (2000) find a strong positive relationship between savings rates and lifetime income. 7  As documented in King and Low (2014). 8  See Summers (2014) and Wolf (2014). 9  The hypothesis that weak post-Crisis growth represents a debt super-cycle which will ultimately come to an end is set out in Rogoff (2015). 10  IMF (2009). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  but they do attach significantly more weight to the downside risks than they did prior to the crisis. 11 This would reduce long yields in two ways: by making firms less confident about the future payoff from their investment projects, thus requiring a lower level of interest rates to incentivise them to invest; and by making savers demand a higher credit premium to lend to the private sector, thus driving a wedge between risk free rates and other interest rates in the economy. 12 My own view is that most of the headwinds that have buffeted the global economy over the period since 2008-09 do bear the hallmarks of a balance sheet recession in which the impetus to reduce debt is the force driving agents behaviour: first by financial institutions who reduced the supply of credit to the real economy; then by the businesses and households who simultaneously became more pessimistic about the outlook and reassessed their need to maintain their own stock of liquidity.
For many families, this distress was compounded by losses of wealth from declining home prices. Since that low point of employment, job creation has resumed, albeit at a slower pace than we would like, and unemployment has retreated by a percentage point. As in other parts of the country, employment in our region declined substantially during the recession. But, the various parts of our region had very different experiences. Employment in much of New York State, including the Hudson Valley, declined less severely than the nation. Both the state and city lost about 3.8 percent of their jobs. Part of the reason for the more moderate decline in jobs in New York during the recession was a less pronounced boom-bust housing cycle. Indeed, as a percentage, the city and state lost fewer jobs during this recession than they did during either of the last two downturns. Now, as in the nation, a labor market recovery has begun across much of the region. Over the past year, New York State has added roughly 100,000 private-sector jobs. Within the state, the recovery has been somewhat uneven. New York City has been gaining jobs for  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  more than a year now – at roughly the same pace as the nation, while to date, the Hudson Valley has seen little overall job growth. Conditions in the Hudson Valley Continuing to drill down geographically, let me talk in more detail about conditions here the mid-Hudson Valley.

In particular, these set out the minimum requirements for systemically important financial market infrastructure and the principles of ongoing system oversight by the National Bank. The task for the next few months will be to determine which payment and securities settlement systems are to be classed as systemically important. Then we will have to define the practical modalities that are best suited for implementing ongoing system oversight as effectively and efficiently as possible. Oversight is focused on infrastructure that is vital for the Swiss financial centre, i.e. especially those systems which together constitute the Swiss value chain. In addition to Swiss Exchange SWX, which will remain under the supervision not of the National Bank but of the SFBC, this infrastructure consists primarily of the payment system Swiss Interbank Clearing (SIC), the securities settlement system SECOM and the central counterparty x-clear. The first talks have been held with representatives of these systems to establish the implementation of system oversight. Investigations over the next few months will clarify whether other systems are also to be subject to oversight. By the end of July, all payment and securities settlement systems in Switzerland must report to the National Bank. As mentioned earlier, system oversight was not the product of a crisis. This can also be seen from the new Financial Stability Report, which examines specific aspects of the current financial market infrastructure and gives them a clean bill of health.
Caleb M Fundanga: The role of financial systems in capital markets development? Keynote address by Mr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the African Securities Exchange Association (ASEA) conference on “The Role of Financial Systems in Capital Markets Development?”, Livingstone, 11 November 2010. *  *  *    The Minister of Finance and National Planning, Hon Situmbeko Musokotwane M.P;    The Chief Executive Officer of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Mr Clement Sichembe;    The Chief Executive Officer of the Lusaka Stock Exchange, Mrs Beatrice Nkanza;    Members of the African Securities Exchange Association;    Distinguished Resource Persons;    Members of the Press;    Ladies and Gentlemen. Let me begin by welcoming you all to this conference and on behalf of my fellow Zambians extend a warm welcome to our visiting colleagues from outside Zambia, to Livingstone. Allow me Chairperson to take this opportunity to commend LUSE and ASEA (African Securities Exchange Association) for organising this seminar and the tremendous efforts made in enhancing functions of the regional securities exchanges. As our countries continue to recover from the recent global financial crisis, the continent requires financial platforms that will facilitate the recovery efforts and provide an enabling environment to meet the various developmental challenges that the continent faces. I am greatly honoured to have this privilege to share some thoughts on “The Role of Financial Systems in Capital Markets development”.

The financial system – including banks and other financial intermediaries, equity markets, and debt markets, solves these problems by agglomerating capital from many smaller savers, allocating capital to the  BIS Review 149/2010  1  most important uses, and monitoring to ensure that it is being used well. At the same time, the financial system transfers, pools, and reduces risk, increases liquidity, and conveys information. Ladies and Gentlemen, let me also highlight the importance of financial markets and how they inter-relate with firms and contribute to economic growth and enhance social welfare. Whether financial systems are relatively simple or highly complex, they perform the same broad functions and share the same key characteristics. Their primary role in any economy is to mobilize resources for productive investment. An efficient financial system channels resources to activities that will provide the highest rate of return for investors. These resources stimulate economic growth, provide enterprises with the ability to become more productive and generate new jobs. Clearly effective financial markets are indispensable to the pursuit of sustained, broad-based economic growth. Unfortunately, financial markets development is one of the most complex areas in the development field.
If the participants were to provide confidence bands around their paths, they probably would be very wide because the economic outlook is uncertain and the linkage between the instrument of monetary policy – the federal funds rate target range – to financial market conditions is loose and variable. In conclusion, I believe that the FOMC is continuing to make progress towards our dual mandate objectives. However, I have become somewhat more uncertain about the growth outlook given the lack of a sharp rebound in economic activity in recent months from the weak first quarter. With respect to inflation, as long as we see further improvement in the labor market and anchored longer-term inflation expectations, I am somewhat less worried that inflation will stay too low. Thus, I continue to expect that monetary policy normalization is likely to begin later this year. 4  Thomas Laubach and John Williams (2003), “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest,” Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4), 1063–70. The FRBNY DSGE model also estimates that the natural rate of interest is currently close to zero. See Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Matthew Cocci, Sara Shahanaghi and Micah Smith, Why Are Interest Rates So Low? Liberty Street Economics blog, May 20, 2015. 5  With the benefit of hindsight, one could argue that the Federal Reserve should have raised short-term interest rates more aggressively over this period. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Longer-term, I expect that the trajectory of short-term interest rates after lift-off will likely be relatively shallow.

William C Dudley: The evolving structure of the US treasury market Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at The Evolving Structure of the U.S. Treasury Market: Second Annual Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 24 October 2016. * * * On behalf of the New York Fed and our co-sponsors, it is my pleasure to welcome you to this second annual conference on the evolving structure of the U.S. Treasury market. We have the opportunity today to continue the dialogue around the changing nature of the Treasury market, a discussion that grew more urgent following the events of October 15, 2014.1 We have made significant progress since last year’s conference in improving our collective understanding of the Treasury market, and I believe it is important to continue official and private sector collaboration on this topic. Indeed, there is much left to do to ensure the continued integrity and effectiveness of this market, and I look forward to the further progress we will make today. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System.2 Over the past year, the Joint Member Agencies 3 have engaged with market participants and other members of the public to gain more information on the changing structure of the Treasury market.