samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
- Separation of the supervisory function from the monetary policy function: officials shall respect the separation of the ECB’s specific tasks concerning policies relating to prudential supervision from its tasks relating to monetary policy, as well as other tasks. - Public appearances and public statements: officials shall carry out their duties and responsibilities as, and consider themselves in public appearances to be, representatives of a high-level ECB body. - Relations with interest groups: while maintaining the open, transparent and regular dialogue with representative associations and civil society required by the Treaty on European Union, officials shall at all times, and in particular in their interactions with interest groups, observe their independence and professional secrecy obligations, and the basic principles established in the Code of Conduct. - Declaration of Interests: officials shall on an annual basis submit to the Ethics Committee, for assessment and onward submission to the President, a signed Declaration of Interests which shall include information about the member’s previous occupational activity, private activities, official mandates and financial interests, as well as about the gainful occupational activity of their spouse or partner, that may raise conflict of interest concerns. - Conflicts of interest: officials shall avoid any situation which may raise conflict of interest concerns.

Thomas Jordan: Decision-making under uncertainty - the importance of pragmatism, consistency and determination Speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Swiss National Bank (SNB)-Federal Reserve Board (FRB)-Bank for International Settlements (BIS) High-Level Conference on "Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility", Zurich, 8 November 2022. *** Ladies and gentlemen It is my pleasure to welcome you to this high-level conference on global risk, uncertainty and volatility. Thank you all for accepting our invitation to join the discussions. I am very pleased to see such a distinguished group of central bank officials and academics. I would like to thank our colleagues at the Bank for International Settlements and the Federal Reserve Board for working together with us in organising this event. The topic of this year's conference is inflation risk and uncertainty. It could not be more timely. This is not to say that uncertainty is a new phenomenon for monetary policy – on the contrary, monetary policy always operates under uncertainty. However, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine has increased uncertainty about further economic developments and inflation to an exceptionally high level. In addition, inflation risks have shifted from being persistently on the downside to the upside. The high level of uncertainty is also reflected in less reliable predictions. Over the past two years, we have had to revise our inflation forecasts continuously and significantly. How do policymakers handle this situation of high uncertainty, upside risks to inflation and limited reliability of forecasts?
We have passed the worst economic trough in several decades and have now entered a new phase of economic recovery. Monetary policy will probably begin to be adjusted to a more normal economic downturn situation in the summer or early autumn this year. And this is a healthy sign. The road ahead of us is certainly not an easy one. New challenges and considerations await us, but we are at the same time more than ready to meet them. The resources that we were forced to use some time ago for more or less acute crisis management can now be partly used for analysis, development of our methods and the work on preventing imbalances in the economy and future crises. No one can say that the latter is a simple task. There are many problems that need to be solved. But we are not alone in this work, which must be conducted on both a national and an international level. As long as we have the motivation and the will to succeed our chances are good. In the most acute phase of the crisis many of the countries of the world joined together and took action to prevent a total collapse. When it has been necessary, the authorities here in Sweden have showed an excellent ability to cooperate. We must make use of the drive and spirit of cooperation that were demonstrated in the crisis.

Radoslav Milenkov: Banking supervision priorities Publication of Mr Radoslav Milenkov, Deputy Governor (in charge of the Banking Supervision Department) of the Bulgarian National Bank, in the Quarterly Bulletin of the Association of Banks in Bulgaria, issue 57, April 2019. * * * A main priority of Banking Supervision is the participation in the process of effective accession to the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) within the three working blocks, on which work is done at the Bulgarian National Bank. The first one is the development of the required regulatory framework. Work in this area reached an advanced stage at the end of the last year with the adoption by the National Assembly of the necessary package of legislative amendments, allowing for the synchronisation of supervisory processes between the ECB and the BNB, including by expanding the macro-prudential supervision toolkit. A review and possibly an amendment of the applicable domestic regulatory framework – ordinances, guidelines – is pending with a view to achieving compliance with the ECB internal technical regulations and reflecting the ECB’s discretionally policy in key areas of prudential supervision and risk management. The second is to continue the process associated with the synchronization of the BNB’s supervisory and prudential practices with those of the European Central Bank, of the internal rules and processes and of the information flows between the two institutions.
In the local context, observing our own inclusion profile, the data indicate visible improvement over the years, yet significant gaps towards, for instance, the euro area as an anchor, are still visible. The percentage of adults holding an account rose (between 2011 and 2017) to 77%, but it is still well below the euro area average of 95%. The percentage of adults making online payments equals 20%, compared to 71% in the euro area, debit cardholders account for 53% of the adult population and 87% in the euro area. Hence, the need for convergence in financial inclusion, among others, by lifting the financial literacy and awareness is apparent. While globally there are visible strivings to enhance the “conventional” financial education, the rapid penetration of information technology in the overall spectrum of financial services does stress the urgent need for digital financial literacy as a critical dimension of the overall education. Digital Financial Services are acknowledged as an opportunity to deepen financial inclusion and expand access to financial system for previously underserved groups. There are several dimensions in this area, that all of us as stakeholders should be aware of in order to provide for an ecosystem with balanced opportunities and threats. The first dimension is the knowledge of digital financial products and services in the area of payments, asset management or alternative finance.

Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: The national strategy for financial education and financial inclusion in North Macedonia Address by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, at the workshop “The National Strategy for Financial Education and Financial Inclusion in North Macedonia: Coordinated efforts for enhancing financial literacy in North Macedonia”, video conference, 16 September 2021. * * * Dear Deputy Minister of Finance, dear representatives of financial regulators, dear representatives of the Dutch Ministry of Finance and the OECD, representatives of the international fora in the country, colleagues from the private and non-government sector, It is my great pleasure to address you at this virtual event devoted to financial literacy and education. First, let me use this opportunity to express our deepest gratitude to the Dutch Ministry of Finance and the International Network on Financial Education at the OECD for their support and high-level expertise provided within the regional Technical Assistance Project on Financial Education. At this very point, I have no doubt that we all profoundly understand the concept of financially literate and financially included citizens, and its importance for the overall prosperity of our societies. As a central bank, highly aware of the former, we have imprinted financial education and inclusion as a separate strategic goal, and along with other financial regulators, we have streamlined joint vision and efforts in the recently adopted first National Strategy on Financial Education.
Thus, the recovery in the services and tourism sectors ensures a rebalancing in the composition of demand in the third quarter in terms of goods and services. In fact, sectoral confidence indices also suggest a significant improvement in recent months particularly in the services and retail sectors. When talking about the recent developments, I would like to place a special emphasis on investments. Data for the second quarter indicate that investments, particularly in machinery-equipment, contributed significantly to growth. The CBRT’s research shows that our firms have a high investment appetite. In the recent surveys, firms operating in all sectors excluding construction have reported that the weight of financial constraints among factors limiting activity/production has declined. We see that the weight of this factor is even below the historical averages currently. Moreover, investment and employment tendencies of firms have reached very high levels compared to previous years. We are pleased to see that the improvement in the employment expectation of firms also continues in the third quarter while the investment tendency remains strong across main sectors. We envisage that as the improvement in macro indicators continues in the upcoming period, as the risk premium declines and volatility decreases on the back of improving current account and inflation outlook, the credit channel will function effectively and stabilize the positive outlook regarding the investment appetite. Although there seems no obvious problem in accessing credit, high loan rates limit the access to credit.

This is really a point of caution for SSA, because there have been calls for the Governments in Africa to emulate the actions taken by developed economies to support private sector companies and the financial sector in general in a manner that expands the reach of government. This course of action needs to be avoided in Africa because it risks undermining both public and private institutions, whose development has been an important part of the success of African economies in generating high rates of growth during this decade. Whilst greater fiscal discipline has led to lower and more sustainable budget deficits, real yield rates on long-term government bonds remain high in many African economies, suggesting that investors have not yet fully priced in the significant improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals and that their inflation expectations remain high. Central banks in Africa are also constrained in their ability to inject liquidity into the financial system by purchasing available government or any other type of securities in the market. This constraint is at two levels: first the financial systems in Africa have not been impaired and the money markets have continued to function regularly, without a significant and prolonged liquidity crisis – largely due to the absence of any impaired or toxic assets in the banking system. Second, credit expansion to the non-Government sector remains strong.
Indeed, as the share of economic activity accounted for business and financial services increases, it is even possible that a growing part of business investment is simply unmeasured. When your teams spend time developing spreadsheets that will be used for 3-5 years, do you count that as investment? So it is difficult to know whether or not the management of risks associated with pension provision has had a bearing on the recent measured weakness in business investment. 5  Nobel Prize winner, Modigliani, F, and M. Miller, 1958, ‘The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment’, American Economic Review 48, 261-297. 4  BIS Review 47/2006  Financial market uncertainties It has, though, surely been an important factor in financial markets in recent years. The most obvious manifestations have been associated with their own jargon: Liability-Driven Investment (or LDI), and so-called ‘alpha-generating’ active-management strategies. LDI involves matching a fund’s assets more closely with its quasi-fixed-income liabilities, via purchases of long-duration conventional bonds, inflation-indexed (or real) bonds, interest-rate swaps and inflation swaps. This may well have amplified the fall in very long-maturity real forward rates, which has been such a puzzle in recent years (Chart 14). Greater asset-liability matching represents a reduction of risk, and so – at least at first blush – does not obviously square with a more aggressive approach to active management via increasingly popular ‘alpha’ strategies. But quite what such strategies entail may need a bit of unpacking.

It provides a new framework for the Bank’s implementation of monetary policy; our operational engagement with the banking system; and for the sterling money markets. I shall spare you the details, but I do want to sketch the main features of the system, by way of underlining that it is directly relevant to you as corporate treasurers. I am keen that you should hear this directly from the Bank. For as long as anyone can remember, a small group of clearing banks – which these days we call ‘settlement banks’ – have had to balance their books with the Bank at the close of business each evening. Volatility resulted if the Bank had not provided pretty well exactly the amount of liquidity the banking system as a whole needed each day; or if our money was not distributed in the money markets to those banks that were short. And traders would speculate on that volatility – perhaps a rare instance of financial market activity with little social utility. The new system relaxes the overnight constraint and liberalises access to the Bank. A broader group of banks – initially just over 40, accounting for around 90% of the UK banking system’s sterling liabilities – will maintain a target balance with the Bank on average over each month. (In the first maintenance period, which started yesterday, the target is just under £ These reserve-scheme banks, and other banks who so choose, also have access to a standing deposit facility and a standing (secured) lending facility.
textiles and apparels)  *Quarterly moving averages. Source: TURKSTAT. 10  BIS Review 67/2006  It is expected that the current account deficit will not pose any risk with respect to economic stability and the inflation target in the short-term. Along with growth in the share of foreign direct investments that have gained pace with privatization revenues, the increase in the share of long-term credits in the credit composition of the banking sector and the private sector eases concerns about the sustainability of the current account. It is predicted that foreign direct investments, which reached USD 8.6 billion in 2005 (2.4 percent of GDP), will prevail at high levels in 2006 as well due to the continuance of privatization revenues and company acquisitions. Moreover, the process of convergence with the European Union is expected to ensure the continuance of international capital’s interest in Turkey. Costs While productivity rose at a high rate in the private manufacturing industry, real unit wages dropped by 8.2 percent compared to the same period of the previous year due to the decline in real wages (Graph 16). The persistence of the drop in real unit wages became one of the leading factors in the continuation of the disinflation process. Graph 16.

Medium-term forecasts Current stance, short-term outlook and the assumptions Current stance relating to real sector variables that constitute the basis for the forecasts presented in the previous Inflation Report have been preserved in this Report to a great extent. Despite rapid growth in domestic demand in the last quarter of 2005, the ongoing increase in the ratio of investment expenditures to GDP eased the pressures on inflation imposed by the increase in demand by pushing the production capacity upwards. Moreover, continuing productivity proceeds limited the increase in costs, thus limiting the pressure on inflation. While producing forecasts, the short-term outlook relating to domestic supply and demand conditions was developed in the light of these findings. Real interest and real exchange rate variables, which determine the relationship of supply-demand conditions to inflation and constitute the starting point of the monetary transmission mechanism, are also significant components of the assumption set that constitute the basis for medium-term forecasts. It is assumed that in the current situation, real interest rates are not at a level that can exert pressure on credit increases and demand conditions. Nevertheless, under a main scenario in which the current program will continue to be implemented, macro and political stability will not deteriorate, structural reforms and, accordingly, long-term capital inflows as well as productivity increases will continue, it is assumed that the New Turkish lira will retain its strong position and will continue to support the decline in inflation.
Thus, in the third quarter, activity, employment, and income figures outperformed expectations in many countries, although there are still major differences across sectors, with trade in tradable goods contrasting with trade in services (Figure 2). China has driven the recovery, with several indicators already matching or exceeding their pre-pandemic levels. This has contributed to the dynamism of international trade in goods, which has been surprisingly resilient and has positively affected the prices of commodities, especially copper, which has consolidated above USD 3 per pound, and even going as high as USD 3.5 per pound, which had not been seen since early 2013. In any case, even if the worst of the economic crisis is behind us and the vaccine becomes a reality, fiscal and monetary support will still be necessary to ensure a less burdensome outcome for the productive system and ample sectors of the population. Chile has echoed the global trends in terms of the evolution of the pandemic and the performance of the economy. The reduction in infections has allowed a significant fraction of the country to exit the stricter confinement stages, giving way to increased mobility and the reopening of several economic activities (Figure 3). However, the remaining sanitary constraints, which escalated after last Monday’s announcement, mean that sectors such as services and construction continue to be badly affected, delaying recovery. In contrast, manufacturing has already reached its pre-pandemic activity levels and trade has even surpassed them (Figure 4).

The arguments against a possible Swedish membership of the EMU have often touched on the opportunity to pursue an independent stabilisation policy. The starting point for this is that the Swedish economy could for one reason or another find itself out of synch with economic developments in the eurozone, what is known as an asymmetrical shock. Having an independent monetary policy and currency would then give us the opportunity to stabilise our economy ourselves - act as a form of shock-absorber, which we will lose if we have a joint monetary policy governed by the prospects for inflation and the business climate throughout the eurozone. This was also the primary reason why the Calmfors Commission's report on the consequences of 1 Swedish membership in the EMU came to the conclusion that Sweden should wait until its labour market and wage formation showed sufficient flexibility to deal with a serious disturbance. However, it should be noted that the Commission was envisaging a “small” eurozone with around 6 countries taking part, whereas now we are talking about 12 countries, representing 40-50 per cent of Sweden's trade. Moreover, in practice the Swedish business climate has rarely come seriously out of synch with the eurozone. When Sweden has done so, it has mainly been the result of mistakes in Sweden's own economic policy and not due to any unforeseeable external disturbance that has afflicted the Swedish economy.
We are working with a ‘toy model’ to make a few illustrative high level points around which to frame the QT discussion. I leave the details of the model to the Annex and discuss the intuition here. The starting point is a money demand equation for an NBFI. This relates the NBFI’s money holdings to the overall size of its portfolio and the relative return on money and risky assets. The implementation of QT implies that the NBFI will hold less money and more risky assets (the mirror image of the thought experiment that I discussed to describe the portfolio balance channel of QE transmission in the previous section). In order to persuade the NBFI to accept this shift, the return on the risky asset must rise relative to that on money. If a QT sale is announced and implemented simultaneously, the price of bonds must fall immediately in order to generate expectations of a holding period return in the future that will justify holding onto a greater share of risky assets in the portfolio following QT. The subtlety in the model is to observe that the holding period return on this risky asset will reflect (at least in part) an expected capital gain as the price of the asset changes. This matters particularly for the asset price impact of pre-announced sales.

‘The role of non-bank financial intermediaries in the ‘dash for cash’ in sterling markets,’ Bank of England financial stability paper no. 47. Friedman, M and Schwartz, A (1963), ‘Money and business cycles,’ Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 312-324. Friedman, M (1970). ‘A theoretical framework for monetary analysis,’ Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 78, no. 2, pp. 193-238. Giese, J., M. Joyce, J. Meaning and J. Worlidge (2021). ‘Preferred habitat investors in the UK government bond market,’ Bank of England staff working paper no. 939. Page 17  Goodfriend, M. and R.G. King (1997). “The new neo-classical synthesis and the role of monetary policy” in B. Bernanke and J.J. Rotemberg (eds. ), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, MIT Press. Goodhart, C.A.E. (1989). “The conduct of monetary policy”, Economic Journal, Vol. 99, pp. 293– 346. Haldane, A.G., M. Roberts-Sklar, T. Wieladek and C. Young (2016). ‘QE – The story so far,’ Bank of England staff working paper no. 624. Hatzius, J., P. Hooper, F. Mishkin, K.L. Schoenholtz and M.W. Watson (2010). ‘Financial Conditions Indexes: A fresh look after the financial crisis,’ Proceedings of the US monetary policy forum. Institute of International Monetary Research (2022). ‘Fifth increase in the Bank Rate  ,’ June. Jessop, J. (2022). ‘Inflation has peaked – prepare for a soft landing,’ Daily Telegraph 3 June. Joyce, M.A.S., A. Lasaosa, I. Stevens and M. Tong (2011). ‘The financial market impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom,’ International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 113-161, King, M.A.K. (2002).