samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Communication with public, the Bank of Albania is already a more transparent institution and in turns more accessible to the public at large. The regular communication of our decisions and views, the organisation and participation in academic conferences, and the rigorous accomplishment in a timely manner of requests for information, are assessed by our international partners. In more concrete terms, the National Bank of Austria in the last report, ranked the Bank of Albania first among all the banks of Central, Eastern and South-Eastern countries, for the level and quality of public communication. Dear members of the Committee, Notwithstanding the successful results that I listed above, I still do not consider my mission as complete so far. Looking forward, I see that the Bank of Albania has a lot to achieve in all aspects. Allow me to briefly list the priorities in my agenda for the second term. First priority is related to monetary policy and price stability. In capacity of the Governor of the Bank of Albania, I have been heedful and I will make sure that the quantity and cost of money in economy enables: the stability of prices; the sustainable economic growth and the improvement of welfare. In the medium term, addressing inflationary pressures stemming by the upsurge of prices in international market will be the main challenge. In my view, commitment to the legal mandate of price stability is a non-negotiable objective. The drafting of a prudential and forward-guidance monetary is required from the successful accomplishment of this term.

Many other central banks are now considering upgrading their payment systems. Payment flows now... Historically there has been a differentiation between large-value and smaller payment, also known as retail payments. The large-value payments include payments between the banks’ major customers, international payments, payments to and from financial infrastructures and the Riksbank's own transactions. This type of payment is often large, time-critical and settled one by one in RIX according to the principle of “first in, first out”.5 Retail payments are the millions of smaller everyday payments made between households, companies and authorities, for instance card payments in the retail trade, wage payments, pensions and normal payment of invoices. Retail payments that are not settled directly are normally first compiled and aggregated by a clearing house (in Sweden by Bankgirot) and then settled in RIX according to a predetermined timetable, this is also known as batch clearing. However, this regime is now being disrupted as technology has reached such a level of maturity that it is possible to send small payments without clearing to reach the recipient in the space of seconds. At the Riksbank we call this type of payment an instant payment.6 This is often called “swishing” in popular speech, after the mobile app used to make the payment. Swish has really taken Sweden by storm and is one reason why the use of cash is declining here.7 Today around 70 per cent of the Swedish population has access to the app and in 2018 almost 400 million instant payments were made with it.
An even bigger increase was noted in long term insurance policies sold through digital channels by retail banks, which more than doubled in the first half of this year when compared with the second half of 2019. 8. Some may argue that the rising trend in the use of non-F2F channels for distributing banking services would have continued with or without Covid. But we could not deny the fact that the pandemic has injected a strong catalyst into this trend. So while we all embrace technology, and very much enjoy the convenience brought about by that, also we must not lose sight of the additional conduct risks involved. We have seen complaints, for example, that sales staff might have deliberately conducted investment transactions for vulnerable customers through internet banking in order to circumvent controls for safeguarding the interests of those customers. 9. There are indeed issues that warrant our attention to ensure that a customer-friendly online journey will not compromise adequate customer protection. For example, on the use of technology such as video conferencing for distributing long term insurance products, the Insurance Authority has provided guidance on measures to address challenges, such as difficulties in obtaining wet signature from customers for the insurance policies, as well as the potential intermittent interruption during the sales process which do not exist in a physical F2F environment.

As you remember, around this period of last year, one of the issues that had attracted a lot of public attention was the continued influx of fund flows into the emerging markets including Thailand. But this theme has suddenly changed when the US Federal Reserve signaled in May its intention to scale down, and eventually terminate, its asset purchasing program. The signaling immediately sparked turbulence in capital and currency markets in emerging economies and certainly serves as a recurring reminder that the linkages in the international economy are as psychological as they are mechanical. From June to August, Thailand, like other economies in the region, continued to witness further episodes of outflows as investors continued to reform their expectations towards the exact tapering timeline. 4. In the recent months, turbulence in the markets seems to have somewhat been moderated. This possibly reflects the fact that much has been priced in during the earlier outflow episodes, as well as the fact that it has been clearer to the markets now that any further tapering by the Fed will likely be done in an incremental manner. This is, however, not to say that short-term volatilities are no longer with us. The challenges going forward for policymakers are, therefore, not only to have the right set of policy responses in place to deal with these short-term volatilities, but also to make sure that all the market participants are well prepared for the scenarios that could be expected. 5.
If there were only “demand” shocks in the economy, so only shocks to 𝑟𝑡∗ , then inflation could always be stabilised by setting the ex ante real interest rate equal to 𝑟𝑡∗ , and keeping the output gap closed. This special case is called “divine coincidence” in the literature. However, trade-offs can arise via the second key “constraint” the policymaker faces: the relation between output and inflation, i.e. the Phillips curve. In the simplest model, this takes the form:  𝜋𝑡 − 𝜋 ∗ = 𝛽𝐸𝑡 (𝜋𝑡+1 − 𝜋 ∗ ) + 𝜅𝑥𝑡 + 𝜀𝑡𝜋  (3)  where 𝛽 is the household’s rate of time preference and the slope 𝜅 can be related to the frequency with which firms re-set their prices. 33  In (3), 𝜀𝑡𝜋 is a “cost-push” shock that drives inflation away from the target for  a given output gap, and is the source of monetary policy trade-offs. The policy problem is therefore to solve (1) subject to (2) and (3). Note that there is a one-to-one mapping between the interest rate 𝑖𝑡 and the output gap 𝑥𝑡 . This means it is ‘as if’ the monetary policymaker chooses the output gap directly. (One can then infer the nominal interest rate needed to deliver this output gap form the IS curve).

Without prejudice to the primary objective of price stability, we have been and remain firmly committed to providing the possible monetary stimulus to bolster economic growth. Lastly, we are scrutinizing the options of supporting this goal with prudent regulatory measures to be adopted in full concordance with financial stability at home. 2  BIS Review 175/2010
That said, the pickup in business start-ups is moving slowly, as it is in other European economies such as Germany and France.2 This environment of diminished business dynamism in net terms might be associated with an increase in the market power of certain big firms in some sectors. 2  See Chapter 4, “Business dynamics in Spain: characteristics, determinants and implications”, Annual Report 2015, Banco de España. 11/18  Additionally, business dynamics in Spain show two anomalies compared with other countries: 1) the productivity of business start-ups is lower; and 2) companies that increase their size are not necessarily the most productive. As occurs in other countries, new Spanish firms are small in size and show lower productivity levels than the average for their sector. This suggests the existence of a learning curve that new firms must follow if they are to converge towards average efficiency. In Spain’s case, however, the evidence available suggests that the productivity gap between new firms and existing ones is greater than that in other European countries. The relatively low level of new firms’ productivity adversely affects both their survival Spanish firms’ probability of survival after three years is low when compared with other countries – and their ability to grow. There is also evidence that, in Spain, the correlation between growth and productivity is not particularly high. In other words, the most productive firms do not always increase their market share.

Meanwhile, in Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russia for energy, rising prices of oil and natural gas are the biggest concern. And in the Middle East, there are fears of a wheat shortage, given the region's reliance on wheat from Russia and Ukraine. The one bright spot regarding inflation is that longer-run inflation expectations remain well anchored. This anchoring is seen in both market-based measures of expected inflation and in surveys of households and economists. For example, the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations has fielded special survey questions on fiveyear-ahead inflation expectations since 2019, and these expectations have hardly budged since the start of the pandemic.2 In addition, the pass-through of inflation surprises to revisions in three-year-ahead inflation expectations is about half as large as it was before 2020. 3 That is, medium-term inflation expectations in this survey are less responsive to inflation shocks than they were before the pandemic. Economic Outlook Faced with rising inflation but otherwise strong economies, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been moving away from the extraordinarily accommodative stances they took in early 2020. Last year, many emerging market central banks raised their policy rates. In December, the Bank of England followed suit, followed by the Bank of Canada this March. Closer to home, the FOMC decided a little over two weeks ago to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point.
After 1 January it gradually declined again in a few weeks to a level of around USD 1.08. So, we have no reason at all to be dissatisfied with that level. It is about the level at which the euro had stood for more than a year. And now - to take a very short outlook, between 6.15 and 6.30 today - the euro rose from USD 1.08 to USD 1.0865. I hope that answers your question. Question: I have a question concerning your inflation target. Can we draw the conclusion that from now we have some kind of informal bottom on your inflation target? Duisenberg: No, you cannot draw this conclusion. We are sticking to our definition of price stability which says that we regard price stability as being an increase in the rate of inflation of below 2%. And BIS Review 39/1999  2  what I said today is that the present situation and the prospects for the increase in the rate of inflation are such that they seem, for as far as we can look forward, also to remain well below that ceiling of 2%. So, inflation is not a danger, which enabled us to, let me say, to pay more attention to the second area of objectives of the European Central Bank - that is to support the general economic policies of the European Community.

Duisenberg: The interest rates which we have established today are valid for the entire euro area and they have been founded on considerations related to the entire euro area and not to any particular country or finance minister. Question: Mr. President, it sounds like you are meeting the governments halfway here with this rate cut. Especially the German government was calling for the rate cut to help with the unemployment problem. Now you are saying: here is your rate cut, fix the unemployment problem. Is that part of the decision to cut rates? Duisenberg: No, it is not part of the decision, but I do not have that much difficulty with your words. Question (translation): President Duisenberg, as yet, people do not have euro money in their hands. What is your message for Europeans in general with this interest rate cut? Duisenberg: Well, I had ”Eurogeld in der Hand” today. It looked quite good, as I told you. And my message to the people who will have euro money in their hands in two years time and who are already in the process today of getting used to it, more and more, as everybody can notice who travels around across Europe, the message I have is that, today’s measures should increase the confidence of the people, of the “Otto Normalverbraucher” in the institution that manages their money, in the European Central Bank as the guardian of their values.
askPRU is also expected to reduce 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  call volumes at its contact centre by 30 per cent, freeing up call centre staff to assist customers and consultants with more complex queries. Financial consultants are also equipped with PRUONE Express, a digital point-of-sale portal which uses fingerprint authentication by agents, and SmartData Capture and is able to generate a detailed quotation within three seconds, enabling agents to discuss and assess possible protection plans with their clients on the spot. Ultimately, the role of the insurance agent will continue to evolve: from selling standalone life or health insurance products, to more holistic wealth and risk management advice, and in essence to being a truly trusted advisor. Given the growing 13.  demand for risk management and compliance related roles in the industry, I also encourage insurers to consider reskilling some of their agents to take on such roles. 14. Prudential‘s new office, which is designed to promote maximum mobility, productivity, innovation and healthy living amongst its employees, echoes the aspirations of Asia’s insurance consumers. It will continue to play an important role in meeting the protection needs of the next generation of Asia’s consumers. Once again, my warmest congratulations to Prudential on the opening of its new office. 1 The global record for a fastest insurance claim was set in December last year by renter’s insurance start-up  Lemonade’s artificial intelligence Jim in the US, which settled a claim for the theft of a $ parka within 3 seconds.

It is difficult to predict whether this tightening will continue, although money market rates (the main benchmark in Spanish mortgage loans) now contain a substantial risk premium over the ECB’s official rates, currently at 4.25%. In addition, the adjustment phase will lead to a decrease in the high debt of households, which is a necessary step for them to be able to drive a fresh phase of high growth. As in the case of firms, households will also have to be asked to adapt to the changes. Above all, this calls for a greater effort in training, acquiring professional skills and versatility. It would also be useful if energy saving could be included in households’ day-to-day activities, although, as in other areas, the provision of proper incentives by the authorities (particularly through energy price and taxation policies) is crucial. I would like to end with a message of confidence on the Spanish economy’s capacity for growth: the country’s productive foundations are much more solid than in the past and there has been a process of convergence with average European income levels which is unlikely to be reversed. Spain is a stronger economy than at the start of the 1990s and its productive and market structures are more flexible and modern. Moreover, macroeconomic stability is assured: the inflation rate will probably be closer to the European average in 2009 and 2010 and the markets expect interest rates to continue at relatively moderate levels, far from the double-digit levels of the 1980s and 1990s.
The governor of Norges Bank is also required once a year – first in 2003 – to appear at an open hearing on monetary policy of the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs. What can we learn from history? We can learn from history. The experience of the 1970s and 1980s was a costly one. After the last devaluation in 1986, a fixed exchange rate policy was introduced and the economy went through a period of extensive restructuring. Confidence in the krone had to be restored to prevent persistently high inflation. This required very high interest rates. The Norwegian economy entered into the deepest recession since the interwar period. Unemployment rose from around 2 per cent in 1987 to 6 per cent in the winter of 1992/1993. Many companies went bankrupt and households faced debt problems. There was a crisis in the banking sector. Inflation only decreased to 2-3 per cent in the early 1990s. The years between 1986 and the beginning of the 1990s provide a realistic picture of the cost of bringing down inflation from a high level. 8  See Storvik (1998). 9  See Gjedrem ”Challenges in monetary policy”, Aftenposten, 4 May 1999. BIS Review 111/2008  5  Inflation has been low and stable since the mid-1990s because the objective of monetary policy has been to provide the economy with a nominal anchor. Economic agents should be able to rely on the value of money remaining stable over time.

First, the central banks’ objective of financial stability has emerged in the course of the historical evolution of their legal mandates and responsibilities. Second, the application of macroprudential tools to safeguard financial stability requires, as a pre-condition, knowledge of the financial cycle. Third, our conference programme is organized so as to discuss this critical topic in a conceptual sequencing: starting from the global view, elaborating on the euro area, and then turning to the financial cycle in non-euro area 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Europe. I believe our speakers and discussants will provide both theoretical insights and first-hand policy experiences, from global and regional perspectives, for all of us to benefit from a frank exchange of ideas and relevant practices today. Thank you very much once again for joining us and participating in this conference, and I wish you a very pleasant and productive stay in Sofia. More information about the event you can find here. 1 See F Capie, C Goodhart and N Schnadt, “The development of central banking”, in F Capie, S Fischer, C  Goodhart and N Schnadt, (eds), The future of central banking: the tercentenary symposium of the Bank of England, Cambridge University Press, 1994, p 6. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
They have a lot of stories and messages to tell, waiting for us to look up close and decipher their meanings and symbolism. Therefore, I urge all of you to take your time to marvel at the wonders of banknotes on exhibit today. I hope this exhibition will open our eyes to view banknotes from a different perspective, to have a greater understanding why banknotes have always exuded a strong sense of pride, prestige and sovereignty of the issuing country. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Before I explore issues like inflation in any greater depth, I should give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee or others in the Federal Reserve System. The U.S. Economy If monetary policy represents a set of scales, on one side we have a strong U.S. economy with unemployment near a 50-year low, and on the other, a more challenging and uncertain landscape. GDP looks to grow around 2 percent this year, and unemployment has stayed at or near historically low levels, boosted by solid job growth. At the same time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has moved to cut rates three times. What’s going on? There are three trends I’ll explore today, which all demonstrate the commonalities and the interconnectedness of the global economy. The first is the low neutral rate of interest, or r-star, the second is slowing global growth, and the third is rising geopolitical tensions. All are critically important to the long-term prospects of the U.S. economy, and each tells an important story about the conditions we’re experiencing today. Low R-star Those of you who know me won’t be surprised that I’m starting with low r-star! The neutral rate of interest—the rate that prevails when monetary policy is neither restrictive nor accommodative— has been an area of study, and a personal passion, for the past two decades.
In many ways, the business models of banks and non-bank financial institutions – especially large securities firms – have converged, with banks playing a greater agency role in the credit process, and securities firms doing more of the financing. BIS Review 39/2008  3  It is important to understand that investment banks now perform many of the economic functions traditionally associated with commercial banks, and they are also vulnerable to a sudden loss of liquidity. Unlike commercial banks, which rely significantly on deposits for funding, investment banks operate according to a business model in which they fund large portions of their balance sheets on a secured, short-term basis in what is known as the repo market. Because the assurance of access to short-term secured funding on a daily basis is such a critical component of business functioning for these entities, they are vulnerable to the possibility of a sudden pullback in short-term lending, or a reduction in the willingness of investors to lend against certain classes of securities. As we have seen throughout the past nine months, these changes in the relative roles of traditional commercial banks and investment banks have changed the nature of financial stability. In the United States, the regulatory framework and most of the tools that were created to prevent and manage financial crises were developed in a bank-dominated era, and we have had to adapt those tools to deal with current market realities.

Financial crises are even costlier in emerging economies than in industrialized countries, as their ability to bear such costs is severely constrained by spillovers between the banking system and sovereigns and the related vicious circle of escalating risk premia. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The crisis has also revealed that effective policy remedies have a transnational perspective. In the European Union the idea of a Banking Union emerged as a solution to break the above-mentioned vicious circle, thus putting a stop to financial fragmentation and helping restore the normal capital flow from the core EU countries to the periphery. In addition, the Banking Union has the merit of removing the contradiction between the pan-European nature of banking activity and keeping banking supervisory and resolution tasks at the national level. In this context, Romania’s membership in the Banking Union comes as a natural choice, given that euro area banks hold three fourths of the total assets of the Romanian banking system and two thirds of its capital. As was the case with EU membership, the national interest may be better served in the banking sector by relinquishing some of the national policy prerogatives. In the context of such a high financial integration, preserving the banking supervisory powers at national level would only entail suboptimal results, due to the limited access to information on parent banks and the lack of a cross-border perspective.