samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Rekha Chifuwe Mhango: 2021 findings of the private sector foreign investment and investor perception survey Speech by Mrs Rekha Chifuwe Mhango, Deputy Governor (Administration) of the Bank of Zambia, at the virtual dissemination workshop of the 2021 findings of the private sector foreign investment and investor perception survey, Lusaka, 15 December 2021. * * * It is my great pleasure to welcome you all to this virtual dissemination workshop of the results of the private sector foreign investment and investor perception survey undertaken in 2021. The ongoing global health crisis has demonstrated the crucial contribution of technology and innovation to addressing challenges brought about by covid-19. In this regard, this workshop is being held virtually to allow participants follow deliberations from the safety of their own space. We are grateful to you all for finding time to join this virtual meeting. In light of the covid-19 pandemic, we considered alternative ways of using remote methods to undertake the survey and I am pleased to inform you that the 2021 survey was conducted virtually. The Bank of Zambia, Zambia Development Agency, Zambia Statistics Agency and other collaborating institutions are greatly indebted to the respondents who participated in the survey. We truly appreciate your dedication and support. Let me take this opportunity to thank the balance of payments technical committee comprising the Zambia Statistics Agency, Zambia Development Agency, Bank of Zambia, and other collaborating institutions for successfully conducting the 2021 survey.

Private sector external debt, which accounted for about 80 percent of foreign liabilities, increased by 5 percent to $ billion due to revaluation changes in non-us dollar denominated loans predominantly in the electricity, manufacturing, information and communication as well as real estate sectors. Esteemed invited guests, in terms of flows, overall net foreign liability outflows of $ million 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  were recorded in 2020 against net inflows of $ million in 2019. This was due to loan repayments to non-affiliates by the mining, manufacturing, electricity as well as wholesale and retail trade sectors, and the reduction in currency holdings by non-residents in domestic deposittaking corporations. However, FDI liability inflows amounted to $ million compared to $ million in 2019. Reduced re-invested earnings and debt repayments, largely by the mining and quarrying sector, accounted for the decline in FDI inflows. Canada continued to be the major source of private sector foreign liabilities. Ladies and gentlemen, the stock of private sector foreign liabilities declined further in the first half of 2021 to $ billion due to loan repayments mostly by the mining and quarrying sector as well as revaluation effects on equity. However, a net inflow of about $ million was recorded against net outflows of $ million a year ago. This was due to the upswing in FDI inflows on account of higher reinvested earnings by the mining, deposit-taking corporation, manufacturing, electricity, as well as information and communication sectors.
From a broader policymaking perspective, moreover, there is also the question about the role that financial stability concerns should play in the formulation of macroeconomic policy more generally. I am sure that the second seminar session will provide further insights in this regard, when the interrelationship between fiscal policy, monetary policy and financial stability will be considered. Policy transparency, good governance and market discipline The relationship between macroeconomic policy and financial stability also serves to highlight the importance of policy transparency and good governance, both at the national and corporate level. In fact, it is generally agreed that the likelihood of disturbances to the financial system can be greatly diminished if the authorities manifest their policy intentions clearly, and explain the rationale behind policy measures once decisions have been taken. This helps to reduce the chances of investors and creditors making uninformed decisions, only to reverse them later. This aspect has become especially relevant in the context of capital account liberalisation, particularly in those countries that operate variants of fixed exchange rate regimes. It is even more so in countries which are simultaneously engaged in efforts to place public finances on a stable footing and to gain credibility for the central bank’s monetary policy. Here, a sudden shift in investor confidence could have serious repercussions, not only for financial stability but also for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy.

At the same BIS Review 72/2000  4  time, there are similarities with regard to the strong penetration of information technology in the economy, although we are also later in this development. As in the USA, high asset prices and strong optimism have stimulated demand and increased the level of indebtedness in the Swedish economy. Although it is not yet possible to write off the risk of financial imbalances building up the USA imbalances that can have negative effects for the American economy - it now seems as if the American economy may be on its way to a soft landing. However, there still remain the global financial imbalances that have been built up over many years with very high saving in Japan and very low saving and high indebtedness in the USA. We have still not seen how these imbalances are to be resolved and the consequences this will have for the world economy. Although there are some indications that the Swedish economy is experiencing a similar development as the American, the structural differences cannot be disregarded, which probably create greater inertia in the Swedish economy than in the American. One such area is the labour market. Considerable barriers to competition remain in the Swedish economy as well. Another difference is that the cyclical upswing we are now experiencing is taking place at the same time as an increase in growth and resource use in the rest of the world.
Christine Lagarde: Laudatory speech for Dr Wolfgang Schäuble Laudatory speech by Ms Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, for Dr Wolfgang Schäuble, at the VdZ Publishers’ Night, Berlin, 4 November 2019. * * * The English philosopher John Stuart Mill once observed that “a great statesman is he who knows when to depart from traditions, as well as when to adhere to them.” It is with these words in mind that I would like to celebrate Wolfgang’s contribution to public life. You embody what I see as the model of “Germany in Europe”: the Germany that is an implacable defender of its values and a beacon of liberalism and democracy; but also the Germany that is ready to move when needed to uphold the European idea. This event is not about the ECB. It’s not about monetary policy or other economic policies. It’s about you, Wolfgang. So I will not talk about monetary policy or anything related to it. I was asked to speak this evening when I was still Managing Director of the IMF, and I was honoured to do so in recognition of our long shared history as colleagues and friends. But the occasion has taken on added meaning in the light of my new role working for Europe. There are few who have done so much for Europe, over so long a period, as you, Wolfgang.

On the other hand, there is no reason to despair over the task of reducing public sector debt to 60% of GDP. The target Iceland has set for itself in any case, partly by aiming for a fiscal surplus, which is stricter than the 3% deficit set forth in the Maastricht criteria. Although Iceland’s gross public sector debt will be close to 100% of GDP as of end-2011, net debt is only about 40% of GDP. A large share of gross debt is due to large temporary foreign exchange reserves. Once uncertainty about the removal of capital controls is behind us, the sovereign credit rating improves, and the refinancing risk related to foreign debt diminishes, the need for large foreign exchange reserves will diminish as well. Furthermore, as a member of a currency union, a small country needs smaller foreign currency reserves than it needs to run an independent currency, which it must be prepared to defend, and possibly provide domestic financial institutions with foreign currency liquidity during times of distress. Participation in ERM II, which entails reciprocal responsibility for exchange rate stability, would reduce somewhat the need for large foreign exchange reserves relative to a unilateral fixed rate regime.
We know that small and medium-sized businesses develop predominantly owing to their profits, their equity, which is not bad, and that nowadays a large number of enterprises have had an opportunity to apply to banks and receive these loans during this period. Indeed, companies applied for loans because they were forced to do that and it was primarily associated with their need to make up for decreased revenues in the second quarter. The preferential lending programmes launched by the Government were essential in this regard, including both the 0% wage loan and 2% programmes. Banks have granted over 0.5 trillion rubles since the beginning of the year within these programmes. I would like to remind you that, in order to support these programmes, to maintain lending, the Bank of Russia also launched its preferential refinancing instrument for banks, in addition to the one that existed earlier, with the limit of 500 billion rubles exactly to support the portfolio of projects. We are well aware that, although the lending programmes with state guarantees, sureties, as well as corporate sureties have expanded, preferential programmes are not accessible to all enterprises, but only to a small portion of them. The objective of our programme was to incentivise banks to maintain their 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  lending amounts. In other words, those banks that did not reduce their SME lending considerably, including both under preferential and standard programmes, received funds from the Central Bank at a rather attractive interest rate, recently equalling 2.25%.

At the same time, labour shortages have persisted in many sectors and overt unemployment has been stable and low. The business sector must restructure rapidly when real wages increase sharply. Many activities will no longer be profitable and will be shut down. This could lead to higher unemployment. However, lower employment will not necessarily be reflected in unemployment figures. We may instead see a flow of discouraged workers into, for example, disability pensions, early retirement schemes or different types of adjustment packages. The extent to which these schemes are used will depend on financial incentives and entitlement thresholds. 8  BIS Review 20/2002  In Norway, the employment rate is among the highest in the OECD area. This reflects both high labour force participation and low unemployment. The picture becomes more mixed when average working hours are taken into account. The average is lower in Norway than in other countries. The sickness absence rate is high. Part-time employment is widespread. The average number of person-hours worked in the working-age population is relatively low, despite high labour force participation and low unemployment. Among OECD countries, the only countries with lower figures than Norway are those with very high unemployment. In Norway, average working hours have fallen by more than 20 per cent in the last thirty years. This can be partly explained by the way working life and child care are organised, but similar trends are also seen in many other countries, especially in Scandinavia.
A good example of this was Law 2/2011 on Sustainable Economy, which marked a milestone on the road towards advanced regulation of conduct. For example, this legislation includes for the first time so-called “responsible lending” and modernises claims services. Several European Directives addressing this field have also been approved. Banco de España Circular 5/2012, which replaced Circular 8/1990, includes all these features. I honestly believe that the current rules accurately regulate transparency obligations regarding bank products and services both in the pre-contractual stage and over the life of the operation. Evidently, in parallel with these regulatory developments, there have been most significant changes in society, public opinion and jurisprudence, especially in the past decade. Our supervisory framework has also evolved. Now, in addition to focusing on formal compliance with conduct obligations, it also envisages the management and mitigation of these risks by banks and their incorporation into the business model. I shall briefly refer to these aspects today. But I will also broach the need to enhance customers’ financial knowledge. In my view, this is a key element of which little mention is usually made. The cost of litigiousness Clearly, the changes in customer safeguard regulations and in jurisprudence mean that what was appropriate in the past has ceased to be so today. Undoubtedly, banks have acted questionably; but to be completely fair, we should acknowledge that the legal playing field on which banks operate has changed significantly.

As you will have so many other matters to discuss, apart from the economy and the euro, you must forgive me for dedicating so much time to my own specific subjects. To conclude, I am sure these present Tertulias will, as in all the previous meetings, be successful, that the participants will enjoy themselves, and that our British friends will have very good memories of this visit to Madrid. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
It will be very important for the banking in the region to work as hard as possible on preserving the confidence in the institutions, in the banks. To prevent as much as possible the speculations which may cause panic with the depositors. The region should respond to the world financial crisis and recession movements with increased mutual cooperation. Both economic and political. The reduced export demand in the developed economies could be partially offset with the increased trade and mutual increase in the private crediting in trading or financial terms. Tomorrow's conference has a chance to give its contribution to that. Is the world financial crisis going to create larger innovations in the international financial system and order and are there any developments, redistributions in the international financial architecture and power in sight? I personally think that it is quite possible. Almost inevitable. From the one hand, it is becoming very clear that globalized markets and the total globalized economy require global and efficient international institutions where efficient and timely coordinated responses to the economic and financial risks and crises will be agreed. Just for example, Switzerland was obliged to support UBS and Credit Suisse. However, the problem is that they exceed its capacity, as in that case, and in many new such cases, with the financial giants in many other countries. Bush and Sarcozy have met, and the issue was nothing less than an entirely new world financial system, immediately encompassing China, India and Brazil.

I would only like to mention that the National Bank has commenced the activities for implementing BASEL II in the Macedonian banking system. Does and will this crisis have an impact on our economies? It already has and it will have an additional impact depending on its duration. The first blow is for the real sector. In all of our countries, depending on the structure of the economy, the export sector will be most severely hit. BIS Review 18/2009  5  Consensus Forecasts of October 2008, envisages that the growth of the US economy will equal 1.4% and in 2009 it will be 0%, with a projected fall of the personal consumption and faster decline in the investment consumption. The growth of the EU economy for 2008 has been adjusted downward (1.4%) and for 2009 it is 0.6%. For an illustration, 60% of the Macedonian export is in the EU countries. The trading conditions have already deteriorated and we project further deepening of the trade and the current account deficits, whereas the increased minus between the exports and the imports will act toward reducing our growth rate. We expect a negative impact also in the capital and financial accounts, but at this moment it is difficult to quantify it. Banking will not be hit directly. There is no exposure in risk-bearing financial instruments. Deposits are dispersed according to the regulations.
But the second and potentially more powerful way in which technology is helping to drive down the cost of financial intermediation is through partnerships between financial institutions and FinTech firms. Soc-Gén is working with TagPay to provide mobile banking in Africa through a cloud-based platform that is compatible with any mobile phone. AXA is working with MicroEnsure to offer simple and affordable insurance products to customers across Asia and Africa. By helping to reduce customer acquisition costs, these collaborations have helped to serve a larger social purpose – enhancing financial inclusion and expanding opportunity. But there is a lot more we need to do. There are about 1.7 billion adults globally who are unbanked. In the ten ASEAN countries of Southeast Asia, half the adult population is unbanked. This is a shame. The ASEAN countries have a burgeoning middle class and increasingly modern infrastructure, yet so many do not have access to a bank account, secure and affordable payments, or insurance protection. Banks and insurers face high costs in reaching out to customers in remote areas. We need to take collaboration between financial institutions and FinTech firms to a much broader level – through platforms for innovation and inclusion. This is why the MAS, the ASEAN Bankers Association, and the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation have teamed up to establish the ASEAN Financial Innovation Network, or AFIN in short. AFIN aims to bring banks and FinTech firms from across the world to develop innovative solutions to penetrate hard-to-reach markets in a cost efficient way.

Monzo has opened 1.6 million accounts, adding 30,000 each week. Monzo’s customers can connect their accounts to 600 different apps and services, and create rules to integrate banking into their daily lives. For example, users can create a rule that automatically logs calories to the health app on their mobile phone whenever they purchase coffee. But banks can also play the same game, and more of them are doing it. DBS Bank from Singapore launched a “digi-bank” in India two years ago and has already garnered 2.5 million customers. Digibank is using artificial intelligence to learn customers’ spending habits and will prompt them if they are overspending, or provide relevant marketing offers such as coffee vouchers for a caffeine-lover. Maybe we should combine the DBS Bank app and the Monzo app to achieve a more balanced intake of coffee! United Overseas Bank from Singapore has just launched in Thailand a digital-only bank TMRW (pronounced “tomorrow”) aimed at millennials. It comes complete with an “engagement lab” using behavioural insights to study customer’s banking habits and needs. TMRW’s mobile app features a game designed to encourage their customers to save more. In Hong Kong, the regulator has given out licenses to 8 virtual banks to acquire and deliver banking services through the Internet. 6 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  The take-up numbers are interesting; they indicate the competition emerging in the space of digital banking. Out of the 8 virtual banks, 5 are non-banks but 3 are backed by banks.
Some central banks, including the Riksbank, have cut their policy rates to below zero, which had previously been generally perceived as the lower bound. In the wake of this, a fairly intense international debate has started on the advantages and disadvantages of negative interest rates, in which certain debaters are positive and others almost paint doomsday scenarios. This debate has been somewhat overblown. It seems reasonable to assume that negative interest rates are less problematic to implement and function better in certain countries than in others, depending, for example, on the degree of cash usage. The theory here is that, at a certain interest rate level, probably negative, deposit customers will start to withdraw their money. At this interest rate level, it could thus be said that interest rate stimulation will cease. If the banks are unwilling to cut their deposit rates below zero, their  2  2  The Bank of Canada estimates that the real neutral interest rate fell from about 3 per cent in 2005 to about 1.5 per cent in 2015. Model simulations suggest that this has increased the probability that the interest rate will hit its lower bound from 5 per cent to 15 per cent (see Kryvtsov and Mendes, 2015). BIS central bankers’ speeches  profitability will become impaired. The banks’ possibilities to compensate for this, for example via increased lending margins, are thus another important factor. There is no uniform answer as to where the policy rate’s lower bound lies, as it varies from country to country.

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