samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This is especially true for banks, which are operating in an intensely competitive and dynamic environment. They need to muster all their talents and energies on the financial business, instead of dissipating them over many different businesses. For these reasons, banks should not commingle financial and non-financial activities. However, this does not mean that banks must refrain from engaging in venture capital or merchant banking business, which involves taking an equity interest in a diversified portfolio of non-financial companies for some period. It is not uncommon for the merchant banking business of well-run, international banks to take stakes in non-financial companies for three to five years. These activities are natural extensions of the lending business of banks. They are, however, quite different from taking long-term strategic stakes in non-financial companies which tie a bank’s reputation to these companies. In addition to the separation of banking and non-banking activities, regulators in several developed markets have also advocated dispersed ownership of banks. Often this has been achieved by legislation or via the bank’s own memorandum and articles of association, which sets limits on shareholdings to prevent any single shareholder or group of shareholders from dominating the bank. The result has been a “clean” corporate structure for their banks, i.e. there are no cross-shareholdings between banks and non-banks, and there is clear separation of ownership from management. Practice in other countries The US is an example of a financial system which has prohibited commingling between banking and commerce, and required dispersion of bank ownership.

Conclusions for monetary policy All in all, growth prospects for the short term are somewhat more unfavourable than when we published our most recent inflation forecast. However, the major economic policy realignment in a number of important countries looks like paving the way for a recovery after a time. But this does presuppose that households and firms really do start to consume and invest. Major risks here are saving imbalances and over-investment. In Sweden, too, there has been an expansionary realignment of economic policy that is helping to strengthen household income. Provided there is an international recovery, the weak krona should have a stimulatory effect on exports. As regards inflation, the rate since April this year has been above the Riksbank’s target. The increase is mainly due to transitory factors and I envisage that it will, as before, dwindle during the spring. This presupposes, however, that the price rise does not spread to other items or lead to wage increases. Another argument for a future easing of inflationary pressure is the existence of unutilised resources as a result of the slowdown. However, in my opinion, the Riksbank must watch developments closely to ensure that the recent rise in the inflation rate actually falls and does not stick. Most indicators appear to imply that inflation will be close to the target level of 2 per cent, or at least within a small margin on one side or the other.
There can be a strong temptation in this case to give in to fiscal dominance. This can take different forms, including two that are frequently cited, and seductive precisely because they are illusory: the cancellation of the public debt held by the central bank, or the similar idea of converting it into perpetual debt. The cancellation of this debt would be tantamount to the monetary financing of public deficits, the prohibition of which is one of the founding pillars of the agreement creating the euro. More importantly, we need to do away with this myth of “magic money”. There is no such thing as a free lunch. If the central bank cancelled the debt it holds, it would book an equivalent loss on its balance sheet and collective wealth would be reduced by the same amount. Moreover, the bank deposits linked to this monetary creation will have to be remunerated by the central bank when interest rates return to positive territory, and will therefore cost as much as a short term debt. And if, as some people are suggesting, the central bank committed to never raising interest rates, that would trigger a potentially uncontrollable inflationary spiral. As for perpetual debt, with no prospect of repayment, investors would demand high risk premiums and therefore interest rates, which would be much more expensive than on the current debt.

Our strength can be seen from the current account surplus, a strong reserves position, low level of external indebtedness and strong capital buffers in the banking system. We expect these strong conditions to persist. As many of you here can testify, our financial system is resilient and robust. On numerous occasions over the past decade, we have been able to manage market volatility in our stride. To a large extent, this was due to the continuous measures taken over the years to develop our financial markets. Our market now is balanced, deep and liquid to provide the structural support for orderly market conditions. Conclusion Let me conclude with the wisdom of the great philosopher Socrates. He viewed that any state should be led by wise, noble and exemplary ‘guardians'. These guardians will “...unite themselves in philosophy and spirit and swiftness and strength...and they ought to be wise and efficient." As bankers and guardians, let us aspire to exemplify these traits; to pursue professionalism, agility and wisdom. Thank you and congratulations again to all the graduates. A bright and exciting future awaits you. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
The outlook for the Spanish economy points to declines in GDP over the rest of the year that should lead to a significant fall in 2009, albeit slightly lower than is forecast for other European countries. It is highly likely that the worst of the contraction has already passed, and that the intensity of the restrictive impulses will begin to diminish in the second half of the year as the broad range of measures implemented progressively deploy their effects. As a result, the fall in activity in 2010 is expected to be less pronounced. The course of employment in this scenario, in any event, is a cause for concern; despite the somewhat more positive signals given by some recent indicators, linked in part to seasonal factors, job destruction may run for some time and the unemployment rate may continue further on its rising trend. The imbalances built up during the long expansionary phase, in the form of the inflation differential and the resort to external financing, are being swiftly reabsorbed, providing an unquestionable source of relief in the global outlook described. Yet this rapid correction is occurring on the back of an excessive brake on activity, entailing major costs in terms of job destruction, higher unemployment and the deterioration of the productive fabric.

Not in vain, one of the lessons to be drawn from past experience is that economic redeployment behind national borders and protectionism are sure-fire recipes for exacerbating and prolonging global crises such as the present one. Among the measures adopted, central banks in the advanced economies reacted decisively by providing abundant liquidity to financial systems and substantially cutting their key interest rates. These standard monetary policy measures were later complemented by other, nonconventional measures. The European Central Bank began very early to increase liquidity assistance and, from October, banks’ applications for liquidity began to be met in full, while the range of financial assets accepted as collateral for these operations was widened. The main refinancing rate has been cut by 325 basis points to an all-time low of 1% following the May meeting. And, as regards extraordinary measures, the term over which liquidity is injected has been extended to 12 months, and funds are provided in currencies other than the euro, thanks to cooperation agreements with other central banks; the European Investment Bank has been granted the status of eligible counterparty, in order to smooth the course of the loans this institution makes to European SMEs; and the decision has been taken to purchase covered bonds and other similar types of asset-backed bonds. At the same time, an expansionary monetary impulse of unprecedented proportions was set in train in Europe, commensurate with the seriousness of the contractionary trends experienced in the real and financial domain.
The Growing Challenges for Monetary Policy in the current International Monetary and Financial System Speech given by Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England  Jackson Hole Symposium 2019 23 August 2019  I am grateful to Clare Macallan, Daisy McGregor and James Benford for their assistance in preparing these remarks, and to Nishat Anjum, Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Alex Haberis, James O’Connor and Carlos van Hombeeck for background research and analysis. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  Introduction Before turning to the focus of my remarks, I would like to begin with a few comments on the UK outlook. A snapshot suggests the UK economy is currently close to equilibrium, operating just below potential with inflation just above its target. Both headline and core inflation are around 2%, and domestic price pressures have been picking up notably. In particular, the labour market is tight. Growth in wages and unit wage costs have strengthened considerably as slack has been absorbed, with both now running at their highest rates in over a decade. The strength of the labour market is supporting consumer spending, which is rising broadly in line with real incomes. But pictures can deceive; two large, volatile forces could push the UK economy far from balance. Until the start of this year, the UK economy had been growing around its trend rate. Since then, the intensification of Brexit uncertainties and weaker global activity have weighed heavily on UK activity. Global momentum remains soft, despite the broad-based easing in monetary policy expectations.

Chart 9: Emerging market economies could be running to stand still in the future Average 2009-18 Probability density Average 1996-06 Impact of push factors 0.12 Impact of push factors with 2030 amplification due to shifting composition (col 3, chart 10) 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 -8 -6 -4 -2 Capital flows as a % of GDP  0  2  4  6  8  10  12  14  16  18  Sources: IMF, EPFR, IIF and Bank staff calculations. Notes: This chart shows conditional distributions of capital flows to EMEs post-the 2008 crisis (green), and conditioning on a one standard deviation negative “push shock” (red), as proxied by our global financial conditions index. The diamonds highlight the fifth percentile, which is our preferred measure of Capital Flows-at-Risk The dotted grey distribution results from increasing the sensitivity of the distribution to push shocks in line with the scalar in the third column of chart 10, assuming they apply through the distribution (rather than only to 5th percentile). Estimating the impact of these vulnerabilities on the full distribution is a rich area for future work. The teal distribution conditions on average push and pull factors 1996-06.
More generally, if house prices and household indebtedness are regarded as a problem, then this problem needs to be analysed and specified in greater detail to assess which means can be used to deal with it. Is the problem some form of market failure? Does it involve an externality? Is it due to a lack of information to borrowers, and is it thus a consumer protection issue? It is only when we have specified the problem that we can determine suitable measures to deal with it. However, as far as I can see, there is hardly any indication that current house prices and household indebtedness are a problem. In Sweden, mortgages do not present any threat to financial stability. This is because – unlike in the United States – mortgages are personal (what are known as full recourse loans). They do not lead to any loan losses of significance for the mortgage institutions. Mortgages did not lead to any loan losses worth mentioning even in the 1990s crisis – the banks’ loan losses were primarily caused by loans for commercial property. Household debt thus does not present any threat to financial stability in Sweden. Can house prices and household debt involve any other problems? I cannot see any indications that a house price bubble is building up or that house prices will become unsustainable in the longer run. The house price indicator published by The Economist usually points to Swedish house prices in relation to rent levels being over-valued by up to 40 per cent.

Even so, targeted fiscal and monetary stimulus measures should support growth at close to 7% this year. •  Against this backdrop, overall growth in Emerging Asia will remain firm, at 6% this year. Banks in Emerging Asia will therefore not do badly. There are, however, downside risks that they need to watch. First, the divergence in monetary policy settings among the G3 economies could pose risks to financial stability that could also potentially hurt growth. The anticipated normalisation of interest rates in the US against continuing quantitative easing in the Eurozone and Japan will be reflected in sharp movements in exchange rates and bond yields. This is not a prediction, it is already happening. The scenario of a “double whammy” posed by a rise in US interest rates and a strong US Dollar could expose vulnerabilities among some Asian borrowers. •  Rising interest rates will increase the debt servicing burden of Asian households and corporates, especially those who have taken on high levels of debt at low rates. •  Asian corporates with large unhedged dollar borrowings could face increasing stress as a strengthening dollar undermines their ability to repay loans. Banks in Emerging Asia could face higher non-performing loans. They could also face reduced US Dollar funding if there are large capital outflows from Asia. But their liquidity and capital positions are generally sound and they should be able to weather this. What matters is the medium to long term, and here the outlook for Asia remains sanguine.
GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year has been revised upwards, consumer confidence has rebounded somewhat and the main forward looking surveys of activity in the manufacturing and services sector have been looking substantially more positive since the turn of the year. Consistent with this tentative recovery in optimism, the Consensus survey of professional economists' forecasts for near-term growth in the US has been revised upwards for the first time in quite a period. So far, the UK has escaped the worst of the squalls raging across the Atlantic. Though GDP growth slowed over the course of last year, output in 2001 was still 2.4% higher than a year earlier, close to trend growth. Underlying this relatively benign aggregate picture, there are of course some quite marked differences: on the expenditure side, between growth in consumption, which has surged ahead, and growth in investment, which has been strikingly depressed; and, on the output side, between the fortunes of firms in manufacturing, which have borne the brunt of the global slowdown, and those of firms in the more sheltered services sector. These differences are sometimes referred to as 'imbalances', and it is certainly true that we can neither expect (nor wish) for them to persist over the long run. The shake-out in manufacturing has been particularly severe, as you know here only too well. Manufacturing output in Northern Ireland fell by some 4.6% in the year to last autumn, compared with a fall of 3.5% in the UK as a whole.

And that expectation is factored into their own behaviour, whether it is negotiating wages, setting prices, or deciding how much to borrow and consume. All of that goes a long way towards ensuring that inflation is well anchored to the target. Of course, from month to month, inflation will still vary somewhat around 2½%. In recent months, RPIX has been a little below target, and there has even been some interest in whether it might reach 1.5%, the point at which the Governor would have to write a formal letter to the Chancellor explaining what was going on. The pick up of inflation to 2.6% in January has silenced this discussion, at least for the time being. We pore over the reasons for such developments in enormous detail at the Bank. But in the bigger scheme of things these month-to-month movements are quite small, and are I hope likely to play very little - if any - role in the key decisions of your businesses, or those you represent. People often ask if our relative success at targeting inflation has come at a cost in terms of lost output or employment. It is increasingly accepted, I think, that there is no such trade-off in the long run. And, looking at recent data, it is hard to see a trade-off even in the short run. Unemployment remains close to its lowest level for a quarter of a century - a trend seen in Northern Ireland just as much as in the UK as a whole.
It is for this reason, for example, that the Bank of Zambia has supported the work of journalists in understanding economic issues and supported their associations in improving the standard of journalism in Zambia. Further, the Bank of Zambia publishes its own inhouse magazine “THE ZAMBANKER” as well as more technical economic articles mainly written by staff on topical issues in the Zambian economy in “THE BoZ READER”. Although most of the articles have been written by staff in the Bank, we have always encouraged the public to contribute articles on issues relating to the Zambian economy. In this regard, I wish to once more extend an invitation to you all to contribute articles for publication in the ZAMBANKER or indeed the BoZ READER. BIS Review 74/2008  1  Distinguished Guests, In order to effectively address the issue of how to secure a sustainable economic future, the first point of call must surely be to address the issue of illiteracy in Zambia. A good number of our citizens especially those living in the rural areas are not able to read both in English or local languages. This is a major hindrance to sustainable economic development, as it makes it very difficult to transfer new technologies and skills to the rural populace – skills that are critical in improving health and education outcomes and harnessing the tremendous potential that this country possesses. The scenario in the urban areas, though slightly better than the rural areas, still leaves much to be desired.

I believe this has broadened my own horizons and enabled me to interact with many different people from different cultures all over the world – creating and cementing many valuable friendships. The second reason is that the theme of this year’s book fair – READING TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC FUTURE – touches squarely on my own professional responsibilities as Governor of the Bank of Zambia. Our main pre-occupation at the Bank of Zambia is to help Government attain a sustainable economic future by working to keep increases in the average prices of goods and services low, the price of money (i.e. interest rates) low, and maintaining a stable exchange rate and financial system. This is the best way in which we can assist the Government as it works to advance the welfare of the Zambian people. Needless to say, one of the key pre-requisites for the Government in achieving this goal is the need to develop an educated and enlightened citizenry, which can effectively contribute to the development process. From the Bank of Zambia’s own perspective, the experience of central banks around the world is that effective communication with the public is a very important part of the success of central banks in achieving their objectives of price and financial system stability. The written word, although not the oldest form of communication, is perhaps the most powerful and enduring form for communicating and exchanging ideas. It is therefore indispensable in the work that we do.
B S B aims to link multiple platforms domestically and internationally, connecting buyers, suppliers, marketplaces, and service providers across economies If successful, the BSB experiment will demonstrate that the key to supply chain resilience is not to isolate and retreat behind borders, but to strengthen connectivity across borders even more. Resilient Industry The second dimension is a resilient industry – one that can continue to function in the face of disruptions and movement restrictions. Digitalisation is one of the ways in which an industry can build resilience. We have seen, amid the COVID-19 lockdowns, how firms which have gone digital earlier have managed to ensure business continuity, with the transition to working remotely and serving customers online. To ensure resilience, digitalisation needs to be end-to-end. If every part of a process is digitalised except one step which requires an in-person interaction, or a wet ink signature, or a payment in physical cash, then the “digital chain” is broken and resilience compromised. In financial services, this is what we have been aiming for: to be digital to the core. 3/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  Digital trade finance solutions are trying to achieve seamlessness, to help facilitate trade flows. At the Singapore FinTech Festival last year, a trade finance application portal was launched as a value-added service on Singapore’s Networked Trade Platform, which allowed traders and businesses to seamlessly apply for financing from nine banks.

Ravi Menon: Down but not out: resilience in a post-COVID world Keynote speech by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Singapore Maritime Lecture, Singapore, 2 September 2020. * * * Good afternoon to everyone tuning in from Asia, and good morning to the rest watching from across the globe. Let me thank the Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) for the opportunity to deliver this Singapore Maritime Lecture virtually. The global economy is facing its worst crisis since the Second World War. The IMF has forecast that the global economy will shrink by 4.9% this year. According to the W TO, global merchandise trade volumes contracted by an estimated 14% in the first half of 2020. And the recovery will not be spectacular – even in its more optimistic scenario, the W TO forecasts merchandise trade this year to be 13% below 2019 levels. With over 80% of international merchandise trade seaborne, the maritime industry has not been spared. Down But Not Out One of the great lessons of the COVID-19 crisis is the importance of resilience. In one of the most popular movie quotes of all time, the boxer Rocky Balboa says “It ain’t about how hard you hit, it is about how hard you can get hit, and keep moving forward.” Resilience is not just about being strong, it is not even about staying on your feet all the time.