samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Policy recommendations that are appropriate for some economies are not necessarily suitable for other economies. One salient theme, however, is that fiscal policy space is more limited across the spectrum than it was in the run up to the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Moving from broad policy recommendations to concrete messages on policy implementation is required to draw the policy-makers’ attention and establish a constructive dialogue. The Consolidated Multilateral Surveillance Report is a positive step in that direction. II. The medium-term challenges and the fund’s action plan  Under the current circumstances, the Fund should focus on its short-term policy challenges. Indeed, one of the main issues that the Fund is tackling right now, namely the Triennial Surveillance Review, will be shaped directly by the lessons that the practice and traction of surveillance reveal in the current uncertain environment. Such surveillance practices will be the basis on which to revamp the surveillance framework, for instance, through an integrated surveillance decision that encompasses both its bilateral and multilateral aspects. The Fund’s resource adequacy is, in our view, directly linked to the functioning of Regional Financial Arrangements (RFA) and the existence of bilateral central bank swap lines. It is welcome that major central banks are currently cooperating in this area. A reasonable  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  question is whether current Fund resources, plus those available through RFAs and bilateral swap lines, are sufficient to deal with a significant major financial dislocation.

Assessing these resource needs is critical to evaluate whether, for instance, the New Arrangements to Borrow will have to remain active, even if the quota increase is fully implemented by next year. Moreover, the discussion of resources would have to be linked to a broader rethinking of the need for alternative lending instruments to bolster the global safety net. This topic should be given higher priority at the current juncture and not, as in our previous IMFC meeting, simply as part of a broader agenda for IMS reform. The activation and deactivation, and the criteria for conditionality, for the Flexible Credit Line or similar instruments could be reviewed, towards making them closer substitutes to bilateral swap lines that have been implemented by major central banks. This would help reduce the stigma associated with the Fund’s toolkit, and would contribute to ensure adequate liquidity provision in times of market stress. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
For example, one would want to be certain that in no circumstance would management see a benefit from putting the firm into resolution in order to convert its debt holdings into equity. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  jurisdiction, even in periods of stressful financial market conditions, without taxpayer funds, in a way that minimizes knock-on effect to financial markets and other financial institutions. As I have indicated in earlier speeches, I endorse the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) single point of entry (SPE) resolution framework for the United States. For the SPE approach to be successful, firms subject to this resolution regime will need to have a sufficient amount of long-term debt at the parent company that the FDIC can convert into equity to guarantee that the new bridge company is adequately capitalized. Counterparties at the subsidiary level need to be assured that they have no reason to pull back from the new bridge company. In the international arena this type of requirement is referred to as GLAC, or “gone concern loss absorption capacity.” The Financial Stability Board is working on a proposal for an international GLAC standard, with a target date for consideration this November. Finalizing this standard is an important to-do item. As I discussed earlier, both the amount and the composition of additional resources are important.

Widespread consultation would be needed, and due account taken of confidentiality rules, before any reporting framework can be implemented.”  7  See Communique Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Washington, DC, April 18–19, 2013 “We also call for a feasibility study on how information from trade repositories can be aggregated and shared among authorities, so as to enable comprehensive monitoring of risks to financial stability.”  8  See CPSS / IOSCO. Report on OTC Derivatives Data Repository and Aggregation Requirements. January 2012. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  The goal of financial stability will remain elusive so long as we have financial firms that are judged as “too big to fail.” Some might argue that this is reason enough to break up these firms. I do not believe that this is the best course of action. As I have outlined here today, I prefer a multi-faceted approach that strives to: (1) minimize the risk that a large complex financial firm faces default, (2) have in place a credible resolution regime if a default becomes imminent, (3) improve the resiliency of our financial system so that any shocks resulting from a resolution are not amplified across the system, and (4) build out a global data model for effectively monitoring global financial markets.
In the two years since, the severe global health and economic crisis faced by the world has brought these trends into even sharper focus. For example, the pandemic has highlighted and deepened long-standing vulnerabilities in Malaysia and many places around the world. These include the fragile state of social protection systems, under-investments in health and infrastructure, and the need to improve our education system. As a result, vulnerable groups bore much of the economic, social and health cost of the pandemic and they continue to be at risk. This will affect economic and social resilience and thus not only our prospects to recover and bounce back from the pandemic, but also to deal with other existential challenges further ahead, like those in the environment and climate. On the bright side, the pandemic has demonstrated the power and potential of finance to address the pressing problems of our time. The financial system has been resilient, with the ability to provide critical support to households and businesses during the difficult times. Digital financial services like electronic payments have made it easy for people and businesses to continue making transactions in a low touch setting, with even greater ease. The financial sector has also stepped up to provide various forms of relief to customers over the last two years, such as by giving borrowers breathing space and helping them get back on their feet while ensuring that depositors’ interests are not jeopardised.

The second realignment that is taking place is based on the post-crisis realisation that financial stability cannot be secured solely through a combination of macroeconomic policies aimed at price stability and microprudential supervision aimed at the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions. 16. Price stability is not sufficient to achieve financial stability. Sharp increases in asset prices, even in a climate of relatively low consumer price inflation, have typically led to credit booms and risky behaviour that eventually undermined financial stability. Likewise, prudential rules to ensure the safety of individual banks have not been sufficient to keep the banking system as a whole safe. Inter-linkages and common exposures across institutions can multiply aggregate risks and destabilise the system. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  17. Hence the resurgence of interest in what is called the macroprudential dimension – policies and tools aimed at containing risks in the financial system as a whole. However, macroprudential policies are still at an experimental stage. Different countries have adopted different measures in the name of sustaining systemic stability, ranging from limits on aggregate credit and caps on debt-to-income ratios to taxes on asset market transactions and controls on capital inflows. 18. Singapore has been experimenting, since 1996, with its own toolkit of macroprudential measures to tame excesses in the housing market. While we do not as yet have a completely coherent policy framework, the main outlines of Singapore’s approach are becoming clearer.
We certainly have not closed our minds to the possibility that these developments might allow us to sustain for a time stronger growth consistently with meeting our inflation target. But we can’t afford to gamble on that outcome either. The truth is that the jury is still out. What we have to do is to monitor intensively all of the data as it becomes available to us, and draw what inferences we can as to how those data affect the balance of risks around the inflation target looking ahead. What is encouraging, Mr Chairman, is that for all these uncertainties and complications the broad prospect for the UK economy as a whole over the next couple of years is for continuing relatively strong growth - at or above trend - with continuing relatively high employment, and continuing relatively low inflation. The monetary policy debate in the UK is a narrow one, it is about just how strong the growth, just how high the employment and just how low the rate of inflation. Against that background, let me finally say a few words about UK membership of the euro. Let me make clear, from the outset, that monetary union is fundamentally a political rather than an economic issue. It necessarily involves the deliberate pooling of national sovereignty over important aspects of public policy, in the interest not just of collective economic advantage, but of a perceived wider political harmony within Europe.

Anita Angelovska-Bezoska: Workshop on fintech - opening remarks Opening remarks by Ms Anita Angelovska-Bezoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the NBRM Workshop on Fintech, Skopje, 28 May 2018. * * * Dear Mr. Jay Tikam, Dear colleagues, It is my great pleasure to open the NBRM workshop on a topic that has been attracting a rising interest by regulators, supervisors and central bankers, i.e. a workshop on fIntech organizations that, by combining new business models and innovative technology, gradually change the shape of the financial services segment. The main idea of this workshop is to become better acquainted with this rather new but very important topic. It has been organized with the support of the European Fund for Southeast Europe, for which we are thankful. Although in continental Europe, fintech companies account for just a small share of the markets for banking, payment services and asset management, still they are on the rise as they are rapidly entering the markets and competing with banks. According to Ernst&Young’s Fintech Adoption Index, one-third of the consumers utilize at least two or more fintech services and they are increasingly aware of FinTech as part of their day-to-day activities.
It provides liquidity support to UK banks on terms which depend on their lending to the UK economy, thereby acting as a direct incentive to stimulate new lending. The FLS bears some resemblance to the second phase of cold storage. The SLS and FLS may be less famous than JLS, the London R&B boy-band. But they are an important recognition of the Bank’s role in supporting credit intermediation. That role began in the early part of the 20th century with schemes like cold storage. The Bank’s role had expanded beyond its own doorstep, on which the banks stood, to the doorsteps of households and companies up and down the country seeking credit. Supporting financial infrastructure Yet one thing at least had stayed the same: in 1914, the Bank had only acted when jolted into doing so by war. Its role was still as crisis-container rather than preventer. During the 1920s and 1930s, the Bank of England became Montagu Norman’s Bank. And Norman set about changing that. Norman was not Cunliffe’s greatest fan and the feeling was clearly mutual. “There goes that queer-looking fish with the ginger beard again”, Cunliffe is said to have observed about Norman. “Do you know who he is? I keep seeing him creep about this place like a lost soul with nothing better to do.”7 Nor would Norman necessarily have ingratiated himself to today’s army of Bank economists.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Rising oil prices – a challenge for monetary policy? Speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, Déjeuners de la Finance, Geneva, 2 November 2005. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  Despite oil prices being at a historically high level, inflation has increased only slightly in recent quarters and growth appears to be robust. Are we to assume, therefore, that oil no longer plays an important role in today’s economic environment? What challenges does the current situation pose for monetary policy? For the first time, the steady rise in energy prices is not the result of a political boycott by oil-producing countries, but of an increase in energy demand, coming in particular from the newly industrialised countries in Asia. In other words, the rise in crude oil prices this time can be attributed to the strong growth in global economic activity. This does not mean, however, that the role of monetary policy has changed. Although core inflation currently appears to be under control in most countries, a persistent and continuous rise in energy costs could have an effect on all prices and wages in the long run, thereby jeopardising monetary stability. Notwithstanding the low level of inflation (excluding energy prices), it is vital that the monetary authorities maintain a forward-looking stance so as not to put their credibility on the line and to ensure long-term price stability. 1/1
Our current account deficit is now running at a rate of above 6 percent of GDP, a level without precedent for a major economy. It matters because of the composition of the imbalance. Our trade deficit is now roughly the size of the current account deficit, and very large relative to our export base. And our net investment income balances are now likely to move into deficit. It matters because of the trajectory of the U.S. imbalance. On reasonable assumptions about its likely near term path, this deficit will produce a very large net deterioration in our net external liabilities relative to national income, with progressively larger net transfers of income to the rest of the world. This pattern should concern us because it is not simply the result of the savings and investment decisions of the private sector. The fact that we are using a substantial part of the savings we are borrowing from the rest of the world to finance an unsustainable level of public borrowing leaves us more vulnerable than if those savings were being used for productive private investment. Large structural fiscal deficits limit the size of the sustainable external imbalance for any country, even the United States, and they necessarily increase concern about the terms on which we are likely to finance the present imbalance. 1/3  It should concern us because of how the imbalance has been financed.

Sunil Mendis: A brief look at financial information technology Keynote address by Mr Sunil Mendis, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, for the Financial Information Systems Seminar, Colombo, 8 September 2004. *  *  *  His Excellency Akio Suda, the Ambassador for Japan in Sri Lanka, Mr Yoshihisa Onishi, Executive Director, FISC, other officers from the FISC in Japan, Ladies and Gentlemen, The Central Bank of Sri Lanka is happy to co-sponsor this programme together with the FISC of Japan (Center for Financial Industry Information Systems), in view of the importance of financial information technology in the financial services industry. Sri Lanka is no exception to continuous changes in the technology used by its financial services industry. In a market driven financial system, for information to be effective, there should be two vital ingredients, that is system integrity and timeliness - both of which are crucial. The more dependable your information systems are, the more efficient and competitive banks can be as a player in the financial services industry. That is why we see banks investing heavily in IT. Globally too, with the interdependence of markets their integration is facilitated through information systems which link these markets which make the world a very small place indeed on a PC monitor where the whole world is virtually at your doorstep.
In contrast, a little inflation “greases the wheels” of the economy, helping it to absorb shocks. One example of that is in the labour market, where workers usually resist reductions in their cash wages when economic conditions deteriorate. This behaviour can prevent the inflationadjusted value of wages from declining when demand for labour is weak, leading to  2  The volatility of inflation fell by around four-fifths in the Inflation Targeting (IT) era compared to the pre-IT era. The volatility of real GDP growth fell by around one-quarter. See also King, M (2007), “The MPC ten years on”. 3  The UK’s CPI inflation rate of 0.3% is accompanied by PCE inflation of 0.2% in the US and HICP inflation of – 0.3% in the euro area. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  unemployment. If that is the case, it may be better for the economy as a whole if firms’ real labour costs can adjust over time through increases in prices – a little inflation – instead.4 A positive average inflation rate also gives monetary policy space to respond to negative shocks by cutting interest rates. That’s because in normal times the “equilibrium” level of interest rates at which the economy would tend to settle without generating inflation reflects, broadly, the rate of underlying growth in the economy plus the inflation target. The lower is average inflation, the less scope there would be for monetary policy to reduce interest rates in response to shocks before they approach zero.

On “lowflation” and deflation  Why do we target the low, but positive, inflation rate of 2% rather than a zero or even negative rate? The simple answer is because it’s our job, given to us by the democratically elected representatives of the British people. We are accountable to Parliament for meeting it. On the occasions when inflation moves by more than 1 percentage point away from the target, we are required to explain publicly why that’s happened and what we’re doing about it in an open letter to the Chancellor. Before this year, that had happened 14 times in the past when inflation has been too high. The particularly subdued January inflation rate meant I had to write the 15th open letter, the first to address these points with respect to very low inflation. It is likely that I will have to write a few more of these over the course of the year. Our remit for 2% inflation reflects the lessons of the past, including the fight against high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, as well as the deflationary disasters that have followed past financial crises. Low, stable and predictable inflation helps to stabilise households’ and firms’ expectations about future price increases. That helps them plan their spending, investment and hiring decisions. In short, the Bank of England worries about inflation so that everyone else doesn’t have to. High inflation damages growth, in part, because high inflation also tends to be volatile, generating uncertainty that makes important economic decisions more difficult.
And the Code empowers your trading teams to demand the best from others in the market, even – or perhaps especially – when FX is not your core business. All of that means a stronger foreign exchange market. But it also means better returns for your investors – so it’s good for the bottom line. 17  https://www.globalfxc.org/education.htm?m=71%7C433 ‘Buy-side’ category includes: Asset managers, Corporate treasury departments, Pension funds, Insurance companies, Quasisovereign or supranational institutions, and Sovereign wealth funds. 18  12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  12  Conclusions  Let me conclude. In many ways, the FX market is in great shape. It’s informationally efficient, resilient, and a cauldron of technological innovation. That technology is bringing many new benefits: wider access, cheaper prices, better services. But we need to ensure those benefits are widely shared if the market is to work effectively. I’ve set out three ways for the buyside, working together, to play its part in that project: demanding better disclosures; seeking robust and independent analytical and execution tools; and signing up to the Global Code. Do that successfully, and we can turn the ‘bad’ to ‘good’ – and do away with the ‘ugly’ altogether. And Lola’s run can finally come to an end.

Finally, a fair market is one with open access, in which clients feel they can trade safely and on the basis of merit, with counterparties who hold to clear standards of market practice and integrity. And here, clearly, FX markets have had ground to make up over the past decade. Standards in some parts of the market fell  1  See Section 5.2 of https://www.bis.org/publ/cgfs37.pdf. See the July 2019 Financial Stability Report, at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/financial-stability-report/2019/july2019.pdf. 2  4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  4  unacceptably short in the years running up to, and following, the financial crisis – and that led to a concerted push to turn the corner with agreement of the FX Global Code. The overall takeup numbers are impressive: as of 9 September, there were 956 public commitments to the Code on the Global Index.3 And the Code has driven some beneficial changes in market practice – eg on information sharing. But it will take time to see whether it has led to a persistent step-up in behaviour. So, while it may be an ‘A for effort’ on fairness, it’s also a ‘must show consistent improvement’. Technology and FX market fragmentation  In many ways, though, the most profound change in FX markets has been happening elsewhere, in response to hard economics and technological innovation. As a relatively standardised, high volume product, spot FX had embraced widespread electronic trading well before the financial crisis.