samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
William C Dudley: The importance of financial conditions in the conduct of monetary policy Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, Sarasota, Florida, 30 March 2017. * * * It is a pleasure to be here today. I would like to thank the University of South Florida for sponsoring this conference. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System.1 One aspect of today’s event is the dedication of a financial laboratory to help students learn about financial markets, which I think has great value. Knowledge of how financial markets operate is an important aspect of financial and economic literacy, and it leads to greater financial security over time. For example, one important lesson is that when the promised returns on an investment offering are extraordinarily high, it is because the investment is either very risky or fraudulent. When investing, it is important to remember that if it seems to be too good to be true, it likely is! Today, I want to take the opportunity to talk about the importance of financial markets in influencing the economic outlook and, in turn, U.S. monetary policy. This is a subject near and dear to my heart.

In terms of composition, under the Budgetary Programme the brunt of the adjustment is borne by government spending, since, as a proportion of GDP, it will be reduced by nearly 1 pp, basically due to cuts in government consumption. Notable among the other expenditure items is that pensions rise by 0.25% as a result of application of the indexation formula included in the reform approved in December 2013. The Budgetary Plan envisages that the relative weight of revenue in GDP will increase by 0.4 pp, despite the fact that the phasing-in of the personal and corporate income tax reform is estimated to have a budgetary cost in 2015 of some 0.4 pp of GDP. The Budgetary Plan anticipates that the loss in tax takings associated with this reform will be offset by tax increases of the regional and local governments, the anti-fraud scheme of the Social Security system and a pick-up in tax revenue attributable to the economic recovery. Meeting the spending targets will call for a very strict budget outturn by all levels of government, as well as the achievement of savings from the reforms approved, particularly by local government. Finally, the Budget envisages a public debt ratio of 100.3% in 2015, up 2.7 pp of GDP on the projection for 2014. These figures illustrate the continuing importance the reduction of fiscal imbalances will have in the economic policy agenda for the coming years. The European Banking Union Allow me to conclude with a reference to the process of Banking Union in Europe.
Strong and far-reaching monetary policy action, including the purchases of government bonds and the introduction of negative rates, was needed to arrest a fall in inflation expectations that, in an environment of weak aggregate demand, might otherwise have led to a downward spiral in prices and wages. A faster transition towards renewables, coupled with technological breakthroughs, may pose similar challenges. It may make it more difficult for central banks to attain inflation just below 2% should firms, households and financial markets expect aggregate medium-term inflation to fall as a result of a change in the energy mix. 4/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  These risks are exacerbated by the fact that a successful energy transition is unlikely to happen in isolation. It will rather be an integral part of a much broader change in the economic structure linked to the fourth industrial revolution. The shift towards electric vehicles, for example, may go hand-in-hand with increased autonomous driving, revolutionising the transport industry. Big data analytics will help in mining climate data and facilitating climate adaption.19 And artificial intelligence is increasingly being used to increase energy efficiency.20 Together, and if adopted wisely, these trends and innovations have the potential to be an incredible force for good as they will help revert the secular fall in productivity growth.

In this regard, the involvement of multilateral agencies such as ADB would be very useful in that not only will it foster investors’ confidence if the multilateral agencies put in their own financial resources, but it will also help build the governments’ capacity in structuring projects, strengthening the PPP framework and improving project governance to make their infrastructure projects commercially viable. Secondly, shortfall in educational inputs has been seen as one of the major constraints for some developing economies to enhance productivity and move up the value chain. It has also been a major reason for the remaining pockets of poverty in the region, including in countries where substantial economic progress has been made but a substantial proportion of the population is still living in poverty. We encourage ADB to further strengthen its support for the educational sector and developing human capital, which are essential to enhancing competitiveness, eliminating poverty and addressing the rising inequality in developing Asia. Thirdly, intra-regional trade has been an important source of growth after the global financial crisis as regional economies increased their domestic demand and reduced their reliance on exports to advanced economies. As the global economy continues to rebalance, the prospect of the region to sustain its growth would very much depend on its ability to hold up domestic demand through sustained productivity enhancement as mentioned above, and further trade integration within the region.
We have not stopped to catch our breath after the euro change-overs, and we will not pause for a moment after the enlargement. In fact, the historical process of European integration that was initiated in Rome in 1957 is keeping momentum and will keep us occupied - I am sure - for long. The birth of the euro Sceptics were unconvinced as to whether it was possible to make the euro a stable currency and to successfully formulate a monetary policy for a supposedly diverse currency area. Where do we stand almost six years later? The euro has been firmly and credibly established as a stable currency. The euro area has brought with itself a period of currency stability, low rates of inflation and low levels of medium and long term market interest rates that generations in many countries had never seen before. The introduction of the euro, first, in book-entry form, and, second, in the form of banknotes and coins went extremely well under the presidency of my predecessor Wim Duisenberg to whom I would like to pay homage. The euro has become part of people’s daily lives. In January 1999, the transition to the euro in book-entry form was virtually free of implementation problems, although many people had predicted that such a big project would inevitably be delayed or affected by technical glitches or organisational failures.

Birgir Ísleifur Gunnarsson: Iceland in a global setting Keynote speech by Mr Birgir Ísleifur Gunnarsson, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Central Bank of Iceland, at the Euromoney conference on the Nordic Financial Markets and Investment Opportunities, Stockholm, 13 September 2002. *  *  *  Mr. Chairman, ladies and gentlemen. It is a pleasure to participate in this ambitious conference on the Nordic Financial Markets and Investment Opportunities. I will in my remarks today mainly focus on aspects relating to Iceland. Size separates Iceland from the other Nordic Countries, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Other factors separate the Nordic Countries as well. Finland is a member of the European Union and the Economic and Monetary Union, EMU, as well. Denmark and Sweden are members of the European Union but are outside the EMU. Norway and Iceland are outside the European Union but maintain very close ties to it, particularly through the European Economic Area Agreement. That agreement makes Norway and Iceland a part of the single market of the European Union, which entails among other things that they are obliged to maintain financial market legislation, which fully conforms to that of the European Union. The Nordic Countries have different monetary regimes. Finland is a member of the EMU, Denmark is linked to the EMU through an ERM II agreement entailing that the Danish krona is very closely tied to the euro. Sweden, Norway and Iceland have chosen an inflation-targeting regime as their monetary framework (Iceland in March 2001).
As Secretary of the Treasury Henry M. Paulson, Jr., Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and others have stated, we need a companion framework for facilitating the orderly unwinding of other types of regulated financial institutions where failure may pose risks to the stability of the financial system. The elements I just outlined need to be accompanied by a clearer structure of responsibility and authority over the payments system. Payment and settlement systems and central counterparties play a critical role in financial stability. Our current system is overseen by a patchwork of authorities, with responsibilities diffused across several agencies in a manner that leaves significant gaps. We need a more formal and integrated framework of oversight, one that establishes and enforces standards and continuously monitors the conditions in these markets. BIS Review 95/2008  3  And finally, as we adapt the U.S. framework, we have to work to bring about a consensus among the major economies on a complementary global framework. Given the level of financial integration globally, we cannot achieve a reasonable balance at home between efficiency and stability, without a complementary framework of supervision and regulation across the other major financial centers. To make it operational, the framework I just laid out will require a complicated set of choices. •  What level of conservatism should be built into future prudential regulations over capital and liquidity? •  Which types of institutions should be subject to these requirements?

In this context, prudential supervisors, working with those responsible for setting accounting standards and capital market regulations, need to systematically examine the interaction among capital, accounting, tax and disclosure requirements to assess their effects on the overall levels of leverage and risk across the financial system. As we change the framework of regulation and oversight, we need to find ways to strengthen market discipline over financial institutions, and to limit the moral hazard that is present in a range of different forms in any regulated financial system. The liquidity tools of central banks and the emergency powers of other public authorities were created in recognition of the fact that individual institutions, including those central to payments and funding mechanisms, cannot protect themselves fully from an abrupt evaporation of access to liquidity or ability to liquidate assets. The existence of these tools and their use in crises, however appropriate, creates moral hazard by encouraging market participants to engage in riskier behavior than they would have in the absence of the central bank’s backstop. To mitigate this effect on risk-taking, strong supervisory authority is required over the consolidated financial entities that are critical to a well-functioning financial system. A more resilient financial system will also require a framework for dealing with the failure of financial institutions. For entities that take deposits, we have a formal resolution framework in place.
Chart 1: Monetary policy and economic activity tightly correlated before the financial crisis  Six-month rolling averages. Combined IHS Markit/CIPS and CBI distributive trades lagged one month. Sources: ONS, IHS Markit/CIPS, CBI, Bank of England and Bank calculations. From an economic perspective, the behaviour of policy over that period was understandable. If you think trend supply growth is pretty stable – and that was generally the view at the time – then stronger activity will always mean more pressure on resources, weaker activity less of it. So, in order to stabilise inflation, your best response is to lean against these swings in demand. If, in addition, there are few other enduring influences on inflation (from the rest of the world, for example) then there’s no reason to respond to anything else. Whatever the rationale, this stable “reaction function” made it easier for asset prices to respond as well, in a similar fashion. Chart 2 plots that same survey-based measure of economic growth against expected future interest rates (specifically the three-year forward rate). Even without any verbal encouragement from the MPC monetary conditions tightened in response to stronger growth. As Mervyn King pointed out at the time, the cyclicality of forward interest rates, in anticipation of action by the MPC, itself helped to stabilise demand, putting less burden on the policy rate. (Some of you may remember that, in an unlikely comparison,  he suggested this was similar to the behaviour of the hapless England defenders against the great Diego Maradona in the 1986 World Cup.

Reliable partners – speech by Ben Broadbent Given at Gresham College, London  Published on 30 March 2022  The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was set up 25 years ago to use monetary policy to keep the rate of inflation in the UK low and stable. Ben Broadbent talks about its work. Ben focuses on some of the theory, the practice and the pitfalls of communication about the course of monetary policy over the future (sometimes called “forward guidance”). He stresses the importance of understanding that the path of policy will depend on how the outlook for the economy evolves. Speech Good morning. It’s a pleasure to be here at Gresham College, a place that has held public lectures on important societal questions for over four hundred years. That makes it one of the few City institutions that’s been around longer than the Bank of England. I would also like to thank both NIESR and the Money, Macro and Finance Society (MMF) for organising the event. Over the years the work of both institutions has been invaluable to the UK policy community. We are living through the most extraordinary – and in many ways an extraordinarily unwelcome – time. Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine has brought war to Europe for the first time in decades, with all its terrible humanitarian consequences.
This was why MAS introduced the Financial Advisers Act, or FAA, ten years ago. The FAA was a landmark regulatory reform, providing for consistency in the regulation of persons engaged in advisory activities:   across sectors: in insurance companies, banks, stockbrokers, and financial advisory firms; and    across products: life insurance, securities, futures, and unit trusts. Two years before the FA Act, an industry-led committee, the Committee for the Efficient Distribution of Life Insurance, or CEDLI, made far-reaching recommendations on minimum standards for the advisory process, and the competency of insurance agents. The FAA and CEDLI together helped transform the landscape for financial advisory services in Singapore. They have contributed to greater consistency and better quality in the advisory services provided on both life insurance and investment products. Disclosure practices have also improved. Life insurance coverage and financial investments among Singaporeans have grown over the last decade.   Life insurance as a percentage of the total assets of Singaporeans has nearly doubled from about 4% in 2000 to 7% in 2011.   Financial investments as a percentage of the total assets of Singaporeans has increased from about 14% in 2000 to 17% in 2011. But there are important gaps to fill. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  We need to do better We have a large protection gap. The average Singaporean is still grossly underinsured.

Ravi Menon: Financial advisory services – putting the customer first Keynote address by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Life Insurance Association 50th Anniversary Gala Dinner, Singapore, 26 March 2012. *  *  *  LIA President, Mr Tan Hak Leh Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good evening. Role of life insurance and financial advisory services Saving for the future, investing for returns, and protecting against risk – these are the fundamentals of managing our finances. Yet so few of us do it well. We are far better at earning an income than investing it and protecting against risk. To make matters worse, many life insurance and investment products are often not easy to understand. Many people are not financially savvy. And many of those who are, do not have the time to review the range of insurance and investment products available, and understand what is best suited for their needs. This is where financial advisory service comes in. Financial advisers can help people identify their insurance and financial planning needs and recommend suitable products. The roles of insurers and financial advisers are intimately intertwined. It must be so. Insurance protects dependants. Investments grow savings and wealth. How can we buy insurance without regard to our broader investment portfolio? Likewise, how can we invest without considering how well we are protected against death or disease? Life insurance and financial advisory services go hand in hand.
Before I discuss Norges Bank’s suite of models in greater detail, I would like to look at a few key macroeconomic variables and their interaction. Studying fundamental statistical relationships provides important insight into the functioning of the economy. Along with the theoretical foundation, such insight is one of the most important building blocks of a good analytical apparatus for implementing monetary policy. Let me begin by taking a look at the relationship between output and inflation. In recent years, consumer price inflation (CPI) has fluctuated between 0 and 3 per cent. Mainland GDP growth has also fluctuated, giving rise to economic cycles. The chart shows developments in the two variables measured as deviations from long-term trend growth, in other words an “inflation gap” and an “output gap”.4 When the output gap is positive, the  4  The gaps express deviations from estimated trends in seasonally adjusted figures for mainland GDP and CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE), respectively. The trends are estimated using a Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter on quarterly data with λ=40000. The output gap in this analysis is a technical estimate and does not fully correspond with the output gap in Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy Report. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  economy is usually in an upturn, while the economy is in a downturn when the gap is negative.

This Leadership Energy Summit will hear from the experience of successful individuals on the source of their energy in generating outcomes and results that have made a difference. We will also learn about other sources of energy from which we can tap on and strengthen. This is the challenge of the new generation of leaders if they will truly be able to make lasting and meaningful changes in their environment. On this note, let me wish you a highly energised Summit. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
But I do believe that a continuation of strong demand growth, with all else equal, requires the members of the Riksbank’s Executive Board to consider how we can best ensure that economic growth in Sweden remains stable. How soon and with what safety margin shall demand be brought back to the rate that is sustainable in the long run? Do we need to take out the insurance provided by an early, small adjustment of the interest rate? Or can we wait? That is something about which opinions can differ slightly. In my opinion, there is no reason as yet to reduce the expansionary effect on the Swedish economy that monetary policy is currently exerting. A monetary policy adjustment will indeed be called for at some time in the economic upswing but I still see its timing as an open question. My colleagues and I on the Executive Board, as well as all those who analyse us, must follow the incoming statistics closely. New knowledge and new insights must be continuously woven into the analysis. Maintaining price stability, as the law prescribes, accordingly means that the Riksbank delivers its contribution to making growth in the Swedish economy sustainable. 5  BIS Review 92/1999

Chairperson, I am happy to state that “Banking on Health”, with support from the U.S. Government, has worked to address some of the barriers to credit by providing market research information on the private medical sector to commercial banks and microfinance institutions so that they can understand the business characteristics of the sector. The financial management training that Banking on Health provides to health businesses also lowers the risk of lending to these borrowers. Ladies and Gentlemen, let me end by pointing out that the challenges arising from the global financial and economic crisis are huge but surmountable. Major economies of the world are putting in place various stimulus packages, which are expected to take the world economy out of the crisis. Without doubt, these measures will benefit emerging and developing economies as well, provided that we remain committed to pursuing strong socio-economic policies. Although the global financial crisis has negatively affected the Zambian economy in many respects and presents serious challenges to maintaining the health of the economy, macroeconomic stability has been maintained. The Bank of Zambia has continued to monitor the global developments and take appropriate measures to maintain confidence in the banking system and avoid systemic risk. It is important to note that despite the crisis, there still remains investment confidence in the Zambian economy and one example of this is the number of new commercial banks that have commenced operations in Zambia in the last 12 months.