samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Growing importance of Asia for the SNB’s investment policy In recent decades, the focus of global economic activity has increasingly been shifting towards Asia. The region now accounts for more than a third of global economic output. Asia has contributed more than 50% to global growth over the last decade, with China and India together generating over 40% (left-hand side of slide 2). For Switzerland – a country that is highly export-oriented – Asia has become increasingly significant, too. Swiss companies exported almost CHF 30 billion of goods to the region last year, almost three times more than in 2000, bringing its share to 14% of the country’s total exports (right-hand side of slide 2). Asian countries have made substantial progress in developing their financial markets since the Asian crisis at the end of the 1990s. Most financial markets in the region have become significantly more liquid and diversified than they were 15 years ago thanks to gradual liberalisation of capital flows, better financial market infrastructure and an expanding domestic investor base. Hong Kong and Singapore now rank among the world’s most important financial centres. Between 2003 and 2013, Asian stock markets’ contribution to global market capitalisation increased from approximately 20% to over 30%.1 Bond issues denominated in local currencies have also gained steadily in importance. This market quadrupled in size between 2005 and 2014 and now totals some USD 8,000 billion.2 Equally, Asian financial centres have made substantial inroads into global foreign exchange markets in recent years (left-hand side of slide 3).

Internationally he has inspired countless policymakers, myself included. On behalf of all colleagues past and present, I would like to echo the Chancellor by thanking Charlie for his exceptional period of public service and the enormous contribution he has made to the economic well-being of this country. Macroeconomic balance The UK economy is currently unbalanced internally and externally. Internally, there is wasteful spare capacity – an output gap – concentrated in the labour market. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) currently estimates this gap to be around 1–1½% of GDP, though we caution against false precision as there are wide confidence bands around this central view. The MPC’s current guidance makes clear that we will set monetary policy to meet the inflation target while using up that spare capacity. This has implications for the timing, pace and degree of Bank Rate increases. There’s already great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike and this decision is becoming more balanced. It could happen sooner than markets currently expect. 1  As reported in the Montreal Gazette, August 17, 1931. The Financial Times of the same day reported Norman as saying “I feel I want a bit of a rest, because I have had a very hard time lately. I haven’t been quite as well as I would like, and I think the trip will do me good”. 2  Bank staff project annualised growth of 4% for the current quarter. That incorporates expected upward revisions to early official estimates.
This also means that the main cost of joining the euro area - the loss of monetary policy independence has already been largely incurred as the euro carries a 70% weight in the currency basket and the progressive lifting of exchange controls has reduced the central bank’s ability to set interest rates independently of world markets. Second, the Maltese economy is already closely integrated with the euro area. This is borne out not only by trade patterns, but also by the similarity of Malta’s sectoral distribution of value added and employment. Our business cycle, too, has become increasingly correlated with that of the euro area. BIS Review 16/2004  1  This synchronization is likely to grow further as exchange rate volatility declines and transactions costs fall and, if the correlation between business cycles is indeed endogenous in a monetary union, as our trade with the euro area intensifies. In addition, differences in productivity levels between Malta and the euro area in the traded goods sector appear to be minor, which suggests that the BalassaSamuelson effect is unlikely to be strong. Similarities are also to be found in the financial system. For example, the degree of financial intermediation in Malta is comparable to that of the euro area, and the long-term interest rate is well within the Maastricht reference value. Further evidence that the economy seems well prepared to join a monetary union is the fact that nominal wages have been sufficiently flexible to carry the burden of adjustment implicit in a fixed exchange rate regime.

Therefore, we predict the upward trend in the current account deficit to persist in the short run also taking into account the low base effect from last year. Yet, we also envisage that the dampening effects of our recent policy measures on loans and imports will materialize as of the second quarter of the year. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Distinguished Guests, 26. Domestic credit volume, which surged in 2010, accelerated further in the final quarter of the year. As the effects of the crisis waned, the number of sectors utilizing loans increased rapidly and maturities were extended. An analysis of the rise in real sector loans by sub-categories reveals that this rise was supported by the rally in both consumer and business loans. Meanwhile, loan utilization by small and medium-sized enterprises, which were those hit most severely by the crisis, increased as well. 27. I would like to underline that the vigorous loan utilization was underpinned by measures taken by the CBRT in the aftermath of the crisis with a view to maintain the functionality of the credit markets, as well as by the consequent rapid recovery in economic activity and the favorable economic outlook. Furthermore, ample global liquidity owing to the monetary easing implemented by major central banks and the favorable economic outlook providing low and foreseeable interest rates were also instrumental in stimulating loan utilization.
Amid an increasingly competitive world, constantly reshaped by deep-seated changes which alter the classical paradigms, investing in research and innovation is no longer a luxury, but a necessity. It is the path towards  3  achieving the rapid and sustainable growth Africa needs to meet the aspirations of its population, especially the youth. It is also the only alternative to prevent the divide with the advanced countries from widening further. In areas such as economy and finance, there is a huge need for cutting-edge research that takes into account the specificities of Africa. No one can deny the laudable initiatives and projects focusing on Africa, such as the one carried out between 2007 and 2014 by the U.S National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), nor the establishment, within prestigious universities, of centers dedicated to Africa. However, the continent should enhance its own skills and develop its national capacities. Central banks are particularly aware of this challenge. Monetary policy decision-making requires a thorough understanding of the economy and its performance drivers. To this end, we need to build up models which draw on the most recent advances in economics, while taking into account our realities, oftentimes different from those of advanced countries. As such, we are facing two major challenges. The first one is related to the lack of knowledge as to the mechanisms underlying the functioning of our economies, on which we can capitalize. We therefore called upon to develop our own formalization of the economy from scratch.

2  Among all the scientific meetings that we have organized so far, this event holds a particular importance, in view of the strong participation of African researchers and of its focus on the economic issues of the Continent. For several years now, Morocco has been committed to a policy of openness to Africa to further reinforce their ties, already strong by history, geography and culture, and to promote a win-win co-development in all fields. As a central bank, our contribution lies in accompanying the banking system in its expansion and in maintaining a broad cooperation with several similar institutions of the continent. Today, we are pleased to pursue this contribution for the benefit of research. Ladies and gentlemen, Africa, as we know, performs poorly in the field of research. The Continent, now home to nearly 17 percent of the world's population and more than one quarter by 2050, produces only 5 percent of the wealth, measured by the purchasing power parity, and contributes to the world’s scientific publications by no more than 2.6 percent, according to the latest UNESCO Science Report published in 2015. In Morocco, we are well aware that developing human capital and research is not an easy task. Despite the strong will and a budgetary effort of around 6 percent of GDP, we still struggle to put our education system on track to provide the skills adequate for the labor market and to develop research and innovation.
There are certain similarities between projecting developments in the Norwegian economy in the coming months and forecasting the weather. Meteorologists have observed that averaging a large number of forecasting models generally produces more accurate forecasts. 1  Ysander, Bengt-Christer, “Award Ceremony Speech”, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 10 December 1989. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  To project consumer price inflation in the coming quarters the Bank has developed a system for averaging forecasts from about 170 different statistical models, all of which are intended to project inflation in the Norwegian economy in the very near term. The models are grouped into three classes, and the models within each class may contain different variables or be variants of one another2. The weights are continually adjusted on the basis of historical accuracy, so that models with better predictive power are given greater weight in the subsequent round. The Bank has a similar system including almost 250 models for forecasting mainland GDP. The projections from these systems of models extend four quarters ahead in time and are published at regular intervals on the Bank’s website. We call this apparatus SAM (System for Averaging Models). For projections with slightly longer horizons, the Bank parts company with weather forecasters. While meteorologists are unlikely to influence the weather with their predictions, Norges Bank’s interest rate setting can actually influence economic developments in the medium term. This places particular demands on the system of analysis and involves other demands than if the sole purpose were to make forecasts.

Financial authorities are nevertheless faced with a new challenge, which is to strengthen financial stability in a context of amplified financial cycles. I would like to stress what I feel is the highly complementary nature of price stability and financial stability objectives: price stability is the bedrock on which financial stability is built. Central banks have a undoubtedly special responsibility due to their position at the heart of financial systems: ·  they contribute directly to supplying liquidity to the economy,  ·  their close and constant contact with credit institutions gives them a thorough understanding of banking systems,  ·  they contribute to banking supervision,  ·  last but not least, central banks are responsible for a safe and efficient functioning of payment systems and, at least for some of them, of securities clearing and settlement systems. I thank you for your attention. 4  BIS Review 54/2001
Nevertheless, the gradual decline in its share of global foreign exchange reserves, which began in the mid-2010s, has gained momentum since 2020, and we are witnessing a renewal of the debate on the dollar's continued role as the anchor of the IMS. Let's not be naive: geopolitical forces are powerfully at work, all the more so since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. China, the world's secondlargest economy, has been expressing its wish to internationalise the renminbi for several years now; this has already materialised in its trade i and could accelerate over the next few years. In particular, the climate transition will lead us to reduce our consumption of fossil fuels and considerably increase our consumption of resources for generating cleaner energy. As a result, we are likely to witness a profound reconfiguration of international trade and financial balances and, potentially, of the balance of power between currencies. China, for example, has positioned itself at key points in supply chains, and has a very dominant, even hegemonic, share of certain finished products. ii The use of the Chinese currency is on the rise: in 2022, 7% of transactions on foreign exchange markets had a renminbi leg, iii a figure twice as high as in 2019, thanks in particular to the offshore centres created since 2010. China also plays a major role as a bilateral creditor - with outstanding loans estimated at more than USD 350 billion, iv i.e.

One of the main levers for action is to increase the supply of safe eurodenominated assets. The launch in 2021 of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) programme will raise EUR 800 billion. Above all, the unified approach to  Page 5 sur 6 financing EU borrowing, which was introduced by the Commission in 2023, means that bonds xii can be issued under the single name of "EU bonds", which has the advantage of avoiding fragmentation and boosting the liquidity of issues. But I believe we need to go further, by aiming to bring together the bond issues of the Commission, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and maybe the European Investment Bank: the total pool would then amount to EUR 1,100 billion. We also need to speed up the implementation of the Capital Markets Union (CMU), which is crucial for ensuring a better allocation of capital within the euro area: this internal integration priority also serves the euro's external role. These first, realistic steps are the only advances within our reach at this stage. They should not divert our attention from the "creative frontier" xiii that a truly multilateral financial system would represent. The ultimate goal remains to lead the IMF to become a more universal, accessible and agile lender of last resort. This would require adjusting the IMF's role and financial capacity in the global financial safety net, to better reflect the new global economic balances and prevent some under-represented countries from taking or pursuing more unilateral routes.
•  Innovative: financial institutions need to be able to respond quickly and effectively to customer demand, and must not lose sight of the new opportunities from mobile banking and other social network. Higher levels of innovation are necessary, while still focusing their attention on their own core competencies. •  Efficiency: financial institutions need to deliver financial services with high efficiency in terms of cost, quality, and product availability. Business processes, strategies, and supporting systems may need to be revised or reconsidered in order to maintain market share and attract new customers. Dealing with the above factors is not an easy task. At this moment, Information and Communication Technology is perhaps going to be the most powerful catalyst. As a central bank, the Bank of Thailand faces the challenge of maintaining stability, encouraging development, and ensuring financial inclusion. All of these roles are interrelated. Stable economic and financial system will allow private sector to invest and consume optimally which is good for development. The development in financial system must meet local needs and done in good pace. Importantly, central bank needs to make sure that no one is left behind and, that there are appropriate access to financial services. The introduction of AEC will have implications on all functions of central banking, and the central bank will have to take into account the three roles when performing its functions.

It may just reflect the increasing patience that comes with advancing years, but I believe we have in fact made very real progress towards defining common objectives, and agreeing upon tangible steps that will help us towards achieving those objectives, in relation both to monetary, and broader macroeconomic, stability and to creating a more effective and more robust financial system. It is of course an endless journey, and no doubt we will from time to time run into rough waters. But I'm convinced that our snail will keep moving forwards – and that it will even learn to swim! 6  BIS Review 36/2001
First, it decided to continue to support ample liquidity conditions by conducting its refinancing operations as fixed-rate tender procedures with full allotment, at least until mid-January 2012. Let me point out that the outstanding Eurosystem credit in our refinancing operations currently amounts to about € billion and has come down since last year. The total value of marketable securities already presented and approved for Eurosystem credit operations amounts to € trillion and our counterparties have at their disposal almost € trillion out of the overall total of  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  existing eligible securities of about € trillion. Therefore, this confirms that there is no liquidity or collateral shortage for the euro area banking system. Second, the ECB resumed its government bond market interventions under its Securities Markets Programme (SMP) in August. Via these interventions, the ECB Governing Council aims to help restore a more appropriate transmission of its monetary policy stance in an environment in which key market segments, such as those for government paper, are dysfunctional. The interventions do not influence our monetary policy stance. In order to sterilise the impact of these interventions on the liquidity conditions in the banking system, we re-absorb the liquidity injected. Let me underline that the secondary market purchases are not, and cannot be used to circumvent the principle of budgetary discipline as a pillar of Economic and Monetary Union.

Vítor Constâncio: Laudatio for Professor Kenneth Rogoff, recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics Speech by Mr Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, at the Laudatio for Professor Kenneth Rogoff, recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, Frankfurt am Main, 22 September 2011. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure to address a few words to mark the awarding of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics to Professor Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University. I will recall some of Professor Rogoff’s outstanding contributions to economics and financial economics, and I will also comment on some of his research in the context of the responses to the current crisis. Let me first emphasise that research plays a crucial role for the Eurosystem – just as it does for other central banks. Indeed, research has provided an essential input to the definition of the ECB’s price-stability monetary policy strategy. I would thus like to express my appreciation to Professor Rogoff for the influential contributions he has made in many fields of special relevance to central bank policymakers, ranging from monetary policy to international finance and financial crises. He merits particular praise for helping us to improve our understanding of some of the main causes and mechanisms behind the links between financial crises and sovereign debt crises.
The Inflation Reports contain different measures of how households and companies expect the rate of price increase to develop. Pricing on the financial markets can also provide some information here. A further type of inflation expectation is reflected in the various forecasters’ assessments of developments. The Riksbank bases its estimations on a total assessment of these different measures of inflation expectations. Stable and low inflation expectations affect both companies’ pricing behaviour and wage formation, as well as having a beneficial effect, as far as monetary policy is concerned, on how consumers react to price changes. Companies’ pricing behaviour is based partly on the development of marginal costs, the competitive situation, demand and inflation expectations. If a company has confidence in the Riksbank’s monetary policy, its prices will not be affected as much by temporary changes in, for instance, supply, demand or the exchange rate. In this situation, the company can assume that inflation will return to the longterm trend once the effects of the disturbance subside. A credible inflation target can thus contribute to maintaining the monetary policy target at lower cost in terms of fluctuations in demand and interest rates. One means of inspiring confidence is to show a high degree of openness and clarity with regard to how monetary policy is conducted. The fact that the Riksbank describes the considerations regarding economic prospects that form the basis for the interest rate decisions makes it easier for external analysts to understand and predict monetary policy.

On the other hand, the uncertainty over developments in the labour market, lasting imbalances in savings and volatile stock market developments comprise a continued risk factor in the forecast. There are also signs that the industrial sectors in many other OECD countries are entering a phase of recovery. One particular risk factor in the developments is, in my opinion, that equity prices have been pushed up in the USA, given the economic situation. At the same time, the degree of indebtedness in the private sector remains relatively low. The low real interest rate entails risks for future developments in asset prices, particularly for the stock market. These risks need not be impending in the current situation, but the problems could become tangible in a couple of years’ time. This means that there is a risk that economic policy, which is very expansive in order to avoid a strong downward spiral, would postpone the adjustment of imbalances in the economy. Some parallels can be drawn with the events that took place after the crisis in 1987, when a financial bubble recurred. A further example of an asset bubble way back in time is what happened in the USA in 1927. At that time, the US central bank pursued an expansive monetary policy in order to stabilise the gold standard. This contributed to an over-valuation of assets and later to the crash in 1929.