samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
4 The requirements will be eased when the assessment indicates that imbalances in the housing market have receded. Similar measures have been introduced in the UK. Views on how actively this type of instrument should be used vary both among researchers and international fora. In particular, the question of whether frequent changes are appropriate has been raised. As I mentioned earlier, high and rapidly rising credit has historically been associated with more frequent and deeper financial crises. This would imply that there are substantial gains to be made from introducing measures to dampen credit swings. On the other hand, it has been pointed out that experience of using these instruments is limited and that their effectiveness is still an open question. A policy in the direction of fine-tuning credit may in addition dampen key market mechanisms that contribute to channelling credit to where it can obtain the highest return. A highly ambitious use of the instruments also places considerable demands on the level of coordination. In Norway, shortcomings in banking regulation have in recent years been addressed primarily by means of structural measures. The permanent capital requirements for banks have been increased. In early summer this year, the Ministry of Finance designated three banks as systemically important and will be subject to additional capital requirements. In addition, Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) has tightened requirements for banks’ internal risk models, which will contribute to increasing the equity banks will have to hold against residential mortgage loans than was the case earlier.

And there will often be scope for those affected to work out ways to circumvent them, including by moving activities outside the regulatory perimeter. As Federal Reserve Board Governor Jeremy Stein has noted, monetary policy may be a blunt tool for addressing financial stability risks, but it does have the virtue that it “gets in all of the cracks”. 7 So, there may well be times when monetary policy is the only game in town to guard against incipient financial stability risks. In that case, we are back in the world where monetary policy makers need to be prepared to consciously lean against the wind by deliberately undershooting their inflation target in the near term in order to reduce the likelihood of something nastier down the road. This thinking has now been embodied in the Chancellor’s remit for the MPC, which sets our objectives each year. It notes that “circumstances may arise in which attempts to keep inflation at the inflation target could exacerbate the development of imbalances that the FPC may judge to represent a potential risk to financial stability. The FPC’s macroprudential tools are the first line of defence against such risks, but in these circumstances the MPC may wish to allow inflation to deviate from the target temporarily.” The remit also directs the MPC to have regard for the actions of the FPC and vice versa. I opened my remarks tonight by observing that my time at the Bank has neatly fallen into two halves.
In the short term, the present situation, marked by the necessary increase in interest rates and the high uncertainty regarding growth and inflation projections, means that banks face significant risks in different balance sheet segments. At the net interest income level, the substantial improvements recorded by some banks cannot be considered long-lasting and it is reasonable to believe that, as the higher interest rate environment persists, their funding costs will likely rise further. The increase in the cost of funding may accelerate for banks, driven by the gradual reduction in Eurosystem liquidity facilities, and their increased cost, and the developments seen in deposits, with depositors seeking better remunerated financial instruments and part of the savings buffers accumulated during the pandemic having been depleted. The continuation and/or heightening of the recent tensions in the global banking sector could also contribute to this increase. 6  Moreover, the value of fixed income financial exposures (e.g. bonds, especially those with longer maturities) has declined. In addition, credit quality, which remains highly resilient, may ultimately weaken as inflation and rising interest rates erode real disposable income. This would drive up provisioning and reduce income generation capacity. In this respect, although the debt levels of non-financial corporations and households have fallen considerably since the global financial crisis,15 debt-servicing costs are climbing sharply as interest rates rise.

There was a reduction in Stage 2 loans in the same period, to stand at 7.2% in March, although this level remains above its pre-pandemic figure of 5.9%.11 Forborne exposures also dropped, to 4.1% of all lending to the resident private sector in March 2023, below their pre-pandemic level (5%), while foreclosed assets saw a 14.5% fall in 2022.12 As for credit backed by Spain’s Official Credit Institute (ICO), the proportion classified as Stage 2 shrank in the 12-months before March 2023 by 3.2 pp to 19.6%. However, nonperforming assets in this portfolio increased by 70% in 2022, lifting the NPL ratio to 8.2% (up by 4.1 pp on March 2022). The reduction in the size of this portfolio (14.9% yearon-year to March 2023) accounted for 1.2 pp of the increase in the NPL ratio. Profitability Return on assets (ROA) has continued to improve, up to 0.71% in March 2023,13 one of the highest levels in the last decade. Meanwhile, return on equity (ROE) stood at 11.3%, more than 400 bp over the level observed in 2019 and above the cost of equity. The improvement in profitability stems, mainly, from the growth in net interest income, which rose by 28.5% year-on-year,14 driven by the fact, as I mentioned earlier, that the increase in market interest rates has been passed through to loans more than to deposits. Conversely, impairment losses climbed by 38.8%, as a result of business abroad, as they rose by barely 1.7% in business in Spain.
Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus: Keynote address - Regional Conference on Climate Change Keynote address by Ms Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Regional Conference on Climate Change, Kuala Lumpur, 25 September 2019. * * * It is my pleasure to welcome you to today’s Regional Conference on Climate Change. The recent shroud of haze in Malaysia and neighbouring countries is a timely reminder of the environmental challenges confronting our generation and the generations to follow. With the passing of time, these challenges have become more pressing, and their consequences more dire. Yet, our response – at the industry, national and global level – is only just beginning to catch up to the enormous task we face. As described by the former UN Secretary-General, “we are the last generation that can take steps to avoid the worst impacts of climate change”. Climate change does not just threaten polar bears in the Arctic. It also threatens our socioeconomic prosperity here in Southeast Asia. It poses risks to the fiscal position of governments, the viability of businesses and the living standards of individuals. As such, the effects of climate change are not merely an ecological problem for scientists and conservationists to worry about. It presents a major economic issue with direct implications on financial stability. It is for this reason that Bank Negara Malaysia, along with many other central banks around the globe, are giving serious attention to climate risk.

Regardless of whether these concerns are justified, the fact remains that the industry is faced with significant transition risks. The government and industry’s response to these risks will ultimately determine the resulting economic impact on firms in the industry, their counterparties and the economy more broadly. Inevitably, some adjustments will need to be made. Already, the industry is working towards the end-2019 deadline for certification of Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) compliance. But the stark reality is that these adjustments will not come easily, especially for smallholders. In this regard, I would like to applaud the effort made by several banks to educate and assist borrowers in the palm oil industry in their journey to obtain MSPO certification. Such efforts are crucial to ensure that the transition is orderly and can be sustained. How we can work towards building climate resilience Having established – I hope – a clear case for action, let me now address how we can work towards building climate resilience together. The Bank has identified several key priorities. First, we have to develop the tools and capacity for identifying climate risks relevant to financial business. Climate change science is complex and multivariate. Getting to grips with issues such as weather patterns, groundwater management and sustainable palm oil go well beyond the remit of traditional cash flow projections, credit loss modelling or interest rate yield curves.
By the way, we are talking here about a “European model” and not a “European way of life” which has been discussed a lot in recent days. In short, Europe can proudly define itself as a social, environmental and multilateral model. 2.1 The social model: the fight against inequalities The rise in inequalities has – fortunately, in my eyes – become once again a major economic and social issue, as evidenced by the success of the work of Joseph Stiglitz xii and Thomas Piketty. xiii This too long-ignored problem has been at the heart of election results – from Donald Trump to Brexit – and is one of the main reasons for the democratic crisis and the rise of "populism". On the economic front, international institutions, the OECD xiv and the IMF, xv have studied the impact of inequalities on growth. Their findings are clear: persistent inequalities reduce the long-term growth potential of economies. According to some OECD estimates, in the United States and United  Page 6 of 10  Kingdom, growth in GDP per capita between 1990 and 2010 would have been 20% higher if income inequalities had not increased. Much can be learned from the European model. Firstly, because it is less inegalitarian, especially thanks to redistribution. According to the World Inequality Lab, after redistribution, the income of the wealthiest 10% of US households is, on average, twelve times higher than that of the poorest 50%, compared to a ratio of eight in Europe.

This is partly because the listings function is the more visible part of the SRO to investors and listed companies. But in fact, the SRO function is much broader. Besides functioning as a listing authority, the SGX’s SRO role also encompasses a market surveillance function to uphold the integrity of the market, and a member supervision function to ensure participants’ adherence to trading and clearing rules. 14. So removing the SRO function from the SGX – as some have suggested – could mean that the exchange will not need to undertake market surveillance; nor to regulate members for compliance with rules of the exchange. Others have suggested removing only the listing authority function from SGX. But the flip side is that this risks losing the synergy of its regulatory function with its other roles pertaining to the development of a viable and credible marketplace; and creates ambiguity as to who oversees proper conduct of listed companies – the separate listing authority or the exchange. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  15. It is worth noting that SGX’s SRO function is neither a new invention nor “uniquely Singapore”. Exchange self-regulation has a long history in financial markets and in many established markets. Most, if not all exchanges globally, perform a varying range of SRO functions.
Eddie George: Financial stability and the City the evolving role of the Bank of England  Speech by The Rt Hon Eddie George, Governor of the Bank of England, at the London Chamber of Commerce Conference, held in London, on 13 June 2000. *  *  *  Thank you, Chairman. I’m pleased to take part in this Conference, and to share the platform this morning with Gavin, but also with Howard Davies my long-standing partner in crime - or perhaps I should say in crime prevention. You ask me to talk about the evolving role of the Bank of England, in relation to financial stability in particular, which I’m happy to do. In fact it is rather easier to talk confidently about our role these days since it is now more clearly defined. A remarkable thing about the earlier legislation - the 1946 Bank of England Act - was that it made no mention of the Bank’s essential “raisons d’être” - what we were there to do. It seems to have been taken for granted that everyone knew what our role was. But about a decade ago we decided to define our core purposes more precisely for ourselves, primarily for internal management reasons. We identified three core purposes. The first two: –  the maintenance of monetary stability; and  –  the maintenance of the stability of the financial system are key objectives of central banks pretty well everywhere.

A further interest rate increase will stabilise growth in output and employment. Capacity utilisation may in time be brought down somewhat and stabilise. This will curb the rise in inflation, so that it stabilises close to target. Developments in inflation and capacity utilisation seem to provide a reasonable balance between the various objectives of monetary policy. The interest rate is sufficiently low for inflation to approach the target of 2.5 per cent while avoiding a capacity utilisation level that is too high. Projections are uncertain. We have illustrated this uncertainty in the projections for the interest rate, the krone exchange rate, inflation and capacity utilisation using fan charts. The width of the fan is based on historical disturbances. However, there is no certainty that future disturbances will be of the same character or scale. The wider the fans, the more uncertain the forecasts are. In other words, uncertainty with regard to the interest rate reflects the monetary policy response to unexpected disturbances in inflation, output and the exchange rate. BIS Review 35/2006  5  When the interest rate, as forecast in the baseline scenario, is raised to a more normal level, Norges Bank will be able to assess the effects of interest rate changes and other new information about economic developments. According to our projections, inflation will be close to target three years ahead.
These made it possible to track – almost in real time – the number of applications to job retention schemes by region and industry and to analyse the use of job retention schemes by large firms. In similar vein, high-frequency data on weekly credit card payments can serve as a proxy for retail sales, and the consumption of inputs such as electricity, gas and fuel as a proxy for activity levels. Chart 8 High-frequency labour market indicators: hiring rate and job postings  Sources: LinkedIn, Indeed and ECB calculations. Notes: The methodology behind the high-frequency indicators on new hires and job postings is documented in the box entitled “High-frequency data developments in the euro area labour market”, Economic Bulletin, Issue 5, ECB, 2020. The latest observation is for February 2021. Survey-based information has proven especially useful during the pandemic. In addition to the wellestablished financial surveys carried out by the ECB (such as the bank lending survey and the survey on the access to finance of enterprises), the qualitative information collected in the regular corporate telephone survey and the rich information contained in the pilot consumer expectations survey have been important in policy-making. Addressing the measurement challenges Many of the indicators that we monitor at the ECB are provided by the national statistical institutes and the European Statistical System (ESS). The excellent cooperation between the ESS and the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) during this challenging period has therefore been particularly valuable.

For a discussion of the measurement challenges, see also the conclusions of the 2019 DGINS conference in Bratislava; the ESCB medium-term strategies on balance of payments and financial accounts; and the Committee on Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments vision paper on globalisation and statistics. Some progress has been recognised, including in the European Strategy for data and in a recent G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors communiqué, which includes a requirement for exploring the launch of a new global Data Gaps Initiative. 15. See also the conclusions and follow-ups of the 2019 DGINS conference. 16. See also Lane, P.R. (2020), op. cit. The ESS-sponsored European network of MNE coordinators holds a similar view.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Potential for new linkages and opportunities between Japan and Malaysia Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Malaysia-Japan Business Forum "Enhancing New Linkages And Opportunities", Kuala Lumpur, 24 August 2007. *  *  *  It is my honour and great pleasure to be here to speak at this important forum which brings together government leaders and the business community from our two countries. I would like to take the opportunity to thank the Japan External Trade Organisation (JETRO) for inviting me to speak at this Forum. JETRO has played an important role in fostering the economic relations between Malaysia and Japan. While Japan and Malaysia has established strong economic ties, the environment in which we are operating has experienced pronounced changes. These changes present the potential for new linkages and opportunities between Japan and Malaysia. Enhancing interlinkages and integration in Asia Asia today is increasingly recognised as a dynamic growth region in the global economy. Asia's previous success was accomplished in part by strengthening its global interlinkages by exports to the rest of the world. Today, new regional interlinkages are emerging as Asia expands further its trade and investment within the region, a trend that has generated mutually reinforcing regional growth. The Asian economic integration is now already well advanced through the intensification of intra-regional trade and investment. Trade within Asia now accounts for more than half of the total trade of the region.

Far from being a closed Club, the Euro area is open and has a true calling for covering all the EU members, in so far as they fulfil the convergence criteria. Indeed, adopting the Euro can be seen as a legal obligation for all EU members once they have fulfilled the Maastricht convergence criteria. Monetary union is an on-going process. Starting in 1999 with 11 members, the Euro area has regularly expanded. On the 1st of January 2001, Greece joined the Euro area. More recently, on the 1st of January 2007, Slovenia was the first of the New Members States which entered into the EU since 2004 to adopt the Euro; this brought the current number of members of the Euro area to 13. Two more NMS – Cyprus and Malta – will join the monetary union in 2008. At this stage, the relevant question for the new EU member states is thus not whether but when to join the Euro area. The answer of this question is clear: the New Members States have to achieve strict and sustainable fulfilment of the Maastricht criteria whose economic rationale is very strong. Why strict and sustainable?
The challenge for the MPC is to assess when inflationary pressures will be building and thus when we need to start withdrawing stimulus, so that once we have eliminated slack in the economy, monetary policy is consistent with stable, sustainable growth and hence stable inflation around the target (subject of course to the other forces acting on the economy at the time). That’s an extremely optimistic expectation of what policy can achieve, so let me put it slightly differently. The realistic challenge for the MPC is to avoid a big mistake either by choking off the recovery too soon, leaving the economy in a quagmire, or by allowing inflationary pressures to build excessively, requiring a sharp tightening in interest rates (and the potential for another recession) to bring inflation back under control. Forward guidance is a policy framework designed, amongst other things, to help avoid big mistakes. We can encourage and probe growth in the economy by committing not to tighten policy until the economy has used up more of its spare capacity. On one view the policy is simple – we must give the economy plenty of time to establish the recovery before we start to raise interest rates or unwind asset purchases. At another level, some critical judgements are  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  going to be needed because the timing is inevitably uncertain. Given those uncertainties, forward guidance delivers a framework within which the MPC can explore the scope for economic expansion without putting price and financial stability at risk.

Paul Fisher: Inflation, interest rates and forward guidance Speech by Mr Paul Fisher, Executive Director for Markets of the Bank of England, at State Street Global Advisors London Pensions and Investments Breakfast Briefing, London, 23 January 2014. *  *  *  The speaker is also chair of the ifs University College. Any views aired in this speech are given in his capacity as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. The speaker is grateful to Geoff Coppins for helping to prepare this talk and many colleagues for comments, but any blame for the content is for the speaker alone. This morning I would like to discuss some of the important issues currently influencing the setting of monetary and financial policy by the Bank of England. Those policies may have a direct bearing on pension funds; most obviously you might think via the yields on financial assets but perhaps more importantly via the stability of the real economy. Developments in inflation First of all I want to note the importance the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) attaches to CPI inflation being close to its target of 2%. Indeed it is currently at exactly its target of two point zero per cent for the first time since April 2006! (Although it did drop below 2% for a time in 2007 and 2009).