samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
We forecast also a return to productivity growth – a real casualty of the recession – that would drive higher pay and hence provide a more sustainable base for consumer spending. And, as a corollary of higher productivity we thought the growth in output would be accompanied by a slower fall in unemployment. So overall, our expectation at the time I joined was that the recovery would broaden out in 2014. But over the year the boost from pent up demand would fade and as a result growth would begin to fall back from very strong rates to a pace around its historic averages. Three other MPC judgments from my first meeting and Inflation Report are also worth recalling. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  First, we did not think the UK economy would get much help from the rest of the world. A combination of relatively weak growth in the parts of the word that mattered most for UK exports, particularly the Euro area, and the disappointing performance of UK exports in recent years led us to believe that the UK’s net trade would not provide a material contribution to growth. Second, while we expected productivity growth to pick up in 2014 we did not forecast that the UK would recover any of the very substantial amount of productivity growth, 14% relative to the pre-crisis trend, that had been “lost” in the five years since the crisis.

Many households – including those previously lacking access to credit or with access only to expensive credit – found they could borrow on a significant scale to finance the purchase of a home and other expenses. Prices rose across a range of real and financial assets, most notably the prices of homes. This constellation of broad economic and financial conditions was accompanied by rapid innovation in financial instruments that made credit risk easier to trade and, in principle at least, to hedge. These instruments allowed investors to buy insurance or protection against a broader range of individual credit risks, such as the default by a home owner or a company. Issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS), collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and  BIS Review 27/2008  1  collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), as well as credit default swaps (CDS), expanded on a dramatic scale, particularly from 2005 through to mid-2007. And over this same period, the composition of the assets in ABS, as well as in CDOs and CLOs, shifted to higher credit risk mortgages and loans issued by noninvestment grade companies. Even though these instruments allow credit risk to be shared, their holders remain exposed to the less probable, but potentially very damaging effects of a significant increase in losses driven by macroeconomic factors. As underwriting standards deteriorated over this period, this exposure grew. And yet risk premia continued to fall, suggesting that investors did not fully appreciate the dynamic that was at work.
Hamad Al-Sayari: A brief overview of the Saudi Arabian banking sector Speech by His Excellency Hamad Al-Sayari, Governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, at the opening of a branch of the National Bank of Kuwait, Jeddah, 6 May 2006. *  *  *  Dear Audience, It gives me great pleasure to be here tonight to inaugurate the branch of the National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) in Jeddah, a city which has long been known for embracing the business sector due to its closeness to the sacred places and its unique location on the Red Sea. The commencement of NBK of its banking operations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia marks further consolidation of cordial relations between the two brotherly countries (Saudi Arabia and Kuwait). This is one of the fruits of mutual Gulf work which the leaderships of the two countries are keen to enhance. Dear Brothers, The inauguration of NBK branch comes at a time when the Kingdom is witnessing robust economic performance. In 2005, the Saudi economy grew in real terms by 6.5 percent; the private sector registered a real growth of 6.6 percent. What is reassuring is that the private sector has become the main impetus of the Saudi economy. Its average growth rate for the past years stood at 5.3 percent.

This is an incarnation of the wise measures adopted by the government under the leadership of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques to carry out more structural reforms (institutional and regulatory) which we have begun to feel their positive effects in all aspects of economy. It will be appropriate here to say a few words about the dynamic and crucial role played by the banking sector in the Kingdom, which is manifested in the substantial increase in the credit extended to the private sector which grew by 29 percent annually during 2003 – 2005; and it amounted to Rls 436 billion at the end of 2005. As a result of the expansion in banking business, the assets of the banking sector increased by 14.4 percent annually during the past three years (2003 – 2005). At the end of the first quarter of 2006, they stood at Rls 797.4 billion, constituting about 70 percent of the Kingdom’s economy. Deposits with the banking sector rose by 13.7 percent annually during the past three years, and they amounted to Rls 521.5 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2006. The positive indicators of the banking sector which rest on the robust fundamentals of the Saudi economy have prepared an appropriate environment for banks to adapt to successive, regional and international changes during the previous period. Banks operating in the Kingdom have been able to overcome the crises that hit other economies, and have been able to benefit from banks’ experiences and modern banking technology.
Eva Srejber: Greater budgetary discipline in the EU through transparency and national ownership Speech by Ms Eva Srejber, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a breakfast seminar organised by Ernst & Young, Stockholm, 26 September 2006. *  *  *  Fiscal and monetary policy are interdependent. A government needs transparent and consistent monetary policy to know how to conduct fiscal policy. Similarly, no monetary policy will be sustainable if there is a rapid accumulation of debt. This is what Sweden witnessed in the 1980s and the early 1990s. An unsustainable mix of fixed exchange rates and lax fiscal policy, which led to high inflation and eventually to a crisis that landed us with an even higher mountain of debt. When the regime collapsed, General Council decided that the Riksbank should work towards a direct inflation target. The Riksbank determined that the target would be two per cent. Today this policy is hailed as a success. However, the real breakthrough for the new regime was in the mid-1990s when a forceful implementation of fiscal consolidation, supported by a broad political majority in parliament, made the macroeconomic set-up as a whole credible. It was only then that inflation expectations among the public finally fell to the target of 2 per cent, and interest rate spreads against Germany were reduced substantially. This fiscal tightening could in turn be based on the predictability of the new monetary regime with a clear inflation target. And the tighter fiscal policy would eventually allow less restrictive monetary policy.

Bank deposits refer to money that is issued by, and is a claim on private banks. Each time a bank extends credit, new money is created. Bank deposits now account for 98 percent of the broad money supply (M3). The increasing use of new payment methods, such as mobile payment solutions, suggests that this percentage will continue to rise. We have to ask ourselves: should we allow private solutions to compete freely in developing means of payment, or must the authorities play a role? The crucial factor is whether solutions based on private money deliver the characteristics the payment system should have. The system must be able to channel payments swiftly, safely, at low cost and in a user-friendly manner. The means of payment itself – our money – must be universal, because money is only useful if it is widely used. This requires trust. Deposit guarantee schemes and banking regulation promote trust in banks’ deposit money. Trust is also underpinned by being able to convert to another secure alternative, ie cash. Norges Bank assists private operators in implementing faster and safer payments. We cooperate with other authorities to oversee and supervise the payment infrastructure to ensure robustness and efficiency. Privacy rules prevent unauthorised access to payment information. But there are some characteristics deposit money lacks. Nor is direct and immediate settlement between two parties, without the involvement of a third party, possible without cash. The system is vulnerable to advanced attacks.
We have worked closely with our colleagues in the International Accounting Standards Board to avoid conflicts between Pillar 3 and the broader accounting standards. In fact, the Committee views Pillar 3 as a further refinement of the accounting standards that apply to banks’ specific exposures. Because we recognise that we have much to do in this area, we will continue to monitor accounting and market developments in the light of Pillar 3. Our dialogue with accounting standards-setting bodies and the accounting profession will continue to grow in the years to come. Conclusion: Basel Committee & the Global Research Community I hope that this conference will help to identify the policy options that supervisors have in order to address emerging issues in risk management, financial reporting, and transparency so that we can work toward a more stable banking system. We can expect the financial services industry to quantify new aspects of risk while refining the existing measurement and management techniques. Innovation and advances in the banking industry’s quantitative tools will open up many new areas for us to study that may enhance our ability to interpret financial information, to aggregate and report data, and to leverage the power of markets to motivate responsible business behaviour. On that note, on behalf of the Basel Committee, I would like to thank the research community in member agencies, in academic circles, and in the industry for your contributions to our work.

Transparency may be reduced if it is unclear why supervisors set certain requirements for one bank, and a different requirement for another. Allowing a discretionary approach in the absence of the other pillars also makes it difficult to ensure a level playing field, since banks would not necessarily be held to the same standards. That would certainly harm competitiveness across jurisdictions, and possibly even within the same jurisdiction. So the third pillar, market discipline, adds greater transparency. When a bank discloses information that offers meaningful insight into its risk positions and exposures, marketplace participants can better assess the financial health of the institution. They can then provide economic incentives for banks to strengthen their management of risk and hold realistic levels of capital against their risks. One might say that Basel II seeks an “efficient frontier” of policy objectives through the three pillars. Each pillar provides something that the other two cannot, and each is essential to achieving our overall objective of financial stability. I realise that this analogy of the three pillars as a portfolio of policy options is an oversimplification. But it helps us visualise why we think that the most “efficient frontier” involves a mixture of minimum rules, tempered by supervisory discretion, and supplemented by market-based incentives. IV. Consistency of accounting standards and Basel II  Of course, it would be impossible to improve transparency and promote stability without examining the mechanics that define how financial data are recorded and reported.
But the krona fluctuates sooner than the time it takes to revise our forecast, as is clear from what has happened. In the discussion that followed the publication of the Inflation Report it has been suggested that the Riksbank has lost faith in the krona. I think that’s overdoing it. And regardless of the forecast we presented, I see no strong reasons for altering the appraisal of what is a reasonable fundamental exchange rate in the long run, any more than there were grounds for revising the basic principles for share valuation just because stock markets had shot up to record levels a couple of years ago. That does not mean that some time in the future there could be a case for a different opinion about the exchange rate’s reasonable level in relation to the real economy. But that would stem in turn from an altered view of Sweden’s relative production potential, terms of trade or some other fundamental variable. In this context it should be borne in mind that an unduly weak exchange rate generates effects that should favour an appreciation further ahead: the balance of trade continues to be strong, corporate profits become higher than elsewhere, making Swedish shares more attractive, and so on. Calculations of the krona’s fundamental value will no doubt become topical at the latest if Sweden is to adopt the euro and we require a picture of the exchange rate that will be serviceable in the longer run.

Miroslav Singer: The role of creditors and debtors in the world economy Speech by Mr Miroslav Singer, Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the World Banking and Finance Summit 2012, Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), London, 26 June 2012. *  *  *  1. First, let me apologize for not being an eloquent academician addressing world matters. I am a humble central banker from a small central bank in a far away country which some people know very little about. So, I fear I am not going to be a great substitute for the announced speaker. I understand that his speech was to have focused on how awful, extraordinary, and incredible it is that without German willingness to sponsor the solution to the eurozone crisis there is a strong chance that the financial crisis the eurozone faces will deepen even further. Not even daring to mimic, I will just raise few points and issues. Since I doubt I can add value with an analysis of Pacific trade and financial flow patterns carried out from the remote distance of Prague, I will ignore the global dimension of the current problems and instead focus on Europe. At the end, I will try to make up for this shortcoming with questions on global issues for the other panelists to elaborate on. 2. Now, let me give you a few facts about the Czech Republic:  a. It is a net creditor country in terms of its financial sector. b.
Jean-Claude Trichet: Towards a more integrated Europe – challenges ahead for the euro area and Central and Eastern Europe Address by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the National Bank of Poland’s conference “Towards a more integrated Europe – challenges ahead for the euro area and Central and Eastern Europe”, Warsaw, 21 October 2011. *  *  *  President of the Republic of Poland, President of the European Parliament, President of the National Bank of Poland, Ministers, Governors, Commissioner Rehn Distinguished guests, Ladies and gentlemen, Let me start by thanking my dear friend and colleague, President Belka, for inviting me to address such a distinguished audience today. Twenty years ago, the dissolution of the Soviet Union marked one of the most important events in European history – the final stage of the revolutions that began two years earlier in 1989; the end of communism in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe; and the beginning of their transition to democracy and market economies. It is also almost 20 years since the European Council met in the city of Maastricht in the Netherlands to agree on strengthening the pillars of the European Union (EU) and laying the foundations for the transition to Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The changes that Europe has seen over the last two decades have been enormous Right from the start, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe embarked on a hugely ambitious path of reform.

Many observers feared then that, if the crisis were allowed to run its course, it could be near catastrophic for the region and extremely dangerous for the European banking system. But I am pleased to say that this potential “catastrophe” was avoided and I would like to devote my remaining time to the question of how this was done – the third aspect of the convergence process I previously mentioned. I believe answering this question may provide lessons for countries that are currently facing similar challenges in the euro area. 3. The reaction of CEE countries to the global financial crisis: what can be learnt? In my view, the return to the convergence path is being achieved thanks to a combination of four main elements. First and foremost, there are domestic policy actions to address macroeconomic imbalances at the national level. The precise policy actions differ across countries, reflecting the different country-specific challenges and policy frameworks in place. But the actions generally require a strong fiscal adjustment and/or measures to maintain confidence in the soundness of the financial sector. Second, the reaction of the international community has been essential. Where funding challenges became more acute, international financial assistance led by the IMF – jointly with the EU in EU Member States,– has been crucial in supporting market confidence and avoiding financial crises. The balance of payments support facility available for EU Member States has been reactivated, while the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank have supported several countries.
It aims to help people find out more about the notes and coins they use every day. On this occasion, though, there’s something new. The highlight today is the brand new ten euro note. It’s the first time it has been on public display since it was unveiled to the media just two days ago at the ECB in Frankfurt. That means you’ll be one of the first to see this new note before it starts circulating on 23 September this year. The new ten euro is part of what we call the Europa series of banknotes. It’s named after the figure from Greek mythology whose portrait is included in the hologram and the watermark on the notes. Take a closer look at those two security features in the exhibition, as well as the distinctive emerald number, which changes colour from green to deep blue when you tilt the note. They’re all examples of how we have used advanced technologies to make the notes even more secure. The security features will keep us well ahead of counterfeiters – and justify the confidence that the people of the euro area have in their money. There’s a lot more to be seen in this exhibition, which I hope you will all find as interesting and entertaining as I did. So without further ado, allow me to declare it open. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1

More recently, there has also been continuous innovation and an increasing number of issuances in foreign currency. As Malaysia offers international participation in our Islamic financial system, we offer to be an international gateway, particularly in strengthening the link between the two important dynamic growth regions of Asia and the Middle East. Malaysia will also continue to collaborate with other regulatory authorities to ensure financial stability in the Islamic financial system. This will be through our active involvement in the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB), the Islamic Financial Stability Forum (IFSF), the initiatives by the Islamic Development Bank (IDB), and finally in the newly formed International Islamic Liquidity Management Corporation (IILM). In the area of capacity building, Malaysia has also given priority to two areas: one is in human capital development and the second, in catalysing mutual recognition of Shariah  BIS Review 141/2010  1  interpretations. The International Centre of Education in Islamic finance (INCEIF) was established in 2006 for advanced education for practitioners in Islamic finance, and in 2008, the International Shariah Research Academy (ISRA) was established to conduct applied Shariah research on the contemporary Islamic finance issues and to provide a platform for active international engagement among Shariah scholars. Moving forward, Malaysia will continue its efforts in strengthening our international linkages in the global Islamic financial system through collaborative partnerships and cooperation with the objective of contributing towards greater international financial and economic integration. Let me conclude.
As we know from this recent crisis, incentives and a disproportionate focus on short term gains played a central role. This does not mean that we should put on hold initiatives that would promote a more competitive, efficient and sustainable insurance sector. But it does mean that we need to ensure that we have sufficient confidence in the system of checks and balances that exist to safeguard the interests of financial consumers and the long term viability of the industry. Corporate governance is clearly an essential part of that system of checks and balances. As the Government embarks on the Economic Transformation Programme, demand will increase for new and innovative solutions for investment, protection and risk diversification. As presented in the Bank’s Financial Sector Blueprint, expectations are for the insurance industry to be able to deliver a wider range of insurance products that include medical and  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  health insurance, risk protection offerings for small and medium businesses as well as products supporting the global expansion of Malaysian businesses. Stronger insurance companies are also expected to expand beyond our domestic shores. These developments present tremendous opportunities, but also new risks that must be managed. As individual insurers chart their own paths in this landscape, strong governance systems will assume greater importance to keep business standards in check and to guard against actions that would put the long term interests of the company at risk.

Jessica Chew Cheng Lian: Corporate governance at the Central Bank of Malaysia Opening speech by Ms Jessica Chew Cheng Lian, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Third Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia-The Malaysian Institute of Certified Public Accountants (ICAA-MICPA) Audit Forum, Kuala Lumpur, 27 September 2012. *  *  *  It gives me great pleasure to be here this morning at the 3rd ICAA-MICPA Audit Forum. The theme for the Forum this year is the role of the audit committee within the context of corporate governance in insurance companies. It has been said that an audit committee is like a good insurance policy - it is better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it. I am certainly happy to know that we have established strong audit committee practice within our financial industry, and while admittedly, some institutions have moved further than others in improving the effectiveness of the audit committee, it represents without exception a core pillar of governance systems in our financial sector. I say this because as we speak, there are countries that are now debating the requirement for financial institutions to establish separate audit committees. There are a number of reasons why the theme chosen for this forum is particularly relevant in current times. Corporate governance problems have once again come under intense global scrutiny since the outbreak of the global financial crisis.