samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
These currencies might seem insignificant, but they have already been used as means of payment outside their own platforms. A number of private digital currencies have also appeared. Some have gained ground in terms of turnover and use, while others were introduced for purely fraudulent purposes and have rapidly disappeared. The largest and best-known digital currency is Bitcoin, which was launched in 2009. Bitcoin has been the subject of widespread debate, but still has only a minor role in the payment system. Payment by Bitcoin is costly, and the system’s capacity is limited. Bitcoin prices have been highly volatile. A characteristic of private currencies such as bitcoin is the absence of any central institution backing the currency. But this is also a problem, making it difficult to establish the trust necessary for a widespread adoption of these currencies. Cybercrime New technology and new forms of payment are raising fundamental questions related to the security of the payment system. Cybercrime is evolving rapidly, with cyberattacks becoming increasingly advanced and well-organised. 5/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  Central banks are also targeted. In February last year, an attempt was made to steal USD 950 million from the central bank of Bangladesh. Most of the payments were stopped, but in the course of 48 hours, USD 81 million had found its way to a bank in the Philippines. A few days later, more than USD 60 million had disappeared through Philippine casinos. As far as I know, the money trail stopped there.

There's no use in complaining about "populism", which incidentally is a label that is too easily used, if we can't provide the "people" with the ability to ask the right questions and then evaluate the answers. France has therefore made a firm commitment to implement a strategy for financial education based on the principles set out by the OECD and endorsed by the G20 leaders. Work on the strategy began in 2013 and on 20 December of last year, the Minister of the Economy called the first meeting of the National Committee for Financial Education. This Committee brings together relevant administrations and institutions, consumer associations and finance sector professionals, and gives the political impetus at the very highest level. The Minister also reaffirmed the role entrusted to the Banque de France of conducting the national strategy. Before continuing with a presentation of our first collective achievements, I would like to focus on the role of the Banque de France. ***  1. The Banque de France, the conductor of the national strategy [slide 4] The Banque de France has concrete, everyday experience of our fellow citizens' needs in terms of information and explanations through its three core tasks of monetary strategy, financial stability and services to the economy. For example, as part of the over-indebtedness procedure managed by the Banque de France, each year we provide solutions to more than 200,000 households experiencing financial difficulties.
2  Normally, the reserve rate acts as a floor and the overnight lending rate as a ceiling for the overnight interbank rate, as banks will not normally lend reserves at an interest rate that is lower than the rate they receive from the central bank or borrow reserves at an interest rate that is higher than the rate they have to pay the central bank. There may be a stigma attached to using this lending facility. When this stigma cost is high, the market rate may exceed Norges Bank’s overnight lending rate. If one or more banks do not have access to the central bank’s deposit facility, the market rate may fall below the reserve rate. 3  Competition among banks keeps the overnight interbank rate close to the key policy rate. A bank holding reserves in excess of its quota towards the end of the day can avoid having to deposit these excess reserves at the reserve rate by lending in the interbank market to a bank with room on its quota. This bank will be able to deposit the borrowed reserves at the key policy rate and earn an interest rate margin as long as the borrowing rate is lower than the key policy rate. Competition among banks with room on their quotas pushes up borrowing rates and pushes down interest rate margins. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  the level of short-term money market rates. This also applies when the reserve rate is negative.

The third segment is better detection of economy sensitivity to shocks, which is achieved by establishing sector accounts, and in their frames financial accounts, which will disclose the links between all sectors in an economy, and therefore, the possibilities for shock spillover from one sector to another. In 2017, for the first time, the National Bank prepared financial accounts for all sectors of the economy, which were submitted to Eurostat in an experimental format. The fourth segment is the improvement of the statistical communication process. In this context, on a regular basis, we are making efforts to improve communication with the public, also by conducting surveys for the satisfaction of the reporters and users, creating the possibility for direct electronic communication on all issues related to statistics and undertaking financial education activities. In 2016, we started with a regular publication of press releases on statistics, as well as a project, which is in the final phase, for establishing a statistical internet portal for external data users. In doing so, in the basis of all these new statistical requirements, lies the need for providing granular, rather than aggregate data. The crisis has not called into question the traditional aggregate economic statistics, but has shown that it is not enough.
So the question then is – should Islamic banking be the conduit for this sort of financing model? When the business climate is good then the answer is yes – but in an environment where certain sectors decline significantly such as the property market, it could adversely  4  BIS Review 49/2010  impact Islamic finance institutions, that could that suddenly finds itself saddled with assets that it cannot sell. There are ways to minimize such inventory risk – but we are making a big assumption here that ALL Islamic banks will behave rationally at all times. Although clearly Mudharaba and Musharaka should be in the Islamic Bank’s toolbox, in taking a wholesale view to move towards asset based financing – it is imperative to look at the overall implication of such a shift. For the purpose of discussion, let’s consider for the moment that the entire economy is premised on asset based financing. We must ask ourselves, in that scenario – would a financial system purely based on profit from equity based financing be necessarily more efficient than one based on asset financing or debt? Does it benefit the entire Ummah? Consider this possibility – who would have better information on business climate – the Entrepreneur, the Bank or the Client? Remember the asymmetry of information? A shift from the debt based financing to equity based financial system does not, necessarily lead to a better equitable outcome to society; instead, if not properly implemented it could cause uneven benefits to various stakeholders.

In general terms, the CCyB would be activated and increased by authorities whenever aggregate credit growth was judged to be excessive and associated with a build-up of system-wide risk. The buffer can be reduced during a downturn to help ensure that banks maintain the flow of credit in the economy. Considering that this is a new macroprudential tool, the evidence of implementations is still limited. Notwithstanding that, the number of countries that have developed a policy framework is increasing and the number of jurisdictions that have set a positive buffer level increased significantly over recent years. Until now, around forty countries have been using the CCyB, with heterogeneous effects depending on their local conditions and vulnerabilities. Furthermore, during the Covid-19 crisis, many countries released their countercyclical capital buffers, marking the first time that the CCyB was used widely in a downturn. Among them we can mention France, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland and United Kingdom (BIS, October 2022). These countries lowered the CCyB either completely or partially. Recent reports from the Basel Committee are also focused on providing empirical evidence regarding buffer usability and cyclicality of the framework. So far, the evidence gathered suggests that although the countercyclical capital buffer may be less effective to contain the build- up phase of the credit cycle. However, it may help to strengthen  1/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  banks' solvency and mitigate the risk that banks' lending standards amplify an economic downturn as well as all the spillovers implied.
Another benefit that this initiative entailed, was that it paved the way for several banks and corporates to also issue international bonds, thereby accessing savings from outside the country. By doing that, we had also been able to bridge the chronic savings/investment gap that has been regularly referred to by a never ending stream of experts since independence, as a major deficiency that was hampering growth in our economy. Case Study 3: Intervention to stabilize a systemically important bank The third case study that I would like to illustrate is the instance where the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance teamed up to stabilize a systemically important bank that was facing a liquidity crisis in late 2008/early 2009. Mr. Chairman, If we take our minds back to that period, in late 2008, we would recollect that the external environment, internationally and locally, had become even more hostile and highly uncertain. Internationally, the global financial crisis had taken a major toll, with hundreds of banks collapsing across the world. Each day, we were hearing about the collapse or the imminent failure of many big names in the global financial landscape. In many countries, the Ministers of Finance and the Governors of the Central Banks were huddled in endless discussions as to what should be done to arrest the crises, or how to stop the bleeding. Businesses were going bankrupt by the thousands. Business confidence level was at rock bottom. People in all parts of the world were in panic.

Reduced precipitation is causing aridification in parts of North America, with the Corn Belt shifting northward. Floods and droughts of increasing frequency and intensity could cause not just disruptions in food supply but potentially also a permanent reduction in agricultural yields, with worrying implications for food price inflation. The era of cheap money, cheap labour, and cheap energy is most likely over. This is unhelpful for global inflation but not necessarily bad from a broader perspective. There has been too much borrowing, too much inequality, and too much carbon emission globally. With inflation likely to be higher than before, global interest rates are not going back to the zero lower bound. Borrowing costs that are more reflective of time horizons and risk premiums will perhaps help to reduce debt and leverage in the system. With declining labour force growth in many parts of the world, we can no longer rely on cheap labour to power our economy and society. But hopefully it will help to lift wages at the lower end of the spectrum and reduce inequality. With the cost of energy likely to go up as the world progressively switches to cleaner energy, it will help reduce carbon emissions, cap global warming, and avoid catastrophic climate change. HOW WILL GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS IMPACT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY? Geopolitical tensions are likely to lead to greater decoupling in the global economy.
Dimitar Bogov: Seventy years of central banking activities in the Republic of Macedonia Speech by Mr Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the ceremony of marking 70 years of central banking activities in the Republic of Macedonia and order award by his excellency Dr Gjorge Ivanov, President of the Republic of Macedonia, Skopje, 19 October 2016. * * * Honorable President of the Republic of Macedonia, Your Excellency, Dr. Gjorge Ivanov, Distinguished Members of Parliament and representatives of the Government, Honored Excellencies, Esteemed guests, ladies and gentlemen, It is my pleasure and honor, on behalf of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia and on my own behalf, to express my sincere gratitude to His Excellency, the President Dr. Gjorge Ivanov for the high recognition he has awarded to the National Bank tonight. I would also like to thank all of you for being present at the celebration that marks this great anniversary. It is a great honor to be awarded the “Order of Merits for Macedonia” by the head of state, in the year when the National Bank celebrates 70 years of central banking activities in the Republic of Macedonia. This award is a great recognition for the overall work of the National Bank. It is strong confirmation of the enormous contribution of the Bank to the state all these decades – as a central institution of the monetary system and a key pillar of macroeconomic stability.

These 70 years, the National Bank has gone through various stages of transformation and evolutionary development. It has operated in various systems of social and political order. Over the years, it changed both its name and address. It has gradually acquired competencies and built its functions. With the constitution of independent Macedonia and the declaration of monetary autonomy, it established itself as an institution – carrier of the functions of a modern central bank. Today, I can proudly say that the National Bank has grown into a modern and highly professional institution, enjoying credibility domestically, and appreciated and recognized internationally. The National Bank has been maintaining price stability in the Macedonian economy for 20 years through a stable exchange rate. The inflation rate in the past 20 years has averaged about 2%, which is a level comparable to developed countries, placing us among the most successful economies in transition. The financial stability has been successfully maintained by promoting sound, safe and competitive banking sector that successfully defy risks and delivers robust credit growth. By achieving these two legally delegated objectives, the National Bank creates the best conditions for sustainable economic growth and therewith, serve the well-being of the Macedonian society. Yet, besides its primary activity, the National Bank has vigorously built capacities in other areas.
We have chosen to use fundamental analysis as a basis but to also weigh in as far as possible the effects of other factors. This means that our assessments assume that the krona will appreciate in the long term, which it has so far stubbornly refused to do. Nevertheless, the consequences of these “misforecasts” have not been so great. During the period we have had a floating exchange rate, fluctuations in the krona rate have not had as large an impact on inflation as before, which we have taken into account when making inflation assessment. This means that monetary policy has not been affected to any great extent by the fact that the krona has not developed as expected. What does the future hold in store? The prospects for the US economy played a decisive role in the assessment of Swedish growth and inflation even before the terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. One important factor was whether there was actually grounds for the optimistic expectations of future growth that characterised the economy and that had previously pushed up investment and share prices. Was the economic downturn in the shape of a V, i.e. would it soon be over? There can scarcely be any doubt that developments in information technology had created and are still creating growth potential that is far from exhausted. Or would it take longer time to grow into the overinvestment that occurred when the “new economy” appeared to be a fact, i.e.

It is difficult in the present situation to assess the collective consequences for the international economy and thus inflation prospects in Sweden over the next few years. There is a risk that confidence in the future will decline in both the corporate sector and the household sector, which could result in a deeper and more prolonged economic slowdown. This would indicate that inflation two years’ ahead, with an unchanged repo rate, would be lower than the Riksbank’s target. The shape taken by future developments will depend partly on the economic policy measures taken now.” Despite this gloomy statement, there is no cause for despair. The US economy is basically strong with a high potential growth. Some increase in household saving is needed to reduce the burden of debt  4  BIS Review 79/2001  and the deficit on the current account. And of course the dollar appears to be rather overvalued. The Swedish economy is also in good condition, with low unemployment, a surplus on the current account, a declining central government debt and low inflation. The conditions for coping with an economic downturn are good, even if the downturn proves more prolonged than we believed in the spring. Thank you for listening. BIS Review 79/2001  5
As the furlough scheme tapers from August, however, there is a risk this greater number of furloughed workers are not hired back by employers, adding to the unemployment pool. The May MPR scenario had unemployment rising to 9%, but assumed the risk of workers not being re-hired was small. Recent survey evidence, from both households and companies, suggests this risk could be larger. For example, survey evidence of companies by the DMP suggests private sector employment could be almost 10% lower by the end of 2020, implying an unemployment path somewhat higher than in the May MPR scenario. If unemployment was to rise more than expected, it increases the risk of a negative feedback loop. Joblessness, or fears of it, have historically been a key driver of household savings. Higher unemployment, as well as lowering incomes, could cause households to increase precautionary savings. That higher saving would lower demand and negatively affect company revenues and employment, in a vicious cycle. John Maynard Keynes described this dynamic in the 1930s as the “paradox of thrift”.13 A paradox because prudent decisions by households, given the risks they face, have the perverse collective consequence of increasing risks to the economy and those same individuals. These dynamics might be particularly potent at  12  Cumulative loss calculated as the percentage difference in the four-quarter sum of quarterly GDP at the Year 1, 2 and 3 points of the January MPR, summed together. 13 Keynes (1936) described this pattern and Samuelson (1948) used the term ‘paradox of thrift’.

12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  12  present because households face double jeopardy – risks to their lives and their livelihoods. Elsewhere, I have called this dread risk.14 At present, dread is double-barrelled. Yet this is not the only path possible for the economy. The willingness of companies to take back furloughed workers will depend importantly on their expectations about future demand for their goods and services. The stronger those expectations, the lower the likelihood of job losses. Firms will not make workers redundant if they need to rehire them, at a cost, soon afterwards. This lowers unemployment risk, raises household incomes, confidence and spending and thereby boosts firm revenues and employment, in a virtuous cycle. Back in the 1950s John Hicks called this dynamic a “super-multiplier” – “super” because the cumulative effects are amplified when emerging from recession.15 There is survey evidence to support this dynamic. The British Chambers of Commerce’s (BCC) weekly survey suggests firms’ demand and employment intentions have moved upwards in lockstep since April (Chart 11). Indeed, employment was close to balance by mid-May. Surveys of employment intentions and vacancies have also recently recovered from low levels. Chart 11: BCC survey Balance 60 Composite output 40 20 0 Reported employment  -20 -40 -60 -80 -100  2007  2009  2011  2013  2015  2017  2019  Sources: BCC and Bank calculations. Notes: Chart shows BCC Quarterly Survey and dashed lines show more recent weekly survey after Covid-19 crisis began.
The target range for our reference interest rate, the three-month Libor for Swiss franc investments, thus remained unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%, and we confirmed the interest rate on sight deposits at the SNB of –0.75%. We also reaffirmed our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary. The SNB’s policy of negative interest and foreign exchange market interventions – measures that are intended to relieve upward pressure on the Swiss franc – is helping to stabilise price developments and 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  support economic activity in our country. The SNB thus continues to take account of the exchange rate situation in formulating its monetary policy. Conclusion The SNB – like the ECB and many other central banks – has been deploying unconventional monetary policy measures in recent years. These were prompted by the financial and debt crisis, which caused the central banks to reduce short-term interest rates to near zero and significantly expand the monetary base. In Switzerland, the crisis led to a very substantial appreciation in the Swiss franc, particularly against the euro. The SNB thus took targeted unconventional measures to ease upward pressure on the Swiss franc. Between September 2011 and January 2015, it maintained a minimum exchange rate against the euro. Since the discontinuation of this measure, monetary policy has been based on negative interest and the willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market. Logically and quite rightly, the central banks were major economic protagonists during the financial and debt crisis.

As Iceland's growth period progressed, symptoms emerged of the economic overheating which has been one of the main concerns of the Central Bank in the implementation of monetary policy in recent years. For the Icelandic economy, the period from 1990-1995 was one of stagnation, apart from 1994 when growth shot up to 4.5%, only to fall back to virtually zero the following year. In 1996, however, the growth phase began which we have been enjoying ever since. Over this period, the entire output gap that was present then was closed, and more besides. National expenditure has been growing at a faster rate than national income, resulting in a large current account deficit. National expenditure rose by more in 2000 than the preceding year, so the current account continued to widen. GDP growth was less than the year before, although it did not slow down sufficiently to ease output pressure. In all likelihood, the overheating that has characterised the Icelandic economy in recent years peaked in 2000, since there were indications of a slowdown in domestic demand growth in the course of the year, although it remained very strong. The outlook is for a substantial reduction in the rate of economic growth in 2001. Clear signs of overheating were seen in the labour market. Seasonally adjusted unemployment decreased from 1.5% in January 2000 to 1.2% in July, then remained unchanged to the end of the year.