samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This would subdue growth in Sweden, which has around 40 per cent of its exports to the euro countries. Conclusions and ways forward It would be wrong to say that globalisation is a force of nature that cannot be stopped. However, it would be very costly for an individual country or region to try to remain outside of this process. This alternative does not really exist in practice. That applies in particular to a country like Sweden, which is small and strongly dependent on foreign trade, and integrated with the outside world. At the same time, globalisation brings new demands and challenges. Many of these require global or regional solutions. There are thus two additional paths to take: One is that society and the business sector try to manage the changed conditions that globalisation involves in the best way possible, and one is that Sweden together with other countries/organisations actively works to promote regulatory systems,  6  BIS Review 35/2006  infrastructures, foreign aid and cooperation in the fields that require widespread support. This applies in particular to the global imbalances I have described here. Mobilisation of resources In the domestic field, the challenge for Sweden in future is to develop and renew the business sector so that we can meet the increasingly stiff competition. The general government and local governments will probably be unable to create very many new jobs; Sweden’s demographic situation means that taxes will be used to maintain the level of service and transfers that already exists.

What the public sector can do, is to create good conditions for innovation, entrepreneurship and an efficient labour market. In an open world economy, it is not only companies that compete with one another; places, regions and countries all compete to attract labour, top competence and investment capital. Growth is a necessary condition for increasing welfare and it is only more work and better use of time/working hours (productivity) that create growth. Research and development, investment in innovations and increased efficiency that liberate resources for more productive purposes are a necessary condition for production to be able to manage to increase in value and to survive in competition with ‘low-cost’ countries. However, not everyone will be able to, or need to, work in branches exposed to competition. Large areas of private consumption, notably education, healthcare, care services, personal services, trade in non-durable goods, etc. benefit from local anchorage. Many of the new jobs will in future be in this field. Creating good conditions for the growth of the service companies is therefore an important element of a policy to manage the challenges of globalisation. Mobilisation of resources and the promotion of creativity usually assume cooperation between different interests, within politics, the business sector and academia. Sweden has well-developed traditions to build on, this applies in particular to the local and regional work on developing the business sector.
To solve the problems, the alternative to winding up the bank and selling the assets is to convert the bank into a public limited company. We saw some examples of this, too, in the Swedish crisis, where some savings banks and other cooperative financial institutions had to be restructured. Accounting issues need to be sorted out When one gets to the point where the government takes control, there are also more practical problems to deal with. This is a stage where the assets must be inventoried and where bad loans may need to be transferred to special asset management companies. One important aspect with regard to the feasibility of a quick and efficient solution is therefore the existence of clear regulations for evaluating assets and liabilities in a situation where the government intervenes. One particular question is how to deal with a situation where the government provides support for existing operations, for instance by injecting capital or providing a guarantee. The purpose of the intervention is to save the functions and not the bank as such. However, this action can have a positive effect on the value of the bank. In principle, it is reasonable that the value should reflect the value of the operations without reference to potential government support measures. Additional legal issues So if all this has been put in place, is one home and dry? At the national level, yes. On condition of course that a number of basic conditions are met.

* * * These questions aside, one thing is clear in the case of France – and 2016’s too-feeble growth of 1.1%, as published yesterday, confirms it: estimates from national and international institutions all point to low levels of potential growth, at around 1.2%, and relatively high levels of structural unemployment (the equivalent of the NAIRU in English-speaking countries), at around 9%. Clearly, we cannot be content with these levels. All of which brings us back, overwhelmingly, to our four key focuses for reform: Enterprise, Education, Employment and Expenditure reduction (public sector). Our northern European neighbours have shown by example that these reforms 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  are not incompatible with our shared European social model. Studies by the Banque de France show in particular that reforms to the goods and services market could boost the productivity of the French economy by between 3% and 5% in the long-term. Without further ado then, let me pass the floor to Fabrice Lenglart, and I wish you all a fruitful and enjoyable conference. 1 www.banque-france.fr/en/secular-stagnation-and-growth-measurement-conference-organised-banque-de-  france-and-college-de  3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
The economic climate has improved in the US and Asia and the Swedish labour market is showing clear signs of a recovery – not least statistics from staffing companies are pointing to a pick-up in demand for labour. Another reason is that an interest rate rise would reduce the risk of the krona weakening further as monetary policy in other countries gradually becomes less and less expansionary. The interest rate differential in relation to the euro area and the US seems recently to have had great significance for developments in the krona exchange rate. A third reason – perhaps the most important – has to do with what I have spoken about here today. My assessment is that house prices and household debt may very well have reached levels at which there is a risk of there arising a self-reinforcing negative spiral with falling house prices and weak demand growth when the business cycle eventually turns down. Even if it were not – as I already pointed out – a case of a correction of an overvalued market, such an adjustment could be comparatively abrupt. In my opinion, an earlier initiated and more gradual raising of interest rates would increase the chances of a more orderly slowdown in the rate of price increases, in roughly the same way as in the UK and Australia.

House prices and financial stability Households have been increasing their borrowing at a rapid rate for a fairly long time now. The rise in household debt has been accompanied by a fast upswing in prices in the house market. There have been no clear signs to date that this development has begun to moderate in earnest. In all likelihood, there is a limit to how long it can continue. The Riksbank’s assessment is also that the rate of increase will slow down in the coming years as interest rates rise. Developments in the property market, chiefly as regards commercial properties but also housing, play an important part in the Riksbank’s analysis of factors that affect the stability of the financial system. A central question when judging whether house price developments have the potential to pose a threat to financial stability is the extent to which they can be assumed to be driven by exaggerated optimism and speculation. If such driving forces are significant then there is a risk that households could have difficulty meeting their interest payments when interest rates rise; further, the downward adjustment in prices could be very dramatic when the lack of realism in estimates finally becomes evident. The combination of households’ payment difficulties and sharp falls in collateral values could potentially cause problems for the banks. However, this is unlikely to happen in Sweden for several reasons.
As a pioneer in the global sukuk market, Malaysia has remained firmly established as one of the largest issuers of sukuk, with 62 percent of the world's outstanding sukuk having originated in Malaysia. Malaysia's lead is also reflected in the innovative and competitive structures that have been pioneered such as the exchangeable sukuk musharakah and sukuks based on istisna' and ijarah. All these augurs well for Malaysia to evolve as an International Islamic financial hub and as a centre of sukuk origination. BIS Review 27/2009  1  Riding through the global financial market uncertainties The enhanced resilience of our financial system during this challenging international financial environment can be attributed to the comprehensive reform measures undertaken over this decade which has contributed to reduce the impact of the global financial crisis on our financial system and our economy. The domestic financial markets have remained orderly despite experiencing greater volatility, higher outflows and lower trading volume at the height of the crisis. The financial sector has also remained solid and has continued its intermediation function without disruption throughout this period. A number of pre-emptive measures has also been initiated to ensure continued access to the bond market for funding. This includes the establishment of Danajamin Nasional Berhad, a national financial guarantee insurer to provide credit enhancement for viable corporations to raise financing from the bond market. This initiative is expected to enhance the prospects for companies to tap the bond market.

Moreover, better supervisory oversight would also give us the agility to mitigate emerging risks before they materialize. Having said that, it must be acknowledged that we can’t regulate every aspect of the banking system. Ultimately, banks should assume prime responsibility for their actions and behaviors. Being dependent on public confidence, banks can ill afford to operate with weak corporate governance 4  or poor risk culture. This necessitates that banks maintain robust corporate governance standards, duly supported by strong internal controls, and prudent risk management. We are fully cognizant that these regulatory measures are costly for banks; nonetheless, costs of any financial crisis, both in financial and social terms, are far more substantial. Therefore, it is only wise and rational to strengthen the capacity of our banks in benign times. I believe our proactive approach has actually paid off, as banks in our region generally entered the low oil price environment from a position of strength. Yet banks’ resilience is not infinite and may come under severe pressure if necessary economic and structural reforms are dropped - or even delayed. Hence, we should not lose sight of the broader economic context in which our financial systems operate. After all, the banking sector is just a component of the overall economic landscape, though a very crucial one. While ensuring banking stability is critical, it is only a necessary condition for overall economic stability – and not a sufficient one.
The latest data have not invalidated the outlook for gradual recovery of inflation reflected in the most recent forecasts. Budgetary policy in 2016 As I have said in previous appearances before the Senate, the primary objective of budgetary policy is to ensure that the recovery is underpinned by lasting stability. In particular, it is indispensable to persevere with the strategy of fiscal consolidation leading to the stabilisation and subsequent reduction of the public debt ratio. The improvement in the cyclical conditions envisaged in the macroeconomic scenario used to prepare the draft Budget has a positive effect on public finances owing to increased tax collection, a further drop in unemployment benefits and a progressive reduction of the average interest rates paid on public debt. All this means that the budgetary policy measures to meet the budget deficit targets are less costly. Specifically, the draft State budget envisages economic growth of 3.0% for 2016, slightly below the 3.3% projected for 2015, with growth of domestic demand and a progressive recovery of inflation rates which would lead to an increase in nominal GDP of nearly 4%. Against this background, the overall general government deficit for the coming year will foreseeably stand below 3%, the ceiling established in the Stability and Growth Pact, while the public debt/GDP ratio will decrease for the first time since 2007. The State and Social Security budget under discussion here is the first element of this budgetary strategy. However, a few days ago the general government budget plan for 2016 was released.

The main changes in the State and Social Security Budget for 2016 are, on the revenue side, the application of the second phase of the tax reform designed in 2014 and, on the expenditure side, still in the context of observing the spending ceiling, certain expansionary measures such as the approval of a wage increase of 1% for public employees, payment of the second part of the salary payment eliminated in 2012, and the general increase in the average staff replacement rate to 50%. The 2016 Budget Plan presents an estimate of the impact of these measures on regional and local governments, which are the levels of government that manage the most labour-intensive public services. Noteworthy in the area of Social Security is the revaluation of pensions by 0.25%, in accordance with the application of the new revaluation index. In light of the macroeconomic developments envisaged and the above-mentioned measures, the 2016 Budget Plan anticipates growth of around 4.5% in overall general government revenue, which is slightly higher than projected nominal GDP. This would take the public revenue/GDP ratio to 38% in 2016, compared with 37.8% estimated for 2015. On the expenditure side, the State spending ceiling, the improvement in the economic situation and the application of the above-mentioned measures to overall general government would – according to the estimations of the 2016 Budget Plan – give rise to a decrease of 1.4 pp in the public expenditure/GDP ratio.
Apart from some temporary, technical factors that may together account for 3-4 tenths of a percentage point, three main factors have contributed to explaining the substantial deviation from the inflation target: •  First, the global downturn had considerable implications for the impact of interest-rate setting in Norway, via the exchange rate and other channels. The strong krone contributed to low inflationary pressures. The depreciation in the krone exchange rate since January 2003 has  2  BIS Review 23/2004  not resulted in a significant rise in prices for imported consumer goods, as might have been expected. In recent months, however, there have been signs of higher prices for imported goods. Clothing prices in particular slowed in March. •  Second, low external inflation and rapid shifts in the international division of labour have resulted in a fall in prices for imported goods and services. This also applies when these prices are measured in terms of what Norwegian importers pay in foreign currency. •  The change in trade patterns has made a considerable contribution to the sharp decline in prices for clothing, footwear and audiovisual equipment. We have nonetheless observed that the fall in prices for clothing has been somewhat more subdued in Svalbard than on the mainland, partly due to the higher incidence of snowscooter apparel here. Rapid technological advances have also pushed down prices for audiovisual equipment. •  Third, competition has probably increased in retail trade and other service sectors in Norway in recent years.

Moreover, there now seems to be a tendency towards investing in property and taking up loans at a more mature age so that younger generations not only inherit dwellings, but debt as well. Both debt and wealth are on the rise for these more mature age groups. Sharp increases in asset prices and debt accumulation may pose a risk to economic stability. With a view to mitigating this risk, it will be appropriate in some situations to apply a somewhat longer time horizon than the usual two years to attain the inflation target. At present, however, debt accumulation is high only in the household sector. There is little borrowing activity in the enterprise sector. House prices are rising, but prices for office space are stable. Output and employment are at trend level. Unemployment is on a par with the average for the 1990s, wage growth is consistent with the inflation target, credit growth is close to long-term nominal GDP growth, relative labour costs and prices are approximately at the same level as the average for the past 30 years and the interest rate differential is close to zero. But inflation is low, as a result of the lagged effects of the strong krone, low import prices and high productivity growth. The analyses in the inflation report indicate that inflation will remain low this year, picking up thereafter. The krone depreciation since January 2003 is expected to push up prices for imported consumer goods.
2 [24]  𝑅𝑅𝑡𝑡 = 𝒓𝒓∗ + 2 + 𝛼𝛼(𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡 − 2) + 𝛽𝛽(𝑦𝑦𝑡𝑡 − 𝒚𝒚∗ ),  where 𝑅𝑅 denotes the policy rate, 𝒓𝒓∗ the long-term real interest rate, 2 is the central bank’s inflation target, 𝜋𝜋 the actual inflation rate, 𝑦𝑦 the actual resource utilisation and 𝒚𝒚∗ the long-term sustainable level for resource utilisation. The parameter α determines how strongly the policy rate reacts when inflation deviates from two per cent and 𝛽𝛽 how strongly the policy rate reacts when resource utilisation deviates from its long-term sustainable level. According to the Taylor rule, the development of the policy rate depends on three factors:  1. The sum of the long-term real interest rate and the inflation target of two per cent. 2. The deviation of inflation from the target of two per cent. 3. Resource utilisation's deviation from the long-term sustainable level for resource utilisation. The Taylor rule illustrates, in other words, how both the long-term real interest rate and resource utilisation’s long-term sustainable level have major significance for the level of the policy rate. What roles do 𝒓𝒓∗ and 𝒚𝒚∗ play for monetary policy? The long-term real interest rate plays an important role for the long-term level of the policy rate, which can also be illustrated by the Taylor rule.

Long-term real interest rate in Sweden and abroad 4  United States United Kingdom Euro area Sweden  3  4  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  96  00  04  08  12  16  -2  Note. Per cent. The long-term real interest rate is calculated as the HP trend (lambda = 1600) for the average of 1 month’s real interest rate between 5 years ahead and 10 years ahead (5y5y) adjusted for the forward premium. Sources: Own calculations, Macrobond, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  This means that on the one hand lower birth rates, as in China for instance, lead to the working age share of the population increasing and therefore to an increase in saving. On the other hand, a large share of old-age pensioners in the population leads to a decline in saving. But a larger proportion of old-age pensioners in the population also means that the supply of labour declines. This dampens the need for investment, that is, the demand for savings declines. Another effect of the ageing population is that the average life expectancy of the population increases. This means that the working age population need to save more to manage a longer period of time as old-age pensioners, which could be an important factor behind the increase in the willingness to save.
Moreover, when we decide to revise inherited EU standards, we must ensure that they meet our public policy objectives. Let me briefly give Solvency 2 as an example – no after dinner speech should contain anything more than the briefest description of Solvency 2. At the heart of the prudential regime for insurers in the UK are the objectives of safety and soundness and policyholder protection. How we put those objectives into practice should also encompass any macro-prudential measures that we consider appropriate. I do not for a moment consider that the Solvency 2 we transposed from EU law and regulation is best suited to the UK. Why would it be, since it was designed to cover 27 countries? The case for reform is clear. But, so is the need first to ensure we define and set our expectations on safety and soundness and policyholder protection. Then, consistent with these expectations we can look to enable more support from insurers for productive finance and infrastructure investment etc., that way we can ensure a resilient approach to the prudential regulation of insurers and so stability in the supply of finance. Resilience is also highly relevant to the international financial system and the approach to international regulatory standards. I want to finish by commenting briefly on one aspect of this. In my view resilience is best achieved and maintained through an open and well-governed international financial system. We came to a key moment in time on this issue during the global financial crisis.

This means that banks are able to lend through severe economic downturns, insurers can maintain underwriting capacity in the face of a wide range of severe shocks, and financial markets are able to function, as they adjust to shocks, including the infrastructures in markets that are at the heart of the financial system in the post-crisis reforms, notably clearing houses. Much of that functioning also relies on the second plank of resilience, namely structural measures which are not designed to vary in a counter-cyclical manner, but instead apply equally at all times. For banks, this means minimum capital and leverage ratios on top of which sit buffers which are there to be used counter-cyclically in times of stress. Consistent with the idea of resilience, there are two key questions to ask about the buffers: are they sized consistent with the financial stability objective; and are they in practice usable in times of stress? We have to keep both of these questions under almost continuous review. Post-Brexit, it is necessary that we review and, where appropriate, revise the regulatory system to make it consistent with our UK specific objectives. When I say UK, however, we must recognise – as TheCityUK does – that we are a leading global financial centre. So, our financial stability objective is a global public good, as the IMF has previously noted. We must therefore continue to be closely involved in shaping international standards, and then implement them properly. I can assure you that we are doing both of these.