samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Second, inflation gradually increased in 2007 and 2008 to over 4 per cent. Inflation increased rapidly even if the effect of rising mortgage rates is discounted. This was largely due to rising energy and food prices. These price rises, as I mentioned earlier, were rooted in the expansionary monetary policy and the high level of growth in the world as a whole. The impact of monetary policy comes after a considerable time lag and the rate of inflation we see in these years is affected by monetary policy in previous years (see Figure 7). Third, inflation expectations also increased. The fact that inflation expectations one year ahead increased is natural given that the measured inflation rate also increased. However, inflation expectations five years ahead can be interpreted as an indication of whether monetary policy is credible or not. As long as these expectations are close to the inflation target, then this is a sign that the respondents expect the Riksbank to attain its target in the long term. The fact the long-term inflation expectations increased to over 2.5 per cent was therefore more worrying (see Figure 8). Fourth, there was a rapid expansion of credit and a rapid increase in housing prices. Lending to non-financial companies and to households increased by 10–15 per year in the years preceding the crisis and house prices increased by around 10 per cent per year. The prices of tenant-owned apartments increased even more rapidly.

In this case it is quite possible that it will need to be raised by more than  15  8  Monetary Policy Report 1, 2011, pages 17–19, Norges Bank. BIS central bankers’ speeches  0.25 percentage points at one or more meetings and that it will need to be increased to 4 per cent already next year. Resource utilisation In my overall assessment, resource utilisation is more or less normal at present and with the present forecasts it will be higher than normal and rising towards the end of the forecast period. This also indicates the need for a higher repo-rate path than the presented path. The Riksbank uses several different measures of resource utilisation. According to these measures, the GDP gap, for example, will be approximately –1 per cent in the first quarter of 2011. My own assessment is that it will be a little higher than this, more or less zero. The level indicated by the so-called RU indicator also supports the claim that resource utilisation is largely normal. The RU indicator, which has been developed by the Riksbank and weighs together a large number of indicators to form a summary measure of resource utilisation, reached a normal level already in the fourth quarter of 2010. Several other measures also indicate that resource utilisation is normal (see Figure 19). Unemployment, on the other hand, is still higher than normal.
Consequently, Saudi banking companies were established and became integrated with the global banking system, benefiting from its expertise and training capabilities, and coped with its  BIS Review 59/2006  1  developments. Eventually, the Saudi banks compare well with their counterparts in advanced countries. During the 1990s, no new bank licenses were issued. However the year 2000 ushered in a new era of openness when a license was granted to the Gulf International Bank, a Bahraini bank, owned by the GCC countries. This was to implement a decision made by the GCC Heads of States to permit qualifying GCC-owned banks in their home markets. This has been followed by new licenses to 4 more GCC-owned banks, (namely the Emirates Bank International, the National Bank of Kuwait, the National Bank of Bahrain and the Bank Muscat). Licenses were also granted to five other major international and emerging market banks (that include BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, State Bank of India and National Bank of Pakistan). Just during this past week Deutsche Bank has opened its branch in Riyadh and National Bank of Kuwait in Jeddah. The remaining banks are in the process of opening their branches in 2006. On 27/2/1427H, a Royal Decree was issued approving the incorporation of a joint-stock company under the name "the Development Bank", with a capital of Rls 15.0 billion. This would enhance competition and open new horizons for diversified banking services.

John taught Tiger about opportunity costs. Immediately afterwards, Tiger left college and joined the pro tour. Clearly, a decision that paid off. But back to John Taylor again. Today, he will talk about ‘Ideas and Institutions in Monetary Policy Making’. Before giving him the floor, I will briefly introduce him. Born in Yonkers, New York, John Taylor earned his A.B. from Princeton University and his Ph.D. from Stanford. He taught at Columbia University from 1973–1980 and at Princeton University from 1980–1984. And since 1984, he has been teaching and researching at Stanford. John is the perfect economist. He is outstanding as a researcher, policy advisor and teacher. In acknowledgment of his exceptional services, he has received a number of prestigious awards for excellence in all these three fields. Let me say a few words about each of these areas, beginning with John Taylor the researcher. His research topics range from work on rational expectations to wage and price dynamics, macroeconomics, econometrics, fiscal policy, and, of course, monetary policy. He has written an impressive number of influential articles in leading journals and important books. It is impossible to summarise his research in a few sentences. Therefore, I will limit myself to two topics. The first topic dates back to the second half of the 1970s, when John initiated a research strategy that would have a profound and lasting impact on our profession. It was a time when the new-classical macroeconomists were claiming that monetary policy was powerless when it came to steering the economy.
We have sought to push in the direction of market forces, rather than against them. Asset management One good illustration of how we have sought to promote and develop our financial centre is our efforts to develop Singapore into an asset management hub. We assessed very early on was that there was good potential for growing the asset management industry in Singapore. A rising affluent class across Asia would have assets needing to be managed. Most of the savings in Asian countries are still in the form of bank deposits. There is considerable scope for diverting some of these funds for professional management. There was also an opportunity for managing the Asian mandates of global portfolio investors, an area where no clear leader had emerged. We believe that global funds and institutions would find Singapore a good location from which to manage their Asian portfolios. Although for now the region is not a hot destination for inbound investments, this will change as the region picks up again. We therefore carried out a comprehensive strategy to strengthen our fund management industry. We streamlined licensing requirements for fund mangers, and provided more room for indigenous fund managers to grow. We introduced tax incentives, especially for fund managers managing substantial amounts of discretionary funds out of Singapore. We leveraged on our domestic savings, both government and private, to attract fund managers here.

Over the last three years, the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, or GIC, committed to place out $ billion, and MAS to place out $ billion, to be managed by fund managers based in Singapore. We progressively liberalised rules governing the Central Provident Fund, to allow Singaporeans to invest their retirement savings under professional management, instead of leaving them with the Government. These policies and initiatives have yielded good results, and attracted new players who have contributed to the depth of our asset management industry. Despite difficult market conditions in the year 2000, Singapore's wealth management industry has remained resilient. The MAS' latest Survey of the Asset Management Industry shows that total assets under management in Singapore did not decline last year, but continued to grow, albeit slowly. As at end-2000, total assets under management in Singapore amounted to $ billion. Discretionary assets under management showed a decrease,  4  BIS Review 45/2001  reflecting the decline in market valuations in the region, but this was more than offset by an increase in advisory assets. Incumbent managers in Singapore have adopted a long-term perspective. They have increased the scale of their operations, priming for a market upturn. The pool of talent in the industry has grown, with the number of investment professionals located here growing by about 10% in 2000, to a headcount of 1,000. 24 new fund management outfits were established over the last year, bringing the total to 215 companies. Electronic financial services Another promising area is electronic financial services.
Growth in exports also entails several other benefits, such as the creation of an efficient price mechanism, inflow of new technology, employment creation, greater economies of scale, and expansion of the productive resource base of the country. In the last decade, increasing reliance on unsustainable levels of foreign borrowing was an inevitable consequence of growth which was dependent on non-tradeable domestic goods. If you go for an Page 11 of 17  inward looking growth strategy, as we did in the last 10-12 years, inevitably you run into the difficulties we now confront because you have to borrow to invest and we haven’t created the capacity to earn the foreign exchange to service that debt. The country requires a growth process which is driven by a surplus in the current account of the balance of payments. In the past, we have experienced high growth supported by unsustainable budget deficits. If you look at our growth performance, and you correlate it with the size of the budget deficit, our high-growth years are also characterized by high budget deficits. When growth is created by pumping money into the system through excessive fiscal deficits, it is just not sustainable, because it is not productive; it is essentially driven mainly by consumption. In the past, we tended to keep our interest rates low, and our exchange rate over-valued, so people borrowed and imported. After a couple of years you have balance of payment problems, and also pumping money into the system creates inflation.

Our trade negotiators are well aware of these principles and mechanisms and I am sure they will negotiate effectively. Now in addition to all the deals which that have been negotiated with India, China and Singapore, we have the bilateral FTA in goods with Pakistan which is being invigorated, and on top of that, of course we have EU GSP plus. If you take all this together, if we are able to conclude these Trade Negotiations successfully, Sri Lanka could have access, preferential access, to a market of 3 billion people, which is a massive USP. Now I think Singapore has  preferential access to both China and India. But they don’t have preferential access to EU. So there is no other country in the world that I know of, which has preferential access to China, India and Page 14 of 17  Europe. I know that GSP plus is only for four years. But four years is enough time for us to take advantage of it. So that is a massive opportunity. Now, of course this market of  three billion people is going to provide opportunities for our own exporters. But on top of that the trick is to use this preferential access  to  this  3  billion  person  market  to  leverage  the  trade/investment nexus. We can tell people you can come and locate here and sell on a preferential basis to China, India and Europe.
BIS Review 130/2009  3  4  BIS Review 130/2009  Fourth, the immense heterogeneity and diversity of the Asian economies have not been a restraint on progress, but have complemented and facilitated the region's economic development. The vast differences in the stage of development of the individual economies, such as from the advanced Japan to emerging China to developing Vietnam, together with the rich variety of natural resources and endowments throughout the region, have enabled Asia to capitalise on a multitude of strengths and comparative advantages. In particular, there are the region's different development levels and consequent technological capabilities, known commonly as the “Flying Geese Model”. Such specialised division of labour is evident in the 1970s when Japan relocated the more labour-intensive stages of production processes to the newly industrialised Asian economies, such as South Korea and Singapore, and subsequently in the 1980s, to emerging Asia, including Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. The emergence of China in the recent decade has further provided significant impetus to this pattern of vertical specialisation, which has effectively resulted in a globalisation of the production chain across the network of regional economies. Whilst Asia's fragmented industrialisation has led to a considerable strengthening of trade links within the region, the transfer of capital, knowledge and technologies that are crucial for strengthening industrial capabilities have also been enhanced. Asia after the Asian financial crisis The 1997-98 Asian financial crisis represents a significant juncture in the history of Asia.

Expeditious disposal of legal cases As a further measure, the budget promotes expeditious disposal of legal cases to facilitate the long term viability of banks and financial institutions. To ensure expeditious redress to litigation and avoid delays, new provincial high courts will be set up. Support for capital market and financial sector policies To promote more investments in the capital market and provide assistance to financial innovations, the budgetary framework plans to raise revenue to around 19%, reduce the budget deficit to 5% of GDP and national debt below 85% of GDP by 2009. These measures are intended to provide more resources to the private sector and deepen the capital market. Already the government has permitted foreign investments in Treasury Bonds. National Insurance Trust Fund The budget 2007 also proposes to develop the insurance market in Sri Lanka by setting up a National Insurance Trust Fund which will help to provide risk insurance to affected properties and developing the re-insurance market. While transferring the funds available under the Civil Riots and Commotion Fund, a mandatory cessation of 50% of all re-insurance businesses to the National Insurance Trust Fund is introduced. This too will help save part of the outflow of funds for re-insurance and enhance liquidity in the insurance market. Support for build up of foreign reserves The budget has stipulated a minimum salary of Rs 25,000 or USD 250 for employment abroad requiring all employment agencies to comply with it.
Google and Facebook may be at the top of their industry now, but remember there were Yahoo, MySpace and Friendster. I am very sure somewhere in some garage, killer apps are being developed to rival current industry leaders. The fourth observation is that shifts in consumer needs and expectations will play a key part in the finance revolution. 91% of Malaysians today have a smartphone and 83% will look on the internet to research new products and services. Finance and business models will need to be redeveloped around changes in consumers’ lifestyles and expectations. For example mobile banking in its traditional sense does not work anymore in this country as smartphone penetration is quite high and the public is generally receptive to new ideas and innovations. The transformation of finance and technology will also usher in an era of increasingly educated, empowered and activist consumers, who will scout for the best prices and services. Globally, around a third of consumers would consider banking with a technology giant (e.g. Google, Amazon or Facebook), potentially due to perceived personalisation and better customer experience. The fifth observation is that technology could be the catalyst to propel finance as a great social equaliser of the future. Advancement in technology will enhance financial inclusion by addressing information asymmetry and reducing the cost of extending finance to previously underserved groups. This could grant access to around 2 billion people globally who remain unbanked today, enabling them to save, invest and uplift their livelihood.

The use of data with superior software will enable financial services to be unbundled and increasingly custom-made for individual consumers. Data will enable increased transparency and better assessment of credit worthiness as well as reduction of risks, thus extending financing to previously underserved segments of society. The third observation is that finance may display ‘winner takes all’ characteristics over the long term. This characteristic is apparent in Silicon Valley and the digital economy in general. Market leaders such as Google and Facebook control over two-thirds of the market. This is due to ‘network effects’, where a service becomes more valuable when it has more users. What is also worrying is the value that the market attach to these network effects. We have seen staggering valuations of tech-startups, the so called “unicorn companies”, that sometimes have not even realised any meaningful profits. However, their large user base and ability to scale up quickly have resulted in frenzied valuations. It is as if the world has forgotten the dot-com bubble crash of the early 2000s. For financial regulators, a winner takes all outcome is not ideal. It is associated with concentration risks and “too-big-to-fail” issues. Concentration of risks and dependence on too few service providers never ends well. The only consolation I can think of is that “network effects” in the digital economy are not as durable as those found in traditional sectors such as railway networks and power grids.
In my mind, the term umpire conjures up a portly old gentleman in a white coat and straw boater. Surely the modern IMF should have a more dynamic and up to date image? But it turns out that even cricket has moved on. I am not referring to the recent abandonment of the England Pakistan match, for the first time ever, after a heated disagreement between an umpire and players. No, what I have in mind is the advanced computer technology which I gather now exists, aptly named Hawk-Eye, which could assist umpires in making the most difficult calls – those about which the players of the game are most likely to disagree. So we should think of the IMF as the cricket umpire of the future, with Hawk-Eye in her toolkit – where the Fund’s Hawk-Eye will be its impartial analysis, assessment and advice, enabling it to dissect the most difficult policy issues in the global economy. Reforming the Fund’s surveillance If that is the vision, the relevant questions are whether the Fund’s current surveillance activities are well designed to meet the need; and if not, what can be done to improve matters? BIS Review 103/2006  3  The answer to the first question is clearly no. Despite many reviews, the underpinning Surveillance Decision, agreed three decades ago, has never been revised. And over that time Fund surveillance has drifted a long way from its original – narrowly defined – purpose. Fortunately, there is now broad agreement about the main problems that need addressing.

in the product, services and labour markets, healthcare and social insurance systems etc. For Estonia the adoption of the euro is the only logical step and the overarching policy priority. In this context, we would like to emphasize that it is in the interest of the whole European Union that the Euro Area enlargement takes place in accordance with the clear set of well known rules while the criteria are applied, in line with the Treaty provisions, on an equal and economically meaningful manner. The countries joining should have a proven track record to fare well under the common monetary policy. This being the case, the Euro Area membership would fasten the catch-up process in these countries and strengthen the countries' ownership in the EU-wide macroeconomic co-operation at large. Macroeconomic stability and economic flexibility are prerequisites for the new Member States to ensure that investment in physical and human capital is sustained and outlays for research and development further increased. Higher growth and stronger policy coordination on the EU level will also strengthen the social dimension of enlargement. BIS Review 60/2006  1
Ardian Fullani: The importance of economic research Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the workshop “Economic research in South-Eastern Europe”, Tirana, 15 November 2007. *  *  *  Dear ladies and gentlemen! It is a great pleasure to be here today and open the proceedings of the workshop “Economic research in Southeast Europe“. First, allow me to express my thanks to the representatives from the respective central banks for their participation in this workshop and all the other guests present today. Let us hope that this workshop will serve as a catalyst for a more intensified exchange of experiences among our region in the field of economic research. This process is of special importance with a view to improving the standards of economic research and for enhancing our know-how in this area. Undoubtedly, timely and accurate economic research is vital for undertaking more sound economic policies for boosting a stable and non-inflationary growth and for coping with various risks under a dynamic and rapid integration of our economies. From a central bank’s viewpoint, economic research should aim at reaching an optimal balance between the significance to the monetary policy or financial stability, their quality and timely availability. When compared to the academic economic research, a central bank’s economic research should manifest the same quality, but be positioned on assisting the monetary policy decision-making process. Otherwise, their added value is overwhelmingly reduced.

In this context, the cooperation between the institutions of public administration and the academia, the cooperation between different countries and the establishment of research nets on various areas are of prime importance. They would not only enhance the efficiency in carrying out the research, but also stimulate the professional critique and opposition and reach higher standards. The research mission described above, clear and well-defined within the framework of a central bank should not be understood as an isolate mission. The studies can not take place in a closed environment. They need debate and exchange of ideas with the academy, business and other interested stakeholders. In this regard, it is my pleasure to state that the Bank of Albania has made its research subject to reviews in activities organized particularly for this purpose (inflation targeting, round tables, Friday workshops, etc). I invite you to do the same thing even during this activity. In view of debate and discussion, we have made constant efforts to attract academy and intellectuals in the discussion of our works. The Bank of Albania has introduced the “series of Friday seminars”, as an infrastructure to promote this debate. Twice a month this forum invites the interested persons within and outside the Bank of Albania to discuss their research on topics of economic nature. The activity is as much open for home and foreign researchers from the academy and business as it is open for the Bank of Albania employees.