samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But even the World Trade Organisation, despite the critical importance to the world economy, and especially its poorer citizens, of opening up trade, has found it difficult to arouse sufficient “sympathy”, to use Smith’s word, to get agreement on constraints on our future behaviour. But let us not be pessimistic. The three principles of institutional design may be helpful in thinking about future collective decisions in areas as diverse as health, education, pensions and taxation, just as they were in constructing a new monetary policy framework. But that is for others to take forward. Conclusions I recognise that the success of central banks in keeping inflation low and stable over the past decade may owe something to good fortune as well as to good policy. But, as the legendary football manager Bill Shankly used to say, “it’s strange, but the better we play, the luckier we get”. What really matters, however, is that we as central bankers acknowledge that we owe everything to the design of the institutional framework. As I have argued this evening, a central part of Adam Smith’s legacy is an appreciation of the essential role played by social institutions. So it is appropriate that it was another son of Kirkcaldy who, over two hundred years later, created the new institutional framework for the Bank of England in 1997. As Niccolo Machiavelli wrote in The Prince, “Nothing brings a man greater honour than the new laws and new institutions he establishes”.

This is also evident in the KfW-ifo-Mittelstandsbarometer. Germany is an open and integrated economy, so it is not surprising that a slowdown in the rest of the euro area has an impact here. Intra-euro area trade amounts to around 40% of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  German GDP. And around 65% of foreign direct investment in Germany comes from other euro area countries. But it is less often noted how problems in the wider euro area affect the financial situation in Germany. It is the weak euro area economy that is keeping interest rates here at very low levels. And it is the crisis of confidence in some euro area countries that is causing safehaven flows of money into Germany, depressing interest rates even further. This highlights the fact that countries in a single currency area are connected like communicating vessels. A change in one vessel creates an equal change in all the others. As interest rates rise in countries in difficulty, they fall in strong countries like Germany. As TARGET2 liabilities increase in some countries due to capital outflows, TARGET2 claims increase in Germany due to capital inflows. Financial developments in Germany are the mirror-image of financial developments in the rest of the euro area. And this means that measures to ensure the stability of the euro area as a whole will also be to the benefit of Germany. So let me now turn to the actions being taken by governments to achieve that goal of stability.
In one policy, it demonstrates our transparent, flexible, proportionate, and credible approach to resolvability. Making the UK resolution regime more transparent and better understood is at the heart of the aims of the RAF. Disclosures made by firms and the public statements with views on individual firms made by the Bank are a major component of the RAF – and my Dear CEO letter reinforces our existing expectations. Each of the major UK banks will assess their preparations for resolution, submit a report of their assessment and publish a summary of their report every two years. The Bank will also make its own public statement on the resolvability of these banks. Combined with our policy statements and our annual publication of loss absorbency requirements, this aims to help investors better understand the progress firms are making to become more resolvable, and what would happen in a resolution. This will ultimately help the UK banking system function more efficiently by allowing the public and investors to hold banks more effectively to account, with the confidence that any failure, should it occur, be more orderly. The RAF is an inherently flexible framework. The focus is on banks and building societies to do what may not come naturally – confront the difficult and complex judgements required in a resolution in advance and plan for them. Identifying and having flexible capabilities that give the authorities options to respond to a range of failure scenarios, rather than asking them to address a specific one, is important.

If the risk that a client might fail became too high, a clearing bank could decide not to unwind that client’s trades in the morning, leaving its investors with the collateral. Most of these investors lacked the operational or financial capacity to take possession of collateral and liquidate it in a gradual manner to recoup their investment; they had a strong incentive to run at the first sign of trouble to avoid getting stuck with the dealer’s collateral. Alternatively, if a client were to fail suddenly after the mornings unwind, then the clearing bank would be stuck with huge loans to these counterparties that could have put their own viability at risk, backed by securities that were not necessarily high quality and liquid. The “breaking the buck” by the Reserve Fund following the Lehman bankruptcy also made it clear that the monies provided to the money market mutual funds by their own investors were also inherently unstable. This made such funds, in turn, an unreliable source of finance in repo, commercial paper and other markets. Investors in a fixed net asset value (NAV) money market fund could take their money out on a daily basis at par value, with no redemption penalty. This could occur even if the money market fund did not have sufficient cash or liquid assets that it could easily sell to meet all potential redemptions.
Firstly, financing Asia’s retirement funding gap. Asia is experiencing declining fertility rates, increasing life expectancy, and a rapidly aging population. Between 2011 and 2030, Asia’s share of population aged 60 and above will increase from 40% to almost 50%, compared to the global average of 20%7. At the same time, public retirement and pension systems remain inadequate, and the retirement funding gap is estimated to be up to 13 years of retirement savings8. Insurers can play a pivotal role in financing individuals’ retirement security through pension, annuity and saving products, complementing public pensions. 6  Source: Munich Re Study on Asia-Pacific Insurance Market 2020 (March 2012). 7  “Financing Social Protection in Developing Asia: Now and In the Future”, NUS, 27 May 2013. 8  2013 Manulife Investor Sentiment Survey. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  22. Insurers in Asia stand to benefit from robust premium growth on the one hand; but will also be subject to greater volatility from fluctuations in the economic and financial market cycles on the other. The low-interest rate environment is likely to magnify the present value of future increases in longevity, which will in turn, affect the solvency position of annuity providers and pension funds. While this can have unintended consequences on insurers’ role in supporting retirement adequacy, it can provide the impetus for product innovation and alignment with the new investment and regulatory climate.

This ecosystem is selfreinforcing, creating a strong “clustering” effect that has been a key growth driver for Singapore’s insurance market. 25. As Singapore continues to develop itself as a global insurance market with the ability to write not just Asian risks but global risks, many insurers are also making plans to set-up their fund management arms to manage their growing investment portfolios in the region. In addition to honing investment skills, there is also a general consensus on the need to strengthen internal risk management expertise, as well as deepen data and modeling capabilities, so as to attain a strong understanding of local market risks. To better manage the risks of more complex products, as well as aggregate portfolio risks, many are also increasingly leveraging on the external expertise of the sell-side bank and capital market players, as well as fund managers in Singapore. 26. Singapore is also highly committed to research and development, and is establishing itself as an innovation centre of excellence. To respond to the challenges of an ageing Asia, it is imperative for Singapore to be at the forefront and lead the development of retirement financing solutions for individuals, businesses and governments in Asia. Research is an upstream activity preceding product development. To differentiate yourselves through innovation, we would strongly encourage the industry to continue to conduct Asian-focused retirement security research in collaboration with research institutes in Singapore, such as  9  2009 OECD and IMF estimates.
According to data of the Ministry of Finance, the Kingdom registered a real surplus of SAR 180.3 billion (6.5 percent of GDP) in its budget during 2013. The public debt fell to SAR 75.1 billion (representing 2.7 percent of GDP). Moreover, the Kingdom achieved a surplus of SAR 486.8 billion (17.4 percent of GDP) in the current account of the balance of payments (compared to 22.4 percent in the preceding year). The inflation rate increased from 2.9 percent in 2012 to 3.5 percent in 2013. However, it is still under control. According to the latest data of the Central Department of Statistics and Information, the inflation annual rate declined to 2.8 percent during February 2014, given that the inflation rate in emerging and developing economies was estimated at 6.2 percent in 2013. Inflationary pressures in the Kingdom were due to the housing sector and food prices. At the time when a number of industrial countries are witnessing a decline in their credit rating, Fitch Credit Rating Agency promoted the Kingdom’s sovereign credit rating from (AA-) to (AA) with a stable outlook, strengthening confidence in our national economy and making it more attractive to investments. Ladies and gentlemen, Allow me to talk about activities supervised by SAMA. In the banking sector, domestic banks continued to play their roles in serving the national economy in accordance with latest secure technologies in the banking services field. Monetary base (M3) increased by 10.8 percent in 2013 (by 12.8 percent in January of this year).

We know that because labour’s share of the national income pie is similar today to 1750. th  Of course, it is not ideas and innovation from the 18 century that has sustained growth over the subsequent period. Although the innovation process is continuous, historians often point to three distinct waves – three th  Industrial Revolutions. The second came in the latter part of the 19 century with the emergence of GPTs  11 12 13  For example, Romer (1990) describes a theoretical model of growth based around innovation. Bresnahan and Trajtenberg (1995). For example, Mokyr (2011) discusses Britain during the Industrial Revolution. 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  such as electricity, the internal combustion engine and sanitation. The third came in the middle of the th  20 century with new GPTs such as computing, digitisation and the internet. 14  Yet in each case the playbook was familiar from the first Industrial Revolution. The emergence of a new strain of GPTs resulted in an outward shift in the production possibility frontier and capital-deepening. With higher levels of investment in physical and human capital, the productivity of companies, the wages of workers and the living standards of societies continued their Northerly ascent. The Golden Era continued. Some people are now discussing the next innovation wave, a so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution. The GPTs driving this are likely to include Artificial Intelligence (AI), Big Data, automation, robotics, 3D-printing and nano-technology.
Gent Sejko: Bank of Albania's achievements in 2022 and challenges for 2023 Address by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the end-of-year meeting with journalists, analysts and media representatives and the Governor's Award ceremony, Tirana, 20 December 2022. *** Dear ladies and gentlemen, I feel honoured and privileged to welcome in the historical hall of the Bank of Albania, media representatives and talented students who are brave in competing for "Governor's Award for the Best Diploma Theses". In the last year event, I emphasised that we experienced an unusual 3-year period, with the hope that 2022 would be different, more vivid and more optimistic. Nevertheless, the end of 2022 is proving a really challenging one, mainly due to the huge shock on commodity prices of energy, oil and gas, in particular. The increased prices - mainly engendered from the outbreak of the Russia's war in Ukraine - has generated strong inflationary pressures worldwide, triggering a difficult time for consumption and economic growth globally. Albania is facing the same challenges as well. In November, inflation stood at 7.9%, somewhat lower than in the previous month, though a high level which is the main threat to both the macroeconomic stability and to the sustainable and long-term growth of Albania. In this context, I would like to point out that the latest forecasts at the Bank of Albania show that inflation is expected to progressively reduce during 2023, and return to target in the middle of 2024.

This inaugural conference is set to mark a significant step to enhance collaboration and deepen financial linkages in Islamic finance between Malaysia and Hong Kong. The theme “Sukuk as a Viable FundRaising and Investment Instrument” is most apt, given that the ethical-based fixed income instrument has increasingly gained recognition by the global financial community as an attractive source of funding for real sectors and long-term development. Adoption of best practices for sukuk issuance The growth of the global sukuk market has been very promising. It reached a stock value of USD268 billion at the end of 2013 and since 2000 has grown at a cumulative average rate of 50% per annum. The creation of a sukuk market in Hong Kong is a timely initiative as it has the potential to further spearhead its foray into Islamic finance. Sukuk, as a new asset class, is ideal for portfolio diversification and is increasingly well-accepted all over the world. From our experience, the new venture by Hong Kong into the sukuk market may be able to deepen its bond market further and open the opportunity to tap the burgeoning investor pool seeking good quality Shariah compliant and ethical-based instruments. Being a player in an increasingly developed sukuk market, Hong Kong has the opportunity to adopt the best practices in sukuk issuances. Firstly, in the area of Shariah standards where it provides principle-based guidance on the execution of Islamic financial contracts. Such standards are designed to cover the needs of different jurisdictions.
In addition, the large Swedish exporting companies learnt how to evade the restrictions on capital movements which gave them a competitive advantage over smaller competitors also in the domestic market. The increasing deficits in the fiscal budget and in the current account made the restrictive system nonoperative. The government finally decided to abolish them, although in a careful and gradual fashion to minimise disturbances to the markets and the economy. During a period spanning the late 1970s and the early 1980s the domestic regulations and the restrictions on capital movements were gradually scrapped. The credit market restrictions were finally rescinded in 1985 and the capital movements’ restrictions in 1989. This was very late compared to most other European countries. However, domestic policies were not adjusted to an environment of free capital flows and a free credit market. The fiscal policy and the tax system induced borrowing and monetary policy could not act as a brake since it was geared to the fixed exchange rate regime. Consequently, a few years after the completion of the deregulation, a financial crisis broke out. In today’s presentation, I will not go into detail about the manifold reasons leading to the crisis but instead focus on the aspects relevant to the financial sector.

Last year Sweden had one of the largest surpluses in public savings in the EU, which enabled an expansionary fiscal policy. The slowdown in 2001 also differs from the problem periods during the 1970s and 1980s in that the manufacturing industry’s competitive situation was very strong from the start. The weakening of the krona began as soon as one year before industrial activity slowed down and contributed to a strong development in net exports during 2001. Nor was it lack of competitiveness or a decline in productivity that lay behind the depreciation of the krona - it was financial flows resulting from the decline on the  BIS Review 37/2002  5  stock market and portfolio investments connected with the AP pension funds being given the opportunity to invest some assets abroad. A recovery in the Swedish economy has now begun and the Swedish economy has a good foundation to stand on, with a surplus in both the central government finances and in Sweden’s trade abroad. Inflation is on the way down. At the same time, wage formation and pricing behaviour in general will comprise an uncertainty factor when economic activity gradually picks up speed. It may therefore be necessary to implement further interest rate hikes in future. However, the next monetary policy stage depends, as always, on what happens with regard to economic activity, inflation and in the world around us.
And, most important of all, central banks must strive to maintain the medium-term credibility of monetary policy, as an essential pre-condition for the stability in which both the real and financial economy can thrive. Not pretending that the world is simpler or safer than the reality is one small part of that endeavour. 23  8  See, for example, the US Brady Report, and the report of the Hong Kong Securities Review Committee, 1987.

It is from this profit and risk sharing feature of Islamic financial transactions that a high level of disclosure and transparency is required. This represents a basic tenet underlying all Islamic financial transactions. There is an inherent obligation to meet the appropriate standards of transparency. The accountabilities of the respective parties involved in the transaction are also clearly defined in the contract. These disclosures also allow the market to assign the appropriate risk premiums to the respective companies thereby enhancing the potential for market discipline to take effect. These intrinsic features as required by the Shariah injunctions provide an in-built checks and balances which serve to ensure financial stability in the Islamic financial system. Malaysian experience Allow me to take this opportunity to share with you Malaysia's experience in developing the Islamic financial system, and in particular, the Islamic capital market. Malaysia has developed over more than two decades, a comprehensive Islamic financial system that operates in parallel with the conventional financial system. The Islamic financial system in Malaysia has evolved as a competitive component of the domestic financial system with a significant number of diverse players in the Islamic banking, the takaful industry and the Islamic money and capital markets. Our approach has been to focus on institutional development, reinforced by a robust Shariah, legal and regulatory framework as well as the investment in human capital development. In this more recent decade, attention has been focussed on developing the financial markets, in particular the sukuk market, and on the liberalisation of the Islamic financial system.
Overall, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a bit under a 3-1/2 percent rate in the second half, up from an average pace of growth of about 2 percent over the previous three years. Moreover, we’ve seen some more solid consumer spending, which should provide further impetus to overall growth this year. In the labor market, job growth has been solid and the unemployment rate is down to 6.7 percent. That is well below the 8.1 percent rate that  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  prevailed when we instituted the latest round of large-scale asset purchases in September 2012. However, we aren’t out of the woods yet. The harsh weather of this past winter – by which I mean the North American polar vortex – makes the recent data difficult to interpret. That said, some of them have been on the soft side. Balance sheet scars from the financial crisis are still weighing on the economy. Fiscal policy is a restraint on economic growth. And economic activity abroad is not robust. The good news is that all of these headwinds appear to be dissipating. But risks remain. And we still have large resource gaps. For example, the unemployment rate is still well above the 5-1/4 percent rate I think it should be in the long run. At the same time, inflation is only 1 percent – well below the FOMC’s longer-run target of 2 percent. Accordingly, monetary policy is highly accommodative, and needs to remain so for some time.

However, beyond these basic principles, what is the appropriate monetary policy stance for achieving both financial stability and the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability? With inflation running well below our 2 percent longer-run target and the unemployment rate still well above its normal long-term level, appropriate monetary policy dictates that low real interest rates should prevail until the economy is further along a sustainable path to its potential level and inflation is closer to target. Nonetheless, it is common to hear the  1  Because of some differences in product coverage and statistical methodologies, total CPI inflation tends to average 1/4 to 1/2 percentage points higher than total PCE inflation. Hence, the FOMC’s 2 percent target on total PCE inflation would translate to a 2.3 percent to 2.5 percent target for total CPI inflation. 2  I recently discussed the costs of too-low inflation and the implications of having a 2 percent inflation target in a January 15 speech; see Evans (2014). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  argument that these highly accommodative monetary policies might sow the seeds of financial instability. The fear is that excessive and persistently low interest rates would lead to excessive risktaking by some investors. For instance, some firms, such as life insurance companies and pension funds, are under pressure to meet a stream of fixed liabilities incurred when interest rates were higher.3 (And perhaps these liabilities were offered at somewhat generous terms to begin with.)