samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It is reasonable to distribute our petroleum wealth equitably among generations. The size of the cash flow from petroleum activities also varies considerably. If petroleum revenues were to be used as they accrue, this would lead to wide fluctuations in demand in the Norwegian economy. Cyclical fluctuations would be much more pronounced. Third, the use of petroleum revenues will have an impact on competitiveness in Norwegian business and industry. The level of and fluctuations in the use of petroleum revenues will have a considerable impact on the exchange rate and thus on growth in the regions with extensive export activities. The Government Petroleum Fund was established in 1990 with a view to safeguarding long-term considerations in the use of petroleum revenues. In March 2001, the fiscal rule and new guidelines for monetary policy were introduced. The fiscal rule implies that the central government budget deficit shall be equivalent over time to the expected real return on the Government Petroleum Fund. The new guidelines for economic policy received broad support in the Storting. The rule specifying that only the real return on the Petroleum Fund is to be used means that the capital in the Fund shall not be depleted. The capital in the Petroleum Fund will increase as long as there is a positive cash flow (to the central government) from petroleum activities.

Ravi Menon: FinTech – harnessing its power, managing its risks Panel remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Singapore Forum, Singapore, 2 April 2016. *  *  *  FinTech is fundamentally transforming the financial industry. •  The smartphone is becoming our bank. •  Computer programmes are offering investment advice. •  People can now lend directly to one another online. Technology will replace many jobs in finance but will also create exciting new jobs. •  Calls for new and different skill sets – understanding technology and the ability to work with and harness the power of machines and algorithms  •  As someone in Silicon Valley put it, “the geek shall inherit the earth”. Unregulated FinTech companies are now providing many financial services. They will challenge traditional financial institutions (FIs), disrupt and even displace some of them but will not replace them. •  Banks and insurance companies have something that unregulated entities do not have – trust. Trust based on a track record of performance. •  FIs are not sitting still. –  They are actively harnessing technology to enhance product offerings and improve efficiency. –  They are setting up in-house FinTech units to replicate the start-up mentality. Many global banks have set up “innovation labs” in S’pore: Citibank, StanChart, UBS, HSBC, to name a few. And insurance companies too: Aviva, Aon, AXA, MetLife.
Now, wearing my hat as a regulator, a “radically open mind” does not mean that financial stability falls by the wayside. The use of digital innovations needs to be complemented by a clear approach to money laundering and financial risks. We continuously work with banks to achieve this. We also ensure that consumers and investors understand the risks associated with investments in these still-largely unregulated products. 18. To do this we need to put in the right guardrails. The basic principle is “same activity, same risks, same regulation”, such that digital assets performing similar functions to traditional products should be subject to similar regulations. This is exactly what we and other regulators in Hong Kong are doing. 19. The HKMA is putting in place a risk-based and proportionate regulatory regime for payment-related stablecoins. The SFC is introducing a framework to regulate digital asset trading platforms. We have issued guidance to banks on what they need to watch out for if they wish to offer crypto- or DeFi-related services, whether for account opening or custodial services. 20. These guardrails will provide a solid foundation with a clear set of rules, on which a vibrant crypto and DeFi ecosystem can be built in Hong Kong. 21. Whether I’m wearing my hat as market enabler or regulator, there is a need to be radically open-minded; to have a welcoming attitude to new ideas, so that we can achieve public good through a fair balance between innovation and stability. “More is More” 22. My second reflection is “more is more”.

However, a strengthening of the krona weakens inflation. As inflation is expected to be slightly below the target over the coming years – and now I am referring to inflation adjusted for the effect of interest rate changes on housing costs – this is something that in itself could be an argument for a more expansionary monetary policy. The brighter economic prospects thus point towards a tighter monetary policy, while the stronger krona points towards a more expansionary monetary policy. I believe that there is more uncertainty about the development of the krona in the period ahead than about the development of economic activity. I therefore attach relatively little importance to the krona when assessing what would be a well-balanced monetary policy. 6  BIS Review 111/2009  This means that I instead place greater importance on the improved economic prospects. However, despite the fact that prospects now seem a little brighter, it is still the case that resource utilisation is expected to be significantly below normal over the next few years. This means that there is still a need for monetary policy stimulation to stabilise the real economy. Nor does it appear that such stimulation will conflict with the inflation target. Inflation measured in terms of the CPIF is expected to be slightly below the target of 2 per cent in the next few years. All in all, there is therefore nothing at the moment that calls for a tightening of monetary policy at a faster rate than in our assessment in July.
In order to illustrate some of the lessons learned from the crisis, I offer two different perspectives: first as a research economist trying to make sense out of the initial phases of the crisis in real time and mostly failing; and second as a central banker directly observing and trying to counteract the panic that took hold of global financial markets in September 2008. My observations will further underscore the absolute criticality of a central bank’s interactions with financial markets as a basis for properly diagnosing financial disruptions that threaten the economy and developing effective remedies. In an immediate response to the onset of the crisis in August 2007, the New York Fed began to hold an in-depth discussion every afternoon about the day’s developments. These discussions involved staff from all parts of the Bank and were usually led by Tim Geithner, the president of the New York Fed at that time. In addition to a summary of market developments, prices and liquidity conditions, staff would bring information from across a spectrum of financial institutions and market participants, the kind of information that throughout the crisis period would prove to be invaluable to policy makers. In addition to sharing information from across the Bank, discussions at these meetings would aim to synthesize diverse information gleaned from markets or if no synthesis was available generate new questions for the staff to gain intelligence on.

Of course, fixed income and equity markets have different characteristics but perhaps a more important distinction is the role of heterogeneous beliefs and how this might be reflected in asset prices. The economics profession has made great strides in its use of expectations in models but one of the short cuts required to produce these great strides was the simplification to homogenous beliefs. For much of the period leading up to the crisis this simplification was of no consequence. However, as we now understand from sophisticated analysis of models with heterogeneous beliefs, it can produce high valuations for certain set of assets and large abrupt moves in certain market prices when leveraged positions are unwound.10 How does this unwind express itself in real time in the views and actions of market participants? First, the views tend to become even more dispersed, as do the views regarding what the central bank should do about it. Second, market participants become more suspicious of each other and rumors can spread like wildfires. Many participants take defensive actions which if one is tracking market prices at a daily frequency add tremendously to the inherent noise in high frequency market moves.11 More importantly, when the probability of a failure of a counterparty starts to increase the signal in market prices becomes a mixture of fundamentals and assessments of the likelihood of government intervention.
As a central bank, our portfolio varies in profile: from more the things you probably won’t see or hear about – such as a multi-year investment to simplify a complex web of six middle office valuation and operational control systems and over 60 interlinking system exports by introducing a single data management system, affectionately known as MOSR; to the things you definitely will have heard about (not least because I have already mentioned it today) – such as our ambitious and innovative renewal of the infrastructure at the heart of UK payments – RTGS7. Change of course comes with risks and costs, and those need to be managed carefully. But it also offers potential in the long run to reduce costs, increase efficiency, and improve resilience. A more efficient post trade system could reduce settlement times and operational risks. In a world where, internationally, economies are growing and opening – resilient post-trade markets will need to service an ever growing sector of users. 4  Carney, M. (2019). A Platform for Innovation. Available at: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2019/mark-carney-speech-atinnovate-finance-global-summit-2019 5 Carney, M. (2018). New Economy, New Finance, New Bank. Available at: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2018/markcarney-speech-at-the-lord-mayors-bankers-and-merchants-dinner-mansion-house 6 Ramsden, D. (2019). Embracing Fintech. Available at: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2019/dave-ramsden-speech-atinnovate-finance-global-summit-2019 7 RTGS Renewal Programme: A blueprint for a new RTGS service for the United Kingdom.

A number of other countries have committed to a new, global standard ISO20022; in the UK the Bank of England and Pay.UK have committed to introduce it for CHAPS and Pay.UK’s retail payment systems, via the introduction of the Common Credit Message, helping to integrate a common language for global payments data in the UK’s payment systems16. I’m sure many of you recognise the ISO20022 from the ECB’s Target2-Securities and Target Instant Payment Settlement17 . In doing this the Bank has also committed to making Legal Entity Identifiers a mandatory component of its financial institution to financial institution CHAPS messages, and can see great value in also extending use of Legal Entity Identifiers (LEI) to a wider range of transactions in the longer term. I’m sure many of you are familiar with the LEI, as part of MiFID II transaction reporting. As well as being a valuable financial reporting tool, we believe the LEI could be a building block for further innovation, delivering wider economic benefits for end users of financial services – increased usage could raise efficiency, competition and productivity18. As well as the benefits that come with international harmonisation, greater flexibility, and richer payments data, there are gains to be had for system-wide resilience. Using the same messaging standard across many payment systems will help to facilitate the re-routing of payment messages, reducing the impact of system outages.
Central Bank of Kuwait - Public ‫ عام‬- ‫بنك الكويت المركزي‬  -8-  In the process, they have not only attracted existing customers but also promoted financial inclusion by serving millions of otherwise unbanked customers. In the last seven years, financial inclusion in China has increased from 64% to 80%, and from 42% to 82% in Kenya, in large part due to the emergence of these now FinTech providers.13 Any of the three major challenges described – the difficult economic environment, growing role of technology or the changing customer expectations – would by itself have been a lot for the industry to address. But taken together they are leading to a perfect storm that the industry can no longer afford to ignore. 2- Shaping the Future For the banking industry to continue growing and serving its core utility, it must transform itself. But for a well-established industry that has served us for centuries, where should this journey of transformation begin? To me, it seems that banks must conquer a number of battles if they are to survive. The most crucial of these battles are: i. ii. iii. iv. v.  the battle for customer loyalty, the battle for value, the battle for efficiency, the battle for resilience, and the battle for talent. Let me discuss each of these in turn. Central Bank of Kuwait - Public ‫ عام‬- ‫بنك الكويت المركزي‬  -9-  i. Battle for Customer Loyalty The first of these battles is for customer loyalty.

It is possible, and indeed desirable, to introduce the concept of co-payment by beneficiaries at the widest possible level without compromising the satisfaction of genuine needs. Fourth, there must be acceptance of the need for everyone to contribute to the development of the economy, including through the payment of taxes due. It is highly probable that unless these community values are inculcated in to-day’s rising generations, the economy’s growth prospects will not improve because the resources necessary to undertake the required investments will simply not be available. Fifth, there must be a more effective and focused approach through which Government and its entities support existing export industries and the establishment of new foreign direct investment in Malta. The provision of business advisory and support services must be improved and bureaucratic procedures reduced to a minimum so as to make the most of the opportunities available in a more difficult international trading environment. This new approach would also require a more active participation by Malta in international trade fora at an EU level. It also calls for better co-ordination on these matters within the public administration, and also between Government and the constituted bodies representing the exporting community, whether in industry, tourism or financial and other services. Conclusion Malta’s accession to the European Union has opened up undoubted scope for economic and social advancement. The potential for Malta to successfully exploit this opportunity has been given a clear endorsement by the EU Member States and institutions with this week’s entry of the Maltese lira in ERM II.
This can lead to some households borrowing so much that they will experience difficulty in meeting interest and amortisation payments in the future. To avoid this, which would make it more difficult to attain price stability and stable resource utilisation, the interest rate needs to be raised relatively soon. Conclusions Forecasts are always uncertain and both the Riksbank and other analysts make forecasting errors. However, forecasts are a necessary part of the monetary policy conducted in Sweden. This is because monetary policy’s effects on the economy come with a time lag and it is therefore necessary to look ahead to attain the inflation target. Moreover, the forecasts show how the Executive Board was thinking when the monetary policy decision was made, which is an important part of our communication with the general public. One can also note that the forecast evaluations show that thorough forecasts are better than just assuming that developments follow the indications given by an auto-regressive model. The Riksbank uses both models and expert assessments in its forecasting work. The models are necessary if one wants to analyse the effects of different policy alternatives. They also help us to quantify different types of risk scenario. It is sometimes very difficult to formulate a risk scenario so that it can be fed into a model. An example of this is the risk of a financial crisis. Nevertheless, we should have the ambition to quantify the risks that are considered relevant to our monetary policy decisions.

5  RAMSES stands for the Riksbank’s Aggregated Macro model for Studies of the Economy in Sweden. BIS Review 65/2010  3  together. It is a very useful tool in analysing different scenarios and different action alternatives, and it thus functions as a basis for the discussions on which monetary policy would be best. But the results from model estimates in Ramses and other models are always complemented with, for instance, assessments by sector experts. In the shortest possible perspective – particularly the current quarter, but also to some extent the following quarter – the sector expert often has an information advantage compared with the information contained in Ramses and other models. The sector expert may also have information on different economic policy measures, in addition to monetary policy measures, which could affect the economy throughout the forecast period. One example could be different types of fiscal policy measures that are decided on. It may be difficult to directly include the effects of such measures in the models, due to insufficient resources. The forecasting work at the Riksbank can therefore be described as an interplay between model use and assessments, where the latter can be fairly important, particularly in extreme conditions such as during the financial crisis. A topical example of how the published forecast can differ from the results in Ramses is the GDP forecast for Sweden in the most recent Monetary Policy Update. The published forecast for the coming years is a much higher GDP growth than the Ramses results would indicate.
SPEECH  Jointly shaping Europe’s tomorrow Introductory remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly, 21 September 2020 Frankfurt am Main, 21 September 2020 Dear President Schäuble, Dear President Ferrand, Honourable Members of the Franco-German Assembly, I would like to thank you very warmly for inviting me to join you today. As President of the European Central Bank and a French citizen living and working in Germany, it is an honour to speak at this historic forum. This parliamentary assembly is an embodiment of the special relationship between our two countries and their commitment to European integration. I find it essential that the ECB constantly engages in two-way communication, especially with citizens’ representatives. We need to make sure that the ECB’s voice is heard by the people and that the people’s voice is heard by the ECB. This is why events like today’s are so important for me. Our regular interlocutor is the European Parliament, to whom we are accountable under the Treaty for our monetary policy tasks. Transnational settings like this one give us a further chance to look past nation-specific concerns as we discuss Europe’s future. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is a crisis of unprecedented magnitude. Many of you will recognise the famous words of Jean Monnet, one of the founding fathers of the European project, who said: “Europe will be forged in crises and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises”[1] . This pandemic has proven him right once more.

The developments I have just described offer some insights into how the future steady state risk management framework might look. At the moment, I see four key features: First, while the temporary collateral framework has successfully eased potential collateral shortages, it could be argued that it should not become part of the regular framework. As liquidity demand declines, there will also be less need for an expanded set of eligible collateral. Whether some temporary measures might be transformed into a state-contingent framework, ready to be activated again in the future if circumstances so require, is an open question. As experience shows, each crisis needs a tailored response. Second, we will need to keep the flexibility to adjust the collateral framework to financial innovations, especially when it comes to complex new financial products. The new “simple, transparent and standardised” securitisation regulation is a case in point. It will allow us to better assess the collateral we accept. In a similar way, we will need to forcefully deal with new types of securities, such as conditional pass-through covered bonds, whose risks may not yet have been fully appreciated. 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Third, we will have to retain the risk control frameworks for the asset purchase programmes beyond the horizon of our net asset purchases. As long as we keep outright portfolios on our balance sheet, the reasons behind the risk control measures, including eligibility criteria, purchase limits, benchmarks ensuring diversification and the different risk-sharing agreements, will continue to apply.
John Gieve: Economic prospects and the policy challenge Speech by Sir John Gieve, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, at the Cityco Breakfast Meeting, Manchester, 16 January 2009. *  *  *  Introduction One of the things that strikes me most on coming back to Manchester is the pace at which the fabric of the city changes – and I was looking at this yesterday from up on the 23rd floor. It’s not much more than two years since I was last here but in that time the city centre has added about half a million square feet of retail space, more than 1½ million sq ft of new office space and nearly 8000 extra hotel beds (a 40% increase). All this development reflects the attractiveness of Manchester as a location for inward investment and even more importantly the strong growth in businesses indigenous to the city, many of which are represented today. But while I gather that nearly a million square feet of office space has been let again in 2008 it is clear that in Manchester, as elsewhere, the past year has been increasingly challenging for businesses of all types and the prospect is forbidding. The severity and nature of the challenges we face particularly in the banking sector makes it very difficult to predict where we will be in a year from now. And the pace of change means that it is even more true today than usual that we cannot rely for navigation on official statistics alone.

While the transmission mechanism from official interest rates to the economy has been impaired by the dislocation of financial markets, the cuts in interest rates are still having an impact. While the reductions in the income of savers have offset to some extent the benefits to borrowers in the household sector, the net gain to the company sector is clear. The changes in interest rates have also accounted in part for the depreciation in the sterling exchange rate, which is down around a fifth in the past six months. No one who has lived through the 70s, 80s and early 90s will be complacent about a fall in sterling. But there is no doubt that an appreciable fall in the pound, such as we have seen, has been helpful both in supporting exports and import substitution in the short term and in encouraging the rebalancing of the economy that we need in the medium term. My second point is that it is important to distinguish the medium term from the short term goals. In the medium term we need to see a rebalancing of the economy in the UK, and some other countries, with a higher savings rates, less leverage in the financial sector, and higher net exports. However if everyone tries to increase saving and cut borrowing immediately we could prolong the downturn painfully. If everyone plans for the worst, we are more likely to get it.