The monetary policy transmission mechanism is more fraught with uncertainty and less "linear" than it used to be, as shocks on asset and risk prices introduce discontinuity into financing conditions. These developments underscore two interesting issues in particular that I would like to briefly consider. The first concerns monetary policy responses. It will have escaped nobody’s attention that these responses are not identical across all countries. In my view, this reflects different situations more than divergent approaches. All of the world’s economies are not affected in the same way by property market shocks or developments on credit markets. In particular, we can observe that the distribution of credit remains very dynamic in Europe and that, in most euro area countries, property markets remain relatively stable. More fundamentally, it seems to me that developments in the economic and financial context of globalisation bear out and reinforce the importance given to what, in Eurosystem parlance, we call monetary analysis, i.e. the examination and analysis of the main monetary and financial aggregates. We derive three major benefits from our monetary pillar. First, it favours the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations, which is essential when, as is currently the  1  Guilloux S. and Kharroubi E. (2008), “Some preliminary evidence on the globalization-inflation nexus”, Working paper series N°195, January  2  BIS Review 28/2008  case, instantaneous pressures are strong. Second, it constitutes an integrated framework for the analysis of financial and monetary developments, which is particularly useful in times of structural change and turmoil on credit markets.

According to studies carried out at the Banque de France 1 , the disinflationary impact of imports appears to be relatively independent of import volumes: the mere existence of potential competition renders the markets, in the words of experts, more “contestable” and influences behavioural patterns. These disinflationary forces are still present. However, there are now other more powerful forces that have the opposite effect. The growth of emerging market economies and the rise in the living standards of their populations are leading to a surge in the demand for natural resources, food and energy, which logically has a strong and permanent impact on inflation. Furthermore, by strengthening the magnitude of global shocks in relation to more specifically domestic shocks and favouring the international transmission of the latter, globalisation introduces a much greater synchronisation of inflationary cycles between countries, with the ensuing risks of amplification. Overall, the effects of globalisation have ceased – probably in the long term – to be spontaneously disinflationary. The second topic that I wish to discuss concerns globalisation and financial innovation. There is, in my mind, no doubt about the long-term benefits of the financial innovation process that we have been witnessing over the past twenty years. However, we can also see that it may be accompanied by cyclical developments and structural changes that could potentially prove to be disruptive for monetary policy. Monetary and financial conditions are simultaneously influenced by central bank decisions, but are also increasingly affected by sometimes exogenous trends in asset prices and the pricing of risk.