The debt ratio has almost doubled in twenty years and this is not a sustainable development. There is a risk that overly optimistic expectations of low interest rates for a long time to come have contributed to increased indebtedness. And a rapid growth in debt, together with optimistic expectations, is a pattern that has often preceded financial crises. Even without a crisis, a large debt overhang will hamper economic developments when conditions change. If one wants to influence the incentives for households to take on debt, how effective might the potential measures be? And how do measures in the new field of macroprudential policy compare with other possible measures? Here we are still to a large extent on uncharted ground. But even if we cannot base our decisions on extensive theoretical and empirical research, we can at least gain a rough idea of the potential effects to be expected, by using some simple calculations. I would like to emphasise that the figures I will mention refer to partial and statistical calculations that are based on a number of simplifying assumptions and that they must therefore be taken with a pinch of salt. At the same time, the calculations illustrate the conditions for taking practical decisions. Ordinary households in Luleå, Upplands Väsby and central Stockholm Let us look at some “typical households”, ordinary Swedish households consisting of two adults and two children. Let us say that one of them comes from the municipality of Upplands Väsby outside Stockholm and one from the city of Luleå in Norrbotten.

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