samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The low pay increases in this year’s wage settlement may indicate that the social partners are placing more emphasis on the negative effects of large pay increases on future developments in interest rates, the krone exchange rate and  BIS Review 50/2003  5  employment. We expect that in the light of the experience gained in 2002, public entities will exercise more caution in future wage settlements. Expectations of moderate wage growth are supported by the labour market outlook. The monetary policy easing since last December will boost demand, primarily through private consumption and gradually through business investment. The increase in petroleum investment will also contribute to higher demand for Norwegian products and services. As global demand picks up and excess capacity in service industries is reduced, demand for labour may rise in other sectors of the economy. Unemployment is expected to edge down again. The aim of monetary policy in the period ahead is to achieve a higher level of inflation. The key rate has been reduced with a view to bringing inflation back to target at the two-year horizon. Analyses in the October Inflation Report indicate that inflation will move up and stabilise around the inflation target at the two-year horizon. The real economy is projected to be approximately in balance, with an output gap, as we measure it, that is slightly positive.

All regions of the country have reported an increase in unemployment in the past year, although in Central Norway the increase has been relatively low. This is probably related to the industry structure with a relatively high share of employees in the public service sector. Reports from the regional network indicate that employment in the public sector will remain more or less constant in the period ahead, while there are indications of growth in some private business sectors. The start-up of Rica Nidelven Hotel generated 100 new jobs but also keener competition in Trondheim’s hotel industry. As I mentioned earlier, this snapshot report on the current situation in this part of the country and similar reports from the other regions provide information that is important to interest rate setting. Interest rates were left unchanged at Norges Bank’s Executive Board meeting on 29 October. The sight deposit rate therefore remains at 2.5 per cent. According to Norges Bank’s assessment, with an interest rate of 2.5 per cent, the probability that inflation two years ahead will be higher than 2½ per cent is the same as the probability that it will be lower. By using a time horizon of two years when we set interest rates, monetary policy contributes to stabilising output. The choice of this horizon prevents monetary policy from contributing to unnecessary volatility in the economy. 8  BIS Review 50/2003
In addition, the Act states that the Riksbank, without prejudice to the objective of price stability, shall support general economic policy with a view to achieving sustainable growth and high employment. Furthermore, when the new Act was passed, responsibility for general issues relating to foreign exchange policy was transferred from the Riksbank to the Government It is thus the Government that is to decide on the krona’s relationship to other currencies. This means, for instance, that it is the Government that shall decide whether and when Sweden shall apply for participation in the European exchange rate mechanism, ERM2. However, the Riksbank is responsible for setting the exchange rate at which the linkage shall be made in this case and the width of the band in which the krona shall be allowed to vary. In practice, it is reasonable to assume that this takes place in consultation with the Government, not least because Sweden cannot decide on this unilaterally. Control is exercised in various ways to ensure that monetary policy is conducted in accordance with the law and the intentions of the democratically appointed government authorities. What is involved therefore is not at all complete independence. The Government authorities naturally exercise control of how the Riksbank performs its work. We on the Executive Board of the Bank have also responded to the consequences of this independence by the way in which we have organised the monetary policy decision-making process.

The savings banks with their strong local implantation and closeness to and knowledge of  5  BIS Review 44/2000  customers should be able to play an important role here. Detailed personal knowledge is an unbeatable weapon in competition. In conclusion With my speech, I have wished to contribute to increasing understanding of and support for the objectives and tasks delegated to us who have been appointed to manage the Riksbank. I believe it is particularly important to create clarity in the sometimes exaggerated view of the import of the Riksbank’s independent position. It is my definite view, given the control the government authorities have over the Riksbank and the openness that characterises our activity, that the demands made in a democracy on an authority responsible for a branch of economic policy are well satisfied. BIS Review 44/2000  6
It needs to address the broader issues revolving around building public awareness and confidence, promoting greater convenience; reviewing business and operating practices and finally, addressing the commercial interfaces between the customers and the service providers. Allow me to take this opportunity to elaborate on these issues. Ladies and Gentlemen, E-payment increases operational efficiency and improves productivity levels through expedient payments and receipts of funds as well as through the reduction or redeployment of resources used for handling cash and cheques. Whilst the migration to e-payment may require considerable investment and effort to provide the enabling infrastructure, the use of e-payments provide consumers with greater convenience and security that would result in cost savings in the long run. In this regard, it is important for the financial institutions and payment service providers to provide more widespread access points for electronic payment services via multiple channels, including the automated teller machines, the point-of-sale terminals, the gated toll and parking gantries and through the network channels and devices, such as the Internet and the mobile phones. Needless to say, the payment products and services need to be continuously enhanced to meet the changing needs of the consumers. BIS Review 84/2005  1  In addition, the efforts to increase the use of e-payments will not only hinge on the capacity of the service providers to ensure that e-payment services are convenient, but also secure. In the area of fraud prevention, the industry would need to be constantly vigilant to maintain consumers'confidence.

The role of the central bank in this process is the comfortable one of a knowledgeable observer, posing relevant questions in working groups and committees and pointing out inadequacies in suggested solutions. There is much to say about this process, but I shall have to leave it for a different occasion. 2. Day-to-day oversight  The second strand of financial stability work is the day-to-day oversight. This may be described as resting on three pillars: •  the first pillar is the supervision of individual banks,  •  the second pillar is the surveillance of systemic stability,  •  and the third pillar is payment system oversight. The first pillar is clearly the responsibility of the supervisors, whether they are a separate FSA or, as in many countries, a department within a central bank. The supervisors collect data from the banks, analyse these data and make on-site inspections. Prudential supervision performed by a competent authority must be the basis for all day-to-day oversight. The second pillar is the joint responsibility of the FSA and central bank. The division of responsibility is really one of perspective. While the FSA bases its work on individual institutions, the central bank looks at the banking system as a whole and attempts to assess the risks that could arise in it both in the short and the long run. Of course, there is overlap in the tasks of the FSA and the central bank, but it is often fruitful to approach a problem from somewhat different angles.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  With only a few large export industries, changes in Norway’s terms of trade have a greater impact on our economy than on other economies in our region. In the early 2000s, international prices moved in our favour. The fall in oil prices over the past couple of years has changed the picture. We are now faced with the negative implications of a largely oildependent Norwegian economy. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  It is not the first time Norway’s terms of trade have taken a turn for the worse. The same thing happened after the First World War and in the 1980s, with severe repercussions for the Norwegian economy both times. The experience gained from these periods has contributed to shaping today’s monetary policy framework. The road from the silver standard to today’s inflation targeting regime has not been without bumps. It is fair to say that monetary policy in the Bank’s first 100 years was fairly successful. The prevailing environment of hyperinflation and a loss of confidence in the value of the currency posed a challenge, but after full silver redemption had been established in 1842, the Bank was able to stand by its promise to honour its own banknotes, first in silver, then in gold. This policy had a stabilising effect on prices. The period is referred to as the heyday of stable money. This period of stability came to an abrupt halt when the First World War broke out.

Norwegian banks have made good use of the solid earnings and low loan losses of recent years. Banks have built up their capital and adapted to new buffer requirements. The buffers can be used in the event of a pronounced economic downturn. Banks will then be able to absorb loan losses without a significant reduction in new lending. The build-up of financial imbalances can be difficult to identify. Financial crises can occur suddenly and unexpectedly. When they do occur, the banking system must be solid. Most regulatory components should be as stable as possible. The aim of macroprudential supervision cannot be to fine-tune the economy over the business cycle. But when financial turbulence occurs, the authorities must be prepared to act quickly and in concert. In Norway, the Ministry of Finance has the overriding responsibility for macroprudential supervision. It is natural that the political authorities make decisions regarding the framework and permanent regulations. It would be an advantage to delegate the responsibility for timevarying instruments to an independent authority with a view to ensuring effective implementation and predictability over time. Conclusion After two decades that can be described as a golden age, the Norwegian economy is heading for a demanding period. We have always known that the long oil-driven expansion would come to an end, either because the activity level would pass the peak, or because oil prices would fall. We have now reached that juncture. The challenges are twofold.
But, the auditors failed to make that alert, because at that time, the audit programmes were confined to a simple financial compliance audit only. What the auditors should look for Since a central bank is a systemically important institution in an economy, the auditors of central banks should take extra care when the accounts of central banks are audited. The old maxim relating to the role of auditors is relevant here: “an auditor is a watchdog and not a blood hound”. Accordingly, auditors are required to keep vigil on central banking activities and alert the relevant parties when there are signs of risks emerging. The central bank management and the legislators should take serious note of such alerts and take appropriate corrective and protective measures. What are the signs of distress that auditors should look for? First of all, a sign immediately visible would be the change in the structure of the assets of a central bank from foreign assets to domestic assets. The depletion of foreign reserves drives a central bank to a future risky situation. It will have to borrow abroad from foreign sources in  7  As reported by The New York Times, June 14, 1993. 8  Ibid. 9  Ma. Cyd Tuano-Amador, “Central Banking in the Philippines since 1993”, in Money and Banking in the Philippines, BSP, 2003, p 210  6  BIS Review 58/2009  order to fund the immediate foreign exchange requirements raising both the income risks and foreign reserve risks.

Accordingly, in order to raise its expenditure levels (or alternatively, to provide more funding to the government), it may go back on its tight monetary policy and reflate the economy so as to extract real resources from the public. It, therefore, tries to fool the people by generating inflation without their knowledge. However, the public are also smart and aware that the central bank would reverse the course of its policy by inflating the economy after it has made small gains. This mistrust of the public about the policy actions of a central bank is well revealed by the exceedingly high inflation expectations they normally form about the future trends in inflation. Consequently, they also try to fool the central bank by asking for higher wages, if they are employees, or higher future contract prices, if they are producers, than the normal wage or contract price levels permissible under the now low inflation rate. This battle between the central bank and the people will trap the economy in a high inflation-high wage spiral making it a self-defeating enterprise for both the central bank and the public. The high inflation in the economy now exerts pressure on the exchange rate to depreciate.
1/7  The new target for monetary policy, to aim for a low and stable inflation rate, was announced in January 1993 and applied in terms of the consumer price index (CPI) with effect from 1995. The fact that there was some delay was partly due to the economy having just been exposed to strong inflation impulses, mainly due to the weakening of the krona after the fixed exchange rate was abandoned. The target for monetary policy, which was further manifested by being written into the Sveriges Riksbank Act in 1999, is to “maintain price stability” and the Riksbank’s interpretation of this is that inflation should be retained around 2 per cent a year, measured as the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI). There is also a tolerance interval of plus/minus 1 percentage point around this target. Maintaining inflation at exactly 2 per cent all of the time would hardly be possible and constantly fine-tuning the rate for this purpose would probably risk reinforcing fluctuations in the economy rather than having a stabilising effect. When the Riksbank adjusts the key rate, its repo rate, this affects total demand and ultimately also inflation through various “channels” in the economy – the cost of borrowing, incentives to save and exports and imports, via exchange rate changes. It takes time for an interest rate change to have full effect via these channels; one usually estimates that it takes around 1-2 years. Monetary policy is therefore conducted on the basis of this time horizon.

The NCA also has a very important role in the prevention of pollution and emergency response in the event of spillages. The NCA head office’s Department for Emergency Response is located here in Horten. We at Norges Bank are very proud of the new banknote series – primarily because they are the most secure banknotes we have ever issued, but also because we are very pleased with the choice of motifs and theme. The new banknotes represent quite a significant break with Norwegian banknote tradition. For the first time since the Norwegian krone was introduced in 1875, Norwegian banknotes do not feature the portraits of well-known people. This time we have chosen a different type of motif, but a motif that has one thing in common with portraits: binding Norway together as a nation. The sea, which is the theme of the new banknote series, influences our country in many different ways. The Norwegian people live by the sea and use the sea both as a transport artery and for recreation. The sea is a source of well-being, welfare and prosperity. On the reverse side of the 500-krone banknote, the faint outline of an oil platform can be seen, symbolising an industry that has helped to raise the level of prosperity in Norway in recent decades. But the sea was also important before the oil age. Cod, shown on the new 200-krone banknote, has been one of our most important export products for centuries and still is today.
Suffice it to say that it was a game of two halves. And, far from a boring goalless draw, it turned out to be a rather exciting and dramatic game, full of incident, with a red card or two and a passionate and at times justifiably angry crowd. We shall have to wait for the historians of tomorrow to file the full match report. Instead, tonight I want to focus on the twin challenges of engineering a recovery and reforming the financial system. I want to look back on the huge amount that has been done, and look forward to the unfinished business on both fronts, much of it for the Bank of England. I shall also tell you a story about the Governor of the Bank of England, the Governor of the Bank of Canada and a certain Mr Osborne. But that comes later. Since 2008, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has gone to extraordinary lengths to stabilise the economy and support growth and employment. In fact, we have pursued what I have called the “paradox of policy”: doing in the short run, by encouraging spending through an unprecedentedly loose monetary policy, the opposite of what we need to do in the long run, which is to raise national saving. But that has been necessary to prevent an even worse recession, and without similar action from other central banks the world might have experienced a major depression. Now there are clear signs that a recovery in the UK, albeit modest, is underway.

Governments, regulators, prosecutors and non-executive directors have all struggled to come to terms with firms that pose a risk to taxpayers, cannot be prosecuted because of their systemic importance, and are difficult to manage because of their size and complexity. It is not in our national interest to have banks that are too big to fail, too big to jail, or simply too big. Solving these problems is the work of a generation, and I hope that the financial community will rise to this challenge and not shrink from it. The City as a whole does merit trust. And, when the historians look back on this period many years from now, they will conclude that although we were not wiser than the financiers of the past, we did learn and we reformed, and the country benefitted and prospered as a result. As I leave the scene, there is undoubtedly much unfinished business for my successor. I am delighted that Mark Carney will be the next Governor. He brings a new generation of leadership to the Bank, as well as enormous experience from his time as a central bank governor and his role in steering the Financial Stability Board. He has my wholehearted best wishes for his term as Governor. Mark is, however, not the first Canadian to have been in the frame for the Governorship of the Bank of England. The very first Governor of the Bank of Canada, Graham Towers, was put forward by Keynes as a successor to Montagu Norman.
The Federal Council has rejected the initiative without a counterproposal. It maintains that a sovereign money system would be an experiment for which there are no comparable models in other countries, and would carry risks for the Swiss economy. The implementation of the sovereign money idea would entail a complete restructuring of today’s monetary system. This  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  would give rise to great uncertainty, could jeopardise the financial centre and thus damage Switzerland as a whole. The Federal Council also fears that the sovereign money system would harm lending and restrict the SNB’s ability to conduct monetary policy. We share the Federal Council’s concerns. A feeling of disquiet about the existing financial system is not enough reason for a radical overhaul. It is also difficult to predict what impact such an experiment would have on Switzerland as a business location. Moreover, the SNB’s independence would be undermined if we had to distribute new money directly to the state or to private households. The SNB would become a political football and the fulfilment of our mandate would be hampered. Conclusion Let me conclude: the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate did not plunge Switzerland into recession as many had feared. The economy actually grew slightly in 2015, despite appreciation of the Swiss franc and a hesitant recovery in the international economy. The main reason for this growth is that Swiss companies and employees actively exploited optimisation potential and showed great flexibility.

2001 = 100 150  Norges Bank Economic perspectives 15 february 2018  150  Five percent most productive firms Other firms  140  140  130  130  120  120  110  110  100  100  90 2001  2003  2005  2007  2009  2011  90 2013  1) Defined as firms in sectors 45 – 82 (excluding 64 – 68) in NACE Rev. 2. Source: OECD  In the past decade, the fallout from the financial crisis has probably had a dampening impact on productivity growth. Weak economic growth and heightened uncertainty have reduced businesses’ willingness to invest. In addition, banks in many countries held back on lending for a long period. This may have discouraged new entrants and slowed the replacement of outdated production equipment. The legacies of the financial crisis are now fading. Investment is picking up across countries. This could lift productivity ahead. But this will not materialise of its own accord. It is up to us to take advantage of the possibilities provided by technological innovation. Economic restructuring must continue. A flexible labour market, high education levels and a solid social safety net are preconditions for successful restructuring. In Norway, much of this is in place, but we too must be prepared to adapt to changing circumstances. In addition, nature has endowed us with advantages that it will be important to build on in the years to come.