samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
And the New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has declined to a level that indicates supply chain pressures are now actually somewhat lower than normal.6 At the same time, the March price data indicate some moderation in overall rent inflation. And rents for new leases have been showing slower rates of increases, which should bring down shelter inflation in coming months. This is important because shelter inflation had been a significant driver of higher inflation over the past year. But the most persistent area of inflation is in core services excluding housing, which has been running around 4-1/2 percent since last August . This is driven by a continued imbalance in overall supply and demand, and it will take the longest to bring down. Bringing Back the Balance In "The Rise of Skywalker," Anakin urged Rey to "bring back the balance." The FOMC has been taking strong actions to do just that. Last week, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1/4 percent, its tenth consecutive rate increase. In its post-meeting statement, the FOMC indicated that "in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.

Increasing computing powers, together with accessibility of data and applications of new technologies, have contributed to an increased commercialisation of Regtech solutions available to the banking industry. 13.Recognising the growing need for, and developments of, Regtech solutions, we at the HKMA consider it timely to work with the banking industry and the technology community to further facilitate the adoption of Regtech in Hong Kong. To help develop the Regtech ecosystem here, the HKMA will open the Fintech Supervisory Sandbox to Regtech projects or ideas raised by banks or tech firms. I am also pleased to say that the HKMA will soon launch a series of Regtech-specific projects, through its Banking Made Easy initiative, focusing on four areas: (a) AML/CFT surveillance technologies; (b) Regtech for prudential risk management and compliance; (c) Study on machine-readable regulations; and (d) HKMA’s exploration of Suptech. 14.Let me explain each initiative in greater detail. AML/CFT surveillance technologies 15.About AML/CFT surveillance, one should bear in mind that the financial system is the gateway through which criminals must pass to make crime pay. The reality is that financial system is becoming more efficient because of technology. Efficiency brings enhanced services to customers, which are delivered through channels and at speeds we could have only dreamed of a few years ago. But these developments can equally be attractive to criminals. 16.This is where banks should come in. Banks are expected to be on the frontline of combatting financial crimes given Hong Kong’s role in the global economy.
But rather than giving a blow-by-blow account of events, I want instead to focus on what I see as the key underlying economic forces. How could what appeared initially to be little more than an over-extension of loans to a high-risk subset of US households end up generating total financial sector losses in the advanced economies currently estimated by the IMF to be in the region of $ trillion and an output gap that is expected to reach nearly 6% of GDP in 2010? And while there were a few Wise Owls 1 who saw trouble coming, why did most of the profession fail to spot the dangers? Is that because we were locked into an inappropriate paradigm? If so, is the time ripe for a Schumpeterian “gale of creative destruction” in the subject? The credit boom Let me start by recalling a few facts regarding the credit boom that preceded the crisis. During the decade preceding the crisis there was a substantial increase in the ratio of household and business debt to GDP in a number of advanced economies, particularly the United States, the United Kingdom and Spain; see the left-hand panel of Fig. 1. A striking feature of this period was also the increased use of the credit markets by the financial sector to fund its activities, rather than relying on the traditional medium of deposits; that is illustrated in the right-hand panel for the United States. This build up in debt accompanied a wave of financial innovation.

On the one hand, economists at the Bank for International Settlements and others (e.g. Borio and White, 2003; Cecchetti, Genberg and Wadhwani, 2002) advocated “leaning against the wind” by raising interest rates above that apparently warranted by inflation and activity. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve espoused a policy of “benign neglect” coupled with aggressive relaxation in the event that asset prices fell sharply (see e.g. Greenspan, 2002; Bernanke and Gertler, 2001) on the grounds that identifying an asset price bubble in its early stages was difficult and trying to deflate an established one was dangerous. The events of the past couple of years have clearly tipped the balance in favour of taking pre-emptive action. And in a second-best world, where monetary policy is the only instrument available to cool a credit/asset-price boom, then that may well make sense. Indeed, an inflation-targeting central bank ought to be willing to undershoot its target in the medium term, if it thereby improves its chance of meeting the target further out through the avoidance of a disruptive bust (Bean, 2003). But monetary policy is a blunt weapon for this purpose, and raising interest rates enough to cool a credit/asset-price boom that is in full swing is likely to involve substantial collateral damage to real activity. Instead, with an additional objective in the shape of credit growth/asset prices one really needs another instrument that has a stronger and more direct impact on credit growth and asset price inflation than monetary policy.
A related question is whether the observed productivity miracle was reflected in returns to the factors of production in finance. Chart 12 decomposes total GVA of financial corporations into income flowing to labour (defined to include employees only) and income flowing to capital. Broadly speaking, the rise in GVA is equally split between the returns to labour (employee compensation) and to capital (gross operating surplus). The miracle has been reflected in the returns to both labour and capital, if not in the quantities of these factors employed. For labour, these high returns are evident both in cross-section and time-series data. Chart 13 shows average weekly earnings across a range of sectors in the UK in 2007. BIS Review 95/2010  7  Financial intermediation is at the top of the table, with weekly average earnings roughly double those of the whole-economy median. This differential widened during this century, broadly mirroring the accumulation of leverage within the financial sector (Chart 14). The time-series evidence is in some respects even more dramatic. Philippon and Reshef (2009) have undertaken a careful study of “excess” wages in the US financial industry since the start of the previous century, relative to a benchmark wage. Chart 15 plots their measure of excess wages. This shows a dramatic spike upwards which commenced in the early 1980s, but which exploded from the 1990s onwards. The only equivalent wage spike was in the run-up to the Great Crash in 1929. Philippon and Reshef attribute both of these wage spikes to financial deregulation.

Reinhart, C M and Rogoff, K (2009), This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press. Schularick M and Taylor A M (2009), “Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870–2008”, NBER Working Paper Series No. 15512. Sheppard, D K (1971), The Growth and Role of U.K. Financial Institutions 1880–1962, Methuen. Solow, R M (1957), “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function”, Review of Economics and Statistics 39(3), pp. 312–320. Wadhwani, S (2010), “What mix of monetary policy and regulation is best for stabilising the economy?”, Future of Finance and the Theory That Underpins It. Wang, J C (2003), “Loanable Funds, Risk, and Bank Service Output”, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Working Paper Series No. 03–4. Wang, J C, Basu, A and Fernald J G (2004), A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output, Invited for conference volume on Price Index Concepts and Measurement, Conference on Research on Income and Wealth (CRIW), available at http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/wp/wp2004/wp047.htm Wood, G and Kabiri, A (2010), Firm Stability and System Stability: The Regulatory Delusion, Paper prepared for a conference on Managing Systemic Risk at the University of Warwick 7th–9th April 2010. 16  BIS Review 95/2010
Svein Gjedrem: Government intervention and moral hazard in the financial sector Opening address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the conference “Government intervention and moral hazard in the financial sector”, Oslo, 2 September 2010. *  *  *  It is my pleasure to wish the participants of this research conference welcome to Oslo and Norges Bank. I also welcome participants to our annual financial industry day. This year we have chosen to make that event an integrated part of the research conference. We believe the topic of this research conference should be of particular interest to practitioners. We have also put together the program for this first day of the conference with practitioners in mind. The topic that you will be discussing during the conference is very important for our work at the Norges Bank. Moral hazard in the financial sector is a main concern for the design of government regulation and for the planning of government intervention in periods of financial distress. Norges Bank is not the bank supervisor in this country. The Financial Supervisory Authority is a separate institution. But Norges Bank does have a general responsibility for the smooth functioning of the financial system: We have what are now being termed macroprudential responsibilities. We have been doing macroprudential supervision and published our findings in our Financial Stability Reports since 1997. We were thus one of the first central banks to publish such reports. Our semi-annual reports have been gradually improved over time.

The European Central Bank In this respect, judging by past experience, I am confident that if and when institutional or political changes do become necessary, the EU is and will be able to rise to this challenge. The introduction of the euro and the creation of a new institution, the ECB, which is responsible for the single monetary policy, provide clear evidence that this is already the case. Let me briefly discuss some features of the ECB, which has a clear mandate to focus on maintaining price stability in the euro area as a whole. In fact, in the euro area, monetary policy cannot be tailored to the specific needs of a country or region. The single monetary policy is governed by the decision-making bodies of the ECB. These are the Governing Council and the Executive Board. They may be considered broadly comparable with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Like the FOMC, the Governing Council of the ECB is responsible for taking key monetary policy decisions, including the setting of official interest rates. Whereas the FOMC is composed of the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and four Reserve Bank presidents, the Governing Council is composed of the members of the Executive Board of the ECB and the Governors of the national central banks of the euro area. The Governors naturally bring with them their own country-specific expertise and experience.
At this point, I would like to emphasize that we closely monitor pricing behavior as inflation hovers around high levels, albeit for a temporary period. I would like to hereby remind you that we will provide public with the updated evaluations and forecasts on medium-term inflation outlook along with possible risks and policy measures, more extensively in the Inflation Report to be published on 29 April. BIS Review 68/2010  13  Distinguished Guests, 37. Throughout 2009, as the Central Bank, we focused on policies oriented towards containing the adverse effects of the crisis on the economic activity and on financial stability while also overseeing price stability. Thanks to the experience gained from domestic crises in the recent past, we were able to make prompt and effective decisions, thus we were able to do our part to minimize the adverse impacts of the global crisis. In this period, the soundness of the financial system in addition to the relatively limited deterioration in the risk premium provided monetary policy with an extra room for maneuver. 38. Accordingly, envisioning that undershooting the inflation target at year-end has been more likely, we continued the rate cut cycle that we initiated in November 2008 by pursuing a front-loaded monetary policy in early 2009.

The industry structure of our economy has changed. A growing number of firms, and not only in the engineering industry, have targeted the oil industry. Labour shedding in some sectors has freed up labour for other uses. Chart: High wages in the oil industry  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Oil companies have had the capacity and the willingness to pay. Tax rules have favoured investment spending and earnings have been solid. Oil company employees have been wage winners here in Norway. A state-of-the-art oil service industry has emerged. New products and technological solutions have been developed. For many firms, the contracts on the Norwegian continental shelf have been a springboard to new export markets. Chart: Growth in oil investment High oil prices and a profitable petroleum production industry have led to record-high oil investment in recent years. The level of investment in 2014 was equivalent to that of all the domestic non-oil industries combined. The positive spillovers to the oil service industry and other firms have been substantial. Employment has remained high and unemployment low, even when the financial crisis hit in 2008. A large share of the business sector and the labour market is now linked to the oil industry. A relatively small number of jobs are directly involved in oil and gas production. But if account is taken of all the suppliers to the petroleum sector, about 1 in 9 jobs in Norway, a total of about 300 000, were linked to the oil industry in 20141.
Tuan-tuan dan Puan-puan, Kami amat berbesar hati dengan kesudian Yang Amat Berhormat Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi untuk melancarkan Laman Informasi Nasihat dan Khidmat Bank Negara Malaysia atau Bank Negara Malaysia LINK pada hari ini. Kami mengambil kesempatan dari kehadiran Yang Amat Berhormat Dato' Seri di taklimat ekonomi di Bank Negara Malaysia pada pagi ini untuk merasmikan Bank Negara Malaysia LINK. Penubuhan Bank Negara Malaysia LINK merupakan komitmen Bank Negara Malaysia untuk meningkatkan lagi perkhidmatan yang diberikan kepada orang ramai dan membantu meningkatkan akses pembiayaan kepada perusahaan kecil dan sederhana. Perasmian ini amat bermakna kerana Yang Amat Berhormat Perdana Menteri merupakan peneraju kepada peningkatan sistem penyampaian sektor awam. Yang Amat Berhormat Dato' Seri juga telah memainkan peranan penting dalam usaha meningkatkan potensi perusahaan kecil dan sederhana sebagai enjin pertumbuhan ekonomi negara kita. Ladies and Gentlemen, Bank Negara Malaysia has always been in direct contact with the public. The Central Bank receives walk-in members of the public seeking information in relation to our operations, policies and regulations as well as those who seek redress on financial issues. The SME Unit in Bank Negara Malaysia also has direct contact with the SMEs relating to issues of access to financing. The establishment of Bank Negara Malaysia LINK is to allow the interface with members of the public as well as the SMEs to be centralised and conducted in a more efficient and effective manner. The premises of the Bank Negara Malaysia LINK was previously the Kuala Lumpur branch of Bank Negara Malaysia.

It must be acknowledged that no regulation can prevent financial institutions from encountering difficulties. A new regulatory framework must therefore ensure that banks bear the ultimate responsibility for risk undertaken by them. Regulatory compliance will then be in their own interest. We can never fully insulate the financial system from shocks. But we can increase our resilience. One of the most important things we can do is to keep our own house in order – by preventing major imbalances from building up in the economy or in the financial system, and by ensuring that the financial system in general is robust. Thank you for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
In 2022, Norges Bank decided to raise the countercyclical capital buffer rate for banks to 2.5 percent, effective from March 2023, which brings the rate back to its pre-pandemic level. Norges Bank continuously and closely monitors financial market developments and has a contingency framework for taking measures required to safeguard financial stability if needed. Let me conclude. The current high rate of inflation follows a long period of low and stable inflation in our part of the world. Some of the driving forces that kept inflation low in the decades before the pandemic may be going into reverse. Globalisation has been met with gradually growing opposition. Demographic trends are changing. Combined, this could make the job of keeping inflation low more demanding. 4/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  The global economy will increasingly be impacted by climate change and the need to reduce emissions. Understanding the economic effects of climate change and the energy transition is essential for making forecasts and the right trade-offs in the conduct of monetary policy. This is therefore defined as a focus area in Norges Bank's Strategy 2025. The main contribution monetary policy can make to the transition is to ensure low and stable inflation. A flexible and forward-looking inflation targeting regime, where we look through short-term inflation fluctuations, is a good basis for addressing the structural changes we are facing. A small open economy like Norway will be exposed to shocks, as we have acutely experienced in recent years.

Economic policy cannot shield the economy totally from shocks that may arise, but can dampen their impact. A framework that provides monetary policy predictability makes it easier to succeed. Thank you for your attention. 5/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
In the light of experience and of the growing importance of cross border financial market infrastructure, particularly CCPs, these standards are now being reinforced in two main areas. First, CPMI-IOSCO has consulted on more granular standards for CCP resilience covering governance, stress testing, coverage and margin, as well as CCP recovery actions. The aim is to ensure both higher standards and greater consistency between jurisdictions. Second, as part of its work to address the problem of ‘Too Big To Fail’, the Financial Stability Board is developing standards for the resolution of CCPs, to ensure that a failure of a CCP could be resolved in an orderly way. Given their role, CCPs are by design systemic and need to ensure they handle risk very prudently, particularly the risks from the disorderly failure of their key counterparties – which typically consist of the systemically important global banks. Ensuring that these banks are themselves able to fail safely will reduce the risks to the CCPs of which they are members. But in the event of such failure, the authorities need to ensure that the CCP’s own recovery actions do not further amplify the stresses already in the system and that losses are apportioned and addressed in the most orderly way. 12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  12  This month the FSB published draft guidance on CCP resolution and resolution planning.

Second, although there is purely national infrastructure in most countries, the main pieces of cross border financial infrastructure are truly global. For example:   CLS operating out of New York processes nearly a million FX transactions in 18 currencies for over 60 members worldwide on a daily basis, with an average daily value of $    4  The SWIFT messaging service based in Belgium services more than 11,000 institutions worldwide, operating in over 200 jurisdictions. In 2015 it processed approximately 6.1bn messages.   Euroclear, based in Belgium, provides services in 51 settlement currencies for more than 2,000 clients in over 90 countries.   5  6  Clearstream, based in Luxembourg, serves 2,500 customers in 110 countries, settling more than 250,000 transactions daily. 7  4  https://www.cls-group.com/Membership/Community/Pages/CLSMembers.aspx https://www.cls-group.com/About/Pages/default.aspx https://www.cls-group.com/MC/Pages/NewsArticle.aspx?nid=187 5 $ 6 https://www.euroclear.com/dam/PDFs/Corporate/Euroclear-Credentials.pdf 7 http://www.clearstream.com/clearstream-en/about-clearstream/who-we-are 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4    CME Group in Chicago has customers in more than 150 countries and handles 3 billion contracts worth approximately $ quadrillion annually.   8  Eurex Clearing in Germany has more than 180 clearing members in 17 countries, clearing contracts denominated principally in Euro, and Swiss Franc.   9  LCH SwapClear clears more than 95% of the global cleared OTC interest rate swap market, has over 100 clearing members, over half of which are based outside of the EEA, and clears in 18 currencies.