samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Specifically, as reported by the IMF, in 2019 global debt, that is public plus private debt stock, was worth $ trillion or 228% of global GDP, whilst after the outbreak of the pandemic crisis, global debt reached $ trillion at the end of 2020 or 257% of GDP. In 2021, total world debt declined 10 percentage points of GDP, to 247 percent of GDP or $ 235 trillion. This drop mainly reflected strong real GDP growth, high inflation and the withdrawal of COVID-19 fiscal support measures. The above observations relating to high levels of private and public debt cannot be ignored by governments and regulatory authorities because they may present a number of challenges to economic agents and policymakers in terms of debt financing capacity and debt sustainability. These challenges can be exacerbated by exogenous factors such as the Ukraine war. 2/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  In general, Governments should aim at containing fiscal deficit, which is the accumulation of new debt. Where the recovery is strong and balance sheets are in a healthy shape, they could scale back fiscal support more quickly. Governments should also prioritize targeted and not horizontal fiscal assistance during the recovery path while adhering to credible, medium-term fiscal frameworks, not counteracting in that way central banks' monetary policy decisions to control inflation. In addition, Governments should move faster on key structural reforms.

Mr Gehrig focuses on special structural characteristics involved in solving the Year 2000 problem for the financial sector in Switzerland Speech by Prof Bruno Gehrig, a member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Global 2000 Coordinating Group Meeting in Montreux on 30 April 1999. I am most delighted to be your luncheon speaker today and thank you for your invitation. I am sure that Montreux provides you with a highly stimulating environment for today’s Global 2000 meeting. As you are no doubt aware, you are leading the way in tackling the Year 2000 issue. I would like to thank you for your extremely important and valuable commitment, and I am certain that I also speak on behalf of my colleagues from other central banks, bank supervisors and - even more importantly countless customers in the financial industry. On the threshold of the third millennium we are indeed confronted with most complex and - in many regards - unique challenges. In terms of methodology, I believe it is essential to realise that we are dealing with complex network problems which cannot be solved on the basis of the behaviour patterns of market and competition we are all familiar with. In this context, external or third-party effects are in fact so significant that remarkable collective effort is necessary in order to minimise potential damages resulting from malfunctions. This applies both to the preparatory work and the challenge to overcome frictions which - in spite of our best efforts - will be unavoidable.
Later this vulnerability became a boon for Sweden, as the strong upturn in global trade after the crisis benefited Sweden more than many other countries due to its high export share. But the recovery was not only led by exports. As I said initially, Sweden was well prepared to confront the crisis as public finances were strong, unlike much of the euro area and the United States. In both these regions the budget deficit averaged 2 per cent of GDP in the  1  For a more detailed discussion of the Swedish fiscal consolidation see Göran Persson (1996), “The Swedish Experience in Reducing Budget Deficits and Debt”, Economic Review, First Quarter 1996, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  10 years leading up to the recent crisis, while Sweden had, on average, a surplus of over 1 per cent; in line with the surplus target I mentioned previously. Strong public finances limit the need for fiscal restraint during and after a crisis. While in other countries the fiscal stimulus needed during the crisis was widespread, in Sweden the fiscal stimulus was more targeted to the labour market and to those sectors that were more strongly hit. In addition to this, Sweden has had a high level of household saving and a relatively strong increase in disposable incomes in recent years. This combination has also enabled a high rate of growth in private consumption during and after the crisis.

All these preconditions were weaker in the United States and the euro area. Lastly, Sweden does not have the major structural problems that have arisen in the economies of those countries hit by a “boom-bust” cycle on the housing market – problems that have been reflected in a substantial weakening of public finances. House prices recovered after a slight turndown in connection with the crisis and are now at a higher level than before the crisis began. While we continue to follow developments in the Swedish housing market, structural factors, such as a low level of construction and traditionally low levels of credit losses on Swedish mortgages, reduce the likelihood of major price falls in the near future. What have we learnt from the crisis? It would be wrong to focus solely on the factors that explain Sweden’s relatively strong recovery. There were also a number of vulnerabilities in the Swedish institutional set up and banking system which threatened to increase the severity and length of the downturn. The major Swedish banks are heavily reliant on international funding and liquidity in these markets fell sharply following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. To protect the banking system, the Riksbank provided general liquidity assistance in the form of loans in SEK and USD at long maturities. This liquidity assistance was substantial: it peaked at around 15 per cent of GDP and lasted for over two years. Some Swedish banks were also exposed to significant risks through their operations in the Baltic countries.
The broader objectives of the reforms were to reduce transaction costs, increase efficiency, ensure safety and reduce credit, liquidity and systemic risks. Payment modes are wide ranging. Cash is the common mode of payment, because it has a finality in settlement of a transaction and is readily and legally acceptable as a medium of exchange. However, the inconvenience of carrying cash and increased security threats have encouraged the move towards other payment media. Non-cash payment modes are considered to be more secured payment instruments, but paper-based instruments like cheques, drafts and travellers cheques are also not so convenient instruments. In modern times, card and electronic payments are treated as the most convenient and safer instruments, although they too are subject to certain risks, card frauds in particular and technology related issues. There are two systemically important payment systems in Sri Lanka. They are the high value and time critical payment system used by banks, primary dealers, the Central Bank and the corporates and the cheque-based retail payment system which is used by all segments of the population. Reforming these two systemically important payment systems were necessary to mitigate settlement risks, increase efficiency and enhance accessibility. The reforms were also in line with the public policy objectives which require attention of the Government and regulatory authorities. BIS Review 66/2006  1  The implementation of the Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS) and the Scripless Securities Settlement Systems (SSSS) with a SWIFT link was the most significant reform effected in recent times.

In implementing the road map, it is vital that all stakeholders in the payment system understands the significance of payment systems, their impact on financial stability and take ownership and leadership. Most central banks at some point or other have been owners, operators, catalysts, overseers and users of the payment system. Over the years, central banks have given up their ownership and  2  BIS Review 66/2006  operator’s role and, in some cases, even the catalyst role. Banks and financial institutions and even the corporates should play an important role in shaping the national payment system in Sri Lanka. Let me conclude now by giving an important message. Payment reforms help to adopt best practices by all stakeholders. With or without payment system reforms, banks and financial institutions should be able to meet their payment obligations. Some of the benefits enjoyed by banks and customers over the years will no longer be there under the CIT system. The public too has to make adjustments in their payment practices and ensure that there are funds in their accounts when cheques are issued. All stakeholders should change their past practices and fall in line with reforms which are aimed at improving facilities. Once again, I thank the Royal Bankers Club for inviting me and extend my good wishes for all its future activities. BIS Review 66/2006  3
As part of this, the close cooperation of the central banks would enable a swift response if it is required. Thirdly is to assimilate the Shariah values in the realisation of benefit (Masalih) to the relevant stakeholders. Islamic finance industry may, by according attention to the preservation of good relationship with the customers and relevant stakeholders, avoid extreme solutions when severe deterioration has taken place. Consistent with this is the principle in Islamic finance to promote justice, fairness and shared responsibility. The focus of Islamic finance thus transcends beyond just the pursuit of growth and monetary performance by emphasising ethical market conduct practices. Central to this is the adoption of a comprehensive consumer protection framework. Conclusion In shaping the robust growth of Islamic finance, the strategic direction of the industry moving forward needs to be accompanied by the efficient implementation of the legal, regulatory and supervisory regime, including having in place a crisis prevention and management framework. While recognising the strengths of Islamic finance and the opportunities it presents, key to this is ensuring the essential features of Islamic finance are preserved so as to retain its inherent resilience and stability. The robust growth of Islamic finance has been from the significant interest from both the Muslim and non-Muslim communities. This would not occur if Islamic finance was not able to meet the growing and differentiated financial requirements, if it were not an efficient form of financial intermediation and if it were not competitive.

The increased globalisation of Islamic finance and its greater integration with the international financial system increases the exposure of the system to contagion effect from such developments. In the dynamics of a financial crisis in the conventional financial system, this would be referred to as the second round effects. The first round effects is when developments within the financial system triggers the financial crisis which in turn impacts the real economy. The second round effects is when the resulting slower growth causes further strain to the financial sector. The experience has shown that when such crisis is not contained, the consequent deterioration in economic conditions results in a worsening of the financial crisis. For this reason, resolution has to take place quickly. For Malaysia, in the 1997-98 crisis, every effort was taken to give attention to financial sector resolution so as to prevent the spiral that could have set in as economic activity became affected by the financial crisis. In this indirect manner, Islamic finance would be affected by such financial turmoil. Slower economic growth and the reduction in the global liquidity would affect those institutions that are heavily reliant on a business model that focuses on real estate and asset finance. Islamic financial institutions would also be exposed to increased inventory risk due to the increased volatility and the reduction in asset prices.
Let me qualify my view by saying that the reality is much more complicated. So let me go quickly over some salient details of the euro crisis and its current impact on Asia. A great deal of uncertainty, much of it induced by lack of policy clarity, surrounds the euro crisis. This is reflected by how global FX markets have been in turmoil as investors fled euro and Asian emerging markets assets for safe havens. The Thai baht was not spared from this turbulence and experienced high volatility and bouts of weakening pressure. However, investors eventually returned to emerging markets in Asia as yields in advanced economies moved lower and Asian fundamentals improved amid slowing inflation pressure. In Thailand, government bonds, in particular, have proven attractive. In fact, foreign participation in both bond and equity is now above pre-Lehman levels. However for equity, the rate of return was  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  slow of late; net inflows were negative last year but are now slightly positive for the second half of this year. Amid all this turbulence, all this back-and-forth, the baht fluctuated in tandem, first depreciating in the first quarter of the year up until July and then appreciating somewhat. This trend was punctuated by bouts of volatility each time euro policy faced implementation difficulties once push comes to shove and member nations have to make the difficult tradeoff between national interests and supra-national interests. But back to the question of how the euro crisis will play out.

To grow out of the crisis and survive the shocks from outside, Thailand must look within and unleash domestic engines of growth. Long-term investment in productive infrastructure is one key engine of growth. Another is domestic structural change spurred by two drivers of change in the region. The first driver of change is growth in China and the attendant rise of the Chinese middle class and demand for a broader range of imported goods and services. Chinese exports will also grow in sophistication. The second driver of change is trade liberalization in the region – such as free trade agreements with China and India as well as the ASEAN Economic Community, or  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  AEC. AEC, in particular, goes beyond free trade and also has the potential to foster not only goods and services integration but also cross-border labor and investment flows. Because of the sheer size of these markets – China, India and AEC – the regional pattern of production will change considerably to cater to new demands while leveraging on new comparative advantages and supply chain synergies. Uncompetitive firms have to either upgrade themselves, or close down and free up labor resources to more competitive firms. This reallocation process implies that the country makes better use of labor resources and achieves higher productivity. Ongoing financial sector reform will also build financial sector resiliency. Thailand’s Financial Sector Master Plan, now in its second phase, continues, and focuses on liberalization through increased competition, raising efficiency, and strengthening the financial infrastructure.
3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  After all, as moving forward requires the economy to consider not just cutting edge, but also bleeding edge ideas and technologies, we need to start thinking about novel and unconventional approaches. Several questions spring to mind. First, how should the government take calculated policy risks, while managing policy failures? In building pathways to high income, ambitious industrial policies, or “moonshot strategies”, will play a key role. With any policy however, there would be uncertainty and possibility of failure. Development economist, Dani Rodrick, called for effective industrial policy to be less on the ability to pick winners, but on knowing when to cut losses. Too low a failure rate could also mean that we are playing it too safe. The objective, hence, should not be to avoid mistakes, but to minimise the cost of mistakes. This will require the Government to build its capacity to account for and quantify the associated risk within the decision framework. Only then can we make smarter, more intelligent bets to get the most bang for the buck. Second, how can the Government learn and execute better? Focus should be as much on process and governance, as it is on the outcomes. While we have achieved leaps and bounds in economic development since our Independence, past reforms also provide important lessons in areas where we must strive to do better. We have had roughly 60-70 blueprints and masterplans over the years; not all have been executed to their maximum potential.

This equilibrium rate has gone down – while in tandem the global economy has had to weather several major shocks, from the Global Financial crisis to the pandemic. Now, low inflation rates are being seen as just as much of a cause for concern and as a result, the target has now been set to 2% – over the medium-term – and the red flags are not only rates above that, but also rates below it. This decision was aimed at the possibility that the persistent low-inflation environment was being exacerbated by ambiguity about the level of the inflation aim and a perception of the aim being asymmetric. This decision was taken after an extensive assessment of the ECB’s unconventional monetary instruments, which looked at which ones were effective in raising output, employment and inflation – as well as how they affected each other. The new symmetric target is straightfoward, clear and unambiguous. This means that it will provide a more solid anchor for longer-term inflation expectations. In practice, it will require especially forceful or persistent monetary policy action in a way to avoid negative deviations from becoming entrenched. There was also discussion during the review with regards to the primary mandate and its context within the Treaty’s requirement to support the general economic and social policies of the European Union. The changes made to the monetary policy strategy will look at both aspects of this spectrum. Of course, the strategy review made other important changes.
Second, the new model, which relies to a great extent on national supervisors, will not entail a decrease in the workload or, therefore, in the staffing needs of the participating countries’ authorities, or in the importance of their work. This will also be the case for the Banco de España. And third, the Banco de España has already made the necessary changes in the organisation of the Directorate General Banking Supervision, to adapt its structure to the 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  needs and arrangements that the SSM requires. Moreover, it has also begun to implement the changes needed in its working methods and systems in order to contribute, as effectively as possible, to the operation of the euro area’s new supervisory structure. But we are still at the early, founding stages of the SSM. And foreseeably for some time, even for some years, adjustments and changes will have to be made to the different components of our supervisory arrangements, both in terms of organisation and of working procedures and staffing levels. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5

12 Short Message Services are also used in the case of many other public services ― in the Philippines, crime victims are able to monitor the progress of investigation using text messages. In Singapore, citizens can order the service of SMS-reminders about dates of payment the road tax, return of books to the library or extension of the passport expiry date. They can also receive medical examination results using SMS. 13 The public sector faces a great challenge of provision of services aimed at the comfort of citizens (customers) rather than at the comfort of clerks, as it used to be for many years. It entails not only the necessity to change the way of communication with citizens, but it also forces public offices to adjust their internal processes and enhance their cooperation. As a consequence, projects such as “any door is good” are launched, whereby each office assumes the responsibility to provide an answer to a received query, even if the query goes beyond its authority. Another project entitled “one case — one contact point” is operated in many countries, under which registration of a new company is possible online, by filling all the necessary forms (for registration, tax, statistical etc. authorities) available on a website and authorizing them by means of the electronic signature. Integration of all the “back office” functions and processes has enabled Estonia to hold the world’s first online elections. In October 2005, more than 9000 Estonians cast their votes in e-elections.
When they do so, it is also inevitable for them to base their conclusions on personal biases, fears and prejudices they have been harbouring in their minds. Such conclusions are tainted by biased or prejudiced views held by the person making the conclusions. Hence, such findings are simply an imposition of personal views on the society and, therefore, fail to explain reality and Nature. Therefore, discoveries made in that manner do not enhance the human knowledge. In this background, it is necessary to build the knowledge base of mankind free from biases, fears and prejudices. This could be attained by pursuing scientific inquiry which bases itself on a set of principles, guidelines and an ethical and moral code that discipline the  BIS Review 161/2008  1  researchers. It should, however, be noted that the conclusions derived through scientific inquiry are not static and permanent. The very nature of scientific inquiry is that conclusions derived from a given research study, as Karl Popper pointed out, should be capable of being refuted by a new inquiry. Hence, results produced by scientific research carry with them the property of refutability and are valid only until a new research study would replace them with new results. In this sense, the knowledge base developed through scientific inquiry could be equated to a reservoir from which water would flow out and fresh water would flow in continuously. But the core knowledge, just like the permanently stored water in the reservoir, would remain intact.

W A Wijewardena: Scientific research – what researchers should do and should not Keynote address by Mr W A Wijewardena, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at the 3rd International Research Conference, organized by the Faculty of Management & Finance, University of Colombo, Colombo, 11 December 2008. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and should not be construed as those of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. *  *  *  A Master Debater has once boasted that he normally employs three ploys to subdue his difficult customers. “When I find that my opponent is not easily surmountable, I use mathematics, philosophy and religion to subdue him”. He has confessed. “Mathematical equations frighten him, philosophical expressions confuse him and religious sayings make him feel guilty. After that, he is an easy prey for the final onslaught”. He has further elaborated triumphantly. The superior property of mathematical equations in frightening intellectual opponents is not without precedent. An example in this connection has been presented by Astro-physicist Carl Sagan in his Broca’s Brain (p. 151). According to the story, the French encyclopaedist Diderot, being an atheist himself, had challenged anyone to prove the existence of God during a visit to Russian Empress Catherine’s court. When he became an embarrassment to everyone, Euler, the master mathematician and also a temporary visitor to the Court, is said to have accepted the challenge. Euler has said, “Sir, (a + bn)/n = x, therefore God exists. Disprove”.