samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell: The progress of migration to SEPA Keynote address by Mrs Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the British Bankers’ Association, 7th Annual Payments Conference, London, 23 November 2009. *  *  *  Thank you for inviting me to speak at the British Bankers' Association on the occasion of the 7th Annual Payments Conference. 140 years ago, on Monday 22 November 1869, one of the world’s fastest, most technically advanced and also most beautiful merchant sailing ships was launched. Designed to be the first ship to bring home the new season’s tea from China to London, the “Cutty Sark” plied the oceans for decades. The ship is still preserved today, and you can marvel at her in Greenwich, just 20 minutes from here. On Monday 2 November 2009, just three weeks ago, the SEPA Direct Debit (SDD) was launched. I will not dare to speculate as to whether it is the world’s fastest, most technically advanced and most beautiful Direct Debit scheme, but the advent of a European direct debit scheme provides a truly new payment service at the European level. We would like to congratulate all those who have taken part in its development, particularly the EPC for their valuable contribution to this success. The SDD complements the SEPA Credit Transfer, which was launched in January 2008. With these two payment products launched, and with the Payment Services Directive (PSD) now in force, SEPA is well in place. However, not yet completed.

In 1980, Odd Aukrust, research director at Statistics Norway said the following about economic developments in Norway: “Unfortunately, there is even less reason for optimism this time. It appears that the competitive position of Norwegian manufacturing will weaken in the coming year. The main problem is that no one controls price developments. With an inflation rate of around 10 per cent a year, no one dares to make investments that could stop this price carousel.” 3 From the second half of the 1980s, the authorities started using monetary policy to control inflation. At the beginning of the 1990s, inflation had fallen, and since 1988, inflation has averaged 2½ per cent. Studies of price developments for all goods and services show that price formation underwent a permanent shift around 1988. 4 A transition occurred from a period of high and unstable inflation to the current period of low and stable inflation. Bringing the rate of inflation down had its costs. In the years from 1988 to 1992, the Norwegian economy experienced the deepest recession of the post-war period. But growth picked up quickly, and the 1990s as a whole were a golden decade. It also appears that the present decade will be favourable. A foundation was laid when the Norwegian authorities took control of inflation. Developments over the past 40 years illustrate that the most important contribution monetary policy can make to sound economic developments in the long term is low and stable inflation. This provides the economy with a nominal anchor.
This has prompted discussions about market access, intellectual property rights and trade balances. Global economic integration is not straightforward, but the shortcomings in today’s framework for global trade must be dealt with through reform and not increased protectionism. New barriers will not help poor regions or those that have been left behind in western economies. For Norway, exports of goods and services account for more than a third of GDP. Norwegian businesses are part of global value chains. This means that protectionist measures can spill over into the Norwegian economy even if Norway is not directly targeted. Chart: We trade mostly with the EU The international framework and trade agreements we have with other countries are essential to the Norwegian economy. The EEA agreement is of particular importance. Thanks to the free flow of goods, services, labour and capital within the EEA area, Norway’s domestic market is about 100 times bigger than it would have been otherwise. A good half of our trade with other countries is with EU countries (Chart 5). Common regulations and product standardisation facilitate market access for Norwegian firms. Norwegian business and industry may soon feel the consequences of Brexit. The UK is an important trading partner. The UK’s exit from the EU means it will also exit the EEA agreement, creating uncertainty for many firms. 2/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  At the same time, international economic cooperation is creaking.

6  For a more detailed analysis of forward rates and surveys as measures of monetary policy expectations see Alsterlind, J. and Dillen, H, “Monetary policy expectations and forward premia”, Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2005:2. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 2 SEK/EUR exchange rate and 5-year interest rate differential in relation to Germany Per cent  Source: Reuters EcoWin. So, what form does the link between the krona exchange rate and the interest rate differential take in the data? Figure 2 shows the value of the krona relative to the euro and the difference between Swedish and German five-year government bond rates since 1995. If we only look at the past few years, the theory seems to apply rather well as the krona has strengthened against the krona at the same time as the difference between Swedish and German long-term rates has grown. On the other hand, the figure shows that there have been several episodes with both increasing and decreasing interest rate differentials in which the krona has not at all reacted in accordance with this simple view. If we now concentrate solely on the most recent period, one may wonder why interest rate differentials appear to capture shifts in relative market expectations, while during the same period of time it was difficult, as previously pointed out, to directly interpret interest rate fluctuations in terms of market expectations?
First, the target the Bank of England is to pursue -- a low inflation target of 2½% -- is set by the government. In an open market economy, the conduct of an effective monetary policy is helped enormously if the authorities can be clear and open about the price stability objective they are pursuing; and in a democratic system, it is absolutely right that the elected government should set this critical strategic objective for the central bank to pursue. 5. Secondly, it is then the responsibility of the Bank of England to achieve this low inflation target, principally through management of interest rates. But this responsibility is to be conducted within a structured framework. Decisions on interest rates are taken by a Monetary Policy Committee in the Bank, consisting of nine members: five of these come from within the Bank -- the Governor, the two Deputy Governors and the two Executive Directors responsible for monetary policy; the other four are appointed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer and are recognised experts in their field -- in fact, four economists of outstanding reputation. A representative of the Treasury attends the meetings and can contribute to the discussion, but has no vote. The Monetary Policy Committee meets monthly. It announces its decision each month as soon as its meeting concludes, and the minutes of its meetings are published within six weeks, including details of how each member voted. 6. A third important feature is that monetary policy is conducted with a high degree of transparency.

Consistently with this view, we believe that it is essential that payments be able to flow freely throughout the TARGET system. 25. Why do we devote this effort for preparing for the euro? The reason is very straightforward. London’s pre-eminent position as an international financial centre rests on the fact that it provides broad and liquid markets for the full range of internationally-traded currencies and for the vast array of different instruments and facilities denominated in them. The euro will undoubtedly become a major internationally-traded currency, and it is therefore certain that it will be traded extensively in the London markets. The euro thus represents an opportunity, rather than a threat, for the London markets, and it is important that the London markets prepare in good time the systems and infrastructure needed to take advantage of this opportunity. London as a financial centre after EMU 26. The reason why we are convinced that the euro represents a major opportunity for the London markets relates essentially to the strengths that the London markets have displayed over the years:  •  London is a global financial centre rather than just a European centre, with much of its business generated around the world, not just within Europe. BIS Review 110/1997  -5-  •  London has always thrived on financial innovation, and has a strong track record of capitalising on new opportunities. •  The euro may very well bring greater financial activity to the main Continental financial markets.
We will continue to make Singapore an attractive city where foreign talent will want to come to work and live and where they will feel at home. Conclusion Let me conclude. ASEAN is entering a new and exciting phase. Individually, each ASEAN country possesses unique strengths and offers unique opportunities. Together, an integrated and revitalised ASEAN holds great promise to become the third engine of growth in Asia. Singapore will contribute to the power of this engine. I wish you a pleasant evening and hope that you will have a fruitful stay in Singapore. Thank you. BIS Review 47/2007  3

Philipp Hildebrand: Banking regulation – changing the rules of the game Speech by Mr Philipp Hildebrand, Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Twelfth Annual International Banking Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, 25 September 2009. I would like to thank Jürg Blum, Rita Kobel, and Signe Krogstrup for their valuable support in drafting this speech. I also want to thank Bertrand Rime for helpful comments and discussions. *  *  *  Introduction I want to thank the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago for the kind invitation and the opportunity to speak to you this evening. It is a privilege to be here. A year ago, we were in the midst of a perfect financial storm. Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in midSeptember, the imminent collapse of the global financial system became a distinct possibility. To avert such an outcome, a bold and unprecedented international policy response was needed and promptly initiated. In the US as well as in Europe, several of the world’s largest financial institutions required public capital injections, and their nondeposit liabilities had to be guaranteed. A number of countries were forced to expand their deposit insurance programs. In some cases, governments or central banks purchased or guaranteed bank assets. 1 In spite of the rapid policy response aimed at stabilizing the global financial system, the broader economy was heavily hit. Trade and industrial production literally fell off a cliff.
Not only its monetary policy, and not only in Germany. We will keep explaining to our critics in Germany – and also to German savers – that their country is one of the main beneficiaries of the euro. A stronger euro area, with inflation of below but close to 2%, would be good for Germany. As for the debate we may have from time to time with some academics in Germany, I would say there is a certain irony in them taking us to task because we are focusing on our inflation target, since it is at Germany’s insistence that the ECB was given that mandate – and that mandate only – in the euro’s founding treaties, and in my view rightly so. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Did the euro’s jump after your announcement on March 10 disappoint you? It doesn’t help your return-to-inflation goal… The ECB, as you know, doesn’t have a foreign exchange target. What I saw is that financial markets in general understood what we did, which is more important than the instant reaction of forex operators. The dollar/euro exchange rate is mostly driven by different monetary policies in the United States and Europe. What would be more worrisome for us would be a further decline of emerging countries’ currencies, and increased volatility of the pound sterling due to the EU referendum debate in the United Kingdom. Does the ECB have a plan for a possible “Brexit”?

I think banks have been reassured about the possible negative impact of negative rates on some of them. They know we will not take rates into absurdly negative territory. But we can never rule out further moves. That would not be credible anyway. Over the last few months the ECB has been suggesting that it has done its part in the euro zone recovery, and has been asking governments to do theirs. At the same time, it insists it could do even more if needed, and that its toolbox is far from empty. Isn’t that partly contradictory? The roles of the ECB and governments are different. Our job is to bring inflation back to its near-2% level. That’s our mandate; you could say that’s our contract. Whenever we have doubts that the goal will be reached, we act. Monetary policy has a short-to-medium-term horizon. We think it is up to governments to act to foster long-term growth. According to the European Commission, potential growth in the euro area is at around 1% today. It was almost twice that in the years before the crisis. And we think that structural and fiscal policy must be used wherever there is scope to do so, in terms of both quantity and quality. But it is not the ECB’s role to go into detail about what governments should do. The founding treaties are explicit and give us different roles. The idea that the central bank should be the gendarme of economic policy among euro area countries simply doesn’t work.
Financial turbulence puts a strain on the real economy and is a threat to price stability. Moreover, we are dependent on well-functioning banks and financial market infrastructures for the implementation of monetary policy operations. Second, we have an important role to play in times of financial instability, namely that of lender of last resort. As such, we provide liquidity to financial institutions in financial distress. This emergency action 1 2  Sources: Blick (6 July 2021), Finanz und Wirtschaft (21 July 2021), translated from the German. With a focus on Switzerland, cf. Birchler U.W., The National Bank’s closer focus on the stability of the system, in: The Swiss National Bank 1907–2007. Page 2/12  often comes with high risks for us and for the economy as a whole. These two points illustrate that it is in our interest to identify risks to financial stability as early as possible and to contain them through preventive measures. The SNB’s mandate regarding financial stability was explicitly defined in the comprehensive revision of the National Bank Act (NBA) in 2003. In accordance with art. 5 NBA, the SNB is obliged to ensure price stability and, as part of this mandate, also to make a contribution to the stability of the financial system. By choosing the word ‘contribution’, legislators expressed the fact that financial stability is subordinated to the goals of monetary policy and that it is promoted not only by the SNB, but also by other authorities.

Mr Gjedrem discusses various aspects of monetary policy, financial markets and the welfare state in Norway  Annual address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank, the Norwegian central bank, at the meeting of the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank, held in Oslo on 17 February 2000. *  *  *  We have just marked the turn of the millennium. Norway can look back at a century of upheaval - the dissolution of the union with Sweden in 1905, social conflict in the interwar period and the emergence of the welfare state. At the beginning of a new century it is natural to examine some of the threads running through our economic history. This may also shed light on the choices Norway is now facing. We have experienced periods of inflation and periods of deflationary recession. Vast changes in the world economy have led to shifts in monetary policy and financial markets. Technology has broken down regulations. Patterns of funding and ownership are changing. This creates unrest and uncertainty, but also offers new opportunities for growth and welfare. The welfare state is facing major challenges as a result of the ageing of the population and tax competition among countries. In this year’s annual address I will discuss various aspects of monetary policy, financial markets and the welfare state. Historical perspective One of the first endeavours of the Storting (Norwegian parliament) after its establishment in 1814 was monetary reform. In 1816 Norges Bank was founded. The specie daler was Norway’s first monetary unit.
Like the 14th century Silk Road, the current emergence of Islamic financial products and services has brought together financial services providers across continents to trade on this new route. The emergence of the New Silk Road reflects the increasing and evolving economic and financial relationships and interlinkages, with Islamic finance well positioned to further facilitate these linkages to offer mutually-reinforcing benefits to those who participate in it. The economic and financial linkages between Asia and the Middle East are growing through a significant expansion in trade and investment between the two regions and opportunities to leverage on the high level of savings and resources both these regions have been endowed with. Indeed, the New Silk Road opens up the prospect of exciting opportunities for greater economic progress and prosperity for us. The New Silk Road has created linkages that build on the comparative advantages between Asia and the Middle East. For example, Middle East domestic infrastructure requirements are estimated to total USD500 billion for the next 5 years, and Asian companies have demonstrated the capacity to provide the technology, expertise and human capital to meet these infrastructure demands. Indeed, the New Silk Road has facilitated the development and effective use of talent and expertise across the two  BIS Review 48/2007  1  regions. In addition, the New Silk Road has reinforced the rapidly evolving Islamic financial industry and the growing significance of Islamic financial markets and institutions.

Through in-depth market knowledge of the financial services industry, it will without doubt spur greater innovation in Islamic financial services, leading to cutting-edge products and services. Equally important, it is also expected to enhance linkages between the Middle East and Asian regions, acting as a conduit to promote greater economic integration and encourage deeper intermediation of Islamic markets. This further underscores the economic integration of both the Middle East and Asian regions and further enhances linkages in the New Silk Road, a manifestation of the thriving global Islamic finance market. Ladies and Gentlemen, On this occasion of the official launch of Kuwait Finance House Research, it is with pleasure that I congratulate Kuwait Finance House for its forward-looking outlook and commitment to contribute to the success of Islamic finance by allocating resources in having a dedicated research entity to drive its Islamic banking business forward. It is my hope that Kuwait Finance House will continue to play a major role in the initiatives to further develop Islamic banking both here and in Asia. I wish Kuwait Finance House Research every success in its endeavours. In the name of Allah, Most Gracious, Most Merciful, it now gives me great pleasure in officiating the launch of Kuwait Finance House Research. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 48/2007
They might actually boost risk-taking incentives among banks which are not subject to prudential intervention. BIS Review 168/2010  21  Chart 18 UK credit cycle across monetary regimes  (1) Gold Standard. (2) Inter-war suspension. (3) Resumption of Gold Standard. (4) Sterling Area. (5) Bank of England nationalised; Bretton Woods. (6) Bretton Woods; Sterling full external convertibility. (7) Monetary Targeting. (8) Exchange Rate Mechanism. (9) Inflation Targeting. (10) Bank of England independence. Source: Bank calculations. Chart 19 US credit cycle across monetary regimes  (1) Gold Standard. (2) Inter-war suspension. (3) Resumption of Gold Standard. (4) FDIC established; Federal Reserve reorganisation. (5) Bretton Woods. (6) Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord (1951). (7) End convertibility into gold (“Nixon Shock”) (1971). (8) Volker era. (9) Greenspan era. (10) Bernanke era. Source: Bank calculations. 22  BIS Review 168/2010  To see that, consider a two-bank variant of the model described by the payoffs in Table 4, in now references the market’s prior over the macro state, which it updates having which is neither too big nor too small, there are observed a bank’s earnings. When two symmetric Nash equilibrium strategies in this game: {Risky, Risky} and {Tight, Tight}. When Bank 1 sets {Risky}, Bank 2 does not want to set {Tight} and declare negative earnings as this is more likely to signal low ability, provided the long term costs are not too big. On the other hand, if Bank 1 sets {Tight}, Bank 2 sets tight too if long term costs are not too small.

On the face of it, these summary statistics are consistent with credit dynamics being distinct from GDP dynamics. It is possible to formalise this intuition by using filtering techniques to  11  The countries covered are: Australia, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United States. 12  They argue that medium term cycles in GDP reflect persistent responses of real activity to the high-frequency fluctuations normally associated with the “business cycle” (Comin and Gertler, op. cit.). In this sense, there is a direct analogy with our model, in which strategic complementarities in risk taking can generate persistent credit cycles in response to high-frequency fluctuations in fundamentals. 13  The bank loans series consists of total domestic currency loans of banks and banking institutions to companies and households, while the assets series consists of total domestic currency assets of banks and banking institutions. For a full description of the data and its sources, see Schularick and Taylor (2009), Appendix B.  BIS Review 168/2010  9  extract the cycle in credit. To do so, we apply a band-pass filter to the data. 14 This isolates the cyclical component of a series operating in a frequency range specified by the user. 15 Charts 6–7 show cyclical fluctuations in real loan growth in the UK and US. The specified frequency domain is 8–20 years. Shorter-term, business cycle fluctuations, say between 2–8 years, were typically not found to account for much of the overall cyclical variation in credit.