samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The Bank, therefore, relies to a considerable extent on its established network of twelve Regional Agents who have the role of finding out from local businesses and firms their views on the state of the economy. The Agents maintain direct contact with around 7,000 businesses across the UK and provide a monthly report for each region to the MPC. Where there are particular concerns, the MPC also commissions the Agents to carry out inquiries on specific issues. Because of the time it takes for changes in interest rates to impact on inflation, it is perhaps too early to judge the success of these new arrangements. We could argue that we have made a reasonable start, given the period of sustained growth with low inflation and falling unemployment the UK has enjoyed since the new monetary framework was put in place. But a fairer measure of the MPC’s success is perhaps the fall in inflation expectations since May 1997 (which can be derived from prices of government bonds) which has brought the cost of long-term borrowing down to historically low rates. I think that this provides some measure of the growing credibility of the monetary policy framework; and the expectation that we have moved into an era where we can expect low and stable price conditions. Core purpose: financial stability I will say more later about the current position of the UK economy, but first I would like to say something about the other functions of the Bank which are perhaps less familiar than the MPC.

Set against this, sterling’s strength, essentially against the euro since the dollar rate has remained fairly constant for some time, continues to bear down on some sectors and some regions. Within the MPC we are very conscious of the resulting sectoral imbalances in the economy and you may have seen from the latest minutes that we have discussed the issue at length. One of the standard policy responses in these circumstances would be a fiscal tightening, but active use of fiscal policy in this way is by no means straightforward. In the circumstances, it is not clear how monetary policy in the short run can help in bringing sterling down to what we might regard as a more appropriate level. A decision not to have raised rates would not necessarily have resulted in a fall in sterling. In the context of buoyant domestic demand and a tight labour market pointing to strong underlying domestically-generated inflation,the market might have been left with the expectation that tighter policy had simply been deferred, and this might have had the perverse effect of putting further upward pressure on sterling. Another possibility that the Committee considered was foreign exchange intervention; but there is no indication that market support for sterling at these levels is fragile and any intervention operation that failed would be damaging to the credibility of the Committee and thus of the new UK monetary policy framework.
Thus, the price stability policy has in general been successful. In many countries this is due not only to monetary policy, but also to fiscal policy. A common fiscal framework within the EU, and in Sweden’s case supplemented by a clearer national fiscal framework, have contributed to more orderly public finances. In Sweden this has led to a gradual decline in the central government debt as a percentage of GDP. We can look back on a decade of GDP growth where the annual average has been a half a percentage point higher than during the 1970s and 1980s. Inflation has been close to target, which can be compared with an average annual inflation rate of around 8 per cent during the two decades 1975-1995. …but asset prices are fluctuating considerably However, at the same time as inflation has been low and stable around the world since the mid-1990s, there have been substantial fluctuations in asset prices. The fact that debts and asset prices appear to vary more now than they did 10-15 years ago should, at least in part, be due to the deregulation and evolution of the financial markets. In efficient markets, it is the price system that provides guidance to ensure that resources are steered to where they will provide the greatest benefit. For instance, equity prices in industries with considerable growth potential should rise as a result of profits being expected to increase there.

Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Link between financial education, consumer protection and financing inclusion Closing remarks by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Malaysia-OECD High Level Global Symposium on Financial Well-Being, Kuala Lumpur, 1 October 2015. *  *  *  As this year’s Global Symposium on Financial Well-Being comes to a close, I thought it is appropriate to contemplate the world surrounding us. I want to make a short remark on the link between financial education, consumer protection and financing inclusion. Financial education, consumer protection and financial inclusion is a tractable endeavor if we work in a collaborative manner. They are means to a noble end. Properly synchronized it would create a sustainable growth and financial stability, a prerequisite to continuously improve people’s lives. For the full promise of financial inclusion to be realised, financial education is a powerful tool to equip consumers with the financial competence to manage their finances more effectively and improve the overall well-being of individuals and households. It also means that financial education must enable consumers to liberate themselves by equipping them with the ability to make informed decisions thus ensuring their meaningful participation in the financial system.
4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  4  Table 2: Statements of Commitment to the FX Global Code by the 30 largest asset managers  Firm  Assets Under Management $  SoC on public register, or have otherwise informed the Bank of England  1  Blackrock  6,060    2  Vanguard Asset Management  4,663  3  State Street Global Advisors  2,641  4  Fidelity Investments  2,284  5  BNY Mellon Investment Management  1,808  6  Capital Group  1,715  7  J.P. Morgan Asset Management  1,677  8  PIMCO  1,667  9  Amundi  1,626  10  Prudential Financial  1,323  11  Legal & General Investment Management  1,263  12  Goldman Sachs Asset Management  1,224  13  Wellington Management International  1,026  14  Natixis Investment Managers  947  15  T. Rowe Price  941  16  Nuveen  923  17  Nothern Trust Asset Management  913  18  Invesco  890  19  AXA Investment Managers  850  20  DWS (Deutsche Asset Management)  800  21  Affiliated Managers Group  794  22  UBS Asset Management  756    23  Insight Investment  751    24  Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank  748    25  Aberdeen Standard Investments  739  26  Legg Mason  733  27  Franklin Templeton Investments  716  28  BNP Paribas Asset Management France  649  29  Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking  611  30  Allianz Global Investors  568               Source: Firm AUM rankings from IPE’s ‘Top 400 Asset Managers 2018’, https://www.ipe.com/Uploads/k/x/x/Top-400-Ranking.pdf.

The number of ‘Statements of Commitment’ (SoCs) – which record organisations’ recognition of, and commitment to adopt, the Code – has risen sixfold, from 100 in April 2018 to 605 in November, as recorded on the GFXC’s global index. That index, available on the GFXC website,1 allows market participants to see who signed up, and when. It includes statements from banks, asset managers, corporate treasurers, infrastructures, non-bank liquidity providers – and 41 central banks, including the Bank of England, who have committed to following the principles in the Code in their official operations and investment activities, except where doing so would inhibit the discharge of their legal duties or policy functions. Adoption of the Code is now widespread amongst banks and other sell-side firms. Table 1 shows that all of the largest 30 firms by asset size have signed up to the Code. Progress on the buy-side has been slower, though still quite encouraging: 11 of the largest 30 asset managers, accounting for over $ trillion of assets under management, have so far committed to the Code (Table 2). That number will rise over time, as firms currently working towards adoption reach the end of their internal processes. Nonetheless, it is clear that more remains to be done to secure the same degree of signup to the Code as there has been on the sell-side. What are the remaining obstacles, and how can we address them?
According to the articles that set the frameworks for the IMF’s work, the Fund’s bilateral financial surveillance should ensure that “Each member shall avoid manipulating exchange rates or the international monetary system in order to prevent effective balance of payments adjustment or to gain an unfair competitive advantage over other members.” The articles were written in a different era and, as we have seen, the IMF has been carrying out financial surveillance and analysis that is broader than stipulated in the articles for a number of years now. The modernisation and clarification of the IMF’s articles is now needed to enable the Fund to fully take on the task of supervising the global financial system, but this will require a long process. However, a first step towards a more formal mandate was taken in July 2012 when the IMF’s Executive Board adopted the Integrated Surveillance Decision (ISD). This agreement stipulates, for example, that the Fund’s bilateral surveillance should be conducted on the basis of a broader perspective than set out in the articles. The links between countries and how their economic policies can affect the global economy should now be included in the surveillance. The ISD thus underlines the multilateral dimension of the Fund’s bilateral surveillance. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  It is positive that there is now a board decision on how the IMF should work. But the longterm goal should still be to change the Articles of Agreement so that they reflect what the IMF actually does.

It can typically run into hundreds of pages, with detailed descriptions about the company’s business operations, its competitive environment, governance practices, and risk exposures, not to mention a full set of financial statements. Most retail investors cannot easily digest all this information. But the scrutiny of the prospectus by analysts and institutional investors helps to bring to light any significant weakness in the company. Having said that, I must acknowledge that greater disclosure does not always improve our understanding of investment products. While all material and relevant information must be disclosed, there is a tendency for disclosure to be voluminous and legalistic – often made for the purpose of limiting legal liability rather than facilitating understanding by retail investors. MAS therefore seeks to ensure that information disclosed is not only adequate but also transparent. Transparency MAS has sharpened the focus on providing investors information in a clear and concise manner to aid understanding. Earlier this year, we introduced a new regulatory requirement for a Product Highlights Sheet to accompany offers of investment products that come with prospectuses. Its purpose is to convey key risks and product information in plain language and in a simple question-and-answer format. Let me give an example. In one recent prospectus, the right of the investors to cancel their subscription within seven days was spelled out in two rather technical paragraphs using a total of 170 words. In the Product Highlights Sheet, the same point was made in two simple sentences.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  need to create stronger linkages in the vital areas of trade and investment, business as well as financial linkages. There are several ways to achieve this: 6. Firstly, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has identified growing South-South economic linkages via trade and investment as a potential driver of global growth and emphasized the need for policymakers to further reduce barriers to trade and investment4. Trade between Asia, Middle East, Africa and Latin America has developed over the past two decades but still remains a relatively small 17% proportion of world trade. Asia’s share of total trade with the GCC grew from just 10% in 1980 to 36% in 20095. Having identified this as a priority area, ASEAN and GCC foreign ministers met in Singapore last year and agreed upon a Plan of Action to boost cooperation in trade and investment, among other areas. Islamic finance can potentially play a part in facilitating more trade between Asia and the Middle East with the involvement of more global and Islamic banks from both regions. 7. Secondly, the high level of savings and wealth accumulation in the GCC and Asia should also be mobilized by the financial sector and channeled towards more productive economic uses in both regions, especially to meet the demand for national infrastructure such as power plants, hospitals, roads and rail networks. The ADB Institute estimated that Asia will need $ trillion in infrastructure investment between 2010 and 2020.

The Ministry of Finance will provide additional clarification and detailed explanation of the income tax treatment on more prescribed Islamic financing arrangements including financing through a partnership arrangement, project finance as well as interbank placement of funds6. This is in  6  The tax circular will cover Islamic financing arrangements based on Diminishing Musharaka (financing through a partnership arrangement) and Istisna (project financing) and interbank placement based on Wakala (agency contract) and Murabaha (sale at cost-plus) concepts. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  keeping with our long-standing principle that Shariah-compliant products should not be disadvantaged in terms of regulatory and tax treatment where the economic substance and risks are similar to conventional products. We hope that this will expedite the development of more such financial products in Singapore. Conclusion 18. To sum up, the Middle East and Asia continue to present attractive opportunities. Both regions need to work closer together to achieve greater synergy and accelerate the global growth of Islamic finance. Singapore will play its part in this international effort together with our regional and industry partners. 19. I am glad to see more players from Middle East and Asia participating in this year’s Summit. I hope that you will take up the challenge to work together to spur the development of Islamic finance as a bridge between Asia and the Middle East. Thank you. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
I would also like to share with you our commitment to taking a more active role in directly explaining to the public the rationale behind the main economic decisions, in addition to the associated operating rules, their main characteristics and all those aspects that shape the economic and financial environment. Accordingly, we intend to broaden the Bank’s participation in those academic, 16  https://www.bde.es/bde/es/secciones/sobreelbanco/Transparencia/  11  professional and social fora where our presence may prove beneficial. This includes the use of new communication instruments, such as the recent opening of several social media accounts, and regular contact with the press to explain our activities and the content of our reports. We also aim to build on our long-standing initiatives in the fields of information, education and financial literacy. Here, I would also like to underline our commitment to further improving the institution’s transparency. For instance, in the Transparency Portal we are providing more detailed information on the calendars and appearances of the Governor and the Deputy Governor, and documents pertaining to the integrity expected of our high-level officials. In addition, both the Deputy Governor and I, as representatives of the ECB’s Supervisory Board and the Governing Council, respectively, have signed a new code of conduct.17 This increases our personal commitment to the highest ethical standards in order to ensure our independence from the public and private sector and avoid potential conflicts of interest.

6  Authorising credit institutions; authorising the acquisition of qualifying holdings; ensuring compliance with EU legislation on prudential and governance requirements; conducting supervision on a consolidated basis over credit institutions; conducting supervisory reviews and stress tests; participating in supplementary supervision of financial conglomerates; performing supervisory tasks in relation to credit institutions’ recovery plans and the adoption of early intervention measures. 7  The criteria for determining whether a credit institution is considered significant are the following:  — Size and economic importance: total consolidated assets exceed € billion or 20% of the GDP of the country where the institution is established, or it is one of the three largest institutions of a Member State. — Cross-border activity: it has subsidiaries in more than one participating country, whose cross-border assets or liabilities represent more than 20% of its total assets or liabilities. — Public financial assistance: it has received or requested direct financial assistance from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) or the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). 4  The SSM Regulation also provides for the task of adopting measures in pursuance of macroprudential stability to be conferred on the ECB.8 To ensure full coordination with the national designated authorities in this area, the latter must give advance notice of their intention to activate macroprudential tools to the ECB, which may object to it.
Finally, there are some signs of a maturing of the global corporate sector credit cycle and this has the potential to generate tensions in global financial markets, especially credit derivatives. 3. Global macro-financial environment  Let me now illustrate the analysis behind our assessment in more detail, starting with the global macro-financial environment where the ever-expanding current account and financial imbalances and the high oil prices continue to feature as prominent sources of risk. BIS Review 50/2006  1  The Chart on the left draws your attention to the scale of global financial imbalances and to the fact that the United States remains the largest debtor country. However, there have been changes in the relative importance of global creditor countries. Indeed, the aggregate contribution of the Asian economies to financing the US deficit has broadly stabilised while the oil producing countries have surpassed them in importance. There have been concerns about the sustainability of global current account positions over the past six months as the cyclical support for the US dollar has been gradually waning. In this context, I would like to draw your attention to Box 1 of the Review that contains an overview of the recent debate on this topic. Oil prices have been volatile and they have surged further since November last year, against a background of persistently strong demand and renewed geopolitical tensions.

On both accounts, lessons learned suggest the need for continued and careful monitoring of banks with large and cross-border operations, as these appear to account for a disproportionate share of the systemic risk in the sector. With this in mind, Special Feature A takes stock of various conceptual aspects of designing macro-stress tests for the banking sector, with a focus on credit risk. Judging from market-based forward-looking indicators, the central outlook for the banking sector remains positive. Market participants’ perceptions of banks’ risks have continued to diminish, also recognising banks’ greater ability to manage and shed risks in their balance sheets. However, the increasing reliance of large euro area banks on non-interest income, and in trading income in particular, could imply increased risks in the future. As a reappraisal of market risk could take place in connection with an abrupt unwinding of the search for yield, banks could be exposed to greater market risks directly or indirectly through their exposure to counterparties. Box 13 in the Review analyses the downside risks in euro area banks’ stock prices. The chart on the left on slide 11 shows that the tail risk of portfolios consisting of stocks of banks from three different size categories (large, medium-sized and small listed banks) behave rather differently under different market conditions.
And there are examples of price and wage spirals, when expectations of higher prices in the future led to higher wage increases that eventually forced a change from a fixed exchange rate to a floating exchange rate. The inflation target was introduced in connection with this changeover. Economic agents’ expectations of future inflation are an important element in assessing the credibility of monetary policy with regard to attaining the inflation target. What is the situation today? Five-year inflation expectations among money market participants have long been close to 2 per cent. The most recent quotation available at our meeting in April was 2.2 percent on average. In May, it rose to just under 2.4 percent. Expectations have thus risen, albeit not to any alarming levels. It should also be added that the median, that is, the middle observation, is still at 2 percent. 12 [14]  It is important to point out that money market participants’ inflation expectations are not formed in a vacuum. These actors at the same time form expectations of a number of macroeconomic key variables. This includes expectations of the coming monetary policy. In April 2022, money market participants expected a repo rate of rounded 0.8 per cent twelve months ahead and a repo rate of 1.1 per cent 24 months ahead from April 2022. In May, the corresponding expectations were approximately 1.3 and 1.6 per cent. In other words, money market participants' expectations of inflation are based on the expectation of a less expansionary monetary policy.

Richard W Fisher: Beer goggles, monetary camels, the eye of the needle and the first law of holes Remarks by Mr Richard W Fisher, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, before the National Association of Corporate Directors, Dallas, Texas, 14 January 2014. *  *  *  With reference to Peter Boockvar, the Book of Matthew, Sherlock Holmes, “The Wolf of Wall Street” and Denis Healey. The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. Thank you, George [Jones]. George is a great member of the Dallas Fed board of directors, and I am honored he would take the time to introduce me. Waylon Jennings said of your namesake that “if we could all sound like we wanted to, we’d all sound like George Jones.”1 I often feel that way about George at our board meetings. He gives a sharp, crisp, spot-on briefing of banking conditions in that deep, beautiful voice of his and I always think: I want to be just like George when I grow up. Again, thank you George for that kind introduction. During the holiday break, I spent a good deal of time trying to organize my thoughts on how I will approach monetary policy going forward. Today, I am going to share some of those thoughts that might be of interest to you as corporate directors.