The second member believes that inflation is broadly as expected, but the pressures in the economy are surprisingly high on the upside. This member, too, will conclude, that the interest rate should  27  See overview and further references in Carl Andreas Claussen, Egil Matsen, Øistein Røisland and Ragnar Torvik (2009): “Overconfidence, monetary policy committees and chairman dominance”, Norges Bank Working Paper 2009/17. 28  The members of the Executive Board are appointed by the government. According to Proposition No. 81 (2002–2003) to the Odelsting, the appointment process shall ensure that the Executive Board reflects a broad range of backgrounds and expertise, with particular emphasis on economics and finance, as well as a thorough understanding of economic issues. The proposition states that the Executive Board shall be composed of persons of different backgrounds to ensure that it is capable of being critical of its own assessments. See Proposition No. 81 (2002–2003) to the Odelsting: Om lov om endringer i sentralbankloven og finansieringsvirksomhetsloven og om opphevelse av valutareguleringsloven og penge- og kredittreguleringsloven (Concerning an Act to amend the Norges Bank Act and the Financial Institutions Act and concerning the repeal of the Exchange Control Act and the Monetary and Credit Policy Act). Ministry of Finance. Board appointment guidelines and rules relating to limitations on members’ ownership interests and functions are set out in the Norges Bank Act and the Regulation of 7 August 2000 relating to Norges Bank’s Executive Board members’ relationship to other credit institutions and undertakings.

I do not mean that in the trivial sense that we do not publish an intended path for rates, and so there is no promise to break. Rather, I do not believe that we have published  22  Bernanke, B. S., and F. S. Mishkin, 1997. ‘Inflation targeting: a new framework for monetary policy?’, Journal of Economic Perspectives vol. 11, no. 2; and King, M.A.K., 2004,’The institutions of monetary policy’, The Ely Lecture 2004, at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, San Francisco. 23  Woodford, M., 2003, ‘Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy’, Princeton University Press, Chapter 7; Dennis R.,‘Time-inconsistent monetary policies: recent research’, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, April 2003, number 2003-10; and Svensson, L.E.O. and M. Woodford, 2005, ‘Implementing optimal policy through inflation-forecast targeting’, in ‘The Inflation-Targeting Debate’ by Bernanke B. and Woodford, M. (eds. ), University of Chicago Press 2005. 24  Kyland, F. and E. Prescott, 1977, ‘Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans’, Journal of Political Economy, vol 85; Barro, R. and D. Gordon, 1983, ‘Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy’, Journal of Monetary Economics vol. 12; Fischer, S., 1994,‘Modern Central Banking’, in Capie F., C. Goodhart, S. Fischer and N. Schnadt (eds. ), ‘The Future of Central Banking, The Tercentenary Symposium of the Bank of England’. 25  For example Rogoff K., 1985, ‘The optimal degree of commitment to an intermediate monetary target’.