Money demand was affected by a moderate upward private sector demand for funding. Lending to private sector increased by 12.5% in July, triggered by the relatively stable increase of lending to private businesses and resurgence of lending to households. Although the banking system has eased lending standards, the Bank of Albania deems that there is still room for further easing, especially as regards credit for private investments. Developments in financial markets indicate downward risk premiums and liquidity. In the interbank market, trade volume expanded further and interest rates dropped, remaining close to the key rate and displaying low volatility. Moderate government demand for funding is reflected in refrained upward trend of government bill yields in the primary market. Additionally, the yields trend retained its trajectory, showing low inflation expectations by financial market agents. At the end of H1 2011, the situation of the financial system and banking sector was stable. The banking sector, expanded its activity and broadened its share in the country’s economy. Liquidity situation is good while the deposits by the public increased at satisfactory rates; they cover more than once the value of credits and borrowing from non-residents is low. Data indicate that lending growth rate is improving, but the credit portfolio quality continued to drop. The banking sector retains stable growth rates of net interests revenue and gross operational profit. However, tightened capital requirement to cover credit risk, led to lower net financial results of the banking sector compared to a year earlier. However, financial performance continues to be positive and concentrated.

Furthermore, the seasonal effect of domestic agriculture production supply was stronger this year, leading to further reduction of food items annual inflation. During 2011, consumer prices in Albania were subject to supply shocks, materialised in high imported prices. This effect was more moderate during July–August and, in the absence of sudden shocks, it is expected to subdue even further in the months ahead. Moreover, second-round effects are contained, under the influence of controlled expectations of economic agents on inflation. The domestic economic setting produced controlled inflationary pressures. Aggregate demand slowdown led to spare capacities of production factors and controlled long-term inflationary pressures on the economy. Therefore, core inflation was 2.9% in July, showing a downward trend, and was close to our inflation target. New economic data obtained in September are scarce. Following our earlier analysis and based on new available information, the Bank of Albania deems that the Albanian economy continued to grow during 2011. Economic activity relied primarily on public spending and exports surge, while the private sector demand had a slow positive performance. Consumption and investments were supported by crediting, but their upsurge is conditioned by hesitation to spend. Following the revised budget, the fiscal behaviour during the last two months is characterised by lower spending pace and lower budget deficit increase. Fiscal stimulus was present in the first quarter, while in the following months the fiscal policy was more contained, which is reflected in lower annual deficit increase.