samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Importantly, these cross-country differences tend be driven by younger firms, which are those that are most likely to supply radically innovative ideas.19 The same product and labour market reforms that would spur innovation and adoption would also support better reallocation. Employment protection legislation in particular is thought to significantly reduce the ability of innovative firms to attract resources.20 This is not an argument to lessen workers’ insurance against labour market risks, rather to shift the burden of that insurance away from firms and towards society more widely. This is where “flexicurity” type policies – active labour market policies, unemployment insurances – could play a greater role. Reallocation is also linked to several other policies, which cannot be covered in detail now. They include aligning insolvency regimes with best practice so that resources can be released more quickly: for a firm to be resolved takes less than six months in Ireland, for example, while in Slovakia it takes about four years.21 And they include channelling financing more effectively to innovative firms, where we also lag behind the US due to the fragmentation of venture capital within Europe.22 Indeed, this is now part of the wider agenda of the European Commission of building a capital market union.23 Why reforms are a necessary but not a sufficient condition for growth Let me finally say a word on the macroeconomic environment needed for structural reform to succeed. As I explained earlier, reforms produce both expansionary and contractionary forces in the short-term.

Indeed, this is why, despite the EU-IMF programmes proposing a comprehensive approach to reforms, product markets reforms have tended to lag labour market reforms. And the consequence is not only the mismatch between different measures that I just described. It is that reforms have often been perceived as unfair, which in turn undermines popular support for the reform process. So for those that still need to press ahead structural measures, including the large euro area economies, there are two key points to take from this. 12  4  For a more in-depth discussion on the link between wage developments and labour market institutions see the aforementioned speech by Mario Draghi at Jackson Hole. BIS central bankers’ speeches  First, talking vaguely about structural reforms, but not doing them, is the worst of all worlds. It creates uncertainty over the path of real interest rates, without in tandem raising expectations of future growth. Second, while in “normal” times it might be acceptable to reform one sector at a time, in crisis times it is not. Fairness must be a priority. And the best way to align vested interests is to reform them all at once. Why the composition of reforms matters The aim of structural reforms should however be more than internal devaluation. It should above all be to raise productivity growth. As I said earlier, the key to structural reforms having positive short-term effects is firms and households expecting higher permanent income, and altering their behaviour today. And to achieve this, productivity growth is essential.
The recovery should also be resilient to potential slowdown in world economic growth given that the initial pick up this year is mostly driven by domestic demand while growth momentum next year mostly reflects the continued rebound in tourists from abroad, which tend not to be sensitive to global economic activity. Bilateral inbound tourist flows in the past are relatively resilient to home economic conditions. This reflected the fact that there is a lot of pent-up demand and Thailand is a cost-effective value for money destination. 2. Balance of risk has tilted towards inflation Headline inflation is expected to peak in Q3/22 and gradually return to target range next year, but what’s concerning is that core inflation is increasing. a. Headline inflation is uncomfortably high and above the target range. It has been around 7.6% in June and July, the highest in 14 years. The rise of headline inflation has been supply-side driven and largely concentrated in food and energy-related categories. There has not been any sign of demandside pressure unlike in the US and UK. However, the risks are titled to the upside given possibilities of broader and faster cost pass-through and rising demand pressures as the economy gains strength. b. Core inflation has continued increasing for 4 consecutive months mainly due to faster cost passthrough such as from raw foods to prepared food prices. This is a sign or an indication that inflation engine might get fully started.

has noted that climate change may result in physical and transition risks that could impact the 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  safety and soundness of individual financial institutions and have broader financial stability implications for the banking system. In response, the Committee established the TFCR to undertake work on climate-related financial risks in February of 2020. I am acting as a co-chair of the Task Force, along with Frank Elderson, Executive Director of Supervision at the Netherlands Bank. In the first phase of work, the TFCR conducted a stock-take of members’ existing regulatory and supervisory initiatives on climate-related financial risks.3 This work highlighted the increasing focus on climate-related risks. To take the work forward, the TFCR is following a gradual and sequential approach from a banking supervisory perspective with a current focus on understanding climate risk transmission channels, as well as methodologies for measuring and assessing these risks. The TFCR plans to complete these fundamental research initiatives by mid-2021. Building on this analytical work, the TFCR will then consider the extent to which climate-related financial risks are incorporated in the existing Basel Framework and identify effective supervisory practices to mitigate such risks. The TFCR does not currently have a view on potential prudential treatments or supervisory expectations related to the mitigation of climate-related financial risks.
Accordingly, the Joint Year 2000 Council plans to issue a statement in the near future providing general support for the concept of a national-level coordinating body for the Y2K problem. In the United States, of course, the White House has established the President’s Council on Year 2000 Conversion, headed by John Koskinen. This effort, as well as those of this committee under the leadership of Chairman Leach, and of the other Congressional committees that have addressed the Y2K problem, has shown that national government bodies have a very important and useful role to play in encouraging progress in addressing the Y2K problem. Turning now to the question of how financial supervisors can implement effective Y2K programs, the Joint Year 2000 Council intends to promote the sharing of strategies and approaches. For example, the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision has prepared a paper containing “Supervisory Guidance on Independent Assessment of Bank Year 2000 Preparations”. This document is aimed at moving supervisors worldwide from a level of general awareness to a specific, concrete program of action for overseeing Y2K preparations, both on an individual bank basis and on a system-wide basis. The Joint Year 2000 Council intends to adapt this paper for use by financial market regulators and supervisors more broadly and to issue it as rapidly as possible with the endorsement of all four Sponsoring Organizations. The goal will be to provide guidance in developing specific Year 2000 action plans for all types of financial market authorities.

The negative return reduced the value of the Fund by nearly USD 100 billion. At the same time, new capital of close to USD 60 billion was transferred to the Fund during the year, the largest annual inflow in the Fund’s history. Furthermore, a weaker krone in relation to the currencies in which the Fund is invested increased the Fund’s value by some USD 80 billion. Consequently, in spite of the negative return, the Fund’s market value increased by nearly USD 40 billion during the year. The market value of the Pension Fund was around USD 350 billion (NOK 2 275 billion) at the end of 2008. The financial crisis is having a broad impact, and most forms of investment are falling in value. Other government assets, such as shareholdings in domestic industries and subsea resources in the North Sea have also fallen sharply in value, at market prices. For large investors, there have been few places to hide from the panic that has gripped financial markets. Prices for government bonds, particularly German and US bonds, rose last year, but yields are now very low and will provide little protection when inflation eventually picks up again. For households, housing wealth has also declined since summer of 2007 to the end of 2008. The same probably applies to the value of infrastructure investments. After a little more than 10 years of experience, the Norwegian Fund has not reaped a risk premium in equity market as we had expected.
The last two primary auctions of government bonds recorded a healthy bid-to-cover ratio of more than two times. Following higher market demand, MGS benchmark yields have eased lower between 8 – 32 bps across the yield curve. Non-resident holdings of government papers have also been pared down from a peak of 34.7% to 25.3% as at end April 2017. More importantly, our surveillance indicates that the composition of stable and long-term investors is now much higher, with previous outflows mainly due to short-term speculative positions exiting the market. This is definitely a positive development. Malaysia remains a highly open economy and will continue to welcome the participation of longterm investors. Indeed, we remain a highly attractive destination for foreign direct investment. Returns on Malaysia’s FDI assets have averaged 12.9% per annum between 2010 to 2016, higher than nominal GDP growth of 7.7% over the same period3. Payoffs from investing in the real economy are one of the highest in the region, making Malaysia an important profit centre for investors. 4/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  In the next seven months, the Bank will introduce further regulatory measures to strengthen the foundations for a strong and resilient banking system. First, we will implement a mandatory employment reference check for financial industry employees which is aimed at removing employee information asymmetries during job transitions. Second, we will share with the industry proposed revisions to the outsourcing policy to improve the governance and supervision of financial institutions, especially involving crossborder arrangements.

Each of these intangible assets has value, but this value can be lost in a heartbeat. While it is true that a tangible asset such as a factory can burn to the ground overnight, intangibles, unlike a factory, usually cannot be insured. A challenge to current accounting - and disclosure - rules, therefore, is how to reflect accurately not only the value of intangible assets, but also their vulnerabilities to sharp downward revaluations. BIS Review 57/2002  5  In terms of complex financial transactions, this past year's events have made clear that accounting and disclosure rules have failed to keep pace with financial innovation. Complex financial arrangements, such as those funded offshore or through special-purpose entities, are not effectively addressed in today's accounting and disclosure rules. We also saw telecom equipment manufacturers run up billions of dollars’ worth of customer guarantees, which under current accounting and disclosure guidelines did not have to be recognized in financial accounts or disclosed to investors until their customers defaulted or were near default. In these cases, it seems clear, one of the basic tenets of accounting and disclosure rules - that there should be no “hidden” liabilities - seems to have been violated. I would like to see much more done to address these deficiencies without unduly burdening the readers of accounting statements. 4. Disclosure  Disclosure is most useful as a complement to accounting statements.
5 The recent changes to the SGP, made in 2005, aim at strengthening all three aspects. Better governance is to be achieved through stronger national fiscal incentives, more prudent forecasting and more reliable statistics. The fiscal incentives can take the form of budgetary rules, or as in the Swedish case a budget law. Surveillance is a measure that would bring increased attention to the development of public finances. Such monitoring on behalf of a national institution would mean that transparency increased significantly, an important prerequisite for accountability. At least in the EU, there has been a need for more prudent forecasting. Serving as merely one example of possible problems, a study by the ECB shows that the closer a country comes to an excessive deficit, the more likely it is that the forecast the government presents officially will later turn out to be wrong. As for more reliable statistics, common methodological standards and independency of statistical compilers are two ways of addressing such problems. An integral part of the preventive arm is the yearly national stabilisation program. A product of the ministry of finance, it includes a thorough description of the economy, and the measures to be undertaken by policy makers in order to comply with the rules of the SGP. The corrective arm consists of the excessive deficit procedure (EDP). If a country runs a fiscal deficit deemed to be too large, the limit being at 3 per cent of GDP, corrective action has to be taken.

The development towards a more equity-based financial system where risk-sharing takes place reduces the over-reliance on debt funding, thus avoiding excessive debt and speculation and thus financial system fragility. In Islamic finance, this is further reinforced by Shariah principles that strongly discourage excessive debt given its detrimental effects on society. The use of risk-sharing transactions and undertakings under participatory finance models in Islamic finance thus offers the potential to reinforce the links between finance and the real economy. The contractual arrangements between the financier and the entrepreneur place  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  strong emphasis on the value creation and economic viability of the enterprise. This results in a close link between the growth of the financial sector and real sector activities in which the expansion or contraction of credit is dependent on developments in the real sector. This would provide a restraint on financial engineering and innovation as financial transactions need to be supported by real assets, thus aligning innovation to productive economic activities. As a result, the dangers of unbridled innovation are also substantially reduced. The move to embrace the risk-sharing dimension of Islamic finance also presents new opportunities for financial management. The profit sharing and risk-sharing characteristics of Islamic financial transactions strengthen the incentives for Islamic financial institutions to undertake the appropriate due diligence on the transactions to ensure that the profits are commensurate with the risks assumed.
Jon Nicolaisen: Can crises be curbed? Speech by Mr Jon Nicolaisen, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Oslo, 12 April 2016. *  *  *  Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. Keynes versus Hayek On 17 October 1932, a letter on the subject of public and private spending was published in The Times newspaper. The letter was signed by several economists, one of whom was John Maynard Keynes. In the letter, Keynes argues in favour of public spending: “If the citizens of a town wish to build a swimming-bath or a library, or a museum, they will not, by refraining from doing this, promote a wider national interest. [...] Through their misdirected good will the mounting wave of unemployment will be lifted still higher.” Two days later, on 19 October 1932, another letter was published in response. This letter was also signed by several economists, among them Friedrich Hayek: “... many of the troubles of the world at the present time are due to imprudent borrowing and spending on the part of the public authorities.

For the insurance industry, longevity risks for the different markets will need to be better understood before appropriate products and services can be developed and offered. To support such efforts, I am glad to note that our local universities have initiated research institutes and projects in these areas. One example is the new Centre for Silver Security under SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics. The Centre will focus on research in retirement security issues such as retirement planning and pensions. AXA University could thus leverage on the research community here to enhance the knowledge of risks in our region. The other aspect is the competency and availability of skilled professionals in the insurance industry. Having a pool of talent with the necessary skills is critical for the industry to maintain its competency and remain competitive. To support the specialised need of the insurance sector, the Nanyang Technological University launched a new minor for Risk Management and Insurance this year. We are also pleased that the General Insurance Association has launched the Global Internship Programme in May last year to provide deserving undergraduates with exposure to the wider insurance industry, both locally and overseas. We believe that the current downturn is also an opportunity to invest in developing talent for the longer term. We have, as part of a nation wide effort to encourage manpower development, recently announced enhancements of up to 90% co-funding for training schemes under the Financial Sector Development Fund.
Recognizing the strong literary traditions of the Lotos Club, I would also note that I had the fortune of reading some of the great works of Middle English, including Chaucer. I also enjoyed being on both the freshman wrestling and golf teams—even if it was an odd pairing and our teams were not very good. In contrast to Columbia, the city seemed much less attractive. From my perspective as a naïve 17-year-old from suburban Massachusetts, it seemed outright dangerous and dirty. The danger was driven home immediately. One of my roommates was robbed his first day during a walk through one of the nearby parks. He didn’t understand, nor did I at the time, that certain places near Columbia weren’t very safe, even during daylight hours. While you could avoid the crime by being careful where you went in the city, there was no avoiding the pollution. During this period, New York City still had considerable manufacturing activity, many apartment buildings burned low-grade oil and incinerated trash, and this was before the days of automobile catalytic converters. This confluence meant that grit was 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  everywhere, and even for the non-fastidious—which I admit I was one—showers were an absolute necessity on a daily basis. Sometimes it was so bad that you couldn’t see across the Hudson River, which was just a few blocks away! In order to understand the situation the city faced in the 1970s, we have to look back a decade earlier.

While the city has had a number of ups and downs since the early 1990s, in tandem with the United States, the general trend has been upwards. The city withstood a terror attack, financial crisis and natural disaster. Following the attack on the World Trade Center in 2001, there was uncertainty over whether this would be a permanent setback for the city. However, the city rebuilt and recovered and Lower Manhattan has evolved into a vibrant commercial, cultural and residential area. Gateway Plaza is still there, but the Battery Park City neighborhood today is now fully developed and well-established. There are even several grocery stores! The city weathered the recent financial crisis and the Great Recession far better than many would have anticipated. Although employment in the securities industry has stagnated after the decline due to the Great Recession, the city has found new sources of dynamism, including 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  rapid growth in the technology sector and the further development of tourism. The number of technology workers in New York City has doubled to about 125,000 in the past decade. That sector is now is nearly as big as the securities industry. And New York City had 56 million visitors last year, nearly double the total of 25 years earlier. In 2011, an important milestone was reached: payroll employment surpassed its previous alltime peak, from 1969, and it has grown strongly since then. Crime rates have fallen significantly across the city since 1990, and real estate values have surged.
Bank on Newark is a private/public partnership developed to bring unbanked populations into the financial mainstream by providing assistance in establishing bank accounts and receiving financial education. The New York Fed serves as an advisor and data monitor for Bank on Newark and its sister program, Bank on Manhattan, as well. This fall, we will launch our Financial Awareness Video Competition in Newark and Essex County in partnership with the City of Newark. The goal of this video competition is to promote financial awareness in the Greater Newark community. The video competition invites university- and college-level students to produce original videos that encourage young adults to practice sound personal financial decisionmaking. We have successfully launched similar video competitions in Puerto Rico and New York City. Last year’s videos were judged by a panel of professional film makers and leading advertising agencies. The winning videos ran for two weeks as “shorts” in major movie theaters in Manhattan and Queens. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  I thank the Newark Regional Business Partnership, PNC Bank and NJ PAC for inviting me here to speak to you today. I would also like to thank the SGA Group PC for sponsoring this breakfast.

In addition, a large number of residents, including myself, commute each day into the city. A smaller but still sizeable number of New Yorkers commute into this state. Now, how did the state fare during the downturn and how is the recovery proceeding? As I mentioned, the New York Fed produces indexes of economic activity to help monitor the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  performance of the region.1 Based on our index, the downturn in activity in New Jersey began about the same time as the Great Recession was beginning nationwide – that is, around December 2007. While activity in the state is no longer declining, and there has been a slight pickup this year in the level of activity, to date there is still no sign that a strong recovery has taken hold. Quite frankly, this modest recovery in New Jersey contrasts with the relatively sturdy recovery in activity in New York City over the past 18 months. Employment in our region also declined substantially during the Great Recession. Job losses in New Jersey totaled about 250,000 – on par with the roughly 6 percent loss nationwide. The pattern of job losses here in northern New Jersey was very similar. In New York City, job losses were also large but somewhat less severe, with employment in the city down a little over 4 percent. The jobs recovery in New Jersey to date has been sluggish.