samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
11  The distinction between output legitimacy (government for the people ) and input legitimacy (government by the people) was introduced in 1970 by Fritz Scharpf from the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies. For its use in the discussion of European affairs, see Scharpf, F. (1999) “Governing in Europe: effective and democratic?” Oxford University Press. 12  Gordon, Robert (2012). “Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds”, CEPR Policy Insight No 63. See also Cowen, Tyler (2011) The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better” Dutton Books. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  This means that it gains accrued importance the attention that will have to be given to the other form of political legitimacy referred by Scharpf the input legitimacy (government by the people) – that is, increasing citizens’ participation in European decisions. In some ways this may appear as contradictory with the search for effectiveness linked with the first form of legitimacy that requires now stronger central deciding bodies. To understand the great difficulty in addressing this issue, we have only to think about the analogy we could establish with the political trilemma of the world economy recently enunciated by Dani Rodrik: 13 “we cannot simultaneously pursue democracy, national determination and economic globalization” I will not enter into such complications. I will recall, however, that in this context, we should never forget that Europe is not a Nation or a State.

This shortcoming has clearly contributed to the situation we face today. Unwinding its consequences is the key challenges the euro area faces. So let me now discuss how we can address that challenge. Fixing EMU for the long-term Unwinding the euro area’s imbalances What is the way out of this situation for the euro area? First and foremost, the imbalances that accumulated in certain euro area countries have to be remedied by those countries themselves. Under present rules, other member states can only provide some interim financial assistance and have indeed done so via the EFSF/ESM. The indispensable national consolidation effort by the more indebted countries is the implication of a system where fiscal, economic and financial policies are basically decentralised. But despite a difficult start, a significant rebalancing is now happening within the euro area. Across the euro area, strong budgetary consolidation is taking place. The IMF forecasts that the euro area’s primary budgetary position will be almost in balance this year. This is quite an achievement in an international context: Japan, for example, will have a 9% of GDP primary deficit this year, the U.S. 6.5% and U.K. more than 5%. And the euro area is not only performing well on average: each individual member country will have this year a primary budget deficit lower than those three countries. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Important improvements are also taking place in competitiveness. Member States have now started to undertake structural reforms to facilitate intra-euro area adjustment.
The growth projections for 2009 are not so different; actually the larger part of the correction was done after December 2008. In sum, since September a significant correction has been applied to the expected value for growth. In addition to a smaller forecast for future earnings, there has been an increase in related uncertainty (Figure 7). In the United States, in early 2008, the width of the distribution of growth projections for 2009 was 2 percentage points. In early 2009, the same width increased to 2.3 percentage points and, by May, with at least the data for the first quarter of the year available, the width was of 3.3 percentage points. In Chile, GDP projections taken from the Economic Expectations Survey depict a similar picture, that is, the level of uncertainty among those forecasting growth has been increasing, despite the fact that, as the year passes and new data are added, the projections should not only be better but also have a smaller degree of uncertainty. What began happening in September 2008 that changed so dramatically the economic scenario around the world, Chile included? As I said before, the simple observation of traditional transmission channels of an external crisis cannot explain the events. On one hand, financial conditions tightened significantly worldwide. The domestic financial system also suffered, although without any episodes that might compromise its solvency.

No risk assessment is ever really complete and it is essential for all of us to keep up with what is going on to ensure that we are employing our resources as effectively and efficiently as possible, while achieving the dual objectives of risk-based AML/CFT efforts as well as ensuring legitimate customers have access to services. 23. So those are the three issues that I would like to highlight and which would be explored in the various sessions of this Conference. All in all, I would emphasise that the global AML landscape is an evolving one - geopolitical developments will continue to affect sanctions risks, criminals will come up with new ways of stealing money and of hiding and moving those money. Technology can hinder or help us in our AML efforts, and I have to say that although we are already doing a lot, we are far from having the perfect solution. The challenge that we face collectively, in the region, is to develop responses to existing and new risks that: Are agile and adaptable, while providing a framework of principles and rules that that we can all agree to and follow; Recognise innovation and make the best use of technology; and perhaps more importantly Challenge our established ways of meeting some expectations, and ensure the response always relates to effectiveness. 24. I note that you have a very full agenda the coming days covering these and other topics.
This fact has been recognized by the markets so that, since the onset of the global alarm about the pandemic, in Chile asset prices have fallen less than they have in other comparable economies. As Central Bank, we are actively working to ensure the full implementation and effect of the measures adopted. At the same time, we will be vigilant on how events unfold, ready to deploy all our instruments to support the economy. At this juncture, however, the actions of one institution alone will not do the job. In recent weeks we have been strengthening our coordination with the Ministry of Finance and the Financial Market Commission, to align rules and incentives so that the funds flow to the most stressed businesses and households. The challenges we face require intensifying this coordination, including a response from the banking system to measure up to the circumstances, and cooperation of the National Congress to speed up the legal reforms that require urgent implementation. Although this emergency affects the day-to-day lives of many people, if we know how to manage it well, with good policies and collaboration of everyone involved, the impact will be temporary and, as the pandemic is controlled, we can all return to our activities as usual. This will allow the economy to recover its growth rate and leave the period of contraction behind. However, for this to happen, it is essential that those needing help to get through this shock obtain it. Households and businesses must have access to credit at a reasonable cost.

Caleb M Fundanga: Important building stones for successful organisations in Zambia Remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, on the occasion of the opening of Investrust Bank PLC 2007 Management Strategic Planning Session, Mfuwe, 11 April 2007. *  *  *  • The Managing Director • Heads of Departments • Members of the Investrust Bank Plc Management Team First of all, I wish to take this opportunity to say congratulations on your 10th anniversary attained on 19th September, 2006. Considering that the Bank opened its doors at a very difficult time when confidence in locally owned banks was at its lowest, reaching 10 years is no mean achievement. The Bank of Zambia is proud to be associated with your achievements and can assure you of our full support now and the future. It was only on 30th March 2007 that Bank of China also celebrated 10 years of operations in Zambia. It is a great privilege and honour for me to officiate at this wonderful and history making occasion in your bank. History making in the sense that you have gathered in this conference to chart a path for your Financial Institution to ensure its sustained growth. Decisions you will make in this gathering are critical to all your stake holders. The public is keenly following your growth and performance. Allow me to remind you of the following issues which I believe are important building stones for successful organizations. 1.
Inflation expectations are based therefore on forecasts for the development of the real demand, how many unused resources there are in the economy initially, assessments of the productivity trend and the long-term trend level of production. However, consumer prices can be affected by factors that are not related to resource use in the Swedish economy. Inflation measured by CPI is also affected, for instance, by changes in supply and other factors that temporarily affect inflation. When CPI is affected by temporary factors of this kind  1  BIS Review 72/2000  that are unrelated to resource use, inflation diverges, in the simplified model, from the target even when the output gap is closed. UND1X is a measure that makes adjustments for some of these effects although far from all of them. The rule of conduct The Executive Board of the Riksbank has decided to formulate a decision rule that states that if inflation, measured as the annual change in CPI, is expected to rise about the target of 2% during the nearest one to two years, then the interest rate should normally be increased and vice versa. The choice of time horizon is justified by our assessment that an interest rate change has the greatest effect on price developments during this period. However, interest rate changes also affect inflation in the shorter and longer term, so that there are reasons for giving some consideration to the inflation forecast for the coming year and for the time beyond two years.

At the same BIS Review 72/2000  4  time, there are similarities with regard to the strong penetration of information technology in the economy, although we are also later in this development. As in the USA, high asset prices and strong optimism have stimulated demand and increased the level of indebtedness in the Swedish economy. Although it is not yet possible to write off the risk of financial imbalances building up the USA imbalances that can have negative effects for the American economy - it now seems as if the American economy may be on its way to a soft landing. However, there still remain the global financial imbalances that have been built up over many years with very high saving in Japan and very low saving and high indebtedness in the USA. We have still not seen how these imbalances are to be resolved and the consequences this will have for the world economy. Although there are some indications that the Swedish economy is experiencing a similar development as the American, the structural differences cannot be disregarded, which probably create greater inertia in the Swedish economy than in the American. One such area is the labour market. Considerable barriers to competition remain in the Swedish economy as well. Another difference is that the cyclical upswing we are now experiencing is taking place at the same time as an increase in growth and resource use in the rest of the world.
Jessica Chew Cheng Lian: Innovative risk management - GO BOLA! (Go Beyond, Go Original, Go agiLe, Go Ahead) Opening speech by Ms Jessica Chew Cheng Lian, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Malaysian Association of Risk and Insurance Management (MARIM) Conference 2018, Kuala Lumpur, 17 July 2018. * * * It is my great pleasure to be here today at the MARIM Conference 2018. With well-documented lessons on the links between corporate management and sport, and the 2018 FIFA World Cup final just behind us, the “GO-BOLA” theme must have been much too tempting to resist! As displayed on the football pitch, the quest to anticipate, defend and overcome continues to challenge risk and insurance management practitioners as we grapple with profound changes in the operating environment. The Allianz Risk Barometer for 2018 revealed that today’s risk management world is more fluid than it has ever been. The impact of many of the top risks identified is also more interlinked. Not surprisingly, business interruption and cyber incidents are the top threats for corporations of all sizes and sectors. Risk scenarios have also expanded – going beyond traditional risk exposures such as natural catastrophes and fires, to new risks associated with technological and social change. There is no question that risk and insurance managers today face significant uncertainty.

Such a process is undeniably messier, less predictable and possibly harder to explain in a consistent way. But it is also precisely these very characteristics that make it much more relevant in the world that we live in today. 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  At the Bank, our work on proportionate regulation and risk culture aims to support this evolution. For example, the innovation sandbox allows financial institutions greater regulatory room to test innovations within a controlled environment and learn from emerging experience. We are also examining options to better tailor the regulatory framework to the size and complexity of financial institutions. And we are directing greater supervisory focus on an institution’s prevailing risk culture to determine the degree of supervisory intensity that we apply to individual institutions. We expect these developments to pave the way for more constructive dialogue with institutions to achieve regulatory frameworks that will deliver a sensible balance and greater synergies between risk and innovation. Building resilience The third important shift that I want to mention concerns a stronger focus of innovative risk management approaches on building resilience, in addition to simply averting or reducing risks. In the area of network security, organisations are increasingly adopting an “assume breach” paradigm where they operate on the assumption that a risk event has already occurred. In the financial world, reverse stress testing is being incorporated into risk management approaches to identify the scenarios that would break an institution.
The IMF estimates that it stands 10% to 15% below pre-crisis forecasts in the euro area.ii However, to fully understand the situation, we need to take a closer look at the nature of business investment. We must distinguish between investment in construction on the one hand – which in itself does not spur innovation – and investment in research and development and industrial machinery on the other, which I call “productive investment”.iii The matter of concern is that productive investment is insufficient: across the economy as a whole, the productive investment rate has long been lower than before 2007 in the euro area and is persistently weaker in France than in Germany. This brings us to the third important feature of this investment dearth: the behaviour of businesses (slide 6). Since mid-2009 it has dramatically changed: given the  weakness  of  business  investment,  non-financial  corporations have turned from net borrowers into net lenders. Thereby they  3 have fuelled the current account surplus in the euro area. In short, all of these realities converge: the root of the problem today in Europe is the investment deficit more than the savings glut. 2. Now, why has this investment dearth happened? Let me briefly elaborate on the key levers of investment. The first and most important one is expected demand (slide 7). The overall weakness in economic activity acts as a deterrent for most businesses.

In Germany, it is a widely held belief that last Thursday, the ECB changed its monetary policy paradigm, that it is no longer the orthodoxy of the Bundesbank, as promised at the time the euro was created. The German audience should acknowledge that it is not a question of a different monetary paradigm. We need to deliver on our primary mandate, which is price stability in the medium term. This is a strategy which we inherited from the Bundesbank. Only the instruments are new. This could not have been foreseen in 1992, but in the Treaty it is nevertheless clear that the ECB can conduct monetary policy by means of asset purchases. And yet the Germans are still concerned. They are rightly concerned about the possible side effects of QE: the creation of asset bubbles and reduced incentives for countries to initiate reforms and reduce their debt. However, the response cannot be to ask the central bank to internalise these unwanted consequences. We have a narrow mandate. Instead, we need strong prudential policies and, in terms of fiscal policy, the strict application of the Stability and Growth Pact. But was it necessary to humiliate the Bundesbank? No such thing occurred. There was unanimity in the Governing Council that asset purchases are a legitimate monetary policy instrument. And then we discussed when to use it and whether the situation was bad enough to decide to use it.
8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  8  Some of the most important questions we are considering include:  -  Which FinTech activities constitute traditional banking activities by another name and should be regulated as such? Those systemic risks associated with credit intermediation including maturity transformation, leverage and liquidity mismatch should be regulated consistently regardless of the delivery mechanism or credit algorithm (a general principle of the FSB’s shadow banking roadmap). -  15  How could developments change the safety and soundness of existing regulated firms, particularly those judged to be systemic, and what supervisory responses for those firms should be put into place? -  How could developments change potential macroeconomic and macrofinancial dynamics including disruptions to systemically important markets? -  What are the implications for the aggregate level of cyber and operational risk in the financial system? And which FinTech activities could become systemic because they provide new critical economic functions or market infrastructure (for example if certain digital wallets become dominant) and potentially merit higher standards of operational risk oversight? To illustrate some of the issues, let’s return to the financial services value chain to consider some of the ways in which FinTech developments could affect financial stability. 15  See FSB, (2013), “Strengthening Oversight and Regulation of Shadow Banking, FSB, (2013).

Caleb M Fundanga: Bank of Zambia’s Information Dissemination Programme Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, on the launch of the Bank of Zambia Information Dissemination Programme, Lusaka, 28 May 2007. *  *  *  Governor, kindly give brief introductory remarks On behalf of the Bank of Zambia Board, management and staff, and indeed on my own behalf, I wish to sincerely thank the Zambia National Broadcasting Corporation (ZNBC) for this opportunity to launch the Bank of Zambia Information Dissemination Programme. This programme is part of our comprehensive strategy to inform the general public and all our stakeholders on the role of Bank of Zambia in the economy. What is the primary role of the Bank of Zambia? Just to remind the listeners, the Bank of Zambia’s primary role is to formulate and implement monetary and supervisory policies that will ensure price and financial system stability. Our vision, in this regard, is to become a World Class central bank. What is your general assessment of the recent performance of the Zambian economy? In the past few years, the Zambian economy has performed relatively well, recording positive real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, with inflation and interest rates coming down. Specifically, what have been the developments in output? During the period 2001-2005, growth in real GDP averaged 5.0% per annum. More recently, in 2006, it is estimated that the economy grew by close to 6%, marking the eighth consecutive year of positive real growth in output.
As we move to the next level, ethics and compliance will increasingly become a part of a single program. 2. Ethics and compliance as a tool for on-boarding risk  The last 20 years have demonstrated the benefit of ethics and compliance in identifying legal risk and taking operational measures to keep that identified legal risk within the organization’s accepted risk appetite. In most applications, though, compliance has been the vehicle that prompts the organization to reduce risk by constraining activity. In the financial services industry, correspondent banking provides an illustrative case. Correspondent banking is the business of effecting funds transfers for other financial institutions. Because the U.S. dollar is the international medium of exchange, financial institutions throughout the world have a need to effect dollar-denominated transfers of funds. Ethics and compliance professionals in U.S. banks have pointed out that this type of business presents several different legal risks: money laundering, terrorist financing, and sanctions evasion are the most obvious and the most notorious. There is no doubt that these compliance professionals are correct. One consequence of their being right, however, is that U.S. correspondent banks decided to “de-risk”. To execute on the de-risking mandate, many U.S. correspondents stopped providing correspondent banking services to those perceived to present such risk. As a result, certain elements of the global financial services industry now find it increasingly difficult to transact business in dollars.

In the immediate future this includes: (1) implementing, fully and rapidly, the measures agreed upon at the 21 July meeting of the Heads of State or Government of the euro area; (2) adopting sustainable fiscal policies and growth-enhancing structural measures so as to achieve or maintain credibility of sovereign signatures in global markets; and (3) enhancing the coordination and consistency of communication. Authorities must act in unison with a total commitment to safeguard financial stability. Supervisors should coordinate efforts to strengthen bank capital, including having recourse to backstop facilities, taking benefit from the possibility of the European Financial Stability Facility to lend to governments in order to recapitalise banks, including in non-programme countries. I thank you for your attention. 4