samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I am confident that the FOMC’s plan will reduce the size of the portfolio in a gradual and predictable, “no surprises” manner; that the FOMC’s plan will promote good market functioning in the Treasury and agency mortgagebacked securities markets as the portfolio declines; and that it will not prove disruptive to the U.S. mortgage market or the U.S. Treasury’s debt management program. And I am also confident that the plan’s design, and the FOMC’s clear communication prior to the plan’s implementation, will mitigate the risk of sharp or outsized asset price reactions to the decline in the portfolio’s size over time. Of course, we cannot and should not prevent Treasury and agency MBS prices from reacting to relevant economic and financial developments, or indeed from gradually moving over time in response to the progressive decline in the size of the Federal Reserve’s holdings and consequent increase in the amount of securities held by the private sector. In fact, we very much want asset prices to respond appropriately and fully to economic and financial news. Over the coming years, such news could span a wide variety of topics, such as central bank policy in this country and abroad, the ongoing debate over fiscal policy, and the evolution of expectations for the longer-run neutral rate of interest. That said, we do seek to mitigate the risk that our operational actions contribute to unnecessary surprise, disruption, or volatility. There is of course always a risk that events could unfold differently from expectations.

In its role as the regulator, the Bank of Albania’s vision is to contribute to the future, aiming to establish a highly adequate environment for boosting financial innovations and modernising the financial structure. Our regulatory regime aims at fostering innovation, being a positive catalyser and not a barrier. We aim at being avant-garde for a modern financial infrastructure. But experience shows that technology always is a step ahead and rapidly spreading. Technology has no limits and we, as regulators, should adopt rules and laws that these technologies be used by the consumers, individuals or businesses. At the same time, we should be aware of the risks that accompany these new technologies. Finding a perfect balance between the promotion of new ideas and the regulatory prudence constitutes one of the major challenges in this regard. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Bank of Albania has designed a payments regulatory framework, which paved the way for the development and modernisation. This framework provides all banks or other suppliers of financial services with the possibility to access the payment system in an equal and transparent way, thus contributing to the development of a competitive payment industry, without any asymmetry. Bank of Albania welcomes the contribution of innovation and technology in financial services as a support for achieving its strategic objectives for financial inclusion and reduction of cash use in the economy. These objectives serve crucially to both the transmission of the monetary policy and the safeguarding of financial stability.
Mr Tarullo added that “I would not apply the presumption in the case of certain de minimis acquisitions or in cases where asset dispositions were judged to offset any increase in systemic risk from the proposed new acquisiton”. 6  Earlier this year, the Board of Governors issued an order approving Capital One Financial Corporation’s acquisition of a federal savings bank, ING Bank. In that order, the Board set forth two principles that are relevant to this particular issue. First, the Board stated that it would generally find a significant adverse effect if the failure of the firm resulting from a merger or acquisition “would likely impair financial intermediation or financial market functioning so as to inflict material damage on the broader economy”. Second, the Board observed that there are some small acquisitions or mergers that would not raise a financial stability concern, such as “a proposal that involves an acquisition of less than $ billion in assets, [or] results in a firm with less than $ billion in total assets……”  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  banks submitted their “living wills” to the Federal Reserve and the FDIC this summer. We have reviewed the first iterations of their plans and are currently drafting feedback for the firms to incorporate in their next submissions. Through such “living wills”, regulators are gaining a better understanding of the impediments to an orderly bankruptcy. This is the necessary first phase in the process of determining how to ameliorate these impediments over time and then doing so.

Or would it be better to take the more direct, but less nuanced approach advocated by some and simply break up the most systemically important firms into smaller or simpler pieces in the hope that what emerges is no longer systemic and too big to fail?1 As I will explain tonight, I believe we should continue to press forward on the first path. But, if we fail to reach our destination by this route, then a blunter approach may yet prove necessary. As always, my views may not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve System. What is the too-big-to-fail problem? The root cause of “too big to fail” is the fact that in our financial system as it exists today, the failure of large complex financial firms generate large, undesirable externalities. These include disruption of the stability of the financial system and its ability to provide credit and other essential financial services to households and businesses. When this happens, not only is the financial sector disrupted, but its troubles cascade over into the real economy. There are negative externalities associated with the failure of any financial firm, but these are disproportionately high in the case of large, complex and interconnected firms. Although the moniker is “too big to fail”, the magnitude of these externalities does not depend simply on size. The size of the externalities also depends on the particular mix of business activities and the degree of interconnectedness with the rest of the financial industry.
Moreover, risk appetite at domestically focused banks is still high, as is reflected in the interest rate and affordability risk exposures in their mortgage business. Stress tests carried out by the Swiss National Bank suggest that these risks are currently sustainable, thanks to good capitalisation overall. Against the backdrop of persistently low interest rates, this is welcome. In the future, too, a decisive factor for financial system stability will be the banks’ ability to maintain risk exposures at a sustainable level. The current low interest rate environment creates strong incentives to increase interest rate or affordability risk exposures in lending business. For instance, there is a public debate about whether the imputed interest rate used to assess affordability should be reduced. The level of this imputed interest rate is not set by the  Page 2/3  Berne, 15 December 2016 Fritz Zurbrügg  News conference  regulator and varies between banks. However, it does play a key role in affordability assessments. Banks typically use a rate of 5%. Let me go into this topic in further detail. While today’s period of low interest rates could well persist and the rise in interest rates might only be very gradual, mortgages generally influence borrowers’ financial situation and banks’ balance sheets over a period of decades. As such, when assessing affordability and calibrating risk exposure, long-term interest rate developments are also relevant. Despite the current pressure on interest rate margins, banks should therefore continue to take a long-term view in their risk policy.

This requires effective cooperation with foreign authorities in a crisis, for which, in turn, the global resolution plans are an important prerequisite. As regards emergency plans, both Swiss big banks have introduced significant measures by setting up Swiss subsidiaries which combine systemically important functions in one entity. The key point here is that the Swiss units must be sufficiently independent from the rest of the bank, both operationally and financially. Both big banks have to implement their emergency plans by end-2019 at the latest. FINMA is responsible for the definitive assessment on whether the plans allow systemically important functions to be maintained in practice. Domestically focused banks  I would now like to turn to the domestically focused banks. For these banks, the mortgage and real estate markets still represent the greatest source of risk. Growth on these markets has remained fairly constant over the last six months, and at a relatively low level. At the same time, imbalances on the mortgage and real estate markets have fallen slightly overall, owing to developments in fundamentals. Despite this most recent development, the risks that have been building in the Swiss banking sector since the beginning of the low interest rate period in 2008 remain considerable. Thus, imbalances on the mortgage and real estate markets are still approximately as high as they were in 2014, when the sectoral countercyclical capital buffer was set at 2%.
Peter Pang: Managing capital flows – the search for a framework Welcoming address by Mr Peter Pang, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Asian Development Bank Institute and Bank for International Settlements Joint Seminar for the book launch on “Managing Capital Flows: the Search for a Framework”, Hong Kong, 21 April 2011. *  *  *  Good morning, Ladies and Gentlemen. 1. Let me thank Mr Kawai for inviting me to this event. It’s my honour to welcome you to this joint seminar by the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to mark the launch of the new book, “Managing Capital Flows: the Search for a Framework”. This is a topical issue right at the centre of attention of policymakers in this region. And as the title suggests, it is also a subject that we are still in search for an answer. 2. There is an old Chinese proverb saying that “water can keep a boat afloat but it can also capsize the vessel”. This suitably characterises the nature of international capital flows – it brings both benefits and risks to the development process in Asia. Capital inflows have been playing a key role in the economic development of the region – funding investments and bringing along technology and skill transfers. These were conducive to the emergence of the “four Asian Tigers” in the 1980s, and the rapid modernisation process of China, India and other Asian economies.

At the domestic level, there has been growing recognition that there is no one-sizefits-all approach to capital flows management. While conventional macroeconomic policies are useful in containing overheating in the overall economy, their deployment is often constrained by their broad-brush nature and the concern about attracting even more speculative inflows. Therefore, many developing economies have also adopted other prudential and capital account measures to manage capital inflows and to contain the buildup of excesses in specific sectors of the economy and the banking system. For example, some regional economies have recently tightened the mortgage underwriting standards of their banks, and limited banks’ foreign currency borrowing and derivatives positions. 12. To effectively manage capital flows, policymakers would need to improvise with the apparatuses in their policy toolkit and apply a policy mix tailored to their domestic circumstances. It is like the use of “Chinese herbal medicine” – we feel the pulse, carefully calibrate a combination of remedial herbs (i.e. policies), and follow through with continuous fine-tuning in the light of market reactions. The process is pragmatic and, to a large extent, interactive. 13. Given the need for customised solution at the national level, the sharing of experience is therefore very important. We welcome the timely publication of this book, which provides a good basis for studying the different approaches to managing capital inflows by different economies. Individual countries’ experiences would, collectively, help shed light on the formulation of an effective policy framework. 14.
Medium-term forecasts Current stance, short-term outlook and the assumptions Current stance relating to real sector variables that constitute the basis for the forecasts presented in the previous Inflation Report have been preserved in this Report to a great extent. Despite rapid growth in domestic demand in the last quarter of 2005, the ongoing increase in the ratio of investment expenditures to GDP eased the pressures on inflation imposed by the increase in demand by pushing the production capacity upwards. Moreover, continuing productivity proceeds limited the increase in costs, thus limiting the pressure on inflation. While producing forecasts, the short-term outlook relating to domestic supply and demand conditions was developed in the light of these findings. Real interest and real exchange rate variables, which determine the relationship of supply-demand conditions to inflation and constitute the starting point of the monetary transmission mechanism, are also significant components of the assumption set that constitute the basis for medium-term forecasts. It is assumed that in the current situation, real interest rates are not at a level that can exert pressure on credit increases and demand conditions. Nevertheless, under a main scenario in which the current program will continue to be implemented, macro and political stability will not deteriorate, structural reforms and, accordingly, long-term capital inflows as well as productivity increases will continue, it is assumed that the New Turkish lira will retain its strong position and will continue to support the decline in inflation.

4  BIS Review 67/2006  Considering the fact that seasonal price movements are determinant in consumer prices, it will be helpful to analyze the Special CPI Aggregates (SCA), excluding seasonal products, with respect to the course of inflation. The decline in the annual rate of increases in the SCA-E* index that has been continuing since the beginning of 2005, which is calculated by excluding seasonal products from the SCA-E index excluding energy, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products, had slowed down by the first quarter of 2006. On the other hand, it is observed that the downward trend in the seasonally adjusted SCA–D* index, which is calculated by excluding energy, unprocessed food, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and gold, continued in the first quarter of the year as well and the main trend of inflation was downwards (Graph 6). Graph 6. CPI and Special CPI Aggregates (E* and D*) (Annual Percentage Change) 10  9  8  7  6 CPI E* 5  D* (Seasonally Adjusted)  Mar-06  Feb-06  Jan-06  Dec-05  Nov-05  Oct-05  Sep-05  Aug-05  Jul-05  Jun-05  May-05  Apr-05  Mar-05  Feb-05  Jan-05  4  E*: CPI excluding energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and seasonal products D*: CPI excluding energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, unprocessed food and gold Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Producer prices rose by 2.48 percent in the first quarter of 2006.
The weakening of the US currency resulted in a further decrease in the dollar’s share of foreign currency reserves. Recently, in an effort to prevent the dollar’s share from dropping too low and with a view to rebalancing, we bought dollars again on a number of occasions. Furthermore, as part of the 2004 strategy, the proportion of government bonds was also reduced in favour of other borrowers’ bonds. The required minimum rating for bond investments was lowered from A2 to BBB, thus covering the entire “investment grade” range. Corporate bonds have now also been added to the National Bank’s investment universe, albeit only those of foreign companies. Currently, roughly 4% of both foreign currency reserves and free assets are invested in corporate bonds. The credit quality of all our investments is still very high. Borrowers with the top rating AAA account for over 70% of the investments. Close to 20% bear the AA rating. The remaining investments have an A or a BBB. The average residual maturity (duration) of all bonds held by the National Bank was kept at 4-5 years. The first investments in equities issued exclusively by foreign companies will be made at the beginning of 2005. The addition of equities and corporate bonds is likely to improve the degree of diversification of the investments and will contribute to the achievement of slightly higher returns in the medium term. The main difference between the investment structures of foreign currency reserves and free assets is their currency profile.

The findings from the market, needs assessment and scope for intervention were materialised 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  in a National Strategy on the Modernisation of Retail Payment 2018–2023) The Strategy aims for improvements in the retail payment market to provide Albanian citizens with more options to choose from for their daily transactions, more easily and more cost-effective, by supporting the objective for a broader-based financial inclusion. The strategy lays down concrete and measurable objectives, such as the doubling of the population having a bank account (from 38% in 2018 to 70% in 2022), the increase in the number of electronic payments per capita, from 4.3% in 2016, to 10 in 2022 (increase by 130%). The Strategy aims also legal and regulatory improvements, which lay the foundations for  innovative initiatives, and a level playing field. In this regard, the Bank of Albania finalised the drafting of the law “On Payment Services in the Republic of Albania”. The approval and implementation of this law will provide a crucial contribution to establishing services at low cost and easily accessible by the public, and promoting competition and innovation also based on a prudential consumer protection regime. This will be the theme of the first session of the Conference. Also, the Strategy aims at infrastructural improvements. In this regard, a set of measures are envisaged to promote interaction among various actors from the infrastructural point of view, aiming at reducing costs, in particular, for end users.
Given the famous  Page 10  ‘long and variable lags’ in monetary policy transmission, it is the persistent component of inflation – that component of inflation that will still be there once the lags in monetary policy transmission unwind – that is the relevant object for the MPC’s attention. But judging inflation persistence in real time is difficult. By its nature, a persistent series does not change much from one MPC meeting to the next. Such relatively high frequency month-to-month fluctuations cannot be the main driver of a series whose evolution must be dominated by lower frequency dynamics, if it is indeed to be persistent. In coming to an assessment of inflation persistence, the MPC has emphasised the importance of domestic price and wage setting behaviour, since this has historically proved to be more persistent that external drivers such as commodity price shocks. This has naturally led to a focus on wage developments, on services price inflation and – as new data sources, such as the Bank’s Decision Maker Panel, have become available – on corporate pricing behaviour as key indicators of inflation persistence, and thus in turn of the prospects for monetary policy. This focus is evident in the analysis present in the MPC’s recent Monetary Policy Reports, and in the indicators highlighted in the MPC’s published minutes and policy summary. But there is no single indicator that can adequately summarise the ‘instantaneous persistence’ of inflation.

The text has also benefitted from helpful comments from Andrew Bailey, Ben Broadbent, Fabrizio Cadamagnani,  Page 11  Jonathan Haskell, Josh Jones, Catherine Mann, Rhys Phillips, Dave Ramsden, Andrea Rosen, Martin Seneca, Fergal Shortall and Silvana Tenreyro for which I am most grateful. Opinions (and all remaining errors and omissions) are my own. 1. See Money Marketeers of New York University  . 2. Another – and, in my view, largely equivalent – way to characterise this process of ‘normalisation’ is as an ‘exit’ from the exceptional and unconventional policy measures introduced in the face of the global financial crisis and its aftermath. From the introduction of those measures, it was recognised widely in the central bank community that such exit would pose challenges for the design, implementation and communication of monetary policy. 3. Moreover, the large portfolio of asset purchases accumulated as a result of QE has been run down in parallel with the rise in Bank Rate. Since March 2022, the Bank of England has ceased to reinvest the proceeds of maturing bonds held in its Asset Purchase Facility (APF) used to house the QE portfolio. As of November 2022, the Bank has sold gilts from the APF to the market. Corporate bond holdings in the APF have been reduced by similar means. 4. The concept of a ‘neutral’ balance sheet remains even more elusive than that of a ‘neutral’ interest rate at both empirical and conceptual levels, so I focus on the interest rate dimension here. 5.
Banks must decide whether they aim to be central to their customers’ needs or they are content to be merely balance sheet providers, where someone else owns the relationship with the customer. In the second scenario, banks would have no brand affinity or loyalty from their customers and would be easily replaceable. As things stand, the banking industry is surely struggling on this front. Today, no bank is placed among the top twenty global brands in terms of value. Even banks which were there a decade ago have since slipped off the list. Banks must work hard to ensure that they remain the first choice for their customers, and that means taking a much broader view of their relationship with customers. Banks need to consider how they can help solve their customers’ problems and improve their lives, while being cognizant of their broader social purpose to promote inclusive, sustainable prosperity. After all, banks can no longer take customer loyalty as a given. A recent banking consumer study conducted by Accenture found that 40% of customers expressed decreased dependence on their bank as their primary financial services provider and 42% said they had used non-bank providers for financial services in the past year. A good example of non-banking providers displacing traditional banks is Kakao Bank in South Korea. Kakao Bank was launched in 2017 as a digital bank by Korean Internet company Kakao, which also owns the popular free mobile messaging service KakaoTalk.

18.11.2020  Opening address of the conference “Consumers and the postCOVID mortgage market” ADICAE Margarita Delgado Deputy Governor  Good afternoon. I would like to thank ADICAE for kindly inviting me to address you on the opening of this conference on the post-COVID mortgage market. Allow me a minor comment regarding the conference title: I fear it is still too soon to talk about the mortgage market situation after COVID, although there is evidently no lack of will to do so. The latest science news on the progress of the different vaccines gives us hope that we may shortly look to the future without seeing the pandemic on the horizon. Let us trust this will be so. In any event, beyond the effects this health crisis may be having in the short term, housing affordability has been a very relevant subject in Spanish society for decades. Worldwide, we are one of the countries with the highest homeownership percentages, and the mortgage market has unquestionably been a decisive factor in making such housing affordability possible. This conference is directed at consumers, although if you will allow me the technical detail, national accounts treats house purchases as “investment”, not as consumption. This is clearly the case and, almost always, this is the most important investment that we “consumers” make in our lives. Given the importance and scale of this purchase, the authorities should watch over individuals’ interests.