samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
However, some economists suggested that low inflation might be detrimental should real rigidities and shocks arise. Gertler and Trigari (2004), Shimer (2005), Hall (2005), Krause and Lubik (2007), Christoffel and Linzert (2005) and Faia (2006), as well as Blanchard and Gali (2008) introduced labor market in the standard New Keynesian model along with real wage rigidities. For instance, Blanchard and Gali (2008) showed that “in the presence of labor market frictions and real wage rigidities, strict inflation stabilization does not deliver the best monetary policy [...] the reason is that distortions vary with shocks. As a result, strict inflation stabilization can lead to inefficient, large, and persistent movements in unemployment in response to productivity shocks. [...] Optimal monetary policy implies some accommodation of inflation and limits the size of the fluctuations in unemployment”. On the other hand, in spite of sticking to their message on low and stable inflation, central bankers were flexible in implementing this model as shown by three practices in particular (Blanchard et al., 2010). The first one refers to the return to the inflation target after experiencing certain deviations, which was smooth rather than abrupt. The second one refers to the fact that supply side-induced deviations from the target were allowed when expectations were well-anchored.

(2010) stated that “it was tempting for macroeconomists and policymakers alike to take much of the credit for the steady decrease in cyclical fluctuations from the early 1980s on and to conclude that we knew how to conduct macroeconomic policy. We did not resist temptation. The crisis clearly forces us to question our earlier assessment”. Since we participate today in a seminar dedicated to banking and financial history, please allow me to put things into perspective. In the 1970s, inflation was high and there was a divorce between theoreticians and practitioners concerning the monetary policy effectiveness on real variables. In line with Sargent and Wallace’s Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition (1976), towards the end of the 1970s many were thinking of monetary policy as being powerless also in the short term, not only in the long term, as Friedman (1968), Phelps (1968) and Lucas (1972) had already stated. However, practitioners were aware that their monetary policy decisions were effective in the short run with respect to both inflation and activity. This divorce lasted for a while, until the New Keynesian economists, starting with Fischer (1977) and up to Taylor (1980) and Calvo (1983), found solutions to incorporate nominal rigidities into their models with a view to putting them in line with practice. The economists belonging to the Real Business Cycle mainstream opted for exploring the lack of rigidities to the maximum and created general equilibrium models.
The output gap is subsequently one of the factors that play a key role in the inflation cycle. All things being equal, the growth outlook thus  BIS Review 95/2001  3  exerts an influence on monetary policy, namely the worse the outlook, the lower the interest rate, and the contrary. For as long as inflation remains at its present high level, however, it is unavoidable to allow the output gap to shrink sufficiently and the Central Bank cannot apply its instruments at this stage to prevent that happening. High interest rates are counter-inflationary The Central Bank has held the view that, until clear signs emerge that its August inflation forecast will hold good, it is still not safe to lower interest rates. Impulsive action could entail a risk that inflation will magnify even further, with very dire consequences for households, businesses and economic growth conditions. Claims have also been heard that Iceland’s high interest rates are inflationary rather than counter-inflationary. The Central Bank does not agree with this view, which cannot be supported with economic theories, studies or research. On the contrary, there is every indication that interest rates have a similar effect in Iceland to that elsewhere. The Icelandic economy was showing signs of strong overheating which apparently peaked last year. It is beyond doubt that the tight monetary stance made a major contribution towards cooling the economy.

And such a winding down was necessary, too, since great macroeconomic imbalances had emerged, reflected most clearly in an unacceptable current account deficit and inflationary pressures. It is therefore inevitable that the output gap will narrow in order to bring down inflation, and that national income will drop even further in order to achieve a significant reduction in the current account deficit, which is far beyond a sustainable long-term level. High interest rates can be painful, not least for the households and businesses that have been imprudent in their consumption and investments recently and have relied too heavily on the facilities of credit institutions. It is out of the question for the Central Bank to base its interest rate policy on the actions of the least prudent members of the community. This can only be based on provisions made in laws and the joint declaration by the Government and the Central Bank this March, i.e. to promote price stability. This is the guiding aim of central bank activities in industrial countries around the world, because it creates a climate for economic growth and greater well-being for citizens. In a world of free capital movements and greatly enhanced access to credit compared with earlier times, businesses and households, and credit institutions too, must find their bearings for themselves. Understandably, many people complain about high interest rates, but the lively debates in recent weeks have often revealed excessive faith in the effect that an interest rate cut would have on economic developments.
The firm has access to a pool of liquidity providers, and will compare pre-trade price quotes, perhaps making use of proprietary TCA tools from those providing liquidity. It might execute some trades electronically. But it has bigger costs to worry about than FX trade execution alone – including the broader bundle of services it needs across asset classes. And it is conscious that larger FX trades involve material risk, including as a result of market dynamics it doesn’t necessarily understand. So it will also work to maintain broader relationships with liquidity providers – and will tend to revert to voice trading with a trusted counterparty for larger orders, or at times of heightened volatility. It may not always have complete clarity on the basis on which such trades are executed (internalised vs externally traded, principal vs agent) or rejected. And it recognises that, in seeking quotes, it may be leaking information about its position. But broadly speaking it is content with the service it receives on FX, and feels it has bigger fish to fry elsewhere. In many ways, it is hard to label this case ‘bad’. The firm is trying to inform itself about market trends. But it recognises that FX is a professional market, whose complexities it needs assistance to navigate. It knows it may not always be getting the finest price, or the perfect service – but feels that the cost/benefit case for investing in a lot of extra data or understanding is not in its favour.

As the UK’s Fair and Effective Markets Review argued in 201512, you can’t evaluate an FX transaction if you (or your agent) don’t know when it was executed (timestamping), why some trades were rejected and others not (reject codes), whether your counterparty was acting as principal or agent, how long your request to trade was held before a decision was made (hold time), or what was happening during that hold period. Good disclosures should not be documents written by lawyers for lawyers, aimed solely at limiting liability. They should be clear and practical tools to inform trader-to-trader contact. The FX Global Code13 stresses the importance of clear and effective disclosures in many of its high level principles. And in February this year, the Global FX Committee (GFXC) published supplementary guidance on the key characteristics that good disclosures should have, covering: content, accessibility, clarity and review frequency.14 At the Bank of England, we take disclosures from our own wide range of trading counterparties very seriously. We recently reviewed these documents to ensure firms were following through on their commitments under the Code. Most covered the topic headings we would expect to see, and the best scored well across a broad range of criteria. But few had been reviewed since the GFXC’s guidance came out. And in general we found significant room for improvement, in particular on clarity and accessibility. A recent review of public disclosures by Risk magazine15 came to similar conclusions.
Gross external reserves increased to $ million at end 2010 compared to $ at end 2009, which could cover six months of imports and cushion the country against external shocks. External borrowing was directed towards highly concessional loans that met rigorous criteria. The level of external debt increased from $ in 2009 to $ in 2010 but remains at modest risk and is sustainable compared to levels before our eligibility to the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC) in 2006. Following the successful completion of the IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) – supported Programme in December 2009, the country adopted a successor Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme beginning July, 2010 and was able to successfully complete the first review on 6th December 2010. Financial sector developments in 2010 Your Excellency, distinguished ladies and gentlemen, allow me to take you through the status of financial sector developments during 2010:   On the banking sector, the number of commercial banks was reduced from 14 to 13 with Procredit Bank being taken over by EcoBank, due to an increase in the capital requirements which did not fit in with the Procredit Bank’s business model.   Provisional figures for the banking industry in November 2010, reveal an 18 percent increase in total assets in the last twelve months to almost Le2.0 trillion.   The industry profits increased by 238 percent based on unaudited figures, with five of the commercial banks recording a loss compared to seven last year.

On the whole, our discussions were quite fruitful, with some of the issues raised such as governance structure, compliance with statutory requirements, prudence in lending operations, capitalization, and others related to deposit and credit concentration were deeply discussed. The commercial banks also gave valuable comments which were very useful in resolving some of the effects of the global financial crisis on our economy. Your Excellency, distinguished ladies and gentlemen, you may recall that six pilot community banks were established by the Bank of Sierra Leone. However, given the problems encountered by the community banks, a committee comprising the chairmen of the community banks was setup by the Bank of Sierra Leone to review the poor performance of these banks. As a result of the study, corrective action was taken by the central bank in collaboration with the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) to develop a rescue plan of action to comprehensively address distressed community banks and enhance the efficiency of their operations. As part of our currency management drive, the Bank of Sierra Leone issued on 14th May 2010, a new four-note series of resized banknotes to improve security features and help denomination-recognition for the visually impaired and illiterate. The design themes and portraits of the previous series (which date back to early 1990s) have been retained, but the Bank has taken the opportunity to make the notes more secure.
• For instance, the debut of project bond issuance by PT Paiton, Indonesia’s second-largest independent power producer, reflects growing demand for Asian infrastructure debt. Singapore is well positioned as a gateway to investment opportunities in Asia. •  We offer a world class financial centre, with a sound regulatory framework and business-friendly environment. •  With its pan-Asian reach, Singapore is an ideal location for investors to set up base and tap on opportunities in the region. Let me highlight two things Singapore provides to connect global investors to Asia:  •  first, a compelling asset management ecosystem; and  http://www.imas.gov.sg/News-and-Publications/Speeches-and-Monetary-Policy-Statem... 21-07-18  Connecting Global Markets Supporting Asias Growth  •  Page 4 of 7  second, a treasury centre with a comprehensive suite of risk management solutions. Singapore is a leading asset management hub for institutional investors and fund managers to access pan-Asian opportunities. •  Assets under management in Singapore have grown by an average 15% each year over the last five years, reaching $ trillion in 2016. • About 80% of funds are sourced from outside Singapore. • Two-thirds are invested in Asia. •  Interestingly, we have seen faster growth in alternative AUM (17%) compared to traditional AUM (3%). •  This points to the growing pool of investors setting up in Singapore to access private market opportunities in Asia. We are taking three major initiatives to further strengthen the asset management ecosystem further.

•  Asian companies are choosing to stay private for longer and becoming more receptive to venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) financing. •  Asia is already a major destination for VC and PE investments. • Last year, VC and PE investments into Asia reached $ billion, accounting for 30% of global investments, surpassing Europe for the first time. •  With close to 7,000 start-ups in Southeast Asia alone, there are opportunities abound for private investments in the region. http://www.imas.gov.sg/News-and-Publications/Speeches-and-Monetary-Policy-Statem... 21-07-18  Connecting Global Markets Supporting Asias Growth  Page 3 of 7  The demand for infrastructure financing in Asia is outpacing countries’ funding capacity. •  According to the ADB, Asia will need around $ trillion annually in infrastructure financing between now and 2030 to sustain economic growth. •  Currently, more than 90% of infrastructure investment is financed by governments. •  This is not sustainable if the demand for infrastructure is to be met. The challenge for governments in Asia is this: to make infrastructure more attractive to private capital. •  At their recent meeting in Singapore, ASEAN Finance Ministers agreed to accelerate infrastructure development through mobilising private capital. This means mainstream infrastructure financing as an asset class. •  The prospects are good. There is a strong pipeline of projects in the transport and energy sectors, diversified across the ASEAN countries. •  We have seen some early success.
This is underpinned by its great potential as a competitive form of financial intermediation. In Malaysia, the Islamic banking system has evolved into a dynamic, competitive and internationally integrated industry. In this recent five years, the Islamic banking industry has continued to record double-digit growth rate of about 20 percent. It is also an important contributor to the strong levels of profitability recorded by the banking groups. In terms of assets, the Islamic banking sector now accounts for 12 percent of the total banking system. It is envisaged that by year 2010, the Islamic banking industry will constitute 20 percent of the overall banking industry market share. Financing extended by the Islamic financial institutions to SMEs has shown an encouraging upward trend, growing at an average annual rate of 34.2% for the period 2001-2006. As at end-2006, Islamic financing to SMEs reached RM10 billion, accounting for 9.6% of total SME loans outstanding of the banking system. This is a significant increase compared with the amount of Islamic financing extended to SMEs at end-2000, which was only RM1.7 billion or 2.4% of total SME loans outstanding of the banking system. Indeed, there is great potential for Islamic financial institutions to play a more significant role in providing greater choice to SMEs to meet their financing needs. Increasingly now, SMEs from the different sectors require more customised and differentiated financial products and services that accommodate their unique requirements. This reflects the more highly diversified nature of the Malaysian economy.

In view of the potential of SMEs in the economy, significant emphasis has been accorded by the Government in developing and strengthening the capacity of the SMEs to contribute to the economy. Twelve Government Ministries and 38 Agencies are involved in supporting the development of SMEs. To ensure the effectiveness of the strategies to support SMEs, the Government established the National SME Development Council in June 2004. The Council, chaired by the Prime Minister, provides the policy direction of the programmes to support the SMEs, and to ensure that these programmes are implemented effectively. Bank Negara Malaysia is the Secretariat to the Council. The Government's commitment to promoting the role of the SME sector in the economy has been to provide an enabling environment for their development. A comprehensive approach has therefore been adopted. In 2007, a total of 190 key programmes, involving a financial commitment of RM3.7 billion, is being implemented by the Government, to strengthen the enabling infrastructure, to build the capacity and capability of the SMEs, and to enhance SME access to financing. Indeed, for access to financing, several key strategies and measures have already been implemented to ensure that SMEs, at different stages of the business life cycle, have adequate access to financing. The banking system continues to be the most significant source of financing in the economy. An important strategy to ensure access to financing by the SMEs has therefore been to increase access to financing from the banking institutions.
Over time, it should also reduce the risk of local and regional crises and their contagion effect on the rest of the world. There is still a long way to go. As far as Norway is concerned, we must act on the assumption that we will continue to live in an unstable world. The financial crises have shown that a small country is vulnerable to international turbulence. The Norwegian economy is fragile and vulnerable. Stability and buffer against financial shocks Norway has also experienced a banking crisis. If nothing else, we learned from it. Laws, regulations and supervision have been tightened. Financial institutions place greater emphasis on risk management. The debt burden of households is lower than in the 1980s, and for a long period the business sector was also more cautious about incurring new debt. BIS Review 20/1999  4  Losses at Norwegian financial institutions have been low since the banking crisis. There is greater uncertainty now as the economy is approaching a turning point. The sharp growth in fixed income business has led to a substantial increase in corporate debt, which has been reflected in the high level of credit growth in recent years. The rise in interest rates has made it more demanding for households and enterprises to service their debt in the short term, but has had a restraining effect on credit growth.

If fiscal policy is systematically too expansionary during booms and when petroleum revenues are higher than expected, Norway will in periods experience pressures in the economy and rising price and cost inflation. This will often give rise to situations where the krone depreciates, thereby undermining the credibility of our monetary policy. There is a price to be paid for this. Market participants will lose confidence in the krone and demand a higher interest rate for maintaining krone positions rather than switching to other currencies. The result is a permanently higher interest rate level in Norway compared with other countries. Intricate relationships Earlier, monetary policy was based on extensive use of interventions – in other words, purchases and sales of foreign exchange in order to defend the krone exchange rate. Denmark has used this instrument with positive results. There are probably many reasons for this in addition to its stable terms of trade. For instance, fiscal policy in Denmark has on numerous occasions made a substantial contribution to exchange rate stability. Over time our experience of large-scale and persistent interventions has been mixed. When the central bank intervenes heavily to defend the krone, market participants may easily move into a game situation and perceive central bank intervention as an interesting opportunity to make a profit. Market operators know that a situation in which the krone is being propped up only because Norges Bank is buying kroner cannot continue. It is then tempting to take reverse positions in the foreign exchange market in relation to the central bank.
Fourth, as regards public opinion, I trust that we have all to exert maximum efforts to improve explanations, pedagogy, communication with the public at large. We are living in very vivid and exemplary national democracies and in a European Union where the ultimate judge is the people. We have to convince our public opinion at large that each individual would be better off - with more growth and more jobs - if we could deliver the reforms of the Lisbon agenda . The ECB will do all what it can to help improving pedagogy in this respect. And five, I confirm here that we, in the Governing Council of the ECB, know that structural reforms are not easy to work out, that it needs much courage and determination from Governments, Parliaments and social partners. We will back in the future as we have in the past this courage and this determination. BIS Review 6/2004  3

First, we have a government which has the capacity to think long term and implement tough policies to resolve problems and transform the economy. The government is not bogged down by disruptive and unproductive domestic political pit fights. Our basic economic strategy is right; our implementation good. We are moving up the value chain to more technology- and knowledge-intensive manufacturing. We are growing our services sector in areas like tourism, healthcare, education, banking and insurance. We are pumping money and talent into R & D. We have enlarged our economic space through FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) and moved into new areas like the Middle East. Foreign Minister George Yeo has just visited Libya and Yemen, the first Singapore Minister to do so. At the right time, I will go there too to strengthen our relations. Minister Mentor is himself engaging Russia and Kazakhstan to open up business opportunities. And if there are opportunities in North Korea, we will go there too. I dare say that our Ministers are not just good at forging relations but also enterprising like businessmen. Second, we have intelligent, hard-working and adaptable people. They know the world has changed and is constantly changing. They know they must run ahead of the pack in order not to be eaten by  BIS Review 55/2007  1  the proverbial lion. Some Singaporeans grumble and complain about the government and its tough policies but basically, they are nagging the government to listen to them more. Singaporeans are pragmatic and disciplined.