samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
17 One year on, I am proud to share that all SFEMC members, across sell-side and buy-side, have issued Statements to the Code. A significant number of banks operating in Singapore have also already issued the Statements, with many of them publishing these Statements on their websites and public registers. Notwithstanding this commendable outcome thus far, SFEMC will continue to work with the key industry associations in Singapore to further promote and embed the Code. For example, we have recently collaborated with the Association of Banks in Singapore to encourage all banks with FX operations in Singapore to issue Statements by the end of this year. 18 SFEMC will also be establishing a public register in the second half of this year, for market participants in Singapore to post their Statements. This is in response to demand from market participants. 19 SFEMC believes that having such a public register in Singapore would help in our promotion efforts in getting more market participants, particularly buy-side entities, to issue Statements to the Code. 20 Where your firm has issued a Statement, we welcome you to publish your Statement on the SFEMC public register when this is ready. Developing Singapore to be an e-trading hub for FX 21 I am confident that the Code will further strengthen the integrity and vibrancy of our FX market. This will complement our co-creation efforts with industry players, like yourselves, to grow the FX market further.

Puerto Rico’s economy has, unfortunately, been in a deep economic slump that has lasted for nearly a decade. Over the past few years, public sector job losses have continued to weigh against modest job gains in the Island’s private sector. And ongoing difficulties in the Island’s labor market continue, with labor force participation still alarmingly low, and unemployment stubbornly high at a rate well above the mainland’s. The good news is that we are finally beginning to see some firming in economic conditions on the Island. At the other end of the spectrum, New York City has been experiencing a robust recovery. While the Great Recession was clearly the worst post-war downturn in U.S. history, New York City was not as badly affected as the rest of the country. As of April, almost five years since the end of the recession, the nation has recovered nearly all of the jobs that were lost. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  By contrast, New York City reached this milestone more than two years ago. And, as we’ve highlighted in previous press briefings, this rebound has occurred despite the lack of any significant recovery in employment on Wall Street. The recovery has generally progressed at a more moderate pace in the other parts of our region. Consistent with historical patterns, Upstate New York as a whole has been growing modestly, with Buffalo and Rochester doing a little bit better than their upstate peers.
It is equally important to avoid an inflation rate that is too low, as it is to avoid an inflation rate that is too high. The situation in the labour market The supply of labour is limited in the Norwegian economy at present. We have a tight labour market. The labour force participation rate is high. Extensive use of disability and sickness benefits is limiting the supply of labour. Reforms such as contractual pension schemes, which were expanded through the 1990s, cash allowances for families with small children and an increased number of vacation days this year and next also contribute to reducing the labour supply. Recently, unemployment has declined again. Adjusted for normal seasonal variations, the number of registered unemployed now stands at 59000, or 2.5 per cent of the labour force. Of these, about ¾ percentage point, or about 16 000, have been unemployed for more than 6 months. The tight labour market is the result of a high activity level in the Norwegian economy. Growth in household and enterprise debt is strong. The phasing in of petroleum revenues in the years ahead will keep demand for labour at a high level. The centralised income settlements in Norway have been an arena of coordination, where considerable emphasis has been placed at times on overall employment. This has contributed to low unemployment levels in our country. But we have also experienced that the income settlements may be a source of economic disturbances.

In our open economy, with a floating exchange rate, it can be assumed that an increase in wage growth of one percentage point without  BIS Review 72/2001  1  any monetary policy response will gradually translate into a corresponding increase in price inflation 1 unless wage increases are anchored in higher productivity. When Norges Bank concludes that the key rate should be changed, the change will in most cases be made gradually. This is because there is normally uncertainty about the situation in the economy, potential disturbances to the economy and how fast an interest rate change will affect price inflation. But we will not always take a gradualist approach. A rapid and pronounced change in the interest rate is appropriate if, for example, heightening turbulence in financial markets or a cost-push shock resulting from negotiations indicates that confidence in monetary policy is in jeopardy. Norges Bank analyses the inflation outlook in separate inflation reports, which are published three times a year. Further assessments are presented every sixth week in connection with the Executive Board's monetary policy meetings. Higher interest rates curb demand for goods and services and reduce inflation. Lower interest rates have the opposite effect. If evidence suggests that inflation with unchanged interest rates will be higher than 2½ per cent, the interest rate will be increased. If it appears that inflation with unchanged interest rates will be lower than 2½ per cent, the interest rate will be reduced. There is symmetry here.
Promising early years From the onset big techs were "data rich" and benefited from a global customer base and strong brand recognition. In order to keep their lead in innovation, big techs acquired a large number of start-ups and fin techs. In the end, their huge financial means enabled them to set up, and then consolidate, powerful oligopolies. In the wake of US GAFAMs, Chinese BATX emerged to serve their domestic market, and expanded into Asia. All big techs started diversifying their activities, among others in the financial sector where they first launched innovative digital means of payments, for instance Google Pay in 2011 and Apple Pay in 2014. This chapter of the book is crystal-clear: big techs were highly successful in this area. Digital / mobile wallet payments represent around 27% of e-commerce payments in Europe, 36% in India and 69% in Asiai. Not only do payments feed into their "DNAii loop", but big techs helped turn payments into a glittering business, with e-commerce and social media offering opportunities for innovations to prosper. The value of cashless payments consequently increased by 15% in 2021 in both advanced and emerging economiesiii, even more quickly than the trend of the last decade, and this acceleration is expected to continue in the next few years, notably for walletsiv. 1/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Big techs were then considered major competitors of banks and financial institutions – and sometimes even central banks.

The whole point of a model is to abstract from a wide range of factors in order to think clearly about one particular issue. Let me describe an example of what I shall call “the Greenspan approach to economics”. It concerns the ‘Lucas critique’. Robert Lucas’ 1976 paper encouraged economists to construct models which incorporated explicit optimising behaviour by households and firms. Unfortunately, some of them urged policy-makers to apply the lessons from their models as literally as the enthusiasts of the engineering approach to macroeconomic policy had done so in the 1950s and 1960s. The Greenspan approach to economics would advise great caution. The insight of the Lucas critique is that we need to think about the responses of rational households and firms when analysing the consequences of alternative policies. But the likelihood that any particular model captures how the real economy would respond to a given change in policy is vanishingly small. Lucas did not pretend that there existed a single “true” model from which could be drawn unequivocal predictions about the impact of policy changes. The second lesson from Alan’s time at the Federal Reserve is that empirical knowledge is not confined to the econometric analysis of official statistics. There are other and often crucially important pieces of information that come to us in more qualitative form. These include information from businesses about what they see happening in the economy. Perhaps the most famous example of this in recent years is the productivity acceleration in the US in the mid-1990s.
Alongside this, since 2019, the PRA and FCA have co-chaired the Climate Financial Risk Forum (CFRF) which has delivered a series of guides incorporating good practice ‘for industry, by industry’ which should enable firms to progress in response to the expectations in SS3/19. Where a proportionate approach is a firm’s preferred option due to lack of resources, the CFRF outputs should help to mitigate this issue. Update on regulatory reform It is worth noting that when carrying out its general functions (as opposed to taking individual supervisory decisions),5 the Financial Services and Markets Act requires the PRA to have regard to differences in the nature and objectives of different kinds of business organisation, including Mutuals. When making rules the PRA is required to consider and explain whether the rules would have a significantly different impact on Mutuals compared to non-Mutuals. This consideration is covered in our policy-making communications, including Consultation Papers and Policy Statements. The most significant package of policy consultation coming up – in 2022 – will be in relation to Solvency II. HM Treasury announced a review of Solvency II last year and the government has set three objectives for it: to protect policyholders and ensure the safety and soundness of firms, to support insurance firms to provide long-term capital to underpin growth, and to spur a vibrant, innovative and internationally competitive insurance sector. The package of policy changes will be designed to deliver on all three objectives.

This worrying level of inflation is largely the result of both the direct and indirect effects of past surges in energy and food prices at the global level. Moreover, wage growth has been picking up in recent quarters, at a time when labour productivity growth has decelerated, resulting in sharp increases in unit labour costs. Looking ahead, on the basis of current commodity futures prices, the annual HICP inflation rate is likely to remain well above levels consistent with price stability for quite some time, moderating only gradually during the course of 2009. Consistent with this view, the September ECB staff projections foresee average annual HICP inflation at between 3.4% and 3.6% in 2008, and between 2.3% and 2.9% in 2009. The higher inflation projections for 2008 and 2009 mainly reflect higher energy prices and, to a lesser extent, higher food and services prices than assumed previously. In this context, it is important to recall the conditional nature of the ECB staff projections. They are based on a number of assumptions that are of a purely technical nature and unrelated to policy intentions. In particular, the technical assumptions for short-term interest rates reflect market expectations as at mid-August. Moreover, it should be noted that the projections are based on the assumption that oil and non-oil commodity prices, while remaining at elevated levels, will exhibit greater stability over the projection horizon than has been the case in recent months, in line with prevailing futures prices.
I have also tried to show how this affects the bank’s capacity to make a profit. Some changes are the result of active decisions by the Riksbank. Decisions the Riksbank has made as a preventive measure to be sufficiently prepared to manage a changed situation. I am of course mainly thinking of the reinforcement of the foreign currency reserve here, but also the decision to acquire a portfolio of Swedish securities again. Other changes, such as the decline in the use of cash and international interest rates, are beyond the Riksbank’s control. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  Changes in the Riksbank’s balance sheet will lead to the bank’s profits slowly shrinking. We must therefore consider more carefully than before how we can best fund our assets. The expected rise in interest rates has a much greater effect on the bank’s profits in the short term, but on the other hand the effect is temporary. Although there is no lack of challenges, the Riksbank is financially strong. This is important to be able to perform our task in the best possible way. The bank has substantial equity, which may well be needed if the Riksbank is forced to adopt unconventional methods to bring up inflation. Finally: Does the Riksbank have to make a profit? Yes, it does actually. We must be able to cover our costs. And we must be able to build up buffers.

The rapid changes that are taking place in our environment thus demands new skills and ability to manage new challenges and capitalise on the new opportunities. Indeed, the role of leadership has changed. Leaders not only must able to see the new emerging opportunities, but also to be able to deal with the high level of unpredictability. The industry leaders need to  BIS Review 37/2008  3  be visionary and comprehend future trends, chart strategic directions and adapt to change. Effective leaders in this era, will be those who are continuous learners, who are on the cutting edge of excellence, and who have the humility to recognise the need to reinvent themselves and inspire their organization to adapt to the new environment. The investment in human capital development is thus important for future survival. Human capital development has become of strategic importance and is integral to the success of an organisation. This needs to occur at all levels of the organisation. Senior executives need to take the lead and devote a considerable amount of their time to this initiative. Human resource development functions is integral to the talent management process and in supporting the human capital management strategy. Let me conclude my remarks. The inclusion of women into mainstream economic activity is no longer an option, but a prerequisite for sustained economic development. The strive therefore has to be to provide the enabling environment and to set the standards so that the new multi-polar world will be a more inclusive one.
Since then the picture in the UK has been clouded by the impact of the Brexit vote. The global picture however does I think provide evidence of the slow healing story. Having grown at rates below pre-crisis norms for the post-crisis period, the world saw an increase in growth rates from around the middle of 2016. That return to stronger growth was broad-based both in that it was true for the whole of the G7 – excluding the UK – and emerging markets in aggregate and that it was driven by a pick-up in investment not just consumption. At the same time, in the US, partly in response to very low levels of unemployment, pay and inflation have risen from subdued 1-2% to rates closer to 2-3% over 2015 to 2018. So is there still a case for any ‘stodginess’ in the approach to monetary policy in the UK? Headline CPI inflation is running at 2.4% above its 2% target. The overshoot, however, is entirely due to imported inflationary pressure. This has come primarily from the post referendum depreciation in sterling plus some more recent pressure from the increase in oil prices. The inflationary pressure from sterling’s depreciation is already passed its peak. In May the MPC forecast that CPI would be at 2.2% by the year end. The MPC’s remit is to keep inflation at target ‘at all times’.

Low policy rates, it is argued, generate leverage in the economy and can lead to asset price bubbles. These concerns have particular relevance for me given my responsibility as the current Deputy Governor for Financial stability. On the face of it, this ought to bias me more to err on the side of a faster and sharper approach to policy. The evidence certainly seems to suggest that previous occupants of my post may have had such concerns about the impact of monetary policy on financial markets. Since the post was established in 1998, previous Deputy Governors for Financial Stability have never voted against a rate increase, and have frequently been in the minority in calling for one. 22  The difference, however, is that it was only in 2013, six months prior to my arrival, with the formal establishment of the Financial Policy Committee that the Bank was given specific macro-prudential tools to manage risks to financial stability. And since the establishment of the FPC, we have used those tools not just to increase the resilience of the financial system but also to restrain the build up of leverage in the economy more generally. 23  I am very clear that monetary policy can and should serve as the last line of defence against risks to financial stability, even though that can come at a significant cost to the broad economy.
Large current account imbalances, in particular deficits, pose significant risks for external debt sustainability and raise the possibility of sudden stops.6 Gross positions are now 3 to 4 times larger than their 1995 level, ranging from 150–300% of GDP (150% in the case of the US and 300% in the case of France, for example). Net positions are considerably smaller [Slide 8, table on right-hand side], but have widened by a factor of 5 to 10 with respect to their level in 1995. The counterpart of persistently large current account imbalances is large net external asset positions [as already shown in Slide 3], but also continued accumulation of external assets and liabilities. In this respect, the composition of the financial account (FDI, equity and debt portfolio flows as well as the other investment category, which largely comprises banking flows) matters. Examining the different financial instruments, one notices that the volatility in overall flows is largely driven by banking flows [Slide 9]. Given the large pre-crisis expansion in cross-border banking flows, especially within the euro area, the “low” level observed in recent years could 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  simply be interpreted as a return to normal. Indeed, in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, banking flows retrenched the most, followed by debt portfolio flows.7 Portfolio equity flows have been much more resilient than debt flows, which have halved between the pre- and the postcrisis periods.

Further decisive steps towards establishing a genuine banking union are needed so as to further reduce financial fragmentation, enhance the resilience of the banking sector and strengthen the institutional framework of the euro area. The ECB welcomes the approval of the legal framework of the single supervisory mechanism (SSM) by the European Parliament on 12 September and we look forward to its urgent adoption by the EU Council in the course of October. The entry into force of the SSM legal framework will allow us to further speed up the preparation process, which is well under way. We are committed to delivering on our new supervisory responsibilities by November 2014. We also strongly support the envisaged timeline for the establishment by the end of 2014 of the single resolution mechanism (SRM), which is a necessary complement to the SSM. The Commission’s proposal for the SRM contains three essential elements for the effective resolution of banks, namely: a single system, a single authority and a single fund. The ECB’s forthcoming comprehensive assessment of banks’ balance sheets, which will take place before the ECB assumes its supervisory responsibilities, will be an important confidence-building tool, and we are committed to ensuring its consistency and transparency. The effectiveness of this exercise will also depend on the availability of necessary arrangements for recapitalising banks, if and when needed, including through the provision of a public backstop, if private funds cannot be acquired.
In December 2014 and March 2015, the early provision of additional investment capacity through term RRP operations spanning the quarter-end dates, on top of the $ billion of capacity provided through ON RRPs, provided confidence to money market counterparties that sufficient investment opportunities would be available. 19 Absorbing some investment demand in term operations ahead of those quarter ends likely kept demand for ON RRPs on the quarter-end dates below the cap and helped to keep money market rates above the ON RRP offering rate. Given an apparent high degree of substitutability between overnight and term RRPs, cumulative take-up in these operations helps us to assess variability in potential demand for safe investments around peak times and to evaluate how much capacity the Federal Reserve might need to provide in an ON RRP facility to satisfy demand sufficiently to maintain interest rate control (Figure 6). 20 While our testing suggests that the current parameters of ON RRP operations have worked successfully with IOER to control short-term interest rates, there are limits to what we can learn from testing. Importantly, we will likely not know the level of support that proximity to the zero lower bound has provided to money market rates until we start to move away from it. Demand for ON RRPs following liftoff could remain relatively steady. But it could conceivably be much greater than what we have seen at higher levels of interest rates or as regulatory and structural changes in money markets boost demand for safe assets, which I will discuss momentarily.

15 The Fed’s FR 2420 data on bank borrowing activity show that after each increase in the ON RRP offering rate, the distribution of fed funds trades shifted toward higher rates, with the vast majority of trades being executed at rates at or above the offering rate (Figure 3). The same patterns were observed in detailed data on brokered fed funds and Eurodollar trades, the latter of which encompasses a larger volume and wider set of lenders than fed funds, and also in secured markets. Examining in particular individual repo trades where money market funds and GSEs supply cash to counterparties over the tri-party platform, we saw repo rates shift higher and nearly all trading volume occur at or above the ON RRP rate. Thus, the rate on the ON RRP facility performed as a floor for nearly all overnight money market transactions, exactly as theory would predict for even small and temporary rate changes in the offering rate. After subsequently lowering the ON RRP offering rate back to its exercise baseline of 5 basis points in mid-December, secured rates declined. Interestingly however, average unsecured rates remained at somewhat elevated levels, even as a portion of the activity returned to lower rate levels (Figures 4 and 5). 16 The drivers of this dynamic remain unclear and illustrate the complexity of money markets, but may partly reflect some lenders in unsecured markets gaining information about their relative bargaining power as a result of the ON RRP tests.