samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Moreover, buyers of services increasingly elect to travel elsewhere to consume them. Thus the international price elasticity of a wedding ceremony, a game of golf, hospital or health spa treatment, or conference facilities is ever rising. Soon there will remain only very few location-specific activities - heritage tourism perhaps, but even that is not immune from the pressure of the law of one price, if one considers the competing heritage sites around the world. I see some evidence in Hong Kong of the impact of this process of more broad-based globalisation, and I am sure it is happening elsewhere too. Liberalisation of trade policies and the achievements of the WTO will also have contributed. Thus, deflation is being driven in part by the expansion and intensification of competition across an ever larger range of sectors and countries. This may explain why some price surprises on the macro-policy front in the recent past have been on the downside, but if central banks can digest this ingredient there is no reason why they should be more than temporarily knocked off course by it. 3  For the UK, the peak-to-trough comparison would be 1873-95, during which the average compound deflation rate was 1.7% pa.  4  My thanks to HKMA colleagues Daryl Ho and Lu Dai for researching the historical data.

2  BIS Review 38/2002  Hong Kong In Hong Kong, other contributors to deflation over the past few years have been the general strength of the US dollar and the process of price equalisation across the border with the Mainland, although both the IMF and we in the HKMA have found that this latter effect is rather weaker overall than a few 5 well publicised examples might lead one to believe. Hong Kong's deflation, of some 12% in CPI terms over four years, seems, however, to be considerably more than could be accounted for by the above list of essentially non-cyclical factors. We therefore infer that much of it has been cyclical. To what extent has the currency board been responsible for this cycle? About half of the fall in our CPI can be attributed to a collapse of property prices, which feed through both directly and indirectly to the CPI. This in turn was largely the result of the bursting of a previous asset price bubble. This is the part of our deflation which may appear most obviously to be linked to domestic monetary conditions rather than to any global cyclical factors.
Surprisingly, in the light of the fall in G7 saving, UK long-term real interest rates as measured by the forward rates implied by the yields on index-linked gilts - are near their lowest levels for twenty years. US and euro-denominated rates are also low relative to past experience. There may be other factors that have offset the effect of fiscal policy on real interest rates, such as demographic developments and higher saving and more open capital markets outside the G7. But there remains a risk, as discussed in the Bank’s recent Financial Stability Review, of an unwinding of low long-term real interest rates as the stimulus from highly accommodative monetary policies across the G7 economies is gradually withdrawn. What do these arguments mean for monetary policy today? They imply, I believe, three main challenges for central banks. First, the factors that affect the level of real interest rates in capital markets around the world also determine whether a given official interest rate is an expansionary or restraining influence on demand. When driving a car we normally know whether our foot is on the accelerator or the brake. That is less obvious in the case of monetary policy - hence the debate among economists about the level of the so-called neutral interest rate. Uncertainty about the extent to which monetary policy is applying the accelerator or the brake justifies central bankers’ continued interest in the monetary and credit aggregates which contain information about the pace of nominal activity and hence future inflation.

Beyond the single monetary policy, there are various areas of European co-ordination in IMF-related matters although, as is well known, the different European states are represented on an individual basis in the Bretton Woods institutions. Spain, which adhered to the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB) as from their creation in 1998, is today an IMF creditor country. And though we continue to benefit from the Fund’s excellent technical advice, we also provide technical assistance, in some cases in collaboration with the Fund, to other countries in the process of implementing systems or procedures in which we have a certain comparative advantage. Moreover, the Spanish authorities and, in particular, the Banco de España, co-operate increasingly closely with the Fund on matters relating to national and international financial stability. As I indicated earlier, this issue is becoming more and more important, and the objectives and the interests of the Fund tend to coincide in this connection with those of the competent national authorities. The reasons why national and international authorities pay greater attention to financial stability can be found in the crises a significant number of countries have undergone in recent years. These have highlighted the complex linkages between the real sector and the financial sector and the risk that the latter may not only be a source of instability, but also amplify the imbalances or shocks generated in other sectors of the economy.
In order to bridge the data gaps, we must rely on enhanced disclosures that need to be built on sound taxonomies. But we need some data to set out a proper taxonomy! It is time to follow the path set by the TCFD on one side and the European Commission on the other to address all issues at the same time. It means working jointly on disclosures and taxonomies. It will notably help to enhance the quality of disclosure and, ultimately, its relevance in internalising the current climate change externality for all firms. We will then be in a position to move gradually towards compulsory transparency based on a “comply or explain” principle, such as that of Article 173 of the French Energy Transition Law that could usefully serve as a reference. b. Integrating climate-related risks into financial stability monitoring Substantial work remains to be done to achieve “the video of risks”. Our feeling is that risk premia do not currently appropriately reflect climate risks. And therefore I believe that we, as central banks and supervisors, must push for a forward looking vision of the impacts of climate risks. In order to properly size the financial effects of climate change, our goal is clear: we should be able to design some comprehensive climate stress tests. What does it mean in practice? The snapshot of risks provides information on exposures.

I will now turn to possible developments in particular markets. First the market for euro area bonds. In aggregate, the euro area government bond market is of a broadly similar size to the US Treasuries market. So it is one of the largest securities markets in the world. It is of course not yet as fully integrated as the Treasuries market. Substantial further progress in that direction probably depends on how quickly the various initiatives to link together Europe-wide trading and settlement systems come to fruition. And there are, and will remain, credit differences between particular issuers. But I would nevertheless expect the market to become increasingly integrated and, with other bond markets, more sophisticated over time. This ‘cash’ market is of course important in its own right; and London based market participants will remain very big players in it. But as far as the development of UK financial services business is concerned, the other interest rate markets which spin off the government bond market may be the ones where we see the most rapid growth, and the greatest scope for innovation. Good examples would be the markets for repo, swaps, and other interest rate derivatives. I think that in terms of new market opportunities, one of the most important areas in the evolving euro-denominated markets could be that for corporate bonds.
I applaud the proactive efforts by financial advisers to publish educational and informative pieces on social and mainstream media platforms. And I look forward to the continuation of such efforts and more effective partnership with the MFPC in other FEN initiatives moving forward. We have seen enough misinformation being peddled on social media by self-proclaimed financial gurus, who have irresponsibly advised borrowers that are not facing distress to seek loan 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  moratoriums, or to channel the savings from deferred loan repayments into other higher risk investments as a way of making a quick buck. What they fail to mention is that while it helps in easing cash flow problems for those affected, moratoriums do come at the cost of higher overall borrowing costs to the consumers, who may even be faced with the prospect of loan defaults should these short-term investments go sour. With the recent announcement of the enhanced iSinar package, we anticipate that similar unethical advice will surface again to encourage EPF account holders who are not in financial distress to make withdrawals from their Account 1 for reinvestment into far riskier investment assets. In such circumstances, I expect all financial practitioners to serve as a source of sound financial advice to counter such unscrupulous publications and to dissuade your clients from making irrational financial decisions that are not in their best interests.

8 To support such efforts in Shanghai, Singapore financial institutions can partner the Shanghai authorities and financial institutions to spearhead policy innovation supporting the liberalization agenda. For example, DBS participated in underwriting the pilot issuance of free trade zone (FTZ) bonds by the Shanghai Municipal Government last year, demonstrating how the complementarity of overseas networks that foreign banks provide can contribute to the internationalization of China’s capital markets. 9 Second, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will remain a priority trans-national initiative in China. During the National People’s Congress meetings last month, President Xi suggested that the Shanghai FTZ could be a bridgehead for the BRI, to help domestic companies channel investment overseas and set up a legal framework in line with international trade and investment rules. As a hub for trade and investment flows in Southeast Asia, Singapore would be a natural partner to Shanghai in realizing this vision to promote trade and investment flows between China and the ASEAN region. 1 0 Third, technology will continue to present benefits and opportunities to the financial sector. As leading FinTech centres, there is great scope for Shanghai and Singapore to harness technology together in a purposeful way, while ensuring appropriate and responsive regulatory frameworks to safeguard against possible new risks. Anchoring Stability, Leveraging Opportunities 11 Shanghai and Singapore can look forward to further strengthening collaboration and deepening mutual understanding in these as well as other areas.
It is steadily making progress in individual asset classes, among small groups of countries, sometimes bilaterally, where there is common interest and where markets and institutions are at similar stages of development. 12. We can see evidence of market integration among jurisdictions in several areas:  a. Banking. ASEAN is in discussions to complete a banking integration framework that will allow qualified ASEAN banks to progressively expand in each other’s’ jurisdictions. This initiative aims to create opportunities to strengthen regional banks in ASEAN and improve banking services offered to local markets. Even in other Asian countries where cross-border bank financing is restricted, we are seeing pockets opening up. For example, since China issued cross-border RMB rules for Suzhou Industrial Park (SIP) and Tianjin Eco City (TEC) in the middle of the year, about RMB 2 billion of loans have been approved from Singapore-based banks to companies in the two industrial parks. b. Equity Markets. In 2012, stock exchanges and regulators in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore launched the ASEAN trading link to offer easy access to each other’s stock markets. Singapore and China have also established a Direct Listing Framework for Chinese companies last year. The framework will facilitate interested Chinese companies seeking direct listing opportunities in Singapore. c.  Debt Markets. ASEAN securities regulators have since April last year implemented common disclosure standards, which would allow issuers to issue debt securities across various ASEAN markets with a single prospectus.

Although natural catastrophes – and damage caused by them – have risen in Asia in the last ten years, we remain significantly underinsured against perils like flooding. As disaster risk exposures grow in scale, size and complexity, it would exceed the individual capacity of local insurance markets, and governments, to insure the risks of its populations and communities. PPPs between public and private sectors, and across national borders, can be effective in maximising the benefits of insurance. Such examples of horizontal integration between markets are key in managing the region’s rising exposures to natural catastrophe risks. 19. Collation of natural catastrophe risk data and analytics across ASEAN countries is a necessary first step toward more comprehensive catastrophe protection, paving the way for insurance integration in this region. Currently, the fragmented market structure in ASEAN constrains data sharing and the capacity of domestic insurers to pool and underwrite risks. In Singapore, key partners from academia and industry, alongside the MAS, have come together to form a work group to explore the establishment of a Natural Catastrophe Data Analytics Exchange. This Exchange serves as a regional platform to collect data and model  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  less understood regions at risk in Asia-Pacific, facilitate better pricing of such risks, and eventually pave the way for more comprehensive insurance against these risks. 20. In combination, these comprehensive efforts among jurisdictions and participants are very encouraging.
The rankings are based on nominations submitted by large and small communities from around the world that take into account indicators developed by the forum. The award goes to communities or regions with a documented strategy for creating a local prosperity and inclusion using broadband and information technology to attract leading-edge businesses, stimulate job creation, build skills, generate economic growth, and improve the delivery of government services. 5  European Commission. 2007. Report from the Commission - Convergence Report 2007 on Malta, COM(2007) 258 final, p.7. BIS Review 14/2008  3  generate more value. The ongoing improvement in the quality of the infrastructure and other facilities available to investors has induced many foreign investors to locate, or expand existing operations, in Malta and thus take advantage of market access and cost-saving opportunities created by Malta’s status, first as an EU Member State and eventually also as a euro area member. This is reflected in the FDI figures when expressed in terms of additions to the capital stock in any one year. Since 2003, for example, the ratio of FDI inflows to gross capital formation was on average 83%, compared to 14% in the EU25. In manufacturing alone, since the first year of EU membership a total of 127 new projects or expansions with foreign participation have been approved, with an estimated potential value equivalent to 1% of nominal GDP. 6 The role of the Central Bank of Malta The Central Bank of Malta has been present at every stage of Malta’s journey to the euro.

We have gained an increasing understanding that how we finance postsecondary education has significant effects on a variety of critical economic outcomes, including economic growth and inequality. For example, our research suggests that higher student debt and delinquencies reduce household formation and depress homeownership. But there are many important questions still left unanswered. What is the relationship between the amount and type of educational investment that people make and their outcomes? What attributes are associated with borrowers who are more successful at  1  2  Payback Time? Measuring Progress on Student Debt Repayment. BIS central bankers’ speeches  repaying their student loans? Are there particular types of degrees that are associated with better performance with respect to student debt repayment or with better living standards earlier in life? What are the best interventions to help borrowers avoid the consequences of delinquency and default, and to limit any default costs to taxpayers? Do borrowers who use programs like income-based repayment eventually succeed in paying off their debts? How do income-based repayment programs affect important decisions such as labor supply, consumption and household formation? These are important questions for the nation, as the human capital of our citizens is far and away our most important asset, and student loans are an important mechanism for financing needed investments in that asset. But it is very hard to answer these questions with existing data.
Since the Second World War, the number of years of schooling has risen rapidly (Chart 8), more than trebling in emerging markets and almost doubling in advanced economies. Latterly, that rise has been driven by increasing numbers of adults with degree-level (tertiary) qualifications. Human capital has widened and deepened. Empirical studies suggest higher educational standards may have accounted for as much as a fifth of US growth since 1950. 26 Given the much larger scale of improvement in educational standards between the 16th and 18th centuries – the shift from an illiterate to a largely literate workforce – human capital accumulation seems likely to have played an even larger catalytic role in driving the Industrial Revolution. The picture is similar if we move from human to social capital. This is a more difficult concept to capture quantitatively. It embraces properties such as co-operation, reciprocity and trust within society. Although more elusive, these sources of social capital have been crucial to the success of nation states – for example, in supporting growth of trade. 27 One measure of social capital used by sociologists is the incidence of violence or war in society. This is the limiting case of a lack of cooperation or trust within or across societies; it is the sociological equivalent of financial crisis. 28 Chart 9 plots the incidence of murder (homicide) in Western European countries since 1300. It, too, tells a striking story. Violent crime fell dramatically between the 15th and 18th centuries, by a factor of around five.

By 2014, what do we find? Due to the magic of compound interest, China is now almost eight times the size of Italy. Indeed, China creates a new economy the size of Italy every 18 months; an economy the size of Portugal every quarter; an economy the size of Greece every month; and an economy the size of Cyprus every week. Those things that can be counted sometimes really do count. Today’s policy debates bear testimony to that. Since the financial crisis, global growth has under-performed. In the decade prior to it, advanced economy growth averaged 3% per year. In the period since, it has averaged just 1%. The world has grown fast, then slow. That has led some to fear “secular stagnation” – a lengthy period of sub-par growth. 3 The self-same concerns were voiced at the time of the Great Depression in the 1930s. 4 The economic jury is still out on whether recent rates of growth are a temporary post-crisis dip or a longer-lasting valley in our economic fortunes. Pessimists point to high levels of debt and inequality, worsening demographics and stagnating levels of educational attainment. 5 Optimists appeal to a new industrial revolution in digital technology. 6 Given its importance to living standards, this debate is one of the key issues of our time. Some insight into that debate can be provided by looking at patterns of growth through a long lens. Over long runs of history, it is possible to detect distinct phase shifts in growth.
Suhaimi Ali: Elevating the insurance value proposition at the intersection of IoT and ecosystems Keynote address by Mr Suhaimi Ali, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the InsurTech Leaders Summit, Damansara, 18 May 2022. ***  Introduction Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. A very good morning. I would like to express my thanks to the organisers of the InsurTech Leaders Summit for inviting me to deliver the keynote address today. The theme of this year's conference is highly relevant – "Elevating the insurance value proposition at the intersection of IoT and ecosystems". Many aspects of our lives are now done online and digitally. Consumers today have higher expectations for round-theclock services, seamless lifestyle interactions and personalised one-stop-shop experiences. Digital ecosystems enable this – for example, partnerships in wider crossindustry ecosystems give providers the agility and reach to thrive in an era where customer-centric value proposition is key. By 2025, it is estimated that 75% of Asia-Pacific business leaders will leverage on digital platforms and ecosystem capabilities to adapt their value chains to new markets 1 . In Malaysia, similar trends are also unfolding. For example, 67% of consumers expressed interest in using online channels to purchase insurance in the future 2. The potential of this digitalisation era has been compared to the era of enterprises in the post WWII period. During that time, the world saw a flourishing of technology and innovation.

This calls for a stronger role by industry leaders to collectively identify challenges, propose solutions and invest in ecosystem enablers. With this, I also hope to see more 'by the industry, for the industry' efforts to shape the development landscape in Malaysia that you would like to operate within. The Bank has laid out the future vision for the insurance and takaful sector under the recent Financial Sector Blueprint. The challenge now is for industry leaders and collaborators to forge on from here. We look forward to work with you to transform these aspirations into reality. Thank you and I wish you a successful conference ahead. 1 IDC website, Nov 2020, "IDC Predicts 65% of APAC GDP will be Digitalized Reaching  $ 1.2 Trillion in Spending by 2022"  5/6  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  2 Digital News Asia, Feb 2021, "Swiss Re study: Increase in digital platforms, Covid-  enforced mindset is changing Malaysia's insurance landscape" 3 In social science and organisational psychology, boundary spanning is a term to  describe individuals within an innovation system who adopt the role of linking internal networks with external sources of information. The term is now widely used to describe any situation where an individual crosses the boundaries of a network to enable knowledge exchange, translate language, and share values among various networks. 4 Centre for Insurance and Policy and Research website, Feb 2022, "Parametric  Disaster Insurance" 5 Hyperon, Apr 2022, "How Parametric Insurance is Reinventing the Industry".