samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Against the backdrop of fear and uncertainty, banks have tightened their lending and consumers have become more cautious in their spending. This will act as a drag on the euroarea economy going forward. A key constraint for both the US and euro-area, as well as many other advanced economies, is the limited policy space available to authorities. In these countries, monetary policy and fiscal stimulus have been pushed to their limits. Limited capacity to respond to new shocks thus represents a real risk for these economies, and for the global economy, that we must be weary of. In this setting, and given the deep-seated nature of the problems being faced, meaningful remedies rest just as much on political factors as on economic ones. How governments respond and how their electorates receive these responses will be an important source of uncertainty. In contrast, the rising economies in Asia offer a more positive outlook. Despite the slowdown in exports of many Asian countries, reflecting the softer global economic backdrop, domestic demand remains robust. More fundamentally, the continued rise of China and the formation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) will generate enormous economic opportunities for the region. As will be discussed later, the key challenge for Thailand will be how to optimally position ourselves to reap the full benefits of this trend. This brings me to the internal challenges.

In recent years, non-bank financial institutions are also playing an important role in this regard, by implementing innovative solutions. Public authorities have initiated and developed electronic platforms for the public payment services, such as taxes. The progress is notable – if compared with 10–20 years ago. But, our benchmarks are visionary: alignment with the standards of the countries we aspire to integrate with and the development of a society with a broad base of financial inclusion, where the use of electronic payment instruments are part of everyday life. The Bank of Albania, based on this vision, has placed at its focus the modernisation of retail payments system to bring about a tangible change. In collaboration with all market stakeholders, and with the valuable expertise of the World Bank, funded by SECO, the Bank of Albania finalised a set of analyses and studies on the situation of payments in Albania. I would like to mention here three main reports, published on our website: 1. The so-called PAFI project report on the market analysis on financial inclusion, which is implemented, in many other countries, and aims at reforming the retail payment systems and promoting financial inclusion; 2. Review of the Market for Remittances in Albania, a component of retail payment systems; 3. The study on measuring the costs of payment instruments. This study identified the costs for each element, finding that cash is the most costly means to the Albanian economy. In addition, it sets out scenarios for the replacement with various innovative instruments, which reduce these costs.
The process leading to these broad exercises involves close interaction between staff of the ECB and the national central banks to ensure that the euro area projections draw on all available expertise – both at the country and euro-area levels – and reflect the consensus view of the staff. There are three main steps: First, initial assumptions underlying the exercise and covering interest rates, exchange rates, the international environment and fiscal variables are set, although they are reviewed and can be changed in the course of the exercise; second, the projection numbers are derived and agreed upon, following a process of peer review of the individual country projections, consistency checks and integration within the euro area framework; the third and final step is the preparation of a report for the Governing Council. In addition to the numbers themselves, the staff also produces a number of background analyses on relevant issues. In March and September, the projections are updated by the staff of the ECB. Summary reports of both the Eurosystem’s and ECB Staff’s projections exercises are released on the ECB’s web-site on the same day that the detailed projections are presented to the Governing Council. They are also published later on in the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin. Publication is intended to make clear the information set which is available to the Governing Council when taking its decisions, and not to explain the decisions themselves. Due to the forward-looking orientation of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy, forecasts constitute necessarily a very important input into the decision-making process.

But also other countries (like Norway) with no particular difficulties in terms of anchoring inflation expectations have moved in this direction, presumably because their central banks were convinced of the benefits per se of the strategy. At present some twenty central banks have adopted an inflation targeting framework 4 , and some observers would add a few more to that number. The monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem The Eurosystem has not followed the same route. In October 1998, the Governing Council of the ECB dismissed the adoption of either inflation or monetary targeting and decided instead to select a strategy of its own, which aims at maintaining price stability over the mediumterm. The idea was to develop a credible and flexible, tailor-made strategy that would allow for timely responses to a changing environment, while keeping in clear focus the objective of price stability. And it was necessary to take account of two key factors of that time: the regime shift implied by Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the heightened uncertainty that surrounded the introduction of the single currency. Whilst it was important to build on  1  See Kydland F. E. and Prescott E. C. (1977), "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans", Journal of Political Economy, 85, 473-92 and Barro R. J. and Gordon R. (1983), "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model", Journal of Political Economy, 91, 589-610.
As a result, we can even talk now about discouraged employers, as opposed to the periods that follow a crisis, when the employees are the discouraged ones. Thus, we have ourselves another dilemma: ensuring that wage levels are compatible with attracting investors, but acknowledging that, at least in certain areas, wages need to come up at present, in order to mitigate the labour force drain, which affects the private and public sector alike. The key is, in my opinion, to increase wages at an adequate, sustainable pace, so as to ultimately benefit from an improved living climate reflected in a higher purchasing power, but also from preserved macroeconomic equilibria, as well as higher-quality public goods – roads in particular –, because, after all, wages are not the only part of the emigration story. Speaking about roads, I would like to point out that infrastructure is essential for connecting different regions of Romania and promoting cohesion. This is all the more important that, even though EU membership has acted as a catalyst for country-level real convergence, the development gaps across the regions of the New Member States, including in Romania, have not diminished significantly. Let me conclude by recalling the words that Otmar Issing said during a dinner speech on his leaving the ECB, back in 2006, when things seemed to move into the right direction all by themselves: “We were all privileged to participate in a historically unique experiment: the creation of a new currency for Europe.

One area that would definitely benefit from the implementation of such reforms is the labour market, at a time when the Romanian one faces challenges that are certainly not new or uncommon. Given our status of an open catching-up economy, within a European Union which has at its core the free movement of capital and labour, we were bound to end up sooner or later in somewhat of a dilemma. To be more specific, there are various opinions in our economy about where wages should be: on the one hand, they should be governed by productivity dynamics, so as not to lead to an erosion of the competitive position, yet on the other hand, they cannot be significantly below what is available in other economies, as it would simply lead to a labour force drain, with dramatic consequences if not addressed quickly. We are actually dealing with an emigration problem today, as more than three million Romanians (a significant percentage of the population) have left their homeland for other EU Member States. In order to mitigate this, wages should go up. As noted above, the only way to do that without upsetting competitiveness is to boost productivity. This can be done along a number of avenues, many of them involving, however, a significant amount of time (for example, one cannot solve the population-aging problem overnight). Foreign direct investment in recent years helped total factor productivity, but employers are currently being challenged by the shortage of labour force, in part determined precisely by the significant emigration.
The financial system – including banks and other financial intermediaries, equity markets, and debt markets, solves these problems by agglomerating capital from many smaller savers, allocating capital to the  BIS Review 149/2010  1  most important uses, and monitoring to ensure that it is being used well. At the same time, the financial system transfers, pools, and reduces risk, increases liquidity, and conveys information. Ladies and Gentlemen, let me also highlight the importance of financial markets and how they inter-relate with firms and contribute to economic growth and enhance social welfare. Whether financial systems are relatively simple or highly complex, they perform the same broad functions and share the same key characteristics. Their primary role in any economy is to mobilize resources for productive investment. An efficient financial system channels resources to activities that will provide the highest rate of return for investors. These resources stimulate economic growth, provide enterprises with the ability to become more productive and generate new jobs. Clearly effective financial markets are indispensable to the pursuit of sustained, broad-based economic growth. Unfortunately, financial markets development is one of the most complex areas in the development field.

Central Bank of Sri Lanka – ROAD MAP 2017  At the same time, we will continue to actively engage in liquidity management operations in the money market to guide  14  the short-term interest rates within the  economic analyses for the purpose of  desired path. formulating effective policies, while  In order to ensure the effective implementation of monetary policy, we  improving the transparency of monetary policy and policy communication. expect to introduce certain measures  At the same time, in the process of  with regard to OMOs, such as  making more informed policy decisions,  introducing fixed rate and variable rate  we look forward to enhancing statistical  auctions, and fine tuning auctions after  inputs by introducing new indices on  examining their need and feasibility in  property prices as well as modifying  line with other country experiences and  wage indices, while improving the  market needs. We will evaluate  coverage of existing surveys to better  alternative instruments to strengthen  track developments in the private  OMOs. sector. Reflecting these measures, inflation is  The Central Bank will continue to  expected to remain at mid-single digit  communicate policy decisions among  levels in the medium-term.
As well as giving me a different window on the world, these experiences were fuel for the imagination. That links to the second factor – social capital, the relationships we grow as individuals. “Grow” is the right word here because these working relationships, like any relationship, need to be fed and watered. Remote working inhibits our ability to cultivate and grow these working relationships. It has meant social capital has been another casualty of the crisis, with existing capital run down and new capital not built to replace it. Virtual meetings can be an efficient way of getting things done, indeed often more effective than the physical alternative. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on which I sit and which sets interest rates has taken place virtually since March, having never taken place virtually in the more than 20 years prior to March. MPC deliberations have been no less effective, and MPC decisions no less expeditious, for this shift. What virtual meetings risk losing, however, is the capacity to explore uncharted territory, to share tacit knowledge and personal information. Those informal between-meetings conversations are, in my experience, the bedrock of relationship-building and the key to trust–building. It is the loss of those informal  23 24  Opezzo and Schwartz (2014). Barrero et al (2020b). 8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  8  moments that has resulted in many of us running down our past stock of social capital for the past six months. This cannot be done indefinitely.

To do that, trust should be rebuilt between the countries of Europe. Trust is vital. From a French perspective, how can that trust be re-created? By carrying out reforms, and France is doing that. And by reducing deficits even more? By continuing to reduce the deficit so that debt falls and France is ready when growth slows down. And by making further cuts in public spending? It is not for the ECB to tell the French government what needs to be done in detail, but what we wish is for France to have the capacity to respond economically when growth slows down and for it not to depend completely on monetary policy. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Inflation averaged 2.6 percent over the past decade, or about half of the 5.1 percent average rate during the 1990s prior to the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Asian Crisis1. Meanwhile, our unemployment rate has been low at around 1 percent. The banking sector, severely affected by the 1997 crisis, has been safe and sound, minimally affected by the global financial crisis ten years later as a result of strengthened risk management and governance. Despite ongoing net capital inflows into Thailand, there appears no sign of asset price bubble while the degrees of leverage in the corporate and household sector are still low. Overall, I believe that the Thai economic stability has strengthened continuously. This achievement has been attributable to sound fiscal and monetary policy, together with appropriate and market-friendly regulations, aimed at keeping the economy operating close to its potential. Suffice it to say that the Bank of Thailand has fulfilled our responsibility to help achieve the economic stability. Under the inflation-targeting framework, the policy interest rate is the main instrument used to influence saving and spending in the economy so that demand matches potential supply. This economic balance has, in turn, produced a low and stable inflation environment necessary for the sustainable growth. In addition to the interest rate tool, the central bank also has regulatory tools to prevent undesirable accumulation of financial imbalances. Indeed, the so-called “macro-prudential policy” has been used as a complementary policy tool to the interest rate policy long before the sub-prime crisis.

But, as you are aware, the current growth rate of investment has been around 9 percent, and this makes investment promotion a very challenging and important policy agenda going forward. My own assessment is that this policy challenge can be achieved by strengthened fiscal policy efforts as public investment has been progressing in recent years. Infrastructure projects, which have been long delayed due to political problems, are now back on track. The construction of airport rail link came to a completion last year. Two more railway routes under the plan of Bangkok Mass Transit System are presently under construction. Several other railway projects in other regions other than Mass Transit in Bangkok are also in  1  Inflation rate of 2.6 percent is the average rate during 2001–2010 while 5.1 percent is the average rate during 1990–1996. 2  Average GDP growth rate during 2001–2010. 3  Chuenchoksan, S. and Nakornthab, D. (2008). “Past, Present, and Prospects for Thailand’s Growth: A Labor Market Perspective,” Discussion paper. Bank of Thailand. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  the pipeline. These public investments are welcomed steps towards further infrastructure developments, which will help lower logistic costs and boost Thailand’s productivity. In my view, public investment can and must do more to lower production costs and crowd in private investment over the medium term. Having said that, the physical infrastructure must be complemented by human capital development, to enhance productivity and potential growth.
The Government Petroleum Fund thus serves as a buffer against swings in the oil price, and thereby stabilises the krone exchange rate. The Norwegian economy may nevertheless be exposed to disturbances of a type that cannot be absorbed by the Petroleum Fund. In the future, fluctuations in the value of our currency will probably be more in line with the fluctuations observed in other countries. The exchange rate will vary. The increase in labour costs is important when Norges Bank’s assesses the outlook for price inflation and sets interest rates. Since 1997, labour costs have increased annually by between 5 and 7 per cent. In spite of this, consumer price inflation has been close to 2½ per cent over the past few years. The krone exchange rate has appreciated as a result of a wider interest rate differential between Norway and other countries. Combined with low growth abroad and increased trade with low-cost countries such as China, this led to a slower rise in import prices. In Norway, Voluntary Export Restraints on clothing have been removed and tariffs on clothing have been reduced considerably. In the EU and the US, a similar tendency has not been seen to the same extent. This may explain why prices for clothing have fallen in Norway relative to the EU and the US. However, there is still a long way to go before restrictions on clothing imports to Norway are entirely dismantled.

If parent banks buy the local subsidiaries’ eligible debt, this would represent a nonintrusive market solution for the problem of financial support, while observing the current resolution framework. Also, it would make central banks in CEE more likely to accept MPE (multiple point of entry) strategies in the future – as long as potential losses will be covered by parent banks. 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  The late Andrew Crockett, former General Manager of BIS, was one of the first to emphasize the important role of financial stability, distinct but complementary to price stability. The aftermath of the recent global financial crisis has shown us that crisis management and resolution is also a public good, correlated with, but independent from, price and macro financial stability. For financial integration in Europe to work, and for banking union to move forward, we should remember that there is one common market. The European legislation and the new proposals as well, which we broadly welcomed, do not refer to two asset classes of capital: inside and outside the banking union. Eventually, we will all be members of the banking union, and it is our joint responsibility to secure a level playing field. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
In this respect, at the international level, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) decided to delay by one year (from 2022 to 2023) the implementation of Basel III. In the accounting sphere, certain aspects relating to how the existing regulations should be applied to calculate credit risk have been clarified, to ensure that potential temporary delays  2  in loan repayments by borrowers are not treated as if they were a case of permanent impairment of loan quality. The authorities have also ruled that institutions may make effective use of their available capital buffers to absorb unexpected losses. It was further announced that institutions will have sufficient time to subsequently restore any capital buffers used. In addition, financial authorities have recommended that institutions temporarily eliminate dividend pay-outs and apply prudent criteria in their variable employee compensation schemes, so that they may channel their resources into shoring up their capital positions. All in all, we can say that this response from the prudential authorities, accompanied by the fiscal and monetary policy measures adopted, has enabled the initial impact of the shock to be absorbed. It has prevented the materialisation of a systemic risk in the financial system that would have exacerbated the crisis and made it more persistent. What about the current situation? We are living a recovery that is still partial, full of uncertainty and uneven, both at the country and sectoral level.

One source of concern for both the United States and the world as a whole is the large deficits in the US economy. In the third quarter last year the current account deficit totalled USD 165 billion, or around 6 per cent of GDP. Data for November show that the deficit has continued to grow, reaching a new record high of just over USD 60 billion. This may result in changes in interest rates and exchange rates that could have considerable consequences for world trade. A large share, or about 40 per cent, of Sweden’s exports go to the euro area, and as a result economic developments there are especially important for us. The recovery in the euro area economy is going slowly. Growth in the third quarter was lower than expected. Available indicators for the fourth quarter provide a mixed picture. Germany, which is an important market for Swedish products, is showing some signs of an improvement. After several years of extensive cutbacks there should be a pent-up need among firms to invest. At the same time exports are being dampened by the euro’s rise against mainly the dollar. BIS Review 10/2005  1  The economic situation in Sweden As regards Sweden the Riksbank has been positive in the past year in its outlook on economic developments. International demand has increased faster than anticipated, with above all exports of services proving unexpectedly robust. Economic policy is also contributing to the relatively bright growth prospects.