samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In Q1/2022, global debt has increased by $ trillion to a new record of over $ trillion, largely driven by the world’s two largest economies, China and the US, while China’s debt rose by $ trillion in Q1, the US added $ trillion (Figure 3). Page 1 of 3  intense than during the taper tantrum and the initial Covid shock in 2020. Currency movements have largely mirrored USD appreciation. Part of this reflects stronger fundamentals and large buffers: including deeper local markets, sound fiscal positions; high foreign exchange reserves; well-capitalized banks; low foreign currency debt; and lower foreign holdings of local assets. •  How small open economies should respond varies by country, depending on their context. Countries with stronger policy frameworks, sound external and internal finances, and a broader range of tools--including FX intervention and macroprudential measures--are in a better position to manage the risks and trade-offs resulting from tighter global financial conditions. In Thailand, for example, our circumstances have allowed us to take a more gradual and measured approach towards policy normalization. Part 2: The second challenge is the shifting international trade and geopolitical landscape •  The need to build more resilient supply chains, coupled with the more polarized international environment, has given greater impetus to de-globalization or at the very least to reglobalization. A survey of Fortune 1000 companies found that 94% experienced problems from supply chain disruptions from Covid-19. The likely trend towards reshoring, near-shoring, and friend-shoring is leading to potential reconfigurations of global supply chains.

Similarly, customers must also be engaged, as they play a crucial role in creating much needed demand for Fintech led transformation. Therefore stakeholders have to consider how to educate consumers and businesses about the benefits of Fintech as well as making them aware of risks and challenges, so that they build trust, and can make informed financial services decisions. Let me conclude with a final thought. The digitalisation of the financial sector will continue to accelerate over the coming years. To help capture the greatest benefit from continuing waves of innovation, we must build trust in new financial technologies - by promoting an atmosphere that encourages creativity and innovations to the benefit of our societies, but without sacrificing consumer protection or undermining the financial system stability. Thank you! 1 https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/12/03/fintech-market-reports-  rapid-growth-during-covid-19-pandemic  4/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
At a time like the present, when governments around the world have been ready to adopt measures that were barely conceivable a few months ago, this is perhaps a lesson that has already been quickly learned. The region's recovery from the Asian financial crisis was nearly as rapid as the unfolding of the crisis itself, thanks to the vigorous measures taken by authorities in the region and the underlying momentum and vibrancy of the Asian economies. The experience of this shock generated a determination in the region to try to ensure that such a crisis did not happen again, and to strengthen financial systems against other forms of crisis. It would be complacent to suppose that we have been completely successful in these aims. We are, after all, in the midst of a serious financial crisis that no efforts by this region on its own could have prevented. The region’s financial systems may have been largely undamaged by the first wave of that crisis. But the second wave is now upon us, and this second wave may well carry greater risks to emerging markets. Even so, the determination among Asian economies in the aftermath of 1998 to build strength against future crises has placed this region in a much more resilient position. The raw resources for maintaining financial stability – foreign exchange reserves – have more than doubled in most of the economies in this region over the past decade.

The idea for building up the reserves was aired at the Central Bank’s annual meeting in March this year, so it should not come as a surprise. Given the scenario I have been describing, the Board of Governors seems to have ample justification for taking this pause to consider the position carefully and decide the next steps, not only with reference to the more positive assumptions that have now emerged since the July forecast, but also by examining the risks I have mentioned. If the current outlook holds and everyone stays alert and strong, inflation will be brought down over a relatively short period. The most important consideration is to achieve a satisfactory course for the exchange rate, whereby the current account deficit will primarily be reduced by increased exports, decreased imports of capital goods and a sufficiently tight stance to deter consumers from spending on other imports. The other and much less favourable way to adjust the current account would be through a sharp currency depreciation. Such action would have many uncomfortable side-effects which are well known. As yet, the former option is much more likely namely a soft landing.
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: On the occasion of the inauguration of the Euro Exhibition in Rome Speech by Mr Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the inauguration of the Euro Exhibition, Rome, 3 April 2009. *  *  *  Dear Fabrizio, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a pleasure for me to be here in these wonderful premises of Banca d’Italia in Rome to celebrate with you the occasion of the 10th anniversary of Stage Three of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and of the adoption of the euro. We are also here to inaugurate “The Euro Exhibition”, presenting the euro banknotes and coins through a range of innovative features, which we hope will be appreciated by the public in Rome. 1. First 10 years of the euro  On 1 January 1999 the Third Stage of EMU began with the irrevocable fixing of the exchange rates of the currencies of the 11 Member States initially forming the euro area. Monetary authority for the new currency was transferred to the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The euro became the currency of over 300 million citizens of Europe. The number of countries participating in the EMU grew over the years. Today, euro banknotes and coins are legal tender in 16 of the 27 Member States of the European Union, and used by almost 330 million citizens in the euro area. Slovakia has recently become the 16th member of the euro area.

In addition, the country concerned is expected to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism II, for which it must similarly fulfil certain economic criteria. Finally, the convergence criteria must be complied with, which should ensure that a candidate country wishing to join provides evidence of sufficient economic convergence with the euro area. In addition to sound public finances and a high degree of price stability, they must also provide evidence of relatively low long-term interest rates and stable exchange rates. The European Council decides whether a country is eligible to join in Monetary Union and calls upon the ECB and the European Commission to give an Opinion. Conclusion I shall now come to a close. The ECB has been responsible for monetary policy in the euro area for nine months now. So far, we believe that the ECB’s monetary policy, the new monetary policy strategy and the new range of instruments have passed their first test very well indeed. Many international observers share this view. The real art of monetary policy will continue to be maintaining price stability in the euro area in the foreseeable future. Faith in a currency cannot be achieved by way of national or international legislation. Rather, the ECB must try to inspire new faith in the euro on an almost daily basis in order to build up credibility over time. It would be wise to develop this credibility so that the ECB’s monetary policy is also sufficiently prepared for difficult phases in the future. BIS Review 99/1999  6
The National Authorities will conduct the exercise at the national level, on the basis of data requirements and centrally developed methodology, and may ask for the support of third parties if they deem it necessary. To ensure consistency in execution across banks and countries, quality assurance processes will be in place at every stage. It is in the interest of all that this exercise be rigorous and transparent, so as to fully restore confidence in the European banking sector. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Conclusions We have in front of us a year “fully loaded” – to use the jargon we all use in connection with of the Regulatory Basel Framework. The European Union is trying to make a big step forward and we will need the intelligence and best cooperation of all for this great design to be carried out. Thanks again to the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum and to his Chairman, David Marsh, and to all the participants. I wish all of our visitors a very good stay in Madrid. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5

The SNB’s expansionary monetary policy contributed to the depreciation of the Swiss franc over the course of the year and thus also supported the economy. Inflation is currently negative, due to the appreciation of the Swiss franc following the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate and to the reduction in commodity prices. We expect it to return to positive territory in 2017. We will keep our options open should other measures be necessary to fulfil our mandate. But, as always with monetary policy decisions, we need to carefully weigh up the pros and cons to serve the interests of the country as a whole. In the wake of the financial crisis and the use of unconventional measures, central banks have become the focus of intense public interest. Various reform proposals are being discussed and we welcome these public debates. New ideas need to be seriously considered and evaluated. The intentions behind the sovereign wealth fund and sovereign money projects are commendable. But, on closer examination, the drawbacks outweigh the benefits in both cases. Finally, on behalf too of my colleagues in the Governing Board, Fritz Zurbrügg and Andréa Maechler, I would like to take this opportunity to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication. We would also like to thank our shareholders for their solidarity with the SNB and for their loyal support.
Regardless of whether you have decided to pursue your studies in economics or start a professional career, I am sure that the knowledge and habits you have acquired in the past two years will prove to be extremely helpful in your endeavours. I wish you every success in your careers. Thank you very much. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches

The HKMA endorsed this consensus and issued a circular in June 2004 requesting banks to implement such security measure by June 2005 for high-risk retail Internet banking transactions (such as fund transfers to non-designated accounts). Two-factor authentication is a security measure recognised by the information security industry to combat Internet banking frauds. In addition to the normal login ID and password, a customer needs a second factor which is in his or her physical possession for additional identity verification. This second factor should be difficult to be stolen together with the customer’s login ID and password by fraudsters over the Internet. We believe that this is an effective way in tackling the latest Internet banking frauds such as fake bank websites, phishing e-mails and Trojan software. We understand that a number of banking supervisors in other financial markets are currently reviewing the implication of the latest Internet banking frauds and consulting their banks in relation to the adoption of two-factor authentication for Internet banking. Hong Kong is one of the first places to offer such security measure to bank customers. So far the implementation of two-factor authentication has been progressing satisfactorily. All banks offering high-risk retail Internet banking transactions will allow customers to apply for two-factor authentication from next month. Individual banks may offer different two-factor authentication methods to customers. Three common methods being adopted by banks in Hong Kong are digital certificate, security token-based one-time password and SMS-based one-time password.
Globally, fast indicators point towards the trough in activity in the UK’s main trading partners having come during, or just after the end of, the first three months of the year: in China in February and in the US and euro area in early April. That means UK-weighted global GDP has perhaps been recovering for around three months. Chart 5 plots PMIs for a range of the UK’s major trading partners. Although the PMIs are a less  6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  6  good guide than usual to GDP outturns, they have bounced back sharply, as have some other business surveys.9  Chart 5: PMIs in selected countries  Index, 50 = no change 70 France  Germany  US 60 50  Euro area  40 China 30 20 10 0  2006  2009  2012  2015  2018  Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream. Notes: Composite output PMIs. Solid red line shows ISM PMIs for US, dashed red line shows Markit PMIs. Chart 6a plots the Google-based proxy for social spending in a range of countries since the start of the year, most likely the slowest of the consumption categories to recover. This measure troughed in Q1 for most countries and has since recovered across the board, albeit to different degrees. For some countries, it is already close to pre-Covid levels. The country divergence is even larger in Chart 6b, showing restaurant bookings across countries, but the extent of the recovery is nonetheless similar.

Charts 3 and 4 plot the distribution of quarterly (since 1955) and annual (since 1700) GDP growth rates in the UK, with the Bank’s May MPR scenario highlighted. By any conceivable metric, the Covid crisis has generated an extraordinary left-tail shock to the economy, with few if any historical precedents. Chart 3: Distribution of quarterly GDP growth since 1955  Chart 4: Distribution of annual GDP growth since 1700 Number of observations  Number of observations 160  50  140  45 40  120  35 100 80  May MPR 2020 Q2  60  30 May MPR 2020  25 20 15  40  10  20  5 0  0  -15 -13 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19  -24-22-20-18-16-14-12-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4  Annual GDP growth (%)  Quarterly GDP growth (%)  Sources: ONS and Bank calculations. Sources: Bank of England Millennium of Data, ONS and Bank calculations. “The Second Quarter”  The same fast indicators used to track the collapse in activity in the first part of this year can also be used to track its recovery. Generally speaking, these indicators suggest the recovery in both the UK and global economies has come somewhat sooner, and has been materially faster, than in the MPC’s May MPR scenario – indeed, sooner and faster than any other mainstream macroeconomic forecaster.
Regional and international journals have portrayed ASEAN as drifting apart. Analysts doubt whether ASEAN countries can get together to pursue economic cooperation, lower trade barriers and restore prosperity and confidence. As one analyst said on BBC TV: “A lot of these issues are more or less on hold. … there’s very little impetus for really substantial change in the past few years and ASEAN hasn’t coped well with the various political and economic crises that the region has seen. If you look at investment, it’s really shifted to Korea, to China and it’s going to probably get much more competitive when China joins the WTO. In many ways, a lot of Southeast Asia has lost its competitive edge. The political problems, economic problems have really hurt the region. So, what you are seeing now is a lot of investors really reassessing their view of this region and moving much more towards the north east of Asia.”1 Falling behind The figures confirm this. Since 1996, Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) to the North have continued to rise, whereas FDIs to the South have fallen to about half pre-crisis levels. As a result, Southeast Asia’s share of total FDIs to East Asia (excluding Japan) halved, from 33% in 1996 to just 15% in 1999. In equity markets, Southeast Asia’s weight has declined, while Northeast Asia’s has increased.

The good news is that since the crisis broke, banks in the UK and elsewhere have made significant progress in rebuilding capital. Evidence to support this is that at its last meeting in June, the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee decided to close its recommendation of March last year that the largest UK banks and building societies should meet a minimum 7% Common Equity Tier One ratio on the socalled end-point (ie full implementation) basis set out in the EU rules to implement Basel III, after taking into account adjustments for expected loss on more vulnerable loan portfolios, the impact of future conduct of business costs, and prudent use of risk weights. Since then the actions taken by a number of major UK banks and building societies have put them on course or ahead of the planned actions to meet the FPC’s test. In a few cases, there are more actions to be undertaken in their plans, but overall this is a welcome story of action taken to strengthen capital positions. I do however accept that there remains a perception in some quarters that higher capital standards are bad for lending and thus for a sustained economic recovery. I agree with those who argue that banks have a lot more to do to demonstrate that they support lending to small businesses. Interestingly, in recent weeks the messages I have seen from the Bank of  4  Bank calculations based on supervisory data.
The Banco de España has dedicated notable efforts to promoting financial education for many years. Along with the CNMV (National Securities Market Commission), it has since 2008 promoted the Financial Education Plan, to which numerous institutions and public and private associations covering a wide spectrum of social sensibilities have adhered. The objective of the Plan is to enhance citizens’ capacity to take well-founded financial decisions and, in this respect, it aims to reach out to the entire population and have a durable presence over time. As part of this Plan, and with the focus on the young, the Financial Education Programme for Schools – an initiative supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport within the framework of the collaboration agreement signed in 2009 with the Banco de España and the CNMV – has recently been launched for another year. This Programme, currently in its sixth edition, seeks to bring basic knowledge of personal finances to the classroom so as to prepare pupils to meet the basic challenges in the financial area that they will face throughout their lives. Key concepts such as saving, income, personal budgeting, what things cost, quality of life and responsible consumption are all developed in the Programme. In the past five years around 300,000 pupils have benefited from it. More generally and in order to reach out to all citizens, another notable component of the Financial Education Plan is the website finanzasparatodos, which has been open to the 7/8  public since May 2010.

In the area of transparency, commercial banks since August this year have had to announce at the end of each month their NPL level, penalties and fines imposed by the authorities and the related lending. Public and stakeholders’ opinions are thereby used to augment the new supervision and examination process we are installing with the help of the OCC and the FDIC. In terms of bad banks, I expect that by the time I get back, or soon after I get back, the disposal of all intervened banks will be complete. In terms of bad clients, since on the afternoon I left for the Annual Meetings of the World Bank and IMF, the contract for the transfer into the government-run Asset Management Company of some 12 billion dollars of assets was signed and the Cabinet had also approved the covered asset pool arrangement for another intervened bank for a further 5 billion dollars. I expect that the NPL at the end of this year will be in the teens - a quite manageable level compared to the high of 48% at the beginning of the year. On the average, banks are now back into the positive spread, actually of 1.28% last month, which is low by traditional standards and still not profitable but still over half of the spread that we expect banks to be operating in under the new competitive and transparent conditions that we will see in the future.
A central element of our independent position in monetary policy is our instrument independence, that we ourselves can decide over these instruments. The monetary policy toolbox develops as a result of new experiences. For instance, we implemented many measures within the space of one week during the initial phase of the coronavirus pandemic. I therefore find it difficult to see the value of restricting the tools in advance, as proposed by the inquiry. It wishes, for instance, to divide the Riksbank’s toolbox into different parts and micro regulate which tools should be used when, where and how. I understand that this may seem like a good idea, but having to motivate and classify possible measures will be very complicated and will encourage passivity and delay the monetary policy response in future crises. The developments in connection with the WHP declaring COVID19 to be a pandemic meant that a full-scale financial tornado blew up within the course of a couple of days. Important to facilitate democratic scrutiny of monetary policy As I mentioned initially, our strong independence entails freedom with responsibility. An extended monetary policy toolbox entails further challenges for us. If we return to Figure 6, we have found ourselves in a situation where our objectives and mandate remain unchanged, but our toolbox has grown. This was a situation that was not so easy to foresee, and it makes new demands of the Riksbank. One challenge in the new environment concerns the link between the monetary policy tools and our objectives having become less clear.

We thus needed to take a number of new measures to attain two aims: hold interest rates unchanged as far as possible, and maintain the supply of credit to keep the real economy going. We basically decided on all of the measures we have now in place in the space of a week. After that, we have modified and extended the existing programme. For instance, we have purchased debt securities in the form of government bonds, municipal bonds, covered bonds and commercial paper in the form of corporate bonds and certificates (see Figure 9). Like many other central banks, we have seen our balance sheet total grow (see Figure 10). I consider that the measures have functioned as we intended. 28 All bond yields on higher risk assets have fallen (see Figure 7). Corporate bond yields, that is yields on the market that had the greatest problems last spring, have fallen the most, despite the fact that we only purchased equivalent to around 1 per cent of the outstanding stock. We can also see that lending rates to companies and households remained stable during the crisis (see Figure 11). As I see it, these measures were entirely necessary to attain our monetary policy objectives: to attain an inflation rate of 2 per cent and to support the development of the economy. It is important that we have sufficient tools to attain our objectives.