samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
And at the same time, the average for the groups with low price volatility is also higher than the actual rate of inflation; 2.2 per cent compared with 1.6 per cent. It is common to divide the CPIF into separate indices for goods, services, energy and food. The prices of these large groups can have different determinants, which motivates sometimes wanting to distinguish between the price increases. 23 Service prices have the greatest weight among the components with the lowest volatility (Table 2). 24 There is more of a mixture among prices with high volatility, but all energy prices are included there. There are fewer services prices in the group with high volatility. 22 The fact that the average for other prices is so low is largely due to the inclusion of the component “home electronics”. It has an average rate of increase of -14 per cent during the period. 23 Consumer prices for energy and food are highly affected by the development of commodity prices on the world market, which justifies wanting to study these sub-groups separately from time to time. Costs also develop differently in different sectors. Costs normally increase more rapidly in service sectors than in goods sectors as wage increases are roughly the same in the different sectors while productivity increases more slowly in the service sector. 24 Their weight amounts to a good 70 per cent of the total weight of prices in Table 2. 13 [19]  It is not the same prices that are volatile all the time.

When speaking at the monetary policy meetings I have gone a stage further. On these occasions I have in principle never discussed underlying measures, but focused entirely on CPIF inflation. What have we learnt? There can be a lot of white noise in the time series data used for economic analysis. This applies in particular to monthly data. One therefore needs to adjust the data for white noise and seasonal variations. If one wants to analyse the development of inflation, for instance, one must make these adjustments. The purpose is to calculate the underlying rate of inflation, or, in other words, core inflation. There are largely two different ways of doing this. One is to use more or less advanced statistical methods to adjust for white noise and temporary changes. It is also possible to exclude goods and services groups that have proved to have volatile prices. Today I have presented a number of examples of measures calculate with the different methods. There are a number of important properties that one wants these measures to have. They should, for instance, show the same basic development as the non-adjusted series. There are measures that are better or worse with regard to how well they fulfil the criteria for desirable properties. But there is no measure that is unequivocally better than all the others. And this is where the problems arise for the monetary policy decision-makers. There is, on the one hand, a need to approach the existing data with caution and to regard them from different perspectives.
I am  hopeful that European negotiations will soon come to a conclusion on both these texts, which are crucial for regulating the financial sector. On the regulatory front, I would also like to stress the importance of the pilot regime that is to be introduced to help market infrastructure players experiment with DLT. This regime will allow multilateral trading platforms and securities settlement systems operated by CSDs to request temporary exemptions from existing regulations, in order to test certain DLT uses securely and with supervisory oversight. 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  But in order to be efficient, regulations need to be backed up by close international coordination. This is also a priority for us, to limit regulatory arbitrage or indeed avoid it altogether. For this reason, we are closely involved in the work of multilateral fora (G7, G20, FSB, CPMI),especially on crypto-assets and the improvement of cross-border payments. B) However, adapting the regulatory framework does not, on its own, respond to all the challenges posed by financial digitalisation. We firmly believe, at the Banque de France, that to help meet these challenges, we also need to play an active role in innovation. For us, becoming part of the European innovation ecosystem means, first and foremost, committing to helping initiatives that can create a diverse and competitive market for efficient solutions, tailored to user needs.

Our institutions – such as the Banque de France’s Lab, its Infrastructure, Innovation and Payments Directorate (DIIP), the ACPR’s Fintech-Innovation Unit, with its ACPR-AMF Fintech Forum – are fully mobilised to facilitate these initiatives and help them grow. Among these initiatives, three in particular are worth highlighting. First, those in the field of instant payments, which open a new chapter in the payments industry. Second, the continuing development of open banking, thanks to the European financial sector’s work on APIs. Last but not least, the European Payments Initiative (EPI) which will provide European citizens with a pan-European solution for everyday payments, via both a payment card and a smartphone, covering all retail use cases. With some major decisions scheduled to be taken this autumn for the actual launch of EPI, I would like to remind you here that the Banque de France fully supports this initiative, alongside the other Eurosystem national central banks and the European Commission. We are counting on you all, as participants in the financial ecosystem, to make this unique opportunity for European payments into a reality. C) We are also actively supporting financial innovation by conducting an ambitious experimentation programme for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) Several central banks have begun working seriously on the idea of issuing a CBDC, if it were to prove necessary, to preserve the anchoring role of central bank money in the digital era.
8  BIS Review 168/2009  BIS Review 168/2009  9  10  BIS Review 168/2009  BIS Review 168/2009  11  12  BIS Review 168/2009  BIS Review 168/2009  13  14  BIS Review 168/2009  BIS Review 168/2009  15

This common platform would give both the Hong Kong and Malaysia financial markets the added critical mass for sukuk and boost liquidity in the secondary market, thus contributing towards the development of a global Islamic money market for a more efficient cross border liquidity management. The benefits that can be realised from the cooperation between our two markets are enormous. On that note, I wish to thank HKMA for hosting this joint conference and I bid the participants a productive endeavour. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
BIS Review 5/2004  Chart 6: The Saddam/Swiss Dinar exchange rate, Jan 2002-Dec 2003 Saddam/Swiss Dinar 350 300 250 200  Announcement of currency reform, 7 July  150 100 End of war, 1 May 50 Invasion of Iraq, 20 Mar 0 Jan-02  May-02  Sep-02  Jan-03  May-03  Sep-03  Source: United Nations, Central Bank of Iraq  But it is above the average rate that prevailed over the past six years, and above the rate that would equalise the purchasing power of the two currencies. For example, around the time when the new conversion rate was being determined, it was estimated that 128 Saddam dinars to the Swiss would equalise the wages of an engineer in the two parts of Iraq, 100 would equate the price of the shoes he wore to work, and 133 the price of his suit.16 From Chart 6, it is clear that the exchange rate hovered above 150 after the parity was announced on 7 July. There are two reasons for this. First, the 10,000 Saddam dinar note was heavily counterfeited, easy to do given the primitive local technology used to print them. The exchange rate of this note against the dollar is consistently less than the 250 dinar note which, as a smaller denomination note, was less heavily counterfeited. The Swiss notes, printed using more sophisticated technology, are virtually free of counterfeits.

6 Anna Kovner and Antoine Martin (2020), Expanding the Toolkit: Facilities Established to Respond to the COVID-19 Pandemic, Liberty Street Blog, Federal Reserve Bank of  New York. 7 For more details on the measures of corporate bond market functioning, please see the facility FAQs. 8 See Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy, March 23, 2020. 9 CCF eligibility was designed to target domestic non-financial issuers, concentrating our resources on firms that do not have access to funding through deposits, as do banks  and bank holding companies 10 To focus on U.S. businesses and not banks, the facilities exclude depository institutions and depository holding companies. Eligible bonds are non-depository institution  bonds maturing within five years, issued by companies domiciled and incorporated in the U.S. For full details on eligible bonds, see term sheets for the PMCCF and the SMCCF. 11 The preponderance of the Federal Reserve’s ETF purchases—87 percent at September month-end—are rated investment grade. 12 The weightings are determined after limits are applied at the issuer’s parent company level (10 percent of all bonds subject to an $ billion cap) and allocated across  eligible bonds. 13 See New York Fed Announces the First Wave of Firms Selected To Broaden its Counterparty Base for CPFF and SMCCF, September 9, 2020. 14 Nina Boyachenko, Anna Kovner, and Or Shachar (2020), It’s What You Say and What You Buy: A Holistic Evaluation of the Corporate Credit Facilities, Federal Reserve  Bank of New York Staff Reports No. 935, July 2020.
The Bingham Report was produced in only a year and contains all that is worth saying about the supervision of BCCI. It was not comfortable reading for the Bank, but the Bank accepted and acted on its findings. The subsequent legal proceedings over thirteen years have benefited only one group at the expense, in the end, largely of the creditors. As Mr Justice Lightman argued in his 2003 Edward Bramley Memorial Lecture, the adversarial system imposes huge costs on litigants and defendants alike. As he put it, “to the great majority of the public the perception (if not the reality) is that the legal system is a profitable monopoly of the lawyers”. BCCI showed that perception was indeed reality. A system that is powerless to prevent a case so hopelessly misconceived continuing for thirteen years requires examination. I very much hope that the Government will look carefully at this case, learn the lessons, and take steps to ensure that such an outcome can never occur again. Finally, who managed to obtain the correct answers to the two questions I gave you at the beginning? Chancellor, you can see that mental arithmetic in the City is not what it was. In fact the answer to the first question is 3/100 or 3%, and to the second question is £ 13s. 9d. - before tax.

Zdeněk Tůma: Education as investment in human capital Speech by Mr Zdeněk Tůma, Governor of the Czech National Bank, for the graduation ceremony, The New Anglo-American College, Prague, 20 June 2008. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues, It is my pleasure to be here today and to share with you some thoughts that concern the role of education as an investment in human capital in the long-term development of our economy and society in general. Today it’s commonplace for politicians to swear by concepts like investment in education, knowledge-based economy or the effect of education on long-term economic growth. They are also quick to add something about the necessity to pay for university education, at least those on the right wing of the political spectrum. Don’t worry, we haven’t met today to assess individual political ideas, and we all know that sometimes it’s a long road from what politicians say to what they do. However, the fact that you are sitting here today indicates that viewing education as an investment has its place in today’s society regardless of political preferences. I would like to use this opportunity to point out that although the concept of investment in education may be somewhat misused and can have unfortunate overtones for somebody, it has a rigorous theoretical foundation and is of high empirical relevance.
The reason for this is that a crisis in the financial system has far-reaching consequences for the whole economy. The financial crisis causes large falls in production, rising unemployment and increased budget deficits as incomes fall and expenditure rises in the wake of the recession. There is thus a big difference, from society’s point of view, between banks in distress and ordinary companies suffering problems. This is why we need special regulations for the banks. It is no news to us Swedes that crises are extremely expensive. We only need to look back to the crisis in the 1990s for a reminder. But this time the crisis was on a global scale. For the first time since the Second World War we have experienced a fall in production in the world economy. It is clear that the world will suffer the consequences of this for a long time to come. But we Swedes have also been hit hard this time, too. Not least because we are a small, export-driven economy that is very vulnerable to developments abroad. Because when the credit taps are turned off, orders that have been made are withdrawn and no new ones are made. In 2009 total production in Sweden, GDP, fell by around 5 per cent – the largest fall in a single year since the 1940s. Such a large fall in the production flow entails an irrevocable dent in the long-term curve. Gone forever. If one converts it, it corresponds to about SEK 20,000 per Swedish inhabitant.

Only when the price went beyond $ per barrel did it truly begin to affect the demand, and from then on the reduced output prospects have continued to determine its price. Inflation-wise, the international scenario is still delicate. After a shock of oil and foodstuff prices that had no parallel since the Great Inflation of the 1970s, inflation has risen everywhere (figure 10). Also, inflation expectations have increased accordingly (figures 11 and 12). In general terms, it has not yet become a generalized inflationary phenomenon but, inasmuch as it is transmitted to expectations and wages, it can be very persistent. Monetary policy reactions to this phenomenon have been varied. In developed economies, where growth prospects are frail, interest rates have been lowered (figure 13). In general, the slowdown is expected to be sufficient to bring down high inflation. On the contrary, in developing economies monetary policy has been on average restrictive. Growth rates are still reasonable, so one cannot rely on a drop in inflation without having to raise the interest rate. World growth is still strong. (figure 14). What is new is the decoupling of developed economies with the rest of the world. Not surprisingly, the entire world is decelerating, but the degree of expansion of output varies significantly. Never in the last half century did we see a period of such decoupling. The phenomenon is not exclusive to China, and has been present for several years already.
Although, as recent years have shown, our economy has learned to adapt to external shocks, there are nevertheless a host of internal factors that leave us rather exposed. These include low economic diversification, insufficient flexibility of institutions and rules, a weak competitive environment (where new companies find it hard to enter the market and those lagging behind economically continue to do so for a long time). As a result, even given the potential for growth (which, as you know, the Central Bank estimates at 1.5-2%) there will potentially be significant fluctuations in output in the coming years. Therefore, there is an urgent need for structural changes that will raise the bar of potential growth above 1.5-2% and make it sustainable. The financial sphere is also in need of such structural changes. What policy response are we seeing in the face of these challenges in the financial sphere? 2 / 11  BIS central bankers' speeches  Above all, focus should be on maximum flexibility. Certainly, the floating rate should be upheld. It is crucial to adjust and constantly re-adjust regulation in established and new spheres based on the principles of proportionality to risks. Since rules quickly become outdated, it is important to gradually transition from management guided by rules to management by principles. Greater attention should be paid to systemic problems and risks, not just to the stability of individual institutions. Adopting the principle of countercyclicality, using macroprudential tools. Early warning of problems both in the system as a whole and in individual institutions.

One example of this is that during earlier periods we could see directly the effect of a 0.25 percentage points lower repo rate on the inflation forecast. Here it is exemplified by two figures from the Monetary Policy Report published in July 2014, at the end of the period when we only used the repo rate and the repo-rate path as tools (see Figure 12). Based on estimates in a macroeconomic model, we could clearly read the expected effect of the monetary policy alternatives on our target fulfilment. But with the extensive toolbox we have used during the coronavirus pandemic we can in principle agree that the measures give the ‘right sign’ as my colleague, Governor Stefan Ingves has put it. It is much more difficult to evaluate the effect on target fulfilment quantitatively. Although many attempts have been made to estimate the effects of the asset purchases on inflation, they are not as certain as the 29 See Sveriges Riksbank (2020c), Sveriges Riksbank (2021a) and Sveriges Riksbank (2021b) for a more detailed description of the Riksbank's views on the proposal. 11 [20]  effects of the repo rate. 30 The obvious explanation is that the channels have not been as fully investigated, and the number of observations to estimate the effects is so small. Here we have a challenge ahead of us. Our independence with regard to monetary policy presupposes openness and clarity to enable accountability.
Exchanges The Singapore Exchange and the Singapore Mercantile Exchange operate the systemicallyimportant securities and futures markets in Singapore. They constitute critical infrastructure that must function properly to preserve stability and efficiency. Our laws require the exchanges to maintain sufficient financial, human and system resources, have frameworks and processes to manage their risks, and to regulate and supervise their participants. OTC derivatives The OTC derivatives space has traditionally been the preserve of sophisticated financial institutions which are well placed to assess and negotiate trades among themselves. These financial institutions are regulated by MAS and the risks associated with their OTC derivatives positions are taken into account under the respective regulatory frameworks for these institutions. OTC derivatives, unlike their more standardised counterparts on futures markets, enable customised hedging of risks. Properly employed, they confer significant benefits to the financial intermediation process and hence the wider economy. For example, interest rate swaps enable companies to convert floating rate loans to fixed-rate loans. Companies with large capital investments over a long horizon, such as airlines, shipping companies and infrastructure builders, rely on interest rate hedging tools to manage their financial risks. But with the rapid growth of OTC derivatives globally, weaknesses in the market structure can contribute to a build-up of systemic risk. We saw this during the global financial crisis. The interconnectedness of OTC derivatives market participants and the limited transparency on counterparty risks can trigger rapid contagion. Under stressed market conditions, this can potentially threaten the stability of the financial system.

In the euro area, fiscal consolidation must continue and crisis management mechanisms must be made operational. In other countries, such as the United States and Japan, future fiscal uncertainties must be eliminated. Finally, stable regulatory regimes, first and foremost in the financial sector, are also essential. For its part, monetary policy must be predicable, not in the sense that each and every move of the monetary authorities be precisely anticipated, but rather, that their objectives be clear and their actions fully understandable by economic agents. Strong, independent and responsible central banks are, more than ever, necessary to price and financial stability. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
I’m here today to speak about how some of those changes are showing up in the economic data as it relates to the recovery. But it’s also important to remember that behind the numbers are families, businesses, and communities that have suffered and continue to face tremendous challenges of all kinds. In my remarks this afternoon I’ll share more about how what we are seeing in the incoming data relates to the economic picture nationally and to this region. I’ll also highlight some of the unique inflation dynamics we are seeing. Finally, I’ll explain what that means for monetary policy and the path forward. Before I continue, I need to give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System. Dual Mandate I know there are a lot of economics students in today’s audience. I won’t quiz you about the Federal Reserve, but one aspect of our work that you may be familiar with is the Fed’s “dual mandate.” These are the two goals set by Congress: maximum employment and price stability. Given these goals, our focus is studying and understanding the wide range of developments that affect employment, unemployment, and inflation. The Economic Outlook So, what are these developments telling us about the current economic outlook? I’ll start by saying that the economy continues to grow at a strong rate.

The reopening of the economy means more jobs, more demand for products, and good momentum toward a full recovery. But, even with the strong pace of growth we are seeing, a full recovery from the 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  pandemic will take quite some time to complete. We’re seeing this process of adjustment to rapidly changing circumstances reflected in the data showing a record number of job openings, supply bottlenecks in sectors such as autos, and sharp increases in prices for some goods and services that are in high demand. One data point that is useful to look at to better understand these dynamics is gross domestic product, or GDP. Thanks to widespread vaccinations and robust fiscal support, we saw rapid growth in the first half of the year. Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, there are indications in the most recent data that the spread of the Delta variant is weighing on consumer spending and jobs, and the pace of growth appears to be slowing somewhat relative to the first half. Overall, I expect inflation-adjusted, or real, GDP to increase around six percent this year. Turning to employment, job gains have been strong in recent months, on balance—particularly in sectors that were especially hit hard at points during the pandemic, such as leisure and hospitality. This growth in demand translates into large numbers of people getting back to work. We’ve seen an average of 750,000 jobs added per month over the three months through August.