samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
At the same time, labour migration has reduced bottlenecks in some industries allowing the economy to expand more briskly than would seem warranted judging by previous experience. Inflation has remained low. According to our indicators underlying inflation appears to be in the range of ¾ - 1½ per cent. Low underlying inflation is not a result of weak economic growth but rather reflects favourable developments on the supply side of the economy. Strong competition, high productivity growth, and a shift in imports towards low-cost countries have dampened domestic price increases. Presently, there is little spare capacity in the Norwegian economy. Demand is still strong and real income growth high. At the same time, the krone exchange rate has depreciated. This should over time result in a pick-up in inflation. The global economy has shown strong growth, and continued solid growth among our trading partners is in prospect. However, there is uncertainty regarding the slow- down in the US economy. Consumer price inflation among a number of our trading partners has risen as a result of rising energy prices, but the increase in prices for other goods and services generally remains moderate. Monetary policy The challenge to monetary policy in the present conjuncture is how the interest rate should be set to steer inflation towards the target while at the same time avoiding overheating in the real economy. Central banks influence over-night market rates directly via the policy rate. However, economic agents’ consumption and investment decisions depend more on their interest rate expectations.

Ida Wolden Bache: Norges Bank’s management of the Government Pension Fund Global Introductory statement by Ms Ida Wolden Bache, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the hearing of the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs of the Storting (Norwegian parliament), 3 May 2022. * * * I would like to thank the Committee for its invitation. Norges Bank manages the GPFG with the objective of achieving the highest possible return over time within the limits of the investment mandate defined by the Ministry of Finance. The objective of the highest possible return is to be achieved within an adequate control and risk management framework, in a responsible and cost-efficient manner with a high degree of transparency. The investment mandate is extensive. Around 70 percent of the over NOK 11 000 billion in the GPFG is invested in equities, which means we are one of the world’s largest shareholders. We a minority shareholder in around 9000 companies in 70 countries. In addition, we have a broad portfolio of fixed income investments. Some of the GPFG is invested in unlisted real estate, and in 2021, we also invested for the first time in unlisted renewable energy infrastructure. The GPFG is managed to track the benchmark index fairly closely, so that the return largely tracks the return on the benchmark index. The benchmark index is defined by the Ministry of Finance and endorsed by the Storting.
Ultimately, this exercise would provide valuable insights on how to 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  best integrate climate-related risks into the Bank’s macroeconomic and financial surveillance activities and feed into wider policy responses to climate change. Third, we will need to address the appropriate treatment of climate risks within the prudential and supervisory frameworks for financial institutions. As a start, the Bank will require financial institutions to report their exposures to climate risks once work on the green taxonomy has been finalised. Information gathered through this process will be used by the Bank to consider changes to prudential standards to better reflect risks from climate-related exposures. Concurrently, the Bank also intends to align, where relevant, the reporting requirements for climate-related risks with the Value-Based Impact Assessment Framework (VBIAF), which will be finalised by October this year, as well as its corresponding VBIAF Sectoral Guide, which is currently being developed. In addition, the Bank will increase its engagements with individual financial institutions to better understand how they consider climate risks in their risk management approaches and practices. Fourth, we need to strengthen the use of disclosures more broadly, to provide greater transparency on how climate risk considerations are integrated into business decisions. Such disclosures, by both financial institutions and non-financial firms, will help drive action towards more effective risk mitigation and better adaptation to climate change. To this end, the Bank will work with the industry to implement the recommendations of the FSB Task Force on Climaterelated Financial Disclosures (TCFD) in Malaysia.

On that note, I look forward to the engaging sessions ahead. Thank you. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches
First, I will discuss the historical and theoretical basis for the current monetary policy. I will then move on to discuss monetary policy in practice and will also look more closely at the requirements inflation targeting imply for our analytical tools. Historical and theoretical basis for inflation targeting - lessons and experiences In particular, two fundamental lessons from the last 30-40 years have taken on considerable importance for economic policy in general and monetary policy in particular. We can, perhaps, say that these lessons have led to a paradigm shift in economic policy. One lesson is that if the authorities do not take into account that economic agents are forward-looking when they make decisions about consumption and investment, wages and prices, this may have adverse consequences. Agents take into account their expectations concerning future economic policy, not only today’s economic policy. It is thus important that the authorities do not sow doubt about their objectives. They must act in a predictable and credible manner within a long-term framework. There must be consistency between the stated objectives of economic policy and what is actually done to achieve these objectives. This is exactly what Kydland and Prescott pointed out in their pioneering work from 1977.2 Their work was based on insights from the theory of rational expectations, an area where Robert Lucas, who received the Nobel Prize in 1995, made a significant contribution.3 Economic agents will not systematically misjudge what the authorities plan to do in the future.

To provide you with some insight into how we work when we make projections for the Norwegian economy, it may be practical to use a tripartite approach: the short-term or current situation, the medium-term or projection period and finally what we call the long-term. The dividing lines are not clearly defined, but are to some extent overlapping as indicated in the chart. Knowledge about the current economic situation is absolutely essential to making projections of economic developments that are useful for monetary policy. We must form a picture of capacity utilisation in the economy and whether it is increasing or decreasing. We must also try to identify the driving forces or disturbances that influence developments. A macroeconomic model will be a useful tool in this connection. Nevertheless, thorough analyses of available economic statistics are the most important source when we are assessing the current situation. To obtain a good picture of the current situation, it is important to consider developments in context and to distinguish between genuinely new information and noise. There is always uncertainty associated with statistics and the quality can vary depending on the source. Frequency and the time from measurement to publication also vary considerably. Economic data are published with a time lag and are often revised. A very useful cross-reference and alternative information channel to official statistics is therefore our own regional network which consists of enterprises, organisations and local authorities throughout the country.
The changed conditions for wage formation have probably also contributed to the two most recent bargaining rounds being characterised by a high degree of cooperation between the labour market organisations. At the same time, there appears to be support among wage-earner organisations for the manufacturing industry to lead the way in collective wage agreement through what is known as the Industrial Agreement. Altogether these changes have entailed an increase in nominal wages of an  BIS Review 7/2003  1  average of 4 per cent a year over the past decade, which can be compared with an average figure of 8 per cent a year during the 1980s. Developments in wage costs over the coming years When we make our wage forecasts at the Riksbank, we base them on a total assessment of collective wage agreements, demand pressure in the labour market, productivity, profit margins, inflation expectations and taxes, to mention just a few factors. This autumn will see the beginning of wage bargaining rounds for more than 2 million employees and the outcome will have crucial importance for the development of inflation and thus monetary policy. The assessment in the December Inflation Report was that the Swedish economy would show a recovery towards the end of the year, following a relatively mild downturn in economic activity. We envisioned a still relatively strong labour market. However, employment was expected to fall slightly to begin with, before slowly showing an upturn once again.

Lars Heikensten: Monetary policy and wage formation Speech by Mr Lars Heikensten, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, to the Riksdag Committee on Finance, Stockholm, 13 February 2003. *  *  *  Firstly, I would like to thank you for the invitation to come here to the Riksdag and discuss wage formation together with Anders Lindström from the National Mediation Office and Ingemar Hansson from the National Institute of Economic Research. I shall begin by describing how we take wage formation into account when making decisions on interest rate changes. Then I shall comment on the assessment made in our most recent Inflation Report (published in December), which we did not find reason to alter significantly at our last monetary policy meeting on 6 February. I shall continue by discussing how wage formation may develop in future. In conclusion, I shall summarise and mention some of the challenges facing wage formation. Just over a decade ago, there was a comprehensive realignment in economic policy. The budgetary process was tightened up. At around the same time, monetary policy changed direction, the exchange rate was allowed to float and the new target was to limit inflation to 2 per cent, with a tolerated deviation of plus/minus 1 percentage point. The economic policy realignment can only be described as a success.
Please be assured that I am not criticising the construction of the CPI, which is, so far as I am able to judge, absolutely appropriate in terms of arriving at an overall cost-of-living index, but I do suggest that some qualifications may be needed if it is to be used in other analysis, such as that of business decisions which we are discussing here. Let me turn now to interest rates. Real rates have been high, at least as measured on the backward-looking basis in slide 4 (ie nominal rates less recorded inflation over the preceding twelve months). This is the arithmetic result of nominal rates which are very much dictated by US rates and recent deflation of prices in Hong Kong. US rates are being held up in part by the extremely buoyant US economy, and you will see from slide 6 that the Hong Kong economy is out of phase with the US, on the downside, to a greater extent than at any time since our exchange rate link was established. The only comparable divergence was in the 1980s, and that was on the upside, when we experienced - in complete contrast to today uncomfortably rapid inflation and negative real interest rates. But tight monetary policy is being balanced by a more relaxed fiscal stance (slide 7), as defined by the size of the budget balance relative to GDP. This is a reversal of the more common position in Hong Kong of relatively loose monetary and tight fiscal policy.

But others might argue that the structural changes of the eighties and nineties which were consistent with an appreciating real rate because of much more rapid productivity gains in the tradable than in the non-tradable sectors, cannot be repeated, so that the assumption of a continuing secular uptrend is invalid. On that view, the net appreciation over the past couple of years may be deemed to have dragged us away from our preferred path. It is hard to judge where the proper balance of these views lies. I recall how, 15-20 years ago, the doom merchants were prophesying the end of Hong Kong’s long run of growth because we were rapidly losing competitiveness in much of manufacturing. Presumably they did not 1  Slides are not included in this text document. 1  BIS Review 54/1999  foresee the remarkable extent to which the service sector would develop as an alternative wealth-generating lynchpin of the economy. Now, the next generation of doom merchants is prophesying imminent disaster as competitiveness in certain parts of the service sector appears to have been eroded. Will they be wrong again? Have they failed to appreciate the true workings of the market economy and comparative advantage? Do they not realise how difficult it is to foretell exactly how an economy will evolve, even though the evolution is taking place right under our noses?
Per Jansson: Some aspects of the economic situation Speech by Mr Per Jansson, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Nordea, Stockholm, 13 March 2012. *  *  *  Today, I will talk about the assessment of the economic situation in Sweden and abroad that I and the majority of the members of the Executive Board made at the monetary policy meeting in February. At the same time, I would like to go into a little more detail about three aspects that were particularly important to my stance regarding the repo-rate decision. Two of these relate to the management of the European debt crisis and one to the risks posed to the Swedish economy by a low repo rate over an extended period of time. Those of you who have read the press release or the minutes from the monetary policy meeting in February know that I voted with the majority for a further repo-rate cut to the current level of 1.50 per cent. Our decision to cut the repo rate was mainly due to the weakening of the prospects for growth in Sweden, which in turn is a result of the impact of weaker economic development abroad. International outlook marked by the euro area’s debt crisis The fact that economic activity abroad has weakened recently primarily relates to developments in the euro area.

At the same time, the decisions by the ECB in December and in February to offer the banks in the euro area three-year loans against collateral have helped to stabilise the situation on the financial markets. So, although the situation in Europe is still problematic, we can see that progress is being made at approximately the rate the Riksbank has estimated. In such a scenario we can expect to see a recovery in the euro area, although a weak one, over the next few years. Poorer performance abroad leading to slowdown in Sweden The weak performance in Europe at the moment is affecting the Swedish economy in several ways. First, the demand for Swedish exports is falling. This was also the main reason why growth slowed down in the economy at the end of last year. Second, household and corporate confidence in the economy is falling and this in turn is leading to a slowdown in consumption and investment. The financial situation in Sweden is also affected by developments abroad. The fall in share prices in 2011 reduced the financial wealth of the households, which contributed to an increase in saving. It is unlikely that there will be any significant decline in saving in the period immediately ahead as the low level of growth is expected to reduce employment and increase unemployment.
Speeches  Published Date: 19 May 2022  "A Future Ready Workforce for an International Financial Centre" - Opening Remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director, Monetary Authority of Singapore, at Singapore Financial Forum 2022 on 19 May 2022 Good morning from Singapore. I am pleased to join all of you, including our overseas Singaporeans and their friends, as well as leaders and professionals from Singapore’s financial centre at today’s forum. Singapore’s financial centre is doing exceedingly well, and prospects remain bright for the years ahead. The financial sector performed strongly throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. The sector [1] grew by an annual average of 7.2% during 2020-21, four times faster than the overall economy. The last two years also saw 5,800 net jobs created in financial services. Growth has been broad-based – across banking, insurance, asset management, and payment services. We have grown steadily as a leading fund management and domiciliation hub, with 500 variable capital companies incorporated in Singapore since we introduced this new investment fund structure just two years ago. We are now Asia’s leading foreign exchange centre, with FX trading volume growing an average 13% every year from 2017 to 2021, with a modern e-FX trading ecosystem taking deep root. We are powering Asia’s development, with infrastructure investment growing five-fold and project finance by 80%, from 2016 to 2020. The Singapore economy remains on track to grow by 3–5% in 2022 barring a further worsening in the external environment. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has generated both growth and inflation risks globally.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I am happy to inform you that among the products on exhibition here, we have Finance Building Society marketing loans without collateral. This is a very welcome  2  BIS Review 29/2008  development as one of the challenges to women accessing finance is the requirement for collateral which most do not have. We also have the United Nations country office with all their respective agencies participating in this exhibition to show case how they are supporting women in this country. We appreciate your collaboration with us in this exhibition. The Environmental Council of Zambia has also joined with the financial institutions to increase our awareness on environmental issues and thus promote sustainable development. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, I believe the next two days will be very informative and rewarding. We have 10 commercial banks, 2 building societies and over 10 microfinance institutions exhibiting their products. I understand that tomorrow, these institutions will be recognizing some of their most loyal and exemplary customers and for this I commend them. I am sure that not only women but men will find this exhibition beneficial and I wish you a productive and informative two days. Thank you. BIS Review 29/2008  3
After almost two decades of high inflation, the rise in prices stabilised in many countries in the 1990s. At the beginning of the 1980s, annual inflation in industrial countries was about 13 per cent. In the course of the following decade, it fell below 2 per cent. Monetary policy in other countries The formal framework for monetary policy varies somewhat across countries. Inflation targeting is the norm in small and medium-sized open economies, and has been introduced in more than 20 countries. New Zealand was the first to do so – in 1989. Canada, Sweden, Australia and the UK followed suit in the 1990s. A number of countries that have not formally introduced inflation targeting have nevertheless oriented their monetary policy towards low and stable inflation in practice. Among them are the euro area countries and the US. Nor does the Bank of Japan have a formal inflation target, but since 9 March this year its monetary policy has been oriented towards achieving an inflation rate of between zero and two per cent in the medium and long term. In a number of countries, price stability is ranked above managing output and employment. Examples are the UK and the euro area. Price stability is regarded as a condition for monetary policy contributing to stable output and employment. In the Federal Reserve Act, in the US, the objectives of full employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates are given equal weight.

Interest rates remain low among several of our trading partners, even though they have been raised so far this year in a number of countries as a result of rising energy prices and higher consumer price inflation. In the US, there are now expectations that the interest rate has peaked, and that it will be lowered in the course of summer 2007. A rise in key rates is expected over the next year in the euro area, Sweden, the UK, Australia, Japan and Switzerland. One risk factor is that inflation in the US and the euro area may be higher than expected. In the event, interest rates internationally are likely to rise more than the current outlook would imply and curb growth among our trading partners. In the past two years, oil prices have doubled, measured in USD. With little spare production capacity, even minor disruptions in supply or demand can have a relatively strong impact on prices. It is likely that global growth will remain buoyant. This may contribute to keeping oil prices at a high level. Recently, oil prices have been around USD 70 per barrel. Brent Blend futures prices have also climbed and indicate that oil prices will remain high for several years to come. Prices for a number of other commodities – including natural gas and some metals – have also risen sharply in recent years. So far, high oil prices have not led to slower growth in the world economy.