samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As for the components of expenditure, private consumption growth was low and investment continued to fall in annual terms. The sharp decline in durables consumption and in investment in machinery and equipment stood out once more (figure 2). The drastic adjustment of expenditure and the depreciated peso have resulted in a fast reduction of the current- account deficit, whether measured at either trend prices or actual prices (figure 3). As I said, the sluggish economic figures of the third quarter are compounded with partial fourth-quarter indicators that show no significant recovery in spending. The annual change in imports of consumer and capital goods remains negative; various indicators of retail sales show similar trends to those of previous months; and construction-related data shows persistent weakness (figure 4). A similar picture is seen in manufacturing which, with the main exception export sectors, reveals a steady decline in activity. The scenario for investment in construction and works, one of the most inertial components of expenditure, has also deteriorated. The September survey of the Capital Goods Corporation (CBC) further revised the amounts foreseen for 2014 and 2015, taking them below 2013 figures. This economic slowdown has occurred in a context where business and household expectations have turned more pessimistic (figure 5). For consumers, this worsening occurs in a scenario where higher inflation has eroded households’ purchasing power.

It is striking, too, to find how many of the lessons of the CREST project remain relevant today, as the Bank begins its consultation on a new RTGS service: •  We set out the strategic drivers for change in a speech by the Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking in January this year: a combination of aging core technology and an unprecedented pace of change in the external payments environment. We secured the broad support of others in the public sector, including HM Treasury and the Payments Services Regulator. And we set out a clear set of policy goals: to maintain or enhance stability and resilience, whilst also delivering a system better able to enable change, innovation and competition. 6  The “nasty” description of Iain Saville owes more than a little to journalistic licence: a somewhat later interview with him at the time of CREST’s launch paints a rather sweeter picture – his car, a Vauxhall Carlton Estate; his passion, singing with the Dulwich Choral Society; and his reason for shaving off his bushy moustache in 1994 not the pressures of the project but his wife’s (firmly stated) wishes! 7  According to the FT, a computer manager at one of the big four banks described TAURUS as “like building a car that had air conditioning, a fancy stereo and electric windows … we should have built a straightforward production car first, then added the bits on later.” Expectations of automotive technology have clearly moved on since the 1990s.
William C Dudley: The regional economic outlook Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Economic Press Briefing, New York City, 26 August 2015. *  *  *  Good morning and welcome to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Economic Press Briefing. I am pleased to have this opportunity to speak with you today about economic conditions in our District. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System. Tracking economic conditions in our region is an important part of our work here at the New York Fed. We need to understand how the diverse economies in our District are performing—from the metropolis of New York City and its surrounding areas, to rural communities in upstate New York and the tropical island of Puerto Rico. I take all of this to the table when the FOMC discusses business and economic conditions and trends. In addition, we provide our regional analysis to the public so that everyone can benefit from our work. At today’s briefing, we will share some of this work with you. As president of the New York Fed, I believe it is essential to listen firsthand to a broad set of businesses and people in the communities we serve to get as comprehensive a picture as possible of how our region is doing.

As in many places around the region, employers in Rochester are having difficulty finding workers to fill a number of middle-skill jobs, like nurses, automotive technicians and computer-controlled machine operators. Out of this partnership, we launched a pilot project challenging college students to create a short video profiling middle-skill jobs that are available in the area in order to drum up interest in opportunities many people may not even know exist. Access to credit for small businesses is another important issue we’ve focused on in recent years. Our outreach group conducts a bi-annual poll of small businesses in our region to better understand their credit needs and access to credit. The results consistently show that gaining access to credit is one of the top growth challenges for small businesses. In my visits across the District, I have heard small business owners voice similar concerns. In response, we’ve helped bring small businesses together with lenders to help smooth access to credit. Over the past year we have conducted ten access-to-credit events— workshops, clinics and conferences—for companies interested in learning about traditional and alternative sources of financing. We partnered with local and national government agencies, small business development centers and local nonprofit organizations to hold these events throughout the District. One such workshop was held recently in Queens. The Queens Economic Development Corporation and the Queens Chamber of Commerce, with support from the New York Fed’s Asian Professional Network Alliance, co-sponsored a resource clinic for small businesses.
This development in turn is a consequence of the consolidation of central government finances in the euro countries. However, at the same time, the introduction of the euro has led to increased competition for treasury-bond investors' money. Previously, the governments were alone in their respective domestic markets. Today, they are doing battle for loans from the same source of financing. This competition has led to a number of changes to increase liquidity on the secondary market for treasury bonds. For instance, the average size of the issues has increased. The editions have also become increasingly standardised. Other means used to maintain liquidity are repurchases and bond swaps. On the other hand, the cross-border diversification in investors' portfolios has increased at a much slower rate than anticipated. Rapid expansion in the euro stock market With regard to the stock markets, stock exchange trading in the euro countries was converted into euro right from the start of the EMU in 1999. This means that approximately three-quarters of share trading throughout Europe and one-quarter of international share trading is now in euro. If one examines this development a little more closely, it becomes clear that the increased degree of financing outside of the banking sector that can now be perceived on the interest rate markets is also visible in the stock market. It is possible to measure this development in slightly different ways, but all measures show the same picture.

4  BIS Review 85/2001  However, in the short-term and medium-term, real incomes may vary depending on the currency in which wages and prices are contracted, as wages, prices and nominal exchange rates are adapted at different rates to changes in productivity. As we know, in the short-term and medium-term, nominal exchange rates can vary considerably, and to a greater extent than is motivated by the differences in inflation rates between different countries. This means that an article can have different prices in different countries during a fairly long period of time. This can be noticed for instance, in Sweden, where price levels are still higher than in other countries in most fields, without this being fully explained by differences in VAT. While Sweden's membership of the single market has certainly led to stiffer competition and greater price pressure in some areas, competition still appears to be weak in several branches and sectors. Increased competition contributes in principle to a convergence in price levels, as the rate of price increase declines, or as prices perhaps even fall on a market exposed to greater competition. All else being equal, inflation in Sweden would then be lower than the inflation target of 2%, and this would not normally be counteracted by the Riksbank's monetary policy, as it is a temporary effect. Naturally, it is difficult for the Riksbank to decide in practice whether such price trends are a result of increased competition unless they are, for instance, connected to changes in regulations.
As has been the trend of the last few quarters, its evolution has been closely related to the exchange rate (figure 1). The surprise in headline inflation came mainly from foodstuffs (particularly fresh fruits and vegetables), whose prices showed atypical behavior for the season, very different from historical patterns. As a reference, between August and October these prices —which represent 2.9% of the CPI basket— averaged an annual variation of around -9%, which compares with roughly +7% in the last ten years. The baseline scenario assumes that headline inflation will remain around 2% during the first half of 2018, and will return to 3% during the first half of 2019, somewhat later than we expected in September. Core inflation will also remain low in the coming quarters, to converge to 3% in the second part of 2019, somewhat later than headline inflation (figure 2). The projected behavior of prices in the medium term is mainly based on a gradual closing of the activity gap, a process that is expected to begin during the second half of 2018. On this point, neither the recent data nor the projections of the baseline scenario have changed much from September. In the third quarter, non-mining activity—used to estimate the gap—continued to show limited annual growth (which reached 1.7%), below the potential of the economy (which we continue to estimate around 2.5%) and aggregate GDP (2.2%).

Mugur Isărescu: Some considerations of the impact of monetary policy on the economic convergence Speech by Mr Mugur Isărescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the Conference on Europe Economic Integration 2018 "How to finance cohesion in Europe? ", Panel 1 "The role of monetary policy in catching-up", organized by the Central Bank of the Republic of Austria (Oesterreichische Nationalbank),Vienna, 26 November 2018. * * * As prepared for delivery Ladies and gentlemen, I am honoured to join such a distinguished audience. After so many years spent as the Governor of the National Bank of Romania, today’s discussion gives me yet another opportunity to look back at the role that monetary policy has played in supporting nominal and real convergence in Romania. It is almost two decades since the Romania – EU accession negotiations had been opened (back then, in 2000, I served as the prime-minister). Romania has been an EU member for more than 10 years already. Allow me to share with you my view, shaped by the lessons learned over all these years, on the relationship between monetary policy and economic convergence. Let me first make a couple of considerations about economic convergence. First, while the nominal convergence criteria are deeply rooted in the minds of policymakers, the Maastricht Treaty also explicitly stipulates that “a high degree of sustainable convergence” is needed. Yet, this requirement seems to have been overlooked sometimes. Second, practical experience with euro adoption so far has proved that real convergence is also critical for success.
This translated into a drag on the economic recovery. As a result, the singleness of monetary policy was no longer ensured, posing significant challenges to the ECB’s policy conduct. Fixing the monetary transmission mechanism and the elimination of tail risks The ECB responded forcefully to these challenges with a number of standard and nonstandard monetary policy measures. The main purpose of the non-standard measures was to reduce financial fragmentation and restore an appropriate functioning of its monetary policy across the euro area. In particular, the measures were geared towards removing two sources of risk premia: bank funding risks and redenomination fears. Higher funding risks for banks had been a symptom of the crisis ever since liquidity strains had first emerged, almost overnight, in the summer of 2007. They had escalated to systemic proportions after the Lehman demise. Since the onset of the crisis, the ECB’s mainstay response to this problem has been twofold: a policy of unlimited provision of liquidity at fixed interest rates against eligible collateral in the weekly main refinancing and longer-term operations, and an extension of maturity of the liquidity operations from 3 months to up to 3 years. This dual approach to crisis management has been reinforced by two further initiatives. First, collateral rules have been adapted in various stages with a view to broadening the pool of assets that banks could mobilise for Eurosystem liquidity provision.

Thank you for your attention. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
If the Central Bank had stayed its hand now, despite the worsening outlook and the myriad of indicators of continuing deterioration, accusations of indifference, and even cowardice, would have been appropriate in view of the criticism to which the Bank has been subjected recently, some of it from quite unlikely sources. A few decades ago, when Iceland was engaged in disputes over its territorial fishing waters, we shot blanks first before loading the weapons on our tiny Coast Guard cruisers with real ammunition, and even then we thought it sufficient to shoot wide of the mark rather than aiming directly at the alleged offenders. The Cod Wars are bathed in a romantic glow in Icelandic history, but they were no small matter at the time, a daring game of chance by a tiny country contending with much larger neighbours. At one point it was said that Icelanders had won that unequal battle, that we couldn’t have afforded to lose it. The same applies, actually, to the fight against inflation. We can’t afford to lose it. Inflation must not take root in this economy again. We must take decisive action against it, no matter how unpleasant – or even costly – the effort may be in the short run. There is no need to go into detail about the consequences of inflation for the income and financial position of businesses and households; the repercussions are familiar enough.

Unemployment in the EU and the euro area has reached historic levels, especially amongst the youth. Economic growth is weak and is mainly concentrated in central countries of the euro area. Our countries have been affected by this situation for objective reasons. Trade relations, movement of capital and workers, and the financial system are channels that pass these problems on to our economies. The form, size and extent of this impact have evolved over the past four years. At present, the situation is reflected in the decrease of domestic demand, decline of economic growth, reduction of available income, loss of confidence and deterioration of optimism; this is, in turn, reflected in higher savings. Consequently, these developments have placed the focus of economic policies towards economic activity and revitalisation of optimism in order to boost investments and consumption. On the other hand, maintaining financial stability becomes a necessity, creating thus a binomial of priorities that condition each other and require a simultaneous solution. The Albanian economy is increasingly facing the challenge of economic growth. Although the Albanian economy enjoys consolidated macroeconomic stability and sound financial foundations, aggregate demand has been weak during the first nine months of 2012. Both domestic and foreign demand suffer from high uncertainty, relatively tight lending standards, and limited space for discretionary and stimulating policies.
In China, for example, the service sector has grown to more than half of GDP in 2015, much of it driven by a surge in e-commerce and the expansion in logistical services required to support it. Moreover, as the cost of digital technology declines, a wider range of services are becoming more tradable including design, marketing, business processes, and education. Thus not only has the service sector 3  become more important within a country, the share of international trade in services has also increased markedly. The third, and perhaps most unsettling transitional force, is the ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance adopted by major advanced economies. What started out as extraordinary responses to a precipitous crisis, unconventional monetary policy measures have not only been maintained, but in many cases have been applied more intensively with ever greater degree of experimentation and radicalism. It is striking that after all this time, the crisis mentality among policy circles has yet to fully abate. The agglomeration of these transitional forces has had profound impacts on economies the world over. Together, the slowdown in world trade and the shift to services have underpinned important changes in inflation and growth dynamics. In terms of inflation, globalization has for many years increased the importance of foreign factors in price dynamics. Persistently low and more synchronized inflation is partly attributable to the effects of rising competitive pressures in world markets as well as common forces such as falling energy prices. As global trade adjusts, the influence of external factors has regained prominence.

Today, it amounts to 13%. It was also said at the time that one franc out of three was made abroad. Today, it is one franc in two! The 1990s marked the real turning point in our economy’s trend toward globalisation. Our commercial relations with China are exemplary in this regard. After having levelled off at approximately 900 million francs a year in the late 1990s, our exports to China grew at a rapid pace in more recent years, reaching 2.9 billion francs in 2004. With regard to Chinese exports to Switzerland, the trend is just as spectacular, but much more steady. Sales of products manufactured in China in the Swiss market have risen continuously for 20 years now, be it textiles, electronic equipment or - naturally - product components that are reintegrated into our domestic production. Owing to soaring exports to China, our trade balance with this country has thus flattened out steadily; toward the end of the 1990s, it was clearly negative, in 2004 we even had a slight surplus. Despite the rapid expansion of our trade with China, its overall significance remains modest, amounting to just 2% of total Swiss trade. From a Chinese perspective, the relative importance of trade relations with Switzerland is even smaller. Switzerland accounts for less than 1% of Chinese imports and exports. A similar picture can be observed with respect to Swiss foreign direct investment here. Despite a thirty-fold increase between 1993 and 2003, it still amounts to less than 0.6% of total Swiss investment abroad.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: New platform to serve the Islamic financial industry Keynote address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the launch of Bloomberg’s Enhanced Islamic Finance Platform, Kuala Lumpur, 21 February 2011. *  *  *  It is my pleasure to join you this morning at this Launch of the Bloomberg Enhanced Islamic finance platform. This development is timely as Islamic finance is envisioned to continue to make great strides in this new decade. Such an information platform is an important element for the more efficient functioning of the Islamic financial markets in the international financial system. In this recent ten years we have seen significant developments in Islamic finance in both our domestic and the international financial system. In this more challenging and uncertain environment, Islamic finance has demonstrated its resilience and viability and has sustained its growth momentum. Today, with the increasing internationalisation of Islamic finance, its continued growth and expansion will very much depend on extensive information which can be efficiently accessed. Bloomberg has for two decades been serving the Islamic financial community providing access to news offerings and timely data and information. The initiative today to enhance its Islamic finance platform is thus a highly welcomed development. The seamless flow of information in the Islamic financial markets is integral to facilitate the efficient price discovery process and maintain the vibrancy of the Islamic financial industry.

2016 has already got off to a volatile start: weakness in financial and commodity markets, originating in China and the Middle East; political uncertainty in Europe, in southern Europe, in Eastern Europe, in north-western Europe with the British referendum, and even in central Europe with the refugee crisis. It is our duty to be vigilant, but we have two other imperatives: on the one hand, to separate the reality from the hype, the real challenges – and there is no shortage of them – from the sensationalist and sometimes excessive statements made early this year; on the other, to stick to our medium-term objectives in the face of the current volatility. This evening, I will not speak of monetary policy, since we are in the silent period before the Governing Council meeting on Thursday. But this long-term strategy must apply to economic policy as a whole, including the need for reform. a) Today a confirmed recovery is underway, with growth of over 1% in France in 2015 and 1.5% in the euro area. In 2016, despite the uncertainties, all indicators point to higher growth.