samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Painful fines and enforcement actions have led to intense scrutiny of internal conduct. Over 330 firms have signed the UK Women in Finance Charter, committing themselves to supporting the progression of women into senior roles, setting and publishing progress against gender diversity targets, linking senior executive pay to those targets, and appointing a named senior executive to be accountable for gender diversity. 17 And the FX Global Code that I mentioned earlier has introduced clearly defined standards demonstrating which behaviours are no longer acceptable, rebuilding trust in the market and removing obstacles to open, non-biased recruitment. These higher ethical standards will make the sector more accessible and inclusive, improving the number of opportunities, but also strengthening the appeal of working in the FX market. 15  https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2016/jun/women-in-financial-services-2016.html From 2014 report by CitiFX, available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/paym/groups/pdf/fxcg/2301/Retail_FX.pdf?8b9766f1bbf56797757c4c2cb391f305 17 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/women-in-finance-charter 16  8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  8  Culture change takes time and sustained commitment from leaders. But these initiatives, coupled with the profound technological and economic changes that I have been discussing, will leave the FX market of 5-10 years’ time in a very different place to where it was in the pre-crisis era. There has never been a better time to get involved. What is the Bank of England doing? Just as diversity is essential to the continued success of the FX market, it is also fundamental to the delivery of the Bank’s public mission: promoting the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability.

And actually that’s what gives me greatest optimism that we will succeed – because if I had to choose one market to epitomise that hard-edged business instinct, it would be foreign exchange, where ultimately good ideas thrive and objective results speak louder than anything else. So to all of you interested in a career in the FX markets, I say: come and get involved. It’s exciting, important and changing fast. The things that might have put you off in the past are being dismantled – and what’s left is a vibrant and vitally important market where you can really make a difference, both in shaping the future, and in supporting the vital underlying economic activity that relies on it. We need your talent and your skills to help drive change further. I look forward to meeting many of you later, and to hearing from some of the great role models speaking in the later panels. Thank you. 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  10
Where others had led, our economy now thrives on high-skilled industries, some on the frontiers of innovation. Looking back, we can take great pride in our achievements as a nation. Looking forward, there are infinite possibilities that await us. But there are challenges that we need to navigate and overcome. I shall mention some of them. First, a challenging global environment. Nearly a decade on from the Global Financial Crisis, the global economy continues to remain relatively weak. World growth is projected to grow an average of 3.5% in the next two years. Amid a mood of economic uncertainty, protectionism, once thought of as an irrelevant concept, has made an unexpected re-entry into the global discourse on international trade. Second, technological progress. The speed at which this is occurring means that our greatest challenge is anticipating the technologies that will have the greatest impact on our lives. As public officials, we need to appreciate how technological progress will influence the way public policies are formulated and communicated. Third, demographic shifts. At present, an estimated 26.3% of our total population is between the ages of 25 to 40 years old. This represents a group of better-educated individuals, used to unfettered access to information. They are likely to have higher expectations on public service. The era of “government knows best” is a past participle. Our engagements must therefore adapt and respond to evolving norms of our society. These are some of the challenges we are facing. The challenges are enormous yet exciting.

The rise in the value of what we can buy with our take-home pay has allowed businesses to recruit from a larger pool of labour without having to raise wages. The other factor is migration. Over the past few years, the impact of migration, particularly from the new member countries of the European Union, has been substantial. The official data on total net migration are derived from small and incomplete surveys, so we cannot pretend to have an accurate idea of the real extent of migration. But, based on responses to the International Passenger Survey, net inward migration between 1995 and 2004 was estimated to have been 1.3million, compared with a rise in the labour force as a whole of 1.7 million. We do know that the labour force has recently been expanding twice as fast as in the rest of the post-war period. Migration on this scale raised the  2  BIS Review 52/2006  potential growth rate of the UK economy and probably dampened the response of costs and prices to changes in demand. That was the past. What of the future? Is there a lesson for the Monetary Policy Committee from the experience since 1992 of stable inflation with large changes in unemployment? I think there is. It is that the MPC, in trying to keep inflation close to our 2% target, must recognise that movements in demand and employment cannot be considered independently of changes in the structure of the economy.
So there is a ground. We may asses that the shareholder in Slovenia is currently in unfavorable condition and is unable to financially support the bank in Macedonia. Not only financially, but also from a functional point of view. We have not yet made that assessment, but we could. It is an argument that we could use at any time if the shareholders from Slovenia do not perceive the situation here realistically and do not take the right decisions for their bank in Macedonia. The Euro area is out of recession. You were the most optimistic, even more than the government, and projected growth of 2.2 percent for this year. Do you remain at this projection or will it go up? The latest projection is still 2.2 percent, although we make a reassessment every month. Currently, developments are somewhat more favorable than those we have taken into account in our projection of 2.2 percent. It is true that at the very beginning we came out with the highest estimate for the economic growth this year. The data available so far suggest that we would be the closest to the actual development, which could be even better. In the beginning, in the first and second quarters, growth in the Macedonian economy was driven by some factors that were not very much related to the situation in the euro area, but our expectations for the second half of the year were that the European economy will recover, and that it will contribute positively to growth.

Therefore, we have a small increase in bad loans, which reached about 12 percent. I think this process will slowly wind down. Then, together with the reduction of the risks that banks see in the real sector, and which will come to the surface now after the positive signals from the European economy, lending to companies will become a little more intensive. In one of its reports NBRM has pointed out that one of the limiting factors for higher credit growth are some conservative strategies in the local banking groups. What specifically did you mean? Yes, we pointed out the conservative strategies. And it is no secret that here we primarily think of the problems that some of the banks present in Macedonia have in their home countries. Banks in Slovenia and Greece are in serious problems, even though their banks in Macedonia are among the best, by both the quality of corporate governance and the credit risk management, and also the level of capital and liquidity they have is the highest in our  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  banking system. So, their banks in Macedonia have no impediment to normally work and grant loans. But don’t they grant loans normally? Well, some of them are quite restrained. We constantly talk to them and they promise to be more active in the market. Which of them are restrained? Stopanska Banka has been quite restrained in recent years, but it always had positive rates of credit growth. It has never cut lending.
Its implementation must also be timely, which requires having enough information for a better understanding of the economic environment, and acting promptly when changes occur. Obviously this entails taking some risks, as certainty is always elusive. One example of this may come from the recent evolution of monetary policy conduct in Chile. At our presentation before this Committee last December, we noted that our baseline scenario featured as a working assumption that the monetary stimulus would be boosted by 50 basis points, which would be done in the following months. New information convinced us that such impulse would need to be speeded up, so we took action in our monetary policy meetings of January and March. Moreover, the Report I am presenting you now uses a MPR trajectory that goes al little further as a working assumption. Also, as always, as circumstances change and the medium-term inflation outlook varies, monetary policy will be adjusted accordingly. Furthermore, monetary policy and its underlying diagnosis must be persistent enough for it to influence economic decisions regarding saving, investment and pricing, which operate with significant lags. In Chile, estimates indicate that it takes from two to eight quarters for a MPR movement to completely pass through to the economy. Now, this can vary if economic conditions are complex or the magnitude of the impulse is estimated to be still not large enough. The events in the developed world during recent years provide a good example.

However, the economy has been weaker, widening the activity gap beyond expectations and reducing inflationary pressures. Accordingly, the Board deemed it appropriate to enhance the 7  monetary stimulus between January and March. Going forward, we believe that it will be necessary to increase this monetary impulse a bit more, using as a working assumption that the MPR will follow a a trajectory similar to the one implied by financial asset prices during the ten days prior to this statistical closing of this Report. As always, we reaffirm our commitment to conduct monetary policy with flexibility, so that projected inflation stands at 3% in the policy horizon. I will now share some final thoughts. Final thoughts The evolution of the economy in recent years has brought great challenges for monetary policy making around the world. The actions of central banks were paramount to take the world out of the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and to prevent a relapse in the following years, especially in those countries with less room for fiscal maneuvering. During this long period the effectiveness of monetary policy to influence inflation and economic activity was called into question. Though less dramatic than in other places, in Chile this discussion is also revisited every now and then. Before responding to the question of how effective monetary policy is, we must clarify two points: what objective does it pursue, and how does it operate, and then we can explore whether the means contribute to the ends.
12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 13 U.S.: Fed fund rates and public debt (percent) 16  100  14  90  12  80  10  70  8  60  6  50  4  40  2  30  0  20 82  86  90  94  Fed funds rate  98  02  06  10  Public debt (% of GDP)  Sources: Bloomberg, U.S. Economic Analysis Department and U.S. Treasury Department. Figure 14 Sovereign risk premiums (*) (basis points) 7.000  7.000  700  700  6.000  6.000  600  600  5.000  5.000  500  500  4.000  4.000  400  400  3.000  3.000  300  300  2.000  2.000  200  200  1.000  1.000  100  100  0  0  0  0 10 jul.10ene.11 Jul. 11 jul.11 Jul. ene.10 Ireland  Portugal  10 jul.10 Jul. ene.11 11 Jul. ene.10 jul.11 Greece  Italy  France  Germany  Spain  (*) Measured through 5-yr CDS premiums. Source: Bloomberg. BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  Figure 15 Long-term nominal interest rate variation (percentage points) Turkey Israel Brazil South Korea Canada Australia Colombia (3) Mexico Germany U.S. Chile (2) -2,0  -1,5  -1,0  vs. max.

This was not at all what most people had predicted - given the earlier  1  BIS Review 92/2000  widespread fears of an overheating US economy and the progressive widening of the US current account deficit - and most conventional analysis has for some considerable time now suggested that, on “the fundamentals”, the euro has become increasingly undervalued. I share that view. Why then has the euro weakness persisted? Frankly I’m not at all sure that anyone really knows the answer to that question. What I think we were all somewhat slow to recognise was the impact of the remarkable acceleration of productivity growth in the US economy - not just faster productivity growth but accelerating productivity growth on the latest data up to the second quarter of this year. This has allowed the US economy to continue to grow faster than before without generating inflationary pressures - though there is clearly a limit to how far that can go. But accelerating productivity growth has also increased prospective returns on investment in the US which has contributed to a huge net inflow of capital - in the form of both direct and portfolio investment - which has much more than financed the US current account deficit. The numbers are truly massive.
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On a more general view, the first effects of our reaction are evident in curbing the increase of inflation and settling it on a declining trajectory. Our assessments show that in the absence of this reaction, inflation would have averaged 4.5 percentage points higher throughout the 2022 – 2024 horizon, having significant negative consequences on both the purchasing power of households and non-performing loans ratio. At the same time, our activity in the field of supervision, regulation and licensing of the banking sector, in 2022, focused on three main directions: (i) guaranteeing the soundness of the banking sector, in presence of real and financial shocks triggered by the war in Ukraine; (ii) monitoring the impact that the upward trend of interest rates had on the balance sheets of the banking sector; and, (iii) dealing with the intense and  3/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  organised cyber-attacks on the country's financial industry and infrastructure. The results of our work in these directions have been positive, helping the banking sector to successfully tackle the challenges of 2022. In parallel with them, we have aimed to further improve our regulatory base and our macroprudential policies and instruments, to further strengthen banking supervision, as well as to promote the development of the payment system, through upgrading the legal, regulatory and infrastructural base. In more concrete terms: First, the Bank of Albania has continued to complete and improve the supervisory regulatory framework, aiming at its approximation with the EU acquis and Basel Committee principles.
However, the very fact of sharing and the multiple parties involved can give rise to risks of their own - particularly of a legal nature - which means that the documentation in syndicated loans needs to be as watertight as possible. The benefits of standardised documentation This is why the Association’s initiative in producing a suite of standard loan documents is so important, and is probably the Association’s major achievement to date. Good documentation is not glamorous and is generally not fascinating reading, but it plays a vital role in underpinning the growth and liquidity of markets in financial products. This is not a theoretical proposition. The explosive growth in the derivatives market is to a large extent due to the role played by the International Swaps & Derivatives Association (ISDA) in the development and maintenance of its derivatives documentation. The most recent testimony to this is the emergence within the space of the last few years of a $ 1 trillion credit derivatives market, built on the platform provided by the Standardised ISDA Default Swap Documentation. Why is standardised documentation such a powerful driver of market growth? The answer is that it creates more predictability and certainty about the characteristics of the financial contract in question. BIS Review 33/2002  1  People are better able to understand what their rights and obligations are under the contract, and this gives them more confidence to enter the market and transact.

Borrowers will benefit from documentation that is easier to understand because it is written in (relatively) plain English and strikes an appropriate balance between the interests of lender and borrower. I understand that the Association’s documentation embodies both these concepts. It is important that the borrower community should buy into the new documentation. In this connection, it is reassuring to know that the new documents are based substantially on those of the Loan Markets Association (LMA) in London. These have already been widely adopted in the European loan market and were developed in association with the UK Association of Corporate Treasurers. I believe that it is also intended to seek input from the borrower community in Hong Kong to help further develop the documentation. Standardised documentation can therefore be described almost unreservedly as a good thing. This is subject to only two provisos. The first is that the basic documents will still need to be tailored to suit individual transactions - and the documents leave gaps for this to be done. This means that banks should not be lulled into a false sense of security. Legal advice will still be required for individual transactions, which should be good news for at least some of the people in this room. Second, the standard terms will need to evolve and be revised to take account of changing market circumstances and particular issues that arise. They may on occasions need to be tested in the courts.
Increased competition means that companies have to use their resources more effectively and be more cost-conscious. Growth and productivity will therefore increase. Lasting effects on productivity growth could affect the potential growth rate, i.e. how quickly the economy can grow given the amount of labour and capital available and without a rapid rise in 3 inflation. However, this type of development is not without problems. If there is a series of improvements in productivity, the result will be higher growth and limited pressure on prices. During such periods there may be slightly exaggerated optimism over long-term sustainable growth in profits and income, which will also tend to affect prices of various assets, such as shares, houses and apartments. If the central bank makes the mistake of conducting an overly mild monetary policy during such a period, perhaps because inflation is below the target level for a period of several years, there is a risk that the underlying price pressure will increase and future inflation will soar. The relationship between potential growth and competition is not unambiguous. It may be the case that a new invention gives rise to a temporary monopoly – partly due to legislation regarding patents and partly because it involves technological progress. Some economists, and in particular Joseph Schumpeter, have even claimed that the endeavour to achieve these temporary innovation monopolies is one of the most important driving forces behind technological developments (which together with labour supply comprise the motor for long-term potential growth).

But the commitment to our objective also implies alertness to future risks and a readiness to respond to them should the medium-term outlook continue to deteriorate significantly. In this case as well, the ECB will adopt all the monetary policy actions that are necessary and proportionate to achieve its objective. We are not short of instruments to deliver on our mandate. 1 See Draghi, M. (2018), “The outlook for the euro area economy”, speech at the Frankfurt European Banking  Congress, Frankfurt am Main, 16 November. 2 Three-month-on-three-month percentage changes; CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. 3 See De Bondt, G. and Hahn, E. (2014), “Introducing the Euro Area-wide Leading Indicator (ALI): Real-Time  Signals of Turning Points in the Growth Cycle from 2007 to 2011”, Journal of Forecasting, 33:47–68. 4 See Anderson G. and Y. Liu (2012), “On the Road to Recovery, Soft Patches Turn Up Often”, The Regional  Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pp. 12–13. 5 Leverage is calculated by dividing total liabilities net of shares and other equity by total assets. 6 Consolidated gross debt is defined as the sum of total loans granted to NFCs net of intra-sectoral lending, debt  securities issued and pension liabilities. 7 See Botelho, V. and Dias da Silva, A. (2019), “Employment growth and GDP in the euro area”, Box 3 in Economic  Bulletin, Issue 2, ECB.