samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This difference is primarily due to the even more expansionary monetary policy compared with last December. With the global economy improving and Swiss business activity picking up, an enduringly expansionary monetary policy will in time lead to higher inflation rates. We consider the current level of the three-month Libor rate as appropriate for the time being to enable the economy to return to sustainable, inflation-free growth. Monetary policy decision-making is difficult under present circumstances. Given the strength of the Swiss franc we have very considerably relaxed monetary policy and cut interest rates much more than the European central bank. We are aware that our expansionary policy entails certain risks. Yet we believe that in view of the sluggish development of the Swiss economy and the strength of the Swiss franc we are conducting a reasonable policy. To adopt a more restrictive monetary policy would be premature at the present time and might jeopardise the still fragile economic recovery, notably in the export sector. We are also of the opinion that we still have sufficient leeway to counter any increased price pressures in good time and that price stability is currently not threatened. The National Bank must be ready and willing to react to changes in the world economy. At the moment, we see mainly two risks which might compel us to reassess the situation and to adjust our monetary policy course. For one thing, the economic recovery in Europe might be delayed somewhat. For another, the Swiss franc could again come under upward pressure.

The average annual increase in the HICP since the launch of the euro has been very close to 2%, despite the sizeable adverse price shocks during this period. Moreover, long-term inflation expectations have been stable and well anchored at levels broadly consistent with the definition of price stability, as shown by the evidence coming from surveys or from indicators derived from index-linked bonds. The 318 million citizens of the euro area believe that price stability is here to stay. This is a considerable achievement that could not be taken for granted a few years ago. And the Governing Council of the ECB can claim credit for it. Concluding remarks But monetary policy is constantly confronted with new challenges and, certainly, developments since this summer (winter in this hemisphere, of course) indicate that we are not currently short of such challenges. At the beginning of July, the ECB Governing Council pointed out the risk of a potential abrupt shift in market sentiment. This risk materialised in August, although through somewhat unexpected channels. Growing default rates in the US market for subprime mortgages resulted in a loss of confidence in the valuation of structured  7  Papademos, L. (2006): “The role of money in the conduct of monetary policy”. Speech at the 4th ECB Central Banking Conference “The role of Money: money and monetary policy in the 21st century”. 6  BIS Review 132/2007  credit instruments and the disruption of the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market.
I also commend the Bank for adopting a “Whistle-blowing” policy to help ensure professional conduct is adhered to at all times. These measures, Mr Managing Director will work to your own Bank’s benefit. The Bank of Zambia stands ready to assist in any way in your quest for Best Practice. BIS Review 36/2007  1  4. Lending rates  On the banking front, we have witnessed Bank lending rates follow the downward trend. Mr Managing Director, these are positive indicators. I am aware that the perennial complaint from our local business houses has been the prohibitive interest rates charged by banks on credit facilities. There is need to continue work on reducing lending rates further as the current levels are still unbearable by most of our upcoming entrepreneurs. In certain fora, Mr Managing Director, the borrowing culture of Zambians has been heavily criticized. It is said that Zambians borrow with no intention of paying back. It is one of the reasons the Bank of Zambia is taking seriously the matter of the Credit Reference Bureau being operational as soon as possible. The Bank of Zambia is keen to ensure this negative perception is eradicated. 5. Banking services to the unbanked  Mr Managing Director, late last year Bank of Zambia launched the findings of the FISCOPE SURVEY, a survey which revealed that 68% of Zambian have no access to banking services.

2  BIS Review 130/2010  models, 3 principal component methods 4 or models where one estimates a flexible-price output gap. 5 Resource utilisation can also be measured by the employment rate, unemployment and other measures. I will return to a number of these measures later. What has happened to GDP in connection with the crisis? During the years prior to the financial crisis, productivity growth in Sweden was rapid. At earlier conferences here in Saltsjöbaden, I have pointed to possible causes of the rapid growth in productivity. 6 Examples of structural causes are deregulation of product markets, increased competition through globalisation, increased use of information technology or – the theme of this year’s conference – a rising level of education and a changed work structure. However, productivity also varies over the business cycle. In June 2007 – before the financial crisis began – our assessment was that productivity growth would be lower in the coming years. But we did not foresee that productivity would fall as heavily as it did. In June 2007, we were assuming that productivity would increase by a total of around 5 per cent during the years 2008 and 2009. Instead, it fell by around 5 per cent. The main reason for this fall was an exceptionally steep decline in demand. GDP fell by a total of 5.5 per cent during the years 2008 and 2009, instead of increasing by an almost equivalent percentage, as predicted.
•  To avoid possible issues related to a preferred creditor status, securities bought under the OMT will accept the same treatment (pari pasu) as purchases by private or other creditors, in accordance with the terms of such bonds. This ensures that any interventions via the OMT do not impinge on the status of private investors. The aim of the programme is to accompany countries and their sovereign to regain stable access to capital markets. •  The programme focuses mainly on the shorter end of the yield curve and in particular on sovereign bonds with a maturity between one and three years. Steering short-term market rates falls squarely into the realm of monetary policy. The interventions address disorderly market conditions and are aimed at reducing excessive market volatility. •  The Governing Council will monitor the conditions for interventions based on a large set of indicators and will assess their effectiveness to decide on the continuation of interventions. I am convinced that the new elements in sum make the OMT a much better programme than the SMP previously was. This new programme is a clear example of how far the ECB fulfils contemporaneously the role as a stability guardian and as crisis manager. By guarding the stability of the euro in the entire euro area and countering redenomination risks, the ECB plays a central role in managing expectations in the crisis. A question remains: What will be the role of central banks after the crisis?

Although it helped understanding the potential risks and developments during the crisis, it did not serve to identify the imminence and the depth of the global financial crisis. 7  In Greece it were public finances that placed a burden on the domestic banks. In a later stage, due to the deteriorating valuations of Greek sovereign bonds, financing of the government become more difficult due to impaired bank balance sheets. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  of the list of eligible collateral, and outright purchases of covered bonds and debt securities through the Securities Markets Programme. The two long-term refinancing operations (LTROs) with a maturity of three years implemented in December 2011 and February 2012 allowed banks to satisfy their additional liquidity needs. They relaxed banks’ funding constraints and – owing to their long maturity – addressed impairments in the monetary policy transmission mechanism to longer rates. Beyond the direct effect of averting a major credit crunch, the full effects of the three-year operations will unfold over time and may be gauged only as time proceeds due to the usual lags in monetary policy. The Securities Markets Programme was initiated back in May 2010 and offered necessary support to the monetary transmission but did not address the incentives for governments to engage in the necessary reforms and to rebalance their public finances. While the SMP counts for a significant share of the ECB’s balance sheet, it did not stabilise the situation in a sustainable way.
What we don’t know is what the shape or timescale of the recovery will be. It’s going to be some time before we have a clearer view of the effects on other industries, including autos, higher education, manufacturing, and professional services. Our Response Despite this extraordinary uncertainty, at the Federal Reserve we worked quickly to put measures in place to support the economy and set the foundation for a strong recovery. During the first half of March, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) brought the target range for the federal funds rate to near zero.1 The FOMC has indicated that it expects to keep interest rates at this level until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.2 Bringing interest rates down to near zero serves two purposes. First, low interest rates make it easier for households and businesses to meet their borrowing needs. Second, they foster broader financial conditions that will help promote the rebound in spending and investment needed to return the economy to full strength. The New York Fed The New York Fed has important and unique responsibilities in supporting liquid and wellfunctioning financial markets. Working alongside our colleagues in the Federal Reserve and other agencies, we are taking rapid and significant actions to supply liquidity and to stabilize critical parts of our financial system.

John C Williams: The economy in the time of coronavirus Remarks (via videoconference) by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce, and CenterState CEO, 21 May 2020. * * * As prepared for delivery  Introduction It’s a pleasure to be able to join you all from my apartment in Manhattan. I sincerely look forward to the day when we can again meet in person. In a short period, our lives have changed in unimaginable ways: things that we took for granted— like eating at a restaurant, or going to a movie—are no longer possible in many places. For the first time in our lifetimes, governments around the world have had to take the extraordinary action of shutting their economies down. Those workers who continue to deliver essential services face very real risks, and my deep gratitude is with all those working in hospitals, law enforcement, transportation, and grocery stores. All essential workers have the thanks of everyone at the New York Fed. What started as a healthcare crisis has had profound consequences for the U.S. and global economies. We all know the incredible strain that New York City has been under, with numerous patients still being diagnosed with COVID-19 on a daily basis. But Upstate New York has also been deeply affected—not just by the spread of the virus, but also by the profound economic fallout.
Most incoming banks have indicated Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands or France as their new main location in the euro area. This pattern also seems to apply to the relocation of activities beyond banking. Public statements and market intelligence suggest that a sizeable fraction of asset management firms and insurance companies that are relocating activities from the United Kingdom as a result of Brexit have moved to either Ireland or Luxembourg. And speaking here in Amsterdam, I should note that the Netherlands is attracting a substantial amount of trading platforms, exchanges and fintech companies. The persistence of such dynamics, and the emergence of a clearly multi-centric euro area financial system, could raise a number of challenges. In particular, without further progress on banking and capital markets union, a more fragmented financial structure could affect the ability of investors and companies from a country experiencing a negative shock to access investment and funding opportunities in unaffected countries (private risk-sharing). It could also create regulatory and supervisory challenges: domestic capital markets within the EU are currently subject to national rules and supervision; the differences in regimes could further inhibit the integration of markets and perhaps incentivise regulatory arbitrage. Brexit and the need for renewed momentum on the capital markets union and banking union Indeed, from a global standpoint, European capital markets are too small and fragmented. The goal of the capital markets union (or CMU) is to develop an ecosystem that will allow the development of strong European financial markets and intermediaries which are able to compete internationally.

For other types of financial activities, no specific regime for accessing EU markets has been established. This is not unusual: most if not all countries place some restrictions on the types of financial services that can be provided across their borders. There may be good reasons for these restrictions, such as consumer protection or financial stability considerations. In the case of the EU, certain bank lending and deposit-taking activities are not covered by the so-called 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  third-country regimes and so will no longer be able to be provided from the United Kingdom, but will need to be provided from within the EU. This – together with the fact that equivalence cannot be taken for granted – is why many banks have chosen to relocate activities to the EU27, and have been engaged in very detailed discussions with the ECB and other authorities to obtain agreement on their plans. The ECB expects banks to build up their capabilities in EU27 countries and to implement the agreed relocation plans within the previously agreed timelines. The risks of financial fragmentation Regulatory drivers – and in particular the end of passporting rights for certain UK-based activities – are already having an effect on the geography of financial centres in the euro area. According to preliminary evidence, a small number of financial hubs appear to be emerging as a result of the relocation – or plans for relocation – of certain activities.
With the relatively long time horizon that has been chosen, monetary policy can contribute to stable developments in output and employment. However, situations may arise where more than two years or less than two years is required to attain the inflation target. This will depend on what disturbances the economy is exposed to. Norges Bank will communicate such a change in the time horizon. 4. Monetary policy and competitiveness  Monetary policy cannot be used to influence the size of the internationally exposed sector over time. This is primarily determined by wage and income formation, fiscal policy, including the use of petroleum revenues over the government budget and the adaptability and efficiency of the economy. 8  BIS Review 49/2002  The new monetary policy mandate is linked to the new fiscal policy guideline. When the new guidelines were adopted in March 2001, Norges Bank pointed out that, in isolation, a gradual phasing in of petroleum revenues could contribute to deteriorating conditions for the internationally exposed sector. Norway’s fiscal policy will stimulate demand in the public and sheltered sectors. Consequently, internationally exposed industries may have difficulties recruiting labour and may face higher labour costs. The contest for labour may result in a deterioration in competitiveness internationally.

2  To help on the supply side the Bank has developed an education outreach strategy with three components: 1. econoME: which includes free lesson plans and supporting materials for teachers to use in their classrooms; 2. Bank Ambassadors: colleagues below the director level at the Bank who volunteer to visit schools across the country to explain the Bank of England’s role; and 3. School visits by senior Bank and policy committee members: to spark young people’s interest in economics and to inspire them to pursue a career in related fields. Let me say a bit more about why we are doing this. 1  May 2017 survey conducted by ING and the Economics Network, available at: https://www.economicsnetwork.ac.uk/research/understandingecon 2 See Haldane, A “Everyday Economics”, Birmingham 2017 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2  The first objective is to help young people understand the economy and to make better informed personal financial decisions. The econoME lessons are designed for 11-16 year olds and cover: -  The economic factors that influence personal decisions;  -  How to make informed decisions; and  -  How such decisions collectively influence the economy. An array of econoME resources, designed in close collaboration with teachers and education specialists, support these classes. The materials include lesson plans, presentations, videos, activities and real life case studies. And they can be used by non-specialists with no prior economics training.
The Norwegian authorities have been successful in ensuring that the bulk of the petroleum wealth benefits Norwegian society as a whole. Both the state’s ownership interests through the State’s Direct Financial Interest in petroleum activities (SDFI) and the tax system have been important. The companies that extract oil earn a reasonable return on their investments and have incentives to invest, but the economic rent has essentially accrued to the general public. The authorities have so far also been successful in smoothing spending of petroleum revenues over time. This is important for several reasons. First, it is misleading to look upon the cash flow from  12  BIS Review 28/2007  petroleum activities as income. The appropriate economic perspective is to see the transfer of cash flow to foreign investments as a way of transferring capital from one account to another – from petroleum to foreign securities. By doing so, we diversify risk. Second, the size of the cash flow from petroleum activities varies. If petroleum revenues were to be spent as they accrue, this would lead to wide fluctuations in demand in the Norwegian economy. Third, petroleum revenue spending has an impact on competitiveness in Norwegian business and industry. A high level and substantial variations in petroleum revenue spending would have a negative impact on internationally exposed industries. The establishment of the Government Pension Fund – Global and the spending guidelines for petroleum revenues are part of the response to these challenges.

I hope the sessions ahead will challenge your thinking and present you with many new ideas and perspectives on the prospects of an expanded ASEAN-EU relationship. 2/2
Barbro Wickman-Parak: Is there a typical business cycle? Speech by Ms Barbro Wickman-Parak, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Nordea, Stockholm, 7 October 2008. *  *  *  The expression “economic downturn” is often used in the media and general debate, but there appears to be some confusion as to what the term actually means. Sometimes the term is used to describe generally less prosperous times, on other occasions it is avoided and people talk instead of a recession. The academic definition focuses instead on deviations from a long-term trend. 1 One imagines that GDP has a natural long-term equilibrium level that shows a growth trend over time and in periods when the economy is below the trend we have a recession and in periods above the trend we have a boom. This sounds simple, but in practice many questions remain. Many of the shocks that affect the economy can for instance be lasting and in this case they affect the long-term equilibrium level. As the long-term equilibrium level is not an observable variable, it is difficult to know in practice what point in the economic cycle the economy is currently at. There are patterns that often recur in economic cycles and which are therefore studied closely by forecasters. For instance, it is normal to have an over-investment in housing and for commodity prices to rise during an economic boom, just as in the current cycle.

But income diversification has become more important, with banks increasingly having to develop their fee-generating businesses to be more profitable. We are seeing this particularly in the move by a number of banks into wealth management, such as securities, unit trusts, insurance, pensions and private banking. A further opportunity for business diversification for the medium-size banks will come from the ability to branch into Mainland following the relaxation of the asset size criterion under CEPA. The eight banks that will benefit from this would, according to our calculations, have the scope to open a total of as many as 20 branches in the Mainland over the next three years. This would be a significant addition to the 40 or so branches that banks from Hong Kong already have on the Mainland. We should certainly not regard Mainland access as a panacea, and the benefits will take time to come through. But the important point is that the medium-size banks now have an alternative avenue to grow their business outside the Hong Kong market. Indeed, more generally, banks in Hong Kong will benefit from the increasing financial and economic integration with the Mainland. In the syndicated loan market, we can see this in the growing trend towards Mainland-linked borrowers. One development of this trend is likely to be the growth of the syndicated loan market in RMB. This should create opportunities for foreign as well as domestic banks within the Mainland. Let me summarise the argument I have been making.