samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
While the leu was strengthening, up until the summer of 2007, the issue of adopting the euro was not on the agenda of economic agents. The crisis highlighted the fact that the leu was overappreciated and the market made the necessary correction. Over a relatively short period – from July 2007 to date – the leu weakened by around 35 percent. Over the same period, the prospects of economic growth changed dramatically: from an almost 9.4 percent growth rate in 2008 Q3 to a most likely significant decline in 2009 Q1. The monetary and fiscal policies will be resorted to with a view to adjusting to the new environment. In face of the crisis, the relatively large stock of private foreign debt and the increased market volatility made some economic agents believe that the early adoption of the euro could supersede the need for economic policy adjustments. Yet this is not a viable option, as adopting the euro prior to having achieved the main stages of convergence with the EU might pose serious threats in the future. The adoption of the euro today would mean to relinquish monetary policy before having ensured convergence sustainability, namely before removing all the imbalances we are facing today. The outcome would consist in monetary policy being designed by the European Central Bank (ECB). But the ECB policy might prove inadequate from the standpoint of the specific problems facing the Romanian economy.

The risk might occur that, in face of relatively high volatility of output and inflation, we run out of instruments to tackle the issue. I consider this as a strong enough reason not to adopt the euro prior to eliminating all major imbalances in the economy and before having made enough progress on the path to achieving convergence. We stand committed to implement the pre-announced calendar of the euro adoption. We intend to join ERM II on 1 January 2012. After the minimum two-year stay in this mechanism, the joint decision on entering the euro area will be made in 2014 and (likely to) become effective as of 1 January 2015. Mention should be made that this is the calendar considered by most rating agencies and foreign investors, hence any large deviation (postponement) from this calendar would be negatively perceived and penalised accordingly. * * * I believe there will also be other lessons for countries to learn from the current financial crisis. They will learn the manner in which a banking system can be restructured so as to cope with a global financial crisis, particularly what is the impact of a so-called "bad bank" on real life. I trust countries will learn that central banks' resort to unconventional instruments bears certain costs. Yet, regardless of the number of lessons learned, the experience of financial crises indicates that the social memory of crises is of short duration and that the possibility of repeating the same mistakes should never be ruled out.
Different authorities have obtained different results. The Swedish Ministry of Finance (2011) has made what is so far the most thorough and detailed estimate for long-run sustainable unemployment, and concludes that the rate is 5 per cent. The estimate is made in two stages. In the first stage, a long-run sustainable rate of unemployment is estimated for the year 2006, the year before the government began its reforms in the labour market area. This estimate results in a long-run sustainable rate of unemployment of 6.6 per cent. In the second stage, the effects of demographical changes in the labour force are estimated, as well as the effects of an unchanged ceiling for the unemployment benefit and structural reforms. This results in a reduction of the long-run sustainable rate of unemployment of 1.6 percentage points, to 5 per cent (Ministry of Finance 2011, Table 1.1). The National Institute of Economic Research (2012) estimates a timedependent equilibrium unemployment rate that reaches 6 per cent in 2020, so 6 per cent could be regarded as the Institute’s estimate of long-run sustainable unemployment. An average of the Ministry of Finance’s and the National Institute of Economic Research’s estimates would then be 5.5 per cent, way below the current rate of unemployment.

Minouche brings immense international, managerial and economic experience from a career that has spanned academia, the public service and the IMF. She will help lead the Bank’s efforts to reshape core markets and the Bank’s relationship to them. Second, through its intellectual leadership and international relationships, the Bank can help complete the G20’s ambitious programme of financial reform including building resilient financial institutions, ending too big to fail, making derivative markets safer and transforming shadow banking to market based finance. Sir Jon Cunliffe, one of the original architects of the Financial Stability Board, is leading this effort. The job is too big for one person and requires a well-resourced and focused international strategy that draws on all areas of the Bank. That is why we are pooling our prudential policy teams in a single directorate and bringing together our international teams to increase insight and impact. By acting as One Bank we can increase our international impact and ensure that the UK’s financial sector can be both a global good and a national asset. Building on the success of the past 25 years On the face of it the recent enlargement in the Bank’s responsibilities represents a return to the broader role of the Bank of the past. If there are some similarities in roles, how we will discharge them will be fundamentally different.
I am glad to say, looking back on 10 years as chief executive, the Hong Kong banking community can take pride in honouring its commitments and deserving society’s trust. Conclusion 52. Ladies and gentlemen, we at the HKMA – and all of you in the banking industry – have been through a great deal in the last 10 years. I have mentioned just a few of our many challenges, and our achievements. 53. As I said at the start, Hong Kong’s monetary and financial system is probably as secure as it has ever been – even though the infrastructure and markets are far more complex than ever. The Hong Kong banking industry is world-class in terms of its skills and people, in its dedication to inclusion, its preparation for technological change, and its awareness of the need for integrity and values. 54. But we must all be very clear that maintaining the quality of the industry is a never-ending task. Looking back, I am proud of what we have done collectively – but I know there will be much more to do in future. 55. Hong Kong at the moment is going through some troubles. But experience and history show us that Hong Kong overcomes problems, pulls together and moves on to the next stage of its development and success. I know that the banking industry will make a major contribution to that process. 56. The opportunities for our banking sector are opportunities for the whole of Hong Kong.

Norman T L Chan: Keynote speech - HKAB & HKIB Distinguished Speaker Luncheon Keynote speech by Mr Norman T L Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the HKAB & HKIB Distinguished Speaker Luncheon, Hong Kong, 26 September 2019. * * * Mary (Huen), Patrick (Fung), distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen,  Introduction 1. I have been Chief Executive of the HKMA for 10 years. This will be the last time I speak to you in my official capacity. 2. I would like to take this opportunity to look back at what all of us here have accomplished during those 10 years. 3. When I say “all of us”, I do mean everyone represented here today. 4. Under conventional wisdom, our relationship is not designed to be friendly or close. We all know that there is potentially going to be some sort of friction between the regulator and regulatees. If there were no friction, at least one of the two sides would not be doing their job properly. 5. But if we succeed in working together, we accomplish something of vital importance. We ensure that Hong Kong can fully trust the financial services that you provide and which keep our economy going. 6. Today, I want to look back over the last 10 years and see how well we have all done.
As Robert Swan, the English polar explorer and environmental leader once said, "The greatest threat to our planet is the belief that someone else will save it." Let us play our part in taking proactive steps to manage climate risk before there is nothing left to manage. I wish you all a fruitful outcome and a successful journey towards building your business resilience against the impacts of climate change. Thank you and Assalamu'alaikum. About GVC Programme: The GVC programme is an initiative by Bank Negara Malaysia together with the GVC strategic partners, which was announced at the COP-27 conference in Egypt in conjunction with Finance Day on 9 November 2022. The programme is envisaged to help SMEs begin their journey in sustainability reporting, to tackle climate change and reduce the nation's carbon footprint. This programme incentivises and assists Malaysian SMEs in implementing impactful, long-term change to green their operations and benefit from the technical advisories and software tools from services provider partners and climate transition financing from the Low Carbon Transition Facility (LCTF)  2/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  by Bank Negara Malaysia. Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing our planet, and GVC strategic partners remain committed to doing its part in addressing this global crisis. 1 Source: United Nation Climate Action 2 Source: Global Turning Point Report 2022, Deloitte Center for Sustainable Progress 3 MSME comprise 37.4% share of 2021 GDP, source: Department of Statistic Malaysia.

It is evident that businesses must transition to be sustainable to keep pace with the global race towards net zero. As an exporting nation, Malaysia must also prepare for tightening of climate-related regulations that may be imposed by our trading partners. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that form 37.4% of Malaysia's economy3 are the most susceptible. According to report findings by the Sustainable Finance Institute Asia 2022, SMEs stand to lose RM292 billion in revenue due to non-ESG compliance4. The silver lining behind these adversities is the immense growth opportunities. Studies have shown that sustainability investments reward businesses through higher premiums 5 , better brand value, and lower operating expenses6. Without the necessary support, the ambition to achieve net zero would be a tall order for SMEs, which lack funding and knowledge for meaningful transition. In this regard, the Bank launched the RM2 billion Low-Carbon Transition Facility (LCTF) in February 2022 to fund SMEs' working capital or capital expenditures related to low-carbon practices at an affordable rate. Beyond that, other facilities such as the High Tech and Green Facility and SME Automation and Digitalisation Facility are also available for  1/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  SMEs. In this respect, it is important to note that financing by the financial sector has returned to the pre-pandemic level with funds by BNM only constituting less than 10% of the total financing. We acknowledge that technical know-how is equally crucial for successful transformation.
Barbro Wickman-Parak: “Translating” forecasts into repo-rate decisions – no easy task Speech by Ms Barbro Wickman-Parak, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a meeting with Nordea Markets, Stockholm, 24 May 2011. *  *  *  I would like to thank Hans Dillén for his help with this speech and Lina Majtorp for her help with the illustrations. My speech here today is about making forecasts. In order to be able to conduct a wellbalanced monetary policy we need to make good forecasts, which in turn requires good models. Models cannot of course capture everything, so the forecasts that the Riksbank presents are the result of a structured interaction between models and assessments. Further assessments are then made when the time comes to make a repo-rate decision. Not even the best forecasts can simply be “translated” into a repo-rate decision. This is always a difficult process, but it becomes even more difficult when the economy is subject to major disruptions such as the financial crisis that hit in the autumn of 2008. The Riksbank, and most other analysts, made significant forecasting errors at that time. The basic problem was that our models do not capture a number of the financial links that played a role during the crisis, and the risks associated with these links were therefore underestimated. I think that we all agree that we need to increase our understanding of the various financial links that affect the Swedish economy.

The development of interest rates abroad and the krona exchange rate Let me begin with the forecast for economic activity abroad, which I think in some respects has been given too much significance in the discussion of our forecasts for, for example, the krona exchange rate. As I see it, changes in interest rates abroad relative to Swedish interest rates say more about the current exchange rate for the krona than about the future development of the krona. The fact that interest rates increased more in Sweden than in the euro area in the first half of 2010 is thus an explanation of why the krona strengthened against the euro in the same period, but high Swedish interest rates relative to those in the euro area will not necessarily lead to the krona strengthening in the period ahead.8 My belief that too much importance has been attached to forecasts of policy rates abroad does not mean that financial prices abroad are of no interest. On the contrary, developments in 2010 illustrate that long-term Swedish rates often appear to be strongly affected by developments abroad, and especially in the United States, without these shifts being motivated by changes in economic activity in Sweden. We need to improve our understanding of international financial links of this kind. Can assessments stop short at the end of the forecast horizon?
And finally, I will take a brief look at digital central bank money for the general public, a subject currently generating a lot of debate, and will outline why there is no need for it if the system for cashless retail payments is efficient and innovative. The potential of DLT for the FMI So let me begin with the potential that DLT has to offer for the FMI. The FMI is the bedrock of our financial system, facilitating the reliable transfer of securities and money between buyers and sellers. The slide 2 shows a simplified FMI process chain for the settlement of a securities transaction. Transactions are first made via a trading platform, for instance a security is bought on the Swiss Exchange. This purchase is then cleared and settled. Security and money are simultaneously transferred between buyer and seller. In Switzerland, this takes place via the securities settlement system SECOM and the payment system Swiss Interbank Clearing, or SIC for short. It is entirely possible that distributed ledger technology could take hold in various fields. I would like to look here at two possible areas of application: securities settlement and crossborder payments. Page 3/8  One of DLT’s key characteristics is that it makes verified information available to a large number of parties simultaneously. It is therefore particularly appealing in the case of complex processes where coordination is required across a whole range of participants.

19 To assist more borrowers, CCS is working on expanding its services. It will offer a centralised repayment solution to those who have accumulated substantial unsecured debts above their annual incomes. Under this new repayment solution, borrowers will not have to approach multiple creditor banks to negotiate how to reduce their debts. Instead, CCS will coordinate across all of a borrower’s creditor banks, and work out a centralised repayment plan. This centralised repayment plan will take holistic account of the borrower’s income, expenditure needs, and loan obligations. All the leading retail banks have agreed to come on-board CCS’ centralised repayment solution by the first quarter of next year. Thrust three: empower individuals to take charge through financial education 20 The third thrust is to reach out to more Singaporeans to empower them with the knowledge and skills to better manage their finances, and especially to avoid excessive borrowing. (a)  2  An integrated consumer education campaign, that explains the problems that result when debts get too high, will be launched by MoneySENSE next year. The  The number of reported unlicensed moneylending and related harassment cases has declined 23% from 10,840 cases in 2012 to 8,306 in 2013. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  campaign will use multiple media channels to reach out to different segments of Singaporeans. (b)  We will reach out to Singaporeans where they work and live.
To complement the institutional framework, a Financial Intelligence Analysis Unit was established to strengthen the anti-money laundering regime and to combat the financing of terrorism. As part of the authorities’ efforts to create a reputable financial centre, in late 2002 the IMF / World Bank were requested to conduct a Financial Sector Assessment Programme (FSAP). The assessment concluded that Malta’s financial system appeared to be healthy and well supervised, with a comprehensive legal framework and strong adherence to most international standards and codes. At the same time, the report also noted that, mainly because of the predominance of two large banks, the system was highly concentrated and exposed to the country’s narrow economic base. Malta as an international financial centre EU membership in 2004 proved to be an important catalyst in the further development of the financial services industry. Malta now benefits from the greater credibility conferred by EUcompliant legislation and access to passporting rights in the vast European market, which allows licensed financial institutions to exploit previously unavailable avenues for growth. Malta has also capitalized on its other strengths. Its small size facilitates access to the single regulator, allowing for a swift licensing process and the possibility of custom-made solutions. The financial services industry is supported by a modern telecommunications infrastructure and a plentiful supply of experienced, English-speaking tax professionals, legal and accounting firms and other service providers. Labour and rental costs are competitive, while Malta’s geographical position enables it to serve as a finance hub in the Mediterranean region.

A major factor driving the slowdown is a dramatic decline in the growth rate of “total factor productivity,” or TFP, a measure of innovation and technological change.3 As Bob Gordon has taught us, U.S. productivity growth tends to cycle between periods of high growth in decades following fundamental breakthroughs in science and technology, and relatively fallow periods of steady, incremental improvements. All the evidence indicates that we are in one of the latter periods of “normal” productivity growth of 1 - 1.5 percent per year, and that things will likely stay that way until the next scientific or technological revolution.4  R-star Descends These global shifts in demographics and productivity have two important implications for the future of our economies and for monetary policy. First, slower population and productivity growth translate directly into slower trend economic growth. Second, these trends have contributed to dramatic declines in the longer-term normal or “neutral” real rate of interest, or r-star. Slower trend growth reduces the demand for investment, while longer life expectancy tends to increase household saving.5 This combination of lower demand for and higher supply of savings, along with other factors, has pushed down r-star. With open capital markets, these global changes in supply and demand affect r-star globally. The evidence of a sizable decline in r-star across economies is compelling.
It is also worth noting that other changes are under way in the markets as well as EMU. The most notable is the advances in technology which have enabled electronic trading to start to challenge traditional open outcry. In response, open outcry exchanges are looking to automate and streamline their trading through technology to reduce costs. And it would seem that the exchange-traded futures industry is coming under some pressure from the OTC derivatives market, which appears to be expanding at a more rapid pace. All of these changes will run in parallel with the introduction of the euro, and as far as competition is concerned, success in those areas may well dominate the euro factor. But I said earlier that the outcome of these competitive skirmishes cannot be simply determined in advance by an analysis of existing competitive advantages. It will depend on the efforts of the different players and on the extent to which they are well prepared in advance. Here I found your own survey rather depressing. The assessment was that relatively few market participants in London had made serious preparations for EMU, and seemed unsure of how to proceed. Only 6 per cent of brokers and own account traders had made contingency plans for the introduction of EMU. But this survey was undertaken in April of last year, and I am confident that the responses would be different today.

We have recently asked ourselves why it is that LIFFE has retained its position in the three-month euromark contract and the ten-year Bund contract - Europe’s most active longer-term interest rate contract. And for those of you who like to go home with a reading list, there is an interesting article on the subject of what makes for successful futures contacts in our latest Quarterly Bulletin. (I am sure the restaurants and the bars of the West End will be empty tonight as you sit in your hotel rooms poring over it.) Frankfurt has recently started making inroads into LIFFE’s share of Bund futures business - but the level of activity on LIFFE nonetheless continues to increase. Our assessment is that, in these markets, there is a considerable and long-term advantage inherent in being the first mover. That helped LIFFE to achieve a very broad and international membership, with only 27 per cent of members being UK-based. It has meant that London has an established skill base and good support functions in law and accountancy. Also a good telecommunications system - though fewer of those old telephone boxes, which may be a problem for me at super-SIB. London also has a strong clearing function and we should not forget the advantage of the English language, which is increasingly the lingua franca of the European Union, and I believe that even some Americans can now speak a kind of pidgin version which allows them to be understood. But EMU will create change. This raises three interesting questions.