samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Indeed, these factors have led us to revise down our economic forecasts for this year and next, and to significantly raise our inflation projections for this year. 12  The banking industry has very limited direct exposure to Russia and Ukraine, but the effects may be significant. The war may also have an impact on its operating risks, in light of the potential growth of cyber attacks. In view of these risks, our latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) includes simulations of the impact of higher interest rates and energy costs on the economic and financial position of Spanish businesses and households and the different tiers of general government. It also includes stress tests in different stressed scenarios, to assess the potential impact of largescale materialisation of some of the risks facing the Spanish banking industry. A potential interest rate rise could increase the percentage of firms under financial pressure. Specifically, within corporate bank financing, short-term and floating-rate loans predominate, so changes in interest rates pass through relatively swiftly. Under a scenario consistent with our latest projections, in which interest rates rise in line with market expectations, firms’ interest expenses as a percentage of gross operating surplus begin to increase from 2023, standing 1 pp above their 2021 level at end-2024.

Risk assessment We see the risks to the economic outlook as broadly balanced. Economic activity could outperform our expectations if consumers become more confident and save less than currently expected. A faster improvement in the pandemic situation could also lead to a stronger expansion than currently envisaged. If supply bottlenecks last longer and feed through into higher than anticipated wage rises, price pressures could be more persistent. At the same time, the economic outlook could deteriorate if the pandemic worsens, which could delay the further reopening of the economy, or if supply shortages turn out to be more persistent than currently expected and hold back production. Financial and monetary conditions The recovery of growth and inflation still depends on favourable financing conditions for all sectors of the economy. Market interest rates have eased over the summer, but reversed recently. Overall, financing conditions for the economy remain favourable. 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Bank lending rates for firms and households are at historically low levels. Lending to households is holding up, especially for house purchases. The somewhat slower growth of lending to firms is mainly due to the fact that firms are still well funded, because they borrowed heavily in the first wave of the pandemic. They have high cash holdings and are increasingly retaining earnings, which reduces the need for external funding. For larger firms, issuing bonds is an attractive alternative to bank loans. Solid bank balance sheets continue to ensure that sufficient credit is available.
Especially important with regard to our topic is the distinction between central bank money on the one hand and commercial bank money – i.e. deposits with commercial banks – on the other. The two differ in terms of characteristics and risks, as well as in the way they are created. Central bank money comprises banknotes in circulation and the sight deposits held by commercial banks at the central bank. 2 Both are legal tender, which means that no restriction may be imposed on their acceptance. 3 Central bank money, like all nominally denominated money, is subject to the risk of inflation, in other words to the risk of losing in value as a result of rising prices for goods and services. Apart from this, however, central bank money is practically risk-free. 4 In Switzerland, central bank money is created by the Swiss National Bank. Whenever, for example, the SNB purchases foreign currency or Swiss franc denominated securities from a commercial bank, it credits the amount paid to the sight deposit account of the bank concerned in Swiss francs. If the SNB wants to reduce the amount of central bank money, also known as the monetary base, it can conduct transactions in the opposite direction. It then sells foreign currency or Swiss franc denominated securities to banks and charges the corresponding amount to their sight deposit accounts. The SNB is thus in a position to either increase or decrease the monetary base in accordance with its monetary policy goals.

However, fiscal performance in 2009 was weak, mainly due to the global economic crisis, which reduced domestic revenues. Despite this, Government remained within the programmed domestic financing for the year. 1  December-2009 inflation revised to 12.0% in the Budget Speech for 2010 presented to Parliament on October 9, 2009. BIS Review 53/2010  1  Distinguished Members, the financial sector has remained resilient despite the effects of the recent global financial crisis. Currently, the Zambian financial sector is characterized by high liquidity levels, reflecting tighter lending standards in the wake of the lessons from the global financial crisis leading to marked decline in private sector lending. As a result, the demand for the relatively risk free Government securities has increased causing a decline in yield rates on Government securities. The decline in Government securities yield rates and relatively low inflation experienced since the beginning of the year should contribute to a decline in banks lending rates and thus stimulate borrowing by the private sector. I am aware that the high interest rates in the country pose a very big challenge for our manufacturers to borrow for recapitalisation and expansion of their businesses. Access to finance is essential for the economy to grow and therefore it is necessary that we find ways that could reduce the cost of borrowing to allow key sectors to expand. Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish to reiterate that the economic fundamentals point to a reduction in lending rates.
Villy Bergström: The role of the Riksbank in Swedish society  Speech by Mr Villy Bergström, Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, at Fristående Sparbankers Förbundsstömma, held in Stenungssund, on 22 May 2000. *  *  *  In my speech today I would like to concentrate on the role of the Riksbank in Swedish society. I am going to begin by trying to clarify the sometimes exaggerated idea about the meaning of the Riksbank having an independent position in relation to our democratically elected representatives. Later in my speech, I will take up issues relating to the Riksbank’s role in reducing the risk for financial crises and the important function of the bank system. The duties of the Riksbank The Riksbank is an authority subject to the Riksdag. The areas of responsibility that have been delegated to us in one way or another involve ensuring that our money plays its part well in society. In order for a modern economy to function efficiently, there must be access to money that is accepted by everyone as a means of payment. It must also be possible to make payments for the enormous flows of goods and services in a developed economy in a secure and efficient way. Last but not least, it is important that the country’s currency functions as a store of value, a demand that is met if inflation is low and predictable. Stable prices reduce uncertainty when agreements about future payments are to be concluded, for instance pay agreements.

Chart: Prices for European CO2 emission allowances Climate policy measures, such as higher carbon taxes, will also affect price and demand developments. Prices for European CO2 emission allowances have increased by close to 500 percent over the past two years. This has pulled up coal and gas prices in Europe and has also contributed to higher electricity prices in Norway. Even though the impact of climate change on aggregated economic variables will not necessarily be substantial in the next few years, the situation for individual businesses might be different. Norwegian firms will have to be prepared for the introduction of new climate mitigation measures and new, more environmentally friendly technology. Public attitudes and consumer demand patterns are also changing. Many of Norges Bank’s Regional Network contacts report that they are being affected by the increased focus on climate and sustainability.2 Statutory emission limits and customer demands are steering investment and production methods in a greener direction. A number of retail trade contacts reported that sales are declining because customers are increasingly focused on sustainability. The trend towards lower meat consumption has, on the other hand, given a boost to aquaculture and fish farming. Chart: Carbon pricing in Norway A number of industries are likely to have to comply with a stricter climate policy, particularly industries with low or zero carbon prices today. Stricter climate policy requirements may also speed up the introduction of new technologies. Some firms will have to undergo major changes, while others may gain competitive advantages.
Richard W Fisher: Monetary policy and an annual Texas economic review Remarks by Mr Richard W Fisher, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, before the Dallas Business Club, Dallas, Texas, 3 December 2014. *  *  *  The charts can be found at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ website The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. Thank you, Alden [McCall]. I feel right at home in a room full of MBAs. As many of you know, I am not a PhD economist like the majority of my colleagues sitting on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). I admire my colleagues tremendously for their intellectual capacity and their well-trained insights into the dismal science of economics and the arcana of monetary policy, but I am proud of just being an MBA. I was privileged to attend all those schools Alden mentioned: the Naval Academy, Harvard and Oxford. But I feel that the MBA program at Stanford Business School prepared me best for my career as a banker, a money market operator, and for the past decade, a policymaker at the Federal Reserve. (Though plebe year at Annapolis probably best equipped me for the sleep deprivation and the pressure we operated under during the financial crisis). So Alden, I begin with a tip of the hat to the MBAs you have assembled this evening.

I am going to talk about Texas tonight, this being my annual report on the status of the Texas economy. I will walk you through a series of slides that illustrate the strength of the Texas economy, a series of economic records we have set this year, and to provide a balanced view, some of the growing pains that we are encountering. But first, I want to make a comment on monetary policy. Thinking outside the box It strikes me as timely for the Fed to consider implementing one of the possible options under the “normalization principles” the FOMC articulated in September: allowing our security holdings to run off as the bonds in our massive portfolio mature. 1 Before you jump out of your skin at this “radical” thought, let me ask you to consider the following. The 10-year Treasury note has rallied in price and declined in yield to 2.29 percent. German 10-year bunds, the equivalent market-anchoring European security, are trading to yield 0.74 percent; the Japanese 10-year yields 0.42 percent. The spread between the U.S. and the German sovereign yields is slightly narrower than it was at the end of third quarter 2014, but it remains historically large and attractive for investors. 2 Hold that thought.
(I'm delighted to note, however, that manufacturing output picked up modestly in February - the first monthly increased since August.) For what it's worth, we were not alone in experiencing the earlier decline. Comparable figures show that manufacturing output fell by over 11% in Japan, and by close to 5% in both the US and Germany, while manufacturing employment fell by 6½% in Japan and 7½% in the US - that's to say by more than in this country although it fell by less than 2% in Germany. The frustrating thing is that, with the best will in the world, there was not much that either we at the Bank, or the UK Government, could have done to ward off the pressures on UK manufacturing, which had their origins abroad. That's fairly obvious where we are talking about the global slowdown - with negative overall growth last year of about 2% in Japan (fourth quarter on a year earlier) and close to zero growth in the US and Germany. This compared with growth of just over 1½% in this country - by some margin the highest in G7. We can go to international meetings and encourage the respective authorities there to stimulate their economies, but there is nothing that we can do about it directly ourselves. What we were able to do - given that inflation was marginally below target - was to try to compensate for that external weakness by stimulating domestic demand here in the UK.

This was true in addressing the great financial crisis, designing and implementing policies that improve the world economy and building institutions that deliver peace and prosperity in Europe. But it is also true in all the fields represented today by my fellow recipients. That is why we must be grateful to all places of knowledge, and today to the University of Tel Aviv. Thank you once more, not only for the honour that you are bestowing upon us, but also for your ongoing contribution to our common good. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
On balance I read these labour market indicators as pointing to a further normalisation of the labour market and broadly consistent with our expectations last summer for a modest decline in slack. What could these developments mean for domestic cost pressures? 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Domestic cost pressures As the economy continues to expand and slack diminishes, the resulting pressure on resources would be expected to bid up wages.15 Recently, despite falling unemployment and the MPC’s expectations in the summer, wage growth has moderated from rates around 3¼ % to around 2 ½ % (Chart 12). This could reflect a range of influences, some of which are more relevant to the overall inflation outlook than others. For example, in the past year, there is likely to have been some dampening effect on measured wage growth owing to changes in the composition of the workforce with more younger, less experienced workers entering employment.16 In addition, when measured on an hourly basis, the moderation in wage growth has been less marked, consistent with the fall back in average hours being a normalisation of working patterns. Nonetheless, the slowdown in wage growth gives pause to the inference that the labour market is as tight as would be suggested by the drop in unemployment alone.

I will then turn to financial stability, which is essential for the effectiveness of monetary policy (by preserving its transmission channels). Finally, I will talk about economic stability and the way monetary policy, in combination with fiscal policy, can smooth the business cycle and foster a robust and sustainable recovery from the covid crisis. Clearly, these different aspects are closely intertwined: monetary policy, while pursuing its primary objective of price stability, can affect financial stability; fiscal and monetary policy closely interact with each other, as do monetary and macroprudential policy. But for the sake of clarity I will tackle each concept in turn. I. Price stability To achieve the ECB inflation objective, we are determined to maintain, as long as necessary, a very accommodative monetary stance. We continue to stand ready to adjust all of our instruments, as appropriate, including possibly a lowering of the DFR if needed. And to guarantee the full transmission of this accomodative stance, we pay particular attention to ensuring that both bank and market financing conditions remain favourable for all agents (governments, firms and households). This leads us to monitor a large set of indicators, with a multifaceted and holistic approach. Let me add some comments about the recent increase we have seen in long-term rates, following although to a lesser extent the move in the US. This increase has different causes, and hence calls for different reactions and instruments.
A clear example of this is contained in the conflict between traditional commercial banking and investment banking, which is my subject today. A bank that lends money to a company normally gains access during the credit application process to special information about the company - information that is not publicly available. The bank makes an investment in the information on the company and therefore usually has an information advantage in relation to other banks and outside parties. This  2  BIS Review 47/2004  investment can also mean that the bank can offer the company investment banking services in a more efficient manner. The fact that a company seeking funding in the capital market has access to bank credit is often regarded by the market as a positive signal. It means that a professional agent has analysed the company and found it creditworthy, i.e. been willing to risk his or her own capital in it. The information about the credit functions is a quality signal or a certification. At the same time, opportunities arise to make use of conflicts of interest when a bank functions as both credit-granting institution and adviser or guarantor in new issues. If the prospects for a company that has loans with the bank deteriorate, it may be in the interests of the bank to reduce some of its credit risk by aiding the company with a new share issue. In this way, the bank can pass on some of the credit risk to the shareholders.

In all these tasks I believe that the role of external analysts and researchers can be pivotal In this regard, I see only advantages from making information produced by authorities public to the scientific community. Evaluation of public policies should not be the sole preserve of analysts from policymaking institutions. Data availability paves the way for evaluations by independent researchers with a clear potential for enriching our knowledge on the impact  4  of public policies. This in turn increases the number of cross-checks to ensure more robust results by looking at the same question from different angles. My impression is that the more ambitious we are in this field, the better the assessment by researchers we are going to have. Indeed, it is a fact that countries with more open data typically enjoy larger than average high-quality economic evaluations. That’s why we have created a data laboratory at the Banco de España (BELab) and intend to gradually open up our data to the scientific community. We have started offering the annual financial statements of about one million companies per year, made available thanks to the agreement signed with the Mercantile Register Association (Colegio de Registradores Mercantiles). As part of our medium-term strategic plan, we are currently analysing the legal and technical conditions to broaden the databases disseminated at this laboratory and to ease access to the data. Currently, it is only possible to access the data lab using the “dataroom” located on our premises.
The gist of the response is that, on the basis of economic fundamentals, there is no reason why the Hong Kong dollar should be impacted by changes in the renminbi exchange rate. But things get a little more complicated when market sentiment enters the picture. During the Asian crisis, the market perceived a strong correlation between the Hong Kong dollar and the renminbi. This was partly attributable to misconceptions about the economic - and perhaps the political - relationship between Hong Kong and the mainland, and partly due to the market’s practice of regarding the Hong Kong dollar as a proxy hedge for the renminbi. Over the past year or so, however, the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar have become substantially decoupled in the eyes of the market. This decoupling can be most easily read by comparing the Hong Kong dollar forward spread and the renminbi’s non-deliverable forward exchange rate, which tracked each other very closely until the end of 1998, when they began to diverge. The decoupling suggests that the market has drawn the obvious conclusion from the fact that, since the linked exchange rate was introduced in 1983, the renminbi has depreciated by more than 70%, while, during the same period, the Hong Kong dollar has remained rock solid. And this was confirmed by the calmness with which the market took the raising of the possibility of greater flexibility for the renminbi exchange rate by Premier Zhu.

One such explanation is the low rate of housing construction in recent years, while another is provided by migration to metropolitan areas. The greatest price rises, without comparison, are found precisely in Stockholm, Göteborg and, above all, Malmö. Due to the taxation system and other regulations, we have not experienced the type of market in which households purchase homes as financial investments to then rent them out. It is easier for such markets to develop imbalances and become subject to rapid and heavy price adjustments. However, in the slightly longer term, there is reason to be vigilant. The increase in housing prices and in household debt in relation to income that we have seen over the most recent ten year period is not sustainable in the long term. There is thus a risk that an imbalance of the type I discussed previously will accumulate. At present, we cannot do much about this with monetary policy. We need to have a low interest rate for a longer period of time in order to stimulate the growth needed to help Sweden out of the crisis. At present, it is not the time to counteract imbalances by leaning against the wind. However, should this development become cause for concern, there are other means for making mortgages more expensive for households and thus reducing demand for housing and subduing price development. One such method would be to require greater mortgage repayments. This would increase households’ monthly expenses directly and would thus be an effective means of subduing demand.