Finally, the ultra-accommodative monetary policy stances of advanced economies have contributed towards greater global asset price co-movements and increased cross-border financial spillovers. In the context of a highly globalized financial system, extreme monetary easing has ‘pushed’ capital to other parts of the world, particularly emerging market economies where yields are higher, and boosted asset prices globally. The exceptionally long period of zero interest rates has also led to a buildup of financial positions that are attractive or justified only if yields remain low. As a result, global bond yields and exchange rates have become acutely sensitive to shifting expectations about monetary policy 5  changes in advanced economies. Such excessive sensitivity has put global markets on a knife edge with frequent bouts of volatility. These developments have critical implications for the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and its conduct. On the one hand, the greater influence of global factors and structural growth headwinds may have made inflation and output less responsive to monetary policy. On the other hand, financial markets and asset prices globally have become more sensitive to monetary policy actions and communication. This raises a dilemma. With inflation and output below targets, monetary policy is eased. Against the tide of global factors and growth headwinds, inflation and output fail to respond, and the temptation is to do more and more. In the meantime, financial markets respond vigorously to low interest rates and the search for yield accumulates in the form of greater financial fragility over time. Something will eventually have to give.

In China, for example, the service sector has grown to more than half of GDP in 2015, much of it driven by a surge in e-commerce and the expansion in logistical services required to support it. Moreover, as the cost of digital technology declines, a wider range of services are becoming more tradable including design, marketing, business processes, and education. Thus not only has the service sector 3  become more important within a country, the share of international trade in services has also increased markedly. The third, and perhaps most unsettling transitional force, is the ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance adopted by major advanced economies. What started out as extraordinary responses to a precipitous crisis, unconventional monetary policy measures have not only been maintained, but in many cases have been applied more intensively with ever greater degree of experimentation and radicalism. It is striking that after all this time, the crisis mentality among policy circles has yet to fully abate. The agglomeration of these transitional forces has had profound impacts on economies the world over. Together, the slowdown in world trade and the shift to services have underpinned important changes in inflation and growth dynamics. In terms of inflation, globalization has for many years increased the importance of foreign factors in price dynamics. Persistently low and more synchronized inflation is partly attributable to the effects of rising competitive pressures in world markets as well as common forces such as falling energy prices. As global trade adjusts, the influence of external factors has regained prominence.