samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Rather, recognise that all leadership is temporary, that you will be custodians of your institutions and keepers of their flames. And if possible, although it’s a bit late for me, take a cue from Cincinnatus and Washington, and leave before you are asked. Thank you. 25  As Haidt wrote, “People bind themselves into political teams that share moral narratives. Once they accept a particular narrative, they become blind to alternative models.” See Haidt, J (2012) p.20 26 See www.johnkay.com 27 Haidt, J (2012) p.365 28 As quoted in Barton, D (2017) 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  10  References Barton, D (2017) In the Arena: Leadership in an Age of Disruption Bernanke, B (2015) The Courage to Act: A Memoir of a Crisis and its Aftermath, W. W. Norton & Company. Big Innovation Centre (2016) The Purposeful Company Interim Report Buckingham, M and Coffman, C (2016) First, Break All The Rules: What the World's Greatest Managers Do Differently: Gallup Press. Carney, M (2015), Speech at Lloyd’s of London ‘Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizon – climate change and financial stability’ Carney, M (2016), Roscoe Lecture, Liverpool John Moores University ‘The Spectre of Monetarism’ Carney, M (2017a), Remarks at Thomson Reuters, ‘The high road to a responsible, open financial system’ Carney, M (2017b), Remarks at the Banking Standards Board Panel ‘Worthy of trust? Law, ethics and culture in banking’ Geithner, T (2014) Stress Test. Random House Haidt, J (2012) The Righteous Mind. Vintage Books.

11 Two weeks ago, at a forum of the International Conference of Banking Supervisors, Sir John Vickers (who oversaw the Vickers Report to reform the UK banking market) shared his views that the Basel III capital requirements are not stringent enough, and have not sufficiently reduced the likelihood of crises as intended. I am not saying that this is the view of the MAS. I am sure that many bankers will disagree. But the point is that this is an area which is deserving of greater discourse. 12 Evaluating the effects of the banking reforms will be a key exercise. One set of issues revolve around whether the reforms are having the intended outcomes or, on the other hand, whether there are unforeseen and undesirable effects. This will involve an assessment of banks’ behavioural responses, whether there are new forms of arbitrage strategies, and the spillover effects on the broader economy. Cross-border lending to developing economies 13  One example relates to the impact on cross-border lending to developing economies. 14 There are studies that indicate that some global banks have reduced their presence and activities in developing economies as part of their business review, and some have attributed this to the banking reforms. Establishing a clear, causal link between the declining trend in crossborder bank loans to developing economies and the post-crisis reforms will be helpful, if possible. 15 Such investigations can support the Basel Committee’s work on a full, timely and consistent implementation of the reforms globally.
Within the context of the exercise of the asset quality review the non-performing exposures of the banks were increased by € billion, out of which come, of course, the € billion that have to be adjusted. Another measure of the strictness of the exercise is given by the fact that the combination of the AQR with the stress test results in a drop in the median capital ratio of the banks of 4 percentage points, which is higher than in previous exercises. And in terms of billions, this means that the exercise leads to a decrease of € billion overall for all the banks, out of which € billion corresponds to the capital shortfall, meaning the banks that came below the threshold of 5.5%. But this is a measure of the strictness of the exercise that it had such an impact on the balance sheet of the banks, and it’s a usual measure of the impact of such types of exercises. But it’s also a measure of the resilience of the system because, in spite of this drop of € billion, the vast majority of banks stayed above 5.5% and were able to support such a shock, and still have a capital ratio above the threshold. And let me underline that the threshold of 5.5% is well above the regulatory minimum, because as you know the regulatory minimum for common equity capital ratio will be in 2018 4.5%, so we have chosen a more demanding threshold.

What often then emerges is a “popular narrative”. These narratives have been found to be an important driver of collective behaviour in financial markets and the economy.6 Behavioural biases at times of existential risk, spreading contagiously, can result in pessimistic popular narratives detached from reality. At times of stress, a global game of Chinese Whispers can generate unduly negative expectations. 4  See Haldane (2015) See Gigerenzer (2004) 6 See Akerlof and Shiller (2009) 5  7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  7  I think the prevailing popular economic narrative, among businesses and households currently, is unduly negative. It has emphasized recession and risk over recovery and resilience. It has resulted in good economic news (of which there has been plenty) being discounted too readily, and fearfulness about the future being accentuated. Let me give a few simple examples. Chart 5 plots a simple Google search of the relative incidence of two words – “recession” and “recovery”; it is an economic pessimism ratio. Before the Covid crisis, the pessimism ratio was steady. As the crisis struck there was a predictable and sizable spike upwards, by a factor of roughly 8. Since then the ratio has fallen somewhat, as we might expect as the economy has moved from recession to recovery. The dynamics of this sentiment indicator are nonetheless revealing. The drift down in the ratio has been very gradual. It remained elevated well after economic recovery had commenced and recession ceased.
Eva Srejber: The euro in the euro area and in Sweden Speech by Ms Eva Srejber, Second Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, to the EU Club of Sweden, Gothenburg, 16 October 2001. *  *  *  I should like to begin by thanking you for giving me the opportunity to come here and speak about the euro and its usage. The euro is evidently hot news right now, which is probably not surprising when one considers that in just two and a half months' time the 300 million inhabitants in the euro area will be replacing the banknotes and coins in their wallets. On 1 January the euro, which so far has existed asmerely an electronic currency it will also finally exist in the form of banknotes and coins. A gigantic logistics project The newspapers have been full of stories about the introduction of the euro for some time now, including fears that the transition to the euro will be a field day for counterfeiters. However, most articles concern the pure logistics behind the transition from the old national banknotes and coins to the new euro ones. It is not surprising that this should be given so much attention. The transition to the euro is a project of gigantic proportions. Someone, probably a Frenchman, has tried to indicate the size of the operation by comparing the weight of the coins to be distributed with the weight of the Eiffel Tower. The coins are supposed to weigh the equivalent of 24 Eiffel Towers!

However, it was difficult to make any well-founded forecasts of the effect on the krona exchange rate, inter alia because the companies' strategy with regard to hedging of export income and equity are not strictly applied. So what has happened? It doesn't seem as though very much has happened. Companies can keep their accounts in euro now, if they wish. Some companies, mostly smaller ones, have chosen to do so. The changes with regard to investments of liquid funds that some believe they have observed are thus not based on a change in accounting currency. The fact that perceptions of the existence and degree of changes in behaviour differ may indicate that strategies differ between companies and over time. To summarise, there are many reasons why the euro will still only have a minor effect on the role of the krona in the Swedish economy after 1 January 2002. BIS Review 85/2001  5
Information on non-banking institutions, potentially of systemic importance, such as hedge funds, was scattered, not quality-checked and typically provided on a voluntary basis. A tendency to create a bias towards the best performers was the result. Even for the banking sector, for which data is abundant – and, what’s more, there is substantial expertise in conducting risk assessments – the information available to bodies entrusted with financial stability functions but without a supervisory mandate is far from satisfactory. The information on the degree of interconnectedness that I previously mentioned is critical, even if only to identify the key nodes of the financial system network which would need to be closely monitored. So far, for the case of the ECB, systemic risk analysis is conducted solely on the basis of publicly available information, mostly gathered from individual financial reporting. The failure of Lehman Brothers just over a year ago illustrates well the relevance of such inter-linkages between financial institutions. They may matter more than the size of their balance sheets. And if those linkages are impaired, they can affect the functioning of the entire financial system. In fact, before the crisis an increasing amount of overall risk in the economy was perceived to exist, but there was little certainty as to where the risks lay. Few  BIS Review 115/2009  7  suspected that the vast majority of them would be held directly or indirectly at key nodes of the financial system network.

The ECB was requested by ECOFIN to provide the necessary analytical, statistical, administrative and logistical support, and to draw on technical advice from the national central banks and supervisors. This is a clear recognition of the important role that central banks have gained over time in monitoring financial stability. The Commission proposals specify in detail the new institutional arrangements concerning the establishment of the ESRB and the involvement of the ECB. The ECB/Eurosystem will provide its views when formally consulted according to the Treaty provisions. Indeed, further work is needed to clarify and optimise the details of the institutional framework for the ESRB as well as for the new European Supervisory Authorities for micro-prudential supervision. Sound institutional arrangements are a crucial pre-condition for the effectiveness of these supervisory reforms in general and the establishment of the Risk Board in particular. In this context, let me mention two key elements to be defined by the forthcoming legislation. One is the arrangements for the exchange of micro-prudential information among national supervisors, the new European Supervisory Authorities and the ESRB (subject to specific confidentiality agreements). In order for the ESRB to perform its functions, it should have the power to request any information it deems necessary (for example, exposures of large and complex financial institutions to structured products). 3 The other key element is that a risk warning needs to be translated into appropriate supervisory action.
In 2011, the average  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 11  number of hours worked in Norway was about 60 percent of usual hours of work per year. By this measure, the employment ratio this year was higher in Greece than in Norway. Total labour input is considerably higher in Sweden, Finland and the US than in Norway. We work less than the OECD average. Chart 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  When income growth is high, it is natural that some of the increased wealth will be reflected in a greater demand for leisure. It is nevertheless telling that the number of hours actually worked is considerably lower in Norway than among our main trading partners, despite very low unemployment in Norway. Generous transfer schemes and other aspects of our welfare system induce many to exit the labour force – completely or partially. In recent years, the high level of labour immigration has compensated for this. Nonetheless, this situation does not seem sustainable. Reforms that provide stronger work incentives are needed and should be implemented in anticipation of an ageing population. The pension reform was an important step in the right direction. Chart 13  What about the other factor that is crucial to growth? Mainland productivity increased markedly in the 1990s, partly owing to a number of structural reforms. The banking sector was rationalised after the crisis. The tax reform set the stage for profitable investments and business sector restructuring.

We have invested in a profitable oil industry and found a balance between spending petroleum revenues domestically and saving petroleum revenues. On the other hand, it seems that both the public and private sectors are having difficulties finding profitable mainland investment projects. Taking a longer view, this is a source of concern. Should petroleum revenues shrink, our economy needs more pillars to stand on. Otherwise, we as well would have to embark on a path of adjustment towards renewed growth. Perhaps Norway is not so much an economy apart after all. Thank you for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  13
In this context, what I would like to say is that the National Bank of Romania will strengthen its historical ties with the Romanian Academy with a view to drawing up extensive works, meant to be a “point of reference” inspiring strategies or programmes and entwining the visions and ideals of coexisting generations in contemporary Romania. Actually, one of the conclusions revealed by the troubled 130 year history of the National Bank of Romania, as well as by the universal history is that every time public debate descends from the field of free confrontation, among scientific, well-grounded hypotheses, into an arena of noisy or authoritarian arguments, irrespective of the immediate outcome, it will eventually take its toll on all walks of life. The current global economic and financial crisis has given us a warning once again that there is no valid substitute for consistent economic policies. Everywhere in the world, the correction of economic policy errors is painful and most of the time hard to understand by the general public and inherently tardy. The sustainable development of Romania hinges on the consistency of economic policies and the euro adoption strategy in the following years may represent a catalyst for achieving this coherence. Ladies and Gentlemen, In 1881, the year when the National Bank of Romania actually started its activity, George Enescu, a music genius, was born. He was an outstanding composer and violinist boasting a brilliant international career. This evening, we will enjoy his wonderful music.

You must avoid at any cost your dependence on these funds and pay careful attention to preventing the deepening of the spreads that may arise in the type of currency and maturity term. In the context of global economic developments, the uncertainty related to the future prospects in consumer prices and economic growth in the euro area EU countries and the USA, will affect the performance of interest rates in the money and credit markets and the exchange rate performance. These changes may affect the internal market through the exposure of the Albanian financial sector in assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currency. In addition, there is a risk that the challenges the economies of the EU countries and broader are going through be reflected in Albania through the fall in workers’ remittances, deterioration of trade deficit and decrease of foreign direct investments. 4  BIS Review 120/2008  Even though the materialization of these risks and their extent are not expected to be significant, you must assess the impact of these scenarios in your development objectives and take the necessary measures to be protected from them. In a broader context, in your relations with the parent banks, remember that you are leading banking institutions operating in Albania and that you are accountable to the Albanian authorities and the Albanian public for the well-functioning of your institution’s business. Increased vigilance is required from you in order to maintain low exposures in the international financial markets and ensure a well-capitalized and liquid business.
Inflation rates of countries whose currencies are pegged to the Euro rose to 10.2 percent from 4.4 percent. In this period, countries that avoid the nominal appreciation of their currencies have only exacerbated the inflationary effects of supply shocks. The necessary adjustments in real exchange rates have taken place through the rise general price level. 2  BIS Review 82/2008  Until recently, the common view among central banks of developed countries was to give priority to problems in financial markets in absence of inflationary pressures. However, they have slowly acknowledged the fact that the increase in inflation has reached critical levels. Accordingly, with uncertainties in financial markets diminishing, the FED and the ECB have hinted that they may resort to monetary tightening in the near future in the face of rising inflation. What should be the best reaction of monetary policy under these circumstances? Although the factors causing higher inflation are presumed to be exogenous and beyond the control of central banks, there is a lot of controversy on this issue. But before going into detail, let me question the validity of this debate first, because to what extent the increase in commodity prices is supply-driven is questionable in the first place. Certainly, there are structural reasons behind the recent run-up in food and energy prices. However, it is also undeniable that there are significant demand-driven pressures over commodities. Loose monetary policies adopted in early 2000s certainly played a key role, together with excess liquidity in the financial system.

12  BIS Review 159/2010  Overall, the impact of the upward revision in the food price assumption is offset by lower-thanexpected non-food inflation, leading to an unchanged inflation forecast at 7.5 percent for end2010. Similarly, the impacts of factors affecting the medium-term inflation outlook have balanced each other out, and consequently there has not been a significant revision in the forecasts. I think comparison of the forecasts by the ones in the previous Report period would help us to better understand the changes in forecasts. As I have mentioned earlier, considering a relatively stronger recovery in the domestic demand outlook and the second quarter GDP data, our output gap estimates have been revised upwards as of the second quarter of 2010 (Figure 29). The impact of the upward revision in the output gap was largely offset by the downward revision in the underlying inflation trend. Consequently, there has not been a significant change in medium-term inflation forecasts and the monetary policy outlook compared to the previous Report (Figure 30). In sum, assuming that policy rates would stay constant for sometime and remain at low levels for a long period, our revised forecasts suggest that aggregate demand conditions would continue to support disinflation for a while. Under current conditions, inflation is expected to follow a marked downward trend over the next two quarters and decline to levels consistent with medium-term targets as of mid-2011, as the adverse impact of the temporary price movements taper off.
Lars Heikensten: EMU - cohesion or diversity? Speech by Mr Lars Heikensten, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riskbank, to The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Stockholm, on 10 November 2000. *  *  *  First a word of thanks for inviting me to speak. I greatly appreciate the opportunity of talking about matters to do with European integration to an audience outside the circles in which I normally move. This is all the more stimulating given that there is little more than a month to go before Sweden takes over the presidency of the EU Council of Ministers. I intend to begin by saying something about the history and principles behind the European Monetary Union and how they can be related to our theme today: cohesion or diversity. Although EMU was fully launched so recently, I must then comment on what has happened to date, as regards economic developments as well as the economic policy cooperation. I shall then briefly conclude with my view of the future for EU’s economic policy cooperation. Political as well as economic grounds for a monetary union Let us bear in mind that none of the things we are discussing today are entirely new. Common currencies were in use more than a century ago and some of them were valid throughout the continent of Europe. A joint standard and a rapidly growing economic exchange were already seen as natural goals around the turn of the 19th century.

Given the recourse to the asset by investors, it provides the incentive for disciplined and appropriate governance of the management of the project. Additionally, multilateral development banks may also facilitate this process by providing credit guarantees to these countries to reduce the financing cost and improve the quality of the sukuk issuances. On this front, multilateral development banks such as The Islamic Development Bank (IDB) Group and The Asian Development Bank (ADB) commenced initiatives to support member countries to leverage on Islamic finance for sourcing of funds, through the provision of advisory services, capacity development and technical assistance. Allow me to now share Malaysia’s experience in the development of the sukuk market in our Islamic finance marketplace. The Islamic capital market in Malaysia has been systematically developed to ensure accessibility whilst ensuring the protection of investors and efficiency in the intermediation process. The initiatives to develop the market are also strongly backed by the legal and Shariah framework which is further supported by a robust financial infrastructure, including the settlement and bond information system that enables Malaysia to provide a complete sukuk issuance and trading platform. Since the first sukuk issuance in 1990 by a multinational corporation in Malaysia, the sukuk outstanding in the Malaysian marketplace is now $ billion. In 2002, the Malaysian government issued its inaugural global sovereign sukuk, raising $ million, which became an international benchmark for the issuance of global sovereign sukuk.