samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But in the wake of both (1) clear communication that the MPC remained focused on its November meeting, when a comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic and market news as interpreted through its forecast would be available; and (2) the introduction of temporary and targeted financial stability operations designed to address specific cases of market dysfunction, any inter-meeting rise in Bank Rate was largely priced out. Market participants had come to understand that monetary policy would remain focused on the outlook for inflation, leaving other mechanisms to address market dysfunction. Going forward, maintaining this distinction remains key to monetary policy's pursuit of the inflation target. More generally, whether reflecting pressures from the fiscal, financial or other domains, it is essential that the credibility, stability and integrity of the institutional framework governing UK macroeconomic policies are maintained. This is the environment within which the Bank's monetary policy operates most effectively. Preserving that framework requires that policymakers are assigned clearly-defined responsibilities; that they strive to achieve clearly-identified objectives; and that their institutional independence – and that of other policy actors – is fully respected. A view on the MPC's reaction function Having set out thoughts about the institutional environment for monetary policy, let me conclude with a few more specific observations about the macroeconomic conjuncture. I'll express these through the medium of my interpretation of what is often called the MPC's 'monetary policy reaction function'. When coming to monetary policy decisions, I take a 'full information approach'.

In taking this action, the Bank has sought to prevent the emergence of a self-sustaining vicious spiral of collateral calls, forced sales and disappearing liquidity from emerging in a core segment of the financial markets. Restoring market functioning helps reduce any risks from contagion to credit conditions for UK households and businesses. Such actions preserve the effective transmission of monetary policy. But crucially they are not monetary policy actions in themselves. Were monetary policy to be re-oriented towards serving financial stability ends, not only would it be less effective in addressing dysfunction than more temporary and targeted interventions in specific dis-orderly market segments, but it would also be distracted from its central task of maintaining price stability and returning inflation to the 2% target. At the time of writing, this distinction between monetary policy actions and actions taken by the Bank to support financial stability has been recognised and priced by market participants. 4/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  In the face of a substantial re-pricing of financial assets a few weeks ago, markets originally anticipated that Bank Rate – the active instrument of monetary policy in the eyes of the MPC – might be changed at an ad hoc meeting outside the regular schedule of MPC decisions.
For example, since the beginning of April the euro has appreciated by around 13% against the US dollar and 7% in nominal effective terms. Textbook economics would suggest that such sizeable changes ought to lower the prices of imported goods and thereby put downward pressure on producer and consumer prices. 1 / 14  BIS central bankers' speeches  On the left-hand side of slide 1 you can see that there is indeed a strong correlation between annual changes in the euro’s nominal effective exchange rate and annual extra-euro area import price inflation, here shown for consumer goods excluding food, beverages and tobacco. Simple eyeballing would suggest a pass-through of around 40%, at least following depreciations, a point I will return to later. On the right-hand side you can see that the correlation is already much weaker in the case of the pass-through to producer and consumer prices. No discernible pattern emerges over the past seven years or so. Of course, the reduced responsiveness at higher stages of the pricing chain in part reflects the fact that imports only account for a fraction of both producers’ overall input costs and final consumption. But the seemingly stubborn resilience of consumer and producer price inflation to the sharp depreciation of the euro in 2014, and the subsequent appreciation in 2015, is nevertheless surprising.

The song “Roll out the Barrel” was written by the Czech composer Jaromir Vejvoda, and the New World Symphony was composed by the world famous Czech composer Antonín Dvořák. So you can find at least some Czech marks in many areas of everyday life. How about my domain, finance? Well at least one thing originates in this country. You sometimes pay with US dollars, or Canadian dollars or Australian dollars for that matter, so you should know that the name dollar comes from the original Czech name tolar – TOLAR – which was a small silver coin minted in Western Bohemia in the 16th century. Now it is world famous. And while I am talking about the traces left by the Czech language, I should not forget that there is at least one Czech word which has spread from my very complicated mother tongue to almost all languages. That word is robot – the invention of Czech writer Karel Čapek. It comes from the Czech word “robota”, which means unfree and unpaid labour, or corvée in English. Ladies and gentlemen, I can only hope that I have succeeded in convincing you that this is a country with a long track record in many areas and that it is not a waste of your time to explore its history, beauties and treasures, be it here in Prague or elsewhere. I’d say you might find many other surprises as well. I wish you every success with your conference. Enjoy it, enjoy Prague and enjoy the Czech republic.
An improved wage-setting process, in conjunction with an active fiscal policy, contributed to curbing the real economic costs. Hence, the experience of 1986 and the beginning of the 5  BIS Review 14/2000  1990s probably provides a realistic picture of the minimal costs associated with stamping out high inflation. At the same time, an active fiscal policy enhanced the credibility of monetary policy because it led to lower unemployment than would have been the case otherwise. In Norway, high inflation is a war phenomenon and phenomenon of the 1970s and 1980s. In the aftermath of high inflation, we experienced substantial real economic losses and financial instability. The cost of inflation has been high. History shows that lower unemployment cannot be achieved in exchange for higher inflation in the long run. A monetary policy that fuels inflation does not generate economic growth. On the contrary, the result is booms and speculative bubbles, which are the precursors of recession and unemployment. In the absence of nominal stability, employment and production will not show stability either. The economy must be endowed with a nominal anchor. This is the task of monetary policy. The Norwegian economy was lacking a nominal anchor during the period of low interest rates and devaluations in the 1970s and 1980s. This led to rising inflation and instability. From 1986 the fixed exchange rate regime restored confidence in monetary policy and subsequently laid a foundation for more stable economic developments.

Chart 8  Through the 1990s, inflation has been on a par with or below inflation in Europe. While the average annual rise in prices was a good 8% in Norway in the 1970s and 1980s, the annual rise in consumer prices has been confined to 2 1/4% in the 1990s. The subdued rate of increase in consumer prices has coincided with a strong expansion. In 1999, the number of employed was 200,000 higher than in 1990, i.e. an increase of 10%. We had to abandon our fixed exchange rate policy in December 1992, primarily as a result of the system’s inherent weaknesses in a world of free flows of capital and deep international financial markets. When the fixed exchange rate policy was formally abandoned, there was a risk that the Norwegian economy would again lose its nominal anchor. However, the krone exchange rate showed little change and quickly found a new trading range. BIS Review 14/2000  6  Chart 9  In the first years the krone exchange rate was very stable, also on a daily basis. When we now look back at developments in the Norwegian foreign exchange market in the 1990s, we see no significant change in 1992. On the contrary, we witnessed a pronounced shift in January 1997. It was from this point in time that daily quotations and month-to-month variations in the exchange rate show that the krone is floating. Wider fluctuations in the exchange rate have improved the functioning of the options market and forward contracts in Norwegian kroner.
Petar Goshev: Macedonia’s prudent monetary and fiscal policy Speech by Mr Petar Goshev, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the press conference, Skopje, 26 March 2009. *  *  *  I. For longer than one decade now, the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia has been successfully implementing the strategy of retaining the stable foreign exchange rate of the denar, through a successful mix of prudent monetary and fiscal policy. The choice for this strategy is not incidental. Macedonia is a small, fully open economy and extremely import-export dependant and unfortunately highly euroized country. Historically, it had suffered high inflationary as well as hiperinflationary schocks, which are deeply curved in people’s memory. For such characteristics of the economy and with such negative experiences, the stable foreign exchange rate of the denar has a tremendous importance for the price stability and for the positive expectations of the economic agents related to macroeconomic environment. Since none of the stated characteristics of our economy has not been changed, we in the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia deeply believe that following up with the existing monetary strategy – keeping the stable exchange rate of the denar, as the main anchor in the economy – should continue. This means, i.e. let me repeat once again, that we continue to defend the stability of the foreign exchange rate with all instruments and measures available as of the monetary institution. II. In accordance with this strategy, during the past period, i.e.

Hence, for the whole of 2008 the reduction of foreign reserves was moderate and mostly a reflection of developments in q4, (at worsened export performance, increased psychological influence due to world crisis and more significant outflow of dividend payout abroad). However, the projections for the reduced external demand and the uncertainties about the volume of 2009 capital inflows, announce widenning of the gap between the demand and supply of foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market. Figure 2 Foreign Reserves (change compared to previous quarter, in millions of euros)*  BIS Review 60/2009  3  *The change in q4, 2008 includes the dividend payout of one large company to its foreign shareholder. Figure 3  4)  Developments in q1, 2009 show higher then expected worsening of the trends in the external sector. This corresponds to the continuous revisions of the projections of global developments, and is showing up through the further reduction of the gross foreign reserves. What exactly do the available data for the external sector show? First, in the domain of foreign trade, during the first two months of the current year exports and imports registered significant annual reduction of 36.8 percent and 16.6 percent, respectively. The reduction of the pressure on the trade deficit with the reduction of oil prices was offset through the drop in external demand, so although the deficit is within the expected range, so far still there is a risk of a higher then estimated trade deficit.
monetary developments, the euro area has consistently enjoyed ample liquidity conditions. Measured in terms of the moving three-month average, the M3 aggregate, which started the year with a growth trend of above 6%, began to show signs of slowing in the second BIS Review 115/2000  2  quarter of 2000, due in particular to the hikes in the key rates. It worked out to 5.5% for the August to October 2000 period, that is, one point above the 4.5% reference value. Although M1 growth (banknotes and coins, overnight deposits) has slowed considerably, it was still very sustained with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in October. Overnight deposits alone rose by 6.6%. This dynamism reflects the need for high cash balances in a brisk economic environment, despite the increase in the opportunity cost of holding such balances. In October, the annual growth rate of credit granted by monetary financial institutions to the private sector was 10.8% and that of loans 9.7%, while financing extended in the form of securities purchases grew by 21.2% year-on-year. This strong growth in credit to the private sector underlies the marked expansion of M3. The dynamic trend in the credit to euro-area residents counterpart to M3, which reflects the good performance of the economy, can also be explained by the increasing borrowing requirements of telecommunications operators, surging property prices in certain euro-area countries, and the spread of mergers and acquisitions. However, external transactions have had a restrictive impact on M3 growth, albeit to a lesser extent than in 1999.

It is not the Banque de France’s role to take the place of the relevant authorities by issuing a list of recommendations for reforms in the fields of education and training, the functioning of the labour market or social welfare. However, as far as methods are concerned, the Monetary Policy Council believes that a benchmarking principle for structural issues could be adopted in the euro area, namely convergence towards best practices, as we did in monetary and fiscal matters with the Maastricht criteria. Why not reverse the burden of proof in the field of structural reform by asking euro area countries why they do not introduce, in their own countries, reforms that have been successfully BIS Review 115/2000  4  implemented in another euro area country? The choice of such reforms should depend on three criteria: first that they have been decided on the basis of a political consensus, second, that they have been implemented on the basis of a social consensus and third, that they have been successful in combating unemployment. A large number of reforms pursued within the euro area meet these criteria. Thirdly, maintaining economic competitiveness: making France an attractive business location in an equally attractive euro area In the new environment created by Monetary Union and the single currency, cost and price competitiveness is, more than ever a key indicator of the conduct of national economic policies. European policies must place the emphasis upon this aspect of competitiveness.
Should such a risk materialize, the CBRT will not react to temporary price movements, yet the Bank will not tolerate any deterioration in expectations.” Likewise, at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on 27 March; after pointing out that “uncertainties in oil prices pose upside risks to the inflation outlook”, we underscored “[…] we will continue to closely monitor supply-side developments and we will not tolerate any deterioration in inflation expectations”. In view of the current level of inflation, I would like to re-underline on this occasion that it is essential to eliminate upside risks. To this end, last month, we implemented a “strong, effective and temporary” monetary tightening in order to eliminate the impact of recent cost developments on inflation expectations. We will closely monitor factors affecting inflation in the forthcoming period and additional monetary tightening (AMT) will be repeated when deemed necessary. Dear Participants, At this point, I would like to give you a quick overview on the monetary, financial and fiscal policies that Turkey has implemented for economic stability. The global demand shock that came after Lehman crisis brought steep declines in commodity prices with it. In response, expansionary monetary policy as well as supportive fiscal and financial policies were implemented at the same time.

Anti Money laundering and Counter Terrorism Financing regulations are in place; and  3.  Business continuity is assured. Chairperson, I wish you good deliberations over the next two days, the Bank of Zambia will be expecting a report from the conference. I wish to thank Celpay for once again arranging and hosting this event, and I congratulate you on your 10th Anniversary. I now declare the 4th Annual Celpay Mobile Payments Conference officially open. I thank you and may you have inspired deliberations. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
A credible 2 per cent inflation target acts as an anchor Thus, when inflation is high, there are self-reinforcing mechanisms that allow our expectations to adjust and this contributes to keeping inflation high. But an environment with low inflation can also become self-reinforcing in a similar way. Firms are then more likely to let temporary price and cost increases reduce their margins rather than pass them on to customers. The effects on other firms' prices and costs will then be smaller. Businesses and households recognise that inflation remains low and adjust their expectations accordingly. This means people do not need to worry or even think about inflation in their everyday financial decisions. An inflation target of 2 per cent creates good conditions for such an environment, as it acts as an anchor for the expectations of households and companies and also avoids inflation becoming too low. Households and companies assume that inflation will remain around the 2 per cent target going forward, even if it happens to be higher or lower at the moment. But this presupposes that there is confidence that inflation will eventually return to the target. The longer inflation remains above the target, the greater the risk that households and companies will be more inclined to focus on what inflation has been and set their expectations on it continuing to be above the target. Inflation needs to come down significantly this year This is one of the main reasons why the Riksbank has a low tolerance for continued high inflation at present.

It is obvious that many households are heavily burdened when mortgage rates rise and this is not something the Riksbank takes lightly. At the same time, it is important to broaden the perspective. Interest rate increases did indeed reduce households' spending money in 2022, but so did the large price increases on electricity, food, other goods and services. Of course, the conditions vary for different households, but looking at an average household, inflation eroded purchasing power more than interest costs did. Higher interest rates are costly for households. But it would cost even more if inflation stays at a high level. Partly because of the high inflation itself, and partly because it would then probably require even larger interest rate increases to bring inflation down again. Broadly favourable real economic development in 2022 But doesn't a higher interest rate mean that the Riksbank is "breaking the economy", as it is sometimes claimed? Our assessment in February was that economic activity is  7/10  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  certainly slowing down and that there will be a cooler development in the labour market until the economy has cooled down and inflation has fallen. But once we get through that, the economic situation will improve and activity will gradually increase again. Statistics published after our decision show that GDP at the end of last year was slightly higher than we estimated – the Swedish economy was relatively strong in 2022, as in the previous year.
In the same report, we assessed the capacity of the seven largest banking groups to absorb losses by measuring how large the losses would have to be over a three-year period before their capital base fell below the minimum requirement of 8 per cent. We based our assessment on the accounts for 2003 and assumed that banks do not raise new equity or supplementary capital, that the size and composition of the balance sheet does not change, and that the banks do not pay a dividend. In the first example, we assumed that banks have the same results as in 2003 in each of the three subsequent years. In the second example, we assumed a result before losses of zero for these three years. With the same result before losses as in 2003, the most solid of the seven largest bank conglomerates will have the capacity to absorb an average loss per year over a three-year period of 3.1 per cent of gross lending before the capital falls below the minimum requirement of 8 per cent. If the result before losses is zero in the three years, this group will have the capacity to absorb an average loss of 1.4 per cent of gross lending. The least solid of the seven banks will have the capacity to absorb average  BIS Review 39/2005  5  losses per year over a three-year period of 1.7 per cent and 0.8 per cent of gross lending, respectively, given these two assumptions concerning results.

The debt burden for households with the highest income (decile 10) has fallen markedly since the banking crisis. This is partly due to changes in the tax system at the end of the 1980s which led to a reduction in tax deductions for interest expenses, especially for high-income groups, and changes in the tax system in 1992. Debt is also unevenly distributed by age. In recent years, the debt burden has increased substantially in the younger age groups. The debt burden for the age group 25-34 is approaching the level prevailing at the time of the banking crisis. The rise in the debt burden must be seen in connection with the fact that they are in the start-up phase and with the rise in house prices. The high debt burden makes these groups vulnerable in the event of an interest rate increase. III. Consumer credit  Banks’ and finance companies’ exposures to household loans depend in part on whether loans are secured. Good collateral provides a buffer against losses and is therefore advantageous for a robust financial system. Mortgage loans account for the majority of household borrowing. The share of housing loans has increased since 1996, whereas the share of other repayment loans, which may be unsecured or secured with collateral in the form of a car or boat, has declined. Other loans include construction loans, bank overdrafts, operating credit, leasing and factoring. Their share is virtually unchanged. Norges Bank’s statistics do not provide the basis for estimating the total scope of unsecured loans.