samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Should that price outlook change, we may find that excessively high price pressures have been established, which may then prove difficult to break. It remains to be seen how long the effects on inflation of the price cuts for certain products will last. This argument, too, can essentially be said to involve an ambition to avoid excessive swings in interest rates and the real economy. Yet another factor that has been discussed for some time by the Executive Board is the rapid growth in household debt and the increases in house prices. A number of commentators have begun to highlight risks in this area. We have previously concluded that the developments are not a cause for great concern. Even though that largely remains our assessment, it has gradually become clearer that the developments in credit and house prices are one argument against looser monetary policy. A rate cut followed by a faster hike could bring about problems through their effects on household indebtedness and consumption. The inflation assessment I presented earlier indicates that inflation will be in line with the target at the end of the two-year period on which we normally focus. At the same time the issues that I have just discussed give cause for a certain amount of caution in interest rate policy in line with the Bank’s clarification of monetary policy in 1999. All in all, the arguments I have put forward advocate leaving the repo rate unchanged, which was also the decision we took yesterday.

Forecasts of UND1X at different times and actual outcome Annual percentage change  4  4  UND1X, outcome Inflation Report 2004:4 Inflation Report 2003:1 Inflation Report 2002:1  3  3  2  2  1  1  0 2000  0 2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  2. Productivity growth in the business sector since 1980 and HP trend Annual percentage change 8  8 Business sector Forecast HP-trend  7 6  7 6  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2  -3 -4 1981  1981-1990: 1.7%  1984  1987  1991-1994: 2.8%  1990  1993  1995-2000: 3.2%  1996  1999  -3  2001-2004: 3.0%  2002  -4 2005  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  BIS Review 18/2005  7  3. Forecasts of CPI inflation in 2004 at various times: the Riksbank and an average of other forecasters Annual average  3.0  3.0  Riksbank Average of other forecasters Outcome (0.5) Lowest forecast Highest forecast  2.5  2.5  2.0  2.0  1.5  1.5  1.0  1.0  0.5  0.5  0.0 Dec-02  Jun-03  Dec-03  0.0 Dec-04  Jun-04  Sources: Consensus Inc., Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  4.
Our projections suggest inflation will reach the target in 2024, driven by the stability of prices in global markets and the effects of monetary policy stance normalisation. A gradual increase in the key interest rate towards a neutral level will drive both demand and supply in the economy to a more sound balance. In parallel, economic growth is expected to maintain stable growth rates in the medium term, despite the short-term volatilities which are expected in the current year and in the next one. From its side, the  7/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Bank of Albania will continue to adapt its monetary policy stance to the new economic reality. We will make sure that this stance is prudential, – on the one hand - consistent with the price stability target and, on the other hand, - coordinated with the fiscal policy direction and development in financial markets. In parallel, the latest episodes of stress in the US and Swiss banking systems have returned focus to the importance of a regulated and well-supervised financial system. In this view, allow me to point out again that the Albanian banking system appears liquid, profitable, well capitalised, and able to carry out its primary function of financial intermediation and of preserving the value of Albanian households' savings. Nevertheless, the Bank of Albania will carefully monitor the situation, and will continue attentive supervision and regulation of this system, in addition to taking care of regulatory and supervisory framework alignment with the acquis communautaire.

Moreover, the mark-to-market completed by mark to model of a wide range of assets and liabilities has also contributed to this widespread focus on immediate financial performances. This focus on short-term performance can translate into additional volatility in the price discovery process: indeed, the shorter the investment horizon of market participants, the larger the impact on prices of any new information. Mimetic behaviour is by no means a new phenomenon on financial markets. However, technological developments on markets may have gradually reinforced this type of behaviour. The spread of benchmarking, which allows fund managers and clients to measure performance against that of other funds, together with the growing competition within the sector, appears to have favoured such “herd behaviour”. Some operators have come to the conclusion that it is better to be wrong along with everybody else, rather than take the risk of being right alone. A striking example of rational mimetic behaviour is the influence that hedge funds enjoyed, a few years ago, as "opinion leaders" and trend makers. The second set of factors relates to new market techniques or financial engineering devices. Here are a few examples of some of these mechanisms: •  The inclusion of contingent or trigger clauses in loan and bond contracts. These clauses provide creditors with a form of insurance since the level of interest rate paid by debtors increases when specific trigger events occurs (typically the downgrading of the debtor by rating agencies). These clauses were designed to help borrowers access financing at lower rates.
The Struggle to Fill Jobs In the current environment, filling jobs can be a challenge. Employers-including those here in Columbia and Greene Counties-are facing significant worker shortages. Many are struggling to hire people, especially at the entry level-in construction, nursing, and manufacturing. The skills gap is a big obstacle. In 2020, more than half of available job seekers in Columbia and Greene Counties had a high school diploma or less, and only a quarter had an associate degree or higher.1 Employers, especially those in trucking and the trades, grapple with developing a pipeline of skilled workers. An aging population is another issue. Over the past 20 years, the size of the workforce here has declined as the population has stagnated. Residents here are older-the median age is late 40s, as opposed to late 30s for all of New York State. In some cases, residents don't need more training-they need retraining so they can obtain new jobs. 1/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  The Jenga Tower Whenever I talk about economic prosperity, I like to use the analogy of a Jenga tower: Each piece is critical to the stability of the whole. Take one piece out, and the tower becomes unstable. Take the wrong piece out, and the whole tower can collapse. Our Jenga tower encompasses a whole host of important pieces. Job training is one. Workers need skills that employers are looking for, and job training needs to be accessible. Transportation is another.

Yves Mersch: The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve – an ocean apart? Speech by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, 12 October 2016. * * * Interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic seem to be trapped near zero. At first glance, looking only at the short term policy rates, one might think that both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) are facing very similar circumstances and challenges. Below the surface, however, the differences are pronounced. In the euro area monetary policy continues to be highly accommodative, aiming to steer inflation back to levels in line with our definition of price stability. In the US, which is at a different stage of the business cycle, interest rate normalisation has so far been slower than expected. It is worth taking a closer look at the details to understand the unprecedented actions of central bank on either sides of the ocean in recent years. To do so, it is useful to divide the crisis into three separate phases. The first phase was the global financial crisis after the collapse of Lehman Brothers just over eight years ago. Central banks worldwide faced a largely common challenge to avert a collapse in aggregate demand. The second phase centred on sovereign debt, a problem which only affected the euro area. In the third phase, which is still in place today, stubbornly low global inflation and anaemic growth are compounding domestic challenges.
Against the backdrop of an apparently healthy financial system, market participants report a substantial rise in transactions leverage, erosion in the use of loan covenants, more favorable financing terms for hedge fund counterparties, and especially a pressure to reduce initial margin against OTC derivatives exposure to hedge funds. But the concern is that this sustained period of very low credit losses and low volatility works to hold down measures of the underlying economic risk in these exposures. This combined with the range of factors I just discussed, raises the odds that market participants will be faced with negative surprises in the event of a more adverse macroeconomic  2  BIS Review 55/2006  environment. And this could have more negative implications for market dynamics and liquidity as market participants react to those losses and attempt to reduce their exposure to future losses. These concerns are not particularly new, and my sense is that they are widely shared among the people and institutions that are closest to these markets. They do not, in my view, challenge the overall judgment that these changes in the credit markets on balance are likely to make the financial system more resilient rather than more fragile. But they do suggest the need for greater caution by financial institutions in several important areas. First, it is very important that the major dealers make the investments necessary to improve the operational infrastructure that underpins the credit derivatives and broader OTC derivatives market.

Timothy F Geithner: Implications of growth in credit derivatives for financial stability Remarks by Mr Timothy F Geithner, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the New York University Stern School of Business Third Credit Risk Conference, New York City, 16 May 2006. *  *  *  Thank you for giving me the opportunity to speak to you today. We're in the midst of a period of rapid growth and innovation in the market for credit derivatives, and the developments in this market have important implications for broader financial market functioning and stability. A vital and efficient financial system such as ours is defined by its ability to identify new ways to allocate capital and share risk, but often the pace of innovation in the instruments themselves outstrips the pace of improvement in the risk management and control infrastructure. The credit derivatives market is no exception to this general observation. In my remarks today, I'll focus on some of the implications of these changes in the credit derivatives market for the stability of the overall financial system. As with any attempt to explore the broader implications of rapid growth in a new market, I'll say more about what we do not know than about what we do know. I'll also highlight the need for continued progress in addressing the challenges posed by the rapid growth in this market.
In a setting as august as this one – on the eve of the 600th anniversary of this great academy – and speaking on the day marking the 129th anniversary of the birth of John Maynard Keynes and the 289th anniversary of the baptism of Adam Smith in nearby Kirkcaldy – I should disclose up front that I am the least formally trained among the mostly academic economists who sit at the table where we make monetary policy at the Federal Reserve, the 19-person forum known as the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC. I have an MBA, not a PhD. I am an autodidact when it comes to monetary theory. On the other hand, I am the only participant in our policy deliberations who has been both a banker and a professional money manager – the only one who has been a market operator. What the credentialing gods denied me, the practitioner angels kindly granted me: another skill set that provides a complementary perspective to those of my more learned colleagues. I shall speak today, as I always do, only from my perspective; nothing I say represents the thinking or proclivities of other members of the FOMC. And most of what I will say will confront theory with my interpretation of the rude reality of the marketplace. A quick primer on the Federal Reserve’s structure For those of you who do not know well our central bank’s structure, a quick primer. The Federal Reserve is the third central bank in American history.

In Australia, the senior official in the Ministry of Finance and Administration is a member of the monetary policy committee. He or she has voting rights. In the UK, the Ministry of the Exchequer has the right to be present but only has the right to speak. In the ECB, the chairman of the ECOFIN Council and one member of the Commission may participate in the meetings of the Governing Council, but they have no voting rights. At Norges Bank, the Executive Board makes the monetary policy decisions. The Executive Board consists of internal and external members and has responsibility for all of Norges Bank’s operations. Australia has a similar arrangement. In the Bank of England and the Riksbank in Sweden, the interest rate is set by a monetary policy committee with members who in practice work full-time for the bank. In New Zealand, the central bank governor alone sets the interest rate. In Canada, the central bank governor has also been given this responsibility. In the UK and Sweden, the individual member’s responsibility is emphasised in particular. Minutes from the monetary policy meeting as well as the voting results are published. At the same time, members participate actively in the public debate with speeches and articles on monetary policy. In Norway, we have chosen to provide a broad account of the interest rate decision that reflects the Executive Board’s discussions. Differences in the practice of inflation targeting are often due to historical and cultural differences.
There are various measures available in current trade agreements, such as antidumping measures and countervailing duties for dealing with “unfair” trade, as well as escape clauses that provide safeguards for industries that face a sudden surge of imports. Again, the challenge is to ensure that such measures are effective, that they help facilitate rather than retard adjustment, and that they are not abused so as to avoid foreign competition. But, both sanctions and temporary relief have been provided for in global trade rules. We should be willing to use them when their use would lead to more equitable outcomes and would help sustain political support for a more open trade regime. Financial Globalization Is Also Important Financial globalization—the flow of capital across national borders—is also an important issue that must be considered. These flows help to support global economic integration in the trade of goods and services. This is a large, complex subject—and one the Central Bank of Brazil is well acquainted with, having successfully managed the pressures of heavy capital inflows as well as outflows during periods of stress. The tremendous damage of the global financial crisis underscores the importance of this issue. As with issues related to trade, achieving effective financial globalization requires robust and mutually supportive measures at both the domestic and international levels.

Actual benefits depend on a range of other critical factors. These include macroeconomic policy, the business and regulatory environment, the legal and tax regime, labor and product market flexibility, and the quality of infrastructure and public services, such as education. While the gains from a liberalized trade regime are not guaranteed, the alternative of trying to achieve a high standard of living by following a policy of economic isolationism will fail. Trade has played a key role in nearly all of the high-growth success stories since the middle of the last century. The Challenges of Open Trade It is important to recognize that while trade and international integration tend to increase the overall economic pie, the distribution of the larger pie may be very uneven. In fact, slices for some particular groups may even shrink. Some workers—particularly those in industries that are less competitive and whose skills may have become less relevant—can be hurt and can find adjustment difficult. Successful adjustment often requires individuals to change industries and to relocate to different regions. So, while trade is almost always a win for a country’s economy, not everyone within that economy will be a winner. This is especially the case where the policies to cushion the negative consequences of trade and to facilitate adjustment are lacking or inadequate. Effects are country- and industry-specific, and depend on initial endowments and conditions.
We need to ensure that no financial institution is “too big to fail.” This means we need Congress to enact a resolution mechanism that allows large, complex financial firms to be wound down smoothly, without the need for extraordinary interventions. In addition, we need to take steps to make the financial system as a whole more resilient and robust. This requires many steps – some already in train – including higher capital requirements for large banks, bigger liquidity buffers, and changes to ensure that compensation practices are consistent with safety and soundness and financial stability. It’s a long list – there is no single silver bullet – and it will take time, but the regulatory community and the political leadership will fail to meet our shared responsibility as stewards if we do not implement the necessary reforms in a timely and effective manner. Outlook for the recovery and risks from the financial sector The U.S. economy has begun to recover. Growth in the second half of 2009 was a bit stronger than expected and the pace of layoffs has diminished. We currently expect that the economy will keep expanding, but at a somewhat slower growth rate than during the second half of 2009 as the temporary boost from the inventory cycle fades and the effects of the stimulus bill gradually weaken. With modest growth, we expect price pressures to remain well contained. Nonetheless, it’s far too early to pop the champagne corks.

Thus, technology and skills are essential for healthy economic growth and for the financial health of workers and their families. As the economy and financial system become more complex, financial literacy is also increasingly central to family financial well-being. Improved understanding of budgeting, saving, financial products and planning for retirement is not only a high priority for people in their own lives, but also for the Fed with its responsibility for monetary policy. Education thus plays a key role in fostering upward mobility for future generations. All of this underscores the importance of achieving the best possible education for all of Puerto Rico’s young people and making lifelong learning and skills development a part of everyone’s future. Yet, about half of Puerto Rico’s low-income students drop out of high school. Reducing this dropout rate will not be easy, but should also be a priority for the Commonwealth. 4  BIS Review 18/2010  The private and public sectors both need accurate, timely and comprehensive economic statistics to perform effectively. It is impossible to make good decisions without a solid factual basis for those decisions. For example, the government needs good economic information to develop effective fiscal, economic development and regulatory policy. Likewise, to make the best production, investment and pricing decisions, businesses need accurate and timely information on things such as wages, income and prices. Poor quality information increases uncertainty and this uncertainty inhibits well-considered risk-taking and investment decisions.
It is a knowledgeable squirrel, if not as knowledgeable as the squirrels in the remake of the film Charlie in the Chocolate Factory that were taught by film-producer Tim Burton to crack nuts on demand. Yet squirrels live identically to their ancient ancestors. They have evolved at a snail’s pace, as have snails. That is because squirrels and snails lack imagination. Squirrels cannot imagine a world where nuts are delivered courtesy of a complex international supply chain, much less set about creating that supply chain. Nor are they likely to write a Roald Dahl novel involving oompa loompas or become the next Tim Burton. 5  Tegmark (2017). What life means to Einstein, Saturday Evening Post October 26, 1929, http://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/wpcontent/uploads/satevepost/what_life_means_to_einstein.pdf. 6  5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  Imagination is a uniquely human attribute. And it is an attribute that moved humans from the evolutionary slow lane to the neurological superhighway. Human progress was no longer constrained by sinews but by synapses, no longer tethered by biology but neurology. As my namesake (but no relation), the evolutionary biologist J B S Haldane, put it: “the world shall not perish for lack of wonders, but for lack of wonder”.7 It is not just evolutionary biologists that have recognised the importance of imagination in powering societies. Economists have too.

That has been true of every industrial revolution. Nowhere have these costs been felt more acutely than here in Glasgow.   These disruptive side-effects do not self-heal. They need to be managed if the fruits of innovation are not to rot in the fields. That means social safety nets to protect the livelihoods of those disrupted by innovation. And it means social institutions supporting the up-skilling of people. The GSA is a social institution created precisely to meet the latter need. 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2    The next 50 years may bring opportunities and challenges every bit as great as any in the past. The Fourth Industrial Revolution will offer huge potential to individuals, economies and societies. But the engine of growth may change, with artificial rather than human intelligence playing a much larger role. Some have called this Life Version 3.0.   The creative forces unleashed by the Fourth Industrial Revolution will need to be carefully managed to avoid a tear in the social fabric. This is likely to require new sets of skills, with creative and social skills at a greater premium. It may require new sets of social institutions and safety nets. And it may require a reorientation of our approach to education, training and work.   The “creative industries” are a thriving sector of the UK economy, generating £ billion of value-added each year. But, in future, we may need every industry and every worker to see themselves as creative.