samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This means in turn that it is reasonable to assume that wages will rise more quickly (slide 8). And the agreements signed so far support this picture. The new agreements will make an impact in 2008, and the labour shortages will also become more marked then. We are therefore counting on wages increasing more during next year than in 2007, by around 4.5 per cent. Labour costs per hour are also expected to increase. How this affects companies’ costs for the goods they produce will in turn depend on how productivity develops. Productivity growing more slowly and labour costs increasing If one looks back at the past decade, productivity in the Swedish economy has improved significantly (slide 9). This meant that production could increase more quickly than costs. It also contributed to employment showing fairly weak development over a long period, despite good growth. But more recently employment has increased, while productivity growth has been lower. We believe that the slower productivity growth is to some extent temporary. There can be several  BIS Review 132/2007  5  reasons for this. One reason is probably that new persons are being employed in the companies and that it quite simply takes time before they are fully productive. Another could be that new groups are entering the labour market. For instance, the service sector normally increases fairly late in an economic cycle and then the productivity measured is slightly weaker.

The interest rate decision and our forecast for the interest rate To summarise, one can say that two forces are pulling in opposite directions (slide 13). One is the stronger development here at home, and the other is a slightly weaker demand abroad. But even if we expect that slightly poorer international growth will have a dampening effect on the Swedish economy, this is not sufficient to hold back the increased cost pressures. The interest rate therefore needs to be raised, and this was what we did around two weeks ago (slide 14). With regard to the future repo rate, our forecast remains largely the same as in June, despite the fact that a lot has happened in the world economy since then. So to keep the underlying inflation rate around our target of 2 per cent a couple of years ahead, our assessment is that it is necessary to raise the repo rate slightly further in the future – to around 4.25 per cent during the first half of 2008. This interest rate policy should at the same time contribute to balanced growth in production and employment. A couple of words about uncertainty – a forecast and not a promise There is always considerable uncertainty regarding future economic events. This means there is also considerable uncertainty regarding future repo rate movements. The interest rate path we have published is a forecast. It is not a promise! There are primarily two risk scenarios involved this time.
That will allow clear messages to be delivered about whether countries are living up to their commitments. A remit should be set annually. It will play two roles: it will give the IMF a clear mandate to guide its surveillance activities and it will give the shareholders a yardstick against which to hold the IMF staff accountable. Greater independence for staff should be accompanied by greater accountability. (d)  What are the constraints of history? The Bretton Woods conference at which the IMF was established was attended by the governments of just 44 countries. Yet even that was fraught. It would be vastly more difficult to agree a complete new treaty with 184 countries. The IMF has much of the infrastructure and expertise that will be needed to do the job I have described – and an annual budget of $ billion to do it. That is why it makes sense to attempt to reform the IMF that we have inherited rather than to build a new institution. But the inherited governance structure of the IMF and other institutions complicates matters. The founders of the post-war settlement encumbered several of the new international institutions with unwieldy full-time resident boards. And the distribution of voting rights no longer reflects the economic and political weight of member countries. The task of agreeing on a new system will be enormously difficult. But if we fail, the influence of the institutions will diminish further, possibly irreparably. Reform of IMF surveillance and voting rights of member countries complement each other.

These must be judged – and reformed or  BIS Review 126/2006  1  discarded – on their merits”. My argument is simple. Existing institutions were designed for a world radically different from that of today. The cost of closing them down and building new institutions is high. So we must work with our existing institutions and make them more relevant to today’s problems. Unless we do so it will be harder to defend an open and liberal international economic order which has brought benefits to hundreds of millions of people around the globe. The generic challenge facing all the post-war institutions is to find a role relevant to present circumstances, and to decide on the operational capabilities and instruments which that role requires. Holding meetings and issuing communiqués is not enough. As a central banker, I naturally focus more on the IMF, and I shall do that today. But the lessons are general. It is worth noting the scale of the challenge. The specific commitments made at the end of the Second World War are no longer relevant. The shared experience of the Great Depression, protectionism and two World Wars has faded. And the majority of current nation states were not “present at the creation”. The world has certainly changed since 1945, and it is the nature of those changes which underpins the case for reform. The world today is different from that at the creation of the post-war settlement in two important respects.
At the end of discussions, the Supervisory Council decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged, at 2.75%. This policy will help provide the requisites for complying with the inflation target and is consistent with our projections for inflation rates returning within the target band in the medium term. In this context, I avail myself of this opportunity to underline that the Bank of Albania expects a better response by the banking system with regard to lending. This response should take into account, among others, the positive prospective of economic development in Albania and the stimulating policies applied by the Bank of Albania. Based on the available information, the Bank of Albania deems that expected economic and financial development requires maintaining the easing monetary policy stance in the quarters ahead. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Conference of the ACPR – Palais Brongniart, 8 June 2018 The major issues at stake in the review of prudential supervision of banks  Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, Chairman of the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (ACPR)  Press contact: Mark Deen (mark.deen@banque-france.fr). Page 1 of 6 Ladies and Gentlemen, I am very pleased to welcome you to this conference of the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (ACPR), which this morning focuses on major issues at stake in the review of prudential supervision of banks. The subject is not new, but it is always topical. Let me first stress the greater degree of security already achieved in prudential matters: the agreement of 7 December 2017 on the finalisation of Basel III and the now standard use of macroprudential instruments. I will then touch on what remains to be done in Europe, specifically the completion of the Banking Union, an essential step. ** I. The implementation of the Basel III agreement of 7 December 2017  in Europe, fully respecting the envisaged timetable, is essential The finalisation of Basel III – and not of Basel IV, definitely not – brings to an end a decade of regulatory efforts which have considerably strengthened the resilience of the international banking system. I reiterate that the agreement of 7 December 2017 is the best possible agreement for France and for Europe.
Don’t take this debate for disagreement about the broader goal: I am convinced that all FOMC members are committed to taking whatever steps they deem would help advance the dual mandate of price stability and full employment. For my own part, I am deeply unhappy with the current forecast of prolonged high unemployment, and will continue to review whether there is more that we could do that would bring more benefit than cost. Monetary policy must do its part. But there is a strong case for complementary policy actions because such actions can help secure better outcomes than can be achieved through monetary policy alone. If we are to achieve the best possible recovery and build for the future, we will also need ongoing efforts across four broad fronts: financial stability, housing policy, fiscal policy and structural adjustment to foster more sustainable U.S. growth and a more balanced global economy. Ongoing attention to financial stability and the reform and repair of the financial system is essential to support recovery. We need to make sure this proceeds in a manner that is not pro-cyclical, and for this reason we are, for instance, phasing in new capital and liquidity standards, and monitoring how institutions adjust to the new requirements. Nonetheless, the financial system must be healthy to support sustained access to credit. If we want those households and businesses with low levels of debt to reduce precautionary saving, we need to restore their confidence in the financial system.

Zdeněk Tůma: Europe's club of nations needs a rule change Comment by Mr Zdeněk Tůma, Governor of the Czech National Bank, in the published Financial Times (London, England), 4 January 2007. *  *  *  The European Union is a pretty big club and it will only get bigger. The rules and institutional framework used by the 27 members to make decisions are, however, much the same as they were when there were six or 15 members. The process of enlargement poses a dilemma: with the number of members growing we need rules respected by everyone more than ever before, but at the same time such rules can be a straitjacket, especially given that the present rules were designed for a very different club. One example is monetary policy and the process of adopting the euro. Policymakers designed a set of rules 15 years ago that are applied any time a country wants to join the single currency. The country is required to comply with the Maastricht criteria and also to stay for at least two years within the exchange rate mechanism-2 framework. Back then, these rules might have been perfectly legitimate, but today they are outdated and -counter-productive. The ERM-2 might have made sense in a situation where monetary policies around western Europe were based primarily on fixed exchange rates explicitly or implicitly pegged to the D-mark. Then, the ERM-2 framework worked as a platform for co-operation among countries with interlocked currencies.
Mugur Isărescu: Gaps and economic crises in South-East Europe – present and past Opening speech by Mr Mugur Isărescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the conference "Gaps and Economic Crises in South-East Europe: Present and Past", Bucharest, 28 October 2016. * * * Distinguished guests, Ladies and gentlemen, Allow me to warmly welcome you to the National Bank of Romania. The board of the National Bank of Romania and I are glad to host, for the second time, the Annual Conference of the South-East European Monetary History Network. Five years ago, in March 2011, when NBR hosted this event for the first time, we expressed our interest and support. We firmly believe that a good understanding of history, of how our forerunners addressed issues linked to monetary and economic developments, sets the foundation for finding solutions to present day challenges. This conference brings together central bank representatives from Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia and Romania, as well as prominent members of academic and scientific European circles. I welcome you to Romania and hope you will have opportunity to enjoy your brief stay. This year, the meeting is focused on economic cycles and economic crises in South-East Europe, both past and present. This is a generous and challenging research topic. All the more so, there has always been a permanent concern in the past 150 years for the policy makers in the region to reduce the economic gaps between the countries in South-East Europe and the developed ones.

I will conclude here my brief address, wishing you fruitful debates and viable, useful solutions by the end of today. To all the foreign guests, may you enjoy your stay in Romania. Thank you. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
And yet policy plays an important role in determining the dimensions of financial booms, and policy helps determine the ability of the financial system and the economy to adjust to its aftermath. We need to undertake a broad set of changes to address the vulnerabilities in our financial system revealed by this crisis. Just as a long list of factors contributed to the trauma, there is no single reform that offers the promise of sufficient change. The Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets and the Financial Stability Forum, which bring together policymakers and regulators from the major financial centers around the world, are in the process of outlining a comprehensive framework of reforms. Many of these recommendations will focus on changes to the mortgage finance market, the ratings process for ABS and structured credit products more broadly, regulatory and accounting treatment of these instruments and special purpose financing vehicles, the disclosure requirements on instruments and institutions, and other dimensions of the securitization process. I want to conclude with a few comments on some of the broader policy questions we face in designing these reforms. Regulatory reform and simplification The regulations that affect incentives in the U.S. financial system have evolved into a very complex and uneven framework, with substantial opportunities for arbitrage, large gaps in coverage, significant inefficiencies, and large differences in the degree of oversight and restraint upon institutions that engage in very similar economic activities.

The earlier domination of investment and borrowing is giving way to increasing flows from transactions in securities. New players have become more and more important. The quest for the best possible return on private savings is giving insurance companies, pension funds and highly leveraged funds a dominant position. Whereas the players used to be a more homogeneous group, consisting mainly of banks, households are increasingly opting to have their savings managed more actively than simple deposit accounts. While these changes have occurred in the various national financial markets, they have obviously also had consequences for the international capital flows. Advantages of free capital flows International financial markets that are free and integrated can enhance global growth through more efficient resource utilisation. Savings can be channelled to the best investment opportunities, unrestricted by national borders. Capital-importing countries can build up productive facilities, obtain access to modern technology and expand in sectors with relatively high productivity, while capitalexporting countries can earn a higher return. The industrialisation of Sweden in the latter part of the nineteenth century is a good example of what access to foreign capital can do; the construction of the railway network, for example, was financed with foreign loans. Financial markets also make it easier for economic agents to manage risks so that the economy functions more efficiently. The wide variety of financial instruments enables investors and borrowers to choose their preferred level of risk.
Bordo M., Stock Market Crashes, Productivity, Boom, Busts and Recessions: Some Historical Evidence, Rutgers University, unpublished manuscript. Bordo M. Jeanne O., Boom-Bust in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy, NBER Working Paper, No. 8966, June 2002. Borio C., Lowe P., Asset Prices, Financial and Monetary Stability: Exploring the Nexus, BIS Working Paper, No. 114, July 2002. Cecchetti S., What the FOMC Says and Does When the Stock Market Booms, article presented at the conference held at Reserve Bank of Australia, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, Sidney, 18-19 August 2003. Cecchetti S., Genberg H., Lipsky J., Wadhwani S., Asset Price and Central Bank Policy, Geneva Report on Global Economy. Cecchetti S., Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms, NBER Working Paper, No. 12542, September 2006. Chadha J., Sarno L. Valente G., Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Exchange Rates, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 51, No. 3 International Monetary Fund 2004. Filardo A., Monetary Policy, Asset Price Bubbles: calibrating the monetary policy trade-offs, BIS Working Paper, No. 155, June 2004. 6  BIS Review 134/2007  Gruen D., Plumb M. Stone A., How Should Monetary Policy React to Asset Price Bubbles?, International Journal of Central Banking, December 2005. Helbing T., Bayoumi T. Are they in all the same boat: The 2000-1 growth slowdown under the G-7 Business Linkage, IMF Working Paper 2003. Kohn D., Remarks by Donald Kohn at Monetary Policy: A Journey from Theory to Practice, An ECB Colloquium held in honor of Ottmar Issing, 16 March 2005.

Furthermore, an additional system will be launched soon to offer communication between the domestic clearing houses under the auspices of their organization, the EACHA 16 . Thus, the most effective and best adjusted to SEPA standards local clearing houses may become less numerous but they should not  15  CCBM2 (Collateral Central Bank Management) is designed to be a mechanism which allows the use of securities deposited at foreign central depositories of securities to collateralize monetary policy operations pursued by the Eurosystem and to collateralize mid-day credit in the RTGS system. 16  EACHA (European Automated Clearing House Association), the association established on 28 September 2006, grouping the representatives of 20 automated clearing houses. EACHA aims to: - be a forum for the sharing of information and experience amongst its members and undertake work on the issues of general interest to the payment industry, in particular to develop common standards for SEPA interbank clearing and settlement. BIS Review 134/2007  5  close down, contrary to the least effective ones or those which will not switch into SEPA standards in due time. I would then put forward a hypothesis that harmonization and integration will lead to the enhanced integration of the systems within the area of payment and settlement services, new systems of pan-European character will develop or will be launched but domestic systems will not come out of use altogether.
When the system is operational, all parties will benefit from advantages in terms of cost, efficiency, payment security and management of the associated liquidity in the context of an integrated, competitive and innovative market for all cashless payments in euro. 3. Improving the attractiveness and competitiveness of the Paris financial centre  The competitiveness of the Paris financial centre is an advantage in our crisis exit strategy and one that is important to continue developing – particularly after the announcement of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  ICE’s takeover bid for NYSE Euronext, which could substantially change the role of the financial centre’s players and generate new opportunities. It is essential that efforts undertaken to consolidate and develop market infrastructures as well as market and post-trade services be intensified. From this point of view, 2013 will represent an important step forward with the full deployment of the offer of clearing and triparty collateral management services for repo transactions in euro that has been developed with Paris’s principal financial operators, banks, clearing and settlement infrastructures and the Banque de France. We will also strive to take advantage of new opportunities as they emerge, particularly in the areas of services for financing, investment and settlement in increasingly international currencies (such as the renminbi) and infrastructures for enhancing market transparency (such as data warehouses for the repo market for example). 4.

The same is also true for market making activities that play a vital role in ensuring financial market liquidity and thus in convincing investors to finance the real economy. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  This will therefore mean a new organisation for banks and greater powers for the ACP, including notably banking crisis resolution powers. The ACP will then become the ACPR. In exceptional circumstances, the ACP could call on support from the failing entity’s shareholders and subordinated bondholders. It could then, if necessary, request intervention by the Deposit Insurance and Resolution Fund, which is currently only required to intervene in the framework of its depositor compensation arrangements, even though it has already voluntarily participated in restructuring operations. In this respect, in line with the Paris financial centre’s wishes, the draft law provides that the possibility of calling on support from the Fund will be capped at a ceiling set by decree in order to ensure that the Fund’s intervention does not result in contagion. 1.2  A few words on the banking union  Distinct progress was made in 2012 in the area of European banking supervision. The euro area crisis required particularly ambitious measures to be adopted and these steps have now been taken. Thanks to the determination of European leaders, at the end of 2012, an agreement was reached on two draft regulations establishing the Single Supervisory Mechanism under the auspices of the ECB.