samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
So, allow me to proceed to look more closely at the determining factors behind long-term growth and see how they have developed historically and what can be said about future developments. I shall begin with labour productivity. Productivity growth Figure 2 shows the annual change in labour productivity, measured as GDP per hour worked, together with an estimate of the long-term trend. At the bottom of the figure is the average rate of change during different periods of time. We can see that productivity growth is nearly always positive and varies considerably from year to year, but also that it has had a tendency to increase over time, particularly during the 1990s. This is a clear difference compared with the previous decade. On average, the increase in productivity was 1.2 per cent during the 1980s. During the 1990s, there was a rapid increase and productivity growth reached an average level of above 2 per cent. This average subsequently remained at that level for the remainder of the period. What is the reason for this more favourable development? We do not have any certain answers, but there are still some factors that have most probably contributed to this development. To begin with, we must remember that the Swedish economy underwent a severe crisis at the beginning of the 1990s and this probably contributed to raising productivity growth during the first half of the decade. Many companies went out of business during the crisis; companies with relatively low profitability.

Page 1  The PRA's future approach to policy − speech by Vicky Saporta Given at the City & Financial Global event  Page 2  Published on 27 September 2022  Vicky explains how regulation that is strong and responsive can avoid unnecessary trade-offs between competitiveness and resilience. The Financial Services and Markets Bill 2022 introduces new powers and a new secondary objective on competitiveness and growth for the PRA. Vicky argues that the PRA can use these new powers to regulate responsively, and better tailor rules to the needs of the UK. Vicky sets out the PRA’s intention to take a proactive approach to the new objective. She explains that as a global financial hub, the UK’s competitiveness in financial services rests on its skilled workforce, and its deep and specialised markets. Vicky argues that the UK economy has more to gain by having a regulatory regime that is open to international business, nondiscriminating, predictable, transparent, responsive to threats and opportunities rather than in weakening standards to attract business. Speech Introduction The Government’s Financial Services and Markets Bill introduces important changes to the PRA’s powers and responsibilities. It does so to implement reforms identified by the Future Regulatory Framework for Financial Services Review, or the ‘FRF Review’. The reforms will move financial regulation back to a British style of regulation based on the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000, which we refer to as ‘FSMA’. Most technical rules will be made by regulators accountable to Parliament.
BIS Review 23/2006  5  our ability to effect settlements with tax offices (submit tax returns and effect payments), obtain a driving license or register a vehicle online. We have been assigned the last position among the EU Member States due to the lack of possibility to register a company online — we cannot even download the forms from the website. For a contrast, in seven EU Member States there is already a possibility to register a company online, without any additional paper-based procedures. The only area in which Poland meets all the criteria to catch up with the leaders, is the ability to submit customs declarations online. This service is available at top quality in a decisive majority of the EU Member States and only six countries provide it at a level lower than maximum. 20 It is worth noting that the purpose of e-administration expansion is not to rank high but to bring measurable and specific benefits to citizens, companies, the public administration itself and the entire economy. The research conducted by the European Commission shows that EU citizens save approx. seven million hours yearly given their ability to settle the income tax (submit tax returns or effect payments) online. If such a service were commonly available and exploited, the amount of time saved by EU citizens in connection with the income tax settlement could hit 100 million hours yearly. It has been estimated that each transaction online reduces the amount of time spent for its execution by more than an hour.

But we must continue pressing on with the reform effort and not let reform fatigue get in our way. I need not remind you that Britain herself undertook deep and painful reforms during the 1980s. To a great extent, I believe the golden age the British economy is enjoying today reflects the hard work of not so long ago. Ladies and gentlemen, Globalization is a long and difficult road. We all know the rewards are considerable and the journey worthwhile. But sometimes the obstacles may seem discouraging, even insurmountable. The risks may seem too great. Nearly twenty years ago, the Thai economy was staggering from a global oil crisis. Ten years ago, Thailand was at the epicenter of the Asian financial crisis. Today, we face the challenges of global imbalances and high oil prices. I am optimistic that Thailand will once again overcome these challenges as it overcame those in the past with experience, lessons learned and foresight. The future will bring with it a new set of challenges. I cannot tell you the shape or form that these future challenges will take. But I can tell you this: ten years from today, when my successor addresses the distinguished members of the British Chamber of Commerce, I expect that this room will not be  4  BIS Review 64/2007  large enough for such a gathering. Your membership will have grown by leaps and bounds together with your enterprises. Ladies and Gentlemen, The road ahead still beckons. We have come a long way together.
Indeed, global custodians not only rely on a worldwide network of sub-custodians offering easy access to all markets, but they also develop in-house clearing and settlement procedures with very competitive costs. Without any doubt, financial market infrastructures are facing great challenges in terms of higher technical requirements, the necessity to achieve efficiency gains, and higher competitive stakes. I believe that market forces - rather than political pressure - should drive the consolidation process. The 4  4  The Giovannini Group (2001): Cross-Border Clearing and Settlement Arrangements in the European Union, Brussels. BIS Review 37/2002  many changes taking place also challenge oversight authorities. It is their task to analyse the systemic implications of what goes on particularly at the cross-border level, and to make sure that these changes will enhance, and not endanger, the soundness of the financial system. Let me address these issues in the concluding part. Implications for oversight authorities I begin by quoting Alexandre Lamfalussy, Chairman of the Committee of the Wise Men, which, more 5 than a year ago, published the famous report on securities regulation within the EU . Lamfalussy was 6 very clear when he asserted that “the current [securities] regulatory system is not working” . Indeed, unclear and sometimes even contradictory regulations or inconsistent implementation of regulations among countries impair the creation of a single capital market within the European Union.

Ladies and gentlemen, A mere glimpse into the conference program can show us how proud Africa can be of its diaspora, which has succeeded in positioning itself in the best universities in the world. This great potential can be harnessed by integrating some Africa-specific issues in its research agendas, and strengthening the ties with the African academic institutions. National authorities, for their part, have an important responsibility in this respect. They are called upon to put in place enabling frameworks that are flexible enough to attract this diaspora and benefit from its skills. 5  In our view, it also falls upon the international cooperation to strongly support Africa through this path, by systematically expanding its programs and including a component dedicated to enhancing research capacities. This becomes all the more important today as Africa has launched a major project of economic integration, namely the African Continental Free Trade Area, whose success is determined by taking into consideration other related fields, particularly research and teaching. Ladies and gentlemen, In conclusion, I would like to highlight the great interest aroused in our country by holding such a scientific conference which brings together many eminent researchers and professors here present today. I take this as a gesture of support and encouragement, but also as a sign of confidence in the future of research both in Morocco and Africa. I wish full success to this conference and I thank you all for your attention. 6
Jeanette R Semeleer: To dollarize or not to dollarize – the Central Bank of Aruba’s point of view Speech by Ms Jeanette R Semeleer, President of the Central Bank of Aruba, at the conference “Opportunities and Risks of Dollarization for the Dutch Caribbean”, organized by the Minister of Finance of the Netherlands Antilles, Curaçao, at the Bank of the Netherlands Antilles, Willemstad, 24 August 2009. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, good morning! 1. Introduction  I am truly honored to have been invited to speak to such a distinguished audience on a topic that touches everyone’s wallet, and that is dollarization. With dollarization in this context I refer to as the use of the US dollar as the exclusive legal tender in a country. I must admit that at the Centrale Bank van Aruba (CBA), although we have regular bilateral meetings, we have been quite surprised with the recent consideration of the BNA to replace the Netherlands Antillean guilder for the US dollar as the legal tender for the island of Curaçao on a very short term. In view of the far-reaching consequences of such a change, possibly for Aruba too, I highly applaud Mrs. De Lanooy’s initiative to organize a forum of experts, which could enlighten us further on a rather complicated issue. At the end, it is of crucial importance that the required political decision is based on a thorough assessment of the opportunities and risks associated with dollarization.

For example, we amended the liquidity coverage ratio to take into account unintended consequences under stress on core markets such as commercial paper and to clarify that liquid asset buffers are there to be used in times of stress. We changed the leverage exposure measure, for example by recognising that cash variation margins are effectively pre-settlement payment of the fair value of the derivative. In doing so, we reinforced banks’ incentives to centrally clear their clients’ derivative trades. In other words, we simultaneously reduced bank leverage while increasing the robustness of derivative markets. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  And we’ve learned about the unintended consequences of prudential capital and retention requirements on the securitisation market. Regulatory changes arguably treat asset-backed securities in ways that appear to be unduly conservative, particularly relative to other forms of long-term funding. Efforts to rebalance these incentives are now a priority. As the Bank of England the ECB have argued, there is a strong case for differentiating between securitisations that are simple, transparent and consistent, and those that are not. The regulatory treatment of those securitisations should reflect their lower risk profile. By making changes, policymakers are applying a mature approach. We’re learning and adjusting. We will continue to do so, in a thoughtful, open, and deliberative fashion. The third element of the new approach is turning our attention to new and emerging vulnerabilities. Work to assess new market developments and co-ordinate responses will become increasingly important as macroprudential risks arise from outside the traditional banking sector.
We expect the fall in commodity prices, which is driven by the weak global demand, to bring consumer inflation down, and the awaited moderate pace of domestic demand to restrain the upside risks. Thus, we believe that underlying inflation will move downward in the forthcoming period. Distinguished Guests, Now, I would like to give a brief account of developments in economic activity and the shortterm outlook on which the inflation forecasts are based. According to the GDP data of the second quarter of 2014, economic activity was relatively weaker compared to the outlook we presented in the July Inflation Report. In the second quarter, we saw that industrial production remained virtually unchanged quarter-on-quarter, while national income posted a decline after eight quarters in seasonally adjusted terms (Chart 13). This decline was mostly attributed to the agricultural sector, which made a 0.3 point negative contribution to quarterly growth. Therefore, national income growth lagged behind industrial production growth (Chart 14). 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Industrial production, which grew by 1.1 percent in the July-August period of 2014 compared to the preceding quarter, contributed to growth in the third quarter. On the other hand, we may see some decline in the agricultural value added. Thus, there are signals that GDP growth may fall short of the industrial production growth in this period as well. Factors like the slowdown in the European economic growth and geopolitical developments led the external demand to decelerate, inducing a marked slowdown in the growth of exports excluding gold (Chart 15).

As a result, although we expect the slowdown in external demand in the third quarter to be partially offset by the rebound in domestic demand, I would like to emphasize that the third-quarter growth accommodates downside risks stemming from the agricultural sector. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  A steady recovery in consumer and investor confidence is yet to appear, suggesting that downside risks to domestic demand still persist. We believe that the deceleration trend in external demand will curb the rise in exports for a while. However, we expect falling commodity prices to contribute positively to the current account balance by reducing import costs (Chart 16). Distinguished Guests, As you all know, food, energy and import prices also play a great role in inflation forecasts. Therefore, before moving on to forecasts, I will briefly talk about our assumptions regarding these variables. In the third quarter of the year, oil and import prices remained below the path we envisaged in the July Inflation Report (Chart 17). Accordingly, we revised our assumptions of average oil and import prices for 2014 and 2015 downwards. Given the current outlook, due to external prices, year-end inflation forecasts for 2014 and 2015 were revised downwards by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. Considering also the high course in food inflation in the third quarter, we revised our year-end inflation assumption for food prices upwards to 12.5 percent for 2014 and 9 percent for 2015.
The chart illustrates the best possible combinations of variation in inflation and output that can be 1 achieved in the economy. The three points on the chart refer to different forms of inflation targeting. It would probably be possible, with an aggressive use of instruments, to force inflation back to the target within a time-frame of only a few quarters. This is often called strict inflation targeting. Monetary policy has the most rapid effect through the exchange rate channel. Strict inflation targeting will therefore often involve a relatively substantial appreciation of the exchange rate so that inflation can be brought down through a fall in imported inflation. Monetary policy should not cause unreasonably wide fluctuations in the real economy. We therefore apply a two-year horizon to achieve the inflation target. In practice, we allow inflation to vary in the very short term. 1  I refer to a more detailed discussion in a lecture entitled “Monetary policy, cyclical fluctuations and competitiveness”, given by Deputy Governor Jarle Bergo at a conference hosted by the Norwegian Association of Economists in Oslo, 5 September 2002. BIS Review 2/2003  3  Another possibility would be to place weight solely on minimising variation in output or unemployment. This kind of policy does not improve the growth potential in the economy, but smooths fluctuations. Furthermore, this would generate very large variations in inflation as the economy would then be without a nominal anchor.

Index 1992=100 130  130  Real exchange rate  125 120 115 110  125 120 115  Relative GDP  110  105  105  100  100  95  95  90  90  85  85  80 1970  80 1975  1980  1985  1990  1995  2000  Source: Sveriges Riksbank. Inflation Report 2002:4. Note: The real exchange rate is a geometrical average of the bilateral exchange rates between Sweden and the respective countries in the euro area. SG 16. januar 2003  BIS Review 2/2003  9
This would not only promote the opening of banking accounts amongst this target group but would also enable them to enjoy lower cost of financial services and better means of savings, thus benefiting the economy as a whole. As the electronic payment channels become more easily accessible, user-friendly and offered at a low cost, it would thus provide the opportunity to shift the remittance flows from the informal to formal channels. Indeed, electronic payments can be one of the strategic tools to meet these objectives and achieve higher economic growth. Electronic payment increases operational efficiency and improves productivity levels through expedient payments and receipts of funds. Electronic payments would also provide the speed and convenience of making payments from any place or time. It also reduces costs through the reduction of redeployment of resources used for handling cash and cheques. Accelerating the country's migration to electronic payments has therefore become a part of Malaysia's larger national agenda to increase the efficiency of  BIS Review 69/2008  1  the nation's payment systems which would ultimately improve the competitiveness of our economy. Cash payments in Malaysia still account for a large portion of the number of transactions in the economy. Going forward it is expected that its use will level off and stabilise with the increased use of electronic means of payments. Credit cards, ATM cards, debit cards including the e-purse application embedded in the MyKad are among the card payments possibilities in Malaysia.

The high penetration rate affirms mobile phone networks as an increasingly popular channel for Malaysians to perform a plethora of activities beyond voice communication, encompassing all forms of digital communication, commerce, banking and payments. Indeed, payments via text messaging has the potential to grow in importance. With 25 million mobile phone subscribers in Malaysia, there are immense opportunities to leverage on mobile phones to accelerate the migration to electronic payments, to widen the reach and appeal of electronic payment services, to deliver innovative mobile payment products that offer speed, simplicity and convenience at minimal cost for the public, as well as to provide an efficient and cost-effective method of delivering financial services even in the remote areas. Also of significance is the high level of financial inclusion in Malaysia. With a population of 27 million, the banking system in Malaysia has 55 million deposit accounts indicating that a high percentage of the population have deposit accounts with the banking system. This is confirmed by a survey of a sample of 5,000 in 2003 that indicated 97% of those surveyed have a bank account. The financialisation of savings is also confirmed by the high percentage of deposits to GDP at 152%. The high percentage of mobile phone subscriber and the high rate of participation of the population in the banking system are important pre-conditions for the significant use of the mobile phone as an ideal platform for personal payments.
This applies both to companies competing on international markets and those supplying goods and services to the domestic market. In comparison with other countries, it is particularly productivity gains in banks and other service sectors that stand out. Examples are automated processes and swifter payments in the financial industry and improved inventory and management systems in commerce and transport. In sum, these positive supply side shocks have increased the growth capacity of the Norwegian economy, and have played their part in keeping inflation at a low level. Monetary policy assessments  Monetary policy influences the economy with a lag. Norges Bank sets the interest rate with a view to stabilising inflation close to the target in the medium term. The interest rate path should provide a reasonable balance between the path for inflation and the path for capacity utilisation. When we reduced the interest rate in 2003, demand and output rapidly picked up. However, it took a long time for employment to rise and the next phase from a pick-up in employment to a fall in unemployment was also long. But now the upturn has entered into a mature phase. The enterprises in our regional network report that capacity constraints are now limiting further growth. Unemployment has fallen markedly over the past year. Wage growth appears to be rising, but so far only gradually. Prices for many inputs and services and building materials are rising markedly. Consumer price inflation is also expected to pick up further ahead. Thus, interest rates are rising.

The Norwegian authorities have been successful in ensuring that the bulk of the petroleum wealth benefits Norwegian society as a whole. Both the state’s ownership interests through the State’s Direct Financial Interest in petroleum activities (SDFI) and the tax system have been important. The companies that extract oil earn a reasonable return on their investments and have incentives to invest, but the economic rent has essentially accrued to the general public. The authorities have so far also been successful in smoothing spending of petroleum revenues over time. This is important for several reasons. First, it is misleading to look upon the cash flow from  12  BIS Review 28/2007  petroleum activities as income. The appropriate economic perspective is to see the transfer of cash flow to foreign investments as a way of transferring capital from one account to another – from petroleum to foreign securities. By doing so, we diversify risk. Second, the size of the cash flow from petroleum activities varies. If petroleum revenues were to be spent as they accrue, this would lead to wide fluctuations in demand in the Norwegian economy. Third, petroleum revenue spending has an impact on competitiveness in Norwegian business and industry. A high level and substantial variations in petroleum revenue spending would have a negative impact on internationally exposed industries. The establishment of the Government Pension Fund – Global and the spending guidelines for petroleum revenues are part of the response to these challenges.