samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But the National Institute is one of the forecasters with the largest resources and it usually “sets the trend” for other forecasters. Last November the Institute counted on annual rates of CPI inflation of 2.0 per cent for 1998 and 2.5 per cent for 1999. In other words, inflation would move gradually upwards from the price stability target. In keeping with this, the Institute also counted on an monetary policy realignment, with an expected increase in the repo rate from 4.10 to 5.5 per cent, that is, by 140 basis points. This March - only four months later - the National Institute’s prediction of inflation had changed considerably, to annual rates of 1.1 and 1.5 per cent for 1998 and 1999, respectively. The Institute’s most recent assessment is that during 1998 and 1999 there is no need for any change from the present level of the repo rate. What has happened to forecasters’ perception of inflation? Increased element of transitory price effects Basically, nothing has happened in the appraisal of the upward cyclical phase. The National Institute, like most other observers, counts on good growth in the coming years. The strength of the upswing may vary but the overall picture is that demand growth will be somewhat above the long-term trend, which implies rising resource utilisation. But besides expectations of lower wage increases, there have been a number of favourable price shocks on the supply side. Falling international crude oil prices have already led to price reductions for energy-related goods.

This complies with EU agreements. ERM membership is voluntary. But even in a flexible regime, exchange rate movements constitute an important policy indicator, albeit more indirectly. •  If the exchange rate weakens and remains at the weaker level, demand in the Swedish economy is stimulated via increased exports and decreased imports. BIS Review 35/1998  ˝  -6-  In this way, a permanent depreciation can lead to higher inflationary pressure. The Riksbank then has to keep its instrumental rate at a higher level than otherwise in order to fulfil the price stability target. •  A permanent appreciation of the krona tends to dampen demand, leading to lower inflationary pressure. All else equal, the Riksbank can then keep the instrumental rate at a lower level. With reference to the exchange rate, the Riksbank is wont to talk of “permanent” or “lasting” developments and that is applicable here. We do not react to occasional market movements because they are unlikely to influence inflation prospects. The Maastricht Treaty requires all member states to treat exchange rate policy as a matter of common interest; this applies even if the exchange rate is flexible. An EU country is expected to focus economic policy - both monetary and budget policy - on stability to the same degree as the other EU countries. This, basically, is the absolutely crucial condition for sustained exchange rate stability. An exchange rate that deviates permanently from the long-term real equilibrium level may be an indication that economic policy lacks credibility.
At the same time, we have seen the risks in this development in no uncertain terms. The flows in the financial system have increased substantially while the system has become increasingly complex and difficult to survey. The mutual dependence of the various markets has increased. This means that crises can more quickly and more forcefully hit an increasing number of economies at the same time. The important thing now is to find the right tools for managing these new risks; to find instruments for a better-balanced development. We need a better insight into the build-up of global risks. This requires increased cooperation between public authorities around the world. It requires greater harmonisation of regulations and supervision. It requires a better readiness to manage cross-border crises. And to find the means to counteract the build-up of large imbalances we must begin to think along new lines. At present the functioning of the financial system is being maintained with the aid of the measures implemented by public authorities. One sign that the crisis is no longer as acute is that the TED spreads have fallen in Sweden, as well as the United States and the euro area. These spreads are now back to around the same levels that prevailed immediately prior to the worsening of the crisis in autumn 2008. But the financial markets are still functioning much less efficiently than normal. It is also still difficult for companies to finance themselves in the capital market.

Nevertheless, it is not desirable, even for a central bank, to experience a long period of negative equity as this could generate doubts about its credibility. 2 Switzerland: a very special case Although the recent crises have been global in nature, every country has had to define policy in response to the specific circumstances that affect it. The Swiss case is very special as our country still has the leeway to undertake fiscal manoeuvres. Instead, we are confronted by another major challenge, the exceptional power of our currency. As we all know, the increased uncertainty and extreme risk aversion, which arose as a result, drove the Swiss  2  Cf. Jordan (2011) for more details on this topic. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  franc to an all-time high in early August of 2011, posing a threat to the economy and carrying the risk of severe deflationary developments. As I already mentioned, fiscal policy remained a conceivable means of addressing this problem as our country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 40% and its public sector budget has been in surplus for the last six years. It was not, however, as the massively overvalued Swiss franc first threatened demand for Swiss exports and Switzerland is, of course, not in a position to stimulate the entire world economy. In this particular case, it was inappropriate to resort to fiscal policy. It was therefore up to the SNB to take action. It implemented measures aimed at a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc.
Singapore’s value proposition to Chinese companies I believe the Singapore Exchange will be committed to maintain a robust market-oriented framework, which facilitates organisations that would like access to global capital for their business expansion plans. To date, the Singapore Exchange is one of the most international equity markets globally, boosting 38% of international listings originated from a myriad of places such as the ASEAN nations, Hong Kong, India, Japan, South Korea, North America, Europe, and of course, China. Singapore welcomes Chinese companies to use Singapore as a second home, to pursue regional business opportunities, to build international connections, as well as a test-bed for new, innovative ideas. At a point where East meets West, Singapore today is home to 26,000 international companies. Of these, approximately 4,200 MNCs have regional activities in Singapore to leverage on the Singapore connectivity to service their clients from within the region. An increasing number of financial institutions are also using Singapore as a regional hub to conduct their investment, fund management and private wealth management activities. Singapore’s asset management industry has boomed and flourished, with assets under management surpassing $ billion. Closing The establishment of the Singapore Exchange’s presence in Beijing could not be more relevant, with the Chinese market growing at a strong pace, and as Chinese companies and markets become increasingly linked to the global community. The strong economic growth in China, Singapore, as well as the ASEAN region, gives us a window of opportunity to deepen and enhance market integration, strengthening Asia’s competitive edge.

The Singapore Exchange Beijing representative office will, I am sure, play an important supporting role in bridging both China and Singapore’s equity capital markets, and servicing the current and future listed Chinese companies. It also demonstrates Singapore’s long-term commitment to China, and I believe both markets will stand to gain in the long run. As a Chinese saying goes, Spring is the season we sow the seeds in the fields. As the Singapore Exchange sows its promising seeds in China, I very much hope that both Singapore and the Chinese companies who choose Singapore as their financing location will enjoy the harvest of good fortune in time to come. With that, I would like to extend my heartiest congratulations once again to the Singapore Exchange for its representative office opening in Beijing. I encourage the exchange to play its role well in serving the specific needs of the Chinese companies with the ambition to grow regionally and in doing so, contribute to the strengthening partnership between the China and Singapore. Have a great evening, thank you. 2  BIS Review 46/2008
14  Thus, the number of furloughed workers fell from the April 2020 peak of 3.5 million to around 30,000 in April 2022, when the level of effective employment was just over 550,000 higher than in February 2020. 15  In February 2022 a volume of € billion of guarantees had been issued, giving rise to financing under these programmes amounting to € billion. 16  The percentage of firms of this type that went into a capital shortfall position after the crisis seems to have declined modestly (from 6.4% of the total SMEs to 5.7%) and the overall capital shortfall of firms in this situation declined by 9%, to 0.27% of GDP, according to Banco de España estimates. 5  In the case of households, the favourable course of the labour market and household income in 2021 is also helping them to recover their economic and financial situation. In 2021, households' gross disposable income grew 2.2%, but was still 2.8% lower than in 2019. Between the onset of the health crisis and end-2021, households’ aggregate net wealth rose by 9.8%, driven by the revaluation of financial assets and, above all, of real estate assets, in addition to the relative stability in debt. Overall, there has been a broadbased decline in the bank debt-to-total asset ratio – particularly in the bottom net wealth deciles – to below its pre-crisis level. Nevertheless, in the first net wealth decile, debt continues to far exceed the value of assets (by around 50%), signalling this group's financial vulnerability.

Bahrain and Malaysia has one of the strongest relationships among the countries in the Middle East. It was further cemented with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the Central Bank of Bahrain and the Central Bank of Malaysia in 2001 to jointly develop Islamic finance internationally. In fact, an 80-strong Malaysian delegation led by HRH Raja Dr. Nazrin Shah, Crown Prince of the State of Perak and Malaysia’s financial ambassador, visited Bahrain in October 2009 to forge greater financial ties with the Bahraini Islamic financial community. It is heartening to note that common grounds have been reached on the standard contracts that the Association of Islamic Banking Institutions Malaysia or AIBIM, and the International Islamic Financial Market, or IIFM, have produced. This is invariably a reflection of the growing cross border harmonisation of interpretations of concepts and agreements. Furthermore, AIBIM’s interbank Murabahah master agreement (IMMA) and the corporate Murabahah master agreement (CMMA), recently launched in Malaysia, would further unlock the potential of the Malaysian Islamic money market, which saw around $ billion worth of transactions daily last year. In the global scene, it is estimated that the global commodity murabahah market is valued at more than $ trillion, giving rise to a huge business potential. I would encourage you to focus more resources here as it is one of the key areas that we can jointly promote in our regions.
As shown in Chart 3, 2008 stands out as one of the worst years in this period. Ten years ago, on 25 November 2008, Norges Bank presented the GPFG’s results for the third quarter. Lehman Brothers had gone bankrupt. The world’s central banks were making large and frequent cuts in policy rates. In the course of autumn 2008, the US stock exchange fell more than five percent on as many as ten separate days. Norges Bank wrote in its press release that “The third quarter of 2008 was an unusually demanding quarter for the management of the Government Pension Fund – Global.” And it was to get worse. The GPFG posted a return for 2008 of minus 23 percent, measured in terms of the fund’s currency basket. Chart 4: Post-crisis paths have differed Chart 4 shows developments in the US equity market from 2008 onwards. The rapid reversal in equity markets, shown in the chart, also affected the GPFG’s results. In 2009, the fund posted a positive return of 26 percent, largely thanks to a 34 percent return on the equity portfolio. The return continued to rise in 2010. While the fall in the fund’s value as a result of the financial crisis in 2008 was historically large, the fund’s recovery in 2009 was stronger and faster than had generally been expected. Owing to a weakened krone, the GPFG’s return was less negative in terms of NOK than in terms of the fund’s currency basket.

Even though changes in the krone exchange rate do not influence the GPFG’s international purchasing power, the fall in the fund’s value may have been perceived as less dramatic as a result. Equity markets have not always rebounded after a steep decline as rapidly as after the 2008 financial crisis. The chart shows developments in a global equity index in the period after the dotcom crash in 2000. From the peak in winter 2000 to the trough in winter 2003, equity prices plunged at the fastest pace since the early 1930s. Fluctuations in the krone exchange rate amplified the fall in the GPFG’s value measured in NOK. The value of the GPFG at the beginning of 2003 was 30 percent lower than assumed in the National Budget for 2002. Investors buying equities in Japan’s equity market at the end of 1989 experienced even more dramatic developments. The market fell and stayed there. The value of the shares traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is still no higher than the 1989 levels. From being the largest in the world in 1990, accounting for almost 40 percent of global market capitalisation, Japan’s equity market now accounts for less than ten percent. However, it is important to remember that these developments apply to only one country. Global equity markets in general have shown completely different developments since 1989. 2/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  What can we learn from these crises? The first lesson is that crises will occur.
Such surveillance efforts could also lead to discovery of parties trading on privileged insider information. SGX has the power to suspend or de-list a counter if conditions for orderly trading are found to be absent. •  MAS will carry out independent surveillance on a selective basis, to ensure that SGX is performing its responsibilities effectively. •  The MAS will have the power under the proposed SFA to pursue civil prosecution of listed companies which fail to make timely disclosure of material information, and of any participants suspected of market misconduct. The recently introduced civil remedy regime for insider trading will be extended to cover other forms of market misconduct such as market manipulation, or the employment of fraud and deceit in dealing. Civil remedy, which lowers the burden of proof against offenders, will complement the present framework of criminal remedy for offences under securities law. d.  Supervision of brokers  •  SGX supervises and inspects brokers to ensure that they comply with SGX's rules, are prudentially sound, and uphold high standards of market integrity. SGX has to act swiftly and firmly to deal with any unprofessional conduct by brokers and their representatives. •  MAS conducts continuous off-site review of brokers' operations to check if they comply with statutory licensing requirements. Such off-site reviews will be complemented by MAS' selective, on-site inspection of brokers to assure itself of the competence and effectiveness of SGX's supervision.

MAS and SGX will no longer vet prospectuses with a view to determining if they contain inaccuracies in information or factual  BIS Review 14/2001  5  errors. Issuers and their advisers have to bear greater responsibility for ensuring accurate and adequate disclosure. After a prospectus has been registered, it is proposed that MAS be empowered to issue a stop order and prevent further issues of securities if a prospectus is found to contain misleading or incorrect statements, or to have omitted material information. Investors who have subscribed for securities on the basis of the deficient prospectus can withdraw their applications and have their monies refunded. The new prospectus registration regime is aimed at placing greater responsibility on issuers and their advisers to meet the high standards of disclosure necessary for the development of more effective market discipline, and a more mature capital market environment. MAS will be seeking feedback on the proposed prospectus registration regime shortly, as part of our public consultation on the draft SFA. Conclusion Approaches to regulation worldwide are evolving with the times. An effective system of market discipline is necessary to sustain and promote the growth of open, transparent and competitive markets. Singapore is making substantial changes to its laws, rules and standards to support enhanced market discipline. It will be a process of evolution, but we have made good progress. Succeeding in this endeavour will require effort by both the regulator and all market participants, including issuers, their advisers and investors themselves.
Output and demand are posting moderate annual growth rates, but still with some improvement over the second half of last year. This is good news. However, marginal data show some loss of strength which, combined with low confidence indicators for firms and households, leads us to estimate that the recovery foreseen for the second half of this year will proceed at a slower pace. Accordingly, we have adjusted our growth forecast for this year downward, by one fourth of a point. Inflation has moderated but is still high and thus it is our main worry. In our baseline scenario, we have it around 4 percent for some months to later descend toward our 3 percent target. About the risks facing financial stability, the Report shows no big changes either. Corporate borrowing continued to rise in the past few quarters. Although there are obvious factors behind this trend, such as increased external borrowing-a logical development given the good credit conditions-and the depreciation of the peso, we must not relent in our efforts to closely monitor these tendencies. Anyway, figures also show that the households’ and firms’ financial burden has not increased, largely because interest rates are low, in line with our clearly expansionary monetary policy. The external scenario has also behaved as we outlined in March. The recovery of developed economies looks more balanced across countries, boosting confidence in consolidated growth of the developed world. Emerging markets continue to show some further weakening, especially in our region.

Since there has been no deterioration in their money multipliers, central banks of emerging market economies have not felt the urge – experienced by their counterparts in advanced economies – for an unconventional broadening in their money bases. Esteemed participants, distinguished guests, In emerging market economies, the gradual alleviation of the pressure on financing sources – caused by public sector demand – has provided significant room for the private sector to invest in physical capital. These investments have enabled – via capital markets and the banking system – the use of both domestic as well as foreign savings. These shed light on the importance and prominence of institutional capacity and financial infrastructure for financial stability. Smoothly functioning payment and settlement systems is the first and foremost significant requisite for strengthening financial infrastructure in emerging market economies. The existence of both a stock market backed by a strong capital market and also a bond market in local currency is also essential. Another important structural factor is a sound banking system. An adequate legal infrastructure, strong capital structure and confidence-based management are the prerequisites for such a system. Distinguished guests, A strong infrastructure is a “necessary-but-not sufficient” component of financial stability. Another “sine qua non” for more stable global capital flows is developing and implementing a macroprudential policy framework, and emerging market economies have taken important steps in this direction in the post-2008 period.
Federal Reserve Governor Edward W. Kelley, Jr. has recently elaborated on the activities of the Federal Reserve System in connection with the Y2K problem, as well on possible macroeconomic implications.1 I will not attempt to cover those topics again here. Instead, this morning I will begin with some background on the possible implications of the Y2K problem for international banking and finance. Second, I will describe how various supervisory initiatives led to the formation of the Joint Year 2000 Council a little more than two months ago. Third, I will discuss the actions being taken by the Joint Year 2000 Council, particularly in the areas of raising awareness, improving preparedness, and contingency planning. Background on the International Implications of the Y2K Problem The Y2K bug potentially affects all organizations that are dependent on computer software applications or on embedded computer chips. In other words, nearly all financial organizations worldwide are potentially at risk. Even those whose own operations remain strictly paper-based are likely to be dependent on power, water, and telecommunications utilities, which must themselves address possible Y2K problems. Also, many non-financial customers have dependencies on technology. All countries of the world, therefore, need to address the Y2K problem and its potential effects on their domestic financial markets. In some cases, it is said that computer systems in particular countries are not much affected because their national calendars are not based on the conventional Gregorian calendar used in the United States and many other countries.

The same message was also conveyed repeatedly by my predecessors, in three quarters of all press conferences since the introduction of the euro. The term “structural reforms” is actually mentioned in approximately one third of all speeches by various members of the ECB Executive Board. By comparison, it features in only about 2% of speeches by governors of the Federal Reserve. Our strong focus on structural reforms is not because they have been ignored in recent years. On the contrary, a great deal has been achieved and we have praised progress where it has taken place, including here in Portugal. Rather, if we talk often about structural reforms it is because we know that our ability to bring about a lasting return of stability and prosperity  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  does not rely only on cyclical policies – including monetary policy – but also on structural policies. The two are heavily interdependent. So what I would like to do today in opening our annual discussions in Sintra is, first, to explain what we mean by structural reforms and why the central bank has a pressing and legitimate interest in their implementation. And second, to underline why being in the early phases of a cyclical recovery is not a reason to postpone structural reforms; it is in fact an opportunity to accelerate them. The importance of structural reform Structural reforms are, in my view, best defined as policies that permanently and positively alter the supply-side of the economy.