samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Figure 3 shows the Riksbank’s present assessment of equilibrium unemployment, together with the latest assessments from the National Institute of Economic Research and the Ministry of Finance. Unlike in Figure 2, this is a matter of more long-term calculations of equilibrium unemployment. 10  In Figure 2, NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate-of-Unemployment) has been calculated. The terms NAIRU and equilibrium unemployment are sometimes used as synonyms. There is, however, a theoretical difference. NAIRU is the level of unemployment that is compatible with a stable rate of inflation. The rate of inflation rises when unemployment is below NAIRU and falls when unemployment is higher. This means that, in the short term, NAIRU may vary with economic activity, unlike equilibrium unemployment. However, over the longer term, NAIRU and equilibrium unemployment coincide. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 3 The level of equilibrium unemployment according to the Riksbank, the National Institute of Economic Research and the Ministry of Finance Per cent 12  12  10  10  8  8  6  6 Riksbank  4  4  NIER Ministry of Finance  2  2 Actual unemployment 15-74 years  0  0 80  84  88  92  96  00  04  08  12  16  Note: With regard to statistics on actual unemployment pre-1987 data is spliced by the Riksbank.

Benoît Cœuré: Interview with CNBC Interview with Mr Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, and CNBC, conducted by Mr Steve Sedgwick on 6 April 2018. * * *  You've been talking about trade and that is the key topic here in Cernobbio and indeed globally at the moment as well. What's your contribution this morning on this topic? The point I was making this morning at the conference is that first we're not sure yet that we're in a trade war. As much as possible, if we could avoid the bellicose semantics and come back to a reasonable discussion, that would help for economic confidence. That also means that if this would morph into a full-fledged trade war, this has the potential to have quite damaging consequences for growth and jobs globally, including in the US. Is it already having ramifications in global financial markets? We've seen the volatility and equity markets. We've seen higher borrowing costs as well. It looks like it's already having the effects of a trade war without being a trade war yet. To some extent, yes, we've seen that. We've seen obviously stock prices going down, some risk premia are going up, so some tightening of financial conditions globally starting with the US. But it all depends on how the situation will evolve. Certainly what we don't want to see is a general tightening of financial conditions.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  During 2013, we continued our work to approximate the regulatory framework and working practices with EU directives and ECB standards, in the framework of the European integration process. The last annual report of the European Commission confirms the progress made by the Bank of Albania with regard to achieving European standards in all the fields of its activity. It also commends the contribution of the Bank of Albania to maintaining the country’s macroeconomic stability. Last, but not least, I would like to underline the approach of the Bank of Albania to the public. In our medium-term strategy, we have, among others, set forth two important factors that help achieve our main objective: public education, with the Bank of Albania assuming the role of the financial educator, and enhancing the confidence in our institution. In the framework of financial education, after introducing financial education as an elective subject in the high school curricula, this year we targeted the elementary education, with a new teaching set for both pupils and teachers. We have also consolidated our position as a scientific research centre. Every year, the Bank of Albania brings together economists and academics from different countries and institutions. During 2013, a part of our resources was invested to enhance research and organise scientific research activities. *** Concluding, I would like to reiterate our long-term commitment to maintaining price stability as the primary objective of the Bank of Albania. The monetary policy has been appropriate and has contributed to maintaining macroeconomic stability.

The Rt Hon Sir Edward George: A broad brush picture of the UK economy Speech by The Rt Hon Sir Edward George, Governor of the Bank of England, at the Asian Business Association Dinner, London, 19 March 2002. *  *  *  Thank you, Mr President, for that kind introduction. I'm delighted to be here. In fact it's the second time this year that I've had the pleasure of dining with representatives of the Asian Business Community in the UK. Just a couple of months ago, in Glasgow, I joined the Association of Business Community in paying tribute to Mr Yaqub Ali for the remarkable contribution that he has made to Scottish commercial and community life since he arrived here from Pakistan some 50 years ago. It was a very poignant occasion, coming as it did when the terrorist attacks of 11th September in New York and Washington were still fresh in our minds. Those events sadly have been sometimes represented - or misrepresented - as having something to do with ethnic or religious differences. But, as the universal condemnation of terrorism which followed the events of 11th September showed, they had nothing to do with ethnic or religious differences; they were a reflection of a fanaticism which has no place in any civilised society. Nevertheless they clearly had the capacity to accentuate perceived differences, and to provoke unwanted tensions within our international, national and local communities.
Your Excellency Allow me also to state one issue that is of particular importance to, especially, developing countries, like ours. It has been established that effective national capacity-building requires adoption of international best practices. But for a developing country to benefit from this process effectively it would require citizens who are not only technically competent, but also fluent in writing, reading and speaking major international languages, among which French is key. For this reason, most professionals from Anglophone countries, Zambia inclusive, have failed to secure jobs in international organisations, mainly on account of their inability to communicate in a major international language other than English, such as French, which most often is a requirement for securing employment in international organisations. In this connection, we are happy to sign this MoU, whose principal objectives are to: (a)  establish a framework in which the French embassy can facilitate capacity building in the French language among the Bank of Zambia employees;  (b)  promote multi-cultural awareness and appreciation of a diversity of languages necessary for bank staff to transact effectively and efficiently in social and professional fora where the knowledge of French would be beneficial; and  (c)  enhance opportunities for bilateral and/or multilateral co-operation between the Bank and relevant French-speaking authorities and clients.

Global investors’ allocations to the region have been rising, alongside Asia’s increasing weight in global indices. The region has become a favourite hunting ground for investors, in search of the next unicorns. Households and institutions in the region have themselves become ample sources of wealth looking for investment opportunities. These pools of capital can be mobilised through our capital markets, to finance the region’s high-growth enterprises. Asia has an abundance of channels through which companies and capital can meet. There are established bourses as well as newer, tech-focused exchanges. There is also a growing number of blockchain-enabled platforms. Example: DBS Bank has launched the DBS Digital Exchange for the tokenisation, trading and custody of digital assets. Singapore’s Value Proposition Singapore is well poised to become one of the leading fund-raising centres in Asia. There are four key dimensions to Singapore’s value proposition: a vibrant ecosystem for private equity and venture capital; the premier Asian hub for solutions in investment risk management; a rapidly growing debt capital market; anda promising equity capital market. First, a vibrant private equity and venture capital ecosystem. The thriving start-up and 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Fintech scene in Singapore and Southeast Asia have drawn active interest from PE/VC players from around the world. PE/VC assets under management in Singapore have doubled over the last five years. They grew by over 50% last year despite the COVID-19 pandemic and recession, testament to the resilience of the ecosystem. Technology and innovation are making private equity and venture capital investments more accessible.
In the Netherlands, for example, households have similar or higher levels of debt, but tend to fix interest rates for more than ten years. In the euro area as a whole, the share of new variable rate mortgages has been trending downwards over a twenty-year period and German households appear to be the least interest rate sensitive. With regard to Sweden, I believe that the situation we are now experiencing with high inflation and rising interest rates may to some extent have a self-regulating effect. It may be the case that households will in the future see greater advantages in fixing their interest rates for longer periods. There is also a request from Finansinspektionen to the Ministry of Justice to review the interest rate differential compensation, which may strengthen the incentives for households to fix their interest rates. In the Swedish Government Offices the Ministry of Finance is now investigating the matter. Furthermore, one can ask whether it would be appropriate to regulate to influence households' choice of interest rate fixation period. But in this case, an indepth study of the advantages and disadvantages of possible designs is first needed. Regulation would not necessarily entail imposing binding restrictions, but could rather influence households' incentives to fix their interest rates to a greater extent. Higher interest rates cost, but prolonged high inflation costs more Households' high indebtedness and short interest-rate fixation periods on their loans mean that higher interest rates have a comparatively large and rapid effect on households' scope for consumption.

It is obvious that many households are heavily burdened when mortgage rates rise and this is not something the Riksbank takes lightly. At the same time, it is important to broaden the perspective. Interest rate increases did indeed reduce households' spending money in 2022, but so did the large price increases on electricity, food, other goods and services. Of course, the conditions vary for different households, but looking at an average household, inflation eroded purchasing power more than interest costs did. Higher interest rates are costly for households. But it would cost even more if inflation stays at a high level. Partly because of the high inflation itself, and partly because it would then probably require even larger interest rate increases to bring inflation down again. Broadly favourable real economic development in 2022 But doesn't a higher interest rate mean that the Riksbank is "breaking the economy", as it is sometimes claimed? Our assessment in February was that economic activity is  7/10  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  certainly slowing down and that there will be a cooler development in the labour market until the economy has cooled down and inflation has fallen. But once we get through that, the economic situation will improve and activity will gradually increase again. Statistics published after our decision show that GDP at the end of last year was slightly higher than we estimated – the Swedish economy was relatively strong in 2022, as in the previous year.
But they have grown markedly since 2008 and, with the search for yield, have become active in more illiquid and volatile markets while still in the majority of cases promising daily liquidity to their investors. We do therefore have to ask not just whether individual funds are properly managed and can cope with redemption pressures. We also have to ask whether this increasingly important element of market-based finance, as a whole or in large part, would under stress transmit pressure to the rest of the system, for example, through fire sales of assets. And whether there needs to be a stronger link between a fund’s promise of liquidity to its investors and the nature of the assets in which it is invested. The Financial Stability Board and IOSCO are now taking forward important work to address these broader potentially systemic risks. This issue illustrates more generally that as markets innovate and market-based finance develops we need to remain very alert to possible systemic implications and keep our eye on the management of risk. The UK exit from the European Union  I have discussed the fundamental challenges around ethics and risk that are crucial to building societal trust in and support for modern, international financial markets. I am however conscious that I am the guest tonight of the Association for Financial Markets in Europe and the clue is in the entire name.

More recently, the same data have suggested that the renewed lockdown measures in autumn 2020 and January 2021 had a much smaller adverse impact on economic activity. Harnessing non-standard data not only requires new technologies, techniques and skills, but also increases the need for multi-disciplinary teams. This is particularly true for unstructured data. While many financial market participants already use text analytics and natural language processing regularly, new ‘deep learning’ methods allow for much more than textual analysis of policy statements, minutes and transcripts. Voice analysis, for instance, makes it possible to study the tone and emotions associated with policy communication during press conferences. 10 These rapid advances in artificial intelligence are also largely the result of the tremendous growth in data, which – combined with a massive increase in computing power – can be used to train deep learning algorithms. The logical next step is to combine artificial intelligence with process automation. Businesses have used automation for many years but its benefits have become more apparent during the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike other forms of automation, process automation combined with artificial intelligence can not only execute business processes but also decide dynamically if and how a given process should be executed. Another notable automation trend is the rise in electronic trading tools, such as ‘execution algorithms’, or EAs. Such algorithms are designed to trade a predefined amount according to a set of pre-programmed instructions.
Given how significant the monetary system is, it is only right and proper that the associated developments are also the subject of regular public debate. With this conference dedicated exclusively to the issue of sound money, you are making an important contribution in this regard. Sound money is a fragile accomplishment, and is thus essentially always at threat. However, against the backdrop of the global financial crisis, concerns that our good money could turn bad have increased markedly across broad sections of society in recent years. On the one hand, this is understandable. Central banks’ crisis management has led to an extraordinary expansion in money supply and interest rates are at record lows – in the past, these phenomena have often been indications of imminent inflation and thus currency depreciation. On the other hand, it is a demonstrable fact that the value of money has never been as stable as it has been in the past 20 years (cf. chart 1). Viewed from this perspective, central banks’ expansionary monetary policies have simply satisfied the enormous demand for central bank money. The strength of this demand is actually testament to a high level of trust in central banks. The fact that inflation has been held in check for so long may also explain the increasing popularity of ideas from an entirely different perspective. The proponents of modern monetary theory would like to see central banks being put at the service of state financing.

BANK of ZAMBIA  KEYNOTE SPEECH LAUNCH OF THE 2019 WORLD SAVINGS DAY BY  DR DENNY H. KALYALYA, GOVERNOR, BANK OF ZAMBIA  InterContinental Hotel, Lusaka 31st October 2019, Lusaka, Zambia  KEYNOTE SPEECH BY DR DENNY KALYALYA, GOVERNOR, BANK OF ZAMBIA AT THE 2019 WORLD SAVINGS DAY EVENT ON 31ST OCTOBER 2019 AT THE INTERCONTINENTAL HOTEL, LUSAKA             The Chief Executive - Securities and Exchange Commission The Registrar and CEO – Pensions and Insurance Authority The Chairperson – Bankers Association of Zambia Senior Government Officials here present Members of the Diplomatic Corps Chief Executive Officers and Senior Private Sector Representatives Representatives from education institutions Members of the Media here present Pupils and students here present, and May I just say, Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen  I am delighted to officiate at this official launch of the 2019 World Savings Day under the theme: ‘Be Money Smart: Savings Give Life a Lift!’. As you may be aware, the World Savings Day is a global event celebrated to promote awareness on the importance of savings. In line with the National Strategy on Financial Education of 2012, Zambia has observed the World Savings Day since 2014. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, this year’s World Savings Day commemoration presents yet another opportunity for consumers to learn about financial products as well as how to select and assess appropriate financial products to maximise their usage for key life events.
Somewhat simplified, we can say that the money supply will once again become approximately proportional to the price level. A larger money supply in the future will lead, all else being equal, to a higher price level in the future. If the central bank could thus credibly commit to a permanent and lasting increase in the money supply, the expected future price level would rise. The problem here is, however, that there is no way for the central bank to make a credible commitment to a larger money supply in the future. There is nothing to prevent the central bank from reneging on such a commitment and reducing the money supply in the future in order to reduce future inflation and keep it in line with the inflation target. 16 Experience from Japan's period of "quantitative easing" also shows that the extreme expansion of approximately 70 per cent of the monetary base between March 2001 and March 2006 did not noticeably affect expectations of inflation and the future price level. 17 For example, the yen did not depreciate as it should otherwise have done. Firms and households clearly believed that the expansion of the monetary base was temporary and not permanent, which subsequently proved to be true. The monetary base fell back to normal levels when the interest rate was later raised to above zero. Other measures A number of other measures for addressing a situation with a zero interest rate have been proposed.

For this to function in practice it is necessary that all actors are willing to share relevant information so that the ESRB can perform its tasks properly. However, sharing information, although simple in theory, often turns out to be difficult in practice. Secondly, the risk assessments and recommendations need to be well-understood and accepted. This will require efficient communication. The issuance of warnings and recommendations is one way to communicate, either in public or in private. So far, there have been press conferences after the General Board’s meetings. Under the ESRB regulations, the ESRB is also required to publish an annual report. This report will be presented by the chair of the ESRB to the European Parliament and the Council in an annual hearing. But there is a clear need to further develop the ESRB communication. This is important, not only to legitimise the work of the ESRB but also to increase public awareness of systemic risk and macro-prudential policy. The ESRB could make a substantial contribution to promoting discussions in this field, both nationally and at the international level. Thirdly, Member States must be willing to accept warnings and recommendations from the ESRB. This may perhaps be the most difficult objective to achieve. Accepting warnings and recommendations may be difficult to accept when there is a political cost. It is therefore vital that the ESRB proves its independence and that it can express its views even when politically inconvenient.
The ECB is a novel and unique institution and in the performance of its tasks it is still navigating uncharted waters. Take, for example, the differing impact of monetary policy on economic activity in the different euro area Member States, which demands a well-balanced and comprehensive consideration of the precise timing and magnitude of interest rate decisions. The ECB must formulate a single monetary policy for an economic area made up of 11 distinct national economic policy jurisdictions. Our monetary policy decisions must thus always be oriented towards the conditions of this currency zone as a whole, since monetary policy by its nature is one and indivisible. Precisely this is our Treaty mandate. The ECB must develop into a truly European institution and we are making good progress in that direction. However, developing a wider perception of the euro area as an entity appears more complicated. Certainly, there are some areas where awareness of a single “euro area economy” is well developed. The financial market operators, for instance, appear to have adapted very quickly to the reality of the euro. The extensive recourse to the more favourable financing opportunities in the now more unified financial market or the ongoing consolidation in the banking sector bear witness to this shift of perception from the national to the European level. In this context, allow me to add the following observation.

5 Yet more sources of potential funding pressure have emerged from greater activity in capital markets, such as the pipeline risk that arises from being unable to offload leveraged loans and warehouses of loans awaiting securitisation when unfavourable market conditions prevail. And banks are also subject to the risk of exposures previously passed on to third parties flowing back to them, for example when sub-prime residential mortgage-backed securities are “put back” to the originator should they be found to breach certain credit criteria. Finally, banks are also exposed to the risks of a decline in asset market liquidity and falls in market prices through the potential for higher collateral or margin requirements. These may substantially raise the level of funding a bank requires on a day-today basis. 5  Institute for International Finance: “Principles of Liquidity Risk Management” March 2007. BIS Review 50/2008  5  As emphasised in a recent report by the Senior Supervisors Group, 6 banks need to develop a comprehensive approach to the management of liquidity risk to ensure that it is in line with the bank’s overall risk appetite. One strong recommendation in the report is that financial organisations develop and apply a systematic policy of internal charging for liquidity risk. In particular, banks need to ensure that risk decisions made by front office traders price appropriately the liquidity risk generated by new products and business lines, rather than treating it as a “free good” or overhead to be managed centrally by the treasury function.