samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Needless to say that the decision to undertake an in-depth assessment of our experience does not necessarily imply that substantial changes are contemplated. Successful technical framework The launch of the euro on the financial markets, on 1 January 1999, has been an indisputable success from a technical point of view. This is a great achievement since many observers doubted of the immediate success of a technical challenge of such a magnitude. Three orientations still shape this success: •  the monetary policy framework includes a set of instruments chosen with a view to observing the principles of market orientation, equal treatment, simplicity, and transparency. The decentralisation of operations has undoubtedly contributed to the smooth functioning of the framework. Maintaining a close contact between commercial banks and their national central banks has helped financial markets to quickly adopt the harmonised practices  2  BIS Review 11/2003  relating to open market operations, eligible collateral for credit operations and minimum reserve systems. •  operational efficiency is highlighted by the precise adjustment of banking liquidity and effective steering of short-term interest rates; the Eurosystem has demonstrated this th efficiency, in the days after the tragic events of 11 September 2001, by acting quickly and by ensuring a smooth and orderly functioning of the European financial markets. Here again, doubts had been previously raised on the ability of the Governing Council to make decisions swiftly. •  security is provided by the procedures and systems implemented, both for the execution of inter-bank transactions, and vis-à-vis large-value payments.

This is understandable because, under the prolonged period of quantitative easing by the major central banks in the advanced economies, bank deposits and bonds offer rather low and unattractive interest income. As for the stock market, the volatility in share prices will expose the retirees to significant market risks. As a result, there can be a fairly large group of retirees who find them not having enough cash flows to support a decent retirement life, despite the fact that the properties they own and occupy are worth quite a lot. 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  At the same time, their cash savings are basically left idle, yielding very little, if any, cash flow income. Many old folks would feel apprehensive to dip into the principals of their bank savings to meet daily expenses, as this would expose them to the uncertain but rather scary longevity risk. This situation is not unique in Hong Kong as there are many places that have similar problems. So it may be useful if I share with you the Hong Kong experiment in helping this group of retirees through some market based and financially sustainable solutions. HKMC and Market-based Financial Solutions for Retirees 4. These market based retirement protection solutions are developed and operated by the Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation (HKMC), which was set up in 1997 and is fully owned by the Government through the Exchange Fund managed by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA).
From taking prompt action to prevent the economy from overheating to acting just as promptly to avoid deterioration. In this dilemma, we have always opted for a medium- to long-run look over the short-term ups and downs, and therefore considered all the risks involved. So far this has allowed us to properly anticipate events and stick to what we believe has been the right monetary policy. The international conjuncture puts us to the test; we have identified many risks in this area. Over the months they have increased in both variety and origins. We know that we are prepared to face them in the best way possible. It is impossible to be immune. In fact, a small open economy like Chile is always subject to the vagaries of the international economy: it could not be otherwise. However, policy makers should be able to overcome them without major setbacks. There are also challenges within our borders, especially doubts about the evolution of a number of variables, such as employment and consumption, among others. It is precisely this medium- to long-term vision what helps us not to make hasty decisions. We have said that we are ready to take action if necessary, but overreacting to one particular event would be tantamount to throwing away the well-earned credibility of the Central Bank, which is a fundamental anchor to achieve our goal of safeguarding the stability of the price level and the financial system.

1  3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  3  The combination of these factors means that US developments have significant spillovers onto both the trade performance and the financial conditions of countries even with relatively limited direct exposure to the US economy. These dynamics are now increasing the risks of a global liquidity trap. In particular, the IMFS is structurally lowering the global equilibrium interest rate, r*, by: -  feeding a global savings glut, as EMEs defensively accumulate reserves of safe US dollar assets against the backdrop of an inadequate and fragmented global financial safety net;  -  reducing the scale of sustainable cross border flows, and as a result lowering the rate of global potential growth; and  -  fattening of the left-hand tail and increasing the downside skew of likely economic outcomes. In an increasingly integrated world, global r* exerts a greater influence on domestic r*.2 As the global equilibrium rate falls, it becomes more difficult for domestic monetary policy makers everywhere to provide the stimulus necessary to achieve their objectives. These dynamics are directly relevant to the current risks of a global slowdown. At present, there are relatively few fundamental imbalances in terms of capacity constraints or indebtedness that would of themselves portend a recession.3 However, the combination of structural imbalances at the heart of the IMFS itself and protectionism are threatening global momentum.
Many critiques had pointed out, and the technical staff in the Bank had experienced, that the Bank could not succeed in its main task of taming inflation and bringing about price stability, if it was saddled with other tasks that would go against its main objective. Hence, there emerged a general consensus that the central bank should do only what it can do effectively and not otherwise. That consensus required the Central Bank to pursue a single objective, viz., the attainment of price stability. Following this consensus that emerged through the consultative process involved in the modernization, the technical staff of the Bank proposed an amendment to the Monetary Law by mandating the Bank with the task of attaining two core objectives. They were the attainment of both “price stability” and “financial system stability”. When the draft law was submitted to the then Governor, Mr. A. S Jayawardena, for clearance, he had changed the “price stability” to “economic and price stability”. The puzzled and bewildered technical staff flocked into his room seeking a clarification, since it was not in line with the accepted international trend. The writer recalls that even the Resident Representative of the IMF too was puzzled by this seemingly inappropriate mandate being added to the Bank’s objectives. But, Mr. Jayawardena, assuming his usual erudite and serious posture, offered a different explanation which had never occur red to the technical staff.

But, if the subsidy is financed by incurring a loss elsewhere, it does not help to fight inflation. That is because at the place where the loss is incurred, there exists a deficit supply creating pressures for prices to rise. Similarly, price controls may keep the cost of living index under control. But, as long as there is excess demand in the macro economy, it does not help to contain inflation. Then, what about negative supply shocks such as a temporary fall in the output of agricultural products or increases in the prices of imported goods? They would reduce the real aggregate supply creating an excess demand in the macro economy. It would lead to the increase in the prices of certain consumer goods raising the cost of living of those who consume them. But, that is not inflation. For these one-off events to become inflation, the nominal aggregate demand should also rise continuously over the real aggregate supply. In other words, the macro economy should be characterized by the presence of an excess demand for goods and services. The elimination of this excess demand is the path for curing the malady of inflation. When there is no excess demand or excess supply, then, the macro economy is said to be in balance. Such a balance eliminates the pressure on prices to change. The public having observed the general stability in the overall price level would form low expectations on future changes in the prices. This would lead to future price stability as well.
3 Larry Summers in particular warned that the Federal Reserve’s scope to cut interest rates would be too limited  to effectively deal with a recession, see for instance Summers (2016). 4 See, for instance, Lundvall (2020) for a review of the factors behind the fall in real interest rates. 2 [15]  What does an inflation forecast below the target entail? So how should one interpret the fact that the Riksbank is forecasting an inflation rate below the target? One interpretation has been that “the Riksbank has abandoned the inflation target”. If this merely means that we accept that inflation will not quite reach 2 per cent within the coming years, then it is of course true — this is after all what we are forecasting. However, I want to make it clear that it is certainly not true that we have abandoned the target in a general sense and are focusing on something else. What worries me somewhat is that in some quarters the view seems to be that the inflation target has become obsolete. The argument is that the inflation target was useful for bringing down inflation from the overly high levels it was fluctuating around earlier, but once we attained a low inflation rate, the target has no further purpose and might as well be abandoned. However, the purpose of an inflation target is not just to prevent high inflation, but also to ensure that inflation does not become too low.

Do they need to adapt to the new situation and, if so, how? One important question is, as I see it: “How can we ensure that monetary policy continues to have scope to counteract recessions and increased unemployment?” Keeping inflation low and stable certainly has a value in itself. But I have also argued here that maintaining the inflation target is very important for being able to use the interest rate as a monetary policy tool in the future. Thus, the fact that the Riksbank’s forecasts do not quite attain 2 per cent should not be regarded as an indication that we have abandoned the target and intend to focus on something else in future. It merely shows that it will take longer time to attain the target than we usually assume. The policy will in accordance with this remain expansionary, with the tools at our disposal today. But in the situation that has arisen, it is also fairly obvious that fiscal policy needs to play a larger stabilising role than has been the case in recent decades. One idea that I would like to at least air here is that fiscal policy may not merely provide support for monetary policy with regard to counteracting recessions, but also explicitly contribute to maintaining confidence in the inflation target. The inflation target is, after all, not merely the Riksbank’s target but a societal target with a political majority behind it.
First, by virtue of their role as providers of liquidity to the banking system and their involvement in payment systems, central banks have a vested interest in the quality of their counterparties. Any developments that could affect the financial health of their counterparties are of direct interest to a central bank, not least because the inability of the former to honour their commitments would have negative financial implications for the central bank. Furthermore, instability in the financial system could hinder central banks from successfully pursuing their other objectives, particularly the achievement of price stability through monetary policy measures. Indeed, monetary policy can only be implemented effectively if the financial system is stable, for only then can financial intermediaries respond to changes in interest rates and in liquidity conditions engineered by the central bank, and thus transmit these impulses on to non-financial intermediaries. At the same time, by pursuing price stability central banks contribute directly to financial stability, since a stable price environment reduces volatility in financial variables and ensures the smooth functioning of markets. From a central bank perspective, it is also evident that a healthy financial system contributes to stability in the exchange rate particularly where, in countries like Malta, a fixed exchange regime coexists with the absence of capital controls. Thus, in a situation where there are concerns about the robustness of the financial infrastructure, the regulatory framework or the integrity of financial intermediaries, the external account may be undermined through sizeable outflows of capital.

This has included convening topic-specific roundtables and seminars, supporting analytical and policy initiatives, and providing periodic updates on hot topics in the sector. What have we learned? Some tentative conclusions  The work undertaken by the Accelerator has been of significant value, both for the Bank and, we believe, for the broader FinTech community. For the Bank, we have gained first-hand experience of a range of new technologies, helping us to evaluate their application both to the Bank’s own functions and in the wider market. Our work on DLT has helped us start to think through how the financial networks of the future may be able to operate in safer and more efficient ways, and how we can ensure they can continue to benefit from access to central bank money. Our work on data analysis has thrown light on how we can manage ever larger data sets to monitor the economy and the financial system in real time and draw out patterns that might help us set better policy or spot the next crisis coming before it happens. And our work on machine learning has helped us take the first baby steps towards engaging with that data in a more interactive way, putting computers alongside our staff to help them form the judgments on which monetary and financial stability depend.
This leads to a voluntary allegiance of the countries of Europe, initiated by a number of great Europeans, amongst whom Carlo Ciampi, who - in my mind - has also shown that central bankers can become visionary politicians ; but then Carlo Ciampi was not an ordinary central banker, but already a visionary in his days as Governor of the Banca d’Italia. Carlo Ciampi and many others were convinced that Europe could only prosper in unity. For the first time in the history of Europe, nation states voluntarily decided to transfer part of their sovereignty to a ‘higher’ collective body, nowadays referred to as the European Union. In this respect, Rome is also a symbolic place for the Governing Council to meet, as the first Treaty, establishing the European Economic Community, was concluded here - 45 years ago - and hence bears its name. Finally, this meeting of the Governing Council takes place in a nation that belongs to the foundingcountries of the European Community, and which has always been among the staunchest supporters of the European integration process, as a road towards peace and prosperity. Admittedly, when the so-called Maastricht Treaty was concluded - in 1992 - the expectation was that only a small group of European countries would be in the position to adopt the euro. For some, this small group would not include Italy.

Growth in compensation per employee fell slightly in the last quarter of 2018 from 2.5% to 2.2%, but remains just above its long-term average. Unit labour cost growth rose to 2.4% in the same period, partly driven by a fall in productivity growth reflecting the resilience of employment growth to the economic slowdown. The key question – and one currently being asked in many advanced economies – is why these labour cost pressures are not already being reflected in rising prices. Underlying inflation has moved broadly sideways over the last year, repeatedly falling short of expectations and staying below the levels recorded before 2008. Academic literature based on US data has responded by casting doubt on the link between labour costs and inflation, in particular at shorter horizons. Studies find no conclusive results on whether, empirically, labour costs tend to precede or follow prices. 10 This has led to a debate as to whether “cost-push” models from wages to prices can still accurately describe the inflation process. There are certainly a number of forces at work today that make forecasting inflation more complex, not least the effects of globalisation and digitalisation. Yet research by ECB staff finds that, unlike in the United States, the structural conditions for pass-through from wages to prices remain in place in the euro area.
Interest rates of foreign currency deposits demonstrated adverse tendency to that of Lek deposits during 2004. This market was impacted by rise of LIBOR and EURIBOR interests in international markets. The Bank of Albania has successfully managed the banking system liquidity, using its framework of monetary policy instruments. Aiming at improving its operational framework and easing the functioning of Albania Interbank Payment System (AIPS), the Bank of Albania approved the Regulation “On intraday credit” on March 2004. The use of this credit, which started in May, has assisted in meeting the needs for effecting commercial banks’ intraday payments. 6  BIS Review 38/2005  Banking system performance Financial position of the banking system at end of 2004 is presented as good. Main profitability indicators have generally had a steady performance, reflecting the prudential overall banking system growth and the activity extension of most banks through more products and larger presence in the market. The banking system evidenced positive net income over 2004, about Lek 5.11 billion or about 0.66 billion more than in the previous year. This figure constitutes 0.66 percent of GDP accrued for 2004. Good position of the banking system is reflected even in the main profitability indicators, RoA and RoE. These indicators have rested in high levels; furthermore, they have undergone a slight growth in comparison to the previous years. This indicates that the net result growth was not only due to banking system assets growth but also due to productivity growth of assets and capital.

The main role in creating the inflation rate during 2004 has been played by the “Rent, water, fuels, energy” group, unlike the past years when this role was played by the “Foodstuffs and non-alcoholics” group. The price index of the “Rent, water, fuels and energy” group marked high annual growth rates over 2004. Despite the increase of the energy price by 31.2 percent in February of this year, this group recorded a rise even in the price of rent and imputed rent. The annual inflation rate of the “Foodstuffs and non-alcoholics” group has been a negative one during May-November, due to the growth of domestic agricultural production, including the production of greenhouses. The positive inflation performance during the last two years was facilitated by the absence of shocks, the positive developments of productive capacities and the consolidation of macroeconomic and macrofinancial indicators. The concern that oil price rise in the international markets would have caused a consumer price rise even in Albania, has not become a reality. The appreciation of exchange rate in Lek against US dollar during 2004 has eased the effect of oil price rise in the international markets. Also, the inflation value of the two main partner countries, Italy and Greece, has been low, compared to inflation rates in Albania. As a consequence, imported inflationary pressures did not accompany Albania’s trade activity. The favourable macroeconomic developments during 2004 have provided an appropriate environment for the inflation control.
This type of developments could create vulnerabilities in the real estate and construction industry, or in those households searching for a new home. It is also worth noting that the current combination of higher property prices, low long-term interest rates, favorable lending standards and higher volatility of other financial asset categories, configure a scenario that could motivate an increase in financial investment in the sector, potentially exacerbating these risks. Therefore, we have stressed how important it is that agents consider these risk factors when evaluating their investment and lending decisions in the sector. In particular, these decisions need to bear in mind that past price increases are no guarantee of further increases in the future. We believe that raising this type of alert, thus increasing the amount of information available for risk assessment, is part of our role of promoting the normal functioning of the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  financial system. We believe that the extended discussion that has taken place on the topics of the real estate sector is extremely valuable. Another risk factor requiring close attention is the evolution of medium-sized banks. Recently, credits granted by these banks have increased faster than those of other banks (figure 8). There is certainly a positive side to it, as it implies lower concentration of risks in the system. However, its growth dynamic could become a source of vulnerabilities.

According to the World Bank, 170 million people in the ten member states of ASEAN with mobile phones remain unbanked. Some 53 million people still receive agriculture payments in cash. Financial technology or FinTech is making significant headway in bringing these under-served markets into the formal financial economy. Example: Digital financial transactions have increased by 30% in Thailand from 2014 to 2017. The FinTech revolution in Southeast Asia is being driven by three forces. First, there is a thriving FinTech start-up scene in ASEAN. These start-ups are building large digital businesses and changing the face of financial services while doing so. Take for example Wing in Cambodia, Wave Money in Myanmar, Momo in Vietnam, and MatchMove in Singapore. They have quickly scaled by providing unbanked individuals with the means to store value and transact digitally. And by extending their services to SMEs, these FinTech firms are facilitating the digitalisation of entire supply chains. Second, the advent of pervasive e-commerce platforms has provided an Asian model for financial inclusion. These platforms rapidly develop a consumer base and offer a broad stack of services, expanding into areas such as payments and credit. E-commerce platforms are among the best-funded ASEAN businesses. Grab, Go-Jek, Carousell, and Lazada have together raised nearly $ billion in 2018. According to a study by Google and Temasek, e-commerce is projected to grow explosively in ASEAN, from $ billion in 2015 to $ billion in 2025.