samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Bank of England  Page 7  Successive MPR forecasts in 2022 have remained too pessimistic about the near-term path of unemployment; rather than slowing as demand in the economy has slowed, demand for labour has remained resilient, at least until recently. Unemployment fell further and at 3.6% in the three months to September remains close to its recent 50-year low. Although labour demand has eased more recently, the level of vacancies remains high and recruitment difficulties remain widely reported in surveys of firms. This sustained tightness has been driven by a much weaker recovery in the participation rate post-pandemic, in marked contrast to most OECD countries4. Evidence for this ‘participation puzzle’ for the UK only emerged in the spring5. Six months on, the causes remain unclear though the latest survey evidence suggests some of this inactivity reflects people with long term sickness and those who have decided to retire early. Many more people moving into inactivity now say they don’t want a job compared to the period after the global financial crisis6. This points to the role of labour supply effects rather than cyclical weakness in labour demand and indicates that this increase may be persistent, as there is a much lower flow rate into employment compared to those who want a job. As such it is one example of a pattern for recent shocks to have as much or more impact on the supply side than the demand side of the economy, which further complicates assessment of the economy and the appropriate policy response7.

If quality of institutions is proxied by the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicator (which includes six broad dimensions of governance: Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, Control of Corruption, Voice and Accountability, and Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism), there has hardly been any convergence of the CEE region towards Germany. Notable exception are the Baltic countries where we have seen positive developments also in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. A very similar conclusion can be drawn when looking at the human capital quality, not only that the CESEE countries lag substantially behind the EU countries that achieve the best results in PISA tests in Math and Science (Finland, Sweden, Austria, and Germany), but the developments over time are also not encouraging as in many countries the results actually worsened during the last decade. So, one can raise the question of how did we manage to  6  converge at a relatively high pace before the crisis, or why convergence continues, with such institutions and human capital? On one side, such developments are worrisome, but, on the other, they give us the opportunity to streamline reforms. Gains from reforms can be substantial. The European Commission estimated that structural reforms that close only half the gap with best performers in different areas (market competition and regulation, R&D expenditure, skill structure, tax structure, labour market participation, unemployment benefit ‘generosity’ and active labour market policies), which is not overambitious, could have significant macroeconomic effects.
Figure 9 Latin America (*) 2017 growth outlook  Headline inflation  (annual change, percent)  (annual change, percent)  5  5  11  11  4  4  9  9  3  3  7  7  2  2  5  5  1  1  3  3  0 mar.15 Mar.15  0  1  1  mar.16 Mar.16 Argentina  mar.17 Mar.17 Brazil Chile  14 Colombia  15  16 Mexico  17 Peru  (*) As per responses to Bloomberg survey. Source: Central Bank of Chile. 17  Table 2 International scenario 2015  2016 Mar'17 Report  Terms of trade Trading partners' GDP World GDP at PPP World GDP at market ex change rates United States China Eurozone Latin America (excl.

Bank of France reports industrial output continued to increase in all sectors in February 1997 BANK OF FRANCE, MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY, 17/3/97. In February, according to the business leaders surveyed by the Banque de France, industrial output continued to increase in all sectors. The capacity utilization rate rose slightly. Overall demand grew at a moderate pace. There was strong demand from foreign markets, particularly from northern Europe, including Germany and the United Kingdom, and from the United States and Asia. The rise in the dollar and in sterling reinforced the competitiveness of French products. Growth in demand on the domestic market was much more moderate. Order books are deemed to be satisfactory in all sectors, with the exception of the food-processing industry, where they declined slightly and appear to be insufficient. Inventories of finished products are still somewhat above normal levels. In particular, they are considered to be above desired levels in the food-processing, intermediate goods and automobile sectors. In the coming months activity should continue to increase in all sectors, with the exception of the automobile sector. Commodity prices were stable overall. However, price rises were recorded in certain parts of the intermediate goods industry, such as the rubber and plastics, metal-working, and wood-processing sectors, and in the food processing industry owing to the appreciation of the dollar. Intense competition prevented these increases from being passed on to sales prices, which scarcely changed, except in the automobile sector, where they declined. The business leaders surveyed continued to be cautious in their investment plans.
On the whole, our discussions were quite fruitful, with some of the issues raised such as governance structure, compliance with statutory requirements, prudence in lending operations, capitalization, and others related to deposit and credit concentration were deeply discussed. The commercial banks also gave valuable comments which were very useful in resolving some of the effects of the global financial crisis on our economy. Your Excellency, distinguished ladies and gentlemen, you may recall that six pilot community banks were established by the Bank of Sierra Leone. However, given the problems encountered by the community banks, a committee comprising the chairmen of the community banks was setup by the Bank of Sierra Leone to review the poor performance of these banks. As a result of the study, corrective action was taken by the central bank in collaboration with the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) to develop a rescue plan of action to comprehensively address distressed community banks and enhance the efficiency of their operations. As part of our currency management drive, the Bank of Sierra Leone issued on 14th May 2010, a new four-note series of resized banknotes to improve security features and help denomination-recognition for the visually impaired and illiterate. The design themes and portraits of the previous series (which date back to early 1990s) have been retained, but the Bank has taken the opportunity to make the notes more secure.

Plantin, G, Sapra, H and H S Shin (2008), “Fair Value Accounting and Financial Stability”, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business Research Paper 08–15. Simonson, D G and G H Hempel (1993), “Banking Lessons from the Past: The 1938 Regulatory Agreement Interpreted”, Journal of Financial Services Research, pages 249–267. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7
As I mentioned before, experience has shown, that in the long run, it is very difficult to maintain soft exchange rate pegs with the free movement of capital across borders. Iceland shares this experience with many other countries during the post-liberalisation face. The response to this has been the observed tendency to adopt hard pegs in the form of monetary unions or currency boards or to go in the direction of floating. As so many other countries, Iceland adopted the second route. This was done in March 2001 by a joint declaration by the government and the Central Bank. The principal objective as stated in the declaration, is to keep inflation as close as possible to 2½ per cent. Should inflation deviate from this target by more than 1½ percentage points in either direction, the Bank is to provide the government with a written public account explaining what caused this deviation, how the Bank intends to respond and how long it expects that it will take for inflation to return to within the targeted inflation limits. In the wake of this declaration, the Icelandic Parliament adopted a new legislation on the Central Bank, giving it one overriding goal, i.e. price stability, and full independence to use its instruments to achieve it. The new framework was immediately subjected to a baptism of fire. Overheating in the economy and the fall of the króna had rekindled inflation.

HKMA, as both a banking regulator and market facilitator, has the role of creating a conducive environment for this to happen. Therefore, we have launched a new Fintech 2025 strategy recently and will work hand in hand with the industry along this fintech journey. 18. Of course, we are mindful that technology can be a double-edged sword. If done properly, technology can enhance financial inclusion. But there are always risks. For example, the improper use of artificial intelligence and machine learning may lead to biased outcomes and even exclusion. Ill-constructed “model-based” lending could unfairly discriminate against some SMEs. And from a conduct risk perspective, customers could be advised to invest in products not in their best interests. Therefore, it is necessary to properly manage such risks and ensure fairness in the algorithms through rigorous validation and testing. 19. In other words, building a smarter financial system is not just about how much technology content we inject into it. What is more important is whether the outcome for customers is more inclusive and efficient, and whether banks can better manage the risks involved. 20. If we look at another key development priority pursued by the HKMA – Green and Sustainable 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Finance – similar financial exclusion concerns could also arise. It is important that when we gear towards a greener financial system, we should also have financial inclusion in mind. This is the third role of the financial system that I want to talk about. 21.
IS is an aggregate demand schedule, with demand a decreasing function of both the policy rate, R, and a macroprudential instrument, K. PC is an expectations-augmented Phillips curve, in which inflation expectations are assumed to be anchored at the inflation target. 6 For any given set of shocks to aggregate demand and supply, the inflation target can be achieved by the set of pairs of R and K along the downward sloping schedule PS (for Price Stability) in the righthand diagram. An increase in demand resulting from, say, an increase in the propensity to invest, would shift this schedule out to the right. 6  6  In the literature, credit frictions and macroprudential policies can also affect potential output; see for instance Vasco Cúrdia and Michael Woodford (2010), “Credit spreads and monetary policy.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42(S1), pp3–35. For simplicity of exposition, I abstract from such effects here. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Turn now to the credit market. Conventional macroeconomic analyses of the market for loanable funds tend to focus on the flow of funds from saving households to businesses undertaking capital expenditures. But, as Chart 9 makes clear, such lending constitutes only a small fraction of the assets held by UK banks. The vast majority of loans are instead provided to finance the acquisition of existing assets, especially real estate. This should be borne in mind when contemplating the factors behind the demand and supply of credit, shown in the left-hand panel of Chart 10 as CD and CS respectively.

Seven years of unparalleled macroeconomic stability have been followed by seven years characterised by financial instability and a deep recession. It was a salutary lesson for those, like me, who thought we had successfully cracked the problem of steering the economy, and highlighted the need to put in place an effective prudential framework to complement monetary policy. Policy making today consequently looks a much more complex problem than it did fourteen years ago. In Genesis, following his interpretation of Pharaoh’s Dream, Joseph is made the most powerful bureaucrat in Egypt, in which position he ensures that enough grain is hoarded during the seven years of plenty to provide sustenance during the seven years of famine that followed. That is a parable on the value of prudence that the central bankers of the future would do well not to forget. Thank you for your attention! 7  8  Jeremy Stein (2013) “Overheating in Credit Markets: Origins, Measurement, and Policy Responses”, speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 7 February. BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  14  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  15
Mr. George assesses how sustainable the current rate of growth of the UK economy is Speech given by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mr. E.A.J. George, at the Chartered Institute of Bankers in Scotland Biennial Dinner in Edinburgh on 20/1/97. Mr. Chairman, the last time we came together for this great occasion, two years ago, I was pleased to be able to report to you that the British economy was making encouraging progress. We had, already then, seen very nearly three years of continuous and reasonably steady economic growth, which had produced a gradual fall in unemployment. And this steady expansion had brought few of the usual tell-tale signs of emerging imbalance between overall demand in the economy and our supply-side capacity to meet that demand. Our external current account was close to balance. And underlying retail price inflation was then lower than it had been for a generation. Even so, we had - as you will recall - begun to apply a touch on the monetary policy tiller to avoid being blown off course by rising world commodity prices at a time when domestic activity had already gathered pace. I am delighted to be with you again this evening and to be able to report that this encouraging progress continues. Output has now been growing, continuously and reasonably steadily - at an annual rate of 2.2% - for very nearly five years.

Going forward, the pace of Asian regional economic and financial integration will gain momentum, driven by structural factors, by the conscious policy to put in place the enabling environment and by the benefits derived that are mutually reinforcing. The evidence in this decade has demonstrated that a more integrated and cohesive Asia contributes towards more balanced global growth, while a more resilient Asia contributes to greater global financial stability. While a more connected world in this new phase of globalisation will bring new vulnerabilities, it also brings with it the promise of new opportunities, new relationships and partnerships in the world economy, and thus, new prospects for a greater shared prosperity. 4  BIS Review 94/2010
There has been a limited pass-through of the peso depreciation in to final prices, but no spillovers in medium-term inflation expectations or nominal wages. Given the recent slowdown of output, we expect some increase in the amount of slack in the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  economy that should help to contain second round effects of this transitory inflation shock but we remain vigilant. Monetary policy has turned toward a more expansionary instance. The monetary policy rate (MPR) has been lowered by 100 basis points in recent months to 4%, and the Bank has pointed out in its latest communication that it will assess the possibility of introducing additional cuts according to the evolution of domestic and external macroeconomic conditions and their implications for the inflation outlook. This response of the Chilean economy to the changes in terms of trade and external financial conditions accurately reflects the operation of our policy regime. Over the years, the Central Bank has shown its commitment to take action to safeguard price stability. We have been consistent over time and we have built a credibility record that gives us room to use monetary policy in a counter-cyclical fashion when it is advisable. Our policy framework allows for timely adjustments of the real exchange rate and the interest rate, which provide the right signals to keep the domestic economy growing around potential, smooth the adjustment of the capital account, while inflation and inflationary expectations remains anchored. This makes a difference with our economic history.

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Interest rates remain low among several of our trading partners, even though they have been raised so far this year in a number of countries as a result of rising energy prices and higher consumer price inflation. In the US, there are now expectations that the interest rate has peaked, and that it will be lowered in the course of summer 2007. A rise in key rates is expected over the next year in the euro area, Sweden, the UK, Australia, Japan and Switzerland. One risk factor is that inflation in the US and the euro area may be higher than expected. In the event, interest rates internationally are likely to rise more than the current outlook would imply and curb growth among our trading partners. In the past two years, oil prices have doubled, measured in USD. With little spare production capacity, even minor disruptions in supply or demand can have a relatively strong impact on prices. It is likely that global growth will remain buoyant. This may contribute to keeping oil prices at a high level. Recently, oil prices have been around USD 70 per barrel. Brent Blend futures prices have also climbed and indicate that oil prices will remain high for several years to come. Prices for a number of other commodities – including natural gas and some metals – have also risen sharply in recent years. So far, high oil prices have not led to slower growth in the world economy.

1  Testimony of Ben S. Bernanke, Nomination hearing before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, November 15, 2005. 2  Remarks by Governor Edward M. Gramlich, Federal Reserve Board, “The Politics of Inflation Targeting”, Paris, France, May 26, 2005. BIS Review 80/2006  3  Norges Bank’s practice in this respect is in line with the recommendations of leading academics in the field of monetary policy, such as Professor Lars Svensson 3 : “… announcing the optimal projection – including the instrument-rate projection – and the analysis behind it would have the largest impact on private-sector expectations and be the most effective way to implement monetary policy.” Norges Bank’s interest rate projection is based on seeking to achieve an interest rate path that provides a reasonable balance between the objective of stabilising inflation at target and the objective of stabilising developments in output and employment within a reasonable time horizon, normally 1 – 3 years. Interest-rate setting is also assessed in the light of developments in property prices and credit. Norges Bank forecasts inflation, output and the interest rate simultaneously. There is considerable uncertainty associated with the estimates of capacity utilisation in the economy (the output gap), and there is no simple relationship between developments in capacity utilisation and developments in inflation. It cannot therefore be argued with great conviction that it is possible to identify one particular interest rate forecast that provides the indisputably “best” trade-off in monetary policy.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  Table 1: Participation rates by age cohort (per cent)  16-24 yrs 25-29 yrs 30-34 yrs 35-39 yrs 40-44 yrs 45-49 yrs 50-54 yrs 55-59 yrs 60-64 yrs 6569yrs 70-74 yrs 75+ yrs  Participation Rate in 1994  Participation Rate in 2007  Latest Participation Rate (2014Q1)  Annual average increase (19942007)  Annual average increase since 2007  72.30  66.77  65.75  -0.10  -0.14  83.45  84.41  93.05  0.02  0.03  82.58  84.37  93.64  0.04  0.06  84.08  84.38  93.60  0.01  0.06  86.02  86.15  92.80  -0.01  0.04  85.43  85.56  91.60  0.01  0.05  79.07  82.47  88.75  0.07  0.10  65.99  71.78  81.82  0.12  0.15  37.93  46.25  59.95  0.15  0.15  10.87  16.23  25.76  0.11  0.17  4.49  6.79  12.43  0.05  0.11  1.85  1.80  4.90  0.00  0.05  Source: Labour Force Survey and Bank calculations. 14  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Appendix: stylised description of labour market dynamics This appendix sets out a stylized description of recent labour market dynamics derived from a simple model. First, suppose firms employ labour 𝑁 to produce output 𝑌 = 𝑁1−𝛼 , where 1 − 𝛼 is the labour share of income. Firms pay a real wage of 𝑊.

The economy moves from point B to point C, so employment recovers (to above its pre-crisis equilibrium), but wages continue to fall. BIS central bankers’ speeches  15  Weak wage growth With some additional structure, the simple model above can be used to understand unemployment and wage inflation.23 If wages are adjusted infrequently (ie there is nominal wage stickiness), then the following relation between wage inflation, 𝜋 𝑤 , and unemployment can be derived: 𝑤 𝜋 𝑤 − 𝛽𝐸𝜋+1 = −𝜆𝜑(𝑢 − 𝑢�)  (WPC)  𝑤 captures expected inflation, 𝑢� is the ‘natural’ rate of unemployment (which can where 𝛽𝐸𝜋+1 vary over time) and 𝜆 is a parameter capturing the degree of wage stickiness. Equation (WPC) is the Wage Phillips Curve. For a given natural rate of unemployment, WPC traces out the relationship between wage growth and unemployment. Chart 9 contains a reducedform representation of the WPC, taken from Broadbent (2014). As that chart shows, outturns for wages in 2013 and 2014 were considerably below the past relationship, which would otherwise suggest that unemployment would be expected to be around 10% given the observed decline in wages. In light of equation (WPC), one way to interpret this is as there having been a decline in 𝑢�, the natural rate, such that a given rate of unemployment puts greater downward pressure on wages. Broadbent (2014) discusses Chart 9 further. 23  16  See Gali, J (2011), “The return on the wage Phillips curve”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(3), June.