samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
These two levels are so important that they have been given special “star status” in the monetary policy literature: The long-term real interest rate is normally called 𝒓𝒓∗ (”r-star”) and the long-term sustainable level of resource utilisation is known as the 𝒚𝒚∗ (“y star”). 5 I will llustrate why these two long-term levels play such an important role by using a so-called monetary policy rule. A monetary policy rule describes a suitable level for the policy rate based on a few factors. No central bank relies on one such rule in the actual policy rate decisions, but such a rule can function as a good benchmark for the policy rate. Different monetary policy rules are also used extensively in the academic literature, as they have been proved to describe the development of the policy rate relatively well, in particular under normal economic conditions. 6 One common monetary policy rule is the so-called Taylor rule. 7 There are different variations on this, but most often one uses a version that can be described with the following mathematical equation,  5 See, for instance, Powell (2018) and Tenreyro (2019). 6 See Jonsson and Katinic (2017) who show how well a monetary policy rule can describe the Swedish policy rate  since the inflation target was introduced. 7 See Taylor (1993).

That is certainly true of Estonia where the level of wages, inflation figures and the changes in productivity would indicate that economic stability is not affected as seriously as indicated by the current account figures taken alone. For instance, the CPI growth in Estonia and in the euro area was almost equal in the first half of 2003. According to the present estimates, Estonian CPI growth will remain at 1.5% in 2003. It could be said that recent inflation developments have been most encouraging. Although some temporary effects and weak external pressures have recently helped to ease the inflation pressures, the role of the domestic factors contributing to a steady disinflation process should not be underestimated. But at the same time it should not be forgotten that a gradual increase of price level is an inevitable result of real convergence under a fixed rate of exchange. It is a well-established fact that the income and price level of a given country are positively related. Thus, we believe that a small difference between Estonia's and Euro Area inflation would be natural taking into account the ongoing real convergence and the related productivity improvements. There have been no significant changes in the average wages and productivity figures (in QI the estimated real growth of productivity was 4.7%). The cumulative productivity growth in Estonia relative to the weighted average productivity growth of its main trading partners has clearly outpaced the real exchange rate appreciation.
Another important issue is the involvement of finance ministries in the crisis management framework. A High-Level Working Group, comprising representatives from the ministries of finance, central banks and banking supervisors, is working on concrete proposals for cooperation arrangements between the three authorities at EU level. As regards financial stability monitoring, the EU framework has been enhanced considerably in recent years. In this context, I would like to highlight the stability assessment of the EU banking sector, performed by the ESCB’s Banking Supervision Committee, and the comprehensive analysis of potential vulnerabilities in the euro area financial system as a whole, which was carried out as part of the ECB’s Financial Stability Review. In addition, the CEBS is expected to improve its internal exchange of information on individual institutions and groups. 2  BIS Review 18/2005  Markets I now turn to the second component of the financial system, the financial markets. The introduction of the euro and the measures adopted under the FSAP have spurred the integration of the European financial markets. Nevertheless, there continue to be varying degrees of integration. Wholesale money and bond markets tend to be relatively well integrated, but only the unsecured euro money market has reached a fully satisfactory level of integration. The integration of the market of debt securities has been significantly increased, although not yet reaching the level of the United States.

These countries have sought a return on their financial capital abroad by investing, for instance, in US treasuries. The increased demand for US treasury bonds has for a long time been pushing down long-term interest rates in the United States. In addition, the US central bank conducted expansionary monetary policy in connection with the recession at the beginning of the 2000s and in the years immediately following. The low interest rates have stimulated consumption and investment in the United States. They contributed in particular to house prices rising more quickly than household incomes. The rising stock market and house prices contributed to a reduction in household saving, which largely explains the rising current account deficit until the housing market bubble burst. However, the problems of a previously overheated housing market are not limited to the United States, they can also be found in a number of other countries. New forms of borrowing, including subprime loans, contributed to overheating in the US housing market During the years 2004 and 2005 new loan forms became increasingly common in the housing market in the United States, not least subprime loans. Subprime loans are loans aimed at households with low incomes. Often the lenders used very low interest rates during the first two years of the loan as an enticement. However, after this period the interest rates rose substantially. It is likely that the credit assessment of the households was not too comprehensive.
According to these figures, between 2015 and 2019 around 865 thousand people came to the country, which also has a significant effect on the demographics (figure 4). As we reported to this Commission last December, an immigration phenomenon of this magnitude has a strong effect on the labor force. Moreover, the immigrant population has a participation rate in the labor force of the order of 80% according to the 2017 Census, compared with the native population’s which is somewhat above 60% according to the same source. As we noted in a box in last December’s Report, the effects of immigration manifest through supply and demand channels that together generate an expansionary effect on output and have a limited inflationary impact. On one hand, the increase in population brings with it an increase in aggregate demand for consumer goods and services, pushing inflation upward. But, on the other hand, immigration expands the supply of labor, which moderates wage increases and reduces the marginal costs of companies, putting downward pressure on inflation. While over time the economy adjusts to accommodate the population increase, it is unclear which channel will dominate, that of higher aggregate demand or that of the increased labor force. This will depend on the propensity to save of the immigrant population (considering remittances), the willingness to work at different wage levels and how fast the capital stock will adjust in response to the larger scale of the economy.

(3) Yellow area shows annual CPI inflation using the 2013=100 basket (blue line) and the annual CPI inflation that is obtained by splicing said series (2013=100 basket) with the monthly variations of the 2018=100 basket starting in February 2018 (purple diamonds). Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE). 15  1
The one thing you can be reasonably sure of as you look ahead to 2020 is that you will be confronted with a continuing challenge to keep ahead of the competition in your existing industries and that you will need to be able to respond to changing demands and embrace new activities to replace those where your present comparative advantage becomes impossible to sustain - as is unfortunately bound to happen in some cases. So my first point is that the market economy is with us to stay, with all that that implies. We've also learned that one of the conditions that are necessary if a market economy is to function effectively is a framework of macro-economic stability. For much of the post-war period macro-economic policy - not just in this country, but including in this country - focussed heavily on the short-term management of aggregate demand in the economy. It paid too little attention to the underlying, supply-side, capacity of the economy to meet that demand. Faced with slow growth and rising unemployment both fiscal and monetary policy were used, in combination, to stimulate demand until accelerating inflation and a worsening balance of payments threatened to run out of hand, when the brakes were slammed on and everything went into reverse. The go-stop policy cycle in other words produced the familiar boom-bust business cycle. Over time this experience induced a pervasive short-termism in economic decision-making on the part of both businesses and consumers.

Eurobarometer surveys find cross-country majorities in favour of closer cooperation to end the crisis. And this is ultimately unavoidable, given the state of political union between countries that monetary union de facto creates. It is now a time for politicians to be bold and courageous, to recognise these trends, and to complete as soon as possible the great project begun 60 years ago towards “ever closer union”. Thank you for your attention. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches
From there, I strongly urge banks to work with your customers to take advantage of the good liquidity in both SOR and SORA markets in the next 6-12 months to proactively transition legacy contracts. 26 If we manage to front load this work early and transition the substantive bulk of legacy books by early 2022, this will leave ample time for us to deal with any residual tough legacy transactions. That would be a good place to be in, when we meet again this time next year. 27  Thank you very much, I wish you all fruitful discussions for the rest of this webinar. ***  [1] The Association of Banks in Singapore (ABS) is a non-profit organisation that represents the interests  of the commercial and investment banking community. The Singapore Foreign Exchange Market Committee (SFEMC) aims to foster the growth and development of Singapore as a leading global financial centre in Asia, with a specific focus on foreign exchange, money markets, fixed income and derivative markets. https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2021/pushing-ahead-with-sor-sora-transition-in-2021  6/7  12/02/2021  "Pushing Ahead with SOR-SORA Transition in 2021" - Keynote Speech by Mr Leong Sing Chiong, Deputy Managing Director (Markets …  [2] The Steering Committee for SOR & SIBOR Transition to SORA or SC-STS is an industry-led Steering  Committee tasked with overseeing the transition from SOR to SORA. The SC-STS is chaired by Mr Samuel Tsien, Group CEO of OCBC Bank and ABS Chairman. [3] See relevant announcements here .

https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2021/pushing-ahead-with-sor-sora-transition-in-2021  2/7  12/02/2021  "Pushing Ahead with SOR-SORA Transition in 2021" - Keynote Speech by Mr Leong Sing Chiong, Deputy Managing Director (Markets …  7 The overarching policy intent of the extended end-date has been made clear in the commentaries from authorities in the US and UK. The proposed extension will allow more time for the transition of legacy contracts, while the usage of LIBOR in new contracts is to cease as soon as possible. 8 US regulatory agencies [5] have stated that the use of USD LIBOR in new contracts a er 31 December 2021 would create safety and soundness risks, and this should cease as soon as practicable and latest by end-2021. In the UK, the Financial Conduct Authority will be consulting on an approach to prohibit some or all new use of LIBOR a er end-2021. This would likely be coordinated with similar measures across other key jurisdictions. 9 All these suggest that a er end-2021, new cash and derivatives contracts in these currencies will predominantly reference overnight near risk-free rates (RFRs), while LIBOR markets will decline in liquidity. 10  So what does this mean for our SGD benchmark transition eﬀorts? Key priorities for the SC-STS 11 The SC-STS has reviewed its key priorities and timelines against these developments and will be publishing later today an updated Transition Roadmap for 2021/2022.
And since its inception, the Bank has played a role in shaping the development of the financial sector in the UK and using its influence to promote financial stability. For much of its history, that role was not one of statutory regulation and supervision. The Bank exercised its influence behind the scenes on the small club of actors that dominated the financial system. Indeed, the UK came rather late to the idea that banks and financial firms needed to be regulated by law rather than steered by the eyebrows of the Governor of the Bank of England. The Macmillan Committee (1931), which inquired into financial policy in the wake of the Wall Street Crash, did not advocate statutory regulation. Rather it endorsed the informal role of the Bank in guiding the banking sector, commenting that “financial policy can only be carried into effect by those whose business it is”. 30 years, a Great Depression and a world war later, the 1959 Report of the Radcliffe inquiry into the monetary system concluded similarly that “it is on this relationship, and on the mutual trust and confidence that are the basis of the relationship, rather than on formal power…that the Bank has relied in seeking to inform itself about and influence the policies of the clearing banks”. In the immediate post war period it was not necessary to do a great deal to promote financial stability or the supervision of financial firms.

3 In other words the massive increase in the stock of lending – an increase of £ trillion in absolute terms – did not lead to very much of an increase in productive investment at all. Of course there are benefits in enabling people to buy their homes. And much of the financing of financial markets almost certainly came back to productive investment in the form of market investments in business. But as we discovered in the crisis much of the lending appears to have financed the increase in house prices and a large part of the market investment was simply misallocated and lost. 4 Nor did this increase in lending drive a commensurate increase in economic growth in this particular credit cycle. Over the period 2000–2007 GDP growth averaged little more than its long-run average of around 2.8%. In fact, business investment over the period averaged just 1.3% a year and it appears that most of this was related to commercial real estate. Conclusion The financial system can be a powerful engine for growth and prosperity. But its ability to generate systemic crises means it can also be a powerful destroyer of those as well. This has been true throughout history but never more so than for today’s highly complex, globalised and digitalised financial system. We should not therefore see economic growth, or productivity as somehow opposed to effective financial regulation.
Dimitar Bogov: What could SEPA bring for the banking and the real sector in the Republic of Macedonia Speech by Mr Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the event “What could SEPA bring for the banking and the real sector in the Republic of Macedonia”, organized by The Banking Association at the Economic Chamber of Macedonia, in cooperation with the European Banking Federation (EBF), Skopje, 13 May 2014. *  *  *  Honorable Mr. Stavreski, Vice President of the Government of the Republic of Macedonia and Minister of Finance, Honorable Mr. Janchevski, Chairman of the Banking Association of the Macedonian Economic Chamber Distinguished guests from the banking sector in the Czech Republic Dear representatives of the banking and the real sector in Macedonia Ladies and Gentlemen, One of the primary functions of each central bank is to create conditions for stable, reliable and efficient operation of the payment systems. To achieve this function, and according to the best practices of central banks of the EU Member States, the National Bank performs four basic roles in the payment systems: operational, supervisory, development and catalyst role. The successful performing of these functions is closely related to the importance of payment systems for a national economy. The proper functioning of the systems for large payments, which are owned and managed by central banks, is important for the effective monetary policy conduct.

In circumstances of permanent changes in the infrastructure of financial markets, the supervisory role of the central bank regarding the payment system contributes to the maintenance of financial stability. Additionally, the systems for large payments contribute to the coordination of the direct participants in the national payment system, such as the Treasury of the Ministry of Finance, banks and clearing institutions, ensuring finality of all payments in the national economy. In this way, the National Bank maintains the vitality of the payment systems as one of the most important components of the financial and economic infrastructure. In terms of achieving the development and catalyst role, allow me to affirm the strategic approach of the National Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Banking Association in the development of the national payment system of the Republic of Macedonia through the adoption and implementation of the Strategy for the development of the payment system of the Republic of Macedonia for the period 2013–2017. Our shared vision for the development of the payment systems of the Republic of Macedonia until 2017 is the modernization and improvement of the operations of payment systems through the application of high-tech achievements and gradual harmonization with the standards and rules of operation of payment systems in the European Union. In this way, we expect to increase the reliability and efficiency of payments and the acceptance of non-cash payment instruments, simultaneously ensuring gradual compliance with the requirements for integration into the Single European Payment Area – SEPA.
During this time, Rochester has been going through a prolonged period of economic transformation and reinvention. While this process has been a painful one in many respects, I believe that it is well-advanced and the area is well-positioned for the years ahead. Rochester possesses a unique set of assets that are key to a successful economic reinvention, including a highly skilled workforce, world class higher education institutions, a diverse economic base, and a forward-looking cooperative engagement between the public and private sector. There is strong evidence that Rochester is already tapping into these assets to great success. To prove my point, I would note that my colleague, Narayana Kocherlakota, is leaving the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis at the end of the year to become a professor at the University of Rochester. Our loss is your gain! Consider how we got to where we are today. Early in the 20th century, with the explosive growth of the “Big 3” – Kodak, Xerox and Bausch & Lomb – came a great demand for innovative and skilled workers, especially engineers, who helped make these companies highly successful. At their peak, these three companies alone employed roughly 20 percent of the Rochester workforce. These workers developed innovative new products and processes, which often resulted in patents that remain valuable to this day. In many ways, Rochester, and its skilled workforce, was ahead of its time. These companies, though, came under pressure in the 1980s as a result of rapid technological changes and increased global competition.

As their employment began to decline, some workers left the area while others remained. Indeed the legacy of the “Big 3” lies not in what was lost, but in what remains in the skills and entrepreneurial spirit of the many talented people that are here today. Some of these talented people started their own companies, while others found different ways to contribute their unique talents to the local economy. As a result, Rochester continues to reinvent itself, and is now much more diverse, with an employment base that is no longer concentrated among a few large manufacturers. The top employers in the region, like the University of Rochester and Rochester Institute of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Technology (RIT), Wegmans, the Rochester General Health System and Paychex, just to name a few, perform a variety of activities, from health care and education to consumer and business services. The process of reinvention and economic diversification, in part, allowed the region to better weather the storm of the Great Recession compared to past economic recessions. For Rochester, the downturn was both shorter and less severe in terms of job loss than for the nation as a whole – a situation quite different from what had occurred before. Though it still lags the nation, the Rochester area has continued to grow at a solid pace through the recovery. This is no small feat, and it certainly is not true for all of Upstate New York.