samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The reports issued by the Counterparty Risk Management Policy Groups I and II both make the important observation that the financial system is likely to be more resilient under conditions of stress when counterparties set initial margins at levels that are likely to be sustainable in less benign conditions. When margin levels are set more conservatively, firms are likely to have more flexibility in responding to stress and are less likely to take action that might amplify the market shock and exacerbate the reduction in liquidity. When competitive pressure drives margins down, markets may be less resilient. Third, we believe the major financial institutions need to continue to improve their capacity to measure their exposure to risk in a less benign market and economic environment than we have experienced in recent years. The discipline of stress testing and scenario analysis that is designed to measure tail risk is at the frontier of this challenge. Senior management and the boards of directors need to understand the limitations of the tools we use to assess these risks, to try to better understand the potential scale of losses the firm may face, and to carefully examine how well risk exposures reflect the overall risk appetite of the firm, and the size of the capital and liquidity cushion maintained in relation to those exposures. BIS Review 54/2006  3  I want to conclude with the observation that the requirements of effective risk management and control regimes are likely to become more rather than less demanding over time.

Timothy F Geithner: Principles to guide the future evolution of financial supervision and regulation Remarks by Mr Timothy F Geithner, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Bond Market Association's Annual Meeting 2006, New York, 19 May 2006. *  *  *  Thanks for inviting me to speak to you today. You are meeting at a time of significant confidence in the strength of the global economy and in the overall health of the financial system. On the available evidence, the core of the U.S. financial system is stronger than it has been in some time. Capital levels are higher and earnings stronger and more diversified. This strength is the result of many factors. It is the result of the length and strength of the economic expansion in the United States and the associated improvements in credit fundamentals. It reflects increases in the scale and scope of the operations of the largest institutions. It is the result of the dramatic innovations in the technology of finance and in the opportunities that has created for managing risk more effectively. And it reflects the increased integration of national financial institutions and the resulting competitive pressure and opportunities for diversification. We have seen substantial improvements in risk management practice and in internal controls over the past decade. These improvements are the product of large investments in people and technology, as well as changes to the internal architecture around control and compliance.
The Executive Board’s assessment in the June 2005 Inflation Report was that the interest rate may gradually – in small, not too frequent steps – be brought up towards a more normal level if economic developments are approximately as projected in the Report. This was considered to provide a reasonable balance between the objective of stabilising inflation at target and the objective of stabilising growth in output and employment. It was the Executive Board’s assessment that the sight deposit rate should lie in the interval 1¾ 2¾ per cent in the period to the publication of the next Inflation Report on 2 November. Following the monetary policy meeting on 21 September, the Executive Board stated that developments in output, demand and underlying inflation had been consistent with the projections in the June Inflation Report. The Executive Board also stated that its monetary policy strategy and assessments indicate that the interest rate should be gradually increased ahead. One option was to increase the interest rate at this meeting, but the Executive Board found it appropriate to leave the interest rate unchanged. Conclusion In my speech today, I have focused on how much and in what way households save and on the prospects for wealth creation. I have also pointed to the challenge facing our current pension system as an ever increasing share of the population gradually reaches retirement age. Increased saving today may be a way to address this challenge, but this is not enough in itself.

In many companies, the large increase in available person-hours was probably not fully utilised immediately. A considerable share of production growth so far this year may be the result of improved utilisation of existing company workforces. In addition, the use of foreign labour seems to have increased recently. Inflation decelerated markedly from summer 2003 and continued to fall in the beginning of 2004. Consumer price inflation has subsequently picked up, albeit at a gentle pace. In August, the year-on-year rise in consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products was 1.3 per cent. Prices for imported consumer goods have continued to fall. The decline in prices may reflect high productivity growth in the production of some goods and large investments to increase production capacity, particularly in China. Prices for domestically produced goods and services rose by 2.1 per cent in the twelve months to August this year. On the basis of the pay increases agreed upon in this year’s wage settlement, combined with the estimates for wage drift and wage carry-over, annual wage growth is projected at around 3½ per cent this year. Low wage growth will contribute to curbing the rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services. Economic growth among trading partners is expected to be somewhat lower this year than in 2004. In the years ahead, growth is expected to be relatively stable. Uncertainties that may contribute to weaker developments include high oil prices and the possibility of weaker housing markets in a number of countries.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Nurturing young talent in Malaysia Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Kijang Emas Scholarship Award Ceremony for High Achievers, Kuala Lumpur, 6 May 2014. *  *  *  While the global economy continues to face uncertainties and significant challenges, the Malaysian economy has every potential to remain on a steady growth trajectory and move up the value chain. This is however only achievable if we can nurture the required talents. Talent development strategies and implementation is therefore one of the key priorities of the nation. We need to invest in our talent pipeline The Kijang Emas Scholarship Award is an eminent scholarship award reflecting the Bank’s commitment in creating a sustainable talent pool for the nation. The Kijang Emas scholarship is distinct from the Kijang scholarship whereby the recipients are given the freedom to pursue any field of study at top-notch universities in any country of their choice. The Bank also does not impose any bond on the recipient except that they return, contribute and take part in the progress and development of our beloved nation. To date, 42 high potential talent have been awarded the Kijang Emas scholarship. The recipients are currently pursuing their studies in diverse field of studies including Medicine, Dentistry, Genetics, Biochemistry, Dietetics, Physics, Engineering, Law, Psychology and Architecture in top universities around the world such as M.I.T., University of Pennsylvania and the University of Cambridge.

Thus far, 6 Kijang Emas scholars have completed their studies and have returned to serve the nation, while another 7 of them are expected to complete their studies in the next six months. For the 2014 Kijang Emas scholarship, we received a total of 331 applications, representing 82% of the 405 straight A+ students in the country. From this, the Bank had shortlisted 26 students based on their SPM results and also their level of involvement in co-curricular and sports activities. The students then underwent a rigorous evaluation process under the Bank’s “Kijang Academy” assessing their technical and leadership competencies, as well as their values. We are pleased to award 3 outstanding students the Kijang Emas Scholarship this year. Having just completed their SPM, Justin and Nurizati will be enrolled into the pre-university programme, whilst Alicia will be pursuing her undergraduate studies. Alicia has successfully obtained a conditional offer to study for the BA degree in Law at the prestigious University of Cambridge. Following their pre-university programme, Justin aspires to be a doctor and Nurizati is keen to read dietetics. I am confident that all of you will do your best and will contribute to the future of our nation. In addition to the Kijang Emas scholarship award, every year the Bank also awards scholarships to about 40 high achieving SPM students for them to pursue their undergraduate studies abroad with the objective of them being part of the Bank’s future talent pool.
But this process can take too long. There is always the risk that when the dust has settled the initiative and enthusiasm, dare I say, on the part of those less affected by the crisis, may be stifled. There is also the risk that the plight of those who have been seriously affected by the crisis is not given the attention it deserves, simply because they do not have an adequately representative voice on the issues at hand at these international forums. There is no lack of ideas, but they need to be translated into actions sooner rather than later. Let me take this opportunity to outline three broad approaches mooted at different forums and supported by us. The first approach involves enhancing the transparency of markets. Timely and reliable information relevant to decision making by market participants as well as by the regulatory authorities is crucial to the effective functioning of a market. It is thus important that there should be an adequate public disclosure framework to provide information that is necessary for counter-parties, creditors and investors to assess risks properly. Not only should increased transparency be promoted in markets trading products in an established exchange. It is also perhaps time to consider whether some suitable form of transparency requirements should be imposed in OTC markets. This is not an easy task, but I believe that with earnest international co-operation, we can achieve meaningful results.

Over the past few decades, these flows have facilitated the efficient cross border utilisation of capital and have provided liquidity in financial markets. By adding an international dimension to financial intermediation, the mobility of international capital has clearly been helpful in promoting growth and development in both the capital exporting and the importing economies. The mobility of capital has more recently been boosted by advances in telecommunications and information technology, allowing capital to move into or out of an economy in huge amount and within a very short space of time. The virtue of capital mobility therefore carries the risk of capital volatility. The volatility is destabilising in both directions. Too rapid a build-up of capital inflows places severe upward pressure on domestic asset prices, fuels inflation, and exacerbates macroeconomic imbalances. Conversely, sudden and massive reversals of these flows place intense downward pressure on the exchange rate, and therefore upward pressure on interest rates, causing asset bubbles to burst and splatter. When rapid build-up is followed suddenly by massive withdrawal, we see the kind of crisis that swept across this region in 1997 and 1998. The volatility of international capital flows is also attributable in part to the phenomenal growth of derivatives and the global over-the-counter (OTC) market in the past decade. A survey by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in June 1998 estimated the size of the global OTC derivatives market at an aggregate notional value of $ trillion.
If inflation stays too low, people will start to expect it to stay that way, creating a vicious cycle, pushing inflation further down over the longer term, and making it harder to achieve our goals through monetary policy. The Second District All of these numbers tell the story of the U.S. economy at the macro level, but they’re not always reflected in the real experiences of Americans across the country. I referred at the beginning of this speech to the Second District—which includes New York State, parts of New Jersey and Connecticut, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands—and is the area the New York Fed is responsible for. I spent yesterday and today meeting with district business leaders, community organizers, and elected officials, hearing about their work, their successes, and their challenges. People’s experiences are influenced by the macro level, but their local economy plays an equal, and often more important role in shaping their economic opportunity. One aspect of the Fed that we don’t talk about enough is the work our regional economists and our outreach teams do, trying to understand what’s going on at the local level. While the U.S. economy has been growing for the last 10 years, analysis by New York Fed economists shows that not everyone is feeling the benefits equally.

14, No 5; and Arora, C. and Cerisola, M. (2001), “How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 48, No 3, pp. 474-498. 25. Gilchrist et al. (2019), “U.S. Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 51, No S1, pp. 1-200; Motto, R. and Özen, K., op. cit. ; Andrade, S. C. et al. (2023), “Sovereign risk premia and global macroeconomic conditions”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 147, No 1, pp. 172-197; and Eichengreen, B. and Mody, A. (1998), “What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?” NBER Working Paper, No 6408. 26. See, for example, Miranda-Agrippino, S. and Rey, H. (2020), “U.S. monetary policy and the global financial cycle”, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol 87, No 6, pp. 2754-2776; and Gilchrist, S. et al. (2022), “Sovereign risk and financial risk”, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 136. 27. Gilchrist, S. and Zakrajšek, E. (2012), “Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations”, American Economic Review, 102, No 4, pp. 1692-1720. The excess bond premium has also been shown to be a powerful driver of economic activity. See Gilchrist, S. and Mojon, B. (2016), “Credit risk in the euro area”, The Economic Journal, 128, No 608, pp. 118-158; and Bleaney, M. et al. (2016), “Bond spreads and economic activity in eight European economies”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 126, No 598, pp. 2257-2291. 28. Anderson, G. and Cesa-Bianchi, A.
Risk assessment The risks to the outlook for economic growth have become more balanced. Russia's unjustified war against Ukraine and its people continues to be a significant downside risk to the economy and could again push up the costs of energy and food. There could also be an additional drag on euro area growth if the world economy weakened more sharply than we expect. Moreover, the recovery would face obstacles if the pandemic were to re-intensify and cause renewed supply disruptions. However, the energy shock could fade away faster than anticipated and euro area companies could adapt more quickly to the challenging international environment. This would support higher growth than currently expected. The risks to the inflation outlook have also become more balanced, especially in the near term. On the upside, existing pipeline pressures could still send retail prices higher in the near term. Moreover, a stronger than expected economic rebound in China could give a fresh boost to commodity prices and foreign demand. Domestic factors such as a persistent rise in inflation expectations above our target or higher than anticipated wage rises could drive inflation higher, also over the medium term. On the downside, the recent fall in energy prices, if it persists, may slow inflation more rapidly than expected. This downward pressure in the energy component could then also translate into weaker dynamics for underlying inflation. A further weakening of demand would also contribute to lower price pressures than currently anticipated, especially over the medium term.

Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement Introductory statement by Ms Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, and Mr Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, 2 February 2023. *** Good afternoon, the Vice-President and I welcome you to our press conference. We would like to begin by congratulating Croatia on joining the euro area on 1 January 2023. We also warmly welcome Boris Vuji, the Governor of Hrvatska narodna banka, to the Governing Council. We will now report on the outcome of today's meeting. The Governing Council will stay the course in raising interest rates significantly at a steady pace and in keeping them at levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to our two per cent medium-term target. Accordingly, the Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points and we expect to raise them further. In view of the underlying inflation pressures, we intend to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at our next monetary policy meeting in March and we will then evaluate the subsequent path of our monetary policy. Keeping interest rates at restrictive levels will over time reduce inflation by dampening demand and will also guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations. In any event, our future policy rate decisions will continue to be datadependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach.
Mugur Isărescu: Meeting the challenges of volatility Opening speech by Mr Mugur Isărescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the "Meeting the Challenges of Volatility" Conference, organised by the Romanian Financial Analysts' Association (AAFBR) and Chartered Financial Analysts (CFA) Romania , Bucharest, 27 March 2018. * * * Distinguished guests, Ladies and gentlemen, Good morning and welcome to the National Bank of Romania. Let me extend a warm welcome to our keynote speaker, Ms. Rachel Lomax, a trusted, longstanding friend of Romania. I am pleased to open today’s conference – Meeting the Challenges of Volatility, organized by two prestigious professional associations, the Romanian Financial Analysts’ Association (AAFBR) and Chartered Financial Analysts (CFA) Romania, with the support of the National Bank of Romania. Here, at the central bank, we always offer a friendly framework for debate and interesting topics. I will not go into detail about today’s topic, as I am sure that the panelists of the three panels will bring to discussion important inputs regarding: Global markets volatility and potential risks for Romania (Panel I), Lending, regulations and capital flows volatility (Panel II), and How the fiscal volatility endangers economic growth (Panel III). Before introducing our keynote speaker, allow me to address a subject which is not part of today’s agenda, but is dear to our hearts. A hundred years ago, on the 27 th of March 1918, the union of the old province of Basarabia (Bessarabia) with Romania was created.

As we speak, the Parliament of Romania is holding a solemn plenary meeting dedicated to the before mentioned event. The National Bank of Romania had an important contribution during the First World War. Therefore it chose to acknowledge the historical moment by issuing a set of numismatic coins in gold, silver, coppered tombac and brass dedicated to this Union. On the obverse, in the foreground, there is an image of the building of the National Council in Kishinev where, on the 27th of March 1918, the union of Bessarabia with Romania was voted, while in the background, there is an excerpt from the Union Act; the inscription “ROMANIA” in an arch, the face value “100Lei, 10LEI, 1LEU, 50 BANI”, the coat of arms of Romania and the year of issue “2018”. On the reverse there are the portraits and the names of the three cosigners of the Union Act, i.e. Ion Inculeţ, Chairman of the National Council, Vice-Chairman Pantelimon Halippa and Secretary Ion Buzdugan; the inscriptions “100 ANI DE LA UNIREA BASARABIEI CU ROMANIA” and “27 Martie 1918”. Ladies and gentlemen, Allow me to say a few words about/ introduce Ms. Rachel Lomax. She is back to Romania after a decade or so and ready to share her valuable 40 years’ experience and expertise in policy making and financial markets. After obtaining a Master’s degree from London School of Economics in 1968, she joined HM Treasury.
Madam Chairperson, with respect to its organisational and functional structure, the Bank has overtime undergone modifications to suite its role as a monetary and supervisory authority. In addition, structural changes have been necessitated by the continuously changing demands along with changes in the economy and especially in the dynamic financial markets. From a handful of departments at inception currently, the Bank comprises the following core departments, Economics, Financial Markets, Bank Supervision, Non-bank Financial Institutions Supervision, Banking, Currency and Payment Systems, and the Regional Office in Ndola. The support departments include Procurement and Maintenance, Finance, Bank Secretariat, Human Resources, Information Technology and Internal Audit as well as a Security Division. In order to streamline the operations of the Bank and improve its performance, a performance agreement system for employees was introduced in 1995. This was meant to bring about a new work culture with emphasis on professionalism, based on the philosophy, “The BoZ Way means Action”. Mr President, Ladies and Gentlemen, since the 1996 Bank of Zambia Amendment Act, the Bank has continued to enjoy operational autonomy with regard to the formulation and implementation of monetary policies and attainment of relative financial system stability. The ability of the Bank to continually meet quantitative benchmarks set by Government and cooperating partners, can be attributed to the focus of its monetary policy on creating a stable macroeconomic environment as a precondition for sustainable economic growth.

This conference series seeks to bring together top  1/2  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  researchers to present their recent work on topics of critical importance for the Spanish economy, and also distinguished policy-makers to discuss their views on these topics. But past successes are simply a good starting point. CEMFI has ambitious plans. It has a plan to implement a strategic vision for the future (underpinned by rigorous external evaluation), it has outstanding leadership (current and incoming) and it has plenty of talent. All these elements have been brought to fruition this year. In fact, the academic year that we are closing today has been full of good news for CEMFI, starting with the successful restructuring of the Master programme, the refurbishing of the new premises in Casado del Alisal 12, and the increase in the size of the faculty from 16 to 19 members, in line with the Board of Trustees' decision to have 25 faculty members by 2025. Even so, we should never forget, that all this – the premises, staff, faculty, strategic plans – are merely instruments. You, the students at CEMFI are the ultimate purpose. Your education and your future. They are at the core of our decisions. Apart from the Master in Economics and Finance, the other major academic programme at CEMFI is the PhD in Economics. In this respect, I would like to mention that 10 students have already defended their PhD theses or will do so in the near future.