samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The economy is already in an adjustment phase and supply factors are beginning to moderate their  7  pressure on prices, although the impact of the latter is lower for now. Nonetheless, inflation remains very high and we continue to see important surprises, although in both directions. The elements that led us to these price increases have their fundamental origin in internal factors, in particular the rocketing increase in spending that we saw in 2021. As a reference, at the end of said year, private consumption in Chile was 21% higher than at the beginning of the pandemic, a figure that rose to 55% for the consumption of durable goods. Both figures were well above those of comparable economies. In any case, the fact that our inflationary phenomenon is mainly caused by internal factors does not ignore that inflation today is a global phenomenon that many countries are enduring. There have been several common shocks, starting with the pandemic and its effects on production chains, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the effects of the more stringent monetary policies of developed countries. The Chilean economy addressed this string of external shocks under a very significant spending imbalance. Monetary policy has made a very significant adjustment. We have completed a cycle of substantial increases in the monetary policy rate, in order to generate conditions that will allow for the adjustment and ensure the convergence of inflation to the 3% target within two years.

Figure 9 World inflation (1) (2) a) Total inflation (annual change, percent)  12 10  b) Core inflation (3) (annual change, percent)  United Kingdom  Latin America  United States  Eurozone  12  Eurozone Latin America  United Kingdom United States  10  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22  00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 (1) For Latin America, the simple average of annual inflation of Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Colombia is used. (2) For the Eurozona, the November figure is preliminary. (1) For Latin America, the simple average of annual inflation of Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Colombia is used. (2) For the Eurozona, the November figure is preliminary. (3) Excludes foods and energy. Source: Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg. Figure 10 a) Monetary policy rates (MPR) (percentage points)  b) Global MPR and expectations (percentage points)  14  Eurozone Canada United Kingdom Brazil Chile  15 12  Current MPR  MPR expected at 2023Q4  12 10 8 6  9  4 6  0 3 0 18  19  20  21  Brazil Hungary Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Poland India New Zealand United States Canada Korea Australia United… Norway Eurozone  2  22  Source: Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Mobilising ASEAN - building the future through partnership Keynote address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Wharton Global Forum Kuala Lumpur 2016 “Mobilising ASEAN: Building the Future Through Partnership”, Sasana Kijang, Kuala Lumpur, 11 March 2016. *  *  *  It is my very great pleasure to welcome you to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia for the Wharton Global Forum 2016. Over the years, the Wharton community has very much recognised the potential of the ASEAN region as a growing force in the global economy. Indeed, in the recent five years, Malaysia is the third country in ASEAN to host this Global Forum (Bangkok in 2015 and Jakarta in 2012) and while central bankers have been a recurring feature at the Wharton Forum, I do however believe that this is possibly the first time a Central Bank is the venue and host to the Wharton Global Forum. We are really delighted to have this opportunity to be the host for this year’s Wharton Forum. I am particularly pleased to welcome you to Sasana Kijang, our Central Bank’s centre of excellence for learning and international cooperation. Indeed, the word ‘Sasana’ is a Sanskrit word that means a meeting place. The building Sasana Kijang which opened its doors in 2011 was envisioned to be a global meeting place for learning, international knowledge exchange, collaboration and cooperation.

•  We will make regulation modular and activity-based, so that firms need to meet only those regulations pertinent to the specific payment activities they undertake, rather than the full gamut of payments regulations. What will this new framework mean? •  Providers of payment services will require only one licence to conduct multiple payment activities. •  Users of payment services – consumers or businesses – can take more comfort that their financial information is safe from the threat of cyber-attacks and theft. Inclusive governance – a payments council Second key strategy: we will put in place an inclusive governance framework that brings together different stakeholders to guide the development of Singapore’s payments landscape in a coherent way. Specifically, MAS is considering the formation of a broad-based Payments Council that will include senior representation from both providers and users of payments systems. The Council will help to align payment initiatives with national strategies and public interest. Specifically, this means to: •  develop common payments infrastructure;  •  promote open access and inter-operability in payments solutions;  •  enhance the quality of payments systems through the adoption of relevant standards and best practices; and  •  make electronic payments accessible to all. MAS will put out next week for public consultation, proposals for updating our payments regulatory framework and forming a Payments Council. Inter-operable infrastructure The third strategy for an e-payments society is a payment infrastructure that is interoperable, that will enable swift, simple, and secure electronic payments for everyone.
The first is public money’, money issued by the Bank of England in the form of physical cash; the second is ‘private money’, issued by commercial banks in the form of electronic bank deposits. Until relatively recently, the great majority of everyday transactions in the UK were made in publicly issued money, notes and coin. Electronic transfers of commercial bank money tended to be reserved for higher value transactions. However, as the cost of electronic money transactions has come down and the functionality increased, and as our daily lives have become more digitalised, commercial bank electronic money has come to dominate payments in the UK. Card payments surpassed cash as the most commonly used form of retail payment in 2016. By 2021, 85% of payments were made electronically (either through cards or bank transfers). However, as the experience with contactless and mobile payments shows, innovation in  payments will continue as new technologies and business models develop. The ability to transact in cash, of course, remains very important to a substantial part of the population and often to the most vulnerable. And cash is clearly an important store of value for many in times of stress[3]. The Bank of England has been very clear that it will continue to issue cash as long as there is any demand for it[4]. But the recent trend away from publically-issued, Bank of England, physical money and towards electronic money issued by private sector banks is very clear.

The second is that we want competition and innovation in financial services – it can increase efficiency, functionality and resilience. Setting out the regulatory approach allows those who want to innovate by providing better products and services to understand the risks that need to be managed as they develop those products. It also ensures that innovation is not simply competing by taking higher risks. This approach has been a key element in the evolution and adoption of innovation in payments in the UK in recent years. Against the background of increasing digitalisation of everyday life, the combination of technological advance and appropriate regulatory frameworks[1] - both to foster competition and to manage risks – has transformed the way we pay. It has also stimulated the growth of the UK Fintech sector which is now the second largest in the world[2]. Contactless’ card payments are now used by close to 90% of people and make up almost a third of all payments in the UK, Nearly a third of UK adults use mobile payment apps such as ApplePay or GooglePay. Seven million consumers and three-quarters of a million SMEs are using Open Banking products. Several digital only challenger banks operate in the UK providing competition and innovation to the UK banking sector. These changes have not only transformed the way people pay but also the type of money they pay with. Two types of money circulate in the UK today.
Oct. Jan. 2006  2007  40  40  20  United States  20  United Kingdom 0  08  Source: Datastream and JP Morgan Chase & Co. (a) Equity and property indices rebased to Jan. 06 = 100. BIS Review 24/2008  60  Euro area Jan.  Apr. Jul. 2007  Oct.  Feb.  May. 08  0 -20  Aug. Source: Bloomberg. (a) 3-month LIBOR spreads over 3-month overnight index swap (OIS) rates. (b) Solid lines show 3 month historical data, with dotted lines derived from forwards. 5  Chart 5: Sub-prime mortgage losses  Chart 6: Monoline CDS prices(a)  $ billions 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Default losses to date (a)  Projected losses (cashflow method)  Projected Writedowns losses to date (market prices) (b)  Sources: Bloomberg, Banks' financial statements and Bank calculations. (a) Estimated default losses to date on subprime securities based on cumulative delinquency rates. (b) Net of hedging. •  •  Sources: Bank of England, Barclays Capital, Goldman Sachs, IMF and Moodys. (a) Average of bid and offer premia of five-year senior debt CDS contracts.

SPEECH  The coronavirus crisis and SMEs Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the “Jahresimpuls Mittelstand 2021” of Bundesverband Mittelständische Wirtschaft Frankfurt am Main, 1 March 2021  It is a great pleasure to have the opportunity to speak to you today. At the ECB we care deeply about connecting with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), since they are the foundation of the European economy. SMEs make up 99.8% of all non-financial companies in the EU, provide 66.6% of jobs and generate 56.4% of added value. [1] It is decisions by companies like yours to invest, hire and innovate that put the European economy on a path to growth. But in Germany, being part of the Mittelstand has a special quality that is about much more than the firm’s size. It is about the philosophy of how to do business and the spirit of management. As Ludwig Erhard said, what defines the Mittelstand is “eine Gesinnung und eine Haltung”[2], how one acts and behaves in society. This way of doing business has brought tremendous economic success. Of the 2,700 “hidden champions” worldwide – SMEs that are leaders in niche markets – almost half are part of the German Mittelstand. [3]  1/8  And it has also helped to pull Germany through times of great crisis. The Mittelstand was central to the country’s Wirtschaftswunder after the Second World War. It was critical to Germany’s swift bounceback from the global financial crisis in 2008.
Household data estimates that the Riksbank previously has presented in its Financial Stability Report show that most indebted households have good margins to cope with a loss of income or rises in interest rates in the future.1 Naturally, that does not mean that individual households could not run into problems when, for example, interest rates increase. For the banks, though, it means that credit risk in the household sector as a whole is low. Past experience also shows that the household sector seldom causes the banks to incur large loan losses. Not even during the deep crisis at the start of the 1990s, when house prices fell steeply, were losses on loans to the household sector a significant share of banks’ total loan losses. From the point of view of monetary policy, the consequences of rising house prices and high debt levels are partly different. House prices influence, via wealth effects, households’ decisions regarding saving and consumption and thereby also demand in the economy overall. For indebted households, the scope for consumption is also affected if the share of their income used for interest payments changes. This is something we have to take account of when forecasting economic growth and inflation. If interest rates rise, interest expenditure as a share of disposable incomes will increase, which tends to dampen consumption demand. That is exactly what you want to achieve if monetary policy is tightened. What happens to house prices is more uncertain.

Regulation should only be considered if the objective is abundantly clear and if there is overwhelming evidence that market participants lack the incentives or the capability to adequately manage these risks themselves. Rather than seeking regulation, market participants, central banks and regulators should focus on strengthening an already active dialogue with the aim of furthering our understanding of new types of risk associated with modern financial markets. BIS Review 44/2006  1
We will need to notify relevant Parliamentary committees when we publish a consultation and to respond in writing to select committees’ formal responses to consultation. It will also establish a new panel providing independent oversight of the cost benefit analysis we  Page 7  carry out when developing proposals. Furthermore, we will publish our approach to cost-benefit analysis so that everyone can understand how we carry out this important stage in the policymaking process. It is also essential that we explain our proposals to all our stakeholders and take into account their views. We will engage with them more, including by publishing more discussion papers to explain our early stage thinking. This will go hand-in-hand with clear communications to help firms understand our plans for future changes to policy. To that end, the Regulatory Initiatives Grid now provides firms with a comprehensive overview of initiatives planned by eight financial regulators, including the PRA. [17] Being more accessible also means making it easier for firms to understand the requirements they must meet. Firms today face requirements scattered across primary legislation, statutory instruments, retained EU law, UK Technical Standards, PRA Supervisory Statements, PRA Statements of Policies, and Guidelines, Recommendations, and Q&As originally drafted by European Supervisory Agencies. We need to change that. Under the reforms implemented by the Financial Services and Markets Bill, we intend to create a single, easily useable Rulebook written in plain English, although this will be a multi-year project.

And we’ll work together to ensure that, if the safety of the system relies increasingly on them, the standards they meet reflect their systemic importance. Because none of these competitive trends are to be stifled. In fact, they are to be spurred. Our job is to enable and encourage, ensuring these developments achieve their full potential. Conclusion  Five years ago, few could conceive of this unbundling of banking. In the wake of the crisis, any return of borrowing seemed a long way off. And Brexit wasn’t even a word. The lesson: stuff happens. And because it does, we all benefit from a financial system that can serve in the bad times as well as the good; from a system that doesn’t disrupt the economy but can deliver for it. But no set of rules, however detailed, will deliver that for all time. The framework that’s now five years old reflects that by hard-wiring the duty to keep up. Keep up with the macro trends. So that, whatever happens, the Square Mile is regulated for the good of all 94,000 square miles of the UK. Thank you. 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  10  Charts Chart 1: Annual growth rates of UK mortgage and consumer credit lending  (a)  Chart 2: Spreads between quoted mortgage rates and risk-free rates  (a)  Source: Bank of England. (a) Sterling net lending by UK MFIs and other lenders to UK individuals. Seasonally adjusted. Consumer credit series excludes student loans.
Among lower income groups, a more granular level of analysis on income patterns is needed to structure solutions that address the irregularity in loan repayments. Financial inclusion for the ageing population is another critical area that requires more understanding. It is important that new products, delivery channels and technologies also work well for our senior citizens that are financially excluded. Many financial products and services offered today have age limits that create barriers to access financial services. This ought to be changed to ensure inclusive financial systems for the ageing population segment. Technologies that enable better data collection and analytics can support deeper research to fill this gap while mitigating the risks to providers of financial solutions. Beyond data applications, opportunities exist in other areas. For example, distributed ledger technology eliminates the need for centralised transaction validation and shortens the settlement chain, effectively lowering costs of real-time remittances. By incorporating adequate Know-Your-Customer (KYC) requirements, distributed ledger has the potential to address de-risking. Robo-advisers could potentially be adapted to increase financial literacy and support customers in less accessible locations. The adoption of open Application Interfaces (API) facilitates a sharing environment whereby improvements build on existing innovations could shorten the time to market for more offerings. These are just a hint of many more examples that can be examined. What is needed is a rethinking of today’s most promising financial innovations for applications and new gains in financial inclusion.

European Central Bank: Press briefing – transcript Transcript by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, following the meeting of the Governing Council, Frankfurt am Main, 2 August 2007. *  *  *  Let me just say a few words and then I will be ready to respond to questions, as usual. Recent economic developments and survey indicators confirm that sustained economic growth continued in the euro area through the second quarter. Rising oil prices, emerging capacity constraints and the potential for stronger wage and cost dynamics, among other factors, imply upside risks to price stability over the medium term. The existence of upside risks to price stability at medium to longer-term horizons is confirmed by the strength of the underlying rate of monetary expansion: strong vigilance is therefore of the essence to ensure that risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialise. Both, our previous economic and monetary analysis as expressed in particular in the last press conference have been fully confirmed by the ongoing information we have received since the last meeting of the Governing Council. Let me also stress that we never precommit, we decide at the moment of the meeting of the Governing Council on the basis of the information that we have, facts and figures, and according to the judgement that we make at that moment. I re-emphasise that we never pre-commit.
As we well know, the key issue here is the fulfilment of the Maastricht criteria. Most new member states, Estonia included, will obviously have no great difficulties in meeting the sovereign debt and budget deficit criteria. The remaining two criteria low inflation and exchange rate stability - are connected with some specific problems. The fulfilment of the inflation criteria might not in reality be as difficult as is feared - and achievable in not so distant future. However, in the context of rapid accession, the meeting of the inflation criteria becomes a main issue. This is due to the interaction of the so-called real and nominal convergence. Together with the rapid growth of productivity and earnings, prices are going to rise quicker in the new member states. Considering great price gaps in applicant countries v?s a v?s present member states, one can assume that price equalisation will take time. Thus we can conclude that inflation rates in the new member states will for several years stay higher than the mean rate of the three lowest inflation economies in the European Union plus 1.5 per cent. We have estimated that for Estonia the “optimum” pace for streamlining of prices would be ca 2 to 3 per cent points per year. In our opinion this difference reflects the quicker productivity increase trend in Estonia. In conclusion, a few comments on the main economic policy issues that the European Union faces.

Under these circumstances it will be exceedingly important to make a thorough scrutiny of the social security system’s design; this is a question that has been on something of a back burner, what with the crisis for stabilisation policy in the 1990s and the achievement of a more lasting solution to the issue of pensions. In such a discussion about social security systems that are effective and sustainable in the long term there is a place for the issue of cyclical stabilisation. Systems that are fully or partly funded, publicly or privately, can function well as stabilisers. Thus, it is mainly in this context that I would like to place the discussion that has taken place about various types of buffer fund. But the need to reform the social security system is primarily connected, not with stabilisation policy but with being able to guarantee a high quality of publicly financed services without raising the tax take. Measures for influencing the business cycle Finally there are the questions of whether a more active, discretionary fiscal policy would be advisable and whether, to function better in the future, it may need to be supported by new institutional arrangements. First, let me stress that, for reasons I mentioned earlier, I do not have much faith in fine tuning. Of course that does not rule out trying not to accentuate fluctuations as far as possible when measures are taken primarily for other reasons.