samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The language of “recovery” simply did not fit their facts. On subsequent regional visits, including this one in Wales, talking to companies, community groups and charities, I have encountered the same conundrum. For many, the economic recovery is visible and tangible – in sales, in jobs, in investment. But for others it is barely visible and for some non-existent. How to reconcile the macro data with these micro accounts? Were these stories outliers? Or was I neglecting an important missing ingredient in the UK’s economic fortunes? Put differently, whose recovery were we actually talking about? These questions have a particular resonance here in Port Talbot. Prior to the crisis, unemployment in the local area was similar to the Welsh and UK average at around 5%. But the region was hit hard by the recession, with unemployment peaking at 13% in 2014. Despite recent falls, it remains at 9% – well above its pre-crisis peak and levels in Wales and the UK. Today, over one in five households have no-one in work. Recent uncertainty about the future of the local steelworks, and the jobs of the 4,000 workers there, has further complicated the picture. Here in Port Talbot, the language of “recovery” may also fail to fit the facts. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Against that background, I want today to take a look at the performance of the UK economy over recent years.

I believe that there is another very important reason why the euro area has been so badly hit by the crisis; it is because we are a very highly integrated economic area but do not have the appropriate institutional mechanisms for this integration. In particular, this explains the contagion effects and the negative feedback loops between banks and States, which have made matters much worse in the area. Obviously, a good and coherent functioning of the banking sector is absolutely vital for an overall solution to the euro area crisis. This conviction is based on two fundamental observations: –  Appropriate financing is essential for our economies to achieve strong and sustainable growth. In Europe, the banking system is the main source of financing, and hence its strength is of crucial importance. However, financial markets naturally also play a key role and they should focus on serving the economy. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  –  Secondly, financial stability is critical not just for creating the right conditions for the appropriate financing of the economy. It is also an extremely valuable asset in fostering confidence, which has been severely lacking in recent years and is another key condition for growth. It is also a vital condition for the effectiveness of monetary policy as it allows the normal functioning of transmission mechanisms. In addition, given the feedback loop between banks and sovereigns and the potential impact of a financial crisis on a country’s fiscal position, financial stability makes a major contribution to fiscal stability.
MAS will, as part of its supervisory review process, continue to engage the banks on their capital planning processes, and to evaluate whether the framework is sufficiently robust and comprehensive. The third area that financial institutions need to do is to establish firm-wide risk management and foster an appropriate risk management culture. In this crisis, several institutions that failed were managing risks within “silos”, by organisational structure or by risk types. In terms of culture, the focus on expanding earnings needs to be matched with an equal focus on risk and control. Senior management and staff at the business lines need to comprehend, and be accountable, for the risks which emanate from their activities. Risk managers have to be empowered to call a stop to the dance even while the music is still playing. It is in this context that the recent Financial Stability Board principles on compensation have been formulated, to align compensation to prudent risk taking. So far, I have highlighted some of the challenges facing regulators and industry participants. Academics, researchers and institutes such as RMI, play important roles in supporting the financial industry in its journey to improve risk management practices. Let me now touch on the role that RMI can play. RMI’s role in the aftermath of the crisis As a knowledge centre in financial risk management, RMI acts as the link between theory and application, bringing together researchers, risk managers and regulators to share experiences and views on risk management. I believe RMI can do more to facilitate this.

2  BIS Review 121/2009  under conditions of stress. The level of capital has an important “signalling” effect in a crisis. Hence, banks need to develop funding strategies and contingency plans, ahead of crisis, to ensure there is adequate capital to maintain market confidence. A second related area is stress testing. Globally, the financial industry has acknowledged that stress testing practices were insufficiently comprehensive or rigorous. Robust stress testing helps the financial institution to identify the impact of adverse events and shocks, outside of the normal environment. However, let me caution that the techniques for integrated firm-wide stress testing remain in the early stages of development and need to be further refined. Tipping points, correlations between risks, feedback loops, behaviours and interactions of market participants are difficult to anticipate and quantify. New approaches to stress tests are being considered, such as reverse stress testing, which requires a financial institution to identify scenarios of which the impact could threaten its survival. If done well, such an approach can help question assumptions, and uncover hidden risks and interlinkages between risk factors. Capital planning and stress testing rely heavily on quantitative techniques to measure risks. The crisis shows the limitations of Value-at-Risk (VAR) models and other quantitative techniques. Going forward, financial practitioners will have to be more critical of the assumptions behind the models, and be more prepared to apply sound judgment and reality checks.
This is because of the start of the development of the market economy goes back to 1950, relationship with the EU back to 1963 and the completion of the Customs Union back to 1995. Indeed, Turkey is the only country that completed customs union without being a member. In a sense, Turkey is more integrated to the European markets than many new members and other candidates. When you look at the current account, Turkey has the second largest share after Poland in total trade volume towards the EU-15. And as of August 2005, the share of the EU-25 in Turkey’s total exports and imports are 52.5 percent and 42.4 percent respectively. Furthermore, 52 percent of the total number of tourists visiting Turkey so far in 2005 are EU citizens. Viewing Turkey’s capital account, it is noticeable that in the last two years, 85 percent of total foreign direct investment inflows to Turkey came from the EU. That figure was 71 percent on average in the last fifteen years. In consequence, the Turkish membership to the EU will nourish this close economic relationship further. Turkey’s membership will not only create a market for the EU in favour of both consumers and firms, but also help the EU to become closer geographically to the Middle East, Russia, Black Sea and Central Asia markets and so increase its competitiveness. As you all know, Turkey is an important regional power at the crossroads of important energy, transportation and communication networks.

Süreyya Serdengeçti: The Turkish economy and the European Union Remarks by Mr Süreyya Serdengeçti, Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, at the London School of Economics, London, 27 October 2005. *  *  *  Distinguished Academicians, Guests, It is a great pleasure for me to be here with you today at London School of Economics (LSE), and to have an opportunity to give this lecture on such a delicate subject, that is the Turkish economy in the context of the European Union (EU). I would also like to express my heartfelt thanks for the establishment of the Chair in Contemporary Turkish Studies that, I believe, will play an important role in the relations between Turkey and the EU. I want to begin my speech by first giving you a simple description of Turkey on its way towards the EU membership. I will be referring to the words of Sir Winston Churchill. On November 10, 1942, after the victory at El Alamein that changed the course of the Second World War, he said, "This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning ". Personally, I think this is exactly how we should see the Turkish membership in the EU as of October 3rd; it is simply the end of a long beginning. Three important points now: the first one is about the fact that in Turkey, the EU accession has always been a long-term goal.
This meant that it became expensive and difficult for the banks to fund themselves. In this situation the Riksbank began to lend money to the banks at longer maturities to secure their funding. During three months in autumn 2008 the Riksbank increased its lending to the banks by more than around SEK 450 billion. To begin with the Riksbank granted loans in kronor at three-month and six-month maturities, but gradually the maturities were increased to twelve months. Lending at a variable interest rate has declined over the past six months, but has been supplemented by the previously-mentioned lending at a fixed interest rate of almost SEK 300 billion (Figure 7). Figure 7 The Riksbank’s lending in SEK and USD SEK billion 600  500  600  SEK, Commercial paper USD SEK, variable rate SEK, fixed rate  500  400  400  300  300  200  200  100  100  0 Jul-08  0 Oct-08  Jan-09  Apr-09  Jul-09  Oct-09  Source: The Riksbank. The Riksbank has also granted loans in US dollars. During the crisis there was a shortage of dollars around the world and the banks experienced difficulty in obtaining funding in dollars. At most, lending in dollars corresponded to around SEK 250 billion in spring 2009. Since then the banks’ interest in borrowing dollars from the Riksbank has declined.

At the same time it is important to set the interest rates in a way that avoids directly subsidising the bank system. In addition to the Riksbank’s measures the Swedish banks have received other forms of support during the financial crisis. They have also been able to borrow from other central banks. As part of the government’s stability package, with effect from December 2008 financial institutions can apply to have their borrowing guaranteed by the government through the Swedish National Debt Office. At present nine financial institutions have received loans amounting to just over SEK 300 billion with such guarantees. All in all, the bank lending supported by the Riksbank and by the Swedish National Debt Office amounted at most to almost SEK 800 billion in July this year (Figure 10). BIS Review 160/2009  9  Figure 10 The Riksbank’s lending and government-guaranteed borrowing SEK billion 900 800  900 Emissions guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office The Riksbank's lending  800  700  700  600  600  500  500  400  400  300  300  200  200  100  100  0 Jul-08  0 Oct-08  Jan-09  Apr-09  Jul-09  Oct-09  Sources: The Swedish National Debt Office and the Riksbank. To summarise, the measures to safeguard financial stability during the financial crisis were mainly aimed at quickly providing the banks with wide scale funding in SEK and USD.
My appeal today for you is to embrace a different philosophy of thinking and acting, more modern and forward-looking, obviously always capitalising on our best national values and traditions. My advice is: never absent yourselves from knowledge and books. Education is a never-ending experience and process, and will accompany you throughout your carrier, notwithstanding your specific engagement, a bright member of the academia, a successful entrepreneur in the private sector or an expert of important public or international institutions. To be on the top list, you should always update your knowledge on the most recent theories, trends and findings, which explain the most basic laws and functioning of markets and economy. As the administrator of an important institution in the field of the economic and financial policies decision making, I have always believed and supported the involvement of the new generation in the daily activity of the institution. Beyond the fact that the new generation dominates the human resources in the Bank of Albania, we try to maintain the interest and the inclusion of students in our everyday activity, through a range of various educational and informative programs. The Bank of Albania is open for all students studying in finance and economics or other related fields for internships, continuously supporting the scientific and research work of the students.

On behalf of Bank Negara Malaysia, let me take this opportunity to express our thanks to the OECD and INFE, and the moderators, speakers and discussants in making this event a success. I would also like to thank all delegates for your active participation throughout this symposium. I hope you have gained valuable insights for charting your own national strategies for financial education. Enjoy the rest of your stay in Malaysia, and we look to the opportunity to welcome you back in the future. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
SPEECH DATE:  4 June 2018  SPEAKER:  Stefan Ingves  VENUE:  Stockholm School of Economics  SVERIGES RIKSBANK SE-103 37 Stockholm (Brunkebergstorg 11) Tel +46 8 787 00 00 Fax +46 8 21 05 31 registratorn@riksbank.se www.riksbank.se  Money and payments – where are we heading? Today, I am going to talk about money. This is a subject that concerns us all – most of us use money practically every day. But we probably don’t give much thought to how important it is that our daily purchases can be carried out smoothly. It's more or less the same as not giving so much thought to your health as long as you’re healthy. But once you get sick, it becomes almost the only thing you can think about. Our system for payments is similar; as long as it works securely and efficiently, we don’t think about it. And, to continue the analogy: It is the Riksbank's task to ensure that the payment system remains healthy and contributes to a well-functioning society. Right now, we, at the Riksbank, are devoting a lot of time to issues regarding payments and the payment system. The background to this is formed by the rapid changes on the payment market and the rapid decrease in cash usage in Sweden – a development that we are practically alone in, worldwide. Only a few other countries are undergoing a similar, albeit less dramatic, development.

If the Swedish payment system were to become dominated by private crypto-currencies or by something other than Swedish kronor, domestic monetary policy would be marginalised. The ongoing Riksbank Inquiry has examined the matter of cash in a so-called fast track and a few proposals on access to cash services have been produced. This could contribute to slowing down the trend of decreasing cash usage. However, there are indications that that the latter is mainly a consequence of reduced demand for cash. 30 I hope that the Riksbank Inquiry, in its final report, will put forward further proposals for the long term protection of Swedish kronor issued by the Riksbank, whichever form these may take, physical or digital. New legislation,  30 For an analysis of this development, see “Times are changing and so are payment patterns”. Guibourg, G. and Erlandsson, F. Economic Commentary No. 6 2018. Sveriges Riksbank. 12 [15]  strengthening the protection for Swedish kronor, should be technologically neutral to allow for a future totally dominated by electronic money. I would like to be clear that, as yet, we are only at the start of the analysis of the e-krona. Last autumn, we presented a few preliminary conclusions and, at the end of this year, we will decide whether and, if so, how we will proceed with the next stage of the project. Neither are we alone in the central banking world in considering this.
Today, we can see that banks now have much more opportunities to manage their liquidity risks and the market has an adequate amount of highly liquid assets. Generally, such credit lines are granted when the market as a whole experiences a shortage of highly liquid assets, including, for instance, when we had to address the problem of small public debt. Currently, Russia’s public debt is still small, yet the market already has a sufficiently large amount of highly liquid assets. We are now resuming our plans for a progressive increase in the cost of irrevocable credit lines, but this process will be more gradual than we assumed before the pandemic. The fee of 0.15% on lines opened beginning on 1 April 2021 will remain effective until 1 October (previously we planned a rise from 1 April). After this date, the fee for using these lines will be raised to 0.5%. As to an individual limit for systemically important banks, we will reduce it over the next 12 months not by 30%, as we planned before, but only by 15%. The next topic I would like to address is preferential lending. As you know, President Putin has given the instruction to develop proposals on how preferential programmes should be implemented over the next period, until 2024. In this regard, I would like to present our view. We believe that preferential lending as an anti-crisis measure has been very efficient, yet it should be terminated in due time exactly as an anti-crisis measure.

A priority will be given to those projects that will contribute to the well-being of future generations. We are interested in the development of green finance instruments. However, it is also vital to assess the actual risk level for investors. We are well aware of the fact that a lot of Russian companies are highly carbon-intensive. Therefore, it is necessary to assess their risks taking into account, among other factors, the introduction of carbon taxes in the European Union and other countries. Global investors are already altering their strategies. Moreover, banks themselves need to factor in climate risks in their operations. This is a serious challenge to the economy, the financial system, and the regulator. We should learn how to adequately assess not the risks that have been accumulated before. We are differentiating risk assessment in regulation relying on actual data showing how these risks materialised. We should assess future risks and model these future risks, building these stress scenarios. In our opinion, we may not blindly lower the requirements for these green instruments, but we should develop an approach helping an investor understand that a particular project is really a green one and assess the level of its sustainability and risks that may arise, as well as how they differ from those inherent in socalled non-green projects. This is an issue to be addressed in the course of our joint work. We have already made a certain progress towards better information transparency.
In terms of the regulatory framework, the Bank will be outlining the approach for the implementation of Pillar 2 of the Basel II Framework. The Bank is providing further guidance in the areas of liquidity and operational risk management, the maintenance of internal capital targets, market disclosures, and the valuation processes and controls – particularly for illiquid instruments. The guidance will also be issued to address the implementation of the internal capital adequacy assessment process within the institutions to complement the minimum regulatory standards under Pillar 1 and will also stipulate the minimum requirements for banks that are adopting the Internal Ratings-Based Approach. Details of the proposed capital framework for securitization will also be released during the year. In addition, the liquidity guidelines will be revised to strengthen the requirements in the management of foreign currency cash flow mismatches over different time horizons. Corporate governance will remain an important priority of the regulatory framework in preserving a sound financial system. The progressive adoption of more principle-based regulations has placed greater reliance on the effective oversight by boards and the senior management to ensure that the regulatory flexibilities accorded to financial institutions are exercised in a judicious manner. A revised fit and proper standard for directors, senior management and controllers of financial institutions will be issued, complemented by an improved and coordinated strategy for the education of directors of financial institutions to strengthen their oversight responsibilities in a more complex financial landscape.

We have been through a period of relatively favorable financial conditions, and the prospect for future stability will depend in part on the degree of care and conservatism market participants bring today to judgments about opportunity and risk management. Thank you. BIS Review 55/2006  3
This could be, for instance, by making banks build up extra capital buffers or reserves in the good times, which can then be drawn on when times turn bad so obviating the need to cut back sharply on their lending. In this way, the real economy can be protected from the financial excesses that seem prone to recur. Central banks and banking supervisors are presently working to identify the best way to provide this missing bit of the toolbox. Last Saturday, I attended the meeting of G8 finance ministers and central bank governors in Rome. Their determination to take whatever further policy actions was necessary to restore their economies to health was evident. Right now, we may look to be in for a long and hard economic winter. But, just as the chills of winter each year give way to the promise of spring,  4  BIS Review 19/2009  you can be equally sure that the current recession will eventually come to an end and economic spring will arrive. Chart 1 Business surveys of output in selected countries  Chart 2 Oil prices  BIS Review 19/2009  5  Chart 3 Consensus forecasts for world GDP growth in 2009  Chart 4 Nominal demand  6  BIS Review 19/2009  Chart 5 Broad money and credit  Chart 6 GDP projection based on market interest rate expectations  BIS Review 19/2009  7  Chart 7 CPI inflation projection based on market interest rate expectations  8  BIS Review 19/2009

The answer to the above question lies in the prudential dimension. If the financial intermediaries of the EMEs were able to internalize the macroeconomic risks that arise from the current low interest rate environment, there would be no need for a policy apart from market based return equalization. Since this cannot happen by itself due to agency problems, there is a room for macroprudential policy. Turkey, following the second approach, has been using mainly macroprudential measures along with a relatively low and yet quite flexible interest rate policy in face of volatile short term capital flows.2 The Central Bank and the other government agencies responsible for financial stability, developed new tools and introduced new policies to avoid excessive deviations of the credit growth rates and the exchange rates from economic fundamentals. Examples of macroprudential policies used in Turkey are loan to value restrictions, high risk weights and provisioning requirements on credit with negative externalities, maturity based reserve requirements and leverage based reserve requirements. These policies already helped to start a rebalancing process for domestic and external demand during the rapid post Lehman recovery and the more recent European sovereign debt crisis.3 Distinguished Guests, The financial stability, when lost, has deep and long-term impacts on both employment and growth.4 The cost of preventing a financial crisis is much lower than the cost of living it. The recent developments have reminded us this economic dictum once again. The primary objective of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is to achieve and maintain price stability.