samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Consequently, there is a wide variety of institutional solutions and regulatory arrangements across countries and sectors. I nevertheless consider that such a decentralised approach should be considered as an opportunity, rather than a disadvantage. It encourages "cross fertilisation" of best practices through increased co-ordination of Member States’ structural policies. My second remark concerns the changeover to the euro. This event is a major structural reform in itself, a powerful drive towards restructuring the European economy. It constitutes a strong lever to facilitate the comparison of prices, taxes and incomes. An important objective consists in raising the potential output growth of the European economy If France and Europe want to secure sustainable growth at levels that are as high as possible, the key variable is potential output growth. There are three ways of raising the level of potential output growth: First, boost investment: business leaders are completely free to invest wherever they want in France, Europe or elsewhere in the world. It is thus important that we create economic, legal and fiscal conditions that are as favourable as possible to investment in Europe. The investment appeal of Europe is crucial in this respect: the more we invest, the fewer inflationary pressures we will have, and the stronger potential output growth will be. The second way of raising potential output growth is to increase the quantity of available labour: The European Council of Lisbon fixed as a central objective increasing the employment rate of our populations from 60 to 70 % in 10 years.

On the very contrary, ERM II offers a meaningful, partly flexible, credible framework for increasing convergence with the euro area on the road towards the adoption of the euro. -  Thirdly, a sound and efficient banking and financial system is essential. Significant progress has been made over the past few years in rehabilitating the banking sector and encouraging foreign ownership, which has also contributed to greater integration into the EU financial system. The intermediation role of the banking sector remains fundamental for the efficient use of capital and sustained growth. Progress in corporate governance,  enhancement of the legal and supervisory frameworks that support the banking sector, and the fight against money laundering, are also crucial. *  *  *  In conclusion, let me make three remarks: §  First, you might remember that two months ago there still were a lot of opinions and articles forecasting enormous difficulties associated with the Euro changeover. These catastrophic predictions proved wrong again. The Euro notes and coins changeover has not only been a great technical success, but it has also been accompanied and illuminated by genuine popular enthusiasm. In my view this is a very important and positive phenomenon which has to be reflected upon thoroughly all over Europe, including in the UK. §  Second, the assessment produced by some economists on the international economy is today as bleak as it was buoyant yesterday, both postures being equally excessive.
The nature of these price hikes is purely international, or related to weather, making them unavoidable from the point of view of monetary authorities. However, their potential propagation to other prices and wages through what we normally call second-round effects gives monetary policy an important role even in the presence of these specific external price shocks. Given the nature of the shock, driven to a large extent by biofuel production and food demand in fast-growing Asian countries, the shock is likely to persist for a long time. Some  5  Truman (2003), Hyvonen (2004) and Vega and Winkelried (2005), among others. Ball and Sheridan (2005) show that the available evidence does not support this conclusion for developed economies. Mishkin and Schmidt-Hebbel (2007) corroborate this differentiated benefit, and conclude that the winners are emerging economies and converging-to-target ITers. Still, they conclude that the choice of the control group is key for finding any effect of IT on inflation. 6  De Gregorio et al. (2007) and Blanchard and Gali (2007) show evidence supporting these views. 4  BIS Review 74/2008  second-round effects are bound to happen, since price and wage formation always have some degree of inertia. The role of monetary policy is to ensure that the adjustment of relative prices occurs without a persistent increase in inflation, that is, beyond normal dynamics. Put differently, monetary policy must guarantee that the dynamic of prices is consistent with convergence of inflation to its objective, within the time horizon envisioned in the inflation target regime.

By now we all know that the reliance on second-best solutions in statistics might entail wrong policy decisions, inability to detect and respond to vulnerabilities, and large costs for the society. Let me wish you a successful seminar with productive and interactive discussions. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
The results suggest a tangible level of uncertainty about economic conditions. Most companies have not taken any specific measures, however. Monetary and financial conditions I will now turn to monetary and financial conditions. After about two years of negative inflation, consumer price inflation has been practically zero for some months now. This very restrained development is also reflected in inflation expectations. The majority of market participants expect inflation to remain unchanged in the short term. Over a longer horizon of more than two years, the relevant surveys show that the expected rate of inflation is approximately 1.0%. These results are consistent with our assessment of the inflation outlook. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Geopolitical risks and mixed economic data in the major economies led to stronger demand for secure investments. This was reflected in falling yields on long-term government bonds. My colleague, Fritz Zurbrügg, will talk to you about developments in the financial markets in more detail. Mortgage rates also declined again, thereby further bolstering demand for mortgage loans. However, the slowdown of momentum in mortgage lending, which has been observed for some time now, continued. This is a step in the right direction. Nevertheless, imbalances remain. It is therefore still too early for an all-clear. Given the high level of liquidity, money market rates remained at a low level. Even prior to the introduction of negative interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB), Swiss franc Libor futures slipped well into negative territory.

2 A recovery has also started at an earlier stage in the cycle than in the early 1990s, when the economy “bumped along the bottom” for a number of quarters before growth became firmly established. It is particularly encouraging that manufacturing output has been growing particularly strongly, up by 5.3% on a year ago in the third quarter. This is the strongest year-on-year manufacturing growth we have seen since the end of 1994, sixteen years ago. The latest business surveys are generally positive about the continuation of the growth of manufacturing output. And the CBI’s latest quarterly Industrial Trends Survey, released last month, shows the strongest investment intentions in manufacturing since 1997 and the most significant employment growth since 1989. These are all encouraging signs for the rebalancing of the UK economy – towards manufacturing and away from services – which most economic analysts have suggested is likely to be needed over the course of this recovery. These rates of growth – across the UK economy as a whole and in manufacturing – would not be possible unless the demand climate had changed very significantly over the course of the last 12–18 months. The global economy has bounced back strongly, with the IMF now projecting world growth of 4.8% this year and 4.2% next year. Asia and a number of other emerging market economies are providing a powerful engine of growth to the world economy at present. Though the news is more mixed from the US and Europe, their economies are still on a recovery track.
Interest rates of foreign currency deposits demonstrated adverse tendency to that of Lek deposits during 2004. This market was impacted by rise of LIBOR and EURIBOR interests in international markets. The Bank of Albania has successfully managed the banking system liquidity, using its framework of monetary policy instruments. Aiming at improving its operational framework and easing the functioning of Albania Interbank Payment System (AIPS), the Bank of Albania approved the Regulation “On intraday credit” on March 2004. The use of this credit, which started in May, has assisted in meeting the needs for effecting commercial banks’ intraday payments. 6  BIS Review 38/2005  Banking system performance Financial position of the banking system at end of 2004 is presented as good. Main profitability indicators have generally had a steady performance, reflecting the prudential overall banking system growth and the activity extension of most banks through more products and larger presence in the market. The banking system evidenced positive net income over 2004, about Lek 5.11 billion or about 0.66 billion more than in the previous year. This figure constitutes 0.66 percent of GDP accrued for 2004. Good position of the banking system is reflected even in the main profitability indicators, RoA and RoE. These indicators have rested in high levels; furthermore, they have undergone a slight growth in comparison to the previous years. This indicates that the net result growth was not only due to banking system assets growth but also due to productivity growth of assets and capital.

To achieve this, after raising interest rates to close to the "neutral interest rate" of 2% in December, we are now embarking on the second phase towards monetary stabilisation: ideally, it would be good to reach the right "terminal rate" by next summer, but it is still too early to say what that level will be. We need to remain pragmatic and to be guided by observed data, including on core inflation, without getting fixated on overly mechanical rate hikes. We will then be prepared to remain at this terminal rate for as long as necessary: the sprint to raise interest rates in 2022 is now becoming more of a long-distance race, and the duration will count at least as much as the level. In parallel, we shall continue to focus on maintaining financial stability, helped by the strong resilience of French banks and insurers. In Europe, 2023 needs to be the year when Basel III is transposed into EU law and the Solvency II review is completed. Regarding crypto-assets, the disruption seen in 2022 is nourishing one basic conviction: France should switch as soon as possible to the compulsory authorisation of DASPs (digital asset service providers) rather than simply requiring their registration. And this needs to happen well before MiCA enters into force, to create the necessary framework of trust. 2) Less protection and more adaptation. The government can cushion the energy shock temporarily, but it cannot make it disappear.
Christian Noyer: The ECB and the accession process Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, at the European Federation of Finance House Associations (EUROFINAS) conference, Warsaw, 15 October 2001. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, Let me begin by saying that it is a great pleasure for me to participate in this conference, and that I appreciate the invitation of the "European Federation of Finance House Associations" (EUROFINAS). The Federation's effort to bring together finance and credit institutions throughout Europe deserves full merit. The choice of the city of Warsaw for this year's conference seems particularly interesting to me, as this city is witnessing the far-reaching links that are currently being developed between the countries represented by EUROFINAS' members and the so-called accession countries preparing for EU membership. As a representative of the European Central Bank (ECB), I welcome the EUROFINAS members' objective to jointly tackle the challenges faced by the European financial industry at an international level. Not only is this remarkable in such a competitive industry, but it is also key to support the development of the financial sector in the economies of central and eastern Europe. Despite the achievements of the past decade, the accession countries still need to devote effort both to the reinforcement of prudential policies and business practices and to the development of highly valuable capital and "know-how" in the financial sector.

The Exchange Fund Notes have a transparent and efficient price discovery system – up-to-date prices and yields can be easily found in newspapers and the financial media. But we all should not forget, of course, that the prices of Exchange Fund Notes can go up as well as down, depending on the level of interest rates. End of commercial. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 31/2005
The challenge to monetary policy is how the interest rate should be set ahead in order to prevent disturbances both to inflation and economic growth. As a general rule, central banks influence the shortest money market rates via the policy rate. However, economic agents’ consumption and investment decisions depend more on their interest rate expectations. Hence, monetary policy functions primarily by influencing expectations regarding future interest rates. Economic agents therefore need to understand the central bank’s intentions in its interest-rate setting. In the November 2005 Inflation Report, Norges Bank published its own forecast for the interest rate for the first time. The aim is to enhance the predictability of monetary policy. With a predictable monetary policy, market participants can react to new information in a way that contributes to stabilising developments in output and inflation. Norges Bank’s interest rate forecast is based on seeking to achieve an interest rate path that provides a reasonable balance between the objective of stabilising inflation at target and the objective of stabilising developments in output and employment within a reasonable time horizon, normally 1 - 3 years. Interest-rate setting is also assessed in the light of developments in property prices and credit. Norges Bank forecasts inflation, output and the interest rate simultaneously. There is considerable uncertainty associated with the estimates of capacity utilisation in the economy (the output gap), and there is no simple relationship between developments in capacity utilisation and developments in inflation.

Interest rates are still low among many of our trading partners, in spite of the increases in several countries as a result of rising energy prices and higher consumer price inflation. In the US, there are now expectations that the interest rate peak has been reached, and that it will be lowered in the course of summer 2007. An increase in policy rates is expected in the euro area, Sweden, the UK, Australia, Japan and Switzerland in the coming year, but the increase is expected to be somewhat smaller than a few months ago. On the whole, the framework conditions for the Norwegian economy are favourable. Strong international growth implies solid growth for the export industry. The rise in export prices is high while the rise in import prices is low. The petroleum sector is generating growth impulses to the broader economy and the interest rate level is low. However, there is little slack in the Norwegian economy. A steadily rising share of enterprises lacks the capacity to accommodate increased demand, largely because of labour shortages. This must be taken into account in the formulation of monetary policy. Monetary policy In 2001, the Government and the Storting (Norwegian parliament) adopted new economic policy guidelines in Norway, partly against the background of the experience of the 1970s and 1980s. In the period 1972 to 1986, we experienced high and variable inflation. Consumer prices rose almost twice as much as in Germany.
The SNB therefore backs up the VaR calculations with stress and scenario analyses. These simulate extreme market fluctuations and examine the impact of such fluctuations on the assets. Scenarios that have an especially severe impact on the SNB’s assets include a fall in the gold price and a depreciation of the dollar and euro. Such scenarios show that serious losses could potentially be sustained. The volatility of the SNB’s earnings therefore remains high despite the new investment universe. Experience has shown, however, that major losses tend to even themselves out in the medium term, i.e. over a period of three to five years. 2  BIS Review 46/2005  BIS Review 46/2005  3

So is second-round inflation a risk in our final assessment? The spike in oil and commodity prices adds to already present inflationary pressure. Monetary policy must therefore be pre-emptive, as well as poised. Since last year, domestic demand has been strong. The output gap is projected to close later this year. Capacity utilization has increased and hiring has become more difficult. These indicators point to excess demand that may lead to inflationary pressure. On top of that, a sustained and large supply shock amid strong demand is like adding fuel to the fire. It can unhinge inflation expectations. And price controls can only delay the inevitable price pressure. There is therefore an increase in the risk to second-round inflation which necessitates additional monetary response. A downside risk of high oil prices to global growth, and therefore Thai economic growth, also exists. However, in the central scenario, the balance of risks has clearly shifted to inflation. Our projections point to a significant risk that core inflation may breach the upper end of the band. As such, regaining poise by moving toward the neutral rate will allow us to pre-empt inflation risk. By now, you are probably wondering what the neutral rate is. Let me comment briefly on this mysterious topic. First, on the concept – the monetary policy stance is normal or neutral if aggregate output is at its potential output and the monetary policy is not exerting any pressure on growth and inflation but simply promoting their stability.
Svein Gjedrem: Management of the Government Pension Fund – Global Introductory statement by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the hearing before the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs of the Storting (Norwegian parliament), Oslo, 29 April 2009. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. *  *  *  I would like to thank the Committee for this opportunity to report on Norges Bank’s investment management in connection with the Storting’s deliberations on the Government report on the management of the Government Pension Fund – Global in 2008. On behalf of the Government, the Ministry of Finance has delegated the responsibility for the operational management of the Government Pension Fund – Global to Norges Bank. The management mandate is specified in regulations and supplementary guidelines laid down by the Ministry. A management agreement has also been entered into. This model promotes a clear division of responsibilities, transparency and professionalism. Norges Bank’s Supervisory Council – appointed by the Storting – supervises the Bank’s activities to ensure compliance with the rules and approves the Bank’s budget and accounts. In accordance with the current Norges Bank Act, the Supervisory Council organises the audit of Norges Bank, appoints the central bank auditor and lays down audit instructions. An agreement was entered into, following a tender process, with the auditing firm Deloitte AS on financial auditing of the Fund with effect from the 2007 accounting year.

But there are also opposing forces in the foreign exchange market. The basic balance deficit suggests a weaker krone. If developments in the world economy translate into lower prices for oil and other export goods, the value of the krone may also fall. If the krone depreciates, the key rate must be raised to a higher level than otherwise in order to keep inflation in check, unless slackened activity in the Norwegian economy results in lower inflation. Over time, however, the nominal exchange rate is not the main force. The main determinant of competitiveness in Norwegian business and industry and the purchasing power of the Norwegian krone is the real exchange rate. 12  BIS Review 37/2008  The real exchange rate can be measured in a number of ways, for example by consumer prices or labour costs in Norway relative to our trading partners measured in a common currency. This provides an indication of the relationship between the level of external and domestic prices, which in turn reflects developments in cost levels. In real terms, the krone has appreciated by about 10 per cent since the mid-1990s, while labour costs in a common currency have risen by close to 30 per cent more than among our trading partners. This may be partly ascribable to the cyclical expansion and the low level of household saving. But most likely the strong real krone reflects the substantial improvement in the terms of trade and productivity.