samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
We are experiencing, I believe, one of those "Franco-German moments" that will mark history, and we can now rightly celebrate it: on 18 May, a Franco-German initiative on the European stimulus package; on 21 July, a historic agreement by the European Council in Brussels on a EUR 750 billion package, supported by a united Franco-German alliance; on 20 August, the Chancellor visited the President of the Republic in Brégançon. Despite any fears, faced with the threat of the Covid crisis, Germany has clearly and unequivocally opted for Europe and the euro. However, in its early stages, the crisis appeared to distance us, due to our different abilities to respond, and sometimes in different orders. Europe has once again demonstrated in this crisis that it is stronger than is commonly believed. I will concentrate here on economic matters, because that is where my competence lies. Naturally, there are broader issues in Europe, that are concrete and emotional: those of our borders, our institutions, our military and diplomatic power, and, in a wider sense, our common identity, which is apparent to our fellow citizens. The President of the French Republic speaks of the necessary "European sovereignty". I am aware that this expression gives rise to debate. In any case, it means that Europe must not passively put up with events, in the face of the growing rivalry between the United States and China. That we can and should be proud collectively of our achievements.

We must use regulatory power to guide innovations - the example of the General Regulation on Data Protection (GDPR) , have the courage to develop an industrial policy with public-private partnerships, as in the case of artificial intelligence and batteries, and make progress, for example, on Franco-German business law. Climate change and carbon tax Lastly, the ecological transition is clearly one of our common structural priorities and carbon tax is generally considered to be the most effective instrument to fight global warming. The European agreement of 21 July provides for the Commission proposing in the first half of 2021 a "carbon border adjustment mechanism", accompanied by a "revised emissions trading system, possibly extending it to the aviation and maritime sectors." The advantage of this solution is that it provides the European Union with a resource of its own and restores fair competition between European products and imported products that have a higher carbon footprint. The success of this instrument will depend on our negotiations at the WTO, and on its more extensive integration into European policies (transport, industrial policy, etc.). ** Earlier I mentioned the difference in terminology between French and German: the French use "couple", while the Germans speak of "engine".
There is no doubt that tremendous efforts have been made in the wake of the financial crisis to reach our objective of financial stability, providing the policymakers with additional tools to build-in robustness into the global financial system, increase the loss absorption capacity of financial institutions and infrastructures, and limit the scope for contagion while new approaches to prevent systemic risk have been developed, namely macroprudential policies. However, due to the magnitude of the task, its difficulty and its complexity, global regulators had to proceed with a sequential approach, starting by the banking system where their knowhow was the best, and expanding gradually a framework to the rest of the financial system in concentric circles. As a consequence, we are currently facing three challenges that I would like to focus on: keeping the momentum for reforms, allowing for the diversity and ensuring the robustness of the global financial system. 1. Keeping the momentum  After such a long and intense conference day, you might already feel a sentiment of regulatory fatigue! Consequently, you might appreciate the feeling of regulators and financial intermediaries after more than 8 years of intense regulatory developments and debates! And yet, the latter are not completed nor their implementation! Banking regulation, which is almost complete now, will only come into force in 2018–2019, even though it has already been largely factored in by markets and banking institutions. But regulation is still under development for the rest of the financial system.

In late November, the annual growth of budget revenues was only 2 percent, almost entirely reflecting the low pace of generating the tax revenues. On the other hand, public expenditures have maintained high growth rates, accounting for 16.4 percent in November. The budget deficit reached ALL 65 billion in November. The deficit has been mostly financed through foreign borrowing and privatization receipts, dampening the pressures in the domestic financial market Rapid growth of expenditure and budget deficit during 2009 has further increased the public debt level, accounting for 58 per cent of GDP at the end of November. The Bank of Albania deems that the future budget policy orientation towards fiscal consolidation, aiming at reducing the public debt, is now a prerequisite for the macroeconomic stability in the country. As we have constantly stated, the public debt reduction will mitigate the pressure of the public sector on the financial markets, creating more room for the private sector. Consolidation of public finances will also lower the risk premiums in the economy and will raise the monetary policy effectiveness. Monetary supply slowed down further in the second half, reflecting to a great extent, the ever lower credit growth. Annual growth of private sector loan portfolio slowed down to 10 percent in November. Unlike the first six months of 2009, when credit growth curbing was more  BIS Review 11/2010  3  affected by the tightened supply, in the second half of the year the credit performance was dictated by decreased demand for loans.
However, looking ahead workers’ pressures to regain lost purchasing power might be significant, especially since upcoming wage negotiations will take place in a context of a tight labour market. The unemployment rate remained at 6.6% in December, its lowest level since the euro was launched, and firms’ perceived degree of labour shortage has also stabilised at very high levels in historical terms. Thus, we should monitor wage and mark-up development to identify the potential emergence of second-round effects on inflation. 9  This depreciatio n increased the co st o f euro area pro ducers, given that mo st impo rted inputs are deno minated in do llars, resulting in so me expo rt market share being lo st (estimated at aro und 2.5% in 2022). 10  Leiva-Leo n, D., J. Martínez-Martín and E. Ortega (2022). “Exchange Rate Sho cks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area”, International Journal of Central Banking, 18(1), pp. 239-275 11  Data fro m Indeed, an emplo yment website that aggregates jo b listings fro m tho usands o f websites, including job bo ards, staffing firms, asso ciations, and co mpany career pages. 5  The global context and the reopening of China Weaker global demand, particularly in key advanced economies, is contributing to the moderation of commodity prices on international markets and easing inflationary pressures. Economic growth in the United States continues to slow due to tighter financing conditions.

Gent Sejko: Including monetary policy and financial shocks and trends in modelling and policy analysis Address by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, to the Tenth South-Eastern European Economic Research Workshop “Including monetary policy and financial shocks and trends in modelling and policy analysis”, Tirana, 1 December 2016. * * * Dear participants, I am privileged to open the 10th South-Eastern European Economic Research Workshop organised by the Bank of Albania, and welcome all new and returning friends. I would like to congratulate Bank of Albania’ experts that present every year their research works for discussion. This year’s workshop will focus on the main topics that prevail in the economic, political and academic debates in the field of economy, finance and central banking. The topic of this workshop is: “Including monetary policy and financial shocks and trends in modelling and policy analysis". The focus was placed on these topics on the grounds that the central bank and policy decisions should take into account an increasing number of shocks that are arising not only as a consequence of economic, but also of political, legal and regulatory phenomena. The challenges that monetary policy and financial stability are facing reflect the problems of the society in the economic, social and geo-political aspects. These challenges are best reflected in the noneffective functioning of the pass-through mechanism that should transmit and amplify the positive effects of central banks’ decisions.
19/58, Republic of Slovenia 2018 Article IV Consultation, February 2019  17  Appendix Long- term challenges for current account balance Total population growth  Total population growth  (%)  (%)  5.0  4.0  10.7  3.0 0.0 2.0 1.0  -5.0 -14.2  0.0  BiH  Croatia  Montenegro  North Macedonia  Serbia  2010  2015  2020  2025  2030  2035  -3.0 1990  1995  2000  EUROPE  2005  Western Europe  2010  2015  2020  Eastern Europe  2025  2030  2035  Southern Europe  Total dependency ratio  2000  2005  Total dependency ratio  (65+/(15-64))  (65+/(15-64))  80.0  80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0  70.0 60.0  50.0 40.0 30.0  20.0 10.0 0  1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 EUROPE  Western Europe  Eastern Europe  Southern Europe  1990  1995  2000  Old dependency ratio  2005  2010  2015  2020  2025  2030  2035  2025  2030  2035  Old dependency ratio  (65+/(15-64))  (65+/(15-64))  60.0  50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0  50.0 40.0  30.0 20.0 10.0  0 1990  1995  EUROPE  2000  2005  Western Europe  2010  2015  2020  Eastern Europe  2025  2030  2035  Southern Europe  1990  18  1995  2000  2005  2010  2015  2020  Slovenia  Albania  Romania  1995  Poland  1990  Hungary  Czechia  -2.0  Bulgaria  -10.0  -1.0  Child dependency ratio  Child dependency ratio  (65+/(15-64))  (65+/(15-64))  60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0  40.0  35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0  0 1990  1995  EUROPE  2000  2005  Western Europe  2010  2015  2020  Eastern Europe  2025  2030  2035 1990  Southern Europe  19  1995  2000  2005  2010  2015  2020  2025  2030  2035  Net International Investment Position, by countries  20  Current account balance and Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Albania  BiH  5.0  0.0 -5.0 -10.0  5.0 0.2  0.0 -2.9  -5.1  -4.5  -3.3  0.0  12.0  3.0  -1.2 -1.7  -5.0 -4.1  -15.0  2000- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  Montenegro 5.0  -10.0  -9.6  -15.0 2000- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  N.Macedonia  Hungary  5.0  5.0 0.8 0.1  0.0  -0.8  -5.5 -6.1  -10.0  -13.5  -15.0  Czechia  0.0 -1.7-1.9  -5.0  -7.2  -8.3 -10.0  2000- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  -5.0  -10.0  -10.0  -15.0  Poland  0.0  -2.0 -5.0 -3.6 -3.9 -3.5  2000- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  Romania  -2.1 -6.1 -7.1  2000- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  Serbia  5.0  5.0  5.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  -3.9  -15.0 2000- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  5.0  2.0  0.9  Slovenia 10.0  0.2  -5.0 -5.7  -10.0  -5.2  -1.0  -5.0  -1.5 -3.0 -3.0 -3.2  -5.0 -4.1  -14.6 -10.0  -20.0  -0.7 -2.1  -4.4  -5.8  -15.0  -25.0  2.3  1.2  -1.4  -5.0  Croatia 5.0  -5.2  -8.8  -15.0  0.0  Bulgaria  5.0  -3.9 -5.4  -10.0  -5.0  -2.2 -2.3 -5.0 -4.1 -4.5  -2.8  -7.2  -10.0  -10.0  0.4  -0.8  -1.6 -4.4  -8.6  -4.5  -22.0  -15.0  -15.0  2000- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  -15.0  2000- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  -5.0  -0.9 -2.0  -2.1  -6.6  -10.0  -15.0  2000- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  0.0  -7.3  -17.9  2000- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  5.1  5.0  -15.0  2000- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  2000- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  Source: IMF WEO, October 2019 and NBRNM calculations.

21  -1.8  -10 2001- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018  2001- 2009- 20142008 2013 2018
This implies that, when joining the EU, the new Member States will have to comply with all of the requirements outlined in the acquis communautaire which relate to European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Moreover, following accession, they shall each have to prepare themselves for the eventual adoption of the euro. Thus it is clear that the accession process and the entry of new members into the EU will have deep and wide-ranging consequences for the ECB and the Eurosystem. Of course, meeting the Maastricht convergence criteria is not a prerequisite for joining the EU. However, the introduction of the euro certainly puts some pressure on accession countries to make progress towards fulfilling the convergence criteria. In fact, we might consider their progress towards adopting the euro as part of a continuum, encompassing three distinct stages and crucial steps. These are: EU membership, participation in ERM II, and eventual adoption of the euro. The first of these steps requires implementation of the EMU-related acquis communautaire. Then, on the date of accession, new Member States will join EMU with the status of “countries with a derogation”. From this point onwards, they will be expected not only to treat their economic policies as a matter of common concern, but also to be committed to the eventual adoption of the euro, which should be an objective both of monetary and of other economic policies. This is a direct result of the fact that, as I mentioned earlier, no new opt-out clauses are to be granted to the accession countries.

We view our policy as part of an overall economic policy aimed at creating conditions for sustainable long-term economic growth in our country. Thank you very much! 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
This monetary policy stance has meant that long-term interest rates in the advanced economies have held at very low levels, while very generous pricing in certain financial markets has been the case. Indeed, some prices are at all-time highs, in a setting in which  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  investor yield search appears to be playing a predominant role compared with other considerations based more on the fundamentals of these assets. This scenario on international money and financial markets poses risks, as it is likely to undergo abrupt changes in the face of expectations emerging over the withdrawal of monetary stimuli or, what comes down to the same, of expectations over sustainable improvements in growth rates that advise less expansionary monetary policies. Developments in and outlook for the Spanish economy In the course of 2013 the Spanish economy showed a degree of dynamism and, from the third quarter onwards, positive GDP growth rates. This trajectory has continued into 2014, meaning that the year might finalise on a path in line with the forecast forwarded in the Spanish Economic Projections Report published by the Banco de España in March, that is to say, with annual average growth of 1.2%. This recovery has also been discernible in the labour market. The pace of job destruction slackened in 2013, until showing slight job creation in the closing months of the year. The improvement has progressively strengthened to date in 2014.

When making their risk assessments, the banks test their risk models with a number of different assumptions, including the risk that asset prices which had not previously covaried suddenly completely covary. But the question is then how much these tests can govern actions. It is not certain that they will ultimately be taken sufficiently into account if they appear less reasonable and if considering them entails large costs. 3/5  There are signs that risk exposure has increased in the international financial markets. Several large international banks have increased their risks. The way their risk models are designed, they have been able to increase their exposures to higher risk investments and other types of asset without increasing the total risk measured, partly as a result of low interest rates. Financial institutions have increased their investments in high-risk bonds, in various commodities and in various types of credit derivatives. The question is whether the banks’ opportunities to sell certain risks entail their risks actually being reduced, or whether they have increased as a result of their retaining the highest, most complicated risks. The banks probably have more volatile risks in their balance sheets. The balance sheets are shrinking, but the risks are larger, calculated as a percentage. The question is what it entails when the banks sell their risks, primarily credit risks. Risks can be compared to energy, or heat. They do not disappear into thin air; they are always there somewhere.
Infrastructure finance is indeed promising, but has been promising for two decades now with little of the promise realised. There are a variety of country-specific risks – institutional and legal – that must be taken into account when operating in these markets. Managing risk and navigating a varied terrain are key to success. Singapore as the leading Asian asset management centre 37. This is where Singapore comes in. Singapore’s strong physical connectivity and trade and financial linkages with the rest of Asia make it a key node in the flow of information and ideas. It is an ideal vantage point for asset managers to understand Asia and manage pan-Asian investments. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  38. The asset management industry in Singapore is broad based. Top-tier global funds have centralised a host of critical functions in Singapore, including portfolio management, investment research, trade execution, and product structuring – across both equities and fixed income asset classes. Singapore is also seeing a flourish of alternative investment managers specialising in strategies or asset classes that provide return streams uncorrelated to the broader market, or as the industry terms it, “generating alpha”. New initiatives to develop Singapore’s capital markets 39. A key component of the broader ecosystem that supports the asset management industry in Singapore is the capital market. Over the years, MAS has been making concerted efforts to broaden and deepen Singapore’s debt capital market.

I described capital flows to emerging Asia earlier, largely in terms of cyclical factors relating to monetary policy. But there is a larger secular phenomenon underpinning these flows to Asia – the structural rebalancing of investment portfolios towards emerging economies in general, and Asia in particular. Given the size of developing Asia, there is not enough portfolio investment in Asia and not enough portfolio investment by Asia. There is scope for both to increase – dramatically. 31. First, global investors will invest more in Asia. Advanced economies represent only half of world GDP but three-quarters of global market capitalisation. A reallocation of just 5% of advanced economy equity portfolios to emerging economies translates into a potential flow of $ trillion. 32. You know the story well – strong economic growth, sound fundamentals, and favourable demographics will support the valuations of Asian assets and draw a growing tide of institutional investor interest from the rest of the world. At the same time, rapid urbanisation will mean large infrastructure needs in Asia – the ADB has estimated that Asia needs about $ trillion through 2020 to upgrade its infrastructure. This financing need cannot be met by public funds alone. Infrastructure funds are set to play an increasingly important role in the asset management landscape in Asia. 33. Second, Asian investors will invest more, both in Asia and globally.
Forging university and regional professional networks will surely be supportive of this endeavor. Visa, work permits, and regulatory requirements on foreign employment are all important issues that need to be quickly addressed to ensure that the investment environment is competitive. Over the longer term, I also see it as very crucial that we address obstacles to integration at the root cause, which is the weak integration mindset. This integration mindset means that we need to assess the benefits and costs of integration more deeply and strategize how they fit with the overall economic development plans of individual ASEAN member countries. There are dangers in allowing such an important assessment to remain vague. My concern is that many key stakeholders of ASEAN integration still view the AEC with cynicism; that life will go on, with few changes to the status quo. And this complacency is very dangerous because we may wake up and find that we are already too late to catch the rising wave of ASEAN. Distinguished Participants, The second part of this three-pronged strategy deals with human capital development to meet global competencies. My personal opinion as a CEO in the financial industry is that we need people or our human resources in the next decade to be assertive, flexible, analytical and quantitative, technology competent, as well as having strong leadership, people skills, foreign language proficiency, and cultural awareness.

Moreover, as people become global citizens, we cannot always rely on rules and regulations, or market rules of the game to bring about their right behavior. In this regard, the educational curriculum needs to embrace elements on transparency, accountability, governance, and ethics. This will help lessen the corruption problem which ranks high in the list of factors that can undermine competitive strength of any economy. While the role of public investment in education is vital, I see increasing financial constraints in this area, as well as in public health and social safety nets, because of short-term fiscal limits and lack of long-term fiscal planning in a number of countries. For education, in particular, while in the short term private sector initiatives for in-house training or vocational educational support may help bridge skill mismatch, this is unlikely to be a sustainable solution. Faced with fiscal limitations, the public sector will need to explore creative publicprivate partnerships to avoid undermining necessary developments in this important area. Ladies and Gentlemen, I would like to conclude by emphasizing that in the era of global citizenship, we should capitalize on the major driving force in advancing toward full global citizenship. For Thailand and ASEAN countries, we have the AEC as a natural stepping stone to embrace regional citizenship. Looking ahead, much work remains to be done for a number of countries to improve the readiness of human capital to evolve toward global citizenship.