samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It is not a non-stop train and it annoyingly makes many stops on the way. Every time the train stops, there are new passengers boarding the train and, as your cabin is already full, you will always have to fight to protect your seat, or else you may be forced out from your seat. Occasionally, misfortune may fall on you. Not only do you lose your seat, but you are also bumped off the train at one of the stops. While all these passengers who got bumped off the trains will naturally feel aggrieved and frustrated, they can have two kinds of responses. Some would complain to the station master about the unfair or rough way they are treated on the train and demand “justice”. However, some may decide that, since they still have the train tickets in their hands, they’d rather not waste time complaining to the station master about the fierce competition or bad luck, but they should instead try to board the next train that stops at this station. If you belong to this latter category, you may be able to find yourself a seat on the next train, or even a better seat than your previous one. However, there is a difference this time: you have to work really hard, and much harder than before, as you are a late passenger trying to board a train that is already full.

So many of you may think that you have earned a train ticket for a smooth journey to the place you are destined to go: Success. Is it so? 3. I am not sure if I know the answer, but let me depict a different scenario for you to think about. Let’s say you have a train ticket that would enable you to go through the admission gate of the train station and reach the train platform. When you are there you immediately realise that there are many trains waiting to depart. Your ticket doesn’t really tell you which train you should board and the signs on the trains are not clear either. So you will have to decide which train you should get on, without knowing whether this particular train is indeed the right one that can take you to your desired destination. But this is not the worst part. When you get on the train, you find that there are already lots of people there and that there is no seat assigned to you. All the window seats have been occupied. So you have to struggle to find a seat for yourself. And this is not the end of the story. 4. After you have settled down on your seat and begin to feel comfortable, you would expect or hope for a smooth and swift journey to your final destination: Success – however you define it. To your big surprise, this is not what it is going to be.
This is a very dramatic assumption and it matters a lot because, as we all know, debt dynamics are extremely sensitive to forecasts about future growth. Some of the implicit assumptions underlying current negative judgments seem to me to be seriously misguided. Recall what I pointed out at the start of my talk. We have recently been pleasantly surprised by growth dynamics in the euro area. Consumer confidence is almost back to pre-crisis levels; PMIs are at an all time high and GDP growth will almost certainly be above potential, on average, for the year 2011. These developments take place at a time when drastic fiscal consolidation programmes are being implemented in all countries. Positive confidence effects in the private sector are outweighing the negative impact of reductions in public expenditure. What about countries in the periphery? The Spanish growth rate swung from –3.7% in 2009 to –0.1% in 2010, despite the fact that a major austerity plan was being implemented. Spanish exports are booming, with an increase of 10% within the euro area and 19% outside the euro area in 2010. This compares very favourably with performances of other countries both inside and outside the euro area. Let me also remind you that real convergence is at play in the euro area. This process will continue and support growth in the future, contrary to over simplistic descriptions. One overlooked fact is the very fast productivity catch-up in the periphery of the euro area.

The IMF has shown that, in all advanced countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, these losses accounted for around two thirds of the deterioration in fiscal positions observed during the crisis. Fiscal deterioration was compounded, in some countries, by the size of implicit blanket guarantees, which materialized as the crisis unfolded through public money injections in the financial sector. Unfortunately, these problems were not specific to the euro area. Public debt jumped by around 30% of GDP in the United Kingdom and in the United Kingdom. Structural deficits in these countries stand at similar or higher levels than those in most parts of the euro area. This is also true for Japan. Overall, the crisis has brought to light major deficiencies in the implementation of fiscal discipline and, more generally, in the economic governance of the euro area. The founders of the euro had put in place the Growth and Stability Pact. The principles were sound. The framework was adequate. The implementation has been extremely weak. Bluntly speaking, peer pressure failed to ensure consistent and rigorous compliance with the principles which had been agreed upon. It was, and remains necessary to make a “quantum leap” in economic governance. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  What have we done? Governments are addressing these deficiencies. Significant progress has been made over the past year. At the national level, all Member States have embarked upon credible public finance consolidation plans that are already bearing fruit.
The Malaysian bond market has also been liberalised to enable foreign entities to raise ringgit and foreign currency denominated funds from our market. International issuers may thus issue multi-currency Sukuks or alternatively have the flexibility to swap domestic currency funding into other currencies. At this juncture, I'm also pleased to inform you that a Malaysian corporation recently issued the largest-ever sukuk issue in the world amounting to equivalent USD4.7 billion which was two times oversubscribed. This hybrid sukuk which has  BIS Review 23/2008  3  both equity and debt natures is one of the several innovative instruments that has been issued in the sukuk market. Malaysia's development of Islamic finance has contributed positively to our overall financial system in several respects. This has resulted to a more diversified financial system that has increased its overall resilience. Secondly, it has increased our international linkages. Thirdly, it has also contributed to greater financial inclusion particularly in the area of financing for small and medium scale enterprises and micro financing. Then, enhanced with the in-built checks and balances, it contributes towards financial stability. Finally, Islamic finance has become a new area of growth that has become very vibrant in generating income, wealth and employment. Opportunities in Sukuk In the current liberalised and globalised environment, Islamic finance is now at the threshold of a new dimension in strengthening financial inter-linkages between nations in the global economy.

I don’t want to meddle in a decision that is for the British people to make. However, as a citizen and a European, of course I want the United Kingdom to remain in the European Union, to which it brings so much. That said, it is normal for us to prepare for any possible scenario, and its impact on euro area banks. If the other scenario prevails and the United Kingdom remains in Europe, were you reassured by the results of the Brexit negotiations between London and its partners? We had two main concerns. One was to make sure that the discussion would not make further euro area integration more difficult. The second was that it wouldn’t fragment the single market for financial services and strip the capital markets union project of its substance, notably the single rulebook for financial regulation. The final agreement is a balanced one and we have been reassured, even though ambiguities remain, of course. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
This cluster, accounting for 17% of GDP, comprises retail and food services as well as construction activities. The real estate and retail segments will be weighed down by subdued consumer sentiment and the shift to overseas retailers via e-commerce. Public construction will be supported by infrastructure projects, such as the ongoing extensions to the rail network, but private construction is likely to remain subdued. Inflation has come in within expectations. Both core and headline inflation are on a modest uptrend but underlying price pressures remain benign. MAS Core Inflation is projected to average 1-2% in 2017, up from 0.9% in 2016. The rise in core inflation since Q4 2016 has largely reflected higher prices of oil-related items. Domestic sources of inflation remain contained partly because the pass-through of business costs to consumer prices has been quite weak. CPI-All Items inflation is expected to come in at 0.5-1.5%, up from −0.5% last year. Accommodation cost will likely continue to exert a drag on headline inflation Generalised demand-induced price pressures have been relatively muted for some time. But MAS is closely watching developments for the rest of this year, especially if upside risks to GDP growth materialise. MONETARY POLICY The current neutral stance of monetary policy has helped to stem disinflation pressures in the economy. MAS has adopted a 0% p.a. appreciation path for the $ policy band since April 2016. This neutral stance has facilitated a turnaround in headline CPI inflation, which had been negative for 24 consecutive months.

But if any new relevant information or leads arise from ongoing investigations in Singapore or elsewhere, rest assured MAS will re-open the files and pursue the matter. At the same time, MAS has intensified its supervision of financial institutions that have higher inherent money laundering risks or control areas found wanting from past inspections. The inspections go beyond rules-based compliance to focus on risk understanding and 6 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  management. In our inspections, we examine: - whether the Board and senior management have effective oversight of money laundering/terrorism financing risks; - whether the financial institution takes timely action to properly resolve risk control concerns; and - whether there is good risk understanding, adequate risk culture and systems throughout the organisation, to support the proper execution of risk controls. Sustained effort and unstinting vigilance will be needed on the part of industry players to manage the risk of illicit finance and keep our financial centre clean. CREATING VALUE FOR THE ECONOMY MAS is reputed as a tough, “no-nonsense” regulator. But we also seek to be progressive and proactive in developing the financial sector – to be dynamic, innovative, and purposeful. We have said much before about our strategies to help grow various activities in the financial sector. We have also shared on many occasions our FinTech agenda and efforts to facilitate innovation in the financial sector.
Pablo Hernández de Cos: Consistent economic policies - a prerequisite for macroeconomic stability Speech by Mr Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the Enrique Fuentes Quintana conference cycle, organised by the Real Academia de Ciencias Morales y Políticas, Madrid, 16 January 2023. *** Ladies and gentlemen, I would first like to thank the Real Academia de Ciencias Morales y Políticas and its Chairman, Benigno Pendás, for inviting me to participate in this conference cycle in honour of Enrique Fuentes Quintana. The idea of a cycle like this could not be any more relevant at such a complex economic and geopolitical juncture. In my opinion, one of Professor Fuentes Quintana's greatest contributions is helping to create a culture of macroeconomic stability in Spain. Continued economic growth that improves citizens' welfare is impossible without price stability, without budgetary stability and without financial stability. Enrique Fuentes Quintana – to whom, as a former professor of mine, I am intellectually indebted – helped create and spread this message not only through his actions as Deputy Prime Minister and by explaining it didactically to the entire nation in his now famous televised address a few days after being sworn in, but also because he garnered a following and helped invigorate institutions like this Royal Academy, so that those teachings would live on today and guide and inspire us. My address today will give a brief overview of the key current European economic developments in order to contextualise monetary policy conduct.

In some countries, where systemic risks have increased appreciably, it may also be appropriate to apply macroprudential policies that enhance the financial system's resilience. Their procyclicality, however, should be avoided. Vulnerabilities and risks in the non-bank financial sector have also increased and should be monitored closely. At the same time, headway needs to be made in improving this sector's regulatory framework, in particular to address leverage and liquidity mismatches. An incomes agreement As I was saying, on the information available, there is no evidence of second round effects occurring at present, at least not on a widespread basis. Euro area wages have remained subdued. In fact, real wages have declined significantly. However, wage growth is gaining pace, underpinned by strong labour markets and the effect of inflation on wage demands, both of which are expected to continue. Profit margins have also remained moderate overall, albeit with much heterogeneity across countries, firms and sectors. Nevertheless, the pass-through of costs to final prices has also been increasing and has been higher than in previous episodes. Moreover, as I said before, the longer the current high inflation persists, the more likely these second-round effects are. To avoid this, it is essential that economic agents accept as inevitable the loss of income caused by the rise in the cost of imported commodities.
For instance: What kind of financial risks do climate and environmental threats pose for the finance industry? And could these risks weaken the resilience of the financial system, or indeed affect macroeconomic variables and monetary policy? The SNB’s goal in joining the NGFS is to engage in dialogue and share knowledge in order to better understand – and anticipate – the potential impact of climate risks. Page 3/3

There is a need to understand our competitive position, amplify our strengths and double our efforts in areas that we need to catch up. 16. For this purpose, the Financial Secretary tasked the HKMA in 2014, with the assistance of consultants, to conduct a reality check on Hong Kong’s competitiveness vis-avis our competitors and to devise a strategy to promote Hong Kong as the CTC hub in the region. 17. The reality check shows Hong Kong excels in many of the key factors that determine the competitiveness of CTCs. In terms of strengths as a business location, Hong Kong ranks third in the World Bank’s “Ease of Doing Business” ranking and third in the 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Global Financial Centres Index after only London and New York. We are also a leader in terms of access to capital markets. Hong Kong is a major international banking centre, with the presence of over 70 of the world’s top 100 banks. Our equity market is one of the most active in initial public offers. Benefited from the recent launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the market capitalization of the Hong Kong Exchange has reached almost $ trillion as of two days ago. As of March 2015, it was the third largest exchange in Asia and the sixth largest in the world.
It would be better to reduce the level of the loan-to-value ceiling that Finansinspektionen recommends the banks to stay below, or to raise the banks’ risk weights for mortgages.16 Another alternative would be to reduce the tax deductions for interest payments somewhat. Unlike repo-rate increases, these measures are aimed directly at mortgages. These are of course measures that do not lie within the Riksbank’s mandate, but it is in everyone’s interest to ensure that the risks associated with the Swedish housing market are managed effectively. So why am I against using the repo rate to influence housing prices and household indebtedness? The main reason is that the costs – in the form of inflation below the target  15  For example, Borio and Drehmann (2009) present an indicator of financial crisis based on trend deviations for private loans as a percentage of GDP and property prices in the paper “Assessing the risk of banking crises – revisited”. The latter components are intended to capture the likelihood and magnitude of a fall in property prices. 16  Finansinspektionen has recently proposed a floor of 15 per cent for risk weights for mortgages. This floor could be raised if there seems to be a need to dampen the banks’ lending for housing purposes. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  and unemployment – appear to be high in relation to rather uncertain gains.

It is important to understand, however, that the stated aim of consistently low inflation is not simply an end in itself: low inflation is a measure - a barometer if you like - of our success in keeping overall demand in the economy in line with supplyside capacity, so that the underlying aim is economic stability in that much wider sense. BIS Review 33/2001  1  Now it has to be said that this emphasis on low inflation as the objective of monetary policy was not without its critics. Some people argued that "any fool can control inflation simply by holding back growth and employment. It is a recipe" they said "for economic stagnation". Well that has not been our experience since inflation targeting was introduced. In fact we've experienced the longest period of continuous and relatively stable quarter by quarter growth since quarterly records began, with average annual growth at around 3% over the whole period compared with our long term trend rate of 2¼2½%. Employment has steadily increased, and unemployment has fallen to its lowest level for 25 years. While the rate of inflation has been consistently relatively close either side of the Government's 2½% target - the lowest rate that I suspect most of us can remember. This experience demonstrates at least to my mind - that there is no necessary trade-off between growth and stability - certainly in the medium and longer term, rather the reverse.
Resulting from the structural optimisation held in 2014, the Bank of Russia cut 3,500 jobs or 5.3% and its workforce amounted to 61,800 employees as of early 2015. I would like to note that the number of employees was reduced, while the Bank of Russia obtained vast powers as a megaregulator. However, we will continue reducing the workforce. In conclusion I would like to say that the Bank of Russia faces challenging tasks in a challenging period in the country’s history. We completely assume our responsibility. I am convinced that there are all the prerequisites to put the economy on the track of sustainable growth while ensuring the necessary macroeconomic and financial stability in joining our efforts. Thank you very much for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5

Now, the last point I would like to comment on in a little more detail is an issue the Speaker 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  has already raised, and one we are very concerned about. This is the issue of stock market development. This market is undergoing drastic and rapid changes. Retail investment is becoming a mass phenomenon, with the numbers of retail investors growing very rapidly. In two years alone, the number of individuals who opened brokerage accounts rose more than fourfold to 8.5 million people (equalling the number of accounts). This is a positive development, which we all acknowledge, and the real sector is poised to benefit from it. Still, our concern is about people. Do they really understand the risks of the stock market? Is there enough transparency in the operations of financial institutions and their offerings? It was only deposits that consumers dealt with until recently. The deposit is a fairly simple and reliable product with up to 1.4m insurance coverage. At this juncture, however, deposit interest rates are in decline, as are other interest rates in the economy, including loan rates, which makes people try their hand at the stock market. With many of them being inexperienced, we can ill afford a stock market that has deceived their expectations. We have passed a non-qualified investor protection law, which we previously had a thorough discussion about at the Federation Council.
When the reallocation mechanism is working, the transfer of capital and labour from the less productive to the more productive pulls up the level of productivity in the economy and reduces the divergence between firms. The high degree of divergence between firms at present implies that this reallocation mechanism is working significantly less powerfully now than before the crisis. This can also be seen in the proportion of loss-making firms which stands at around 20% higher than its long-run average. 2 Company liquidations also remain low. So there is still more than a hint of ‘zombiness’ in the corporate sector. 2  4  Changes in 2002 to the HMRC’s preferred creditor status means that the proportion of loss-making firms might not return to its long-run average. BIS central bankers’ speeches  The damage to the banking system has certainly played a large part in this. A wellfunctioning banking system is a key part of the reallocation mechanism. It allocates capital efficiently to its most productive use and matches risk to reward. A badly damaged one, recovering slowly from a period on life support does not play that role well. And the exceptional stance of monetary policy that has been necessary to cushion the fall of the economy and to provide the platform for recovery may also be part of the story here by reducing the pressure on poorly-performing firms. As an aside, I want to make a brief comment in the context of the other part of my job: financial stability.

I want to talk a little about how we have been able to grow relatively strongly over the past couple of years despite very weak productivity growth; but why that is unlikely to be possible over the coming years. And why we expect productivity to improve – albeit moderately – in the future. And in doing so I will also talk about why the UK’s productivity performance has been so puzzlingly weak, not just in the depths of the crisis and recession but in the recovery and expansion that has been underway since the middle of 2013; and whether the boom and bust of the financial sector can help us to understand the UK’s recent productivity performance. The importance of productivity Productivity growth matters hugely. In the end it is the key determinant of rising living standards. For 18 centuries – from the year 1AD to 1800 when the industrial revolution started – living standards in the West were fairly stagnant. It is because of the step change in BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  productivity growth launched by the industrial revolution that living standards are now 20 times higher than they were then. 1 Increases in population and the labour force can make the national economy bigger. But in the end only productivity growth – producing more output relative to input – can consistently raise GDP per person. Central banks like the Bank of England foster monetary and financial stability, which support investment and productivity growth.