samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Their levels of efficiency, profitability and solvency have placed them, moreover, in a position of relative strength to withstand this crisis. Accordingly, and in the light of the events currently unfolding daily in the international financial system, I wish to make a call in my capacity as governor of the Banco de España for calm, and to reiterate my confidence in the Spanish financial system, which is well managed, regulated and supervised. I can assure you that at present there is no threat to Spanish depositors' savings. All these considerations on the international financial crisis add great uncertainty to the outlook for growth in the Spanish economy. The information available points to practically zero or even negative quarter-on-quarter rates of change in the second half of the year, and to the extension of the adjustment into 2009, with rates of increase in output that are more difficult to gauge but which will probably also be weak. The ongoing correction of residential investment may be expected to intensify, since the figures for work under way will show next year that housing starts have ground to a halt. It is likewise foreseeable that the slowdown in consumption will continue, due above all to the weakness of employment, and that business investment will mirror the decline in activity. Accordingly, the contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth might turn negative, and would only be relieved by the external sector if the buoyancy of exports and, as seems likely, the slowdown in imports continue.

Ravi Menon: Introducing Agustín Carstens Introductory remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Monetary Authority of Singapore Lecture 2013, Singapore, 5 February 2013. *  *  *  Dr Agustin Carstens, Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong, Ambassadors, distinguished guests, friends and colleagues, good morning. 1. Welcome to seventh MAS Lecture. 2. Since its launch in March 2000, MAS Lecture has provided platform for distinguished members of international financial community to offer perspectives on significant economic and financial issues of the day. 3. And today, we are honoured to have as our speaker, Dr Agustin Carstens, Governor of the Banco de Mexico. Dr Carstens has an outstanding record of service and achievement in his country as well as on the international scene. 4. He was a Deputy Managing Director at International Monetary Fund between 2003 and 2006. From 2006 to 2009, he was Mexico’s Minister for Finance. And in 2009, he was appointed Governor of Banco de México, returning to an institution where he had started his career and served with distinction in several key positions. 5. Dr Carstens’ topic today is The Quest for Successful Policy Responses to Sovereign Crises. It is a topic that he is eminently qualified to expound upon. 6. As a former Minister for Finance, he would be familiar with issues related to sovereign debt and fiscal policy. And as a life-long central banker, he has dealt with crises first-hand.
In Region East, the rate of growth in manufacturing is somewhat lower than earlier this year, while growth in the building and construction sector is increasing. Residential construction is still driving activity in this sector. Although commercial building activity now appears to be picking up in other parts of the country, this does not as yet apply to Region East. Business sector demand for services is rising. The market for commercial services and IT and telecommunications services is showing marked improvement. The retail trade sector reports rising demand, particularly for consumer durables such as cars and furniture. Our contacts in services and retail trade report a moderate increase in investments in the year ahead. Signals from the regional network indicate that employment is continuing to increase in the building and construction sector, while manufacturing reports a slight decline. Employment in the service sector is rising for the first time since the network was established in October 2002. Directorate of Labour figures show that unemployment has fallen most in Region South and Region East since the beginning of 2004. In Region East, an important sector is commercial services, accounting for close to 15 per cent of employment. It is in this sector, in addition to manufacturing, that unemployment has fallen most on a nationwide basis. Since July, oil prices have varied between USD 34 and 52, the highest nominal levels recorded. Measured in real prices, oil prices are nonetheless clearly lower than the levels recorded in the beginning of the 1980s.

Likewise, a fall in oil prices does not have an impact on the domestic  BIS Review 66/2004  1  economy, but results in a lower accumulation of foreign assets. The Fund thus acts as a buffer against disturbances. By building up the Fund, the aim of ensuring that several generations will enjoy the benefits of our petroleum wealth is also taken into account. In 2001, the Storting adopted new economic policy guidelines in Norway. At the same time as the inflation target was introduced in monetary policy, a strategy was drawn up for the use of petroleum revenues over the government budget, i.e. the fiscal rule. The fiscal rule is designed to prevent swings in the petroleum sector from spreading to the mainland economy. This ensures that petroleum revenues are phased in at a steady pace. The guideline specifying that only the real return on the Petroleum Fund is to be used means that the capital in the Fund is not depleted over time. Norges Bank has no set target for the level of the exchange rate. Nevertheless, developments in the krone are of considerable importance to interest-rate setting because the exchange rate has an impact on inflation and output. An important channel for monetary policy is the foreign exchange market and the krone exchange rate. Although the krone fluctuates, the krone exchange rate is not particularly unstable compared with other countries’ currencies. The krone exchange rate is the price of our currency measured in a foreign currency.
Ardian Fullani: Effects of the exchange rate regime Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the lecture of the Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Mr Durmus Yilmaz, entitled "Current Global Financial Crisis and Recent Developments in the Turkish Economy and Monetary Policy", Istanbul, 24 September 2009. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It is my great pleasure to give the greeting speech in this joint meeting, in which our dear and honourable friend, the Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Mr. Durmus Yilmaz, will address very important theoretical and practical issues related to the most recent global developments, sharing at the same time his experience in Turkey. The global financial crisis hit all the advanced economies severely. It certainly affected the emerging economies of South-East Europe, our two countries are part of. The contraction of global economic growth, the decline in foreign trade, the higher risk premiums, the interrupted functioning of the credit system and the rush to get liquidity affected our economies as well. These economies remain closely related to the Euro area economy through a number of trade and financial channels. The response of fiscal and monetary policies to this crisis is of prime importance; this aspect will be thoroughly elaborated by our dear friend.

In 2007, the Kwacha appreciated against the major international currencies with the exception of the euro. Against the US dollar, the Kwacha appreciated by 7.2% compared with a depreciation of 20.7% in 2006. This was attributed largely to higher inflows of foreign exchange on the market due to increased export receipts, which largely reflected high copper prices and the continued participation of foreign portfolio investors in the domestic Government securities market. The depreciation of the Kwacha against the euro can be attributed to significant gains of the euro against the US dollar and other major currencies, supported mainly by relatively buoyant growth prospects in the euro area. 2  BIS Review 76/2008  2.5  Banking sector environment  The overall financial condition and performance of the banking sector has been satisfactory, as reflected in adequate capitalisation and most banks meeting their minimum regulatory capital requirements. With 13 commercial banks in operation comprised of both local and foreign, investment opportunities are immense. The Government through the Bank of Zambia continues to modernise the overall commercial banking environment, by endorsing various legislation to promote safe, sound and efficient operations and development of not only the banking sector but the financial system as a whole. This is evidenced by enhanced financial stability and the emergence of a number of financial institutions offering an array of financial services.
That is, both current and future residents are willing to pay the tax cost of servicing this debt because of the benefits that they receive from the services supported by that debt. Now consider a different scenario – one in which the jurisdiction is borrowing to pay for a current year operating deficit. This kind of borrowing is inconsistent with running a balanced budget, which is in principle required in all but one state. But, as people in this room are well aware, states and localities can often find ways to “get around” balanced budget requirements if they are determined to do so. One example of this was New York City in the 1960s and early 1970s, where annual operating deficits were repeatedly financed with shortterm debt, until the fiscal crisis exploded in 1974–1975. The key distinction between these two types of borrowing is that in the former case an asset is producing services that help to offset the cost of the debt, but this is not so in the latter case. Indeed, using debt to finance current operating deficits is equivalent to asking future taxpayers to help finance today’s public services. When this occurs, it means that the fiscal surplus offered by the jurisdiction in the future will be diminished by the value of these additional debts. That is, in the future, the cost of servicing this debt will drive a wedge between the taxes paid by households and businesses, and the current services provided to them.

But they have grown markedly since 2008 and, with the search for yield, have become active in more illiquid and volatile markets while still in the majority of cases promising daily liquidity to their investors. We do therefore have to ask not just whether individual funds are properly managed and can cope with redemption pressures. We also have to ask whether this increasingly important element of market-based finance, as a whole or in large part, would under stress transmit pressure to the rest of the system, for example, through fire sales of assets. And whether there needs to be a stronger link between a fund’s promise of liquidity to its investors and the nature of the assets in which it is invested. The Financial Stability Board and IOSCO are now taking forward important work to address these broader potentially systemic risks. This issue illustrates more generally that as markets innovate and market-based finance develops we need to remain very alert to possible systemic implications and keep our eye on the management of risk. The UK exit from the European Union  I have discussed the fundamental challenges around ethics and risk that are crucial to building societal trust in and support for modern, international financial markets. I am however conscious that I am the guest tonight of the Association for Financial Markets in Europe and the clue is in the entire name.
I believe this is one of the major structural reforms in the Turkish economy, especially in terms of its effects on inflation. Of course, independence is not a concept that can be achieved via the implementation of law alone. It is a concept that policy practices have a great influence upon. Dear participants, Having mentioned the two milestones in the notion of central banking, I’d now like to continue with the challenges of central banking in emerging economies combined with the Turkish experience in terms of monetary policy implementations. Although objective functions are similar in financially liberalized and well-functioning market economies, the transmission of monetary policy actions on economies certainly differs between industrialized countries and emerging market economies. Accordingly, there is a wide range of views among economists on how monetary policy decisions influence economies. If we add the uncertainties faced by the internal dynamics of emerging market economies to the picture, the impact of decisions taken by central banks might differ from one country to another both in terms of the nature and the time and even from one period of time to another for the same country. First, it is important to note that in the design and implementation of monetary policy, the understanding of structural changes is essential since the impacts of monetary policy decisions in a given economy depend on its structural changes and macroeconomic environment 2 . On the other hand, it is clear that emerging economies like Turkey are subject to structural changes more frequently than any other developed economy.

Durmuş Yilmaz: Central banking in emerging economies – the Turkish experience Speech by Mr Durmuş Yilmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the “International Conference on Economics”, Ankara, 12 September 2006. *  *  *  Dear professors, colleagues, and guests, I am very pleased to participate in such a conference covering a broad range of economic issues and attended by many distinguished academicians from different countries. It is also a great pleasure to deliver a speech on the topic of central banking in emerging economies and the Turkish experience. Dear guests, Given the wide range of issues related to central banking in emerging economies and the limited time available, I have decided to limit the extent of my remarks today. I’d like to talk about the challenges we face as today’s central bankers in emerging market countries, mainly in the context of the Turkish experience. However, before embarking on this subject, let me first of all step back and take a look at the evolution of central banking, especially in the recent past. There is no doubt about that throughout the 20th century, central banking has undergone a tremendous transformation both in numerical terms and institutional aspects. At the beginning of the last century, for example, there were just 15 central banks in the world.
Likewise, in September and October 2008, at the peak of the world financial crisis, the spreads of the peso and dollar rates increased significantly. In scenarios of financial stress, it is imperative to align market rates with the MPR, because the latter may cease to act as a benchmark for the financial system. Therefore, the first actions we took were to provide the necessary liquidity and ensure that the financial system could continue operating as usual (figure 6). 2  BIS Review 145/2009  The timing of the interest rate cut can be subject to debate. It is possible that, with the information we have today, we could have done it sooner. But I must insist that monetary policy decisions are made with the information available at each moment in time, so it is useful to refresh some facts. In December 2008, we entered the monetary policy meeting with an annual inflation rate of 8.9%. The market expected the MPR to be at 6.25% and annual inflation to be at 3.9% by December 2009. Thus, despite the downward bias of monetary policy, the MPR was not reduced until January, and began a process rate cuts with a speed and magnitude unexpected by the market (table 1). This is how, after accumulating signals that the inflation phenomenon had ended and was strongly reversing, we began reducing the MPR, and we did it with vigor, taking it to the level we believe is the minimum it can take without jeopardizing the normal functioning of the money market.

Figure 6 Interest rates in pesos and dollars in the local market (percentage) 14  14  12  12  10  10  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  Jan.08  Apr.08  Jul.08  Oct.08  Stock Exchange-90 days  Jan.09  Apr.09  Jul.09  Oct.09  Libor + 90-day on-shore spread  Sources: Bloomberg and Central Bank of Chile. 8  BIS Review 145/2009  Table 1 Monetary policy rate and expectations according to EES (percentage) Actual level  Expected for Expected 2 same month months ahead  Expected for Dec.09  Oct. 2008  8.25  8.50  8.50  7.00  Dec. 2008  8.25  8.25  7.75  6.25  Feb. 2009  4.75  6.25  5.00  4.00  Nov. 2008  8.25  Jan. 2009  8.25  7.25  Mar. 2009  8.25  7.50  2.25  6.75  3.13  2.50  6.63 5.50  2.00  Source: Economic Expectations Survey (EES), Central Bank of Chile.
In the USA it has fallen in three consecutive months and in the euro area it fell to 2.1 per cent in November. In Sweden, inflation fell to 4.0 per cent in October, but our assessment is that it has fallen significantly in November here too (see Figure 11). Inflation is high but is declining rapidly One of the issues that we have had to take note of during the year has been the considerable fluctuation in the prices of food and energy. One of the reasons that we increased the interest rate in the period up to the autumn was to prevent the price increases that started on the world market spreading to other areas via price-setting and wage formation. During the year, I have argued that it did not appear to be especially likely that short-term increases in the prices of food and energy would push up wages by leading to demands for compensation for the price increases. The slowdown in growth and the weakening of the labour market are factors that weighed against such a scenario. There are also three-year agreements on large sections of the labour market that regulate agreed pay increases and these do not contain, as was the case in the 1970s and 1980s and is still the case in some other countries, price development guarantees that provide automatic compensation for price increases.

Similarly, after an appreciation a situation may arise whereby a movement of the exchange rate back to the initial range may require that interest rates be reduced to such a low level that this results in higher inflation. However, this would weaken the basis for exchange rate stability over time. Hence, Norges Bank cannot with open eyes orient its policy instruments towards triggering higher inflation or a deflationary recession. If a situation arises whereby Norges Bank is not able to return the exchange rate to  BIS Review 51/1999  2  its initial range without such consequences, the Bank will inform the government authorities that measures other than those available to the central bank are required. The present exchange rate range has more or less prevailed for more than ten years. On the basis of its analyses, Norges Bank does not find grounds to maintain that this range is not the appropriate one. Interplay between policy areas There are considerable differences between Norway and other industrial countries in the structure of the economy, the organisation of decision-making processes and the formulation of economic policy. In Norway, income and wage determination is fairly centralised; a number of fora to foster cooperation between the social partners have been established, as has special legislation which makes it easier to resolve labour conflicts than in many other countries. The central government budget is used more actively to stabilise economic developments, partly because the Norwegian state has substantially greater economic leeway than other countries.
Somewhat paradoxically, bearing in mind how slow progress has been, the objectives of attracting institutional investors, improving the allocation of resources, introducing a safe European asset and reinforcing the international role of the euro are more prevalent than ever. Specific progress, though limited, has at least been made. For instance, most work in terms of the EU-wide harmonisation of investment and saving products has now been agreed, including the definition of a pan-European individual pension product. 9/10  However, the complexity of the project calls for greater regulatory and fiscal harmonisation efforts, in particular regarding the taxation of capital. As a case in point, in the EU there are still more than 90 types of forms in different languages for tax refunds. This might seem rather unimportant but, often, these administrative formalities are a major obstacle to investment by market participants. Against this background, mention may be made of the report published in October 2019, during the Finnish presidency, by the so-called ´Next CMU group´8. This comprised highlevel representatives of industry who, at the request of the EU finance ministers, evaluated the progress of this project, proposing a series of measures in order to re-launch it.9 Conclusion. Allow me to conclude. Throughout its history, the EU has moved towards a greater level of economic and political integration that has provided clear social and economic benefits. Yet the pace of this movement has not been constant.

To restore stability to the financial system, the most immediate step taken was to ensure that financial institutions have adequate capital to withstand future risks. The sources of capital were to come from the private sector including the original shareholders and new partners, both Thai and foreign. As it turns out, in some cases, the authorities did eventually provide a recapitalisation scheme. Nevertheless, this scheme was not much utilized by banks. In fact, only 74 billion baht of the scheme was actually used. Another important step taken to stabilize the financial system was to raise the prudential and supervision standards such as the rules on loan classification, provisioning, asset valuation, just to name a few examples, to be in line with international standards. As a result, commercial banks in Thailand have gradually recovered from the crisis. Here are some facts and numbers. ·  The banking sector now has a capital adequacy ratio of 11.9%. ·  The Thai banks recorded a better result in the first quarter of this year. They turned in a profit of 1.9 billion compared to a loss of 39 billion baht in the same period last year, as loan provision expenses declined significantly. This is partly due to the large provisioning and loss recognition, which were already taken last year. In addition, there has been substantial progress in debt restructuring the Thai banks recorded.