samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Amongst other things that means: they want settlement that occurs closer to real time (ie T+0) to minimise settlement and operational risk exposures and economise on collateral usage; they want to deal with fewer separate intermediaries, systems and data protocols – getting closer to a single seamless experience across sectors, border, currencies and timezones; and they want to be able to control a single global pool of collateral and assets, with access to a single comprehensive view of their data in real time. An important question is how far this demand for convergence is met through further industry consolidation, and how far it is met through improving the ability of still-separate systems to operate seamlessly with one another (so-called “interoperability”). A key enabler of this change will be new technology. This may take many forms, including real-time computing, the cloud and messaging standards. But of course discussion at the moment is dominated by the potential of Distributed Ledger Technology, or “DLT”. At its most extreme, DLT is quite revolutionary. The “utopia” described in Euroclear and Oliver Wyman’s  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  recent paper 8 would replace the current cat’s cradle of systems with a single, distributed network in which single pools of stock moved seamlessly in real time against central bank money, between and across borders, with only one set of reconciliations to perform, a single global data set available to each user, with integrated reporting and regulatory oversight and spectacular resilience characteristics.

Although most countries now have well-functioning modern Central Securities Depositories, the structures below this top layer for providing posttrade services in securities markets remain in many cases extraordinarily complex and balkanised. Multiple tiers of custodians and sub-custodians, issuing agents, correspondent banks, clearing members, registrars and brokers – many operating on a solely national basis – provide an overlapping web of services to separate pools of market participants, using different operating procedures, systems and databases. That siloised model delivers settlement and collateral movements which, though much smoother than they were twenty years ago, are still typically measured in days rather than minutes or hours, and require multiple reconciliations – posing fixed costs, raising settlement and operational risks, tying up collateral, reducing transparency and posing barriers to entry. These segmented structures have not arisen by chance – in many cases they reflect the differing needs of market participants, variations in national practice and regulatory rules, and legacy systems. But they stand in the way of establishing a genuinely efficient international capital market. And they are now under unprecedented pressure from three sources: demand, technology and regulation. The strongest demand pressures come from the largest users of capital markets, who need to find further sharp cost savings if they are to deliver improved return on equity to investors.
This is a diagnostic on the diversity of a bank’s business model – whether it is engaged in investment as well as commercial banking. Some of these trading assets will also be complex and hence difficult to price and trade – so-called Level 2 and 3 assets. As Chart 3 shows, the average SIFI had a trading book of around a quarter of assets in 2006. For the largest, this was closer to around 50% of assets. 7  See BCBS (2014). 8  Notional exposures are likely to be a poor proxy of the underlying risk on this portfolio, but provide an indication of the scale of gross derivative positions. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Since the crisis, there is little evidence of these complexities having reversed. Chart 4 updates the four metrics using end-2013 data. The balance sheet of the average SIFI has not shrunk. In fact, it had risen to around $ trillion by end-2013. For the largest SIFI, it was around $ trillion. The pattern is even more striking off balance sheet. For the average SIFI, the derivatives book has risen by over 50% to over $ trillion by 2013. For the largest, it had risen to $ trillion. On the other complexity metrics, the number of legal entities for the average SIFIs is essentially unchanged comparing 2006 and 2013.

These dynamic properties include non-linearity; discontinuities in responses to shocks; amplifying feedback effects; and so-called “emergent” system-wide behaviour which is difficult to predict from the behaviour of any one element. These properties of complex systems typically give rise to irregular, and often highly nonnormal, statistical distributions for these systems over time. This manifests itself as much fatter tails than a normal distribution would suggest. In other words, system-wide interactions and feedbacks generate a much higher probability of catastrophic events than Gaussian distributions would imply (Newman (2005), Gabaix (2009)). They may also result in distributions which are multi-modal, consistent with models of multiple equilibria (Bisin et al (2011)). The topology and wiring of these complex systems appears, perhaps predictably, to have a crucial bearing on their resilience to shocks. Many complex networks have been found, in practice, to exhibit a “scale-free” property (Barabasi and Albert (1999)). That is to say, they comprise a core set of nodes with a large number of connections and a large set of peripheral nodes with few connections. There is a core-periphery, or hub-and-spokes, network configuration. This scale-free property has been found in everything from food webs to the World Wide Web, from eco-systems to economic systems, from synapses to cities, from social networks to financial networks (Jackson (2010)). These scale-free topologies have important, if subtle, implications for system resilience. For example, core-periphery models have been found to be very robust, at a systemic level, to random shocks.
Now, we are seeing a pick-up of consumption of durable goods as confidence increases, which is aided in part by the continued strong growth of farm income by 25.8 percent during the first two months of 2008. Private investment, an important growth engine, had been held back over the past few years. However, private investment indicators have risen steady since the second half of last year, prior to the pick-up in consumption, reflecting the continued high capacity utilization well above the 70 percent mark. Now that the Government has announced the clear implementation plan for public investment over the next 5 years, the public sector’s commitment to invest heavily where it matters most should help boost business confidence for investment. Turning to the external sector, this year, the moderating net external demand would result from the anticipated slowdown of the global economy, linked to the US economic and financial downturns through the international trade channel. At the same time, agricultural exports are expected to increase in line with higher prices and global demands. During the first two months of 2008, while the value of exports grew strongly by 24.5 percent, the value of imports increased more rapidly by 36.2 percent, resulting in a small trade deficit. However, we expect the overall trade balance in 2008 to remain in surplus due to the expansion of exports to new markets.

27.11.2020  Opening address of the 19th Conference – Club de Gestión de Riesgos de España Margarita Delgado Deputy Governor  Introduction Many thanks to the Risk Management Club for their kind invitation to open this annual conference. We are now into its nineteenth edition that, inevitably, will focus on the new challenges in the aftermath of COVID-19. The title of this conference refers to the “new world” that will be awaiting us after overcoming the crisis caused by the pandemic. Needless to say, we all wish that this happens as soon as possible. It may seem a little excessive to talk of a “new world” after the pandemic, but I believe to some extent it will be. We should remember that crises are periods of change, in which what is established is called into question. Each crisis is certainly different from previous ones. Or rather it should be different, at least if we supervisors, regulators and banks learn from the past and avoid making the same mistakes. In any event, it seems we have now been hearing the word “crisis” more than ever for over a decade. Until relatively recently, when we referred to “the crisis” we had the global financial crisis in mind. Now, sadly, we must clarify which crisis we are talking about. It could be said that the society we live in may be the result of how we have tackled and resolved each of the crises we have faced.
Chile) External prices (in $  1.9 2.9 3.1 2.5 1.5 6.7 1.8 -1.5 -2.7  4.7 3.3 3.4 2.8 2.2 6.5 1.7 1.1 2.4  LME copper price $ WTI oil price $ Brent oil price $ Gasoline parity price $ Libor $ (nominal, 90 days)  221 43 44 389 0.7  255 50 53 453 1.5  Sep.17 Report  2018 (f) Jun.17 Report  2019 (f) Sep.17 Report  Sep.17 Report  (annual change, percent) 8.5 -0.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 2.9 2.9 2.1 2.3 6.7 6.3 1.9 1.7 1.1 2.2 3.2 1.4 (levels) 275 250 49 51 52 53 450 447 1.4 2.5  0.0 3.5 3.6 3.0 2.3 6.4 1.7 2.1 1.6  -1.8 3.4 3.6 2.9 2.2 6.1 1.7 2.4 2.3  275 49 52 440 2.3  270 49 52 435 3.0  (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 9 Activity gap (*) (percentage points)  4  4  2  2 Sep.17 Report  0  0  -2  -2 Jun.17 Report  -4  -4  -6  -6 02  04  06  08  10  12  14  16  18  20  (*) Gray area shows lowest and highest gap estimates using different estimation methods for potential GDP (HP, SVAR, MEP, FMV, trivariate filter and SSA). See Fornero and Zúñiga (2017). Source: Central Bank of Chile.

Thus, the central bank’s inflation forecast at the policy horizon becomes the intermediate target.2 In the case of Chile, our inflation target is three percent, and the time horizon is two years. As long as this target is credible, monetary policy will not only achieve inflation stability, but will also reduce the volatility of the business cycle. Analytically, the FIT regime is based on the idea that the policymaker minimizes a loss function that penalizes both inflation deviations from the target and deviations of output from full employment. Therefore, what the FIT does is to optimize the tradeoff between output  1  A predecessor was Taylor (1998) who called this period the “long boom.”  2  In order to avoid indeterminacy or multiple equilibria, the forecast must be the central bank’s forecast and not that of the market (Bernanke and Woodford, 1997). 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  volatility and inflation volatility. The time horizon is what makes this scheme “flexible.” The target is not achieved in the short run since it also takes the output costs of achieving the target into account. A rigid inflation target is one in which the central bank only cares about inflation, and hence the horizon would be the shortest possible, enough for monetary policy to affect output. The longer the time horizon, the higher the weight of output volatility in the loss function (De Gregorio, 2007).
The Spanish economy faces considerable challenges, which I have reviewed today. But the most pressing task undoubtedly lies in our labour market, the workings of which evidence singular traits compared with those of other countries. In times of crisis such as the present, these traits lead to the adjustment coming about essentially through job destruction and, even in boom times, the unemployment rate holds at an unjustifiably high level. To reduce such high unemployment and to rapidly generate jobs again, we must draw our institutional and legal framework closer to the models of the other developed countries, which allow for greater flexibility in the use of the labour factor with a greater degree of worker protection. In fact, within the euro, the key variable for the recovery of the Spanish economy is competitiveness. And without a far-reaching reform of these institutions, it will be very difficult for the Spanish economy to promptly attain a reasonable rate of sustained growth. On 10 June the government approved a Decree-Law providing for some improvement to the regulation of collective bargaining. Foreseeably, in its passage through Parliament, greater powers will be extended to workers and employers so that, in mutual agreement, they may decide what they believe is most suitable to enhance the productivity and competitiveness of their companies. The positive effects of this greater flexibility in the labour market would be reinforced if, moreover, measures were taken to increase competition in the markets for goods and services.

And the impact of these efforts on emerging markets can be quite unpredictable and inconsistent with economic theories, due to the international currency status of the US dollar and the safe haven status of US dollar investment. Distinguished audience, Against the background of quite an unpredictable external environment, I believe that the Thai economy would still turn in reasonable growth rate for the year 2011. On the demand side, I see consumption and investment continuing on the rise. Consumer spending is expected to benefit from a high level of farm income from rising output and agricultural prices, high employment, and good consumer confidence. Meanwhile, investment by the private sector is also expected to grow, though at a slower rate than the periods following the crisis recovery. Currently, business sentiment and future investment plans are still showing an improving sign. And, public investment spending remains a key factor to keep demand momentum going forward. What we need to assess more cautiously is the future export performance. Of course, our export sector would be affected by the slowdown in the global economy to the extent that a large proportion of final demand for Asian and Thai exports remains in G3 economies. Having said that, I believe that exports will continue to grow along with world trade as long as the US and EU growth slowdown does not cause another global recession. I also want to stress that the process of export diversification in Thailand has advanced continuously in terms of markets and products.
97.4% of all businesses in Malaysia are SMEs, contributing 37.4% of GDP. Our engagements reveal that these significant contributors often have low levels of knowledge on sustainability. Communication is thus key. Banks and industry leaders, those seated in this room, have the responsibility to communicate and create the awareness and acceptance of your clients on the importance, risks and opportunities related to the impacts of climate change. Alignment. 2050 is the goal for Malaysia. But, it is not one that can be achieved if we each march to the beat of our own drums. Our collective effort is key if we are to achieve a just and orderly transition. Aside from alignment between institutions, even more critical is the need for alignment within institutions. Climate objectives decided at the board and management level must be cascaded to the frontlines and across branches to ensure that clients have the support needed regardless of where they are situated. In combination, this alignment will ensure that efforts by each institution are complementary and achieve the maximum impact. Proactiveness. The Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states irrevocably that the window of opportunity to reach the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is rapidly closing. Decisions of today already have a profound impact on tomorrow's future. Financial institutions must be proactive in ensuring that your own institutions and your clients are prepared in the face of a changing climate and economy.

Without evidence about what works best, governments end up effectively running a mass experiment on everyone, but without the appropriate controls and therefore without learning as much as they could do to improve their policies. In this regard, the "causal revolution" of the past 30 years has also been characterised by the increasing attention that researchers have devoted to justifying causal interpretation of their research findings. In parallel, the appearance of new data, together with new concepts to be measured and new measurement techniques, have multiplied the opportunities to provide convincing descriptive analysis, even in the absence of experimental data. The influence of these approaches has been immense and has given rise to empirical results capable of shaking the most entrenched beliefs of economists. The truth is that there are still wide disparities in data availability across countries. At one extreme there is Denmark and other Scandinavian countries, with a culture that encourages the use of public data by the research community for the common good. But, in most cases, even if public administrations are repositories of enormous wealth in the form of individual data, the administration that holds the data is not capable of exploiting their full potential. Analysing this data is not their main priority and information is usually scattered among various administrations that do not readily communicate with each other or are very reluctant to share their data, even with external researchers.
Over the same period, to the fourth quarter of last year, GDP growth averaged just under 3% a year which is well above most estimates of our trend rate of 2¼%-2½%. GDP has in fact grown for 38 successive quarters which is the longest period of sustained quarter-by-quarter growth we have enjoyed since quarterly records began in the UK in 1955. BIS Review 10/2002  1  Employment has increased steadily from a low point of 25 ½ mn people in the Spring of 1993 to its current level of 28 mn. And the rate of unemployment fell from a peak of over 10½% on the LFS measure to around 5% last summer; while on the claimant count measure it fell from some 10% to just over 3%, which meant that the number of people claiming unemployment benefit, at under 950,000, was the lowest for 26 years. Now some of you - given what's happening to your own businesses - are probably thinking that I must come from a different planet. And yes, we do have a problem. Once you look beneath this apparently benign surface of the economy as a whole, you find very substantial differences between many internationally-exposed sectors of the economy - including particularly many manufacturing businesses - which have recently been having a really tough time, and other businesses largely serving our domestic market which have been doing pretty well.

But for the time being, and whatever the precise numbers, the overall prospect for the British economy over the next couple of years is for output growth picking up to around trend and inflation to around target. And it was against that background that we left interest rates unchanged at our MPC meeting last week. I gather that the EEF was "deeply disappointed" at that decision, having been hoping for a cut. And I really do understand why, seeing things from the perspective of the manufacturing sector in particular, you might take a somewhat more pessimistic view of the prospects than did the MPC. We are - as I have explained - well aware of the degree of uncertainty inherent in any forecast, and do not pretend we have a crystal ball. But I can assure you that if, as we move forward, it seems likely that the overall economy will be weaker than we currently expect, and inflation lower, then we are prepared to reduce interest rates further, just as we stand ready to raise them if the overall economy, and inflation, appear likely to be stronger than we currently anticipate. Mr President, the past year or so has been a difficult time for the world economy which has made life increasingly difficult for the internationally-exposed sectors of our own economy - including large parts of manufacturing. And things could remain difficult for a time. But it won't last for ever.
We are implementing Professional Conversion Programmes (PCPs) to pre-emptively reskill employees whose roles are impacted by change. We launched the IBF Careers Connect two months ago to help our workforce navigate career changes, acquire relevant skills, and be job-ready. We are working with SkillsFuture Singapore (SSG) and Workforce Singapore (WSG) on a Skills Framework for Financial Services that will provide individuals with information on employment, career pathways, occupations, job roles, emerging skills and competencies, as well as relevant education and training programmes. As leaders of our institutions and businesses, we have a special role to play. If each of us can commit to plan for our own workforce, to develop them and give them the best opportunity to stay relevant, the transformation of our workforce will be that much 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  smoother. Let us mobilise and inspire our staff to inculcate a growth mindset to stay competitive and step up to take action. To help do that, IBF is pleased to launch of the #FutureMeNow movement. This is a call to action, for industry professionals and leaders to take ownership and contribute to enabling our workforce for the future. Individuals can pledge to learn something, talk to someone about their career plans or be a mentor. IBF will work with the pledgees to realise their pledges. There are about 500 of us gathered here today. I invite you as industry leaders here tonight to be the first to be active multipliers.

There is growing anxiety the world over about the impact of globalisation and technology on jobs and livelihoods. The anxiety is not unfounded. If people cannot or do not adapt to meet new competition or integrate new technologies, they will be left behind. The answer is not to hold back globalisation or technology but to: make globalisation and technology work for everyone; use technologies to create new and better jobs; and most important, equip our workers and professionals with the capabilities to secure those jobs. Preparing the financial industry workforce for a future smart financial centre is the raison d’etre of IBF. The work we do together in IBF – involving all of us here in the industry – is critically important. And there is urgency to it. IBF’s mandate has been expanded to help synergise the efforts of unions, financial institutions, and the government around workforce transformation. IBF is now the single point of contact for all matters relating to skills, careers, and jobs in the financial industry. By looking at skills development, career pathways, and job placements in an integrated manner, IBF is in a better position to help finance professionals in a more comprehensive and holistic way. IBF, MAS, the industry, and trade unions have been working together on several fronts to help equip the financial industry workforce for the future. We are systematically assessing current and future skills requirements in various job roles in specific financial activities.