samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Another reason why we envisaged a slowdown in economic activity in Sweden was that the increased financial unease would reduce sentiment among Swedish households and companies and in this way have a negative effect on consumption and investment. However, at the same time, our assessment was that the slowdown in economic activity would be alleviated by the fact that the Swedish is competitive, has sound public finances and resilient banks. Our forecast was that GDP growth in Sweden would be weak for some time to come and that unemployment would increase somewhat. As the unease in the euro area subsides next year, economic activity will strengthen, unemployment will decline again and resource utilisation will increase. Inflation will rise at the same time, after being held back by a low cost pressure and a stronger krona since the financial crisis 2008–2009. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Repo rate remains low to stimulate the economy With regard to monetary policy, our assessment was that it needs to be expansionary to support economic activity and give an inflation rate in line with the target of 2 per cent. We therefore decided to hold the repo rate at 1.5 per cent and assessed that it needs to remain at roughly this low level for just over a year, and should then be raised gradually. The deterioration in international economic prospects meant that we revised down the repo-rate path somewhat, in relation to the assessment made in April.

In July, CPI inflation increased by 0.7 per cent compared with July last year, and CPIF inflation increased by 0.8 per cent. This was completely in line with our forecasts and with market expectations. Information on developments in the real economy during the third quarter is so far limited to the business and consumer tendency surveys for July and to the purchasing managers’ index for July. The National Institute of Economic  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Research’s economic tendency survey fell in July and is at a level indicating that growth in the economy is weaker than normal. The confidence indicator for households did rise compared with June, and then to a level just above the historical average. Another bright spot was that the indicator for the manufacturing industry rose. This is in line with the indications from thepurchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing industry, which also rose in July. However, one must exercise caution in drawing conclusions on the basis of changes in individual months. Appreciation of the krona during the summer Another significant factor this summer has been the large appreciation of the krona in relation to the euro. This, together with the fact that the krona has increased in value against other currencies, too, means that it has appreciated in trade-weighted terms this summer. Our forecast in July was that the krona would strengthen, given the relatively good economic developments in Sweden and given our robust public finances.
But in my view, the motivation is not, and should not be, to seek some kind of public revenge. The simplest way to understand all these initiatives is that their main collective purpose is to avoid public money being needed in future to bail out the financial sector. Even though some bail outs have ultimately led to profits being made, the sense of injustice around this use of public money makes it extremely unpopular. Solving the “too big to fail” problem remains key. Meanwhile a debate has been growing as a result of the slow recovery. Is regulation itself directly responsible for restraining credit and hence limiting economic growth? I have recently argued that this should not be so.2 Safe and sound credit institutions are a necessary part of generating sustainable economic growth. If banks hold more capital than they did pre-crisis and are less levered, then they will be in a more secure position to provide credit to support the real economy. Switzerland has made a practical demonstration of the proposition that making banks hold more capital can actually lead to those banks having higher equity prices and lower funding costs. We have recently witnessed an example where capital raising by a Swiss bank was followed by its equity price rising (and its CDS premium fell) on both a relative and absolute basis. Just as in the debate about output and inflation, there is no clear cut, stable, trade-off between making banks hold a prudent amount of capital and growth in the medium term.

And we want to encourage new entrants to step in and pick up where the major banks cannot. So the answer to the first question about the minimum allowance and asymmetric pricing structure is that they are designed to encourage more core lending from those banks who nevertheless must shrink their balance sheets in aggregate – the macro impacts of the FLS won’t be sufficient unless those banks have an incentive to participate. And the banks who can expand lending will benefit from the lowest price and greater proportionate access. The scheme is designed so that every firm has the potential to use it to support lending. But what this means is that we cannot expect every bank in the FLS to increase its stock of lending to the real economy over the 18-month period. It is to be expected that some firms still show an overall reduction, even if the FLS is successful. The crucial impact will be whether the FLS enables them to lend more than they would have done in its absence. The Bank cannot give details of an individual firm’s previous or new lending plans. It is for each of them to explain how the FLS enables them to support the economy. Most have already announced reductions in some interest rates or a loosening of other terms and conditions. Some will respond by lending to firms that they would previously not, because they can now earn a return that compensates for the extra risk. All these approaches will help.
We see a slowdown in economic development., We do not see, or do not yet see, a recession to be on our hands. So I will not speculate about what we would do if there really were a recession. We will cross that bridge when we come to it or, as my mother used to say: if the skies fall down, all the birds are dead. Interest rates in the United States are higher, but you have to realise that the United States is in a totally different phase of the cycle than we are and whether that will in any way induce capital flows to move differently from what they are moving today remains to be seen. And the third part of your question was, have we in any way made the conclusion that the banks, when the rate was 3 %, were not giving in enough to the demand for credit. No, on the contrary, as you know, the development of credit to the private sector has been quite buoyant over the past few months, although its bias of increase has come down somewhat. The last time I was here, I reported that credit to the private sector was growing at an annual rate of nearly 10%; the latest figure we have now is that it has come down to a rate of slightly over 9%.

Is there not the danger, Mr. Duisenberg, that this process is about to begin again and that, after a certain period, owing to a lack of willingness in Europe and in Germany, in particular, to bring about structural reforms, the whole rigmarole will begin once more and you will be forced, yet again, to cut interest rates? Duisenberg: Well, we do not see that danger arising from the level which we now have reached. We hope that our call - as I expressed it today - to governments to pursue a reform-oriented policy, to adopt structural reform measures in all markets, that that policy will get a new incentive from the measures we have taken today. If they do not do that - and it will take time, I admit that before you can pursue and effect policies like I have in mind - if they do not do that, then indeed monetary policy is no alternative. Question (translation): Those who are not au fait with the intricacies of monetary policy, by that I mean Joe Soap , the man on the street, could get the impression that Oskar Lafontaine was right in making his demands. Has your decision anything to do with his resignation or could it be interpreted in another way, as a welcoming gift for the new Federal Minister of Finance in Bonn?
However, there are numerous opinions according to which rating agencies could downgrade Romania. Which would be the main risk factors that could lead to a downgrade? So far, rating agencies have only changed the outlook, not the rating. To answer your question – although I do not believe that Romania will be downgraded to below "investment grade" – the main risk factor remains the current account deficit. We have implemented tight monetary policies to tackle this issue. I believe that at the end of this year we will see a containment of this indicator to its 2007 figure of 14 percent of GDP as compared to some analysts' expectations of 15-16 percent. This is a positive thing for a start but we should not stop here. Romania needs policies that would allow a gradual and predictable reduction of the current account deficit to levels almost entirely covered by direct capital investments to regain confidence of the rating agencies and ensure an improvement of external creditworthiness. We will be thus forced to implement a gradual correction of this deficit, even by a few percentage points in the next two to three years, and it is desirable that this happens in the context of sustainable economic growth, close to the potential, while consolidating disinflation which will resume this autumn after a few quarters of considerable efforts.

That's not a massive rebound, but it is a positive picture - even allowing for downside risks. So we are, in fact, seeing - in terms of Turandot's first riddle - the renewal of the US economy. And of course it is  BIS Review 64/2002  1  immensely important for the global economy that we should, because the prospects in some of the other major industrial economies, notably Japan and Germany, are rather more uncertain. Surprisingly in the light of all this, Turandot's own answer to her first riddle was not "the US economy." Her answer was HOPE. I suppose I would settle for modest EXPECTATION. Her second riddle was "What flickers like a flame when man dreams of conquest?" And again, as I sat there, the answer seemed obvious - it had to be business and financial confidence - or perhaps the global equity market. Given the macro-economic prospect in the US - which is expected to contribute to a recovery to neartrend growth in the world economy as a whole in the course of the next year or two - the recent pessimism of business leaders and the renewed nervousness of global equity markets over the summer seemed somewhat puzzling. Fear seemed to have taken over from man's dream of conquest! There was a real puzzle before the equity markets started to decline.
From its inception, Malaysia’s and its founding members’ vision have always been for a strong and integrated ASEAN region. The “ASEAN Way” believes there is strength in diversity and no country should be left behind. ASEAN strongly believes in the concept of shared prosperity, where wealth creation within the region will be enjoyed by all. The spirit of cooperation and flexibility are amongst the principles which underpinned the success of Myanmar’s chairmanship of ASEAN in 2014. Under Myanmar’s leadership, we saw major strides in financial integration that culminated in the conclusion of the ASEAN Banking Integration Framework (ABIF) by the ASEAN Central Bank Governors. A framework of gargantuan achievement. Myanmar’s leadership in seeing this through was crucial and now ABIF represents the single most important agreement in strengthening the ASEAN banking system, driving deeper integration and enhancing the region’s growth potential. It is an agreement of momentous significance. I would also like to congratulate Myanmar for successfully advancing the Yangon Outcomes for Financial Inclusion during their tenure as Chair in 2014. The groundwork that Myanmar laid during their Chairmanship was key to the announcement by the Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in March 2015 that financial inclusion will be elevated to be an important policy priority for ASEAN. This has resulted in the establishment of a dedicated working committee in ASEAN to deliberate policy options, engage stakeholders and coordinate collective actions to advance financial inclusion. Malaysia also places a big priority on financial inclusion.

In particular, we have found it useful to be a member of the Alliance for Financial Inclusion (AFI), a network of policymakers from developing countries, where we are able to work alongside other policymakers to advance financial inclusion globally. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Additionally, AFI is a platform where members could share experiences and learn about policies that have been successfully implemented by others. ASEAN member countries, such as Myanmar, who are not a member of AFI, may wish to consider becoming a member to stay connected and expand the network of financial inclusion collaboration. Financial integration as the building block to unlock growth Finance is an important component of any economy. Its development and greater financial integration will be the catalyst and foundation upon which an economy will progress and grow. Central to this, is a well-developed financial infrastructure that can appropriately serve effectively at every stage of an economy’s development. Myanmar is on the cusp of a remarkable period. It is blessed with a strategic location in the greater Mekong region with a young, productive and rising demographic base, as well as the beginnings of an emerging and rapid development process. This economic transformation of Myanmar will most likely require investment at a rapid pace. McKinsey Global Institute estimates that around USD650 billion worth of investments are needed for this transformation over the next 15 years, of which USD320 billion is solely for infrastructure building.
Subsequently, December 2017 saw the completion of the second phase of reforms in the Basel III framework. Among other things these reforms introduced enhancements to the standardised methods for calculating credit and operational risk, restrictions on the use of internal models and changes in the leverage ratio. These changes will be implemented in two phases, due to be completed in 2027. As regards bank resolution, the common European resolution framework defines the situations in which failing banks must be subject to liquidation or resolution. For this purpose a new category of non-preferred debt instruments has been created, ranked below senior debt in the order of priority of creditors to facilitate compliance with minimum requirements for the own funds and eligible liabilities available to absorb losses. The Single Resolution Board has started to establish the requirements for these liabilities for European significant institutions and they will gradually be extended to less significant institutions. Smaller Spanish institutions tend basically to be funded via capital and deposits rather than by tapping capital markets. While this feature generally gives their liabilities greater stability, it means they have lower levels of eligible liabilities and a more limited pool of investors, with possible difficulties accessing non-preferred debt markets. Lastly, issuance of this type of instrument is likely to have a much bigger impact on the cost of funding for medium-sized Spanish institutions than for larger ones. This is due to the difficulties accessing markets I mentioned earlier, in conjunction with the higher liquidity premia potential investors are likely to demand.

The Euro area economy has grown, above trend, with core inflation nevertheless remaining within the tolerance range of 0-2%, even though on the headline measure, influenced by rising oil prices and the weaker exchange rate, inflation has for the time being moved above the top of that range. The ECB would have put that internal stability of the Euro area as a who le at risk if it had attempted at the same time to use monetary policy to target the euro's exchange rate, which is what implicitly many of its critics were effectively suggesting that it should do. The more recent criticism has been that the ECB has been slow to respond to the weakening of the US economy. Implicit in that criticism is no doubt a judgement about the extent and duration of the US slowdown and its likely impact on the euro area. As I have said there is a great deal of uncertainty about that. But the ECB has to take account, too, of domestic demand pressures in the euro area, and of the fact that even on the core measure Euro area inflation has been moving up gradually towards the top of the ECB's 0-2% range. Frankly I don't see how anyone can be confident whether the ECB has it precisely right or wrong – it is perfectly normal for even the best-informed people to disagree on these judgements, as anyone who reads our own Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes will tell you.
The global upturn, higher oil prices and low interest rates have contributed to pushing up growth. After falling sharply for several years, investment on the Norwegian shelf and oil service exports expanded last year. A number of signs indicate that capacity utilisation has continued to rise in recent months. The number of employed persons as share of the working-age population has increased, and unemployment has drifted down further. There is also an increase in the number of enterprises reporting capacity constraints. Chart: Inflation has risen Consumer price inflation has increased over the past year, partly reflecting higher wage growth. Tighter labour market conditions suggest that wage growth will increase further. The risk outlook is dominated in particular by the global developments mentioned. Over the past 5/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  year, rising protectionism and political uncertainty have weighted on global growth. The UK’s relations with the EU have yet to be clarified. If trade tensions deepen, growth among trading partners may be lower than projected. At the same time, the krone may remain weak, if global uncertainty persist. The target for monetary policy is annual consumer price inflation of close to 2 percent over time. Inflation targeting shall be forward-looking and flexible, so that it can contribute to high and stable output and employment and to countering the build-up of financial imbalances. At its meeting in March, the Executive Board noted that the monetary stance in Norway is accommodative. Underlying inflation is a little higher than the inflation target.

Luis M Linde: From restructuring to transformation Speech by Mr Luis M Linde, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the 6th Financial Meeting “From restructuring to transformation”, organized by Expansión/KPMG, Madrid, 20 October 2015. *  *  *  Firstly, thank you very much for the invitation to open this 6th Financial Meeting organised by Expansión-KPMG. This meeting is now a classic in our calendar and always provides the occasion for interesting reflections and discussions. One year on from the start-up of the Banking Union, the European financial system can be said to have been strengthened, though this clearly does not mean that it is not facing major challenges and problems. I would sum up the key features here in the following six points: 1. First, following the balance sheet analysis and the stress tests of institutions subject to ECB supervision, and the start-up of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, today there is more awareness of Europe’s banking system and of its greater reliability. 2. Second, solvency levels have been shored up: Europe’s banking system is now sounder. 3. Third, in my opinion, is the greater transparency achieved regarding the situation of the major European banks. And this, together with the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the strengthening of solvency levels, has helped pave the way for banking mergers and consolidation, which were far less conceivable before the start-up of the Banking Union. 4.
In the century ahead, those skill-shifts may be about to go into reverse. To see why, we need to ask ourselves what sets of humans skills robots are likely to find it hardest to reproduce and replace in the period ahead. My reading of the runes is that there are three areas where humans are likely to preserve some comparative (if not always absolute) advantage over robots for the foreseeable future. The first is cognitive tasks requiring creativity and intuition (“heads”). These might be tasks or problems whose solutions require great logical leaps of imagination rather than step-by-step hill-climbing. Existing machine learning algorithms allow huge numbers of solution permutations can be tried quickly and costlessly. This allows these hill-climbing algorithms to scale local peaks in record time. Whether they scale global peaks is altogether another matter. It is harder for machines to solve problems where it is difficult to define the solution steps in a logical sequence in advance. Humans call solutions arrived at in this way “intuition”. Despite rapid progress in deep learning techniques, it remains far-harder to devise search algorithms which solve problems requiring a leap into the unknown. 58  Even in a world of super-intelligent machine learning, a demand is still likely to exist for people with the skills to programme, test and oversee these machines. Some human oversight and judgemental overlay of these automated processes is still likely to be needed. Machine design, improvement and oversight require, at least for the moment, humans and machines to operate in partnership.

Where development needs are identified through FIDE Forum’s screening process, it should be able to refer candidates to the existing director education programmes provided by ICLIF, or work with ICLIF to develop new ones to respond to an unmet need. To my mind, this clarity of role and purpose will significantly enhance the potential impact and influence of FIDE Forum and ICLIF, to the overall betterment of the industry. As members of FIDE Forum, directors have a critical role to play in setting its priorities and in driving future initiatives to ensure that FIDE Forum remains relevant and continues to add value. In this respect, members should be active in giving their views, including providing inputs to concept members, engage in propagating the common interest of the industry and enhancing the good image of the sector. Conclusion The Malaysian financial sector has taken important strides to strengthen boards, in particular through the ongoing education and increase in supply of top-quality directors. The success of ICLIF’s FIDE Programme and the industry-led initiatives by FIDE Forum in pushing frontiers in developing, sourcing and attracting board-level talent would very much depend on the collective efforts of all. It is from this perspective that the FIDE Forum should be commended for initiating this effort. I encourage the industry to continue to use FIDE Forum as a platform for promoting board-level talent management and through it, to build an effective partnership with ICLIF as the centre of excellence for directors’ education in the financial sector.