samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  11  V. Conclusion My Lord Mayor, three weeks ago the Chancellor and I attended the G7 in Canada. Even though there were threats of protectionism in the air, the UK had consistently positive agenda focused on openness and partnerships.   Global Financial Partnerships to take advantage of the enormous progress reforming the financial system over the past decade;    Free trade in services to address chronic trade imbalances, while promoting inclusive growth; and    Free trade for SMEs so that the many can take advantage of the new platforms, the new finance and the new economy. This eagerness reflects our confidence that the UK can seize enormous, new opportunities by building connections. The Bank recognises that a new economy, a new world and new demographics demand a new financial system. That’s why we are building the infrastructure so that UK households and businesses can transact anywhere, anytime with anyone whether around the corner or around the world. That means connections between small businesses in Scunthorpe and their clients in Shanghai and between households in Belfast and firms in Bangalore. We now have a balance sheet fit for a new world order with greater reliance on markets in a wider range of reserve currencies. That means connections between banks, investors and markets around the world consistent with the City’s traditional global role.

With hundreds of billions of pounds of pre-positioned collateral and regular, flexible and widely accessible Bank of England liquidity auctions, markets stayed open and price discovery was smooth and effective. 15  Today marks a step change in our ability to provide the liquidity that the new finance may eventually require. With the Chancellor’s announcement tonight of a ground-breaking new financial arrangement and capital injection for the Bank of England, we now have a balance sheet fit for purpose and the future. 16  One that  reflects the Bank’s much wider range of responsibilities including banking supervision, macro-prudential policy and resolution. And the framework enhances our independence, transparency and accountability. The additional capital will significantly increase the amount of liquidity the Bank can provide through collateralised, market-wide facilities without needing an indemnity from HM Treasury to more than half a trillion pounds. 17  This lending capacity would expand to over three quarters of a trillion pounds when, as  designed, additional capital above the target level is accrued through retained earnings. The new framework will also strengthen the Bank’s ability to fulfil its monetary stability remit. In August 2016, the MPC launched the Term Funding Scheme (TFS) in order to reinforce the pass-through of the cut in Bank Rate to 0.25% to the borrowing rates faced by households and companies. The Bank required an indemnity from HM Treasury for the loans it extended under the TFS. 18  Today’s announcement increases the amount of risk the Bank can carry on its balance sheet.
Sources: central bank of respective country, International Monetary Fund and Superintendence of Banks and Financial Institutions. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 13 Inflation expectations: EES and FOS (*)  Average forward breakeven inflation based on swap rates  (percent)  (moving weekly average, percent)  7  7  7  7  6  6  6  6  5  5  4  4  5  5  3  3  4  4  2  2  3  3  1  1  2  2  1  1  06  07  08  09  10  11  FOS one year ahead  FOS two years ahead  EES at Dec.11  EES one year ahead  06  07  08  1 in 1  EES two years ahead  09 3 in 2  10  11  5 en 5  (*) FOS uses survey of the first half of indicated month. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

José De Gregorio: The world economy, foreign exchange tensions, and recent monetary policy making in Chile Keynote address by Mr José De Gregorio, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, at the Monetary Club of Universidad Finis Terrae, Santiago, 20 May 2011. *  *  *  Abstract This presentation discusses risks and tensions that have emerged in the global economy due to the ongoing process of world economic recovery and its implications on the Chilean economy. It reviews the decoupling of emerging economies from developed ones in terms of growth, the difficulties endured by developed economies to boost their feeble recovery, Europe’s public debt issues, the high commodity prices and symptoms of overheating in some emerging markets. This scenario has pushed emerging economies’ exchange rates to their lowest levels of the past decade. It stands out that, although an important step to change the composition of world demand, it has created tensions and in some cases has prompted the adoption of policies to mitigate exchange rate adjustments. Capital inflows have added pressure to the exchange rate discussion in some emerging economies and might favor an unhealthy increase in lending and incubate financial fragilities. Chile’s last forex intervention is mentioned. The differences in capital flows between Chile and other countries and episodes of substantial flows into emerging economies are described, emphasizing that large capital outflows from Chile have created a negative net balance.
As we know, this framework is based on four pillars: an enhanced supervisory intensity; the requirement of a higher loss absorption capacity; the existence of effective resolution regimes; and an improved resilience of market infrastructures. Substantial progress has been made in implementing this framework. In particular, the so called “Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions” have been endorsed by the G-20 as a new international standard. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Substantive reform has been implemented or is going to be implemented soon in the main jurisdictions in which G-SIFIs operate. In Spain, Law 9/2012 adopts and implements many of the principles set forth in the “Key Attributes”. In the European Union, the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive is expected to be adopted later this year. It will be an important step towards full implementation of the “Key Attributes” in all EU Member countries. The two main new elements of this new framework are, first, planning for orderly resolution; and, second, the scope of the resolution tool known as “bail-in”, which is linked to the existence of an adequate level of loss absorbing capacity in each G-SIFI. Work on resolution planning is currently under way within Crisis Management Groups (CMGs), now set up for all the G-SIBs. There has been considerable progress in developing resolution strategies and identifying conditions relating to the firms’ legal, operational and financial structures and their impact on resolvability. I would now like to comment on the resolution strategies being developed for global banking groups.

The initial design of this ratio was too demanding and, perhaps, not realistic. 2015 for full implementation was clearly too early a date. Another controversial element was the definition of the “high-quality liquid assets” to be included in the numerator. However, after the review agreed by the Basel Committee in January, the ratio definition should be now fairly stable. It should be noted that, rather than a minimum ratio that has to be met at each point in time, such as the capital or the leverage ratios, what is involved with this new liquidity ratio is the setting up of “liquidity buffers” that can be used in times of need. Hence, although the minimum level is set at 100%, a bank could maintain a lower level at stressed times, but should inform the supervisor, in order to agree on a plan to restore the required minimum level. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  As in the case of the leverage ratio, the short-term liquidity ratio does not come into force immediately. We are now – the present year and next – in an observation period that needs to be used for its fine tuning. At the end of this period, the ratio will be phased in from 2015 – when it will be required at the 60% level – to 2018, when it will fully apply. However, this timetable may be accelerated at national discretion.
5 See, for example, Summers (2018). 3 [24]  from 0.75 to –0.5 per cent, the cut would be 1.25 percentage points, that is much less than the estimated 2.5–3 percentage points. 6  Raising the repo rate to have ammunition ready? Here I should like to briefly touch on a particular question before I go on. If one is concerned that the repo rate will not be sufficiently high when the next economic downturn comes, can one not just raise it to a suitable level now, as a preventive measure – so that there is ammunition available when needed? This is an argument sometimes put forward in the general debate. But unfortunately there are a number of problems with this argument. Firstly, the economy will of course be affected by interest rate increases. Growth would slow down and inflation would fall. If one raises the rate quickly and substantially, one might even cause the economic downturn one was ultimately aiming to prevent. But even if this was not the case then, secondly, a very probable scenario would be that inflation nevertheless fell substantially, perhaps down to 1 per cent or lower, that is, to the level it was at some years ago. This could in turn mean that the credibility of the inflation target was questioned once again and economic agents would begin to expect that inflation on average would be 1 per cent rather than 2 per cent.

Evans, Charles L. (2012), “Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment: Developing a State Contingent Price Level Target”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 44, No. 2, pp. 147-155. Federal Open Market Committee (2017), “Transcript of chair Yellen’s press conference June 14”. Fiscal Policy Council (2018), “Swedish Fiscal Policy, Report of the Fiscal Policy Council 2018”. Frankel, Jeffrey (2012), “Time for Nominal Growth Targets,” commentary, Project Syndicate, 12 January. www.project-syndicate.org. Goodhart, Charles and Manoj Pradhan (2017), “Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends”, BIS Working Papers No. 656, Bank for International Settlements. Jansson, Per (2016), “Time to scrap the inflation target?”, speech at Swedbank, December. Jansson, Per (2017), “The ideological debate on monetary policy – lessons from developments in Sweden”, speech at Fores, 6 December. Kaplan, Robert S. (2018), “The neutral rate of interest”, Essay, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/Documents/news/speeches/kaplan/2018/rsk181024.pdf Krugman, P. (2014), “Inflation Targets Reconsidered,” essay presented at the ECB Sintra conference, May. Nessén, Marianne and David Vestin, (2005), “Average inflation targeting”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 37, pp. 837-863. Rachel, Lukasz and Thomas D. Smith (2017), “Are low interest rates here to stay?”, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 1-42. Reifschneider, David and John C. Williams (2000), “Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 936-66. Rosengren, Eric S. (2015), “Changing economic relationships: Implications for monetary policy and simple monetary policy rules”, speech on 16 April, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
When drafting this objective, the Government was clear that maintaining core services should be a central pillar of the PRA’s safety and soundness objective, and not an additional obligation. This means the PRA will apply its existing supervisory approach to meeting our ring-fencing responsibilities. We will use this approach to focus on the biggest risks to ring-fenced banks and the integrity of their ring-fences. Ring-fencing expands the scope of the requirements with which ring-fenced banks need to comply, and that the PRA needs to supervise. But it would be a mistake to believe that the aim of ring-fencing was to create ‘bullet-proof’ banks to which the PRA could apply a lighter-touch model of supervision. Ring-fenced banks – like all financial firms – will take risks, and those risks need to be managed and mitigated by the banks. The PRA’s risk-based approach to supervision also means that the PRA will continue to focus on those banks which pose the greatest risks to the financial system. This would include banks which sit outside of the ring-fences of banking groups where they are important providers of critical economic functions such as lending to large corporates or intermediating in financial markets. And ring-fencing has brought about the creation of additional legal entities within our banking groups which will need to be supervised and meet prudential requirements on an individual basis. Previously, a universal bank could carry out all of its activities within a single legal entity, and face one set of prudential requirements.

Each of these banks has had to structure their business models to ensure that they are independently viable, and have adequate and stable funding sources. The PRA has examined the banks’ financial projections, and these assessments fed into the approvals that formed part of the ring-fencing process. But banks should, as a matter of course, continue to examine carefully their viability and funding risks. For example, as part of their contingency funding planning, banks will need to consider what options are available to them to meet any unexpected outflows. These banks are able to access the full range of the Bank of England’s liquidity  5 6  See Independent Commission on Banking (2011), Final Report, para 3.91. See Bank of England (2018), Financial Stability Report, June, page 31. 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  6  facilities, including the Discount Window Facility, and they should consider the extent to which they have collateral that can be used to obtain liquidity should they need it. How will we supervise the ring-fence? The PRA’s work on ring-fencing does not end with the implementation of the new regime on 1 January. From this date the PRA’s focus moves from putting up fences to ensuring they remain fit for purpose. From 2019 the PRA has a statutory objective to ensure that ring-fenced banks do not threaten the continuous provision of core retail banking services.
In this regard, every central bank all around the world is concentrating on developing new tools and stress tests for assessing financial stability. They are reorganizing themselves in order to directly and effectively monitor financial stability and to develop new analysis techniques regardless of whether a central bank is also the supervisory authority or not. Financial stability from the Turkish perspective… If we consider the last two decades of the Turkish economy, we can say that Turkey learned its lesson very well by actually going through several crises and economic downturns. Thus, we now are aware of how important it is to have a sound financial system, which is resilient to potential shocks. The distortions in the banking sector and weak institutional structure of the financial system led to important systemic risks in the Turkish economy making it impossible for the economy to survive without financial sector reforms taking place. Therefore, the restructuring program for the financial sector was launched with the goal of eliminating the distortions in the financial sector, improving its intermediary function and thus enhancing its competitiveness by international standards. Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency has become operational as a separate body to improve the banking supervision. The Banks Act was amended to bring the supervision standards in line with the EU directives and international best practices. Moreover, the Central Bank Law has been amended and instrumental independence of the Central Bank was provided and the primary goal of the Bank was determined to be maintaining the price stability.

Peter Pang: The 10th anniversary of the BIS Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific Remarks by Mr Peter Pang, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, to a reception for the 10th Anniversary of the BIS Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific, Hong Kong, 7 July 2008. *  *  *  Mr Hannoun, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, It gives me great pleasure to celebrate with you this evening the 10th anniversary of the BIS Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific. Ten years is a long time. Long enough for us to see the robust recovery of the Asian economies following the 1997 financial crisis. Long enough to see China catapult onto the world stage and its emergence as a global economic powerhouse. Long enough for oil prices to rise 11-fold from $ a barrel in 1998 to $ a barrel now. And it is long enough for terms like Google, eBay, Facebook and MySpace to move from being the preserve of computer geeks to the mainstream. I am sure you all have your own stories to tell about these past ten years. It was also 10 years ago that the BIS made the important decision to set up its first overseas office in the Asia-Pacific region, and to strategically locate it in Hong Kong. This put the BIS at the right place, and at the right time, to meet the growing needs of Asia.
The rankings are based on nominations submitted by large and small communities from around the world that take into account indicators developed by the forum. The award goes to communities or regions with a documented strategy for creating a local prosperity and inclusion using broadband and information technology to attract leading-edge businesses, stimulate job creation, build skills, generate economic growth, and improve the delivery of government services. 5  European Commission. 2007. Report from the Commission - Convergence Report 2007 on Malta, COM(2007) 258 final, p.7. BIS Review 14/2008  3  generate more value. The ongoing improvement in the quality of the infrastructure and other facilities available to investors has induced many foreign investors to locate, or expand existing operations, in Malta and thus take advantage of market access and cost-saving opportunities created by Malta’s status, first as an EU Member State and eventually also as a euro area member. This is reflected in the FDI figures when expressed in terms of additions to the capital stock in any one year. Since 2003, for example, the ratio of FDI inflows to gross capital formation was on average 83%, compared to 14% in the EU25. In manufacturing alone, since the first year of EU membership a total of 127 new projects or expansions with foreign participation have been approved, with an estimated potential value equivalent to 1% of nominal GDP. 6 The role of the Central Bank of Malta The Central Bank of Malta has been present at every stage of Malta’s journey to the euro.

Michael C Bonello: Malta’s journey to the euro and beyond Speech by Mr Michael C Bonello, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, at the European Economics and Financial Centre, London, 1 February 2008. *  *  *  A month has passed since the euro became Malta’s new currency. Euro area membership is a major milestone for any country for there are clearly long-term benefits associated with participation in the world’s second most important currency area. There is indeed much evidence that the macroeconomic framework which supports the euro has delivered price stability, job creation and economic growth. For a small, open economy like Malta’s with a heightened vulnerability to external and sector specific shocks, the benefits of the single currency can be expected to be even more valuable. From a central banker’s perspective, moreover, euro area membership means replacing the manifold risks inherent in managing a small, vulnerable currency such as the Maltese lira by the greater security afforded of major reserve unit. Where have we come from? Although the Maltese economy had responded fairly well to the closure of the British military base in1979, it still suffered from considerable structural weaknesses when the authorities applied for EU membership in 1990. These were reflected in the dominant role of the public sector – which at the time provided 40% of all jobs – and in the extensive use of protective trade barriers that only served to entrench inefficient and uncompetitive practices.
Jarle Bergo: Inflation targeting and the phasing in of petroleum revenues - a dilemma for monetary policy? Address by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank, at the seminar on foreign exchange policy issues arranged by the Association of Economists, Gausdal, 25 January 2002. *  *  *  Introduction Since last year’s seminar, new guidelines for economic policy have been introduced. As the title of my speech suggests, these guidelines will serve as the starting point for my talk. In his presentation last year, Norges Bank’s Governor said “Monetary policy cannot function effectively without a good interplay with fiscal policy”. I will start by taking a closer look at the implementation of monetary policy before I discuss the guidelines for phasing in the petroleum revenues and the interplay between fiscal and monetary policy. Finally, I will take a look at the implications that the phasing in of petroleum revenues will have for our industry structure. These implications may pose a challenge to many, but not necessarily to monetary policy. On 29 March 2001, the Stoltenberg Government issued new guidelines for monetary policy and presented guidelines for fiscal policy. Monetary policy was to be oriented towards low and stable inflation. The inflation target was set at 2½ per cent. The guidelines for fiscal policy imply that over time, the central government budget deficit shall be equivalent to the expected real return on the Government Petroleum Fund. The change in the guidelines for economic policy met widespread support in the Storting.

Caleb M Fundanga: Payment system developments in the region Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the official opening of the 2007 SADC Payment Systems Regional Conference, Livingstone, 2 April 2007. *  *  *  • SADC Payment Systems Project Team Leader; • SADC Payment Systems Project Country Leaders; • Chairperson, Bankers Association of Zambia; • Delegates from all SADC Countries; • Distinguished invited guests; and • Ladies and Gentlemen On behalf of the Bank of Zambia and indeed on my own behalf, I wish to welcome you all to Zambia and Livingstone in particular. For those of you coming to Livingstone for the first time, you will no doubt soon discover that this historical city, which incidentally was Zambia’s capital city until 1935 when it was moved to Lusaka, is one of the world’s pristine tourist destination and boasts of a number of magnificent sights and places of cultural interest. For those of you that have been here before, I wish you a joyous time as you renew your acquaintance with this beautiful city and enigmatic Victoria Falls. To all of you, I implore you to shop around and take a piece of Livingstone as souvenir on your return. Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to thank you all for being here for the 2007 SADC Payment Systems Regional Conference. This event has now become interwoven into the tradition and fabric of SADC.