samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
If this labor market improvement continues and the FOMC is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to our 2 percent objective over the medium term, then it would be appropriate to begin to normalize interest rates. At their March meeting, the FOMC removed language from the statement that indicated that we would be patient in beginning the process of normalizing monetary policy. But, as Chair Yellen remarked in her most recent press conference, removal of the word “patient” from the statement does not indicate that we will now be “impatient” to begin to normalize monetary policy. Rather, the timing of normalization remains uncertain because how the economy evolves is also uncertain. When, hopefully, the data support a decision to lift off later this year, it does not mean that U.S. monetary policy will be tight. Rather, we will simply be moving from an extremely accommodative monetary policy to one that is only slightly less so. I would view this as a positive signal about the progress we have made in restoring the U.S. economy to health. It is important to remember that near zero short-term interest rates and the large expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet were designed to be a temporary extraordinary treatment to help the economy regain its vitality, and not a permanent palliative. I remain confident that when the FOMC decides to begin to remove policy accommodation that we have the requisite tools to support this decision.

There's no use in complaining about "populism", which incidentally is a label that is too easily used, if we can't provide the "people" with the ability to ask the right questions and then evaluate the answers. France has therefore made a firm commitment to implement a strategy for financial education based on the principles set out by the OECD and endorsed by the G20 leaders. Work on the strategy began in 2013 and on 20 December of last year, the Minister of the Economy called the first meeting of the National Committee for Financial Education. This Committee brings together relevant administrations and institutions, consumer associations and finance sector professionals, and gives the political impetus at the very highest level. The Minister also reaffirmed the role entrusted to the Banque de France of conducting the national strategy. Before continuing with a presentation of our first collective achievements, I would like to focus on the role of the Banque de France. ***  1. The Banque de France, the conductor of the national strategy [slide 4] The Banque de France has concrete, everyday experience of our fellow citizens' needs in terms of information and explanations through its three core tasks of monetary strategy, financial stability and services to the economy. For example, as part of the over-indebtedness procedure managed by the Banque de France, each year we provide solutions to more than 200,000 households experiencing financial difficulties.
Ladies and gentlemen, let me end my remarks by quoting a line from the book: “Risk of crisis as financial integration increases will never disappear, and countries must pursue protection from risks of volatility and sudden stops”2. We should always be vigilant, even in peace time. To Mr Kawai and other authors, congratulations yet again on the launch of this new and important book. 15. 2  Thank you. Chapter 4: “Managing large capital inflows: taking stock of international experiences” (by Susan Schadler). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

John C Williams: Preparing for the unknown Remarks (via videoconference) by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the 2021 US Treasury Market Conference, 17 November 2021. * * * As prepared for delivery  Introduction Good morning, and welcome to the seventh annual U.S. Treasury Market Conference. This is our second time gathering virtually. Although I miss seeing all of you in person here at the New York Fed, I am pleased that so many of you could join us today. This conference is a great opportunity for market participants, as well as members of five publicsector bodies—the Treasury, the Board of Governors, the SEC, the CFTC, and the New York Fed—to come together and take stock of the U.S. Treasury market. The events of the past 20 months have further underscored this market’s significance in the global economy—and the important role our five entities perform in ensuring that it functions as it should. In fact, the Inter-Agency Working Group for Treasury Market Surveillance (IAW G) came together to examine recent, notable disruptions to the Treasury market, and it issued a report ahead of this conference that identifies steps to strengthen its functioning and resilience.1 I won’t have time to go over the report in detail, but I strongly encourage everyone to read it. Severe disruptions to critical financial markets like we saw last spring should be rare.
Investment projects amounting to more than USD160 billion to be financed by the Gulf states in Asia have been announced since 2005 2 . In 2006 alone, mega-deals 3 involving corporate acquisitions and real estate purchases from the Gulf to Asia, are estimated to total more than USD18 billion, including multi-billion dollar IPO purchases in financial institutions in China, large oil refineries and telecom companies. The value of such investments are expected to increase to between USD20-30 billion in 2007. For economic regions with high savings and surpluses such as Asia and the Middle East, the challenge is to recycle part of these surplus funds to productive investments in the region. The supply of savings in Asia and the Middle East is by far higher than in any other part of the world. Savings rates here in Asia are expected to remain in the region of 30-40% of GDP for some years to come. 1  The Gulf Cooperation Council represents Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait  2  "A route to riches on the new Silk Road", Financial Times, 21 Dec 2006  3  Worth more than USD1 billion  BIS Review 31/2007  1  Similarly, savings in the Middle East economies have been rising in the recent decade and is expected to average about 30-35% of GDP in the coming years. In 2006, the current account surpluses as percentage of GDP for Asia and the Middle East were about 5% and 23% respectively 4 .

Responsible investment is an integral part of the investment strategy and includes the exclusion of companies on an ethical basis. In 2016, the Ministry of Finance, at the request of the Storting, introduced two new criteria for ethics-based exclusions: a climate criterion and a coal criterion. Norges Bank has conducted extensive research to collect data and perform analyses to identify the companies that fall under the coal criterion. Based on the results, the Executive Board decided to exclude 69 companies and place 13 companies under observation in 2016. On the advice of the Council on Ethics, the Board also decided to exclude a further eight companies and place one company under observation, while the exclusion of one company was revoked. The exchange of information and division of responsibilities between Norges Bank and the Council on 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  Ethics functions smoothly. At the end of 2016, Norges Bank submitted a recommendation to the Ministry of Finance to increase the share of equities in the GPFG. Historically, equities have generated a higher return than bonds, but the return has also been more volatile. A lower return on bonds is the price we pay to dampen fluctuations in the fund’s value. In recent years, bonds have become a more efficient, but also more costly, hedge against security market volatility. Both factors suggest that the bond allocation should be somewhat lower. In addition, Norway’s petroleum wealth as a whole has become more diversified over the past ten years.
Today I would like to address the importance of adopting a forward-looking approach in our framework for financial stability. At the same time, following the advice of the Italian statesman and philosopher Machiavelli that “whoever wishes to foresee the future might consult the past”, I would like to make the case that, to ensure a sound regulatory system for the future, we must look carefully back at the lessons of the past. It seems especially appropriate to discuss, here in Asia, the important relationship between financial stability and sound growth. After enduring a period of regional financial distress in the late 1990s, Asia’s re-emerging dynamism and growing stature can be seen in many indicators: for example, in its capacity as an importer of raw materials and foreign direct investment, and as an exporter of manufactures, financial capital, etc. Asia is a central partner with the rest of the world through its roles both in trade and finance. Indeed, in a recent address at the Centre for Banking and Monetary Studies in Geneva, Mr Yam offered an accurate overview of Asia’s vibrant potential. He set out some impressive figures such as the amount of foreign reserves held by Asian economies, the amount of portfolio and direct investment going into and coming out of the region, and the high level of rates of private-sector saving, which is increasingly institutionalised and professionally managed. Certainly, Hong Kong is a prime example of the enormous potential that is being realised in Asia.

For this very reason, the award ceremony for the best diploma thesis has become a consolidated activity of the Bank of Albania geared toward supporting promising students in the field of scientific research within the scope of central banking. This year, students also showed a high interest in presenting their diploma theses. We received 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  27 studies on a wide range of economic, financial, and legal topics focused mostly on the Albanian economy. It is a delight to see how these studies use contemporary research methodologies and valuable information intelligently to analyse economic phenomena, employing theoretical and empirical arguments. In spite of the challenge of choosing the most interesting studies, we now have our verdict on the “Governor’s Award for the Best Diploma Thesis 2018”. The selection has not been easy. Each year, we receive increasingly more qualitative studies in terms of research methodology, topic originality and methods applied in research. I take this opportunity to congratulate all the contestants for the high quality of the presented studies. I hope and encourage you to further enrich your theoretical and empirical capacities as you advance in your careers, wherever that may lead, in academia or as experts in specific fields. I hope you will be unremittingly engaged in scientific research, in a relationship of which only the starting date is known. Thank you and happy holidays! 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Although the phasing-in of petroleum revenues is a gradual process, the contest for labour resources will intensify. As a result, monetary policy is likely to remain fairly tight in the years ahead. A high interest rate level may, as we are now experiencing, result in a strong krone in periods . This may accelerate the scaling back of manufacturing industry. However, in the long run monetary policy cannot influence overall employment or its distribution across industries. A lower interest rate would have resulted in higher price and cost inflation, which would also have weakened profitability in the manufacturing sector. The end result would have been the same for employment and production, but in addition we would have had high inflation. Even if manufacturing employment and production show a decline, the situation for Norwegian enterprises will not necessarily be negative. Some enterprises could be at the forefront of technological developments and increase efficiency in pace with the relatively sharp rise in costs in  1  The figures are based on the national accounts. We have defined private service industries as wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, other transport industries, financial intermediation, commercial services and part of other social and personal services. 4  BIS Review 65/2002  Norway. In recent years, we have also seen that many enterprises have moved large portions of their production abroad, particularly the most labour-intensive production. Norwegian manufacturing companies could still be profitable. Export industries generate foreign-exchange earnings to finance imports of goods and services.

At least since the end of the 1990s, it seems that enterprises, households and employees have adapted to expectations of strong income growth. This may contribute both to the appreciation of the krone and to widening the cyclical divergence between Norway and other countries. If the increase in the use of petroleum revenues has already been priced into today's exchange rate, both the longterm trend in the real exchange rate and interest rate expectations suggest that the krone exchange rate will return to a more natural long-term range. In the short term, other factors may also influence the krone. Global equity markets have seen a sharp fall in prices over the past year. When there is a large degree of uncertainty in stock markets, many investors make portfolio shifts. Money and bond markets become good alternatives. The NOK market, where interest rates are relatively high, might seem attractive. These portfolio shifts result in an appreciation of the krone. This trend may be reversed by a turnaround in the stockmarket. Another factor that we have pointed to earlier is that the Norwegian krone may also be perceived as an attractive investment alternative - or a safe-haven currency - in a situation with tensions in the Persian Gulf, high oil prices and a global downturn. Potential gains may, however, be offset by the risk associated with investing in less liquid markets. This may limit capital inflows to the NOK market.
You could probably do the Volcker Rule in a more efficient way to achieve the same objectives without the burden of regulation that you have right now. You know, right now, if you’re an equity trading desk and the equity market falls very violently, you really aren’t supposed to go in and buy equities unless you actually have customer orders. So, you actually have this crazy situation where the equity desk can’t actually buy equities to support the market. So, I’d like to see the Volcker Rule looked at to see if there’s a way of doing it in a way that – if you’re a client-facing business, and you’re trading your own asset class, you have a little bit more freedom to buy and sell when markets are volatile and maybe provide actually a little liquidity support in the market. But also make it a lot easier, I think, to enforce the Volcker Rule. The other thing I would say is relief for smaller banking institutions. The financial crisis was not about small banking institutions. It was about large banking institutions and particularly it was about large broker-dealers. And so I think the Dodd-Frank Act imposed a lot of compliance and regulatory costs on smaller banking institutions. And I think – we have about 6,500 smaller banks in the United States plus a lot of credit unions and other financial intermediaries.

And if you don’t have that, then I think that has its own set of consequences. Maureen O’Hara: Yes, well, I think you’ve raised a great point, that there are both positive and negative consequences of globalization. Let me raise something that may have similar negative and positive, and that’s the impact of technology. I think we’re all beginning to see a brave new world in which technology is entering ways that even 10 years ago were hard to fathom. And you know, I think that just as globalization seems to have made people nervous about the future, so has technology. Now, what are your thoughts on that? Is technology going to be the bigger influence over the next decade? Is that what’s going to change our economy and the ability of people to make that leapup that you just talked about? President Dudley: Well I think technology is always challenging. I think it’s been challenging for decades, even centuries. My mom for many years lived in Westville, Massachusetts, and if I have this right, it was the buggy whip capital of the world at one point. Well, Westville had to make the transition from being the buggy whip capital of the world to other things. And I think – so, I don’t think this is new. I don’t think this is a new story about technology.
The second major difficulty in our present situation relates to the strength of the exchange rate. We are, of course, acutely aware of the problems that this is creating - and has been creating for the past year or so - for those sectors of the economy that are engaged in international trade and exposed to international competition. Given that the UK chemical industry exports nearly two-thirds of its output, and that this country imports nearly 60% of the chemicals we consume, it is just possible that one or two of you are suffering from the strong exchange rate. I only ask you to believe that we both understand and share your concern. From a macro-economic standpoint it is - as I say - important that the pace of growth of aggregate demand should slacken. But it is clearly not desirable - either in terms of sustainability or in terms of the balance of the economy - that the slowdown should simply be a result of a sharp deterioration in our balance of payments. Our problem, potentially, is excess domestic demand. And that is the root of the dilemma. We have needed to tighten policy to moderate the strength of domestic demand. That has no doubt contributed to the continuing strength of the exchange rate - although you can’t plausibly explain anything like all of that strength in terms of relative interest rate movements here and abroad. It certainly has a good deal to do with market perceptions about the future strength of the euro.

In any event, I take macro-economic sustainability as the theme for my remarks this evening. Many people think that - because the objective of monetary policy is typically nowadays defined by governments in terms of permanently low inflation - that is seen as an end in itself. But in fact, as I say, we see low inflation - effective price stability - not just as an end in itself but rather as a means to the end of sustainable growth and macro-economic prosperity. Rising prices - across the board - are essentially a reflection of imbalance between aggregate demand in the economy and its supply-side capacity to meet that demand. There is not much frankly that we can do - directly - to affect the supply-side capacity of the economy. That is a function of its structural characteristics, including the productive abilities of both sides of industry, which can be influenced over time by the whole raft of government policies. Monetary policy operates essentially on the demand side - aiming to keep the growth in aggregate demand more or less continuously in line with the underlying, sustainable growth in the supply-side capacity of the economy. I probably need not remind an industrial audience what happens if we get it wrong and let demand run ahead of supply. The inevitable result is accelerating inflation, with all the damage that can cause - by distorting the outcome of investment decisions and obscuring the relative price signals that direct resource allocation.
BIS Review 37/2008  13  Over the past year, we have seen a growing international debate about government-owned investment vehicles; so-called sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). The increased attention reflects their rapid growth over the last decade. The debate has revealed some scepticism towards these funds, where key concerns relate to a lack of transparency and possible nonfinancial investment objectives. In my view, the debate should also reflect these funds’ potential to positively influence international financial markets through enhancing market liquidity and financial resource allocation. Typical features of this type of funds are long investment horizons, no leverage and no demands for the imminent withdrawal of funds, unlike the growing number of leveraged hedge funds with short time horizons. Hence, sovereign wealth funds have a high risk-bearing capacity and are resilient to short-term volatility. They may therefore act as a stabilising factor in financial markets by dampening asset price volatility and liquidity risk premiums. Let me elaborate and exemplify this by looking at the Government Pension Fund – Global: The Pension Fund is a policy tool to support long-term management of Norway’s petroleum wealth and avoid the resource curse. An important objective is to shield the Norwegian economy from fluctuations in prices and extraction rates in the petroleum sector. The Fund is only invested abroad in financial markets. The alternative to an oil fund would have been to regulate the extraction path by putting a conservative upper limit on annual extraction.

But even with this substantial source of income, only a share of future pension payments – which basically are financed by current income – will be matched by revenues from the Pension Fund. Estimates show that the capital in the Fund will only cover some 50-60 per cent of public pension expenditure in the future. One key element of the Fund Management Model is accountability. The role of the political authorities as well as of Norges Bank as manager is clearly defined. Another key feature is transparency and disclosure of information. The management of the Fund is based on two ethical commitments. 16  BIS Review 37/2008  First, there is the consideration relating to future generations. The Fund must ensure high capital returns at a moderate risk, by means of professional management with effective control of operational risk. Since 1997, the average annual net real return has been a little above the expected 4 per cent, partly due to excess return attributable to Norges Bank’s management. Second, the Fund must respect the fundamental rights of those affected by the companies in which the Fund has invested. The instruments used here are the exclusion of companies from the Fund’s investment universe and the active exercise of ownership rights. The Ministry of Finance excludes companies that produce certain types of weapons. They also exclude companies when they identify an unacceptable risk of contributing to gross corruption, severe environmental degradation, and serious violations of human rights and of fundamental ethical norms.