samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
To increase confidence in the long term, however, we  2  This figure may vary somewhat depending on how it is calculated. 3  See also the article “The EMU and the debt crisis in Europe” in the Monetary Policy Report of February 2012. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  need real changes and the credible implementation of requirements for sustainable public finances. Nevertheless, the situation looks much better now than it did in the autumn. If we look outside Europe, we can see the beginnings of a turnaround in the US economy and China, for example, is still experiencing good growth. Despite this, however, we should probably expect the impetus to the Swedish economy from abroad to be limited over the next few years, mainly due to weak development in Europe. Inflation and growth prospects justify keeping the repo rate low Developments abroad, and above all in Europe, are thus highly important to the Swedish economy. But the development of domestic demand, for example household consumption, was also weak in the second half of 2011. Since then, however, we have received a number of somewhat more positive signals. Share prices have risen since the end of last year and confidence indicators are clearly pointing in the right direction, although from relatively low levels. There is thus potential for an eventual increase in household demand. Growth may gradually increase. The main objective of monetary policy is to keep inflation close to the target.

6  See Sveriges Riksbank, (2011): “Appropriate capital ratios in major Swedish banks – an economic analysis”  7  These demands relate to the core Tier 1 capital ratio that is the ratio between equity and risk-weighted assets. See http://www.riksbank.se/en/Press & published/Press/Press releases /2011/New capital requirements for Swedish banks. 8  See http://www.esrb.europa.eu/recommendations/html/index.en.html. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Concluding thoughts I have worked in the financial sector for the last 35 years, and for most of that time with financial regulation, supervision and crisis management. I have experienced the development of the world of finance and banking from different perspectives – the supervisory perspective, the international perspective and the sector perspective. Perhaps the most important lesson I have learned from my previous experience is that Sweden has become increasingly dependent on the rest of the world, from both the real economic and the financial points of view. In the field of monetary policy, the development of the European debt crisis is the most important – and most uncertain – factor to take into account. To attain the inflation target and stabilise resource utilisation, a low policy rate will be needed for some time to come. Monetary policy and financial stability must also be seen in a joint context. Low interest rate levels may eventually create imbalances that we must be wary of. It may therefore be necessary to take some aspects of financial stability into account when making monetary policy decisions.
Jarle Bergo: Cyclical developments, monetary policy and the krone exchange rate Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at Østfold University College, Sarpsborg, 28 September 2006. The text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The speech is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 27 September, Inflation Report 2/06 and previous speeches. *  *  *  Cyclical developments The cyclical upturn in the Norwegian economy continues. Growth has been strong since mid-2003. Real income growth has been solid in both the household and corporate sectors. Household demand, which spurred the recovery, is still on the rise. Many Norwegian export companies are operating at full capacity with solid profit margins. High prices for Norway’s export goods have contributed to a strong improvement in Norway’s terms of trade. At the same time, there is solid growth in general government demand for goods and services. Fixed investment has gradually become an important driving force behind the economic upturn. Over the past couple of years, increased mainland business investment has contributed to the upturn in the Norwegian economy. Corporate profitability is high and companies are positive about the outlook ahead. The order book situation in manufacturing is highly satisfactory, and optimism appears to be high in most business sectors. According to our regional network, the market situation is also positive for corporate services. Petroleum investment has reached a high level after three years of strong growth.

IMF (2009), International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, “Sustaining the Recovery” October 2009, page 102. Kohn, D. (2006), “Monetary Policy and Asset Prices”, The Federal Reserve Board, speech held on 16 March 2006, page 5. Kohn, D. (2008), “Monetary Policy and Asset Prices”, The Federal Reserve Board, speech held on 19 November 2008, page 2. Mishkin, F. (2007), “Enterprise Risk Management and Mortgage Lending”, The Federal Reserve Board, speech held on 17 January 2007, page 3. Taylor, J. (2009), Wall Street Journal, 15 October 2009. 12  BIS Review 162/2009
In this respect, if financially vulnerable firms are defined as those that are unable to regularly pay the interest on their financial debts out of ordinary and interest income, it is observed that the relative weight of debt associated with vulnerable firms has fallen continuously since 2013, down to levels in 2018 very similar to those recorded in 2008. At the same time, it is estimated that in a hypothetical adverse scenario in which corporate profits continue to decline (on a scale, for example, equivalent to half of the decline observed in the last crisis, between 2008 and 2012), the consequent increase in vulnerability would be comparatively less intense than that which would have occurred in 2008 in response to the same adverse shock, reflecting today’s lower level of corporate indebtedness. That said, some types of firms and sectors may still have a significant degree of vulnerability to the deterioration of the environment, according to the strength of their financial position and the nature of the possible shocks. 22/29  In the case of households, their indebtedness as a proportion of GDP has also declined very significantly, by 28 pp from the peak recorded in 2010. Accordingly, at 58.3% at present, it has now practically converged with the euro area figure. The latest data indicate that total household financing was practically steady in September, in year-on-year terms, with a slight deceleration since the start of the year. By component, we can see significant divergence between credit for consumer goods purchases and credit for house purchases.

Since these instruments can absorb losses in the event of difficulties, their interest rates upon issuance are usually higher than those of ordinary debt instruments, so there is much more room for them to decrease, particularly in comparison with deposits. Analysis of the average loan-deposit spread, in terms of outstanding balances, shows that there is indeed a historically positive relationship between this variable and the level of market interest rates. However, since 12-month EURIBOR turned negative in February 2016, not only has this spread not narrowed, but it has actually widened. There are three reasons for this. First, average loan remuneration has been underpinned in recent years by the decline in non-performing loans, which has lowered the proportion of loans that do not generate any interest. Second, banks have to a certain extent rebuilt their portfolios, focusing more on business such as consumer lending that provides higher net interest income, albeit at the expense of increasing the risk profile of their credit portfolios. Third, in February 2016 there was still some room for a further decline in the cost of deposits which averaged 0.35% for outstanding balances and 0.20% for new business. Since then deposit rates on new business have fallen by an amount similar to the decline in average loan remuneration. However, the cost of deposits is currently very close to zero, so it will be more difficult to pass through any further falls in loan remuneration.
However, this does not have a great deal to do with the liquidity problems in US dollars and my thoughts on this subject will thus have to wait for a later occasion. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  So, to summarise: not all borrowing in foreign currency is linked to a direct liquidity risk. This primarily affects short-term borrowing, which largely takes place in US dollars. And not all dollar borrowing gives rise to a liquidity risk, but primarily that used for lending to customers. A rough estimate suggests a volume of around SEK 450 billion in the four major banks, but the level of uncertainty is high. Two questions It is apparent that the banks faced problems in their dollar funding during the crisis. Why else would they have borrowed as much as USD 30 billion via the Riksbank? However, one question that is always asked in this connection is why the banks necessarily had to borrow dollars. Couldn’t they instead have borrowed in kronor and then exchanged this into dollars on the foreign exchange market? This would have removed the problem of the shortage of dollars. There is no lack of kronor, as the Riksbank can create these in the quantities needed. For ordinary people like us and for most companies, the foreign exchange market worked faultlessly during the entire crisis. If you had kronor, you could exchange them for dollars. It was the Swedish banks that provided this service – they were the counterparties in these transactions.

Because when the costs for risk-taking are not carried by the party taking the risk, this usually leads to these risks becoming excessive, from a macroeconomic perspective. Would the banks borrow fewer dollars if they had to carry the cost themselves? The banks’ currency borrowing How dependent are the major Swedish banks on borrowing in foreign currency? From a historical perspective, it is fair to say that the dependence has been limited. However, during the last decade or so, the situation has changed dramatically (Figure 3). In 1998, the Swedish banks borrowed foreign currency in an amount equivalent to just over SEK 200 billion (not including borrowing by subsidiary banks). Today, this figure is closer to SEK 1 500 billion. The banks’ rapid expansion, not least outside Sweden, has largely been funded by borrowing on the international financial markets. During the previous financial crisis at the start of the 1990s, the Swedish banks still essentially operated on a national level. This is not the case today. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Over time, the major Swedish banks have also become increasingly dependent on borrowing on the capital markets. Today, they only receive slightly less than half of their funding from normal deposits. The other half is comprised of what is usually called “purchased money”, which is to say money borrowed on the market (Figure 4). And almost two-thirds of that money comes from overseas.
Many of the countries that now have problems due to their weak public finances have weak economic-policy institutions and are  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  ranked at a relatively low level in various measures of institutional strength, for example the degree of efficiency or corruption in the public sector. Figure 5 shows examples of this.5 Weak institutions in themselves undermine the potential for growth.6 By implementing structural reforms, the countries can improve their public finances and increase their potential for growth in the period ahead. However, despite the fact that there have been and still are processes in the EU that aim to improve the workings of the economies and improve competitiveness, for example the Lisbon Strategy or Europe 2020, it has proved to be easier said than done to implement these reforms. A robust plan should therefore be based on both structural reforms and consolidation. Figure 5. Structural reforms are important World Bank’s governance indicators 100  Government Effectiveness Regulatory quality Control of Corruption  100  90  90  80  80  70  70  60  60  50  50 Sweden  Portugal  Ireland  Spain  Greece  Note. The bars show indicators of institutional quality in which 100 is the best possible value and 0 the worst.

GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year has been revised upwards, consumer confidence has rebounded somewhat and the main forward looking surveys of activity in the manufacturing and services sector have been looking substantially more positive since the turn of the year. Consistent with this tentative recovery in optimism, the Consensus survey of professional economists' forecasts for near-term growth in the US has been revised upwards for the first time in quite a period. So far, the UK has escaped the worst of the squalls raging across the Atlantic. Though GDP growth slowed over the course of last year, output in 2001 was still 2.4% higher than a year earlier, close to trend growth. Underlying this relatively benign aggregate picture, there are of course some quite marked differences: on the expenditure side, between growth in consumption, which has surged ahead, and growth in investment, which has been strikingly depressed; and, on the output side, between the fortunes of firms in manufacturing, which have borne the brunt of the global slowdown, and those of firms in the more sheltered services sector. These differences are sometimes referred to as 'imbalances', and it is certainly true that we can neither expect (nor wish) for them to persist over the long run. The shake-out in manufacturing has been particularly severe, as you know here only too well. Manufacturing output in Northern Ireland fell by some 4.6% in the year to last autumn, compared with a fall of 3.5% in the UK as a whole.
François Villeroy de Galhau: Between "shadow" banking and an angelic vision of the market – towards a balanced development of non-bank finance Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the presentation of the 22nd Financial Stability Review, Paris, 25 April 2018. * * * Ladies and Gentlemen, I am very pleased to welcome you this morning to this presentation of the 2018 Financial Stability Review (RSF), dedicated to non-ban k finance. Intended as a forum for dialogue and exchange, the FSR offers leading personalities from diverse backgrounds the chanceto have an open debate. I am delighted to see many of this year’s contributors here among us this morning, and I would like to extend my warm thanks to all the speakers: Klaas Knot, President of the Dutch Central Bank; Philip Lane, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland; Robert Ophèle, President of the Autorité des marches financiers; Paul Hamill, Global Headof FICC at Citadel Securities; Yves Perrier, CEO of Amundi; and Richard Portes, Professor of Economics at the London Business School. The topic we have chosen to address is far from anodyne: [slide 2] according to the Financial Stability Board (FSB), non-bank financing totalled USD 160 trillion in 2016 [Monitoring Universe of Non-Bank Financial Intermediation, MUNFI], up 50% relative to 2008 and accounting for close to half of all financial assets held by financial institutions worldwide, compared with 40% in 2008.

It is also important that we increase the transparency of shadow banking activities. In this respect, the entry into force of the European regulations EMIR2 and SFTR should be a considerable step forward. As I’ve been talking about macroprudential measures regarding large corporations, and our subject is financial stability, I’d like to bring you up to date on bank lending in France: lending to the private sector – to households and businesses – is growing rapidly in France, at a rate of close to 6% per year. At the next meeting of the High Council for Financial Stability (HCSF) in June, we shall look at whether we need to introduce additional measures. To sum up, we have not yet finished exploring the issue of non-bank finance and I am certain that today’s event will make a valuable contribution to the debate. I would like to pass the floor now to Aurélia End, who will host the round table, and wish you all an excellent morning. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
There is a strong sense at Norges Bank that we are being put to effective use today. Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 154/2010  17

Krzysztof Rybiński: Globalization versus financial markets Address by Mr Krzysztof Rybiński, Deputy President of the National Bank of Poland, at the “Index” Students’ Association for Capital Markets and the Department of Capital Markets series of seminars, Cracow University of Economics, Cracow, 20 April 2006. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, Whilst preparing for today’s address, I entered “globalne, Kraków” into the Google search engine. The following websites, among others, have been found: the website of the Regional Examination Board that provides information on lower secondary school graduation exams, the TVP3 regional service that informs of an increase in the number of Ryanair flights from Cracow, Wrocław and Poznań, and the website of the most beautiful cities of Europe, where Cracow is duly mentioned next to Florence and London. The Google search has found 97,400 websites containing the sought phrase in 0.49 seconds. A similar attempt for other cities has resulted in the following: Poznań 75,000, Gdańsk 68,900, Białystok 20,500, Warszawa 163,000 and Wrocław 306,000. A search for “global London” results in 236 million websites, “global Berlin” – 67.6 million, “global Bangalore” – 12 million websites, and “global Krakow / Kraków / Cracow” – 3.6 million websites. Obviously, the results are incomparable – for numerous reasons. The English language is much more popular than Polish – it is the online lingua franca and at the same time spoken in India and the UK. Moreover, whilst searching for “globalne, Kraków” one would have to enter the words in various declinations.
For Thailand, the share of exports to CLMV countries to total exports volumes has risen steadily to be over 10 percent surpassing our exports to 27 euro-zone countries combined. This reaffirms the shared benefits from trade and investment connectivity. Owing largely to complementarities in various dimensions among CLMVT economies, the integration should continue to further strengthen in the future. Expanding trade and investment has been accompanied and supported by development of domestic service industries and enhanced connectivity in the service sector. A case in point is the burgeoning growth of the airline industry, both low cost and full service. Over the past few years, any frequent traveler would easily notice a marked increase in a number of flights within the region, particularly those operated by low-cost airlines. Prices have been much more affordable, attracting travelers who otherwise would not travel by planes. The development does not only benefit the airline industry itself, but also unlocks potentials of many other industries and serves the citizens of CLMVT. More seamless travel promotes the tourism industry, reduces logistic costs, and overcomes obstacles to transportation, thus allowing closer people-to-people connectivity and opening up opportunities for people to realize their fullest potentials. Ladies and Gentlemen, Improved airline service and connectivity might only be one aspect of enhanced regional connectivity. Nevertheless, it serves us well as a model to develop other domestic service industries and to promote regional connectivity in the service sector.

Veerathai Santiprabhob: Financial connectivity in CLMVT (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand) Keynote address by Dr Veerathai Santiprabhob, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the CLMVT Forum 2016 “Towards a Shared Prosperity”, Bangkok, 17 June 2016. *  *  *  Your Excellencies, Honorable Speakers, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, A very good morning to you all, It is my great pleasure to be here with you this morning. I would like to start by thanking the Thai Ministry of Commerce for inviting me to give a keynote address at this important forum. Let me take this opportunity to once again welcome all our guests, especially friends from CLMV countries, to Thailand. I am very delighted to have this opportunity to meet with many ministers, senior government officials, and business leaders participating in the first CLMVT forum. This forum provides a meaningful platform for all of us to share perspectives on how to sustainably enhance regional connectivity and unlock great potentials of our region. Over the past decade, economic integration in our region has strengthened impressively. Driven by international trade, direct investment and production networks, the share of intra-regional trade within the CLMVT to total trade volumes has nearly doubled. Amid a slowdown in global trade due to gradual and fragile recovery of major industrial economies and China’s economic transformation, cross-border trade and investment activities within the region continue to grow at a fast pace.