samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
For example, the tapping of new source markets for tourists in European cities that were newly serviced by low-cost airlines allowed the hospitality sector to overcome the recession-driven weak demand in already serviced markets. Similarly, the financial and other services sectors continued to expand, thanks to the right conditions for growth, including the appropriate legislative environment. There are a number of reasons for being positive and optimistic about Malta’s potential growth in the future. In contrast to various developed countries, Malta has some structural issues that, if addressed, can provide opportunities for an on-going momentum to growth. Take for example the labour participation rate in Malta. Although it is among the lowest in the Euro area (as shown in Chart 4), Malta has gone a long way in achieving progress on this issue. Over the past ten years, Malta registered the largest increase, among the Member States, in the female activity rate, which rose from 36% in 2004 to over 50% this year. The recently introduced incentives for female participation will continue to steer our labour market in the right direction, also boosting Malta’s potential economic growth. At the same time, we also observe a higher number of foreigners who are contributing to economic activity in a variety of sectors. First, it has to be remarked that an expanding labour force through this route is in itself a sign of Malta’s strong rate of economic growth relative to other areas of the EU. Secondly, it reduces the likelihood of skill gaps in the labour market.

In transportation systems, ABMs have been used for traffic management, taxi dispatch, traffic signal control 6  and combined rail and road transport planning. Long before the age of Uber, ABMs were being used to 4 5 6  For example, Pelechano, Allbeck, and Badler (2007). For example, Rauh, Schenk and Schrödl (2012). For the review see Chen and Cheng (2010) 15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  15  7  maximise the efficiency of taxi pick-ups. They have been used as a means of undertaking air traffic control on a decentralised basis, including by the US Federal Aviation Authority. As well as increasing the efficiency of routing, this decentralised approach can improve aircraft safety by serving as a backstop when communication with a central air traffic controller is lost. 8  A more recent application of the same technology is autonomous vehicles, such as driverless cars. As with aircraft, these too need to solve a complex co-ordination problem, taking account not just of the environment but the behaviour of other agents. As with aircraft, these models can be used to demonstrate the scope for both efficiency savings (it is estimated each autonomous vehicle can replicate the performance of 11 conventional ones) and safety improvements (it is estimated an autonomous vehicle network might reduce road accidents by over 90%). 9  Figure 8: Air traffic and transport control  Figure 9: Electricity grids  Source: United States Air Force (public domain). Military air traffic controllers in a control tower (image available here).
Jean-Claude Trichet: Economic reform in Europe Contribution by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the Panel on EU/US cooperation at the Advancing Enterprise Conference, London, 26 January 2004. *  *  *  Mr Chancellor, Ministers members of the Ecofin, Ladies and Gentlemen, The European Central Bank (ECB) very much welcomes and supports the economic reform process in Europe and it is a great pleasure and honour for me to participate in this very distinguished panel. Well-designed structural reforms in capital, labour and product markets will increase the flexibility of the euro area economy, enhance its resilience against economic shocks and ultimately result in a higher long-term growth rate potential which should be our first priority in Europe. 1. The ECB contribution to long term sustainable growth  The ECB provides important contributions to the economic reform process by helping to ensure a stable macroeconomic environment in the euro area. In particular the ECB maintains price stability in the euro area and helps to ensure financial stability. Maintaining price stability contributes to an economic environment favouring growth and job creation. Four main reasons can be mentioned in this respect. First, it preserves and bolsters consumers’ purchasing power and enhances the efficiency of the market at allocating resources. Second, price stability paves the way for lower uncertainty and risk premia in financial markets: this ultimately implies lower medium and long-term interest rates.

In particular, a fiscal policy that is set according to rules, and is lived up to, adds to macroeconomic stability by providing economic agents with expectations of a predictable economic environment. This reduces uncertainty and promotes longer-term decision-making, notably investment decisions, and economic growth. Furthermore, it is important to keep in mind that fiscal policy can also promote growth and employment via appropriate adjustments of the level and composition of government taxes and expenditures. Reducing inefficient public spending can for example help to finance tax cuts. Furthermore, public expenditures can be redirected towards productivity-enhancing physical and human capital accumulation rather than, for example, the provision of subsidies for declining industries. As regards the Stability and Growth Pact most recent events, I would only say that the Governing Council shared the concerns of the Commission on the ECOFIN Council conclusions of 25 November 2003 and made it public. The Commission is the guardian of the Treaty and the Governing Council of the ECB respects the recent Commission’s decision to seek legal clarity. The Governing Council does not see a need for changes in the Treaty, and the Stability and Growth Pact in its current form is appropriate in its view. The Governing Council is in agreement with the  BIS Review 6/2004  1  Commission that the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact could be further improved, in particular as regards the analysis of structural balances and strengthening the incentives for sound fiscal policies in good times.
I hope this Conference will help us benefit from the exchange of experiences, strengthening working networks and acquiring the necessary know-how to adapt to this new economy, in the quest to ensure confidence in statistical institutions. Let me finish by thanking Erika Arraño, Felipe Avilés and Simón Guerrero for being the organizers of this Conference. I also thank Paloma Navarro, María José Reyes, and Alejandra Rosas for all their help managing the logistics challenges. Have a pleasant stay in Santiago and a fruitful discussion over the next day and half. Thank you ***  Page 4 of 4

While this is most visible for financial centres and very open small economies where global firms are large relative to the size of the domestic economy, these factors are also increasingly relevant for understanding the macroeconomic statistics of the euro area and other large economies. Complex cross-border production and ownership arrangements, such as contract manufacturing and merchanting, affect the measurement of the balance of payments and the national accounts through the booking of exports of goods that are neither produced domestically nor cross the border of the domestic economy. Moreover, transfer pricing – the pricing of the various transactions involved in intragroup crossborder production arrangements – substantially affects the amount and location of profits booked. Over time, the location of corporate structures has become increasingly mobile. This has been partly driven by fiscal and regulatory arbitrage incentives that motivate the re-domiciliation of headquarters and the geographical optimisation of the legal registration of intangible assets such as patents and copyrights. Intellectual property products (IPPs) have a high degree of cross-border fungibility and are of central importance not only for digital companies but also for other industries, such as pharmaceuticals. IPPrelated transactions, which primarily reflect the operations of a small number of large companies, have had a marked effect on the services component of the euro area current account balance and were also  visible – especially before the pandemic – in the euro area national accounts, where these appear as high imports of services and gross fixed capital formation (Charts 1 and 2).
These flexibilities allow us to adapt rapidly and without undue stress to new developments and shocks. Among its other virtues, inflation targeting is purported to improve the transparency and accountability of monetary policy and to help enhance the central bank’s credibility. These were also what we hoped the new framework would deliver for us. On the transparency front, the establishment of the Monetary Policy Committee as the decisionmaking body has transformed the way we conduct monetary policy. Today, the public can see what decisions have been taken, by whom, against what objectives, and for what reasons. On the accountability front, we have now learned to operate in the environment where the public expects us to keep inflation within the target range. This makes us extremely conscious of every policy decision we make, which in turn allows us to avoid potentially costly policy mistakes. But perhaps the biggest change is on the credibility front. The way we conduct policy and our track record have helped us to regain any credibility we may have lost following the unsuccessful defense of the baht. Public confidence in the Bank enables us to anchor private-sector expectations about future inflation, which in turn reinforces the effect of our policy. Yet despite all the good things inflation targeting has brought us, it is not a panacea. In other words, there are limits to inflation targeting. An apparent example here is development of asset prices. Also, past successes do not guarantee future success.

This was fueled in part by concern that the counterparty claims on failed institutions would be frozen and unable to be realized quickly. Not only did some core firms have inadequate capital and liquidity, they also faced conflicting incentives as to how to manage their capital resources. For example, many firms that came under stress were slow to cut their dividends or to raise new capital because of fears that such actions would signal their underlying weakness. Obviously, the failure to conserve capital made these institutions weaker rather than stronger. The crisis also underscored severe deficiencies in the international dimension of the regulatory environment. Financial institutions, flows and activities are global, but the vast majority of regulation and information sharing is contained within national boundaries. Where resolution regimes existed, they generally existed only for banking entities and were not set up to handle the orderly resolution of a large internationally active bank holding company or non-bank financial firm. This cross-border problem persists to this day. The interconnectedness of the financial system also caused shocks to spread quickly. For example, the failure of Lehman Brothers led to losses at the Reserve Fund, which precipitated a widespread money market mutual fund panic. It also led to actions by U.K. bankruptcy authorities that had the effect of freezing the assets owned by hedge fund and other clients of the firm and this encouraged such investors to pull assets from other institutions perceived to be weak.
In value terms, cash accounted for around 9% of all retail transactions in the early 1990s, whereas it is around 4% currently. Cash is generally used for small-value transactions. The latest evidence suggests that the average value of a cash transaction is around £ with 93% of payments under £ being made in cash. One in five adults in the UK report that they use only cash for day-to-day transactions, with this group heavily focused on teenagers/young adults and the elderly. The survey evidence also indicates that more credit-constrained individuals prefer to use cash, as a budgeting tool based, I think, on the principle that with cash you can only spend what you have. The paradox of banknotes This quick survey of trends in banknote demand and use leaves us with what I regard as the paradox of banknotes. The total value of Bank of England banknotes in circulation continues to rise, but their use in transactions is falling gradually. To recap, I have put forward some arguments that seek to explain this paradox. From a macroeconomic perspective, sustained low inflation has increased confidence in the real value of the currency, while more recently demand for banknotes has risen during this recession, and particularly for high denomination notes, reflecting loss of confidence in banks, and very low interest rates. ATMs have changed banknote issuance. And, banknote use is more concentrated among the young, the  6  BIS Review 162/2009  elderly, and those on low incomes.

Operations may be contracted on the basis of an exchange rate negotiated with financial institutions or the SML rate itself, calculated based on the average real-dollar rate published daily by the Central Bank of Brazil, and the Argentine reference peso-dollar rate. At the closing of both markets, the SML rate will be announced daily. Financial settlement of operations carried out through the system will take place in three business days (d+2). Banking institutions that have Reserve Accounts at the Brazilian Central Bank may be accredited to operate in the system. Authorization to operate on the exchange market is not a prerequisite. The SML is a highly promising initiative for small and medium businesses that have less access to derivative mechanisms to neutralize foreign exchange risk. At the same time, large companies have also shown interest in the system, primarily those that already have mature operations in the two economies. BIS Review 124/2008  1  There is no doubt whatsoever that the system we have just inaugurated will not only stimulate trade transactions between Brazil and Argentina but also enhance competitiveness in both countries. This initiative is a first and important step forward toward greater integration of our economies and of Mercosul. Congratulations to all of those who have played a role in making this historic moment feasible. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 124/2008
An increasingly tight labour market has led to rising wage growth. Last year’s wage settlements resulted in nominal wage growth of 6 per cent in 1998. Evidence suggests that wages in Norway rose by more than 71/2 per cent between the fourth quarter of 1997 and the fourth quarter of 1998. In the local government sector, wage growth is set to top 9 per cent at the end of the year. As pay increases became effective late in the year, the wage carry-over into 1999 (3-31/2 per cent) will be substantial. Assuming normal wage drift - roughly 1-11/2 per cent - and moderate negotiated pay increases, wage growth may easily near 6 per cent this year. Even if no negotiated pay increases are awarded, wage growth is not likely to be lower than 41/2-5 per cent in 1999 as a result of the substantial wage carry-over. The wide wage growth differential against other countries will continue. Wage growth in the euro area was about 1.7 per cent last year, and wage growth is expected to be about 21/2 per cent this year. A wage settlement with no increase in wages in Norway will, however, contribute to curbing annualised wage growth by a substantial margin in the course of the year. With sizeable labour shortages, a short-term interest of both employers and employees is high wage increases, with high wage growth as a result. However, the economy has built-in stabilisers. High wage growth will reduce employment and thereby the risk of persistently high wage growth.

It is possible to view the development in itself as a risk in that it has created new, potent instruments and possibilities for speculation. If used incorrectly or carelessly, these instruments could destabilise the financial system or in other ways lead to inconvenience. It is therefore important that both the financial agents themselves and the authorities responsible in this field closely follow developments in both theoretical and practical work and are prepared to take action if they identify risks to stability. Of course, it is another matter in this context - as in others - that the costs of new methods of control must be weighed against the risks to be managed. Regardless of the fact that there are now outstanding issues to be resolved to improve risk management, my overall conclusion is positive. The development underway with regard to identifying, measuring and managing risks provides possibilities to improve stability in the banks and other parts of the financial sector. We still have some way to go, but the work is proceeding and is presently in an intensive phase in both the financial institutions and the authorities concerned. The Riksbank intends to continue to play an active role in this work. Thank you. 4  BIS Review 10/2004
13.02.2020  Thoughts on global financial stability and the European Capital Markets Union Annual Spanish Capital Markets Conference/AFME (Association for Financial Markets in Europe) y AEB (Spanish Banking Association) Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Good morning. Let me start by thanking José María Roldán, Chairman of the Spanish Banking Association (AEB), and the Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME), today represented by Rick Watson and Richard Hopkin. It is they who have organised this 11 th edition of the Spanish Capital Markets Conference and invited me here today. It is my pleasure to share with you some thoughts on matters related to the environment in which financial markets operate. In my address today, I shall first give a broad overview of the main risks to global financial stability and the various policy actions that policy makers could consider implementing to mitigate them. Secondly, I will discuss recent developments and the way forward regarding the European Capital Markets Union. The state of play of global financial stability  The global economic outlook worsened during 2019. Indeed, global GDP growth in 2019 is expected to be the lowest since the international financial crisis; in addition, the balance of risks to this growth remained tilted to the downside, mainly as a result of the continuing high level of geopolitical uncertainty. The downward revision of economic forecasts over the past year was across the board; in particular, however, it affected the euro area and emerging market economies.

Such challenges relate, in particular, to the potential consequences of the “low for longer” scenario on the profitability of financial intermediaries in general, and of banks in particular, and on their attitude towards risk-taking. In addition, financial intermediaries are now facing a number of relatively new sources of uncertainty, including the simultaneous rise of new regulations, technologies and market players, against a backdrop of rising environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns. Along with these novel factors, new risks are emerging, ranging from cyber-risks and risks related to crypto-assets to misconduct and legal risks, physical and transition risks associated with climate change, and risks related to regulatory arbitrage. Both regulators  3  and market players are just starting to learn how to deal with and address all these new threats. Let me now share some thoughts on some of the risks I have mentioned and then suggest some policy actions that policy makers could consider implementing in an effort to mitigate them. -  Low bank profitability  Starting with low bank profitability, I would like to highlight three messages. First, this is more a regional than a global issue. In fact, the profitability ratios of banks across countries show marked heterogeneity. For example, the return on equity of Canadian, Swedish and US banks is relatively high. In contrast, banks in Japan and the euro area find themselves in the lower part of the distribution.
8 However, I would like to say nevertheless that the principles which guide monetary policy in modern central banks, and which I have described here, are so general that they should be able to act as guiding stars for monetary policy reform work anywhere in the world. Essentially it is a question of giving the central bank carefully specified – and realistic – objectives, granting it independence in its endeavours to meet the objectives and ensuring that it carries out its work in a transparent manner and is accountable for its actions. It is my conviction that reforms based on these principles will be beneficial to Vietnam, too. Thank you. 8  It can be noted, for instance, that Camen, U. and H. Genberg, (2005), ”An Inflation Targeting Regime for Vietnam”, paper prepared for the VERCON First Annual Conference, Hanoi, May 24, draw the conclusion that the conditions for introducing ”full fledged inflation targeting” have not yet been fulfilled in Vietnam. BIS Review 52/2006  7

Therefore, the effect of monetary policy depends on the distribution of firm-level financial conditions and how these conditions change with the business cycle. The two examples I have just referred to are very influential in the way we assess the macroeconomic implications of monetary policy. This is the place where academia and policymaking meet. As a matter of fact, policymakers around the world are in the process of introducing these new technical developments. The ECB stated in 2021 that it is committed to analyzing the implications of HANK models for the understanding of monetary policy transmission, focusing on the role of households and labor market heterogeneity. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada is working on the groundwork for such a model that includes heterogeneity in the income process of households, and its implications for optimal monetary policy. In addition, the Federal Reserve has already included analyses based on HANK models in their Federal Open Market Committee meetings as part of their review of their monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. In our case, the Central Bank of Chile is already developing a HANK model to study how the distribution of income and wealth affects the transmission mechanisms of aggregate shocks and the conduct of monetary policy. And, as you will see in the next few days, we have given important steps towards that goal. 4.