samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Fernando Restoy: Remarks on banking union Remarks by Mr Fernando Restoy, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the round table “Systemic risk and securities markets”, II International Conference on Securities Markets, held by the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV), Madrid, 14 September 2012. *  *  *  Let me first thank the organisers for their kind invitation to participate in this event held by the CNMV, of which I was Vice-Chairman from 2008 until my recent appointment in the Banco de España. I also had the privilege to participate in the highly successful conference organised in 2011. A glance at the quality of the papers and speakers in the programme of this conference is sufficient to confirm that the organisers have succeeded in maintaining the high standards achieved last year. Our Chairman today, Oscar Arce, deserves much credit for that. I am sure that the CNMV’s new top management – who will be taking over in a few weeks – will continue to support this event, as the President Julio Segura and myself did the first two editions. The current financial crisis has shown up numerous deficiencies in the functioning of the global economic and financial system. Many of those deficiencies are the consequence of imperfect rules, policy mistakes and inappropriate conduct by private agents. Some of those deficiencies are the subject of an on-going policy debate and of regulatory reform which, with varying degrees of ambition, is taking place in different jurisdictions.

However, in addition to imperfect rules and policy actions, the crisis has revealed a series of institutional deficiencies which need to be eliminated in order to restore economic and financial stability. The clearest example in this regard is probably the European institutional framework. Over the last three years we have witnessed how the perception of country risks has climbed to very high levels as a consequence of both sovereign credit risk as well as the so-called redenomination risk. This development has impeded the adequate functioning of monetary union by leading to sizeable differences in the financing conditions for agents located in different States within the monetary union and by instigating the renationalisation of financial markets. There can be no doubt that much of what has happened is directly linked to the significant macroeconomic and financial imbalances accumulated by several euro area countries, as well as to the emergence of vulnerabilities within the financial sector. It is also clear that the main remedy for those destabilising developments lies in effective adjustment of domestic policies, which is currently being implemented in those countries suffering the most significant stress. But, at the same time, the elimination of any perception of redenomination risks can only be fully accomplished if – in addition to the required domestic policy action – the central bank is fully and credibly committed to intervening in sovereign markets as far as is necessary to avoid the pricing of sovereign risk becoming self-fulfilling.
We have had low inflation and a low level of resource utilisation in the Swedish economy for a long period of time. During my first year as a member of the Executive Board from spring 2009 until some point in the middle of 2010, CPIF inflation was close to 2 per  5  See, for instance, Summers (2005) and Giannone, Reichlin and Lenza (2008). 6  This classification comes from Reichlin and Baldwin (2013). 7  See also Ekholm (2009). 8  See for example Bean (2009) and Bernanke (2010). 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  cent.9 But then it began to gradually fall to its current level of around 1 per cent (see Figure 1). The Riksbank’s forecasts have shown, and still show, that it will take a couple of years until underlying inflation begins to approach 2 per cent and resource utilisation normalises. This means that for several years inflation has undershot the target, at the same time as resource utilisation has been low. In this type of situation, a more expansionary monetary policy could have been used to reduce unemployment without creating a risk of inflation being too high (see Figure 2). Today there is quite simply no conflict of interests between inflation and unemployment of the type that was so common in the 1970s and 1980s, when the ambition to hold back unemployment was what ultimately pushed up inflation to levels that were unsustainable for the fixed exchange rate.

The result was a negative spiral, where expectations of continued high inflation and new devaluations affected price-setting and wage formation. Wage increases in Sweden therefore showed a higher trend increase than other countries. This in turn led to cost crises in the manufacturing industry, which were resolved through devaluations of the krona. This fulfilled the expectations of devaluations and thus sowed the seeds for the next round.1 In the middle of the 1980s, the Swedish credit market was deregulated, which was the starting point for a rapid credit boom and sharply rising prices for financial assets and property. The economic policy conducted could not withstand the pressure and the result was a property market bubble and a very overheated economy. When the bubble burst in the early 1990s, it triggered a financial crisis and a deep recession. Many were assuming that the old pattern would be repeated and that the krona would be devalued. But the political stance on this occasion was instead to once and for all disperse expectations of devaluations and show that they were serious about the fixed exchange rate. As you all know, this proved unsuccessful, despite a policy rate of 500 per cent and explicit support for the defence of the krona. In November 1992 the Riksbank had to give up the fight and let the krona float freely, which meant that it weakened significantly.2  1  See, for instance, Jakobsson (1997) and Jonung (1999) for descriptions of the economic policy problems during this period.
These measures are necessary to increase resilience. Banks also need to adjust to changing customer needs and to a more competitive and global environment. 10 This process of adaptation is challenging for the financial sector, but will be beneficial in the long term. The SNB also faces challenges. The current significant overvaluation of the Swiss franc implies macroeconomic costs in terms of lower growth and employment as well as negative inflation. While these costs must be set against the long-term benefits of macroeconomic stability, they engender painful adjustment processes in the economy. Our current monetary policy therefore reflects this difficult economic environment. Its two pillars, i.e. negative interest rates and foreign exchange interventions as required, serve to reduce the significant overvaluation of the Swiss franc and to guarantee price stability in the long run. To conclude, I would again like to emphasise that in order to achieve the goals of the financial sector and the SNB, we both need one another. On the one hand, the SNB acts as the bank of banks, providing a stable currency, liquidity and a payment system on which banks rely. By ensuring price stability and contributing to financial stability, the SNB helps create the conditions in which the financial sector can flourish. Banks benefit from a strong  10  6  See also Geneva Financial Center, Economic Survey 2015–2016, October 2015, which sets out the challenges Geneva, as a financial centre, is facing. BIS central bankers’ speeches  economy and long-term macroeconomic stability.

First, a growing share of new mortgage loans in this segment was used in 2018 to finance properties in regions with high vacancy rates. Second, the affordability risks of new mortgages financing residential investment property are high and have continued to rise. Since many of these loans also carry considerable loan-to-value (LTV) risk, they are  1  Cf. FINMA, Annual Report 2018, 4 April 2019. Page 2/3  Berne, 13 June 2019 Fritz Zurbrügg  News conference  particularly vulnerable in a scenario involving a correction in real estate prices and a sharp increase in interest rates. Given the risks I have just described, the SNB continues to take the view that targeted mortgage loan-related measures are necessary in the residential investment property segment. The SNB supports the Federal Council’s proposal to raise the capital requirements for highLTV loans in this segment. Specifically, this would involve increasing the risk weights for loan tranches exceeding two-thirds of the residential investment property’s value. The SNB welcomes the Swiss Bankers Association’s readiness to consider a revision to the selfregulation guidelines as an alternative to the Federal Council’s proposal. Such a revision would reduce the LTV ratio and shorten the amortisation period for new loans financing residential investment property. In the SNB’s assessment, the domestically focused banks hold sufficient capital to cover their risk exposure. Despite a fall in profitability in 2018 as a result of a further reduction in interest margins, they have been able to maintain their capital situation.
Some common rules, for example the Stability and Growth Pact, have been constructed to ensure that national fiscal policies do not pose problems for the union as a whole. There is also a continuous discussion of economic policy in various fora, of which the foremost are the Ecofin Council, made up of the ministers of finance and economy, and its subordinate committee, the Economic and Financial Committee, which also includes representatives of the national central banks. The euro countries’ ministers of finance and economy also meet in what is know as the Euro 11 Council. This framework has been finalised in principle but is being reassessed continuously in the light of new challenges. Economic activity in the euro area this spring has been weaker than anticipated and this has been accompanied by growing disparities between national growth rates, budget balances and inflation. As a result, a number of central questions about how the monetary union functions have quickly come to the fore in the member states’ discussions. Although Sweden is not participating in the euro area, developments there will affect us. This is a large currency area in our immediate vicinity with which we have widespread trading relationships. As a member of the European Union, moreover, we have to observe many of the established rules and guidelines; we also participate in the European discussion on the formation of economic policy. Against this background, my talk today concerns economic policy in Europe and the new conditions that accompany the euro.

Certainly, the measure which became effective in January where we reduce the reserve requirement for lending to net exporters and producers of electricity is already productive, we have already extended such loans worth approximately Euro 70 million this year, while the measure that should underpin the Denar savings for the account of the Euro savings became effective at the beginning of the year and we expect that the banks will adjust their interest rate policies to this measure in the following months. Did your forecast from the beginning of the year materialize, that the Government is not going to borrow much on the domestic market, at least in the first quarter? Within this period, since the beginning of the year, the Government is not borrowing much on the domestic market, because it has accumulated enough funds on their accounts with the  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  National Bank. Also, the funds it borrowed from abroad in the beginning of the year are still disposable on their account, because of which there was no need for additional debiting on the domestic market. However, some of the economists fear that exactly the foreign debiting is unfavorable, saying that it was made for unprofitable, unproductive purposes. How do you see this situation, is there a risk? Well, Macedonia has a lack of domestic savings, and as a country, we will need foreign savings for a long time, and that is the situation with most of the developing countries, if I may say.
BIS Review 149/2010  3  Role of financial systems Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, in development finance it is recognised that economic development is partially dependent on the financial system to help mediate the transfer of money to areas of the economy that need it most. The financial system has a number of key functions, which help facilitate these shifts in money that are important for sustainable economic growth. The most important of these are:   Savings;    Loans;    Investments;    Business Growth and    Government Expenditure  Responding to international capital flows Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, I would like to discuss, though briefly, the role international capital flows and their effects on our economies. Many of the same principles that apply in domestic capital markets also apply in international capital markets. The probability of default is essential to understanding international capital flows and exchange rate movements. Asymmetric information, for instance between foreign and domestic investors, can have important consequences. And, as in domestic markets, there is no presumption that the market, left to itself, is efficient. Today, developing countries are more vulnerable to international capital flows than ever before. What would have been a mistake with minor consequences in a closed economy can become magnified into a major crisis in an open economy. This is the lesson many people draw from the recent crisis which struck a number of economies in the world.

However, these developments also project the improvements in regulatory and supervisory oversight which continues to be updated. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, for Zambia the vision is to become a prosperous middle income country by the year 2030. In order for us to attain this vision, there is need to improve the financial infrastructure in Zambia. Since 2004, the Government has been implementing the Financial Sector Development Plan with the view to improve the functioning of financial markets and increase accessibility to financial services by a majority of Zambians. The second phase of the FSDP is currently underway after the initial five-year plan lapsed. We cannot deny that an improved financial infrastructure will result in efficient capital and money markets which in turn will attract domestic and foreign investment in the economy. Conclusion In conclusion Ladies and Gentlemen I would just want to emphasise that Zambia and many of our regional counterparts are small countries in need of investment. However, the high cost of capital has hampered the increase in investment, particularly among the SMEs which continue to face enormous financing challenges. Therefore provision of appropriate financing to this category of firms is likely to lead to higher investment opportunities and more efficient methods of production. In turn, this will translate into poverty alleviation due to employment creation.
The number of traineeship positions available in the second run of the attach-and-train Technology in Finance Immersion Programme has tripled, allowing 220 mid careers to be attached to and trained at FIs to gain experience in key technology areas in financial services. 10. I thank the financial institutions which have joined us today, and hope to strengthen and expand this partnership with MAS and our tripartite partners to create more job opportunities for Singaporeans. Creating the opportunities is only part of the task ahead. We need to bring together individual FIs’ contributions into a collective whole and help with job matching, so that opportunities can be more easily accessed. 11. IBF, as the integrated service provider for jobs and skills in the financial sector, will play the role of such a “match-maker”. The virtual career fair today, is one example, with 16 employers participating to provide a range of resources and opportunities for job seekers. Over the next 12 to 18 months, IBF will progressively hold more career fairs to help job seekers source for and navigate the landscape. Outside of career fairs, job seekers can also approach IBF Careers Connect for career advisory and matching to suitable opportunities in financial services. Another example would be the Singapore FinTech Association Jobs Portal which was launched on 20 July. To date, it lists over 500 job opportunities in the FinTech sector. At the same time, we need to upskill our workforce to deepen financial capabilities and acquire future-enabled skills so as to take on the opportunities created.

Jarle Bergo: The economic outlook Address by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), to invited foreign embassy representatives, Norges Bank, Oslo, 31 March 2005. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 16 March and on previous speeches. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The references and the Charts in pdf-format  can also be found on the website of the Norges Bank. *  *  *  Your Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen. First of all, I would like to thank you for taking the time to attend this event. It provides me with an opportunity to present Norges Bank’s view of the economic outlook. This year marks the centennial of the dissolution of the union between Norway and Sweden. Historically, an important part of nation-building has been the establishment of a monetary system and a central bank. In Norway, the stage was set for the introduction of a national currency in autumn 1814. With the prospect of a union with Sweden, a clause was included in the Constitution saying that Norway would maintain its own bank and its own monetary system. The monetary unit was the specie daler. In 1875, the Storting (Norwegian parliament) decided to join the currency union that Denmark and Sweden had established two years earlier. The specie daler was then replaced by the krone.
For several emerging economies, such conditions are reflective of the growing phenomenon of the urban poor, with significant implications for social stability and balanced growth. To address this, inclusive growth strategies have gained prominence in recent years among the policymakers in the region. This needs to be further reinforced by strategies targeted at preparing individuals at an early stage to be well equipped to adjust to the new economic, financial and social realities that confront them. This is where financial education has a fundamental role. A key concern in this environment is to strengthen the capability of financial consumers, in particular household and small businesses, so as to avoid being marginalised by market forces and by the disproportionate impact of the changing financial and social landscape. Related to this is the need to reinforce socially responsible finance, and to address the new and growing risks of financial exclusion. Sophisticated risk-profiling methods employed by financial institutions can make it more difficult for deserving individuals and businesses to  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  qualify for financial services. Among those that qualify, aggressive marketing practices and more complex financial products can also lead to poor financial decisions at a time when economic and financial reforms are also shifting greater responsibility to individuals to plan and provide for retirement and unexpected developments. Marketing practices that target select groups of consumers often further deprive the broader segments of society from new products that can better meet their financial needs.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  driven by the housing market, seen in the 10 year upswing of the last cycle. Trees cannot in the end grow to the sky. The debt stock of course tends to change relatively slowly. Credit is growing broadly in line with GDP. If it were to resume growing more than twice as fast as GDP, it could take a number of years for debt to income to retain its pre-crisis peak. But just as financial cycles build up over a number of years, the risks they pose are perhaps best managed over time. Given the vulnerability that already exists and the powerful drivers in the UK, particularly the housing market, if credit began again to grow faster than GDP, I would want to think about action to manage the financial stability risks sooner rather than later. References Aikman, D., Haldane, A. G. and Nelson, B. D. (2015), Curbing the Credit Cycle. The Economic Journal, 125: 1072–1109. doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12113. Arcand, J-L, Berkes, E and Panizza, U (2012), “Too much finance?”, IMF Working Paper No. 12/161. Borio, C (2012), “The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?”, BIS Working Paper No 395, December. Cecchetti, S, G, Mohanty, M, S, Zampolli, F (2011), “The real effects of debt”, BIS Working Paper No 352, September. Crowe, C., Dell’Ariccia, G., Igan, D., and Rabanal, P., (2011) “How to Deal with Real Estate Booms: Lessons from Country Experiences”, IMF Working Paper, WP/11/91.
The banking system’s claims on companies are forecast to increase by 7–11% this year, and those on households — by 14–18%, largely as a result of the accelerated expansion of mortgage lending. As regards fluctuations in banking sector liquidity observed in recent months, they had no impact on monetary conditions. As before, the Bank of Russia preserved money market rates close to the key rate. This became possible owing to the streamlined operational procedure which is efficient amid both a deficit and a surplus of liquidity. Today, we have published the Bank of Russia’s updated baseline forecast. It relies on the following assumptions: First of all, external conditions have become more promising. The global economy is expected to grow faster owing to mass vaccination and additional fiscal stimuli in advanced economies. This will strengthen external demand for Russian exports. Therefore, we have increased our forecast of oil prices from 45 to 50 US dollars per barrel for 2021 and 2022. Nonetheless, our forecast remains conservative given the high uncertainty about a potential further spread of the pandemic. According to our estimates, a faster recovery of the demand for oil may translate to a greater extent into a rise in oil output rather than oil prices. 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  As regards the 2022–2023 horizon, our forecast remains unchanged. The economy will expand by 2.5–3.5% in 2022 and by 2–3% in 2023.

13.12.2019  Session: “Central banks, financial inclusion and digitalization: harnessing technology for inclusive growth” Conference “Financial integration and inclusive development: A view from the Mediterranean Countries”/Banco de España e Instituto del Mediterráneo (IEMed) Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Good morning. It is a privilege for me to chair this panel on the importance of financial inclusion and how digitalisation can contribute to it. It’s all the more a privilege given that the panel includes governors from four countries with broad experience in promoting financial inclusion, where significant initiatives in this area have been launched with the central bank taking the lead. Access to financial services continues to be a primary problem globally. On the latest World Bank estimates, almost 1.7 billion adults do not have access to an account offering basic functionalities and, therefore, they are excluded from basic services such as payments, credit and saving. This has obvious repercussions for economic and social development, as there is a positive correlation both with growth and employment1, and it is thus essential to understand the causes behind it. In this respect, most studies have highlighted the fact that, although there may in specific cases be voluntary factors relating mainly to cultural or religious aspects, the explanation for this lack of access to financial services is usually to be found in involuntary factors.