Anita Angelovska-Bezoska: Statistical implications of the new financial landscape Remarks by Ms Anita Angelovska-Bezoska, Vice-Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at a panel discussion at the 8th IFC Conference “Statistical implications of the new financial landscape”, Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 8–9 September 2016. *  *  *  Contributors to the note: Ana Mitreska and Maja Andreevska. Since the burst of the crisis, central banking community has been providing unprecedented monetary stimulus with a view of influencing financial conditions and thus reviving the growth. The measures have gone far beyond the pre-crisis mode of operation. If conducting a monetary policy in the pre-crisis period seemed like steering a ship with rudder being enough powerful to protect against the waves, the waves that emerged in 2007–2008 were too strong and reliance only on the traditional instrument posed a risk of sinking. Thus, when the central banks approached/reached zero-lower bound, they were compelled to start experimenting with new policy tools such as balance sheet policies, forward guidance and in more recent period, even more extremely, with negative policy interest rate. Has this monetary accommodation served the purpose of influencing the financial and economic conditions? While there is ample evidence that the measures have succeeded in influencing financing conditions, so far there is not strong empirical evidence on their impact on output and inflation. In fact, despite the ample liquid and ultra-low interest rates, the output growth remains weak and inflation stubbornly low pointing to a weak monetary transmission mechanism.

Finally, I am concerned about a potential interaction between the financial uncertainty associated with the tapering program and the political uncertainty about fiscal negotiations in the US in the coming months. To close our conference, tomorrow we will have a policy panel where three distinguished economists: Guillermo Calvo, Vittorio Corbo, and Maurice Obstfeld, will share their thoughts on the end of QE and its consequences for emerging markets. We have navigated through challenging times in recent years. The decisive action of policymakers worldwide has spared the global economy from further trouble. In many cases policy has had to go ahead of research. But we should take time to think hard about these events; their causes; their mechanisms; and the benefits and costs of the policies being implemented. This will allow us to finish the course and to derive important lessons for the future. I am confident that the discussion of the next two days will help us advance toward this goal. I would like to finish this presentation by thanking Claudio Raddatz, Diego Saravia, and Jaume Ventura for putting together an exciting program and all of you for coming to participate and share in the discussion. Thank you References Bianchi, J. (2011) “Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle,” American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pp. 3400–3426, December 2011. Dell’Ariccia, G., Laeven, L., and Suarez, G. (2013) “Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy’s Risk‐ Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States,” IMF Working Paper 13/143, International Monetary Fund.