samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the US, the recovery will be supported by the labour market and rising asset prices. In Japan, the very expansionary economic policy is having an invigorating effect. Due to the upturn in world trade and the improvement in financing conditions, the euro area is also likely to emerge gradually from recession. In addition, the burden imposed by budget consolidation will be lower next year. Overall, however, the outlook remains uncertain. The risk of a deterioration in the global economy continues to be high. As before, the biggest risk remains a renewed deterioration in the euro area financial and sovereign debt crisis. Even though our baseline scenario  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  assumes a gradual solution of the crisis, it is possible that tensions could re-emerge on financial markets at any time. Swiss economic outlook In Switzerland, the economy experienced a temporary revival in the first quarter, as expected, and real GDP rose by 2.3%, in annualised terms. Thus, we experienced more favourable growth than our neighbouring countries. The difference is primarily attributable to domestic demand. Once again, growth was mainly driven by private consumption and investment in residential construction. These demand components benefited from the relatively robust labour market, a continued strong inflow of immigrants and the favourable financing conditions. In particular, the supply of credit in Switzerland is currently having a much stronger effect on the real economy than in most European countries. In the case of exports, however, there are no indications of a lasting revival.

Thomas Jordan: Challenging economic and financial conditions for the Swiss banking sector Introductory remarks by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the media news conference of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 20 June 2013. *  *  *  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro. The Swiss franc is still high. An appreciation of the Swiss franc would compromise price stability and would have serious consequences for the Swiss economy. In the current environment, the minimum exchange rate remains important in order to avoid an undesirable tightening of monetary conditions for Switzerland in the event of sudden upward pressure on the Swiss franc. We stand ready to enforce the minimum exchange rate, if necessary, by buying foreign currency in unlimited quantities, and to take further measures, as required. The target range for the three-month Libor will be left unchanged at 0.0–0.25%. Since March, the SNB’s conditional inflation forecast has remained almost unchanged, apart from inflation for the current year, which is slightly lower due to a reduction in the oil price. The forecast is again based on an unchanged three-month Libor of 0.0% over the next three years. For 2013, we now anticipate slightly lower inflation of –0.3%. For 2014, the inflation forecast is unchanged at 0.2% and for 2015 at 0.7%. Consequently, inflation in Switzerland will remain very low in the foreseeable future.
From now on, it is important that its corrective arm is used forcefully and without exception as soon as excessive imbalances which endanger the smooth functioning of EMU are identified. The roadmap to a complete monetary union is there: it was laid out in the recent Five Presidents’ Report. But the political will to enact it will not exist unless economic divergences are first ironed out. It is clear that monetary union cannot now be built from behind the veil of ignorance. But all countries can take measures to make their economic policies converge and reduce foreseeable risks, which is what makes mutual insurance possible. Ultimately, it is economic divergence that fuels political divergence, and this is what makes the euro area so fragile. Sustainable rebalancing is the first step towards avoiding such divergence. 15  See Cœuré, B. (2015), op. cit. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7

However, given that the controls on money laundering risks implemented at the financial institutions are increasingly tightened, there is this emerging consequence that DNFBPs, particularly the legal professionals, are increasingly becoming more attractive for the criminals to launder their ill-gotten gain. According to the report published by the FATF on money laundering involving legal professionals, key among those factors are the perception that the involvement of legal professionals provides a further step in the chain to frustrate investigation by law enforcement authorities. Thus, it is imperative for DNFBPs to increase their awareness and understanding on how their industry can be susceptible to money laundering and takes necessary measures commensurate with the money laundering and terrorism financing risks faced in offering such business activities. We hope that with higher awareness among the DNFBPs, we will be able to see higher number of submission of suspicious transaction reports from the DNFBPs. As the industry is aware, Bank Negara Malaysia is finalising the revised AML/CFT policies for DNFBPs and we are targeting to issue the policy before end of October. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the various associations and self-regulatory bodies who had provided comments and feedbacks to the draft policy papers that we had issued earlier. Bank Negara Malaysia will continue to support and partner the financial institutions to weather the challenges in fighting emerging trend in financial crimes. For this purpose, I would like to reinforce your attention that Malaysia’s AML/CFT regime will be undergoing the 3rd Mutual Evaluation Exercise commencing August 2014.
The availability of better data could, in turn, underpin harmonised climate-related disclosures. There is substantial scope for progress on these fronts and the ECB could lend crucial support to initiatives in these areas. For example, we have already committed to enhancing our own climate-related disclosures by measuring greenhouse gas emissions and other sustainability metrics of our activities, starting with our non-monetary policy portfolios. [23] This endeavour builds on the extensive work that has already been conducted by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), chaired by my colleague Frank Elderson, and the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). [24] Furthermore, we could amend our collateral framework, for example by including innovative financial products as eligible collateral, as we have recently done with the acceptance of sustainability-linked bonds [25], or by linking the eligibility as collateral to more comprehensive disclosures, reflecting European legislation such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). Such a step could support the development of consistent disclosure practices across Europe. There is also scope to incorporate climate risks into our stress tests, both in our own risk management practices and in our supervisory activities. The ECB is currently conducting a comprehensive top-down stress test to evaluate the risks associated with economy-wide climate exposures. [26] In 2022, the ECB will complement this work by carrying out a separate supervisory climate stress test of individual banks. [27] Finally, central banks can contribute to cutting-edge academic research on the macroeconomic ramifications of climate change.

So, this must be good news – apart from the inconvenient questions one asks from time to time about “How long will it last?” or “Is it sustainable?” For Emerging Market Economies, we have all witnessed the inflow of capital at the initial stages of the QEs, which drove up asset prices and inflationary pressure. This is not surprising as investors have no choice but to take aggressive steps to search for yields globally. This results in a misallocation of resources, as the abnormally low interest rates distort investment decisions by allocating capital away from productive real investment into risky assets that yield higher returns. The lack of real investment in turn reduces medium-term potential growth. Indeed, business investment growth in the US has been lacklustre since the economy recovered from the global financial crisis. The misallocation of resources aside, the search for yield behaviour also leads to a mispricing of risks across a wide spectrum of asset classes. In the US, junk bond issuance has risen sharply in the past few years, accounting for about 24% of all bond issuances so far in 2013, while the average high-yield spread has fallen below 5%. While the buoyancy in the asset markets helps support the economy in the short term, imbalances could build up in the economy and the financial system that may pose a threat to systemic stability when the unconventional monetary policies begin to unwind. 13.
If the element of national thinking in financial investments were reduced, more savers would also be able to benefit from a broader supply of products. At the same time, it is essential that increased financial exposures towards companies and financial operators in other countries occur in controlled forms, i.e. with a high degree of transparency with regard to the risks attached to them. This is particularly important with regard to financial commitments of normally very long duration, e.g. investments in connection with life insurance. There is reason to believe that the demand for financial services will continue to be a driving force behind the integration process and give a basis for further structural changes in the financial markets. Increased corporate financing through securities is one trend that will undoubtedly be further reinforced. Similarly, households’ saving in funds will probably show a rapid increase in the future, particularly in order to secure future pensions, and this will call for a capacity to diversify investments, where geographical spread in particular is an important aspect. In these two latter aspects, however, Europe is a long way behind the United States. One obvious difference between the US and Europe is that the banking system plays a much bigger role here. This 1  Heinemann, F & M Jopp (2002): The Benefits of a Working European Retail Market for Financial Services, Report to the European Financial Services Round Table. 2  idem.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  contracts essentially postpones the settlement of an outstanding purchase, while buying dollar roll contracts brings it forward. The Desk actively monitors implied financing rates on dollar roll contracts for the securities that the Desk expects to be delivered. When implied financing rates reach levels notably below the general level of short-term interest rates, thereby signaling supply concerns, the Desk sells dollar roll contracts to postpone settlement of that outstanding purchase.21 Our dollar roll activity is consistent with the guidelines laid out by the Treasury Market Practices Group (TMPG), an industry group sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. TMPG Best Practices encourage market participants who have amassed a particularly large position in the agency MBS market to manage that position mindful of the need to support market liquidity and to take care that sudden changes in trading strategies do not adversely impact liquidity or settlement.22 The Desk has often transacted in the dollar roll market when purchasing agency MBS to facilitate the orderly settlement of its purchases and will continue to do so as necessary to avoid deterioration in the liquidity of these contracts.23 Developing and implementing policies that are supportive of market functioning and monitoring market liquidity on an ongoing basis are important elements of the Desk’s work. However, actual or potential deterioration in financial market functioning is only one of many considerations in the FOMC’s monetary policy decisions. Moreover, signs of stress, if they emerge, may be unrelated to Federal Reserve policy actions.
3  BIS Review 7/2000  Chart 2: The Lamfalussy minimum standards  Lamfalussy standards • Well-founded legal basis • The risk must be known and understood • Clear division of responsibility • Exposure limits • Settlement is to be completed even if the largest participant experiences problems • Objective and publicly-disclosed admission criteria • Operational, reliable technical systems • Satisfactory back-up routines  The Lamfalussy minimum standards are still viable but, as mentioned above, some adjustments have been necessary in the light of what has been experienced since they first appeared in 1990. A proposal for revised standards is currently being evaluated in the BIS3 and a final version is expected to be available some time next year. I have pointed out these requirements because they are also relevent for us in Norway. If there should ever be any link to TARGET,4 our interbank systems would be expected to meet similar requirements. Moreover, we must assume that foreign bankers will demand that our systems satisfy international requirements. We could probably discuss whether these requirements are equally relevant for all portions of the NICS-system,5 but I think that in a given situation involving a link-up with an international system, we will have only one choice - full implementation of the requirements! In the proposed system for licensing interbank systems, emphasis will be placed on evaluating whether the systems fulfil such international requirements. 3. Risk and efficiency in the Norwegian payment system  3.1.

We will make sure that this issue, too, is given due consideration in the discussions about the future of the Swiss banking sector. For only with an effective monetary policy can we fulfil our responsibility and ensure price stability for Switzerland. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention. 4/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
Figure 20: Risk Premium Indicators 2008 yılının Ağustos Ayına Göre Ülkelerin 5 Yıllık CDS Değişim Oranları (29.08.2008 değeri, 1 olarak alınmıştır) 5.5  Turkey Türkiye Brazil Brezilya S. Africa G.Afrika Macaristan Hungary G.Kore S. Korea  4.5 3.5  900 800  EMBI+ Türkiye  700  EMBI+  EMBI+  600 500 400  2.5  300 1.5  EMBI+ Turkey  200  0609  0109  0808  1007  0308  100  0809  0609  0409  0209  1208  1008  0808  0.5  Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. In the third quarter of 2009, in line with the improvement in global risk perceptions, capital inflows towards emerging markets through portfolio movements increased and currencies of the said countries began to appreciate (Figure 21). Turkey was no exception to this development. This development prevented the hikes in commodity prices in the third quarter to translate into domestic unit costs. Figure 21: Exchange Rate Developments  Brazil Brezilya Chile Şili Czech Rep. Çek Cumh.

It is impossible to benefit from past experience in gauging the impact of recent global monetary policy measures on economic activity and other fundamental variables. Although not having resorted to explicit quantitative easing in the post-crisis period eliminates some of the risks in case of Turkey, it should still be noted that the full impact of the cumulative easing of 1000 basis points since November 2008 is yet to be seen. In other words, although the baseline scenario does not envisage any policy rate hikes for an extended period, it is important to closely monitor the impact of policies to ensure a timely response to any development not envisaged within the framework I drew in my assessments above. Another possible scenario is a surge in capital inflows to emerging markets owing to the relative improvement of credit risk across these countries. Ample liquidity with low cost driven by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies on a worldwide scale, coupled with rising risk appetite, have led to an increase in the demand for financial assets of emerging markets. Current low levels of resource utilization in the Turkish economy imply that a fall in the cost of imported inputs may be reflected on to the consumer prices rapidly, suggesting that a further acceleration in capital inflows may exacerbate downward risks on inflation. The realization of such a scenario may lead to temporarily lower policy rates compared to those envisaged in the baseline scenario. Esteemed guests, The CBRT will continue to monitor fiscal policy developments closely while formulating monetary policy.
With the conclusion of ABIF, ASEAN members are now pursuing reciprocal bilateral agreements, which will detail measures on market access and operational flexibilities for QABs in the respective countries. The future looks bright. Last December, Malaysia and Indonesia signed a Heads of Agreement which will provide opportunities for banks from both economies to expand their scope of operations and businesses in each other’s markets. As such, we should witness an expanding network of bilateral agreements in the coming years. In line with its focus on the principles of inclusiveness, reciprocity and mutual benefit, ABIF allows member countries to manage systematically the integration process, while taking into consideration, national development objectives and financial stability. Countries which are ready to proceed will be able to start the integration process early and at their own pace. Other countries will aspire to meet the preconditions and will be supported by the region’s collective commitment to capacity building efforts, so that they can progress steadily towards achieving a state of readiness to enable full participation in the integration process. In the insurance sector, continuing progress is being made to strengthen insurance regulatory and supervisory frameworks in the region through observance of the Insurance Core Principles as an important precondition for more integrated insurance markets. This process has been supported by the ASEAN Insurance Regulators forum and its training arm. Going forward, progressive liberalisation of the insurance sector in the region will be guided by the ASEAN Insurance Integration Framework.

Thus, Board Members may never be aware of the company’s problems. If and when they have been informed of the problems, it may already be too late, as evidenced in the case of Enron. It is for the above reasons that the authorities here in Asia, are pushing for the separation of Chairman and CEO positions so that they cannot be occupied by the same person in order to properly balance the powers and functions of the two roles. It is also fortunate for us that the practice of issuing stock options to directors of financial institutions is not yet widespread among banks in Asia. Ladies and Gentlemen, What I have highlighted is only one facet, and in fact only half of the story of good governance: that is what NOT to follow. Let me turn to the other issue of the missing link in the Western concept of governance. In the Western World, the focus of the governance structure is to protect the interest of the organization and its shareholders. It ensures that the management or staff would not abuse their organisation for personal gains. However, there is nothing in the Western structure of governance that talks about the need for the protection of consumers’ interests, and, more importantly, the interests of society at large. A corporation that grows sustainably does so because it has earned the recognition of its customers.
Minouche Shafik: Making markets fair and effective Speech by Ms Minouche Shafik, Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking of the Bank of England, at the London School of Economics, London, 27 October 2014. *  *  *  Accompanying figures can be found at the end of the speech. Making markets fair and effective It is a real pleasure to be giving my first speech as Deputy Governor of the Bank of England at the London School of Economics (LSE). It resonates on so many fronts. The LSE has produced many members of the Monetary Policy Committee, Deputy Governors and indeed Governors of the Bank of England as well as vast numbers of its staff over the years. I was taught macroeconomics at the LSE by Charlie Bean, one of my predecessors at the Bank as well as by my host this evening, Nick Stern, when I did the MSc in economics. And the topic of my speech tonight resonates with the origins of the LSE as an institution that always sought to bring the best of academic thinking to the pressing problems of the day. As you will no doubt realise by the frequency of misconduct stories in the papers, Fixed Income, Currency and Commodity (or FICC) markets are certainly dealing with pressing problems.

That model is now changing, as increased risk aversion and regulatory reforms designed to return the cost of liquidity and capital to more sustainable levels favour more agency-based trading models. The potential diminution of liquidity in some FICC markets has been raised as a concern by many investors and end-users. This is therefore a finely balanced issue for us to explore. How are competitive conditions likely to change, and what lessons can be learned from other markets, both in the financial sector and more widely? What could be done to strengthen market discipline? Is there sufficient awareness of the scope and nature of the authorities’ competition powers? And how best can conflicts of interest intrinsic to specific trading models be managed? 3. Benchmarks  The third category is benchmarks. There has already been substantial reform in this area, as I have mentioned, and more is on its way. The question we ask in the consultation document is whether this goes far enough. Could steps be taken to reduce or diversify the reliance of asset managers and other investors on benchmarks? Are there additional changes that could be made to improve their design, construction and governance? What further measures are required to ensure full compliance with IOSCO’s standards for better benchmarks? And how can the regulatory framework provide protections to market participants in other jurisdictions in a proportionate way? We then turn to the three conduct categories.