samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This means that energy prices are included but they have considerably less weight than in the CPI. Of the measures that we use for underlying inflation, the CPI-ATE has tended to be lowest. All four measures indicate that inflation has been moderate in recent years and have implied an expansionary monetary policy. The rise in prices we have recently observed could affect inflation in the period ahead through compensation for earlier inflation, the pass through of costs to selling prices and through expectations of future price inflation. By using various measures of underlying inflation, we seek to capture the portion of the rise in prices that may influence future inflation. It is always difficult in real time to determine which price movements will persist and which will only have a short-term effect on the CPI. An assessment of underlying inflationary pressures should probably be based on several different indicators and developments in these should be followed up by discussion and interpretation of the underlying causes. Allow me to conclude. Developments over the past 40 years have illustrated that the most important contribution monetary policy can make to sound economic developments in the long term is low and stable inflation. This provides the economy with a nominal anchor. In its conduct of monetary policy, Norges Bank operates a flexible inflation targeting regime, so that weight is given to both variability in inflation and variability in output and employment.

Our experience may indicate that inflation expectations remain stable even if inflation varies somewhat as long as the interest rate is used actively to dampen the effects and monetary policy is oriented towards achieving the inflation target over time. The interest rate was reduced to a very low level when inflation fell and approached zero. At the same time, we indicated that the interest rate would remain low until there were clear signs of a renewed pickup in inflation. If low inflation were solely associated with economic downturns, it would have been necessary to reduce the interest rate even further and keep the interest rate lower for a longer period. At this juncture, it our view that inflation could be brought back to target over a longer period because output has increased markedly. We are currently adjusting the interest rate, in small not too frequent steps, towards a more normal level. Since June 2005, the key rate has been increased by a total of 1 percentage point and we have signalled that further interest rate increases are in the offing. We expect inflation to rise through 2007  1  The chart is from Archer. D. (2005): “Central-bank communication and the publication of interest rate projections”, presented at Sveriges Riksbank’s conference: “Inflation targeting: implementation, communication and effectiveness”: http://www.riksbank.com/templates/Page.aspx?id=15814. 4  BIS Review 49/2006  and be close to the target of 2.5 per cent at the end of 2008. This is supported by a number of factors. Capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy is picking up.
We have mapped out a clear strategic direction to ensure that our operational framework focuses on the primary responsibility of achieving financial and monetary stability. Among the major changes being proposed BIS Review 85/2000  2  in the new Bank of Thailand Act is the adoption of inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policy. This is aimed to provide a clear and transparent rule of operation and signaling to market participants. The proposed amendment of the Bank of Thailand Act clearly states that the overriding objective of the central bank is price stability. To implement this, a Monetary Policy Committee has been set up, the results of whose deliberation are to be disclosed regularly to the public, and an Inflation Report is to be published quarterly. As for our supervision function, we are moving towards a risk-focused supervision and improved disclosure and accountability system. The formal policy framework is to be set by the Financial Institution Policy Committee which similarly has members from outside the BOT. May I add that to expedite the promotion of transparency, we have set up these two committees even before the new law has come into effect. Thus highly respected and well qualified outside persons now have a say in the deliberations on both monetary policy and financial institution policy. The technological challenge The 1997 crisis set back economic and financial development in Thailand by many years. These have to be made up through speedier reforms and a catching up process.

The decline is partly the result of debt restructuring, as well as transfers of non-performing loans to Asset Management Companies (AMCs). As at the end of July 2000, restructured debt totalled 281,222 cases with a corresponding credit outstanding of 1.7 trillion baht, while cases in the process of restructuring totalled 22,906 with a corresponding credit outstanding of about 773 billion baht. With cleaner balance sheets, banks are in a better position to start lending. 1  BIS Review 85/2000  Now that the situation has stabilized, post-crisis rebuilding and reconstruction in the banking system must be pursued vigorously, both through policy-induced means as well as through individual firms’ initiatives. To reduce reliance on bank credit, the capital market must be developed as an alternative channel for funding. This will help rectify an important weakness of the past whereby firms relied excessively on bank borrowing and were not able to access funds directly from the capital market. Among initiatives to promote the capital market which are being pursued by the authorities are the development of the domestic bond market, the corporatization of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) to widen membership and participation, as well as acceleration of the privatization process to increase the supply of new listings on the SET. Looking ahead, competition facing the financial industry will come not only from the entry of new participants, especially foreign players, but from competition across industries or frontiers such as between banks and securities firms.
A primary focus of the new Prudential Regulation Authority will be on determining whether the business models, governance and systems and controls of firms will enable them to satisfy the public interest in financial stability in future states of the world. That requires both a macro and micro prudential view, and for the two to come together to reach forward-looking judgements on whether financial stability is likely to be preserved in a range of plausible future outcomes. This range of outcomes is important, and it also underlines the need to build up the role of stress testing. Such testing is an important mechanism for describing the forward-looking view though it should continue to evolve from a binary pass-fail world into one where it is a toolkit to test a range of possible future states of the world and thereby judge the wider resilience of firms. The PRA will exercise judgement in the supervisory actions it takes, so that firms are likely to be able to meet its objectives, policies and rules over the medium term horizon. Firms will need to demonstrate to the PRA that they are robust to a variety of states of the world, including unanticipated stress scenarios. However, since it is not possible for any forecast to cover all possible outcomes, there will always be some probability of firms failing.

5 The evidence from the Bank of England’s Agents and recent employment surveys is that the labour market in the UK has stabilised and that labour demand in the private sector may have already started to pick up. Companies also seem to have adjusted quickly to a lower level of demand and activity in the recession, and the most recent surveys do not point to an unusually large margin of spare capacity remaining within firms. For example, the latest CBI survey shows 62% of manufacturers reporting some spare capacity – which is virtually in line with the average for the decade before the financial crisis. 6 The evidence on wages and prices is also consistent with the view that spare capacity is not exerting as much downward pressure on inflation as the MPC expected last summer. In the manufacturing sector, underlying wage growth is back up to the 4–5% level already, though is more subdued in the services sector. And after quite widespread pay freezes last year, the latest pay settlements data from Income Data Services show that the most popular range for pay settlements is currently 2–3%, which is where four out of ten pay settlements are now being struck. If the recovery continues and headline inflation remains relatively high, there may be a further upward drift in pay growth in the private sector, offsetting some of the downward pressure on wage growth from the public sector.
Broad impact on the economy All in all, the Swiss economy got off relatively lightly compared with other countries in the difficult years following the global financial crisis – and this despite the fact that, as a small open economy with a large financial sector, we were hit hard by the shocks. This can be mainly attributed to two factors. First of these was the remarkable flexibility of Swiss companies and workers, which made it possible to increase efficiency, develop new products, and tap into new markets. Coupled with this, the SNB’s unconventional monetary policy substantially cushioned the blow of external shocks. The real trade-weighted exchange rate of  Page 4/8  the Swiss franc has thus remained fairly stable since September 2011. Were it not for the negative interest rate and the extensive interventions by the SNB, Switzerland would today be facing a different economic reality. The franc would have become much stronger, inflation would have fallen well below zero, growth would have slowed abruptly and unemployment would have risen markedly. For us there is thus no question that the negative interest rate was significant in helping Switzerland emerge from a difficult period in good shape. And it is still making an essential contribution to ensuring that our economy continues to fare well today, despite the array of uncertainties worldwide. But how exactly does negative interest work? Negative interest rates take effect on an economy in a very similar way to a monetary policy with positive rates.

In less developed countries, food is a very significant component of overall purchases by consumers. In a developed country such as the United States, food is a much smaller share of overall purchases. Thus the impact of a food-supply shock on the overall inflation rate and on other important economic variables such as wages and total imports can vary widely by country. Given the different impacts of supply shocks, it is not surprising that monetary policy is likely to react differently to a supply shock such as food, depending on the unique characteristics of the particular country. Figure 17 shows that in the United States, the importance of food as a component of inflation measures has been declining over time. And, despite improvements in energy conservation that have lowered the per capita consumption of oil, higher energy prices have contributed to recent increases in the importance of energy in the consumer price index. The fact that food and energy prices have been quite volatile recently, but remain a relatively small part of the entire basket of goods, helps to explain why core inflation rates have not been particularly responsive to food and energy shocks. Concluding observations In conclusion, I recognize that recent supply shocks have caused pressures on many household budgets, and have led some analysts and observers to become concerned about potential long-term inflationary impacts.
On the contrary, what is important to bear in mind is that by ensuring a stable price and financial environment, the central bank helps foster economic growth. I believe that no central bank can maintain price stability over the longer term without public support for the necessary policies. Only with the confidence of the public in their policies and their own lasting dedication to non-inflationary growth together with a well-functioning financial system can central banks succeed in achieving and maintaining price and financial stability. BIS Review 17/1997

The Swedish Parliament (2022), "the Riksbank's monetary policy 2015–2020 has been evaluated", published on 31 March, available at The Riksbank's monetary policy 2015–2020 has been evaluated - the Riksdag. 13 [19]  Figures Diagram 1. Inflation in various countries and regions Annual percentage change  Note. Consumer prices refer to the CPIF for Sweden, the CPI for the United States and the United Kingdom and the HICP for the euro area. Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden, UK Office for National Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Riksbank. Diagram 2. Riksbank's asset holdings Nominal amounts, SEK billion  Note. The bars refer to executed and decided purchases. Source: The Riksbank. 14 [19]  Tabell 1. Purchases of securities by ECB, Federal Reserve and the Riksbank Government securities  Commercial paper  Regional and municipal bonds  ECB*  🗸  🗸  Federal Reserve  🗸  🗸  🗸  The Riksbank  🗸  🗸  🗸  Covered bonds  MBS & ABS  🗸  🗸 🗸  🗸  Note. Mortgage Backed Securities (MSB) and Asset Backed Securities (ABS) are similar to covered bonds in that there is an underlying collateral for the bonds in the form of a loan portfolio. The difference lies, among other things, in different regulatory requirements and in which party has the underlying collateral on its balance sheet. *The ECB has also purchased bonds by supranational bodies. Source: Hansson and Birging (2021). Diagram 3.
As part of our Financial Sector Master Plan, we have implemented a 10-year programme to increase consumers' financial literacy. We are now in the third year of the programme. The effective participation by the public in the financial system needs to be an informed participation. There needs to be better understanding of the consumer's financial rights and responsibilities, the opportunities and the associated risks and costs. Bank Negara Malaysia LINK through its exhibitions, interactive information kiosks and booklets, will serve as a channel to provide consumer financial education to the public. In this connection, Bank Negara Malaysia LINK will provide information relating to conventional and Islamic banking, insurance and takaful, SMEs, foreign exchange administration, Central Credit Reference Information System (CCRIS), Biro Maklumat Cek, development financial institutions, and other financing related matters. Bank Negara Malaysia LINK would also attend to public complaints on the above matters. As part of efforts to preserve the history on Bank Negara Malaysia's role in nation building, Bank Negara Malaysia LINK also includes a section on the Bank's contribution in shaping the country's economy and financial sector since the 1950s. Ladies and Gentlemen, The establishment of Bank Negara Malaysia LINK takes the Central Bank's public outreach programme to a higher level. By providing a centralised platform for the public to seek information and address financial issues, it is our hope that Bank Negara Malaysia LINK will be instrumental in building bridges between consumers, including SMEs, the financial business community, consumer associations and policymakers.

We believe in the importance of this outreach effort not only because the public has a right to an informed participation in their financial dealings, but also because it is also an important part of our collective and combined efforts that will determine the success of our endeavours. Tuan-Tuan dan Puan-puan, Akhir sekali, saya ingin mengucapkan berbanyak-banyak terima kasih kepada Yang Amat Berhormat Perdana Menteri atas kesudian beliau melancarkan Bank Negara Malaysia LINK. Sekian, terima kasih. 2  BIS Review 12/2005
We should not lose sight of the absolutely vital achievement of establishing monetary policy regimes that carry credibility with households, firms and markets. But, in terms of demand and output, underneath a surface of smooth growth at the aggregate level lay horribly imbalanced economies. And given the length of time this persisted, it may well have affected the pattern of investment, and so led to a distribution of the economy’s supply capacity that would be out of line with better balanced demand. It is hard to tell. I don’t much like slogans, but the “Great Threat” might have been a galvanising refrain. BIS Review 21/2010  5  The monetary transmission mechanism: we must embed the renewed interest in financial markets, money and credit As Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, observed at Jackson Hole last summer, 3 economists developed a habit of thinking of the financial parts of the monetary transmission mechanism as more or less fixed for practical purposes. But, in fact, the evolution of the financial system – due to regulation, innovation, and animal spirits – can, subtly or not so subtly, alter the ways in which our interest rate changes flow through to the real economy. Twenty years ago there was great interest in this kind of thing, perhaps reaching its apogee in the BIS’s Cross Report 4 on the effects of interest rate and foreign exchange derivatives on monetary policy and macroprudential policy.

And we are observing no taper tantrum in response to the current plans aimed at unwinding the ECB’s QE: so far, emerging countries appear to be surprisingly resilient. The likely reason is a different backdrop, with rising commodity prices and synchronised global growth as the leading factors. I will close with a short observation on the so-called China effect in relation to emerging markets’ resilience. For decades, China has pumped savings into the global economy. Among other effects important for advanced and emerging economies alike, this inflow of savings has depressed the global equilibrium interest rate. The decrease in the equilibrium rate has, in turn, restricted the options of central banks around the world and nudged them to rely more on unconventional policies, with important effects on the stability of flows to and from emerging economies. But the China effect will soon start to ebb as the country’s dependence ratio spikes, pushing global interest rates higher. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
If we start with the date that was set in the original decision – the beginning of 1995 – CPI inflation up to today has averaged 1.4 per cent. If we instead go back to January 1993, when the new policy was announced, the same figure is 1.7 per cent. If we focus on UND1X, the underlying measure that guided policy especially in recent years but also during a large part of the period 1996-1999, the corresponding figures are 1.8 and 2.0 per cent, respectively (see Figure 1). 2  BIS Review 11/2005  Whether this constitutes a good result or not is open to discussion, of course. Allow me here to simply say that when the target was adopted, and as an observer outside the Bank, I thought like many others that it would be very difficult to bring inflation down sustainably to a level around 2 per cent. What is particularly interesting in this context is that it has proved possible to establish a regime with a low inflation rate, close to the target, and to combine it with firm economic growth, which over these years has averaged almost 3 per cent a year, compared with about 2 per cent during the two previous decades. If anything, economic growth also appears to have become more stable since the inflation target was introduced.2 Another way to assess policy is to study whether we have acted in the way that we say we will, i.e. followed our policy rule.

One consolation for those who wish for an answer is that they can form an opinion of how the Executive Board develops its view of monetary policy through the Inflation Reports, speeches and the minutes of the monetary policy meetings published. 1. Different measures of inflation Annual percentage change  6  6  5  5 CPI UND1X  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1 1993  -1 1995  1997  1999  2001  2003  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  8  BIS Review 11/2005  2. Repo rate decisions and inflation forecasts, 1999-2004 Per cent  0,50 IR01:1 IR02:3 IR03:4 IR04:2  Repo rate change  0,25  0,50 IR00:4 IR02:1  IR99:2 IR00:2 IR01:3 IR04:3 IR04:4  IR01:4  0,25 IR99:4  IR03:3  0,00  0,00  -0,25  IR99:3 IR00:1 IR00:3 IR01:2 IR02:2  IR99:1 IR02:4 IR03:1  IR03:2  -0,25  IR04:1  -0,50 -0,6  -0,50 -0,4  -0,2  0,0  0,2  0,4  0,6  Forecast deviation from inflation target  Source: The Riksbank  3.
This would have been the 21st century equivalent of capitalising the ashes in the blast furnace. For what goes around comes around. Hypothetical losses during 2008 would then have totalled in excess of £ billion, as the risk from these projects was realised. The ashes in the furnace truly turned to dust. Had shareholders not already torn it out, this rollercoaster ride in profits would have been hair-raising. In this admittedly extreme case, it is questionable how much shareholder protection fair values would have delivered in practice.   “Fundamental misalignment”  A related but distinct issue arises when market prices deviate from their true values for a protracted period. Marking to market then runs the risk not just of unwarranted volatility but unjustifiable bankruptcy. Take a bank whose liabilities are perfectly maturity matched with its 10-year assets. So there is no necessity for the bank to liquidate its assets to make good its liabilities as they fall due. But the market price of the banks’ assets might well embody a premium for instant liquidity – a liquidity premium. As Chart 5, at times of stress, these premia are large and overshoot, lowering asset prices below economic value. In this situation, a marked to market balance sheet may give a misleading impression of banks’ worth. And if these distortions are large enough, fair values could even generate insolvency.

By 2008, the ranks of “accomptants” had swelled, with numbers of recognised accountants in the UK totalling over 275,000. Yet the issues today have loud echoes of 1938. Through the 1990s, the main international accounting standard-setters extended the boundaries of fair value. In the US, this was given impetus by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act (FDICIA) in 1991. Widespread use of mark to market was a key ingredient of the prompt corrective action approach embodied in FDICIA. From 1992, it became a requirement among US companies to disclose the fair value of all financial instruments in the notes to their accounts. Towards the end of the 1990s, this move was formalised with financial instruments (derivatives, equity and debt) being included explicitly in the accounts at fair value. In the US, this followed adoption of Statement of  5  United States Securities and Exchange Commission (2008). 6  FDIC (1997). 7  In a letter to Richard Breeden, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which refers back to the 1930s experience, then-Chairman Alan Greenspan notes “that market value accounting raises a substantial number of significant issues that need to be resolved before considering the implementation of such an approach in whole or in part for banking organizations”. Alan Greenspan, “Letter to Hon. Richard C. Breeden,” Federal Reserve, November 1, 1990. 8  Simonsen and Hempel (op. cit.). BIS Review 28/2010  3  Financial Accounting Standard 133 (SFAS 133) in June 1998.