samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The proceeds from the gold sales are placed in a bond portfolio, whose composition differs from that of our currency reserves. Approximately 65% of the portfolio is invested in Swiss franc bonds or hedged against exchange rate risks. The rest consists of bonds denominated in euros (25%), US dollars (3%) and other currencies (7%). The average duration of the portfolio is about three years. This investment profile takes account of the SNB's legal framework and of the fact that future beneficiaries will want their return denominated in Swiss francs. The market value of the gold proceeds amounts to approximately Sfr 8 billion. Since it was created in May 2000, this portfolio generated an average annual yield of 4.3%. The legal provision still prohibiting the National Bank from acquiring equities has in fact rather well served the interests of the future beneficiaries of the free assets, as stock markets have been on a decline since May 2000. Next September, the Swiss people will have to decide on the appropriation of the free assets. There are several conceivable scenarios: either the so-called gold initiative is accepted, or the counterproposal of the Federal Council is accepted, or both proposals are rejected. Each scenario has different implications for the date of transfer of the free assets and for the SNB's balance sheet.

2  BIS Review 39/2002  Whatever the outcome of the vote, we believe that the funds allocated to the free assets are no longer needed for conducting monetary policy and that, therefore, they have to be assigned for other purposes. As soon as one of the proposals put to the vote is accepted and the operational framework allowing such a transfer has been put in place, the National Bank can transfer these assets to the future beneficiaries. Should both proposals be rejected, this will not be interpreted as a mandate for the SNB to reintegrate the free assets into its monetary reserves. In this case, we will instead continue to manage the free assets separately until a new allocation has been decided on. The income from this portfolio will be recorded in the SNB's ordinary income statement and will become distributable only once the profit distribution agreement between the SNB and the Confederation has been revised. In this case, the income might lead to an increase in the SNB's annual distribution of currently Sfr 2.5 billion. BIS Review 39/2002  3
8  Further, the longer interest rates remain high, the greater the likelihood of additional upward adjustments to banks’ funding costs and of a deterioration in credit risk quality. With regard to financing, the gradual reduction in, and increased cost of, Eurosystem liquidity facilities and the developments seen in deposits (with depositors seeking better remunerated financial instruments and having used up part of the savings buffers built up during the pandemic) may accelerate the increase in banks’ cost of funding. The continuation and/or heightening of the recent tensions in the global banking sector could also contribute to this increase. As for the future increase in credit risk, our estimates show that a market interest rate increase of 400 bp, somewhat larger than the gain of approximately 365 bp seen in the 3month EURIBOR, could push up non-financial corporations’ median gross debt burden ratio by between 2.9 pp and 6.8 pp9 and the share of corporate debt held by firms under high financial pressure10 by between 6.5 pp and 8.9 pp. In the case of households, it is estimated that a 400 bp rise in the 12-month EURIBOR (slightly less than the 410 bp increase seen since the beginning of 2022) would raise the percentage of indebted households with a high net interest burden11 by 3.5 pp. This increase would tend to be stronger for lower-income indebted households, which are also those most affected by the rise in inflation.

Banking sector solvency - The CET1 ratio decreased by 25 bp in 2022 with respect to 2021, albeit holding above pre-pandemic levels. The decline in 2022 was on account of the growth in total assets (2.6%) and the increase in risk-weighted asset (RWA) density (53 bp), which could not be offset by the 2.1% rise in CET1 capital. - The change in CET1 ratios in 2022 was also uneven across banks. The three largest banks, which at December 2022 accounted for 76% of RWAs,  7  saw their (RWA-weighted) average CET1 ratio fall by 33 bp,5 while at other banks it increased by 8 bp. - Spanish banks’ CET1 ratios remain at the low end of European banks’ CET1 ratio distribution for different bank sizes and business models, although they are clearly above average requirements and, on aggregate, provide significant loss-absorbing capacity. - The latest stress tests conducted by the Banco de España6 considered a hypothetical adverse scenario in which inflation pressures increase further in 2022-2024, with a subsequent tightening of financial conditions.7 The materialisation of the adverse scenario would reduce the aggregate CET1 ratio by 2.3 pp with respect to the beginning of 2022, although the reduction would be uneven across the different institutions.8  Conclusions Overall, euro area and, particularly, Spanish banks are highly resilient and have sound capital and liquidity positions. This is the result of the regulatory reform agreed internationally over the last decade, which in the EU has been applied to all banks, irrespective of their size.
I strongly believe that this is not true. If a proper restructuring is to be done, professional restructuring people without historical relations to the customer should do it. Whenever I have been persuaded otherwise I have later been proved wrong. The second argument for transferring the non-performing assets is related to this. When the management of a bank has a large number of bad credits to take care of, that is exactly what they do. All their capacity is used up taking care of problems and there is no time - and no money - to think about the future. This is disastrous for the whole organisation, which tends to become backward looking and defensive instead of forward looking and offensive. Only when the bad assets are out of the books of the bank, the minds of the management and thus of the employees can become aimed towards the future. Having decided to transfer the bad assets, the next obstacle will be to decide on the prices. The bank usually considers the non-performing assets to be quite valuable, at least in the long run. Selling at what might be considered present market prices will create too big a hole in the balance sheet to make management comfortable. The management of the new AMC quite naturally has a different view. It has no wish to get assets into its balance sheet at values that later turn out to be excessively high.

Usually, small and simple loans are provided at branch office level, but larger and complicated loans are provided at successively higher levels. Banks have also adopted internal risk evaluation systems in which the individual loans are graded according to their risk. Loan documentation is improved to facilitate monitoring of the loan but also to ensure that the bank can collect on the loan in the event of a judicial process. In Sweden, concentration of credit risk was a major problem during the crises. Some two thirds of the losses were linked to the sharp price declines in real estate. A loan and its collateral must be evaluated separately, something that we had forgotten during the many years of regulation. If the expected returns from the investment made by the loan are uncertain or not adequate the loan should in most cases not be given, irrespective of the collateral. The reason is that the collateral, in a crisis situation, often proves to be worth far less than expected. This is particularly true when it is tied to the borrower - such as when a company has put up its own building as collateral. The linkage between credit risk and foreign exchange risk was large during the Swedish banking crises. This was seen also in the Asian crises in 1998. For example: Swedish borrowers wanted loans in yen and German marks because the interest rates in these currencies were low.
Changes in unemployment appear to have a fairly immediate impact on wage growth. 5  The correlation between these two data series is highest when the output gap is deferred 4–5 quarters into the future. 6  Unemployment measured according to LFS  7  Mainland hourly wage growth from quarterly national accounts  BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Not unexpectedly, there is also a close statistical relationship between wage growth and the rise in prices for domestically produced goods. It appears to take about one year for changes in wage growth to feed through to inflation. Such observations of data provide a picture of some of the interrelationships in the economy, but they say little about causality or how interest rates feed through to the economy. Correlations are nevertheless interesting as a background for the analytical tools that are used in interest rate setting. Historically, the interest rate has been set in response to various developments and shocks. In this respect, the interest rate is an endogenous variable, that is to say it is dependent on other economic variables. The relationship between the interest rate and other key variables has through history also been influenced by shifting monetary policy objectives. Let us look at two different situations. In the first, there is an unexpected sharp rise in inflation. In response, the interest rate could be raised to bring inflation down again, which will curb growth in household and corporate consumption and investment.

This growth rate, in turn, would still not be sufficient to ensure convergence with the average per capita GDP of the EU twenty years from now. For this latter objective to be achieved, a real growth rate of some 4 per cent would be required. The way forward: a concerted push for faster growth These scenarios underline the urgency of achieving more rapid, sustainable growth. The longer it takes to expand the productive base of the economy, the more onerous the challenge will be. The prospects for a significant recovery in the short term, moreover, are doubtful since oil prices are expected to remain at their current high level, and the dynamic benefits of fiscal consolidation and EU membership are unlikely to exercise a marked impact on growth in the coming months. Growth forecasts for 2006 vary between 1% and 2%. The current economic situation, therefore, requires decisive action designed to produce early results. I, therefore, feel obliged once again to make a strong appeal to all the social partners not to underestimate the threat which today’s realities represent for the wellbeing of their own members, and to cooperate in the search for real, long-term solutions in the national interest. The alternative is a slow, but depressing process of stagnation.
Mr. Camdessus shares his views on a new financial architecture for a globalized world Address by the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Mr. M. Camdessus, at the Royal Institute for International Affairs in London on 8/5/98. The G-7/G-8 Summit will be held in Birmingham next week. High on the Summit agenda will be the issue of how to renovate the architecture of the international financial system in the face of the tremendous changes under way in the global economy. The Asian crisis has been so unexpected in many of its aspects, so broad, so cruel in its human consequences that even before the crisis has run its full course - the leaders of the world want to embark on the design of a new architecture. This is certainly the right thing to do, and the venue of this meeting could hardly be more fitting. Like many other cities in advanced countries, Birmingham has experienced the forces of change in the global economy first hand - from the loss of traditional industries to the challenge of finding new employment opportunities. Moreover, two centuries ago, this city was at the heart of the Industrial Revolution, an era that, like our own, was a time of extremely rapid change. At that time, intellectuals of all schools of thought used to meet frequently in Birmingham - every full moon, I understand - and bring their reflections to bear on the challenges of their new world.

Chairperson, there can be no true development in our Bank without good and effective leadership. Leadership is required for us to achieve our objectives. We live in a dynamic world which calls for good leadership dedicated to hardwork, daily learning , fast thinking and acting swiftly and prudently at all times. Ladies and gentlemen, you will recall that not too long ago, we were all involved in the review of the Bank’s strategic plan and came up with the 2009–2012 Strategic Plan. In order to fully implement the goals and objectives of our strategic plan we need to enhance our leadership skills. It is against this background that this workshop was organised. Our desire is to constantly upgrade our leadership skills for the attainment of our goals and objectives even in the face of daunting challenges. In conclusion, I wish to urge you to actively participate and take a keen interest in the deliberations of this workshop. It is our expectation that you will have an opportunity to carry out an appraisal of your individual leadership style and refine it in order to impact positively on policy and the way the Bank operates. With these few remarks, it is my pleasure to declare the workshop officially open and to wish you all fruitful deliberations. I thank you! 2  BIS Review 107/2010
Your Excellency, from this, it is clear that the current strengthening of the Kwacha has been caused mostly by changes in economic fundamentals. I recognise the concerns by some of our exporters of non-traditional commodities that they are losing external competitiveness. I wish to point out that not all has been lost as a result of the appreciation of the Kwacha. Some non-traditional exporters have benefited through, among other things, the reduction in the cost of capital goods and imported raw materials. In addition, may I mention the fact that the exchange rate alone does not determine external competitiveness of exports. Exporters should look at those areas in their production processes where they can attain efficiency gains and improve productivity. These efforts need to be complemented by Government through directing investment in infrastructure and structural reforms, including labour  BIS Review 72/2006  3  laws, so as to reduce the cost of doing business in Zambia. On its part, the Bank of Zambia will carry out its function of smoothing the movements in the exchange rate in a way that would not compromise the low inflation objective. At this point, Your Excellency, Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to humbly say once again that I am deeply honoured to be invited to address you on this occasion. I thank you for your attention. 4  BIS Review 72/2006

Over the years, delegates from central banks of 30 different countries have attended the Conference. This growing international attendance makes particular strength of the Conference showcasing diverse experiences from very different areas of the world driven by the common interest in payments and market infrastructures. Equally appreciated is our domestic audience that continues to valuably contribute to the Conference each year. Focusing on current issues in the payment systems, the Conference agenda is each year carefully designed to cover the latest trends and feature the main challenges in the area. Variety of interesting topics has been on the menu so far including the European payment landscape and legislation with a special focus on PSD and PSD2; topics related to payment systems and payments oversight; the EU payment integration initiative known as Single European Payment Area (SEPA); then, innovations; security and efficiency of retail payments. We have elaborated 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  on instant payments, financial inclusion and accessibility of payment services, financial structures resilience and many more. This year’s agenda covers themes related to digital banking, cryptocurrencies and their regulation, the new technologies such as DLT and blockchain – all of them being topics of considerable relevance at the moment, and will only become more important over time. Bracketing this jubilee edition we had the pleasure of hosting many distinguished speakers from various affiliations starting from central banks, through relevant international institutions, commercial banks, clearing houses and custodians etc.
Under what we called the “half-half” copayment schemes, even sidewalk vendors in the market have the QR codes and mobile application that allow them to access the digital technology. That is a welcomed change as a result of the COVID-19 and it will improve the ability of the government in providing income supports in a more transparent and timely manner. The last part of infrastructure is the legal, regulatory and business-type infrastructure. For example, according to the Global Competitiveness Index in the area of corporate governance based on the latest World Economic Forum report, we are at 23rd compared to Indonesia which is at 57th, the Philippines at 100th, and Vietnam at 104th. It is the area that we have done quite well and our firms are certainly, compared to 20 years ago, much more professional and transparent in character. In terms of ease of doing business, I am sure many of you heard from the World Bank that our ranking has improved steadily. Back in 2016, we ranked at 46th in terms of the overall ease of doing business, while the latest ranking, we are up to 21st. Page 7 of 11  This is not to say that it is that easy for you to do business already and certainly there are rooms for improvement. One of the important things holding us back is the excessive, cumbersome, and inconsistent regulations issued by different government agencies.

We will soon be setting up a dedicated unit on SupTech, to synergise and strengthen these efforts and help sharpen our supervisory practices. Cyber security And last but not least, cyber security. Cyber-attacks are a growing threat to the financial ecosystem, and FinTech could potentially accentuate this risk. As more financial services are delivered over the internet, there will be growing security and privacy concerns from cyber threats. And maybe even systemic concerns. It is not inconceivable that the next financial crisis is triggered by a cyber-attack. We need to develop the regulatory and supervisory capabilities to address these emerging threats. Cyber risk management will be the new frontier for global regulatory efforts and supervisory cooperation. The BIS has set up a taskforce to develop international guidelines on cyber-security responsibilities for banks and fund-transfer providers, with the aim of making global payments safer. More such initiatives are likely in the years ahead. Another area that will be a growing focus is information sharing. Unlike other traditional risks facing financial institutions, cyber risks are less visible and yet often afflict multiple firms at the same time given the interconnectedness of the financial sector. The sharing of timely and actionable cyber information among financial institutions is therefore key to building resilient cyber defences within the financial ecosystem. MAS has collaborated with the Financial Services Information Sharing and Analysis Centre (FSISAC) to establish an Asia Pacific (APAC) Regional Intelligence and Analysis Centre. The Centre will encourage regional sharing and analysis of cybersecurity information within the financial services sector.
Money and capital market interest rates have fallen by over 60 basis points since the introduction of negative interest (slide 4). Interest rates on bank loans have reacted much less strongly to negative interest, however. The SNB does not charge negative interest on all sight deposits, but grants banks and other financial market participants exemption thresholds, so that the banking system does not have to carry the full burden resulting from the high level of sight deposits. Due to the significant expansion of liquidity, most banks have now completely exhausted these exemption thresholds. If the SNB supplies the system with additional Swiss franc liquidity – notably, by selling Swiss francs in exchange for other currencies on the foreign exchange market – the banks’ interest rate burden increases. This makes holding additional Swiss franc liquidity even less attractive. Innovations affecting financial market infrastructure I now come to my final topic – innovations affecting financial market infrastructure that is relevant to the fulfilment of the SNB’s mandate. The changes relate to the new trading platform for repo transactions and the next-generation Swiss Interbank Clearing (SIC) payment system – both key components of Switzerland’s financial market infrastructure operated by SIX and its subsidiaries. Both Switzerland’s finance industry and the SNB depend on a reliable, secure and efficient financial market infrastructure. It is an important prerequisite for the SNB to be able to fulfil its statutory duties – providing the money market with liquidity as well as facilitating and securing cashless payments.

Like other central banks, we are constantly refining our forecasting tools to enable us to become better at predicting the future. Hopefully we will gradually increase the precision of our forecasts. However, at  2  BIS Review 101/2006  the end of the day it is not realistic to believe that we should be able to predict this type of event in its entirety. With regard to developments in recent years, it is also an important insight that inflation has been held down by forces that are essentially favourable for the economy. To put it another way, developments have been dominated by positive changes in what is known as the supply side of the economy. The fact that prices are pressed down by increased competition and increased foreign trade is something we all can benefit from – as consumers. And the fact that productivity growth in the economy is high should benefit everyone in the long term, in the form of increased welfare. Our monetary policy strategy Before we look ahead, it may be useful if I explain how we reason in general when making our interest rate decisions. The objective of monetary policy is price stability – in other words, low inflation. We have specified this as consumer prices, measured according to the consumer price index, increasing by two per cent a year. As it takes time before interest rate changes have an effect, monetary policy must be based on forecasts of the inflation rate a couple of years ahead.