Stronger than expected pipeline pressures or higher than anticipated increases in wages or profits could drive up inflation, while financial market  2/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  tensions and falling energy prices could lead to faster disinflation. At the same time, most measures of longer-term inflation expectations currently stand at around two per cent, although they warrant continued monitoring. Euro area banking sector, non-bank financial sector and financial stability Euro area banks remain resilient in the current market environment thanks to strong capital and liquidity positions. Since the start of the ECB's policy rate hiking cycle, euro area bank profitability has been boosted by higher interest margins, while the change in impairments and provisions has been rather muted so far. However, in the current environment of tightening financing conditions including for banks, credit risks have increased, and lending dynamics have substantially weakened, which may weigh on future bank profitability. The decrease in bank lending to firms has, in general, not been offset by an increased recourse of firms to market-based financing, despite a bout of corporate bond issuance in the fourth quarter of 2022. Looking ahead, the decline in the asset purchase programme portfolio will increase the share of debt issuance that needs to be absorbed by investors. Based on their past behaviour, investment funds appear able to absorb part of such an increase. At the same time, in spite of some reduction in exposure to higher-risk assets, structural vulnerabilities in the non-bank financial sector remain elevated.

Christine Lagarde: IMFC statement Statement by Ms Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, at the forty-seventh meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, IMF Spring Meetings, Washington DC, 14 April 2023. ***  Introduction Since the October meeting, the global economic outlook has improved on the back of a gradual easing of global supply bottlenecks, declining energy prices, and the recovery of the Chinese economy following the lifting of pandemic-related containment measures. Global inflation has also been declining since it peaked in summer 2022, supported by easing supply constraints, as well as by the tightening of monetary policy among advanced economies. However, the recovery prospects for the global economy remain fragile amid continued uncertainty, fuelled by Russia's unjustified war against Ukraine, and the possibility that pressures in global energy and food markets may reappear, leading to renewed price spikes and higher inflation. Resilient labour markets and strong wage growth, especially in advanced economies, suggest that underlying inflationary pressures remain strong. At the same time, other factors that may accelerate disinflation include: persistently elevated financial market tensions, falling energy prices, and a weakening of demand, owing also in part to a stronger deceleration of bank credit or a stronger than projected transmission of monetary policy. As inflation is projected to remain too high for too long, the Governing Council of the ECB decided in March to raise the key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing the total increase since July 2022 to 350 basis points.