samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Political uncertainties are on the rise, especially in the EU, which has to contend with Brexit negotiations and elections in France and Germany. Populist movements are on the rise in many parts of the world. They could precipitate a more radical shift in policies that could in turn dampen confidence and investment. Finally, I have not said anything about the Singapore economy. I will leave that to MTI’s Annual Economic Survey, the report of the Committee on the Future Economy, and the Budget Statement – all happening next month. Suffice to say: The Singapore economy is expected to continue on its modest pace of expansion this year. GDP growth is likely to come in the 1-3% range. Modern services – including finance, business, and ICT – will be supported by continued growth in the region and our growing status as a hub. Our trade-oriented industries should benefit from the mild upturn in global and regional electronics. In fact, the strong showing in the last quarter of 2016 indicates that the Singapore economy retains the capacity to ride on cyclical upswings in demand for our exports. That is not to say that all is well. Economic restructuring remains work-in-progress and we need to do more to raise productivity growth. Singapore will not be immune to the global tightening of financial conditions, volatility in capital flows, and potential stresses in the regional corporate sector. But our macro fundamentals are sound and we will weather these storms.

With low resource utilisation one can expect that inflation will be pushed down as the pressure on wage and price increases will be low. The weak international demand is of course one factor that is beyond the Riksbank’s control and in this sense monetary policy  housing market. In the case of Australia, there are no clear signs that they have faced this kind of trade-off during the period following the financial crisis. This is clearer for the period 2002–2004, but then inflation stayed within the target interval of 2–3 per cent and was only close to the lower interval limit for one quarter. 6  See Sveriges Riksbank (2014a). 7  See Sveriges Riksbank (2014a). 8  See Nekarda and Ramey (2013). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  cannot be blamed for the low inflationary pressure. At the same time, it is the role of monetary policy to counteract this type of downward pressure to stabilise inflation around the target. Monetary policy may have contributed in different ways Personally, I believe that the monetary policy conducted is an important contributory factor to the fall in inflation. The fact that household indebtedness is taken into account in the monetary policy decisions – and the repo rate is thus held somewhat higher than the prospects for inflation and resource utilisation have justified – has probably made the krona stronger than it would otherwise have been and also held back domestic demand.
Let me now present in more detail the macroeconomic scenario we believe to be the most likely in the quarters to come and its associated risks. Macroeconomic scenario In July, annual inflation returned to the tolerance range. As I said, the behavior of the exchange rate has played a key role in this process, as it allowed us to leave behind the upward effects of the sharp depreciation the peso experienced in 2013–2015. Considering the average of the ten days prior to the statistical cutoff, the dollar was trading at somewhat less than 670 pesos, equivalent to a nominal appreciation of the peso of around 4% with respect to the close of the previous Report (figure 1). The evolution of the exchange rate has had visible effects on the goods component of core inflation (i.e., the CPIEFE, or CPI excluding foods and energy). In annual terms, it went from around 5% early the year, to 3.7% in its latest measurement. Inflation of the services component of the CPIEFE has made a smoother adjustment, from 5% to 4.5% annually in the same time span, reflecting its indexation to past inflation and output gaps that have not widened much. Accordingly, and as expected, the total CPIEFE has seen a reduction in its annual expansion rate. The more volatile items in the basket showed dissimilar movements in the past three months: while annual food inflation rose, energy inflation fell (figure 2).

In addition to the requirement for equal charges, the new Regulation envisages requirements with respect to currency conversion charges related to card payments and electronic credit transfers which are expected to increase transparency and to ensure comparability in cases where a payment service user is faced with a choice between currency conversion alternatives f. According to the requirements concerning currency conversion charges related to card payments, payment service providers and the parties providing currency conversion services at an automated teller machine (ATM) or at the point of sale shall provide information prior to the initiation of the payment transaction for the total currency conversion charges expressed as a percentage mark-up over the latest available euro foreign exchange reference rates issued by the European Central Bank. In addition, the payer must also be provided, prior to the initiation of the payment transaction, with information about the amount to be paid to the payee in both the currency used by the payee and in the currency of the payer’s account. With regard to the requirements for currency conversion charges related to electronic credit transfers, payment service providers will be obliged to inform the payer prior to the initiation of the payment transaction about the expected currency conversion charges applied to the credit transfer, the expected amount of the credit transfer in the currency of the payer’s account, as well as about the expected amount which will be transferred to the payee in the currency used by the payee.
The supervisory activity, along with prevention of extreme cases of insured institutions’ bankruptcy, carries out also the administration of such institutions, in cases when they fail irrecoverably. In this stage, the role and contribution of the Deposit Insurance Agency, until that moment “invisible”, appears with the whole magnitude and importance. It is indispensable not only in terms of treating depositors that have had savings at the bankrupt institution, but also in the “calming down” effect for all the depositors of the banking system. In fact, the world experience has indicated that the deposit insurance function of the customers of the banking system is an important instrument in the framework of maintaining the banking system sustainability and keeping public confidence in it. The timely payment of the deposit value at the insured amount, in the case of a bank’s bankruptcy, allows responsible authorities to be focused on the procedures intending the isolation of the case and the recovery of the values of the bankrupt institution. The activity of responsible deposit insurance institutions has different characteristics in different countries. Their legal framework provides responsibilities that are limited only in the role of the payer of the available fund and other cases, when responsibilities are extended further, up to the recovery of the insured institutions’ values that have gone bankrupt.

Nevertheless, efforts are made constantly for fulfilling the necessary legal framework and procedures, covering all possible directions of its activity. Simultaneously, there is worked in terms of organizing the structure, increasing the institution’s staff number and training. Emphasis is laid on the DIA’s cooperation with the Bank of Albania, the supervisory authority, so that the DIA carries out its functions effectively. At the same time, the relation with the Ministry of Finance is taken into consideration in organizing the Deposit Insurance Agency’s structure, so as to have the solid presence of the state in it. The forms of this cooperation are numerous, but all of them should be first consolidated under normal conditions of the banking system activity. The main elements of this cooperation are: •  Exchange of information on supervisory practices and observance of regulatory requirements by the insured entities;  •  Organization of joint trainings in getting acquainted with respective functions;  •  Acquaintance with and discussion on manuals and procedures requiring the commitment of both institutions in certain cases, and the testing of these procedures. The Bank of Albania and the Deposit Insurance Agency are working for enhancing this cooperation constantly. 2/3  A number of legal and regulatory alterations that are being prepared in parallel by both our institutions, and the exchange of information, as well as more frequent contacts between both institutions serve this purpose.
All in all, there is, at present, no reason to speak of a credit crunch. However, this favourable situation could soon worsen, as has been observed in other countries. I will now conclude this second section with a few brief remarks on movements in monetary aggregates. Having declined until recently, monetary aggregates are now rising slightly. Following the interest rate cuts, we expect that growth in monetary aggregates will gather pace over the coming months. Given the current heavy demand for liquidity, higher money growth does not, of itself, indicate an increase in inflation risks. Only if money growth were to become excessive over a longer period would this pose a threat to price stability in the medium term. Inflation outlook In addition to the rapid worsening of the global economy and the financial crisis, the third factor behind our policy of successive rate cuts since October is the radical change in the inflation outlook. Inflation risks have largely dissipated since our last quarterly assessment on 18 September, leaving considerable room for manoeuvre in monetary policy, which we have firmly exploited. As you know, last December inflation breached the 2% ceiling above which the SNB considers that the conditions for price stability are no longer met. The rapid rise in inflation – indeed, at the beginning of 2007, we still had zero inflation – was due to the combined effect of a virtually unbroken rise in oil prices and the healthy state of the economy.

For example, the leading global fund managers recently indicated that they consider sustainability to be a core criterion for investment selection, given that sustainable portfolios could offer higher risk-adjusted returns and that companies that follow sustainable criteria may have greater potential for success in the medium term. Let me finish my address by highlighting that there is still some considerable distance between expectations and the reality of the data at hand, but also that the pace of change is very brisk. Standards are and will always be imperfect, but this is no excuse for us not to try to move forward. Thank you. 4
It has proved difficult to show that attempts at short-run exchange rate stabilisation, using either the repo rate or interventions, have been particularly successful. Neither does experience from other countries with a flexible exchange rate provide all that much support for such a policy. At the same time, increased credibility has made the gradual modification of the Riksbank’s view easier. The Riksbank has accordingly chosen to be comparatively inactive in the currency market. At the same time, an exchange rate that is highly volatile and displays pronounced fluctuations clearly has drawbacks; the uncertainty it generates is liable to spread to other financial markets, besides complicating corporate and personal decisions about investment, production and consumption. In recent years the Riksbank has therefore occasionally chosen to intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to underscore its appraisal of the situation. It need hardly be said that if such interventions had been judged to conflict with the inflation target, they would never have been considered. As long as the Riksbank targets inflation directly, I see no reason to change the current principles for our behaviour in the currency market. But I also want to underscore that the approach to the exchange rate in an inflation targeting strategy is by no means self-evident. Some central banks that target inflation—the Bank of Canada is one example—seem to react to short-run exchange rate fluctuations more frequently, sometimes guided by a monetary index, partly with the aim of stabilising markets and expectations.

Such a difference would also be motivated if the market rate were to be affected by short-term shocks in financial markets. In the light of what we know today, however, the direction of the krona’s path seems to be clear: ERM2 membership, if it occurs, will be arranged at an exchange rate that is stronger than the recent level. 7  BIS Review 48/1999
Overall, we expect price stability to be maintained over the medium term, thereby supporting the purchasing power of euro area households. Inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. The firm anchoring of inflation expectations remains of the essence. Monetary policy will do all that is needed to maintain price stability in the euro area over the medium term. This is the necessary and central contribution that monetary policy makes to fostering sustainable economic growth, job creation and financial stability. All the nonstandard measures taken during the period of strong financial market tensions, referred to as “enhanced credit support” and the Securities Markets Programme, are fully consistent with our mandate and, by construction, temporary in nature. We remain firmly committed to price stability over the medium to longer term, and the monetary policy stance and the overall provision of liquidity will be adjusted as appropriate. Accordingly, the Governing Council will continue to monitor all developments over the period ahead very closely. Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. After a period of sharp decline, euro area economic activity has been expanding since mid2009. According to Eurostat’s first estimate, euro area real GDP increased, on a quarterly basis, by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2010. While adverse weather conditions, in particular, dampened growth in the early part of the year, the latest economic indicators suggest that a rebound took place during the spring.

Peter Pang: Managing the next phase of growth in Asia Welcome remarks by Mr Peter Pang, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook, Hong Kong, 28 April 2011. *  *  *  1. Good morning. It is my great pleasure to welcome you all to the launch of the latest issue of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook (REO). We are honoured to have Mr. Anoop Singh, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF, and his colleagues to share with us today their views on the region’s economic and financial developments, the outlook and the challenges, and what can be done to manage the risks and promote sustainable growth in the years ahead. 2. I like the theme of this issue of the REO – “Managing the Next Phase of Growth” – as this is what concerns us most in Asia at this juncture. We are now some two-and-a-half years after the outbreak of the global financial crisis, and Asia has been leading the global recovery – a recovery that is maturing as rightly pointed out by the IMF. The question is where and how we should move on from here. And looking ahead, managing the next phase of growth is very challenging as we are facing complications of unprecedented scale and dimensions. 3.
Assessing whether these developments are in fact delivering concrete gains requires cool heads and careful judgment. My own view is one of pragmatic optimism. There are promising portents, but relatively little concrete evidence as yet, of the UK achieving the improvements in productivity that have so benefited the US economy in recent years. That does not mean that it will not happen here. But it does mean that we need to be both vigilant to avoid the pitfall of anticipating the gains before they arrive, and alert to capitalising on them if and when they begin to come through. Overall, then, the prospect we face is an immensely encouraging one. We need to remain vigilant, but, provided we take no risks with the progress we have made in recent years in maintaining low inflation, the prospect is for continuing growth overall on a basis that can be sustained into the medium term. For the Bank of England, our first, and continuing priority, has to be to continue to deliver the stable monetary framework - of interest rates directed at maintaining low inflation - as a platform on which commerce and industry throughout the country can continue to build their business and generate the sustained growth in output and employment that will provide permanent improvements in living standards. BIS Review 62/2000  2

Tuan-tuan dan Puan-puan, Kami amat berbesar hati dengan kesudian Yang Amat Berhormat Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi untuk melancarkan Laman Informasi Nasihat dan Khidmat Bank Negara Malaysia atau Bank Negara Malaysia LINK pada hari ini. Kami mengambil kesempatan dari kehadiran Yang Amat Berhormat Dato' Seri di taklimat ekonomi di Bank Negara Malaysia pada pagi ini untuk merasmikan Bank Negara Malaysia LINK. Penubuhan Bank Negara Malaysia LINK merupakan komitmen Bank Negara Malaysia untuk meningkatkan lagi perkhidmatan yang diberikan kepada orang ramai dan membantu meningkatkan akses pembiayaan kepada perusahaan kecil dan sederhana. Perasmian ini amat bermakna kerana Yang Amat Berhormat Perdana Menteri merupakan peneraju kepada peningkatan sistem penyampaian sektor awam. Yang Amat Berhormat Dato' Seri juga telah memainkan peranan penting dalam usaha meningkatkan potensi perusahaan kecil dan sederhana sebagai enjin pertumbuhan ekonomi negara kita. Ladies and Gentlemen, Bank Negara Malaysia has always been in direct contact with the public. The Central Bank receives walk-in members of the public seeking information in relation to our operations, policies and regulations as well as those who seek redress on financial issues. The SME Unit in Bank Negara Malaysia also has direct contact with the SMEs relating to issues of access to financing. The establishment of Bank Negara Malaysia LINK is to allow the interface with members of the public as well as the SMEs to be centralised and conducted in a more efficient and effective manner. The premises of the Bank Negara Malaysia LINK was previously the Kuala Lumpur branch of Bank Negara Malaysia.
The uncertainty instead concerns how much and how quickly it will fall and whether this will be sufficient. The Swedish economy must not end up in a situation where inflation becomes entrenched above the target of 2 per cent. The danger of inflation becoming entrenched at a high level Let me elaborate on why this is so important, starting with an illustrative example from when I visited companies last month. One person I spoke to noted that there had been a clear shift in negotiations with other companies about future prices and deliveries. A few years ago, inflation was not discussed in these negotiations. But now it is, and this makes it difficult to enter into long-term business relationships, which in turn has a negative impact on economic developments. This highlights the problem that high inflation becomes a factor that makes financial decisions more difficult for companies and households. And this contributes to the entrenchment of high inflation. We must return to low and stable inflation because this is a long-term base for good economic development. In addition, we will then be able to have real wage increases again. Firms set their prices according to, for instance, the costs they incur, the behaviour of their competitors and expectations of future price and cost increases. When inflation is  4/10  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  high and cost increases are large, firms are more eager to raise their prices often and to pass on the increased costs to customers.

*** Speaking hard truths is part of how central banks can reinforce the foundations of more inclusive growth. The paradox is that one of our jobs is to reduce uncertainty by identifying risks. This requires coming straight with the public as the Bank of England did around the EU referendum. And it requires being clear about what we cannot do. Long-run prosperity is not in the gift of central bankers. It depends on a much wider set of initiatives of our elected representatives, and ultimately, on the actions of the private sector. (b) Monetary Policy, Distribution and Equity The second way central banks can promote inclusive growth is as part of a balanced mix of monetary, fiscal and structural policies. Globally, this balance has been absent since the crisis, with disproportionate weight falling on monetary policy. What has that meant for growth and inequality? Before answering, it is important to recognise two facts. First, by law, monetary policy must target the national rate of consumer price inflation, while taking into account as a secondary consideration its impact on other important macroeconomic variables, such as growth, employment and financial stability. Monetary policy cannot target a particular region, industry or segment of the population. Second, all monetary policy has distributional effects, but it is rightly the role of elected governments to take measures to offset them if they so choose. In that context, has monetary policy worsened income distributions, made savers poorer, inflated asset prices, or exacerbated wealth inequalities?