samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
There’s always room for improvement and, at the ECB, we have called on Heads of State to strengthen governance procedures further, for instance by making sanctions more automatic in cases of non-compliance so as to prevent governments succumbing to the temptation of being excessively lax. This was seen in 2005 when the core countries failed to meet their deficit commitments and the Commission and the European Council agreed to change the rules so as not to sanction these countries. But the lesson whereby maintaining a monetary union is only possible if divergences remain within a moderate range must also be taken into  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  account by the national governments of each of the euro Member States, because the policies that may prevent the emergence of these imbalances or help to correct them are, for the most part, the responsibility of national governments. Many tasks lie ahead for all the euro area countries in contributing to reducing divergences. But it is our duty to pay more attention to what Spain should do. Our country reacted a year back when the sovereign debt crisis broke, and it showed resolve in adopting far-reaching measures to correct our economy’s imbalances without resorting to aid from its fellow members. It was able to do so, firstly, because its divergences were not overall as great as those of the countries that have had to apply for external financial assistance.

Thomas Jordan: Funding mortgages – securitisation and pfandbriefe in the light of the financial crisis Summary of a speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the annual general meeting of the Pfandbriefbank Schweizerischer Hypothekarinstitute, Zofingen, 15 May 2008. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The funding of mortgages is the focal point in discussions on the causes of the international financial crisis. The massive credit expansion in the US, particularly in the area of sub-prime mortgages, reinforced and prolongued the US real estate bubble. From mid-2007, the value of financial products backed by sub-prime mortgages declined substantially, leading to heavy losses on the part of banks and investors. The problems encountered with these financial products gave rise to discussions on the future of mortgage funding. The danger of such discussions is that the problems inherent in different instruments could be confused and their economic benefits overlooked. Three different refinancing instruments can be differentiated: pfandbriefe, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and structured securitized products. Common to all three is that they make it possible to refinance mortgages, and ease the process. However, they differ with respect to risk transfer. While the credit risk remains with the bank when refinancing via pfandbriefe, it is passed on to the investor in the case of MBSs and structured securitized products.
And these are all important elements in achieving our objectives. 3. And talking about objectives, this is definitely something worth reiterating and reinforcing at the start of this conference. This is because there’s always a danger, when we’re up to our neck in discussions around compliance, policy developments and technology, so much so that we may tend to forget what AML is all about basically. So let’s be clear about this upfront. ML and TF are crimes. And they facilitate other crimes - fraud, tax evasion, trafficking in drugs and people, and of course, terrorism. These crimes have economic and social effects that are far-reaching and often very nasty ones. They also generate financial flows – in fact significant financial flows - that divert resources away from economically and socially-productive uses. But more importantly, people get hurt. Victims, who are often from the more vulnerable segments in our societies, have their life savings stolen by fraudsters, our youth are damaged by drugs, or, in the case of terrorism, we see terrible acts of violence which kill and injure indiscriminately. Of course, investigating and prosecuting these crimes is the job of law enforcement agencies. But financial institutions do have a key role to play in helping to stop bad people doing bad things, and getting away with the proceeds from doing such bad things. This is the BASIC OBJECTIVE that one should remember next time when you are working on the details of CDD policy or calibrating the settings on your transaction monitoring and sanctions screening systems.

What seems to be the inevitable consequences of a solely GDP-driven growth strategy include problems of water shortages, which we now see repeatedly on a yearly basis. More worryingly, this trend seems to be intensifying each year as the demand for water continues to rise and is projected to double within twenty years (with current rates of population and economic growth). These coming water shortages have begun to take effect on manufacturing industries; but the more worrying impact has been on villages and communities with limited ability to reserve water. At the same time, opposite, extreme events have also occurred, such as destructive seasonal floods. Recently, bouts of intermittent drought and flood have both caused much destruction. In addition, the expansion of large cities and construction which has interfered with natural drainage routes, such as in the case of Had Yai or the natural water drainage on the Eastern side of Bangkok, are good examples of economic development which have intensified the problem of flooding. The tourism industry is another sector that has seen remarkable growth and has helped sustain high rates of GDP growth. But in the past, such tourism growth has been to no small degree at the expense of our natural environment and destruction of our natural resources. In some places, the environment and natural ecosystem have been put off-balance. Natural scenery which has been part of our national identity and drawn tourists to our country has been diminished, or in some cases ruined.
And lastly, by mobilising our financial resources: Europe has the largest pool of private savings in the world, with more than EUR 300 billion of excess savings invested outside the region each year, but our venture capital market, and more broadly our equity financing market, are underdeveloped compared with the United States. In the financial sector, the bigtechs have the potential to cause a genuine “Big Bang”: they have a strong brand image, a global client base and privileged access to new technologies. Of course, financial regulation needs to remain neutral vis-à-vis technology: the principle of “same activity, same rules” needs to be applied to maintain a level playing field for all players. But we need to increase international cooperation in four key areas of the regulation of digital finance: (i) cyber-security; (ii) data protection; (iii) preserving competition in the face of the risk of ultra-dominant networks and private monopolies; and (iv) fair cross-border taxation. Facebook’s Libra is a prime example of a case where cooperation is imperative. The G7 under the French presidency underlined the challenge this poses for sovereignty, and wants to address some “serious regulatory and systemic concerns” vi before such projects can be implemented. II. Boldly seizing the opportunity of a social, environmental and multilateral model. I now come to my provocation, or rather what should be our boldness. To this uncertain, troubled, disruptive, and uncooperative world, does Europe have nothing to offer?

» Issue Brief 2019-3 – March 2019 xvii Philippe Aghion, Gilbert Cette, Elie Cohen, Changer de modèle, Odile Jacob, 2014 xviii OECD (2016), PISA 2015. xix OECD xx OECD (2016), PISA 2015: on average, the PISA 2015 sample covers 90% of the national population of 15-yearolds in Europe/EU/euro area. For the OECD, this coverage rate is an approximate measure of enrolment rates in grade 7 or higher. xxi OECD (2018, 2016) Education at a Glance. xxii OECD (2018), Equity in Education: Breaking Down Barriers to Social Mobility, PISA, OECD Publishing, Paris. Performances measured in science xxiii Column in Les Echos, 20 April 2018 xxiv Hans Jonas (1991), The Imperative of Responsibility: In Search of Ethics for the Technological Age xxv Mario Draghi (2019) Sovereignty in a globalised world, Speech at the University of Bologna, 22 February xxvi Simone Veil, President of the European Parliament, 1979
Monetary policy should then counteract falling inflation particularly strongly if there is a risk that the policy rate will otherwise reach its lower bound.17 But the danger of deflation should not be exaggerated The low inflation in Sweden and the euro area has recently led to much discussion on the risks of deflation, that is, a general fall in price levels.18 Although I am worried that Swedish inflation has been too low for several years, I believe that the debate on deflation is sometimes too foreboding and that it often focuses on the wrong risks. To begin with, I do not see a lengthy period with falling prices as a likely scenario for Sweden. Growth is relatively strong, which should contribute to a rise in prices. Moreover, we have the scope to counteract falling prices with more expansionary monetary policy. The repo rate can be cut by at least 50 basis points before the lower bound is reached. If this were not enough, we could draw up other monetary policy measures that would contribute to a rise in inflation. Moreover, nothing dramatic will happen merely because inflation falls below zero and is weakly negative rather than weakly positive. The problems of low inflation that I have listed above gradually increase when inflation is lower and this will of course continue to apply when inflation is negative.

The monetary policy strategy has most likely contributed to inflation being lower than it would otherwise have been. Another important explanation for the low inflation is the weak international economic development. Sweden is a small open economy that is affected by international developments. The prices of the goods Swedish companies import are affected partly by global market prices of traded goods and services and partly by the exchange rate.6  6  4  The Riksbank’s method of measuring global market prices of traded goods and services involves weighing together developments in prices of exports in countries that are important for Swedish imports. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Global market prices appear to follow international economic developments relatively well. Like global GDP, prices of traded goods and services fell in connection with the financial crisis in 2008. When the international recovery began in 2010, these prices also began to rise. However, in recent years, global economic activity has slowed down again and at the same time the rate of increase in global market prices of traded goods and services has fallen. Over the past year, these prices have remained in principle unchanged. The prices Swedish companies pay in SEK for imports are also affected by the krona exchange rate. The krona weakened substantially against other currencies in connection with the financial crisis, which meant that import prices for consumer goods in the producer channel actually increased quite substantially when measured in Swedish krona, despite the fall in international prices.
To address current structural and cyclical challenges we need to rely on the analysis and advice of well-trained economists whether they are in the academia, in the public administration, central banks or the private sector. This is why it is so important to have academic institutions like CEMFI, that produce groundbreaking research and invest heavily in boosting the single most important determinant of economic growth: human capital. Students of the class of 2022, what you take from here – your knowledge and the tools needed to analyse and understand reality – is the accumulated capital stemming from what is probably the most important investment you will make in your whole life. You have invested your time and effort. And the yield on this investment will be a wide array of opportunities. But, above all, this human capital you now possess is something that nobody can take away from you. It will accompany you everywhere you go and you can apply it in every endeavour you may undertake. Besides the Master and PhD programmes, organised in collaboration with the Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo, the CEMFI provides other valuable services, such as a summer school that brings leading academics to teach courses in relevant areas to participants – among them a large number of central bankers – and a highly valued summer internship programme for top undergraduate students. And it also collaborates with the Banco de España in various research activities, including the organisation of workshops and international conferences.

Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Insights from the financial market in 2015, expectation and direction going forward Opening speech by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Annual Dinner of Persatuan Pasaran Kewangan Malaysia (PPKM), Kuala Lumpur, 13 November 2015. *  *  *  This annual dinner is an important event for it presents an opportunity for us and the market to reflect upon all the challenges in the financial market, and draw lessons as we move into the new operating year. The year 2015 has been a very interesting year for all of us here, industry players and regulators alike. During the year, we witnessed significant capital outflows as markets responded to the global economic developments. In particular, every commentary or data release hinting at policy normalization in the US was met with gyrations in financial markets. Emerging currencies, felt the brunt of such volatility, especially commodity exporting countries given the significant decline in commodity and energy prices and moderation in growth for the China’s economy. For Malaysia, we saw ringgit weakened as much as 18%, while in the bond market, we saw relative stability even though yields went up by 30 to 50 bps given by the negative sentiment in the domestic and global markets. Insights from the financial market in 2015 In the midst of all the global economic uncertainty and financial market volatility, I would like to highlight some observations and comments.
It has probably not been since the 1970s that we find such widespread reports of purely physical production constraints, for example now in the form of shortages of rigs and other equipment in the petroleum industry or shortages of plank, concrete and insulation in the construction industry. 2  BIS Review 28/2007  Unemployment has fallen markedly over the past year. The pace of decline and the level of unemployment are reminiscent of two earlier cyclical peaks, one in the mid-1980s and the one that began at the end of the 1990s and continued into the present decade. Both booms culminated in sharply accelerating cost and wage inflation. Supply-side shocks to the Norwegian economy The combination of strong growth, high capacity utilisation and low inflation is a reflection of favourable global developments and a number of positive supply-side shocks to the Norwegian economy. The global expansion of recent years has resulted in strong growth in Norwegian export industries. Employment has increased and unemployment has declined. The favourable labour market has boosted household optimism and supported private consumption. Strong demand growth and solid profitability have also paved the way for growth in business fixed investment in Norway. So far, the weakening of the US housing market has not had pronounced spill over effects. Growth in China and India is strong and the euro area is experiencing a broad-based upturn. Global growth is probably less dependent on demand for goods and services in the US than was the case earlier.

This applies both to companies competing on international markets and those supplying goods and services to the domestic market. In comparison with other countries, it is particularly productivity gains in banks and other service sectors that stand out. Examples are automated processes and swifter payments in the financial industry and improved inventory and management systems in commerce and transport. In sum, these positive supply side shocks have increased the growth capacity of the Norwegian economy, and have played their part in keeping inflation at a low level. Monetary policy assessments  Monetary policy influences the economy with a lag. Norges Bank sets the interest rate with a view to stabilising inflation close to the target in the medium term. The interest rate path should provide a reasonable balance between the path for inflation and the path for capacity utilisation. When we reduced the interest rate in 2003, demand and output rapidly picked up. However, it took a long time for employment to rise and the next phase from a pick-up in employment to a fall in unemployment was also long. But now the upturn has entered into a mature phase. The enterprises in our regional network report that capacity constraints are now limiting further growth. Unemployment has fallen markedly over the past year. Wage growth appears to be rising, but so far only gradually. Prices for many inputs and services and building materials are rising markedly. Consumer price inflation is also expected to pick up further ahead. Thus, interest rates are rising.
2  BIS Review 86/2005  Graph 2: Interest rate risks by bank groups (reduction in net present value as a percentage of equity following an interest rate shock of +100 basis points) Source: SNB  Conclusion: Increased efficiency without higher risks The slight narrowing of interest rate margins supports the assumption of increasingly fierce competition in the mortgage market. From the viewpoint both of consumers and of economic efficiency, this would be a welcome development. However, in the banking business there is always a danger that fiercer competition might encourage excessive risk taking by the banks. A bank can outperform its competitors by offering more favourable conditions while at the same time accepting poorer risk cover. However, as already mentioned, our aggregated analysis suggests that caution has not waned. Banks’ gross margins are declining slightly because their cost savings and improvements in efficiency are being passed on to customers. The capacity to absorb risks is not compromised by granting customers better conditions. Currently, the positive aspects of healthy competition are taking hold without apparently having any negative side effects. The SNB will nevertheless keep a close watch on trends in the real estate market. In particular, we will monitor interest rate risks, which have already reached a high level. With an appropriate normalisation of money market rates, the SNB contributes to limiting the danger of an abrupt rise in interest rates. In the current environment of historically low rates, however, there is no guarantee that the future trend in interest rates will be moderate.

But I judged that removing some of the monetary stimulus was warranted. I would like to tell you that this judgement was driven by “nice” reasons. That I was confident that the recovery would continue apace. That the very low level of Bank rate reached at the depth of the recession was no longer needed. That we were in a position in which monetary policy could begin a gradual process of normalisation. But I’m afraid these nice reasons were not the factors driving my decision. In particular, I’m not at all confident about the strength of the recovery. My central view – similar to that in the February Inflation Report – is that growth is likely to be close to its average historical rate over the next few years. But that is a pretty disappointing outlook given the depth of the  Mumtaz (2007)) while others have argued this was due to better monetary policy (Batini and Nelson (2005), Nelson and Nikolov (2004)). BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  recession from which we are recovering. And there is considerable scope for growth to surprise to the downside, particularly if households retrench further. Rather, my vote to raise rates was driven by a concern that – despite a relatively weak outlook for growth – the risks to the inflation target in the medium-term were to the upside.
William C Dudley: The US economic outlook and implications for monetary policy Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the People’s Bank of China-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint Symposium, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 29 February 2016. *  *  *  Thank you, Deputy Governor Zhu, for the opportunity to speak at this inaugural People’s Bank of China and Federal Reserve Bank of New York 2016 Joint Symposium. It is a wonderful occasion for our two central banks to meet and share ideas on important global macroeconomic and monetary policy issues. It is especially satisfying to me to be here in Hangzhou to see the result of my discussion last February with Governor Zhou about this kind of policy and research exchange. I thank you and the staff of The People’s Bank of China for developing this idea into such an ambitious work agenda, and for assembling such a distinguished group of contributors and participants for this symposium. We at the New York Fed look forward to future collaborative efforts to strengthen the relationship between our two institutions, especially given the key roles that China and the United States play in the global economy. By working together I believe we can achieve better outcomes for our countries and for the global economy.

This transition also involves a downshift in China’s trend growth rate, which is inevitable given the level of economic development in China and the shrinking margin of underutilized labor market resources. Economic transitions are always difficult to manage, and invariably present policymakers with unexpected challenges. It is not surprising, then, that market participants are focused on the risk that the downshift in Chinese growth could prove to be more pronounced than anticipated. I want to be clear. The rebalancing process now underway in China is both necessary and appropriate, and will unfold over a period of years. How to pragmatically strike the best balance between progress on long-term reform and support for short-term growth is, of course, a matter for policymakers in China. You can be sure that you will have the backing of the official international community as you oversee this important transformation. Finally, the slowdown in Chinese and broader EME growth has been a key factor behind the sharp drop in global commodity prices since mid-2014. The income streams accruing to commodity export countries have been adversely impacted, requiring sometimes painful downward adjustments in investment and economic activity in these countries. Here, too, it may take time for markets to find a new equilibrium, as investment projects that were based on the price structure prevailing a few years ago are still coming online. In most cases, EMEs appear to have the tools and the resources to help manage their way through the current period of difficulties.