samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The depreciation of the local currencies is creating additional inflationary pressures while fiscal operations have not been spared as the tax revenue from export earnings has been adversely affected. Furthermore, the effects have quickly extended to the real economy, with serious consequences on jobs. In particular, manufacturing has been adversely affected because of its support to the primary industries on the continent. As extractive industries on the continent face depressed commodity prices, the demand for manufactured goods will continue to decline. This is expected to negatively affect Africa’s manufacturing sector. The decline in the demand for finished goods in the advanced economies is also adversely affecting exports of our manufactured goods and thereby slowing down the manufacturing sector on our continent. Tourism is also adversely affected as many foreign tourists postpone or reschedule their visits to our continent as they grapple with severe economic conditions in their home countries. Chairperson, an additional adverse effect of the global financial crisis on our economies has been on direct foreign investment s as many projects have either been suspended or cancelled. This has been due to a failure by many investors to raise funds as a result of unfavourable conditions in international financial markets. Other investors are pulling out their interests from Africa in a bid to save money and improve their liquidity for working capital purposes back home where liquidity has been a serious issue.

It is also important that we incorporate policy issues arising from this seminar in our domestic policy processes and thereby enrich such processes by taking into consideration regional perspectives. 2  BIS Review 44/2009  The challenge going forward is how to maintain and sustain the economic gains and macroeconomic stability in our countries. There is need to encourage diversification and enhance competitiveness by increasing expenditure on infrastructure and social services. We need to continue to encourage investment in our economies that will lead to a diversified export base and a greater local value addition. For monetary authorities, there is need to continue to closely monitor global developments and always stand ready to take appropriate measures in the local financial markets to ensure that confidence in the financial systems is maintained and any systemic risk is avoided. Such actions will facilitate maintenance of the macroeconomic gains achieved thus far. This is a necessary ingredient for economic growth and poverty alleviation, even against the unfolding adverse effects of the global financial crisis. Ladies and Gentlemen, let me end by urging all of us present here today to deliberate on issues that will help us face the future in a much more confident way. Let us use this unique opportunity to have a discourse on how to protect and sustain the recent achievements of higher income levels and reduced poverty. African countries need to find ways and means of coming up with a response framework to reverse the effects of the crisis.
However, last spring Norges Bank also reviewed the merits of a change in anchor currencies. Norges Bank found the potential benefits of changing the exchange rate target to a trade-weighted basket to be relatively marginal and fairly uncertain, and recommended that the Government refrain from modifying the Exchange Rate Regulation. In the Revised National Budget for 1998, the Government affirmed this view and decided that the Exchange Rate Regulation would continue to apply without any changes, with the euro replacing the ECU as the indicator of the krone’s value against European currencies. Thus, the consequences of the introduction of the euro for the orientation of Norwegian monetary policy might not appear particularly great at the outset. The launching of EMU nevertheless entails changes in the environment for our monetary policy, for the following reasons among others: First, the European Central Bank formulates its monetary policy with the aim of maintaining low inflation for the euro area as a whole. Euroland will be a more closed economy than the individual member countries used to be, and thus exchange-rate changes less important. This can result in larger exchange rate fluctuations between the major countries than in the past. If so, keeping the krone stable against the euro might become more challenging. Second, the launch of the euro will reinforce global financial integration and contribute to higher capital mobility, and the establishment of an efficient payment and settlement system in euros reduces the cost of moving capital.

Increased mobility of capital, both in and out of countries, including Norway, could follow. As I indicated earlier, we, like others, have experienced increasing difficulty in maintaining a stable exchange rate in a world of large, unrestricted capital flows. The relative calm within the euro area during the recent turmoil linked to the financial crises in Asia and Russia and later Brazil could be indicative of future differences between Europe’s “ins” and “outs”. Finland, despite its dependence on raw materials and relatively large exports to Russia, was less adversely affected than the other Nordic countries. For Norway, success in maintaining a stable exchange rate could become more challenging in the new environment. BIS Review 16/1999  –3–  Use of the euro in Norway. Euro and the Norwegian banking industry Use of the euro in Norway I would now like to comment on how, and to what extent, Norwegian economic agents might be expected to use the euro in the future. There are many indications that the euro will be used more extensively in trade between Norway and euro countries than the currencies of the 11 member states combined today. Over time the euro will most likely be used on an even wider scale. Obviously, the euro would increase in importance in the Norwegian market should Sweden, Denmark and the UK join EMU. The euro may also play a role – though probably limited – as a settlement currency between residents.
Policy is again assumed to follow a Taylor rule, with varying weights on output and inflation. Mark-up shocks have a material impact on output and especially inflation variability, even with monetary policy cushioning their effects. The variance of inflation is reduced by around a quarter, and variance of the output gap by around 10%, when mark-ups shocks are switched-off. The policy possibility frontier of 21  output/inflation variabilities is shifted outwards materially by the presence of mark-up shocks. The scope for monetary policy to cushion these shocks is relatively limited. Chart 15 plots the variability of interest rates alongside output variability, for the same set of policy rules. Mark-ups shocks affect interest rate variability relatively modestly. 22  And the variance of interest rates is reduced by only around 5% when  mark-up shocks are switched-off. This tells us that trade-off inducing shocks to mark-ups leave the (path and variability) of interest rates less affected than inflation. Clearly, this simulation places an upper bound on this shift as it effectively removes shocks to mark-ups. In practice, the evidence on how the variability of mark-ups may have evolved is mixed. On the one hand, macro evidence suggests a fall in the variability of both output and inflation in many countries recently, a finding that has been attributed by some to a lower incidence of mark-up shocks (for example, Smets and Wouters (2007) and Kapetanios et al (2017)).

1.2 = 20%) Mean (weighted by total sales) Median (weighted by total sales)  1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0  1987  1990  1993  1996  1999  2002  2005  2008  2011  2014  2017  Sources: Thomson Reuters Worldscope and Bank calculations  29  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  29  Chart 10: Skewness of UK-listed firms’ mark-up distribution by sector Mining and quarrying  Manufacturing  Transport and storage  Skewness coefficient 6  Skewness coefficient 5  5  4  Skewness coefficient 4  3 4  3 2  3 2 2  1 1  1  -1 1987  1993  1999  2005  2011  2017  0  0  0  -1 1987  1993  ICT  1999  2005  2011  2017  -1 1987  Construction  1993  1999  2005  2011  2017  Wholesale and retail  Skewness coefficient 5  Skewness coefficient 5  4  4  Skewness coefficient 7 6 5  3  3  2  2  1  1  4 3 2 1  1993  1999  2005  2011  2017  Accommodation  0  0  0 1987  1987  1993  1999  2005  2011  1987  2017  Arts, entertainment and recreation  Skewness coefficient 5  1993  1999  2005  2011  2017  Administrative and support services  Skewness coefficient 2.0  Skewness coefficient 6 5  4 1.5  4 3 1.0  3  2 2 0.5 1  1  0 1987  1993  1999  2005  2011  2017  0.0 1987  1993  1999  2005  2011  2017  0 1987  1993  1999  2005  2011  2017  Sources: Thomson Reuters Worldscope and Bank calculations.
By contrast, in some other member states in the euro area there have been explicit calculations about how much additional capital would need to be infused into banking systems in order to meet those requirements. This is testament to the very strong capital position of our banking system. Regarding steps to limit exposure by any of our banks to any sovereign holdings in the euro area, as part of the supervisory process of the Central Bank of Cyprus we demand that all of our banks have good risk management systems in place. Of course, we do not control the specific decisions on portfolio holdings of banks. Whenever we determine that there is undue concentration of risks then we demand that additional capital be held in order to account for these risks. This way we manage risks to the system. Q. Do you agree with an assessment recently made by Cypriot officials and the finance minister to be precise, that his hands are actually tied in terms of future ratings of the Republic if rating agencies continue to make a linkage between the economic fortunes of Greece and the economic fortunes of Cyprus, and do you think that this linkage is appropriate? In my view, all authorities must live up to their responsibilities. What we are experiencing in Cyprus over the past many months is a very unfortunate cycle of downgrades of the sovereign.

Our government has repeatedly over the past year stated that the current state of our pension system is, I quote, “a ticking time bomb which could destroy the Republic.” This is something that can be fixed by changing the parameters of the pension system going forward. Everybody recognises that these changes need to be made in order to ensure the sustainability of the system and the longer our country delays making these changes the more costly it will be to solve the problem. This is one example that is recognised. I do not think we have to look very far. In my view, it is not the most responsible policy not to defuse what has been recognised as a ticking time bomb. Q. How worried are you at the unfolding fiscal situation on the island and the inaction on the part of the authorities? I am indeed worried about our government’s delay in implementing the necessary fiscal consolidation measures because, as I mentioned earlier, any further delay raises the cost to the economy. The unemployment rate is already at historic highs. We do not help the economy generate additional growth and new jobs by not correcting the fiscal imbalances  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  that we face. The fiscal imbalances push up the cost of financing on businesses and discourage investment. I am quite worried about this. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Trichet: I would say that it is impossible in market economies to avoid fluctuations. We have to accept that we have ups and downs. What is an overwhelming duty is to eliminate, as completely as possible, all the in-built elements in global finance that are amplifying the booms and the busts. Such pro-cyclical elements are everywhere. They are in the behaviour of the various private entities themselves. We have to draw the appropriate lessons from that, including in terms of risk management. We have to reflect on accounting rules. Now we have to see exactly how accounting rules could best reflect the reality of the situation, and how they would avoid augmenting booms and busts as has been the case. We have to reflect in the Basel Committee on prudential rules for banks and also for insurance companies. As regards market rules in general they might have been, all taken into account, too geared towards short-termism and too pro-cyclical. All of these are the avenues that we see in front of us when we meet in the context of the Financial Stability Forum, the G20, the IFMC, G7, G8 or the G10 grouping of Central Bank Governors. I think we very much agree on the appropriate avenues. I used to sum them up by saying that we first have to improve transparency dramatically for financial instruments, for markets and for institutions.

You know, there are some key intermediate inputs that are produced in only three factories in the world. This is not reliable. We have this just-in-time system, with minimum inventories, which in case of a shock might make the full body of the real economy more immediately vulnerable. In the financial system we have eliminated a number of cushions and shock-absorbers that we had here and there. This morning, I was telling our staff, that this is as if we had been keen on eliminating a number of air bags from the [global finance] “car”. So now that we have an accident, we are surprised to see that we have a lot of scars. The scars of the current crisis on the global financial system are significant. All investment banks in New York have either been purchased, or gone under, or changed by their legal framework. That is saying something. A new concept of resilience for the market economy is of the essence. BIS Review 159/2008  7
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will take part in the FSB Steering Committee during the period 2013–2015 when Turkey will be chairing the FSB Regional Consultative Group for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). As part of the governance reform of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a New Constituency was established with the countries Turkey, Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Belarus and Kosovo. According to this agreement, Turkey will assume the Executive Director position for a two-year term between 2014–2016 and 2018–2020. At the G-20 meeting held in Los Cabos a number of emerging market economies including Turkey declared their intention to contribute to global financial stability by increasing the resources of the IMF. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey intends to contribute to IMF resources up to USD 5 billion, which will be counted as part of Turkey’s international reserves. The duties and responsibilities of central banks with regard to payment systems have to do with the development of the financial sector, which is the third main field. Efficient payment systems contribute to the deepening of financial markets by decreasing operation costs and settlement risks. Therefore, the active role assumed by central banks in the design, operation and oversight of payment systems becomes more crucial given the size of the global financial system. Hence, in line with the global trends in this field, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey cooperates with the Turkish financial system for the advancement of payment systems.

Speech  Embargo 5 April 2018, 6.00 pm  The financial markets in changing times Changes today and tomorrow: the digital future Money Market Event  Andréa M. Maechler Member of the Governing Board * Swiss National Bank Zurich, 5 April 2018 © Swiss National Bank, Zurich, 2018 (speech given in German)  *  The speaker would like to thank Nino Landerer, Andreas Wehrli, Carolin Reiss and Claudia Aebersold Szalay for their support in drafting this speech, and her thanks also go to Giuseppe D’Alelio, Rita Fleer, Adriel Jost, Sébastien Kraenzlin, Susanne Mühlemann, Nicolas Stoffels and SNB Language Services. Page 1/8  Ladies and Gentlemen In his speech, my colleague Dewet Moser has demonstrated how being open to innovations can pay off. However, he also underscores the point that it is entirely appropriate to carefully examine their purpose and the benefits they offer. I would now like to apply this scrutiny to the fintech innovations that are currently attracting a great deal of attention among the general public and in the financial industry. Bitcoin is one of the most talked-about topics at present, and the hype that has built up around cryptocurrencies in general is considerable. It is estimated that well over 1,000 of these currencies are in circulation today. If you search the internet for the word ‘bitcoin’ you will find more than 300 million entries. By contrast, the term ‘Swiss franc’ generates just over 30 million hits.
We also have an expenditure ceiling and a surplus target in the fiscal policy area, which are designed to prevent public finances being undermined or savings having to be made in inappropriate situations. Sweden has been one of the countries in the front line, both in reforming the framework of monetary policy and that of fiscal policy. Many other countries have later made changes similar to the ones we made. It is also worth noting that  4  BIS Review 149/2010  the most recent crisis, and the public finance problems it has entailed, have triggered a new wave of interest in fiscal policy regulation. 3 The stable frameworks for monetary policy and fiscal policy have in many ways functioned as “shock absorbers” in this crisis. Unlike during the previous crisis, economic agents have been able to assume that inflation will be fairly stable and that public finances will remain under control. This creates a security which I believe is particularly valuable during periods like this, when there is considerable uncertainty in general around the world. I imagine, for instance, that households in countries with weak public finances are much more concerned about the future. …and make it easier to stimulate the economy The stable frameworks have also made it easier to stimulate the economy strongly during the crisis without anyone questioning the credibility of the inflation target or the sustainability of our public finances.

But there are a number of circumstances that almost certainly contributed, although there is still debate on their relative significance. Poorly adjusted regulations and insufficient oversight One fact that definitely did play a role is that the regulations and supervision did not function satisfactorily. One of the problems was that there was too much focus on the situation of individual agents and too little focus on the financial system as a whole – too much micro and too little macro, if you like. Moreover, the supervision lacked the necessary international oversight as it was largely conducted on a domestic basis by each individual country. There were also loopholes in the regulations that, for instance, meant that some institutions and markets were not covered and could expand without the authorities having any real oversight. Things were not made easier by the fact that there was also great ingenuity in the financial markets that resulted in new financial instruments, where no one properly understood the risks. So all in all, one can say that the deficiencies in regulation and supervision meant that the brakes did not catch when events got out of control and the risks became too great. A North Atlantic property bubble… One of the main reasons behind the financial crisis is sometimes said to be that a property bubble arose in the United States, which then burst and spread extensively. This is largely true, although a simplification.
These include critical thinking and analysis, problem-solving, and skills in self-management such as active learning, resilience, stress tolerance and flexibility. For any organisation to grow and sustain change, strong, wellrounded leadership is critical. Not all these aspects can be gained through formal learning alone. It has to be reinforced through robust on-the-job mentoring and organisational-wide coaching culture. Finally, culture is at the heart of any organisation’s ability to transform and remain relevant. Ron Kaufman once said that when you “convince people, you will win their minds. Inspire people and you will win their hearts”. For organisations seeking to transform and become more adaptive and innovative, culture change is often the most challenging part of the journey. Any attempt to drive transformation is unlikely to succeed if there is resistance to the call for action. 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  As an organisation, Bank Negara Malaysia has also had to assess and reflect on how we work, and consider better ways to instil the desired norms and corporate culture. What we have consciously nurtured over time has been a strong collaborative culture. What we want to keep getting better at is to be open to experimenting more, learning from mistakes quicker, and deepening our coaching and feedback culture. Our policy mandates are stress-tested internally by a work culture where colleagues are encouraged to speak up and challenge one another so that we reduce blind spots.

For example, hybrid working arrangements have become the norm, while the gig workforce has risen sharply in prominence. As a nation, our aspiration to become a high-value economy would necessitate Malaysia to reduce its reliance on a low-cost, labour-intensive economic model- one that discourages productivity enhancements, depresses wages, and perpetuates the creation of low-skilled jobs. This would require two critical factors: First, is the economy and firms that create high skilled jobs. In Bank Negara Malaysia’s recent publication, it is argued that for this to happen, we need to have a conducive ecosystem to attract high quality investments that will contribute towards increasing our economic complexity and thus generate high-value, high-paying jobs. Second, we must also be in a position to provide sufficient number of skilled workers and talents to meet the need of the industries and the economy. In line with our focus today on learning and development, let me spend a bit of time on the second factor, that is on talent development. Joseph E. Stiglitz, the Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences once said, “Development is about transforming lives of people, not just transforming economies”. To thrive in the new economy, policy strategies must tilt towards understanding the ‘future of work’ and future proofing the workforce. The World Economic Forum reports that by 2030 wide-scale investments in upskilling can boost global GDP by USD 6.5 trillion and lead to the net creation of 5.3 million new jobs globally.