samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Philipp Hildebrand: Global economic prospects and key challenges for monetary policy Summary of a speech by Mr Philipp Hildebrand, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Money Market Event, Zurich, 23 March 2006. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch)  *  *  *  Summary Current economic developments are basically in line with the SNB’s expectations. Global economic activity is robust and the outlook is bright. The SNB expects broad-based growth of over 2% for 2006 and a moderate rate of inflation of approximately 1%. In addition to the usual economic risks, monetary policy today is faced with three key challenges. First, the effects of globalisation on inflation must be anticipated. Second, the way in which the interaction between globalisation and an ample supply of liquidity affects the price development of several assets needs to be analysed. The SNB's monetary policy concept enables it to take a long-term view and to recognise possible distortions early on. Third, identifying the neutral interest rate has become more difficult in today's environment. Many factors tend to support a lower neutral interest rate, while others would support a higher neutral rate. Against this background, the SNB will continue the gradual normalisation of its monetary policy. The scale and timing of this normalisation process will depend on further economic developments. Owing to a favourable inflation trend and well-anchored inflation expectations, we are in a position to cautiously approach a neutral interest rate level.

Jean-Claude Trichet: Macro-prudential oversight and the future European Systemic Risk Board Keynote address by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the European Banking Congress, Frankfurt am Main, 19 November 2010. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a pleasure for me to participate in the European Banking Congress. We are meeting at a very important time for Europe’s financial system, of which so many senior representatives are assembled here. This is also a very important time for the European economy and for the governance of the euro area. Looking at the current situation, we have to be very clear as to what the issues are and where the solutions lie. As its name suggests, Economic and Monetary Union has two attributes: one is “Economic” and one is “Monetary.” The “Monetary” attribute refers to the ECB, its mandate and its independence. I will come to this in a moment. The “Economic” attribute comprises the fiscal regime enshrined in the Stability and Growth Pact; the national frameworks of economic policy; and the system of mutual surveillance. The developments we are currently witnessing in Europe’s economy have to do with its “Economic” functions. They have essentially three origins: unsound fiscal policies in a number of member states; inappropriate macroeconomic policies in a number of member states; and overall an inadequate system of surveillance by all member states. This is the triangle that provides the perimeter of the current situation.
References International Monetary Fund, "The Managing Director’s Report on Implementing the Fund’s MediumTerm Strategy", April 2006, Washington DC, available at http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2006/040506.pdf Mervyn King, "Reform of the International Monetary Fund", speech at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations in New Delhi, India, February 2006, available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2006/speech267.pdf Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF, "An Evaluation of the IMF's Multilateral Surveillance", February 2006, Washington DC, available at http://www.imf.org/external/np/ieo/2006/ms/eng/pdf/report.pdf International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook”, September 2006 and others, available at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2006/02/index.htm  8  BIS Review 103/2006

At the same time, this change means that both borrowers and lenders become more sensitive to developments in house prices. All other things being equal, higher loan-to-value ratios should increase the risk of loan losses for the banks. However, while the banks are allowing a higher loan-to-value ratio, they appear to have compensated for this in recent years by tightening some of the requirements for granting loans. It has also become increasingly common that mortgage institutions offer interest-only loans. This also increases the borrowers’ and lenders’ sensitivity to developments in house prices. The fact that households are choosing not to amortize their loans to the same extent may be related to the rising house prices. House-owners have been able to see their loan-to-value ratio fall even without amortization payments. Amortization is also a form of saving, but it is not self-evident that it is the best thing for a household to have its entire savings in its own housing. If they choose not to amortize the loan, they may perhaps have some other form of saving that can be used if their incomes unexpectedly decline or costs increase. To summarise, I do not see any serious risks, from a stability perspective, in households’ growing indebtedness and in rising property prices – not at present. However, the current developments cannot continue indefinitely.
One day, when he was returning from the river after a fishing expedition, a beggar, sitting by the side of the road, was reported to have asked him for a fish. “I’ll not give you a fish. Instead, I’ll tell you how you could catch a fish” Confucius is reported to have told the beggar. The moral of the story was that if the beggar was given a fish, he would get used to the free fish and beg for it everyday. Then, it would have been a severe burden on Confucius. So, he advised the beggar to depend on himself rather than begging from others. The experience in poverty alleviation throughout the globe has shown that safety nets in the form of outright grants do not work in the long run. Hence, the safety nets that were introduced earlier were converted to “safety ropes”. Those safety ropes were expected to provide a means for the poor to hang onto and then climb upward with the support given to them. Thus came the era of microfinance which indeed was a safety rope through which the poor could cross the poverty line. Such microfinance would help them to attain the goal of getting out of poverty, provided certain conditions are met. The training program conducted by CAB teaches us these conditions which are needed for the sustenance of microfinance schemes. The experience throughout the world tells us that microfinance alone is not sufficient to eliminate poverty. This is because microfinance satisfies only the funding requirements of micro-enterprises.

The consequence is that it imposes an additional burden on the helper. As a result, neither the helper nor the helped would be able to get out of the vicious circle in which the both parties would get trapped. The moral hazard behavior by people who get free goods is not a new phenomenon. It had been known for many centuries. The Buddha has preached in one of the discourses titled Chakka Vatti Seehanaada Sutta how the king of a country was duped by the people who were given free capital to commence self-employment projects. According to this Sutta, the people of a certain country had resorted, in large numbers, to theft and robbery. The king had consulted his wise advisors to find how to eliminate it. The advice given was that people had resorted to theft and robbery, because they had  BIS Review 48/2007  1  no a way of earning a livelihood. Hence, to enable them to start self-employment projects, the king opened his treasury and allowed them to take whatever the money they needed for use as capital. After some time, the people realized that if they resorted to more theft and robbery, they could get more money from the king. As a result, instead of such felonies declining, they indeed started to rise in the kingdom. A similar example has been attributed to the Chinese philosopher, Confucius, who lived in the 5th century BC.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  assessments of the level of resource utilisation can lead to different views of how monetary policy ought to be conducted. It is therefore essential that more analyses are conducted to better understand what it is that determines the development of output and potential GDP in conjunction with financial crises and deep recessions. One important factor behind the development of potential GDP seems to be total factor productivity (TFP). This is particularly troublesome as TFP itself is often counted as an unexplained residual. One possible way forward could be to combine the production function approach with economic short-term statistics to analyse how TFP behaves in normal cyclical fluctuations and in deep recessions. The almost unique opportunities for Sweden to conduct analyses based on micro data for individuals and companies should be a major asset in this regard. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figures and tables 1. Actual and trend GDP Logarithmed levels 6.5  6.5 GDP  6.0  6.0  Trend  5.5  5.5  5.0  5.0  4.5  4.5 50  55  60  65  70  75  80  85  90  95  00  05  10  Note. HP trend derived solely from annual data 1950–2010. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  2.

One of the most infamous is the 1998 study based on just 12 children published in the Lancet claiming there was a link between the MMR vaccine and autism. Uptake of the MMR vaccine subsequently dropped to under 80% nationally, and mumps reached epidemic levels in Britain in 2005. It later transpired that the lead author of the article had failed to disclose his role as a paid adviser in a lawsuit claiming MMR had harmed children. He was struck off, later studies have failed to establish a credible link between vaccines and autism, and the Lancet has fully retracted the article. if policymakers had systematically overambitious goals for economic activity they would succeed only in generating extra inflation. A seminal paper by Rogoff (1985) first suggested that delegating monetary policy to an independent central bank can overcome the inflation bias problem, delivering lower inflation and output variability. 9 See Cukierman, Webb and Neyapti (See “Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes”, The World Bank Economic Review, 1992) and Crowe and Meade (See “The Evolution of Central Bank Governance around the World”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2007). I define central banks with an index score greater than 0.4 on the Cukierman, Webb and Neyapti (1992) index as having a ‘moderate’ degree of independence.
We of course are acutely aware of the importance of promoting market liquidity, especially in the early stages of our development of the CNH market. It was against this background that the HKMA has all along taken a proactive approach in seeking to strengthen the liquidity of the CNH market in Hong Kong. In June 2012, the HKMA launched a Repo facility to provide one-week funds for banks in Hong Kong as a backstop to facilitate banks’ liquidity management. However, the facility was for T+2 settlement and did not fully address the needs of the banks. In order to assist bank treasurers to better manage their liquidity, the HKMA shortened the settlement of the repo to T+1 in January 2013 and again to T+0 in July 2013. 9. Today, I am pleased to announce that, in preparation for the imminent launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the HKMA will implement two additional  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  measures as backstop facility to assist banks in Hong Kong in managing their RMB liquidity:  10. (a)  In addition to what the BoC HK, as the RMB Clearing Bank, is providing to the Participating Banks through intraday overdraft, the HKMA will provide an intraday Repo facility of up to RMB10 bn to banks in Hong Kong. The HKMA will charge a fee, based on the actual time used during the day, for the use of the facility.

Empathy is deeply rooted in the fundamental values of Shariah, such as Ihsan, fairness and mutuality. At its core, Islamic finance seeks to prevent harm and promote the attainment of benefits to improve lives and livelihood. This includes alleviating hardships experienced by customers through funding, investment and protection solutions as well as making improvements in how customers experience finance. In this highly digitalised era, stakeholders are becoming better at discerning the contribution of financial sector to the economy and society. 'Empathy' will ensure that financial institutions are closely attuned to the non-homogenous needs of different segments of society and the economy, and understand how to service them effectively. Particularly when working with the vulnerable segments, financial institutions must consider how consumers can be empowered to make better decisions that improves their financial well-being and protect themselves against risks. As an example, the blended finance programme introduced by the Bank, iTEKAD, integrates mentoring and upskilling within the programme to help participants build knowledge and experience in managing finance. This helps improve sustainability of the participants' business as well as the programme itself. Conclusion In conclusion, I would like to share this quote from Erica Dhawan, "I thought I had to do it all, but in fact, I only had to do what truly mattered and made a difference". I trust that the deliberations from this programme will reinforce what is already crystal clear – that  2/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  is for financial sector to embrace sustainability and value-based finance.
Because banks have been identified as the primary focus of money launderers and provide an entry point for laundered money into the financial system, most efforts to combat this scourge are targeted towards banks. Under the money-laundering Act, banks have certain obligations, which are placed upon them by the law. These include: •  To keep identification record of its customers for a period of ten years. This is aimed at safeguarding the documentary evidence to prove that the financial institution has sufficient knowledge of its clients. •  To report to the Money Laundering Investigations Unit whenever there are reasonable grounds to believe that a money laundering offence has been or is about to be committed. •  To comply with any directives issued by the Bank of Zambia. •  To designate an officer in each branch or office as the money laundering officer. •  To provide training to staff on anti-money laundering techniques. In conclusion, Mr Chairman, I would like to state that the effects of money laundering are incomputable and unknown to many of us. The Prohibition and Prevention of Money Laundering Bill has laid a foundation and will serve to deter the use of the Zambian financial system as a site to launder dirty money. It has given each one of us a challenge. For the banking sector, the challenge is to ensure that their corporate governance structures and risk management systems are redesigned to take care of this growing threat.

The Governor of the Bank of Zambia is a member of the Anti-Money Laundering Authority, whose main functions are to provide policy directives to the Commissioner of the Drug Enforcement Commission and to advise the Minister of Home Affairs on measures that are required to prevent and detect money-laundering activities in Zambia. •  In order to minimise the likelihood of criminals or their organisations from taking control of or setting up their own banks, the Bank of Zambia as the licensing authority of banks and financial institutions, has put in place a rigorous licensing process, which ensures that only ‘fit and proper’ persons are allowed to own and manage financial institutions. •  Know Your Customer Directive. Even before the coming into effect of the Prohibition and Prevention of Money Laundering Act, the Bank of Zambia, inline with the Basle Committee’s guidelines issued the ‘Know Your Customer’ Directive in December 1998. The directive outlines the basic procedures that bank managements should put in place within their institutions to prevent criminal use of the banking system. It also places limitations on the amounts of foreign exchange that individuals can transact. Mr Chairman, the banking sector in Zambia has also not lagged behind in terms of coming up with an industry response to this scourge. The Bankers’ Association of Zambia (BAZ) issued the ‘Code of Banking Practice in Zambia’ in 2002, outlining the Association’s commitment to fighting money laundering and complying with the letter and spirit of money laundering in all parts of the world.
The most effective mechanism is the revaluation index, the application of which, in the current model, leads to below-inflation increases in existing pensions insofar as revenue and expenditure are not in equilibrium. Evidently, more favourable scenarios in demographic or employment terms allow the sustainability of the system to be achieved with fewer reductions in the replacement rate. But even in highly optimistic scenarios, the reduction needed in that rate to ensure the system’s sustainability would be considerable. What is the main conclusion to be drawn from this analysis? Since the challenge posed by the impact of demographic trends is to ensure the financial sustainability of the public pension system, even once full employment has been reached, there are, in fact, only two  4/6  options to achieve this: 1) to reduce the pension replacement rate, and/or 2) to broaden the sources of funding. Given the magnitude of the problem, it would seem reasonable to consider both options. 1) With respect to the measures to curb expenditure through the replacement rate, the desirability of a more balanced distribution between a) the adjustment arising from the reduction in the initial pension, and b) that operating via the indexation mechanisms, should be studied. The option to further push back the retirement age may also be considered, since it could be justified by people’s longer life expectancy, their joining the workforce later, the reduced physical demands of most jobs today, and people’s better health at more advanced ages.

14  The impact of central bank credibility on inflation expectations in the UK would over time have lowered the inflation expectations adjusted Phillips curve in much the same way, though by a very different mechanism, as a drop in the natural rate. Arguably we are only now discovering the impact at very low levels of unemployment of the Bank of England’s credibility as an inflation anchor. Change in pay norms  One way of looking at the Phillips curve relationship between pay and employment is that it incorporates not only inflation expectations but also some ‘norm’ for real pay increases – some ‘going rate’ for an expected increase in real disposable income. Some of this will reflect increasing productivity – as output per worker rises, so their real pay ought to rise. But this norm may be demanded regardless of tightness in the labour market and regardless of whether increases in real pay are justified by increases in productivity. 13  See for example Brainard (2017)  14  Since the 1970s several monetary frameworks have been in place with the goal to provide an anchor for the price level and credibility for the government’s commitment to low inflation. In the 1970s, targets for monetary aggregates were introduced, first for broad money and then for narrow money. With membership of the ERM in 1990, the exchange rate became the explicit target. Finally, following the departure of the ERM in 1992, an explicit inflation target was adopted. Operational independence was granted in 1997.
However, even after several rounds of discussions, the program has not got off the ground as yet. Recent initiatives taken by the Central Bank and the banking and financial sector As in India, banks and financial institutions in Sri Lanka, at the grass root levels, have been advised to engage in basic banking with “no frills”, or to entertain minimum balances and reduce charges where possible to enhance access to finance and financial inclusion. The recent efforts taken by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka as well as some banking institutions have enhanced access to finance and financial inclusion. They are: •  10% mandatory credit to agriculture by banking sector;  •  Agency banking through mobile phones: Permission has been granted to commercial banks to provide facilities using telecommunication services to appoint a number of agents to enable on the spot banking facilities such as depositing and  BIS Review 40/2008  7  withdrawing money and receiving remittances abroad through these agents located throughout the country; •  Upgrading of post offices to provide banking and financial services: The HSBC Bank has established links with post offices which are considered to be grass root financial institutions and providing access to finance in terms of drawing their pensions, monthly allowances and, where possible, remittances from abroad.

The economic tenor in California and the rest of America is weary, if not downright weak: Somos fuerte; los otros son flojos. Since the recent economic recession ended, Texas has been responsible for 48 percent of all the jobs created in America. And yet, the Hispanic population is not participating in our economic prosperity in proportion to its weight in the Texas census. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The unemployment rate among Latinos here is substantially higher than it is for non-Hispanic Texans. Hispanics earn 36 percent less in hourly wages than non-Hispanic whites; median household income of Latino-headed households in Texas is about 60 percent of median household income of non-Hispanic households. For the U.S. as a whole, Latino-headed households earn about 73 percent of non-Hispanic white household income. Pia Orrenius and our other economists are hard at work in deciphering what accounts for the differences between the economic status of Texas Hispanics and Latinos elsewhere in the U.S. Already, one factor is clear: Hispanic educational achievement in Texas is abysmal. In Texas, as anywhere else in the United States and in all capitalist societies, “you earn what you learn.” Every study known to man, and plain common sense, tell you that income is directly correlated to educational attainment. High school graduates earn significantly more than high school dropouts; a college degree results in greater lifetime earnings than a high school degree; the highest income groups are those with graduate degrees.