samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
There may be some early indications that such a shift has begun to occur with prices rising faster outside metropolitan areas. As of March this year, annual house price growth has been in the 13-14% range for the North of England and the 10-12% range for the Midlands, Wales and Scotland, with London the laggard at just under 4%. But even if it has begun, is far too early to say whether or not it will be sustained. Preferences expressed during the pandemic and lockdown may not be a good guide to post-pandemic behaviour. If it occurred, such a shift would reverse decades of movement in the other direction and might see closing of the gap between London and other high cost areas. It is not clear what impact a more buoyant housing market along these lines would have on prices, mortgage indebtedness distribution of housing wealth. Even if prices rise in newly popular locations and the volume of mortgage transactions increased, there could be offsetting effects. First-time buyers of properties outside high cost metropolitan areas who would otherwise have bought in those areas would take on less debt than they would otherwise have done. And existing owner-occupiers who moved from such areas to other areas in the UK might in fact reduce their debt in doing so. Supply may also be more able to respond to demand outside city centres.

Housing – The Quiet Decade Speech given by Sir Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor Financial Stability, Member of the Financial Policy Committee, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee and Member of the Prudential Regulation Committee  The Law Society Property Section Convention, London Thursday 20 May 2021  I'm grateful to Kristina Bluwstein, Rand Fakhoury, Lewis Kirkham, Lisa Panigrahi, Sarah Venables and Matt Waldron for their assistance in preparing these remarks. I'd also like to thank Richard Donnell, Robert Gardner, Geoff Meen and Christine Whitehead for sharing some of their insights with me. All view represented here are my own. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  One of the many unusual features of the Covid-driven economic contractions in advanced economies has been the behaviour of housing markets. Housing markets typically slow and house prices fall in severe economic contractions. But despite very adverse economic conditions after the initial Covid lockdown shock last spring, housing markets have been buoyant in many advanced economies and house prices have been rising. House prices grew by 5.7% on average across advanced economies in 2020, the sharpest increase since 20071. Of course, what we have experienced over the past 12 months or so has been very different to a ‘normal’ business cycle contraction or even to the more extreme contractions that follow financial busts.
Under your leadership the bank has continued to bring to the banking sector an array of products and services that provide convenient alternative channels that lead to customer satisfaction and improved service delivery. The introduction of new products and services such as mobile banking, internet banking and e-statements provide customers with greater flexibility in their banking requirements, enabling them to transact at their own convenience, knowing that their finances are completely secure. This will no doubt enhance customer confidence in the banking system in Zambia. Ladies and Gentlemen, I am reliably informed that the m-Banking product we are launching today, will allow the bank to reach out to many more customers. This will increase the number of people with access to the financial system. At Bank of Zambia, we believe strongly that wider access to financial services through positive action by the banking community is vital. We also believe that the driving force will be banks and other financial institutions searching for new, profitable market opportunities. Furthermore, a key element in the strategy of poverty alleviation is the provision of financial services to the majority of our people especially the small and micro entrepreneurs who are financially excluded. Access to improved financial services, through the provision of better ways of accumulating savings and access to credit to augment accumulated savings, avails funds for investment in income generating projects that help the public to lay foundation for better standards of living for themselves and their families.

Caleb M Fundanga: Access to improved financial services in Zambia Remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the Standard Chartered Bank M-Banking Media Launch, Lusaka, 17 March 2009. *  *  *  The Standard Chartered Bank Plc – Managing Director, Ms Mizinga Melu Management and Staff – Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc Members of the Press; Distinguished Guests; Ladies and Gentlemen I am honoured and thankful for the invitation to officiate at this important launch of the m-Banking product. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen; allow me to begin by commending Standard Chartered Bank for the important role it continues to play in the financial sector in Zambia. Since 1906, when Standard Chartered Bank was established in Zambia, the bank has grown to be one of the biggest players in the market. As at 31 January 2009 the bank accounted for about 15% of the banking sector’s total assets, while its deposit base accounted for 18% of total sector deposits. More importantly, the bank’s loan portfolio accounted for 13% of the total loans in the sector. Madam Managing Director, I congratulate you for the Bank’s commitment to providing products and services that best suit the needs of customers. This, in my view, should be emulated by other banks to ensure that more people have access to banking and financial services that are tailor made to meet the needs of customers.
We have been instrumental in promoting greater Asian monetary cooperation, not just in the more visible efforts to deal with the financial turmoil we all are facing, in one way or another, but also the upgrading and standardization of supervisory practices, and the building of the financial infrastructure of this region to facilitate safe and efficient international financial intermediation in this region. Our ability to play this role no doubt enhances Hong Kong’s status as an international financial centre, which is consistent with the requirement laid down in the Basic Law. 12. We took the initiative on the wake of the Mexican crisis in early 1995 to draw the central banking fraternity of this region together to talk about Asian monetary cooperation, which led first to a set of bilateral agreements for the provision of liquidity to each other in case of need. This was followed by the establishment of three working groups to share knowledge and expertise on financial market development, central bank operations and banking supervision issues. Separately, we are also promoting the establishment of linkages of the financial infrastructures of economies in this region, such as payment systems and debt clearing systems, to facilitate the efficient and safe flow of funds amongst ourselves. These efforts will have long-term benefits for the region, both in terms of the maintenance of financial stability and the development of the financial sector. 13.

It is nevertheless conceivable that in a situation where a very high rate of inflation is accompanied by sluggish economic growth, Norges Bank may decide to apply a somewhat longer time horizon than two years to reach the inflation target of 2½ per cent. The choice of monetary policy time horizon reflects the fact that there are real economic costs associated with bringing inflation rapidly back to the target. This horizon is thus an indirect expression of the trade-off between the objectives of, on the one hand, stable output, and on the other hand, low and stable inflation. Historical data for Norway and other countries show that interest rate changes affect aggregate demand fairly quickly. Using the RIMINI model, we have estimated the effects of a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates over a period of two years. The chart shows that, in isolation, an interest rate increase of this magnitude may reduce mainland GDP by ¾ -1 per cent after two years. The effect will depend on a number of factors, such as household loan debt and corporate profitability. Household and business expectations may also play a part in determining the impact of interest rates. The band in the chart illustrates some of this uncertainty as shown by our models. In practice, it is often difficult to determine how long the interest rate will be kept at high or low level.
Spreads between Bank Rate and the interest rates charged to many borrowers remain at unprecedentedly high levels, if indeed borrowers are able to access credit at all. When conditions in the banking sector return to something closer to normal, those spreads will contract and the rate at which that takes place will have an important influence on the speed at which Bank Rate will rise. Uncertainty inevitably surrounds both the speed of the rebalancing and the impact of today’s consumer price inflation on tomorrow’s domestically generated inflation. So it is simply impossible to know now at what point monetary tightening will begin. Let me turn now to the Bank’s new Financial Policy Committee (FPC). Its creation is a response to the lesson that monetary policy cannot target stability of both prices and the financial system. Before 2007, the massive build-up of leverage in the banking system, accompanied by a rapid growth of broad money, led to an expansion of bank balance sheets and a rise in financial fragility, but not inflation. In most industrialised countries, central banks successfully set short-term interest rates to combine steady growth of output with low and stable inflation. But this did not prevent the emergence of unsustainable patterns of demand and unstable financial systems. The FPC aims to deal with that problem by expanding the range of instruments available to the authorities. The FPC has been hard at work preparing for our first policy meeting tomorrow and our first report will be published on 24 June.

We are now working out the details for both schemes, and we look forward to further consultations with HKAB and other bodies as the proposals progress. The theme of the reform programme is facilitating greater competition in the banking sector while strengthening safety and soundness. Perhaps the single most important measure to remove barriers to competition will be the abolition early next month of the last remaining Interest Rate Rules, which involves removing the interest rate cap on savings accounts and ending the prohibition on interest on current accounts. There is, of course, much speculation about the immediate impact of this event: whether it will be a big bang that will change the face of banking services, or merely a quiet change of gear. Given the plentiful liquidity in the banking system, it is likely that it will be the latter. But there should be no doubt about its significance in bringing to an end restrictions that have been in existence for more than a third of a century. The restrictions, some of you may recall, were introduced in 1964 as a measure to prevent cut-throat competition among banks. They served their purpose, but they have now outlived their usefulness. Why do we place so much stress on facilitating competition through regulatory reform? I use the term “facilitate” because it is not within the power of a government – and it is certainly not the policy of our government – to create competition, or to force competition to happen.
The Financial Sector Master Plan phase II, for 2010–2014, has outlined to the banks the timeline of increased competition, and thus banks have prepared themselves. In line  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  with this, we have already announced that existing foreign bank branches can open up to 20 branches in Thailand if they choose to become local subsidiaries with capital base in the country. We are also assessing the possibility of allowing new restricted banking license 2012–2013, and possibly new commercial bank license in 2014 if such banks facilitate our regional economic and investment policy. Finally, let me turn to the progress in capital market to complete a picture of the financial sector. Collective action of both public authorities and private sector since the ASEAN crisis has rebalanced our financial market from a predominantly bank-based to a more balanced one with a growing role of capital market. Sizes of the bond and stock markets have noticeably increased. Number of market participants has also been rising with a more variety of financial products. Moreover, since March 2012 the Thai capital market has been upgraded to the Advanced Emerging Market status in the FTSE Global Equity Index Series from Secondary Emerging Market status. More exciting development is expected to continue under the 5-year Capital Market Development Master Plan which was established in 2009.

As Islamic finance progresses, it will encounter many new challenges. Many of these challenges will be unprecedented and will vary from one country to another. It is from this perspective that as a collective, we need to collaborate even more closely to resolve some of the problems and bring Islamic finance to become an inherent part of society. Whatever we do today, will determine the shape and direction of the industry. For many of you who will become future thought leaders in Islamic finance, take the many opportunities that will come before you, to sharpen and deepen your skills and knowledge. Collaborate, respect and embrace each other’s views on various matters, no matter how far apart you are in your opinions. Celebrate diversity of views. Avoid polemics that trivialise issues. Debate and discuss the more important matters that concerns the ummah. Think, dig deeper and be innovative in approaching problems and solutions. Look at substance rather than form. Let’s not be argumentative. Let’s not get trapped into matters of no significance. Let’s practice and live the norms and the values that led to the glory days of many civilisations. You are a privileged group. As members of a highly diverse and global group of scholars, you are well positioned to make a difference to the world through Islamic finance. Since its inception in 2006, 86 recipients from 20 countries have been awarded the Shariah Scholarship Award. Right now, we have 40 recipients from 12 countries.
We want to make sure that investors have all the facts they need. Such transparency should dispel investor doubts where they are not warranted. It should encourage proper pricing of risk where it is misaligned. And it should encourage corrective actions where they are needed. As such, we trust that it will have a similar effect to the Federal Reserve’s stress test in 2009 that helped lift the fog over the US banking sector. 1  T. Hoshi & A. Kashyap (2013), “Will the U.S and Europe Avoid a Lost Decade? Lessons from Japan’s Post Crisis Experience”, paper presented at the 14th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, November 2013. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Looking further ahead, next year we will have a new European supervisor in place and the year after a new resolution framework and potentially a single resolution mechanism. This will allow for tougher supervision on weak banks, and ensure that non-viable banks can be wound down safely and effectively. Though I expect most banking sector repair to be complete by then, this banking union gives us the powers to ensure that banks contribute to the recovery rather than hold it back. We have also seen a good deal of structural reform in the euro area, in particular in countries under stress. Thanks to early labour market reforms, according to the OECD index labour market institutions in Portugal, Spain and Greece are now more flexible than those in France, Germany and the Netherlands.

So it is simplistic to assume that Germany becoming less competitive would automatically help others – it may indeed harm them. The solution to rebalancing is for other countries to become more competitive, not for Germany to become less so. We need to maximise competitive pressures within Europe to achieve higher efficiency, innovation and productivity growth. And thanks to the structural reforms that are taking place, this is actually what we are seeing. For example, since 2011 Portugal’s export market share has increased by 11 percentage points and Spain’s by 8 percentage points. At the same time, I see a vital need for new investment in Germany. Investment is still around 1 percentage point of GDP lower than it was in 2007, and in that year Germany already had the lowest investment ratio in the euro area. To raise investment we need structural reforms in Germany as well – for instance to liberalise the services sector – thus creating a virtuous circle of higher potential growth and better investment opportunities. And by definition, if more German savings were invested at home, the current account surplus would also fall. To conclude, I do not see the current decade in the euro area as “lost” – I think it is being used well. The decade of adjustment we are facing now is to correct the mistakes of the previous decade. But in the process, I trust we are fixing our problems at the root.
John C Williams: LIBOR - the clock is ticking Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the 2019 US Treasury Market Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 23 September 2019. * * * As prepared for delivery Good morning everyone and welcome to the New York Fed. It’s a pleasure to be speaking at the fifth annual U.S. Treasury Market Conference. This conference is particularly valuable because it brings together market participants and five public sector bodies—the New York Fed, the Board of Governors, the Treasury, the SEC, and the CFTC—to discuss the U.S. Treasury market. The Treasury market is arguably the most important market in the world, and today is a unique opportunity to discuss some of the big topics in front of us. Increasing transparency, preparing for future risks, and taking advantage of innovation in this market are vital areas of discussion. This morning, I’ll begin with some observations on recent volatility in money markets and the Fed’s approach to support stability in this critical part of the financial system as we carry out the FOMC’s monetary policy decisions. I’ll then pivot to a different but related topic: the transition away from LIBOR. I think I can get away with it because this conference’s five sponsoring agencies, which first came together following the “flash rally” in 2014, also all play a vital role in facilitating the industry’s move to more robust reference rates.

The U.K. Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has reached an agreement with banks to keep submitting rates until the end of 2021, but beyond that date the existence of LIBOR is not guaranteed.5 The FCA has made it clear that it expects at least some banks to leave the LIBOR panels soon after 2021, making LIBOR even less representative than it is now, and that it would need to judge whether LIBOR was still representative at that stage.6  Headway Is Being Made While the clock is inevitably ticking, progress is being made. In 2017, the ARRC selected SOFR as its preferred alternative to U.S. dollar LIBOR.7 Since April 2018, the New York Fed has produced SOFR every business day. It’s based on an important underlying market with much higher volumes than LIBOR, and is compliant with the Principles for Financial Benchmarks set forth by the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO).8 The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) has led really important work on the development of contingencies for some derivatives products for the scenario where LIBOR ceases to exist.9 A key question is what will happen if the FCA finds LIBOR to no longer be representative. Two large central counterparties have already indicated that they would expect to move the LIBOR trades they clear to SOFR if this occurred.
However, at the beginning of the 1970s, the exchange rate cooperation collapsed because of the tensions that had built up due to high, variable inflation in and between the participant countries and that had largely originated from the growing US budget deficit. Efforts at the time to establish a new credible anchor for inflation failed. The following two decades were marked instead by high inflation and low growth in many economies. BIS Review 40/2004  1  From the end of the 1970s the pendulum started to swing back slowly, and an increasing number of economists again highlighted the importance of price stability for economic stability and long-term growth. Attempts to fine-tune the economy via economic policy to stabilise growth had resulted in burgeoning central government debt in many countries, partly because of the inability of politicians to tighten policy sufficiently during booms. The economic debate at the beginning of the 1980s centred therefore on the need for regulations and fixed limits to avoid this. In Sweden, a last big devaluation in 1982 would first enhance the competitiveness that had been eroded for many years as a result of high inflation. However, it was intended that once the devaluation had got the competitive sector on its feet, the fixed exchange rate would thereafter serve as an anchor for an inflation rate in line with other countries. The demands that this imposed on fiscal policy proved politically impossible to live up to, however.

Other measures such as so-called moral suasion, whereby the problems are pointed out to the banks and the financial sector, could then also come into question. It is also reasonable for central banks to take some responsibility for real economic developments in addition to those that are judged to affect inflation in the medium term, even if financial stability is not under immediate threat. As I mentioned, the Riksbank has decided to take account of this by disregarding temporary effects on inflation. We also discuss developments beyond the target horizon that normally governs monetary policy. A successful, flexible policy of inflation targeting leads to lower fluctuations in output without giving rise for that reason to higher average inflation. And that is the essential aim of the price stability target. The second question, however, is considerably more difficult to answer. Forecasts of resource utilisation and inflation can be systematically inaccurate because the models and assessments used do not take account of the independent role that asset prices and debt can play. Also, as a result of structural changes, historical relationships may have changed, thus causing the central bank, for example, to come to incorrect conclusions about the output gap and potential growth. This could, for instance, result in a monetary policy that pushes up asset prices and debt too high. For example, the traditional models, which are grounded in an analysis of the real economy, are based on assumptions of rationally behaving households and firms, efficient capital markets and linear relationships.