samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I wrote mine on the European Monetary system, then in its first phase; it was my first exposure to analysing an active policy tool. I recall that it turned out to be rather heavy on institutional detail about the EMS and rather light on the economics and efficacy of exchange rate regimes. At the end of my presentation Peter, first, went out of his way, as he always did in response to any presentation, to compliment me on all the efforts I had put in. Only after that, did he then, in his characteristically gentle but incisive way, set out several avenues I might follow in developing my analysis of nominal versus real adjustment. In doing so Peter drew on a whole host of references and models that he could call on from memory, some of which I’m sure found their way into Modern International Economics, the textbook Peter wrote with Shelagh Heffernan, his first wife, who died in 2010. 1  The IEO’s report is available on the Bank of England website, as is the Bank’s response. 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  2  Peter seemed to be focused on the most important and relevant policy issues of the time – he always wanted to learn more about the world and to suggest ways that economics and economists could improve it. And he conveyed that enthusiasm and ambition to each student intake and to his colleagues.

In the latest published accounts the Bank’s loss-absorbing capital stood at £ That is an appropriate sum to hold against potential losses from the Bank’s liquidity operations and funding schemes, which are prudently backed by good quality collateral.23 But the risks from the QE portfolio, which by its nature is necessarily uncollateralised and unhedged, are potentially much larger. (Figure 6) For that reason the Bank’s QE purchases are carried out from a subsidiary called the Asset Purchase Facility (APF) which is indemnified by HM Treasury, so that the cost of any net losses is met by HM Treasury rather than from the Bank’s own capital, while any gains accrue to HM Treasury, with net cash flows transferred once a quarter.24  Figure 6: APF cash-flow arrangements  Taken from the IEO’s report on its evaluation of QE. In practice the APF has made a net accounting gain over its life to date. The scale of this gain was not foreseen, much less intended, at the time of its creation, and has certainly never been regarded as a goal of QE. Instead it reflects the fact that since QE was launched interest rates have fallen and stayed low, while the MPC has not yet taken the decision to sell any of its bonds, which might crystallise losses.
2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Among the factors underlying the demand trend is the recovery from the crisis and the earthquake, together with the banking credit expansion combined with reduced lending spreads, which is consistent with the flexibilization of lending standards as reported in the Banking Credit Survey to financial institutions undertaken by the Bank. Therefore, projections are that GDP will grow 5.2% in 2010, while demand will increase 16.1% annually, reflecting that output gaps are narrowing and close to exhaustion (figure 6). In 2011, domestic demand will continue to drive GDP growth, with a y-o-y increase of 6.6%. Consumption and investment will be dynamic, but not as much as in 2010. This trajectory is based on still optimistic confidence indicators, a positive labor market, ongoing expansionary monetary conditions and a favorable scenario for borrowing (figure 7). In addition, next year will see a stronger impact of public and private reconstruction works, which should be visible mainly in infrastructure investment, in line with a dynamic construction sector. Accordingly, the investment rate will rise next year, to more than 30% of GDP in real terms. Inventory change, meanwhile, will be smaller than in 2010, due to the completion of the inventory replacement process triggered by depletion in late 2008 and the earthquake last February. In the case of the public sector, the baseline scenario is consistent with provisions in the Budget Law.

Chile)  3.2 2.2 1.5 10,0 5.6 2.7  2.6 2.1 1.7 10.5 5.1 3.6  -2.6 -4,0 -5.2 9.1 0.1 -2.2  2.7 1.6 3.5 10.1 7.1 6.0  2.3 0.8 0.8 8.5 4.2 3.7  3.3 1.4 1.9 8.8 5.1 4.3  20  44  62  79  89  89  101  156  234  340  330  320  WTI oil price $ LME copper price $ (e) Estimate. (f) Forecast. Sources: Central Bank of Chile based on investment banks, Consensus Forecasts and International Monetary Fund. Figure 5 Contribution to annual GDP growth (variación real anual, puntos porcentuales) Economic activity  Aggregate demand  8  8  25  25  6  6  20  20  4  4  15  15  2  2  10  10  0  0  5  5  -2  -2  0  0  -4  -4  -5  -5  -6  -6 -10  -10  07  08  09  10  Financial and entrepreneurial services (1) EGA Mining & fishing Manufacturing Construction Communication & transport Retail Residual (2) GDP  -15  07  08  09  10  -15  GFCF Change in inventories Government consumption Private consumption Exports GDP  (1) Includes financial services, insurances, housing leases and services provided to firms. (2) Includes agriculturalforestry, housing property, public administration and personal services (i.e., education, health-care and other services).
To date, CCRIS has a database of 9 million users covering approximately 53% of the adult population while the Credit Bureau Malaysia has over 28,000 registered members and generated more than 1.4 million credit reports. To empower consumers to make well-informed financial decisions, Bank Negara Malaysia has also established financial advisory centres and contact points such as the Credit Counselling and Debt Management Agency and BNMLINK. Since its inception in 2006,  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  AKPK has provided financial education to the public, benefiting more than 260,000 people nationwide. To provide financial knowledge to the young, financial education elements are now incorporated as part of the syllabus for primary schools and will be extended to secondary schools by 2017. Consumer education efforts in Malaysia are also reinforced by a holistic consumer protection framework to ensure financial institutions practise responsible financing, conduct effective product transparency and disclosure, as well as, appropriate debt collection practices. These measures have produced positive outcomes. As a result, 92% of adults (aged 15 and above) in Malaysia have access to a deposit account and basic banking services. Malaysia has also been ranked first for 6 consecutive years since 2007 for “Getting Credit” in the “Ease of Doing Business” index by the World Bank. Accelerating the migration to e-payments as a key enabler for financial inclusion The success of any financial inclusion tool or policy would depend largely on the presence of a reliable, efficient and safe payment system.

And heightened uncertainty can add to market volatility, resulting in diminished market liquidity. But these debates about trade-offs expose a basic problem. Everyone is familiar with the idea of a "jack of all trades." Using monetary policy to mitigate financial stability vulnerabilities can lead to unfavorable outcomes for the economy. Monetary policy should not try to be a jack of all trades and a master of none. There must be a better way. Fortunately, there is. Instead of looking at this as a problem of choosing the point on an unfavorable trade-off curve, we must look for ways to shift the curve by enhancing the resilience of the financial system. The value of this approach to building resilience was demonstrated by the global efforts to strengthen the banking system following the global financial crisis. Despite the economic disruptions caused by COVID-19 and Russia's war on Ukraine, the banking system has functioned well, serving as a source of strength for the economy, not a weak link. Alternative Solutions, Prudent Results As monetary policymakers, we need to count on well-functioning markets that promote financial stability as we pursue our price stability and maximum employment goals. So, what can be done to enhance financial stability? At the Federal Reserve, we have instituted changes over the past few years that support market functioning in times of stress.
This morning, I would like to take the opportunity to briefly address some of the issues and priorities that are currently directing the Bank’s work in this area. We have substantially completed a review of the existing corporate governance frameworks for the banking and insurance industries and expect to be able to consult with industry on our specific proposals to update and harmonise the frameworks later this year. As part of this review, the insurance industry can expect that what is currently described as “best practice” in the prudential framework on corporate governance will be elevated to principles or minimum expectations to be met by all institutions. We do not expect this to substantially alter current practice in the industry given that for some time now, the Bank already holds insurers to higher standards that reflect the maturity of the industry and the more sophisticated nature of the business over time. But we also set out in the review to take a fresh and critical look at some key elements of the governance framework to ensure that our requirements remain fit for purpose in the context of the changing financial landscape. Independence, board size and composition, and expectations of subsidiary boards are among some themes addressed in our proposals. We have drawn extensively on our supervisory observations and thematic reviews of governance practices over the course of the past two years in informing our review. In many areas, positive changes can be observed in the governance practices of insurers.

First, we did our routine work in the money markets of lending to the banking system against high quality collateral, such as government debt, and at Bank Rate set each month by the Monetary Policy Committee. After some initial volatility, we achieved our primary objective in the money markets of bringing interest rates on overnight borrowing into line with Bank Rate. And over the past two months as a whole, overnight interest rates have, on average, been as close to Bank Rate in the UK as in the euro area and closer than in the US. We were, however, pressed to do more than our routine job and to lend in exchange for other collateral, including the financial assets for which the markets had virtually closed. Banks, in particular, said they wanted us to help them turn illiquid assets into cash. As I told the House of Commons Treasury Committee on 20 September, we were cautious about doing this. The case for caution is, in the jargon, moral hazard. Put simply, such action by us encourages the very risk-taking that caused the present problems. It is crucial that, in making their lending and borrowing decisions, banks face the right incentives. That is why we did offer to lend in exchange for illiquid assets but only at a penalty rate of interest. Support on the scale required by Northern Rock would have been difficult to undertake without it becoming “stigmatised” – regardless of the method adopted.
There are precedents for such an approach. At the introduction of Basel II, temporary floors were introduced into aggregate capital requirements, set at 80% of Basel I requirements. And under the Collins amendment to the Dodd-Frank Act, banks using internal models will be subject to a 100% floor based on the simpler standardised approach. 19 But these measures only take us so far. Regulatory-imposed floors do little by themselves to simplify the underlying regulatory architecture. Only by removing internal models from the regulatory framework can this be achieved. As an alternative foundation stone, simplified, standardised approaches to measuring credit and market risk, on a broad asset class basis, could be used. Indeed, there have been already been small steps in this direction. A consultation document on the fundamental review of the trading book issued in May this year proposed a greater role for standardised approaches. 20 This would be a turning back of the clock, restoring the regulatory framework as a backstop to commercial risk management. Legal rules and regulatory rules have followed a similar historical path. In response to crisis events and case law, both have evolved into a complex tapestry. In his book “Simple Rules for a Complex World”, Richard Epstein suggests this legal tapestry can be unravelled into six basic threads (Epstein (1995)). The same unravelling ought to be possible in banking. (b)  Leverage versus capital  The Basel III framework will introduce for the first time an internationally-agreed leverage ratio – a 1/N rule.

In the UK, regulatory reporting was introduced in 1974. Returns could have around 150 entries. In the Bank of England archives is a memo to George Blunden, who was to become Deputy Governor, on these proposed regulatory returns. Blunden’s handwritten comment reads: “I confess that I fear we are in danger of becoming excessively complicated and that if so we may miss the wood from the trees”. 12 Today, UK banks are required to fill in more than 7,500 separate cells of data – a fifty-fold rise. Forthcoming European legislation will cause a further multiplication. Banks across Europe could in future be required to fill in 30–50,000 data cells spread across 60 different regulatory forms. There will be less risk of regulators missing the wood from the trees, but only because most will have needed to be chopped down. In the US, regulatory reporting has a history going back to the early 19th century. Nationally-chartered banks began to submit quarterly returns after the formation of the OCC in 1863. In 1869, following a legislative amendment, these became “call reports”, so named because banks were asked to report on surprise dates to prevent window-dressing. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 required all state-chartered member banks to file reports with the OCC and in 1917 responsibility for collecting these passed to the Federal Reserve. By 1930, these reports might contain around 80 entries. Today, regulatory reporting is on an altogether different scale. Since 1978, the Federal Reserve has required quarterly reporting by bank holding companies.
The ease with which the U.S. financial system absorbed the substantial scale of corporate defaults that peaked in recent years in 2002 provides some support for the argument that broader and deeper capital markets make the system more resilient. In general, there does not seem to be strong empirical support for the proposition that derivatives increase volatility in financial markets. Volatility is not higher where derivatives are most prevalent. Credit market innovation does not appear to have resulted in a large increase in leverage in the corporate sector, as some had feared. Indeed, nonfinancial corporate leverage in the United States is currently low by recent historical standards. The overall degree of balance sheet leverage by corporations, for example, is higher in some more traditional financial systems than it is in systems where credit market innovations are more advanced. Default rates do not appear to have risen, nor recovery rates fallen as these credit innovations have spread, despite concerns they might lead to excess lending, the mis-pricing of credit risk and more messy and more complicated workouts, resulting from the greater diffusion of the investor base. And although the sources of the broad moderation in GDP volatility observed in the United States over the past two decades are still the subject of debate, the fact that this moderation occurred during a period of extensive innovation in credit and other financial markets should provide some comfort for those who expected the opposite. Innovations in credit markets are inevitably accompanied by challenges.

Similarly, from a longer perspective, in nominal terms, the ratio between private consumption and private national disposable income is close to its historic average. Overall, an increase in the current account deficit could entail unwanted risks, which is particularly important in a context where sudden changes may occur in macroeconomic conditions, which could precipitate difficult adjustments to the national economy. In the past, most of the crises that the country endured were preceded by high and persistent current account deficits, an excessive increase in borrowing, and important currency mismatches. However, today’s economic policy framework is more advanced, including a rule that governs fiscal policy and cushions the impact on public expenditure of both copper price fluctuations around its long-term trend and the ups and downs of the business cycle. It also includes a floating exchange rate regime that puts currency risks under the light allowing an early response to sudden changes in external conditions. And it contemplates proper financial regulation and supervision to prevent the incubation of excessive risk. Accordingly, the Board estimates that it is paramount to closely monitor those factors that are behind the current account deficit, in order to avoid the incubation of imbalances that may affect the future performance of the economy. Another risk factor we have identified is the dynamic of the real estate sector. In mid year, we called the attention to the evolution of real estate prices, with a focus on some districts.
40  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  40  Chart 25: Cartogram of local-authority level ECIs  Sources: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) and Bank calculations. Notes: UK NUTS 3 regions re-sized and coloured using estimates of economic complexity. 41  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  41  Table 1 lists the top ten local authorities by ECI across the UK in 2017, while Table 2 shows the bottom ten. There is a high degree of inertia in both rankings. The ECI framework could be used to help assess which industrial strategy interventions might boost the degree of specialism and diversity, and hence the income benefits, both in already-successful and struggling regions. Table 2: Bottom 10 local authorities by ECI Dudley  Moray  South Derbyshire  Hartlepool  Wrexham  Carmarthenshire  Aberdeenshire  Breckland  North-East Lincolnshire  Telford and Wrekin  Sources: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) and Bank calculations. Economic complexity can also be assessed across industries using a product complexity index (PCI). This proxies the embedded knowledge in an industry. Table 3 plots the top-20 UK industries by PCI against their sector shares. Financial services, the creative industries, and higher education exhibit the highest economic complexity and thus potentially generate the highest value-added. PCI metrics could be used to identify industries where “sector deals” could benefit most the economy, as part of an industrial strategy.

•  RMB deposits grew more than 20% year-on year. •  Average daily RMB FX turnover grew more than two times in 2014. RMB is now one of top 5 most actively traded currencies in Singapore. •  Aim in coming years is to: o  Grow RMB capital market activities, including through promoting RMB bond issuance;  o  Enhance RMB asset management capabilities, leveraging on RQFII; and  o  Promote cross-border RMB financing, building on RMB pilot for Suzhou Industrial Park and Tianjin Eco-city. Making concerted efforts in two areas that cut across asset classes: skills and technology. 63. First, SkillsFuture. •  We want to be a financial centre that is among leaders globally in workforce skills and expertise, with a strong core of Singaporeans at every level. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  •  MAS in partnership with industry and educational and training institutes, will undertake initiatives to strengthen support for finance professionals to: o  o o  learn continuously, develop expertise, and make strong contributions throughout their professional careers. 64. Second, Smart Financial Centre. •  We want to be a financial centre where innovation is pervasive and technology is used effectively to: o o  o  o •  10  increase efficiency, create new opportunities, manage risks better, and improve people’s lives. MAS in partnership with industry will drive initiatives to create a vibrant ecosystem for innovation and adoption of new technologies while fostering safety and security. BIS central bankers’ speeches
First, I would like to touch briefly on the Bank of Thailand’s latest view on domestic growth in short and medium term. Then I will delve more deeply into concerns in the U.S. and the Eurozone, along with the likely implications on Thailand’s recovery. Ladies and Gentlemen, I would like to first share with you the Bank of Thailand’s latest economic projection and our outlook for the Thai economy. Despite the fact that we have less than two months to go for 2011, the Bank has just revised down its growth projection for the Thai economy this year, from 4.1 percent in July’s assessment to only 2.6 percent in October’s. This significant downward revision reflects the severity and the broad-based impacts of the flood, which has brought about a halt in agricultural and manufacturing production in affected areas, and has also disrupted production chains in other areas as well. The automobile industry, which has just recovered from supply chain disruptions following natural disasters in Japan earlier this year, is once again terribly affected. And in the big picture, we have sharply lower consumption and investment spending that will require some time to resume their normal trend. But even in the face of this hardship, and amidst the external environment that is quite unpredictable given heightened risks and uncertainty from the U.S. and the Eurozone, we still expect Thailand’s growth outlook to be favorable next year.

We should take great care not to roll back this important achievement, or to water down its implementation to an extent that it would no longer be seen as a credible framework. Notwithstanding the significance of the reinforcements put in place for the policy framework, I believe that there is still room for further legislative action where the financial sector is concerned. In addition to a better performing banking sector, an increased role of capital markets could help to support both growth in Europe and the financing of the real economy. To fully reap the benefits of capital market integration, the regulatory environment needs to be harmonised further and, potentially, to be adapted. The joint paper of the ECB and the Bank of England on a better functioning securitisation market in the EU has set out a number of proposals in this regard. Furthermore, a better regulation of financial benchmarks is BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  necessary to restore the confidence and trust of citizens and market participants in the financial system. A swift adoption of the relevant Commission’s proposal is of utmost importance. Discussions will also continue on the shape and structure of our banking sector and the regulation of the shadow banking sector. Finally, over and beyond this focus on concrete short and medium-term measures, we should bear in mind that Economic and Monetary Union still remains an incomplete structure.