samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
36  20  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  20  These visits have subsequently become an established part of the Bank’s engagement programme.40 We now have a well-developed network of Citizens Panels across all regions of the UK, as well as a Youth Forum. These meet regularly, hosted by senior Bank staff with an independent chair, and comprise a diverse spectrum of the public. The issues raised at these fora are published annually. We also have a programme of Community Forums, which engage with local charities and community groups on local issues. Complementing these engagement initiatives, I have helped oversee the Bank’s educational engagement programme over the past few years, including the development of curriculum materials for 11-16 year olds (EconoMe) and 8-11 year olds (Money and Me), the latter in partnership with the Times Educational Supplement and the Beano. This has given the Bank a face and a footprint among millions of early learners. That, I hope, will bear longer-term fruit for both those learners and the Bank. Finally, I set up and ran the Bank’s Flagship seminar programme. This has brought in a diverse set of inspirational speakers – from Grayson Perry to Michael Holding, from Prue Leith to Doreen Lawrence, from Trevor MacDonald to Billy Bragg. It has provided Bank staff, and the wider public, with a wider angle lens on the most pressing societal issues of the day.

Following quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP of 0.9% in the first quarter, the latest information indicates that activity is expected to maintain a strong rate of expansion, whereby a further slight quickening in output is estimated in the second quarter, to 1% in quarterly terms. Average growth in the first half of the year, in annualised terms, is thus expected to be around 4%. The projections for the rest of 2015 and for next year point to continuing dynamism, with Spain clearly outpacing most of its euro area partners. However, this momentum might be slightly contained by the weakening of some of the expansionary impulses, such as the fall in oil prices and the depreciation of the euro. For 2016, the projections estimate average growth of 2.7%, with greater uncertainty naturally accompanying the longer time ahead involved. In terms of the composition of spending, the most recent phase of the recovery has been marked by the growing weight of national demand, which has replaced external demand as the main net contributor to growth. Foreseeably, in the near future, this pattern will continue, with a contribution by the external sector to the increase in GDP that is practically neutral in net terms. Exports, particularly to the euro area, are expected to post higher growth, while the tempo of imports will slacken somewhat.
Embracing Fintech Speech given by Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor Markets & Banking  Innovate Finance Global Summit 2019 Tuesday 30 April 2019  I am grateful to Amy Lee, Irina Mnohoghitnei, Tom Smith and Oliver Thew for their assistance in preparing these remarks, and to colleagues in the Fintech Hub and across the Bank for helpful comments and suggestions. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  Introduction  Thank you for the opportunity to be here today and open the second day of this important global summit speaking on behalf of the Bank of England, as the Deputy Governor with responsibility for fintech. In the past ten years, growth in the digital economy, new technologies and an increased ability to capture and analyse large amounts of data have spurred a new wave of innovation by financial institutions. And that wave of innovation will intensify in the coming years. Fintech is enabling new players and business models to enter the market. This is increasing competition, helping meet unfulfilled customer needs, reducing inefficiencies and changing the way institutions provide – and consumers and businesses use – financial services. It could transform the structure of the financial sector, with implications for customers, firms and regulators. 1  Given our range of responsibilities, it is essential that the Bank of England keeps on top of this wave and understands and adapts to its implications.

In short, we have been designated as an honorary member of this entity. My thanks to the Association but, above all, to those who have made this work possible over the years, and to those continuing it and adding to its prestige today. Lastly, allow me to stress another of the grounds for a publication such as that we are presenting today. It is a question of transparency, understood as the possibility of sharing information with society as a whole. As I pointed out in one of my early public appearances as governor of the Banco de España, I consider making high-quality statistical information 4/5  available to researchers as absolutely crucial for sound analyses and research enabling better-founded economic policy decision-making.1 In this respect, we intend in the coming years to pursue various projects that allow these researchers to have access to our statistical information, thereby enabling different avenues of analysis and research of benefit to society as a whole. In conclusion, I would like to reiterate my satisfaction at these initiatives and to thank the efforts and contributions, from both the public and private spheres, of those who have participated in this publication. In some ways, this substantiates the fact that these avenues for sharing information and making it available to society are enormously beneficial for all. Thank you. 1  See my “Welcome address” for the Second Annual Research Conference of Banco de España, 2018, at: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/GAP/Secciones/SalaPrensa/IntervencionesPublicas/Gobernador/Arc/hdc030918en.pdf. 5/5
Hence the focus on two dimensions: -  Loss absorbency: firms need TLAC in the right amount (enough not only to absorb losses but to provide for recapitalisation so firms can continue to meet requirements for authorisation); in the right form (debt with residual maturity of a year and subordinated to operating liabilities to avoid breaches of the ‘no creditor worse off than insolvency’ (NCWO) safeguard or other challenges to the bail-in and at the same time to provide clarity to depositors that they are not likely to be bailed in); and in the right location (ensuring that resources are positioned within a group so that the key operating companies containing a firm’s critical functions can be recapitalised 3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  3  immediately in resolution).As such, international agreement of the FSB’s TLAC standard in 2015 represented a major milestone in moving towards ending TBTF. -  4  Continuity of critical functions: the second main dimension of stabilisation is to ensure continuity in a firm’s operations in resolution. Part of this is legal – changing contractual arrangements so that entry into resolution does not result in widespread, disorderly termination, close-out or acceleration in financial contracts, provision of services or access to financial market infrastructures (FMIs). It is true that under the Key Attributes, resolution regimes include statutory powers to stay. But statutory stays may not be effective cross-border.

Rather, it is our intention to take several months for the bail-in valuation to ensure that through an independent valuation process, losses as far as possible are bottomed out and tie back to the reorganisation plan for the surviving business. It will be critical to determine the net asset value that had been generated in the bail-in and the liability holders it should go to as compensation. You may ask, what happens in the intervening period? From the perspective of the debt investor, our intention on entry to resolution is to take control of the shares in issue and immobilise all the other external  12  The Bank of England published a consultation paper on valuation capabilities to support resolvability on 17 August 2017. See https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/financial-stability/resolution/boes-proposed-policy-on-valuation-capabilities-tosupport-resolvability.pdf?la=en&hash=4044F91DF1DDE7A131EA3186F66F304380553306 . 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7  MREL instruments at the relevant international central securities depository (ICSDs) and central securities depository (CSDs). We will at the same time issue onto the bondholders accounts at the ICSDs a tradeable certificate of entitlement secured by the shares in issue. There will be as many classes of certificate as there are classes of claim. Once the valuation is complete and we have announced the terms of exchange, holders will present the certificates in exchange for whatever equity they are entitled to as compensation. The resulting shareholders will then vote in a new board and the firm will return to private sector control.
What concerns would you have? What concerns at a European level, at the ECB level, are there about Brexit? Let me make three points on this. One is, as I think it’s well understood here: we’re in a pause. Brexit has happened, but until we know what the new trade deal is going to be, the uncertainty remains. The more quickly a trade deal is concluded the better, because we do think uncertainty in general is holding back the European economy. A second point to make is trade frictions: the more severe the trade frictions, the worse we think the medium-term performance of the UK and European economies will be. But taking the overall European view: the United Kingdom is not big enough. It’s a big country, but compared with the EU27 it is not big enough to be the driving force for the future of the euro area. Of course, it’s more important for us (in Ireland), as it’s the closest neighbour. But for the euro area, while it’s an important concern, compared with global trade and the future of, say, China and the emerging economies, this is a medium-priority topic. The last point is that, in terms of the financial system, it’s very important that we have good 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  supervisory relationships with the Bank of England and the other supervisors in the United Kingdom.

So even though the trade deal focuses on trading goods and services, we also have an agenda to make sure we can work together post-Brexit in terms of supervising the euro area financial system and the UK financial system. Final question, just on a personal level: how are you finding the new job? Are you enjoying it? Is it everything you thought it would be? What’s Frankfurt like? Let me say two things. One is that of course I very much miss working at the Central Bank of Ireland, which is a great institution. But as an economist, leading the economics work of the ECB is a tremendous personal challenge and tremendously fulfilling. I can tell you that residentially, Frankfurt as a city is fantastic to spend time in. They may have historically a reputation of being a bit quiet, but I think anyone who spends time there is pleased with it. It is a really nice city to visit. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
However, even once the Fed normalizes the size of its balance sheet and securities portfolio, the composition of its securities portfolio will not yet be “normal.” The projections I mentioned earlier—which assume ongoing implementation of the FOMC’s capped portfolio reduction strategy—estimate that the domestic 3 / 13  BIS central bankers' speeches  securities portfolio could contain more than $ trillion in agency MBS at the time the balance sheet reaches a normalized size, even though the FOMC has indicated a preference to hold primarily Treasury securities in the longer run. Meanwhile, the maturity profile of the Treasury portfolio at that time is projected to be more skewed towards longer-term holdings than it was before the crisis, when the Fed held one-third of its portfolio in Treasury bills, and about twothirds of its holdings matured in less than three years.16  A role for asset purchases at the zero lower bound As they digest the experience of the past decade, policymakers, academics, and market participants are engaged in an active dialogue on appropriate monetary policy strategies and the role of unconventional policy tools in future zero lower bound episodes.17 Amid widespread concerns of a secular decline in nominal interest rates, this is not just a theoretical discourse. The median of FOMC participants’ projections for the longer-run value of the nominal federal funds rate is currently 2¾ percent, leaving little room to ease the stance of policy through changes in overnight rates.

1, Spring 2003. 34 Such communications are a form of Odyssean forward guidance about the balance sheet. See Jeffrey R.  Campbell et al, “Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance, ” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2012. The authors distinguish between central bank forward guidance that simply forecasts macroeconomic performance and likely monetary policy actions (Delphic guidance), and guidance that publicly commits the central bank to a set of future actions (Odyssean guidance). 35 Because market prices are forward-looking, an announcement that affects expectations about the stock of  assets held by the Fed should have an immediate impact on market prices. However, the overall size of the market impact will depend on the expected path of portfolio holdings over time. In addition, completion of purchases may be perceived as strengthening the central bank’s commitment by making it more difficult to deviate from announced plans. 36 However, since term premium effects decay as securities age, selling securities with relatively short remaining  times to maturity may not be materially different than redeeming those securities. 37 The Fed’s first two purchase programs were launched with pre-announced sizes and time frames (although the  first program was later expanded). In contrast, the third program was open-ended and state-contingent.
Muhammad Al-Jasser: Compliance and combating money laundering Speech by His Excellency Dr Muhammad Al-Jasser, Governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), at the Symposium on Compliance and Anti-Money Laundering, Institute of Banking, Riyadh, 23–24 March 2010. *  *  *  In the name of Allah the Merciful, and blessings and peace be upon His Prophet and Messenger, Dear audience, I am pleased to welcome you to this symposium, which is organized by the Institute of Banking (IOB) and deals with two important and interrelated issues: compliance and combating money laundering. Decision-makers and legislators have paid increasing attention to the issue of compliance with regulations, criteria and guidelines because of its importance to financial institutions in achieving better performance, avoiding risks and enhancing their success. At the same time, compliance maintains the reputation and credibility of financial institutions and protects them against regulatory sanctions. It also protects the interests of shareholders and depositors. Compliance is a comprehensive and multifaceted responsibility, and achieving compliance is a duty that all employees in any financial institution have to undertake, each according to entrusted powers and tasks. Recognizing the importance of compliance, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, with the participation of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), approved and issued the paper pertaining to principles of compliance and its function at banks, in April 2005.

16  13  Campbell et al (2011). 14  This was not estimated in Fujiwara et al (2014), but estimates of the impact of TV on well-being are available in Frey et al (2007). 15  The exact figure is £ from Fujiwara et al (2014). 16  This is for all employee jobs from the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  If you multiply that per-person benefit by the 15 million or so regular volunteers, you get a private benefit of volunteering close to £ billion per year. 17 If you added in non-regular volunteers, you would get a larger number still. In other words, adding together private and economic benefits roughly doubles estimates of the value of volunteering, to something perhaps closer to £ billion per year. (b)  Health benefits  The Centre for Mental Health estimates that the economic and social costs of mental health problems are huge. The health and social care costs alone are worth over £ the associated output losses £ and the human costs over £ So anything that improves mental health, even in a small way, can make a big difference to social welfare. Volunteering is typically found to have a positive impact on mental health – for example, by enhancing social integration and engagement. 18 Certainly, that is what volunteers themselves say. Remaining active and socially engaged can be particularly important for older age groups, post-child raising and post-retirement.
The problems I have seen are based on a combination of inflation having clearly undershot the target, the Riksbank’s inflation forecasts having been more optimistic than those of other analysts, the Executive Board’s repo-rate paths having indicated a tighter monetary policy than the market and analysts have expected and the repo-rate paths having been revised down time after time. I have said that in such a situation it is better to cut the rate immediately rather than continuing to present a repo-rate path that is not perceived by outsiders as entirely credible. However, these problems have become a little less important in recent months as other analysts’ forecasts of inflation and the repo rate have been revised up. Thirdly, it is not self-evident that taking into account household debt means setting a higher repo rate than we would otherwise have done. The current repo rate, 1 per cent, is undeniably low. In the long run, the repo rate will be raised to much higher levels. But we cannot raise the repo rate until we see that inflation has clearly begun to move towards the target of 2 per cent. And when this happens will of course depend on monetary policy. If we cut the repo rate now, inflation will rise faster towards the target. If the repo rate is left unchanged it will take longer before inflation begins to rise, and this in turn means that it will take a long time before the repo rate can be raised.

And I consider that monetary policy should, in principle, take into account financial imbalances and risks that may arise as a result of the monetary policy conducted. In what way is this compatible with the Riksbank’s mandate? According to the Sveriges Riksbank Act, the objective of the Riksbank’s activities is to maintain price stability. Moreover, the Riksbank shall promote a safe and efficient payment system. In addition, the preliminary works to the Act state that the Riksbank, without prejudice to the price stability target, should support the goals of general economic policy with a view to maintaining a sustainable level of growth and high rate of employment. At the Riksbank we consider the task of promoting a safe and efficient payment system to have a broad meaning and that it is, in practice, a matter of taking responsibility for promoting the stability of the financial system.2 But it is not actually this task that justifies monetary policy taking into account a rapid expansion in household borrowing.
23  14  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  14  A benefit of our approach is that it allows choices over the asset composition of our balance sheet (eg between OMOs and outright holdings) during QT. At the same time, we retain one of the key benefits of a floor system, which is the capacity to allow for the smooth expansion in assets and reserves in the future, whether for liquidity insurance purposes or for monetary policy goals as directed by the MPC, without interfering with interest rate setting. At least two design challenges remain, however. The first is that we cannot perfectly anticipate how short-term market interest rates will behave in the new system, and will therefore need to be responsive in our operational approach:  -  It is likely that market rates will be a little higher on average relative to Bank Rate than they are now, reflecting the fact that reserves will be in somewhat scarce, rather than ample, supply. As a one-off shift, this is unlikely to be of great significance to the setting of monetary policy. -  Market rates may be slightly more variable too, particularly initially as banks adjust to the new system and learn to identify and bid for the amount of reserves they need.

By that criterion, inflation as projected in the Bank’s forecast will be at target for the entire forecast horizon through end-2017, apart for the last quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016. According to the forecast, inflation will average 2.6% during the period 2014–17 and will therefore be at the 2½% target. If this materialises, it is hard to call it anything other than an acceptable performance. It is naturally less of a concern if inflation deviates temporarily from target if inflation expectations do not deviate in the same direction. Early this year, inflation expectations were above target even though measured inflation was below it. But fortunately, inflation expectations have subsided towards the target in the recent term and, by some measures, are close to it, particularly short-term expectations. This is important for monetary policy, as I will explain shortly. I have briefly discussed the current situation and the economic outlook. But what about uncertainties and known risks? There are risks attached to the global economy, which seems to be on the downside, at least in the near term, as regards both output growth and inflation. And there is the risk that our economic policy and contractual wage negotiations will not be successful, as has so often been the case during upswings. GDP growth will then be somewhat stronger in the short run, but the current account balance will deteriorate and inflation will rise, and ultimately GDP growth will fall below what it would have been otherwise.