samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I would like to move on now from regulation to a number of other developments and challenges that are currently on the horizon and to discuss the possible impacts these could have on insurers’ business models. The nature of insurance and the risk transfer role it provides means that insurance cuts across all aspects of society; whether providing at retirement solutions to pensioners to insuring the latest iPhone. It is for this reason that insurers find themselves innovating in step with wider society. As insurers are directly exposed to social changes, the changing world is the very stuff on which they should thrive. There are a number of such societal, regulatory or environmental changes currently at play such as global warming, globalisation, digitisation, demographic changes and cyber risk to name but a few. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Societal and environmental changes A topical environmental change that is quickly moving up the agenda for insurers is that of climate change. Climate change impacts insurers on both sides of their balance sheets. Insurers may be impacted by increased claims experience – particularly so given the London Market’s prominence in areas like catastrophe risk. But it appears that the asset side may also give rise to unexpected risks. Let’s take these in turn. We are seeing evermore frequent “record” weather events; storms; floods; hotter summers; intense rainfall; not to mention global concerns such as higher sea levels. Insurers are having to respond to these shifts.

One can certainly say that in normal times that could be resolved at group level. However, this didn’t necessarily prove to be the case in the recent experience. Because our financial systems are inter-connected, I think this issue deserves more attention in the future.   A crucial step in alleviating the financial crisis in CEE countries was the Vienna initiative, which stabilized both the balance sheets of the big banking groups operating in the region and the trust of our public in them. I think such a facility needs to be permanent, at least in the case of global or European potential financial  4  BIS Review 173/2010    Financial regulation and regulatory arbitrage was a serious issue before and throughout the crisis. Before the crisis, banking groups would play regulatory regime and policies against each other and try to reach some kind of lowest common denominator throughout the region. Countless times we have heard the complaint “Why are you not allowing this, your neighbors do!”, and I’m sure others people in this room have heard it too. During the crisis, we experienced several cases of countries trying to seek individual solutions to common problems. While fully respecting the idiosyncrasies and different timing priorities of each country, I think we would all benefit from a more collegial approach to regulation.   On a national level, I believe the stress should be on supervision of Systemically Important Financial Institutions, with the right care not to create wrong perceptions related with moral hazard.
Stephen Cecchetti and colleagues at the IMF find that preventive macro-financial measures are much more effective than reactive measures in limiting the build-up of financial leverage in response to US monetary policy spillovers. [9] Foreign exchange interventions serve to limit exchange rate volatility and thereby mitigate financial market stresses arising from such volatility. They have been a useful tool for many emerging market economies to reduce unduly sharp swings in exchange rates as well as misalignment of the exchange rate with underlying fundamentals. But three caveats are in order. One, foreign exchange interventions tend to be more effective if they are large and in line with fundamentals and the monetary policy stance. [10] Two, policy credibility for such interventions requires having deep foreign reserves, which needs to be weighed against the cost of accumulating such reserves. Three, there is the danger of slipping into an over-reliance on such interventions to defend the level of the exchange rate. Capital flow management measures are used to directly curb capital inflows and outflows. While capital flow measures have distortionary effects and long-term costs, they have been deployed as useful complements to safeguard financial stability. Capital flow measures, more so than foreign exchange interventions, have been used in a proactive manner to prevent large capital flows in the first place and thereby reduce the risk of large and destabilising reversals of such flows. Capital flow measures have also been used together with macroprudential measures to moderate demand and asset price inflation in the property sector.

Speeches  Published Date: 26 May 2023  "Everything, Everywhere, All at Once: Securing Monetary and Financial Stability in an Interconnected World" - Opening Remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director, Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the 10th Asian Monetary Policy Forum on 26 May 2023 Professor Bernard Yeung, National University of Singapore Business School, and President of the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER) Professor Steven J Davis, University of Chicago, Hoover Institution, and EXCO Member of ABFER Distinguished speakers and guests, ladies and gentlemen GETTING IN ALL THE CRACKS OR TARGETING THE CRACKS? At the inaugural Asian Monetary Policy Forum in 2014, I spoke about the challenge of securing both price stability and financial stability. [1] Now, nearly ten years later, we know a lot more about this issue,yet there is still much we do not know. Let me take stock of where we are. To achieve both the objectives of price stability and financial stability, I described in 2014 three possible approaches for monetary policy. The first approach is to keep monetary policy focused on price stability and leave financial stability to microprudential regulation and supervision. Most advanced economies have stuck to this approach in the last ten years, with adjustments to countercyclical capital buffers as the sole macroprudential policy innovation. The second approach is to include financial stability in addition to price stability as an objective of monetary policy.
In light of this, the Bank of Albania has in the past years initiated a campaign to improve the financial education of the Albanian people. The recent results of our questionnaires indicate that the Albanian urban population shows increasing and a more complete knowledge related to various financial problems they encounter. But the results on rural areas reveal that the education level remains considerably lower. Second, the Albanian agricultural sector suffers from the lack of information and evaluation. As I noted above, one of the reasons why banks hesitate to increase their lending is the lack of complete information on farms and their products. Further, the quality certification standards for Albanian products remain low. One of the main reasons restricting higher exports and, consequently, higher production, is the lack of certification in accordance with the highest standards for all the Albanian agricultural products. This type of certification does not only prove the elementary food security required by the European markets, but also establishes a starting point for competition in the market. The presence of these standards at a reliable level would lead to the improvement of all market mechanisms, by helping bank lending in proportion to the quality of products. In the framework of concerns facing the agricultural sector, the Bank of Albania has increased its interest in microcredit institutions.

Over the recent years, the Bank of Thailand has built awareness of this risk in the public which has contributed to the natural adjustment of the market and therefore the slowdown of household debt 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  accumulation. Going forward, the Bank is proposing a national agenda to the government to promote financial literacy and discipline to ensure long-term stability in line with our own ongoing financial awareness projects. I have now talked about the central bank’s commitment to growth, price, and financial stability in order to support sustainable growth. Now that we are in recovery, minding the future risks to financial and price stability, and being in possession of stabilization tools tested and refined over time, the Monetary Policy Committee will carefully weigh the tradeoff between short-term growth and long-term risks and ensure that the economy will have enough financial ease to recover to sustainable growth. Ladies and Gentlemen, I would now like to move on to the second role of the Bank of Thailand: facilitating an expansion of the growth frontier. Keeping balance as described in the first part is achieved through the use of the Bank of Thailand’s tools in guarding economic stability. To allow stakeholders to move forward and capture new opportunities, the Bank of Thailand employs its other instruments to enhance financial sector efficiency and create a favorable financial environment for investment that would lead to higher productivity growth.
The Bank’s framework can be used to assess policy options and associated trade-offs, and to communicate policy decisions. Today, I will provide some tentative conclusions in order to spur further debate and analysis, including as part of the IMF’s work on its “Integrated Policy Framework” and the G20 discussions on the future of the financial architecture. Our core finding is that the distribution of capital flows will shift and change shape when there is a change in any of the three drivers – pull, push or pipes.5 In an interdependent world, everyone – advanced economies,  5 The Capital Flows-at-Risk model presented in chart 6 does not explicitly model ‘the pipes’. The impact of augmenting  the framework with pipes is shown later on in charts [15 and 16]. 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  emerging economies as well as the public and private sectors – is responsible for reducing capital flow volatility and increasing sustainable capital flows in order to meet the challenges of our age. Turning to the three drivers in more detail. Pull factors The conventional wisdom, prior to the financial crisis, was that the best contribution each country can do for itself and others would be to “keep its own house in order”.6 The foundations of that house are:   Credible inflation targeting regimes.

Pull, Push, Pipes: Sustainable Capital Flows for a New World Order Speech given by Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England  Institute of International Finance Spring Membership Meeting, Tokyo 6th June 2019  I am grateful to Daisy McGregor and Simon Whitaker for their assistance in preparing these remarks, and to Fernando Eguren Martin, Lukas von dem Berge, Carlos Van Hombeeck, Simon Lloyd, Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Nitya Aasaavari, Delma Essel, Sameeta Thakrar and Wayne Chapman for research and analysis. The research presented in this speech will be detailed in a forthcoming Bank of England working paper. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  It is a pleasure to be at the IIF. I would like to speak today about your raison d’etre: sustainable cross border capital flows. Capital flows can be an enormous force for good. For example, when my native Canada was an emerging economy, net capital inflows averaged 10% of GDP every year for around three decades. But the recent history of capital flows is more chequered. After all, the IIF was founded 36 years ago in response to the Latin American debt crisis. That crisis was the product of an initially well founded and productive – but ultimately over exuberant and destructive – recycling of petro dollars by the banking system. That period provided painful examples both of how capital flows can support development and how capital flow volatility can undermine it.
However, this does not mean they will not suffer contagion effects via the financial markets. Two weeks ago, the EU member states and the International Monetary Fund presented an aid package worth a total of EUR 750 billion to bail out EU countries with serious budget problems. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to make support purchases of government bonds. Hopefully, this will be sufficient to create and maintain confidence that the countries which have been hardest hit will actually be able to get their public finances on an even keel again. We will be following these developments very closely. Now, however, I am not intending to talk about the most recent financial market turmoil. What I intend to spend the next half hour or so talking about is an old debate theme that has been given new life during the crisis; should central banks use the interest rate to try to influence asset prices and credit growth? Should they try to prevent or alleviate imbalances that begin to grow, or wait until the bubble has burst and it is time to clean up the mess it has left behind? The crisis has changed many people’s views on monetary policy in this respect. Asset prices and “bubbles” The question of how monetary policy should relate to asset prices has been discussed for many years, not least by central banks and academics. Nor could one claim that there has been a lack of opinion – views that have often been diametrically opposed.

Afterwards it often appears fairly obvious that certain price movements were not rooted in reality. However, during an upturn phase in the economic cycle it is obviously easy to get carried along on a tide of optimism and leave common sense on the shore. Many may be pulled in by others acting as though the trend of large profits will continue – assuming that “so many” investors surely can’t be wrong, even though the fundamental forces indicate otherwise. An investor may also consider it costly to go against the tide and act on the basis of a view that does not appear to be shared by others. In this situation, being the one who points out that current developments are not sustainable and that the expectations are unrealistic may be rather like trying to stop a runaway train with your bare hands. At least, if one lacks the right tools. …the consequences can be severe when the bubble bursts. Not all bubbles that arise have serious consequences for the rest of the economy. So are there any common denominators in the worst scenario cases? Yes, these cases often involve a loan-financed price upswing in the property market that has accelerated at an untenable rate over a long period of time. And when this kind of bubble bursts, it almost always does so with a bang rather than with a whimper.
4  ECB (2015), Financial Stability Review, May 2015. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  3. The regulatory challenge As I said, however, CMU is for the longer-term. For the medium-term, SME financing in the euro area will still mainly come from banks. So we need to make sure that there are no unnecessary obstacles to that process. And this brings me to the third challenge facing banks – the regulatory challenge. The regulatory agenda since the crisis has no doubt been essential. Banks had too little capital, too much short-term funding, too high leverage, and created too great a cost for society when they failed. The reforms that have been introduced so far have increased resilience and, in extremis, made banks less costly to resolve. And there is no reason why this should, in principle, diminish the ability of banks to serve the real economy – research suggests, for example, that higher bank capital has no negative impact on lending. 5 But as new regulation accumulates, we know that it can also come with costs as well. In the economics jargon, policymakers always have to be watchful that, in attempting to internalise externalities, they do not inadvertently create new externalities. The possible risks can be summarised under the headings of complexity, clarity and consistency. As regulations have built up since 2009, they have tended to introduce more complexity, and with that comes an inevitable cost in terms of compliance.

26.07.2022  Inflation and growth: economic policy challenges* Encuentro Foros de Vanguardia Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  *lEnglish translation from de original in Spanish  Good afternoon. It is a pleasure for me to participate in this event, organised by La Vanguardia. I would like to take this opportunity to explain the ECB’s most recent monetary policy decisions, in particular those we adopted last Thursday. Let me first frame those decisions in the context of the current macroeconomic scenario and the inflationary episode. To conclude my address, I will also briefly describe the role that other economic policies can play in addressing the current challenges. The macroeconomic context The current context is one of extraordinary uncertainty. Economic activity in the euro area is slowing, weighed down by the war in Ukraine. The economy is being adversely affected by the impact on firms of rising energy and commodity costs and the effects of high inflation on households’ purchasing power, along with the persistent supply-side constraints, supply chain disruptions and heightened uncertainty. To illustrate this point, according to the flash figure published last week, in July the euro area composite output PMI was down by 2.6 points to 49.4, putting it in contractionary territory (below 50 points) for the first time since February 2021.1 Overall, these factors are casting a considerable shadow over the outlook for the second half of 2022 and the longer term.
Uncertainty in theory Our forecasting ability is thus very limited one year ahead and almost non-existent two and three years ahead. The best forecast we can then make is normally to assume that inflation will be 2 per cent in two and three years’ time. But that is not much help when shaping monetary policy. At the same time it is reasonable to assume that monetary policy will actually affect inflation two and three years ahead and that we therefore need forecasts as a basis for monetary policy. So what can we do to manage the uncertainty in monetary policy? In a linear model, where inflation depends on the interest rate and an uncertainty term with a mean value of zero, where the parameters are known and constant, and with a quadratic objective function (loss function), the uncertainty does not matter with regard to which interest rate should be chosen to minimise the loss function.10 It is enough to take into  8  Prior to 2007 we first based the forecasts on a constant repo rate and then on estimated market expectations. It is possible that we could have made better forecasts with a different interest rate assumption. To be able to comment more strongly on forecasting ability, one should actually base the calculations on longer periods of time. One should also compare with the historical series available at the time the forecasts were made. 9  The figure is based on the period 2005–2010. 10  See, for instance, L.E.O.

This is the approach that minimizes costs for economic activity and for the society at large, contributing to consolidate a sound, efficient, and fair economic structure. Thanks for your attention! 2  BIS Review 108/2008
MAS regulations for the financial sector are benchmarked to global standards. Over the years, we have updated our requirements to keep them current and relevant. 14. But regulations are defined sets of rules and requirements. They cannot possibly cover all situations and every manner of activity or behaviour; to try to do so would require ominous amounts of prescriptive and narrow rules that are neither feasible nor practical. So regulators worldwide including ourselves have to consider carefully how to put in place workable rules: having the appropriate regulations that cover the requirements under the FATF standards while taking into account any practical challenges of implementation, operational inefficiencies and unintended consequences. 15. This leads me to the second element of our framework – Supervision. It is one thing to have a set of workable rules and regulations. It is another thing to have the requirements clearly understood and complied with. No amount of regulations will be effective if the quality of implementation is poor or if financial institutions (FIs) are not vigilant. 16. The MAS has in recent years stepped up our AML offsite reviews and onsite supervision of financial institutions. Our supervisory intensity is necessarily risk-based given that both regulators and the regulated entities work within finite constraints of resources and time. Therefore, we have adopted various risk bucketing metrics so that we can be targeted on more vulnerable areas.

Ong Chong Tee: Observations and thoughts from a financial regulator’s perspective Keynote address by Mr Ong Chong Tee, Deputy Managing Director (Financial Supervision) of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) 9th Annual Anti-Money Laundering & Financial Crime Conference, Singapore, 24 April 2017. * * * 1. Good morning. Mr Timothy McClinton, President and CEO of the Association of Certified AntiMoney Laundering Specialists (ACAMS); Ms Hue Dang, CAMS-Audit Head of Asia; Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen. I am delighted to join you in this 9th Annual Anti-Money Laundering & Financial Crime Conference in Asia Pacific. 2. I like to commend ACAMS’s leadership and your membership for the extensive work on training and various outreach programmes relating to financial crime detection and prevention. Many of you are specialists and experts in this area. But as Malcolm Forbes once said: one definition of an expert would be someone who knows enough of a subject to know that he does not know how much he does not know. Fora such as this are therefore beneficial for collective learning and sharing, to plug knowledge gaps and to exchange perspectives. 3. Allow me to share some observations and thoughts this morning from a financial regulator’s perspective. 4. For some years now, the global community has been stepping up our efforts to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. The integrity and stability of the international financial system must not be exploited by those who engage in criminal activities. 5.