Chart 7 Medium-term cycle in real GDP and credit (US)  Source: Bank calculations. The same broad patterns are evident in the data when moving from credit to asset (equity and house) prices in the UK and US (Charts 8–9). A clear financial cycle is evident in both these series, distinct from the typical business cycle in its amplitude as well as frequency. 12  BIS Review 168/2010  The peak to trough variation in asset prices is, if anything, greater than for credit: around 40 percentage points for equities and around 15 percentage points for house prices over medium-term horizons in the UK. Charts 10 and 11 demonstrate those differences, plotting medium-term frequency cycles in GDP and asset prices in the UK and US since 1945. Chart 8 Medium-term cyclical fluctuation in UK real equity and house prices  Source: Bank calculations. Chart 9 Medium-term cyclical fluctuation in US real equity and house prices  Source: Bank calculations. BIS Review 168/2010  13  Chart 10 Medium-term frequency cycles in GDP and asset prices in the UK  Source: Bank calculations. Chart 11 Medium-term frequency cycles in GDP and asset prices in the US  Source: Bank calculations. 14  BIS Review 168/2010  In Annex 2 we show results for the other 10 countries, applying the same techniques to real GDP and real credit. Although the cycles are sometimes not as regular, the same general cyclical patterns in output and credit are present using the wider panel of countries.

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