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Table 1  The fiscal rule was drawn up in 2001. Today, the situation is different. In 2001, a real return on the Fund of 4 percent, or a little higher, based on the then prevailing distribution between equities and bonds, was a reasonable assumption. Today, calculations yield a lower figure for expected real return. 1 The real return on bonds in the Fund’s portfolio can now be estimated at 1 percent. With a normal risk premium on equities, the real return on the whole Fund can be quantified at 3 percent. There is a possibility that the real return will be higher, but it may also be lower. If we spend more than the annual return on the Fund, we will be eating into the savings portion. The conclusion is that a more robust approach would now be to base fiscal policy on an annual expected real return on the Fund of 3 percent. Such an adjustment would underpin the main principles that were behind the establishment of the fiscal rule – stability and sustainability. 1  8  See Norges Bank Staff Memo 6/2012. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 8  In 2011 the structural non-oil budget deficit was about 3 percent, which is close to such a new path. Adapting petroleum revenue spending to a lower expected return should not therefore be particularly demanding. If we wait, a necessary policy adjustment later could be far more painful.