samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The CBC is governed by the principle of transparency in exercising its public function, enshrined in Article 8 of the Constitution, the bylaws of its own Constitutional Organic Act and the relevant legislation that has expressly included the CBC, such as Law No 20285 on Access to Public Information (2009), Law No 20730, which regulates the lobbying and management of private interests (2014), and Law No 20880 on public service probity (2016). Still, the Board has added several transparency standards that go beyond the aforementioned norms. For example, last March we made available to the public a total of 96 minutes of past monetary policy meetings held during the period 2000-2007, a practice that will continue into the future years. We have also included as passive subjects of transparency all division directors, area managers and heads of departments that may have relevant decision-making powers, and we have supplemented the obligations of the Lobby Law with the publication on the CBC’s website the weekly agenda of the Governor and all Board members. In addition, we have established an external Audit and Compliance Committee and an internal reporting channel to denounce situations of harassment or abuse. From the perspective of using the powers inherent to an autonomous institution to strengthen transparency in more specific areas that are not covered by general legislation, the CBC is preparing some additional initiatives to implement over the next twelve months. One, we want to raise the levels of information and guidance we give to the community regarding monetary policy decisions.

As I said at the beginning, the annual variation of the Consumer Price Index excluding Food and Energy (CPIEFE)—our measure of core inflation that deletes the prices of food and energy from the CPI—has remained below 2%, with annual inflation still negative for goods and persistently around 3% for services. The CPI has approached 3%, mainly driven by the behavior of the more volatile prices (Figure 9). The peso depreciation has an effect on the revision of the short-term inflation outlook. By the end of this year, the annual variation of the CPIEFE is forecast to be at 2.7% (2.3% in June) and that of the CPI, at 3.1% (2.8% in June). Once both indicators converge to 3% during 2019, they will remain in the neighborhood until the end of the projection horizon (Figure 10). It is very likely that in September the annual CPI inflation rate will be temporarily above 3%, because of the low basis for comparison left by the unusual behavior of some foodstuffs in 2017. Regarding monetary policy, we think that the evolution of macroeconomic conditions makes it less necessary to maintain the current monetary stimulus. Therefore, our working assumption for the MPR is that it will begin to increase in the coming months and by 2020 it will stand near its neutral level—ie. between 4% and 4.5%. This assumption is not essentially different from the forecast a few months ago, as it implies gradual increases in the policy rate associated with the recovery of the domestic economy.
15.02.2017  Appearance by the Governor of the Banco de España Parliamentary Committee for the Monitoring and Assessment of the Toledo Pact Agreements Luis M. Linde Governor  Ladies and Gentlemen, I appear before this Committee for the Monitoring and Assessment of the Toledo Pact Agreements to present the Banco de España’s analysis of the current status of and outlook for our public pensions system and its reform. The analysis is in a paper recently published by the Banco de España and takes a technical approach. This means we have attempted not to enter into political considerations, though these prove difficult to avoid when it comes to choosing one or more of the different reform options available. I shall begin with some thoughts on the recent developments in our public pensions system, moving on to the medium- and long-term outlook, and concluding with some general comments on possible reforms. Drawing on the final annual figures for 2015, the Social Security System deficit stood at 1.5% of GDP, in contrast to the surplus of 1.4 % of GDP posted at the start of the crisis. The information on the budget outturn for last year, 2016, suggests that this deficit will have increased. Analysing the source of this deterioration, we can conclude that it came about essentially owing to the increase in expenditure, which rose as a proportion of GDP by 3.9 pp from 2007 to 2015 to 13%, while revenue expressed as a proportion of GDP increased by 0.9 pp.

Overall it has, in practice, proved difficult to identify what impact deflation of goods and services prices, of itself, may have had on activity. In general, however, because the degree of downward wage flexibility in Hong Kong is probably greater than elsewhere, the economy is believed to be better able than others to cope with this type of deflationary pressure and to avoid severe distributional disequilibria. Deflation of asset prices is a rather different issue. We have certainly experienced some negative wealth effects, particularly on household expenditure, as a result of the sharp drop in property prices. One factor enabling Hong Kong to live with deflation perhaps better than some other economies is the resilience of the banking system and its ability to cope with debt deflation. A long tradition of fairly conservative prudential oversight of the banks has left them strong enough to weather the recession. Although we have demonstrated that we can live with deflation, a modest positive rate of inflation might nevertheless be preferred to our current modest negative rate. And it would certainly be desirable to avoid gyrations of property prices of the sort which have brought such a sharp deflation there in recent years. However, we do not regard the exchange rate as a viable instrument for trying to dispel deflation. We would not consider it worthwhile sacrificing our long track record of disciplined monetary stability for that purpose.
According to some, in the past few years alone Hong Kong has been diagnosed with a whole collection of terminal diseases brought by the handover in 1997, the recent regional financial crisis, the “threat” not just from Shanghai but also from Seoul, Singapore and Sydney, the high cost of doing business, declining educational standards, worsening pollution and, believe it or not, too stable a currency as well, and a whole host of other factors. The impending “catastrophe” of China’s entry into the WTO is the latest spectre on the horizon, and no doubt when that one passes without incident more demons will be conjured up. Yet, in this moribund state, we are still managing to struggle along with GDP growth - projected for this year - of 8.5% and export growth at double-digit rates in recent quarters. The World Bank projections on the effects of WTO entry - a doubling in the space of five years of China’s share in international trade (which is itself projected to grow at the rate of about 6% per annum) - suggests that the business “creation effect” stimulated by WTO accession will far outweigh the “diversion effect”. There should, in brief, be more than enough work to keep both Shanghai and Hong Kong busy for a long time to come, and more than enough skill and enterprise available in both cities to enable each to focus on the opportunities that WTO entry will bring.

Surely many of us would find it intensely irritating to go back to needing a laptop to check our bank balance rather than doing it through the app on our phones, or indeed – if we jump another generation back – to have to go into a branch to arrange a payment, although branches are still very important for many 3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  3  customers. Regulation should not block these advances, and should actively keep pace with them – for instance we need to have the ability to adapt the calibration of liquidity regulations if it turns out that app-based deposit outflows have a different shape from branch-based ones. And as new players emerge we need to make sure that our regulation is not creating unnecessary barriers to entry and thereby impeding healthy competition. But sometimes the system adapts for bad reasons – the profit motive drives firms to find the weaker parts of the system and channel business into them. We need to be sufficiently fleet of foot to respond to these shifts before they create serious problems – in short, regulation should be future-facing and keep fit for purpose. 5. Consistency. Firms and the public need to be confident that the regulatory framework is stable, that prudential rules are based on clear evidence, and that supervisory judgements are impartial and consistent.
When they do so, it is also inevitable for them to base their conclusions on personal biases, fears and prejudices they have been harbouring in their minds. Such conclusions are tainted by biased or prejudiced views held by the person making the conclusions. Hence, such findings are simply an imposition of personal views on the society and, therefore, fail to explain reality and Nature. Therefore, discoveries made in that manner do not enhance the human knowledge. In this background, it is necessary to build the knowledge base of mankind free from biases, fears and prejudices. This could be attained by pursuing scientific inquiry which bases itself on a set of principles, guidelines and an ethical and moral code that discipline the  BIS Review 161/2008  1  researchers. It should, however, be noted that the conclusions derived through scientific inquiry are not static and permanent. The very nature of scientific inquiry is that conclusions derived from a given research study, as Karl Popper pointed out, should be capable of being refuted by a new inquiry. Hence, results produced by scientific research carry with them the property of refutability and are valid only until a new research study would replace them with new results. In this sense, the knowledge base developed through scientific inquiry could be equated to a reservoir from which water would flow out and fresh water would flow in continuously. But the core knowledge, just like the permanently stored water in the reservoir, would remain intact.

During the interval they have an encounter with Global’s friend from the time he was a student. It turns out that he recently got married and his wife used to work with Global on a project several years ago. They decide to go for a drink together. Using their communicators they choose a cosy restaurant next to the theatre and book a table. After the performance they are all in great mood, and recall the beginning of the 21st century with amusement. The waiter discreetly charges Global’s non-contact e-wallet for actually ordered dishes. John can easily accept the payments after he comes back home. Global registers all transaction details in his financial organizer build into the communicator. Thanks to it he can track and analyze his transactions and schedule expenses. He is fully in control of his finances. His personal communicator receives financial operations on an ongoing basis, and confirms or accepts them. Once a weak it receives a financial e-analysis drawing Global’s attention to offers better tailored to his appetite for risk and lifestyle. Small hours. Mr. and Mrs. Global are coming back home. Why have I told you this story? Why does a central banker tell stories about future instead of delivering a 30-minute speech of the success achieved by the National Bank of Poland and its partners in building a safe, efficient and modern payment infrastructure in Poland? The reason for this is that we have to prepare for the future.
An economy being a living organism, it is only natural for inflation to hover around 4%, that is, slightly higher or slightly lower on any given day. This figure may appear as early as this year. This is a completely normal situation, without any indication of risk whatsoever. This is the way it should be. Risks may emerge only if we see either a substantial or lengthy deviation in the rate of inflation in either direction from the 4% target. 4 / 14  BIS central bankers' speeches  You will recall that in the early days of inflation targeting this range was defined as 4% plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. We rejected this range, for the following reason: we did this because both analysts and market players were of the opinion that we were aiming for a point outside the middle of this band, with expectations tending towards its upper limit. We decided to put the plug on this scheme and make known our intentions to ensure a sustainable downward movement in the rate of inflation towards the target. However, we leave open the possibility for this variation range to be reinstated once we have hit our 4% inflation target. Such a range exists in many economies, and it is open to variation. I think this issue will be on our agenda this autumn as we develop our Monetary Policy Guidelines; at this time we will look into the need for this range and its potential impact on our communication policy. Thank you.

DBS is already facing this pressure – the public is upset that some branches have been closed, but analysts and investors are criticising DBS for not rationalising the branch network and extracting cost synergies fast enough. Furthermore, as banks focus more on returns, they will tend to concentrate on the middle and upper segments of the market, where they can sell a wider range of services and earn better margins. However, if all banks neglect small depositors, this would cause a problem to lower income Singaporeans, in a society that is increasingly cashless. Other jurisdictions like the US and Australia also face the same problem, and either have implemented or are studying requirements for basic banking accounts. In the State of New York, banks are required by legislation to provide such accounts, while in some other US states the banks have voluntarily offered such services so as to avoid the heavy hand of legislation. Banks have to be allowed to recover their costs, just like utilities and public transport companies. But they should not simply opt out of the responsibility to service the mass market. The Government will therefore ensure that in this competitive environment, low-income Singaporeans continue to have access to basic banking services at affordable prices. This is not an immediate problem, even after consolidation among the local banks. DBS already has an obligation to play a social role, and service the mass market, because that was a condition of the sale of POSBank to DBS.
The fact that the European market is much more segmented than the North American market reduces the efficiency within the EU. Competition could be improved further throughout the whole of the EU. This is one of the areas where efforts will be made to contribute to improving productivity and growth within the EU to make the union one of the world's most competitive economies in 2010. At the moment, there remains much work to be done before this goal, which was established at the Lisbon meeting in 2000, can be achieved. Some small steps forward were taken at the Barcelona meeting last month. For instance, the countries agreed to open up the electricity and gas markets to corporate customers in 2004 and to open up the common air space by 2004. The single currency, the euro, could lead to stiffer competition as it will be easier for consumers and companies to compare prices of consumer goods and input goods in different countries when they are expressed in the same currency. The EMU could in the long term be expected to increase trade and integration between the member states. The studies that have been made indicate varying effects on trade from EMU membership for Sweden. Berkeley Professor Andrew K. Rose has estimated that Sweden's trade could increase by 30-50 per cent over the space of a few decades, which would lead to an increase in Swedish welfare of more than ten per cent in the long term.

10  Government Bill 01/02:167, "Changes in the Competition Act for more efficient combating of cartels, etc.". BIS Review 25/2002  5  registered in a special product register containing information on the exact contents also hampers import competition as most other countries do not have such registers. The fact that the Swedish market is small means that it is not economically viable for foreign manufacturers to make the adaptation required by Swedish rules or legislation. The existence of recycling systems for cans and bottles also makes import competition more difficult in the soft drinks market (soft drinks are approximately 40 per cent more expensive in Sweden than the rest of the EU). The fact that requirements motivated by concern for the environment could impede competition does not, of course, mean that they should be abolished. On the other hand, this is a good argument for coordinating the various regulatory systems in Europe. The bank sector  As I am today speaking to people who work in the bank sector, I thought I would take the opportunity to say a few words on competitive conditions in this sector. The bank sector was characterised by extensive regulations right up until the mid-1980s, which acted as an impediment to dynamic development in this sector. Few new operators could enter and competitive pressure was fairly low. However, the deregulation that has occurred since then has radically changed this picture.
While this implies that a one-size-fits-all level of transparency is unlikely to exist, a number of economic forces are omnipresent and therefore allow us to draw some conclusions from the academic literature on post-trade transparency. In those market segments that the MiFID II review aims to address, liquidity providers play a central role as they intermediate between end investors and thereby help to secure a wellfunctioning marketplace. Yet an efficient and resilient market requires a sufficient level of competition. Several studies6 show that a lack of transparency can be a serious threat to a level playing field because intermediaries may use their private knowledge of customer order flow as an informational advantage that allows them to exert market power. Therefore,  3  See opinion of the ECB of 25 January 2012 on a proposal for a Directive on the access to the activity of credit institutions and the prudential supervision of credit institutions and investment firms and a proposal for a Regulation on prudential requirements for credit institutions and investment firms (CON/2012/5). 4  In particular the Money Market Contact Group, the newly established Bond Market Contact Group, the Foreign Exchange Contact Group and the Operations Managers Contact Group (see the ECB website for more information on these groups).

This should include “an IMF standing liquidity facility.’’ The global financial safety net is the best insurance we can get against the risks created by economic divergence and it comes at a limited cost. ** So, in conclusion, we as central bankers should be predictable without being pre-committed. In other words, we should give clarity without pretending to certainty. Voltaire summed this up nicely in 1770: “Doubt is an uncomfortable condition, but certainty is a ridiculous one.”4 In these times of doubt, the Governing Council of the ECB is committed to give as much clarity as possible; clarity, not certainty, which is neither possible nor desirable. Thank you for your attention. 1 Brainard, W. (1967), « Uncertainty and the effectiveness of policy » the American Economic Review, Vol. 57, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, May, pp. 411–425. 2 Blinder, A. (1999), Central Banking in Theory and Practice, the Lionel Robbins lectures, MIT Press, Cambridge  Massachusetts. 3 Rey, H. (2013) “Dilemma not Trilemma: The global financial cycle and monetary policy independence”, Jackson  Hole conference proceedings, Kansas City Fed. 4 Letter to Frederick William, Prince of Prussia (28 November 1770). 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
The truth is that after several quarters have passed since these shocks occurred and the Central Bank has made a very significant adjustment in monetary policy, high inflation continues. Moreover, core inflation, the part that best reflects local trends and pressures, has stabilized at high levels and, I must say, bringing important surprises into our projections. The natural question that arises is why is this happening? and why is inflation taking so long to come down? 58. On the one hand, it is very clear that the string of shocks we faced was very unusual. They were very big in magnitude and had a concatenation that exacerbated their effects. On 9  the other hand, there were the accumulated cost pressures on companies, the volatility of different macroeconomic variables, such as the exchange rate, and a scenario where uncertainty was high for a long period of time. To these elements must be added indexation and other second-round factors that add persistence to the inflationary effects of the mentioned shocks, as has been highlighted in previous reports. This confirms that a very important element behind this stubborn inflation is that the economy has failed to reverse the impact of the spending excesses that accumulated in earlier years. As I said a while ago, the data for the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 show that private consumption is receding, but at a slower pace than expected.

Although the size of this particular scheme is limited, one hopes that it can be expanded and emulated by other banks. Such programmes are a prime example of the banking sector fulfilling its role of promoting economic growth by providing the necessary low cost funding, while at the same time contributing to the profits of the bank. It is worth noting also that competitiveness does not depend only on costs; as the crisis has reminded us, financial stability is equally essential. In Ireland for example, it was the poor governance and risky credit practices of commercial banks that drove the country into the crisis, even though the competitiveness indicators were very positive. Generally speaking, Maltese banking is run on a prudential and cautious business model and this is particularly true of the systematically-relevant banks, which manifest for example a low loan-to-deposit ratio. Nevertheless, we have stepped up our efforts, jointly with the MFSA, to ensure that the soundness of the banking system is not only preserved but also enhanced. The Joint Financial Stability Board between the Central Bank and the MFSA has contributed to major initiatives, notably amendments to the Banking Rules 09 and 12. These amendments will improve the overall coverage ratio and strengthen provisioning practices. They also boost bank capital and reserves to mitigate potential risks from lending portfolios. The amendments also address the risks arising from banks’ concentration in the real estate sector.