The monetary policy “normalization” period was proved to be short-lived as major central banks decided to delay or reverse their normalization paths in response to the global slowdown resulting from trade conflicts. Excess liquidity created in this low-for-long environment has led to at least two areas of vulnerabilities. Overleveraging of businesses The first area of vulnerability is the overleveraging of businesses. According to the recent IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report, corporate debt has spurred in recent years. In the event of a global economic downturn that is half as severe as the one spurred by the Global Financial Crisis, the IMF estimated that almost 40 percent of corporate debt—approximately 19 trillion USD—could be at risk of defaulting, exceeding the levels seen during the last crisis. In Thailand, we could observe high leverage in many business segments. Some firms even take on debts to buy back their equities from shareholders, thereby reducing their equity base. Moreover, some large corporations have increasingly engaged in new investment outside their core businesses, making risk assessments challenging. 8  In this rapidly changing world, the path ahead is filled with risks and uncertainties that may affect businesses’ revenue and cash flows. Businesses need to ensure appropriate capital structure. Having too much debt will heighten financial vulnerability and could amplify the effects of adverse shocks. Importantly, while debt is necessary for investment and financing through debt is especially enticing in this low interest rate environment, an appropriate level of equity must be preserved to ensure sufficient cushion for adverse events.

Aging population will introduce a dramatic change to the consumer market. But this is also an opportunity: the domestic market for the seniors will become larger. In 2017, consumption of Thai population older than 50 is worth 2.8 trillion baht or around 18 percent of the GDP. This will only continue to grow, creating a large niche market for businesses. Realizing this will open doors for many opportunities ahead. The demand for products focused on senior lifestyles such as orthopedic shoes and anti-slip floorings will grow. Huge opportunities also lie in health-conscious products such as organic produce, food supplements, and low-sodium diets, where Thailand’s welldeveloped food industry could give us a solid foundation. Being one of the first countries to become an aging society will also give us a head start to develop new businesses that would help address the needs of the elderlies, and expand to other markets abroad that will soon become aging societies as well. According to the UN, ten percent of the world population will be older than 65 five years from now, with more than 200 million living in China. Medical tourism industry, for example, need to take advantage of Thailand’s established foundation and scale up to serve the needs of broader spectrum of senior travelers from all over the globe. In addition to demographic change in the Thai market, we should also look at demographic changes at the global level. Outside of Thailand, demographic changes mean more than just an aging society.