samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As we all know, there was a “golden era” for nitrate between the years 1880 and 1930, where thanks to our resources and the external demand, Chile increased strongly its international trade, obtained large amounts of fiscal resources and was able to take a leap forward. Our economy’s nitrate dependence is visible in the proportion of fiscal resources that came from this sector (figure 4). This is the typical case where high earnings coming from natural resources create incentives to reduce the other taxes, placing the economy in great fiscal vulnerability, as it later occurred. Thus, when the golden era ended, the public external debt skyrocketed (from 28% of GDP in 1929 to 221% in 1932) and the economy suffered a severe contraction (figure 5), which was also fostered by the Great Depression. We can also see the negative effects of natural resource dependence if we compare the behaviors of nitrate, copper, and output. The fluctuations of nitrate output value had an enormous effect on GDP, with a correlation of 0.66 (figure 6). This is quite different nowadays, with a correlation between growth in copper output value and GDP of 0.05 (figure 7). Summing up, the review of the international evidence allow us to state that our abundant copper has been a positive contribution to the Chilean economic growth and welfare, which is reinforced by institutional and economic strengths that prevent the distortions that natural resource abundance could have on the economy.

Third, despite record low mortgage interest rates, the depressed housing market remains a significant impediment.1 While house prices are no longer overvalued by historical standards, restrictions on access to credit and the large number of homes in the foreclosure pipeline means that home prices remain under downward pressure. The ongoing weakness in housing makes achieving a vigorous economic recovery more difficult for several reasons:   The strong rebound in housing construction and related activities, such as furniture sales, that typically power economic recoveries following deep recessions is absent.   The decline in home prices has eroded household wealth, which then inhibits consumer spending. Since home values peaked in 2006, homeowners have lost more than half their home equity and many expect further declines.   The weakness in home prices has reduced credit availability because many households and small businesses use their homes as their primary source of collateral for loans. 1  See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2012 White Paper, “The U.S. Housing Market: Current Conditions and Policy Considerations” and “Housing and the Economic Recovery” by William Dudley. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches    The big drop in house prices has made it more difficult for borrowers to refinance, undercutting some of monetary policy’s ability to support demand. In a recent speech I discussed some policy interventions that could help to stabilize the housing market. I will not discuss this further as our focus today is on education.
Thus, at this juncture, it is prudent to consider a wide range of indicators of labor market activity to better gauge the overall health of the labor market. In the press conference following the March FOMC meeting, Chair Janet Yellen indicated that, in addition to focusing on the official unemployment rate, the Committee considers a wide range of data in assessing labor market conditions. 4 These include quit rates, layoffs and a variety of wage measures, as well as broader measures of unemployment that include discouraged workers and those who would like to work more hours. 5 Generally, the evidence points to a still weak labor market. We still have some ways to go to reach our employment mandate. Below target on 2 percent inflation goal, too Let’s now turn to our price stability mandate. No one can doubt that we are undershooting our 2 percent target. Total PCE prices rose just 0.9 percent over the past 12 months; that is a substantial and serious miss. And, as the bull’s-eye chart shows, this undershooting has persisted for several years. Compounding these difficulties, below-target inflation is a  4  Federal Open Market Committee (2014b). 5  For example, the broadest measure of the unemployment rate, U-6, includes those workers who are marginally attached and those working part-time for economic reasons. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  worldwide phenomenon and it is difficult to be confident that all policymakers around the world have fully taken its challenge onboard.

Unclear international developments – unclear conditions for monetary policy There is greater geopolitical uncertainty in our immediate area than there has been for a long time. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine could escalate, trigger more far-reaching sanctions, put further downward pressure on demand in parts of Europe and push energy prices up or down. We are monitoring developments closely, taking note of other analysts’ assessments and working with different scenarios, but it is of course difficult to assess the probability of an escalating conflict and to quantify what potential effects it might have. Another uncertainty factor concerns the situation in the euro-area banking sector. The European Central Bank’s review of banks’ assets (Asset Quality Review) and accompanying stress tests, which will be published soon, can strengthen confidence in the banks and thereby hopefully give new vitality to the banking sector, which has so far hampered a muchneeded recovery through restrained credit granting and high interest rates on bank loans. But the problems in the Portuguese, Bulgarian and Austrian banks that have surfaced over the summer imply that some problems remain and there is a risk that the review will either point to extensive problems or be perceived as insufficient. Another extremely important condition for monetary policy in Sweden is the shape that monetary policy abroad will take and what effects it will have on growth, inflation and exchange rates.
The model seeks to take account of many of the important relationships in the Norwegian economy. The model combines and takes account of empirical and theoretical knowledge of these relationships as they have functioned in the past, and contributes to a more consistent analysis of the interaction between them. It takes time for structural changes to be captured in the model. It may therefore be useful to analyse the effects of any structural changes in previously existing relationships. For example, it may be useful to ask whether the effects on consumer prices of changes in the exchange rate are different now that the exchange rate fluctuates more than it did in the past. In our experience it is not possible to make forecasts that prove to be accurate in all respects. By revealing errors, we provide a basis for improving the analysis. Our projections are therefore evaluated regularly. Analyses of forecast errors have been presented four times in the journal Economic Bulletin. Excerpts from these evaluation articles are also presented in the Inflation Report once a year. Concluding remarks In all countries with which it is natural to compare Norway, the setting of interest rates, the most important monetary policy instrument, is delegated to the central bank. A number of factors help to explain why the exercise of this authority is delegated.

Michael Gondwe: 50 years of central banking in Zambia – repositioning for the future Speech by Dr Michael Gondwe, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the official launch of the 50th anniversary celebrations of the Bank of Zambia, Lusaka, 10 May 2014. *  *  *  •  Deputy Governor – Administration  •  Senior Directors and Directors  •  Representatives from Commercial banks  •  Members of Staff and Former Members of Staff Present  •  Members of the Press  •  Ladies and Gentlemen  I would like to extend a warm welcome to you all on behalf of the Bank of Zambia and indeed on my own behalf, to the official launch of the Bank of Zambia’s 50th Anniversary Celebrations, since its establishment on 7th August 1964. The theme for the Bank of Zambia’s jubilee celebrations is “50 Years of Central Banking: Repositioning for the Future”. This is indeed a momentous year for our country, as it will also mark the commemoration of Zambia’s Golden Jubilee. Distinguished Colleagues, the Bank of Zambia has during the last 50 years gone through different phases of transformation and development. I am proud to say that the Bank has, from the time of establishment in August 1964, matured into an institution whose roles have changed to respond to the growing and changing demands of an emerging economy and deal with complexities of globalisation.
We support the IMF in scaling-up its work on the macro-critical implications of climate change, digitalization, poverty alleviation, youth employment, and inclusiveness in general. We look forward to the successful conclusion of a new general SDR allocation of $ billion and encourage the Fund to work on options for voluntary reallocations of SDRs for the benefit of poorer members. We welcome the doubling of the New Arrangements to Borrow, as well as the renewal of the Bilateral Borrowing Agreements to meet the members’ high and growing overall demand for Fund resources and the shift towards UCT arrangements. We welcome the work on the 16th General Review of Quotas and reaffirm our commitment to a strong, quota-based, and adequately resourced IMF at the center of the global financial safety net. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches

Article 9 of the new NBL defines a wider scope of possible transactions. This allows the National Bank to further optimise the structure of its investments with a view to specific central bank needs. As part of this process, we are also evaluating the possibility of enlarging the investment universe. However, such an extension would raise a number of fundamental questions that will first need to be examined. Before the new law enters into force, we will establish and publish investment policy directives setting out how the Governing Board plans to make use of the extended investment policy scope. While our assets have already been managed largely in conformity with the principles of modern asset management, improvements were nevertheless called for. It was essential to bring our internal investment and risk control processes into line with the new legal framework. The opportunities for diversification brought about by additional investment instruments would, in principle, reduce the market risk of the investments. At the same time, though, the SNB would incur new risks, e.g. additional credit risks. In addition, corporate governance is to be enhanced. The primary goal is to segregate powers as far as possible: firstly between monetary policy and investment policy operations, secondly between investment strategy and its implementation through asset management, and thirdly between risk taking and risk controlling. There are limits to the principle of segregation of powers insofar as the Governing Board is responsible both for monetary policy and investment policy.
Last but not least, rules and principles for economic policy were introduced in Norway, as in other countries, to prevent policy decisions based on shorter-term considerations and shifting preferences. The Norwegian economist Finn Kydland, who is from my home district of Rogaland, received the Nobel Prize in economics for his study showing that economic  4  BIS Review 109/2010  performance can be improved if policymakers can commit to a pre-established set of credible policy rules. 7 Four pillars were established in the 1990s and in 2001 to stabilise economic developments: •  the petroleum fund mechanism  •  the fiscal rule  •  a floating exchange rate  •  inflation targeting  This system was introduced in response to the sharp upturns and downturns in the economy over the first twenty years of the Norwegian oil age. As a result of the petroleum fund mechanism, a greater share of government petroleum revenues is invested abroad. This curbs the impact of oil price fluctuations on demand and output – as well as on inflation and the exchange rate. The rules for the investment of these oil revenues prevent individuals or groups from gaining strong control over Norway’s oil wealth. The fiscal rule for the central government budget states that petroleum revenue spending shall be limited to the return on the funds invested abroad. This provides for a gradual phasing-in of oil revenues and a rate of spending that can be sustained for several generations.

In the 1930s, the British economist Lionel Robbins stated that:  1  In Agnar Sandmo (2006): “Samfunnsøkonomi – En idéhistorie (Economics – a history of ideas)”, Universitetsforlaget, p. 224. BIS Review 109/2010  1  “Economics is the study of the use of scarce resources that have alternative uses”. 2 This definition may seem rather abstract – and does not perhaps capture aspects of the subject that are important today. To illustrate the breadth and application of the subject, an alternative may be to list some of the questions that an economist can contribute to elucidating or provide a decision-making basis for. The issues of relevance today may for example include the following:   Is it economically profitable to build a power line through Hardanger? How should we weigh the value of untouched nature against the cost of using alternative power supply systems?   How can CO2 emissions be reduced while minimising the impact on living standards and employment? While engineers have valuable knowledge about the technological aspects, economists can analyse how pricing and taxation can be used to reduce emissions    What are the consequences of increasing oil revenue spending in Norway? Over the past 10–20 years, a theme at the forefront of economic policy debate in Norway has been how fast we should spend petroleum revenues. Both gas and oil are nonrenewable resources and this places the management of these resources in a particular position. How can we ensure that many generations benefit from this wealth?
The policy response to alleviate crisis resolution has covered all three aspects involved: domestic adjustment, official financing and private sector involvement. Although all three are crucial to a successful crisis resolution, let me focus here on the last. As regards private sector involvement, several proposals have been put forward, including the Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (SDRM) proposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This legally binding mechanism was based on the idea that some elements of bankruptcy mechanisms applicable in the domestic context to private or public sector entities could be used in a sovereign context. The idea of creating an SDRM has been put aside for the time being, mainly because of concerns over the potential adverse effect on borrowing costs. A second proposal, supported most enthusiastically by the private sector and by a number of sovereign issuers, is based on the use of collective action clauses (CACs). These clauses, which facilitate coordination among creditors by creating clear rules for reaching a binding agreement over a debt restructuring proposal, would become a regular feature of all new international bond issuance. CACs have the advantage of being easily integrated into market practices and having a straightforward structure, which makes them a powerful coordination tool for creditors holding debt of the same issuance. However, their contribution to solving coordination problems at the level of the total stock of outstanding debt of a country is less clear.

Malaysia is the first country in the Asia Pacific region to migrate from magnetic strip cards to chip-based payment cards. This transition, which was completed in 2005 despite the initial resistance by the industry, had successfully eradicated cases of fraudulent skimming or counterfeiting of payment cards. The investment cost of RM200 million was recovered within two and a half years from fraud avoidance. I think it is important for the banking industry to take note of this fact. The various regulatory measures introduced by Bank Negara Malaysia and the continuous investment made by the industry have caused the cases of fraud incidents in e-payments to remain at a very low level over the last decade. In 2013, fraud incidents only accounted for 0.0054% of total transaction volume and 0.0011% of the transaction value of e-payment transactions. While we should be satisfied with such encouraging outcomes, there is no room for complacency as fraudsters are always on the look-out for possible weaknesses to exploit. Therefore, continuous efforts need to be taken both at the policy-making and at the industry level to continuously identify, remedy and tackle emerging security risks. 4. Consumer protection and education  The unbanked and the underbanked might find e-payments to be too sophisticated and lack the personal touch. In this respect, policymakers and market players have an important role to play in educating and creating awareness among consumers on the benefits of e-payments and the security steps that they can take to minimise fraud incidents.
In our region, the cooperation between the Nordic and Baltic countries is also important in the effort to discover and manage systemic risks. This cooperation also covers plans and preparations for dealing with potential crises. A summary in three reflection Let me conclude where I started. Palmstruch discovered the benefits of a financial system, but also experienced the individual temptations associated with irresponsible lending and how dependent banking operations are on public confidence. Palmstruch also lived to see how the state – rather drastically – learned the lessons of this experience. In this speech I have provided an introduction to banks and financial regulation – why banks are needed, but also the risks they entail. I have argued that the differences between a cost-benefit calculation at the social and private levels justifies a strict regulation of the financial sector and declared that such regulation will always meet with resistance. I have spoken about the global financial crisis, how it was met and how it became a debt crisis in the euro area. I have also spoken about the course we should take in the future, and why. If I were asked to sum up my speech in three reflections they would be as follows:   We have to distinguish between the economic costs of financial regulation at the social and private levels.   Problems in the banking sector cannot be resolved unless we do something about them.

In Europe, the banks are more important for the supply of capital to the real economy than they are in the United States. So, on our side of the Atlantic, support was channelled via the banking system to a greater degree. The ECB has increased liquidity, partly by offering loans with longer maturities. In addition, the ECB has supported the markets for both covered bonds and government securities and has thereby supported the banking system of the euro area. It has not been able to prevent European banks from encountering serious problems. Many smaller banks – and a number of major banks – have been forced to close. These liquidations have often been carried out with governmental participation and support. The costs of government capital contributions and guarantees have been comprehensive. These lie behind a large part of the fiscal policy problems currently being faced by many European states, a subject I will return to. The most critical period for Swedish banks was between the autumn of 2008 and the spring of 2009. The liquidity shortage on the financial markets made it difficult for the banks to renew their loans. This was joined by the threat posed by the crisis in the Baltic countries and the Swedish banks’ exposures there. The consequences of this were that the value of Swedish bank securities fell drastically and demand for government securities rose.
Alongside the ongoing efforts by firms to get closer to the frontier of best practice in risk management, it is very important to see a substantial and sustained investment in improving the infrastructure that underpins the over-the-counter derivatives market. The major dealers in the credit derivatives market have begun a major effort to close the gap between the level of the business they are undertaking and their operational capacity to manage effectively the legal, operational and settlement risks in that business.

WIBC Asia provides a valuable platform to bring together stakeholders in Islamic finance, from Asia and the Middle East, to foster stronger collaboration for sustained industry growth. I wish you fruitful discussions. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Second, banking does not have its own ethics—nor should it have its own ethics. The qualities that you value in other aspects of your life should be the same qualities you apply at work and encourage in your colleagues. Third, candid assessment is critical to improving culture. I invite you to think in particular about the incentives and norms of behavior within your organizations. Do they support or impair the qualities and principles that guide you and that your firm espouses? Before expanding on those points, let me explain why I believe that reforming culture is important, 1/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  and justifies the time and effort of not only of today’s program, but of the ongoing work at your institutions and collectively across the industry. The manipulations of LIBOR and foreign exchange rates prompted the New York Fed’s work on culture. Of course, widespread misconduct did not originate with either episode. The timing, however, was significant. Despite the near-death experience of the financial crisis, new rules and regulations, and―in some cases―large fines and penalties, the LIBOR and FX events made clear that serious ethical and behavioral problems had persisted in the industry. I was particularly struck by how the manipulation of foreign exchange rates occurred even after the LIBOR fixing was widely known. The appropriate lessons from the LIBOR scandal did not seem to have been learned. That was both surprising and profoundly disappointing to me. The LIBOR and FX collusions were not occasional atonalities in an otherwise harmonious financial system.

That new bridge I mentioned a moment ago is up and running. By the end of this month, all lenders should be ready to offer you products linked to SONIA or another non-LIBOR rate. Six or twelve months ago, that wasn’t universally true. Now it is. But don’t just take my word for that. Ask National Express, which took out one of the first SONIA-linked loans.2 Ask Riverside Group, a housing association, which secured a SONIA credit facility during the height of the Covid crisis in early April. 3 Or ask GlaxoSmithKline, which concluded a multi-currency refinanced credit facility linked to both SONIA and its US equivalent SOFR.4  -  Moving away from LIBOR won’t always be easy. But that’s where I come to my third message: which is that you are not in this on your own: for those needing to transition, there is help, and lots of it. The first port of call for most firms should be your own bank, to begin understanding how SONIA can work for your business. But help is also available from many other sources: o  The industry wide Risk Free Rate Working Group has produced educational videos and helpful short guides. These are available on the Bank of England5 and FCA websites and will be sent to everyone attending today’s webinar. o  The Working Group will also be taking forward a programme of engagement with your sector into the end of this year, to help you with transition.