samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It should have three main powers: –  banking supervision (possibly the same kind of structure as the Eurosystem with one “head” and decentralised implementation);  –  deposit guarantee, with massive firepower, provided that it could collect a tax on every euro area bank and could borrow on the markets with a supranational guarantee;  –  banking resolution (crisis management). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Of course, such a leap will require numerous steps and the elimination of a large number of substantial obstacles. But what it requires most is an unfailing political will from all euro area members to progress towards a stronger and more coherent economic and monetary union. After all, the greatest advances in the European project have always come in reaction to crises. And we should remember the prediction of Jean Monnet: “Europe was born out of crises and will be the solution to these crises.”  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

But more fundamentally, to be successful, we and the new payments regulator will need to extend the cooperative working relationship we already enjoy in other areas to payment matters. Let me stop at this point: I have tried to draw out some of the idiosyncrasies of the payments environment in the UK and the highlights of our recent and prospective work to protect the resilience of our core sterling payment systems. Hopefully there have been some relevant crossovers to the Canadian context, which are helpful for today’s deliberations. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
Such opportunities are available not only in Malaysia but also in the region and globally. The time is opportune for tapping into the Islamic finance market. Malaysia has had a head start in Islamic banking and finance. While we have the largest Islamic banking market in the world, the largest Islamic capital market and largest takaful market, still the potential generated by the unprecedented growth in the global Islamic finance industry is yet to be fully harnessed by the players in the Malaysian financial sector. As Islamic financial products increase in sophistication, a higher level of competencies, skills and structuring abilities of the merchant banking community would be needed. If Malaysia could emerge as a supplier of these high-end services, the nature of merchant banking would change significantly. On the part of the Government, major initiatives have been taken to create the enabling environment and create resources for the next phase of development of Islamic banking and finance. These include  BIS Review 83/2005  3  our efforts to build Shariah expertise, promotion of convergence of Shariah understanding, promoting and hosting IFSB, the international Islamic standard setting body and more recently work is being undertaken to streamline the regulatory regime for Islamic banking and Takaful. These cumulative efforts are aimed at promoting a more conducive environment for enhancing Malaysia's position as a hub for Islamic finance. Law reform work on these matters has already begun and is expected to be completed by next year.

Strong support and inputs from the banking institutions to systematically analyse skills requirements and training needs of their talents on an on-going basis is much needed and should serve as important feedback mechanism for ABS so that academic curriculum is tuned to the changing needs of the industry. In closing, I would like to congratulate ABS for its launch today which opens an exciting new chapter as it seeks to contribute to the new era of growth for the banking sector. Whilst its raison d’être is to serve the Malaysian banking sector, I have every confidence that Asian Banking School as the name suggests, will in no time start to expand its reach and relevance beyond national boundaries to evolve its role in meeting learning and development needs of the banking workforce in the region. Last but not least, let me also thank everyone involved in the process that has brought us to this momentous occasion today. Without their vision and commitment, today’s occasion would not be possible. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
At the same time, disruptions in maritime transport, difficulties in the supply of certain inputs and higher input prices affected the recovery in the primary, industrial (particularly in the case of transport) and construction sectors from mid-2021. By demand component, consumption recovered significantly, but not enough to return to pre-pandemic levels.1 It therefore appears that households – particularly higher income ones – still have a high volume of saving built up since the start of the pandemic. Turning to housing, building permits reached levels similar to those seen prior to COVID-19. However, the drastic fall-off in housing starts in 2020 Q2 and Q3 has continued to weigh down on construction completion volumes in 2021 and 2022. For their part, house sales and purchases surged. Private productive investment grew by 8.8%, driven by the intensification of digitalisation and by firms having to adapt to the pandemic containment measures. To date, the boost from the Next Generation EU (NGEU) programme has been modest. Net external demand contributed nearly 0.5 pp to GDP growth in 2021. By component, at end-2021 trade in goods stood at levels only slightly higher than a year earlier, due to the impact of bottlenecks. By contrast, exports of tourism services recovered vigorously.2 It is worth highlighting that the total number of exporters3 exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 5.5%. However, in 2021 the stable export base (firms that have been exporting for at least four consecutive years) was still 1.4% down on two years earlier.

Great progress has been made in this field  BIS Review 27/2001  1  in recent years, both in agreeing on norms and implementing them. For instance, norms have been produced for payment systems, accounting and auditing, bankruptcy legislation, transparency in fiscal and monetary policy and measures against money laundering. When I was the Nordic-Baltic representative on the IMF's Executive Board, we worked hard to establish norms for correct and detailed reporting of economic statistics. The World Bank, the IMF and other organisations support countries wishing to adapt their legislation to meet the norms, by assisting with expert help. Several Swedish experts take part in this work. It is in the interests of all nations to apply these jointly agreed norms, as this reduces the risk of financial crises. In addition, countries that do not follow the norms will find it more difficult to borrow on the international capital market, since lending is more risky. Access to capital will therefore be more restricted and interest rates will be higher. It is also in the countries' own interests that other countries meet the norms, as financial crises in one country have a tendency to spread to other countries in similar circumstances. We saw an example of this during the Asian crisis 1997-98. As Sweden is a small country with an open economy and therefore dependent on financial stability in the world around us, we contribute experts to the groups working out the norms.
While much has been made of the special relationship between the US and UK, it is not so special that the possibility of a reduction in the pace of additional stimulus in the US warrants a current reduction in the degree of monetary stimulus in the UK. 4  We are not alone in that belief – other major independent forecasters such as the OBR and NIESR share our view that unemployment will be above 7% in 3 years’ time. The MPC’s assessment of the outlook for unemployment and likelihood of hitting the threshold is described in the August Inflation Report, available on the Bank’s website at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/inflationreport/2013/ir1303.aspx. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Movements in longer-term market interest rates are certainly relevant, but what matters most to you is what actually happens to Bank Rate, now and in the future. That is because the interest rates on 70% of loans to households and more than 50% of loans to businesses are linked to Bank Rate.5 And it is the Bank of England that controls that rate. We do not intend even to consider raising it before unemployment falls to 7%. When it does reach that point, we will control whether a rise is warranted, taking into account the strength of the recovery and the outlook for inflation. The upward move in market expectations of where Bank Rate will head in future could, at the margin, feed into the effective financial conditions facing the real economy. The MPC will be watching those conditions closely.

Specifically, we announced that we do not intend to raise Bank Rate at least until the unemployment rate falls to 7%, provided there are no material threats to either price or financial stability.1 All nine MPC members agreed to set monetary policy in future according to this framework of forward guidance. That does not mean Bank Rate will automatically rise when unemployment falls to 7%. Nor is 7% a target for the unemployment rate – it should ultimately fall well below that level. Before the Great Recession, the UK’s unemployment rate stood at just over 5%. The 7% threshold is instead a staging post along the road to recovery. When unemployment reaches 7% the MPC will reassess the state of the economy and the appropriate stance of monetary policy. Our forward guidance provides you with certainty that interest rates will not rise too soon. Exactly how long they stay low will depend on the progress of the recovery and in particular how quickly unemployment comes down. What matters is that rates won’t go up until jobs and incomes are really growing. The knowledge that interest rates will stay low until the recovery is well established should give greater confidence to households to spend responsibly and businesses to invest wisely. It may seem that unemployment doesn’t have far to fall, from the current 7.8% to the 7% threshold. The MPC’s central view, though, is that this could take some time – for three reasons.
To achieve this, we must develop synergies between the existing initiatives: Capital Markets Union, the Juncker Plan and Banking Union. But we must also go still further, with two clear goals. Firstly, diversification of financing to meet businesses’ needs. Equity financing, rather than debt financing, is better adapted to risk taking and therefore to innovation. But Europe currently lags very far behind in this area: equity financing of businesses is less than half that in the United States (67% of GDP in the euro area compared with 125% in the United States). Secondly: increased resilience of the euro area thanks to integrated capital markets. As Jens Weidmann and I wrote last year, this manner of sharing private risks is the best way to counter asymmetric shocks within a monetary union. In the United States for example, private equity is capable of absorbing around 40% of an economic shock specific to a State. 3. The new international environment makes action more urgent. Some of those around us seem to no longer believe in the benefits of the European Union. The new US president has stated this very clearly, and the British chose to leave the union. These changes bring us face to face with our responsibilities: we can no longer afford to wait and see. But how should we respond? Not by less Europe. That would be a mistake if we wish to have collective control over our destiny in this new world.

Our goal was to portray a theme in a coherent and consistent overall context. However, as work progressed it became evident that it was going to be difficult to depict the thrust of the original overarching theme ‘Switzerland open to the world’ satisfactorily in a banknote series. This ran counter to our plan of designing banknotes that had a clear internal logic and were immediately recognisable as a series. The production delay bought us some time to consider the overarching theme of the new series, the selected illustrations and the messaging of the various motifs on the notes in greater depth. The result was a decision to change the overarching theme to ‘The many facets of  Page 2/4  Berne, 3 September 2019 Thomas Jordan  News conference on new banknotes  Switzerland’. Taking this as our inspiration allowed us to portray our country with all its facets very effectively and gave us more latitude for the design. In line with this thematic development, each denomination depicts a typically Swiss characteristic, which is then illustrated graphically using a key motif. The key motif appears in various forms in all the illustrations and security features on a given denomination, and ties the different sections of the note together. You can see from this image that the key motif of the 100-franc note is water.
And we all presumably want these decisions to be good ones. But how can we ensure that a decision is good? This is a weighty and far-reaching question. If I am to make meaningful contribution, I will need to limit my focus. Norges Bank makes many decisions. The monetary policy decisions every six weeks are awaited with particular interest. Based on my experience from interest rate decision-making, I will focus on how the quality of a decision can be assessed. Even though I am speaking from my own perspective, I hope I am able to touch on more general issues that are of wider relevance. 2. Independence provides a sound framework for interest rate decisions  Most countries have now delegated the task of ensuring price stability to the central bank. This is also the case in Norway. The government has set an inflation target for monetary policy and delegated the operational conduct of monetary policy to Norges Bank. 3 This framework can be regarded as an institutional solution to the problem of avoiding major mistakes. An independent central bank is better able to give priority to long-term interests over short-term gains. 1  The lecture “On keeping promises”, commentaries by Endre Stavang and Henrik Syse and Francis Sejersted’s summary of the debate are published in Norges Bank Occasional Paper No.39 (2009). 2  Kim Gunnar Helsvig (2007): Elitisme på norsk. Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi 1945–2007 [Elitism in Norway. The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters 1945–2007], Novus forlag, Oslo, pp. 18–19.

Foreign demand continued to contribute to the expansion of the economy in the first quarter of 2012, albeit to a markedly lower extent. The sluggish increase in exports remains a concern as long as it affects the performance of the economy during 2012. It also provides evidence for Albania’s strong reliance on certain geographical markets or products. The analysis of monetary data suggests that the performance of monetary indicators was in line with the developments in the real economy. Money supply maintained the growth rate of end-2011, recording in March an annualized growth of 8.8%. Our analyses suggest that its growth is in line with the demand of the economy for real money, signalling contained monetary inflationary pressures in the medium run. Lending to the private sector recorded an annual growth of 9.0% in March. Its performance, particularly in the recent months, was determined by the low private sector demand for credit and the cautious bank lending behaviour. Financial markets were liquid and stable. Interbank market rates dropped significantly in April and the trading volume in this market increased. The pass-through of easing monetary policy signals persisted in the lek deposit market as well, as reflected by the lower interest rates. Government security yields in the primary market remained at similar levels to the previous month. Their increase in the first quarter of 2012 reflects the developments in supply and demand-side structural factors, hence signalling no added inflation premiums.
In the long run, output is determined by the supply of labour, capital and technology and by the ability to adapt, but in the short and medium term monetary policy can also have an impact on the real economy. The economy grows over time. Output will in some periods lie above trend growth and in others below trend.2 Stabilising output means seeking to maintain actual output near trend. There is one main monetary policy instrument: the interest rate. Interest rates are set with a view to achieving low and stable inflation, while at the same time seeking to avoid substantial variations in output and employment. In recent years, household income has shown solid growth, and household confidence has been high. Corporate earnings, however, have been low, and until recently enterprises have primarily focused on enhancing efficiency. The level of household borrowing is high, while enterprises are reducing debt. Credit developments are thus giving ambiguous signals to our interest-rate setting. The interest rate can be used to reduce credit demand. At present - with low interest rates abroad and a close link between domestic interest rates and the krone - a tighter monetary policy would restrain credit demand primarily because job security would be reduced. A flexible inflation targeting regime reduces the possibility of exposing households to a double shock in the form of higher unemployment and higher interest rates, as was the case at the beginning of the 1990s.

Japan, however, has also become an important market for Norwegian fish, and Japanese tourists spend a considerable amount of money in Norway. The previous large trade deficit with Japan turned into a surplus in 2002, even excluding oil. The current strong growth rates in Asia are boosting demand for commodities. This also influences prices for commodities that we produce. Oil prices have risen sharply since 2000. Prices for other products such as paper and aluminium have shown a flatter trend, but have picked up. Salmon prices, which are more heavily influenced by developments in Europe, have risen sharply since spring 2003 following a marked fall in 2002. The impact of increased competition from low-cost countries on the Norwegian economy Imports from China to Norway increased considerably after 2001, reflecting in part China’s membership of the WTO from December 2001. Imports from China will probably increase in the future. This in itself contributes to lower imported inflation. Moreover, inflation in Norway is restrained because the rise in prices for imports from trading partners other than China is also slowing. High economic growth in China may persist for a longer period, providing the possibility of a large market that will also be open to Norwegian firms. The enlargement of the EEA and the EU on 1 May this year will also open up new markets and sources of income for Norwegian firms, and increase the supply of labour. The transition to more open economies in Central and Eastern Europe has already had an impact on Norwegian firms.
The Riksbank do get suggestions that we should change to an inflation target similar to the one the ECB uses and aim for 0–2% in a medium-term perspective. In practice, this could very well lead to the same decisions concerning the repo rate as the model we have chosen and the difference should therefore not be exaggerated. That I personally prefer our approach has to do with at least four different aspects. Besides Goodhart’s argument that it helps us staying on track, doing what we should to keep inflation at 2%, there are three more arguments. 1. The more precise policy formulation has been beneficial for our thinking and the way it has developed, an aspect that does not usually get a mention in the literature. A clear framework kicks. Good and clear arguments that can be presented openly are needed for departing from adopted principles. 3  BIS Review 85/2000  2. Aspects of communication also favour our approach, with published forecasts and a simple policy rule. When explaining on television to the general public or to the audience at a labour conference in the north of Sweden, I can rely on exactly the same arguments as when I face Professor Lars Svensson at Stockholm University. 3. The clearer the policy, the easier it is to assess or evaluate. These assessments are an important part of the efforts to generate broader respect for what we do and healthy for our accountability.

The general bankruptcy procedure is not considered credible, because it is not designed to handle systemic risk.1 The proposal envisages that a bank is to be put under public administration if it is unable, or is expected to become unable, to meet its commitments over a longer period. A bank under public administration is also to be able to obtain a government guarantee that covers all its commitments. All this is intended to enable the bank to continue operations during a transitional period without a capital contribution from the government. A guiding principle behind the proposed public administration is that, in the event of a crisis, there is no universal protection of creditors. Better risk management and decreased risk exposure are likely to result ex ante if shareholders are liable to be hit by a crisis and creditors may suffer losses. The government guarantee is accordingly proposed to apply only to commitments that are made after the guarantee has been issued. In this way, a bank’s losses are to be carried in the first place by its shareholders and after them by the creditors whose claims pre-date the decision to impose public administration. A basic principle in the management of the Swedish banking crisis was just that no compensation would be provided for shareholders if government funds were needed to cope with a bank’s problems. This was important, of course, with a view to future moral hazard problems but it was also crucial politically.
We now predict the current account balance to stand at $ billion in 2019 (compared to $ billion assumed in October). We have also made a slight downgrade in the financial account balance of the private sector – to $ billion, in comparison to $ billion assumed in October. Many will ask why next year’s financial account balance of the private sector will make up $ billion, whereas it is predicted at $ billion for this year. Beyond the decline in oil prices, the reason for this is the decision to suspend and subsequently resume fiscal rule-based foreign currency purchases in the market. A positive current account balance is helped by either the buildup of national foreign currency reserves or capital outflow. This is clearly seen from this year’s movements in the balance of payments. In the first year-half, the current account totalled $ billion, with foreign currency reserves at $ billion and net capital outflow in the private sector at $ billion. In the second half of the year, when we moved to suspend foreign currency purchases under the fiscal rule, this ratio reversed. With the current account running at $ billion, we expect capital outflow to run at $ billion and foreign currency reserves to expand by no more than $ billion. Capital outflow in the private sector is either repayment of external liabilities or accumulation of foreign assets including in the form of foreign exchange in foreign bank accounts.

In a globalised world, Switzerland's attractiveness as a business location in an internationally competitive environment should continue to improve. Third, the economically active population could be strengthened by increasing the number of qualified immigrants. There is a substantial pool of labour from which to recruit not only within the European Union (EU), but also in other regions. At the same time, Switzerland's employment quota could be lifted if more women now living in Switzerland entered the workforce. The key to achieving this goal is striving for a greater work life balance, i.e. combining a career and family life for both parents. For example, more women should have the option to work fulltime on a permanent basis. BIS Review 13/2007  1