samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the near term, the euro area should continue to benefit from a recovery in exports, the significant macroeconomic stimulus under way and the measures taken so far to restore the functioning of the financial system. In addition, the inventory cycle is expected to contribute positively. However, uncertainty remains high and the persistent volatility in incoming data warrants a cautious interpretation of available information. Overall, the recovery is expected to be rather uneven, given the temporary nature of some of the supporting factors and the ongoing balance sheet correction in the financial and non-financial sectors of the economy, both inside and outside the euro area. This assessment is broadly in line with the September 2009 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. According to these projections, average annual real GDP growth will range between -4.4% and -3.8% in 2009 and between -0.5% and +0.9% in 2010. Compared with the June 2009 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, this implies an upward revision of the ranges for both 2009 and 2010, reflecting mainly the recent, more  BIS Review 102/2009  1  positive developments and information. Forecasts by international organisations are broadly in line with the September 2009 ECB staff projections. In the view of the Governing Council, the risks to this outlook remain broadly balanced. On the upside, there may be stronger than anticipated effects stemming from the extensive macroeconomic stimulus being provided and from other policy measures taken.

Confidence may also improve more quickly, labour market deterioration may be less marked than currently expected and foreign demand may prove to be stronger than projected. On the downside, concerns remain relating to a stronger or more protracted negative feedback loop between the real economy and the still strained financial markets, renewed increases in oil and other commodity prices, the intensification of protectionist pressures and a disorderly correction of global imbalances. At the same time, the uncertainty surrounding this outlook remains higher than usual. With regard to price developments, annual HICP inflation was, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, -0.2% in August , compared with -0.7% in July. This development is in line with previous expectations and reflects largely base effects resulting from the movements in global commodity prices a year ago. Owing to these base effects, annual inflation rates are projected to turn positive again within the coming months. Looking further ahead, inflation is expected to remain in positive territory, with overall price and cost developments staying subdued in the wake of ongoing sluggish demand in the euro area and elsewhere. In this context, it is important to re-emphasise that the indicators of inflation expectations over the medium to longer term remain firmly anchored in line with the Governing Council’s aim of keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. This outlook is consistent with the September 2009 ECB staff projections for euro area inflation.
Mario Marcel: The Monetary Policy Report and the Financial Stability Report Presentation by Mr Mario Marcel, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, before the Finance Committee of the Honorable Senate of the Republic, Santiago de Chile, 19 December 2016. * * *  Introduction Mr. President of the Senate’s Finance Committee, Senator Andrés Zaldívar, honorable members of this Committee, ladies and gentlemen, Thank you for your invitation to present the views of the Board of the Central Bank of Chile on the recent macroeconomic and financial developments and prospects and their implications for monetary and financial policy. This vision is contained in detail in our Monetary Policy Report of December 2016 and our Financial Stability Report of the second half 2016. On this occasion, our reports feature a special characteristic: they were prepared mostly under the direction of the Bank’s outgoing Governor, Rodrigo Vergara, and are being presented by an incoming Governor. Interestingly enough, this is rather anecdotic, since our reports rely on the work of the Bank’s technical team and the Board’s deliberations, regardless of the Governor in charge. This attests to the continuity that characterizes a sound institution with permanent responsibility for the Chilean economy’s monetary and financial stability, and that must inspire confidence in economic agents and in the population at large. This is remarkable, in my view, as the soundness and reliability of institutions is a matter of growing concern in Chile these days.

Determination is necessary in order to act in a timely way, because an untimely monetary policy will delay the convergence of inflation to the target or will do so at an unnecessary cost. 9 / 19  BIS central bankers' speeches  In practice, this means making robust monetary policy decisions in uncertain conditions. Thus, in our last monetary policy meeting we communicated that, in the most likely scenario, a bounded easing of the monetary impulse would be needed. The search for the right combination of prudence and determination is also necessary in the other fields where the Central Bank operates. To monitor the financial sector without restricting its ability to innovate; to develop instruments and facilities that are attractive to the market, and to improve risk management and transparency without compromising efficiency and timeliness. Identifying the new challenges facing the Central Bank and finding the answers that best balance prudence and determination requires organized and systematic efforts. As an expression of it, in the coming months we will develop a new institutional strategic planning exercise. We intend to consult with various players, both public and private, including, of course, this Committee. The purpose of this exercise, of the initiatives we undertake, and the conduct of our regular policy decisions must be particularly explicit. What we ultimately aspire is to continue to strengthen the Central Bank of Chile as an institution of excellence, that our fellow Chileans can trust. Thank you.
We ask the FSB and its relevant members to assess regularly implementation and whether it is sufficient to improve transparency in the derivatives markets, mitigate systemic risk, and protect against market abuse.”  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  been distant from the attention of the financial stability authorities, but their integrity has long been a focus for securities regulators. They are especially important in economies where a significant proportion of the intermediation of savings/investment occurs via capital markets rather than via bank balance sheets. If those core capital markets are not resilient to shocks and, crucially, if substitutes are not readily available, disruptions could materially impair the supply of credit and risk-capital to the economy, with macroeconomic and other welfare costs. Equity and high-grade corporate bond markets probably pass that test in a number of developed economies. In the USA at least, some securitisation markets were probably significant too. When the securitisation markets closed, they had become so big in the USA that it was not realistic for that part of the credit system to be reintermediated by the US banking system in short order. Even if the banks had been strong, they would have needed to raise a lot more capital to expand their balance sheets. It is, of course, natural that policy has focused on those markets – securitisation and some OTC derivatives – that featured prominently in the crisis. But we do need to develop a framework for identifying more generally which markets really matter to stability.

East Asia in particular has become more integrated than ever before as manifested by the size of intra-regional trade, which now accounts for about half of the region’s total trade in 2014, and the increase in intra-regional investment flows (foreign direct investment for ASEAN-10 for example rose more than 50 percent to 17% in 2013 from 11% in 2003). Regional cooperation such as the harmonisation of rules, liberalisation and deregulation in various economic sectors, enhancing regional safety nets, has also intensified since the Asian financial crisis. The increase in the network of dialogue has also brought the region closer together. These trends have coincided with Asia’s increasing significance, influence and integration in the world economy, with the region contributing to more than half of global growth since 2008. There is hence a growing international interest to better understand the region and the implications of the greater regional integration in Asia within the context of the global economy. I believe we have an eminent and well qualified panel of speakers to provide us their perspectives on this topic. I hope you enjoy listening to their views. I am certainly looking forward to it. On that note, I wish to thank OMFIF for co-hosting this debate with Bank Negara Malaysia. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1
Last but not least, our free floating exchange rate system has permitted the exchange rate to depreciate nearly 11 percent in real terms with respect to its trough of 2013, helping adjust the current account and favoring the competitiveness of our export sector. The saying goes that what is obvious is not talked about, and what is not talked about is forgotten. So I have thought relevant, especially in this environment that at times becomes overwhelmingly pessimistic, to stress how well equipped our economy is to deal with adverse situations. I think that the comparison with other economies of the continent, which have also suffered the brunt of the fall in the prices of our commodities, is revealing: most of them have high current account deficits and several show fiscal situations that are worrying to say the least. In many of them, high levels of dollarization or currency mismatches in the financial sector, restrict the room for exchange rate adjustment and force authorities to use less efficient instruments to achieve their goals. Chile’s reality is different: our economy’s adjustment occurred sooner than in other countries and it did so rapidly and deeply. This situation allows us to look into this and the coming years with some peace of mind. In this context, and as we projected in December, output growth has tended to stabilize around 2.5 percent annually, which is low, but in line with our baseline scenario should increase gradually through the year.

This is why we at the ECB stress the need to be extremely  BIS Review 66/2004  3  vigilant against the materialisation of second-round effects that may result from a rise in oil prices. The ECB’s commitment to maintaining price stability in the euro area over the medium term implies that it will react promptly if there are indications that second-round effects are likely to emerge. Asset prices and monetary policy As has become clear from the previous discussion, monetary policy-makers may face very difficult choices in the event of large swings in important economic variables - like the price of oil and other raw materials - that can have a significant impact on the state of the economy. The same is true for large movements in asset prices, especially when markets - notably equity and housing markets - are seen to be moving out of line with what could be considered fundamentals. Such asset price misalignments, or “bubbles”, and their eventual correction, can potentially have severe economic costs. Asset prices are important for monetary policy, not just because abrupt changes in asset prices may have severe implications for macroeconomic stability, but also because asset prices play a key role in the transmission of monetary policy. Through balance sheet effects and through their influence on the cost of capital, wealth, and confidence, asset prices affect spending decisions by households and companies. In addition, asset prices provide useful information to monetary policy-makers, notably about private sector expectations.
2  BIS Review 175/2010  We are pleased that also with this Library, we enable a lot of people, either younger or elderly, to give one of the most beautiful gifts – the book, for which the writer Garrison Keillor says that “it is the only gift you can constantly open, again and again”. We are glad that we are opening another such possibility. I sincerely hope that the opening of this Library will be welcomed by the scholars and wider public in the Republic of Macedonia. Thank you! BIS Review 175/2010  3

Zamani Abdul Ghani: Malaysia - an investment destination Speech by Mr Zamani Abdul Ghani, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Investors’ Conference, Kuala Lumpur, 22 June 2005. *  *  *  Bismillahirrahmanirrahim Your Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, Assalamualaikum warahmatullah hiwabarakatuh and good morning, First of all, allow me to welcome all of you to this conference on "Malaysia: An Investment Destination" held in conjunction with the 30th IDB Board of Governors' Meeting. We are most heartened that there are representatives here this morning from more than one hundred global financial institutions and from over thirty countries. I would like to welcome all of you to Malaysia especially those who are here for the first time. I hope you have had a good rest after a journey from your respective countries because we have a very special program waiting for you. Indeed it is a great honour to be given the privilege to host this historic conference. The theme for the conference "Malaysia: An Investment Destination" is a fitting choice as we would highlight to you a wide range of investment opportunities available for you in Malaysia. This theme is most appropriate given a fast changing global and regional financial landscape, driven by financial liberalization and consolidation, economic transformation and more discerning and demanding investors. Ladies and gentlemen, We will do our best to ensure that this conference will be rewarding and useful for you.
When employment increases it is reasonable to assume that cost pressures will also rise. Our assessment is that energy prices will not push up inflation in future, but that rising unit labour costs will contribute increasingly to inflation. Our assessment throughout the year has been that the outlook for inflation and the economy indicates that it is reasonable to assume the repo rate will need to be gradually increased. This will ensure that inflation is close to the target and that developments in the real economy are balanced. Given this, we chose to raise the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points at our monetary policy meeting in August. We have thus raised the repo rate four times so far this year and my assessment is that it is reasonable to assume that further increases will be necessary. However, it is a couple of weeks until my Executive Board colleagues and I meet to discuss the monetary policy stance. In connection with this meeting we will publish a new Inflation Report containing new forecasts for inflation and growth over the coming years. Let me now move on to the more general discussion on how we conduct our monetary policy. In May we published a new document on our monetary policy strategy entitled "Monetary policy in Sweden", which described the Riksbank's objective and strategy. So what does this document contain, and why did we decide to publish it? I intend to discuss these questions now.

Christine Lagarde: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament Introductory statement (by videoconference) by Ms Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament, Frankfurt am Main, 28 September 2020. * * * Madam Chair, Honourable members of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, Ladies and gentlemen, Thank you very much for giving me the opportunity to speak to you today and to have a frank and timely discussion about the ECB’s monetary policy, as befits the topics you have chosen for this hearing. After a few words on the euro area economic outlook, I will focus my remarks today on the ECB’s monetary policy and in particular on the role of asset purchases, before sharing some reflections on the ECB’s accountability arrangements. The euro area economic outlook The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is still being felt across the euro area. Businesses are facing difficulties, people are losing their jobs, and prospects about the future remain uncertain. While euro area economic activity rebounded in the third quarter, the recovery remains incomplete, uncertain and uneven. Consumer spending has resumed significantly, but consumers remain cautious owing to anxiety about their job and income prospects.1 Similarly, business investment has been picking up, but weaker demand and elevated uncertainty continue to weigh on firms’ investment plans. In this context, job retention schemes and national guarantees on bank loans remain critically important factors in reducing uncertainty and softening the impact of the pandemic.
Effective surveillance of the financial market has entailed adoption of appropriate risk management policies and procedures meant to ensure that financial institutions do not undertake excessive risks that may increase the vulnerability of the country to external shocks. V.  Current state of the economy  Mainly due to the policies pursued the Zambian Authorities, the economy has shown appreciable resilience in the wake of the global economic crisis. Positive economic recovery trends have already started to be witnessed within 2009. (i)  According to the Central Statistical Office, GDP growth is now forecast at 6.3% for 2009, up from 5.7% recorded on 2008, primarily driven by increased output in the mining, construction and agriculture sectors: •  Mining growing by 21.4%  •  Construction by 15.5%  •  Agriculture by 7.1%  (ii)  Although inflation rose to 16.6% at end-December 2008 from 8.9% in 2007, much of this increase was driven by the rise in food and energy prices. By October 2009, annual inflation had fallen to 12.3%. (iii)  The exchange rate has also stabilised with the weighted inter-bank rate moving within a range of K4,600 and K4,750 per US dollar in the third quarter of 2009. (iv)  The external sector adjusted strongly with the strong rebound in copper prices, to above US $ per metric tonne, and increased output (primarily through a new mine, Lumwana Copper Mine). The merchandise trade balance recorded a surplus of US $ million (f.o.b.)

in the third quarter 2009 compared to a deficit of US $ million in 2008. Similarly, owing to favourable performance of the external sector, international reserves have increased to US $ million in 2009 (end-Sept) from US $ million in December 2003. (v)  Equity markets have begun to reverse their large losses and FDI and portfolio flows are returning to Zambia’s financial sector. BIS Review 161/2009  5  (vi)  Zambia’s financial sector remains strong and stable largely due to banks being adequately capitalised, as confirmed by a recent Financial Sector Assessment Programme (FSAP) Survey by the IMF and World Bank. VI. Challenges  The unfavourable effects arising from the recent global financial and economic crises are huge but surmountable. To this end, we need to do more than what we have done in the past. One of the key challenges relates to need to maintain macroeconomic stability. Macroeconomic managers in less developed countries have to be careful not to use the global economic crisis as a reason to slip back to unsustainable macroeconomic policies of the past. In addition, the crisis has brought to the fore, once again, the ever important challenge of accelerating the diversification process. Our reliance on export of primary commodities, copper in the case of Zambia, exposes our countries to external risks such as the ones we are currently experiencing. VII.
SPEECH DATE:  08/12/2021  SPEAKER:  Deputy Governor Per Jansson  VENUE:  Sveriges Riksbank  SVERIGES RIKSBANK SE-103 37 Stockholm (Brunkebergstorg 11) Tel +46 8 787 00 00 Fax +46 8 21 05 31 registratorn@riksbank.se www.riksbank.se  Is it time to review the division of roles in macroeconomic policy? * Sometimes, developments can make you start pondering somewhat larger and more fundamental issues than you might usually do. This is how it has been for me recently. The question I would like to address today is whether it might be time for us to modify our view of the appropriate division of roles in macroeconomic policy, by which I mean our overall fiscal and monetary policy. I am not entirely sure of the answer myself, although I am inclined to believe that it is something we should probably do. In this talk, I will try to explain my preliminary and probably rather unfinished thoughts. What I am quite sure of, however, is that we have reached a point where it is time for us to start discussing what an appropriate division of macroeconomic roles would be. I am glad to say that the number of articles touching upon the subject has increased recently, and I hope that this speech will contribute further to this discussion. But let me take a step back and start from scratch. The devaluation policy reached the end of the road in the early 1990s Thirty years ago, the Swedish economy was in a dire situation.

A common view is that monetary policy is in the driver’s seat The practical application of macroeconomic policy under this policy regime is often described as a situation in which monetary policy is sitting in the driver’s seat and is expected to play the active part in stabilisation policy. It is monetary policy that is expected to keep the economy in balance and inflation stable. Fiscal policy is perceived to have a more passive role, which in principle is restricted to adjusting taxes and expenditure when this is necessary to keep public debt stable over the long term.9 It is not considered to have any explicit stabilisation policy task, other than that which follows from the automatic stabilisers, except possibly in the event of deep recessions or crises. This view has had a major impact throughout the world, both in academic research and in policy departments at finance ministries and central banks. Conducting macroeconomic policy with this division of roles has also worked relatively well in most places, not least in Sweden. It has thus been an arrangement with which most people have been pretty content. The division of roles may no longer be so obvious But perhaps it is time for us to begin to ask ourselves whether this division into an active monetary policy and a more passive fiscal policy really is the best way to achieve a favourable macroeconomic development in all situations. Perhaps the division has been taken a step too far after all, given that certain circumstances have changed.