samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Initially, the impact of the crisis seemed to be concentrated in the US and a handful of European banks in Germany, the UK and Switzerland which had pursued particularly risky strategies. The euro area as a whole did not see a marked reduction in credit growth. Meanwhile the emerging economies of Asia continued to boom. With wages and prices rising, many of the people I met in India and China at the start of the year rather welcomed the prospect of a fall in Western demand as a means of taking a little of the heat out of their own economies. But despite different starting points and policies, we have now seen bank failures in many countries in Europe and acute pressures develop everywhere. And the US, Japan, the euro area and the UK have all entered recession. This summer has also brought a slowdown in growth in the Far East and other emerging economies which is likely to test political as well as economic regimes. The challenge for policy It was clear last autumn that the financial crisis was leading to a squeeze on credit and lowering the prospects for growth and inflation in the UK. That was why the MPC, which had been raising rates as late as July, cut Bank Rate in December last year and followed with two more reductions in February and April. While the euro area started with lower rates and initially seemed less affected than the UK by a credit crunch, expected increases in rates were delayed.

I think it merits serious consideration for more widespread adoption, irrespective of the accounting and tax treatment such reserves might attract. One key feature of such reserves is that they should be useable. That is, the markets and analysts need to accept that using such reserves to absorb write-offs when losses are high is the natural counterpart of building them up when losses are cyclically low. It is not a sign of  BIS Review 145/2008  5  weakness or of inadequate capitalisation, but of prudent management of the cyclical pattern of losses. From the point of view of market acceptability, separating cyclical reserves from more structural capital requirements seems a valuable idea. The second scheme I want to promote is growth-related capital requirements. Losses tend to be lower in the early stages of a loan’s life than when it is fully seasoned because borrowers are more certain of their own and the economy’s near-term prospects. A loan book which is growing more rapidly than average will be weighted towards such unseasoned loans, and so will appear to be performing better than a balanced portfolio of loans of different vintages. In addition, rapid growth of lending tends itself to be associated with taking on poor business – even if that is not obvious at the time it is written. Typically, rapid growth can only be achieved by drawing in marginal borrowers to the market. That is true of the banking sector as a whole.
Since these periods can be characterized by the monetization of public debts by sources of central banks or central banks having objectives other than and sometimes even contradicting price stability, economic agents tend to have doubts about the credibility of central bank policies. Not to mention that this constitutes a limit to the effectiveness of monetary policies. The other one is known as “inflationary psychology” or “inflation scare”. To be more precise, because of high and volatile inflationary periods, economic agents in emerging economies are more inclined to exaggerate adverse effects than in any other economy that has price stability. Thus, a seasonal rise in inflation may immediately lead to deterioration in inflation expectations and higher prices with little transitional impact on the level of economic activity. At this point, given the importance of expectations management, a key aspect of the policy framework is transparency and communication. Here, it is impossible not to agree with Paul Volcker, who said; “I have one lesson indelible in my brain: don’t let inflation get ingrained. Once that happens, there’s too 7 much agony in stopping the momentum.” Referring to the Turkish case, I can say that the thirty-year experience of high and chronic inflation has made us face the challenge of convincing both the public and the financial markets that we are committed to bringing inflation down and maintaining price stability.

4 In this context, emerging countries are forced to borrow in units of currencies that they are basically unable to issue. All these concerns have direct impact on the fragility of financial markets. Therefore, any doubt over the sustainability of fiscal discipline causes volatility in financial variables and has a high possibility of endangering central bank goals. In the case of Turkey, when we look back, we see that the period of high and variable inflation coincides with high public deficit being financed by the Central Bank. An increasing lack of fiscal discipline in public expenditures and further widening of budget deficits caused inflation to get out of control and the public sector borrowing requirement to grow continuously. This structure affected the banking system, as well. The Turkish banking sector was not able to perform its intermediary function effectively. Instead, the sector mostly financed public sector deficits. Looking to the present, on the other hand, one of the most important changes is that the Central Bank of Turkey no longer extends credits to the Treasury or any other public institution by the amendment made in its Law in 2001. And it is no coincidence that inflation has been on a declining trend since then. Moreover, tight fiscal policies have been put into practice for the last five years. A very high level of primary surplus, that is 6.5 percent, has been targeted. The positive effect of these measures has started to be observed in several areas.
The structured development of the insurance industry over the years in particular, spurred on by various capacity building initiatives, had yielded positive outcomes contributing to continued growth. The performance of the insurance industry is expected to improve in 2010 on the back of the economic recovery and increasing awareness on the role of insurance as a protection and financial planning tool. Improvements in the employment market, rising disposable income and revival in economic activities will generate spins-off to the insurance sector and create greater demand for insurance products. Nevertheless, the operating environment for the insurance industry in 2010 is expected to remain challenging. Despite the optimism on the economic and financial conditions as the financial markets continue to stabilize in early 2010, the low-yield investment environment will continue to pose near-term challenges for insurers. In the past, investment earnings had predominantly been relied upon to offset any setback in insurers’ underwriting performance but such expectations may be altered in the near-term. The financial crisis is a clear reminder for insurers to return to basics and focus on its core function of sound business underwriting. The increasing intensity of climate change has heightened the vulnerability of the world at large to natural disasters and extreme weather conditions. Tsunamis, volcanic ash and earthquakes, not previously known to strike in generally thought “safe” zones have actually occurred. Similarly, earthquakes and hurricanes have become more intense causing multibillion dollar losses to the affected economies.

The true value of the bond portfolio will, at the very latest, be realised when the loans are repaid. More than 90 percent of the fixed income portfolio is rated A or better. Even though rating agencies do not always prove to have the best evaluations, this still illustrates our conservative investment strategy. The Fund is a long-term savings plan and capable of riding out large swings in the markets. This is the very foundation of the investment strategy with its high allocation to equities. Our ability to adhere to this strategy in a critical phase – even if this should persist for some time – is crucial if the Fund is to deliver the returns we expect in the longer term. We need to attach importance to the real value of equity investments and safeguard assets by spreading the Fund’s investments. Norges Bank therefore supports the strategy that the government has chosen for the Fund. Under the Fund’s strategy, more equities will be bought when equity prices fall and fewer when they rise. The Fund therefore purchased a large volume of equities from 2001 to 2003 and is buying a considerable volume now. Of the equities now owned by the Fund, 40 per cent were purchased last year when prices were moving down. As a result, ownership in the business sector in the US, Europe and Asia has increased – in companies’ human capital, in their machinery and equipment, brands and organisation.
We are therefore exploring how Project Ubin can be linked up with other central bank DLT projects to facilitate cross-border payments. If successful, it will help bring about significant improvements in efficiency, cost, speed, and risk management. The grand vision is a DLT-based settlement system that paves the way for 24/7 operations and allows cross-border transactions to be settled instantly. Collaboration between Singapore and Andhra Pradesh through DLT DLT is a natural platform for collaboration. With the strong trade flows between Singapore and India, there are good opportunities for FinTechs and financial institutions in Singapore and Andhra Pradesh to collaborate. We can explore how our customs and trade platforms can be linked up to facilitate exchange of trade documents and advance the digitalisation of trade. Our banks can work together on new models of cross-border payments to improve settlement time, allow for round the clock operations, and reduce settlement risk. 4/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  This is an opportune time for DLT collaboration, and more broadly FinTech collaboration, between Andhra Pradesh and Singapore. I look forward to seeing FinTechs in Singapore developing solutions for use cases in Andhra Pradesh that will create value and opportunity for the people of this up-and-coming state. Thank you and I wish you fruitful and stimulating discussions. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches

The debate will be moderated by Mr. Valentin Lazea, the National Bank of Romania Chief Economist. Thank you for attending this conference, which I do hope will turn out to be a very successful one. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Although many Asian countries have significantly strengthened their financial systems, they still need to follow through with reforms in the financial and corporate sectors. Singapore’s financial system was lucky to emerge from the Asian crisis relatively unscathed. During the crisis, we undertook an extensive liberalisation program aimed at deepening and broadening capital markets, consolidating and upgrading the local banks, and enhancing Singapore’s position as an international financial centre. At the same time, we put in place a new supervisory framework to oversee financial institutions, shifting from one-size-fits-all regulation to more risk-based supervision. 4  BIS Review 33/2004  Our efforts have achieved encouraging results. Our debt market has grown three-fold since 1998 to reach $ billion in 2002, driven by growing demand in the region for debt financing. Our wealth management industry more than doubled in the same period, with total Assets Under Management growing from $ billion in 1998 to $ billion in 2002. In treasury activities, we have maintained our position as the fourth largest FX centre in the world, with an average daily trading volume of $ billion in 2003. The local banks have consolidated from seven into three banks that are larger and stronger, and are building up their regional footprints. In the recent Financial System Stability Assessment of Singapore, the IMF affirmed the robustness of Singapore’s financial system and the soundness of our legal, supervisory and institutional framework. We are heartened by these outcomes.

Lim Hng Kiang: The Tokyo Stock Exchange and Singapore Speech by Mr Lim Hng Kiang, Deputy Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore and Minister for Trade and Industry, at the Tokyo Stock Exchange Singapore Representative Office 10th Anniversary, Singapore, 14 December 2006. *  *  *  Congratulatory remarks I am delighted to be here with you this evening to celebrate the 10th anniversary of Tokyo Stock Exchange Singapore Representative Office. Firstly, I would like to thank the Tokyo Stock Exchange for its commitment to Singapore and the region over the past decade and I hope Tokyo Stock Exchange will continue to scale greater heights in coming years. Growth of Asia and Japan When Tokyo Stock Exchange established its overseas office in Singapore in 1996, Singapore and the region were experiencing strong economic growth with Asian economies developing at rates of about 5 to 10% per year. Today, we continue to witness the rise of Asia on the back of the twin drivers of China and India. Prospects for South-East Asia have improved considerably and Japan, after years of stagnation, is firmly back on the track of healthy sustained growth and is a major investor in South-East Asia. As of 2005, Japan's FDI into South-East Asia totaled $ billion, and it is the top investor in Indonesia, and the third largest investor in Vietnam. Changes in the global exchange landscape The competitive landscape in the global exchange arena has also changed significantly.
Recent research using Facebook data has shown that the views of (economically and geographically-distant) friends can materially change peoples’ views of the housing market, independently of local factors and conditions. 38  This is a concrete example of social  media fanning economic and financial flames, even when the fire itself is small. There are other, distinct, costs that arise from a loss of trust in the economy, financial system and the institutions charged with safeguarding them. All businesses and policy institutions exist courtesy of a social contract with society. That contract is maintained not by law but by trust. A loss of trust in institutions is important because it is a breach of that social contract and signals an erosion of social capital. That puts the loss of trust in institutions over recent years into sobering context. The associated breach of social contract explains why the legitimacy of businesses and public institutions has been called into  35  Akerlof and Shiller (2009). Shiller (2017). 37 For example, Aral and Nicolaides (2017) find evidence that exercise is socially contagious. Christakis and Fowler (2007) find that social networks can allow obesity to spread. 38 Bailey et al (forthcoming). 36  7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7  question. 39  The accompanying loss of social capital could carry significant societal costs. The absence of  institutions endowed with such social capital has, historically at least, been the reason Why Nations Fail.

Gillian added a crucial qualifier: improved understanding of the public by those in finance was every bit as important as improved public understanding of finance. I think this is bang on and not just in the field of finance. Listening is every bit as important as talking when it comes to public policy. The most important reason for this is the most obvious – as policymakers, we stand to learn something. Indeed, because the voices of non-experts are rarely heard and are likely to convey different information than that available from experts, we potentially stand to learn a lot. This is not just conjecture. Statistical studies, drawn from a great many different environments and involving very different decisions, show it to be the case. Expert opinion is an essential starting point for good decision-making. But only a starting point. The judgements of experts can be improved materially by drawing on the views of non-experts. 46  Doing so is the key to what Philip Tetlock calls “super-forecasting.”  More fundamentally, non-experts are us. By numbers, if not salaries, they represent almost all of society. Non-experts do most of the spending and saving in the economy, shaping its growth. It is their wage and inflation expectations that determine whether central banks meet their inflation targets. And it is their trust that needs to be nurtured, and recaptured, if policy institutions are to maintain their legitimacy. Yet extracting views on the economy from non-experts is not easy.
Figure 4 Current account balance (percent of GDP) Developed economies  Emerging economies  Emerging economies  6  15  4  10  2  5  0  0  -2  -5  -4  -10  -6  -15 80  83  86  89  92  95  98  01  04  07  10(f) 13(f)  (f) Forecast. Source: International Monetary Fund (WEO, April 2010). 8  BIS Review 124/2010  Figure 5 Capital Adequacy Distribution Chilean Banking System - Basel II estimate 14  8% 12 12 10 8 6  26% 5  4  1%  23%  2  2  9 - 10%  10 - 11%  42% 4  2 0 11 - 12%  Above the bar: Percentage of total assets. Source: SBIF, BCCh. June 2010  12 - 13%  > 13%  Total capital to RWA  Table 1 Current capital standing of the Chilean banking industry  BIS Review 124/2010  9  References Cowan, K. and J. De Gregorio (2007), “International Borrowing, Capital Controls and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile”, in S. Edwards (ed. ), Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, NBER and The University of Chicago Press. De Gregorio, J. (2010a), “Tackling the Capital Inflow Challenge”, Economic Policy paper N° 35, Central Bank of Chile. De Gregorio, J. (2010b), “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: An Emerging Markets Perspective”, International Finance, Vol. 13, N° 1, pp.

This then feeds back into wage growth in three ways: (i) through lower labour productivity, which depresses real wages, (ii) through a higher level of effective labour market slack and (iii), in an environment of high uncertainty, through employees and trade unions valuing job security more than higher wages – in particular after recessions where wage growth would likely have been negative for a while had it not been for downward nominal wage rigidity. Put differently, what we could be seeing today is a hysteresis in the euro area economy that has an effect on wages quite unlike that of “traditional” labour market hysteresis. The issue might not be so much that fewer “insiders” may be able to push aggregate wages up – which was a key insight of Blanchard and Summers’ earlier work. It is rather that hysteresis may be affecting labour markets through employers’ risk perceptions and subsequent hiring and investment choices, which have so far had the contrary effect of pushing wages down. But while this form of hysteresis might leave some workers working less than they would like, they remain – by and large – attached to the labour market. And by retaining their professional network and skills, they are less likely to become marginalised and, on aggregate, structural unemployment is less likely to become entrenched. This is what I mean when I say that the crisis may have caused scratches, but not necessarily scars.
Not only is it necessary for the cost of credit to be low, but also for households and companies to have access to it and to meet their financial obligations, because it is important not only for themselves but also for the soundness of the financial system as a whole. The importance of this interaction between the functioning of the financial market and economic activity is not limited to the short term. As we have stressed on several occasions, Chile faces an important challenge in terms of improving productivity and medium-term growth. To this end, the support of a stable, deep, liquid, efficient and inclusive financial system is of the essence. From a monetary policy standpoint, this is achieved by having stable, controlled inflation, in a context where the economy successfully smoothes business cycle fluctuations. From a financial policy perspective, there are many instances in which regulatory amendments can improve the efficiency and efficacy of the national financial system. 9  Considering a broad set of developed and emerging countries, Chile shows increasing levels of depth and access to its financial system according to various indicators, such as the loans to GDP ratio, market capitalization or number of bank accounts. However, there are always important challenges to be addressed, so we cannot overestimate the importance of recent or pending regulatory changes that will potentially help Chile to improve in this regard. A first series of measures has to do with the Law that defines actions to boost productivity, including some initiatives to deepen the financial market.

Page 1  Four Rs: Creating the conditions for long-term sustainable growth in the life annuity sector – speech by Charlotte Gerken Given at the 19th Annual Conference on Bulk Annuities  Page 2  Published on 26 May 2022  Charlotte Gerken talks about the long-term sustainable growth of the UK’s life annuity sector. She says that potential changes to regulations for UK insurers can support this. In her speech, she highlights the importance of: the responsibility of the board risk management resilience regulation  Speech Introduction Thank you for your introduction, and for inviting me back to the Bulk Purchase Annuities Conference. There is never a shortage of material to cover at this event given the challenges and, of course, opportunities that annuity business creates for the management of very long-term assets and liabilities. This year I am going to focus on the conditions for sustainable growth in the Bulk Purchase Annuity (BPA) sector – the Four Rs referred to in the title – Responsibility of the Board, Risk Management, Resilience and Regulation. Like last year, I will share insights we have gained from our supervisory analysis of the asset-related risks that annuity writers face. As you will be aware credit risk and its effective management continues to be one of the Prudential Regulation Authority’s (PRA’s) top priorities for the sector and – through the Matching Adjustment (MA) - it is also a topic of focus of the Solvency II reform[1] work.