samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In a macroeconomic context of weak demand, these rates, so far from 2%, not only endanger the current anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations, but also heighten the risks to price stability and hamper the economic recovery of the area as a whole. Economic recovery is even more difficult for countries that are in the process of correcting imbalances that built up in the past, and in particular for those, such as Spain, that have suffered competitiveness losses and need their prices and costs to fall relative to the euro area as a whole. To address these risks the ECB has in recent months taken further measures to make its highly expansionary monetary policy even more expansionary. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  As regards standard measures, the ECB has reduced the interest rate on its main refinancing operations to 0.05%, which is technically the lower bound for this rate. Also, the interest rate on the deposit facility, which is the rate at which the cash surpluses that credit institutions hold in their Eurosystem accounts are remunerated, stands at negative levels (–0.20%), which discourages the accumulation of such balances and stimulates lending. Recent actions also include non-standard measures: a new long-term financing facility specifically aimed at promoting greater lending to the private sector; and two asset purchase programmes, one for asset-backed securities and the other for different types of covered bonds. Finally, on 22 January, the ECB announced new monetary stimulus measures.

But our system is also remarkable for the magnitude of the costs, the incidence of those costs across the economy, the number of uninsured, and our poor performance on health outcomes even compared with less wealthy economies. To cite just one example, infant mortality rates in the United States are more than two times the level in Japan. In a world in which economic performance depends increasingly on flexibility and adaptability to change, we probably need to move to a system in which a change in employer or profession does not carry the substantial uncertainty it does today about how one will provide for one’s health and that of one’s family. This seems fundamental to the willingness of Americans to support the level of openness to trade and to change that is an essential part of our present and our future. A defining feature of the American economy has been our embrace of the market, and the recognition that market forces are, in general, the most effective way of allocating resources. But markets cannot solve all problems, and government policy plays an important role in how well markets function. The test of policy is not just in the incentives we create for competition and innovation, but also in the clarity and stability offered by the regulatory framework and in the quality of public goods that governments deliver.
However, I believe all of us who have experienced this environment have emerged with a very different lesson learnt. Indeed, we cannot overstate the extraordinary potential this setting offers to an institution such as ours which has always valued, and legitimately so, the soundness of its judgement. With that conviction, we should devote most of our efforts to forging closer insertion, collaboration and coordination-based links with our European partners with an essential aim in mind: to reinforce our weight and ability to influence decision-making. This is a challenge and it is also an opportunity, but it is above all a responsibility to support, from the vantage of the Banco de España, the project for European construction. The second objective has to do with our contribution to financial and macroeconomic stability. After an unprecedented financial crisis, the reputation of economic policymakers, of central banks in particular and, indeed, of the economics profession as a whole was enormously dented. 4/5  Testifying to this were the regulatory and institutional changes set in train to prevent similar situations from recurring. However, the real test, where we place our social prestige and credibility on the line, will involve us truly being able to identify risks and vulnerabilities in due time, being able to issue warnings about them and, within our remit, being able to act to mitigate them or to contribute decisively to other players acting when they must.

All this must be attained in a setting in which new developments and circumstances will be emerging – and they are in fact appearing already – to make our analytical and supervisory tasks more demanding. In any event, enjoying society’s trust and recognition will involve being able to respond successfully to this challenge. To be able to accomplish our mission and reach both objectives, the Banco de España is going to have to adapt. But such adaptation must also stand on sound pillars. The first of these pillars is our independence. Independence is a necessary condition for achieving the aforementioned objectives and it is independence alone that can offer us the best guarantees of success. Secondly, the exercise of independence should be underpinned by analysis and decisions based on the utmost intellectual rigour. This is also the best base from which to address the necessary accountability and transparency to society. Thirdly, we can only properly perform our dual role of members of the Eurosystem and public servants by the pursuit of excellence in our work and by promoting the excellence of our staff. Such excellence has been and is, no doubt, one of the hallmarks of this institution. It is my firm commitment to maintain and enhance the Bank’s human capital. To conclude, I shall adhere to the tradition launched by Governor Linde when he took office and end, as he did, with a quote.
Understanding developments in money markets is a crucial part of the Bank’s assessment of monetary and financial conditions. It is therefore of considerable importance to the Bank that robust, transparent measures of overnight interest rates are available. It is also in the interests of sterling markets more broadly that robust benchmarks are available. The two main existing sterling overnight benchmark interest rates, SONIA and RONIA, are based on the rates paid respectively on unsecured and secured deposits placed via brokers. The volume of transactions underpinning these benchmarks has fallen significantly in recent years, reflecting reduced money market activity as well as a decline in brokers’ share of that activity. The decline in transactions volumes raises questions about the long-term robustness of these benchmarks. That is of particular concern in respect of SONIA, which forms the basis of the sterling overnight indexed swap market, and is referenced in contracts with a gross notional outstanding value in excess of £  1  2  See http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/Pages/sterlingoperations/rfr/rfr.aspx. BIS central bankers’ speeches  In our view there is a clear need for a more secure and broad-based source of transactions data to support robust overnight benchmark interest rates in sterling markets. Accordingly, we have reached the conclusion that the Bank of England should collect each day, from banks and building societies active in sterling money markets, data on their sterling overnight deposit transactions.

These preliminary estimates suggest a one-off inflation impact of 1 to 2 percentage points. Moving forward, the impact would ride on the range of products affected, as well as, among other things, on the timeline: whether it would be a one-step or a two-step move. The many unknowns in this area prevent us from making any final estimates. When making this decision we certainly took into account that potential changes to the tax system are not impossible. These have been discussed and will be discussed moving forward. While we are on this subject, we would like to ask the Government to make the parameters of these initiatives known before they are implemented so these could be reflected in our monetary policy, enabling a consistent and smooth monetary policy stance. This is what we would like of the Government in relation to tax reforms. QUESTION from TASS Agency: When you reviewed lending to the economy, were you guided by certain adjustments to the macroeconomic forecast? Also, could you please comment on capital outflow. Were there any revisions in the three-year estimate? Thank you. ELVIRA NABIULLINA: Yes, we have indeed made some corrections. Overall, as I have noted, our assessment of 2017 is more positive, while 2018–2019 assumptions are unchanged. This does indeed translate into movement in various indicators. On the subject of lending, we are expecting growth, and we expect this growth to be gradual and sufficiently smooth.
Otherwise, persistently high public debt/GDP ratios will leave us chronically vulnerable to the possibility of adverse macrofinancial shocks arising in the future. This programme should include a clear definition of the budgetary objectives and their timeframe, along with details of the measures needed to attain them. It should also be based on a prudent forecast of macroeconomic developments. Further, it should include an appropriate response to possible slippage, and be compatible with an improvement in the quality of public finances. In this respect, it will be a priority on the expenditure side to subject the various items to exhaustive review, with the aim of identifying the areas in which there is room to improve efficiency. It is important that the recommendations further to AIReF’s assessments be taken into account as soon as possible. We also need a comprehensive review of the tax system, in order to improve its revenueraising capacity and its efficiency. Comparison with the other European countries can guide us here. And, once again, the results of AIReF’s recently published review of tax benefits are a significant contribution in this connection. 11  Conclusions In sum, following an unprecedented recession, we face a gradual recovery in the economy, which is still incomplete and uneven, and subject to high uncertainty. Against this background, the ECB’s actions since the onset of this crisis and the recent approval of the European recovery plan are also an unprecedented common European response.

On the one hand, over the past two years total output, or GDP, has been much weaker than expected. In fact, output has been broadly flat over that period. And the zig-zag pattern of quarterly growth rates of GDP that we have seen this year is likely to continue, as we may see on Thursday when figures for the third quarter are released. On the other hand, there are other more encouraging signs. First, the labour market gives a very different picture to that conveyed by the output data. In the private sector, more new jobs have been created than over any other two-year period since the mid-1990s. And in the past year, unemployment has been falling, and falling faster in Wales than in the United Kingdom as a whole. Second, inflation has now fallen back to 2.2%, close to our 2% target. Although recent increases in domestic energy and food prices are likely to leave it a little above target well into next year, the fall in inflation means that the squeeze on real takehome pay, which accounted for much of the weakness in consumer spending over the past two years, has eased somewhat. And retail sales figures are consistent with a pickup in consumer spending. The disparity between weak output growth and a buoyant labour market is not easy to explain. It is not the product of a switch from full-time to part-time jobs because total hours worked have risen at the same rate as employment.
The International Monetary Fund or the IMF has estimated the amount of money laundered worldwide to be in the region of 2% to 5% of global GDP annually or equivalent to USD800 billion to USD2 trillion a year. Indeed, the financial community now regards financial crime such as fraud, money laundering and terrorist financing, including cyber terrorism and crime, as one of the top operational risks that they face. While the direct cost of financial crimes to individual financial institutions may be substantial, it pales in comparison to the damage to the overall financial system that can arise from the failure to implement adequate measures to effectively combat financial crimes, in particular those relating to money laundering and terrorist financing. Such costs include reputational damage to the institution and country, loss of confidence of key stakeholders such as  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  depositors, investors and the public at large and perhaps more damaging, the loss of or restricted access to international financial system, including correspondent banking relationships. With the increasing trend by supranational bodies to publicly name jurisdictions that are seen to be uncooperative, and to call on their respective members and the broader international community to implement appropriate countermeasures in dealing with institutions and entities from these jurisdictions, the implications, both financially and socially, can be devastating to the countries concerned.

Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus: Raising the bar in compliance and enforcement Opening address by Ms Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the International Conference on Financial Crime and Terrorism Financing (IFCTF) 2011 – “Raising the Bar in Compliance and Enforcement”, Kuala Lumpur, 19 September 2011. *  *  *  It is my pleasure to wish all of you a warm welcome to this Third Annual International Conference on Financial Crime and Terrorism Financing. We are indeed privileged today to have the presence of Yang Berhormat Dato’ Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein, Minister of Home Affairs of Malaysia, who has kindly agreed to deliver the keynote address, and officiate the opening of this conference. His presence reflects the significance placed by the Government of Malaysia on the roles and contributions of the financial sector in supporting the national agenda to combat and reduce crime, particularly economic and financial crime as well as terrorist financing, which is crucial in maintaining the integrity and stability of our financial system. On behalf of the financial sector, I wish to extend our gratitude to Yang Berhormat Dato’ Seri for gracing today’s event. I also am heartened by the continuous and encouraging participation of the private and public sectors in this conference. Now in its third year, this conference has become a hallmark event that brings together various stakeholders in Malaysia and from abroad, to discuss issues relating to financial crimes and terrorist financing.
Sizeable interest rate cuts have been accompanied by large fiscal stimuli. But it does look as though this year’s GDP growth will have to be revised downwards. The outlook for 2002 is more uncertain but a downward revision is  2  BIS Review 82/2001  most probable. An illustration of the current uncertainty is the unusually wide spread between assessments of the American economy in recent years. Some forecasts envisage a very rapid recovery, with GDP growth already up at between 3 and 4 per cent next year in the United States; others foresee falling GDP. The picture in Sweden The Swedish economy is characterised by a relatively sharp slowdown and an appreciable depreciation of the krona in the past year. Another feature is that inflation is currently above 3 per cent and thus outside the upper tolerance limit for the Riksbank’s 2 per cent target. The high inflation at present is mainly, though not exclusively, a consequence of price increases that can be regarded as fairly transitory. The causes include foot-and-mouth disease, higher electricity prices and certain changes in the method for measuring electricity prices. Supply shocks of this kind normally do not have lasting effects on the rate of inflation. There is therefore reason to believe that when the increased price levels drop out of the twelve-month change figures between now and next spring, the figures will fall back from the relatively high rates at present.

As my colleague Daleep Singh has said, we have adhered to three principles: robust and proactive transparency, strong and effective corporate governance, and accountability to our stakeholders.18 The New York Fed's staff has worked hard—and sometimes around the clock—to give effect to these principles. I am proud of my colleagues, and continue to be humbled and inspired by their deep knowledge of their fields, their brilliant creativity, and their selfless commitment to the Fed's mission—notwithstanding many personal hardships. Reflections on the Fed's Pandemic Response The Fed's work is ongoing, but it is worth pausing to reflect on lessons learned from our experience so far. The extent of the Fed's efforts raises legitimate questions about the role of the nation's central bank. Some "Fed watchers" have opined that the Fed "has effectively shifted from lender of last resort for banks to a commercial banker of last resort for the broader economy. "19 I don't know if I would go that far. The "lender of last resort" function—framed definitively by Walter Bagehot in the late nineteenth century—is not the Federal Reserve's only purpose. As I mentioned earlier, the Fed's job is to support the "U.S. economy overall." The Fed's monetary policy https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2020/hel200625  1/4  The Federal Reserve’s Pandemic Response - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK  mandate, for example, addresses the national employment and inflation objectives. The Fed runs a payment system, FedWire, on which the global economy depends for clearing U.S. dollar transactions.
Clothing imports are not the only imports from low-cost countries that have exhibited strong growth. The share of our imports from these countries also seems to be rising for other goods, such as audiovisual equipment, furniture and white goods. This is pushing down the rise in prices for imported consumer goods. Structural changes in world trade have been important for the Norwegian economy, not least for the rise in prices for imported goods and services. We assume that the shift in imports towards low-cost countries will continue, with an attendant dampening effect on inflation. This effect will be countered by the increase in prices for oil and other commodities that is expected to result in a somewhat higher rise in producer and export prices among our trading partners. Monetary policy and the economic outlook in Norway and abroad Monetary policy in Norway is oriented towards low and stable inflation, with annual consumer price inflation of close to 2.5 per cent over time. This is also the most important contribution monetary policy can make to sound economic developments in the long term. Low and stable inflation provides the economy with a nominal anchor. This contributes to predictability for those who take decisions about saving and investment today, although the result of those decisions depends on how the economy develops in the future. In its conduct of monetary policy, Norges Bank operates a flexible inflation targeting regime, so that weight is given to both variability in inflation and variability in output and employment.

This has grown from around $ billion in December 2001 to over $ billion in December 2015 (according to IMF statistics). And this growth has been positive each year except for a decline during the last global financial crisis. In the same period, total portfolio investment assets held by investors from the Asia and Pacific region in these same European markets have grown from $ billion to over $ billion.3 Therefore, developments in each of our jurisdiction and region can have a significant spill-over impact on the other. Financial regulators form one important stakeholder group and platforms for dialogue and sharing such as in this forum will be helpful in promoting greater mutual understanding and cooperation. Importance of regulatory cooperation I am sure that everyone in this room will agree on the importance of regulatory exchanges and co-operation. Asia-Pacific jurisdictions including Singapore play host to many European financial institutions which are active and significant participants in our respective financial markets. Such crossborder and cross-region participation have benefitted both regions. For example, the recognition of LCH.Clearnet and the Singapore Exchange Derivatives Clearing by MAS and EU authorities, respectively, provide local market participants and European Financial Institutions a choice of where to clear their transactions. More importantly, the recognition will allow market participants to comply with their respective jurisdiction’s central clearing requirements when they are effected, thus avoiding duplicating or conflicting requirements.
Going forward, tight external financial conditions linked to inflation control and low fiscal policy space are expected to impact the global economy negatively. In this sense, credit dynamics in the developed economies anticipate a weak performance of activity and investment. Global financial conditions remain tight, although the volatility associated with the recent banking tensions has decreased. Compared with the March Report, long-term interest rates have shown mixed movements, as they have risen in developed countries and declined in the emerging world. Currencies also performed unevenly, while stock markets have generally traded higher. Nevertheless, developments in the U.S. banking system continue to be a source of uncertainty. Market sentiment  3  remains fragile, with doubts about the extent and magnitude of the latent vulnerabilities in the financial sector (figure 13). In Chile, the financial market has aligned itself with a scenario where inflation will converge to the 3% target and the MPR will begin a downward process in the second half of the year. Thus, both expert surveys and financial prices point to inflation converging to 3% within the two-year monetary policy horizon (figure 14). All this has taken place while the economy has continued to adjust and local uncertainty has diminished (figure 15). Worth noting is the local forex market, whose proper functioning has allowed the Central Bank to dismantle the position of the non-delivery forwards (NDF) program and begin a program of rebuilding international reserves to strengthen our country's international liquidity position.

Government bonds were swapped for covered bonds issued by banks and normal lending activity was restored. However, this was not the first time the Government had used swaps to stimulate the real economy. We did so around 200 years ago...  A swap of government bonds for privately issued securities was used already in 1819 when Norway emerged on the scene as a sovereign country after the Napoleonic wars. The 1819bonds were swapped for bills of exchange issued by farmers and merchants in the domestic market. With these bonds as collateral they managed to raise sufficient credit to import seed to secure important supplies to farmers and merchants in this difficult period in Norwegian economic history. This is a historical example of how financial markets underpin economic growth. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  More generally, financial markets contribute to economic growth in three ways:   They create credit to make it available for real investment.   They allocate credit to the most profitable investment projects.   And they improve risk sharing in the economy. The caveat is that they create the credit volumes that they find privately optimal, and allocate it to the projects that are most profitable to them. Neither the credit volume nor the credit allocation is necessarily socially optimal: this is one basic reason why financial markets are and should be regulated. The next question is: How strictly should they be regulated? When does regulation severely impair the positive effect from financial markets to economic growth?