samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
We believe it essential for financial market participants, businesses, and households to understand how our policy responds to changes in the economy and how we ensure price stability. To this end, beginning from April 2021, the Bank of Russia publishes the projected path of the key rate as one of the indicators of its medium-term forecast. We have also systematised and released the materials about the model-based approaches we apply to build our forecasts. People’s confidence in the monetary policy pursued is critical to anchor inflation expectations, reduce the inflation risk premium, and maintain interest rates at a moderate level. The Monetary Policy Guidelines we present annually promote this confidence. Economic situation in 2020–2021 For the second consecutive year, the global economy has been developing in the conditions of the coronavirus pandemic. The main problem a year ago was plummeting aggregate demand, whereas the major challenge since the beginning of this year has been increasingly higher inflationary pressure. Russia is no exception. After the downturn of last year, our economy has swiftly recovered. The rebound was faster than many expected. Russia’s GDP returned to its pre-crisis level as early as 2021 Q2, despite the remaining oil production cuts under the OPEC+ deal. This rise was driven by, among other things, fiscal support measures and accommodative monetary policy.

Criteria 3, 4 and 5 introduce conditions that cannot easily be observed. We have to apply judgement. The criteria contribute to consistency and structure the discussion. The Riksbank also applies judgement when selecting the interest rate path. But Svensson does not discuss possible shortcomings in the macroeconomic model. In Chart 10, he shows how the various interest rate paths, differing by around ½ percentage point in the period to summer, could result in differences in the inflation rate of close to 4 percentage points as early as next autumn. Monetary policy seems to be having a very strong impact. It would be interesting to hear whether he thinks that relying so heavily on such a model in interest rate setting is robust, and how possible errors in the model should be guarded against. We also know from experience that market participants’ perceptions can differ from ours, particularly somewhat further ahead. There can be a variety of reasons for these differences and Svensson discusses a number of them. It would also be useful to study the volatility surrounding publication of key macroeconomic variables. We would prefer to see lower volatility around monetary policy meetings, and that any surprises are postponed to a time closer to the publication of new macroeconomic data. Solberg Johansen (2008) – winner of the Bertil Ohlin prize for best thesis in international economics at the Stockholm School of Economics – examines volatility in the yield curve.
Durmuş Yilmaz: Globalization and monetary policy Speech by Mr Durmuş Yilmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the conference on “Globalization, Inflation and Monetary Policy”, Istanbul, 21 November 2008. *  *  *  Dear Guests, I would like to welcome you all to the conference on “Globalization, Inflation and Monetary Policy”, organized by the Central Bank of Turkey. This conference will host a select group of central bankers, experts and academics today and tomorrow. It is a great pleasure for us to host this conference and such a distinguished group of participants. During these two days we will have the opportunity to discuss the globalization and monetary policy aspects in the context of current financial turmoil. Dear Guests, We have in the midst of fast changing economic agenda. When invited to an international conference in the Spring of 2008, I was requested to make a speech on inflationist pressures faced by world economies. The title of the session was “Inflation: Is it back to stay?”. In Fall 2008, a few weeks before the start of the conference, the organizers informed me that they had changed the theme of the conference. The new title was “How to cope with deflationary risks?”. In a very short span, the main talking points of the policy makers have shifted from “decoupling”, “high energy prices” and “food inflation” to “deflation”, “recession” and “credit crunch”. Today, international financial system shaped more and more by globalization is on the brink of a crucial stage.

But exchange rate and other supporting policies that promote the accumulation of foreign reserves, intentional or otherwise, are questionable in terms of their sustainability, just as we all question the sustainability of the current global imbalance, or rather, the sustainability of the US external imbalance. They are, arguably, the two sides of the same problem. From whichever side you are looking at it, a problem that is considered unsustainable will, of course, be corrected, sooner or later, and the questions we all would like to have answers to are how, and how violent or benign the inevitable market adjustment might be. I am afraid I do not have answers to these questions. But I just would like to point out, in this connection, that the style of management of foreign reserves, when the exchange rate of the domestic currency is flexible, is likely to be more proactive than is otherwise the case, in terms of for example currency allocation. Managers of foreign reserves are ultimately held accountable to the people they serve, and the amounts, as I pointed out at the beginning of this survey on Asian finance, are getting to be very large indeed. They are, possibly, large enough to make a difference to the dynamics of the global markets for foreign exchange and for major classes of financial instruments, and enough to make a lot of people with the relevant responsibilities feel uneasy.
Seasonally-adjusted data Source: Statistics Sweden. 1  Long-run sustainable unemployment rate here refers to the level of unemployment that is expected to prevail when all cyclical shocks have abated, when ongoing structural changes have had a full impact and when inflation expectations are equal to the actual rate of inflation. See for example “The long-term development of the Swedish labour market”, Monetary Policy Report, July 2012. See also “Correction of the Riksbank’s estimate of the long-run sustainable employment rate”, Appendix 2 of the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, July 2012, for a discussion of the role of expectations in the assessment of the long-run sustainable unemployment rate. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Unemployment has also begun to increase again in recent months and our latest forecast predicts that it will increase further to reach 8.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year. Figure 3. CPIF inflation in Sweden Annual percentage change 4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  Note. The series refers to monthly data. Source: Statistics Sweden. Developments thus indicate that we have had spare capacity on the labour market since 2008. This is one of the reasons why inflation has been low in recent years. It also appears that inflation has in principle shown a downward trend since 2008.

Public sector net lending in Sweden, the euro area and the United States Per cent of GDP 4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4  -6  -6  -8  -8  -10  -10  UK Euro area  -12  -12  USA Sweden  -14  -14 99  00  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  Source: IMF WEO, October 2012. It is important in this context to remember that the primary aim of the fiscal-policy framework that we have in Sweden is to make public finances sustainable in the long term. Prior to the financial crisis, the greatest threat to the long-term sustainability of public finances appeared to be an ageing population.7 An ageing population increases the demands on the public sector at the same time as the extent to which the sector can be funded by taxes on employment income decreases. However, the experience gained in countries where the need to rescue systemicallyimportant banks has exerted great pressure on public finances has given us a somewhat different perspective. In a country like Sweden, which has a large banking system in relation to the size of the economy, a banking crisis could quickly have a devastating effect on public finances. Given this, the risk of a financial crisis is therefore perhaps the greatest potential risk to the long-term sustainability of public finances.
Since the financial crisis and subsequent recession, another factor likely to have contributed to depressing yields is the sharp decline in investment, prompted by the deterioration in the outlook and heightened uncertainty. To date the recovery has been painfully slow, with negligible growth in the United Kingdom over the past year and a half. And though there is some variation in the pace of recovery across countries, in general growth has been weaker than after a normal cyclical downturn. In part that reflects the fact that recoveries after financial crises tend to be weaker and more drawn out as balance sheets are repaired, but also it probably reflects the exceptional uncertainty in the aftermath of the financial crisis. It is consequently hard to know when the animal spirits of businesses, and with it the propensity to invest, are likely to revive. Certainly the impact of QE on yields should ultimately reverse when the economic environment improves and we start to sell the gilts back to the market in order to withdraw the present exceptional monetary stimulus. Unfortunately, with the present heightened uncertainty associated with the problems in the euro area, the likely future date for us to commence selling gilts has receded somewhat. And if conditions do deteriorate significantly, we may need to re-start the programme of purchases. Indeed, as the minutes released earlier today reveal, the decision at our May meeting not to extend the programme was already quite finely balanced.

What is probably more relevant to the supply of credit at the current juncture is the amount of bank capital and the cost and availability of bank funding. QE may then boost credit supply indirectly if it leads investors to increase their demand for bank debt and equity. As you will be aware, the Monetary Policy Committee has so far purchased £ billion of gilts, £ billion in a first phase during the worst of the recession in 2009 (QE1) and £ billion in a second phase as the economy slowed at the end of last year and which was  1  Cash can be thought of a zero-interest perpetuity issued by the state. But it has value because it can be used in transactions. The MPC’s asset purchases are actually financed by issuing bank reserves which pay Bank Rate rather than nothing and which can be easily converted into cash. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  completed shortly before our latest policy meeting (QE2). To give some context, that represents around a quarter of the total stock of UK government debt in issue. It is, though, important to remember that throughout this time the Debt Management Office has been issuing substantial net quantities of new gilts in order to fund the Government’s budget deficit. So, despite the scale of our purchases, the stock of conventional gilts held by the private sector is actually higher now than when we started our purchases (see Chart 1). What impact have our purchases had on asset prices?
Not that I want to defend the past economic regime in any way, of course, but let’s not forget that it had elements which can be traced back at least implicitly to the pre-war period. An explicit return to the three traditions I mentioned is the central feature of our post-1989 economic history. Many of us clearly remember that the liberalisation of prices and foreign trade in 1991 was accompanied by effective stabilisation measures. These included an appropriate devaluation of the koruna against a basket of currencies and the maintenance of balanced budgets or even slight surpluses. It is therefore no accident that in 1991 inflation was “only” 56% here, as compared to triple figures in Poland and often quadruple figures in other transforming 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  economies. The Czech National Bank embraced the legacy of price stability right from its establishment in 1993. The maintenance of a fixed exchange rate until 1997 was a condition for attaining singledigit inflation and provided a fixed point in the unstable transformation environment. The switch to inflation targeting in 1998 marked the start of a roughly ten-year transition to price stability according to the definition long applied in advanced market economies. Maintaining price stability is not just our constitutional duty, but a long-standing legacy that we proudly embrace. The second feature of our economic history that I mentioned at the start is an ability to cope with the consequences of the struggle for economic independence.

Before I move on to my personal reflections on the situation in the Swedish economy, I would like to say that I make the same assessment of the economic outlook in Sweden as that made by the majority of the members of the Executive Board at the latest monetary policy meeting. This assessment is that there will be relative low inflationary pressures and slow growth in the period ahead. It was expected that the Swedish economy would slow down at the end of last year, but the slowdown was more severe than we believed it would be. In the December forecast the Riksbank predicted that growth would decline and that there was some probability of a further repo-rate cut in February. In February, our assessment was that the slowdown in growth in late 2011 had been even more severe. This was because the indicators for exports, among other things, suggested this. I therefore voted with the majority to cut the repo rate by a further 0.25 percentage points. Since then, we have learned that the outcome for GDP growth in the last quarter of 2011 was even worse than we expected at the time of the monetary policy meeting in February. This is largely because exports were even weaker than expected. However, we have also received outcomes for foreign trade in January which indicate that exports strengthened again after the turn of the year.
Nonetheless, we have worked hard over the past years to clarify the rules, to simplify those thought to be the most complex, and to provide options for those wishing to use a simpler approach. In fact, as the Basel Committee demonstrated in an annex to the third consultative paper, supervisors can select  BIS Review 68/2004  3  options that would result in a very simple set of rules that can be specified in just 12 pages of text. That is approximately half the length of the original 1988 Accord. The “simplified standardised approach”, as we call it, is intended to be useful for those countries that do not wish to adopt all of the options available under the new framework. The trade-off, however, reflects the fact that the policy balance at stake is between simplicity and risk-sensitivity; if one chooses simpler rules, the cost is less sensitivity to risk and hence greater conservatism in capital requirements. Competition and consistency of application Another broad concern that the Committee has worked to address is Basel II’s impact on global competition. In particular, some have asked whether banks that choose Basel II’s advanced approaches will enjoy benefits over those that choose simpler approaches. Others have wondered whether banks that remain on the 1988 Accord for some time will be disadvantaged. To respond to these concerns, we should understand that adopting an advanced approach does not automatically reduce a bank’s capital requirements. Basel II is intended to align capital requirements more closely to risk.

Jaime Caruana: Basel II - emerging market perspectives Keynote remarks by Mr Jaime Caruana, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, for a panel discussion on “Basel II - Emerging Market Perspectives”, Bankers’ Conference 2004, New Delhi, 11 November 2004. *  *  *  Thank you, for your kind introduction and opening thoughts on the significance of the new capital framework in emerging market countries. I would like to thank as well the Indian Bankers Association and our host institution, Punjab National Bank, for inviting me to take part in your conference. It is an honour to be asked to share some of my thoughts on Basel II and its implications for a country such as India. I must confess that it is a still greater privilege for me to hear your thoughts directly on this new standard and the role it may play in a large, rapidly growing dynamic economy. A discussion on India adds the perspective of a country whose banking sector has been undergoing an important period of transition. The scale of that transformation is evident in the global aspirations that Indian banking organisations are now pursuing, as the title of this conference suggests. I would like to continue our discussion of Basel II first by discussing briefly why the Committee felt that the international capital standard needed to be revised and how Basel II addresses the Committee’s goals for it.
MAS estimates that there will be more than 9,400 new hiring opportunities for permanent roles in the financial sector in 2022 [4] . More than 3,000 jobs will be in technology. Software developers and engineers continue to have the highest demand, with more than 700 opportunities. They support a wide range of exciting activities, such as designing and developing digital finance services; applying blockchain technology in trade finance; and using artificial intelligence to detect fraud and money laundering. There will also be interesting new roles in sustainable finance. These range from execution of ESG transactions to advisory services and product development. Many of these jobs will draw on traditional finance expertise such as product structuring, risk management, reporting and pricing, but layered and infused with new knowledge on sustainability. The competition for talent is global. The skills in many areas of finance – especially technology and sustainability – are scarce everywhere. This is why supporting our financial institutions to access the talent they need to grow and thrive is a key priority for MAS. To continue growing as a leading international financial centre in Asia, we need a future-ready workforce – comprising a strong Singaporean Core complemented by a pool of deep and diverse global talent. Let me highlight our efforts in the two limbs of our strategy: first, growing a strong local talent pool; and second, attracting high quality global talent.

She then pivoted to a role in sustainability, advising clients on developing their sustainability strategies and carbon credit verification projects, a role that drew on her audit skills and new knowledge acquired from completing a master’s degree in Environmental Management. Edris is now Head of ESG Research at Maitri Asset Management overseeing the firm’s ESG investment framework. MAS, Workforce Singapore (WSG) and the Institute of Banking & Finance (IBF) have been working together to support more systematically such mid-career transitions to the financial sector. One key initiative is the Technology in Finance Immersion Programme (TFIP), which has seen promising results. 90% of the 2019 cohort who were from non-tech jobs completed the programme and have taken on good tech jobs in financial institutions. Another 530 are going through the programme from the 2020 and 2021 runs. I am pleased to say that IBF is launching the fourth run of this programme this year, with close to 700 training places – which is double the number offered last year. IBF and WSG will also launch a new Wealth Management Accelerator Programme (WMAP, pronounced as “We-MAP”). WMAP targets mid-career professionals with a passion for customer relationship management and an interest in pursuing a career in wealth management. The three-month programme will include structured and on-the-job training to provide participants with the skills to be licensed and hired into relationship management roles. Seven major retail banks are participating in this inaugural programme, to fill close to 200 job roles.
Sabine Lautenschläger: Countdown to November – European supervision ready for lift-off Speech by Ms Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Handelsblatt Konferenz “Banken im Umbruch”, Frankfurt am Main, 3 September 2014. *  *  *  Summary European banking supervision will draw on the long-standing experience of 18 – soon 19 – Member States and incorporate it into a new European supervisory culture, said Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) in a speech at the “Banken im Umbruch” conference in Frankfurt am Main. A significant advantage of the new Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) is the possibility to make cross-country comparisons. “I am not just thinking of the assessment of specific portfolios here, but also of the early identification of risks, which only become visible, or are at least easier to identify, in horizontal analysis”, she said. The asset quality review has already given us a deeper insight into the banks’ procedures, thereby making it possible for us to check “which differences between banks are justified and to ascertain where we need to probe critically”. Ms Lautenschläger stressed that, although decision-making in the new European banking supervision will be organised centrally, the SSM can build on regional knowledge and experience. “As national supervisory authorities participate in the supervisory process, the ECB remains close to regional market and banking structures”, she said. Also in terms of staffing, the SSM will bring together people from different supervisory cultures.

Also, I invite you to maintain your positive approach to expand financing to the Albanian economy in addition to qualitatively increasing the banking products in a quantitative manner. *** Dear ladies and gentlemen, Year 2022 as well triggered some unexpected shocks for the banking sector (the war in Ukraine, fluctuations in markets of financial instruments and recently the increase in interest rates). The banking sector, despite the lingering effect of these shocks on the profitability rate, re-affirmed once more the stability and the security this sector provides to depositors and investors. Throughout 2022, the activity of banking sector recorded a prudential increase across all indicators, above 6% growth of total assets and similar expansion rates in main items. The funds of individual depositors, who preferred the foreign currency as the main instrument of their savings, largely underpinned this upturn. The financing manner of credit portfolio and the upsurge in the foreign currency investments in securities reflected the ample supply in foreign currency. The amount of non-performing loans reduced again this year, by around ALL 2 billion, thus strengthening the stability of this multi-year trend, further down to 5%, from 5.68%. In 2022, the portfolio of financial instruments - unlike the previous years - provided a negative contribution to the overall level of banking system profitability. The interest rate hikes and the uncertainties caused by the war in Ukraine yielded subsequent shocks to the market values of these portfolios.