This policy of “prepare and decide” has subsequently been confirmed by the publication of a National Changeover Plan, which sets out the key steps that would be involved in the transition following a positive decision on UK entry. This remains the Government’s policy. In the meantime, we continue to pursue macro-economic - both fiscal and monetary - stability and supply-side flexibility alongside our European partners, in our own national economic interest, which will also help to bring about closer convergence between our economies. Over the past seven years or so we have in the UK achieved the longest period of sustained low inflation we’ve known for a generation. Retail price inflation - on the Government’s target measure has averaged 2.6% since the beginning of 1993 and is currently running at 2.2%, or only 1% on the European harmonised index of consumer prices. But alongside low inflation we’ve had the lowest nominal interest rates that most of us can remember. Short-term rates have averaged some 6¼% since the MPC’s first decision in June 1997 compared with some 9.25% over the preceding decade. And 10 year government bond yields have fallen, with inflationary expectations, to around 5¼%, which apart from a brief period last year is the lowest they’ve been for nearly 40 years. Much more fundamentally we’ve enjoyed the longest period of uninterrupted, quarter by quarter, economic growth since records began some 45 years ago - with annual growth since Q3 1992 averaging 2.8% - between ¼ and ½% above most estimates of our underlying trend rate.

Besides leading Nat Cat DAX, ICRM has been involved in 16 core research projects – such as conducting seismic analysis for Sumatra and flood risk assessment for Jakarta. A number of other local and global initiatives aimed at building disaster risk resilience is being undertaken in Singapore: Recently, the industry, led by Lloyds, signed a Natural Catastrophe Statement of Intent with MAS and UK Trade and Investment to promote the development of natural catastrophe insurance in regional markets. As part of the SOI, eight Lloyds Syndicates have committed $ million in natural catastrophe capacity in emerging markets, including Asia. An integrated ASEAN market Fourth, improving market access. ASEAN countries are working together to open up insurance market access within ASEAN, enabling greater risk diversification beyond national boundaries. Diversification is critical to building resilience. Last year, ASEAN member states made a commitment to liberalise by 2025 the crossborder supply of international Maritime, Aviation and Goods-in-Transit or MAT insurance, catastrophe reinsurance and remaining classes of reinsurance. The majority of ASEAN member states have already committed to liberalise MAT insurance; and are aiming to substantially liberalise catastrophe reinsurance by 2019. Conclusion Insuring Asia against natural catastrophe is a most worthwhile endeavour. The growth and prosperity that Asia has achieved over the last three to four decades can potentially be set back by the economic and social disruptions that natural disasters unleash on a periodic basis. We must put in place mechanisms for the effective assessment, management, and transfer of 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  disaster risks.