samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This distortion of the payment burden  1  The reason I am using 1996 as a starting point is that it is only from this year that price data is available for tenant-owned apartments. Price statistics for tenant-owned apartment are based on data from www.maklarstatistik.se. House prices are measured using Statistics Sweden's property price index for permanent houses. 2  See also Financial Stability Report 2005:2 for a detailed discussion of the Swedish housing market. 2  BIS Review 105/2006  towards the period directly after the loan has been taken thus acts as a liquidity restriction. Now that nominal interest rates have become much lower, the payment burden has become more evenly distributed over time, which means that this liquidity restriction is not as strictly binding and it is therefore possible for households to take out larger loans that can be used to finance housing purchases. This in turn pushes up prices. Another reason why house prices have risen is the good development in the Swedish real economy since the crisis at the beginning of the 1990s. Despite the fact that unemployment has become entrenched at a high level by Swedish standards, households’ disposable incomes have increased significantly. This has of course increased households’ payment ability and the demand for housing. A third reason is the limited construction of new housing. This in turn is partly an after-effect of the bank and property crises, but is primarily linked to the changeover in housing policy during the 1990s.

Real prices for office premises in central locations (index 1981=100) 500  450  400  350  300  250  200  150  100  50  Stockholm  Göteborg  c05 de  03 c-  de  c04  02 cde  de  c01  c00 de  de  98  c99 de  97  cde  de  c-  96 cde  c95  c94 de  de  92  c93 de  cde  de  c-  91  90  c89  cde  c88 de  de  86  c87  c-  de  c-  85 de  de  c84 de  c83 de  c81 de  de  c82  0  Malmö  Sources: NewSec AB and the Riksbank  6  BIS Review 105/2006  3.
This information helps individuals and businesses to increase their awareness on the number of ways to save and invest their financial resources, as well as how to manage their financial affairs safely in an increasingly digitized environment. Ladies and Gentlemen, technology and innovation in the financial sector has played a major role in raising the level of financial inclusion in the country over the last five years. According to the FinScope 2020 Survey, while overall financial inclusion increased to 69.4 percent, from 59.3 percent in 2015, formal financial inclusion rose significantly to 61.3 percent from 38.2 percent. This was largely due to the uptake of mobile money, which went up exponentially by 58.4 percent from 14.0 percent. Invited Guests, the use of digital financial platforms for the payment of retail and public services, including Government services has significant benefits to consumers and service providers alike. Digital platforms facilitate relatively safe, efficient and  2/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  convenient service delivery and allows for tracking of financial transactions. With regard to Government related services, the use of digital platforms is expected to enhance revenue collection and contribute positively to the national Treasury. This notwithstanding, the rise in the use of Digital Financial Services has also introduced significant risks for individuals as well as for financial service providers. To address these risks, there is greater need to enhance cyber security and raise awareness about fraud to secure higher uptake and protect the consumers of digital financial services.

AERC’s devotion to advanced policy research and training in the field of economics in Africahas built capacity in many institutions of economic management and academia in many of our countries. Today, there is no major economic and financial institution in Africa that does not boast of an AERC alumni. This could not have been possible if individual institutions across Africa were to pursue training on their own accord. This goes to show how important collaboration is in leveraging capabilities and realising the set objectives for African countries. Once again AERC is showing its valuable existence by bringing together a panel of experts from all over the world to come and share ideas on how to address the causes of the global financial crisis, short, medium and long term consequences for the global economy, the impact of the crisis on African economies, implications for growth and development of the continent’s financial sector as well as policy options. Ladies and Gentlemen, this seminar could not have come at a more opportune time than when all our economies are faced with the challenges emanating from the impact of the global financial and economic crisis. This seminar is unique in the sense that it has been organised to specifically address the effects of the crisis. We feel particularly honoured to host this important event. Chairperson, the ongoing economic crisis is not of Africa’s making but arose from advanced economies like the United States of America and United Kingdom.
In summary, the combination of a flexible exchange rate, a prudent fiscal policy, a solid financial system and a monetary policy based on inflation targeting, contribute to stabilize the economy, and particularly to reduce the impact of copper price fluctuations on domestic activity. 4  4  The economic and social stabilization fund and the pension reserve fund. BIS Review 106/2009  Conclusions The effect on economic growth of natural resource abundance has been at the center of the world’s economic debate throughout the years. This issue is also greatly important for Chile, especially because of our mineral resources and copper ores. As international research studies have found, natural resource dependence may have destabilizing effects on the economy, and, hence, result in reduced growth. The critical connection between these two variables is institutions. When weak, the abundance of natural resources may have negative effects on macroeconomic stability and growth. But when the institutions and the policies are adequate, natural resources are an enormous source of benefits for the country, as copper has proven to be for Chile. The fiscal rule, the inflation targeting regime, and the floating exchange rate have cushioned the impact of copper price swings on the domestic economic cycle. Therefore, it is no surprise that in the past few years economic growth was slower compared to previous copper price booms. This same stabilizing effect allowed the economy to grow by an average of over 3% in the early 2000s, when the price of copper was at is lowest level since the Great Depression.

José De Gregorio: Economic growth in Chile and copper Speech by Mr José De Gregorio, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, at the CESCO conference “1984-2009, 25 Años de la Industria del Cobre y su impacto en Chile”, Santiago, 1 September 2009. I thank Mariana García for her valuable contribution in preparing this work. *  *  *  I want to begin by thanking you for inviting me to this Conference celebrating the copper and mining research center CESCO’s twenty-fifth birthday. It is an honor to have the opportunity to speak about the impact of the mining industry, and of copper especially, on Chile’s development, given its importance for the country and in which I have great professional interest. Chile is abundant in natural resources. One of the most distinctive characteristics of our economy is its large mining sector, particularly of copper, which places it as the world’s main copper producer. As a country we were blessed by nature with this enormous treasure. But as with every benefit, there can be related costs and risks that must be assessed. For a long time, natural resources have been part of the discussion about economic development. Many years ago, natural resources were thought to be destined to a path of permanent price decline, which served as an argument to push forced industrialization. Such a vision proved to be based on wrong grounds. Nonetheless, development-related problems within the context of natural resource abundance have made their way back to the academic discussion in recent years.
Our unconventional policies were able to address market fragmentation and the ensuing financial disruption, hence facilitating the proper transmission of our monetary stance throughout the euro area. Huge intellectual efforts are constantly needed to improve and adapt our policies to changing environments. The current crisis is a stark reminder of this, not just for policy makers but also for economists and academics. This is the very reason why the Bundesbank President, Jens Weidmann and I have high expectations for this two-day conference. Ladies and Gentlemen, dear colleagues, thank you for your attention. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches

–  They are also collaborating with or buying over FinTech companies to tap their technologies. Financial technology, or FinTech, may well be the best hope for the future of finance. •  The financial industry is facing many headwinds –  •  slower economic growth, narrower margins, tighter regulation, and greater competition from outside. FinTech can potentially help the financial industry regain its dynamism and at the same time purposefully serve the economy and the people. But the FinTech phenomenon is not without risk. •  The rapid pace of innovation and adoption throw up many questions for the industry and financial regulators. •  What should be the policy approach? Will speak from the perspective of MAS. First – take a differentiated approach to different technologies and their applications. FinTech encompasses a wide range of technologies: we cannot take a “one-size-fits-all” approach. The nature of technologies, their benefits, and risks are very different. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  •  Digital payments, digital currencies – they pose issues of authentication, identity  •  P2P lending platforms, crowdfunding – there are implications for consumer protection and fraud risk  •  Cloud computing, big data – there is the issue of cyber security  •  E-trading platforms, algorithmic trading – there are implications for market functioning, both good and bad. •  Blockchains and distributed ledgers systems (DLS) – this is potentially the most transformative innovation, at least until artificial intelligence comes along in a big way.
Some analysts believe these indirect effects could be even larger than the direct effects. The impact of the trade conflict between the US and China will be felt across Asia – through three key channels: disruptions in supply chains; slowdown in China; and firms holding back their capex plans. The tariffs imposed by the US on China are beginning to affect supply chains in Asia. China’s exports of tariff-hit goods to the US have fallen since the first tranche of tariffs announced last June. This is having knock-on effects on some firms in Southeast Asia which are deeply enmeshed in production networks that are linked to China. These firms are adversely affected as producers switch to alternative suppliers for essential parts and components. While there is talk of some Southeast Asian countries gaining from the diversion of US imports from China, this appears to be the case only for Vietnam. The other Southeast Asian economies have not seen an increase in exports of tariff-hit goods to the US. A slowdown in the Chinese economy is likely to have significant spill-over effects on Asia. Economic indicators have weakened across the board in China. A slower China will mean a slower Asia. China is Southeast Asia’s largest trading partner and a key source of investment and tourism. Heightened uncertainty over trade could significantly hold back firms’ capex plans. Various surveys of capex intentions point to a significant pullback in corporate investment this year.

Mr. McDonough’s address on the occasion of the 10th International Conference of Banking Supervisors Keynote address by Mr. William J. McDonough, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Chairman of the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision, on the occasion of the 10th International Conference of Banking Supervisors held in Sydney on 22/10/98. I am very honored to be here as Chairman of the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision and as the Chairman of this year’s International Conference of Banking Supervisors. These are unusually difficult and challenging times for bank supervisors around the globe. Turbulence in the financial markets has touched the banking system in virtually every country. To varying degrees and in many different contexts, bank supervisors are dealing with adjustments to their banking systems to assure their strength and vitality. At times like these, bank supervisors have a special role in maintaining financial stability. That role is to facilitate a resolution of banking problems so that the depository institutions will continue to provide the vital lifeline of credit to businesses and consumers. Past experience in many countries suggests that even severe problems can be overcome with decisive action by banks to identify problems quickly, recognize losses, strengthen the capital base, and execute a sound, forward-looking business strategy. Today, the supervisory community has the same challenge. We must identify the lessons to be learned from the current financial turmoil and address them.
Malik S and Meldrum A (2014) Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods, Bank of England working paper No. 518. McKinsey (2013) Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business and the global economy, https://shar.es/1rwoVu. Mokyr, J (2014) What http://on.wsj.com/1w66q1z. today’s  economic  gloomsayers  are  missing,  Rey (2013) Rey, Hélène (2013) Dilemma not Trilemma: the Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence, Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Rogoff (2015) Debt supercycle, not secular stagnation, http://www.voxeu.org/article/debtsupercycle-not-secular-stagnation#. Summers L (2014) US Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis and the Zero Lower Bound, Business Economics, Vol. 49 No.2, National Association for Business Economics. Wolf, M (2014) Radical cures for unusual economic ills, http://on.ft.com/1FoHqn1  BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Chart 1: Nominal gilt yields began a long period of decline in the 1970s Per cent Long-term UK gilt yields  18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2  1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010  0  Source: Barclays Equity Gilt Study 2015, Bloomberg and Bank Calculations. From 1899 to 1961 the gilt yield is annual observations based on the prices of undated British funds. From 1962 to 1991 it is annual observations based on a portfolio of stocks chosen to represent as closely as possible a 20-year security. From 1992 to present it is daily observations of the Bloomberg benchmark 20 year gilt.

The idea for building up the reserves was aired at the Central Bank’s annual meeting in March this year, so it should not come as a surprise. Given the scenario I have been describing, the Board of Governors seems to have ample justification for taking this pause to consider the position carefully and decide the next steps, not only with reference to the more positive assumptions that have now emerged since the July forecast, but also by examining the risks I have mentioned. If the current outlook holds and everyone stays alert and strong, inflation will be brought down over a relatively short period. The most important consideration is to achieve a satisfactory course for the exchange rate, whereby the current account deficit will primarily be reduced by increased exports, decreased imports of capital goods and a sufficiently tight stance to deter consumers from spending on other imports. The other and much less favourable way to adjust the current account would be through a sharp currency depreciation. Such action would have many uncomfortable side-effects which are well known. As yet, the former option is much more likely namely a soft landing.
7/29  The profitability data based on individual financial statements of business in Spain are also highly cyclical, even more so than those from the consolidated statements. This reflects the greater severity of the crisis in Spain than in other economies in which Spanish banks had exposures and highlights the benefits of diversification. Also apparent is a marked recovery in recent years, despite which in 2018 both ROE and ROA were still lower than before the crisis. The breakdown of the return on assets shows that the main determinant of the current low profitability of business in Spain compared with the pre-crisis period is a weakening of net interest income expressed as a proportion of assets, or net interest margin. This fall, concentrated between 2009 and 2013, was from 1.4% to 0.9%. The indicator then steadied at around 1% of total assets. The fall was attributable to several factors. 8/29  One factor is the increase in the relative share of non-performing assets, i.e. those that do not earn interest, such as NPLs or foreclosed assets. Specifically, between 2007 and 2013 the NPL ratio of business in Spain rose by nearly 13 pp. It then fell gradually, against a background of decreasing loan volume, and at mid-2019 stood at 5.3%, more than 8 pp below the ceiling reached in 2013. However, this ratio is still well above its precrisis level. Foreclosed assets have fallen by 50% from the high reached in 2011, but still amounted to nearly € billion in June 2019.

Fifth, we cannot overlook the potential role of international diversification, as shown by the part it has played in some of the largest Spanish banks in the last decade. Thus, over that period, the Spanish banking sector has increased its international exposure by 45%, while banks in countries such as Germany, France and Italy have reduced their international exposure by 38%, 16% and 15%, respectively. Despite the risks associated with business in emerging market economies, international diversification of banking business, especially when focused on retail business and organised in a decentralised manner, brings important benefits, in terms of greater diversity of business models and revenue sources, as was seen during the last crisis. In addition,  18/29  there is evidence that the lower the level of synchrony between the economic and financial cycles of the countries in which banks operate, the greater these benefits.5 In this respect a profound reflection at the European and the international level on the regulatory treatment of diversification in the banking business may be appropriate, so that, in conjunction with the greater complexity it may entail, some of its beneficial effects on banks’ risk profiles may be afforded better recognition. Sixth, nor should we overlook the importance of operational risk being correctly managed by banks. Operational risk accounts for 9.3% of the risk-weighted assets of Spanish deposit institutions by volume, slightly below the European average (10.5%). In any event, we know on past experience that the deterioration in solvency associated with an operational risk event can be high.
In the UK, for example, bank (and building society) deposits still account for 42% of personal sector liquid asset holdings against 50% a decade ago; the proportion would be very much higher if liquid assets included only those that are capital certain. And the vast bulk of the banks’ liabilities remain in the form of unsecured, short-term, deposits. Despite the rapid development of (secured) repo markets, only some 3% of the major UK banks’ funding (in sterling and foreign currency together) was secured (from information provided last Autumn) through repo; and the figure for all UK banks, including the business conducted in branches and subsidiaries of overseas banks, which have less direct access to deposits, was only around 8½%. The proportion of secured funding is below 5% for other major internationally active banks that we have looked at, with the exception of JP Morgan and Bankers Trust - both somewhat special cases - where the proportion is very  BIS Review 13/1997  -4-  much higher (25-35%). And even in those special cases it is still well below that for the major US securities firms (typically 55-80%). Banks remain, too, at the heart of payments systems. Payments may be made directly across bank accounts through instructions, for example, in the form of cheque or debit card; or they may be made indirectly, through, for example, the use of credit cards, the balances on which are subsequently settled using a bank account.

While we have seen some easing in the past couple of months as the impact of past energy price rises starts to recede, UK CPI inflation is still in double digits. That is unacceptably high. In line with its mandate, the MPC has taken action to bring inflation back to the 2% target on a sustainable basis. Over the past 18 months since I joined the MPC: we have raised Bank Rate by almost 400 basis points; we have halted asset purchases and started to run down the portfolio of assets held as a result of quantitative easing (QE); and we have changed the character of our communication about the economic outlook and its implications for policy. Taken all together, this represents a significant tightening of the monetary policy stance, commensurate to the significant challenges to price stability we have been and are facing. These challenges come from recent rises in European wholesale energy prices; from disruptions to global supply chains; from the strength of corporate pricing power; and from tightness in the UK labour market. All of these challenges continue to threaten or linger. The MPC has done a lot to address these challenges. But has it done enough? Famously, monetary policy works with ‘long and variable lags’. [1] As a result, much of the policy  Page 3  tightening announced by the MPC over the past year still has to work its way through to the economy in general, and to price developments in particular.