samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But if activity were rather to show signs of freshening, there is a risk of the existing high inflation continuing and being incorporated in our  2  BIS Review 15/2002  perceptions of inflation in the longer run, with possible effects on, for example, future wage negotiations. That of course must not happen. A scrutiny of the current cyclical picture reveals a growing number of signs that activity abroad, above all in the United States, is on the way to improving. This is something that also affects conditions for the Swedish economy. A majority of leading indicators point in that direction. Although the upward phase does contain risks to which I shall be returning, there is still a good deal of evidence that a recovery in the rest of the world as well as in Sweden may be on the way to materialising later this year. A factor that often contributes to a cyclical swing is movements in stocks. When stocks are plentiful and sales are falling, firms often cut back production so that this falls more than demand. In this way, stock adjustments initially accentuate the cyclical downturn. When the reduction of stocks ultimately comes to an end, firms may step up production again even though demand has not yet started to recover. This drives a cyclical upturn and perhaps it is just such a positive effect that may be on the way. There are signs of this in the United States in particular but also in Sweden.

However, as with productivity growth, there is a risk that we are underestimating the effects – this could mean that energy prices may continue to rise and that there could be contagion effects pushing up inflation further ahead. During 2007 rising unit labour costs will provide an increasing contribution to inflation and a couple of years ahead underlying inflation is expected to be in line with the target, given a gradual increase in the repo rate. Prospects for economic activity and inflation thus indicate that less expansionary monetary policy is called for in future. This will ensure that inflation is close to the target and that developments in the real  4  BIS Review 87/2006  economy are balanced. Given this, we chose, in line with the repo rate path expected by the market, to raise the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points at the monetary policy meeting in August. The assessment of the prospects for economic activity and inflation over the coming years that we made then showed it would be reasonable to also assume that the gradual repo rate increases will need to continue. I see no reason to change this assessment today. Thank you. BIS Review 87/2006  5
BIS Review 95/2008  5  I hope that this gives you a sense of the use we make of business surveys, and business intelligence more generally, in making our regular assessment of the state of the economy each month, before taking our decision on the appropriate level of Bank Rate. The timeliness of this information is particularly important at the current juncture, when the economic climate is changing rapidly. The global and UK economies have been subject to two large shocks of uncertain magnitude, duration and impact. The first is the continuing de-leveraging in the banking system and the attendant squeeze on the terms and availability of credit. The second is the fairly relentless rise in commodity prices, especially that of oil, driven in part by the robust growth in demand in the emerging economies. These two shocks both depress output growth, though they have divergent effects on inflation. In our May Inflation Report, our central expectation was for four-quarter GDP growth to slow markedly through this year, reflecting both subdued real income growth and tighter credit supply (see Chart 7, which also includes the same backcast information as Chart 6). It was then expected to gradually recover through 2009 as credit conditions slowly improved. The corresponding projection for CPI inflation is shown in Chart 8 (note that no uncertainty is shown for the past, as the data for CPI inflation are rarely revised).

The surveys are also useful in forming an assessment of the prospects for capital spending, as this is an area where statistical models are particularly poor – and I should know, having spent some of my formative years at the Treasury unsuccessfully trying to build econometric models to predict investment! Both the CBI and BCC surveys collect information on investment intentions, and it is also something we ask our Agents to take a view on, based on their contact interviews (see Chart 4). We look closely at this information when assessing the outlook for business investment. Other forward-looking questions can also prove valuable. For instance, at the current juncture, with CPI inflation well above our 2% target, we need to judge how much further it will rise and for how long that might persist. Past experience gives us some guide as to the speed at which higher commodity prices pass down the supply chain and the extent to which those movements are amplified or attenuated by movements in other costs and prices. But the questions on pricing intentions contained in the business surveys represent a valuable additional source of information on near-term inflation pressures. A third use of surveys is in helping the MPC diagnose the causes of recent developments. Here, the quarterly Industrial Trends survey stands out as particularly useful because it has a rich set of questions that explore companies concerns. For example, it has questions about the factors limiting investment, exports, and output.
This is the reason why promoting innovation requires us to look thoroughly at new technologies from an efficiency perspective as well as from a safety one, in line with our financial stability mandate, in order to ensure that they improve welfare in a sustainable manner. This applies in particular to the new trend towards the tokenisation of financial assets (i.e. security tokens), the creation of new tradable assets associated with new rights, such as utility tokens, new means of payments such as stablecoins and, more generally, all the new use cases referred to as decentralised finance. A series of private and public initiatives 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  tokenising financial assets have emerged in the world over the last three years, with the aim of generating new business opportunities, enhancing liquidity and improving the functioning of market infrastructures. We are, for example, currently analysing whether tokenisation can help with one of the major remaining inefficiencies, i.e. cross-border payments, which are still costly, incur long delays before settlement, and give rise to uncertainties on AML-FT checks. This is one of the top G20 priorities, and a solution based on new technologies and innovation could help us facilitate their transfer for the common good. But no sound and sustainable development is possible in a hazardous environment. And from that perspective, it is also  important to ensure that new risks are not brought to the financial system, such as liquidity fragmentation, negative collateral effects on harmonisation efforts and disruptive effects on the ecosystem.

We would like to see only a gradual increase in non-performing loans or a gradual decrease in credit quality, given the extent of the crisis. We try to make sure that this is a gradual process and nothing unexpected or unforeseen happens. Next: lay the foundation for the longer term Aside from an immediate task of keeping the recovery intact, the other thing we have been doing is to lay the foundation for the longer term. Specifically, we try to ensure that our financial sector responds well to the landscape post-Covid-19. It is hard to say how exactly the post-Covid-19 landscape would look like, but there are at least two trends that will become significant in the future. Firstly, the world will become much more digital, and secondly, there will be a much greater emphasis on sustainability. On this, we have published the Bank of Thailand’s financial landscape consultation paper that put out our view about how we see things evolving in the financial sector. The paper indicates what we want and do not want to see and what are the red lines in each of these areas that we regulate. In the digital space, the first element of our plan is an open competition. For instance, the current financial landscape in Thailand, as in many markets in the region, is dominated overwhelmingly by banks.
For the time being, that includes the survey of the most important exporters and importers, the inflation expectations survey, and the survey of banks' credit activity. The State Statistical Office contributed to  BIS Review 100/2006  3  the realization of part of the aforementioned surveys, by providing information and consultations, for which we are especially grateful. However, I would take this opportunity to ask the entities selected for the needs of these surveys to maintain and improve their cooperation with the Central Bank, since at the end of the day, those surveys serve for the needs of the entire economy, including themselves. Central banks are providers, but also massive users of statistical information and data, which will continue to be the case in the future, too. However, the nature of the information and data necessary for performing the tasks of the central banks constantly changes. Statistics departments are aware of this fact and in order to be able to take the new challenges and meet the new requirements they have to improve their knowledge and techniques continuously, and apply operational methods in accordance with the international standards and recommendations. It is a great task, which will never come to an end.

Gent Sejko: Supervisory policies after the start of the Banking Union – initial experiences and outlook for CESEE economies Intervention by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, in 6th ECB Conference on CESEE: “CESEE, old and new policy challenges”, session’s topic “Supervisory policies after the start of the Banking Union – initial experiences and outlook for CESEE economies”, Frankfurt am Main, 10 June 2015. *  *  *  Dear participants: I am honored and pleased to be in this important conference among distinguished professionals of banking and financial industry! I want to start by thanking the organizers for the invitation to be here, but also to congratulate the ECB on its new building: I wish it is as functional, as it is beautiful! Coming from the banking industry, I have been feeling the impact on the banking activity arising from the changing economic and financial environment due to recent global financial crisis. Since my appointment as the new Governor of the Bank of Albania at the beginning of this year, I have been seriously estimating the challenges we face in order to maintain the stability of our banking sector and ensure that it is fit to play its role in support of Albania’s economic growth. In my intervention today, I would like to share with you how we see the impact of changes in the financial landscape, including those in supervision superstructure, on the financial system of CESEE countries and more specifically on Albania’s one.
In recent years monetary policy has been assisted in the first place in that the consolidation of government finances has restored a stable foundation for economic policy; in addition, there has been the more direct restraint—in a cyclical perspective—on demand and price impulses. In recent decades that was by no means invariably the case. On the contrary, there were periods when fiscal policy accentuated the cyclical movements. I find it important to issue a warning about repeating mistakes of this type. In the middle of an economic upswing we are now hearing calls for expansionary fiscal policies in the form of increased public spending as well as unfinanced tax cuts. There are strong long-term grounds for using the upswing in activity to build up government surpluses as a buffer for harder times. That will increase our future freedom of action in economic policy. It will be easier to cope both with future economic downturns and with structural challenges such as an ageing population. A tighter fiscal policy also eases the burden on monetary policy and increases the probability in the years ahead of being able to continue to have low interest rates and a stable economic development, with good growth of production and employment. BIS Review 66/1998

Supervisors and global market participants face significant hurdles in exercising discipline on an entity whose operations span more than one jurisdiction. Business practices differ between countries. Legal systems may be unfamiliar. Deciphering balance sheets prepared under national accounting systems can be an extremely taxing undertaking. Considering those burdens alone, it is easy to agree that supervisory and market discipline would be more effective under more harmonious - if not completely harmonised - accounting rules. But the task is formidable. In our duty to safeguard and reinforce financial stability, central banks and financial supervisors have a legitimate interest in the quality of accounting standards and their effective implementation. We believe that in order to help fortify the financial system, accounting standards should support - or at least be consistent with - sound risk management and control practices in use in the industry. In addition, accounting standards should facilitate market discipline by providing a more transparent “window” into an organisation’s financial position and performance and likewise into its measures and management of risk exposures. Finally, accounting standards should facilitate the effective supervision of financial institutions. In the specific case of the insurance industry, I think it’s fair to say that almost all of us believe that, for international standards to be complete, we need a single, high quality standard developed to address insurance liabilities.
This is reflected in fairly strong growth in the level of expenditure, which is stronger than the rate of growth in mainland GDP that can normally be expected. In the November 2005 Inflation Report, Norges Bank published its own forecast for the interest rate for the first time. The forecast satisfies two main criteria: First, the interest rate is set with a view to stabilising inflation close to the target in the medium term. The horizon will depend on the shocks to which the economy is exposed and their effects on the path for inflation and the real economy ahead. Second, the interest rate path shall provide a reasonable balance between the path for inflation and the path for capacity utilisation. In the assessment, potential effects of property prices and the krone exchange rate on the prospects for output, employment and inflation are also taken into account. 6  BIS Review 139/2007  Even if Norges Bank presents an interest rate forecast, this does not mean that the interest rate will follow this precise path. The wage settlements may be different from what we envisaged, and there may be changes in the global economy, exchange rates, and petroleum and commodity prices that have an impact on the economy and the inflation outlook. This may result in a different interest rate path. In the press release following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 31 October, it was stated that underlying inflation has picked up but is lower than the inflation target.

To prevent interbank lending rates from rising too much, a number of central banks have increased their short-term lending to banks. In addition, the Federal Reserve has lowered its key rate by 0.75 percentage point in recent months. A further cut in the key rate in the US is now expected, and the interest rate is also expected to fall in the UK. In the euro area, market participants expect a more stable key rate ahead. But developments are not the same everywhere. The central banks in Sweden, Switzerland, Canada, New Zealand and China have raised their key rates. In Sweden, which has a lower interest rate level than our main trading partners, further interest rate hikes are expected. BIS Review 139/2007  5  The interest rate differential between Norway and other countries can have an impact on the krone exchange rate. In the short term, however, the factors that influence the krone exchange rate vary. High oil prices and krone appreciation appear at times to be related, but there have also been periods when the krone has appreciated while oil prices declined. The krone appreciated when the interest rate differential against other countries was high in 2002, but as interest rates in Norway moved down to the level among our trading partners, the value of the krone fell back. In the past, we have observed that market turbulence has occurred in tandem with a weaker krone.
One can say that these trends in principle function as prolonged positive supply shocks that affect the economy over a long, but nevertheless limited, period of time. However, the inflation rate does not depend on this type of trend or shock on the long run, but on how expansionary monetary policy is, regarded as an average over a long period of time. Inflation is, as they say, a monetary phenomenon. Let us assume the hypothetical case of two countries – one that is fully digitised and the other  13  The question of the effects of globalisation on inflation and monetary policy was discussed frequently in the years prior to the financial crisis. See, for example, the IMF (2006) and Mishkin (2009) for surveys. 14  However, it is still unclear to what extent inflation in the industrialised nations was actually affected by this. According to empirical studies, the effects appear to be relatively limited, see for instance the IMF (2006). BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  without any actual digital technology, let us say like Sweden in the middle of the last century. If the central banks in both countries conduct the same policy, there is no reason to assume that inflation would systematically be lower in the entirely digitised economy. On the other hand, it may very well be the case that there is downward pressure on inflation during the actual process when a country becomes increasingly digitised.

If one claims this, one is also implying that central banks and governments do not have the possibility to choose the level of the inflation target, but that this is something determined by structural conditions in the economy. Ultimately, one thus also says that inflation is not a monetary phenomenon, which does not concur with what is widely accepted today. Important to maintain confidence in the target A slightly milder interpretation is that one did not literally mean that the inflation target should be lowered, but that the Riksbank, and all other participants in the Swedish economy should accept that inflation will continue to undershoot the target over a long time to come – despite the fact that it has already been below the target for several years. The main reason would be that the expansionary monetary policy required to bring inflation up to the target would also contribute to a further increase in house prices and household debt. I have some understanding for these thoughts, but I consider that they disregard a number of important circumstances as well. I believe that above all, one underestimates the importance of maintaining confidence in the inflation target and the problems that can arise if this confidence is lost. We have lived with an inflation target of 2 per cent for more than twenty years and few would claim anything other than that it has been a good system with good results for the Swedish economy.
Nevertheless, this does look to be a case where rapid growth has gone hand-in-hand with loosening supply and rising risk. In the concluding section I’ll make some brief points about policy. The superior predictive power of debt growth What we saw in Charts 3 and 4 was that, at least in that 17-country sample, prior growth rates of debt were better predictors than levels of a country’s economic performance after the last financial crisis. Even if they went into the crisis with relatively high levels of gearing, countries with below average growth rates of debt had a less severe experience after the event. A much more complete study by economists at the Bank, based on the experience of 26 advanced economies over many economic cycles, dating back 50 years, found very similar results.3 Charts 7 and 8 are one way of expressing those. They show what you might expect of a country’s relative economic performance during a recession if, based on these results, you knew only that aggregate debt: income ratios beforehand were 10% points higher than the average and then if the growth in that ratio was 10% points higher. The second has proved much more informative than the first. 3  Bridges et al. (2017).

William C Dudley: Opening remarks at the Evolution of Work Conference Opening remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Evolution of Work Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 17 November 2016. * * * Nora Fitzpatrick, Laura Pilossoph, Anika Pratt and Aysegul Sahin assisted in preparing these remarks. Good morning. I would like to welcome you to this conference on the Evolution of Work. Today, we will explore how the nature of work is evolving, including the role of technology, shifts in employee work arrangements and employer-employee relationships, and the effects of these changes on workforce development strategies. We are pleased to host this conference with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Freelancers Union. We welcome all the leaders from across academia, government, industry, labor and the nonprofit sector assembled here to explore the transformation of the workforce, and the impact this has had on communities and the economy more broadly. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System. As you know, the Federal Reserve monitors the labor market closely, given that maximum sustainable employment is one goal of the Fed’s dual mandate. The evolving nature of the workplace—and the speed with which it is changing—are therefore important developments that we must continue to monitor.