samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This was remarkable in that according to the efficient-market hypothesis, it is only changes in fundamental factors, for instance profits or dividends, that ought to affect share prices. Further studies later in the 1980s indicated that future developments can be explained by historical price movements. A look at the share prices of two groups of firms – extreme losers and extreme winners – reveals that the group with the worst share performance in the first period gives a better return in the coming five years than the group that did best and vice versa. In the second period the undervalued shares recovered their fundamental value and the overvalued fell correspondingly. Studies with a shorter horizon confirm that shares which have begun to rise continue to do so and conversely, shares which have started to fall often continue to do so in the short run. The intuitive  1  Markowitz, H.M. (1952), Portfolio selection, J. of Finance, VII:1 (March), pp. 77–91. 2  Fama, E. (1970), Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work, J. of Finance 25, pp. 383–417. 3  This point has been made by, for instance, Milton Friedman and Eugene Fama; see Friedman, M. (1953), The case for flexible exchange rates, in Essays in Positive Economics, University of Chicago Press, and Fama, E. (1965), The behavior of stock market prices, J. of Business 38, pp. 34–106.

* * * These questions aside, one thing is clear in the case of France – and 2016’s too-feeble growth of 1.1%, as published yesterday, confirms it: estimates from national and international institutions all point to low levels of potential growth, at around 1.2%, and relatively high levels of structural unemployment (the equivalent of the NAIRU in English-speaking countries), at around 9%. Clearly, we cannot be content with these levels. All of which brings us back, overwhelmingly, to our four key focuses for reform: Enterprise, Education, Employment and Expenditure reduction (public sector). Our northern European neighbours have shown by example that these reforms 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  are not incompatible with our shared European social model. Studies by the Banque de France show in particular that reforms to the goods and services market could boost the productivity of the French economy by between 3% and 5% in the long-term. Without further ado then, let me pass the floor to Fabrice Lenglart, and I wish you all a fruitful and enjoyable conference. 1 www.banque-france.fr/en/secular-stagnation-and-growth-measurement-conference-organised-banque-de-  france-and-college-de  3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
As a result, the increase in the cash flow does not affect the domestic economy. Likewise, a fall in oil prices does not have an impact on the domestic economy, but results in a lower accumulation of foreign assets. The Fund thus acts as a buffer against disturbances. By building up the Fund, the aim of ensuring that several generations will enjoy the benefits of our petroleum wealth is also taken into account. In 2001, the Storting adopted new economic policy guidelines in Norway. At the same time as the inflation target was introduced in monetary policy, a strategy was drawn up for the use of petroleum revenues over the government budget, i.e. the fiscal rule. The fiscal rule is designed to prevent swings in the petroleum sector from spreading to the mainland economy. This ensures that petroleum revenues are phased in at a steady pace. The guideline specifying that only the real return on the Petroleum Fund is to be used, means that the capital in the Fund is not depleted over time. Norges Bank has no set target for the level of the exchange rate. Nevertheless, developments in the krone are of considerable importance to interest-rate setting because the exchange rate has an impact on inflation and output. An important channel for monetary policy is the foreign exchange market and the krone exchange rate. Although the krone fluctuates, the krone exchange rate is not particularly unstable compared with other countries’ currencies.

It is, therefore, important that in the examination that follows a country’s request for a convergence report due consideration be given to the policy consistency and credibility of the applicant country. A comprehensive economic analysis that is not only quantitative but also qualitative, and which recognizes the difficultly of simultaneously satisfying all the Maastricht criteria in the current world environment would encourage EMU candidate countries to persist in their efforts to achieve even closer nominal and real convergence. It would also provide further evidence that the euro project is credible, that it is both feasible and realizable in a near-term perspective. Let me conclude by thanking you again for being here to contribute to a deeper understanding of the challenges ahead. I also wish you a pleasant stay in our country. BIS Review 53/2006  5
Moreover, there is plenty of evidence, accumulated over recent years, which suggests that identity-diversity can yield significant social benefits, in part at least because it serves as a proxy for cognitive and experiential diversity. For example, research by McKinsey has looked at how gender and ethnic diversity affect firm performance. 45 Looking at a wide cross-section of international firms, it finds that companies with higher levels of ethnic and gender diversity have tended to out-perform less diverse companies, often by material amounts. These effects are stronger, the greater is the degree of diversity on these companies’ leadership teams. Diversity, in short, supports the bottom line of the annual report, not just the CSR paragraph. And what is true of companies appears also to be true of cities. Researchers have created “creativity indices” for cities measuring their degree of technological innovation and  41  Alesina et al (1999)  42  May and Anderson (1991), Watts (2002), Haldane (2009)  43  Alesina and La Ferrara (2000). 44  Page (2007). 45  McKinsey (2015). 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  dynamism. 46 There is a striking correlation between these indices and a city’s degree of sexual and ethnic diversity – cities such as San Francisco, Boston and Seattle in the US, and also London, Dublin, Vancouver and Sydney. It seems a vibrant city both helps create, and is created by, a diverse and cosmopolitan populace in a virtuous loop.

It takes quite a leap of faith to choose instead the candidate whose skills are misaligned with the hiring organisation. Back in 2006, the Bank of England did some personality-type evaluations of middle managers and graduate entrants, using the well-known Myers-Briggs psychometric test. This was a  71  14  Drawn from Page (2007) and Deloitte (2013). BIS central bankers’ speeches  population of 240 individuals, large enough to make reasonable statistical inferences, although it is worth bearing in mind that no psychometric test is without its drawbacks. The Myers-Briggs test groups individuals according to four classifiers, each with two possible outcomes. 72 So there are in total 16 possible personality types, typically summarised by a four-letter acronym. For example, I am an INTJ: Introvert, iNtuitive, Thinking, Judging. Although these 16 personality types are not uniformly distributed across the population, no one category typically comprises more than 12–14% and none less than 2–3%. Viewed from this vantage point, the Bank’s results were interesting. Around 60% fell into a single category: ISTJ. In 2006, ISTJ’s were the star-bellied Sneetches of the Bank of England. The chances of this occurring by chance in the population at large are far less than one in a million. The good news on this front is that, with the arrival of new staff with new and different skills at the Bank over the past few years, its personality has already become more diverse, perhaps significantly so.
Third, integration promotes greater interaction and knowledge sharing, and can help lift the standards of the Islamic finance industry. In short, the 3 facets – development, integration and stability of markets – are closely intertwined. Proper attention to all these 3 facets will enhance the soundness and vibrancy of Islamic financial services. We are in fact seeing greater integration already with more cross borders flows, both within the Middle East and Asia, and between the two regions. Banking and capital markets are opening up to foreign investors, more Shariah products are listed on stock exchanges and Islamic financial service providers are expanding their operations overseas. This is a promising trend. Three tasks We should build on this positive momentum. Allow me to share my views on three broad categories of essential tasks in promoting greater integration in the coming years. 1st task: promoting more economic integration First, financial integration and economic integration are deeply linked, and mutually reinforcing. Hence, to promote financial integration, we also need to focus on economic integration. An important tenet of Islamic Finance is that one must not focus on money per se, but on how money can facilitate trade in goods, and investment in productive capacities. By extension, regional integration of Islamic Finance can promote regional integration of our economies. Linking borrowers and lenders across the Middle East and Asia, will help to deepen trade and investment links between the two most dynamic regions, and provide for a more efficient intermediation of savings.

There is a saying which is common to the Chinese and Arabs which goes, “the journey of a thousand miles begins with one step”. I am glad to note that a lot of progress has already been made on all the three tasks. However, the journey ahead is long. Let us continue to work together towards integrating the Islamic financial markets. In this way, we can grow much faster and much more, bringing greater economic benefit to our regions. Finally, we are honored to be given the opportunity to host IFSB’s 6th annual Summit next year, which will be a landmark event for Singapore and our Islamic finance industry. May I  3  Islamic Research and Training Institute. 4  Bahrain Institute of Banking and Finance. 5  International Centre for Education in Islamic Finance. 4  BIS Review 63/2008  thank the IFSB Council, Professor Rifaat and the IFSB secretariat. I would like to extend a very warm welcome to you all to Singapore. BIS Review 63/2008  5
The growth of fixed asset investment, broad money and bank credit slowed down quickly in the second quarter of the year, although not without causing serious concern about the possibility of a hard landing. To be sure, the bluntness of administrative measures did lead to inconveniences and perhaps casualties among innocent parties, as cash flow, for a time, dried up for almost everybody rather than the targeted activities. But by and large the measures are working. And about two weeks ago these were interestingly buttressed by increasing interest rates and further liberalisation in the determination of deposits and lending rates. This is another encouraging development in market reform. Let me, lastly, say a few words about the RMB exchange rate. I do not have the privilege of inside knowledge on the subject. The fact of the matter is that there is only a small current account surplus. It is true that there has been large capital inflow lately, as manifested in the rapid build-up of foreign reserves. This was predominantly the result of international political pressures for a more flexible exchange rate. As such it would be a temporary phenomenon, although, with interest rates of the RMB higher than those of the US dollar, there is a significant cost incurred in sterilisation. In so far as the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate is concerned, this is currently not a problem, particularly with capital controls.

Indeed, from the business perspective and being the international financial centre of China, we must position ourselves for and try and make the best of the opportunities that come with the inevitable process of financial liberalisation of the Mainland. So we spend much of our time and attention on monetary and financial issues on the Mainland. But I must still confess an occasional inability to understand exactly what goes on there. With a high savings rate, rapid economic growth, and the attraction of an emerging market of mammoth dimensions and ample opportunities, the Mainland of China can afford to adopt a cautious approach to financial liberalisation. Even with continuing, tight capital controls, there is no lack of foreign direct investments. The size and strength of the economic magnet of Mainland China are such that it has become, for a number of economies in the region, one of the largest trading partner and destination for outward direct investment. Foreign portfolio investments into the Mainland of China, to the extent that these opportunities are available, for example, in the stock market of Hong Kong, are also in great demand. With an abundance of domestic savings (the savings rate is around 30% to 40%), the emphasis is on financial sector reform, to enhance the efficiency of domestic financial intermediation, in order to sustain growth and development, rather than to attract an inflow of foreign savings.
But financial markets may not have been truly tested for the ability to absorb price moves or flows that persist for a prolonged period, or for a wider spillover between markets. As such, the “So what?” is that market participants need to take note of the recent periods of volatility and illiquidity and remain aware of the possibility of these events occurring more frequently, and the potential for them to have more persistent effects. As the Bank’s December Financial Stability Report concluded, “Adjustments will be more disruptive if investors’ pricing of liquidity risk does not fully reflect structural changes in market liquidity.” In conclusion, financial market conditions have changed quite noticeably over the past year or so. In part this is conjunctural: the macroeconomic outlook has changed and perhaps become less certain. Central banks have reacted, and in some cases pushed the innovation envelope further. Unsurprisingly these developments have been associated with more volatile financial markets. Given that policy-makers have previously been concerned that persistently tranquil financial markets could encourage excessive risk-taking, this development is not necessarily an unwelcome development. But recent months have also seen a number of short episodes of sharply-higher volatility which coincided with periods of much impaired market liquidity. There are good reasons to believe that the severity of these events was accentuated by structural change in the FICC markets. There must be a risk that future shocks could have more persistent and more widespread impacts across financial markets than has been the case in the recent past.

In short, improving the overall environment for NPL resolution would afford an opportunity not only to repair bank balance sheets, but also those of their clients. Both of these are ultimately necessary to achieve a sustainable recovery in bank lending, and in doing so to restore the effectiveness monetary policy transmission. Finally, banks’ incentives are necessarily affected by regulation. This is indeed its purpose. Regulation aims to internalise negative externalities, but it is the nature of regulating that policymakers must always be watchful that, in the process, they do not inadvertently create new forms of negative externalities. Regulations passed so far have rightly aimed to make banks internalise systemic risks and markets to better price them. And there is in principle no long-run trade-off between higher  5  For a discussion of how NPLs can affect cost efficiency see Berger A.N., and R. DeYoung (1997), “Problems Loans and Cost Efficiency in Commercial Banks”, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 21. 6  World Bank (2013), Doing Business 2014: Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  capital and higher lending. 7 But at the same time, much depends on the calibration of specific requirements, and here very careful macroeconomic impact assessments are required – for instance, to ensure that the transitional costs of implementing regulations do not have unwanted effects on credit.
As a working assumption, the Board considers that the additional investment as a consequence of the catastrophe will be equivalent to nearly one percentage point of GDP in 2010. This effect will be concentrated in the second half of  4  BIS Review 61/2010  this year and will increase towards 2011. This considers both new investment and reallocated resources from other projects. The materialization of these investments will be favoured by their high marginal productivity and because part of the loss in net capital stock was insured. In the case of the public sector, according to announcements from the Executive, the baseline scenario considers that the structural deficit of 2009 was 1.2% of GDP and that structural fiscal balance will be attained towards the end of the current Administration’s term. Budgetary reallocations this year will amount to about $ million, while the rebuilding of destroyed public infrastructure will be spread out over four years. As a working assumption, the Board estimates that the burden of financing the public and private reconstruction efforts will be distributed equally among its various sources. Considering the economic situation leading up to the disaster together with its short and medium term effects, the Board estimates that during this year GDP will grow between 4.25% and 5.25%. This range is somewhat lower than was forecast in December. The downward revision for this year is based on the fact that the immediate economic effects of the earthquake and tsunami will exceed the increases generated by the reconstruction efforts (table 1).

From a regulatory perspective, it is important to note that responsibility for ensuring that payment and settlement systems work smoothly and meet the requirements of the financial industry lies with the system operators and market participants. The role of regulatory authorities is to establish certain guidelines, especially for infrastructures that are of critical importance for the stability of the financial system, and to intervene rapidly in cases where market forces do not provide an adequate infrastructure. BIS Review 103/2009  1
The northbound Stock Connect has presented a huge opportunity for Hong Kong to develop risk management capability for understanding of the risks and the pricing of such risks for offshore investors interested in the A share markets. Apart from helping to channel foreign investments into the Mainland market, the Stock Connect has also contributed to the inclusion of bigger weights of A shares in the global stock market indices such as the MSCI. Asian Equity Derivatives Hub 8. Another recent trend that is relevant is that several international financial firms have decided or are planning to relocate their Asian equities derivatives booking hubs from Europe to Asia. This is very logical as the underlying securities and clients are based in Asia. The HKMA welcomes these moves and stands ready to facilitate such moves, on the condition that the booking business must be accompanied by the necessary risk management functions. Again, this will enhance Hong Kong’s position as the risk management hub for Asian equities and derivatives, particularly Mainland related stocks. Bond Connect 9. By the same token, the launch of the northbound Bond Connect in 2017 has opened another window of opportunity for Hong Kong to enhance its risk management functions for offshore investors wishing to invest in the Mainland bond market. It is still early days yet, but I am confident that Bond Connect offers attraction to those investors who prefer using a nominee holding structure through the Central Moneymarkets Unit of the HKMA.

For the euro area, it now appears reasonable to expect growth of 2 per cent this year and a slightly higher figure in the next two years. For the Nordic region, the UK and the rest of Europe as well as for Latin America and Asia, many analysts have revised up their growth forecasts since the end of the spring. This is partly because of a number of new statistics releases from these areas which have been more robust than many had expected. Russia and some Latin American countries are also benefiting from the high prices of commodities. As regards Asia it is primarily the outlook for the Japanese economy that has become increasingly optimistic. At the end of last year economic growth there was at its highest in fifteen years. There are many indications that there has been a slowdown in the Japanese growth rate very recently but in relation to the developments of recent years it is still relatively strong. China has experienced a rapid industrial expansion with average annual growth of almost 10 per cent in the past ten years. This year, too, growth has been high. One contributory factor to the strong growth is that investment has increased sharply. Nevertheless, most analysts expect growth in China to be somewhat lower in the years ahead, owing to the measures now being taken to dampen demand.