samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In this view, it is worth mentioning the positive contribution of the new FDI inflows in tradable sector, which contributed to both higher and more diversified net export and higher employment. In addition, economic recovery was supported by the fiscal stimulus as well as the accommodative monetary policy stance. Since July last year, the main policy rate is at the historical lowest level of 3.25%. Moreover, during the crisis period, a combination of standard and non-standard measures have been undertaken by the central bank aimed to give additional support specifically to the credit growth and accordingly, to the economic growth, while still preserving the price and financial stability in the economy. The outlook for this year is also positive. We expect GDP growth of close to 4%, and therefore we see economy going up on the cycle. What one can learn from our experience is the fact that the implementation of sound structural reforms can definitely move the economy upward – even during the crisis – that is an important message for the macroeconomic policy afterwards. When discussing the recovery from the crisis, we need to point out some related issues that are dealing with the exit of non-standard policy measures and turning towards fiscal consolidation, currently being the topical issues between the policy makers worldwide. The tapering decision by the FED by the end of the last year somehow announced the need of this reversal that will eventually be recognized in other countries, too.

So the Oxera team sought to capture the benefits of reducing homelessness in getting young people into employment or training, preventing them from re-offending, treating their mental health issues and reducing their substance misuse. These are a subset, albeit an important subset, of the social costs of homelessness. The results of this study, which was published by PBE last year, are outlined in Figure 12. To cut a long story short, the study suggested that, for every £ spent by Centrepoint, there was a societal benefit of at least £ Or, put differently, Centrepoint delivered a social return on investment of 140% over a five year period. This was very much a lower bound estimate. Let me give you a second example of a PBE social impact study, this time on an even grittier issue – child sexual exploitation. In 2012, a PBE team from the Bank of England did a piece of work for Barnardo’s to judge the impact of their interventions to help exploited children. 26 They looked at the reduced incidence of missing person calls to the police, the reduced probability of becoming classified as Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET), reductions in substance misuse and the benefits from secure accommodation. These benefits are outlined in Figure 13. They suggest a higher social welfare multiplier, perhaps as large as six to twelve. This is not miles away from estimates from a recent City of London study.
To achieve this the Bank has set every UK bank (and building society) a requirement for the minimum amount of such loss absorbing resources – known as MREL – it needs to hold. This requirement will need to be met in full by 2022. MREL covers both the capital a bank holds in going concern and the capital and debt that can be bailed in if it fails and enters resolution. The biggest UK banks already have going and gone concern resources sufficient to absorb losses of almost a quarter of their risk-weighted assets, and are well on their way towards meeting their full MREL requirements. Current levels of loss absorbing resources mean that even if the major UK banks saw losses six times the losses they incurred over 2008 and 2009, there would be sufficient private sector resources that could be bailed in to recapitalise the bank and stabilise it without taxpayer support. And next week, alongside the Purple Book, we will publish for consultation the Bank of England’s proposals on how these loss absorbing resources should be distributed within banking groups. 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  In setting the timetable for meeting full MREL requirements, the Bank has considered the balance of costs and benefits. Issuing MREL imposes costs on banks. These costs will be minimized if banks are able to build up their MREL loss absorbing debt to replace their existing debt as it matures.

A Swedish company that raises wages sharply risks being driven out of business. As globalisation continues, new markets are being opened in which wage costs differ from the level in Sweden. Companies get increased opportunities to outsource their activities to countries with lower wage costs. The question is if wage growth in Sweden is competitive in relation to other countries? 4  BIS Review 84/2005  The large surplus on the current account, SEK 48.1 billion during the second quarter this year, equals around 7.7 per cent of GDP and can be seen as an indication that Swedish wages and costs in general are competitive. Otherwise, Swedish goods and services would not be in such demand in other countries. At the same time, Swedish companies have outsourced a considerable proportion of their production from Sweden to reduce costs. The stiffer competition from low-wage countries is found mainly in the manufacturing industry. However, the pace of this production outsourcing has decreased rather than increased since the end of the 1990s. One possible explanation for that is the global economic slowdown at the start of the current decade. Swedish companies give outsourcing as the reason for a lower number of employees to a lesser extent now compared with a few years ago.2 That could also be interpreted to mean that the cost of Swedish labour has fared relatively well after all in the increasing international competition that has resulted from globalisation.
As a result, the level and sophistication of the defence against cyber attacks need not be the same for all the banks in Hong Kong. So what the Cyber Resilience Assessment Framework seeks to establish is a common risk-based framework for banks to assess their own risk profiles and then use these profiles to determine the level of defence and resilience that would be required to accord appropriate protection against cyber attacks, drawing references to the relevant international experiences and good practices. 6. Once the risk profile of a bank and the level of resilience needed are established, the HKMA will require the bank, under the guidance of the senior management and, where appropriate, the board of directors to put in place proper governance arrangements and processes to achieve the level of resilience in cybersecurity commensurate with the risk profile of the bank. Specifically, the HKMA will examine how effectively a bank can detect and protect itself from attacks and, when the bank gets hit, how it will respond and how quickly it can recover. Clearly if there is a shortfall between what is needed and the actual preparedness, the HKMA will follow up with the bank to bring up the level of resilience as soon as practicable. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Professional development programme 7.

One of the most infamous is the 1998 study based on just 12 children published in the Lancet claiming there was a link between the MMR vaccine and autism. Uptake of the MMR vaccine subsequently dropped to under 80% nationally, and mumps reached epidemic levels in Britain in 2005. It later transpired that the lead author of the article had failed to disclose his role as a paid adviser in a lawsuit claiming MMR had harmed children. He was struck off, later studies have failed to establish a credible link between vaccines and autism, and the Lancet has fully retracted the article. if policymakers had systematically overambitious goals for economic activity they would succeed only in generating extra inflation. A seminal paper by Rogoff (1985) first suggested that delegating monetary policy to an independent central bank can overcome the inflation bias problem, delivering lower inflation and output variability. 9 See Cukierman, Webb and Neyapti (See “Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes”, The World Bank Economic Review, 1992) and Crowe and Meade (See “The Evolution of Central Bank Governance around the World”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2007). I define central banks with an index score greater than 0.4 on the Cukierman, Webb and Neyapti (1992) index as having a ‘moderate’ degree of independence.
This initiative allows for the viability of new technologies to be tested in a controlled environment while simultaneously exploring potential risks and the mitigating measures. In addition, Bank Negara Malaysia will continue to foster cooperative platforms between the authorities and financial institutions to enable “rapid responses” to terrorism financing threats. Early this year, we facilitated an information sharing platform between law enforcement agencies and selected financial institutions to swiftly and effectively mitigate risks and respond to threats. Greater access of intelligence information for financial institutions and the increased threats from ISIL had resulted in the upward trend of reporting of Suspicious Transaction Reports (STRs). To 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  put it in perspective, in 2015, the financial intelligent unit (FIU) received 93 terrorism financing related STRs which led to 14 disclosures to law enforcement agencies. In comparison, between January and June 2017, we received 346 terrorism financing related STRs which have led to 34 disclosures to law enforcement agencies. Importantly, the quality of STRs submitted has also improved. Bank Negara Malaysia is also in the midst of finalising the details of a new requirement for the Banking and Money Services Business sector to report remittances in high risk areas. The high risk areas will be determined based on the law enforcement agency’s intelligence on areas that they view may pose higher risks for funding of terrorism activities.

(c)  A Distributed Architecture  Central banks historically have tended to be, well, centralised. But in a world where understanding of the economy is often localised and trust is built on a distributed basis, a centralised infrastructure may be far from ideal. What is needed instead is a distributed architecture for engagement. In response, central banks have over time changed their structures and further change seems likely. The Bank of England has had a network of Agents around the UK for around 90 years. Today, the Bank’s twelve regional agencies cover all corners of the UK, with an extensive network that generates around 9,000 meetings with company contacts each year. This is a valuable source of intelligence on the economy and financial system. Indeed, I would say it is increasingly valuable. It provides colour and context to accompany our data and models. It offers folk wisdom, the wisdom of the company crowd. But companies are only one crowd among many. Companies are an important lens on the economy, but far from being the only one. Reflecting that, the Bank has recently sought stronger connections with some other crowds, crowds with a different lens on the economy with which it has perhaps had less contact historically – trades unions, charities, community organisations and the like. For more than a year, I have augmented those Agents’ efforts with my own “Townhall” meetings across the UK.
However, there is a severe paucity of data on Asian risks. Singapore is addressing this gap by setting up several research institutions to gather and analyse data in specific areas of risks. •  For example, the Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management (ICRM) at the Nanyang Technological University is currently undertaking research projects for flood and earthquake risk assessment in selected Asian cities. •  In addition to collecting and analysing the data, ICRM conducts on-site studies and risk assessments of the cities in question, and develops hazard maps and risk models. •  To ensure that its research is relevant to the industry, ICRM actively reaches out to industry players through seminars and workshops. Third, increasing risk awareness. MAS supports efforts to raise risk management awareness in the region. •  I am pleased to note that Asia’s first association for risk managers, the Pan-Asian Risk and Insurance Management Association (PARIMA), was set up in Singapore in April, with strong support from the insurance industry. •  As a platform for dialogue between risk managers and the insurance industry, PARIMA will help to enhance risk culture and risk management capacity in Asia. Develop the marketplace I will now move on to our efforts to develop the insurance marketplace in Singapore. We have three key thrusts for marketplace development. First, expanding the broker network. Singapore already has a vibrant broking cluster, which has played a central role in facilitating business flows. We play host to over 70 insurance brokers.

Finally, I wish you a productive and fruitful time here at the HKMA Fintech Day, and trust that you will benefit from today’s rich plenary and parallel sessions. 21. Thank you very much. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
In particular, we will be able to look across groups to ensure that they have adequate resources, even if risks are being transferred to group companies located in countries with different regulatory regimes, such as offshore centres. And we will be alert to regulatory arbitrage, such as where risk transfer through reinsurance is negated through sliding scale commissions. The financial crisis, and the post-crisis regulatory reform agenda, have taught us many lessons. The business models of insurers and banks are different, but those lessons have informed and will continue to inform how we manage the implementation of Solvency II. Perhaps most salient for this conference, is the difficult lessons we have learned from experience with insurers and banks when it comes to the use of internal models. Many of you in this room will be acutely aware of the demands of the Solvency II model approval process. This rigour has a purpose. Use of internal models can be an effective means of harnessing the better knowledge a firm has of its own risk profile to set risk-sensitive capital requirements. But there are limits to our ability to model capital requirements.

To echo the Governor’s words from his speech to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in September “Insurance is at the core of the new Bank of England”…we have over 200 supervisors and 50 actuaries engaged in the implementation of Solvency II, not to mention the contribution from numerous dedicated policy experts. In addition, with insurance supervision now embedded in the Bank, supervisors benefit from the support of monetary policy experts, credit risk analysts and macro-financial analysts. The insurance sector plays a key role in the financial system and the economy. It protects companies and individuals from perils they could not otherwise shoulder, managing and spreading risk globally. Insurers are vital to efficient allocation and overall provision of capital, they provide alternative sources of funding, increasing the diversity in the system. The PRA has two primary statutory objectives: to promote the safety and soundness of all banks, insurers and major investment firms and, a specific objective for insurers, of contributing to the securing of an appropriate degree of protection for policyholders. These objectives are the guiding principles that ultimately underpin our implementation of Solvency II. The core objective of the new regime is greater policyholder protection. Solvency II is a welcome modernisation of European regulatory standards. You will be familiar with the UK’s ICAS regime. Solvency II recognises many of the principles that form the basis of that regime, and therefore introduces a level playing field with the rest of the EU. Risk-based capital standards and robust valuation practices ensure resilience against unexpected losses.
Furthermore, a specialised newspaper boasting the strength and the prestige of Ziarul Financiar has the obligation to judiciously calibrate any piece of information with an analysis of its significance. For instance, the media have adopted a bleak, sometimes apocalyptic, tone these past few days amid an abundance of news alerts on the likely number of unemployed over the upcoming months, i.e. around 30,000 individuals. Of course, taken individually, anyone being made redundant is faced with a tough issue. However, from an economy-wide perspective, the rise in unemployment by 30,000 people only accounts for about 0.5 percent of the workforce. Coupled with the very low level of unemployment (3-4 percent) prior to the outbreak of the ongoing global recession, the economic analyst will conclude that unemployment is hardly a pressing issue in Romania for the time being. On the other hand, it is equally true that the short-term outlook for the domestic economy is not and cannot be too favourable. To the bleak international environment added what we may also call the irrational exuberance of both markets and, on many occasions, state authorities. In my opinion, the mixture between a hostile external environment and what seems to be an inadequate domestic response to this environment stands out as the underlying reason for which rating agencies have downgraded, sometimes rather severely, our sovereign rating. Of course, we may voice our discontent with the rating agencies’ evaluation. At times, rating agencies themselves have facilitated our criticism.

And, if it is true that the central bank should not be confined to an ivory tower, it holds equally true that economic media should avoid slipping into cheap sensationalism, which only yields short-term gains. Eventually, the media should help its public take informed decisions, to the benefit of overall economic developments. I am well aware that shaping the public opinion is neither simple, nor linear. It is hard for a generation that has learnt that prices are formed by adding the planned benefit to the planned cost to grow accustomed to today’s reality, when price formation depends on demand and supply. Hence the greater difficulties faced by economic policymakers, analysts and the media alike. Disseminating – sometimes in good faith – the statements of certain market participants may equally generate confusion. For instance, let us recall that representatives of some edible oil producers claimed a few months ago that the price of their products would be on the rise, although this year’s market supply is several times higher than a year earlier. As it was normal, edible oil prices entered a downtrend which is likely to persist given the change in the supply-demand ratio. Another example is that of a businessman who said that weaker demand in a particular industry would entail higher prices in the producers’ attempt to safeguard their profits. This was another statement that did not receive an adequate response, so that the message conveyed to the market is that prices will rise no matter what.
Making such a change now might be viewed as “moving the goal posts,” given the persistent shortfall of inflation in recent years relative to the objective. And, doing so now might imply a greater tolerance for missing inflation to the low side in an asymmetric way. That would not be desirable at a time when inflation expectations are, if anything, too low, rather than too high relative to the FOMC’s objective. To sum up, the economy is broadly in a good place and the short-term economic outlook remains favorable. On a personal level, I am pleased that I will be leaving my current position at a time when the FOMC is likely to be very close to its employment and inflation objectives— recognizing, of course, the terrible damage of the financial crisis and the long time it has taken to get here. Uncertainty about trade policy and the fact that we are now on an unsustainable fiscal path, however, have raised the longer-term risks. With respect to monetary policy, there are a number of important choices the FOMC will need to make in the years ahead. I have outlined some of my preferences today: continuing with the current floor system for the implementation of monetary policy, and some of the steps that we could take to reduce the risk should interest rates return to the effective lower bound in the future. Thank you for your kind attention. I would be happy to take a few questions.

Debt service costs will move sharply upward in coming years as federal debt continues to grow and interest rates likely increase further. Additionally, entitlement spending is likely to increase sharply as members of the baby boom generation continue to retire —myself included.7 The shift toward a more aggressive U.S. posture on trade also likely increases uncertainty. On the one hand, such a posture could lead to revised trade agreements that provide the United States with greater access to foreign markets and better protection of intellectual property. This would tend to raise U.S. productivity and real GDP growth. On the other hand, tougher bargaining could lead to retaliation and higher trade barriers, here and abroad. In contrast to the first scenario, this outcome would be quite negative—leading to higher inflation, lower productivity, and slower potential GDP growth. 8 Over time, how U.S. trade policy evolves will have important implications for the performance of the U.S. economy—and, by extension, for U.S. monetary policy. By increasing uncertainty around the economic outlook, these shifts in fiscal and trade policy could make it more difficult for the FOMC to achieve its dual mandate objectives in the years ahead. Longer-term monetary policy issues Over the longer term, the FOMC will also need to address a number of other important issues.