samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Firstly, we need to consider the sovereign level. Both in the developed and emerging worlds, government debt levels have risen to unusual heights. Second at the corporate level, where current levels of borrowing both to banks and through securities are high. And thirdly we need to consider household debt. You have only got to read the newspapers to know that in the UK the level of debt to income has risen significantly. In the USA it is even higher and other countries such as Australia and Holland, which are subject to a similar low interest rate environment, are seeing similar trends. The question is just what are the vulnerabilities? We are now at historically low rates of interest. Servicing high levels of debt seems quite realistic. But a variety of things could get people to behave differently. To save more, or to repay debt. This could come if they felt that interest rates might rise and we did raise them modestly earlier this month. But it could also come for other reasons: a wish to save more for retirement for example. If a substantial change occurred it would, in the first instance, impact on monetary policy and our ability to meet our inflation targets. From a financial stability perspective too however we would clearly need to follow the evolution of any reactions and their  BIS Review 49/2003  3  consequences very closely.

In  3/7  addition, the number of bank branches has declined by 43%, while the number of Spanish banks1 has fallen from 122 at the start of the crisis to 61 in 2018. Also, all the former savings banks, apart from two, have been transformed into commercial banks, and most of the mergers and takeovers that have taken place have given rise to healthier institutions and have resulted in significant cost savings. The FROB, for its part, has played a prominent role in promoting some of these consolidation processes. These efforts to correct the excessive size of the sector were also accompanied by a significant balance sheet clean-up. As we all know, the financial crisis caused the quality of Spanish bank assets to deteriorate significantly. Indeed, in just five years the nonperforming loan ratio reached unprecedented levels (of around 14% at the end of 2013) and foreclosures rose to over € billion in 2014. The decline in the return on assets and the increase in net provisions for bad debts caused the banking industry as a whole to post a loss in 2012. This weakened bank solvency and, moreover, led to significant capital requirements for some banks, to the extent that public support was necessary to cover the capital shortfalls identified and to guarantee financial stability and, ultimately, the deposits of the general public. The FROB was once again fundamental in this area since, along with the deposit guarantee scheme, it injected around € billion of capital into the system.
Cards have increased their share of non-cash payments from less than ten per cent in 1990 to nearly 30 per cent today. The increase is partly reflected in a corresponding decrease in the share of check payments. In fact, checks have virtually disappeared from the Swedish payment market. However, the rapid decrease in the use of checks can not explain the growth of the card payment market. The share of checks has never been large in Sweden, since giro payments have always comprised a large share of non-cash payments. 4. Cash is still the king (fig. 4). Given the rapid increase in the use of cards in Sweden, particularly in the late 1990's, cash should have been expected to fall in importance. This, however, does not seem to have happened. The use of cash, measured as the ratio of the value of currency in circulation (M0) and GDP, fell during the first half of the decade, but have been fairly constant since then, lately even increasing somewhat. In the other Nordic countries the ratio of currency to GDP has been fairly stable, with the exception of Norway, where it has been falling. Furthermore, the level of cash to GDP is considerably lower in the other Nordic countries, perhaps reflecting their more widespread use of cards. In a longer perspective, starting 1950, the use of cash in relation to GDP has been falling considerably also in Sweden, from 10 down to four percentage points (fig.5). BIS Review 4/2003  1  5.

And the value of stress testing and scenario analysis is even more important in those situations where risk measurement is based on scarce or incomplete data or unproven quantitative tools. The above mentioned examples demonstrate the clear view we have taken in the Committee that the sound and stable functioning of credit institutions requires consideration not only of micro conditions, but also, and very importantly, incorporating a macro, long-term and forward-looking perspective. I think these principles also make good business sense. I believe that risk managers, should incorporate macro perspectives into their risk management models and into the design of the bank’s capital strategy. That is, to analyse how risks may change through the cycle and in stressed economic conditions, and incorporate these elements into the decision-making process. It is often thought that risks increase during times of economic downturn. But this is only partly true. Banks’ risks increase as they take on more business and extend more credit during times of economic expansion. The risks may not crystallise until times of difficulty, but the seeds are sown during the  BIS Review 46/2006  5  good times. It seems to me to be both prudent policy and consistent with risk management objectives to take a long term perspective, using the results to make decisions that gain room for manoeuvre in the good times in order to face up to difficulties that arise in the bad times..
The banking union should contribute to breaking the still-prevalent link between banking and sovereign risks, a link that largely explains the persistence of an appreciable degree of European money and financial market fragmentation. This is incompatible with the normal functioning of the monetary union and prevents the loose single monetary policy stance from being transmitted uniformly to households and firms throughout the area. I shall now move on to the Spanish economy. In Spain, our experience since the outbreak of the crisis has been extremely difficult. We have witnessed a double-dip recession, something unprecedented in our economic history over the last half-century. Adjustments were needed to overcome the serious real and financial imbalances – namely the budget deficit, private and public debt, the external imbalance and unsustainable activity in the construction sector – which began to build up in 2002-2003, during the period of real negative interest rates in the United States and in the EU. And matters worsened with the international financial crisis and the confidence crisis in the euro area, the latter driven by the public finances crisis in several countries, Spain among them. Three figures suffice to illustrate the severity of the crisis in Spain: in 2013 our GDP will be 7–8% below the cyclical peak (marked by the second quarter of 2008); national demand will be 16% lower; and employment 20% down. But we are correcting these imbalances.

Conclusion To conclude, the latest data on the euro area and on the Spanish economy give us a glimpse of a horizon in which the serious difficulties besetting us have been overcome. But the firming of the recovery and the absorption of the burdensome legacy of the crisis will require perseverance in the strategy adopted to complete and strengthen the design of Economic and Monetary Union and to lay sound foundations for sustained growth in all member countries. In the arena of national policies, there is a risk that a degree of reform fatigue may emerge as the situation improves. On the contrary, the favourable effects now becoming apparent from the fiscal consolidation and structural reform measures should encourage us to maintain these policies. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Banking on Islamic finance – from legality to economic value Keynote address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the 8th World Islamic Economic Forum (WIEF) “Banking on Islamic finance – from legality to economic value”, Johor Bahru, 6 December 2012. *  *  *  Powerful forces of change are transforming the functioning of the international financial system and the global economy. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the quest has been to build financial systems that will best serve the real economy, that provides financial intermediation that promotes sustainable growth through productive and responsible innovation, and that will be resilient to shocks and less prone to crisis. There is tremendous potential to draw on the economic value that Islamic finance has to offer. In realising this potential, in a now more challenging environment, will depend on our capacity to build new capabilities that will unleash the inherent intrinsic value propositions of Islamic finance that supports and energises the real economy. It is my honour to participate in this 8th World Islamic Economic Forum in my hometown, Johor Bahru to speak on the topic “Banking on Islamic Finance: From Legality to Economic Value”.

The second imperative relates to the continuous effort to develop the key resources of the industry, by expanding and building new capabilities needed to support its growth and development. There is a critical need to upskill the leadership and technical competency of talents given the increasing complexity of the industry. With broader scope, scale and internationalization, the demands on the capability of talents in Islamic finance industry can only increase. It will require more internationally oriented management teams that have the necessary international exposure and orientation. In addition to education and research to build the expertise in Islamic finance, a more structured framework for capacity-building that includes other key resources including the investment in technology for industry development is also needed. Such a coordinated effort in capacity-building has been initiated by the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) in support of its member countries in the development of Islamic finance. This is being undertaken through the IDB’s Member Country Partnership Strategy (MCPS) programme. Indeed, in a world of increasing interconnectedness, there is a need for such a strategic approach to capacity-building through cross-border cooperation for the mutual benefit of the members so that growth and development of the industry can be collectively strengthened. Finally, the third imperative is to accord importance to mutual recognition of Shariah interpretations across jurisdictions and thus contribute towards greater international financial integration. A critical factor that will support this process pertains to the need to enhance awareness in respect of the justifications underlying the Shariah resolutions in the industry.
10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  10  Chart 6: Cartogram of UK pay  Sources: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). Notes: UK NUTS 1 regions re-sized and coloured by median gross weekly earnings £ in 2018. 11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  11  Chart 7: Cartogram of UK life expectancy  Sources: ONS and Bank calculations. Notes: Life expectancy at birth by local area in the UK (years) for UK NUTS 1 regions, re-sized and coloured by mean life expectancy in 2010-12. If we turn to an alternative measure of health – psychological health – the picture changes dramatically. Chart 8 plots a subjective measure of well-being on a regional basis. 15 This is the mirror image of the income and wealth maps. Well-being is lowest in the richest region (London) and highest in a region where incomes are low (Northern Ireland). Income may buy you many things, but happiness is not one of them.16  This is based on answers to the question: “Overall, how satisfied are you with your life nowadays?” Other questions regarding wellbeing yield very similar conclusions. 16 Easterlin (1974) and Easterlin (2013), for example, point out that while wealthier people tend on average to be happier, happiness does not increase in line with GDP per head. Unemployment and debt arrears also have a large adverse psychological impact on individuals, above-and-beyond their direct impact on income and wealth (Wildman (2003) and Taylor et al (2007)).

Mr. Ingves discusses retail trade, EMU and the Euro with respect to Sweden Text of a speech by Mr. Stefan Ingves, a Deputy Governor of the Bank of Sweden, held on 14/4/97. First a word of thanks for the invitation to speak about EMU. Less than twelve months have passed since the Riksbank last attended a meeting of the Swedish Retail Federation with information about EMU. Perhaps some of you were present on that occasion. Whereas the issue of EMU was still fairly new a year ago and not much discussed by most people, the situation today is different. In the interval we have experienced a marked increase both in what people know about EMU and in their interest in the matter. This naturally has to do with the rapid approach of the starting date. Today the move to Stage Three lies fewer than 500 working days ahead. Moreover, there is no mistaking the strength of the political determination in Europe to start on time. This was evident not least at the recent Ecofin meeting in the Netherlands when the EU finance ministers agreed on several important matters such as the stability and growth pact and ERM2. Today I shall be outlining the process leading up to Stage Three of EMU and the changes that we already know will occur. I will also say something about EMU's consequences for retail trade. Before considering practical aspects of EMU, permit me to begin with a look at some general economic features.
The gross foreign reserve level, at the end of this period, was estimated at USD 1 billion and 244 million, adequate to cover 5.1 months of imports of goods and services. Based on the aforementioned developments, we may conclude that year 2004 contributed generally in further consolidating the country's macroeconomic equilibrium. Although full data for the yearend of 2004 are not yet available, there is a crystallization of the idea that the primary targets projected in the medium-term plan on the country's development have been met satisfactorily. According to the latest estimations, the Albanian economy grew by 6 percent under the conditions of a low inflation rate, far closer to the bottom level of the targeted band. The structural reforms, through their problematic concerns, have progressed during 2004. All this consolidating process has created the premises for a better stability in the future. The development program of the country for year 2005 already exists, part of which are the primary targets of monetary policy. The primary target of monetary policy for 2005, projected in the monetary program, remains the maintenance of the annual inflation rate within the two-to-four percent targeted range. This target is supposed to be met through the control of the monetary supply growth at an approximate level with the nominal growth of GDP, presuming that the velocity of currency circulation in the economy is stable. In this light, the annual growth rate of money supply for year 2005, projected in the monetary program, is 9.4 percent.

This rate is in compliance with the provided demand of the economy for money, coming from its real growth by 6 percent. The Bank of Albania monetary program is designed in line with other policies of the economy, where its harmonisation with the government fiscal policy is highlighted. The Bank of Albania estimates that like in the past years, even in 2005, the country's economic development will be in conformity with the overall development program objectives. The last developments of the banking system consolidate the optimism that it will fulfil to the best of its knowledge the role of financial intermediation in the economy. We deem that its consolidation will continue with accelerated rhythms throughout this year, providing to the large public more credits, more services and more security in the savings conduct. 2/2
In all likelihood, the fast upswing in prices has contributed to the fact that housing construction now appears to have picked up in earnest, although the low level of interest rates that has kept down financing costs has probably also played an important role. Changes in house prices also affect household consumption by altering the size of households’ wealth. Since household consumption comprises about half of total economic demand the potential effects on inflation can be considerable. The impact on consumption of an increase in wealth can come about in different ways. One is that households feel richer and therefore become more inclined to consume. In addition, the size of their wealth can affect their ability to obtain loans. The larger the collateral a household can put up for its loans, the greater its chances to borrow and thus to consume. When the value of the home owned by a household rises, it also creates the possibility to mortgage the home further, e.g. to build an extension or renovate and further raise the value of the home or to consume other goods. Another effect is that a higher valuation enables a household to refinance its second mortgage as part of its first mortgage and thereby reduce the interest costs of the debt. Historically, there has been an almost surprisingly strong relationship between changes in the value of households’ real wealth – houses and tenant-owned apartments – and how large a proportion of their incomes that households choose to consume, the so-called consumption ratio.

However, to meet the requirements applicable from the beginning of 2020 – i.e. after the phase-in period – action will need to be taken. This is particularly the case as regards meeting the leverage ratio requirements, but also as regards gone-concern instruments. The latter are used to recapitalise a bank in the event of imminent insolvency without recourse to government support. This is achieved by writing off designated debt instruments or converting them into equity. In addition to the reforms at national level, reforms are also underway on the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s international capital framework. It is likely that riskweighted assets will increase as a result of these international reforms. This expected increase has, as far as possible, been factored into the calibration of the revised Swiss ‘too big to fail’ regulations. All of these reforms – especially the higher leverage ratio requirements – will result in a further strengthening of the Swiss big banks’ resilience. In light of the fact that, in an international comparison, these two institutions are particularly large relative to the economy, this strengthening is necessary for two reasons. First, the big banks’ loss potential relative to their capitalisation is substantial. Given their significance to the Swiss economy, it is important that the big banks remain adequately capitalised, even in the event of such losses occurring. Second, while leverage ratios at both Swiss big banks have improved by international standards, they are still below the average for large globally active banks. The SNB welcomes and supports these reforms.
Thus, the human and societal cost is very real. It is pervasive and destructive, rippling across society, and if left unattended, will accumulate over time. Imagine the thousands of schools that could have been built, numerous hospitals with the best care and the strongest social safety nets that can help those most in need. The persistence of financial crimes will disproportionately impact the most vulnerable section of society. It erodes trust and leads to a breakdown in society. We in the financial sector have an instrumental role to play in this area. Our job involves the intermediation of money flows. We have the ability to prevent and facilitate investigations and prosecution of these crimes. In light of this, allow me to make three points on how we can achieve greater governance and transparency in the financial sector, which will reshape Malaysia’s future for the better. Shared responsibility to enhance compliance and prevention The first point that I would like to make is that combating financial crime is a shared responsibility. It is not the sole responsibility of central bank supervisors, financial intelligent units, banks or even the compliance function within financial institutions. Just as individuals, all of us have a collective responsibility to contribute to nation building, it is the responsibility of each player in the financial system, law enforcement agencies, prosecution agencies and the judiciary to look out for potential abuses, stamp out financial crimes and not let the perpetrators get away. For financial crimes do not occur in isolation.

This will also act as a deterrent as it signals the commitment and extent to which the relevant authorities and the industry will go to stamp out crime. Hence, we are looking forward to expand this partnership for different types of crimes. Organisations such as the Compliance Officers Networking Group of Malaysia (CONG) and the industry associations can also play a role in enhancing the professionalism and capacity building of compliance officers in Malaysia. The development of human capital is essential in our efforts to combat financial crime. It is our biggest asset, more than any technology. For Bank Negara Malaysia, we will also play our role by ensuring that the regulatory and supervisory framework will provide the necessary environment to prevent, detect and prosecute financial crimes. For us, fighting financial crime is not just about increasing the compliance cost of banks through greater reporting requirements. Instead, we are committed to ensure that the financial sector is well-equipped to support our law enforcement agencies in order to avert these threats. Since the beginning of this year, we have published Red Flag and Typologies reports on several type of crimes including terrorism and proliferation financing, corruption and fraud. These reports aims to provide insights and create awareness, amongst the reporting institutions, of the trends, methods, and techniques used in these crimes. Enhanced understanding of such risks would assist reporting institutions in identification and early detection in order to assist law enforcement agencies to combat such crimes.