samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
According to the Bank’s forecast, the near-term outlook is positive. GDP growth is projected to measure just under 3% this year and then rise to about 3½% in 2015 before tapering off again to 3% in 2016. This level of growth is expected to exceed that of potential output with the effect that a positive output gap might emerge, particularly in 2015. Other things being equal, this will contribute to higher inflation. GDP growth in 2014–2016 will be driven by domestic demand, both private consumption and investment, and the contribution from net trade will be negative for the entire period. As a consequence, the sizeable current account surplus we have seen in the recent term will shrink rapidly next year and give way to a small deficit in 2016. This is cause for concern in and of itself, and we hope that the forecast will not materialise, as Iceland needs to maintain a current account surplus in the next several years as it focuses on putting its external debt onto a stronger footing and building up domestically financed foreign reserves. Economic policy and economic incentives would then have to take into account the task of of improving the outlook for the current account balance. Inflation has been below the inflation target for nine consecutive months. This is the secondlongest such period since the inflation target was adopted in March 2001, the longest being a twelve-month period from November 2002 through October 2003.

One might notice the remarkable difference in the income concentration at the top-level earners in Western Europe and US, meaning the inequality diverged substantially in these two groups in the last almost four decades. This so-called “modern” surge and divergence in inequality leads economists wondering, which forces may be preventing benefits of capitalism being widely distributed. Observing the US – Europe nexus, apparently the level of development does not always matter for how the income distribution could look like. There are policy tools and fundamental values in the society that can affect the distribution curve markedly. For instance, many authors associate the divergence in Western Europe and US with the educational inequalities and less progressive tax system in US. On the other hand, in Western Europe tax progressivity declined moderately, but even more importantly the educational system and wage setting policies are thought to be relatively more 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  favorable to low and middle income groups. Hence, equal opportunities to higher quality education, in particular nowadays when technology is rapidly advancing could be one of the remedies for the “illness” of inequality. It could enable young people at the bottom of the income distribution to get access to better-paid jobs, and hence flatten the income distribution curve. In the region-specific context despite the transition, process that in principle leads to increase in inequality, the top 10% of the income distribution has a share of close to 29% of the total income, lower compared to Western Europe.
The complex nature of claims requires multiple parties with different skill sets and expertise as well as efficiency in service delivery in order for the claimant to receive fair compensation expediently. Misconceptions, suspicions and unnecessary disputes must be minimized for the benefit of all parties. This can be achieved by greater collaboration between parties in the claims management chain, beginning with the loss adjuster in the field to the insurer processing the claims. An online electronic platform that supports the integration and alignment of all the different claim processes should include mobile work units that allow loss adjusters to capture and transmit information directly in the field. This platform can be an avenue for the free exchange of information in a timely manner, thereby increasing transparency to an otherwise convoluted process. Such sharing of information is to the mutual benefit of all who are involved in ensuring a high level of integrity throughout the insurance industry. In addition, insurers and loss adjusters should also focus on attracting and retaining experienced talent that can be the first line of protection against fraudulent behavior. Loss adjusters play a significant role as independent intermediaries in facilitating a fair and reasonable compensation for the insured. Due to their investigative capacity, loss adjusters are also in the best position to assist insurers in detecting and preventing fraud, thus contributing significantly to the efficacy of the claims process as a whole.

When one thinks about the distant future – that is, the period beyond the influence of the current set of cyclical factors – one tends to think that interest rates will tend toward a level that reflects the rate of return on investment, and hence the potential output growth of the economy. Potential output growth matters a great deal for monetary and macroprudential policy. In the long run it determines the rate at which the economy can grow without generating abovetarget inflation, and it determines the rate of income growth in the medium term, and hence the sustainable level of debt today. During the financial crisis, we rediscovered the fact that recessions accompanied by financial crises tend to be followed by a sustained fall in the level of potential output. 13 The only silver lining was that although the level of potential output tended to be permanently lower, the growth rate could be expected to recover. However, if the current yield curve can be interpreted as an indicator of financial market participants’ expectations of the return on investment in the long term, it suggests they are  11  Barro (2006) shows that the potential for rare economic disasters can explain low risk-free rates  12  This can be broadly defined to include the higher cost of financial intermediation  13  IMF (2009)  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  sceptical that potential output growth can even return to pre-crisis norms.
Norges Bank has developed the Norwegian Economy Model (NEMO), which we use as an aid when drawing up one-yearahead to four-year-ahead forecasts. NEMO is a model for analysing cyclical fluctuations around a long-term trend. In the medium term, the economy may in periods deviate substantially from trend, but when the fluctuations subside, we must assume that the economy is moving towards equilibrium. The model does not explain the long-term trend so we have to look to other economic theory. For example, economic growth over time will be determined by technological developments and the supply of labour and capital, and there will likely be a relationship between the real interest rate and potential growth. When we set the interest rate, we give weight to the current situation and the outlook two to three years ahead. The statistical models help us understand the current situation, while the equilibrium properties frame the analysis. NEMO describes how the interest rate can be set to bring the economy from its current starting point back to the long-term equilibrium path. As a support tool in making monetary policy decisions, such a model apparatus is thus particularly relevant. I will come back to the main features of NEMO later. Chart: Monetary policy model requirements Norges Bank operates under a formal monetary policy mandate. The Bank’s objective is to stabilise inflation and provide the economy with a nominal anchor.

Ladies and Gentlemen, this seminar comes at a time when the economic performance of our country has significantly strengthened as partly reflected in the developments in the gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, interest rate and exchange rate. At a preliminary estimate of 5.7% in 2007, growth in real GDP has been above 5% for the fifth consecutive year. During the month of January 2008, inflation remained in single digit at 9.3%, from 8.9% and 8.2%, in December 2007 and December 2006, respectively. Commercial banks lending rates have also exhibited an investment-supportive trend while the Kwacha has remained relatively stable. Further, we have observed an improvement in the fiscal operations of the Government, which is supportive of the country’s inflation and growth objectives. The financial sector has also been very stable and registering appreciable growth in the recent years. Nevertheless, Mr. Chairman, despite these achievements, our country like so many other developing countries, still faces some challenges. Notable among these, is the urgent need to consolidate and build the gains so far attained. In particular, the need to attain sustained price and financial systems stability can hardly be over-emphasised. This is even more pronounced given the recent electricity outages experienced across the country and floods that have ravaged some parts of Zambia. Chairperson, it is also pleasing to note that, in the recent past, there has been recognition of the need to adopt economic and structural reforms in most African countries and some benefits are already evident in this regard.
According to the Sveriges Riksbank Act, the Riksbank shall ”maintain price stability”, but the preliminary works to the Act state that the Riksbank should formulate a more precise inflation target, and also that ”price stability” should not be interpreted to mean that the target for the rate of inflation is zero (Government Bill 1997/98:40, pp. 52–53). Furthermore, the Riksdag has repeatedly endorsed the inflation target as it is currently formulated, and emphasised that it is important for the Riksbank to pursue a monetary policy which ensures that inflation rises towards the target (most recently in the Riksdag Committee on Finance's report 2014/15:FiU24). 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  the nature of this kind of price pressure, in the long term inflation is determined by monetary policy and its effects on inflation expectations. 5 It is worth noting that it is mainly in Sweden that we have seen this debate take place. In the US and UK for example, inflation has been considerably higher than in Sweden over the past few years. Inflation has seen a falling trend in those countries too, but it has only been recently that inflation has fallen more sharply, in connection with the major falls in energy prices and the appreciation of the countries’ exchange rates. In both countries the central banks as well as other analysts are also expecting inflation to rise soon to two per cent, despite the fact that digitisation and globalisation will likely affect them, too (see Figure 1).

Macroeconomic risk management The main risk stemming from the world economy is the deceleration of the US economy. We still do not know, and there are unusually big uncertainties, about the depth and duration of the US slowdown. However, this slowdown should not be a surprise, and is an expected consequence of a correction in US current account imbalances. The adjustment to those imbalances, sooner or later had to result in economic slowdown and a correction of exchange rates (see, e.g., De Gregorio, 2007, and Obstfeld and Rogoff, 2007). Indeed, as I argued some time ago, a current account reversal should occur sooner or later and a depreciation of the dollar should help. The Central Bank of Chile included among the risks described in the Inflation Report, the correction of global imbalances since January 2004. The adjustment was triggered and seriously aggravated by the subprime crisis. Usually central banks define a baseline scenario to orient monetary policy. We make public this scenario in three Monetary Policy Reports that are presented to the Senate. Deviations from the baseline scenario result in adjustments of the path of monetary policy. Risk management becomes central when deviations are not small, and the probability of occurrence of large and disruptive deviations becomes significant. In that case, strong actions may be needed, which may result in large deviations from the policies envisioned in the base projection. In this context, we can interpret current policy actions in the US as exactly doing risk management.
In the case of Latvia, this is taking place within the framework of a financial support programme led by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU. The previous imbalances have now declined in all of the three countries. The current account is, for example, now showing a surplus following years of deficits in all the three countries. This is mainly because there has been a very substantial fall in imports. Inflation has also declined, and in Estonia prices are now falling on an annual basis. However, these developments have also taken place at the expense of increased unemployment and impaired credit quality. This is reflected not least in the fact that late payments have increased dramatically. Although there are signs that the downturn is slowing down, the development of the Baltic states in the period ahead is still associated with several risks. The main challenge relates to government finances where the budget deficits have grown as economic activity has weakened. The possibility to issue government securities to cover these deficits is, however, limited and Latvia is almost entirely dependent on the international support programme. Here there is also a great need for reforms in the public sector, reforms that should have been carried out during the period of positive growth. Estonia is in a better initial position as during the good years of the decade the country took the chance to build up fiscal policy reserves that can now be used as an extra buffer to fund the budget deficit.

The Riksbank's assessment in the main scenario of the latest Financial Stability Report is that loan losses are expected to amount to just over 2 per cent of the banks' lending in 2009 and 2010. In a stress scenario that assumes a much worse situation in Sweden and in the Baltic states, the loan losses could amount to 4.3 per cent of lending during these two years. Almost 40 per cent of these losses in both the main scenario and the stress scenario can also be related to the banks' lending to the Baltic states and the rest of Eastern Europe. These are significant losses, even though they are not as large as those suffered during the Swedish bank crisis in the period 19911994 when losses amounted to 13 per cent of lending. The banks' losses will certainly be largely related, in this crisis as in all others, to the situation on the property market. This is because most of the banks' collateral volume consists of property. However, the problems usually relate primarily to commercial properties, not to housing. The households service their interest and amortisation payments in most cases, even though they may sometimes have to negotiate a respite with the bank. Neither in Sweden nor in the Baltic states can households, as they can in the USA, give up the property they have provided as collateral and thus get rid of their debts. Not even during the crisis of the 1990s did the households account for a significant part of the banks' losses.
As the change in indirect taxes and administered prices has a direct effect on domestic inflation, their catching-up adjustment should be effected before the years during which they will be used as basis for evaluation of compliance with the Maastricht criteria – i.e. before 2008. From this perspective, earlier timing of harmonization of some excise taxes is a step to facilitate significantly the performance on the inflation criterion, as it would eliminate the proinflationary impact of an increase in these taxes in the years in which such evaluation will be made. In conclusion, I would like to sum up that, in the light of the rapid change in the structure of our economy, the stable macroeconomic policy pursued by the Government and the BNB, and the prospects for EU membership, the concerns, expressed in the leaflet for this Conference, of possible overheating of the economy and the risks this entails for its stability, seem rather exaggerated. The country’s external imbalance financed by capital inflows is more of a signal of stability, credibility and potential for development of our economy. Of course, the economic policy makers are not and may not be complaisant. The challenges Bulgarian economy is facing are well recognized, and there is the will to take all the necessary measures to preserve the stability and growth in the economy. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention. BIS Review 22/2006  3

Inflation expectations are fundamental to the process of interest rate determination and low inflation expectations are entrenched not only by the implementation of appropriate monetary and fiscal policies at any given time, but also by past inflation developments. Low inflation expectations were becoming entrenched in 2008 following two consecutive years of single digit inflation in 2006 and 2007. However, towards the end of 2008, the increase in food prices and the impact of the global financial crisis caused inflation to increase to a double digit figure of 16.6%. In spite of this, the prospects for low inflation, now look positive, creating an appropriate environment for interest rate reduction. Mr President, as you may have noticed from the newspapers in the recent days, a number of banks have reduced their lending base rates though not as much as we would like to see. We hope that this is just a start, and that banks will continue adjusting their rates downwards consistent with developments in other macroeconomic indicators. Distinguished Members, allow me to comment on the statutory instrument regarding the $ over the counter limit on deposits. These regulations are meant to encourage the use of the banking system in order to assist in curbing money laundering. Doing away with this would deprive the Central Bank of a mechanism for detecting fraudulent activities and create a healthy environment for money to be laundered in our financial system. Ladies and Gentlemen, the Bank of Zambia recognises the importance of long term finance for growth.
This improvement is attributable to the zestful actions undertaken by most banks to address the nonperforming loans portfolio, by offering solutions both within the e.g. repayment, repossession, restructuring, debt forgiveness), and also outside it the e.g. sale of loan portfolios). The financial infrastructure of the banking sector was strengthened further in 2019. The Bank of Albania and the National Payment System Committee have implemented the national strategy for 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  enhancing the small value payment market and increasing the financial inclusion of the population. The first results are promising and further steps by the Bank of Albania and the banking sector will be taken aimed at achieving a quantitative objective, which is to see the number of bank account holders doubled by 2022. The financial inclusion of the population is one of the most important current priorities. In 2019, the Bank of Albania and the banking sector paid particular attention to financial inclusion and financial education. It is a proven fact now that the improvement in financial inclusion contributes to the improvement of the welfare of the population, in a harmonised way. In this regard, we have designed and implemented, among others, a series of educational projects tailored to various segments of the population. Financial education, targeted publications with information on bank products and services, as well as developments in the payment infrastructure and payment services are concrete steps for providing more opportunities for access to finance by all segments of the population.

Although it is certain that the, at that time actual, forecast did not match the data perfectly, with no doubt it identified the break point and by that served very well its purpose. Naturally, the forecast accuracy, i.e. the ability to identify breaking points reasonably well, has not come out of the blue sky. The actual way in which forecasts are produced and used in central banks has changed substantially over the past two decades. These changes have reflected developments both in the economic (and econometric) theory and in monetary policy regimes. Bearing in mind the failure of large-scale models in 1970s, the profession has started to prefer smaller-scale models with a sounder microeconomic background, built in recent decades usually along the lines of New Keynesian Economics. Well, maybe we are still not able to match all the statistical numbers perfectly, but I hope that we are more skilled in recognising important breaks in the development of our economies than we were 10 years ago. Indeed, the use of general equilibrium models forces us to think about the economy in a consistent way and the use of multivariate filters has improved our  BIS Review 17/2010  1  knowledge about the current position of the economy in the business cycle. You probably all remember that inflation targeting was in our case introduced in a challenging situation, after a period of currency turmoil in May 1997, which ended the fixed exchange rate period and resulted in higher inflation and rising inflation expectations.
However, as the acceptance of cash in commerce is not legally required, the Inquiry’s proposal will not ensure that cash will remain usable in society. Consequently, even if the measures proposed may help slow down this development, I do not think that it will come completely to a halt. Streamlining within the banking industry, for example via cashless bank branches, may certainly have re-  5 See Armelius, H., Boel, P, Claussen, C. A. and Nessén, M. (2018) “The e-krona and the macro economy” Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review no. 3, and Juks, R. (2018) “When a central bank digital currency meets private money: effects of an e-krona on banks”. Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review, No. 3. Sveriges Riksbank. 6 See “Secure access to cash”. Interim report from the Riksbank Committee. SOU 2018:42. 3 [8]  stricted the general public’s ability to use cash, but other factors such as technological progress, changed consumption patterns and the lack of legal requirements forcing traders to accept cash are probably more important. For example, in its report “Grundläggande betaltjänster i en digitaliserad framtid (Essential payment services in a digitalised future)” 7, the Swedish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS) writes that “even if the cash infrastructure is maintained and cash is available, cash will not necessarily be fully usable in the future”. The most recent results of the Riksbank’s survey of payment patterns in Sweden also show that the proportion paying in cash is continuing to decrease, while Swish payments are increasing.

Unlike Norway and Denmark, Sweden has no card network of its own. At the same time, new technology is leading to new, convenient ways of paying becoming available, such as the mobile application Swish, for example. In Sweden, 6.5 million of 10 million inhabitants are connected to Swish. As the rest of society becomes digitalised, demand is increasing for digital payments and, above all, for rapid payments that can be made in real time. For the Riksbank, this means adjusting or complementing the RIX system so that it is able to manage instant payments in a secure and efficient manner. It is important to ensure that all participants involved in payments act under equal and equitable rules. At the moment, we are busy analysing whether we can take advantage of our European cooperation by joining the European Central Bank’s system for instant payments. 4 We are aware, however, that this would mean that part of our infrastructure for payments would thereby end up outside Sweden’s borders and are thus mulling over whether some kind of domestic back-up would be needed and over how the ekrona could be paired with this as a complementary means of payment. This is particularly important as we expect instant payments to become increasingly important in the future. The trend towards a cashless society has also continued – a trend that risks leaving Sweden without functioning cash in the near future. My speech two years ago was part of a proactive strategy to create different alternative courses of action from this trend.