samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) remains the key monetary policy communication tool of the central bank to provide the rationale for monetary policy decisions. Given the pronounced changes in the economy and the significant changes taking place in the financial sector, the industry would essentially need to respond to the new challenges arising from: i. Greater linkages, integration and interdependence between nations. This trend is likely to intensify as more countries embark on initiatives to promote closer regional economic and financial integration, to enhance their level of economic performance. ii. The challenge of intensified competitive pressures, arising not only from changes in the financial environment, the technological advancements and financial reforms but also the entry of new players, including the non-traditional competitors such as non-financial services. iii. Consumers are increasingly confronted with a wide range of new and innovative products and services that are delivered via new and more efficient delivery channels. As consumers are becoming increasingly demanding and financially sophisticated, greater emphasis needs to be given to the provision of the variety and quality products and services at competitive prices through the most effective channels. Banking institutions need to anticipate and rapidly respond to these new demands and expectations. iv. Policymakers are also confronted by the challenge of maintaining overall financial stability whilst at the same time, promoting efficiency in the financial system. Balancing the trade-offs arising from meeting these objectives will be necessary to determine the best course of action.

Some of you have been through a few or even several departments in your career. I want to thank all of you for making MAS what it is today. I hope this Gallery is a testament to your work in building up an MAS that has credibility, at home in Singapore and all over the world. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 6 Global imports of goods and services (% of GDP) Import share of GDP  Per cent  35 30 25 20 15 10 5  1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012  0  Note: Value of total imports of goods and services divided by world nominal GDP. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database and Bank calculations. Chart 7 Persistent divergence in the price of (core) goods and services  Note: Six-month average of the log-difference of core (excluding food and energy) goods and services price indices (2005=100). The US series uses PCE price indices and begins in 1999 due to data limitations. Sources: DataStream, national sources and Bank calculations. BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  Chart 8 Average world output gap and core inflation (weighted by UK-import shares) 4  Per cent of world GDP  Percentage change on a year earlier  2.5  3  2.3  2  2.1  1  1.9  0  1.7  -1  1.5  -2  1.3  -3  1.1  -4 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Global core CPI inflation (RHS) UK-wtd world output gap (LHS)  0.9  Notes: Average world output gap and core inflation (weighted by UK-import shares). Source: IMF, ONS, DataStream, and Bank calculations. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Mohamed S Fofana: Banking developments in Sierra Leone Statement by Mr Mohamed S Fofana, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Sierra Leone, at the launching ceremony of the new Guaranty Trust Bank logo, Freetown, 28 July 2006. *  *  *  Mr Chairman, Hon Vice President, Solomon E Berewa, Hon Ministers, Board of Directors, Management and Staff of the Guaranty Trust Bank (SL) Ltd, Distinguished Ladies & Gentlemen I am pleased to be here with you this morning at the launching ceremony of the new logo of Guaranty Trust Bank (SL) Limited. We are all aware that change is inevitable in a dynamic world. And that change itself is dynamic, which is why we are all gathered here today. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, a logo is a symbol or trademark designed for the clear and easy recognition of an institution by both its clients and its competitors. We in the Banking industry, as indeed the nation in general, have come to identify Guaranty Trust Bank with a particular logo in the recent past. The change from the old logo, which is two small squares flanking Guaranty Trust, to a new logo, which is a big orange square with a small white square at the top right side and GT Bank inscribed at the bottom of the orange square, is welcomed by the Bank of Sierra Leone.
Default on a mortgage carries much more risk for households – the potential loss of a home – than non-payment of unsecured debt. It’s just that this has become more the case in recent years. As outlined in the introduction, almost all the growth in unsecured household debt, relative to income, involves two relatively new developments that involve less pound-for-pound risk, at least for borrowers, than other forms of debt. Nor do they tell you anything about whether households are “living beyond their means”. One involves a change in the way people pay for cars. Conventional loans for car purchase have been around for a while. But over the last decade or so these have been overtaken by so-called “personal contract purchases” (PCPs) in which buyers make lower monthly payments but don’t own the car outright (there’s usually an option to buy at the end of the term, but the car is otherwise returned to the dealer). This is a highly contingent contract and, as far as households are concerned, it’s one that looks more like a rental arrangement than normal debt. The payments are mostly for depreciation, not pure interest. (They’re, in any case, set in advance and are therefore insensitive to subsequent changes in short-term interest rates.) The car owner can choose costlessly to walk away from the contract, at least once half the original price has been repaid.

Claes Norgren will be talking later on about the proposals for new rules. I should like to acknowledge that the task of achieving such a far-reaching reform of the international capital adequacy standards is by no means easy. Quite apart from the exceptional technical complexity of the substantive issues, it is not always evident how the political and cultural differences that nevertheless exist can be reconciled. BIS Review 9/2000  4  I know that Claes Norgren’s international efforts have been most valuable and appreciated around the world. Permit me to conclude by congratulating the Director General of Sweden’s supervisory body on his successful work. 5  BIS Review 9/2000
The respective shares of debt and equity on a firm’s balance sheet don’t matter for anything. What economists have done since is to understand how certain market imperfections – particular departures from MM (as it’s often called) – affect this choice. Some focus on the difficulty in monitoring managers who might have different incentives from the owners of a company. Managers might be tempted to do all sorts of things (spending more on nice offices, building empires) that aren’t in owners’ best interests. Higher debt levels can provide something of a discipline in this respect. They limit managers’ room for manoeuvre. Debt instruments often come with explicit restrictions – so-called “covenants” – on what can be done with the money. They can also deliver control rights to creditors – a say in the decisions of the firm – in the event that something goes wrong. On the other hand, too much debt might itself distort managers’ incentives. For example, excessive leverage can encourage managers to pursue high-risk projects that benefit everybody when they go well but whose costs are borne disproportionately by the debt holders if they go wrong. As I say, there is a huge area in economics and I’m not really going to go into it here. The one point I want to make is that, while these theories have been reasonably successful in explaining the cross-sectional variation in leverage – which types of firms issue debt and which use more equity – they have a harder time accounting for changes over time.

The issuance of loans has grown very rapidly, especially in the United States but also in the U.K. and other European countries (Chart 15), and now accounts for close to a tenth of aggregate corporate debt in the advanced economies. At the same time, the terms on which they’ve been issued have become looser: the share of “covenant-lite” loans, imposing fewer restrictions on borrowers, has risen significantly.11 And at least until recently, the spreads on these loans – the extra margin on the interest rate, relative to safer government debt, demanded by lenders – had been falling (Chart 16). Chart 16: Spreads tightened through much of that period  Chart 15: Large flows of leveraged loans over the past two years 12-month flow £ 110  12-month flow £  Basis points  500  2,500  US (RHS) UK (LHS) EU (LHS)  90  Leveraged loans  400  70  High-yield bonds  2,000  300  1,500  200  1,000  100  500  50 30 10 -10 2001  0 04  07  10  13  16  19  Sources: LCD, an offering of S&P Global Market Intelligence and Bank calculations. 2005  2008  2011  2014  2017  Sources: LCD, an offering of S&P Global Market Intelligence, ICE/BofAML, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) and Bank calculations.
But we will try wherever possible to be sympathetic to AIs’ concerns on compliance costs. Terrorist financing The most obvious thing we need to do is to incorporate into our guideline specific recommendations relating to terrorist financing. In particular, we need to make AIs aware of their responsibilities under the United Nations (Anti-Terrorism Measures) Ordinance that was enacted in July of this year and will begin to come into operation in the near future. The New Ordinance is intended to meet Hong Kong’s commitments under the FATF’s eight Special Recommendations on Terrorist Financing. To that end, it criminalises the financing of terrorism and associated money laundering and provides for the freezing of terrorist-related funds. It also imposes an obligation on AIs and other persons to report knowledge or suspicion that funds are linked to terrorism. We have already asked AIs to report to the JFIU suspicious transactions that may be related to terrorism. But the legal obligation to do so is now clear and unambiguous, as is the criminal offence of dealing in terrorist funds. AIs therefore need to ensure that they have the necessary measures in place to comply with the law. This is not an easy task. It is accepted that terrorist financing is difficult to detect even when AIs are provided with lists of terrorist suspects. The FATF published in April of this year a document called Guidance for Financial Institutions in Detecting Terrorist Financing that I would recommend you to look at.

Existing customers As I have already mentioned, it is likely that AIs will have to upgrade their due diligence procedures in some respects to comply with changing international standards. Obviously, these enhanced procedures would be applied to new banking relationships. But this begs the question about what should be done in relation to existing customers. To what extent should institutions go back and undertake renewed verification of the identity of existing customers? Our current view is that we should not impose an across the board requirement in this respect, but it would certainly be sensible to review those existing customers who fall into higher risk categories. The six major banks in the UK have just announced that they will undertake a risk-based initiative of this type. I would encourage those AIs with a large customer base to do the same. Other triggers for review of existing records may arise when a customer undertakes a significant transaction and where there is a material change in account operation or customer documentation standards. The way forward These are some, but by no means all, of the current issues we are considering in the context of our revised guideline. We hope to have something ready for consultation with the industry later in the year. While this may impose new obligations on AIs, we will try to ensure that these are of a nature that wellmanaged institutions would adopt of their own accord.
Experience has shown that phases of a weaker Swiss franc can be followed by periods in which the franc exhibits an upward trend. Financial market players and businesses should therefore be aware of the exchange rate risks they take. Monetary policy decision The inflation outlook forms the basis for the monetary policy decision. How does this look to us? As has already been pointed out in the considerations on the economic situation, there is likely to be an above-average utilisation of economic resources. The monetary analysis shows that lending is still growing vigorously and that the Swiss franc is trending relatively lower against the euro. Yet the inflation outlook remains favourable. The reasons are three-fold: First, falling oil prices will push inflation down considerably next year, at least during the first six months. Second, the opening of the labour market is making production more flexible, thereby exerting a favourable influence on inflation. Third, the National Bank lifted its interest rates at an early stage. The chief contribution of today's interest rate adjustment is to prevent resources from being over-utilised in 2007 and 2008. As a consequence, inflation is also likely to be muted in 2008 and 2009. 2  BIS Review 123/2006  Inflation forecast graph The new inflation forecast is shown in the graph as a red dashed line. It covers the time span from Q4 2006 to Q4 2009 and depicts the inflation forecast on the assumption that the interest rate remains at 2.00% during this period of time.

Almost all components of demand continue to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace. Private consumption will benefit from the healthy improvement in disposable income. Equipment investment is being stimulated by the high rate of utilisation of production capacity and the favourable business outlook in many industries. Residential construction is likely to see a measure of calm. Yet increased investment in commercial and industrial building may offset this development to some extent. The somewhat weaker global economic development – though still favourable overall - will probably continue to have a positive impact on exports. For 2007, we expect overall GDP growth of about 2%. Monetary developments Allow me to explain developments in the financial markets and the monetary aggregates. Two topics merit particular attention: the development of credit and money supply and the exchange rate. In addition to long-term interest rates and exchange rates, loans – among other things – play an important role when changes in key interest rates are transmitted to the economy. What information can we derive from the development of lending activity? Loans are registering constant growth. Mortgage loans, which account for the great majority of all bank loans, have grown at a rate of more than 5% since 2003. This is a reflection of the clearly expansionary monetary policy at that time. The growth rate of mortgage loans has gradually slowed, however, and is now slightly below 5%. This is nevertheless still a high growth rate. Other loans, however, are witnessing stronger growth and are currently expanding by 6%.
Makrofokus Sverige, Makroanalys 11 November 2013. Woodford, Michael (2012), Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability. Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2012:1. 10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 1. GDP per capita and employment rate compared with pre-crisis figures Change in per cent 2007–2012 and 2008Q1–2013Q2 (alt. most recent outcomes) respectively 6  6 GER  2 GBR  Employment rate  -2  FIN ITA  -6  -2  AUS  EU CAN NOR NED  -6  USA  DEN  -10  2  JPN AUT SUI FRA NZL SWE BEL  -10  POR IRL  -14  -14 ESP  -18  -18  GRE -22  -22 -22  -17  -12  -7  GDP per capita  -2  3  Note. GDP per capita, annual data, constant 2005 USD. Employment rate, ages 15–64, seasonally-adjusted data. Sources: The OECD and the World Bank WDI  Figure 2. Employment and labour force compared with pre-crisis figures Change in per cent 2008Q1–2013Q2 (alt. most recent outcomes) 9  9  AUS  7  7 NZL  Labour force  5  5  CAN SWE NOR BEL AUT ITA FRAGBR GER EU NED  3 GRE 1  SUI  ESP  3 1  USA FIN  -1 DEN  POR  -3  -1 -3  JPN IRL  -5 -21  -18  -15  -5 -12  -9  -6  -3  0  3  6  9  Employment Note.

The large increase in household debt over the past fifteen years coincides to a large degree with the rise in housing prices (see Figure 7). One important reason for this is that the supply of housing has been small in relation to demand. After the crisis in the 1990s, housing construction in Sweden has been remarkably low, lower than in most comparable countries. The reasons are not entirely clear, but there are a number of explanations that are usually given, such as high construction costs, demanding regulations and regulated rents. I do not  11  Jeremy Stein at the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors has expressed it as the advantage of monetary policy being that it “gets in all of the cracks” (Stein, 2013, p. 17). The Riksbank has also raised this argument in various contexts, see for instance, Ingves (2010) and Nyberg (2011). 12  In a study of 18 OECD countries over the period 1921–2011, Bordo and Landon-Lane (2013) show that expansionary monetary policy has a significant effect on asset prices, particularly during periods when asset prices have increased rapidly, followed by a later severe downward adjustment. Maddaloni and Peydró (2013) find in a study of data for the euro area that banks ease their credit conditions during periods with low policy rates, even when the borrowers’ credit risk is held constant. 13  See, for example, Blanchard, Dell’Ariccia and Mauro (2013), Borio (2013), Carney (2013), Smets (2013) and Stein (2013).
Very soon we will reach out to stakeholders to join us in this most meaningful project. 13. Thank you. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches

It was clear in September that the labour market had tightened further. The increase in the number of persons employed had been around as large as we were expecting in the June Report. However, the number of people in the labour force had not increased at the same rate we expected then. This meant that unemployment was also lower than we had predicted. Given these signs of a tighter labour market, it was fairly reasonable to believe that wages would increase more rapidly in future than they had done in previous years. But we could note that this was not yet visible in the statistics. The picture painted by the National Mediation Office’s statistics shows very moderate increases. But as I pointed out at our September meeting, it is probable that this picture will change when the new central wage agreements signed in the spring begin to make their mark in their respective sectors. And just as for developments in the labour market as a whole, this is something we follow closely. As I have just noted, it is now clear that an increasing number of people are working. It is normally the case that when many new people obtain work towards the end of an upturn phase of the economic cycle, the work is a little less efficient, that is, productivity growth declines. And this is just what we have seen during the first half of this year.
They will probably have to satisfy international requirements placed on similar systems. This is not to say that Norges Bank will dictate specific solutions for these systems, but that we will demand that risk be identified and brought under control, and that there be satisfactory solutions for dealing with crisis situations. Several alternative solutions may be possible. The banks will have to decide for themselves within the limits set by sound risk management. 11  BIS Review 7/2000  An example may serve to illustrate this. Risk in net settlement arises primarily because of the time-lag between payment and settlement. It has been common up to now for the payee bank to make funds available to its customer - pending the final transfer of funds from the payer bank in the settlement. This practice can lead to large and unforeseen exposure before settlement is finalised. If the payee bank postpones crediting instead, credit risk will be eliminated from the net settlement, but at the expense of efficiency - because the customers receive funds one (or perhaps two) days later. The advantages of delayed crediting must therefore be weighed against the disadvantages. My point here is that the banks themselves must be responsible for this assessment, while we at Norges Bank must evaluate whether the relevant measures are sufficient for promoting the objective of the law. Let me add that licensing does not mean that Norges Bank has issued a stamp of approval for the technical solutions of the interbank systems.

While these initiatives bode well for inclusiveness, the government must be careful not to excessively gear government spending towards populist policies that eventually add financial burden to the already-tight budget and sovereign debt in the future. In particular, it is important that the government prioritize and balance between public consumption and public investment accordingly. More importantly, efficient management with good governance will be the key ingredients to policy success in this regard. For our part, the Bank of Thailand has also put inclusiveness as one of the main agenda in the Financial Master Plan II, other than efficiency and provision of financial infrastructure. The objective is to provide financial access for all, particularly to the underserved, in an efficient and financially viable manner without compromising financial stability and prudence. This is still an on-going process which we are committed to. Ladies and Gentlemen, Before ending my talk this evening, I would like to address some of the concerns raised by Japanese corporations in Thailand, as reported in a survey from JETRO (Japan External Trade Organization). The key concerns include political stability, development of customs-related system and human resource development. On politics, I have good faith that the upcoming election is another important step towards political stability, while commitment to improving inclusiveness mentioned earlier would bring a long-term solution to the country.