The emergence of substantial markets in forward, futures, options swaps and other derivative instruments has significantly altered the conduct of borrowing, investment and risk management activities. The significant economic benefits of financial derivatives include: (i) permitting the unbundling and trading in risks, (ii) the ability to hedge price risks and to synthesise investments with greater efficiency and lower costs, (iii) and an increasing liquidity of and trading in financial assets. I would expect this process of constant innovation to continue in the decade ahead. First, because innovation is a natural feature of modern financial markets. The expansion of the credit derivatives in the last five years illustrates how fast new instruments cans develop and expand. And, second, because markets are still incomplete, in the sense that some risks cannot be efficiently hedged or transferred in the current environment. B  Incomplete markets and intergenerational risks  One interesting example is demographic risk, and more generally, the efficient transfer of risk between different generations. Currently, markets may not be well equipped to deal with intergenerational risk that simultaneously affects different generations living at the same time. Many developed countries are going through a demographic transition, sometimes called the old age crisis. According to the World Bank’s 1994 report for instance, by 2030 there will be 1.4 billion people in the world aged over sixty, versus 500 million in 1990. So, we are experiencing a transition to an economy with many more aged dependents relative to the active workforce.

Financial intermediaries are provided with sufficient incentives to improve their risk-management techniques. Therefore, the financial system is better able to absorb shocks without increasing the effects of such shocks on the economy. Broadly speaking, this seems correct to me. The financial system has coped with remarkable success and with few signs of instability with the various episodes of financial turmoil and shocks in recent years. Market-functioning difficulties were short-lived. The impact of these episodes on the real economies of industrialised countries was generally limited. However, we want to make sure that financial institutions and markets help to absorb and redistribute the shocks occurring in the real economy. We don't want them, in general, to be an additional source of shocks. In this regard, two specific questions come to the mind of policy makers. The first relates very simply to our ability to understand what is going on in the financial system when innovations permanently introduce additional layers of sophistication and complexity. As is often the case with  BIS Review 64/2006  3  financial innovations, evaluating the risk they entail requires the use of complex techniques that are not always sufficiently tried and tested 6 .The second issue, singled out by Rajan himself, is about incentives, an issue made especially important by the shift from depository intermediation to professional asset management. The system of incentives under which managers operate should be closely and permanently aligned with the interests of investors.