Should such a scenario materialize, a policy mix of low policy rate and high reserve requirement ratios may be implemented for a long period, both to balance domestic and foreign demand and for macroprudential purposes. If global economic problems further aggravate and domestic economic activity assumes a stagnation trend, we may have to utilize all policy instruments with their effect being on the easing side. Although downside risks persist, there are also upside risks regarding global economy, particularly driven by the lagged impacts of the exceptionally loose policies implemented by the advanced economies over the past two years. If the global economy assumes a faster-than-expected recovery, global inflationary pressures may occur and thus trigger a tightening in the monetary policies of advanced economies. The materialization of such a scenario would mean higher global interest rates and domestic demand-driven inflationary pressures, and thus necessitate increasing both policy rates and reserve requirements. Oil and other commodity prices have displayed rapid increases in the recent period. If the rise in commodity prices persists, this may have implications on the general pricing behavior given the strong pace of domestic demand. Should such a risk materialize in the upcoming period and hamper the attainment of medium-term inflation targets, there may be stronger tightening than was envisaged in the baseline scenario. However, the policy mix may vary depending on the developments regarding foreign demand, capital flows, and the outlook for credit growth. We will continue to closely monitor fiscal policy developments while formulating our monetary policy.

Exceptionally loose monetary policies adopted by advanced economies to eliminate the downside risks on economic activity not only boosted global liquidity but also stimulated the search for yield, which encouraged more capital flows into emerging economies. Moreover, the weak recovery in developed economies – Turkey’s main export destinations, dampened foreign demand growth (Figure 2). Low interest rates across the globe, soaring imports driven by strong credit growth amid increased short-term capital inflows, and weaker foreign demand caused the current account deficit to widen rapidly in 2010. All of these developments prompted the CBRT to adopt a strategy, which partly targets financial stability besides the main objective of price stability, parallel to the conditions referred to as the “new normal”. In this context, as stated previously, the CBRT has actively begun to use tools such as required reserves and liquidity management, in addition to the one-week repo auction rate, the main policy instrument. 1. Inflation developments  Having summarized the global economic conditions and the implications of this outlook on the monetary policy, I would now like to inform you about the inflation developments of the last quarter. As you will recall, we underlined in the October 2010 Inflation Report that the increases in unprocessed food and tobacco prices – which are beyond the immediate control of the CBRT – added about 5 percentage points to annual inflation, and suggested that these items would leave sizable room for disinflation. Indeed, inflation dropped by 2.83 percentage points, yielding a rate of 6.4 percent, meeting the year-end inflation target.