samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The central banks also cooperate on matters of this type in the framework of the Bank for International Settlements in Basle, Switzerland, where representatives of central banks throughout the world meet regularly once a month. Conclusion To sum up, the financial system is undergoing a rapid transformation and development. The middle of the 19th century is commonly associated with the industrial revolution. Perhaps future historians will see the late 20th century as the era of the financial revolution. Europe’s move towards a single currency will accelerate the trend. The transformation and development of the financial system will ultimately contribute to future prosperity. But experience has taught us that it is a development which needs to be monitored very closely and presupposes a high degree of discipline in economic policy. It requires a great deal from decision-makers in the political system and the supervisory authorities, as well as from those of us who work in central banks. BIS Review 81/1998  -6-  Developments in the financial field are creating large opportunities. But it is also important to bear in mind that major, far-reaching changes normally entail risks. In view of these risks, every agent in the financial system needs to act wisely and discerningly. Only in this way can the full benefits be drawn from the opportunities that financial developments are providing. BIS Review 81/1998

Despite all the European convergence and integration, financial systems in different EU member states still look and work very differently. Trying to administer them from a single centre according to a single set of rules might be like trying, say, to feed all the animals in a zoo with a single type of food. As an illustration: the recent ECFIN Retail Banking Survey says:   in Austria almost 100% of house purchasing loans feature variable interest rates, while in France the share is only about 10%.   countries differ substantially in the share of owner-occupied housing and therefore in the importance of the mortgage market;    they differ in how intensively they use electronic means of payment;    in the significance of building societies and credit unions;    in tax and other incentives that the government provides for certain types of financial transactions;    in the extent to which local banks trade in various non-plain vanilla products such as derivatives;    in the share of subsidiaries and branches of foreign financial institutions and, more generally, in ownership structure    in the loan-to-deposit ratio, which varies from roughly 70% in some countries to more than 200% in others;    in the degree of local market concentration;  etc. There are many more examples, some of them influenced by long-term developments, some by entrenched behavioural differences and habits.
Similarly, the Kwacha depreciated against the Pound Sterling and Euro by 3.6% and 8.3%, respectively. This was partly on account of the US dollar appreciation following the strengthening of the US economy during the latter part of the year. The Pound and Euro weakness moderated on the back of optimism that their economies would continue to rebound. The Kwacha, appreciated against the rand by 10.7% to an average K0.5596/ZAR, reflecting the slowdown in mining output, following continued labour unrest in the South African mining sector. In the first quarter of 2014, the Kwacha depreciated by 10.0% to K6.09 per US dollar. This development was largely attributed to a high demand due to a higher growth in imports relative to exports, as well as investor sentiments associated with the tapering of quantitative easing in the United States of America coupled with falling copper prices on the global markets. Similar weakening of currencies was observed in most emerging market economies such as Ghana, South Africa and Turkey. It should be noted that the Bank of Zambia has continued to implement a market determined exchange rate and has intervened in the market to smooth out volatility and accumulate reserves. According to a recent study conducted by Professor John Weeks of the University of London, there is strong evidence that, the Bank of Zambia’s participation in the foreign exchange market to minimise volatility in the exchange rate has in general been effective.

Durmuş Y lmaz: Recent developments in international markets and their impact on the Turkish economy Keynote address by Mr Durmuş Yılmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the Euromoney Turkey Finance & Investment Forum, Istanbul, 18 June 2008. *  *  *  Dear Guests, I am delighted to be here to address such a distinguished audience in Istanbul. I hope this timely and important Forum will contribute much to debates about future growth prospects of Turkey, through exploring many prominent issues. Let me begin with recent developments in international markets and their impacts on the Turkish economy. As you may all know, both developed and emerging countries have been suffering from higher inflation and lower growth rates for a while. There are two main reasons behind this undesirable economic situation. One is the turbulence that emerged in the second half of 2007 in financial markets; and the other one is the continuously increasing global commodity prices. The second half of 2007 was not an easy period for central bankers – and 2008 is likely to be even more challenging. There is an apparent acceleration in consumer prices inflation all over the world and the annual inflation even in developed countries is at its highest level of the last 16 years. Improvement in the wealth of big developing countries such as China and India has created a demand-driven pressure on commodity prices.
This means we trim out the most volatile price movements in the consumer basket to achieve the best sense we can of underlying price stability. In the July statistics, we saw some of the fastest rates of increases in a while for the largest, leastvolatile components of core services, such as rent and purchased meals.3 So the jury is out as to whether we have seen a reversal in the recent upward ascent of prices toward our 2 percent target. As to achieving “moderate interest rates”, the dashboard shows that we have overshot the mark. Interest rates on the lowest-quality credits – on “junk” – are historically low, as are the spreads they are priced at above the current historically low nominal rates for investmentgrade credits. I have been involved with the credit markets since 1975. I have never seen such ebullient credit markets. The 30-year Treasury yield is trading at a hair over 3 percent. If Ambassador Jaishankar and I were to abandon our service to our respective nations and form a company, we would use our good names to borrow as much money as we could at current rates.

Success in achieving these goals will require collaboration and engagement with the industry. We need to understand industry views on the benefits and costs of addressing these gaps and opportunities, the technical and operational impacts of potential solutions, and the associated safety and settlement issues. In the coming months, we intend to work with industry stakeholders to facilitate development of a shared vision for enhancing the future payments system. A recent Payments Strategy Roundtable in Chicago was a first step in this effort, we envision many forums to gather diverse industry perspectives. Our ongoing collaboration with The Clearing House leadership on strategic issues is critical to this planning process, given our key roles in common as payment system operators. In September, our Chicago Payments Symposium will offer a platform to report on the progress of our work. All of us at Federal Reserve Financial Services are committed to working collaboratively with the leaders in this room and the entire payments industry to implement innovations that meet user needs today and into the future. We thank you for your ongoing partnership in these endeavors. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
We must continue to make progress towards economic union in order to achieve more and to further join forces in the new international context. To do so, Europe should seize the opportunity to move forward on three concrete steps towards Economic Union: The first step, as of today, is to build a “Financing and Investment Union” (FIU) to steer abundant savings into productive investment. Resources are not lacking: in the euro area, the current account surplus, which is a measure of the excess of savings over investment, stands at more than 3% of GDP. This trend is often described as a “saving glut” but I believe it is more fitting to talk of an “investment crunch” [slide 6], since we lack productive investment. The FIU would merge together the initiatives already in place: the Capital Markets Union of course, but also the Juncker Investment Plan – which aims, through the use of limited public guarantees, to foster private investments totalling EUR 630 billion in six years –, and the Banking Union. We need to put the pieces of the puzzle together in order to magnify their impact through synergies. There are two objectives: [slide 7] increased diversification of firms’ financing – with more equity financing –, and higher resilience of the euro area thanks to private risk-sharing across domestic borders. [slide 8] The second step, after the FIU, would be a collective economic strategy for the euro area.

But in an uncertain world, France appears as a rather stable country, seen from the resilience of its economy, the strength of its financial sector, as well as the solidity of its political institutions. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
However, the Riksbank’s assessment is that the weakening of the krona is temporary and primarily a result of the financial crisis. In times of financial turbulence investors tend to turn to the larger currencies, which are regarded as "safer”. The result of this flight to quality is that smaller currencies like the Swedish krona weaken. The Norwegian krona has also depreciated substantially. But there is a risk that this weakening will be more prolonged. This would normally lead to exports strengthening and imports slowing down, and at the same time provide an inflationary impulse. During a normal economic downturn it may be an advantage that the currency depreciates in this way and thus dampens the downturn. In the current circumstances, with a serious global financial crisis that may result in financing problems for entire countries, the situation may become more problematic. Several countries in Europe, in addition to Iceland, have seen their currencies depreciate substantially. In December the forecast was that GDP will decline by 0.5 per cent during 2009, but that growth will recover in 2010. The information received since then indicates that GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was weaker than we had been expecting, which will also push down the average for the year 2009. Industrial production, production of services and the activity index all fell in November. The National Institute of Economic Research’s Economic  8  BIS Review 7/2009  Tendency Survey and the purchasing managers’ index continued to fall in December, reaching all-time lows.

For example, we successfully dealt with three major attacks on the Denar exchange rate, in the spring of 2001, in the autumn of 2004 and in the spring of 2009, although these attacks were caused by quite different reasons. With this action we justified the confidence of citizens, the confidence that is the greatest treasure, the greatest reserve of the National Bank. Also, the careful study of economic theory leads to the perception that the conditions under which the weakening of the domestic currency would lead to improved net exports are not at all present in the Republic of Macedonia. The increased sales of Macedonian goods and services abroad, but at lower prices expressed in Euros, would not lead to foreign exchange inflows, which could offset the more expensive imports of energy and machinery. In the imports of the latter, we depend almost exclusively on the world rather than on the domestic prices of production, so the result could be even worsening, instead of improving the balance of goods and services. To the same end are the different, but more emphasized arguments based on empirical studies: the competitiveness of the Macedonian economy is not reduced and the research of the effective exchange rates continuously shows their adequacy. This policy of stable exchange rate has caused the inflation in the Republic of Macedonia in the last fifteen years to average 2.1 percent, versus 1.9 percent in the countries of the Eurozone.
In a very direct way, policies aimed at promoting the transition towards a carbon-neutral economy are likely to affect the volatility of headline inflation and, more indirectly, climate change and the remedial actions needed to tackle it could affect our ability to achieve price stability through their impact on the so called natural interest rate, which is an important benchmark for inflation-targeting central banks when setting our interest rates. 2/6  It is still not clear the way climate change affects monetary policy and thus more analysis is needed to address the implications of climate risks on the economy and on monetary policy. Therefore, we have to step up our efforts to develop the tools and models needed for such an analysis. And, finally, climate change will affect the risks of the assets held on our balance sheets. Monetary policy implementation exposes us to such risks directly through holdings of assets and indirectly through collateral pledged by counterparties. In this regard, and very much related to my previous comments on the implications of climate change for the financial sector, central banks also have to step up their efforts to incorporate climate change into their risk management models and frameworks. And this, together with climate-related disclosure requirements, can decisively contribute to the correct pricing of climate-related risks by financial markets.

The first report (Climate-related Risk Drivers and their Transmission Channels) explores how climate-related risk drivers, including physical risks and transition risks, can arise and affect both banks and the banking system via micro- and macroeconomic transmission channels. 3/6  The second report (Climate-related Financial Risks – Measurement Methodologies) provides an overview of conceptual issues related to the risk measurement, as well as practical implementation by banks and banking supervisors. While echoing the existing research that climate-related financial risks do entail unique features, such as uncertainties associated with the nature of climate change, much longer time horizon for climate risks to manifest, lack of commonly accepted risk measurement methodologies etc, these two analytical reports conclude that traditional risk categories used by financial institutions and reflected in the Basel Framework (eg credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, operational risk) can be used to capture climaterelated financial risks. This conclusion is important, as it provides a strong conceptual foundation for the Committee’s next phase of work. Instead of treating climate-related financial risk as a new separate risk type, the Committee will explore possible measures within the current structure of the Basel Framework to address such risks. And this is where we are now. We are analysing the extent to which these risks can be addressed within the existing Basel framework, identify potential gaps in the current framework and consider possible measures to address any gaps. I view this as a key value-add to the various international initiatives that are underway.
BIS Review 131/2009  3

Former Governors, former and current Board members, as well as a great contingent of excellent economists and professionals have contributed to the design of monetary policy, a better understanding of our economy, and to administering an institution to which the country has entrusted great responsibility and to which we have an enormous obligation of excellence. Thank you very much. 4  BIS Review 156/2009  Table 1 Evolution of the central banks' autonomy index and inflation (*) I. Late 1980s Autonomy index Political Economic  Average inflation (1989)  Economies Advanced Emerging Developing  5.3% 18.6% 22.5%  0.39 0.27 0.27  Total 0.59 0.38 0.45  0.48 0.32 0.35  II. 2003 Average inflation (1989)  Economies Advanced Emerging Developing  Autonomy index Political Economic  2.1% 7.0% 8.4%  0.74 0.47 0.29  Total 0.81 0.75 0.67  0.77 0.61 0.48  (*) Countries with annual inflation above 100% were deleted from the sample. Sources: Arnone et al. (2007) and IMF. Figure 1  Drop in inflation and change in the autonomy of the central banks*  % drop in inflation  -0.2  -0.1 0  0.2  0.4  0.6  -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 Change in independence index  (*) Drop in inflation corresponds to the percent variation of average inflation between periods 1980-1989 and 2000-2008. Change in the independence index corresponds to the change in Arnone et al. (2007)'s autonomy index between the late 1980s and 2003. Sources: IMF and Arnone et al.
Recent developments in the SIC system Amid all these longer-term visions, we should be careful not to overlook changes that are just around the corner – or indeed, have already been introduced. So let me return to the present and talk about developments in cashless payment transactions that are already having a tangible effect on central banks around the world. For obvious reasons, my remarks will be based on the situation in Switzerland. As I have already mentioned, one of the SNB’s statutory mandates is to facilitate and secure the operation of cashless payment systems. One of the key ways in which we perform this duty is through our strategic guidance of the SIC payment system. This includes approving technical changes to the system and the rules of conduct for system participants, fixing operating hours and rates, and deciding who is granted access to the SIC system. At the same time, the SIC system is operated not by us, but by SIX Interbank Clearing; system participants are involved in the decision-making process and therefore play a direct part. This configuration makes SIC a market solution. Another feature is that the SIC system is used to settle not only interbank payments, but also a large proportion of retail payments. 8 By virtue of its role in SIC, the SNB has a substantial influence on retail payments in Swiss francs and is, in turn, also impacted by dynamic forces at work in this area.

Mugur Isărescu: Economic governance in the European Union Speech by Mr Mugur Isărescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the Conference “Economic Governance in the European Union”, jointly organized by the European Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the National Bank of Romania, Bucharest, 10 June 2011. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, Distinguished audience, It is a pleasure be the host of the Conference on “Economic Governance in the European Union”, an event jointly organized by the European Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the National Bank of Romania. We are glad to welcome you all and our special guests: Mr. Gheorghe Ialomiţianu – the Romanian Minister of Finance, Mrs. Elena Flores, Director for Policy Strategy and Coordination in the European Commission’s DGECFIN, Mr. Theodor Stolojan, Member of European Parliament and former Prime Minister of Romania, Mrs. Iuliana Dascalu, Director in the Finance Ministry of Romania, Mr. Hans Martens, chief executive of the European Policy Centre Think-tank and Mr. Daniel Dăianu, Economics Professor, former Member of European Parliament and Finance Minister of Romania. A special note of thanks to my colleagues Deputy Governor Cristian Popa and the Chief Economist Valentin Lazea, who, together with our special guests, have responded to the challenge of debating a hot topic. In these challenging times, economic governance was brought to the spotlight by the recent global economic and financial crisis.
As national authorities we are all convinced that our national discretions are worth fighting for and we take pride when they are included in the final drafts. Perhaps we should ask ourselves more often whether our discretions are motivated by a fundamental need or just deep-rooted tradition or, even worse, our unconscious caving in to special interest groups. I realise this might be naïve but why not take this opportunity of change and think new instead of designing EU regulation on the basis of existing, often imperfect, national regulation. The need for a common rule book for big cross-border banking groups is often raised by the industry. In principle, we are sympathetic to this wish. If a common rule book means “just” common rules we are certainly moving in that direction. One of the main objectives of the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) is to promote convergence of supervisory rules and practices. However, in the sense of common or centralised decision making by authorities, I think it is still far away from coming true. As long as the implementation and interpretation of directives and rules is done on a national level it will take time before we have a common rule book. Still, the aim should be to eliminate or reduce as much as possible these differences. Remaining differences in supervisory practices between countries should be clearly disclosed in order to improve the predictability of the EU regulatory system – which is another area where the CEBS is doing important work.

All over the globe, the financial markets are becoming more integrated and financial institutions as well as financial infrastructure companies are consolidating domestically as well as cross-border. The challenge touches all the aspects of regulatory involvement – crisis prevention, crisis management and crisis resolution. Cross-border integration of financial markets… In the EU, the process of cross-border integration has been actively promoted by the creation of the euro and the ongoing harmonisation of regulation and supervision – in the last years epitomised by the Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP). Admittedly, financial markets integration in the EU has so far been a mixed picture. Until now, integration has mostly taken place in wholesale markets, such as the money market and the bond markets. Many investment banking segments such as capital raising and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for large corporates are also dominated by global giants. In contrast, retail financial services are still to a very large extent controlled by domestic players, at least in the old member states. … and institutions… My guess is that we still have only seen the beginning of cross-border integration. Banking integration will probably not primarily take place through direct cross-border provision of services but through cross-border bank M&A. Integration of ownership will result in integration of lending/funding, organisation, products and services.