samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Norges Bank’s most important instruments are its two key rates - the interest rate on banks’ deposits and the overnight lending rate. Experience shows that the central bank’s key rates have a fairly substantial impact on money market rates at the very short end of the market, i.e. overnight and one-week rates. The effect on interest rates on financial instruments with longer maturities is not as direct. Here, expectations concerning the central bank’s course of action and general confidence in monetary policy play a role, as does the level of very short-term rates. Money market rates influence the krone exchange rate directly through the return that can be achieved on krone positions, but also indirectly through the effect on the outlook for the real economy and price and cost inflation in Norway. A higher interest rate will, therefore, normally result in an appreciation. Both the appreciation and the interest rate increase will lower demand. The appreciation will also in itself lead to lower inflation on imports, while lower demand will reduce the general inflation level. Over time both the inflation rate and the activity level will influence the exchange rate. Thus, Norges Bank needs to exercise discretion in monetary policy by considering the effects of interest rate changes not only directly on the exchange rate, but also on the rest of the economy, and to focus on the fundamental conditions for exchange rate stability over time.

At a time when globalisation may leave many behind in advanced economies, when the debate about inequalities is coming back to the forefront – and these are real challenges behind the populist wave –, now is not the moment to give up our social model. Europe and Japan are quite close in their choices. How to move forward: four accelerators of the Economic Union. The assets that I have presented constitute a valuable achievement for Europe. Now, we must actively build on them, and not lazily rest on our laurels. I will now present some avenues of improvement. Indeed, we have clearly succeeded in building a Monetary Union, but this is not sufficient. It is now time to make concrete progress on Economic Union, on which we have not been very effective yet. We are in agreement on the "why". Monetary policy cannot be the only game in town, and therefore we should not overburden it. Furthermore we aim at greater stability, to counter the risk of a new crisis befalling an unprotected euro area, with all its damaging political and economic repercussions; and  Page 5 sur 6 greater growth, to catch up our past lag on the United States and finally treat the fatal disease of mass unemployment in Europe. As for the “when”, we obviously have a unique historic opportunity: with the economic recovery; with the new French President and also stable governments in the Netherlands and hopefully in Germany.
Miguel Fernández Ordóñez: Presentation of the Annual Report 2009 Address by Mr Miguel Fernández Ordóñez, Governor of the Bank of Spain, to the Governing Council of the Bank of Spain on the Presentation of the Annual Report 2009, Madrid, 16 June 2010. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, The presentation of the Annual Report for 2009 is taking place at a particularly complex juncture for Europe and, most especially, for the Spanish economy. What began as an isolated fiscal crisis episode in a euro area Member State has turned into an event of systemic scope that has obliged the European authorities and national governments to adopt measures on an unprecedented scale to defend the stability of the area. At the same time, the spread and heightening of tensions have firmly focused analysts’ and markets’ attention on the situation and on economic policy responses in those countries which, like Spain, face comparatively more demanding challenges and are, consequently, perceived as potentially more vulnerable. This is a demanding conjunctural situation, for which it is difficult to find points of reference in our recent past. And more than ever before, it is important to diagnose accurately the true scale of the challenges our economy faces, to prepare promptly the tools needed to meet the challenges and to use them as decisively and forcefully as the situation requires.

As part of this essential restructuring, all institutions, according to their individual characteristics and circumstances, must strengthen their solvency, resizing and improving their efficiency in the medium term. In short, the challenge consists in adapting to the new reality in which the financial sector will have to operate in the future. The Spanish banking system is generally in a sound position from which to approach this restructuring process. But the present situation is complicated. On the one hand, the need for loan loss provisions will continue to dent profit and loss accounts, as defaults persist against a continuing weak economic backdrop. And on the other, the competition to secure retail funding pushes up the cost of borrowing and drives down margins. Strains in the wholesale funding markets add further pressure. They also entail higher risk premia and, if they persist and intensify, could make access to the wholesale markets more difficult. BIS Review 86/2010  7  Moreover, the sector must absorb the internal imbalances that built up in the years of strong growth in the economy and in banking activity. These imbalances, which are greater in some Spanish deposit institutions than in others, are essentially threefold. The first imbalance derives from their over-reliance on wholesale market funding. Although the term structure of Spain’s financial institutions’ debt is mostly medium and long-term, the severity of the crisis and investor flight in view of a widespread loss in confidence put pressure on institutions, which responded by stepping up their efforts to attract deposits.
The extension also expands the FLS to cover lending to financial leasing and factoring corporations (which are a source of credit for SMEs). We have been clear that the design of the extended FLS particularly encourages lending to SME’s in determining access to the FLS. Incentives to lend to SME’s are therefore in place,  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  no doubt about that. But we cannot promise that the results will follow almost as night follows day, because there is more to it than that. Let me end, by advertising a piece of work done by your chairman-elect, chairing a group that recently produced a report on SME lending in Northern Ireland. In that report, Kate and her colleagues point to structural market failures affecting the supply of finance to SMEs, which mainly relate to imperfect or asymmetric information, and which tend to be exacerbated in times of heighted economic uncertainty and risk aversion. Likewise, the report points to information failures on the demand side for businesses seeking finance. The report goes on to note that over the last five years there has been a market correction as banks have moved away from a lending approach based on property as security to one that is more based on evidence of a business plan that indicates returns to the firm that will repay borrowing.

Muhammad Al-Jasser: Review of the latest economic developments in Saudi Arabia Speech by His Excellency Dr Muhammad Al-Jasser, Governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, on the presentation of the 46th Annual Report of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Riyadh, 25 September 2010. *  *  *  It is a great pleasure for me that the celebration of our National Day coincides with the submission of the 46th Annual Report of Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency which reviews the latest economic developments in the Kingdom for fiscal year 1430/1431H. (2009) and the first quarter of the current year. Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, The impact of the global financial crisis on the world economy continued during 2009, with the world production of goods and services recording a downturn of 0.6 percent in 2009. However, economic variables over the past months of the current year indicate positive growth rates. Given that our national economy is characterized by its openness to the external world and high levels of trade integration with it, it is natural to affect and be affected by developments in the global economic system. The growth rate of GDP at constant prices declined to 0.6 percent in the Kingdom during 2009 compared to 4.2 percent in the preceding year. The non-oil sector maintained good growth rates, growing by 3.8 percent in 2009 compared to 4.3 percent in the preceding year.
The indicator is more reliable after 1997 as it is based on a greater number of underlying measures. BIS Review 50/2008  9

Lessons from the crisis The high equity share, the capacity to increase the risk level in certain periods and the need for diversification are derived from the Fund’s characteristics. Let me now review some of the lessons from the financial crisis that have also shaped the development of the Fund’s strategy. These changes are closer to the centre of the European debt crisis. The risk tolerance of the Fund is to a large degree defined by the strategic equity share, which, as I mentioned, is 60 per cent. Since the Fund is heavily exposed to risk by virtue of its relatively high equity share, the function of government bonds is in essence to reduce the overall volatility of the portfolio. From this perspective, the most important role for government bonds is to hedge the equity portfolio. The hedge is best achieved by holding liquid government bonds with high credit quality. Typically, this entails an overweight of the safest, low-yield government bonds. Conversely, high-yield government bonds are more volatile, and thus they do not serve the overall purpose as a hedge in a global portfolio. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Slide 14: Fixed income: new benchmark The Fund’s benchmark index for bonds is divided into 70 percent public and 30 percent corporate debt. Previously, the allocation in the bond portfolio was based on market weights, and thus the portfolio was allocated in proportion to volume of the sovereign debt issued by each country.
The issue of measuring price stability However, this raises another issue, especially in the current context of muted inflationary pressures but ample fluctuations in asset prices: are we measuring inflation accurately? Is price stability being ensured, in the context of large movements in asset prices? Shouldn’t asset prices be taken into account when defining price stability? Up to now, this debate has focused on the role asset prices may play as leading indicators of inflation: one rationale behind this thinking may be that asset valuation is computed in a forward looking manner, and therefore asset prices embed expectations about future economic growth and future inflationary pressures. Empirical evidence gathered on such an issue tend to support the idea that some asset prices, housing prices in particular, may actually play such a role. However, this theory has to be qualified by the fact that, as I mentioned earlier, wealth effects are difficult to establish in a definitive manner. This is probably less true for the US, although this is debatable and could be discussed in this conference, but this is more likely to be true for the euro area. Moreover, there might be a danger that asset prices diverge from the CPI, as this was observed over the last few years. There might be an internal conflict here if the objective of price stability is defined by aggregating the changes in the CPI and the changes in asset prices, and this is a crucial issue since the nature of both types of prices is fairly different.

Anita Angelovska Bezoska: Journalists are one of the main transmitters of monetary policy messages Address by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the Journalist Workshop - 2018, organized by the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, Skopje, 25 December 2018. * * * Distinguished media representatives,  Welcome to the fourth Journalist Workshop hosted by the NBRM. I am glad to see you in greater numbers this year, which is confirmation of your interest in the topics that will be the focus of today’s event. Allow me to take a brief look at several basic, yet important aspects of central bank communication: 1. Why is central bank transparency and communication important and needed? 2. How has central bank communication evolved over the years? What were the challenges in the period after the outbreak of the global crisis and how were they addressed globally? 3. Challenges in central bank communication in the Republic of Macedonia. A comparison between the current and the past transparency level and central bank communication shows an exceptional transformation in this segment. The need for strengthening central bank transparency was brought to the fore for the first time in the 1990s, implying enhanced communication with the public, including the media. This change is associated with the concept of central bank independence, or the independence of the monetary policy from fiscal policy.
Malaysia has made great strides in eradicating poverty. This is the result of numerous efforts to meet the needs of society’s most vulnerable, and to provide them with opportunities for upward social mobility. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 crisis reminds us that shocks affect different segments unevenly, and this has clearly exposed gaps in our social protection system. It is therefore critical to accompany the transition to high income with efforts to close these gaps. The growing economic pie will provide the state with more capacity to deepen its social protection. We must use this space to future-proof the system to impending structural changes: Malaysia will transition to an ‘aged nation’ status, with the old-age dependency ratio expected to increase to 16.6% by 2040. However, in a 2018 Employees Provident Fund study, two out of three active contributors are projected to have insufficient retirement savings to meet a minimum pension of RM1,000 per month. 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  The nature of work will evolve, as we transition to a more knowledge-based, service-based and gig-based economy. Work arrangements are expected to become more flexible, and provisions must be made to ensure that workers remain adequately protected. Notably, provisions for shorter and more flexible working hours may entice women to participate in the labour force. The third change is the displacement of certain jobs, as we enter the dawn of the next industrial revolution. The trend towards automation and AI requires a smooth transition of the workforce into new skills and occupation areas.

There are not a few cases when clients are not well informed on the interest rate they have to pay for their loans or on the criteria applied by the banks to benefit credit. Communication from depositors is neither the best. While small changes of deposit interests may be justified by the changes of market conditions, changes somewhat stronger need to be accompanied by full relevant information and explanations. The strengthening of this transparency should be accomplished not only in the name of ethics but also in the name of the increase of market competition. The system can play a greater role in reducing cash in the economy, by increasing and improving further the level of services. The positive recent developments have given their effects in reducing cash quantity in the economy. On the other hand, we have conducted an intense public activity, of informative and promotional character, where meetings of another nature have frequently been held and in which we were concretely involved as a banking system. Allow me just to remind you the open meetings we have already organised with the business of utility services and with that of Treasury bills primary market. I hope that now, after finalising the Automated Electronic Clearing House project, each bank should think seriously of increasing the benefit degree from this new facility offered by the Bank of Albania. After the implementation of this project, I estimate that we should think more seriously of increasing the number and the quality of electronic payments.
And AlphaGo learned thousands of years of human knowledge within a matter of months. Against that backdrop, there has been a surge of recent interest in the potential for large-scale job losses, as machines displace humans. This fear is not new. Fears about job displacement have been a recurrent theme for 300 years, as machines first displaced agricultural workers and, more recently, factory workers. These shifts were huge. In 1750, half the labour force worked in the primary sector. Today, it is 1%. Estimates of the potential scale of future job displacement are highly uncertain. Studies suggest between 10% and 50% of the global workforce could see their jobs disrupted significantly, if not displaced entirely,  12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  12  over the next 10-15 years.26 At the upper end, that would be almost 2 billion people globally whose livelihoods could be significantly disrupted. This is vastly more than any previous industrial revolution. As in the past, the costs of this disruption are unlikely to be spread evenly. Recent studies have shown that those at greatest risk are likely to work in sectors and regions still reeling from earlier Industrial Revolutions. Jobs among lower-skilled workers doing routine tasks in the service sector in post-industrial towns and cities are ripe for automation.27 The BBC website has an app which puts this probability at 83%.

In this respect, indicators of inflation expectations over the medium to longer term remain firmly anchored in line with the Governing Council’s aim of keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Risks to the outlook for inflation are broadly balanced. On the downside they relate, in particular, to the outlook for economic activity, while on the upside they relate to higher than expected commodity prices. Furthermore, increases in indirect taxation and administered prices may be stronger than currently expected owing to the need for fiscal consolidation in the coming years. Turning to the monetary analysis, the latest data confirm a continued deceleration in monetary dynamics. In May, the annual growth rate of M3 declined further to 3.7%, with that of loans to the private sector falling further to 1.8% – the lowest rates since the start of Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union. This concurrent deceleration supports the assessment of a slower underlying pace of monetary expansion and low inflationary pressures over the medium term. In May, the outstanding amounts of most components of M3 showed a contraction, reflecting, to a large extent, the recent declines in interest rates paid on short-term deposits and marketable instruments and the increased allocation of funds to instruments outside M3 that these may have fostered. Following a substantial strengthening in April, the growth of M1, while having remained strong, also moderated in May. The short-term developments in M3 have been volatile over the past few months.
If their bank becomes insolvent, customers’ claims to central bank money cannot be redeemed, or can be redeemed only up to the maximum amount covered by the deposit guarantee scheme. 5 It is mainly in times of crisis that the public becomes aware of this risk. Were this not the case, there would be no runs on banks such as have been experienced time and again in the past. Credit risk is, however, offset by a number of advantages. Unlike banknotes, sight deposits with banks provide access to services in connection with payment transactions. In normal times, they also generate interest income. How are deposits at commercial banks created? How do deposits at commercial banks, i.e. customer deposits in Swiss francs, come into existence? In our present-day financial system, the creation of deposits by banks is closely linked to the granting of loans. When a bank provides a loan, it credits the amount in question to the borrower in the form of a deposit to his or her account. This leads to an increase in credits on the assets side and in customer deposits on the liabilities side of the bank’s balance sheet. 5  In Switzerland, the national deposit guarantee scheme covers a maximum of CHF 100,000 per customer in the event of a bank failure. Page 4/12  As a rule, borrowers will immediately use their new deposit to acquire the goods or services for which they requested and received the loan.

If we look back to the time when the first deposit banks were established in Italy in the late Middle Ages, we see that the financial system has undergone continual change. After the establishment of banks, central banks and bank regulation emerged, partially in response to the fragility of the banking system in its early years. What we see today is a system that has evolved incrementally over time. While there are differences between countries – often for historical reasons – they all have a fractional reserve system, i.e. they do not have sovereign money. Page 11/12  We will no doubt continue to see changes. Technological advances, which are notoriously difficult to predict, are among the key drivers here. It is therefore hard to know precisely how the banking system will look in the future. It is clear, however, that central banks and financial market supervisory authorities will need to find ways of responding to these changes. This is not a new challenge, but it is one we will have to face time and again. Page 12/12
Part of the puzzle of the crisis of 2007–09 was that the excessive leverage and private money creation took place outside of commercial banks, and outside of firms that were subject to broad consolidated supervision – in the “shadows” as some have put it. It is important that we recognize that in the modern era the conditions for a financial crisis can be created by nonbanks. A lesson of the crisis of 2007–09 was that financial crises, modern ones, do not have to be characterized by lines from bank teller windows in which depositors are withdrawing cash, or even be centered in banks. Instead, in a more market-oriented, in contrast to bank-oriented financial system, different sources of stress come to the fore. While employing a different recipe, the flavors of the crises are the same: financial intermediaries, through having overextended credit or engaged in an over-reliance on the issuance of short-term debt, or in the midst of a general panic, have difficulty in raising funds and are forced to sell off positions abruptly, putting further downward pressure on prices, worsening the situation systematically. Preparing for (unwanted) guests In response to the 2007–09 crisis, the policies of the Federal Reserve were focused primarily on liquidity injections, which can be thought of as replacing the privately created money that was being withdrawn from circulation as intermediaries delevered.

13 In Q1 2022 Financial Stability in Focus Bank of England sets out the role of cryptoassets and DeFi in the  financial system and identified potential risks associated with them. 14 Breeden (2022) talks about the economy’s transition to net-zero, and the role central banks can play to support  it. 7/7  BIS central bankers' speeches