samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I think it reasonable, as successfully done in the past, to build it in three stages. In the first stage, Member States would be free to join, and the Convergence Fund would be allocated to financing common goods such as European infrastructure investment or refugee settlement. In a second stage that would represent a significant step up, this budget could become a stabilisation instrument, centralising a well-defined set of policy instruments, such as a European layer of unemployment insurance. The third and final stage of fiscal integration would only be achieved if agreement can be found both on financing (direct revenue-raising capacity and common debt issuance) and on the desirable level of business cycle synchronization. As access to this third stage would be linked to reduced risks, this perspective would be a powerful incentive for national discipline and commitment as shown during the march to the Euro. C.  How to set up a legitimate institution with a genuine administrative capacity? Further integration and democratic accountability should progress together, as discussed in my recent article with Jens Weidmann. We need to enable the European economic administration to be more efficient, while establishing strong enough political legitimacy to ensure balance between liability and control. A European Treasury headed by a euro area Finance Minister would have a chance of embodying such a delicate undertaking. These institutional changes obviously require a new Treaty, notwithstanding the “low hanging fruits” we can and must pick up in the coming year. First, we need a legitimacy-enhancing appointment process.

I want to pay tribute to Helmut Schmidt, one of the greatest Europeans, who said clearly in Frankfurt in October 2011: “There was a failure to  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  set the economic rules of the game for the currency union. A powerful authority with responsibility for fiscal and economic policy was not set up.” 1 In that spirit, I speak today as a committed European and a contributor to EMU since its outset, as well as a Member of the ECB Governing Council. Some of the ideas I will elaborate upon were put forward in my February joint paper with Jens Weidmann, even though what I will say today does not necessarily represent his views or those of other colleagues of the ECB or, naturally, those of the French government. While such ideas to enhance economic governance are not all new, their implementation is tricky: this will be the main thrust of my speech. Shifting from ideas to action is urgent if central banking is not to remain the only game in town. For this reason notably, central bankers can legitimately contribute to the debate. Yet, taking action will obviously be a decision for political leaders. This issue has already generated many prominent contributions: for instance Jean-Claude Trichet 2 in 2011 advocated the need for a European finance minister; Mario Draghi 3 called, in early 2015, for a “quantum leap” in European integration and institutional convergence and Ignazio Visco 4, last November, wished parallel and decisive progress on political Union.
Singapore banks are well-placed to meet the Basel III leverage ratio requirements, currently proposed as 3%. •  In fact, the three local banks have leverage ratios above 7%. MAS has had a liquidity requirement long before an international standard was developed and has recently increased the risk sensitivity of our liquidity rules. •  The three local banks’ Liquidity Coverage Ratio or LCR is already well above 100%, the target set by the Basel Committee for 2019. These strong buffers – built up in good times – are now serving us well as we enter a soft patch in economic conditions. •  The banking system’s ratio of non-performing loans went up to 1.9 % in Q2, from 1.3% a year ago. •  But the banking system has set aside provisions to cover more than 100% of its NPLs. There have been concerns raised about the impact of the oil and gas (O&G) sector. •  The O&G industry has been under pressure from low global oil prices for some time. •  We expect to see some of that pressure showing up in our banks’ NPLs. The banks have been actively managing the risks from the O&G sector. •  The banking system’s exposures to the O&G sector as a proportion of total exposures (i.e. including non-bank loans, debt securities and contingent liabilities) is less than 10%. •  Among the local banks, O&G exposures are even lower, at about 6%.

Ensuring adequate provision of a means of payment that is credit-risk free and fully and efficiently available and accessible to any potential user group is extremely important. To date, cash has been the only asset that enjoys legal tender status and has played this role. Yet, the way cash is fathomed and embraced nowadays is heavily influenced by the increasing digitalisation of society, and by technological change more generally. For example, the behaviour, preferences and expectations of users are changing rapidly, as their experience with digital technologies grows. Novel payment alternatives, provided  1  either by private players (both traditional and non-traditional ones) or by public authorities in various jurisdictions, may also surface and/or expand, presenting greater appeal than traditional banknotes and coins. Moreover, new features of existing payment instruments or services, such as programmability, are now becoming possible thanks to emerging technologies. Therefore, besides ensuring the availability of cash, we also need to consider new ways of improving the efficiency of retail payments by leveraging digital technology more extensively. All of this could signal the need to broaden the approach and explore new opportunities, aiming to better address modern society’s unmet demands. In this process, the notion of a universally accessible CBDC stands out, that is, a new type of central bank digital liability that could be made widely available.
Banque de France researchiii based on a panel of 22 advanced economies shows that over the 1996-2014 period it has been the main determinant of the slowdown in business investment (negative contribution of 80%). The second lever is confidence or, in other words, the level of uncertainty (17%). Concretely, rules have to become simpler and more stable for entrepreneurs. In France and Spain, we are still far from the best performers in the latest World Bank ‘Doing Business’ ranking: we came in 29th and 32nd respectivelyiv. But alongside the economic levers, financial levers play a role too (slide 9). As Europe’s economy is close to the “technological frontier”, businesses need to innovate more. As such, they need to be able to take more risks, which means more equity financing, rather than debt financing. But Europe is lagging behind: equity capital amounts to only 52% of GDP in the euro area, compared with 121% in the United States. In addition, (slide 10) the cost of equity (CoE) has remained astonishingly high on both sides of the Atlantic – more than 9% for large listed companies in the euro area according to Banque de France calculations – despite the sharp fall in interest rates over the last two decades. This means that the risk premia have increased. The high CoE could prompt companies to give priority to dividends and share buybacks over investment – we have seen this situation occurring in the United-States. So, in practice, what is the way forward?

Let me start with a brief remark about terminology. For a long time, economic thinkers used the term “political economy” to refer to the discipline that we now call “economics”. Adam Smith, David Ricardo or Léon Walras, to name but a few, were some of its exponents. Despite its 400 year-old history, the term “political economy” had in the last decades gradually lost its importance as a comprehensive way of understanding economic issues. And yet it could now be returning to the forefront, given the strong interactions between politics and economics. At the international level, we cannot yet predict what Mr. Trump’s presidency will really be like, but we can expect a deep political shift, with consequences for American economic policies. Besides, the electoral cycle will continue in Europe, starting with the Italian referendum in December. To state the obvious, the first certainty is that we are facing a lot of uncertainty. How will Europe overcome this? I sincerely hope not by “waiting and seeing”, but rather by sticking to and building further on its three shared economic and social assets: its single currency, its single market, and its unique social model. We must actively build on them, and not lazily rest on our laurels: pride should not be confused with complacency. First, with the euro, we share a solid currency which is recognised worldwide. The vast majority of euro area citizens are attached to it (68% according to the latest Eurobarometeri). Moreover, in a world of uncertainty, European monetary policy is a yardstick of stability.
13.12.2019  Session: “Central banks, financial inclusion and digitalization: harnessing technology for inclusive growth” Conference “Financial integration and inclusive development: A view from the Mediterranean Countries”/Banco de España e Instituto del Mediterráneo (IEMed) Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Good morning. It is a privilege for me to chair this panel on the importance of financial inclusion and how digitalisation can contribute to it. It’s all the more a privilege given that the panel includes governors from four countries with broad experience in promoting financial inclusion, where significant initiatives in this area have been launched with the central bank taking the lead. Access to financial services continues to be a primary problem globally. On the latest World Bank estimates, almost 1.7 billion adults do not have access to an account offering basic functionalities and, therefore, they are excluded from basic services such as payments, credit and saving. This has obvious repercussions for economic and social development, as there is a positive correlation both with growth and employment1, and it is thus essential to understand the causes behind it. In this respect, most studies have highlighted the fact that, although there may in specific cases be voluntary factors relating mainly to cultural or religious aspects, the explanation for this lack of access to financial services is usually to be found in involuntary factors.

I am aware that taking the climate and environment into consideration is quite new for the banks, but it is equally so for us. However, adapting to climate change has no alternative. As Bob Brown once said – “The future will either be green or not at all". 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
It is a sobering thought that the interest rate on a 30-year mortgage in Hong Kong is now down to as low as 4.25%, more than 1 percentage point below the yield on a AAA-rated, US Treasury bond. It is no surprise that some banks are losing enthusiasm for the downward spiral in mortgage rates and are standing back. Among other things, this is showing up in an increased appetite for investment in bonds. The fall in lending margins is a classic case of too much money chasing too little demand. The impact is, however, being softened to some extent by the favourable impact of the excess liquidity on deposit margins. Partly as a result, underlying profits seem to have held up reasonably well in the first half of the year despite the difficult operating conditions. We are, however, only part of the way through the reporting season and it will take a bit longer to come up with definitive conclusions about the interim results. As always, some banks have done better than others, and it is worth looking at two of the factors that help to deliver a superior performance. The first of these is skill in asset-liability management. This is necessary to enable banks to widen deposit margins as lending margins shrink. It means, among other things, trying to reduce reliance on high cost deposits, trying to persuade depositors to consolidate deposits with your bank and looking for alternative funding sources, including long-term debt.

BIS Review 71/2001  1  The impact of interest rate deregulation I have tried to show so far how interest rate deregulation fits into the broader industry trends. I will now say a bit more about what the impact of the latest, and final, round of deregulation has been. This involved removing the interest rate cap on Hong Kong dollar savings accounts and allowing interest to be paid on current accounts. It was the end of a process that began in 1994 when we began to deregulate time deposits. Some would say that the process has been unduly protracted. But I think that it was reasonable to be cautious, since experience elsewhere shows that liberalisation is all too often accompanied by instability. As it has turned out, the final stage of deregulation probably could not have happened at a better time – at least from the point of view of protecting the regulator's peace of mind. The ample liquidity in the banking system has reduced the risk of an aggressive price war for deposits, which was the HKMA's principal concern. So we have ended up with a Little Bang rather than a Big Bang. But I should emphasise that less than two months have passed since the interest rate controls were finally lifted. Any conclusions about the impact of deregulation can only be tentative at this stage. Some of what has happened was predicted at the time the decision to deregulate was taken.
Given these challenges and potential shocks to the economy, it is important that as a nation we build resilience and fortify the foundation of the economy. Towards this end, it is critical for us to be able to transform our economy. Less than 50 years ago, the Malaysian economy was primarily based on agriculture and commodities such as tin and rubber. Today, we are a well-diversified nation, with the services, manufacturing, and mining sectors as key growth engines. Most notable, Malaysia has established itself as a key hub for the electrical and electronics (E&E) manufacturing industry, playing an important role in the global supply chain. Looking to the future, we aspire to become an innovation-based and high valueadded economy by leveraging on technology and high skilled talent. Similarly, at individual level, Malaysians must build financial resilience by equipping themselves with the necessary knowledge and tools to manage their finances. This is where you, as practitioners, play a vital role by professionally advising, educating and guiding your clients to ensure they are on the right track to secure a better future for themselves and their loved ones. 1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  A comprehensive and effective financial plan is crucial to help an individual or a family build financial resilience. Financial resilience is critical in a time of economic uncertainty and in a shock-prone world. It provides households with the ability to withstand the negative financial impact in periods of shocks.

Once consumers are sufficiently equipped with the knowledge on using digital financial services responsibly and have a high level of trust in the reliability and security of online services, only then can we reap the full benefits of digitalisation. This ties in with one of Bank Negara Malaysia's aspirations in the Financial Sector Blueprint 2022-2026 under the cluster of "finance for all", which is having diverse choices for consumers, with most preferring digital solutions. We aspire for consumers to benefit from the availability of 'digital first' solutions such as invisible payments, digitalised motor claims and smart contracts. Beyond digitalisation, we aspire for consumers to be confident and capable of taking charge of their finances. Towards this end, we are working together with other ministries and agencies in enhancing consumer protection reforms such as the enactment of the upcoming Consumer Credit Act, the establishment of the Consumer Credit Oversight Board and the streamlining of the regulatory regime for financial advisors and financial planners. The world we live in today is ever-changing and fast evolving. We live in a world where, while life expectancy has increased, health and  3/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  medical risks have also risen. While income is growing, the nature of employment has also change from largely stable income, to more volatile due to the growth in the gig economy as well high tendency for labour mobility. Although technology attempted to keep pace in managing the impact of climate change, climate-related events have also becoming more frequent.
If costs go too high and Hong Kong suffers an absolute loss of competitiveness (as opposed to there merely being shifts in relativities between sectors), then an adjustment process kicks in to restore competitiveness. Since we have a fixed exchange rate, this adjustment occurs through downward pressure on domestic costs and prices. We have seen this process very clearly and effectively at work over the past three years or so; for instance, the loss of competitiveness inflicted on Hong Kong by the currency depreciations elsewhere in the region in 1997 was made good largely through internal deflation within the space of about 18 months. At risk of my labouring the point, look at cities such as London, Paris, Zurich, Tokyo and New York. In absolute terms they are expensive places, but they all generally thrive. The citizens don't hang their heads in shame at being in a high cost and high earning environment. Indeed, many relish it. But none of the businesses there can afford not to search continuously for greater control of costs, for higher productivity, for new products and markets, and so on. Competitive pressure may be intensified by globalisation and by the emergence of significant competition even from third world cities, where basic costs are hugely lower, but the very survival of the wealthy cities has not been seen to be seriously threatened on that score.

Remote communication has not yet displaced human contact completely as the medium for doing business; indeed, face-to-face contact has survived much more extensively than some had predicted; and, to the extent that it is necessary or desirable to get people round a table in order to expedite some project, Hong Kong, because it is small, is one of the easiest places in which to do so. •  A third factor supporting the "can do" culture is the general quality and spread of people who are on tap to help get things done: Hong Kong has a good critical mass of expertise in all areas of financial and related services. Of course, I am not deaf to the difficulties sometimes expressed about finding extra people at a particular time with particular skills, but this is almost inevitable in a growing economy. Even then, some relief is normally available through drawing in temporary resources from outside Hong Kong if the occasion demands. •  Finally I would cite the work ethic. People work for long hours and with much loyalty in Hong Kong. Of course, this is not enough in itself. It is productivity that counts, but that is probably where Hong Kong scores; I don't have the impression that many people are passing the day gazing idly out of the window. The corollary of high productivity is that, as I noted earlier, by international comparison a lot of people here receive high salaries, but they certainly earn them. Otherwise they would not hold onto their jobs.
The repo rate is expected to be increased very slowly – we are “taking our foot of the gas” rather than “applying the brakes” According to our forecast in December, the next interest rate increase is expected during the second half of this year. Thereafter, the forecast indicates that the interest rate will be increased by about 0.5 percentage points per year. From a historical perspective, this is a very slow rate-hike cycle. We can see this in the lefthand figure in Figure 4, which compares with previous periods when the repo rate has been raised. 1 Note that this figure shows the change in the repo rate compared with the initial position, and the horizontal axis indicates the number of days that have passed. The repo rate is expected to have risen by about 1.5 percentage points during the whole forecast period. In the right-hand figure, we see that, in the end of the forecast period, the fourth quarter of 2021, the repo rate is expected only to have reached a level of 1 per cent. 1 See also the article “What usually happens when the repo rate is raised?” in Monetary Policy Report, October 2018. 4 [13]  Figure 4.

Peter Praet: Recent economic developments in the euro area Remarks by Mr Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Febelfin working group of bank economists, Brussels, 16 November 2017. * * * The ECB has introduced several monetary policy measures since June 2014, which have played a crucial role in supporting the economy and have been demonstratively effective in preventing a period of disinflation from slipping into one of outright deflation. More than three years later, the risks of deflation have mostly disappeared due to the effective transmission of our policy measures to the real economy, which is clearly evidenced by a broad-based cyclical recovery with solid momentum. This lays the groundwork for a return of inflation to below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Overall, inflation developments, despite the solid growth, remain subdued. Convergence of inflation towards our aim therefore remains conditional on a substantial degree of monetary policy accommodation. Before focusing more on price dynamics and monetary policy, let me make some observations about the latest economic developments. Real GDP in the euro area has expanded for 18 consecutive quarters, growing by 2.5% year on year during the third quarter of 2017, according to Eurostat – a rate that exceeded our projection at the start of the year. This compares with the latest potential growth estimates for the euro area of just over 1.4%.1 The latest survey data point to a strong fourth quarter.