samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Against the background that I have portrayed in my previous comments, it is clear that central banks have a genuine interest in improving their understanding of how the objectives of financial integration and financial stability, or even macroeconomic stability, interact with each other. I already mentioned that this is an area which is under-researched. Two years ago, the Network on Capital Markets and Financial Integration in Europe identified this gap and decided to include the relationship between financial integration and financial stability in a list of the network’s priority areas, posing a series of stimulating questions aimed at providing some guidance for researchers’ efforts. I think it is useful to recall the five questions posed by the Network: -  First, how can financial regulations be designed so as to be conducive to integration while still ensuring financial stability? -  Secondly, what are the main links between financial integration and contagion? -  Thirdly, what are the mechanisms that can trigger contagion and financial fragility? BIS Review 118/2006  3  -  Fourth, how does competition in the financial services industry affect the ability of the financial system to withstand shocks? -  And finally, how and to what extent do financial crises affect economic activity? As you will have realised, there is an almost perfect correlation between these questions and the main topics of the different papers that make up the excellent and well-balanced programme that the organisers have put together for this Conference.

When all is said and done, the primary objective of a credit rating BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  is to estimate the probability that a borrower will service its debt in full and on time. This probability depends on two factors – the ability to pay and the willingness to pay – which, as history has shown us, are not necessarily one and the same, as could maybe be seen in the examples of Finland and Argentina. Sometimes it seems as though rating agencies exceed their mandate and act as though they are purveyors of some sort of Good Housekeeping seal of approval for economies and governments. For example, one could ask what the Republic of Iceland’s probability of default is, since the country didn’t default during the financial crisis. 1 While it is pointless to debate this fact with them, it actually, seems to me that a number of improvements have taken place in the wake of the crisis. Upon closer examination, much of what rating agencies take into account is clearly related to developments in both ability and willingness to service debt. Among the factors they consider are debt levels and guarantees, GDP growth potential, the size and structure of the economy, and other factors that affect vulnerability to shocks, institutional quality, governance and policy continuity, and political risk. This gives some indication, of course, of which factors are a drag on Iceland’s credit rating at present, and how they could be addressed.
The public sector must be ready to steer and lead the nation onto a new, uncharted path with confidence, certainty and conviction. This is a heavy responsibility. What we do today will have ramifications on the future of our children and our children’s children. We must rethink the way we formulate policies, the way we deliver on our mandates and the way we think about public policy. 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Today, I would like to speak about three possible characteristics that will be necessary for the public sector to navigate the challenges of the future. These are: Integrity, Agility and Validity of Measurement. Integrity: The courage to take the road less travelled As public servants, our duty is to serve and protect the public interest. Our legitimacy is strengthened by their confidence. Discharging this responsibility will become more challenging as we move forward: Priorities and needs will continue to expand faster than our resources. In these times, moral courage, integrity and transparency will be more important than ever. We must be brave enough to pursue the right course of action, doing the right thing, unpopular as they may be in the short-term. We must also be accountable for our decisions. This requires that we engage and communicate with the public as never before, explaining clearly the rationale of our policies. It is also important that we foster a culture and environment that prioritises these values at the level of the individual.

Where others had led, our economy now thrives on high-skilled industries, some on the frontiers of innovation. Looking back, we can take great pride in our achievements as a nation. Looking forward, there are infinite possibilities that await us. But there are challenges that we need to navigate and overcome. I shall mention some of them. First, a challenging global environment. Nearly a decade on from the Global Financial Crisis, the global economy continues to remain relatively weak. World growth is projected to grow an average of 3.5% in the next two years. Amid a mood of economic uncertainty, protectionism, once thought of as an irrelevant concept, has made an unexpected re-entry into the global discourse on international trade. Second, technological progress. The speed at which this is occurring means that our greatest challenge is anticipating the technologies that will have the greatest impact on our lives. As public officials, we need to appreciate how technological progress will influence the way public policies are formulated and communicated. Third, demographic shifts. At present, an estimated 26.3% of our total population is between the ages of 25 to 40 years old. This represents a group of better-educated individuals, used to unfettered access to information. They are likely to have higher expectations on public service. The era of “government knows best” is a past participle. Our engagements must therefore adapt and respond to evolving norms of our society. These are some of the challenges we are facing. The challenges are enormous yet exciting.
First, consistent with the September statement, the FOMC began a new purchase program of $ billion long-dated Treasuries per month. Second, the FOMC shifted to economic thresholds from calendar-based rate guidance. The FOMC committed to keep the federal funds rate at its current level of zero to 25 basis points at least as long as unemployment remains above 6.5 percent, projected inflation on a one to two year horizon is below 2.5 percent and inflation expectations stay well anchored. Both elements of the policy stance were reaffirmed at last week’s FOMC meeting. So why did we make these changes? The additional asset purchases provide further monetary stimulus. This is appropriate given that we were falling short of our objectives.6 Moving to an outcome-based purchase program also has other advantages. In particular, expectations of the ultimate amount of purchases should change as the economic outlook evolves. This acts as an automatic stabilizing mechanism. In particular, the FOMC’s statement that purchases will continue until the labor market outlook improves substantially provides additional support for the recovery by reducing downside tail risk. The shift to rate guidance based on economic thresholds was not intended to provide additional accommodation at the time it was implemented.7 But, the adoption of thresholds does support the recovery by changing the risk profile in a different way. The thresholds  4  In addition to reinvestment of maturing MBS.

All Saudi Banks are on target to implement all 3 Pillars of the Basle II Capital Adequacy by January 2008, using the standardized approach. During the past decade, Saudi banks have made tremendous progress in terms of offering innovative products and services, introducing sophisticated technological delivery channels including ATMs, Internet and Phone Banking. In cooperation with SAMA, banks have set up advanced payment and settlement systems, including Automated Clearing Houses and real time gross value electronic funds transfer systems such as SPAN and SARIE. The introduction of technologically advanced systems has resulted in significantly improving the level and quality of customer service, a reduction in transactional costs and increase in efficiencies and strengthening controls. Regarding the capital market, a number of measures have been taken by the Capital Market Authority to deepen and broaden the market which will enhance its role in the development of the economy. The Capital Market Authority has been issuing licenses for setting up specialized companies devoted exclusively to conducting securities business in the Kingdom. So far, it has issued 70 licenses for the purpose. Our financial system is continuing to develop and grow in strength and sophistication. The insurance sector is being reorganized under the Cooperative Insurance Law of 2003, which has entrusted SAMA with the responsibility of supervising insurance business in the country. At the time of the enactment of the Law, there was only one licensed company namely National Cooperative Company for Insurance (NCCI) operating in the country. Other companies were unlicensed.
How do we solve the Triffin dilemma and what role will Europe play in the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN)? A more international euro will provide increased options to store global liquidity, but the goal will obviously not be to turn the euro into a dominant currency. On the contrary, we  Page 6 sur 7 would aim for reliance on multiple currencies to offer stability to the International Financial System through diversification of risks. Regarding the global safety net, the euro area generated a quantum jump for the regional layer of the GFSN in creating the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). In addition, the euro area countries were instrumental for the strengthening of the IMF resources and the SDR allocation and rechannelling. The weight of the euro in the SDR basket should increase in the future in proportion of the increase of its international use. Finally, the Eurosystem is already providing international liquidity through existing swap lines and repo facilities with other central banks, and stands ready to do more if and when warranted. 2. Invoicing international trade With the EU ranking as the world largest trading block, the euro has ample margin to improve as an international trade invoicing currencyvi. The choice of invoice currency is a complex and largely private phenomenonvii, partly driven by the structure of global value chains, which are being reshuffled.

In this context, the idea of a global currency did not prosper in the academic debates – and even less so in policy discussions. One recent exception stands out, to which I would like to pay a special tribute. In 2010, Michel Camdessus launched the Palais Royal initiative. This initiative sheds light on the shortcomings of the International Financial System, in particular its global governance and an overreliance on a single central currency. The initiative suggested a greater role for SDRs and enhanced cooperation between the World Bank, the IMF and the G20. However, other major projects have in parallel been assigned higher priority for instance the successful creation and development of the euro - or have been dictated by necessity - for instance the strengthening of the global financial safety net (GFSN) induced by the great financial crisis and then the Covid crisis. That said, there have been significant progress such as the increase of IMF resources, the two special drawing rights (SDR) allocations (including the last one of 650 billion USD in 2021) and the creation of the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) on the 1st of May by the IMF, which will help deliver the G20 commitment to rechannelling at least 100 billion USD of this allocation to the countries in need. 2. The dangers of a fragmented financial system But there are dangers ahead. We have to avoid shifting from a dollar-dominated system to a confrontational non-system with, for instance, a dollar world opposed to a renminbi world.
However, our situation is by no means unique, and both the emerging, and more developed economies have felt the effects of what has turned out to be a global recession. The challenges presented to our economy in general and the financial sector in particular, brings to the fore the critical role that the Zambia Institute of Banking & Financial Services is expected to play in equipping young men and women with the much needed capacity to strengthen the financial services industry. We shall no doubt be confronted with such and many more similar challenges as we strive to achieve economic growth and poverty reduction in our country. Ladies and Gentlemen, in order to be well prepared for such trying times ahead, we need to groom our best talents to assume leadership positions in all sectors of the economy especially in the financial sector. To achieve this vital task of nurturing our future leaders, the Government is trying its level best to provide education to all Zambians. However, providing support to education for the benefit of all citizens is never an easy task. It is for this reason that the Government recently classified Education and Health as economic sectors. This entails that private investors are now provided with incentives to invest in the area of Education. This policy is expected to provide the much needed investments in institutions such as the Zambia Institute of Banking and Financial Services. Looking around in this gathering, I see people who are very well connected to private investors.

Caleb M Fundanga: Strengthening the Zambian financial services industry through education Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the Zambia Institute of Banking and Financial Services 8th Graduation Ceremony, Lusaka, 21 February 2009. *  *  *  • The President, Zambia Institute of Banking and Financial Services, Mr. David Chewe; • Distinguished Council members; • The Chairman, Bankers Association of Zambia, Mr Saviour Chibiya; • Chief executives of Banks and Financial institutions present; • Representatives from other Learning institutions; • Distinguished Parents; • Graduates; • Distinguished Invited Guests; • Ladies and gentlemen It is an honour and privilege for me to officiate at this 8th Graduation Ceremony of the Zambia Institute of Banking and financial services. There is nothing more pleasing than witnessing young men and women climbing the ladder of success in life. Mr President, as we speak, our economy is facing numerous challenges emanating from the global financial turmoil. As you are no doubt aware, the crisis has already resulted in a reduction in commodity prices including that of copper our main foreign exchange earner. The Zambian foreign exchange market has also been adversely affected as is reflected in the volatility and weakening of the Kwacha exchange rate in the recent past. The result of all this is lower Government revenues and more expensive imports which would in turn culminate in higher inflation.
Need to address communications  Finally, to successfully address this risk with a unified front, we must develop an approach to enhanced communications around cyber threats and events, and revisit supervisory guidance in this area. Silence and fear of sharing intelligence in this area could be detrimental to efforts to address the vulnerabilities systematically. We know that breaches have occurred and will continue to occur until the industry is better equipped to be ahead of the attackers, not playing catch up. Right now we are interested in learning from these breaches and using intelligence garnered to get ahead of game. There is a lot to think about here. With all this in mind, I will end this part of my remarks with a reminder of what we see as the key components of any solution designed to address cybersecurity. It must: •  Be comprehensive, risk-based and threat-informed;  •  Be a joint effort between public and private sectors;  •  Be flexible enough to evolve as technology advances; –  Automated  –  Scalable  •  Support information sharing;  •  Leverage best practices;  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  •  Include all in the industry – regardless of size or processes (internal systems or external providers); and  •  Delve deeper than one step below the surface. Conclusion We live in an ever-changing environment where speed and agility are of the essence.

To keep overall demand growing – and inflation stable – in the face of trade deficits, they needed to keep short-term interest rates low and domestic spending strong. In the United Kingdom, Bank Rate has averaged just 4 ½% in the past 5 years. In 2003, it was as low as 3 ½%. But even then, the UK had the highest interest rate in the G7. In the United States, the Federal Reserve cut its interest rate to just 1%, and in Japan, experiencing deflation, interest rates were just 0.1%. Those developments were inevitable if the world economy was to continue to grow. But the price was unusually low interest rates – both short and long-term – which were considerably below the levels to which most investors had become accustomed in their working lives. Dissatisfaction with these rates gave birth to the “search for yield”. This desire for higher yields could not be met by traditional investment opportunities. So it led to a demand for innovative, and inevitably riskier, financial instruments and for greater leverage. And the financial sector responded to the challenge by providing ever more sophisticated ways of increasing yields by taking more risk. But some of those new instruments were so opaque  BIS Review 114/2007  1  and complex that investors lost sight of the risks involved. Until, that is, they were brought down to earth with a bump on August 9.
For instance, in the Fortis case, I doubt that Dutch and Belgian ministries would have broken up the bank along national borders, in an instant probably destroying vast economic value. The Icelandic case could also have turned out differently, had there been better cooperation with British and Dutch authorities. With frequent interaction with its foreign counterparts, the inertia of the Icelandic supervisory authority would have been unlikely. I could continue providing examples, but the point is that, in most cases, the outcome would have been very different – and far better. For whatever reasons authorities and ministries have not cooperated across borders, there is no excuse anymore. We need better coordination. And setting up a Cross-Border Stability Group is an important step in the right direction. But, despite all its virtues, cooperation does not always work. Legal barriers, political motives and cultural clashes may all inhibit willingness to cooperate. I therefore believe the new European supervisory structure – currently being considered by the Council and the Parliament – is an important step in the right direction. Among other things, this new structure will include formal European Supervisory Authorities. These authorities will be equipped with a number of tools to use when cooperation fails: they will be able to mediate when supervisory authorities do not agree on supervision and remedies; they will be able to take action when national supervisory authorities neglect community law, and so on.

And this will hopefully help us to avoid the type of situation I described earlier, when we failed to take remedial action to prevent the build up of risk in Swedish banks operating in the Baltic countries. But our Nordic-Baltic Cross-Border Stability Group was not built in a day. We have, in fact, held productive exchanges between our countries for years. One milestone was the NordicBaltic crisis management exercise we ran in 2007. We based this exercise on the scenario of a major crisis in a cross-border Nordic bank. By trying to handle an imaginary crisis using actual banks, and applying the institutional and regulatory structures of the different countries, we learnt many lessons on how to overcome stumbling blocks and clarify the distribution of roles and responsibilities. So what I am trying to say is that establishing a well-functioning cooperation structure takes time. So for those countries that have not done so, I recommend an immediate start. And do not be dissuaded by the fact that it is time-consuming. It is this process – leading to closer cooperation – that builds trust between the authorities involved. And when it comes to crisis management, this trust is the glue that holds everything together. Had we had better cooperation and a reasonable level of trust between the authorities concerned, I am convinced that many of the recent European cross-border banking failures  BIS Review 50/2010  3  would have been handled very differently.
When we had to change to the flexible exchange regime, the exchange rate depreciated to a low point of less than 50% of its pre-crisis value before backing up to above 60. The exchange losses that occurred was, among other things, one of the major factors causing the level of non-performing loans to go up to the peak of 45%. This was almost one out of every two dollars lent out. What stress test can really prepare us for such an event? The second is to have the right infrastructure for the domestic financial markets. This topic includes many things like (a)  having the proper market rules,  (b)  having the legal framework that facilitates the enforcement of creditors’ rights,  (c)  having the laws and procedures to deal with bankruptcy,  (d)  having proper accounting and auditing standards as well as a reliable system of credit information on individual borrowers. BIS Review 52/2002  1  I can still recall that during the 1997 crisis, the inter bank market in Thailand ceased up for fear of counter party failure. But the problem also extended to the system of commercial trade credit between ordinary companies, the sellers and buyers of goods. Today, five years after the event, the system of trade credit still has not regained its full recovery. This problem can be mitigated with the function of credit bureau that reports regularly on payment behavior of commercial firms. Third is to ensure that there exists proper supervision of financial institutions.

Dimitar Bogov: The Needs Analysis Programme for the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia Address by Mr Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the presentation of the Needs Analysis Programme for the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia in the process of accession to the European System of Central Banks and the Eurosystem to the public, Skopje, 22 January 2013. *  *  *  Your Excellency Ambassador Orav, Honorable Director General of the International and European Relations at the ECB, Mr Moss, Ladies and gentlemen, distinguished guests, media representatives, It is my great pleasure and honor to greet you today at the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia for the public presentation of the Needs Analysis Programme for the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia in the process of accession to the European System of Central Banks and the Eurosystem. First, I would like to thank the EU for the financial assistance provided and to express my special gratitude to the EU Delegation in our country for the given support in obtaining the project. Also, I would like to express my gratitude to the ECB for the efforts and readiness to carry out the project with the NBRM and to the national central banks of the Eurosystem involved in the project for their willingness to contribute to its implementation.