samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But change there has to be – if both the regulators and regulated are to re-establish society’s confidence that we can have a dynamic and global financial sector, one that serves the real economy, without generating such painful financial booms and busts. And the process of designing, agreeing and implementing that change is long and complex. I make no apology for this. The financial crisis was not a simple and short-lived episode. Nor can the response be simple or quick. We are now, however, well into that programme of regulatory reform. I want to talk today about some of the key elements of that programme. Elements that are now moving from the stage of discussion and design to the stages of agreement and implementation. And I want to talk particularly about the various initiatives that together bear on what is perhaps the biggest challenge; ensuring that no bank is too big to be allowed to fail. It is pretty obvious now that we went into the crisis with a high risk, highly interconnected banking system that had dangerously thin levels of capital and liquidity. Not only were too many banks too vulnerable to serious stress; the authorities also lacked the tools and the options to deal with failure once it occurred, particularly when dealing with large international banks. So when undercapitalised banks faced failure, when they could not raise sufficient private capital to restore viability, authorities around the world were faced with the same journey of horrors.

This is precisely what happened to both Lloyds Banking Group and Bank of America, which required large public capital injections after they made their acquisitions. If no suitable purchaser could be found, the choice for the authorities was between administration – for all or some of the business – or a taxpayer bailout. In a number of small and middle sized cases it was possible, without unacceptable disruption, to protect insured depositors by drawing on deposit insurance and, in some cases, public funds, while selling some parts of the business to another firm and putting the other parts of the business, including shareholders and subordinated debt, put into administration. Bradford and Bingley was the most notable example of this in the UK. But putting all or part of large institutions – especially large international ones – into administration proved impossible with one, notorious exception. And that exception, Lehmans, proved the rule that large, complex, systemic institutions were truly too big to fail. This should not have been a surprise. There was generally tough talk from regulators before the crisis. And there were some idiosyncratic isolated failures, like BCCI and Barings, which occurred outside a systemic crisis. But as a number of researchers have pointed out, large systemic institutions were able to raise debt on more favourable terms than smaller ones reflecting the perception – which turned out to be generally true – that investors in these institutions were protected by an implicit government guarantee.
These include changes that have heightened competition and which have fostered the emergence of increasingly diverse market participants and organisations. The dramatically changing landscape calls for a new generation of highly-qualified professionals equipped with more comprehensive skills. To support and sustain these developments, the education system must evolve so as to meet these new demands. Against this backdrop, our ability to sustain long-term growth clearly depends on our ability to build, maintain and continuously expand our knowledge base. The key to this process is thus to be able to adapt to the new environment. As Charles Darwin observed "It is not the strongest", "nor the most intelligent that survive" but it is those that are "the most responsive to change." It is this capability that needs to be cultivated to ensure a mobile and agile work force that can adjust and respond to the emerging developments in the changing environment. As graduates today, you embody the hopes of the nation in making the transition towards a knowledge-based economy a reality. In graduating today, you would have achieved an important milestone in your life. This is indeed an important and distinct mark of success for all of you. Not so much because of the degree which you now hold in your hand, but more importantly its promise for your future. Your journey to reach this moment is a testimony of your own individual potential, determination and hard work. BIS Review 3/2006  1  The learning experience, however, needs to go on.

Like yours, our country is based on a high value attributed to the individual and on democracy. Our state is a bottom up - rather than a top down construction. We trust our citizens - who are often called to vote on important matters, including on those relating to taxes. We trust them when they keep their army rifle, with a full round of ammunition, at home. We trust citizens when they file their tax forms, and we trust them when they undertake financial transactions. Sure, there are occasional abuses, and these are prosecuted with determination to the full extent of the law. We do not believe, however, that these cases can be used to justify switching over to a system where big brother breathes down our neck. Swiss people would not comprehend - and indeed they would not support - any initiative aimed at throwing out financial privacy principles simply because some dishonest people have taken advantage of them, any more than they would accept giving up medical secrecy because of a few cases of health insurance fraud. Nor could the Swiss understand - or accept - that the foreign clients of our banks be treated any differently, i.e. without the same amount of due trust and respect. But - and this is important - banking secrecy is not absolute. It is simply not true that Swiss banks maintain secret numbered accounts whose holders are not known to anyone.
Page 3  Given the extraordinarily high inflation we’ve been experiencing in the past couple of years, and the use of “unconventional” policy over the past decade or so, these are important and legitimate questions. That is my excuse, at least, for the inordinate length of this speech (for which I apologise). I have attempted to summarise the main points in this introduction. In some ways the opening question – should we think of monetary effects in terms of prices (interest rates and asset prices) or quantities (monetary aggregates) – draws the contrast between the two a little too starkly. They’re not mutually exclusive. In the so-called “IS-LM” model, through which many people are introduced to macro-economics, a rise in the supply of money does eventually lead to a proportionate rise in consumer prices. It’s just that it operates via interest rates. That’s because, as long as people are free to borrow and lend, demand in these models is fully pinned down by current and (expected) future real interest rates. The expansionary effect of an injection of money therefore relies on its first depressing the yield curve and the stance of policy is fully captured by the prevailing level of interest rates (relative to some underlying, “neutral” level). If this core theory appears to favour prices over quantities then the data too would seem to lean in that direction – or, at least, to caution against too crude an interpretation of the monetary aggregates.

Chart 4: MPC over-predicted demand coming out of the pandemic  Sources: ONS, Bank of England, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank calculations.Chart shows the cumulative percent change in real consumption relative to its level in 2021 Q2. The ‘monetarist’ forecast is based on an error correction model of consumption estimated over 1992-2019 that includes separate terms for liquid assets and illiquid assets in both the long-term relationship and short-term dynamics. It is based on a consumption function set out in Aron et al (2011)  . Second, inflation driven purely by a monetary expansion might be expected to raise all prices equally. That’s very clearly not what’s happened over the past couple of years. As Chart 14 illustrates, there have been huge variations in relative prices – some have risen much faster than others. In 2021, the inflation was most marked in prices of core traded goods. In 2022 the big jumps were in energy and food prices (Chart 15). Page 25  Chart 14: Big shifts in relative prices since the pandemic  Sources: ONS and Bank calculations. Chart 15: Large increase in global prices of durable goods in 2021, then those of energy (especially in Europe) in 2022  Sources: ONS, FRED and Bank calculations. Page 26  Furthermore one can readily identify things that account for this pattern. The pandemic caused a big shift in global consumer demand towards goods (and away from services) while at the same time impairing their supply.
As a national agenda, I would like to propose that this forum debates and considers the feasibility of setting a realistic target date, perhaps by the year 2010, for a full implementation of a national e-payment roadmap that specifically outlines the strategies and realignments of the business processes and operating practices, for the nation to be fully engaged in making the migration a success. Ladies and Gentlemen, Let me now move on to the third key point mentioned earlier on the commercial interfaces, whereby the underlying business models and pricing mechanisms for electronic payments, should take into account the need for an incentive structure that promotes the increased use of e-payments. In recent years, several notable developments in e-payments in Malaysia have taken place. Following its introduction in 2000, the Inter-Bank GIRO system, an electronic credit transfer system, had recorded on annual average increase in transactions of 160% in terms of volume and nearly 200% in terms of value between 2003 and 2004. The credit card is also becoming a popular means of payment card, with the total value and volume of increasing annually by 15 and 20 percent respectively. The growing acceptance of Internet banking as a convenient delivery channel for accessing banking services has translated into a significant growth of Internet banking subscribers, which today comprise two thirds of the total internet subscribers.

Nevertheless, it should be stressed that the need for such a consensus is as great as before, since the reliance on accommodative policies of advanced countries has reduced their urgency for structural reforms and complicated the conduct of policies in emerging market economies. If the current stalemate were allowed to continue, there is a risk that the global recovery would not be sustained and the functioning of the IMS could become disorderly. In this context, the theme for this year’s IMFC Plenary, “Global Challenges, Global Solutions” holds special significance. Fund surveillance 3. We look forward to the upcoming 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR). To avoid duplication, an independent opinion of the gaps in the Fund’s surveillance framework can already be found in the IEO report on the Fund’s performance in the run-up to the crisis. The IEO has identified several weaknesses in the Fund’s culture that impedes effective oversight, such as a silo mentality amongst departments, fear of reprisals that inhibit candid views, and a lack of evenhandedness in the treatment of members. Instead of searching for a new legal framework for surveillance, the Fund should concentrate its efforts on how best to implement the IEO recommendations. While the IEO report focuses on dealing with risks in the financial sector, we wish to highlight that surveillance should also focus on fiscal and/or debt sustainability problems, from which the next crisis could emanate.
The last part of my speech today will focus on the consequences of these trends for our decisions in the management of the Government Pension Fund Global. Global imbalances Let me start with the change in the world’s economic geography and the resulting gains. Strong economic growth in China, India and several other emerging economies has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. African countries have also experienced a growth spurt and the number of people living in extreme poverty has fallen considerably over the past two decades2. This is a continuation of a long-term trend. According to figures from the World Bank, the share of people living on less than USD 1.25 a day decreased from close to 43 per cent in 1980 to just over 21 per cent in 2005. Chart: GDP index 2000 and 2010 The strong growth in the emerging economies can perhaps best be illustrated through a comparison with western economies. If GDP is set at 100 in the year 2000, GDP growth would have reached 112 for the euro area and 118 for the US up to last year. The figure for Brazil is 142 and 271 for China. If the trend continues, China will outgrow the US to become the largest economy in the world in the course of the next 10–20 years. 1  Here, the term emerging economies includes developing economies  2  Pinkovskiy, Maxim and Xavier Sala-i-Martin (2010), “African Poverty is Falling...Much Faster than You Think!”, NBER Working Paper 15775.

In the same period they accounted for 80 per cent of growth in global consumption of agricultural products and virtually all of the increase in global metal consumption. While demand for energy and commodities is rising, there are supply-side constraints. With regard to oil, the large and easily accessible deposits were extracted first, and new finds are smaller and more expensive to extract. The same applies to a number of metals. Investment  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  in the energy and commodity sector has also been low. Energy prices have risen fairly markedly over a lengthy period, with some temporary disturbances. Agriculture is facing some of the same challenges. Productivity growth in this sector has declined in recent years. In order to increase production, farmers have had to use less fertile land and the costs of food production have risen. Agricultural production has also become more energy-intensive and energy and food prices have become more closely linked. Energy now accounts for a third of the cost of grain production. In addition, with high oil prices, demand has shifted towards biofuels, with inputs such as maize and sugar. In 2010, 40 per cent of maize production in the US was used to produce biofuel. A large share of sugar production in Brazil is used for the same purpose. As we have seen in recent years, the rise in energy prices is spreading to food prices4.
Slower growth of world activity is bound to prolong the restraining external effect on growth and inflation in the UK, even though the exchange rate has now started to weaken. At the same time there are also now clearer signs of overall slowdown in our own economy. The evidence for this is less obvious in the backwards-looking economic and monetary data than it is in the forward-looking surveys, but even so the data suggest that we are beginning to see an easing of pressure, including an easing of pressure in the labour market. And the surveys themselves now point to a slowdown in service sector growth, including retail distribution, as well as a sharper decline in manufacturing output. This prospect is consistent with the reports which we receive directly from the Bank’s network of regional agents and their 7000-odd industrial and commercial contacts around the country. Of course we pay very careful attention to this forward-looking evidence of developments in the economy alongside the data, and, like others, we have revised down our forecasts for output growth and inflation. And we have eased monetary policy quite sharply in the past two months, in the light of that evidence. Our current best guess - published in last week’s Inflation Report is that, after the interest rate cuts, the growth of overall output next year will be around 1%, picking up through the Millennium to around trend in the second half of the year 2000.

Sheku Sambadeen Sesay: Issues relating to Africa in the context of the global financial and economic crisis Statement by Mr Sheku Sambadeen Sesay, Governor of the Bank of Sierra Leone, at the dinner in honour of the delegates for the African Caucus Meeting, hosted by the Bank of Sierra Leone, Freetown, 16 August 2010. *  *  *  Ministers of Finance Governors of central banks Head of delegations Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen On behalf of the President of the Republic of Sierra Leone, Dr. Ernest Bai Koroma and the Board and Directors of the Bank of Sierra Leone, it is my profound pleasure to extend a warm welcome to all distinguished personalities assembled here this evening. I believe that since your arrival here in Freetown you have had a taste of the typical African hospitality which is very true of the people of Freetown. As you are aware this is my first meeting since my appointment as Governor of the Bank of Sierra Leone in June this year. Our meeting is taking place at a critical period. Our countries are experiencing the effects of the slow down in the world economy triggered by the global financial crisis. As we are all aware this recent challenge far exceeds the capabilities of any single country. These challenges require international coordinations and inter-governmental collaboration which makes it imperative for us to work together.
Even more, again the usage of granular, micro data on individual financial institutions was a weak link, precluding the identification of potential interlinkages and contagion effects needed for the macro prudential analysis. The exploration of micro data on the borrowers was also a missing element, which at certain point could be an important tool for assessing the potential risks to financial stability and stability of the economy in general. The G20 Data Gap Initiative is probably one of the most systematic approaches, which could provide a general stocktaking and monitoring of the progress in terms of the “missing data” for financial stability purposes. The build-up of risks in the financial sector was an area, where the crisis pinpointed the need to create or enhance the data coverage. It was acknowledged that more efforts are needed in the area of capturing enough wide spectrum of indicators for location of leverage or excessive-risk taking, in the unregulated part in particular (“the shadow system”), but also liquidity, credit and tail risks within the regulated sector. An attention was also drawn to the need for the countries to produce soft data on lending standards, by running lending surveys, and to factor in, in the analysis, not only the aggregate figure and averages, but also ranges and distribution of the data. Being more specific, a special focus was put on the Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs), which encompass several dimensions of potential risk for the financial stability.

To me, Raeburn’s work provides a fitting visual metaphor for the ideal countenance of a central banker: The Reverend Walker skating forward confidently and with grace upon a notably uneven, rocky surface on an icy, dark, blustery day. An alternative depiction is Edvard Munch’s The Scream from Norway’s Gunderson Collection, now on temporary exhibit at the National Gallery. (There are four versions of this pastel, one of which recently sold for $ million at auction at Sotheby’s. If you haven’t been into Edinburgh to see the Gunderson version, I am sure you read about Sotheby’s record-setting auction.) 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  In sharp contrast to Raeburn’s painting of composure, The Scream depicts a panicked form. In an autobiographical epigraph, Munch wrote that he conceived of the painting after a period of exhaustion and despair: “I stopped and leaned against the balustrade, almost dead with fatigue. Above the blue-black fjord hung the clouds, red as blood and tongues of fire. My friends had left me, and alone, trembling with anguish, I became aware of the vast, infinite cry of nature”.1  I am going to conclude by suggesting that the image that best behooves central bankers as guardians of financial stability and agents of economic potential is that of Henry Raeburn’s Reverend Walker. To be sure, central bankers everywhere are fatigued and exhausted and increasingly friendless.
Dear ladies and gentlemen, Safe and efficient fulfilment of the economy’s need for money, in terms of value and structure, and guaranteeing the confidence of the public in our currency, which is one of our main responsibilities, have been at the core of our efforts in preparing this new series. Therefore, I am very honoured to unveil today, for the first time, for the eyes of the public, this new series of banknotes. As the Governor of the Bank of Albania, through this symbolic signing, I open the doors for the first two banknotes of the new series to start their journey and circulate in the Albanian economy. In the hope that the new banknotes will be welcomed by the public, let me now present to you their design. I would also like to call on the public to handle banknotes with due care, in order to preserve their durability, quality and integrity. From 30 September 2019, the banknotes of the new series 200 lek and 5000 lek will be legal tender in the Republic of Albania and will be used as means of payment, alongside the existing banknotes. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches

Ladies and Gentlemen, the financial turmoil facing the world today has affected all of us and we as regulators are trying to ensure stability in the financial markets. In this regard, the Bank of Zambia has put in place measures to moderate the impact of the global meltdown on the Zambian financial system. The Government also remains resolved to continue with prudent fiscal policies and economic management, which have seen a buoyant financial sector in Zambia, thereby resulting in the mushrooming of branches in different locations of the country, such as the one we are inaugurating today. In spite of the uncertainties in the global economy, Distinguished Guests, we remain confident that the financial sector in Zambia will rise above the challenge and continue to provide services to the communities where they operate. Ladies and Gentlemen, I have stated at various fora that it is important for banks in Zambia to take actions which support the development of our economy: •  Banks need to open more outlets such as this one, to increase our people’s access to banking services, thereby empowering our citizens  •  Banks should provide more loans to the productive sector, such as Agriculture and SMEs. In striving to meet these demands, banks must always comply with the regulations as stipulated in the Banking and Financial Services Act to ensure the safety of customers’ deposits. I am proud of the stability that has been exhibited by our economy.