samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But, in addition to looking back, I would like to take this opportunity to map out some fundamental elements that should be part of the future risk management framework, once we have returned to a more conventional monetary policy environment. Of course, these are largely informed by some of the actions we took over the past decade and founded on the principles I have just described. So while we are clearly not in a position to move to this new steady state in one go, its broad features can already be seen today. Navigating through gusts, storms and crosswinds Risk managers, including central bank risk managers, are generally prudent. Such prudence is not only necessary to preserve market confidence in the central bank’s independence and ability to comply with its mandate, it is also appropriate since we are entrusted with public money. In a 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  crisis, however, the central bank’s exposure to financial risks can – and may indeed have to – increase, because it is still expected to fulfil its policy mandate. The non-conventional measures that we implemented were necessary and proportionate to achieve our mandate; they have also contributed to financial stability by reducing financial risks in the euro area. There are, of course, limits to the actions of central banks, as monetary policy cannot address structural or fiscal sources of financial distress, nor can it step in to rectify national deficiencies as our mandate applies to the euro area as a whole.

According to 2009 figures, labor force participation rate in developed economies is above 70 percent. This rate is hovering at around 60 percent in Eastern European countries. Although the labor force participation rate has surged by 3 percentage points in Turkey, it still remains low, at 49 percent. We see that the limited increase in this period was mostly attributable to the rising trend of labor force participation among the female population. Government incentives for social security contributions oriented towards newly recruited women and young people, which have been in place since 2009, are very influential in this development. Nevertheless, at 28 percent, the female labor force participation rate in Turkey is very low compared to European countries. While the labor force participation among females with a university degree converges towards the EU average, with a ratio of 71 percent, only 23 in every 100 women with a high school or lower education participate in the labor market. Regulations to be implemented in the labor market in the forthcoming period will contribute to sustainable growth and an increase in employment on a permanent basis. Within this scope, it is essential that:   Flexibility of the labor market should be increased,    Competition within the private sector is promoted,    Pay-roll taxes are reduced, and    Necessary policies for establishing an educated and qualified labor force, which will accommodate private sector requirements, are followed.
1 Includes Southeast Asia, Greater China, India, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan 2 “Asia-Pacific Private Equity Report 2019”; Bain & Company 3 “Southeast Asia PE & VC: Investment Activity May 2018”, SVCA 4 “World Population Prospects 2019”; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs  7/7  BIS central bankers' speeches

Banks are of course already used to dealing with at least some of the issues that crop up in an electronic banking environment, and so have built up experience and expertise to deal with these. However, I do believe that the internet, because of its low cost, global reach and versatility raises the stakes for the banks – both in terms of the opportunities it presents as well as the risks. Strategic risk In talking about these risks, let me start at the top – with the issue of strategic risk. In other words, will the bank get it right? Will it make the right choices when it comes to investing in e-banking or will it waste money by going down a technological blind alley? Should it attempt to take the lead in new technology ahead of its competitors, or should it be a follower and adopt a “wait and see” approach? The latter may be the safer course of action for smaller banks, though it does create the risk of being left behind. The advantages of e-banking, and internet banking in particular, are quite clear – the ability, for example, to disseminate information widely and instantaneously at low cost and to cross-sell products in a much more effective way. But there are also strategic threats. The cheapness and global reach of the internet opens up the threat of increased competition from new entrants who will no longer need a branch network to operate effectively in any given market.
In the model, the central bank therefore raises its policy rate to curb the rise in inflation and gradually bring it down. The tighter monetary stance, which in this model is represented by an increase in the real interest rate, results in a negative output gap. [10] The extent to which monetary policy should be tightened to achieve a reasonable trade-off depends on the impact of higher prices and costs on consumption and investment. In most New Keynesian models, a cost shock does not affect demand directly. This is because temporary disturbances have little impact on households’ permanent income and because households and firms can borrow and save freely in these models. In practice, however, many households have small financial buffers and limited borrowing capacity. A decline in purchasing power due to a higher interest rate and higher prices will compel these households to reduce consumption. In addition, higher costs can reduce firms’ profits and thereby business investment. Chart: Costs shock – monetary policy trade-offs These effects of a cost shock can be illustrated in a model with different types of households – a so-called TANK model. [11] The model assumes that there are two types of households. One group can spread the effect of a decline in real disposable income on consumption over time, that is to say they can smooth consumption. The other group, called hand-to-mouth households, spends all its disposable income in each period. The cost shock hits the hand-to-mouth households relatively hard, and aggregate demand falls.

A smaller rate increase is then needed to stabilise the economy than if the cost shock had only affected inflation. In the model exercises, it is assumed that the hand-to-mouth households do not have debt, but if we had introduced debt for this group, an interest rate increase would have reduced disposable income to a further extent. In most New Keynesian models, monetary policy primarily works  through the real interest rate, which is also the case in the model simulations I have shown. But, in practice, the nominal interest rate probably has a greater effect than the real interest rate on the cash flow of indebted households, at least in the short run. Chart: Decomposition of main drivers behind rate path When we make forecasts for the purpose of interest rate setting, we incorporate that an increase in prices and costs influences household real disposable income and firms’ profits. [12] We also incorporate that the effect of interest rate changes has likely increased over time due to higher debt ratios. We also assume that both real and nominal interest rates have a bearing on demand. The decomposition chart in our Monetary Policy Report shows the contribution from different types of shocks to changes in the policy rate path from the previous Report. In the latest Report, the decomposition showed a negative contribution from demand, represented by the dark blue bars. These negative contributions reflect, among other things, the fact that we take into consideration many other conditions than those included in the simplest models.
He believed “the policy was the one and only policy which ultimately would place the City and the country again on that eminence which it occupied before the war”. Such was his confidence that Norman mentioned only once, in passing, that “the policy” in question was to “attempt to regain the gold standard”, and he spent no time at all explaining what, apart from normalcy, would be achieved by it. Of course, this return to past certainties would eventually plunge the country into deflation and a deep recession. The old policy was not suited to the new normal and the UK was forced to abandon it a few years later. After all, what is normal when there are tectonic shifts? This dinner may look traditional, but its attendees have always recognised that the most longstanding and revered tradition of the City is its ability to anticipate, adapt to and accelerate change for the common good. That is why the UK’s financial system remains both a national asset and a global public good. Domestically, there are over 1 million financial services jobs, two-thirds outside London. Financial services run a trade surplus of 3% of GDP, while the rest of the economy runs a deficit almost twice as large. Last year, the UK financial system channelled £ billion in finance to UK businesses and helped 700,000 households to purchase homes. It provides pensions to 21 million people and insures the contents of 20 million homes.

3 See article 127 of the TFEU: “Without prejudice to the objective of price stability, the ESCB shall support the  general economic policies in the Union with a view to contributing to the achievement of the objectives of the Union as laid down in Article 3 of the Treaty on European Union”. These objectives include “the sustainable development of Europe“ and “a high level of protection and improvement of the quality of the environment”. 4 Princess Mononoke film (1997). 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
And, neither bankers nor traders have a monopoly on this capacity -- corporate treasurers and institutional investors can pull up most of the same screens we can. At one time, a presence in a local market and access to early newspapers could provide a trading advantage for a large market maker. Today, news from that market is available electronically worldwide with almost no lag. Information is cheaper and easier to come by than ever before. The result? A global market that reacts quickly and efficiently to new data, and participants who have more time to analyze information because they need to spend less time gathering it. One consequence of this improved transparency in information technology is that information gets reflected in asset prices more quickly and more smoothly than ever before. A closely related development that has also contributed to increased transparency in the foreign exchange market has been the rapid evolution of the price discovery process in the past several years. Electronic brokerage and electronic interbank dealing systems have evolved that have smoothed the dissemination of current pricing and improved market liquidity. Whereas truly competitive pricing was once the province of only the largest market makers, smaller interbank dealers -- and even some foreign exchange end-users -- now also have access to narrow bid-ask spreads. The result so far has been a deeper market and, again, a more level playing field for all market participants, with pricing no longer dominated by a few large players.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has also been deeply involved in efforts to reduce foreign exchange settlement risk -- efforts that should further serve to improve market efficiency and overall financial stability. In October 1994, the New York Fed-sponsored Foreign Exchange Committee issued a major report on “Reducing Foreign Exchange Settlement Risk.” The Bank has also been working actively in this area with other central banks through the G-10 central bank Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems, or CPSS, which I have had the pleasure to chair in recent years. Building upon the work of the New York Foreign Exchange Committee, the CPSS published a document in March of last year, often referred to as the Allsopp report, that contains a comprehensive strategy outlining how the public and private sectors can work together to reduce foreign exchange settlement risk. The strategy was endorsed by the G-10 central bank governors and calls for specific action on the part of individual banks and industry groups. A survey conducted by the CPSS last autumn indicates that individual banks are answering the G-10 governors’ call for action. Many banks have made a good start in improving their ability to measure, manage, control, and net their bilateral settlement exposures, and they plan to push these efforts even further over the next year. While this is a very encouraging beginning, we can’t ignore the fact that more work must be done by individual banks.
rates based on a sufficiently large number of transactions. The Libor administrator, ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA), reacted to the FSB report by announcing further improvements to ensure that the Libor rates would become better established through the use of actual transactions. Such actual transactions will be used either directly, for calculating the Libor rates, or indirectly, for underpinning the contributions. In this context, the inclusion of short-term loans to large customers or money market instruments, in addition to interbank market transactions, is being examined as a future possibility. In order to assess the FSB proposals, surveys are being conducted to collect data in the currency areas concerned. The SNB conducted such a survey at the beginning of summer for Switzerland, collecting data on bank transactions on the interbank market and with large customers, as well as on trade in money market instruments. More than 50 domestic and foreign banks took part in the survey. The results confirmed that the small number of actual transactions on the money market currently constitutes a problem for the creation of robust benchmark interest rates. Consequently, it seems improbable that a pure transactions-based approach could be implemented for the Swiss franc. This is also the case if other transaction types and additional instruments are taken into account. For this reason, the Swiss franc Libor will continue to be based mainly on contributions by participating banks. 1  2  IOSCO is the International Organization of Securities Commissions.

Since the end of June, the trade-weighted US dollar has risen by nearly 10%. By contrast, the trade-weighted euro has lost over 3.5%, while the yen has lost almost 12% of its value. Chart 2 shows that, since the middle of the year, the strength of the US dollar has also made itself felt with respect to the Swiss franc. However, the chart also shows that the Swiss franc has become stronger against the euro over the past few months. It is likely that this is mainly due to two factors. On the one hand, the disappointing path of the euro area economy, and the further easing in monetary policy associated with this, have been responsible for a weakening in the euro. On the other, the pressure on the Swiss franc has reflected the strong demand for safe investments, particularly in periods of increased geopolitical tension. Since  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  mid-year, the trade-weighted Swiss franc exchange rate has barely changed overall. Thus, the Swiss franc is still high. Reform efforts in the area of interest rate and foreign exchange benchmarks This brings me to the progress that has been made in reforming interest rate and foreign exchange benchmarks. In recent years, revelations of manipulations have undermined the credibility of these benchmarks. At international level, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) is coordinating the reform efforts. At the same time, country-specific reforms are being implemented at national level.
Without the measures taken by the Riksbank and other authorities the financial system would have ceased functioning and would still not be functioning. The same applies of course in many other countries. As we note in the Financial Stability Report that we published just over one week ago, these measures have contributed to ensuring that there is no imminent risk of a liquidity shortage for the banks. Interbank rates have fallen, although it still appears difficult to find funding at longer maturities. There are also other signs that the conditions on the international credit markets have eased somewhat and it appears to have become slightly easier to obtain funding by issuing securities, even when these are not backed by a government guarantee. Now it is unfortunately not the case that the problems are over – we are not yet on solid ground with regard to financial stability. There is still a lack of confidence between financial institutions and the international credit markets are fairly far from functioning as they did before the crisis. The situation is still sensitive and there is still a risk of a surprisingly negative shock giving the crisis new energy and once again making it more difficult for the banks to obtain funding. The Riksbank will of course follow developments very closely. We will continue to supply the banks with liquidity and we are prepared to do so as long as necessary. But to summarise briefly, the situation does look somewhat brighter with regard to liquidity risk.

I first made reference to the New Silk Road at the 2nd World Islamic Economic Forum (WIEF) on "Unleashing the Potential of Emerging Markets" in Islamabad, Pakistan in November 2006. It is my pleasure today to share some thoughts on the potential role of Islamic finance in strengthening the New Silk Road. My remarks will focus on four areas that is the emergence of the New Silk Road; how the linkages on the New Silk Road have built on the comparative advantages of Asia and the Middle East; how Islamic finance is able to foster the linkages along the New Silk Road; and finally, how we can extend the New Silk Road to the rest of the world to advance global economic stability and prosperity. The emergence of a New Silk Road Today, signs that a New Silk Road is flourishing are abundant. The economic and financial linkages between Asia and the Middle East are growing. While the world trade has on the average expanded by 10% over the period 2001-2005, Asia's trade with the Middle East has increased on the average by 24%. More than half of the exports from the Gulf states 1 goes to Asia and more than one-fifth of its imports are from Asia. The Gulf is the major supplier of fuel to Asia, while Asia in turn supplies manufactured goods and food to the Gulf. Recent trends in investment activities have been equally significant.
Given the improved economic performance, it has become necessary to re-align and configure our currency in line with macroeconomic fundamentals. The currency rebasing exercise will have implications on businesses in the economy including changes to accounting software, tax aspects, ATMs, cash registers, etc. The success of the currency rebasing exercise will largely depend on our partnership with the commercial banks. Ladies and gentlemen, as you will note all these measures are aimed at improving efficiency conduct of business in our economy and commercial banks have a very crucial role to play in all these. The expectation is that all of you represented here will support the central bank to ensure that collectively, we build a financial sector that is modern and responsive to the needs of our economy. Chairperson, as a central bank, we will continue to foster an environment where dialogue between all key stakeholders can be promoted both at individual bank level as well as at Industry level. Despite the policy changes embarked on, there remains a lot to be done in the areas of financial inclusion, financial education and consumer protection in the banking  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  industry. In this regard, the Bank of Zambia has developed branchless banking frameworks and a national strategy for financial education in partnership with other stakeholders. As a regulator, we are committed to ensure an open and competitive banking environment.

Tukiya Kankasa-Mabula: Bank of Zambia’s key policy initiatives Speech by Dr Tukiya Kankasa-Mabula, Deputy Governor (Administration) of the Bank of Zambia, at the Bankers Association of Zambia Bankers Annual Ball, Lusaka, 14 September 2012. *  *  *  •  The Chairperson, Bankers Association of Zambia, Mr Friday Ndhlovu,  •  Managing Directors and Chief Executive Officers of Member Banks,  •  Managing Directors & Associations,  •  Management and Staff of Member Banks,  •  Distinguished Invited Guests,  •  Members of the Press,  •  Ladies and Gentlemen. and  Chief  Executive  Officers  of  Various  Institutions  Good evening, Before I deliver my speech this evening, I would like us to observe a minute of silence in honour of the Late Mrs Margaret Ndhlovu, wife of Mr Friday Ndhlovu who passed on late last month. As the saying goes, behind every successful man, there is a woman. Our prayers and thoughts go out to the Ndhlovu family as they come to terms with the loss. Distinguished invited guests, it is my honour and privilege to officiate at this year’s Bankers Annual Ball for the Bankers Association of Zambia. It is also my pleasure to warmly welcome Mr Friday Ndhlovu, the Managing Director of Investrust Bank Plc and the In-coming Chairperson of the Association who is taking over from Ms Charity Lumpa who will be assuming a new role within the Ecobank Group in Lome, Togo.