samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Over the last 15 years, the national agreements have largely entailed wage levels that have been very compatible with low and stable inflation and the positive development of production and employment. The collective bargaining rounds have begun in good time before the expiry of the old agreements. The sector that is exposed to international competition has normally come to an agreement first and has thus set the norm for other parts of the economy. The agreements have usually run over three years. They no longer contain flexibility clauses that lead to wages and prices chasing one another in an upward spiral. At the same time, wage formation within the national frameworks has provided scope for considerable variations between companies and individuals. The number of labour market conflicts has been lower than before. BIS Review 154/2008  3  The fact that wage formation has worked relatively well over the last 15 years has also made it possible for Sweden to maintain, or even increase, its international competitiveness since we stopped pegging the krona to the ecu in November 1992. One difference compared to previous episodes is that, since 1993, unit labour costs in Sweden have increased at the same rate as in Germany. This is an important explanation of the similar development of inflation in the two countries. The nominal exchange rate has been strikingly stable up to the point when the financial crisis worsened in September.

The investments necessary are long-term and the fixes, in many cases, will take multiple years to execute. A number of firms have sound programs in place to address these longstanding issues, but continued strong project management and tenacity are crucial. I see commitment to this basic “blocking and tackling” as essential to financial institutions continuing to be competitive – and relevant – in the digital world. And that’s the third dimension that concerns me: the competitive landscape for financial institutions in the digital world. As more and more non-financial entities are entering the financial arena, I worry that financial firms may lack the agility and ability to compete at the level that they need to – particularly with the added complexities (and likely constraints) of regulation. At the end of the day, will financial firms be able to compete in the same way – or will these largely unregulated players be the future of our financial system? 2. Culture  My final topic today is culture – a complex topic that we all know it is an important one. Before I get into this in detail, I want to stress that “culture” is very different from “risk culture.” You can have a strong risk culture within your firm, but still have cultural issues. The culture I am talking about today is broader and deeper. There seems to be a general acceptance that there needs to be changes to the overall culture in the financial services industry, as well as improvements to cultures within individual firms.
But the ECB is responsible for withdrawing the € note. We have direct responsibility for this because of course we print the banknote. The ECB’s Governing Council is currently considering very carefully the question of whether or not to withdraw the € note. We hear from the competent authorities that the € note is increasingly being used to finance terrorism and launder money. We take this warning very seriously in the Governing Council. What is your personal view? Personally I think that we now have fewer reasons for keeping the € note than we did when the euro was first introduced, because electronic payments have become much more important. We have been told that the banknote is increasingly being used for criminal activities. That’s why I believe that the € banknote will eventually be withdrawn, but it has to be done carefully. Let me emphasise that this does not mean that we should do away with cash in general. Cash is crucial in our everyday lives. So even if the € note no longer exists, people will still be able to use all of the other banknotes. Given the high importance of cash for the citizens, there is no discussion whatsoever about getting rid of it in general. Greece is under strain from the thousands of refugees who arrive on its shores each day, and it is also going through a severe crisis at the same time. Is the refugee crisis weighing on Greece’s recovery?

Do governments have to do more to protect savers from losses in the value of their assets, for instance by cutting taxes? Our advice to euro area governments is to use the savings gained from the lower cost of debt refinancing in a growth-friendly way to help their citizens. They could, for example, reduce taxes on labour, create more incentives for private investment, or reduce their deficits where required. In many euro area countries the investment climate is too unfavourable. Does the ECB need to become even more expansionary in order to prevent deflation? This depends a lot on global developments. If necessary, we stand ready to use all of the instruments at our disposal. That includes the key interest rates and the size, composition and duration of our securities purchases. We will take a decision on this in March. How will the ECB ever manage to move away again from its expansionary monetary policy? Technically speaking, it’s not hard to do. The US central bank is currently demonstrating how it’s done. What is more important is that our environment – and by that I mean government policies – should support us sufficiently in generating more growth. If this does not happen, we will have to keep rates low for a very long time. So it’s not just up to us whether the low interest rate phase can be brought to an end, it also depends on the pace of reform in euro area countries.
In fact, it cannot be ruled out that banks will step up the growth of the most profitable portfolios, which are precisely those the authorities are trying to moderate, to the detriment of the rest, in order to safeguard aggregate profitability. To achieve the objective of exclusively moderating the growth of the exhuberant portfolios, it would be necessary to act on the relative costs of financing, making these more expensive in relative terms, through the activation of a countercyclical capital buffer to be applied exclusively on those credit segments. However, the coexistence between both tools can be complex, especially if a  8/11  transition from one or several sectorial buffers to the total buffer must be made. Accordingly, its use should be confined to very specific circumstances. Another example is the use of capital instruments vs borrower-based tools. From my perspective, making all prudential supervision rely upon the amount of capital that entities need is too reductionist: the experience accumulated during the last financial crisis clearly shows how credit underwriting standards are a crucial element for the stability of the banking system. And this same evidence4 also shows that the analysis of credit standards must be multidimensional. Therefore, it is not enough to supervise and control a specific characteristic of the loan; rather, a comprehensive approach must be adopted in which the different dimensions are addressed. This would also prevent entities from eluding restrictions by adjusting some other dimension of the loan.

Let me now conclude by stressing that, in this context in which a homogenous framework and experience in the use of macroprudential tools is lacking, having  5  For international attempts to follow a cross-sectoral approach on residential mortgage underwriting see, however, the FSB Principles for Sound Residential Mortgage Underwriting Practices (April 2012), the FSB Thematic Review of Mortgage Underwriting and Origination Practices (March 2011) and the Joint Forum Review of the Differentiated Nature and Scope of Financial Regulation – Chapter 3 on Mortgage Origination – (January 2010). 10/11  adequate communication is crucial. From my point of view, this is a critical element of the whole process. Even before that, macroprudential policy-makers must be very careful to prevent the identification of risks from becoming a selffulfilling prophecy. And when deciding to activate any tool, it is necessary to convince stakeholders with arguments and evidence that, even if there are apparent short-term costs, the medium and long-term benefits are clearly greater. Obviously, this implies an in-depth ex-ante impact assessment analysis including all the different options and a general equilibrium approach, and also an ex-post impact assessment analysis to test the efficiency of the selected tools. And now, let me give the floor to our first keynote speaker, Agustín Carstens, who we all know so well. Dr. Carstens is currently General Manager of the BIS, but in the past he was governor of the Bank of Mexico, vice minister of finance also in Mexico and vice president of the IMF.
A growth-consistent fiscal strategy entails making binding commitments now that will deliver medium-term fiscal savings rather than achieve immediate deficit reduction. Tax and pension reforms are good examples. 23. Composition matters even more. Consolidation should focus on broadening tax bases and cutting non-productive entitlement spending. Programmes that underpin future growth – for example, infrastructure, education, and worker retraining – should not be cut sharply. It is not just the macroeconomics of fiscal policy that matters but the microeconomics as well. Unwinding unconventional monetary policies 24. The unprecedented crisis of 2008/2009 evoked an unprecedented response from fiscal and monetary policy-makers around the world. This decisive response helped avert a global depression. But five years after the emergency resuscitation measures, monetary policy settings in the advanced economies are still in “crisis mode”. Interest rates are close to zero and central bank balance sheets have seen a relentless expansion. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  25. Nearly every major central bank in the advanced world is buying non-traditional assets to resurrect its domestic economy. •  The US Fed is buying mortgage-backed securities. Its balance sheet has more than tripled to $ trillion, or 19% of GDP. •  The ECB has made long-tenured loans to banks through its LTRO programme and is prepared to buy sovereign bonds through its OMT programme. The Eurosystem’s balance sheet has more than doubled to € trillion, or 31% of GDP. •  The Bank of Japan is buying government bonds, but has also purchased corporate bonds and real estate investment funds.

Ravi Menon: The global economy – securing a return to normalcy Keynote address by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Citibank 10th Annual Asia-Pacific Investor Conference, Singapore, 30 January 2013. *  *  *  Mr Stephen Bird, Asia Pacific CEO, Citigroup, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. The long shadow of the financial crisis 1. The global economy is stuck in a hesitant and uneven recovery. In a way, we should not be surprised. The seminal work by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff suggests that exits from severe financial crisis take at least a decade. By this metric, we have already passed the mid-way point of the healing process. But the experience of countries emerging from the long shadow of the 2008/2009 financial crisis has been different. US: steady deleveraging plagued by fiscal uncertainty 2. The US economy has already exceeded its pre-crisis peak. This is encouraging, considering that the recent recession was the deepest the country had experienced since the Great Depression. •  Fiscal and monetary stimuli have been decisive, putting the US on a stronger recovery compared with Europe. •  Private sector deleveraging has proceeded steadily. Household debt has come down to 113% of disposable incomes in Q3 2012, from 134% in Q3 2007. •  The biggest drag on the economy – the housing market – is turning around. House prices have been rising steadily since February 2012 and new houses are being built at a healthy pace. 3.
12  10  11  Source: Reuters EcoWin  BIS Review 56/2010  Unit labour costs compared to the euro area Percentage points 35  35  Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain Germany  30 25 20 15  30 25 20 15  10  10  5  5  0  0  -5  -5  -10  -10  -15  -15  -20  -20 00  02  04  06  08  10  Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast  Source: OECD  Current account deficits Percentage of GDP 6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4  -6  -6  -8  Portugal  -8  -10  Ireland  -10  -12  Italy  -12  Greece  -14  -14  Spain  -16  -16 90  92  94  96  98  Note.

But the crisis has left an important legacy: •  Money and financial markets remain excessively segmented. The monetary transmission mechanism is severely impaired and credit conditions are still very different across countries and sectors. •  Deleveraging in the banking sector still acts as an impediment to recovery and growth. Bank credit remains flat in the euro area as a whole, and SMEs’ financing is a major concern, especially in stressed countries, where the percentage of financially constrained but viable borrowers is estimated at 25% vs 1% in “core” countries. We are very aware that balance sheet repair is a prerequisite for credit to resume and for monetary policy to be efficient. So, we are addressing the problem as a priority. 1. We are building a safer and more robust system of financial intermediation. A major step has been the creation of a banking union that, as you all know, will delink bank and sovereign risks and ensure a harmonised and tough financial supervision. It is easy to underestimate this achievement. The idea was adopted less than two years ago. The Single Supervisory Mechanism is now up and running. There is no example in contemporary European history when so much has been achieved in so little time. 2. We have launched a tough and comprehensive AQR and subsequent stress tests that should be completed by the end of this year.
Without finance, terrorism cannot progress. So, steps taken by countries to ensure that the funding lines to terrorism and money laundering are cut off, that terror financing transactions are interrupted or stopped, and that there is worldwide co-operation to track down persons who are suspected of being involved in terror financing in whatever way, is of vital importance. Just take a small example. If at the end of the month, you do not receive your salary, you will find it difficult to comfortably progress with your next month’s activities. In the same way, if we can stop the funds going to terrorist activities, that will put a dampener on their activities. It is very simple to understand. Therefore, not only should we deal with terrorists on a military basis, but we should disrupt their progress by cutting off and interrupting their funding lines. By doing so, we complicate their agenda. In order to do so, and to continue to do so, we have to equip ourselves. The judiciary, the law enforcement agencies, the regulators, the media, the bankers, the prosecutors, all of these groups, have to equip themselves with whatever it takes, to meet with this challenge. We have to learn from each other. We have already learnt many lessons during our own activities in this field. But, it is important that we share such knowledge and experience with others as well.

We are also particularly pleased to have with us, His Lordship the Chief Justice who has graced this occasion and by doing so has unambiguously displayed the commitment of Sri Lanka’s judiciary to this massive effort. Our effort against money laundering and terrorist financing cannot be made by one or two persons only, or by one or two agencies only. It has to be a co-ordinated and concentrated effort that needs the support of a wide range of people, both nationally and internationally. In that context, Sri Lanka’s commitment is clear to everyone, and we are particularly pleased to have you with us, the Honourable Chief Justice. My dear friends, the fight against terrorism cannot only be on the military field or battle ground. In my view, the fight has to be on four different fronts simultaneously. Although it is vitally important, one cannot defeat terrorism by a military effort only. To successfully deal with terrorism, we need a diplomatic offensive also. Diplomatically, we need to ensure that cohesive steps are taken so that, together, countries can meet this challenge. At the same time, the fight has to be on the international media front as well. Therefore, a media campaign in all parts of the world against terrorism is also very important. That is something that the world has clearly recognized today, and internationally, we see a greater coordination in the media in dealing with terrorism. The other important front in this war against terror is the stopping of financing for terrorism.
Suhaimi Ali: Future-proofing talent for a dynamic and resilient workforce Opening remarks by Mr Suhaimi Ali, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the MyDigital and Tech Roundtable Kuala Lumpur, 17 January 2023. ***  Introduction Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. A very good morning and thank you to the organisers of this MyDigital and Tech Roundtable for inviting me to deliver the opening remarks We are here today to discuss issues and ideas to spur digital-ready talent and futureproof the workforce for Malaysia. I believe this conversation is timely. As leaders in our fields, I'm sure all of us agree that staying relevant amid a shifting and competitive landscape is a top challenge for today's employees and employers. The pandemic exposed deep-rooted labour market fragilities and structural inequalities. In Malaysia, as in other countries, vulnerable segments such as low-income workers, the youth, women, ethnic minorities, informal and fixed-term workers were among the hardest hit by the crisis. Some are still finding their footing. More importantly, we are facing several structural shifts that continue to reconfigure our economy, with resulting implications on the future of work. Among the key ones that may resonate with us here today are: First, the digital and sustainability revolution. Increased adoption of technologies such as AI and IoT, coupled with rising urgency on the sustainability agenda will reshape industries. This will demand new skillsets and unlock opportunities, but also create challenges for businesses and employees. Second, shifting work preferences.

8 Beyer, R. and Smets, F. (2015), “Labour market adjustments and migration in Europe and the United States:  how different?”, Economic Policy, Vol. 30, Issue 84. 9 Dolls, M., Fuest, C., Kock, J., Peichl, A., Wehrhöfer, N. and Wittneben, C. (2015), “Automatic Stabilizers in the  Eurozone: Analysis of their Effectiveness at the Member State and Euro Area Level and in International Comparison”, Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim. 10 Beyer, R. and Smets, F. (2015), op. cit. 11 For a review of the development of this literature see Mongelli, F. (2002), “New views on optimum currency area  theory: what is EMU telling us?”, ECB Working Paper No. 138. 12 For a fuller explanation of financial risk-sharing within monetary unions, see ECB (2016), “Special Feature A:  Financial integration and risk sharing in a monetary union”, Financial Integration in Europe, May. 13 Asdrubali et al. find that financial risk-sharing in the United States increased monotonically each decade from  the 1960s to the 1990s. See Asdrubali, P., Sorensen, B. and Yosha, O., “Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963–1990”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 111, Issue 4, 1 November 1996. 14 See Hane, G. (1998), “The Banking Crises of the 1980s and Early 1990s: Summary and Implications”, in FDIC  Banking Review, Vol. 11, No 1. 15 ECB calculations based on FDIC data. The term “institution” refers to a separately chartered commercial bank  or savings institution.
Here I would like to remind you that the Banco de España has opened a public consultation process on the amendment of Circular 2/2016 on supervision and solvency this very week. The aim is to develop certain aspects of the macroprudential toolkit that legislation has made 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  available to the Banco de España. Pursuant to this legislation, the Banco de España may set limits and conditions on lending standards and other financial institution transactions, along with sectoral concentration limits. The new Circular defines the procedures for activating, deactivating and changing these measures, including the variables and parameters that the Banco de España may take into consideration to adopt a decision, the sectors that may be affected and the contractual terms or ratios that the measures may apply to. I would like to conclude by thanking the General Council of Economists for this initiative geared to young people, a group that the Banco de España considers a strategic priority in the context of the Financial Education Plan. It is a further example of how the Financial Education Plan partners, in this case the General Council of Economists, play an essential role in meeting the Plan’s objectives. We have continued to move resolutely in this direction: through partnership agreements such as those recently signed with the Ministry of Education and Vocational Training and the Ministry of Consumer Affairs; and by pressing ahead with the work avenues opened with the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation.

Can you explain the ECB’s assessment of how inflation is developing? Looking at incoming data, I would say that data are more or less in line with our expectations. But this has to be seen in a context where we had repeatedly overestimated future inflation rates. In the last years, we have repeatedly lengthened the horizon over which we would get back close to 2 percent. Mechanically updated projections suggest that the risk is present that we may again have to extend this horizon. And even if it’s slightly, it’s a repetition of a past pattern. And then you go into the question of credibility of monetary policy. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  If you observe for example, that the price people are ready to pay for protection against inflation is zero, or very low, that’s not necessarily a good signal, as it suggests that they are not convinced there’ll be inflation. And that could be related to scepticism about the ability of the central bank to influence inflation even five years ahead – which would be quite serious. You cannot just reject that. Markets might be signalling that there could be some second round effects related to the fall in oil prices. Inflation expectations would then be hit at some point. Finally they could also reflect a very pessimistic view on the future, and that’s the more secular stagnation scenario where the falls of oil prices would be more the reflection of deep structural problems in the global economy.