samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Despite significant downward corrections, it is still possible for the economy to perform below expectations, particularly towards 2021 and 2022. This could be the case if the control of the sanitary emergency and containment measures around the world need to be kept in place longer than anticipated. This could also happen if the significant financial needs of businesses and households fail to be met by the supply of credit. Such scenarios would entail solvency problems and bankruptcies of companies in the most affected sectors, with a greater loss of jobs and a slower speed of recovery for the next two years. In such case, convergence to the inflation target may require keeping the MPR at its technical minimum for a longer 6  period of time. This is reflected in the monetary policy trajectory that describes the lower part of the MPR corridor (Figure 12). Another possible scenario is that the sanitary crisis is resolved faster, and the economy restarts its normal activities sooner than expected, lending support to inflation towards late 2020 and the turn of 2021. In such a case, monetary policy could begin normalizing gradually some quarters before, i.e. consistently with the upper bound of the MPR corridor (Figure 12). Inflation could also rise if the companies’ downtime results in a large drop in the available supply of goods and services, pushing up prices. In that case, it is not evident that the MPR path has to be changed, in particular if medium-term inflation expectations continue to be aligned with the target.

Not only is this outcome unacceptable from an equity or fairness perspective, but it is also undesirable because it can increase the incentives for firms to become even bigger and more complex. Over time, this may lead to a greater number of systemically important firms and expose the financial system to greater systemic risk. This suggests that we need to maintain our focus on two goals: (1) Making the financial system more stable by reducing the degree of disruption when failures occur – that is, shrinking the size of the externalities – and by lowering the risk of failure in the first place, and (2) eliminating the artificial advantages that large, complex firms might have that create incentives for them to become bigger and more complex. One more point deserves emphasis. Only eliminating the competitive advantage of large, complex firms from the too big to fail subsidy will not necessarily make the financial system more stable. For example, consider a regime in which interventions to prevent the failure of large, systemically important firms were impossible. In that case, the funding advantage that comes from being perceived as too big to fail would be eliminated because such firms could fail putting the firm’s equity and debt holders at risk. But, this would not be a good outcome from a financial stability perspective because the failure of such firms could still be  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  catastrophic for the financial system and the economy.
Between August and October, probably on the peak moments of the last financial turbulences in the developed world, many central banks stopped the process of interest rate raises, and many also changed the direction of changes in their monetary policies to more expansive ones. In Chile, after raising MPR by 200 basis points during the first half of 2011 and stating that there were still some increases to be made, in August we moved towards a neutral stance. In October, considering the envisaged consequences of the deterioration of the international scenario, we announced that we would increase monetary impulse if we foresaw that this situation could have a negative impact on our economy. Thus, in January of this year we lowered the MPR by 25 basis points. Now we have announced that new monetary policy actions will depend both on our assessment of the effects of the international scenario on the domestic economy as well as on the evolution of the domestic economy itself. Allow me to present you our vision of what is going on in the world and how it will affect us. Particularly, to do so from a monetary policy perspective. The current international scenario The onset of 2012 has surprised us with a considerably calmer state of affairs than we expected a few months ago. The Eurozone situation is far from being solved. There are many challenges ahead, among them increasing productivity in many peripheral economies. Nonetheless, significant progress has been made.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has provided long-term liquidity to the financial sector, European leaders have placed conditions on this financing, governments have agreed on adjustment plans that seem to go in the right direction, and it seems as time has been bought to address the more structural problems that are still present in the Eurozone. Financial markets have understood this, and risk indicators and monetary conditions have improved. Consensus forecasts on world growth point to a performance of the global economy below that of 2011. Nonetheless, the degree of downward correction has diminished noticeably in the latest data. Does this mean that circumstances in developed countries have reached a point beyond which we must not expect other significant setbacks? This is not so in my opinion. Allow me to give you some background. As mentioned, the solution to the Eurozone’s problems is still far ahead. Its economy is in recession and the necessary adjustments are expensive and highly unpopular among the population. Some economies have very high unemployment and a very fragile fiscal situation. If anything, measures adopted up to now have put a firewall to isolate systemically relevant economies from greater disaster. Also, financial conditions have improved these last weeks, mainly due to the ECB’s LTRO initiative. With it, the concern over the region’s banking sector financing needs has been dealt with. However, serious fiscal and financial problems and macroeconomic imbalances continue to exist in the Eurozone. In response to high unemployment and low growth, banks’ portfolios deteriorated.
Context: the post-crisis reforms and the Covid stress The turmoil caused by the Covid-19 global pandemic has been the toughest test of the financial system since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. In a few weeks in early 2020, levels of economic activity and expectations of future economic prospects fell dramatically. Investors, corporates, banks and many households stockpiled cash and reduced their risk appetite. As a result, both risky asset prices and yields on safe assets fell (Chart 1), bank lending to businesses soared, as did provisions for expected credit losses. From Seven Moments in Spring, Speech, Andrew Hauser, June 2020. Authorities took swift and decisive actions to stabilise the system and increase the supply of cash. These included measures to enhance the availability of bank funding and liquidity, including central bank term funding; and measures to conserve capital, including strong recommendations that banks limit distributions such as dividends. 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  2  In the UK, the Monetary Policy Committee initially increased the stock of asset purchases by £ billion to a total of £ billion, and bought gilts at the fastest rate operationally possible. Similar to other jurisdictions, the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) also took steps to free up existing bank resources to enable banks to continue lending, by releasing the countercyclical buffer, freezing systemic buffer rates and by implementing an extension of the transition for new accounting provisions for expected loss to flow through to the capital framework.

At our monetary policy assessments in June and September, we indicated we would also consider selling foreign currency depending on the development of the exchange rate. Accordingly, we have sold foreign currency in recent months to ensure appropriate monetary conditions. We will also sell foreign currency in the future if this is appropriate from the monetary policy perspective. Conversely, we remain willing to buy foreign currency again if necessary, i.e. if there were to be excessive appreciation pressure. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention. I now hand over to Martin Schlegel, who will speak about the latest developments with regard to cash. Page 3/4  Berne, 15 December 2022 Thomas Jordan  News conference  Page 4/4
So far, the BNB Governing Council has adopted concepts for the work in the main areas of activity; a package of amendments to the internal rules and regulations, as well as specific measures for resource and capacity improvement. Our full participation in the institutions of the Banking Union plays an important role in consolidating the integration process. Obviously, this is a topic that will be on the agenda in the next few years and one we will have many occasions to discuss. Meanwhile, maintaining the capacity of the banking sector for continuity of lending activities will be our joint contribution to supporting each individual bank customer and the country’s economy. As during the most difficult phases of the crisis, the banking sector should be able to take on the supportive role as a source of credit in the subsequent period of recovery and growth as well. Despite today’s crisis picture, such a period may occur relatively soon. The challenges arising from COVID-19 appeared unexpectedly and the negative results in the economy manifested themselves quickly; yet overcoming the crisis may just as likely occur in the foreseeable future, if solutions are found to effectively restrict the pandemic. Let us mark the Banker’s Day in the difficult and unprecedented 2020 on such a note of hope and optimism! 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

governance and risk management  The Central Bank is ready to receive duly  framework that balances return  completed applications from eligible  objectives with prudent risk  companies, which would be submitted  management and controls, Strategic  to the Monetary Board. Continuous  Asset Allocation (SAA) for the  surveillance and on-site examinations of  international reserves, managed by  Licensed Microfinance Companies  Central Bank, has been developed and a  (LMFCs) will be conducted by the  new Investment Policy Statement has  Central Bank. We expect to maintain a  been drafted in line with it. The  constant dialogue with the LMFCs and  Investment Guidelines have been  increase awareness on regulations. reviewed to reflect the revised  While we are proposing policies and  investment criteria. plans for the financial sector, as the apex  Going forward, we expect to ensure a  financial institution in the economy, we  proper Enterprise Risk Management  also need to ensure the stability,  (ERM) Framework for the Central Bank,  continuity and safety of our own house. which involves setting up a new Risk  In particular, it is important to foster a  Governance Structure and developing  risk culture within the Central Bank as  systems and procedures to monitor  central banks are considered as the  financial and non-financial risks of the  trustee of public assets.
While this may be negative for profits and competitiveness, it currently provides a buffer and protection against any deflation risk. Second, on fiscal policy: If, following Milton Friedman’s famous statement, “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”, central banks should be able to control inflation in all circumstances. I believe this is fundamentally true. Recent experience has shown, however, that monetary policy is most efficient when operated in a supporting environment, especially as regards fiscal policy. This is often presented as a case for “cooperation” between fiscal and monetary authorities. I am not fully comfortable with this concept, as I don’t see how it fits with central banks’ independence. However, there is no denying that fiscal and monetary policies interact, more or less harmoniously. Following the crisis, concerns have been expressed on the risk of “fiscal dominance” as major central banks were engaged into large purchases of Government bonds. In the current low inflation environment, the issue is different. Depending on how they are conducted, fiscal policies can either increase or decrease the overall economic uncertainty. More uncertainty means more savings and even lower equilibrium interest rates. Through this channel, fiscal policies have the capacity to complicate the conduct of monetary policies, or, on the contrary, to make it easier. This is especially true in the Euro area, where the single monetary policy interacts with 18 (soon to be 19) national fiscal policies. There are rules and frameworks in place to reduce the uncertainty associated with this interaction.

Whether they are, or not, correctly implemented will make a big difference in our capacity to quickly return to price stability. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Likewise, the Committee rejected proposals for supplemental disclosures that would be optional under the New Accord. This has admittedly resulted in disclosure requirements that are more detailed and perhaps less elegant than a simple expression of principles might be. But perhaps supervisors can take some comfort from the physicist who recommended that “if you are out to describe the truth, leave elegance to the tailor.” Consistency of Accounting Standards and the New Basel Accord One cannot discuss transparency and market discipline without considering the mechanics through which financial data are recorded and reported. And this brings me to a final key observation raised in comment letters, namely the industry’s position that if we are to leverage market discipline through better reporting, the Committee should clarify the differences between accounting standards and supervisory objectives. Numerous institutions have called on the Committee to continue to align the regulatory framework more closely with the converging standards in accounting worldwide. Many industry representatives have noted quite correctly that a greater degree of accordance is warranted especially now that the New Basel Accord includes explicit disclosure requirements intended to promote greater insight into a bank’s risk profile. Likewise, the Basel Committee’s treatment of provisions and the valuation of financial instruments must keep pace with changes in the relevant accounting standards.

Currently, 18 currencies are allowed to settle through CLS. The CBC along with CLS and the banking sector are working to make the CLP the 19th currency of this system. In addition to acting in accordance with its financial stability mandate and contributing to the development of the Chilean financial sector, the promotion of this initiative further support the internationalization of the CLP. Page 16 of 20  Central Bank of Chile September 2019  The reduction of settlement risk of the FX transactions through a PvP settlement in CLS is just one of the benefits of the system. Moreover, CLS reduce the liquidity needs of its participants through the use of multilateral netting, and enhance confidence, particularly in times of financial stress. From a more general perspective, a satisfactory CLS due diligence process along with a broad international participation trading in the CLP, will be a strong signal of the development and competitiveness of the Chilean financial markets. The process for the Chilean peso to become the first South American currency on CLS has started. Last July, we received the visit of CLS executives who had conversations with market participants and fruitful discussions at the CBC. After that visit, CLS and the CBC started the due diligence process. During this phase, the actions from the public and private sectors are essential. Nevertheless, a successful process should not be over before the end of 2021.
But serious thinking and a willingness to contemplate radical change will be necessary. BIS Review 36/2008  3

I have noted from the programme, with excitement, that in addition to the presentation on the Process of Product Development by Microsave, there will be several presentations on the experiences of different institutions from various countries. In this regard, it is our sincere hope that these experiences will not only provide a rich learning ground to upcoming microfinance institutions to enable them establish themselves in the market, but also that these experiences will enable established microfinance institutions to consolidate their positions in the market. Invited Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, As you may all be aware the microfinance industry has emerged to meet the financial needs of people who have had limited or no access to the traditional sources of credit and other financial services. Lack of credit facilities, rural and agricultural finance is one of the major contributing factors to the poverty of this rather large segment of our populations. Microfinance institutions are and can be efficient and effective channels for mobilizing savings, credit, in-country remittances, and insurance services to lower-income people, particularly in those areas where traditional financial services are hardly there or do not exist. Microfinance is also increasingly being seen as an effective tool for poverty reduction. Moreover, when microfinance is provided in an environment where there are sufficient alternatives for diversified household income generation, and where access to information, appropriate physical infrastructure, and integrity in loan repayments are present, can be and it is a key success factor in reducing poverty.
Your Excellency, Honourable Ministers in order to insulate the financial system from external influences like the financial turmoil currently being experienced in some Western countries, the Bank has been working on a macro prudential approach to supervision of the financial system. Macro prudential analysis looks at the health of the underlying financial institutions in the system and performs stress tests and scenario analysis to help determine the system's sensitivity to economic shocks. This analysis also looks at macroeconomic data including GDP growth rates, inflation, interest rates, balance of payments, exchange rates, asset prices and the correlation of markets within the system. Distinguished guests, I am advised that Access Bank comes with a bouquet of banking products and excellent services, aimed at enhancing the quality of lives of Zambians and the economy in general. I urge management to remain committed to ethical standards and see themselves as a Zambian bank because you are indeed a Zambian bank now. Based on our inquiries, the Bank has a strong heritage and history of performance that will positively contribute to the health of the financial sector in Zambia. Your Excellency, Honourable Ministers, It is also exciting that the bank we are commissioning today is coming to Zambia in the context of pan-Africanism. This is an African bank investing in another African country, a demonstration of South to South cooperation. It is such investments that will accelerate the pace of the much needed economic integration in Africa.

Christian Noyer: Challenges of financial innovation for the conduct of monetary policy Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, at the International Monetary Fund-Bank of France-Bank of England Conference, Paris, 29 January 2008. *  *  *  The current financial turmoil is here to remind us that financial innovation, like technical innovation, is not a smooth process. The flip side of the recent years of exuberant financial innovation, what might be seen in retrospect as the golden age of structured finance, comes now to the fore. However, after two or more decades in which major, multi-faceted financial innovation has brought about far-reaching changes in the global economic environment, it would be unfair to forget the benefits economic agents have collectively reaped from tools that are fundamentally aimed at allowing an easier and broader access to funding and a more efficient risk allocation. I am delighted to co-introduce this conference which will tackle some major issues. Rather than giving an exhaustive overview of the nature and magnitude of financial innovation, I think it more useful here, as a central banker, to focus on how financial innovation affects monetary policy decision-making. I know this seminar will dig further into some of these issues but I selected two main issues, whose scope goes beyond the current events: -  firstly, how the last wave of financial innovation has affected the monetary transmission process of monetary policy.
Households and companies may feel growing uncertainty both about developments in public revenues and expenditure, and about the formulation of monetary policy. This can be costly for the economy if it leads to a failure to carry out investments and to unnecessarily cautious decisions about the allocation of resources. To sum up, then, it becomes more costly to pursue an excessively expansive fiscal policy when monetary policy is guided by an explicit inflation target. A good policy mix makes for better conditions A better policy mix arises if the orientation of fiscal policy does not make for higher inflation risk premiums. It can avoid this if the orientation of fiscal policy appears to be sustainable in the long run. The surplus-target in the public finances is a good example of this. One means by which the confidence felt by the general public in economic policy can be monitored consists of inflation expectations, which should not diverge substantially from the Riksbank’s inflation target. When expectations of inflation diverge from this target in the longer term - whether upwards or downwards - it implies that monetary policy should be adjusted so as to steer expectations back towards the target. In this connection it is important to observe that a central bank whose inflation target commands high credibility often has more scope for acting than one that has little credibility. Assume, for example, that an economy where the credibility of the inflation target is high experiences a positive disturbance to the business cycle, leading to higher demand.

Finally, I would like to draw your attention to another topic. It concerns the future, - the development of financial technologies - and it is a topic today beingdiscussed widely. The development of financial technologies has become a point of regular discussion in the partnership of financial institutions and banks with the regulator. We are aware that growth of such technologies allows banks and other financial institutions to improve their efficiency, enter new market segments, and develop customer products and services. However, there is another reason to take a closer look at fintech - for it is these technologies that may rapidly alter the banking environment and all of you need to take it into account that new technologies are developing very quickly and may impact on your business. We should be prepared for such an alteration. Otherwise new actors may oust conventional banks from the market. We are interested in developing financial technologies because they are convenient for people and for businesses, but at the same time we do not want the explosive growth in technologies to result in an increase in cyberattacks and cyberfraud. The Bank of Russia is focused on this issue. We have established both a centre for the development of financial technology and a centre for monitoring and response to cyberattacks in the financial sector.